Djibouti politics: Issa job?

Djibouti's parliament has passed a constitutional amendment that will allow the president to run for a third term. This is likely to cause tensions within the ruling coalition, and may ultimately lead to unrest. Donors are likely to remain broadly supportive, however.

On April 19th Djibouti's parliament approved a constitutional amendment that will allow the president, Ismael Omar Guelleh, to run for a third term. In addition, the legislature voted to shorten presidential terms from six to five years, and to set 75 as the maximum age limit for candidates (Mr Guelleh is 62).

The measures were adopted unanimously, suggesting that Mr Guelleh--who had previously stated that he would stand down at the end of his second term--has managed to quell the dissent within his ruling Union pour la majorité presidentielle (UMP) coalition over the constitutional amendment. The president's own party, the Rassemblement populaire pour le progrès (RPP), which dominates the UMP, was solidly behind the amendment, but two of the smaller UMP members, the Parti nationale démocratique (PND) and the Afar Front pour la restauration de l'unité et de la démocratie (FRUD), had made clear their opposition.

However, Mr Guelleh has dominated the local political scene for 40 years, and is unlikely to let the small matter of party-political (or other) opposition derail his plans. For example, he ousted the president of the Constitutional Court, Mohamed Warsama Ragueh, when it became apparent that Mr Ragueh opposed the constitutional amendment. Thus while the PND leader, Aden Robleh Awaleh, has said that he will stand against Mr Guelleh in the 2011 presidential race, and Mr Guelleh has yet to state that he will contest the poll, the president's powers of patronage, and the suppression of the opposition, are almost certain to ensure his victory.

This is not to say that Mr Guelleh's campaign for a third term will not cause problems. For one thing, it is likely to add to disaffection within FRUD--the RPP's main partner--since the party's leader, Ali Mohamed Daoud, is known to be strongly opposed to Mr Guelleh having a third mandate. Tensions are already rising because of perceptions that Issas are being favoured by the regime. FRUD's participation introduced Afar representation into the Issa-dominated RPP government and has helped to reduce ethnic and regional conflict in Djibouti. However, attempts by FRUD's leadership to avoid risking total marginalisation by seeking a rapprochement with the weak and repressed opposition will be strongly tested by the constitutional amendment allowing Mr Guelleh a third term in office. Ultimately, FRUD disaffection could threaten the limited co-operation between the Afars and the Issas, and there is a possibility that stability could be undermined by renewed armed conflict between government forces and Afar rebel groups in the north.

Nor is this the only threat to stability. Although Mr Guelleh now has almost total power from the national to the local level, the campaign for the presidential poll could well lead to opposition and unrest, which will probably be put down by the authorities. Although this is likely to cause some difficulties with the international community, Western countries and multilateral organisations are all too aware of Djibouti's strategic position in the Horn of Africa. Thus they are ultimately likely to turn a blind eye to civil and human-rights abuses so as to help preserve the country's political stability, although there is expected to be some behind-the-scenes pressure on the government to improve its record.