*Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

+ Forecast Outlook: CONSON (BASYANG) is expected to resume tracking WNW to NW-ward across the South China Sea and into the Gulf of Tonkin for the next 3 days...will now make landfall over Hainan Island (China) tomorrow noontime between 11AM-12PM [8AM JUL 16: 18.2N 110.9E - 95kph]. The 2 to 3-Day Medium-Range Forecast shows the system entering the Gulf of Tonkin late tomorrow night after crossing Hainan [8PM JUL 16: 19.4N 109.3E - 75kph] -- and will make it final landfall along the coast of Northern Vietnam before noon on Saturday [8AM JUL 17: 20.7N 107.9E - 75kph]. It shall dissipate rapidly overland (Northern Vietnam) on Sunday [8AM JUL 18: 22.7N 106.0E - 35kph]. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

+ Effects & Hazards: CONSON's (BASYANG) rain bands remains over the South China Sea, not yet affecting any land areas. However, its outer rain bands is expected to reach Eastern Vietnam later today, and over Hainan tonight. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light, moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along the outer and inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 180 mm (moderate-heavy) near the center of CONSON. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 1 to 4 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Southern Tagalog Provinces, Western Luzon, and Manila Bay. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge.

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8AM (00 GMT) THU 15 JULY POSITION: 16.3N 115.1E.*DESPITE HIGH (>30 KNOTS) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (VWS), TS 03W HAS MAINTAINED AN INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS OVER THEPAST 12 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL 142210Z 85 GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE PASS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, WITH MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY VWS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN CHINA. THERE IS DECREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE POSITION BASED ON THE POORER RESOLUTION AMSU IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD...(more)