Forex Forecast for USD, GBP, JPY and CHF for 05 – 09 September 2016

– as for
the forecast for EUR/USD, those 50% of experts, which reckoned that, for sure,
the pair would try to retest the bottom in the area of 1.1200, turned out to be
right. The indicators on H4, which pointed to the south (where the pair did
move early week), as well as the ones on D1, which predicted a sideways trend
(on Thursday the pair returned to the figures of Monday), turned out to be
right. Diverse data on the USA economy at the end of the week put in pie, and
thus the pair started to jig up and down, and eventually it wrapped up the week
at the level of 1.1150 – at that very area, where as far back as last June the
long-term sideways trend, keeping EUR/USD within the range of 1.0500 – 1.1500,
had started;

– with a
small tolerance, the forecast for GBP/USD may be deemed as 100% fulfilled. As
anticipated, first the pair went down – to the support of 1.3000, but when 50
points were left to reach it, the pair reversed and by the end of Friday it hit
the resistance of 1.3320, specified by the experts, approaching the upper
boundary of the sideways trend, alongside which it had been moving during the last
two months;

– giving
the forecast for USD/JPY for the week, the analysts indicated the level of 102.20
as the main resistance. As for the pair’s rise to the area of 105.00–107.00,
the pair was supposed to spend at least one to two months to do so. However, it
seemingly intends to do so much faster. At least, in the past week alone it
surged up by 250 points and, having broken through the resistance of 102.20, it
reached the high of 104.30;

– the
assumption that USD/CHF tended to continue the sideways movement turned out to
be correct – it finished the week at the same area, it had started from. As a
reminder, during the past few months the analysts reckoned that it would strive
to consolidate above the level of 0.9800. The pair made that very attempt once
again also last week. However “the shoot to the north” failed to be convincing,
and having got over just 85 points, the pair went back to the landmark level of
0.9800.

***

Forecast for the Upcoming Week:

Summing
up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker
companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and
graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

– EUR/USD.
The opinions of the analysts still differ – 40% of them believe that the pair
will go up – to the resistance of 1.1300. The remaining 60%, backed by the
indicators and the graphical analysis on Н4,
predict the pair’s fall first to the support of 1.1125 and then down to 1.1070.
Afterwards, in their view, for a while the pair will be moving in a horizontal
channel of 1.1000 – 1.1160 with the pivot level of 1.1070;

– clearly,
assessing the prospects for GBP/USD, most indicators (75%) point to the north.
As for the analysts, we may outline two scenarios. According to the first view
(held by 80% of experts and the graphical analysis on D1), the pair will try to
break through the resistance of 1.3370, and, once this happens, try to reach
the highs of July 15 and June 29 - 1.3480 and 1.3530, respectively. As for the
remaining 20% of analysts and the graphical analysis on H4, they believe that
first the pair should plunge to the pivot level of summer sideways channel in
the area of 1.3065. We’ll see which of these scenarios will play out early in
the week. With this, note that data on the EU economy, and in particular, the
ECB interest and deposit rates decision, may influence the change of the trend.
However the mega-regulator is expected to keep them on hold;

– giving
the forecast for USD/JPY, both the experts and the graphical analysis believe
that the pair will be able to get over the resistance within 104.00 – 104.50,
and it will have to move down to the support of 102.30. With this, the
graphical analysis on D1 reckons that during the month the pair can go further
down – to the level of 100.90;

– as to
the last pair of our review – USD/CHF, the forecast here has been without any
major changes for weeks – a gradual consolidation at the pivot level of 0.9800,
which can be clearly seen on D1 and W1 charts. The nearest support will be at
the levels of 0.9760 and 0.9735. The resistance will be at 0.9840, 0.9885,
0.9955. With this, if indicators on H4 take a neutral position, then the ones
on D1 point up, reflecting the prevalence of bullish trends. The upcoming most
significant events worth noting are release of GDP data fromSwitzerland on Tuesday and data on unemployment rate
– on Friday.

Notice: These materials should not
be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on
financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on
financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.