an alternative investment strategy to buying oil today andinvestments necessary to catch up. This was the view o?ered by oilinvestment strategy. date t) in order to purchase a quantity Q barrels of oil

The aim of this paper is to test whether a stable long-term relationship exists between oilprices of the relationship between oilprices and the real effective exchange rate of the dollarOilPrice and the Dollar Virginie Coudert , Val´erie Mignon , Alexis Penot§ 6th April 2005 Abstract

Research on oil markets conducted during the last decade has challenged long-held beliefs about the causes and consequences of oilprice shocks. As the empirical and theoretical models used by economists have evolved, so has our understanding of the determinants of oilprice shocks and of the interaction between oil markets and the global economy. Some of the key insights are that the real price of oil is endogenous with respect to economic fundamentals, and that oilprice shocks do not occur ceteris paribus. This makes it necessary to explicitly account for the demand and supply shocks underlying oilprice shocks when studying their transmission to the domestic economy. Disentangling cause and effect in the relationship between oilprices and the economy requires structural models of the global economy including oil and other commodity markets.

shocks, Oilprice uncertainty, Nonlinearity in the OilPrice- Output Relationship. 2 #12;Table Production: Is the Relationship Linear?" John Elder and Apostolos Serletis, "Volatility in OilPrices-Term OilPrice Forecasts: A New Perspective on Oil and the Macroeconomy." 3 #12;1 Overview The relationship

Several recent studies establish that crude oil and natural gas prices are cointegrated, so that changes in the price of oil appear to translate into changes in the price of natural gas. Yet at times in the past, and very ...

Since 2003 the international oil market has been moving away from the previous 20-year equilibrium in which prices fluctuated around $25/bbl (in today's dollars). The single most important reason is that growing demand has ...

Methodology that recently lead us to predict to an amazing accuracy the date (July 11, 2008) of reverse of the oilprice up trend is briefly summarized and some further aspects of the related oilprice dynamics elaborated. This methodology is based on the concept of discrete scale invariance whose finance-prediction-oriented variant involves such elements as log-periodic self-similarity, the universal preferred scaling factor lambda=2, and allows a phenomenon of the "super-bubble". From this perspective the present (as of August 22, 2008) violent - but still log-periodically decelerating - decrease of the oilprices is associated with the decay of such a "super- bubble" that has started developing about one year ago on top of the longer-term oilprice increasing phase (normal bubble) whose ultimate termination is evaluated to occur in around mid 2010.

This book discusses the geopolitical consequences of the oil-price drop in such countries as Indonesia, Nigeria, Algeria, Mexico and Egypt. It also assesses the overall implications of the drop in oilprices on oil-producing areas.

1 Business Cycle Effects on Metal and OilPrices: Understanding the Price Retreat of 2008 of macroeconomic business cycles on six metals traded on the London Metal Exchange and oilprices. Reduced GDP oilprices (as a proxy for energy inputs in metals production) are derived. The estimated trend

We outline initial concepts for an immune inspired algorithm to evaluate and predict oilprice time series data. The proposed solution evolves a short term pool of trackers dynamically, with each member attempting to map trends and anticipate future price movements. Successful trackers feed into a long term memory pool that can generalise across repeating trend patterns. The resulting sequence of trackers, ordered in time, can be used as a forecasting tool. Examination of the pool of evolving trackers also provides valuable insight into the properties of the crude oil market.

The Impact of OilPrices on the Air Transportation Industry Final Report Prepared by: John Hansman................................................................................................47 3 EVALUATING THE EFFECTS OF OILPRICE CHANGE ON THE US DOMESTIC CARGO INDUSTRY .................48 3............................................................................................................................74 4 OILPRICE IMPACTS IN GENERAL AVIATION

Oilprices and government bond risk premiums By Hervé Alexandre*º Antonin de Benoist * Abstract : This article analyses the impact of oilprice on bond risk premiums issued by emerging economies. No empirical study has yet focussed on the effects of the oilprice on government bond risk premiums. We develop

Asymmetric and nonlinear pass-through of crude oilprices to gasoline and natural gas prices Ahmed distributed lags (NARDL) mod- el to examine the pass-through of crude oilprices into gasoline and natural gas the possibility to quantify the respective responses of gasoline and natural gas prices to positive and negative

Over the long term, the Annual Energy Outlook 2007 (AEO) projection for world oilprices -- defined as the average price of imported low-sulfur, light crude oil to U.S. refiners -- is similar to the AEO2006 projection. In the near term, however, AEO2007 projects prices that are $8 to $10 higher than those in AEO2006.

World oilprices in Annual Energy Outlook 2005 are set in an environment where the members of OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) are assumed to act as the dominant producers, with lower production costs than other supply regions or countries. Non-OPEC oil producers are assumed to behave competitively, producing as much oil as they can profitability extract at the market price for oil. As a result, the OPEC member countries will be able effectively to set the price of oil when they can act in concert by varying their aggregate production. Alternatively, OPEC members could target a fixed level of production and let the world market determine the price.

Lower OilPrices: A Reason to Give Thanks By GENE EPSTEIN Nov. 29, 2014 1:31 a.m. ET I give thanks thanks for an oilprice that fell below $70 a barrel Friday, mainly because it bodes well for general early this year ("Here Comes $75 Oil," March 31). Amy Jaffe, executive director of energy

World oilprices in the Annual Energy Outlook 2006 (AEO) reference case are substantially higher than those in the AEO2005 reference case. In the AEO2006 reference case, world crude oilprices, in terms of the average price of imported low-sulfur, light crude oil to U.S. refiners, decline from current levels to about $47 per barrel (2004 dollars) in 2014, then rise to $54 per barrel in 2025 and $57 per barrel in 2030. The price in 2025 is approximately $21 per barrel higher than the corresponding price projection in the AEO2005 reference case.

This thesis aims to answer: (1) to what extent can oilprices and other economic indicators predict the changes in housing prices and rent in the Calgary single family housing market and (2) to determine what the lag time ...

The goal of this study was to determine quantitatively how sensitive and vulnerable the Libyan economy's aggregates are to fluctuations in world oilprices. In order to achieve the goal, a macroeconomic model of the Libyan economy was constructed using annual data from 1962-1978. The model contains 36 relations, of which 19 are behavioral equations and 17 are identities. The model was validated by both historical simulation and a one-period out-of-sample forecast. Having established the predictive ability of the model, alternative future scenarios of the Libyan economy were examined from 1980-1987 by performing an ex-ante simulation for this period. This simulation was divided into two sections. The first covers the period 1980-1983, for which actual data for Libyan oilprices and the volume of Libyan oil exports are available. The second section covers the period 1984-1987. In this section the future of the Libyan economy was simulated under a basic price scenario which reflects the most likely forecast regarding the world oilprice level from 1984-1987. In addition, a sensitivity analysis was performed by establishing a new scenario for the world oilprice level from 1984-1987. A comparison the results of these simulations shows the effects resulting from changes in the world oilprice level on the Libyan economy.

This paper examines the price-reversibility of world oil demand, using price-decomposition methods employed previously on other energy demand data. We conclude that the reductions in world oil demand following the oilprice increases of the 1970s will not be completely reversed by the price cuts of the 1980s. The response to price cuts in the 1980s is perhaps only one-fifth that for price increases in the 1970s. This has dramatic implications for projections of oil demand, especially under low-price assumptions. We also consider the effect on demand of a price recovery (sub-maximum increase) in the 1990s - due either to OPEC or to a carbon tax-specifically whether the effects would be as large as for the price increases of the 1970s or only as large as the smaller demand reversals of the 1980s. On this the results are uncertain, but a tentative conclusion is that the response to a price recovery would lie midway between the small response to price cuts and the larger response to increases in the maximum historical price. Finally, we demonstrate two implications of wrongly assuming that demand is perfectly price-reversible. First, such an assumption will grossly overestimate the demand response to price declines of the 1980s. Secondly, and somewhat surprisingly, it causes an underestimate of the effect of income growth on future demand. 21 refs., 11 figs., 1 tab.

In 1983 Hamilton demonstrated the correlation between the price of oil and gross national product for the U.S. economy. A prolific literature followed exploring the potential correlation of oilprices with other important indices like inflation, industrial production, and food prices, using increasingly refined tools. Our work sheds new light on the role of oilprices in shaping the world economy by investigating the metabolic paths of value across trade between 1960 and 2010, by means of Markov Chain analysis. We show that the interdependence of countries' economies are strictly (anti)correlated to the price of oil. We observed a remarkably high correlation of 0.85, unmatched by any former study addressing the correlation between oilprice and major economic indicators.

The Price of Oil Risk Steven D. Baker, Bryan R. Routledge, September 2011 [December 20, 2012 multiple goods. We use this optimal consumption allocation to derive a pricing kernel and the price of oil for oil. As an example, in a calibrated version of our model we show how rising oilprices and falling oil

The scaling properties of oilprice fluctuations are described as a non-stationary stochastic process realized by a time series of finite length. An original model is used to extract the scaling exponent of the fluctuation functions within a non-stationary process formulation. It is shown that, when returns are measured over intervals less than 10 days, the Probability Density Functions (PDFs) exhibit self-similarity and monoscaling, in contrast to the multifractal behavior of the PDFs at macro-scales (typically larger than one month). We find that the time evolution of the distributions are well fitted by a Levy distribution law at micro-scales. The relevance of a Levy distribution is made plausible by a simple model of nonlinear transfer

This thesis reviews how oilprice has evolved throughout time since it was discovered and commercially exploited in 1859 in Pennsylvania. Rather than a pure economic study, this thesis illustrates how major historic and ...

This thesis is composed of three chapters, which can be read independently. The first chapter investigates how oilprice volatility affects the investment decisions for a panel of Japanese firms. The model is estimated ...

relationship between oil and stock markets, which parallels the one between high oilprices and macroeconomicOILPRICE IMPACT ON FINANCIAL MARKETS: CO-SPECTRAL ANALYSIS FOR EXPORTING VERSUS IMPORTING://www.economie.polytechnique.edu/ mailto:chantal.poujouly@polytechnique.edu hal-00822070,version1-14May2013 #12;1 Oilprice impact

Oilprices are very volatile. But much of this volatility seems to reflect short-term,transitory factors that may have little or no influence on the price in the long run. Many major investment decisions should be guided ...

A time series is estimated of in-ground prices - as distinct from wellhead prices ? of US oil and natural gas reserves for the period 1982-2002, using market purchase and sale transaction information. The prices are a ...

This paper develops a novel approach by which to identify the price of oil at the time of depletion; the so-called terminal price of oil. It is shown that while the terminal price is independent of both GDP growth and the price elasticity of energy...

This study proposes two methods, (1) a probabilistic method based on historical oilprices and (2) a method based on Gaussian simulation, to model future prices of oil. With these methods to model future oilprices, we can calculate the ranges...

On the relationship between world oilprices and GCC stock markets Mohamed El Hedi Arouri Associate ABSTRACT We provide comprehensive evidence on the relationship between oilprices and stock mar- kets,version1-7Mar2013 #12;2 1. Introduction The causal relationship between oilprices and stock markets has

EA 4272 On the relationship between the prices of oil and the precious metals: Revisiting,version1-17Apr2014 #12;On the relationship between the Prices of oil and the Precious Metals: Revisiting/US dollar exchange rates, the S&P500 equity indices, and the prices of WTI crude oil and the precious metals

on so many other market sectors. In addition, oilprices have historically exhibited a num- ber of shortOilPrice Trackers Inspired by Immune Memory William Wilson , Phil Birkin , and Uwe Aickelin School concepts for an immune inspired algorithm to evaluate and predict oilprice time se- ries data

The oilprice really is a speculative bubble. Yet only recently has the U.S. Congress, for example, showed recognition that this might even be a possibility. In general there seems to be a preference for the claim that the ...

This paper presents a model based on multilayer feedforward neural network to forecast crude oil spot price direction in the short-term, up to three days ahead. A great deal of attention was paid on finding the optimal ANN model structure. In addition, several methods of data pre-processing were tested. Our approach is to create a benchmark based on lagged value of pre-processed spot price, then add pre-processed futures prices for 1, 2, 3,and four months to maturity, one by one and also altogether. The results on the benchmark suggest that a dynamic model of 13 lags is the optimal to forecast spot price direction for the short-term. Further, the forecast accuracy of the direction of the market was 78%, 66%, and 53% for one, two, and three days in future conclusively. For all the experiments, that include futures data as an input, the results show that on the short-term, futures prices do hold new information on the spot price direction. The results obtained will generate comprehensive understanding of the cr...

If oil and natural gas were perfect substitutes in all markets where they are used, market forces would be expected to drive their delivered prices to near equality on an energy-equivalent basis. The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil generally is denominated in terms of barrels, where 1 barrel has an energy content of approximately 5.8 million Btu. The price of natural gas (at the Henry Hub), in contrast, generally is denominated in million Btu. Thus, if the market prices of the two fuels were equal on the basis of their energy contents, the ratio of the crude oilprice (the spot price for WTI, or low-sulfur light, crude oil) to the natural gas price (the Henry Hub spot price) would be approximately 6.0. From 1990 through 2007, however, the ratio of natural gas prices to crude oilprices averaged 8.6; and in the Annual Energy Outlook 2009 projections from 2008 through 2030, it averages 7.7 in the low oilprice case, 14.6 in the reference case, and 20.2 in the high oilprice case.

The historical basis for a link between crude oil and natural gas prices was examined to determine whether one has existed in the past and exists in the present. Physical bases for a price relationship are examined. An ...

Crude oilprices plunged to five year lows late in 1993. However, examination of consumer petroleum product prices around the world reveals that consumers in many countries did not enjoy a consequent drop.

Over the 1995-2005 period, crude oilprices and U.S. natural gas prices tended to move together, which supported the conclusion that the markets for the two commodities were connected. Figure 26 illustrates the fairly stable ratio over that period between the price of low-sulfur light crude oil at Cushing, Oklahoma, and the price of natural gas at the Henry Hub on an energy-equivalent basis.

: is there evidence of super cycles in crude oilprices? On one hand, one might expect the strong demand associatedIs There Evidence of Super Cycles in OilPrices?* Abdel M. Zellou and John T. Cuddington** March 22 since 2000 represents the early phase of a `super cycle' (SC) driven by the sustained rise in demand

with another spike in gasoline prices and their reported record profits. Some months ago, during the last gasoline price spike, Congress summoned the executives of the Big Oil companies to testify aboutDoes Big Oil Collude and Price Gouge? Big Oil came back into the headlines in recent weeks

Most empirical studies have focused on the demand side of energy with little or no attention to the supply side. To deal with this defect, this paper adopts a microanalytic approach to the problem of the individual oil firms to provide a basis for determining the effects of changes in such macro-variables as prices on their operations. However, instead of the familiar econometric approach to energy studies, a goal programming approach is adopted. Using a multinational oil company as a case study, the effects of change in crude oilprices are examined. The results, among other things, support the hypersensitivity of oil companies to changes in economic cycles, the price inelasticity of demand for crude oil in the short run, and a time lag between price change and the time an oil company responds to it. The management and policy implications of the results are also discussed. 28 refs., 3 tabs.

Annual Energy Outlook 2008 (AEO) defines the world oilprice as the price of light, low-sulfur crude oil delivered in Cushing, Oklahoma. Since 2003, both "above ground" and "below ground" factors have contributed to a sustained rise in nominal world oilprices, from $31 per barrel in 2003 to $69 per barrel in 2007. The AEO2008 reference case outlook for world oilprices is higher than in the AEO2007 reference case. The main reasons for the adoption of a higher reference case price outlook include continued significant expansion of world demand for liquids, particularly in non-OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) countries, which include China and India; the rising costs of conventional non-OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) supply and unconventional liquids production; limited growth in non-OPEC supplies despite higher oilprices; and the inability or unwillingness of OPEC member countries to increase conventional crude oil production to levels that would be required for maintaining price stability. The Energy Information Administration will continue to monitor world oilprice trends and may need to make further adjustments in future AEOs.

the short-run relationships between oilprices and GCC stock markets. Since GCC countries are major world relatively little work done on the relationships between oilprice variations and stock markets) shows a significant relationship between oilprice changes and stock markets in Greece. Basher

the dynamic relationship between oilprice variations and stock markets. The pioneering paper by Jones model with GARCH effects to American monthly data and shows a significant relationship between oilpriceOilPrices, Stock Markets and Portfolio Investment: Evidence from Sector Analysis in Europe over

Rouen & LEO Abstract This paper examines the short-run relationships between oilprices and GCC stock on the relationships between oilprice variations and stock markets, as underlined by Basher and Sadorsky (2006. For instance, using a VAR model, Papapetrou (2001) shows a significant relationship between oilprice changes

in the price of crude oil quickly transmit themselves through the "food chain," quickly hitting gasoline prices an additional pop to the price. In addition, the futures markets draw off gasoline from existing stocks to supply more gasoline in the near future, when even higher prices are expected. In other words, prices

The oilprices reported in Annual Energy Outlook 2009 (AEO) represent the price of light, low-sulfur crude oil in 2007 dollars. Projections of future supply and demand are made for "liquids," a term used to refer to those liquids that after processing and refining can be used interchangeably with petroleum products. In AEO2009, liquids include conventional petroleum liquids -- such as conventional crude oil and natural gas plant liquids -- in addition to unconventional liquids, such as biofuels, bitumen, coal-to-liquids (CTL), gas-to-liquids (GTL), extra-heavy oils, and shale oil.

This paper provides electricity cost price estimates for biomass-based CHP plants and oil shale power plants to be constructed before 2013 and 2015 that can serve as references for more detailed case-specific studies. Calcula-tion results give electricity costs prices under different CO2 quota

The Elk Hills Naval Petroleum Reserve is located near Bakersfield, California and ranks seventh among domestic producing oil fields. In Feb. 1986 the Department of Energy awarded contracts to 16 companies for the sale of about 82,000 barrels per day of NPR crude oil between April and September 1986. These companies bid a record high average discount of $4.49 from DOE's base price. The discounts ranged from $0.87 to $6.98 per barrel. These contracts resulted in DOE selling Elk Hills oil as low as $3.91 per barrel. Energy stated that the process for selling from NPR had gotten out of step with today's marketplace. Doe subsequently revised its sales procedures which requires bidders to submit a specific price for the oil rather than a discount to a base price. DOE also initiated other efforts designed to avoid future NPR oil sales at less than fair market value.

We document a new stylized fact regarding the term structure of futures volatility. We show that the relationship between the volatility of futures prices and the slope of the term structure of prices is non-monotone and ...

The U.S. Department of Energy prepared this Final Statement to FEA-FES-77-7 to assess the environmental and socioeconomic implications of a rulemaking on crude oilpricing incentives as pertains to the full range of oil production technologies (present as well as anticipated.)

What would be the effect of CO2 pricing on global oil supply and demand? This paper introduces a model describing the interaction between conventional and non-conventional oil supply in a Hotelling framework and under CO2 constraints. The model...

The 1970 price of Saudi Light crude was $1.21, of which 89 cents was excise tax. By end-1974, the price was about $11, of which 30-50 cents was a fee paid to the former owners, now operators. The detailed history of the ...

This powerpoint presentation to be presented at the World Renewable Energy Forum on May 17, 2012, in Denver, CO, discusses building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPV) in the residential section and includes an analysis of installed rooftop prices.

The Congress expressed concern about the Department of Energy's actions in selling oil from the Elk Hills Naval Petroleum Reserve at what appeared to be unreasonably low prices. DOE officials believe that Naval Petroleum Reserve oil has been and is currently being produced at the appropriate rate and that no recoverable oil has been lost. This fact sheet provides information on the basis for the procedures followed by DOE in selling Naval Petroleum Reserve oil and sales data for the period extending from October 1985 through April 1986.

The fast economical growth of Estonia in past years has set us several questions on sustainability of oil shale mining in Estonia. For how long do the oil shale resources last? What are the mining expenditures in the areas of different mining conditions and how do they change in future? Thus, in

This paper extends the long-run growth model of Esfahani et al. (2009) to a labour exporting country that receives large inflows of external income - the sum of remittances, FDI and general government transfers - from major oil exporting economies...

This work applies the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method to data on real quarterly oilprice (West Texas Intermediate - WTI) and U.S. gross domestic product (GDP). This relatively new method is adaptive and capable of handling non-linear and non-stationary data. Correlation analysis of the decomposition results was performed and examined for insights into the oil-macroeconomy relationship. Several components of this relationship were identified. However, the principal one is that the medium-run cyclical component of the oilprice exerts a negative and exogenous influence on the main cyclical component of the GDP. This can be interpreted as the supply-driven or supply-shock component of the oilprice-GDP relationship. In addition, weak correlations suggesting a lagging demand-driven, an expectations-driven, and a long-run supply-driven component of the relationship were also identified. Comparisons of these findings with significant oil supply disruption and recession dates were supportive. The study identified a number of lessons applicable to recent oil market events, including the eventuality of persistent economic and price declines following a long oilprice run-up. In addition, it was found that oil-market related exogenous events are associated with short- to medium-run price implications regardless of whether they lead to actual supply disruptions.

We characterize the macroeconomic performance of a set of industrialized economies in the aftermath of the oilprice shocks of the 1970s and of the last decade, focusing on the differences across episodes. We examine four ...

Introduction. A working paper entitled "Oil and Natural Gas Reserve Prices 1982-2002: Implications for Depletion and Investment Cost" was published in October 2003 (cited hereafter as Adelman & Watkins [2003]). Since then ...

Sunco Oil manufactures three types of gasoline (gas 1, gas 2 and gas 3). Each type is produced by blending three types of crude oil (crude 1, crude 2 and crude 3). The sales price per barrel of gasoline and the purchase price per barrel of crude oil are given in following table: Gasoline Sale Price per barrel Gas 1

This report summarizes the results of a survey of residential No. 2 distillate fuel (home heating oil) and liquefied petroleum gas (propane) prices over the 1995--1996 heating season in Michigan. The Michigan`s Public Service Commission (MPSC) conducted the survey under a cooperative agreement with the US Department of Energy`s (DOE) Energy Information Administration (EIA). This survey was funded in part by a grant from the DOE. From October 1995 through March 1996, the MPSC surveyed participating distributors by telephone for current residential retail home heating oil and propane prices. The MPSC transmitted the data via a computer modem to the EIA using the Petroleum Electronic Data Reporting Option (PEDRO). Survey results were published in aggregate on the MPSC World Wide Web site at http://ermisweb.state.mi.us/shopp. The page was updated with both residential and wholesale prices immediately following the transmission of the data to the EIA. The EIA constructed the survey using a sample of Michigan home heating oil and propane retailers. The sample accounts for different sales volumes, geographic location, and sources of primary supply.

I strongly urge that the forecasts recognize the high oilprices and gas prices experienced in 2008 and the development of carbon capture and storage applied to new coal fired generating stations, gas prices will only go up. Gas from the Rockies will move east as quickly as transport is available. To the extent

The Energy Efficiency Division of the Vermont Department of Public Service (DPS) monitored the price and inventory of residential heating oil and propane during the 1997--98 heating season under a grant from the US Department of Energy`s Energy Information Administration (EIA). DPS staff collected data biweekly between October 5, 1997 and March 16, 1998 on the retail price of {number_sign}2 home heating oil and propane by telephone survey. Propane price quoted was based on the rate for a residential home heating customer using 1,000+ per year. The survey included a sample of fuel dealers selected by the EIA, plus additional dealers and fuels selected by the DPS. The EIA weighted, analyzed, and reported the data collected from their sample.

that extensive public outreach/education can make "radical" value pricing schemes more acceptable. Further, while acceptable to the public through extensive public outreach. (Currently, the majority of people surveyed say the zone during the day on weekdays (the charge also applies to parking on public roads within the zone4

An in situ oil shale retort is formed in a subterranean formation containing oil shale. The retort contains a fragmented permeable mass of formation particles containing oil shale and has a production level drift in communication with a lower portion of the fragmented mass for withdrawing liquid and gaseous products of retorting during retorting of oil shale in the fragmented mass. The principal portion of the fragmented mass is spaced vertically above a lower production level portion having a generally T-shaped vertical cross section. The lower portion of the fragmented mass has a horizontal cross sectional area smaller than the horizontal cross sectional area of the upper principal portion of the fragmented mass above the production level.

This report summarizes the results of a survey of home heating oil and propane prices over the 1990/1991 heating season in Michigan. The survey was conducted under a cooperative agreement between the State of Michigan, Michigan Public Service Commission and the US Department of Energy (DOE), Energy Information Administration (EIA), and was funded by a grant from EIA. From October 1990 through May 1991, participating dealers/distributions were called and asked for their current residential retail prices of No. 2 home heating oil and propane. This information was then transmitted to the EIA, bi-monthly using an electronic reporting system called Petroleum Data Reporting Option (PEDRO). The survey was conducted using a sample provided by EIA of home heating oil and propane retailers which supply Michigan households. These retailers were contacted the first and third Mondays of each month. The sample was designed to account for distributors with different sales volumes, geographic distributions and sources of primary supply. It should be noted that this simple is different from the sample used in prior year surveys.

This report summarizes the results of a survey of home heating oil and propane prices over the 1990/1991 heating season in Michigan. The survey was conducted under a cooperative agreement between the State of Michigan, Michigan Public Service Commission and the US Department of Energy (DOE), Energy Information Administration (EIA), and was funded by a grant from EIA. From October 1990 through May 1991, participating dealers/distributions were called and asked for their current residential retail prices of No. 2 home heating oil and propane. This information was then transmitted to the EIA, bi-monthly using an electronic reporting system called Petroleum Data Reporting Option (PEDRO). The survey was conducted using a sample provided by EIA of home heating oil and propane retailers which supply Michigan households. These retailers were contacted the first and third Mondays of each month. The sample was designed to account for distributors with different sales volumes, geographic distributions and sources of primary supply. It should be noted that this simple is different from the sample used in prior year surveys.

A cover graph shows a glimpse of the future: the world's next offering to civilization. No one knows how much, and just when, great amounts of heavy crude oil resources will be developed. Even less is speculated about bitumen resources. But speculation is not required to reach the conclusion that non-conventional oil must be developed in the Western Hemisphere -- and soon. Considerable data are presented in this issue to reinforce this conclusion. This issues also contains the following: (1) refining netback data series for the US Gulf and West Coasts, Rotterdam, and Singapore, as of Dec. 9 and Dec. 20, 1988; and (2) ED fuel price/tax series for countries of both the Western and Eastern Hemisphere, Dec. 1988 edition. 9 figures, 11 tables.

and politics of the region. Future pipeline projects – such as the Nabucco pipeline – are highly controversial, and Russia’s efforts to control oil and gas supplies in the region have recently intensified. Russia has gained increased influence in its...

This draft: April 9, 2013 Abstract The price of crude oil in the U.S. never exceeded $40 per barrel until mid. Joseph Kennedy II, New York Times, April, 10, 2012. 1 Introduction. The price of crude oil in the U.S price changes? We clarify the effects of speculators on commodity prices. We focus on crude oil, but our

In cooperation with the United States Department of Energy (USDOE), Energy Information Administration (EIA) the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection and Energy (DEPE), Office of Energy participated in a program to monitor retail prices of no. 2 heating oil and propane in New Jersey. According to program instructions, we conducted price surveys on a semi-monthly basis to obtain the necessary information from retail fuel merchants and propane dealers identified by the EIA. The period of the surveys was October 7, 1991 to March 16 1992. We submitted data collected as of specified reference dates to the EIA, within two working days of those dates.

The world oil market is regarded by many as a puzzle. Why are oilprices so volatile? What is OPEC and what does OPEC do? Where are oilprices headed in the long run? Is “peak oil” a genuine concern? Why did oilprices ...

Waste oils offer a tremendous recycling potential. An important, dwindling natural resource of great economic and industrial value, oil products are a cornerstone of our modern industrial society. Petroleum is processed into a wide variety of products: gasoline, fuel oil, diesel oil, synthetic rubber, solvents, pesticides, synthetic fibres, lubricating oil, drugs and many more ' (see Figure 1 1. The boilers of Amercian industries presently consume about 40 % of the used lubricating oils collected. In Ontario, the percentage varies from 20 to 30%. Road oiling is the other major use of collected waste oils. Five to seven million gallons (50-70 % of the waste oil col1ected)is spread on dusty Ontario roads each summer. The practice is both a wasteful use of a dwindling resource and an environmental hazard. The waste oil, with its load of heavy metals, particularly lead, additives including dangerous polynuclear aromatics and PCBs, is carried into the natural environment by runoff and dust to contaminate soils and water courses.2 The largest portion of used oils is never collected, but disappears into sewers, landfill sites and backyards. In Ontario alone, approximately 22 million gallons of potentially recyclable lube oil simply vanish each year. While oil recycling has ad-114 Oil

Low oil recovery efficiency is attributed to low vertical and areal sweep efficiency. The major causes of the low recovery efficiencies may be classified into three categories: (1) gravity segregation, (2) reservoir heterogeneity, and (3) unstable viscous fingering. Water alternate with gas (WAG) injection processes have been employed in field operations to improve the recovery efficiency and cut the cost of gas injection. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of reservoir and process parameters on the oil recovery efficiency of carbon dioxide WAG processes in cross-sectional reservoirs. To accomplish this, a two-dimensional compositional numerical simulator was developed. The simulator was functional and verified in this study. The simulator was then used to generate simulation data for studying the effects of seven dimensionless parameters on the oil recovery efficiency: (1) reservoir length to height ratio, (2) sine of the reservoir dip angle, (3) vertical to horizontal permeability ratio, (4) gravity to viscosity ratio (GVR), (5) injection rate, (6) water to gas (WAG) injection ration, and (7) pore volumes injected. Results of the investigation showed that oil recovery efficiency as a percentage of the oil place (OIP) is affected to different degrees by the seven parameters. Two correlations of the oil recovery efficiency versus the seven dimensionless parameters were established. The first was established for pore volumes injection ranging from 0 to 1.0 and the second from 0 to 0.7. The second correlation showed better agreement with the simulation results. The correlations will provide useful information in the design of the carbon dioxide WAG processes in cross-sectional reservoirs.

............................................................................................................................... 12 OilPrice Forecast Range. The price of crude oil was $25 a barrel in January of 2000. In July 2008 it averaged $127, even approachingSixth Northwest Conservation and Electric Power Plan Appendix A: Fuel Price Forecast Introduction

Problems in the establishment of natural gas prices are outlined. The tropics discussed include: US average natural gas prices; US average natural gas prices; US average fuel oilprices; and US average electric utility natural gas T and D margin in dollars Mcf.

In recent years, the price of oil has driven large fluctuations in the price of diesel fuel, which is an important cost component in freight logistics. This thesis explores the impact of fuel price volatility on supply ...

This dissertation investigates the pricing behaviors of two major energy commodities, U.S. natural gas and crude oil, using times series models. It examines the relationships between U.S. natural gas price variations and changes in market...

This dissertation investigates the pricing behaviors of two major energy commodities, U.S. natural gas and crude oil, using times series models. It examines the relationships between U.S. natural gas price variations and changes in market...

the market calls for. PULPWOOD: Pulpwood prices depend on the global demand for paper products of amajor pulp and paper mill in New York. FIREWOOD: Demand for firewood in New England depends on the price of fossil fuels,particularly No.2fuel oil. (The price of firewood rises as fuel oilprices in

This study examines the impact of oilprice shocks on output fluctuations of several oil-exporting economies. In most studies of business cycles, the role of oilprice is ignored; the few studies that use oilprice as one of the variables in the system focus on modeling oil-importing economies. The vector autoregression (VAR) technique is used to consider the cases of Norway, Nigeria, and Mexico. Both atheoretical and structural' VARs are estimated to determine the importance of oilprice impulses on output variations. The study reports two types of results: variance decomposition and impulse response functions, with particular emphasis on the issues of stationarity and co-integration among the series. The empirical results suggest that shocks to oilprice are important in explaining output variations. In most cases, shocks to oilprice are shown to explain more than 20% of the forecast variance of output over a 40-quarter horizon.

Using a custom 3-Cerenkov ring fitter, we report cross sections for ??-induced charged-current single ?? production on mineral oil (CH?) from a sample of 5810 candidate events with 57% signal purity over an energy range of 0.5–2.0 GeV. This includes measurements of the absolute total cross section as a function of neutrino energy, and flux-averaged differential cross sections measured in terms of Q², ?? kinematics, and ?? kinematics. The sample yields a flux-averaged total cross section of (9.2±0.3stat±1.5syst)×10?³? cm²/CH² at mean neutrino energy of 0.965 GeV.

. Figure C-1 illustrates this for world oilprices, and similar patterns apply to natural gas. The last. Figure C-1 World OilPrices Have Been Following the 1991 Plan Low Forecast 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25 and earlier Council plans, natural gas prices were dependent on the assumptions about world oilprices

a pumping station p and a receiving station r. Further, to minimize the possibility that pipe repairs route, and each will have two intermediate pumping stations, n1 and n2 on the northern route and s1 restriction on the size of underground pipes. Thus, the amount of oil we can pump on any section

a pumping station p and a receiving station r. Further, to minimize the possibility that pipe repairs route, and each will have two intermediate pumping stations, n 1 and n 2 on the northern route and s 1 restriction on the size of underground pipes. Thus, the amount of oil we can pump on any section

in Borneo under threat of conversion to palm oil plantations could be more profitable left standing threat of being converted to oil palm plantations. "They are not meant to be clearing forest for palm oil development. It's pretty clear that forests are being felled for oil palm," said Venter, a conservation

Timely observation on prices of gasoline at the wholesale and retail level by geographical area can serve several purposes: (1) to facilitate the monitoring of compliance with controls on distributor margins; (2) to indicate changes in the competitive structure of the distribution system; (3) to measure the incidence of changes in crude oil and refiner costs on retail prices by grade of gasoline, by type of retail outlet, and by geographic area; (4) to identify anomalies in the retail pricing structure that may create incentives for misfueling; and (5) to provide detailed time series data for use in evaluating conservation response to price changes. In order to provide the needed data for these purposes, the following detail on gasoline prices and characteristics of the sampling procedure appear to be appropriate: (1) monthly sample observations on wholesale and retail prices by gasoline grade and type of wholesale or retail dealer, together with volume weights; (2) sample size sufficient to provide detail by state and large cities; (3) responses to be tabulated and reports provided within 30 days after date of observation; and (4) a quick response sampling procedure that can provide weekly data, at least at the national level, when needed in time of rapidly changing prices. Price detail by state is suggested due to its significance for administrative purposes and since gasoline consumption data are estimated by state from other sources. Price detail for large cities are suggested in view of their relevancy as problem areas for vehicle emissions, reflecting one of the analytical uses of the data. In this report, current reporting systems and data on gasoline prices are reviewed and evaluated in terms of the needs outlined above. Recommendations are made for ways to fill the gaps in existing data systems to meet these needs.

Three interacting market models are considered as models for intraurban retail price variation for a single homogenous good, price-posted gasoline. Modifications include spatial markets instead of interacting economic sectors and supply functions independent of price levels in other markets. The final section discusses the results of fitting one of the models to gasoline data for the city of Sheffield during a period of intensifying price competition in the first quarter of 1982. It is concluded, with respect to gasoline price modeling, both independent and interacting market models exist but at different intraurban scales. 15 references, 1 figure, 1 table.

of crude oil, gasoline, corn, and ethanol prices, as well as, the relative foreign exchange rate of the U.S. dollar and producer price indexes for food manufacturing and fuel products on domestic food prices are examined. Because the data series are non...

of crude oil, gasoline, corn, and ethanol prices, as well as, the relative foreign exchange rate of the U.S. dollar and producer price indexes for food manufacturing and fuel products on domestic food prices are examined. Because the data series are non...

NOTE: International Finance Discussion Papers are preliminary materials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment. References in publications to International Finance Discussion Papers (other than an acknowledgment that the writer has had access to unpublished material) should be cleared with the author or authors. Recent IFDPs are available on the Web at www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/. This paper can be downloaded without charge from Social

Cheese prices are derived from the USDA Agricultural Marketing Service Market News, the National Agricultural Statistics Service, and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. This publication explains the process of cheese pricing. It includes information...

of the 1990s oilprices have been steadily increasing, reflecting rising demand for crude oil, particularly costs, and reserves (Pindyck, 1999). Supply and demand remain the main factors determining oilprices. More precisely, oil demands depend on oil consumption by developed and developing countries, and oil

The program objectives were: (1) determine the technical, economic, operational, and environmental feasibility of solar thermal enhanced oil recovery using line focusing distributed collectors at Exxon's Edison Field, and (2) estimate the quantity of solar heat which might be applied to domestic enhanced oil recovery. This volume of the report summarizes all of the work done under the contract Statement of Work. Topics include the selection of the solar system, trade-off studies, preliminary design for steam raising, cost estimate for STEOR at Edison Field, the development plan, and a market and economics analysis. (WHK)

Propane prices and No. 2 fuel prices during the 1994-1995 heating season are tabulated for the state of Ohio. Nineteen companies were included in the telephone survey of propane prices, and twenty two companies for the fuel oilprices. A bar graph is also presented for average residential prices of No. 2 heating oil.

Using daily futures price data, I examine the behavior of natural gas and crude oilprice volatility since 1990. I test whether there has been a significant trend in volatility, whether there was a short-term increase in ...

Balancing Oil and Environment…Responsibly As the price of oil continues to skyrocket and global oil production nears the brink, pursuing unconventional oil supplies, such as oil shale, oil sands, heavy oils, and oils from biomass and coal has become increasingly attractive. Of particular significance to the American way is that our continent has significant quantities of these resources. Tapping into these new resources, however, requires cutting-edge technologies for identification, production, processing and environmental management. This job needs a super hero or two for a job of this size and proportion…

price shocks and economic downturns. Over the next 30 years oil demand is expected to grow by 60Energy Policy 34 (2006) 515­531 Have we run out of oil yet? Oil peaking analysis from an optimist of conventional oil production from an optimist's perspective. Is the oil peak imminent? What is the range

Fisheries, through its Market Development Branch, has contracted with the Bureau of Labor Statistics prices. P repared in the Bureau of Commercial Fisheries Branch of Market Development #12;United States - September 1958 CONTENTS TUNA, CANNED : Page --------------- White Meat Tuna Or Albacore, Solid Pack, In Oil

The hypothesis of this paper is that crude oil, like any other unfinished commodity, is valued for the products derived from it; the purpose is to offer an empirical explanation for changes in the crude price charged by the members of OPEC. The model results show that the market-clearing prices reported to prevail for petroleum products on the principal petroleum spot market at Rotterdam are the primary determinants of changes in official crude prices. A systematic relationship between offical and spot prices is argued to have prevailed since 1974. An appendix clarifies five types of data required for the model. 13 references, 4 tables.

Soaring oilprices have drawn attention to the issue of the relative supply and demand for crude oil1 THE RIMINI PROTOCOL an Oil Depletion Protocol ~ Heading Off Economic Chaos and Political Conflict During the Second Half of the Age of Oil As proposed at the 2003 Pio Manzu Conference

to the invest in an oil field. Like most commodities, oilprices tend to mean-revert, and as a direct result the value of investment in an oil field is also mean-reverting. Consequently, it would not be appropriateReal Option Pricing with Mean-Reverting Investment and Project Value October 1st, 2009 #12;Abstract

is the valuation of the option to the invest in an oil field. Like most commodities, oilprices tend to mean-revert, and as a direct result the value of investment in an oil field is also mean-reverting. Consequently, it wouldReal Option Pricing with Mean-Reverting Investment and Project Value Sebastian Jaimungal , Max

. In addition, the delivered price of coal to power plants located in the region will be affected by diesel fuel The Fifth Power Plan includes price forecasts for natural gas, oil, and coal. Natural gas prices have by far costs for trains that deliver coal to the plants. Recent higher prices for coal are partially related

Charged current single pion production (CC{pi}{sup +}) and charged current quasi-elastic scattering (CCQE) are the most abundant interaction types for neutrinos at energies around 1 GeV, a region of great interest to oscillation experiments. The cross-sections for these processes, however, are not well understood in this energy range. This dissertation presents a measurement of the ratio of CC{pi}{sup +} to CCQE cross-sections for muon neutrinos on mineral oil (CH{sub 2}) in the MiniBooNE experiment. The measurement is presented here both with and without corrections for hadronic re-interactions in the target nucleus and is given as a function of neutrino energy in the range 0.4 GeV < E{sub {nu}} < 2.4 GeV. With more than 46,000 CC{pi}{sup +} events collected in MiniBooNE, and with a fractional uncertainty of roughly 11% in the region of highest statistics, this measurement represents a dramatic improvement in statistics and precision over previous CC{pi}{sup +} and CCQE measurements.

This document reports the findings and implementation recommendations of the Price Reasonableness Working Group to the Federal ESPC Steering Committee. The working group was formed to address concerns of agencies and oversight organizations related to pricing and fair and reasonable price determination in federal energy savings performance contracts (ESPCs). This report comprises the working group's recommendations and is the proposed draft of a training curriculum on fair and reasonable price determination for users of federal ESPCs. The report includes: (1) A review of federal regulations applicable to determining price reasonableness of federal ESPCs (section 2), (2) Brief descriptions of the techniques described in Federal Acquisition Regulations (FAR) 15.404-1 and their applicability to ESPCs (section 3), and (3) Recommended strategies and procedures for cost-effectively completing price reasonableness determinations (sections 4). Agencies have struggled with fair and reasonable price determinations in their ESPCs primarily because this alternative financing vehicle is relatively new and relatively rare in the federal sector. The methods of determining price reasonableness most familiar to federal contracting officers (price competition based on the government's design and specifications, in particular) are generally not applicable to ESPCs. The regulatory requirements for determining price reasonableness in federal ESPCs have also been misunderstood, as federal procurement professionals who are inexperienced with ESPCs are further confused by multiple directives, including Executive Order 13123, which stresses life-cycle cost-effectiveness. Uncertainty about applicable regulations and inconsistent practice and documentation among agencies have fueled claims that price reasonableness determinations have not been sufficiently rigorous in federal ESPCs or that the prices paid in ESPCs are generally higher than the prices paid for similar goods and services obtained through conventional procurements. While claims of excessive prices are largely unsubstantiated and based on anecdotal evidence, the perception that there is a problem is shared by many in the ESPC community and has been noted by auditors and oversight organizations. The Price Reasonableness Working Group determined that a more formal emphasis on FAR 15.404-1 in the ESPC process could remove much of the doubt about price reasonableness determinations. The working group's recommended consensus policy on price reasonableness stresses the price analysis techniques described in the FAR that are applicable to ESPCs and includes guidance for agencies use of these techniques in determining price reasonableness for their ESPC delivery orders. The recommended policy and guidance, if communicated to federal ESPC stakeholders, can ensure that agencies will comply with the FAR in awarding ESPCs, obtain fair and reasonable prices and best value for the government, and follow procedures that provide auditable documentation of due diligence in price reasonableness determinations.

a nonlinear model to investigate the relationship between oil-price shock and economic growth in Japan the dynamic behavior of crude-oilprices for the period 1997-2008. Using data from four countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council, we find evidence of short-term pre- dictability in oil-price changes over time, except

-varying volatility of gasoline price disturbances is an important feature of the data, and when we allow for asymmetric GARCH errors and investigate the system wide impulse response function, we find evidence of asymmetric adjustment to crude oilprice changes...

This study presents an analysis of several recently published methods for quantifying the uncertainty in economic evaluations due to uncertainty in future oilprices. Conventional price forecasting methods used in the industry typically...

This study presents an analysis of several recently published methods for quantifying the uncertainty in economic evaluations due to uncertainty in future oilprices. Conventional price forecasting methods used in the industry typically...

Gasoline markets in 1996 and 1997 provided several spectacular examples of petroleum market dynamics. The first occurred in spring 1996, when tight markets, following a long winter of high demand, resulted in rising crude oilprices just when gasoline prices exhibit their normal spring rise ahead of the summer driving season. Rising crude oilprices again pushed gasoline prices up at the end of 1996, but a warm winter and growing supplies weakened world crude oil markets, pushing down crude oil and gasoline prices during spring 1997. The 1996 and 1997 spring markets provided good examples of how crude oilprices can move gasoline prices both up and down, regardless of the state of the gasoline market in the United States. Both of these spring events were covered in prior Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports. As the summer of 1997 was coming to a close, consumers experienced yet another surge in gasoline prices. Unlike the previous increase in spring 1996, crude oil was not a factor. The late summer 1997 price increase was brought about by the supply/demand fundamentals in the gasoline markets, rather than the crude oil markets. The nature of the summer 1997 gasoline price increase raised questions regarding production and imports. Given very strong demand in July and August, the seemingly limited supply response required examination. In addition, the price increase that occurred on the West Coast during late summer exhibited behavior different than the increase east of the Rocky Mountains. Thus, the Petroleum Administration for Defense District (PADD) 5 region needed additional analysis (Appendix A). This report is a study of this late summer gasoline market and some of the important issues surrounding that event.

According to the standard analysis of commodity prices, stockpiling is a necessary signature of speculation. This paper develops an approach suggesting that speculation may temporarily push crude oilprices above the level ...

This thesis compares the simple Autoregressive (AR) model against the k- Nearest Neighbor (k-NN) model to make a point forecast of five energy commodity prices. Those commodities are natural gas, heating oil, gasoline, ethanol, and crude oil...

This thesis compares the simple Autoregressive (AR) model against the k- Nearest Neighbor (k-NN) model to make a point forecast of five energy commodity prices. Those commodities are natural gas, heating oil, gasoline, ethanol, and crude oil...

It is often noted that energy prices are quite volatile, reflecting market participants' adjustments to new information from physical energy markets and/or markets in energy-related financial derivatives. Price volatility is an indication of the level of uncertainty, or risk, in the market. This paper describes how markets price risk and how the marketclearing process for risk transfer can be used to generate "price bands" around observed futures prices for crude oil, natural gas, and other commodities.

Rapid increases in oilprices in 2008 led some to call for special taxes on the oil industry. Because oil is an exhaustible resource, however, the effects of excise taxes on production or on reported producer profits may ...

that figure by the current production rate of about 23.6 Gbo a year might suggest that crude oil could remain dependence on cheap crude oil. Prices first tripled in re- sponse to an Arab embargo and then nearly doubled of readily accessible crude oil (so-called conventional oil). The five Middle Eastern members of the Orga

The effects of Federal refined-product price controls upon the price of motor gasoline in the United States through 1977 are examined. A comparison of domestic and foreign gasoline prices is made, based on the prices of products actually moving in international trade. There is also an effort to ascribe US/foreign market price differentials to identifiable cost factors. Primary emphasis is on price comparisons at the wholesale level, although some retail comparisons are presented. The study also examines the extent to which product price controls are binding, and attempts to estimate what the price of motor gasoline would have been in the absence of controls. The time period under consideration is from 1969 through 1977, with primary focus on price relationships in 1970-1971 (just before US controls) and 1976-1977. The foreign-domestic comparisons are made with respect to four major US cities, namely, Boston, New York, New Orleans, and Los Angeles. 20 figures, 14 tables.

economy. Commodity prices are key economical20 drivers in the market. Raw products such as oil, gold 15 1 Introduction16 17 1.1 Forecasting the commodities market18 The commodities market focuses of prices in both the short and long-term view25 point to help market participants gage a greater

I examine the long-run behavior of oil, coal, and natural gas prices, using up to 127 years of data, and address the following questions: What does over a century of data tell us about the stochastic dynamics of price ...

of livers with respect to oil content and vitamin A potency · · Relationship of oil content and vitamin A by molecular dietillation · Concentration of vitamin A by saponification · Vitamin-oil specifications, pricesQY THE FISH LIVER OIL INDUSTRY FISH ERY LEAFLET 233 FISH AND WILDLIFE SERVICE United States

NATCOR - Xpress case study Margaret Oil produces three products: gasoline, jet fuel, and heating oil. To produce these products, Margaret purchases crude oil at a price of £11 per barrel. Each day to produce gasoline or jet fuel. Distilled oil can be used to produce all three products. The octane level

This report presents a statistical analysis of future prices of petroleum products for use in predicting the monthly average retail price of kerosene-type jet fuel. The method of least squares was employed to examine the relationship between kerosene-type jet fuel retail prices and energy futures prices. Regression equations were constructed for four of the petroleum commodities traded on the energy futures market: heating oil No. 2, leaded regular gasoline, crude oil, and unleaded gasoline. Thirty-nine regression equations were estimated by the method of least squares to relate the cash price of kerosene-type jet fuel to the futures prices of the above four petroleum commodities for contract periods of 1 to 12 months. The analysis revealed that 19 of the 39 first-order linear regression equations provided a good fit to the data. Specifically, heating oil No. 2 performed better than the order energy futures in predicting the price of kerosene-type jet fuel. The only information required to use these regression equations are energy futures prices which are available daily from the Wall Street Journal. 5 refs., 4 tabs.

This report examines a recurring question about gasoline markets: why, especially in times of high price volatility, do retail gasoline prices seem to rise quickly but fall back more slowly? Do gasoline prices actually rise faster than they fall, or does this just appear to be the case because people tend to pay more attention to prices when they`re rising? This question is more complex than it might appear to be initially, and it has been addressed by numerous analysts in government, academia and industry. The question is very important, because perceived problems with retail gasoline pricing have been used in arguments for government regulation of prices. The phenomenon of prices at different market levels tending to move differently relative to each other depending on direction is known as price asymmetry. This report summarizes the previous work on gasoline price asymmetry and provides a method for testing for asymmetry in a wide variety of situations. The major finding of this paper is that there is some amount of asymmetry and pattern asymmetry, especially at the retail level, in the Midwestern states that are the focus of the analysis. Nevertheless, both the amount asymmetry and pattern asymmetry are relatively small. In addition, much of the pattern asymmetry detected in this and previous studies could be a statistical artifact caused by the time lags between price changes at different points in the gasoline distribution system. In other words, retail gasoline prices do sometimes rise faster than they fall, but this is largely a lagged market response to an upward shock in the underlying wholesale gasoline or crude oilprices, followed by a return toward the previous baseline. After consistent time lags are factored out, most apparent asymmetry disappears.

Marine oil shale from the Shenglihe oil shale section in the Qiangtang basin, northern Tibet, China, was dated by the Re-Os technique using Carius Tube digestion, Os distillation, Re extraction by acetone and ICP-MS measure-ment. An isochron was obtained giving an age of 101±24 Ma with an initial

Oil shale is undoubtedly an excellent energy source that has great abundance and world-wide distribution. Oil shale industries have seen ups and downs over more than 100 years, depending on the availability and price of conventional petroleum crudes. Market forces as well as environmental factors will greatly affect the interest in development of oil shale. Besides competing with conventional crude oil and natural gas, shale oil will have to compete favorably with coal-derived fuels for similar markets. Crude shale oil is obtained from oil shale by a relatively simple process called retorting. However, the process economics are greatly affected by the thermal efficiencies, the richness of shale, the mass transfer effectiveness, the conversion efficiency, the design of retort, the environmental post-treatment, etc. A great many process ideas and patents related to the oil shale pyrolysis have been developed; however, relatively few field and engineering data have been published. Due to the vast heterogeneity of oil shale and to the complexities of physicochemical process mechanisms, scientific or technological generalization of oil shale retorting is difficult to achieve. Dwindling supplied of worldwide petroleum reserves, as well as the unprecedented appetite of mankind for clean liquid fuel, has made the public concern for future energy market grow rapidly. the clean coal technology and the alternate fuel technology are currently of great significance not only to policy makers, but also to process and chemical researchers. In this book, efforts have been made to make a comprehensive text for the science and technology of oil shale utilization. Therefore, subjects dealing with the terminological definitions, geology and petrology, chemistry, characterization, process engineering, mathematical modeling, chemical reaction engineering, experimental methods, and statistical experimental design, etc. are covered in detail.

The Utah Heavy Oil Program (UHOP) was established in June 2006 to provide multidisciplinary research support to federal and state constituents for addressing the wide-ranging issues surrounding the creation of an industry for unconventional oil production in the United States. Additionally, UHOP was to serve as an on-going source of unbiased information to the nation surrounding technical, economic, legal and environmental aspects of developing heavy oil, oil sands, and oil shale resources. UHOP fulGilled its role by completing three tasks. First, in response to the Energy Policy Act of 2005 Section 369(p), UHOP published an update report to the 1987 technical and economic assessment of domestic heavy oil resources that was prepared by the Interstate Oil and Gas Compact Commission. The UHOP report, entitled 'A Technical, Economic, and Legal Assessment of North American Heavy Oil, Oil Sands, and Oil Shale Resources' was published in electronic and hard copy form in October 2007. Second, UHOP developed of a comprehensive, publicly accessible online repository of unconventional oil resources in North America based on the DSpace software platform. An interactive map was also developed as a source of geospatial information and as a means to interact with the repository from a geospatial setting. All documents uploaded to the repository are fully searchable by author, title, and keywords. Third, UHOP sponsored Give research projects related to unconventional fuels development. Two projects looked at issues associated with oil shale production, including oil shale pyrolysis kinetics, resource heterogeneity, and reservoir simulation. One project evaluated in situ production from Utah oil sands. Another project focused on water availability and produced water treatments. The last project considered commercial oil shale leasing from a policy, environmental, and economic perspective.

of political activity on pharmaceutical prices, focusing on the health care reform period. We characterize health care reform discussions in 1993, large-scale efforts to curb drug prices were debated and seemed everywhere from the Catastrophic Health Insurance Bill to proposals for Medicare coverage of drugs. During

The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--1990 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world's dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oilprices. The model results guided the group's thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.

The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--90 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world's dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oilprices. The model results guided the group's thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.

The Long-Run Relationship between Money, Nominal GDP, and the Price Level in Venezuela: 1950 that structural breaks may be important. Since the economy depends heavily on oil revenue, oilprice shocks have whether a significant long-run relationship exists between money and nominal GDP and between money

Spot pricing covers a range of electric utility pricing structures which relate the marginal costs of electric generation to the prices seen by utility customers. At the shortest time frames prices change every five ...

There are several value-based fed cattle pricing systems, including formula pricing, price grids and alliances. This publication describes the different cattle pricing methods and helps you decide which is best for you....

that there is a pronounced negative relationship between a country's political openness and the short-run volatility in oil shifts in oil demand or supply affect prices (see, for example, Hamilton (2009a) for a recent assessmentCursed Resources? Political Conditions and Oil Market Volatility* Gilbert E. Metcalf Tufts

The authors present an analysis of the year 1988 in the Canadian oil and gas industry. With budgets underpinned by price expectations of $17/bbl to $18/bbl for WTI crude, optimism pervaded industry at the beginning of the year. Budget plans called for total spending of some C$7.6 billion, an increase of 25% over the C$6.1 invested in 1987. Drilling plans would have made 1988 the fourth best year on record with total well completions close to the 9,000-well mark. The year started strongly, as prices performed close to expectations. When prices began to soften and no reversal was apparent, corporate expenditures began to be adjusted in the second half.

During the peak oilprice period of the 1970s and the first half of the 1980s, 12 major oil firms decided to diversify into the geothermal energy business under the assumption that they could easily leverage their upstream ...

One important effect of price shocks in the United States has been increased political attention paid to the structure and performance of oil and natural gas markets, along with some governmental support for energy conservation. This paper describes how price changes helped lead the emergence of a political agenda accompanied by several interventions, as revealed through Granger causality tests on change in the legislative agenda.

Prompted by the contemporaneous spike in coal, oil, and natural gas prices, this paper evaluates the degree of market integration both within and between crude oil, coal, and natural gas markets. Our approach yields parameters that can be readily tested against a priori conjectures. Using daily price data for five very different crude oils, we conclude that the world oil market is a single, highly integrated economic market. On the other hand, coal prices at five trading locations across the United States are cointegrated, but the degree of market integration is much weaker, particularly between Western and Eastern coals. Finally, we show that crude oil, coal, and natural gas markets are only very weakly integrated. Our results indicate that there is not a primary energy market. Despite current price peaks, it is not useful to think of a primary energy market, except in a very long run context.

MiniBooNE reports the first absolute cross sections for neutral current single \\pi^0 production on CH_2 induced by neutrino and antineutrino interactions measured from the largest sets of NC \\pi^0 events collected to date. The principal result consists of differential cross sections measured as functions of \\pi^0 momentum and \\pi^0 angle averaged over the neutrino flux at MiniBooNE. We find total cross sections of (4.76+/-0.05_{stat}+/-0.76_{sys})*10^{-40} cm^2/nucleon at a mean energy of =808 MeV and (1.48+/-0.05_{stat}+/-0.23_{sys})*10^{-40} cm^2/nucleon at a mean energy of =664 MeV for \

The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Oil and Gas Supply Model (OGSK, to describe the model`s basic approach, and to provide detail on how the model works. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public. It is prepared in accordance with the Energy Information Administration`s (EIA) legal obligation to provide adequate documentation in support of its statistical and forecast reports (Public Law 93-275, Section 57(b)(2). OGSM is a comprehensive framework with which to analyze oil and gas supply potential and related issues. Its primary function is to produce forecast of crude oil, natural gas production, and natural gas imports and exports in response to price data received endogenously (within NEMS) from the Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model (NGTDM) and the Petroleum Market Model (PMM). To accomplish this task, OGSM does not provide production forecasts per se, but rather parameteres for short-term domestic oil and gas production functions and natural gas import functions that reside in PMM and NGTDM.

This study utilizes existing data sources and previous analyses of state-level energy prices to develop consistent state-level energy prices series by fuel type and by end-use sector. The fuels are electricity, natural gas, coal, distillate fuel oil, motor gasoline, diesel, kerosene, jet fuel, residual fuel, and liquefied petroleum gas. The end-use sectors are residential, commercial, industrial, transportation, and electric utility. Based upon an evaluation of existing data sources, recommendations were formulated on the feasible approaches for developing a consistent state energy price series. The data series were compiled based upon the approaches approved after a formal EIA review. Detailed documentation was provided, including annual updating procedures. Recommendations were formulated for future improvements in the collection of data or in data processing. Generally, the geographical coverage includes the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Information on state-level energy use was generally taken from the State Energy Data System (SEDS). Corresponding average US prices are also developed using volumes reported in SEDS. To the extent possible, the prices developed are quantity weighted average retail prices. Both a Btu price series and a physical unit price series are developed for each fuel. The period covered by the data series is 1970 through 1980 for most fuels, though prices for electricity and natural gas extend back to 1960. (PSB)

We develop a structural model of the global market for crude oil that for the first time explicitly allows for shocks to the speculative demand for oil as well as shocks to the flow demand and flow supply. The forward-looking element of the real price of oil is identified with the help of data on oil inventories. The model estimates rule out explanations of the 2003-08 oilprice surge based on unexpectedly diminishing oil supplies and based on speculative trading. Instead, we find that this surge was caused by fluctuations in the flow demand for oil driven by the global business cycle. There is evidence, however, that speculative demand shifts played an important role during earlier oilprice shock episodes including 1979, 1986, and 1990. We also show that, even after accounting for the role of inventories in smoothing oil consumption, our estimate of the short-run price elasticity of oil demand is much higher than traditional estimates from dynamic models that do not account for price endogeneity. We conclude that additional regulation of oil markets would not have prevented the 2003-08 oilprice surge.

When oilprices rise, politicians often call for improvements in energy efficiency or policies that they hope will make the U.S. more “energy independent.” The argument is that if we consume less oil, domestic supplies will constitute a larger...

2008 Abstract The relationship between gasoline prices and the demand for vehicle fuel efficiencyAutomobile Prices, Gasoline Prices, and Consumer Demand for Fuel Economy Ashley Langer University evidence that automobile manufacturers set vehicle prices as if consumers respond to gasoline prices. We

The Arab oil embargo of 1973 awakened the world to the reality of energy shortages and higher fuel prices. Agriculture in the United States is highly mechanized and thus energy intensive. This study seeks to develop an evaluative capability...

The sharp increases in crude oilprices in the 1970`s unleashed a gusher of economic and policy analyses concerning energy security. A consensus emerged concerning the desirability of building and using a large stock of oil to cushion the effects of a sudden loss of oil supply. The author examines the validity of this large stock of oil considering changes in the oil market and whether the oil holdings of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve should be privatized. 12 refs.

The research for the initial Naval Petroleum Reserve No. 2 (NPR-2), study Task Assignment 010, showed the possibility of undeveloped proved reserves in the Shallow Pool on Government leases. Task Assignment 010C included a study to confirm or disprove the possibility. The six-section area, which is highlighted on Exhibit M-2, was chosen as the area for specific study of this subject. The Shallow Oil Zone, as depicted on Exhibit S-1, was the focal point of the study in the area. Competitive development of Government land with adjacent privately held land is an issue which has often been raised regarding NPR-2; however, it has never been formally addressed. Task Assignment 010C commissioned a study of the subject in the same six-section area designated for the study of proved undeveloped reserves. The producing formations in the Buena Vista Field of NPR-2 are very similar to the producing formations in the Elk Hills Field of NPR-1 to the north. It is possible that some of the successful development techniques utilized in NPR-2 by the various operators might enhance production efficiency at NPR-1. Task Assignment 010C included a detailed task of researching techniques used in NPR-2 for possible application in NPR-1. Because the detailed tasks of Task Assignment 010C are divergent in scope, a composite summary of the study's research is not included in this report. Each task's research is detailed in a separate Discussion section. Exhibits for these discussions are contained in an Exhibit section at the end of this volume. The appendices include: task assignment; DOE letters to lessees; Evans, Carey and Crozier letters to lessees; reports and studies from lessees; core analysis data; production data; geologic picks of formation tops; and annotated well logs. 22 figs., 6 tabs.

DOE intends to update the SSL Pricing and Efficacy Trend Analysis for Utility Program Planning report on an annual basis, but doing so requires that we have sufficient product and purchase data including acquisition date, purchase price, product category, and rated initial lumens. Those interested in helping collect this data are asked to use the LED Price Tracking FormMicrosoft Excel and follow the instructions for submitting data.

Certificate of Current Cost or Pricing Data UT-B Contracts Div Dec 2005 Page 1 of 1 cert-ccpd-ext-venx-dec05.doc CERTIFICATE OF CURRENT COST OR PRICING DATA (Dec 2005) This is to certify that, to the best of my knowledge and belief, the cost or pricing data (as defined in section 2.101 of the Federal

that number by the index of the future month for which the price forecast is being determined. For example, if June Amarillo direct fed cattle prices averaged $64 per hun- dredweight (cwt.), the forecast for October would be $64 divided by 97.12, multiplied... by 99.04 = $65.27 per cwt. Adjusting for the vari- ability suggests that there is a 68 percent proba- bility that the October monthly average price would fall between $70.67 cwt. and $59.87 cwt. Seasonal Price Index for Amarillo Direct Fed Steers...

The State Energy Price and Expenditure Report (SEPER) presents energy price and expenditure estimates for the 50 States, the District of Columbia, and the United States. The estimates are provided by energy source (e.g., petroleum, natural gas, coal, and electricity) and by major consuming or economic sector. This report is an update of the State Energy Price and Expenditure Report 1988 published in September 1990. Changes from the last report are summarized in a section of the documentation. Energy price and expenditure estimates are published for the years 1970, 1975, 1980, and 1985 through 1989. Documentation follows the tables and describes how the price estimates are developed, including sources of data, methods of estimation, and conversion factors applied. Consumption estimates used to calculate expenditures, and the documentation for those estimates, are from the State Energy Data Report, Consumption Estimates, 1960--1989 (SEDR), published in May 1991. Expenditures are calculated by multiplying the price estimates by the consumption estimates, adjusted to remove process fuel and intermediate product consumption. All expenditures are consumer expenditures, that is, they represent estimates of money directly spent by consumers to purchase energy, generally including taxes. 11 figs., 43 tabs.

, in markets like money, stock or oil markets; sometimes they are rather lengthy, in markets like the steelBuying in a volatile market: variable or fixed price? Jan Telgen Professor of Purchasing Management Many commodities are bought in a volatile market, where the purchasing price changes constantly

­ unbridled population growth, oilprice fluctuations, importation policies, water availability and political prices indicating the importance of investment in irrigation to increase the food yield and thus, address problems in Africa, however, it is recommended to increase government investment on local agriculture

depends on the current crude oil market price and expectations concerning price movements. Although markets is to compute an expected value of such contracts as a basis for trading decisions. The Cox, Ross and Rubinstein (CRR) binomial tree model is a popular discrete approach to such compu- tations, which requires

, he can Mark Waller, Steve Amosson, Mark Welch, and Kevin Dhuyvetter* 2 lock in a floor price and still have upside poten- tial if the market rallies. Options-based marketing strategies, such as the minimum price contract, work well in times...

The objective of the present spot pricing study carried out for SCE and PG&E is to develop the concepts which wculd lead to an experimental design for spot pricing in the two utilities. The report suggests a set of experiments ...

as Hidden Markov Models (HMM). We apply the model to monthly return data for three oil industry corporation expected returns on capital assets investments with ex- pected market returns. Under the model, the returnA Two State Capital Asset Pricing Model Moshe Fridman Institute for Mathematics and its

Market share OPEC lost in defending higher prices from 1979-1985 is being steadily regained and is projected to exceed 50% by 2000. World oil markets are likely to be as vulnerable to monopoly influence as they were 20 years ago, as OPEC regains lost market share. The U.S. economy appears to be as exposed as it was in the early 1970s to losses from monopoly oilpricing. A simulated 2-year supply reduction in 2005-6 boosts OPEC revenues by roughly half a trillion dollars and costs the U.S. economy an approximately equal amount. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve appears to be of little benefit against such a determined, multi-year supply curtailment either in reducing OPEC revenues or protecting the U.S. economy. Increasing the price elasticity of oil demand and supply in the U.S. and the rest of the world, however, would be an effective strategy.

This report summarizes the evaluation of the cost price relation between the two fuels. The original scope of work identified three separate categories of effort: Gather and organize available data on the wholesale and retail prices of gasoline at a national level for the past 5 years. Using the data collected in Subtask 1, develop models of pricing practices that aid in explaining retail markups and price differentials for different types and grades of gasoline at different retail outlets in the current gasoline market. Using the data from Subtask 1 and the analysis framework from Subtask 2, analyze the likely range of future retail markups and price differentials for different grades of leaded and unleaded gasoline. The report is organized in a format that is different than suggested by the subtasks outlined above. The first section provides a characterization of the problem - data available to quantify cost and price of the fuels as well as issues that directly affect this relationship. The second section provides a discussion of issues likely to affect this relation in the future. The third section postulates a model that can be used to quantify the relation between fuels, octane levels, costs and prices.

This document presents two estimates of future growth of emerging energy technology in the years 1985, 1990, and 2000 to be used as a basis for conducting Water Resources Council assessments as required by the Nonnuclear Energy Research and Development Act of 1974. The two scenarios are called the high world oilprice (HWOP) and low world oilprice (LWOP) cases. A national-level summary of the ASA tabulations is shown in Appendix A; the scenarios are presented at the ASA level of detail in Appendix B. The two scenarios were generally derived from assumptions of the Second National Energy Plant (NEP II), including estimates of high and low world oilprice cases, growth rate of GNP, and related economic parameters. The overall national energy growth inherent in these assumptions was expressed as a detailed projection of various energy fuel cycles through use of the Fossil-2 model and regionalized through use of the Strategic Environmental Assessment System (SEAS). These scenarios are for the use of regional analysts in examining the availability of water for and the potential impacts of future growth of emerging energy technology in selected river basins of the Nation, as required by Section 13(a).

This volume contains all of the graphic data for Area II which consists of map lines 1660 to 3400 and 5360 to 5780, and tie lines 6100, 6120, and 6160. Due to the large map scale of the presented data (1:62,500), this sub-section was divided into eleven 7-1/2 min quadrant sheets.

For thirty years, dependence on oil has been a significant problem for the United States. Oil dependence is not simply a matter of how much oil we import. It is a syndrome, a combination of the vulnerability of the U.S. economy to higher oilprices and oilprice shocks and a concentration of world oil supplies in a small group of oil producing states that are willing and able to use their market power to influence world oilprices. Although there are vitally important political and military dimensions to the oil dependence problem, this report focuses on its direct economic costs. These costs are the transfer of wealth from the United States to oil producing countries, the loss of economic potential due to oilprices elevated above competitive market levels, and disruption costs caused by sudden and large oilprice movements. Several enhancements have been made to methods used in past studies to estimate these costs, and estimates of key parameters have been updated based on the most recent literature. It is estimated that oil dependence has cost the U.S. economy $3.6 trillion (constant 2000 dollars) since 1970, with the bulk of the losses occurring between 1979 and 1986. However, if oilprices in 2005 average $35-$45/bbl, as recently predicted by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, oil dependence costs in 2005 will be in the range of $150-$250 billion. Costs are relatively evenly divided between the three components. A sensitivity analysis reflecting uncertainty about all the key parameters required to estimate oil dependence costs suggests that a reasonable range of uncertainty for the total costs of U.S. oil dependence over the past 30 years is $2-$6 trillion (constant 2000 dollars). Reckoned in terms of present value using a discount rate of 4.5%, the costs of U.S. oil dependence since 1970 are $8 trillion, with a reasonable range of uncertainty of $5 to $13 trillion.

Oil companies have traditionally favored vertical integration, controlling the flow of oil from the drilling rig through refineries to the gasoline pump. The development of the downstream infrastructure has largely been driven by the retail market, with other fuels often treated as {open_quotes}marginal{close_quotes} businesses that leverage the retail distribution infrastructure. High-margin niche business such as lubricants and bitumen exist, but their volumes are typically small compared to the retail market. Other high-volume businesses such as aviation and heating fuels are closely tied to traded markets and generally have small market margins. Price levels at the retail site are crucial to the profitability of the downstream business. Price levels at European retail stations have historically been high when compared with North American prices, owing to government taxation. Despite the efforts of the oil companies to educate the consumer on what is the real cause of high prices, the oil majors are blamed when fuel prices fall, the consumer often feels as though lower prices had to be forced on the oil companies. Therefore, European consumers are more price sensitive than consumers elsewhere, and in markets which are deregulated on price, oil companies are losing market share to hypermarkets and supermarkets. In the U.S., increases in fuel tax levels are likely to result in a heightened price awareness for the average American, increasing the probability that hypermarkets will also enter the U.S fuels market.

New Demand for Old Food: the U.S. Demand for Olive Oil Bo Xiong, William Matthews, Daniel Sumner, demand for oils differentiated by origin and quality is price-elastic. These olive oils are highly of olive oil and the spread of Mediterranean diet contribute significantly to the rising demand

Dynamic pricing has garnered much interest among regulators and utilities, since it has the potential for lowering energy costs for society. But the deployment of dynamic pricing has been remarkably tepid. The underlying premise is that dynamic pricing is unfair. But the presumption of unfairness in dynamic pricing rests on an assumption of fairness in today's tariffs. (author)

U.S. consumption of olive oil has tripled over the past twenty years, but nearly all olive oil continues to be imported. Estimation of demand parameters using monthly import data reveals that demand for non-virgin oil is income inelastic, but virgin oils have income elasticities above one. Moreover, demand for oils differentiated by origin and quality is price-elastic. These olive oils are highly substitutable with each other but not with other vegetable oils. News about the health and culinary benefits of olive oil and the spread of Mediterranean diet contribute significantly to the rising demand in the United States.

This paper reports that prospects of Angola, free of political complications, are certain to bring a flurry of interest from oil firms and could mean an influx of foreign capital. Licensing will be under production-sharing terms, but incentives may be offered due to increased risks inherent in deeper water. Long term security and stability remain uncertain. In addition to Unita and previously communist MPLA, new factions from 16 years of civil war are gaining support and increasing possibilities for violence. Oil firms consider production-sharing terms high and current price cap clauses keep them from realizing benefits from price increases after contracts are signed. However, geology and exploration successes have overshadowed concerns.

The history of oil shale development was examined by gathering relevant research literature for an Unconventional Oil Resource Repository. This repository contains over 17,000 entries from over 1,000 different sources. The development of oil shale has been hindered by a number of factors. These technical, political, and economic factors have brought about R&D boom-bust cycles. It is not surprising that these cycles are strongly correlated to market crude oilprices. However, it may be possible to influence some of the other factors through a sustained, yet measured, approach to R&D in both the public and private sectors.

The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--1990 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world`s dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oilprices. The model results guided the group`s thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.

The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--90 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world`s dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oilprices. The model results guided the group`s thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.

This year`s review on crude oil and shale oil has been prepared by classifying the references into the following main headings: Hydrocarbon Identification and Characterization, Trace Element Determination, Physical and Thermodynamic Properties, Viscosity, and Miscellaneous Topics. In the two-year review period, the references on shale oils were considerably less in number than those dealing with crude oils. Several new analytical methodologies and applications were reported for hydrocarbon characterization and trace element determination of crude oils and shale oils. Also included in this review are nine U.S., Canadian British and European patents. 12 refs.

On July 27, 2010, Hess Corporation announced that it had agreed to acquire American Oil & Gas, Inc. in a stock-only transaction worth as much as $488 million (based on Hess' closing price of $53.30/share, anticipated number of newly issued shares, and $30 million credit facility extended to American Oil & Gas prior to closing).

of the FERC or of its Office of Economic Policy. Nodal energy spot prices induce a least-cost dispatch are priced explicitly instead of implicitly through nodal energy price differences. Pricing transmission energy spot market. Even including the hub price, there are fewer CP+Hub prices than zonal prices

UK Oil and Gas Collaborative Doctoral Training Centre For applications. IMPORTANT In section 2 Programme The Oil and Gas projects are all being BOX: PUT Oil and Gas CDT and the name of the project you're interested

After several months of drifting lower in line with declining autumn gasoline prices, tabs for methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) have turned around. There has been no big demand surge, but consumers and traders are beginning to build up inventories in advance of a series of midwinter shutdowns and turnarounds by producers. Spot prices, which dropped as low as 75 cts/gal, have rebounded to 90 cts/gal fob. Eager for a positive glimmer, methanol producers posted a 3-cts/gal increase in contract prices this month. It marks the first upward idea since February. In that time contract prices have dropped 75% from $1.55/gal to 39 cts/gal. A hard winter has hit early in much of the US sending natural gas prices up sharply. At the same time, formaldehyde and acetic acid markets remain firm, and with MTBE rebounding, methanol producers feel entitled to a piece of the action. {open_quotes}I don`t buy into this claim that MTBE demand is up and I don`t think producers can justify even a 3-cts/gal increase,{close_quotes} says one. {open_quotes}There is nothing in the economy to warrant a run-up. Housing starts are weaker, and demand is down at least 80,000 bbl/day with the MTBE shutdown.{close_quotes}

This assessment of the Venezuelan petroleum loss examines two areas. The first part of the analysis focuses on the impact of the loss of Venezuelan crude production on crude oil supply for U.S. refiners who normally run a significant fraction of Venezuelan crude oil. The second part of the analysis looks at the impact of the Venezuelan production loss on crude markets in general, with particular emphasis on crude oil imports, refinery crude oil throughput levels, stock levels, and the changes in price differences between light and heavy crude oils.

on the forecasting models for crude oilprices and the hedging models for gasoline prices, and to study the change in the contemporaneous causal relationship between investors' activities and stock price movements in the Korean stock market. In the first essay...

on the forecasting models for crude oilprices and the hedging models for gasoline prices, and to study the change in the contemporaneous causal relationship between investors' activities and stock price movements in the Korean stock market. In the first essay...

In ''The Ethics of Dynamic Pricing,'' Ahmad Faruqui lays out a case for improved efficiency in using dynamic prices for retail electricity tariffs and addresses various issues about the distributional effects of alternative pricing mechanisms. The principal contrast is between flat or nearly constant energy prices and time-varying prices that reflect more closely the marginal costs of energy and capacity. The related issues of fairness criteria, contracts, risk allocation, cost allocation, means testing, real-time pricing, and ethical policies of electricity market design also must be considered. (author)

is the price of light sweet crude oil futures traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), basedChapter 7 Estimation of Volatility The values of the parameters r, t, St, T, and K used to price the historical, implied, and local volatility models, and refer to [26] for stochastic volatility models. 7

to other mature oil fields to make sound engineering and business decisions. I interpreted the geological structure and stratigaphy of the salt dome oil field. Structure, isopach and cross-sectional maps were constructed. Depositional environments...

Convergence Speed of GARCH Option Price to Diffusion Option Price Jin-Chuan Duan, Yazhen Wang that as the time interval between two consecutive observations shrinks to zero, a properly constructed GARCH model will weakly converge to a bivariate diffusion. Naturally the European option price under the GARCH model

Convergence Speed of GARCH Option Price to Diffusion Option Price Jin-Chuan Duan National constructed GARCH model will weakly converge to a bi- variate diffusion. Naturally the European option price under the GARCH model will also converge to its bivariate diffusion counterpart. This paper investigates

Most US consumers are charged a near-constant retail price for electricity, despite substantial hourly variation in the wholesale market price. This paper evaluates the .rst program to expose residential consumers to hourly ...

Building Room 329, 200 W Packer Ave, Bethlehem, PA 18015, ... of uncertainty motivates the introduction of non-linearities in the demand as a function of price ... of price-response functions, parametrized by a risk sensitivity coefficient, which

: price@bnl.gov ELECTROCHEMICAL ENHANCEMENT OF BIO-ETHANOL AND METABOLITE PRODUCTION Brookhaven National as a manufacturing step in their process to produce bio-ethanol or other commercially used metabolites can implement ApplicationFiled 61/042,867 TECHNOLOGY This method accelerates the production of ethanol and other metabolites

: price@bnl.gov ACTIVATED ALUMINUM HYDRIDE HYDROGEN STORAGE COMPOSITIONS AND USES THEREOF Brookhaven alanates doped with such metal catalysts. Hydrogen is one part of a balanced, strategic portfolio of energy for the U.S. Department of Energy. An activated aluminum hydride (AlH3 ) composition to control

The benefits of the Department of Energy's research and development (R&D) efforts have historically been estimated under business-as-usual market and policy conditions. In recognition of the insurance value of R&D, however, the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) and the Office of Fossil Energy (FE) have been exploring options for evaluating the benefits of their R&D programs under an array of alternative futures. More specifically, an FE-EERE Scenarios Working Group (the Working Group) has proposed to EERE and FE staff the application of an initial set of three scenarios for use in the Working Group's upcoming analyses: (1) a Reference Case Scenario, (2) a High Fuel Price Scenario, which includes heightened natural gas and oilprices, and (3) a Carbon Cap-and-Trade Scenario. The immediate goal is to use these scenarios to conduct a pilot analysis of the benefits of EERE and FE R&D efforts. In this report, the two alternative scenarios being considered by EERE and FE staff--carbon cap-and-trade and high fuel prices--are compared to other scenarios used by energy analysts and utility planners. The report also briefly evaluates the past accuracy of fossil fuel price forecasts. We find that the natural gas prices through 2025 proposed in the FE-EERE Scenarios Working Group's High Fuel Price Scenario appear to be reasonable based on current natural gas prices and other externally generated gas price forecasts and scenarios. If anything, an even more extreme gas price scenario might be considered. The price escalation from 2025 to 2050 within the proposed High Fuel Price Scenario is harder to evaluate, primarily because few existing forecasts or scenarios extend beyond 2025, but, at first blush, it also appears reasonable. Similarly, we find that the oilprices originally proposed by the Working Group in the High Fuel Price Scenario appear to be reasonable, if not conservative, based on: (1) the current forward market for oil, (2) current oilprices, (3) externally generated oilprice forecasts, and (4) the historical difficulty in accurately forecasting oilprices. Overall, a spread between the FE-EERE High OilPrice and Reference scenarios of well over $8/bbl is supported by the literature. We conclude that a wide range of carbon regulation scenarios are possible, especially within the time frame considered by EERE and FE (through 2050). The Working Group's Carbon Cap-and-Trade Scenario is found to be less aggressive than many Kyoto-style targets that have been analyzed, and similar in magnitude to the proposed Climate Stewardship Act. The proposed scenario is more aggressive than some other scenarios found in the literature, however, and ignores carbon banking and offsets and does not allow nuclear power to expand. We are therefore somewhat concerned that the stringency of the proposed carbon regulation scenario in the 2010 to 2025 period will lead to a particularly high estimated cost of carbon reduction. As described in more detail later, we encourage some flexibility in the Working Group's ultimate implementation of the Carbon Cap-and-Trade Scenario. We conclude by identifying additional scenarios that might be considered in future analyses, describing a concern with the proposed specification of the High Fuel Price Scenario, and highlighting the possible difficulty of implementing extreme scenarios with current energy modeling tools.

In this issue, Energy Detente examines near term oilprice and supply prospects. World oilprices have plunged over the last eight weeks to their lowest levels since 1991. This can be attributed to low world oil demand and bearish speculation on world oil markets that the on-again off-again oil export negotiations between Iraq and the United Nations may result in limited amounts of Iraqi crude being added to already swollen oil supplies. To recessionary economics in consuming countries, trends to raise taxes and reduce fuel price subsidies in many countries, and rising costs of environmental protection, producers also scrutinize a concerned Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). OPEC's reactive potentials are heightened in a period of such market uncertainities.

California is unique in the United States because it has the largest heavy oil (10{degrees} to 20{degrees}API gravity) resource, estimated to be in excess of 40 billion barrels. Of the current 941,543 barrels/day of oil produced in California (14% of the U.S. total), 70% or 625,312 barrels/day is heavy oil. Heavy oil constituted only 20% of California`s oil production in the early 1940s, but development of thermal oil production technology in the 1960s allowed the heavy industry to grow and prosper to the point where by the mid-1980s, heavy oil constituted 70% of the state`s oil production. Similar to the rest of the United States, light oil production in the Los Angeles Basin, Coastal Region, and San Joaquin Valley peaked and then declined at different times throughout the past 30 years. Unlike other states, California developed a heavy oil industry that replaced declining light oil production and increased the states total oil production, despite low heavy oilprices, stringent environmental regulations and long and costly delays in developing known oil resources. California`s deep conversion refineries process the nation`s highest sulfur, lowest API gravity crude to make the cleanest transportation fuels available. More efficient vehicles burning cleaner reformulated fuels have significantly reduced the level of ozone precursors (the main contributor to California`s air pollution) and have improved air quality over the last 20 years. In a state where major oil companies dominate, the infrastructure is highly dependent on the 60% of ANS production being refined in California, and California`s own oil production. When this oil is combined with the small volume of imported crude, a local surplus of marketed oil exists that inhibits exploitation of California`s heavy oil resources. As ANS production declines, or if the export restrictions on ANS sales are lifted, a window of opportunity develops for increased heavy oil production.

The sudden quadrupling of world oilprices in 1973-1974 marked the beginning of several formal inquiries by economists into the production behavior of members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). Interest in the organization was further heightened in 1979 when nominal oilprices further doubled. However, oil market analysts have differed in their evaluation of OPEC`s role in the determination of world oilprices. Most energy economists have modeled OPEC as a cartel. Morris Adelman has suggested that OPEC`s true nature lies somewhere between two polar cases of a dominant-firm industry and an imperfect, market-sharing cartel. In the former case, one large, dominant firm (i.e., Saudi Arabia) serves as the {open_quotes}swing producer,{close_quotes} allowing other cartel members and non-OPEC oil producers to produce whatever they wished, controlling the market price by itself through its own output adjustments. The latter case of an imperfect market-sharing cartel is a loose collusive arrangement in which all members agree on an acceptable price level and individual output shares for each producer. Adelman believes that OPEC wobbles between these two cases, depending upon market conditions.

This paper reports on the outlook for the U.S.S.R's oil sector which grows increasingly bleak and with it prospects for the Soviet economy. Plunging Soviet oil production and exports have analysts revising near term oilprice outlooks, referring to the Soviet oil sector's self-destructing and Soviet oil production in a freefall. County NatWest, Washington, citing likely drops in Soviet oil production and exports (OGJ, Aug. 5, p. 16), has jumped its projected second half spot price for West Texas intermediate crude by about $2 to $22-23/bbl. Smith Barney, New York, forecasts WTI postings at $24-25/bbl this winter, largely because of seasonally strong world oil demand and the continued collapse in Soviet oil production. It estimates the call on oil from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries at more than 25 million b/d in first quarter 1992. That would be the highest level of demand for OPEC oil since 1980, Smith Barney noted.

This report is one of a series of publications assessing the feasibility of increasing domestic heavy oil production and is part of a study being conducted for the US Department of Energy. This report summarizes trends in oil production and refining in Canada. Heavy oil (10{degrees} to 20{degrees} API gravity) production in California has increased from 20% of the state's total oil production in the early 1940s to 70% in the late 1980s. In each of the three principal petroleum producing districts (Los Angeles Basin, Coastal Basin, and San Joaquin Valley) oil production has peaked then declined at different times throughout the past 30 years. Thermal production of heavy oil has contributed to making California the largest producer of oil by enhanced oil recovery processes in spite of low oilprices for heavy oil and stringent environmental regulation. Opening of Naval Petroleum Reserve No. 1, Elk Hills (CA) field in 1976, brought about a major new source of light oil at a time when light oil production had greatly declined. Although California is a major petroleum-consuming state, in 1989 the state used 13.3 billion gallons of gasoline or 11.5% of US demand but it contributed substantially to the Nation's energy production and refining capability. California is the recipient and refines most of Alaska's 1.7 million barrel per day oil production. With California production, Alaskan oil, and imports brought into California for refining, California has an excess of oil and refined products and is a net exporter to other states. The local surplus of oil inhibits exploitation of California heavy oil resources even though the heavy oil resources exist. Transportation, refining, and competition in the market limit full development of California heavy oil resources.

This report is one of a series of publications assessing the feasibility of increasing domestic heavy oil production and is part of a study being conducted for the US Department of Energy. This report summarizes trends in oil production and refining in Canada. Heavy oil (10{degrees} to 20{degrees} API gravity) production in California has increased from 20% of the state`s total oil production in the early 1940s to 70% in the late 1980s. In each of the three principal petroleum producing districts (Los Angeles Basin, Coastal Basin, and San Joaquin Valley) oil production has peaked then declined at different times throughout the past 30 years. Thermal production of heavy oil has contributed to making California the largest producer of oil by enhanced oil recovery processes in spite of low oilprices for heavy oil and stringent environmental regulation. Opening of Naval Petroleum Reserve No. 1, Elk Hills (CA) field in 1976, brought about a major new source of light oil at a time when light oil production had greatly declined. Although California is a major petroleum-consuming state, in 1989 the state used 13.3 billion gallons of gasoline or 11.5% of US demand but it contributed substantially to the Nation`s energy production and refining capability. California is the recipient and refines most of Alaska`s 1.7 million barrel per day oil production. With California production, Alaskan oil, and imports brought into California for refining, California has an excess of oil and refined products and is a net exporter to other states. The local surplus of oil inhibits exploitation of California heavy oil resources even though the heavy oil resources exist. Transportation, refining, and competition in the market limit full development of California heavy oil resources.

affect the flow of oil revenues to a rentier state and its ability to manipulate supplies and priceNeo-Rentier Theory: The Case of Saudi Arabia (1950-2000) Global dependence on oil has not only and producing countries. It has left consuming countries exposed to threats of supply disruption and price