Sports Betting Notebook

Is Mississipi State For Real

IS THE NEW #1 TEAM FOR REAL, OR A MIRAGE? RUNNING THE NUMBERS ON MISSISSIPPI STATE

The sports world was pretty much in shock when it was announced Sunday that Mississippi State was the new #1 team in the college football world. Sure, they have been playing great ball. But, it’s rare for the pollsters to let a #3 team leapfrog #1...particularly when that #1 team is undefeated and the defending national champions themselves!

And, that doesn’t even account for the fact that Mississippi State as a co-#3 with Ole Miss. And, Ole Miss was impressive Saturday Night winning on the road at Texas A&M. What the voting tells you is that a lot of pollsters are old guys who didn’t want to stay up late to see if Ole Miss matched Miss. State!

Anyway, the polling is relative trivia right now because so much of the season is left. And, a four-team tournament will ultimately determine who wins. Maybe neither of the Mississippi schools will ultimately qualify for the Final Four. Maybe they BOTH will if they play a great game against each other in the Egg Bowl and the winner takes the SEC crown soon afterward.

For now, let’s concern ourselves with the question of whether or not Mississippi State is a legitimate #1 team. The airwaves are full of protesters who think the team played a soft pre-conference schedule (which they did), and that the SEC is overrated (which is has been demonstrably insane for almost a decade but people still believe it), or that the Bulldogs have been getting lucky and their luck is about to run out.

Mississippi State has three “signature” wins on their resume. Let’s take a closer look at those.

Mississippi State (+7) beat LSU 34-29This was actually more lopsided than the score makes it sound. Though, Mississippi State had to sweat the ending because they took their foot off the gas too early. State had a huge lead until late. And, even with a garbage-time that heavily favored LSU, State won total yardage 570-430 and rushing yardage 302-89. They held LSU to just 2 for 13 on third downs! And, remember, this happened in Baton Rouge...a historically strong home field.

Everyone would probably agree that this isn’t a vintage LSU team. But, they haven’t suddenly become a doormat. State was dominant until thinking they had it won a bit too early. The stats were consistent with what a national championship contender would do on this field vs. this opponent.

Mississippi State (-2.5) beat Texas A&M 48-31The Bulldogs jumped out to a 28-10 lead on their way to an easy win. The Aggies scored some garbage time points to make it misleading close, just like LSU did. State led 48-17 early in the fourth quarter. That also helped them even up the yardage. State would win total yards 559-526, but rushing yardage by a commanding 289-161. This team is great at the point of attack! The Aggies were only 5 of 17 on third downs. So, Mississippi State held LSU and A&M to an astonishing 7 of 30 on third down tries!

Again, this is consistent with what a national contender would do at home against Texas A&M...at least through the bulk of the matchup. Mississippi State doesn’t yet have the BENCH of a national champion! We’ll grant that Ole Miss was also impressive against the Aggies, and that came at College Station. But, that’s just evidence suggesting BOTH schools from Mississippi are for real. There’s nothing so far showing Mississippi State is lucky, or overrated. Have both LSU and Texas A&M become doormats?

Mississippi State (+2) beat Auburn 38-23Remember here that Auburn was national #2 at the time of kickoff, and were national runners-up last year after just missing an upset over Florida State in the title tilt. You only have to MATCH Auburn through 60 minutes to prove you should be on the short list of championship hopefuls. State coasted on the scoreboard (up 28-13 at the half) and played a fairly even game statistically vs. a proven power.

Mistakes were definitely a concern if you’re a Bulldogs fan trying to foresee a championship run. But, Mississippi State was also forcing them! And, there was some heavy rain and wet field conditions through much of the afternoon. Not to make excuses...we’re not going to endorse a turnover prone team as a championship lock. But, this was a statistical dead heat with a proven powerhouse...which pretty much solidifies the fact that Mississippi State is now a powerhouse.

Can they keep it up? Can they adjust from being the hunter to being the hunted? Can they maintain focus week-in and week-out through another month and a half? And, will the lack of depth that’s shown up in garbage time become a major issue if fatigue sets in or a couple of playmakers get hurt?

Frankly, even if Mississippi State was an absolutely, positively TRUE #1 team, the odds would be against them surviving unscathed through the SEC West, the SEC Championship, and the Final Four. For now, the evidence suggests that they have earned what they reaped. Maybe both Mississippi schools should share the top spot until one gets separation. Maybe Florida State will snap out of cruise control and re-establish themselves as the best in the land. And, just because Auburn lost a road game to a tough team doesn’t mean the Tigers are out of the mix.

If you’re one of the skeptics saying Mississippi State is a pretender because of their soft non-conference schedule, you haven’t been paying close enough attention. Given what’s happened thus far in the historically tough SEC, you would have to try to make the case that LSU is extremely overrated (possible), AND Texas A&M is extremely overrated (maybe), AND Auburn is extremely overrated (no way). All three? Can’t get there from here.

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Now, pay close attention to the upcoming schedule here in the NOTEBOOK!

Thursday: Expanded stat preview of NY Jets at New England in the NFLFriday: Stat previews for the full weekend of NFL actionMonday: Expanded stat preview of Houston at Pittsburgh in the NFL

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Tuesday:4 p.m. ET: St. Louis at San Francisco in Game 3 of the NLCS on Fox18 p.m. ET: Baltimore at Kansas City in Game 3 of the ALCS on TBS8 p.m. ET: Louisiana Lafayette at Texas State on ESPN2

Wednesday:4 p.m. ET: Baltimore at Kansas City in Game 4 of the ALCS on TBS8 p.m. ET: St. Louis at San Francisco in Game 4 of the NLCS on Fox1

The exclusive TEAM HANDICAPPING approach that features scouts, sources, statheads, computer programmers, and Wise Guy connections really pays off at this time of year. Whatever the sport...whatever the day of the week...DON’T MAKE A MOVE UNTIL YOU HEAR WHAT JIM HURLEY HAS TO SAY!

There is one angle that rates a team at the 80% win expectancy, and another stat that points to a certain pitcher having a 77% chance of him getting the win, and BOTH point to the SAME TEAM...which is the UNDERDOG.

Use these games to double your bankroll...then at least double your entire season’s profits! Remember, the green of August is the Gold of December. Build football profits in Jim Hurley’s Pre-Season. Three games Thursday, and I’m looking at two that I know will cover.

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