2.05.2008

My analysis of the Democratic and Republican delegate allocations will serve as my detailed preview of Super Tuesday, but here is a quick overview of what to look for tonight, and what states will be most important in determining tomorrow morning's headlines:

California, for both parties: Few people expected the Romney come back in California, but the primary here is closed and conservatives have rallied around Romney over the past week, giving him an opening to win the Golden State. Unfortunately for Romney, a win would not necessarily mean a delegate lead, since every district attributes 3 delegates (winner-take-all), whether they are a heavily conservative districts with hundreds of thousands of GOP voters or a liberal San Fransisco area with only a few thousands voters in a Republican primary. Ultimately, California will matter as a symbol in the GOP race. It will be much easier for Romney to justify continuing the race if he wins the country's biggest state.

Among Democrats, California will be essential to determining the storyline, though here also delegates are likely to be mostly split. An Obama victory would be the dramatic exclamation point to the candidate's surge over the past week, and give us a measure of his momentum going forward. If Clinton holds on to the state, it will allow her campaign to make the argument that Obama's momentum is being overstated, just as in New Hampshire. Polls have shown big leads for both candidates, so there is an expectation that Obama could do well today; that means -- however unfair that is -- that even a narrow Clinton win would be presented as a great victory for the New York Senator, just as in New Hampshire.

Illinois and New York, Democrats: Obama and Clinton will (almost) no doubt win their home states, but their margin of victory will determine just how big a lead of delegate they get. Will Clinton cross 15% in the Chicago districts? Will she cross 30% in most districts, allowing her to force a delegate split in the even-delegate districts? Will Obama do the same in upstate New York districts that award even number of delegates? (More information about this delegate distribution here.) Will he win some districts in New York City that he has targeted?

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