MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0448
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0657 AM CDT MON APR 28 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS...WRN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 106...
VALID 281157Z - 281400Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 106 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT BEYOND WW 106...WHICH HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO
INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF WFO MEG CWA...IS UNCLEAR. AT THE PRESENT
TIME... THOUGH...IT APPEARS THAT A NEW WW PROBABLY WILL NOT BE
NEEDED TO THE NORTHEAST...AT LEAST THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING.
DISCUSSION...NARROW INTENSE LINE SEGMENT INTENSIFIED CONSIDERABLY AS
IT APPROACHED AND CROSSED THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO WESTERN
TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. INSTABILITY WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AXIS...ALONG THE 40-50 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET AXIS NEAR
THE RIVER...APPEARS TO HAVE PROVIDE SUPPORTED FOR THIS...AIDED BY
LARGE-SCALE FORCING IN THE EXIT REGION OF A STRONG CYCLONIC
MID/UPPER JET. THIS FORCING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE THROUGH MIDDAY...INTO
AN ENVIRONMENT ALREADY IMPACTED CONSIDERABLY BY ONGOING AND PRIOR
CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH SOME FURTHER CONVECTIVE INTENSIFICATION IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH 12-13Z...ALONG AN INTERSECTION WITH A STALLING
DOWNSTREAM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...THIS MAY BE SHORT-LIVED AS CONVECTION
TENDS TO DEVELOP INTO A PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
..KERR.. 04/28/2014
ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...
LAT...LON 36348904 37018806 37138656 36598610 35118720 34288855
34168910 34298994 36348904