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Wessel: Changing demographics will affect Georgia politics

President Obama, by a margin greater than predicted by most credible pollsters, won a second term as president of the United States. In addition, the Democrats have retained control of the U.S. Senate, and the Republicans will maintain control of the House.

In short, despite the billions of dollars spent in the most expensive election in U.S. history, not much has changed in terms of leadership at the federal government level.

What has changed? Demographics.

Demographics describe the characteristics of the electorate. And, the electorate is changing.

The 2010 Census notes that Latino populations have increased in many districts across the country, and these changes may influence the partisan direction of the vote in coming elections. Among the four states predicted to experience the most demographic changes, particularly in Latino populations, is Georgia.

Understanding trends in demographics helps explain why and how President Obama won a second term. Understanding these trends also helps foresee a potential path for government to move away from hyper-partisanship and gridlock.

The 2012 presidential election results suggest the Democrats noted demographic changes in various districts, particiularly across swing states like Ohio, Florida and Wisconsin, and focusing get-out-the-vote efforts in these types of districts.

A breakdown of the 2012 election results indicates President Obama was particularly successful among female voters, African Americans, Latinos and other minority groups. In order to remain competitive, both parties must consider how to attract diverse groups of voters while maintaining the ideological principles of the party.

The major challenge for Democrats and Republicans in Congress, both in terms of remaining competitive and overcoming partisan gridlock, is to work across the aisle.

A willingness to cross the aisle, compromise and occasionally vote against one’s party is a risky and daunting move for a member of Congress, particularly one representing an especially conservative or liberal constituency. Yet, the current gridlock in Congress, combined with historically low public approval of Congress, suggests not compromising might be the greater risk for members of Congress seeking re-election in 2014.

The major challenge for the president is to set the tone for compromise, and then follow up with actual action — becoming involved in the policy process in a meaningful and visible manner. President Obama was roundly criticized throughout his first term for not working with Congress in such a manner. In order for the president to contribute to legislative progress, he will no doubt have to engage with Congress, and particularly Republicans, in a way that ensures both sides can contribute to meaningful policy.

At the same time, Congressional leaders must be willing to compromise with the president, and perhaps take some risks with their constituencies, to reach a goal both sides want for the country — economic growth and security.

The first test for the president and Congress looms immediately. The current debt ceiling crisis, and the inability of the president and Congress to address the crisis, has left the country’s economic future in a rather tenuous position.

If the federal government does not come to an agreement on the debt ceiling — and fiscal policy more generally — by Dec. 31, the United States stands to face a financial crisis that could very well erase any economic progress made since the Recession of 2008. One thing both parties might consider is that voters will be paying attention.

Lara Wessel, Ph.D., is assistant professor of political science at Armstrong Atlantic State University.