7:45 AM Update 5 September 2008
Hanna is now east of Florida and continues to be moving Northeast. It has a broad windfield and wind will be felt much earlier than the center arrives in the Carolinas later Today.

The Florida east coast will receive some rain and less than tropical storm force wind until later today as it passes by.

Ike continues to move west and slightly south, and the long range forecast still is suspect either way, it will likely have to be monitored. If you aren't prepared already it wouldn't hurt to get some supplies. But still Ike may go further south or north than the line indicates, do not focus on the exact track line... the entire cone is a possibility.

Ike will enter a less favorable area for development, so it is likely to weaken some today. It is forecast to regain strength later, however.

Original Update
Tropical Storm Hanna, a broad 65MPH Tropical storm, is moving northwest and will likely near and cross the coastal Carolinas tomorrow night. It has a small window to increase in strength, so hurricane WAtches are up
from Edisto Beach in South Carolina, Northward to Currituck Beach Light (Including Pamlico Sound) in North Carolina,

Tropical Storm Warnings are now up from the Savannah river, northward to the border of Virginia and North Carolina.

Tropical Storm watches are now up for points northward into Great Egg Inlet in New Jersey. This watch area also includes the entire Chesapeake Bay. See Local Statements (Top of main page) for more information.

Tropical storm force winds extend pretty far from the center, 315 miles or so, but only on the North and Eastern Sides. This means its likely Florida will see little to nothing from Hanna, but north of Florida conditions will likely worsen, and winds will come well in advance in the landfall area sometime tomorrow.

Hurricane Ike continues to maintain itself as a major Category 4 storm. Ike will likely get into Recon Aircraft range tomorrow.

The forecast track currently tracks it through the Bahamas (those there will need to pay close attention) and eventually near the Florida coastline, although there is a great deal of uncertainty in the track at the 4 + day range, so things may change. Watch model trends and NHC updates as time progresses on this dangerous storm.

Ike will likely weaken some over time (perhaps quite a bit if it gets into areas where Hanna upwelled) as it approaches an area of shear, but if it maintains its relatively small size it will have a chance to restrengthen after the bout with shear.

We'll be watching it very closely also.

Josephine still is most likely to turn out to sea, but it is by no means a sure thing.

Sorry to ask a rookie question but I can't help myself. I have been "lurking" and reading your insightful posts since Ivan came through the panhandle. Thanks for all the info. I know the NHC issues the advisories on theh 5's and 11's and when land is involved an intermediate is on the 8's and 2's. Where is the 8p for Ike? There have already been a few intermdiates and when I got home from work tonight I was hoping for an update and I am still looking at the 5p that I saw forever ago. Thanks again for the info and I will retreat to the shadows....Rick

As for Ike he is moving more west than previously and on the above referenced water vapor loop he might even be a smidgen south of his forecasted point.

If you look at the high to the north of him and even to his nw you can see where he could start moving wsw as the NHC has forecasted. Not that we don't trust them, we do but when we see it happening and why it makes us nod and look further down the line at his track.

The ships model takes him all the way to the Florida coastline, models change but still it's not an easy graphic to look at especially if you live in Miami or Ft. Lauderdale which I do. But... still it can change.

I think that is what we have to think on now... what if scenarios, what do to prepare and wait and see where the cone narrows.

Ike looks amazing. His eye is wide open and very white inside.

We'll see. Cantore on TWC tonight was talking on possibilities of "what ifs" Ike gets into the Gulf. Perhaps a long shot but we'll see where the models take it tomorrow. Just remember they are models and the NHC track is the bottom line, they are doing a great job this season in a year with so many landfalls.

Quote:
Sorry to ask a rookie question but I can't help myself. I have been "lurking" and reading your insightful posts since Ivan came through the panhandle. Thanks for all the info. I know the NHC issues the advisories on theh 5's and 11's and when land is involved an intermediate is on the 8's and 2's. Where is the 8p for Ike? There have already been a few intermdiates and when I got home from work tonight I was hoping for an update and I am still looking at the 5p that I saw forever ago. Thanks again for the info and I will retreat to the shadows....Rick

Ike's not close enough to any major land areas to be on the "every 3-hour update" schedule yet.

Rick...that was not a rookie question, it was an excellent question! I was wondering the same thing myself. Someone may be able to help you better than I on this subject, but here are my thoughts: they aren't going to send in recon until tomorrow...when it's closer to land and closer to fly into...so they may be waiting for that info. Right now they are primarily going by the models and the atmosphere surrounding Ike.
Hope that helps!

-------------------- You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.

Yes, recon needs to get in there however I would really like to see the Gulfstream Jet fly around a bit and get some good measurements. That would help models a lot.

On the other hand, Ike's eye is so wide open right now you can see deep down inside.

That Gulfstream Jet that measures the atmosphere that Ike is moving in can tell a lot about where any weaknesses are and any subtle changes to the track.

The more information we have the better, so far we have been going on Dvorak and sat imagery. Rarely have I seen so much white in a solid ball in a Dvorak image as I did today showing a very intense storm.

Quote:
Sorry to ask a rookie question but I can't help myself. I have been "lurking" and reading your insightful posts since Ivan came through the panhandle. Thanks for all the info. I know the NHC issues the advisories on theh 5's and 11's and when land is involved an intermediate is on the 8's and 2's. Where is the 8p for Ike? There have already been a few intermdiates and when I got home from work tonight I was hoping for an update and I am still looking at the 5p that I saw forever ago. Thanks again for the info and I will retreat to the shadows....Rick

They only issue intermediate advisories in two cases:
1) Tropical storm or hurricane advisories (watches and/or warnings) have been issued
2) Significant short-term changes in intensity (generally upward) that prompt the issuance of a new advisory package

We had one such instance of the latter with Ike yesterday evening, but alas with no advisories out on Ike right now there are otherwise no intermediate advisories being issued on the storm. That should change tomorrow or so.

The 11PM for Ike has the last forecast point just offshore of Ft. Lauderdale/Dania Beach, moving generally northwest. I wanted to mention this because a category 3/4 hurricane approaching the Florida coast like that is more than a little eye opening.

However, it's a compromise forecast between two model plots, one group going much further south and other going north of there, it will be impossible to know more until later in the weekend. It should keep everyone watching, however. The Entire cone! I know it's a broken record!

Will SoFL have a pretty good idea of proposed landfall by Sun nite? I live in Martin County and have made basic preparations, but my husband and I are not in very good health, so I don't want to do hard prepping til absolutely necessary. We also have 2 kitties to worry about. My husband is diabetic, I have cancer, and I do NOT want to go to a shelter! I feel guilty about worrying about us, tho, when I read about the horrible conditions for those poor people in Haiti. However, to be practical, I do have to worry and get ready.

Right now everyone should just keep a eye on IKE. We wont know forsure where or if he will make landfall till probably sunday night or monday morning. I do have a gut feeling on IKE, but I want to wait also until its 2-3 days out and right now its around 5. IKE will move WSW but how far before a more west turn or WNW turn is in question. I would follow the GFDL Model with a blend of the GFS. Lets watch but not make any rational plans until Sunday, if at all.

It is only practical that you seek answers now, rather than at the moment of decision. There are multiple things that every homeowner must consider, and when you add to that, the added complication of having pets and being in poor health, you need look into your options now rather than wait till the last moment.

First of all, there is the issue of evacuations. I cannot comment here, as each resident and neighborhood may be mandated to evacuate depending on a case by case scenario. For instance, are you at risk of ocean storm surge ( flooding ). Second, are you on a first floor, or second or higher. Of course, the exact point of a hurricane landfall is critical to any consideration of evacuation. I would think that any landfalling hurricane in Miami-Dade County or the Keys, would likley not cause you to evacuate. In any case, best to listen to officials. These considerations start typically when we are under a Hurricane Watch - typically 36-48 hours ahead of landfall. This might mean that if watches are raised for Ike, this might occur sometime on Sunday. More imminent Warning would then follow shortly if it appear likely that those conditions will impact where you live.

Couple things to keep in mind. Most shelters do not allow pets. Cats however are fairly easy as they can be left with food and a couple fresh liter boxes, and water, and usually can be left for at least days at a time if necessary. Other issue is your health. You need to immediatly take stock of what necessary medicines you or your husband might need. If directly impacted by Hurricane Ike, than it would be possible that electric, communication, and other disruptions could make it difficult to near impossible for many stores or commerce to operate for days or even a couple weeks.

Couple other tips include going to the ATM and getting extra cash out, so that in the event of a several day disruption of communication or electric disruptions, at least you will have some money. Also another smart tip is to fill any/all vehicles with gas. You never know if it may take a few days or longer for streets to clear and electricity to allow gas sales. Charge all cell phones, and bring a cell phone charger with you should you go to a friends home or shelter. Also, before leaving....., make sure that you have a list of family or friends who know of your exact plans regarding waiting out the storm. One very very important thing to do in the event of a direct impact. Go through your home and seek all critical papers, photos, banking info, insurance policies, etc. Take these items and carefully put them into a large garbage bag. Then, insert this garbage bag into another bag. Take a piece of paper and write on it: important papers, and tape it to the outside of this bag. Finally, simply take this bag and place or hide it in what would be the safest and dryest room in your home. The purpose for this, is to protect valuable papers and critical information that would be hard to recover, in the event of excessive water damage to your home. If you choose, you could take such important items and leave them with a trusted family memeber or friend that you might feel offers a safer building structure.

Best thing you can do, so to eleviate undue stress and anxiety, would be to simply make a plan that will include some or all of the above issues, along with any necessary items you might need should you be able to weather the event at your own home ( such as batteries, radio, flashlights, caned foods, manual can opener, at least one 24 box of bottled water, perhaps a fresh can of propane or suppleis for any barbecue you might have, non pearishable foods such as peanut butter, nuts, etc.

The more prepared you are, the less anxiety one will deal with beyond the simple decision of having to leave, or to simply accept mother natures temper tantrums and deal with it the best you can at home.

Another rookie question, can the Doppler radars be ramped up in situations like Hanna to learn more about her make up, she is far off our coast ( further than current radar readings of < 120 km) . I think I remember a time about a month ago when Melborne was under repair and that Tampa seemed to take over a good chunk of CF. Maybe looking at Doppler radar is only entertaining for us lurkers, I read the Doppler tutorial, but still didn’t understand if the readings help the NHC or not. Is it all about the recon, if so why? I do remember hearing about the crappie Cuban radar, so it must mean something. And the (‘drops downs’ do what the radar can’t. You seem pretty excited about airplanes going out to see big bad Ike, tell me why that is so important. Can we learn if the radar ramps up? Did we learn? Is that why NHC is doing better in path, but wants nothing to do with strength. i.e. Ike T.S. puff H3..h4.

Make sure you have prescriptions, batteries fully charged, gas in the tank and money in your pocket.

Having a plan is better than running around in panic mode on Sunday.

The cone is large still on the 5th day..and 4th... yes it's a broken record but one worth playing again and again.

Saw Bill Read before the season started and he emphasized this over and over... have a plan, follow the plan. Do not panic at the last minute based on what neighbors tell you or rumors. Get a plan, stick to the plan. For advice on getting a plan there are sites online, hurricane maps in Publix and talk to old timers who live in your neighborhood if you are new to the area who can tell you how the area takes a strong storm.

This is a shutter event in South Florida if it continues on it's current path... not a buy twinkies and beer sort of tropical storm and a free day off from work. This is serious.

And, yes it is making a turn on the 5th day but where will that turn take it? Up the east coast, across the state to the west coast or though the straits?

By Saturday Morning we should be beyond the wide cone and those of us in the cone zone will need to act fast but with a plan...

Check your shelter for pets policy and condos on top floors have higher winds and they are only as good as the weakest link. If you have a neighbor who was out of town and on the 11th floor didn't lock his balcony sliding glass door before he left town last week it will provide a point of entry for winds that could snake through the condo and create havoc for neighbors in a major cane. If so.. find your hallways or exits and obviously if you are in an evac zone, evacuate.. if not, follow the advice of those in the know and the NHC.

All good questions. To be as to the point however, radar is one additional tool that for tropical cyclones, may assist Meteorologists determine overall rotation, or in fact if there is a clear and obvious center. Often times, in a weak system, especially at night time, it is diffucult to determine a "fix" or center point of a low pressure area. Well, with satellite............and given a well developed eye within a hurricane, there is no doubt as to the location and motion of that system. Recon flights offer different diverse information. One being a center fix - pretty much a where is it, how strong is it, barometric pressure, wind speed, and other readings specific to the current state of the storm. Perhaps more importantly however, are observations and samplings done of surface conditions ( sea surface temp, wave heights, etc ) to wind and pressure readings of the different levels of the atmosphere. This data, when fed into computers, further help scientists by providing the necessary information to assist in analyzing steering conditions and influences on future intensity.. The planes are basically flying laboratories that gather information for hundreds of miles around, within, and in advance of an approaching storm.

Dopplar can't be effective past a certain range. Due to the curvature of the earth are other limiting factors radar can't see past a certain point. Imagine looking out towards the horizon. You know there is more behind there but can't see it. I think the range for most of the NWS products is ~140 miles. You can learn more here. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/srh/jetstream/doppler/radarfaq.htm

As for recon. It can give us many things that satillites can't. Presice temperatures, pressures, dewpoints, wind readings and they also conduct research missons to better understand these storms. Also getting information about the environment gives the models more data for their runs. It is also interesting to see how close the estimates made are to they actual conditions. It gives a check to the accuracy to current determinations that are made remotely.

The advice given earlier on both accounts is very good and would be very wise to heed

Recon just went through Hanna from SE to NE and looks like the dropsonde shows surface pressure of 985mb at 27.2N 77.2W at 05:37Z.. thats a 2mb drop from the 11pm.. but hard to tell how much of a drop since last recon fix... noticed that the air temp at surface was 81F with dewpoint 79F

got family in the Brunswick county area... AKA home sweet home for me... I would expect for them to see some major beach erosion up along the SC/NC coast. Hanna should be moving pretty quickly when she makes landfall i think late 2marrow nite.

Some very good hints. My family and I were considering whether to ride Ike out in my kid's office building and I posed a bunch of questions to him based on what I've learned chasing storms as a newspaper photographer over the years.

To keep from wasting bandwidth, I'll refer you to what is normally my bicycling blog:

Quote:
Another rookie question, can the Doppler radars be ramped up in situations like Hanna to learn more about her make up, she is far off our coast ( further than current radar readings of < 120 km) . I think I remember a time about a month ago when Melborne was under repair and that Tampa seemed to take over a good chunk of CF. Maybe looking at Doppler radar is only entertaining for us lurkers, I read the Doppler tutorial, but still didn’t understand if the readings help the NHC or not. Is it all about the recon, if so why? I do remember hearing about the crappie Cuban radar, so it must mean something. And the (‘drops downs’ do what the radar can’t. You seem pretty excited about airplanes going out to see big bad Ike, tell me why that is so important. Can we learn if the radar ramps up? Did we learn? Is that why NHC is doing better in path, but wants nothing to do with strength. i.e. Ike T.S. puff H3..h4.

As others have mentioned, Doppler radars are limited in range by the curvature of the Earth. They are also limited in effectiveness by time considerations (e.g. for emitted pulses to be returned to the radar before the next scan takes places), the base elevation angle (0.5 degrees, which doesn't sound like a lot but leads to overshooting a lot of stuff over 100 miles away from the radar), and their power. Tampa's radar (and also Melbourne's) can cover most of Central Florida because of the narrowness of the peninsula and thus relative proximity of the radars.

Radar analyses help the NHC from the standpoint of gauging storm structure -- eye, eyewall, etc. -- and diagnosing its winds using Doppler velocity data. While they are not surface winds, those data can be converted to approximate surface winds and used to better diagnose the storm's current intensity. Aircraft recon also have radars from time to time, though those are mostly used in research modes rather than real-time forecasting operations.

Recon flights are so important because they have tools that allow us to measure surface winds (the SFMR tool), gain an understanding of the storm's vertical structure (dropsondes), and gauge its intensity in a way that we cannot do with any other tool such as radar or satellite.

Ultimately, the NHC intensity forecasts have not improved much in skill over the years because we can't accurately represent what is going on within the storm at all times. We just don't have the full knowledge that we need, nor do we have the computational power to take what knowledge we have and make an accurate forecast. We know conditions that are favorable and those that are unfavorable, but we can't always judge how those will evolve in 12 hr, yet alone 120 hr. Intensity change is such a fine-scale, highly non-linear process that it makes its predictability quite the chore. Track forecasts, however, are largely dependent upon larger-scale features, features that are well understood, analyzed, and predicted and have become increasingly so over the years. Thus, we see large improvements in track without large improvements in intensity even considering that track forecasts are dependent upon intensity!

Interesting! The strong convective blobs to the west of the center of Hanna pull her more westward than expected. Die last two center fixes show this. If this continues, than even Georgia should be threatened by a direct landfall. It`ll be threatened anyway by the large windfield of Hanna.
And the pressure begins to drop slightly. It´s now 982 hpa. Because recon also found a flight level wind of 72 kt, we could see a slightly intensifying Hanna, which is quite close to hurricane strength!

Raymond, I am sure glad that you mentioned the west movement. I am in Jacksonville, Fl and have been watching it since 4 this morning thinking the same exact thing. I thought it was just the old eyes playing tricks on me. To me, it's looking like it might be right around the Georgia/Florida line.

No, sorry, that´s a wrong impression. You may be fooled a bit by the strong convection, which is a bit to the west of the center. The main focus for landfall is still South Carolina, but if we would see the strong convection continue to the west of the center with center reformations under it or close by, then it could be possibly drawn more westward than expected to Georgia. I think, given the meteorological conditions, there is no landfall possible in northern florida ore close by, but the huge tropical stormfield and may be the stronger convection on the westside can have it effects on Florida.

It's been raining and windy here in Broward County since about 2 a.m. Weather reports last evening said there would be a "chance" of rain today. Hanna obviously moved a bit west; now the rain probability is up to 80 percent.

According to the weather channel we are now under a tropical storm warning. I haven't seen any place else saying Florida is under any warnings. Thanks for clearing up the center position for me. I was thinking the center was somewhere under the big blob.

AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS.

AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED
SOUTHWARD FROM SAVANNAH RIVER TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA. THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST TO CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA...AND NORTHWARD IN THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY TO SMITH POINT. A TROPICAL WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA NORTHWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST TO CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA...INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS...AND NORTHWARD INTO CHESAPEAKE BAY TO SMITH POINT.

AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN
EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FROM NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA TO SANDY HOOK
JERSEY...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF SMITH POINT...THE
TIDAL POTOMAC...WASHINGTON D.C...AND THE DELAWARE BAY. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

THE HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH
SOUTH CAROLINA TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING
PAMLICO SOUND.

Here, in New Smyrna Beach, we are definitely feeling Hanna this morning with some heavy rain bands and squalls (thank God Hanna is not a hurricane!). We better not get a wet Ike on the heels of this one or flooding will be a major problem.

so i left the New Orleans EOC and came home because of Hanna and Ike. Here on the Treasure Coast, Hanna is looking like a "nasty day event". At 0730, we're getting some rain and some good 20mph, maybe a 30mph wind. No activations or protective measures are being taken.

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Here on the Treasure Coast, Hanna is looking like a "nasty day event". At 0730, we're getting some rain and some good 20mph, maybe a 30mph wind. No activations or protective measures are being taken.
Ike....however.....may be another story.....

One town below you in Fort Pierce I'm getting at least 30mph rainy winds - and some squalls up to 40.

At daybreak this morning I began hearing staple guns, drills and hammers securing hurricane panels.

This is so eerie....just like when I lived on the beach when Frances and Jeanne went directly over my home.

The circulation seen on radar just in the mid levels or is Hanna really trying to take off? Not trying to over state anything but I would be really surprised if this is not a hurricane by 11:00 am or at least by 5:00 this afternoon if this trend continues. One thing that worries me (since I do live about 150 miles from the coast line) is that if she strengthens and at the rate she is moving, there could be significant winds well inland and far up the coast line, do not think we can relax with Hanna yet.

Quote:
Mike, can you please clarify what you mean by tracking towards the center of convection??? Does that mean that is tracking further west than predicted?

This is soley based on recon fixes, it just appears the center has moved more toward the deep convection.

The last two Vortex Messages from recon were more west than north, I don't think it's moving more west, just reforming more west. What it does to the eventual track is uncertain. But it would suggest places like Myrtle Beach or Charleston are more under the gun for the center, on top of this pressure dropped about 5 millibars with the last recon fix.

Question: I know MBs are not the only condition for a Cat classification, but below 980, which she currently is, indicates Cat 2...are we looking at this possibility.? crow now being served to yours truly, who dissed H. big time yesterday.

Pressure is relative to the surrounding environment. Hence why when Wilma got all the way to 882 MBs, her wind speed wasn't nearing 200 mph because the surrounding environment of pressure was much lower than normal.

Now I am not sure how Hannah's environment is relative to surrounding pressures but her lack of a tight core and very large windfield make her lower pressure not as conducive to increasing windspeed.

Convection begins to sit more on top of the center of Hanna and the shear relaxes more and more and could be quite low until landfall acording to the analysation of CIMSS. So the most positive factor in the moment: she won´t have much time anymore till landfall. But it looks like as we`ll see a hurricane making landfall.

And some news about Ike:
1. major shift to the west in the new modell runs! There is quite some spread. The westernmost is the GFS, which brings it just along parts of the northern coast of Cuba to the central GOM! Different places of southern Florids are still under the gun (HWRF, SHIPS, UKMET). NOGAPS even recurves it just before Florida.
2. The positive news: The shear bites into the core region of Ike and the worst should be still to come! So there should be a continuing significant weakening trend at least the next day!

Eventhough there are currently no advisories or watches up for IKE yet, anyone located in the cone should seriously start making their plans this weekend (or earlier) for this potentialy strong storm. People will be off from work for the weekend and the stores and gas stations will be extremely busy!

Difficult to estimate from radar pics, because there is no clear center. Wait for 20-30 min. for a new center fix by the new recon flying in.
The problem about Ike is: the whole of Florida is in the cone! Western coast, eastern coast, panhandle: really nothing could be excluded right now!

Quote:
Florida is in the cone for Hanna??? Or Ike???? Ike is far enough away so that the track will be changed many times. No need to get excited over him just yet. My thinking is, one storm at a time.

The irony in this statement. This season has been so busy we are having to deal with "one storm at a time". Not a good thing.

The way things are looking right now, Josephine may be the first storm since the 'D' name, Dolly, to not make a landfall on the United States. Dolly, Ernesto, Fay, Gustav, and now Hanna and Ike have been or are forecasted to be landfalling tropical storms or hurricanes on United States SOIl. Certainly I think we've exceeded the expected amount of landfalling tropical cyclones for this year.

Sorry for site outage, we're nearing ordering replacement hardware for all systems soon to upgrade flhurricane to a better distributed system for the main site. (Images are already distributed) Thanks to the Donators for the assistance.

Andy,
Thanks for your response. I do have all my important papers in heavy plastic storage boxes which I will stow in our car along with my pc ('cause I don't want my hard drive blowing all over FL!), and plenty of water and food. Plus, my sister and daughter have access to all my online accounts and copies of my insurance info, etc. I freeze my water bottles and use them to keep my coolers cold so I can store my husband's diabetic meds/insulin. Then they can also be used for drinking. I also freeze gallon jugs to put in the fridge/freezer to keep cold/frozen items cold longer, but I have stocked up on nonperishables as well. I have a percolator for making coffee on the grill, which I bought after Frances and used for Jeanne and Wilma. Cell phones are charged and gas tank topped. Just won't pack suitcases and kitties til last minute. I really prefer not to leave them and I know shelters won't take them. The problem with living in FL is that the state is so narrow and the ways out so limited. I would probably head to my daughter's in GA on Monday if Ike is predicted anywhere near us, but dread the bumper-to-bumper anticipated traffic. My mobile home, as I said previously, was seriously damaged during Frances, exacerbated by Jeanne and later by Wilma, with minimal FEMA assistance, which went to Miami-Dade for some unknown reason. At this point, I am just crossing my fingers. I can't STAND being offline due to power outages!!!!

But, can't pray it won't hit us bc that means it would hit someone else. If it skips SoFL and goes into the Gulf, I don't know what THOSE poor people would do.

Looks Like Ike has a mind of his own and having started his wsw movement early has now flattened out headed west (trending long enough to not be a wobble) and is crossing to the northside of the projected path.

The latest obs from recon seem to imply Hanna has hurricane force winds. We'll see if the 2PM advisory goes with it, but the system seems to be getting it's act together rather quickly, and even with the limited time it has left it could surprise people.

I hate to say this is the NHC's bad dream. but in a way it is, a system that strenghens unexpectedly close to the coast and moving rapidly is *not* a pleasant thought.

Ike is getting hammered by shear, but holding together rather well. It'll need the shear to relax soon though, otherwise it'll be crippled and take very long time to recover (which would be fantastic news for Florida).

I am amazed that there are no posts from SW FL - is anyone as concerned as I am re: potential track of Ike? Maps show it to be 80 miles sw of Ft. Myers Weds. a.m. If the tracks are even close to correct - that is a substantial wind/rain event for us.

AT 2 PM AST...1800 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE
ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

JB agrees with you that this is already a Hurricane. If this just brushes the NC coast look out in New England for storm surges in Buzzards Bay and Narragansett Bay as they will be East of the center just like Bob and Gloria.

You say your mobile home, Frances, Jeanne and Wilma...and you seem to know what it's like going through all 3 of them, correct?

I lived on Jensen Beach in 2004 and Frances and Jeanne's eyes went right over my home while Wilma clipped me as a Cat 1 from the S/W!

Where do you live in Florida, Cate?

I have received two or three pms from people on the board, but if you'd care to email me directly: cate58wood@aol.com.

I live in Hobe Sound (between Stuart and Jupiter) and, yes, we were in the eye for all 3. Not fun! My plans are up in the air right now, until we get a firmer fix on Ike, but my basic preparations are done. I have lots of friends in Jensen Beach, especially members of the VFW on Savannah Road. You guys "up there" had a lot to deal with during Fay. I take it you had already moved before Fay? I'm sure you watched the reports, tho. Yuck. I think it's my fault. My hubby and I were visiting Hamburg NY when the famous October snowstorm hit! And we lived there during 'the Blizzards...part of the reason we moved to FL and were greeted by Erin..

Hanna is looking more like a tropical cyclone again, as it seems to be redevloping an inner core and some banding features. Max winds have come up a little bit today, but the pressure has been slowly rising this afternoon, so it is not immediately clear if it will become a minimal hurricane. Recon data suggests that there is still something of a disconnect between the surface center and the flight-level center, so there is further organization that needs to occur before there would be any substantial intensification. Time is running out for that to happen.

Recon data thus far seems to indicate that Ike's winds are in the 95-100 kt range, right at the cat 2/3 breakpoint. It looks like it is in the midst of an eyewall replacement cycle, so some further weakening is possible. Ike is currently in a sheared environment and will also be passing over relatively cool waters in the next 36-48 hours, so it is not clear how strong it will be as it approaches the Bahamas. Ike's ultimate path is still rather uncertain, but it does seem increasingly likely that it will get far enough west to impact parts of the U.S. and/or Cuba.

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We've adjusted a few things for more record traffic, hopefully the site will hold out ok this afternoon. We're scrambling for a better solution until all the new hardware arrives.

Mike, we live on SocSec, but this is my "go-to" site during hurricane season and just sent a $20 donation via Paypal (bernworth) and wish I could afford more. You all do a terrific and much appreciated job.

Some additions for Ike:
I agree, the highest surface winds should be around 100 kt. In the second vortex message they speak again of an eyewall only open NW. So there seems to be some improvement, because, on the first message they didn´t speak of an eyewall existing ( that means there is less then 50 percent of an eyewall around the center). And it´s no eyewall replacement cycle, because there is simply nothing to replace the eyewall with no bands in the NW half of the huricane. The shear simply bites into the eye from the nothwest and makes it more or less open there.
So Ike fights really hard to hold his structure together.
Track: Now all models have shifted westward and forecast landfalls in different spots of the gulf side of Florida.

Looking at the models it seems that the NHC will keep the 5:00 PM close to the 11:00AM. BAM series as usual its doing a dance. Most of the others see SW Florida and up the west coast of FL or close to it.

Good question about the size Lee. I was wondering the same thing. Though, I noticed in the 5pm disco that even given the disruption from the shear, et al. that his envelope as grown very slightly. Hurr. force from 35 mi. from center to 45 mi. and Trop.Storm. from I think 105 mi. to 120 mi.

Does anyone know if there's some sort of scientific equation that can forecast/estimate windfields? I'd be interested in knowing.

Convection of Ike is much more symetrical again. The NW-half of the storm has regained some strength. I would say, we will see the eye clearing out again. These are signs for a slight reintensification!

Today's 5am and 11am public advisories were 35 hurricane and 105 tropical. BUT you are right, yesterday at 5pm they were 45.

If you go to NHC's site a click on Advisory Archive (on the left) you can go back to any advisory/discussion/map since the storm became "named" a follow it's evolution along.

Although, when he was "just" a tropical storm, at one point the Tropical Storm force winds extended out 175 mi. from center.

Kooky question: When we start getting 3 hourly updates...is it still only the 5 & 11 am/pm hours that they update the forecasted track and the 8 & 2 am/pm hours are just "intermediates" with no forecasted track updates?

Here is a loop of the basin I don't usually use but it paints a fairly good picture as far as what the overall flow, surrounding Ike, looks (feels) like without any underlying backup. Feel free to comment.

When a person looks at that satellite link that was posted or any of the ones that are similar to that it looks as if the flow is from the Bahamas up to the NW into Florida.

People are very skeptical of the SW movement Ike is supposed to have and are worried. I don't see it on the loop yet. Not a real SW movement or WSW but more a south of west movement.

It looks as if a person took a knob and turned it round half way to the right and everything turns a bit towards the west or wnw. Look at Hanna who seems to be moving more west. The flow from Ike goes down a bit and then turns up around 10 pm on a clock. That would be northwest.

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Just a note, there is a mandatory evacuation for visitors/non-residents for the Florida Keys starting tomorrow.

I was born and raised in Tampa (50 Years) and spend a lot of time fishing in the keys. I would think with a cat 4 possibly about to roll over your head, some of the "regulars" might want to start thinking about heading north also.

You have to understand the mindset of a true conch (regular as you stated) They feel that they are just as indestructible as the mangroves that formed the Keys. I know I lived there for twenty years. Conch Key.

IKE CONTINUES TO MOVE BRISKLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 14 KT.
IKE IS BEING STEERED IN THAT DIRECTION DUE TO A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA SOUTHWESTWARD BETWEEN IKE AND HANNA.
THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THIS HAPPENS...IKE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN
MORE WESTWARD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON THIS SOLUTION...AND HAS ONCE AGAIN SHIFTED SOUTH AND WESTWARD.
IN FACT...MOST OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE NOW TAKES HANNA EITHER OVER
OR ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA. THE NEW TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED
SOUTH AND WESTWARD OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IT IS ALSO A
LITTLE FASTER. IT SHOULD BE NOTED...THAT THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS AND SEVERAL OF THE INDIVIDUAL MODELS ARE SOUTHWEST
OF THE 4 AND 5 DAY NHC POSITIONS AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES
SOME ADDITIONAL WESTWARD SHIFT COULD BE REQUIRED.

You know the NHC is working overtime with all of these storms. The above is from the 11:00 PM Discussion and if you read it, I think you will agree it is impossible for Hanna to be over the north coast of Cuba anytime soon?

The discussion led me to believe that Cuba is indeed in danger from Ike, but I'm no met by any means. It sounded and Skeetobite maps appeared as if Ike would clip at least the northern part of Cuba and the models seem to show it heading into the GOM. Any chance of curling around again to FL somewhere?

"Mis-speech" or just quick typing, my point is that these guys must be under a lot of stress trying to track and predict the outcome of all these storms at one time. Especially when they know that lives may depend on their forecast.

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The discussion led me to believe that Cuba is indeed in danger from Ike, but I'm no met by any means. It sounded and Skeetobite maps appeared as if Ike would clip at least the northern part of Cuba and the models seem to show it heading into the GOM. Any chance of curling around again to FL somewhere?

The rule of thumb is if you are in the cone the potential for a strike is there.

Looks like Florida is in for a one-two punch with Ike. First concern has to be the Keys and extreme south Florida. Beyond that, Ike looks like it will move into the Gulf and slow down (as depicted by NHC and model consensus). Therefore, Ike remains a real concern for anyone in FL all of next week, especially along the Gulf coast of FL and further inland (tornadoes, high winds, etc.) Pay close attention to those advisories from NHC.
Let's hope and pray that Ike gets torn up a lot as it moves along the north Cuban coastal areas and interacts with land.

Thank God Hanna didn't strengthen further before moving up the east coast.

--------------------"Let tomorrow worry about itself. Each day has enough trouble of its own."

Ike has slightly weakened with a central pressure around 962 hPa and max . surface winds around 95 kt. here is still an not visible eye present, which is open partly.
But the most improtant thing is, that the modells all shift south and west. So Ike will most likely travel a significant time over Cuba, which is of course horrible news for the cuban people, and then move quite a bit into the GOM. Now all of the northern Gulf coast is in the cone of Ike. Intensity forecast is much more complicated now. The meteorological conditions should become conducive for reintensification later today, but than significant weakening could occur due to long travel over Cuba. Let´s see, what will arrive in the Gulf.

And Hanna just makes landfall at Myrtle Beach at the border between the Carolinas. I guess, they declare her to be a strong tropical storm at landfall. Recent center fixes have shown no strengthening.

looks to me that Hanna has finally made US landfall as a strong Tropical Storm... near the SC/NC border at 0715z. maybe just ne of North Myrtle Beach... up HWY 17 there... little river, SC... "south of the border"... she should start to weaken now.. Recon departed the area about 2 hrs ago... almost home... i don't seen anything in velocity data to show she made hurricane... i have see two reports of wind gust to 72 - 73 mph there on land on the west side of coc... dry air on the east/south side... prevented hanna from getting stronger... plus moving over 20mph

It's pretty bad when you wake up and think "great news... it's only forecast to be a Cat 3 in 5 days"! Yet that was my thought as I looked at the 5am forecast advisory on Ike. Then, I read the discussion...
I don't mean to sound alarmist, but this could be very bad news so quickly on the heels of Gustav. Since Gustav did not strengthen after it went over Cuba, people may be less inclined to believe intensification forecasts for Ike should it move over Cuba... and of course, there's no way to know for sure how Ike will be impacted by Cuba even after the fact because every storm is different. The only thing that is becoming clearer is that Ike is destined for the Gulf.

Edit: It also looks like Ike has decided to blow up size-wise ovenight.

From looking at the latest spaghetti models this morning and the current NHC cone, I would say that not only should Florida stay cautious, but if someone lives in the Gulf Coast region from the Panhandle to LA, they should be paying VERY close attention. If you'll notice, the outer edges of the 8am 5-day bubble are touching LA. There's still several days for this track to swing around either direction, but frankly, considering it's a dangerous storm with the potential to severely impact an area, no one should let their guard down.

And if you're in the Keys, considering there's only one road out, I would say yes, leave sooner than later because this is one you don't want to try to ride out.

--------------------Lesli in SWFL.
Friends help you move. Real friends help you move bodies.

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Just a note, there is a mandatory evacuation for visitors/non-residents for the Florida Keys starting tomorrow.

I was born and raised in Tampa (50 Years) and spend a lot of time fishing in the keys. I would think with a cat 4 possibly about to roll over your head, some of the "regulars" might want to start thinking about heading north also.

Yes Kromdog I know I would be heading out if a cat 4were coming my way and I lived in the keys !! no questions asked .

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