Evan Silva

Matchups

Matchups: No Freebie for Free

Aaron Hernandez's four targets, two catches, and 36 yards weren't promising on Thanksgiving night, but his usage was. Returning from a five-week layoff, Pro Football Focus charted him with 57-of-70 snaps played (81.4 percent), and Hernandez's movement skills appeared to be nearly all the way back. Now fresh off ten days rest, Hernandez should be at peak form Sunday at Miami. The Dolphins have allowed the sixth most yards in the league to tight ends. Lock in Hernandez as a top-three tight end play. ... Brandon Lloyd ranks 22nd in the NFL in targets, but the Patriots have failed to connect in the vertical passing game all season and his box-score production has fallen well short of expectations for the Pats and fantasy owners alike. While he does have a favorable Week 13 matchup against struggling Dolphins top CB Sean Smith, Lloyd has panned out as no better than a boom-or-bust WR3 option. ... Wes Welker's last six stat lines against the Dolphins -- his former team -- beginning with most recent: 8-160-2, 12-138, 8-70, 10-167, 9-84, 8-120. ... No. 2 fantasy quarterback Tom Brady has been assassin-like with a 14:0 TD-to-INT ratio over his last five games, chipping in a 15th touchdown on a rushing score. The Dolphins have played stout run defense most of the year, but they are vulnerable in the secondary and rank 26th versus the pass.

Julian Edelman's weekly role appears to be game-plan specific. He started in Week 11 against the Colts, only to fall back down the depth chart on Thanksgiving, with Lloyd getting the start. Valued by OC Josh McDaniels mostly for his blocking ability, Edelman played just 16 snaps against the Jets and was targeted three times before leaving with a third-quarter concussion. Despite scoring touchdowns in back-to-back weeks, Edelman is hard to justify as a WR3 or flex option, beyond perhaps return-yardage leagues. He practiced on a limited basis this week and is uncertain to play on Sunday. ... Confirming his two-score Week 10 game was a fluke, Danny Woodhead has touched the football three times on offense since, gaining 19 yards. He should be on fantasy waiver wires. ... Stevan Ridley has reached pay dirt in four straight games and ranks seventh in the NFL in rushing yardage over the past five weeks, despite a Week 9 bye mixed in. Ridley is an every-week fantasy starter, even in tough matchups like this one. Miami ranks seventh in run defense and shut down Marshawn Lynch last week. … Shane Vereen continues to be a better late-season stash than Woodhead as Ridley’s primary backup, but Vereen’s 133 total yards and a touchdown on Thanksgiving night are not a sign of things to come, barring injury to Ridley. The embarrassing Jets didn’t even account for Vereen on his 83-yard score, and ultimately he’s just a change-of-pace back.

Ryan Tannehill broke out of his midyear rookie funk to complete 18-of-26 passes for 253 yards, a touchdown, and an interception in last week's win over Seattle. While Tannehill is not a legitimate fantasy option -- even against New England's No. 29 pass defense -- his improvement bodes well for Miami's chances of generating ball movement going forward. ... Brian Hartline runs most of his pass routes against left corners and will draw Aqib Talib on the majority of Sunday's snaps. While Talib can be prone to coverage busts, those are difficult to count on in fantasy leagues. Hartline is a shaky WR3. ... Davone Bess' 100-plus-yard effort against the Seahawks was just his second in his last 27 games. Bess doesn't offer enough upside or playmaking ability to warrant a stretch-run roster spot in standard leagues. He's a PPR backup. ... The one factor that could spike Bess and/or Hartline's Week 13 stats would be pass-happy comeback mode. Though it isn't a reliable fantasy factor, it’s certainly a possibility. Neither Hartline nor Bess has a favorable matchup, but it's not out of the question that one or both will emerge with a productive game.

Or maybe H-back Charles Clay will be peppered with targets if the Dolphins fall behind big early. Clay played a season-high 61.7 percent of Miami's offensive snaps versus Seattle, posting career highs in catches (6) and yards (84). Entering Week 12, Clay had exceeded 50 yards in 1-of-24 career games. Was last week's production a sign of stats to come? Your guess is as good as mine. The matchup certainly is right for a desperation start. New England has allowed the most fantasy points in the NFL to tight ends. ... The Dolphins' Reggie Bush-Daniel Thomas timeshare will square off Sunday with the Patriots' top-ten run defense. Bush's 87 rushing yards in Week 12 were a season high since Week 2, and Thomas' 60 were his most since Week 3. Bush has reclaimed the lead running back role in Miami, but is a risky flex option. Thomas should be on fantasy benches.

Score Prediction: Patriots 30, Dolphins 13

Minnesota @ Green Bay

Fresh off a Week 11 bye, the Giants shut down the Packers' passing game last Sunday night with a Big Nickel defense comprised of three safeties -- two back deep at all times -- and relentless front-four pressure. If the Vikings copy the approach this week, Aaron Rodgers should at least be ready for it. Unlike New York, Minnesota doesn't have two weeks to prepare for its away date with Green Bay, and is less equipped in the secondary to keep Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, James Jones, and a returning Greg Jennings contained. Rodgers can dink and dunk with the best of them, and the Vikings' Cover-2 defense will let him. Minnesota has surrendered an 18:6 TD-to-INT ratio and the ninth highest completion rate (64.4) to opposing passers. Expect a bounce-back game from Rodgers. ... In Jennings' return, look for the Packers to use a five-receiver weave with Nelson and Cobb at the top and Jones, Jermichael Finley, and Jennings rounding out the corps. Vikings top CB Antoine Winfield would ordinarily present a difficult draw for Cobb in the slot, but Jennings will see time there too and Green Bay showed against the Giants a willingness to move Cobb outside when matchups dictate it. Cobb has been the Packers' No. 1 offensive option and an every-week starter for the past two months. Don't think he's suddenly slowing down now. ... Rodgers' target distribution since Green Bay's Week 10 bye: Cobb 19, Nelson 9, Finley 8, Alex Green 5, Jones 4, James Starks 2, Donald Driver 1.

Owners need to put Jennings on a "wait-and-see" week against Minnesota. He won't play close to a full dose of snaps and seems unlikely to exceed five targets. Jennings could become a WR3 in the fantasy playoffs, but he's a ways off following in-season groin surgery. ... The book is out on Finley, and he's not a good football player. Finley could be, but he isn't. He may lose snaps with Jennings back and would be a poor fantasy play against a Minnesota defense allowing the tenth fewest receptions and yards to tight ends. ... Jones is also in danger of losing playing time, particularly when Jennings plays the slot and Cobb kicks outside to book end Nelson in three-wide sets. Although making snap decisions based on last week's stats is discouraged in this space, fantasy owners would be smart to take Jones' Week 12 goose egg seriously and sit him this Sunday. ... The Packers are going to have to find a running back in the offseason who can exploit running lanes, because they don't have one right now. If Green runs with shovels on his feet, Starks is working with cement blocks. Avoid Green Bay's backfield against the Vikings.

Feeding Adrian Peterson the football even if they fall behind on the scoreboard will be the Vikings' best -- perhaps only -- way of keeping this game competitive. The league's rushing leader through 11 weeks, Peterson has busted up Green Bay for 429 yards and three touchdowns on 80 carries (5.36 YPC) in these teams' last four meetings. Arguably running at a career-best level, Peterson has averaged six yards per carry or more in five straight games. ... Without Percy Harvin (ankle) playing -- and it certainly doesn't appear he will in Week 13 -- the Vikings' passing game has become a borderline fantasy wasteland. Jerome Simpson (three drops on five Week 12 targets), Michael Jenkins (nicknamed "Molasses Mike" for his lack of separation skills), and raw rookie Jarius Wright are all unreliable standard-league receiver plays. Wright does have ten catches for 114 yards and a touchdown in Harvin's two missed games and is deep leaguers' best bet, but he's about a top-50 option at best. ... Kyle Rudolph has a relatively difficult matchup with a Green Bay defense permitting the fourth fewest fantasy points to tight ends, but he at least figures to receive the bulk of Christian Ponder's pass attempts. Ponder's target distribution in Harvin's two missed games this year: Rudolph 18, Wright 15, Peterson 11, Simpson 9, Jenkins 7, Toby Gerhart 2.

Score Prediction: Packers 28, Vikings 14

Houston @ Tennessee

So much for Arian Foster’s outrageous workload costing him a step. Topping 5.0 YPC for the first time since mid-October and executing twice on red-zone runs, Foster exploited cutback lanes for lengthy jaunts into green grass throughout last Thursday's win over Detroit. Foster now returns from a ten-day rest period after the Thanksgiving game to face Tennessee's No. 27 run defense. There isn't a better fantasy running back bet in the league this week. ... The Texans expect Ben Tate to return from his balky hamstring in Week 13, but coach Gary Kubiak will make Tate earn his No. 2 job back from Justin Forsett. Tate will start out at the bottom of the depth chart. "I’ve got to probably get him going on some special teams," Kubiak said of Tate. "We’ve got to get his play back going. Justin’s done too good a job." Although Forsett was credited with an 81-yard TD against the Lions, the run should have been overturned on replay. Forsett has Jim Schwartz to thank for an ill-timed toss of his red challenge flag, costing Detroit points. Texans tailbacks behind Foster are not Week 13 fantasy options. Tate remains the better stretch-run stash. He will regain the top backup job soon enough.

Friday Update: Titans MLB Colin McCarthy has been ruled out for Week 13 due to a concussion. Tennessee has struggled at linebacker this year aside from SLB Akeem Ayers, and surely will continue to against the Texans.

After a slow start to the season, Andre Johnson is on an absolute tear with a nine-catch, 130-yard average over his last six games. Tennessee ranks 27th against the pass, has surrendered the third most passing touchdowns in football, and allowed Jaguars wideouts Cecil Shorts and Justin Blackmon to combine for nine catches, 167 yards, and two end-zone trips just last week. Johnson is a top-five WR1 in Week 13. ... Matt Schaub's target distribution since Houston's Week 8 bye: Johnson 53, Owen Daniels 25, Kevin Walter and Garrett Graham 20, Foster 14, James Casey 13. ... Keep in mind Daniels missed Week 10 due to a hip injury. In the Texans' pass-catching corps, Johnson and Daniels are every-week fantasy starters and the others are all waiver-wire material. ... Daniels has an attractive Week 13 matchup versus a Tennessee defense playing musical chairs at safety again. SS Jordan Babineaux was benched last week for the second time in the past month. The Titans have allowed the fifth most receptions and eighth most yards to tight ends. ... Back-to-back shootouts have propped up Schaub's production the past two weeks. When the Texans are playing the kind of football they want to play, however, Schaub is no more than a glorified game manager. Start Schaub if you believe this game will turn into a shootout. (Hint: It probably won't.)

Six starts into his NFL career, Jake Locker is an inconsistent if exciting playmaker with a ways to go. From snap to snap, you don't really know what you'll get. Locker did well to keep the offense moving in the first half of last week's loss to Jacksonville, despite a no-show from Tennessee's run game in the first two quarters. Locker was intercepted twice in the game's final three minutes, however, sealing the Jaguars' victory on ill-advised decisions. Locker's TD-to-INT ratio on the year still stands at a respectable 7:4, and he's averaging 7.3 yards per scramble. He's not a realistic standard fantasy league option yet, but does make for a worthwhile two-QB league play. ... While the impact of QBs coach Dowell Loggains' promotion to Titans offensive coordinator remains to be seen, we can expect some new wrinkles. It would make sense for Loggains to prioritize increased roles for Jared Cook and Kenny Britt. Outgoing playcaller Chris Palmer's attempts to do so proved fruitless, but Cook and Britt are Tennessee's top two passing-game weapons. Facing the Texans' top-six defense, this has the look of a wait-and-see week for fantasy owners considering starting Titans pass catchers. Tennessee will have a more intriguing matchup at Indianapolis in Week 14.

Friday Update: Texans top CB Johnathan Joseph has been ruled out for Week 13 due to a lingering hamstring injury. Houston's pass defense has been swiss cheese without Joseph this season. So upgrade Locker and Britt's fantasy matchups.

Kendall Wright has failed to clear 50 yards in five straight games. He can safely be dropped in 12-team leagues and replaced by a running back handcuff. Wright is unlikely to be an impact fantasy wideout down the stretch. ... Nate Washington is 41st in receiver scoring. Like Wright, he is an unattractive Week 13 option and will likely remain so throughout the fantasy playoffs. ... Chris Johnson broke off Week 12 gains of 31 and 22 yards against the Jags, and was held to 56 yards on his other 21 touches (2.67 average). Considering his electrifying performances before the Titans' Week 11 bye, fantasy owners should keep the faith. The Texans' defense has struggled all season to defend running backs who get into space, and Johnson is that kind of player. Despite a painfully slow start to the year, Johnson still ranks 11th among running backs in fantasy scoring.

Score Prediction: Texans 27, Titans 17

1:00PM ET Games

New England @ Miami

Aaron Hernandez's four targets, two catches, and 36 yards weren't promising on Thanksgiving night, but his usage was. Returning from a five-week layoff, Pro Football Focus charted him with 57-of-70 snaps played (81.4 percent), and Hernandez's movement skills appeared to be nearly all the way back. Now fresh off ten days rest, Hernandez should be at peak form Sunday at Miami. The Dolphins have allowed the sixth most yards in the league to tight ends. Lock in Hernandez as a top-three tight end play. ... Brandon Lloyd ranks 22nd in the NFL in targets, but the Patriots have failed to connect in the vertical passing game all season and his box-score production has fallen well short of expectations for the Pats and fantasy owners alike. While he does have a favorable Week 13 matchup against struggling Dolphins top CB Sean Smith, Lloyd has panned out as no better than a boom-or-bust WR3 option. ... Wes Welker's last six stat lines against the Dolphins -- his former team -- beginning with most recent: 8-160-2, 12-138, 8-70, 10-167, 9-84, 8-120. ... No. 2 fantasy quarterback Tom Brady has been assassin-like with a 14:0 TD-to-INT ratio over his last five games, chipping in a 15th touchdown on a rushing score. The Dolphins have played stout run defense most of the year, but they are vulnerable in the secondary and rank 26th versus the pass.

Julian Edelman's weekly role appears to be game-plan specific. He started in Week 11 against the Colts, only to fall back down the depth chart on Thanksgiving, with Lloyd getting the start. Valued by OC Josh McDaniels mostly for his blocking ability, Edelman played just 16 snaps against the Jets and was targeted three times before leaving with a third-quarter concussion. Despite scoring touchdowns in back-to-back weeks, Edelman is hard to justify as a WR3 or flex option, beyond perhaps return-yardage leagues. He practiced on a limited basis this week and is uncertain to play on Sunday. ... Confirming his two-score Week 10 game was a fluke, Danny Woodhead has touched the football three times on offense since, gaining 19 yards. He should be on fantasy waiver wires. ... Stevan Ridley has reached pay dirt in four straight games and ranks seventh in the NFL in rushing yardage over the past five weeks, despite a Week 9 bye mixed in. Ridley is an every-week fantasy starter, even in tough matchups like this one. Miami ranks seventh in run defense and shut down Marshawn Lynch last week. … Shane Vereen continues to be a better late-season stash than Woodhead as Ridley’s primary backup, but Vereen’s 133 total yards and a touchdown on Thanksgiving night are not a sign of things to come, barring injury to Ridley. The embarrassing Jets didn’t even account for Vereen on his 83-yard score, and ultimately he’s just a change-of-pace back.

Ryan Tannehill broke out of his midyear rookie funk to complete 18-of-26 passes for 253 yards, a touchdown, and an interception in last week's win over Seattle. While Tannehill is not a legitimate fantasy option -- even against New England's No. 29 pass defense -- his improvement bodes well for Miami's chances of generating ball movement going forward. ... Brian Hartline runs most of his pass routes against left corners and will draw Aqib Talib on the majority of Sunday's snaps. While Talib can be prone to coverage busts, those are difficult to count on in fantasy leagues. Hartline is a shaky WR3. ... Davone Bess' 100-plus-yard effort against the Seahawks was just his second in his last 27 games. Bess doesn't offer enough upside or playmaking ability to warrant a stretch-run roster spot in standard leagues. He's a PPR backup. ... The one factor that could spike Bess and/or Hartline's Week 13 stats would be pass-happy comeback mode. Though it isn't a reliable fantasy factor, it’s certainly a possibility. Neither Hartline nor Bess has a favorable matchup, but it's not out of the question that one or both will emerge with a productive game.

Or maybe H-back Charles Clay will be peppered with targets if the Dolphins fall behind big early. Clay played a season-high 61.7 percent of Miami's offensive snaps versus Seattle, posting career highs in catches (6) and yards (84). Entering Week 12, Clay had exceeded 50 yards in 1-of-24 career games. Was last week's production a sign of stats to come? Your guess is as good as mine. The matchup certainly is right for a desperation start. New England has allowed the most fantasy points in the NFL to tight ends. ... The Dolphins' Reggie Bush-Daniel Thomas timeshare will square off Sunday with the Patriots' top-ten run defense. Bush's 87 rushing yards in Week 12 were a season high since Week 2, and Thomas' 60 were his most since Week 3. Bush has reclaimed the lead running back role in Miami, but is a risky flex option. Thomas should be on fantasy benches.

Score Prediction: Patriots 30, Dolphins 13

Minnesota @ Green Bay

Fresh off a Week 11 bye, the Giants shut down the Packers' passing game last Sunday night with a Big Nickel defense comprised of three safeties -- two back deep at all times -- and relentless front-four pressure. If the Vikings copy the approach this week, Aaron Rodgers should at least be ready for it. Unlike New York, Minnesota doesn't have two weeks to prepare for its away date with Green Bay, and is less equipped in the secondary to keep Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, James Jones, and a returning Greg Jennings contained. Rodgers can dink and dunk with the best of them, and the Vikings' Cover-2 defense will let him. Minnesota has surrendered an 18:6 TD-to-INT ratio and the ninth highest completion rate (64.4) to opposing passers. Expect a bounce-back game from Rodgers. ... In Jennings' return, look for the Packers to use a five-receiver weave with Nelson and Cobb at the top and Jones, Jermichael Finley, and Jennings rounding out the corps. Vikings top CB Antoine Winfield would ordinarily present a difficult draw for Cobb in the slot, but Jennings will see time there too and Green Bay showed against the Giants a willingness to move Cobb outside when matchups dictate it. Cobb has been the Packers' No. 1 offensive option and an every-week starter for the past two months. Don't think he's suddenly slowing down now. ... Rodgers' target distribution since Green Bay's Week 10 bye: Cobb 19, Nelson 9, Finley 8, Alex Green 5, Jones 4, James Starks 2, Donald Driver 1.

Owners need to put Jennings on a "wait-and-see" week against Minnesota. He won't play close to a full dose of snaps and seems unlikely to exceed five targets. Jennings could become a WR3 in the fantasy playoffs, but he's a ways off following in-season groin surgery. ... The book is out on Finley, and he's not a good football player. Finley could be, but he isn't. He may lose snaps with Jennings back and would be a poor fantasy play against a Minnesota defense allowing the tenth fewest receptions and yards to tight ends. ... Jones is also in danger of losing playing time, particularly when Jennings plays the slot and Cobb kicks outside to book end Nelson in three-wide sets. Although making snap decisions based on last week's stats is discouraged in this space, fantasy owners would be smart to take Jones' Week 12 goose egg seriously and sit him this Sunday. ... The Packers are going to have to find a running back in the offseason who can exploit running lanes, because they don't have one right now. If Green runs with shovels on his feet, Starks is working with cement blocks. Avoid Green Bay's backfield against the Vikings.

Feeding Adrian Peterson the football even if they fall behind on the scoreboard will be the Vikings' best -- perhaps only -- way of keeping this game competitive. The league's rushing leader through 11 weeks, Peterson has busted up Green Bay for 429 yards and three touchdowns on 80 carries (5.36 YPC) in these teams' last four meetings. Arguably running at a career-best level, Peterson has averaged six yards per carry or more in five straight games. ... Without Percy Harvin (ankle) playing -- and it certainly doesn't appear he will in Week 13 -- the Vikings' passing game has become a borderline fantasy wasteland. Jerome Simpson (three drops on five Week 12 targets), Michael Jenkins (nicknamed "Molasses Mike" for his lack of separation skills), and raw rookie Jarius Wright are all unreliable standard-league receiver plays. Wright does have ten catches for 114 yards and a touchdown in Harvin's two missed games and is deep leaguers' best bet, but he's about a top-50 option at best. ... Kyle Rudolph has a relatively difficult matchup with a Green Bay defense permitting the fourth fewest fantasy points to tight ends, but he at least figures to receive the bulk of Christian Ponder's pass attempts. Ponder's target distribution in Harvin's two missed games this year: Rudolph 18, Wright 15, Peterson 11, Simpson 9, Jenkins 7, Toby Gerhart 2.

Score Prediction: Packers 28, Vikings 14

Houston @ Tennessee

So much for Arian Foster’s outrageous workload costing him a step. Topping 5.0 YPC for the first time since mid-October and executing twice on red-zone runs, Foster exploited cutback lanes for lengthy jaunts into green grass throughout last Thursday's win over Detroit. Foster now returns from a ten-day rest period after the Thanksgiving game to face Tennessee's No. 27 run defense. There isn't a better fantasy running back bet in the league this week. ... The Texans expect Ben Tate to return from his balky hamstring in Week 13, but coach Gary Kubiak will make Tate earn his No. 2 job back from Justin Forsett. Tate will start out at the bottom of the depth chart. "I’ve got to probably get him going on some special teams," Kubiak said of Tate. "We’ve got to get his play back going. Justin’s done too good a job." Although Forsett was credited with an 81-yard TD against the Lions, the run should have been overturned on replay. Forsett has Jim Schwartz to thank for an ill-timed toss of his red challenge flag, costing Detroit points. Texans tailbacks behind Foster are not Week 13 fantasy options. Tate remains the better stretch-run stash. He will regain the top backup job soon enough.

Friday Update: Titans MLB Colin McCarthy has been ruled out for Week 13 due to a concussion. Tennessee has struggled at linebacker this year aside from SLB Akeem Ayers, and surely will continue to against the Texans.

After a slow start to the season, Andre Johnson is on an absolute tear with a nine-catch, 130-yard average over his last six games. Tennessee ranks 27th against the pass, has surrendered the third most passing touchdowns in football, and allowed Jaguars wideouts Cecil Shorts and Justin Blackmon to combine for nine catches, 167 yards, and two end-zone trips just last week. Johnson is a top-five WR1 in Week 13. ... Matt Schaub's target distribution since Houston's Week 8 bye: Johnson 53, Owen Daniels 25, Kevin Walter and Garrett Graham 20, Foster 14, James Casey 13. ... Keep in mind Daniels missed Week 10 due to a hip injury. In the Texans' pass-catching corps, Johnson and Daniels are every-week fantasy starters and the others are all waiver-wire material. ... Daniels has an attractive Week 13 matchup versus a Tennessee defense playing musical chairs at safety again. SS Jordan Babineaux was benched last week for the second time in the past month. The Titans have allowed the fifth most receptions and eighth most yards to tight ends. ... Back-to-back shootouts have propped up Schaub's production the past two weeks. When the Texans are playing the kind of football they want to play, however, Schaub is no more than a glorified game manager. Start Schaub if you believe this game will turn into a shootout. (Hint: It probably won't.)

Six starts into his NFL career, Jake Locker is an inconsistent if exciting playmaker with a ways to go. From snap to snap, you don't really know what you'll get. Locker did well to keep the offense moving in the first half of last week's loss to Jacksonville, despite a no-show from Tennessee's run game in the first two quarters. Locker was intercepted twice in the game's final three minutes, however, sealing the Jaguars' victory on ill-advised decisions. Locker's TD-to-INT ratio on the year still stands at a respectable 7:4, and he's averaging 7.3 yards per scramble. He's not a realistic standard fantasy league option yet, but does make for a worthwhile two-QB league play. ... While the impact of QBs coach Dowell Loggains' promotion to Titans offensive coordinator remains to be seen, we can expect some new wrinkles. It would make sense for Loggains to prioritize increased roles for Jared Cook and Kenny Britt. Outgoing playcaller Chris Palmer's attempts to do so proved fruitless, but Cook and Britt are Tennessee's top two passing-game weapons. Facing the Texans' top-six defense, this has the look of a wait-and-see week for fantasy owners considering starting Titans pass catchers. Tennessee will have a more intriguing matchup at Indianapolis in Week 14.

Friday Update: Texans top CB Johnathan Joseph has been ruled out for Week 13 due to a lingering hamstring injury. Houston's pass defense has been swiss cheese without Joseph this season. So upgrade Locker and Britt's fantasy matchups.

Kendall Wright has failed to clear 50 yards in five straight games. He can safely be dropped in 12-team leagues and replaced by a running back handcuff. Wright is unlikely to be an impact fantasy wideout down the stretch. ... Nate Washington is 41st in receiver scoring. Like Wright, he is an unattractive Week 13 option and will likely remain so throughout the fantasy playoffs. ... Chris Johnson broke off Week 12 gains of 31 and 22 yards against the Jags, and was held to 56 yards on his other 21 touches (2.67 average). Considering his electrifying performances before the Titans' Week 11 bye, fantasy owners should keep the faith. The Texans' defense has struggled all season to defend running backs who get into space, and Johnson is that kind of player. Despite a painfully slow start to the year, Johnson still ranks 11th among running backs in fantasy scoring.

Score Prediction: Texans 27, Titans 17

Jacksonville @ Buffalo

Resurrecting Jacksonville's offense from the subterraneous depths of the Blaine Gabbert "era," Chad Henne is playing with aggressiveness and urgency and challenging defenses downfield. It's fair to wonder whether the Jags might be AFC Wild Card contenders had Henne played from the start. Preying on an admittedly friendly schedule, Henne has completed 33-of-59 passes for 615 yards (10.42 YPA), and a 6:1 TD-to-INT ratio over his last two games. He gets another plus draw Sunday against Buffalo's No. 18 pass defense, a group that has played better lately but hardly intimidates. Armed with legitimately impact receivers, consider Henne a quality two-QB league starter until he slows down. ... The Jags' "X" receiver, Cecil Shorts has established himself as a big-play threat with vertical tools and run-after-catch ability. Shorts has at least 100-plus yards and/or a touchdown in five of his last six games, settling in as an every-week fantasy WR2. ... Whereas Shorts figures to draw improving Bills rookie CB Stephon Gilmore in coverage, Justin Blackmon arguably has the superior on-paper Week 13 matchup against LCB Leodis McKelvin and slot CB Justin Rogers. A physical, Boldinian possession receiver, Blackmon will take on shaky McKelvin on early downs and lightweight Rogers (5'11/181) in obvious passing situations. Shorts (hamstring) and Blackmon (groin) missed Thursday’s practice, though I suspect their absences were rest related. We’ll know more today.

Friday Update: Jaguars coach Mike Mularkey stated Friday that Blackmon and Shorts were held out of Thursday's practice as a "precaution." They both practiced on Friday, and Mularkey confirmed Blackmon and Shorts will play against the Bills.

Henne's updated target distribution on the season: Blackmon 24, Shorts 23, Marcedes Lewis 11, Rashad Jennings and Jalen Parmele 7. ... Although Lewis has been a distant third in the pecking order, he's a viable Week 13 desperation play with top-five combined tight end stats over the past three weeks. The Bills have been a middling defense against tight ends, allowing the 18th most fantasy points to the position. Lewis is never a 100-yard threat, but he's 6-foot-6, 275 and Henne's best red-zone target. ... Maurice Jones-Drew (foot) will miss least one more week, and Parmele (groin) is out for the year. Rashad Jennings rejoins the starting lineup, but coach Mike Mularkey is promising a "rotation" of running backs. Despite a favorable matchup with Buffalo's AFC-worst run defense, the Jaguars' backfield is a Week 13 fantasy situation to avoid. Jennings has 220 yards on his last 83 carries (2.65 YPC), and Mularkey has demonstrated a willingness to bench him for street free agents. Jennings would be a low-upside, high-risk flex play in fantasy.

Former Eagles DE Jason Babin is capable of improving the Jaguars' pass rush once he learns Mel Tucker's defense and earns a significant on-field role. He was claimed on waivers just this past Wednesday and seems unlikely to be more than a bit player in Week 13, if he's active at all. The Jags acquired Babin because they're tied for last in the league in sacks and silver platter clean pockets for opposing quarterbacks on a weekly basis. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a fantasy tease, but he has a favorable enough matchup to be worth a long look in two-quarterback leagues this week. Jacksonville ranks 28th against the pass. ... Finding a midseason stride, Stevie Johnson has at least five receptions in six of his last seven games and is coming off a six-catch, 106-yard effort at Indianapolis. He's a strong WR2/3 versus the Jaguars. ... The rest of Buffalo's pass catchers should be dropped for the fantasy stretch run. Slot man Donald Jones has failed to clear 20 yards in two straight games. Touchdown-dependent Scott Chandler has never surpassed TE2 value, and Week 13 foe Jacksonville has permitted the sixth fewest fantasy points to tight ends.

Friday Update: The Jaguars have ruled out CB Derek Cox due to a hamstring injury suffered in Week 12. Cox's absence makes Johnson a more attractive Week 13 fantasy WR2. Cox is Jacksonville's top cover corner, and would have mirrored Johnson on the majority of Sunday's snaps.

Coach Chan Gailey confirmed this week that C.J. Spiller will remain the Bills' starting running back going forward, and there will be an emphasis on increasing his workloads. "I still see C.J. getting the majority of the plays and I do not see anything changing our mind in the immediate future about that," Gailey said. "It balanced out this past week because of some throwing situations that we needed the protection in there. I think as time goes on we will see C.J. get more of the reps." Due to superior blitz-pickup ability, Fred Jackson wound up playing more snaps (32) than Spiller (29) in last week's loss to Indianapolis. Buffalo should have more running downs in a home game against the Jaguars. Facing Jacksonville's No. 29 run defense in Week 13, Spiller is a high-upside RB1 play. Jackson's role has diminished to the point that he's no better than a weekly flex option.

Score Prediction: Bills 24, Jaguars 21

Indianapolis @ Detroit

With the exception of Week 11 against the Packers, Matthew Stafford has played well in four of his past five games. His stats over that span: 132-of-224 for 1,673 yards (7.47 YPA), 9:4 TD-to-INT ratio and one rushing score. Indianapolis is defending the pass better recently than its No. 19 ranking suggests, but the Colts have continued to be exposable in the back end due to a litany of injuries. The Indy defense has allowed the tenth most passing touchdowns in football (19) while recording an NFL-low five picks. Back home at domed Ford Field, Stafford has reasserted himself as a top-eight fantasy quarterback despite maddening inconsistency. He has too much upside to bench in this matchup. ... Calvin Johnson has overcome Stafford's peaks and valleys to lead all wideouts in fantasy scoring over the past five weeks. Megatron is putting fantasy teams on his back. ... With Titus Young all but removed from the rest-of-season picture, rookie Ryan Broyles has emerged as second in line for targets in Detroit's receiver corps. Playing inside and out on Thanksgiving and flashing game-breaking run-after-catch skills, Broyles secured 6-of-12 targets for 126 yards, consistently getting early looks in Stafford's reads. Welker to Megatron's Moss, Broyles will draw favorable coverages and be difficult to bench in PPR leagues going forward. This is a promising young receiver with an awful lot of potential in Detroit's pass-first offense.

The Colts have allowed the fewest catches and yards to tight ends in the AFC, often smothering them with underrated SS Antoine Bethea. Brandon Pettigrew is used differently than most tight ends, however, running five-step buttonhook post-up routes rather than stretching the seam. He's a checkdown tight end. With Young inactive, Pettigrew was targeted 15 times last Thursday and is always a threat for 6-9 receptions. ... Mike Thomas and Tony Scheffler will be the Lions' No. 4 and 5 pass options moving forward, behind Megatron, Broyles, and Pettigrew. Thomas and Scheffler are not worth rostering for the fantasy stretch run. ... The Colts rank 20th versus the run and permit the league's fourth highest yards-per-carry average. They also lost starting RE Fili Moala to a torn ACL last week. Mikel Leshoure's rush-yardage numbers have underwhelmed of late, but he's found pay dirt in back-to-back weeks and this is a game where he could be Detroit's offensive focal point. Start Leshoure as an RB2 with high-scoring potential. ... Joique Bell broke off a 23-yard touchdown run on Thanksgiving Day, but is sharing No. 2 back duties with Kevin Smith. Bell is no better than a late-season roster stash. He'd need Leshoure to get hurt to matter in fantasy.

Andrew Luck has a favorable Week 13 matchup at Detroit, but the hype has exceeded his on-field performance. Luck has a 13:13 TD-to-INT ratio through 11 starts, and he's 30th in passer rating behind the likes of Christian Ponder, Jake Locker, and Blaine Gabbert. Luck ranks 11th in fantasy quarterback scoring in large part because he's scored five rushing touchdowns. Luck wouldn't be a poor fantasy start against the Lions, but he's just a back-end QB1. ... The Lions don't have a defensive back capable of staying with Colts "move" receiver Reggie Wayne, who plays X, Z, and the slot in Bruce Arians' offense. Wayne leads the NFL in receptions and is on pace for 1,608 yards, which would be his career high at age 34. He's the No. 6 fantasy wideout and a locked-in WR1 in this possible pass-heavy track meet. ... Luck's target distribution over the past month: Wayne 52, T.Y. Hilton 32, Donnie Avery and Dwayne Allen 26, LaVon Brazill 12, Vick Ballard 10, Donald Brown 5. ... Although third receiver Hilton plays fewer snaps than starter Avery, the target stats suggest the rookie has surpassed the injury-prone veteran as Luck's No. 2 pass option. At the same time, keep in mind Hilton's targets have been inconsistent (11, 1, 9, 3) over that span. Oozing with playmaking ability, Hilton offers upside but is ultimately a weekly WR3 roll of the dice.

54th in receiver scoring, Avery is exactly the kind of fantasy player owners should drop in favor of higher-upside late-season stashes. Avery might have a decent game against the Lions, but he's not a top-35 option and offers no prayer of consistency. ... Coby Fleener returns Sunday from a four-week shoulder injury, throwing a wrench into Allen's start-ability. Detroit has allowed the fifth most fantasy points to tight ends, but Allen is a more dicey, low-end TE1. ... Showing his true colors as a low-upside flex option only, Ballard is scoreless in four straight weeks and his pass-game role is dwindling. He lost significant second-half playing time to Brown in last week's win over Buffalo, and it's fair to wonder if the Colts will resume a 50:50 timeshare if Ballard doesn't pick it back up. The Week 13 matchup with Detroit's No. 21 run defense is favorable, but the Indy running back corps lacks an outstanding talent and has become increasingly muddled. Avoid the situation.

Score Prediction: Lions 30, Colts 24

Carolina @ Kansas City

That was the Cam Newton we all expected to see. Dissecting a talented if underachieving Eagles defense for four all-purpose TDs and 358 yards last Monday night, Cam hit chunk-yardage throws in the vertical pass game, set his feet and threw with precision in the short to intermediate, and used his legs to execute in scoring position. "It was impressive to watch," ESPN's Trent Dilfer observed afterwards. "I think (Week 12) showed the trajectory for Cam Newton is still very high." Newton is every bit capable of a lightning-fast finish, carrying owners to fantasy title games. The Chiefs' defense has allowed the sixth most points in the NFL this season, struggling especially versus the run. This is a great matchup for Newton the dual threat and top receiver Steve Smith. ... Kansas City continues to stubbornly leave top CB Brandon Flowers at left corner on virtually every defensive snap. Smith runs the majority of his routes versus RCBs, where much more burnable Jalil Brown and Javier Arenas play. Barring a dramatic and unforeseen change in the Chiefs' "sides" philosophy, Smith will get arguably his most favorable matchup of the year in Week 13.

Brandon LaFell missed Week 9 with a concussion. Cam's target distribution in the three games since: LaFell 22, Smith and Greg Olsen 21, Louis Murphy 8, Jonathan Stewart and Mike Tolbert 6, DeAngelo Williams 2. ... LaFell's role has seemingly grown; the bigger concern for him is Flowers' coverage. He's a shaky WR3. ... Olsen and LaFell have traded off all season as the No. 2 pass option in Carolina, rendering each other maddeningly inconsistent. Neither has a particularly inviting Week 13 matchup. Olsen is the No. 11 overall fantasy tight end and a back-end TE1. ... With Stewart battling a high ankle sprain, Williams will be thrust into the starting lineup against Kansas City's 24th-ranked run defense. I'd feel a lot better about Williams' spot-start prospects had he capitalized on previous opportunities like this. In Stewart's two missed early-season games, Williams combined for 49 rushing yards on 17 carries (2.88 YPC) and caught three passes for 28 yards, failing to score a touchdown. Williams is a dice-roll flex play with plenty of downside.

The Panthers' defense was shredded last week by Eagles seventh-round rookie Bryce Brown (19-178-2) and lost NT Ron Edwards to a season-ending elbow injury in the process. This is a tasty matchup for Jamaal Charles. After a disappointing midseason lull, Charles has strung together three consecutive games of 100-plus total yards, locking himself back in as an every-week RB1. Officially, Carolina ranks 25th versus the run. ... The rest of Kansas City's roster is a fantasy wasteland and is a virtual lock to stay that way. Now locked in as the Chiefs' starting quarterback, Brady Quinn has played two games start to finish this year and in neither has a Kansas City pass catcher exceeded 41 receiving yards. It's a shame, but Dwayne Bowe isn't even a WR3 at this point. Dexter McCluster, Tony Moeaki, and Steve Breaston should all be on fantasy waiver wires.

Score Prediction: Panthers 24, Chiefs 10

Seattle @ Chicago

Russell Wilson deserves kudos for a 12:2 TD-to-INT ratio and 7.97 yards-per-attempt average over his last six games, but the hot run is set up to meet its match at Soldier Field. The Bears' Cover-2 defense is designed precisely to take away what Wilson does best -- throw the deep ball -- and Chicago's relentless front four is likely to be too much for the Seahawks' pass protection-deficient offensive line to handle. Seattle will struggle to move the ball through the air on Sunday. ... Lovie Smith's defense has played the shadow game at cornerback all season long. In Week 13, expect to see LCB Charles Tillman mirror Sidney Rice all over the field, while RCB Tim Jennings is assigned to Golden Tate. These wouldn't be good matchups for the Seahawks' receivers, but Rice remains the best fantasy bet of the two. Although the bone chip in Tillman's foot isn't a major injury, it knocked him out of last week's game after 18 snaps and could be an issue again Sunday. ... Whether it's Zach Miller, Anthony McCoy, or Doug Baldwin, Seattle will need someone to step up in the Week 13 passing game beyond the outside receivers. Otherwise, it'll be a very long day.

Marshawn Lynch's matchup with the Monsters of the Midway at their place seems intimidating at first glance. The Bears have surrendered 521 yards on 102 carries (5.11 YPC) over their last four games, however, and are slowly but surely plummeting down the NFL's run-defense ranks. The odds are against Lynch lighting up Chicago for 100-plus yards and two TDs, but Seattle is good enough to keep this game competitive, allowing Lynch to rack up attempts. Versus a fading Bears run defense, start Lynch as a high-end RB2. ... Lynch has been a durable player in his career, but has a history of back problems and is on pace for nearly 340 carries. He's taking an awful lot of hits. As LeSean McCoy owners can attest, Lynch needs to be handcuffed with impressive rookie Robert Turbin. Even non-Lynch owners ought to give Turbin a lengthy look. The Seahawks face Arizona (No. 23 run defense) and Buffalo (No. 31) in the first two rounds of the fantasy playoffs.

The Bears' offensive line has been its Achilles' heel all year, and in Week 12 lost its best blocker when RG Lance Louis tore his left ACL. Seahawks-Bears projects as a low-scoring affair because neither team appears capable of keeping pressure off its quarterback. Facing a Seattle defense that ranks third against the pass and ninth in sacks, Jay Cutler is a low-end QB2. ... Seahawks CBs Richard Sherman and Brandon Browner will play Sunday as they wait one more week for their suspension appeals to be heard. Brandon Marshall remains matchup proof with Cutler force feeding him targets, but Chicago's alternative pass catchers stand little chance of providing viable production on a day where their quarterback may fail to eclipse 200 passing yards. Earl Bennett and Kellen Davis are waiver-wire fodder. Devin Hester is coming off a concussion, and Alshon Jeffery is out with a knee injury. ... Matt Forte limped badly off the field after re-injuring his right ankle in last week's win. While he returned to limited practices this week and is expected to play on Sunday, running back-rich fantasy owners ought to consider Forte no better than a Week 13 flex option. Forte already loses all goal-line carries to Michael Bush, and there are no guarantees on the Bears starter's health. Chicago is also facing Seattle's top-12 run defense. There are too many factors working against Forte this week for him to be considered a surefire fantasy starter.

Score Prediction: Bears 17, Seahawks 14

San Francisco @ St. Louis

Averaging 23.3 touches a game since St. Louis' Week 9 bye and 4.74 YPC on his last 94 carries, Steven Jackson has locked himself in as an every-week RB2/flex play even in difficult matchups. S-Jax stung San Francisco's No. 4 run defense for 127 total yards just three games ago, and the Rams have received multiple offensive line reinforcements since, with LT Rodger Saffold and C Scott Wells rejoining the starting lineup. Whereas Jackson has 70 offensive touches since the open date, rookie change-of-pace back Daryl Richardson has been reduced to eight touches per game. Richardson remains a worthwhile late-season fantasy stash who could reach flex-starter status in the event of a Jackson injury. But S-Jax's job and weekly workloads are the most stable they've been all year. ... Second-rounder Isaiah Pead, who was easily surpassed by Richardson in training camp and has been a third-stringer this season, has gone consecutive games without an offensive touch. Pead won't be a factor in St. Louis' backfield before 2013.

A dink-and-dunk quarterback for most of his first two seasons, Sam Bradford flashed his vertical passing chops in last week's win at Arizona. Bradford completed seven passes of 15-plus yards, including deep scoring strikes to Lance Kendricks and Chris Givens from 37 yards apiece. Bradford has been far too inconsistent for fantasy consideration outside of two-QB leagues, but the talent is there, and it is tantalizing. ... The Rams had passing success against San Francisco in the Week 10 tie, but repeating it seems like a long shot against the Niners' No. 2 pass defense. Danny Amendola (heel) is back on the shelf and off the Week 13 fantasy radar. Brandon Gibson hasn't cleared 50 yards since mid-October and is just a guy. Rookie Givens, who quietly leads the NFL in yards per reception, is the one Rams wideout worth WR3 consideration. Givens played 49-of-57 snaps (86 percent) in last week's win over the Cardinals and is consistently demonstrating big-play ability. Givens has at least 70-plus receiving yards and/or a touchdown in five of his last six games.

I found this note interesting, via ESPN's Adam Schefter from Wednesday's SportsCenter: "After the 49ers beat the Saints, they flew back to San Francisco, landed at 1:00 in the morning," Schefter reported. "Players day off, 'Victory Monday.' As 49ers employees pull up to the training facility the next morning -- seven hours later -- they notice one player on the field running sprints with 50-pound plates attached to his back, sprint after sprint. It turned out to be Colin Kaepernick. That gives you an idea of the type of work ethic he has." So not only has Kaepernick nailed down the 49ers' quarterback job with explosive playmaking ability, he's still working doggedly to hone his craft. A week after outscoring Peyton Manning, Matt Ryan, Andrew Luck, and Josh Freeman in fantasy points, Kaepernick is a low-end QB1 at St. Louis with top-five upside if the Niners loosen the reins a bit. Run-first offense and game-controlling defense are the only factors working against him. ... Kaepernick's updated target distribution on the year: Vernon Davis 14, Michael Crabtree 13, Mario Manningham 11, Randy Moss 7, Delanie Walker 7, Frank Gore 5. ... Davis' Week 12 goose egg was unfortunate. The best way for fantasy owners to respond is by starting him against the Rams. Kaepernick has still thrown to Davis more often than any Niners pass catcher, and St. Louis has allowed the sixth most receptions and seventh most yards in the league to tight ends. After his Alex Smith comments this past week, Kaepernick may prioritize getting Davis the ball.

San Francisco will catch a big Week 13 break if Rams RE Robert Quinn's concussion sidelines him for Sunday's game. Quinn leads St. Louis with 8.5 sacks, emerging as an elite outside-edge rusher in his second year. ... The Kaepernick-Smith controversy understandably generates more headlines, but the 49ers have maintained a run-first offense amid the quarterback quandary. Their run-to-pass ratio is 60:48 in Kaepernick's two starts, and San Francisco may lean even more heavily on Gore with Kendall Hunter (Achilles') done for the year. The Rams have allowed the third most rushing touchdowns in the NFL this season. Gore is an RB1. ... The run-heavy philosophy keeps the ceiling low on Crabtree, Moss, and Manningham. Crabtree is a respectable week-to-week WR3, but lacks upside with one 100-yard effort over his last 19 games. Moss has been quiet all season and is coming off a catch-less week. Manningham is the No. 3 pass option in an offense that ranks 31st in pass attempts. The Rams' defensive strength is secondary play, so beyond Davis there isn't a locked-in fantasy starter among Niners pass catchers in Week 13.

Score Prediction: 49ers 23, Rams 17

Arizona @ NY Jets

Larry Fitzgerald's production amid musical-chair quarterbacks has been incredibly frustrating, but glass-half-full fantasy owners have at least one reason for Week 13 optimism. Whereas most defenses have designed bracket coverage -- essentially a triple team -- to eliminate Fitz from Arizona's offense, Rex Ryan will leave him singled up versus Antonio Cromartie. Cromartie has been terrific this season, but it's a battle Fitzgerald can win. He's still just a WR3 with a 39.4-yard average over his last five games. ... Rookie Ryan Lindley has thrown 72 passes. His target distribution on the season: Fitzgerald and Andre Roberts 17, Rob Housler 11, William Powell 9, Early Doucet and Michael Floyd 6, La'Rod Stephens-Howling 4. ... Roberts' team-high 13 targets and nine catches for 92 yards in Week 12 were likely a mirage against the Rams, and he won't be a recommended WR3 versus the Jets' top-seven pass defense. Roberts missed all of practice this week with an ankle injury. He's listed as questionable for Week 13. ... In St. Louis, Housler posted career highs in targets (9), catches (8), and yards (82) and remains an interesting long-term tight end prospect with legit seam-stretching ability at 6-foot-5, 250 and 4.55 wheels. Last week's production is still an unreliable indicator of this week's stats with erratic Lindley under center.

Beanie Wells scored two quick touchdowns in his first game back from I.R./designated for return, but his on-field performance was less impressive than the fantasy point total might indicate. Wells ran sluggishly, gaining 37 yards on his last 15 carries (2.47 YPC) and admitted afterwards that he's still trying to get his football legs back. He did not play in the passing game. The possibility that Wells might get 20 carries against New York's bottom-three run defense puts him on the flex radar, but playoff-minded fantasy owners should be able to do better. Not helping matters is C Lyle Sendlein's year-ending MCL tear. Wells is still running behind perhaps the NFL's poorest run-blocking line. ... Due to an alleged rib injury, Stephens-Howling lost his passing-down job to Powell in last week's loss to the Rams. "Hyphen" played six snaps; Powell got 40. (Beanie played 30.) The Arizona backup job behind Wells likely is fluid, but it's not worth pursuing in fantasy football.

Mark Sanchez threw for 301 yards in last week's embarrassing, blowout loss to the Patriots on Thanksgiving. Odds are he won't have pass-only comeback mode to inflate his stats this week. The Cardinals' offense can't score points, and their defense brings heat, ranking fifth in the league in sacks and fourth versus the pass. Sanchez would be a poor two-quarterback league play. ... Jeremy Kerley is the lone Jets wideout worth Week 13 fantasy consideration on the heels of a seven-catch, 86-yard effort against New England. Recovered from his hip and hamstring injuries, Kerley is a viable, if low-upside WR3 in PPR leagues. ... The Cardinals have permitted the fewest receptions and second fewest yards to tight ends in the league this year. Dustin Keller is a shaky, borderline desperation TE1. ... Arizona's defense gets upfield and schemes pressure via DC Ray Horton's zone blitzes, but it's not a great run-stopping unit. The Cards rank 23rd versus the run. Unfortunately, the Jets have an even time split at running back that saps the fantasy appeal of Bilal Powell and Shonn Greene. Powell and Greene would both be bottom-barrel flex options.

Score Prediction: Cardinals 14, Jets 13

4:05PM ET Game

Tampa Bay @ Denver

Surely pleased with himself for bolting San Diego this past offseason, Vincent Jackson has moved on to greener, more hopeful pastures as a Buccaneer. He just can't escape archnemesis Champ Bailey on the schedule. V-Jax's stat lines in his last seven meetings with the future Hall of Fame corner, beginning with most recent: 2-25, 3-34, 4-56, 4-46-1, 2-47, 6-73, 4-46. Rounding up, it's a four-catch, 47-yard average with one touchdown in seven tries. There is no question that Bailey has historically had Jackson's number. At the same time, Jackson has never played at this high a level, both on the field and in the box scores. In Week 13, V-Jax has the appearance of a risky WR2/3 as opposed to the WR1 he's been all season. ... Assuming Bailey shadows Jackson -- and there is no guarantee, even if it seems like an obvious move by Denver -- Mike Williams will have the best matchup among Tampa Bay pass catchers. Although Williams' production has slowed to a halt of late, he's dropped just one pass over his last six games and his on-field performance hasn't noticeably fallen off. He'll be a low-end WR3 option, matching up with Broncos CB Chris Harris on early downs and diminutive Tony Carter in passing situations. Harris and Carter have been an effective duo this year, but I like my odds against their coverage long before Bailey's.

I don't like this matchup at all for Josh Freeman, in part because the Falcons provided the rest of the league with a blueprint for slowing down Tampa's run-based vertical offense just last week. Ordinarily a soft run-defending team, Atlanta sold out to stop Doug Martin en route to a year-low 2.38 YPC and got Freeman out of his comfort zone. Freeman resumed missing open receivers just as he did early in the season, and failed to throw a touchdown pass for the first time in 2012. I think Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil will wreak havoc in the trenches, and Denver's secondary is playing well enough to prevent much separation by Jackson and Williams. I expect Freeman to struggle in Week 13. ... A big day from Martin is the one way Tampa Bay can stay competitive in this game. He's certainly capable of it. Martin has at least a touchdown and/or 100-plus total yards in seven straight weeks, surging to No. 2 among running backs in fantasy scoring. Martin is an every-down back, so he'll stay in the game and rack up catches if the Bucs fall behind. ... Dallas Clark's pass-game role has grown in recent weeks, although he's still a less than 50-percent player in the offense due to shortcomings as a run blocker. The Bucs remain a run-first team. Denver has allowed the second most fantasy points to tight ends, but Clark is a desperation play.

A healthy scratch since Week 2, Knowshon Moreno came off the weekly street-clothes list to dominate Denver's backfield in snaps (55-of-64) and touches (24) during last week's win over the Chiefs. Proceed with caution, fantasy owners. Moreno's mediocre talent is to blame for his failure as a former first-round pick, and Broncos playcaller Mike McCoy likely won't blink at pulling him for Ronnie Hillman or Lance Ball should Moreno struggle against Tampa's No. 1 run defense. This is a fluid situation. Moreno is a dicey flex option with no guarantees on production or workload moving forward. ... The Broncos are much more likely to move the ball offensively through the air than on the ground in Sunday's game. Bucs top CB Eric Wright's four-game suspension has kicked in, and Tampa Bay's pass defense has ranked last in the league even with Wright in the lineup. Look for Demaryius Thomas to square off with Bucs RCB E.J. Biggers, while Eric Decker draws undrafted rookie LCB Leonard Johnson. Both Denver wideouts are strong Week 13 fantasy plays, but Decker has the superior matchup of the two. Johnson has been lit up by Danario Alexander (5-134-1), Brandon LaFell (5-93-1), and Julio Jones (6-147-1) the past three weeks.

Jacob Tamme has managed four receptions in back-to-back games, but his snap count remains a major issue. He only plays in obvious passing situations, and not even all of them. Pro Football Focus has charted Tamme with 53-of-138 snaps (38.4 percent) the past two games, which is a major concern for his consistency. While the Bucs allow the 12th most fantasy points to tight ends, Tamme and Joel Dreessen should be viewed as waiver-wire fodder by competitive owners. ... Slot receiver Brandon Stokley gets significantly more playing time than Tamme and is a better bet for No. 3 pass-option production in Denver's offense. He'd still be an awfully low-upside WR3 week to week. Because this matchup is so attractive, deep leaguers ought to give Stokley a long look against Tampa Bay, however. ... Peyton Manning is the No. 5 overall fantasy passer, behind only Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Robert Griffin III, and Aaron Rodgers. Aside from RG3, it's the usual suspects at quarterback this year. Start Peyton in the most favorable matchup he'll get all season.

Score Prediction: Broncos 28, Bucs 20

4:25PM ET Games

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore

Per ESPN's Bob Holtzman, here are Pittsburgh's baseline offensive stats with Ben Roethlisberger out of the lineup the past two weeks: 28 possessions, 14 punts, 11 turnovers. ESPN's Holtzman, Adam Schefter and Ed Werder, Ed Bouchette of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, and the Beaver County Times all reported this week that Big Ben is unlikely to play at Baltimore. That's a cavalcade I wouldn't bet against. While this year's Ravens defense isn't as dominant as it's been in seasons past, Mike Wallace, Heath Miller, and a now-healthy Antonio Brown are all low-ceiling fantasy options with high bust risk with Charlie Batch under center. Batch truly was that bad in last week's lost to Cleveland. It's unfortunate, but these kinds of things happen every year and fantasy owners' best approach is to just avoid them. If it is reported Sunday that Ben has miraculously recovered and will play -- a possibility considering Roethlisberger's history -- immediately upgrade Wallace, Miller, and Brown. That just appeared very unlikely as this column was written Friday morning.

Friday Update: Welp, you can forget about that miraculous recovery. The Steelers have. Roethlisberger was formally ruled out for Week 13 when Friday's final injury report was released, and Batch will get another start. If Batch plays as poorly as he did in last week's loss to the Browns, we may even see some Brian Hoyer.

Another factor working against Pittsburgh's Week 13 offense will be seventh-round pick Kelvin Beachum's starting debut at right tackle. Mike Adams and Marcus Gilbert are out with ankle injuries, leaving guard-built Beachum (6'3/303) to block Ravens sack leader LOLB Paul Kruger. Regardless of whether or not Roethlisberger plays, Miller may be needed for frequent "help" blocks at the line of scrimmage. ... Coach Mike Tomlin this week demoted Rashard Mendenhall from starter to third string after two Week 12 fumbles. The Steelers will start Jonathan Dwyer versus Baltimore's No. 26 run defense. In addition to Beachum's blocking, concerns for Dwyer include Batch's inability to move the offense, Dwyer's minimal pass-game role, and his own Week 12 lost fumble. Another one could get Dwyer benched for Isaac Redman or rookie Chris Rainey. Dwyer is worth flex consideration as a candidate for 18-22 carries, but he isn't without risk and the reward doesn't look to be especially high, just breaking down Dwyer's fantasy matchup on paper.

Joe Flacco has been infinitely better at home than on the road, going 5-0 with a 66.5 completion rate, 10:3 TD-to-INT ratio, and 108.3 passer rating at M&T Bank Stadium this season. It's just difficult to imagine Flacco posting better than high-end QB2 stats against a Steelers team that ranks No. 1 in total defense and No. 1 versus the pass. Pittsburgh has also been targeting this game for SS Troy Polamalu's (calf) return. Flacco is a two-quarterback league starter and nothing more. ... The Steelers let usual RCB Ike Taylor shadow Torrey Smith in these teams' meeting two games ago, and Taylor held Smith to one catch for seven yards. Pittsburgh figures to employ a similar tactic in Week 13. If I'm a Smith owner, I'm looking for alternatives in both WR2 and WR3 slots. Smith is the No. 16 overall fantasy receiver, but he's been inconsistent and this is a very difficult matchup. ... Pittsburgh was comfortable letting Anquan Boldin rack up short catches over the middle in Week 11, and Boldin came away with eight grabs for 79 yards. Those are solid WR3 stats, but his lack of weekly scoring potential -- Boldin has one touchdown in his last 15 games -- keeps him in WR4 territory. Owners with designs on fantasy playoff runs should probably be aiming higher.

The Steelers and Ravens played to a 13-10 final two games ago. A relatively similar score should probably be expected if Roethlisberger doesn't dress. Pittsburgh has permitted the eighth fewest fantasy points to tight ends, and Dennis Pitta's role since early in the season has been game-plan specific. Pitta can be dropped by fantasy owners with true top-12 tight ends. ... To be perfectly frank, there is little to nothing that suggests Ray Rice is an especially strong Week 13 fantasy running back play, aside from the fact that he's Ray Rice. The Steelers are playing top-five run defense again, and held Rice to 40 yards on 20 carries in Week 11. Rice did pad his stats with five receptions for 53 additional yards, however, and versatility always props up the consistency of Baltimore's feature back. Perhaps downgrade Rice from RB1 to RB2 this week, but he's never seriously worth benching. ... Rice owners should all have rookie Bernard Pierce rostered at this point in the year; he's worth picking up for non-Rice owners, too. Pierce is averaging a crisp 4.32 YPC over his past nine games. He's be a legit RB2 for the stretch run if Rice suffered an injury.

Score Prediction: Ravens 17, Steelers 13

Cincinnati @ San Diego

Spearheaded by Defensive Player of the Year sleeper DT Geno Atkins (9 sacks) and contract-year RE Michael Johnson (8 sacks), the Bengals' defensive line is playing as well as any group in football right now. Cincinnati's front four destroyed Oakland's pass game in Week 12 by heaping constant pressure on Carson Palmer, both up the middle and off the edge. No AFC team has fielded a more disappointing offensive line than San Diego this season, and the mismatch in the trenches is a major concern for Philip Rivers' Week 13 outlook. With LT Jared Gaither gone for the year, Rivers is no longer playable outside of two-quarterback leagues. ... Cincinnati ranks a mediocre 17th in run defense, but Ryan Mathews has flatlined as an upside-lacking RB2/flex in San Diego's bottom-eight offense. In Norv Turner's previous four years as coach, the Bolts never ranked worse than 11th in total offense. Mathews hasn't helped himself with tentative running, seemingly more concerned with ball security than big gains. Perhaps this year's biggest fantasy disappointment, Mathews has failed to reach 4.0 yards per carry in five of his last six games.

Rivers' updated target distribution since Danario Alexander took over as a starter three games ago: Alexander 26, Malcom Floyd 18, Mathews 15, Antonio Gates 11, Ronnie Brown 10, Eddie Royal 8, Robert Meachem 3. ... Although Alexander didn't light up the Week 12 box score (5-74), he continued to show impressive leaping ability, a monster catch radius, and post-reception explosion. He's legit. It's also a good sign for a receiver when a slow week involves leading his team in targets and yards. Locked in as an every-week WR3, Alexander gets another favorable matchup in Week 13 versus Bengals 34-year-old LCB Terence Newman. ... Floyd has taken a backseat with DX's emergence, failing to clear 70 yards since Week 5. Floyd moved from Z receiver back to the X spot last week and will square off with Bengals top CB Leon Hall on the majority of Sunday's snaps if the position switch holds. With a difficult matchup and diminishing role, Floyd is a low-upside and non-recommended WR3 option. ... Like Mathews, Gates has fallen victim to a dysfunctional Chargers offense that can't protect its quarterback, turns the football over, and lacks a sustaining element in both the pass and running games. Gates is a fantasy bust. He does have an appealing on-paper Week 13 matchup versus a Cincinnati defense that surrenders the eighth most fantasy points to tight ends.

The Chargers lost a pair of key defenders in Week 12, as Pro Bowl candidate ILB Donald Butler and SS Atari Bigby suffered significant groin injuries that will shelve them against the Bengals. They'll be replaced, respectively, by Jonas Mouton and Brandon Taylor, both of whom have never played in an NFL game. San Diego has quietly fielded a top-ten defense this season, but it won't be at full strength on Sunday. ... The No. 7 overall fantasy quarterback, Andy Dalton has settled in as a reliable weekly starter as an impressive supporting cast quietly develops around him. We all know about A.J. Green, but new No. 2 wideout Mohamed Sanu is a fantastic complement as a chain-moving, sure-handed possession target who's paying dividends in the red zone. Sanu hasn't dropped a pass all year. ... As for Sanu's standalone fantasy appeal, he doesn't offer a whole lot despite the four touchdowns in his last three games. That scoring rate is obviously unsustainable. Until we see Sanu more regularly utilized between the 20s, he'll be WR4/5 material in 10- and 12-team leagues. ... Particularly with Bigby and coverage-asset Butler out, this has the look of a Jermaine Gresham game. Ravens TE Dennis Pitta racked up six catches against the Chargers last week, and Gresham may match up often with special teamer Corey Lynch and/or debuting rookie Taylor. Gresham is the No. 6 overall fantasy tight end on the year.

Friday Update: We talk him up, and he gets hurt. Coach Marvin Lewis revealed Friday that Sanu suffered a stress fracture in his foot during Thursday's practice and will miss the season's remainder. The Bengals will likely turn back to a rotation opposite Green, involving Brandon Tate, Marvin Jones, Andrew Hawkins, and perhaps even ineffective early-season starter Armon Binns. Sanu's injury essentially leaves behind a black hole at No. 2 receiver in Cincinnati, from a fantasy perspective. Jones has the best chance to emerge as a significant stretch-run contributor for the team.

Green moves around a lot, but he'll square off with Chargers LCB Quentin Jammer on most of Sunday's snaps. Slow of foot with little to no recovery speed, Jammer can neutralize guys like Eric Decker and Tampa's Mike Williams. Not A.J. Green. This is another mismatch in Cincy's favor. ... BenJarvus Green-Ellis is 27 and over halfway through his fifth NFL season. So, in all likelihood, last week's 19-129-1 game against a sieve-like Raiders defense wasn't indicative of a light flipping on in The Law Firm's career. Oakland is just plain bad. I still think you can count on the Bengals generating ball movement against the Chargers, particularly through the air, and that would set up red-zone chances for their lead running back. Butler and Bigby's absences make San Diego's top-five run defense appear less daunting, so consider Green-Ellis a respectable, if unavoidably low-upside flex option due to his uninspiring running ability. ... Cedric Peerman has quietly emerged as a worthwhile late-season running back stash. Peerman is averaging 8.3 yards per carry and can play in the passing game, which would make him a possible every-down back if Green-Ellis went down. "I didn’t think he’d be known for breaking long ones like he’s done," OC Jay Gruden said of Peerman this week. "But we are surprised about that. Just keep getting him more touches.”

Score Prediction: Bengals 28, Chargers 17

Cleveland @ Oakland

Weather Alert: Sunday’s forecast for The Coliseum is calling for winds in the 26-35 MPH range and a 100 percent chance of rain, with “potential for flooding.” It’s a Tropical Storm. Check Rotoworld’s Players News page for updates Sunday morning. The conditions may negatively impact pass routes in the Browns-Raiders game. A wet field may also be a concern for Darren McFadden’s balky ankle.

McFadden is expected to start versus Cleveland after missing the last three games with a high ankle sprain. The ideal fantasy approach for any player coming off an extended absence is to put them on a "wait-and-see" week in their first game back, and consider it a plus if they play well. If so, you'll know to start them in the next game. If not, you'll know they're bench fodder. Because Marcel Reece played so well in McFadden's place -- Reece is very clearly a better fit for OC Greg Knapp's zone-run scheme -- the Raiders plan to ease DMC into the lineup by rotating him with Reece. With mammoth DTs Ahytba Rubin and Phil Taylor both healthy, the Browns have also been defending the run well of late. They've held Steelers and Cowboys backs to 102 yards on 39 carries (2.61 YPC) over the past two weeks. So not only has the Raiders' backfield devolved into a timeshare, the backs don't have a great matchup. It is a Week 13 fantasy situation to avoid.

Friday Update: All throughout the week Raiders beat writers anticipated McFadden returning to the lineup Sunday, but on Friday the player himself was noncommittal about his Week 13 availability. "It's good, but not 100 percent yet," Knapp conceded when asked by reporters about McFadden's burst. A slew of arrows are pointing toward McFadden being a must-bench in fantasy leagues. If McFadden is deactivated Sunday, Reece would resume every-down back work. Knapp hinted Reece would get more snaps and touches even if McFadden plays.

There was no secret behind the Raiders' Week 12 passing-game woes. They had no prayer of protecting Carson Palmer against the Bengals. Cleveland doesn't have a slouch defense, either, ranking in the top 11 in sacks. Palmer should have a better day at home versus the 21st-ranked pass defense if weather doesn’t play a major role, but he's off the QB1 radar entirely at this point. ... Denarius Moore has two catches for 29 yards and a touchdown in his last eight quarters. The Raiders are struggling to get him the ball, and Browns top CB Joe Haden's shadow coverage won't make life any easier. I'd view Moore as a dicey WR3 option in Week 13. ... As the fantasy playoffs approach, Darrius Heyward-Bey can be dropped in standard leagues. On competitive teams, at least, DHB won't be a viable starter down the stretch. ... Although Cleveland has allowed the fewest fantasy points in the league to tight ends, owners shouldn't regard this as an impossible matchup for Brandon Myers. If Haden locks down Moore and Oakland struggles to run the ball -- they likely will if McFadden plays extensively -- Myers could end up being Palmer's go-to guy over the middle. Myers remains a low-end TE1.

Trent Richardson owners should be frothing at the mouth after homeless man's version of T-Rich BenJarvus Green-Ellis twice reset his career-long carry in last week's stomping of Oakland, en route to a 19-129-1 day. Richardson has twice the talent of Law Firm and is a top-ten running back against the Raiders' No. 28 run defense. ... Browns No. 1 receiver Josh Gordon has an attractive Week 13 matchup versus an Oakland defense that's even more porous in the back end. Receiver production is dependent on quarterback play, however, and Brandon Weeden has hit his Rookie Wall. He's failed to clear 6.5 yards per pass attempt since Week 6 and put together three touchdowns compared to four turnovers across his last four games. Weeden's failure to continue to improve is concerning both for his long-term NFL outlook and the immediate prospects of the players around him. ... Ben Watson and Jordan Cameron might form a relevant fantasy tight end if they combined their stats and playing time, but they cancel each other out. ... Greg Little started Cleveland's Week 12 loss to Pittsburgh, but finished with one catch for six yards. He's losing snaps to Mohamed Massaquoi (3-27) and can be confidently dropped in re-draft leagues. Behind Richardson, Gordon is the only Browns skill player worth fantasy consideration at this point.

Score Prediction: Browns 20, Raiders 17

Sunday Night Football

Philadelphia @ Dallas

Bryce Brown is the real deal, alright. Temporarily forgiving the seventh-round rookie for two lost fumbles due to careless if correctable ball-carrying technique, Brown's cutting ability, turbo jets down the sideline, and physical inside running jumped off the tape in Philly's Week 12 loss to Carolina. "His skill set is very similar to someone like Ben Tate," NFL Films' Greg Cosell observed of Brown this week. "He's a very decisive, downhill runner with natural power and short-area burst." Brown played ahead of Dion Lewis in passing situations against the Panthers, operating as an every-down back and hogging 23 of the Eagles' 29 backfield touches. Now facing a sagging Cowboys run defense that has lost both starting inside linebackers to injured reserve, Brown is a locked-in top-15 running back play on Sunday Night Football. ... LeSean McCoy remains in Phase 1 of his concussion testing and isn't going to play anytime soon. Brown is capable of being a stretch-run fantasy hero. Lewis was only a change-of-pace back against Carolina, rushing five times for 24 yards. They were his first touches of the year. Lewis is not worth rostering. ... Nick Foles' updated target distribution on the season: Jeremy Maclin 21, DeSean Jackson 17, Riley Cooper 14, Brent Celek 13, Clay Harbor 9, Brown 7, Stanley Havili and Damaris Johnson 6.

For perhaps the first time in Andy Reid's soon-to-end tenure as head coach, the Eagles played run-first offense in last week's loss to the Panthers. Falling behind can change that, but entering this game we can expect a low-volume passing approach from Philadelphia. With Foles struggling mightily, it's the Eagles' best (only?) option. ... Cooper will start for Jackson, who's lost for the year with fractured ribs. Maclin will be Philly's No. 1 receiver against Dallas' top-eight pass defense. Because Foles has played so poorly, Maclin is a gambling man's WR3 option. Cooper, Johnson, and Jason Avant should be left on waiver wires. ... Celek secured 2-of-3 targets versus Carolina, and Pro Football Focus charted him with only 15 pass routes run. Celek blocked on his other 30 snaps. The Eagles need Celek to stay in and protect their rookie quarterback because their offensive line can't on its own. Celek is not a recommended Week 13 fantasy play.

The Eagles' defense plays without discipline, and there are increasing questions about whether they're playing hard at all. They certainly don't tackle like they're going all-out. "There's just far too many breakdowns," Cosell added. "... Things have gotten far worse since Todd Bowles has taken over. Their defense, which was not the issue when Juan Castillo got fired, has now become the issue." Tony Romo has completed 116-of-173 passes (67.1 percent) for 1,284 yards (7.42 YPA) and a 7:2 TD-to-INT ratio over his last four games. With a favorable matchup Sunday night, Romo is a sensible QB1 streamer. ... On an eight-game tear, Dez Bryant has improved his fantasy ranking to No. 9 among receivers. He's the locked-in, every-week WR1 he was supposed to be. Bryant dropped 87 yards and a score on the Eagles in these teams' November 11 meeting, despite only five targets. He's been a much bigger part of the game plans since, seeing 15 and 11 targets in the two ensuing weeks. Philadelphia's defense has allowed a 20:7 TD-to-INT ratio, and Dez will continue to be a good bet to score in RCB Nnamdi Asomugha's coverage. ... Jason Witten has caught six or more passes in eight straight games and had eight grabs in the Week 10 meeting. Witten's playmaking ability has faded -- he's averaging a career-low 8.7 yards per catch with one touchdown on the season, but he's still an every-week starter. He's on pace for 120 receptions.

Battling a balky hip and hamstring and simply not playing as fast as he used to, Miles Austin has taken a clear backseat to Bryant and Witten in Dallas' passing attack. Scoreless with a 41.5-yard average over the past month, Austin was held to 32 by the Eagles in the Week 10 game. He's just a WR3 option. ... The Cowboys' third receiver job has devolved into an unpredictable rotation of Kevin Ogletree, Cole Beasley, and Dwayne Harris. It's an obvious fantasy situation to avoid. ... DeMarco Murray finally returns from his six-game absence on Sunday night. While his matchup is favorable versus Philadelphia's No. 18 run defense, keep in mind Murray will need time to get his wind and legs back after so much missed action, most of which was spent off the injured foot and without conditioning. He's probably headed for 12-15 carries, with Felix Jones and perhaps some Lance Dunbar mixed in. Murray's fantasy owners would have to be pretty shorthanded at running back to start him with any confidence. His effectiveness and workload are both question marks.

Score Prediction: Cowboys 23, Eagles 20

Monday Night Football

NY Giants @ Washington

In addition to shutting down Aaron Rodgers' juggernaut passing attack, the Giants returned from their Week 11 bye last Sunday night with a run-based offensive approach. They recorded a 32:30 run-to-pass ratio, employing an even rotation of Andre Brown and Ahmad Bradshaw. While Brown fractured his left fibula midway through the fourth quarter, Bradshaw ran with newfound energy and burst, piling up 119 total yards and a touchdown. With Brown out of the picture, Bradshaw can expect an increased workload and should be locked into fantasy lineups as an RB2 with upside versus a Washington run defense that isn't as imposing as its No. 3 ranking suggests. ... The Brown injury finally clears a path for first-round pick David Wilson to receive more touches, although he'll be no better than a change-of-pace back barring injury to Bradshaw. Wilson is still one of the top late-season lottery ticket stashes in fantasy football right now. ... Coming off the open date, the Giants also emphasized re-involving Hakeem Nicks. Targeted a team-high 13 times -- next closest was Victor Cruz with six -- Nicks racked up five catches for 77 yards and a touchdown and can be trusted as a WR2 against Washington's No. 31 pass defense. Pressing the issue against the Packers, Eli Manning targeted Nicks four times on end-zone fades alone.

Eli didn't quite look all the way back from his "tired arm" against Green Bay, but box scores don't discriminate. He threw three TD passes and has a favorable Week 13 matchup. Manning is a strong two-quarterback league start and viable QB1 streamer. ... Victor Cruz dismantled the Giants for seven catches, 131 yards, and a touchdown in these teams' earlier-season meeting. Expect him to match up often with burnable DeAngelo Hall on Monday night. ... Martellus Bennett racked up 79 yards on five grabs in the aforementioned Week 7 Giants-Redskins game, and Washington has allowed the third most fantasy points to tight ends on the season. Although Bennett's production has waned significantly since early in the year, he's still on the radar for owners scrambling at his position. ... Rookie Rueben Randle caught his first career touchdown pass against Green Bay, playing extensively only because Domenik Hixon (ankle) was injured. Avoid the Giants' third receiver in Week 13 fantasy lineup decisions.

Over his past two games, Robert Griffin III has completed an otherworldly 34-of-43 passes (79.1 percent) for 511 yards (11.8 YPA), and an 8:1 TD-to-INT ratio. He's chipped in 113 yards on 18 carries (6.28 YPC). On the season, Griffin has accounted for 22 TDs and only six turnovers. He has consistently produced against tough defenses, ranks third in fantasy quarterback scoring, and should be permanent-markered into Week 13 fantasy lineups regardless of how well the Giants' defense played last week. ... Pierre Garcon's snap count didn't change dramatically from Week 11 to 12. Garcon played 39.7 percent of the downs against the Eagles two weeks ago. On Thanksgiving, Garcon played 44.6 percent. He had three catches for five yards in Week 11 versus a bad Philadelphia defense. Garcon broke off 93 yards and a touchdown on five receptions last week against the Cowboys' top-eight pass defense. We try to deal in logic in the weekly Matchups columns, but nothing about Garcon's production curve is logical. He's a dice-roll WR3 with big upside, but obvious downside on Monday night. ... Nothing is logical about Santana Moss' scoring binge, either. Moss is playing the fewest snaps of his career, averaging just over four targets per game, and yet he's scored seven touchdowns -- Moss' most since the 2005 season. A touchdown-dependent player with low weekly reception and yardage ceilings, start Moss at your own risk.

Leonard Hankerson, Logan Paulsen, streak-route specialist Aldrick Robinson, and Josh Morgan are all waiver-wire fodder. One or two may have a productive fantasy game down the stretch, but it won't be predictable to the extent that you know to start that guy in that given week. Just move on now. ... When the Redskins and Giants met in Week 7 earlier this season, Alfred Morris clicked off 120 yards on 22 carries (5.45 YPC). New York's glaring defensive weakness this year has been versus the run, where it ranks 16th in the league and generously surrenders 4.42 yards per carry. Morris' lack of usage in the passing game has rendered him more RB2 than top-12 option, but this is a plus matchup and his ball-carrying workload is never problematic. Confidently start ALF in his Monday Night Football debut. ... Morris' backup is Evan Royster, who is worth stashing over non-starter tight ends and wide receivers this late in the fantasy season. My top-ten running back stashes going forward: 1) Robert Turbin 2) Royster, 3) Bernard Pierce, 4) Daryl Richardson, 5) David Wilson, 6) Ben Tate, 7) Shane Vereen, 8) Joique Bell, 9) Toby Gerhart, 10) Cedric Peerman. You never know: Perhaps one of these guys will become the next Bryce Brown.