Bryan Jordan has a pretty good idea of who can most influence Ohio’s economy in the months ahead – and it won’t be the next governor.

“A big part of it is determined at the federal level, and much of that is the Federal Reserve,” said Jordan, chief economist for Nationwide Insurance. “(Fed Chairman) Ben Bernanke will have much more pull than anyone in Ohio.”

Such thinking runs counter to gubernatorial stump speeches by Republican candidate John Kasich and Democratic incumbent Ted Strickland. Both claim to know what is best to turn around Ohio’s economy, whether it is tax policy, business regulation, work-force training, or how the state runs its economic development programs.

But campaign talk may not offer a realistic appraisal of the influence a governor or any state official can have on reversing Ohio’s economic slide over the past decade, said Jordan and others with an understanding of state, national and global economics.

“At the margins it is possible,” Jordan said, “but it’s widely overstated on the ways a (state) executive can change the near-term trajectory of the economy.”

‘Timing is everything’

Policy stands aside, the next Ohio governor likely will benefit from an expected uptick in the economy as the nation slowly emerges from its worst recession in more than 70 years, said Greg Valliere, chief political strategist for the Potomac Research Group in Washington, D.C., where he coordinates political and economic research for institutional investors.

“Timing is everything,” Valliere said during a recent stop in Columbus, “and I think the economy will improve in the next year. Whoever gets elected will get credit for that – whether he deserves it or not.”

Valliere said he doesn’t know Strickland but has sympathy for any governor in office during the recession.

“They are affected by so many things out of their control,” he said, such as the housing crash and banking meltdown. “If Ohio rebounds, it will be driven by larger tides floating through the economy.”

Jordan thinks there are three keys to boosting a state’s economy – population growth, labor force participation and productivity increases. Ohio does not fare well on the first two counts.

Nearly flat for more than a decade, Ohio’s population growth rate is among the weakest, Jordan said. In addition, the state’s aging population means fewer people are working and contributing to economic growth.

But productivity gains have been strong in manufacturing, which remains a key cog in Ohio’s economy, he said.

“That bodes well for us,” Jordan said, “but long term it will not offset the weaknesses in population (growth) and labor force participation.”

With its high concentration of automotive and durable goods manufacturers, Ohio’s economy can be expected to keep performing below the national average for job creation and employment, said Robert Dye, senior economist for PNC Financial Services in Pittsburgh.

“We can say Ohio’s mix of industries was hurt worse than average in the recession,” he said, “but we don’t want to characterize it in an extreme way.”

Ohio’s unemployment rate, Dye said, was already higher than the nation’s before the recession, and that gap – currently 10.1 percent in Ohio but 9.6 percent nationally – has remained about the same since then. In addition, Ohio’s job loss rate in the recession was about 6 percent, compared with 4 percent nationally.

Much of Ohio’s success, Dye said, will hinge on its ability to broaden its mix of industries to include more high technology, biotech and clean-energy enterprises. State officials can help, he said, by gearing tax policies toward business expansion and creating a stable regulatory environment.

Gloom or boom?

Perhaps that could help lift the gloom that hangs over Ohio’s business climate.

A recent PNC poll of owners of small and midsize businesses found just 6 percent of those surveyed in Ohio expect to increase employment in the next six months and 10 percent plan to cut jobs.

That is a slow growth path compared with national averages of 22 percent of small and midsize business owners expecting to add workers and 12 percent of that group planning to cut jobs.