Participation in postsecondary education has increased in recent
years (U.S. Department of Education 2004, indicator 6). However, since
students' postsecondary curricular choices are based in part on
labor market demand (Fiorito and Dauffenbach 1982) and this demand
typically varies across occupations, not all areas of postsecondary
education are likely to increase at the same rate. This Issue Brief
examines trends in awarded credentials in career-related areas of study
at the subbaccalaureate and baccalaureate levels over a 16-year time
period, from 1984-85 to 2000-01. (1)

The data used in this Issue Brief are from the Completions Survey
of the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) Integrated
Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) and its predecessor, the
Higher Education General Information Survey (HEGIS). Both IPEDS and
HEGIS are annual universe data collections of postsecondary
institutions. (2) The credential counts in these completions files are
categorized here by level, as subbaccalaureate (postsecondary
certificates and associate's degrees) and baccalaureate
(bachelor's degrees), and by curricular area, based on whether the
credential is in an academic field (the traditional liberal arts and
sciences) or a career field (occupationally related areas such as
engineering, education, and health care). (3)

Overall Trends

Consistent with trends in enrollments, the number of undergraduate
credential awards increased from about 1,600,000 in 1984-85 to about
2,100,000 in 2000-01. Awards increased in number in both academic and
career areas, at both the subbaccalaureate and baccalaureate levels
(figure 1). These increases occurred in spite of a decline in the young
adult population over the same time period. (4) Thus, both academic and
career areas appear to be attracting more students in 2000-01 than they
did in 1984-85.

Although career education grew in size over this time period, it
grew at a slower pace than academic education, so that career education
produced a smaller, but still a majority, proportion of undergraduate
credentials in 2000-01 than in 1984-85; at the baccalaureate level, the
decline was from 66 to 60 percent, and at the subbaccalaureate level,
from 78 to 71 percent (table 1). (5) The fact that this decline occurred
at both credential levels suggests that these shifts may in part reflect
larger trends in labor market demand that affect both levels of
education. Trends in specific areas of study, discussed below, further
support this notion.

In spite of career education's declining share of
subbaccalaureate credentials from 1984-85 to 2000-01, 6 of the 11 career
areas of study increased as a proportion of subbaccalaureate credentials
over this period: computer science; protective services; health care;
consumer and personal services; trade and industry; and public, social,
and human services (table 1). Two additional
areas--communications/design and education--held relatively steady at
about 1 percent of subbaccalaureate awards in each year. Three areas of
career education declined as a proportion of subbaccalaureate
credentials--agriculture/natural resources, engineering/architectural
sciences, and business/marketing--with most of the decline coming from
the latter two career areas. As a result of these shifts, health care
replaced business/marketing as the most common career credential at the
subbaccalaurate level by 2000-01.

Some career areas of study also became a larger part of the
baccalaureate credential pool from 1984-85 to 2000-01 (table 1). These
career areas were communications/design; consumer and personal services;
protective services; and public, social, and human services. Declines at
this level were also largest in business/marketing and
engineering/architectural sciences. However, business/marketing remained
the predominant baccalaureate career credential, accounting for over 20
percent of bachelor's degrees in both 1984-85 and 2000-01.

Trends in Career Areas Across Education Levels

This section compares the direction of change in specific career
areas across education levels. Specifically, the section examines
whether each career area decreased as a proportion of credentials,
increased, or had negligible change, with the latter including change of
less than [+ or -]1 percentage point. As seen in table 2, using this
1-percentage-point cutoff, the direction of change was similar at both
the subbaccalaureate and baccalaureate levels in agriculture/natural
resources; business/marketing; communications/design; consumer and
personal services; education; engineering/architectural sciences; and
public, social, and human services. These parallel changes suggest
similar labor market trends at both levels in these career areas. But
differing trends occurred in other career areas. For example, computer
science, health care, protective services, and trade and industry
increased more at the subbaccalaureate level than at the baccalaureate
level. In these career areas, the trend in credentials suggests a more
rapidly growing market for skills at the subbaccalaureate rather than
baccalaureate level.

Summary

The number of students receiving undergraduate credentials
increased from 1984-85 to 2000-01 in both career education and academic
education. Although career education became a smaller share of
undergraduate credentials over this period, most of this shift was due
to relatively large declines in two of the more common areas of study
(business/marketing and engineering/architectural sciences). Other
career areas (e.g., protective services, consumer and personal services)
became a larger proportion of undergraduate credentials. Finally, the
direction of change at the subbaccalaureate and baccalaureate levels was
sometimes similar (e.g., agriculture/natural resources,
engineering/architectural science), suggesting parallel changes in skill
demands in some areas of the labor market at the subbaccalaureate and
baccalaureate levels, while in other areas trends differed (e.g.,
computer science, health care), suggesting different subbaccalaureate
and baccalaureate labor markets.

U.S. Bureau of the Census. (1985). Statistical Abstract of the
United States: 1986. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Commerce.

U.S. Bureau of the Census. (2003). Statistical Abstract of the
United States: 2003. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Commerce.

U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education
Statistics. (2004). The Condition of Education 2004 (NCES 2004-077).
Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.

Footnotes

(1) Completions data prior to 1984-85 were not used because those
data are not comparable to more recent years. At the time of analysis,
2000-01 data were the most recent available.

(2) The statistics reported here were derived from published IPEDS
and HEGIS data in 15 editions (1988 to 2002) of the NCES annual
publication Digest of Education Statistics. Although IPEDS includes
less-than-4-year institutions that are excluded from HEGIS, a separate
analysis (not reported here) of certificate awards showed no appreciable effect of the change from HEGIS to IPEDS.

(3) These program areas are discussed in more detail in a previous
Issue Brief (Hudson and Shafer 2004). Due to low counts in some career
areas at the baccalaureate level, some recategorizations were made here.
First, "law and legal studies" was merged into the
"public, social, and human services" category. Second,
"consumer and personal services" was included in the published
baccalaureate data under "business." Similarly,
"mechanics and repair" and "construction" was
included in the published baccalaureate data under
"engineering-related technologies," rather than under
"trade and industry."

(4) The resident population ages 18-24 declined from 29 million in
1984 to 27 million in 2000 (U.S. Bureau of the Census 1985, 2003).

(5) From here on, the Issue Brief compares findings for 1984-85 and
2000-01. These findings are substantiated by annual data over the entire
time period. However, due to nonlinearity in the trends over time,
different findings could result from analyses of different time periods.
For figures showing the annual trends from 1984-85 to 2000-01, see
http://nces.ed.gov/pubsearch/pubsinfo.asp?pubid=2005012.