Mr Firth's Speech and Other 2011 Oscar Predictions

Last year I did pretty well with my Oscar predictions when not deviating too far from the bookies' favourites. You know they do their homework. Longshots very rarely make it.

Based on that line of reasoning, this year's voting slip seems to have come with one field already filled in. Colin Firth has already won the Best Actor. Okay, there is the formality of anguished close-ups as the golden envelope is tremulously ripped open, and Mr Firth must give his victory speech (what are the odds that he will be tongue-tied like the regal character of his film?), but the little statuette is as good as his.

Colin Firth had his first nomination last year for his bereaving, gay professor in A Single Man. So he's got the momentum of a recent nom in the same category, and the feel-good, royal character always helps in La-la land. And he's Colin Firth. If he's doesn't win, it will be the biggest British upset in recent Oscar history. Bookmaker Paddy Power is even offering to refund losing bets on the Oscars 2011 if Firth doesn't win for Best Actor.

It will also probably mean that the film doesn't manage to convert its numerous nominations into a haul of Oscars. I'm assuming that the King's Speech will do well in my choice of winners. It has a total of 12 nominations for (take a breath) aforementioned Lead Actor, Geoffrey Rush as Actor in a Supporting Role, Helena Bonham Carter for Actress in a Supporting Role, Art Direction, Cinematography, Costume Design, Directing, Film Editing, Original Score, Best Picture, Sound Mixing, and Original Screenplay.

Looking at the bookies' picks there's still many close calls: Best Picture seems to be a coin toss between Social Network and The King's Speech from among the 10 nominations. You can get 100/1 odds on Danny Boyle's 127 Hours and Winters Bone. True Grit is languishing at 40/1 - probably a good outsider to have a punt on here. As I suggested last year, grittiness does well in the Oscars. This year it will probably be of the regal determination kind that scores well. As a consolation David Fincher will win the director award for the Social Network.

I'd like to see Banksy turn up at the Osars in a monkey outfit, but when I weigh up the two favourites in the documentary category, Through the Gift Shop and Inside Job, there's no doubt in my mind which was more powerful and memorable.

I'd also like to see the beautiful, Edinburgh-set animation The Illusionist earn an Oscar, but the mega-watt energy, and home advantage, that Woody, Buzz, and co. bring from Toy Story III, will likely blow this more modest creation out of the water. Yes, it is a trequel, but Academy members are probably passed caring about that kind of thing, certainly for the animation category.