Post-coup Fiji

The commander improvises

The new regime may find it hard to return to democracy

A MONTH after he seized power in a coup, Fiji's armed-forces commander, Frank Bainimarama, is still hunting for legitimacy. He is unlikely to find it democratically, but he is making political friends. He has handed executive authority back to the former president and taken for himself the job of prime minister. Surprisingly, his new cabinet gives important portfolios to Mahendra Chaudhry, Fiji's first prime minister of Indian descent, ousted in a coup in May 2000. Mr Chaudhry calls this a “strange twist of destiny”, but is poised to become a dominant figure in the new regime.

Fiji's most recent coup, according to the commander, is intended to “clean up” corruption and establish good governance. But from the outset it has had an improvised quality. Having failed to persuade the government to stand down, the commander seized power on December 5th. Saying he was temporarily “stepping into the shoes” of Ratu Josefa Iloilo, the president, he dissolved parliament and sacked Laisenia Qarase, the prime minister.

Upon reappointment, the 86-year-old president retrospectively “fully endorsed” the commander's power-grab. He is not alone in aligning himself with the armed forces. Fiji's customary power, the Great Council of Chiefs, which had refused to endorse the coup, on January 11th threw its weight behind the new regime. Even the Human Rights Commission, normally stalwartly pro-democracy, has produced a 32-page document seeking to justify the coup. Besides members of Mr Chaudhry's Fiji Labour Party, prominent members of the family of the late president, Ratu Sir Kamisese Mara, have taken important portfolios. Populist measures, such as reversing a proposed rise in value-added tax, have increased support for military rule, particularly among ethnic Indians, some 40% of the population.

Foreigners will coax Fiji to hold early elections, but internal pressures may encourage delay. The Commonwealth has suspended Fiji and, like the European Union, will be reluctant to re-engage unless there is some sign of a timetable for the restoration of democracy. The EU link matters. At stake is some $200m earmarked for Fiji's troubled sugar industry.

At home, however, fresh elections might break up the new ruling alliance. Mr Chaudhry would probably still command most of the Indian vote, but most Fijian voters prefer Mr Qarase's party. Even if Commodore Bainimarama's new coalition won a future election, the ethnic-Fijian politicians close to him would probably find themselves junior partners in a Labour-led coalition, and might become disgruntled. And if arrangements do not suit the armed forces, there are now plenty of precedents for another coup.