Wall Street doesn't expect Google-Motorola deal to affect Apple

While the move may be good for the parties directly involved, Google's purchase of Motorola is not expected to have a major effect on Apple, Wall Street analysts have said.

Analysts took the opportunity to weigh in on Google's announcement this week that it would buy smartphone maker Motorola for $12.5 billion. And for the most part, Wall Street watchers don't expect the deal, which comes with some 17,000 patents owned by Motorola, to have a significant impact on Apple or its iPhone.

Piper Jaffray

Analyst Gene Munster sees Apple's iOS and Google's Android as both winners in the rapidly growing smartphone market. He expects Apple will sell about 36 million iOS devices in the current September quarter.

"While Android adoption is outpacing iOS, both platforms are share gainers," he wrote in a note to investors. "This confirms our belief that unlike desktops, there will be two or three winners in mobile (iOS and Android and possibly Microsoft)."

Looking longer term, he expects market share losers will be BlackBerry, Symbian and Palm's webOS. He believes Apple will slowly lower the price of the iPhone to compete better in emerging markets, like India, Latin America and Asia, where Android is gaining share much faster than iOS.

Munster expects the new alignment between Motorola and Google will also help the struggling Google TV platform, as Google will be able to leverage Motorola's assets in the set-top box market. He has also been a longterm believer that Apple will launch a full-fledged high-definition television set in the next few years.

Morgan Stanley

Analyst Katy Huberty still expects iPhone shipments and market share to accelerate in the face of the Google-Motorola deal. She said the $12.5 billion purchase should be viewed by investors as neutral to Apple.

"On the one hand, the acquisition highlights the risk that Apple's IP portfolio presents to the Android ecosystem and the competitive strength of Apple's vertically integrated products," she wrote. "On the other hand, MMI's 17,000 patents and Google's $27 billion cash after the deal raise legal risks for Apple."

But in the near-term, she believes that any disruption in the Android ecosystem that may stem from an alignment between Google and Motorola could help Apple and sales of its iPhone.

Deutsche Bank

Chris Whitmore said he remains "confident" in Apple's position following the Google-Motorola deal. He noted that Google paid a 60 percent premium in buying Motorola, suggesting that the search giant is threatened in its current position.

He also believes the deal will create confusion within the Android developer community, and could alienate other Android device makers like HTC and Samsung.

Whitmore highlighted Apple's recent legal success against Samsung and HTC in patent disputes as evidence that third-party protection from Motorola may not help as much as Google hopes. In his eyes, the basis for Apple's case against Android and Motorola has not changed.

In addition to a patent grab, Whitmore also sees the deal as an opportunity for Google to attempt to replicate Apple's approach with iOS, marrying hardware and software development together to create a more cohesive and user-friendly experience.

"Google surely recognizes the poorly marketed cadence of its OS releases and growing product, pricing and branding confusion among consumers and developers," he wrote. "While this acquisition may have been made under the guise of IP enhancement, its roots may lie in Android's forking, inconsistent user experience and poor momentum in tablets."

RBC Capital Markets

Analyst Mike Abramsky doesn't believe that Google's acquisition will necessarily mitigate some of the intellectual property battles that are currently underway in the industry. For example, he said most of Motorola's patents are fundamental wireless inventions, while Apple's patents are related to multi-touch and user interface, and Research in Motion's patents are focused on mobile data synchronization.

But the deal does pave the way for what Abramsky called a "Nexus on steroids," referring to the "Nexus" brand Google uses to introduce its own hardware created in partnership with third-party manufacturers. He expects that the "Motoblur" skin that Motorola puts atop Android will also disappear after this deal. "And no one will miss it, in our view," he said.

The Motorola-Google alliance may affect other Android manufacturers like Samsung, HTC and LG, and it could also put additional pressure on RIM and Microsoft, who are vying to become the third-largest platform. However, Abramsky does not see the deal changing the competitive landscape for Apple.

In fact, in the near term, he sees Apple having some interim competitive advantages as Google's purchase potentially disrupts the Android landscape. Apple will be positioned to capitalize on any struggles with the launch of both the iPhone 5 and iOS 5 this fall.

However, longer term, he said the Google-Motorola deal could reduce Android fragmentation and improve software-hardware integration. That could make Motorola a better competitor to Apple at the high end of the smartphone market.

I don't see any reason for Apple (or MS for that matter) to feel threatened by the Moto purchase. I see little to no impact since Apple generally plays to a different consumer model anyway.

The only change of consequence for Apple might be from a legal perspective if at all. Where Apple/Microsoft have been trying to outmaneuver Google on the patent front, this will tend to level the playing field a bit, as well as bring IP auctions back down from the stratosphere. Just not as urgent a need for more ammunition with all the big players capable of injuring the others once/if this deal passes muster. But in any case it doesn't take an industry financial analyst to understand this really minimally affects Apple. No story here.

Even though a number of articles I've read said that Motoblur kinda sucks, I wonder why Motorola continued to use it.

That's the problem with Moto, they don't seem to pay attention to what's going on around them and I guess that's why they continued to lose market share and money. I hope that Google forces Moto to use their own reference UI and get rid of Motoblur. I still don't expect for Moto to do any better because that company is ready to go under no matter what unless Google can get rid of all the older executive management and get some fresh blood. Ever since Moto split into two divisions, MMI has been losing money for shareholders and that's even with using free Android. What pathetic way to run a company.

Yes, I just cannot see the Moto deal being about patents only, not for $12.5B. \

Well, the theory is (and its extremely plausible) is that Motorola refused to sell the patents by themselves. Essentially, Google was forced to buy the patents, and pay a premium for the rest of the company, because they were in a corner (esp. with the threat to sue other Android makers, and MS showing interest in buying Moto).

Well, the theory is (and its extremely plausible) is that Motorola refused to sell the patents by themselves. Essentially, Google was forced to buy the patents, and pay a premium for the rest of the company, because they were in a corner (esp. with the threat to sue other Android makers, and MS showing interest in buying Moto).