January 2013

Jan 31, 2013

A flood watch for minor to moderate flooding has been issued for the Hunter and Manning River Valleys with some moderate rainfall expected during Friday and early Saturday. The towns of Scone and Gloucester will be watched closely in the coming days.

This rain is due to a front and associated upper cold pool that is sweeping through the south east states. It is expected to cross most of New South Wales on Friday with a weak low forming along the remnants of the front as it crosses into the Tasman Sea. Falls of 20 to 80mm are possible between about Sydney and Port Macquarie with the heaviest falls about the Hunter and southern Mid north Coast.

The front is causing temperatures to plunge to the low to mid teens across parts of the south east states and is still expected to trigger some snow about the Victorian High Country. Decent falls are now not expected outside of Tasmania and the far south east of South Australia and south west of Victoria.

As the front moves north it will weaken into a trough with a band of thundery showers developing across the southern and central inland of Queensland Friday before and move off the coast Saturday. most falls are expected to be relatively light.

A ridge of high pressure will spread across the east and southern states maintaining hot conditions in the west and milder days across the south east states especially near the coast with very isolated and light showers.

The monsoon remains weak with only isolated showers and thunderstorms across the northern tropics.

Showers and thunderstorms will trigger some widespread rainfall along the eastern coastline south from the Sunshine Coast, into southern Victoria and across most of Tasmania but none of these falls are expected to be significant enough or widespread enough to trigger issues in the flooded river basins.

The rainfall will be mostly welcome in Tasmania and Victoria although totals in Victoria do not look as heavy along the ranges with most of the falls above 10mm now expected along the Gippsland coastline. Widespread falls of 10 to 20mm are possible across Tasmania.

An upper cold pool with a cold front triggering the rain in the South East is expected to be cold enough to produce snow to 1500m on the ranges behind Gippsland and to 1600m on the Victorian Alps overnight Friday and Saturday but the cold snap will be short lived. Most of the south east can expect below average maximums for a period from Friday and part or all of the weekend.

As the front moves into New South Wales on Friday, severe thunderstorms are possible along the slopes and ranges and potentially towards the coast from about Taree to Batemans Bay and Canberra to Moree.

Elsewhere, the inland and west coast of the continent is expected to remain dry although cooler in Victoria and South Australia with hot conditions persisting about the south west coast. The monsoon remains weak with only isolated showers and thunderstorms expected in the far north.

Jan 29, 2013

The only regions looking at the possibility of significant rainfall in the coming days will be across Gippsland and nearby ranges of Victoria and Tasmania. The set up for this is a cold front and upper cold pool crossing both states with a low forming along the front Friday and Saturday triggering widespread showers with widespread falls in eastern Victoria of 10 to 25mm with similar totals across Tasmania and possible isolated heavier falls. The cold air with this system could see snow fall to 1500m in Victoria.

The south west of Western Australia is in for a continuation of the hot dry conditions with a high in the Bight maintaining moderate to fresh south east to easterly winds with some respite on at times from the afternoon sea breeze. There is no rain in the forecast outlook.

Showers and thunderstorms forecast in the flooded areas of New South Wales and Queensland are not expected to trigger widespread significant rainfall. There could be some localised heavier falls for the remainder of the week which could trigger some localised flash flooding but most falls will not be significant.

Jan 25, 2013

Severe weather warnings have been issued through parts of coastal Queensland and New South Wales as a low heads south and combines with a trough moving through New South Wales on Saturday. An upper level disturbance is also helping to maintain the strength of the low with moist onshore winds feeding the heavy rainfall. Flood watches are current from the Hunter to the Qld border in NSW. Dangerous Surf, abnormally high tides, damaging winds and heavy rain are all associated with this system. Warnings

The north east of Victoria could record some welcome rainfall over the weekend with showers and isolated thunder tending to rain Saturday with more showers Sunday and Monday. Elsewhere there will be little rain in the state or across the remainder of the southern mainland. The east coast of Tasmania could pick up some isolated moderate falls as the trough sits the east of the state Sunday.

Jan 24, 2013

A tropical low, monsoon trough and upper level disturbance are combining to trigger widespread heavy rain, showers and thunderstorms along the eastern coast of Queensland with moderate to heavy falls. The heaviest band will continue to shift south through the weekend and potentially reach as far south as the Sydney, Central Coast and Illawarra region by Monday. Squally winds are also expected along the coastal districts with severe weather warnings in place for Queensland and as the low moves south they could be issued for parts of New South Wales. See warnings here

Thunderstorms could also trigger some heavy rainfall in the area bounded by Omeo to Wagga Wagga to Canberra to Bombala. This would impact the Harrietville and Feathertop fires in Victoria but is likely to be too far east to affect the other fires on the ranges. There is an expectation of very little rain elsewhere outside of the areas mentioned above and the tropics although a band of rainfall will spread through the eastern inland of Western Australia from ex-TC Peta which will itself move back out to sea and dissipate.

A high in the Bight will maintain milder weather in all the southern states apart from WA where easterly winds around the high will maintain sunny and very warm to hot conditions.

Jan 23, 2013

Northern Queensland has been hit by heavy monsoon rain with 756mm at Aurukun, Merluna 568, Weipa 625 and 485 Mossman South, South Johnstone 629, Tully Sugar Mill 650 and falls of 300 to 450 across the north coast district. These heavy falls are due to a low, remnants of TC Oswald and an active Monsoon trough. The heavy falls will move south along the Queensland coast with falls well in excess of 100mm expected along the coastal fringe north of Fraser Island between now and Saturday. See warnings here.. Qld warnings

Temperatures in the south east will rise ahead of a trough introducing a milder change on Friday but will produce little rainfall in South Australia and Victoria although the southern Tablelands and Snowies region of NSW could record some decent totals as well as the far northeast ranges of Victoria. Totals in Tasmania will be less than 10mm.

Tropical Cyclone Peta is expected to cross the Western Australia Pilbara coast north of Karratha overnight and pass back out to sea as a low and move in a westerly direction out to sea. Heavy rain and damaging winds will affect the region for 24 to 48 hours.

Jan 22, 2013

Heavy Monsoon rain across the northern Tropics of Queensland will slowly shift south through the week as the remnants of Cyclone Oswald moves south over land, reaching Mackay Thursday and as far south as Rockhampton and Gladstone through the weekend, depending on the movement of the low. Moderate falls are also possible across much of the Northwest and Northern Goldfields. Severe weather warnings are in place, Warnings

A tropical low could form into a category 1 Cyclone on Wednesday and potentially cross the coast near Karratha with squally thunderstorms and 100km/h wind gusts before weakening quickly and moving south over land.

A trough over New South Wales is being drawn east by a cold front moving into the Tasman Sea and showers and thunderstorms are reaching the ranges and coast. This trough will remain active on Wednesday triggering further showers and thunderstorms with the potential for the development of severe thunderstorms. Conditions will ease Thursday. Follow the track of the low here; Cyclone

A trough will approach the south east states Thursday increasing temperatures before moving into New South Wales on Friday. Showers and thunderstorms will develop with the trough, easing to isolated showers behind it with no widespread significant falls expected outside of the southern half of Tasmania where falls of 10 to 20mm are possible. The trough could also trigger some widespread accumulated falls of 10 to 20mm across parts of the New South Wales tablelands and coast.

Jan 21, 2013

The late arriving Monsoon is already showing signs of waning across the Northern Territory and Western Australia after some welcome rainfall but totals well short of the monthly average. A low currently in the Gulf of Carpentaria and another off the east coast of the state will dominate that states weather drawing moisture laden air across the Tropical districts and potential to move down into the central inland of the state later this week. The movement of the tropical lows is still very uncertain but rainfall through to Wednesday is expected to be heavy across most of the tropics before heading inland from Thursday.

All the southern states will generally be dry this week. There is the chance of some very light showers about parts east of the South West Land Division and east and west coast of Tasmania but these falls are all expected to be less than a couple of millimetres. Temperatures will rise over the coming days but are not expected to reach recent levels.

New South Wales and the ACT will remain unsettled and humid through the week as a trough sits over the inland triggering cloud showers and isolated thunderstorms. Day to day falls will tend to be light but accumulated totals in the north east districts could add up to some better totals but most of the state is looking at falls generally less than 10mm through the working week.

Jan 17, 2013

A high ridging into the Bight will maintain a cooler south to south east wind flow over the southern states through the weekend although the winds will draw hot air from the western interior into the South West Land Division with hotter conditions developing. There will be little moisture with these winds so apart from some low cloud little rain is expected apart from the south west of Tasmania.

Moisture levels and instability will be greater over the northern half of New South Wales and southern Queensland so once the cooler change moves through later Friday and Saturday there is a higher potential for showers and isolated thunderstorms with possible widespread falls of 10 to 20mm especially about parts of the northern and central ranges, slopes and plains. Only isolated and generally light rainfall is likely across the southern half of the state at this stage.

The northern tropics will remain active as the monsoon continues to build with the potential for localised squally monsoonal showers and thunderstorms and moderate to heavy falls with this pattern shows little change over the next four days. By late in the weekend a low could form in the Gulf of Carpentaria and move across the Cape into the Coral Sea on Monday. Although most models suggest this development they vary on development of the low once in the Coral Sea but this will be well worth watching.