Indeed, despite initial scepticism about her commitment to the environmental agenda, May’s actions on the environment may provide one of her enduring and potentially positive legacies. Her time in office saw an array of action on the environment, most eye-catchingly with the 25 Year Environment Plan. But there was also a swathe of further policy pronouncements and initiatives including the Clean Growth Strategy, a proposed Office for Environmental Protection, the decision to shift agricultural funding to a public money for public goods footing, and bringing forward an Environment Bill.

In addition, Michael Gove brought much needed dynamism and leadership to Defra. Those sympathetic to the environment may view Gove’s exit from the race to Number 10 with regret. Yet, there is a glimmer of hope that, at least in the short term, Gove may stay where he is at Defra to help secure delivery of some important policies – not least a replacement for the EU’s agricultural policy model.

Hunt vs Johnson

What of the remaining contenders, Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt? It seems unlikely given what we know of their ‘selectorate’ in the Conservative Party (97% white, 71% male, average age 57) that they will be pushed on their environmental credentials in the forthcoming hustings. So B&E is happy to fill the gap by reviewing what we know about the green credentials of these two prime ministerial hopefuls.

But what would no deal mean for the environment? Our detailed risk analysis published last year clearly demonstrated that from an environmental perspective no deal is the worst outcome, a view supported by Shaun Spiers in a recent Greener UK blog.

The key concerns raised by a no-deal Brexit are that it would lead to an economic shock and see a downgrading of the environment on the policy agenda. The rush to secure trade deals is likely to lead to UK policy protections being weakened as part of the price for such deals. The farming, fisheries, environment and trade bills are unlikely to be adopted by 31 October leaving significant gaps in policy and governance.

The costs of decarbonisation are likely to increase, and the huge uncertainty around Brexit has already cooled investment in industries that are central to the decarbonisation agenda. Air pollution is likely to increase around ports as lorries queue for clearance.

Clearly then both men’s willingness to countenance no-deal is worrying from an environmental perspective.

Post-Brexit environmental policy

What about their wider policy positions on the environment? Both men have committed to the net-zero by 2050 climate target. But according to OpenDemocracy both men’s campaigns have received contributions from a company owned by a director of the Global Warming Policy Forum, the advocacy arm of the climate-sceptic Global Warming Policy Foundation.

Overall, neither candidate is particularly green. Mr Hunt, whilst by no means a green trailblazer, looks to be a safer pair of hands when it comes to the environmental agenda. However, despite recent stories about Boris Johnson’s private life, he is still the bookie’s favourite to become the UK’s next Prime Minister. Those most likely to support him are also more likely to favour a no-deal Brexit and less likely to care about the environment and climate change.

There is therefore little incentive for Johnson to promote the issue during this leadership contest. It remains is to be seen what either man will do if elected.