Edward Fitzpatrick: Young voters in U.S. should look at what happened in Brexit vote

Saturday

Jul 2, 2016 at 4:33 PMJul 2, 2016 at 4:33 PM

Edward Fitzpatrick fitzprov

The United Kingdom would have remained in the European Union if young people had turned out to vote at the average rate of 72 percent, according to an analysis by Generation Citizen, a nonprofit formed by a pair of Brown University graduates.

While young people overwhelmingly favored remaining in the E.U., only 36 percent of 18- to 24-year-olds turned out, according to polling data. And with 83 percent of those 65 and older turning out, the U.K. voted to exit the E.U.

The implications for the U.S. are clear: If young voters want to exert control over the policy decisions that shape their future, if they want to elect candidates they believe in and if, for instance, they want to avoid spending the next four years under President Trump, they need to stop griping at the kickball game and vote.

“Above all," Generation Citizen said in a statement, "the Brexit vote shows that youth votes matter. They could have changed the course of the European Union.”

Usually, people must wait months or years to see the impact of their votes, but Brexit’s impact was immediate. “The British pound has sunk to its lowest levels in years, global markets have crashed, and the politics of the U.K. is in crisis, without a clear successor and with the United Kingdom at legitimate risk of splitting up,” the group said. “While often, young people feel like politics does not matter to their future, there is hope that the instantaneous effects of the referendum vote may convince them otherwise.”

Using 2015 U.K. population estimates and exit poll data from the Lord Ashcroft polling group, Generation Citizen found that if both the 18-to-24 and 25-to-34 age groups had voted at the average rate of 72 percent, the “remain” camp would have won with 50.1 percent of the vote. And if the House of Commons hadn’t blocked a House of Lords measure allowing 16- and 17-year-olds to vote, “remain” would have won by a comfortable margin.

But now, young voters — who wanted Brexit the least — will have to live with it the longest: 18- to 24-year-olds will live with Brexit for an average of 69 years while those 65 and older will live with it for an average of 16 years.

Generation Citizen CEO Scott Warren, who co-founded the group at Brown in 2008, said young voters didn’t need to turn out at higher rates than older voters to change the Brexit outcome; they could have changed history just by voting at the average rate. “This shows the youth vote really matters,” he said. “And it shows the ramifications for staying at home.”

If young voters stay home, they can't spur action on issues with long-term implications, such as pension reform or climate change, said Tom Kerr-Vanderslice, Rhode Island executive director for Generation Citizen. If young voters stay home, politicians have more incentive to focus on issues that matter most to older people, such as Social Security, he said.

And if young voters stay home, they probably won’t get the candidates they want, Kerr-Vanderslice said. He noted Bernie Sanders enjoyed more support among millennials this year, but Hillary Clinton wound up as the Democratic presidential nominee. The Hill reports that Clinton has a 16-percentage-point lead over Republican Donald Trump, according to data collected by the social network Yik Yak. But that 16-point lead is pointless if those millennials don’t vote.

Rhode Island has one of the highest youth voter registration rates in the U.S., at 69 percent, Generation Citizen said. But in the 2012 presidential election, 47 percent of Rhode Island’s 18- to 29-year-olds voted, and just 16 percent voted in the 2014 midterms.

Why don’t more young people vote? In one national survey, 35 percent of young voters said they were “too busy/conflicting work,” while 18 percent said “not interested/felt vote wouldn’t count.”

What can be done? Generation Citizen said we can boost youth political participation by making it easier to vote, lowering the voting age to 16 and promoting civics education in schools. The group has pushed for online voter registration, which Rhode Island is now embracing, and early in-person voting, which the state has not embraced.

Meanwhile, schools must do a better job of civics education, Warren said. “We are not teaching young people to participate,” he said.

Generation Citizen contracts with high schools and middle schools to provide action-based civics classes, giving students a chance to do research and take action on local issues. For instance, students at Providence’s Juanita Sanchez Educational Complex worked to improve city recreation centers by incorporating student voices in management. Besides Rhode Island, the group works in New York, Boston and San Francisco, and it’s expanding into Oklahoma and Texas.

While we often hear about a rigged political system, Warren said Brexit offers one lesson: “It’s not as rigged as we think — it’s about who shows up.”

—efitzpat@providencejournal.com

(401) 277-7368

On Twitter: @FitzProv

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