Dust Bowl predicted for future

Local weather experts concur with estimates

Published: Wednesday, December 16, 1998

KARA ALTENBAUMERAvalanche-Journal

Lubbock weather experts generally concur with a report released Tuesday by the National Oceanic and Atmos-pheric Administration that predicts the Great Plains will see 21st century droughts as bad as or worse than the Dust Bowl.

Scientists reviewed climatic data from tree rings, archaeological remains and historical documents to determine that droughts of the 20th century have been relatively short and mild compared with those centuries ago. The Great Plains is due for a massive one, the report predicted.

''We definitely don't disagree with it, especially for the South Plains,'' said Ernie Pelto, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Lubbock. ''But you notice they said, 'may get.' There's still a lot we have to learn about periodic drought.

''This (report) has to take into account El Nino and La Nina, and no one is really an expert in that yet,'' he said.

The South Plains, Pelto said, has seen roughly a 20-year drought cycle throughout this century, beginning with the cataclysmic Dust Bowl in the 1930s. He expects that cycle to continue after the turn of the century.

''The severe droughts of the 20th century, the 1930s Dust Bowl and the 1950s drought, were not unusual events and suggest that we can expect to have droughts of this magnitude once or twice a century,'' Connie Woodhouse, a University of Colorado research scientist, said in the report. ''However when we look even further back in time, we see indications of droughts with much greater duration.''

Scientist Jonathan Overpeck of NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center in Boulder, Colo., said in the report that severe droughts similar to one that occurred in the southwestern United States during the second part of the 16th century could recur in the future, ''leading to a natural disaster unprecedented in the 20th century.''

''Besides the fact that natural variability could have more severe droughts in store for us in the future, two human factors could make the Great Plains even more susceptible ... land use practices and global warming.''

John Abernathy, dean of Texas Tech's College of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, said researchers at Tech, Texas A&M University and the Agricultural Research Service have been developing crops and grasses that use water more efficiently should harsher droughts hit the South Plains.

This year's drought has left Lubbock more than 5 inches below the average annual rainfall level at 13.06 inches.