Commentary and Tracking of a Portfolio of Stocks using approach from "The Little Book that Beats the Market" by Joel Greenblatt aka Magic Formula Investing

Sunday, December 31, 2017

Flashback

Flashback

Well, it is a very very cold New Year's Eve. I took a walk at about 11 this morning and it was 12 degrees. Now at 3 pm it is 8 degrees. I have a nice fire going, watching some meaningless NFL games and thought I'd do a flashback.

Let us take a look at some of my expired MFI Select Portfolios and see how the stocks have fared since then. I have outperformed with those picks... but would the outperformance have continued? I have my doubts... but let's flashback!

First portfolio. August 2012:

8/15/12 Stocks

Start

Current

Dividend

Pct Gain

R3K Gain

DLB

$34.43

$33.04

$4.00

7.6%

22.1%

KFY

$13.98

$18.95

$0.00

35.6%

22.1%

MSFT

$30.19

$31.92

$0.92

8.8%

22.1%

NSU

$3.62

$3.33

$0.12

-4.6%

22.1%

UIS

$19.96

$24.52

$0.00

22.8%

22.1%

Totals

14.1%

22.1%

That was how the portfolio ended in August 2013. Now let us look from 2013 to current:

8/15/13 Stocks

Start

Current

Dividend

Pct Gain

R3K Gain

DLB

$33.04

$62.00

$1.66

92.7%

48.8%

KFY

$18.95

$41.38

$1.20

124.7%

48.8%

MSFT

$31.92

$85.54

$5.61

185.6%

48.8%

NSU

$3.33

$2.41

$0.72

-6.0%

48.8%

UIS

$24.52

$8.15

$0.00

-66.8%

48.8%

Totals

66.0%

48.8%

Wow, pretty impressive. Still a solid win.

Now November 2013. Here is the Portfolio that started Nov 2012:

11/15/12 Stocks

Start

Current

Dividend

Pct Gain

R3K Gain

AAPL

$537.62

$527.28

$8.75

-0.3%

36.7%

ABC

$40.21

$69.23

$0.86

74.3%

36.7%

LPS

$23.89

$34.26

$0.40

45.1%

36.7%

VIAB

$49.12

$80.94

$1.15

67.1%

36.7%

WU

$12.77

$16.40

$0.50

32.3%

36.7%

Totals

43.7%

36.7%

Now let's look since 11/13 (I will withhold LPS as they were bought):

11/15/13 Stocks

Start

Current

Dividend

Pct Gain

R3K Gain

AAPL

$75.33

$169.23

$7.28

134.3%

52.5%

ABC

$69.23

$91.82

$4.80

39.6%

52.5%

LPS

n/a

n/a

n/a

n/a

VIAB

$80.94

$30.81

$5.00

-55.8%

52.5%

WU

$16.40

$19.01

$2.55

31.5%

52.5%

Totals

37.4%

52.5%

The VIAB stinker just too much to overcome.

Now February 2013-14

2/1/13 Stocks

Start

Current

Dividend

Pct Gain

R3K Gain

AAPL

$450.60

$500.66

$8.75

13.1%

21.1%

GA

$6.10

$11.01

$0.65

91.2%

21.1%

STRZA

$16.06

$27.98

$0.00

74.2%

21.1%

CA

$25.07

$32.08

$1.00

32.0%

21.1%

NUS

$41.94

$116.59

$1.20

180.8%

21.1%

Totals

78.3%

21.1%

That was a great tranche. GA was bought not long thereafter, so I will exclude.

2/1/14 Stocks

Start

Current

Dividend

Pct Gain

R3K Gain

AAPL

$71.52

$169.23

$8.75

148.8%

52.7%

STRZA

$27.98

$35.52

$0.00

26.9%

52.7%

CA

$32.08

$33.28

$3.50

14.7%

52.7%

NUS

$116.59

$68.23

$4.76

-37.4%

52.7%

Totals

38.3%

52.7%

Once again, a stinker is enough to drag down results.

Now May 2013-14:

5/6/2013

Start

Current

Dividend

Pct Gain

R3K Gain

KLIC

$11.40

$14.44

$0.00

26.7%

18.9%

CYOU

$29.24

$28.02

$0.00

-4.2%

18.9%

RDA

$9.74

$16.79

$0.10

73.5%

18.9%

NVDA

$13.85

$18.43

$0.32

35.4%

18.9%

CF

$183.97

$243.22

$2.80

33.7%

18.9%

Totals

33.0%

18.9%

Well, this one will be terrific with NVDA. I will drop RDA as they were bought.