The US Chamber of Commerce commissioned a Global Strategy Group survey (5/1-3; 500 MS likely voters) and found new Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) holding a 30-22-17-4% lead over former US Agriculture Secretary and ex-Mississippi Congressman Mike Espy (D), state Sen. Chris McDaniel (R-Ellisville), and Tupelo Mayor Jason Shelton (D), respectively. The polling confirms Republican concerns that McDaniel’s candidacy will force Hyde-Smith into a post-election run-off.

Meanwhile, Mayor Shelton announced that he will not continue his campaign, thus allowing Mr. Espy to better coalesce Democrats around his statewide effort. All candidates will appear on the November 6th ballot in a jungle primary format. A likely run-off will ensue on November 27th because it is improbable, at least as this early-going forecast suggests, that any candidate can command an outright majority.

Magnolia State GOP political insider and campaign strategist Andy Taggart, who was publicly considering entering the US Senate special election, announced yesterday that he will not become a candidate. Though Taggart’s candidacy had little chance of resulting in victory against appointed Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R), state Senator and former US Senate candidate Chris McDaniel (R-Ellisville), ex-US Agriculture Secretary and Mississippi Congressman Mike Espy (D), and Tupelo Mayor Jason Shelton (D), another individual taking some voting percentage would help ensure the campaign advances to a run-off election.

Chances are still great the top two November 6th special election finishers are forced to a run-off. Assuming the candidate field remains constant and understanding that all four major contenders are credible candidates, it will be hard for any one to build majority support.

Designated Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) is not yet an official member succeeding retiring Sen. Thad Cochran (R), but that is not stopping special election candidates from coming forward. When Mr. Cochran first announced he would leave the Senate in early April, former US Agriculture Secretary and ex-Mississippi Congressman Mike Espy (D) immediately entered Senate special. Then, Republican state Sen. Chris McDaniel switched from challenging GOP incumbent Roger Wicker to joining the new election. Yesterday, Tupelo Mayor Jason Shelton (D) announced that he, too, will become a Senate special election candidate.

All candidates will appear on the special election ballot that will be held concurrently with the November 6th special election. If no candidate receives a majority vote, the top two, regardless of political party affiliation, will advance to a run-off election three weeks later, on November 27th. The winner will serve the balance of the current term and be eligible to run for a full six-year stint in 2020.

Word is leaking through the Mississippi media corps that Gov. Phil Bryant (R) will name his replacement for retiring Sen. Thad Cochran (R) today. Informed speculation suggests that Agriculture & Commerce Commissioner Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) will be named. If so, she will become the first woman to ever represent Mississippi in Congress.

Ms. Hyde-Smith, upon being sworn in at some point in April, will then run for the seat in November. All candidates will be placed on the November ballot with the top two advancing to a November 27th run-off election if no candidate receives majority support. The winner then serves the balance of the term, meaning he or she will be eligible to run for a full six-year term in 2020. Already, state Sen. Chris McDaniel (R-Ellisville) has announced for the special election. He came close to upsetting Sen. Cochran in the 2014 Republican primary.

Gov. Phil Bryant (R) said yesterday that he will designate his appointment to replace retiring Sen. Thad Cochran (R) before the veteran incumbent actually leaves office. With state Sen. Chris McDaniel (R-Ellisville) already declaring that he will become a candidate in the special election and not continue with his plan to challenge Sen. Roger Wicker in the Republican primary, Gov. Bryant says he wants the new Senator to have as much time as possible to begin preparing a campaign. Sen. Cochran says he will resign after the appropriations process is completed on or around April 1st, but we can now expect the Governor to announce his interim choice very quickly.

One prominent Republican office holder who will not be getting the appointment is Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves. The Lt. Gov. eliminated himself from Senate consideration because he desires to run in the open Governor’s race scheduled for 2019, since Mr. Bryant is ineligible to seek a third term. With Rep. Gregg Harper (R-Pearl/Jackson) and Secretary of State Delbert Hosemann (R) also out of the running, it appears that Agriculture & Commerce Commissioner Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) is the leading potential appointment.

Yesterday, Tea Party state Sen. Chris McDaniel (R) announced that he is abandoning his challenge to incumbent Sen. Roger Wicker (R) this year in order to enter the new special election to replace resigning Sen. Thad Cochran (R). Gov. Phil Bryant (R) will choose a replacement after the Senator officially vacates, which will likely be April 1st. The special election will run concurrently with the general election cycle. All candidates will first appear on the November 6th ballot. Should no candidate receive majority support, the top two would run-off on November 27th.

Sen. Wicker will now be safe for re-election. The appointment process, and impending special election to replace the Senator for the balance of the term, however, just became much more interesting.

Speculation continues to build about who Gov. Phil Bryant (R) will appoint to the Senate once exiting incumbent Thad Cochran (R) resigns on April 1st. While Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves (R) appears to be the Governor’s first choice, signs point to him keeping his current position and entering the open 2019 gubernatorial campaign. Secretary of State Delbert Hosemann (R) was quoted over the weekend as saying that he will run for Lt. Governor, thereby seemingly taking himself out of consideration for the Senate appointment and lending more credence to the idea that Mr. Reeves will continue building an open seat gubernatorial campaign. Gov. Bryant is ineligible to seek a third term in the next regular state election.

Now, speculation is turning toward Agriculture & Commerce Commissioner Cindy Hyde-Smith (R). Mississippi is the only state to never have elected a woman to any of its congressional positions, so Gov. Bryant can begin a new path by appointing a Republican female. Additionally, Ms. Hyde-Smith has the reputation of being a strong campaigner, which is an attribute the Republican leadership wants to see in the appointed Senator.

It appears Secretary of State Delbert Hosemann (R) is not in contention to be appointed as Sen. Thad Cochran’s (R) replacement when the latter man resigns in April. Mr. Hosemann is reportedly saying that he will run for the open Lt. Governor’s position in the 2019 Mississippi statewide regular election. Also reportedly not being interested in obtaining the appointment is retiring Rep. Gregg Harper (R-Pearl). It is likely that Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves (R) has the inside track to be Gov. Phil Bryant’s (R) choice to succeed the retiring veteran Senator, but even he may rather pass in order to seek the open Governorship in 2019.

Speculation has abounded for several weeks that Sen. Thad Cochran (R) was about to announce that he would leave the Senate after 40 years of service due to health problems, and this week he made public his decision to retire. Now, the spotlight turns to Gov. Phil Bryant (R) and whom he will appoint to succeed Sen. Cochran.

Reports had surfaced earlier that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and other GOP leaders were lobbying Gov. Bryant to appoint himself in order to give the Republicans their strongest candidate for the ensuing 2018 special election. Under Mississippi election law, an appointed Senator must stand for election in the succeeding general cycle in order to serve the balance of the current term. All candidates will be on the general election ballot, and if a candidate obtains a majority of the vote, the election is over. If no one reaches the 50% plateau, a run-off between the top two finishers will occur three weeks after the special general election.

Yesterday, Gov. Bryant unequivocally removed himself from consideration for the Senate seat, saying that there is “something nefarious” about making a move to appoint himself. There is yet no indication about who the Governor is definitively leaning toward, but Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves and Secretary of State Delbert Hosemann appear to be at the top of the prospective appointments list.

Sen. Thad Cochran (R), originally elected in 1978 and the 10th longest serving Senator in American history, announced that he will resign his seat on or about April 1st and retire from the Senate. Mr. Cochran issued a statement saying, “I regret my health has become an ongoing challenge. I intend to fulfill my responsibilities and commitments to the people of Mississippi and the Senate through the completion of the 2018 appropriations cycle, after which I will formally retire from the U.S. Senate."

Upon the resignation becoming final, Gov. Phil Bryant (R) will appoint a replacement. This means another Senate seat will be added to the 2018 election cycle. Like Minnesota, Mississippi will have both of its Senators standing for election this year. The new Senator, who will likely run for the seat, will then serve the balance of the current term if elected. The seat next comes before the voters to decide a full six-year term in 2020.