Ireland's most dominant political party, Fianna Fáil, is on the road to a historic and devastating defeat in the republic's general election.

Just months after accepting an EU/IMF bailout, the government is likely to finish in fourth place behind a resurgent Labour party and a slew of independent candidates.

The scale of Fianna Fáil's losses is so great that a number of high-profile ministers, including finance minister Brian Lenihan, who negotiated the bailout, are in danger of losing their seats. His outgoing ministerial colleague Mary Hanafin also faces the possibility of being unseated in her Dún Laoghaire/Rathdown constituency.

Fine Gael is now poised to form a government, possibly even as a single party, its director of elections, Phil Hogan, told RTÉ Radio. "Anybody that writes [us] off so early in the day... I think they'll probably get a fright as the day wears on," he said. If the party fails to win an overall majority, however – which an exit poll from RTÉ suggested would be the outcome earlier in the day – it is likely to seek to form a coalition with the Irish Labour Party. Either way, Enda Kenny is certain to be elected Taoiseach.

According to RTÉ, Fine Gael took 36.1% of the vote, with Labour coming second with 20.5%. Fianna Fáil support is put at just 15.1%, by far its worst general election result, and will mean a massive loss of seats across the country – including a wipeout in the capital.

Sinn Féin's support is put at 10.1% – again a record in the Irish Republic – while the Greens are on 2.7%, which could see the party save some seats despite predictions they would be wiped out.

Independents and others got 15.5% of the vote – a high figure thought to be spread quite thinly given the number of candidates. Where those votes transfer could be crucial to the final outcome of counts across 43 constituencies.

The independents combined have pushed Fianna Fáil into fourth place – the party's worst performance since Éamon De Valera founded the party in the 1920s. In Dublin, Fianna Fáil support barely hit 8%.

The exit poll put support for Fine Gael lower than some opinion polls had suggested, where they had been tipped to secure as much as 40% of the popular vote, potentially allowing for a single-party government propped up by independents. The last RTÉ exit poll in 2007 proved to be 99% accurate when compared to the actual number of votes cast.