So now it’s Rubio (and the establishment) dreaming of a brokered convention

posted at 12:41 pm on February 11, 2016 by Jazz Shaw

Ah, yes. The brokered convention. It’s the great white whale of political reporters and bloggers. We all love to talk about the possibility and all the thrills, spills and mayhem that could result from it. Of course, it hasn’t happened in the living memory of any Republicans reading this unless they happened to be around for the slugfest surrounding Thomas E. Dewey in the 1948 primary. (I know some reference the 1976 battle of Ford vs. Regan as a brokered convention, but honestly that was a lot more drama than rules busting I think. Your mileage may vary.) But as I’ve written here in the past, while still not the most likely scenario, there are signs that it’s at least possible this time around. We generally don’t hear much about it from the RNC or the establishment lane candidates, but that may be starting to change. Some folks on Marco Rubio’s team, currently in a bit more trouble than they expected after Iowa, are daring to utter the words. (ABC News)

The best hope of the Republican establishment just a week ago, Marco Rubio suddenly faces a path to his party’s presidential nomination that could require a brokered national convention.

That’s according to Rubio’s campaign manager, Terry Sullivan, who told The Associated Press that this week’s disappointing performance in New Hampshire will extend the Republican nomination fight for another three months, if not longer. It’s a worst-case scenario for Rubio and many Republican officials alike who hoped to avoid a prolonged and painful nomination fight in 2016.

“We very easily could be looking at May — or the convention,” Sullivan said aboard Rubio’s charter jet from New Hampshire to South Carolina on Wednesday. “I would be surprised if it’s not May or the convention.”

In the past, when we’ve heard talk of this it’s generally among supporters of Trump or, to a slightly lesser extent, Ted Cruz. Pretty much nobody among the party elders wants to see them get the nomination, and if either arrives in Cleveland with a lead less than the minimum 1,144 delegates needed to win on the first ballot, things could get ugly. After some horse trading among the power brokers, the remaining delegates could, in theory, line up behind somebody more palatable to the establishment a few ballots later and take the nomination away. As I’ve noted here previously, this would likely be the end of the party as we know it for a generation.

But the folks you don’t hear talking about it are the ones who would potentially benefit from it the most. For Rubio’s team to be suggesting it this early in the process is telling, at least as I read the cards. It’s something of an obtuse admission that we might not be able to win this thing honestly so we may have to steal it on a technicality.

Whether or not this is even a possibility all comes down to a question of timing. If you agree with the conventional wisdom regarding this primary season, here’s how it plays out. Either Trump, Cruz, or a combination of both suck up a bunch of delegates on a steady blitz through some time after Super Tuesday. This requires (according to this thinking) at least a couple of establishment lane candidates to stay in the race and split the old school vote. Since there are many winner take all states in the SEC primary, the outsiders could build up a significant, though not 51% lead. Then, when the establishment field finally narrows to one person, he starts running the table in the later states, stopping anyone from getting to 1,144.

But when does that break happen? If it’s too late into March or early April, a Trump / Cruz campaign might already hit the magic number or be able to pick up the needed stragglers in some late breaking apportioned delegate state. If one of them breaks out of the pack on Super Tuesday and snags several states, the outsider momentum could be stopped before they get near the finish line. This only works if the timing is just right. Of course, the other potentially flawed assumption is that an establishment lane candidate can win all the races once the rest of the field is winnowed down. Does that sound likely to anybody? Remember: just to take one Yuge example, New York doesn’t hold their GOP primary until April 19th and that’s 92 delegates. (Three others are floaters.) Do we honestly think that Cruz or either of the governors could beat Trump on his home turf if he comes in with a big head of momentum?

Honestly, I’m not buying it. Once we get past Nevada and get down to three or four serious candidates things might get a bit more boring fairly quickly.

Rubio in his ignominy, to all he ever met. The country has to be grateful to Chris Christie, eternally.

His Number One problem is the fact that he betrayed all he ever met.
He betrayed his friend, Jeb Bush, who supported him morally and sent him a check even, in his FL congressional and senatorial, state and federal endeavors.
He betrayed the TEA party, who worked avidly to make him Senator of FL, instantly, as soon as he saw the big columns in DC.
He betrayed legal Americans and America with his Gang of Eight.
He still betrays the two, above, when he speaks in Spanish to Jorge Ramos and tells 180 degrees different on amnesty, saying in Spanish that he’ll “keep president Obama’s amnesty deal”, but tells the viewers in English that he wouldn’t.
He betrayed all the FL residents by being absent from DC and not performing his senatorial duties, in pursuit of yet another position.
He never has staying power for more than a few months, after he wins any position.
The media all call him an “establishment insider candidate“. He ran for the senate as an outsider, in the TEA party, and was a total deceiver as soon as he hit DC.
He is, in simple words, Benedicto Arnold to all he ever met, depending on what his incredible political ambitions are.His second biggest problem is inexperience in the real world.
He has never produced or built anything. He was a lawyer for a very brief time. Other than that he has never even run a taco stand.

I really hope Trump gets overwhelming wins in the next several states and shuts these a$$holes up about a brokered convention. They act like he’s not even there and they are just competing amongst themselves. It’s about time they start to accept that Trump is the likely nominee.

MassConservative on February 11, 2016 at 12:43 PM

Trump is very much hated in the Hispanic community.

terryannonline

Jan. 20 2016

Donald Trump Is Now Leading Among Hispanic Republicans in Florida
And here’s the breakdown of just Hispanic Republicans:

Despite his controversial comments about Mexican immigrants, GOP frontrunner Donald Trump is the favorite among Latino Republicans, according to new polling results revealed to The Post.

Thirty eight percent favor Trump, followed by Cuban American Ted Cruz (15 percent), Jeb Bush (14 percent) and Cuban American Marco Rubio (8 percent), according to the national poll conducted by the Beck Research for the American Federation for Children.

Interesting the D’s are using super-delegates to possibly circumvent the process while there is talk of the R’s brokering the winner. From what I am learning the super-delegates are a dangerous non-democratic way to swing an election of which Obama used to his advantage and Hillary realized too late last time.

Amateurs. Brokered Convention is only the start imagine Bloomberg Sanders Hillary Trump and Jeb all pushing to the general election after brokered convention in (R) and stolen nomination in (D) means that we ultimately go to house election of president. All bets are off.

So now it’s Rubio (and the establishment) dreaming of a brokered convention

Candidates who dream of “party bosses” anointing them the winner to nullify the actual vote count should not be president. They clearly do not have what it takes to be the leader. Plus it is hard to call yourself the anti-establishment candidate when you are dreaming of the establishment saving you. That says you are Mr. Establishment.

If the GOP bosses are really conservative like they claim they would be pushing for Cruz. Yet they are not. If the GOP bosses are really interested in getting working American voters, etc., they would be pushing Trump. Yet they are not. Heck if they wanted a milk toast moderate they could have easily backed Christie before he left. Yet they did not.

The only conclusion is they want people they can control and do what the donors tell them to do. Cruz, Trump, and even Christie (despite all their political differences) are not exactly controllable. It has nothing to do with electability…they want beta men!

Look at the media hacks snipe at Rubio, just to do the establishments bidding to hold him back. Kasich is a stuttering, facial ticking rhino and Bush is a namby pamby who looks ready to cry at a drop of a hat. Yet They keep snarking away at Rubio, unlike their fawning over Trump who said the cat word that starts with a P and unlike their acceptance of Cruz dirty trick on Carson, telling his voters he left the race. The media are hacks!!!

I think he’s just trying to scare the GOPe to giving up on Bush and standing behind him. “Hey, if I don’t start winning pretty soon and we keep having a 5+ man race, this is going to a brokered convention you know!”

This. Trump may very well win, but he’ll have to do so by winning the requisite number of delegates. If he doesn’t have them before the convention, so be it.

Throat Wobbler Mangrove on February 11, 2016 at 1:20 PM

With everyone digging in, and not dropping out; I fully expect we are going to a brokered convention. This would be really bad for the GOP given that the superdelegates are already setting HRC up for an early win.

So now it’s Rubio (and the establishment) dreaming of a brokered convention

Marco needs to get one of those native-American dream catchers to put over his bet. Such fanciful ideas will have a place to hang out without getting out in public where they are ridiculed for the nonsense that they are.

“Brokered convention” — the last arrow in the “kill Trump” quiver. Poor panicked GOPe, they’d rather lose the White House than put the interests of the American people first.

That’s the reason Trump has to win this outright and decisively. Otherwise, the GOPe is perfectly content allowing Hillary to be POTUS, just as they’ve been content with Obama. Globalist agenda with a “D” is the same as the globalist agenda with an “R.”

I know her in real life..she is a close friend. Don’t be fooled..she’s vicious here but a sweet heart and funny as hell.

bazil9 on February 11, 2016 at 1:33 PM

nothing wrong with that. I have been accused of being vicious myself. Namely every time someone hears me ask my trolls ” is there any blood? any broken bones? did you break my furniture? no? then why are you bringing this problem to me? figure it out amongst yourselves, I won’t always be here to fight your battles for you. Grow a pair and deal with your brothers yourself”

I’ve been accused of being nuts and a bad mom over it, and yet my trolls all get straight A’s , and have never gotten into any trouble outside our home….

If we go to a brokered convention and the plurality winner isn’t picked (unless we have candidates virtually tied within a couple delegates or tied exactly), you can be sure it will be the end of the party.

Talk to some GOP types this morning.(After an earlier post on this, I thought I ask around.)Got the same answer, Bunch of old guard types looking to game the system. Chance of that happening, close to zero. This is coming from the D.C. crowd, K street, a couple of hack(leftist) journalists looking to gin up a story. Jazz is pretty spot on this. Is this about Trump, surprisingly no. The old guard fears Cruz, they would not be able to cut a deal with him, because he holds them in contempt. Trump, these guys think K street would have a grand old time. Rubio, the old guard thinks would be ‘malleable’. Frankly, this is spin coming from ‘lobbyists’. It junk, but it’s how they make their living.

You’re right about oil stocks. i went in too early, but it’s starting to look like “Bagdad” pricing out there now…

WestportSC on February 11, 2016 at 1:30 PM

I went long on USO when it was $12.60 thinking it had reached the bottom. It is now around $7.80. I’m biding my time to jump in with another $50K buy. I can wait several years for a good return. Saudi can’t keep it up forever, and I assume Iran will eventually be sanctioned again.

I have not seen any polls on New York, but unless Trump is taking upstate big time, he is no shoe-in for victory in NY. Cruz will take the relatively small religious conservative vote and a single middle of the road conservative candidate could win. This state offers GOP candidates like George Pataki (Peekskill), Rudy Giuliani, Nan Heyworth (a Fiorina supporter) and a few years back, VP candidate Jack Kemp. Those are not like Trump. In primaries, the moderate candidate for POTUS always wins.

A race with Mike Bloomberg, Bernie Sanders (before he went to Vermont), Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump who all come from the New York City environs really boggles the mind when you consider the dissing of “New York” values.