Mike , I feel that if it is a late start that it will be a multiple year 18 month minimum condition . The peaks may not be as substantial in an ENSO / 3.4 sense , but the outcome would be substantial as the longevity would be the significant factor . Especially in the way of the ground water . If a La Niņa builds late then the Southern Hem / Asian / Maritime continental discharge will be too late. Ie the La Niņa will not discharge the atmospheric resultant heat flux before we finish the Sth Equatorial wet season , if this lasts longer enough into next years transition then the Nth Hem could take over the momentum built to sustain the condition into another year . ie ATM the oceanic setup of the ENSO state is more Southern Pacific centric , the PDO seems to be a limiting factor , and I'm sure that arctic sea ice and the Altantic AMO is probably another influence . If we do see an outright La Niņa even if weak before March then this will help correct any inbalance or hander and in the Nth Pacific oceanic setup . So 1956 is not out the question . Funky , That 2011 map is not effective as it doesn't show the influence of the IOD which was strong Negative . Infact that single day image would most likely seen cool surface waters effected by the early /strong monsoon that swt through the Indonesian Archaepalogo . As for the structural layout / mechanics of the jet stream winds effects on Surface blocks , I think a lot more research needs to go into the ACPW ( Antarctic Circumpolar Wave ) and its interactions effects on ENSO , IOD and seasonal patterns . The Polar LWT definitely has a cyclic pattern much like the MJO . I and many other surfers , snow skiers and fisherman alike would love a MJO spectral respresentation type analysis . The Nodes of the LWT seem to couple with ACW features to have regular outbreaks . Next week is starting to look like the continent wide low , tropical drawdown and frontal suppression is about to start . No doubt there will maybe one more weterly frontal blast in say mid Oct. , but the prevalance of cut offs forming off Western Australia and drifting across the Mid continent will be telling . It's only a matter of time when this shifts slightly Nth and we see Pacific sourced moisture feeding all the way across the continent to systems that will sustain and hold moisture from all surrounding oceans . Dynamic will be the order of the day regardless . Because even a correction back into neutral or even warm neutral would require some pretty severe reversal .

I think you'd enjoy that video I sent to a few in here. The polar wave has a massive effect on global climate imo.

_________________________ "water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

Thanks snowbooby makes sense to me. Are the changes in the Indian Ocean dipole then from last year affecting this positioning or does the long wave pattern act more independent. Still looking at a low centre west of Perth and more following over the next couple of weeks then slipping SE.

I cant imagine any atmospheric process that is completely independent of any other - save perhaps solar radiation.

I would speculate that any mesoscale, persistent change in pressure/temps between the equator and the pole would matter but I'm not across the specifics of the IOD - many others on this thread know far more about that than I do. Thanks for the question.

He's referring to the equator where it matters most one would suspect. I am not a fan of this map. Neutral range colouration is lacking imo. It was much better a few years back.

Must be looking at a different map to me; whilst I can see pockets of +0.5, I see a hell lot more blues, and pushing well west now at 170E. Patch of purple now near SA moving west as well.

referring to the north atlantic on that map. Of all the areas it looks warm. Plenty of blue everywhere else, but I was wondering how it correlated with that graph showing temp drop since 2000. No biggy just the north atlantic didnt look cold.

PDO is currently breaking records for number of consecutive months above 0, and is near record levels for 2 and 3 year average.

Gringos, that cooling chart is for water temps along a line from just north of England to east of Greenland, extending down 800 meters below the surface. The surface temps in that map near that region are near 0 or slightly below.

I guess that some of the warm Atlantic water normally flowing along the far north Europe coast has been diverted towards NE Canada and Greenland where it is very warm.

PDO is currently breaking records for number of consecutive months above 0, and is near record levels for 2 and 3 year average.

Gringos, that cooling chart is for water temps along a line from just north of England to east of Greenland, extending down 800 meters below the surface. The surface temps in that map near that region are near 0 or slightly below.

I guess that some of the warm Atlantic water normally flowing along the far north Europe coast has been diverted towards NE Canada and Greenland where it is very warm.

I tend to look at the NOAA maps on stormsurf a lot. The cooling in the Nino regions has definitely slowed compared to a few weeks ago. There is still cooling happening but lots of warm anomalies now poking up as well. Gotta wonder what will happen when that burst of westerlies happens over the next 2 weeks.