Iraq Edges Toward Stability

Iraq was far from
secure by the end of 2007, but for the first time since the war began, the
country began to edge toward stability. The number of Iraqi civilian deaths
began to decline by year’s end, violence had fallen to the lowest
level since the spring of 2005, moderate Sunnis started to turn
against the Sunni al-Qaeda in Mesopotamia and formed what is called the Awakening movement and supported the U.S., and
Shiites began to back the Iraqi government rather than the Iran-sponsored
Mahdi Army, which is led by radical, anti-U.S. Shiite cleric Moktada al-Sadr.

“I came away from all of it feeling very good about the direction
of things in the security arena, about what is going on at the local and
provincial level in terms of people reaching out to each other, crossing
tribal, sectarian and provincial boundaries to work together,” said
U.S. defense secretary Robert Gates after a trip to Iraq in
December.

The one major obstacle to normalcy remained the lack of
solid Iraqi leadership. Indeed, by the end of the year, expectations that
the country would move closer to reconciliation and that the Iraqi
government would pass legislation to divide the country’s oil revenue
and establish protocol for provincial elections all but diminished. The only
benchmarks that remained within reach were that Parliament would pass a
budget and a law that would allow Baathists to return to the government posts they
held under Saddam Hussein.

Attacks Begin to
Wane

Although 2007 culminated as the deadliest year in Iraq for U.S.
soldiers, the U.S. military reported in November that for several
consecutive weeks, the number of car bombs, roadside bombs, mines, rocket
attacks, and other violence had fallen to the lowest level in nearly two
years. In addition, the Iraqi Red Crescent reported that some 25,000
refugees (out of about 1.5 million) who had fled to Syria had returned to
Iraq between September and the beginning of December. However, many of these
returning refugees found their homes vandalized or occupied by squatters. In addition,
previously diverse neighborhoods had become segregated as a result of the
sectarian violence.

President Bush attributed these gains to the surge
of 30,000 troops deployed to Baghdad in February. Other factors played a
part, including the cooperation of Sunni rebels and the ceasefire declared
by al-Sadr in August.

But signs of improvement didn’t emerge
until the end of the year. Indeed, several Sunni tribal leaders who joined
forces with the U.S. to fight Sunni militants were killed in two separate
attacks in Anbar Province in June and September. In addition, an August
National Intelligence Estimate said the Iraqi government had failed to end
sectarian violence even with the surge of American troops. That was followed
by a highly anticipated testimony in September by Gen. David Petraeus before
the House Foreign Affairs and Armed Services committees in which he said
that although the surge of troops has been effective in reducing violence,
the U.S. military needs more time to meet its goals in Iraq.

"The
military objectives of the surge are in large measure being met," Petraeus
said. “One reason for the decline in incidents is that Coalition and
Iraqi forces have dealt significant blows to Al Qaeda-Iraq.” He also
said while “the situation in Iraq remains complex, difficult, and
sometimes downright frustrating, I also believe that it is possible to
achieve our objectives in Iraq over time, though doing so will be neither
quick nor easy.”

Petraeus said if progress continued the number
of troops in Iraq may be reduced from 160,000 troops to 130,000 beginning in
July 2008. U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker also testified, expressing
frustration about the situation in Iraq. He said that while Iraqi leaders
and the people are capable of—and desire to—bridge the sectarian
divide, "I frankly do not expect that we will see rapid progress," he
said.

Blackwater Ordeal

Opponents of the war have used the failure of the Iraqi government to
achieve the political benchmarks as an argument for a withdrawal of troops.
Legislative efforts to create a timetable for a pullback or to tie funding
to such a withdrawal failed repeatedly in Congress throughout the year.
Indeed, the Democrats’ slim majority in both houses was not enough to
force a change in policy.

The Bush administration endured fierce
criticism in September, when 17 Iraqi civilians, including a couple and
their infant, were killed by employees of private security company
Blackwater USA, who were escorting a State Department convoy. In October,
the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform reported that
employees of Blackwater had been involved in some 200 shootings in Iraq and
that the company paid some families of victims and tried to cover up other
incidents. According to the report, Blackwater's use of force has been
"frequent and extensive, resulting in significant casualties and property
damage." The FBI followed with an equally scathing assessment in November,
reporting that 14 of the 17 shootings were unjustified and the guards were
reckless in their use of deadly force.

Such military contractors have
been in legal limbo, under the jurisdiction of neither the U.S. or Iraq.
Under pressure from the Iraqi government and international scorn, Congress
and the Bush administration swiftly moved to change the policy. In October,
the House approved a bill that would place U.S. government contractors under
the jurisdiction of U.S. criminal law and the State Department announced
that its own monitors will accompany Blackwater employees on all security
convoys.

Number of U.S. troops in
Iraq at the end of 2007: 162,000

Number of casualties for 2007

U.S. troops (through Dec. 31):

901

Iraqi civilians (through Dec. 31):

17,586

Iraqi security forces (through Dec. 31):

1,836

Estimated war costs of Iraq: fiscal year 2007:

$133.2 billion

Total U.S. fatalities since 2003: U.S. deaths (as of Dec.
31):

3,907

Total cost of war 2003-2007:

$448.6 billion

Source: Iraq Coalition Casualty Count:
http://icasualties.org.

Destruction of CIA Interrogation Tapes

The
Bush administration was rocked by scandal in December, when it was revealed
that in 2005 the CIA destroyed videotapes of the 2002 interrogation of two
al-Qaeda suspects, Abu Zubaydah and Abd al-Rahim al-Nashiri. The tapes,
which included hundreds of hours of questioning, reportedly showed agency
operatives using severe interrogation techniques, including waterboarding,
which simulates drowning.

The revelation once again turned attention
to the Bush administration’s policy of condoning the use harsh
interrogation tactics to obtain intelligence information from terror
suspects. The CIA said that the Justice Department and members of the Bush
administration had approved the techniques used in the
interrogations.

In 2005, Congress passed the Detainee Treatment Act
that banned “cruel, inhumane, or degrading treatment” of
prisoners held in U.S. custody. However, in July 2007, President Bush signed
an executive order giving CIA the authority to use a number of harsh
interrogation methods, which are not allowed in military interrogations but
have been determined by the Justice Department to comply with the Geneva
Conventions, when questioning terrorism suspects. In December 2007, the
Senate and House intelligence committees voted to outlaw all methods of
interrogation that are banned in the Army Field Manual, which prohibits
waterboarding.

CIA director Michael Hayden said the tapes, if
released, posed a "serious security risk" and could have jeopardized the
safety of CIA officials and their families because the faces of the CIA
operatives were visible on the tapes.

Tapes
Were Withheld Despite Requests

The tapes were not given to members of
the Sept. 11 commission, which had formally requested such evidence, nor
were they handed over to the defense team of terrorism suspect Zacarias
Moussaoui. During Moussaoui’s trail, his lawyers sought to determine
if other terrorism suspects had implicated him during their interrogations,
and federal judge Leonie Brinkema told the government to turn over any such
evidence. The CIA, it was reported, said the evidence did not
exist.

“The C.I.A. certainly knew of our interest in getting all
the information we could on the detainees, and they never indicated to us
there were any videotapes,” said Lee Hamilton, a co-chairman of the
Sept. 11 Commission. “Did they obstruct our inquiry? The answer is
clearly yes. Whether that amounts to a crime, others will have to
judge.”

Both the House and Senate intelligence committees began
investigations into the destruction of the tapes.

Political Dismissal of Federal Prosecutors

By
all accounts, President Bush places a high value on loyalty among the
members of his administration. Indeed, loyal “Bushies” have been
rewarded with plum assignments and positions. Loyalty, however, proved to be
the downfall of Alberto Gonzales, who resigned in August under intense
pressure from Democrats and Republicans alike over what appears to be the
politically motivated firing of ten U.S. federal prosecutors.

The plan
to dismiss U.S. attorneys was hatched in early 2005, when Harriet Miers,
then White House counsel, recommended to Justice Department officials that
all 93 prosecutors be fired in a wholesale housecleaning. The proposal was
deemed impractical, but it did start the process of dismissing attorneys who
were not adhering to the president’s agenda in choosing which cases to
prosecute. In an email to Miers, D. Kyle Sampson, then chief of staff to
Gonzales, outlined a method to rank the prosecutors. Those he recommended
for dismissal had been “ineffectual managers and prosecutors, chafed
against administration initiatives.” He suggested keeping the U.S.
attorneys “who have produced, managed well, and exhibited loyalty to
the president and attorney general.”

Aide Contradicts Attorney General’s
Role

Sampson resigned in March when the extent of his involvement in
the firings became public. In his testimony before the Senate Judiciary
Committee, Sampson contradicted earlier statements by Gonzales that the
attorney general was not involved in planning the dismissals of U.S.
attorneys. "I don't think the attorney general's statement that he was not
involved in any discussions about U.S. attorney removals is accurate," he
said.

Gonzales had claimed he was not personally involved in choosing
which attorneys to fire, but instead had delegated that job to Sampson.
Gonzales, answering a question about his role in the dismissals, said
“I never saw documents. We never had a discussion about where things
stood.” He also said that he “was not involved in any
discussions about what was going on.” But documents released later
revealed that Gonzales led a meeting about the plan ten days before the
firings occurred.

At a hearing in April before the Senate Judiciary
Committee, Gonzales conceded that although the process in which eight U.S.
attorneys were fired was flawed, the dismissals were justified. He cited a
bad memory more than 50 times when he failed to answer questions about key
parts of the dismissal process. “Although the process was nowhere near
as rigorous or structured as it should have been,” Gonzales said,
“and while reasonable people might decide things differently, my
decision to ask for the resignations of these U.S. attorneys is
justified.”

Democrats and Republicans disagreed. “I think
it’s clear to me that some of these people just had personality
conflicts with people in your office or at the White House and…and
made up reasons to fire them,” said Republican senator Lindsey
Graham.

Throughout the scandal, President Bush remained steadfast in
his support for Gonzales, even as high-ranking Republicans called for his
resignation. Bush repeatedly called Gonzales a man of integrity, and at the
swearing in of Gonzales’s successor, Michael Mukasey, said, “Al
Gonzales worked tirelessly to make this country
safer.”

Announcing his resignation in August, Gonzales said,
“Even my worst days as attorney general have been better than my
father's best days. I have lived the American dream.”

“It
has been a long and difficult struggle, but at last the attorney general has
done the right thing and stepped down,” said Charles Schumer, the
Democratic senator from New York. “For the previous six months, the
Justice Department has been virtually nonfunctional, and desperately needs
new leadership.”

Democrats in Control of Congress

On January 4,
2007, California Democrat Nancy Pelosi became the first woman Speaker of the
House as Democrats took control of both houses of Congress for the first
time since 1994. She immediately embarked on an ambitious agenda, vowing to
use the first 100 hours of 110th Congress to pass lobbying reform, increase
the national minimum wage, implement the recommendations of the September 11
Commission, and cut the cost of prescription drugs for seniors.

The
House succeeded in passing a flurry of measures in January, including a rule
requiring legislators to disclose when they attach earmarks to bills; an
increase to the minimum wage to $7.25 over two years; lobbying reform, and
an expansion of stem cell research. The former two bills were signed into
law by President Bush; he vetoed the latter.

President Bush Vetoed Several Bills

The rest
of the year was not quite as productive for Congress. On several occasions
throughout the year, Democrats failed to muster the votes to enact
legislation to establish a timetable for a pullback of troops from Iraq or
to tie funding to such a withdrawal. Bush vetoed a $124 billion spending
bill for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. The bill called on the Bush
administration to establish benchmarks for the Iraqi government that, if
met, set a timetable for the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq. "Setting a
deadline for withdrawal is setting a date for failure, and that would be
irresponsible," Bush said.

President Bush used his veto pen five other
times in 2007. Throughout his seven years in office, he has vetoed a total
of only seven bills. The other vetoes included a law that would ease
restrictions on federal funding of embryonic stem cell research and a bill,
which Bush vetoed twice, that would have increased the funding of the State
Children's Health Insurance Program (SCHIP) to provide health insurance to
more than 10 million uninsured children.

Congress overrode one of the
vetoes— the Water Resources Development Act, a $23 billion bill
funding 900 programs, including $3.5 billion for areas destroyed by
Hurricane Katrina. It was the first time Congress has overridden a Bush
veto.

After months of negotiation and compromise, Congress once again
failed to pass legislation on immigration reform. The failure of the bill
was considered a major blow to President Bush, who has made such legislation
a domestic policy priority. In addition, as soon as Congress passed a law in
August that legalized government eavesdropping of telephone conversations
and emails of American citizens and people overseas without a warrant, it
was working to revise the much-criticized bill when it expires in February
2008.

Presidential
Election

For election history and statistics, candidate biographies,
and party politics, see Campaign
2008.

An accelerated primary schedule that has the Iowa caucuses
on January 3 and the New Hampshire primary just five days later resulted in
an early presidential campaign season. (Or was it the other way around, and
the early campaign season resulted in early primaries?) Regardless, the
races for the Democratic and Republican nominations were in full force in
early 2007.

Throughout the year, Democrat Hillary Clinton, a senator
from New York, maintained a sizable lead over Illinois senator Barack Obama
and former North Carolina senator John Edwards. Clinton’s campaign,
however, began to show signs of strain in November and December, which was
reflected in the polls. The other candidates—Bill Richardson,
Christopher Dodd, Joe Biden, and Dennis Kucinich—trailed far behind
and struggled to fill seats at campaign events and generate press
coverage.

The race was much tighter on the Republican side, with
former New York City mayor Rudolph Giuliani, former Massachusetts governor
Mitt Romney, John McCain, and Fred Thompson polling in a near dead heat
throughout the summer and fall. Former Arizona governor Mick Huckabee, who
failed to register even a blip in early polls, emerged as a frontrunner in
December. His rise coincided with Thompson’s fall. Thompson has yet to
find his voice on the campaign trail and gave several lackluster
performances at the debates.

On both sides, immigration, the war in
Iraq, healthcare, and the environment dominated the campaign. With President
Bush’s approval ratings nearing all-time lows, the Republicans seemed
focused on distancing themselves from the current administration. With
sunnier than expected reports coming out of Iraq, Democrats had to
recalibrate their own campaigns to take the focus away from the war.