Euroleague Final Four. Fenerbahce – Real Madrid

Real Madrid arrives with a EuroLeague best 26-8 record, having scored the second-most points (86 ppg.) and led the league in assists (20.5 apg.), three-pointers made (9.8 per game) and performance index rating (101.6), but faces a team playing under the winningest head coach in EuroLeague history. The two teams split the season series, with Fenerbahce edging Madrid 78-77 at home in Round 10 and Madrid rallying to a 61-56 win in Round 29. That loss was Fenerbhace’s fourth loss in five games late in the regular season, but Coach Zeljko Obradovic, winner of eight EuroLeague titles and in his 16th Final Four as a head coach, had his team playing the best basketball of the season when needed most – in the playoffs.

Stats

Fenerbahce avg. pace: 141 attacks

Fenerbahce avg. scoring: 1,01-1,11 pts/attack

Real Madrid avg. pace: 143 attacks

Real Madrid avg. scoring: 1.09-1,16 pts/attack

Expected pace: 139 attacks

Expected total range: 146-157 points

Prediction

Fenerbahce 79 – 75 Real Madrid

I don’t want to gamble trying to predict the winner here, but I am forced to do this:)

Fenerbahce is home favorite and bookies give them -3.5 handicap due that. But Real is very experienced team and can win anywhere in Europe. A lot will depend on small details and teams form right today. Fenerbahce got its best form, when it was neeeded and it’s third season for Zeljko Obradovic here and usualy team get to its peak at 3rd year under one coach and core of players.

Both games in regular season were played in slow-medium pace (146 attacks in Turkey were done, 131 – in Madrid). I expect same average to slow pace today, but teams offensive quality is so good that they can score 150+ points even playing at slow pace. Trends are opposite. Fenerbahce has clear under trend (7-1 for Under in last 8 home games), Real goes 4-1 for OVER in last 5 games, but 10-7 for UNDER on the road in overall.

I expect defensive minded game here and 157 line looks at least 3-4 points higher, than it should be.

Pick: Under 157 @ 1.92

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