Post-Tropical Cyclone MATTHEW Forecast Discussion (Text)

000
WTNT44 KNHC 092042
TCDAT4
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 47
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 PM EDT SUN OCT 09 2016
Dropsonde data from a NASA Global Hawk mission into Matthew today
indicate that the post-tropical cyclone has not weakened. The
observations continue to show a band of 60-65 kt winds to the
southwest and west of the center. Matthew is moving east-
northeastward at about 13 kt, and an east-northeastward motion
within the mid-latitude westerlies should continue through
tonight. Matthew is forecast by the global models to weaken and be
absorbed within a frontal boundary on Monday, and the NHC forecast
follows suit. It should be noted that a strong baroclinic low is
expected to develop along the same frontal boundary near Nova
Scotia on Monday.
Winds over the Outer Banks of North Carolina have gradually
diminished this afternoon, and the tropical storm warning has been
discontinued. Dangerously high water levels over portions of the
Outer Banks will gradually subside overnight and early Monday.
Based on these trends, this will be the last NHC advisory on
Matthew. For additional information on the elevated water levels in
the Outer Banks and the ongoing freshwater flooding in eastern North
Carolina, see products and warnings issued by your local National
Weather Service forecast office. Additional information on Matthew
can also be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01
KWBC.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/2100Z 35.4N 72.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 10/0600Z 36.4N 69.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 10/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT
$$
Forecaster Brown