Individual Risk and Need Assessment in

Individual Risk and Need
Assessment in Criminal Justice
Pennsylvania Commission on Crime and
Delinquency
Criminal Justice Advisory Board Conference
State College, PA
October 28, 2013
Presented by: Kathleen Gnall, Owner
Gnall Consulting
Presentation Overview
• The U.S. Justice System: How
effective and efficient are we?
• Evidence: What does it mean? Why
does it matter?
Assessment: The Foundational
Evidence-based Practice
• Individual Assessment
Methods
What are we measuring?
Risk and Criminogenic Needs.
Screening instruments,
comprehensive risk and need tools
and specialized assessments: what’s
the difference?
Where used in C.J. system? Purpose?
Assessment: The Foundational
Evidence-based Practice
The science and the policy: cut-off
scores.
Common Risk/Need Tools.
• Are some better?
• How choose?
Challenges in implementation.
Fourth generation assessments as
ways of addressing issues.
“Take-Aways
A Visit to the Doctor
 Sudafed it is!
 Maybe I should get a
second opinion!
How Can You Assess?
• Clinical Judgment
Based on training, education,
experience and often gut.
About the same accuracy as
flipping a coin.
How Can You Assess?
• Actuarial instruments designed and
tested on offender populations
Consistently shown to be superior to
unaided clinical judgment.
• Best outcome combine clinical and
actuarial.
Risk Defined
• What is Risk? The statistical
probability of reoffending.
Actuarial tables.
Not political, popular.
Scientific statement about general
reoffending.
First Cut
• Screening instruments or screeners
Few questions
All or mostly static factors
Information readily available
Very quick to administer
Sorts into “buckets” often low, medium,
high according to probabilities of
committing new crimes.
Must meaningfully differentiate.
Risk Profile
• A risk profile is comprised of static and
dynamic factors.
Stable static factors such as age at
first arrest, number of arrests are
predictive of future behavior.
Other static factors, such as age,
which do change but cannot be
influenced, are likewise predictive.
Criminogenic Needs
• Beyond screening, comprehensive
assessments which consider static and
dynamic factors which contribute
(statistically linked) to criminal
behavior.
Criminogenic Needs
Anti-social
attitudes
Anti-social
values and
beliefs
Impulsivity
Risk-Taking
Anti-social
Associates
Poor problemsolving skills
Low levels of
education
AOD
Dependence
Isolation from Limited Work
pro-social
Skills and
others
History
Lack of Family Poor DecisionCohesion
making skills
Assessment Instruments
• Valid – is the tool predictive
of recidivism?
• Reliable – different people
assessing same offender
same results?
What Can You Tolerate?
• “Norming” establishing cut-off scores;
a policy decision.
• How much risk willing to assume at
various levels.
False Positives and False Negatives
e.g. Is low a 30 percent chance or a 10
percent chance?
Where Used, How Used
• Situations where liberty interest sentencing
Multiple, sometimes competing
goals of the justice system.
Consider historical factors and
those for which individual has
control.
Where Used, How Used
• Pretrial
Lower-level offenders who don’t
have substantial history and who
have needs such as mental health
and/or drug and alcohol that
appear to driving behavior.
Usually screener. ORAS as example.
Does not include any info. about
current arrest.
Where Used, How Used
• Incarceration
Priority for treatment.
Priority among need areas.
Type and intensity of
interventions.
Where Used, How Used
• Release Decision
Readiness. Conditions.
• Community Supervision
Level and conditions
Risk/Need Instrument
Examples
• Level of Service Inventory
Case Management
• Wisconsin Risk/Need and
Proxy
• COMPAS
• ORAS and location specific
instruments
Risk/Need Instrument
Examples
• In Common
Historical Variables
Age at first arrest
School performance –
suspended/expelled?
Prior supervision experiences –
abscond/walk away
Risk/Need Instrument
Examples
• In Common
Key Need Areas
Antisocial attitudes, friends,
family
Use of Leisure Time
Drug and Alcohol Use
Education and Employment
Financial/Life Skills
Risk/Need Instrument
• All designed, tested extensively
• All reliable/meaningfully
differentiate when administered
and used properly
• More about practical
considerations
Considerations in
Selection
• Purpose
• Ability to collect in automated
system
• Committed to understanding and
appropriately using information
• Cost
• Ability to analyze and use
information to influence policy
Considerations in Selection
• Monitoring Reliability
• Training/Re-training
• Readministration
How’s It Working Thus
Far?
• Not Great. WHY?
Administer instruments, ignore results.
“Paper in file.”
Have results, treat everyone the
same.
Use overrides inappropriately.
Culture change is hard – staff
resistance.
Solutions
• 4th generation instruments
synthesize results which are used
to drive case plan.
• Look to other jurisdictions to see
results.
E.g. University of Pennsylvania
Richard Berk and Philly Probation
Implementation
• Do No Harm
• First step in Evidence-based
system
• Focus on the horizon
• Organizational Assessment and
Readiness
• Create clear, compelling
statement of goal
Implementation
• Engage. Teach. Listen.
• Take the time to do it right the
first time.
Questions/Further Information
Kathy Gnall
Gnall Consulting
[email protected]
717-795-1753
www.gnallconsulting.com