000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250908
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
506 UTC Sat May 25 2019
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
...Gulf of California Gale Warning...
A cold front will approach Baja California Norte today, helping
to strengthen SW gap winds across the northern Gulf of
California. Strong winds will prevail tonight through Sun night
north of 29.5N, with a brief period of gale force winds expected
late tonight into Sun morning. Winds will shift to NW to N behind
the front early Mon before the front weakens. Wind speeds will
then diminish over the Gulf through mid week.
...Heavy Rainfall Over Central America...
A large cyclonic gyre that is typical for this time of the year,
called a Central American Gyre, will continue bringing abundant
moisture and heavy rainfall across portions of Central America
during the next few days. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides will be possible in areas of mountainous terrain.
Please refer to your local meteorological service for more
details.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 13.5N93W to 07.5N119W.
The ITCZ continues from 07.5N119W to 07.5N127W to beyond
07N140W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is
noted N of 10N between 87W and 92W, and N of 13N between 92W and
97W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from
06N to 10N between 100W and 115W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted within 120 nm N of the ITCZ W of 132W.
...DISCUSSION...
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see special features section above for more on the
upcoming gale event over the northern Gulf of California.
Overnight ASCAT pass indicates light to gentle winds prevail
across the open forecast waters. Seas off the Baja California
peninsula are in the 6-8 ft range, and 5-7 ft over the remainder
of the open waters off the coast of Mexico. Light and variable
winds, and seas of 2 ft or less, prevail across the Gulf of
California.
Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh to strong northerly winds will pulse
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region late tonight into early
Sun. Seas will build to 8-9 ft by early Sun morning before
subsiding below 8 ft by Sun evening.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Please read the Special Features section for more information
about the Central American Gyre, which will continue to bring
heavy rain to parts of Central America and the adjacent offshore
waters.
Light to gentle SW winds prevail S of the monsoon trough, with
seas in the 5-7 ft range. Light to gentle winds, and seas in the
5-6 ft range prevail N of the monsoon trough. Low pres embedded
within the broad gyre will meander offshore the coast of Central
America the next couple of days. The monsoon trough will lift
northward through the early part of the week, with southerly
monsoon flow will strengthening. Seas will build to 8-12 ft by
mid week in this enhanced monsoon flow.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Overnight altimeter pass indicates seas of 8 ft or greater covers
much of the forecast waters N of 20N in a broad mix of swell. SW
swell is covering the forecast waters S of 13N between 94W and
115W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the forecast
waters.
Another set of SW swell will enter the southern waters on Sun
and propagate northward through mid week. This will result in a
large area of seas 8 ft or greater south of 11N between 90W and
125W by Tue.
$$
AL