All Questions Answered

It has been a slow week around the majors, unless you are in the running for Japanese superstar Masahiro Tanaka, which the Reds aren’t. With the holidays, things got pretty backed up, so I am turning to the All Questions Answered topic to finish out the week and bring back from fresh content on Monday (or sooner if the Reds pull off some sort of deal between now and then – hint, hint, nudge, nudge Walt). The rules are the same as always:

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Doug Gray is the owner and operator of this website and has been running it since 2004 in one variation or another. You can follow him on twitter @dougdirt24, contact him via email here or follow the site on Facebook. and Youtube.

1. Yes, but the offense will have to show up. They winner is going to need to score 70.

2. I think they will. They are better on paper.

3. Yes. They have been very, very good at home and the Ravens offense simply isn’t good. If the game were on the road, it may be different because for whatever reason the Bengals play like crap on the road. But here in Cincinnati Andy Dalton can sling it. 31-17.

Bonus. If they are the #3 seed, yes. If they are the #2 seed, I am much less certain.

1. I am all for acquiring Mike Trout or Bryce Harper…. but realistically, I would like to see Brett Gardner become a Red and play CF for 2014. Any “stable” bat that could be added to the lineup is something I would like to see. The Reds need to add offense somewhere in the lineup. A guy who is consistent and can get on base at least 33% of the time.

2. 120.

3. No, probably not. I will say he gets to 3 all-star games in that span though.

1) With BP still at 2B along with a lineup that includes Ludwig, Hamilton and Mes, how do the Reds stack up defensively in the NL? top three, bottom three, or middle of pack?
2) If all Walt does is extend Latos AND Bailey, would you call that a successful off season?
3) How is your Father?

1. Likely top 3. Looking around, everyone on the infield is considered above-average with maybe the exception of Mesoraco and we don’t really know about him because of his past inconsistent playing time. In the outfield, Bruce and Hamilton are both above-average as well and Ludwick is at least average if not better. The defense is going to be very good.

2. Yes, but I could understand where others wouldn’t because that really doesn’t improve the team for 2014.

3. At the doctor right now for our every Friday appointment. They are saying things are improving, and he says he can feel a bit of a difference. So that is good. But, we have a very long way to go.

1. I never like picking breakout guys this early because I like to hear if someone is doing something in spring that stands out. Based off of how some guys played in 2013 though, Ryan LaMarre finished very strong and began showing off some power that he always had but wasn’t able to tap into. I also think that a guy like Gabriel Rosa could do something. His peripheral rates were good, and he has big tools, but the numbers just didn’t happen in 2013 for him.

2. While the Reds like guys like Carlton Daal and Cory Thompson, I would target a shortstop. I still think the Reds are lacking some depth there as well as a guy with the potential to be a starter that is currently in full season ball. With two top 40 picks I imagine one will be a pitcher and the other a position player. You always have to see who is there when you go, but ideally, I would hope a shortstop fits in for one of those positions.

1. I guess that depends on what your position is based on exactly. I am a fan of his stuff. It’s very good. If people believe he is going to start, which I actually think he has a shot at if he were going to be given the chance, maybe we need to change that position because from what I can read into it, he isn’t going to be a starter.

2. Bruce makes himself a valuable trade chip. I don’t think Winker makes it as a right fielder, so really it is just Yorman for his conversation and even if he were to break out, I don’t think the Reds will be looking to move Bruce.

3. That really is an interesting trade. Jones is basically Brandon Phillips with power and plays center field. Solid average, low OBP guy. I think I would pull the trigger on that for the Reds, so if I had to pick, I would say the Orioles would say no.

1. I will be upfront and say that I saw more of Maloney, so I have more information to work with. With that said, I liked Maloney more. Maloney had much better control than what I saw when I watched Holmberg pitch. If I hadn’t looked at his numbers and just guessed his walk rate based on the control from the games when I watched him, I would have said he was probably walking 4 guys per 9 innings. I just didn’t see him hitting his spots with any of his pitches. I liked Maloney’s breaking ball a little bit more too. It may be a simple sample size of only having watched a few games of Holmberg and never seeing him in person, but at this point I have some questions about him and think that he is ranked higher by the national guys than I have him by a decent margin.

2. Phillips, Frazier, Votto, Bruce, Ludwick, Mesoraco, Hamilton, Cozart, Pitcher. I would split Votto and Bruce against lefty starters, probably just switching Bruce and Ludwick. If Hamilton starts showing that he is ready to move up in the lineup, I would address that at the time. I wouldn’t just throw him into the leadoff spot right off of the bat though. I like him 7th and in front of Cozart. Cozart can make contact and he has a little bit of pop. Let Hamilton get him some fastballs and run wild.

1) Would you consider re-signing Arroyo to a 2-year deal in order to trade one of the other starters now?
2) If yes, which starter would you try to move and for what kind of return?
3) If no, would you consider moving a starter given the current rotation depth, or would you feel a need to get an additional arm before making any deals?

Based upon reading your information at this great site, I’ve got my hopes up for Ervin, Winker & Seth Mejias-Brean. Do you think each has a greater than 50% chance of being an above-average MLB starter (not just player)? When would you estimate each players arrival at the MLB level? Finally, what Home Run average would you project for SMB at the MLB level?

1. No. I wouldn’t put SMB there. Ervin and Winker, probably. I just want to see more from SMB before tossing him in there with those two guys. Ervin and Winker are both in my top 4, while SMB was 18th.

2. I think Ervin and Winker could both potentially be ready at some point in 2015, but 2016 seems more likely. SMB is probably more in the for sure 2016 range for an earliest estimate.

3. Until I see him tap into his power more in games (home run wise), I would say 15.

It seems in recent years the Reds have brought in minor league FA’s that have ended up making the squad out of ST (McDonald, Robinson, Izturis, etc). Does Jason Bourgeois have a shot to compete for CF duties?

Yesterday when writing up about relievers, no Jose Diaz mention. Already in AAA and was their closer. Put up solid numbers last year and in winter ball. Why no inclusion?

Is Ondrusek the odd man out in the BP, and if so where does he go? By my count I have Chapman, Broxton, Marshall, Hoover, LeCure, Parra, Simon as the seven in the pen.

1. Doubtful. The outfield is pretty set I would think. Bruce, Hamilton, Ludwick, Schumaker and Heisey are all going to be ahead of him on the depth chart.

2. Diaz is going to be 30 next season. You just don’t see guys that often debut at 30 and stick around for the long haul.

3. I would think he would be, assuming that everyone is healthy, but that is a big assumption at this point. It seems that hardly is ever the case. But, I imagine that he would be traded if there isn’t a spot for him.

1. I think he has a #2 upside. I want to see more consistency with his stuff across the board. But when he was at his best, he was really good. With that said, there were times when his stuff didn’t stand out either. I think that is where you see some of the writers coming from when the reports leave people concerned. If you saw him at the wrong time, you are probably a lot different on him than if you saw him on the right day. I saw him on both kinds of those days. As an upside guy, I pay more attention to the best situation than the not-so-good ones because guys tend to grow at this stage.

2. I think that sounds like a good time-frame to me.

3. Improve his control would be the biggest thing for me. He has struggled against lefties in his career (kind of – the OPS against is actually quite good, but his K/BB rate is very poor against them).

1. I honestly don’t know. I am very surprised they balked at Phillips for him.

2. Anyone who is a true upgrade to someone they already have. That is such a tough question to answer.

3. I am pretty sure that I first started writing about the farm system back in 2005 (though all of that is now gone). It was a different kind of thing back then and has gone from that, to writing at Blogspot (redsminorleagues.blogspot.com/), to MVN (Most Valuable Network – no longer around, but was basically like what SB Nation is now) to doing things all on my own again and where things are now.

I am looking at the draft order and the reds have the 20th & 30th picks (this can change w/ more free agents out there) but I noticed the Reds did not have any competitive balance picks this year. Do you know why we didn’t qualify (like we have in the past)?

Doug, in regards to Choo, how does a guy that had a very good year, (not a great year) get 130 million over 7 years? He batted .285. 133 SO,and very average defensive player. He had a very good OBP with the 119 walks and did a lot of things right in a contract year but not worth even close to the money he got! I predict it was a career year for him!

To be completely fair, Choo did have a great year. He has had 4 seasons in his career with an .880+ OPS, with 2013 tying for his 2nd best. Choo is an elite OBP player who also has power and solid defense in the corners. Essentially,he is one of the best corner outfielders in the game (no one is considering him as a center fielder). Teams are flush with cash. I am more curious as to how Jacoby Ellsbury got the deal that he did, having topped 10 home runs once in his entire career.

Hardly any free agent performs enough for their contract, but that is just how the game is set up. Teams overpay for guys 30-40 year seasons because they drastically underpay them in their 20’s.

1. Both are excellent. There is more to do in downtown Louisville if you are looking for stuff to do beyond the ballpark though.

2. I sure hope they are, and I don’t think the bubble will completely burst because advertisers are paying through the roof for actual commercials people will watch. But, I do think that the Reds are going to get significantly less than some other teams were able to.

Doug, I saw you mentioned you would do a hypothetical deal with the O’s for Adam Jones. Does having prospects like Winker and Ervin, who seem to have good chances to be decent major leaguers due to their advanced approaches, prevent you from trading assets at other positions (in this case 2B- Phillips and P- Chapman) for a high paid OF like Jones, since you have solid cheap alternative OF help in the near future? Or do you worry about it in 2 years when you hopefully a good problem?

I worry about it when I need to. If those two were in AA at the end of 2013, it may have changed things, but they are both still a ways away. Injuries happen, some times guys just don’t develop as you expect. Especially with a team like the Reds who has the horses today to do some real damage.

Jim that is the most serious situation about 2014. If he bounces back, we should be fine. If not, we have no suitable backup. Another year of near zero offense from LF will be a killer. The Reds are taking one heck of a chance rolling the dice on Ludwick. Hopefully, he comes through.

I hope Mes breaks out this year, because this team needs it. I think he’s one of the only guys in the lineup other than Bruce or Votto than can be a difference maker. It seems he started trying to yank everything once he got to the bigs, which Price alluded to a couple weeks ago. If he can start going the other way, which should help him hit the ball harder more consistently, I think he will trend closer to those numbers he had in the upper minors that we all loved!

Reds give more? Can’t imagine them wanting to do it at all. They have Denorfia already in Chris Heisey. Patterson is a Class A shortstop who hit .300 in an inflated offensive California League. So an All Star closer for a Class A infield prospect?

#1 – Don’t you think that gambling on Ludwick is one hell of a crazy bet. The odds are long against. If he is on the team, he would not be penciled-in at cleanup on my card until/if he showed me what I want to see.

#2 – Why, why, why did management not replace him when he went down last year?! They made a big move to get Choo for 1 year only. On day one, Ludwick went down and that was that. Choo was wasted and the General was given away for nothing. Very, very poor management. Small-market organizations that hope to compete don’t make stupid moves like that.

Fairly or unfairly, the team owes him plenty of money and when you aren’t a big payroll team, you aren’t benching a guy like that. As for not replacing him last year, it was probably due to them having trouble finding a guy who only had 1 year on their deal and was also affordable in both money and players to acquire.

Yardbarker

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