Alvarez said that while voter registration favors a Democratic candidate he knows that Democrats are also less likely to show up to the polls for a special election.

“From my perspective, I represent San Diegans who want to see a shift and want to see a change in the power structure of the city,” Alvarez said. “So to the extent that a party affiliation benefits me that’s obviously a good thing for me. … We’re hoping to bring out people who don’t normally vote in special elections.”

Perhaps one of the biggest hurdles standing in the way of future Democratic dominance in the Mayor’s Office is the local Democratic Party itself. The party is well-known for its dysfunction and infighting. Those traits were on full display last year when its leadership wavered on whether to call for Filner’s resignation and then a rift emerged among prominent party members about whether to endorse Alvarez or Qualcomm executive Nathan Fletcher in the Nov. 19 special election.

By comparison, the local Republican Party and its supporters typically align quickly behind a particular candidate and often groom future candidates for years.

Democratic political consultant Chris Crotty said he’s not counting out Republican mayoral contenders anytime soon because the Democratic Party is undisciplined and doesn’t have a long list of promising future candidates.

“We are disorganized,” he said. “We don’t help each other out. We don’t have a good bench. … I still think you’re overestimating the Democrats’ ability to find a good candidate and run a good race even given the voter registration.”

While a Faulconer victory would be a return of Republican control of the Mayor’s Office, an Alvarez win would make him the third Democratic mayor in 15 months following Filner and Councilman Todd Gloria, who became interim mayor after Filner’s Aug. 30 resignation.