Risk is good, as long as you know the odds

Live: Thursday, Jan. 11, 2018

I entered two positions today, HAL and FFBC. I exited two positions, BLK. and FXE. The latter is preparatory to a roll forward in a series. I decided to hold JPM and WFC through their earnings announcements on Friday before the opening bell.

I have exited BLK. and also FXE as the first step of a roll forward to a later options series.

I have decided to hold JPM and WFC through their earnings announcements, both of which occur on Friday before the opening bell.

That leaves, one, possibly two, options slots open for trading from my prospects, HAL and IBM, and one shares slot free for a prospect selected from FFBC and WNS.

1/11 – 9:15 a.m. New York time

I have three positions that require decisions on whether to exit before earnings, or hold through the announcement:

BLK: I’m exiting today, pre-announcement. It’s price has fallen after two of the last four announcements. It’s profitable now. I shall take the prudent course.

JPM: It has fallen after each of the last four earnings announcements. The expectation of an upside earnings surprise is very slim. I shall hold this one through the announcement, despite an uptrending Fisher Transform

WFC: I still haven’t made up my mind. I’ll wait and see how it looks after the opening bell. WFC has risen after only one of the last four announcements. It has a small expectation of an earnings surprise.

1/10 – 7:50 p.m. New York time

I have two prospects for earnings plays using options, HAL and IBM, and two using shares, FFBC and WNS.

I had one space open up in my options account with Wednesday’s exit of UNH.

Two more, JPM and WFC, come up for pre-announcement action on Thursday.

JPM is positioned closer to the upper boundary of the profit zone and has a Fisher Transform metric that is whipsawing near the top of its range, suggesting a downtrend is looming. It isn’t profitable at this point. WFC is near the middle of its profit zone and is at 1.9% of maximum potential profit.

I shall decide on Thursday whether to hold the two positions through their respective earnings announcements. Neither has a strong indication of an earnings surprise.

In the shares account, BLK‘s pre-earns action day is Thursday. It is showing a 2.2% profit and is rated as having a weak potential for a negative earnings surprise. I’m leaning toward exiting before earnings at this point.

By Tim Bovee, Portland, Oregon, Jan. 10-11, 2018

Disclaimer

Tim Bovee, Private Trader tracks the analysis and trades of a private trader for his own accounts. Nothing in this blog constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell stocks, options or any other financial instrument. The only purpose of this blog is to provide education and entertainment.

No trader is ever 100 percent successful in his or her trades. Trading in the stock and option markets is risky and uncertain. Each trader must make trading decisions for his or her own account, and take responsibility for the consequences.

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