Since 2008, an independent look at challenges and opportunities in sports and financial investing, with occasional diversions as my mood takes me. Nothing is for sale, and this not a Profit and Loss report either. They're boring.

Monday, 30 July 2012

I'm very surprised Mark takes his foot off the pedal at certain times of the month. Some people might say you are being harsh to point it out, but it's quite a valid point.

I'm no expert, but it doesn't make sense to not dive in if there is an opportunity unless you want to have a few days rest which always makes sense especially if you have been hard at it all month.

Most of my losses have been caused by tiredness/lack of concentration or over doing it. You can't beat a fresh mind ready to green up.

I have absolutely no problem with anyone taking a break from trading, but to get the most benefit, it should be a complete break, and ideally timed for days when your markets of choice offer little in the way of likely value opportunities, and days when you need a break, rather than every final week of a month regardless of the season.

And it's not really taking a break when you are still sat in front of your TV and Betfair screen, even if you are in "third gear". If you're at work so to speak, you might as well do the best you can while you are there. At least, that's what my boss tells me! Taking a break for me means no trading, something that July is perfect for. 13 days have seen no action at all from me, and the rest of the month has seen far more punting than trading. This will be the smallest profitable month since.... well, last July. (April was its usual disaster with a four figure loss). July remains ranked 11th, and that seems unlikely to change any time soon, unless the sporting calendar undergoes a major overhaul.I've learned to enjoy the quiet time of year. I can see why some people need a break from trading, but personally, I find it quite exciting and enjoy the challenge. Certainly there are days when I get tired, but there's no shame in hanging up the keyboard early on those days, and coming back fresh the next, but during my 'peak' season of Autumn and Winter, days when I don't trade at all are rare birds. Looking back at last year, I had one day off from September to the end of March, when we headed to Hawaii. I guess I deserved that trip more than I thought. For the record, it wasn't actually me who pointed out that Mark eases up at the end of nearly every month (still waiting to hear which months this doesn't happen) - it was Mark's own Tweet which pointed this out. I was surprised too when I saw it, since this seemed to me unprofessional, yet it was coming from a respected professional, and I merely questioned the logic of this approach.

About Me

I have had a life-long interest in sports and after studying Pure Mathematics with Statistics at secondary school, have been fascinated by odds and probability.
The first system I came up with was a simple one - back the favourite and double up after a loss until a winner. Simple enough in theory, and I told my Dad about it. Not being a betting man himself, he ran it by some of his colleagues, and came home to tell me that it wouldn’t work because a long losing run would mean that the bank would be empty. Then there was always the possibility that the winner would be returned at odds-on, meaning that the total returns would not match the outlay. Not what a ten year old wants to hear! Only slightly daunted, I then went on a search for the Holy Grail, the secret to riches that I knew was out there somewhere. Finally in 2004 I stumbled across an article about Betting Exchanges and four years on I am able to make a steady profit. I am at that age where I can start thinking about retirement and anything I make from trading sports will bring that day forward.