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Monday, September 06, 2010

Trade review 9-3-10

I got some of them right...

Hits:

SRZ

Cheap victory can be claimed here as it reddened, following the previous unchanged session push, but its stubbornness is enough to advise dropping it from your first tier shorting list, I know it is off mine. Down less than 1% but any sane cover made more as it fell earlier on and spent hours recovering most of the lost ground.

CCUR

Opened near the hod from a gap down and faded nicely all day, en route to a down finish of 4-5% on Friday. Profit taking dumps are possible even on earnings winner plays, but you have to be careful. In the end, live price action never really lies. Always be objective about the directionality cues of a stock you are trading! Do not assume that if you think a direction is likely or due that it is true, if the price moves say otherwise, etc.

PSTR

Opened flat somewhat near the hod, then gently faded as the day wore on, en route to a red finish of over 5%

CMGR

Huge scalp and more long from the gun on this news catalyst stock, which again well off its highs for the day. Late arriving longs bought into the storyline, yielding a scalp entry. Save for a slight gap up and crap, after the infamous first 5 minutes which are usually not trade able, the stock rebounded nicely, despite fading off later on. Still in play for Tuesday.

Misses:

REXX

Except for the first 5 minutes of a fakeout gap and crap, this zoomed all day once again. No green to red or price lower than the opening number arose. Hence, no play was correct. Short weakness faltering cues only, in most cases. Please read this excellent post by another blogger: http://thedailyvento.blogspot.com/2008/08/trading-in-morning.html to learn why I also usually avoid trading in any direction in the first 5 minutes of a session. Still in play for the shorts. Arguably score able as a push for the above reasons, by the way. Since it would have been possible to be sucked in as a short entering a bit early, a loss it is.

CBCGQ

Did not advance from the gun on a spike, first 5 minute candle was red. Soon the direction turned upward, and steadily it advanced. I saw this mostly as a short, so it should honestly be scored as a loss. Up nearly 43% on Friday.

Push:

ATADF

No play. Opened at the lod, so nobody should have shorted this yet as it advanced from the first print, all day. I consider this a push since as I often say, when stalking and waiting for an over extension or Supernovae to pop, you only enter on weakness cues. This was strong ( especially after the first 5 minutes, and it remember trading in the first 5 minutes can be risky) all day long, so the correct action was nothing. Still in play, natch.

SOBM

No play. Promotion reeking number did have a bit more, opening at the lod on a flat open. It gently rose all day, en route to a green finish of over 3% but no play or a boxed long was in force on this as it never sported weakness cues, so no short entry ever arose, hence a push is a fair result. A weakness cue means something like an early green to red, trading (after 5 minutes) under the first price of the current day, morning panic, etc. If it rises from the gun as the session opens, you obviously would not enter against strength, waiting for later faltering. If it never comes, (as here) you simply stay flat.

BORN

Arguably a win, as this did spike out of the open providing the hod in the first 5 minute candle print. But it was really a busted "no play" situation like the above 2 stocks as it opened on a gap up OVER 10, instead of the planned test of it from below. Sometimes gap ups or downs can ruin trading plans made the night before. The correct course was to stay flat. Finished green by less than 1% and sported choppy price action mostly.