About Playing with Comdolls

Welcome to my blog! I am HappyPip, lady trader of the Commodity Dollars or "ComDolls!" We will look at price action of the Australian Dollar, New Zealand Dollar, and the Canadian Dollar, as well as their respective economies, and how commodities prices may affect their long term movements. Put on a "happy face" and come join me, won't ya! :)

Trading USD/CAD’s Uptrend – Profit Target Hit!

Profit Target Hit 2012-06-01 06:54
Yipee! Even if I’m a little disappointed that my second entry order didn’t get triggered, I’m still giddy over my recent win. USD/CAD finally hit my profit target at the 1.0350 minor psychological resistance, which was close to top WATR.

Although it looks like USD/CAD is headed much further north, I decided to lock in my profits prior to today’s NFP release. After all, I mentioned that I’d be holding on to this one as a day trade only. As I learned the hard way from my previous AUD/USD short trade, I should always stick to the plan!

Here’s how it all turned out:

P/L: +70 pips / +0.3%

Woohoo! Another week in the green, baby!

From the comments below, I noticed that a couple of my comdoll buddies were also able to cash in on this short-term trade and I’m pretty sure some of y’all have been watching this pair, too. Let me know how your comdoll trades are working out, okay?

For now, I’ll just sit on the sidelines during the NFP release and maybe catch a movie with my friends later today. Did any of you see Snow White and the Huntsman yet? I’m a huge fan of Charlize Theron and I’m seeing great reviews of her role in this movie. I’d love to hear your thoughts on this one, too!

Have a happy weekend!

Trade Update 2012-05-31 10:45
Wee! My USD/CAD trade is working like a charm!

Okay, maybe price action did miss my second order by a mere 2 PIPS, but hey, a win is still a win, right? I guess I have the U.S. session economic reports to thank. Not only did the U.S. ADP report print weak numbers, but the preliminary quarterly GDP reading and Chicago PMI also missed expectations.

These data inspired a broad risk selloff, which also took its toll on the Loonie. Never mind that Canada released better-than-expected current account numbers!

With USD/CAD breaking above the major 1.0300 handle, I decided to protect my profits. As of writing my second order at 1.0260 is canceled, while the stop loss on my first position is moved to break even.

I’m crossing my fingers that the USD/CAD bulls have enough energy to push the pair up by at least 10 more pips! Eep, I’m so excited! Do you think price will reach my PT today?

Trade Idea: 2012-05-31 03:51

This is it, folks! I’m going for another retracement play this week but this time, I’m looking at USD/CAD. Does this setup look familiar to you?

If you’ve been participating in our discussions in my Comdoll Corner for USD/CAD, then you’d know where you’ve seen this trend line setup before. As I pointed out, there’s a rising trend line connecting the pair’s low’s on the 4-hour time frame and it appears to be holding at the moment.

I drew a new set of Fibs on the most recent rally and noticed that the 50% Fib is right in line with a former resistance level, which could now act as support. And did I mention that it coincides with the trend line, too? Pretty sweet, if you ask me!

However, the pair is already finding support at the 38.2% retracement level so I decided to hop in at market with half my usual position size. I set another long order at the 50% Fib area in case price still dips that low before resuming its climb. My stop loss is located at 1.0225, just below the trend line, previous day low, and Fibs. Don’t forget to check out our risk disclosure if you plan on taking this setup, too.

As for my target, I’ll be aiming for top WATR but I’ll move my stop to breakeven once price hits the previous week high. In case you have absolutely no idea where those levels are, you should check them out on this week’s Comdoll Trading Kit.

With a bunch of red flags over the next couple of days, I’ll be sure to watch this trade like a hawk. The economic calendar shows that we have the U.S. preliminary GDP, ADP non-farm employment figures, and Canadian current account balance due today so I’ll be on my toes during those releases.

Also, with the NFP coming up this Friday, I’ll be holding on to this trade for a day only. While the NFP is definitely an exciting event to trade, I don’t think my trade can handle that kind of volatility. Besides, with the elections coming up, the U.S. jobs figures could be adjusted to paint a better picture of the labor market. Oops, that didn’t come from me!

Here’s my day trade idea:

Long USD/CAD at market (1.0280), stop at 1.0225, PT at 1.0350.
Long USD/CAD at 1.0260, stop at 1.0225, PT at 1.0350.

Do you think the trend line will hold? As always, I’d love to hear your thoughts so keep ‘em coming!

I’m following your trade ideas I think you are very professional My compliments

happypip

Aww, that’s so sweet! Thanks for the kind words and for checking out my entries See ya around!

Tonyro44

I really like your set, i think it will do fine, thanks.

happypip

Thanks for the kind words. Stay tuned for my trade update!

Kayvon77

Awesome setup. I’m still trying to wrap my head around why a worst than expected employment numbers and Chicago PMI is causing the rally on the USDCAD?

happypip

Weaker than expected data, especially those that cause traders to worry about the global economic performance, typically results in risk aversion. In this case, traders go for the safer and lower-yielding currencies such as the US dollar or the Japanese yen, and sell off the higher-yielding ones such as the commodity currencies. Even if the employment figures and Chicago PMI were from the US and could’ve been bearish for the US dollar from a fundamental perspective, the risk flows still favored the safe-haven US dollar.