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Monday, August 7, 2017

08/08/2017: Ensuring sustainable fish production in Europe under climate change

by
Maurine Toussaint, Courtney Hough, Elisabeth Ytteborg, ClimeFish

The ClimeFish project will produce data that will prepare fisheries and aquaculture
sectors in Europe for near future climate scenarios, using adaptation plans,
risk assessments and visualisation of opportunities presented in a decision
support tool

ClimeFish is a four-year European project funded by the Horizon 2020 research
and innovation programme that aims to create a decision support framework (DSF)
to ensure sustainable fish production in Europe under climate change.

The project focuses on three different fish supply sectors: marine aquaculture,
marine fisheries and lakes and ponds, which are divided into 16 case studies
that involve more than 25 species across the continent. The main objective of
the ClimeFish project is to ensure that future growth in seafood production
occurs in areas and for species with a potential for sustainable growth.

A European project for a global matter
Fish and shellfish from both wild and farmed sectors represent a valuable
source of proteins, minerals and omega 3 fatty acids. So far, most of the
consumed food has come from wild catch.

However, according to FAO, aquacultured species are expected to become our main
nutritional source in the future. Declining wild fish stocks and increasing
human population put increased pressure to this development, urging growth and
higher production yields.

From the other side, the undeniable climate change threatens the sustainable
development of both wild and farmed species at the global level through
unfavourable growth conditions. Forecasting the effects and providing
structured responses to ensure future growth, sustainability and management,
are core activities in ClimeFish.

ClimeFish forecasting is based on specific climate scenarios from the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) called the RCP’s
(Representative Concentration Pathways). The RCPs are possible temperature
scenarios depending on how rapidly global greenhouse gas emissions come down in
coming years.

ClimeFish focus on the so-called RCP4.5 and 8.5 that represent the most likely
and the worst-case scenario, three and four degrees global temperature
increase. The most optimistic scenario, RCP 2.6, was originally the third
scenario to be included in the project, but this has already been surpassed.

The effects of these scenarios upon fish and shellfish in all the 16 cases will
be simulated using different models developed in the project. ClimeFish will
then use the simulated results to make tentative projections of fish production
and distribution based on the relationship between water temperature and
population growth.

These production scenarios will be further used for socio-economic analysis by
all relevant stakeholders, who will also identify potential risks and
opportunities for the sector. ClimeFish is currently in the beginning of the
second project year and all of the cases have started modelling the growth of
the relevant species.

The project objectives
When it comes to aquaculture and fisheries, adaptations to climate change are
not just about the effects of storms or temperature increase. It also requires
concrete measures and adaptation strategies from every European country,
political decisions, management plans and engagement from the industrial
stakeholders.

ClimeFish is getting ready to co-create a Decision Support Framework (DSF) that
will help to ensure sustainable fish production in Europe by taking the effects
of forecast climate changes into full consideration.

Professor Michaela Aschan, coordinator of the ClimeFish project explains, “It’s
an interface where stakeholders may do planning for the future - looking at
different options, different scenarios of temperature changes and see how it
will influence your production in your area no matter if it’s fresh water,
aquaculture or fisheries. We consider the details of each production system.”

The recommendations and guidelines on drawing up climate-enabled management
plans using the ClimeFish Decision Support Framework will be formulated as a
low-level voluntary European standard and will be available through the
European Committee for Standardisation after the project ends to ensure the
project results are used.

Scientists and stakeholders are working closely together to ensure that the
knowledge generated from ClimeFish is scientifically acceptable, has strategic
and policy relevance and include social robustness.

In collaboration with its international network of stakeholders, “the ClimeFish
stakeholder hub”, ClimeFish plans to develop early-warning methodologies (such
as a traffic light system) for the different sectors, identify strategies that
mitigate the risks as well as actions plans that take benefit from any
opportunities resulting from climate change.Read the full article, HERE.

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