NewEnergyNews

Gleanings from the web and the world, condensed for convenience, illustrated for enlightenment, arranged for impact...

While the OFFICE of President remains in highest regard at NewEnergyNews, this administration's position on climate change makes it impossible to regard THIS president with respect. Below is the NewEnergyNews theme song until 2020.

Ocean Life And Offshore Wind, Better Together

New England fishermen give personal accounts of how offshore wind, marine life, and the local Block Island economy fit together. “Already, in an empty piece of ocean, there’s more fish than there were two years ago.” From American Wind Energy Association via YouTube

Australia’s 50,000 Home Virtual Power Plant

Tesla is partnering with the state of South Australia on this groundbreaking project that will link solar-plus-battery storage systems in 50,000 homes to the power grid to strengthen and stabilize power delivery and lower homeowner electricity costs. From TomoNews USvia YouTube

Friday, February 16, 2018

Get Ready ‘Cause Here It Comes

“New research shows that countries around the world are falling short of greenhouse gas goals in the Paris climate deal, and the consequences will likely be unprecedented extreme weather…[Unprecedented climate events: Historical changes, aspirational targets, and national commitments] found that the likelihood of extreme heat, dryness and precipitation will increase across as much of 90% of North America, Europe and East Asia if countries do not accelerate their efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions…[Its authors say the world is] not prepared for today’s climate, let alone for another degree of global warming…[The study shows the difference between the Paris Agreement’s target to keep the global average temperature increase to below 3.6°Fahrenheit by 2100 and the] ideal target of 2.7° Fahrenheit…would lead to dramatic increases in the likelihood of record warm or wet days…” click here for more

World Power Grids Are Ready For New Energy

“…[Major power systems around the world] are able to cope quite well with increasing shares of intermittent renewables, if the right measures are taken…[I]ncreased generation of these renewables does not make the grid less reliable or compromise security of supply, [according to Power-Industry Transition, Here and Now, a new study from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA).] Critics of renewable energy have often warned that there are strict limits to the amount of intermittent power that the grid can handle…Yet so far, despite strong growth of solar and wind, no limits appear to be on the horizon. The expansion of renewables does present challenges and require measures, but with the right measures, systems are able to cope quite well…The IEEFA researchers looked at nine countries and regions which last year had shares of renewables ranging from 14.3% to 52.8%, while the global average was 5.2%...[They were Denmark (52.8%)…South Australia (48.4%)…Uruguay (32.2%)…Germany (26%)…Ireland (24.6%)…Spain (23.2%)…Texas (18%)…California (15%)…[and] the state of Tamil Nadu, India (14.3%)…The study outlines various methods for countries to integrate a higher share of wind and solar power into their systems. There is no general rule as to which of the options to follow; countries should adopt and adjust these measures according to their specific needs. The report did not look into the cost of these measures…” click here for more

World Wind Numbers Reach New Highs

Global installed wind capacity at the end of 2017 was 539,291 MW and 52,552 MW were added during the year, according to preliminary World Wind Energy Association (WWEA) data. The 2017 total is more than the 51,402 MW added in 2016 and the third biggest growth ever. The year on year growth of 10.8 % was, however, the lowest growth in this century. Wind’s total installed capacity is equal to over 5% of world electricity demand. Denmark set a new world record by getting 43% of its electricity from wind in 2017. China remained the biggest market, building 19,000 MW. The U.S. added 6,800 MW and reached a cumulative 89,000 MW. Germany added 6,100 MW to reach 56,000 MW overall. click here for more

Global Data Giants Drive New Energy Growth

The data centers of hyperscale companies like Google, Facebook, Apple, and Microsoft use 2% to 3% of developed countries’ electricity and are transitioning to New Energy to cut operational expenses, take advantage of incentives, and respond to criticisms about the impacts their excessive electricity consumption may have on local grids, according to a new market report. Apple reached 100% New Energy five years ago and Google reached it in 2017. Facebook, Microsoft, and Amazon data centers remain around 50%, though Microsoft data centers have been carbon neutral since 2014. Amazon and Facebook have 100% New Energy goals. The two most popular New Energy resources are solar and wind power. All the companies also have ongoing energy efficiency and energy storage efforts. click here for more

Thursday, February 15, 2018

Conception In A Time Of Climate Change

“…It is not an easy time for people to feel hopeful, with the effects of global warming no longer theoretical, projections becoming more dire and governmental action lagging…[There is little data on the role climate change plays in people’s childbearing decisions but interviews show young women have] a sense of being saddled with painful ethical questions that previous generations did not have to confront. Some worry about the quality of life children born today will have as shorelines flood, wildfires rage and extreme weather becomes more common. Others are acutely aware that having a child is one of the costliest actions they can take environmentally. The birthrate in the United States, which has been falling for a decade, reached a new low in 2016. Economic insecurity has been a major factor, but even as the economy recovers, the decline in births continues. And the discussions about the role of climate change are only intensifying…[Most of those interviewed] lamented having to factor climate change into their decisions at all…” click here for more

Introducing The EV Policy Fights

“…[The 50 States of Electric Vehicles, with a special 2017 Review, previews a new quarterly that will provide] insights on state regulatory and legislative discussions and actions on electric vehicles and charging infrastructure…[The report finds that 43 states and the District of Columbia took some type of action related to electric vehicles during 2017…34 states considered or adopted changes to the regulation of electric vehicles, including registration fees, electricity resale rules, and siting of charging infrastructure…20 states plus D.C. took action to study or investigate some aspect of electric vehicles…19 states and D.C. considered or approved new financial incentive programs, or changes to existing incentive programs for electric vehicles or electric vehicle supply equipment…Utilities or legislatures in 17 states plus D.C. took action related to the deployment of electric vehicles and charging infrastructure…17 states considered policy changes to encourage electric vehicle market development…[and] Utilities or state legislatures in 13 states plus D.C. considered new utility rate tariffs for electric vehicle charging, or changes to existing tariffs…” click here for more

The Oklahoma Wind War

“…[In Oklahoma, where officials are contending with a massive budget deficit, long-simmering tensions between the oil and gas industry and renewables advocates] have broken out into a war over wind power that has already eliminated the state's renewable energy tax credit program and threatens to further undermine financial supports for the burgeoning wind industry. In the latest development, a plan backed by oil and gas interests to impose new taxes on wind energy production failed in the Oklahoma House…[It] was a rare victory for wind power in a year-long battle that has pitted it against Oklahoma's political establishment and the state's powerful oil and gas industry…[Wind advocates] expect the Legislature to try again to impose new taxes on wind power and move to cut incentives already awarded to projects in years past…[The driving force behind the campaign against wind is billionaire] Harold Hamm, chief executive of one of the nation's biggest independent oil companies and an energy advisor to President Donald Trump…His company's political action committee has contributed nearly $180,000 to Oklahoma state legislators from both sides of the aisle since 2015…” click here for more

New Things To Do With Solar

“…[Solar energy] offers ten-thousand times the energy required by people worldwide…[Six intriguing solar innovations may help put it into service. Solar windows can help] building owners achieve partial independence from the power grid…[The solar-powered airplane Solar Impulse 2 used 17,000 solar panels to make] a historic trip around the globe…[Researchers are] embedding flexible solar panels into fabric and] solar-powered sunglasses, jewelry, watches, and backpacks…[Prototype solar power harvesting trees are charging] mobile phones, laptops, LED street lights, and electric vehicles…[A] solar desalination system uses a combination of membrane distillation technology and sunlight-harvesting nanophotonic cells to convert salty or brackish water into fresh drinking water…[and the BioSolar Cells project is working on] a sustainable production of energy, biomass, and food using photosynthesis…” click here for more

Editor’s note: This work is proceeding slowly but seriously as the urgency of integrating distributed energy resources to deal with California’s peak demand grows.

An unprecedented collaboration between California’s grid operator, its investor-owned utilities, and third-party distributed resource providers could streamline electric system communications in preparation for higher distributed energy resource penetration. The groundbreaking work maps out plans to interconnect the bulk transmission system to distributed energy resources (DERs) through utility-operated distribution systems, achieving a new level of communication between the transmission system operator, the distribution system operator, and the DER provider.

Technology advances and customer demand are transforming the electric power, according to a newly-released report from the California Independent System Operator (CAISO), Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E), Southern California Edison (SCE) and San Diego Gas & Electric (SDG&E). DERs are beginning to reach significant penetration levels on the emerging “decentralized system,” and are on their way to becoming key resources, the paper noted. A working group led by think tank More Than Smart (MTS), which included the IOUs, CAISO, and DER providers, released the paper at the end of the first year of a multi-year effort. The group’s objective is to resolve operational challenges preventing transmission operators and distribution operators from working with private sector developers to meet consumer demand for DER… click here for more

Editor’s note: As stakeholders predicted, the commission’s acceptance of this plan has allowed debate on New Energy to expand.

Last year, Hawaii utility regulators accepted the third version of their utility’s long-term plan to reach 100% renewable energy. But the PUC stopped short of outright approval, warning that Hawaiian Electric’s (HECO) roadmap fails to fully justify its proposed expenditures. The commission ruling applauded the utility’s short-term ambition to acquire renewables in its Power Supply Improvement Plan (PSIP). But it repeatedly warned HECO that the plan requires improvements and further analysis of proposed investments. Many planned near-term power acquisitions “are supported by sound analysis and are consistent with state energy policy,” the Hawaii Public Utilities Commission (PUC) reported in the final ruling in docket 2014-0183. But some are "not sufficiently justified.” And the commission warned it remained concerned with the affordability of the Companies' plans.

Why would the PUC accept what it sees as a questionable plan? The answer lies in the coming phase-out of federal tax incentives for renewable energy. To procure renewables most cost-effectively, HECO “must move quickly to enable customers to benefit from available tax credits,” regulators wrote. Both the federal investment tax credit, which supports solar development, and the federal production tax credit, which supports wind, expire in the early 2020s. Colton Ching, a HECO senior vice president, applauded the ruling because it allows the utility allows the utility to move ahead on its renewables objectives “and take advantage of the tax credits.” There is a “definite difference between ‘accept’ and ‘approve’ but we never expected approval in this docket,” he said. Earthjustice Attorney Isaac Moriwake, who represented Sierra Club in the PSIP docket, agreed the plan’s “big positive” is that it allows HECO to move ahead. But the ruling also represents regulatory resignation… click here for more

Grid modernization is a broad term, lacking a universally accepted definition. In this report, the authors use the term grid modernization broadly to refer to actions making the electricity system more resilient, responsive, and interactive. Specifically, in this report grid modernization includes legislative and regulatory actions addressing: (1) smart grid and advanced metering infrastructure, (2) utility business model reform, (3) regulatory reform, (4) utility rate reform, (5) energy storage, (6) microgrids, and (7) demand response.

PURPOSE

The purpose of this report is to provide state lawmakers and regulators, electric utilities, the advanced energy industry, and other energy stakeholders with timely, accurate, and unbiased updates about how states are choosing to study, adopt, implement, amend, or discontinue policies associated with grid modernization. This report catalogues proposed and enacted legislative, regulatory, and rate design changes affecting grid modernization during the most recent quarter. The 50 States of Grid Modernization report series provides regular quarterly updates and annual summaries of grid modernization policy developments, keeping stakeholders informed and up to date.

The authors identified relevant policy changes and deployment proposals through state utility commission docket searches, legislative bill searches, popular press, and direct communications with industry stakeholders and regulators. Questions Addressed This report addresses several questions about the changing U.S. electric grid:

• How are states adjusting traditional utility planning processes to better allow for consideration of advanced grid technologies?

• What changes are being made to state regulations and wholesale market rules to allow market access for distributed energy resources?

• How are states and utilities reforming the traditional utility business model and rate designs?

• What policy actions are states taking to grow markets for energy storage and other advanced grid technologies?

• Where and how are states and utilities proposing deployment of advanced grid technologies, energy storage, microgrids, and demand response programs?

Actions Included

This report focuses on cataloguing and describing important proposed and adopted policy changes related to grid modernization and distributed energy resources, excluding policies specifically intended to support only solar technologies. While some areas of overlap exist, actions related to distributed solar policy and rate design are tracked separately in the 50 States of Solar report series, and are generally not included in this report.

In general, this report considers an “action” to be a relevant (1) legislative bill that has been introduced or (2) a regulatory docket, utility rate case, or rulemaking proceeding. Only statewide actions and those related to investor-owned utilities are included in this report. Specifically, actions tracked in this issue include:

Changes to utility planning processes, including integrated resource planning, distribution system planning, and evaluation of non-wires alternatives, as well as changes to state and wholesale market regulations enabling market access.

Utility Business Model and Rate Reform

Proposed or adopted changes to utility regulation and rate design, including performancebased ratemaking, decoupling, time-varying rates, and residential demand charges. Time-varying rate and residential demand charge proposals are only documented if they are being implemented statewide, the default option for all residential customers of an investorowned utility, or a notable pilot program. Actions related to inclining or declining block rates are not included in this report.

This report excludes utility proposals for grid investments that do not include any specific grid modernization component, as outlined above, as well as projects that have already received legislative or regulatory approval. Actions related exclusively to pumped hydroelectric storage or electric vehicles are not covered by this report. While actions taken by municipal utilities and electric cooperatives are not comprehensively tracked in this report, particularly noteworthy or high-impact actions will be covered. The report also excludes changes to policies and rate design for distributed generation customers and changes related to electric vehicles; these changes are covered in the 50 States of Solar and 50 States of Electric Vehicles quarterly reports, respectively.

In 2017, 39 states plus DC took a total of 288 policy and deployment actions related to grid modernization, utility business model and rate reform, energy storage, microgrids, and demand response. Table 1 provides a summary of state and utility actions on these topics. Of the 288 actions catalogued, the most common were related to deployment (63), followed by policies (61), and planning and market access (45).

Ten states taking the greatest number of actions related to grid modernization, or some of the most impactful actions, are noted below.

New York

New York’s Reforming the Energy Vision proceeding, which continued throughout 2017, addresses many different aspects of grid modernization, including distribution system planning, non-wires alternatives, and storage compensation rules. The Governor signed into law a bill creating an energy storage target, as well as a property tax exemption for electric energy storage.

California

California regulators addressed distribution system planning, the state’s energy storage target, a grid modernization investment proposal from Southern California Edison, and several other topics during 2017. Modifications were made to the state’s Self-Generation Incentive Program, and stakeholders worked with the California Independent System Operator to address rules for demand response and storage participation in the wholesale market.

Rhode Island

The state of Rhode Island initiated its Power Sector Transformation Initiative in 2017, an expansive grid modernization proceeding addressing several topics, including data access, distribution system planning, utility business models, and transportation electrification. National Grid filed its Power Sector Transformation investment plan later in 2017. The state also addressed evaluation of non-wires alternatives and solar-plus-storage compensation.

Hawaii

Regulators considered a grid modernization proposal from Hawaii’s three investor-owned utilities in 2017, as demand response and energy storage proposals. The Public Utilities Commission also addressed compensation for solar-plus-storage systems, and a study of alternative utility regulatory models is underway. Several bills were under consideration during the year, including legislation to create an energy storage tax credit and facilitate microgrid development.

Maryland

The Maryland Public Service Commission continued with its broad grid modernization proceeding in 2017, addressing several topics, including data access, electric vehicles, energy storage, interconnection, and rate design. The state legislature also initiated an energy storage study and adopted the nation’s first state tax credit for energy storage systems.

Massachusetts

Massachusetts regulators established an energy storage target, addressed compensation rules for solar-plus-storage, and considered grid modernization investment proposals from all three investor-owned utilities in 2017. Several bills were introduced during the year that would create new incentives for energy storage, grid modernization planning processes, and rate design guidelines.

Michigan

Pursuant to legislation enacted in late 2016, the Michigan Public Service Commission undertook a number of grid modernization activities in 2017, including studies addressing demand response, alternative utility business models, and solar-plus-storage compensation. The Commission also addressed integrated resource planning rules, and two utilities – Consumers Energy and DTE Electric – filed draft grid modernization investment proposals.

Nevada

In 2017, the Nevada state legislature enacted legislation creating an energy storage incentive program and initiating an energy storage study to consider whether or not the state should adopt an energy storage procurement target. Voters and regulators are considering restructuring of the state’s electric industry in advance of a second ballot vote, and integrated resource planning and time-varying electricity rates were also addressed during the year.

Vermont

The Vermont Public Utility Commission opened a broad investigatory proceeding in 2017, addressing grid modernization and utility business models. The state’s Department of Public Service also published an energy storage study and policy recommendations, as directed by Act 53. Green Mountain Power filed applications for approval of three energy storage projects during the year and announced a new program to deploy battery storage systems at customer homes.

Arizona

Arizona regulators issued a decision requiring Arizona Public Service to consider energy storage options in integrated resource planning and as alternatives to transmission and distribution investments. Regulators also considered special rate tariffs for energy storage owners, residential time-varying electricity rates, interconnection rules for energy storage systems, and adoption of a clean peak standard.

Honorable Mention: North Carolina

The North Carolina state legislature initiated an energy storage study in 2017, while the Utilities Commission considered interconnection rules for emerging technologies and data access rules. Duke Energy announced plans for a $13 billion grid investment package, which includes AMI and self-optimization investments, and received approval to develop a microgrid in western North Carolina.

Throughout 2017, states took a wide variety of approaches to grid modernization. Some states focused heavily on studies, while others took greater action on deployment and pilot projects, took several different types of action. Furthermore, some states placed a greater emphasis on technology, while others keyed in on policy or rate design. In line with a trend toward comprehensive approaches, many states considered technology, policy, rate design and utility business model reforms simultaneously.

Gathering Information through Studies and Pilots

A major trend present throughout 2017 was that of states and utilities working to gather information on various aspects of grid modernization through studies, investigations, and pilot projects. Studies and investigations were undertaken on both broad and narrow topics during the year, while most pilot projects related to time-varying rates or deployment of energy storage and microgrids.

Energy Storage Taking Focus

As 2017 progressed, state and utility action related to energy storage climbed. At least 31 states took actions related to energy storage during the year. A wide variety of actions were taken, including conducting studies, amending resource planning and interconnection rules, considering incentives for storage systems, adopting procurement targets, and deploying storage facilities.

Comprehensive and Coordinated Approaches to Grid Modernization

Several states – including Illinois, Ohio, Rhode Island, and Vermont – initiated broad proceedings in 2017, addressing many different elements of grid modernization in a coordinated fashion. Similar proceedings also continued in Maryland, New Hampshire, and New York. A common element of these comprehensive approaches is stakeholder engagement, with working groups and workshops frequently utilized.

Evaluating Storage as Part of Integrated Resource Planning

A growing trend among states is consideration of the way in which energy storage is evaluated within the integrated resource planning process. Regulators in New Mexico and Washington amended statewide integrated resource planning rules to require the evaluation of storage alternatives, while regulators adopted similar rules for individual utilities in Arizona and Louisiana.

Rate Reforms Center on Time-Varying Rates

In 2017, time-varying electricity rates was by far the most frequently considered type of utility rate reform. Policymakers and regulators in 11 states took statewide action related to timevarying rates, or considered utility proposals related to default or mandatory time-varying rates. Time-varying rates were also considered as part of tariffs designed specifically for battery storage owners.

Questions Emerge Over Utility and Third-Party Technology Ownership

In several states, questions related to technology ownership were considered. In Maine and Texas, utility requests to own microgrid (including a solar PV array and battery storage system) and battery storage assets, respectively, came into focus as regulators considered whether the utilities (both in restructured states) are permitted to own these assets. In Arkansas, the Public Service Commission is considering utility ownership versus third-party ownership of DERs as part of a generic proceeding on DERs and data access.

Grid Modernization Investment Costs Often a Point of Contention

In several proceedings considering utility grid modernization investment proposals, the issue of cost became a major point of contention among parties during 2017. In Hawaii, regulators directed the utilities to revise their original plan because of its high cost, while plans in California and North Carolina have also received criticism over cost and which specific investments should be prioritized.

The White House’s $1.5 trillion infrastructure building plan transfers $1.3 trillion of the cost to state, local, and private sources. Along with the administration’s discounted climate science and weakened climate change regulations, engineers and researchers say it leaves the new build plans obsolete and vulnerable to rapidly changing flood patterns and extremes of weather. prepare U.S. infrastructure for this century’s climate change-driven chaos. The White House has been unwilling to say whether climate realities were considered in the preparation of its infrastructure plan. click here for more

“…Jobs in Pennsylvania’s solar sector increased by 26 percent to nearly 4,000 people in 2017…It was the second consecutive year of employment growth after three years of declines, a sign that solar-friendly policies at the state level — and falling equipment prices encouraging more installations — are making their mark…The gains come as the national solar workforce declined by 4 percent, the first annual drop since the group began releasing job counts in 2010…[Larger installers and manufacturers are also threatened by new] tariffs on solar imports…[But solar] jobs went up in 29 states…[showing] that solar is taking hold across the country…[I]n 2017, the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection gathered input from solar advocates on policy changes that would help spur growth. Gov. Tom Wolf has said he wants to boost solar generation to at least 10 percent of in-state electricity sales by 2030…” click here for more

“…[A new 15-year power purchase agreement for wind power] will provide approximately 80 percent of the electricity load for five Nestlé facilities in southeastern Pennsylvania. The agreement is a major step forward for Nestlé's ambition to procure 100 percent of its electricity from renewable sources…EDP Renewables' Meadow Lake VI wind farm will generate and deliver 50 megawatts of electricity through the PJM Interconnection grid to manufacturing facilities and distribution centers operated by Nestlé Purina PetCare, Nestlé USA and Nestlé Waters North America in Allentown and Mechanicsburg, Pennsylvania. Because the wind farm and the recipient facilities are located on the same regional grid, the power purchase agreement provides traceability from the Pennsylvania facilities back to the wind farm. With the addition of the energy from the wind farm, 20 percent of the electricity Nestlé uses in the U.S. will come from renewable sources in 2019…This renewable energy project will help Nestlé cut energy costs, avoid the volatility of fossil fuel prices, and stay competitive…” click here for more

TODAY’S STUDY: California’s Nation-Leading Clean Cars Plan

In March of 2012, Gov. Jerry Brown set a goal of putting 1.5 million zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) on California’s roads by 2025. Today, California is well on its way toward reaching that goal. There have been bumps in the road, but technology and market trends in California and around the world are accelerating adoption of electric vehicles. And just as cell phones upended the telecommunications industry, electric and autonomous vehicle technologies, combined with new business models, promise to transform the transportation industry.

By October 2017, 337,483 ZEVs had been sold in California, and market growth is accelerating. ZEV sales increased 29.1 percent in California between October 2016 and October 2017, with ZEVs reaching 4.5 percent market share compared to 3.6 percent market share in 2016.

For the most common type of ZEV — the electric vehicle (EV) — the battery is the most expensive component by far, and battery costs are falling fast.1 From 2010 to 2016, battery costs fell from $1,000 to $209 per kilowatt-hour.2 This has allowed car companies to offer greater driving range and better performance at lower price points, while expanding the number and type of EV models they offer. Consumers are responding positively, not just in California but also around the world. Last year, in 2017, global passenger electric vehicle sales reached about 1 million,3 up from half a million in 2015.4

As the world moves toward electrified transportation, China has emerged as a market leader. Chinese manufacturers produced 43 percent of EVs worldwide in 2016, while the U.S. produced 17 percent.5 China is leading on the policy front, as well, joining India, France, the UK and the Netherlands in announcing intentions to ban sales of gasoline-powered cars.

As the rest of the world puts a priority on ZEVs, the U.S. government appears to be moving in the opposite direction, but California remains committed to accelerating the transition to ZEVs. A bill before the California legislature would ban sales of non-ZEV cars by 2040, and Gov. Brown has expressed interest in the idea of phasing out vehicles powered by internal combustion engines (ICEVs). As the sixth-largest economy in the world, California’s actions affect the global automobile market.

• ZEV market share in California was 4.5% in 2017, up from 3.6 % in 2016.7 This compares to 2017 ZEV market share of 1.1% in the U.S. and 1.8% in China.8

• When the state’s ZEV goal was enacted in 2012, California needed to average 35.5% annual growth in ZEV sales from 2013 to 2025 to meet its goal.9 But given the 29.1% increase in year-to-date 2017 sales, the annual growth rate required to meet the ZEV goal has decreased to 20% annually.

• Even if California’s sales growth were to slow by 5%, we project the state will easily meet its 1.5 million ZEV goal by 2025, if not before.10

Factors driving acceleration or deceleration of ZEV adoption include: price, performance, choice, convenience, and public policy. Current trends suggest that cost, range, selection and charging-time barriers to EV adoption are likely to continue to lessen, while increased competition will continue to lower costs and improve technology. Figure 1 illustrates that as EV sales rates have continued to increase in the state, range has steadily improved and battery cost has steeply declined, indicating a maturing market for EVs.

Total Cost of Ownership:

While upfront costs for electric vehicles are higher than their ICE equivalents, life cycle fuel and maintenance costs are decidedly lower. An analysis of 17 popular 2017 models found some ZEVs can be price competitive now, without government incentives.

Price:

The most expensive component of a ZEV is the battery. From 2010-2016, average battery cost per kilowatt-hour has dropped 74% from over $1,000 to just $273/Kwh (see Figure 2).

For the last 25 years, battery density has improved 5-7% annually, and in recent years, battery range has been improving considerably. In 2017, Tesla Model S had the farthest EPA-rated range for an all-electric vehicle, at 315 miles.

Choice:

150 different plug-in hybrids and pure electric vehicles are available worldwide, with that number set to rise to over 240 by 2021.13

• In the top California cities for EV penetration, auto dealers offer 25 to 30 different models.14

• More than half of the U.S population lives in a metropolitan area with seven or fewer available models.15

• China leads with over 75 EV models. It introduced 25 new models in 2016 and saw sales jump 70%.16

• Volkswagen, Daimler, Volvo and Nissan have announced plans to electrify their fleets over the next 10 years. GM plans to introduce 20 new ZEV models by 2023, while Ford promises 13.

• Infrastructure: From 2011 to 2016, the number of stations for charging electric vehicles increased by 1,138% in the U.S. However, in 2016 there was only one charging plug for about every six electric cars.17

• As of January 2018, California had a total of 16,549 public and nonresidential privatesector charging outlets, or about six times as many outlets as the next state, Texas. This only works out to 0.05 public charging outlets per ZEV, one of the lowest ratios in the country.18

• Fueling time: Tesla’s Superchargers can recharge EVs to 80% in 20 to 40 minutes. Others fully charge EVs in three to four hours, while slower charging points take around six to eight hours.

• Automakers are working to reduce charging times. For example, Honda is working on high-capacity batteries capable of 15-minute charging with a 240 km range for release in 2022 models.19

• Maintenance: ZEVs require significantly less time and money spent on maintenance because they have only about 20 moving parts -- about 1,980 fewer moving parts than traditional internal-combustion vehicles.

International, national and state policy may play a role in California’s ZEV market.

• National governments including China, the UK, France, the Netherlands and India have stated the intention to phase out the the internal combustion engine.

• CA and other leading states are moving to accelerate ZEV adoption. Eight states including CA signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) committed to bring 3.5 million ZEVs on the road by 2025.

∙ As of October 2017, California had fulfilled 22.5 % of the MoU goal, followed by Oregon with 10%. California appears to be the only state on track to fulfill its MoU goals.21

∙ In January 2018, Assembly Budget Committee Chairman Phil Ting introduced a bill that would ban gas-powered cars by 2040.22

• There are a number of public policies and funding mechanisms within California to promote the development of charging infrastructure, including settlement funds from Volkswagen’s diesel emissions case.

• The growth of ZEVs represents a significant potential drain on motor vehicle fuel taxes, which could drive a funding gap in state transportation revenue.

• Grid overload is another concern. The California Public Utilities Commission is studying the effects this may have on the grid, while SoCal Edison and the Los Angeles Air Force Base are conducting a pilot program that allows electric vehicles to act as battery storage and send power back to the grid.

“Broadcast TV news neglected many critical climate change stories in 2017…79 percent of the time that corporate broadcast networks spent covering climate change, or 205 out of 260 total minutes, featured actions or statements by the Trump administration. The networks gave vastly less coverage to the many ways that climate change affects people's lives through its impacts on things like extreme weather, public health, and national security…[94 of 95 minutes on Sunday show climate coverage revolved around the administration. 52% of TV news climate coverage was about the] decision to withdraw the U.S. from the Paris climate agreement…Despite 2017 being a record year for weather and climate disasters, the corporate broadcast networks rarely covered the link between climate change and extreme weather events…CBS and PBS led all broadcast networks in the number of segments they devoted to climate change in 2017…[but] were also the only two networks to feature guests who flatly denied that human activity causes climate change…” click here for more

“…With solar and wind power leading the charge, renewables are steadily finding their way into the energy infrastructure of a number of countries and companies. Some have already become 100 percent renewable, while others continue to carefully wean themselves from fossil fuel…There is, however, a sizable hurdle that early renewable energy adapters will inevitably encounter…A new study from Stanford University and the University of California, Berkeley (UCB) argues that [the variability of such a high penetration of renewables] could very well be overcome by a combination of solutions…[The study’s modeling of three scenarios in which nations struck a proper balance between energy output from renewables and predicted energy demand for 2050 showed] blackouts at low energy costs were avoided…[H]aving various energy storage options available was an important factor in that outcome…” click here for more

“…Swiss asset manager Capital Dynamics AG will build a one-gigawatt portfolio of solar farms in Nevada, one of the largest such projects in the U.S., with technology infrastructure company Switch Inc. as an ‘anchor tenant.’ The two companies expect the cost of power generated by Gigawatt 1 to be significantly lower than what the local utility charges…Gigawatt 1 is 16 times larger than a 60-megawatt solar farm in North Carolina that signed on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology as its anchor tenant in 2016…Switch’s Northern Nevada data center will require more than 10 times as much electricity as MIT’s project could instantaneously provide…Switch is paying millions [to incumbent utility NV Energy] in exit fees to join Gigawatt 1; Capital Dynamics says it offers financing options for those exit fees to companies looking to join the project…” click here for more

Plug-in Hybrids: The Cars that will ReCharge America by Sherry Boschert: "Smart companies plan ahead and try to be the first to adopt new technology that will give them a competitive advantage. That’s what Toyota and Honda did with hybrids, and now they’re sitting pretty. Whichever company is first to bring a good plug-in hybrid to market will not only change their fortune but change the world."

Oil On The Brain; Adventures from the Pump to the Pipeline by Lisa Margonelli: "Spills are one of the costs of oil consumption that don’t appear at the pump. [Oil consultant Dagmar Schmidt Erkin]’s data shows that 120 million gallons of oil were spilled in inland waters between 1985 and 2003. From that she calculates that between 1980 and 2003, pipelines spilled 27 gallons of oil for every billion “ton miles” of oil they transported, while barges and tankers spilled around 15 gallons and trucks spilled 37 gallons. (A ton of oil is 294 gallons. If you ship a ton of oil for one mile you have one ton mile.) Right now the United States ships about 900 billion ton miles of oil and oil products per year."

NOTEWORTHY IN THE MEDIA:
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Review of OIL IN THEIR BLOOD, The American Decades by Mark S. Friedman

OIL IN THEIR BLOOD, The American Decades, the second volume of Herman K. Trabish’s retelling of oil’s history in fiction, picks up where the first book in the series, OIL IN THEIR BLOOD, The Story of Our Addiction, left off. The new book is an engrossing, informative and entertaining tale of the Roaring 20s, World War II and the Cold War. You don’t have to know anything about the first historical fiction’s adventures set between the Civil War, when oil became a major commodity, and World War I, when it became a vital commodity, to enjoy this new chronicle of the U.S. emergence as a world superpower and a world oil power.

As the new book opens, Lefash, a minor character in the first book, witnesses the role Big Oil played in designing the post-Great War world at the Paris Peace Conference of 1919. Unjustly implicated in a murder perpetrated by Big Oil agents, LeFash takes the name Livingstone and flees to the U.S. to clear himself. Livingstone’s quest leads him through Babe Ruth’s New York City and Al Capone’s Chicago into oil boom Oklahoma. Stymied by oil and circumstance, Livingstone marries, has a son and eventually, surprisingly, resolves his grievances with the murderer and with oil.

In the new novel’s second episode the oil-and-auto-industry dynasty from the first book re-emerges in the charismatic person of Victoria Wade Bridger, “the woman everybody loved.” Victoria meets Saudi dynasty founder Ibn Saud, spies for the State Department in the Vichy embassy in Washington, D.C., and – for profound and moving personal reasons – accepts a mission into the heart of Nazi-occupied Eastern Europe. Underlying all Victoria’s travels is the struggle between the allies and axis for control of the crucial oil resources that drove World War II.

As the Cold War begins, the novel’s third episode recounts the historic 1951 moment when Britain’s MI-6 handed off its operations in Iran to the CIA, marking the end to Britain’s dark manipulations and the beginning of the same work by the CIA. But in Trabish’s telling, the covert overthrow of Mossadeq in favor of the ill-fated Shah becomes a compelling romance and a melodramatic homage to the iconic “Casablanca” of Bogart and Bergman.

Monty Livingstone, veteran of an oil field youth, European WWII combat and a star-crossed post-war Berlin affair with a Russian female soldier, comes to 1951 Iran working for a U.S. oil company. He re-encounters his lost Russian love, now a Soviet agent helping prop up Mossadeq and extend Mother Russia’s Iranian oil ambitions. The reunited lovers are caught in a web of political, religious and Cold War forces until oil and power merge to restore the Shah to his future fate. The romance ends satisfyingly, America and the Soviet Union are the only forces left on the world stage and ambiguity is resolved with the answer so many of Trabish’s characters ultimately turn to: Oil.

Commenting on a recent National Petroleum Council report calling for government subsidies of the fossil fuels industries, a distinguished scholar said, “It appears that the whole report buys these dubious arguments that the consumer of energy is somehow stupid about energy…” Trabish’s great and important accomplishment is that you cannot read his emotionally engaging and informative tall tales and remain that stupid energy consumer. With our world rushing headlong toward Peak Oil and epic climate change, the OIL IN THEIR BLOOD series is a timely service as well as a consummate literary performance.

Review of OIL IN THEIR BLOOD, The Story of Our Addiction by Mark S. Friedman

"...ours is a culture of energy illiterates." (Paul Roberts, THE END OF OIL)

OIL IN THEIR BLOOD, a superb new historical fiction by Herman K. Trabish, addresses our energy illiteracy by putting the development of our addiction into a story about real people, giving readers a chance to think about how our addiction happened. Trabish's style is fine, straightforward storytelling and he tells his stories through his characters.

The book is the answer an oil family's matriarch gives to an interviewer who asks her to pass judgment on the industry. Like history itself, it is easier to tell stories about the oil industry than to judge it. She and Trabish let readers come to their own conclusions.

She begins by telling the story of her parents in post-Civil War western Pennsylvania, when oil became big business. This part of the story is like a John Ford western and its characters are classic American melodramatic heroes, heroines and villains.

In Part II, the matriarch tells the tragic story of the second generation and reveals how she came to be part of the tales. We see oil become an international commodity, traded on Wall Street and sought from London to Baku to Mesopotamia to Borneo. A baseball subplot compares the growth of the oil business to the growth of baseball, a fascinating reflection of our current president's personal career.

There is an unforgettable image near the center of the story: International oil entrepreneurs talk on a Baku street. This is Trabish at his best, portraying good men doing bad and bad men doing good, all laying plans for wealth and power in the muddy, oily alley of a tiny ancient town in the middle of everywhere. Because Part I was about triumphant American heroes, the tragedy here is entirely unexpected, despite Trabish's repeated allusions to other stories (Casey At The Bat, Hamlet) that do not end well.

In the final section, World War I looms. Baseball takes a back seat to early auto racing and oil-fueled modernity explodes. Love struggles with lust. A cavalry troop collides with an army truck. Here, Trabish has more than tragedy in mind. His lonely, confused young protagonist moves through the horrible destruction of the Romanian oilfields only to suffer worse and worse horrors, until--unexpectedly--he finds something, something a reviewer cannot reveal. Finally, the question of oil must be settled, so the oil industry comes back into the story in a way that is beyond good and bad, beyond melodrama and tragedy.

Along the way, Trabish gives readers a greater awareness of oil and how we became addicted to it. Awareness, Paul Roberts said in THE END OF OIL, "...may be the first tentative step toward building a more sustainable energy economy. Or it may simply mean that when our energy system does begin to fail, and we begin to lose everything that energy once supplied, we won't be so surprised."

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