Independents lean more than they care to admit

Updated 7:31 am, Monday, September 24, 2012

Olivia Shirley, independent voter, says she will vote for Mitt Romney for president and Democrats for the House and Senate.

Olivia Shirley, independent voter, says she will vote for Mitt Romney for president and Democrats for the House and Senate.

Photo: Mayra Beltran

Independents lean more than they care to admit

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Baytown resident Zachary Brackin and TV reality star Kim Kardashian both have a problem. Kardashian told the Guardian recently that she voted for Barack Obama in 2008, but as "a liberal Republican" she's not sure she can vote for Mitt Romney because of his opposition to gay marriage.

"I don't know which way I'm going to go," she said.

Brackin, 28, who works in health and safety for a large oil and gas company, describes himself as a socially liberal fiscal conservative who would have voted for Ron Paul. Now that the Texas libertarian has decamped, Brackin, an independent, is as undecided as Kardashian.

"I have large troubles with both parties," he said last week. "I'm going to choose the lesser of two evils, but I don't know who that is yet."

Kardashian may be stuck in a limbo of indecision in 2012, but she, like Brackin, represents a group of Americans who contend they never choose sides strictly on the basis of party affiliation. Representing about a third of the American electorate, these self-styled independents have been called the nation's largest "party."

It is a percentage large enough, it would seem, to decide the presidential election. It is not quite that simple, however, in large part because the one-third figure is misleading.

Although self-declared independents take pride in saying they vote for the person not the party, pollsters and political scientists report that close to half invariably vote for the same party every election. The experts call them "leaners."

"They tend to be just about as reliable a vote as those who start out identifying," said Scott Keeter, director of survey research for the Pew Research Center, a nonpartisan think tank that conducts public opinion polling and demographic studies.

In addition, many independent voters live in states where the outcome is anything but undecided. Because neither Kardashian the Californian nor Brackin the Texan are residents of one of the eight or nine crucial swing states, both are politically irrelevant in 2012.

The share of true independent voters has declined in recent years, as partisan views have congealed on both sides of the political spectrum. A recent Pew Research Center report found that self-identified Republicans are more conservative than in years past and self-identified Democrats are more liberal. As George Washington University political scientist John Sides points out, the independents have become just as polarized as the partisans.

'A small sliver'

"Actually, they represent a small sliver of the electorate," Sides said. "They make up roughly 10 to 12 percent of American adults and probably 7 percent of people who actually vote."

"You could not win an election in the United States simply targeting independent voters, but frequently you cannot win an election without targeting some independent voters," McGuinness said.

However diminished in number, a candidate still has to pay attention to independents, said Craig Varoga, a Democratic consultant working on U.S. Senate races this fall.

"They're a very small group, but they wield considerable importance when a campaign is making decisions about how to allocate resources," he said. He noted that the choice is between turning out the base or persuading the independents and undecideds, or some combination of the two.

"Both of these (presidential) campaigns have enough money and resources to focus on turnout and getting the message out to independents," Varoga said.

He alluded to the results of a recent Pew Research Center poll showing that eight-in-10 registered voters say they have made up their minds with "no chance" that they will change. A mere 21 percent say they are undecided about their vote choice or that they may change their minds before Election Day.

Independent voter Olivia Shirley, 27, a Houston public relations professional, has her mind made up. She voted for Obama in 2008, but will cast her vote for Romney in November, coupled with votes for Democratic candidates for the House and Senate. She is hoping that a Republican in the White House will rein in "spending wildly," while Democratic legislators will resist cutting programs that people need.

"I'll vote for who I think is going to do for the country or the state what I think they ought to do," she said. "Some of it is guesswork."

Toni Mulvaney, an attorney who teaches law at Lamar University in Beaumont, remains an undecided independent. She said she always has been independent-minded, but became a truly independent voter in recent years "out of frustration and disgust." She will decide who deserves her vote, she said, based on the presidential debates and "what they say, how it applies to my life."

As a true independent, Mulvaney, 54, would seem to be a "moveable," to use Murray's term. Presumably, Kim Kardashian will resolve her own vote dilemma in similar ways.

McGuinness suggests post-election pundits assessing the independent vote may be able to say, "As Kim Kardashian goes, so goes the nation."