Comments

Would a Le Pen victory be any different to a Fillon victory ?Europe is a concentrated field of political corruption second to none, were politicians have overspent future generation's income for their personal own benefit. Not only they all lie about the current state of affairs, but they all avoid telling the People that the iceberg of unfunded liabilities has already hit the country and the consequences will make any previous economic depression look like a walk in the park.They all keep promising universal pensions, subsidies and free lunches for everyone forever.They all will default on all their welfare state promises.Traditional parties, commanded by Fillon, Hollande, Sarkozy et al will default on their promises by financial repression and inflation, but trying to safeguard the Euro.Le Pen and the likes will default on their promises, but likely outside the Euro.Acknowledging the certainty that they will leave us in cahoots, does that make any difference whether it is Le Pen or Fillon who presses the button of our social ruin ?But seriously... Read more

What is missing on both sides of the Atlantic are the sober conservatives and thinking liberals of old, who all understood that a return to a fragmented, hyper-competitive nationalist Europe would spell disaster, as it has repeatedly for centuries. In simpler terms, old white men have gone soft, and prefer pablum to the arduous tasks of old, which were long to fruition and short on instant gratification. Not so today, as they grasping their money bags and push to retain privileged comfort, they condemn future generations to a ruined planet, be it by climate or the effects of war. My only wish is that any still retaining any medals or honors should throw them into the same fire where they burned their books. Read more

Hugo Drochon wonders whether François Fillon can beat Marine Le Pen of the Front National (FN) in next year's presidential election. Fillon's win last Sunday in the run-off in the conservative party primaries confounded all predictions, as he was seen as a "Nobody". He benefited from enduring sentiment against the polarising figure, Nicolas Sarkozy, who lost the Republicans' primaries a week earlier. Many saw this outcome as Fillon's revenge after a series of political humiliations, notably losing the race for the leadership of the UMP - the forerunner of the Republicans - in 2012.Fillon's victory will usher in a traditional, conservative-Catholic right, which is bad news for the ruling Socialists - nicknamed the "comatose left". It's unclear how his highly radical economic reforms, in particular proposals for drastic cuts in public spending, slashing 500.000 jobs, ending the 35-hour week, raising the retirement age, scrapping the wealth tax could help build a fairer society. Left-wing voters would have preferred Alain Juppé, who, as a moderate, could provide an alternative to Le Pen. Fillon, who loathes same-sex marriages and rejects multculturalism, is much further to the right than Juppé, and many left-wing voters fear they wouldn't see much difference between him and the FN frontrunner. Critics see the reactionary Fillon posing as big a threat to liberal values as Le Pen. No wonder Putin lauded him, because he, who has close ties to the Russian Orthodox church - a strong defender of Christianity - sees a soul-mate in Fillon. On foreign policy, the French candidate advocates closer relations with Russia. Fillon's biggest challenge will now be to stop alienating ordinary voters, as he will need to appeal to a much broader constituency at the presidential election than in the primaries. Marginalised voters could be driven by high unemployment and uncontrolled immigrantion into the arms of the FN, which "already has a predictable core constituency, amounting to about one-quarter of the electorate - a coalition of the old French far right and disaffected working-class voters. A center-left third candidate can be found in the person of Emmanuel Macron, François Hollande's former minister of economy. He has announced that he is running for president, but as an independent candidate, refusing to join Socialist Party primary in January. He is a long shot because he enjoys merely "14% support. As a former banker, he is "an ideal target for Le Pen’s anti-elitist, anti-European rhetoric."Hollande, faced with very low popularity ratings, is the first sitting president in France's modern history not to seek re-election. Since his announcement, his prime minister, Manuel Valls is likely to be favourite to win the Socialist Party candidacy in January, having said he was ready to run. But his polling is "only marginally better than Hollande, at 9%." His premiership has been turbulent, defined by economic and political woes, Europe's migration crisis and an unprecedented wave of terror on French soil. Fillon might be able to "skim votes from Le Pen," and rely on the appeal of "political Catholicism" has on many French voters, and "he Church itself wants to lure Catholics away from the National Front and back into its more traditionally conservative fold." He enjoys strong support from a number of "far-right organizations....during the primaries," because he embraces "laws that would ban the burkini, a full-body bathing suit worn by Muslim women."The author doesn't think that the “Republican unity” would hold, because left-wing voters, "put off by Fillon’s liberal economics and social conservatism, might stay home." As polls have been massively wrong elsewhere this year, it is better not to harbour too much optimism, until Le Pen is soundly defeated next year. Read more

France has a 20% productivity problem vis a vis Germany. This cannot be addressed in the EZ without considerable ongoing chronic pain. Beyond that attempting to rationalise voters voting objectives is completely irrational in my view. French voters have the unfortunate menu of which gastric disorder would they like to opt for. Much like the US. To attempt to say which stomach upset somebody will vote for requires clairvoyant capabilities en masse. Good luck with that Read more

The headline is usually Can Le Pen Beat Fillon? If I was a left wing French voter I'd vote for Le Pen. If Fillon wants to be the next Margaret Thatcher then he wants to go to a low wage, no union economy replacing high wage workers with low paid immigrants. Vive le 1%.Moreover he wants to stay in the Euro. Most of France's economic problems would be made far easier by leaving the Euro.It sounds like a Fillon-Merkel axis will pretty much kill off any prospect of European growth for at least another 5 years if they are both elected. Read more

Fillon wants to do away with the wealth tax, reduce corporate tax rate (down from current 34%), scrap the 35-hour work week, cut around half a million civil servant jobs, raise VAT by 2% (to 22%), loosen labor laws to make it easier for French companies to hire and fire worker, and lower employer contributions.

If you look at France, the people actually in jobs are very productive, however there is a large part of the population unable to get jobs due to labor regulations (unemployment rate 10%, youth 15-24 unemployment 25%). Read more

PS On Air: The Super Germ Threat

NOV 2, 2016

In the latest edition of PS On
Air
, Jim O’Neill discusses how to beat antimicrobial resistance, which
threatens millions of lives, with Gavekal Dragonomics’ Anatole Kaletsky
and Leonardo Maisano of
Il Sole 24 Ore.

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