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Hezbollah has Stopped the Flow of Arms From Syria to Lebanon

Hezbollah has raised its military readiness on the whole Lebanese territory in the last few days and put its forces on high alert in the light of the threats it has received from a number of countries, and especially from Israel and Saudi Arabia. Hezbollah forces have been mobilised in the event of any hostile activity on the borders or in the country, notwithstanding the ongoing conviction of its leadership that Israel will not wage war in the near or distant future.

According to well informed sources, Hezbollah fears the possible assassination of a well-known Lebanese figure, Sunni or Christian, similar to the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in 2005. The aim would be to re-mix the cards on the Lebanese scene, accuse Hezbollah and to embarrass President Michel Aoun.

Aoun has raised the challenge against Riyadh during the recent events related to the televised resignation of Prime Minister Saad Hariri, and he has accused Saudi Arabia of holding Hariri as a hostage (for more than two weeks), defining the Prime Minister’s submission to this act as “unconstitutional and illegitimate.”

Moreover, Hezbollah, in coordination with Iran, has issued orders not to transfer weapons sent to it from Iran via Syria to Lebanon for clearly motivated reasons:

-There is no longer a reason to store weapons in Lebanon because the Lebanese-Syrian front has become united. Hezbollah needs to maintain accurate and long-range missiles in Syria, confirming what Hezbollah Secretary-General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and Syrian President Bashar Assad have said, that “Syria is one front against Israel in the next war.”

– Hezbollah’s weapons stores in Lebanon are full, its warehouses are overflowing. Hezbollah therefore could maintain a long war if Israel did decide to attack Lebanon, and has the capability of launching hundreds of rockets and missiles daily.

It is clear that President Bashar al-Assad has emerged stronger from the war that has been going on for more than six years. His thinking is now orientated towards the Israeli threat, to tune in with Hezbollah and to assure Saudi Arabia and Israel that Hezbollah will not be left alone in any future battle because the front from Naqoura to the Golan is now united. Assad is determined and able to respond to any Israeli violation following the total defeat of the “Islamic State” in all the Syrian cities.

Thus, Assad has lived with and survived the war and has learned to accept losses: during the hard days of the war, the number of soldiers killed reached hundreds in some battles. The Syrian leadership is in a better position to accept the consequences of any future war with Israel as long as the goals are reached despite the sacrifices required.

But Assad will not be alone facing any future attack on Hezbollah. There are thousands of fighters in Syria from neighbouring countries, at the request of the Syrian government. These shall certainly not be neutral in the next war with Israel if it should happen.

Damascus will be careful not to provoke directly the United States in the next war with Israel, but it will give a free hand to the Syrian resistance if the US decides to occupy north-east Syria.

The presence of Russian troops in the Levant may not allow all belligerents to be dragged into a large war with multiple frontiers and certainly not a third world war. Israel is so far giving signs that its forces are aware of the future danger and won’t be dragged into a war in the region despite Saudi Arabia’s financial offers and support. The Saudis were responsible for kidnapping the Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri (has been released today), aiming to present Lebanon as more vulnerable, inviting Israel, in vain, to attack what the Kingdom defines as the “arms of Iran” in the Middle East.

Russia has no agreement with Israel on anything related to the presence of the Iranian forces and its loyalists in Syria and particularly on the borders with Israel. The Kremlin is not negotiating and disposing of Syrian soil because these matters concern the Syrian government, which intends to recover the occupied Golan after the end of the ISIS threat and al-Qaeda, the Takfiri extremists, in Syria.

Saudi Arabia renewed power ploy in the Middle East is likely to more than meet its match because it seriously underestimates Hezbollah as an effective outreach of Iran.

Once again I would like to thank the author for his informative article which cleared up a lot of questions about Hezbollah’s arms situation. I am curious to know what the author thinks of Israeli counter claims that they are now monitoring Hezbollah’s arms dumps and can strike them at anytime. Also I am curious about the 100 plus air strikes Israel has carried out, presumably on Hezbollah arms shipments from Syria. Were these effective? And how did the Israeli’s acquire their targeting information? And again I would like to thank the author for taking the trouble to translate his work into French and English and post it gratis on this page.

israeli pretends they are strong but in reality they are weak, they have lost f35, f16 and a few drones to syrian AA, also they failed with their patriot rocket to down hezbollach drones and syrian s200. israel cant do shit and it is matter of time they will fall

Thank you. Many of the Israeli air strikes against Hezbollah on the Syrian territory were indeed accurately targeting arms shipments.It is not difficult for Israel to monitor arms shipment with its constant drones and the one of the US in the sky of Syria. Additionally, the Israeli intelligence services are quite good and may very well have contacts with locals (loading, offloading…).

Published by Elijah J Magnier

Veteran War Zone Correspondent and Senior Political Risk Analyst with over 35 years' experience covering the Middle East and acquiring in-depth experience, robust contacts and political knowledge in Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Libya, Sudan and Syria. Specialised in terrorism and counter-terrorism, intelligence, political assessments, strategic planning and thorough insight in political networks in the region.
Covered on the ground the Israeli invasion to Lebanon (1st war 1982), the Iraq-Iran war, the Lebanese civil war, the Gulf war (1991), the war in the former Yugoslavia (1992-1996), the US invasion to Iraq (2003 to date), the second war in Lebanon (2006), the war in Libya and Syria (2011 to date). Lived for many years in Lebanon, Bosnia, Iraq, Iran, Libya and Syria.
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