imo there are FOUR actresses who could potentially win: Kate Baldwin for Hello, Dolly!; Stephanie J Block for Falsettos; Jenn Colella for Come From Away; and Rachel Bay Jones for Dear Evan Hansen (the only nominee I don’t think has a chance is Mary Beth Peil for Anastasia). I have read strong cases for each of these four actresses to win the Tony award. I am flummoxed, though, and keep changing my prediction! I honestly have no idea who will win! I feel confident in almost all of the categories this year and think I will do well with my predictions but this category is a real head-scratcher! Who do others think will win in this category?

I think if Falsettos was still running, Stephanie J. Block would be a lot more in the conversation, but you have to go all the way back to 1999 when a closed production of a musical won an acting award (which was Martin Short for Little Me).

As for the other three, Rachel Bay Jones has really been putting herself out there with interviews from Broadway Names with Julie James, The Hollywood Reporter, Show People on Broadway.com, and The Theater People Podcast. Though if Tony voters want to give Come From Away something, they could give one to Jenn Colella in this category. If either of those two split the vote, then I guess Kate Baldwin could sneak in and take it.

I’m seriously thinking of changing my prediction to Block in this category. (No guts, no glory!) I know the show is closed, but obviously this cast is highly respected by the Tony community given nods for all of the principals in a competitive year. Plus, Block’s rendition of “I’m Breaking Down” was the single most memorable solo number out of all the numbers in the 11 productions I saw this season, even edging out Platt’s epic “Words Fail”. And she had other choice moments throughout in a meaty role. I can’t get Block out of my head, even though that bitch Jones made me cry with “So Big/So Small” :). I’m thinking there are voters who will feel that same fall carryover.

Colella was great but Book seems the easiest place to award CFA because the central idea is so crisp and solid (though I’d vote DEH).

Please keep in mind that there are only up to 50 people on the nominating committee who see every new show on Broadway during the season. Then, there are 800 or so voters who you know are coming to see all the currently running nominated shows during Tony season. So the real question is were enough Tony voters even able to see Falsettos during its limited run back in the fall?

This also brings me back to five years ago where the most recent revival of Follies already ended its limited run in January of that year, yet was remembered with 8 Tony nominations (including Best Revival of a Musical, as well as four acting nominations). On Tony night, it was only able to win Best Costume Design of a Musical, and nothing else.