Study puts I-933's cost in billions

But backers of land-use measure deride UW report

Published 10:00 pm, Tuesday, September 26, 2006

If voters pass the land-use measure Initiative 933 in November, it will cost taxpayers almost $8 billion during the next five years, a University of Washington study released Tuesday contends.

"The future of land use will change forever if the initiative passes," said Keith Dearborn, an environmental law and land-use lawyer who provided legal analysis for the study, which was conducted by a group of researchers at the UW's Northwest Center of Livable Communities.

But proponents of I-933 blasted as off-base the conclusions of the UW study, as well as the findings of a state report released last week that made similar dire predictions if the measure passes. Those in favor of the measure also said the UW study was biased because it was partially paid for by groups with ties to the opposition camp.

I-933, titled the "Property Fairness Initiative," would impose a "pay or waive" policy to compensate people who have been hurt by land-use regulations. The government would have the choice of paying compensation for restrictions placed on landowners or either modifying or waiving the restriction.

The initiative would come down hardest on laws regulating "critical areas" protected because of flooding or environmental concerns, according to the UW study.

A similar measure was implemented in Oregon in 2004, but the UW researchers said there is a significant difference between the Oregon law and what I-933 outlines: In Oregon, it is easier to waive land-use laws.

The Washington initiative does not provide lower-level government with the authority to waive regulations, and that's something the Legislature would have to address, according to the report.

"Initiative 933 could end up costing each resident of the state roughly $1,000," the study's lead author, Glenn Pascall, said in a statement. "Our analysis shows that I-933's cost to taxpayers is higher than in Oregon, which is wrestling with thousands of claims under its own land-use initiative."

The coalition against I-933 is taking the report's findings as confirmation that the initiative is too costly and would roll back community protections, said Aaron Toso, spokesman for No on 933.

The UW study was released one week after the state's Office of Financial Management estimated that in the next six years, I-933 would cost $7 billion to $9 billion.

Both reports have those in the pro-I-933 camp shaking their heads in disbelief. John Stuhlmiller, the assistant director for government relations at the Washington State Farm Bureau, says I-933 would be costly only if local governments fail to modify regulations.

Contrary to what the opposition says, amending regulations isn't tough, Stuhlmiller said. It's a matter of lower-level government offices modifying existing ordinances, ideally before claims are even filed.

"What it changes is the way of thinking," he said. "It says, look before you leap."

But Stuhlmiller said he wasn't surprised by the findings of Tuesday's study, which he believes was funded by foundations with environmental interests, some of which appear to be sympathetic to No on 933.

The total liability for compensation under I-933 is estimated at $7.8 billion over the first five years.

In the near term, I-933 compensation claims on timberland with critical areas could total $3.1 billion, and farmland with critical areas could total $3.2 billion.

More than one-fifth of the critical-areas claims would be in King and Snohomish counties, potentially costing taxpayers $1.5 billion. King County has more acres that may yield claims than any county in the state.