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Soccer Picks: Catania vs. AC Milan Serie A Tips

Sportsbooks have released a whole slew of
odds on Serie A action this weekend, including the tilt between Catania and AC
Milan. Where is the value to be had? Find out as we rundown through the odds.

AC Milan
are odds on favourites on the road

The last time AC Milan recorded a win in
Serie A was on October 19 when they beat Udinese 1-0 at home. The last time
they recorded a win on the road was May 19 (that’s last season, by the way)
when they beat Sienna 2-1. Do you get the sense of a trend here?

You should and it doesn’t read well for the
Rossoneri. To put it bluntly: AC
Milan can’t seem to buy a win no matter how hard they try. They are abysmally
off form this season, wholly underachieving despite their lofty standards,
indisputable quality and bevy of talent.

So AC Milan, all of a sudden, as the odds-on favourites across sportsbooks
ahead of week 14 Serie A betting is a bit perplexing wouldn’t you say. What are
the odds makers on about?

Well, it’s not for us to presume to know
what they are thinking. What we do know is that AC Milan is a reputable big
club and reputations that precede certain clubs can shape market perceptions.
As well, Catania’s position – smack bottom and propping up the league – compared
to AC Milan’s seemingly better mid-table position is rather conspicuous and it might
go further towards explaining this market cast call.

But upon closer inspection crucial facts come
to light that sports bettors need to carefully consider before determining any soccer picks.

First of all, there really isn’t a whole
lot of difference between Catania’s 20th position thanks to a 2-3-8
record and just 9 points through 13 laps of Serie A and AC Milan’s 13th
position on the back of a 3-5-5 record and just 14 points. As you can see, it
amounts to just five points. It’s not much to hang your hat on admittedly, if
you are inclined towards AC Milan here.

Let’s also keep in mind that AC Milan have
yet to win on the road this season. The best they’ve managed was a draw, which
they magically pulled off three times having gone 0-3-3 in six outings. And if
that isn’t disappointing enough, those missed opportunities came against subpar
lightweights in the league. And as recently as Chievo, a side that ranked 20th
then (incidentally, just as Catania is now). The only club of note
they’ve had the pleasure of visiting during this stretch was Juventus, against
which they lost 3-2.

On the flipside, Catania have a delightfully
surprising home record that boasts just one defeat in six rounds. Yet sportsbooks are taking no stock of it,
sending them into this clash at the huge disadvantage, at whopping +375 soccer odds to win outright.

Overall, they are 2-3-1 at home with the
lone defeat coming to Internazionale – seeing that Inter are fourth in the
table, it’s an understandable defeat that one can’t really hold against them.
The encouraging accounts include the win over Udinese and both draws to Genoa
and Parma.

What’s more Catania play well within
themselves at home, they defend stoically and only take calculated risks on
attack. Overall, they’ve scored four goals and conceded four goals, although
the goals against number is skewed by the 3-0 defeat to Inter Milan. Take away
those three goals, Catania have in fact only conceded once in five home
matches. That’s rather impressive wouldn’t you say?

So when put into such context the only
question begging: should AC Milan be the odds-on-favourite? To put it another
way: think you they are a worthwhile soccer pick?

Soccer Betting Verdict: For our money, AC
Milan are just too steep. Besides, they seem to have lost the plot lately. It
might not be a permanent state of affairs; they do have enough quality to turn
things around at any point in time. But right now, based on current form and
overall plight, they don’t appear to be the smart pick. Rather Catania on the
draw at +260 or the home win at +375 at Bet36 would appear of much better value for your soccer picks. One or the
other certainly would be our recommendation for this match.