The Iranian Election: It’s the Economy, Stupid!

On May 19, Iranians will choose their next president and determine what direction the country will take. The race has become tighter now that Tehran’s conservative mayor Mohammad-Baghar Ghalibaf has withdrawn his candidacy and backed the hardliner cleric Ebrahim Raisi.

Raisi is the main competition for pragmatist Iranian President Hassan Rouhani in his reelection bid. From 1981 onward, every president of Iran has won a second term. Will Rouhani continue the trend?

Iranians will likely want to see a continuation of what has improved little by little during Rouhani’s four years in office. Rouhani initiated political and economic reforms that aimed at soothing international tensions with Iran.

The 2009 Green Movement changed the landscape of activism in Iran. In this spontaneous demonstration, over three million people took to the streets in June of that year to contest electoral irregularities linked to Ahmadinejad’s reelection.

What was actually happening was that grievances had shifted: the social justice demands and strong anti-imperialist opposition of 1979 revolutionaries were replaced by a demand for civil rights, social liberties and democracy. The movement’s main slogan was “where is my vote?”, and the pro-West attitude among youth was palpable.

The Green Movement’s legacy is the strong political consciousness of many young Iranians who are unlikely to give up their involvement in the public sphere, or their political socialisation and activism.

Occupying the public sphere in Iran.Stella Morgana

These groups have been challenging the status quo of national political apathy for at least the last four years. They have fought for private and public freedoms by adopting Western lifestyles, chatting in parks or hanging out in malls.

Some of them also want safer labour conditions. The miners’ protest on May 5 in Golestan, where dozens of workers lost their lives after a blast, highlighted the poor conditions of Iran’s working class, which had already faced delayed wages due to a stagnant economy.

1979-2009: a lost battle for workers?

But Iran’s working class has largely been missing in the sociopolitical changes of the last four years.

Workers’ played a critical role in the 1979 revolution, which overthrew the Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi to found the Islamic Republic of Iran. Once they joined the struggle, they were able to paralyse the state.

Scenes from the 1979 Iranian revolution (History Channel)

But 30 years later, they do not represent a distinct pressure group. As sociologist Kevan Harris noted in a February 2011 article in Time magazine, “At the height of the Iranian green movement uprising in the summer of 2009, young activists called for a general strike. The call went mostly unheeded by workers.”

At the time, president Ahmadinejad’s economic mismanagement had lead inflation to hit 18%, and inequality, discontent and protests were all rising. By the end of 2009, this growing precariousness had reduced workers’ freedom. Their bargaining power, already weakened over years, took another hit after his reelection and the June crackdown on the Green Movement.