On the question of "one lucky/unlucky performance at Nationals" -- I notice that athletes themselves never talk about luck.

In basketball there is an expression, "ball don't lie."

At the NBA level, the attitude of the players is. if I shoot the ball correctly it will go in. If it rims out, that is prima fascia evidence that I did not shoot it correctly.

Your use of other sports to make your case against perfectly good athletes is more fun than constructive.
Mirai, for example will be skating against the US World Team. If she beats the US Ladies at 4CC would you not consider that as mistake in the hometown selection of the World Team?

Well the USFA is definitely taking a gamble with the two new up and coming juniors. And Jeremy being Jeremy doesn't inspire a safe bet either, but at least at his worst he can make in top 10. But then again, its not fair to the two skaters who did a great skates and rightfully earn the spots to the world.

The question will be will they be able to produce the same performances again at Tokyo and/or will the international judges give them some slacks are mark them fairly. If you are taking consideration, with the three Japanese trio, PChan, Joubert, Amadio and Verners, beating half of them and placing ahead is a tall order. They have to place 6th and 7th place to keep the three spots and its definitely tight and dorable if they go clean. But they going to need help from above skaters to make some mistakes.

I say the ladies have better chance of earning the three spots back. Apart from Miki, Mao, Kim, Kanako and Kostner, all the ladies are pretty much so-so. At least its a good thing that Cizney is getting the PCS mark that she derserved, which at least give her 5-6 points cushions.

Your use of other sports to make your case against perfectly good athletes is more fun than constructive.
Mirai, for example will be skating against the US World Team. If she beats the US Ladies at 4CC would you not consider that as mistake in the hometown selection of the World Team?

A lot can happen I guess. At least she is on the first alternative list, so if Rachael reinjure herself again(not that i'm wishing), Marai can be on the world team. But rightnow both Rachael and Marai are so so and neither hardly give any edges to each other. Rachael no matters how clean she skates, she will be hammered on PCS, and Marai still have issues with consistency and underroateted jumps.

A lot can happen I guess. At least she is on the first alternative list, so if Rachael reinjure herself again(not that i'm wishing), Marai can be on the world team. But rightnow both Rachael and Marai are so so and neither hardly give any edges to each other. Rachael no matters how clean she skates, she will be hammered on PCS, and Marai still have issues with consistency and underroateted jumps.

And if Cizny gets injured, it wont happen? This is all so hypothetical. The rest is just an opinion.

Your use of other sports to make your case against perfectly good athletes is more fun than constructive.
Mirai, for example will be skating against the US World Team. If she beats the US Ladies at 4CC would you not consider that as mistake in the hometown selection of the World Team?

4CC is not a criteria right now it it? I mean, the 4CC in the current year, not the last. Maybe it should be but it isn't. Weeks ago, you were arguing that the the GPS was the best test for a competitor's consistency and should be taken into account. Rachael and Alissa were the the only two U.S. ladies to make the final and Alissa won in a very difficult field of ladies. What would justify the U.S. sending Mirai when she had such a sloppy skate at nationals? They can't decide to sent Mirai because she MIGHT do better than Rachael and Alissa at 4CC. If they want to change the rules to have the medalists skate for it again at 4CC, then fine but right now it's not like that.

Over at the Men's FS thread I saw that you argued that Rachael and Mirai would make the best team. I'm stunned that after Alissa won the GPF and proved it was no fluke by skating even better at nationals that anyone can argue she shouldn't go to worlds.

Well the USFA is definitely taking a gamble with the two new up and coming juniors. And Jeremy being Jeremy doesn't inspire a safe bet either, but at least at his worst he can make in top 10. But then again, its not fair to the two skaters who did a great skates and rightfully earn the spots to the world.

The question will be will they be able to produce the same performances again at Tokyo and/or will the international judges give them some slacks are mark them fairly. If you are taking consideration, with the three Japanese trio, PChan, Joubert, Amadio and Verners, beating half of them and placing ahead is a tall order. They have to place 6th and 7th place to keep the three spots and its definitely tight and dorable if they go clean. But they going to need help from above skaters to make some mistakes.

I'm not even thinking of Bradley, Dornbush and Miner making the 13 to earn 3 spots. I am actually very concerned that they won't make the 28 to earn 2 spots. Bradley's best World's result so far is 15th, and Dornbush and Miner are gigantic question marks. And Jeremy's 5th at Worlds last year may have been a so-so result for him in a middling field, but Ryan finished 18th.

If Bradley even repeats his best result, one of Dornbush or Miner is going to have to get at least 13th to get the 2 spots for 2012. I'm hoping that Ryan can better that result with a good performance for something around 10th, but a lot is going to be riding on Ryan's quads, so say the least.

I'm actually very happy for Ryan, and I think the team is very deserving, but no question, it's a high-risk group.

I'm not even thinking of Bradley, Dornbush and Miner making the 13 to earn 3 spots. I am actually very concerned that they won't make the 28 to earn 2 spots. Bradley's best World's result so far is 15th, and Dornbush and Miner are gigantic question marks. And Jeremy's 5th at Worlds last year may have been a so-so result for him in a middling field, but Ryan finished 18th.

If Bradley even repeats his best result, one of Dornbush or Miner is going to have to get at least 13th to get the 2 spots for 2012. I'm hoping that Ryan can better that result with a good performance for something around 10th, but a lot is going to be riding on Ryan's quads, so say the least.

I'm actually very happy for Ryan, and I think the team is very deserving, but no question, it's a high-risk group.

It's definitely a risk group. I'm still in disbelief that neither Jeremy or Adam made the team. One of them maybe but the meltdown of both is a shock.

Ryan had a broken foot at worlds last year though. So hopefully this year it won't be THAT bad.

I think the team is deserving too but now that you mention losing two spots - it would be interesting of the U.S. revisits the way it does things if that happens. However, I really don't think they'll do that badly.

I'm not even thinking of Bradley, Dornbush and Miner making the 13 to earn 3 spots. I am actually very concerned that they won't make the 28 to earn 2 spots. Bradley's best World's result so far is 15th, and Dornbush and Miner are gigantic question marks. And Jeremy's 5th at Worlds last year may have been a so-so result for him in a middling field, but Ryan finished 18th.

If Bradley even repeats his best result, one of Dornbush or Miner is going to have to get at least 13th to get the 2 spots for 2012. I'm hoping that Ryan can better that result with a good performance for something around 10th, but a lot is going to be riding on Ryan's quads, so say the least.

I'm actually very happy for Ryan, and I think the team is very deserving, but no question, it's a high-risk group.

I agree.

Edit to add: U.S. actually have three direct entries, not two as I previously thought.

I think the team is deserving too but now that you mention losing two spots - it would be interesting of the U.S. revisits the way it does things if that happens. However, I really don't think they'll do that badly.

The men's field is extremely competitive. There's no question it will be a rough road for the Americans.

Also, normally Dornbush and Miner wouldn't be under much pressure at the first worlds, which would be an advantage. But with all these doubts about whether they can keep the spots I wonder if there will be.

This all goes to show how ridiculous it is that every country is limited to sending such a small number of skaters to Worlds/Olympics. There isn't any other sport where a country is limited to sending only 3 people and might even only get to send 2 (or 1!!!), depending on results from the previous season!

Originally Posted by ivy

Very interesting and insightful. Like a spy novel - there always is one more level of institutional skullduggery!

If Bradley nails his jumps, he'll do well. The base values for the executed elements in his SP and FS were 39.40 and 78.64 respectively. Not bad at all. And while his step sequences will not get called as high levels (though still might get slightly positive GOE from the judges, especially in the SP) and his spins will not be well received (to put it politely), he has the potential for some very nice GOE on the jumps. It all comes down to whether he skates clean and does it with a little flair. If he does, his guaranteed low marks for SS and T won't drop him down as much as some are suggesting. You would think based on some of these comments that two great skates from Bradley wouldn't even get him in the top 10.