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Monday, January 2, 2012

Six Possible Post-Iowa Hangovers

With the release of last night's PPP poll of Iowa, the results of that state's caucuses (tomorrow!) are looking more and more like a complete tossup. To recap for those of you who may just be emerging from a holiday-induced weeklong slumber: Mitt Romney and especially Ron Paul had been looking the strongest in Iowa, but Rick Santorum has picked up steam and is now nipping closely at their heels. Nate Silver's projections currently show Romney with 21.8%, Paul with 21.0%, and Santorum with 19.3%.

Such a minuscule margin raises the question of whether it even matters what order those three finish in; their vote totals will be so close, the actual winner will almost be random. We political junkies are all waiting breathlessly to see who wins on Tuesday, but is it even that suspenseful? Three candidates are going to be roughly tied, and three are going to pull up the rear.

While many people will argue that it doesn't matter (especially the campaign manager of the third-place finisher), I think it does. Sure, the top three candidates may earn identical numbers of convention delegates tomorrow (the ostensible reason that we go through this grueling primary season), but early primary elections are primarily about expectations and narrative-building. The media loves to anoint a winner, and the first-place finisher will have a much easier time arguing that they have that magic elixir of campaigns, momentum. The headlines on Wednesday, and the trajectory that the campaign narrative takes, will very much hinge on the order of finish, even if first and third are separated by one percentage point.

But we don't have to wait for Wednesday to find out what those headlines will be. Barring a shocking showing by Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry, or Michele Bachmann, there are exactly six possible outcomes of the 2012 Iowa caucuses. What could we expect to result from each one?

Scenario A

1. Mitt Romney
2. Ron Paul
3. Rick Santorum

This is probably Romney's favorite scenario. Because of his dominant polling numbers in New Hampshire, it would almost certainly result in the former Massachusetts governor sweeping the first two states, shutting out his opponents and making him feel even more like the inevitable nominee.

Scenario B

1. Mitt Romney
2. Rick Santorum
3. Ron Paul

This is obviously also great for Romney, who would still look unbeatable coming off twin Iowa and New Hampshire victories. But a second-place finish for Santorum—long considered the fringest of the fringe—would thrill his campaign and perhaps position him as the default candidate for the evangelical wing of the party, which could make things interesting in South Carolina. This scenario would also be spun as a falling-back-down-to-earth for Ron Paul, whose quirky candidacy is always teetering on the edge of being considered a joke by the media.

Scenario C

1. Ron Paul
2. Mitt Romney
3. Rick Santorum

This might fairly be called the boring outcome, as it's in line with many recent polls and might have the smallest impact on the dynamics of this campaign. The Paul camp would be delighted, of course, but it doesn't change the fact that he of the libertarian views is going to have a hard time ever winning a majority of Republican votes/delegates. Meanwhile, both Romney and Santorum would chalk this up as a solid showing but—tacitly admitting that it's nothing special—would both give speeches on caucus night of the "Let's soldier on and build upon what we did tonight" variety. Outlook: unchanged. Long-term advantage: still Romney.

Scenario D

1. Ron Paul
2. Rick Santorum
3. Mitt Romney

In contrast, in this scenario, Romney would put on a brave face but would have to be privately disappointed with the outcome. After assiduously keeping expectations low in Iowa, he went all out in the last month—only to be upstaged by two stereotypical single-digit candidates. Runner-up Santorum could use the momentum to make Romney's life difficult in the South, and Paul would be in his strongest possible position to achieve his stated goal of a brokered convention.

Scenario E

1. Rick Santorum
2. Mitt Romney
3. Ron Paul

This is the Rocky scenario—the underdog comes from all the way behind to win. The media would explode with "Santorum surge" stories as the former Pennsylvania senator would be anointed the latest non-Romney frontrunner while Paul, the current non-Romney, would be relegated to the second tier. However, with Romney still placing a respectable second (behind a guy who has lived in Iowa for the past 12 months), he would easily be able to shake off the loss to outspend and out-organize Santorum in the remaining states. This is the outcome Romney has been ready for since this campaign started—whether the name at the top was Bachmann, Perry, or anyone else.

Scenario F

1. Rick Santorum
2. Ron Paul
3. Mitt Romney

In this case we'd be treated to both "Santorum surges" and "Romney reels" headlines. This is the worst scenario for Romney, who would continue to face questions about why Republican voters keep refusing to get behind him. Even worse, while he coasts to an easy win in New Hampshire, the media may choose to ignore that increasingly unsuspenseful contest and give more coverage to Santorum in South Carolina or Florida. If Santorum manages the response right, he could translate Iowa into a series of wins in the Bible Belt and knock out the other evangelical candidates—whose vote totals combined would easily defeat Romney (and Paul) one on one. Hmmm...

1 comment:

I don't know that I'd classify Scenario C as the "boring" one. Sure, perhaps for political junkies who've been following the polling in the last few weeks it wouldn't come off as a major upset, but I think to the average Joe Schmoe it might be quite surprising and cause him to consider a candidate he'd written off as a nobody. I don't think it'll change the outcome of New Hampshire (that seems pretty locked in to Romney), but I think it could potentially give momentum to Paul in the later states.

Also, I find the style of caucuses quite exciting. Polls imitate the primary-style of choosing delegates. But the caucuses don't have individual people pulling individual levers -- it's a more social thing, where persuation and discussion is part of the game. I wonder if this will give Paul (with his ardent supporters) a leg up over the other guys.