Seven conclusions of relevance for the future of the Norwegian oil sector

Two fundamental issues challenge the oil industry today, one short term and one long term issue. Short term, the question is, when will the oil market rebalance? What will be the oil price effect of that? Will shale oil alone be able to close the potential supply gap in 2017 and 2018? Which other sources of short and medium supply exists? And at what cost? Will offshore projects, like the three big fields in the Barents Sea; Johan Castberg, Alta/Gotha and Wisting, be competitive and thus see a final development decision?

The long-term issue is related to the carbon constrained world. Is it possible to combine oil and gas growth with the climate ambitions according to the Paris agreement? Given that we should limit fossil fuel emissions to 1130 Gt to 2100, which oil and gas resources could be produced, and which resources must remain in the ground? What is the role of Norwegian oil in this context?

During ONS, we in Rystad Energy will shed light on these issues through our 24 different knowledge presentations at our booth (see below) and our information session Tuesday at 16.30. Based on facts we have gathered and analyzed, we can conclude that 1) oil market will rebalance very soon, 2) oil prices will be up in 4 quarter, however 3) shale will be able to deliver sufficient new volumes in 2017 putting a temporary limit to the oil price recovery, however 4) marginal costs for shale will increase rapidly, 5) bringing new offshore projects back to a competitive position in 2018 and onwards, 6) including the three Barents Sea stand-alone projects and 30 subsea projects in Norway, 7) field development projects that also are sustainable from a climate perspective. Thus, after the toughest downturn ever for the Norwegian oil sector, we see light in the end of the 2015-2017 tunnel!