Cory’s Mixed Tout Recap

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***Also note that Cory has updated his composite projections (scroll down on previous post) to reflect every playing time projection, role change and injury update tweak that he could find. There have been very very minor changes to some rate stats to reflect changing roles (closer changes, lineup order, etc.) but otherwise these numbers are VERY much in line with the rate stats from the original composite projections.

On Saturday I participated in the Tout Wars 15-team mixed league auction, my first time in this event after seven years in the NL-only league. In my planning I correctly assessed that the endgame would be much easier to manage than in the unmixed league, due to the superior depth of the mixed player pool, but what I didn’t anticipate was how that depth would impact overall player valuation. Before we get to my roster, a little math:

TIER # PROJ DRAFT INF

$40+ 4 $42 $40 95%

$30-39 8 $33 $39 118%

$25-29 11 $27 $32 119%

$20-24 21 $22 $24 109%

$15-19 30 $17 $18 106%

$10-14 47 $12 $11 92%

$5-9 38 $7 $5 71%

The above table shows draft inflation for all position players I projected to go for $5 or more. What jumps out quite plainly is that while the elite players went for only slightly less than I expected, the next few tiers of players went for considerably more, and the “end game” portion of the player pool was also much larger than I expected, resulting in considerable discounting of complimentary players. Clearly, a “stars and scrubs” type of approach was far more prevalent than the “spread the risk” strategy, which in hindsight makes sense, and for which I wasn’t fully and properly prepared. With so much freely available talent in a mixed league, extra dollars should be spent on the top-tier of players, who are harder to find, then $5 or $8 players who are in greater supply. Pitching was similarly discounted.

With nothing but the greatest respect for those who purchased them, here are the top 11 overspends in the draft, based on my projected salaries and their actual costs:

PLAYER PROJ$ DRAFT$ OVER

Ramirez, Hanley $26 $39 $13

Gonzalez, Adrian $31 $40 $9

Pedroia, Dustin $27 $36 $9

Teixeira, Mark $25 $34 $9

Cano, Robinson $31 $39 $8

Longoria, Evan $25 $33 $8

Bruce, Jay $20 $28 $8

Gonzalez, Carlos $33 $40 $7

Upton, Justin $33 $40 $7

Beltre, Adrian $24 $30 $6

Phillips, Brandon $19 $25 $6

So, how did that affect my team? First, the overall roster by position (including projected and actual salaries):

POS PLAYER PROJ$ DRAFT$

C Montero, Jesus $18 $14

C Hanigan, Ryan $0 $1

1B Hosmer, Eric $23 $26

3B Encarnacion, Edwin $10 $9

CI Goldschmidt, Paul $15 $18

2B Kinsler, Ian $29 $31

SS Cabrera, Asdrubal $19 $18

MI Rodriguez, Sean $1 $1

UT Headley, Chase $8 $1

OF McCutchen, Andrew $28 $30

OF Heyward, Jason $17 $15

OF Boesch, Brennan $12 $12

OF Presley, Alex $7 $4

OF Heisey, Chris $3 $1

POS PLAYER PROJ$ DRAFT$

SP Morrow, Brandon $12 $13

SP Zimmermann, Jordan $15 $9

SP Scherzer, Max $12 $8

SP McCarthy, Brandon $9 $7

SP Santana, Johan $8 $3

CL? Broxton, Jonathan $4 $1

CL? Guerra, Javy $6 $6

CL Hanrahan, Joel $14 $13

CL Kimbrel, Craig $21 $19

By my projections I managed to get $190 of hitting value onto my roster for only $181, with most of the discounts coming in the middle and lower tiers as noted above. But I really cleaned up in pitching, getting $101 of projected value for only $79, albeit with a staff full of red-flag injury risks.

Understanding how this auction played out, though, is better achieved by looking at my team in terms of salary scale, since I started out with a handful of targeted players in pre-determined salary slots and then had to adjust as the auction progressed.

POS PLAYER PROJ$ DRAFT$

2B Kinsler, Ian $29 $31

OF McCutchen, Andrew $28 $30

1B Hosmer, Eric $23 $26

SS Cabrera, Asdrubal $19 $18

1B Goldschmidt, Paul $15 $18

OF Heyward, Jason $17 $15

C Montero, Jesus $18 $14

OF Boesch, Brennan $12 $12

1/3 Encarnacion, Edwin $10 $9

OF Presley, Alex $7 $4

3B Headley, Chase $8 $1

OF Heisey, Chris $3 $1

2/3/S Rodriguez, Sean $1 $1

C Hanigan, Ryan $0 $1

I had budgeted $35 for my top hitter and hoped to get Joey Votto for that, but he and the other second-tier bats went for several dollars more than I was willing to spend, so rather than chasing at that level, I held back on my money and redistributed it to my next few picks. That allowed me to overspend (according to my own projections) on Kinsler, McCutchen, Hosmer and Goldschmidt, but to still get them at prices that fit the salary scale that evolved during the draft. In other words, what may seem like overspends here look a lot better when compared to what other players were going for.

Saving a little at the top also allowed me to get Cabrera and Montero – two guys I hoped for but didn’t think I’d be able to afford – at what I felt were very fair prices, especially since Montero qualifies at catcher in Tout Wars! In fact, Cabrera was one of only two top-ten shortstops, along with Erick Aybar, who went for less than my projected cost, so I think he was an excellent buy.

And, while they are the type of players who were heavily discounted throughout this draft, I love getting Presley, Headley and Heisey for fill-in prices. Getting E5 for $9? Heaven. I would’ve gone to $14!

No need to go heavily into my pitching… discounts galore. I paid full price for Morrow, expecting him to get his ERA down into the upper 3’s along with the other improvements, but everyone else I liked went for nice discounts. I was shocked to get Zimmermann and Scherzer for a total of $17, and very pleased that Kimbrel, even as the top-priced closer, went for $2 less than I would’ve paid for him. You can’t realistically play pitch-or-ditch in a 15-team weekly league, but I added Phil Humber, Bartolo Colon and Homer Bailey as reserve picks to make sure I’d have plenty of starting depth to work with and compensate for the injury risks on my staff.

Overall, I’m very happy with my team… although I didn’t get every player I targeted, I got many of them, and didn’t have to badly overspend on any. My projected standings have me in the top five, and while I’d love to win, I’d be equally happy if my team fully met my expectations and finished fifth. I picked players that I believe will improve and produce, and if they all do that, I’ll consider this a very successful draft.

I’m NOT going to post my spreadsheet yet, since I still have to prep for my 15-team mixed NFBC draft weekend, and don’t want to provide any further clues as to my player valuation or plans for that league. But, with the most recent projections posted this week, it should be clear who I’m optimistic about…

Thoughts? Comments? Bring ‘em on!

Thanks,

Cory

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8 Comments

Cory –

I listened to XM and even followed the spreadsheet of Tout some this weekend. All in all, I think Siano, Zach S. and you should each be somewhat happy with the teams you assembled given the constraints each of you faced with the way the auction values shaped up. You and Zach for bragging rights will be enjoyable as the season plays on.

I think for you, especially your $1 bids of Hanigan, Rodriquez, Heisey and Headley could all pay of big (and obviously easily earn the $1). Getting Presley at $4, could also be nice. The foundation of Kinsler, McCutheon, and even an expected payoff of Hosmer should cover the production baselines. Expecting the annual “E5″ production is something you have lived and died with in the past. Fun to see you sweat it out again this year it seems. This year, Haywood and Boesch could be the breakouts you need. Goldschmidt might be the modern day Dave Kingman.

Your arms to me are solid, and especially McCarthy for only $7. Broxton may be a reward (although would have to think G. Holland will get the gig, but who knows). J. Guerra is the right choice for CL gamble for now based on Donnie Baseball’s endorsement and the old “road to 5th place….” mindset.

All in all, very nice.

P.S. I put my Mixed 12-team Snake H2H (5 man future keeper starting off this draft) in the previous thread (drafted prior to your updated composite sheet), and would like to know how you think I fared with my draft decision to pass on pitching as it turned out until my first arm in the 13th round with all the bat value falling to me each round.

Sounds like Trout isn’t going to open the year in the big leagues but I wouldn’t mind holding onto him in leagues 12 teams or larger. I think it’s only a matter of time before he gets the call and he’ll be a difference maker, particularly in the speed department.

Pass on Lohse and Vargas. I don’t really consider them roster worthy at this point in standard mixed leagues. They’re pitch or ditch guys.

H2H league and with Soria out for the year I lost a closer. Currently I have Storen, Hanrahan, and Guerra. I picked up Broxton hoping he would be the closer in KC now. Do I have enough saves in these 3 (possibly 4) guys or should I go looking for more?

Jayson, I generally split my auction spending 70/30, and wanted at least two strong closers since it’s a mixed league, so that didn’t really leave enough to spend on a “true” ace or even a #1, so I am taking the depth/upside approach. My hope/expectation is that Zimmermann could actually become that guy if he throws 190-200 IP, and I like the upside on Morrow, McCarthy, Scherzer and Johan. It’s a risky approach but I’ll take my chances!

My league just drafted last night and I’m looking for constructive feedback. What did I do right? What are my weaknesses? What do I need to improve on? This was a much deeper draft than what I am normally used to, so I could really use the feedback. (And before you say anything, I know I screwed up drafting Carpenter. I forgot to update my research and didn’t know until afterwards.) I really appreciate the feedback you guys provide, and hopefully this is the year I win it all. I came close last year getting 2nd place (a personal best), and it was in a large part due to your advice. Thanks.

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