Socionomics Alert: Has a New Era of Political Violence Begun? Gunmen Opens Fire on Congressmen

Republican Representative Steve Scalise, the House Majority Whip, and his aides were shot during baseball practice on Wednesday morning.

The shooter was shot by the lawmaker’s security detail.

...Rep. Ron DeSantis said he was asked, “Are those Republicans or Democrats out there practicing?”

This was right before the shooting.

It's unknown if the shooter asked the question or someone else in the parking lot.

The only reason why the gunmen was stopped was because Scalise in the Majority Whip, he has a security detail. If Scalise was not there, it could have been a massacre. The gunmen seems to have planned a massacre, Senator Rand Paul says he reloaded and fired at least 50 or 60 shots. Other witnesses say the shooting continued for 10 minutes.

The 1970s (riots, impeachment, soaring crime) are an optimistic scenario if social mood declines. The extremes in wealth disparity, foreign population and declining life expectancy tells me this is much closer to the early 1920s (wave of communist and anarchist terror) , if not the late 1850s. Peter Turchin lays out many of the social and economic factors that are consistent with prior periods of civil war and social unrest.

Socionomics tells us what is possible given the prevailing mood, but what actually takes place depends on the facts on the ground. America is much closer to major upheaval than is realized. It is a powder keg, and extremely negative social mood will be the spark.

Given the history of these types of shootings, it is probably a nut with a gun. But given the prevailing social mood, it's also possible this is the start of a new era of violence targeted at politicians as happened from 1900-1920 and during the 1960s.