Wisconsin: Exit Polls vs. Reality

The “You can’t say anything bad about the Black Guy” Syndrome loosely translates to “Leave me alone; I’m voting for the black guy.” This presents a long-term problem for Barack Obama. It will cause him to fight blindly for the rest of this election cycle.

Tuesday night, the Democrats’ media cheerleaders deluded themselves with “happy face” exit polls showing the unions could very well recall Wisconsin’s Republican Governor Scott Walker. They especially liked the additional numbers showing Obama up 11 points over What’s His Name. Then real numbers started to come in, and the Democrats’ world collapsed.

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During the day, exit polls showed the race a toss up at 50/50. They also showed Walker up 13 points with men and his Democrat challenger Tom Barrett up by 12 with women.

More than this, they “reported” Walker was up a single point with Independents and had gotten only 85% of the self-identified conservative vote. By just 50/48, respondents approved of Walker’s policy of limiting collective bargaining for government workers.

On top of all of this, the exit polls “said” by 52/43 that voters have a favorable view of unions. The media’s man was about to throw out an “evil” Republican, critical analysis of the data be damned.

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When the real numbers were announced, Walker won by 7 points, but no one asked how the “internals” of the exit polls could possibly produce a 7 point victory for the hated Republican. It felt too good to ask any questions because the same clearly faulty exit polls had Obama up 11 points.

What could explain the distance between the exit polls and reality?

A few possibilities come to mind. Respondents might have been fed up with polls, politics, and nonstop campaigns enough to lie to pollsters.

Maybe they “over-polled” Democrats, or it was the “You can’t say anything bad about the Black Guy” Syndrome stemming from fear of being seen as a racist for not supporting Obama. That could very well explain his sizable “lead” over What’s His name.

If this is the case, the Democrats are in big trouble because from here on out, they will never really be able to trust the polls.

If people keep saying “I personally like Barack Obama” because they don’t want to be seen as racist, but keep answering “No” to questions about his policies, it’s curtains for the Democrats. No wonder union thugs love “Card check,” where they can look over your shoulder to see who you really voted for.

Photo credit: terrellaftermath

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