Friday, September 30, 2011

We’re getting a scary preview of the final weeks of
the 2012 presidential campaign. It’s going to be all about race and
race-baiting.

For anyone who grew up in the South not so long ago
the irony is thick, bitter and ugly. Democratic pols of earlier
generations reserved their fiery rhetoric—of blaming black folks for
faults and misdemeanors large and small—for the last fortnight of the
primary campaign. Then they let fly.

Some of the desperate friends of Barack Obama are playing the race
card already, as the president’s poll numbers continue to crater in
every ethnic and geographic category. The wise men in the White House
avert their eyes from the data, trying not to look at the wreck on the
highway. There’s the hint of impending doom in poll findings among
independents, Jews, Hispanics and even blacks, where the president has
long been untouchable. His approval ratings have fallen dramatically as
the economy continues to tank and evidence mounts that neither the
president nor his wise men have a clue about what to do about it. Doubts
grow, not about the president’s race, to which white voters everywhere
have shown remarkable indifference, but about the president’s
competence.

Even the brief prospect of a black Republican challenger for a black president says something loud and clear.

Mr. Obama was elected three years ago on the wings of
hope and the breath of prayer. He has gone a long way as a salesman
with a wink, easy banter and a good shoeshine. He had no experience in
business and had barely made a mark in either the Illinois legislature
or the U.S. Senate, but he had an ingratiating manner and he could
preach a sermon like nobody since Billy Sunday, Billy Graham or Adam
Clayton Powell. But now a lot of people black and white are
frightened—indeed most people are flat out scared—and the only people
talking about race are Mr. Obama’s friends.

Morgan Freeman, the actor who has a home in the Mississippi Delta
where he has prosperous business partnerships with white folks, thinks
America is as sinister as ever, and then some. He told an interviewer
for CNN that the election of Mr. Obama has made racism worse, not
better, because the Tea Party “is going to do whatever they can to get
this black man outta here.” With that, he lapsed into incoherence.

The president’s slide in popularity, after his election raised such
high hopes, “just shows the weak, dark, underside of America. We’re
supposed to be better than that. We really are. That’s why all those
people were in tears when Obama was elected president. ‘Ah, look at what
we are. Look at how, this is America.’ You know? And then it just sort
of started turning because these people surfaced, like stirring up muddy
water.”

Rep. Emanuel Cleaver of Missouri, who decried Mr. Obama’s compromise
on the borrowing limit as “a sugar-coated Satan sandwich” (you should
get cheese on that, with a side of fries), urges black voters to keep
their complaining in check because “nobody wants to do anything that
would empower the people who hate Obama.” He didn’t identify those
people but we’re entitled to think they’re of a pale persuasion.

The president knows he must find a way to restore the black
enthusiasm of 2008 if he has even a shot at a second term, so he’s
determined to reprise the spirit of the civil rights struggle of the
60’s. “Take off your bedroom slippers,” he told the Congressional Black
Caucus. “Put on your marching shoes. Shake it off. Stop complainin’.
Stop grumblin’. Stop cryin’.” But it’s not clear who they’ll be marching
against.

Finding a boogerman among white folks will be difficult this year.
Cotton Ed Smith, Bull Connor, Herman Talmadge and the bad guys of yore
have been in the graveyard for a long time. Even more improbable than a
black man in the White House—everyone is accustomed to that—is a
Rasmussen Poll released this week suggesting that in the unlikely event
the election were held today Mr. Obama would shade Herman Cain by only
five points. This is a week after he won a straw vote in Florida,
leading all Republican candidates. Mr. Cain, the son of a janitor and a
cleaning lady, is that rare businessman of any color with a fire in his
belly for politics. He sings the music of America and he knows all the
words.

Herman Cain’s chances to win the White House are easy to discount;
the odds say he’s an unlikely star shooting across a troubled sky, soon
to disappear below the far horizon. But even the brief prospect of a
black Republican challenger for a black president says something loud
and clear. What a country.

Democrats Against Democracy

What does Mitt Romney think of this disturbing new trend?

From South Asia to the heartland of Europe and now even to
Wall Street, these protesters share something else: wariness, even
contempt, toward traditional politicians and the democratic political
process they preside over.

They are taking to the streets, in part, because they have little faith in the ballot box.

"Our parents are grateful because they're voting," said
Marta Solanas, 27, referring to older Spaniards' decades spent under the
Franco dictatorship. "We're the first generation to say that voting is
worthless."

The same theme is increasingly heard here in America--not from street
protesters but from traditional politicians, especially Democrats, and
their supporters in the liberal elite media.

Associated Press

Gov. Perdue: Voters are the problem.

"I think we ought to suspend, perhaps,
elections for Congress for two years and just tell them we won't hold it
against them, whatever decisions they make, to just let them help this
country recover. I really hope that someone can agree with me on that,"
North Carolina's Gov. Beverly Perdue said yesterday. "You want people
who don't worry about the next election."

This was reported by the website of the Charlotte News & Observer under
the headline "Perdue Jokes About Suspending Congressional Elections for
Two Years," but according to the story, there was no reason to think
she was kidding: "It's unclear whether Perdue, a Democrat, is
serious--but her tone was level and she asked others to support her on
the idea."

After the uprising of the 17th of June
The Secretary of the Writers' Union
Had leaflets distributed in the Stalinallee
Stating that the people
Had forfeited the confidence of the government
And could win it back only
By redoubled efforts. Would it not be easier
In that case for the government
To dissolve the people
And elect another?

This is a mordant joke at the expense of East Germany's totalitarian
regime, which, with Soviet help, had crushed an uprising in 1953. But
America's circumstances in 2011 are in no way analogous to those of the
Captive Nations during the Cold War. It's true that what Perdue said
cannot really be taken seriously, since there is no prospect of
suspending elections. But if it is humor, it is at the expense of
voters, not politicians. And it seems to us it would more accurately be
described as a wish than a joke.

The wish for less democracy is increasingly heard on the liberal left these days. Peter Orszag, in a much-discussed new essay for The New Republic, explains "why we need less democracy," as the subheadline puts it:

To solve the serious problems facing our country, we need to
minimize the harm from legislative inertia by relying more on automatic
policies and depoliticized commissions for certain policy decisions. In
other words, radical as it sounds, we need to counter the gridlock of
our political institutions by making them a bit less democratic. . . .

Perhaps the most dramatic example of this idea is the
Independent Payment Advisory Board (IPAB), created as part of the recent
health care reform legislation. The IPAB will be an independent panel
of medical experts tasked with devising changes to Medicare's payment
system. In each year that Medicare's per capita costs exceed a certain
threshold, the IPAB is responsible for making proposals to reduce
projected cost growth. The proposals take effect automatically unless
Congress specifically passes legislation blocking them and the president
signs that legislation.

IPAB, colloquially known as "death panels," is the perfect synecdoche
for the authoritarian attitude reflected in Gov. Perdue's musings. It
was part of a law enacted in the face of overwhelming popular
opposition. It gives "experts," selected by politicians but insulated
from democratic accountability, the power of life and death. Barack
Obama and Peter Orszag know what's good for you, and they'll give it to
you if it kills you--literally.

Another fan of government by experts, albeit one who is more silly than sanguinary, is Thomas Friedman, the worst writer in the English language. Friedman, who often expresses admiration for the "enlightened" rulers of Red China, offers this breezy advice:

We know what to do--a Grand Bargain: short-term stimulus to
ease us through this deleveraging process, debt restructuring in the
housing market and long-term budget-cutting to put our fiscal house in
order. . . .

If the president really wants to lead from the front, he
should summon the Democratic and Republican leadership, along with all
12 members of the House-Senate deficit "supercommittee," to join him at
Camp David and tell the world that they are not coming back without a
Grand Bargain--one that offers some short-term jobs stimulus, a credible
long-term debt reduction plan with entitlement cuts and tax reform that
increases revenues.

Putting aside the merits of his simple-minded policy proposal,
Friedman's idea is about as realistic as Perdue's. If the president
issued such a summons, we suspect all the Republicans and not a few of
the Democrats would balk, if not laugh in his face. Even Hendrik Hertzberg
of The New Yorker scoffs at Friedman: "For Obama, a Grand Bargain,
which is to say a Grand Compromise, is not currently an option."

Yet Hetzberg takes the left's authoritarianism a step further toward
totalitarianism. He characterizes the two parties as "a side that is
insane and unwilling to compromise" (Republicans) and "a side that is
sane and willing to compromise" (Democrats). The Soviets and their
puppets in places like East Germany couldn't actually "dissolve the
people and elect another," as Brecht put it. But like Hertzberg, they
could and did label their opponents insane.

Fortunately, in America this is only speech. Hertzberg can call you
insane, but he can't commit you to a mental institution. As he
acknowledges, he can't even stop you from voting.

Why are Democrats suddenly so undemocratic? Probably because they fear that this observation, from Nile Gardiner in a blog post for London's Daily Telegraph, will turn out to be accurate:

The United States is undergoing one of the biggest political
revolutions in its post-war history, and perhaps the most important
since Ronald Reagan, with an emphatic rejection of the idea that
government knows best when it comes to handling key domestic issues,
especially relating to the economy. . . .

Barack Obama could well end up being the last big government
president of the United States, a nation that simply cannot afford the
lavish excesses of an imperious presidency that drains the pay-checks of
hard-working Americans with impunity and reckless abandon. The historic
loss of faith in the federal government under Obama has combined with
growing support across America for a return to the limited government
ideals of the Founding Fathers.

From your keyboard to God's browser, Mr. Gardiner. But of course what comes after Obama will depend on who comes after Obama. and all of this raises a question about Republican presidential front-runner Mitt Romney.

The technocratic approach to government Orszag describes--in which
panels of experts make decisions insulated from democratic politics--has
been central to progressivism in its various iterations for about a
century. It has a parallel in the business world in the culture of
management consulting. That is the culture that produced Mitt Romney.

But the purpose of a business is to make a profit. Sometimes the best
way to do this, especially when the enterprise is faltering and needs
to be turned around, is to concentrate power in the hands of experts.
The purpose of the government, by contrast, is to preserve freedom.

Thus in the political realm, one should always be suspicious of concentrations of power. Is Romney?

These are high times for the Gaffe Patrol. A
“target-rich environment,” as the old-timers in Vietnam called it,
invites every pilot with “unexpended ordnance” under his wings to shoot
down everything he sees moving.

Sometimes the Gaffe Patrol just can’t miss. Rick
Perry was such a juicy target after the Republican debate that even his
missus could have been tempted to take a shot. The governor, clearly
winging it, lapsed into incoherence with a little riff about why
conservatives shouldn’t trust Mitt Romney.

Here’s the transcript (follow the bouncing ball closely): “I think
Americans just don’t know sometimes which Mitt Romney they’re dealing
with. Is it the Mitt Romney that was on the side of against the Second
Amendment before he was for the Second Amendment? Was it before he was
before the social programs from the standpoint of he was for standing up
for Roe v. Wade before he was against Roe v. Wade? Ah, he was for Race
to the Top. He’s for Obamacare, and now he’s against it. I mean, we’ll
wait to see which Mitt Romney we’re really talking to tonight.” My, my.
If Ronald Reagan were alive today he’d be turning over in his grave.

The Gaffe Patrol practices selective compassion. William Howard Taft was a 300-pounder for another time.

The governor says he was tired and off his game, and
that’s not hard to believe. Running for president is a killer. But being
president is even more a killer. Fatigue is never an excuse. A better
explanation is that the governor, accustomed to speaking to friendly
crowds where all he needs is an inventory of cheeky affronts to Barack
Obama, showed up in Orlando with a little buck-and-wing and expected to
shuffle happily off to Buffalo.

Big, friendly crowds are dangerous for any pol, with wild applause
inviting him to wing it, and one zinger leads to another until the Gaffe
Patrol shows up. Crash and burn is never any fun. President Obama
himself stood before a bridge on the Ohio-Kentucky border last week,
trying to make the case that a bridge that doesn’t need repair would
benefit from his jobs bill. That was stretch enough, but he must have
felt a little oratory stirring in his loins (or wherever it is that
oratory stirs), because he was inspired to stretch a little more: “We’re
the country that built the intercontinental railroad.” He soared on,
riding the high winds of fancy, without telling anyone where they could
catch that night train to Paris or London.

He did catch himself at a later outing, when, rousing a friendly
crowd to support his new stimulus scheme, he boasted: “If asking a
billionaire to pay the same tax rate as a Jew, uh, as a janitor, makes
me a warrior for the working class, I wear that as a badge of honor.”
These are innocent slips of the tongue, but it’s just such slips that
give the Gaffe Patrol an irresistible opportunity to strike.

The president, who has cited Abraham Lincoln as the founder of the
Republican Party, once praised a Navy “corpseman,” and talked of taking
his case to “the 57 states,” should be the richest target of all. But
the Gaffe Patrol practices selective compassion. The president gets a
pass because you can’t expect a Harvard man to know much about American
history, having never been taught how or where to find the stars on the
flag.

The Gaffe Patrol has no such pass for Mr. Perry or his confederates.
When “the media members” elect you as the Dumpee of the Day, you must
expect everybody to dump on you. Even some conservatives seem eager to
write off the governor and the rest of the field, ever in search of
someone new even if the new someone is old.

The flavor of the chewing
gum of the day, not likely to survive a night on the bedpost, is Gov.
Chris Christie of New Jersey. He makes a good speech, but he hasn’t had
time to accomplish much beyond the large talk. We’ve elected a black
president and female and Jewish presidents are no doubt on the way, but a
300-pounder? Not fair, perhaps, but not likely. William Howard Taft was
a 300-pounder for another time.

The Republican ticket is likely come from the field as it is, and
Rick Perry has time to do his homework before anyone outside the Beltway
starts paying attention. If the smart Republican money seems to be
going down on Mitt Romney, the Mormon from Massachusetts will need help
from a conservative with a sharper edge, an evangelical Christian to
dilute suspicion of Mr. Romney’s religious origins. John F. Kennedy, a
Massachusetts yankee and a Roman Catholic, went to Texas for a
Protestant to help him in the South. The two men despised each other,
but whatever works.

Herman
Cain is running for president. He’s not a career politician (in fact he
has never held political office). He’s known as a pizza guy, but
there’s a lot more to him. He’s also a computer guy, a banker guy, and a
rocket scientist guy.Here’s his bio:

Bachelor’s degree in Mathematics.

Master’s degree in Computer Science.

Mathematician for the Navy, where he worked on missile ballistics (making him a rocket scientist).

Computer systems analyst for Coca-Cola.

VP
of Corporate Data Systems and Services for Pillsbury (this is the top
of the ladder in the computer world, being in charge of information
systems for a major corporation).

All achieved before reaching the age of 35. Since he reached the top of the information systems world, he changed careers!

Business
Manager. Took charge of Pillsbury’s 400 Burger King restaurants in the
Philadelphia area, which were the company’s poorest performers in the
country. Spent the first nine months learning the business from the
ground up, cooking hamburger and yes, cleaning toilets. After three
years he had turned them into the company’s best performers.

Godfather’s
Pizza CEO. Was asked by Pillsbury to take charge of their Godfather’s
Pizza chain (which was on the verge of bankruptcy). He made it
profitable in 14 months.

In
1988 he led a buyout of the Godfather’s Pizza chain from Pillsbury. He
was now the owner of a restaurant chain. Again he reached the top of the
ladder of another industry.

He
was also chairman of the National Restaurant Association during this
time. This is a group that interacts with government on behalf of the
restaurant industry, and it gave him political experience from the
non-politician side.

Having reached the top of a second industry, he changed careers again!

Adviser
to the Federal Reserve System. Herman Cain went to work for the Federal
Reserve Banking System advising them on how monetary policy changes
would affect American businesses.

Chairman
of the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank. He worked his way up to the
chairmanship of a regional Federal Reserve bank. This is only one step
below the chairmanship of the entire Federal Reserve System (the top
banking position in the country). This position allowed him to see how
monetary policy is made from the inside, and understand the political
forces that impact the monetary system.

After reaching the top of the banking industry, he changed careers for a fourth time!

Writer and public speaker. He then started to write and speak on leadership. His books include Speak as a Leader, CEO of Self, Leadership is Common Sense, and They Think You’re Stupid.

Radio
Host. Around 2007—after a remarkable 40 year career—he started hosting a
radio show on WSB in Atlanta (the largest talk radio station in the
country).

He
did all this starting from rock bottom (his father was a chauffeur and
his mother was a maid). When you add up his accomplishments in his
life—including reaching the top of three unrelated industries:
information systems, business management, and banking—Herman Cain may
have the most impressive resume of anyone that has run for the
presidency in the last half century.

Climate skeptics don't 'deny science'

BILL CLINTON DECLARED LAST WEEK that Americans "look like a joke"
because leading Republican presidential contenders decline to embrace
the agenda of the global-warming alarmists. Presumably he had in mind
Texas Governor Rick Perry, who says that "global warming has been
politicized" and calls claims of a decisive human role in climate change
an unproven theory. "You can't win the nomination of a major political party in the US," fumed the former president, "unless you deny science?"

To which Marc Morano, publisher of the irreverently skeptical website Climate Depot,
promptly replied: "Bill is correct! No Democratic presidential
candidate could get the nomination unless they deny the large role that
natural variability plays in climate."

Ivar Giaever, a Nobel laureate in physics, protests the effort to close the debate over whether climate change is manmade.

In truth, global-warming alarmism is not
science at all -- not in the way that electromagnetic radiation or the
laws of planetary motion or molecular biology is science. Catastrophic
climate change is an interpretation of certain scientific data,
an interpretation based on theories about the causes and effects of
growing concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. It is not
"denying science" to have doubts about the correctness of that
interpretation any more than it is "denying economics" to have doubts
about the efficacy of Kenyesian pump-priming.

You don't have to look far to see that
impeccable scientific standards can go hand-in-hand with skepticism
about global warming. Ivar Giaever, a 1973 Nobel laureate in physics, resigned this month as a Fellow of the American Physical Society (APS) to protest the organization's official position that evidence of manmade climate change is "incontrovertible" and cause for alarm.

"In the APS it is ok to discuss whether the
mass of the proton changes over time and how a multi-universe behaves,"
Giaever writes, incredulous, "but the evidence of global warming is incontrovertible?"

"The claim (how can you measure the average temperature of the whole earth for a whole
year?) is that the temperature has changed from ~288.0 to ~288.8
degrees Kelvin in about 150 years, which (if true) means to me … that
the temperature has been amazingly stable, and both human health and
happiness have definitely improved in this 'warming' period."

By now, only ideologues and political propagandists
insist that all reputable scientists agree on the human responsibility
for climate change. Even within the American Physical Society, the
editor of "Physics and Society" (an APS publication) has acknowledged that "there is a considerable presence within the scientific community of people who do not agree … that anthropogenic CO2 emissions are … primarily responsible for the global warming that has occurred since the Industrial Revolution."

Giaever is only one of many distinguished
scientists who dissent from the alarmist view on climate change. Among
the others are Richard Lindzen of MIT and John Christy of the University
of Alabama at Huntsville, both noted climatologists; the eminent
physicist Freeman Dyson of Princeton's Institute for Advanced Study; and
S. Fred Singer, professor emeritus of environmental science at the
University of Virginia. Within the population of weather experts best
known to the public -- broadcast meteorologists -- The New York Times reported last year that skepticism of the prevailing anthropogenic global-warming theory "appears to be widespread."

Because there is only one
Earth, researchers have no way to reliably distinguish natural climate
change from manmade effects. "We cannot put the Earth in a laboratory
and carry out experiments on it," says climatologist Roy Spencer.

Such skepticism is not "anti-science."
Everything in science is subject to challenge; innumerable facts about
the natural world have been discovered only by poking holes in
once-prevailing theories. And if that is true generally, how much more
so is it true when it comes to something as vast and complex as climate
change? Researchers still have no way "to reliably discriminate between
manmade warming and natural warming processes," climate scientist Roy Spencer has written.
"We cannot put the Earth in a laboratory and carry out experiments on
it. There is only one global warming experiment, and we are all
participating in it right now."

Someday the workings of climate change may
be as well understood as plate tectonics or photosynthesis. Until then,
different theories will compete, assumptions will be fought over, and
scientific findings will be overstated by people with political or
social agendas. We'll know that the science really is settled when the battles have come to an end.

Nobel-winning economist Robert Lucas on the
high cost of the welfare state, why he voted for Barack Obama, and how
Milton Friedman changed his life.

Let's face it, the
"Chicago School" of economics—the one with all the Nobel Prizes, the one
associated with Milton Friedman, the one known for its trust of markets
and skepticism about government—has taken a drubbing in certain
quarters since the subprime crisis.

Sure, the critique depends on
misinterpreting what the word "efficient" means, as in the "efficient
markets hypothesis." Never mind. The Chicago school ought to be roaring
back today on another of its great contributions, "rational
expectations," which does so much to illuminate why government policy is
failing to stimulate the economy back to life.

Robert E. Lucas Jr., 74, didn't invent
the idea or coin the term, but he did more than anyone to explore its
ramifications for our model of the economy. Rational expectations is the
idea that people look ahead and use their smarts to try to anticipate
conditions in the future.

Duh, you say? When Mr. Lucas finally
won the Nobel Prize in 1995, it was the economics profession that said
duh. By then, nobody figured more prominently on the short list for the
profession's ultimate honor. As Harvard economist Greg Mankiw later put
it in the New York Times, "In academic circles, the most influential
macroeconomist of the last quarter of the 20th century was Robert Lucas,
of the University of Chicago."

Mr. Lucas is visiting NYU for a few
days in early September to teach a mini-course, so I dash over to pick
his brain. He obligingly tilts his computer screen toward me. Two things
are on his mind and they're connected. One is the failure of the
European and Japanese economies, after their brisk growth in the early
postwar years, to catch up with the U.S. in per capita gross domestic
product. The GDP gap, which once seemed destined to close, mysteriously
stopped narrowing after about 1970.

The other issue on his mind is our own stumbling recovery from the 2008 recession.For the best explanation of what
happened in Europe and Japan, he points to research by fellow Nobelist
Ed Prescott. In Europe, governments typically commandeer 50% of GDP. The
burden to pay for all this largess falls on workers in the form of high
marginal tax rates, and in particular on married women who might
otherwise think of going to work as second earners in their households.
"The welfare state is so expensive, it just breaks the link between work
effort and what you get out of it, your living standard," says Mr.
Lucas. "And it's really hurting them."

Terry Shoffner

Turning
to the U.S., he says, "A healthy economy that falls into recession has
higher than average growth for a while and gets back to the old trend
line. We haven't done that. I have plenty of suspicions but little
evidence. I think people are concerned about high tax rates, about
trying to stick business corporations with the failure of ObamaCare,
which is going to emerge, the fact that it's not going to add up. But
none of this has happened yet. You can't look at evidence. The taxes
haven't really been raised yet."

By now, the Krugmanites are having
aneurysms. Our stunted recovery, they insist, is due to government's
failure to borrow and spend enough to soak up idle capacity as
households and businesses "deleverage." In a Keynesian world, when
government gooses demand with a burst of deficit spending, the stick
figures are supposed to get busy. Businesses are supposed to hire more
and invest more. Consumers are supposed to consume more.

But what if the stick figures don't
respond as the model prescribes? What if businesses react to what they
see as a temporary and artificial burst in demand by working their
existing workers and equipment harder—or by raising prices? What if
businesses and consumers respond to a public-sector borrowing binge by
becoming fearful about the financial stability of government itself?
What if they run out and join the tea party—the tea party being a
real-world manifestation of consumers and employers not behaving in the
presence of stimulus the way the Keynesian model says they should?

Mr. Lucas and colleagues in the early
1960s were not trying to undermine the conventional prescriptions when
they began to think about how the public might respond—possibly in
inconvenient ways—to signals about government intentions. As he recalls
it, they were just trying to make the models work. "You have somebody
making a decision between the present and the future. You get a college
degree and it's going to pay off in higher earnings later. You make an
investment and it's going to pay off later. Ok, you can't do that
without this guy taking a position on what kind of future he's going to
be living in."

'If you're going to write down a
mathematical model, you have to address that issue. Where are you
supposed to get these expectations? If you just make them up, then you
can get any result you want."The solution, which seems obvious, is
to assume that people use the information at hand to judge how tomorrow
might be similar or different from today. But let's be precise, not
falling into the gap between "word processor people" and "spreadsheet
people," as Mr. Lucas puts it. Nothing is assumed: Data are
interrogated to see how changes in tax rates and other variables
actually influence decisions to work, save and invest.

Mr. Lucas is quick to credit the late
John Muth, who would later become a colleague for a while at Carnegie
Mellon, with inventing "rational expectations." He also cites Milton
Friedman, with whom Mr. Lucas took a first-year graduate course.

"He was just an incredibly inspiring
teacher. He really was a life-changing experience." Friedman, he
recalls, was a skeptic of the Phillips curve—the Keynesian idea that
when businesses see prices rising, they assume demand for their products
is rising and hire more workers—even if the real reason for higher
prices is inflation."Milton brought this [Phillips curve]
up in class and said it's gotta be wrong. But he wasn't clear on why he
thought it was wrong." In his paper for Friedman's class, Mr. Lucas
remembers reaching for a very rudimentary notion of expectations to try
to explain why the curve could not operate as predicted.

Growing up in the Seattle area, Mr.
Lucas recalls a road trip he took as a youngster that terminated in
Chicago, a city with two baseball teams! Chicago, in his mind, became
"the big city," a gateway to a wider world. That, and a scholarship, is
how he would end up spending most of his career at the University of
Chicago.

We are sitting in an inauspicious
guest office at NYU. A late summer sprinkle dampens the city. Mr. Lucas
describes his parents as intelligent, reading people, neither of whom
finished college—he suspects the Great Depression had something to do
with it. "They got into left-wing politics in the '30s, not really to do
anything about it, but to talk about. That was our background—me and my
siblings—relative to our neighbors and relatives, who were all
Republicans." In a community not noted for its diversity, his parents
were especially committed to civil rights, his mother giving talks on
the subject.

I ask about a report that he voted for
Barack Obama in 2008, supposedly only the second time he had voted for a
Democrat for president. "Yeah, I did. My parents are dead for a long
time, but my sister says, 'You have to vote for Obama, for what it would
have meant for Mom and Dad.' I felt that too. It's a huge thing. This
[history of racism] has been the worst blot on this country. All of a
sudden this charming, intelligent guy just blows it away. It was great."

Related Video

Steve Moore and Mary O'Grady discuss the week's economic news.

A
complementary consideration was John McCain's inability to say anything
cogent about the financial crisis then engulfing the nation. "He didn't
have a clue about the economy. I just assumed the guy [Obama] could do
it. I thought he was going to be more Clinton-like in his economics and
politics. I was caught by surprise by how far left the guy is and how
much he's hung onto it and, I would say, at considerable cost to his own
standing."

Refreshing, even bracing, is Mr.
Lucas's skepticism about the "deleveraging" story as the sum of all our
economic woes. "If people start building a lot of high-rises in Chicago
or any place and nobody is buying the units, obviously you're going to
shut down the construction industry for a while. If you've overbuilt
something, that's not the problem, that's the solution in a way. It's
too bad but it's not a make-or-break issue, the housing bubble."

Instead, the shock came because
complex mortgage-related securities minted by Wall Street and "certified
as safe" by rating agencies had become "part of the effective liquidity
supply of the system," he says. "All of a sudden, a whole bunch of this
stuff turns out to be crap. It is the financial aspect that was
instrumental in the meltdown of '08. I don't think housing alone, if it
weren't for these tranches and the role they played in the liquidity
system," would have been a debilitating blow to the economy.

Mr. Lucas believes Ben Bernanke acted
properly to prop up the system. He doesn't even find fault with Mr.
Obama's first stimulus plan. "If you think Bernanke did a great job
tossing out a trillion dollars, why is it a bad idea for the executive
to toss out a trillion dollars? It's not an inappropriate thing in a
recession to push money out there and trying to keep spending from
falling too much, and we did that."

But that was then. In the U.S. at
least, the liquidity problems that manifested themselves in 2008 have
long since been addressed. To repeat the exercise now with temporary tax
and spending gimmicks is to produce the opposite of the desired effect
in consumers and business owners, who by now are back to taking a longer
view. Says Mr. Lucas:

"The president keeps
focusing on transitory things. He grudgingly says, 'OK, we'll keep the
Bush tax cuts on for a couple years.' That's just the wrong thing to
say. What I care about is what's the tax rate going to be when my
project begins to bear fruit?"

Mr. Lucas pulls up a bit when I ask
him what specific advice he'd give President Obama (this is before Mr.
Obama's two back-to-back speeches, one promising temporary tax cuts and
the other permanent tax hikes, which mysteriously fail to levitate the
economy). Unlike many of his colleagues, Mr. Lucas has not spent stints
in Washington advising politicians, or on Wall Street cashing in on his
Nobel laureate reputation. "No, that doesn't interest me at all," he
says. "Now I've taken a salary cut. I don't go to faculty meetings. I
don't teach undergraduates. I just write papers. It's great. I feel
lucky about this."

Still, an answer comes. Mr. Lucas
launches into a brisk dissertation on the work of colleagues—Martin
Feldstein, Michael Boskin, others—whom he credits with disabusing him
and fellow economists of a youthful assumption that taxes have little
effect on the overall amount of capital in society. A lesson for Mr.
Obama might be: If you want to stimulate growth in investment,
productivity and income, cut taxes on capital.

Alas, don't look for this idea to feature in the next Obama speech on the economy, due any minute now.

Perry Is Right: There Is a Texas Model for Fixing Social Security

Public employees in three Texas counties have benefited from an 'Alternate Plan' for 30 years.

To highlight the problems facing Social Security, Texas Gov. and
Republican presidential hopeful Rick Perry is pointing to three Texas
counties that decades ago opted out of Social Security by creating
personal retirement accounts. Now, 30 years on, county workers in those
three jurisdictions retire with more money and have better death and
disability supplemental benefits. And those three counties—unlike almost
all others in the United States—face no long-term unfunded pension
liabilities.

Since 1981 and 1982, workers in Galveston, Matagorda and Brazoria
Counties have seen their retirement savings grow every year, even during
the Great Recession. The so-called Alternate Plan of these three
counties doesn't follow the traditional defined-benefit or
defined-contribution model. Employee and employer contributions are
actively managed by a financial planner—in this case, First Financial
Benefits, Inc., of Houston, which originated the plan in 1980 and has
managed it since its adoption. I call it a "banking model."

As with Social Security, employees contribute 6.2% of their income,
with the county matching the contribution (or, as in Galveston,
providing a slightly larger share). Once the county makes its
contribution, its financial obligation is done—that's why there are no
long-term unfunded liabilities.

The contributions are pooled, like bank
deposits, and top-rated financial institutions bid on the money. Those
institutions guarantee an interest rate that won't go below a base level
and goes higher when the market does well. Over the last decade, the
accounts have earned between 3.75% and 5.75% every year, with the
average around 5%. The 1990s often saw even higher interest rates, of
6.5%-7%. When the market goes up, employees make more—and when the
market goes down, employees still make something.

But not all money goes into employees' retirement accounts. When
financial planner Rick Gornto devised the Alternate Plan in 1980, he
wanted it to be a complete substitute for Social Security. And Social
Security isn't just a retirement fund: It's also social insurance that
provides a death benefit ($255), survivors' insurance, and a disability
benefit.

Part of the employer contribution in the Alternate Plan goes toward a
term life insurance policy that pays four times the employee's salary
tax-free, up to a maximum of $215,000. That's nearly 850 times Social
Security's death benefit.

If a worker participating in Social Security dies before retirement,
he loses his contribution (though part of that money might go to
surviving children or a spouse who didn't work). But a worker in the
Alternate Plan owns his account, so the entire account belongs to his
estate. There is also a disability benefit that pays immediately upon
injury, rather than waiting six months plus other restrictions, as under
Social Security.

Those who retire under the Texas
counties' Alternate Plan do much better than those on Social Security.
According to First Financial's calculations, based on 40 years of
contributions:

• A lower-middle income worker making about $26,000 at retirement
would get about $1,007 a month under Social Security, but $1,826 under
the Alternate Plan.

• A middle-income worker making $51,200 would get about $1,540 monthly from Social Security, but $3,600 from the banking model.

• And a high-income worker who maxed out on his Social Security
contribution every year would receive about $2,500 a month from Social
Security versus $5,000 to $6,000 a month from the Alternate Plan.

The Alternate Plan has demonstrated over 30 years that personal
retirement accounts work, with many retirees making more than twice what
they would under Social Security. As Galveston County Judge Mark Henry
says, "The plan works great. Anyone who spends a few minutes
understanding the plan becomes a huge proponent." Judge Henry says that
out of 1,350 county employees, only five have chosen not to participate.

The Alternate Plan could be adopted today by the six million public
employees in the U.S.—roughly 25% of the total—who are part of state and
local government retirement plans that are outside of Social Security
(and are facing serious unfunded liability problems). Unfortunately this
option is available only to those six million public employees, since
in 1983 Congress barred all others from leaving Social Security.

If Congress overrides this provision, however, the Alternate Plan
could be a model for reforming Social Security nationally. After all, it
provides all the social-insurance benefits of Social Security while
avoiding the unfunded liabilities that are crippling the program and the
economy.

If the presidential candidates, including President Obama, stop
bickering about who wants to "save" or "destroy" Social Security and
begin debating reform constructively, examining the Alternate Plan would
be a good place to start.

Mr. Matthews is a resident scholar with the Institute for Policy Innovation in Dallas.

Friday, September 23, 2011

Repubican candidates Romney, Bachman and members of the Tea Party movement have roasted Texas and Governor Perry for the practice in Texas of allowing the children of illegal immigrants who have attended three years of high school in Texas and who commit to becoming US citizens to enjoy the same tuition rates (not subsidies) at Texas public institutions of higher learning that legal Texas residents pay. But the facts are that the practice is paying off in big dividends for Texas and the United States. Here is an article from the San Antonio paper explaining:

Rosendo Ticas grabbed only a half-hour's sleep Wednesday morning after a late shift working as an airline mechanic. He was too excited to sleep anyway, knowing he was finally taking the oath of U.S. citizenship, a privilege he's been seeking since he arrived in Houston from war-torn El Salvador at age 14.

Ticas first requested political asylum in 1986, but possessed enough determination to survive bureaucratic limbo for a quarter-century. Speaking by telephone Thursday, his voice was triumphant. He has a terrific job with Continental Airlines. He owns his own home and a rent house. He registered to vote after the ceremony.

“I feel great,” he said.

His journey has been long and bumpy, but there have been transcendent turning points. Take, for example, the day Ticas sought the help of then-state Rep. Rick Noriega when he couldn't afford the tuition charged international students at Houston Community College.

That meeting, in 2000, set into motion a landmark public policy that Gov. Rick Perry defended in Monday night's Republican presidential debate. The so-called Texas DREAM Act, which Perry signed in 2001, gives in-state college tuition to undocumented students if they have spent at least three years in a Texas high school and intend to pursue citizenship.

Perry stalwartly defended the law, which he framed as a states' rights issue: “If you've been in the state of Texas for three years, and are working toward citizenship, you pay in-state tuition. It doesn't matter what the sound of your last name is. That's the American way.”

As boos welled up from the uber-conservative tea party audience, Perry stood firm. The policy was working well in Texas by encouraging children brought to the U.S. by their parents to become “contributing members of our society, rather than be on the dole.”

He's right, and Ticas is Exhibit A.

After attending high school in Houston, Ticas started a lawn-mowing business, but quickly decided he wanted more. Houston Community College offered a path to an aviation mechanic's license, but he couldn't afford international tuition rates. So Ticas called Noriega, who conducted a survey in his Houston district and discovered “there were hundreds of Rosendo Ticases out there” — smart kids, brought illegally into the U.S., who wanted an education that had been priced out of reach.

“It was a no-brainer,” Noriega now says of HB 1403, which he introduced in the Legislature in 2001.

“We pulled together as a state and spoke with a loud voice for a public policy that has reaped incredible benefits to our state.” With the backing of powerful business groups, the proposal passed “with about two dissenting votes.”

State officials say that in 2010, 16,476 students took advantage of HB 1403, about 12,000 at the community college level. The law has withstood court challenges, and academic studies tracking students in its early years have demonstrated the tuition break encourages college enrollment — and graduation.

Rice University professor Steve Murdock, who has served as both Texas state demographer and head of the U.S. Census Bureau, has a message for those concerned about the cost of providing education and other services to undocumented workers: “Education pays. You see that very clearly in any data. If they are better educated they will make more money. If people have more money, they spend more money. They generate more sales tax. They generate more expenditures for the private sector.”
Ticas proudly mentioned he took his oath Sept. 14 — the anniversary of the day Francis Scott Key penned “The Star-Spangled Banner” after witnessing the British bombardment of Fort McHenry in 1812.

Thursday, September 22, 2011

Obituary
printed in the London
Times - Interesting and sadly rather
true.

Today
we mourn the
passing of a
beloved old
friend,Common
Sense,
who has been
with us for
many years. No
one knows for
sure how old
he was, since
his birth
records were
long ago lost
in
bureaucratic
red tape. He
will be
remembered as
having
cultivated
such valuable
lessons as:
- Knowing when
to come in out
of the rain;
- Why the
early bird
gets the worm;
- Life isn't
always fair;
- and maybe it
was my fault.

Common Senselived
by simple,
sound
financial
policies
(don't spend
more than you
can earn) and
reliable
strategies
(adults, not
children, are
in charge).

His health
began to
deteriorate
rapidly when
well-intentioned
but
overbearing
regulations
were set in
place. Reports
of a
6-year-old boy
charged with
sexual
harassment for
kissing a
classmate;
teens
suspended from
school for
using
mouthwash
after lunch;
and a teacher
fired for
reprimanding
an unruly
student, only
worsened his
condition.

Common Senselost
ground when
parents
attacked
teachers for
doing the job
that they
themselves had
failed to do
in
disciplining
their unruly
children.

It declined
even further
when schools
were required
to get
parental
consent to
administer sun
lotion or an
aspirin to a
student; but
could not
inform parents
when a student
became
pregnant and
wanted to have
an abortion.

Common Senselost
the will to
live as the
churches
became
businesses;
and criminals
received
better
treatment than
their victims.

Common Sensetook
a beating when
you couldn't
defend
yourself from
a burglar in
your own home
and the
burglar could
sue you for
assault.

Common Sensefinally
gave up the
will to live,
after a woman
failed to
realize that a
steaming cup
of coffee was
hot. She
spilled a
little in her
lap and was
promptly
awarded a huge
settlement.

Common Sensewas
preceded in
death, by his
parents, Truth
and Trust, by
his wife,
Discretion, by
his daughter,
Responsibility,
and by his
son, Reason.

He is survived
by his 4
stepbrothers;
I Know My
Rights
I Want It Now
Someone Else
Is To Blame
I'm A Victim

This Blog had some critical comments to make about Governor Perry's Executive Order mandating the innoculation Texas school girls with the Gardasil vaccine at the time he issued his EO. Now that a fully detailed explanation of that EO and the controversy surrounding it has be made available, I am happy to post it here:

Rick
Perry’s detractors are doing their best to keep this issue alive, even
though most of the related accusations have been proven false.

While it is certainly appropriate that some will downgrade Perry because of his Executive Order (EO) mandating
that the HPV vaccine be administered to Texas school girls, Perry’s EO
was overridden by the Texas legislature and never went into effect.
Although he has admitted his lapse of judgment, he did it, it was wrong,
and now, as a presidential candidate, he’s taking the heat for it.

But,
some media portrayals of the particulars surrounding Perry’s actions
have been either completely false or misleading. That is the reason for
this document. Voters need to know the truth about the influence by his
former chief of staff (later a lobbyist for Merck), about Perry getting a
$30,000 contribution from Merck (to “buy” his endorsement), and the
dangers of the vaccine itself.

Please read on and when you feel the need, click on any of the numerous links to access supporting sources.

1. About Gardasil

The Gardasil vaccine is produced by Merck & Co., Inc. It is called a quadrivalent vaccine because it protects against four HPV types: 6, 11, 16, and 18, and is thought to prevent cervical cancer caused by the Human Papilloma Virus (HPV). Gardasil is given through a series of three intra-muscular (IM) injections over a 6-month period.

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA)
approved Gardasil for use in females for the prevention of cervical
cancer, and some vulvar and vaginal cancers caused by HPV types 16 and
18. Gardasil is also approved for the prevention of genital warts caused
by HPV types 6 and 11. Merck announced FDA approval of the drug on June
6, 2006.

There is a second HPV vaccine, Cervarix, produced by GlaxoSmithKline
(GSK) which competes with Gardasil when considering options in the
prevention of cervical cancer. To be fully informed, you must be aware
that Merck had a competitor (in GlaxoSmithKline) fighting for a similar
stake; inoculating school girls against cervical cancer.

The Cervarix
vaccine is called a bivalent vaccine because it targets two HPV types:
16 and 18. This vaccine is also given in three doses over a 6-month
period. The FDA has approved Cervarix for use in females ages 10 to 25
for the prevention of cervical cancer caused by HPV types 16 and 18.
Cervarix is not approved for the HPV types 6 and 11 that are covered by
Gardasil.

It is important to note that the technology was not developed by Merck or GSK, both Gardasil and Cervarix are based on technology developed by National Cancer Institute
(NCI) scientists. NCI licensed the technology to the two pharmaceutical
companies (Merck and GSK) to develop HPV vaccines for widespread
distribution.

Back to Gardasil.

Gardasil
went under evaluation in four placebo-controlled, double-blind,
randomized clinical studies. The studies reviewed and documented the
results from 20,464 women ages 16 to 26 exposed to the drug. Study information source: from the ACIP meeting minutes. A link is provided later in this document.

Study participants were then followed for up to five years. In one extensive clinical study performed prior to FDA licensing, the vaccine was 100 percent effective, a virtually unprecedented result. Another study appearing in The New England Journal of Medicine in
2007 found that Gardasil was again nearly 100 percent effective in
preventing precancerous cervical lesions caused by the strain that
Gardasil protects against.

Gardasil’s effectiveness increased when given to girls and young women before they become sexually active.
Gardasil was found to be extremely effective in preventing several of
the strains of HPV known to cause cervical cancer (types 16 and 18) and
genital warts (types 6 and 11). Cervical cancer is the second leading
cancer killer of women worldwide. In the United States, nearly 10,000 women are diagnosed with cervical cancer each year and 3,700 women die.

Gardasil is administered in three 0.5
milliliter intra-muscular injections over six months. The second
injection is two months after the first, and the third injection is four
months after the second shot. Each injection costs $120, bringing the
total cost for immunization to $360 per person.

In June 2006, The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) recommended administering the vaccine to girls between 11 and 12 years of age.

Who/what is ACIP? The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) consists of 15 experts in fields associated with immunization. These experts have been selected by the Secretary of the U. S. Department of Health and Human Services to provide advice and guidance to the Secretary and the Assistant Secretary for Health, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on the control of vaccine-preventable diseases.

2. Perry’s Executive Order

As
a result of the ACIP recommendation on HPV vaccination, numerous state
legislatures began introducing legislation focusing on this emerging
public health issue. On November 14, 2006 Representative Jessica Farrar
(D-Houston) filed HB 215 in the Texas House mandating the HPV vaccine be administered to girls “at an appropriate age” as a requirement to enroll in school. Bill HB 215 was first read on January 30, 2007 and sent to the Public Health Committee that same day.

Senator
Leticia Van de Putte (D-San Antonio) who sat on the Senate Committees
on Education, State Affairs, and Business and Commerce also filed
identical companion legislation, SB 110, the same day in the Senate.

But
the legislation ran into trouble in the House. After working for months
to build support for the bill, Representative Farrar and Governor Perry
were informed that the bill would not be read in committee. That meant
that it was not likely to pass the Texas House.

Three
days later, on February 2nd, Governor Perry issued an Executive Order
(EO) mandating the vaccine. The EO came as a surprise to the legislators
and the public alike.

And that’s where the plot thickens.

Governor Perry’s Executive Order (RP#65, February 2, 2007) followed the wording of the original House bill and mandated that all Texas girls be vaccinated prior to their admission to the sixth grade. Here’s the press release issued by the governor’s office announcing his action. With his EO, Texas became the first state to mandate the vaccination.

The
decision was not well received by the Governor’s conservative base as
it dealt with the issue of sexual health. Since the vaccination protects
against sexually transmitted infection (STI), religious conservatives
argued that mandating it could promote pre-marital sexual relations
among young girls. Parents’ groups were concerned that the decision
interfered with parental discretion.

This is one of the three major concerns that critics have relating to Perry’s Gardasil issue: mandating the vaccination by EO, bypassing the legislature. Even though parents were allowed to opt out of the mandate by filling out an affidavit, both the legislature and conservatives were up in arms.

Two days after signing the executive order, and in response to the wave of opposition, Governor Perry issued this statement, “Providing
the HPV vaccine doesn’t promote sexual promiscuity anymore than
providing the Hepatitis B vaccine promotes drug use. If the medical
community developed a vaccine for lung cancer, would the same critics
oppose it claiming it would encourage smoking?”

Perry was rebuked by both houses of the Texas legislature (for example: House Bill 1098, summary here) which nullified his EO by removing the requirement for a student to be vaccinated for HPV in order to enroll.

Sensing
the wave of torches and pitchforks to come, Perry did not sign the law
nor did he veto the overriding legislation. He subsequently rescinded
RP#65 with another EO (RP#74)and the mandate issue is now dead in Texas.

Perry
maintains that the justification for his executive order making the shot
mandatory was twofold: 1.) that the vaccine offered a chance to save
lives that might have otherwise been taken away by cervical cancer and,
2.) that insurance companies wouldn’t cover the $360 cost of the vaccine
($120 for each of a 3-shot regimen) when it was simply an optional
recommended vaccine. That put it out of the reach for most
low-income Texans. Both justifications are, taken alone, valid reasons for Texas to promote Gardasil vaccinations for young women.

When
Perry mandated Gardasil, it was expected to become part of a
school-related vaccine package which would be covered by insurance for
simply the cost of a co-pay.

Perry
has since confessed that his EO was an error in judgment and has
admitted his mistake. During a speech in August 2011, when a voter in
New Hampshire confronted Perry on the Gardasil issue, here’s what he
said: “I signed an executive order that
allowed for an opt-out, but the fact of the matter is I didn’t do my
research well enough to understand that we needed to have a substantial
conversation with our citizenry,” he said. “I hate cancer. Let me tell you, as a son who has a mother and father who are both cancer survivors.”

Perry said he’d invested government resources in cancer cures, adding, “I
hate cancer. And this HPV, we were seeing young ladies die at the early
age. What we should have done was a program that frankly should have
allowed them to opt in or some type of program like that, but here’s
what I learned — when you get too far out in front of the parade, they
will let you know. And that’s exactly what our legislature did.”

While
some may disagree with Perry’s methods, many in the medical field still
support a mandate and believe that with education on the issue, more
people will see the three-shot vaccine's benefits.

In effect, Perry was reprimanded
by the overriding legislation and by the reaction of the public. He
says that he recognizes his mistake and has learned from it. You be the
judge.

3. Merck’s lobbyist (Perry’s former top aide)

Another
of the concerns that critics raise is related to Perry’s former chief of
staff, Mike Toomey, being a lobbyist for Merck at the time of the EO.

For
three decades, Toomey was an Austin, Texas fixture, having been a
three-term state representative, he was also chief of staff to Governor
Bill Clements (1989-1990) and later to Perry (Nov 2002 – Sept 2004); he
was a deeply connected Republican lobbyist. He continued to have a
personal relationship with Governor Perry after resigning as chief of
staff.

When Perry signed the Gardasil executive order, Toomey was a lobbyist for Merck, the vaccine’s manufacturer, and he was suspected of having undue influence on Perry on behalf of Merck’s drug. Opponents cried foul; in response, the governor’s office maintained that Toomey’s input played no part in the decision.

Did
Toomey lobby the governor on the Gardasil issue? No doubt, that’s what a
lobbyist does. Would he have had the governor’s ear? Again, no doubt.
They had a close working relationship for several years. Would Perry
simply do a “favor” for his friend? That is doubtful unless Perry was already convinced that the vaccine was the right thing to do.

Regardless of Toomey’s level of persuasion, it is more likely that another person did influence his decision (and carried a lot more clout), Perry’s own in-house consultant, his wife Anita.

The
First Lady was very aware of the Gardasil issue and we can assume that
Perry would have relied on her education (Masters of Science in Nursing
from the University of Texas),
and her experience, having worked in the nursing profession for more
than 17 years. She worked in surgery, pediatrics, intensive care,
administration, teaching and as a consultant.

That Anita was intimately involved in the issue is evidenced by the fact that she was the keynote speaker at a Women in Government (WIG) conference on cervical cancer prevention and elimination. Here are her conference remarkswhich clearly reflect her activism relating to cervical cancer and HPV. WIG is a bi-partisan, non-profit, educational association founded in 1988 for elected women in state government.

Following are some excerpts from her presentation: “More
than 1,100 women were diagnosed with cervical cancer last year in
Texas. Today, I am confident that through our efforts like we’ve seen
in Texas and the work at this conference, we will see that number
decrease.” “Governor Perry has continued to focus attention on women’s health and has made building a healthy Texas a priority.”

She continued, “A
bill, championed by Rep. Delisi, requires Texas’ Department of State
Health Services in collaboration with the Texas Cancer Council and
others to develop a strategic plan (.pdf) for eliminating cervical cancer mortality by the year 2015.”

“Another
bill addresses pap tests and similar diagnostic testing for HPV making
sure that these screenings are covered under health insurance plans.”

Governor
Perry took a political risk when he issued the Executive Order
mandating Gardasil, but one can see how Anita’s influence may have
played a major part in his decision. It’s likely that she influenced the governor far more than Toomey did.

4. Merck’s campaign contributions

This is the
third of the accusations made by Perry’s critics relating to the
Gardasil/HPV issue. During the September presidential debate in Tampa, Rick
Perry acknowledged receiving $5,000 from Merck & Co. (Gardasil’s
manufacturer) in 2006. That was shortly before his executive order which
was issued in February, 2007. We can see the $5,000 contribution in
this propublica list of the donations made to Rick
Perry, along with another $1,000 as well (that’s seldom mentioned).
Regardless of whether the total for 2006 is $5,000 or $6,000, it is
still a relatively small
contribution.

To put the Merck contribution into context, it amounted to .025percent (a quarter of one percent)
of the $24,000,000 campaign funds that Perry collected in 2006 – hardly
a significant enough reason to influence the governor to take a major
political risk.

But here is a troubling issue: In the past week, reports have become rampant that Perry actually received $30,000 from Merck – with no mention of the timeframe, thus giving the impression that Perry got a $30,000 contribution from Merck. An apparent quid pro quo? This is an intentionally misleading statement and one where the obvious intent is to persuade the reader that Perry’s mandate was “bought” for $30,000.

Perry never received a single $30,000 contribution from Merck – period - it never happened.

Here are the facts: Merck contributed 6 times to Rick Perry in the period from 1998 through 2010 for a total of $28,500 (not $30,000). They contributed $5,000 in 2002, $10,000 in 2004, $6,000 in 2006, $2,500 in 2008, and $5,000 in 2010. Merck contributed a total of $28,500 to Perry in13 years (as far back as the ProPublica records go).

To imply a quid pro quo between a contribution made in 2002 or 2004 (before Gardasil was even available) and Perry’s 2007 EO is more than a stretch, it is ludicrous. And the same can be said for $5,000 contributed by Merck in 2010 (three years after
the EO mandate was overturned) is just as ridiculous. Merck made a
contribution to Perry (and many others) periodically – in this case,
every two years.

Consider what this says about those
making that accusation – they are intentionally lying to create an
incorrect perception that Perry took a $30,000 payoff in exchange for
his 2007 EO.

Was Merck’s contribution to Perry unusual? Not at all. Here’s a news flash: Merck gave $2,460,000 to politicians in 40 states during the seven years
from 2000-2006. Any objective analysis of Merck contributions to
political figures will confirm that Perry’s contributions were not at
all unusual, for example: Merck donated $4,750 to Tom McClintock,
candidate for Lt. Governor of California and $5,000 to Mitch Daniels, candidate for Governor of Indiana – it’s not known what the quid pro quo was in those cases … [sarcasm].

There’s also another little known fact that should make one wonder why Perry is supposed to have sold out for $6,000 in 2006.

If Perry was “for sale,” it begs the question: why did he ignore the $10,000 contributed to him in 2006 by GlaxoSmithKline (the producer of Cervarix, a competitor to Gardasil). Yes, GSK gave $10,000 to Perry’s campaign in 2006 - $4,000 more than Merck – they were the “high bidder.”

5. Is Gardasil really dangerous?

Some
critics have claimed that Gardasil has a record of “very serious safety
issues.” This is an obvious attempt to tarnish Perry’s image by
suggesting that Perry not only did the bidding of Merck in ordering the
vaccinations, he did so without considering the possible serious side
effects on Texas school girls.

“Since
licensure, CDC and FDA have been closely monitoring the safety of HPV
vaccines. “As of June 22, 2011, approximately 35 million doses of
Gardasil® have been distributed in the U.S. and the safety monitoring system (VAERS) received a total of 18,727 reports of adverse events following Gardasil® vaccination. As with all VAERS reports, serious events may or may not have been caused by the vaccine.”

“Of the total number of VAERS reports following Gardasil®,
92% were considered to be non-serious, and 8% were considered serious.
Out of 35,000,000 doses distributed, there were 1,498 occasions of
serious complications; that equates to a .0000428 chance that a dose
will cause a serious adverse reaction.” Hardly enough to consider the vaccine “a very serious safety issue” as claimed by some critics.

As of June, 2011, the CDC says: “Based
on all of the information we have today, CDC recommends HPV vaccination
for the prevention of most types of cervical cancer. As with all
approved vaccines, CDC and FDA will continue to closely monitor the
safety of HPV vaccines.”

Check out the CDC’s statements about Gardasil for yourself. And specifically check out the Summary at the end for the CDC’s conclusion about Gardasil’s effectiveness.

Nevertheless,
even in the face of no lesser authority than the CDC, some of Perry’s
detractors can’t accept the truth and continue to characterize Gardasil
as dangerous.

Here is a link to a .pdf of the minutes for the ACIP June 2006 meeting
where efficacy studies and safety surveillance are analyzed and
discussed. This is a large file (79 pages), but only the first quarter
(about 21 pages) relate to Gardasil and HPV. Check out all of the facts
about Gardasil if you’re so inclined. See pages 3 through 9 for the
safety discussion.

Michelle Bachmann said on NBC’s “Today” show recently, it "could potentially be a very dangerous drug," and "It can have very dangerous side effects.” All
said to expand the negative aura of Gardasil and by implication, Perry.
She also said a woman came up to her after the Tampa Republican
presidential debate to report that her daughter had suffered from
"mental retardation" after receiving the HPV vaccine.

Following is a statement from the American Academy of Pediatrics in response to Bachmann’s accusations. See a .pdf of the American Academy of Pediatrics news release here.

“The American
Academy of Pediatrics would like to correct false statements made in
the Republican presidential campaign that HPV vaccine is dangerous and
can cause mental retardation. There is absolutely no scientific validity
to this statement. Since the vaccine has been introduced, more than 35
million doses have been administered, and it has an excellent safety
record.”

“The
American Academy of Pediatrics, the Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention, and the American Academy of Family Physicians all recommend
that girls receive HPV vaccine around age 11 or 12. That’s because this
is the age at which the vaccine produces the best immune response in the
body, and because it’s important to protect girls well before the onset
of sexual activity. In the U.S.,
about 6 million people, including teens, become infected with HPV each
year, and 4,000 women die from cervical cancer. This is a life-saving
vaccine that can protect girls from cervical cancer.”

Mainstream medical organizations, including the academy and the American Cancer Society, recommend routine vaccinations for girls, "particularly those age 9 to 11," said Debbie Saslow, director of breast and gynecologic cancer for the American Cancer Society.

Does the cervical cancer vaccine carry any health risks or side effects?

Overall,
the effects are usually mild. The most common side effects of both HPV
vaccines include soreness at the injection site (the upper arm),
headaches, low-grade fever or flu-like symptoms. Sometimes dizziness or
fainting occurs after the injection, especially in adolescents.
Remaining seated for 15 minutes after the injection can reduce the risk
of fainting. In addition, Cervarix may also cause nausea, vomiting,
diarrhea or abdominal pain.

Serious
side effects — including a severe allergic response (anaphylaxis), and
neurological conditions, such as paralysis, weakness and brain swelling —
have been reported in a small number of women. The FDA continues to
monitor all such reports. To date, however, almost all reports of such
adverse side effects appear to have occurred by chance around the time
of immunization. They don't appear to have been caused by the vaccine
itself.

In conclusion, widespread vaccination has the potential to reduce cervical cancer deaths around the world by as much as two-thirds
if all women were to get the vaccine and if protection turns out to be
long-term. In addition, the vaccines can reduce the need for medical
care, biopsies, and invasive procedures associated with follow-up from
abnormal Pap tests, thus helping to reduce health care costs and
anxieties related to abnormal Pap tests and follow-up procedures.

Any reasonable observer must conclude that the evidence shows that Gardasil is not dangerous and is, in fact, recommended by the CDC, the American Academy of Pediatrics, the American Academy of Family Physicians,and the American Cancer Society. That should put the “dangerous” meme to rest.

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About Me

A Texan who loves the truth and hates the lying, cheating, and deliberate prevarication that characterizes so much of our civic discourse these days.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
RIPOSTE, n. 1. Fencing: a quick thrust after parrying a lunge 2. a quick sharp return in speech or action; counterstroke.
- The Random House Dictionary of the English Language...........
You can contact me by sending an email to me at: leorugiens23@gmail.com