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I'm a reader, a consumer of books. I also write non-fiction and
recently tried my first foray into fiction with a novel,
Archangels: Rise of the
Jesuits, a thriller about a Jesuit takeover of the
Vatican's finances. To promote the novel, I put up a passive
author's profile on Goodreads and used its Giveaway program.
Readers enter a contest to win a free book offered by publishers
or authors.

Last week, I offered five books to U.S.-based readers and two to
the UK. Goodreads gave me a hyperlink to the names of winners, so
I could send them a courtesy message about estimated delivery
dates. I clicked on one of the links for a U.S. winner, and the
winner's blog mentioned at the top he was also the winner of
another book.

Rigged Contests?

Goodreads apparently uses an algorithm to determine winners at
its discretion. A total of 346 people in the U.S. entered my
short weekend contest for Archangels. If only 50 people
entered for the other book, the odds of winning both books are
around 2.3 percent, if this were a random draw. If 100 people
entered the other contest, the chance of winning both books drops
to 1.3 percent. If more entered the other contest, it drops even
lower. (Update: This particular winner is a long-time active
user, as were several other winners.)

This doesn't seem what readers, publishers or authors have in
mind for a contest. Readers new to Goodreads should be aware the
Giveaways aren't random draws, and in fact seem so far from
random that the odds are very much stacked against them.
Goodreads' algorithm seems very much skewed to reward a minority
of readers, so the larger reader population appears
disadvantaged.

What are the odds of me -- someone who loves to analyze these
things -- discovering this on my first foray into Goodreads?
That's pretty funny in itself, but it gets even funnier.

In the UK, 71 people (I have no idea if any are multiple account
holders) entered the contest for two books. One of my gift books
immediately went on sale on Amazon.co.uk by a "winner." (Update:
It has been verified that the winner was the reseller.) If the
algorithm heavily allocates to active users, then authors should
be aware UK giveaways may be going to resellers, not
readers.

Goodreads Doesn't Appear International, Not That There's
Anything Wrong With That

For giveaways, Goodreads has a drop down menu that can give
authors the impression it has a lot of readers in a lot of
countries. My data suggests that's not so. Readers seem primarily
U.S.-based with some participation in the UK and Canada.
Continental European presence, for example, seems virtually
non-existent.

How did I come up with that? This weekend, I'm doing an
experiment. I'm giving one book each in separate promotions to
the U.S., Canada, UK, Germany, France, Spain, Italy, Brazil, and
India. (Update: These separate promotions were targeted and
exclusive to residents of each country. For example, an Italian
would win the Italy contest and have a better chance of winning
since number of entrants is much lower. My interest was in
reaching an Italian reader, not a non-Italian who would likely
win a contest targeted to "all countries." By separating
promotions, I guaranteed a resident reader of specific targeted
countries would win.) But early results show that by Saturday
mid-day U.S. time -- after continental Europe was up for the
entire day -- each continental European country had exactly one
person requesting the book. But anyone, including an
international bookseller, could put up one account to snag one
book in each of the continental European countries. I personally
don't buy that one person in each country entered the competition
-- although it's possible, and I hope the book will go to a
genuine reader. But I'm not too hopeful of that as I'll explain
later. (Update: Several of the books have been verified to have
gone to genuine readers.)

In any case, Goodreads' international reader participation
appears very tiny. There's nothing wrong with that, and Goodreads
has made no claim to have a large international reader
participation (as far as I know), but publishers and authors
might want to be aware when they do promotions. Update: If you
separate countries as I did, you'll find that your old promotions
can't be deleted and your new one's will exceed your ability to
view the promotions. Mine totaled eleven, and you can only view
ten total. There's no mechanism to view a "page 2" or to scroll
to see your eleventh promotion. It will be approved, but
invisible to you, so you cannot view the progress. You must hunt
around, click through to "Giveaways" and look for your Giveaways
on the right rail, away from your Author's Dashboard. I called
this to Goodreads' attention, but it has not yet solved the
problem.

Amazon and Goodreads: Giveaways to
Resellers?

My novel was originally an eBook. Just recently I offered
print-on-demand via Amazon affiliate CreateSpace. Since the book
is brand new, I can see exactly how many copies were produced,
and I shut down distribution to all except Amazon. But
immediately after the Goodreads' giveaway books were delivered,
books showed up for sale as "used" on Amazon, but are listed as
"new" in the U.S. The Amazon price is $12.99, and as of this
writing, the six resellers are offering the book for $15.61,
$16.23, 16.63, $34.41, $41.19, and $63.49 (plus $3.99 shipping).
It's worth keeping in mind I offered five in the U.S. and one
showed up for sale in the UK. One of those six on Amazon.com is
offered through UK-based Amazon affiliate, the Book Depository.
It's possible the resellers are supplying themselves via Amazon
and not via Goodreads' giveaway program meant for readers. It
could simply be a coincidence; what are the odds?

Amazon makes it easy for writers to self-publish, promote, and
distribute through Amazon's network. Goodreads provides a nice
venue for readers who enjoy social media and competes with Amazon
in that area, but it seems to have hitched its wagon to Barnes
& Noble, a company currently cutting stores and reducing overhead. Perhaps
the phenomena I observed are related to some competitive
belly-bumping.