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2010

By Azeem Ibrahim, Former Research Fellow, International Security Program, 2008–2010

THE 9/11 ATTACK upon the United States awakened Washington to the danger of violent Muslim radicalization on its soil. In the long term, the only way to defeat radical Islamists is to reduce the motivation for Muslims to radicalize in the first place. The report explains the cutting-edge solution currently operating in Scotland.

By Azeem Ibrahim, Former Research Fellow, International Security Program, 2008–2010

"Cybersecurity is likely to overtake terrorism as the number one threat to the UK's critical infrastructure over the coming decades, even if lags behind terrorism as a threat in the public mind. This is because of the rise in access to computers and computer literacy around the globe, the relative ease and anonymity of conducting a cyber attack on critical infrastructure, the reduced risk to the protagonist compared to other forms of attack, and the fact that protagonists can attack more flexibly, quickly, and with minimal institutional preparation or a shorter decision-making process than states or formalized terrorist groups require."

By Azeem Ibrahim, Former Research Fellow, International Security Program, 2008–2010

"...[T]he criteria by which we judge the debate victors are the some of the fluffiest and least deserving. For example, many analysts agreed that Clegg did well in the first debate because he had the knack of staring into the camera and remembered questioners' first names, something which Cameron had improved on the second time round. Others argued that Cameron may have lost out in the first debate because his hair looked too smart, and it played up to his too-slick image, so he ruffled it a bit more for the second one. The scary thing is that these kind of judgments are now more important than ever in British politics, thanks to the debates' preeminence. Is this good for Britain?"

By Azeem Ibrahim, Former Research Fellow, International Security Program, 2008–2010

"I do not believe that these aspects of Britain's generous welfare state are sustainable over the coming years. Certainly, they do not deserve to be sustained. When a person has been taking money from the government for not working for too long, that money is no longer doing good, it is doing harm. It would serve all Britons — long-term unemployed and taxpayer alike — if the government spent some time fixing this aspect of our broken welfare state."

By Azeem Ibrahim, Former Research Fellow, International Security Program, 2008–2010

"For too long, Britons have believed that the money should only come from the poor put-upon taxpayer. As should be painfully clear now, that is insufficient. As is starting to happen, universities need to diversify their sources of income to provide the investment that turns an adequate university into a great one. That means making greater use of alumni contacts, and aggressively looking for private philanthropy and endowments."

By Azeem Ibrahim, Former Research Fellow, International Security Program, 2008–2010

"...[C]oalitions are held together by leaders 'buying off' the smaller parties to prevent them splitting and triggering new elections. That inevitably results in leaders kowtowing to factional whims and offering concessions to the preoccupations of small parties, however arcane. That would be a very real risk here, where small party support has grown from 3% to 14% in the last thirteen years. In many countries this results in money for the pet projects of small parties or individuals. This is an awful idea at a time when there is such an urgent need to restrict spending."

By Azeem Ibrahim, Former Research Fellow, International Security Program, 2008–2010

"The markets are also likely to change their tune on the question of hung Parliaments and coalitions. The incredible gravity of the financial situation isn't going to go away soon, and if this spirit of cooperation continues we are likely to see a more successful coalition, on economic policy at least. This will likely result in the stabilization of the markets, not least because they will see that the parties are able to take action together to tackle the problem. Even before the election took place, Moody's credit rating agency said publicly that there was a chance that a hung Parliament and the resulting coalition might actually be a good thing for the markets, as it might enable greater cross-party support for the coming cuts, and so a greater sense of national consensus around them, with the resulting stability."

By Azeem Ibrahim, Former Research Fellow, International Security Program, 2008–2010

"The lesson for the euro, and so for Britain, which is currently standing on the sidelines and weighing up the euro's pros and cons — is that in its first decade of life it was a rather misunderstood currency. Its perceived strength, and thus its strength in the money markets, was based not only on Europe's perceived global role, but also on the relative stability of its strongest members. What is now inescapable is the fact that the euro should be regarded as an uneasy average of some global heavy-hitters like France and Germany, but also much weaker countries like Greece (who's debt some credit agencies now rate as junk), and Portugal, whose economy has barely grown for years."

By Azeem Ibrahim, Former Research Fellow, International Security Program, 2008–2010

"Enter the single currency. What it effectively does is mean that the consequences of Greece's profligacy rebound on those countries which share its currency. When Greece defaults on its debts, the rest of the eurozone countries suffer. And that means that the richer, more responsible eurozone countries — and that mainly means Germany — are called upon to bail Greece out....there is no way for the more responsible countries to get Greece to change its behaviour to make sure it won't happen again. Worse, many argue that bailing out Greece makes it less likely to change its ways in the future, as it means that it does not have to face the consequences of its profligacy."

By Azeem Ibrahim, Former Research Fellow, International Security Program, 2008–2010

"Clegg's insistence in the debate that downgrading our nuclear weapons could be a panacea for reducing the deficit came in the same week as senior officials in the Pentagon raised the alarm about Iran's progress towards acquiring nuclear weapons capability. President Obama's conference on global nuclear security helps to remind us of the urgent need for action on safeguarding the world's nuclear materials to prevent terrorists or other non-state actors from obtaining nuclear weapons. Given the financial incentives for rogue elements from international regimes to sell their knowledge for profit, the danger that such knowhow falls into the wrong hands is very real. Is it really safe to downgrade Britain's safeguard against such attacks?"

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