NHL Stanley Cup Playoff Preview: Round 1

2012-04-08 11:55:00

The Stanley Cup Playoffs are here once again and the NHL championship is up for grabs. Lord Stanley's mug has been owned by the city of Boston for the past year, but new contenders have stepped to the fore. The New York Rangers last won in 1994 and surprised many in their chance for this year's Presidents' Trophy. With a Vezina-caliber netminder in net, the Rangers are once again in the running.

But they weren't the only surprise team this season. The St. Louis Blues, who fired Davis Payne early, did an immediate 180 under Ken Hitchcock. They say defense wins championships and the Blues will put that theory to the test.

The Nashville Predators are all-in this season for a Stanley Cup push, but the team hasn't had a ton of success in its post-season history. This season is full of opportunities for them, including changing the image of the club around the hockey world.

And, of course, the usual playoff warriors from Vancouver, Detroit, Chicago, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia are back for a other crack. Who will win the Stanley Cup? Follow THN.com throughout the most magnificent tournament in sport.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

How the Rangers win: Henrik Lundqvist will determine how far the Rangers advance. He's been Hart Trophy-great and he'll have to be the same in the playoffs. New York needs to continue its stingy 'D,' especially in the shot-blocking department.

How the Senators win: Ottawa has one of the NHL’s more potent offenses. Its power play and 5-on-5 goals differential both ranked in the top 11 of the league, while its goals-against average hovered near the bottom. Coach Paul MacLean has recognized his team’s resurgence under the emergence of offense-minded blueliner Erik Karlsson and is prepared to go goal-for-goal with an opponent.

How the Rangers lose: If Marian Gaborik and Brad Richards are shut down, the Rangers will have some troubles. Their two stars will need to be sensational and one of their depth forwards will have to emerge as this year's Sean Bergenheim. Ruslan Fedotenko did it before with 12 goals in 22 games for Tampa Bay in 2004.

How the Senators lose: When the Sens’ offense dries up, it’s rare that their goaltending or defense picks up the slack. In fact, in 20 of its 27 losses, Ottawa scored two goals or fewer. This isn’t a particularly stingy defensive group. It needs decent production to win.

Rangers question mark: The 23rd-ranked power play has been brutal and better come to life for New York to end its 18-year Stanley Cup drought. Boston proved Cup contenders can go without a great PP, but it's not the recommended route.

Senators question mark: The third-year pro Karlsson skyrocketed to fame and Norris Trophy contention via elite puck-moving abilities and offensive instincts. But other than a brief toe in the water in 2009-10, Karlsson isn’t tested in the post-season. His play will determine much of the Senators’ success.

Rangers key stat: The Blueshirts have the third-highest winning percentage (.814) when scoring first, so the blueprint will be to get up early and play shutdown hockey the rest of the way.

Winner and why: The Sens have been a pleasant surprise, over-performing in what was thought to be a rebuilding year, but that won’t carry over into the second season. New York is the better team any way you cut it and especially where it matters: between the pipes. And losing three in a row to close out the season, as the Senators did, certainly doesn’t set a good tone for an opening showdown against what was the league’s top team for most of the year. A young Ottawa squad will gain experience this post-season and little more. Rangers in four.

How the Bruins win: If the Bruins don’t win by overloading opponents with speed, skill and depth, they do so by goading them into losing their cool in the midst of a hyper-physical Boston attack. The Bruins’ high-tempo game requires their goalies to step up and bail them out and for the most part, starter Tim Thomas and No. 2 Tuukka Rask have responded well.

How the Capitals win: By having Alex Ovechkin play like a superstar. Even though ‘Ovie’ had the worst season of his career, he was still fuelling Washington’s engine. When he scored a goal, the Caps were 18-5-2 and when he registered a point, they were 31-7-3. It’s also crucial for the Caps to lead after the first period, since they hold an .870 winning percentage in that situation, second best in the league.

How the Bruins lose: The Carolina Hurricanes were 4-0 against the Bruins this year. They didn’t engage Boston in its attempts at intimidation and gummed up the Bruins’ ability to create speed through the neutral zone. A patient, disciplined team can give the Bruins fits.

How the Capitals lose: The Caps have been outscored in the first and second periods by a wide margin, making comebacks difficult to mount. Being without Mike Green and Nicklas Backstrom for long stretches also hurt their offense immensely.

Bruins question mark: When does this team run out of gas? Boston played 25 playoff games last year, rebounded from a 3-7-0 start this season and endured another extended slump after the all-star break. Injuries have cut into the Bruins’ depth, so another lengthy playoff run will be a huge challenge.

Capitals question mark: Is the Caps’ window for success closing faster than expected? This was an all-in year for them, but instead of dominating the East, they were scratching and clawing to just make the top eight. Will that be a motivating factor, or did the stretch drive drain Washington?

Bruins key stat: If Boston repeats as Stanley Cup champion, it will be the first team to do so in 13 seasons (Detroit, ’97 & ’98).

Capitals key stat: One of the secrets to playoff success is winning on the road – and if you’re in the bottom half of the seeding, it’s a must. But at 16-21-4, the Caps have the fewest road wins of any post-season team and posted their first losing road record since 2007.

Winner and why: This is a much closer matchup than the seeds would suggest. Each team has been brutally inconsistent all year, yet each has regained its stride down the stretch (Boston is 7-2-1 in its past 10, Washington 6-2-2). The difference in the end will be the two Alexes: Ovechkin has 11 goals in his past 13 games; Semin 10 points in nine. The last two times these two played – March 10 and March 29 in Boston - the Caps came out on top. Capitals in six.

How the Panthers win: Surprisingly, Jose Theodore has picked up right where Tomas Vokoun left off. The 2002 Hart and Vezina Trophy winner had his best season since his glory days in Montreal though injuries limited his starts. To give you an idea of how much better the Panthers could have been with scoring depth: Theodore lost eight games in which he allowed two goals or fewer.

How the Devils win: The Devils should be the sleeper in the East, but only if Martin Brodeur carries his strong second-half play into a sizzling playoff performance. New Jersey has the weapons up front and Ilya Kovalchuk has been on fire.

How the Panthers lose: The Panthers, one of the league’s worst teams 5-on-5, rely too much on the man advantage, which isn’t a good trait in a league with declining penalty minutes. Any gains made by their seventh-ranked power play is lost with their 25th-ranked penalty kill.

How the Devils lose: If Brodeur falters, the Devils are doomed. The ‘D’ corps is a work in progress, including 19-year-old Adam Larsson. Teams will no doubt target Larsson and company to soften them up in a long series.

Panthers question mark: Does Florida have enough depth to go on a playoff run? The team flew out of the gate and sustained early-season success based on the play of Kris Versteeg, Stephen Weiss and Tomas Fleischmann on its first line, but as the production of that trio slowed no other forward picked up the slack, save for a small surge from Sean Bergenheim.

Devils question mark: The two rookie Adams – Larsson and Henrique. Larsson plays big minutes on the blueline, though adding Marek Zidlicky has helped ease the load, particularly on the power play. Henrique has centered Kovalchuk and Zach Parise most of the year, giving the Devils two solid scoring lines. New Jersey needs them to be just as good come playoff time.

Panthers key stat: In games that ended in the overtime period, Florida held a 1-5 record. Though regular season overtime is 4-on-4, this is a troubling stat entering the post-season.

Devils key stat: If the Devils’ No. 1-ranked penalty kill can convert in the playoffs at its near-90 percent regular season success rate, then New Jersey has a good shot at upsetting even the favorites in the East.

Winner and why: The Panthers offense was carried mostly by its first line and depth has been an issue all season. This strategy will struggle against a Devils squad that allowed the second-fewest shots-against per game and is backed up by a legendary netminder. The Panthers have been trending in the wrong direction for a couple months. Devils in five.

How the Penguins win: As long as the stars stay healthy, no team can match the Penguins’ firepower. That said, the playoffs are about attrition, so depth will be the critical factor. Chicago had its studs for its 2010 run, but wouldn’t have won without its support players, as its drop in the standings the past two years has made apparent after the Hawks were forced to unload most of them.

How the Flyers win: If the vaunted offense rolls over its playoff opposition. Philadelphia was second overall in goals per game. Problem is, Eastern Conference foe Pittsburgh is No. 1 in that department, so the Flyers may get outgunned.

How the Penguins lose: An injury to one of the star centers makes it easier for the opposition to slow the others. And if Kris Letang goes down again, that leaves the bottom ‘D’ pairing vulnerable. If Marc-Andre Fleury needs first aid, kiss the Cup goodbye.

How the Flyers lose: If the calm and ‘Cool Bryz’ from after the all-star break is replaced by the befuddled Ilya Bryzgalov who started the season. The Russian enigma was great after the break, but he looked like the latest in a long line of Flyers’ busts in goal before his second-half surge.

Penguins question mark: As the Bruins proved last year, brawn can beat up skill and beat down will. Pittsburgh has Detroit-like team toughness, but whether it has enough sandpaper to withstand the physical punishment dished out by the big boys Broad Street will be judged in this series.

Flyers question mark: Rookies Matt Read, Sean Couturier, Brayden Schenn & Co. will be tested. The freshmen have been dynamite after Philly got a grand total of zero goals from rookies last season. The coaching staff has relied heavily on them to replace the goals provided by Mike Richards and Jeff Carter and will need that support to continue.

Penguins key stat: The thought of a possible Crosby-Malkin-Neal-Staal-Letang power play would weaken the knees of any opponent, but the Pens also boasted the third-best penalty kill in the league at 87.8 percent.

Flyers key stat: The Flyers’ 25-13-3 away record led the league. Maintaining their road warrior status will be critical in this series.

Winner and why: Even though the Pens have the edge in the above categories, this series is up in the air. The old rivalry has taken on new beginnings in recent weeks and is boiling as the most tantalizing first round matchup. Since this series is going to be tight, a bad penalty at the wrong time could end up being the difference. So, while both teams will want to establish physical dominance early and often, the line has to be walked with intelligence. Penguins in seven.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

How the Canucks win: No team in the league makes better use of time and space than the Canucks. Give the Sedin twins extra space to dangle and a bit of time, say two minutes at a time, and the result is a potent power play and one of the best offenses in the league. It all gets started in Vancouver’s zone with a group of D-men – every one adept at moving the puck.

How the Kings win: Despite numerous offensive weapons, the Kings crush teams with defense and netminding. Only St. Louis, Detroit and New Jersey surrendered fewer goals against and the Silver and Black are just as potent on the penalty kill. Veteran blueliners Rob Scuderi and Willie Mitchell lead the shutdown parade.

How the Canucks lose: Get a jump on them. The Canucks had a dismal .346 winning percentage when the opposition scored first. Problem is Vancouver is the league’s best team in the first period, outscoring the opposition by 35 goals.

How the Kings lose: In Anze Kopitar, Mike Richards, Simon Gagne and now Jeff Carter the team has some potent scorers. But for whatever reason, they all went cold this year. Kopitar seems to have sacrificed his offense for defense, while Gagne was derailed by injuries, helping make the L.A. attack downright woeful.

Canucks question mark: The Canucks are often lacking when it comes to pushback, both offensively when the opposition opens the scoring and physically. Vancouver couldn’t compete with Boston’s punishing style in last year’s final. Have they done enough to put more snarl in the lineup?

Kings question mark: Can Richards and Carter revive the magic they made together in Philadelphia? Carter was hampered by injuries in past playoff runs and is hurting right now, but Richards is a proven clutch player. The Kings haven’t won a series in more than a decade, but at least now they have experienced players to draw from.

Canucks key stat: The Canucks aren’t nearly as dominant offensively as they were last season, but maybe they’re saving energy for the post-season. Vancouver lost eight times in a 13-game stretch through mid-March, but there wasn’t much worry.

Kings key stat: The Kings had just 4.36 goals per game (for and against combined), which broke the modern-day record set by Anaheim in 2001-02 (4.55).

Winner and why: Stud Kings goalie Jonathan Quick may steal a game or two, but L.A. won’t score enough to keep pace over a full series. The Canucks are just too well-rounded, armed with multiple effective scoring lines and a deep blueline. Even if Daniel Sedin (concussion) isn’t ready to start the series, Vancouver finished the year 8-1 without him. Canucks in six.

How the Blues win: With due respect to the eerily similar Nashville Predators, the Blues are the stingiest team in the sport. Their young blueline, led by emerging star Alex Pietrangelo, is big, strong and deep. Factoring in David Backes and St. Louis’ stable of hulking forwards, this group is built to batter and bruise opponents.

How the Sharks win: The Sharks boast a nice arsenal of big, strong forwards who can hold onto the puck and exert pressure in the offensive zone. Not surprisingly, this possession game also strikes often on the power play, where the team has really clicked. Moving weapons such as Patrick Marleau and Logan Couture to different lines makes for tough matchups, too.

How the Blues lose: The tight-checking Blues lack a tried-and-true 40-goal man who’s a threat to score every time he touches the puck. They’ll have to win a lot of 2-1 games in the playoffs and that puts major pressure on their goaltending.

How the Sharks lose: When the big guns aren’t blazing, the Sharks are usually dead in the water. Joe Thornton doesn’t put up triple digits anymore and Marleau’s points pace has also fallen in recent years. A lack of scoring in the bottom six essentially makes San Jose a two-line team.

Blues question mark: Cup-winning coach Ken Hitchcock helps, as do wily vets Jason Arnott and Jamie Langenbrunner, but the Blues are still among the least-experienced playoff teams. Their top ‘D’ pairing of Pietrangelo and Carlo Colaiacovo have four playoff games between them, (all for Colaiacovo).

Sharks question mark: Has the window on this group of Sharks officially closed? Long considered contenders, the Fins have underachieved in the playoffs and if they don’t win this year, they’re facing an uncertain future. with several big contracts on the books. It’s hard to say what the team will look like when the cap looms overhead.

Blues key stat: St. Louis’ skaters deserve as much credit as its goalies do for holding opponents off the scoreboard. The Blues allowed a league-low 26.7 shots per game.

Sharks key stat: The Sharks own the best roster of faceoff men in the league. Five centers on the squad rank among the top 50 (Joe Pavelski has also played a lot of wing).

Winner and why: The Blues swept the season series 4-0, holding the Sharks to just three goals. Joe Thornton and company should struggle to get past Alex Pietrangelo and a Blues ‘D’ that simply doesn’t let pucks reach the net. The Blues’ home dominance is just one more reason to pick them. Blues in five.

How the Coyotes win: Befitting a team named Coyotes, Phoenix comes at you with a pack mentality. Though veterans Ray Whitney and Radim Vrbata lead the attack, you can find talent, size and grit on all four of the Dogs’ lines. Defense is the big show, however. The Yotes have one of the best goals-against averages around.

How the Blackhawks win: What the Hawks lack in depth, they make up in elite-level talent. If Joel Quenneville, a master line matcher, spreads Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Marian Hossa and Patrick Sharp across two lines, it creates matchup problems for even the stingiest of teams. Quenneville can also lean on Clydesdales Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook for 25-30 minutes a night in hopes of neutralizing opposing teams’ stars.

How the Coyotes lose: Though the team has options, its offense is pedestrian at best. Phoenix attacks as a pack because no elite scorers have announced themselves. When the Coyotes get behind early, they have one of the worst records in the league, no doubt due to a lack of go-to guys up front.

How the Blackhawks lose: Chicago’s 2.82 goals-against average is second-worst among the 16 playoff teams. Keith and Seabrook have been less perfect than normal, so blueline colleagues Niklas Hjalmarsson, Nick Leddy and Johnny Oduya must pick up the slack.

Coyotes question mark: There exists an urgency for a veteran team that has failed to win a playoff series since coming to the desert in 1996.

Blackhawks question mark: Fans and pundits alike will leap off the Hawks bandwagon if heart-and-soul captain Toews’ concussion keeps him out of the playoff run. Even if he returns in time, there’s no guarantee he won’t have a relapse of symptoms.

Coyotes key stat: Vrbata’s 12 game-winning goals were tops (tied with Steven Stamkos) in the NHL and twice as many as the next-highest Coyote. So if the team does need a player to be ‘The Man,’ look his way.

Blackhawks key stat: In a seven-game war with Vancouver last spring, Crawford posted a 2.21 GAA and .927 save percentage, establishing himself as a big-game goalie.

Winner and why: The Coyotes are equipped to finally win a series with home ice, great coaching from Dave Tippett and a hot goalie in Mike Smith. But while the Hawks aren’t what they were, their superior talent should win out. Whom would you rather depend on in a Game 7: Radim Vrbata or Patrick Kane? Keith Yandle or Duncan Keith? Blackhawks in seven.

How the Predators win: Few teams are as defensively sound as Nashville at every position. Shea Weber and Ryan Suter have surpassed Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook as the game’s premier shutdown ‘D’ tandem. The Preds are loaded with good two-way forwards, especially at center with coach’s favorites Mike Fisher, David Legwand and Paul Gaustad.

How the Red Wings win: The Red Wings are cohesive and experienced. They can ice two scoring units that function like No. 1 lines – Franzen-Datsyuk-Bertuzzi and Filppula- Zetterberg-Hudler. The shutdown ability of centers Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg is also a massive plus.

How the Predators lose: Nashville has trouble scoring. With no one even sniffing 30 goals or a point-per-game pace, the Preds have lacked a game-breaking offensive player for years. They struggled to generate chances, ranking 25th in shots per game.

How the Red Wings lose: The Wings haven’t reached Round 3 since ’09 and a big reason why is a lack of size and strength, especially up front. San Jose eliminated the Wings the past two seasons by bullying them. Detroit also surprisingly ranks in the league’s bottom half in both power play and penalty killing.

Predators question mark: Is there a bigger mystery than Alexander Radulov entering the playoffs? The Kontinental League sniper returned to honor his contract and gives the Predators the exact piece they need (see above). But will he disrupt team chemistry?

Red Wings question mark: Detroit’s core is talented, but long in the tooth and that’s reflected in the infirmary. Datsyuk (33), Johan Franzen (32) and legendary defenseman Nicklas Lidstrom (41) have all battled injuries and are major health risks for the rough-and-tumble playoffs.

Predators key stat: Despite their offensive struggles, Nashville had the league’s best power play at 21.6 percent. So why the lack of goals? Because they were 21st in penalties drawn.

Red Wings key stat: Detroit went 3-7-1 when Datsyuk was out of the lineup for knee surgery in February and March. The power play was just three for 44 (6.8 percent) without him.

Winner and why: Detroit won just seven of its final 22 games and struggled mightily on the road and on the power play all year. The Wings have the experience, depth and skill to put up a huge fight, but the bigger, tougher Preds will outmuscle them. Goaltender Pekka Rinne and the stellar ‘D’ pairing of Shea Weber and Ryan Suter will shine. Predators in seven.