Tuesday, July 30, 2013

A week later and my news clippings are still filled with
news about Liberal leader Justin Trudeau’s sensible talk about marijuana
legalization – and they say it’s hard for an opposition leader to get attention
in the summer, when the House isn’t sitting…

Ironically, these distortion-filled, fear-mongery
fundraising pitches designed to scare money out of the base are the crack
cocaine of Canadian politics: hopelessly addictive, and you need more each time
to get the same results. Yet they’re legal?

But seriously, you’ll note that the soft on crime pro-organized
crime Conservative pitch said “While
the Harper government is focused on the economy…” And how’s that going?

Erasing
the federal deficit is the top priority for the Conservative government, but
monthly tracking shows Ottawa’s bottom line is moving in the wrong direction.

The
federal government posted a $2.7-billion deficit over the first two months of
the fiscal year, which begins April 1. That compares to a $1.8-billion deficit
during the same two months – April and May – the year before.

So maybe stop with the lame e-mails and focus a little
harder or something.

Meanwhile, over at the Globe, they tackle the issue
(no, not the economy, silly) with a subscribers-only piece claiming “Trudeau’s
stand on pot legalization gives Harper a generational wedge.” Is it a
coincidence they put most of their weakly argued analysis-pieces behind a
firewall?

Anyway, they're not the first pundits to argue only
young people (who dont' vote much anyways) would find appeal in legalization,. Unlike the older middle class, who do vote and don’t like it.

But is that the case? Rather than relying on gut-based
evidence, perhaps there is research we can use? Why wait, yes there is.

You know who does vote, and in big numbers? Baby
boomers. And how do they feel about legalization? According to a U.S. study from the Pew Center, today 50 per cent of boomers (aged 49 to 67) support
legalization, a number that has risen sharply over the last 13 years.

The study also found that 54 per cent of GenXers and
65 per cent of millennials are pro-legalization.

Now, this isn’t to say that this issue is a vote-getter
for anyone, as that would need another study – but given the wide-spread support across age ranges, it’s not
likely to be a vote-taker either. And while its true that under a first past the post system you
don’t need a majority vote to form a majority government – it could well be
there’s a decent enough core of hardened opposition to be beneficial to Harper -- I suspect that’s already his base.

But what is clear is that making this a generational
thing, and saying legalization only appeals to youth to lazy to vote anyways,
is a lazy hypothesis unsupported by the facts. While a majority of our
politicians may be behind the times, a majority of Canadians are already there.

UPDATE: Here's an Angus Reid study from 2012 with Canadian numbers. According to this report, 57 pert cent of Canadians favour legalization. Support ranges from a high of 64 per cent in Atlantic Canada to a low of 51 per cent in Alberta. Support is higher with men (64 per cent) than women (50 per cent). When broken down by age, support for legalization is actually highest from Age 35-54, at 61 per cent, followed by18-34 at 58 per cent and 55+ at 51 per cent.