Rick Perry's slide has reopened the competition for the hearts and minds of the Tea Party Right

It’s too soon to say that Rick Perry’s campaign is over, but things look bad. He still leads the Republican field in national polls, but three terrible debate performances have weakened him. The latest New Hampshire poll puts him in fourth place in that crucial state. He compounded his bad press by losing last Saturday’s Florida straw poll to former pizza chain CEO, Herman Cain. Mitt Romney – this year’s leading moderate – sat out the vote, but Perry took it seriously. He threw money at the event and greeted voters at a lavish breakfast. Perry gave a little speech (8 minutes long) and the Los Angeles Times reported that the applause was “perfunctory”. Cain went onto beat Perry by 37 to 15.4 percent.

Perry has offended everyone. His positions on immigration and compulsory vaccinations have tipped off conservatives that he isn’t as Right-wing as they thought. He could make up for that by appealing to independents and crossover Democrats. But his description of Social Security as a Ponzi scheme has alienated centrists. Mitt Romney has cynically but brilliantly exploited Perry’s radical rhetoric to suggest that he can’t beat Obama. Mitt is turning into the Richard Nixon of 2012 – slippery and ruthless, yet well attuned to the public mood. He will exploit anything to get elected. If privatising Social Security turns into a vote winner between now and next November, expect Romney to go on TV and call for it to be outsourced to China.

Perry’s stumbles open up the field on the Right. That’s good news for two of the also-rans who had been nipping at his heels. Michele Bachmann still matters; after all, she won the important Iowa Straw Poll. She and Rick Santorum have performed well in the debates and are emerging as a Greek chorus of Republican conscience. Santorum might be a born loser, but he has elevated himself among the conservative faithful. He has become a standard bearer for the Christian Right.

Also doing well is Ron Paul, who has had a good debate season. The national media take the Flat Earth Theory more seriously than they do Dr Paul, but he is still third in the polls. The decline of foreign policy as an issue of importance has given him time to show off his domestic credentials. And no one is consistently more Right-wing more of the time than Ron Paul. In the last debate, he brought the house down with his one sentence solution to the growth of the federal government: “Veto every single bill that violates the tenth amendment.” (For British readers, that’s the American equivalent of saying, “Leave the European Union tomorrow.”) There is now a roadmap to Paul becoming a serious candidate and it starts with placing second in Iowa and New Hampshire. You won’t find many media outlets willing to report it, but right now he’s on course to do just that.

But there are two people who haven’t declared who are suddenly worth a second look. One is New Jersey governor Chris Christie who, according to Politico.com, is “reconsidering” a run and will announce his decision within two weeks. Christie has been talked up by east coast media outlets for some time and has the advantages of being an excellent, witty speaker and an electable conservative. But he isn’t as well-known as he should be, and insiders say that he’s left it too late to gather the requisite amount of money and foot soldiers.

Strangely, the stronger candidate is Sarah Palin. For months now commentators (me included) have been saying that she is damaged goods and that the longer she has waited to announce her candidacy, the less logistically possible it has become. But now we’re wondering if Mrs Palin hasn’t been playing a brilliant long game, letting the other candidates beat each other up before entering the fray. Perhaps the biggest issue of this primaries season is authenticity: Romney has none and Perry’s has been called into doubt. Palin is low on personnel and money, but the Tea Party knows who she is, believes in her and will back her if there’s no viable conservative alternative. There’s no one more authentically Right-wing than Sarah Palin.

Palin is just five points behind President Obama in a hypothetical match-up: a better position than Rick Perry. If she jumped in now – and it would have to be now – she would eclipse Perry as the anti-Romney candidate overnight. Perhaps this won’t happen; perhaps it is too late for her. But the shadow that Palin and Christie are casting over this race is indicative of its uncertainty. After all these noisy debates, we’re no closer to knowing who will beat Obama in 2012.