Not much new there, you may say, given the reputation Mr. Edwards has earned as the markets’ chief bear, predicting market doom–with only limited success–for close on 20 years now. But he may be now receiving some support.

Mr. Edwards bases his view on weekly U.S. profits starting to fall. “We have long believed that the profits cycle is probably the most important leading indicator for the economic cycle as profits drive the highly volatile business investment component of GDP,” said Mr. Edwards, in a note to investors.

A decline in profits is inevitably followed by recession shortly thereafter as businesses cut investment, he added.

Mr. Edwards acknowledges that other profit measures in the U.S. look healthy, but “experience shows us that it is not the level of profits, nor the rate of profitability (ROE), nor the level of margins that drives the investment cycle. Instead it is the rate of growth of profits that should be monitored.”

“While the Dow Transports made a new high in March, the Dow Industrials did not. The latter’s failure to hit a new high is currently a red flag,” Paul said.

Followers of Dow Theory maintain the industrials and transports indexes need to move in lockstep to confirm a market’s trend–a theory based on the thinking that making goods is one leg of the industrial economy and moving those goods around is the second leg, so their trends should be in sync.

Analysts at Credit Suisse point to the end of the year for when things might start getting a bit sticky.

“Markets typically do not correct until six months before the first rate hike or three to four weeks after the end of QE. This implies late Q4 is the problematic time for equities,” said Credit Suisse’s Andrew Garthwaite.

New Federal Reserve Governor Janet Yellen indicated last week it would be appropriate for the market to expect the Fed’s first rate hike to come around six months after the end of its bond-buying program, which at the current rate of reduction would occur in the final quarter of this year.

Credit Suisse Tuesday halved the size of its overweight stance on the asset class, pointing to concerns over China’s growth. That said, “only sub-5% GDP growth would lead us to underweight equities.”