Everyone asks about the 2016 Presidential race, and usually they are really asking, *what about Trump?* So here are some thoughts….
Polling shows interesting aspects to the demographics of Trump supporters. They are the least economically secure Republicans, and yes, there are poor Republicans. These folks tend to blame immigrants for their economic woes; their (typical) lack of higher education means they don’t understand globalization or the impact that crony capitalism and unending war has on their lives at all. They are firm believers in the American Dream; and they blame Obama for its recent demise. Oddly, in contrast to the stereotype of your typical Republican, they self-identify neither as extremely religious nor as extremely conservative.
But this may help explain why they support Trump, when you look at the actual positions Trump has put forward. Bearing in mind that he is light on policy and promises, and only a recent convert to the party, the sound bites emanating from his campaign have him expressing points of view that are anathema to Republicans:
• he is against many of the free trade agreements
• he is against war in Syria in particular, and other interventions more broadly
• he has been rude to many of the Republican establishment, such as the Koch brothers and Sheldon Adelson
• he called out the big money donor system of campaign financing during the first debate of the season, saying that he himself gives to both parties and finds that it pays off later (of course, he is paying little if anything for his current campaign, as the media is giving him free air time as long as he says outrageous things on a regular basis)
• he blames the moral corruption of the ruling elite for our woes
• he promises to save, not cut, Social Security
• he is showing the party elites that they are extremely unpopular even within the party itself; in some ways, he is sparking a class war within the Republican party
It’s kind of difficult to not like him, huh? Oh yeah, there is that other part of him…the racist. Let’s not forget that this country was founded on slavery and genocide, or that the American Dream he speaks of so often is inherently a White American Dream. Of course it is easy to point to an unnamed *other* as being the murderer, without delving into the real reasons the Dream is evaporating. But make no mistake: that dream is dying. And those whose only hope of a brighter future lay in its arms are pissed. They are looking for any scapegoat, and will follow any Savior who promises to bring it back; regardless of whether that Savior has a coherent plan or not.
Any coherent plan would involve an entire rebuilding of society. It includes ideas like:
• universal health care
• campaign finance reform
• higher taxes to fund a social safety net
• immigration that manages to support wages
• enforcing regulations on financial speculation, or nationalizing the financial sector
• changing how we finance education at all levels
• developing a care economy, or rewarding those who are not *working* in order to work at caring for others during illness or old age
• ending war
• rebuilding infrastructure, with the benefits of putting people to useful work and saving energy
• adding mass transit and ending our dependence on fossil fuels
• ending consumption-as-identity in our culture
This all ignores the simple fact, rarely recognized, that national politics are a complete and utter distraction. The Deep State will continue to work its agenda of unending war and global capital manipulation for the benefit of insiders. Even if you grant that he believed his own bullshit, the hope and change that Obama promised had no chance once it was confronted with the entrenched bureaucratic nightmare of state power. One man cannot make the changes we need today. Voting is a useless exercise meant to placate the masses; which is why the outcome can be so manipulated, as it doesn’t make a damn bit of difference who gets elected. Clinton, like Cheney earlier this century, is a part of the Deep State; heaven help us should she win. The Deep State will eventually fall; we can only hope that another Clinton presidency will hasten that outcome before it kills us all.
But as we work through the fantasy that our votes matter, don’t be surprised by what happens. My own prediction is this…the Republican elite will do whatever it takes to ensure Trump is not their candidate. And whether he asks for it or not, many of his supporters today will write-in his name on their ballots come November, splintering the Republican vote. They won’t abide by the meddling and they won’t turn their back on the only candidate who speaks to their need for hope just because of some silly party rules they deem bogus and contrived for the sole purpose of thwarting their man manage to keep him off the ballot. So here’s what you should consider: the Democratic candidate will be Clinton, and for the same reasons just detailed above. Whether it is the super delegates or some other rule, new or newly enforced, the elite of that party will also ensure the Sanders is no threat. Everyone who believes that voting is necessary and doesn’t fall for the *least evil* meme the two parties have invoked in prior elections to ensure your acquiescence to their planned outcome should take the same approach and write-in Sanders in November. And the sooner you begin to talk about this with your friends, the easier it will be when you need their help.