Formerly a struggling single twenty-something

Oscar Thoughts and Predictions

I love awards shows. I really do. I’ve been an awards show junkie since middle school. The Emmys, the Golden Globes, the Grammys, the SAG Awards, and of course the Oscars are big television events for me. I DVR not just the ceremonies, but the red carpet on E!. I buy the issue of People that comes out after the Oscars, showing everyone all dressed up. I check off the winners as the awards are given, and I try to make predictions and see whether I’m right.

Every year before the Oscars, the two Boston Globe film critics list, for each category, who should win, who will win, who was robbed, and who shouldn’t be in the category. I think it’s coming out tomorrow.

This year, I’m doing my own version of that post. It was a great year for movies, so I’m especially excited this year. I’ve seen all of the movies nominated for Best Picture and all but one of the movies that have acting nominations, so here are my thoughts on this year’s Oscars.

Will win: I’m going to go with Lincoln. It’s rare for Best Picture and Best Director to be split and even rarer for a movie to win Best Picture when the director wasn’t nominated. So that rules out Les Mis, Argo, and Zero Dark Thirty, although I would have said that all three of them had good shots before the nominations came out. Lincoln was nowhere near my favorite of the nominated movies, but seeing as it has the most nominations, I’d say it has the best shot at winning. I don’t think Best Picture has been this wide open in years.

Was robbed: Moonrise Kingdom! WTF? That was such a great movie. I can’t believe Best Original Screenplay was its only nomination. I also would have nominated The Sessions, a really underrated movie that I found deeply touching. (Uh…no pun intended.)

Shouldn’t be here: All nine movies are good movies that I enjoyed, which doesn’t always happen. If I had to drop one, it would be Beasts of the Southern Wild, which was decent but very weird and, for the most part, overrated.

Best Actor

Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook

Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables

Joaquin Phoenix, The Master

Denzel Washington, Flight

Should win: Hugh Jackman, and that’s not just my Les Misbias speaking. Although, like I said, he doesn’t sing the role as well as most of the stage Valjeans, he does an amazing job carrying the whole movie while embodying a complex, heroic character and singing live on camera.

Will win: Daniel Day-Lewis. I think what Jackman accomplished was harder, but Day-Lewis does a great job capturing the essence of a historical icon. He’d definitely be my second choice.

Was robbed: John Hawkes for The Sessions. He plays a man in an iron lung who hires a sex surrogate to help him lose his virginity, and it’s an incredibly appealing, moving performance. I didn’t expect to like that movie as much as I did, and he was a big reason why.

Shouldn’t be here: They were all pretty good, actually. If I really had to pick one to drop from this category, I’d say Joaquin. Although it is nice to see him move on from that whole fake-rapping-career fiasco.

Best Actress

Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty

Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook

Emmanuelle Riva, Amour

Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild

Naomi Watts, The Impossible

Should win: J. Law wins at life and should be my new best friend, but while I really wanted to say her, I think I have to go with Jessica Chastain, who was just riveting in Zero Dark Thirty. She’s the very smart, driven CIA agent who has to fight to be heard but whose hard work eventually leads to the killing of Osama Bin Laden. She clearly has lots of emotions pouring through her, but she never overplays the role. The scene where they’re briefing everyone on the compound and the CIA director looks at her and asks who she is, as if seeing her for the first time, and she retorts, “I’m the motherfucker who found this place!” was awesome.

Will win: Toss-up between Jennifer Lawrence and Jessica Chastain, two actresses whose career trajectories have really shot up in the last couple of years. I would be fine with either of them winning.

Shouldn’t be here: Hard to say. I haven’t seen The Impossible, so I have no idea about Naomi Watts. The other four should definitely be here, though.

Best Supporting Actor

Alan Arkin, Argo

Robert DeNiro, Silver Linings Playbook

Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master

Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained

Should win: This isn’t a category I have a strong opinion about, but I’m actually going to go to with a less popular choice. I thought Robert DeNiro was pretty great in Silver Linings Playbook, although at this point in his career he certainly doesn’t need any more awards.

Will win: Tough call, but I’m going to say Tommy Lee Jones. Every single nominee in this category already has an Oscar, which is another reason I don’t care much about who wins.

Was robbed: Eddie Redmayne! If you can make me like and sympathize with a character I didn’t think I could ever like, you definitely deserve an Oscar nomination.

Shouldn’t be here: Alan Arkin. He was good comic relief in Argo, but nothing Oscar-worthy.

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams, The Master

Sally Field, Lincoln

Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables

Helen Hunt, The Sessions

Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook

Should win: Anne Hathaway. No one else in this category comes remotely close. If I really had to pick a second choice, I’d say Sally Field.

Will win: I will be shocked if anyone other than Hathaway wins. She’s won basically every other Best Supporting Actress award this year.

Was robbed: SAMANTHA BARKS. Arrgh! My standards for Eponine were pretty high, and she surpassed them. She actually DOES come remotely close to Anne Hathaway.

Shouldn’t be here: Amy Adams and Jacki Weaver. I feel like the Academy got it in their heads that they need to nominate Amy Adams for every movie she’s in—she was great in Junebug but just average in Doubt, The Fighter, and now The Master. Also, a pet peeve of mine with this category is how many roles nominated for Best Supporting Actress are “wife-of” roles for characters defined almost solely by their relationship to the leading man. This year, Amy Adams and Sally Field are nominated for “wife-of” roles and Jacki Weaver, who definitely didn’t impress me as much as everyone else in Silver Linings Playbook, is a “mother-of.” And Helen Hunt, like so many actors do, totally butchered the Boston accent in The Sessions. Basically, they should have just handed Hathaway the award and not bothered with everyone else.

Best Director

Michael Haneke, Amour

Ang Lee, Life of Pi

David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook

Stephen Spielberg, Lincoln

Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild

Should win: Honestly? Ben Affleck should win, but he inexplicably wasn’t nominated. I don’t know if the Academy’s still holding a grudge over Giglior what, but hopefully he’s satisfied with winning basically every other award out there. I don’t have a strong preference among the actual nominees.

Will win: Since I think Lincoln’s going to win Best Picture, probably Spielberg.

Was robbed: Ben Affleck, Tom Hooper, Kathryn Bigelow. Seriously, it’s like they threw the Best Picture nominees in a hat and randomly picked five to nominate for Best Director. I’ve heard criticism of Hooper’s directing of Les Mis, so although I’m disappointed that he wasn’t nominated, I’m not surprised. But Kathryn Bigelow? She won for The Hurt Locker, and Zero Dark Thirty is a much better movie.

Shouldn’t be here: Michael Haneke.

What do all of you think? Who would you say should win, will win, was robbed, and shouldn’t be here for all of these categories this year?

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8 thoughts on “Oscar Thoughts and Predictions”

Great blog. Like you, I'm a fan of Oscar/Award season. Lincoln was great and my preferred film to win Best Picture, but I think Argo is going to win, even with Ben Affleck not being nominated for Director. He has won just about every other award, like you mentioned, and I think the Academy is going to bestow the honor for Best Picture on him just because he was snubbed…seeing that the Director nominations are voted on just by fellow directors and not the Academy as a whole. As for Best Actress, I am going to be different and go with Naomi Watts. The Impossible was a great movie, and I think you should see it. I thought Les Mez was not as good as I was expecting. I saw it in London and in Washington, and a few of the songs are a let down, especially compared with the 10th Anniversary edition CD I have. Wrong choices were made with the acting, but I agree with you on Anne Hathaway, I will be shocked if she didn't win, she was that good, though Sally Field was good too in Lincoln. You're correct that Alan Arkin was an odd choice for Supp. Actor. I think John Goodman should have been nominated instead, either for Argo or Flight. I'm going with Tommy Lee Jones. He was the best out of all of them. I didn't think about it at the time, but I guess Eddie Redmayne was robbed of a nomination at the least. I have seen most of the Oscar fims, but not The Sessions. I want to check it out now. Enjoy the show!

Great blog. Like you, I'm a fan of Oscar/Award season. Lincoln was great and my preferred film to win Best Picture, but I think Argo is going to win, even with Ben Affleck not being nominated for Director. He has won just about every other award, like you mentioned, and I think the Academy is going to bestow the honor for Best Picture on him just because he was snubbed…seeing that the Director nominations are voted on just by fellow directors and not the Academy as a whole. As for Best Actress, I am going to be different and go with Naomi Watts. The Impossible was a great movie, and I think you should see it. I thought Les Mez was not as good as I was expecting. I saw it in London and in Washington, and a few of the songs are a let down, especially compared with the 10th Anniversary edition CD I have. Wrong choices were made with the acting, but I agree with you on Anne Hathaway, I will be shocked if she didn't win, she was that good, though Sally Field was good too in Lincoln. You're correct that Alan Arkin was an odd choice for Supp. Actor. I think John Goodman should have been nominated instead, either for Argo or Flight. I'm going with Tommy Lee Jones. He was the best out of all of them. I didn't think about it at the time, but I guess Eddie Redmayne was robbed of a nomination at the least. I have seen most of the Oscar fims, but not The Sessions. I want to check it out now. Enjoy the show!

This is fascinating because I disagree with a lot of this. Mostly because I was underwhelmed by Les Mis, and ADORED Beasts of the Southern Wild. That said, I agree 1000% about Ben Affleck being robbed. He deserves that win so the fact that he didn't even get a nom is ridiculous. Bigelow was harmed by all the stupid controversy. It's not fair or right, but I get it.

Anyway, this was fun to read. It's always interesting to come away from these things with such strong feelings only to realize just how subjective those feelings are. This is part of what's so magical about movies (and art in general).

This is fascinating because I disagree with a lot of this. Mostly because I was underwhelmed by Les Mis, and ADORED Beasts of the Southern Wild. That said, I agree 1000% about Ben Affleck being robbed. He deserves that win so the fact that he didn't even get a nom is ridiculous. Bigelow was harmed by all the stupid controversy. It's not fair or right, but I get it.

Anyway, this was fun to read. It's always interesting to come away from these things with such strong feelings only to realize just how subjective those feelings are. This is part of what's so magical about movies (and art in general).

Yeah, I saw you mentioned that you didn't like how they did “One Day More” in Les Mis, and while there were some things I wish the movie had done differently, that was actually one of my favorite parts!

I have another post coming up where I talk about all these movies, and some others, individually, but I thought Beasts of the Southern Wild wasn't bad, just a bit too arty and weird.

Yeah, I saw you mentioned that you didn't like how they did “One Day More” in Les Mis, and while there were some things I wish the movie had done differently, that was actually one of my favorite parts!

I have another post coming up where I talk about all these movies, and some others, individually, but I thought Beasts of the Southern Wild wasn't bad, just a bit too arty and weird.