The GOP Can Rebound From Record Low Favorability Ratings

October 10, 2013

I'm pretty pessimistic about the odds that Democrats could take back the House next November. But if you're looking for a data-point that makes it clear the shutdown is taking a toll, check this out:

The Republican Party's favorables are at their lowest point since Gallup first began asking the question, according to a poll released this week. Certainly, the GOP would be in quite a bit of trouble if it went into October 2014 with a 28 percent favorability rating.

Or maybe not. After the impeachment of President Clinton, the GOP's favorability rating dropped to just 31 percent. Despite such low numbers, the GOP retained control of the House in the 1998 midterm elections, which occured at the heart of the impeachment proceedings. Democrats only gained 5 seats. And the public had a short memory. The GOP's ratings quickly recovered, although that may have been assisted by a strong presidential candidate who attempted to change the party's brand. Just two years later, George W. Bush outperformed the economic fundamentals and won the presidency. So although the GOP's favorability ratings are bad, it's not clear that they spell doom.