The ALP’s defeat in the NSW state by-election for Penrith presaged the party’s massive defeat 8 months later and did nothing to calm fears about Kevin Rudd’s leadership of the Federal party.

The ALP held the western Sydney electorate by 9.1% before the by-election. The sitting member had resigned after becoming embroiled in an Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC) investigation.

The Liberal candidate, Stuart Ayres, won the seat with a 25.73% two-party-preferred swing. The ALP’s primary vote fell by 24.19% to just 24.48%. [Read more…]