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Tuesday, 18 March 2014

stock market crash 1929 - Is not the same as today

stock market crash 1929 - Is not the same as today

I am about to go on a rant here, so grab a cup of coffee and get ready for me to spray some spit at the screen..... lol - Here goes!...

The stock market crash 1929 Is not the same as today, for the past 12 months I have been growing tired of other blog comments, and blog posts with BEARS posting up charts and predictions of how in 2014 will crash soon, when they overlay photos of what the market did back in 1929 and this year 2013 - 2014.

Here is what they do.... They get an old comparison chart and link it to the last 24 months or so and then compare that to today. Its something anyone could do.An example is below where a popular blog (that I will not name) was comparing 1929 to a 2012-2013 chart. :-

It was suggesting a violent crash, and fire & brimstone in the streets. Since then the market has been skidding upwards, not downwards as their chart was suggesting. LOL. Strike 3 - Your out!!!

There are many more I could post here, but this one was an all time classic so I just had to show you.

You are probably having one of those aha moments right now, as in "hey, I have seen these on blogs all around the traps!". YES! correct, they are just trying to find answers on where the market is going today, tomorrow and next week. The thing is....NO ONE REALLY KNOWS! I do not have a crystal ball, you do not have a crystal ball. We just make do with what we have in front of us. Going back in history will not give us much of a glimpse of what will be happening today, or next Tuesday on the market will it??? Most certainly not!

I have never seen such rubbish in my life! I mean, in all my years trading I have used fractals (repeating patterns in charts) and also fibs, and all sorts of things, but these analogies, about how 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 is following 1929 is ridiculous. Not one of them has ever worked out. Not one! If you have found one, please e-mail it to me. I suspect I will not be getting many emails though. LOL.

For the past 12 months everyone has been posting these charts, but they have not been working have they? So do not fall into the trap of buying these or using such charts to predict the future movements in price, or price action. It's hogwash.....

While I do agree that market tend to rhyme or keep in rhythm a certain times, HISTORY DOES NOT REPEAT Exactly what happened day for day and week for week nearly 100 years ago. If you think that it does or it will, then you have rocks in your head and will be bitterly disappointed if you keep trying to use these charts to make money on the market.

I have gone through 50 of the best ones I could find, and NONE of these worked or EVEN came close to working. I felt dirty after I did this, because I knew I was wasting my time, but I GUESS I just wanted to prove a simple point to my readers.

What you have to remember is that the market today is a lot different to back in 1929, we are fully electronic now, we have algos to deal with and huge heavy manipulations that were always there, but not as rife as today. So with these variables, you will bound to see lots of different action, and candles on the chart.

Now I am not saying the market WILL NOT CRASH, because every 7 years now the market has been doing JUST THAT! What I am saying is that people going back 100 years and trying to spot patterns, that are repeating now, are just wasting their time. In fact most of these people according to my statistics would be consistent in losing money in the short term and or long term also.