The big question in every business leader’s mind must be “Will Globalization really work, or will we return to a divided world?”

Shaping events are events that we know, with a reasonable degree of certainty, will come to fruition. When they do, we can see the reaction. And the world’s reaction will give us powerful clues as to which way the world is moving and how business and private lives may change.

Other examples of shaping events are

Emerging food shortages

An energy supply crisis

Aging populations in the developed economies

The success of Nato’s military operations in Afghanistan.

There are more, and tracking shaping events in a world that is in a state of flux is now a critical activity for any business – as important as tracking your competitors.