Brodsky: Let's brace ourselves for 2013

RICHARD BRODSKY

Published 12:11 am, Sunday, December 30, 2012

The year 2012 was the Year of High Anxiety, with a happy ending, at least for those who share my political and social views. Think back on the years' public events, clashes, and controversies. In America, and in New York, we faced profound choices, historical accidents, and acts of God. Although it didn't seem likely, mostly good things unfolded. Given the outcomes, I'm sorta sad to see 2012 depart. 2013 is likely to be worse.

Much of what happened nationally revolved around the elections. After much acrimony, panic and punditry Americans decided some of the most important questions we've faced for decades.

We are going to have a national health care system. We're going to try to negotiate our way to peace in the Middle East. We're not going to change the legal status of abortion. We are going to let the human rights of sexual minorities evolve to a higher plane. We're not going to give more tax breaks to the wealthy. And maybe we'll yell at each other a little less.

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In New York, the elections also dominated, but as a postscript to earlier events. Remember 2011? Gov. Andrew Cuomo engineered a set of political trades. New York's budget process was smooth, and gay marriage was approved by the Republican Senate. In return, Republicans controlled re-apportionment of Senate districts.

In 2012, those chickens came home to roost. Three Republican senators who supported gay marriage were forced out. But the new lines and big advantages in money and political skill resulted in the Republicans eking out a slim majority, keeping them in power. This, in turn, catapulted four disaffected Democratic Senators into the welcoming arms of the Republicans. So we now have a bipartisan governing coalition, and nobody knows what will result.

That brings us back to Washington. The tea party took a thrashing, but because of re-apportionment the Republicans held on to the House of Representatives. The end of 2012 saw the tea party flex its muscles, and embarass a House speaker who was seeking compromise.

Now the Republicans' face a dramatic choice. If they allow it, a minority of their Conference will control the policy and politics of 2013, and very little will happen. If they don't allow it, enough Republicans' will vote with enough Democrats to create a bipartisan governing coalition.

And the New York parallels don't stop there. The nation is watching as three men in a room in Washington negotiate the terms of a budget agreement, subject to approval of the rank-and-file.

It's what happens in Albany each year, to hand-wringing and criticism from good-government groups and editorial boards. Their silence on the Obama-Reid-Boehner dynamic is striking.

Where's the outrage? I like to give credit to Lincoln for the renewed openness to actual politics. The movie, I mean.

Unlike many other societies, we settle large and divisive issues without shooting each other. And politics, horse-trading, re-apportionment, deals, compromises, secrecy, self-interest, vision, principle and ethics all have a part in those outcomes. "Lincoln" the movie dramatized all that and made it understandable. Good.

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Here are some end-of-year predictions: We go over the fiscal cliff, but it isn't a fall, it's a bungee jump and it gets fixed in February. Cuomo continues to evolve from an austerity, anti-tax budget hawk to Bob the Builder with an agenda of capital investments. The state Senate's new ruling coalition actually produces legislation. Shelly Silver wins the budget battle for the 14th time in 18 years.

Politics regains some of its lustre and legitimacy, in New York especially. The New York City mayoral race pits Christine Quinn against Billy Thompson in a primary run-off and the winner is elected mayor. Mike Bloomberg buys a big newspaper — not the Times Union, thank goodness. Hillary Clinton takes a year off, dramatically raising Cuomo's blood pressure by her silence on 2016.

And lest we forget what really matters, 2012 saw unspeakable suffering. While we're most conscious of the tragedies of Newtown and Sandy, we live in a world which tolerates, unseen and unspoken, the death, starvation, deprivation and persecution of millions.