At this time of the season, every game carries a life-or-death feel for teams in the NCAA Tournament bubble conversation. They rarely are quite that important—remember, the phrase “body of work” is key—but the tournament selection committee is watching intently.

Here’s what they saw on Monday night.

Cincinnati lost to Louisville but is still in good position to make the NCAA Tournament. (AP Photo)

BAD NIGHT: Cincinnati

Outcome: Lost at Louisville. For nearly 26 minutes, the Bearcats stuck right with a very good—and very hot—Louisville team in the KFC Yum! Center. The Cardinals had won eight of their past nine games, including a road victory at Syracuse on Saturday, but Cincinnati trailed by a single point, 39-38 almost six minutes into the second half.

Then, Luke Hancock drained a 3-pointer with 14:04 left in the game, Chane Behanan threw down a dunk and Russ Smith knocked down a jumper, and the game completely changed. Louisville rattled off a 23-6 run and took total control of the contest. The Bearcats committed 21 turnovers and wound up shooting just 35.3 from the field for the game.

Prognosis: This game doesn’t really change anything. It’s a missed opportunity—the selection committee loves road wins against good teams—but Cincinnati won’t be punished for losing this game. The Bearcats are still relatively secure in their at-large bid, as long as they don’t lose at home to South Florida in the regular-season finale and exit the Big East Tournament early.

BAD NIGHT: Baylor

Outcome:Lost at Texas. First of all, let’s point out that the Longhorns are a different team now that point guard Myck Kabongo is back on the court after his lengthy NCAA-mandated suspension. It’s a bit of bad luck Baylor has to play at Texas now instead of earlier in the conference schedule, when the Longhorns weren’t nearly as formidable. That said, this loss still is crushing to the Bears’ at-large hopes. They’ve now lost five of their last six road games and are just 16-13 against Division I teams this season.

Baylor has an elite player—Pierre Jackson leads the Big 12 in scoring and assists—and Cory Jefferson and Isaiah Austin have had very good seasons. But the Bears’ resume isn’t good enough to earn an at-large bid, even in this, a down year for the bubble.

Prognosis: Not good at all. After this loss, their eighth in the past 11 games, even a victory against Kansas in the regular-season finale on Saturday won’t guarantee anything.