Can Fox beat Davis?

"Prepare for a truly brutal battle between Fox and Davis for the precious votes of the Right that will make the difference between a place on the final ballot paper, and an early bath tomorrow afternoon. Dr Fox has the momentum, Mr Davis has the guile."

That's the prediction of Matthew d'Ancona in today's Telegraph. Whether Fox can hunt down Mr Davis is the most important question over the next 48 hours.

Here are the factors at play:

Was Fox's vote inflated by Eurosceptic tactical voting? Fox, with 42 votes, received 19 more votes than he had received public declarations. The Davis campaign is suggesting that tactical voting boosted Dr Fox's vote. They believe that otherwise undecided Eurosceptics voted for Dr Fox to dump Ken Clarke from the contest. That belief received some backing when David Healthcoat-Amory admitted to voting for Dr Fox for the sole reason of eliminating the once enthusiastic advocate of the euro and EU constitution. Did many others do the same? Such eurosceptics are not going to be attracted to the Davis camp, however, by its suggestion (reported on this morning's Today programme) that DD is the least eurosceptic of the candidates. This claim is apparently based on DD's refusal to match the other two candidates' pledge (which a DD team member described as "totemic") to take the Tory Party's MEPs out of the federalist EPP. A core of LF's vote was the Cornerstone Group - safely delivered by John Hayes MP. They aren't going to desert Dr Fox now.

Who can win most of Ken Clarke's supporters? My guess is that David Cameron will pick up three-quarters (maybe more) of Clarke's backers. Ken Clarke's leading supporter - Sir Malcolm Rifkind - has already declared for the 39-year-old education spokesman. Ken Clarke will almost certainly vote for Mr Cameron and may even declare for him later today. DD's 'We're the least Eurosceptic' message seems designed to win over a few Clarke backers but is it credible? Europhile and DD-backer Ian Taylor will be the DD campaign's frontman in the pitch to KC's backers. The Guardian suggests that the Fox team will deploy the moderate Gary Streeter in its bid to pick up a few Clarke votes. Mr Streeter is on excellent terms with people like Alistair Burt and David Curry but it will be a tall order for him to attract KC voters to LF's vividly eurosceptic colours. Senior Fox campaign manager Oliver Heald (a Clarke supporter in 2001) has organised for a number of Clarke supporters to meet Dr Fox today.

Can Liam Fox attract defectors from David Davis? This will be the doctor's most fertile territory. Many DD supporters are complaining that their choice appears exhausted and unable to restart his campaign after the Blackpool setbacks. Adam Holloway has already jumped ship - telling DD on Monday night that he wouldn't be able to back him (although I think he switched to Cameron, not Fox). At least three other DD supporters either supported other candidates for substantial or tactical reasons in yesterday's ballot. According to today's Guardian Chris Grayling MP, of the Fox campaign, has said that "the opportunity has now arisen for us to become the champions of the right."

Will DD's careerist backers switch to DC? Some of DD's early backers probably supported him for reasons more to do with their career prospects than because they had decided Mr Davis was the right man to lead the Conservative Party. A few MPs might join the Cameron bandwagon in order to improve their chances of becoming Shadow Minister for Administrative Affairs in the Cameron era.

Who do the grassroots want? The unscientific poll on this site suggests that the party in the country might prefer a Fox-Cameron showdown to a Davis-Cameron contest. If MPs are listening to their association members they might be encouraged to switch to Dr Fox. A better indication of grassroots opinion will come tomorrow when a YouGov survey of Tory members is published by The Telegraph. Owen Paterson MP, a Fox supporter, is already talking up this factor: " I don't know how Davis can win in the country. There is momentum in the Davis camp, but it is all going in the wrong direction. A Fox-Cameron battle would be really good for the party in the country."

Will DC supporters vote tactically for Fox or Davis? This is the biggest unknown factor. DC may get close to 100 votes tomorrow. He doesn't need all of those votes and some MPs might be 'released' to inflate the vote of the candidate that they think would be easier to beat in the run-off. The trouble with that tactic is that the DC camp aren't sure who that easier-to-beat candidate might be.

My prediction is that David Davis will scrape through. He will
progress to the final round as a wounded candidate and one who has
failed to find any strong response to the Cameron Phenomenon. Without
something dramatic it is very difficult to see how David Cameron could
be beaten. If Fox fails to progress (which would disappoint me for the reasons stated yesterday) I predict that he will endorse David Cameron. There are poor personal relations between Dr Fox and Mr Davis.

Make your own predictions for tomorrow's second round by clicking here.

Comments

Cameron will not pull Labour voters full stop. He's an Etonian, he speaks posh.

Every leader since Douglas-Hume has been chosen on this basis. While it was probably a good strategy for Heath, Thatcher and, possibly Major, background is not relevant today. The electorate is not as judgemental as you say (despite 6 state-educated leaders, they view as a Tory characteristic).

Have you heard, Kenneth Clarke MP has been knocked out of the leadership bid? This is a shame because Ken is an extremely able and popular politician.

This leaves only three other MPs in the running. One is Dr Liam Fox MP. He is the best of the lot - the most principled man of talent that Parliament has seen for more or less quite a while.

Also there are two others, both called David, but with different surnames. The heaviest is David Davis MP. Some of his supporters are especially supportive, which is to be welcomed in a leader.

And the other candidate is David Cameron MP. He is favourite on account of his qualities, including his ability to run an effective team, to speak from the heart, and to have weighed the world in its true measure.

My prediction for Thursday's vote is a Clar-Cam-Foxy-Davis joint ticket, a veritable Toryfest - a Conathon if you will - joining the left, right, top and bottom wings of the party chicken in one super-Thatch.

Although not a DD fan, he does at least command support from across the Party - Ian Taylor, Damian Green etc. Fox, to my knowledge, only has the support of MPs from the Tombstone Group. Best scenario would be for DD and DC to be presented to the membership.

But some MPs loaned their support to Fox to stop Clarke. I would say that Fox only has about 25-30 loyal supporters of which 20-odd are Tombstoners.

Then you'd be wrong. Again. Only Heathcoat-Amory is known to have voted to keep Clarke out. There was certainly no tactical voting from the DD camp - they couldn't afford to look as if they were going backwards...

Dr Fox has drawn supporters from all wings of the party. The simple truth is that he had around 20 votes before Cornerstone decided for him en masse. Perhaps it's time you put away your prejudice and tried applying facts?

"But some MPs loaned their support to Fox to stop Clarke. I would say that Fox only has about 25-30 loyal supporters of which 20-odd are Tombstoners."

Then you'd be wrong. Again. Only Heathcoat-Amory is known to have voted to keep Clarke out. There was certainly no tactical voting from the DD camp - they couldn't afford to look as if they were going backwards...

Davis himself knows sorry thinks (I can't do strikethrough on here) that there was tactical voting afoot - listen again to his post ballot speech outside St. Stephen's.

Fox has certainly got more support than Cornerstone, but he's not exactly made it this far on his merits alone.

Gee Tim, don't you think that Davis just didn't want to admit to having underperformed? Clarke was the man his camp needed to keep in. It kept votes from Cameron (thus aiding DD's claim tio majority MP support) and offered a candidate whom DD could beat in the country.
If Davis's supporters tactically voted Clarke out, then I want someone else's tactics!

Dr Fox is a damned good candidate and has drawn support from all spectrums of the party. I hope he's in the final two.

The Davis Campaign Team (sic) has not exactly been the best to date. Their blog is so absurd I seriously considered email info@modernconservatives.com to tell them it appears to have been hijacked by a bunch of jokers, the latest post there suggests they've been looking to Margaret Thatcher after the first ballot in 1990 for ideas about how to regain momentum and so forth.

Yes but does it say more about the campaign team still being shite or that Mitchell is by lack of competition the most telegenic MP whom they can rely on? And if it's the latter then Davis is frankly toast.

Chris Grayling is fantastic - he's my local MP, although I've been mainly away at university since he first won the seat, and has really taken to the constituency like a duck to water. Compare that to his predecessor, Sir Archibald Hamilton who was hardly ever seen in the seat!

Because the members and the country deserve a real choice. Because this site's poll and YouGov's poll indicates Fox is the only serious alternative. Because if Cameron wins, his victory will have more legitimacy if approved by the members...

But if Davis and Cameron are genuinely the preferences of the MPs (in as far as Single Non-Transferable Vote can display accurate preferences) then why should Fox be supported? Why not allow the contest to go its natural course?

Grayling's predecessor (Archibald Hamilton) was very strong in his support for leaders having the clear backing of MPs. Perhaps I should follow his example instead of Grayling's?

We've not seen much on cameron at all yet - It seems one good speech and a young face has made most of us think he is our savour - are we really that shallow?

We owe it to ourselves as a party to let Cameron and Fox fight it out over the next month, so at least we (hopefully) know a little about what our new leader will stand for, what he really offers rather than just taking a shot into the dark and preying it works.

For obvious reasons, I am naming no names but the people in question regard ordinary members of the Conservative Party as by definition racist, sexist and homophobic vermin.

Michael McGowan, once again you're spouting this is outrageous rubbish. You cannot make allegations like this without backing it up. Name the names! If what you’re saying is true, there’s no risk of defamation because there’s no way that a whole meeting is going to conspire to lie in a libel trial.