Thursday, January 19, 2017

Is Kabardino-Balkaria on the Road to Disintegration?

Paul Goble

Staunton, January 19 -- One of the most cynical methods the Soviet government
employed to divide and rule non-Russian nations was the establishment of
republics with two titular nationalities because such arrangements guaranteed
that the two were more likely to view the other as a problem and threat than to
see Moscow as responsible.

At
the end of Soviet times, there were three such republics, Chechen-Ingushetia,
Kabardino-Balkaria, and Karachayevo-Cherkessia. The first broke up at that
time, but the other two have survived because they are part of a larger concern
that still animates Moscow’s policies in the region: keeping Circassian nations
from coming together and forming a single republic.

Were
either of those republics to fall apart, it would almost certainly trigger a
broader reordering of the borders in the region as Circassians – including the
Adygey, the Kabardins, and the Cherkess – would certainly view a separate Kabardin
or Cherkess republic as the nucleus of a future state as well as boosting
Turkey’s influence there at Moscow’s expense.

And
because of those likelihoods, at least some in Moscow are quite willing to play
up fears of that happening to keep the Turkic Balkars and Karachays in line and
to continue its campaign to divide the Circassian national movement, a campaign
that shows no sign of ending especially because the Circassians are gaining
more support abroad.

But
if Moscow found it relatively easy to maintain bi-national republics in Soviet
times – it could appoint officials to reflect the ethnic “balance” it wanted to
ensure by using quotas – the task of the enter now is complicated by the fact
that in winner-take-all elections, the local majority will win more than its
share of seats and positions, freezing out the other.

These
difficulties have come to a head now in Kabardino-Balkaria where just over half
of the republic’s population consists of Circassian Kabardins while only 11
percent is made up by Turkic Balkars, as a result of local tensions between the
two groups and Moscow’s often clumsy and heavy-handed policies.

Now,
as Idnal Kardnov points out on the Caucasus Times portal, the situation appears
to be coming to a boil, with the Balkar minority making demands that the
majority Kabardins are not prepared to meet. Indeed, the latter have rejected
these demands with strikingly harsh language in ways that point to conflicts
ahead (caucasustimes.com/article.asp?id=21533).

Earlier
this month, the Council of Balkar Elders adopted a resolution calling on the
leadership of Kabardino-Balkaria to give the Turkic Balkars a status in
positions in the government and media time equal to that of the Kabardins and
Russians. Otherwise, the council said it would be compelled to seek the
formation of a separate Balkar Republic within Russia (windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2017/01/debate-on-planned-russian-nation-law.htm).

This
is not the first such demand by the Council of Balkar Elders, but it is the
first to prompt the Kabardins not only to demand that the Balkar leaders be
investigated for “separatism” but also to call for two legal steps that appear
likely to make the situation more tense and even to lay the foundation for a separate
Circassian state.

On
the one hand, the leading Kabardin organizations of KBR called for the adoption
of a new republic law “on ethnic territories,” which in the words of Kardnov
would clearly define “the immemorial territories” of the “subject-forming”
peoples of the republic and thus determine the organization of the existing
republic.

But
by drawing such lines on the map, the Circassian Kabardins are in effect
calling for the definition of the “immemorial” Circassian lands, something that
could lead not only to the breakup of the KBR but to demands from Circassians
in other groups for a similar approach and thus lead to the restoration of a
Greater Circassia.

And
on the other hand, the Kabardin organizations declared that they would respect
a decision by an all-Balkar congress to move for self-determination. Indeed,
their letter to republic leaders said that “we will great the decision of the
congress of the Balkar people” to have their own territory and republic.

Of
course, if the Kabardins are prepared to recognize the right of the Balkars for
self-determination up to and including separation from the KBR, they will
almost certainly will now demand that the Balkars recognize their right to self-determination. To
the extent that happens, the binational KBR republic will be at risk along with
Moscow’s control of the North Caucasus.