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need to address and explore variety, balance and disparity ie: - number of options in the portfolio - proportional representation of options in the portfolio - degree to which options are different from each other Towards a Complete, Integrated Diversity Concept need to avoid sensitivities to arbitrary assumptions eg: - when to start counting? when one option and when two? - assumption that difference reduces to single parameter - assumption uncertainty can be treated probabilistically - assumption that past predicts future - assumption that all data is normally distributed need symmetry on divergent contexts, views and dimensions eg: - include wider economic, environmental and social criteria - be flexible towards different values and priorities

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For any given perspective on the appraisal of a given transition context option differences can be seen as dimensions in disparity space Constructing a General Diversity Heuristic

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number of dimensions represent different aspects of option disparity Constructing a General Diversity Heuristic For any given perspective on the appraisal of a given transition context option differences can be seen as dimensions in a disparity space

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number of dimensions represent different aspects of option disparity positions of options in space determined by any salient disparity attributes eg: functions (Staffan / Marko) features (Eva / Daniel) capacities (Uli) attributes (Fred) In principle, this framework can address any perspective on salient features of institutions, technologies, functions, networks or effects Constructing a General Diversity Heuristic For any given perspective on the appraisal of a given transition context option differences can be seen as dimensions in a disparity space

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Distances between pairs of options represent their mutual disparity (d a,b ) a b c From Disparity to Diversity For any given perspective on the appraisal of a given transition context option differences can be seen as dimensions in a disparity space

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Distances between pairs of options represent their mutual disparity (d a,b ) Disparity of a portfolio of options is given as a function of these pairwise distances a b c d a,b d b,c and… Variety and balance can be captured by weighting this by the product of the proportional importance in the system of each option in the pair (p i.p j ) =.p i.p j ij (i j) d ij From Disparity to Diversity For any given perspective on the appraisal of a given transition context option differences can be seen as dimensions in disparity space

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1Scaling of variety: where variety = 1, = 0 Formal Conditions for a General Diversity Heuristic 2Monotonicity of variety: for equal B / D; rises monotonically with V 3Monotonicity of balance: for given V / D; rises monotonically with B 4Monotonicity of disparity: for given V / B; rises monotonically with D 5Scaling of disparity: where aggregate difference = 0; = 0 6Open Accommodation: is symmetric to any perspective on disparity 8Parsimony of Form: has few components and simple structure 9Explicit Aggregation: allows explicit weightings on V, B and D 7Robust to Partitioning: is insensitive to aggregation on taxonomy 10Ready Articulation: can be incorporated in portfolio performance

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Can be shown robustly to fulfill first eight quality criteria: = ij d ij.p i.p j Some Properties of the New Diversity Heuristic

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space of technological possibilities time Social studies, philosophy, history and economics paint common picture Diversity and Lock-in

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space of technological possibilities time Social studies, philosophy, history and economics paint common picture Diversity and Lock-in

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Technologies can present different equally-viable paths space of technological possibilities time Social studies, philosophy, history and economics paint common picture Diversity and Lock-in

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space of technological possibilities time Technologies can present different equally-viable paths but, in practice, reduced by momentum, autonomy, entrapment and lock-in Social studies, philosophy, history and economics paint common picture Diversity and Lock-in

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space of technological possibilities time Technologies can present different equally-viable paths diversity mitigates lock-in and so enhances deliberate reflection and learning Social studies, philosophy, history and economics paint common picture for society: raises key questions over power, agency and choice Diversity and Lock-in

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Sustainability maintain system functions over long term society, economy, environment stability against endogenous disruptions resilience against exogenous shocks robustness under external shifts The Properties of Sustainability durability under internal change

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Diversity in this Workshop Title key theme: managing variation Jochenimportant to maintain and enhance variety Staffanimperative to pursue in parallel varied technology clusters Fredneed to focus on variety creation and selection Kornelianeed to address three types of variety Haralddiversity relates to institutional incoherence and adaptability Raimunddiversity as a means to selection of superior products But many questions over meanings and contexts?