Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031536 CCA
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE MAR 3 2015
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1500 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 02N82W TO 06N106W TO 04N114W TO 06N131W TO
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60
NM OF 4.5N89.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 10N
BETWEEN 106W AND 108W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N OF ITCZ AXIS W OF 130W.
...DISCUSSION...
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 37N116W TO 20N130W. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE TROPICS FROM 28N114W TO
19N119W TO 16N133W...AND A 1011 MB CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR
30N119W ASSOCIATED WITH COLD CORE OF AN UPPER LOW. SCATTEROMETER
DATA SHOWS TWO AREAS OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS...ONE FROM 10N TO
22N W OF 128W...AND THE OTHER N OF 27N BETWEEN 122W AND 128W.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES AREA OF ENHANCED TRADES WILL SHIFT W OF
140W AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH WED. 1034 MB HIGH WELL N OF THE
AREA EXTENDS RIDGE SOUTHWARD TO 20N W OF 127W.
GAP WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA E OF 110W...WITH THE
TYPICAL GAP AREAS SEEING MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW SPILLING ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EAST-PAC FROM THE CARIBBEAN. MOST OF
THESE LOCATIONS WILL SEE WINDS MAXIMUM DRAINAGE FLOW DURING LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH EARLY WED THEN WEAKEN THU.
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...HOLLAND AMERICA CRUISE SHIP VEENDAM...CALL
SIGN PHEO...REPORTED GALE FORCE WINDS BETWEEN 0900 AND 1200 UTC
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER WAVE HEIGHTS AND CLEAR HIGH BIAS OF PAST
OBSERVATIONS...ALONG WITH SALINA CRUZ AUTOMATED OBS...DOES NOT
SUPPORT WINDS HIGHER THAN 30 KT TODAY. GFS MODEL SHOWS GAP WINDS
QUICKLY DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS BY THIS EVENING WITH SEAS
RAPIDLY SUBSIDING AS WELL. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT GAP WIND EVENT
WILL BEGIN LATE THU AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE W
GULF OF MEXICO...WITH WINDS QUICKLY INCREASING TO STRONG GALE
THU NIGHT...AND REACHING NEAR STORM FORCE EARLY FRI.
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE...
WITH NOCTURNAL PULSES REACHING 25 KT TONIGHT AND WED NIGHT.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THU AS PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS.
GULF OF PANAMA...FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED IN THE
GULF AND DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 04N THROUGH WED NIGHT...THEN WEAKEN
EARLY THU BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AS PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS.
$$
MUNDELL