Bounce: New polls show Romney leading in Michigan, Wisconsin after Ryan pick

posted at 8:01 pm on August 21, 2012 by Allahpundit

PPP’s first Wisconsin poll since Mitt Romney announced Paul Ryan as his running mate finds him taking a small lead over Barack Obama in the state, 48-47. That represents a 7 point shift from PPP’s last look at the state in early July, which found Obama ahead 50-44.

The biggest change Ryan’s selection seems to have brought about is the unification of the GOP. Romney’s gone from a 78 point lead with Republicans on our last poll (87-9) to now an 88 point lead with them (93-5). There’s also been a tightening with independents. Obama still has a 4 point lead with them at 47-43, but that’s down from a 14 point advantage at 53-39 six weeks ago. Democrats are unchanged from the previous poll…

Choosing Ryan as his running mate isn’t giving Romney any trouble with seniors in Wisconsin. That’s actually where his greatest strength is, leading Obama 52-43 with them. Which isn’t to say the Ryan Plan is popular in Wisconsin- only 40% of voters support it to 46% who are opposed. But the concern with it is coming much more from young voters than seniors.

Two concerns with this poll. One: They’ve got the sample R+2, which isn’t totally nutty but still seems hard to believe for a presidential election in a reliably bluish state. Granted, the exit poll for Scott Walker’s recall win showed a net turnout of R+1, and granted, we’ve got a native son on the ticket this year. But the Dems’ turnout advantage four years ago was D+6. Are we really going to swing that a full eight points this time? I can see Romney winning the state, but not necessarily with a two-point spread for Republicans at the polls. Two: Behold the saddest of all demographic splits, my friends.

Senior citizens and near-seniors, who’ve already paid in and depend on their benefits being there right now, are actually pretty chill about The End Of Medicare As We Know It. Young adults, though, who’ll be sucked into a fiscal black hole if this program isn’t reformed in the near term? Total basket case. If ever you doubted the astounding influence of liberal orthodoxy on college students and recent grads, look at those numbers and let your doubts melt away.

In the Foster McCollum White Baydoun poll for Fox 2 News Detroit of Michigan most likely voters in June, President Obama had a slight lead of 1.14 points (46.89% to 45.48%), within the margin of error. In the past seven weeks, not only has Mitt Romney stayed close, but now he has vaulted to the lead in Michigan. Our poll finding suggests that the naming of Paul Ryan as his running mate has given him the spark he needed. Romney now leads in Michigan by 3.8 points, a net gain of 5.21 points from June (Romney 47.68% to Obama 43.88%)…

In spite of national criticism of the Ryan selection and budget plan, our findings suggest that Michigan voters are viewing both as positives for Romney. 36.11% of Michigan voters are more likely to vote for Romney because of the Paul Ryan selection while only 27.90% are less likely to vote for Romney.

The good news? The sample here was big and well targeted: 1,733 respondents, all of whom identified as likely voters. Unfortunately, there’s no partisan split provided so it’s hard to tell who’s been oversampled. But this seems promising, even if the results in the “strongly support/oppose” columns aren’t:

The one hitch here is that, over the past two months, there’s been just one other poll showing Romney in the lead in Michigan, and that poll — Mitchell Reports, conducted on July 23 — showed him up by a single point. The most recent poll from Mitchell was conducted on August 13, two days after Ryan’s introduction as VP. That one showed Romney … suddenly trailing in Michigan by five points. Assuming that one’s accurate and the one quoted above is the outlier, I wonder what caused Mitt to dip. It’s probably not Ryan; Mediscare or no, a VP pick’s not going to weigh on the ticket that heavily that soon. It must be the Bain/tax attacks. Flag these two results now, as the next Michigan poll will settle the issue of who’s right.