Both local TV stations and cable TV system operators are expected to benefit from increased political ad spending in key battleground states. But cable TV firms such as Comcast (CMCSA), Time Warner Cable (TWC) and Charter Communications (CHTR) are getting a bigger chunk of ad spending, analysts say, as campaign strategists target demographic groups among viewers.

"Cable allows campaign managers to surgically target their advertising not just to battleground states, but to battleground neighborhoods," said Bernstein Research analyst Craig Moffett. That's why cable has "captured a higher and higher share of political ad spending with each election," he said.

With political spending on ads expected to ramp up until Election Day, Nov. 6, cable firms are expected to see their biggest lift in the fourth quarter.

Comcast, with 22.1 million video subscribers, and Time Warner Cable, with 12.5 million, are by far the two biggest U.S. cable companies. And No. 4 Charter Communications, with 4.3 million video customers, operates cable systems in battleground states such as Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota and Missouri.

"Charter could see a late-cycle surge of ad revenue in those key states," said Vijay Jayant, an analyst at ISI Group.

Jayant estimates Comcast will rake in $200 million in political ad spending in 2012, while Time Warner Cable garners $88 million and Charter about $26 million.

"We'll have a good third quarter in advertising and fourth quarter due to political spending that comes every two years," Comcast's chief financial officer, Michael Angelakis, said at a Goldman Sachs conference on Sept. 19.

Spending usually picks up in a presidential election. This year's contest between President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney is close, polls show.

"It's safe to say that (cable ad revenue) should grow at least in line with the overall rise in spending on political advertising this year," said Pivotal Research Group analyst Brian Wieser.

He estimates nearly 10% of total ad revenue for Comcast and Time Warner Cable comes from political spending.

"Cable gets a relatively small part of its revenue from local advertising," Moffett said, "but local cable advertising is almost pure margin (profit). And the numbers can be big in political years like this one."

The ad revenue this election is expected to be higher in part because of a 2010 court ruling. The U.S. Supreme Court, in Citizens United vs. the Federal Election Commission, said the government could not restrict political spending by corporations, unions and others. Political action committees called Super PACs have upped ad spending as a result of the ruling.

Using data from Kantar/Campaign Media Analysis Group, Jayant estimates that all pay-TV service providers — including cable, satellite broadcasters and phone companies — will bring in about $480 million in political ad revenue, about 16% of $3.1 billion expected to be spent in the U.S. on candidates and ballot measures. He estimates that DirecTV Group (DTV) will get $48 million in political ad revenue and Dish Network (DISH) about $34 million.

There's a sure winner this presidential election — cable TV firms.

Political ad spending is boosting cable TV revenue, analysts say.

Both local TV stations and cable TV system operators are expected to benefit from increased political ad spending in key battleground states. But cable TV firms such as Comcast (CMCSA), Time Warner Cable (TWC) and Charter Communications (CHTR) are getting a bigger chunk of ad spending, analysts say, as campaign strategists target demographic groups among viewers.

"Cable allows campaign managers to surgically target their advertising not just to battleground states, but to battleground neighborhoods," said Bernstein Research analyst Craig Moffett. That's why cable has "captured a higher and higher share of political ad spending with each election," he said.

With political spending on ads expected to ramp up until Election Day, Nov. 6, cable firms are expected to see their biggest lift in the fourth quarter.

Comcast, with 22.1 million video subscribers, and Time Warner Cable, with 12.5 million, are by far the two biggest U.S. cable companies. And No. 4 Charter Communications, with 4.3 million video customers, operates cable systems in battleground states such as Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota and Missouri.

"Charter could see a late-cycle surge of ad revenue in those key states," said Vijay Jayant, an analyst at ISI Group.

Jayant estimates Comcast will rake in $200 million in political ad spending in 2012, while Time Warner Cable garners $88 million and Charter about $26 million.

"We'll have a good third quarter in advertising and fourth quarter due to political spending that comes every two years," Comcast's chief financial officer, Michael Angelakis, said at a Goldman Sachs conference on Sept. 19.

Spending usually picks up in a presidential election. This year's contest between President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney is close, polls show.

"It's safe to say that (cable ad revenue) should grow at least in line with the overall rise in spending on political advertising this year," said Pivotal Research Group analyst Brian Wieser.

He estimates nearly 10% of total ad revenue for Comcast and Time Warner Cable comes from political spending.

"Cable gets a relatively small part of its revenue from local advertising," Moffett said, "but local cable advertising is almost pure margin (profit). And the numbers can be big in political years like this one."

The ad revenue this election is expected to be higher in part because of a 2010 court ruling. The U.S. Supreme Court, in Citizens United vs. the Federal Election Commission, said the government could not restrict political spending by corporations, unions and others. Political action committees called Super PACs have upped ad spending as a result of the ruling.

Using data from Kantar/Campaign Media Analysis Group, Jayant estimates that all pay-TV service providers — including cable, satellite broadcasters and phone companies — will bring in about $480 million in political ad revenue, about 16% of $3.1 billion expected to be spent in the U.S. on candidates and ballot measures. He estimates that DirecTV Group (DTV) will get $48 million in political ad revenue and Dish Network (DISH) about $34 million.

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