WTIO21 PGTW 182230RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.2N 89.7E TO 22.7N 91.3EWITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFYISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-AGERY AT 181818Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATEDNEAR 20.0N 90.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 10KNOTS.2. REMARKS:3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 192230Z.//9411101606 141N 932E 159411101612 141N 923E 159411101618 141N 914E 159411101700 141N 906E 159411101706 148N 898E 159411101712 157N 890E 159411101718 168N 884E 159411101800 177N 885E 159411101806 185N 891E 209411101812 193N 897E 209411101818 200N 904E 20

Latest satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that a depression has formed over north Bay of Bengal and lay centred at 0530 hrs IST of today, the 19th October 2011 near latitude 20.00N and longitude 90.50E, about 350 km east-southeast of Digha, 300 km south-southwest of Chittagong (Bangladesh), 250 km southwest of Cox's Bazar (Bangladesh), 250 km west of Sittwe (Myanmar). The system is likely to intensify further into a deep depression and move northeastwards and cross Bangladesh coast between Chittagong and Cox's Bazar by tonight or tomorrow, the 20th October, 2011 morning.

Under its influence, rain/thundershower would occur at most places with isolated heavy falls over Tripura, Mizoram and Manipur during next 48 hrs.

Strong wind speed reaching 30-40 kmph would prevail along and off West Bengal coast during next 24 hrs.

The next bulletin will be issued at 1130 hrs IST of today, the 19th October, 2011

The deep depression over the northeast Bay of Bengal moved northeastwards and crossed Bangladesh coast close to the south of Cox Bazar around 1830 hrs IST and It lay centred at 2030 hrs IST of today, the 19th October 2011 over Bangladesh near latitude 21.50N & longitude 92.50E. The system is likely to move northeastwards, weaken gradually into a well marked low pressure area during next 24 hours.

Based on latest analysis with NWP models and other conventional techniques, estimated track and intensity of the system are given in the Table below:

Date/Time(IST)

Position (lat. 0N/ long. 0E)

Sustained maximum surface wind speed (kmph)

19-10-2011/2030

21.5/92.5

55-65 gusting to 75

19-10-2011/2330

21.5/92.5

50-60 gusting to 70

20-10-2011/0530

22.0/93.0

40-50 gusting to 60

20-10-2011/1130

23.0/94.5

20-30 gusting to 40

Under its influence, rain/thundershower would occur at most places with isolated heavy falls over Tripura, Mizoram and Manipur during next 24 hrs.

The next bulletin will be issued at 0230 hrs IST of tomorrow, the 20th October, 2011