Apple could lose a quarter of its smartphone market share by next year amid intensifying competition from emerging markets, Fitch Ratings warned in a report Tuesday.

The ratings firm said South Korea’s Samsung Electronics could lose as much as 14 percent of its smartphone market share for the same reason.

Apple and Samsung’s smartphone shipment volume is expected to stagnate around 450 million to 460 million units this year despite a forecasted industry-wide increase of about 20 percent to 1.2 billion units, Fitch said.

This comes as handset makers in emerging markets like China and India produce less-advanced devices that are far cheaper than those offered by industry heavyweights. Fitch says the more basic devices retail anywhere from $100 to $300, as opposed to new iPhone and Galaxy devices that run closer to $600 without subsidies.

“We believe growth will come largely from emerging markets,” Fitch Ratings said in the report.

Fitch also said Apple’s iPhone 6, expected to launch this fall, is “unlikely to change the trend.”

However, the downward trend in market share is not affecting Samsung’s single-A-plus credit rating. Fitch said its analysis has always assumed Samsung’s robust smartphone margins were “unstainable in the long term.”

Fitch has not released a public credit rating on Apple.

Shares of Apple were higher on Tuesday. They are up about 20 percent year-to-date.