In Idaho, GOP Incumbent Sees Wide Lead Erode

IDAHO FALLS, Idaho—Gov. C.L. "Butch" Otter shouldn't have many worries about re-election, being a Republican in a staunchly conservative state as the GOP is on the march nationally.

But thanks in part to anti-incumbent sentiment, Democratic challenger Keith Allred has been steadily chipping away at Mr. Otter's wide lead in the polls. The former Harvard professor has raised more money than the governor and has drawn some GOP defectors to his side.

While few pundits expect Mr. Otter to lose, they say his opponent is proving surprisingly strong in a state that last elected a Democratic governor 20 years ago. "Is Otter the favorite? Sure," said Gary Moncrief, a political science-professor at Boise State University. "Is it a slam-dunk? No."

Mr. Otter led Mr. Allred by 17 percentage points as of July 21, down from 32 points in March, according to Rasmussen Reports polls. And Mr. Allred outraised the governor $360,000 to $289,000 this year as of June 4.

Mr. Allred, 45 years old, is still a long shot to unseat Mr. Otter, 68, a former congressman and manager for the late potato magnate J.R. Simplot. With his cowboy hat and boots, Mr. Otter is especially popular in rural Idaho. At a Fourth of July parade here, the competitive calf roper and his wife, Lori, waved to cheering crowds from atop horses. "He's a down-to-earth guy, someone you could meet on the street," said 48-year-old Joel Duling, a scientist at the nearby Idaho National Laboratory.

Still, recent events have given Idaho Democrats a bit more confidence. In 2008, Democrat Walt Minnick, a former timber executive, defeated a Republican for a House seat. Political observers say his GOP challenger is likely to have a tough time beating Mr. Minnick in November. "[Mr. Minnick] is a Blue-Dog Democrat, conservative on fiscal issues, and that's popular here," said Jim Weatherby, emeritus professor of public policy at Boise State University.

Meanwhile, Mr. Otter's popularity has slipped as Idaho's once-robust economy has tanked. In particular, Idaho has been hard-hit by a steep downturn in the technology sector that had driven much of its growth, resulting in unemployment of 8.8% in July. While still below the 9.5% national average, that is one of the highest rates in the Rocky Mountain region.

Mr. Allred, founder of a Boise nonprofit called Common Interest which seeks bipartisan consensus on state issues. says the state's Democratic Party asked him to run in November, even though he is a longtime independent. Mr. Allred says he wants to help restore job growth by promoting high-tech industries; Mr. Otter, he says, has favored older industries like forestry and mining. Mr. Allred also says he wants to pursue a bipartisan approach, as opposed to what he calls the noncollaborative style of the governor.

The governor says he does back tech. His chief advantage over Mr. Allred, he adds, is his governing experience. "The difference between Keith and I," said Mr. Otter, "is I have done it."

Like in other slumping states, Idaho's fall-off in tax revenue has forced Mr. Otter to make unpopular decisions. Last year, he cut K-12 education funding 7.5% while slashing the Department of Parks and Recreation budget 77% and calling for a higher gas tax and new fees on cars and pickup trucks.

The parks cutbacks anger Democrats and Republicans in places such as Island Park, a resort town near Yellowstone National Park that depends on tourism in destinations like nearby Harriman State Park.

"I have never been impressed with Butch Otter, but have been super impressed with this man," Mike Lawson, a Republican and fly-fishing outfitter, said as Mr. Allred toured the 11,000-acre Harriman park in early July.

The GOP-run legislature in 2009 blocked Mr. Otter's tax and fee increases—moves the governor says were needed to help repair highways around Idaho, and Mr. Otter retaliated by vetoing more than 30 budget bills.

The feuding helped send some Republicans to Mr. Allred's corner. "I just think it would be good to have a new kind of leadership in Idaho," said John Hansen, a Republican attorney and former state senator here who switched his allegiance to Mr. Allred in early July.

The governor defends his actions. "We had to make some pretty serious decisions," Mr. Otter said.

Idaho voters have largely supported some of the governor's other moves, such as when he gained national attention after signing a law in March that requires the state to sue the federal government to block implementation of President Barack Obama's health-care program in the state. So far, Idaho hasn't filed a suit.

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