Keyword: kim jong il

When long-time North Korean dictator Kim Il Sung died in 1994, nervous South Koreans rushed to the stores and hoarded basic necessities such as rice, canned meat and instant noodles in fear of another Korean War. The "Great Leader" was dead and his son, Kim Jong Il was taking over. This was uncharted territory.

On the surface, North Korea is calmly coping with the sudden death of its Dear Leader Kim Jong Il. His youngest son and heir, Kim Jong Un, seems to be in charge, smoothly preparing a state funeral for the 28th. Pyongyang media already call him “The Great Successor.”

North Koreans have entered 12 days of mourning in honor of their longtime leader Kim Jong Il — a complex dictator known as much for pursuing nuclear weaponry while his people starved as his zippered jumpsuits and obsession with Hennessy cognac.

Kim Jong Il's reported death on December 17 is the biggest shock to the country's regime since the passing of his father in 1994. Forecasting what will happen to an authoritarian regime after a leadership succession is inherently rather speculative, and nowhere is this more true than in North Korea. However, we can venture a few observations, and in very broad terms estimate the probability of various types of scenarios.

The King is dead! Long live the King! The old European cry when a monarch died and a new one took over was meant to prevent any argument over succession and make sure the throne was never empty. And this could just as well apply to North Korea today. Kim Jong Il had already a year before he died anointed his successor, his youngest son Kim Jong Un.

The news out of North Korea that leader Kim Jong Il has died, while surprising, is not completely unexpected. Faced with serious health concerns over the last few years, the North Korean leader began to put in place a plan for his son to take over the reins of power.

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