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Monday, September 16, 2013

Watchers for the 9-17-13 trading session

GNVC

First red day Supernovae. Finished down over 9% last time, so more
down side might be in the cards. If it had fallen much more than
10% then less could be expected as plausible. Always watch day 2 of a
busted one. The plan is to play for more reddening on day 2. Conditional
entry. A flat, nominally green or red open that immediately sells off
on heavy volume or sports traditional confirmed weakness cues is a fade
entry. Keep flat on high volume greening or strength, especially early.
This is fairly likely given the sizable red result of Monday. Avoid
entries as a short on big gaps up or down, but down is probably worse.
Keep flat on consistently strong price action, like trading above the
opening price level after the noise candle. Avoid spike up long scalps,
too. Selling volume was modest, range moderate. Tepid short signals at best, but it could fall.

DECN

New Supernovae scan return. A staggered 5 day move up which closed below the
highs and above the open. Volume varied most days, including Monday.
Eventually this can be shorted since it is up so absurdly. I suspect
like many such plays it can go further than anyone expects, though.
Conditional entry. On a higher open, it might yield a rapid green to
red on Tuesday and spike down for a short scalp. This might even be a
gap and crap. A fade on confirmed weakness cues anytime or heavy
dumping on volume from or near the bell. Ideal is a flat or barely
green or red open, followed by a big move down on volume to short into.
Avoid big gaps, especially downward ones. Do not short into initial
strength or greening. Box and drop to wait for the distribution print,
if desired and avoid top fish timing fades. Keep flat on positive price
action, no scalps.

NBY

Almost new 52's. Short term, these yearly high stocks often go higher.
Consistently strong price action, like trading above the opening price
level after the first 5 minutes, is a long. Or, if it gaps down a bit
to debut or opens flat and falls briefly, a red to green and hold with
strong volume. Also long on spiking up at or near the gun as a scalp.
This might be an EOD exit, depending on how it holds up. Also long on a
break above to new yearly highs (over 1.76) and holds. Avoid
shorts, keep flat on true weakness. Nice move above 1.60. Needs to keep above the Monday close,
or at least above 1.60 on pull backs to remain viable as a long, aside
from any early noise. Early sustained prices over 1.70 are ideal for aggressive entry.

PVA

Red floater scan return. Idea is to play for more down side on
day 2. Closed down over 1% on Monday off a gap up that ended below the debut. Stop just above
the Monday session high (6.12) to cap losses on head fake fade
entries. I'm only into the shorting possibility if it
surfaces, keeping flat on strength. Also a short on heavy volume
dumps/confirmed weakness cues. Low sell volume on Monday means it
may have decent chances to work. A 6 or 5.90 fail may be
ideal. Avoid big gaps/longs. Panic dump?

OMER

In play both ways. As a long on continuation of momentum above 8.64/holds.
Or as a scalp up at or near the gun for a scalp buy. Or,
as a
short on a fall fail of 8.50 and holds. Or as a scalp sell on
a
pop down at
or
near the bell. Avoid all big gaps. Be careful
maintaining a short on a reversal back over 8.50. The
fade is more likely given the price action on Monday, but keep an open mind. Modest float.

SBLK

Bullish Engulfing. I like this long over 10.89/holds. Large volume on
the rise, which is a poor sign for new buyers.
Keep
flat on real weakness aside from a typical red to green move, etc. Stops
just under the low last time or the initial 30 minute one on Tuesday.
More conservatively a stop placed under Monday's close,
too. The low on that day is too far away to use for
stops. Ideally
stays above 10.50 on pull backs to remain viable as a long if it
triggers. No big gaps or shorts.

NEO

B/O scan. I like it long back over 2.71 and
holds. Ideal to stay
over
that on tests aside from early noise if it triggers. Stops also
possible just under the close on Monday or the 1st 30 minute low of
Tuesday. Avoid all shorts and all big gaps. The low on Monday is too
far away to use for risk managing stops. Also a long on spiking up at
or near the gun as a scalp. Low volume on the rise, a fair sign
for new buys. Exiting below 2.60 on
fails
after
trigger entry is possibly advisable. Early r/g?