Pac-10 football: Updated projections for the ’09 race

Here’s the second of my post-spring practice, not-quite-as-regular-as-I’d-like, Hotline items looking ahead to the Pac-10 football season, which cannot arrive soon enough. (The first item, on the quarterbacks, can be found here. And coming next: a look at the ’09 schedules.)

This is an updated order-of-finish projection based on spring developments, with a dash of pure conjecture. And I’ll no doubt have a pre-training camp revision … and a post-training camp alteration …

Yes, yes, yes: It’s a lot of projections and such, but things change, especially my mind, which cannot get a handle on the league race — it’s a tough year to call with so much uncertainty at quarterback and so many teams seemingly grouped together.

1. USC
Looking vulnerable with a new quarterback and new defense, except the defense isn’t all that new up front and in the secondary — really, the LBs are the only big question. And the offensive line should be one of the best in the country, which will power a running game and provide the protection to take the pressure off Aaron Corp/Matt Barkley. The schedule is a problem — the new QB has two huge road games in the first five weeks (Ohio State and Cal).

2. Cal
The Bears have the defense, the OL and the tailbacks to challenge USC for the title and reach the Rose Bowl … if they get decent quarterback play and the receivers hold up their end of the aerial bargain. With Oregon and USC on back-to-back early weekends, and then a trip to UCLA, we’ll know where the Bears stand by mid-October.

3. Oregon
Ducks could easily finish second and I wouldn’t be surprised if they, not Cal, overthrow USC. They’re in great shape at the skill positions and decent shape on the OL and in the secondary. But they lost a lot on the defensive front and have no margin for error with the difficult schedule: at Boise State, Utah and Purdue, then Cal — and that’s September!

4. UCLA
My sleeper pick … I figure at least one team will finish higher than expected and at least one will finish lower than expected — happens every year. Three reasons I picked the Bruins for the upside surprise 1) they have a very good defense with all-leaguers in every unit 2) the second year with Norm Chow’s playbook, and 3) an improved offensive line. Bottom line: Four or five teams could finish fourth. Or there could be a four-team tie at, say, 4-5. The Bruins are in that cluster.

5. Oregon State
Sure, the Beavs will probably make me look dumb — they almost always do. And they’re certainly in the group of teams that could finish second/third because of the veteran QBs, the Rodgers brothers, plus Mike (Riley) and Mark (Banker). But goodness, they lost a lot of frontline players in Stroughter, Levitre, Butler, Norris and the CBs.

6. Arizona
Three major holes to fill (QB, OT and WR) and a tougher schedule (at Iowa) will offset the experience (14 returning starters) and smattering of high-end talent. That said, here’s another member of the Pac-10’s muddled middle — a team that could go bowling if it gets decent play from one of two new quarterbacks. Or finish eighth if it doesn’t.

7. Stanford
Had the Cardinal slotted for fifth when I initially sketched out the projections, then dropped it because of the rookie quarterback and questions on the OL and in the secondary (especially at CB). As with last year, Stanford needs to rack up the victories early — the opener at WSU is absolutely critical — to avoid must-win situations down the stretch against Oregon and Cal and USC and Notre Dame. Best case: seven wins. Worst case: three wins. Best guess: five wins.

8. Arizona State
The Devils could have one of the best defenses in the conference with Dexter Davis and Mike Nixon, but the schedule is tough (at Georgia) and the QB is unproven and they need to proven they can run the ball before being projection for an upper-tier finish. Could be ’07 all over again. Or it could be ’08 all over again.

9. Washington
I expect the Huskies to be better than they were in ’08 due to an incrementally easier schedule (Idaho!), the new-coach bounce, a healthy Jake Locker and some good young players brought in 15 months ago by Willingham. But I’m not convinced that Steve Sarkisian is the long-term answer, and I say that because USC’s offense wasn’t all that well coached when he was in charge: Too many penalties, too predictable, and too little production given all the talent.

10. Washington State
If the Cougars don’t finish last, it would be a development on the order of USC not finishing first — not a shock, but a surprise. There are a few decent piece and many, many holes.

Jon Wilner

Post navigation

To all the cal fans here: If Harbaugh actually did suck, then why would NFL teams show any interest in him at all?

milo

red not blue — Hairball is still at stanfurd… ’nuff said.

Arms

That’s right. Nobody talk about Oregon. When Oregon finishes either #1 or #2 in the Pac-10 and in the top 10 nationwide pretend not to notice. Ignor the football program that they have put together over the past 10+ years. Ignor the fact that your school has continued to have their lunch handed to them when they face the Ducks (USC sometimes). After the game you can ignor the loss that that Ducks just handed you because they are only the Ducks and your team is great.

AERose

“@AERose. This is incorrect. Odds are made solely to have roughly one-half of the betting money on one side and one-half on the other. I assume that this ignorance of this matter stems from your rooting interests in the bears.”

Odds are made and given solely for the house to make a profit. I assume that this ignorance of this matter stems from, I dunno, mild intoxication.

B

@AERose – dth is right, the odds are set so half the money is on one side and half on the other. The casino takes an extra 5% from the losing side (I think it’s 5, it might be 10). If they get the money on both sides close to equal, it’s a guaranteed profit for the house.

Vintage Cal

Everywhere I’ve been, the juice is 10%…………………………

AERose

Fine, then tell a professional poker player that odds are for losers.

silverlake bruin

Jon did a great job covering UCLA back when he was with the LA Daily News.

I think KAL beats $c and comes in first this year. I think with all the off field distractions for the $c athletic department and the low quality of position coaches, a new offensive coordinator, a new qb, and a tougher schedule will undo the boys in skirts over in South Central.

I see $C at #2, Oregon State at #3, UCLA a surprising #4 (the defense is better than people think, the offensive line will be improved, and we have an easier schedule) Oregon at #5,

The rest I am not so sure about…

mk92

Interesting…Ted Miller of ESPN also revised his projections and did the opposite of JW…Miller moved the Card up two slots (from 8 to 6) based primarily on additional confidence in the O-Line (+17 starters back overall and impressive performance by Luck). Makes you wonder if JW was watching the same spring practices that Miller watched.

MEG Hoopster

The Ducks don’t finish lower than #3. No way they’re #5 as Silverlake projects (HOPES?). Oregon has a very favorable home vs road schedule, and that will make a huge difference in the final conference standings.

The cardinal are much improved thanks to jim harbaugh! They have a great running back, a strong defense, and an up and coming quarterback! I believe the cardinal will be able to make a bowl game. On the big game though, i think the cardinal will put up a fight but will have a tough go at it. Cal is a consitently good team and is always a challenge. But no one knows about the upset more than stanford!