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Tuesday, December 9

Written By: Scott HetskoUpcoming snow fall appears on track to begin late overnight and early Wednesday for the region. Initially a wet snow will transition to a drier snow Wednesday night and Thursday. Low pressure will strengthen early Wednesday which will throw snow back into Western New York. Light to at times moderate snow will fall much of Wednesday. It will be quite breezy as the pressure gradient tightens Wednesday afternoon and evening. Totals for most will range between 6-10" with some higher amounts possible in Northern Monroe county as well as the higher elevations South of the thruway. Still expecting milder weather to return later in the weekend to melt this round of snow before Christmas.

The amounts on these high-res models are obviously highly suspect, but they should suppress any doubts people might be having. By the way, BGM lowered their forecast totals today because the warm advection was more robust than originally indicated, which is something we will not need to worry about. All of the current forecasts still appear to be on track to verify.

"All of the current forecasts still appear to be on track to verify." AKA: Scott's forecast is NOT off. I posted those links to suppress the doubts that were rising markedly in the last thread, they amount to pure eye candy but still demonstrate that we are currently in little to no danger of seeing a "bust."

I've never seen the term "glomming" used to describe what the precipitation is doing, but that's the term I see being used to describe the snowfall in Albany right now. Very heavy precipitation finally managed to cool the surface enough for about an hour of giant sloppy flakes. They had previously been all rain.

Before someone comes and hijacks my name again, I will spew a few thoughts. I definitely don't say bust on this one, but I think mini-bust. I think we were all hyped up to the tune of 10-15" and now I believe it'll be more like 5-7". Still measurable snow though, hence mini-bust. Do hope I'm wrong, but I just don't see this thing blowing up over WNY tomorrow. Fingers crossed and enjoy watching tomorrow everyone.

As un-special as our totals will be, the duration given in this part of the Advisory text isn't something you see too often around here:

"ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN AN INCH OVERNIGHT...3 TO 5 INCHES WEDNESDAY...3 TO 5 INCHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT...1 TO 3 INCHES THURSDAY...AND AN INCH OR LESS THURSDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO 60 HOUR STORM TOTALS OF 8 TO 14 INCHES."

I've also noticed that the forecasted totals have been inching upward since mid afternoon...

If in your eyes, you see it as a mini-bust, bust, or the big one, we all come here for insight on snow and winter storms. It's time to watch the snow outside and the the professionals do the best they can. Kudos News 8, you look to be right on!

I am interested to see if the 00z model trends follows earlier trends, increased amounts into western NY. It appears that the advisory areas will receive more snowfall than in most of the warning areas. I would not be surprised if some of the highest storm totals are on 104 corridor in Orleans, Monroe, and Wayne counties.

For the record the above was not me. I don't talk like that. Im excited about our upcoming snow. I said I wouldn't post again but I had to honor my name. CCCC: how easy is it to create an account like you did so we can put an end to this post hijacking?

CCCC, I know you will probably say let's get through storm first, but other than the seven days forecast looking warmer, what can we anticipate temperature wise etc in the coming weeks? Is consistent cold actually coming to stay?

The computer model predicting time and accumulations that RC showed this morning give us 12-14 inches by 5:00pm tomorrow in the Rochester area. Think this going to over achieve and we will get lake enhancement. RC said a strong north wind. I believe that puts the metro in a good spot.

The system is not "falling apart" and will fill back in during today. From the latest KBUF AFD:

"BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE MENTIONED ABOVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE ALL THE WAY AROUND THE TOP OF THE CLOSED LOW INTO WESTERN NEW YORK. OVERNIGHT WILL BE PRIME TIME LOCATIONS FROM ROCHESTER WEST TO BUFFALO AND SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN TIER TO GET BETTER SNOWFALL RATES / AND THUS THE BULK OF THEIR ACCUMULATIONS."

Please go back and look at my posts from yesterday 12:12 and 12:57 under the previous post. It was in regards to the storm being stronger and a great deal of moisture catching up from the Atlantic. Also the winds will be strong.

So is RC predicting 14+ inches of now by Thursday morning? While others are forecasting 6-10 or 8-12 -- it makes you wonder who is correct. If RC is correct, plan to get up clear and shoveling to get to work. Now just waiting for the prediction of "Blizzard in the Flower City" in ____ hours or day Mark it down!!!

Here we go...everyone is getting hyped up again...Yes, the radar looks impressive but I think you are all forgetting this is a WEAK SYSTEM! It is not going to last to wrap into WNY and give us a foot of snow. It is going to break apart this afternoon/evening and become spotty snow showers.....NBD sorry folks! Next time maybe!

Welcome back Charles. I think we are going to find that the mets did a great job with a tough forecast on this one. It may over-perform slightly being a little conservative on a challenging forecast such as this one is the way to do it. Time to enjoy the snow.

2 or 3 inches so far where I am, rough estimate. The heavier deformation snows continue to shift westward and still appear on schedule to arrive by sunset. Lake enhancement has clearly been the rule today and may have been under-forecasted all along.

Yes the Trolls are annoying. All the mets said this morning the heavier snow will be later this afternoon and after midnight. So we will just have to wait and see. Like I said the computer snow prediction model that RC showed this morning had the city at almost 14 inches by the time the storm is done. Not sure if it would be that far off when we are in the storm basically. Maybe CCCC can shed some light on what he feels since we are now casting.

I know it is the NAM but their latest run has us in the 16-18 inch range if I am reading it correctly. Plus on radar there looks like a huge wall of precipitation to our NE coming after the current one?

NWS Discussion: "Still holding onto the winter storm warnings as accumulations centered across the Genesee Valley will average 6-12 inches. Across far western New York and southeast and east of Lake Ontario just 3-6 inches expected so have continued with the advisory.

The forecast for what to expect behind this leading band of snow is very difficult. Observations have not verified well against previous model solutions so confidence is low in hanging on to steady snowfall behind the above mentioned snow band. Radars across southern New England are showing some blossoming of snow toward eastern New York but feel this plume of moisture and its driving shortwave trough will follow a trajectory around the upper closed low and shift across northern New York into southern Ontario. For now have just keep a chance pop in play for tonight behind the westward tracking snow band. Will continue to monitor and may update based on future observation. "

Snowfall rates look like they will slacken and scatter for a few hours before becoming steadier and heavier again after sunset. Shortwave energy is still rounding the upper low and that should give us another round of steady snowfall during the nighttime hours.

I have 7 inches so far in Webster, by the time all is said and done I should easily exceed a foot.

Nice, only about 4-5 in Clarkson so far but it has picked up in intensity within the past hour. It was funny watching an undercover cop in a rear wheel drive dodge charger trying to drive down 104. Fishtailing everywhere! Wrong car dude

Syracuse got smacked and they are expecting another big glob coming on the radar. CCCC what do you think I believe it will snow harder over night and snow until at least noon tomorrow. this storm retrograded back and blew up and grabbing a lot of Atlantic moisture.

Looks like 6-8 inches in Farmington by looking at hot tub cover on deck. Not much wind behind house so I trust that spot. Looks like ton of moisture left to come. Even if it stopped now we got the low end of the forecast already so the rest is bonus time! Enjoy it before it melts this weekend.

Yes after watching news 8 at 4 it looked like there was way more to come than we have had so far. KW says 4-8 overnight. I am thinking it will be on the high end of that, maybe more. If the blog behaves maybe more( if it were only that easy). :-)

We have about 8 inches here in Irondequoit and it is still coming down very steadily. I think there is a good chance that the lakeshore communities will see a total between 14 and 18 inches by the time we are all said and done tomorrow afternoon.

It's the real Chris now in Penfield. I drove from Wayne Co. to Albany today. Schools started closing around noon in central and eastern Wayne Co. Roads were in rough shape, with easily 4 or 5" of greasy, wet, slippery snow. Once on the Thruway, it was pretty smooth sailing except for one stretch between SYR and Utica. Snowfall totals across NYS vary greatly - there are places in the Mohawk Valley with an 1" or less...Albany has 6-8", and Syracuse got it pretty good too (5-7"). Round two on the radar already showing up here, though it is quiet right now.

AT 900 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED AN AREA OFHEAVY SNOW ACROSS OSWEGO COUNTY MOVING WEST. MODERATE SNOW ISALREADY FALLING ACROSS THE REGION...BUT SNOW WILL INTENSIFY AS THISAREA MOVES IN WITH A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW AREAS SOUTH OF LAKEONTARIO FROM ROCHESTER TO WEEDSPORT. THIS WILL LOWER VISIBILITY TO AQUARTER MILE AT TIMES...WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH AN HOUR.