National Weather Service: Safer Now, or Safer Later?

It’s no surprising that the federal budget dysfunction extends to the National Weather Service. Let’s review:

Saturday, May 26, 2012: An internal investigation concludes that the NWS had been secretly moving about $30M/yr in money budgeted for technological improvements to maintain staffing at local offices, contravening the official budgets approved by Congress. Jack Hayes, the head of the NWS, resigns the next day. As reported: “The investigative report recommends that weather offices be fully funded, that supervisory structure of NWS be restructured to provide additional oversight, and that the budget process be reformed to allow staff to raise substantive concerns about prioritization and long-term planning.”

Thursday, June 26, 2012: After receiving approval from the Senate, NOAA goes to the House to formally request about $36M be rebudgeted away from technological improvements in the current fiscal year to keep maintaining staffing at local offices. The House delays action, seeking more information from NOAA on the scandal. According to the article, “’We want to reassure the employees’ that lawmakers will likely authorize the request to avoid furloughing staff members, said Rep. Frank R. Wolf (R-Va.), who leads the panel that oversees NOAA’s budget. But Wolf said lawmakers want to ‘send a message to other agencies’ that moving millions of dollars between accounts without asking permission from Congress is a serious and potentially illegal abuse of authority. ‘It’s important to follow the law,’ he said.

Tuesday, Mar. 26, 2013: President Obama signs into law a $34M increase in NWS funding, possibly enough to cover the shortfall. However, because of poor accounting, nobody knows yet how big the shortfall really is. Meanwhile, sequestration leaves the NWS with less money than before, despite the increase.

Tuesday, May 28, 2013: NOAA continues to hold the line on required furloughs, saying it has no other choice. Meanwhile, Rep. Wolf, employee unions, and emergency management officials put pressure on the agency. As for improvements in technology, a NWS employee admits that field offices still must use internet connection technology from the mid-1990s.

Friday, May 31, 2013: NOAA announces that the NWS will not go through with planned personnel furloughs. Acting Administrator Kathryn Sullivan says that the NWS will achieve the necessary budget cuts by freezing hiring, limiting travel and training, and cutting grant and contract funding.

Summarizing: The NWS asked for and received a budget for field office personnel smaller than it needed. It secretly raided the technology fund to make up the difference. It doesn’t really know how much money it needs for personnel, but it’s certainly not getting enough this year. The NWS tries to balance out the cuts, taking a hit in present-day safety while at the same time hurting future safety by suspending or reducing hiring, training, travel, and research. In response to pressure, it changes its mind, maintaining present-day staffing while further cutting hiring, travel, training, and grants and contracts.

Outcome: For an agency tasked to forecast the future, the NWS is living solidly in the past and present. It receives pressure to maintain staffing now, and to accomplish this it delays future increases in public safety. Future gains in weather forecasting techniques are postponed, the ability of present-day forecasters to improve their skills is thwarted, and the pipeline of fresh young forecasters with ideas is closed off.

NWS, thanks to yourselves and thanks to the rest of us, you can save a life now, but you’ll be less able to save a life later.