Press Digest: EU and U.S. may impose new sanctions over Donbass elections

RBTH presents a selection of views from leading Russian media on international events, featuring a report on the possibility of further EU and U.S. sanctions if Ukraine’s rebel republics do not meet demands over election dates, as well as analysis of Europe’s migration crisis and discussion of the likely future price of oil.

Elections in Donbass may result in
new sanctions against Russia

The Kommersant business daily reports that the European Union
and the U.S. are reviewing the possibility of introducing new sanctions against
Russia. This will happen in the event that the governments of Ukraine’s
self-proclaimed republics of Donetsk and Lugansk (the DNR and LNR) refuse to
hold their local elections on Oct. 25, the day in which they will be held
throughout Ukraine. The DNR elections are planned for Oct. 18 and the LNR will
hold polling on Nov. 1.

"If the representatives of
Donetsk and Lugansk continue to insist, and the elections in Donbass are held
separately from the Ukrainian ones, do not correspond to Ukrainian laws and are
not monitored by international observers, this will be a serious and demonstrative
blow to the Minsk agreements," said a Kommersant source within western
diplomatic circles.

"In essence, this will be the
final nail in the coffin of the peace agreement. No one in Europe and the U.S.
will believe that Russia is capable of influencing the separatists to turn away
from this dangerous path."

The issue of the period and
conditions for holding the local elections in Donetsk and Lugansk will be
discussed this week in Minsk during a meeting between the foreign ministers of
Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany.

Refugee center set
on fire in Estonia

The Svobodnaya Pressa newspaper analyzes an
incident in Estonia, where in the village of Vao some unidentified people set a
refugee center on fire at four o'clock in the morning on Sept. 4. Several dozen
people, including children, were in the center at the time. Thanks to prompt
intervention from the local firemen there were no victims.

"We're dealing with potential
mass murder," said Member of the European Parliament and former Estonian
Foreign Minister Urmas Paet.

Experts believe that this is only the
beginning of the migration crisis in Europe.

"I think that the problem of
refugees in the European Union in the long term is more dangerous than the
conflict in Ukraine," said political analyst Yury Dolinsky.

"It will erode the European
organism. It will gradually destroy the European Union, affecting its economy,
its social sphere, it will radicalize the political systems."

Dolinsky believes that people are
fleeing to Europe from the Middle East and from Africa due to the chaos that
the West itself has created.

"However, I can't imagine how
they will solve this problem without shaking the foundations of the EU,” he
said.

Price of oil may
fall to $25 per barrel

The centrist daily Nezavisimaya
Gazeta discusses
the future of world oil prices. In the opinion of former Fuel and Energy
Minister Yury Shafranik, the sanctions against Russia have substantially
affected the country’s oil industry.

"The ban on sending
high-technology equipment to Russia and Russia's inability to obtain long-term
credit may significantly alter the primary forecasts concerning oil
production," said Shafranik.

The former minister believes that oil
prices will fluctuate around $50 per barrel, yet a price of $30 or even $20
cannot be excluded. The Russian Finance Ministry has still not determined the
oil price that will become the basis of the 2016 federal budget. For now
officials in the ministry say that the price "will be $40 per
barrel."

Head of Sberbank German Gref is
making similar forecasts: "I don't think that the price will fall unpredictably
to $20-30 per barrel. The price of $50-60 per barrel may not be very pleasant,
but it is not critical. I would focus on these levels and the consequent
ruble-dollar exchange rates,” he said.

Meanwhile, analysts from Aton assert
that oil prices do not depend on the number of wells. In the last years the oil
industry has preferred to explore new deposits rather then invest in the
development of existing ones.

Nevertheless, investments in oil production
in Russia are being reduced and eventually this will lead to a reduction in
volume, according to Nezavisimaya Gazeta.