Socialists slipping in latest European election polls

The Socialists and Democrats (S&D) group, the centre-left grouping in the European Parliament, is losing its early lead in opinion polls according to a new forecast issued by the European Parliament.

The forecast, conducted for the Parliament by TNS Opinion, predicts that the centre-right EPP will be the largest group in the next European Parliament with 219 seats. The S&D group would come second with 204 seats.

The forecast shows a poorer performance for the Left in general than predicted by other recent forecasts. The far-left GUE group would have 51 seats according to the prediction, putting it in fourth place behind the ALDE group of liberals with 61 seats.

TNS has been tracking opinion polls since 3 February, and the forecast looks at data up to 13 March. Though opinion polls showed S&D in the lead or tied with the EPP until 3 March, the Socialists saw a dramatic drop after that date.

The projection is based on the averages of the latest two or three polls available in each member state. When the calculation of the average is not possible, only the last European or national available poll is taken into account. The list of polls will be updated by the Parliament every Thursday.