Series Preview: Yankees (38-20) vs. Padres (32-27)

Mark Rubin

06/11/2004

I'll level with you, the San Diego Padres are one of my favorite teams in the MLB, falling in right behind the Cubs (who are a distant, distant second to the Yanks). Now, those Padres come to town to face our Yankees in a three-game Interleague series, and they come bearing gifts. Or at least one gift in the form of former Yankee pitcher David Wells, who makes his return to Yankee Stadium on Sunday.

To me, there's just something loveable about the Padres. They've got
some hard-nosed players on the team, especially right-fielder Brian Giles - whom
the Yankees were trying to trade for a few years ago - and some young and
exciting talent like shortstop Khalil Greene and third baseman Sean Burroughs. They're also a very well-balanced squad, with good hitting,
good starting pitching and an excellent bullpen. They're hard not to like,
and they're hard to beat too, as they sit at the top of the NL West standings,
tied with the Dodgers.

Some people are going to call this a rematch of the 1998 World Series, but
they'll be lying to you. The only players left on the Yankees from that
World Series are Bernie, Jeter, Rivera and Posada (and Homer Bush, but he
doesn't count). The only players left on the Padres from that World Series
are Trevor Hoffman and, well, that's it really. Sterling Hitchcock is
technically a Padre, but he's been on the disabled list all season. Kevin Brown pitched in that World Series, but as a Padre, so he doesn't count either.

At any rate, the Padres just dropped a three-game series with the Red Sox by
losing two out of three games. It was the odd series in that both teams
scored 11 runs, but only the first game was a nail-biter. Pedro Martinez
outlasted David Wells and the Sox scored an unlikely run against Akinori Otsuka
- the Japanese reliever who, if you've never heard of, you should go find out
about - to take a 1-0 victory.

The Yankees, meanwhile, continued their hot streak with a sweep of the
last-place Rockies. The Yankees pitching staff is starting to become a
concern, but right now the offense is scoring more runs than the pitchers can
allow. That's all well and good, but it won't fly in the postseason and
against teams with stronger rotations like Boston and Oakland. Something
needs to happen, but at least Mike Mussina looked amazing in his last start.

Friday: Adam Eaton (2-6, 5.65) vs. Mike Mussina (7-4, 4.59)Eaton broke a nine-start streak without a win when he notched one against
the Brewers in his last start. He's been erratic all season and has been
downright poor for some starts, but his strikeout to walk ratio of 55:16 is of
high quality. Eaton has never faced the Yankees during his five-year
career.

Mussina is coming off what was far and away his best start of the season.
If he can continue that trend with a good win here, we can finally officially
announce his return (even though, yes, I know, I already did that).
Mussina struck out 10 Rangers over eight one-run innings in his last start, and
he hasn't lost a game since April 22.

Saturday: Dennis Tankersley (0-2, 2.35) vs. Jon Lieber (4-3, 5.01)Tankersley has worked mainly out of the bullpen this year, but he was put
into the starting rotation with the injuries to Wells and Jake Peavy. As a
starter, he is 0-2 with a 1.46 ERA this year, but he has allowed an oddly high
four unearned runs. Tankersley is a talented, young pitcher that the
Yankees shouldn't take lightly.

Lieber has now allowed six runs in each of his last two starts, jumping his ERA
up to over five. He's not allowing baserunners, as his WHIP is just 1.13,
but he has already allowed seven home runs, including four in his last two
starts. He's hanging too many pitches, and that's not going to be pretty
if he continues to do so.

Sunday: David Wells (2-4, 3.40) vs. Javier Vazquez (7-4, 3.54)Welcome back Boomer, now prepare to be dusted. Strolling through the
stats, several Yankees have absolutely demolished Wells during their
careers. It's no wonder he wanted to play here. Heck, Homer Bush
hits him. I read somewhere recently that Wells' injury during the World
Series cost the Yankees the championship and, while that seems somewhat
far-fetched, its not altogether untrue. How about a little redemption?

Is anyone else amused the Vazquez is the Yankee currently wearing Wells' old
number of 33? Javy has been the Yankees' best pitcher this season and he
absolutely shut down the Rockies in his last start. If Mussina returns to
form, the Yankees will have quite the two-headed ace at the top of their
rotation.

Predictions and Prognostications:It's hard to tell for this series. I like Mussina in game one, but Lieber
confuses the heck out of me. He doesn't walk anyone, he's not allowing a
lot of hits, but he's been getting hammered on the hits he does allow.
Tankersley isn't this good, so this one could turn into a shootout.
Wells has a way of stepping up when he feels like it, but I don't think he'll be
able to step it up far enough to beat Vazquez. Yanks should take two of
three here, but it's not entirely safe.

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