My advice on guessing is pretty much the same for all shots, except maybe an easy overhead coming at you ... and that is DON'T! If you guess wrong the result is obvious. If you guess "right" there's a good chance you won't be where you want to be anyway ... as in overrunning the ball. Best to be on balance so you can turn to either side quickly and wait until you know where the ball is going before you respond. In reality you have a lot more time than you might think or feel you do.

This is very important during tight volley exchanges at the net like in doubles. I feed balls to my students from the service line and they are always slower and less effective on volleys when they guess than when they don't. I think the same is true for returning serves.

MG

I agree and thinking guessing also has many negative effects, often making
an avg shot great.

First, I can't show you a clip, because no one is going to clip and save a routine ace, where the returner doesn't even swing their racquet. If you have ever seen an ace where the racquet wasn't even swung nor even a single step was taken to the ball, you have seen a wrong guess. I don't mean that happens 100% of the time in that situation but it happens a lot of the time. Most people watch tennis by following the ball with their eye, thus many (you?) have never noticed it. Personally, I am currently working on my return game so I watch tennis differently (often I just watch the returner's motion, since I am working on my returns). So I am seeing them routinely.

What I mean by "guess" is I make a move without actually seeing the ball heading in that direction. I am "anticipating" by using what I have observed through the match, so I am right >>50% of the time. I don't do it 100% of the time. I do it mostly on second serves so I can punish them and put myself into a better position should the ball come back. Naturally since second serves are slower, I have no concerns on getting aced if I guess wrong.

What makes you think a returner who doesn't swing at all means him making a wrong guess? Have you considered that the returner just admitted his opponent aced him?

There are plenty of Youtube video highlights. Many of them record the aces, too.

While this is operating on personal bias, the kid I played had aced me several times during the match simply because I admitted it. I thought it was going to be impossible to reach. Similarly, when I aced him by kicking it off down the T, he just stood and admitted it. He hit some crazy serves that managed to snag the line, and so did I. I don't think either of us guessed the direction of the ball; we just simply knew that it was a genuinely fast, surprising ball that was practically low-percentage and unreachable.

I don't think I've ever seen professionals make moves before even seeing the ball head in that direction. It may seem like it, because they react so fast. For instance, I think Federer will see a ball bounce in a generic area, and move around to attack with his forehand accordingly.

^^I think many people will agree here that Verdasco did a genuine split, read, react. No guessing, just shanking.

Another link here, probably describing what you see when a player moves around to hit a ball: http://www.tennisplayer.net/public/t...ro_return.html
As I described earlier, Federer moved back and went around to hit a forehand. You've probably seen Murray do this a lot to Tsonga during the 2012 Wimbledon Championships. Of course, I'm sure many players do this off second serves, but I'm certain it's not guessing or premature moving.

The webpage also states that players are simply in the air at the time of the service contact. Take a look at a professional match on TV, and this is very evident in nearly all returns, including Verdasco's return video above.

What makes you think a returner who doesn't swing at all means him making a wrong guess? Have you considered that the returner just admitted his opponent aced him?

There are plenty of Youtube video highlights. Many of them record the aces, too.

While this is operating on personal bias, the kid I played had aced me several times during the match simply because I admitted it. I thought it was going to be impossible to reach. Similarly, when I aced him by kicking it off down the T, he just stood and admitted it. He hit some crazy serves that managed to snag the line, and so did I. I don't think either of us guessed the direction of the ball; we just simply knew that it was a genuinely fast, surprising ball that was practically low-percentage and unreachable.

I don't think I've ever seen professionals make moves before even seeing the ball head in that direction. It may seem like it, because they react so fast. For instance, I think Federer will see a ball bounce in a generic area, and move around to attack with his forehand accordingly.

^^I think many people will agree here that Verdasco did a genuine split, read, react. No guessing, just shanking.

Another link here, probably describing what you see when a player moves around to hit a ball: http://www.tennisplayer.net/public/t...ro_return.html
As I described earlier, Federer moved back and went around to hit a forehand. You've probably seen Murray do this a lot to Tsonga during the 2012 Wimbledon Championships. Of course, I'm sure many players do this off second serves, but I'm certain it's not guessing or premature moving.

The webpage also states that players are simply in the air at the time of the service contact. Take a look at a professional match on TV, and this is very evident in nearly all returns, including Verdasco's return video above.

I previously downplayed what Pros do, since neither the OP, me or you are Pros, so that information adds very little to this discussion. But that seems to be all you are interested in.

Nonetheless, the article you cite actually supports my point, that Pros move to the ball before seeing where it is going:

"Conventional wisdom says that the returner should split step as the server makes contact with the ball. The film shows this isn't quite how it happens. What we actually see is that most players are already in the air at the time of the contact. The split step actually begins a few fractions of a second before the server hits. At this point the server's racket is still on it's way up to the ball.

But there is something else. Traditionally when we think of the split step we think of the player landing on both feet in a balanced position ready to move either way to the ball. That's not always how it happens on the pro return. Take a close look at the feet as the players come down. You'll see that before the player lands on the court, the foot closest to the ball can actually start to flare in the direction of the return. This is the start of the turn or the preparation for the return.

So the players are starting the split step well before contact. They do this by unweighting before the server hits. This puts them in the air at contact. And sometimes they are actually starting their move to the ball before they land on the court. Were players taught this? I don't think so. It's an adaption developed through experience over time.

Can it be developed, and if so how? The conventional wisdom is that the key is to timing the return is focus on the ball and react to the contact. But there is some interesting new research that suggests something different. A study done by a researcher in Virginia used goggles to record what the players did with their eyes on the return. What she found was that expert returners focused on the ball, but they were also looking at the body of the server, particularly the upper body. The same research showed that novice players didn't do this, but could be looking at different areas around the court almost randomly.

Probably what this indicates is that the brain of the returner is picking up clues about the return from watching the body of server. They might not know or be able to explain what those clues are because it probably happens subconsciously. It's just something that the player's develop automatically from focusing on the right area of the body. This may explain some of the footage we've seen in which a player like Pete Sampras appears to be reacting and starting his move to one side faster than research says is humanly possible."

But again at the Club level it is no big deal to "know" that some guy's second serve is highly likely to be hit towards your BH (since he has done it 100% of the time so far) and start running around your BH for an inside out FH winner. Really it is not a big gamble, either on the prediction part or the recovery part if you guess wrong. Really.

I previously downplayed what Pros do, since neither the OP, me or you are Pros, so that information adds very little to this discussion. But that seems to be all you are interested in.

Nonetheless, the article you cite actually supports my point, that Pros move to the ball before seeing where it is going:

"Conventional wisdom says that the returner should split step as the server makes contact with the ball. The film shows this isn't quite how it happens. What we actually see is that most players are already in the air at the time of the contact. The split step actually begins a few fractions of a second before the server hits. At this point the server's racket is still on it's way up to the ball.

But there is something else. Traditionally when we think of the split step we think of the player landing on both feet in a balanced position ready to move either way to the ball. That's not always how it happens on the pro return. Take a close look at the feet as the players come down. You'll see that before the player lands on the court, the foot closest to the ball can actually start to flare in the direction of the return. This is the start of the turn or the preparation for the return.

So the players are starting the split step well before contact. They do this by unweighting before the server hits. This puts them in the air at contact. And sometimes they are actually starting their move to the ball before they land on the court. Were players taught this? I don't think so. It's an adaption developed through experience over time.

Can it be developed, and if so how? The conventional wisdom is that the key is to timing the return is focus on the ball and react to the contact. But there is some interesting new research that suggests something different. A study done by a researcher in Virginia used goggles to record what the players did with their eyes on the return. What she found was that expert returners focused on the ball, but they were also looking at the body of the server, particularly the upper body. The same research showed that novice players didn't do this, but could be looking at different areas around the court almost randomly.

Probably what this indicates is that the brain of the returner is picking up clues about the return from watching the body of server. They might not know or be able to explain what those clues are because it probably happens subconsciously. It's just something that the player's develop automatically from focusing on the right area of the body. This may explain some of the footage we've seen in which a player like Pete Sampras appears to be reacting and starting his move to one side faster than research says is humanly possible."

But again at the Club level it is no big deal to "know" that some guy's second serve is highly likely to be hit towards your BH (since he has done it 100% of the time so far) and start running around your BH for an inside out FH winner. Really it is not a big gamble, either on the prediction part or the recovery part if you guess wrong. Really.

I feel like you're confusing "being in the air" with "moving prematurely". You can certainly anticipate where the ball is going to land. That's the "cues" that the article is describing. This is different from outright guessing.

They are not taking any early steps toward the ball; the article clearly says they are merely in the air on contact, and land in the direction of the ball. This is typical return of serve technique; every 5.0 and above does this at some point.

The article's contention is that they take a bigger, earlier split step to read the ball, that's it. It says nothing about "moving before knowing" nor "guessing". What you cited was essentially how pros anticipate patterns and direction. No where does it say that pros outright move before seeing the ball; they are merely split-stepping to improve their reaction.

I'm only bringing up the pros because they are the highest level of play; they do what's most optimal in terms of technique. I'm trying to discuss this in the context of playing against a superior, powerful server: someone who can kick it virtually any direction, hit over 100mph, place the ball, etc.

I feel like you're confusing "being in the air" with "moving prematurely". You can certainly anticipate where the ball is going to land. That's the "cues" that the article is describing. This is different from outright guessing.

They are not taking any early steps toward the ball; the article clearly says they are merely in the air on contact, and land in the direction of the ball. This is typical return of serve technique; every 5.0 and above does this at some point.

The article's contention is that they take a bigger, earlier split step to read the ball, that's it. It says nothing about "moving before knowing" nor "guessing". What you cited was essentially how pros anticipate patterns and direction. No where does it say that pros outright move before seeing the ball; they are merely split-stepping to improve their reaction.

I'm only bringing up the pros because they are the highest level of play; they do what's most optimal in terms of technique. I'm trying to discuss this in the context of playing against a superior, powerful server: someone who can kick it virtually any direction, hit over 100mph, place the ball, etc.

To my ear you are lost in the weeds trying to parse the supposed difference between "guessing" which in your world is a 50/50 coin flip and would be the last thing anyone would ever want to do and "anticipating" which is a well known, tried and true skill developed by Pros and documented in the article both of us cited.

You can use which ever label makes you feel most comfortable but bottom line the article notes (correctly) that Pros make moves to a side before the human eye/brain complex can physically process where the ball is going. Completely seperate from the article many savvy players from Pros to yours truly, commonly and successfully make the decision before the server ever starts his toss, to run around their backhand because they "anticipate" based on how the match has progressed, that the serve will be to their backhand.

To my ear you are lost in the weeds trying to parse the supposed difference between "guessing" which in your world is a 50/50 coin flip and would be the last thing anyone would ever want to do and "anticipating" which is a well known, tried and true skill developed by Pros and documented in the article both of us cited.

You can use which ever label makes you feel most comfortable but bottom line the article notes (correctly) that Pros make moves to a side before the human eye/brain complex can physically process where the ball is going. Completely seperate from the article many savvy players from Pros to yours truly, commonly and successfully make the decision before the server ever starts his toss, to run around their backhand because they "anticipate" based on how the match has progressed, that the serve will be to their backhand.

In no way do I think it's akin to a coin toss. I just simply don't think they move before knowing where the ball is.

I'm certain that by the time they land, they have seen the ball going in a general direction and will take a step there. The article doesn't say that they "make moves to a side before the human eye/brain complex can physically process where the ball is going". I'm sure they actually can process where the ball is going, at a certain speed range, perhaps below 130 mph, maybe?

That's kinda why aces are very fast and returners just watch it zip by without even bringing up their racquet; they can't react to such a well-placed, super fast ball. They're never guessing; they're reacting and anticipating, I'm sure.

Our primary point of contention is whether pros move before knowing where the ball is going. I'm saying they don't; they merely make educated anticipations, but I don't think they act upon it completely. We already both agree that they anticipate where the serve is going. However, I'm discussing not what's going on in their minds, but what they actually do on court. I think the videos I posted earlier are pretty evident that they don't move before knowing; they're all reacting, in the moment, to the serve.

I guess where the serve is going, but I keep the exact same preparation, but knowing I can change quicker to that side.
Holding the racket slightly high allows me to counter high kicking serves as well as slices and flat heaters.
Hate prepped for flat serves, but get a high kicker above my head.
Better to be ready for the high serve, then swing down harder for low skidded slices and flats.

Murray does a classic skip-split-step
What do you call what Fed does?
He seems to just bunny hop when anticipating
Murray's serve. No skipping
It looks a bit different

I was not refering to Fed's standard return. I am speaking of specific points when on second serve he makes the tactical decision that he wants to run around his BH and hit an IOFH return. On those occasions he is essentially guessing that the serve will be to his BH (to be honest the guy is close to 100% correct in that guess). since he starts his movement to the left before the serve is struck.

Its not really a "guess" per se. Its more like an informed decision. Better players will often start to move in favor of one side or the other on the return before the ball is actually struck by the server because they are picking up on cues from the toss and what they have previously observed. In fact, one of the main reasons Sampras' serve was so difficult to handle was because he hit just about every serve in his arsenal off of the same toss. One could not watch his toss and easily discern whether he was bringing the heat or throwing in a kick or slice.

Gotta consider.
At decent levels of play, serves are directed towards the backhand side more than the forehand. So where do you think the next serve is going?
Also, most players consider a switch from forehand to backhand the most accurate and easiest to perform. So which grip should we start with?
First serve usually bounce lower to you than kicking second serves.
Slice serves tend to skid and bounce low.
Tendencies. That's all you have to go by.

Gotta consider.
At decent levels of play, serves are directed towards the backhand side more than the forehand. So where do you think the next serve is going?
Also, most players consider a switch from forehand to backhand the most accurate and easiest to perform. So which grip should we start with?
First serve usually bounce lower to you than kicking second serves.
Slice serves tend to skid and bounce low.
Tendencies. That's all you have to go by.

There is a slight difference between very, very skilled players picking up a cue and acting on it before the ball is struck and remembering what has happened in the match and deciding to take an educated guess and acting on it and yet a third player who just flips a mental coin and makes a move.

Bottom line all are "guessing" in the sense they are NOT observing the ball trajectory and reacting to it.

Smart player, of any level, does both.
You guess so you prep sooner and ready to go to your backhand.
You look at the ball and react to it's direction.
If you know IN ADVANCE, which way you're likely to switch to, you are ahead of the guy who goes out there and only reacts to the ball movement.

Smart player, of any level, does both.
You guess so you prep sooner and ready to go to your backhand.
You look at the ball and react to it's direction.If you know IN ADVANCE, which way you're likely to switch to, you are ahead of the guy who goes out there and only reacts to the ball movement.

Depends!
Every player is different, and they hold the racket differently. Their body mechanics are also different.
Defending body shots, use your experience. What worked for you?
I know lots of western grip players who defend body shots with their forehand, because they're great at hitting inside out forehands.