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Thu, 22 Feb 2018 07:14:10 +0000Joomla! - Open Source Content Managementen-gbTrading up for a QB is a reasonable option for the Dolphinshttp://phinfever.com/index.php/9-blog/350-trading-up-for-a-qb-is-a-reasonable-option-for-the-dolphins
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I mentioned in a previous blog how Miami could move up in the draft and it seemed more wishful thinking than actual possibility (is that an oxymoron?). I didn't think Miami had the capital to make such a move, but, after some more consideration I believe they are PRIMED to trade up if they so choose.

Now there are too many factors in the front office/philosophy/pocketbook to predict whether they would do so such a thing. Let's not go there yet.

I always assumed Buffalo had the most ammo to move up (2 1st Rounders and extra Day 2 picks). Their 1st Rounders are 21st and 22nd overall. Not great, but not bad if a team is looking at quantity for young talent. Miami could easily outplay them here if they use Ryan Tannehill and the structure of his deal to their advantage.

I had said offer Tannehill to Cleveland and that may still be the preferred course of action in their quest to get an experienced starter. You could say the door would be open in Denver as well. But what about going in the other direction? I just read how Blake Bortles had surgery and Jacksonville needs to decide on his $19 million option. Insert one Ryan Tannehill into trade talks for the 29th overall pick. Jacksonville's line can protect him, the receivers can get open and the running game takes the pressure off. For Jacksonville they have so much youth they do not need more picks. They need a guy who doesn't overthrow screens by 5 yards nor misses frequently on the deep ball. Tannehill had some of the best deep accuracy in 2016.

Miami could package the 11th, 29th, and their early 4th Rounder for the 1st overall pick for the rights to any QB they want. My preference is Sam Darnold but this isn't about my opinion. Cleveland still has the 4th overall pick for a QB, now the 11th pick for a top shelf player and the 29th pick to grab a very good prospect.

I believe this is a scenario that would satisfy all teams involved. Tannehill's contract is now middle of the road in cost and easily escapable if he gets hurt again. As for a veteran starter, you have the options of whoever doesn't stick in Minnesota, perhaps a released Blake Bortles (yuck! but experienced) or a bunch of guys who can start 6 or 7 games (Mike Glennon, Mark Sanchez, Josh McCown, etc.).

I doubt this happens or is even likely to happen, just pointing out that it is a realistic option if Miami wants to go down that road. It might even buy Tannenbaum and Gase longer leashes because neither technically brought Tannehill to Miami. They can make the case that Darnold, or Josh Rosen or Baker Mayfield is their guy and who they tie their legacy to.

The Miami Dolphins have a big decision to make at the quarterback position. Ryan Tannehill enters 2018 as the presumed starter based on commentary from the owner, GM and head coach. It does not appear he will be competing for his job unless Miami surprisingly swings a trade or signs a free agent in March. Regardless of your opinion of Tannehill, this conversation is much deeper than just the quarterback discussion.

The Dolphin's Brass has to answer two very important questions for their team:

1. Are we close to a deep playoff run or are we another mediocre pretender in need of a rebuild?

2. Should we unload assets via trade to comb Heaven and Earth for a potential franchise quarterback, or, should we continue to build other positions to create a better core?

The answer to the first question is unknown, despite what local beat writers or talking heads will tell you. No one knows if young players like Kenyan Drake, Laremy Tunsil, Xavien Howard, or a host of others will take it to another level. The answer to the second question may surprise you a bit.

With Ryan Tannehill expected to make a full recovery from the season-ending knee injury he suffered early in Training Camp last season, it’s very likely he opens the 2018 season as the Miami Dolphins' quarterback: 1/3 odds. In his lone season with head coach Adam Gase (2016), Tannehill posted a career-high 93.5 passer rating en route to the Dolphins making the playoffs for the first time since 2008.

Although Gase defended Jay Cutler throughout the 2017 season, it’s very unlikely the Dolphins bring back the 34-year-old to compete for the starting job, or to serve as the backup. The odds of Cutler being a Dolphin in 2018 sit at 49/1.

The Dolphins may be happy with Tannehill under center for the 2018 season, but they are not sold on him as a franchise QB yet. As a result, look for Miami to try and acquire one of the top-four QB prospects in the 2018 NFL Draft. Possessing the 11th-overall pick, and all the buzz surrounding the quartet of pivots, Miami may need to move up the board if they want Josh Allen or Baker Mayfield, leaving their odds of drafting a QB in the first-round of the 2018 NFL Draft at 5/3.

Make no mistake, this is a quarterback league. But, if you look at the four teams in the conference championship games this year you should note that at least two had serviceable quarterbacks (Minnesota and Jacksonville) while the third, due to how well built it was, survived a devastating injury by relying on the play of a well built supporting cast. Heck, even Tom Brady's early success was as a game manager assisted by a phenomenal arsenal of teammates.

"But you are just using anecdotal evidence!!! You are delusional! Trade Tannehill and move up!!!"

Look, if the brass has a conviction on a top quarterback I'm all for it. But a little study of history supports the notion that a team may be best served by creating a comfortable landing spot for a young quarterback. In 2008 Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco were first round picks. Both enjoyed early success due to strong defenses and a good ground attack aka the pressure for them to carry a team was reduced. Look at every quarterback back drafted from that point forward and you'll notice that most who succeeded had comfortable environments and great coaching to assist them. Does Miami currently have that for a rookie signal caller?

As to the notion Miami needs a first round quarterback consider the following: in 2011 Cam Newton was the first overall pick, Andy Dalton was a second rounder. Both have the same amount of playoff seasons under their belts. The three other first round quarterbacks selected that year are either unemployed or barely backups. Russell Wilson, Nick Foles, and Kirk Cousins were drafted on Day 2 in 2012 and have more collective postseason success than Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Ryan Tannehill and Brandon Weeden (first round quarterbacks that year) combined. But Andrew Luck is the real deal!!! Well...

Luck's career record is 43-27. He is 20-5 versus the AFC South, which has been incredibly weak. That leaves him 23-22 versus the rest of the league. That isn't necessarily a knock on him because we all recognize how poorly his team was constructed and what was asked of him to compensate for that weakness. You can destroy a talented quarterback by putting him in a rough situation and asking him to do too much.

So why such a long winded narrative? Well, Miami may want to consider whether or not they can develop long term success by avoiding a first round quarterback selection this year. This quarterback class appears to be much deeper than any of us anticipated. There very well could be another Russell Wilson, Jimmy Garoppolo, Derek Carr or Dak Prescott sitting there on Day 2 or 3 just waiting to be stolen. It also means that if teams rush to draft the Big 4 - Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield - in the top 10 selections it is possible an elite talent at another position falls right into Miami's lap. Conversely, if one of those quarterbacks is still on the board when Miami picks then they must at least consider it.

My guess is that head coach Adam Gase, who is fiercely loyal to the guys who buy into his program, wants to see Ryan Tannehill succeed. He is also aware that his team needs help in a lot of other areas so if an elite linebacker, safety or even offensive tackle is available at 11 he will ask Mike Tannenbaum and Chris Grier to better the team with that avenue. Gase was present at the Senior Bowl for Day 1 to watch and interview quarterback prospects. The name that keeps popping in the Twitterverse is Western Kentucky quarterback Mike White with a 3rd or 4th round grade. Local beat reporter Omar Kelly compared him favorably to Kirk Cousins when the latter competed at the Senior Bowl. Accuracy, awareness, and most importantly, leadership are things that Mike White exudes. Optimum Scouting's Eric Galko has been trumpeting White for a long time and after a little research I can see why. Rumor is he caught the brass's eyes and spent time with Miami during Senior Bowl week. Also note that GM Chris Grier emphasized leadership as the key quality he looks for in a quarterback.

With all of that said, if I were a betting man I'd say that Miami is going into next season with Ryan Tannehill starting, David Fales as a "break in case of emergency" backup, and will attempt to get Mike White on the roster as someone who can compete with Tannehill in a year or two. Best case scenario is that White would pick up the system so fast that he overtakes Fales as the primary backup. In rounds 1 and 2 of the draft Miami can focus on grabbing the best players available to strengthen their roster so that Tannehill and a drafted quarterback have a more favorable atmosphere to succeed. They also would not have to overpay for a backup.

Final notes are that this is the NFL, crazy things happen and Mike Tannenbaum loves to wheel and deal. With the Alex Smith trade to Washington and Kirk Cousins having a host of suitors, teams that need a competent quarterback may be willing to overpay for a guy like Tannehill. His contract is a series of one year deals that a team could easily get out of after 2018 or 2019. Should Miami love one of the Big 4 prospects then it would make sense to use Tannehill as a trade chip to build assets. Will it happen? Probably not.

As I previously mentioned, Gase is loyal to "his guys." Also, one of the conditions of hiring Gase was agreeing to get the best out of Tannehill. They are incredibly high on him despite what you read in the media, but they learned a valuable lesson by ignoring depth at the position last year. That lesson extends beyond quarterback which is why I think they will fortify other areas early on rather than reaching for a first round quarterback. When the value is right on Day 2 or 3, they will get a guy like Mike White who can be groomed to take over while also having the talent to start a few games should his name be called.

1. This team is sloppy and undisciplined.The pre-snap penalties were more reliable than their ability to make a first down. If there was a big play on either side of the ball, I was conditioned to look for the flag, and was not often disappointed. The personal fouls, stupid yapping and fighting after the plays. It made me sick, and as an old-timer who grew up watching Shula-coached teams, I put this squarely at the feet of Adam Gase. He HAS to get control of his team. Bench their buts. Fine them. Cut somebody and make an example that this won't be tolerated.

2. There is an overall lack of quality depth on defense.Throughout the season, there were guys starting games that should have never been counted on as starters. Nate Allen. Chase Allen. Bobby McCain. Alterraun Verner. I could probably go on. Heck, some of the guys that we thought would be quality reliable starters played much more poorly than I expected. Maualuga. Timmons. Even Kiko Alonso, who I generally have been a fan of, was exposed too often. This falls at the feet of Tannenbaum and Grier, with a side-eye glance at Gase and Burke.

3. Man, did we miss Ryan Tannehill.Jay Cutler. Enough said. Seriously, though... somebody here posted that RT's legs alone would have accounted for about 3 more first downs per game. I agree, and this may well have made the difference of 2 or 3 victories. Matt Moore proved (again) that he's no more than a serviceable backup.

4. There was promising development from some young players.Kenyan Drake, Xavien Howard and Jordan Phillips head the list here, as they looked to be pieces to build around. Add in the two rookie DTs and a mostly solid season from our rookie punter, as well as the encouraging signs we got from Raekwon McMillan and there is room for some optimism here. The flip side is that other players ended up being monumental disappointments. Byron Maxwell. Julius Thomas. Isaac Asiata. Charles Harris. Devante Parker. Jay Ajayi.

Bottom line, Gase and company have a big job ahead of them just to get the team back to being relevant.

- Tannenbaum, Grier and Gase will all return with the same roles/influence

- Miami currently picks 11th in the draft (barring trades)

- Tannehill will return as starting QB

- Re-signing Landry is a priority

- Miami currently has about $17 million in cap space

- J. Thomas, Timmons and J. James will be released (frees up $22 million)

- Miami will ask Suh to restructure his deal (frees up $12 million)

- Tannehill and Pouncey may be asked to restructure their deals (could free up $9 million)

- Wake could be asked to renegotiate his deal (currently at $8.6 million)

I mentioned (and called it, patting myself on back) a lot of this stuff a month ago as what I thought Miami would do. If Miami stays put at the 11th pick keep your eyes on the following early draft targets:

- Baker Mayfield, QB OK (assassin style QB)

- Roquan Smith, LB GA (hybrid type that Matt Burke mentioned)

- Rashaan Evans, LB AL (perfect Timmons replacement)

- Vita Vea, DT UW (mammoth DT with great motor)

- Derwin James, S FSU (would allow McDonald to become hybrid)

- Marcus Davenport, DE LAT (mammoth DE)

- Clelin Ferrell, DE Clem (another big DE)

]]>dejamroz@gmail.com (Dan Jamroz)FeaturedBlogTue, 02 Jan 2018 12:55:39 +0000The question on everyone's mind: Should the Dolphins draft a QB in the first round?http://phinfever.com/index.php/9-blog/346-the-question-on-everyone-s-mind-should-the-dolphins-draft-a-qb-in-the-first-round
http://phinfever.com/index.php/9-blog/346-the-question-on-everyone-s-mind-should-the-dolphins-draft-a-qb-in-the-first-round

I will say what is becoming painfully obvious to everyone look at this QB crop - it was highly overrated going into this season and there is not a prospect who is graded as highly as even Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota (both who have struggled a lot this year).

Count me in as someone who thinks QB is a need early, but at the right time. The ONLY QB I'm comfortable drafting on Day 1 is Baker Mayfield but even he has potential issues. New rumor is Cleveland GM John Dorsey has been a fan for a long time and if Mayfield checks the boxes in interviews then he'll be the 1st overall pick and paired with a veteran.

I do not like Josh Allen or Josh Rosen, at all. Stay away. Lamar Jackson is very intriguing, but I think you can find a better player with that early of a pick. Sam Darnold looks to be going back to school and I read a very scary comparison by one scout calling him another Jay Cutler (not personality-wise, but decision making issues).

Miami should really be doing their homework on Luke Falk, Kurt Benkert and Mason Rudolph. Those are Rounds 2-4 type guys. Just recall that for every Kirk Cousins there are guys like Connor Cook, Matt Barkley, Ryan Mallett, Brad Kayaaa, etc. who all killed it in college but need serious adjustments for the pros.

One option I think Miami should seriously explore is seeing if they can swap out that Ajayi pick for a young QB already in the NFL. Some guy maybe Gase liked but didn't get his hands on in the last draft or two. It has worked to an extent by trading a 5th for Stephone Anthony (you get a guy who can play at this level).

My biggest fear about running to the podium for a QB (just to get one early) is you end up back in 2011 where outside of Cam Newton that group was a colossal failure (Locker, Gabbert, Ponder). Yet in Round 2 you had Dalton and Kaepernick who proved they could have some success.

We just need to be realistic about what a rookie QB will be, especially without a star studded cast to lift him up. Goff was a bust last year and Wentz's star faded quickly. Guys like Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco had stellar support systems. Once Flacco lost that defense and running game he become a bottom third QB in the league. Matt Ryan had a lot of garbage time stat padding years until Kyle Shanahan transformed his offense.

I know I'm a broken record on the guy but watch out for Luke Falk. He'll need some adjustment but he has the attitude and accuracy Gase will love. He'll drop because he's in a goofy college system, his arm strength is average (Kirk Cousins type) and he has potential concussion issues. But he scans the field, throws with great touch and has an accurate deep ball (like what Matt Moore used to have).

Matt Cannata tweeting that the big questions for Miami right now are is Mike Tannenbaum safe, which assistants will Gase fire and what will Miami do with Jarvis Landry.

Remember when I mentioned Cannata was tweeting about the tension between Gase and Tannenbaum? He's saying its now about who will "win" in this battle.

Before I go further, Omar Kelly tweeted that Gase was able to get everything he wanted this offseason (retaining Branch, Stills and Alonso, signing Cutler). So how will Ross view that?

Back to the topic at hand - Matt tweeted that Gase and Vance Joseph wanted a 3-4 defense but agreed to stick with a 4-3 due to personnel. Sounds like they could be thinking of changing to a 3-4 and Gase may target current Chicago DC Vic Fangio (again, going with his guys) when that staff gets fired. Matt Burke is supposedly on the hot seat.

Now for Landry. Cannata confirms that despite denials he was being shopped at the trade deadline. Armando recently wrote that Miami was satisfied with Landry's professional growth this year and ready to re-sign him. But as of the other day there was Twitter talk that they will not overpay (remember, he wants to be a top paid receiver). Cannata says he isn't sure whether it was Gase or the brass who is looking to have Landry shipped away. Gase and Landry had a shouting match on Sunday and some have been saying that wasn't the first time.

This where things get moving. Over the last few years just about every other position has seen either pricey free agents/re-signings, trade acquisitions or high draft picks used to overhaul the unit. Perhaps only QB has received less attention. The Laremy Tunsil pick in 2016 was mere chance due to immaturity. Tunsil may still blossom into his Pro Bowl talent level, and he has improved a lot as the year has gone on, but he is not irreplaceable at this point. Don't fret, he sticks.

The OL is on the books for nearly $25 million in 2018. Currently on the roster are Laremy Tunsil, Ted Larsen, Mike Pouncey, Jesse Davis, Ja'Waun James (they would be projected starters), Isaac Asiata, Eric Smith and Zach Sterup. Free agents include Jermon Bushrod, Anthony Steen, Jake Brendel, Sam Young and John Denney (I guess long snapper can be associated with OL).

Laremy Tunsil is sticking around. According to the beat writers the staff likes Jesse Davis and considers him a potential starting RT. Ted Larsen only costs $2 million and gives you flexibility at guard and center. He stays. Eric Smith showed promise before injury and will have a chance to be a solid backup. He stays. Anthony Steen and Jake Brendel probably get non guaranteed deals. John Denney gets his usually $1 million and is great at his job.

The bigger names become big question marks. The writing is on the wall for Ja'Waun James. Miami saves $9.3 million by cutting him and Gase's comments don't show a lot of support. Jermon Bushrod is not being re-signed again. Mike Pouncey costs $9 million against the cap, frees up $7 million if cut, or can be restructured to lessen his hit to about $5 million. His play is declining but he is a locker room leader and a Gase guy. He gets restructured.

Zach Sterup is a recent waiver claim who probably gets cut. Isaac Asiata was a Day 3 pick who will be 26 next year. If he can't get snaps when the line is this decimated then why waste a roster spot. Both get cut to free up $1 million.

So after the signings, releases and restructures, Miami adds $13 million to its cap space for a total of $21.8 million. There is now plenty of cheap, experienced depth. There are couple of guys who can challenge for snaps, but clearly there are major holes and questions.

Will Miami finally spend on a big, free agent OL? Let's revisit the job security questions of Adam Gase and Mike Tannenbaum. Gase should be in the clear for at least 2 or 3 more seasons given Ross's pursuit of him. Tannenbaum, while probably never being fired, has maybe another offseason with say in the matter. I just don't see Ross letting him buy his way out of a problem. If the offense fails again mightily in 2018 then a complete reset will happen. That is when they spend.

In my previous write up I mentioned using a draft pick on TE. That may still happen, but this AJ Derby guy might erase the need to do that. That doesn't mean he is a huge answer, but he has put up numbers and can combine with Grey and Fasano to hold it down for 2018. That 3rd day pick now has returned for use (for our purpose of discussion).

With a top 10 pick Miami will likely have the option of securing OT Connor Williams or OG Quentin Nelson. Both are plug and play starters on Day 1 (barring bad medicals for Williams). There are several other 1st Round options but they don't warrant that high of a pick. The Tannenbaum philosophy is not to spend a premium pick on an OG, but quality OG play can really elevate the run game which sets up the play action passing game that worked so effectively in 2016. I believe Tannenbaum sticks to his approach and avoids OL here, especially with some really premiere defensive options potentially on the board.

My hunch is Miami doubles down with a Day 2 pick and 4th Rounder to address the need. Keep your eyes on OG Will Hernandez, OT/OG Braden Smith and a very likely OT/C Mason Cole (hint hint, Michigan guy). Cole was previously a potential 1st Round C who was asked to play LT this year due to his previous experience there. He is exactly the kind of prospect who can be a Day 1 starter almost anywhere on the line. Will he be Pro Bowl caliber? Who knows, but right now Miami should be looking for above average play without paying $9 million/year for it.

If the drafted guys or the young depth disappoints during camp then maybe Miami makes a Bushrod panic move prior to training camp.

Tunsil - Drafted guy - Pouncey - Drafted guy - Davis. Two rookie OGs and barely proven RT? Yuck! Take two steps back. Maybe Larsen starts at RG for the time being unless a drafted option really shines. As for Davis, the only reason he isn't at RT now is no one is capable of holding down the RG position. Miami's hands are tied, they are in cap purgatory and the MO is not to buy your way out of a problem. Spending two reasonably high picks, further investing in Davis, and continued improvement from Tunsil could go a long way in reshaping this over priced albatross. If Larsen gets outplayed by a rookie, or one of Brendel/Steen/Smith improves enough to supplant him then we could be looking at three new starter on the line next year while trimming a lot of bloated salary.

To be honest, I don't feel a heck of a lot better after writing that. Sometimes reality just hurts.