Aggressiveness is a characteristic that tends to reward fantasy
owners more times than not. In the NFL, an offensive line will sometimes
hold up long enough to give the quarterback enough time to beat
man coverage down the field and make the defense look foolish against
a fierce pass rush. More often than not, though, when a defense
brings the heat and forces the action, crisis management becomes
the name of the game for the opposing team.

In that same vein, I hope to apply that same kind of pressure to
the owners in all of my leagues by beating my opponents to the punch
in regards to personnel moves. Sometimes, reaching a conclusion
about a player too quickly results in making a bad situation worse.
However, coming to a correct conclusion two weeks or two minutes
quicker than your opponents is considered foresight and can often
lead to fantasy championships.

Fantasy owners can be a uneasy lot, knowing that one two-or-three-game
losing streak can wreak irreparable damage to his/her team’s
chances to make a visit to the fantasy postseason. But just as it
is in the NFL and in life, it’s hard to land the big prize
by playing scared. Thus, I will strive each week to help each of
you become a smart blitzer, so to speak.

There are decisions we make in life that we know almost immediately
are good or bad. This is one of those good ones…

After months of wavering on whether or not I should consume more
football than I already do, I finally gave into the billion-dollar
empire of the NFL and decided to pony up the $60 necessary to
watch any NFL game any time I wanted. Within five minutes of purchasing
the Season-Plus subscription to NFL Game Rewind, it became obvious
to me that I needed to “up my game”. Here’s
why:

In addition to providing the coaches’ tape in which fans
get to see all-22 footage, Game Rewind offers the full broadcast
and a condensed 30-minute version of games which essentially removes
all the filler in between plays, leaving fans with a nice, tidy
version of a NFL game that can be watched in about the same amount
of time as most people spend watching a sitcom. After doing some
quick math, it made sense to me that since I spend anywhere between
15-20 hours (usually more) putting together a column each week,
why not watch each of the games myself, allowing me to become
a more knowledgeable owner while sharing my thoughts and insights
with you at the same time?

All right, enough about Game Rewind as I have no deal on the
table currently to promote their services. But for the serious
fantasy owner who gets tired of taking somebody else’s word
on how a player is performing or relying on a box score to tell
you the story of the game, Game Rewind offers you a pretty valuable
tool in your quest for a fantasy title.

Now, let’s get to how I want to help you – the fantasy
owner – going forward. In short, it is my goal to watch
each condensed game every week and provide a summation of what
stuck out to me the most in that game. While I hope to get more
technical with my observations in the coming weeks (much like
a scout or general manager would), I wanted to keep the first
edition fairly basic while also providing the same kind of forward-thinking
fantasy advice I strive to bring you each week.

Without further ado, let’s give this new car a test drive:

Cardinals-Rams

Although it isn’t a commonly-accepted practice, the Cardinals
may be wise to make Larry Fitzgerald the default No. 1 option
on just about every passing play. What do I mean? Essentially,
on the few plays in which the defense doesn’t put a safety
over the top, it would be smart for Kevin Kolb to simply give
Fitzgerald a target. Why do I say that? Given the current woes
of the Cardinals’ offensive line, I’m not exactly
sure that unit can be trusted to give Kolb enough time to get
to his second read...after giving up 17 sacks over two games,
it is fair to say the line is THAT bad. The Rams knew their biggest
offensive mismatch coming into the game was Danny Amendola, but
one has to wonder how St. Louis saw it was beneficial to give
Steven Jackson just five carries in the first half. While he has
slowed down some in recent years, he hasn’t slowed much.
After all, we are talking about a 29-year-old RB with five percent
body fat whose YPC has consistently been league average or better
behind one of the worst lines in the league. With Amendola out
for at least six weeks, it would be surprising if the Rams don’t
increase their reliance on Jackson.

Fantasy implications: It’s
a bit ironic these two teams start this column off and play in
the same division because each has a player that needs to be in
fantasy lineups each week almost regardless of their supporting
cast or opponent since their ability essentially supersedes their
matchup. What that does mean, however, is their owner is going
to have to live with a little bit of inconsistency. While the
emergence of Daryl
Richardson and the lack of passing-game use have been discouraging
to this point for Jackson’s owners, I’m not sure the Rams can
afford to scale back his touches anymore with Amendola out. While
Brandon
Gibson appears to benefit the most from Amendola’s absence,
I’m not so sure we don’t start seeing a lot more of Steve
Smith, who is a natural replacement for Amendola in the slot
even if he lacks the chemistry Bradford had with his top receiver.
However, given that Smith was inactive for this game and Austin
Pettis was, there’s reason to believe Pettis may be the first
in line to replace Amendola.

Eagles-Steelers

Is it time to panic if you're a Jeremy
Maclin owner?

Maybe it ends up being nothing, but it seemed to me that Philadelphia
ran the ball a lot to the left side in the first half and to the
right in the second half (after doing a lot of damage against
NYG to the right last week). Jeremy Maclin’s last four weeks
have been discouraging – to say the least – but I
don’t see much reason for concern, especially since there
has been no news regarding his hip pointer lately. (Maclin just
missed on a TD reception and was interfered with on another 40-50
yard throw in this contest.) After being miscast in the Eagles’
defense last season, CB Nnamdi Asomugha is still not living up
to his reputation this season and has graded negatively in three
of his last four games, already having committed four penalties
this season. As for the Steelers, they ran a lot of draws for
Rashard Mendenhall and generated bigger holes in the running game
than I have seen all season. I was actually more impressed with
Mendenhall’s debut than Adrian Peterson’s in Week
1 as Mendenhall appeared to be quicker than he was before his
injury, which doesn’t seem possible less than 10 months
after surgery.

Fantasy implications: I’m not sure if there is ever a buy-low
time for the elite fantasy RBs like LeSean McCoy, but if you currently
have a RB like Stevan Ridley or Alfred Morris that feels like
they may be a bit too good to be true, it may not be a bad idea
to float those backs and another potential starter at another
position to the McCoy owner. While I don’t usually agree
with Jon Gruden’s player analysis, I tend to agree with
him when he says McCoy is the closest thing we’ve seen to
Barry Sanders since the Hall of Famer retired. I still have little
doubt Maclin will fulfill my preseason expectations as a potential
low-end WR1 in fantasy, even if he seems to get nicked up a bit
more than his owners would like to see. I was most surprised by
Mendenhall, who makes it 3-for-3 on backs outperforming my expectations
coming off ACL surgery. It seems unreal that Jamaal Charles. Peterson
and Mendenhall - especially the last two – have been so
effective at the 10-month mark when the standard recovery timetable
used to be anywhere from 12-18 months not too long ago.

Ravens-Chiefs

Jamaal
Charles routinely getting to the edge early to generate many
of his rushing yards early, but Baltimore did a much better job
of beating him to the spot in the second half after stacking the
box, something future opponents would be wise to do from the get-go.
Of course, the losses of Terrell
Suggs and Jarrett Johnson in the offseason have made the Ravens
a middle-of-the-road run-stopping unit. Fumbling is getting to
be a concern with three over the past two weeks, two of which
resulted in turnovers. His current workload is not only a concern
for a running back of his size, but for any RB in general, especially
one coming off a severe knee injury. In this contest, it really
stuck out to me how often Dwayne
Bowe is the one and only read for Matt
Cassel on straight drop-back passes. On the surface, this
game appeared to be Joe Flacco regressing to the same quarterback
he was a few years ago who thrived at home but bottomed out on
the road, but after watching the game, I’m more inclined to believe
that penalties at key times disrupted any kind of offensive flow
the Ravens tried to establish, ultimately killing a number of
Baltimore drives.

Fantasy implications: Charlie Weis must really be a miracle worker
because given the number of times I have seen Cassel since Weis
left in 2010, he should not be a NFL starting quarterback (a ridiculously
easy schedule in 2010 had something to do with his career year
as well). Regarding Charles – despite his recent numbers
– the big questions each week should probably be: 1) how
quickly defenses stack the box against Kansas City and ultimately
“set the edge”, forcing him to run inside and 2) how
long can he hold up under his current workload. I’m sure
people aren’t going to understand my continued support for
Peyton Hillis – granted he is not Charles (quite the opposite
actually) – but I don’t like Charles’ ability
to hold up or even be effective long-term at this rate. And now,
with Brady Quinn under center for at least a week, I don’t
think Charles’ touches will decrease. While Charles rarely
ever takes a big hit, I fear for any RB in today’s NFL averaging
31 touches/game over an extended stretch.

Browns-Giants

Josh Gordon’s first touchdown came as a result of the Giants’
inexplicable decision to use LB Chase Blackburn to guard the slot
receiver. That decision was made worse by S Antrel Rolle’s
slow reaction to Gordon thanks to a token play-fake by QB Brandon
Weeden. However, Gordon could have actually scored a third touchdown
if Weeden hadn’t thrown a poor ball on a slant pattern in
the red zone. Victor Cruz is nearly impossible to guard –
as in Wes Welker in-his-prime – not exactly breaking news,
I know. His lateral agility is among the best in the league today
and it shows in the number of yards he collects after the catch.
The Giants love to run the misdirection toss play with RB David
Wilson, something I saw a few times in the preseason and again
in Week 5. While I’m not quite sure if it is the team’s
concession to the rookie since he often reversed field at Virginia
Tech or just a clever play drawn up by OC Kevin Gilbride to accentuate
his speed, it’s something that I believe we’ll be
seeing a time or two more from Wilson down the road.

Fantasy implications: Weeden’s
strong arm certainly matches up well with Gordon’s ability to
go deep , but even with reports that Gordon “turned a corner”
in practice last week, I’d be hesitant to put much faith in the
Browns’ supplemental draft pick quite yet. As hard as it is for
me to believe I’m actually typing this, the Browns need Mohamed
Massaquoi back in the worst way in order to let Gordon grow
as a receiver this year and not be pressed into a lead-receiver
role just because he has the talent. Cruz’s ability speaks for
itself, which makes it that much harder to believe he was considered
to be one of the Giants’ final cuts during the 2010 preseason.
Wilson’s 40-yard TD run was a thing of beauty as he shot through
the Browns’ secondary untouched in a heartbeat. While no single
run will do the trick, the fact that he didn’t make a glaring
mistake in this game should help open the door for him to establish
a more regular role in the offense in the coming weeks.

Packers- Colts

In what should have been a plus-matchup for Cedric Benson, he
managed to rush for less than 3.0 YPC before injuring his foot,
which will probably end his season. A highly questionable roughing-the-passer
call on Nick Perry in the first half– which negated a likely
fumble return for a touchdown for the Packers’ defense –
and an overturned interception by CB Tramon Williams in which
the ball did not move as he fell to the ground probably changed
the course of this game and the perception of the Green Bay defense.
In no way am I trying to defend the Packers’ inability to
hold a 21-3 lead, but 28-3 probably eliminates any chance of a
comeback. Donald Brown isn’t getting into the end zone,
but given how poorly the Colts’ offensive line has blocked
for Vick Ballard so far, the Colts need Brown’s speed on
the field to get to the edge to have any semblance of a consistent
running game. (I’ll be interested to see how much this changes
as the Colts face a string of weak defenses in the coming weeks.)
Dwayne Allen has seen 44 fewer pass-play snaps this season than
Coby Fleener, but despite missing Week 1, the Clemson alum has
played two more snaps overall than his pass-catching complement.

Fantasy implications: Generally speaking, I understand most of
the comments analysts make about certain players, even if I don’t
always agree with them. However, the notion that Benson was helping
this offense confuses me. Here’s a player who rushed for
3.5 YPC with a long run of 11 yards through 4 ½ games and
71 carries this season. By comparison, Alex Green broke loose
for a 41-yard run on his ninth and final rushing attempt of this
game, showing impressive speed to set the Packers up for their
final score. Speaking of running the football, Brown recorded
at least 16 carries in each of his last three games, but he’s
likely out the next 2-3 weeks following a knee scope, leaving
Ballard with a trio of juicy matchups over that time. Given the
fact that Andrew Luck isn’t throwing to his running backs
(seven catches on 11 targets), there isn’t much upside in
PPR leagues. But it is hard not to like Ballard’s chances
of managing decent flex value against the likes of the Jets, Browns
and Titans – assuming Brown does not return before then.

Dolphins-Bengals

It is amazing how much Reggie Bush has improved as a runner.
While he still has some of the elusiveness we remember from his
college days as well as his time with the Saints, he is much more
decisive runner than he was even two years ago. It was hard to
get a good read on BenJarvus Green-Ellis in this game simply because
Miami’s top-ranked rush defense lived up to its billing,
at least against him. “Law Firm” ran as hard as he
always does, but he offers about as much big-play potential as
Benson did during his Bengals’ career. (Green-Ellis hasn’t
broken a 20+ yard run since Week 15 of the 2010 season with New
England.) Fantasy owners who chased Brian Hartline’s Week
4 success likely came away disappointed in his effort against
Cincinnati. However, the Dolphins led for the last 36+ minutes
of the game, so Ryan Tannehill attempted a career-low 26 passes,
meaning panic is unwarranted. After watching the two last two
games on Hartline, I’ll admit I was wrong about him. He’s
not a special talent, but all he needed to be a productive NFL
receiver was a decent quarterback to believe in him. I think we
have seen over the past two weeks that Tannehill is well on his
way to becoming something more than a “decent quarterback”.

Fantasy implications: One of the reasons that pushed me over
the top in regards to signing up for Game Rewind was so I could
finally speak intelligently about players like Hartline, who was
essentially cast into a deep-threat role under the previous coaching
regime. I’m not entirely sure Bush is convinced he is 100%
recovered from his knee injury, but he’s close. Even though
Jorvorskie Lane and Daniel Thomas appear to be the short-yardage
backs of choice in Miami, Bush is a player I want for the rest
of the season in fantasy, especially after looking at the rest
of his schedule. On the other hand, Green-Ellis is trending the
wrong way in a hurry after an impressive opener, failing to top
3.6 YPC in any of his last four games, including average-at-best
performances against the Browns and Jaguars’ poor run defenses.
Then again, there was a reason why a “feature back”
like him was drafted so low in fantasy. Bernard Scott showed just
the kind of burst the Bengals needed in the running before he
was lost for the season with a torn ACL. While Brian Leonard is
the next in line, owners in deeper leagues should want to consider
Cedric Peerman as a player who may eventually force a committee
with “Law Firm”.

Falcons-Redskins

So far, it appears Atlanta pulled one over on Jacquizz Rodgers
and his fantasy owners. Certainly, his snaps have gone up this
season (148 through five games after seeing just 319 all of last
season), but Michael Turner has touched the ball on 43.5% of his
snaps (81 touches on 186 snaps) while Rodgers has just 41 touches
on 148 snaps (27.7%). In a comment that should already be familiar
to anyone who has seen Turner run lately, it is inconceivable
to me how a team that wants to play with the pace and pass-heavy
approach the Falcons do that Turner continues to see the workload
he does. Yes, he is doing fine statistically, but each of his
last two TDs have come on plays the defense simply fell asleep
and the majority of his runs appear to be over before they start.
There is no doubt in my mind that Rodgers would not only be more
productive with the touches Turner has received, but the team
would also avoid putting Matt Ryan into “comeback mode”
while they wait for the running game to “warm up”.
While Alfred Morris is no speed demon himself, he has the one
trait no recent Mike Shanahan RB has had – the ability to
stay healthy. However, let’s hope that OC Kyle Shanahan
was simply complimenting Morris’ hard-charging running style,
vision, quick feet and strong lower body when he said the rookie
has “some of Terrell Davis” in him.

Fantasy implications: Turner owners will inevitably suggest his
production speaks for itself, but this offense is not clicking
on all cylinders and has been forced to rally twice in consecutive
weeks against weaker opponents in part because I doubt defensive
coordinators lose much sleep over Turner anymore. At this point,
it will probably take a painful loss for Atlanta to change their
ways in the backfield, but I stated earlier in the year that Turner
is a back who doesn’t scare me in fantasy simply because
I have a lot of confidence in the fact that he won’t break
a long run as long as the defense doesn’t severely blow
an assignment. I have no problem with him being the main short-yardage
option or the “four-minute back” that comes in to
put the game away against a tired defense, but it is actually
hard for me to watch him run now.

Seahawks-Panthers

Commentators often say football is an emotional game. If that
is the case, why does Carolina wait so long to get Steve
Smith – the emotional center of this offense – into the game?
I’ve seen Philadelphia open the game on a number of occasions
in recent years with a play-action deep throw to DeSean
Jackson and don’t see why the Panthers couldn’t do the same.
While he saw 13 targets in this contest, too many of those came
in obvious passing situations, which is a recipe for disaster
against Seattle’s physical cornerbacks. Of course, it doesn’t
help matters when Cam
Newton is fighting himself as a passer and his receivers and
backs drop the few easy throws he had in this contest. To be fair,
though, I don’t think a single Carolina offensive player played
all that well, the second time in the last three weeks that has
been the case. Even though his numbers were average (for him),
I am continually impressed with Marshawn
Lynch’s ability to get yards after contact. And although his
overall numbers are going to be average at best in the Seahawks’
overly conservative offense, I’ve seen Golden
Tate flash a couple of times this season, something of a surprise
since he has been hyped and disappointed for a few years now.

Fantasy implications: Even though C Ryan Kalil was grading out
as one of the worst run-blocking centers prior to his season-ending
Lisfranc injury, the running game can’t be expected to perform
better without the Pro Bowl pivot. In all likelihood, Newton will
be asked to carry even more of the offense now and one would assume
with such a dreadful defense, his numbers will come through the
air. I’ll be anxious to see if the bye week helps the Panthers
get their offense on track. The inability to get Smith the ball
nearly as much this season (completion rate is at 55%, down from
61% last season) as the sparkplug WR needed a 13-target game in
Week 5 just to get back in the same target rate he saw last season.
As for Lynch, his fantasy owners already know not to expect a
ton of catches, but they are probably praying that Seattle somehow
learns to trust Russell Wilson enough in the coming weeks so he
can attempt more than 25 passes per game, which he hasn’t
done in four straight weeks.

Bears-Jaguars

I’m not sure what was more surprising: the fact this was a 3-3
game midway through the third quarter or that Jacksonville has
been outscored at home this season 95-20. Let that second nugget
wash over you for a second. Now consider that Maurice
Jones-Drew has seen a total of 31 touches over the last two
weeks and no more than 13 rushing attempts in any of those three
home games and we can begin to understand why Jacksonville is
1-4. Justin
Blackmon didn’t look to be pressing near as much in this game
and showed some of the same ability to get open that he did during
the preseason, but Chicago took that away pretty quickly once
the Jags thought they had found something. Not surprisingly, Cecil
Shorts seems to be the only player capable of threatening
a defense down the field, which will continue to make this offense
a below-average unit more often than not. As for Chicago, the
defense held Jacksonville in check as long as it needed to before
the Bears fired up the passing attack and got a couple of TD returns
from Lance
Briggs and Charles
Tillman. Matt
Forte once again looked like the same all-purpose monster
he has always been, which is great news as the Bears head into
their bye.

Fantasy implications: The Jags’
offense simply cannot be expected to hang with the likes of Houston
and Chicago if MJD – who averaged 4.8 YPC in those two games –
isn’t getting 12 carries per half, much less a game as was the
case in those two losses. For what it is worth, the road ahead
should get better for MJD after the bye with Oakland, Green Bay
and Indianapolis serving as three of the next four opponents.
While I’m sure I’ll talk about the Bears’ offense more in future
weeks, this game was all about Chicago’s defense, especially in
the second half. Brandon
Marshall continues to see a ton of targets and is a matchup
nightmare, as expected. But ultimately how consistent Marshall
will be going forward is going to rely a lot upon how often “Bad
Jay
Cutler” shows up compared to how often “Good Jay
Cutler” sees the field. We saw both again in this game.

Titans-Vikings

If indifference can show up on tape, then I believe that is exactly
what I saw from Tennessee’s offense. The offensive line
is starting to rival Arizona’s as the worst in the NFL and
can only seem to give Chris Johnson a hole to run through on about
4-5 plays per game. I’ve also seen no fire from the front
five outside of the Houston game, which is particularly concerning
since HC Mike Munchak’s background is on the offensive line.
Of the three Titans’ games I have seen thus far, this game
was the first time that Johnson appeared to be anticipating contact
(in the bad way) – at least on his first few carries –
which is hardly surprising when we consider how often has been
hit in the backfield in 2012. That’s not to say he was hesitant
in the hole, but it was the most hesitant I’ve seen him
this season. Much like Johnson, Adrian Peterson didn’t see
much success on traditional running plays as both players saw
the majority of their yards come via draws and delays. The use
of the tight ends (or lack thereof) in this game was startling.
Matt Hasselbeck did not target Jared Cook at all in the first
three quarters while Kyle Rudolph was absent from the game plan
until late – when it seemed Christian Ponder began to force-feed
him the ball – against the worst defense vs. TEs.

Fantasy implications: One of the main reasons I wanted to make
a move to this format was to better identify why players like
Johnson are struggling (and, contrary to popular belief, not because
I wanted to see more of my two least favorite NFL play-callers
– Chris Palmer and Bill Musgrave). I went back to some of
his 2009 tape for answers and two things became immediately clear:
1) very little defensive penetration and 2) a number of his big
runs came out of shotgun. In that 2,000-yard season, Johnson averaged
11.4 YPC out of 36 “gun-runs” and 7.5 YPC on 132 carries
in single-back formations. In short, Johnson needs space to run
and hasn’t performed well in two-back sets ever since he
became a pro, so the Titans are wasting their time when they do
it. His on-field demeanor will likely never be seen as charming,
but I have my doubts that his attitude is what is driving this
franchise down, which some people seem to be suggesting. I am
anxious to see how he performs against Pittsburgh this Thursday
– minus Troy Polamalu and LaMarr Woodley – because
if he can gash the Steelers for a big run or two like another
struggling back did (Darren McFadden), the schedule provides a
possible three-game window for owners to get out from this potential
mess of a situation in Tennessee since the poor run defenses of
the Bills and Colts await in Weeks 7 and 8.

Bills-Niners

Michael
Crabtree and Vernon
Davis were open at will in this game as Buffalo’s defense
continues to underachieve in a big way, giving up an almost-unthinkable
300+ yards rushing AND 300+ yards passing. While San Francisco
did some things to throw the Bills off-balance and Alex
Smith was displaying pinpoint accuracy on many of his throws,
there were at least two occasions in which Buffalo lacked awareness
and effort in chasing down a ball carrier down on long runs from
Frank
Gore and Smith. The offense wasn’t much better either with
a woeful 115 yards passing. Brad
Smith enjoyed a 35-yard run out of the “Wildcat” and C.J.
Spiller also had a nice 12-yard run, but outside of those
two plays, there wasn’t much to like about Buffalo’s performance.

Fantasy implications: There’s simply no excuse for the
Bills’ defense to be this bad. In three losses to the Jets,
Patriots and Niners, Buffalo has surrendered a minimum of 45 points
in each game. To be blunt, this tells me the Bills either have
little pride or little direction on defense. (With Dave Wannstedt
in charge, it would not surprise me if it was more of the latter.)
Meanwhile, San Francisco doesn’t blow opportunities and
it doesn’t often give opponents many chances to exploit
the few weaknesses it does have. When the Niners have a chance
to tackle somebody, they do it. When they grab a lead, they usually
hold and extend it. Merril Hoge (from ESPN’s NFL Matchup)
said earlier this season that San Francisco has the league’s
best offense. While that is a bit of a stretch in terms of overall
numbers, he may be right when it comes to efficiency.

Broncos-Patriots

Seeing New England run its offense at breakneck speed certainly
makes for an enjoyable watch, but I am fairly certain defenses
will start picking up the Pats’ tendency to run off-tackle and
stretch plays just about every time they choose to operate at
that speed, if they haven’t already. Of course, tackling Stevan
Ridley or Brandon
Bolden is a chore no matter how quickly the offense moves,
so it may not matter if the defense knows what is coming. By my
highly unofficial count, Eric
Decker has drawn pass interference penalties in the end zone
on at least three potential touchdown catches this season. There’s
no denying Demaryius
Thomas is the physically-superior player, but ball security
(three fumbles already this season) has become a small concern
with him. I’m also a bit surprised by the lack of routes he is
asked to run. Willis
McGahee’s dropped pass on a fourth down and a late fumble
– both in the fourth quarter – may be just the opening rookie
Ronnie
Hillman needs to secure a larger piece of the backfield pie
although the rookie was getting more snaps in recent weeks anyway.
Still, there’s very little chance that McGahee doesn’t remain
the clear lead back in Denver this season simply because the Broncos
have taken such care in managing his workload thus far.

Fantasy implications: There is no longer any doubt that New England
learned a lesson from last season: no threat in the running game
typically leads to a lack of a ring at the end of the season.
As long as Ridley doesn’t make fumbling a habit –
the very thing that led to his reduced role last season –
his job security should be a non-issue. However, much like Tom
Coughlin, if there is a coach who cannot stand ball-security issues,
it is Bill Belichick. With the amount of plays the Pats can run
nowadays (averaging just under 78 through five games), Ridley
is a very good bet for 20 carries on a weekly basis if he simply
does not fumble. Since most of the Broncos’ difficult opponents
are out of the way now, don’t be surprised if McGahee has
a strong month-plus, with my only concern being that the soon-to-be
31-year-old begins to wear down after about 200+ carries.

Chargers-Saints

I’m always amazed when a player dominates early on in a
game only to disappear for the next two-plus quarters. Such was
the case Sunday night for Malcom Floyd, who had two catches for
71 yards on the Chargers’ second drive of the game alone
but was not heard from again until San Diego needed to rally on
the final drive. As mismatches go, Floyd’s 6-5 frame and
ability to get deep should have been exploited all game long against
a horrible Saints’ secondary. Granted, he did see eight
targets, but from 5:45 in the second quarter until the six-minute
mark of the fourth quarter (a play Philip Rivers was intercepted),
Floyd wasn’t targeted once. Robert Meachem caught two touchdowns,
but I haven’t yet seen any hint of this “complete
receiver” HC Norv Turner was talking about upon signing
him this offseason. I’ll get more into it down the road,
but the Saints’ lack of stubbornness with the run and the
distribution of those carries in concerning. With the only notable
loss on the offensive line being LG Carl Nicks, the Saints have
gone from a team averaging 4.9 YPC and 132.9 yards rushing in
2011 to 3.9 YPC and 75.2 yards in 2012. Darren Sproles (averaging
5.4 YPC) is averaging just nine touches while Pierre Thomas (4.9
YPC) has as many carries as Mark Ingram (37) despite outgaining
him by 2.0 YPC. Based on last season, this change has little to
do with the loss of HC Sean Payton since current OC Pete Carmichael
called plays for the final 10 regular-season games, when the offense
was more productive than with Payton running the show.

Fantasy implications: The receiver position is typically an inconsistent
one in fantasy due to game situation, talent and a whole host
of other factors, but it doesn’t make fantasy owners feel
any better to see their player dominate a drive only to not get
targeted for nearly 30 minutes in a plus-matchup. Vincent Brown’s
eventual return should go a long way in helping Floyd be more
consistent. Meachem still looks like a matchup-fantasy WR to me
right now, but with some success under their collective belts
now, Rivers may be ready to trust Meachem a bit more. Sproles’
part-time role isn’t a surprise, but with the amount of
time New Orleans has trailed this season, it is odd that his passing-game
numbers haven’t spiked. The player I feel truly sad for
is Thomas, who continues to suffer statistically despite being
one of the league’s most effective and highest-graded running
backs.

Texans-Jets

In short, this game was much more about what Houston failed to
do than it was about what New York did. With no threat of a running
game (and thus, little reason to acknowledge play-action) and
a passer who completed less than 50% of his passes for a fourth
consecutive game in Mark Sanchez, Houston continually let the
likes of Jason Hill, Antonio Cromartie, Jeremy Kerley and Jeff
Cumberland get behind the defense. After putting together a first
drive one would expect from a complete (and healthy) offense playing
against a shorthanded defense, I very much got the feeling the
Texans took their foot off the pedal in what was easily their
worst overall performance of the season. The one Jets’ player
I respected the most entering the game – Jeremy Kerley –
was the one New York player I was most impressed with from this
game. And for Houston, I’d be remiss if I don’t mention
J.J. Watt…what an incredible player. There are plenty of
defensive backs who don’t get their hands on as many balls
as he does or situational pass rushers who sack the quarterback
as often he does and that two things alone don’t even begin
to tell the story on the impact he has on a game.

Fantasy implications: Watching
a running game like the Texans’ on the same day I watch a running
game like the Titans really provides an eye-opening display of
how a running game should work vs. one that appears to have no
clue. In the Houston games I’ve watched this season, I’m not sure
I can recall five times combined in which Arian
Foster has been forced to dodge a tackler in the backfield
while Chris
Johnson is lucky to go one half with that kind of success.
The loss of Brian
Cushing figures to have a substantial impact on the defense,
but not so much that the Texans fall too far down the ladder in
regards to fantasy defenses. With three useful fantasy games in
five tries playing for a dreadful offense, it might be about time
to think about giving Kerley a turn at WR3 or a flex if those
spots are of some concern to your fantasy team…at least until
the inevitable Tim
Tebow promotion, that is.

Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006, appeared in USA
Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine in each of the last
two seasons and served as a weekly fantasy football analyst for
106.7 The Fan (WJFK – Washington, D.C). He is also a member
of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.