In-fighting could destroy Democrats

LeRoy GoldmanGoldmind

Published: Sunday, March 16, 2008 at 4:30 a.m.

Last Modified: Monday, March 17, 2008 at 8:50 p.m.

Since the violent self-destruction of the Democratic Party at its Convention in Chicago in 1968 over the war in Vietnam, this nation has had a center-right governing coalition. Richard Nixon laid the foundation for this governing majority and Ronald Reagan cemented the coalition in place.

LeRoy Goldman

Then in 1994 the Republicans won control of the House of Representatives for the first time in 40 years.

With the election of George Bush, the GOP had control of all of the levers of power in Washington. They had the White House, the Senate, the House of Representatives, the vast federal bureaucracy, and the power of judicial appointment. At last — at long last — they had reached the Promised Land.

Now, only eight years later, Republican stupidity, sloth, avarice and arrogance at both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue have created the external political force that is poised to sweep away all of the hard-fought Republican gains of the past four decades.

Take a look at the most important election result this month. No, it’s not Hillary Clinton’s unexpected win in the Texas primary. It’s the outcome in the special election a week ago in the 14th Congressional District in Illinois. This is the safe Republican district, based in DuPage County and the Fox River Valley, one of the suburban “collar᾿ counties that ring Chicago.

Illinois-14 has been home for 20 years to former House Speaker Dennis Hastert, who recently resigned from Congress. Hastert commonly carried the district with 60 percent of the vote. Bush carried it in 2004 with 55 percent. But last week the Democrat, Bill Foster, cruised to victory with 53 percent of the vote. A swing of 10-15 percent from one party to the other in a safe district portends a sea-change election.

This is why GOP strategists in their haunts in the U.S. Capitol and in their inner sanctums of their lobbyist supporters along K Street in Washington are terrified of an oncoming Democrat tidal wave this fall.

A large majority of the American people, including many disaffected Republicans, no longer supports the war in Iraq. Add to this the failure to produce immigration reform, the felony conviction of the vice president’s chief of staff, the GOP scandals on Capitol Hill, Republican profligate spending and now a collapsing economy and you have the ingredients for Republican catastrophe.

But wait, there’s more!

There is now evidence that the Democrats may do for the Republicans what they cannot do for themselves.

Hillary Clinton’s victories in Ohio, Rhode Island and Texas have done much more than provide another near-death escape for her candidacy. The death struggle between her and Obama is now on the edge of Armageddon.

It is now clear that neither of them can amass enough pledged delegates to win the nomination by the time of the final primary in Puerto Rico on June 7. There is likely to be a bitter struggle between them over how to attempt to redo the invalidated primaries in Florida and Michigan. In addition, the 350 or so superdelegates, who remain uncommitted, are unlikely to swing to one candidate or the other in sufficient numbers to put one of them over the top.

Between now and the August Convention, it appears likely that Clinton and Obama will spare nothing to gain the advantage. If that occurs, look for Clinton to expose the flimsiness of Obama’s track record in the Illinois legislature. Look for her surrogates to probe deeply into the public corruption trial alleging extortion, money laundering and fraud by Syrian-born Antion “Tony᾿ Rezko. Rezko, a wealthy Chicagoan, has been involved in land deals involving Obama. Watch for her to pound Obama on NAFTA and his aide’s remarks to Canadian officials soft-peddling Obama’s promise to renegotiate the treaty.

Obama is likely to hammer away at Clinton’s refusal to release the public documents covering her years as first lady, documents, which might well prove or disprove her claims of relevant experience to be president.

Obama or his surrogates may well attack Clinton on issues including Travelgate, the death of former Clinton White House lawyer Vince Foster, her dealings in commodities trading that enriched her, and her activities as the first female partner of the Rose Law Firm and its connection to the Whitewater matter. They may well point the accusing finger at Bill Clinton’s disgusting willingness to be a race-baiter in the recent South Carolina primary.

They will probably raise questions about the undisclosed sources of funding for the Clinton Presidential Library.

The opening salvo has already been fired. Just the other day, one of Obama’s foreign policy advisors called Hillary a “monster.᾿

If this occurs, it will set the stage for a bitterly divisive convention fight in Denver. And that creates the real possibility that the Democratic Party will self-destruct at its convention, just as it did in 1968.

This is the needle that John McCain and his running mate might just be able to thread. It may be their only chance at averting annihilation.

And speaking of his running mate, I believe he might be prescient enough to name John Thune. Never heard of him? Well that may be about to change.

Times-News community columnist LeRoy Goldman puts a masters degree in political science to use in his hobby of predicting elections. His column appears on the third Sunday of the month.

<p>Since the violent self-destruction of the Democratic Party at its Convention in Chicago in 1968 over the war in Vietnam, this nation has had a center-right governing coalition. Richard Nixon laid the foundation for this governing majority and Ronald Reagan cemented the coalition in place.</p><p>Then in 1994 the Republicans won control of the House of Representatives for the first time in 40 years.</p><p>With the election of George Bush, the GOP had control of all of the levers of power in Washington. They had the White House, the Senate, the House of Representatives, the vast federal bureaucracy, and the power of judicial appointment. At last  at long last  they had reached the Promised Land.</p><p>Now, only eight years later, Republican stupidity, sloth, avarice and arrogance at both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue have created the external political force that is poised to sweep away all of the hard-fought Republican gains of the past four decades.</p><p>Take a look at the most important election result this month. No, it’s not Hillary Clinton’s unexpected win in the Texas primary. It’s the outcome in the special election a week ago in the 14th Congressional District in Illinois. This is the safe Republican district, based in DuPage County and the Fox River Valley, one of the suburban collar᾿ counties that ring Chicago. </p><p>Illinois-14 has been home for 20 years to former House Speaker Dennis Hastert, who recently resigned from Congress. Hastert commonly carried the district with 60 percent of the vote. Bush carried it in 2004 with 55 percent. But last week the Democrat, Bill Foster, cruised to victory with 53 percent of the vote. A swing of 10-15 percent from one party to the other in a safe district portends a sea-change election.</p><p>This is why GOP strategists in their haunts in the U.S. Capitol and in their inner sanctums of their lobbyist supporters along K Street in Washington are terrified of an oncoming Democrat tidal wave this fall.</p><p>A large majority of the American people, including many disaffected Republicans, no longer supports the war in Iraq. Add to this the failure to produce immigration reform, the felony conviction of the vice president’s chief of staff, the GOP scandals on Capitol Hill, Republican profligate spending and now a collapsing economy and you have the ingredients for Republican catastrophe.</p><p>But wait, there’s more!</p><p>There is now evidence that the Democrats may do for the Republicans what they cannot do for themselves.</p><p>Hillary Clinton’s victories in Ohio, Rhode Island and Texas have done much more than provide another near-death escape for her candidacy. The death struggle between her and Obama is now on the edge of Armageddon.</p><p>It is now clear that neither of them can amass enough pledged delegates to win the nomination by the time of the final primary in Puerto Rico on June 7. There is likely to be a bitter struggle between them over how to attempt to redo the invalidated primaries in Florida and Michigan. In addition, the 350 or so superdelegates, who remain uncommitted, are unlikely to swing to one candidate or the other in sufficient numbers to put one of them over the top.</p><p>Between now and the August Convention, it appears likely that Clinton and Obama will spare nothing to gain the advantage. If that occurs, look for Clinton to expose the flimsiness of Obama’s track record in the Illinois legislature. Look for her surrogates to probe deeply into the public corruption trial alleging extortion, money laundering and fraud by Syrian-born Antion Tony᾿ Rezko. Rezko, a wealthy Chicagoan, has been involved in land deals involving Obama. Watch for her to pound Obama on NAFTA and his aide’s remarks to Canadian officials soft-peddling Obama’s promise to renegotiate the treaty.</p><p>Obama is likely to hammer away at Clinton’s refusal to release the public documents covering her years as first lady, documents, which might well prove or disprove her claims of relevant experience to be president. </p><p>Obama or his surrogates may well attack Clinton on issues including Travelgate, the death of former Clinton White House lawyer Vince Foster, her dealings in commodities trading that enriched her, and her activities as the first female partner of the Rose Law Firm and its connection to the Whitewater matter. They may well point the accusing finger at Bill Clinton’s disgusting willingness to be a race-baiter in the recent South Carolina primary. </p><p>They will probably raise questions about the undisclosed sources of funding for the Clinton Presidential Library. </p><p>The opening salvo has already been fired. Just the other day, one of Obama’s foreign policy advisors called Hillary a monster.᾿</p><p>If this occurs, it will set the stage for a bitterly divisive convention fight in Denver. And that creates the real possibility that the Democratic Party will self-destruct at its convention, just as it did in 1968.</p><p>This is the needle that John McCain and his running mate might just be able to thread. It may be their only chance at averting annihilation.</p><p>And speaking of his running mate, I believe he might be prescient enough to name John Thune. Never heard of him? Well that may be about to change.</p><p>Times-News community columnist LeRoy Goldman puts a masters degree in political science to use in his hobby of predicting elections. His column appears on the third Sunday of the month.</p>