3.
1. Food consumption trends in China• Increase in consumer income in the past three decades has led to – a decrease in the consumption of foodgrains but – an increase in the consumption of foods of higher value, e.g., animal foods.

20.
• Rural food consumption is about 30 years behind urban.• There are large gaps in consumption between the rich and poor.• Per capita consumption of several foods of higher value by top-income rural residents is below, or even significantly below, that by bottom-income urban residents, e.g., beef, mutton, poultry eggs, dairy products, and fruits.

21.
• Further increase in food consumption in China – when rural residents’ income further improves; and – when the income of low-income consumers increases.• Attracting interests in projecting China’s food consumption for at least three important reasons: – China’s own concerns; – Exporters’ desire to tap into the Chinese market; and – Impacts on world food supply and price levels.

36.
• In 2020, China’s net imports of foods are unlikely very large.• China’s 2020 net imports will be critically affected by grain production subsidy.• In the longer term, China’s food import needs can be enormous, depending on the rates of income growth, urbanisation, and agricultural resource depletion, and the size of grain production subsidy.

37.
3. Concluding comments• SSB statistics: underestimates, missing away-from-home consumption• Food consumption growth potential: gap between rural and urban and the rich and poor• Net imports: relatively small in the near future; can be large in the longer term.

39.
Drivers behind the trends• Rising disposable income• Rapid urbanisation• Changing life style• Availability of new cooking methods• Changes in tastes and preferences• Better organisation of food production and marketing• Changes in population structure.