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I reached the point of political exhaustion last week in a big way. This doesn’t mean I’m tuned out, but right now I find myself glossing over Facebook rants or skimming certain conversations because they’re only going lead to arguments. Yet still I hoped we could chat briefly about politics and real estate – without unfriending each other. Then let’s take a deep look at the Sacramento market. Any thoughts?

Huge Data Fail & Predicting Real Estate: The media laid an egg when it came to predicting the presidency. In fact, it seemed like many political pundits were shell-shocked when election results were coming in contrary to their predictions that Hillary would win. I don’t mention this so we can argue, but only to remind us of the danger of predicting, being wrong, and then having pie on your face (losing credibility). If some of the best political minds in America couldn’t predict the outcome of the presidential race, can we really predict the future of the real estate market with certainty?

Trump Presidency and Newlyweds: I’ve been asked a couple of times this week how a Trump presidency has impacted real estate so far. My answer is simple. Imagine asking a newlywed couple after one week of marriage to tell us how their marriage is going. It’s only been a week though. We probably need more time to really know how married life is going to unfold. The same holds true with Trump’s impact on real estate. We haven’t had enough time to see waves in the market yet, and nobody really knows how his policies will affect housing. There are many predictions right now, especially about repealing Dodd-Frank, but those are only guesses (see paragraph above).

Any thoughts?

—-—–—– And here’s my big monthly market update ———–—–

Two ways to read the BIG POST:

Scan the talking points and graphs quickly.

Grab a cup of coffee and spend time digesting what is here.

DOWNLOAD 71 graphs HERE: Please download all graphs in this post (and more) here as a zip file. Use them for study, for your newsletter, or some on your blog. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim). Thanks.

NEW: I created a one-page market sheet to print and keep handy when talking about real estate. I figured it might be helpful to use while talking on the phone. I’m not sold on the look, but is this a step in the right direction? Download here.

Quick Market Summary: A brutal election season has ended (thank God), and many Americans feel worn out, but the market doesn’t feel that tired. The truth is when we look at the stats we are seeing about what we’d expect at this time of year. Ultimately prices are down 1-3% from the height of summer, it took two days longer to sell a house last month, and inventory is down 14% in the region from last year. It’s easy to see softer stats and assume the market is beginning to crash, but the market softens like this almost every single year (besides 2012 when Blackstone and friends gutted the market and we didn’t have a normal fall season). I’m not saying values are not inflated, affordability isn’t becoming more of a factor, or even the market won’t turn at some point, but only that things feel fairly normal right now for the season. Sales volume has been strong this year in Sacramento and is up slightly from last year despite cash and FHA volume both dropping by 7-8%. Inventory is anemic and there really isn’t a quick solution to deal with that problem, but buyers are still finicky about price despite very few homes being listed on the market. Sellers don’t get this, so they try to command whatever price they want, but that rarely works in this market. Keep in mind buyers are scouring Zillow and Redfin every single day, they are visiting properties with their agent, they are getting beat out on other homes, and they are often looking for MANY months before getting a contract accepted. Sellers frankly are not doing anywhere near this level of research, which is one reason sellers are less in tune with proper pricing. Check out specific stats and graphs below for Sacramento County, the Sacramento Region, & Placer County.

Sacramento County:

The median price is $320,000 and is down a few percent from the height of summer, but it’s 10% higher than last year.

The average price per sq ft was $202 last month (down 1% from a few months ago, but 8.5% higher than last year).

There were only 38 short sales and 31 REOs in the county last month.

Sales volume was 5% higher this October compared to October 2015.

It took 3 days longer to sell a house last month compared to the previous month (one year ago it was taking 5 days longer to sell).

Sales volume is up slightly this year compared to last year (1% or so).

FHA sales volume is down 7% this year compared to 2015 (25% of all sales were FHA last month).

Cash sales are down 8.5% this year (they were 12% of all sales last month).

Housing inventory is 12% lower than the same time last year.

The average sales price at $353,000 is down about 1% from the height of summer (but is 9% higher than last year).

Some of my Favorite Graphs this Month:

SACRAMENTO REGIONAL MARKET:

The median price was $357,000 in October. It went up slightly from September but is down 3% from the height of summer (up 9% from last year).

The average price per sq ft was $208 last month. That’s down about 1% from the height of summer and 7% higher than last year.

It took 2 days longer to sell compared to the previous month (but 5 less days compared to October 2015).

Sales volume was 4% higher this October compared to October 2015.

FHA sales volume is down 8% this year compared to last year.

Cash sales were 13.5% of all sales last month (FHA sales were 21%).

Cash sales are down 7% this year compared to last year.

Housing inventory is 14% lower than the same time last year.

REOs were 1.8% and short sales were 2% of all sales last month.

The average sales price was $393,000 in October. It’s down about 3% from the height of summer but 8% higher than last year.

Some of my Favorite Regional Graphs:

PLACER COUNTY:

The median price was $438,000 last month (highest point of year, but take that with a grain of salt).

The average price per sq ft was $213 last month (down very slightly from the height of summer and up 6% higher than last year).

It took 41 days to sell last month (same as previous month but 6 days less than one year ago).

Sales volume was about 3% lower this October compared to October 2015.

FHA sales volume is down 16% this year compared to last year.

Cash sales were 17% of all sales last month (FHA sales were 13%).

Cash sales are down 3.6% this year compared to last year.

Housing inventory is 13% lower than the same time last year.

Both REOs and short sales were each 1% of sales last month.

The average sales price was $481,000 and is 8.5% higher than last year.

Some of my Favorite Placer County Graphs:

DOWNLOAD 71 graphs HERE: Please download all graphs in this post (and more) here as a zip file. Use them for study, for your newsletter, or some on your blog. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim). Thanks.

Questions: Did I miss anything? What impact do you think Trump will have for the real estate market (if any)? What are you seeing out there? I’d love to hear your take.

How did the previous housing crash affect buyers? In other words, how are buyers different today because of what they went through years ago? Without writing a dissertation, let’s consider a few thoughts below. Then for anyone interested, let’s take a deep look at the Sacramento market. Any thoughts?

Three ways the housing crash seems to have impacted buyers:

Getting into Contract: Despite inventory being low, buyers seem to be picky about price. In other words, if the price isn’t right, they won’t make an offer (in Sacramento at least). Sellers haven’t fully embraced this yet, but it’s very real. You’d think buyers would feel desperate and offer on anything since housing inventory is sparse, but it’s simply not the case. There could be many reasons for this, but one of them is buyers are being cautious about what they offer because they don’t want to feel like they are making the mistake of overpaying like they did a decade ago. Of course prices today are much higher than they were just four years ago and buyers are willing to pay these prices. It’s just buyers are generally more cautious about overpaying. Also, keep in mind buyers are much more informed about prices because of Metrolist, Zillow, Redfin, etc…. This means buyers can often sniff out something that’s overpriced.

Staying in Contract: Many real estate agents in Sacramento have been reporting contracts falling out of escrow much more often. It’s like buyers are picky about getting into contract in the first place and then they are picky about staying in contract. I’ve heard some say contracts falling apart is a sign the market is beginning to crash, but there have actually been more sales this year than last year in Sacramento. Thus the truth is more contracts are actually closing regardless of however many are falling out.

Sensitive about Location & Condition: Buyers seem to be exhibiting a sensitivity to adverse locations and properties that are not in pristine condition. In other words, buyers have higher expectations about what they are buying and they aren’t overlooking the true condition of a home or paying top dollar for junk. Lenders and appraisers certainly aren’t overlooking the condition either (or at least they shouldn’t be). Also, consider how HGTV and other networks have exploded in popularity this past decade. I have to think constantly seeing the latest designs on TV (and Pinterest) only helps foster a more finicky buyer when looking for a home.

What do you think? Any further insight? Let’s talk. Please comment below.

—-—–—– And here’s my big monthly market update ———–—–

Two ways to read the BIG POST:

Scan the talking points and graphs quickly.

Grab a cup of coffee and spend time digesting what is here.

DOWNLOAD 79 graphs HERE: Please download all graphs in this post (and more) here as a zip file. Use them for study, for your newsletter, or some on your blog. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim). Thanks.

Quick Market Summary: The market is softening just like we’d expect to see during the fall. Sometimes we talk about real estate in only hyper-positive terms as if values do nothing but increase, but that’s simply not realistic. Almost every year values soften as a part of the normal real estate cycle, and that seems to be what we’re seeing right now. It’s starting to take longer to sell, prices are down a few percent from the summer, housing inventory is up from a few months back, and sales volume is beginning to slough off. Keep in mind one year ago it was taking an average of 6 days longer to sell, which reminds us the fall market this year has been more aggressive so far. Overall single family housing feels flat and the market is very price sensitive, so sellers ought to be very cautious about pricing according to properties that are actually getting into contract in their neighborhood and price range. On a different note the 2-4 unit market has been somewhat subdued for a number of years as values have recovered much more slowly than the single family market, but it seems to be heating up as news of higher rents is spreading to investors. Let’s keep an eye on that and of course keep hoping the economy and wage growth can drive values more than low interest rates and freakishly low housing inventory. Check out specific stats and graphs below for Sacramento County, the Sacramento Region, & Placer County.

Sacramento County:

The median price was $317,000 in September. It dipped 2% from the previous month, but is 9% higher than last year.

The average price per sq ft was $201 last month (down 2% from the previous month, but still 7% higher than last year).

There were only 25 short sales in the county last month.

Sales volume was 3% higher this September compared to September 2015.

It took 4 days longer to sell a house last month compared to the previous month (though one year ago it was taking 6 days longer to sell).

Sales volume is up 7% this year compared to last year.

FHA sales volume is down 7% this year compared to 2015 (keep in mind nearly 26% of all sales were FHA this past quarter).

Cash sales are down 7.6% this year (they were only 13.6% of all sales this past quarter).

Housing inventory is 5% lower than the same time last year.

The average sales price at $346,000 softened by 2% last month (but is 10% higher than last year).

Some of my Favorite Graphs this Month:

SACRAMENTO REGIONAL MARKET:

The median price was $355,000 in September. It’s down less than 1% from the previous month, but is 9% higher than last year.

The average price per sq ft was $207 last month. It went down 1.5% from the previous month, but is 7% higher than last year.

It took 4 days longer to sell compared to the previous month (but 6 less days compared to September 2015).

Sales volume was 3% higher this September compared to September 2015.

FHA sales volume is down 7.5% this year compared to last year.

Cash sales were 16% of all sales last month (FHA sales were 22%).

Cash sales are down 6% this year compared to last year.

Housing inventory is 9% lower than the same time last year.

REOs were 2.5% and short sales were 1.3% of all sales last month.

The average sales price was $393,000 in September. It softened by 1% last month but is 9% higher than last year.

Some of my Favorite Regional Graphs:

PLACER COUNTY:

The median price was $432,000 last month, which is up 11% from last year.

The average price per sq ft was $212 last month. It softened by 1.5% from the past couple months, but is 4.7% higher than last year.

It took 1 day longer to sell compared to the previous month (but 5 less days compared to September 2015).

Sales volume was similar this September compared to September 2015.

FHA sales volume is down 15% this year compared to last year.

Cash sales were nearly 16% of all sales last month (FHA sales were nearly 16% also).

Cash sales are down 1.7% this year compared to last year.

Housing inventory is 16% lower than the same time last year.

REOs were 1.3% and short sales were 1.1% of all sales last month.

The average sales price was $483,000 and is 8.5% higher than last year.

Some of my Favorite Placer County Graphs:

DOWNLOAD 79 graphs HERE: Please download all graphs in this post (and more) here as a zip file. Use them for study, for your newsletter, or some on your blog. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim). Thanks.

Classes I’m teaching in Lake Tahoe: On October 21st I’ll be teaching two classes in Lake Tahoe for an Appraisal Institute Conference. This is an enormous honor and I look forward to mingling with appraisers and sharing ideas. Click here for details.

Question: Did I miss anything? Any other market insight you’d like to add? What are you seeing out there? I’d love to hear your take.

Values are starting to decline. The market is sliding. Price reductions are increasing. This is exactly what we start to hear around August as the market has transitioned from spring to summer. But is the market really crashing? It could be, but sometimes the issue is simple in that we’re not weighing the market in the right context. Today let’s look at a helpful scale analogy and then unpack the Sacramento market in depth (for those interested). Any thoughts?

A Scale Analogy: Imagine being on a diet and stepping on a scale in the morning before breakfast and then again at night after eating all day. What would happen? Well, it’s going to look like you gained some weight during the day because the body is light and empty in the morning and naturally heavier at night after a day of eating. Unless you want to punish yourself with thoughts of weight gain, the key for using a scale would be to weigh yourself every day around the same time so you are comparing the same context each day. Otherwise when comparing one context (morning) with a different context (night), it might look like you gained weight when you might have actually lost some.

The Big Point: In real estate we have to consider what it looks like to weigh the market. Often at this time of year we start hearing things like, “Values are starting to tank”, when in reality the market may simply be softening for the season. The problem is we don’t see the softening though because we’re stepping on the scale at the wrong time of day so to speak. For example, if we compare stats from June to July, it looks like the market is declining in value since stats have sagged. Yet if we step back and weigh the market in context by comparing June/July 2016 data vs June/July 2015 data, we see stats also sagged last year. Bingo! This helps us see it’s normal for the market to soften up at this time of year (of course it could be declining, but that’s a different post). In short, if we want to get better at seeing the market it’s critical to compare the latest month of data with the same month last year. Otherwise it’s very easy to start making market claims when the truth is we just might be misreading the trend. If you want to use bigger chunks of data like quarters, that’s fine too. Just compare the past quarter today with the same time period last year. You can also look at many years of data to get an even better sense of seasonal trends.

—-—–—– And here’s my big monthly market update ———–—–

Two ways to read the BIG POST:

Scan the talking points and graphs quickly.

Grab a cup of coffee and spend time digesting what is here.

DOWNLOAD 62 graphs HERE: Please download all graphs in this post (and more) here as a zip file. Use them for study, for your newsletter, or some on your blog. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim). Thanks.

Slowing Market (Quick Summary): The hot spring season is definitely transitioning to a slower market. What do I mean? It’s taking slightly longer to sell today compared to last month, the median price and average sales price declined from the previous month, inventory saw a 20% increase from June (it’s still really low though), and price reductions have been more common. Yet at the same time the market is actually stronger this year as it was taking 4 days longer to sell last year and price metrics are a good 7-10% higher this year too. Overall the market feels fairly “hot” under $300,000, but there has been notable price resistance at higher price levels. These days well-priced properties are going quickly, but otherwise buyers can smell a high price from a mile away – and they’re not biting. It’s easy to think the market is starting to turn or tank, but it’s normal for the market to soften at this time of year. Unless we begin to see otherwise, right now it looks like we are seeing what seems like the start of a typical seasonal downtrend.

Presidential Election & the Market: We’re hearing lots of talk about how the market is strong because it’s a presidential year, but let’s remember the market is doing what it is doing as a result of years of unfolding trends. The presidential election doesn’t all of a sudden trump (no pun intended) the factors that have been driving the market for years and have caused the market to be where it is today. For context, values in Sacramento were increasing rapidly in 2004, utterly tanking in despair in 2008, recovering in 2012 (due to cash investors and 4% rates), and now the market is figuring out how to be normal after modest value increases this spring. Sure, there could be some impact because it’s a presidential year, but let’s defuse the hype and not overstate it. Take a look at the stats and graphs below and see if you can discern any real difference because this year is a presidential year.

Sacramento County:

The median price is 100% higher than it was in early 2012.

There were only 4 sales under $100K last month (single family detached).

Sales volume has been about the same this year compared to last year.

FHA volume is down about 8% this year compared to 2015.

FHA sales were 26% of all sales last month.

Cash sales were only 12% of all sales last month.

It took an average of 27 days to sell a home last month, which is 2 days more than the previous month (and 4 less days compared to last year).

REOs were only 2% of all sales last month and short sales were 2.7%.

There is only 1.69 months of housing supply in Sacramento County, which is 11% lower than it was last year at the same time.

The median price declined by 2.7% last month and the average sales price also declined, though both are 10% higher than they were last year at the same time.

Some of my Favorite Graphs this Month:

SACRAMENTO REGIONAL MARKET:

The median price is 97% higher than it was in early 2012.

It took 1 day longer to sell last month compared to June (but 4 less days compared to July 2015).

Sales volume is about the same as it was last year at the same time.

Cash sales were 14% of all sales last month.

Cash sales volume is 6% lower this year than last year.

FHA sales were 22% of all sales last month.

FHA sales volume is down nearly 8% this year so far.

There is 1.96 months of housing supply in the region right now, which is just about the same as last year during this time.

The median price, average sales price, and avg price per sq ft all declined last month from June, though they’re all up 7-8% from last year.

REOs were only 2% of all sales last month and short sales were the same.

Some of my Favorite Regional Graphs:

PLACER COUNTY:

Today’s median price is 72% higher than it was in early 2012.

It took 3 more days to sell a house last month than the previous month (but 4 less days than last year at the same time).

Sales volume was down about 11% in July 2016 compared to last July and is down slightly for the year about 3%.

Both FHA sales and cash sales were each 15% of all sales last month.

There is 2.25 months of housing supply in Placer County right now, which is up very slightly from last year at the same time (but up 30% from last month).

The median price increased about 1% from the previous month, but for a better context it’s up 10% from last year at the same time.

The average price per sq ft was $216 last month (was $202 last year at the same time).

The average sales price was $480K last month (up about 11% from last year).

Bank owned sales were only 1% of all sales last month.

Short sales were 0.07% of sales last month.

Some of my Favorite Placer County Graphs:

DOWNLOAD 62 graphs HERE: Please download all graphs in this post (and more) here as a zip file. Use them for study, for your newsletter, or some on your blog. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim). Thanks.

Question: Did I miss anything? Any other market insight you’d like to add? I’d love to hear your take.

Have you ever met someone who looked really good on the outside, but the inside was a different story? That’s sort of like the housing market right now. Sales stats look super attractive, but if we really consider listings and other metrics we begin to see a different story. The market is slowing. Since it’s not always easy to explain that, here are a few analogies to help describe how important it is to look beyond just sales to gauge the temperature of the market. Then for those interested, let’s take a deep look at Sacramento trends. Any thoughts?

Examples to explain the market when it begins to slow:

First Date: A first date is all about putting your best foot forward, and that’s exactly why we usually need more than just one good date to make up our mind about someone (gotta be sure the person is not psycho). The same thing happens with real estate. Shining sales stats are like a first date because they lure us in and make us feel good. But we can’t really judge an entire market just by the sales. We need to consider listings and other metrics too.

Taking the Temperature in the Shade: If you take the temperature in the shade in the summer, you’re going to get a much different reading. The same thing happens in real estate where we can get the wrong temperature of the market if we only focus on sales instead of listings and other factors.

Judging by one Tweet: These days it’s easy to judge a person by one tweet instead of looking at their wider body of work (their life). The same thing happens in real estate when we only look at sales instead of listings and other stats. If our vision is too narrow, we might not see what the market is actually doing.

Pregnancy Test: I asked my author wife for an analogy and she said the market is like a pregnancy test (I wouldn’t ever have thought of that). You can technically be pregnant but an over-the-counter test won’t tell you that for a couple of weeks. Similarly, the market may have changed, but we may not see a price difference in sales for a month or two. But the change is definitely there when we look at listings and other metrics.

Pokemon: I’m just kidding. I won’t go there.

In a small way, I hope this was helpful. It’s very powerful to explain the market in different ways. Any other analogies to share?

—————– For those interested, here is my big market update —————–

Two ways to read the BIG POST:

Scan the talking points and graphs quickly.

Grab a cup of coffee and spend time digesting what is here.

DOWNLOAD 80+ graphs HERE:Please download all graphs in this post (and more) here as a zip file. Use them for study, for your newsletter, or some on your blog. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim). Thanks.

Quick Market Summary: On paper the market has been hot. We’ve seen all the normal stuff like price increases, slightly higher sales volume in 2016, and sparse housing inventory. If you didn’t know, the median price in Sacramento County is 105% higher than it was in 2012 and 16% lower than the peak in 2005. Distressed sales actually reached their lowest level since 2009 last quarter too. Cash sales volume has been hovering at a normal level while FHA sales volume has been declining. Overall the market is still really competitive, but it’s starting to turn. Keep in mind it’s common for real estate to lose some steam around mid-Summer. While the sales stats don’t show it yet, we see a slower market with the sales-to-list price ratio declining last month from the previous month, it took the same amount of average days to sell for the past two months in the region, and there has been a slightly more optimistic tone among real estate professionals about buyers getting into contract. While it felt utterly hopeless to get an offer accepted a few months ago in certain price ranges, it is starting to feel slightly more hopeful based on feedback from agents. Moreover, it seems like there has been growing price resistance lately (particularly at the higher end of the market). The market has been price sensitive all year as buyers are not fooled by absurdly high prices, but the sensitivity seems more heightened right now.

Sacramento County:

FHA volume has been about 24% of the market (it was nearly 27% of the market last year at the same time).

Cash volume is roughly the same as it was last year at the same time (around 16% of the market).

It took an average of 25 days to sell a home last month, which is 2 days less than the previous month (and 5 less days compared to last year).

REOs were only 2.9% of all sales last quarter (lowest level in years).

Sales volume is up very slightly Q2 2016 compared to Q2 2015.

There is only 1.38 months of housing supply in Sacramento County, which is 14% lower than it was last year at the same time.

The median price increased by 3.5% last month.

The median price is 13% higher than the same time last year.

The avg price per sq ft increased by 1.4% last month.

The avg price per sq ft is 9.7% higher than the same time last year.

Some of my Favorite Graphs this Month:

SACRAMENTO REGIONAL MARKET:

It took the same amount of time to sell last month as it did the previous month (though 3 less days to sell this June compared to last June).

Sales volume is up slightly in 2016 compared to 2015.

Cash volume is about the same this year (16% of the market for Q2).

FHA volume is down 7.5% so far this year in the region.

The sales to list price ratio was 98% in the region last month.

There is 1.6 months of housing supply in the region right now, which is 13.5% lower than it was last year at the same time.

The median price increased 3.6% last month from the previous month.

The median price is 11% higher than the same time last year.

The avg price per sq ft increased by nearly 1% last month.

The avg price per sq ft is 8.9% higher than the same time last year.

Some of my Favorite Regional Graphs:

PLACER COUNTY:

It took 4 less days to sell a house last month than the previous month (and 3 less days than last year at the same time).

Sales volume was up about 1% in June 2016 compared to last June and is down slightly for the year (about 2%).

FHA sales were 17% of all sales last month and cash sales were 13% of all sales last month.

There is 1.7 months of housing supply in Placer County right now.

Housing inventory is 8.5% lower than it was last year at the same time.

The median price increased 0.5% from the previous month and is up 7% from last year at the same time.

The average price per sq ft was $212 last month (was $200 last year at the same time).

The average price per sq ft is up 1.4% from the previous month and 6% from last year at the same time.

Bank owned sales were only 1% of all sales last month.

Short sales were 1.9% of sales last month.

Some of my Favorite Placer County Graphs:

DOWNLOAD 80+ graphs HERE:Please download all graphs in this post (and more) here as a zip file. Use them for study, for your newsletter, or some on your blog. See my sharing policy for 5 ways to share (please don’t copy verbatim). Thanks.

Question: Any other market insight you’d like to add? I’d love to hear your take.

Disclaimer

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