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Election Fails to Boost Support for Canadian PM

by Josephine Mazzuca, PhD

Senior Staff Writer, Toronto Bureau

Jean Chrétien announced that he would retire from his
role as Canadian prime minister in August 2002, after being in
power for more than 10 years. Chrétien took his time,
however, and didn't step down for another 18 months.

Paul Martin, former finance minister in the Chrétien
government, was elected leader of the Liberal Party in November
2003 and took over as prime minister the following month. He
subsequently called for a June federal election, possibly believing
that an easy victory for his party would cement his role as prime
minister. In fact, Martin didn't win the election as easily as
predicted, and the Martin Liberals came to power with a minority
government, winning 135 of the 308 seats in the House of Commons.
(The rival Conservative Party won 99 seats, while the Bloc
Quebecois captured 54 and the New Democrats won 19.)

What do Canadians think about their "new" leader? In early May,
after Martin took over as Canadian prime minister (but before he
called a federal election), almost half of Canadians (45%) approved
of how Martin was handling his job and a similar number (43%)
disapproved. Results from Gallup's most recent poll of Canadians in
late August/early September* show little change, although the gap
between approval and disapproval has widened slightly. Forty-seven
percent approve of the job Martin is doing, compared with 38% who
disapprove.

Looking across the country, Martin's approval rating is highest
in Ontario (52%) and lowest in Quebec (38%). According to Stephen
Clarkson, professor of political economy at University College at
the University of Toronto, the low ratings in Quebec can be easily
explained by Adscam [a scandal involving $250 million that the
federal government spent on advertising between 1997 and 2002 to
fight separatism in Quebec]. Low ratings in the West, he says,
would be consistent with the Liberals' poor performance
historically, as well as Martin having "failed to deliver what he
promised in terms of recruiting star businesses and Western
candidates to change the profile of his government."

General Mood of Canadians

Canadians are also divided on the more general question of "how
things are going" in their country. Almost equal numbers report
feeling satisfied (48%) and dissatisfied (49%). These results are
more positive than they were in May, when a majority of Canadians
(58%) were dissatisfied and 41% were satisfied (see "More Canadians
Than Britons Living the Good Life" in Related Items).

As with their approval of the prime minister, Canadians in
Ontario are most satisfied with how things are going than those in
the rest of Canada. Nelson Wiseman, associate professor in the
department of political science at the University of Toronto, says
that these results are an example of "a divided country, which was
confirmed in the recent election."

Bottom Line

Much like their American neighbors, Canadians offer no decisive
mandate on the leadership of their country. Only time will tell if
Martin will succeed in keeping a tenuous minority Liberal
government in power, and if his reign as prime minister will be as
long-lived as that of his predecessor.

*Results in Canada are based on telephone interviews with
1,005 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Aug. 30-Sept.
6, 2004. For results based on the total sample of national adults,
one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling
error is ±3 percentage points. The survey was conducted by
Gallup Canada.

Slightly more Americans agree (52%) than disagree (45%) that the federal government is responsible for making sure all Americans have healthcare coverage. This balance of views is similar to last year.

Americans' daily self-reports of spending averaged $98 in November, up from $93 in October. The latest figure is the highest average recorded for the month of November since Gallup began tracking consumer spending in 2008.

Americans are now almost evenly split on whether to amend the U.S. Constitution to replace the Electoral College with a popular vote system for electing presidents. In the past, Americans preferred the popular vote.