Wednesday, May 18, 2016

Moscow Losing Its Former Dominance in the Caspian Basin, Russian Commentator Says

Paul
Goble

Staunton, May 18 – Despite Moscow’s
launch of a cruise missile last October from a Russian ship on the Caspian, an
event that some Russians saw as confirmation that that body of water was still
a “Russia lake,” the Russian government has been losing its earlier dominance
there in many sectors, according to Petr Bologov.

In
Soviet times, Moscow and Tehran divided the sea into two unequal parts; but
immediately after the USSR fell apart, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan “declared
that they do not recognize” that earlier division. And since that time, there
have been many rounds of talks but little progress toward coming up with a new
division of the sea.

As
a result of that lack of determinacy, Bolotov says, outside powers, including
China, the EU, Turkey and the US, have gotten involved in development projects
that earlier Russia would have played the dominant role and they have developed
trade with the littoral states at Russia’s expense.

Ports
in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan now handle six times as much cargo
traffic as the three Russian ports, Astrakhan, Oli, and Makachkala; and what is
more, traffic in the non-Russian ports is growing while that in the Russian
ports is declining or at best relatively stable at a low level.

This
pattern reflects the growing economic cooperation among the littoral states
from which Russia has been largely excluded and in which Iran and Western
countries are playing an increasing role.Things are better with regard to extractive industries where Russia is
still dominant but they may not remain that way in the future.

In
short, Bologov observes, the Caspian basin is increasingly viewed as an
east-west crossing point, linking China in the East with Europe and the
Atlantic world in the West rather than a north-south one that could tie Russia
to Iran and the greater Middle East. If that continues, Russia’s role in the
region will only continue to fall.