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Monday, 31 December 2012

Having a look at the weekly chart on SPX there seems to be a bullish flag now forming on the charts which means technically 1500 - 1510 is the possible upside target now. The first objective would be the 1460 - 1470 level. So we will just wait and see.

Once we break the upside resistance we could be off to the races. But no need to get carried away, and just take it each day as it comes. This chart after the holidays, and with the massive action today, is again looking quite nice, and again room to move on the upside.

As said, the market has been in typical holiday reversal the last few weeks.

As the BS fiscal cliff is working itself out, the smart money is only just starting to come back into the market, the market pops up. :-) Exactly what we were expecting and posted a few days ago.

This is a great lesson to learn if you are new to trading to look for reversals, and then re-reversals after the holidays come to an end.

As we have been saying to NOT FALL IN LOVE with the downside. Now you can see why. :-D

It was not a good day for bears today, but the good news for bulls is that the smart money is not entirely back in the market, and leading breadth and indicators are suggesting there is more up coming. Today however, was a very good victory for the bulls, and confirming that they have not lost hope.

As you can see on the charts, we sold off in globex, but then snapped back hard by the end of the day. There is not much reason to count the last 2 weeks due to holidays and low volume. But the next few days are important, and suggesting there is more upside coming, and more positive news surrounding the fiscal cliff news.

Sunday, 30 December 2012

My VIP members are normally the ones who get these updates. That is why you should join.

However, there are many readers who have emailed me recently, saying the market is about to crash and why we are not BEARISH.

The simple fact is the market breadth and leading patterns are not bearish.

Here is what other analysts out there are not telling you when looking at the S&P 500 chart.

1) Funds are now closed down for the year, and not back till next year. This means the smart money is out of the market. 2) The low volume on the market is just speculators and retail traders. 3) The movements in the market right now are typical holiday reversals, and you should not be trading when there is thin volume. We tell our VIP members this. 4) The moment in the last week or so, is not even worth looking at in my opinion as the smart money is not trading it, and this should not even be considered as it can throw of your trading and or analysis. 5) Our predictions have been spot on, and taking profits is mandatory in any market. If you did this, you would be doing very well. Always take profits.6) Trading at or around XMAS time is risky, and that is why I took time to visit friends and take a break from the market altogether. It has been a fantastic year. 2013 is setting up to be a wild and prosperous one also.

spx update

Anyway, no matter what, these are some important points you must remember when trading in december or close to years end.

Friday, 28 December 2012

As with the previous post => FISCAL CLIFF PANICwe stated that the last few days have been classic holiday reversals, and EXTREMELY LOW volume

Have a look at the nasdaq daily chart.

As you can see we have sold off since the start of the holidays. We sold off on very thin volume, meaning right now the smart money is gone from the market.

Also the stochastics are confirming that we are now very oversold on the market and a bounce is due soon.

It seems we are still in holiday reversal time period and with the fiscal cliff talks that is also putting added pressure on the markets. The breadth and other market indicators are skeptical that these moves will hold for long, and there is a considerable sized bounce coming very soon.

Charts are just saying this is a dip before a larger move higher. If you are a bear, do not fall in love with the downside, doing that in holiday reveral time periods can sometimes be very dangerous.

Enjoy you weekend and we will come back next week and monitor things closely.

1) We are still not out of holiday reversal time, the smart money is out of the market. These guys are hiding with their mistresses in the hamptons and will be back in a few days. 2) The last week we have gone down a bit, but it has been on very low volume. So I am skeptical.

Have a look at the fiscal cliff panic headlines they are writing all over CNBC. LOL.

fiscal cliff panic

No matter what they keeps saying or doing in the media, the smart money is not back in the market right now. The indicators and charts are still saying this move is not the true move.

The breadth and indicators have still not been thrown off and now have good room to move now. As said, the bears might be happy, but the charts with only low volume on this move down are saying do not fall in love with the downside.

If we take a look at the the sentiment trader market breadth indicators, we can see that the news is already coming out in the charts.

While bears keep saying the market is about to crash, NO, this was just a dip on the market. Nothing more than a holiday reversal if you have been reading our updates.

We have been telling our members to NOT FALL IN LOVE WITH THE DOWNSIDE. The reason is because summation and breadth still have nice room to move on the upside. Lots of room.

Nothing has changed on summation, and it clearly is still in BUY MODE or BUY DIPS mode. That is the smartest thing to do right now. Although the summation is not as strong as it was back in NOVEMBER it still remains on a BUY stance, and we should see higher prices soon on the S&P.

summation

The market breadth is now sitting on 67 and has now given us nice room to move to the upside, and we suspect the market is really ready to rally ONE LAST TIME up into early 2013 and not only surprise the bears but trick them as well.

We will not be overbought until we reach the 85 - 90 level. So we suspect a nice rally is going to come in the next few weeks sometime and there is also a nice rally in gold and miners setting up also.

We have been giving many warning shots that traders should still be buying dips, and not going short on the fiscal cliff news, or listening to analysts who keep saying the market is going to crash this week. We are not saying that wont happen, but the charts are telling us that is a low probability.

Right now the market breadth and leading indicators are saying the opposite and so as astute traders we must listen to the charts, and buy dips, and forget the fluff and so called analysts that do not use charts.

bullish swing day
looks like we have a bullish swing day set up if you have a look at the S&P chart below.

These normally preceed strength and upwards movements. So there is some up coming, because the bulls really came back by the close.

Having a look at the tick data, as we stated, there was warning of a bounce coming. Now with no more downside room to move on the tick we have double confirmation that a rally is about to start very soon.

We have a double confirmation that the market is getting ready for another nice UPWARDS run soon. Even though a dip came, we are still saying this market was a BUY THE DIP scenario. We still feel that 1490 - 1500 is going to come for S&P 500 very soon, and wipe the smile off the bears faces. WHAT IF YOU KNEW WHICH WAY THE MARKET WAS ABOUT TO MOVE BEFORE IT HAPPENED?CLICK HERE To Join Our VIP ELITE GROUP -- FREE 10 Day Trial Offer Today!

bear flag - bear flag on bonds
It looks like bonds is showing its true color here. As you can see there is a bearish flag forming on bonds. Once the 147 level is broken, there is real trouble coming, and that will of course cause a rally in the S&P 500 and we should see some sort of rally, as we have been saying.

Bears are probably not going to like what they see in the next few weeks. The reason is the the momentum was up in DECEMBER, and we saw a holiday reversal to the downside. We are now starting to come back into the time period where holiday re-reversals start to occur, which means back to the original trend, which is UP!

A nice bear flag on bonds here at the moment, and we are getting plenty of warning the S&P 500 bulls are not too far away.

Wednesday, 26 December 2012

If you have not noticed, we have a clear indication of holiday reversals happening since the BS end of the world mini crash last week.

The movements you have seen from then are called holiday reversals, and most likely to reverse back when we come back from the holidays in a few days time.

The bears right now will be rejoicing, but as we have said this is just thin trading on the market, where by not many participants are watching and trading.

Our stance still remains the same. The bears have not done too much damage at all. And looking at the hourly chart, it is oversold, and telling us not to get to excited on the bearish side, as there will be some sort of a bounce coming soon.

If you have a look at the hourly chart we are very oversold. It is telling us that a bounce, or to expect a bounce soon, and again I keep using the phrase. DO NOT FALL IN LOVE WITH THE DOWNSIDE. The breadth charts and hourly charts are confirming this.

We are in thin holiday trading. It is best to not take this action into account as the smart money is totally gone from the markets, and will not return until the new year.

Friday, 21 December 2012

Even though we saw a very larger mini flash crash on the market in globex the market recovered quite well.

Take a look at the NYSE McClellan indicator. It hit new highs this week and also pointing in a north direction at the weeks end. The bottom of this chart you will notice that summation is still BULLISH at this stage, which is a buy the dip scenario.

NYSE Chart

Take a look at the 60 minute chart. Even with that big sell off in globex the S&P went down right to very nicely intersected trend lines, and a nice rising support. The stochastics is confirming after this happend, we went into oversold mode, and soon after the market tried to bounce a bit. We are remaining in this channel for now, and we will wait to see if we can hold in this channel next week.

SPX 60 minute chart

Even with the mini flash crash you can see how this dip was bought back quite extensively. We smelt bullshit from as we slip slided down, as it was the end of the world date, and this move did not feel right at all. And as you can see, we went down to the 1390 level, investors starting panicking and then it was bought up back in literally minutes.

Such a movement makes us skeptical, especially in opex, and would not be surprised to see holiday reversals (more up coming on low volume) to play out starting some time next week.

Thursday, 20 December 2012

Mini Apocalypse 2012 flash crash in the ES
You gotta hand it to these guys, they run the S&P down on small volume, very small volume on the announcement that House vote on Speaker John Boehner's proposed Plan B will be delayed until after Christmas! Bullishit does not even begin to explain what this is.

Lets go to the charts.

First the S&P 500 daily charts. It dropped 50 points. But the trend remains up for now.

Have a look at the mini flash crash created in globex. The S&P went down 50 pts in just a matter of moments on small volume. It really smells of Bullshit. So be careful.

Take this into account.

1) This happens before opex FRIDAY!

2) This happens on the end of the world DATE! HAHA LOL. :-)

3) This happens at the end of the week right before xmas.

If it smells like BS......it looks like BS......well then it probably is. Manipulation at its finest.

I know this going to be hard to believe, but I still think 1500 is coming soon on the SPX. I know with this FLASH CRASH type action people will be laughing at a statement like this, however I will stick to my guns for now.

The market is still not open, so we will wait and see what friday brings! Are they just trapping traders shorts before blasting us up higher. Well I guess we will wait and see.

daily gold chart
If we have a look at the daily gold chart below we can see that there has been quite a nice selloff with gold over the last several weeks. Sometimes this is seasonal. However since Oct we sold off from 1800 all the way down to 1648.

This has now gone below the normal 50% retracement of the movement show on the daily gold chart below.

daily gold chart

Having a look at the gold index chart, we can see, there has been a rather large sell off, but we are very oversold, but there is no clear buy signal just yet on the weekly. So this is telling us to wait and to be patient. There were alot of traders who got into gold to early and now are regretting that move. There is a time to be aggressive and a time to be patient, right now is the time to just sit and wait. Patience is needed, because the next buying opportunity in gold might be a very very good one. :-)

Well we only have one days trade left before OPEX week is over. If you are not aware 73% of the time, OPEX week is usually bullish or the market closes on average GREEN! So there is no surprises if we get a little more up.

Wednesday, 19 December 2012

Here lies a fiscal cliff warning to the bears out there. Because right now there is alot of bearishness and these bears are celebrating the start of a market crash, due to the fiscal cliff deal that does not seem to be working out. Bears, before you go celebrating you need to be reminded of 7 things.

Fiscal Cliff Warning - 7 Things You Should Remember!

1) Below is a chart of the dow jones market breadth. As you can see we have rallied up since the middle of NOVEMBER! But there is still room to move up into the SELL ZONE area shown.

2) NEWS always seems to come out in the charts first, as I tell all my VIP subscribers.

The Nasdaq daily chart below is telling us, there will be some sort of good news coming out about the fiscal cliff. While everyone out there says we are going over the cliff, I do not pre-empt the market, I look and follow charts to the best of my ability. And the daily Nasdaq chart is telling us do not be super bearish here, that would be very dangerous.

3) Major news such as the fiscal cliff causes double negatives. In which govt will release bad news first, which normally gets factored into the market by traders, and the opposite will happen.

4) The word "FISCAL CLIFF" is not a word, it has now become a brand, and this will be part of the new tune they will sing to buy up more debt, and to make the average household suffer. It has nothing to do with the market. Infact it is totally dislocated away from the global markets all together.

5) There is a clear bearish tone right now. As sentiment trader always states, to make money on the market you should always oppose what the regular retails traders think and learn to become contrarians to them.

6) The market is so rigged, as I have participated at a professional level before and I know what goes on behind closed door. It is the reason I sit here talking to you on my blog. I know how evil the financial world is. I wanted to get out years ago, so I did. These professional traders know a billion times more than you, and already know what the outcome is to this fiscal cliff saga will be. They are just setting you up to be on the wrong side! I am not saying the bears are on the wrong side, but they know how to screw over the average trader and hide it, until the major news itself comes out. That is exactly what is happening right now. This is not just a feeling, this is what happens.

7) This is the most important! Never trade on news alone, or pre-emt the news. I have literally known dozens of traders who paid for high subscription services and thought they knew everything about news and were going to make a killing from getting news before everyone else. This does not work!

You need to realise, more traders accounts will get culled from this fiscal cliff news, because they are reading all the bearish signs, and going short the market, way before anything has happened. This is just moonlighting and can do alot of damage to your account. As always, read the charts, let them speak to you and react accordingly. Do not trade what you THINK, trade what you see and what the charts are telling you. News is not as important as PRICE AND PATTERNS.

Having a look at the weekly Nasdaq Bullish Percent We can see that no matter what analysts or gurus out there are saying, or fiscal cliff news, we are more than likely to see higher prices coming in the next few weeks. We are at 52 and there is room to move to about the 60 area before becoming overbought.

Nasdaq Bullish Index

Nasdaq daily (or the leader of the market) is still forming the right side of the inverted head and shoulders. Sometimes jostling on the market takes place when this occurs, and we could experience more 'Choppiness' however, this should resolve soon. There is a clear case here, that the bulls are still winning the battle. Nothing much has changed, and we expect higher prices soon.

The put call ratio on the market hit extremes lately, and that means the indicies might experience a bit of a pullback to equal things out.

We have had quite an extensive rally the last few days, and the market taking a break is still not bearish, it is merely just taking a break in an uptrend (which is normal). We still remain positive for the market at the moment, nothing much has really changed.

Tuesday, 18 December 2012

Taking a look at the EURO chart below we seem to have a inverted head and shoulders, and also another inverted head and shoulders within the right shoulder. So short term bullish and possibly longer term also.

With these technical sticking out, there is high probability we possibly see 1.36 coming in the EURO soon.

The indicies are already off to the races, and its looks like heading to our sentiment targets.

Take a look at the weekly energy sector. This is still lagging while indicies is strong.

This is just the excuse the indicies need to go even higher in the coming weeks. Take a look at the energy sector below. This is extremely oversold, and is highly likely a rally comes very soon.

daily crude chart

With crude being a likely candidate for energy. The weekly crude chart is quite oversold, and looking ripe for a nice rally soon also. Crude right now is at $88 a barrel. But it is highly likely with indicies crude will rally up in the coming weeks to a target of about $99 - $100 a barrel if you look at the chart below. That is highly likely anyway. :-)

daily crude chart

With the energy sector so oversold and crude on the weekly chart also.

Look at these two charts, this trade should work out quite well in the coming weeks, as indicies are likely to climb also, and a rally in energy should help lift the indicies to our targets.

After Mondays trade, we had a very nice green day, but still again, I ask you to look at the weekly chart. There is nothing in here saying the market is about to crash!!!! Lots of moron newsletter writers are talking about crashes, fiscal cliffs, death crosses, what we do is actually look and study the charts properly, that is why we have been able to call the market very accurately this year! :-)

Have a look at the weekly chart. We are at 1430 on the SPX, and I feel that 1470 will be coming sooner rather than later. (Possibly even higher)

We also have divergences in the MACD histogram, and that is giving the bulls the edge they need. The Stochastics is also pointing to higher in the coming weeks.

SPX Weekly Chart

We have been having a lot of fun watching pundits and so called analysts say the market will CRASH and CRUMBLE, when the summation is saying that is not very likely. That is very dangerous.

Again since the 15th of November WITH THIS POST HERE, and also HERE we were giving lots of warning of a rally coming. The rally did come :-) and we were almost spot on. We still remain long, because the summation is still on a buy and looking strong, we feel this rally is not finished, and as above we are targeting 1470 in the coming weeks.

summation chart

Let us enjoy this rally and then once we get to the 1470 - 1480 level, re-evaluate things and what the market is telling us.

Saturday, 15 December 2012

Taking a quick look at the market on the weekend, the weekly USD chart is not looking very strong at all. And that will soon give some buoyancy to the S&P 500 down the track. The proof is in the pudding and this chart is looking sickly at best.

Taking a closer look, the Weekly USD chart has almost formed a bearish head and shoulders pattern, and if it passes through the 78 level, there is likely more trouble to come for USD, and will bring back strong buying to the stock and global markets. So watch that level closely.

The RHNYA or NYSE breadth indicator has as MACD crossover, and it is signaling the bears might have a bit of fun on the downside. But still The breadth remains strong, and proves that there is still smart money buying around the traps. It is just not as strong as it was a in the middle of NOVEMBER.

We still believe 1500 could be coming on the S&P 500, as we have predicted in thisPOST HERE and as said there are no guarantees with the market or with our analysis, but our VIP members have had a great year, and we have had many market predictions play out perfectly. Hopefully this will be another to add to our tally. :-)

Thursday, 13 December 2012

Today is the 14th of December which means Christmas 2012 will be here in 11 days. Wow! This year has really gone FAST hasn't it.

Some of my subscribers were asking for a bigger chart of the S&P chart and so I have blown up my previous chart below.

I am going out on a limb here, but I think it is possible we will see 1500 soon on the market. Yes! you did read that right! I said 1500 for many obvious reasons if you look back at our previews posts!

We warned a drop could be coming first, and that is what has happened over the last few days. This smaller drop could continue, be we feel it is just a smaller blip move before a larger upward thrust is coming later and into early 2013.

If we having a look at the SPXA50 market breadth chart you have can notice we have rallied quite nicely off the BUY ZONE in november. This rally was quite violent and quick and after such a move we might like to cool down and sell off a bit. (see above chart)

We are only just past half way, and again that is confirmation that if the market takes a short term break, there is plenty more room on the upside. And that is also another confirmation that 1500 could be coming on the S&P 500 soon.

1) In this bernanke economy the only way you are going to survive is do what those running the show are doing. It take no more than 5 minutes and punching a few things into google. Do you really think those that are creating the bernanke economy are in this game to hide there actions and idea away from you. NO! They have an agenda and even like to brag about it, and what they are doing to help you. Most do not pick up on this, but as said, it take just a few minutes in google. Seek and ye shall find!

2) In this bernanke economy the mission is to first create the solution, then create the problem. Yes this bernanke economy does infact operate alot differently than anyone can imagine. Do you think the 2008 market crash, the financial crisis and the financial crisis 2.0 was an accident.

Of course it wasn't!!!!

They have a solution for everything. The reason is because they had the solution first. Then they created the problem for us, and pretended to fail. See how that works. A sneaky tactic, that goes under the radar and no one suspects it. This is the first time you have thought of bernanke economy like this haven't you? Do not be ashamed, because now you have been woken up and there is a fair chance after reading this you will look at the world in a different way and even read the news like you have never read it before.

3) In this bernanke economy there is no witch hunt for those that do the wrong thing. Especially if you are a congressman, doing the wrong thing means a pay increase, a cigar in mouth and a pat on the back.

Things are not as complex as it seems in this crazy bernanke economy.

4) In this bernanke economy the hidden secrets in this world are not so hidden. This year the secrets that the elite and the government thought would never be released came out into the open and shocked alot of people. But is this bernanke economy there is a rule that states, secrets will be secrets and have a half life. They do not expire, they are created only to be exposed one day, at the right time. When 2013 comes around do not be shocked when you hear how low and despicable those around you are. Do not be enraged when you hear of more lies, cover ups and the truth being exposed. Just realise that these secrets expired and the it was the right time for these to be spread out in the open for all of us to hear.

The Pandora's box to many more hidden secrets has only just been slightly open. Wait to you see what comes out in the next 12 - 24 months when the lid is ripped off and all is exposed.

5) In this bernanke economy we blame god for the bad things we see around us. A terrorist blows himself up and takes 30 others innocent souls with him. We blame god! But we do not realize the terrorists are brainwashed, and funded by the biggest and wealthiest people in our nation.

All god can do in this bernanke economy is look down and 'shake his head'. He mumbles to himself. What have I done? What have I created? He curses those that crave for his power and abuse it.

6) In this bernanke economy Counterfeiting is not a crime. The government and banksters think they can live under a different set of rules. There is an act of Congress that allows the Fed to get away with it.

What if this happened back 400 years ago. A banker from an earlier era would have only done it in the dark of night. In the time of Edward II a banker who clipped his coins would have his testicles cut off. In the nineteenth century one who printed up too many notes was soon disgraced and bankrupt. The best of them took their own lives in shame. But in this bernanke economy Ben Bernanke is treated like an honest man.

7) In this bernanke economy there are people waking up to the fraud, the lies, the misconceptions that we have had to deal with day to day. You might have chosen to wake up on your own, or it happened by accident. But you must realize the lies of the government, the projections put on us by the mass media, who are run and owned by some of the wealthiest eliteists on this planet. They hate you for waking up, however with all the wealth, power and invulnerability they think they have, this is the one thing that scares them. They do not want to admit it, but more and more people are waking up to their stage play.

Please pass this on, and wake up those around you who are still in their slumber. Do not blame them, or laugh at them, educate them and help them wake up too. Help plant the seed. The sooner the better!

If we look at the spx weekly chart it is obvious that we are still in a large bearish wedge. However, the spx weekly chart is giving strong indication that since the end of 2011 we have been in a nice solid uptrend, and we do not expect anything to change right now.

Even if we do get some kind of dip on the market here, (which is likely) the spx weekly chart along with summation (see below) is hinting that 1500 is coming on the market. YES! 1500! even though there are many bears out there and people calling for a crash, we feel that the spx weekly chart is saying to expect 1500 very soon!

The spx weekly chart is also saying, do not expect 1500 in 2012, we might have to wait till next year. 2013 for that to eventuate. Many traders are watching the fiscal cliff news, and trading that news. We are saying remain calm and watch the daily charts and spx weekly chart for clues. Hopefully the charts like this one, spx weekly chart are screaming loudly at what COULD happen in the next several weeks.

spx weekly chart

The spx weekly chart is definatly looking strong, but we also have the sentiment trader top leading market breadth chart - SUMMATION. As you can see below, summation is still on a BUY or BUY DIPS stance, and has been since the middle of NOVEMBER.

spx weekly chart - Summation

The spx weekly chart is telling us alot, but more importantly, no matter what happens in the next few weeks, or what happens regarding the fiscal cliff deal, the spx weekly chart is telling us not to fall in love with the downside.

Wednesday, 12 December 2012

gold predictions 2013
We have had some very accurate calls on gold in the past. This week I had several VIP subscribers beg and ask to post a chart and give hints as to what we think is happening in gold and to give our gold predictions 2013

gold predictions 2013 - if you look at the chart below you can see that on the WEEKLYchart there are many people who are very very bearish on gold at the moment. The stochastics are now at extreme oversold levels. That means there are far to many bears at the moment still coming out of the woodwork.

Right now we want to be contrarians to the bears, or these bearish positions as things are oversold. All we need is for stocastics to cross and start heading up on the weekly chart below, and that would be a good signal to get long and make some NICE PROFITS, especially at the start of 2013. That is highly likely looking at the chart below.

We do not have the green light yet!, but looking at the chart below it is not too far away. :-)

gold predictions 2013

This chart and analysis would closely make our gold predictions 2013 for the next few months. One must be patient I think with gold, however this is setting up very nicely and we will continue to monitor it over the next several weeks.

Well since the middle of November the market has really done well. Our guess is that the market needs to take a breather after a 90 pt or so rally. It has been a good one, and the bears really felt pain all the way up!!! :-)

Obviously we are getting close to Xmas, and nothing has changed. It is important to realize that nothing goes up in a straight line, which is key.

I know there are hundreds of newsletters and other blog saying we really crash and crumble from here, and even go below the 1340 level, but sentiment is saying while that could happen, its a very low probability right now!!!! Time will tell.

Below is the chart of the S&P and what we think may happen leading into xmas. There are no guarantees but studying the market sentiment favors a little dip on the S&P first, and then we resume the extensive rally we have been seeing over the last several weeks.

downside to boot

Maybe it is time for the market to take a little rest. Even if we do see that, my guess is that it is just going to set up for more up in to early 2013, especially with the breadth charts the way they are. We feel there is more pain coming for the bears, but as said the market may want to take a little rest first.

It is possible we get some down here, after a big run up, but I have 7 words for you. DON'T FALL IN LOVE WITH THE DOWNSIDE!