In just 8 days (July 9th) the people of Iran are planning massive demonstrations events and strikes. On this date, 4 years ago, the regime brutally attacked peaceful student demonstrators while in their dorms. The result was the loss of life and liberty of hundreds of students, many of which are still unaccounted for.

Once again, the regime has been threatening a major crackdown on the protesters. A major confrontation is just days away.

Iran is a country ready for a regime change. If you follow this thread you will witness, I believe, the transformation of a country. This daily thread provides a central place where those interested in the events in Iran can find the best news and commentary.

Please continue to post your news stories and comments to this thread.

Student leaders, defiant after a wave of street demonstrations, are warning Iran's political leadership that they will face full-blown confrontation unless political prisoners are released and a protest rally is allowed to go ahead. "We openly declare that these words are the final words of dialogue between the student movement and the ruling establishment," a group of students said in a letter addressed to the reformist president, Mohammad Khatami.

Signed by 106 prominent students, the letter condemns the arrest of dozens of student activists and a ban on street rallies to mark the anniversary on July 9 of a raid on a Tehran University dormitory four years ago.

Following protests which erupted across the country earlier this month, the letter sets the stage for further possible unrest as the July 9 anniversary approaches.

The students are also running out of patience with President Khatami, once hailed as their hero but now increasingly considered too timid to stand up to the conservative clerics who wield real power in Iran. Mr Khatami's failure to speak out clearly about the suppression of the student movement was "painful and disappointing", the students said.

The letter told him: "We call on you... to react before it is too late and adopt a reasonable solution, or otherwise have the courage to resign so that you do not justify oppressive policies and allow students to settle their accounts with the establishment."

Protest While city streets have returned to normal, the protests that erupted on June 10 and persisted for more than a week shocked the authorities in the level of anger that they expressed against the country's clerical rulers.

"The protests were a serious alarm bell for the system," Abdullah Momeni, a prominent student leader, told the Guardian. "Two years ago, it was an open secret that the system was dysfunctional. Now people are saying it openly."

The disorganised and chaotic nature of the protests showed the need for a coherent opposition leadership which could harness public anger, said Mr Momeni.

"The authorities have to learn to allow people to voice criticism or there will be more protests. The huge number of arrests they have carried out shows how nervous they are," he said.

A day after speaking to the Guardian, Mr Momeni was detained when he walked out of the university campus in Tehran's city centre.

In an apparent attempt to pre-empt rallies on the July 9 anniversary, some 1,000 people - including dozens of student activists and the son of an MP - have been arrested in the past week.

The detentions are carried out by plain-clothes security agents operating outside regular legal authority, reformist MPs say. Most of those detained are being held without access to lawyers or their families, and their whereabouts are unknown.

"I am worried my husband is being tortured right now," said Aidin Hassanlou, 26. Her husband, Mehdi Aminzadeh, is another student leader who was detained a week ago and has not been heard from since.

"I am really anxious about this situation. I don't know where he's being held. After seven days they won't let me see him or talk to him," said Ms Hassanlou, who was warned by the authorities not to speak to the press.

Initially reported as a demonstration by university students, this month's protest was more of a family event, with teenagers leading the way while Iranians of every age came out to watch and blare their car horns in solidarity.

Criticism As quickly as they exploded on June 10, the protests faded after 10 days. The demonstrators had no leadership and no clear demands. A newspaper story that helped spark the protests, which suggested that privatisation of universities might be in the offing, turned out to be inaccurate.

But the tidal wave of frustration continues to grow among a new generation who are less willing to tolerate a theocratic system that they believe is defying the popular will and the modern world.

Conservative officials and police say the protests do not represent any serious political protest, but are merely acts of "hooliganism" orchestrated by foreign governments.

They have no shortage of evidence, if the statements of the White House are anything to go by. The Bush administration has accused Tehran of helping al-Qaida, of developing a clandestine nuclear weapons programme and of undermining US attempts to rebuild Iraq - all claims which Tehran has denied.

The clerical leadership in Iran does not deny the existence of protest. Rather, they point to the sharp political disagreements between the conservatives and reformers as proof of the country's democratic credentials.

Unlike in previous street protests, the club-wielding, bearded vigilantes who came out to crush the demonstrators met fierce resistance. Instead of running away, teenagers fought back, throwing stones and torching the militia's motorbikes.

While previous demonstrations had called for free speech, this time there were hostile chants against clerical rule and even the supreme leader himself, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Criticising the supreme leader, who wields ultimate authority, is normally a taboo that risks imprisonment.

For the first time, demonstrators also openly castigated President Khatami, who was elected six years ago amid high hopes for dramatic change. He and his allies in parliament have tried to introduce democratic and social reforms, but have been repeatedly blocked by unelected clerics who wield blanket veto power.

To distract a restive young population, state television has announced an extensive schedule of Iranian soap operas and European football matches. Free outdoor concerts, with free food, are also being organised in the capital to coincide with the July 9 anniversary.

TOKYO -- Japan appeared today to bow to U.S. pressure to hold off on finalising a deal to develop a giant oil field in Iran - Tokyo's third-biggest oil supplier - due to concerns over Tehran's nuclear development programme.

The controversy over the $2 billion deal to develop Azadegan, one of the world's biggest untapped oil fields, has put resource-poor Japan in a bind as it seeks to balance its thirst for oil with a staunch security alliance with the United States. Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuo Fukuda said that the deal to develop Azadegan was important for Japan's energy needs, but noted there were concerns over Iran's nuclear programme.

"Crude oil is very important for Japan, but on the other hand, the nuclear development issue has turned into a big international concern," Fukuda told a news conference.

"I don't think there will be a contract ignoring (such concerns)," he said. "We will make a final decision looking at future developments," he said, adding that Japan was urging Iran to try to clear up suspicions over its nuclear programme.

Japanese officials have declined to confirm reports that the United States was pressuring the Japanese government-backed consortium to back out of the deal in order to boost pressure on Tehran to open its nuclear sites to inspections.

Trade minister Takeo Hiranuma told a separate news conference that negotiations were continuing but that he could not say for certain when a deal would be signed.

"We are making wholehearted efforts on negotiations," he said.

Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh said last month a $2 billion deal for Azadegan could be signed with a Japanese consortium by early July.

But Japan's Kyodo news agency quoted U.S. State Department spokesman Richard Boucher as saying in Washington yesterday: "It is highly inappropriate to proceed with talks on new oil fields or gas at this time."

TALKS STILL ON

An Iranian official confirmed yesterday that the talks were still on.

"Negotiations on the development of the Azadegan oil field are still continuing between this company and the Japanese companies," the official IRNA news agency quoted Oil Development and Engineering Company head Abolhassan Khamoushi as saying.

"Agreements have been achieved on some issues like the production ceiling, but agreements on the project cost have yet to be achieved," said Khamoushi, whose company is affiliated with the Oil Ministry.

The United States, which accuses Tehran of seeking nuclear weapons, has placed sanctions against Iran that prohibit U.S. firms from investing in the country, branded by Washington as part of an "axis of evil".

Japan, however, has never been comfortable with the inclusion of Iran in the triad along with communist North Korea.

The consortium includes the government-backed Japan Petroleum Exploration Co (JAPEX), Japan's Indonesia Petroleum Ltd (INPEX) and Japanese trading house Tomen Corp, which today declined to comment on the state of play.

The portion of the Azadegan oil field that could be developed by Japan is expected to yield 300,000 bpd.

Japan has been keen on the deal, agreement on which was reached during a visit to Tokyo by Iranian President Mohammad Khatami in late 2000, to help make up for losing a 40-year-old oil concession in the Saudi Arabian section of the Neutral Zone.

24 students arrested by militant forces in the north western city of Tabriz. The arrestes were not a legal action, according to sources at university of Tabriz. www.iran-emrooz.de ( A Farsi website )

We still have checkpoints at night and they check and verify all passengers of the cars, especially youngsters and single men. They set up many check points in the most important junctions of the city of Tehran.

As the time goes by and we are approaching the anniversary of the 9th of July, some sources say that some high-rank officers of the Armed forces have been arrested because of their role in the recent protests in Tehran. These commanders and officers did not obey the order to stand against the protest. They were believed to be kept in military jail of Tehran which is under supervision of the Revolutionary Guards loyal to the supreme leader. I got this info from VOA and RFI radios in an interview with Mr.Keshtegar who is a political analyst in France.

Universities are open for final exams and some of them suspended their exams. High schools are closed now and the student of High schools are ready to join the protests. I know many who desire to join the protests but they are afraid too.

Understandably, it would be really tough. However, if people turn out in large numbers, it would be hard to control them. Any way, good luck on Iranians. We hope to hear a great news from Iran on July 9.

Sir I think all forces, people and fractions that work to free Iran are welcome and moreover, the only thing Iran need now is unity to get rid of the clerics. In a free atmosphere after in which regime changed, a free election can tell who is who. I also dont get along with the leftists but they are also working to make a free land. In other hand, I just transfered a news from their source. Hope you consider that in this time, Iranians must be united in word and action!

The demonstrations that shook Iran for the better part of two weeks have died down, but the aftershocks continue to unnerve the mullahs in the run-up to the general strike called for the 9th of July. Even today, the Shiite storm troopers at the service of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and ex-president Mohammed Hashemi Rafsanjani prowl the campuses and go door to door from one youthful leader to the next, arresting and imprisoning all those believed capable of mobilizing a national uprising against the failed regime.

From this distance it is impossible to predict what will happen in the next ten days, which is another way of saying we do not know the political consequences of the demonstrations. There are those, like Columbia University's Gary Sick, who describe the demonstrators as "a rag-tag bunch" who were merely upset at the prospect of having to pay college tuition. Sick and others of his ilk were not impressed by the repeated calls for an end to the regime, and the remarkable tenacity and courage shown by the demonstrators in the face of the lethal violence unleashed upon them.

The mullahs were more impressed. The government itself now admits to having arrested 4,000 demonstrators, of whom some 800 were students. The student movement says the numbers were even higher, and the actual number could well be upwards of 6-7,000. Many were killed. Iranian websites carry the piteous cries of parents whose college-age children have disappeared without a trace, as well as reports from students who describe being thrown into cells of incredible crowding, and then subjected to psychological and physical humiliations.

Regimes do not react this way to a rag-tag bunch. This is the reaction of a regime that fears its days may be numbered. Look at its own numbers: less than a quarter of those arrested were students. The rest came from other walks of life. In other words, the demonstrations were not restricted to a single sector of Iranian society, but were, for the first time, a truly national protest, both sociologically and geographically. No major city, not even the holy city of Qom, was free of demonstrators. And, perhaps most menacing of all, there were reports of angry confrontations in the oil fields, and rumors of sabotage. I cannot confirm them, but the stories themselves have circulated widely, and are symptomatic of the national mood.

Meanwhile, some of the things I have been reporting and predicting for more than a year have been confirmed by the regime in recent days. The most interesting of these is the admission that al Qaeda leaders have been in Iran for some time. Of course, the mullahs do not say it that way. They suddenly announce that they have arrested hundreds of al Qaeda terrorists, refuse to identify any of them, but promise that if any of them are identified they will be sent back to their country of origin.

This is rather like the old joke of the woman accused of stealing a neighbor's pot. "I never took it," she protests. "And anyway it was a very old pot," she continues, "and I gave it back in better condition than I found it," she concludes. Thus the Iranians, who first denied there were any al Qaeda personnel in Iran, then claimed they were in fact in jail, and then promised to return them (with the usual provisos that would protect any Egyptians  like Osama's right-hand man, Zawahiri  from extradition).

And in Iraq, the mullahs' offensive continues unabated, to the apparent indifference of the leaders of the Bush administration. The newspapers are full of stories about Iran-based religious fanatics calling for an uprising against the Coalition. At least ten Iranian-run radio and television stations are broadcasting anti-American and anti-Semitic venom throughout Iraq, while we have yet to organize a single radio or TV there, to our great shame. And the Iranians brazenly sabotage our reconstruction efforts, as in the case of the monster water treatment plant in southern Iraq, which was dismantled and carted off across the border, or the several factories that were broken up and either smuggled into Iran or sold to them.

And am I the only person to smell a connection between Tony Blair's call for the civilized world to support the democracy demonstrators one day, and the murder of seven English soldiers the next?

This administration clearly has no stomach for any sort of campaign against the mullahs, at least for the moment. But it can no more avoid the showdown with the mullahs than it can cause Osama bin Laden and Saddam Hussein to surrender; this is a fight for survival, and they will not permit us the luxury of setting the timetable at our convenience.

That means there must be regime change in Tehran. In their hearts, or perhaps at a somewhat lower level, our leaders know that. Even the admittedly limited information in the hands of our intelligence community shows the pattern of Iranian skullduggery, and it is only a matter of time before the mullahs pull off some murderous assault large enough to compel us to act. They still fondly remember their glory days in Lebanon, when they killed hundreds of Americans in a single suicidal stroke, an event incautiously recalled by Bashar Assad in the first days of Operation Iraqi Freedom. That is what undoubtedly awaits our fighting men and women if we do not move first to support the freedom fighters in Iran.

But even if Iraq were peaceful and flourishing and headed towards democracy in the near future, indeed even if there had been no September 11 and thus no war against the terror masters, our refusal to call for regime change in Tehran would still be a disgrace. Blair and Bush have warm words for the demonstrators, but no Western government has called for an end to the Iranian tyranny. Hell, they haven't even called for the release of the thousands of political prisoners or for the release of the many journalists rounded up during the demonstrations of the past two weeks.

July 9 is coming soon. Nothing would encourage the Iranian people more than a clear declaration that the United States is with them, and against their oppressors.

Faster, please.

 Michael Ledeen, an NRO contributing editor, is most recently the author of The War Against the Terror Masters. Ledeen, Resident Scholar in the Freedom Chair at the American Enterprise Institute, can be reached through Benador Associates.

"As the time goes by and we are approaching the anniversary of the 9th of July, some sources say that some high-rank officers of the Armed forces have been arrested because of their role in the recent protests in Tehran. These commanders and officers did not obey the order to stand against the protest."

Good reporting there.

It's just as you said. The army is pro-shah. That helps confirm it. And that also means that it would take little help from the US to topple the regime. FReegards....

Sometimes you have to quote a leftist source. No worries. FReepers don't fully realise how left-wing dominant the media is outside the US, with the exception of Islam dominant media. I can imagine the difficulty finding an Iranian Rush Limbaugh [although Limbaugh could find one-- just kidding].

So many Americans are passionately hoping you succeed in winning your freedom and are awed by the dedication and courage of the protestors. Thank you also for the risk you've been taking to keep us posted on the political situation there. Our hearts break at every student arrested, missing or injured throughout your efforts at gaining democracy.

Many of us have been trying to help in our own small ways as individuals (raise the awareness of the situation in Iran around our own communities, writing to media to cover the protests more fully, etc.). Please let us know if there is anything else you find that we can do to help?

TEHRAN, June 30 (AFP) - Iranian authorities have decided to shut down Tehran University's main campus from July 7-14 in a bid to prevent any gatherings there to commemorate major student riots in 1999, press reports said Monday. The reports, quoting a statement from Amir Abad campus authorities, comes after officials have already refused to allow any attempt to mark the anniversary of the July 9, 1999 unrest that saw at least one student die and hundreds arrested.

The statement said the decision to shut down the downtown complex was taken due to "excessive fatigue among campus staff". It said students staying on campus over the summer would be required to get a new access pass.

From June 10-20, the Amir Abad campus once again became the epicenter of protests showing widespread frustration with Iran's clerical leadership, as fierce clashes erupted between anti-regime protestors and Islamist vigilantes in the area around the campus.

The demonstrations also spread to other cities, and were marked by the unprecedented shouting of slogans targetting supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

A tough crackdown followed, resulting in the arrest of some 4,000 people, 2,000 of whom are still be held.

The events of July 1999 also saw violent clashes between armed extremist pro-regime groups and students. Some of the student leaders of those protests are still in jail.

Frustrations have been mounting in Iran over the deepening political deadlock between reformists in parliament and the relatively moderate President Mohammad Khatami on the one side and unelected but more powerful hardliners in the judiciary and legislative vetting bodies on the other.

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