Outlook: Toronto

Thursday

Jul 30, 2009 at 12:01 AMJul 30, 2009 at 1:00 AM

Now in the 43rd year of a rebuilding process, the Toronto Maple Leafs have turned to American-born general manager Brian Burke to bring the Stanley Cup “home” for the first time since 1966-67. He’s the 11th Leafs GM since the Cup was hoisted in Hogtown.

Burke, on the job since the middle of last season, hasn’t been able to make the massive roster overhaul he would have liked. Tomas Kaberle, Jason Blake, Mike Van Ryn, Jeff Finger and others are still with the Leafs.

But say this about the 2009-10 Maple Leafs – even if they don’t win enough games to qualify for the playoffs, they’ll definitely leave a mark.

Burke prefers large, intimidating and competitive players, much like a certain coach of the Columbus Blue Jackets. Just look at the players he added to the Maple Leafs’ blue line this season – Mike Komisarek, Francois Beauchemin and Garnet Exelby.

Any volunteers to battle these guys for the puck in the corner?

But while the Leafs have gotten noticeably tougher – they also added forward thumper Colton Orr – they still have a massive shortage of goal-scoring.

Toronto fans would bitch about the Leafs if they went 80-0-2. But the expectations have been lowered a tad by the club’s failing to make the playoffs since the lockout that wiped out the 2004-05 season.

Mostly, the folks are glad to have a club with a little swagger. And they’re glad to – finally – be headed in the right direction.

Here are the likely top six lines as of six weeks before training camps open:

Blake-Grabovski-Ponikarovsky

Hagman-Stajan-Stempniak

Those don’t exactly scream playoff contender, but it should be noted that Grabovski has the potential to improve in his second full NHL season.

There are some candidates to move up – Mitchell, Kumelin and prospect Jiri Tlusty, for instance – but scoring goals is going to be a major issue for this club.

The third and fourth lines are no problem. Lots of grinders and heart and soul types, especially if they can resign restricted free agent Ryan Hollweg.

The bottom two lines will have to chip in some scoring, but they’ll also have to provide some intimidation. Outside of Ponikarovsky, who plays smaller than his 6-5, 220 pound frame, the Leafs are tiny on the top two lines.

The shocker – as of July 29 – is that Burke hasn’t been able to unload Kaberle via trade. There was talk a year ago that Philadelphia would have traded – get this – Jeff Carter and a No. 1 pick for Kaberle, but Kaberle wouldn’t waive his no trade clause. Ugh.

It’s highly unlikely that Kaberle -- with an open trade window in his contract -- will draw that kind of package, but the fact that he hasn’t been moved yet is a mild surprise.

That he’s still in Toronto makes it possible for the Leafs to have a truly special blue line. Komisarek and Beauchemin are physical and mobile, and Schenn is quickly joining that group. Kaberle, Van Ryn and Finger are regarded as puck-movers. That’s three good pairs right there.

Exelby figures to be the No. 7, which is a pretty good set-up. Frogren and/or White is expendable.

GOALTENDER

Vesa Toskala returns as the No. 1, but there’s a Moster looking over his shoulder. One of Burke’s big off-season signings was Swedish prospect Jonas Gustavsson, who will likely open the season as the No. 2 Total salary cap hit for both is: $4.81 million.

Toskala must play better, and it's hoped that with Gustavsson lurking in the background, he’ll finally get a push.

A .891 save percentage last season simply wasn’t good enough. The NHL median save percentage was .905. If Toskala had sustained that save percentage, he would have allowed 22 fewer goals last season.

Gustavsson is a beast, at 6-3, 195 pounds. He’s had two very good seasons in Sweden’s top league, and many think he’s ready to be the next Henrik Lundqvist.

BIG PICTURE

The Leafs have 22 NHL players signed for next season. Including their two buyouts – Darcy Tucker and Andrew Raycroft – they have a salary cap total of $53.695 million.

Burke never rests, never stops looking for another move, so it’s reasonable to assume more could be on the horizon.

The Leafs need to move another defenseman. If it’s Kaberle, they could get a top six forward in return, which would be a huge help.

NEXT WAVE

After a slow start to his NHL career – 10 goals, 10 assists in 72 games – Tlusty was sent to the AHL and found his scoring touch, In 66 games, he had 25-41-66. He has a chance to stick with the Leafs this year.

Goaltender Justin Pogge is no longer considered a top prospect. He’s had three so-so AHL seasons, and he bombed last season in seven NHL games, stopping only .844 percent of the pucks he faced.

Center Nazem Kadri, the Leaf's first-round pick this summer, is likely headed back to junior. Burke said so. But the kid will get a shot during training camp.

BIG PICTURE

The Leafs are probably one year away from being playoff caliber, and at least that from being an Eastern Conference playoff threat.

A Kaberle trade for a top six forward could hasten that arrival, of course, but it’s looking more and more as if Kaberle will stick Toronto at least through the start of the season.

Don’t expect lots of wins or high-scoring games for these Leafs. But with the infusion of big, competitive players, there will be fireworks. The Leafs won’t be pushed around.

The rebuilding has spread into its fifth decade. But the Leafs finally appear to have a plan in place, and they seem to be going in the right direction.

-- Aaron Portzline aportzline@dispatch.com twitter: @aportzline

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