Despite a rise in insurgent attacks this winter amid mild weather and the drawdown of international forces, Afghan troops are well-positioned, according to the coalition’s operations officer, to secure national elections in April — an outcome expected to boost confidence in the central government during the critical last months of the NATO campaign.

Maj. Gen. Joseph Osterman is finishing a 14-month run as Kabul-based deputy chief of staff for the International Security Assistance Force Joint Command. In his current position, and previously as ground forces commander in southwestern Afghanistan, the former Camp Pendleton Marine has worked closely with Afghan commanders.

The April 5 elections to replace President Hamid Karzai are a key test of the viability of the nation and its security forces.

About 33,000 U.S. troops among the coalition force of about 50,000 remain in Afghanistan, which puts the burden for securing the country during the elections on roughly 344,000 Afghan soldiers and police.

The Afghan National Security Forces have distributed about 250 tons of election materials and developed plans for securing polling centers nationwide, putting them “light years” ahead of where they were during national elections in 2009 and parliamentary elections in 2010, Osterman said.

The coalition anticipates increased violence in March, but insurgent attacks on polls are less likely because “that pits them against the people, and they will lose support,” Osterman said.

One insurgent group, Gulbuddin Hekmatyar’s Hezb-e-Islami, recently directed followers to participate in the elections, Osterman noted: “Some of the insurgent factions are starting to realize that the only way they can possibly reach their end states is to become a legitimate part of the government, which is ultimately the death of the insurgency.”

Insurgent attacks were up roughly 8 percent in January compared with the same period the previous year. Suicide and car bombings are up much more, by 80 percent in some areas.

But Osterman says Afghan forces are on the momentum and increasingly confident after their first fighting season last summer in the lead for security nationwide. Although they suffered heavy casualties in the most violent areas, such as Sangin, they ultimately held back the insurgency.

“They not only defended the area when the Taliban attacked this past summer, but they actually drove them back out of the Sangin area. That’s something we struggled with as coalition forces in 2010, 2011. So I see very, very positive gains in their ability to provide security even in contested areas,” Osterman said.

Another example he cited was the loya jirga, or national tribal assembly, in November.

“We had 15 major threat streams against the capital. The enemies of Afghanistan were bound and determined to disrupt that and cause a lot of damage,” Osterman said. Afghan forces “literally knocked down every one of them.

“Examples of that along the security realm give me a lot of confidence in where they are going and their ability to do things on their own,” Osterman said. “It is a very, very positive situation.”

The defense forces are independently planning and executing operations nationwide, fielding specialized units like explosives detection and medics, and coordinating with other government agencies, he said.