Friday, January 20, 2012

What happens after South Carolina? Some scenarios

Ron Fournier at the National Journal in a post today offers several
scenarios for how the contest for the Republican nomination might play out
after South Carolina. Here three in
order of probability, according to Fournier.

Most Likely Scenario:

Gingrich wins South Carolina and heads into Florida with
momentum. If Gingrich wins Florida or
comes in a close second a two-man battle continues all the way to Super Tuesday
on March 6.

Next Most Likely
Scenario:

Romney wins South Carolina by a narrow margin but can’t seal
the nomination because of mis-steps, Santourm being declared the winner in
Iowa, Perry dropping out, and Romney’s tax problems. A win in Florida would help Romney get back
on track but chances are he still won’t be able to seal the deal. A two-man race continues toward
Super-Tuesday.

If Gingrich implodes—as he is prone to do—then Rick Santorum
or, less likely, Paul becomes the second man in the two-man race.

Regardless, all of Fournier’s scenarios predict a protracted
fight all the way to Super Tuesday and……I hadn’t thought of this….perhaps
beyond.

Possible Scenario:

A fight on the floor of the convention.

Fournier says it is not likely but possible that the fight
between Romney and Anyone-but-Romney will go all the way to the convention and
an alternative candidate we have not even considered might win in a brokered
convention. Fournier says GOP leaders
already see both Romney and Gingrich as flawed candidates. If neither locks in the nomination, party leaders might push for an alternative such as Mitch Daniels of Indiana. He notes that “Eyebrows were raised in
Washington when Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels was tapped to provide the GOP
response to Obama's State of the Union address on Tuesday night.”

Is a brokered convention likely? No.
But, who would have thought a few months ago that such a possibility
would have even been discussed. It is
now.