Analyst: Xoom Struggles, Honeycomb Dead-On-Arrival

Android flagship tablet Xoom (from Motorola Mobility) isn’t selling, according to Global Equities analyst Trip Chowdry. The analyst believes that Motorola Mobility (MMI) has sold between 25,000 and 120,000 units so far out of the 500,000-800,000 estimated to have been manufactured. Worse still for Android tablets as a whole, Mr. Chowdry said that Android 3.0 “Honeycomb” — the tablet version of Android that runs on the Xoom — is “dead on arrival.”

In a research note obtained by Fortune and AllThingsD, Mr. Chowdry told clients that Honeycomb is “incomplete” and “unstable,” and that it has a “poor UI.” That has contributed to the Xoom selling just 5% - 15% of the 500,000 - 800,000 units Motorola Mobility manufactured (MMI will announce first quarter results on Thursday, April 28th). By comparison, Apple sold 4.69 million iPads during the March quarter.

The analyst’s comments about Honeycomb largely echo a report from Taiwanese newspaper DigiTimes from earlier this month. The tech publication said that Xoom sales have been “disappointing,” and it quoted component suppliers who said that Honeycomb had “several issues” and that it was unstable. The Global Equities research note puts a number on those “disappointing” sales.

Mr. Chowdry went further in his criticism of MMI’s strategy, saying that the company’s “competitive fixation” with Apple and Research In Motion is “misplaced.” Rather than trying to out-innovate either of those two companies, Mr. Chowdry believes MMI should instead use its broad mobile patent portfolio to “selectively attack […] other Android phone OEM’s.”

As mentioned above, MMI announces earnings on Thursday, April 28th. Many will be watching that report for news on how well the Android market is doing taking on iPad and iPad 2, and for news on whether the addition of Verizon as an iPhone carrier is affecting sales of Motorola’s Android smartphones. Mr. Chowdry believes that that the Verizon iPhone deal “has taken the wind” out of Android’s sails.

MMI closed lower on Monday, ending the day at US$23.93, down $0.99 (-3.97%), on strong volume of 2.4 million shares trading hands.

AAPL closed up at $353.009, a gain of $2.313 (+0.66%), on very light volume of 9.5 million shares.

Bryan, this analyst is obviously smokin’ the happy weed. After all, no less a tech analyst than Michael “Give the Money Back to the Shareholders” Dell proclaims that Android will inevitably crush Apple’s iOS into dust:

And, of course, our own tech luminary Bosco gives Android a mere six months to surpass iPad?so what can possibly be going on here? Michael Dell and Bosco can?t be wrong, after all?.

Someone has a serious reading comprehension problem, because I’ve been pretty oblique about a time frame—way too oblique for you to claim I said 6 months—but I have no doubt Android will catch iOS in the tablet-ish space, just like phones. There are too many good ideas that don’t originate at Apple for Apple to maintain such dominance.

Bosco, sincere apologies for the misquote. I should have known better for quoting anyone without a link. My bad. Let the games continue….

mc1:03 AM EDT, Apr. 26th, 2011Guest

buddhistMonkey,

There’s no doubt that iPad is selling well - that’s well documented by every analyst on the planet. I was simply pointing to the Amazon ranking to dispute the claim that “Xoom Struggles, Honeycomb DOA.”

And, why be so defensive? iPad is just an electronic gadget like every other tablet out there. No, it’s not magical.

Oh, I did notice that Amazon user reviews for the iPad are less positive than for the Xoom. What can we make of this piece of information? Any more conspiracy theories out there?

And another thing, always take Wall Street analyst data with a grain of salt. Trust me, I know what I’m talking about here.

I have a hunch that a lot of people are saying Android will get 10, 15, 20% of the tablet market but then if you ask these prognosticators if they will pick an Android tablet over iPad, virtually all of them will say Hell No!

It’s like Jaguar, most luxury car buyers will say Jaguar makes great cars with timeless designs that should live on forever. But then they all go out and buy Mercedes, BMW and Lexus.

Here is a weird “bug” I noticed on my wifi Xoom: cannot access all apps including ones I paid for on the android market, the excuse was “carrier not supported”.... That’s on a wifi only device!

Carrier tied android stores is thie most anti-consumer thing google did with the android. Well, mostly anti international consumers. At least I can easily use a US iTunes account without location restrictions.

Someone has a serious reading comprehension problem, because I?ve been pretty oblique about a time frame?way too oblique for you to claim I said 6 months?but I have no doubt Android will catch iOS in the tablet-ish space, just like phones. There are too many good ideas that don?t originate at Apple for Apple to maintain such dominance.

Well, as I said in a previous post, I shouldn’t have quoted you without a link. And you were right: You never said six months. On April 4, 2011, you said basically that Apple would be conceding the tablet space in a year…12 months, rather than 6:

John, is it possible that Henry Blodget, Phillip Elmer-DeWitt, and you are all correct? That is:
1. The iPhone is a lost battle, beaten by a more malleable and adaptable competitor.
2. The flaccid Verizon Unicorn basically let Apple?s phone market share tread water for a month on the backs of people dissatisfied with blue and hoping for something better with red.
3. Still Apple?s financials will be great because of the iPad.

Are there lessons for Apple and fans to learn from iPhone v. Android phones, or is it best to remain confident while being lapped? And what if a year from now, Apple fans are conceding the tablet space? Is that then a pattern of Apple control pushing it to a niche?

You still have a serious reading comprehension and interpretation problem. Key quote: What if a year from now… That is a hypothetical in the context of phones having lost to Android, not a prediction. You understand the difference, right? The hypothetical is not a grad school level rhetorical device. And then above in this thread, you claim I said Android would pass iPad in 6 months.

Do you wonder why I root for Android? On a positive note, how much of your time did I waste sending you on a chase for a quote which you had to take completely out of context and then distort to try to save some face? Hilarious. I actually know what I say and predict, so it’s no surprise to me that you couldn’t find anything close to what you claimed I wrote. Hate the messenger if you like, just try to have a little integrity. That’s all.

Bosco, I posted an apology for my original misquote. Fifth post down in the comments. And as for misquoting you, how can I misquote you when I just quoted your entire post? You said, and I will repeat:

Are there lessons for Apple and fans to learn from iPhone v. Android phones, or is it best to remain confident while being lapped? And what if a year from now, Apple fans are conceding the tablet space? Is that then a pattern of Apple control pushing it to a niche?

If you’re talking about Apple needing to learn a lesson from iPhone vs. Android, talking about Apple being confident while being lapped, and talking about a pattern of Apple control pushing its products into a niche, you can say “I said ‘what if’” all you want, but your implications are clear: the iPad will lose out to Android just as did the iPhone.

And to address your “positive note,” it took less than ten minutes of searching to find your post this morning.

Finally, I’m not “hating the messenger,” as you said. I’m merely addressing what you wrote, which was just another typical “Android will crush control-freak Apple into dust” post. Regarding the iPad, we shall see. Me trying to save face? Hardly. It looks like you’re trying to save face as every Android tablet that enters the ring gets knocked out in the first round, despite being open, blah blah, blah, and Apple being a closed-system, walled-garden, control freak.

mc10:36 AM EDT, Apr. 26th, 2011Guest

My friend, I feel another bet in the works.? I will reassert that the tablet market will be like the iPod market (since ?digital media device? market doesn?t really work any more), and not smartphones.

Don’t be delusional. The tablet market will behave like the commodity PC market and Apple will have <10% share over time.

Don?t be delusional. The tablet market will behave like the commodity PC market and Apple will have <10% share over time.

That didn?t happen with the iPod why would it happen within the tablet space, especially given that most android fans claim the ipad is nothing but a big iPod touch? If anything Apple has proven the consumer market is much more in their favor then the PC wars of the 80s, for which of most that time Steve Jobs was not at Apple. And I doubt we will be seeing buy 1 get 1 free Droid tablets driving their sell thru as Google enjoyed with phones.

There are two things I will reiterate about this tablet market. What Apple has defined with the iPad isn’t the be-all, end-all of netbook and notebook sized devices with touch and/or pen input. I don’t think there is a be-all, end-all, just as with netbooks, there are popular models, but lots and lots of niche choices. That Eee Pad Transformer looks like an amazingly well-thought out device for someone who needs a configuration like that. Similarly, 7 inch tabs have portability advantages—with Bluetooth and HDMI out are quite capable when you get to a desk.

The second thing is that Flash will quickly become the de facto API for non-Windows devices. Steve Jobs needs to be gone for Apple to swallow that reality and adapt to it. When Adobe gets an upper hand, they will use it to pummel Apple and Steve because that’s exactly was done to them.

Oh, and a third thing… app stores will have their place, but there will be choice. And there will be plenty of software that’s not available in app stores.

I’m reluctant to take a bet with Bryan because I have no idea how to quantify those things. He can write story after story about individual failed Android tablets that look to be heavily inspired by the iPad, and still, Apple could end up with its typical niche in whatever this space becomes.

There are too many good ideas that don?t originate at Apple for Apple to maintain such dominance.

Unfortunately, the vast majority of those ideas (in the computer/phone/tablet OEM sphere) these days are simply derivatives of Apple’s implementation of Apple’s (and others’) ideas.

When Adobe gets an upper hand

And just when will that be? They’ve YET to release a mobile version of Flash that isn’t a dog. Christ, it was 2007!!! when the iPhone came out and four years on they haven’t solved the problems that kept Flash off iOS (hint: it’s not because Steve Jobs didn’t want it on iOS) in the first place. Flash was crap on mobile in 2007, it’s crap on mobile in 2011. And if by some miracle enough dumbasses agree to standardize on Flash and it does become the de facto API for non-Windows devices, it will still be crap then and it will continue to be crap for the rest of its existence because Adobe is incapable of making it not-crap.

Four years = incompetence. Four years = too lazy to make it work now, let’s let multi-core processors and battery innovation solve our problems for us.

The second thing is that Flash will quickly become the de facto API for non-Windows devices. Steve Jobs needs to be gone for Apple to swallow that reality and adapt to it. When Adobe gets an upper hand, they will use it to pummel Apple and Steve because that?s exactly was done to them.

If Adobe ever truly gets an upper hand on Flash’s issues with performance, security, touch-based UI, stability and battery life on mobile, it will still not be in their best interest to “pummel Apple”. Apple is well know for reversing directions when technology and users’ desires reach the tipping point (excellent examples here: Steve Jobs? 6 Sneakiest Statements). If and when Flash on an iOS device creates a good experience that will sell more product, I expect Apple will happily reverse their stance.

Apple is not rejecting Flash out of spite but rather to preserve a quality user experience. And Adobe would be extremely foolish to ignore or alienate the massive iOS market.

mrmgraphics, don’t worry about Bosco. His problems are in the psychopathic regions of his mind and as a Sophist he finds solace in the WC whence he conjures his personal domain of influence.

Ron M hasn’t been round for a while but he was keeping track of Bosco’s predictions. It was only when Ron pointed this out that Bosco started to cover the greatest thinking part of his body by adding wiggle room to his predictions. Unfortunately he slips as he has in his latest reaffirmation of Flash ever getting out of the pan.

Some how he seems to hang on to his megalomaniacal perceptions that his lament is “educating” those who are interested in the world of Apple.

As the clown of TMO he is good for a laugh and we encourage his dirge as it makes great sport round the supper table. He continues at the TMO because there is not much solace, joy or exclaim to fame for him when he conjoins his rants with his own kind held at the wakes on Droid forums. There it is hard to be high priest of the Wake where everyone earnestly pleads for the demise of the platform Droids must copy for the survival of their bug infested platform.

Aside: Interesting isn’t it how the shrinking violet of not-so-smart mobile phones is doing since iPhone began its assent on Verizon. What sugar plums dance in the nightmares of the desperately disappointed can only make the caring Apple fan feel empathy and sorrow for the tormented Droid soul of sophist’s cant.

@mrm: You owe me an apology for the snark in the original post. It doesn?t work given that your asserted ?fact? was plain wrong.

So my snark would have worked had my facts been correct? Regardless, I’ll apologize for the snark. I already apologized for the misquote…again, see the fifth comment down.

The second thing is that Flash will quickly become the de facto API for non-Windows devices. Steve Jobs needs to be gone for Apple to swallow that reality and adapt to it. When Adobe gets an upper hand, they will use it to pummel Apple and Steve because that?s exactly was done to them.

Oh, and a third thing? app stores will have their place, but there will be choice. And there will be plenty of software that?s not available in app stores.

Don?t be delusional. The tablet market will behave like the commodity PC market and Apple will have <10% share over time.

You’re ignoring the consumerization of IT. In the heyday of the commodity PC market, IT departments controlled the vast majority of PC purchases, and employees used what the IT departments gave them: Windows PCs. Today, IT departments are increasingly supporting smartphones and tablets purchased by employees as consumers, and then brought to work for corporate use as well. With IT centralized purchasing removed from the equation, and consumer—rather than corporate IT—interests and tastes making the purchasing decisions, the company that creates the most desirable consumer electronics devices will be the one to reign supreme, for two reasons: On both the consumer side and the corporate IT side, consumer purchases will dictate market share.

Given that, and given the complete, utter, dismal, and downright laughable attempts by Android to take on the iPad, let alone Microsoft’s decade or so of Windows tablet failures, let alone the fact that Apple is selling iPads as fast as they can make then, I don’t see Apple’s market share dropping below market leader anytime soon.

Ron M hasn?t been round for a while but he was keeping track of Bosco?s predictions.

Thanks mhikl, it is nice to know that I am missed!! Been busy with Spring Break with my family and then a two week business trip to Singapore and Shanghai. Was watching MacO a bit from over there, but much too busy to follow closely.

Yes, Bosco is now much too savvy to make his great predictions just 6 months out anymore, now that he knows people are starting to watch. mrmgraphics, I’ve made the same mistakes before. In any event, I do have a folder in my mail devoted to Bosco’s predictions now, and occasionally read them just for the humor. His best predictions were dated Nov 2010 - Jan 2011, and they predict “in about a year from now’ so needless to say I’ll be posting these predictions for the 2011 holiday season!! I wouldn’t want to ruin the surprise now!!

OMG, I think mhikl and RonMac Guy just suffered a near-fatal SNARK ATTACK!. But then again, who am I to judge???

LMFAO mrmgraphics. Hey, didn’t Bosco demand an apology from you on your snark attack? I suspect mhikl and I will not be seeing an apology!! But hey, we are used to it.

Just a little hint: Bosco predicted that by the end of 2011 Android tablets will be selling 3:2 over the (as Bosco put it in Jan) “declining and mostly irrelevant” iPad. Given it is almost May, android tablets have a VERY long way to go. And with Xoom struggling, who is next to help android tablets get off the starting block?

So, if 3:2 by Nov 2011, they should be 40-50% by now, so mrmgraphics wasn’t too far off with the “passing iPad in 6 months” comment that Bosco crapped all over. Funny stuff!!

Bosco has stated that he will admit when he is wrong, so we’ll see later this year!! That will make my Christmas wish come true!!

But, you “pointed” to it without mentioning three very important facts:

1. Amazon, itself, does NOT sell the iPad. It hosts “merchants” (including individuals) who do, though it’s likely that none are authorized Apple dealers.

2. Amazon counts every SKU separately. There are 6 SKUs of the original iPad and at least 18 for the iPad 2 (3 sizes x WiFi/ATT/Verizon x 2 colors). There are TWO SKUs for the Xoom. So, the WiFi Xoom sells more than any ONE “model” of the iPad,. The relevant comparison would have to be “all Xooms” vs “all iPads,” but Amazon doesn’t do that. (This has plagued the Amazon ratings for iPods, as well: every color and size of the iPod Nano is counted separately.)

3. The Xoom sells at a small discount (last time I looked, it was $9) on retail. The iPads sell for a premium above retail, often 20% or even more.

This should tell you two things. First, the iPads being sold on Amazon are NOT from Apple dealers—they couldn’t charge more than retail. Instead, these are “merchants” (including individuals) who bought one or more iPads AT RETAIL (no discounts, anywhere) and are selling it/them with a large markup. (The same is happening on eBay.)

Second, this says that the demand for the Xoom is rather small, as the supply (number manufactured) is also much smaller than the iPad, yet Amazon discounts the price.

Unless you mention these facts, your note is incomplete and deceptive. (I’m not saying that you intended to deceive.)