Scott's numbers improve in new poll but still trails Crist

Gov. Rick Scott’s efforts to moderate his image among voters appears to be working, but he still trails his most likely opponent for next year’s governor’s race by double digits, new poll numbers show.

Overall, Scott has also shown improvement in how Floridians feel about his role as governor and in his favorable-unfavorable ratings among voters. His favorability ratings have risen to 40 percent, his highest number in polling by the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute since Scott’s 2010 election.

Some 43 percent of the voters approve of the way Scott is handling the governor’s office, another high.

But the poll’s latest figures also show former Republican Gov. Charlie Crist, now a Democrat, leading Scott 47 percent to 37 percent in a gubernatorial matchup.

The polling numbers are the first to reflect public perceptions of Scott since the recently concluded state legislative session, viewed by many as a key to improving his re-election chances for 2014.

With his popularity at a low ebb in his first year in office, Scott has worked diligently to retool his image. During the session he reversed stands on several key positions, pushing for increases in education spending — including a major pay hike for teachers — advocating an expansion of Medicaid to extend health care to more residents and supporting an overhaul of election regulations.

The Quinnipiac poll did not probe voters on those issues, but Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, said Scott is likely benefiting from an improving economy in the state.

The poll showed voters said Florida’s economy was getting better by a 33-18 percent margin, with 82 percent of the voters who saw an improvement giving Scott at least a little credit for the rise.

“Improving economies tend to help incumbents,” Brown said.

Still, Scott’s numbers are on the negative side. More voters disapprove of his overall job, at 44 percent, though it is far better than the 29 percent in May 2011.

Scott has narrowed his margin with Crist from a 50-34 percent deficit in a March Quinnipiac poll.

On the negative side, half of the voters — 50 percent — say Scott does not deserve to be re-elected, a number that hasn’t changed much in past three Quinnipiac surveys.

“It is an indication of how far down Florida Gov. Rick Scott’s numbers have been that he can take some solace from a poll that finds him losing by 10 points to his predecessor in the governor’s office,” Brown said.

For Crist, who has not declared his candidacy but is widely expected to challenge Scott, Brown said his 10-point advantage over Scott is a “formidable number,” despite the 6-point decline.

Brown said the key number to watch for Crist is how voters feel about his party switch. They favored it by a 47-44 percent margin in the new survey, although that is a decline from 50-40 percent in March.

Republicans have already sought to discredit Crist with an aggressive campaign outlining shifts in his positions after his party switch.

The new poll also shows U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson, who has largely ruled out a gubernatorial bid, beating Scott by 48-38 percent. But it shows Scott beating former state Sen. Nan Rich, D-Weston, who has announced her candidacy, by 42-36 percent.

Brown said it was too early to tell if the latest poll was a sign of a clear rise in Scott’s popularity.

“Whether it is the start of something larger, we’ll see in the coming months,” Brown said.

Steve Schale, a Democratic strategist, discounted the overall numbers, saying a double-digit lead by any gubernatorial candidate is unrealistic given Florida’s highly competitive statewide races.

While he acknowledged that Scott’s job approval and favorability numbers are improving, Schale said Scott’s highly negative numbers among independent voters has to be troubling for the GOP candidate.

In the Crist matchup, independent voters favored the Democrat over Scott by a 45-33 percent margin.

With the Democratic candidate and Scott battling for the middle of the electorate next year, Schale said Scott will have to improve those numbers to win re-election.

Brown echoed that analysis, saying Scott will also have to improve his numbers among Republicans and women, both groups in which Crist had a sizable lead.

“That’s a tall order, but there are 17 months until the election,” Brown said.

Quinnipiac surveyed 1,176 registered Florida voters between June 11-16. The poll has a margin of error of 2.9 percent.

Lloyd Dunkelberger

Lloyd Dunkelberger is the Htpolitics.com Capital Bureau Chief.
He can be reached by email or call 850 556-3542.
""More Dunkelberger"
Make sure to "Like" HT Politics on Facebook for all your breaking political news.

Last modified: June 18, 2013
All rights reserved. This copyrighted material may not be published without permissions. Links are encouraged.