Tonight, Jimmy Kimmel Live moves to 11:45PM from its previous 12:05AM timeslot. Much has been made of Kimmel's rivalry with Jay Leno. The question is who will win the battle for Nielsen dominance? Last quarter, Kimmel averaged a 0.5 adults 18-49 rating at 12:05AM while The Tonight Show averaged a 0.8. The heavily promoted premiere, featuring guests Jennifer Anniston and No Doubt, is likely to attract a larger than usual audience. So what do you think the rating will be?

As somebody who follows this way too much, I think Kimmel may settle at a second place in the 18-49 demographic. Everybody seems to think Kimmel will skew super young and beat them but his last reported median age range was 53 which is outside the Demo. Fallon skewed younger at 52. I think he will wind up last in total viewers and I think Jay will wind up on top in the Demo. ABC’s prime time lineup isn’t exactly peachy either in the 10PM’s so he doesn’t have a huge network boost at all. I haven’t seen THAT much buzz really. The main buzz was Kimmel bashing Jay Leno which is so three years ago now.

Neal

Leno will beat them both. He is still the King!

Nick

I think @Matt is stuck in 1995.

Kimmel won’t do anything. And for the people saying that Nightline regularly beat Leno – check again. Nightline aired from 11:35-12:05, while Leno airs from 11:35-12:35. When comparing the total ratings for both shows, yes, Nightline was winning regularly, but only because it didn’t have that lower rated half hour that Leno has. When head to head, Leno wins the 11:35 half hour regularly.

And he will continue to win the entire hour. Chances are, old Nightline viewers will switch to Leno. Unless Kimmel can gain some new fans, he isnt going anywhere.

Matt

@Nick – I wish. I’d tell Roseanne not to bother with the last season of her show and I’d tell Conan to remember how happy he is to be on network television at 12:35

I really do think Letterman will come out on top, but time will tell.

GARebelman

Nick is correct. Nightline only beat Jay in the first half hour when Nightline either 1) had a surge in a big story 2) some huge finale spilled over past 11PM.

Kimmel saw a pretty good drop after Nightline went off and never beat Letterman or Jay in the first half hour. And with Ferguson/Fallon/Kimmel typically unless something weird happen Fallon would win the Demo. Ferguson was typically always last.

Jimmy Kimmel is not brining anything new. Jimmy Kimmel show will debut with the television cure-all of a “shiny new set.” Other than that, we can expect same old, same old, which is why Kimmel’s first guest will be Jennifer Aniston, fresh from the A-list of has-beens.”

Entertainment rates have fallen with viewers, and viewers have left CBS, NBC and ABC for Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert, for cable, for Hulu and YouTube
Are all the late night shows slowly dying?
NBC Tonight Show with Jay Leno ; CBS “Late Show with David Letterman,” ABC combo of “Nightline,” ; and “Jimmy Kimmel Live”
NBC “Late Night with Jimmy Fallon” CBS’s “Late Late Show with Craig Ferguson”
NBC “Last Call with Carson Daly”

Do The Daily Show with Jon Stewart and The Colbert Report on the Comedy Central channel on cable have more viewers when one takes into account the number of people who watch online?
“our developing tastes and viewing habits. We’re the generation of point and click. We record our shows, or watch them online. We fast forward through commercials or mute them on a separate tab on our laptops. There is no late-night for us. We’re the 24-hour, seven-days-a-week viewing crowd. We don’t care what time a show is on, or for how long. We just want to him to be entertained.”

s0303

i think the ratings will go up a little, but nothing significant…i don’t think many people will give up on leno or letterman just cuz jimmy kimmel is on a half hour earlier…personally, i don’t find kimmel very funny…

Nick

JKL will premiere with 0.9. It’ll go down to 0.6/0.7, but will very slowly climb back up again. Late Night viewing habits are hard to change. Nightline will also settle around 0.6, which is too bad. It was doing good at 11:35.

On a more interesting note, who wants to guess Cougar Town? I say 1.3.

joel

On a side note, Betty White to rule the universe with a 3+

Brad

What’s with all the haters for “<0.4"? Kimmel should be looking to get 0.9 give or take.

Hal Capone

Kimmel is the best and funniest of the 3. His ratings won’t match Nightline but the younger demo is more attractive to the networks so this was ultimately a shrewd move by ABC.

Neal

Not a chance Hal. Leno still has the best jokes in all of late night and his bits like Headlines are hilarious!

joel

@Neal,
I feel sorry for you.

Kyle

Jimmy Kimmel WON the hour last night

Jimmy Kimmel: 2.8
David Letterman: 2.7
Jay Leno: 2.5

Also Nightline won it’s hour as well with a respectable 1.8 compared to 1.4 and 1.3 for the other networks.

Short Term not great but in the long run this will help ABC A LOT! Also Kimmel attracts a younger demographic.

Kimmelized

Some just asked to explain the appeal of Jimmy Kimmel.

And to that person I’d ask to explain the appeal of Golden Corral and Furr’s at 4:30 in the afternoon.

Go away, grandpa.

Kimmelized

Nice to see that Honey Badger is still employed sucking John Stewarts Schlong. Even after the Mohel got done with him.

Write more so you can keep your jobs.

George

I’m a huge Jimmy Kimmel fan – I DVR the show and have watched just about every episode for the past 5+ years. I am excited by the move to 11:35pm which will likely allow him to draw better guests. Whatever his initial ratings are, I don’t have any illusions about the pecking order once the novelty of the move wears off. Leno > Letterman > Kimmel.

I’ve been reading the pre-launch publicity and I gather that the move to 11:35pm was made for 2 business reasons:

1. Though Nightline gets better ratings (even in 18-49), ABC doesn’t get as high ad rates for commercials running during the show than they do during entertainment (ie. Jimmy Kimmel), and that ABC has wanted for a long time to have entertainment at 11:35pm.

2. With Jimmy about 20 years younger than Letterman and Leno, ABC wants to establish Jimmy as the younger alternative at 11:35pm now, before Jimmy Fallon moves to the Tonight show when Leno retires.