One million inhabitants could be flooded and 6.5 million could suffer electricity or water outage in case of a major Seine flood in the Ile-de-France (Paris) region – these impacts question the feasibility of a massive evacuation in the scenario of a flood similar or superior to the 100-year flood of 1910. Our study aims at developing a decision support tool for the regional authorities (Préfecture de Police de Paris), in their planning process of a massive evacuation. It consists in a GIS methodology designed to identify spatialized emergency sheltering needs of affected populations. The methodology relies on the combination of two indexes, aggregated at the building scale: (1) an “exposure index” – aggregating different variables related to the features of the hazard and its physical direct impacts (flood height, geographic isolation, utilities outage). This index is computed for a given flood scenario and stems from the planning process of the Préfecture de Police de Paris, coordinating crisis management at the regional scale, and its considerations regarding a potential evacuation strategy; (2) a “self-sheltering index”, aiming at representing the inhabitants' capability to take refuge by their own means, amongst friends or relatives, and synthesizing social and demographic variables. These variables are identified through an appropriate state-of-the-art of former massive evacuations.

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