The heat in Ann Arbor has nearly reached the fiery furnaces of hell and it seems most Michigan fans think that’s where the football program is at this point. But there are still eight games to play, beginning with a team Michigan has dominated the last 45 years. Minnesota comes to town looking to capture the Little Brown Jug for just the third time since 1968. The Gophers have beaten Western Michigan, Middle Tennessee, and San Jose State, and lost to TCU. Let’s take a look at how Michigan and Minnesota compare through four games.

Minnesota Statistics & Michigan Comparison

Minnesota | Michigan

Rank

Defense

Rank

Points Per Game

27.0|24.0

82 | T91

20.2| 20.2

T33 | T33

Rushing Yards

945 | 844

526 | 321

Rush Avg. Per Game

236.2 | 211.0

29 | 37

131.5 | 80.2

51 | 9

Avg. Per Rush

5.1 | 5.6

3.7 | 2.5

Passing Yards

399 | 773

1,009 | 723

Pass Avg. Per Game

99.8 | 193.2

121 | 98

252.2 | 180.8

82 | 27

Total Offense

1,344 | 1,617

1,535 | 1,044

Total Off Avg. Per Game

336.0 | 404.2

104 | 78

383.8 | 261.0

66 | 8

Kick Return Average

24.4 | 19.0

30 | T88

18.3 | 19.2

30 | T48

Punt Return Average

9.7 | 9.8

54 | T51

10.4 | 14.6

87 | 105

Avg. Time of Possession

31:18 | 32:42

35 | 22

28:42| 27:18

3rd Down Conversion Pct

37.0% | 45.0%

95 | 47

40.0% | 33.0%

72 | 39

Sacks Allowed-Yards/By-Yards

4-26 | 8-53

T22 | T80

8-54 | 7-67

T62 | T78

Touchdowns Scored

15 | 12

10 | 9

Field Goals-Attempts

1-3 | 4-7

4-8 | 6-7

Red Zone Scores

(10-13) 77% | (10-10) 100%

90 | T1

(9-11) 82% | (10-11) 91%

T57 | T91

Red Zone Touchdowns

(10-13) 77% | (8-10) 80%

(6-11) 55% |(6-11) 55%

Michigan’s offense isn’t exactly setting the world on fire, but believe it or not, Minnesota’s is even worse. Sure, the Gophers are averaging three points more, but they haven’t played a team near Notre Dame or Utah’s level yet. Okay, TCU may be about Utah’s level, but Western Michigan, Middle Tennessee, and San Jose State are nowhere close.

Even so, Minnesota’s offense ranks 104th nationally, averaging 68 fewer total yards per game than Michigan’s. The one positive for the Gophers is the running game, which ranks 29th nationally, averaging 236.2 yards per game — 25 more than Michigan. Running back David Cobb is one of the best in the Big Ten and is currently sixth nationally with 539 yards, averaging 135 yards a game and 5.9 yards per carry. By comparison, Derrick Green has 391 yards, but 28 fewer carries.

Schedule

Date

Opponent

Result

Aug. 28

Eastern Illinois

W 42-20

Sept. 6

Middle Tennessee State

W 35-24

Sept. 13

at TCU

L 7-30

Sept. 20

San Jose State

W 24-7

Sept. 27

at Michigan

Oct. 11

Northwestern

Oct. 18

Purdue

Oct. 25

at Illinois

Nov. 8

Iowa

Nov. 15

Ohio State

Nov. 22

at Nebraska

Nov. 29

at Wisconsin

Even with the gaudy rushing numbers, the Gophers running game is vulnerable. In Week 1 against Western Michigan, Minnesota rushed for 182 yards on 40 carries — a decent 4.6 yards per carry, but not great, though that can be excused in the first game of the season. Against Middle Tennessee in Week 2, the Gophers gained 284 yards on 50 carries, and last week against San Jose State, they exploded for 380 yards on 58 carries. But against the only good defense they faced, TCU in Week 3, Minnesota was held to just 99 yards on 39 carries — just 2.5 yards per carry. Cobb only managed 41 yards on 15 carries in that game.

While the running game has had some success this season, the passing game is a different story. Minnesota is averaging less than 100 passing yards per game, which ranks 121st nationally, better than only four teams — Navy, New Mexico, Eastern Michigan, and Army. In two of the four games, Minnesota hasn’t even managed 100 passing yards, and last week the Gophers pass for just seven (!) yards.

Defensively, Minnesota has fared slightly better, holding opponents to an average of 20.2 points per game, the exact same as Michigan. The rush defense ranks 51st, allowing 131.5 yards per game, while the pass defense ranks 82nd, allowing 252.2 yards per game. None of the four opponents has rushed for more than 200 yards on the Gophers — Middle Tennessee had the most with 190 — but three of the four have thrown for over 250 yards.

Special teams-wise, Minnesota has made just 1-of-3 field goal attempts and average 44.2 yards per punt. They average five yards per kick return more than Michigan and about the same as Michigan per punt return.

There’s a lot of pessimism surrounding the Michigan football program right now, but there’s no reason to believe the Little Brown Jug won’t be staying in Ann Arbor for another year. If Michigan stops the run, Michigan wins. It’s as simple as that.