Chance at Nomination: 7. Barring a serious upset, like a major evangelical group endorsing Romney, his only competition is the oh-so-charismatic Fred Thomson. I’ve yet to figure out exactly why, but I suspect it has something to do with a sort of mass hysteria on the part of Republicans. He’s been branded “America’s Mayor,” and since Bush & co. are leaving them with more baggage than Nixon did, they’ll grasp onto anything that looks like it’ll float, even if it is obviously less seaworthy than the Titanic.

Electability: 1. I’m more inclined to give him a “0,” but I’ll be generous. Rudy is perhaps the worst choice for the Republicans since they tried to re-elect Hoover in 1932. In 2004, Kerry was an easy target for sliming because he didn’t fight back. Giuliani is an easy target because he’s already so slimy. Let’s take one instance that I just found out about: the case of Alan Placa, better known as “Priest F” from the Suffolk County, NY clergy abuse case. Mr. Placa has “consistently protected predators, shrewdly deceived victims, covered up horrific clergy sex crimes,” and been suspended from the Catholic Church, and, were it not for the statute of limitations, would almost certainly a convicted sex offender and on his way to prison for several years. Turns out that Giuliani is friends with Priest F, employs Priest F, and has refused to fire Priest F. Perhaps because it was Priest F that helped Giuliani get his first marriage (to his cousin) annulled, over the objections of his wife, and despite the fact that they knew that they were cousins when they married.

Main Strength: To explain the phenomenon that drives Republicans need to deify Rudy, one needs to understand the tragedy of HUAS, or Head-Up-Ass Syndrome. The truth is that, in a reality based world, Giuliani has no strengths (other than that he’s a white male, so he’s a shoe-in for the bigot vote). I’ve heard victims of HUAS explain that Rudy Giuliani cleaned up New York, has experience fighting terrorism, and can compete for the moderate vote on social issues. #1 is absolutely false. Although it is true that (as Giuliani supporters say) that crime rates fell in NYC during his tenure, they started falling in 1989, so Giuliani’s “tough on crime” policies weren’t responsible, unless there’s some weird space-time continuum thing I’m missing. #2 is true, if you count putting the Office of Emergency Management (OEM) in a known terrorist target as “experience.” And what about social issues? True, he does have a much more “moderate” record on social issues than the rest of the Republican candidates, but this will hurt him in the primaries, and won’t help him much in the general election. Why? Because what politicians call “moderate” is actually far to the right of what most Americans believe. And while Hilary might not be the left’s savior, she’s certainly better than Giuliani

Main Weakness: Giuliani’s single biggest weakness right now is his support for the occupation in Iraq and his continued support for neo-imperialist wars. This is almost certainly calculated to draw as many fundamentalists and industrialists to the primary polls as possible, but it’s a bit like shortening a baseball bat so you can swing it faster. By taking a position opposed by a good two-thirds of voters, he might as well give up now.

Good or Bad: 0. And that’s charitable. Here’s what we can expect from a Giuliani presidency: reduced public health care, a return to J. Edgar Hoover-style law enforcement, national security compromised because he wants to hide an affair (which is why he put the OEM in WTC7), curtailed freedom of speech, even worse cronyism than in the current administration, and more and more troops in the grinder. Scratch the 0; I’m going to have to delve into negative numbers to describe this.