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OTTAWA — Prime Minister Stephen Harper's top priority last year was to stay in power while touting his economic stewardship, looking for a "graceful exit" from Afghanistan and avoiding any "sexy initiatives" on climate change, diplomats at the U.S. Embassy in Canada wrote in a newly released confidential cable.

The uncensored cable, released through WikiLeaks, provides a remarkably candid assessment of how the embassy, under the direction of Ambassador David Jacobson, viewed the Canadian political scene at the start of 2010.

It is written in blunt, sometimes chatty, language and does not shy away from analyzing the political tactics of the governing Tories and opposition parties. The cable was sent to Hillary Clinton's U.S. State Department in Washington and to other U.S. embassies abroad.

In an interview Friday with Postmedia News, Jacobson declined to speak about the specific contents of the cable.

"While we do not comment on WikiLeaks, we certainly care about what's going on in Canada and we work very hard to understand it and explain it to people back in Washington," he said.

The subject heading at the top of the cable, written Jan. 4, 2010, is: Canada: Top Five Policy Priorities in 2010.

It says flatly: "PM Harper's top goal for 2010 is remaining in power, preferably without an election that the public does not want but, if need be, to force the weak opposition parties to bring on another election and bear the political consequences."

The cable says the governing Tories "increasingly see themselves as the 21st century's new 'natural governing party' for Canada, a title the Liberals gave themselves in the previous century."

It notes that while many pundits had incorrectly predicted that a 2009 election was a "sure bet," this had not happened.

"How long into 2010 the Conservatives can face off the opposition parties is a crapshoot; all four parties in Parliament must continually re-examine how well they might fare in a new election and craft their short-term tactics accordingly."

The Americans said Harper's Tories had the most to gain in an election, "given the many self-inflicted wounds suffered by the Liberals" under then-leader Michael Ignatieff.

The Liberals had not "hit upon a potentially winning issue," says the cable, and while they and the New Democrats had tried to turn the treatment of Afghan detainees into a "major embarrassment" for the government, this had not happened.

At the time of the cable, Canada was midway through a multibillion-dollar stimulus package designed by Harper's government to kick-start the ailing economy. The U.S. diplomats said "the Conservatives will need to demonstrate slow but steady progress on the economy and to claim credit, even when it is not necessarily due to them."

They wrote "the jury is still somewhat out" on why the recession had not hurt Canada as badly as other G8 nations — possibly because of either the government's fiscal policy, or the country's resource base and openness to international trade.

"Our view is that both elements were part of the serendipitous mix," said the cable.

"The Conservatives do not appear to have any bold measures up their sleeves to improve the economy, but appear content to wait for more results from their uncharacteristic stimulus packages and for a rising global economy — especially in the U.S. — to lift all boats."

Also at the time, Harper was complaining to U.S. President Barack Obama about "Buy America" provisions that could hurt Canadian exports. The diplomats say these repeated complaints to Obama had "become somewhat of a private joke," and that while Harper might benefit politically if he got his way, a failure would not "measurably" hurt him.

The cable is written just weeks after world leaders gathered for an international summit on climate change in Copenhagen — a summit that the Americans say Harper "somewhat grudgingly" attended.

"After an almost invisible role in Copenhagen, the Conservatives will still want to portray themselves as taking some proactive steps on the environment to counteract public impressions that Canada is merely following a U.S. lead (however true this may be)."

The cable said then-environment minister Jim Prentice was "sent out" to tell media scrums that Canada was a helpful participant in the talks and would work closely with the U.S.

"Now he must come up with some proposals that make Canada not seem merely to be going slavishly along with whatever its American 'big brother' decides to do — which will not be easy."

Ultimately, predicted the diplomats: "No big, sexy initiatives are likely from the Conservatives."

Also, at the time, Harper's Tories were planning a full pullout of troops from Afghanistan and it would be several months before they would backtrack, under U.S. pressure, by promising to leave about 1,000 military trainers in the country for another three years.

"For the present, the Conservatives will move toward as graceful as possible a withdrawal of Canadian Forces from Afghanistan by the end of 2011 as mandated under a parliamentary motion."

The cable said that unless the Tories were to win a majority government and "conditions on the ground in Afghanistan" improve significantly, it was doubtful the troops would stay.

"Diminishing public support for the mission, a sense that Canada had done more than its share, and unspoken relief that the U.S. surge will let Canada off the hook all argue against any Canadian political leader rethinking Canada's strategy."

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