The A-League Analyst Season 2016/17: Round 12

Brisbane Roar v Western Sydney Wanderers

Friday December 23, 7:50pm AEDT

Match Overview

Brisbane were put under pressure away to the Central Coast Mariners last week but their class prevailed with Thomas Broich and Jamie MacLaren combining for a late goal on the counter attack. They learned this week they will need to get through two playoffs, including a trip to China, to reach the Asian Champion League Group Stage proper so will be keen to get on a roll before the extra matches commence in the new year.

Western Sydney drew 2-2 with Wellington in Auckland in an incredibly open game. Talk of a big-name striker acquisition in the January transfer window is gathering momentum and with a poor conversion rate one can understand why. They continue to play lovely football from box to box but struggle to turn that into goals.

Key Statistics

Stats per match (rank)

Brisbane

Wanderers

League Avg

Defensive

Goals Conceded

1 (2)

1.9 (7)

1.5

Shots Faced

3.7 (2)

4.1 (5)

4.4

Clean Sheets (total)

3 (4)

0 (10)

2.1

GC per SF

0.27 (2)

0.47 (10)

0.34

Offensive

GF

1.4 (5)

1.4 (5)

1.5

Shots On (excl Pen/OG)

4.3 (4)

5.2 (1)

4.1

S/On Converstion %

0.28 (5)

0.19 (10)

0.31

Passes per Goal

327

341

315

Statistics Comment

The last 19 Brisbane home matches have resulted in 14 over 2.5 goals. All five of WSW away matches this season have resulted in over 2.5 goals. Western Sydney have averaged 19 total shots and 7.75 on target in their last 4 matches.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Over 2.5 goals for 1.5 units at 1.65+

Adelaide United v Sydney FC

Monday December 26, 7:50pm AEDT

Match Overview

Adelaide, back to virtual full strength for the first time this season, were far better last week but ultimately still lost to the Jets 2-1 thanks to a 94th minute sucker punch. They hit the post twice and missed a clear 1 on 1 before the Jets took the lead. So, it could be argued they should have won but they still conceded double the total shots and shots on target. I said a few weeks ago, that they needed to find a goal scorer and unfortunately, I think Sergi Guardiola is not the answer to suit their style (watch for Bruce Djite to return in January).

Sydney smashed Perth 4-1, the match was somewhat more even than the score suggests although they were still comfortable enough. They lead the league by 7 points and are clearly the best team when I look across all my statistical markers.

Key Statistics

Stats per match (rank)

Adelaide

Sydney

League Avg

Defensive

Goals Conceded

1.7 (6)

0.5 (1)

1.5

Shots Faced

4.1 (5)

2.5 (1)

4.4

Clean Sheets (total)

2 (5)

6 (1)

2.1

GC per SF

0.42 (8)

0.19 (1)

0.34

Offensive

GF

0.9 (10)

2.3 (1)

1.5

Shots On (excl Pen/OG)

3.2 (9)

5.2 (1)

4.1

S/On Converstion %

0.23 (8)

0.39 (2)

0.31

Passes per Goal

467

168

315

Statistics Comment

Sydney are clearly the best ranked team in the league, clinical offensively and stable defensively. Head to head they have not had a good run against Adelaide including a 0-0 draw in Round 8, but that was a few days before the FFA Cup final and they were clearly distracted.

Betting Strategy

BACK – Sydney to win for 1.5 units at 1.9+

BACK – Under 2.5 goals for 1.5 units at 1.95+

Melbourne City v Perth Glory

Tuesday December 27th. 7:50pm

Match Overview

Melbourne City are win-less in three since their FFA Cup triumph and whilst their performances have been ok they do need to lift. Their attack has been stunted and they are yet to cement their preferred formation oscillating between three and four defenders and failing to keep a clean sheet since Round 1 at Wellington.

Perth were torn apart at the back last week having themselves transformed to a 3-man defence following a run of poor results. They did create plenty of chances last week their Total shots of 14 and on target of five was double the average Sydney have conceded all season.

Key Statistics

Stats per match (rank)

City

Perth

League Avg

Defensive

Goals Conceded

1.2 (4)

2.1 (9)

1.5

Shots Faced

3.8 (3)

5.6 (9)

4.4

Clean Sheets (total)

1 (6)

1 (6)

2.1

GC per SF

0.31 (4)

0.37 (7)

0.34

Offensive

GF

1.5 (4)

1.6 (3)

1.5

Shots On (excl Pen/OG)

3.7 (8)

4.3 (4)

4.1

S/On Converstion %

0.34 (3)

0.34 (4)

0.31

Passes per Goal

288

222

315

Statistics Comment

In the last four meetings these teams have combined for 20 goals from an average of 35 total shots and 12 on target. This will be very open.