The dollar came off the boil during the London AM session after posting fresh gains in Asia. USD-JPY was an exception, having dipped quite sharply at the Tokyo fixing (on netted out corporate demand for yen), posting a low at 107.15, before recouping.
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The dollar has continued to mostly trade firmer, this time amid a backdrop of fresh equity market declines on Wall Street and in Asia (which the exception of Chinese markets, which have been playing catch-up following the prolonged Lunar New Year break).
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The dollar edged higher through the morning session in N.Y. on Wednesday, taking the DXY to six-session highs of 89.99. The greenback later moved lower on the FOMC minutes, as the Fed said a gradual approach to tightening remained appropriate, and as it sees few signs of broad wage growth increases (which got markets in a tizzy following the strong earnings outcome in the last jobs report).
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OVERVIEW
GBP is trading at a disadvantage due to calls for gaining full regulatory autonomy after Brexit and the jobless rate rises.
The Canadian Dollar continues to weaken as oil prices drop and the US Dollar resurges.
The Euro is trading at a disadvantage against the US Dollar as the Purchasing Managers Indexes for both the service sector and manufacturing are disappointed.
The Australian Dollar continues to fall as wage inflation remains muted.
HIGHLIGHT
The GB Pound is under pressure as the jobless rate rose unexpectedly for the first time in 2 years from 4.3% to 4.4%.
US DOLLAR
The Dollar continues to strengthen and reverse some of its losses that we have witnessed since November last year.
BRITISH POUND
The Pound remains sensitive to Brexit news as more than 60 lawmakers demand UK PM May to deliver Brexit with full autonomy.
EURO
The Euro is lower today as the PMI surveys for both manufacturing and services disappoint market expectations.
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The dollar continued to hold firm. EUR-USD extended lower for a fourth consecutive session, logging a four-session low of 1.2307, which extends the correction from the 38-month high seen on Friday at 1.2556. The day's low was seen in the wake of the release of preliminary Eurozone February PMI survey data, which missed expectations and gave a presently bearish market a cue to sell.
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The dollar has remained buoyant, led by gains in USD-JPY, whicih lifted for a fourth straight session in logging a four-session high of 107.90, extending the rebound from the 15-month low seen last Thursday at 105.54. EUR-JPY and other yen crosses are also firmer, though by a lesser magnitude than USD-JPY, as a broader bid in the dollar has also been at play.
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OVERVIEW
USD trading broadly higher.
GBP higher on a report that the EU parliament will allow 'privileged' access to the single market.
CAD weaker after dropping in wholesale trade.
EUR softer after a drop in German ZEW survey.
AUD flat after RBA minutes signal rates to remain on hold.
SEK falls sharply after inflation miss.
HIGHLIGHT
The US Dollar is continuing its recovery from a three-year low hit last week with the Dollar index up 1.6% pointing towards a correction for the world's reserve currency.
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The dollar was fairly steady in N.Y. trade on Tuesday, leaving the DXY over its 20-day moving average of 89.43 through the day. There was no U.S. data to drive the FX market, though trend high Treasury yields helped the greenback generally. EUR-USD bottomed at 1.2320 before edging higher, while USD-JPY was steady, maintaining altitude over 107.00.
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Interest rates are the most potent background long leading indicators. Last week I wrote that I did not see them as having risen enough at this time to cause a recession, and noted that I thought they had to rise to at least about 3.25%, and for a sufficient period of time.
Here's why.
The below is a graph of 10 year treasury yields over the last five years, minus 2.6%, so that a 2.6% yield shows as zero:
Note that the 2013 "taper tantrum" caused yields to rise over 2.6% for about 1 year, from midyear 2013 to midyear 2014, and to a maximum of just over 3%.
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