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How do the GRAMMYs do it? It’s hard enough to narrow it down to only five choices every year, but then they have to vote only one as THE best new artist for an entire year! This year’s nominees, the Lumineers, fun., Hunter Hayes, Frank Ocean and the Alabama Shakes, are all incredibly talented — and completely different artists. There is literally something for everyone among them.

So who will win the award? In this week’s REWIND we look back at past Best New Artist winners (surprising and expected) and try to predict who the GRAMMY voters will choose.