In the annual study “Project SUN”, where it is estimated the scale and development of the illicit cigarette market in the EU, Norway and Switzerland, it is shown that overall, counterfeit and contraband (C&C) posing significant threats, although declined by 8.8%, to 48.3 billion cigarettes in 2016. Nevertheless, it is still accounted for over 9% of total consumption.

It is an undeniable fact that illicit trade is a phenomenon that impacts tobacco manufacturers, governments and the tobacco control community, requiring a coordinated international response.

In the annual study “Project SUN”, where it is estimated the scale and development of the illicit cigarette market in the EU, Norway and Switzerland, it is shown that overall, counterfeit and contraband (C&C) posing significant threats, although declined by 8.8%, to 48.3 billion cigarettes in 2016. Nevertheless, it is still accounted for over 9% of total consumption.

Particularly, counterfeit and contraband products represent a tax loss of up to 10.2 billion euros, making the illicit trade one of the largest major “player” in the cigarette market. According to the report, the highest volume of C&C was identified in France, while only Romania and Austria experienced a gradual increase in 2016.

Ιt is estimated that organized crime groups engaged in the illicit cigarette trade are increasingly diverse in the routes and methods they employ and in the products they manufacture, transport and sell.

Euromonitor International attributes this growth to the political situation and current developments in the region. An example is Israel where it is estimated that tobacco illicit trade today is reaching around 20% and it has doubled over the last few years with alarming signs of increase due to the already high excise of cheap products and roll-your-own category, which acts as a barrier before illicit trade.

The current trend shows that more than 50% of illicit cigarettes are originated from West Bank, while other sources include ex-Soviet Union countries, such as Ukraine, Russia, Moldova and Georgia. The direct repercussion is the significant loss of state revenues.

The dust has a bit settled on Theresa May’s Brexit deal with the EU. It looks like that more people took the chance to read more of it and to compare it, for instance, with a no-deal that no one knows what exactly will mean