Last round of volumes we had a slightly low wk1 and slightly high wk2, so it’s looking like the reverse this time. wk1s are high this time, and so wk2s will be lower than last time. It usually balances out like that.

Spring update:Eromanga-sensei v1 sells 7951/1402, total 9,353. 13.1% under/3.1% overestimated. Event ticket. v1 will pass 10k, but 10k average looks unlikely unless v1 has a very long tail and v2+ drop very little. May be enough for #3 of spring, though Tsuki ga Kirei’s half-price, late-release boxset is a wild card.

Haine v1 sells 1943/3386, total 5,329. 61.9%/2.1% underestimated. Event ticket, so don’t expect the other volumes to sell this much. v2’s estimate is 2.5x less than v1’s.

Natsume s6 v1 sells 2851/1834, total 4,685. 14.2%/21.9% overestimated. Event ticket. This franchise is gradually slowing down, with this being a good 1k below s5’s event ticket v1wk1. But this is the 27th volume of anime to come out for this series over 9 years so impressive nonetheless.

Granblue v3 sells 20346/12459, total 32,805. Slightly higher than v2 in both formats, but weird stuff is expected due to the varying bonus codes in each volume.
v2 adds 471/437, total 39,078 in wk6, meaning it added 394 in wk5.

Deremas Gekijou v2 sells 9623/746, total 10,369. Obviously a hilariously huge event ticket drop, as expected (BDs dropped of course but in a sign that DVDs were all about the ticket, they went from 11,410 to 746), but the fact that a 3 min gag short moved >10k on its non-ticket disc is way more than I expected. Average could end up over 20k.

I’m still not super clear on the content of the special, so I don’t know if it was re-used material from the show (in which case this number wouldn’t be -too- weird) or an all-new episode (in which case this seems very low).

Either way I already expect s2 to sell a good deal less, unless they go nuts with event tickets. Even season one dropped a lot during its run (even ignoring the event ticket drop). I don’t expect anything like what happened with Shingeki, but I certainly don’t anticipate it being >60k again.

Loli fans went wild with that Eromanga sales ^^ i can already smell the 2nd season though you never know this days… Also i very sad for thoose sukasuka sales such an amazing anime and seeing thoose sales kinda crushed my heart and hopes for a possible sequel :/

Eromanga-sensei had a huge boost in novel sales and that’s all that matters. Sukasuka also had a boost, not enough to sell 200k in one month but yeah, a boost; so both animes fulfilled their purposes. Sukasuka is the kind of anime that hook possible readers so it was probably an one-season anime for starters.

While novel sales are very important, we shouldn’t overstate their importance either. Eromanga-sensei’s lead investor on the committee is Aniplex, the video disc company. Kadokawa is second so of course the novels matter, but Aniplex still does very much want to sell discs. I’m guessing they’re happy with these sales, especially in today’s market, but more never hurts.

That said, Kadokawa Shoten was leading the Sukasuka committee so yeah they’re definitely very interested in the novel (and manga adaptation) sales. Where do you see its boost, though? Did Kadokawa publicize any print run/shipment numbers? Oricon (with the caveat they’re always bad at print numbers) hasn’t shown them ranking.

Usual sales rankings outside Oricon from several sale sites, during the anime the serie definitely gained a bigger visibility, about it print numbers, it was announced that it surpassed 650k last month so I think that it’s a pretty good number. About Eromanga-sensei, I was speaking about the already successful novel boost and a second season possibility with that in mind, not denying the fact that disc sales matter, of course that the most the better.

To clarify, the “Kadokawa” here is the Ascii Media Works division, not Kadokawa Shoten. That doesn’t mean that they don’t want to sell novels, but it doesn’t always lead to sequels (see Maou for a perfect example). I’d argue these discs mean more since Aniplex has shown to give sequels to their AMW properties quite easily if they reach about this much.

Eromanga-sensei. Amateur said “Eromanga-sensei had a huge boost in novel sales and that’s all that matters.” and you commented on Kadokawa being second while expanding on the other Kadokawa, so I wanted to add that clarification for anyone else reading who might not understand the difference.

I remember you shared a link to a Japanese site that tells you when certain titles are solicited. They also have rankings of amazon, hmv, etc. Can you give me that link? There’s a show that i want to track when it will be solicited. Thanks!

How do you think Katsugeki Touken Ranbu is going to sell? Does the first volume include any extras (event tickets, game codes etc)? Do we know how many volumes it has in total? Its ranking on Amazon doesn’t look too optimistic…

There’s just no way to tell. It comes out insanely early for one, so it could have a long tail since so many episodes will air after the disc comes out. And it’s naturally going to be heavily underestimated by Stalker as well given the audience. Complicating things, it’s got an event ticket in volume *2* rather than volume 1. I don’t think we know if it’s one or two cour yet and Aniplex doesn’t solicit all their volumes at once, so I’m not sure what final volume count will be.

The word I’ve heard is that some fans are annoyed because one of the popular character dynamics was flipped in the adaption, but only time will tell if that’s a Kancolle level of mistake. Right now, I’d guess about 30K? But that’s just totally a gut feeling from looking at the early response. I barely know anything about Touken Ranbu as is–and this version doesn’t have the characters/dynamics I DO like, so I’m not paying much attention outside of a general “interested because high profile show aimed at women.”

(My love this season is Hitorijime My Hero, which will undoubtedly tank. It has mediocre production values and it’s an actual BL series, so you’ll have someone sitting right next to you on the “whhhhhhhy this didn’t didn’t sell more” train in a few months, something.)

30k would definitely be very strong, at almost double Hanamaru. It’s especially the fact that I don’t even know if it’s one or two cour that really makes me wonder though. At first I wondered if Aniplex would go straight to a box like their Fate work with ufotable. One box with the event ticket would have been pretty powerful.

For an unknown animation studio, Encourage Films actually did a pretty good job with the first episode of “Hitorijime My Hero”. The animation was consistent and smooth. (I watch it on a smart tv so the quality may be better than watching it on my PC) . It had really good animation and colors. The songs are amazing. Voice acting was nice.

But yeah, too bad it’s flopping. It’s charting outside the Top 2000. I can’t see this selling over 3k.

The little bump up from Little Witch Academia is a pleasant surprise. I’m not really aware of any sort of external events for the series so I’m assuming maybe some additional people were collecting for the Sucy/Imaishi episode possibly? Either way as always thank you for gathering the data.

I think this one just sold a bit more because it came out right around when the show finished, so people who were waiting to make their purchase were able to buy wk1-2 unlike with v1. I’d expect v1 is almost certainly higher now, but all we have are its first two weeks.

Well it’s safe to say Kuzu no Honkai was a total bust (overrated imo… not surprised it crapped out)….

Disappointed SukaSuka is not doing better with it’s first rollout. Was hoping it could breakthrough and maybe expand the franchise more, perhaps more LN’s and maybe a season 2 to finish adapting the novels. Since it’s only v1, I guess its wait and see… But I’m not counting on a smash hit though…

Looking back from a year, this year’s shows look like they are just not performing as well as hoped. It makes me wish shows like Netoge no yome, Re:Zero, and more did much higher so that they fill the slots instead of this crap that’s just losing these studios money (Meaning shows like Kuzu)

Sales almost always just go down from v1, so sadly we shouldn’t expect things to get any better for Sukasuka disc-wise.

Also it’s generally more about losing the production committee money than the studio. Lerche isn’t even on the Kuzu no Honai committee, so it technically doesn’t matter to them how it performs. They were paid a fixed fee to animate the series, and that’s where their involvement stops.

But in general, most shows lose money. The big hits are important because they pay for everything else.