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Drawing a causal link from an event to an outcome may make the outcome seem obvious and inevitable (Wasserman, Lempert, & Hastie, 1991)

Is causal reasoning one mechanism by which hindsight bias comes about?

Participants

150 Northeastern undergraduates

Procedure

Foresight condition

Read about Judged the likelihood

an event of two possible outcomes

Baseline condition

Read about Read about the Judged the likelihood of

an event actual outcome two possible outcomes

of the event as if the actual outcome was not known

Four Plausibility/ Relevance conditions

Read about Read about the Read an

an event actual outcome additional statement

of the event

Judged the likelihood of two possible outcomes,

as if the actual outcome was not known

Hutu-Tutsi Scenario:

Event: In 1952, the Hutu tribe and the Tutsi tribe began a relentless battle.

Actual Outcome: In this particular battle, the Hutus won.

Additional Statement (between Ss)

High Plausibility Low Plausibility

High

Relevance

Low

Relevance

Judge Possible Outcomes: A Hutu Win; A Hutu Loss

Experiment 1a Results

** p=.01

Findings in Experiment 1a may have been due to the mere presence of the additional statement, from which conditional probabilities are inferred, rather than causal information per se (e.g., a higher conditional probability of winning with superior troops than when traveling west)

Stimuli

Formerly High-Relevance, now Non-Causal (HRNC)

During the battle, the Hutus showed superior discipline with their troops, but historians who have studied this particular battle unanimously agree that this did not actually affect the battle; rather, they believe that no particular factor led to the Hutu win – it is just something that happened by chance.

Formerly Low-Relevance, now Causal (LRC)

The Hutus began the day by traveling west, and found that they were facing away from the brilliant sunrise that effectively blinded the oncoming Tutsis, thereby becoming an important element in allowing the Hutus to win the battle.

Participants

50 Northeastern undergraduates

Procedure

Identical to Experiment 1a

Experiment 1b Results

Materials & Method

Same as Experiment 1a, only the actual outcome was reversed (e.g., A Hutu Loss rather than A Hutu Win).

Participants

75 Northeastern undergraduates

Experiment 2 Results

*p<.05

*

Foresight

Discussion

Causal reasoning is one mechanism by which hindsight bias comes about

When a causal link can be made from the event to the outcome, the outcome seems inevitable and HB results (Wasserman et al., 1991)

High Plausibility and High Relevance aid in the construction of a causal link from the event to the outcome

However, a priori plausible relevance itself is not necessary for HB to occur; rather, making a possible causal connection is

When the causal link can be more easily constructed to the alternative outcome, reverse HB will occur

Further research is needed to determine any mediating factors of the causal reasoning process of HB

Logic

Increasing the ease of drawing this causal link should increase HB

We can accomplish this by adding a PLAUSIBLE and RELEVANT statement to the event (Wasserman et al., 1991)

Hindsight bias arises through a causal link from the event to the outcome, rather than from the mere presence of the additional statement