000
FXUS63 KOAX 010446
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1146 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015
STORMS HAVE FIRED ALONG THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN EAST CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. WHILE BULK EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS WEAK AT 20 TO 30
KNOTS...INSTABILITY IS EXTREME WITH 3000-4500 J/KG OF SURFACE
CAPE. THE STORMS DO HAVE A HISTORY OF QUARTER TO GOLF BALL SIZE
HAIL. THIS THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE TROUGH
SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH. REFERENCE THE LATEST SWOMCD PRODUCT FOR
ADDITIONAL FORECAST DETAILS.
FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE NEXT WAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
AREA ON NORTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AND COULD EVEN BECOME A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT.
CONVECTION CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY MID
AFTERNOON...THEN ROLLING EAST SOUTHEAST DOWN THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH THE EVENING. LOWER CHANCES OF RAIN IN TO SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA SOUTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT WILL STILL MAINTAIN A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS THERE.
WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY...BUT HOT CONDITIONS. A
NEW COLD FRONT DOES MOVE BUT MODELS GENERALLY REMAIN DRY. THE
FRONT DOES STALL NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MAY PUSH
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY. STORMS COULD DEVELOP NORTH
OF THE FRONT AS ANOTHER IMPULSE MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
ON NORTHWEST FLOW.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015
THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH NUMEROUS
CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD...NEARLY A DAILY CHANCE AS
SEVERAL IMPULSES AFFECT THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015
WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW TRENDS FROM MOST RECENT HRRR MODEL RUNS.
SOME PATCHY FOG APPEARS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AFTER 09Z AND MAINLY
AROUND KOMA. BY MID TO LATE MORNING...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OR SO. THERE APPEARS TO BE A DECENT
CHANCE THAT A TSTM COMPLEX WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND THEN DEVELOP/MOVE SOUTHEAST.
ATTEMPTED TO TIME THIS WITH PROB30 GROUPS FOR NOW. MENTIONED SOME
VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS AT KOFK WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AND
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY AFFECT THAT LOCATION FIRST.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER