Kelley Williamshttp://northsidesun.com/taxonomy/term/195/0
enElections do have some consequenceshttp://northsidesun.com/opinion-columns/elections-do-have-some-consequences
<div class="field field-name-field-image field-type-image field-label-hidden"><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><img src="http://northsidesun.com/sites/northsidesun.com/files/styles/large/public/field/image/Kelley%20Williams--toned_26.jpg?itok=NQA_dKYy" width="576" height="360" alt="" /></div></div></div><div class="field field-name-body field-type-text-with-summary field-label-hidden"><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"> <p>More jobs. “We will eliminate the highly invasive ‘Waters of the U.S.’ rule, and scrap the $5 trillion dollar Obama-Clinton Climate Action Plan and the Clean Power Plan and prevent these unilateral plans from increasing monthly electric bills by double-digits without any measurable effect on Earth’s climate. Energy is the lifeblood of modern society. It is the industry that fuels all other industries. We will lift the restrictions on American energy, and allow this wealth to pour into our communities. It’s all upside: more jobs, more revenues, more wealth, higher wages, and lower energy prices.” Source: President-elect Trump’s greatagain.gov website.</p>
<p>It’s hard to believe that President Obama used the Department of Energy and the Environmental Protection Agency to raise the cost (and hence the price) of energy. The idea was that if you made fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas) more expensive, you would discourage their use. And if expensive green energy (solar, wind, biofuels, etc.) looked less expensive by comparison, its use would grow. Not to worry that expensive energy hurts the economy and people who have to buy it.</p>
<p>Eight dollars per gallon a good idea? It’s hard to believe that certified smart people said this is a good idea. Not to worry. But it’s true. Here’s what Nobel Laureate and Secretary of Energy said in a Wall Street Journal interview: “Somehow,” Chu said, “we have to figure out how to boost the price of gasoline to the levels in Europe.” Those levels were $8-9 per gallon at the time.</p>
<p>It’s no wonder the economy underperformed under Obama. It could have been worse. It would have been worse if fracking and horizontal drilling hadn’t come along and increased oil and natural gas supplies and lowered costs and prices - despite the best efforts of Obama and his DOE and EPA to shut it down.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>The President-elect has decided to pick some low hanging fruit: Change Obama’s destructive energy and environmental policies. That’s good news for the economy and for Mississippi.</p>
<p>The president-elect will have help from a Republican majority in the Senate - thanks in part to Roger Wicker’s efforts. Sen. Wicker headed the National Republican Senatorial Committee with the mission impossible of defending 24 seats. He helped save the majority. He also serves on some key committees. So he can help lift restrictions on American energy - and help stop the EPA’s power grab to regulate ponds, lakes, creeks, and streams.</p>
<p>Some good news and some bad news. More abundant and cheaper energy is good news for those who buy it. But the competitive threat of cheaper energy is bad news for those who make money producing or trying to produce expensive renewable energy - unless they are protected by regulations and mandates or are subsidized by grants and tax credits. That’s why there’s a booming business in buying and selling such protection. It’s called crony capitalism.</p>
<p>That’s probably why Tom Steyer, billionaire co-founder of Advanced Energy Economy, who reportedly gave $75 million to Democrats in this election cycle, wants to run their next campaign. He makes money producing or trying to produce expensive green energy.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>Monopolies make customers pay more. Some regulated electric utilities also make money producing expensive energy - or trying to. That’s because they have monopolies where prices are set by the Public Service Commission, not by free market competitive forces. And the pricing model rewards big investments, not cheap electricity. So if the PSC is not on its game, utilities like Mississippi Power and its parent Southern Company build expensive plants (experiments) like the Kemper County Lignite Plant and get a guaranteed return (profit) on its cost. And its customers pick up the tab.</p>
<p>The expensive plant was blessed by Secretary Chu and his successor Secretary Moniz who visited it in 2013 with the governor and other dignitaries. But it seems unlikely to be blessed by the president-elect’s secretary of energy.</p>
<p>A good question. And it appears increasingly unlikely to be blessed (deemed prudent) by the Public Service Commission, which finally seems to be wrestling with this question: Why should customers pay $7 billion for a plant that runs on lignite and produces less, but much more expensive electricity, than a plant that runs on natural gas and costs $700 million?</p>
<p>Yes, elections have consequences. Hopefully “... more jobs, more revenues, more wealth, higher wages, and lower energy prices.”</p>
<p>Kelley Williams, chair Bigger Pie Forum, November 11, 2016</p>
</div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-section field-type-taxonomy-term-reference field-label-hidden"><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><a href="/opinion"><span>Opinion</span></a></div><div class="field-item odd"><a href="/columns"><span>Columns</span></a></div></div></div><div class="field field-name-event-calendar-date field-type-datetime field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Date:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><span class="date-display-single">Friday, November 18, 2016 - 10:45</span></div></div></div>Fri, 18 Nov 2016 16:53:40 +0000wmccain3225 at http://northsidesun.comPriming a floodhttp://northsidesun.com/opinion-columns/priming-flood
<div class="field field-name-field-image field-type-image field-label-hidden"><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><img src="http://northsidesun.com/sites/northsidesun.com/files/styles/large/public/field/image/Kelley%20Williams--toned_25.jpg?itok=2QNpgxHx" width="576" height="360" alt="" /></div></div></div><div class="field field-name-body field-type-text-with-summary field-label-hidden"><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"> <p>To prime a pump, you give it some water from a bucket to get it started. To prime a flood next year, you give it some water from this year to get it started. If other things are equal, the more water you give it, the more likely a flood and the more severe. That's happening now. The Mississippi River has record water this year that could start a flood next year. It could be worse than 2011 or 2016. It could cause billions more damage to Mississippi's 1.2 million acres that flooded then.</p>
<p>Why Mississippi floods. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers tries to protect us from floods. That's its job. That's why it builds levees - more than 3,000 miles since 1928 when Congress put it in charge of floods. That's why it straightened and shortened the river by 151 miles with 16 cutoffs between Memphis and just south of Natchez. The idea was to speed the flow to the Gulf. It works. Except when the flow gets to the Gulf, it can't get out fast enough. So the river backs up and floods Mississippi.</p>
<p>When this happens, the river also tries to flood Baton Rouge and New Orleans. So the corps built emergency spillways to protect them: the Bonnet Carre' and the Morganza. They saved New Orleans and Baton Rouge in 2011. It was the first time both had been opened since 1973 when they saved the Old River Control Structure. But they didn't help Mississippi much. They were not designed to.</p>
<p>What could help. The Old River Control Structure could help Mississippi. Now. It's just south of the Mississippi line. It diverts 30 percent of the Mississippi River's flow down the Atchafalaya River to the Gulf at Morgan City. This route to the Gulf is much shorter and steeper than via New Orleans. So the water gets to the Gulf faster. The diversion lowers the level in the main channel of the river which is what floods Mississippi.</p>
<p>Some 1.2 million acres of Mississippi floods. High levees are part of the cause. The higher they are, the higher the floods and the greater the batture and backwater flooding. The batture is the land between the river and the levees or natural hills that bound it. There are about 600,000 acres of batture in Mississippi. The backwaters are the land along the Yazoo River and other tributaries that drain into the Mississippi when it's low. They don't drain when it's high though. There are about 600,000 acres of backwater flood land in Mississippi.</p>
<p>So what could reduce Mississippi's batture and backwater floods? It's simple: send more flow down the Atchafalaya at Old River. The corps controls this. It limits the flow to 30 percent because it thought it had to. It appears it misreads its orders. It is now running computer models to simulate the effects of increasing the flow to 40 percent and to 50 percent. Among other things it wants to see how much more flow Morgan City can handle.</p>
<p>You might ask why not just gradually increase the flow to actually see when Morgan City has a problem? It has plenty of freeboard now. The river and its flow are naturally low in the fall. Great time to run a real test.</p>
<p>What primes a flood? But the river is not low enough this fall to reduce the odds of a flood next year when the winter and spring rains come. In fact, the low stage this year was a record high. So the odds of a flood next year are also high.</p>
<p>How does this work? Let's look at 67 years of flood history starting in 1950 after the river had stabilized following the last cutoff in 1942. There is a strong correlation between the low water level or stage in the current year and the high water stage the following year. The low stage is a good predictor of coming floods. This makes sense. The lower the river in the fall, the more water it takes to cause a flood the following winter and spring. The higher the river, the less it takes. A high river in the fall primes a flood.</p>
<p>Records show that when the low water stage was below 10 feet at Natchez, floods occurred the following year about 14 percent of the time. When the low stage was above 10 feet, floods occurred the following year about 63 percent of the time. So floods occurred over four times more often when the low stage was above 10 feet than when it was below 10 feet.</p>
<p>The low stage this year was 25.9 feet on October 8. It has been above 20 feet only twice in 67 years. It was 22.3 feet in 1993. That was followed by floods six years in a row. It was 20.7 feet in 2009. That primed the river for a flood in 2010 followed by the all-time record high 2011 flood.</p>
<p>The low stages started to rise in 1972. Floods increased. Previously the low stage had been above 10 feet (10.1 feet) only once in 23 years. But it jumped to 13 feet in 1972. The following year the great flood of 1973 occurred. The Mississippi River almost overwhelmed the Old River Control Structure and changed course to take the Atchafalaya route to the Gulf. It was a near thing. The Bonnet Carre' and the Morganza were opened to save it.</p>
<p>From 1972 through 2016 (to date) the low stage was above 10 feet 29 times. It flooded 66 percent of the time the next year, and there were nine major floods (six feet above flood stage).</p>
<p>Time's running out. The river is primed for another major flood. It has a record 16-foot head start. But there is still time to reduce this - and the odds of a major flood. How?</p>
<p>Send more water down the Atchafalaya now. Please.</p>
<p>Kelley Williams, chair Bigger Pie Forum, October 14, 2016</p>
</div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-section field-type-taxonomy-term-reference field-label-hidden"><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><a href="/opinion"><span>Opinion</span></a></div><div class="field-item odd"><a href="/columns"><span>Columns</span></a></div></div></div><div class="field field-name-event-calendar-date field-type-datetime field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Date:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><span class="date-display-single">Thursday, October 20, 2016 - 15:15</span></div></div></div>Thu, 20 Oct 2016 20:13:05 +0000wmccain3056 at http://northsidesun.comReality finally catching up with Kemperhttp://northsidesun.com/opinion-columns/reality-finally-catching-kemper
<div class="field field-name-field-image field-type-image field-label-hidden"><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><img src="http://northsidesun.com/sites/northsidesun.com/files/styles/large/public/field/image/Kelley%20Williams--toned_24.jpg?itok=zCbQYXHR" width="576" height="360" alt="" /></div></div></div><div class="field field-name-body field-type-text-with-summary field-label-hidden"><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"> <p>Obamacare and Mississippi Power's Kemper County Lignite Plant are a lot alike. Both are big expensive over-hyped complicated unworkable government experiments. Both are destructive. The Chicago Tribune (an unlikely critic) recently wrote this about Obamacare: "... it flunked Economics 101 and Human Nature 101." It explains why and concludes with: "The next president and Congress either reckon with Obamacare's failures or ... wait for the thud."</p>
<p>Mississippi's Public Service Commission can either reckon with Kemper's failures now or wait for the thud. It's waiting for the thud. It said as much at an "open mic" hearing in Meridian last Tuesday. Specifically, it said it's in a holding pattern. It's waiting for Mississippi Power to get the plant's gasifier fully operational and submit a request for a rate increase. Don't hold your breath.</p>
<p>Dithering. It's too embarrassing and painful for the PSC to acknowledge and deal with Kemper's obvious failures, which it facilitated. So it dithers. Meantime, it's painful for customers. That's because customers are paying a 15 percent rate increase the PSC approved last November for part of Kemper cost.</p>
<p>The PSC's job is to regulate public utility monopolies. Its authority comes from the Legislature. It can authorize capacity additions and rate increases to pay for them if they prove to be prudent. It is supposed to see that customers get reliable affordable electricity and that companies supplying electricity get a reasonable return on their (prudent) investments.</p>
<p>It has failed Mississippi Power's customers. Their rates were the highest in the state even before the pre-emptive 15 percent increase. The increase was for the $800 million cost of Kemper's turbines and some extras. They have been running on natural gas. They are just part of the plant and a fraction of the cost of the rest of Kemper which is now over $6 billion. That's the thud that's coming.</p>
<p>The PSC has tied itself in a regulatory knot. It has said the turbines are conditionally prudent (i.e., used and useful or economical) pending the determination that the rest of the plant is prudent too. The rest of the plant is the experimental gasifier that is supposed to partially burn lignite to make a synthesis gas substitute for natural gas.</p>
<p>The CEO of the Southern Company, Mississippi Power's owner, has been promising that the gasifier will be operational "next month" for over two years. He and President Obama are a lot alike. They make promises they can't keep. You can't trust them. The president is beginning to worry about his legacy. It's dawning on him that reality is catching up with hype.</p>
<p>Reality intrudes. Reality is beginning to catch up with the CEO's hype too. And it's beginning to dawn on the PSC that the gasifier is probably not going to operate - for years - if ever. And even if it does, it's not going to be useful because it's not going to be economical because its synthesis gas will cost much more than natural gas. </p>
<p>The PSC has a dilemma. It knows it should holler calf rope and put the gasifier out of its misery. And put customers out of theirs. And quit pretending that something is going to happen to justify customer's paying for part of the gasifier and overpaying for the turbines. But the PSC doesn't know how to get out of the regulatory thicket it's in due to its own feckless decisions. So it dithers.</p>
<p>Its "open mic" hearings are a way to dither and make it look like it's doing something. And maybe find a way to cut the regulatory knot. It has two more hearings planned. It is asking the public to weigh in with comments and questions about Kemper.</p>
<p>Pay more for less? It got some good ones last week in Meridian. Bigger Pie's Charles Grayson noted that Southern's CEO told analysts that Kemper's turbines produced a third of Mississippi Power's electricity in 2015 running on natural gas. That's about 20 percent more power than the gasifier can produce if it operates. Then he asked: How will the PSC explain to customers a big cost increase for less power if it approves the gasifier?</p>
<p>Commissioner Presley said ... Errr, you have to consider reliability. (The old dual fuel argument.) Does that mean he thinks the experimental Rube Goldberg gasifier will be a more reliable source of gas to run the turbines than thousands of natural gas wells? Let's hope not.</p>
<p>Watchdog's Steve Wilson asked: Can Kemper vent CO2 to the atmosphere if it can't sell it? It was supposed to sell CO2 to Denbury Resources to inject in old oil fields to stimulate production (enhanced recovery). But oil prices are down and Denbury is in dire financial straits. It's an iffy buyer. Other buyers are not waiting in line.</p>
<p>The whole point of Kemper's experimental clean coal technology was to reduce CO2 emissions by storing it under ground. That's the reason it got millions in federal grants and tax credits. Kaput! The revenues from CO2 were also supposed to offset some of Kemper's cost. Kaput!</p>
<p>Commissioner Brown said that Kemper cannot vent the CO2 to the atmosphere. If Denbury doesn't take the CO2, Mississippi Power must find someone else. The PSC certified Kemper for construction assuming there would be CO2 revenues. If there aren't any or if they are less than promised, could the PSC decide the gasifier is not prudent? A way to cut the knot?</p>
<p>Despite the CEO's hype, odds are not good that the gasifier will be deemed prudent. It may take years for this to play out. Why should customers pay more in the meantime?</p>
<p>Flunks. Kemper flunks Economics 101. The PSC flunks Human Nature 101. Customers don't want to pay more to make environmentalists happy - or to pay for the PSC's and Mississippi Power's mistakes. They shouldn't have to.</p>
<p>Kelley Williams, chair, Bigger Pie Forum, September 25, 2016</p>
</div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-section field-type-taxonomy-term-reference field-label-hidden"><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><a href="/opinion"><span>Opinion</span></a></div><div class="field-item odd"><a href="/columns"><span>Columns</span></a></div></div></div><div class="field field-name-event-calendar-date field-type-datetime field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Date:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><span class="date-display-single">Monday, October 3, 2016 - 09:45</span></div></div></div>Mon, 03 Oct 2016 14:41:21 +0000wmccain2968 at http://northsidesun.comA flood canaryhttp://northsidesun.com/opinion-columns/flood-canary
<div class="field field-name-field-image field-type-image field-label-hidden"><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><img src="http://northsidesun.com/sites/northsidesun.com/files/styles/large/public/field/image/Kelley%20Williams--toned_23.jpg?itok=WVBc0QPt" width="576" height="360" alt="" /></div></div></div><div class="field field-name-body field-type-text-with-summary field-label-hidden"><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"> <p>The Mississippi River Commission held a public hearing in Natchez last Wednesday aboard the Motor Vessel MISSISSIPPI. It got an earful. Many witnesses testified about damage to their properties and businesses and lives from annual flooding and frequent major floods. Most live and work in the Natchez reach - the 60 miles from Natchez to Old River just south of the Louisiana line. It's the lowest stretch of the river that receives the full flow before it splits at Old River. It's ground zero for flooding and a leading indicator for Mississippi River floods. It's a flood canary.</p>
<p>Early coal miners took a canary underground to warn them about poisonous gases. A sick canary signaled a looming disaster. Mississippi's floods signal looming disasters. But there's time for the Mississippi River Commission and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to act before there's a catastrophic levee failure. It's time for our congressional and state leaders to encourage that action. Louisiana's too.</p>
<p>What's causing the flooding? It's not more rain. The annual rainfall trend line in the Mississippi River Drainage Basin has increased only four inches in 65 years. It has been virtually flat the last 40 years. But the rain that does fall gets to the mouth of the Mississippi faster than it can get out to the Gulf. It runs off into the river and its tributaries faster due to residential and commercial developments that shed water faster than forests and farmland. And it gets downriver faster because the corps straightened and shortened the river 150 miles with 16 cutoffs between Memphis and Old River. But the corps did not add an additional passage to the Gulf as needed to handle the faster flow. It funneled the faster flow into a bottleneck.</p>
<p>The bottom of the funnel is between Natchez and Old River. It has silted in over time. As a result the low stage trend line of the river is 10 feet higher at Natchez than it was in 1950. This means floods have a 10 foot head start. They are higher than they otherwise would be - not just at Natchez but up and down the river. They are also higher because the corps has built more and higher levees.</p>
<p>As predicted, the flow increased and the stages (water level) fell above the cutoffs. And as was also predicted the flow decreased and the stages rose below the cutoffs because the faster flow had nowhere to go. It took time for this to happen. About 50 years. The corps made the last cutoff in 1942. The low water (batture) floods began to be more frequent and longer about 20 years ago. They are now annual events that last for months.</p>
<p>The most effective testimony at the hearing was the shortest. It was a tirade by a somewhat disheveled older gentleman. The road to his place has been under water for months. He glared at the commission and yelled: "I just wanna' go home. I can't. It's your fault." The presiding general politely thanked him for his "passion."</p>
<p>In addition to the annual floods, there have been two recent major floods. The 2011 flood at Natchez was five feet higher than the great 1927 flood. (Higher levees mean higher floods.) It flooded 1.2 million acres in Mississippi - although no levees failed. The 2016 flood was the highest December flood ever. Total estimated 2011-2016 flood damage in Mississippi is more than $3 billion.</p>
<p>A sick canary? Both floods were one in a hundred year events. The odds of two such events within five years are less than one in a thousand. Just chance? Maybe. But maybe a dying canary. Levees at New Orleans and Baton Rouge were just inches above disaster in 2011.</p>
<p>So what can be done? Let more flow out to the Gulf. How? Where? The flow splits at Old River which diverts some of it to the Atchafalaya River and thence to the Gulf at Morgan City. It's the bottleneck. For 60 years the split has been 70 percent down the main channel to New Orleans and 30 percent down the Atchafalaya. It is 193 miles shorter and steeper. It can handle more flow. It seems to be the most viable alternative to the needed new passage that wasn't built.</p>
<p>Who can change the split? Legend has it that the 70-30 split was authorized by Congress and must be changed by Congress. But the legislative language is not specific about the split. The intent seems to be that Congress wanted the flows and sediments in the main channel and in the Atchafalaya to be in desirable proportions. That seems to have morphed into a hard 70-30 split. The proportion of the flows and sediments now after 60 years are clearly not desirable as flood events are demonstrating. It appears the corps can change the split to send more flow down the Atchafalaya, but probably won't without a nudge from Congress.</p>
<p>What are the pros and cons of more flow down the Atchafalaya? More flow will increase the total discharge - it will speed the water to the sea. This will lower stages in the main channel and reduce the height and the duration of floods up and down the river. It will reduce batture and backwater floods in Mississippi and the risk of levee failures at Baton Rouge and New Orleans. It will send more flow and sediments down the Atchafalaya and reduce wetlands loss there. However, greater flow will increase risk of flooding at Morgan City.</p>
<p>Politics. The engineering answer seems simple. The politics are not. Mississippi benefits as do states up river. Baton Rouge and New Orleans benefit, but Morgan City may suffer. Secretary of State Delbert Hosemann presented Mississippi's case at the hearing. Staffers for Sen. Wicker and Rep. Harper attended. We have briefed our congressional delegation. They understand and are supportive.</p>
<p>If you have a flooding problem, speak up. See biggerpieforum.org for more information.</p>
<p>Kelley Williams, chair Bigger Pie Forum, August 18, 2016</p>
</div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-section field-type-taxonomy-term-reference field-label-hidden"><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><a href="/opinion"><span>Opinion</span></a></div><div class="field-item odd"><a href="/columns"><span>Columns</span></a></div></div></div><div class="field field-name-event-calendar-date field-type-datetime field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Date:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><span class="date-display-single">Wednesday, August 24, 2016 - 11:00</span></div></div></div>Wed, 24 Aug 2016 16:05:50 +0000wmccain2824 at http://northsidesun.comAn 80-yard field goalhttp://northsidesun.com/opinion-columns/80-yard-field-goal
<div class="field field-name-field-image field-type-image field-label-hidden"><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><img src="http://northsidesun.com/sites/northsidesun.com/files/styles/large/public/field/image/Kelley%20Williams--toned_22.jpg?itok=df_B0kGA" width="418" height="314" alt="" /></div></div></div><div class="field field-name-body field-type-text-with-summary field-label-hidden"><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"> <p>Surprise! Southern Company announced a $43 million cost increase for the Kemper Lignite plant its Mississippi Power sub is building. And another startup delay of its experimental gasifier that's supposed to convert lignite into a syngas substitute for natural gas. Actually Southern's subsidiary Southern Services is building the plant. Or trying. Its cost is now up to $6.8 billion. That's more than 12 times the cost of a natural gas plant with the same capacity. It's a disaster and an embarrassment. Like your college football team getting the dog beat out of it.</p>
<p>But nobody forced Southern to try to build the plant. Hey, if your team schedules the Packers or the Patriots, expect a disaster.</p>
<p>It's a bigger disaster for the company's customers if they pay for any more of the experiment than they already have. But then they had no choice. The Mississippi Public Service Commissioners forced them. They blessed the disaster.</p>
<p>The latest Kemper cost increase and schedule delay is really no surprise. It's just more of the same. The company has been consistently wrong. It has also been consistent in its lies and misrepresentations. Here are a couple of examples.</p>
<p>A major milestone? Last year the company announced a major project milestone: "First Fire." The announcement implied that the gasifier reactor had been fired or heated to operating conditions for the first time - a major step toward project completion. The actual event was something less: lighting the pilot on a reactor startup burner. The deception began earlier and fooled at least one financial analyst in a July 30, 2014 earnings conference call. He asked if first fire and gasifier heat up were the same thing. The CFO said they are. They aren't. First fire was a minor event. Gasifier heat up is a major milestone. But heat up didn't occur until this year. A year late. It looks like a deliberate deception.</p>
<p>The whistle blower the company is trying to discredit and destroy has documented many more deceptions. His name is Brett Wingo. He was project manager for engineering and procurement for the gasifier. In that role he managed the successful response to a serious refractory problem in 2012. It threatened the project schedule and safety. The refractory insulates the reactor's metal shell from the 1800 F burning lignite and corrosive toxic gases under high pressure. If the refractory fails, the metal shell could melt with catastrophic consequences.</p>
<p>He received a "Southern Excellence Award" and bonuses for his good work and more responsibility: project manager over startup schedule.</p>
<p>No good deed goes unpunished. He took his new responsibility seriously. Too seriously. He recognized that the 2014 commercial operation target date was unrealistic, unachievable and unsafe. He thought his superiors would like to know and make appropriate adjustments. He was wrong. They didn't. So he went directly to Southern's CEO. Seems he already knew. Bad career move for Wingo. He was sidelined, muzzled, put on ice, fired, and blackballed. OSHA has ruled the firing unjustified and illegal. But it hasn't found Wingo a job.</p>
<p>These events were reported in detail in a recent two-page spread in the New York Times. I have read the details and have talked with Wingo. For what it's worth, I think he's credible. I don't think the company is.</p>
<p>Subsequent events have proved Wingo right. It's 2016. Still no commercial operation. Gasifier startup has slipped another month - at least. The company needs some good news. So it makes it up.</p>
<p>Another milestone? It recently announced first syngas production - a major milestone indicating that startup is imminent. However, the company provided few details. Did the troubled lignite feed system work? What was the fuel source? Length of the run? Quantity and quality of syngas? Reactor performance? And so on. But the company did provide a long list of disclaimers about the announcement. It essentially said: you can't believe or hold the company responsible for anything it says. Maybe the company doesn't believe its announcements either.</p>
<p>This looks like another exaggeration to set the stage for a bigger exaggeration and condition the PSC commissioners to bless it. Odds are the gasifier will never run consistently and reliably. Or produce syngas economically to compete with natural gas. It may not run at all given the company's construction disasters. It may explode.</p>
<p>More lipstick. But if the company can rig a gasifier test run and claim success like it has with first fire and initial syngas production, it may convince the PSC that the gasifier is a prudent back up for natural gas. Hence, the company's "dual fuel" campaign. And its touting of Kemper's turbines running on natural gas as a good deal for customers - even though they cost twice as much as an off-the-shelf plant. The company is trying to put enough lipstick on the pig for the PSC to kiss it.</p>
<p>The company is desperate. It's like a football team that's getting beat a hundred to nothing, with no first down, minus yardage, and 10 seconds left. So it tries an 80-yard field goal. The kick goes five yards. The coach asks the refs (the PSC) to call the game a tie because the kick wasn't blocked and the ball wasn't centered over the kicker's head.</p>
<p>A tie means customers will pay half the gasifier's cost or $3 billion or so. Don't be surprised if at least one of the PSC commissioners votes to split the gasifier cost baby. That's easier than dealing with the "awful task" of a Mississippi Power bankruptcy.</p>
<p>Easier for the PSC that is, not customers.</p>
<p>Kelley Williams, chair Bigger Pie Forum, August 12, 2016</p>
</div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-section field-type-taxonomy-term-reference field-label-hidden"><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><a href="/opinion"><span>Opinion</span></a></div><div class="field-item odd"><a href="/columns"><span>Columns</span></a></div></div></div><div class="field field-name-event-calendar-date field-type-datetime field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Date:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><span class="date-display-single">Monday, August 22, 2016 - 10:30</span></div></div></div>Mon, 22 Aug 2016 15:35:33 +0000wmccain2806 at http://northsidesun.comObama, Kemper, Haley, and Mabushttp://northsidesun.com/opinion-columns/obama-kemper-haley-and-mabus
<div class="field field-name-field-image field-type-image field-label-hidden"><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><img src="http://northsidesun.com/sites/northsidesun.com/files/styles/large/public/field/image/Kelley%20Williams--toned_21.jpg?itok=cdwjT5Xk" width="418" height="314" alt="" /></div></div></div><div class="field field-name-body field-type-text-with-summary field-label-hidden"><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"> <p>President Obama’s model for ‘Clean Coal’ has gone awry according to the New York Times. That’s Mississippi Power’s Kemper County Lignite Plant. We’ve been writing about this boondoggle for years. The NYT weighed in this week with a two page spread. Bigger Pie provided some information, which was acknowledged. And our Charles Grayson was quoted. We were relieved that the article did not reflexively trash Mississippi. However, it did give former Gov. Haley Barbour well deserved credit for promoting Kemper.</p>
<p>All the skeletons in the closet.</p>
<p>The reporter’s meticulous research provides useful details and documentation, including 200 hours of (legally) taped conversations by a project engineer-turned whistleblower. The Southern Company, parent of Mississippi Power, dismisses the engineer’s allegations (see The Old Quarterback’s Resume in Bigger Pie’s archives) as taken out of context to support a preconceived story line. Southern fired him because he “wouldn’t support the chain of command.” Translation: he wouldn’t lie to cover up the problems. OSHA said the company’s action violated whistleblower protections. So the Old Quarterback may be in for a big payday. (Will ratepayers actually pay him?)</p>
<p>The interactive time line of the digital version of the article is an information trove. It may provide some easy pickings for other current and prospective litigants. So may the Security and Exchange Commission’s investigation of the company for false and misleading statements. The article discloses that Southern’s legal department alerted employees about the investigation last December with a “don’t destroy e-mails” admonition. However, shareholders were not informed until this May. How’s that for timely disclosure?</p>
<p>In the dark. So it’s not just Mississippi’s public service commissioners that Southern keeps in the dark. Not that the commissioners are curious. Their gullibility has led to hundreds of millions in rate increases to pay for the company’s mistakes. The article and time line exposes the company’s costly deceptions in excruciating detail. But the PSC chairman, who was once skeptical about the project, now worries about the “awful task” of not pushing Mississippi Power into bankruptcy.</p>
<p>What’s awful about bankruptcy? The sky won’t fall. Bankruptcy is a way to clean up the mess and move on. Why does the company deserve to keep its service monopoly anyway? Why not award it to a competitor or competitors who will put customers first for once? Where’s the PSC’s concern for the company’s customers who are paying the highest electric rates in the state?</p>
<p>A short version.</p>
<p>The reporter identifies many of Kemper’s problems and their causes. It’s a long read. Here’s the short version. The problems started with federal programs and money to reduce carbon dioxide emissions to fight “global warming.” The company wanted to use the money to develop an experimental technology it would own and could sell. The governor wanted to help the company build the plant to create construction jobs. The Legislature and a majority of the PSC wanted to do what the governor wanted. The federal money had a short fuse. It had to be spent sooner than the plant could be designed and built - carefully and safely. Haste makes waste. The company lied about it.</p>
<p>Party time.</p>
<p>Nobody seemed concerned about the cost of the plant or its high-cost electricity or its effect on customers and permanent everyday jobs. Wait, that’s not true. The contractors, union construction workers, vendors, and so on were concerned about the cost of the plant. The more it cost, the more jobs and business to go around while it was being built. And the more it cost, the bigger the company’s investment and its guaranteed return. Hey, it was party time.</p>
<p>Now it’s pay-the-piper time. The plant cost will soon be $7 billion. A simpler workable off-the-shelf natural gas plant could have been built for less than 10 percent of that. So the excess cost is about $6.5 billion. Who pays it? The company or customers? The company says it had a (secret) deal with the PSC, which agreed for customers to pay some $3-4 billion depending on the extras in the fine print. So basically the company offers to split the difference.</p>
<p>PSC paralyzed.</p>
<p>The Mississippi Supreme Court says a secret deal is not a deal. Even so, the PSC says it’s still our fault because we didn’t stop the company from lying to us and destroying itself. Besides if we hold the company responsible for its mistakes, the sky will fall. The politicians say if we make the company pay up, nobody else will want to do business in Mississippi because they won’t think we are pushovers. And won’t trust Boss Hogg to fix things so they stay fixed. No more Kiors or Costcos or Continental Tires.</p>
<p>A new PSC commissioner recently said we can’t do anything until the company makes another filing. So does the company get a pass on past lies and deceptions despite the recent NYT detailed revelations and the ongoing SEC investigation and the private lawsuits against the company for fraud? Would it be asking too much for the PSC to bestir itself and call the project manager-turned whistleblower as a witness to testify from firsthand knowledge about Kemper’s deceptions, problems, cost overruns, and possible safety issues? Would it be asking too much for the PSC to launch its own investigation? Or to review past rate increases in view of the company’s incredible shrinking credibility?</p>
<p>Be not to worry. If you are dismayed that Kemper is losing the fight against global warming, take heart. Mississippi’s own former Gov. Ray Mabus has taken up arms. In his role as Obama’s Secretary of the Navy, he holds base commanders responsible for how well they communicate the risks of climate change, says an admiring Rhode Island Democrat Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse. Our sailors can’t deal with an Iranian gun boat. But they can recite the global warming Koran.</p>
<p>The country is in the very best of hands.</p>
<p>Kelley Williams, chair Bigger Pie Forum, July 9, 2016</p>
</div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-section field-type-taxonomy-term-reference field-label-hidden"><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><a href="/opinion"><span>Opinion</span></a></div><div class="field-item odd"><a href="/columns"><span>Columns</span></a></div></div></div><div class="field field-name-event-calendar-date field-type-datetime field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Date:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><span class="date-display-single">Friday, July 15, 2016 - 10:15</span></div></div></div>Fri, 15 Jul 2016 15:19:45 +0000wmccain2663 at http://northsidesun.comTrump, Kemper, Mississippi floodshttp://northsidesun.com/opinion-columns/trump-kemper-mississippi-floods
<div class="field field-name-field-image field-type-image field-label-hidden"><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><img src="http://northsidesun.com/sites/northsidesun.com/files/styles/large/public/field/image/Kelley%20Williams--toned_20.jpg?itok=H-qDns67" width="418" height="314" alt="" /></div></div></div><div class="field field-name-body field-type-text-with-summary field-label-hidden"><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"> <p>What do Donald Trump, the Kemper County Lignite Plant, and Mississippi River floods have in common? The Overton Window explains all three. Yeh, sure. What's the Overton Window? It's a nerdy way of saying people believe what appears obvious until it's no longer obvious. It used to take longer for public opinion to change. But the rise in independent Internet views and the dying monopolies of newspapers and TV networks have shortened the process. Now when change begins, it can snowball in a hurry. That's called a preference cascade.</p>
<p>Radical to popular. Joe Overton, now deceased, was a think tank public policy wonk. His concept describes how political ideas evolve step by step from unthinkable to radical to acceptable to sensible to popular to policy. This correlates with changes in public opinion (i.e. conventional wisdom) which evolves in a similar fashion.</p>
<p>The Donald is a warp speed example of change. He has destroyed the Overton Window that once framed presidential elections. He has gone from a reality show candidate joke to presumptive Republican nominee. He has labeled one character-challenged Democratic candidate a crook. The other candidate has self-labeled himself a crazy socialist joke. The Donald has also made some big time Republicans ill and irrelevant. (Some say they made themselves irrelevant.)</p>
<p>Extreme? Some say The Donald takes Muhammad Ali's "I'm the greatest" to gross extremes. But, heh, it worked for Ali - who wasn't universally admired either. And as Mississippi's own Dizzy Dean said: "It ain't bragging if you can do it." It remains to be seen if The Donald can do it. But he has probably forever changed the Overton Window for presidential elections.</p>
<p>The Overton Window for electric utilities in Mississippi used to be framed with trust and respect for the companies. They had public good will from decades of community service from legions of dedicated employees. They restored power after ice storms and hurricanes. They appeared to have the customers' interests at heart. They had the benefit of the doubt from public service commissioners who usually dutifully approved rate increases. One commissioner ruefully said of the company's misrepresentations about Kemper: "They never lied to us before." They had the Legislature on a leash. They had a governor as cheerleader who spent his credibility and political capital on Kemper - until it ran out. They had the usual economic development suspects touting the plant and its higher rates as good for jobs.</p>
<p>Mississippi Power self destructs. But Kemper has changed the Overton Window for Mississippi Power - and probably other companies too by association. The soon to be $7 billion plant is an experiment too far. It was a tough sale from the start. It took some really clever spin and sleight of hand to make what was supposed to be a $2 billion lignite experiment seem better for customers than a $500 million off-the-shelf natural gas plant. It was supposed to be cheaper in the 40-year long run if natural gas supplies dried up and prices went to the sky. It's "fuel diversification" was supposed to reduce natural gas cost and supply risk although it can't run without natural gas. It was supposed to boost Mississippi's enhanced oil recovery by supplying byproduct carbon dioxide - although there's plenty of naturally occurring carbon dioxide available from the Jackson Dome.</p>
<p>And, oh yes, it was supposed to run too - two years ago. But the endless construction delays, cost overruns, and misrepresentations that keep surfacing have taken a toll. So have the company's efforts to avoid disclosure (with it seems an assist from the PSC). The company says not to worry, customers won't pay a dime more for it than the $2.8 or $3.2 or $4.1 billion "cap." That's the cap that keeps growing that resulted from a secret meeting. The Mississippi Supreme Court said the meeting was illegal. Customers wonder why they should pay a dime more than the $500 million cost of a natural gas plant. The PSC said they should pay $800 million for Kemper's turbines running on natural gas and increased rates accordingly. Oh, by the way, Mississippi Power's rates were already the highest in the state.</p>
<p>Respected Corps. And then there's the Overton Window for the storied U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and its projects on the Mississippi River. It's now framed with respect and appreciation. Congress put the corps in charge of the river after the great flood of 1927 with the charge: Don't let it happen again. It hasn't. Some close calls in 1973, and 2011, and 2016. But no catastrophes. And some tradeoffs in 2011 when the levee at Birds Point, Mo., was blown to keep Cairo, Ill., from flooding and when the Morganza Spillway was opened to protect Baton Rouge.</p>
<p>The corps' projects include higher levees, reservoirs, emergency spillways, and cutoffs to straighten and shorten the river. An additional outlet to the Gulf near Morgan City was considered to speed the faster and greater flow from the straighter, shorter river. This additional capacity was never added. It seems to be needed now.</p>
<p>The river is backing up in Mississippi because it can't get out to the Gulf. The land between the river and the levees and the hills south of Vicksburg (where there are no levees) now floods more frequently and longer. So does the land along the Yazoo and other tributaries because it can't drain into the river.</p>
<p>Ominous portent. This annual flooding is not a catastrophe like a levee break. But it may portend one. The trend line at Natchez since 1950 is about 10 feet higher at low stage now. So it takes less flow to flood low lying land and to reach flood stage. There have been two 100-year floods in the last five years. New Orleans narrowly escaped both.</p>
<p>When there is a catastrophic levee failure due to limited discharge to the Gulf, the corps' respected Overton Window may be a casualty.</p>
<p>Kelley Williams, chair Bigger Pie Forum, June 16, 2016.</p>
</div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-section field-type-taxonomy-term-reference field-label-hidden"><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><a href="/opinion"><span>Opinion</span></a></div><div class="field-item odd"><a href="/columns"><span>Columns</span></a></div></div></div><div class="field field-name-event-calendar-date field-type-datetime field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Date:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><span class="date-display-single">Tuesday, June 21, 2016 - 15:45</span></div></div></div>Tue, 21 Jun 2016 20:39:39 +0000wmccain2332 at http://northsidesun.com