The new 7.8 percent unemployment rate is a mistake

The language might be a bit too strong if one were to refer to the latest jobless rate as a hoax--it does not appear to have been fabricated from the ether--but it is, at the very least, highly misleading. (And I am not even referring here to the number of discouraged workers who are no longer a part of the official unemployment report, or part-time workers who would prefer full-time work.)

I found the following report from Business Insider, well, interesting:

After this morning's surprisingly positive jobless claims number was released, three things happened:
1.Lots of people felt better about the economy
2.Democrats cheered because they thought the number would help Obama
3.Republicans seized on confusing reports that the numbers had "excluded claims from one large state" (probably California) and blasted the number as wrong and misleading.

Since then, the argument has raged on, and there have been a variety of different reports and interpretations.

Well, we're glad to say that we've finally gotten to the bottom of what happened.

We spoke to a source at the Labor Department. According to this source, who is an analyst at the Department, here's what happened: ALL STATES WERE INCLUDED in this week's jobless claims. Assertions that "a large state" was excluded from the report are patently false.

HOWEVER... It is likely that some of the jobless claims in one large state--California--were not included in the claims reported to the Department of Labor this week. This happens occasionally, our source says. When a state's jobless claims bureau is short-staffed, sometimes the state does not process all of the claims that came in during the week in time to get them to the DOL. The source believes that this is what happened this week. The California claims that were not processed in time to get into this week's jobless report will appear in future reports, most likely next week's or the following week's. In other words, those reports might be modestly higher than expected. (Bold added)

Mixed unemployment news, more jobs but higher monthly rate...US Unemployment Rate Edges Higher November 02, 2012 - The U.S. labor market added another 171,000 jobs in October even as the country's jobless rate edged higher.

The government reported Friday that as more workers looked for work, the unemployment rate hit 7.9 percent, up one-tenth of a percentage point from September. This is the last major economic report before Tuesday's U.S. presidential election where much debate has focused on which candidate can cut the jobless rate and boost the country's sluggish economy.

When the U.S. unemployment rate fell to 7.8 percent in September, it was the lowest level during the White House tenure of President Barack Obama. The rate was 8 percent or worse for 44 straight months. Since World War II, no U.S. president has won reelection with an unemployment rate above 7.4 percent. Friday, Republican presidential challenger Mitt Romney said the one-tenth of a percentage point increase in the unemployment rate is a reminder that the economy is at a "virtual standstill."

At a campaign rally in the midwestern state of Ohio, Obama noted that the October job gains were the largest in eight months, which he called "real progress." But he added that more work has to be done to advance the economy. "As long as there's a single American who wants a job and can't find one, as long as there're families working harder but falling behind, as long as there's a child anywhere in this country who's languishing in poverty and barred from opportunity, our fight goes on," Obama said.

More people unemployed for the long term...Long-Term Unemployment Rises in October to 40.6%November 2, 2012 - The long-term unemployment rate rose to 40.6 percent in October, up from September’s level of 40.1 percent of the total unemployed, according to a report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Friday.

Long-term unemployment is unemployment lasting for 27 consecutive weeks or longer, according to BLS. The government reported that just over 5 million people were unemployed for more than six months – 27 weeks – rising from September’s level of 4.8 million.

Long-term unemployment has remained elevated since the end of the recession in 2009. In January 2009, when President Obama took office, there were 2.7 million long-term unemployed Americans. By August of that year – after the recession had ended in June – that number had crossed the 5 million mark. Long-term unemployment remained above 5 million people until September, when it fell to 4.8 million.

The long-term unemployment rate – the percentage of the unemployed that have been unemployed for 27 weeks or longer – has not been below 40 percent since December 2009, suggesting that while the overall unemployment rate has declined steadily, the economy is not creating enough jobs to bring back workers lost during the recession. Instead, the weak jobs growth is merely enough to keep up with the growth in population.

Unemployment Up in October for Post-9/11 Veterans: Now 10 PercentNovember 2, 2012 -- The unemployment rate for post-9/11 veterans was 10 percent in October, an increase from 9.7 percent in September, according to the Job Situation Summary from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released today.

The non-seasonally adjusted statistics for veterans over 18 indicated there were 209,000 unemployed post-9/11 veterans in October, which was an increase from 202,000 in September. The BLS classifies post-9/11 veterans as “Gulf War Era II” veterans, which includes anyone who served on active duty in the U.S. military following September 11, 2001.

Among male post-9/11 veterans, the unemployment rate climbed from 8 percent to 9.2 percent. This was also 1.7 percent higher than the non-seasonally adjusted rate for non-veteran males over 18, which was 7.5 percent. The post-9/11 veteran female unemployment rate for October was 15.5 percent, which was a decrease from 19.9 percent in September. This was the highest unemployment rate among all veteran demographics.

The same non-seasonally adjusted number for female non-veterans over 18 was 7.4 percent, an 8.1 percent difference. The labor participation rate among the post-9/11 veteran population also increased in October, going from 82.1 to 82.8 percent.

As reported earlier by CNSNews.com, the overall unemployment rate went up in October to 7.9 percent, and the BLS reported an addition of 171,000 jobs to the U.S. economy. Also, real unemployment decreased to 14.6 percent in October, down from 14.7 percent.