If the UK were to vote to leave the EU in the forthcoming referendum the implications would be many and varied. Some of these implications have received coverage, others have not, warns Paul Brannen.

Paul Brannen is a Labour MEP for the North East of England.

One area given little attention to date is the impact that an EU exit would have on Northern Ireland and especially the peace process.

I recently asked a senior politician from Northern Ireland what he thought the consequences of our leaving the EU would be. His reply was swift: “It would be a nightmare”.

This lack of attention is in many ways remarkable, because it becomes apparent fairly quickly that exit from the EU could well undermine 17 years of peace in a region that previously suffered decades of violence, civil strife and political failure. It’s easy to forget that it was only in 1998 that the Good Friday Agreement was signed, laying the constitutional foundations for a new, functioning Northern Ireland Assembly and executive that has seen power sharing between former bitter adversaries. As the only internal EU peace process that receives financial contributions from the EU, Northern Ireland has become an example to the wider world that what may seem unachievable is possible, giving hope to people around the world who currently face civil conflict and unrest.

A total collapse of the peace process

However, with politics in Northern Ireland already on the brink of breakdown and the Good Friday Agreement in jeopardy, a UK EU exit threatens a total collapse of the peace process.

Following UK exit from the EU, the nature of the border between the UK and the Republic of Ireland would fundamentally change. Instead of it being a porous border between two fellow EU member states it will become a ‘hard’ border, raising a whole host of questions regarding customs controls and trade tariffs, cross-border institutional cooperation and freedom of movement. In all likelihood it would create the bizarre prospect of a guarded and fenced or walled border between the two countries, something not seen even at the height of the Troubles – for without such an obstacle the eurosceptics refrain of “Give us back control of our borders” will be meaningless.

Joining the then European Economic Area (EEA) on the same day in 1973, the economies of the UK and its neighbour the Irish Republic have become entirely interdependent, with trade between the two states worth a huge €1 billion per week. The absence of any form of immigration control between the two entitles UK citizens to live and work in Ireland – and vice versa – and permits almost 24,000 employees to travel freely across the border to go to and from work every day. For those who aspire to a united Ireland the notion of any kind of ‘hard border’ makes this prospect more distant, so undermining the peace process in key sections of the community in Northern Ireland.

Loss of key funding structures for farmers, the fishing industry, small and medium sized enterprises and community regeneration programmes would have a devastating impact on a region where incomes are 22% lower than the EU average. As a region with high levels of unemployment and heavily dependent on manufacturing, many comparisons can be made between Northern Ireland and the North East of England, the region I represent in the European Parliament. Indeed, the North East is the only region in the UK that is likely to be financially worse hit than Northern Ireland by a ‘Leave’ vote.

Repealing the Human Rights Act

Special mention must be given to a development which is feared will run parallel to UK withdrawal from the EU – that of the repeal of the Human Rights Act by the UK government and a subsequent UK withdrawal from the European Convention on Human Rights. My Labour colleague for the North East, Jude Kirton-Darling, has done much to raise awareness about the worrying prospect of such a move for the UK as a whole, however nowhere will this be more keenly felt than in Northern Ireland, where a removal of these key protections may well be the fatal blow to the peace process. Indeed, as Irish Minister for Foreign Affairs and Trade, Charlie Flanagan, has pointed out, the Human Rights Act of 1998 “is woven into the structure” of the Good Friday Agreement that was signed in the same year. “The shared emphasis on human rights is part of what makes the peace process credible,” he says. Repeal of this crucial act would not only breach the terms of the peace process, it would also undermine the very fabric and structure of politics and government itself in Northern Ireland.

The psychological impact of a ‘Leave’ vote in David Cameron’s referendum and subsequent exit from the EU would be a tragedy for Northern Ireland. EU exit would not be cost free: would the end of the peace process in Northern Ireland be a price worth paying?

0 responses to “How a ‘Brexit’ could unravel the Northern Ireland peace process”

Don’t know about being a fantasist and I certainly have no ambition for an empire, but there are a number of points to make regarding this piece. Firstly on exit the funds we currently send to Brussels can be dispensed as we wish. Therefore it would be entirely possible to maintain (or even increase) current support to Northern Ireland and still spend less money than we presently do for membership of the EU.
Secondly regarding movement between the North and South. The Common Travel Area pre dates EU membership, it would be entirely possible to allow it to continue. Non Irish EU nationals would simply be required to obtain visas / work / residence permits etc., as was previously the case. Naturally the same would apply to UK nationals wanting to work or live in a mainland EU state. In other words there are alternatives, they may or may not be popular with different groups but they do exist. .
Regarding the ECHR, my understanding is that essentially what is being looked at is that the UK courts would have to take ECHR rulings into account before passing their own judgement. Such a position is supported by politicians from all main UK parties and the highest ranks of the judiciary. Indeed many in the judiciary believe this is already the position. (13/11/14 Lord Toulson a Supreme Court Justice “The Act requires the courts to ‘have regard’ to such decisions, and that means exactly what it says. “It does not require the courts to adhere slavishly to every Strasbourg decision even if after careful consideration they believe it to be wrong.”)
Finally there is the opposing side of the coin. The blank refusal to accept that a significant proportion of the UK population (possibly even a majority?) are increasingly unhappy with the direction of travel of the EU could ultimately result in violence from a small extremist element who consider themselves disenfranchised, such is the lesson of history.

The usual glossing over bollocks plus the suggestion that if they (you?) don’t get their (your?) way there would be violence from some (you?) that don’t like the EU. So who Mr Out do you think is going to commit violence if there is no exit from the EU? do tell. I’d love to know.

Love the reasoned logical way you discount my points regarding budgets, movement of people and the ECHR together and the supporting evidence as “glossing over bollocks”. The points I was making was that a UK exit from the EU does not need to mean an unravelling of the peace process.
While from other postings it is clear you have knowledge of business it is obvious from this one that you have no appreciation of history or the lessons it provides. It teaches us that a tiny number of fanatics with a strong sense of grievance can cause very significant problems. The population of Northern Ireland is 1.8m, the number of active members of the PIRA in 1988 according to the RUC was 300 – 1000, a miniscule proportion, yet who would deny they caused untold horror. You could also look at ETA, RAF, assorted fundamentalist Islamic groups etc. While I would not countenance or ever support violence I think you are naive in the extreme to discount the possibility given the passions involved.
Please feel free to continue your abuse in the absence of any rational argument.

Actually the Government will be able to drive the economy in Northern Ireland by funnelling money into the economy that is currently being wasted subsidising other countries economies in Europe. We would be able to do sweetheart deals with airlines to bring in more traffic to grow the economy so that it could stand on its own feet, bring in manufacturing with the offer of reduced taxes during a set period to allow them to get a foothold. We could invest in its infrastructure instead of someone else’s & when the republic sees the fruits of independence from the EU & what it can delivery they won’t be long hopping into their own lifeboat & abandoning ship.

I see neither walls nor fences in this image. There are occasional customs posts, but we had them up untiul recenty between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. Such installations would be nothing new. There are many reasons to feel alarm at the prospect of the UK, including Northern Ireland, sleep-walking into BREXIT and all of the problems that will bring for Anglo-Irish relations, but alarmist talk of a ‘hard’ border is not necessary.

Bit like the IRA conducting its business as it does today going back & forth across the border smuggling diesel & contraband dodging each jurisdiction. They are taking sod all notice of EU Courts & the like.

Your suggesting Anarchy not me. If Northern Ireland voted to unite with the Republic & the issue became a Dublin problem there would still be serious issues of IRA sponsored crime. The IRA haven’t gone away they might not be blowing up cars on the streets of London but they are still here. The UK has the wherewithal to track & keep tabs on these people the republic doesn’t. In the Republic the Gardai still have to stop us & look at the windscreen to see if cars are taxed & insured & they are that inept in the performance of their duties that they still have vast numbers of Drink Drivers getting off on a multitude of technicalities so doubt they would have the means to control any so called external EU border.