Why a Giants, Giancarlo Stanton marriage makes perfect baseball sense

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Giancarlo Stanton #27 of the Miami Marlins leads off from first base in the first inning against the New York Mets on August 18, 2017 at Citi Field in the Flushing neighborhood of the Queens borough of New York City. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)

Giancarlo Stanton #27 of the Miami Marlins hits a two run home run in the first inning during a game against the San Diego Padres at Marlins Park on August 25, 2017 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)

Giancarlo Stanton #27 of the Miami Marlins cools off in front of a fan in the dugout in the seventh inning during a game against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park on August 22, 2017 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Hunter Martin/Getty Images)

Giancarlo Stanton #27 of the Miami Marlins rounds second base after hitting his 50th home run of the season in the eighth inning against the San Diego Padres at Marlins Park on August 27, 2017 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Eric Espada/Getty Images)

WASHINGTON, DC – AUGUST 28: Giancarlo Stanton #27 of the Miami Marlins walks back to the dug out after striking out in the forth inning pitches during a baseball game against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park on August 28, 2017 in Washington,DC. (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images)

Miami Marlins’ Giancarlo Stanton, right, celebrates with Gaby Sanchez after hitting a solo home run off San Francisco Giants’ Santiago Casilla during the tenth inning of their game at AT&T Park in San Francisco, Calif. on Wednesday, May 2, 2012. (Jane Tyska/Staff)

Giancarlo Stanton #27 of the Miami Marlins celebrates with Dee Gordon #9 in the dugout after hitting a homerun in the third inning during the game between the Miami Marlins and the San Francisco Giants at Marlins Park on August 15, 2017 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images)

Miami Marlins’ Giancarlo Stanton, left, and Marcell Ozuna score in the eighth inning at AT&T Park in San Francisco, Calif., on Friday, May 8, 2015. (Jim Gensheimer/Bay Area News Group)

The Miami Marlins’ Giancarlo Stanton gets high fives after hitting a fifth inning home run against the San Francisco Giants at AT&T Park on Sunday, July 9, 2017, in San Francisco, California. (Karl Mondon/Bay Area News Group)

Miami Marlins’ Giancarlo Stanton watches his two-run home run off San Francisco Giants’ Matt Moore during the first inning of a baseball game Friday, July 7, 2017, in San Francisco. (AP Photo/Ben Margot)

Take Our PollThe Giants and the Miami Marlins need what the other team has and may wind up hooking up on a massive offseason blockbuster trade. And, in a trend that has become quite common in recent years, the star player will ultimately decide his own fate.

USA Today’s Bob Nightengale set the baseball rumor mill ablaze this week when he reported that the Giants, Cardinals, Rangers, and Phillies all have interest in an offseason trade for Marlins’ Ruthian slugger Giancarlo Stanton, citing a Marlins’ high-ranking executive. His report indicated that the Giants have “the strongest interest” in a potential trade.

Gary Radnich and I had Bob on our KNBR show (10am-1pm) on Tuesday to discuss his story, and he expanded on his original report, saying that there was a “95% chance that Stanton will be traded this offseason and a 51% chance it will be to the Giants.” Nightengale also indicated that St. Louis is the Giants’ top competition for Stanton.

The Giants are badly in need of a big bopper in the lineup, a middle of the order presence to protect Buster Posey, and they are desperate to make another World Series run with their current cast of future Hall of Famers in Posey, Bruce Bochy, Brian Sabean, and Madison Bumgarner and a roster filled with players and coaches with postseason experience.

The Giants’ franchise is synonymous with power hitting. “When the Giants come to town, it’s bye bye baby!” That’s the way it used to be. The club’s history in San Francisco is filled with some of baseball’s most entertaining power hitters beginning with the greatest living ball player Willie Mays.

In 2017, while the rest of baseball is enjoying a power renaissance, the Giants and their fans have endured a power outage. They have hit the fewest home runs in baseball. They entered this week’s series trailing the lowly Padres in home runs by a whopping 25, and Brandon Belt leads the club with only 18.

While the Giants have an acute need for power, they don’t have a robust farm system or many trade-able pieces on their current major league roster that they can use in potential trades. The resource the Giants have in abundance is you, the fan. The fans in the Bay Area have gone through the turnstiles at AT&T Park at a rate of over 3 million per season, EVERY season since the park opened in 2000.

The Giants sold out 530 consecutive games due to the passion of their fans. The constant presence of those fans has made the Giants a huge box office success. The ownership group has paid off the debt service on the park ahead of schedule, and Forbes Magazine has reported that they generate north of $450 million annually in total revenue, with an annual profit margin of approximately $150 million. Any way you slice it, the Giants, due to their army of loyal fans, are cash rich.

The Marlins are cash poor and in desperate need of a financial bailout. They may be baseball’s most volatile franchise, having won two World Series titles (1997, 2003) in their 25-year history. While they have enjoyed two titles, if they opt to blow up their roster again this offseason, it will be their fourth fire sale.

The Marlins’ story is a familiar one. They are no different than the couple who gets buried in a mountain of credit card debt. The franchise was recently sold by Jeffrey Loria to a group led by Bruce Sherman and Derek Jeter for $1.2 billion. Sherman is a New Yorker who founded Private Capital Management in 1985 and sold it in 2001 for $1.4 billion, and he will become the controlling owner of the team.

At this point, you have to ask the question, why would the Marlins’ new ownership want to trade a megastar like the 27-year-old Stanton, who is hitting .402 with 17 home runs with a .485 on base percentage over his last 23 games? Why pawn your best player, a future Hall of Famer, your best drawing card, and the face of your franchise in the prime of his career? The answer is that the new ownership group wants to hit the re-set button and start fresh.

With Stanton, a 4-time All-star currently in his 8th season with the Marlins, they average a National League worst 20,904 fans per game, haven’t drawn over two million in attendance since 2012, and have MLB’s least lucrative local TV contract, generating only $20 million annually.

Sherman and Jeter inherit a franchise that currently carries a debt of $500 million and is due to lose somewhere between $60-90 million more in 2017. The Marlins have $488 million in future commitments, with $406.5 million due to be paid to four players: Stanton (owed $295M), Dee Gordon (owed $38M) Christian Yelich (owed $45M), and Martin Prado (owed $28.5M).

Stanton’s contract, which goes through 2028, is so monstrous that he recently passed through waivers unclaimed. Miami had an opening day payroll of $116 million in 2017 and would like to cut that down by roughly $20 million by 2018.

There have been multiple reports that indicate the plan is to pare down the payroll dramatically and attempt to rebuild around a star like Manny Machado who may be a better gate attraction in South Florida.

There are many questions still left to be answered. Among them is how much of the Marlins’ future commitments are the Giants’ owners willing to take on? How favorable of a trade should the Giants receive if they do agree to take on $300 million? What do the Giants have to do to land Stanton over the other clubs showing interest?

Here is the 12-player blockbuster I’d like to see. Stanton, Gordon, Yelich, and Prado to the Giants. That’s $406 million in contractual commitments. If the Giants are going to take on that much money, they’d likely want Miami to take back some burdensome contracts. Johnny Cueto will opt in for financial reasons, but he’d prefer to be East so I’d send him along with Denard Span, Joe Panik and five prospects (RHP-Tyler Beede, CF-Bryan Reynolds, 3B-Ryder Jones, RHP-Joan Gregorio, and LF-Mac Williamson) to Miami.

It’s clearly a favorable player swap for the Giants, but it’s also a $300 million Marlins bailout. The Marlins’ new owners can start fresh, hit the franchise reset button and pursue a new path, while the Giants would ignite their lineup with both power and speed, and give their fans a reason to buy tickets for 2018.

The Marlins may need the Giants more than the Giants need them. Stanton isn’t the only source of power in the market place, so the Giants do have other options. Jon Morosi tweeted on Tuesday that the Giants and Tigers have discussed a trade this week for Justin Upton, who has the ability to opt out of his current contract at season’s end, and JD Martinez and Lorenzo Cain are both set to be free agents this winter.

Ultimately Stanton himself will have the final say on his next destination. Stanton possesses a full no-trade clause as well as an opt-out in 2020. According to some reports Stanton’s preference, as a native and current resident of Los Angeles, may be to play for the hometown Dodgers. The possibility that the 110-win+ Dodgers could potentially add Stanton likely adds to the Giants’ urgency. It should be a juicy offseason. Stay tuned.