It was a heartbreaking loss for the Nuggets tonight after a solid first half full of energy and effort. In the end, the deteriorating interior defense and the star power of Derrick Rose and Jimmy Butler was just too much to overcome as the Bulls knocked off the Nuggets 106-101. Hopefully the momentum from tonight’s start carries forward as it will likely lead to plenty of wins against lesser competition.

Kenneth Faried, PF36 MIN | 7-14 FG | 4-4 FT | 19 REB | 3 AST | 2 STL | 3 BLK | 1 TO | 18 PTS | +5A ton of energy from the Manimal tonight even though he was somewhat limited after a monster first half where he was making all kinds of plays (including some excellent outlet passes). He showed some signs of good help defense when Nurkic was on the floor, but let in his share of easy drives to the basket as well. If Faried continues to play with this kind of effort, it will definitely lead to plenty of wins in the new year.

Wilson Chandler, SF34 MIN | 8-16 FG | 4-4 FT | 3 REB | 2 AST | 0 STL | 0 BLK | 2 TO | 22 PTS | -1Faried looked like the best player on the floor in the first half. He missed his first two 3-point attempts and proceeded to drive to the hoop at will. It’s amazing he ended up with only 4 free throw attempts despite his aggressiveness tonight. He disappeared in the second half a bit, mostly due to foul trouble and couldn’t do much to stop Jimmy Butler after halftime, but a solid effort nonetheless.

Timofey Mozgov, C25 MIN | 1-4 FG | 2-2 FT | 6 REB | 1 AST | 0 STL | 0 BLK | 0 TO | 4 PTS | +4Poor Mozzy looked lost all night. He held his own to some extent in the first half in isolations against Gasol, but for most of the game he just looked like he was flailing away in the paint. Fouling out with 3 minutes to play gave Denver the best chance win with Nurkic coming back in for him.

Ty Lawson, PG40 MIN | 8-16 FG | 3-4 FT | 7 REB | 7 AST | 1 STL | 0 BLK | 2 TO | 20 PTS | -6Ty had a quiet, but solid game. He’s been dominating with his pull-up mid-range jumpers and I love how aggressive he’s been on offense this year. He’s still a liability on defense despite his better effort and the great post defense of Gasol, Gibson and Noah limited his drives into the paint. I loved his work on the glass tonight.

Arron Afflalo, SG40 MIN | 8-14 FG | 2-2 FT | 4 REB | 1 AST | 1 STL | 1 BLK | 4 TO | 19 PTS | 0He wasn’t settling for 3-pointers tonight and it led to some very efficient scoring thanks to a solid mid-range game. He still seems passive and lost at times, especially considering he only shot two free throws. Derrick Rose proved to tough for a one-on-one matchup at the end, but it’s hard to blame Afflalo for taking away the drive considering how bad Rose’s shot looked in the first half.

Jusuf Nurkic, C21 MIN | 3-9 FG | 4-6 FT | 10 REB | 1 AST | 0 STL | 3 BLK | 1 TO | 10 PTS | -7Nurkic continues to be the most exciting player on the roster and looks like he’s a star in the making. He made his share of mistakes tonight and those will continue to keep him from getting starter’s minutes, but he’s becoming more and more of a force, both offensively and defensively, as his confidence grows. His positioning, footwork, hands and passing make him dangerous on the pick-and-roll in particular.

J.J. Hickson, C14 MIN | 0-5 FG | 1-2 FT | 5 REB | 0 AST | 0 STL | 0 BLK | 2 TO | 1 PTS | -12I’m not usually a passenger on the I Hate Hickson bandwagon, but he was just awful tonight. He didn’t have a single thing go his way and the only thing saving him from an F is that he at least played hard.

Nate Robinson, PG14 MIN | 0-7 FG | 0-1 FT | 2 REB | 3 AST | 0 STL | 0 BLK | 0 TO | 0 PTS | -3Nate isn’t worth a whole lot when he isn’t making shots. It was extra painful tonight when Aaron Brooks did his best NateRob-of-old impression and showed the Nuggets exactly what they were hoping they had in Nate. He’s not an awful fill-in to spell Ty, but he’s not bringing much to the table these days.His saving grace is the rapport he’s developing with Nurkic.

Gary Harris, SG17 MIN | 2-7 FG | 2-2 FT | 1 REB | 1 AST | 0 STL | 0 BLK | 0 TO | 7 PTS | -5Harris still just doesn’t look comfortable on either end. Despite making a shot early on, he seemed off balance and unsure for most of the night. His defense was serviceable, but he was no match for Derrick Rose or Jimmy Butler at this point. I still think he has a bright future as his gains confidence, but it wasn’t there tonight.

Brian Shaw
Shaw had the team ready to play tonight, they came out and put together the best first half they’ve played all season. It says a lot that the team responded with the effort they played with tonight after such a deflating loss to the Lakers. Given the available players, I think Shaw managed minutes about as well as he could tonight as Nurkic just isn’t ready for a full workload. I’m not ready to give up on Shaw yet, especially after an effort like tonight’s.

Five Things We Saw

The Nuggets managed to compete offensively despite the Bulls totally locking down the paint with 18 blocks tonight. Most of the Nuggets points in the paint came from fast breaks or hook shots.

The strong effort in the first half may have led to tired legs and fouls in the second half. The Bulls guards just weren’t getting into the paint until after halftime and that changed everything.

There were still a few times that Denver left the Bulls shooters (Dunleavy, Hinrich) open for wide open looks, but overall they improved significantly in that regard from the Lakers game.

Kenneth Faried looked like he wanted to be the leader of the team tonight. It remains to be seen if he can keep that effort up throughout the season and avoid “tired legs”, but I loved what I saw from him tonight. Both Faried and Chandler showed signs in the first half of being the leader on the court that the Nuggets so desperately need.

Jimmy Butler and Derrick Rose are really, really good and they showed tonight why the Nuggets will always be at a disadvantage without a star to go to in the 4th quarter. With the emergence of Nurkic in the post, maybe the front office should start looking for a young guard to throw everything they’ve got at as the trade deadline appraoches.

]]>http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2015/01/01/rapid-reaction-denver-nuggets-101-chicago-bulls-106/feed/573-on-3: Taking stockhttp://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2014/12/12/3-on-3-taking-stock/
http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2014/12/12/3-on-3-taking-stock/#commentsFri, 12 Dec 2014 23:30:33 +0000http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/?p=10376With over a quarter of the 2014-2015 NBA season in the books, we’re ready to give the Denver Nuggets their first progress report of the year. Joining us for an early season 3-on-3 is special guest Aaron Lopez. Although he’s moved on from the Nuggets beat, Aaron covered the team for the Associated Press, Rocky Mountain News, and Nuggets.com from 1994-2014. Roundball Mining Company is proud to feature Aaron alongside staff writers Kalen Deremo and yours truly, Charlie Yao.

For those unfamiliar with the 3-on-3 format, we’ll present three short questions on the state of the Nuggets followed by individual answers from our panel of three. As always, please leave your thoughts and your own answers in our comment section below.

1.) The Nuggets have gone through a wild series of swings to start the season. Is it a normal adjustment period, or indicative of a team that will struggle with consistency all year?

Aaron Lopez:We saw the inconsistency last year as the Nuggets adapted to their first year under coach Brian Shaw. Were they going to play fast? Were they going to slow it down? We saw both at times throughout the season, and I think it was generally understood and accepted by fans that there was going to be a transition period. Injuries across the board made things even tougher, so the disappointment of missing the playoffs was tempered by optimism about the near future. Which brings us to 2014-15. Shaw wanted to build off the fight he saw in his depleted team in the final two months of 2013-14. He also was excited about having a healthy roster, starting most notably with Danilo Gallinari. It was smart to bring Gallo (and J.J. Hickson, JaVale McGee and Nate Robinson) along slowly during training camp, but we’re seeing somewhat of a repeat of last year’s injury report. There’s not much room for error in the Western Conference, so injuries are a valid reason for lack of early season success.

More concerning to me is the lack of a defined identity. Everyone knows that Memphis is the Grindhouse. The Spurs are the machine. The Warriors are gunslingers built around the “greatest shooting backcourt in history of the game.” OKC is KD and Westbrook. The Clippers are Chris Paul and Lob City. Even Houston has The Beard. The Nuggets are lacking that identity. Power in numbers is nice, but the numbers aren’t supporting the marketing campaign.

Kalen Deremo:I think a normal adjustment period expires after about one-third of the season. The Nuggets will reach that point when they play the Pacers on Dec. 20. Two years ago when the Nuggets had their best season in franchise history they were 14-13 on Dec. 20. After that they went 43-12. That team also opened the year 0-3, then won four games in a row, lost three in a row, won four in a row and lost three in a row before finally evening out. So yes, oscillation should be expected. That said, George Karl was a proven winner and Brian Shaw is not. At this point Shaw hasn’t given us enough reason to believe the Nuggets will suddenly right the ship and start piling up wins. That is my concern.

Charlie Yao:The long pattern of inconsistency leads me to believe it’s something ingrained in the Nuggets’ personality. I would like to believe the Nuggets are a better team than they’ve shown, but that starts with an identity and sustained improvement on defense. Some players have made great strides towards that, like Timofey Mozgov, but many others are headed the opposite direction. Meanwhile players like JaVale, Nate Rob, and JJ Hickson have topped out at what they are and don’t move the needle for Denver. The Nuggets should go on runs the rest of the way, but don’t have enough to make a huge jump from what they are — a bubble playoff team in the West.

2.) Which Nuggets player is primed for a career season? Conversely, which player looks most likely to wind up in the annual trade deadline rumors?

Lopez: Having spent three-plus years getting to know Wilson Chandler as a person, it’s great to see him playing at a high level again. I’d say he and point guard Ty Lawson are the two guys who look like they’re in store for career years. Ty gets overlooked because of the gluttony of point guards in the West, but it would be awesome if he could somehow land a spot on the All-Star team. Denver’s team success will have a lot to do with that. As for trade talk, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Wilson’s name out there in February. His stock will continue to rise if he stays healthy. Kenneth Faried has been a mainstay in trade rumors, but it might be tough to move him now that’s he’s locked in to a pricey long-term deal. Other candidates are McGee, Robinson and Randy Foye, but their injuries will impede the ability to get fair value in return.

Deremo: Ty Lawson. Hands down. People forget Lawson is already in his prime. He’s 27 thanks to staying in college for three years. The best basketball of his career is starting now. In November he averaged 17 points and 11 assists; on the season he’s averaging 16 and 10. If he’s on a better roster Lawson would have a great shot of making the All-Star team this year. Conversely, I see JaVale McGee as a cadaver at this point. He too will be 27 in only a month, yet his career seems to be going in the opposite direction as Lawson’s. Granted, injuries haven’t helped his case, but even when healthy JaVale looks like the same old JaVale. The Nuggets will be happy to find any team willing to take on his contract at the deadline.

Yao: Wilson Chandler, to me, looks like he’s past all of the issues that have previously held him back in Denver. Ill Wil has regained the confidence and health of his pre-lockout self. Furthermore, he’s no longer a spot starter and has earned the trust of his teammates and coach and as one of the Nuggets’ premiere players. Add it all up and you have a rock solid starter primed for a big year. On the trade front, the Nuggets are looking at a myriad of tough decisions. Their best assets are neither exceptionally cheap nor young, making for questionable returns at best. It’s more likely that the Nuggets dangle JaVale McGee with journeymen like Foye, Robinson, and Hickson as potential sweeteners.

3.) Are the Nuggets a team to be taken seriously in the western conference right now, or should they be looking ahead? Which direction would you like to see moving forward?

Lopez: It was impressive to see the Nuggets rebound from the 1-6 start, but there’s not enough evidence to suggest that they’re a playoff contender right now. The West is just too deep. Middle of the pack is a bad place to be in the NBA, but that’s where Denver is headed. I’d like to see GM Tim Connelly make some moves, but he’s in a tough spot. Lawson should remain the cornerstone of any future plan, and it’s going to be hard to get value in return for most of the people around him. Afflalo can opt out of his deal, so he might be an attractive piece for someone looking to acquire a shooter in February. I love Timofey Mozgov and he has a good contract. I would hate to see him go anywhere. I’d like to see the Nuggets find a good backup for Ty, either via trade or through the draft. Other than that, no one on this roster should be considered a dealbreaker in any potential move.

Deremo: As I will continue to preach all year, this roster is talented. It really is. Lawson is playing at an All-Star level. Chandler is having the best year of his career (averaging 20 points and seven boards in December). The Nuggets have a few promising rookies and lots of depth. While injuries continue to be a major hindrance to this team’s success, I still see the Nuggets as being capable of stacking up some impressive win streaks when healthy. To me, the goal of this season should be to win as many games as possible by the end of the year. That’s it. There’s too much talent for this team to have a fire sale at the deadline and tank. If Shaw can’t win with this roster then the Nuggets need to find someone who can.

Yao: I’m already on record saying the Nuggets have met their ceiling. Teams like the Suns and Pelicans can find plenty of value in an eight-seed finish this year, but not Denver. This core group of players isn’t competing for titles now or anytime soon. The future is here, and it makes sense to think about what the Nuggets might need when they’re really ready to win. Trudging ahead with more Hickson and Foye type additions is a tacit admission that the Nuggets are okay with the middle for two more years.

]]>http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2014/12/12/3-on-3-taking-stock/feed/7Treacherous Trifecta: The Denver Nuggets’ three biggest problems through 18 games (and how to fix them!)http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2014/12/05/treacherous-trifecta-the-denver-nuggets-three-biggest-problems-through-18-games-and-how-to-fix-them/
http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2014/12/05/treacherous-trifecta-the-denver-nuggets-three-biggest-problems-through-18-games-and-how-to-fix-them/#commentsFri, 05 Dec 2014 17:33:56 +0000http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/?p=10271After a disastrous 1-6 start where Murphy’s Law was in full effect, the Denver Nuggets have turned 180 degrees. These days rather than everything going wrong, almost everything is running smoothly. The Nuggets are 7-3 in their last 10 games and Brian Shaw appears to have found a series of rotations that are working effectively. But not all is ideal with the 2014-15 Denver Nuggets. Not yet at least. Like all teams the Nuggets still have their fair share of problems, their peccadilloes to iron out. The main difference between the Nuggets and other teams currently winning at a high rate is that the Nuggets’ issues are much more pronounced, much more glaring and even costing them games.

Below are the issues mentioned above. There are three, mainly — three issues that have become simply impossible to ignore every time the Nuggets suit up. For each problem I’ve also laid out three solutions I feel would not only mitigate these predicaments but solve them altogether. Naive, perhaps, but constructive nonetheless. If you have solutions of your own to the problems detailed in this article I encourage you to post them in the comments section below.

Problem: Help defense

As I detailed in my latest Rapid Reaction, the Denver Nuggets’ help defense is virtually nonexistent. Both Kenneth Faried and J.J. Hickson block less than .7 shots per game and understand essentially nothing about the nuances of where to be when their opponents have the ball. Meanwhile, as sturdy as Darrell Arthur is when faced up by opposing power forwards man to man, he too has his own shortcomings — due to a lack of bounce — after sliding over to bail out teammates when the Nuggets’ defense has broken down at the perimeter. These problems have in turn forced the Nuggets to rely on Timofey Mozgov as the sole paint protector down low, atoning for his teammates’ lazy perimeter defense and collecting multiple nugatory fouls along the way.

Solution: Play the centers

While not ideal, playing two centers side by side is something Brian Shaw should strongly consider, if only for brief stretches at a time to at least dissuade opponents from penetrating the lane at such a prolific rate, and especially considering the Nuggets have two of the best backup centers in all of basketball. JaVale McGee is the league’s second leading shot blocker per 48 minutes amongst qualified players, according to ESPN.com. And Jusuf Nurkic is the league’s 18th leading shot blocker per 48 minutes amongst unqualified players. Furthermore, Nurkic’s advanced post game and precocious perimeter defense would be a more than adequate compliment to the inside presence of McGee or Mozgov.

If Shaw isn’t inclined to explore unconventional tw0-center lineups (which I don’t see why he wouldn’t be, considering how experimental he’s been with rotations all year) the Nuggets must soon look to trade one of their power forwards even if the return is underwhelming. Because right now the Nuggets have three power forwards — two of whom are nearly identical — and not one of them can defend the paint at a proficient level.

Problem: Nate Robinson

Nate Robinson is the current weakest link in the Nuggets’ standard rotation — and quite frankly, it’s not even close. His insistence to hoist up low-percentage shots at high-percentage rate from one of the more vital positions on the floor (backup point guard) might very well be the Nuggets’ biggest downfall to date. Over his last 10 games Robinson is shooting less than 30 percent from the field, which is only slightly worse than his 34 percent conversion rate on the season. His PER is second lowest on the team, as is his adjusted field goal percentage. Furthermore, of the Nuggets’ 20 most used five-man rotations, units with Robinson in them have outscored their opponents 7-11 times on the floor whereas units without him are 25-16, according to 82games.com. And despite all evidence pointing towards the Nuggets benefiting from Robinson lowering his shooting volume he still takes as many shots per game as Danilo Gallinari and plays perhaps the worst man defense of anybody on the team.

Solution: Execute a trade or play Foye

The Nuggets need a better, more efficient, more defensive-minded backup point guard to ensure Robinson can do what he does best: cheer from the bench. Ironically enough, they had one of these candidates last year in Aaron Brooks who signed with the Bulls this summer for half of what the Nuggets are paying Robinson annually. Other players like Steve Blake, Mario Chalmers, Kirk Hinrich and Jarrett Jack would do wonders for the Nuggets. And if Tim Connelly is for some reason unable to facilitate a trade, Shaw should look no further than the more efficient, more sizable Randy Foye (when healthy, of course) to fill the void left by Robinson. This move would subsequently benefit the Nuggets two fold: from the point guard position (obviously) and from the shooting guard spot as well, opening up more playing time for two of the best defenders on the entire team in Gary Harris and Alonzo Gee.

Problem: The second unit

The Nuggets are a deep team. They’re also a team with lots of overlap, lots of incongruities and lots of players who deserve more playing time than they’re currently receiving. One of the best things Brian Shaw has done early on is truncate his rotation and verbally identify player roles. That said, I’m not so sure the Nuggets’ present second unit is as effective nor efficient as it could be. Often times the arrival of the second unit comes in unison with a vast barrage of buckets surrendered to their opponent (the fifth most opponents’ points per game in the league according to HoopsStats.com). It also ushers in the commencement of myriad low-percentage shots by most everyone in the rotation (the third worst collective field-goal percentage in the league according to HoopsStats.com). Nobody in the Nuggets second unit shoots above 46 percent from the field and three of those players are even shooting below 40 percent (Robinson, Gallinari and Harris). In summary, despite scoring the fourth most bench points per game in the league (HoopsStats.com) it’s taking the Nuggets valuable possessions to do so, possessions that are not compensated for on the defensive side of the ball which in turn results in a net loss as whole — hence the bench struggles over the last few weeks.

Solution: Trim the fat

First and foremost, as is mentioned above, Nate Robinson must go. His contribution to the Nuggets’ bench failures cannot be overstated. Why a career journeyman should suddenly be considered irreplaceable is a notion that cannot be justified. Freeing minutes for defensive-minded shooting guards in a league teeming with All-Star wings is also a move that should not be considered undue. Next, though the stats seem to be more friendly to J.J. Hickson, the eyes tell a different story. While Darrell Arthur is no Kevin Garnett offensively, his defensive contributions, versatility and efficiency (he’s shooting at a higher clip from downtown than Gallinari, Robinson and nearly Lawson) will go a long way in helping the Nuggets win should he be dubbed the permanent backup power forward. And finally, the Nuggets absolutely, positively, unequivocally must utilize either JaVale McGee or Jusuf Nurkic at backup center. These are big men most teams would die to have coming off their bench. Pairing either one with Darrell Arthur will create ineffably more secure rim protection down low in addition to keeping opponents more perimeter oriented in their shot selection. And if these moves result in too little offensive production from the bench Shaw should not hesitate in moving Faried to a backup role (replaced by Arthur) given his putrid production to start the season.

Naturally these moves might be met with a heavy dose of resistance from certain players — specifically Faried if moved to the bench. But given Gallinari’s acceptance of his role, Shaw’s ultimate dominion as head coach, the bleak longterm prospects of receiving perpetual production from the current bench rotation and Robinson and Hickson’s status as players who should be ebullient to even have NBA contracts, there’s absolutely no reason fans shouldn’t expect even better results from the Denver Nuggets moving forward.

Kenneth Faried, PF19 MIN | 4-9 FG | 0-3 FT | 1 REB | 0 AST | 1 STL | 0 BLK | 1 TO | 8 PTS | -11Kenneth Faried started strong with a couple of made baskets and a couple of drawn fouls, and then became passive in the second and third quarters. He saw the court only for a single inbounds play in the fourth quarter and none in overtime.

Wilson Chandler, SF41 MIN | 6-15 FG | 2-3 FT | 8 REB | 2 AST | 1 STL | 1 BLK | 1 TO | 19 PTS | +6Chandler found a bit of a groove offensively in the second half, and he played inspired defense on Kobe for several key possessions. Aside from a handful of ugly shots early and an airball in the second quarter, this was a fantastic game.

Timofey Mozgov, C30 MIN | 5-9 FG | 3-4 FT | 13 REB | 0 AST | 1 STL | 1 BLK | 1 TO | 13 PTS | +12Moz was limited by early foul trouble, but came on strong late. He limited Jordan Hill, one of the league leaders in offensive rebounds, to just a single extra possession while generating six himself.

Ty Lawson, PG43 MIN | 5-10 FG | 7-10 FT | 3 REB | 16 AST | 0 STL | 0 BLK | 5 TO | 18 PTS | +16Ty joined Ricky Rubio and Rajon Rondo as the only players to post 16 assists in a game this season. He accounted for 16 of the Nuggets’ 21 first-quarter points, drew 7 fouls, and played passable defense against Jeremy Lin for most of the game. He reverted to passive mode for a few minutes late in the first half and early in the second, but was very good down the stretch.

Arron Afflalo, SG42 MIN | 5-17 FG | 4-4 FT | 6 REB | 1 AST | 1 STL | 0 BLK | 1 TO | 15 PTS | +9Afflalo started the game trying to force the action on both ends. He took bad gambles on two of the first four defensive series to go with three bad shots. His fundamentals improved as the game went on, and he made all of his free throws late in overtime to seal the win.

Danilo Gallinari, SF31 MIN | 3-8 FG | 2-4 FT | 7 REB | 1 AST | 0 STL | 0 BLK | 1 TO | 10 PTS | +10Gallinari played a solid stretch in the second quarter, and then was awesome in the fourth quarter and overtime, taking over Faried’s spot with the other starters. He had five rebounds in the fourth quarter, and atoned for a turnover at the end of regulation by converting a non-traditional four point play (a free throw, and then a three pointer after Mozgov tipped out the missed second free throw) to put the Nuggets in the lead for good.

JaVale McGee, C6 MIN | 1-1 FG | 0-0 FT | 4 REB | 0 AST | 0 STL | 0 BLK | 0 TO | 2 PTS | +2JaVale was all over the glass and affected a lot of shots in the few minutes he played before leaving with a leg injury.

Nate Robinson, PG10 MIN | 0-4 FG | 1-2 FT | 3 REB | 0 AST | 1 STL | 0 BLK | 2 TO | 1 PTS | -9Robinson was aggressive in all the wrong ways tonight. He spent a lot more time dribbling around the three point line than attacking the rim offensively, committed a pair of bad fouls, and wasn’t particularly good on defense. He did have one big-time offensive rebound in the fourth quarter.

Brian Shaw
Brian Shaw put the right guys on the court tonight. He gave Kobe a good mix of defensive looks with Afflalo, Chandler, and a bit of Gallinari. He let the guys who were playing well finish the game in overtime. Well done!

]]>http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2014/11/23/rapid-reactions-denver-nuggets-101-los-angeles-lakers-94/feed/35Rapid Reaction: Denver Nuggets 107 Oklahoma City Thunder 100http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2014/11/19/rapid-reaction-denver-nuggets-107-oklahoma-city-thunder-100/
http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2014/11/19/rapid-reaction-denver-nuggets-107-oklahoma-city-thunder-100/#commentsThu, 20 Nov 2014 01:00:00 +0000http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/?p=9315The Denver Nuggets are on a winning streak as they best the Thunder of Oklahoma City for a 107-100 win. Grades and commentary are posted below.

Kenneth Faried, PF30 MIN | 3-7 FG | 2-3 FT | 10 REB | 0 AST | 1 STL | 0 BLK | 1 TO | 8 PTS | +13It is not as bad as it looks with Faried, but that doesn’t mean it’s still not bad. The Nuggets were able to get a win on his birthday but Faried’s defense is an enormous hole in the Nuggets’ gameplan this season. 30 minutes was generous. Put him on the floor with the better fours in the league and the Manimal doesn’t stack up. The defense makes him a weak point for the rest of the team.

Wilson Chandler, SF27 MIN | 8-15 FG | 2-4 FT | 9 REB | 1 AST | 0 STL | 1 BLK | 1 TO | 21 PTS | +15The hot pink footwear nicely accentuated his best of the game of the season. There were some sloppy drives but this is the kind of production Chandler has never been able to give Denver — 27 productive minutes of scoring and versatility. Awesome work on Ibaka late in the game

Timofey Mozgov, C36 MIN | 6-7 FG | 5-5 FT | 7 REB | 2 AST | 0 STL | 3 BLK | 2 TO | 17 PTS | +9Chandler really held the starters together but Mozgov was Mr. Dependable. He has his faults, like catching passes, but Mozgov is the one Nuggets big who never gets way out of line. On this team that is unique.

Ty Lawson, PG36 MIN | 6-13 FG | 3-4 FT | 1 REB | 15 AST | 1 STL | 0 BLK | 2 TO | 15 PTS | +9This was a good to great game for Lawson but the grading is tough. He could have been shredding Reggie Jackson and Sebastian Telfair on a back to back, but he mostly took difficult shots and was merely good. His defense on Telfair and others was lacking.

Arron Afflalo, SG34 MIN | 6-15 FG | 0-0 FT | 1 REB | 1 AST | 0 STL | 0 BLK | 0 TO | 13 PTS | +6Pretty mediocre game but he took advantage of his biggest opportunity of the night. Morrow fell asleep late in the game on a crucial possession and Afflalo made him pay with a corner three. Afflalo sealed the win with his first huge make of the season.

Darrell Arthur, PF18 MIN | 3-6 FG | 2-2 FT | 4 REB | 2 AST | 2 STL | 1 BLK | 0 TO | 9 PTS | -6Solid minutes from Arthur who is playing with the most confidence we’ve ever seen out of him offensively. Defensively it was a mixed bag, Arthur was getting out-hustled to loose balls and rebounds and did not control penetration at his usual outstanding level.

Danilo Gallinari, SF21 MIN | 1-5 FG | 1-2 FT | 3 REB | 2 AST | 1 STL | 0 BLK | 0 TO | 4 PTS | -8Gallo is in the midst of the first stanza of Mister Mister’s “Broken Wings.” The bassline is grooving, the slow drumroll kicking and you’re almost feeling a little hope. But those ominous grooves will surely reach their inevitable climax, and when the chorus drops you’re in a glass case of emotion the rest of the night.

Brian Shaw
There are some really interesting things developing with Shaw. He fancies a fast pace and a large rotation for this team, but has increasingly favored slower play and heavy starters minutes in order to win. He is no longer blindly experimenting when things go bad — he’s falling back to his safety net. There’s progress here but it also points to a possible coach-roster mismatch. I believe he needs to stagger the first team with the bench more and adopt JaVale-like leashes for Faried and Gallo.

Five Things We Saw

This might have been the slowest game of the season – just 86 possessions used. That is not what you’d expect for a team coming off a back-to-back in Denver. Shaw wants to limit turnovers and easy points, which is working. What is still coming out is the Nuggets poor defense though. They are allowing teams 50%+ eFG every night. If you’re gonna slow it down, Denver must get better there and I don’t think they have the players for it.

I did not like Lawson and Faried playing three feet off Telfair and Ibaka respectively. They are the only two guys that can hurt you and you’re letting them step into wide open shots. Lawson and Faried are supposed to be the best players and leaders on the team but somebody needs to get in their face about mistakes like that. I would hope Brian Shaw is all over them in film study tomorrow.

Denver’s offense picked up – we saw a 124.4 offensive efficiency number tonight. Something that high has been way out of the norm for this team. Denver had just 9 fast break points so they are getting it done at a much slower pace, albeit against some poor defenses.

Only 8 turnovers tonight. That’s a must as we move deeper and deeper into this era of slow-ish Nuggets ball. I am on board with it. Let Shaw do what he wants to do and force guys to adjust.

Every Nuggets starter was a a big plus and every Thunder starter a minus in terms of plus/minus. The starters once again delivered a win. That includes Faried, who is struggling on defense but still giving maximum effort. The Nuggets bench just needs Jesus, especially Gallo.

]]>http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2014/11/19/rapid-reaction-denver-nuggets-107-oklahoma-city-thunder-100/feed/95Rapid Reaction: Sacramento Kings 131, Denver Nuggets 109http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2014/11/05/rapid-reaction-sacramento-kings-131-denver-nuggets-109/
http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2014/11/05/rapid-reaction-sacramento-kings-131-denver-nuggets-109/#commentsThu, 06 Nov 2014 02:00:00 +0000http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/?p=9306The Nuggets were not in this game from the first whistle. This looks like how I expect the 76ers to look in late March. Things are bad and it’s hard to even imagine a light at the end of the tunnel. More depressing notes below…

Mozgov could not handle Cousins. That’s about all you need to know. He did get angry late in the game and even started a scuffle. That’s good to see out of Mozgov. You need that fire from your center. However, I have a feeling most of that resulted from the Nuggets playing like such crap. Pure frustration more than anything.

Best player on the floor for the Nuggets. He’s the only guy who looks like he really, genuinely cares. His offense will always be mediocre at best, but his defense is awesome. Arthur is really the only reason to watch the Nuggets right now.

Gallo has always been a streaky shooter, but this is ridiculous. All he’s doing is taking difficult, often long-range jumpers and not even getting close to making any. He’s really, really out of rhythm.

Nurkic fouled out in 13 minutes. That says a lot. These last two games have been rough for him. But he’s still displaying those impressive post moves and precocious defensive ability. When whatever’s happening with the Nuggets gets sorted out, Nurkic will likely shine.

Nate was awesome for a brief stint in the late first and early second half. He sparked the Nuggets with some spectacular circus shots and even brought the team within eight. Then it all went to crap again, of course.

Foye scored a lot in garbage time but — wait a second… when ISN’T it garbage time for the Nuggets these days?

Brian Shaw

Once again there is too much to say about Shaw to be restricted to one box. Refer to the “Things We Saw” for further analysis of whatever it is Shaw’s doing…

Five Things We Saw

OK, how long do we have to wait before officially placing Shaw on the hot seat? Or is he already there? Here’s the problem: It’s still really, really early and this Nuggets team has the talent to be competitive this year. What’s going to totally suck is if the Nuggets continue to play like this for 30 more games, then decide to get rid of Shaw and abruptly go on a run to finish off the season, and in the process distancing themselves from a top lottery pick while also not making a playoff push. This team either needs to suck hard all year (not preferable) or actually play to its full potential and give the fans a young, exciting, energetic team to watch on a nightly basis (highly preferable). Either way, that decision needs to be made soon. Whatever it is that’s poisoning the Nuggets needs to be resolved so that everyone involved with this team can move forward knowing what to expect. Because whatever this is, it’s totally beyond unacceptable.

Right now there seems to be two emerging schools of thought regarding the Nuggets’ struggles. One one hand, some fans think this falls on the players, that this group isn’t meshing well and nobody is actually showing up to play. On the other hand, there are some who feel a team-wide disaster usually falls upon the head coach’s shoulders. Count me firmly in the second group. Why? Because I don’t buy the idea of team-wide slumps. Players have slumps — individually. When the entire team “slumps” that’s a result of bad coaching or some sort of locker-room trouble. While Gallinari certainly isn’t helping this team win, neither is anybody outside of Foye, Arthur and Gee, and even they look frustrated most of the time.

What gets me is that Shaw basically benched the starting unit the entire second half. They only played in garbage time with about five minutes left in the game and the Kings already up by 30. After the game Shaw said he’ll continue to give the bench guys minutes if the starters don’t show up, even though half the bench is playing like death as well. Here’s the problem with that: When your entire starting unit isn’t showing up yet possesses guys who play on Team USA and have made strong pushes for the All-Star game, that’s not really a recipe for success. The Nuggets bench unit is certainly strong, but in no way does it even compare to the starters. THAT’S WHY THEY’RE THE STARTERS!!! This idea that your bench unit can go out there and win NBA games against DeMarcus Cousins, LeBron James and Blake Griffin is absolutely ludicrous! This team isn’t bereft of talent! Not at all. In fact, I’d argue this team has LOADS of talent. You can’t just switch guys around freely in an attempt to grasp at straws. At some point, Shaw needs to look himself in the mirror and ask what he’s doing wrong rather than what his entire starting five is doing wrong.

To follow up on that last point: Please, please, please, please, please — do not buy into the idea that this team is lottery bound and lacking talent. That could not be further away from the truth. This team has TONS of talent. It has a really good starting five and one of the deepest benches in the NBA. The talent is there to win lots of games this year; what’s not there, however, is the coaching to unite and codify that talent into a winning system that produces desirable results. Again, when the entire team is playing like absolute crap, that’s beyond mere coincidence.

This is tough. It really is. I want to continue to give Brian Shaw the benefit of the doubt, but I just don’t see how I can keep doing it. Seriously, what good coach allows his team to play like this? What coach assumes their starters collectively got together and decided, “Hey, let’s all play like crap, whudda ya say?!” At some point, I can’t just keep watching this and telling myself it’s early, that whatever isn’t working will suddenly pan out perfectly. I just don’t think good basketball coaches let this happen. I mean, the Nuggets aren’t even in these games right now. They’re really not even competitive. Body language is horrendous across the board and Brian Shaw looks like he’s on the verge of tears after every game. Like most fans, I still want to give the team more time. But I also know disaster when I see it and the Nuggets are exactly that at the moment.

Kenneth Faried, PF38 MIN | 5-13 FG | 0-0 FT | 10 REB | 4 AST | 1 STL | 0 BLK | 2 TO | 10 PTS | -8Faried was pretty brutal offensively, missing a ton of close shots and fumbling a few passes that would’ve been bunnies. On the other hand he put up a double-double and some better defensive effort. Denver should not need Faried to score near 20 points to win a game, but at this point they do.

Wilson Chandler, SF31 MIN | 5-15 FG | 3-3 FT | 4 REB | 0 AST | 0 STL | 1 BLK | 2 TO | 14 PTS | 0Aside from a mini scoring run late, Chandler bombed well over 70% of his minutes. It was nice to see him briefly come alive for a stretch where the Nuggets put him in isolations and called a big play for him late. Unfortunately Chandler flubbed the point-blank layup along with all of his opportunities early in the game.

Timofey Mozgov, C16 MIN | 5-7 FG | 0-0 FT | 6 REB | 0 AST | 0 STL | 1 BLK | 3 TO | 10 PTS | -2Stone hands made a rather unwelcome reappearance tonight. Mozgov was also in foul trouble from the start of the game and never shook it off. He started brilliantly, showing a few flashes of rim protection while the Nuggets slugged through another terrible start offensively. Ultimately he couldn’t hold on to the ball or stop fouling enough to stay in the game.

Ty Lawson, PG35 MIN | 1-8 FG | 7-8 FT | 2 REB | 12 AST | 1 STL | 0 BLK | 1 TO | 9 PTS | -1It’s tough to grade Ty here. He is rarely in good position to make a play yet racked up 12 assists to just one turnover. By far the most concerning twist to the Nuggets’ season is the complete failure to put him at the forefront of an offense in which he has more opportunities to score. More on this below…

Arron Afflalo, SG31 MIN | 4-13 FG | 7-7 FT | 2 REB | 2 AST | 0 STL | 0 BLK | 0 TO | 16 PTS | 0I liked Afflalo’s steady game and his willingness to fight his way inside when the Nuggets couldn’t get anything going. Unfortunately his three isn’t falling which is a big part of his role within the Nuggets purported offensive “system.”

Darrell Arthur, PF16 MIN | 2-4 FG | 5-6 FT | 6 REB | 1 AST | 1 STL | 0 BLK | 0 TO | 10 PTS | +1The best game Arthur has played yet. All of his shots were wide open and he finally made a few. It was hard to keep him in the game as he had trouble matching up with the big lineups Sacramento favored all night.

Alonzo Gee, SF6 MIN | 1-2 FG | 0-1 FT | 1 REB | 0 AST | 0 STL | 0 BLK | 1 TO | 2 PTS | -9Shaw went ultra-small with Gee at power forward late in the fourth. It was a panic move as Gee tried to match up with Darren Collison while Lawson had to struggle with the size of Ray McCallum. Needless to say Shaw was forced to abandon it quickly.

Danilo Gallinari, SF14 MIN | 0-6 FG | 0-0 FT | 2 REB | 0 AST | 0 STL | 0 BLK | 1 TO | 0 PTS | -3There’s not much to say, he was awful. Gallo had at least played with confidence and looked for his shot as a starter, but that went out the window tonight. After an air-balled three Gallo forced up everything the rest of the night in an effort to avoid going scoreless, which was unsuccessful.

Jusuf Nurkic, C8 MIN | 1-5 FG | 1-2 FT | 5 REB | 0 AST | 0 STL | 1 BLK | 3 TO | 3 PTS | -1Foul trouble kept him off the floor but he showed a willingness to bang with Cousins, a trait he has shown all season. Nurkic has a bright future if he can clean up the rookie miscues. The guy is constantly getting deep position and doing the dirty work down low. Tough matchup tonight with a premier center in Cousins.

JaVale McGee, C14 MIN | 6-9 FG | 4-4 FT | 4 REB | 0 AST | 0 STL | 4 BLK | 1 TO | 16 PTS | +7He has improved every game since his return to the court. He is, without question, a big presence at the rim and he is starting to regain his timing. JaVale must do a much better job boxing out and keeping his man off the glass but he continues to show improvement after a long time away from the game.

Nate Robinson, PG13 MIN | 4-5 FG | 1-2 FT | 0 REB | 1 AST | 1 STL | 0 BLK | 1 TO | 10 PTS | -4I’m not sure if it was a minute restriction thing but Shaw was reluctant to use his most effective offensive player for longer than short bursts in the second and fourth quarters. Nate can be scary at times but you want to ride him when he is hot. Nate didn’t get enough time with the smaller lineups.

Randy Foye, SG18 MIN | 2-6 FG | 0-0 FT | 0 REB | 2 AST | 0 STL | 0 BLK | 0 TO | 5 PTS | -5He did nothing of note. In another panicky move Shaw inserted a cold Foye for a crucial late possession in the uber-small lineup with Gee and Chandler. It didn’t work. Foye and Nate seem to be stepping on each other’s toes minutes-wise, making it hard for either to get much done in a game.

Brian Shaw
Shaw once again radically altered his game plan, playing a traditional two bigs most of the game before essentially switching to four guards out of the blue. Denver was trying to push the pace all night and couldn’t make shots, even wide open ones. Part of that can’t be blamed on Shaw, along with the Nuggets bigs getting killed on the offensive glass. It’s not all on him but the way he has reacted suggests he does not have a cohesive plan for winning and that does not help.

Five Things We Saw

Offensively foul: The high pick-and-roll has been a staple of the Nuggets offense as long as they’ve had Ty Lawson. It was their bread-and-butter in the half-court for years. Strangely that has all gone away under Brian Shaw. Nowadays the Nuggets play both bigs from the free-throw line down and look to initiate with a post-entry on either side. This leaves Lawson confined to one side of the floor, with 1 or 2 guys to pass to at most. The heavy post play has taken Ty away from the middle of the floor where he is so dangerous. I sincerely hope Denver starts bringing a big out higher, giving Ty more lanes up the middle where he can pass to more than just one or two guys.

Rebounding woes: Denver was outrebounded 50-42 and badly hurt on the offensive glass, where the Kings rebounded 34.2% of their misses. That won’t do for a team that needs to control the ball and push the pace at home. Denver has always struggled keeping teams off the offensive glass and there must be a better team-wide effort in terms of boxing out and preventing second and third shot opportunities.

Glimmer of hope: Denver’s depth was finally on display despite the loss, as the Nuggets put seven scorers in double figures and got balanced production across the starting five and the bench. If the Nuggets can eventually settle on a rotation and weed out the total duds, the Nuggets have a deep and talented team. There is still time for Denver to put it together if leadership can develop a plan.

Shooting off the rails: Denver has not yet shot 40% in a game. They are on course to be among the worst offensive teams in the league. Is it a team-wide slump or a systemic issue all the way through? It’s too early to tell, but things have started off badly.

Home and home: Denver will face the Kings again in Sacramento on Wednesday, when both teams will be rested. The Nuggets must compete harder on the boards and find a way to limit the fouls and make some shots. With a 14-man rotation and the entire team mired in a slump, answers will be difficult to come by.

]]>http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2014/11/03/rapid-reaction-denver-nuggets-110-sacramento-kings-105/feed/91Rapid Reaction: Denver Nuggets 89, Detroit Pistons 79http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2014/10/29/rapid-reaction-denver-nuggets-89-detroit-pistons/
http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2014/10/29/rapid-reaction-denver-nuggets-89-detroit-pistons/#commentsThu, 30 Oct 2014 01:00:00 +0000http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/?p=9303In the first game of the 2014-15 season the Denver Nuggets started off languid but kicked it into high gear late thanks to a standout defensive stint from Alonzo Gee and endless energy from Kenneth Faried. Though it was rough, the Nuggets prevailed by 10 in the end. More analysis below…

What a way to start the season. Faried’s offensive versatility has evolved like I never imagined. His jump shot looks great. He rebounded like a monster. He was really the only Nugget to play great from start to finish. Without Faried the Nuggets don’t win this one… That said — his defense has got to improve. He was largely the reason Josh Smith went off in the first half and largely the reason the Pistons stayed in the game for as long as they did. He’s got to be better on that end of the floor to truly take his team to the next level.

Gallo was rusty. It was good to see him draw fouls — given that’s something the Nuggets were missing last season — however he couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn and was displaced in the fourth quarter by second and third-string subs.

Mozgov put up impressive numbers and it’s true he had some big plays down the stretch, but I’m convinced that at this point in his career he’s been posterized more times than Jenna Jamison. The Pistons bigs pretty much abused him all game long. Furthermore, he made several clumsy turnovers that were fairly elementary plays and cost the Nuggets on more than one occasion. If we don’t let JaVale McGee off the hook for these types of things then we can’t let Mozgov off either.

Afflalo saved the Nuggets in the third quarter nailing one 3-pointer after another. He was the catalyst for the Nuggets’ win and was by far the most aggressive player on the team. The fact he played 40 minutes and closed the game out says all you need to know about how much Shaw reveres him.

Gee was the story of the game for me. His defense was without question the reason the Nuggets sealed the victory in the fourth quarter. When he came in, not only did he hit a big three, he also nabbed a thrifty steal which led to a fastbreak basket and completely locked down D.J. Augustin as well as anybody else he got switched onto. It was pretty crazy seeing him close out the fourth considering he just signed with the Nuggets last month and was considered by many to be the 15th man on the roster. As he proved against the Pistons, his defense can come in handy when the Nuggets need to compile multiple stops.

I thought Chandler had a really solid game defensively. He had active hands and always seemed to be in the right place at the right time. Marlowe said he’s slimmed down 15 pounds over the summer and you can definitely see it. Pairing him with Gee, Arthur and Nurkic could give the Nuggets one heck of a defensive second unit.

The other, other story of the game was this guy. He made a few rookie mistakes, a few bad fouls, but other than that was fantastic in the first regular-season NBA game of his career. He and Chandler were Shaw’s first subs and it was clear why. Nurkic dominated the glass for the short time he was in and made a tremendous impact defensively, diving for lose balls, deflecting passes, doing typical Nurkic things. It’s going to be fascinating watching him grow this year.

JaVale was awful. He couldn’t jump. He got posterized by at least two players. Jonas Jerebko even scored a running sky hook over him at one point. He couldn’t rebound. He couldn’t do anything offensively or defensively. McGee deserves a chance to get healthy before we ultimately write him off, but this was certainly not the type of start he needed to supplant Nurkic in the rotation.

Foye, like Arthur, is another guy who did all the small things that helped the Nuggets win. He won’t get credit for this in the box score, but the Nuggets’ “W” was earned in large part thanks to his veteran awareness and defense.

Brian Shaw
The Nuggets should have come out on fire tonight; instead they looked somnambulatory. This is on Shaw. I give him credit for winning and trotting out a defensive-minded lineup in the fourth quarter, but that’s about it. Here are a few notes that should explain the grade I assigned him:

— The Nuggets had two fastbreak points at the half and finished with 11 on the night. That’s far too few. This team has got to push the pace at home. I greatly appreciate Shaw’s half-court tendencies but he can’t get caught up in being the Anti-George Karl. He’s got an advantage at home and he needs to exploit it.
— The Nuggets’ perimeter defense was atrocious. Gee aside, the Pistons pretty much penetrated at will.
— The ball movement and player movement was way too stagnant. Guys were passing and just standing still afterwords. Shaw needs to make sure his players are passing AND moving. Ball movement without player movement is simply movement without results.
— Nurkic should have played more. Way more. He was one of the five best players for the Nuggets and only logged 13 minutes.
— McGee was in for way too long, especially in the fourth quarter. He had no right to be playing then.
— The rotation in general was too big. There were too many different lineups and for much of the game people seemed disoriented.

Three Things We Saw

There was something missing tonight. I don’t know what it was, but it was palpable. Perhaps everyone was just shaking off the rust? Either way, people looked catatonic and impotent for far too long. The Nuggets have a tough schedule to start the season so they need to get their act together, and fast.

It’s early but I can already tell the Jusuf Nurkic bandwagon — generated and conducted by none other than yours truly — is getting full at an exponential rate. This does not look good for JaVale. People were already tweeting about dumping McGee on Twitter and I do not see this changing anytime soon. McGee vs. Nurkic vs. Mozgov will certainly be one of the more compelling storylines in the early going this season.

As they say, a win’s a win’s a win. Even though it wasn’t pretty the Nuggets managed to start the season off on the right note, which is always a good thing no matter how you slice it.

]]>http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2014/10/29/rapid-reaction-denver-nuggets-89-detroit-pistons/feed/54An optimist’s guide to the 2014-15 Denver Nuggetshttp://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2014/10/28/an-optimists-guide-to-the-2014-15-denver-nuggets/
http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2014/10/28/an-optimists-guide-to-the-2014-15-denver-nuggets/#commentsWed, 29 Oct 2014 00:20:49 +0000http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/?p=9858Over the years I’ve gathered this sneaking suspicion that I — and to some extend Roundball Mining Company — have developed a reputations as a cynic. I’ve never really debunked this sentiment, as there are a lot worse things in this world to be called than cynical (many of which I’ve also been called), however I must confess that the reasoning behind this label has always sort of bugged me. I’ve been pegged a George Karl “hater,” a detractor, but more than anything, a pessimist.

I’ve always found this paradoxical. In my personal life I’m just about as optimistic as it gets. Optimism is my mantra. I even consider myself a student of optimism. I firmly believe its practice engenders true happiness and am an ardent consumer of the studies to prove it. For me, identifying a discouraging pattern and expressing disapproval and frustration with its perpetuity, wanting to explore a different path after coming to terms with these realizations, should never be labeled “pessimistic.” I see that, rather, as optimism enacted. Wanting to take the steps necessary to improve upon something should never be looked at as pessimistic.

So what am I getting at here? What’s the point?

Aside from blowing smoke up my own ass, the point is (if you haven’t already guessed): I’m optimistic — not only about life, but about the 2014-15 Denver Nuggets. And I believe you should be as well. Here are seven reasons why…

7. The Northwest Division isn’t all it’s cracked up to be

For a while there it was looking like the Northwest Division was gonna be one of the tougher divisions in basketball — and to some extent, considering the star players and home court advantages, it still is. But I assure you, it’s not nearly as intimidating as it appeared last year.

For starters, Kevin Love is no longer in Minnesota.

Count that as a win.

The former MVP of the NBA, Kevin Durant, is also going to be sidelined for the first month of the season, during which time the Nuggets face the Thunder twice.

Count that as a win.

Then you have the Utah Jazz who are basically still in the midst of the most half-assed rebuild I’ve ever seen, teeming with low-level starters, youthful role players who’ve yet to blossom into consistent, nightly contributors and a head coach straight out of an L.L. Bean catalog.

Count that as a win.

And while the Portland Trailblazers are gonna be tough all year long — actually, scratch that. They’re just gonna be a pain from start to finish, no gettin’ around it.

The point is, the Nuggets should dispose of the Wolves and Jazz fairly easily throughout the year, winning at least five of the eight games between the two. They should also stand a solid chance of winning two games against the Thunder and at least one against the Blazers. That’s eight of 12 in a division with a championship caliber team, an MVP, a former Rookie of the Year and perhaps the best power forward in the game.

What need be said bout Nurkic that hath not been said already? Nothing! He is a beast and all other beasts pale in comparison! (Perhaps a future tombstone epitaph?)

Nurkic will continue to develop throughout the year, but my favorite predraft prospect is already winning over the hearts of fans across Nuggets Nation, including head coach Brian Shaw, who in recent interviews has hinted at Nurkic playing a significant role for the Nuggets this season. This, of course, is a good thing for precisely two reasons…

One: Nurkic is just flat-out better than a lot of players on the Nuggets roster. Yes, he fouls at an abnormally high rate which is something Shaw certainly needs to monitor, but outside of that impediment Nurkic is proficient in nearly ever category. He’s a major threat in the low post (having already dismantled Taj Gibson in the preseason), has incredible vision and distribution skills for a man (or beast, rather) his size and gives the Nuggets one of the most valuable assets in the NBA, being…

Two: Low-post defense. I cannot stress enough just how important it is to possess mobile bigs who can shuffle their feet and defend one on one at a high level in the NBA. Nurkic does just that. Pairing him and Timofey Mozgov (another solid low-post defender) in the paint will almost entirely negate their opponents’ effectiveness in getting to the hole at times, thus rendering their counterparts jump shooters and therefore one dimensional.

Nurkic is still very young and should run into his fair share of obstacles throughout the year. He’ll also likely see a fluctuation in minutes as he, JaVale McGee and Timofey Mozgov battle for playing time at center. But if he can bring solid low-post defense for 15-20 minutes a night, that will go a long way in solidifying his role on the team as well as improving the Nuggets’ overall win total from a year ago.

5. Arron Afflalo is back…

While I love Jusuf Nurkic I might love Arron Afflalo equally, if not more. The guy is the definition of consummate professional. He does all the right things, says all the right words, never complains, never blames stuff on his teammates and on down the line. He’s a blue-collar, hard-working, regular guy who just so happens to be a really good basketball player as well. And I, for one, could not be happier to have him back with the Nuggets.

Aside from the fact Afflalo is a major upgrade over Randy Foye at the starting shooting guard position and the fact he’s improved his points-per-game and assists-per-game outputs every year since his induction into the NBA eight seasons ago (seriously, how many guys can claim that?), the biggest attribute Afflalo brings to the table, the one thing this team has missed most since his departure in 2012, is leadership. Arron Afflalo is a grown ass man who takes responsibility for his actions and atones for those made by his teammates without even the slightest hint of puerility. He’s a captain amongst deckhands, a player-coach amongst mere players and an (insert something great here) amongst (now insert something not as great here).

In a sense, Afflalo is sort of that missing piece that championship-caliber teams often acquire in the offseason in the hopes of securing a title. And though the Nuggets aren’t quite ready to defeat the San Antonio Spurs in a seven-game series just yet, the principle remains the same.

This is one piece to the puzzle that’s been missing for far too long.

Welcome back Triple A.

4. And so is Danilo Gallinari… AND A LOT OF OTHER PEOPLE!

Let’s recap something here, because I think some fans and some glorified fans who like to hear themselves talk a lot more than regular fans (aka, members of the media) are being flat-out delusional about this.

Danilo Gallinari is without question one of the very best players on this roster. By season’s end he may very well be the best. When he went down with injury over a year and a half ago he was hands down one of the top three players on the Nuggets roster. So why is it exactly that the media and far too many Nuggets fans are predicting this team to win somewhere in the neighborhood of 41 games or less? I don’t know how to say this without my pinky finger just so happening to touch the “Caps Lock” key, but… DANILO “THE ITALIAN STALLION” GALLINARI IS WORTH FIVE FREAKING GAMES ALONE — AT THE VERY FREAKING MINIMUM! AND THIS ISN’T EVEN TO MENTION ARRON “O CAPTAIN! MY CAPTAIN!” AFFLALO, JAVALE “SHAQTIN’ THIS CASH” MCGEE, NATE “THE GREAT(?)” ROBINSON, JUSUF “DRAX” NURKIC OR GARY “HARRY CARAY(???)” HARRIS!!! Why, therefore, would people assume this team is going to win a measly FOUR MORE GAMES than it did last season?!? It just doesn’t make sense. Not even in the slightest sense. Not at all.

Look, it’s ridiculously silly for us to engage in back-and-fourth banter about precisely how many games the Nuggets are going to win this year because none of us are clairvoyants and none of us know what’s going to happen with trades or injuries. But I’m going to venture out on a limb and say this team, if healthy, is fully capable of winning upwards of four to five more games than it did last year after being completely and utterly decimated by injuries for 82 games. And if they don’t, then I guess it’s time we put Brian Shaw under the microscope. But before we get to that theoretically (currently) non-existent plot point in our narrative, let’s keep one thing in mind…

3. Brian Shaw is no longer a rookie

One of the more erroneous and puzzling notions about professional sports coaches — and coaches in general for that matter — is that they are immutable. In the eyes of fans a coach is as good the day they retire as the day they were hired for their first professional gig. In reality we know this not to be true. Look, for example, at the records of first-time head coaches in the NBA. There’s a clear-cut pattern and it’s not exactly one deserving of accolades.

In his first season with the Spurs current reigning NBA Coach of the Year, Gregg Popovich, suffered a similar situation as Brian Shaw, losing most of his roster to injuries and finishing with a paltry 20-62 record. Red Auerbach resigned twice in his first five seasons as head coach before joining the Boston Celtics. Chuck Daly was fired after his first year as head coach. And of course George Karl was fired twice in his first two seasons with the Cavs and Warriors.

What do all these coaches have in common? Aside from designated spots in the Hall of Fame, it’s rings (Karl not included) — 16 combined, to be exact.

Judging Shaw based on one year, his first year as head coach with an injury-depleted roster nonetheless, is the very antithesis of scientific analysis. Sure he made some questionable decisions in his first spell as head coach. Who hasn’t? Who hasn’t experimented with lineups and play calling during the doldrums of a lost season? Hell, even some of the most eminent NBA championship coaches are still making highly questionable decisions in the playoffs and NBA Finals.

Everyone in the world makes mistakes. It’s part of life. What separates the best coaches, the most successful people, the most highly regarded figures of our society is not that they grow incapable of committing mistakes, but that they always learn from them.

At the very least, Shaw deserves a chance to learn from his.

2. The Nuggets are deeper than they’ve been in the last decade

For how many years have we driveled over the Nuggets’ depth? It seems like forever. Every October we list the Nuggets bench as the most threatening asset. And while it’s true that for at least the last five years this team has had one of the better benches in the NBA, I don’t think it’s ever been as good as it is this year.

Assuming the Nuggets start a very respectable lineup of Lawson, Afflalo, Gallinari, Faried and Mozgov, look then at the likely second unit of Robinson (one of the best energy guys in the league), Foye (one of the best 3-point shooters in the league), Chandler (one of the best backup small forwards in the league — perhaps the best), Hickson (…) and Nurkic (looking like one of the best pure centers in the league). While they’re no 1995-96 Chicago Bulls, that’s still one hell of a second unit, one that I’d bet could hang with about five or six starting units in the NBA. And that’s not even including JaVale McGee (one of the best shot blockers in the league), Darrell Arthur (a solid defender and stretch forward), Alonzo Gee (another tenacious wing defender), Gary Harris (who knows where he’ll be by the end of the year) and Erick Green, all of who comprise an additional five-man unit that could just as easily pass as a better bench than those owned by the cellar-dwelling teams in the NBA.

On any given night the Nuggets could utilize a combination of 10-13 legitimate NBA starters and role players to stifle their opponent. And when injuries strike this team should be as prepared as ever to weather the storm — assuming none of those injuries are season ending and obtained by starters, which is a bit of a different story as we well know.

People have compared this year’s Nuggets team favorably to the 2012-13 Nuggets squad that won 57 games. They say it’s deep and that Afflalo is a near equivalent substitute for Andre Iguodala. But I have to strongly disagree. Firstly, that team also had George Karl who knew how to win regular season games like nobody’s business. And as much as I love Afflalo, his defense is nowhere near the level of Iguodala’s, who is perhaps the best wing defender in the NBA. Furthermore, that team was healthy most of the year and had a bench unit that featured Corey Brewer (still one of the best role players in the entire league, evident from his 50-point game last season), Andre Miller (who was without question the best backup point guard in the league at the time), Kosta Koufos (who nobody can deny had an excellent year) and Wilson Chandler (in his best season as a Nugget). That team was simply more talented, more experienced and more poised to win on a nightly basis than the 2014-15 Denver Nuggets.

Rather than drawing parallels with the record-setting 57-win squad, I see this team more as a reincarnation of the 2010-11 post-Carmelo Anthony Nuggets combined with the 2011-12 lockout-shortened 38-win Nuggets. Those were teams that had no standout stars but won many games through the second unit by submitting waves of players with starter-level talent. Guys like Al Harrington, Chris Anderson, J.R. Smith, Raymond Felton, Rudy Fernandez, Corey Brewer, Kosta Koufos and Anthony Carter all contributed to one of the more lethal benches in the league and draw many similarities to the one currently occupied by the 2014-15 Denver Nuggets.

But if you’re still not convinced role players can win you a robust amount of games over the course of an NBA sesaon, consider my last point…

1. Everyone is better

Everyone is better. Everybody on the Nuggets roster — the mainstays, the building blocks, the pillars, the sidekicks, even the coaches — they’re all improved. But mostly, the starters.

Look at the leaps and bounds made by Ty Lawson in his game over the last several years. He’s gone from fringe starter to fringe All-Star. Kenneth Faried is another who’s already far surpassed my expectations when the Nuggets drafted him in 2011. The growth he had in the latter half of last year alone was more than I ever thought possible. And then there’s Mozgov. What can you even say about him other than the fact Tim Connelly doesn’t get near the credit he deserves for re-signing the 7-foot milky White Russian. He’s gone from third-string punching bag to the most beloved big man on a team with JaVale McGee and Jusuf Nurkic, two of the more endearing personalities in the NBA.

Then there are the more nuanced improvements. Yes, Gallinari is coming off a major injury, but he’s looked great in the preseason and any Gallinari is better than no Gallinari.

Improvement.

Afflalo, as mentioned above, has increased his scoring and assists outputs every year in the league.

Improvement.

JaVale McGee is healthy again, and like Gallinari, a healthy JaVale McGee is better than no JaVale McGee.

Improvement.

Same story for Nate Robinson.

Improvement.

And here’s where it gets even more nuanced. Because the Nuggets had so many injuries last year and because those players are now back, this allows those who filled in for them to move back to their natural positions and contributing roles. In this sense, upgrading the shooting guard position (an improvement in itself) now enables Randy Foye to slide into his natural position as backup shooting guard rather than starter.

Improvement.

Gallinari pushes Wilson Chandler again into his seemingly destined role of shadowing the Italian small forward off the bench.

Improvement.

A healthy combination of Ty Lawson and Nate Robinson allows for a solid one-two punch at the point-guard position and prevents Foye from playing combo guard for weeks on end.

Improvement.

J.J. Hickson seeing the least amount of time at center and starting power forward is always a plus.

Improvement. Improvement. Improvement.

The emergence of Timofey Mozgov is an upgrade in itself and allows the best trio of centers in the entire NBA to challenge each other for minutes.

Improvement.

Say what you will of Alonzo Gee, but he’s now an established NBA vet with more than five years of experience in the league including a starting stint in Cleveland and is a major upgrade over Quincy Miller, at least defensively speaking.

Improvement.

And lastly, there are even smaller improvements visible everywhere across the board, from adding a young and promising rookie like Gary Harris, to Darrell Arthur expanding his range, to Tim Connelly looking more and more like a trustworthy, savvy GM, to Brian Shaw emphasizing defense in press conferences, to…

Ah, screw it. Nuggets basketball is back. And if that’s not an improvement in your life, if that’s not something to get excited about, something to look forward to every day, then no amount of writing is ever gonna convince you otherwise.

Yours truly,

A 2014-15 Denver Nuggets optimist.

]]>http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2014/10/28/an-optimists-guide-to-the-2014-15-denver-nuggets/feed/5#NuggetsRank No. 9: Nate Robinsonhttp://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2014/10/05/nuggetsrank-9-nate-robinson/
http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2014/10/05/nuggetsrank-9-nate-robinson/#commentsMon, 06 Oct 2014 01:09:04 +0000http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/?p=9499For the third year in a row Roundball Mining Company will feature a series of articles ranking who our writers feel are the best players on the Denver Nuggets roster. This has come to be known as #NuggetsRank and occurs in conjunction with ESPN.com’s annual #NBARank series where all 500 players in the NBA are voted worst to first. Our writers have been polled and the scores tallied, creating as close as you’ll get to a definitive echelon of the entire Denver Nuggets roster. Checking in at number nine is veteran point guard Nate Robinson.

Just like last year, Robinson was one of the most polarizing players for our writers to evaluate. Disagreements about other players tend to center on how well they’ll realize their potential, but Robinson, now in his tenth NBA season, is a known quantity. Disagreements about Robinson center on how valuable his known strengths are and how costly his known shortcomings are.

Like starting point guard Ty Lawson, Robinson is one of the fastest players in the league with the ball in his hands. Like Lawson, Robinson uses his speed to break down opposing defenses. But unlike Lawson, Robinson is much more willing to shoot from outside (40% of his attempts last season, compared to 25% for Lawson) and less likely to get all the way to the rim (25% of his attempts last season, compared to 31% for Lawson). His outside shooting is good, but his midrange shooting was particularly atrocious last season. With better spacing from his teammates, look for more shots at the rim and fewer contested jumpers.

Robinson has been inconsisent creating for teammates throughout his career, assisting on over 30% of baskets when on the court in 2011-12 and 2012-13, but barely 21% last season. With good shooters in Afflalo and Gallinari joining Foye and Chandler on the wings, he will be able to take more of a facilitator role than last season. It wouldn’t be surprising if he put up a career high in assists this season.

Defensively, Robinson lacks size but makes up for it in strength, tenacity, and heart. The former Washington Husky cornerback is often described in terms like scrappy, bulldog, and junkyard dog. He has played for strong defensive teams in Boston and Chicago and can be an adequate defender within a system, but he can be exposed when forced to close out or switch onto a much bigger player. The return of strong wing defenders in Afflalo and Gallinari should help keep him out of defensive trouble.

Ultimately, Robinson’s main role is to keep the team in attack mode when Ty Lawson is on the bench and to serve as a veteran mentor to help Lawson step up his game when he’s on the court. He’s the only current Nugget with NBA finals experience, and a relentless competitor. He speaks of working hard, playing hard, challenging teammates, and trying to leave his mark on the franchise. As one of the team’s oldest players and the leader of the bench unit, he should have the opportunity to do exactly that this year.