Despite Heat, Dry Weather, It's No Drought

Because of last year's record rainfall, lawns are staying green and farm crops aren't in much danger.

Despite a dry couple of months with temperatures getting hotter by the day, Virginia is not approaching drought conditions, weather experts say.

But if the weather continues on its current path, the state could begin to look a little brown in a few months. Right now, lawns are staying green and farm crops aren't in too much danger, but everyone is watching the skies and hoping for some rain -- which could come today.

"I'm not complaining," said Thom Poulos, owner of Coastal Lawn Service Inc. in Williamsburg. "I'm not saying it's the greatest, but it's OK. Wait a few more weeks and then I'll be complaining."

Rainfall amounts have been well below normal since the beginning of the year, but it hasn't been a problem so far because of all the rain Virginia had last year, said Keith Lynch, a hydrologist at the National Weather Service in Wakefield.

Thanks in large part to Hurricane Isabel, the groundwater tables are still high and keeping everything moisturized, Lynch said. Lakes and reservoirs are still full.

"It has been kind of dry, but not dry enough," Lynch said Tuesday. "If it goes too much into the summer, we could start to see some problems."

Fortunately, there's a strong chance for some rain today on the Peninsula. Forecasters estimate a 60 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning and afternoon. Although afternoon showers have frequently been in the forecast lately, Lynch said there is a good chance for some rain this week. Every little bit helps, even if it's an afternoon shower.

"They're talking about rain and we're hoping it will come through," said Dennis Spady, an Isle of Wight County farmer who has been nervously watching the weather, hoping it will bring enough moisture to nourish his soybean crop. "We're not critical yet, but we could be in another week," Spady said.

Rainfall totals were 15 to 18 inches above normal in 2003, according to the weather service. So far this year, amounts are running about 7 inches below normal.

What Virginia is seeing is not an unusual weather pattern, Lynch said, considering the high-pressure system -- called a Bermuda High -- that is sitting off the East Coast, shunting storms to the north and south. With a high-pressure system, the air tends to sink. That kind of air isn't ideal for clouds and precipitation, so the weather stays warm and dry.

The Bermuda High forms near Bermuda every summer but has come a little early this year, as it sometimes does, Lynch said. The weather system is often responsible for what's called "the dog days of summer," Lynch said.

So far, the western part of the state has been getting some rain, with the central and southeast parts of the state staying the driest, Lynch said. In Norfolk, the nearest historical climate station, rainfall amounts have been below normal every month this year.

It's too soon to say what the next couple of months will hold weatherwise, but David Tolleris, a freelance forecaster who runs the weather Web site, WxRisk.com, is predicting a hot and dry summer that could approach drought conditions.

"Drought's a strong word," Tolleris said. "We're going into a dry period that could become a drought."

The good news is that the high-pressure system will likely protect Virginia from hurricanes, at least for the first part of the hurricane season, Tolleris said. *