Best Film Ensemble

5 reasons why Penelope Cruz will win the Golden Globe for ‘Versace’

Gorgeous international movie star Penelope Cruz resembles the typical Golden Globe winner, but she’s never actually won. However, her luck might be about to change thanks to her deft performance as fashion designer Donatella Versace in “The Assassination of Gianni Versace” in the second season of “American Crime Story.”

According to Gold Derby’s combined odds, Cruz resides in third place with odds of 4/1 behind Particia Clarkson (“Sharp Objects”) and Alex Borstein (“Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”). But I believe the odds are wrong. Below: my top five reasons why Cruz will upset.

Cruz has a Golden Globe I.O.U.
Cruz has racked up three past nominations on the film side. While no one was expecting her to win Best Drama Actress for “Volver” (2006) or Best Supporting Actress for “Nine” (2009), she had a real shot when nominated for “Vicky Cristina Barcelona” (2008). Unfortunately, she had to compete against Kate Winslet, who was placed in the supporting race for “The Reader” at the Globes, but went on to win an Oscar and BAFTA in the lead category, thus clearing the supporting path for Cruz to win at the Oscars and BAFTA, too. Now with the chance to make up for the Globes oversight, will the voters really overlook Cruz again?

“Versace” is favored to win Best TV Movie/Limited Series
As most pundits and prognosticators will tell you, when it comes to the Golden Globes, if a series is going to win, a performer will likely go along for the ride. “Versace” is the favorite to pick up Best TV Movie/Limited Series with odds of 82/25.

The most likely to benefit might appear to be the series star and recent Emmy winner Darren Criss, but he plays a pathological, drug-addicted serial killer and this could be outside of the HFPA’s comfort zone. But a movie star like Cruz, playing an international fashion designer, is definitely more the Globes’ cup of tea. Remember when “Mr. Robot” won Best TV Drama Series (2016) it was not the star Rami Malek, but supporting player Christian Slater, who took home the prize for Best TV Supporting Actor.

The Category is Bonkers!
When you combine all comedy series, drama series, television movies and limited series supporting roles into one category its best to expect the unexpected. Patricia Clarkson for her poisonous performance in “Sharp Objects” is currently the expected winner with odds of 10/3. But her onscreen daughter Amy Adams is the overwhelming favorite to win Best TV Movie/Limited Series Actress and the Globes love to spread the wealth around various series and networks. In second place is recent Emmy winner Alex Borstein with odds of 4/1. However, she might not want to start planning an acceptance speech quite yet as no funny-lady has won this category since Jane Lynch (“Glee”) in 2011. When you factor the hurdles standing in the way of the ladies ahead of Cruz she starts looking more likely to upset.

The HFPA snubbed Judith Light
Yes, Cruz lost the Emmy. But she was a victim of vote-splitting with co-star Judith Light. When the Globes snubbed Light this year, they cleared Cruz’s path to victory.

Globes love Ryan Murphy’s Actresses
Both Lynch for “Glee” (2011) and Jessica Lange for “American Horror Story” (2012) picked up Best TV Supporting Actress trophies. And Sarah Paulson took home Best Limited Series Actress for “The People vs. O.J. Simpson” (2017). Given the HFPA’s love of Murphy’s actresses, Cruz should easily be the next away with a long overdue Golden Globe.