23 September 2004 Edition

Rainbow warriors in disarray

IMAGINE this for a political strategy. First, repeatedly call for a
Presidential election and suggest one of your most widely admired and
respected TDs as your candidate.

Then sign a political accord, in Mullingar of all places, with a bigger
party who have promised to back your candidate's opponent in the election.
Step three is to betray your own nominee, acrimoniously splitting the
party's leadership in doing so, before briefly rowing in behind the
candidate of a smaller party that is competing in your core constituency.

It might be going too far to suggest that Labour's chief strategist, Fergus
Finlay, whose delusions of grandeur now require him to be described as the
chef de cabinet, is a Fianna Fáil sleeper but it is the Government who have
the most to celebrate from the ongoing Presidential nomination fiasco.

Any slight nervousness that Fianna Fáil strategists might have felt about
the emergence of the so-called alternative coalition in the form of Fine
Gael, Labour and the Greens must be quieter now in the face of the
inspirational ability of the Opposition leaders to score own goals.

None of the three aligned opposition parties emerged unscathed from the
debacle that is likely to result in McAleese's unchallenged re-election but
it is undoubtedly the Labour Party that has suffered the most.

Pat Rabbitte's extended media honeymoon has come to an end, and not before
time. He has failed, and in a glaringly public manner, at the first serious
hurdle of his leadership. After repeatedly stating that he wanted to see a
Presidential election, even supporting the notion that the candidate would
be Michael D Higgins, he rowed back at the last minute, betraying the Galway
West TD and splitting his parliamentary party.

And yet worse was to come. Labour's National Executive Council (NEC) is
becoming a centre of resistance to Rabbitte. Angered that they were not
consulted before Rabbitte signed the grandiose 'Mullingar Accord' and
including some opposed in principle to a pre-election pact with Fine Gael,
the NEC dissidents have been holding their fire and waiting for their chance.

The one vote margin defeating the Higgins nomination was a narrow escape for
Rabbitte, as the internal political consequences of the repudiation by the
NEC of the Labour parliamentary party would have been massive in their
implications. Such a split bears comparison with the infamous Labour
bloodbaths of the '80s.

Last weekend, Rabbitte, speaking at the Tom Johnson Summer School, stressed
his commitment to protecting the identity and policies of the Labour Party
in any pre-election pact. But having already made plain his desire for such
a pact, he approaches Kenny with an already exposed and undermined
negotiating position. His desperation is showing.

The rationale of giving Labour TDs the green light to back Eamon Ryan is
also open to question. The Greens are Labour's major challengers for the
liberal, middle class votes of Dublin suburbia. Ryan's seat is a top target
for Labour, with Ivana Bacik rumoured to be their preferred option. What
tactical sense does it make to give such a rival an enhanced profile?

Kenny's supporters in the media have been claiming that he has displayed
good political judgement in deciding not to contest the Presidential
election. The truth is that it is merely symptomatic of how far, despite a
relatively good performance in the Local and European elections, Fine Gael
has fallen.

They are receiving plaudits for their inability to present a viable
alternative candidate, for their incapacity to run a Presidential election
campaign and their cowardice in not challenging a President still widely
perceived as a Fianna Fáil candidate despite her newly acquired Independent
tag. It is hardly the sign of the Blueshirt rejuvenation so loudly trumpeted
in June. What kind of opposition party leans heavily on its own councillors
to prevent Dana appearing on the ballot paper?

Meanwhile, the Greens have spent a week confirming their reputation for the
bungling amateurism that characterised their inept summer election campaign.
Barely had Eamon Ryan declared his candidacy on RTE Radio before a Green TD,
widely assumed to be John Gormley, was ringing Charlie Bird to disassociate
the party from the proposal.

Leading Green Party figures like Deputy Leader Mary White and former MEP
Patricia McKenna, no doubt evening scores with Ryan, who was responsible for
the party's failed European campaign strategy, queued up to throw cold water
on the proposal. In the end, after leading the Green Party grassroots to the
very brink of madness, Ryan pulled back, withdrawing his name last Saturday.

But while the Green Party might have finished up looking a little
ridiculous, Ryan himself has boosted his media profile ahead of what
promises to be a tough fight to retain his Dublin South seat and he has
assured himself of a ministerial post if the alternative coalition wins at
the next election. And he has done so with the help of Labour, the very
people targeting his seat.

But the notion of the new Rainbow taking power at the next election is
looking increasingly far-fetched. Between them, the three must gain 26
seats, not counting any seats they exchange between themselves and this in
the context of the gains even Sinn Féin's opponents have accepted as
inevitable for republicans. A political shift of such size has not been seen
since the foundation of the state.

The new Rainbow has now failed to present a united front in the summer
elections and has been exposed as being in complete disarray in its approach
to the Presidential election. The 'Mullingar Accord' clearly excluded the
Green Party from its dealings and there is as yet no sign of any coherent
platform emerging on which three disparate parties can unite. With the
Greens still seriously considering opposing the European Constitution, more
incoherency is on the horizon.

So, Fianna Fáil get their nominee returned without an election, thanks to
confusion between Labour and the Greens, and Fine Gael's squashing of Dana.
The self-proclaimed alternative Government seems incapable of political
agreement and the Labour Party is shaping up for a bout of severe infighting.

Now if they could only sort out those Shinners, everything would be rosy.