Summary

A tentative theory and framework for systems engineering, which accounts for all phases in the life cycle of a product or service such that rational choices can be make concerning design options even when uncertainty and risk are high. Proposes a definition for the emerging field.

Content / Structure

Acknowledgements

Foreward

Preface

1 Introduction to Engineering Design and Decision Making

1.1 The Engineering Process

1.2 Historical Perspective

1.3 The Decision-Making Process

1.4 Beans in a Jar

1.5 Summary

References

Problems

2 Design Options

2.1 The Purpose of this Chapter

2.2 The Role of Options in Decision Making

2.3 System Objectives

2.4 Options in Physical Design

2.5 System Manufacture and Deployment

2.6 Option in System Operation

2.7 End-of-Life Options

2.8 Paring the Option Space

2.9 Summary

Reference

Problems

3 The Fundamentals of Probability Theory

3.1 The Purpose of this Chapter

3.2 The Concept of Probability

3.3 Properties of a Random Variable

3.4 The Mathematics of Random Variables

3.5 Some Important Distributions

3.6 Baye's Formula

3.7 Hypothesis Testing

3.8 Summary

References

Problems

4 Monte Carlo Modelling

4.1 The Purpose of this Chapter

4.2 The Notion of a Monte Carlo Model

4.3 Random Number Generators

4.4 Sampling a Distribution

4.5 Formulating Monte Carlo Models

4.6 Analysis of Monte Carlo Model Results

4.7 An Alternative Analysis of Monte Carlo Results

4.8 Monte Carlo Models with Embedded Decisions

4.9 Summary

Reference

Problems

5 Optimization

5.1 The Purpose of this Chapter

5.2 The Need for Optimization in Systems Engineering

5.3 Notions of Minimum and Maximum

5.4 Maximation of a Function

5.5 Search Methods

5.6 Constrained Optimization

5.7 Linear Programming

5.8 Integer Programming

5.9 Network Flow Optimization

5.10 The Transportation Problem

5.11 Calculus of Variations

5.12 Summary

References

Problems

6 Engineering Microeconomics

6.1 The Purpose of this Chapter

6.2 The Concept of Preference

6.3 Equilibrium Economics

6.4 Discounting and Present Value

6.5 Interest and Annuities

6.6 Inflation and Deflation

6.7 The Value of a Forecast

6.8 Resource Economics

6.9 Shadow Prices

6.10 Summary

References

Problems

7 Utility Theory

7.1 The Purpose of this Chapter

7.2 Rationality

7.3 The Notion of Utility

7.4 Multiattribute Utility Functions

7.5 Arrow's Impossibility Theorem

7.6 Pareto Analysis

7.7 Decision Making in the Presence of Risk

7.8 The Value of Better Information

7.9 The Value of Improved Safety

7.10 Summary

References

Problems

8 Forecasting

8.1 The Purpose of this Chapter

8.2 Types of Forecasts

8.3 Regression Analysis

8.4 Logistic Curves

8.5 Forecasting Uncertainty

8.6 Forecasting Uncertainty with Embedded Decisions

8.7 Shortcomings of Forecasts

8.8 Summary

References

Problems

9 Engineering Systems Modelling

9.1 The Purpose of this Chapter

9.2 Engineering Systems and System Models

9.3 The Model-Building Process

9.4 Sources of Error in Symbolic Models

9.5 Design Models

9.6 System Life Cycle Modeling

9.7 Objective Functions

9.8 Summary

Reference

Problems

10 Analysis of System Reliability

10.1 The Purpose of this Chapter

10.2 Notions of System Reliability

10.3 System Reliability Diagrams

10.4 Cartoons and Scenarios

10.5 Decision and Event Trees

10.6 Two DIfferent Monte Carlo Approaches

10.7 Probabalistic Risk Assessment

10.8 An Alternative to Probabilistic Risk Assessment

10.9 Summary

References

Problems

11 Cost and Benefit Analysis

11.1 The Purpose of this Chapter

11.2 Costs

11.3 Modelling System Cost

11.4 Probabalistic Cost Analysis

11.5 Benefits

11.6 Probabalistic Benefit Analysis

11.7 Benefit-Cost Analysis

11.8 Project Selection

11.9 Summary

References

Problems

12 Methods of Decision Analysis

12.1 The Purpose of this Chapter

12.2 Decisions and Decision Analysis

12.3 Backward Induction

12.4 Expected Utility Analysis

12.5 The Use of Decision/Event Trees with an Infinite Number of Possible Outcomes

12.6 Confidence Level Decision Making

12.7 Minimax Decision Making

12.8 Regret

12.9 Bayes Solutions

12.10 Summary

References

Problems

13 State Transition Matrix Models

13.1 The Purpose of this Chapter

13.2 The State Transition Matrix Model

13.3 Example Problems

13.4 Including Uncertainty in State Transition Matrix Models

13.5 Summary

Problems

14 Modeling the Research and Development Process

14.1 The Purpose of this Chapter

14.2 Attributes of Research and Development Activities

14.3 A Simulation Approach to Evaluating Research abd Development Activities

14.4 Summary of the Simulation Approach

Reference

Problems

15 Information

15.1 The Purpose of this Chapter

15.2 A Quantitative Measure of Information

15.3 Summary

Problems

16 System Life-Cycle Modeling and Optimization

16.1 The Purpose of this Chapter

16.2 Objective Functions of a Firm

16.3 Objective Functions of Consumers

16.4 Phases of a Product Life Cycle

16.5 System Optimization and Improvement

16.6 Long-Term Planning

16.7 Model Validation

16.8 The Use of Model Results in the Design Process

16.9 Summary

Problems

17 Game Theory

17.1 The Purpose of this Chapter

17.2 The Description of a Game

17.3 Types of Games

17.4 Example Games

17.5 Information in the Context of Game Theory

17.6 Mixed Strategy Games

17.7 The Nash Model

17.8 The Minimax Theorem

17.9 Solution of a Two-Player, Zero-Sum Game by Linear Programming

17.10 Summary

References

Problems

18 Management of Engineering Systems Design and Operation

18.1 The Purpose of this Chapter

18.2 The Management of Engineering Systems Design

18.3 The Management of Engineering Systems Operation

18.4 Continuing Product Improvement

18.5 Summary

Problems

19 Case Studies

19.1 The Purpose of this Chapter

19.2 Solution of the Bean Jar Problem

19.3 Am Undersea Cable Design

19.4 Summary of the Systems Engineering Approach

20 Concluding Remarks

Appendix A Vectors and Matrices

Appendix B A Test for the Utility Independence of Attributes

Appendix C Determination of the Weighting Factors in a Linearly Additive Utility Function