Patent Expirations Put More Than $290 Billion in Prescription Drug Sales at Risk Through 2018

BOSTON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Jun 13, 2012 - EvaluatePharma, the
premier provider of pharmaceutical and biotech analysis including
consensus forecasts, today released its World Preview 2018 report,
providing an in-depth look at how the patent cliff will reshape the
drug industry over the next six years — with valuable insight
into which companies and products will come out as winners. [Note
to editors: The report is available for download at
www.evaluatepharma.com/wp2018.]

The market for prescription drugs, based on the consensus
forecast for the leading 500 pharmaceutical and biotechnology
companies, will grow by 3.1 percent per year between 2011 and 2018
to reach $885 billion, according to World Preview 2018.

EvaluatePharma's analysis shows that more than $290 billion of
prescription drug sales are at risk from patent expirations during
that time frame. As companies have worked to rebuild their
pipeline, the pharmaceutical industry has spent $1.1 trillion over
the last 10 years on research and development, according to the
report.

“It is often said there is an R&D productivity issue,
but is it just poor portfolio strategy and investment choices? Is
too much money being spent chasing too few quality R&D
projects?” asks Anthony Raeside, Head of Research. “The
patent cliff in its own right may not be the problem, but rather
the way management reacts to it.”

The World Preview 2018 report will be officially released at the
2012 BIO International Convention, held June 18-21 in Boston. A
hard-copy Executive Summary of World Preview 2018 will be available
at EvaluatePharma's Booth 1421, and the report is available for
download at
www.evaluatepharma.com/wp2018.

In addition to assessing forecast trends in prescription drug
sales and R&D spending, World Preview 2018 also looks at
therapy area growth and the performance of marketed and pipeline
products. Among this year's key findings:

In the race to become the top
pharmaceutical company, in terms of total prescription drug sales,
Novartis will emerge as a clear leader in 2018, with sales forecast
to reach $51.3 billion by that year. That's $3 billion ahead of its
closest competitors, Pfizer and Sanofi.

Gilead Sciences is set to climb the
most positions within the top 20, moving up seven places to number
15 with prescription sales of $15.1 billion in 2018, thanks in
large part to the company's strong HIV franchise and impressive
forecasts for GS-7977, its recently acquired development stage
hepatitis C product.

Looking at which products will top the
sales charts, Merck & Co.'s Type 2 diabetes therapy franchise,
Januvia/Janumet, will reign. The franchise is forecast to be the
largest global brand in 2018, with sales forecast showing a 10
percent compound annual growth rate between 2011 and 2018 to reach
$9.7 billion in sales.

Gilead's potential new hepatitis C
polymerase inhibitor, GS-7977 — forecast to achieve $5.4
billion in sales in 2018 — is the highest ranked R&D
product in 2018. The second-highest ranked product currently in
R&D is Biogen Idec's oral multiple sclerosis agent, BG-12,
which is expected to reach $3.4 billion in sales in 2018.

In this year's report, EvaluatePharma has added, for the first
time, a geographic analysis looking at the performance of the U.S.,
Europe and Japan pharmaceutical markets in 2011. The analysis
reveals major market growth flatlining in 2011, with little or no
growth in the U.S., a decline in Europe, and modest growth in
Japan.

Since 1996, EvaluatePharma has been the premier source for
pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector analysis, delivering
exclusive, trusted commercial insight into industry performance
through its proprietary platform. EvaluatePharma is staffed by a
team of 75 dedicated healthcare analysts employing rigorous
methodologies to collate, organize and deliver the most-up-to-date
commercial performance data available. An award-winning editorial
team of journalists writing under the EP Vantage name support
EvaluatePharma's analysis, and enable the life science community to
make sound business decisions about value and opportunity. For more
information please visit
www.evaluatepharma.com.

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