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Not in a good place: Trump and the state-by-state approval polls

If the 2020 election is an up-or-down referendum on whether Americans want four more years of Donald Trump as president, he has little chance whatsoever of winning re-election.

Of course, his national approval rating has been locked in the low 40s (or occasionally the high 30s) during most of his term. But the Electoral College is a state-by-state affair. I base my strong statement above on state-by-state approval polls, just released by Morning Consult, compared to the results of the 2016 election in those states.

The overall impression these results give is consistent with what most reputable pollsters are finding. Nothing magical about this one poll, except that Morning Consult’s online polling technique enables it to get fresh state-by-state results every month or so at a reasonable cost. The latest numbers from each state, discussed below, are from July.

Trump currently has an under-water approval rating (meaning not just that his approval number is below 50 percent, but that he has more disapprovers than approvers, disregarding those who had no opinion) in in enough states to cost Trump re-election by a healthy margin. He has a net negative approval rating in more than enough states to support my opening statement, and he is way under water in many of them.

Let’s get some important caveats out of the way, before I give you the numbers. Some people who disapprove of Trump will vote for him anyway, if he can convince them that his opponent would be even worse. He has kind of a knack for that. Some will vote for minor candidates, and those votes aren’t reflected in this analysis (but, of course some of those third-party voters might also prefer Trump to his Democratic opponent, so that one cuts both ways).

Turnout is another complication. Then there’s cheating, and intentional disfranchisement of eligible voters through various means at which Republicans demonstrated in 2016 they are good and are willing to employ.

But I stand behind my first sentence above: If the election is a referendum on whether people want four more years of Donald Trump (and elections involving an incumbent president are said to be heavily influenced by that logic), he’s not in a good place, based on these state-by-state Morning Consult poll numbers, as linked above and specified below.

Let’s get Minnesota out of the way. Although Trump didn’t carry Minnesota in 2016, Hillarious Clinton carried it by just a 1.5 percent margin of the popular vote. The latest Morning Consult poll (which is consistent with most other polls of Trump’s approval in Minnesota) shows him below water (more disapprovers than approvers) by 14 percentage points. Fourteen points. I know people talk about Minnesota as a possible Trump pickup, based mostly on how close he came in 2016 (although when they make that argument they tend to disregard Democrats’ very strong showing up and down the ballot in the 2018 midterm). I don’t call them dumb. I can’t be sure they’re wrong. But Trump’s net-14-percent negative approval rating will be hard to overcome.

That’s the only state I’ll mention in this piece that Trump lost in 2016. (I do so for the obvious reason that I and most MinnPost readers live here.) The rest will all be states Trump carried.

Let’s do the three famous “blue wall” states that Trump carried, without which he would not have won his electoral college majority in 2016: Pennsylvania, Michigan and our neighbor, Wisconsin.

Pennsylvania: Trump beat Clinton in 2016 by 0.8 percent of the vote in Pennsylvania. His current Morning Consult approval rating there: Trump is eight points under water. Eight percent higher disapproval than approval.

InMichigan, it’s worse for Trump. He carried Michigan by just 0.23 percentage points. He’s currently 11 points under water in approval among Michiganders, according to Morning Consult. Eleven points. That’s a lot of people he has to convince that he’s the lesser of two evils.

Wisconsin. Still worse for Trump. Carried it by 0.75 percentage points. Under water by 14 points. Fourteen points under water.

If Trump carried all the rest of the states he carried in 2016, but lost those three, he would lose the electoral vote. But they aren’t the only states he carried in which he has an under-water approval rating.

And lastly, one that Trump carried narrowly, and is now under water approval-rating-wise, but just barely:

NorthCarolina: Trump carried by 2.65 points. Current approval: One point under.

I’m certainly not putting North Carolina in the bag for whomever the Democrats end up nominating. I’m not putting any of the states mentioned above in the bag. Nothing is in the bag. The election will not be an up or down vote on Trump. It will be a choice between Trump and a specific Democrat.

Part of Trump’s dark genius is to demonize whomever it is to his advantage to demonize. He will assign an insult nickname. He will mock their appearance. He will lie. He will frighten. He might be able to get some people who disapprove of him to vote for him as the lesser evil. He might get some who would never vote for him to stay home by convincing them that the alternative is no better. He might lose both the popular and the electoral vote and refuse to leave office, claiming the vote was rigged. I’m just saying, based on current polling, he’s in a lot of trouble in a lot of states he needs to carry.

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Scaramucci: GOP may need to replace Trump for 2020

"We are now in the early episodes of 'Chernobyl' on HBO, where the reactor is melting down and the apparatchiks are trying to figure out whether to cover it up or start the clean-up process," Scaramucci, who was ousted from his job after 11 days, told the outlet.

"A couple more weeks like this and 'country over party' is going to require the Republicans to replace the top of the ticket in 2020," he said.

Scaramucci, a prominent Republican donor, said that if Trump "doesn't reform his behavior, it will not just be me, but many others will be considering helping to find a replacement in 2020."

"Right now, it's an unspeakable thing," he continued. "But if he keeps it up, it will no longer be unspeakable. The minute they start speaking of it, it will circulate and be socialized. We can't afford a full nuclear contamination site post 2020."

Scaramucci's comments to Axios follow him last week calling Trump's visit to El Paso, Texas, to meet with survivors of a mass shooting a "catastrophe."

Trump fired back soon after, saying that Scaramucci "knows very little about me other than the fact that this Administration has probably done more than any other Administration in its first 2 1/2 years of existence."

Former Massachusetts Gov. William Weld is the only Republican to announce a challenge to Trump for the nomination so far.

Any challenger would likely face long odds in a primary bid. The Republican National Committee has already voted to express its “undivided support” for Trump as its 2020 nominee, and Trump's reelection campaign has staffed up with party insiders to line up its delegate strategy well ahead of the party's nominating convention.

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The "polls".....many anyhow....had Trump losing every State in 2016.....the MSM can spew all the garbage they want......trying to will it to be "real"........in the end fake...is fake! CL

Scaramucci, Trumps former communications director, saying Trump might need replacing in 2020 is not fake. You and Trump might want it to be! Lol. I love how anything that puts Trump in a bad light is fake. You guys keep saying everything is fake if it makes you feel better. Deep down you know better.

That goes both way..Everything Trump does is Evil to you Never Trumpers...You wanna get real...I'll get Real when 2020 rolls around Trump will be elected again as the POTUS...Thinking other wise is just plain fantasy for the Never Trumpers...8 years of Crying 24/7...

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That goes both way..Everything Trump does is Evil to you Never Trumpers...You wanna get real...I'll get Real when 2020 rolls around Trump will be elected again as the POTUS...Thinking other wise is just plain fantasy for the Never Trumpers...8 years of Crying 24/7...

Will Stormy be at inauguration number 2?.....Laughing 24/7. As always, just a question.

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Forget it Caddieman…. They only believe polls they agree with... They still say Trump won... We all know he was appointed by a system even he didn't like. Popular vote means nothing when appointees run the electoral college.

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‘It’s like you have this disease’: Trump supporters in New York complain they cannot admit they back president

Staff Reporter,The Independent3 hours ago

Supporters of Donald Trump have claimed they are being forced to hide their support for the president in parts of New York state.

Backers of the president in the Hamptons, an affluent area in Long Island, have complained they cannot admit their allegiances publicly without fearing reprisals.

“It’s like you have this disease and people want to run away from you,” a shop owner in Southampton told the New York Post. adding that Trump supporters in the area are “all in the closet” and have to lie to people around them.

An art consult who said they were also a fan of the president said: “It’s a matter of survival. We are hitting a very dark and strange place as a country."

Most of Suffolk County, which includes the Hamptons, supported Mr Trump in the 2016 US presidential election. He won some 52 per cent of the vote there, compared to Ms Clinton’s 45 per cent.

Another person told the newspaperthat he was afraid of being attacked if found wearing a MAGA hat, claiming “you really need to fear physical violence.”

The article did not cite any specific incidents of Democratic violence or retaliation against Trump supporters in the area.

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Scaramucci, Trumps former communications director, saying Trump might need replacing in 2020 is not fake. You and Trump might want it to be! Lol. I love how anything that puts Trump in a bad light is fake. You guys keep saying everything is fake if it makes you feel better. Deep down you know better.

So you haven't addressed the mentioned "polls" in 2016.....were they right or wrong?

Then let's discuss how the DNC fixed the Primary so only HRC could represent the party......and screwed Bernie.....right or wrong?

So in the concept of illegally rigging an election....you have the MSM crying Russia, Russia, Russia......where the clear evidence clearly implicates the DNC...

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Will Stormy be at inauguration number 2?.....Laughing 24/7. As always, just a question.

GO RV, then BV

You speak truth when you question any of Trumps moral short comings....but what do they have to do with his running the country.....was JFK a crappy President because he couldn't resist anyone wearing a skirt.....how about Billy Bob....or the decades long affair Eisenhower had with his personal Secretary....there would be no US government if everyone who had committed some sort of immoral act was removed....... CL

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Forget it Caddieman…. They only believe polls they agree with... They still say Trump won... We all know he was appointed by a system even he didn't like. Popular vote means nothing when appointees run the electoral college.

B/A

If Trump didn't win.......why is he the one sitting in the Oval....running the Country?.....did I miss sonething?!

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‘It’s like you have this disease’: Trump supporters in New York complain they cannot admit they back president

Staff Reporter,The Independent3 hours ago

Supporters of Donald Trump have claimed they are being forced to hide their support system" rel="">support for the president in parts of New York state.

Backers of the president in the Hamptons, an affluent area in Long Island, have complained they cannot admit their allegiances publicly without fearing reprisals.

“It’s like you have this disease and people want to run away from you,” a shop owner in Southampton told the New York Post. adding that Trump supporters in the area are “all in the closet” and have to lie to people around them.

An art consult who said they were also a fan of the president said: “It’s a matter of survival. We are hitting a very dark and strange place as a country."

Most of Suffolk County, which includes the Hamptons, supported Mr Trump in the 2016 US presidential election. He won some 52 per cent of the vote there, compared to Ms Clinton’s 45 per cent.

Another person told the newspaperthat he was afraid of being attacked if found wearing a MAGA hat, claiming “you really need to fear physical violence.”

The article did not cite any specific incidents of Democratic violence or retaliation against Trump supporters in the area.

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If Trump didn't win.......why is he the one sitting in the Oval....running the Country?.....did I miss sonething?!

CL

As the polls correctly showed (although I know some can not admit it) she won the popular vote and he won the electoral vote. My only problem with the electoral college is those who represent it are appointed. So due to the fact one party or the other has an advantage in a state they control the entire process. The system is like many things outdated and needs revisiting.

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As the polls correctly showed (although I know some can not admit it) she won the popular vote and he won the electoral vote. My only problem with the electoral college is those who represent it are appointed. So due to the fact one party or the other has an advantage in a state they control the entire process. The system is like many things outdated and needs revisiting.

B/A

I for one am glad it is set up the way it is....those forefathers had some insight....

Using only the popular vote would mean people in the heartland of the country would have no say.....just think what more of a mess we might have if the Country ran parallel to NY and California.... CL

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I for one am glad it is set up the way it is....those forefathers had some insight....

Using only the popular vote would mean people in the heartland of the country would have no say.....just think what more of a mess we might have if the Country ran parallel to NY and California.... CL

I don't disagree it was a good system when it took people days if not weeks to get to town to vote. Perhaps they couldn't leave their farms to vote at all. The system was designed for a time when people couldn't jump in their car and drive 5 minutes to vote. But it is antiquated. That doesn't mean it can't be updated.

But let's be honest. When the impact of the left winning the house goes into effect and they start appointing their side to the electoral college, I bet you will see my point. There will be a shift in the paradigm and we will see what people think then.

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.I'll get Real when 2020 rolls around Trump will be elected again as the POTUS

End Quote

Hello Yota...I know you are sure of that and you ( and lots of others here on this Forum and also in the States and in other Countries of the world...which is absolutely legitimate and a very democratic thing of course) want that very much to occur and you're 100% positive about that result....And you ( and millions of others) could of course be totally right about that.....

I'll take my risks and I'd like to bet with you (symbolically) an Iraqi fil (1,000th part of a Dinar) that maybe won't be the case ...Don't honestly know if it's going to be another Republican or a Democrat who's going to win in 2020....Just not President Trump again

My concern though is how am I going to pay you in case you win and I lose the bet............I was thinking of a check or money order as I have the intention of honoring what I owe you in case of my defeat...Which most on this Forum, I'm sure, take for granted.....And that's alright too.....

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I don't disagree it was a good system when it took people days if not weeks to get to town to vote. Perhaps they couldn't leave their farms to vote at all. The system was designed for a time when people couldn't jump in their car and drive 5 minutes to vote. But it is antiquated. That doesn't mean it can't be updated.

But let's be honest. When the impact of the left winning the house goes into effect and they start appointing their side to the electoral college, I bet you will see my point. There will be a shift in the paradigm and we will see what people think then.

B/A

I see someone is confused... Let me explain. The electoral college, (the system that put Trump in the white house over the popular vote), is made up of appointed people. The parties in your state get to pick who has a vote in the electoral college. So when republicans have more people controlling your state they pick?.... You guessed it republicans. Who vote?.... Yup you guessed it again, republican.

Now the democrats are picking up control and soon they will choose who votes for the electoral college. And yes sir you guessed it again, they will pick democrats who will vote for their party... So you see. It doesn't matter who you vote for. It matters who the electoral college votes for and what really matters is who picks the electorals for your state... GL