Atheist Nexus2017-08-18T05:44:58ZBeth KZhttp://atheistnexus.org/profile/BethKulaczhttp://api.ning.com:80/files/XfsrGES94CGKGUKKbySTPR31viscrLylssai-fPummqfcwKHRLqUf0qTCaIY21JKOZVx*vX9Jfk-DqWTX2x4r5rHoRi3WSjf/GamerEvolution.jpeg?width=48&height=48&crop=1%3A1http://atheistnexus.org/group/environmentalatheists/forum/topic/listForContributor?user=2net1ccke34nm&feed=yes&xn_auth=noSchroders' Climate Progress Dashboardtag:atheistnexus.org,2017-08-10:2182797:Topic:27599402017-08-10T17:52:20.168ZBeth KZhttp://atheistnexus.org/profile/BethKulacz
<p><span>Schroders</span><span>, a British global investment firm, warns its investors to<span> base decisions on outcomes that are likely (based on science), <span>instead of overly simplistic analysis [presumably from a free market economics perspective]</span>.…</span></span></p>
<p></p>
<p><span>Schroders</span><span>, a British global investment firm, warns its investors to<span> base decisions on outcomes that are likely (based on science), <span>instead of overly simplistic analysis [presumably from a free market economics perspective]</span>.</span></span></p>
<p><span><span><a href="https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/http%3A%2F%2Fs3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com%2Ffta-assets-development%2Fez%2Fimages%2F5%2F8%2F2%2F2%2F102285-1-eng-GB%2Fschroders_building_1.jpg?width=700&amp;source=ftadviser" target="_blank"><img src="https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/http%3A%2F%2Fs3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com%2Ffta-assets-development%2Fez%2Fimages%2F5%2F8%2F2%2F2%2F102285-1-eng-GB%2Fschroders_building_1.jpg?source=ftadviser&amp;width=450" width="450" class="align-center"/></a></span></span></p>
<p></p>
<p><a href="https://www.ftadviser.com/2016/07/26/investments/uk/schroders-income-maximiser-guru-see-to-exit-PaVASNXiMbxRLOrTuK8CKM/article.html" target="_blank">image source</a></p>
<p><span><span>As a science literate person, I'm constantly amazed at how t<span>he stock market responds to Trump's deregulation. How could all those rich investors have no clue about climate destabilization?</span></span></span></p>
<blockquote><p><span><span>... to inform investors of climate risks that analysts at Schroders believe are not being factored into investment decisions.</span></span></p>
<p><span><span><span>"<span style="background: yellow;">Investors who</span> are unprepared or who <span style="background: yellow;">have relied on overly simplistic analysis</span> risk losses and missed opportunities,"...</span></span></span></p>
<p>It breaks down what would happen to global temperatures if we continue on our current business-as-usual course, based on 12 different measures.</p>
<p>Those measures include 'political ambition,' which looks at the existing pledges made by governments; progress from major corporations on issues like 'climate finance' (new investment in efforts to curb or adapt to climate change) and 'carbon prices' (taxing carbon dioxide emitters); technological progress on factors like renewable energy adoption; as well as the potential future impact of current levels of oil, gas and coal production if they continue.</p>
<p>... the most alarming projection—and perhaps the most relevant in terms of assessing where the worst risk is—can be found in the fine print.</p>
<p>... <span style="background: yellow;">the most important measure on the dashboard relates to the current rate of oil and gas production</span>. Astonishingly, Schroders finds that <span style="background: yellow;">this rate, as it stands, puts us on course to hit a global average temperature rise of 7.8℃ by 2100, if nothing changes.</span></p>
<p>The briefing clarifies that all measures on the dashboard, including oil and gas production which depends on a wide range of factors—supply, demand, the gas glut, geopolitics, developments in renewable energy and storage, and so on—will likely change over several decades.</p>
<p>"As a result, the dashboard conclusions must be seen as measures of the paths we are currently on ..."</p>
<p><span>... the current oil and gas scenario was derived from production data in BP's 2017<i> Statistical Review of World Energy</i> <a href="http://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html" target="_blank"><span>report</span></a>. </span></p>
<p>Schroders also <a href="http://www.schroders.com/globalassets/global-assets/english/pdf/c00140-climatedashboard_section.pdf" target="_blank">warns</a> that a 6 ℃ or above pathway would lead to "up to a 50% loss in global GDP." Of course, massive GDP losses are just one element. Scenarios developed by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) show that <span style="background: yellow;">a 6 ℃ average temperature rise or above will lead rapidly to an increasingly uninhabitable planet</span>. [emphasis mine, order changed]</p>
</blockquote>
<p><a href="https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/433yg9/global-investment-firm-warns-78-degrees-of-global-warming-is-possible" target="_blank">Global Investment Firm Warns 7.8 Degrees of Global Warming Is Possible</a></p> Climate-Changed Atmospheric Circulationtag:atheistnexus.org,2017-07-14:2182797:Topic:27561662017-07-14T15:44:07.873ZBeth KZhttp://atheistnexus.org/profile/BethKulacz
<p>At Arctic Sea Ice Blog, <a href="http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1834.msg120767.html#msg120767" target="_blank">Hyperion</a> describes major changes of the atmosphere. The top of the atmosphere is higher (because heated air expands),</p>
<blockquote>The tropopause transition to the stratosphere seems to have lifted planet wide.</blockquote>
<p>and there's a shift of warmth from the northern to the southern hemisphere. The 10 hpa level is the highest…</p>
<p>At Arctic Sea Ice Blog, <a href="http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1834.msg120767.html#msg120767" target="_blank">Hyperion</a> describes major changes of the atmosphere. The top of the atmosphere is higher (because heated air expands),</p>
<blockquote>The tropopause transition to the stratosphere seems to have lifted planet wide.</blockquote>
<p>and there's a shift of warmth from the northern to the southern hemisphere. The 10 hpa level is the highest air.</p>
<blockquote><p> And over 30km up at the 10hpa level we have a planet wide movement of air from the north polar region to the south pole, creating an east to west trade winds belt covering the entire northern hemisphere, and a powerful up to over 400kmph west to east belt covering most of the southern hemisphere where the flow is continuing south.</p>
</blockquote>
<p><a href="http://api.ning.com:80/files/G-ZYqkVRgA4Ayc-tg9Wm0fofmMBUs4vasJc0LrOBq5OWwEQhhvmbz6Q90qpSTpETurzt-YiZupDPeybZn1E0q2KnO33w*bfp/10HPA71417.jpg" target="_self"><img src="http://api.ning.com:80/files/G-ZYqkVRgA4Ayc-tg9Wm0fofmMBUs4vasJc0LrOBq5OWwEQhhvmbz6Q90qpSTpETurzt-YiZupDPeybZn1E0q2KnO33w*bfp/10HPA71417.jpg?width=721" width="721" class="align-center"/></a></p>
<p>image source is earth.nullschool.net</p>
<p>Notice that <span style="background: yellow;">the blue band separating</span> the east-to-west wind of <span style="background: yellow;">the northern hemisphere from</span> the west-to-east belt of <span style="background: yellow;">the southern hemisphere is waaaay south of the equator</span>.</p>
<p>The lighter color of the southern wind belt indicates that it's blowing faster.</p>
<p>Then look at the light-wind circular pattern across the blue band in the southern Pacific. Notice that wind from the northern belt is feeding into the southern belt through this vortex.</p>
<p>What Hyperion is saying is that warmer air at the highest level is feeding from the northern to the southern hemisphere. It continues to shift south pole ward until it gets to the pole, then descends - cooled - and becomes the Adibatic winds from the South pole across the continent. This circulation pushes surface air back toward the north pole, warming and gaining moisture as it crossed the Equator. Then that warmer, moister air pushes back toward the Arctic.</p>
<p><a href="http://api.ning.com:80/files/G-ZYqkVRgA7WJQ-VwFEbkKWoDFC0zE1s*u7QaWCtiIIlHeYjaY5XmU369XoBOFPeDoXRanZuZ2OAmQP-Frqx1HOmDkDxt6m0/precipH2ONP.jpg" target="_self"><img src="http://api.ning.com:80/files/G-ZYqkVRgA7WJQ-VwFEbkKWoDFC0zE1s*u7QaWCtiIIlHeYjaY5XmU369XoBOFPeDoXRanZuZ2OAmQP-Frqx1HOmDkDxt6m0/precipH2ONP.jpg" width="570" class="align-center"/></a></p>
<p>In this nullschool image of precipitable water water, the blue tongue shows water vapor pulled toward the North Pole. If the air were cold it would be dry, because the water would have precipitated out, and the map would show brown. This addition of moisture over the Arctic will accelerate melt because water vapor is a powerful greenhouse gas. Even small quantities, just in the Summer, will have a measurable effect.</p>
<p>Basically, Hyperion describes another positive feedback loop.</p> Engineering Infrastructure for Climate Changetag:atheistnexus.org,2017-05-28:2182797:Topic:27505322017-05-28T19:32:45.919ZBeth KZhttp://atheistnexus.org/profile/BethKulacz
<p><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2017/may/25/global-climate-projections-help-civil-engineers-plan" target="_blank">Global climate projections help civil engineers plan</a></p>
<blockquote><p><span>A new study helps civil engineers account for ongoing climate change in infrastructure design</span></p>
<p><span><span> As the Earth warms, new stresses are applied to our buildings, bridges, roads, houses, and other…</span></span></p>
</blockquote>
<p><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2017/may/25/global-climate-projections-help-civil-engineers-plan" target="_blank">Global climate projections help civil engineers plan</a></p>
<blockquote><p><span>A new study helps civil engineers account for ongoing climate change in infrastructure design</span></p>
<p><span><span> As the Earth warms, new stresses are applied to our buildings, bridges, roads, houses, and other structures.</span></span></p>
<p><span>... planning for infrastructure relies upon a reasonable estimation of future climate changes. To help quantify such an estimate for the civil engineering community, </span><a href="http://www.icevirtuallibrary.com/doi/abs/10.1680/jfoen.17.00002" class="u-underline">a recent paper</a><span> was published by the </span><a href="http://www.icevirtuallibrary.com/toc/jfoen/current" class="u-underline">Institution of Civil Engineering Journal of Forensic Engineering</a>...</p>
<p><span>In the paper, we showed that we expect the Earth to warm by about 4°C more (7°F) over the present temperature by the year 2100.</span></p>
<p><span>In the paper, we conclude that engineers know enough to begin to prepare. </span></p>
</blockquote>
<p><span>So in 83 years models predict 4°C more than today's 1.1°C to 1.2°C rise, roughly 5.2 °C rise. And engineers "know enough to begin to prepare" building buildings and bridges now, that will serve us well after civilization collapsed at around 4°C rise. Good to know. That's reassuring. So if your kid, born now, dies during civilization's collapse at the age of 60, his or her house/road/bridge will do fine in the post-apocalypse world where the hundreds of nuclear power plants along coastlines and tidal rivers will have long since gone underwater.</span></p>
<p><span>What a helpful plan.</span></p>
<p><span>Just a reminder of the additional rise <em>already locked in</em> from <a href="https://robertscribbler.com/2017/05/25/too-huge-to-manage-new-studies-highlight-danger-in-failing-to-rapidly-cut-carbon-emissions-now/#comments" target="_blank">entropicman at RobertScribbler</a>. </span></p>
<blockquote><p><span>Using IPCC mid-range assumptions one can calculate how much warming has already been locked in. If we stopped emitting tomorrow, <span style="background: yellow;">in thirty years time</span> we would still see 1.6C due to 400ppm of CO2 alone. Add in other greenhouse gases and we have 525ppm CO2e. That will warm us by <span style="background: yellow;">2.6C</span>. [emphasis mine]</span></p>
</blockquote>
<p><span>Sometimes I wonder how serious scientists can publish this stuff with a straight face.</span></p>
<p><span><a href="http://boredomtherapy.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/depressed-dog-2.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="http://boredomtherapy.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/depressed-dog-2.jpg?width=250" width="250" class="align-center"/></a><a href="http://boredomtherapy.com/pet-depression-symptoms/" target="_blank">image source</a><br/></span></p>
<p></p> Extreme May Weather in Northern Hemispheretag:atheistnexus.org,2017-05-05:2182797:Topic:27474272017-05-05T23:05:06.406ZBeth KZhttp://atheistnexus.org/profile/BethKulacz
<p><a href="http://mashable.com/2017/05/03/extreme-weather-pattern-early-may-wavenumber-6/#47Fzn1CPOmqr" target="_blank">Early May weather pattern will be especially extreme in Northern Hemisphere…</a></p>
<p><a href="http://api.ning.com:80/files/1sb3nU2A-L-WjpDfloBLHIADY-Lb0qJHg8APf7LD1Y1Wa1bohi60sUTDFkGAvPsZ4mNeYXnmvVWTMU1KHkX2f7JBfxm0IdNf/countem6.jpg" target="_self"><img class="align-center" src="http://api.ning.com:80/files/1sb3nU2A-L-WjpDfloBLHIADY-Lb0qJHg8APf7LD1Y1Wa1bohi60sUTDFkGAvPsZ4mNeYXnmvVWTMU1KHkX2f7JBfxm0IdNf/countem6.jpg?width=450" width="450"></img></a></p>
<p></p>
<p></p>
<p></p>
<p><a href="http://mashable.com/2017/05/03/extreme-weather-pattern-early-may-wavenumber-6/#47Fzn1CPOmqr" target="_blank">Early May weather pattern will be especially extreme in Northern Hemisphere</a></p>
<p><a href="http://api.ning.com:80/files/1sb3nU2A-L-WjpDfloBLHIADY-Lb0qJHg8APf7LD1Y1Wa1bohi60sUTDFkGAvPsZ4mNeYXnmvVWTMU1KHkX2f7JBfxm0IdNf/countem6.jpg" target="_self"><img src="http://api.ning.com:80/files/1sb3nU2A-L-WjpDfloBLHIADY-Lb0qJHg8APf7LD1Y1Wa1bohi60sUTDFkGAvPsZ4mNeYXnmvVWTMU1KHkX2f7JBfxm0IdNf/countem6.jpg?width=450" width="450" class="align-center"/></a></p>
<p></p>
<p></p>
<p><a href="https://twitter.com/Weather_West/status/859516371939467266" target="_blank">image source</a></p>
<p>The jet stream in quasi-resonance. See six jet stream troughs, in blue above, where storms are likely to be stuck. You guessed it, due to Arctic warming.</p>
<blockquote><p>During the course of the next 10 days or more, the weather pattern across the Northern Hemisphere will feature an undulating, wavy jet stream that will be stuck in place, with storms backed up like cars on an interstate highway at rush hour. </p>
<p>Large dips in the jet stream, which is the narrow current of fast-flowing air at high altitudes that plays a crucial role in creating and steering weather systems, will lead to <strong>prolonged periods of cool, wet weather across the West and East Coasts of the U.S. Snow is even possible in parts of the Northeast U.S. during the second week of May.</strong> (Seriously.)</p>
<p>At the same time, <strong>unseasonably mild weather is projected to envelop Greenland and parts of Canada</strong>, potentially initiating an early start to the ice melt season there and melting remaining snow cover in Alberta and Nunavut.</p>
<p>And this is just part of the story. <strong>Extremes will also occur further east, across Europe, Russia, and eastern Asia</strong>.</p>
<p>... <span>historic extreme events, many of which are heightened by global warming, tend to be associated with these types of highly-amplified, nearly stuck weather patterns. </span></p>
<p>... <span>you should pay particularly close attention to forecasts during the next two weeks. </span> [emphasis mine]</p>
</blockquote> Wavenumber-5 and CA Wild Weathertag:atheistnexus.org,2017-04-09:2182797:Topic:27445762017-04-09T22:27:13.440ZBeth KZhttp://atheistnexus.org/profile/BethKulacz
<p><a href="https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/04/170406102621.htm" target="_blank">Scientists link California droughts, floods to distinctive atmospheric waves</a></p>
<p><strong>... wavenumber-5 forms when strong jet streams act as wave guides, tightening the otherwise meandering Rossby wave into the signature configuration of five highs and five lows. </strong>[emphasis mine]…</p>
<p></p>
<p><a href="https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/04/170406102621.htm" target="_blank">Scientists link California droughts, floods to distinctive atmospheric waves</a></p>
<p><strong>... wavenumber-5 forms when strong jet streams act as wave guides, tightening the otherwise meandering Rossby wave into the signature configuration of five highs and five lows. </strong>[emphasis mine]</p>
<p><a href="https://www2.ucar.edu/sites/default/files/news/2013/rossby-news-sm.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://www2.ucar.edu/sites/default/files/news/2013/rossby-news-sm.jpg" class="align-center"/></a></p>
<p></p>
<p><a href="https://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/news/10508/long-term-forecasts-heat-waves" target="_blank">image source</a></p>
<blockquote><p><span>The crippling wintertime droughts that struck California from 2013 to 2015, as well as this year's unusually wet California winter, appear to be associated with the same phenomenon: a distinctive wave pattern that emerges in the upper atmosphere and circles the globe.</span></p>
<p>Scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) found in a recent study that the persistent high-pressure ridge off the west coast of North America that blocked storms from coming onshore during the winters of 2013-14 and 2014-15 was associated with the wave pattern, which they call wavenumber-5. Follow-up work showed that wavenumber-5 emerged again this winter but with its high- and low-pressure features in a different position, allowing drenching storms from the Pacific to make landfall.</p>
<p>"This wave pattern is a global dynamic system that sometimes makes droughts or floods in California more likely to occur,"...</p>
<p><span>Wavenumber-5 consists of five pairs of alternating high- and low-pressure features that encircle the globe about six miles (10 kilometers) above the ground. It is a type of atmospheric phenomenon known as a Rossby wave,...</span></p>
<p><span><span>The slow-moving Rossby waves at times become almost stationary. When they do, the result can be persistent weather patterns that often lead to droughts, floods, and heat waves. Wavenumber-5 often has this stationary quality when it emerges during the northern winter, and, as a result, is associated with a greater likelihood of persistent extreme events.</span></span></p>
<p><span><span>... <span>the wave pattern may provide an additional source of predictability that sometimes may be more important than the impacts of sea surface temperature changes. </span></span></span></p>
<p><span><span><span>... <span> extremely heavy rainfall from December to February in certain regions of the tropical Pacific could double the probability that the extreme ridge associated with wavenumber-5 will form. </span></span></span></span></p>
</blockquote>
<p></p> 80 years to North Pole raintag:atheistnexus.org,2017-03-15:2182797:Topic:27407872017-03-15T00:04:52.128ZBeth KZhttp://atheistnexus.org/profile/BethKulacz
<p><a href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/2124366-forget-snow-rain-will-become-main-precipitation-in-the-arctic/" target="_blank">Forget snow, rain will become main precipitation in the Arctic</a></p>
<p><a href="https://d1o50x50snmhul.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/13160008/b6k2yj-800x533.jpg" target="_blank"><img class="align-center" src="https://d1o50x50snmhul.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/13160008/b6k2yj-800x533.jpg?width=400" width="400"></img></a></p>
<p>Climate researchers Richard Bintanja and Qinghua Ding found a <span>50% to 60% Arctic precipitation increase (mostly rain) between 2091 and 2100,…</span></p>
<p><a href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/2124366-forget-snow-rain-will-become-main-precipitation-in-the-arctic/" target="_blank">Forget snow, rain will become main precipitation in the Arctic</a></p>
<p><a href="https://d1o50x50snmhul.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/13160008/b6k2yj-800x533.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://d1o50x50snmhul.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/13160008/b6k2yj-800x533.jpg?width=400" width="400" class="align-center"/></a></p>
<p>Climate researchers Richard Bintanja and Qinghua Ding found a <span>50% to 60% Arctic precipitation increase (mostly rain) between 2091 and 2100, using <span>37 climate models.</span></span></p>
<blockquote><p>“No matter where you are in the world, a temperature increase means the air can hold more moisture.”</p>
<p>Sea ice coverage in the Arctic has been plummeting for decades, and the region has repeatedly set record lows in recent years. When sea ice retreats, it uncovers vast open waters. This massively increases evaporation, leading to more clouds and more precipitation. But <strong>instead of snow, the Arctic will receive downpours of rain. The cycle feeds itself – warming temperatures lead to more rain and more melting ice, which leads to more open water and even more rain</strong>. “If the current trend proceeds – and all indications are that it will go even faster than predicted – then we’ll have a sea-ice-free Arctic,” Bintanja says.</p>
<p>“<strong>Eighty years from now,</strong> we don’t know how much CO<span>2</span> there will be, but I’m sure <strong>it will be very warm in the Arctic</strong>. And anthropogenic causes will overwhelm anything else,” Ding says.</p>
<p>The rise in rainfall will cause a cascade of effects, he says. Rain can melt snow that usually reflects light, leaving the land to absorb more heat from the sun. The run-off from melting snow can alter the salinity of the Arctic Ocean, which can harm marine species.</p>
<p>Globally, precipitation is projected to increase by 2 per cent for every degree the planet warms, but in the Arctic that figure is double. By 2091, the Arctic will see a dramatic increase in overall precipitation and most of it won’t come in the form of snow – instead it will be rain.</p>
<p>... <span> the North Pole is likely to see the amount of yearly rain that usually falls at the edge of the Arctic in places like northern Norway or Alaska. </span>[order changed] [emphasis mine]</p>
</blockquote> Rapid Acidification of the Arctic Oceantag:atheistnexus.org,2017-03-02:2182797:Topic:27386542017-03-02T15:09:09.599ZBeth KZhttp://atheistnexus.org/profile/BethKulacz
<p><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/02/27/scientists-just-measured-a-rapid-growth-in-acidity-in-the-arctic-ocean-linked-to-climate-change/?utm_term=.6f057d869261" target="_blank">Scientists just measured a rapid growth in acidity in the Arctic ocean, linked to climate change…</a></p>
<p></p>
<p><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/02/27/scientists-just-measured-a-rapid-growth-in-acidity-in-the-arctic-ocean-linked-to-climate-change/?utm_term=.6f057d869261" target="_blank">Scientists just measured a rapid growth in acidity in the Arctic ocean, linked to climate change</a></p>
<p><a href="http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3228.epdf?referrer_access_token=Mn9rHC6qdhMcwpCG6WFOjNRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0O3pvK52WSAnpoyajZGIIzv2uD7QiD0OTJrS1r7m8JIhq1x9-MCnphtrN7V_qqzPtsFH0J6Q5_HWteSlfgU7B6GaSDvod3lZry6Vwh2cmpALTR2378HVYpYy9O9rSkDLMpWrfcIQOKdedh8anaHdvvU5DGjOuN8QEwKPWIAZ7dlso9qBpxo45lvKVL8stu6SmrAFhd6Jx4CPTnbT6NXFsQgmWm7DIq13SOXbBTA2wOQ1DlNcHzz__HziURz23eC646UJvgSrCFUZHUvry9vAexq5mZWG6xY-4EHJ_qOp4phThNyu55_etN9KJmo8LCyIJ-3lJ0d1WOGZ2EV7v3V84nko3_Za3YFYn7IZhmdGfk3SA%3D%3D&amp;tracking_referrer=www.washingtonpost.com" target="_blank">Increase in acidifying water in the western Arctic Ocean</a></p>
<p><a href="https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_960w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2015/12/15/Production/Daily/A-Section/Images/Arctic_Report_Card-03315.jpg&amp;w=1484" target="_blank"><img src="https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-apps/imrs.php?src=https://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_960w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2015/12/15/Production/Daily/A-Section/Images/Arctic_Report_Card-03315.jpg&amp;w=1484&amp;width=350" width="350" class="align-center"/></a></p>
<p>When ocean water becomes so acidic it dissovles aragonite, shelled organisms fail. Such aragonite undersaturated areas of the Arctic Ocean are rapidly increasing in depth and expanse.</p>
<blockquote><p>By 2010, the undersaturated area had expanded from 5 percent to about 31 percent of the water column, the study suggests. And the scientists found undersaturation at up to 250 meters deep and in locations above 85 degrees North latitude. In other words, the acidifying zone had expanded both northward into the Arctic Circle and deeper into the water. The researchers point out that the levels of aragonite in these areas are below the point scientists believe is a threat to marine organisms. </p>
<p>... the researchers decided to conduct a model simulation to see how Arctic acidification might progress in the future.</p>
<p>... <strong>their projections suggest that the entire surface of the Arctic Ocean, up to about 30 meters deep, may be undersaturated with aragonite within two decades.</strong> And given the rate of expansion they’ve observed since 1994, they suggest that <strong>the entire western Arctic Ocean — up to 250 meters deep — could also become undersaturated within a few decades.</strong> [emphasis mine]</p>
</blockquote>
<p></p> Climate Models Significantly Underestimate Our Dangertag:atheistnexus.org,2017-02-18:2182797:Topic:27366702017-02-18T20:47:49.051ZBeth KZhttp://atheistnexus.org/profile/BethKulacz
<p>A major new paper concludes that climate models are invalid because they overlook interactions between the Earth and human systems such as overpopulation, <span>demographics, migration, economic growth and inequality.</span></p>
<p><a href="https://phys.org/news/2017-02-climate_1.html" target="_blank">It's more than just climate change</a></p>
<blockquote><p>…the major scientific models of Earth-Human System interaction do not bidirectionally (interactively) couple Earth System Models with…</p>
</blockquote>
<p>A major new paper concludes that climate models are invalid because they overlook interactions between the Earth and human systems such as overpopulation, <span>demographics, migration, economic growth and inequality.</span></p>
<p><a href="https://phys.org/news/2017-02-climate_1.html" target="_blank">It's more than just climate change</a></p>
<blockquote><p>…the major scientific models of Earth-Human System interaction do not bidirectionally (interactively) couple Earth System Models with the primary Human System drivers of change such as demographics, inequality, economic growth, and migration.</p>
<p>The researchers argue that current models instead generally use independent, external projections of those drivers. "<strong>This lack of two-way coupling makes current models likely to miss critical feedbacks in the combined Earth-Human system</strong>,"…</p>
<p>"<strong>Without including the real feedbacks, predictions for coupled systems cannot work; the model will get away from reality very quickly.</strong>"</p>
<p>Co-author Matthias Ruth, Director and Professor at the School of Public Policy and Urban Affairs, Northeastern University, said: "The result of not dynamically modeling these critical Human-Earth System feedbacks would be that <strong>the environmental challenges humanity faces may be significantly underestimated</strong>. Moreover, there's no explicit role given to policies and investments to actively shape the course in which the dynamics unfold. Rather, <strong>as the models are designed now, any intervention—almost by definition</strong>—comes from the outside and <strong>is perceived as a cost</strong>. Such modeling, and the mindset that goes with it, leaves no room for creativity in solving some of the most pressing challenges."</p>
<p>"The paper correctly highlights that other human stressors, not only the climate ones, are <strong>very important for long-term sustainability</strong>, including <strong>the need to reduce inequality</strong>'', said Carlos Nobre (not a co-author), one of the world's leading Earth System scientists,... [emphasis mine]</p>
</blockquote>
<p><a href="http://api.ning.com:80/files/JomcnL50vYADHnrNsd3OLhdNx*NerD74BvzYd7Dwx67bFjSgcbJwaBZ2D-0sX3EaxgBv1uJTDa2s6hC-sjnwXw7RBNoSYIg8/modelsunderestimate.jpg" target="_self"><img src="http://api.ning.com:80/files/JomcnL50vYADHnrNsd3OLhdNx*NerD74BvzYd7Dwx67bFjSgcbJwaBZ2D-0sX3EaxgBv1uJTDa2s6hC-sjnwXw7RBNoSYIg8/modelsunderestimate.jpg" width="608" class="align-center"/></a></p>
<p></p> Current Climate Models Miss Feedbackstag:atheistnexus.org,2017-02-11:2182797:Topic:27351062017-02-11T17:35:08.102ZBeth KZhttp://atheistnexus.org/profile/BethKulacz
<p><a href="http://www.eurasiareview.com/10022017-study-argues-current-climate-change-models-understate-the-problem/" target="_blank">Study Argues Current Climate Change Models Understate The Problem</a></p>
<p>We're in for serious unexpected climate consequences because current models ignore critical human feedbacks.</p>
<blockquote><p><span>An international team of distinguished scientists, including five members of the National Academies, argues that there are critical components missing…</span></p>
</blockquote>
<p><a href="http://www.eurasiareview.com/10022017-study-argues-current-climate-change-models-understate-the-problem/" target="_blank">Study Argues Current Climate Change Models Understate The Problem</a></p>
<p>We're in for serious unexpected climate consequences because current models ignore critical human feedbacks.</p>
<blockquote><p><span>An international team of distinguished scientists, including five members of the National Academies, argues that there are critical components missing from current climate models that inform environmental, climate, and economic policies.</span></p>
<p><span>The article, published in the National Science Review, describes how the recent growth in resource use, land-use change, emissions, and pollution has made humanity the dominant driver of change in most of the Earth’s natural systems, and how these changes, in turn, have important feedback effects on humans with costly and serious consequences.</span></p>
<p><span>The authors argue that <strong>current estimates of the impact of climate change do not connect human variables — such as demographics, inequality, economic growth, and migration — with planetary changes</strong>. This makes current models <span style="color: black; background-color: yellow;">likely to miss important feedbacks in the real Earth-human system, especially those that may result in unexpected or counterintuitive outcomes.</span></span></p>
<p><span>Furthermore, the authors argue that some of the existing models are unreliable.</span></p>
<p><span>…, the authors present extensive evidence of the need for a new type of model that incorporates the feedbacks that the Earth System has on humans, and propose a framework for future modeling that would serve as a more realistic guide for policymaking and sustainable development.</span></p>
<p><span>“Current models are likely to miss critical feedbacks in the combined Earth-Human system,”<span class="apple-converted-space"> … [emphasis mine]</span></span></p>
</blockquote>
<p><span><span class="apple-converted-space"><a href="https://i2.wp.com/www.theprepperjournal.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/NaturalDisasters.jpg?resize=620%2C400" target="_blank"><img src="https://i2.wp.com/www.theprepperjournal.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/NaturalDisasters.jpg?resize=620%2C400" class="align-center"/></a></span></span></p>
<p><span><span class="apple-converted-space"><a href="http://www.theprepperjournal.com/2016/11/17/natural-disaster-hotspot-preparing-for-the-unexpected/" target="_blank">image source</a> (not recommended)</span></span></p> 2017 Arctic Dramatag:atheistnexus.org,2017-02-10:2182797:Topic:27348542017-02-10T02:00:59.445ZBeth KZhttp://atheistnexus.org/profile/BethKulacz
<p>Are we setting up for a Blue Ocean Event in Sept 2017?</p>
<p>Many climate scientists expect a gradual transition, with ice free not likely for at least a decade or more. Wadhams and a few others expect a phase change, with feedbacks leading to a rapid transition of the Arctic to open ocean much sooner.</p>
<p>Most climate scientists follow <span>Chris Reynold's <span>"Slow Transition" idea. </span></span></p>
<p><span><span>ktonine…</span></span></p>
<p>Are we setting up for a Blue Ocean Event in Sept 2017?</p>
<p>Many climate scientists expect a gradual transition, with ice free not likely for at least a decade or more. Wadhams and a few others expect a phase change, with feedbacks leading to a rapid transition of the Arctic to open ocean much sooner.</p>
<p>Most climate scientists follow <span>Chris Reynold's <span>"Slow Transition" idea. </span></span></p>
<p><span><span>ktonine <a href="http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?topic=933.msg102526#new" target="_blank">at the Arctic Sea Ice Forum</a> offers this <span>summary of it.</span></span></span></p>
<blockquote class="bbc_standard_quote">Critical to all this is that I am becoming convinced that the approximate levelling of PIOMAS volume over the last few winters is telling us that the pack is becoming dominated by FYI, whose thermodynamic equilibrium thickness is largely setting the peak volume in April. Even if one year, with exceptionally good melt weather, were to lead to extent below 1 million kmsq, this will be unlikely to be repeated, and for the record, I do not think this is likely anyway. To get to a state of near ice free conditions in late summer we will need to see significant thinning of the winter peak thickness, which needs far greater winter warming. I don't think this is likely to be a fast process.<br/><br/>So I do not expect to see a virtually sea ice free state until later in the next decade - at the earliest, I suspect that Overland and Wang may be proven right in pinning it on the 2030s. In terms of expectations amongst many in the amateur sea ice community this is a slow transition. However in geological terms it remains abrupt.</blockquote>
<div class="quotefooter"><div class="botslice_quote"></div>
</div>
<p><span><span><span><br/><span>Ktonine adds,</span></span></span></span></p>
<blockquote><p><span><span><span><span>This year we *are* seeing significant thinning in winter thickness, but it still requires an even thinner pack to meet the requirements to get reliably under 1 million kmsq. So, <strong>the question still remains: is this winter's lack of FDDs a step change or is it an anomaly?</strong></span><br/><br/><span>I've always been an advocate of slightly faster timing than Chris for these processes, but the arctic has always managed to surprise me with it's resilience. And in the end we're realistically talking about a difference of 10 to 15 years -- virtually no difference at all in scientific terms.</span><br/><br/><span>What I think we should also remember is that the scientist that first really went out publicly on a limb with an "over-the-top" prediction was Wieslav Maslowski. Back in 2006 Maslowski predicted a nearly ice free arctic in 2016 +/- 3 years. What many don't know is that Maslowski was not talking about sea ice are or extent - but volume. And 'nearly ice free' he defined as losing 80% of the 1979-2000 summer volume (see </span><a href="https://thinkprogress.org/arctic-death-spiral-naval-postgrad-schools-maslowski-projects-ice-free-fall-by-2016-3-yrs-8451a607c916#.nveox2vvu" class="bbc_link" target="_blank">article by Joe Romm at ThinkProgress</a><span>). 2012 came close. 2017 should come even closer - perhaps even make that prediction come true. [emphasis mine]</span></span></span></span></p>
</blockquote>
<p><span><span><span><span>oren offers this caveat about Freezing Degree Days (FDD), which have been drastically lower this season.</span></span></span></span></p>
<blockquote><p><span><span><span><span><span><strong>Chris R's main assumption was that</strong> the freezing season remains mostly the same, with <strong>FDDs stable or perhaps undergoing a small decline</strong>, and that therefore arctic sea ice cannot just pass a tipping point and disappear following its first ice-free summer. Instead, even if a freak summer came along and melted all the ice, the refrozen arctic would still not necessarily melt out the year after. This is what he dubbed a "slow transition", as opposed to a one-way phase change.</span></span></span></span></span></p>
<p><span><span><span><span><br/><span>The theory is very strong and Chris at the time gave many good arguments and explanations, but I believe this year has already shown its main flaw, and that is the FDD assumption. FDDs crashed this winter, leading to the possibility of a melt-out with a regular un-freakish summer. [emphasis mine]</span></span></span></span></span></p>
</blockquote>
<p><span><span><span><span><span>So we have two schools of thought, and Freezing Degree Days is the pivot between them.</span></span></span></span></span></p>
<p><span><span><span><span><span><a href="http://api.ning.com:80/files/VKnxp3xpXMMkJWZI-TzCGFLZKdF4rShqxERbyAY3Sh5BD1zxjHAncAMP7oboZS0GjbqEN3a6AoX19sdtm0QumWBlALKUpNJn/FDD.jpg" target="_self"><img src="http://api.ning.com:80/files/VKnxp3xpXMMkJWZI-TzCGFLZKdF4rShqxERbyAY3Sh5BD1zxjHAncAMP7oboZS0GjbqEN3a6AoX19sdtm0QumWBlALKUpNJn/FDD.jpg" width="450" class="align-center"/></a><a href="https://climatecrocks.com/2017/02/01/arctic-unnaturrally-warm/" target="_blank">image source</a><br/></span></span></span></span></span></p>
<p><span><span><span><span><span>Amateurs such as Paul Beckwith expected melt-out last year. I can't imagine it will take longer than September 2017 or possibly 2019. Many new behaviors have emerged: jet stream changes, low Arctic pressure where there used to be high pressure, Atlantic storm tracks near or into the Arctic bringing both heat and moisture, stratosphere anomalies, shifts of the Hadley and Polar Cells, and the virtual disappearance of multiyear ice. The appearance of clouds in Spring and Summer the last couple of years helped the ice. This is also novel behavior. Overall I agree with the comparison to hysteresis, a nonlinear system fluctuating back and forth between two states, that often proceeds shifting from a previous stable state to a new one.</span></span></span></span></span></p>
<p><span><span><span><span><span>Hold on to your hats.</span></span></span></span></span></p>
<p></p>