Admiral Cautious About Pullout

August 01, 2007|By David Lerman, dlerman@tribune.com | 202-824-8224

WASHINGTON — President Bush's nominee to head the Joint Chiefs of Staff told Congress on Tuesday that U.S. troops are likely to remain in Iraq "for years, not months," even as the military begins planning for an eventual drawdown of forces.

Adm. Michael Mullen, a former Norfolk-based 2nd Fleet commander who is expected to win easy confirmation as the military's top uniformed officer, warned against a hasty withdrawal of troops from Iraq that could destabilize the Middle East.

Even a withdrawal of half of today's 160,000 American troops in Iraq, he said, could take three or four years to complete.

"I understand the frustration over the war," Mullen told the Senate Armed Services Committee. "I share it. But I am convinced that because security in Iraq is tied to security in the region, and because security in the region bears directly on our own national security, we must consider our next moves very carefully."

Virginia Democratic Sen. Jim Webb, an outspoken critic of the war, questioned Mullen on whether the U.S. troop presence in Iraq served to increase stability or had the effect of undermining it.

With oil approaching $80 a barrel and some 4.5 million refugees fleeing Iraq, Webb said, Mullen's key task will be to determine "how to recuperate from what many of us believe was an enormous strategic blunder."

Mullen said the surge of some 30,000 troops this year has provided greater security in Iraq. But he acknowledged it has not led to any political reconciliation that would create a more effective Iraqi government.

"Barring that, no amount of troops in no amount of time will make much of a difference," Mullen said.

Virginia Sen. John W. Warner, a senior Republican and former committee chairman, pressed that point, noting the Iraqi parliament under Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki adjourned for the month of August without passing any needed political reforms.

"The surge is moving forward successfully, but the Maliki government is sliding backward," Warner said. "You're faced with that and you've got to sort this out." Mullen acknowledged the problem and urged caution, saying, "We must move in a measured fashion."

Asked by Webb whether U.S. troops could be on the ground in Iraq for the next 50 years, Mullen said, "I certainly haven't put any kind of timetable like that. I do think we will be there for years, not months. But I don't see it as a permanent -- you know, on a permanent base at this point."

Even as he advised against a rapid withdrawal, however, Mullen also acknowledged that the surge of 30,000 troops that began in January can't last beyond next April because the Army will be stretched too thin. Honoring a commitment to keep soldiers deployed to Iraq for no more than 15 months, followed by 12 months at home, means reductions must begin by next spring.

Pressed repeatedly on whether he favors a change in strategy, Mullen said he wanted to wait until September, when the top U.S. commander in Iraq will provide a much-anticipated report on whether progress is being made.

But when asked whether the United States is winning the war, Mullen hesitated. Given the lack of political reconciliation in Iraq, he said, "I would be concerned about whether we'd be winning or not." *