Absent something totally unexpected, like a financial crisis that roils the world economy, it looks like the Federal Reserve will raise short term interest rates in Dec. Analysts expect a quarter percent increase, and bond markets have pretty much priced that amount into the yield on Treasury bonds.

That’s the backdrop for this week’s big economic events, specifically the jobs report on Fri and the European Central Bank meeting on Thurs. Markets expect another good jobs report, and I think only a contracting job market would sway the Fed to reconsider raising rates. Markets expect the ECB to announce additional measures to stimulate the European economies. I expect this will have little effect on US rates, but it’s interesting that the current policies of the ECB and the Fed are moving in opposite directions.

Mortgage rates could rise a little in the coming weeks as markets continue to react to expected Fed actions. However, markets soon will start looking beyond Dec’s rate hike, and future rate hikes depend on the growth prospects for the economy. Thus, it’s quite possible rates level off or even fall a little in the medium term unless economic data shows a new spark.

I’ve never considered myself much of a conspiracy nut, but the government’s latest data gathering plan has me concerned for my privacy. As part of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s crusade to discover housing discrimination (even where it doesn’t exist), it will start collecting far more intrusive data about every mortgage, including your income and credit score.

Do you really trust the government with your information? This is the same government that had data breaches at the Office of Personnel Management, the State Dept, the Defense Dept, the IRS, the Federal Reserve – the list goes on. Why in the world would I be comfortable with the CFPB holding this data?

What’s more, do you really trust the government to behave? Think the IRS might want to look the income you reported to your lender?

This seems to be a done deal at this point unless Congress steps in. Fortunately, the data collection doesn’t start until 2018, so we have a chance. However, if the rule doesn’t change, the only way to avoid the government collecting your sensitive information is to pay cash for your home.

In today’s housing market, you need to act quickly when you find a home you want. This can put you in a bind if you need to sell your existing home so you can afford a new one because if your existing home doesn’t sell first, your income would have to be sufficient to support both housing payments.

But a recent change in loan guidelines could help. If you have an executed contract for the sale of your existing home, we can exclude your current housing payment no matter when the sale will close. If the contract includes a financing contingency, we will need a loan approval from the other lender to satisfy the guideline, or the buyer can waive the contingency.

The same change applies if your employer is relocating you and has a relocation plan that covers your existing mortgages.

I expressed concern last week that the Federal Reserve would hint at a December rate hike after its Oct meeting. In the post-meeting statement, the Fed asked, “Are we clear?” The markets responded, “Crystal.”

The Fed didn’t just lob a shot across the bow. It went for shock and awe. It seems the Fed had decided to raise rates in Sep but got scared due to the Chinese stock market collapse. Now that the crisis has receded, the Fed seems determined that it will not waver again. What credibility it has left is on the line. I don’t think economic data will matter much over the next month. The Fed is going to raise short term interest rates, and markets are pricing in that probable reality.

For the near term, mortgage rates are off their recent lows and probably won’t test that range again anytime soon. Longer term, you have to remember mortgage rates are more sensitive to expectations for inflation and economic growth. Inflation remains almost non-existent, and world economies are slowing. If economic malaise returns to the US, mortgage rates could revisit all-time lows next year.