Is monetary policy loose or tight? The deputy governor of the central bank showed you this indicator

2019-04-25 21:30:12 890 ℃

Over the years, in order to be able to predict the future trend of monetary policy in advance, market analysts have been constantly pondering the expression and subtle changes of monetary policy in every central bank's voice to the outside world.

From the Central Economic Working Conference in 2018 to the regular meeting of the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee in the first quarter of 2019, the statement that prudent monetary policy should be tightened and moderate has never been absent. And the most difficult thing to understand is "moderate tightness". How to judge the tightness? Where is the moderate degree? These questions were answered at the regular briefing on the policy of reducing the financing cost of small and micro enterprises held by the State New Office.

China News Agency, Xia Bingsheng

did not relax and can not be said to tighten up now

China's first quarter economy has achieved an unexpected opening red. External analysis generally believes that the combination of positive macroeconomic policies is an important reason for China's economic opening red, but the market is also doubtful, and the economic fundamentals have rebounded. In this case, will there be a marginal tightening of monetary policy? Sun Guofeng, Director of the Monetary Policy Department of the Central Bank, pointed out that at the end of March 2019, M2's growth rate was 8.6%, and the stock of social financing scale increased by 10.7% year-on-year, which basically matched the growth of nominal GDP. It should be said that moderate monetary growth supported high-quality economic development. In the first quarter, RMB loans increased by 5.81 trillion yuan, an increase of 952.6 billion yuan over the same period last year. The increase was mainly directed to the weak links of private enterprises and small and micro enterprises.

由此，有效应对了社会信用收缩压力，保持了流动性合理充裕和货币信贷合理增长，避免了金融和实体经济竞相收缩，有效改善了市场预期，促进了国民经济实现平稳开局。 Will the trend of monetary policy in the future change with the opening of the economy? Sun Guofeng said: "The current domestic and international economic and financial situation is still complex, and there are many uncertainties. In this case, sound monetary policy should be timely adjusted and fine-tuned to meet the needs of economic operation in a reasonable range according to economic growth and price changes.

Photo Source Zhongxin

He further said that it should be noted that sound monetary policy, in general, has been properly and moderately tightened, which was not relaxed before, and can not be said to be tightened now. It has always been matched with nominal economic growth, which is conducive to supporting supply-side structural reform and high-quality development, and promoting a virtuous cycle of economy and finance.

Tightening is moderate to see liquidity

"When the Political Bureau of the Central Committee analyzed the economic situation in the first quarter, it requested that monetary policy should be adjusted in time according to the changes of economic growth and price situation, without proposing to change the orientation of monetary policy." Liu Guoqiang, deputy governor of the Central Bank, said.

He further said that in this context, if one day the central bank carries out "counter-repurchase" or "spicy powder" medium-term lending facilitation operation, this does not mean that the general direction of monetary policy should shift to easing, but only to adjust short-term liquidity. Conversely, if the central bank does not do "reverse repurchase" operation for several days, it does not mean that monetary policy should be tightened. Doing not do "reverse repurchase" operation only means that market liquidity has been reasonably abundant and there is no need to operate.

Liu Guoqiang said bluntly: "If the policy changes several times a year, one moment is tight, the other is loose, nobody can stand it." How to judge the orientation of monetary policy? Liu Guoqiang made a suggestion: to judge monetary policy, we should remember the four words "moderate tightening".

Photo Source Zhongxin

How to judge "moderate tightness"? He went on to point out that some people now judge whether liquidity is loose or tight by the effect of liquidity, such as whether a price is rising or falling, to judge whether liquidity is loosening or tightening. What's more, it depends on the operation of the central bank's monetary policy and judges whether it is tight or loose according to the operation of the central bank.

"I think these are all reasonable, but I suggest that in addition to these, we can also look directly at liquidity." Liu Guoqiang said that there are many liquidity indicators. One of the simplest indicators is the repurchase rate between banks, such as DR007 (7-day repurchase rate pledged by interest rate bonds) and so on. "Interest rate is the price of funds, which can reflect the supply and demand of funds. Looking at the price changes, we can see whether the bottom is loose or tight.

Liu Guoqiang stressed: "The central bank has no intention to tighten monetary policy, nor to relax monetary policy. We do not want to see a shortage of liquidity in the market, nor a flood of liquidity in the market. < p > < p > Source: Guoshi is a through train