Although it’s going to be very hot in the days ahead, certainly our warmest weather of the year and likely our first 100-degree day, of potentially more interest is the disturbance in the Gulf that could become Tropical Storm Debby in a day or two.

The Gulf disturbance continues to slowly develop as it moves north into the Gulf of Mexico. Even though the storm has encountered some wind shear, the National Hurricane Center now predicts there is a 90 percent chance this system will become a depression or, more likely, tropical storm within the next 48 hours.

From a satellite image this morning we can see that the system covers much of the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico. Note that these rain bands are believed to be primarily to the east of the storm’s center.

GOES-East satellite image. (NOAA)

An initial glance at some of the major forecast model tracks models from overnight does not reveal much insight about where the storm will go:

00Z dynamical model tracks. (NCAR)

We see that the models are split among three solutions: Florida, Louisiana and south Texas. Doesn’t tell us much, does it? However despite the confusion evident above I think we’re beginning to get a better handle on what is the most likely scenario.

Not shown above are the European and U.S. Navy models, which bring the system to south Texas and northern Mexico, respectively. If we consider that the GFDL and AVNO models above are from the same family of models, we can begin to see that most of the models are pointing toward an eventual western movement of this storm after a couple of days.

Under this scenario the storm could move north today and tomorrow, perhaps coming within 100 miles of New Orleans, before being pushed westward by high pressure.

It’s still possible the storm gets pulled over Florida, but this scenario now appears less likely than in recent days. Here’s the best-guess track from the forecasters at ImpactWeather:

7 a.m. CT forecast track. (ImpactWeather)

If the system does eventually move west, it would probably (but far from certainly) come ashore in the southern half of Texas or northern Mexico around Wednesday of next week. In such a scenario much of the Texas coast would begin to see squalls on Tuesday or so. Depending how far north the storm comes into Texas, the Houston area is likely to at least see some cloud cover and quite possibly some rain.

Should the storm go into Mexico or veer toward Florida expect high pressure to reign, and our days to remain very hot the entire week.

Ha-ha. Kittyg thinks the media makes up these storms to get attention. Maybe it is all smoke and mirrors, and they will get big fans and movie-style rainmakers to make us believe a storm really passes through. Wow, are we lucky to have someone like Kittyg to cut through all the haze!

Kitty does have a point. they do tend to hype things just a bit, like who will be the first on scene weatherman to find a water puddle to stand in while his producer shakes the bush behind him to simulate “gusting winds”

YES! We are down near Blessing which is 20 miles south of El Campo. Once all of the Katyites have evacuated, then we plan to drive up there if the storm looks like it will target anything between Corpus Christi and Galveston

Thanks Eric for sharing your analysis. NWS Austin-San Antonio is predicting the highs next week to be around 104 on Tuesday and Wednesday so a tropical disturbance would sure be welcomed here in the Hill Country.

Just a question – you give ImpactWeather a good deal of attention in your blog. Maybe it’s just an error of recency on my part but it seems like that attention has increased over at least the last hurricane season vs. other years.

Am I right about this? Why is that? They do good work and many companies use them as a private forecasting service, but just curious. Is it because they are local? Do their forecasts deserve heavier weighting for other reasons? Just wondering.

Thanks for the great work. This blog has helped make me a much more informed resident of SE Texas.

Good question, Chris. I work with ImpactWeather because I have found them to be darn good forecasters. They’re also a local company and they’re very helpful in the sense that they’ll talk things through with me so I understand what the knowns are and aren’t. Basically because of this working relationship my readers get access to some very sharp forecasters who, because they’re not constrained by practice (i.e. NHC only issues forecasts for active storms) can provide more information than is generally publicly available. One example of what I’m talking about: On Thursday afternoon the European model completely changed its forecast track, flopping to South Texas. For me this was an “oh (crap)!” moment in the sense that it totally changed the dynamic of my coverage as Texas was now seriously in play. But before running with this I reached out to IW to see if they were seeing and thinking the same thing. They were so I went with it.

In regard to this hurricane season, yes, I have some used some more content from them than in years past. But I think there’s been an awful lot of original content as well.

A view of the water vapor loop reveals a distinct cyclonic spin not too far into the Gulf pretty much due south of out area. I assume this is an upper low, but nowhere do I see mention of this feature in any weather discussion. Anyway, it certainly makes for an interesting Gulf loop with that cyclonic circulation and the cyclonic one trying to develop down to the surface southeast of New Orleans.

Same as ever…the weather gurus haven’t a clue. Why talk about it without some sort of idea? Because “Eye on the Gulf”, “Storm Tracker”, and “Doppler Radar” haven’t anything else to talk about, that’s why. Must get old saying “hot and humid with very little rain” for 5 months.

They’re called “scientists,” Rodger. They not magicians or soothsayers. Meteorology is not an exact science, but the weather scientists use models and input them with information that can predict with some accuracy the future of weather systems such as the one currently in the Gulf. Would you prefer that they get somebody like Jimmy the Greek to forecast for you?

I don’t know about Eric, but I saw a thunderstorm in the Gulf go to a TS then Hurricane in about 2 hours. It hit the Clear Lake area and I was hit by a tornado in my car at I-45 and the Friendswood exit. Not fun.

The storm you are speaking about, the name of which slips my mind, developed southwest of Galveston and went ashore as a hurricane, I believe, near the TX / LA border. But, your idea is correct: It is logged as the fastest storm to ever develop from practically nothing into a hurricane.

A TROPICAL DEPRESSION…OR
MORE LIKELY A TROPICAL STORM…COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT IF
THE DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE…
90 PERCENT…OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION
OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OVER THE WEEKEND…AND INTERESTS IN THIS
AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LOW. HEAVY
RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA…WESTERN CUBA…AND MUCH OF FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

ELSEWHERE…TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Yes the uncertainty in the models is intentional. It was developed and provided to the National Hurricane Center by Walmart, Kroger and Lowes and is thus called the WKL 120 hour model. It allows people in every Gulf state to feel vulnerable to every tropical storm and rush to the store to buy lots of everything ‘just in case’!

I KNEW it! If this system makes a hard left, it’s clearly a socialist plot by Florida Democrat Debbie Wasserman Schultz to wreak havoc on red state Texas. First they soaked us with taxes, now they’re going to soak our gunpowder!

That’s the headline this morning. Then I read the article and it’s talking about heading to south Texas or Mexico. I guess “this way” means East? I realize the Chronicle is trying to sensationalize the story, but a little more accurate headline would be nice. Then again, I fell for it so I guess the online editors are happy.

I love how the local media always claims this as ‘our’ storm fairly far in advance. Well, even though it sure looks like its knocking on florida’s door, we could use the rain since the media says its heading this way.

I’m not sure if I believe the prediction from impact weather since they said to take a storm in the gulf “with a grain of salt”. Perhaps we should pay closer attention to the Canadian model since it seems like it has been more accurate in this instance. I viewed that forecast model a few minutes ago and it looks like a distrubance is happening in Canada that will steer Debbie to Louisiana or Mississippi. Since I’m not a meterologist or even pretend that I totally understand the weather maps and models, I was wondering if I am viweing that one correctly?

Dear Cosmo,
In the latest update from Sciguy it states that the Canadian model has the storm going towards Louisiana and Mississippi. I guess I know how to read a map afterall!
Sincerely,
Not a pretender but the real thing

The upper lower just south of Galveston is really screwing up convection development in Debby’s western semi-circle. I guess that once this low moves away or dissipates then Debby will develop more convection on her northwestern and western side. Well, maybe well get some more beneficial rain from this tropical system.