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The GOP Civil War comes to Central New York: Who will prevail in Tuesday's primary?

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State Assemblywoman Claudia Tenney, left, faces U.S. Rep. Richard Hanna, R-Barneveld, in the June 24 Republican primary in the 22nd Congressional District. Democrats will not field a candidate in the November election.

WASHINGTON, D.C. - Long before House Majority Leader Eric Cantor's upset loss to a Tea Party challenger in a Virginia primary this month, U.S. Rep. Richard Hanna was taking no chances in Central New York.

The two-term Republican from Oneida County began campaigning in early May against his opponent from the right, conservative Assemblywoman Claudia Tenney, of New Hartford.

Hanna drove his truck across the 22nd Congressional District, hosting seven "Hot Dogs with Hanna" in towns big and small, meeting small groups over coffee, campaigning door-to-door and rallying volunteers at 75 different stops. This weekend he'll march in the Strawberry Parade in Owego, and make a last-minute visit to all eight counties in the district ahead of Tuesday's Republican primary election.

Will it be enough to hold off Tenney, a two-term assemblywoman who claims Hanna -- a former friend and political ally -- has abandoned his conservative principles?

If nothing else, Tenney, 53, has gained confidence from Cantor's loss to a Tea Party-backed political novice in early June. She views the upset as a sure sign that she'll prevail on Tuesday. "Will Hanna crash and burn like Cantor? We say YES!" Tenney tweeted to her supporters on Thursday.

But can Tenney pull of an upset in a Utica-based district that has elected moderate Republicans and Democrats to Congress for the past 32 years?

Given the district's history, political analysts say Tenney's best hope is for a low turnout in Tuesday's primary. In such GOP primaries, the most conservative voters are often those with the strongest motivation to show up at the polls.

When Hanna, 63, faced a Republican primary from Tea Party candidate Michael Kicinski in 2012, the race stayed below the radar. Few people took the challenge seriously. Neither candidate spent significant money on the campaign.

Yet Kicinski still managed to pick up almost 30 percent of the vote in a primary where only 9 percent (14,941) of the 165,097 registered Republicans bothered to vote in the election.

What will happen this time if 91 percent of Republicans stay home?

Kyle Kondik, who tracks House races for the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, says an upset is always a possibility under such circumstances.

"I think it's fair to say that turnout will be low," Kondik said in an interview. "If the only people who show up to vote are people who are mad at Hanna, that's how you could have an upset. But this is a district that has liked candidates like Hanna for years. There's no reason to think Tenney could win."

Still, he added, "The Cantor loss, I think, shook up a lot of people. And if you're looking for the logical next upset, this is the logical district to look at."

Kondik said he views Cantor's loss to a Tea Party-backed candidate in Virginia as an outlier, not a harbinger for the Republican Party. Unlike Hanna, Cantor did little last-minute campaigning in his district, where resentment over Cantor's national profile as a party leader had grown among many conservatives.

Hanna also has history on his side, Kondik said. Historically, only about 2 percent of House incumbents since World War II have not been re-nominated by their party.

The only publicly released polls in the campaign, one from Hanna's pollster and the other from a group supporting the congressman, showed that likely voters want Hanna to return to Congress for a third term.

Hanna was favored by 73 percent of likely Republican primary voters, compared to 17 percent for Tenney in a March survey he commissioned with the Republican polling firm McLaughlin & Associates. Only 9 percent were undecided. (McLaughlin also worked for Cantor, and its polls showed the congressman winning the primary.)

The most recent publicly released poll, commissioned by American Unity PAC which supports Hanna, showed the congressman leading Tenney among likely primary voters. 61 percent to 20 percent, at the end of May.

Despite the promising numbers, Hanna and independent political groups from Washington, D.C., have spent heavily on the campaign -- investing more than $1 million combined.

Tenney, a lawyer and small businesswoman, loaned her campaign about $100,000 from her personal savings and managed to raise an additional $30,000 by early June. But she has received plenty of free exposure as some national conservatives rallied around her campaign.

She appeared last week on Neil Cavuto's show on the Fox Business Network and picked up the endorsement of Erick Erickson, editor of the influential RedState conservative website that has a national following.

Tenney racked up endorsements from conservative groups and leaders that include New York Conservative Party Chairman Mike Long, and Carl Paladino, the conservative businessman who ran as the Republican nominee for governor in 2010.

Tenney is also endorsed by several groups opposed to abortion rights, including the Susan B. Anthony List, the New York State Right-to-Life Committee, and the National Pro-Life Alliance.

Hanna has received the majority of endorsements in the race from top Republican groups and business organizations across the district. Seven of the eight county Republican committees in the 22nd District designated Hanna as their choice for the GOP nomination. The eighth, Tioga County, does not endorse in primaries.

The National Republican Congressional Committee, the campaign arm of House Republicans, backed Hanna early in the race. So did the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, at least a half-dozen other business groups, and the National Rifle Association, which gave him its top rating.

Locally, the employees union at Remington Arms in Herkimer County and the Oneida Indian Nation - two of the region's largest employers -- endorsed Hanna.

The campaign has turned bitter at times, with Tenney as recently as Thursday posting a notice about a campaign rally in which she said it's time to "Hunt RINO" - an acronym for Republican-In-Name-Only.

Hanna refused to debate Tenney throughout the campaign, and said she is "incapable of forthright debate." Both candidates have accused the other of distorting their record.

Grant Reeher, a political science professor at Syracuse University, said Hanna probably did not want to help raise the name recognition of his opponent through the debates, as Cantor did in Virginia with a negative campaign against Dave Brat.

At the same time, Hanna needs to encourage the majority of Republican voters to show up at the polls on Tuesday, Reeher said, because most are "fundamentally moderate" in the 22nd District.

"I'm sure one of the things he is trying to do is make sure all of the Republicans know that they can't just sit home," Reeher said of Hanna. "I would expect him to win, and that he will do it quite handily, because I think he fits the district well. I would not expect her to be that close to him. But that scenario is within the realm of possibility."