Increasing attempts are made to understand the factors responsible for both the demographic and genetic depletion in amphibian populations. Landscape genetics aims at a spatially explicit correlation of genetic population parameters to landscape features. Using data from the endangered fire-bellied toad Bombina bombina in Brandenburg (Northeastern Germany), we performed an environmental niche factor analysis (ENFA), relating demographic (abundance) and genetic (diversity at 17 microsatellite loci and partial sequences of the mitochondrial control region in 434 individuals from 16 populations) parameters to ecological and anthropogenic variables such as temperature, precipitation, soil wetness, water runoff, vegetation density, and road/traffic impact. We found significant correlations between road disturbance and observed heterozygosity and between soil wetness and mitochondrial diversity. As the influences of the environmental variables can differ between different indicators for genetic diversity, population size and abundance data, our ENFA-based landscape genetics approach allows us to put various aspects of long- versus short term effective population size and genetic connectivity into an ecological and spatially explicit context, enabling potentially even forecast assessment under future environmental scenarios.

In this study, we report the genetic population structure of the Fire-bellied toad Bombina bombina in Brandenburg (East Germany) in the context of conservation. We analysed 298 samples originating from 11 populations in Brandenburg using mitochondrial control region sequences and six polymorphic microsatellite loci. For comparison, we included one population each from Poland and Ukraine into our analysis. Within Brandenburg, we detected a moderate variability in the mitochondrial control region (19 different haplotypes) and at microsatellite loci (9-12 alleles per locus). These polymorphisms revealed a clear population structure among toads in Brandenburg, despite a relatively high overall population density and the moderate size of single populations (100-2000 individuals). The overall genetic population structure is consistent with a postglacial colonization from South East-Europe and a subsequent population expansion. Based on genetic connectivity, we infer Management Units (MUs) as targets for conservation. Our genetic survey identified MUs, within which human infrastructure is currently preventing any genetic exchange. We also detect an unintentional translocation from South East to North West Brandenburg, presumably in the course of fish stocking activities. Provided suitable conservation measures are taken, Brandenburg should continue to harbor large populations of this critically endangered species.

Environmental change is likely to have a strong impact on biodiversity, and many species may shift their distribution in response. In this study, we aimed at projecting the availability of suitable habitat for an endangered amphibian species, the Fire-bellied toad Bombina bombina, in Brandenburg (north-eastern Germany). We modelled a potential habitat distribution map based on (1) a database with 10,581 presence records for Bombina from the years 1990 to 2009, (2) current estimates for ecogeographical variables (EGVs) and (3) the future projection of these EGVs according to the statistical regional model, respectively, the soil and water integrated model, applying the maximum entropy approach (Maxent). By comparing current and potential future distributions, we evaluated the projected change in distribution of suitable habitats and identified the environmental variables most associated with habitat suitability that turned out to be climatic variables related to the hydrological cycle. Under the applied scenario, our results indicate increasing habitat suitability in many areas and an extended range of suitable habitats. However, even if the environmental conditions in Brandenburg may change as predicted, it is questionable whether the Fire-bellied toad will truly benefit, as dispersal abilities of amphibian species are limited and strongly influenced by anthropogenic disturbances, that is, intensive agriculture, habitat destruction and fragmentation. Furthermore, agronomic pressure is likely to increase on productive areas with fertile soils and high water retention capacities, indeed those areas suitable for B. bombina. All these changes may affect temporary pond hydrology as well as the reproductive success and breeding phenology of toads.