U.S., Europe struggle with response to Russia over Ukraine

Russian President Vladimir Putin (center) told the president of the European Commission that Russia could “take Kiev in two weeks” if it wanted to.

FROM WIRE REPORTS

Published: 02 September 2014 11:20 PM

Updated: 02 September 2014 11:32 PM

WASHINGTON — U.S. and European officials are struggling to craft a response as Russia bears down on Ukraine, hoping that new measures will have more impact than the economic sanctions imposed so far, without risking major damage to their own industries or a military escalation that could spiral out of control.

The officials are meeting this week to devise a new package of sanctions targeting Russia’s banking, energy and defense sectors but expressed skepticism that the measures would force Moscow to reverse course. President Barack Obama faced rising calls from advisers and Congress to move beyond economic actions to provide arms and more intelligence to Ukraine’s beleaguered military.

The mix of frustration at the inability to deter Moscow follows a shift on the battlefield, where Russian troops have turned the tide in favor of Ukrainian separatists. President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who last week suggested “statehood” for parts of eastern Ukraine, ratcheted up his rhetoric again by telling the president of the European Commission that Russia could “take Kiev in two weeks” if it wanted to.

On Tuesday, Russian military forces were spotted in both major rebel-held cities in eastern Ukraine, an official said, prompting Ukraine to declare that it now has to fight the Russian army, not just the separatists.

The statement by Col. Andriy Lysenko, a spokesman for Ukraine’s National Security Council, came after the country’s defense minister said Ukraine’s armed forces are expanding their strategy from just fighting separatists to facing the Russian army in a war that could cost “tens of thousands” of lives.

Lysenko said Russian troops had been seen in Donetsk and Luhansk, as well as other locations throughout the east. The claim could not be confirmed independently.

Putin foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov reaffirmed Moscow’s repeated denial that it has sent any soldiers into Ukraine, even though a rebel leader said last week that Russian servicemen on leave were among about 4,000 Russians fighting in Ukraine.

NATO meeting

The challenge by Putin came as Obama left Washington for Estonia on Tuesday to reassure Eastern European allies of U.S. support, after which he planned to attend a NATO summit in Wales to discuss Russian aggression. But while NATO discussed forming a rapid-response force to protect its eastern borders, it became ever clearer that the United States and Europe do not view Ukraine in the same light as they do alliance members like Estonia.

The NATO meeting “is about drawing a line west of Ukraine,” said Shashank Joshi, a senior researcher at the Royal United Services Institute. “No one will quite abandon Ukraine, but there is a recognition that there will be no confrontation with Russia on Ukrainian soil. The focus will be on NATO’s boundaries, on reassurance for Poland and the Baltic nations, and drawing a sharp distinction between those in and out of NATO.”

Democrats and Republicans in Congress urged Obama to step up direct assistance to Ukraine’s armed forces, reinforcing private advice he has been getting from some officials in the White House. The lawmakers and administration officials argue that economic sanctions have not been effective so far and that the Kremlin respects only strength.

“This is a watershed moment,” said Sen. Robert Menendez of New Jersey, the Democratic chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Menendez proposed sending anti-tank missiles and radar systems to Ukraine.

“Thousands of Russian troops have crossed into Ukraine,” he said. “They’ve come in with columns of tanks and armored vehicles and surface-to-surface missiles. This is no longer the premise that, oh, separatists are fighting.”

Administration officials are considering such moves.

“People are looking at all those options,” said one official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity while discussing internal deliberations. But Obama has so far been reluctant to take such steps out of concern that they would worsen the fighting and encourage escalation with a nuclear-armed Russia.

“As far as I can tell, the higher you go in government, the more reluctance there is to lean forward, and to lean forward is very important,” said Strobe Talbott, a former deputy secretary of state under President Bill Clinton and now president of the Brookings Institution.

‘Shadow of the bear’

Despite anger at Russian actions, there are few signs that Europe has the stomach for a more confrontational policy if the White House does not. In the end, European leaders whose economies are dependent on Russian energy are reluctant to widen the conflict beyond additional sanctions. Instead, they may seek an outcome that makes some concessions to the Kremlin.

“The center of gravity in Europe will be to recognize that Ukraine lives in the shadow of the bear,” said Nick Witney, former chief executive of the European Defense Agency and a fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. “We want to stabilize the situation in Ukraine and the Russians want to destabilize it, which is always much easier.”

It may be “deeply unappetizing,” Witney said, but Europe favors “some form of cease-fire and some degree of negotiation that will give eastern Ukraine more autonomy than Kiev wants and a clear sign that Ukraine won’t join NATO.”

Such a concept has driven a deep divide in Washington in recent days.

A group of U.S. and Russian experts and former government officials produced a 24-point plan during a meeting on the Finnish island of Boisto to defuse the confrontation over Ukraine. They proposed a cease-fire enforced by U.N. peacekeepers, a withdrawal of Ukrainian and Russian forces, partial amnesty and a guarantee that Ukraine remains unaligned.

Norbert Röttgen, head of the German Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee, said the most recent sanctions “really impressed Putin,” adding, “Now the Europeans must make clear that this was not a one-off show of strength, but is part of a system.”

But some analysts said Europe would not go beyond sanctions.

“They have to do something because Putin is behaving badly,” said Charles Grant, director of the Center for European Reform, “but it’s all they can do.”

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