Could Christie’s high approval rating put New Jersey in play for Romney?

posted at 10:26 am on April 11, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

If so, it would be quite a coup for Chris Christie, the famously combative chief executive in the Garden State. New Jersey hasn’t gone Republican in a presidential election since 1988, when George H. W. Bush won his only term in the White House. Then again, the state hasn’t had a Republican governor with this kind of popularity in a very long time, either:

Christie is more of a leader, 54 percent of voters say, while 39 percent say he is more of a bully. …

New Jersey voters approve 58 – 35 percent of the way Christie is handling the state budget and support his proposed 10 percent across-the-board state income tax cut 54 – 32 percent.

This is even more impressive when one considers the advantages Democrats have in the state. They control both chambers of the legislature by 3:2 ratios. In the 2009 election that put Christie into office, Democrats had a ten-point advantage in the exit polling, 41/31/28, and Christie only won 8% of the Democratic vote. His disapproval number is now lower than the Democratic turnout in that election, at 39%, although it’s within the margin of error in the survey.

Jammie Wearing Fool thinks this could put New Jersey in play for Republicans in the fall — and might convince Romney to pick him as a running mate:

There isn’t a Democrat in the state who could beat him in 2013 if he remains above 50%. At the same time, such popularity in what’s normally a solid blue state for Democrats could encourage Romney to go with him as VP.

I’m skeptical about the running-mate idea, but it’s certainly possible. Christie is more personally popular with conservatives in the GOP than Romney is, but his positions may not be once they get a thorough airing. Also, while Christie’s combative style works well in New Jersey, it may not sell as well outside of the Garden State, and it might have the unintended effect of overshadowing the man at the top of the ticket. Finally, putting another Northeastern moderate on the ticket doesn’t make for good regional politics, although it’s been argued that the need to consider geography in running-mate choices has declined in recent decades. Bill Clinton and Al Gore were both Southerners, and they won two terms in office, as one example.

Whether this puts New Jersey in play is even murkier, but that might not be the point anyway. Democrats probably wouldn’t spend money in the state under normal circumstances; thanks to the registration advantages they have, it should be a solidly blue state in national elections. Christie’s popularity will force them to divert resources to protect the 14 electoral votes at risk, which gives them fewer options for other swing states. And if New Jersey really is in play in 2012, that means that Barack Obama will be in serious trouble across a wide range of swing states.

Wishful thinking, IMO. As tantalizing as it is to consider the possibility of Romney taking the state, it ain’t gonna happen. Corzine was already unpopular during the 2009 elections, and that was a wave year for Republicans winning governorships. While they may have elected a Republican governor this time, that was a more local election. NJ will be solidly blue for Obama.

As for Christie as VP, I give it a good solid HECK NO. He’s doing more good as governor than he would do as VP, and while he’s doing fairly well at fiscal policy, he has lots of positions that aren’t very conservative, gun control being one of them.

Christie’s leadership style is the kryptonite to Obama’s lead-from-behind style (in other words, his lack of leadership). The more Christie is out there applying the flamethrower to Obama’s effete style of governance, Bammy looks weak.

I’m sure Romney will be putting Christie out there in a pseudo-VP role, just ripping into Obama. When the real VP comes along, and then you add Palin’s pinpoint attacks, you’re going to have a three-headed monster relentlessly attacking our pathetic President.

Should be fun.

You Lefty Loser trolls better get plenty of rest. You’re going to be very busy defending this mess of a Prez.

I don’t know if I want Christie as the VP. Certainly he’s on the shortlist, but Ryan and Jindal would be ahead of him for me. Do VP picks even matter in terms of picking up states anymore? When’s the last time that happened? LBJ in 1960?

Just have Christie out there stumping for Mittens like he’s already doing. It may not swing New Jersey to the GOP column, but if Obama and the Dems have to waste precious resources there just to make sure they hold onto the state, so much the better.

The Christie factor will help. But the key to winning NJ, and everywhere else, in 2012 will be to maintain a tight hard focus on Obama’s RECORD. The Obama camp (and his media tools) will fight furiously, and sleazily, to keep attention away from that record. But the GOP candidate and his promoters must not allow it. They must brush away all of the red herrings and strawman arguments shoveled their way in the weeks ahead, and hold tight to Obama’s skinny throat: It’s the record, stupid.

Mittens needs a conservative VP choice…hell, look what Palin did for McCain. She was the only reason that the race was even close. Christie is not a conservative…a Republican, yes; a conservative hell no.

It could work — until people discover that except for fiscal matters, Christie is pretty much a liberal Northeasterner on all other issues, including Sarah Palin. Although, to be fair, I believe I did read somewhere that Christie is resisting the imposition of Obamacare on New Jersey in the face of threats and blackmail from the Obama gang.

Disapproval is 100% among people with their eyes open who see a billboard sized coward who wouldn’t sign onto the anti-Obamacare brief and who put an Islamist and terrorist lawyer on a NJ county bench.

He’s the perfect analog to Romney, someone who’s outsized approval ratings belie the fraud underneath for quite some time. But like Romney, that will catch up to him.

Good grief. Those of you claiming that you’re gonna stay home and not vote for Romney, please remove your head from your rectum. Romney wasn’t in my top 5 list of GOP contenders, but I’m sure as hell voting for him in November. Enthusiastically.

I get it. We weren’t able to get a rock-ribbed conservative this primary season – so get over it. Letting Obama and his minions run this country into the ground is worth it to you people?

The most important attribute for Romney’s running mate will be the ability to take the argument to the people in clear, direct, convincing terms. Rubio would be very good at that, as would Ryan, Christie, and Gingrich. A solid conservative would also bring that important attribute to the ticket, helping to solidify and energize the base. On balance, I think Rubio would be the best choice, but Romney could certainly do worse than Christie.

It’s hard to say if Christie would actually put NJ into play if he were the VP nominee. I don’t think that possibility is enough reason to pick him, though.

I live in NJ and doubt that Romney could win here given the amount of people on the dole. Christie won because people hated Corzine. Christie is hampered by the fact the legislature is controlled by the Democrats. The only reason he has been able to get some changes is because of New jersey’s financial situation. Every city in the state with few exceptions is a slum controlled by unions and democrats.

Also, isn’t Menendez up for re-election as NJ Senator? Should be in play to win that seat as well. However, both New Jersey and Pennsylvania have teased many times before…

SouthernGent on April 11, 2012 at 11:09 AM

He is. Last I saw he was up 51-38. However, the guy he is running against has zero name recognition in NJ. So, that is probably a lost cause.

In PA, I do think that Obama is in play and maybe Santorum will consider running for his old seat, and maybe might beat Bob Casey (although unlikely, for reasons I do not get since Casey has been a pretty poor Senator).

What Christie has going for him is his ability to call it like it is, and not be afraid to use tough language THAT PEOPLE UNDERSTAND. As someone who lives & votes in NJ, I appreciate this about him, but in no way do I think he’s right for the VP job.

Like Palin, I think he is best utilized to help explain to average people, prone to falling under Obama’s spell and believing his BS about Republicans wanting to eat your babies, how it REALLY is. Why the problems Obama has created/exasperated are bad for EVERY-BODY.

Unlike McCain, I believe Romney is capable of communicating why fiscal conservative policies benefit everyone. I just don’t think that people will believe him. Utilize Christie, but from the outside. We don’t need to be distracted by the left creating yet another “war” (War on Teachers?)

Unlike McCain, I believe Romney is capable of communicating why fiscal conservative policies benefit everyone. I just don’t think that people will believe him. Utilize Christie, but from the outside. We don’t need to be distracted by the left creating yet another “war” (War on Teachers?)

Violina23 on April 11, 2012 at 11:18 AM

In 4 years as governor, Romney
– increased taxes by $550M
– increased spending by 26%
– RomneyCare, ’nuff said

Romney talking about fiscal policies benefiting everyone is like a serial areonist talking about how fire prevention programs benefit everyone.

I love Chris C. He’s a great New Jersey Republican, in the same way that Rudy Giuliani is a great New York Republican. It’s the best (i.e. most conservative) we can hope for in those states for the time being, but we can do better nationally.

These figures are the amounts of the past three state budgets. But let’s put these numbers into context. The FY 2010 budget (Gov. Corzine’s last) included about $2.3B in federal stimulus dollars, while the FY 2011 budget included $1.03B in federal monies. Otherwise, these budgets would have been about $27.5B and $27.0B, respectively.

The FY 2011 budget, on the surface, appears to decrease spending by $1.5B as compared to FY 2010. But as our Taxpayers’ Budget for 2011 pointed out, this “decrease” was a ruse; primarily a function of a $3B pension deferral and more than $1B in cuts to state aid.

Since Gov. Christie took office, state spending has been on the rise. And if the governor has his way, it will rise even further.

Yesterday, Gov. Christie addressed a joint session of the state Legislature in which he outlined his budget proposal for FY 2013. The price tag? $32.1 BILLION! If enacted, the FY 2013 budget would represent an increase of more than 8% over last year’s budget. And overall spending, excluding federal stimulus dollars, would be up more than 15% relative to Gov. Corzine’s final 2010 budget.

In the coming days, more details regarding the governor’s budget proposal will emerge and require further inspection. But as of now this budget is far from austere and does nothing to rein in the Trenton behemoth. To the contrary, it grows government even further…and seems to conjure up an image of a boomerang, back to Corzine-like spending levels, rather than reflect a “New Jersey Comeback.”

• The project would produce a net cost of $3.245 billion to New Jersey, within a range of $2.106 billion and $4.137 billion,

• New Jersey’s electricity prices will increase by 2.1 percent, in 2017, within a range of 0.5 percent and 4.2 percent; and

• From 2017 to 2036, the average household ratepayer will pay $431 in higher electricity costs; while the average commercial ratepayer will pay an extra $3,054 and the average industrial ratepayer an extra $109,335

And the 2% cap on property tax increases is a ruse. It addresses a symptom without any significant work on the underlying problem. Populist gimmick.

Look, for NJ he is what he is, but on a national level, he’s not what any of you out there want. There is no way … none … that Jersey won’t go for zero in November. Stop kidding yourselves.

I wish the RNC would run some ads in California. There is such anger and discontent here…the GOP will never win here until they educate people first. It’s a Dem echo chamber here now, and we need a coherent message in opposition.

Christie is about as perfect as an attack dog as you can find, and I could see him resonating with Reagan Democrats in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.

All Romney/Christie would have to do is outperform Bush in 2004 by about 2 points to win. If any ticket could do it, they could, and if NJ goes “red” there’s absolutely no way Obama doesn’t lose the White House.

He is. Last I saw he was up 51-38. However, the guy he is running against has zero name recognition in NJ. So, that is probably a lost cause.

milcus on April 11, 2012 at 11:14 AM

Correct me if I’m wrong, but we still have a primary here in Jersey to determine the R candidate but I assume you’re speaking of Kyrillos. He’s former state Republican chair. Certainly the establishment pick, but better than the dwarf partisan hack we’ve got currently.

All Romney/Christie would have to do is outperform Bush in 2004 by about 2 points to win. If any ticket could do it, they could, and if NJ goes “red” there’s absolutely no way Obama doesn’t lose the White House.

BradTank on April 11, 2012 at 11:33 AM

2004: VA went Bush by 8%

2012: VA is polling +8 for Obama

This is VA that voted Republican in every election from 1968 to 2004. And this once solid red state is now a lock for Obama.

But yeah, given that, Romney will win NJ, a state that went for Obama by 20% last time.

Correct me if I’m wrong, but we still have a primary here in Jersey to determine the R candidate but I assume you’re speaking of Kyrillos. He’s former state Republican chair. Certainly the establishment pick, but better than the dwarf partisan hack we’ve got currently.

DUMP MENENDEZ!

Lost in Jersey on April 11, 2012 at 11:38 AM

Honestly, I am not overly familiar with NJ politics because they are kind of boring, but I am speaking of Kyrillos.

However, in NJ, 51% for the incumbent is not overly impressive. And if Christie gains traction, the Republican might be able to get enough traction to put the seat in play.

All States are “in play”. We just need to get the word out stronger in states where their heads are too far up their butts, and they’ll pull the Obama lever for the lie of hope & change Big Govt. America’s freedom is over if Obama wins another term.

But a poll 7.5 months before an election that had glaring holes in it said that Obama was winning Virginia, big. This election is over. Time to look ahead to 2028

I hate to burst your bubble but How far down was Reagan to Carter at this time of the election cycle. Also what was the composition of the poll that you cited? 7 1/2 months is a long time. This contest has only begun. When the good people of Virginia start getting an educational ad blitz about Obama and his record it will certainly tighten up.

We need to get serious. NJ is not in play. In 2004, Bush really hurt himself campaigning and spending money trying to pull NJ, HI, and PA to the GOP, instead of focusing on WI (which was real close), and locking up his states.

Also looking at the polling this far out is pointless, as the Democrats are locked in on their candidate, while GOP voters are just now starting to come to terms with Romney.

One final point, the GOP and Romney need to do better outreach to minority groups (especially Asians who are a natural GOP constituency, but the GOP has done little in the way of outreach).

Also food for thought, in 2000, Muslims gave Bush 88% of their vote, and even in 2004, they went for Bush 64%. Jews meanwhile gave Bush 22% in 2000, and 27% in 2004.(I know I will be called a “Paul-bot” for pointing this out.) And no I am not suggesting we “pander” to Muslims.

However, in NJ, 51% for the incumbent is not overly impressive. And if Christie gains traction, the Republican might be able to get enough traction to put the seat in play.

And Menendez has also been a rather mundane Senator.

milcus on April 11, 2012 at 12:01 PM

This actually has some semblance of realism. Ask Jersey peeps who Menendez is and you’ll get a lot of … “who?”. Christie’s approval rating would actually help in a Senate race and he and Kyrillos have been friends for a long time. Also the moochers are getting their goodies, so they’re not jazzed up to get to the polls. Complacency among those on the dole may put this seat in play.

One tough hurdle for Kyrillos to get over is Menendez’s draw with much of the latino community based solely on race. Unfortunate reality.

I would love nothing more than to send this chump packing. Supporting him gives me something to do since I can’t really get excited about a Willard presidential candidacy, unless I flee for a more free state somewhere south of the Mason-Dixon before the election.

I would love nothing more than to send this chump packing. Supporting Opposing him gives me something to do since I can’t really get excited about a Willard presidential candidacy, unless I flee for a more free state somewhere south of the Mason-Dixon before the election.

This actually has some semblance of realism. Ask Jersey peeps who Menendez is and you’ll get a lot of … “who?”. Christie’s approval rating would actually help in a Senate race and he and Kyrillos have been friends for a long time. Also the moochers are getting their goodies, so they’re not jazzed up to get to the polls. Complacency among those on the dole may put this seat in play.

One tough hurdle for Kyrillos to get over is Menendez’s draw with much of the latino community based solely on race. Unfortunate reality.

I would love nothing more than to send this chump packing. Supporting him gives me something to do since I can’t really get excited about a Willard presidential candidacy, unless I flee for a more free state somewhere south of the Mason-Dixon before the election.

Lost in Jersey on April 11, 2012 at 1:03 PM

A semblence? I will take it.

Yes, most people have no clue who Menendez is because he has been a fairly inconsequential Senator. I know more about his daughter, and her positions, than I do about him, and his positions. He is essentially a rubber-stamp for anything Reid wants, and not much else.

And yes, defeating Menendez will be tough:

1. He is a latino and his appeal there is strong.
2. Kyrillos has no name recognition, and most people dont know anything about what he wants to do.
3. Many people in NJ refuse to use their brains when voting.

However, if Romney is strong, and Christie puts in the effort, a guy at 51% in NJ is not impossible to beat.

22. Regardless of how you feel about Christopher Christie’s policies, would you say you like or don’t like Christopher Christie as a person?

The Like/Don’t Like number for blacks is 44% to 38%. I’m not sure why blacks overall like Christie as a person — they like his policies (31/61) less than the average Democrat. Maybe some local factor? Maybe too small a sample? At any rate, it’s just a surprising — and encouraging — number.