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MLB Picks

MLB Pick: Underdog Value Play Wednesday

Each day LT Profits Sports seeks an MLB overlay that has a better chance of cashing than its odds, offering long term value. Here is their Underdog Value Play for Wednesday.

The team with the best record in the American League could be vulnerable at a nice price Wednesday when Nick Tepesch and the Texas Rangers (35-36, 19-17 away) pay a visit to fellow right-hander Sonny Gray and those Oakland Athletics (43-28, 20-14 home) in the final game of a three-game series from O.co Coliseum in Oakland, CA at 3:35 ET.

The posted money line at Pinnacle Sports has Texas as a decided road underdog for this contest at current odds of +156.

Gray stood at 5-1 with a 1.99 ERA following his May 22nd start vs. the Tampa Bay Rays, but in his four starts since then he is 1-2 with a 5.63 ERA and 1.46 WHIP while allowing a bare minimum of three earned runs in all four of those outings. Sure that still leaves Gray at 6-3 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.18 WHIP overall, but the youngster has not been quite as good sabremetrically.

That is because Gray’s walks are now up to a disturbing 3.13 per nine innings and he has been a tad lucky surrendering a .272 BABIP, resulting in a 3.33 FIP and 3.43 xFIP that are both running behind his ERA. And facing a Texas offense that has scored 20 runs in two games does not help matters, nor does the normally great Oakland bullpen being in a collective slump right now, as that unit has a 5.13 ERA and 1.56 WHIP over the last 10 games.

Tepesch bombed out when he made the Texas starting rotation as a rookie out of spring training last season, but if Friday’s start is any indication, he is more mature now and perhaps more ready to realize the potential that the Rangers saw in him.

Add in the nice price and Texas seems to offer good value in Oakland on Wednesday.