A couple years ago, I predicted that Sony would launch a new home video game console in 2010, with Nintendo and Microsoft to follow in 2011.

Man, I was way off.

With 2011 well underway, console makers aren’t even talking about a new generation of hardware. And in an interview with PC Watch, translated by Kotaku, Sony Computer Entertainment head Kaz Hirai said the Playstation 3 is “not even at the halfway point.”

“That’s why,” he added, “we’re not deliberating on a PS4 or a next generation machine, whatever you call it.”

The idea that Sony or other companies have no immediate desire to create new hardware might seem obvious now, but it wasn’t always that way. Video game systems used to refresh like clockwork on five- or six-year cycles, and within a couple years, the last generation of consoles was long forgotten. (One notable exception: the Playstation 2, which continues to be a viable platform in its 11th year).

Here’s what has changed:

Video game systems have turned into full-blown media hubs. The Xbox 360 has the Zune Marketplace, ESPN and Last.fm. The Playstation 3 has its own video store, plus Vudu, the National Hockey League and Major League Baseball. All three current-gen game consoles have Netflix. Console makers can simply tack on new media services to make their machines more desirable.

Sony and Microsoft, and to a lesser extent Nintendo, are building big ecosystems for downloadable games, and moving to new consoles would be really complicated. To that end, they’ve updated their consoles to allow bigger hard drives or external storage, so they can accommodate the boom in downloads.

In general, the need to update hardware isn’t as urgent as it once was. Dead Rising had no problem fitting dozens of zombies on the screen at once. Call of Duty: Black Ops hums along at 60 frames per second. The Playstation 3 gained 3D support through a firmware update. In the past, the goal of new technology was to better convey realism, but I don’t think current consoles are having problems with that now.

At this point, the only console maker who could really use a refresh is Nintendo, whose Wii is handily outperformed by the Xbox 360 and Playstation 3, and whose motion control now seems a bit stale. I’d make a prediction as to when we’ll see the so-called Wii HD, but would you even trust me?

26 Comments For This Post

I agree, add in the fact that MS has done enough correct to completely discard their stale Xbox image and Nintendo captured enough imagination to no longer be the runt of the litter it was the last 2 gens and we see ourselves on a very even playing field with no one taking an obvious lead.

The PS4 a dream? from the looks od developing hardware when 2006 came around that was the expectations in that medium. The things you had no knowledge of was what gave those dreams an early death, almost an abortion.

The only thing is game machines were no longer giving out free stuff, and then the FED's giving out kind of free homes killed the economy that these game machines lived in. Wonder what Game boxes will look like and be able to do in the 20 or 30 years when things recover. My guess control by the mind and display in the mind so the game box will be a pager sized device you clip on your belt. And you will play your games while waiting in line for your next handout.

Not sure how Sony could be behind Microsoft when they own the rights to the game and movie disc technology. Microsoft is gonna have to find a new way to deliver their games and movies are pay Sony to use Blue Ray. Either way, it puts Microsoft behind.

If Microsoft is behind why does the PS3 suck/fail at everything except being a decent blu ray player? Microsoft knows what its doing, sure it lost the HD DVD/Blu Ray wars(Im actually for Blu Ray), but with everything else its proving to be FAR more superior than Sony when it comes to their systems. You must not own a 360, everyone bashes on it until they own one. the Ps3 sucks man.

Uh, too many mistakes???? The 360 while not the simplest of consoles (as the wii takes the cake there) is still by far the cheapest made. I repair consoles and electronics for a living and the PS3 is a solid machine while the 360 is almost toy like. Sony are the ones who started this bread of gaming and I'm pretty sure that "their iron fisted grip on the video game industry" is long from over. I am not trashing either one as a matter of fact I own all of the video game consoles and have had no problems out of the wii or ps3 but have had numerous issues with the 360. I was under the impression that microsoft was in last place. If not why would Sony not do a major price drop for a new gen system like360 did?

Dude some people r barely buyin ps3s why would sony even think about ps4 or somethin else…sony is doin really good rite now dey should b tring to mak better updates and or games but not a new system dat hella stupid let da ps3 get old…i got da ps3 slim wen it came out n trust me i havent had enough of it at all.

Xbox360s and Playstation3s are both cheap machines, but at least Sony knows how to fix their mistakes. Updates and software patches were available for Playstation users, while their systems crashed. But Microsoft issued no update for their "Red Ring of Death" problem, the only repair being a $100 trip to a tech store. Nintendo did make a sturdy piece of machinery with no major repairs having to be done, but would you really want to play Call of Duty on that?

Still havent fixed PSN after they were hacked….. its a crap network anyway. But yeah your so right, Sony knows how to fix their mistakes, My dad's and my friend's PS3s smoking with a tiny little flame in the back….thats so much safer than the Ring of Death. You send both systems in, they both get fixed. The only reason Wii hasnt had any major problems is due to them practically playing it safe, with Sony and Microsoft pushing the boundaries of online/downloadable gaming and home Media (with Microsoft leading, of course).

My PS3 just sits there collecting Dust. Sad to say…PSN is a complete fail compared to LIVE. Those people who are defending the PS3 must not own a 360…. Believe me I was a HUGE Sony Enthusiast before, but after I purchased a 360….wow, PS3 is just a fail. But it makes one hell of a BluRay player :]

For all you people that are bashing the PS3… You need to get your facts straight before you sit there and bash on something. I have had a ps3 for years, the same one that came out the first day and its still going string. All I hear about the 360 is the Red Ring of Death which i have never seen on a ps3… EVER…and how after a year they just stop working. I have a handful of friends that have 360's…and all they do is collect dust in the closet because they are sick of repairing them. microsoft can suck a big on

I have an original ps3 as well… my sisters ex has bought so many x box consoles its not even funny… and I play way more than he does… but for some reason he is just like the other idiots that bash on the ps3… lol… seriously.. ps3 = better console:)

i have done work repairing electronics such as game consoles and computers….the ps3 is clearly the more powerful system, there is NO disputing that…the ps3 has a better processor, L2 cache, graphics processor, more memory (RAM), better system performance, bluetooth technology, etc. …..the list goes on, if you look at the machine itself there is absolutely no way xbox 360 can compete with ps3…i will say xbox has more exclusive games such as halo, but the ps3 clearly has higher capabilities and better technology

I think that the PS 4 will be coming out soon. There has been allot of news I have read all over the internet and this news has told me that the Sony PS4 could start production soon and be released in some time of 2012 this is one whole year away but I think that the news at http://sonyps4.com says that it will be released sooner then you think it will be. Read up on some of the news and let me know if you have any further thoughts about when the Sony playstation 4 is going to come out because I am into hearing new things about the SONY Playstation 4.

To the sony company they should not produse any other machine now because we are still on playstation 3 we should make money befor ps4 come out,I beg the company to tink befor they do, am from nigeria.

You are right ben, sony company should launch another device cause we are still on ps3. Hope so they should not go for it for some time. On the other hand for better development services it is good if they launch it.