posted at 4:38 pm on July 30, 2007 by Allahpundit

I mentioned this last week but Politico went and got some tasty quotes for the occasion. I’d say between this and conservatives blanching at his association with Spencer Abraham, the Fred backlash is now in full swing. Sounds like an obituary!

Fred Thompson plans to announce Tuesday that his committee to test the waters for a Republican presidential campaign raised slightly more than $3 million in June, substantially less than some backers had hoped, according to Republican sources…

Many Republicans had seen the “Law & Order” actor and former U.S. senator from Tennessee as a potential savior in a tough election cycle.

He attracted support from such top-shelf party figures as Mary Matalin, Liz Cheney, George P. Bush and other GOP stalwarts who saw him as a potential Hillary Clinton slayer.

But many Republicans have turned queasy as Thompson has ousted part of his original brain trust and repeatedly delayed his official announcement, which is now planned for shortly after Labor Day, in the first two weeks of September.

Some are already saying a prospective Thompson run is a flop. “I just don’t see it anymore,” said a key Republican who had been extremely enthusiastic about a Thompson candidacy.

“That number is really underwhelming. There were indications it could be double that. They’ve been saying that people were waiting for Fred, and the money was going to pour in. He looks like he’s already losing momentum.”

What’s been his biggest problem so far? Abraham, the striptease over when he’s going to declare, or the LA Times abortion lobby story? I think it’s the last one, not because the facts of did him any real harm but because, as the conservative messiah, he’s the guy we all wanted to trust and it turned out his campaign was BS-ing us right out of the box about what he had and hadn’t done. Plus, it didn’t exactly burnish his credentials as a Reaganesque communicator. If you’re going to spin, you’ve got to do it more artfully than that.

Update:Rob Port notes that exploratory committees are bound by law not to raise more money than they need to operate committee; only after the official announcement can they legally start racking up big dollars. That’s fine, but in that case why were Fred’s “First Day Founders” initially asked to bring in $4.6 million? Or even $5 million?

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I’m very, very saddened that the presidential race has become a fundraising race. Could we possibly hear their opinions, not their cash registers? Why is 3 million dollars in a month, an amount I will never see in my lifetime, somehow insufficient to make your voice heard? What is that…$100,000 a day? Do you really need to serve all the people that visit champagne cocktails? Jesus tap dancing Christ…what happened to the ISSUES?

Wait, when did Fred show potential? He’s an actor that plays a Republican on TV, and he had an undistinguished Senate career. Y’all were fooled by the Southern accent. The only potential he showed was GOP voters’ potential for Obamamania.

In spite of everything else, the major complaint I hear about Thompson is his delaying declaring. I think he seriously underestimated the impatience of most people. America has for the most part become an “I want it now.” society, unwilling to wait for anything.

Personally, I don’t care about his not declaring. I think all the candidates jumped the gun in this election cycle. If it keeps up, we’ll have people declaring right after the inauguration speech is over.

For me his biggest problem right now is Abraham. There are other things that bother me, and if he doesn’t do some kind of explaining soon he may as well pack it in. His silence recently is possibly the most disturbing thing.

The problems began with Fred’s poor performances at live events, both scripted and not. He gave some poor speeches, he gave some interviews in which he said little or nothing, or had to be rescued by a sympathetic interviewer from stepping in it bigtime, and he manifested some truly annoying verbal tics – the constant “uhs,” “ums,” and throat-clearing. He doesn’t look too sharp either – he’s got decades of perfectly lit and miked movie and TV appearances, as a younger man, to live up to, and he can’t.

He and the nascent campaign rightly concluded that he wasn’t ready for broad exposure. If he HAD been ready to go, he could have taken the wave at the crest, and campaigned like a sumbitch at least to the nomination. Instead, they decided that they had to have everything nailed down 100%, set up a campaign organization to protect, support, develop, and frame both the candidate and the message. The result was a relative news vacuum, and complete loss of message control. His hesitation about declaring fit with too many other narratives hovering around the edges: In sum, he gave the impression of someone who was hiding for good reason, if not multiple good reasons.

He’s now going to have to surprise us all over again to have a chance.

If Fred? had executive experience, he would know about managing expectations and executing a plan according to a schedule. Those are important qualities in a President. Wowwing party regulars with blog posts is not.

What’s been his biggest problem so far? Abraham, the striptease over when he’s going to declare, or the LA Times abortion lobby story? I think it’s the last one, not because the facts of did him any real harm but because, as the conservative messiah, he’s the guy we all wanted to trust and it turned out his campaign was BS-ing us right out of the box about what he had and hadn’t done. Plus, it didn’t exactly burnish his credentials as a Reaganesque communicator. If you’re going to spin, you’ve got to do it more artfully than that.

I think you’re wrong on this. I think the teasing with whether he’ll run or not is pissing off the activists, who you usually rely on for your ground campaign.

That said, I think the hiring of Abraham was a major mistake, and when the shockwave hits when people see what Abraham is, unless he goes all out in saying things aren’t gonna go Spence’s way and have it be believable, it’ll do serious damage to his campaign. Because that hiring can easily be read as a signal to the amnesty set.

Sorry, let me rephrase: Stimulus that is sequenced to take advantage of the previous stimuli, creating a upward trending baseline until reaching a threshold. Pretty much all, ahem, climaxes are a process of temporal summation – here threshold or climax is winning the election.

I think this is Fred’s biggest weakness so far, actually. He hasn’t shown much ability to follow up on successes or expand his campaign, just seems to milking what works until its dry. But maybe he’s doing it somewhere I’m just not seeing.

For me his biggest problem right now is Abraham. There are other things that bother me, and if he doesn’t do some kind of explaining soon he may as well pack it in. His silence recently is possibly the most disturbing thing.

Kowboy on July 30, 2007 at 4:54 PM

Ditto. I don’t know how he can pull that one out. Is he ignorant of who Spencer is? Was he fooled? Does he not care? There’s no good answer.

But I don’t like any of the other candidates any better. If we could get some kind of Frankencandidate – Fred’s communication skills (his writing and radio spots were great), Rudy’s tough on terrorism, McCain’s fiscal good points, Tancredo’s immigration stance… you get the idea.

I also feel many republican’s frustrations. I for one am tired of punching bag GW who has lost his fire and fight.

But neither am I willing to push for republicans to burn themselves ot running around for two years facing whatever freakshow or circus the media wants to fling at them.

Leadership sometimes is waiting for the right time to act.

We have taken a lot of hits over the past few years. But Im not so willing to lose sight of the prize. Its upsetting that we lost congress but if we win the White House in 2008 that still gives us a lot of power in what happens in this country.

We have the chance to make a conservative majority in the supreme court that will last for decades. We need a strong President because the fight in the WOT isnt over. We need a strong President to curd the excess that the demcratic congress is going to start throwing around. The fairnes doctrine and immigrantion amnesty ? What chance do we have to stop that if the dems win the White House ?

So I care LESS about who is in the race at what time. Its the same with the YouTube debate we have raging now. We seem to be more worried with apperances rather than winning.

So I will keep my eyes on the prize and not worry about who is looking good in a beauty pagent contest.

Some of you are missing the point. It’s not that $3 million is necessarily bad or that this proves that he is done.

The point is the perception of a faltering or problematic campaign. He let expectations skyrocket but didn’t define said expectations. He let others do that for him. Those expectations obviously were too much to bear, and the fact we’re even debating this topic proves that it was a mistake to let that happen.

He needed to temper things as he got settled into his candidacy. Get the bugs out, THEN show the voters/media what you can do as a Presidential candidate.

Instead, he is stuck with the perception of a candidate who may really be just like Wesley Clark, a flash in the pan.

Their up! Their down! Their in! Their out!…..
I’m more then happy to wait for Groundhogs Day. While I want Fred! in if he doesn’t cut the mustard then so be it.
I’m not going to burn my Checkers poster over it.

I don’t think freddie boy is done yet, but clearly he’s more talk than substance and others are seeing it to now.

I have a question…..since fred? wasn’t really running a campaign, what happens to the cash that has been donated (if he decides not to run)? We know what he did with the leftovers from his senate coffers. He hired his son and the lions share went to him. If fred? doesn’t run, does he put the cash into another PAC and then hire Jeri to administer it or was there some sort of guarantee that the donations will go back to their rightful owners?

What’s been his biggest problem so far? Abraham, the striptease over when he’s going to declare, or the LA Times abortion lobby story? I think it’s the last one, not because the facts of did him any real harm but because, as the conservative messiah, he’s the guy we all wanted to trust and it turned out his campaign was BS-ing us right out of the box about what he had and hadn’t done.

I think it’s the striptease over declaring. It’s a tired act, and as he hesitates on his commitment to run, people will hesitate on their commitment of funds.

If he’d already declared, the whole LA Times scoop would have been nothing.

Which doesn’t bother me. Everyone else jumping into the pool before it had any water in it is what has bothered me. Are we going to be so burned out on politics by the time the election rolls around that most people are just going to want to get it over with and won’t really give a damn who wins? Could that have been the Dem’s strategy all along?

That’s a great idea! I’m so doing that when I’m old enough to be president. I’m gonna run a Ron Paul style kook campaign, get people to give me their money, then end my run and book to some island with my piles of money, Brilliant!

Is he ignorant of who Spencer is? Was he fooled? Does he not care? There’s no good answer.
Laura on July 30, 2007 at 5:13 PM

None of the above perhaps? I don’t think anyone else would take the job. freds? hard up and has to take what he can get. Maybe he thinks the guy can save it long enough to get real heavy duty conservatives to buy into his BS?

I agree, but think it is more like the 2nd quarter. When he announces and begins his campaign, either he will dazzle people to the point they will forget the “teasing” or he’ll run a flat campaign and fade away.

While I am a little tired of waiting, I figure it’s a long campaign season and if he is in by Labor Day, no biggie. I consider his handling of the LA Times story as a bogey on the first hole. He still has time to show that is not how he handles such issues typically and change the perception that has developed.

I am much more disturbed about this Spencer Abraham and his views regarding jihadists and radical muslims. I haven’t heard Fred! try to explain that one. Since national security and Iraq is a key issue, I don’t see Abraham squaring with Fred!’s views. This may be, for me, the make or break issue with him.

Look, I like Fred, still, I do have some problems with the Spence Abraham thing. The rest of the so-called issues I have seen are nothing compared to Rudy, Mitt, Hillary or Obama’s skeletons. They all have something in the background to dig up and you can bet your ass they will. It has been pretty dissapointing for me to watch so called conservatives attack and eat their own so vicously lately.

When it comes right down to it I will support whomever gets the nomination. And I expect you all will too. Even if it is (gasp) Fred.

Labor Day is the ‘traditional’ kick off date. I sure hope that in 2011 we won’t have already been in a Presidental race for a year. Pretty good strategy for the socialists. Americans have a pretty short attention span and all that yak-yak-yak for 2+ years will be great cover for them. No one will be listening.

Lazy bum raised 3M, only. MSM was right. Wife’s a “bitch”. Staff left because of her. She’s a trophy, or not. But, she’s pretty, some say. Hillary camp mad as hell due to focus on looks. Every Arab is a bad one. Michigan, won by Kerry, doesn’t have 17 electors,…wait, it does. Gingrich is not in FT’s camp…wait, he is because FT can only read from what others hand him…he needs Gingrich (who can’t win because he’s intelligent but undisciplined)…

Stillborn? This guy was aborted at concept(ion) by the left and the right.

We’re physically fighting hard in Iraq. Fred, on the other hand, is taking his sweet time to declare.

Well, isn’t the MSM were the ones who being saying we’re not doing it hard enough in Iraq and that we’re in there too long taking “our time” by not training the Iraqi troops fast enough?? And that they’re taking too long fighting in Iraq?

BTW, didn’t Fred say he’s getting a new website up soon? Either we can become our own worst enemy or we don’t. Why don’t we just join the MSM and Lefties to help further ensure that Fred can’t run. Nobody is dying from Fred not announcing soon enough or is that the distinction you’re trying to make Ameripundit? Sure, many are anxious about Fred’s announcement but I’m not that kid in the back seat of the car asking my Dad every 15 minutes, “Are we there yet?” “Are we there yet?”

Fred is it. We can have our questions but look at a candidate map. He’s it folks. He’s going to be Eisenhower the 2nd. Remember we’re electing the next CINC for the Iran war. Do you want a wussy like Hitlery or an Eisenhower?

There is also a technical term for a supposedly high-ranking GOP operative who would so quickly conclude that $3 million raised in 26 days for an unannounced candidate is evidence of “a flop.” That technical term is “unvarnished garbage.” No truly experienced national political operative would make such a claim, unless he was talking to a reporter looking for a quote that serves somebody’s agenda.

Fred is it. We can have our questions but look at a candidate map. He’s it folks. He’s going to be Eisenhower the 2nd. Remember we’re electing the next CINC for the Iran war. Do you want a wussy like Hitlery or an Eisenhower?

Mojave Mark on July 30, 2007 at 6:25 PM

I’m not sure about that Mojave Mark. Unlike before there are two parts to this game now. One is the foreign war. The other is the invasion by foreigners onto US soil. Fred’s record in regards to the second aspect is more then worrisome to me. I had started looking into that a little while back and was not happy about his past record. Unfortunately, the Spencer Abraham hire confirmed some of my newly acquired suspicions. That has got to change if I’m ever going to support him. I doubt I ever will.

The guy needs to quit screwing around and just declare. I don’t care if he’s waiting until September to get around some fundraising loophole or whatever. Gotta win the PR war. He makes jokes saying he’s not being coy and all that, but the time for jokes is over. Declare, get into the debates and show everyone your serious, then the money will follow.

Nice synopsis and pretty much in agreement with it. I’m not comfortable either with the hooptehah about Abraham.
He was born in the US and has served honorably in his various positions. The irony is that the Republicans made the most of this and have helped put Fred on the ropes with a standing eight count.

I have one question for FDT and his staff: do they know how to use Google? It seems to me, if they did, a few things would have been obvious; namely, Spence Abraham’s association with blocking foreign student tracking, as part of his open borders, pro-Abrab/Muslim stance in the Senate. Then there’s FDT’s support for Campaign Finance Reform during his stint in the Senate, including a press release he put out praising it after it was passed, in spite of the brou-ha-ha genenerated against it as an affront to the first amendment, by conservatives on the net.

There’s more — including the fact that a filing cabinet worth of info (such as billing records from a lobbyist) can be digitally stored to be retrieved effortlessly years later. You have to wonder if these people are as net-savvy as they painted themselves in the beginning; or if anyone of them, including the candidate, paid a fig’s worth of attention to “information technology” before Fred decided to run.

I have one question for FDT and his staff: do they know how to use Google? It seems to me, if they did, a few things would have been obvious; namely, Spence Abraham’s association with blocking foreign student tracking, as part of his open borders, pro-Abrab/Muslim stance in the Senate. Then there’s FDT’s support for Campaign Finance Reform during his stint in the Senate, including a press release he put out praising it after it was passed, in spite of the brou-ha-ha genenerated against it as an affront to the first amendment, by conservatives on the net.

There’s more — including the fact that a filing cabinet worth of info (such as billing records from a lobbyist) can be digitally stored to be retrieved effortlessly years later. You have to wonder if these people are as net-savvy as they painted themselves in the beginning; or if anyone of them, including the candidate, paid a fig’s worth of attention to “information technology” before Fred decided to run.

How many millions of dollars do you need to spend to “explore” a presidential run? It’s not a hard decision. You are taking in millions of dollars and you are either: A. Running for President or B. Bilking people of millions of dollars to keep your ugly mug in the news. Now which is it? As someone said earlier: Crap or get off the pot. I’m tired of hearing about it.

Who controls policy? The vice-president? The budget director? Or in this case, the campaign manager? I think it’s too early to tell about the Thompson policy impact of Abraham.

Didn’t the Dims accuse Miguel Estrada of causing many of Anthony Kennedy’s opinions to be more conservative than Kennedy would have liked? I watched that and thought: “if I was Kennedy I’d be pissed, some asshole Senators saying my clerk controlled my opinions”. Same concept here. It all depends on who’s in control of policy.

One advantage of not officially running yet is that FT can hire and fire people before he gets going in earnest. We’ll probably see Abraham get “Harriet Mier-ed.” Hey dude, take one for the team.

Obama was raised Muslim so he’s in the tank for the iFascists. Hitlery would enable, while her VP, B. Hussein Obama, carried the terrorists’ water. Fred needs to make a clear distinction between himself and the jihadist enablers and “reassign” Abraham. He can be ambassador to Qatar when Fred’s in the White House.

Why is everone getting thier panties in a twist?? Dayum, he is gonna get in on his schedule not one the MSM wants or one we might prefer. He has his game plan and when he announces,only then, will I take a serious look at all he is worth. I have seen him in action and like him but I also like quite a few candidates but nothing that I lose sleep over. This process is long and this fall will be the thinning out party time for both the Dems and Rups. I just want to see someone with some backbone and some honesty and one who will value all of us and not the special interest groups over us. Looking hard at each as they come about and easy to see who the MSM wants running in both parties, it is blantant and shamefull at the same time.

As we used to chant at our high school football games when the other crowd was getting a little overexcited about one particular play, “Scoreboard, Scoreboard,” The guy hasn’t even announced yet, this is all pretty funny. I talk to pretty strong conservatives all the time who really don’t know who he is. If you don’t read blogs, you probably wouldn’t even realize he was running. All the news talk about is Rudy, Hillary, and Obama. Until he announces, you guys can keep trying to shoot him down on every little dumb thing that happens if it makes you feel like you’re smart. My man-love for Fred has not subsided at all. And I’m as pro-life, right-wing, conservative, Christian extremist as they come. Rudy’s a lib, and Mitt doesn’t stand a chance. FRED!!! is still the obvious choice.

$3Million? He’s not even a candidate yet. Pretty impressive for a guy who’s not running yet.

Egfrow on July 30, 2007 at 11:07 PM

He has a Campaign Manager. Therefore, he has a campaign. Thus, he is a candidate. It only qualifies as “testing the waters” on a technicality. The only question now is if he will continue his campaign, or abandon the effort. Anybody who cares knows he is running, and if his supporters expect a “boom” in donations once he officially declares, they are sorely mistaken.

Just a question… traditionally, what office in a new administration does the campaign manager get? Maybe those who are ready to dump Fred need to dig a little and see where Spence Abraham’s office would be. I doubt if it would be V.P.

A thought on Rudi… I doubt if a real conservative could ever get elected as mayor of NYC. Ditto for governor of Taxachusetts.

No wonder the GOP is in trouble. We apparently can’t stand behind our own. So, who is the flawless GOP candidate? Fred can dump Abraham anytime he sees fit…and hopefully soon since Abraham is turning out to be a huge negative. He can change his mind to prolife on the abortion issue like many of us have. As for money, the guy hasn’t declared his candidacy yet and he has more money than McCain. Once he declares, and he should do it sooner than later, my bet is that the money will start pouring in.

Fred!’s coming off as wishy washy by not committing. First it was July 4th, then August, now September when’s he’s going to declare. Everyone was gaga to support him but I think he’s squandered it all. Put up or shut up already!

Have you ever noticed that it’s never, ever been FDT who said when the announcement was going to be? It’s always some unnamed source. The only wishy-washy sentiment I see around here, as captivated_dem said so capably, is delayed gratification among the “I want it and I want it now!” group.

FDT has always said he will announce at the proper time. As much as some people want to believe that by just announcing, some kind of magical event occurs where campaign staff is up and functioning effectively in all 50 states, money is never a problem, and the administration of all the factors that go into a presidential race just take care of themselves, it takes time to develop. That’s why the FEC allows a prospective candidate to have an exploratory phase, to get all of those things in place.

I think many people are just ignoring all the real factors that are going on in this race, so I am attempting to bring a little balance to this debate.

I’m always weary of people us use the term “money hungry” in an attack phrase. We all work for money. I don’t trust those who think they don’t need it.
Egfrow on July 31, 2007 at 10:41 AM

I feel the same way IF we are talking about someone who wants to scrap capitalism. That isn’t the issue with freddie boy. If you’ll take a look at the causes he chose to take up as a lobbyist, you’ll see that fred? ALWAYS went for the cause that had the big bucks even though it was at odds with conservative ideals. Sure it’s legal, but that isn’t the guy I want in the White House. fred? should stick to being a lying arm-twisting lobbyist RINO. That’s what he’s good at.

Have you ever noticed that it’s never, ever been FDT who said when the announcement was going to be?
Tennman on July 31, 2007 at 11:39 AM

hahaha I love you fred?heads! I can always count on you nuancing freds? BS.

Have you ever noticed that fred? has never, ever, dispelled those publicized rumors? His tacit acceptance is a clear indication that this is part of his non-campaign. He purposely misleads and fools those whom he wants support from. Well, I say “up yours freddie boy!”.