Ross speaks on topics including Indonesia, Bali, Cancer and wellness. Also on social matters within our community.

Saturday, July 5, 2014

Indonesia's presidency, and democracy, on a knife edge

Ross B. Taylor

On
Wednesday Indonesian's will democratically elect a new president as the
incumbent, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, (SBY) completes his final term.
Until a few weeks ago, the most likely successor was tipped to be a small-scale
businessman from Java, turned governor of Jakarta,
Joko Widodo. ‘Jokowi’ as he is affectionately known, is seen as a moderate and
whilst tipped to be far more domestically focused than his predecessor - who
has held great affection for Australia - is considered a candidate that
Australia could work comfortably with.

Not so
his main rival who, with the support of big money and a slick election campaign,
is making a late run for the presidency of the world’s third largest democracy
and home to over 240 million people; mostly of the Islamic faith. Prabowo
Subianto (63) is suddenly looking a ‘good bet’ in winning the presidency from
under the nose of ‘Jokowi’ and the implications are both significant and
worrying for Australia.

So why
the sudden change of fortunes, what are the implications for
Australia-Indonesia relations, and more importantly the stability of our
region?

The
‘Jokowi’ presidential campaign has been disastrous due to poor and disorganised
planning and strategy, combined with the perception that he would be a puppet
of his party leader, and former president, Megawati Sukarnoputri.

Meanwhile,
the Prabowo campaign has been slick, well executed and has the backing of
‘significant money’ and support from a number of leading media moguls who see
‘value’ in having the former military strongman elected. Already Jakarta is
rife with rumours that the extremely wealthy Aburizal Bakrie, chairman of one
of the nation’s largest political parties (Golkar), and owner of large media
and mining interests throughout the archipelago, has poured huge money into the
Probowo campaign in return for support for his mining interests should he be
elected.

The two candidates
are now ‘neck-and-neck’ as tomorrow’s election nears.

Probowo
presents some unique challenges and concerns for Australia, the USA and also
countries such as China. So who is Prabowo Subianto and what is he really like?

The good
news is that he is ‘very western’ and having spent much of his formative years
in Europe, Probowo is very comfortable in dealing with western nations and
speaks fluent English. He is also charming, intelligent and very strategic in
his approach. These are all good qualities for a potential president.

Now the
not-so-good news:

Prabowo
is currently banned from entering the USA as a result of his involvement
in human rights abuses whilst serving as commander in the Indonesian armed
forces under the former dictator President Suharto. Probowo’s record shows he
was deeply involved in atrocities including the ‘Ninja gangs’ that ran
‘operation eradicate’ in East Timor in the 1990’s, the massacre of villagers in
Papua in 1996, and during the overthrow of Suharto in 1998, the abduction and
torture of activists.

Underneath
this charming exterior, is a man who is very nationalistic, and who can be
extremely ruthless, has a very short temper and is impulsive at times in his
decision-making.

He also
continues to work closely with the current military leadership, and holds views
about democracy that maybe an indicator of things to come. In a recent
political speech, Prabowo stated that Indonesia had been ‘over influenced
by western-style democracy’, and that a more ‘decisive’ style would be more
suited to this huge nation.

A number
of influential people within Indonesia actually agree with his approach and many
of the nation’s village or ‘kampung’ people also long for what they call a
return to the good old days of Suharto’s rigid discipline in running the
country. “People would never steal my chickens when Pak (Mr) Suharto was in
charge”, argued my former driver from his village near Jakarta.

Stolen
chickens may be an issue, but a far greater challenge for village people and the
broader community will be Indonesia’s economy. Currently it is growing at
around 5-6%. It’s not enough to provide the jobs and opportunity for the number
of young people coming through the dysfunctional education system. Furthermore,
Indonesia’s infrastructure is in desperate need of upgrading. Roads are jammed,
ports are inefficient and communications such as internet is below
international standards for a nation needing to increase productivity and
output.

Both
candidates have raised the issue of protecting Indonesia’s agriculture sector
from overseas interests. More than 45 million people work in this sector, but
it generally operates at a subsistence level with much of the produce not even
making it to market due to poor practices and the infrastructure problems to
which I have already referred. It is an industry in which Australia could form
significant partnerships given our knowledge and best practices, but
nationalism and narrow thinking may prevent this sector realising its
potential; and being able to feed its people.

Meanwhile,
it is questionable as to how Prabowo’s style, if elected, would suit Australia
politically, and in particular the issue of boat turn-backs. Mr Abbott has been
successful in turning back asylum seekers to Indonesia
because he knew Australia
could get away with such a policy. And he was right. But what will soon become
clear is that under Probowo (and to a lesser extent, ‘Jokowi’) such strategies
may be challenged far more vigorously, particularly if it suits a nationalistic
agenda by a new president.

Australia will not
be the only regional neighbour to worry about a Probowo presidency. China, perhaps surprisingly, will also share
some concerns given Probowo’s appalling treatment of ethnic Chinese in Indonesia, and also his strong stance on the
protection of Indonesian territorial waters including the disputed seas around
the NatunaIslands.

So
whether we see a ‘Jokowi’ presidency, or Prabowo ‘steals’ the leadership away
at the last minute, the Indonesia relationship with Australia is about to
change. If Probowo does win, and he may just do so, our best hope will be for a
‘guided democracy’ for Indonesia similar to the style of Singapore’s former
Prime Minister Lee Kwan Yew; but without the efficiency or honesty.

But more
likely, Prabowo would prefer his style to mirror that of another powerful and
strong leader: Vladimir Putin; the only difference being that the Indonesian
president would be living on Australia’s doorstep.

Ross B.
Taylor AM, is the president of the WA-based Indonesia Institute (Inc)