Proving the Singularity is On the Horizon

I will apologize in advance that this is a long post. Hopefully, I can make this in to a YouTube video and it will be short.

How do you prove something that has not happened? Math appears to be a logical course of action. However, that can go awry like the people who were convinced the world was going to end on May 16, 2011. Well, I went skydiving that day and I can tell you as a first-person eye-witness that as I fell to the Earth I did not see anyone ascend. Harold Camping; however, thought that he was backed firmly by numbers and mathematics in predicting the end of the world.

Of course, we should be clear that predicting the singularity is not the same thing as predicting the end of the world. The world you have known for your whole life is always ending moment by moment. It has nothing to do with end of the human species.

Things will change on the day of the singularity, but only faster than they happen today. The day of the singularity on that day will appear no different than the days before or the immediate days afterward; however, when dividing human history in to logical groupings for understanding there could well be a day that we could say, “This is the beginning of the singularity”.

The math used in this will be simple math. The model will have flaws, but it will still enable us to make predictions – even if the specific date might be different than our predicted date – it will definitely be within the ballpark.

We will track the inflationary increases to the costs of computers in present households.

Author’s household total computing costs including tablets and smart phones. ($15,644 including all mobile devices)

As inflation increases over time of about 3.5% per year – the costs a typical household that purchases these computers would increase. While it is true that PC hardware decreases in costs by about 16% per year, we are going by what the household is willing to pay in today’s dollars and what those today’s dollars will be in the future.

For the purposes of this estimation I am not including smart phones and tablets. This is potentially a source of error as tablet sales increase and traditional PC sales decrease; however, including the costs of tablets and smart phones could potentially throw the numbers in to a broad range of values that may not be representative of anything.

However; in order to include some trace of what the computing costs of tablets and smart phones in to the equation I have made a final group that includes the costs that the author has accumulated with his family of 6 (two adults and 4 children).

The household I live in I would consider to be middle-class. In #5, we include only the computers. This winds up to be $13,200 and including all of our cell phones, tablets, and our computers this goes up to $15,644. This isn’t the costs over the course of 1 year, but the three year investment cost in computing devices.

Here is a graph of the costs of computing for the above levels with additional cost for inflation over the years from 2011 to 2080.

Graph 1.

Graph 1 shows the different curves of the increasing prices of computing. As these follow inflation, the end costs are equivalent to today’s prices. This means that if a family of 6 spent $15,644 over the course of two or three years on computers, mobile phones, and tablets in 2011, this would be equivalent to $167,970 in 2080.

Ray Kurzweil uses a point in time when person computing power of $1,000 PC can afford the power to contain a human mind/simulated mind as the point for the singularity. This is a slight misrepresentation as long before home computers can host simulated human minds drastic changes in human society will likely occur.

For example as I mentioned in Part 2, Watson was created and beat the two Jeopardy champions. In essence, a computer of Watson’s capability can answer any question posed to it by any person – potentially in any language. There will be a long time before artificial brains (codops) or any AI system will be available in every household that Watson level computers will be available and owned and perhaps ubiquitous in homes across the world.

Imagine, any question you have, any question your child has in school can be answered by a device in your home. This is far beyond what the internet can do. The internet contains data. The internet can present data. Data requires analysis before it becomes information. Information is required before you can answer questions.

So, let’s add to our graph the cost of Watson’s hardware – declining as previously mentioned – at 16% per year. Yes, it is another rough estimate. More than the specific date when the lines intersect is the idea that these lines will intersect. The follow up idea that long before home computer affordability of Watson level computing comes the affordability of businesses and governments of Watson level computing and problem solving.

Graph 2.

You can see from the second graph that the inflation adjusted increasing costs of personal computing intersects with the declining costs (16% per year) of Watson’s hardware costs.

In fact if all of our assumptions are accurate (and there is a lot of room for problems) it appears that sometime in late 2036 or 2037 a middle income family that has 4 kids and lots of computers and mobile devices would be able to afford 1 Watson – if they choose not to buy any other new devices. Based on the data below you can see that in 2036 the inflation increasing costs of the family of 6 and all their computing devices will cost $36,971 compared to the declining cost of Watson costing about: $38,380.

Now it is important to differentiate – that the inflation increasing costs for all the home computers is based on what we are willing to spend today on computers and keeping that constant. The declining costs of Watson is based on the falling costs and increasing capabilities of computer hardware.

It is entirely possible, that the family of 6 might choose to spend less money by 16% per year on computing hardware and more on other products with their disposable income. However, based on people’s habits, the consumption of technology leads to more spending on technology, not less, over time. (I’ll need to support this with some data at a later point in time, so far this is just based on my personal observations).

In addition, computing takes many forms. For example, Siri does not exist on your Apple iPhone. Siri is a form of distributed computing where the consumer/end user does not bear the direct cost of the hardware and infrastructure, however, still benefits from Siri’s capabilities.

Continued in Part 4.

Base Data for Graph 1.

Year

Inflation

HC Low

HC Medium

HC High

HC Gamer

Author Home Computers

Author Home Computers and Mobile Devices

2011

500

1000

2500

5000

13200

15644

2012

0.035

518

1035

2588

5175

13662

16192

2013

0.035

536

1071

2678

5356

14140

16758

2014

0.035

554

1109

2772

5544

14635

17345

2015

0.035

574

1148

2869

5738

15147

17952

2016

0.035

594

1188

2969

5938

15677

18580

2017

0.035

615

1229

3073

6146

16226

19230

2018

0.035

636

1272

3181

6361

16794

19904

2019

0.035

658

1317

3292

6584

17382

20600

2020

0.035

681

1363

3407

6814

17990

21321

2021

0.035

705

1411

3526

7053

18620

22067

2022

0.035

730

1460

3650

7300

19272

22840

2023

0.035

756

1511

3778

7555

19946

23639

2024

0.035

782

1564

3910

7820

20644

24467

2025

0.035

809

1619

4047

8093

21367

25323

2026

0.035

838

1675

4188

8377

22115

26209

2027

0.035

867

1734

4335

8670

22889

27126

2028

0.035

897

1795

4487

8973

23690

28076

2029

0.035

929

1857

4644

9287

24519

29059

2030

0.035

961

1923

4806

9613

25377

30076

2031

0.035

995

1990

4974

9949

26265

31128

2032

0.035

1030

2059

5149

10297

27184

32218

2033

0.035

1066

2132

5329

10658

28136

33345

2034

0.035

1103

2206

5515

11031

29121

34512

2035

0.035

1142

2283

5708

11417

30140

35720

2036

0.035

1182

2363

5908

11816

31195

36971

2037

0.035

1223

2446

6115

12230

32287

38265

2038

0.035

1266

2532

6329

12658

33417

39604

2039

0.035

1310

2620

6550

13101

34586

40990

2040

0.035

1356

2712

6780

13559

35797

42425

2041

0.035

1403

2807

7017

14034

37050

43909

2042

0.035

1453

2905

7263

14525

38346

45446

2043

0.035

1503

3007

7517

15034

39689

47037

2044

0.035

1556

3112

7780

15560

41078

48683

2045

0.035

1610

3221

8052

16104

42515

50387

2046

0.035

1667

3334

8334

16668

44003

52151

2047

0.035

1725

3450

8626

17251

45544

53976

2048

0.035

1786

3571

8928

17855

47138

55865

2049

0.035

1848

3696

9240

18480

48787

57820

2050

0.035

1913

3825

9563

19127

50495

59844

2051

0.035

1980

3959

9898

19796

52262

61939

2052

0.035

2049

4098

10245

20489

54091

64107

2053

0.035

2121

4241

10603

21206

55985

66350

2054

0.035

2195

4390

10974

21949

57944

68672

2055

0.035

2272

4543

11358

22717

59972

71076

2056

0.035

2351

4702

11756

23512

62071

73564

2057

0.035

2433

4867

12167

24335

64244

76138

2058

0.035

2519

5037

12593

25186

66492

78803

2059

0.035

2607

5214

13034

26068

68819

81561

2060

0.035

2698

5396

13490

26980

71228

84416

2061

0.035

2792

5585

13962

27925

73721

87371

2062

0.035

2890

5780

14451

28902

76301

90429

2063

0.035

2991

5983

14957

29914

78972

93594

2064

0.035

3096

6192

15480

30961

81736

96869

2065

0.035

3204

6409

16022

32044

84597

100260

2066

0.035

3317

6633

16583

33166

87557

103769

2067

0.035

3433

6865

17163

34327

90622

107401

2068

0.035

3553

7106

17764

35528

93794

111160

2069

0.035

3677

7354

18386

36771

97077

115050

2070

0.035

3806

7612

19029

38058

100474

119077

2071

0.035

3939

7878

19695

39390

103991

123245

2072

0.035

4077

8154

20385

40769

107630

127558

2073

0.035

4220

8439

21098

42196

111398

132023

2074

0.035

4367

8735

21836

43673

115296

136644

2075

0.035

4520

9040

22601

45201

119332

141426

2076

0.035

4678

9357

23392

46784

123508

146376

2077

0.035

4842

9684

24210

48421

127831

151499

2078

0.035

5012

10023

25058

50116

132305

156802

2079

0.035

5187

10374

25935

51870

136936

162290

2080

0.035

5369

10737

26843

53685

141729

167970

Data for Graph 2 (additional column for data in Graph 1) – these are the initial cost of Watson (3 million as indicated on Wikipedia) declining by 16% per year.