Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump reacts to the cries of three-month-old Kellen Campbell, of Denver, right, while holding six-month-old Evelyn Keane, of Castel Rock, Colo., after Trump's speech at the Gallogly Event Center on the campus of the University of Colorado on July 29, 2016. (Photo by Joe Mahoney/Getty Images)

What exit polls are out so far show Clinton won among those earning less than $50,000 per year, but lost among those on higher earnings – despite Clinton having much stronger support among the college-educated. It isn’t easy to simultaneously lose badly among those on higher incomes and win strongly among those with college degrees. And race has certainly played a role. None of this cleanly fits an income inequality narrative. But it does fit a cultural narrative.

Look back again at Vance’s description of life in hillbilly country. There was a great interview with Vance in The American Conservative a few months ago. He talks about the resentment felt in those communities about being looked down on by urban elites. About being told that their way of living and religious beliefs and pride in military service are wrong. About their accents being a great source of amusement. Trump earned the same condescension from urban elites that a lot of people who aren’t in that elite feel pretty regularly. And warnings about Trump’s racism, misogyny, and potential fascism ring hollow when those words have lost the meaning they should have through overuse: when everything is a microaggression and when President Bush was regularly compared to Hitler, well, people start discounting when they shouldn’t. And there’s always a fraction of the population that just wants to watch it all burn.

That’s my reckon on “what happened here”. It’s likely wrong, but it is the best explanation I currently have.

Something that I should have thought about when I wrote the piece is how much damage a vindictive narcissist can do through his control of administrative agencies. He will be able to set the IRS and other agencies against his perceived enemies. The vast apparatus of the regulatory regime is scarily unbounded in potential misuse by a bad President. It is this way because, for decades, the governing elite on both sides of the aisle did not see the point of constraining their own power. Libertarians did warn about the need to fix that before somebody really dangerous got a chance to have a go. And now Trump has those reins.

It’s bad, but I worried a bit less about it than I should have because I thought a second check might do a bit more work. But I’m a lot more worried about that one now.

I had hope in the Republican establishment’s hating Trump. It was clear during the nomination race. But since March, they have all fallen into line behind him, or failed to speak out against him. Ted Cruz even manned phone lines for Trump. Paul Ryan worked for Trump. I don’t quite know how to put it politely so I’ll put it in Trumpist terms: Donald Trump made the Republican establishment his bitches. I don’t think the GOP elite fell into line because they expected a Trump victory. Careerist concerns instead came to the fore. And so I worry that House and Senate leaders will fall into line behind Trump rather than protect the Party’s potential long term prospects for similar reasons. I’m worried now that the Republicans in the House and Senate wouldn’t block pernicious appointments.

I’m glad I’m in New Zealand, but we aren’t going to be immune here. I was lukewarm at best about TTPA – that looks dead, but I don’t see great shakes in it either way. Far more worrying is that crazy stuff isn’t out of the question – big new tariffs, for example. Even if they’re only directed at China, the US screwing up China screws up our trade with China. And who the heck knows what will happen to geopolitical stability.

Last night was crazy. I don’t think it will get less crazy from here. Buckle up.

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