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Ф ќ " р р D
INSURANCE, CLIMATE CHANGE
AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Introduction
The American Insurance Association (AIA) believes that the vulnerability of the U.S. property-casualty insurance industry to climate change is sometimes overestimated. A more refined picture of potential risk emerges when information is presented on how the industry operates; the diversity of insurance products; its financial strength; and how it responds to weather-related risk.
We believe that the critical challenge facing the insurance industry with regard to weather-related exposure is the significant risk from hurricanes that has grown exponentially in recent decades due to rapid growth in population and development along vulnerable coastlines.
With or without climate change, there are a number of sustainable development concepts that help the environment and at the same time are compatible with sound insurance principals.
There are significant questions regarding climate change and possible scenariosthe complexity of the climate system and its numerous feedbacks, the role of clouds, and the ability of forests, agriculture and oceans to act as carbon sinks.
Hurricane Risk
For insurers, potential impact of climate warming on the frequency and intensity of hurricanes remains a key area of interest. No other weather event has the potential to deliver catastrophic losses that could endanger the solvency of a substantial number of insurers. The UN-IPCC reports have been inconclusive on hurricanes, indicating that there is little evidence that a general warming would result in an increase in the frequency and severity of hurricanes. Some research seems to indicate that warming could suppress hurricane development in the North Atlantic. For example, the El Nino climate phenomenon is a known suppressor of hurricane development and models indicate that climate warming could result in more frequent El Nino events. However, insurers and reinsurers do support and monitor ongoing research on hurricanes and climate change.
The most critical factor impacting hurricane damage potential does not relate to climate change, but rather the tremendous growth in population, homes, commercial development in the most hurricane-prone regions of the United States, especially Florida, the Carolinas and the Gulf Coast.
Profile of the P/C Industry: Diversity and Resilience
Damage from weather events is only one of many perils that are covered by different lines and products provided by the property-casualty insurance industry.
Only six out of over 25 property-casualty insurance product lines have moderate or significant exposure to weather losses. Together these six personal and commercial property-related lines represent approximately one-fifth of industry premiums. Remaining lines, accounting for 80.8% of the industrys premium base, have limited or no exposure to weather events. For the one-fifth share that does have a moderate or significant weather exposure, weather is only one of a number of covered perils that contribute to the premium base and stability of the line.
Flood insurance and crop insurance are federal programs in the U.S, underwritten for the most part by the federal government. The industry participates in the flood and crop insurance programs and earns revenues by assisting in administration through education and marketing programs, policy issuance, and claims adjustment. U.S. insurers generally are not financially exposed to flood and crop losses.
Auto insurance provides an example of a product with very minor exposure to climate change, but one that is also a major source of the property-casualty industrys financial strength and stability. Private passenger and commercial auto insurance account for nearly half (48.3%) of the U.S. non-life premium total.
Adaptation and Sustainability
A common assumption made by those contending that the insurance industry will be severely impacted by climate warming is that insurers will be unable to respond and adapt. Insurers constantly monitor risk and loss experience, and are accustomed to changing conditions. When conditions change, insurers have some ability to manage risk and adjust to the new trend though a number of tools including rating, underwriting, and loss mitigation, subject to regulatory constraints.
Sustainable development concepts can help with any needed adaptation and in many cases are compatible with sound insurance principals. Mitigation and sustainable development make sense in any climate. Insurers, homeowners, businesses and communities, are currently at risk from major natural disasters, even in years where overall weather patterns appear to be relatively benign. For example, Hurricane Andrew, the most expensive disaster the insurance industry has experienced, occurred in 1992 when hurricane frequency was relatively low and suppressed by a mild El Nino climate pattern.
As with automobile and highway safety, insurance companies are advocates for catastrophe mitigation. Implementation and enforcement of strong building codes, new building technologies to bring about better roofs, windows, and structural connections will make homes, businesses, and communities more resilient to natural disasters.
Land use planning is another technique gaining interest as a strategy for better assessing the costs and benefits of building in areas at high risk from natural hazards. Discouraging additional development in flood plains, beachfronts, earthquake faults, and areas subject to mudslides and wild fires is totally consistent with sustainable development and sound insurance principals. Any limited development that does occur in such areas should be built to more resilient standards than development in less hazardous areas.
Sustainable development and energy efficiency policies affecting risk and insurance should be fully examined to ensure that they do not create new hazards. Some examples that provide a match between risk reduction, insurance, and energy efficiency:
Energy savings and loss control: The U.S. Department of Energy and insurers have identified areas where energy efficiency improvements also reduce fire, explosion, liability, and winter storm hazards.
Public Transportation and Other Non-Driving Alternatives: Property-casualty insurers are generally supportive of increased investments and improvements in public transportation, and other initiatives that encourage less congestion including smart growth strategies, car pooling, and pedestrian and bicycle access. These strategies reduce energy usage and promote cleaner air. For auto insurance and highway safety, they reduce congestion in urban areas and stress on drivers that leads to increased accident rates, and provide increased options and mobility for higher risk teenaged and very elderly drivers.
Telecommuting is a sustainable development idea that ties in very nicely with our earlier agenda item on E-commerce. Increased telecommuting takes drivers off the road during the highest morning and afternoon rush hours in the most congested urban areas where accident rates and insurance costs are the highest. Telecommuting also reduces energy consumption and emissions.
Speed Limits Have Safety, Insurance, and Environmental Benefits: Experience during the 1970s and 1980s with lower national speed limits of showed that lower speeds not only save energy and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but also lower deaths and injuries on the highways.
Cautionary Note: Some well-intentioned proposals for climate change mitigation could have a negative impact on risk, safety, and the insurance process. Pay-at-the Pump or pay per mile auto insurance is an example of one climate change proposal that would undermine the basic risk-based insurance process and negatively impact vehicle and highway safety. Pay per mile does not adequately address more important risk factors in driving such as the age of the operator, driving record, vehicle type, where miles are driven (congested urban vs. rural), and other significant variables.
American Insurance Association
DLU11/28/2000
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