The Canadian TechnicianStockCharts.comExpert market commentary from StockCharts.comtag:stockcharts.com,2019-04-18:blog-102020-06-05T05:47:27ZA Market Expansion Kicks Into High GearGreg Schnelltag:stockcharts.com,2020-06-05:post-197122020-06-05T05:47:26Z2020-06-05T04:38:13Z<p>Stocks continue to push up and, on Thursday, the NASDAQ made a new intraday high. As I have mentioned on the <em>Market Buzz</em> show, it is always important to watch how a market moves as it goes through a prior high. There is no real method of determining what investors will do at the prior high until the price action occurs. While tech names have been the big leaders coming out of the hole, the breadth of the market has been expanding as the euphoria around the tech names has been mellowing of late. </p><p>This mellowing can be seen as the relative strength uptrend compared to the $SPX has shown these big leaders are not continuing to outperform the broader index. This is always an important check point, as, in this particular case, it does seem that the investors are rotating into a broad cross section of new names and away from the big names.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2020/06/04/74ccfba5-4d55-4a9a-8b72-12fa47e3640f.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NDX&amp;p=D&amp;st=2019-03-11&amp;i=p92993014814&amp;a=764956348')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>As the $SPX continues higher, if the Nasdaq starts to underperform here, we'll need to watch to see if it starts causing other areas of the market to come under selling pressure.</p><p>Currently, my breadth measures suggest the market is firing on all cylinders. In looking at these measures, it is important to keep context that perhaps the big names were overbought, and now some of the buying pressure can move to other names in financials, industrials, metals, etc.</p><p>On the Industrial sector chart below, we are seeing the opposite reaction to that of the Nasdaq 100 relative strength. The purple area has broken the down-sloping trend line and is breaking to the upside. It is this sector rotation that gives us the opportunity to find some nice moving areas of the market while the big tech names stall a little. </p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2020/06/04/aeb6f2ce-f198-4e3f-98f2-5fc504354711.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLI&amp;p=D&amp;st=2019-03-11&amp;i=p60173869486&amp;a=764959626')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>In the chart below, I show all of the mega cap names that have been the horsemen off the lows.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2020/06/04/68411772-192c-47f5-b59d-9774ace6be53.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AMZN&amp;p=D&amp;st=2019-11-12&amp;i=p61914659834&amp;a=745169212')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>We are seeing all of these charts struggle to break out to new highs. So, as this market continues to push higher, it will be with different names, apparently, than the ones that have been leading. For investors, it is important to take this change and adapt. </p><p>If you missed my <em>Market Buzz</em> about testing old highs, you can catch that here.</p><div class="embed-responsive embed-responsive-16by9"><iframe class="embed-responsive-item" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/UWlhR_1sCJc" frameborder="0" width="640" height="360" allow="accelerometer;autoplay;encrypted-media;gyroscope;picture-in-picture;" allowfullscreen="true"></iframe></div><p><em><span class="image-caption">Market Buzz (5/27/20)</span></em></p><p><br></p>Stocks continue to push up and, on Thursday, the NASDAQ made a new intraday high. As I have mentioned on the Market Buzz show, it is always important to watch how a market moves as it goes through a prior high. There is no real method of determining what investors will do at the prior high until the price action occurs. While tech names have been the big leaders coming out of the hole, the breadth of the market has been expanding as the euphoria around the tech names has been mellowing of late. This mellowing can be seen as the relative strength uptrend compared to the $SPX has shown these...Going Through Individual Charts Suggests This Is What Next!Greg Schnelltag:stockcharts.com,2020-05-26:post-196362020-05-26T17:57:12Z2020-05-26T05:32:38Z<p>The market has been trapped in a sideways area for the last 7 weeks. Since April 6th, the market has worked a range between 2750 and 2950. This week, it tried to break out topside and ended up closing back near the top end of the range. Below is a 1-hour chart of $SPX showing the breakout:</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2020/05/22/e6fb5c6f-4745-47f3-9649-c853f836f937.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&amp;p=60&amp;yr=0&amp;mn=1&amp;dy=20&amp;i=p36240260756&amp;a=758957484')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>There were lots of stocks breaking out from bases or to new all-time highs this week. After last week's threat of weakness, this surge is nice. It looks like the transports are joining the move as well. The trucking index ($DJUSTK) closed at the highest weekly level in years. The line is at the highest prior close; it has stalled at this level 3 times before. If it can't continue, this is an important place to watch for another rejection. It would probably clue us in to mark a top that suggests the economy is too weak to support higher levels for the truckers. Get some popcorn - we are nearing the dramatic climax where we'll see if the uptrend starts to break out and hold above this consolidation. </p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2020/05/25/cfd64592-d0f5-4183-a0b8-183a1b79d955.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24DJUSTK&amp;p=W&amp;yr=2&amp;mn=3&amp;dy=0&amp;i=p54645422784&amp;a=760015108')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Seeing the transports break out is very promising. For moving large quantities of industrial goods, the railways ($DJUSRR) should also break out. While they are not as advanced in price as the truckers, there are some very promising signs. This week should be conclusive regarding whether the rails are going to start to outperform the $SPX, which would be something associated with a new uptrend. From my work, I have noticed that, during bigger advances, the rails also start to outperform the $SPX. This shows up on the chart below, with the purple area breaking the downtrend line and continuing to move in an uptrend. That started to happen last week, so this is an important place to watch. You can click on the chart to check on it in the future.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2020/05/25/47bee7ec-0f49-4790-859d-4f46c9924acd.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24DJUSRR&amp;p=W&amp;yr=2&amp;mn=3&amp;dy=0&amp;i=p90753184700&amp;a=760015397')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>There are a few other important clues this week on the railway chart above. The PPO momentum indicator gave us a positive crossing signal. If the full stochastic can start to accelerate higher, that would be good. Bear market rallies usually find the full stochastic fails near the 50% level, so a break above that is helpful. (Now would be good!)</p><p>Price is also trapped under the 40-week moving average. On the left side, it was support for most of the time on the way up. We do not want it to become the resistance layer now. </p><p>The industrials (XLI) have had a stormy few weeks. It looked like they were set to break out, only to fail two weeks ago as they closed below the 10-week moving average and the chart looked very weak. Then, this week, they rallied past the 10-week and broke the downtrend on the relative strength compared to the $SPX. The chart still needs to improve a lot more, but if this rally is going to broaden out to more than the tech and biotech areas, the industrials should start kicking it up.</p><p>If the SCTR ranking could start to surge above 30, that would be another clue the weakness was fading and the broader markets were going to be supported by these major employers. The full stochastic is still very weak at 40%, so that needs a good swift kick to mobilize it. This stochastic will move up if the price starts moving up aggressively, compared to the price range over the last 14 weeks. Because the price is so low and nowhere near the top half of that range, the stochastic has remained below the 50% level. With big companies like Boeing (BA) and General Electric (GE) holding the industry back, it is easy to understand the issues. The question now is can it turn and help the rally?</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2020/05/25/cc462782-e925-4769-b0b5-cc01c779fc95.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLI&amp;p=W&amp;yr=2&amp;mn=3&amp;dy=0&amp;i=p85957739155&amp;a=760017036')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>So it is early days for the industrials, but the transports are starting to signal that things are better. In order for the Charles Dow confirmation, both of these chart types (transports and industrials) need to move higher together. </p><p>We all know that tech has been the rallying area of the market. But, eventually, even regular buyers start to wonder about the significant weakness in the rest of the market. I am looking for these other groups to start accelerating. Energy continues to work higher and the banks still have a bad hangover. None of the bank charts are particularly exciting. If they can't get going, eventually this market stalls and we roll back down. </p><p>With thousands of stocks up more than 5% last week in North America, it was a pretty bullish thrust even though the indexes had a good week, but not as bullish as 5%.</p><p>It looks like the futures are going to push the $SPX above the 200-day moving average to start the week. The important information is whether we can hold that into next Monday and keep the rally going. As stocks move above the 200-day moving average, that is a place where a lot of institutions will start adding to positions. Until then, they remain cautious. This could be the start of the next leg higher, or we could fail to hold above the 200 DMA and fall away. That would be a problem after the weakness we saw in the preceding week. It is now that the followthrough should show up.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2020/05/25/9638ccef-8db1-4249-95fc-5a08e04dd26d.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&amp;p=D&amp;st=2019-03-11&amp;i=p21967366937&amp;a=760020589')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Stay informed. This is a very important week to be chart watchful!</p><p><br></p>The market has been trapped in a sideways area for the last 7 weeks. Since April 6th, the market has worked a range between 2750 and 2950. This week, it tried to break out topside and ended up closing back near the top end of the range. Below is a 1-hour chart of $SPX showing the breakout:There were lots of stocks breaking out from bases or to new all-time highs this week. After last week's threat of weakness, this surge is nice. It looks like the transports are joining the move as well. The trucking index ($DJUSTK) closed at the highest weekly level in years. The line is at the highest...Are Your Banks Holding You Up?Greg Schnelltag:stockcharts.com,2020-05-12:post-195552020-05-12T15:42:40Z2020-05-12T06:19:17Z<p>US banks took a bit of a hit Monday, as we saw some meaningful selling on high volume. The charts for some of the North American bank industry are holding up, but other banks around the world are barely holding above the lows. One of the magic messages for investors is that we can see what the other investors are thinking about banking companies as the pandemic takes on the world.</p><p>So I'll walk through the charts through Europe and then the USA, and you can decide where you think the problems lie. These companies are also traded in the US, so we have a consistent currency. </p><p>Let's start in London, England with HSBC (HSBC), headquartered on Canary Wharf. This chart made its low April 2nd, which was a full 10 days after the $SPX made its low. The chart tested the prior low recently on May 1, getting within $1 of the lows. </p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2020/05/11/5b209b22-7e7f-4189-ace3-26927d4ec7df.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HSBC&amp;p=D&amp;yr=0&amp;mn=6&amp;dy=10&amp;i=p16377738785&amp;a=752952135')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Continuing on, Barclays (BCS) is also in London. Barclays' chart looks a lot stronger than the HSBC chart above. BCS bounced before the $SPX bounced, which is usually a sign of some strength. One of the other concerns on this chart is just the actual low price of the stock. A major world bank down at $3.50 isn't exactly a tower of power. But this back has rallied a full 50% off the lows, which is more than the $SPX at 35%. This Barclays chart also has a PPO above zero, which is a hint that there is more momentum in this name than the other British banks.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2020/05/11/faa68c6e-cadd-4569-9f2f-755a9b801c79.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BCS&amp;p=D&amp;yr=0&amp;mn=6&amp;dy=0&amp;i=p10771532077&amp;a=752956650')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Lloyds (LYG) of London is a world-famous brand with a stock trading barely above a $1.00. Almost miraculous. This stock also bottomed later on April 3rd. As it is trending a little higher, it is not exactly the resilient bounce we would like to see. The trend line needs to hold here, but it is so close to the lows that we will probably see a test of them on this chart before summer. </p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2020/05/11/839f65a7-0ed3-49e2-8882-c61e9701a7ed.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=LYG&amp;p=D&amp;yr=0&amp;mn=6&amp;dy=0&amp;i=p81496520401&amp;a=752961641')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>The last of the UK banks is Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS). This stock bounced with the $SPX on the 23rd and it is above the 20-day moving average. Not a huge compliment, but it is not the worst of the pack. The pennant is well-formed. The question is: is it a continuation pennant or a reversal to start the move higher?</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2020/05/11/48ce9902-979b-412f-bf7c-bf9ece4b54cf.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RBS&amp;p=D&amp;yr=0&amp;mn=6&amp;dy=0&amp;i=p13218334759&amp;a=752965811')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Rolling into France through the Chunnel, we find three banks. First is Society Generale (SCGLY). The problems on this chart are numerous. The chart has a $2 price handle, which suggests weakness compared to J.P. Morgan (JPM) over $90. As a relative measure, that low price demonstrates weakness. This chart dropped 60% off the highs and tested the lows as recently as Monday. Descending triangles usually continue to test the base and finally fall through. I would expect that this chart does not hold up if the markets were to make another roll over as we head into the 2nd half of a weak 2nd quarter. It looks pretty shaky.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2020/05/11/c6f72630-85cb-4d30-b024-27884929136d.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SCGLY&amp;p=D&amp;yr=0&amp;mn=6&amp;dy=0&amp;i=p42780655977&amp;a=752968676')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Credit Agricole (CRARY) looks significantly better than Societe Generale's price action. At least there is a series of rising lows. I placed a horizontal top line as both moves above it were immediately reversed. Price closed at the 20-day moving average but was down again on a flat day for the $SPX. This continual underperformance does not give me hope.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2020/05/11/97138230-e43a-40f0-846b-f6a06074b743.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CRARY&amp;p=D&amp;yr=0&amp;mn=6&amp;dy=0&amp;i=p07618120665&amp;a=752969351')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>BNP Paribas (BNPQY) rounds out the French banks. All three of these banks have a weak PPO indicator that has not made it above zero, but BNP looks average compared to the other two. Price closed at the 20-DMA, but it does have a series of higher lows over the last three weeks. </p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2020/05/11/b26c91be-149b-46f8-8ec1-e243d4e6d580.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BNPQY&amp;p=D&amp;yr=0&amp;mn=6&amp;dy=0&amp;i=p18003934562&amp;a=752972148')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Moving on to Germany, Commerzbank (CRZBY) is spending more time near the bottom of the pennant than the top, but it does have a series of rising lows and it did make its low a full week before the $SPX. </p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2020/05/11/dc29ecf9-edf6-4ea3-9bd4-77e67477d311.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CRZBY&amp;p=D&amp;yr=0&amp;mn=6&amp;dy=0&amp;i=p71284213101&amp;a=752972384')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Deutsche Bank (DB) is one that we hear a lot about because of its derivative book. Of all the charts so far, this one has a defined uptrend, bounced earlier on Monday March 16th, and has actually created a channel of higher lows and higher highs. The PPO momentum is now above zero, and this chart is a pleasant surprise. The stock fell 60%, so it will need a rally of 125% to get back to its highs. At this point, it is up 40% off the lows. </p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2020/05/11/c342f80a-b739-4a7f-ad89-93ebc5b3e486.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DB&amp;p=D&amp;yr=0&amp;mn=6&amp;dy=0&amp;i=p04275031616&amp;a=752972900')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Let's take a quick look at Italy. Intesa Sanpaolo (ISNPY) made a low on April 21, which is the lowest low on the chart. While the price is hovering around the 20-DMA green line, so far the trend looks pretty weak. The positive observation is that it has not tested its April lows in May yet. </p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2020/05/11/b7d9bf9b-0ddc-4eb2-a5a4-a0c2bc608465.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ISNPY&amp;p=D&amp;yr=0&amp;mn=6&amp;dy=0&amp;i=p60154923649&amp;a=752974255')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Banco Santander (SAN) out of Spain is one of the weakest charts we have seen. First of all, the $2 price tag is a clue, but the chart keeps pushing the lower boundary as recently as Monday. The stock is still below the 20-DMA and looks weak. </p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2020/05/11/2805930e-523a-43d8-a3e0-9221113c497a.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SAN&amp;p=D&amp;yr=0&amp;mn=6&amp;dy=0&amp;i=p22505784339&amp;a=752975143')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>So a quick trip around Europe, without the need for a massive review of a lot of the financial statements, give us a clue to which companies and countries are weak. </p><p>Obviously, JPM is the big stable force in American banking. But the chart Monday, with soaring volume on a large down day (2.9%) after breaking the uptrend, looks more difficult. The $SPX was flat on the day. As the big leader, that chart is not as bad as the charts above, but the volume and the broken uptrend start to add concern that the stock might not be able to stay above the one month lows. It's an important time to watch.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2020/05/11/ce82c689-dc91-4185-9624-d1ef8f290118.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JPM&amp;p=D&amp;yr=0&amp;mn=6&amp;dy=0&amp;i=p70575607240&amp;a=752975441')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Citi (C) had a horrific fall off the top. It was one of the banks that dropped the most; $82 to $32 is a long road down and an even bigger road back. While Citi is trending higher, it also had extreme volume on a flat day for the $SPX and the stock was down 5%. Ouch. </p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2020/05/11/565edaf3-2929-411a-81af-a6d1b72c7ccc.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=C&amp;p=D&amp;yr=0&amp;mn=6&amp;dy=0&amp;i=p22565681351&amp;a=752976303')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Bank of America (BAC) dropped in 1/2 from the top of the chart. The horizontal PPO indicator in the lower panel suggests momentum is waning at zero. Like JPM, the stock is breaking the uptrend now and is stalling around the 20-DMA. This is the second down candle in a few days below the uptrend, suggesting the market is doubting the uptrend. The fact that JPM is breaking the uptrend as well adds to the concern. </p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2020/05/11/5290be65-f914-4c08-9590-e7c221eca44f.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BAC&amp;p=D&amp;yr=0&amp;mn=6&amp;dy=0&amp;i=p58246044245&amp;a=752976758')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Wells Fargo (WFC) is a mess, actually. The chart continues to test the lows and the volume is piling up, suggesting more concerns here. </p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2020/05/11/787da7fb-d5eb-458b-aab8-d12c646cb4bc.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=WFC&amp;p=D&amp;yr=0&amp;mn=6&amp;dy=0&amp;i=p10898493559&amp;a=752977230')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>By reviewing the European vs. American banks, we can quickly see where the hotspots are in the banking sector. The banks around the world that are struggling to hold their current lows look worrisome. Having the stronger US banks start to break the uptrends is not comforting either. I think the real dilemma here is the number of European banks that are testing the lows. If you want to go check these banks out in the future, you can click on the charts and they will update.</p><p>All that to say, the week I really wanted to see the banks turn higher, the US banks are starting to slip. While they are clearly not the weakest, the European situation has numerous banks sitting near their lows. Conversely, if it was just a weak Monday and we march through the week with strength, that broadening trend of financials starting to respond to all the stimulus would be welcome news.</p><p>Don't lose sight of this article, as the banks could be a signal for the market to start moving higher if they can find support. It would be nice if they start accelerating here. If they don't, stay aware of the other industry groups that are starting to weaken. If you want to go check these banks out in the future, you can click on the charts and they will update.</p>US banks took a bit of a hit Monday, as we saw some meaningful selling on high volume. The charts for some of the North American bank industry are holding up, but other banks around the world are barely holding above the lows. One of the magic messages for investors is that we can see what the other investors are thinking about banking companies as the pandemic takes on the world.So I'll walk through the charts through Europe and then the USA, and you can decide where you think the problems lie. These companies are also traded in the US, so we have a consistent currency. Let's start in...Little Known Communications Tech Names Hit New HighsGreg Schnelltag:stockcharts.com,2020-05-06:post-195172020-05-06T20:13:05Z2020-05-06T19:13:37Z<p>After the mega-caps announced earnings, the crowd continues to drift towards those names. I was scanning through the May - new highs list - and found a few gems that are just breaking out. I used the phrase "little known," but they are gaining interest quickly.</p><p>Audiocode (AUDC - <a href="https://www.audiocodes.com/solutions-products" target="_blank">follow this link to learn more</a>) looks a little extended after a double off the $17 area. With the rising keltner channel or the 20-day moving average, there might be a better entry there. This voice technology area seems to be soaring. </p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2020/05/06/b7440c25-0858-4984-9cac-9370d2792216.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AUDC&amp;p=D&amp;yr=0&amp;mn=2&amp;dy=10&amp;i=p52268989256&amp;a=749829375')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Bandwidth (BAND) is another play in voice communications. (<a href="https://www.bandwidth.com/" target="_blank">Follow this link for more information.</a>) The stock has already launched significantly here and many investors will be looking for a little market weakness to find an entry. This one is another watchlist name, as it is too extended to enter here, in my opinion.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2020/05/06/180b0c49-64c6-4dcd-85f2-3e920068cfd3.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BAND&amp;p=D&amp;yr=0&amp;mn=2&amp;dy=10&amp;i=p17128030428&amp;a=749837834')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>When I see these software names so strong, then look across at TEAM, WORK and MSFT, the whole home office concept is going to be the single biggest game changer on the back end of this pandemic. As we are forced to use the technologies that have been building over the last twenty years, the backbone is in place for transformational change. Even a few years ago, the low internet speeds at home would not have been enough for seamless communications. Now, the change is as radical as asking if television networks will continue to have the hosts broadcast from home. It really is a changing world and we now have this massive developing theme less than 2 months after stocks hit bottom in March. There are new names emerging all the time. </p><p>As this theme rolls out, it should be a significant one to watch. For more information, watch <a href="https://stockcharts.com/tv/episodes/market-buzz.html" target="_blank">my YouTube shows on StockCharts.com</a> and follow me on Twitter (@Schnellinvestor) for other ideas.</p>After the mega-caps announced earnings, the crowd continues to drift towards those names. I was scanning through the May - new highs list - and found a few gems that are just breaking out. I used the phrase "little known," but they are gaining interest quickly.Audiocode (AUDC - follow this link to learn more) looks a little extended after a double off the $17 area. With the rising keltner channel or the 20-day moving average, there might be a better entry there. This voice technology area seems to be soaring. Bandwidth (BAND) is another play in voice communications. (Follow this link for...Buffalo Run on the BanksGreg Schnelltag:stockcharts.com,2020-04-28:post-194582020-04-28T20:22:47Z2020-04-28T19:56:44Z<p>The financials are a large component of the $SPX, but the broader market has stepped higher while the bank industry has been on hold since the big banks started reporting the week of April 13th. Much like buffaloes running around a rub rock, it seems the banks are racing ahead in circles before another Fed meeting. </p><p>The banks have caught a breath of fresh air, with strong surges two days in a row. With all the hot sauce the Fed poured on the financial sector, it's a wonder they ever paused. </p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2020/04/28/3096497f-558f-4c3d-ac05-84dd01da5a54.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=KBE&amp;p=D&amp;st=2020-02-11&amp;i=p97676732568&amp;a=744895033')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>The enthusiasm over the last two days has been a stunning addition to the overall market gains. While tech seems to be pausing or topping out, the bank rally has to be considered a surprise, with month-end mortgage payment data and credit card payment data expected to be light. Into the fear of the unknown, banks rally like there is no tomorrow. </p><p>I also noticed insurance stocks gaining this week as well. Some insurance names showed up on my scanner on Friday, but the rally gun fired off on Monday morning.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2020/04/28/758edc53-21e1-43f2-8e27-3e1343a0bf17.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=KIE&amp;p=D&amp;st=2020-02-11&amp;i=p27568986318&amp;a=744902206')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Next, we have the broker dealers and the exchanges ETF (IAI). It is also trying to break out to the topside. </p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2020/04/28/6e6703d6-c9e2-4007-9f07-607b17a1eea8.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IAI&amp;p=D&amp;st=2020-02-11&amp;i=p96414662421&amp;a=744904140')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>While there are other groups in the financial sector, those shown above are all sitting at resistance now.</p><p>After the $8 trillion, is there more upside? It would seem worthy of rewinding the tape on the Fed actions.</p><p>Back in February, the Fed started lowering interest rates to be "supportive" for the economy, but did not see any problems ahead. With cuts continuing into the new year, the market soared to new highs. In March, as COVID was firing up, the Fed unleashed a rate cut between meetings that had lots of TV commentary wondering why they moved so early and generously. Fed members talked softly about keeping the economy firm and strong. Still, within March, the Fed launched trillions in programs and cancelled their March meeting. As April rolled in, the Fed committed to buying corporate junk bonds as well. </p><p>To me, this had the effect of setting a table with zero downside. With every market comes a surprise. The biggest surprise for me was not the Fed action. In a few of my subscriber videos, I posted a note I wrote from one of my 2012 chart notes:</p><p><span class="image-caption">"February 3, 2012: If the Fed is announcing some sort of fiscal measure in concert with other world banks or special arrangements, get long the market...be it Christmas, Thanksgiving, July...just get long the market at the lows."</span></p><p>Or, the market was spectacularly undervalued in September at 3.5% unemployment when the Fed started to reduce rates toward zero. As the world tries to go back to work, the market is already priced at where it was before the rate cuts started.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2020/04/28/9cbf0278-2905-4590-8f83-18b839791c1a.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24INDU&amp;p=D&amp;st=2019-03-11&amp;i=p92319614220')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>For me, it does seem like we are trading on thin ice, not the firm packed soil of a buffalo run. As everyone is now convinced we are going to rally further as the economy opens up, it seems the opposite to me. Buy the rumour, sell the news. With the news of the economy opening back up and the lead names stalling, it seems that selling the news could be the better strategy. </p><p>One of my fellow traders just announced we are back in a bull market with lots of fed support. Buy every dip!</p><p>I'll let you decide whose right. But there is nothing wrong with being nimble and cautious! Let me leave you with another quote from myself in 2012:</p><blockquote>"One more piece of advice. If the $VIX has fallen for one or two months without staying above the BB centre line for more than a week, the market may pull back, but it will go higher before making a final top. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO MAKE THE ULTIMATE SHORT TRADE."</blockquote>The financials are a large component of the $SPX, but the broader market has stepped higher while the bank industry has been on hold since the big banks started reporting the week of April 13th. Much like buffaloes running around a rub rock, it seems the banks are racing ahead in circles before another Fed meeting. The banks have caught a breath of fresh air, with strong surges two days in a row. With all the hot sauce the Fed poured on the financial sector, it's a wonder they ever paused. The enthusiasm over the last two days has been a stunning addition to the overall market gains. While...Tesla & The World OrderGreg Schnelltag:stockcharts.com,2020-04-16:post-193682020-04-16T06:58:54Z2020-04-16T05:43:27Z<p>This week has already been remarkable with the leadership of Amazon (AMZN) and Netflix (NFLX). I think we can imagine that Amazon is becoming even more dominant with their reach and delivery systems. Netflix, meanwhile, has seen a huge jump in app downloads, and we probably all know some resistant friends that have joined the binge.</p><p>On <a href="https://youtu.be/ZdARMRMaP8w" target="_blank">this week's </a><a href="https://youtu.be/ZdARMRMaP8w" target="_blank"><em>Market Buzz</em></a>, I covered off some of the stocks that are already breaking out to new highs. One of the benefits of finding stocks already at new highs after a market correction is that all the owners are happy to own them and not really looking to sell, as the stock is a bright spot in their portfolio.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2020/04/15/fa6b968c-ce40-49bb-9af4-380cf5f51c9c.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AMZN&amp;p=W&amp;yr=3&amp;mn=0&amp;dy=0&amp;i=p45154963643&amp;a=738963998')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>The chart of Netflix is just as appealing.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2020/04/15/6d0bf278-ad48-4abc-b2a4-7ca527b7a184.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NFLX&amp;p=W&amp;yr=3&amp;mn=0&amp;dy=0&amp;i=p95761253486&amp;a=738966307')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>This simple scan can help find big winners as they break out to new highs. In the example below, it looks for new highs on the Nasdaq, but can be altered to look for new highs on the NYSE as well.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2020/04/15/a0fb1822-0ae2-42d6-8620-254b112a7f6e.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Both of the charts also have technical traits that we can scan for that work well after a big pullback or from a bear market. So will the same scan work to find soaring names like Tesla (TSLA)? It has been a big stock and on fire of late, but it has not made new highs. Can we find other similarities using the indicators, rather than just the price?</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2020/04/15/eefe9134-d708-4d05-aafb-f40df8e85ffd.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TSLA&amp;p=W&amp;yr=3&amp;mn=0&amp;dy=0&amp;i=p50148095801&amp;a=738982514')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>There are a few common elements in the indicators that are not the same on the price component. All of the stocks have a strong SCTR ranking above 75. During the correction, the weekly PPO stayed above the previous low and, because this pullback was so brief, all of the stocks also have a PPO that stayed above zero. The full stochastics are also all turning up now. This week has obviously been a breakout for these three stocks. We can also use variations and different settings of these technical clues to help find strong stocks breaking out. While the price on AMZN made a lower low, the price action on the other two stocks did not.</p><p>These stocks are just starting to break out. If this rally can continue, we'll see more technical breakouts. Using some of the scans and tools on StockCharts, we can make these stocks a lot easier to find.</p><p>Hopefully, the scan above can help get you started on scanning. As the charts change, we'll be able to find new strong breakouts as they occur by using these tools. I'll continue to provide other methods to find strong stocks. We still have volatility ahead, but using technical tools, we will be able to use different methods to navigate through the earnings storms on the horizon.</p>This week has already been remarkable with the leadership of Amazon (AMZN) and Netflix (NFLX). I think we can imagine that Amazon is becoming even more dominant with their reach and delivery systems. Netflix, meanwhile, has seen a huge jump in app downloads, and we probably all know some resistant friends that have joined the binge.On this week's Market Buzz, I covered off some of the stocks that are already breaking out to new highs. One of the benefits of finding stocks already at new highs after a market correction is that all the owners are happy to own them and not really looking to...What a Month!Greg Schnelltag:stockcharts.com,2020-03-30:post-192422020-03-30T23:18:17Z2020-03-30T21:37:59Z<p>It seems incredible to say, but the market rallied 20% last week between the low and the high! What a great week! Once again, history gets in the way using facts to keep that in perspective. The 35% drop needs a 55% rise to get back to even.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2020/03/30/4742b7e9-601a-4d62-a04a-62d47d390aba.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&amp;p=D&amp;st=2019-12-11&amp;en=2020-03-30&amp;i=p38975321505&amp;a=732477289')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>As unemployment soars and the Fed uses more tools than a finishing carpenter, it is a battle of the ages. The Fed is 4 for 4 in the use of QE. </p><p>I made a note on this 2015 Shanghai chart ($SSEC) that I thought was interesting. Check out the box in the centre. Even with global stimulus, the stock market topped in May 2015 and made a final low in January 2016. While there was no QE going on at that time, it had just ended in late 2014. </p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2020/03/30/d9bc160a-0c09-4ebb-af1e-bc6cf2a07e11.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SSEC&amp;p=W&amp;st=2009-11-02&amp;en=2016-03-01&amp;i=p24353173315&amp;a=405963443')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Here's the question - will QE be able to drive past all the economic problems coming at us to push the market higher? That is the crux of the problem. I have charts where my annotations say whenever the Fed is flooding the market with money, get long, real long. Ignore the world, buy the Fed.</p><p>As we sit in the face of soaring unemployment numbers, plummeting world trade and crushingly low PMI's being expected from around the world, the death toll is rising by the minute every day. Politicians worldwide are extending the periods of isolation, and the market is up 20% in a week.</p><p>I look out, frozen in time, wondering if I should go back and buy the Fed because of ENORMOUS QE or realize that this time it is different. That is what makes investing hard. I have shown the US market on the chart below, which was the time period after the text box on the chart above.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2020/03/30/97ce3067-4d56-42d0-9b21-3ee76fb31c68.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&amp;p=W&amp;yr=6&amp;mn=0&amp;dy=0&amp;i=p65708404888&amp;a=732498116')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>I couldn't help but be angered hearing Barrack (from Colony Partners) that his rinse-and-repeat cash flow hedging program was no longer working in a down market, so the Fed should bail that out. I guess they should bail out everything that didn't keep a stock market price rising. Stay still, nobody gets hurt, we'll buy it all, go back to being all in. It's an amazing investment thesis. </p><p>Then you look back at 1929. The original drop was just phase one. The bounce was big, but then the selling was relentless. An <a href="https://thereformedbroker.com/2020/03/29/three-reasons-its-not-1929/" target="_blank">article by a portfolio manager </a>this week listed three things to suggest it was not 1929. I read the brief list:</p><ul><li>Money gets put in every two weeks by the buy and hold investing community. </li><li>The Fed is more sophisticated now, using tools different than the old standard British ones.</li><li>And one other. Oh yeah, we can't figure out what caused 1929.</li></ul><p>Ok. Just go all in. The world spins better now.</p><p>Here is the 1929 chart from the StockCharts Historical Chart Gallery on the Charts and Tools Tab. </p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2020/03/30/57e39464-d90b-42b8-babe-0feb4f1b4357.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>What could possibly go wrong that would cause a market drop of that scale in the modern world? Maybe nothing. But at least think about the reason it could continue. Human behaviour is a strange thing.</p><p>First of all, a rising tide lifts all boats. It is when the tide goes out or the seas get rough, that boats run into sand bars, old wrecks and rocks. The tide is out right now. Financial collapses don't happen at market tops, they happen midway down a correcting market. See Bear Stearns or Lehmann, Washington Mutual or Merrill Lynch. </p><p>The US bank ETFs corrected 50% from high to low. They corrected 50% more than the indexes' 35%. Ouch. Why are the banks correcting so much more? For a non-financial crisis, there is a lot of selling in the banks. Why has the Fed been easing since last fall? Why has the Fed been launching new policies like non-QE (repos) while the market was rising? What were the cracks that made that happen? </p><p>The Asian Financial Crisis wiped out Long Term Capital Management, with a room full of mathematicians suggesting it got outside of normal aberrations. As we saw the COVID-19 virus hit our shores from afar, we also have seen issues in the rest of the world follow us home. The PIIGS crisis in 2011 is an example. </p><p>I see a couple of obvious things overseas before we get to these local underlying problems in hedge funds getting their hedges hurt. If we are having problems in the USA, what are the odds of other funds in other parts of the world being struck down by the speed of the move? Let's list a few potential issues out so we won't use the phrase "black swan" if they pile on:</p><p>Australian banks have very high asset-to-loan ratios. I didn't know that information until recently, but they have some of the ugliest charts in my list of 80 international banks. Now I know why. Will they start to break down like US banks in 2008? 10-year lows. Its last major high was 2014. I have four Australia banking charts that all look weak.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2020/03/30/ed09f9f6-0fce-4dc4-944c-c0e9d338bd49.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ANZBY&amp;p=M&amp;yr=10&amp;mn=0&amp;dy=0&amp;i=p58370936921&amp;a=732517007')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>My understanding is that the larger European banks did not recapitalize after the Great Financial Crisis. I don't know about the fundamentals of each bank. I do know their bank charts look terrible, like something is very wrong. </p><p>When bank charts are terrible, that is a big problem. Other sectors can come or go, but bank failures are big. The European bank charts trade at very low prices typically associated with something like energy stocks in a beaten-down industry. Many of these bank stocks are sub-$10 stocks on their US listings, where a JPM is at $90. Check out the 10-year run for DB. Now add the COVID-19 situation.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2020/03/30/8620b916-1d76-499a-b8cb-a3af47224199.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DB&amp;p=M&amp;yr=10&amp;mn=0&amp;dy=0&amp;i=p71445721015&amp;a=732515665')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Those are company-level problems. I could string 20 of those together in a story that becomes a black swan story if the tide stays out too long. </p><p>I could go on with country-level debt for Japan and Italy. </p><p>The bondholders started (for the 9th time) debt restructuring for Argentina at around 85% debt to GDP. Look at Japan. </p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2020/03/30/8c366f1b-1629-4fa7-8828-7eb84c3391cf.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>If GDP plummets and government spending soars, when do bondholders give up on the highest debt-to-GDP country in the world? At 300%, 400%, 500%? I know a lot of their debt is internally held, but what level does that finally trigger problems, with unemployment surging worldwide and trade problems due to tariffs that were on the radar before?</p><p>I get it. The Fed is pushing everyone to stay invested. If you'd like to go back up the truck and agree with those three reasons to stay invested, I get it. The problem is that the domino effects usually start to show up in stressful credit markets. Just be aware of the smouldering risks that were dormant in that rising tide. Now the tide is going out, with unemployment rapidly doubling around the world. At least by being aware of some of the most obvious situations, it's a lot better than saying we don't know why things blew up in a quick, melting market. </p><p>I just launched a new version of my website this week! It can be seen over on <a href="https://www.gregschnell.ca/" target="_blank">GregSchnell.ca</a>. It will link with the <a href="https://www.gregschnell.com/" target="_blank">gregschnell.com</a> site later in the week. I am trying to build my subscription base, so if you are interested, you can use the code NETWORTH1 for a huge break on an annual subscription from $860 to $497. Click here to subscribe and be sure to check out the testimonials tab. <a href="https://gregschnell.recurly.com/subscribe/annual-plan" target="_blank">Get it now</a>! </p>It seems incredible to say, but the market rallied 20% last week between the low and the high! What a great week! Once again, history gets in the way using facts to keep that in perspective. The 35% drop needs a 55% rise to get back to even.As unemployment soars and the Fed uses more tools than a finishing carpenter, it is a battle of the ages. The Fed is 4 for 4 in the use of QE. I made a note on this 2015 Shanghai chart ($SSEC) that I thought was interesting. Check out the box in the centre. Even with global stimulus, the stock market topped in May 2015 and made a final low in January...A Replay Of Oil and the DominoesGreg Schnelltag:stockcharts.com,2020-03-09:post-190972020-03-09T18:16:37Z2020-03-09T18:09:29Z<p>I have set up a sale for new subscribers as annual members. Use the Coupon Code NETWORTH1 for savings of over 40%.<a href="https://gregschnell.recurly.com/subscribe/gspi010" target="_blank">Get Greg's award-winning Technical Analysis now.</a></p><p><strong>Testimonials&nbsp;</strong></p><p>Here are some of the testimonials I have received in the last few days, following the decline. I think hearing from investors following my work through the decline is important because it would be easy to agree when the markets are at the highs.&nbsp;</p><p>"I do not make any decisions until I have viewed and watched your videos. You have saved me, from my self, several times. Thanks for shedding the light on this market." </p><p>- Rory R, Colorado March 8, 2020</p><p>"I have been following Greg for three years. I count on his thorough technical analysis of the markets including the commodities to assist me in understanding the big picture. Greg is an outstanding technical&nbsp;analyst.&nbsp;- (Spelling correction on words 'thorough' and 'analyst'&nbsp;by Greg). Thank you for your insight."</p><p>- Dave D, March 8, 2020</p><hr><p><strong>Oil and the Dominoes Paper</strong></p><p>I wrote this paper back in 2016, as we made the lows in the market. What is important is to be aware of how oil affects other sectors. As you scroll through the article, you can see the red line move to the right on each chart as sector after sector followed oil lower.</p><p>Note the quote by Jamie Dimon.</p><p><strong><em>Click on this link to my published StockCharts blog to read the article!</em></strong></p><p>--------&gt;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href="https://stockcharts.com/articles/commodities/2016/02/oil-and-the-dominoes-2016.html" target="_blank">Oil and the Dominoes.</a><span target="_blank">&nbsp;&lt;----------</span></p><hr><p>It would not surprise me to see this play out again. The bottom line, in my opinion, is that this is not over, but we are already down 20% on all the indexes. My thoughts are to give it a chance to level out, unless you like to play the bounces. Once oil settles, we'll be able to rally.</p><p>I have changed my technical analysis since I wrote the article. One of the improvements in my analysis since 2016 is my personal Schnell Strength Index, which subscription members have access to each week. The Schnell Strength Index would find the low of 2016 to help investors get back in within weeks of that major low.</p><p><strong>Here are a few more testimonials</strong></p><p>"I have been an individual investor for over forty years. Greg's analysis and commentary are, hands down, the best I have ever seen. I have become a better investor since subscribing to Greg's investment service and I have both made, and saved, a lot of money by heeding his insights.</p><p>"Why do I find his work so helpful?</p><ul><li>his encyclopedic knowledge of the nuances of technical analysis.</li><li>his humility and lack of self-promotion.</li><li>his use of historical context to clarify current market behavior</li><li>his emphasis on capital preservation.</li><li>his wide-ranging knowledge of equity, bond, currency, international and commodity markets</li><li>his ability to make complex concepts easy to understand"</li></ul><p>- Lynn H, New Mexico March 8th, 2020</p><p>"For years I was a self taught charter, trying to find my way through all the different indicators, moving averages, candlesticks, etc etc. I spent countless hours weaving my way through the multiple youtube pages, websites and listening to anyone that would talk about charting. After trial and error and clicking through countless links, I stumbled across some of your work. It made a lot of sense to me, a very broad look at the markets and sectors. Not only am I a member of your website now but I pretty much have jumped on the Schnell charting bandwagon and only listen to your teachings. You have changed my charting knowledge quite significantly, improved my place in the markets and I thank you for that."&nbsp;&nbsp;</p><p>-&nbsp;Nick S. Canada - March 5, 2020</p><p><br></p><p>MEMBERSHIP SALE:</p><p>There is a sale for new subscribers for annual members. Use the Coupon Code NETWORTH1 for savings of over 40%.<a href="https://gregschnell.recurly.com/subscribe/gspi010" target="_blank">Get Greg's award-winning Technical Analysis now.</a><span target="_blank">&nbsp;</span></p><p><br></p><p><strong>More Testimonials, IMPORTANTLY ALL THESE ARE FROM AFTER THE DECLINE!</strong></p><p>"Just a note to let you know how much I have come to rely on your timely market info. Whether its a trend about to take off to the upside or an alert to let people know that the market is due for a correction..&nbsp;You have helped me a great deal on timely entries and exits.&nbsp;Keep up the excellent work.</p><p>- Thanks Barry - March 5, 2020</p><p>"Greg, I have followed your work for many years, and your insight has not only steered me correctly in the Markets, but made and saved me in the turns and twists over many years! I cannot wait to read your work, and as you know, a faithful follower – you are one of the best in your business that I have found over my 50 years of investing!"</p><p>- Bob A. USA - March 4, 2020</p><p>"The chart trails that you guide with are convincing and have led to probable outcomes since I have been a member. I had moved into cash &amp; bonds before this February decline thanks to your work that saved me nearly 90K."</p><p>- Mark F.&nbsp;&nbsp;Colorado - March 4, 2020</p><p>MEMBERSHIP SALE:</p><p>There is a sale for new subscribers for annual members. Use the Coupon Code NETWORTH1 for savings of over 40%. <a href="https://gregschnell.recurly.com/subscribe/gspi010" target="_blank">Get Greg's award-winning Technical Analysis now.</a></p><p>Today we have the drop in crude. We still have the COVID-19 issues, weakness in Europe, etc. While buying the dips is sporty, keep your risk controlled.</p><p>Please contact me if you need anything or have suggestions.</p>I have set up a sale for new subscribers as annual members. Use the Coupon Code NETWORTH1 for savings of over 40%.Get Greg's award-winning Technical Analysis now.Testimonials&nbsp;Here are some of the testimonials I have received in the last few days, following the decline. I think hearing from investors following my work through the decline is important because it would be easy to agree when the markets are at the highs.&nbsp;"I do not make any decisions until I have viewed and watched your videos. You have saved me, from my self, several times. Thanks for shedding the light on this...Trying To RecoverGreg Schnelltag:stockcharts.com,2020-03-02:post-190532020-03-02T19:48:56Z2020-03-02T19:48:56Z<p>After a massive down week last week, the markets are trying to recover with a strong push to start Monday. What is difficult to assess is how much economic damage has been done. If the world slows, is that already priced in with a 15% pullback on the Nasdaq and the $SPX? I realize how many downside projections there are for the economic squeeze coming. The question is, with Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) market caps dropping 20% into a bear market correction, is the damage already priced in? </p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2020/03/02/7366f98c-0690-46c0-85e2-c359397478d8.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AAPL&amp;p=D&amp;yr=0&amp;mn=10&amp;dy=0&amp;i=p65992963071&amp;a=722755507')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>We did get some extreme readings on Friday suggesting enough to mark a bottom.</p><p>The volume on the Nasdaq composite was <em><u>a billion shares</u></em> - more than any other trading day ever! Thursday, February 27th was also a new record for volume on the Nasdaq Composite, until Friday outpaced that. With two record-setting volume days back to back, we were at big extremes.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2020/03/02/ac315c3c-1b4b-4cf0-a9d5-318b951206a5.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24COMPQ&amp;p=D&amp;yr=1&amp;mn=0&amp;dy=0&amp;i=p28115028590&amp;a=724855238')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>On the $SPX, we also hit 8-year highs in volume.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2020/03/02/fff8a2f1-5446-454b-9bf8-92e9cceede6c.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&amp;p=D&amp;yr=1&amp;mn=3&amp;dy=0&amp;i=p28143648940&amp;a=720253130')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>From a volume perspective, we had more than enough volume to mark a low. </p><p>On December 26th, 2018, the Dow rallied 1000 points. On March 2nd, 2020 (a.k.a. Monday) the intraday high is up around 780 points just after lunch in NYC. So the rally attempt is underway, even in the face of massive momentum to the downside.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2020/03/02/0325b75d-c63d-411d-883a-63a8323cdef5.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24INDU&amp;p=D&amp;yr=0&amp;mn=8&amp;dy=0&amp;i=p39138384350&amp;a=724857547')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>From my Twitter feed, the Fed is building a coordinated action with central banks around the world. The governments around the world are also expected to build some stimulus here. OPEC is meeting and is largely expected to cut dramatically. So there are a significant number of forces trying to stop the selling. </p><p>I did a video Monday morning after the open showing different places to look for some new investing ideas. You can find that video, titled <a href="https://youtu.be/9ZIwEndy7hM" target="_blank">Trying to Recover</a>, here:</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2020/03/02/4eb5a205-c3d4-4958-8ffd-1029610b54d0.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;" onclick="window.open('https://youtu.be/9ZIwEndy7hM')"></p><p>I am sure it will be turbulent coming off the lows. The real question is this: <em>Can the bounce last?</em> Stay tuned, but for now, we are trying to build a v-shaped low.</p><p><br></p>After a massive down week last week, the markets are trying to recover with a strong push to start Monday. What is difficult to assess is how much economic damage has been done. If the world slows, is that already priced in with a 15% pullback on the Nasdaq and the $SPX? I realize how many downside projections there are for the economic squeeze coming. The question is, with Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) market caps dropping 20% into a bear market correction, is the damage already priced in? We did get some extreme readings on Friday suggesting enough to mark a bottom.The volume on the...Dow Down 1000!Greg Schnelltag:stockcharts.com,2020-02-25:post-190092020-02-26T21:23:31Z2020-02-25T05:26:33Z<p>After a bruising day, it can sometimes be easier to turn off the machine and ignore what might be coming. The video included in this document is a brief half-hour discussion about four different things. </p><p><span class="image-caption">When Church Spires Topple</span></p><iframe src="//www.youtube.com/embed/0TcT8vV1wPE" frameborder="0" width="640" height="360" style="display: block;margin: 0 auto;"></iframe><p><br></p><ul><li>The breaking down of the indexes</li><li>The advance/decline data also starting to break</li><li>A look at the Nasdaq 100 names</li><li>A look at the transports</li></ul><p>My personal indicators are on a full sell signal. After briefly trying to rally coming out of the end of January, they have been unable to get broad participation. Since the rally started in early February, a significant number of groups have failed to make higher highs.</p><p>The title of the PowerPoint in the video is "When Church Spires Topple." Week after week, we had charts making spires into the sky - MSFT, TSLA, SPCE, NLOK and S, to name some of the bigger names. </p><p>I mentioned in an article two weeks ago that MSFT had gone parabolic. (<a href="https://stockcharts.com/articles/canada/2020/02/microsoft-follows-tesla-onto-t-649.html" target="_blank">Microsoft Follows Tesla On The Arc</a>.) The Nasdaq index was 18% above its 200-day Exponential Moving Average, visualized on the chart below using the (1,200) setting on the PPO indicator. It has not been this euphoric in 17 years. Betting on it going even higher with average earnings and COVID-19 seemed a stretch. </p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2020/02/24/369c78d0-35fe-4daa-8b4a-2ad38e4a72ee.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NDX&amp;p=D&amp;yr=19&amp;mn=2&amp;dy=10&amp;i=p63252572200&amp;a=722883155')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>On top of simple pictures like the one above, we have seen a consistent decay in bond yields, commodity prices and foreign markets, suggesting things are changing rapidly. </p><p>With the 10-year cracking new lows, that adds to the continued pressure here. </p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2020/02/24/893f557e-5a27-497e-8957-1788a97f7b28.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24TNX&amp;p=W&amp;yr=2&amp;mn=11&amp;dy=0&amp;i=p70081115789&amp;a=717229798')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Gold has been acting well, but Gold and Gold miners made big reversing candles on Monday. I thought that might be a hangout, but even that looks stretched. </p><p>With the breakdown in the Euro, it looked like we could trade country indexes, but that isn't working with a global slowdown. </p><p>Commodities are getting crushed, so that is also difficult. </p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2020/02/24/409c166d-7e47-46a7-897a-fa9408d95ea1.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24WTIC&amp;p=W&amp;yr=2&amp;mn=4&amp;dy=0&amp;i=p52742445012&amp;a=723579298')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>As I mentioned in the video, this does not look like a place to aggressively join the market. There are some signs of a major long-term top for countries in Europe, but it is too early to start explaining how that might play out. The most important thing is to not let the market run away with your capital.</p><p>I recorded some <em>Market Buzz</em> Videos last week; you can find them here.</p><iframe src="//www.youtube.com/embed/x0DpWtYTxkE" frameborder="0" width="640" height="360" style="display: block;margin: 0 auto;"></iframe><p><br></p><iframe src="//www.youtube.com/embed/H8G-o5914xo" frameborder="0" width="640" height="360" style="display: block;margin: 0 auto;"></iframe><p><br></p>After a bruising day, it can sometimes be easier to turn off the machine and ignore what might be coming. The video included in this document is a brief half-hour discussion about four different things. When Church Spires ToppleThe breaking down of the indexesThe advance/decline data also starting to breakA look at the Nasdaq 100 namesA look at the transportsMy personal indicators are on a full sell signal. After briefly trying to rally coming out of the end of January, they have been unable to get broad participation. Since the rally started in early February, a significant number of...Microsoft Follows Tesla Onto The ArcGreg Schnelltag:stockcharts.com,2020-02-13:post-189382020-02-14T20:05:12Z2020-02-13T16:03:31Z<p>Years ago, Microsoft (MSFT) said they were going to start billing for Microsoft Office monthly to smooth out their revenues. I remember hating the concept. Today, everything we get is billed monthly in our email rather than the post office. They come like bullets in the inbox, just another expense in the email gun. Each quarter, Microsoft turns out money as the SaaS rain accumulates into a river of wealth. What might have been held inside the river banks of the Potomac years ago now has the massive change in profit flow requiring river banks the size of the Grand Canyon to handle the deluge.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2020/02/13/d9743486-ad19-4c56-add8-63924454c9ab.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MSFT&amp;p=W&amp;yr=30&amp;mn=0&amp;dy=0&amp;i=p64316504964&amp;a=720815762')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>The PPO, or momentum indicator, has reached the same level of momentum as when the Microsoft stock topped back in 2000, as shown by the blue line. We can see only one time in the last 20 years where the stock momentum exceeded the level, which was when it was coming off the 2009 lows. But the stock had a few quick days of wealth gains through the 1990s as well, so this thrust is only moderate in the company's history!</p><p>On a monthly chart, what would be seen as a ramp from $25 looks similar to the recent surge in Tesla (TSLA) on a daily chart. It's impressive to see a logarithmic chart on a monthly setting with the parabolic moonshot that we have seen on a mature company. I kept the moving average at a 40-period setting, which is what the weekly has above. It hasn't been touched since 2012. The rate of acceleration on the purple area shows the relative strength compared to the $SPX.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2020/02/13/19678a98-028f-4000-83d8-04c7e40b5738.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MSFT&amp;p=M&amp;yr=30&amp;mn=0&amp;dy=0&amp;i=p57185776624&amp;a=720820617')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Recently, the Microsoft stock angle-of-attack accelerated yet again to the extreme Arc-of-F18-fighter-jet-mode-going-vertical, as they are now a normal event for mature predictable revenues. While the ConV19 virus has become the focal point of every news channel, Microsoft's stock has actually ramped up its <em>Top Gun</em> momentum. That is more easily seen on the daily. No, it doesn't have a vaccine, it's just where the groupthink of "money managers" have congregated in the church of "what-is-working-now" that won't be hurt by ConV19.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2020/02/13/c86bcb29-7875-476a-a810-726a3d601685.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MSFT&amp;p=D&amp;yr=1&amp;mn=6&amp;dy=0&amp;i=p29489531739&amp;a=720821849')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>We continue to live in parabolic times, week after week. Only two weeks ago, the ever-optimistic Tesla said they would not raise capital. We wake up to a Tesla that raised another $2B in capital with a stock sale overnight. When you get an inter-continental ballistic missile weighing in on your stock chart, what was said yesterday doesn't matter. </p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2020/02/13/0e442dbb-36dc-4c72-a5d1-38e6cbb9a74b.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TSLA&amp;p=W&amp;yr=3&amp;mn=0&amp;dy=0&amp;i=p86351391629&amp;a=720822217')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Here is a stock aptly symbolized with a name Galactic Holdings, ticker SPCE. The stock was recently brought onto the NYSE on October 28th. That is a warm welcome onto the Galactica exchanges!</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2020/02/13/08cb2eac-1ccc-4695-b880-3ef25b218da4.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPCE&amp;p=W&amp;yr=3&amp;mn=0&amp;dy=0&amp;i=p33007143700&amp;a=720823197')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Before that was vegetables processed forever with the worst combination of food additives to be made to taste like beef. The moonshot was 10x on the IPO price.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2020/02/13/7ce46a84-9353-430b-894b-a5a9ce6e52cf.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BYND&amp;p=W&amp;yr=3&amp;mn=0&amp;dy=0&amp;i=p73442860801&amp;a=720825761')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>As the computer programmers continue to develop and build algorithms to chase the stock charts higher, we'll live on the Arc of Sentiment. </p><p>Standing back, it is helpful to see if anyone is drunk at the party. It might be important to remember last year had flat earnings. From <em>Barron's</em>, January 20th, 2020:</p><p> "Earnings for S&amp;P 500 Companies Probably Fell in 2019" </p><p>We had flat earnings in 2019 and a 30% upside ramp in the stock market. The ConV19 virus appears to be dramatically slowing the global growth rate in 2020. We are about 4 weeks into the coming supply chain disruption. </p><p>From my Twitter feed, paraphrased as I can't find the exact tweet:</p><p> "Markets top on euphoria. We are hardly at a euphoric state when everyone is trading with one foot out the door." </p><p>To me, seeing all of these parabolic moves suggests a euphoria like the Toronto Raptors winning the NBA title. Let's just call it rare. Microsoft ($45b) and Apple ($75b) alone had $120 billion in buybacks approved to buy their own stocks at all time highs. The number of shares on the stock exchanges reportedly dropped by 20% over the last 2 years, which held earnings S&amp;P flat! Imagine, without buybacks, how the movie would play? CSX freight volumes and revenues were down, but the stock is up, because the company buys their own shares to hold it at a record high. The mirage of earnings per share. The financial analysts love using the EPS number to keep the mirage of growth going, because the actual YoY comparisons would scare regular financial investors expecting companies to grow. </p><p>As commodities fall into the well of despair, ships have stop shipping and shipping rates are water-falling around the world. The Fed is spending $400b before ConV19 and the US Government will spend more than $1 trillion a year to keep the bull market going, so what could go wrong? The Federal Reserve sees no signs of excess as they themselves pump $100 billion per month to "stabilize" the market. On the back of this liquidity, we see parabolas on industry ETFs. What would normally be a 5-year gain shows up in a year. Remarkable.</p><p>Microsoft is one of Robinhood's top stocks. I chatted with a gentleman yesterday who added Microsoft on the 2-day pullback. It continues to be a darling. The future is so bright because CFAs can map the revenue ramp going forward. I get it. I am not saying sell Microsoft. But it would be prudent to be aware of just how much sunshine is blowing around. Use a little morning quiet time to help in judging if this euphoria has a big runway ahead.</p><p>I produced a few videos recently. </p><iframe src="//www.youtube.com/embed/F3OEAJriYw0" frameborder="0" width="640" height="360" style="display: block;margin: 0 auto;"></iframe><p><span class="image-caption">Clues From Different Indexes</span></p><p>Here is a video from <em>Market Buzz</em> where I reviewed all the Marijuana names I track. There are over 90 stocks, so, if you are interested in the industry (which might have some upside as edibles and oils explode onto the market), you'll enjoy this content. I know they are out of favor. But being ready is half the battle.</p><iframe src="//www.youtube.com/embed/ieKarMKeqMg" frameborder="0" width="640" height="360" style="display: block;margin: 0 auto;"></iframe><p><span class="image-caption">Can Marijuana Names Make A Comeback?</span></p><p>Last Friday's <em>Market Buzz</em> video looked through the shipping stocks to help hunt for a turn in the freight moving.</p><iframe src="//www.youtube.com/embed/lMF4VbP2Oh4" frameborder="0" width="640" height="360" style="display: block;margin: 0 auto;"></iframe><p><br></p><p>And last Wednesday's<em> Market Buzz</em> was titled "All That Glitter." I covered off Tesla and Precious Metals like Gold and Silver names.</p><iframe src="//www.youtube.com/embed/dMQcjkJee0k" frameborder="0" width="640" height="360" style="display: block;margin: 0 auto;"></iframe><p><br></p><p>While the market is down marginally on Thursday morning, the bulls love trading on the back of ConV19 fears. The TV has us worried about the virus slowing trade, but the reality is that the individual companies, the Fed, the US Government and every government around the world is flooding liquidity and debt into the markets. This is a parade until it ceases. Trade well, but be very aware just how non-earnings related the move up in 2019 was even after all the buybacks, and it seems to be setting up for a tougher year so far with trade impairments. Perhaps we can rely on more Fed injections, more Microsoft and Apple (AAPL) buybacks and more US debt to keep the party going. I'll end on that positive note.</p>Years ago, Microsoft (MSFT) said they were going to start billing for Microsoft Office monthly to smooth out their revenues. I remember hating the concept. Today, everything we get is billed monthly in our email rather than the post office. They come like bullets in the inbox, just another expense in the email gun. Each quarter, Microsoft turns out money as the SaaS rain accumulates into a river of wealth. What might have been held inside the river banks of the Potomac years ago now has the massive change in profit flow requiring river banks the size of the Grand Canyon to handle the...Commodities Need To Bounce HereGreg Schnelltag:stockcharts.com,2020-01-29:post-188462020-01-29T18:08:12Z2020-01-29T16:26:31Z<p>Here is the chart of Copper (CPER) trying to hold at support this week. One of the problems showing up is that all the commodities are breaking down. Support is right here, right now. The reason it is called support is because the chart has bounced here before. I want to be optimistic to buy here if it holds and let someone else own it if it doesn't. One of the concerns is the momentum rolling over (PPO indicator) just above zero. The two examples of that in 2018 and 2019 were not friendly to holders of the ETF at that time.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2020/01/29/656464c5-073a-4624-b410-07ee6739dea0.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CPER&amp;p=W&amp;yr=4&amp;mn=0&amp;dy=0&amp;i=p96774565809&amp;a=717062820')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>One of the ways to analyze the commodities demand is through the stocks that produce them, such as FCX for Copper. Price is trying to bounce off the 40-week moving average. Momentum is rolling over on the PPO, but the indicator is making higher highs and higher lows. If copper is going to improve, we should se the momentum indicator on FCX hold up above zero and start to turn higher. That would be a great setup for a big move higher.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2020/01/29/e55918d7-7a0e-48fb-8d2a-75898a48c0c3.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FCX&amp;p=W&amp;yr=3&amp;mn=0&amp;dy=0&amp;i=p00984936774&amp;a=717078900')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>I did record a video about Commodities on the weekend, which warns of the precarious levels that we are currently at on 4 or 5 different charts. </p><iframe src="//www.youtube.com/embed/q1o_qF7NY64" frameborder="0" width="640" height="360" style="display: block;margin: 0 auto;"></iframe><p><span class="image-caption">Commodities Need To Find Support</span></p><p>Commodities could be a big clue as to whether or not the world turns higher or lower from here. Pay attention to either result for broader implications! </p>Here is the chart of Copper (CPER) trying to hold at support this week. One of the problems showing up is that all the commodities are breaking down. Support is right here, right now. The reason it is called support is because the chart has bounced here before. I want to be optimistic to buy here if it holds and let someone else own it if it doesn't. One of the concerns is the momentum rolling over (PPO indicator) just above zero. The two examples of that in 2018 and 2019 were not friendly to holders of the ETF at that time.One of the ways to analyze the commodities demand is through the...Actually, Utilities Lead The WeekGreg Schnelltag:stockcharts.com,2020-01-20:post-187912020-01-21T18:29:54Z2020-01-20T05:40:48Z<p>It was another big week around the world, with almost all the global markets up big. </p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2020/01/19/a0f95f6f-82ea-4bf6-89ec-a142fcd7d61c.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto; width: 75%;"><span class="image-caption">World Markets</span></p><p>While the Shanghai closed down marginally, all the commodity countries soared. If the Fed is trying to get inflation going, perhaps this is leading us down the road. Brazil, Australia, Canada and Russia all surged this week. Only Brazil didn't make a higher high, but it was close. Metals like copper closed higher and the Steel and Lithium ETFs also moved up. Even though the Shanghai couldn't move this week, perhaps we can see these commodities continue to climb and start a global reflation. </p><p>To me, this is the single biggest question. Can we get the global economy to reflate? There is an assumption that settling the China trade agreement (Phase 1) could restart some trade globally. The real question is, will it be able to restart? </p><p>Here is the chart of Copper. The breakout this week looks helpful. </p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2020/01/19/836df750-7f17-45c3-9255-2db1fe5eb00c.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24COPPER&amp;p=W&amp;yr=2&amp;mn=6&amp;dy=0&amp;i=p29662077783&amp;a=714867531')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>I like to watch the major mining companies for clues. BHP, RIO and VALE all made nice moves this week. This should give some indication that the global move in industrial metals/industrial manufacturing can start. All three companies have similar charts and closed Friday above recent consolidation. That is good news. </p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2020/01/19/5d04a9d1-2d4a-49ab-9a30-c393c2cece2d.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BHP&amp;p=W&amp;yr=2&amp;mn=6&amp;dy=0&amp;i=p18998693084&amp;a=714867725')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>We'll also need to see main commodities like oil start to accelerate. We are in the center of the 2019 range. Other commodities like gasoline and diesel are trying to find support at their uptrend line. Oil is an important clue for global growth, so this chart needs to turn up.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2020/01/19/2893eba8-132a-4691-9bc5-9a13f7298d6d.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24WTIC&amp;p=W&amp;yr=3&amp;mn=0&amp;dy=0&amp;i=p01602867814&amp;a=707600563')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>There are a few recordings this week that might have some more information about the current market setups. The first video discussed a new bounce in the marijuana names.</p><iframe src="//www.youtube.com/embed/lTQZ5CT_H2U" frameborder="0" width="640" height="360" style="display: block;margin: 0 auto;"></iframe><p><span class="image-caption">Marijuana Names Finally Light Up</span></p><p>On Friday's <em>Market Buzz</em>, I covered off financials, where there have been some interesting rotations of late. This video lays it all out.</p><iframe src="//www.youtube.com/embed/59O6XKiSZ1o" frameborder="0" width="640" height="360" style="display: block;margin: 0 auto;"></iframe><p><span class="image-caption">Financials!</span></p><p>I also did a Canadian Technician video this week, where I highlighted some interesting changes on the back of the new housing numbers.</p><iframe src="//www.youtube.com/embed/Nc9hAcSJnkM" frameborder="0" width="640" height="360" style="display: block;margin: 0 auto;"></iframe><p><span class="image-caption">Hot Housing Numbers!</span></p><p>I think it will be important to watch how commodities perform over the next few weeks.</p><p>I will be doing a four live presentations this week. For the first one on Tuesday, I will be on the Wealth 365 Summit on Tuesday at 9 AM ET. You can register for free on this link (<a href="https://summit.wealth365.com/speakers/greg-schnell-cmt-mfta/" target="_blank">Summit at Wealth365</a>). There will be 90 presenters across one whole week!</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2020/01/19/0daba726-a752-459b-bb79-0caf7eecdac5.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>On Tuesday afternoon, I will appear with David Keller on <em>The Final Bar</em>. Please tune in as we'll be discussing the potential for commodities to go higher. Feel free to click on <a href="https://stockcharts.com/tv/" target="_blank">this link </a>at 4 PM ET.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2020/01/19/ac5ab1ee-5f73-456d-a1e9-01330aefd7f3.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>I will also have two shows this week on <em>Market Buzz</em>. Wednesday and Friday at 10:30 AM ET. Follow <a href="https://stockcharts.com/tv/" target="_blank">this link</a> to connect for the live show.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2020/01/19/dddc0a20-8a04-4517-b6aa-471a20d418b1.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>It should be an active week this week, as we have finished Options Expiration and it looks like we are very extended on almost all the weekly indicators. We also have a Fed meeting that starts during the last week of the month. With utilities as the top-performing sector, it might be time to rotate into some defensives. Stay tuned!</p>It was another big week around the world, with almost all the global markets up big. World MarketsWhile the Shanghai closed down marginally, all the commodity countries soared. If the Fed is trying to get inflation going, perhaps this is leading us down the road. Brazil, Australia, Canada and Russia all surged this week. Only Brazil didn't make a higher high, but it was close. Metals like copper closed higher and the Steel and Lithium ETFs also moved up. Even though the Shanghai couldn't move this week, perhaps we can see these commodities continue to climb and start a global reflation. To...Gold Surges, Miners Don't!Greg Schnelltag:stockcharts.com,2020-01-06:post-187062020-01-06T18:08:51Z2020-01-06T17:26:41Z<p>Usually, in a big uptrend, gold miners will outperform the shiny metal itself. With the video I produced at year-end for Gold, I mentioned that one of the caution signs was a PPO that was correcting below the trend line but above zero. The signal would be bullish until proven otherwise.</p><p>The last two days we have seen Gold power higher, but the miners are underperforming the metal - that is, while Gold has moved up almost $40, the miners are up only marginally. This is a pretty big red flag. When we show it as a ratio, this uptrend line looks concerning.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2020/01/06/39344cbb-8c72-4e1b-b721-3493ab4c8cef.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX%3AGLD&amp;p=D&amp;yr=1&amp;mn=6&amp;dy=0&amp;i=p72382764408&amp;a=711420187')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>The video covering Gold can be found here.</p><iframe src="//www.youtube.com/embed/b4zS9LgrrlM" frameborder="0" width="640" height="360" style="display: block;margin: 0 auto;"></iframe><p><span class="image-caption">Gold Stocks Rock</span></p><p>The bottom line is that the picture of gold miners continuing to climb looks suspicious. For me, it means tightening stops or reducing position sizes until the picture improves. If a $25 surge in gold can't lift these gold stocks, that's a problem!</p>Usually, in a big uptrend, gold miners will outperform the shiny metal itself. With the video I produced at year-end for Gold, I mentioned that one of the caution signs was a PPO that was correcting below the trend line but above zero. The signal would be bullish until proven otherwise.The last two days we have seen Gold power higher, but the miners are underperforming the metal - that is, while Gold has moved up almost $40, the miners are up only marginally. This is a pretty big red flag. When we show it as a ratio, this uptrend line looks concerning.The video covering Gold can be found...Boeing's Chart Starts The DescentGreg Schnelltag:stockcharts.com,2019-12-17:post-185562020-01-06T06:41:15Z2019-12-17T04:08:01Z<p>Since JP Morgan (JPM) announced earnings on October 15th, the overall market has been accelerating higher ever since. It was a few days after (October 28th) that the $SPX started to break out; other indexes around the world started breaking out as well. With Monday's burst, we have pushed above the upper channel. There is no law that it has to slow down! </p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2019/12/16/a0a49686-9308-46d2-bf75-ba7008ae284f.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&amp;p=D&amp;yr=1&amp;mn=6&amp;dy=0&amp;i=p97973488633&amp;a=707233788')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>All my private indexes are still bullish. I continue to watch the advance/decline data for hints of trouble, but it continues to climb. On this chart below, the lower panel is the cumulative advance decline line. When that trend starts to weaken, it can be a clue the market is starting to weaken. Clearly that is not happening. In the middle panel is a 2-week moving average of advance/decline data. All the charts are bullish. </p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2019/12/16/54716edc-1dc8-4e1b-b12d-97551ee1d4b8.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SUPADP&amp;p=D&amp;yr=1&amp;mn=2&amp;dy=0&amp;i=p84666752470&amp;a=707240712')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Leadership groups like the semiconductors are still climbing. The biggest weakness on semis showing up is that the price closed at the bottom of the price bars the last two days before going on to new highs. While it might need to breathe a bit before continuing the upward march, it has been an amazing run for an entire year. Notice the December 26th low in the bottom left and the price action driving into the top right.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2019/12/16/aeab1d58-4663-4861-93ba-0cb956ef023c.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SMH&amp;p=D&amp;yr=1&amp;mn=0&amp;dy=0&amp;i=p73917374309&amp;a=707239225')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Boeing (BA) is in the news this week with a dramatically different narrative than one year ago. With the suspension of production on the 737 Max today, this Boeing drag on the Industrials ETF continues. Boeing is hitting two-year lows in relative strength compared to the $SPX. The descent I referred to in the title was the relative strength. This is shown on the purple area chart. The institutional investors are losing their desire to support the stock as it creates underperformance on their overall portfolio. For people with a vision years out, it might be worth waiting. For portfolio managers who get paid or fired for results relative to an index, it has been a dangerous hold. The sudden nose dive right at the end of the year crystallizes the damage. For me, one of the technical concerns is the PPO is starting to move down below zero. That is very weak momentum for the industrial giant. This stock could really lose support as downward momentum accelerates.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2019/12/16/6fe48d47-9789-49c4-9817-8269c4b6063d.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BA&amp;p=W&amp;yr=2&amp;mn=0&amp;dy=0&amp;i=p27371641586&amp;a=707244983')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>On this week's video, I worked through Part 1 of a deep dive into the major Industrial companies. <a href="https://youtu.be/7ugIr3uAtNE" target="_blank">Click here to check it out</a>. There are some other names that look like better choices than Boeing.</p><p><a href="https://youtu.be/7ugIr3uAtNE" target="_blank"><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2019/12/16/ac30b36c-13af-4aa7-959b-da14a72af986.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></a></p><p>Continue to enjoy the uptrend while it lasts! I want to take this moment to thank everyone for your support of my work. It is the wonderful people that write kind words of support that fuels my work. I wish you all a happy, healthy, safe holiday season! In 2020, let's have our best year ever!</p>Since JP Morgan (JPM) announced earnings on October 15th, the overall market has been accelerating higher ever since. It was a few days after (October 28th) that the $SPX started to break out; other indexes around the world started breaking out as well. With Monday's burst, we have pushed above the upper channel. There is no law that it has to slow down! All my private indexes are still bullish. I continue to watch the advance/decline data for hints of trouble, but it continues to climb. On this chart below, the lower panel is the cumulative advance decline line. When that trend starts to...A December With Lots Of MomentumGreg Schnelltag:stockcharts.com,2019-12-09:post-185082020-01-06T06:41:12Z2019-12-09T14:43:18Z<p>Following a dip at the start of the week, the market rebounded nicely, with the jobs report giving the market some soaring confidence to wrap up the week. While it was a stretched-out price bar, we closed right back near the highs. One of the big concerns the market has been worried about has been the China trade deal. As soon as the president suggested waiting until after the election, the market sold off significantly. Once a big change in trend started to emerge, more positive comments came out to reverse the situation.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2019/12/08/5296e685-13e2-4b92-9037-73d0dc9be947.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&amp;p=W&amp;yr=2&amp;mn=9&amp;dy=0&amp;i=p30439724427&amp;a=705370452')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>What's ahead? There are some tariffs scheduled to start next weekend (Dec 15), so that should add a little pressure to the China trade talks. They can always be deferred, so it is a wiggly Jell-O date so far. We also have the Fed meeting this week (Dec 10-11) so that could add a few fireworks. Quadruple witching is December 20th.</p><p>On the chart above, I placed some arrows up on the RSI. We are getting a little "overbought" but the breadth is still very strong. </p><p>It is always important to watch the big tech leaders and they look very solid. While Apple (AAPL) is clearly extended, a $70 billion buyback plan is pretty supportive. Microsoft (MSFT) has a $40 billion buyback, so these stocks continue to stretch the highs knowing the downside has some solid support. I love the breakout in Alphabet (GOOGL). That is a strong move. Netflix (NFLX) is still wounded from all the competition but it is climbing. Amazon (AMZN) has taken the year off.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2019/12/08/659d69c7-938e-49f5-802b-d1f59d08d527.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AMZN&amp;p=D&amp;st=2019-01-28&amp;i=p66308909450&amp;a=688359042')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Energy was the best performer on the week. The oil and gas charts are really ugly. This Exploration and Production ETF (XOP) is really low. Crude Oil closing up over $59.00 on Friday could help attract some attention, but currently it is very bleak. </p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2019/12/08/cbeade3f-8e64-4b52-85c4-26917628634a.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XOP&amp;p=W&amp;yr=2&amp;mn=0&amp;dy=0&amp;i=p63113588570&amp;a=691541760')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>I think one of the areas to watch for 2020 is a big change in the trend in oil. We'll find out if I am right in time, but I like buying commodities when they try to bounce. While I was on vacation, there were no new videos, so here is the link to the current one, <a href="https://youtu.be/WkoJyIS3AKo" target="_blank">Bouncing Through November</a>. </p><p>This market still looks bullish to me, with lots of nice setups.</p>Following a dip at the start of the week, the market rebounded nicely, with the jobs report giving the market some soaring confidence to wrap up the week. While it was a stretched-out price bar, we closed right back near the highs. One of the big concerns the market has been worried about has been the China trade deal. As soon as the president suggested waiting until after the election, the market sold off significantly. Once a big change in trend started to emerge, more positive comments came out to reverse the situation.What's ahead? There are some tariffs scheduled to start next weekend...Autos Start To RollGreg Schnelltag:stockcharts.com,2019-11-09:post-183362020-01-06T06:41:03Z2019-11-09T14:59:19Z<p>This is just to highlight that my content volume will drop over the next two weeks as I will be on vacation.</p><p>The market is broadly moving higher, which is bullish! What is not moving higher is the REITs and Utility industry groups. The Mortgage REITs are okay, but most others are feeling some pressure.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2019/11/09/235b1c48-ca26-45df-8865-8c44cd9f631b.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24DJUSMR&amp;p=W&amp;yr=3&amp;mn=0&amp;dy=0&amp;i=p32966417688&amp;a=698911812')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Two big-name auto stocks had a big week, while some of the others are firming up. It is so odd, as Ford had another debt downgrade recently. We can all see the industry challenges, but there are still some names breaking out!</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2019/11/09/24099a67-db48-4b05-9ba6-44d36ac1eba6.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24DJUSAU&amp;p=W&amp;yr=3&amp;mn=0&amp;dy=0&amp;i=p06006048437&amp;a=698911949')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Here is a link to this weeks video, <a href="https://youtu.be/hhWHjDV6uco" target="_blank">Autos Start To Roll</a>.</p><iframe src="//www.youtube.com/embed/hhWHjDV6uco" frameborder="0" width="640" height="360" style="display: block;margin: 0 auto;"></iframe><p><br></p><p>With the market working higher, price action is very bullish.</p><p><br></p><p>Have a good couple of weeks!</p>This is just to highlight that my content volume will drop over the next two weeks as I will be on vacation.The market is broadly moving higher, which is bullish! What is not moving higher is the REITs and Utility industry groups. The Mortgage REITs are okay, but most others are feeling some pressure.Two big-name auto stocks had a big week, while some of the others are firming up. It is so odd, as Ford had another debt downgrade recently. We can all see the industry challenges, but there are still some names breaking out!Here is a link to this weeks video, Autos Start To Roll.With the...Breakouts Continue, All Aboard!Greg Schnelltag:stockcharts.com,2019-11-04:post-182922020-01-06T06:41:01Z2019-11-04T17:43:55Z<p>After months of 5% swings back and forth, the market is finally moving to the upside. The breakouts to new highs are occurring in three growth sectors while the remaining sectors are seeing some leadership stocks breaking out of bases. </p><p>Banking stocks broke out weeks ago, with JPM leading the way. Technology is breaking out as well. The Industrials sector (XLI) had a very bullish Friday breaking and holding a move above an 18-month range. The next steps would be to see the relative strength line on the purple area chart break above the green trend line. When industrials outperform, that is helpful.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2019/11/04/b752a8b6-0084-49d1-b3d6-0f53d00d5a04.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLI&amp;p=D&amp;yr=1&amp;mn=2&amp;dy=0&amp;i=p56461944380&amp;a=697559240')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>What makes the breakout on the industrials more significant is that a heavily-weighted stock in the sector is still struggling to find traction. While the $320 level has been support for all of 2019, Boeing (BA) seems to be making negative news headlines every week. As a technician, I keep wondering if the $320 level will hold. Is it just coincidence that the competitors' rival jet is called the A320? Lastly, the PPO seems to be turning down at zero, which is not what we want to see the momentum doing while trying to hold this support level. This is an important chart to watch this week.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2019/11/04/5c1abef9-3137-4497-a9d0-a596a1aa728d.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BA&amp;p=W&amp;yr=2&amp;mn=0&amp;dy=0&amp;i=p33496465161&amp;a=697563958')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Looking at Airbus, EADSY is doing a lot of technical things right. First of all, it bounced off a resistance layer that has now become support. The momentum shown on the PPO is turning up above zero. That is also a very bullish sign. EADSY looks very good here.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2019/11/04/1bae54af-0ba8-4e08-b863-c34da3215990.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=EADSY&amp;p=W&amp;st=2017-10-30&amp;en=2019-11-01&amp;i=p63485718582&amp;a=697566098')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>On <a href="https://youtu.be/OnJWYLgthfE" target="_blank">this week's video</a>, I sorted through the industrial sector finding areas of strength from multiple different perspectives, including analyzing the SCTR, using large-, mid- and small-cap methodologies, looking at the weight of the evidence from each industry group within the sector and eliminating stocks below $5. It's a quick watch, but hopefully you will find some ideas to help you take part in this rally.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2019/11/04/b4255181-7266-4f06-b481-a89d2019db8f.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Thanks for following along! Have a good week!</p><p><br></p>After months of 5% swings back and forth, the market is finally moving to the upside. The breakouts to new highs are occurring in three growth sectors while the remaining sectors are seeing some leadership stocks breaking out of bases. Banking stocks broke out weeks ago, with JPM leading the way. Technology is breaking out as well. The Industrials sector (XLI) had a very bullish Friday breaking and holding a move above an 18-month range. The next steps would be to see the relative strength line on the purple area chart break above the green trend line. When industrials outperform, that is...The Arc Leads To New HighsGreg Schnelltag:stockcharts.com,2019-10-26:post-182472020-01-06T06:40:59Z2019-10-26T21:35:54Z<p>After 7 days of trying to break above, we finally notched new highs on the $NDX! I kept wondering if we would ever get to the land of the new high ground! Apple (AAPL) was one of the stocks powering higher, giving us a path over the zone of resistance. The SPY ETF tracks the S&amp;P 500 and includes dividends; that chart made a new high, but the $SPX came up just short.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2019/10/25/40d72156-c4ec-4cf7-9e10-71172c806dd9.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>On the video, I mentioned the $SPX made a new high, but I was wrong, as it was a fraction short. It was the SPY (that includes dividends) that made the new high. </p><p>As with all good things, we now need to see the market not fall back down again! These new highs have been fleeting, so next week will be important to see if we can stay at new highs through the Fed meeting and month end. There is always something to watch for!</p><p>Here is the SPY chart on the back of a busy week of earnings:</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2019/10/26/ed1382e6-292e-49f3-bae6-323a1eaf597e.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&amp;p=D&amp;yr=0&amp;mn=8&amp;dy=0&amp;i=p31572979144&amp;a=695618678')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>The Nasdaq 100 was even more powerful, closing almost on the highs. That is pretty bullish!</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2019/10/26/6ced686d-9134-4dac-b6c1-216fc2a52918.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QQQ&amp;p=D&amp;yr=0&amp;mn=8&amp;dy=0&amp;i=p47831121757&amp;a=695623615')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>On this weekend's video, I worked through strong stocks within the Consumer Discretionary (XLY). The XLY is one of the strongest indicators on the consumer, and the chart is weakening on the SCTR. I have three volume lines on the volume chart, but they all tell the same story: volume is declining. The momentum shown on the PPO is rolling over, as the previous test of the high came up short.<img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2019/10/26/5009f83e-8cf4-4490-9a9a-86e1db079af8.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLY&amp;p=D&amp;yr=0&amp;mn=8&amp;dy=0&amp;i=p56964281554&amp;a=695624681')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>There were lots of charts within the sector outperforming the S&amp;P 500 over the last three months. In general, however, the chart above says the average discretionary stock is oscillating sideways. This is shown by each wave of the PPO having lower momentum and shorter waves. </p><p>The weekly chart looks equally difficult. The Relative Strength trend line shown in purple broke the year-long trend this week. I will point out the SCTR ranking is at a very low level that it does not usually exist at. The question is, will it bounce right here and break out to new highs as it surges higher, or is it telling us the same as the September 21st, 2018 top? In the case of the latter, the low SCTR reading, low volume and the break in relative strength support marked a meaningful move lower. The move lower happened on the XLY, as well as the $SPX, $NDX and $RUT. It's an important time to pay attention. </p><p>I used a black line to highlight this week's volume. The level was 11.99 million shares. Last week, the volume was even lower, at just 11.55 million. These are very low levels. These volumes are way lower than most vacation weeks, like Thanksgiving or Christmas. There are only three other weeks in the last few years with lower volume. The most recent ones, in July and April, both had low volumes just before the market dropped. The last two weeks have some of the lowest volumes on the three years on the chart. Two of those low volume weeks were the vacation levels in 2017. It's definitely the calm before an upside breakout storm - or a complete backing away before the drop. I don't expect volumes to stay this low. My gut says lower, as the SCTR is making lower lows and lower highs.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2019/10/26/a00406ff-2131-4298-ac5e-3faa8f77de65.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLY&amp;p=W&amp;yr=3&amp;mn=0&amp;dy=0&amp;i=p90876317185&amp;a=695624681')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>While I want to be extremely bullish, with the market indexes testing and breaking out to new highs, I think this important group has major warning signs flashing. </p><p>Here is a link to this week's video, <a href="https://youtu.be/Hv2cuoc5_5g" target="_blank">New Highs!</a></p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2019/10/26/ec30b7af-ac57-4226-a0eb-e93bc7881c73.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;" onclick="window.open('https://youtu.be/Hv2cuoc5_5g')"><span class="image-caption">The Bridge to New Highs!</span></p><p>It's an important week to stay focused on which industry groups are working.</p><p><br></p><p><strong>Founders Sale:</strong></p><p>If you would like to subscribe to my new content platform on&nbsp;<a href="https://www.gregschnell.com/" target="_blank">GregSchnell.com</a><span target="_blank">, If you are interested in subscribing:</span></p><ul><li>Go to the Private Clients tab on <span target="_blank">GregSchnell.com</span></li><li>Select the Annual membership in the red area</li><li>Click through to the payment page, add details</li></ul><p><br></p><p>You will receive one strong, concise email per week. THE LINKS TO THE WEEKLY VIDEO AND THE CHARTLIST ARE BOTH INCLUDED IN THE PDF.</p><p><strong>The email will contain:</strong></p><p><strong>1) A PDF file that will have my top ten charts of the week.</strong>&nbsp;This is to summarize all of the work I go through every week and give you the best information on market direction.</p><p>This will also include my preferred opinion on the market: very aggressive, moderately aggressive, selective, defensive, very defensive. We want to be aggressive coming out of major lows. These runs can last a few weeks to months and perhaps more than a year. I will be investing in the same tone I am recommending.</p><p><strong>2) The weekly video which summarizes the major moves in the USA, Canada, rest of world, commodities, bonds and currencies including:</strong></p><p><u>Commodities</u>: Copper, Steel, Rare Earth Metals, Lithium, Gold, Silver, Oil and Natural Gas, Marijuana.</p><p><u>Bonds</u>: 3-month, 2-year, 5-year, 10-year, 30-year.</p><p><u>Equities</u>: The protection of capital to miss the big downside moves, as well as the aggressive entries near the lows to maximize profits in the moves and keeping it as profit in your portfolio. A large part of my work is about making sure that you'll be in tune with the major moves in the indexes.</p><p><u>Currencies</u>: A comprehensive look at the major currency pairs every week. These pairs can drive some of the major changes in world economics. Being aware of these changes when they occur can help you position for new strategies and selections as the changes happen.</p><p>Global markets are important to support major uptrends in the North American markets. A summary of this information enables you to be aware of country ETFs that are doing well to help you diversify your portfolio across global markets.</p><hr><p>Again, the purpose of the subscription service is to give you a concise one-hour video of information to keep you abreast of the long term trends and places to look for big setups. This is not a daily suggestion box or a chat facility. It is for serious investors, with small or large amounts of capital to deploy so that you know when the positive winds are at your back while looking for gains and protecting capital.</p><p>Enjoy your week!</p>After 7 days of trying to break above, we finally notched new highs on the $NDX! I kept wondering if we would ever get to the land of the new high ground! Apple (AAPL) was one of the stocks powering higher, giving us a path over the zone of resistance. The SPY ETF tracks the S&amp;P 500 and includes dividends; that chart made a new high, but the $SPX came up just short.On the video, I mentioned the $SPX made a new high, but I was wrong, as it was a fraction short. It was the SPY (that includes dividends) that made the new high. As with all good things, we now need to see the market not...Software StumblesGreg Schnelltag:stockcharts.com,2019-10-21:post-182062020-01-06T06:40:57Z2019-10-21T14:32:12Z<p>The software names have had a rough go of it lately, and that drama continued Friday. The industry group had another down day, kicking off Monday on a muted note.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2019/10/21/1b6e7062-9e3e-40c3-8fbc-efecdc6fd6d7.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24DJUSSW&amp;p=D&amp;yr=0&amp;mn=10&amp;dy=0&amp;i=p28716202923&amp;a=694339215')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>The bigger picture picture that seems to be evolving is that tech not holding up its leadership role, as I mentioned in <a href="https://stockcharts.com/articles/chartwatchers/2019/10/more-stalls-than-a-california-431.html" target="_blank">my ChartWatchers article</a> over the weekend.</p><p>Sometimes it is difficult to keep track of the individual names if you haven't created a ChartList. On the weekend video, I demonstrated how to build a software industry group chartlist, how to sort it, delete stocks out of it, save it, alter it and create new sort orders. The beauty of having multiple chartlists is that it allows you to focus in on an industry level, rather than having a wall of broad data from the S&amp;P 500 coming in and making it difficult to see where the market leadership is.</p><p>In the example above, software companies as a whole are making lower highs in relative strength and are now making lower lows as well. This new three-month low in relative strength (shown in purple) is an important clue towards overall technology health. This will be an important one to watch over the coming days.</p><p>If you would like to catch the video, you can follow <a href="https://youtu.be/YwxlilP4GTE" target="_blank">this link</a>.</p><p target="_blank"><a href="https://youtu.be/YwxlilP4GTE" target="_blank"><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2019/10/21/b6859906-5f48-4577-9f7c-6acc45a2ba30.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></a></p><p target="_blank">Also, if you would like to connect with my new newsletter service, go to <a href="https://www.gregschnell.com/private-investors" target="_blank"><strong>GregSchnell.com</strong></a><strong> </strong>and click on the "Private Investors" tab. </p>The software names have had a rough go of it lately, and that drama continued Friday. The industry group had another down day, kicking off Monday on a muted note.The bigger picture picture that seems to be evolving is that tech not holding up its leadership role, as I mentioned in my ChartWatchers article over the weekend.Sometimes it is difficult to keep track of the individual names if you haven't created a ChartList. On the weekend video, I demonstrated how to build a software industry group chartlist, how to sort it, delete stocks out of it, save it, alter it and create new sort...