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Melting Mountains

The roof of the world is springing a dangerous leak. Accelerated melting of glaciers and changes in rainfall patterns in the high Himalayan mountain chain are posing a growing risk to people’s lives and livelihoods in the 10 river basins downstream.

When climate-change negotiators meet in Barcelona next week ahead of their gathering in Copenhagen, they should not forget the need for greater attention to the plight of the Himalayas.

The region is the source of the largest rivers in Asia, a vast hydrological system that supplies water to millions of people and plays an important role in global atmospheric circulation, biodiversity, rain-fed and irrigated agriculture and hydropower.

Sometimes called the Earth’s “Third Pole,” the snow and ice in the region constitute the principal river run-off from any single site on the planet. The Himalayan-Hindu Kush mountain glaciers form the water towers of Asia.

If the melting of the large ice sheets in the Arctic and Antarctic increases, it will cause ocean levels to rise. The ice and snow melt from the Himalayas, in combination with changes in the nature of precipitation, would have equally large consequences for millions of people.

Rivers that flow from these mountains wind their way through thousands of kilometers of grazing, agricultural and forest lands, and are a source of irrigation, drinking water and energy for some 1.3 billion people who live in the river basins. But the glaciers in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya range are shrinking at a fast pace.

Any long-term loss of natural fresh- water storage is likely to have severe effects on communities downstream. One relatively recent occurrence is the formation of lakes behind glacial debris that can burst and cause “glacial lake outburst floods,” or Glofs. These can do considerable damage downstream.

Perhaps even more important are changes in the magnitude and frequency of rainfall, which, in combination with a reduced amount of snow and ice, could have substantial impact on the availability of water. The effect on food production could be catastrophic.

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There are other signs of climate change in the Himalayas. Flies can now be found at Mount Everest base camps. Mountain populations nearly 3,500 meters above sea level are reporting mosquitoes for the first time. In the past, cooler temperatures protected populations from these disease-carrying bugs.

Himalayan communities need support to monitor and take action to adapt to a changing climate. For example, Tibetan nomads already move yaks to alpine meadows much earlier than was their traditional practice. Farmers in the floodplains of Bangladesh build houses on stilts, and Nepali farmers store crop seeds against potential new disasters.

Water storage should be developed in the mountain region to deal with the problem of too much water during the monsoon and too little during the dry season. Increased forest recovery and better land management are essential.

Himalayan institutions and their funding have been inadequate to carry out long-term assessments, and countries in the region have not agreed on ways to share information.

International models for climate change capture global warming trends on a broad scale, but do not adequately follow the events taking place in the large Himalayan drainage basins. For this, well-equipped baseline stations and long-term monitoring, networking and cooperation within and outside the region are essential.

Better disaster forecasting and management, coordinated research and data collection and early warning systems all require financial support and greater international attention. As the two biggest countries in the region, China and India should cooperate with other Himalayan countries instead of remaining locked in cold conflict.

Disaster is not destiny if information, innovation and early warning systems are shared and expanded. But without international support, the “Third Pole” and the millions of people who depend on it are in jeopardy.

Ajay Chhibber is assistant secretary general of the U.N. Development Program and regional director for Asia-Pacific. Andreas Schild is director general of the International Center for Integrated Mountain Development.

A version of this op-ed appears in print on October 31, 2009, in The International Herald Tribune. Today's Paper|Subscribe