tag:theconversation.com,2011:/au/topics/douglas-carswell-12124/articlesDouglas Carswell – The Conversation2017-03-17T14:38:23Ztag:theconversation.com,2011:article/746512017-03-17T14:38:23Z2017-03-17T14:38:23ZDown but not out: diagnosing UKIP's biggest problems<p>UKIP seems to have lurched from crisis to crisis since achieving its founding ambition – to take the UK out of the European Union. However, UKIP still has noteworthy support. It might be down, but it certainly isn’t out.</p>
<p>The first and most obvious setback for UKIP was the loss of its charismatic leader, Nigel Farage. Paul Nuttall, his replacement, has been accused of being a fantasist by many of his opponents. Either way, he is widely thought of as having failed his first big test as leader by losing a by-election in <a href="https://theconversation.com/stoke-isnt-the-end-for-ukip-but-the-big-problem-it-faces-is-now-clear-73613">Stoke</a> following the resignation of Labour MP Tristram Hunt. </p>
<p>Nuttall unwisely raised excessive expectations about winning the contest, and when that win failed to materialise he and his party looked like bigger losers than they were in reality. A win in the by-election would have confirmed the wisdom of his strategy to pursue Labour in its <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/nov/28/ukip-labour-paul-nuttall-douglas-carswell">heartland</a>.</p>
<p>Instead, the Stoke failure produced a lot of negative news coverage to the effect that <a href="http://uk.businessinsider.com/ukip-is-close-to-being-finished-says-the-partys-biggest-donor-2017-2">it was all over for the party</a>.</p>
<p>In truth, the anti-Labour strategy was always much riskier than it appeared. UKIP hoped to appeal to Labour voters who had deserted their party to support Brexit in the June referendum. But those voters couldn’t be relied upon.</p>
<p>A little known fact of the 2015 general election was that while a UKIP intervention in a constituency had the effect of reducing the Conservative vote share across the country, it actually served to increase the Labour vote share. This was because UKIP took more votes away from parties other than Labour – notably the Conservatives.</p>
<h2>Winning to losing</h2>
<p>The party also faces the “winners curse” after backing the Leave side in the referendum campaign. This has greatly reduced the political impact of the one issue that UKIP very much owned in the minds of the voters. The electorate is no longer focusing on whether the UK should leave the EU, but rather how it should leave. </p>
<p>Although Nuttall has argued that the party will act as the “watchdog” of Brexit, this claim has been weakened by the fact that <a href="http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21714986-government-promises-truly-global-britain-after-brexit-plausible-theresa-may-opts">Theresa May appears to be heading for a hard Brexit</a> – outside of the single market and the customs union.</p>
<p>The average voter would find it difficult to identify a distinctive UKIP issue which has not been adopted by May and the Conservatives already. The slogan “<a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36582567">take back control</a>” – used to great effect in the referendum campaign – is much more potent than “UKIP will keep an eye on the government”. </p>
<p>UKIP has also lost its status of being the clear “none of the above” choice for voters who are disgruntled with the performance of the three major parties. It had this status when the Liberal Democrats were in government during the coalition years, but now that the latter party has gone into opposition it is once again attracting disgruntled floating voters, but also “Remoaners” who do not accept the decision of the referendum.</p>
<p>UKIP therefore faces a new competitor, since the Liberal Democrats were only 1% behind the party in <a href="https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/03/10/voting-intention-conservatives-44-labour-25-8-9-ma/">voting intentions in a YouGov poll</a> conducted on March 8 and 9 this year.</p>
<p>On top of all this, UKIP has been racked with infighting among its leadership. This was evident when Farage and the millionaire UKIP donor Arron Banks called for the party’s sole representative in the House of Commons, Douglas Carswell, to be sacked from the party. Banks even went as far as to say that <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/arron-banks-ukip-donor-douglas-carswell-stand-against-election-clacton-essex-nigel-farage-a7603516.html">he would run against Carswell</a> in the 2020 general election in his Clacton constituency if Carswell did not step down.</p>
<h2>Potential future opportunities</h2>
<p>After all these problems, it is really a remarkable achievement that the party obtained 11% of voting intentions in the YouGov poll referred to earlier. This is only slightly down on the <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results">12.6% vote share</a> the party won in the 2015 general election. </p>
<p>This result is a product of the fact that there is still a wave of right-wing populism growing across Europe and in the United States which underpins support for UKIP. This <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/project/Brexit-Why-Britain-Voted-to-Leave-the-European-Union-Cambridge-University-Press-2017-with-Harold-Clarke-and-Matthew-Goodwin">wave of support</a> is based on a syndrome of economic grievances, socio-cultural threats and political distrust with establishment parties.</p>
<p>Since it was <a href="http://www.ukip.org/about">founded in 1993</a>, UKIP has portrayed itself as a “common-sense” party that champions the interests of ordinary people —- interests that it claims are subverted by a cartel of unresponsive cultural, economic and political elites. Those grievances have not yet gone away and if a hard Brexit helps to precipitate another recession then they will be a potent source support for the party in the future. UKIP may continue to have support, either in its present form or in the form of a newly rebranded radical right party.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/74651/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Whiteley receives funding from the ESRC. </span></em></p>The upsetters have achieved their founding ambition, now they need to work out what to do next.Paul Whiteley, Professor, Department of Government, University of EssexLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/620202016-07-05T11:31:50Z2016-07-05T11:31:50ZStick, twist or dissolve? Three options for UKIP after Nigel Farage<p>The result of the EU referendum could be considered the ultimate victory for Nigel Farage and his party. UKIP was founded as a single-issue political party – its sole aim being to leave the European Union.</p>
<p>Yet, to the surprise of many, Farage has resigned as UKIP leader – and <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-resignation-that-never-was-why-ukip-needs-farage-for-its-next-big-fight-41641">this time, for good</a>. Even though he said he’d like to play a role in Brexit negotiations, the British government is highly unlikely to have such a farewell gift in mind for him.</p>
<p>His decision will spark a leadership contest but it also provides an opportunity for UKIP to rethink its priorities now that its primary goal has been achieved. It can capitalise on the gains made under Farage but it needs to combine that success with a greater sense of unity – which never seemed possible during his tenure.</p>
<h2>A star on the rise</h2>
<p>Over the past two decades, UKIP has gained considerable influence in the European Parliament. It is now the largest British party represented in Strasbourg following a stunning victory in the 2014 European elections – although one could argue that the biggest winner in that particular vote was <a href="http://www.ukpolitical.info/european-parliament-election-turnout.htm">abstention</a>.</p>
<p>UKIP’s influence in shaping the British government’s European agenda cannot be ignored. It wasn’t part of the official Vote Leave campaign but it inspired many of the policies on which the campaign was based. The idea of introducing an Australian points-based system to lower net migration <a href="https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/ukipdev/pages/1103/attachments/original/1429295050/UKIPManifesto2015.pdf?1429295050">originally came out of UKIP</a>, for example. </p>
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<p>Farage’s departure does not mean UKIP will disappear. It is polling as the third largest political force post-Brexit <a href="https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/749944613566316544">with 15% of voting intentions</a>.</p>
<p>But whether the party can sustain this all depends on if it can re-brand itself after Brexit. It will need a strong, charismatic leader who has clear views on what the party should do, and who can generate media attention. Douglas Carswell, the party’s sole MP, <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36705033">has already implied that he will not stand</a>, although he believes the party should not become an “angry and nativist” movement.</p>
<p>The other bookmakers’ favourites are MEPs Paul Nuttall, the current deputy leader, and Steven Woolfe, the party’s migration spokesman. Suzanne Evans, the former deputy leader, has also declared her interest, but is currently suspended from the party for <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/mar/23/ukip-suzanne-evans-suspended-disloyalty-nigel-farage">disloyalty</a>. </p>
<p>Three scenarios seem imaginable, and it mostly depends on the kind of new relationship negotiated between the UK and the EU.</p>
<h2>1. Rebrand</h2>
<p>This is probably the most likely scenario, since it was envisaged way before the referendum. In this possible future, UKIP is made over to become the English nationalist UKIP (or EIP).</p>
<p>Even back during the 2014 Scottish independence referendum campaign, there were clear indications that <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/12/nigel-farage-ukip-english-ignored-scottish-referendum">Farage backed the creation of a devolved English parliament</a>. He claimed there is no reason why England should not have devolved powers like Scotland or Wales. While UKIP’s recent success in the <a href="https://theconversation.com/wales-ukip-and-plaid-gain-new-assembly-seats-as-labour-holds-on-to-power-59012">Welsh elections</a> could be an obstacle to this alternative, the party might also campaign for transforming the UK into a real federal state, with increased devolution for everyone. </p>
<h2>2. Status quo</h2>
<p>If the UK negotiates a deal with the EU that continues to allow EU migration, very many Leave voters will feel betrayed. Immigration was a key factor in the Leave victory and it would be surprising if the UK didn’t seek a deal that would limit free movement to some extent – at least temporarily.</p>
<p>But if the deal is judged unsatisfactory, UKIP could then make significant electoral gains in its current form. It could argue that the UK has not really left the EU if immigration continues to be allowed, and continue to campaign on the immigration issue.</p>
<h2>3. Disintegration</h2>
<p>Whoever becomes the new UKIP leader will have some big shoes to fill. Farage’s populism and charisma were central to the party’s surge. Whoever replaces him will have to keep the momentum going. But they will have to do a much better job at uniting the party than Farage ever could.</p>
<p>If the new leader fails to bring the party together behind a solid and consensual political agenda, some members might defect. Before Farage’s resignation, one of UKIP’s key donors, Arron Banks, hinted that <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/29/leave-donor-plans-new-party-to-replace-ukip-without-farage">he would create a brand new political party capitalising on the Leave momentum</a>. He also claimed that “Ukip needs to be reformed root and branch”. This move was rather surprising, and Farage’s decision to resign could have been linked to Banks’ interview. Perhaps now that Farage has resigned, Banks will give up his plans to found a new party.</p>
<p>UKIP now finds itself in a similar position to Labour and the Conservatives. Despite having set itself up as a million miles from the mainstream parties, it now faces the same, crucial existential challenges in the wake of Brexit. These will need to be addressed sooner rather than later.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/62020/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Benjamin Leruth does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>What's a single-issue party to do once it has achieved it's only ambition?Benjamin Leruth, Research Associate in Politics and Social Policy, University of KentLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/491862015-11-09T16:42:11Z2015-11-09T16:42:11ZExplainer: how will the official Brexit referendum group be chosen?<p>And then there were two. With the launch of <a href="http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/">Vote Leave</a>, there is now a second major group campaigning for Britain to exit the European Union, alongside <a href="http://leave.eu/">Leave.EU</a>. Both have serious financial backing and both have considerable numbers of people working for them but only one can become the lead campaign for people wanting to leave the EU. But how do we decide which it should be?</p>
<p>The first question is why an official face is needed at all. In part it’s because there’s a statutory requirement to have such a grouping on either side of a referendum (of which more later).</p>
<p>More generally, though, it’s because a referendum is meant to be an opportunity for a debate about a matter of public interest. As such, it makes sense to have a group dedicated to providing information, guidance and justification for the options being offered. And because it’s a public matter, having official groups provides more confidence that what they do is broadly fair and accurate.</p>
<p>We still don’t know when the official lead campaigns will be chosen, as it all hinges on legislation that is still making its way through parliament, but a clear framework is already in place to help make that decision when the time comes. This was set out in the 2000 <a href="http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2000/41/contents">Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act</a>(PPERA).</p>
<p>The aim of the legislation was to modernise electoral practice, which had previously been rather chaotic. Most importantly, it established the Electoral Commission as the body with oversight of all matters electoral, including party finance, electoral law and (key here) anything to do with referendums.</p>
<p>Despite the current government’s efforts to circumvent its role in relation to the current <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-22518403">referendum</a>, the Electoral Commission has both reasserted itself and been backed by parliament as the key arbiter – most obviously in the matter of the <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/sep/01/eu-referendum-cameron-urged-to-change-wording-of-preferred-question">phrasing of the question</a>.</p>
<h2>The choice</h2>
<p>PPERA sets out the role of the Electoral Commission in determining who will be the official campaign group for each side. There must be one on each side and both must meet particular standards.</p>
<p>Fortunately, the commission has already had <a href="http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0010/164395/sp-ris-designation.pdf">practice</a> in deciding such things with the Scottish independence referendum last year. That process, which also involved deciding between different groups, established a <a href="http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/find-information-by-subject/elections-and-referendums/upcoming-elections-and-referendums/eu-referendum">number of criteria</a>.</p>
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<p>The commission looks at how each group’s goals fit with the referendum outcome it supports, how much support it has to become the official campaign and whether it has the resources to do it. It also looks at how the group intends to engage with other campaigners, to ensure that it might reasonably be considered to represent the full spectrum of views on that side. Necessarily, that’s hard to demonstrate, but a willingness to talk about allowing different voices to come through is a key part of that.</p>
<p>As <a href="http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2015/09/which-organisation-should-be-the-official-leave-the-eu-campaign-the-answer-is-clear.html">Mark Wallace</a>, executive editor of Conservative Home has argued, it comes down to cash, competence and cross-party-ness. While Wallace felt Vote Leave would make the stronger candidate, it might not be quite so simple in practice. </p>
<h2>The contenders</h2>
<p>It’s worth recalling, for a start, that Vote Leave is <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-battle-to-lead-the-brexit-campaign-48480">much more focused</a> on securing the official title than its rival Leave.EU. It has stressed its cross-party and non-party credentials and has put in much more groundwork into the campaign.</p>
<p>Leave.EU, by contrast, has the feel of a group much more clearly focused around the interests of its founder, Arron Banks. This impression was only reinforced when UKIP leader Nigel Farage decided to back the campaign (Banks is UKIP’s largest donor). That UKIP’s only MP, <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/11922172/Douglas-Carswell-Why-Im-backing-Vote-Leave-in-the-EU-referendum.html">Douglas Carswell</a>, has chosen the opposite team hasn’t helped matters much.</p>
<p>However, both groups have made efforts in the right direction. They have been bringing in different voices, putting substantial funding behind their organisations and generally working hard to be credible options. If Farage can bring UKIP’s supporters and organisation with him – Carswell notwithstanding – then Leave.EU will gain a significant advantage. Vote Leave does not have an equivalent body of local activists to tap into.</p>
<p>And all of this speaks to a bigger matter. Ultimately, the designation issue will not be the crucial one in this referendum, so long as the two groups (plus any others that pop up along the way) can work together.</p>
<p>This happened in Scotland, where the No campaign benefited from the support of various groups. Whether the leave camp can be as civil with one another is another matter, given the awkward personality politics involved. Whoever wins the designation will have to remember that this is only one (small) step in a much bigger fight.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/49186/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Simon Usherwood does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>There are two groups vying to lead the Brexit camp but only one can become the official lead campaign.Simon Usherwood, Senior Lecturer in Politics, University of SurreyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/343142014-11-17T11:40:54Z2014-11-17T11:40:54ZRight tactic, wrong target: Tories can't beat Reckless with carpet bagging claims<p>You don’t want to vote for him. He grew up in London and went to Oxford, to study politics (of all things). He’s worked as a banker and as a political researcher. And he only moved here to become an MP, the swine.</p>
<p>This is the message being delivered to voters in Rochester and Strood on a leaflet being pushed through their doors ahead of the by-election taking place in the constituency on November 21. The leaflet is from the Conservative Party and it takes aim at Mark Reckless, the MP who defected to UKIP earlier this year.</p>
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<span class="caption">Reckless tactics?</span>
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<p>It’s easy to mock the leaflet and <a href="http://politicalscrapbook.net/2014/11/tories-attack-ukip-candidate-mark-reckless-for-attending-oxford-rochester-and-strood/">plenty have</a>. Reckless has held the seat for the Conservatives since 2010 and the party seemed to have been content to put him forward as their candidate again in 2015 had he not switched sides. </p>
<p>Voters may well feel confused about why Reckless is so terrible now if he was just fine and dandy as a Tory candidate. They may also be wondering why the Conservatives are criticising him for characteristics that would appear to apply to <a href="https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/533337209282519040">a rather large proportion</a> of the Conservative parliamentary party. Went to Oxford, to study politics? Who can they mean?</p>
<p>But just because something’s cynical doesn’t mean it won’t work. There’s plenty of research showing just how good that leaflet might be at pressing voters’ buttons.</p>
<p>For example, the leaflet talks about Kelly Tolhurst, the Conservative candidate, having gone to the local high school but doesn’t mention any university education. Mark Reckless, we learn, went to school in Wiltshire and then on to study at Oxford. As hard as it is for those who work in education to take sometimes, voters actually prefer non-university educated candidates.</p>
<p><a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1467-9248.12048/abstract">One experiment</a> found voters preferred candidates who’d left school at 18 to those who left at 16, although even those who left school at 16 are preferred to graduates. The experiment didn’t specifically look at Oxford, but I think we can guess what that’s meant to imply. It also found that studying politics and having a background in politics – just like Reckless – made voters think of candidates as more experienced but didn’t make them more likely to want that person as their MP.</p>
<p>Another <a href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1467-856X.12002/abstract">experiment</a> also compared occupational backgrounds. This probably won’t come as a shock, but people running local businesses are noticeably more popular than those involved in finance. The same study, incidentally, found that otherwise identical men and women are seen as equally electable by voters, it’s just that the men are seen as more experienced, while the women are more approachable.</p>
<h2>Keeping it close to home</h2>
<p>The key facet of the Tory message in its Rochester leaflet is local, local, local. All six of the bullet points describing Kelly Tolhurst focus on her local links. She was born and raised in the constituency, she went to the local school and runs a business in the area. She’s been a councillor where she could be found “fighting to make our schools better” (note “our schools”, not “your schools”) and she’s even got a six-point plan to improve her community. Reckless, by contrast, is presented as a carpet-bagger, or what the French call a parachutiste.</p>
<p>From the outside, it’s tempting to be a bit sniffy about this sort of local appeal. It all seems a bit privet-hedge, a bit insular, a bit parochial. But there’s plenty of evidence to show it matters to voters, and more than many of the other things that commentators often bang on about.</p>
<p>Being local was, for example, the top of a list of demographic characteristics <a href="http://www.palgrave-journals.com/bp/journal/v8/n2/abs/bp201228a.html">that voters say</a> they want from their MP. For <a href="http://revolts.co.uk/?p=750">many voters</a>, it is as important, or even more important than, having someone who shares their political views.</p>
<p>The experiments described above found that living outside the constituency (even if prepared to move if selected) was enough to generate a 15% swing against a candidate. And some work done by Jocelyn Evans, reported in a <a href="http://www.amazon.co.uk/Sex-Lies-Ballot-Box-elections/dp/1849547556/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&amp;ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1416134489&amp;sr=1-1">new book on British elections</a>, found there was a significant difference when you looked at the locations of candidates in both local and general elections and their electoral success.</p>
<p>Looked at this way, that Conservative leaflet is perhaps more astute than it first appears. It’s almost as if someone at Conservative HQ has been reading the academic literature on this.</p>
<p>While the leaflet may be well pitched, it alone can’t propel Tolhurst to victory on November 21. No leaflet makes or breaks an election and in this particular case we have the added complication that Mark Reckless, as an incumbent MP, may already have a negated many of his supposed disadvantages. Even before his victory in the seat in 2010, he’d stood in its predecessor seat in 2001 and 2005. He may be a parachutiste, but he’s a parachutiste who landed safely some time ago and has now firmly dug in.</p>
<p>What’s more, some voters may well have the same mocking reaction as many other did on seeing that leaflet. The polls, the bookies, and most observers have Mark Reckless on course to hold his seat on Thursday for his new party. But even if the Conservatives lose, that leaflet is still smarter politics than it might seem.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/34314/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Philip Cowley currently receives funding from the Leverhulme Trust for work on MPs and parliament. </span></em></p>You don’t want to vote for him. He grew up in London and went to Oxford, to study politics (of all things). He’s worked as a banker and as a political researcher. And he only moved here to become an MP…Philip Cowley, Professor, School of Politics and International Relations, University of NottinghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/328332014-10-10T12:12:14Z2014-10-10T12:12:14ZTwo by-elections, one winner: the rise and rise of UKIP<p>The <a href="https://theconversation.com/drafts/32757/edit">results of the by-elections </a>that have just taken place in Clacton and Heywood and Middleton are virtually impossible to spin for either the Conservatives or Labour. Predictably, each side of Britain’s crumbling two-party divide has attempted to paint the results as worse for the other. But the simple truth is, the outcomes are good news for UKIP and nobody else.</p>
<p>In Clacton, UKIP candidate Douglas Carswell trounced all opposition. Labour won the Heywood and Middleton seat but only narrowly saw off the upstart party.</p>
<p>This confirms a pattern that has been emerging over the past couple of years. UKIP is uniquely placed to appeal to voters in both southern counties and in northern towns. Certainly, there are areas in which the party has struggled to break through, such as Greater London, Scotland and the central cores of England’s big cities, but UKIP’s mission to displace the Liberal Democrats as the UK’s third party is now well advanced.</p>
<p>There are signs that the penny has dropped, at least for the Tories. They have begun to adopt the mind games so beloved of football managers, claiming that yesterday’s result <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/oct/10/ukip-byelection-surge-alarm-clock-moment-grant-shapps">plays into Labour’s hands</a>.</p>
<p>But these by-elections confirm the worst fears of both main parties. Carswell has taken what was a safe Conservative seat and Labour’s Liz McInnes came very close indeed to losing what was a safe Labour seat, securing victory by just 617 votes. UKIP stands in the way of a parliamentary majority, or possibly even a viable coalition, after the 2015 General Election.</p>
<h2>Back to the drawing board</h2>
<p>Until relatively recently, the script for the 2015 general election appeared to have been written and it was a broadly familiar one. Both the main parties could count on winning hundreds of safe seats each and the electoral battle would be won or lost in a smaller number of key marginal seats.</p>
<p>The decline in Liberal Democrat support and the failure of the Tory-backed bill that would <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-21235169">change parliamentary boundaries</a> tipped the balance in Labour’s favour. But Labour grew complacent as a result and even assumed that UKIP support could only serve to harm the Tories. The Heywood and Middleton contest proved this misguided, to say the least.</p>
<p>UKIP’s success at the European elections was the other major game changer. The party claimed, with some legitimacy, to be the only party other than Labour or the Conservatives to win a UK-wide election since 1906.</p>
<h2>Smart tactics</h2>
<p>Meanwhile, UKIP has shown that fighting the next general election one by-election at a time suits it perfectly. The party now has an MP and has chalked up eight second places in by-elections since 2010, in areas as diverse as Barnsley Central, Rotherham, Middlesbrough, Eastleigh, South Shields, Wythenshawe and Sale East, Newark and, now, Heywood and Middleton. Each of these by-elections has helped boost UKIP’s funding drive, its membership, its media coverage and, crucially, the party’s collective self-belief.</p>
<p>Douglas Carswell’s victory, by a huge margin, will embolden other would-be defectors and will greatly enhance his own chances of holding Clacton for UKIP in 2015. All eyes now turn to Rochester and Strood, where <a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/ukips-mark-reckless-in-a-ninepoint-lead-over-tories-for-kent-seat-9775208.html">Mark Reckless’</a> chances of winning a second parliamentary seat for UKIP have been significantly lifted.</p>
<p>Rochester and Strood presents a major test for both of the main parties. The Conservatives must win if they are to prevent further defections (of MPs, members, donors and lifelong supporters at the ballot box). And, this close to a general election, Labour must now also demonstrate its ability to counter the relentless rise of UKIP.</p>
<p>A full general election campaign will still be an enormous challenge for UKIP and it will need to target its efforts carefully. But it will enter the election better resourced than any challenger to the big three in living memory. UKIP’s capacity to change constituency-level outcomes by grabbing 15-25% of the votes in key seats will matter just as much as its potential to win further seats outright. For both Labour and the Conservatives, this is unknown electoral territory.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/32833/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Stuart Wilks-Heeg receives funding from The Electoral Commission for research on electoral integrity in the UK. He is a member of the Board of Trustees of Democratic Audit.</span></em></p>The results of the by-elections that have just taken place in Clacton and Heywood and Middleton are virtually impossible to spin for either the Conservatives or Labour. Predictably, each side of Britain’s…Stuart Wilks-Heeg, Senior Lecturer in Social Policy, University of LiverpoolLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/327572014-10-10T05:45:55Z2014-10-10T05:45:55ZUKIP wins Commons seat as Carswell takes Clacton in landslide<p>UKIP has a seat in the House of Commons, after Douglas Carswell, the former Conservative MP who defected to UKIP, <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29549414">won back his Clacton seat</a> in an expected, but still convincing by-election victory for his new party.</p>
<p>Carswell won a huge 59.75% of the vote in the by-election, while his nearest rival Giles Watling, who replaced him as the Tory candidate in the seat, won just 24.6%. The Liberal Democrats lost their deposit. Anything other than an overwhelming win in a constituency <a href="http://www.progressonline.org.uk/2014/10/02/one-week-to-go-by-election-analysis/">identified as prime UKIP territory</a>, would have been an anti-climax in this by-election, for both Carswell and UKIP.</p>
<p>The second by-election of the day in the Heywood and Middleton constituency of Greater Manchester ended in a win for Labour candidate Liz McInnes – but only just. UKIP came close to pulling off a second, and even more spectacular, there too. McInnes secured 41% of the vote but UKIP’s candidate John Bickley made significant gains, ultimately taking 39%. Conservative candidate Iain Gartside came third with just 12% and Liberal Democrat, Anthony Smith, fourth with 5%.</p>
<p>McInnes’ predecessor Jim Dobbin had represented Heywood and Middleton for Labour from 1997 until his death earlier this year but this election looked uncertain at times. The result shows Labour was right to be worried about the UKIP threat.</p>
<p>No two by-elections are ever alike and this has rarely been illustrated quite so clearly as in Thursday’s contests. In the first, an MP who resigned from one party won his seat back for another and in the second, the party which looks most likely to form the next government was forced to fight hard to retain a seat which it won quite comfortably in the past. Nonetheless, the rise of UKIP was the story in both.</p>
<h2>Can he go the distance?</h2>
<p>As many defectors before Carswell have proved, the UKIP MP’s big test will be lasting past the next election. </p>
<p>In March 1973 the former Labour MP Dick Taverne caused a political sensation by winning his old seat of Lincoln as a “Democratic Labour” candidate. As a Labour defector, Taverne won a much greater share of the vote than he had received in the 1970 general election. But his success was short lived. Taverne retained Lincoln in the general election of February 1974 but his former party snatched it back in the October 1974 contest.</p>
<p>To the extent that Carswell has established a high profile in the media as well as within his constituency, the Taverne precedent provides grounds for concern. In the wake of the latter’s victory at Lincoln, the right-wing press hailed him as a heroic democratic champion, prophesying the imminent demise of the Labour Party. A year later Labour was back in office. Taverne’s high and strongly positive profile counted for little in a battle to form the next government.</p>
<h2>Fending off the upstarts</h2>
<p>Meanwhile, over in Heywood and Middleton, Labour had serious worries in the early part of the campaign. In the 2010 election Dobbin received just 40% of the vote and both the British National Party and UKIP fared respectably, so it had looked like this would be no easy win. And indeed it wasn’t. Nigel Farage has been visiting the constituency regularly during the election campaign and his efforts appear to have paid off.</p>
<p>UKIP’s strong performance compared to the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats might make headlines but should be received with caution. Some loyal supporters of the quarrelsome coalition partners must have been tempted to lend their votes to Labour in order to keep out UKIP.</p>
<p>The success of UKIP in Clacton and its gains in Heywood and Middleton is a big story but we should be careful not to get carried away. By-elections are, after all, events in which the usual mixture of local and national influences on voting behaviour are greatly distorted by the presence of undesirable intruders from the media and the political parties. It would be wrong to use the Clacton result as the basis for predictions about the general election – although it’s hard to resist.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/32757/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>UKIP has a seat in the House of Commons, after Douglas Carswell, the former Conservative MP who defected to UKIP, won back his Clacton seat in an expected, but still convincing by-election victory for…Mark Garnett, Senior Lecturer in Politics, Lancaster UniversityHelena Pillmoor, Doctoral Candidate , Lancaster UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/325472014-10-07T08:53:37Z2014-10-07T08:53:37ZA brief history of defection: parties can stand a few more UKIP losses<p>The Conservative party is shortly to face a high-profile by-election this week in the wake of the defection of Clacton MP, <a href="https://theconversation.com/douglas-carswell-by-election-is-a-rare-and-honourable-event-31060">Douglas Carswell</a>. Senior figures in the party are understood to be <a href="https://theconversation.com/temporary-truce-called-by-eurosceptic-tories-in-wake-of-ukip-defections-32405">deeply concerned</a> about losing more members to UKIP. But the history of defections in British politics suggests that the Tories can probably stand a few more losses.</p>
<p>UKIP has so far attracted three Conservative MPs. Bob Spink <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7360118.stm">resigned</a> from the Conservatives to support UKIP in 2008. He did not resign his seat to cause a by-election, but he was defeated at the general election in 2010. Carswell and Mark Reckless have both left the Conservatives this autumn to join UKIP and have resigned their seats to prompt by-elections. Carswell will fight for Clacton on October 9 and Reckless’ contest for Rochester and Strood is expected to take place on November 9.</p>
<h2>Surviving the exodus</h2>
<p>Mass defections from Britain’s political parties are rare, but not unprecedented. So far, they have never proved fatal to the party which lost the defectors, nor have they resulted in the formation of a new party with long-term viability.</p>
<p>In the 1880s, the Liberal party lost a significant group of its MPs when the Liberal Unionists left over their opposition to Irish Home Rule. The Liberal Unionists eventually merged with the Conservative Party in 1912. And in 1931 the Liberals lost 24 MPs to the newly-formed Liberal Nationals, whose diminished rump eventually merged with the Conservatives in the 1960s. More recently, in the 1980s, the Labour Party lost a significant number of defectors to the newly-formed Social Democratic Party (SDP). The SDP attracted a total of 28 sitting Labour MPs and one Conservative.</p>
<p>The SDP won a total of four by-elections after the defections. It took Crosby in November 1981, Glasgow Hillhead in March 1982, Portsmouth South in June 1984 and Greenwich in February 1987. But these were all newly-won seats. The only MP defecting to the SDP who resigned and re-contested his seat, Bruce Douglas-Mann, lost his by-election.</p>
<p>To compare the SDP and UKIP might imply a troubled future for Nigel Farage’s party. The SDP recorded <a href="http://www.liberalhistory.org.uk/item_single.php?item_id=72&amp;item=history">65,000 members</a> at the end of 1981 and peaked at 50.5% in opinion polls. So far, UKIP has just under 40,000 members and a high of 23% in opinion polls. </p>
<p>Despite its initial success, the SDP performed disappointingly in the 1983 general elections as part of an alliance with the Liberals, winning just six seats, and again in 1987, when it won just five seats. In 1988, the SDP merged with the Liberal Party to form the Liberal Democrats.</p>
<p>So far, the scale of defections from the Conservatives to UKIP is much smaller than the Labour exodus to the SDP. UKIP may, of course, attract more defectors, but the momentum seems to have stalled. If UKIP had another defector lined up, the end of the Conservative Party conference would have been the moment to reveal it. That no announcement came spoke volumes. Any party members thinking of leaving are now probably waiting to see how the forthcoming by-elections pan out before deciding.</p>
<p>Even if more defections are on the cards, the three main parties have all been in existence for more than 100 years (if you include the Liberal element of the Lib Dems). This does not guarantee that they will survive indefinitely, but it does mean that they all have experience of recovery from serious set-backs. Even a large-scale exodus to UKIP would not necessarily be terminal for any of them.</p>
<p>After all, the Liberal Party was reduced to just five MPs at its lowest point in the 1950s before recovering to a peak of 63 MPs. The Labour Party had 288 seats in 1929 but just 52 by 1931 yet went on to win the 1945 election by a landslide. And even after the SDP split, the Labour Party recovered and in 1997 won an even bigger landslide than 1945. The Conservative Party lost half its seats in 1997, but became the largest single party again in 2010.</p>
<p>A loss in Clacton or Rochester and Strood wouldn’t necessarily be the end of the world either. In October 1930 the Conservatives, under Stanley Baldwin – arguably the most comparable Conservative leader to David Cameron – rallied after losing a by-election at Paddington South to a right-wing candidate from the Empire Free Trade Crusade who was backed by newspaper magnate Lord Beaverbrook. In the event this was to be the Empire Crusade’s only by-election victory. </p>
<p>Whether UKIP’s crusade will get the party any further remains to be seen, but on current evidence, the likelihood of an SDP-scale split seems remote.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/32547/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Alun Wyburn-Powell is member of the Liberal Democrat Party, but not an office-holder or elected representative.</span></em></p>The Conservative party is shortly to face a high-profile by-election this week in the wake of the defection of Clacton MP, Douglas Carswell. Senior figures in the party are understood to be deeply concerned…Alun Wyburn-Powell, Visiting Lecturer, Department of Journalism, City, University of LondonLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/321282014-09-25T11:38:42Z2014-09-25T11:38:42ZThe six questions to ask about UKIP this conference season<p>UKIP is assembling at <a href="http://www.ukip.org/ukip_to_hold_it_s_biggest_ever_annual_conference_at_doncaster_racecourse">Doncaster Racecourse</a> for its annual conference, riding high on some major victories over the past few months and preparing for a by-election that could well secure the party its first seat in the Commons and, next year, for a general election that will see the leader himself, Nigel Farage, contesting a parliamentary seat.</p>
<p>Farage is in a buoyant mood and the two-day meeting is being billed as UKIP’s biggest ever. With the 2015 election just around the corner it’s worth looking at the big questions that will define this growing party and the campaigns of its rivals in the coming months.</p>
<h2>Will Douglas Carswell’s defection pay off?</h2>
<p>The biggest UKIP story of the year was without doubt the defection of Conservative MP Douglas Carswell to Farage’s team. It was a <a href="https://theconversation.com/cameron-must-go-on-offensive-to-tackle-carswell-and-ukip-31035">big blow for David Cameron</a> and has prompted a by-election in his Clacton constituency, to be held on 9 October.</p>
<p>Carswell was always a maverick MP. He is not only a Eurosceptic but an arch-libertarian, taking many contrary positions to the Conservatives. Cameron may not actually be that upset to see him go but he didn’t want to have to fight a by-election this close to the general election.</p>
<p>It is a rare and politically brave position to resign your seat, swap parties and re-contest. But Carswell has gambled that he has a strong personal vote in Clacton. That, combined with strong UKIP polling will carry him into the Commons.</p>
<h2>Will more Tories defect?</h2>
<p>Much of the chatter after the Carswell defection concerned which Tories would follow him. It has not gone unnoticed that Stuart Wheeler, the former Tory donor and now UKIP treasurer, has been wining and dining potential defectors for a while now.</p>
<p>Few of these have as good a chance as Carswell at getting straight back into the Commons as a UKIP MP, though. There are two varieties of Tory Eurosceptic – the hard, who want a referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU, and the soft, who want to see EU reform. Both groups reason that Cameron still gives them the best chance of realising either scenario so Carswell may be the only one to defect, unless Tory polling takes a nosedive nearer the election. </p>
<p>Disgruntled Tories are currently focusing attention on David Cameron and William Hague, pushing for Scottish MPs to be barred from voting on English issues in the House of Commons and are likely to be distracted by the “English question” for a while to come.</p>
<h2>Will Farage win South Thanet?</h2>
<p>This is not as straightforward as it may seem. Farage does have roots in the constituency in which he is campaigning and UKIP won seven of the eight local council seats in May 2013, as well as topping the poll in the European Parliament elections in 2014. Farage is a stronger household name than ever and is certain to garner a substantial personal vote.</p>
<p>But South Thanet will be a three-way contest. Labour won the seat from Jonathan Aitken in 1997 and held onto it until 2010. That’s when Laura Sandys, a rare pro-European Tory, won the seat with a 7,600 majority. She has since decided not to contest it again in 2015.</p>
<p>Farage is not guaranteed a free run. A <a href="http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Thanet-South-July-2014-Full-tables.pdf">July poll</a> of marginal seats put UKIP ahead in the constituency but only by a couple of percentage points from Labour. What’s more, the Conservatives have selected a former Ukipper to run for them. That complicates matters because it makes anti-Farage votes less likely to flow to the Tories. UKIP’s strength is currently in second-order elections. The party has had success in local and European elections for which turnout is low but it it is relatively untested in bigger battles.</p>
<p>Despite all this, the smart money will be on Farage making it over the line in South Thanet.</p>
<h2>Will Labour benefit?</h2>
<p>The answer to this one is both yes and no. The Carswell defection is bad for Cameron; it is a distraction and it knocks a hole in his policy of delivering EU reform and then a referendum. Labour is still holding out before committing to an EU referendum. The opposition should benefit from division in the Tory ranks but <a href="http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/08/ukip-s-rise-isn-t-all-good-news-labour">research</a> has shown that UKIP is also taking votes from Labour. </p>
<p>UKIP has performed well in the low-income, working-class, marginal constituencies in which Labour should be making ground but isn’t. Labour needs to take the UKIP threat seriously and can’t sit back and watch the Tories squirm.</p>
<h2>Can UKIP go mainstream?</h2>
<p>UKIP is best known for its anti-elite, anti-immigration, and anti-Europe message. While UKIP has always held policies in this libertarian vein, such as <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27654958">flat tax</a>, it has never had someone with the communication abilities of Carswell to get them across to the public.</p>
<p>Carswell has been one of the most prolific thinkers in British politics over the past few years. He has focused in particular on how to reform politics by devolving power to local constituencies through <a href="https://theconversation.com/referendums-are-everywhere-in-england-you-just-havent-heard-about-them-31708">referendums on important issues</a> and on recalling votes for citizens who are unhappy with the performance of MPs and other elected officials. His Euroscepticism stems from his belief that Britain needs to stand alone in the world and develop itself into a liberal trading hub like Singapore.</p>
<p>This means liberalisation, deregulation and a total focus on export over consumption for national economic policy. Whatever the viability of these policies, or the public’s willingness to embrace them, they bring much greater diversity to UKIPs policies.</p>
<h2>Will UKIP hold the balance of power?</h2>
<p>This is the nightmare scenario for each of the main parties. With the expected implosion of the Liberal Democrat vote in May 2015, UKIP could pick up as many as nine seats from the Conservatives and potentially (though admittedly implausibly) two or three seats from Labour. This could potentially give Farage the role of kingmaker in a hung parliament. Farage is of course talking this scenario up – and the anomalous position of Scottish MPs voting at Westminster helps him.</p>
<p>When the campaign proper gets going, UKIP’s anti-EU message may get drowned out by more prosaic concerns, such as the economy, and it may not make such huge gains after all. Farage holding the Commons to ransom may therefore be the least likely scenario – but in politics, prediction is a dangerous business.</p>
<p>These are all questions that will be answered fairly soon but one thing is certain now – UKIP will play a central role in both the campaign and the result of the coming election. Farage is stronger than ever and is revelling in the trouble he can cause in the fall-out from the Scottish referendum. As long as Cameron, Clegg and Miliband keep giving him material, he’ll continue to use it.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/32128/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Mark Bennister does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>UKIP is assembling at Doncaster Racecourse for its annual conference, riding high on some major victories over the past few months and preparing for a by-election that could well secure the party its first…Mark Bennister, Senior Lecturer, Canterbury Christ Church UniversityLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/310352014-08-29T11:27:26Z2014-08-29T11:27:26ZCameron must go on offensive to tackle Carswell and UKIP<p>David Cameron has not had a good summer. He has received widespread criticism for <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/aug/22/holidays-david-cameron-prime-minister-chillaxing-global-crises">not responding quickly enough to the humanitarian crisis in Iraq</a>, the resignation of two of his ministers (<a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-28657623">Sayeeda Warsi</a> and <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-28737781">Mark Simmonds</a>) and been caught in the middle of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/house-of-commons-clerk-spat-is-more-important-than-you-think-30737">dispute</a> surrounding the appointment of the next House of Commons clerk.</p>
<p>Now, with just 250 days until the general election, he is having to deal with the fall-out from the news that radical backbencher Douglas Carswell has defected to UKIP, triggering a time consuming by-election that no one in the party would have wished for. </p>
<p>The response of the Conservative Party leadership over the next few weeks will be crucial. First, Cameron will need to be more in touch with his backbenchers. Carswell’s defection has clearly been on the cards for some time, with UKIP leader Nigel Farage telling BBC Radio 4 that he <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p025lltb">first discussed the move with him 18 months ago</a>. Conservative campaign headquarters clearly had no inkling of imminent movement though, having posted <a href="http://order-order.com/2014/08/28/not-so-fastrack/">invitations to a drinks reception with Carswell</a> shortly before the news broke. If Carswell had gone 18 months ago it would have been difficult for Cameron but not a disaster. But with so little time until the general election the party cannot afford any more surprise announcements like this. </p>
<p>Second, Cameron will need to give more substance to his plans for renegotiating Britain’s relationship with Europe. Carswell accused the Prime Minister of <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ukip/11060963/Douglas-Carswells-shock-defection-to-Ukip-triggers-by-election-battle.html">failing to be “serious” in his proposals</a> for European reform and of having “made up his mind” that Britain should remain in the EU.</p>
<iframe border="0" frameborder="0" height="250" width="100%" src="https://twitframe.com/show?url=https://twitter.com/DouglasCarswell/status/443787388348006400"></iframe>
<p>Publicly the party has been on the defensive. Cameron called Carswell’s decision <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/11062041/David-Cameron-Douglas-Carswells-defection-to-Ukip-is-deeply-regrettable.html">“counterproductive”</a> and attention is being drawn to an old <a href="https://twitter.com/DouglasCarswell/status/443787388348006400">tweet</a> posted by Carswell about his support for Cameron’s stance on Europe. </p>
<p>But the party will need to go on the offensive soon and that will be much harder. Fighting a by-election against Carswell in a constituency where he is already very popular is going to be tough. Carswell <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/b14.stm">received 53% of the vote in 2010</a>) and reports suggest he has his <a href="http://blog.paddypower.com/2014/08/28/guido-fawkes-westminster-bombshell-as-ukip-swoops-for-douglas-carswell-put-your-money-on-him/">own database of supporters</a>, separate from that maintained by the Conservative party. He is already going into this by-election much better resourced than the average UKIP candidate. </p>
<p>And so, most obviously, Cameron needs to make sure that the Conservatives hold Clacton convincingly this autumn. It is unusual for the incumbent to be standing in a by-election and the Conservatives’ recent record in by-elections is mixed. Although they held Newark earlier this year, they were swept away in the Corby by-election of 2012 following the resignation of Louise Mensch.</p>
<p>Adding a parliamentary win like this to UKIP’s success in the European elections this year could signal a momentum that Cameron would find very difficult to stem.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/31035/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Louise Thompson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>David Cameron has not had a good summer. He has received widespread criticism for not responding quickly enough to the humanitarian crisis in Iraq, the resignation of two of his ministers (Sayeeda Warsi…Louise Thompson, Lecturer in British Politics, University of SurreyLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/310602014-08-29T09:54:56Z2014-08-29T09:54:56ZDouglas Carswell by-election is a rare and honourable event<p>The least surprising part of Douglas Carswell’s defection to UKIP was surely his decision to resign his Clacton seat and seek re-election in a by-election. Quite apart from any satisfaction at the anxiety it will bring to the Conservative leadership of which he has come so completely to despair, any other course of action, though more conventional, would have been unthinkable for this politician of both unusual views and integrity. </p>
<p>Just check out his <a href="http://www.talkcarswell.com">website</a> for the past couple of months, starting with the <a href="http://www.talkcarswell.com/home/recall--it-should-be-local-voters-not-mps-who/2791">announcement</a> of the government’s <a href="https://theconversation.com/watered-down-recall-bill-proves-mps-just-dont-get-it-27732">version of a recall bill</a> to enable constituents to get rid of an MP in whom they have lost confidence:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>The SW1 gang, terrified of the implications of letting the people back into politics, will ensure that the trigger for any recall mechanism remains safely in their hands. Local people will only be allowed to vote to confirm what political insiders have decided.</p>
<p>Done properly, recall must be triggered by local voters, not a committee of Westminster grandees. And it must also involve an actual recall ballot – should your local MP be recalled, yes or no?</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Or his <a href="http://www.talkcarswell.com/home/a-rotten-way-to-run-a-country/2795">comparison</a> of modern-day politics to the era when Winston Churchill was the one making headlines for crossing the floor:</p>
<blockquote>
<p>In 2014 many more people – thankfully – have the right to vote than they did in, say, 1914. But that does not necessarily mean we have become more democratic. Many more have the right to vote, but the ability of those with votes to hold those with power to account has steadily diminished.</p>
<p>A hundred years ago, it was not simply MPs who decided which MPs got promoted. If your local MP was appointed to the government, they had to resign their seat, come back to the constituency and get your permission in a by-election for them to join the government.</p>
</blockquote>
<p>Carswell was an unlikely candidate for ministerial office, but he would have found it unconscionably inconsistent not to apply those principles of democratic accountability in his own case.</p>
<h2>UKIP’s first elected MP</h2>
<p>Carswell won’t be the first to trigger a by-election in this way, but it has become unusual – and it wasn’t the path chosen by his UKIP predecessor. </p>
<p>Yes, contrary to some media outlets were initially suggesting, if Carswell were to win his by-election, he would not be “the first UKIP MP to take a seat in Westminster”. It could, as President Clinton might suggest, depend on what the meaning of the word “take” is, but the subsequent media corrections suggested they’d already forgotten the hapless <a href="http://conservativehome.blogs.com/torydiary/2008/04/bob-spink-becom.html">Bob Spink</a>’s claim to footnote status in the UK’s great parliamentary history.</p>
<p>Spink was elected three times as Conservative MP for Castle Point in Essex, but in 2008 he either resigned the Conservative whip (his version) or had it withdrawn (the party’s version), and defected to UKIP, becoming the party’s first and so far only MP. So he thought anyway, although he had to clarify his position as an Independent a few months later, on the grounds that UKIP had no whip. Carswell, then, if he wins his by-election, would become the first <em>elected</em> UKIP MP.</p>
<h2>An unconvincing model</h2>
<p>Carswell’s action can be seen as a challenge to the Trustee model of the elected representative, which says MPs are elected purely as individuals on their personal merits, rather than as delegates of political parties. </p>
<p>Many would argue that this model has become a convenient but utterly unconvincing fiction, and in 2011 one of the new intake of Conservatives put it to a modest parliamentary test. <a href="http://chrisskidmore.com/">Chris Skidmore</a>, MP for Kingswood and a Tudor historian, introduced a <a href="http://services.parliament.uk/bills/2010-12/membersofparliamentchangeofpoliticalpartyaffiliation.html">Members of Parliament (Change of Political Party Affiliation) Bill</a>, under the backbenchers’ ten minute rule bill procedure. This bill would oblige any member who voluntarily decides to change party to resign and fight a by-election. </p>
<p>He got his ten minutes, a diverting debate, and thereby his bill’s first reading, and then – probably unsurprisingly to him and certainly to Carswell – absolutely nothing. In effect, parliament simply updated its endorsement of the view that MPs’ mandates are purely personal and they have every right to change parties at will without feeling any obligation to consult their electors.</p>
<h2>Lessons from history</h2>
<p>In the modern era, then, Carswell’s decision to trigger a by-election should go down as a rare and honourable exception. One of the last times we saw something similar was the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eGpt2ywiTzY">1982 Mitcham and Morden by-election</a> following Labour MP Bruce Douglas-Mann’s resignation to join the <a href="https://theconversation.com/lessons-from-history-for-douglas-carswell-31041">recently formed Social Democratic Party</a>.</p>
<p>He too was in a minority, all 27 of his fellow Labour defectors deciding they’d sit tight and hold on to their seats – which, at the height of the Falklands War and the upsurge of support for the Conservative government, proved beyond Douglas-Mann, though he did defeat his Labour opponent. </p>
<p>There will be some, I suspect, and not just UKIP sympathisers, who at least secretly hope that Carswell’s a bit luckier this time round.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/31060/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Chris Game does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</span></em></p>The least surprising part of Douglas Carswell’s defection to UKIP was surely his decision to resign his Clacton seat and seek re-election in a by-election. Quite apart from any satisfaction at the anxiety…Chris Game, Honorary Senior Lecturer, Institute of Local Government Studies, University of BirminghamLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/310412014-08-29T05:01:50Z2014-08-29T05:01:50ZLessons from history for Douglas Carswell<p><a href="http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-08-28/tory-lawmaker-carswell-defects-to-ukip-in-blow-to-cameron">“Let’s see if we can make history”</a>, said Conservative MP Douglas Carswell after he announced that he was defecting to UKIP and resigning his seat in Clacton to fight a by-election for his new party.</p>
<p>But if we’re talking history, we might as well look at what the past tells us about the fate of insurgent parties in British politics.</p>
<p>Most people have forgotten about the socialist <a href="http://www.sussex.ac.uk/library/speccoll/collection_introductions/commonwealth.html">Common Wealth Party</a>, but it gained considerable traction during the special political conditions of World War II.</p>
<p>Three MPs were elected in by-elections during the war but only one – Ernest Millington – survived the 1945 general election. The party soon split and dissolved, although it lasted as a pressure group until 1993.</p>
<p>We could also look at the more recent example of the Social Democratic Party, formed in 1981 by the so-called <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/march/26/newsid_2531000/2531151.stm">Gang of Four</a>, made up of defectors from the Labour Party. The best known was Roy Jenkins, who held the offices of Chancellor and Home Secretary (twice) in Labour governments, as well as serving as president of the European Commission. Almost all its initial MPs were Labour defectors and only one Conservative MP joined them.</p>
<p>The year the SDP was founded, Shirley Williams won a by-election in the constituency of Crosby near Liverpool. This had previously been one of the safest Conservative seats in the country. She secured 49% of the vote, but lost the seat in 1983. The Social Democrats entered an “alliance” with the Liberals in the 1983 general election, but their advance in votes was not matched by a significant number of seats in the House of Commons. They won places for just 23 MPs.</p>
<p>In 1988 they merged with the Liberals to form the Liberal Democrats, although three Social Democrat MPs, including Gang of Four member David Owen, refused to join the new party. Owen eventually wound up the SDP in 1990. Charles Kennedy, who had been elected as a Social Democrat, eventually became leader of the Liberal Democrats.</p>
<p>The Social Democrats were a centrist party and launched an appeal to voters on that basis. At the time, the Conservative Party was perceived to have moved to the right under Margaret Thatcher and the Labour Party was seen as having moved to the left under the leadership of Michael Foot. This opened up an unoccupied space in the middle of the political spectrum.</p>
<p>UKIP is more difficult to characterise in conventional left-right terms, although many analysts would see it as being on the populist right. It certainly appeals to those who have been left behind in economic and cultural terms by the effects of globalisation and its <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/05/left-behind-voters-only-ukip-understands">supporters</a> tend to be more male, more elderly and less well educated than the population as a whole.</p>
<h2>Old lessons for new friends</h2>
<p>These uprisings ultimately failed to produce meaningful gains in the House of Commons but they had long-lasting repercussions nonetheless. UKIP is the most successful insurgent party since the Social Democrats in terms of polling and has had more success than the Social Democrats ever had in European elections. They are, of course, very different political parties, but the odds remain stacked against insurgents.</p>
<p>The story of the Social Democrats – and indeed the Common Wealth Party – shows how difficult it is for a break away party to make it big in Britain but it also suggests that these small parties can shape politics in other ways.</p>
<p>The greatest effect of the Social Democrats was on the Labour Party, even if many Labour supporters wouldn’t like to admit it. Its electoral success encouraged Neil Kinnock to begin the process of reforming the party and moving it in a more moderate direction. This process was continued by John Smith and then accelerated by Tony Blair with New Labour. Many criticisms have been made of New Labour, not least of its foreign policy, but it certainly offered a successful electoral formula.</p>
<p>UKIP may have some advantages over the Social Democrats. It is a genuinely popular insurgent movement that is bottom up rather than top down. That sometimes creates difficulties with maverick individuals making contentious statements but it does mean that there is an enthusiastic activist base. What’s more, the two main parties are less dominant than they were in the 1980s and voters are increasingly willing to vote for an alternative, not just in by-elections, local elections or European Parliament elections.</p>
<p>Farage, Carswell and friends may find that their real impact will be on the Conservatives. There are many Conservative MPs and activists who blame David Cameron for not winning the 2010 election outright and having to form a coalition government. Many of them also think he is too moderate, particularly over Europe.</p>
<p>That doesn’t mean that they will split in the way they did over the <a href="http://www.historytoday.com/stephen-bates/two-sides-same-party">Corn Laws</a> in the 19th century which saw them out of office for nearly 30 years but this defection will certainly make them sit up and pay attention.</p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/31041/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Wyn Grant has received funding from the Economic and Social Research Council.</span></em></p>“Let’s see if we can make history”, said Conservative MP Douglas Carswell after he announced that he was defecting to UKIP and resigning his seat in Clacton to fight a by-election for his new party. But…Wyn Grant, Professor of politics, University of WarwickLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.tag:theconversation.com,2011:article/310312014-08-28T16:01:56Z2014-08-28T16:01:56ZAll eyes on Tory eurosceptics as defection to UKIP forces fight that could shape next election<p>Douglas Carswell, the Conservative MP for Clacton, has dropped a bomb by announcing his defection to UKIP, and will fight a by-election to give his constituents the chance to pass judgement on the decision.</p>
<p>Carswell is a long-time eurosceptic and a vocal member of the <a href="http://www.betteroffout.net/">Better Off Out</a> campaign. He has a reputation for being something of a maverick who is quite happy to defy the Tory whips in parliament. There are a number of other eurosceptic Conservative MPs and councillors who must now be considering their positions.</p>
<p>It has been a good year electorally for UKIP, since it is the first party other than Labour and the Conservatives to come first in a national election – in this case for the European Parliament – since the Liberal landslide of 1906. The party also did very well in the local elections of 2013. Both successes are a measure of how UKIP has influenced the political climate. In a <a href="http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/">YouGov poll</a> for the Sunday Times published on August 22, UKIP received 14% in voting intentions, almost twice as much as the Liberal Democrats.</p>
<p>And now Nigel Farage’s team has scored another coup. Carswell’s defection is not just a little local difficulty, it has far wider implications for the Conservatives’ campaign in the run-up to the general election next year.</p>
<p>To counter the UKIP threat, Conservative strategists have deployed the “wasted vote” argument. They make the point that UKIP cannot deliver an in-out referendum in 2017. In an interview for the BBC, Carswell said that this is <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-28967959">disingenuous</a> since he believes Conservative leaders really want to stay in the EU while at the same time giving the impression they want to leave, in order to keep their supporters onside.</p>
<p>This is in fact a re-run of <a href="http://www.progressonline.org.uk/2013/06/11/a-second-harold-wilson/">Harold Wilson’s strategy</a> in the referendum on membership of the European Economic Community in 1975. Labour was badly split on the issue at that time so Wilson promised a referendum in order to control the dissenters, but then announced at the last minute that the minor concessions he had won from the European Commission justified a vote to stay in. Carswell, along with a number of other Conservative supporters, clearly think this is what Cameron is up to and they don’t like it. </p>
<p>Clacton is a safe <a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/b14.stm">Conservative seat</a>, with the party taking a 53% share of the 2010 election vote, compared with Labour’s 25%. UKIP did not fight the seat in that election but the party soundly trounced the Tories in the European Parliamentary elections this year. In <a href="http://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/council/elections-voting/european-elections-22-may-2014">Tendring</a>, the European Parliamentary Constituency that includes Clacton, UKIP won 19,398 votes compared with the Tories 9,981.</p>
<p>One of the reasons for UKIP’s success is the connection Nigel Farage has made between immigration and membership of the EU. Britain cannot exclude economic migrants from the EU and now the British economy is recovering while the eurozone economy continues to flatline, this type of immigration is <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-28964323">increasing</a>.</p>
<p>Research we have been conducting at the University of Essex shows that UKIP is winning votes from people who are discontented by the performance of all three major parties in managing the economy.</p>
<p>Voters know the economy is recovering but they don’t feel the benefits themselves and so do not reward the government for a good performance. At the same time they are reluctant to support the Labour alternative on the grounds that the party was in charge when the economy crashed in 2008. As a result, some are opting for UKIP. With immigration and the economy high on the national agenda, the party has shrewdly moved on from being one-trick pony which only appears to talk about the EU. </p>
<p>It will be a hard fought by-election campaign but UKIP can win it, and if this happens it will completely derail the anti-UKIP strategy being pursued by the Conservatives. That in turn makes it less likely they can win the general election next year.</p>
<p><em>This article is co-published with <a href="http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/clacton-could-produce-the-first-ukip-member-of-parliament/">LSE Blogs</a>.</em></p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/31031/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" />
<p class="fine-print"><em><span>Paul Whiteley receives funding from the ESRC.</span></em></p>Douglas Carswell, the Conservative MP for Clacton, has dropped a bomb by announcing his defection to UKIP, and will fight a by-election to give his constituents the chance to pass judgement on the decision…Paul Whiteley, Professor, Department of Government, University of EssexLicensed as Creative Commons – attribution, no derivatives.