Friday, December 31, 2010

Taking Advantage of Target Field

Perhaps the
biggest Twins event of 2010 was the opening of the new downtown ballpark. With
much fanfare and hype, Minnesota baseball returned to the natural environments.

However,
after the first full season not everyone had rave reviews about the newly
constructed baseball cathedral. The field drew criticisms from members of the
offense that the park was unfair and deflating their power totals. In November,
Justin Morneau even implored
via email to the Star Tribune beat writers that the Twins should consider
altering the confines:

"Right-center to left-center is ridiculous. It's] almost
impossible for a righthanded hitter to [homer to the] opposite field and very
difficult for lefties. It affects the hitters a lot, and you start to develop
bad habits as a hitter when you feel like you can only pull the ball to hit it
over the fence. You take those habits on the road."

Because of
the wall height, distance, temperature
and wind
patterns, the field in its first season deterred plenty of would-be home
runs back on to the field. Nowhere was this more prevalent than in the area
Morneau noted. Michael Cuddyer, who had hit nine home runs to center and right-center
at the Metrodome in 2009, was able to reach those seats just once in 2010.
Likewise, Jason Kubel hit 10 home runs in center and right-center at the
Metrodome in ’09 but just two this past season.

In the
recently released Hardball Times Annual 2011, Greg Rybarczyk, operator of the
seminal site HitTrackerOnline.com which
tracks “true” distances of the league’s home runs, published what he considered
the “Ultimate Home Run Park Factors”.

For those unfamiliar
with the metric, Park Factors measures the influence of a ballpark’s
configuration that may increase or decrease the possibility of offense in
comparison to other parks across baseball. By ESPN.com’s account, Target Field
finished dead last when it came to home runs. Although ESPN.com has been
carrying this number for years on their website unlike Rybarczyk’s totals, the
World Wide Sports Leader’s website does not include wind patterns and temperature
into their equation.

Rybarczyk’s
research revealed that, thanks to the extremely inviting Crawford Boxes down
the left field line, the Houston Astros’ home ballpark, Minute Maid Park, was
the easiest field to hit a home run at (especially if you were a right-handed
pull hitter) with an overall Home Run Park Factor of 119. Conversely, based on the
distance and size of the walls (16 feet high around), Citi Field in Queens was
considered the most difficult venue to book a round-trip vacation at with an
overall Home Run Park Factor of 70.

Probably to
the surprise of Morneau and company, Rybarczyk’s findings showed that Target
Field’s overall Home Run Park Factor was 96, ranking 16th out of 32
possible major league stadiums. This is an astonishingly neutral result:

“True” Home Run Park
Factors

LF

LCF

CF

RCF

RF

Total

Target Field

96

104

98

103

84

96

Average

97

97

97

97

97

97

(via Hardball
Times Annual 2011)

What we find,
based on Rybarczyk’s conclusions, is that Target Field isn’t all that daunting after
all. Certainly from the alley-to-alley the field is a bit home run resistant,
but in general, the corners are favorable (right field is a particularly alluring
spot for left-handed sluggers who pull the ball) and the ballpark rated out as
a field that slightly favors hitters. In short, hitters like Cuddyer, Kubel and
Morneau may struggle at times to vacate the field in center and right-center,
but they will also be rewarded if they pull the ball a bit more.

While Morneau
stated his concern that the home configurations would ultimately affect how
players hit on the road, Delmon Young was one player who recognized that this
wasn’t a bad thing. After posting a .576 slugging percentage with 7 home runs
while pulling the ball in ’09, Young demonstrated much better pop by knocking
out 17 home runs to left while slugging a much more robust .846 when pulling
the ball. Without much alteration to their approach, Cuddyer and Kubel might be
able to mirror Young’s success.

If you are in
charge of the team-building for the Twins, what this means is that your ideal
free agent acquisition is either a (1) dead-pull hitter to either field or (2)
a line drive hitter to center/alleys (fly balls will likely just die in the
wind). If you are targeting a free agent who has a majority of their home runs
to the alleys or center field, that player is probably going to witness a
significant drop in power. This means that someone like Derrek Lee, who has hit
nine of his 19 home runs to center, right-center and right, would likely not replicate
that total in a Twins uniform. Meanwhile, someone like Vladimir Guerrero, who
pulled 23 of his 29 home runs in ’10, would likely have a better chance of
having his power numbers remain static.

To be sure, despite
the neutral results in ’10, Rybarczyk also acknowledges that Target Field may
wind up playing more towards the pitcher in the future but, at the same time, the
field should not finish dead last like ESPN.com’s Park Factors suggests:

“Target Field
is a fair park if you consider only the field dimensions, but the cool temperatures
will shave some distance off most homers hit in the Twins’ new park. I suspect
that after an adjustment period, home runs will settle in at Target Field at a
level around 90 overall, based on the fence layout and the early and
late-season temperatures.”

In the end, the Twins will simply
have to learn how to cope with their surroundings. In terms of offense, either
hitters need to attempt to pull the ball more if they want the extravagant home
run totals or look to capitalize on the spacious alleyways if they can
settle for the home run’s less sexy cousin, the double. Delmon Young made some
adjustments and it served him well, leading to a team-high 25 doubles at home. Similarly,
Danny Valenica, a line drive machine to center field, hit .386 at Target Field
by shooting gaps. These success stories can be emulated.

By focusing on playing to the field’s
strengths in 2011, the Twins will be able to produce a distinct home field
advantage.

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"Parker Hageman is the Michael Cuddyer of Twins bloggers -- not the flashiest guy out there, but a solid everyday player. Hageman produces spot-on analysis ... relying on in-depth stats and lots of charts. He takes a sober, performance-based view of players, letting others fall for a player's heart or his leadership skills in the clubhouse. Hageman is one of the four pillars holding up the Star Tribune's TwinsCentric blog."