A Centrica gas rig in the Morecambe Bay field in the Irish Sea - the company may not re-open it after a closure for maintenance. Photograph: Christopher Thomond for the Guardian

It was hardly a humdinger of a warning from Centrica. Profits will rise this year at a "more modest rate" than anticipated because of the rise in the rate of taxation on North Sea production. That might mean 26p a share of earnings rather than the 27p the City had expected – hardly a disaster. The Treasury might reflect that Centrica and others should stop whining about the budget measure.

But that would be a mistake. Centrica, which had warned that it may not reopen its Morecambe Bay gas field after a four-week closure for maintenance, also said that it would trim its planned investment in UK North Sea fields. The option of developing Norwegian or Dutch fields now looks more attractive.

Of course, it suits Centrica to make such points. But the company has a strong argument that the economics of oil and gas production are very different. It looks as if George Osborne failed to appreciate how, for gas producers, the investment case for the UK has become tight. One suspects a U-turn, maybe dressed up as a change to tax reliefs on investment in gas, will follow once the political smoke has cleared.