Flight MH370: The allure of the conspiracy theory

We are prone to see intent rather than accident in the unexplained. Cue conspiracy theories when a plane goes missing, says a psychology researcher

When a lack of conclusive information leaves a factual vacuum after a headline-grabbing event, conspiracy theorists rush to fill it. In the case of the missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370, their take ranges from relatively plausible (perhaps the plane was hijacked, or destroyed by a bomb) to nonsensical (it was abducted by aliens or made invisible using advanced technology).

While we wait for answers, I, along with colleagues Chris French and Christopher Thresher-Andrews at Goldsmiths, University of London, wanted to see how many people were jumping to the conclusion that foul play was involved.

We asked over 400 people to rank six possible scenarios for the jet's disappearance – three accidental, three conspiratorial – from most to least plausible. The most popular scenario involved no conspiracy: half of those surveyed rated an accidental crash as most likely. However, just under one-fifth believed a hijacking to be the most plausible scenario, the second most popular choice.

A non-conspiratorial crash due to pilot error came third, preferred by 14 per cent. A more outlandish idea – that the disappearance was secretly orchestrated by the Chinese, Malaysian or US government – was rated most likely by a little under 7 per cent. Finally, just over 5 per cent ranked a spontaneous explosion as the most credible explanation, and a similar number rated a terrorist bombing as most likely.

Conspiratorial mindset

Most revealingly, our preliminary analysis shows a relationship between endorsement of the conspiratorial explanations and acceptance of conspiracy theories in general. We also asked the group whether they believe, for example, that the government permits or perpetrates acts of terrorism on its own soil; that world events are manipulated by a small, secret cabal; and that evidence of alien contact is being concealed from the public.

Those who agreed that conspiracies like these are commonplace were more likely to see the disappearance of MH370 as a conspiracy too. Those who think conspiracy theories are bogus tended to assume the disappearance was an accident.

Of course this is not to say that the conspiracists are wrong. The point is that nobody has enough information to say with any certainty. We asked people to speculate, and they based their guesses on their world view. This fits with research showing that people who tend to believe conspiracy theories are more likely to buy into a theory that the researchers just made up, and will even entertain logically inconsistent theories.

This is not the first time that a missing aeroplane has given rise to conspiracy theories. In 1937, Amelia Earhart vanished while attempting to fly around the world. No trace of her, navigator Fred Noonan or their aircraft was ever found.

As with flight MH370, there are various potential explanations. It appears most likely that Earhart's plane ran out of fuel and crashed at sea. However, some have suggested that they were shot down on a secret mission to spy on the Japanese in the Pacific, or even that the two faked their disappearance in order to assume new identities. And just as with our study, a survey of 900 Londoners found that people who entertained conspiracy theories in general were more likely to accept such reasons for Earhart's disappearance.

The question remains: why do conspiracy theories around events like this have such intuitive appeal for so many?

Momentous events

Psychologists suggest that part of the reason so many think this way is because we are all biased towards seeing ambiguous events as the product of someone's intentions rather than a mere accident. Moreover, when something has momentous consequences we are again more likely to see it as the result of something equally momentous, like a conspiracy. This is perhaps why the most successful conspiracy theories concern historic, often shocking events – the shooting of JFK, Princess Diana's death, and 9/11.

A 2010 study by Anna Ebel-Lam and colleagues at Queen's University, Ontario, Canada, demonstrated this reasoning in the context of a plane crash. The researchers made up a story in which there was an explosion in the plane's cargo hold. The pilot struggled to maintain control and make an emergency landing, but the plane crashed, killing everyone on board. People who read this story tended to assume that the explosion was the result of a terrorist plot or endemic malpractice.

However, another group heard a different ending to the story. Most details – the explosion, the pilot's struggle to control the damaged plane – remained the same; the only difference was that the pilot successfully landed the aircraft. This group was more likely to blame the explosion on a more mundane cause, such as an electrical malfunction.

It's no surprise that conspiracy theories about MH370 have spread so quickly. Conspiracy theorising appears to be an unavoidable feature of how our minds sometimes work.

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Did Amelia Earhart fake her own disappearance? Some people like to think so (Image: Courtesy Everett Collection/REX)