Survival Analysis on the Timing of Foreign Banks into China from the Aspect of Traditional Real Option

Shujuan Ding, Dafei Chen

Abstract

Foreign Banks are becoming more important to China as China’s banking opens more. China needs to know all aspects of foreign bank’s entry, but researches about the timing are few. According to the theoretical and empirical analysis, foreign banks in China have some monopoly power on their customer in the past and in the future. Therefore traditional real option theory can be used to analyze the timing. This article examines the entry timing of all foreign banks into China from 1978 using survival analysis under real option theory. The empirical model certifies that the entry timing is consistent with real option theory, but at the same time, it presents its own characteristics: policy is very important to the timing; although the uncertainty from the market delays the entry timing, but the delay is weakened by the attractive repay; powerful banks may enter earlier, but at the same time, they are not eager to enter because they have more delayability. China’s authority can affect the timing of foreign banks’ expanding in China through its influence on uncertainty, irreversibility, delayability and current cash flow.

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