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The pricing of natural gas on a parity with crude oil has become an important issue in the international energy market. A prime example of the hostility that can arise over this issue is the ongoing argument between the US and Algeria over the price of SONATRACH's LNG exports to El Paso Co. Because LNG shipping and regasification costs add substantially to its delivered (c.i.f.) cost, price parity at the point of export (f.o.b.) would put LNG's price far above that of crude oil or natural gas. Other LNG exporters, such as Indonesia and Libya, seem to be adopting Algeria's pricing stance. Most European LNG customers believe that if f.o.b. price parity - or even some of the c.i.f. price-calculation methods - becomes the established formula, LNG will be priced out of many industrial markets. Without the big contracts from industry, existing LNG projects might not be economical.

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In early 1980 Algeria demanded a 200% increase in the price of its liquefied natural gas. When the US company involved refused to pay this price, Algeria stopped LNG deliveries. The Energy Department, which is now the primary US negotiator with Algeria, says it will not agree to the price demand. If it did Canada and Mexico, at least in the long run, would probably request equivalent prices for their gas. If their price requests were met, US natural gasimport bills, at present import levels, would increase by about 79%, or $3.5 billion. However, as the prices increased, demand for importedgas would probably drop substantially. GAO does not believe importing large amounts of LNG from OPEC countries is in the national interest. LNG imports generally trade oil dependence for gas dependence. It makes little sense to increase US dependence on gas at a time when extraordinary steps are being taken to reduce dependence on oil. Current indications are, however, that not many more proposals for LNG from OPEC countries will be forthcoming in the next few years.

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4 of 26 4 of 26 Notes: Spot wellhead prices last summer averaged well over $4.00 per thousand cubic feet during a normally low-price season. During the fall, these prices stayed above $5.00 per thousand cubic feet, more than double the year-ago average price. In January, the spot wellhead price averaged a record $8.98 per thousand cubic feet. Spot prices at the wellhead have never been this high for such a prolonged period. The chief reason for these sustained high gasprices was, and still is, uneasiness about the supply situation. Concern about the adequacy of winter supplies loomed throughout most of the summer and fall as storage levels remained significantly depressed. Last December, the most severe assumptions about low storage levels became real, when the spot price

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This report presents the results of comprehensive calculations of ceiling and floor prices for natural gas. Ceiling prices are set by the price levels at which it is more economic to switch from natural gas to residual fuel oil in steam units and to distillate in combined cycle units. Switching to distillate is very rare, whereas switching to fuel oil is quite common, varying between winter and summer and increasing when natural gasprices are high or oil prices low. Monthly fuel use was examined for 89 ...

PricesPricesPrices U.S. and State prices for wellhead, imports, exports, citygate, and end-use sectors. Percentages of total volume delivered by sector. (monthly, annual). Residential and Commercial Prices by Local Distributors and Marketers Average price of natural gas delivered to residential and commercial consumers by local distribution companies and marketers, and the percent sold by local distribution companies in selected states and DC (annual). Spot and Futures Prices Henry Hub natural gas spot price and New York Mercantile Exchange futures contract prices for natural gas based on delivery at the Henry Hub in Louisiana (daily, weekly, monthly, annual). Natural Gas Weekly Update Analysis of current price, supply, and storage data; and a weather snapshot.

6 6 Notes: On top of the usual factors impacting gasoline prices, natural gas has had some influence recently. MTBE is an oxygenate used in most of the RFG consumed in the U.S. Generally, it follows gasoline prices and its own supply/demand balance factors. But this winter, we saw it respond strongly to natural gasprices. MTBE is made from methanol and isobutylene, which in turn come from methane and butane. Both methane and butane come from natural gas streams. Until this year, the price of natural gas has been so low that it had little effect. But the surge that occurred in December and January pulled MTBE up . Keep in mind that about 11% MTBE is used in a gallon of RFG, so a 30 cent increase in MTBE is only about a 3 cent increase in the price of RFG. While we look ahead at this summer, natural gasprices should be

PricesPrices 2010 Peaks, Plans and (Persnickety) Prices This presentation provides information about EIA's estimates of working gas peak storage capacity, and the development of the natural gas storage industry. Natural gas shale and the need for high deliverability storage are identified as key drivers in natural gas storage capacity development. The presentation also provides estimates of planned storage facilities through 2012. Categories: Prices, Storage (Released, 10/28/2010, ppt format) Natural Gas Year-In-Review 2009 This is a special report that provides an overview of the natural gas industry and markets in 2009 with special focus on the first complete set of supply and disposition data for 2009 from the Energy Information Administration. Topics discussed include natural gas end-use consumption trends, offshore and onshore production, imports and exports of pipeline and liquefied natural gas, and above-average storage inventories. Categories: Prices, Production, Consumption, Imports/Exports & Pipelines, Storage (Released, 7/9/2010, Html format)

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Important Terms Important Terms PETROLEUM PRICES Refiner acquisition cost of crude oil (RAC): The average monthly cost of crude oil to U.S. refiners, including transportation and fees. The composite cost is the weighted average of domestic and imported crude oil costs. Typically, the imported RAC is about $1.50 per barrel below the monthly average spot price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and is within about $0.20 per barrel of the average monthly spot price of Brent crude oil. Unless otherwise stated, the imported RAC is what is referred to in this report as the 'world oil price" or "average crude oil price." Retail motor gasoline prices: The average pump prices for gasoline reported in the Short-term Energy Outlook are derived from the Energy Information

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This paper aims to analyze the effects deriving from the liberalization process in the Italian natural gas market carried out by the Italian government through the legislative decree n. 164/2000. More specifically, the objective is to analyze the competitiveness ... Keywords: Italian gas market liberalization, importgasprices, linear regression analysis, natural gas retail prices

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7 of 17 7 of 17 Notes: Despite signs that domestic natural gas production has begun to turn around (the Texas Railroad Commission now reports year-to-date (through Sep.) gains in Texas gas production of 1.2 percent, compared to a 4.7-percent decline for the same months in 1999 versus 1998) the reality of the U.S. gas market is that supply responses have been too little, too late to prevent record-high spot prices and prospects for very high average prices this winter. We now expect to see peak monthly spot wellhead prices this winter of over $6.00 per thousand cubic feet (mcf) (December). Last month we maintained confidence that conditions would improve enough to keep the $5.10 per mcf recorded in October as the peak for this heating season. With partial data available, a monthly average value of about $5.60 per mcf looks likely for

Against the backdrop of increasingly volatile natural gasprices, renewable energy resources, which by their nature are immune to natural gas fuel price risk, provide a real economic benefit. Unlike many contracts for natural gas-fired generation, renewable generation is typically sold under fixed-price contracts. Assuming that electricity consumers value long-term price stability, a utility or other retail electricity supplier that is looking to expand its resource portfolio (or a policymaker interested in evaluating different resource options) should therefore compare the cost of fixed-price renewable generation to the hedged or guaranteed cost of new natural gas-fired generation, rather than to projected costs based on uncertain gasprice forecasts. To do otherwise would be to compare apples to oranges: by their nature, renewable resources carry no natural gas fuel price risk, and if the market values that attribute, then the most appropriate comparison is to the hedged cost of natural gas-fired generation. Nonetheless, utilities and others often compare the costs of renewable to gas-fired generation using as their fuel price input long-term gasprice forecasts that are inherently uncertain, rather than long-term natural gas forward prices that can actually be locked in. This practice raises the critical question of how these two price streams compare. If they are similar, then one might conclude that forecast-based modeling and planning exercises are in fact approximating an apples-to-apples comparison, and no further consideration is necessary. If, however, natural gas forward prices systematically differ from price forecasts, then the use of such forecasts in planning and modeling exercises will yield results that are biased in favor of either renewable (if forwards forecasts). In this report we compare the cost of hedging natural gasprice risk through traditional gas-based hedging instruments (e.g., futures, swaps, and fixed-price physical supply contracts) to contemporaneous forecasts of spot natural gasprices, with the purpose of identifying any systematic differences between the two. Although our data set is quite limited, we find that over the past three years, forward gasprices for durations of 2-10 years have been considerably higher than most natural gas spot price forecasts, including the reference case forecasts developed by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This difference is striking, and implies that resource planning and modeling exercises based on these forecasts over the past three years have yielded results that are biased in favor of gas-fired generation (again, presuming that long-term stability is desirable). As discussed later, these findings have important ramifications for resource planners, energy modelers, and policy-makers.

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anticipated future growth in imported natural gas, reducing natural gasprices may well enhance social welfareEasing the Natural Gas Crisis: Reducing Natural GasPrices Through Electricity Supply on the findings of a recent study that I helped manage and conduct, a study titled "Easing the Natural Gas Crisis

Major analysis completed recently by the gas transmission and distribution industry concludes that available supplies of gas energy will fall into the range of 23-31 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) by the year 2000, as conventional gas production is increasingly supplemented by supplies from coal gasification, Alaska, unconventional sources, LNG, Canada, and Mexico. At the same time, however, gas demand is characterized by price-induced conservation in all markets, together with continuing gas demand constraints and financial burdens imposed by Government regulators at all levels. With these restrictions and burdens eased, the gas industry can rebuild its marketing acumen and capacity. Thus, gas demand may likely increase in both the traditional heating and industrial fuel and feedstock applications, as well as such new non-traditional uses as cogeneration, natural gas vehicles and select gas use with coal. With regard to impending gasprice decontrol, analyses conducted by the American Gas Association (A.G.A.), as well as studies by the U.S. Department of Energy and other groups, concur in the important finding that natural gas will be able to compete with alternate fuels in the energy marketplace after decontrol, as long as indefinite price escalators and other rigidities in gas purchase contracts can be defused so as to enable the market system to operate successfully. A.G.A.'s analysis, indeed, concluded that gasprices are rising rapidly enough under the existing law between now and 1985, so that concerns of a sudden price increase after deregulation in that year may be somewhat overstated, as long as the indefinite price escalators are defused.

Canada's new gas export pricing policy is discussed. Under the revised natural gas export policy, Canadian exporters will be free to either negotiate the pricing of exports with their US customers or to retain the existing two-tiered pricing system. The new policy is an attempt to stabilize exports in the short term and provide increased sales opportunities over the medium and long terms.

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The Office of Natural Gas and Petroleum Import and Export Activities prepares quarterly reports showing natural gasimport and export activity. Companies are required to file quarterly reports. Attachments show the percentage of takes to maximum firm contract levels and the weighted average per unit price for each of the long-term importers during the 5 most recent reporting quarters, volumes and prices of gas purchased by long-term importers and exporters during the past 12 months, volume and price data for gasimported on a short-term or spot market basis, and the gas exported on a short-term or spot market basis to Canada and Mexico.

The Office of Natural Gas and Petroleum Import and Export Activities prepares quarterly reports showing natural gasimport and export activity. Companies are required to file quarterly reports. Attachments show the percentage of takes to maximum firm contract levels and the weighted average per unit price for each of the long-term importers during the 5 most recent quarters, volumes and prices of gas purchased by long-term importers and exporters during the past 12 months, volume and price data for gasimported on a short-term or spot market basis, and the gas exported on a short-term or spot market basis to Canada and Mexico.

The Office of Fuels Programs prepares quarterly reports summarizing the data provided by companies authorized to import or export natural gas. Companies are required, as a condition of their authorizations, to file quarterly reports with the OFP. This quarter`s focus is market penetration of gasimports into New England. Attachments show the following: % takes to maximum firm contract levels and weighted average per unit price for the long-term importers, volumes and prices of gas purchased by long-term importers and exporters, volumes and prices for gasimported on short-term or spot market basis, and gas exported short-term to Canada and Mexico.

The Office of Natural Gas and Petroleum Import and Export Activities prepares quarterly reports showing natural gasimport and export activity. Companies are required to file quarterly reports. Attachments show the percentage of takes to maximum firm contract levels and the weighted average per unit price for each of the long-term importers during the five most recent quarters, volumes and prices of gas purchased by long-term importers and exporters during the past 12 months, volume and price data for gasimported on a short-term or spot market basis, and the gas exported on a short-term or spot market basis to Canada and Mexico.

Against the backdrop of increasingly volatile natural gasprices, renewable energy resources, which by their nature are immune to natural gas fuel price risk, provide a real economic benefit. Unlike many contracts for natural gas-fired generation, renewable generation is typically sold under fixed-price contracts. Assuming that electricity consumers value long-term price stability, a utility or other retail electricity supplier that is looking to expand its resource portfolio (or a policymaker interested in evaluating different resource options) should therefore compare the cost of fixed-price renewable generation to the hedged or guaranteed cost of new natural gas-fired generation, rather than to projected costs based on uncertain gasprice forecasts. To do otherwise would be to compare apples to oranges: by their nature, renewable resources carry no natural gas fuel price risk, and if the market values that attribute, then the most appropriate comparison is to the hedged cost of natural gas-fired generation. Nonetheless, utilities and others often compare the costs of renewable to gas-fired generation using as their fuel price input long-term gasprice forecasts that are inherently uncertain, rather than long-term natural gas forward prices that can actually be locked in. This practice raises the critical question of how these two price streams compare. If they are similar, then one might conclude that forecast-based modeling and planning exercises are in fact approximating an apples-to-apples comparison, and no further consideration is necessary. If, however, natural gas forward prices systematically differ from price forecasts, then the use of such forecasts in planning and modeling exercises will yield results that are biased in favor of either renewable (if forwards < forecasts) or natural gas-fired generation (if forwards > forecasts). In this report we compare the cost of hedging natural gasprice risk through traditional gas-based hedging instruments (e.g., futures, swaps, and fixed-price physical supply contracts) to contemporaneous forecasts of spot natural gasprices, with the purpose of identifying any systematic differences between the two. Although our data set is quite limited, we find that over the past three years, forward gasprices for durations of 2-10 years have been considerably higher than most natural gas spot price forecasts, including the reference case forecasts developed by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This difference is striking, and implies that resource planning and modeling exercises based on these forecasts over the past three years have yielded results that are biased in favor of gas-fired generation (again, presuming that long-term stability is desirable). As discussed later, these findings have important ramifications for resource planners, energy modelers, and policy-makers.

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5 5 Notes: Major regulatory reforms at the Federal level began at the end of the 1970s with the passage of the Natural Gas Policy Act, and have affected most phases of the industry and markets Over time the movement to a more competitive model led to lower prices starting around 1983, which was accentuated by the drop in world oil prices in 1986 Gas consumers in all sectors seem to have benefited, on average, from a more competitive marketplace However, several factors have come together recently that have pushed spot gasprices up sharply and which are expected to reverse the downward trend in in real gasprices for the next year or so: U.S. gas production has been relatively flat. Expected demand is high under normal weather assumptions. Gas storage levels are below normal.

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5 5 Notes: The recent surge in spot prices at the Henry Hub are well above a typical range for 1998-1999 (in this context, defined as the average, +/- 2 standard deviations). Past price surges have been of short duration. The possibility of a downward price adjustment before the end of next winter is a source of considerable risk for storage operators who acquire gas at recent elevated prices. Storage levels in the Lower 48 States were 7.5 percent below the 5-year average (1995-1999) by mid-August (August 11), although the differential is only 6.4 percent in the East, which depends most heavily on storage to meet peak demand. Low storage levels are attributable, at least in part, to poor price incentives: high current prices combined with only small price