Friday, December 25, 2015

NATO Expansion: Lessons Not Learned

NATO Expansion: Lessons Not Learned

Failure to Communicate
Recently, NATO extended an offer of membership to Montenegro. The
announcement was couched in the usual tagline of offering “assurance” to
Western Balkan states concerned with possible security issues (Russian
assertiveness) and “reassurance” to current NATO members in the
neighborhood. With the utmost respect to Montenegrins and other newer
NATO entrants, it seems that they are not expected to reciprocate and
offer assurance or reassurance to NATO in turn, which really means the
United States. Yet, reciprocity is one of the hallmarks of any
successful alliance. The idea that the U.S. considers Montenegro an ally
worth risking further deterioration of US-Russian relations in the wake
of Ukraine, Syria, the Sinai air disaster, the Paris bombings, and
recent Turkish actions is quite idiotic.
Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014 should have taught NATO the
possible dangers of over-extension. The latter episode in particular
should have been quite instructive (to NATO as well as the EU) as to the
need for dialogue between major powers before actions to be taken which
might be perceived as infringing upon the security interests of other
involved parties. Relentless expansion of one’s own sphere of influence
while denying a corresponding sphere of influence and concomitant
security interests to one’s counterpart reeks of hubris, stupidity, and
miscalculation, the usual tragic precursors to war in the past.

Security Architecture and Infrastructure Crumbling
Two hundred years ago at the Congress of Vienna,
the major powers of the day agreed to form an equilibrium of sorts
which was intended to reduce the chance of a major European war
re-occurring. In the wake of the Napoleonic Wars, Austria, Prussia,
Russia, Great Britain, and France came to an understanding which in
essence stated that if any one of the powers took actions which
infringed upon the security interests of another state, it would
potentially face consequences from the remaining powers as well. With
the exception of the Crimean War, this model served as the basis for
peace on the European continent for almost a hundred years, until the
outbreak of World War I. Following the Treaty of Versailles, there were
attempts to replicate the Congress of Vienna model with the formation of
the League of Nations. The League ultimately proved unsustainable
because of the non-participation of the United States.
The model was replicated once more in the wake of World War II with
the creation of the United Nations’ Security Council, whose permanent
members also numbered five, akin to the original Congress. In his
infamous New York Times op-ed piece,
President Putin warned explicitly that the Security Council was in
danger of becoming obsolete if certain members, namely the U.S., kept
taking actions which violated its norms. Members of the Security Council
have the not unrealistic expectation that their interests will be taken
into account. If not, the entire international security architecture
becomes imminently more unstable.

Wisdom and Alternatives Needed

In addition to hurting US-Russia relations and ultimately undermining
the US position in the international community vis-a-vis the United
Nations, constant NATO expansion lends credence to the argument for
alternative security structures. One such structure is China’s
Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia
(CICA). Among CICA’s tenets is the belief that alliances reflect a Cold
War mentality, evident in the expansion to Montenegro and the populace’s
subsequent division as result of common Orthodox ties with Russia.
Another more fundamental CICA platform is that ultimate, “perfect”
security for one party cannot be obtained without inevitably diminishing
the security concerns of other parties.

Summarily, two post-World War II events are worthy of discussion
here. However militarily feasible (if at all), it was considered
politically infeasible to attack our ally, the Former Soviet Union,
following the defeat of Nazi Germany. This suggestion by General Patton,
in addition to other decisions taken, led to his eventual dismissal by
General Eisenhower. Shortly afterwards, during the Korean War, General
MacArthur talked about expanding the war to include China and actually
advanced to the Sino-Korean border, which provoked a response from
China, pushing the General’s troops toward the sea. MacArthur was
eventually relieved by President Truman. The combined suggestion from
the two popular generals was that there could be no ultimate security
for the United States while both the Former Soviet Union and Communist
China continued to exist. More wisdom and forethought in the likes of
Truman and Eisenhower is desperately needed now.

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About Me

ROLAND SAN JUAN was a researcher, management consultant, inventor, a part time radio broadcaster and a publishing director. He died last November 25, 2008 after suffering a stroke. His staff will continue his unfinished work to inform the world of the untold truths. Please read Erick San Juan's articles at: ericksanjuan.blogspot.com This blog is dedicated to the late Max Soliven, a FILIPINO PATRIOT.
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