Hey Phread....You must have caught what I got...lol
Sounds alot of what I have been rolling lately...
And to top things off...I get that Lucky Bastard Award...Yah..Right! I got all my luck in one roll...lol
Well, its nice to know others are gettin the shaft too...
Mike

I have just played two battles at Sidi Rezegh Airfield losing both with a terrible sequence of dice.

I had a sequence of 47 shots at armoured targets for 5, yes only 5 hits. (0/9 at the end of battle 1 and 5/38 in battle 2)

As Allies I fired 38 shots, and rolled 0tank rolls ,0% against only armoured targets !!

Who is a statistician amongst us?
What it the probability of zero tank rolls being rolled from 38 dice?

As far as I can remember this is the first time I have had a zero for one of the dice types.

Has anyone a worse story to share?

I don't have a worse story to tell, but was amazed how poor my target selection was today
From 108 shots fired on Red Barricades Factory I got total of 34 hits (31%). Partly the low hit rate was because I targeted the snipers and on the other hand I rolled infantry against tanks and vice versa

Well it happens and both matches were tough and real FUN to play!

And to answer Phreads question is about 1/1000. The change to not to throw tank with 1 die is 5/6 and raise that to the power of 38 which gives us (5/6)^38 = 0.0009797, then multiply that by 100 to get the result in percents. Hopefully I remembered my statistics class correctly, can someone confirm my calculations?

Often I have gotten 3 tanks against an infantry target and then get three infantry against the armor target. The dice even out over time. But you are correct the quartermaster crew marks the ammunition incorrectly.

As Allies I fired 38 shots, and rolled 0tank rolls ,0% against only armoured targets !!

Who is a statistician amongst us?
What it the probability of zero tank rolls being rolled from 38 dice?

As far as I can remember this is the first time I have had a zero for one of the dice types.

So I'm glad someone else has worse luck then me too. One thing about having bad luck is that I think it actually makes you a better player because you have to find a way to win with less. Then when luck finally comes back around, it's a cake-walk.

So I only played the first few scenarios, but i think I can answer this question. The chance for rolling 38 dice without rolling a particular number can be determined by figuring out what the probably is for always rolling the other 5 numbers. As such, it's 5/6 * 5/6 * etc for 38 dice or 5/6 to the 38th power. In excel it would be =power(5/6,38). In other words, there's a 0.098% chance to not roll any tanks in 38 rolls; in other words, you'll have to play another 1021 games on average to see that feat again. Rare yes, but certainly within the scope of expectations.

I've noticed some very streaky dice too and it's a little irritating when the AI rolls 4 dice and gets 4 hits while you roll 11 and only get 2 hits--that game should have been mine the big cheater.

I rolled 27 dice on a single tank figure (not unit) that also moved across three frozen river hexes and was at some points in a position that could not retreat with no kill. Cost me the game. Not as bad as yours, but very close.

Thanks for this thread. I love the game but uninstalled the online game. I've never rolled this bad in any games I've played. And I can roll quite bad but this is...

I will stick to face to face battles. If you want to turn people off to this game, let them try this first.

Tom

It's really sad if bad dice roll turns people off this game. Maybe we should give new players a couple of re-rolls to make them happy.

Also it's curious how people seem to think that bad rolls only happen to them, not their opponents or the AI...

I'm really surprised how many people think they roll worse online than in real life. Makes me wonder if the real-life dice are crooked (they probably are - this isn't exactly Vegas-dice precision), or maybe people are just better at cheating f2f ("oops - I pushed that to the floor! What? No, I don't think it was going to be a star...")

Remind me to have a random distribution of dice for the tournament I'm running in a month...

I'll admit that the dice seem 'streakier' online -- that I have hot and cold streaks. But on the other hand, i've never played this many face to face games in a row (or ever, actually).

Because of the speed of the game and lack of setup, I would venture that most players have played more games online that face to face. This would sort of invalidate the comparisons for most of us, but that is another topic.

But after playing many games (over 1500), i've seen great dice and terrible dice. It does even out. Some games they are awful, but awful for both, and some they are good.

I believe that most of this is that we remember when the dice are bad, but not when they are good -- especially at the end of the games when our interest is heightened.

For example, when rolling three dice (with a tank unit) against a two figure unit -- I usually assume that I'll hit twice. So, my assumption is for 66% hits, but the average is 50%. I EXPECT to get better odds. So one hit -- which is just less than average -- is a disappointment.

In addition, if I roll three hits -- which is above average -- I forget about that third hit since it didn't matter. In conclusion, there is no way for the roll to exceed my expectations in this case -- and plenty of ways for disappointment.

So my theory -- the probability of getting an amazing, memorable, great roll is much lower than a terrible roll -- but only because of our interpretation of the odds and our expectations.

And in addition, as Nygaard said, it happens to the AI and our opponents as well. But we really don't remember those either...

As I said above, if you play enough it will even out. There is more skill to this game than is apparent at first.

Although there are some players out there who think my name gives me a special advantage, I have earned the dubious honor of a 0% hit rate for an entire battle. That's because I never fired a shot, and my opponent fired 32 times in his first turn! But that story has already been told...

More recently, I think I beat Phread's bad luck battle wherein he rolled 4/88 against armor. Considering the chance of rolling a tank or a grenade are 1/3 per die, those are long odds indeed. Mine are even worse. While playing Russian Breakout I managed to lose as the Axis by rolling 1/23 against my opponent's armor. That's equivalent to 4/92 when probability suggests the ratio 30 or 31/92.

Thanks for this thread. I love the game but uninstalled the online game. I've never rolled this bad in any games I've played. And I can roll quite bad but this is...

I will stick to face to face battles. If you want to turn people off to this game, let them try this first.

Tom

I know CappyTom wrote this a long time ago, but since the thread was revived I thought I would respond.

I just started playing the online game January 2013. I wanted to play the board game, I even went to a local hobby store that was advertising starting a WWII historic board game club. I was the only one interested in Memoir 44. So I started playing the online version and yes at times the dice seem unlucky, that has not deterred me.

I think the game is a challenge at times. I also think the community is great! Everyone that I have played so far (with the exception of one) have been fearsome yet honorable opponents. And those moments when the dice "fail" me... well those are just opportunities to be a gentleman and an officer!

Thanks for this thread. I love the game but uninstalled the online game. I've never rolled this bad in any games I've played. And I can roll quite bad but this is...

I will stick to face to face battles. If you want to turn people off to this game, let them try this first.

Tom

I know CappyTom wrote this a long time ago, but since the thread was revived I thought I would respond.

I just started playing the online game January 2013. I wanted to play the board game, I even went to a local hobby store that was advertising starting a WWII historic board game club. I was the only one interested in Memoir 44. So I started playing the online version and yes at times the dice seem unlucky, that has not deterred me.

I think the game is a challenge at times. I also think the community is great! Everyone that I have played so far (with the exception of one) have been fearsome yet honorable opponents. And those moments when the dice "fail" me... well those are just opportunities to be a gentleman and an officer!

Have a great day all.

David

Welcome David, good to have you with us here online. The board game is great too, and there are many elements that DOW will probably never put online, so don't give up finding someone to play it with live (campaigns are great fun, even if you can find only one other player to play with).
Look forward to seeing you online.

The name "Lucky" does not alawys mean "good luck" as the following battle makes abundantly clear.

But first, a challenge! If ANYONE out there has ever had a worse game, I will award that player with a special, one of a kind "Unlucky Duck" medal. For now, I claim it as my own.

The scenario was "Battle of Termoli" which is in SFTF, and I was playing as the Allies. In 8 turns, I rolled 0%, and lost the battle 0-6. That's right, 8 turns, no hits, while my opponent rolled 49 times and scored 22 times. The odds of this occurring are so astronomically improbable that I can't come up with enough 0's after the decimal. Somewhere, a group of Chimpanzees are attempting to type the collected works of Shakespeare,and they have better odds of succeeding than rolling 0% in 8 turns.

What's worse, I was playing against Hermann.

I hope this marks the low point of my carreer. At this point I figure I'm either due for a promotion or else I'm going to join my brethern up the river in the heart of darkness.

Which gives me a idea. If you can top this by being more unlucky, I will call the award the "Heart of Darkness" medal, for luck below and beneath the call of duty.