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DUBAI, Feb 4 (Reuters) - Iran is holding a military exercise on Saturday to test its missile and radar systems, a day after U.S. President Donald Trump's administration imposed sanctions on Tehran for a recent ballistic missile test.
The United States sanctioned 13 individuals and 12 entities related to Iran's missile programme and Trump's national security adviser Michael Flynn said the United States was putting Iran on notice over its "destabilising activity".

A commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guards on Wednesday warned that the U.S. will “receive a strong slap in the face” if it underestimates Iran's military power.
"The enemy should not be mistaken in its assessments, and it will receive a strong slap in the face if it does make such a mistake," General Mohammad Pakpour said, according to remarks on the group's website, as reported by Reuters. "Everyone could see today what power we have on the ground."
Iranian officials have been warning the U.S. of their country’s military might since initiating a series of ballistic missile tests last month. Tehran claims its tests are for defensive purposes only, but President Trump put Iran “on notice” and vowed a response.

Ignore the partisan distractions by the Associated Press, since this film's four-year long production (which had to be state sanctioned) illustrates just how much smoke-and-mirrors Tehran was serious about 'rapprochement'.

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) — In a climactic battle at sea, an Iranian commander orders his forces to open fire on a much larger U.S. fleet, obliterating it with a barrage of rockets, some of which tear American flags from their masts.
The scenario unfolds in "Battle of the Persian Gulf II," a new Iranian animated film more than four years in the making that imagines a devastating response to an American attack on the country's nuclear program.
It might have seemed out of date this time last year, when a nuclear accord reached with world powers had lifted sanctions and raised hopes for a broader rapprochement between Iran and the West.

DUBAI (Reuters) - Iran denied on Saturday U.S. accusations that its fast-attack boats were "harassing" warships at the mouth of the Gulf, and said Washington would be responsible for any clashes in the key oil shipping route.
U.S. Navy commanders earlier accused Iran of jeopardizing international navigation by "harassing" warships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and said future incidents could result in miscalculation and lead to an armed clash.
They spoke after the U.S. aircraft carrier George H.W. Bush confronted what one of the commanding officers described as two sets of Iranian Navy fast-attack boats that had approached a U.S.-led, five-vessel flotilla as it entered the Strait on Tuesday on a journey from the Indian Ocean into the Gulf.

Iran's Road Ahead Signals International Isolation

With the presidential election set aside, what is the road ahead for Iran, domestically and abroad? Is Iran seeking to establish relations with the international community, especially the United States? Is this regime interested in engaging the world, and is this why President Hassan Rouhani was granted a second term?

“There are those who are concerned a state and its people should have global relations, and I completely agree,” said Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on May 27th.

“Iran has no restrictions in cooperating with large US oil companies,” said Iranian Oil Minister Bizhan Namdar Zangane to reporters on the sidelines of a recent OPEC meeting.

Many may consider such words as a new window of opportunity in Iran, falling for the same deceptive tactics used by this regime for nearly four decades. We should not go down this path and play into Iran’s hands. Those familiar with the true nature of this regime understand these are signals of weakness, desperation, fear and begging.

US President Donald Trump recently ended a 9 day foreign trip to the Middle East and Europe. Time and again, in Riyadh, Jerusalem, Tel Aviv, Bethlehem, Brussels and Italy he resorted to strong remarks against Iran, accusing it of terrorism and evil, highlighting the regime’s destabilizing role, its use of militias and meddling in Syria, Iraq and Yemen, flagrant human rights violations and the fact that the Iranian people are the main victims of this regime. Trump also highlighted how the US intends to work with all nations in the region against Tehran’s meddling.

And in response, Khamenei delivered four speeches with his fledgling camp of followers expecting strong remarks from their “Death to America” flag-holder.

Yet with Obama gone and a far different US president in the White House, Khamenei has not dared resort to his old practices. Again, another sign of weakness. His silence is not merely a reflection of Trump’s visit to the region, but a canvas of the new balance of power in the Middle East and beyond as the new American leader is overhauling previous foreign policy doctrines after failing to deliver.

Khamenei has every right to be concerned. The US Treasury Department has been busy issuing three new rounds of sanctions and various blueprints are also discussed in Congress, rendering a number of bills. Interestingly, Khamenei has refused to say a word in response, not even accusing the US of failing to fulfill its nuclear deal.

Furthermore, the new US sanctions may have only been imposed on 40 or 50 companies, and there are voices heard describing such measures as merely kicking the can down the road. Yet there is significance in the details:

These sanctions have broadened the spectrum beyond Iran’s ballistic missile program and targeted the regime’s human rights violations. This includes sanctioning the Prisons Organization and blacklisting Sohram Suleimani, the brother of Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) Quds Force chief Qassem Suleimani. For those familiar with this regime, the human rights dossier is this regime’s Achilles heel.

The IRGC is being specifically targeted, parallel to its affiliated companies, and paving the path for its ultimate blacklisting.

Congress has begun focusing on non-nuclear sanctions on Iran. With the Obama obstacle set aside, there is real perspective of such plans being adopted.

This includes the very sensitive 1988 massacre dossier in Iran where the mullahs sent over 30,000 political prisoners to the gallows in the span of a single summer. The House Homeland Security Committee Chairman Mike McCaul introduced such an initiative, enjoying co-sponsorship of House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Ed Royce, Ranking Member Eliot Engel and Rules Committee Chair Rep. Peter Sessions.

The House resolution “condemns the Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran for the 1988 massacre of political prisoners and [calls] for justice for the victims.”

Such measures become so utterly significant when they enjoy bipartisan support, as seen in the new Senate Foreign Relations Committee, adopted with 18 of 21 votes in favor. This bill targets Iran’s ballistic missile program, terrorism, human rights and the IRGC. If passed by the Senate the bill obligates the US government to impose new sanctions against active individuals and entities involved in Iran’s ballistic missile program.

Another similar measure directly targets the IRGC and if adopted this will render the first sanctions directly targeting this entity. The only previous such measure dates back to 2007 when the US blacklisted the IRGC Quds Force.

The truth is Iran’s election façade has come to an end with Khamenei failing to unify his regime. The entire regime apparatus suffered a blow, as rifts are rampaging across the board amongst its ranks and file. Iran is also faced with a new international coalition and the most noteworthy regional isolation.

There are no signs of change as in early May, Khamenei admitted, “a change of behavior is no different from regime change.”

All this is recipe for disaster as Tehran faces a very difficult road ahead. This is also considered a window of opportunity for the Iranian people to finally enjoy the long overdue support of the international community in their quest for freedom and democracy.

Last edited by davidbfpo; 06-05-2017 at 11:08 AM.
Reason: Moved from Syria thread as it fits here.

ISIS in Tehran: a "9/11" for Iran?

Yesterday's ISIS twin attacks in Tehran strongly indicate Iran has a problem, although this is not the first ISIS attack in country.

From an ICSR commentary by Charlie Winter:

In sum, this attack against Iran makes strategic sense for the Islamic State in the same way that attacking the United States on 9/11 made strategic sense to Usama bin Ladin.

In the next few days, people will be wondering where this operation came from. Even if the attackers turn out to be foreign nationals, they will have required extensive support from a local network to execute something like this.

TEHRAN, Iran – #An Iranian soldier opened fire on his colleagues, killing three and wounding 12 of them at a military air base in south Tehran, the semi-official Mehr news agency reported on Sunday.
The report said one of the victims was an officer and the two others were regular soldiers. It added that the assailant was killed in a shootout with other soldiers.

Iran and (in)security in the Gulf

A short, balanced review article. It starts with:

Iran’s presence and involvement in the Gulf continues to impact security in the region. In a recent paper presentation, I argued that the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) regime has had a hand in security and insecurity concerns amongst its neighbors in the region, and beyond. This argument is conveyed through four examples concerning the Gulf, namely; the IRI’s involvement in the fight against DAISH, attempts (successful and otherwise) to achieve regional influence through and with Shia and Shia-aligned actors, the economic and strategic potential of Iran’s ‘re-entry’ into the global energy market, and the heightening international community’s concerns over the country’s nuclear program. Each of these four examples are taken in turn to convey just how much of a role Iran plays in Gulf security matters. Further, and perhaps most importantly, Tehran’s involvement in each of these matters is embedded in a pragmatic sense of ensuring the IRI regime’s survival.

Last night, a large number of aircraft were spotted leaving Iran with “no callsign, origin, or destination.” Strategic Sentinel, a DC-based firm that provides “nonpartisan international relations and national security analysis,” raised the prospect that the live flight radar data may suggest an “exodus,” is in progress.

Even if they would have a decent chance to be successful it such projects just seem a huge waste of money due to the very high opportunity costs...

More so if the economic legs are so marginal in propping up the whole state. If you disregard the common good much is of course possible until it all breaks down.

Last edited by Firn; 01-07-2018 at 08:31 AM.

... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"

I wish the Iranians all the best. Indeed, I wish them a quick removal of that fascistoid regime that's terrorising even itself (as absurd and amazing at it might sound, but that's the simple truth about the Khamenei, IRGC and the entire gang of cliques there).

However, and I'm very sorry to say it: I do not see how should their protesting ever work?

The regime is so deeply embedded in the society, and having such a firm grip of the economy and security, nothing else but a civil war might ever work.

Indeed, 'this time' it's the very core basis of the IRGC's regime that's protesting. Contrary to what various of Shah-wannabes abroad are trying toe explain, it's masses of poor Iranians. Not the educated elite, nor anybody else, but the poorest between the poorest. Just like in Syria of 2011.

With other words: in 'best case scenario', this is going to be 'just another Syria of 2011' (even much of 2012).

Perhaps even worse than that: the last six years, the Mullah regime has been taught (by the West), that it can apply any kind of terror, any kind of weapons upon its own population (and that of several neighbouring countries) - and absolutely nothing is going to happen to it.

On the contrary: Airbus and Boeing are going to continue selling it airliners.

With other words: in 'best case scenario', this is going to be 'just another Syria of 2011' (even much of 2012).

Perhaps even worse than that: the last six years, the Mullah regime has been taught (by the West), that it can apply any kind of terror, any kind of weapons upon its own population (and that of several neighbouring countries) - and absolutely nothing is going to happen to it.
.

Harsh words but I fear there is more then just some truth in it. All those wars with their brutalities and often direct Iranian military intervention have certainly set the bar of feasible terror very low.

Economically the times are harsh although some support will come from the higher oil prices .

... "We need officers capable of following systematically the path of logical argument to its conclusion, with disciplined intellect, strong in character and nerve to execute what the intellect dictates"

Not for Gaza, not for Lebanon, we will die for the sake of Iran

Someone loves Qassem Soleimani, it's Palestinian children - an Israeli watcher has spotted a video by children in Gaza singing his praises. Whilst reportedly demonstrators in Iran were saying something very different.
Link:http://www.terrorism-info.org.il/en/...rapprochement/

One is that there is an all-out Iranian military intervention in Syria going on since 6 years, with the IRGC-QF controlling and providing for up to 250,000 troops there (including locals)...

...another is that there is no Syria even in form of an 'Assad Regime' actually left worth talking about, because everything there is de-facto IRGC-QF-controlled...

...and yet all of the West can't find a single Pasdaran in all of Syria, and don't anybody dare touching that nuclear treaty.

...while all are crying foul about three (in digits: 3) Hezbollah in Yemen, fantasising about some 'increased tempo of Iranian arms deliveries to the Houthis', and increasing the resulting hysteria for an 'Iranian effort to destabilize the Middle East'.

...while two (out of several thousands) of videos showing a few Iranian protesters calling for something like 'return of the Shah', are happily misinterpreted into who-knows-what sorts of amazing stuff and whatever else.

When not only the politics, but indeed the entire 'reality' goes that absurd... then it's sure as Hell: there few billions of sticky, little, green truths in it.