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Inside track: Golden Globes' race for best drama picture

December 5, 2009 | 10:24
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Three films are ahead to win best drama picture at the Golden Globes: "Up in the Air," "Inglourious Basterds" and "Precious." "Up in the Air" has the momentum right now. On Thursday night, members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Assn. again were hanging out with George Clooney, chumming it up, getting their photos taken, but they do that often. In fact, they did so with Clooney twice earlier this year. He's old hat for Globers.

Support for "Basterds" is strong within HFPA. It'll certainly be nominated for best picture, director, screenplay and supporting actor (Christoph Waltz), but renewed hoopla must be whipped up for a movie released four months ago. Expect that to occur with the debut of the DVD on Dec. 15. Not only will Harvey Weinstein mount new ballyhoo big time, but he'll also blitz Hollywood with cheap, nonwatermarked DVDs, "Crash"-style — as Gold Derby reported months ago. My rival kudos bloggers who recently shrugged off "Basterds" as a top Oscar contender -- not even including it in their predix for 10 best-pic nominees (one of them even bragged about snubbing it) -- should start getting very nervous very soon.

Globe voters love "Precious," but it doesn't have the same fanatical backing you see elsewhere. Some kudos watchers blame that on the fact that HFPA has no black members, but that suggests prejudice. That's ridiculous. The group has embraced African American films much more often than the Oscars. Heck, the Golden Globes even nominated "The Great Debaters" for best picture! (Deservedly.) Obviously, "Precious" will be nominated too, but can it win?

And whatever triumphs, can it repeat at the Oscars?

In general, Oscar voters rubber-stamp one of the two best-pic champs at the Globes (drama, musical/comedy) two-thirds of the time, historically speaking, but not lately. The Oscars and Globes disagreed on best picture four times in the last five years.

Predicting the Globes is hard for many reasons, starting with the difficulty of getting inside the heads of nearly 100 quirky mavericks with funny foreign accents. Furthermore, they don't vote in sweeps like you see at the Oscars. They like to spread their gold around. Two years ago, for example, "Atonement" won best drama picture, but the helmer's prize went to Julian Schnabel ("The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"). The previous year "Babel" won best picture, but Martin Scorsese ("The Departed") snatched the directors' laurels. However, sometimes the two categories do agree — like last year when "Slumdog Millionaire" and Danny Boyle romped.

If Globe voters divvy up trophies again, Quentin Tarantino will certainly win something. At least helmer's gold, maybe screenplay too. Does that take "Basterds" out of the running for picture? No, not if he wins just one of them. Ditto "Up in the Air," which will probably reap George Clooney the lead actors' accolade. That shouldn't hurt "Up in the Air's" separate shot at the top prize. Voters named Leonardo DiCaprio best actor when "The Aviator" (2004) won best picture. Ditto Russell Crowe and "A Beautiful Mind." But Crowe lost when "Gladiator" slew rivals for best pic of 2000 and Kevin Spacey lost when "American Beauty" took the top Globe (1999).

If votes split between "Up in the Air" and "Basterds" for best drama picture, beware: "Precious" could prevail.

Here's how that race looks now. To see our handicapping of the race for best comedy-musical picture, click here. Nominations will be unveiled Dec. 15.

BEST DRAMA PICTUREFRONT-RUNNERS"The Hurt Locker""Inglourious Basterds""Invictus""Precious""Up in the Air"