Likelihood tools

Likelihood This procedure will enter an Excel array formula to calculate the negative log likelihood for a set of observed data assuming observational uncertainty. You must first use the spreadsheet to develop an explanatory model. The data ranges (model and observed) must be the same size and shape.
Currently only Normal, Poisson, Multinomial and Binomial likelihoods are
allowed. For Multinomial likelihoods, you must choose a range containing the observed data and choose a range containing the cell probabilities. Binomial likelihoods
can be specified using Multinomial with two cells, though it would be more
efficient to use Excel's built-in formula BINOMDIST.

Bootstrap iteration This routine uses Solver to compute
confidence limits for a set of parameters by bootstrapping. You must first enter
a PopTools array formula to resample the data. Then use the Likelihood routine
(or some other method) to calculate the likelihood for the bootstrap sample. The
routine works by replacing the bootstrap sample with fixed values and then
calling Solver to fit the parameters. The bootstrap sample is then recalculated
to generate a new sample. This is repeated many times, yielding a distribution
of parameter estimates, from which confidence limits can be calculated. The
output is a new sheet containing the parameter estimates for each iteration.
Sort the data and then use
the "Summary stats" routine to get the percentiles.

Likelihood profile This routine uses Solver to create a likelihood profile
and 95% confidence limits for a single parameter.
Before invoking this routine, you must

install Solver (use TOOLS/ADD-INS),

use the spreadsheet to calculate the likelihood based on a single parameter
set,

have a single cell containing the sum of the negative log likelihood for the
model, and