In the broadcast today: USD and CAD Outlook ahead of Important
Trading Week. As we prepare for another busy trading week that will
culminate with employment data from the U.S. and Canada, we take a close
look at the USD and CAD and examine the prospects for a bearish
breakout in the USD/CAD pair that could open the door to a test of the
parity level between these two currency majors, we continue to keep an
eye on the EUR as the EUR/USD currency
pair maintains above $1.30 and the GBP continues to roll vs. USD, we
note the anticipated bearish breakout for the USD against the JPY, we
list the Top 10 economic events that will impact the major
currencies in the week ahead, we examine
some of
the consensus forecasts for the upcoming economic data, we highlight
the market's
reaction to the Japanese CPI and Industrial Production, the Euro-zone
HICP, the Canadian GDP, and the U.S. GDP and Consumer Sentiment,
we
discuss new forecasts from Citigroup and Royal Bank of Canada,
and prepare for the trading week
ahead.

July 29, 2010

In the broadcast today: Is the JPY Bound to Revisit 14-year Highs vs.
USD? Ahead of a sequence of important economic data from Japan, we
focus on the JPY and explore the potential for the Yen to re-test its
14-year high against the USD, we analyze the latest
trend developments with the USD/JPY
currency
pair, we note the bullish stance of the EUR/USD pair climbing to a new
multi-month high above $1.31, we follow up on the NZD after the Reserve
Bank
of New Zealand interest rate announcement, we
highlight
the market's
reaction to the Euro-zone Economic Sentiment and the U.S. Jobless
Claims,
we
discuss new forecasts from Bank of New York-Mellon, Standard Bank
and UBS,
and prepare for the busy trading session
ahead.

John Person will be having his monthly market outlook - some of you already know how John’s Techniques have helped many traders identify large market moves and profit handsomely! This time will be no different John promises not to pull any punches. John will:

·Cover some of the market sectors that best perform in different economic phases.

·Cover stocks and commodities picks that perform best during specific times of the year from a seasonal perspective.

·Show you how to use ONE of his powerful price indicators available to determine whether you should be BUYING dips or SELLING rallies.

·AND as if all of these factors weren’t enough, John will introduce you to another factor and force of trading – Norman Hallett of The DISCIPLINE OF TRADING.

As part of John’s efforts to complete a session with SOLID information and training, John has asked Norman to participate on giving our subscribers some of his powerful views on this subject to help our clients put better emphasis on the way they trade.

Well… when you have a Master on Trading and a Master of Mental training the forces are with YOU!

You've had your coffee and your first trade signal is before you. Confidence high. Trade made. First loss. Not a problem. You understood before you started that successful traders both win and lose and “losing is part of the overall winning”.

You've also heard more then once that “successful traders don't win on every trade.” Moving on, still confident. Next trade made. Another loss, but this one hurt your pride a little because you got stopped out early in the trade, and then the market rebounded and would have hit your profit target if you weren't stopped out.

You double check. Yep, you placed the stop where your trading system told you to place it.You kind of had a feeling that the early weakness in the market was just profit-taking from the previous day's trading, but you're trading a system and you must stick to it. Wounded, but resilient.

After a good night's sleep and a few mouse clicks, your new daily trades are in front of you. Hey, this one looks good! It's a little bit more risk than yesterday's trades had, but look at that profit potential! With a smiling face, the trade is executed.

With a nice start to the trade, you're feeling good and you've moved your stop to breakeven, just like your system said. Surprise piece of news - market reverses - blows through your stop - an “unexpected” loss. Is something wrong with the system? Has the overall market “personality” changed, affecting your system to the Core, rendering all your back-testing irrelevant? Your confidence turns to doubt.

You decide to “watch” the next trade… I mean, isn't it wise to make sure the system gets back on track before you “throw good money after bad?”Isn't that what a conservative trader does? Trade watched. It wins!

In your head, you beat yourself up a little because you know that when you started your “live” trading, you made an agreement with yourself to take the first 10 trades “no matter what”… and here you wimped-out and missed a big winner that would have gotten you even.

What's happening?!!

What's happening is that you are out of control.Your emotions are ruling your trading. The above scenario plays out in every trader from time to time.. newbee and veteran alike.

The winning trader senses what is happening and nips it in the bud. The winning trader spend time EVERY DAY, working on “the discipline of trading”. Reads a chapter in his favorite psychological trading book, scans the “ten commandments of trading” that hangs on the wall over his/her desk, listens to his/her mental training software for futures traders… Something… Every Day… before trading begins.

There are many more losing traders than winning traders… and it's seldom about the trading system.In my career, I've come across at least 50 systems that I consider A+, yet I know for a fact that MOST traders that have traded on these systems have lost.Why? They were not in control of their emotions.

Are you?

(Don't miss out on the free webinar, August 4th, featuring Norman Hallett and John Person! Register NOW!)

July 28, 2010

It’s getting hot here in the mid west, not a surprise it’s the end of July. That in itself is a scary though as it seems we just celebrated the 4th of July. Boy has time passed by quickly.

Trading this month can bring some opportunities; however it generally is a very light volume trading month due to the fact that many traders and investors not only here in the US but globally take vacations.

According to the work in my book the commodity traders almanac 2011 the S&P 500 has shown a tendency to see strength lasting into early September it's interesting to note that in 2008 stocks actually posted a mild pain in the month of August from July's closing price. Moreover, the same situation developed in 2009 where we experienced a substantial gain in equities through the month of August. The question begs will what will 2011 bring as many investors traders economists and pundits debate whether the economy can continue to grow above the 3% level with high unemployment versus US corporations who have been announcing better-than-expected earnings with both top-line and bottom-line revenue growth.

From a technical perspective looking at the advance decline indicator we see that we are closing in closer to the April highs, if the equity markets follow suit that could bring the S&P's back to a level near 1140 sometime during the second half of August. In order for this outlook to show promise,I would like to see in the first week of trading during the month of August a key critical support level to hold near 1075.

Without any major negative surprises in the monthly unemployment report due out August 6 we stand a strong chance to maintain a summertime rally this year as well.

To find out more about upcoming seasonal trades log into a free webinar, I will be discussing more on seasonal trade set-ups.

In the broadcast today: How Far Could the GBP Rally vs. USD Extend?
In light of the recent return of risk appetite and the
better-than-expected U.K. economic data, we explore the factors that
could continue to fuel further GBP strengthening and ponder how far
could the Pound's rally extend against the USD, we analyze the latest
trend developments with the GBP/USD
currency
pair, we keep an eye on the EUR/USD pair's efforts to sustain above
$1.30, we take a close look at the AUD and NZD ahead of the Reserve Bank
of New Zealand interest rate announcement, we
highlight
the market's
reaction to the Australian CPI and the U.S. Durable Goods Orders,
we
discuss new forecasts from Bank of New York-Mellon, Commonwealth Bank
and UBS,
and prepare for the trading session
ahead.

July 27, 2010

In the broadcast today: AUD and NZD: The Assault on USD from "Down
Under". With the AUD and NZD managing to break above mid-term resistance
levels against the USD, we take a close look at the currencies "down
under" ahead of the important economic events from Australia and New
Zealand scheduled for release in the next 48 hours, we
analyze the latest trend developments with the AUD/USD and NZD/USD
currency
pairs, we continue to monitor the bullish breakouts in the EUR/USD and
GBP/USD pairs, we note the strengthening of the USD vs. JPY, we
highlight
the market's
reaction to the German Gfk Consumer Sentiment, the U.S. Home Price Index
and Consumer Confidence,
we
discuss new forecasts from Citigroup, Standard Bank and UBS,
and prepare for the trading session
ahead.

There is a saying: “As Steel goes, so goes the market.” There is no question that X is the market leader, its bellwether. American Can, General Electric, Westinghouse, American Telephone, and a few other stocks, are also termed market leaders. They are, but the market will follow Steel when every other stock loses its leadership. This was particularly well illustrated, I think, in October, 1930, during the period of persistent liquidation. For days, American Can did not break; it held like a rock. Steel, however, led the market in the decline, or at least sagged simultaneously. I believe that if Steel had withstood the pressure, the market would have halted its drift likewise.

By the way, when you hear loose talk about “support-orders” in Steel, Can, and other leaders—when you are told: “They are going to support the market”—take out your pencil, add up the volume of transactions, and figure the millions “they” would need in order to support the market. Think in the same way when you hear stories to the effect that “they are going to run Steel up ten points.” I do not imply that Steel is not ever supported, or that powerful interests do not push Steel forward at times—for they do—but they do it when the market is technically set for the maneuver. There are no interests in Wall Street powerful enough to stem the tide of wholesale public liquidation (this was proved in October, 1929); nor have they enough money to run Steel up 10 points, when they know from the market’s position that thousands upon thousands of shares of Steel would be offered for sale all the way up. It is simple enough to sit around a brokerage office and glibly spin yarns about the “big fellows.” Forget it; if any of your informants knew them well enough to know what they were doing, they would not be sitting in a broker’s office talking to you and me.

To return to Steel: watch Steel closely at all times. Pay the same attention to its action that you do to your own stock. Your stock will probably rally with the market, if your selection has been correct; it may follow the market, or advance ahead of it; but it should not go against the trend. (If it does, check your position quickly, because when the general list does not follow Steel it is quite likely that many stocks are being sold under cover of strength in Steel.) Steel is a particularly helpful indicator because it is always active, thousands of shares being traded daily; and it never swings wildly, its market usually moving by eighths of a point.

If you hold an inactive stock (which is not recommended for short-turn trading), and for some time there have been no transactions in that stock, yet in the meanwhile Steel has reacted two or three points, it is well to “quote” your stock (obtain the bid and offered prices from the floor through your orderclerk). This will give you your “market;” otherwise, you may be disappointed when you finally see a transaction some dollars away from the last sale. Of course, if Steel is advancing and you are long, you need not feel uneasy; but it is none the less a comfort to have the “quote.”

If you intend to watch the tape constantly, it is good practice to obtain the market on Steel, the bid and offered prices, shortly after the opening. From these you can detect whether Steel is being bid for, or whether it is offered below the bid price. Let me explain: assume that the market on Steel at five minutes after 10 o’clock is 149¼ bid and 149½ asked. If you notice 3,000 shares of Steel pass soon after at 149¼, you know at once that someone has “hit the bid,” that in this block of Steel the selling has been more urgent than the buying. If it happens the other way about, with the transaction at 149¾, you will know that someone is bidding for stock and is willing to pay more than the asked price.

July 26, 2010

In the broadcast today: Will the EUR and GBP Break Higher vs. USD? As
the markets continue to digest the results of the European banks stress
tests, we focus on a number of major currencies approaching important
multi-month resistance levels against the USD and explore the potential
for the EUR, GBP, AUD, CAD and NZD to break higher vs. the Greenback, we
analyze the latest developments with the EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and
USD/CAD currency
pairs, we follow up on the anticipated strengthening of the NZD and note
the bullish breakout in the NZD/USD pair, we highlight
the market's
reaction to the EU banks stress tests, the U.S. New Home Sales and
corporate earnings,
we
discuss new forecasts from Goldman Sachs, Royal Bank of Canada, BNP
Paribas and HSBC,
and prepare for the trading session
ahead.

July 25, 2010

The EUR/USD moved out of the pitchfork channel above the 50-day moving average and has broken now the 100-day average. Indicators are oversold and we will have a short term correction now. It is hard to say if the lowest point is already behind us. We will have to see if the next down move will move past the lowest low point. It is possible that we are making an up correction wave {B} and that a last correction wave {C} will come next. We only can wait and see to be sure. That last down move would bring the Euro to the level of the previous long term correction wave [4] of the long term up move as you can see in the monthly chart, where price finds support on the 200 months' moving average. Short term we expect an extension in the {B} up wave to a level of about 1.35.

After a short term correction the previous week the index continued the up move.

Price broke out of the downward pitchfork and Friday the closing price broke the downtrend line. Short term we can expect resistance from the 200 and 100-days moving average and the 50% retracement level.

I think this will at least slow down the up move. There is however still some room in the indicators for a further up move. I expect a higher index the following days.

Both the manual and the SATS2 automatic long trades are open.

I am using a slightly faster SATS2 now on the daily chart. I am also working on a new SATS5 system expert. First results look good with higher and more reliable profit rates than SATS2. If all is ready we will be using this expert in the future. SATS5 works fine even in very small time frames like 1 minute on the Emini future and Forex EUR/USD. More later on...

July 24, 2010

July
23, 2010
(Allthingsforex.com)
– As the
markets
continue to
“digest”
the results of
the stress
tests on 91
European banks
and ponder the
future of the
euro, the busy
trading week
ahead will
deliver another
mix of
corporate
earnings,
inflation and
economic growth
data from some
of the largest
economies
around the
globe.

In
preparation for
the new trading
week, here is a
list of the Top
10 spotlight
economic events
that every
currency trader
should pay
attention
to.

1.
USD-
U.S. New Home
Sales,
an important
gauge of
housing market
conditions
measuring the
number of newly
constructed
homes with a
committed sale
during the
previous month,
Mon., July 26,
10:00 am, ET.

The
smaller-than-estimated
decline in
existing home
sales last week
is forecasted
to be followed
by an increase
in the sales of
new homes by up
to 330 K in
June from 300 K
in May.

High
unemployment
and slow jobs
creation could
undermine the
confidence of
U.S. consumers
as the
Conference
Board’s
index is
expected to
register a
reading of 51.5
compared with
52.9 in the
previous
month.

The
Reserve Bank of
Australia
policy makers
recently stated
that they will
watch very
closely the
debt crisis in
the Euro-zone,
along with the
latest
inflation data
from Australia,
when making
future
decisions on
interest rates.
High
inflationary
pressures
should support
the case for
further rate
hikes from the
central bank as
the quarterly
released
inflation gauge
rises by 1.0%
in Q2 2010 from
0.9% in the
first quarter.

The
U.S.
manufacturers
may need to
speed up
production
based on the
anticipated
increase in
orders for
durable goods
by up to 0.9%
m/m in June,
compared with
the 0.6% m/m
decline in
May.

5.
USD-
U.S. Federal
Reserve Beige
Book,
a report on
economic
conditions in
the 12 Federal
Reserve
Districts,
based on
anecdotal
evidence
considered by
the FOMC
members when
making monetary
policy
decisions,
Wed., July 28,
2:00 pm, ET.

Two
weeks ahead of
the Fed’s
August monetary
policy meeting,
traders will
watch closely
if the Beige
Book’s
assessment on
the economy
confirms the
Fed
Chairman’s
“unusually
uncertain”
economic
outlook.

The
recent
strengthening
of the Kiwi
against the
U.S. dollar and
other
lower-yielding
currencies
should not come
as a surprise
since the
Reserve Bank of
New Zealand is
widely-anticipated
to follow the
footsteps of
the Bank of
Canada and
deliver another
0.25% interest
rate hike,
bringing the
official cash
rate in New
Zealand to
3.0%.

With
deflation still
posing a threat
to the Japanese
economy, the
index is
expected to
show inflation
remaining below
the 0% level,
down by -1.2%
m/m in June
from -1.3% in
May.

8.
EUR-
Euro-zone HICP-
Harmonized
Index of
Consumer
Prices,
the main
measure of
inflation in
the Euro-zone
and the
European
Union’s
equivalent to
the CPI-
Consumer Price
Index, Fri.,
July 30, 5:00
am, ET.

After a
brief pullback,
inflationary
pressures in
the Euro-zone
are forecasted
to rise by 1.8%
y/y in July
from 1.4% y/y
in the previous
month.

Although the
Canadian
economy may not
be immune from
the recent
global economic
slowdown, the
monthly GDP
growth could
pick up
slightly by
0.1% in June
from the flat
reading of 0%
in May.

10.
USD-
U.S. GDP- Gross
Domestic
Product,
the main
measure of
economic
activity and
growth in the
world’s
largest
economy, Fri.,
July 30, 8:30
am,
ET.

This main
spotlight event
of the week
will bring the
preliminary
estimate of the
U.S. GDP, which
is forecasted
to be in line
with the
market’s
expectations of
slower 2.5%
economic growth
in Q2 2010,
compared with
2.7% in the
first
quarter.

In the broadcast today: What's Next for the EUR & USD after the
Stress Tests? In the aftermath of the official release of the stress
tests on 91 European banks, we examine the outcome of this important
event and ponder the future fate of the EUR, the USD and other currency
majors, we examine the latest developments with the EUR/USD currency
pair, we follow up on the anticipated strengthening of the GBP as a
result of the positive U.K. economic growth data, we
list the Top 10 economic events that will impact the major
currencies in the week ahead, we examine
some of
the consensus forecasts for the upcoming economic data, we highlight
the market's
reaction to the EU banks stress tests, the German Ifo Business Sentiment
Index, and the U.K. GDP,
we
discuss new forecasts from Bank of New York-Mellon, BNP Paribas and
Commerzbank,
and prepare for the trading week
ahead.

July 22, 2010

In the broadcast today: Awaiting the Major Catalyst for the EUR &
USD. A day ahead of the official release of the EU banks stress tests
results, we continue to ponder the possible outcomes of this crucial for
the fate of the EUR event that could serve as a major catalyst driving
the future trends of the EUR, USD and other currency majors,
we analyze the latest developments with the
EUR/USD currency pair, we note the strengthening of the GBP on
better-than-expected economic data and ahead of tomorrow's U.K. GDP
estimate,
we highlight
the market's
reaction to the Fed Chairman's assessment on the economy,
the U.K. Retail Sales, the Euro-zone Composite PMI, and the U.S. Jobless
Claims and Existing Home Sales,
we
discuss new forecasts from Societe Generale and Royal Bank of Scotland,
and prepare for the busy trading session
ahead.

The markets have been nice and choppy.For most this means there has been more money lost than made.

Fed Chair Ben Bernanke spooked the market by verbally expressing his concern over an uncertain outlook.Investors immediately hit the sell button and with massive sell stop orders working below, the indices had little chance of avoiding the slide.Also, rumors circulating the CME floor suggest that once of the catalysts to the move was a standing 600 lot stop order in the large S&P futures pit that, once elected, triggered an impressive down-draft.

Specifically, Bernanke stated that the U.S. economy faces "unusually uncertain" prospects but mentioned that the Fed hadn't used all of its resources and would be ready to take further steps to bolster growth if needed.Overall the testimony was less than optimistic but it was also less than surprising.There weren't any startlingly new revelations.

From a technical standpoint, the market is highly mixed.We have been noting 1066ish as the pivot in the S&P (ie. the make or break area) but it has also been acting as a magnet and this makes it tough to pick a direction.In yesterday's newsletter we mentioned that we couldn't be bullish 30 handles from the day's lows and that playing the other side would be a better play, but we didn't expect the fall-out that occurred.Going into tomorrow, we are uncertain of the intermediate -term direction but seasonal tendencies suggest that the markets could go lower before moving higher and the S&P failed at its down-trend line.That said, the session closed near the lows and this usually paves the way for back and fill trade overnight.In other words, if you want to be a bear...don't chase the market lower; selling on rallies might be the play but a "normal" bounce could see prices as high as 1075ish in the S&P.

Investors clamored to Treasuries as many of them are rethinking the "risk trade".Money is clearly moving toward safe havens such as the U.S. dollar and the U.S. backed fixed income products...particularly short-term instruments.

Most of the day's buying came on the heels of testimony by Bernanke that suggests a largely uncertain economic outlook and low inflation (a bit short of deflation) and given the proposed budget cuts supply concerns have been put on the back burner.Even if large auctions continued Bernanke reassured the markets that foreign demand for Treasuries remains strong.

All in all, Bernake's statements weren't necessarily shocking nor were they new. Nonetheless, the day's events were overall bullish for bonds and notes.Therefore we feel as though we could finally reach our upside target in the September bond futures of the mid 129's to 130ish and just over 124 in the 10-year note.Like we said yesterday: "Nobody has a crystal ball, but the environment is ripe for a bull trap.It seems somewhat likely that Treasuries could see some sort of spike high as buy stops are elected but we doubt that any large gains would be sustainable."

If you have been patiently waiting to play this market from the downside, the mentioned areas should be a good place to start.

In the broadcast today: Will the GBP Rally vs. USD Lose Steam? In a
week filled with uncertainty and market jitters, we explore some warning
signs that may point to potential exhaustion of the recent GBP rally
against the USD,
we analyze the
latest trend developments
with the GBP/USD and EUR/GBP currency pairs, we continue to monitor the
EUR/USD pair ahead of the release of the EU banks stress tests results,
we highlight
the market's
reaction to the U.S. corporate earnings, the Fed Chairman's report on
monetary policy,
the Bank of England Meeting Minutes, and the U.S. Weekly Oil
Inventories,
we
discuss new forecasts from Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and Lloyds Banking
Group,
and prepare for the trading session
ahead.