Tuesday, January 29, 2013

While we've seen the numbers in black and white, and the trend's been unavoidable, it's still hard for the older observers among us to believe that the 2030 American Rugby Football Union (ARFU) Super Cup got higher ratings than the NFL's Super Bowl LXIV. More than 115 million viewers watched as Denver Barbarians wing Oz Hightower scored a last-minute try to cap a thrilling comeback and beat Old Blue of New York, 20-18 in last week's Super Cup match.

As recently as the early 2010s, rugby was an afterthought in American sports, something played by collegians and small handfuls of old-timers chasing past glory and a great party. But the long-germinating seeds of the NFL's decline took root in early 2013 when a UCLA study found signs of chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE) in living retired professional football players. On the heels of several high-profile suicides by retired NFL players like Junior Seau and in the midst of a number of lawsuits by former players, the UCLA study triggered a national debate about football and our tolerance for violence as entertainment. The Atlantic columnist Ta-Nehisi Coates wrote presciently at the time,

This is when you start thinking
about football and an existential crisis. I don't know what the adults
will do. But you tell a parent that their kid has a five percent chance
of developing crippling brain damage through playing a sport, and you
will see the end of Pop Warner and probably the end of high school
football. Colleges would likely follow. (How common are college boxing
teams these days?)

If the UCLA study was a significant public relations blow for the NFL, the 2015 legal ruling awarding $1.2 billion in damages to the families of players injured during their careers was an economic gutpunch. Shortly thereafter, the league outlawed high tackles, ironically borrowing a rule from rugby, but the NFL's popularity would never again reach its 2012 peak.

While the NFL struggled with the obvious tension between its celebration of violent hits and claims to emphasize player safety (in one particularly memorable juxtaposition, the league fined Pittsburgh Steeler James Harrison $75,000 for a 2010 hit on Cleveland's Mohamed Massaquoi - and then sold pictures of the hit on its website), rugby began to grow steadily. International and college sevens matches made for compelling television, and the 2016 Rio Olympics were a significant stage for the game - enough so that the ARFU was founded shortly after the Games, with eight teams in traditional rugby hotbeds like San Francisco, New York, and Boston.

By 2022, the NFL had experienced six consecutive years of ratings declines, which hurt the league significantly as it negotiated new television deals with its broadcast partners. At the same time, the ARFU inked its first national television contract, with NBC Sports Network signing to broadcast a Match of the Week and the entire playoffs.

Though President Barack Obama talked about football's need to address its concussion issue as far back as 2013, the tragic on-field death of USC wide receiver Torey Butler in 2025 spurred a theretofore slow-moving Congress into action. Led by Massachusetts Senator Tom Brady, a bipartisan effort in both chambers resulted in significant new player safety and equipment rules for football at all levels. Decried by hard-liners as the Mark Kelsoization of the game, the legislation stopped short of banning the sport, but had a material impact on how it was played.

Two years later, the NFL awarded a new television contract to TNT and Apple after no major networks bid on the package. Meanwhile, ESPN joined NBC Sports Network as a broadcast partner for the ARFU, which increased to 16 teams. All of the rugby league's games were now televised nationally.

In 2028, Jonathan James, the top pick in NFL draft, spurned the league to sign with the ARFU Dallas Harlequins. The Cal grad starred at running back for the Bears' gridiron squad while doing double duty as a wing on their national champion rugby squad.

Just this year, in a move rumored for some time, the NFL contracted to 24 teams while the ARFU expanded to 20. Commissioner Tim Tebow (and quite a story his ascension was, to be sure) is rumored to be in talks with the upstart American Rugby League to develop a hybrid football/rugby game to compete with the ARFU.

And now, we see ARFU ratings exceed those of the NFL for the first time. We still like our violence, it seems, but we're increasingly unwilling to let it come at such cost. Like boxing before it, American football seems destined to decline slowly, but absolutely surely, until it becomes a quaintly barbaric anachronism.

I like it - not just making the unpopular prediction of the NFL's demise, but doubling down with the unpopular prediction of rugby's ascension.

I disagree, on common sense grounds. However in defense of the post, one would have to concede that predicting the long-term future is tricky business. Fifty years ago, if someone wrote a blog post predicting that the NFL would be far and away the #1 sport in the country and that the NBA would be on even footing with baseball, people would've said he's crazy. Also, people predicted we'd have flying cars by now.

Personally I'd say a massive breakdown of society into anarchy and actual barbarism is more likely than rugby surpassing football, but that's somewhat less fun and probably more suitable for ZeroHedge than GTB.

boxing used to be among the most popular sports in america. as did horse racing. the future is, like, a long time from now. i'm starting to actually convince myself that the nfl is in trouble. whether rugby is its successor is open for debate - lacrosse is growing like topsy, and it includes hitting with sticks and lots of physical contact.

fair point. he's also almost certainly a republican, which won't help - though scott brown showed it isn't impossible. more likely he'll be the senator from california, running as a schwarzeneggar republican.

Sorry, not buying it. As technology has made sports viewing easier and better on TV, football has become far more popular. I don't see either going the other direction in the near future. Will football change some? Sure. Go the way of the phonograph? Doubtful.

Excellent post, Robbie. I don't think it matters how popular football is, once insurance becomes unmanageable, that will matter more. Joining a fraternity and becoming a doctor were very popular things to do a generation ago, but liability and lawsuits grew to where there is a notable downturn in each. If schools have to pay significant insurance rates to have a football team, many won't do it.

Joining fraternities is less popular because of insurance concerns? Hmmm. Looking back, that's probably why I never considered joining a frat at Florida. Definitely not because they were filled with preppy, self important douchebags.

Worked out though, I prefer my douchebag friends to be degenerate, narcotic loving scums who don't attend meetings.