Forecasters Predict an Active and Dangerous Hurricane Season

The Atlantic hurricane season starts on June 1st, and forecasters
are predicting an active season. Hurricane forecasters at Colorado
State University (CSU), employing a statistical system based on past
trends, are predicting a "very active" season with landfall
probabilities "well above their long-period averages." Their updated
forecast, released in April, projects 17 named storms, of which 9 will
become hurricanes. Five of those hurricanes are expected to become
intense, and the probability of a major hurricane landfall in the
United States is estimated to be about 55 percent higher than the
long-term average. The forecasters report that the Atlantic Ocean
"remains anomalously warm." See the CSU press release and forecast.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed
the warming of the Atlantic Ocean on May 1st, noting that the region
where hurricanes originate has warmed several tenths of a degree
Celsius over the 20th century. According to NOAA, new climate models
"suggest that human activity, such as increasing greenhouse gas
emissions into the atmosphere, may contribute significantly to this
warming." With hurricane season approaching soon, NOAA is on a five-day hurricane preparedness tour along the Gulf Coast and Florida this
week. See the NOAA press releases on the ocean warming and the hurricane preparedness tour.

Meanwhile, the Minerals Management Service (MMS) has boosted its
estimate of the damage to oil and gas infrastructure from Hurricanes
Katrina and Rita. The MMS raised the number of damaged pipelines from
183 to 457 and raised the number of large pipelines that were damaged
from 64 to 101. Of the large pipelines, only 32 have returned to
service. On the positive side, of four major platforms that were
damaged, three will return to service soon, and the fourth will return
to service late this year. See the MMS press release.