Premier Explosives Ltd.

Transcription

1 . Market Cap. 52 Week H/L CMP Target Price Rs.2.72 bn Rs. 503/136 Rs.307 Rs.530 Recommendation Reuters Code Bloomberg Code August 25, 2015 STOCK DATA SHARE HOLDING (%) BUY PRMR.BO PRE.IN BSE Code Face Value Shares Outstanding* Rs mn Avg. Daily Volume (6m) 52,967 shares Price Performance (%) 1M 3M 6M (28) Days EMA Rs. 289 * On fully diluted equity Shares Promoters FII 0.51 DII 2.78 Public & Others Premier Explosives Ltd (PEL) is one of the leading companies in India, manufacturing the entire range of commercial explosives & accessories for civil requirement and is the only Indian private entity designing, developing & manufacturing solid propellants for Indian missiles viz. Akash, Astra etc. Decent growth in explosive with incremental growth likely on the back of defence segment: Premier has reported revenues CAGR of 10.9% over FY Explosives business reported a 7.9% CAGR,while Defence segment has reported a strong 37% CAGR during the same period, though on a small base. We expect Explosives segment to see 9% & defence segment to see 79% CAGR over FY15-17.The explosives segment is operating at ~45% capacity utlisation and hence can see strong growth without much capex if mining cycle turns around JV with Bharat Forge Group will take the company into new league: PEL recently formed a JV with Bharat Forge. The JV -BF Premier Energy Systems Pvt Ltd, will manufacture defence products. Bharat Forge has formed a JV with Israel based Rafale Advanced Defence Systems for manufacturing of high-tech defense components in India( Rocket Related). The Premier Bharat Forge JV is likely to make the entire rocket or the backend of the rocket for Rafael, Rafael will supply it to Bharat Forge for integration and which will in turn be supplied it to the Indian defence. New license received can dramatically change the revenue profile as well as growth rate: Premier has been present in the defence space since last 10 years & had applied for licenses to manufacture ammunition above 40 mm caliber & certain components of missiles & rockets. After a long waiting period of 3-5 years the licenses has been obtained and now the company is in the process of finalizing the manufacturing units for the same. The new business can dramatically change the revenue profile and growth of the company going ahead. Strong order book ensures revenues visibility.. higher contribution from defence will be margin accretive: Order Book has gone up by 75% QoQ to Rs 3,208 Mn (Defence Rs 919 Mn-29%,Explosives Rs 1,899 Mn 59%, Services Defence Rs 390 Mn -12%). We expect fresh orders from the defence segment as well from coal India which is likely to further strengthen the company s order book. Defence segment along with services has better margins than the explosives business, combined revenue contribution from which is expected to improve to ~43% by FY17 from current ~27% and this is expected to result in EBITDA margins improving to 12.6% by FY17 from 8.1% in FY15. VALUATIONS & OUTLOOK: The business model of Premier is attaining maturity with higher contribution from defence deal and lower dependence on explosives business; hence we believe the stock is poised for a re-rating. At the CMP of Rs 307 the stock is trading at 27.3x and 18.5x its FY16E & FY17E EPS of Rs 11.2 & Rs 16.6 respectively. We have valued the stock at 32x its FY17 EPS and arrived at a target price of Rs 530, implying an upside of 73%. Y/E Mar. Revenues (Rs. mn) APAT (Rs. mn) AEPS (Rs.) AEPS (% Chg) P/E (x) ROCE (%) ROE (%) P/BV (x) FY14 1, FY15 1, (45.5) FY16E 1, FY17E 2, This report based on Techno Funda Research and our View / Target Price has been derived accordingly. Please refer to the disclaimer on the last page. 1

2 COMPANY OVERVIEW Founded in 1980 by Dr A.N. Gupta Premier Explosives is a small but efficient player in the explosives industry in the country and is recognized company in the organized segment. Dr Gupta is a Gold medalist in Mining Engineering and Premier is the first company in India to set up a manufacturing unit with totally indigenous commercial explosive technology. Premier is also the first private sector manufacturer in India to develop and supply solid propellants to the country s prestigious missile programme. The company s capability includes scaling up of process for manufacture of CL-20, the most powerful explosive know so far. The company s products are consumed by mining, infrastructure and defense sectors. It has six manufacturing facilities located in MP, Maharashtra, TN & Telengana. The business of the company can be classified under three different segments: (A) Commercial Explosives (B) Defense (Solid Propellant & Specialty Products) (C) Operations & Maintenance Services Premier Explosives Ltd Key Management Mr A.N. Gupta Chairman & Managing Director-Gold medalist Chemical Engineers from Indian School of Mines (Dhanbad). T.V. Choudwary Executive Director-Chemical Engineers with 31 years of experience in production of Chemicals, explosives and solid propellant. Dr N.V. Srinivas Rao-Director Production-M.Sc. Phd (Chemistry) with 35 years of experience in production of explosives & accessories & Chemicals. Col Vikram Mahajan-Director Marketing- M.Tech and MBA in marketing with about 27 years of experience in army and extensive knowledge on opportunity in defense sector. 2

6 Investment Arguments Explosive segment to see ~10% CAGR over FY15-18: Premier s total revenues has reported revenue CAGR of 10.9% over FY10-15, from Rs 889 Mn to Rs 1,490 Mn. We expect the same to post 23.6% CAGR over FY15-17.We expect EBITDA and PAT to grow at 51% and 44% CAGR respectively over the same period. The explosives business has reported a 7.9% CAGR during the period and we expect it to report ~9.3% CAGR over FY15-18, as the demand from both coal as well as other mining segment is likely to revive over the next 2-3 years. Currently the explosives business of the company has been operating at ~45% utilization levels and any uptick in coal production as well as other mining segment can lead to strong growth without much capex. Further intense competition due to lower demand from user industry had resulted in pricing pressure both in the bulk explosives as well as detonators. Detonator prices had taken big hit in the last one year thus impacting the overall growth as well as margin. Out of the total revenues from the explosives segment ~60% is derived from the coal sector while the balance comes from other mining segments like iron ore, cement and others. The company has a limited exposure to overseas markets and ~11% of the segmental comes from exports of explosives. Over FY10-15 Coal India s production has grown at a CAGR of ~2.9%. Lack of clearances as well as logistics bottleneck impacted the off take of coal to a large extent. The Govt is targeting higher coal production over the next 5 years. In the last couple of years the coal production in India has stagnated and hence demand for explosives has also remained muted, however, with Coal India talking about nearly doubling the output in the next five years, the demand for explosives is set to increase. Currently Premier is supplying to six sites of coal India. Product Capacity Production Capacity Utilization Bulk Explosives 40,000 18,000 45% Cartridge Explosives 6, % Detonators 45 Mn Nos 18 Mn 40% Detonating chord 100 Mn Sq Meter 6

7 Investment Arguments Next Leg of growth will be driven by the defence segment: Defence segment has reported a strong 37% CAGR during FY10-15, though on a small base. Defence segment is expected to be the next big growth driver for the company as it has strong order book in hands Rs 9,19 Mn from the segment, executable over next months. Within the Defence segment the company is so far engaged primarily in supplying solid propellants for missiles and rockets. It has been supplying to the famous AKASH and ASTRA range of missiles. AKASH has been recently been formally inducted in the Indian Army and more orders are likely to come in. The company is already supplying booster and sustainer for the missiles, with booster being the area of focus, however going ahead more orders for sustainer will further enhance the revenue visibility. Other than Akash, Premier has been qualified and successful in the trials of two other missile programs, i.e LR-SAM & SR-SAM. Both the missiles are in testing phase and scope remains high. Premier is also present in the Indigenous rocket programed PINAKA, it got the first order for PINAKA in So far PINAKA was contracted by Ordinance Factory, however due to the constraint in supply from Ordinance Factory, the Indian Army has likely to give orders to Pvt sector players. Premier being a first mover is likely to get a fare share in the upcoming projects. Several new licenses has been received by the company in addition to the existing order in hand, which will ensure accelerated growth in the years to come. Some of the recent licensees received had been applied long back as long as 3-5 years and comes as a major developments. Though obtaining licensees are the first stage, going ahead the company will have to acquire technical expertise, form collaborations with foreign players and set up manufacturing units for the same. So we believe the entire process will take another 2-3 years time to materialize in terms of revenue contribution. However, Premier will have an early mover advantage in this field. Having sufficient land and licenses will also be an advantage while negotiating for foreign collaborations. 7

8 Investment Arguments Services Segment is very critical to get new orders from the Defence segment: Premier Explosives Ltd In the services segment Premier is engaged in the operating and maintaining the solid propellant production facilities of two prestigious agencies, namely ISRO s satellite launching station, SHAR at Shriharikota, Andhra Pradesh and Solid Fuel Complex (SFC) at Jagdalpur in Chhattisgarh. The service contract for Jagdalpur solid fule complex has been renewed by the company for another five years commencing June,2015. At SHAR the company has deployed 330 of its staff under the 10 year contract, which commenced operations in FY07; the contract is valid till However, the management is highly confident of renewal for another 10 years. The company also has O&M contract at Satish Dhawan Space Center (Shriharikota) and 60 of its staff are deployed at the site. At the SFC Jagdalpur 170 staff of the company is deployed. Though Premier gets only 10% of its revenues from the O&M contracts it also gives an added advantage of its staff getting exposed to latest practices in propellant manufacturing. In the last 10 years ISROS budget has been to the tune of Rs 43,867 cr and has grown at a CAGR of 12.74%.Increasing budget of ISRO can be considered as a positive development for companies like Premier who are having strong capability to serve the sector. 8

9 Investment Arguments Comfortable order book ensures decent business visibility: Order Book Position ( Rs Mn ) Total Order Book Duration Book To Bill In the last one quarter the company bagged some large orders in the explosive segment and hence overall order book has grown 73% QoQ to Rs 3,208 Mn at the end of 30 th June, 2015 of which Rs 919 Mn ( 29%) were from Defence segment, this is 3.6x its segmental revenue for FY15, indicating strong revenue pipeline, while explosives segment were of Rs 1,899 Mn ( 59%), the balance Rs 3,90 Mn (12%) were for services pertaining to defence. The current order in the defence segment is to be executed in the next months indicating revenue run rate of Rs mn p.a, which is much higher than the Rs 250 Mn achieved from the segment in FY14. This could result in a 120% jump in segmental revenues in FY16 and ~45% growth in FY17. However, the execution period of the order can vary quarter on quarter and hence full year achievement will be a better way to judge the performance of the company for the next couple of years. Apart from the above repeat orders of various sizes from the defence segment are also likely to come in the meantime, ensuring continuity of growth for the defence segment. Segment 3, Explosives Defence Products Services Outstanding Order Book As on 30 th June, 2015 ( Rs 3,208Mn ) Explosives Defence Products Services Source: Company, Sushil Finance 9

10 Investment Arguments Premier Explosives Ltd JV with Bharat Forge can be a game changer for the company: Premier Explosives recently formed a JV with Bharat Forge Group Company. The JV will be called BF Premier Energy Systems Pvt Ltd and will manufacture defence products. Though it is early to quantify the revenue visibility from the JV it will be a significant value additions to the company as far as next leg of growth is concerned. What could be the scope of the business from this JV? Bharat Forge Defence has formed a JV with Israel based Rafael Advanced Defence Systems for manufacturing of high-tech defense components in India. The Premier Bharat Forge JV is likely to make the entire rocket or the backend of the rocket for Rafael. Rafael will supply it to Bharat Forge for integration and they would be giving it to the defence. Bharat forge keeps on getting order for projectiles. In ammunition there is a propellant and a projectile. Projectile is a forged item which is made by Bharat Forge as it has strong expertise in forging components for any applications. Brief Profile of Bharat Forge-Rafael JV: Bharat Forge and Rafael Advanced Defense System entered into a JV in Jan, 2015 for manufacturing hi-tech defence components in India. The JV is likely to make Spike Anti-Tank Guided Missile for Indian Armed Forces and will also involve transfer of technology from Rafael. Rafael Advanced Defence Systems is a Govt Of Israel controlled corporation and is the second largest defence company in Israel with revenues over US $ 2.1 Bn. Rafael is engaged with Indian defence sectors since last 20 years and hence expected to be a key player of the upcoming modernization of Indian Defence systems. 10

11 Investment Arguments Premier Explosives Ltd Expect 24% overall revenue CAGR over FY15-17 : We expect the company to report 24% CAGR in revenues over FY15-17 on the back of 79% CAGR in revenues from the Defence segment. Explosives and services business is expected to report 9% & 10% CAGR during the same period. We expect defence revenues to more than double from Rs 250 Mn in FY15 to Rs 550 mn by FY16 and further to Rs 800 Mn by FY17. Revenues from defence has gone up from a mere Rs 50 Mn in FY10 to Rs 250 Mn by FY15 (37% CAGR), which gives us confidence that the management is getting aggressive as far as business from the segment is concerned. We have not factored in any revenue from the recent licenses received in the defence segment and Bharat forge JV as they are likely to start contributing only from FY18 onwards. Explosive Segment Defence Segment 1,400 1,200 1, ,026 1,081 1,167 1,284 1, FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E - FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E Source: Company, Sushil Finance Source: Company, Sushil Finance 11

12 Investment Arguments Higher Contribution from defence segment to boost margin & ROCE: We expect EBITDA margins to bounce back to 12.6% by FY17 from 8.1% in FY15. We expect the share of defence revenues ( excluding services ) to double to 35% by FY17 from 17% in FY15. Generally the margins from defence segment are higher than the traditional explosives business of the company and hence higher contribution from defence will be the key for margin expansion. We expect 450 bps EBITDA margin expansions over FY17 to 12.6%. Higher margin business coupled with better working capital management is expected to improve the ROCE of the company from 11.8% by FY15 to 20.8% by FY17. Though its early to predict however the new license obtained in the defence space by the company will place it in a much stronger position as far as business model is concerned. Due to the very nature of the business we don t expect the company to face any sort of issues on raising funds for the expansion at a competitive rate. 12

13 Business model of the company is attaining maturity : The revenue profile of the company has changed a lot over the last five years and the management has started focusing more on the high margin defence segment. Explosive business has become more commoditized over the last few years with intense competition. The management had been focusing on the defenece segment for last one decade, however in the last five years the growth from the segment has been quite visible and its revenue contribution has gone up to 17% by FY15 from 6% in FY10. The services revenues of the company is also related to defence and hence on a combined basis its share in the total revenues has gone up to 27% by FY15 from 17% in FY10, which we expect to further improve to 38% by FY16 and 43% by FY17. Segmental Revenue : FY 2010 FY 2015 FY % 11% 17% 10% 8% 35% 57% 83% 73% Explosives Defence Products Services Source: Company, Sushil Finance 13

14 List of new licenses received from DIPP: Mob Dispersion devices Site Mixed Explosives Cartridge Explosives Bombs related to Defence Mines related to defence Rockets and Missiles Ammunition of 40 mm and above caliber Single Base Propellant Explosives Reacting Armour Flexible Liner Shape Charge War heads of all types including filling & assembling Munition 20 mm and above including filling & assembling Military fuses of all types including filling & assemblies 20-Apr-15 1-May May May May May May Jun Jun Jun-15 1-Jul-15 1-Jul-15 1-Jul-15 Scope Of the new licenses received: Mob Dispersion devices: So far the company was supplying tear gas grenade and with the licenses it can start supplying Tear Gas Shell. Site Mixed Explosives: Bulk explosives to be manufactured at certain site. Ammunition of 40 mm and above caliber, Rockets & Missiles, Bombs, cartridge Explosives: The said products are largely manufactured by the ordinance factories in India and opening up of the same to pvt sector will be a big positive for the company. Flexible Liner Shape Charge: A shaped charge is an explosive charge shaped to focus the effect of the explosive s energy. Various types are used to cut and form metal, initiate nuclear weapons, penetrate armour. Explosive Reactive Armor( ERA): It is an add-on armour designed to offer additional protection to tanks against shaped charge warheads of modern antitank guided missiles ( ATGMs). DRDO has developed an ERA system which effectively reduces penetration of Milan 2 Shaped charge warhead to the extent of 70%. Single Base Propellant: Single base propellants are mainly used as gun propellants and not used in rocketry. War heads of all types including filling & assemblies: A war head is a part of the projectile weapon, such as a missile or torpedo, that contains the explosive or damaging material, such as bomb or chemical agent. 14

16 INDUSTRY VIEW Explosive Sector Overview: PEL manufactures entire range of explosives and accessories, the demand for which comes mainly from core sectors such as mining, coal, iron ore, lime stone, which in turn are driven by demand from power & infrastructure. The Indian explosive market is of ~7, 50,000 MT. Primary raw materials used by the explosives industry, including Premier Explosives is Ammonium Nitrate (AN) and the transportation of the same is highly regulated by the Govt Of India. Recently AN has been categorized as explosives and brought under the explosives act, as a result all regulations imposed on the movement of explosives is now applicable to AN as well. However, we believe companies which already have the license to use AN as raw materials will have an advantage as the unorganized use of AN will be under check going ahead. ISRO s budget has been in an uptrend, with more plans ahead: In the last 10 years ISROS budget has been to the tune of Rs 43,867 cr and has grown at a CAGR of 12.74%. Except in FY14 every year the budget has been hiked for ISRO by the Govt. Premier Explosives has been engaged with ISRO for the last one decade and we believe the increasing budget of IROS bodes well for the company. Budget Outline of ISRO for the last decade: Budget Rs Cr Plan Outlay % YoY Non Plan Outlay Total Budget FY04 2, ,368 % YoY FY05 2, % 331 2, % FY06 2, % 348 3, % FY07 3, % 390 3, % FY08 3, % 438 3, % FY09 3, % 474 4, % FY10 4, % 859 4, % FY11 5, % 778 5, % FY12 5, % 926 6, % FY13 5, % 1,100 6, % FY14 3, % 1,171 5, % FY15 4, % 1,326 5, % FY16 6, % 1,368 7, % 16

17 Apr-04 Sep-04 Feb-05 Jul-05 Dec-05 May-06 Oct-06 Mar-07 Aug-07 Jan-08 Jun-08 Nov-08 Apr-09 Sep-09 Feb-10 Jul-10 Dec-10 May-11 Oct-11 Mar-12 Aug-12 Jan-13 Jun-13 Nov-13 Apr-14 Sep-14 Feb-15 Jul-15 Dec-15 Premier Explosives Ltd OUTLOOK AND VALUATION The business model of Premier explosives is attaining more maturity with higher contribution from value added defence deal and lower dependence on explosives business. We feel the company will have the first mover advantage in the defence space as it already has the required licenses and expertise for scaling up. Hence we believe the stock is poised for re-rating. Though there will be several new entrants in the defenec space in the coming future, companies having proven track record will have an edge over others in scaling up in size and this is one of the key reason for our conviction on Premier s performance going ahead. At the CMP of Rs 307 the stock is trading at 27.3x and 18.5x its FY16E & FY17E EPS of Rs 11.2 & Rs 16.6 respectively. We have valued the stock at 32x its FY17 EPS and arrived at a target price of Rs 530, implying an upside of 73% One year forward P/E Close -Unit Curr 5.0 X 10.0 X 15.0 X 20.0 X 25.0 X 17

18 GLOSSARY Detonators: It is a device used to trigger an explosive device. Detonators can be chemically, mechanically or electrically initiated, the later two being the most common. Detonating Cord: It is a think, flexible plastic tube usually filled with PETN. With the PETN exploding ~4 miles per second. It is a high speed fuse which explodes, rather than burns and is suitable for detonating high explosives. Typical uses include mining, drilling, demolitions and warfare. Booster: A booster is the initial propellant system which gives the acceleration thrust for takeoff. Sustainer: Then comes the sustainer which drives the rockets to the next orbit. Premier Explosives Ltd 40 mm caliber ammunition: A 40 mm caliber ammunition is normally refereed to ammunition used in a grenade launcher. Explosive Reactive Armor( ERA): It is an an add-on armour designed to offer additional protection to tanks against shaped charge warheads of modern antitank guided missiles ( ATGMs). DRDO has developed an ERA system which effectively reduces penetration of Milan 2 Shaped charge warhead to the extent of 70%. Single Base Propellant: Single base propellants are mainly used as gun propellants and are not used in rocketry. Flexible Liner Shape Charge: A shaped charge is an explosive charge shaped to focus the effect of the explosive s energy. Various types are used to cut and form metal, initiate nuclear weapons, penetrate armour. Akash: It is a medium-range mobile surface to air missile developed by DRDO, Ordinance Factory Board and Bharat Electronics Ltd. The missile system can target aircraft upto 30Km away upto 18,000 meters.it is in operational service with the Indian Army and the Indian Airforce. 18

21 ANALYST Siddharth Purohit SALES Devang Shah /62 Stock Review Reports: These are Soft coverage s on companies where Management access is difficult or Market capitalization is below Rs mn. Views and recommendation on such companies may not necessarily be based on management meeting but may be based on the publicly available information and/or attending Company AGMs. Hence Stock Reviews may be just one-time coverage s with an occasional Update, wherever possible. Disclaimer : This report has been furnished to you for your general information only and should not be reproduced, re-circulated, published in any media, website or otherwise, in any form or manner, in part or as a whole, without the express consent in writing of Sushil Financial Services Private Limited. This Research Report is meant solely for use by the original recipient to whom it is sent and is not for circulation. Any unauthorized use, disclosure or public dissemination or copying of information (either whole or partial) contained herein is prohibited. This Report does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. The recommendations, if any, made herein are expression of views and/or opinions and should not be deemed or construed to be neither advice/offer for the purpose of purchase or sale of any securities mentioned herein. Past performance is not a guide for future performance, future returns are not guaranteed. Opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Investor should rely on information/data arising out of their own investigations. Investors are advised to seek independent professional advice and arrive at an informed trading/investment decision before executing any trades or making any investments. 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