Intrade (online prediction market) currently gives it a 25% chance of being won but there may not be enough trading volume for that to mean much. Interesting that the market gave it much higher odds last year.

why? they have enough money to. and bob richards has a stacked deck. and they have the technology.

there are a couple others that have a chance - Frednet (they have the technology and i believe they could get the money), maybe microspace (they have the technology but maybe not the money)...

Why does Bob Richards have a stacked deck? He doesn't have one piece of hardware tested less than 30 months from the first deadline. They might have an idea on how to build the lander from the NASA common Spacecraft Bus tech, but that's hardly working hardware- and it's only 1 part of the equation. What about the heavy lift rocket? The Lunar Bus? The rover?

All these teams are relying on a rocket (Falcon 9) that has flown once in a skeleton configuration, to earth orbit. Not only that but no one can or will answer the question of SpaceX's launch manifest. It's jam packed until 2015. When will they find the time to build and fly all these Falcon 9's the GLXP teams need?

The only team within 10 years of reaching this goal- (let alone less than 30 months) is ARCA. They have hardware, and are actively testing. Everyone else is messing around with Rovers. A lot of people wasting a lot of money and time...

All these teams are relying on a rocket (Falcon 9) that has flown once in a skeleton configuration, to earth orbit. Not only that but no one can or will answer the question of SpaceX's launch manifest. It's jam packed until 2015. When will they find the time to build and fly all these Falcon 9's the GLXP teams need?

Next Giant Leap plans to use a Falcon 1e. The same vehicles that our team member, Sierra Nevada Corp., is purchasing to launch the 18 OG2 satellites they are building. We are very familar with the capabilities, timing and availability of the F-1e. Note also that the mature OG2 bus is the baseline for our lander, we're not reinventing the wheel here.

WoG wrote:

Everyone else is messing around with Rovers. A lot of people wasting a lot of money and time...

I should point out that NGL is NOT using a rover. Our lander will simply fly from location to location. http://twitpic.com/2kuynv

All these teams are relying on a rocket (Falcon 9) that has flown once in a skeleton configuration, to earth orbit. Not only that but no one can or will answer the question of SpaceX's launch manifest. It's jam packed until 2015. When will they find the time to build and fly all these Falcon 9's the GLXP teams need?

Next Giant Leap plans to use a Falcon 1e. The same vehicles that our team member, Sierra Nevada Corp., is purchasing to launch the 18 OG2 satellites they are building. We are very familar with the capabilities, timing and availability of the F-1e. Note also that the mature OG2 bus is the baseline for our lander, we're not reinventing the wheel here.

WoG wrote:

Everyone else is messing around with Rovers. A lot of people wasting a lot of money and time...

I should point out that NGL is NOT using a rover. Our lander will simply fly from location to location. http://twitpic.com/2kuynv

All these teams are relying on a rocket (Falcon 9) that has flown once in a skeleton configuration, to earth orbit. Not only that but no one can or will answer the question of SpaceX's launch manifest. It's jam packed until 2015. When will they find the time to build and fly all these Falcon 9's the GLXP teams need?

Next Giant Leap plans to use a Falcon 1e. The same vehicles that our team member, Sierra Nevada Corp., is purchasing to launch the 18 OG2 satellites they are building. We are very familar with the capabilities, timing and availability of the F-1e. Note also that the mature OG2 bus is the baseline for our lander, we're not reinventing the wheel here.