Business Reporter

Companies have been cutting jobs in the past weeks. Photo: Tamara Voninski

The jobless rate rose in December as companies unexpectedly cut staff, narrowing the odds of another interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank.

The number of people employed fell by 5500 after a revised 17,100 gain in November, while the unemplyment rate rose to 5.4 per cent from an upwardly revised 5.3 per cent, the Bureau of Statistics said today.

A core CPI below 0.5 per cent and I think the RBA will cut in February.

Matthew Johnson, UBS

Economists had tipped a jobless rate of 5.4 per cent, but had expected the economy to add another 4000 jobs for the month.

The numbers ... employed persons and the unemployment rate.

Full-time employment decreased by 13,800 people to 8.1 million. Part-time employment lifted by 8300 people to 3.4 million, driven by an increase in male part-time workers. There was a total of 656,400 unemployed people in December, an increase of 16,600 people.

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The participation rate - the percentage of people either in work or looking for work - remained steady at 65.1 per cent.

Rate cut tipped - but not in February

The dollar fell about a quarter of a cent to $US1.0532 on the news as expectations rose of another rate cut by the Reserve Bank.

The market is pricing in at least one more easing in interest rates following the Reserve Bank's cut to a record-matching low of 3 per cent back in December.

Interbank futures show a one-in-three chance of a move at the RBA's next policy meeting on February 5, though swap rates imply an eventual move to 2.5 per cent this year.

But ANZ senior economist Riki Polygenis said while employment numbers had fallen more than expected, the Reserve Bank would need more evidence of a weakening economy before cutting interest rates again in February.

"In general, we have been expecting the labour market to slow given relative softness in labour-intensive areas of the economy," Ms Polygenis said. "So we do this that this labour market report is consistent with our view that further monetary policy support is needed from the RBA over 2013 to ensure a rebalancing of growth towards non-mining areas of the economy.

"[But] although employment did fall more than expected, it would not have been a large surprise to the RBA, given the sharp falls that we've seen in job advertisements in recent months."

However, UBS economist Matthew Johnson said a February rate cut was a possibility if inflation data, due next week, was benign.

''A core CPI (consumer price index) below 0.5 per cent and I think the RBA will cut in February.''

More jobs in NSW, fewer in Qld

Across the states, the December jobs data was mixed. In Victoria, 14,000 jobs were added as participation rate rose to 65.2 per cent while the unemployment rate inched higher to 5.6 per cent.

In NSW, 8000 jobs were added as the unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage point to 5.1 per cent. The participation rate lifted slightly to 63.3 per cent.

Mr Workman said there was still very strong growth in WA in relation to public sector infrastructure spending.

The oil and gas sector, especially when it comes to LNG projects, was still growing, he added.

"In WA and Queensland, we are still well off the peak in their employment numbers," he said.

Companies cutting staff

NAB economist David de Garis called the jobs data ''a reality check''.

''Most of the leading indicators of labor demand suggest the market is softening and there's been corporate anecdotes backing that up,'' Mr de Garis said.

Weaker commodity prices, a sluggish domestic economy and an elevated currency have prompted companies to put off projects and cut jobs.

More than 1000 jobs were axed in the past week alone. Yesterday, building products maker Boral said it would cut 700 office jobs, while BlueScope Steel outlined plans to sack 170 workers as part of a reconfiguration of its Hastings plant in Victoria.

Vodafone also said yesterday that it was set to close or rebrand Crazy John's chain of mobile phone stores by February 20, putting at risk about 300 jobs across Australia.

On Monday, economic data released by ANZ showed job advertisements dropping by 3.8 per cent in November, a fall for the 10th-straight month.

More seekers than jobs

Commonwealth Bank senior economist Michael Workman said the fall in employment was expected, as the number of people entering the jobs market exceeding the number of positions created.

"Over the past year, jobs were up about 148,000, on average of about 12,000 a month, and that's just not enough to meet the next entrants to the jobs market, which are about 15,000 to 16,000 [people] a month," Mr Workman said.

But the level of unemployment would have been anticipated by the Reserve Bank, and was what sparked the current easing cycle.

"We don't think these are the kinds of numbers that would induce a rate cut from the RBA soon," Mr Workman said.

"We believe that they've been indicating for six to nine months while they cut rates that these were the kinds of outcomes they were expecting on the jobs market. So we've ended up with a 3 per cent cash rate because of the expectation that this was going to happen."

243 comments

Well done Can't Do Campbell . . . rather than getting the state "back on track", you're driving Queensland straight into a big, black hole . . . hopefully you'll follow sooner rather than later.

Commenter

Bubble Girl

Location

Brisbane

Date and time

January 17, 2013, 11:57AM

Sounds like QLD has a localised version of blame Abbott for everything. Is "Can't do Campbell" responsible for employment across the whole country is he?

Commenter

WotTha?????

Location

Date and time

January 17, 2013, 12:15PM

Bubble Girl you do realise this is nationwide - South Australia had the worst figures. Back to your bubble, you've missed the importance or relevance of these figures totally.

Commenter

Tired Camel

Location

Date and time

January 17, 2013, 12:22PM

Where do you think the money to pay public sector employees comes from? The tax payers. If the public sector employees are retrenched, the tax payers get to keep more of their money and they will then spend it on other things. Which creates more jobs in those sectors. The perception of Newman destroying jobs is false because you can see the the people he has laid off. What you don't see are the people who will get hired down the line in private sector. At present the savings will be used to balance the budget, then to pay off the debt and then tax payers will get to keep their taxes. If government could resolve the unemployment problem by hiring more people then that would be easiest fix. Unfortuntaly its not that simple.

Commenter

Ozilibertarian

Location

Sydney

Date and time

January 17, 2013, 12:52PM

Mmm I think he is removing you from the black hole Anna bligh has put all of you in. Thanks to him life is better down there. ALP is destroying everywhere else.

Commenter

omnisapian

Location

Melbourne

Date and time

January 17, 2013, 12:57PM

Bubble girl got it right. If you read the whole article it refers to all the states individually as well as the unemployment rate as a whole.Queensland - 22,900 jobs cut, unemployment rate up 0.1 per cent to 6.2 per cent, participation rate drops to 66 per cent as opposed to NSW where it states for NSW, 8000 jobs were added as the unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage point to 5.1 per cent. The participation rate lifted slightly to 63.3 per cent.

Commenter

Ms T. Next-Parke-Laine

Location

Swindon

Date and time

January 17, 2013, 1:12PM

Campbell Newman is to blame for QLDs unemployment numbers as he was personally responsible for retrenching 14,000 workers. It must be remembered that not all of those workers have lost their jobs yet and the new buck passing health boards are still firing people and will be for the next 5 or 6 months. It's good to see the NewMan has stopped short in taking his engineering aim at more workers, although I see it as only a temproary reprieve as the federal election is coming up this year and the other NO man Abbott is getting a little concerned about losing another unloseable election.so if only 10,000 of the 14,000 have so far been retrenched then the other 12,900 are from businesses. QLD now has the second highest unemployment rate at 6.2 percent, or almost 1 percent above the average. Pretty average management from the new leadership if you ask me.

Ozlibertarian - Unfortuntaly its not that simple. If the public service is slashed, taxpayers don't get to keep more of their money unless the government also implements tax cuts. If a government is concerned about budgets and is slashing jobs, a tax cut is last thing on their minds. Also, cuts to the public sector might look appealing to many voters like yourself, but that is primarily what they are designed to do... ie win votes. In most cases the work still needs to be done, only it is outsourced to the private sector. The private sector do not always do the job cheaper, nor better, and governments pay at least the same if not more for often sub-standard work to be done. So, we pay the same tax and get less services for it, but we do get lots of invoices for useless reports written by private consultants.

Commenter

Wyn

Location

Earth

Date and time

January 17, 2013, 1:27PM

Inside knowledge is brace yourselves Victoria, Big Ted is about to slash lots more soon"