A combination of 200mm fab closures and slowing capacity expansions at existing 300mm fabs is expected to result in a NAND flash capital expenditure decline of 58.9% in 2009. NAND flash capex in 2008 declined 27.7% in 2008, compared to 2007, according to DRAMeXchange. Bit growth will decrease from 132.8% in 2008 to 63.5% Year-on-Year in 2009. In a previous report, DRAMeXchange had expected bit growth of 81% in 2009.

Although the industry is slowing capacity additions at 300mm fabs, the overcapacity situation is expected to last through the first half of 2009. Should measured supply/demand policies hold, improvements in NAND flash prices are expected in the second half of the year, DRAMeXchange said.