As season is fast approaching I can't help but wonder what it will be like. In my book it can't too last years season as it was the best I have seen. We all saw the reports from DU and DW saying duck numbers were down from last year too. Although it may not top last year I still predict a good season.

I've learned to not make predictions because they are always wrong for somebody, somewhere, and I'm going to hear about it. What I know is:

1) Just like this thread in only 5 posts regarding last year's hunting: some of us will have the best season and some of us will have the worst season in many, many years.

2) The vast majority of us will have a season somewhere in between.

3) There will almost certainly be memorable moments regardless of the quality of the hunting.

4) Hunting reports, especially on the internet or phone calls to my office, will generally be poor.

I have to write a report each February for the Mississippi Flyway Council detailing the habitat conditions, aerial survey results, mottled duck/wood duck/BBWD banding, and reported waterfowl hunting success in Louisiana. A few years ago, the Flyway Secretary asked everyone in February whether harvest in their states would be "Better", "Worse", or "Same" as the previous season, and then compared the prediction with the actual harvest data.

Can you guess the results?

The first year, 10 of 14 state waterfowl biologists (including me) were wrong, and they all under-estimated statewide harvest. I did it again last year, when I predicted harvest would be down markedly from 2011, but it was pretty much the same (down 2%). Maybe the increase in hunters with lower per-hunter success caused me to predict low.