Sunday, January 15, 2012

Gameweek 22 Preview (new look)

I've been looking for a better way to present the data on this site for sometime, and, finally, I think I've found the answer. The folks at Tableau have put together some great software, which (hopefully) will allow me to update the site quicker and present more analysis in numerical form.

Below then are the weekly forecasts for GW22. The advantage of this is that it will allow me to get the rankings up sooner (and thus help with transfer decisions), while the captain rankings will follow later in the week (as that decision can be made at the last minute).

Please let me know in the comments or @plfantasy if the below table isn't showing up, or looks wrong (doesn't fit on page etc). If you do have any issues, please advise on whether you're using a Mac or PC and what browser you are using. I'm still experimenting so please be patient with anything that looks a bit off in the next day or so.

I was just thinking, since you know the statistical chances of Arsenal scoring a goal in a given game week and also the percentage of Arsenal goals that Van Persie is involved in (either scores or assists)you could then calculate the chances of Van Persie been involved in a goal on any given game week? So I was wondering if you could some week compile a table of a PLAYERS chances of been involved in a goal that week. Maybe just take the 10 highest scoring players and see how it pans out? And if you want to be a complete hero to the whole Fantasy Football world, why not use the current Goal Scoring Stats and use them to predict the chances of Arsenal scoring for the next 5 game weeks and hence the chances of Van Persie been involved in a goal for the next 5 game weeks (based on the current Statistical data of course) and comparing it to that of Rooney and Aguro etc. I think it would be fascinating to see who statistically most likely to score points over the next 5 game weeks. I know in 3 weeks the goalscoring stats could be very different but it would be a nice read.

Firstly love the blog Chris, first-time commenter but I've been checking it religiously since last season. Great work.

The new tables are nice and the more visual layout is much easier to read. They don't seem to render properly in the Blogger Mobile theme (at least not on iPhone Safari anyway). Only a portion of the table is displayed.

Would be good to know what data the tables are based on - eg current year only, mix of this/last season, or whatever.

Hi Chris and everyone else. First of all, I think the charts look great and are easy on the eye.

Secondly, I have watched Torres play against Sunderland and he looked lively and was unlucky not to score. I am thinking of transferring him in for Adebayor who has been a massive disappointment over the last few weeks.Plus Norwich are poor in defence and the vibes coming from Stamford Bridge are that he is trying real hard with extra training sessions and the players & coaches are talking up his chances.Will the real Fernando Torres show up at Norwich on Saturday?What do you think Chris?

DTH - I took away the prior year data as it is becoming less useful as the season goes on. I normally remove it by GW19 but was bit late this year. The opponents failed to score number is shown as FTS (I'll add a key shortly).

Thanks tommygun

Thanks Andy

Tony - great mind think alike! This is indeed my next move. I will post this data asap and then have a look in the off season to see how well it performed and how it might be improved.

Thebingster - I will add a quick explanation soon, though essentially it's simply a combo of a team's defensive record and an opponents offensive record (or vice versa).

Thanks Justin

Thanks PBSports

Thanks Kalix. You're absolutely right on both points

Ali - I like Torres as a differential play but only if you need to starting gaining ground on your opponents. He's a massive risk and you're really buying in based on the skillset he showed some time ago. Could he rebound? Absolutely? Could he continue to dispoint? Yup. I personally won't take the risk but there's certainly an argument to be made, especially for Ade who will miss this week anyway.

Your comments on Walter's have really got me thinking. I had my doubts for sometime, based on how weak he looked in the games I watched, but have been hanging on to him due to his healthy price rise and penalty duties. Three shots on target in 10 games is a world of hurt for somebody meant to be playing striker.

Slim pickings for a replacement; I am looking at Sess, Ramsey, and possibly Ireland. Any suggestions?

This is the problems I've had all season. I haven't been able to get one budget midfielder who provides anything better than 2's.

You've got most of the good options listed there. Scholes and Drenthe are two others but both are rotation risks. I’d be wary of Ben Arfa as well. He just doesn’t fit into Newcastle’s 442 and if Cabaye is fit, he’ll be back on the bench.

If you can upgrade some other position in your team just pick Dyer/Moses/Surman. The upside on the others is minimal. Or keep Cabaye.

Kalix - I was just looking at this since I pulled my WC last week. If you go to the FPL game and filter midfielders for 6.1 or below and filter it for EA Sports PPI, the top 5 are Murphy (at 6.1, just above your price), Song, Stilian Petrov, Jarvis and Dyer. The FFS/ICT numbers over the last 6 GWs suggest Murphy and Petrov in your price range. The FFS 'Goal Threat' numbers over that 6 GW period suggest S. Petrov, Moses, and a guy I like, James Morrison at WBA (WBA have 3 of the next 4 away though, and CHE and MUN in early March). So that's a pure numbers approach.

I've been a near season long holder of Moses who looks good when you watch Wigan and whose attack numbers look good (on paper), but hasn't had a lot of FF success, unfortunately. I'll tell you, off a 1 week performance, Dyer looked incredible for Swansea v. Arsenal, albiet against Arsenal's make shift LB. Dyer and Moses have the added benefit of being very cheap, which means an accumulation of 2-pointers isn't all that frustrating since they both have decent upside when drafted into your team through injury or rotation.

If I was a gambler, I might go for Ireland. Absolutely class at Man City a few years ago (160 FF points) - if he gets a run in his favored position in the 'hole' behind Bent, he could be massive.

So Chris what happened with the hype on Bellamy? The decision to put an over defensive lineup at home against Stoke diminished the threat of the most inform Pool striker..Is it wise to give up on him this week? My punt on Milner also seems to go out of the window. I still have certain useless Adebayor, Tiote, Barnett, Wilkinson, Jones for nxt week. A good time to WC eh, playing catching up with 100+ points leader's advantage, any obvious differentials to suggest...I think I would stick to my highfliers RVP, Silva, Bale, Simpson and Vorm

What's people's opinions about going with Dempsey over Bale. Spurs goals have really dried up over the last 2 months and with their schedule (che, liv, city & united in next 6) I can see them struggling to score. Also Bale has tended to be a bit anonymous against the top sides with most of his points coming against weaker opposition.Fulham have good fixtures coming up and Dempsey has looked their most reliable player so I'd really like to fit him in.

Ade won't play and Jones is a doubt. Would you WC now or hold out for two more weeks? Holding allows me to look at any more January window transfers to come and take a punt or two next week when we get the teamsheets before the deadline, thoughts?

New graphs load and view fine on full web site (i.e., web version) in Safari 5.1.2 on Mac OS X Lion, and the browser in Blackberry OS 6; but do NOT load when viewing the mobile version on the Blackberry (old graphs are viewable; workaround with new ones is to view web version).

As others commented, adding in a key would be helpful, as well as the usual stuff beneath the table (e.g., CS data only from home or away depending on where team is playing, etc.).

Some suggestions to consider in the future:

a) perhaps provide a link to your Fantasy 101 section and clarify there how the rankings are calculated (e.g., GPG scored is estimated by ..... ) - one of the things that distinguishes your site from others is your reliance on numbers, but additional info on the metrics you use would lend more credence to them

b) given that the number of home or away games each team have played are not always equal (particularly after odd game weeks). it would be more useful to express CS or FTS on a relative basis (e.g., for this week, Sunderland at home, CS = 3/10 or 30%; Man U away, CS = 6/11 or 55%).