Trade War and Peace: Which Markets Are Most At Risk

Jeff specializes in analyzing international market trends and their financial implications. He's frequently cited in a range of national media outlets including The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times. He has an MBA from Pennsylvania State University.

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The trade measures enacted and proposed so far do not constitute a trade war, but they aren’t “trade peace” either.

As a number of trade issues develop in the coming weeks and months, markets may remain on edge and prone to bouts of volatility.

Escalating trade frictions on the growth of economies and companies could weigh on stocks, especially on emerging market stocks.

Global stocks gave up roughly half of their recovery from the February correction last week as President Trump previewed his plan to impose a 25% tariff on steel imports and 10% on aluminum. Not every new tariff constitutes a trade war—metals have often been a target of U.S. tariffs with steel tariffs imposed by each of Trump’s recent predecessors in the White House. Although small in economic impact, these tariffs are symbolically important. Rather than overreacting to the announced tariffs, market participants may be worrying that there is much more to come and presage a global trade war with broad negative consequences for economic growth and corporate profits. However, a trade war may not be forthcoming. After all, a lot of news stories have been written about the start of a trade war during the past year and a half, yet trade volume growth has marched steadily higher, as you can see in the chart below.

Trade war warnings haven’t slowed trade growth

Source: Charles Schwab, Bloomberg data as of 3/3/2018.

Total world trade is equivalent to more than half of the world’s economic output, according to data from the World Bank. So it is easy to see why developments that may impact the flow of the world’s goods and services across borders can have a big impact on the world economy and the earnings of global companies.

Retaliation to tariffs

The metal tariffs mark an escalation by the Trump administration relative to the modest trade actions taken so far and may provoke retaliation by impacted countries, posing further risk to the markets in the coming weeks or months.

The main focus will be on any retaliation by China. There may not be any; China has made no specific promise of retaliation to the metal tariffs. The U.S. ranks 26th on the list of countries China exports steel to. But in recent months, the Chinese press has identified potential measures the government could take in response to U.S. trade actions which include agricultural products, aircraft, technology, and even Treasury purchases.

China doesn’t even make it into the list of top ten sources of U.S. steel imports, as you can see in the chart below. Instead, Canada tops the list. Since the Trump administration is citing national security reasons, NAFTA does not provide any protection from the tariffs. It is possible that exemptions from the steel and aluminum tariffs for countries such as Canada may emerge as part of NAFTA negotiations, muting the impact and easing some market worries about the breadth of the trade measures.

U.S. steel imports: top 10 sources

Source: U.S. Commerce department. Data is year-to-date as of September 2017 (most current data available as of 3/3/3018).

Looking beyond China and Canada, there are potential retaliatory actions that may be taken by the countries that make up more than 50% of steel imports to the United States.

Brazil, the number two steel suppler to the U.S. behind Canada, signaled that they may target U.S. coal exports. Although Brazil’s largest stock is a metals producer, making up 10% of its stock market, Brazil’s economy is in recovery and the U.S. metals tariffs by themselves are not likely to change this in our view.

South Korea, the third largest supplier at 10% of U.S. imports, vowed to make a complaint to the World Trade Organization (WTO), but did not mention any specific retaliation. South Korea’s economy is much more tied to technology than metal production (42% of the MSCI Korea Index consists of tech companies while metal producers make up only 3%) so the economic impact should be muted limiting the likelihood of major retaliation.

While Germany is the only European Union (EU) member nation to make the top ten, the EU nations of Germany, U.K., Sweden, Netherlands, Italy and Spain make up a combined 10% of U.S. steel imports and together account for the fourth largest supplier of U.S. imported steel. However, the metal mining companies make up less than 3% of the MSCI Europe Index. The EU, a close ally, might get an exemption from the national security tariffs. If not, leaders have vowed to file a complaint with the WTO and retaliate, primarily focusing on some select U.S. agricultural products. In addition, EU President, Jean Claude Juncker cited “tariffs on Harley Davidson, on bourbon and on blue jeans — Levi's” as potential targets of retaliation.

Mexico supplies 9% of U.S. steel imports, rounding out the top five suppliers. Mexico has a lot riding on its trade relationship with the U.S. and we believe is most at risk of heightened trade conflict. Mexican officials indicated that they may retaliate, but haven’t specified targets. Mexico imports a wide variety of agricultural products and machinery from the United States.

Trade war losers

A key concern is that the metal tariffs may be just the opening salvo targeting countries perceived to be engaging in “unfair trading practices”, with more to come in the coming weeks. China may be a specific target, pending the outcome of the Trump administrations review of China’s alleged “theft” of U.S. intellectual property rights. This could result in tariffs, quotas, and investment restrictions. This so-called Section 301 probe could raise a much larger risk of a trade war than the metals tariffs.

If the coming weeks reveal the start of a broader trade war, the average company in the MSCI AC World Index faces significant risks to profits with more than half of sales coming from international trade. But that exposure is not evenly shared across the globe, companies in some countries and regions have more exposure to world trade than others. One way to look at what areas may be most impacted by a trade war is by trade exposure of companies that make up different countries stock markets, which you can see in the chart below.

Perhaps surprisingly, Chinese companies have relatively little international trade exposure with the vast majority of sales driven by domestic demand from the largest consumer market in the world that lies within its own borders. Companies in developed countries outside the U.S. have a greater percentage of international sales than U.S. companies. But, it is worth noting that the European companies trade a lot with each other. For example, while German companies get more than 75% of sales outside of the country, more than half of their sales are from other countries within the European Union where trade barriers among members are unlikely to rise this year. That could offset the greater international sales exposure and may actually make European companies more insulated from a trade war than their sales mix would suggest.

The equity asset class that may have the most to lose from a trade war is emerging market stocks. The performance of emerging market stocks is more sensitive to changes in global trade than developed market stocks, as you can see in the chart below. A downturn in global trade volume (usually associated with bouts of global economic weakness) has historically led to emerging market stock underperformance.

Both data series (MSCI Emerging Markets Index and MSCI World Index) are three month moving averages.
Source: Charles Schwab, Bloomberg data as of 3/3/2018.

War and peace

The market impact of escalating trade frictions on the growth of economies and companies may begin to weigh on stocks, especially on emerging market stocks. The measures enacted and proposed so far do not constitute a trade war, but they aren’t “trade peace” either. That uncertainty is likely to leave markets on edge and prone to bouts of volatility as trade issues develop in the coming weeks and months (including any tariff retaliation, intellectual property theft investigation, and both NAFTA and Brexit negotiation).

Disclosure

Important Disclosures:

The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision.

All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.

Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve.

The MSCI ACWI captures large and mid cap representation across 23 Developed Markets and 24 Emerging Markets countries. With 2,495 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the global investable equity opportunity set.

The MSCI World Index captures large and mid cap representation across 23 Developed Markets (DM) countries*. With 1,649 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index captures large and mid cap representation across 24 Emerging Markets (EM) countries*. With 846 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.

The MSCI Australia Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid cap segments of the Australia market. With 68 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in Australia.

The MSCI Japan Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid cap segments of the Japanese market. With 321 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in Japan.

The MSCI USA Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid cap segments of the US market. With 632 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in the US.

The MSCI Netherlands Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid cap segments of the Netherlands market. With 22 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in Netherlands.
The MSCI Canada Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid cap segments of the Canada market. With 91 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in Canada.

The MSCI Korea Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid cap segments of the South Korean market. With 113 constituents, the index covers about 85% of the Korean equity universe.

The MSCI India Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid cap segments of the Indian market. With 79 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the Indian equity universe.
The MSCI United Kingdom Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid cap segments of the UK market. With 102 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in the UK.
The MSCI Switzerland Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid cap segments of the Swiss market. With 37 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in Switzerland.

The MSCI Hong Kong Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid cap segments of the Hong Kong market. With 48 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization of the Hong Kong equity universe.

The MSCI Spain Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid cap segments of the Spanish market. With 23 constituents, the index covers about 85% of the equity universe in Spain.

The MSCI France Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid cap segments of the French market. With 80 constituents, the index covers about 85% of the equity universe in France.

The MSCI Taiwan Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid cap segments of the Taiwan market. With 90 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in Taiwan.
The MSCI Germany Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid cap segments of the German market. With 63 constituents, the index covers about 85% of the equity universe in Germany.

Important Disclosures:

The information provided here is for general informational purposes only and should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned here may not be suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decision.

All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market conditions. Data contained herein from third-party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.

Examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve.

The MSCI ACWI captures large and mid cap representation across 23 Developed Markets and 24 Emerging Markets countries. With 2,495 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the global investable equity opportunity set.

The MSCI World Index captures large and mid cap representation across 23 Developed Markets (DM) countries*. With 1,649 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index captures large and mid cap representation across 24 Emerging Markets (EM) countries*. With 846 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.

The MSCI Australia Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid cap segments of the Australia market. With 68 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in Australia.

The MSCI Japan Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid cap segments of the Japanese market. With 321 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in Japan.

The MSCI USA Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid cap segments of the US market. With 632 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in the US.

The MSCI Netherlands Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid cap segments of the Netherlands market. With 22 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in Netherlands.
The MSCI Canada Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid cap segments of the Canada market. With 91 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in Canada.

The MSCI Korea Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid cap segments of the South Korean market. With 113 constituents, the index covers about 85% of the Korean equity universe.

The MSCI India Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid cap segments of the Indian market. With 79 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the Indian equity universe.
The MSCI United Kingdom Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid cap segments of the UK market. With 102 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in the UK.
The MSCI Switzerland Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid cap segments of the Swiss market. With 37 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in Switzerland.

The MSCI Hong Kong Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid cap segments of the Hong Kong market. With 48 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization of the Hong Kong equity universe.

The MSCI Spain Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid cap segments of the Spanish market. With 23 constituents, the index covers about 85% of the equity universe in Spain.

The MSCI France Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid cap segments of the French market. With 80 constituents, the index covers about 85% of the equity universe in France.

The MSCI Taiwan Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid cap segments of the Taiwan market. With 90 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in Taiwan.
The MSCI Germany Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid cap segments of the German market. With 63 constituents, the index covers about 85% of the equity universe in Germany.

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