Parliament’s Back on Monday: Expect Word on the Budget Soon

Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper returns to Ottawa this weekend after a nearly week-long a trip to the Middle East, where he was treated with near-rockstar status in Israel due to his government’s staunch support for the Jewish state.

But he’s in store for a less welcoming reception when Canada’s parliament returns to work on Monday after a six-week break.

The time away from Parliament Hill had one positive effect for Mr. Harper’s Conservative Party. There’s been less public talk about the Senate expense scandal which dominated the fall session and managed to overshadow some of Mr. Harper’s recent policy achievements, such as clinching a free-trade deal with the European Union and signaling that a balanced budget is in store for 2015.

A poll released Wednesday from Ottawa-based Abacus Data suggested the Liberal Party, led by Justin Trudeau, had 34% support from committed voters, while the Conservatives trailed with 28%.

Here are some things to watch when Parliament resumes Monday:

The 2014 budget: The Conservatives are eyeing the second week of February to introduce their latest budget, according to two people told of the government’s plans. A spokesman for Finance Minister Jim Flaherty declined to discuss the timing of the budget document, which besides providing an assessment of public finances also tends to set out near-term policy initiatives. Mr. Flaherty is scheduled to meet with private-sector economists on Monday, according to a person familiar with the plans, which suggests a budget sooner rather than later.

The Canadian dollar: The loonie has weakened considerably this month, losing nearly 4% versus the greenback. Canadian pundits have debated the Canadian government role in that drop — especially after comments from Mr. Flaherty about the level of the currency and the state of monetary policy. Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz denied this week any political pressure to put downward pressure on the currency. Nevertheless, expect opposition politicians to explore further.

The Senate scandal: It’s unclear when the next shoe will drop. The Royal Canadian Mounted Police continues its probe. But expect parliamentary fireworks when and if investigators file additional documents with the courts.

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Canada Real Time provides insight and analysis into what’s making news in Canada, a country punching above its weight on the world stage thanks to its vast resources and strong banking sector. Drawing on the expertise of The Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones Newswires, we take a look at developments in fields ranging from business to politics to culture. You can contact the editors at canadaeditors@dowjones.com