Can this rotation keep Astros in the hunt?

Shawn Chacon, Wandy Rodriguez, Chris Sampson and Brandon Backe don’t evoke memories of the best rotations in history, but they have fared well in leading the Astros to their big start.

But it doesn’t always pay to tip-toe through the stats pages. It can become eye-opening, if not frightful at times. Backe lost for the fifth time, but he started his ninth game of the season, his most starts in any season except for 2005. Backe could actually be on the way to his biggest season as a pro.

In fact, each of the four starters behind Roy Oswalt could have career years in several categories. Which tells you a little about the inexperience of those four.

Rotation Sans Oswalt: Best of their Best</center.

Pitcher

Most Starts

Most IP

Best Record

Chacon

27 (2001)

160 (2001)

11-8 (2003)

Backe

25 (2005)

149 1/3 (2005)

10-8 (2005)

Rodriguez

31 (2007)

182 2/3 (2007)

10-10 (2005)

Sampson

19 (2007)

121 2/3 (2007)

7-8 (2007)

Believe it or not, only Wandy has started more than 30 games and none of the four has pitched more than Wandy’s 182 2/3 in 2007.

On their current pace, both Chacon and Backe will top the 200 IP mark this season for the first time. If Wandy returns healthy soon and continues to go deep into games, he could also surpass his career mark for innings. Neither Backe nor Rodriguez has won more than 10 games, so that’s also a reasonable goal.

The problem with this scenario is that none of the four “qualifies” as a proto-typical #2, the guy who consistently gives you 6-7 solid innings every time out, 200 in a year and has a chance to win 15 games. Wandy could become that guy, but he’s not there yet.

For the record, I like each of the four for different reasons and they can all bring something to the table. But to have all four in the rotation — especially give durability and experience — may be asking for too much. When you’re expecting four starters to have career or near-career years, the gamble is high.

All of which raises the question: Can Chacon, Rodriguez, Backe and Sampson do the trick for Houston? Can they keep doing what they’re doing and will it be good enough to keep the Astros in contention all summer long? What are the odds this is the rotation after the All Star break? Down the stretch run?

Other than Jack Cassel and Brian Moehler as possible rotation replacements, you can keep an eye on Felipe Paulino’s recovery. He’s been on the DL since March 21 and is now throwing in extended spring training in Florida.

His ETA is still sometime in June or July though.

• •• ••• •• •

A few burning questions while wondering who Ed Wade uses the eject button on first: Towles, Bourn or Cruz Jr.

• Can’t the Astros teach Bourn and Matsui to drag bunt rather than continue to try to put the ball down the third base line foul?

• Has Cecil Cooper charged his starters to give up 2-3 runs early in the game to challenge his hitters’ late-game heroics? (It’s s joke friends.)

• Perhaps Cooper should have pinch hit for J.R. Towles in the eighth after Hunter Pence drew a two-out walk. Lefty Darin Erstad maybe? Cooper sits Towles for 2-3 days at times but lets him hit in these situations. Odd.

• Don’t know about you, but the Pence-Matsui collision took my breath away for a second. The Astros can ill afford to lose either for an extended period of time and it highlights how potentially fragile this winning stuff can be. Other than Berkman and Oswalt, which player would most affect the Astros’ winning capabilities?

• Berkman (12) and Pence (11) extended their hit streaks Tuesday night. Any idea when was the last time two Astros had simultaneous double-digit hit streaks?

• •• ••• •• •

It’s a special day at the Bailey household.

• My 18-year-old son, Jason, will graduate from Bethany Christian School tonight. He is an accomplished pianist and has been following his dream of ministry for the past few years. He is part of the worship team at Baker’s 10,000 member church, Bethany World Prayer Center.

• Meanwhile, Josh is completing his time at LSU-E, currently the #2-ranked JUCO in the country. The Bengals are competing starting today in the Region 23 baseball tournament to determine one of eight berths to the JUCO World Series later this month.

Josh has served as the fireman out of the bullpen this season, finishing the regular season with a 2.25 ERA in 35 innings. He’s given up only 3 extra base hits this season.

Josh is pictured at right with LSU-E sophomores (he’s #23, fifth from right).

48 Responses

“Bill Holmes… why vote Cruz off the island now? As a veteran, he’s probably more likely than Bourn or Towles to start being productive sooner rather than later.”

If Bourn were 35 years old, I’d drop him unless I could afford to keep a pinch running defensive outfielder. But he’s not – he’s 25, and supposed to be our CF for a few years, and unless he is batting .150 in mid-June, we have to see if he can grow into the job. Or do you want another Chris Burke on your hands? Ditto Towles as our catcher.

Hey, I’m glad Cruz went 2-for-3 the other day; I have been pulling for the guy all year. It’s the other 3-for-37 that has me concerned. I don’t want to dump him from the organization, but he needs to get that Spring Training stroke back and prove he wasn’t just lighting up pitchers that aren’t MLB quality. Batting .125 with a slugging % of .150 isn’t building a case to take over the CF job when even Erstad is dwarfing those numbers.

The play at the plate – that was a Moehler E, not Ausmus – if he gets the ball everyone is safe anyway – the catcher is “glued” for that play because he has to make a tag – Moehler hurried it and threw it away – rightly, his error. Been there and done that (from behind the plate) – I can make the argument that he should have abandoned the out and gone for the ball – that part is true, but the run scores either way – period.

You’re mistaken. Shea has proven himself to be a noted contributor, as intelligent as anyone, with insight beyond doubt.

Whether or not Ausmus is a “true” Astro or not has nothing to do with reality. That is, he’s a bad player (yes, despite the HR tonight), and even if J.R. and the Q are “mediocre”, they’re still far better than Ausmus, even on Ausmus’ best day.

Mark – You’d take Ausmus over Beltran? Wow! Can you imagine what the Astros would have been had we signed Carlos Beltran? With his speed, there would be no need for a Michael Bourn. And we never would have signed Carlos “No Defense” Lee. Oh, what could have been!

Ausmus is on our roster because we have Q and Towles otherwise, two other unimpressive major leaguers. No wonder we drafted a catcher last year. But if you’re any kind of an Astro fan you’ll remember when we drafted Robbie Wine from OSU. Or, you’ll remember we traded Ausmus to Detroit ’99 when we thought our future was Mitch Meluskey, who separated his shoulder. The same year Bradley hit .275 with a .415 slugging percentage, and was selected as their only All-Star.

When your picking your team on the playground, it’s kosher to grab the best athletes. But if I had my choice between Brad or Carlos “Turncoat” Beltran, I’ll take my chances with a guy whose got my back, and who is a true Astro.

The reality is that there are aging dinosaurs all over this team. The way I look at it now, the Astros have 2-3 more years tops with this nucleus at peak form. If we wait it out, then we will have only Hunter Pence as a player in his prime. I’m not sure about JR Towles and Michael Bourn panning out, but if they do, that should bode well for the Astros. Beyond that, though, if we don’t develop some talent quickly, then it’s going to be a sad 6-7 years after the 2-3 years we have with this nucleus. It would be wise to trade Carlos Lee for prospects after the year is over, as well as package Oswalt for some young kids. Boy, would I like to have a young Bagwell or Biggio playing for the Astros instead of guys that are going to be has-beens really soon and Lance “Fluke” Berkman.

All I can say, there are some real stupid people on here. The ones I am referring to are the ones who want to dismantle the team now. Are they crazy. One lose and they want to go crazy. It shows their ignorance about baseball.

Drop bourn seriously?!?!?! you people are stupid. every time he gets on base it’s a double. give him some time. after we traded taveras everyone was shouting how stupid we were but before everyone wanted him out. bourn is better than willy t, give him time this is his first real season. Drop towles… equally stupid. we have had ausmus forever and he is awful at the plate. i’ll take towles over him any day. also his first real season GIVE THESE GUYS TIME. i hate ausmus “oh hes good behind the plate” BIG WHOOP hes the double play machine. Patience people, until we start doing horrible they are fine. btw name a real replacement for bourn or towles that would be available? thats what i thought.

Bill Holmes… why vote Cruz off the island now? As a veteran, he’s probably more likely than Bourn or Towles to start being productive sooner rather than later. Actually he started Monday night with two hits and a walk.

I think if Backe improves, the rotation will be fine. Wandy still has to come back, of course, and we have to see how long he sustains himself this year. Last season, it was shown that he was good at home and not so much on the road. But late, he wasn’t good anywhere. Perhaps fatigue and 180+ innings caught up to him in August and September.

In general, I think Wandy will improve. And assuming our offense continues to produce (not at the current pace, obviously), the rotation looks to be just good enough to keep the lid on the other team. Which could mean a lot of 5-4 games.

I’ve said for a little while now that Nieve and Estrada should be the next ones up for closer and set-up man. Estrada has disappointed me, but Nieve being put into the bullpen for now looks like a good sign. Maybe he’ll start to accept his role now. Hopefully as he gets stronger, he’ll get another chance up here.

Burning questions:

1.) Even better, could someone teach them to hit it on the ground up the middle? I’m not a big fan of bunting. My selective memory is telling me we don’t seem to do it as much under Coop as we did under Garner, which is good. But last night they did get a little ridiculous with it. Towles trying to bunt for a hit…dumb.

2.) It didn’t work last night, but that’s baseball for you. It’ll work tonight, I’m sure of it.

3.) I honestly thought Towles was gonna knock one into left and tie the game. I have no problem with Cooper leaving Towles in; my problem with Cooper is when he takes Towles out.

And I think Erstad had already pinch-hit by then. Because Towles got out, and then Cruz, Jr. pinch-hit for the pitcher in the 9th.

4.) As soon as that happened, I said: “Matsui’s going on the DL for a month”. Then he stayed in the game, so you can imagine my surprise.

If we’re excluding Berkman and Oswalt, the next most precious one is obviously Tejada. I point to the routine he does pre-game as evidence. I wonder if the other guys watch him while he does that and laugh. It would be great to loosen them up, I’m sure.

5.) I have no idea. But I think either Bagwell or Biggio (or both?) were involved.

You mentioning the NLC dogfight reminded me of the Rockets and the Western Conference. I think there is more parity in the NLC this year than in past years. Everyone expected the Cubs, Brewers, and Reds to compete but thought the Astros, Cards and Pirates would be bottom feeders. Just like the Rockets without Yao still made the playoffs, I think the Astros can be surprisingly competitive this year. I think Chacon is sort of the Rafer Alston of the Astros. If he keeps having quality starts and if the Astros keep winning most of those games, I think for the first time in 3 years, we’ll be seeing the Stros still playing in October.

“Can they keep doing what they’re doing and will it be good enough to keep the Astros in contention all summer long?”

Unlike in 2007, we do not have two starters getting absolutely shellacked and tossing up monster blow-out losses virtually every time they take the hill. As long as neither Brandon, Wandy, Chris nor Shaun falls into the 2007 Jason Jennings/Woody Williams “I am a cigarette, who’s going to light me up?” pattern, our rotation is plenty good enough to enable the BLT-powered ‘Stros to contend in this division.

“It all makes perfectly good sense. Dismantle the hottest team in the majors. Pack it in now.”

Daveb – funny how people think – trade in the best thing in baseball (Berkman) – for some unknown – that thought process makes me wonder – a Card or a Cub?

Must confess – I woke up at 4:00am yesterday morning – was on the road all day and got back late. I saw one inning (behind 3-0), and made the mistake of laying down on the couch – as they say…forget it!

Needless to say I was disappointed this morning. I was looking forward to watching Backe throw. He did give us a quality start (3 runs)….but I hate to lose even one….wrong direction.

“All of which raises the question: Can Chacon, Rodriguez, Backe and Sampson do the trick for Houston?”

I’m going to do something I rarely do here – and go against the tide (lol)- but – Absolutely – it’s all about keeping the ball down – throwing strikes – keeping us close – and – pitching to potential.

I’m sure Ed has his own ideas and like many here…he probably won’t be standing pat.

– Backe gave us a quality start last night and we lost….no crime on his part….that’s just baseball.

– Chacon – just keep on trotting him out there.

– Wandy needs to come back and stay healthy.

– And Sampson needs to build on his last start.

It’s all on them.

“Can they keep doing what they’re doing and will it be good enough to keep the Astros in contention all summer long?”

Time will tell. As stated earlier – every pitch counts – they all need to remember that – games are won and lost on one pitch. Don’t throw a bad one.

What are the odds this is the rotation after the All Star break? Down the stretch run?

Ha! – time will tell…or….if we’re really lucky….we could go after:

Jason Jennings – 0-6 W/L – 8.56 ERA – .307 BAA

Barry Zito – 0-7 W/L – 6.58 ERA – .327 BAA

Justin Verlander – 1-6 W/L – 6.43 ERA – .266 BAA

Bronson Arroyo – 2/4 W/L – 7.14 ERA – .325 BAA

CC Sabathia – 2-5 W/L – 6.55 ERA – .304 BAA

Steve Trachsel – 2-4 W/L – 6.75 ERA – .295 BAA

Ted Lilly – 3-4 WL – 5.24 ERA – .340 BAA

Point being with the last two questions – it’s ALL a crap shoot…and a few on this list are one’s – someone here at one time or another – – wanted.

• Can’t the Astros teach Bourn and Matsui to drag bunt rather than continue to try to put the ball down the third base line foul?

These two should be working on this morning – noon and night….and in their sleep. Speed is the gift that cannot be acquired…use it!!

• Has Cecil Cooper charged his starters to give up 2-3 runs early in the game to challenge his hitters’ late-game heroics? (It’s s joke friends.)

Joke or not – it seems the team as a whole has a running bet – who will provide the game winner? An attribute of this team – you never know where it is going to come from….yes….Lance is a safe bet….but there is always a spark – ignition – and blast off…..we have had it all – from many different sources.

• Other than Berkman and Oswalt, which player would most affect the Astros’ winning capabilities?

Tejada…..period. Berkman and Tejada are going to play tag-team this year and carry us to where we all hope to go.

btw: we are 8-2 over the last ten – and still playing better than anyone else in baseball. The Cubs and Cards both lost last night….we didn’t lose any ground.

Cards are on a 4 game skid…and headed for fourth place.

And a look at the NLC overall – 4 teams are over .500 with the Pirates at one game under (19-20) and the Reds in the cellar at 17-23 – 6.5 back. We are in for a dog fight.

Chip – I’ve said once or twice before – great job with this site…and on the home front….thanks for the update on both.

Alright, people who are calling firesale… ARE YOU FREAKING KIDDING ME!?!? 16-6 since the 6-12 start this season, 1.5 GB in the division, and half a game out of the wild card (I know its early, but still good to see) and you want a firesale!? Alright, PERFECT SENSE!

Onto the rotation: Oswalt is still improving as the season goes on, and before you know it, we will have the typical Oswalt out there every 5 days doing what he goes best and getting wins. Backe just came off Tommy John Surgery, and if we can keep getting starts from him of 5-7 innings where he gives up 3-4 runs max, we are in all those games to win. Wandy will return and do well at home, and he was even doing well on the road until he got hurt. He will be fine. Chacon is tossing quality start after quality start, thats all you need to be in ball games and win them. Sampson seems to have found the mechanical issue, he should be good to go now.

Who should go 1st: Bourn and Towles are still learning, they’re fighting to get out of it, and given enough time, they’ll do fine. People seem too ready to pull the plug like they were on Ensberg, Lane, Scott, etc. If those players were given playing time, they could have produced. And these players we have now are rookies, were yall really expecting them to bat over .300 right away??? That leaves me to Cruz, he just doesnt seem to be getting it done as a backup. Maybe send him down to Round Rock and let him start there until he starts doing good, and then call him up again in September?

Congrats on your kids, you should be very proud.

Overall: It’s the middle of May, 22-18 on the season, 16-6 since the 6-12 start, 10-2 in this current month, and 1.5 back in the division. And whats crazy is it’s only Tejada-Berkman-Lee producing for the most part. We have yet to actually see what this whole team can do as a whole. Just wait till that happens, and we will be looking at an amazing team.

As for this rotation. Wow. I expected better out of Backe and Sampson than we’ve gotten so far. Sampson seemed to turn it around in his last start. Let’s hope he can keep it going.

Backe, though, is just average on his best days.

Last night was a great example. Given some decent run support, that’d be a win. But when the offense goes sour — and it will some nights — we’ll need a shut-down pitching performance. Well, we didn’t get one last night.

And Wandy has been on the shelf. No telling what that’ll do to his performance we saw out of the gate.

But, if Sampson straightens up, Wandy returns OK, and Roy can develop his consistency like he’s had in the past, this could be a good rotation.

And with this offense — even if it does take nights off — that should be enough to compete in this division.

I’m not saying Loretta everyday. He’s a lot like Lamb; good in spots, not-so much everyday. I am saying more spots, though. Put those three in a hat and pick ’em, get us a healthy competition going. We shouldn’t be afraid of the word “platoon” just because of names like Burke, Bruntlett and Lane.

This team surprised me by beating Sheets, I’ll be doubly so if we can get to Lincecum Thurs. That makes tonight pretty important if we’re going to even this series. Why do we have so much trouble with SF over the yrs?!

Looks like someone let Cubs fans in here – LOL. takes all kinds – how would we know how smart we are if we didn’t have a comparison??

Rotation and overachievement – except for ARZ, that’s what everyone vying for the NL Pennet will have to do to win it – and I like the fight in our 6-7 arms (after Roy, no question about him). But if someone that is a ligit #2 comes on the radar before the deadline – I would pull the trigger.

Who leaves when Wandy comes back? Bork – mainly because we can afford to lose him if we can’t get him to RR via the DFA/waiver process.

Catcher – specifically Towles. First, I don’t think sending him to RR is really going to kick start his bat, running him out almost everyday just might though. That said, lets say Coop doesn’t deside that Bourn should spend some time in the 8 spot with KazMat moving to lead-off and Towles into the 2 spot (ahead of Tejada with a good base runner – MUCH better pitch selection!!) – note that I’m keeping HP in the 6 spot because of the run production – then JR, still having multiple options can be sent down without a problem. The return from RR is a totally different story. The natural choice would be Q (he’s still hitting!) and if Towles started knocking the cover off the ball at AAA, making you want to bring him back – then you have to pass Q through waivers to get him back down. Unlike the first time, we are 33+ games into the season and a handful of teams are on the their 4th string catcher – he won’t clear this time. Unless you DFA Ausmus, which is completely unlikely. So the decision at catcher is a very tough one – for now, keep JR in HOU but move him up so he can see better pitching, if only for a while (2 weeks?) so that he gets his confidence back.

Congrats on both boys! – my 18 yr old is about to graduate HS and head to college as well, interesting set of emotions that causes.

Blum and Loretta cannot be everyday starters. When Loretta played everyday last year his average started going way down. If you trade Wiggy for a pitcher who is going to play at 3rd next year? The Stros minor leaguers at 3rd are more than a year away. No, they will stick with Wiggy who is still a heck of an improvement over “Deer in the headlights” Ensberg.

I agree with all on here calling for more bunts from Bourn and Matsui. Seems Willy tended to get on base a lot with those damned bunt singles and unlike Willy, Bourn knows how to run once on base.

Chip, I know why Blum got the start, but you may have already caught my drift that I’m advocating more AB’s for Loretta and Blum at 3B while Wigs is not hitting for power. Ty got the lone hit Monday when we didn’t need it, but otherwise, it’s a no-brainer that Loretta was the Red Sox All-Star 2B and he shouldn’t be riding our bench when Ty is not getting it done. If you want to talk about replaceable players, trade Wiggington for a pitcher.

A hearty “well done” to you and your bride in regard to life’s most important task – raising your children.

Faith, baseball, and music make a pretty good formula for success. Some say fishing works in place of baseball, and I tried that, but my sons all much preferred bats and gloves to rods and reels.

Regarding our beloved Astros. RELAX, everyone!

If we lose the next 2 games, it might be time to get a little concerned going into Rangerland — but closing out a winning streak by falling on the wrong end of a 2-run game on the road? Uh . . . do the words “Ain’t skeeered!” mean anything to anybody out there?

We lost a game – no big deal! The Giants simply outplayed us on this particular night. Matt Cain simply outpitched Brandon Backe. Cagy veteran Omar Vizquel made our rookie centerfielder look bad on a play that changed the complexion of the game. Our rookie catcher didn’t handle a sharp cutter at a critical time. It happens. These things have a way of evening out. That’s what makes baseball exciting.

The truty is, we will probably lose at least one more game — probably at least 2 — before we get home. Let’s be content with the fact that Michael Bourn and JR Towles both learned a valuable lessons last night that will serve them well the rest of their careers. [May they be long and illustrious!].

Losing brings the boo birds, but I’m always defending Backe by saying we didn’t score runs, and we looked uncharacteristic in the field that 1st inning. Even so, Backe didn’t keep the ball down early on–garbage in, garbage out. What do you expect.

As for this question of who to cut, I’m thinking it’s a lineup issue. People keep saying Bourn/Matsui, and I ain’t seein’ it. There’s got to be a better combo to stack the sacks. We’ve got contact hitters in Loretta (lack of speed problem), Pence and even Towles. Coop might consider playing with it a little, although it’s only one loss against a pitcher who gave up 5 to the Pirates last outing. Not really sure what to make of it?

Ya can’t win ’em all?

Anyway, these bloggers writing to trade Lance and Roy…please take off the Astro vaneer and return to your Cubs bithday suit. Granted, I have little faith in Houston bartering for a better deal. But I can’t think of who I’d rather have than those guys?

As for collisions, it would be in bad taste to say what I thought when Everett went down. As for any of these current players, I’d prefer that outfielders take all those type of bloopers, or at least practice the under/over method. We could ill afford to lose anyone in our starting lineup for lack of depth.

The experiment with Blum last night, I fear, will be short-lived.

Did anyone hear Morgan Ensberg’s interview last night? He sd “I know people in Houston will laugh but I’ve found a batting stance I think I’m OK with.” Yeah, Mo, hilarious.

[Blum played last night — and possibly tonight — because Wiggy was hurt after being hit in the ribs with a pitch Monday.]

Are we all watching the same team? Fire sale? You got to be kidding! If this were June or July the Astros would be in buying mode looking for a starter to bolster the rotation. I agree that Bourn and Towles are looking the best right now and a decision may have to be made in a few weeks if they don’t improve, but not now. This rotation will probably not make it intact to August but it’s what we’ve got now. Wandy will be an improvement when he comes back but Paulino won’t be a difference maker until July or August. The loss of Nieve as a starter is not good news.

Just an observation: Towles slump coincided with Cooper publicly calling out for more production out of him. This occurred after the second game against the DBacks where Towles actually hit his 5th homer but was only credited with a double due to an umpires error. Towles was only hitting around 200 at the time but had a respectable 338 OBA. Towles then was benched the next two games and due to an off day, it was three days later before he played again. I think Cooper’s timing of those comments and Towles subsequent benching was misplaced. Then after the hit-less streak began, Coop and Wade felt compelled to make public reassurances. By then Towles was already beginning to press at the plate and his slump is in full force as his avg is now in the 150 range. I do think it’s Towles responsibility to get himself out of the funk he’s in. However, even though Coop has done a lot of things well this season, his handling of that situation has hurt Towles’s progress.

I started reading the responses and thought I had gone back in time to the first day of April.

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Chip, congrats on your kids’ accomplishments. I’d say you must be proud of them but I already know that. Oops I said it again.

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I don’t think any five man rotation makes it through the season anymore, and I certainly don’t expect this one to do so. I see a lot of 4-5 inning August starts and a taxed bully if they do. I never expected Nieve to be a possible replacement – team brass seems to think he’s a future closer – but I am hoping for Paulino.

I don’t expect Moehler to toss 5 zeroes next start any more than I expect Chacon to pull a Cliff Lee and transform himself into a brilliant pitcher. Backe will gut it out – we’d be talking about his win last night if we had scored 5 runs – but agree that the first season back after TJ is a crapshoot. Sampson is also a health question. But maybe between the four of them you cover enough games to fill two rotation spots.

Wandy needs to come back healthy and build on last year. If he can, and Oswalt stays healthy, that’s two spots. The last spot could be filled with a combination of Cassel and Paulino…and maybe Muecke, Norris or James catches fire and comes up to help?

So as far as getting us there, I think health is our biggest risk. We don’t have any aces, and we CANNOT afford to trade 2-3 prospect pitchers on a retread fill-in. Looking at throwing a body out there every day, here’s how we could gut our way through:

(1) Oswalt

(2) Wandy

(3) Backe/Moehler/AAA or AA callup

(4) Sampson/Paulino

(5) Chacon/Cassel

That’s not going to scare anyone, but that’s our offense’s job.

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The player we can least afford to lose besides Berkman and Oswalt? Has to be Tejada, since we not only lose production but have no viable option to play shortstop. Blum and Loretta would be band aids on an open vein.

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Who gets voted off Astro Island? Sadly, it would be Cruz, who I really wanted to succeed. I would hope he’d clear waivers and lock in at AAA, then come back to help us later in the season.

As much as Towles and Bourn are struggling, we are winning games DESPITE that – when they start to come around a bit that will be icing on the cake. It’s only mid-May and maybe they have the yips at the plate – defensively you couldn’t ask for more from either one. They are projected as building blocks for our future and we HAVE to give them a chance. If they’re still batting a buck fifty in late June, then maybe you send them down to get straightened out in AAA, but what would you gain? They’re not blocking some stud player from a job – we’d wind up playing Erstad and Ausmus.

Wow…looks likeI ate a bowl of Verbose Flakes for breakfast. Back to you!

OK – where did all these nutters come from this morning? If Ed Wade even so much as passed the thought through his mind of trading Lance he’d be fired on the spot! And rightly so … please, this is a thinking man’s (person’s) blog – if you can’t think, please don’t post!

IMHO bunting is really a big problem with this team. There’s hardly a single pitcher who can lay down a sac. bunt (at least you don’t really expect it to happen when they come up to the plate). I also agree that Bourn and Towles need to learn the art of the drag bunt, especially Bourn. The havoc he plays with the other team when he’s actually on-base , he needs to get on in any way possible.

Cruz Jr. needs to go.

Cooper does not pinch hit nearly often enough in crucial situations.

Lastly, thanks for the update on the family. You should be (I know you are) very proud. You and your wife have done a great job with those boys.

He has been truly dreadful. He is also 1 1/2 years older than Towles. I am willing to stick with a 24 year old rookie a bit longer than I am willing to stick with a 25 year old rookie who never really hit well in the minors.

Both should play. For now. If we had a right handed young outfielder in AAA who could hit…I would glady hand him the CF job against lefties and let him push Bourn out of the lineup.

_____________

The pitching will be the death of this team. Chacon will slowly elevate his ERA to 4.50’ish and we will be stuck with 5 pitchers who are all pitching worse than you expect from their respective slot in the rotation.

I imagine the rotation will stay the same through August. There is nobody in AAA who can really help. You could take a chance on Freddy Garcia I guess.

Maybe Wandy will be the answer.

Although….truly recovering from surgery takes awhile. Its possible that Backe is pitching at 95% right now and will be back at full strength by August. Often the Tommy John surgery guys continue to get arm strength and bite on their breaking balls well after they are back in the rotation.

Wow, everyone was so chipper (no pun intended) yesterday. Did one loss really take that much air out? The hitting was so-so, but the situational hitting was worse. There was that mental stall in the first where Vizquel cruised to second, the missed tag for an out on Pence in the ??? There will probably have to be some changes in the rotation. I don’t know. For the 3 years I’ve been watching baseball, I’ve just never been impressed with Brandon Backe much. I appreciate his competitive edge but he seems hot and cold? Maybe that’s just me knowing very little about baseball. I also expected Sampson to do MUCH better than he’s showing. Chacon has been a pleasant surprise, but stats people say it’s only a matter of time. After Roy, who himself has been sorta iffy this year, it’s kind of a hold-your-breath and see what you get. We’ve got Moehler tonight. Can he repeat his Dodger performance?

Oh yeah, I’ll go with Cruz Jr too. Great story with father and son but it’s hard to argue with a .125 BA.

First – Thanks to Bill Holmes for your kind words in the previous post.

Second, my take on the starting rotation.

I think that we will be seeing vintage Roy O. more often as the season progresses. He’s still got a lot left in the tank. If he can control his curve, he’ll do very well.

Backe – someone needs to hypnotize him before each game and tell him that the game is a crucial playoff game. He’ll be gangbusters.

Wandy – I still think he will be a legitimate #2. It’s always been a confidence issue with him and I think he will pitch better for Coop than he ever did for Garner, because I think Coop legitimately believes in him.

Sampson – If he pitches like his last start and it really was just a mechanical issue, we are looking at a #3+ starter. However, I’ve felt since last year that he has nagging injuries and I agree with Steven about the possibilities for the DL.

Chacon – Truly a wild card. If he can continue to get quality starts and keep us in games, what’s not to like. I’ll give him the benefit of a doubt.

What it boils down to, for me, is that it’s almost like we have a #1- pitcher and a bunch of #3+/- pitchers. As long as they can keep us in games and give our offense a chance, we have a chance with this rotation. If not, I trust that we will see Ed “Wheeler/Dealer” Wade making some noise around the All-Star Break.

I’m also curious to see what Moehler does in this next start.

As far as who goes first – definitely, Cruz, Jr. I think Wade really wants to give Towles and Bourn every opportunity to develop.

Just my take. And congratulations on the family milestones, Chip. Enjoy your family – life is short.

Personally I think the philosophy of a fire sale doesnt always work. I bet your the kind that hits the reset button on the playstation when your losing in MLB 08. But blogs are for opinions.

No this rotation as is will not keep this team in the hunt. Here is some reasons:

Roy O – He is GOOD, but he is no longer GREAT. I said it many times before the season and now all I can tell you is told you so. I still feel blessed to have him, I still love watching him pitch, but the reality is what I predicted for him, an upper 3 ERA and 15 wins is going to be what we hope we get. That means someone is gonna have to make up the difference in winning more games then they are supposed to.

Wandy – Home-riguez has already started the yearly pattern of pitching well at home, while Road-riguez, albeit in only one start due to injury, has not. We have to have a number 2 that is going to be more consistent.

Backe – I said at the beginning of the year it would be foolish to depend on a tommy john recoverer to pitch well in his first full season, none of them ever do. I think Brandon’s future is bright, the next 3 or 4 years after this one he should have his best years, but the reality is exactly what we are seeing, a pitcher with a lot of heart but struggling with his mechanics, velocity, and location. Typical of a surgery with minimal pitching time in the last 2 years. We will be lucky if he pitches well enough to get 10 wins, 12 if we are super lucky, and he stays healthy.

Sampson – I would bet my last dollar that Sampson will spend at least one stint on the DL, and I don’t think it will be one of those short stays either.

Chacon – Run for the hills now. Here are some facts about Chacon – In his career he has walked 434 batters in 836 innings prior to this year, or 4.67 batters per nine innings(in comparison, Roy O has walked 338 in 1470 innings). His BAA against is .260. This year he has walked 4.09 batters per nine innings, and BAA is .253. He is pitching slightly better this year then his career. Only slightly. He is a ticking time bomb, and he is set to explode in our rotation. He isn’t missing any more bats then he ever has, his K/9 rate is only .08 higher then his career average, his BAA and BB/9 look about the same, but his ERA is substantially different. I am guessing a few good defensive plays and few lucky innings with stranded base runners account for the change in ERA, eventually teams are gonna make him pay for his mistakes. I have heard people call for Sampson’s head early, lets remember that Sampson had a better season last year then Chacon has posted in 6 of his 7 major league seasons. I have more confidence in Sampson then Chacon.

This doesn’t mean I doubt the Astros will contend, I think I said at the beginning of the year in response to Bill’s blog that the Astros were destined for 83-85 wins, in which Bill replied to remind me that is contending if you can find a way to win a few you shouldn’t. But if the Astros want to be contenders, real contenders and not we need a good win streak and some luck to survive, then they will look hard at Garcia, they will start popping teams that are out early for their 3 or 4th starters, and they will have to increase payroll to accomodate getting those starters.

Congrats, Chip, on your two fine sons. Does Jason like baseball too? I’m living proof you can be a piano major and a baseball nut at the same time. And if I wanted to send you something via snail mail, how would I contact you?

[Jason was a fine baseball player before migrating towards his life choice. Still likes to watch a good game. Send any emails to astrosfanblog@yahoo.com.]

I wish this team would have had a fire sale a long time ago. We have only one legitimate 1-2 starter in Roy Oswalt, and Wesley Wright is the only young guy out of the bullpen. Miguel Tejada is nearly 34 years old, and he will only help the club for two years at that. And to say we traded 5 players, all of whom could have played into our future, for an aging shortstop?!?! I say “ridiculous”. Miggy is an April and May hitter historically. I’d be really surprised if he played this way for the whole year. The rotation is mediocre at best, and the Astros shold trade away Carlos Lee, Roy Oswalt, and Lance Berkman for some young talent. You heard it hear first!

[Maybe I wasn’t clear which team we were talking about on this blog. It’s the hottest team in baseball, the Astros. Fire sale? By the way, Tejada is a pretty even hitter in his career, .288 in the first half, .288 in the second half.]

If Wade cuts Towles, then that means Ausmus has got to play… and Ausmus’s play over the years has been nothing short of a Greek tragedy.

Cruz simply can’t get the job done. And Bourn appears to need some at bats at Round Rock. But the thought of watching Ausmus play everyday again simply makes this Astros fan want to vomit… at least Towles tries to hit the ball, which is more than I can say for “Bas” Ausmus.

And while we’re talking about cutting ballplayers, let’s include Doug Brocail in this list. He can’t hold any runners and is giving up too many gopher balls in tight situations.

I think this team is playing about as well as we can expect this year. Barring injuries, I’m still predicting about 84-86 wins.

I like this team… they hustle and never give up. The foundation for the future is solid. A couple of pitching moves in this next off-season, and suddenly we may be talking title run next year.

Very good blog, thanks Chip. My son lives in the greater boton are but will join my wife and I in Houston for a couple of games later in this month. I hope the team wins all the games we attend, and most of the games before we get there and most of the games after we leave.