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Dodd is one of the most honorable people I've met I'm public life-- or in any walk of life. He was trapped in an impossible situation: Having done nothing wrong-- he in fact sought to stop excessive bonuses, not facilitate them-- he was blamed for the AIG bonuses and for a mortgage loan from a company that became a symbol of the housing crisis. ( I have to note that Countrywide did not go under because it lent money to Chris Dodd, but because it lent money to people who weren't Chris Dodd. And the rate he received was not out of line for a secure credit risk.) But the merits didn't matter because the impression was set in concrete.

So today Dodd did the honorable-- and realistic thing-- for himself, his family and his party. His speech was personal, genuine and remarkably candid about his bleak electoral situation. There was only a brief nod toward the possibility of an improbable victory. I thought Dodd would withdraw after the health reform was signed; obviously, he did it sooner to open the path now for Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal-- who by this time next year will be Senator Blumenthal because he represents the real views of the state. So does Dodd, but voters couldn't see that through a fog of allegation and anger. Although his decision means the loss of a pivotal legislator with a prodigious legacy of achievement, it has no national political implications for 2010.

Dorgan is a different case that illustrates the challenge for Blue State Democrats. He did face a popular potential opponent in the stat's Republican Governor. He might have won, but clearly decided he didn't want to risk the race. The larger lesson is that for the most part, Blue State Democrats can't protect themselves by trying to achieve a calibrated separation from President Obama-- for example, by opposing the public option or a Medicare buy-in or positioning themselves as deficit hawks. Such tactics may be marginally helpful but in the end are fundamentally irrelevant, as we should know from 1994, when some of the biggest Democratic casualties were the bluest of that year's Blue Dogs.

Democrats are inseparably tied to 0bama. And it's more than possible that they will regard that as an advantage-- for sure by 2012 and even by 2010. That may be a lonely view, especially with regard to this year. But I believe we should now be reading the business pages rather than the instant political analysis of a moment or a day. ( Said with apologies to POLITICO, which with regularity seems to predict a falling sky for the President and the Democrats.) The economic reporting increasingly points not only to a recovery, but to real and substantial job creation. If that's the story of the next few months, by August we will be standing on a very different political landscape.

In the Arena, Dodd and Dorgan are the headliners for this news cycle. The underlying truth of the year is the only way forward for Democrats is to be Democrats-- to pass the health reform bill and prove they are a governing party, while accepting the truth that their prospects will fail or more likely rise with the Obama economy. Who knows? By the Fall not just progressives, but even some of the Blue Dogs could be bragging that they cast a brave vote for the stimulus package.

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The Arena is a cross-party, cross-discipline forum for intelligent and lively conversation about political and policy issues. Contributors have been selected by POLITICO staff and editors. David Mark, Arena's moderator, is a Senior Editor at POLITICO. Each morning, POLITICO sends a question based on that day's news to all contributors.