Ukip’s time will come

We have to accept a disagreeable truth: the electorate have spoken and they have chosen David Cameron to be their next Prime Minister.

Knowing Cameron as we do, and retaining our faith in the good sense of the people, it may be hard to accept this fact: it’s easier to attribute the Tory victory to trickery of one kind or another. But it wasn’t all trickery. The truth is that Cameron very successfully presented the image of a “safe pair of hands” and that is what most people, in normal times, would prefer to vote for.

Things are different when there is an obvious national emergency. In 1916, when young Britons in their hundreds and thousands were being mown down every day by German machine guns on the Western Front, when we were almost out of food because the Royal Navy had failed to protect our shipping from German submarines, the British Establishment at last brought itself to rally round the one man who could win the War – David Lloyd George. When the War was won, he fell from power. He remained in politics for another twenty-five years, through the Depression, the General Strike and the rise of Hitler. But he was never allowed back into Downing Street.

The Lloyd George Coalition met its end at a meeting of Conservative MPs at the Carlton Club in 1922. The MPs were divided. Most of the leading members of the party were in coalition with Lloyd George. But the back benchers were restless. A single speech by a relatively unknown member captured the mood of the meeting:

The Prime Minister was described this morning in The Times, in the words of a distinguished aristocrat, as a live wire. He was described to me, and to others, in more stately language, by the Lord Chancellor, as a dynamic force, and I accept those words. He is a dynamic force, and it is from that very fact that our troubles, in my opinion, arise. A dynamic force is a very terrible thing; it may crush you but it is not necessarily right.

The Conservative Parliamentary Party voted to withdraw from the coalition and to fight the coming election as a unified party. The War was over; and during the next fifteen years, British politics was to be dominated by that same speaker – Stanley Baldwin. Baldwin was a consummate political operator, who pioneered the use of radio to talk to the people. He retained public confidence because he was clever but he did not project an image of cleverness: he projected an image of calm, pipe-smoking reassurance. He kept Lloyd George out of power from the rest of his political life and he left Neville Chamberlain to face Hitler in 1939.

In an interesting Guardian article in February 2014, Martin Kettle suggested that some leading Conservatives had realised that the Baldwin image would be right for Cameron too:

The political mood in Britain today has a lot of similarities to the mood of the 1930s, a leading Conservative told me this week as he explained Tory thinking about the year to come. Just like in the 1930s, the country is still in shock from a major economic trauma, he said. Just like then, the Tory party needs to offer the thing that voters want more than anything else from a politician: reassurance after hard times. It therefore falls to David Cameron, this leading Tory explained, to be the 21st century’s man you can trust in a crisis. That’s why, he went on, Cameron will fight the 2015 general election as the new Stanley Baldwin.

Did Cameron deliberately cultivate the Baldwin image or did it come instinctively? He has the right manner. In the TV debates, he came over as a Prime Minister. He projected an image of calm reassurance. In the five-way debate which he did not attend, he was probably the winner. He was the Prime Minister; it was not for him to descend to the mud-slinging level of the other parties. He had better things to do and he didn’t attend.

UKIP also, like Lloyd George, is a dynamic force. Because it is a dynamic force, it may attract but it may also repel. In Britain, a dynamic force is not allowed anywhere near power in normal times. In a crisis, things are different. In a crisis, a Cromwell, a Lloyd George, a Churchill will be allowed to take over. But when the crisis is over and the dynamic force is no longer felt to be needed, everyone breathes a sigh of relief and returns to everyday business.

The return of David Cameron to power has made some people breathe a sigh of relief. That relief is not justified. But as yet, there is no perception of a crisis situation in Britain. The crisis will come. Things will get worse before they get better. When the crisis comes, the country will need UKIP.

9 Comments

Frederica
on May 22, 2015 at 10:34 am

Cameron won, not because of his policies or his personal popularity. Cameron won because most people in this country were terrified of an SNP/Labour situation. Who in their right mind would have wanted a Red Ed driven by Nicola Sturgeon/Alex Salmond regime?

4M voters kept the faith and voted with their conviction for UKIP policies and their belief in Britain. It is my unshakeable belief that something nasty was done in South Thanet to rob Nigel of a seat in Parliament.

The party was damaged by the shameful display surrounding Nigel’s resignation. We are used to seeing ferrets fighting in sacks within the other parties but not within UKIP.

Cameron may think he is rolling along but, I am waiting with baited breath for the wheels to start dropping off his wagon!

Roger Turner
on May 21, 2015 at 10:26 am

That`s history for you.
“If you don`t know where you`ve bin` how can you know where you`re goin`”
The tale does hang together, the only bit I take issue with is the conclusion.
The scenario in this case, i.e the basic events and their sequence are entirely different.
The “crisis” began the day Heath signed the treaty of Rome and began the gradual process of putting our Sovereignty into hock and it has continued remorselessly ever since, culminating in the signing of the Lisbon treaty; with the prospect of even deeper enslavement to come.
At best Cameron is an exponent of the” art of the possible”, Churchill of the seeming impossible.
Cameron`s solution to the EU problem is amelioration, by negotiation, a sort of “appeasement”, whatever inconsequential repatriations he gains (and tries to sell as victories – he won`t smell a “competency) he must not be allowed to con the British public into acquiescence.
It is UKIP`s duty to complete the process they started and fortified by John Major`s “B*stards” of extricating this nation completely from the undemocratic grasp of the EU. LOCK STOCK and BARREL
Whether it ever had any merit or not, the EU as it is presently constituted is plainly not operating in this nations interest ( nor can it with the adoption of Majority Voting and the loss of our vetos, at best it is an experiment that has failed.
and in the words of the best dynamic leader we could ever get.
simply.
“We want our Country back”

Mike Munford
on May 21, 2015 at 11:16 am

Of course there’s a crisis, I agree. But most people are not aware of it. When things get to the stage they were in 1916 or 1940, the electorate, and maybe even the Establishment, will realise that urgent action is needed. Fortunately or unfortunately, that time has not yet come. But it may not be long in coming. And thanks to Ukip, there will be people who have prepared themselves to deal with it.

Roger Turner
on May 27, 2015 at 12:07 am

“And thanks to UKIP, there will be people who have prepared themselves to deal with it”
Not sure I am confident we can say that, I think UKIP activists are pretty thin on the ground in some areas

pamela preedy
on May 20, 2015 at 6:42 pm

Interesting analysis of ‘safe hands’ versus ‘dynamic force’. The way Churchill was dropped by the electorate immediately after the war was thought of by many as ingratitude, but it exemplifies your argument convincingly.
UKIP is a force for change, but not everyone yet sees the need for that change, ie the urgent need for Brexit before our nation loses its identity and what is left of its independence to act to extricate itself. The next year or two must be spent bringing home to everyone that there is a crisis looming: our nationhood is under threat and certain vested interests and powerful forces are determined to keep us captive. They will present us with an image of isolation and disaster if we dare to vote for freedom. People will look for leaders who are not afraid to run our country without diktats from Brussels, and that is when UKIP and other anti-EU politicians will come into their own. The referendum is UKIP’s next big test after the success of the EU election last May and I hope we are ready to meet it.

Harvey Crusader
on May 20, 2015 at 1:35 pm

It’s the debt timebomb that will shake the world to it’s foundations, and I can assure you it’s coming. The race to take the world into one world government is not just a random happening and as resources become scarce and populations explode a two tier society is just what our masters have waiting around the corner for us. hide your gold if you have any!

bedfordjohn
on May 20, 2015 at 12:41 pm

Or is it that as long as people have their X Factor or Strictly and a Curry they are happy. As long as it does not effect their lives.
In short CMD can do what he wants and will do so now he has a majority.Has anyone noticed the influx of accounts now posting pro Tory propaganda on the Telegraph, Guido etc since the election. They are trying now to dominate all aspects of the media in the same way their cash dominates the press and Television.
The nasty party has morphed into another party from history….

JulianTheSceptic
on May 20, 2015 at 10:21 am

ConservativeHome has some interesting analyses on why the Conservatives hijacked many who would otherwise vote UKIP – with deeper finances, the Cameroons apparently hired 100 constituency managers and used a voter profiling computer system to pinpoint and target voters.

Croydon Central was never a top UKIP target, but anecdotal evidence is that the Tories squeezed the likely UKIP vote from 18% to 9%, with the promise of an EU referendum being key.

This bought in firepower also delivered Eastleigh, where the Conservatives had been a poor third behind the LDs and UKIP in 2013, and let their local organisation wither.

Food for thought for some of UKIP’s very generous donors?

Rob Silvertree
on May 20, 2015 at 9:41 am

Great article, thoughtful and hopefully predictable…

Search

Search for:

Subscribe to Our Newsletter

Please leave this field empty

Email *

Sign up to our daily newsletter to receive all the latest from Independence Daily in your inbox.