Gold Could Rally In November On Indian Buying

Gold has had a good week, and while it's too soon to call it a rally, things are looking up for the yellow metal as the Indian festival season begins.

Gold bugs had something to cheer about last Thursday, and it looks like the shouting could grow louder as the calendar flips to November.a

According to Business Insider, analysts ataBofA Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley are telling clients that gold is set to rally as the Indian festival season gets underway.

As the largest consumer of gold, mostly by citizens who hold gold in high esteem and are frequent purchasers of gold jewelry, especially around the time of festivals, India is watched closely for signs of physical gold demand.

"Indian festival season could provide a lift to gold," Morgan Stanley analyst Paretosh Misra wroteain a note to clients. "Traditionally, the Diwali festival (specifically, Dhanteras, the two days before Diwali) is the biggest gold buying period of the year in India. In the last 10 years, gold has risen an average 2.5% in the one month around Diwali. While government's new import restrictions and INR depreciation could adversely affect gold imports, buying should be supported by ~20% YoY decline in gold in Rupee terms."

On the other hand, Socit Gnrale analysts Jesper Dannesboe and Robin Bhar believe the rally could be limited, and set a $1,350 per ounce ceiling on the price.

"It is difficult to say exactly how much further the gold price can rally on the ongoing short- covering but we would be surprised to see the gold price much above the $1,350 level. The medium-term drivers of the gold price are, in our view, still firmly bearish," said the analysts, as per Business Insider.

While gold is down around 21 percent year to date, it does appear to have staged something of a mini-rally in recent days, starting with a $40 gain after the resolution of the US debt ceiling crisis.

Gold hit $1,323 last Thursday, after it became clear to bullion traders that the US debt deal will delay any tapering of quantitative easing until at least the new year. QE, as it has become known, has been an incredible boon to gold, with the metal's rise to a peak of $1,900 an ounce in the fall of 2011 largely credited to the policy of cheap money that has flooded financial markets to the tune of $85 billion per month.