Team Health Reports

Colorado Rockies

the archives are now free.

All Baseball Prospectus Premium and Fantasy articles more than a year old are now free as a thank you to the entire Internet for making our work possible.

Not a subscriber? Get exclusive content like this delivered hot to your inbox every weekday. Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get instant access to the best baseball content on the web.

The Summary: It's pretty simple. When the Rockies are healthy, they win. When they're not, they don't—I mean they really don't. The roller coaster ride for the Rockies during the last five years correlates almost perfectly with injury. It's a bit of fool's gold, however. The team won without their expected ace (Jeff Francis) and didn't win when Troy Tulowitzki went down. That's hardly rocket science, and it tells Keith Dugger nothing about where he should focus. The team's injury stats are very much in the middle of the road when looked at on either a three- or five-year average, but no team is less telling when viewed that way than Colorado. Teams like this rely on luck a bit more than I like to see; if things break right, great. If not, it seems as if there's no real difference that the team can make. Of course, Dugger and his staff are working hard to try and prevent things, but there's just no tangible result we can see in the numbers.

The Big Risk: 609. 838. 732. 930. That's a statistical roller coaster. Troy Tulowitzki has put up those OPS numbers for the four years of his Rockies career. Is he a shortstop version of Bret Saberhagen, or is that 732 in the middle there the fluke? He certainly struggled with a quad strain in '08, then struggled even more for the first two months of '09. It's that latter part that's the real problem for PIPP. Was it more injury or just a slump? Since we don't know and neither do the Rockies, it's an apparent risk. We can say, for certain, that '08 was injury and measure the likelihood that something like that happens again. He's not much riskier than any other yellow-rated shortstop, but when you're talking about a guy going 15th overall, that turns any risk into a big risk.

The Comeback: The Rockies have signed Helton to an extension, pretty much guaranteeing that he'll retire as a Rockie. (Rocky?) Just two years ago, the idea that he would be playing in 2012 was almost laughable. With back problems draining his power, an intestinal issue causing more questions, and a mortal enemy in the humidor, Helton didn't look like he'd be able to stay at a level where he could stay productive enough to hold at first base. Instead, he's looking rejuvenated after a microdiscectomy. Will he get back to his previous All-Star levels? No, but he can certainly be productive in a late-career second wind.

The Trend: I feel like I could only repeat myself here after what I wrote in the summary. So just read that again if you're wondering. To give you something here, I'd say watch the pitching staff. With this many yellow ratings, we may be able to tell just how much of a difference the medical staff is making.The Ratings

SPJeff Francis: In the NL West, two pitchers are trying to come back from a lost season and a labrum repair. The success rate is low, but with Brandon Webb, people are expecting a return. With Jeff Francis, the expectations are significantly lower. Webb's ADP is 140, while Francis isn't even drafted in most leagues according to MockDraftCentral. It makes you wonder why the expectations are so different, doesn't it?RPFranklin Morales: At just 24, he's got a chance to come back, but back injuries followed by shoulder issues point to a kinetic chain issue. Given how hard he throws, it's only surprising that it's not worse.CChris Iannetta: Ianetta's problem hasn't been injuries; it has been inconsistency. This yellow rating is more about the position and the confusing way his career line tracks.1BTodd Helton: See The Comeback.3BIan Stewart: A young guy with back injuries usually turns into a 30-year-old who's talking about when he used to be a baseball player. The Rockies hedged by bringing in Melvin Mora in case the back and/or the batting average stays an issue.SSTroy Tulowitzki: See The Big Risk.RFBrad Hawpe: Hawpe fell apart in the second half. While there's not a known physical issue, the line sure looks like it. I'm very curious to see if there's something hidden here or if Hawpe really did just lose it.SPAaron Cook: Cook seemed to be all the way back from his lung problems, putting up solid, consistent numbers. Then his shoulder started acting up, much in the same way that many power sinker guys have. The Rockies shut him down quickly despite their playoff run. We'll soon learn if it was enough.SPJorge De La Rosa: De La Rosa has always been talented but inefficient. He found it last year and became a surprising winner. If he holds that, he'll be that good again. The innings are a bit worrisome despite his age, just because he's never been able to stay out there long enough to put them up in any great number.SPJason Hammel: He's 27, so the innings jump isn't as worrisome as it would be. He shifted from the pen, so again, no big deal. The question here is whether or not he can take another jump without overtaxing his arm.CLHuston Street: Street's shoulder has been problematic off and on, so much so that he's perhaps the least-known Galea client in baseball. When he's on, he's on, but early spring "stiffness" isn't a good sign that he can hold it together.2BClint BarmesLFCarlos GonzalezCFDexter FowlerSPUbaldo Jimenez

Regarding the ADPs of Webb and Francis...Webb was a much much better pitcher before these two were injured, so I think that would account for the disparity moreso than assuming Webb has a better chance of making it back to his previous level.

So Webb is a significantly better pitcher on a career level. Expect Webb's production to drop a run and he's still giving you a 4.3 ERA. Expect the same of Francis, who plays in Coors Field for half his starts, and his ERA jumps up to the 5.3 level.

Looking at everyone's new favorite stat (SIERA), the last season both pitchers were healthy (2007) Webb posted a 3.53 SIERA and Francis a 4.05. This year Webb is projected for a 4.18 and Francis for a 4.48. Although Webb is clearly better, it's not by an astronomical amount. I can see where Will is coming from.

He faced an additional 50 batters while reducing his walk rate over '08. He held over the 195 inning mark, not just holding, but getting better which is a major positive. There's a lot of positives. That PAP - wouldn't have had him in the Top 50 five years ago, I'd bet. (I checked ... 81916 for Jiminez in '09. He would have been 12th in '04, between Doug Davis and Randy Johnson. In 2000, he would have been 55th, between Steve Trachsel and Jeff Weaver.)