Early voting in Texas off to slow start

Voters walk by political signs that line the street to the East Montgomery County Courthouse on the first day of Early Voting, Tuesday, Feb. 20, 2018, in New Caney.

Voters walk by political signs that line the street to the East Montgomery County Courthouse on the first day of Early Voting, Tuesday, Feb. 20, 2018, in New Caney.

Photo: Jason Fochtman, Staff Photographer / Houston Chronicle

Photo: Jason Fochtman, Staff Photographer / Houston Chronicle

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Voters walk by political signs that line the street to the East Montgomery County Courthouse on the first day of Early Voting, Tuesday, Feb. 20, 2018, in New Caney.

Voters walk by political signs that line the street to the East Montgomery County Courthouse on the first day of Early Voting, Tuesday, Feb. 20, 2018, in New Caney.

Photo: Jason Fochtman, Staff Photographer / Houston Chronicle

Early voting in Texas off to slow start

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Early voting is underway in Texas, but if the first day is any indication, the state once again is looking at an incredibly low turnout.

In Harris County, just 34,665 voters had voted early on Monday or through absentee ballots in the runoff primary elections that will decide which of two Democrats will take on Gov. Greg Abbott in the fall and decide who will represent parts of Houston in Congress for possibly years to come. Just 2,505 Republicans voted early on Monday, while just 2,059 Democrats voted in person.

Nearly 16,000 Democratic voters have used vote-by-mail, while about 14,000 Republicans have used vote-by-mail.

Harris County has more than 2.2 million registered voters.

Texas runoff elections traditionally have terrible turnout, said Robert Lowry, a University of Texas at Dallas political science professor. In the last mid-term election cycle in 2014, the runoff elections generated about half the turnout as in the primary elections, he said. In the March primaries, Texas had just a 17 percent turnout of the state’s 15.2 million voters.

Lowry said a big problem this year is that there are no statewide races for Republican primary voters. And for Democrats there is just one, the governor’s race between Lupe Valdez and Andrew White — two candidates who are still largely unfamiliar to a lot voters. It’s the first Democratic runoff election for governor in 28 years.

In the primary elections, if no candidate gets more than 50 percent of the vote, the top two vote-getters advance to a runoff election.

But the Houston area has two high-profile congressional race primaries that could boost turnout in pockets. In the race for the 2nd Congressional District, the winner of the GOP runoff between State Rep. Kevin Roberts and retired Navy SEAL Dan Crenshaw will advance to the November general election and immediately become a favorite to win that race. The 2nd District has been held by a Republican since 2004, and President Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton in the district by 9 percentage points in 2016.

For Democrats, the race for the 7th Congressional District has become one of the nation’s most competitive primaries between Lizzie Pannill Fletcher and Laura Moser. The winner of that race will advance to November to take on U.S. Rep. John Culberson, R-Houston, in a district both Republicans and Democrats expect to be one of the most competitive races in Texas.

Being the top vote-getter in the March 6 primary is no guarantee of future success, according to research by Texas Election Source, a nonpartisan group based in Austin that studies election data. Since 2002, they reviewed 144 races that included statewide races, legislative contests, state board of education seats and federal races such as ones for Congress. The data showed the highest vote-getter in March wins the runoff 61 percent of the time, but loses nearly 40 percent of the time.

“Even if a candidate is not the top vote-getter, there is a lot of opportunity to still win,” said Jeff Blaylock, publisher of the Texas Election Source.

One of the reasons for the traditionally low primary turnout is because of how early the voting begins. Texas’ March 6 primary election is the earliest primary election in the nation, giving candidates only a couple of months after Christmas to build up their campaigns and get out the vote.

Early voting runs from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. through Friday. Election Day for the runoff is on May 22. To find early voting locations in Harris County, visit www.HarrisVotes.com or call 713-755-6965.