Saturday, September 6, 2008

Sarah Palin

We've been in the field in Florida and Michigan for a few hours now and there's no doubt that Sarah Palin is quite the hit- around 65% of people (in the unweighted counts) who say the Palin choice is influencing them one way or the other are saying it makes them more likely to vote for John McCain.

Here's the thing though: the topline number on whether Palin makes voters more likely to choose McCain or not is meaningless: it's all in the crosstabs. If all the folks saying they like her are Republicans, I'm pretty sure they were voting for McCain anyway. I always thought the discussion of how evangelicals might stay home this year was kind of wishful thinking on behalf of the Democrats- I believe they would have turned out in November to vote for the lesser of two evils even if they weren't thrilled about it. Palin might make them more excited to vote for McCain, but an excited vote counts just the same as an unexcited one, which is of course why Barack Obama isn't blowing McCain out of the water at this point.

We'll be looking carefully when we release these polls not at the toplines on the Palin pick, but how she's playing with independents and Democratic women.

thunder pig tell that to all the extra volunteers that are showing up at Obama offices throughout the country. She makes Reps happy but she makes Dems even more determined to win. Thanks John, you just gave us Dems added inspiration to win this year.

The key cross tab question will be how Palin influences Indies and undecideds (especially the latter). If all her pick did is tiddy up the Rep base but at the expense of reaching Indies and undecideds then her selection was a bad gamble. I'd love to see the cross tabs on undecideds and Indies in your polls for FLA and Michigan. Also perhaps a little too small a subgroup, but how is Palin playing with Jewish voters in FLA?

Palin says she fought against the Bridge to Nowhere; wrong, she was for it before she was against it (and she was only against it when the bridge lost out in a vote in Congress)

Palin says she has fought earmarks; wrong, before her time as Mayor the town had received no federal earmarks, Palin upon assuming office hired a lobbyist connected to Abramhoff and by the end of her time as mayor had secured over %50 million in federal earmarks, this penchant for federal pork continued during her short time as gov.

Selling the state jet on eBay; wrong fact is she sold the jet the old fashioned way, at a loss, and sold it to one of her campaign contributors.

Crusader against corruption; during her short stint as gov of Alaska Palin is already facing three investigations into abuse of power.

Building a hockey rink as mayor; this story is true but Palin fails to mention that she bungled the financing for the rink so badly that when she left office she left the town in debt (before she was mayor the town had no debt).

It is 10 days, since the announcement of palin . There is a real momentum. I am biased but, if you think her excitement his worth the same like an unexcited voters, you are wrong. The things that can result in excitement

1) Dontations are pouring in to RNC and PAC. McCain campaign cannot get anymore money from september 1.(Remember the public finance and flip of Senator Obama)

2) Unpaid volunteers are pouring into the offices. There are extra people to make calls, carry yard signs to locations, register new voters, make a plan to mobilise voters to the precincts, write to editors and call talk shows

3) Even in the traingle area, you have started seeing more bumper stickers of McCain.

4) Rallies of McCain and Palin or creating Buzz. In Colorado Springs they had thousands of people in the rally. Those are pictures that they needed for more excitement.

5) Finally, the polls. In USA/Today Poll, the likely voters put McCain and Palin in front by 54/44.

I actually tend to be quite lazy and not vote in elections, but I am energized to vote for the Palin ticket this year.

The misogyny and sexism emanating from the Democrats is a huge turnoff, and brings back memories of everything I fought against when I was first entering the workforce in a traditionally male occupation (engineering). Every sneer that "hockey mom Sarah" is "unqualified" reopens that wounds and makes me very, very angry.

I trust McCain more on energy and national security than I do Obama, and those are the two biggest issues for me.