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what if we can't make a trade?

I was thinking about all the trade ideas thrown out by posters and a thought hit me: trades are difficult to make for a GM. You have to trade an excess and fill a need all the while taking the other teams excesses/needs into account. ( not to mention salary needs ). It got me to thinking: what if WK can't pull off a nice trade this off season? what if the Reds basically stand pat?

If we resign our decent free agents ( Aurillia, Weathers, Schowenweis ) and sign one halfway decent free agent 2B or OF ( I am think of cheap but decent guys like Kenny Lofton or Jose Valentin ) we would have:

This team has 2 good starters, a decent but unspectacular pen, a decent but unspectacular offense, and a decent defense.

I really can't see this team being more than average.
Arroyo & Harang had very good years and this years team went 80-82.
2/5 of the SP being solid and 3/5 being suspect is not a good recipe for a playoff team.

This team would really need Bailey to arrive early in 2007 and make an impact right away and it would also help if Votto's bat arrived early { pushing Hatteberg to the bench }

Re: what if we can't make a trade?

I don't think we have to worry about not making a trade.

I just have this horrible feeling in the pit of my stomach that WK is going to trade AD.... I don't think there's but a handful of people who think the Reds should keep him (I'm one of that handful), not the fans, not the media, and probably not WK.

That will be one sad day for me (and, I think, the team too, in more ways than one).

"Enjoy this Reds fans, you are watching a legend grow up before your very eyes" ... DoogMinAmo on Adam Dunn

Re: what if we can't make a trade?

You're right, if we stand pat we aren't going to get magically better. If we come back with those players we'll be .500 or worse.

Our hopes are: 1) Wayne makes some magical trades and pickups, or 2) Wayne builds with drafts and prospect trades. Option #2 is a long term solution and IMHO the more realistic path to success. Given our lack of depth at any spot other than catcher, we really don't have a surplus that we can trade to solve our problem areas in the short term.

Re: what if we can't make a trade?

I wouldn't make a huge deal. I would try to add pieces where I can and maybe sign a #3 type pitcher. Trade the catchers, Hat, Freel, Lohse, Majewski and Cormier. Maybe some mid level minor leaguers like Pelland, Dumatrait or Moran. Trade the others only if its an overwhelming offer.

With Dunn, EdE, Votto and Bruce that is the makings of a good middle of the order. With Phillips at 2B and some combo of Deno, Strait, Dickerson or Stubbs in CF the team on the field is promising. Need to get a SS and a catcher.

Harang, Arroyo, Bailey and a signing make a solid rotation with Lizard, Claussen, Cueto and/or Wood rounding things out. Lots of relief candidates if Coffey or Bray could eventually close.

They probably will be middle of the pack at best in 2007 because we'll be using stopgaps while these pieces get ready, but I think they can rise in 2008 or 2009 when some of the bad contracts go off the books and money is spent in strategic areas. I wouldn't rock the foundation now and delay the improvement. Not enough ready talent on hand to be trading a lot of it away unless it is a clear win in talent coming back. We have already seen what trading foundation pieces to fill holes gets you. The projected middle of the order and projected rotation look solid and those are the hardest pieces to get.

Re: what if we can't make a trade?

I think wayne is going to make some major moves this offseason. He already made alot of moves during the season, no reason to think that wont continue. I think he will see what he can get for dunn and if someone makes a good deal that he will take it. Pitching and Defense is the new direction of the reds.

Re: what if we can't make a trade?

Originally Posted by mth123

I wouldn't make a huge deal. I would try to add pieces where I can and maybe sign a #3 type pitcher. Trade the catchers, Hat, Freel, Lohse, Majewski and Cormier. Maybe some mid level minor leaguers like Pelland, Dumatrait or Moran. Trade the others only if its an overwhelming offer.

With Dunn, EdE, Votto and Bruce that is the makings of a good middle of the order. With Phillips at 2B and some combo of Deno, Strait, Dickerson or Stubbs in CF the team on the field is promising. Need to get a SS and a catcher.

Harang, Arroyo, Bailey and a signing make a solid rotation with Lizard, Claussen, Cueto and/or Wood rounding things out. Lots of relief candidates if Coffey or Bray could eventually close.

They probably will be middle of the pack at best in 2007 because we'll be using stopgaps while these pieces get ready, but I think they can rise in 2008 or 2009 when some of the bad contracts go off the books and money is spent in strategic areas. I wouldn't rock the foundation now and delay the improvement. Not enough ready talent on hand to be trading a lot of it away unless it is a clear win in talent coming back. We have already seen what trading foundation pieces to fill holes gets you. The projected middle of the order and projected rotation look solid and those are the hardest pieces to get.

Why do so many folks seem to think that the rest of the division and league can rebuild on the fly so much faster than the Reds? Is it that a side efect of parity is often the mediocrity we also saw all around this season? BUt iof everybody is mediocre, in terms of getting to the post season does that really matter?

Within their division the Reds had clearly winning records against both the teams that finished above them. Both of those teams also have major issues looking to next year; and ironically the Cards may actually have more trouble cutting the cord and moving forward because of the success they have experienced in the post season.

Re: what if we can't make a trade?

At the very least, one of the catchers will go. We will have some free agent signing or another and I think the rotation will be addressed as well. Keep in mind too that both the pitching and batting coach positions need to be filled and that could (not the word "could") help in two areas that struggled during the season. But I think the "least" isn't all that is going to happen. If we could get this darn World Series over with and get to letting teams make their moves, we could hurry up and get to next season!

Re: what if we can't make a trade?

Wayne K. already made a minor league deal for the infielder Gil to kick off the offseason. We aren't talking about Dan O'Brien here.

I said before I think Dunn will be on this team come 2007. Most teams will go through free agency first to sign the hitters they need before making a deal for Dunn.

With that said, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Reds sign a free agent starter (Jason Schimdt?), closer (Eric Gagne?) and sign either Alex Gonzalez or Adam Kennedy to fill either the second base or shortstop spot.

reply to mth123

1. I generally agree with your assessment. I think the future looks brighter than the past but it will be 2008/2009 not 2007.

2. " I would try to add pieces where I can and maybe sign a #3 type pitcher. "

What I don't want WK to do is sign some pitcher to a long bad contract ( Milton? Chan Ho Park? Jared Wright? Pavano? etc etc ) . I am not sure we can sign a #3 SP when so many other richer teams need pitching.

3. " Trade the catchers, Hat, Freel, Lohse, Majewski and Cormier. "

IMO:
Trade LaRue.
Hatteberg plays 1B ( or platoons at 1B ) until Votto is ready.
Freel could be traded since he could wear out quick and might not be a good player come say 2009.
Don't trade Majik now & lets see what he can do if healthy.
Cormier is tradable especially if we resign Schowenweis.

4. "With Dunn, EdE, Votto and Bruce that is the makings of a good middle of the order. With Phillips at 2B and some combo of Deno, Strait, Dickerson or Stubbs in CF the team on the field is promising. Need to get a SS and a catcher.

Harang, Arroyo, Bailey and a signing make a solid rotation with Lizard, Claussen, Cueto and/or Wood rounding things out. Lots of relief candidates if Coffey or Bray could eventually close."

Sounds like a nice team circa 2009. sigh

5. They probably will be middle of the pack at best in 2007 because we'll be using stopgaps while these pieces get ready, but I think they can rise in 2008or 2009 when some of the bad contracts go off the books and money is spent in strategic areas. I wouldn't rock the foundation now and delay the improvement. Not enough ready talent on hand to be trading a lot of it away unless it is a clear win in talent coming back. We have already seen what trading foundation pieces to fill holes gets you. The projected middle of the order and projected rotation look solid and those are the hardest pieces to get. "

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