As I stated last week... I'm going to continue to publish a weekend 'feature' game (NCAA or NFL) here in this space (as well as a link to the blogspace I'm running now which deals exclusively with NCAA/NFL Football & Fantasy Sports)...

I﻿'m using this game as my SEPTEMBER NCAA PICK OF THE MONTH (5 units)... The Golden Bears are getting a point up north... What I mainly like about this game is a revenge motive... The Huskies have had the Golden Bears number the past two years (but that's when they had Jake Locker in town [who is now a Tennessee Titan])... You need an experienced signal caller to get you through tough match-ups... The Huskies failed that test last week traveling to play an out of conference foe (Nebraska) who they have had on the schedule for a few years now (& defeated in the Poinsettia Bowl last December)...

The thing about that game (Poinsettia Bowl) was that for all intents & purposes, Cal 'should' have been playing there (save for a fluky loss to Washington at home at the end of the season)... The loss dropped them to a 5 win season and made them ineligible for bowl consideration...

Of course I think they fully realize this... & also realize that the Pac 12 is now a 2 division conference... Both teams find themselves in, arguably, the tougher division (with Oregon & Stanford)... Wins will be at a premium & I'll take the Golden Bears in this spot...

CALIFORNIA for (5 units)

---

WEEK 3 - FEATURE GAME - NFL

Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers (4:05 EDT)

Line: Chargers by 14.5

These LATE GAMES (this week) are a thing of beauty if you know anything about sports wagering... I mean... I don't even know how to explain it to any of you people... You'll either know what I'm talking about, OR you'll think I'm an idiot right away... & never read this blog again... Then, someday a few weeks or months from now, when you've lost all your cash on SURE THINGS, you'll be trying to remember the URL to this blogsite...

Let me start by explaining it to you this way... As of the moment of writing this, here's the PUBLIC SUPPORT% (by the public vs. the sportsbooks [who are naturally just taking the 'other side' of what the public wants to book]), on the 9/25/11 LATE GAMES:

San Diego (75%) vs. KC

New York Jets (68%) at Oakland

Baltimore (94%) at St. Louis

Atlanta (93%) at Tampa Bay

Arizona (78%) at Seattle

Green Bay (90%) at Chicago

Pittsburgh (90%) at Indy

YGBFKM!!!... What's perhaps even MORE unusual is the number of LATE GAMES (7) + Monday Night = 8... Which means that half the NFL schedule for Week 3 will NOT be played in the 1:00 ET time slot... If you're a newbie, don't damage your brain cells figuring that one out, just trust me in saying it's an unusual circumstance...

It could mean one of several things (but probably will end up meaning a combination of unfathomable results, which, an EXPERIENCED handicapper can spot a mile away)...

The SIMPLE truth is this... If the NFL plays to 'chalk' this weekend (& publicly supported teams WIN), then there's going to be a bloodbath in Vegas... The MORE SIMPLE truth is... IT AIN'T GONNA HAPPEN (which means that there are going to be a lot of 'locks' that don't payoff for their betting faithful)... The fact that MOST of it occurs within this AFTERNOON SUNDAY scenario is intriguing...

I'm going to thresh it out this way (& there's really no other way to do it in this scenario which is even new to me)... You have to first start with the EARLY GAMES and figure out where the chips fall)... I've already identified HOUSTON, BUFFALO, CLEVELAND, MINNESOTA, & JACKSONVILLE as possible teams that the public has shunned as being 'take the points' candidates... My guess is that at least TWO of those will be right (but that's why I put small units on all)...

You seriously need to look at what happen EARLY before you plunge into the afternoon... If I'm WRONG about most of those early games, then most of these LOCKS in the afternoon ARE GOING DOWN...

My prime candidates (going down - to the pointspread) are: CHARGERS, JETS, FALCONS, & maybe, believe it or not... STEELERS... I really have no clue... But the bottom line is that I want to CAUTION everyone here to perhaps 'keep your powder dry'...

The UNITS that I assign to all of these picks will be determined by the eventual outcome of the early games (& how the support percentages change)... Right now... Knowing nothing... I have to take ALL DOGS in the afternoon...﻿﻿﻿

Last weeks bearish thrusting is being confirmed this week. It's also above the monthly 3LB reversal price. It's above the SMA(55) and approaching the 38.2% retrace (78.76). Running from the EURUSD to DXY may not be the safe play one thinks. Remember the grass is not always greener on the other side.

DXYSpinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held the 61.8% retrace (77.27). Still above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 75.95). Now above the monthly 3LB reversal price.

VIXBullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Held SMA(21). Failing its 0.0% retrace (45.40). Tested and held its 38.2% retrace (33.51). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 25.25). Still on parole from the "extreme fear" but has been located.

GOLDDoji day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held its 61.8% minor retrace (1792.12). Failing SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1891.90). Must have the precious.

Netflix is having a two month hangover. It's back to August 2010 levels. It's below the 61.8% retrace (143.57). It's below the SMA(89) & SMA(55). The low in July 2010 is the next support (95.33). This is more than the change in prices affecting Netflix.

Disclosure/Warning

This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind.The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind.The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed.The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.

Fictional Character Quote of the Day:

I guess it comes down to a simple choice. Get busy living or get busy dying.

- Andy Dufresne

"The Shawshank Redemption"

About this Blog

This Blog's primary focus is on trading based upon technical analysis. It is run by "AmenRa" and "AndyT," quasi-anonymous traders who employ technical analysis to assess market conditions and trading opportunities. AmenRa utilizes 3LB techniques, Moving Averages and Fibonacci sequences. AndyT's analysis relies primarily on "Wave Theory" and Fibonacci sequences. The Comments Section is uncensored and open to the public. Please try and adhere to the "Blogger Policy."