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Battery Technology Forecast

So I’ve been reading more and more research on batteries lately and I’ve come up with what I think are some reasonable estimates on the different types of technologies and when we’ll see them and what they mean.

(sorry for the poor formatting of the table, this WP theme is really narrow)

Technology

Energy Density (Wh/kg)

Power Density (W/kg)

First Production

First in Cars

Implications

First-Gen Tech

100-125

900

2008

2010

These are the batteries the Volt & Leaf launched with. Some more recent EVs have slightly better tech (Teslas, new Fords, RAV4 EV, etc)

Silicon Anodes

200-300

1500

2013

2014

The first significant boost to Li-Ion batteries since the electrification of the vehicle started in 2010. EV range will increase to about 125-150 miles, from 75 today.

Layered Manganese Cathode

400-500

1200

2015

2017

The second major boost, this will push EVs to 200 miles of range. Prices come down enough that two car households will now start buying an EV to replace one of their gasoline cars.

Lithium-Sulfur

600-750

2000

2018

2020

EV range increases to almost 300 miles, enough to alleviate range anxiety for most drivers. Fast-charge systems between cities are robust enough to support long distance driving east of the Mississippi and along the west coast.

Lithium Air

1000

500

2020

2022

The low power density relegates this technology to grid backup at first, but after a while is improved to work in pure EVs (wont work in plug-in models). 400-500 mile range EVs become common with this technology.

Don’t hold me to this, no one can really predict the future. This is all based on how I see things going. The next 18 months or so will tell – can companies start to deliver on their promises of silicon anode batteries that have good enough cycle life for use in an electric car. If they can then we start to see larger gains in battery tech – instead of an 8-10% gain in energy density per year, we see closer to 20% per year.