Interview with the NW Florida Daily News - Part 3

This is part 3 of an interview I did with the Northwest Florida Daily News of Fort Walton Beach, Florida, that was published on Sunday, May 28. The questions were posed to me by Del Stone Jr., Deputy Managing Editor and self-admitted weather nut. I'll be back to live blogging on June 14.

Q. Dr. William Gray is often quoted in the media for his pre-season storm predictions. Do you have any opinion one way or the other about the accuracy or efficacy of his reports?

A. I like his forecasts, as well as the seasonal hurricane forecasts put out by NOAA. They have some skill, and are valuable for helping determine if a hurricane season will be active or quiet.

Q. In the wake of last year's Hurricane Katrina, you were pointed in your remarks about the Bush administration's response to the storm. Taking into consideration all of the information about that response that has been released since then, has your opinion changed?

A. My criticism of the Bush Administration was primarily aimed at false comments made about the flooding of New Orleans being an unexpected disaster. This was a valid criticism, because this disaster has been expected by virtually everyone who studies hurricanes. I wasn't critical of the bungled response to the disaster, but certainly could have been. I also made a more general criticism of our political system, asking how it is that a nation as wealthy as ours was not able to evacuate the thousands of poor people who had no transportation of their own. I blamed this on the political process in our country where the wealth of one's campaign contributors is our politicians' primary concern, not the welfare of the poor in New Orleans. How is that Mexico, a much poorer country than our own, suffered only four deaths from Hurricane Wilma last year? Recall that Wilma hit the most heavily populated tourist area of Mexico as a Category 4 hurricane, and sat over Cancun for three days. And Hurricane Emily hit Mexico twice, first as a Category 4 at Cozumel, then as a Category 3 near Texas. But no one died in Emily! The difference is that the government of Mexico made a determined effort to evacuate those at risk, and provided transportation. In the U.S., a totally inadequate effort was made--in part, because the people affected were poor and of little concern to the politicians. The City of New Orleans was primarily responsible for coming up with a hurricane evacuation plan, with help from both the state and federal governments. All three branches of govenment failed this responsibility. In fact, a repeat of Katrina is entirely possible--newly re-elected Mayor Nagin has not yet come up with a workable plan to get those without transportation out of New Orleans for the next hurricane. How is it he got re-elected? According to a May 22 article on cnn.com, the bus drivers Nagin wants to use have not yet signed on, and the city has too few buses. The state and federal government are supposed to help out, but this hasn't happened yet. There are plans to get help from Amtrak and the commercial airlines, but again, there is nothing official. Is it asking too much for the federal government to step in and provide National Guard troops to transport people out? Mexico was able to get its citizens out of harm's way, why can't we? We need to take a hard look at our system of goverment in this country and answer that question. I think we need to move towards more public financing of elections and other reform measures such as Instant Runoff Voting to help reduce the influence of money on politics.

Q. It was recently suggested FEMA should be dismantled, to be replaced by a new and larger government disaster-response agency. Do you think such an agency would do a better job of assisting the victims of hurricanes, and if not, what would you advise lawmakers on Capitol Hill?

A. FEMA has not done well as a branch of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), since that agency has given priority to anti-terrorism programs. FEMA and DHS are bureaucratically incompatible. For example, FEMA was using hurricane forecasts from NHC in the days leading up to Katrina, while DHS was using forecasts provided by Accuweather! The two sets of forecasts were considerably different, so the two agencies were never on the same page, even before the disaster. It makes sense to try putting FEMA back on its own again. However, this will not magically solve the agency's problems--remember that FEMA was an independent agency during the response to Hurricane Andrew in 1992, when the emergency manager of Dade County, Florida famously pleaded, "Where the hell is the cavalry?"

What is needed is for the Bush Administration to put competent people in charge of FEMA with disaster response experience. Political appointees like Michael Brown, who was an official with the International Arabian Horse Association before he came to FEMA, are a recipe for disaster. Congress needs to establish some sort of oversight on the administration of FEMA to ensure the organization is not a dumping ground for political appointees. Since President Carter formed FEMA, only Clinton appointed a FEMA director who had professional disaster management experience. And where was the press on this matter? Where was the investigative journalism needed to call attention to Michael Brown's lack of credentials before Katrina? I think in general the press has been far too negligent investigating and reporting on the qualifications of the government officials who are responsible for ensuring the safety of Americans. Another example of this is the agency responsible for food safety in America--the Department of Agriculture. Right now you'd have a hard time finding a federal agency more completely dominated by the industry it was created to regulate. But you don't hear the press saying much about this conflict of interest, despite the fact that each year food-borne illnesses kill four times as many Americans as died in Hurricane Katrina.

A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE NW GULF NEAR 27N95W. MAINLY FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF WITH LIGHT SFC WINDS. THE DRY WEATHER IN THE REGION OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS MAY COME TO AN END FOR A PORTION OF THE GULF THIS WEEKEND AS A SLOWLY DEVELOPING SYSTEM IN THE NW CARIBBEAN MOVES NWARD DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE E/CENTRAL GULF. THIS SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP INTO THE FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

I think I see a center of the circulation developing @ 17N 84W from 18N 86W. right click on 4th square and slow it down a bit and use lat/longWhich means I think that the center of this system will develop more East than the models were originally saying. Anyone who has watched the models over the past 4 years have probably noticed the trend of the "fading models" they all have the trajectory right but they start off in one spot and move either more east or west over time. Some were calling this the "winsheild wiper effect. Especially evident with Rita's final approach.

That is weird bama, but that just shows how hard this forecast will be. Most likely the first low track is the correct one. Our system will most likely meander around the Yucatan straight or somewhere in there, and then pick its final course. That is what is shone on the GFS, except it shows a new low forming and moving northeast.

"...THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING. DESPITE THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS THAT ARE ONLY SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD STILL FORM DURING THE NEXT OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD...."

hey check out the phase analysis for the GFS. It shows two systems, the current one will go into the central gulf stall and drift se, the second will form south of apalachacola, florida in a few days and go across florida. has it lost its mind?Link

LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION COVER THE AREA WITHIN 200 NM OF LINE FROM CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 15N86W TO CUBA NEAR 22N80W. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND DRIFT N INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

sure most of you saw this already but the last sentence is interesting. first time i've seen them say it is going develop opposed to just saying we will wait and see.

just make sure that if you do warn somebody of a potetntial TD that it will be minimal in strenght at best...worst case barely a cat 1 the way its looking. dont want to freak people out. Alot of people (non-weather junkies) are edgy about these things and due to all the katrina talk during the winter think every strom has the potential to be a Cat 5.

Yep this thing is getting its act together in a hurry. Latest visible loop shows a new batch of convection forming over the low level circulation. Basically all we need to get this to depression status is some 25 knot winds.

And about cancunguy comment way to go buddy i am too latin from PR and i completely agree with you i too visit this site because my country is extremely vulnerable from hurricanes all the time and get a little uncomfortable fot that type of comment i hope that that sort of thing will not happen again

We should all be warning one another of potential Tropical Depression One...passing advice and information........There are some very educated people that I have learned so much from........Keep up the good work......

Cancunguy,Sorry about any racial slurs, etc. that you have seen on this blog. Probably the best thing is to click obscene under each insulting comment. Most people reading and contributing to this site are of course good people who respect all people regardless of race, culture, etc. I try not to let racists bother me too much since it is obvious to me that racists of all kinds are the real losers of life. All the best,StellarCyclone

At this point Stormhank it is hard to tell. All models are pointing that way and most are around TD or Border TS strength, nothing major. It is way to early to tell though, I would check in tomorrow and especially tomorrow evening after the recon data is recieved.