The presidential re-election visit to Ireland of the world's
most hated man was a spectacular failure for Bush. As
importantly, the extravaganza backfired on the Irish government.
Bertie Ahern played the part of a lapdog to great affect, and
nobody in Ireland liked it. Unusually, the media in Ireland
refrained from assisting the government from putting a positive
gloss on an unpopular action (given the depth of opposition to
Bush, it couldnpit do anything else), and the Bush administration
was made acutely aware of the deep-felt opposition to the US
president and his “War on Terror”. The Carol Coleman interview
with Bush allowed us all to witness the Texan cowboy squirm when
confronted with his unpopularity amongst the Irish.

It is beyond doubt that Bush was unwelcome - opposed, even - by
an overwhelming majority of people in Ireland. The
demonstrations against Bush were a perfect expression of the
popular view, and all those who participated are to be
commended.

These demos should not be measured solely by the numbers in
attendance. The quality of the various protests was heartening,
and each was highly effective. The Anti-War Ireland
demonstration in Shannon included a substantial contingent of
Shannon residents, one of whose number spoke from the platform -
something that augurs well for the future of the anti-war
movement in its campaign to demilitarise Shannon Airport. The
mood on every demo was upbeat, and the media was captivated.
Consequently, people across the country approved of and
applauded the demos.

Numbers, though not the be-all and end-all (at least, they
shouldnpit be) are nevertheless important. Though the turnout
never approached that of February 15th 2003 (AWI never expected
anything approaching such a turnout), the various demonstrations
were nevertheless well attended.

The Anti-War Ireland demonstration in Shannon attracted 1,200: a
good turnout given the obstacles of a Friday demo in a town
besieged by the state and under the shadow of a media-generated
fear of trouble. The attendance came close to the turnout of the
last big demo in Shannon (1,400: Saturday March 1st 2003), was
nearly a four-fold increase on the most recent demo there (350:
Saturday December 6th 2003), and can be favourably compared to
the last national anti-war demo in Ireland (2,500: Saturday 20th
March 2004). It should be remembered that any previous Shannon
demo would have been the only demo taking place on the day in
question, whereas Friday’s Shannon demo was only one of 4 or 5
demonstrations in Ireland against Bush.

In Dublin, around 15-20,000 marched on the Stop Bush Campaign
demo - a very good turnout (when Reagan came in 1984, the
largest demo attracted 10,000). Elsewhere - notably Galway -
good crowds attended protests. To return to Shannon and
Dromoland, the Stop Bush Campaign and Ambush protests on
Saturday were well attended and very effective. In addition, the
Ambush Peace Camp proved an effective and attractive focus for
both protestors and the media.

The extraordinary and excessive security operation at Shannon -
which virtually depicted protestors as an equal threat to Al
Queda - has been exposed as state scare-mongering. Of course,
the turnout at protests - particularly in Shannon and Dromoland
- was severely depleted by this exercise in black propaganda.
Nevertheless, the impression gained by people in Ireland (and
the media) must surely be that these protests were never going
to be anything but peaceful, and that the government and gardaI
clearly exaggerated the potential for trouble. Future anti-war
protests may benefit from this realisation.

The anti-war movement is now at something of a crossroads. The
popular perception of the war in Iraq is set to change with the
US “handover” of power to a puppet government. The violence
seems set to continue, but we canpit say for sure how the US will
operate in the new scenario. Its preference seems to be for a
gradual “disengagement” (as in Afghanistan) from day-to-day
security operations, in favour of an “Iraqi-isation” formula (as
implemented - with mixed results - in previous colonial
conflicts, eg. Vietnamisation, Ulsterisation). The US, it seems,
may not be afforded the luxury of “disengagement”, but only time
will tell. If the US forms the opinion that the problem is
intractable, it will cut-and-run (regardless of Bushpis
tough-guy, stay-the-course stance). Equally, the US may become
permanently embroiled in the conflict (though this seems less
likely). The key issue for the anti-war movement is how it
operates as perceptions alter.

Finally, the anti-war movement in Ireland must recognise its own
limitations (those imposed by objective conditions, and those
self-imposed). Bush presented us with a brief moment of glory.
But every high - the drug counsellors remind us - is inevitably
succeeded by a low. As always, a sense of perspective can help
us make sense of what’s possible in the next period. I sense
that now is very much a moment for reflection on what to do next.