(CNN) - Republican state assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava appears to have the advantage in the race to fill the U.S. House seat from New York formerly held by John McHugh, now the Secretary of the Army.

According to a new survey from Siena College released Thursday, Scozzafava has a 7-point lead over Democrat Bill Owens, 35-28 percent, in next month's special congressional election in the state's 23rd district.

Doug Hoffman, a conservative third-party candidate who has won some high profile national endorsements, registers 16 percent in the poll.

The district encompasses a broad swath of upstate New York and bends solidly Republican. McHugh won his 2008 reelection race by nearly a 2-1 margin.

soundoff(19 Responses)

Yeah yeah...we already knew there were pockets of population in America that like to vote against their own interests.

October 1, 2009 12:14 pm at 12:14 pm |

B. Smith

Since when is a 7 point lead a tight race???

October 1, 2009 12:28 pm at 12:28 pm |

Randolph Carter

What do upstaters know? They call hamburgers "steamed hams" fer crying out loud. Except in Utica, of course. Have a nice day!

October 1, 2009 12:31 pm at 12:31 pm |

Kate in SW Fla

The Democrats are bankrupting us? To borrow a phrase from the very colorful Barney Frank, on what PLANET do you spend most of your time?

October 1, 2009 12:34 pm at 12:34 pm |

Michael

A 7 point lead is a tight race when neither candidate is over 40% If it was 51% to 44% then that would be a nice lead, but 35% to 28% means it is close. Since the 2008 margin was 65% to 35% in favor of the Republicans a 23 point from from a 30 point victory shows how the country is reacting to the GOP tactics.

October 1, 2009 12:36 pm at 12:36 pm |

Gary

The Democrats in congress are not listening to the people. They are passing extremely liberal bills that the majority of the country do not want. I think that we need more balance in congress including more Republicans and more Independents (like me). It seems like when one party (either party) has too much control, they take advantage of that power.

October 1, 2009 12:40 pm at 12:40 pm |

Buster

The NE, with New York included is run by a bunch of liberals. High taxes, high home taxes, tolls, etc. When the economy slumps, then they realize that government has gotten too big.

October 1, 2009 12:59 pm at 12:59 pm |

Ken

"The Democrats in congress are not listening to the people." Please stop deluding yourself into thinking that you are an independent when all you can do is spew the [R] fantasy mantra. The congressional [D]s ARE listening to the people, people like ME who voted them in there to clean up YOUR [R] mess. There's nothing "extremely liberal" about the bills in Congress, unless your view of the world is from peeking out of Rush Limbaugh's hind end. We are trying to dig this country out of the biggest [R]-generated problem since the last major [R]-generated problem of 1929. But I'll give you one thing, it is a testament to the LIBERAL nature of our constitution and civil law that neo-morons are allowed to speak their empty minds.

October 1, 2009 01:06 pm at 1:06 pm |

Greg in MO

I live on the planet that sees the "successes" of liberal democrat's policies in cities like Chicago and Detroit. When will you wake up and realize that these ideas are a big failure. Kids being beat to death and those being killed cannot even be buried? Why in the world would anyone vote for the political party that has been running these cities and states? I'm from a heavily republican region and lived in Chicago for many years. I can say that, if everyone could see the difference, there would be no more liberals in office.
And don't bother trying to compare to "the last 8 years". Sorry, these economic problems began with liberals. Open your eyes wide and look farther back in your history.

October 1, 2009 01:09 pm at 1:09 pm |

The Lonely Libertarian of Liverpool NY

Go Doug GO! no more DNC or RNC, leave these two major parties out of office in the cold of the upstate winter screaming names at each other, while the third party comes in and restores the US Constitution.
We can not watch one second of TV without the attack ads of the two major parties, calling each other bad names and screaming at the voters. This is what the leadership of the two parties has become, sickening.

October 1, 2009 01:13 pm at 1:13 pm |

I support President Obama!

What crazed thinking person would consider voting for a republican? You all didn't get enough of them destroying this country??

October 1, 2009 01:31 pm at 1:31 pm |

Vote out all republicans!

The last thing this country needs is another republican/conservative in office.

October 1, 2009 01:32 pm at 1:32 pm |

bush VICTIM

Please people, this country cannot take any more republicans!

October 1, 2009 01:32 pm at 1:32 pm |

carlos, THAT one

LIBERALS, intelligent, caring, strong and determined

repugnants, insignificant, non IQ'ers

October 1, 2009 01:43 pm at 1:43 pm |

dave

seems the Republicans forgot who got us in this mess in the first place, the Republicans don't want anything good to happen because it will only make their party look more out of touch than they already are.

October 1, 2009 01:55 pm at 1:55 pm |

tara

CNN probally won't post this but
CNN TICKER IS CONFUSING. I live upstate. What the Ticker is trying to tell you is that this is a Solid Republican district that is no longer solid republican and that in fact in may go democratic. honestly the 3rd party conservative is making a difference as well but the democrat is have an unusually good showing especially for this very rurual and very conservative area of NY I live there I know. NY state is very rural. ONlY down state new NY city , Buffalo Albany Syracuse and Rochester are LIBERAL the suburbs of these cities are like backwoods farmlands not even upscale suburbs.

October 1, 2009 02:13 pm at 2:13 pm |

B. Smith

If you look logically at this there is a 3rd candidate who has taken 16 points from Dede,, so this would make it a 51-28 race, close to 2-1 as in 2008.

October 1, 2009 02:22 pm at 2:22 pm |

Illiterateidiot

Yes, the Democrats have all the answers for bringing our Nation up, making all the same, no achievers, no losers. That is why all of the liberal ideas introduced to liberate our society have been such wonderful successes of social and fiscal accomplishment. It still has not set in to the left or right zealot, that it does not matter which party, our Government establishment serves their same corporate masters. The elitist lawyers in Washington continue to write laws while our Government refuses to enforce them equally or fairly in the best interest of Americas citizenry. The elitists continue to take their Government paycheck with benefits that the common man in private enterprise shall never see in their working career. Yes, the Democrats have all the answers just as do the Republicans.

REVOLUTION IS ON THE HORIZON, when middle America wakes up and realizes the dream is gone!