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To the Horizon: Seven Conflicts of Concern for the U.S. Military Part II

Part One of this series covered conflicts in Asia that the U.S. military must consider as it turns its focus toward the future. Part Two will investigate two conflicts in the Middle East.

Hojjatieh Society

Country: Iran

Involved parties:

· Iran

· Israel

· United States

Many conflicts are started based on beliefs or goals, whether aggravated by Saudi Arabia choosing the United States to defend Kuwait or anti-colonial motivations further driven by Islamist ideology. One reoccurring conflict is Iran. Nuclear proliferation, computer hacking, supplying its many allies throughout the world, is just some of the dimensions of Iran’s mission.

The1979 Iranian Revolution started like many revolutions: corruption, contention over a Western-backed regime, divisiveness over economic shortcomings and perceived social injustice. Much of the opposition centered around the conflict between the Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi and Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, reforms targeted at religious affairs, relations between Iran and Israel, the re-arrest and 15 year exile of the Ayatollah.

In the present day, the new Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Ahmadinejad, have projected Iran back out into global conflict with western powers. Iran has its hand in many of the conflicts that involve the United States and Israel today. The question should be raised: Why? Is an all out dispute with the West the wish of the entirety of the Iranian people or some underlying, more fanatical motivation? The Mohammedan-style of governance can generally be conducted in two ways: By bringing Islamist motivations with certain political limitations, sparing their respective country from international repercussions or be driven by a fanatical belief that cares little for the remnants of humanity.

If we look at despots of the past, we can see support structures or mentors that mold the decisions that ultimately lead them to total warfare against their enemies. An example: Adolph Hitler’s obsession with eugenics and his praise for Madison Grant, an American lawyer and eugenicist who, in 1916, wrote “The Passing of the Great Race”. This book called for the Nordic race advancement and rigid system of selection through the elimination of those who are weak or unfit. Grant further recommends segregating "unfavorable" races in ghettos by installing civil organizations through the public health system to establish quasi-dictatorships in their particular fields. Hitler said Grant’s book was “his Bible.” When those in the Intelligence Community (IC) discuss the current Iranian leadership, a base understanding should include what is known as the “Hojjatieh Society.”

Originally known as the “Anti-Baha’i Society”, the Hojjatieh Society countered the declarations of Baha’i leader Mizra Hussien Ali Nuri, who made claim that he was a prophet named “Bahaullah” and there was no Mahdi “the hidden Imam”. Hojjatieh members believe that true Islamic government must await the return of the hidden imam, or Mahdi, who is currently in occultation. For much the same reasons, the Hojjatieh Society opposed Ayatollah Khomeini’s theory of Islamic government and Vilayat-I Faqih (rule of the supreme jurisconsult). It favors collective leadership of the religious community, and opposes religious involvement in political affairs.[1]

The Hojjatieh Society eventually changed their stance on having an Islamic government in Iran, offering the reasoning best given by Iranian President Ahmadinejad’s spiritual mentor, Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi who said, “It doesn’t matter what the people think. The people are ignorant sheep.” [2] The goals of Hojjatieh Society are set higher than the means in which they are reached. The importance now lies in an understanding of the goals of the Hojjatieh Society.

President Ahmadinejad has made reference to these goals during many of his speeches. The most famous one was during a Sept 17th, 2005 speech to the UN General Assembly, on the subject of “World Peace”.

“Dear Friends and Colleagues, from the beginning of time, humanity has longed for the day when justice, peace, equality and compassion envelop the world. All of us can contribute to the establishment of such a world. When that day comes, the ultimate promise of all divine religions will be fulfilled with the reemergence of a perfect human being who is heir to all prophets and pious men. He will lead the world to justice and absolute peace. …O’ mighty Lord, I pray to you to hasten the emergence of your last repository, the ‘Promised One’, that perfect and pure human being, the one that will fill this world with justice and peace.”

Ahmadinejad later told Ayatollahs in Qom, that he “felt a halo over his head” during his speech.

The reality is that President Ahmadinejad and the members of the Hojjatieh Society are asking for the return of the 12th Imam or “Mahdi”. The implication of said return brings much to light.

While Christians look for Jesus’ 2nd coming, the Jews await the Messiah and Muslims await the 12th Imam. However, of the three, Allah’s designated Mahdi is the only one who demands a violent path to conquer the world.

Though discounted even by the most extremist clerics, a popular belief in Iran holds that the 12the Imam… lives at the bottom of a well in Jamkaran, just outside of Qom (Iran). … His reappearance will usher in a new era of peace, as Islam vanquishes all of its enemies. …But rooted in the Shite ideology of martyrdom and violence, the Hojjatieh sect adds messianic and apocalyptic elements to an already volatile theology. They believe that chaos and bloodshed must precede the return of the 12th Imam. …But unlike the biblical apocalypse…the summoning of the Mahdi through chaos and violence is wholly in the realm of human action.[3]

The Iranian leadership belonging to the Hojjatieh Society includes, as aforementioned, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Ahmadinejad. Additionally, the Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Air Force Commander, Brigadier General Hossien Salami… the architect of Iranian asymmetrical warfare doctrine. General Salami is in lock-step with the current Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei (who is ultimately responsible for the ascension of Mahmud Ahmadi-nejad to the presidency) and his Chief Advisor, Hassan Abbasi. Hassan Abbasi is the originator of Iranian plans for war with the U.S., the West and Israel. Both are adherents…of the Hojjatieh Society ideology making them hard-core Shi’a Islamic apocalyptics.[4]

Does the Iranian leadership have a good base of supporters to see their fanatical ideas brought to light? It can, if you reach the leaders of tomorrow in their educational development. This school of thought is known as the Haghani Seminary in Qom, Iran, headed by Ayatollah Mohammad Tadhi Mesbah Yazdi; President Ahmadinejad’s mentor and spiritual guide.

The Haghani School (also known as Haqqani) produces alumni that will form the backbone of the clerical management class that runs Iran's key political and security institutions.[5] A large number of the students that attend this school go on to join the IRGC or the Basij (“Mobilization of the Oppressed", paramilitary volunteer militia). The function of such forces:

IRGC

Infiltrating political, cultural and economic life

Countering internal threats

Pursuit and arrest of counter-revolutionary elements

Intelligence gathering

Preserving public order gatherings

Fighting domestic opposition

Destroy political opposition

Basij

Internal security

Law enforcement auxiliary

Social service

Public religious ceremonies

Morality police

Suppressing dissent

Overall, there are many parts to the equation, yet the published statements made by Hassan Abbasi encompass how these elements are intended on being used.

“There are 29 sensitive sites in the U.S. and the West. We have already spied on these sites and we know how we are going to attack them… Iran’s missiles are now ready to strike Western targets and as soon as the instructions arrive from Ali Khamenei, we will launch our missiles at their cities and installations.”

These attacks will come against the US and the UK. In fact they will target the US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Israel because as Abbasi has said, these nations “are all the children of the same mother” meaning the United Kingdom. …”for the destruction of Anglo-Saxon civilization” [6]

The members of United States military are familiar with fanatical Muhammedean- style rhetoric or grandstanding. An assessment can be made that the Iranian leadership are resolute on following the beliefs of the Hojjatieh Society, yet when assured destruction is imminent, those in power typically lose traction in their drive towards their set endstate.

If the endstate is lost, in eastern strategic thinking, a Nation State or Non-State Actor will retreat, revision, recruit, recon, rebalance and reemerge. This process can take one year or a hundred years, depending if element is manned by those lacking opportunity or religious conscription.

The elements involved in Iran’s overall strategy are immense. Those who state that Iran is heading in the direction of an all encompassing apocalyptic chaos will not find it in the throes of every conflict with Iran. The human element is not as black and white as Iranian leadership may believe or declare. Iran has enjoyed the many second chances it has been afforded. When Iran’s opposition eventually put their bullets to task, instead of pen to paper, the hardliners of the Hojjatieh Society and its followers will demonstrate how strong or weak their resolve is.

What guides a country into conflict is as vital as the strategies used. It can offer those predicting the most likely and most dangerous with the insight of how far the leaders may wish to go and whether the soldiers are willing to go as far. It is important to keep in mind that when hard pressed those fanatics may very easily choose death.

Muslim Brotherhood and the Sinai Peninsula

Country: Egypt

Involved parties:

· Egypt

· Israel

· United States

On March 26th, 1979 the Egypt – Israel Peace Treaty was signed by Egyptian President Anwar El Sadat and Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin. The two countries had been in a state of war since the 1948 Arab- Israeli War and attempted to secure a comprehensible peace. Such a peace included Israel’s withdrawal of civilians and armed forces from the Sinai Peninsula, the northeastern sector of Egypt that connects Africa to Asia. The Sinai Peninsula was captured by Israel in 1967 during the “Six Day War”. As part of the agreement, Egypt would leave the Sinai Peninsula a demilitarized zone.

The Egypt- Israel Peace Treaty opened many economic and political partnerships among the United States, Israel and Egypt, to include embassies, utilization of the Suez Canal, oil, and financial aid. Although both leaders received the Nobel Peace Prize for their efforts, the fallout from the treaty was substantial in the Middle East.

The Arab League decided to put Egypt’s membership on suspense. As a result, the Palestinians expressed great outrage against the treaty and intrinsic opposition to Egypt’s leadership assassinated the President Anwar Sadat in October 1981.

The important aspect of the unrest in Egypt took place in 1924, with the abolition of the Islamic Caliphate when Turkey decided that the Islamic world should seek modernization. After this decision, many hardline Muslims sought a new way to reestablish the Caliphate. One such person was Hassan al-Banna, who in 1928 formed the Muslim Brotherhood.

The Muslim Brotherhood has had many struggles with Pro Western opposition (especially in Egypt) and has suffered gravely at times. Like many who are powered by an idea and backed by religious vehemence, the Muslim Brotherhood was patient. In 1981, with the death of Anwar Sadat, Egypt fell under a “state of emergency” for the next 30 years under former Vice President Hosni Mubarak. Over time, what was initially created to suppress the rise of an Islamist movement set on destroying the Pro Western government, would eventually suppress its own people, fueled by the corruption of power.

The Arab Spring in Egypt, although it had true beginnings with the death of Khaled Mohamed Saeed (the Internet café patron that was beaten to death by two detectives from the Sidi Gaber Police station), it was swiftly taken over by members of the Muslim Brotherhood. In one of the most methodical returns to power, the Muslim Brotherhood and its members within Egypt’s leadership began their pursuit of reestablishing the Caliphate.

One of the many steps by the Muslim Brotherhood to overtake the Egyptian people’s call for freedom occurred during what was supposed to be a speech at Tahrir Square. The speech was to be given by Google marketing executive and leading voice in the Egyptian uprising: Wael Ghonhim. Wael was denied accessibility to the stage by the guards of Sheikh Yusuf al-Qaradawi, the official religious leader of the Muslim Brotherhood and Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi. Yusuf al-Qaradawi was exiled out of Egypt for radical speech and connection to the assassination of former Egyptian President Anwar Sadat and returned shortly after Egypt’s Arab Spring began.

During the speech given by al-Qaradawi, he finished with:

“A message to our brothers in Palestine: I have hope that Almighty Allah, as I have been pleased with the victory in Egypt, that He will also please me with the conquest of the al-Aqsa Mosque (Jerusalem), to prepare the way for me to preach in the al-Aqsa Mosque. May Allah prepare the way for us to (preach) in the al-Aqsa Mosque in safety-not in fear, not in haste. May Allah achieve this clear conquest for us. O’ sons of Palestine, I am confident that you will be victorious.”

During this speech, many in the crowd at Tahrir Square were heard shouting “We are two million martyrs, ready to march on Israel.” Although the majority of the Sheikh’s speech seemed positive and expressed a sentiment of world peace between Muslims and Christians, it is synonymous with a wolf crying like a lamb. It should be remembered that this man, who gave such a dialogue of peace is the same who called the Holocaust a divine punishment of Jews "for their corruption. The last punishment was carried out by Hitler. By means of all the things he did to them - even though they exaggerated this issue - he managed to put them in their place. This was divine punishment for them. Allah willing, the next time will be at the hands of the believers [Muslims]."[7]

This speech at Tahrir Square is considered by many to be the hostile takeover of Egypt’s call for democracy and the beginning of the 3rd Jihad. The 1st Jihad was in 630 A.D. after the conquest of Mecca, Arabia, including much of North Africa, Spain, Persia and West India. The 2nd Jihad was in 1453 A.D. after the capture of Constantinople, which came to expand into South Eastern Europe, Balkans and all but the Southern half of Africa.

Upon the inauguration of President Morsi, the Muslim Brotherhood had put an aesthetically pleasing political front to their organization. It should be considered a dangerous act to strictly adhere trust to President Morsi’s words and not to his administration’s works.

Where the U.S. military should place great concern is the Sinai Peninsula, especially after the attacks of August 5th, 2012 along the Israel-Egypt border. On that day, Islamist militants attacked and killed 17 Egyptian troops at their Mansoura base in northern Sinai. This act was followed by the militants driving military vehicles towards Israeli soldiers at an outpost, where they were stopped by violent action. What followed on August 8th was President Morsi removing key leaders of the Egyptian military, who were deemed responsible for the losses that day. This move was predicted by many who understand the Muslim Brotherhood and their relations through the years with the Egyptian military.

Morsi quite simply seized the moment to appropriate the top military command’s authority for the first time by taking upon himself the firing and hiring of military officers. The President furthermore sacked the head of the Republican Guard, the division responsible for safeguarding the President and members of his regime and replaced him with an officer loyal to the Muslim Brotherhood, Maj. General Hamed Zaky. Morsi’s highhanded actions… are seen in Washington and Jerusalem as the first steps in the Muslim Brotherhood’s takeover of the Egyptian Army.[8]

Following the attacks, Egypt, with the permission of the Israeli government, conducted military action to root out the Al-Qaeda linked militants. The campaign was the first time Egypt had conducted an operation in the Sinai Peninsula since the 1973 Arab-Israeli war.

The international community, particularly Israel, became concerned when Egypt added tanks and anti-aircraft missiles to the military action without any coordination with Israel. These additions were irregular for fighting against third world Bedouins. This was a clear violation of the 1979 peace treaty and after some added pressure from Israel and its allies, Egypt withdrew from the peninsula.

There are reports from Israel that state that Egypt’s army was forced to slow down its counter-terror operations for lack of intelligence on the armed cells’ whereabouts. …every Egyptian and Israeli officer serving anywhere in or near Sinai knows exactly where the gunmen are skulking and their training facilities are located. “The trouble is that Egyptian officers who go past those places look the other way.” …The only action the Morsi Government has taken on the quiet is to place a security buffer strip along the Egyptian- Israeli border off-limits to civilian traffic. …this strip dubbed “The American Highway” of Sinai… It runs from the MFO [Multinational Force and Observers] peacekeepers’ Mediterranean base at Sheikh Zuwied in northern Sinai down to Taba, providing a safe route for the peace keepers, most of them members of the 82nd Airborne Division, between their northern base and their headquarters at Sharm el-Sheikh. ..Egypt no doubt intended this buffer strip to serve additionally for keeping terrorists at a distance from its border with Israel. But IDF (Israeli Defense Forces) observers in that area see very little Egyptian military activity for keeping it sterile and closed to hostile movements.[9]

All of these actions can be assessed as steps toward a goal stated by Sheikh al-Qaradawi, as he prayed to Allah.

“The Rafah border crossing will be opened up for you. I call on the Egyptian Army and the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces—open the Rafah border crossing. Open what is between us and our brethren, what (divides) Gaza from Egypt, and Egypt from Gaza. Egypt should be merciful, humble, and good. Egypt, who fought four wars on behalf of Palestine, should not break from this path. (Egypt) must open the border crossing which is in our hands, the Rafah border crossing. We will open it for the (convoys) which were prohibited from delivering aid to our brethren. This is what I demand from our great, valiant, and noble army. I ask that Almighty Allah prepare this issue for us, and that our Lord guide us, our brethren, and those that preceded us, in faith.”

There is a history that needs to be observed as to why this is such an important factor to the Muslim Brotherhood as is relates to Israel. It centers around the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas. The Muslim Brotherhood’s support for Hamas stems from the ideological affinity between the two movements. Hamas grew out of the Muslim Brotherhood infrastructure in the Gaza Strip, and with the exception of several uniquely-Palestinian themes, its ideology is based on the teachings of Hassan al-Banna, the founder of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood. Hamas’ education systems, mosques, preaching, and indoctrination, as well as their immense significance for the movement, are clearly based on the Muslim Brotherhood model. …Hamas seeks to translate the growing political status of Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood into immediate, substantial gains vis-à-vis the Egyptian authorities to promote its vital interests, such as scaling down Egypt’s security activity against the tunnels to make it easier to smuggle weapons into the Gaza Strip; easing the passage of Palestinians and aid convoys to the Gaza Strip through the Rafah crossing.

The Muslim Brotherhood also provides Hamas with assistance in publicity – the battle for hearts and minds [evident with the recent conflict between Israel and Hamas] motivated by the two movements’ identical worldviews on the Palestinian conflict with Israel. They are both ideologically opposed to the State of Israel’s right to exist; strive to establish a Palestinian state on the entire territory of “Palestine”; support an uncompromising jihad against Israel; and oppose any agreement or arrangement that acknowledges Israel’s right to exist. The Hamas charter begins with a verse attributed to Muslim Brotherhood founder Hassan al-Banna, according to which “Israel shall be established and continue to exist until Islam erases it just like it erased what came before it.” [10]

This is not the only actions that Israel has concern with. Iran has opened an embassy in Egypt for the 1st time in 30 years. President Morsi visited Iran on August 30th, 2012 to attend a summit of the Non-aligned Movement that will boost Iran’s efforts to wriggle out from under international sanctions imposed due to its nuclear weapons program.[11]

Additionally in the east, Jordan faces growing instability as Bedouin tribes…are protesting economic conditions and as more than 150,000 refugees have streamed into the country from war-torn Syria.

In the north, Lebanese-based Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasarallah said his pro-Iranian militia would launch its rockets and mortars at Israel inflicting “tens of thousands of deaths” if Israel tried to strike Iran.

Also, in the north, Syrian opponents of the Assad regime- largely drawn from Syria’s Muslim Brotherhood- may get control of some of Syria’s stores of advanced weapons: rockets, missiles and bio-chemical warfare stores, and they are trying to get American-made Stinger anti-aircraft missiles.

The dramatic regional developments are forcing Israeli strategic planners to change their assumptions and force allocations to sources in the Israeli security community. For example, the head of Israel’s Golani Brigade said his forces were now geared more to meeting a jihadi threat from Syria than the traditional threat posed by the regime of Bashar Assad.[12]

This ever-present threat upon Israel is not unfamiliar to those of the international community. The speech and propaganda is parallel to those which influenced many of the Muslim Brotherhood’s leaders; the National Socialist German Workers Party.

A fact that will haunt those with in the international community is the calls from many world leaders, especially from the United Nations, to have Israel pull back its borders to its pre-1967 lines. These lines would give Jerusalem back to the Palestinians, bring Israel’s eastern border back into an indefensible valley and return Golan Heights back to Syria. Israel gained this ground after a coordinated attack by its neighbors during the “Six Day War”. Israel returned the majority of the ground gained back to its previous owners, even at the risk of future abuse.

Google Earth and image from UN/ OCHA

The Israeli people have taken extraordinary measures to ensure peace with the other groups within the state of Israel, to include access for the three major religions to their respective holy places; Church of the Holy Sepulchre, the Temple Mount, the Wailing Wall, Mount Zion, Via Dolorosa, Mount of Olives and Al-Aqsa Mosque. Yet, many in the international community still pressure Israel out of Jerusalem, even going as far as telling the world that they do not recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. This point is further substantiated by the United Nations’ recognition of Palestine as a non-observer status, which is the first step in creating statehood. The next question should be asked, “What would a Palestinian State look like?” When this is answered, much will be revealed and the Muslim Brotherhood with its Palestinian and Syrian allies will be standing at Israel’s door.

It should be noted that this conflict has greater meaning and plays a small part of a grander idea. As articulated by Egyptian cleric Safwat Higazi, in where he calls for a trans-national Islamic State.

“I am convinced that Islam is imminent, the caliphate is imminent. One of these days, the United States of Islam will be established. Allah willing, it will be soon. Egypt will be one state in this United States of Islam. Morocco and Saudi Arabia will be states as well.”

A serious conversation will have to be conducted on where the United States collectively stands on Israel and its right to exist. A strong and final point was made in an article, “Qaradawi and The Treason of the Intellectuals” by Andrew G. Bostom.

“Julien Benda in his classic 1928 La Trahison des Clercs (The Treason of the Intellectuals) decried with prophetic accuracy how the abandonment of objective truth abetted totalitarian ideologies, which lead to the cataclysmic destruction of World War II. The Treason of the Intellectuals of our time remains the nearly complete failure of Western intellectuals to study, understand, or acknowledge the heinous consequences of the living, corollary Islamic institutions of jihad war, and Jew/ Infidel hatred.”

[10] Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center “A high level delegation of Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood recently held a first-of-its-kind visit to the Gaza Strip, following up on meetings with top Hamas officials held in Cairo. Both sides consider the improvement of their contacts a means of scoring political gains in Egypt and furthering their status and power.” (November 20, 2011): 5, 7.

[11] James Phillips, “Egypt’s Military buildup in Sinai violates its peace treaty with Israel” The Foundry (August 21, 2012): 1.

About the Author(s)

D. Stiegman is a US Army Veteran. He has served as an Infantryman, Instructor and Intelligence Analyst over 13 years. He has operated in Asia, Europe and North America, with deployments to Kosovo and Afghanistan. Now, he teaches at a college, advises on security issues and volunteers in the Search and Rescue services.

This is such a shame. It would have been a brilliant, well-substantiated article that sheds light on a matter all of us know about, but few have truly written about. Except that it's so biased and bigoted it's almost impossible to discern the true facts. Shame.

Ever since I read about China building a new canal through Nicaragua, I've speculated about the possibility of China, the U.S., Europe, and Japan cooperating to fund/build a new canal somewhere along the border between the Sinai and Israel.

With Egypt's new government, there is no telling if new restrictions will be imposed on use of the Suez. Plus the new Maersk Triple E containers impose new requirements and although the Suez supposedly can handle it, it would seem having two canals would allow two-way traffic.

It's about 165 miles along the Sinai-Israel border depending on the route taken. Would the canal be wholly in Israel to limit Egypt restricting its use? Would it be part in the Sinai to get Arab-Egypt-Israel cooperation going? Through the Gaza Strip or around it? Is it even feasible given the cost of the smaller Nicaragua canal is purportedly $40 billion.

Dependent on the route taken, such a canal would add another barrier to the possibility of repeat engagements between Israel and Egypt. It also could help restrict tunnel traffic into the Gaza Strip with a very deep canal filled with water that likely would leak into any deep tunneling effort. There certainly wouldn't be much civil property to buy or populations to displace! There also is plenty of dirt available.:)

Envision how we built the railroad across the U.S. and perhaps have the Israelis start work in the middle building a middle lake of sorts to allow traffic to pass in opposite direction. Egypt would working in the north adjacent to but not in the Gaza strip, and the U.S. and Saudi Arabia working in the south near Eilat, Israel.

Now add a Saudi pipeline leading to the west coast of the Gulf of Aqaba to fill supertankers or leading all the way to the Mediterranean. It's hard to envision another swords to plowshares project that would offer more benefit both militarily and economically.