Field Position: Own Opponent's Down: To Go: Pre-Game WP: or Spread: Offense kicked off in 1st half?
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Results

Welcome to the Win Probability Calculator. WP estimates are based on a true non-parametric modeling of the NFL game, based on actual game situations and real game results.

Score difference is relative to team with possession. (Offense score − defense score)

The Period input includes the 4 quarters of regulation time, plus the 3 possible overtime game states. OT1st refers to the 1st possession of OT. -3pts refers to the situation following a 1st-drive FG. SD refers to sudden death.

Pre-game WP is an estimate of how likely the team on offense was to win the game, which represents relative team strength. The resulting 'Adjusted WP' reflects this input.