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The next leader of the Conservatives is ... one of these 14

OTTAWA—A reality television personality and political outsider is the perceived frontrunner in a large field of experienced politicians, and to the party establishment’s surprise, could end up leading conservatives into the next election.

Sound familiar?

Surprisingly, that’s where the Conservative Party of Canada finds itself three months before members vote on who will replace Stephen Harper as leader.

The field remains crowded with 14 candidates. Their chances range from good to virtually non-existent. But with the two men thought to be heirs apparent to Harper — Jason Kenney and Peter MacKay — on the sidelines, no clear frontrunner has emerged.

Kevin O’Leary, the above-mentioned reality television personality and businessman, certainly has the edge in name recognition. But it remains an open question whether that will translate into support from the Conservative grassroots — though his team claims impressive fundraising and membership sales since entering the race.

A handful of Harper-era cabinet ministers and longtime MPs — Maxime Bernier, Andrew Scheer, Kellie Leitch, Lisa Raitt, Erin O’Toole, Chris Alexander, Michael Chong and Steven Blaney — can all claim some measure of continuity with the former government. But is that necessarily what Conservative members are looking for?

A crowded field is not unprecedented, and the Conservatives’ ranked ballot method for selecting leaders means the outcome is unpredictable. The large number of candidates has meant, however, only the loudest and most extreme policies and statements have made headlines.

But through the noise is one overarching question: who can best position the party to defeat Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the Liberal government?

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The party will announce its new leader in Toronto on May 27. The Star looked at all 14 candidates vying for the leadership before the final nomination cut-off on Feb. 24. Here’s what we saw.

Charles Taylor, the world renowned philosopher at McGill University, once said this to a Star columnist about Chris Alexander: “For a highly educated man, Alexander says the most stupid things.”

That’s pretty harsh, and somewhat — to pull a word from the philosophic canon — subjective. “Stupid,” one might say, is a matter of opinion.

Whatever the case, Alexander, a former diplomat and Conservative cabinet minister, is among the crowded slate of candidates vying for the party’s leadership.

Born in Toronto in 1968, Alexander was an only child. He grew up and went to McGill, before completing a graduate degree at Oxford University and joining Canada’s foreign service in 1991. From there he began a diplomatic career for which he has been roundly praised, first with a posting in Moscow and then, more famously, in Kabul, where he served for two years as Canada’s first resident Afghanistan ambassador and worked as a United Nations official from 2005 to 2009.

He entered politics two years later, when he was elected in Ajax and joined the Conservative government in Ottawa. He was widely hailed as a rising star in the party, given his foreign experience, command of both official languages and Oxford bona fides.

After serving as parliamentary secretary to the defence minister for two years, he was appointed immigration minister in 2013.

Four years later, he’s fighting for the leadership of the party from outside the parliamentary bubble. He was turfed by Ajax voters in 2015, on the heels of a string of pronouncements and policy positions that has left him associated with what University of the Fraser Valley political scientist Hamish Telford called “the excessive partisanship of the last government.”

Alexander has a history of snapping at journalists, for example. He once called parliamentary journalists “partisans” and griped on the CBC that the media didn’t cover the Syrian refugee crisis enough as his government took heat for its policies after the shocking circulation of the photograph of Alan Kurdi, a dead toddler pictured face down on a Mediterranean beach.

In opposing a court decision that allowed women to wear niqabs during citizenship ceremonies, Alexander was accused of likening Muslims to terrorists. He also stood onstage with Kellie Leitch — fellow leadership contender — when the Conservatives announced their controversial “Barbaric Cultural Practices” snitch line.

More recently, Alexander was filmed at the head of a crowd protesting Alberta’s carbon tax in Edmonton, waving his hand as if keeping time while the assembly chanted “Lock her up!” in reference to Premier Rachel Notley.

Chance of winning: While educated and bilingual, with a deep well of experience, Alexander’s stumbles and associations with the hyper-partisan elements of the Harper government probably make him a long-shot contender at best. Back to candidates menu.

Maxime Bernier

The libertarian

Age: 54

Position: MP for Beauce, Que.

Conservatism in the time of Trump, with its bent toward isolationism and restricting free trade, leaves Maxime Bernier preaching another doctrine to this country’s right-leaning ilk. He is and always has been a libertarian, and his campaign for the Conservative leadership has proven no different.

His website describes his core political vision as “personal responsibility and freedom.” He is against what he calls “corporate welfare” — the use of government funds to support private companies. He wants to dismantle the long-standing supply management system that subsidizes the milk and dairy industry in provinces like Quebec, slash the corporate income tax, and remove Ottawa from playing a role in health care. He has also vowed to cut Canada’s entire aid budget that doesn’t relate to disaster relief.

“The interesting thing is going to be how broad is that (libertarianism) in the Conservative party,” said University of the Fraser Valley political scientist Hamish Telford, mentioning the rise of a Trump-style conservatism less interested in the unchecked primacy of the free market.

But that isn’t Bernier’s style. The suave four-term MP comes from the Beauce region in southern Quebec. A father of two daughters, Bernier was a lawyer and businessman before he entered politics in the 2006 election, when the Conservatives under Stephen Harper won their first minority government. He’s been elected three more times since then, and now serves as the Opposition critic for innovation, science and economic development.

One fun fact about Bernier, who has been dubbed “Mad Max” by some: in 2013, he ran more than 100 kilometres in 13 hours across his riding to raise money for a local charity.

His time in office with the Harper Conservatives included postings as industry and foreign affairs minister. However, he was forced to resign in the face of a scandal, in which he left classified documents relating to an upcoming NATO conference at the home of his then-girlfriend, Julie Couillard, who reportedly also had ties to biker gangs.

Bernier never returned to a major cabinet portfolio after the uproar.

But now, he may have a chance to clinch the Conservative leadership. He’s leading the way in fundraising — raising more than $1 million in 2016 — and has an advantage in Quebec, which some observers argue is necessary to win the leadership.

“Given the structure of the race, where every riding is equal,” said Telford. “If you can’t appeal to those 78 (Quebec) ridings, you’ve put yourself in a serious deficit situation.”

Chance of winning: With his Quebec base and lead in the fundraising game, Bernier is among the leadership contenders with a solid chance of becoming Opposition Leader when party members vote in May. Back to candidates menu.

Steven Blaney

The tough guy

Age: 51

Position: MP for Bellechasse-Les Etchemins-Lévis, Que.

A Quebec lieutenant of the Harper era, he loves gun rights and subsidies for milk and dairy producers, but isn’t so keen on women voting with veils on. He’s Steven Blaney and he wants to run the country.

You may know him as the former public safety minister who introduced and continues to defend the controversial anti-terrorism legislation, C-51, which among other things expanded the police power to arrest and place restrictions on people suspected of backing outlawed groups.

You may also have noticed that he’s one of the Conservative leadership contenders whose campaign has touched on hotly debated identity questions, which were more infamously iterated in his opponent Kellie Leitch’s plan to screen immigrants for “Canadian values.” For his part, Blaney wants to strike a royal commission to “ultimately define” the national identity, and he says he will ban people from voting while wearing veils — even if he has to invoke the Constitution’s veto clause to prevent the Supreme Court from quashing the move.

As political historian Raymond Blake put it: “He’s playing to a particular audience here.” That is, the swath of the electorate that feels some trepidation towards “people they don’t quite understand,” Blake said.

Blaney arrives at this leadership contest more than 10 years after he was first elected, in 2006. The 51-year-old was born in Sherbrooke in 1965—during a Maple Leaf playoff run, his campaign website points out — and grew up in the nearby Beauce region of Quebec.

He trained as an engineer in Sherbrooke during the 1980s, started two companies, and took his first crack at politics in 1998, when — “tired of the quarrels between federalists and separatists,” his website says — he ran for the Action démocratique du Québec, a now-defunct right-wing party in the province.

He lost, but eventually attained elected office with the cohort of Quebecers that joined Stephen Harper’s first government in 2006.

Blaney served as minister of veterans affairs, and then in 2013, was appointed public safety minister in the Harper government.

Now, aside from the values proposals, Blaney wants to introduce a Gun Owners’ Bill of Rights, lower credit-card fees, and restore a Harper-era rule to limit the amount of time criminals can shave off their sentences for jail time served before their convictions.

Chance of winning: In a crowded field, Blaney may make a splash in Quebec ridings, but will likely be overshadowed by Kellie Leitch on the identity issues in the rest of the country. He is probably a long-shot contender for the leadership. Back to candidates menu.

Michael Chong

The Red Tory

Age: 45

Position: MP for Wellington-Halton Hills, Ont.

After six men were gunned down during evening prayers at a mosque in Quebec City, Michael Chong proclaimed that the shooting was no accident. On Twitter, it appeared he was accusing certain Conservative leadership contenders — not to mention U.S. President Donald Trump—of having blood on their hands.

“It’s a direct result of demagogues and wannabe demagogues playing to fears and prejudices,” Chong wrote of the deadly attack. “Politicians talking division, not unity, help normalize hate.”

For good measure, he added: “And yes, I’m angry.”

Until recently, the MP from Ontario was best known for his push under the previous government to pass a democratic reform bill that would loosen party discipline and decentralize power from the Prime Minister’s Office. But Chong is now vying to lead the Conservatives, taking on the mantle of the more centrist branch of the party and calling for a “big tent” movement to win the 2019 election.

For example, Chong supports a B.C.-style carbon tax — using money reaped from the tax to fund a reduction to income tax.

“He’s representing what’s left of the Red Tory legacy in the party,” said David Moscrop, a political scientist at the University of British Columbia.

With the shooting tweet, “I think he captured what a lot of folks were feeling and what very few politicians, especially in the Conservative party, were willing to say,” Moscrop said.

Chong grew up in Fergus, Ont., the son of Dutch and Chinese immigrants — both of whom died in separate car accidents at the same rural intersection, 20 years apart, according to his campaign website.

He completed a degree in philosophy at the University of Toronto, founded a rugby club in his hometown and also created the precursor to Historica Canada, which produces the popular Heritage Minutes and aims to increase awareness of Canadian history.

Chong was first elected in 2004, and has been the MP for Wellington-Halton Hills ever since. After the 2006 election, Chong was named minister of intergovernmental affairs and sport for the Harper Conservatives. However, he abruptly quit over his opposition to a government bill declaring the Québécois “a nation within a united Canada.”

He said at the time that he could never support what he saw as “ethnic nationalism” in the bill.

He is married with three sons, and still lives on a farm near Fergus.

Chance of winning: While polls have shown Chong far below the level of support for other candidates, some have said that the ranked ballot system used to elect the leader could favour Chong, who may be many members’ second choice. That could give Chong a path to victory. Back to candidates menu.

Kellie Leitch

The attention seeker

Age: 46

Position: MP for Simcoe-Grey, Ont.

Hers is perhaps the most provocative federal leadership campaign in recent memory.

Kellie Leitch, the self-avowed anti-elitist who boasted “22 letters” at the end of her name; the Conservative MP whose proposal to screen immigrants for “Canadian values” became so inflammatory that she was blamed for inciting hatred against Muslims that may have contributed to the deadly mosque shooting in Quebec City. There was an alleged break-in at her house, firestorm after firestorm involving her outspoken former campaign manager, Nick Kouvalis, and outrage at her call for a Trump-style movement in Canada.

Controversy, it seems, has been sparked at every turn in her bid to lead the Conservative party into the next election.

“You’ve got a very strange race in a crowded field,” said David Moscrop, a political scientist at the University of British Columbia.

“Some people are going to light themselves on fire to get attention. That’s the Kellie Leitch campaign.”

Leitch, 46, was born in Winnipeg, the eldest of three children. According to a 2011 profile in the Alliston Herald, Leitch’s family moved to Alberta when she was young, and she grew up in Fort McMurray. She skipped Grade 10 and by age 20 had started work on her medical degree even before she was finished undergrad, the paper reported. She took an elective course at Sick Kids hospital in Toronto, and went on to become a pediatric orthopedic surgeon.

She first ran for office in 2011, reportedly at the insistence of Jim Flaherty, the Conservative finance minister in the Stephen Harper government who died suddenly in April 2014. She served as labour minister in Harper’s cabinet and was re-elected in the riding of Simcoe-Grey in 2015. She was the first candidate to enter the race to succeed Harper as party leader.

Before her campaign and the attention it has garnered, Leitch was already associated with controversial policy proposals. During the 2015 federal election campaign, it was Leitch who stood behind a podium branded with the slogan “Barbaric Cultural Practices” to announce a snitch line for people to call if they suspect such practices are going on in their neighbourhoods.

Under the direction of Kouvalis, her campaign manager who resigned in early February, Leitch’s leadership bid has been centred on a plan to screen immigrants and refugees for “Canadian values” of equal opportunity, hard work, freedom, tolerance and generosity. She also wants to cap federal spending and abolish the CBC.

Kouvalis, who worked on the successful mayoral bids of Rob Ford and John Tory, became a lightning rod in his own right, for tweeting false news to “make the left go nuts” and calling a university professor a “cuck,” a term popularized by the white nationalist, “alt-right” in the U.S.

Chance of winning: While Leitch’s campaign seems designed to appeal to a certain segment of the Conservative base — those wary of immigration, for instance — most observers don’t predict her winning the leadership. But you can’t rule her out. With strong riding-level organization and enough support across the country, Leitch could pull it off. Back to candidates menu.

Pierre Lemieux

The social conservative (1)

Age: 53

Position: Former MP

It wouldn’t be a true right-wing leadership race without a healthy dose of social conservatism. Pierre Lemieux is here to provide.

The 20-year military veteran can be counted among the religious right of the Conservative party. He’s endorsed by the anti-abortion Campaign Life Coalition, supports the “traditional” definition of marriage and wants to make sure everyone dies a “natural death”— translation: only straight people should get married and assisted dying should be a no-go.

The 53-year-old grandfather — he has four daughters and one son — was a Conservative MP from the Ottawa area for three terms, from 2006 to 2015, when he was unseated by a Liberal. According to his leadership campaign, his father was in the air force for more than two decades, and Lemieux himself joined the military at 17,

He took engineering at the Royal Military College in Kingston, Ont., and served for two decades in the Canadian Forces, attaining the rank of lieutenant-colonel.

Through the campaign, Lemieux has repeatedly spoken about his concerns with Canada’s assisted dying legislation, which was passed last year. He calls the practice “euthanasia” and has said he believes in the “inherent dignity of human life from the moment of conception through to natural death.”

He also wants to openly debate abortion in Parliament, something former Conservative prime minister Stephen Harper did not allow. In late January, Lemieux put out a campaign video vowing to restrict sex-selective abortion.

He has also lashed out against “chronic political correctness” that he argued was represented in a Liberal government bill that extends human rights protections to expressions of gender identity. In a campaign video on his website, he argued that the state shouldn’t punish anyone for failing to use a transgender person’s preferred pronoun.

“That is an encroachment of freedom of speech,” Lemieux said. “Political correctness is something that needs to be pushed back.”

Other policies Lemieux is proposing include giving Parliament the power to elect Supreme Court judges, increase face-to-face interviews of refugees from “areas with high risk of radical Islamic terrorism,” and the repeal of any carbon tax imposed by the Trudeau government.

Chance of winning: Slim. His campaign is designed to appeal to the social conservative arm of the party membership, a segment that is too small to give him a real shot at victory. Back to candidates menu.

Deepak Obhrai

The diversity champion

Age: 66

Position: MP for Calgary Forest Lawn

Deepak Obhrai is the dean of the Conservative race, having been elected in his eastern Calgary riding seven times since 1997.

Elected first as a Reformer and then for the Canadian Alliance, Obhrai briefly sat with Progressive Conservative MPs as Stephen Harper was busy uniting the right. He had a front-row seat for the birth of the modern Conservative party from multiple angles.

Despite his long service, Obhrai was never elevated to Harper’s cabinet, instead serving as a parliamentary secretary for foreign affairs for almost a decade. It’s a post that allowed him to travel the world and rub elbows with world leaders.

By all accounts, the Tanzania-born MP is an extreme long shot to lead the party. But Obhrai has used his campaign to urge his fellow candidates to ease off anti-immigrant and xenophobic rhetoric.

Obhrai has attacked Kellie Leitch’s proposal to screen immigrants for “anti-Canadian values,” and has publicly expressed concern that the Conservative Party could become “white people’s club” due to membership fees.

Inclusivity, Obhrai stated when he launched his campaign, would be at the heart of his pitch to the party membership. Add to that what he calls “core conservative values” — fiscal discipline, accountable government, and support for national defence — and you’ve got the gist of Obhrai’s appeal.

“My campaign will not only focus on core conservative values but will also be based on inclusion practices and embracing the diversity that is Canada,” Obhrai wrote. “I wish to break the proverbial glass ceiling on institutional discrimination. I stand with young Canadians, new Canadians, with all Canadians.”

Other than that, Obhrai hasn’t officially proposed a whole lot of policy. He has proposed a federally funded centre to address homegrown terrorism, which would work with the community (he only mentions the Muslim community) to counter radical narratives and recruitment. The Liberal government has proposed a similar structure.

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A provocative businessman and television personality, Kevin O’Leary might be the only candidate in the Conservative leadership race that needs no introduction.

For years, O’Leary co-hosted a business news show on CBC, and appeared on the network’s Dragon’s Den reality show. Over that time, the Montreal-born 62-year old cultivated an image of a clear-eyed and hard-nosed defender of the free market, making controversial comments about the upside of global poverty and banning unions.

But that was all in the past, O’Leary said when he officially joined the Conservative leadership race.

“Absurd policy, great television,” O’Leary told the Star in January, trying to draw a distinction between what he’s said on national television and the policies he’ll put forward as a leadership candidate.

Even before officially entering the race, O’Leary was polling favourably against his rivals. His name recognition — and the willingness of news outlets to run “will he or won’t he?” stories — allowed O’Leary to stay out of the race until after the party’s French debate in Quebec City last month.

Since then, O’Leary has been splitting his time between Canada and the United States (he has, in the past, referred to Boston as “home”), while continuing to live-tweet his appearances on NBC’s Shark Tank.

From a policy perspective, O’Leary hasn’t kept within traditional conservative lines. He opposes the Liberals’ carbon tax plan, but recently mused about jailing executives whose companies failed to reach emissions targets. He told Ottawa’s CFRA radio station there’s “nothing proud about being a warrior” while discussing Canada’s military and peacekeeping legacy, drawing fire from leadership rivals.

His main pitch is on economic issues. O’Leary has railed against Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s deficit spending plans. He has selectively used long-term projections from the finance department to warn against growing the national debt (the analysis projected Canada’s economy would grow faster than the debt) to back up his argument that Canadians can’t afford to re-elect the Liberals in 2019.

What remains to be seen is whether O’Leary’s name recognition and policies will translate into grassroots Conservative support.

Chance of winning: He has consistently polled in the front of the pack, but can he translate that into votes? And honestly, after Donald Trump became president, should we really be making predictions? Back to candidates menu.

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In a leadership race with no fewer than five candidates from Ontario, Erin O’Toole has reached out to East Coast connections to drum up support.

The former veterans affairs minister studied law at Halifax’s Dalhousie University, and was stationed in Nova Scotia during his time in the Canadian Forces. In a recent interview with iPolitics, O’Toole revealed his favourite beer is Keith’s — another fact that could ingratiate the candidate with Bluenose Tories.

His eastern overtures have paid off with endorsements from Nova Scotia PC Leader Jamie Baillie, as well as John Hamm, the province’s former premier.

O’Toole will need to muster all the support he can get in the region to stay competitive in the still crowded race to replace Stephen Harper.

Born in Montreal in 1973, O’Toole was raised in Bowmanville, Ont. He came to politics honestly enough — his father, John O’Toole, served as the MPP for Durham from 1995 to 2014.

O’Toole was first voted into the House of Commons in a byelection in 2012, replacing former cabinet minister Bev Oda. In 2013, Harper appointed him the government’s parliamentary secretary for international trade and, in 2015, gave him the veterans affairs portfolio.

During his short time in cabinet, O’Toole was given credit for getting a handle on the veterans file — a significant source of criticism for the Conservative government, especially during Julian Fantino’s tenure as minister.

He’s running on a platform of free trade, health-care reform and strengthening ties with traditional allies like the United Kingdom, Australia and New Zealand. O’Toole has also pledged to “stand up” for veterans, for gun owners and for farm families — all familiar territory for the Conservative party.

O’Toole opposes the Liberal government’s carbon pricing plan, but has argued that the Conservatives need to articulate a larger vision on the environment and to combat climate change.

The Durham MP has also urged his colleagues to avoid personal attacks during the leadership race, while accusing Kevin O’Leary of being a closet Liberal.

Chance of winning: O’Toole appears to be in the middle of the pack, although closer to the top than the bottom. He’s fundraising well and collecting endorsements, and the Conservatives’ ranked ballot system provides the possibility of come-from-behind victories. Back to candidates menu.

Rick Peterson

The tax reformer

Age: 62

Position: Venture capitalist

Vancouver-based businessman Rick Peterson is one of two outsiders seeking to lead the federal Conservatives.

Peterson, the president of a financial company, says he’s been active in Conservative politics for three decades — including fundraising, volunteering and working as a policy adviser on multiple Conservative campaigns.

According to his campaign, Peterson spent 10 years living in France, where he played professional hockey and worked as a journalist for Southam News, after graduating from the University of Alberta.

In France, he earned a graduate degree in political science from the Institut d’Études Politiques de Paris. And he honed his French, making him one of the few fully bilingual candidates vying for the party’s leadership.

Peterson has spent almost three decades in the finance sector, and runs Peterson Capital, an investment firm with a small staff but four offices across Canada and in one in Geneva, Switzerland.

The platform he’s pushing focuses almost exclusively on taxation issues. The vision differs dramatically from Canada’s current tax system.

Peterson would eliminate corporate taxes, a move he suggests would boost economic growth.

He has also called for a flat tax, meaning all Canadian workers — low-income right up to CEOs — would be taxed at the same rate.

To partially offset that massive hit to Canada’s finances, Peterson proposes raising the GST by two percentage points. He claims such a move would be enough to “guarantee social programs” and guarantee “full funding for border security, personal safety and immigration services” — all while balancing the federal budget within two years.

Peterson has had a difficult time raising funds and boosting his name recognition in the race. In the fourth quarter of 2016, Peterson finished dead last among current Conservative leadership candidates in terms of fundraising.

He’s also losing the “air war” for media coverage and attention. His tax policies have not gained him much publicity in a campaign where all candidates are advocating cutting taxes.

Chance of winning: Peterson is last in fundraising and virtually unknown to most Canadians — not the signs of a campaign that is competitive. Back to candidates menu.

Lisa Raitt

The would-be uniter

Age: 48

Position: MP for Milton

Out of the quiet of the holiday season on Parliament Hill, Lisa Raitt came swinging. It was one of the first workdays of the new year, and she — perhaps in an effort to gain some attention in the packed race for the Conservative leadership — took shots at two of the more flamboyant and controversial opponents vying to take the helm of the party.

“Kevin O’Leary and Kellie Leitch are both taking lessons from what we just saw recently in the U.S. election,” said Raitt, referring obviously to the election of President Donald Trump. “They’re embracing a style of negative, and I would say irresponsible, populism,” she said.

“If principled and pragmatic Conservatives don’t join together, we will see our party hijacked by the loudest voice in the room.”

The message was clear. Raitt is positioning herself as a candidate with broad appeal, one who isn’t catering and even inflaming divisions and fears in Canadian society, which makes her the best candidate to win the 2019 election over Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

At least, that’s the pitch.

Raitt, 48, has been an MP for Milton since 2008, after working as CEO of the Toronto Port Authority. She held three successive ministerial portfolios in Stephen Harper’s cabinet — natural resources, labour and transport — and was the Conservatives’ finance critic in the House of Commons until last October, when she was prepping her bid for the leadership.

The mother of two teenage boys launched her campaign with a video that described a working-class upbringing in Cape Breton, which she said has given her an understanding of Canada “from the bottom.”

Her vision for Canada includes plans to shrink the government and trim spending, reduce personal and corporate income taxes, and increase federal apprenticeship grants.

In an open letter to Conservative members just before she launched her attack on O’Leary and Leitch, Raitt characterized the party’s leadership race as nothing less than existential: that it could determine whether the unified right-wing party — created from the union of the Canadian Alliance and Progressive Conservative Party in 2003 — succeeds or fails.

“This contest is about leadership. It is about which candidate can best communicate our principled policies to Canadians and earn their trust,” she wrote.

She is the youngest of seven kids. She told the Globe and Mail in January that, until her early teens, she didn’t know that she was being raised by her grandparents, and that one of the people she’d always known as her older sister was actually her mother.

Raitt has said that she struggled with the decision to run for the leadership, after her husband was diagnosed with early-onset Alzheimer’s last year.

Chance of winning: She was once considered an obvious contender in the race, given her extensive cabinet experience. But she hasn’t placed particularly well in the polls, is trailing several other candidates, and has been overshadowed by the controversial positions and celebrity of some of her opponents. She has a chance, but she’s not a frontrunner. Back to candidates menu.

Andrew Saxton

The banker

Age: 52

Position: CEO of a real estate company

Former North Vancouver MP Andrew Saxton is pushing his private sector bona fides in his bid to lead the Conservatives.

Saxton, who served as a parliamentary secretary for Finance and Treasury Board in the previous Conservative government, had a successful career in private banking before he was first elected in 2008.

In fact, Saxton claims to be the only candidate in the race to replace Stephen Harper that can boast “significant” experience in both the private and public realms.

“I would be committed to taking steps that would create a vibrant, free and unfettered economy that gives every Canadian the opportunity to both contribute to and share in our nation’s progress and prosperity,” Saxton said in October, when he launched his campaign.

Between his launch and the end of 2016, the campaign reported more than $100,000 in donations, putting Saxton firmly in the middle of the pack in terms of fundraising. Most of that money came from donors giving more than $1,000 each.

He’s advocating for something he calls the “Canadian Dream” — the opportunity for any Canadian to succeed, regardless of “what your last name is, or how long you’ve been here.”

It’s a message that puts his campaign at odds with some of the immigration and national security messages of candidates like Kellie Leitch and Steven Blaney.

Saxton’s family experience may have informed that message. According to his biography, his father immigrated from Hungary as a 17-year-old orphan before starting a successful financial company.

“Canada offered my father the opportunity and freedom to transform ideas and hard work into a better life for him and his family,” Saxton wrote.

“I want to make sure that this opportunity continues to be available for future generations.”

Chance of winning:

Saxton has run a low-key campaign, failing to make much of a splash. You could generously call him a very long shot. Back to candidates menu.

Andrew Scheer

The continuity candidate

Age: 37

Position: MP for Regina-Qu’Appelle, Sask.

Andrew Scheer likely represents the clearest continuation of Stephen Harper’s legacy in this race: a western MP preaching the virtues of balanced budgets, free trade, vowing to undo Liberal climate change plans and keeping the Conservative family united.

Like Harper, Scheer was born in Ontario before moving west, studying history and politics at the University of Ottawa and the University of Regina.

The 37-year-old was first elected to the House of Commons in 2004, representing a mostly rural riding in Saskatchewan.

Unlike most of the other long-time MPs in this race, however, Scheer never served in Harper’s cabinet. Instead, he spent the Conservatives’ last mandate as the neutral Speaker of the House of Commons, playing the role of referee during the daily debates.

So while he can’t claim responsibility for many Harper-era policies and projects, he also doesn’t have to wear any of their more unpopular decisions.

Scheer’s policy planks, however, could have easily been cribbed from previous Conservative platforms.

His environmental plan includes making it illegal to dump raw sewage in public waterways, but he would scrap the Liberals’ carbon tax and return to the Harper government’s “sector-by-sector” approach to environmental regulations.

Scheer promises to balance the budget within two years of taking power through government-wide spending cuts, similar to the move the Conservatives made in 2011 to rein in their own deficits. He’s also promising to seek out new free-trade deals with friendly nations — something the Harper Conservatives did, and the Trudeau Liberals continue to do.

The father of five children has also pledged to make maternity and paternity EI benefits tax-free, and increase flexibility for new parents who want to work part time during their leave.

The continuity pitch seems to be working with the Conservative grassroots. In the fourth quarter of 2016, the Scheer campaign reported roughly $300,000 in donations. Scheer has the endorsement of 23 current Conservative MPs and a number of senators and former politicians.

To top it off, Chuck Strahl, one of the few elder statesmen in the young party, is chairing Scheer’s campaign.

Chance of winning: Scheer is in the top tier of candidates in terms of fundraising and, seemingly, national support. He’s a frontrunner. Back to candidates menu.

That assumes that being “100 per cent conservative” means being anti-marriage equality, anti-abortion, and believing there’s a “war” on Canada’s oil and gas sector.

In the unlikely event Trost becomes Canada’s prime minister, he is committing to relitigate issues long thought settled in the country.

He is committed to bring in legislation banning “sex-selective abortion” — a tactic seen as a way to reopen the door to wider abortion laws.

Mandatory minimum sentencing rules struck down by the Supreme Court would be reinstated in a Canada led by Trost. He wants to use the constitutional “notwithstanding” cause to overrule the top court’s decision.

He opposes Ontario’s sex-ed curriculum, has criticized Alberta for allowing gay-straight alliances in schools, and has suggested the Quebec government wants to teach children “moral relativism.”

And Trost feels that the only valid marriage is one between a man and a woman — a position the party officially abandoned last year.

Trost is one of the only unapologetically “social conservative” in the race, championing a number of issues that Stephen Harper worked hard to keep quiet in the modern Conservative party.

Earlier this month, Trost was the only MP in the House of Commons to vote against establishing a gender equality week. He immediately attempted to fundraise from that stance.

It seems like a winning strategy for Trost, at least in terms of the ability to stay in the race and keep social conservative issues alive. According to party financial records, Trost managed to raise more than $122,000 in the fourth quarter of 2016, mostly through small donations.

The 42-year-old has sat in Parliament for the last 12 years, having been elected five times. Before public life, Trost worked as a geophysicist, holding degrees in economics and geophysics from the University of Saskatchewan.

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