BludgerTrack: 50.0-50.0

The Coalition lead in Newspoll causes the two parties to reach parity on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, while Tony Abbott pulls ahead of Bill Shorten on net approval.

New results from Newspoll, Essential Research and Morgan has put BludgerTrack back to the position of two-party parity it was at three weeks ago, after which Labor was up to 51.8% and then 50.9%. They have also ironed out the brief slump recorded by the Greens last week, who have progressed from 11.3% to 8.9% to 10.4%. This week’s gain has come entirely at the expense of Labor, with the Coalition vote unchanged. On the seat projection, the Coalition is back in majority government territory, the meter having ticked in their favour by two seats in New South Wales and one each in Queensland and Western Australia. After a quiet spot last week, new leadership figures have emerged from Newspoll and Essential Research, and they find Tony Abbott with a rare lead over Bill Shorten on net approval, although preferred prime minister remains in the stasis it assumed in early December.

Also note that coverage of the Western Australian Senate count is ongoing on the dedicated thread, with a Liberal victory in the final seat looking increasingly likely.

IAN MACDONALD's business partner, who is considered a ''crucial witness'' in a corruption inquiry is understood to have checked himself into a mental-health centre.
John Gerathy, the business partner and lawyer of disgraced former minister Ian Macdonald, has told the Independent Commission Against Corruption he is ill and unable to give evidence.

Climate Change deniers big backers have moved on to the next stage .From denying man made climate change to accepting it BUT saying it is all good.

Or else they admit it’s real, and admit we have to do something about right away but, when asked about specific events – bushfires, cycloines, droughts, floods etc. – deny that any of them are down to climate change, indeed implying that climate change has no discernable effects at all.

IAN MACDONALD's business partner, who is considered a ''crucial witness'' in a corruption inquiry is understood to have checked himself into a mental-health centre.
John Gerathy, the business partner and lawyer of disgraced former minister Ian Macdonald, has told the Independent Commission Against Corruption he is ill and unable to give evidence.

Scots are 5.3 million of the UK’s 63.7 million people – about one in twelve. An independent Scotland will be comparable in population to Denmark, Finland, Slovakia, Singapore (and Queensland and Victoria) and a bit more than Ireland and New Zealand. There’s no obvious impediment to Scotland being a viable independent nation, if that’s what the Scots want, especially with North Sea oil.

So if they gained independence I expect that they would take on about one twelth of the debt (so a bit over £100 billion), one twelth of the defence assets, local roads and hospitals and an equitable agreement regarding North Sea oil.

But from what I’ve read, the polls are against it and with a well-funded No campaing gearing up in the coming months, I am not expecting to see any change.

Former foreign minister Bob Carr has published private text messages between himself and Julia Gillard to reveal the “extraordinary” level of influence the pro-Israel lobby had on the former prime minister’s office.

He “claims” he did so in the public interest.

I wonder how many pages he devoted to telling people what he knew about the corruption of Obeid etc and what he did about it?

Yes he had retired, but it must have developed on his watch and he was still a senior Labor figure while the corruption flourished.

That is far more in the public interest.

He may think he is smart writing the stuff he did. I see him as just another arsehole who ‘achieved’ fcuk all in his time as FM.

All he is doing is tearing the scab of destructive infighting within Labor yet again – and spitting in the faces of Labor voters.

The NT confiscation legislation which the High Court okayed today seems to permit the government to take property which is legitimately acquired if used as part of a criminal pursuit eg – conduct criminal business from it.

Employment increased to 11,531,600.
Unemployment increased to 730,400 from a revised February 2014 estimate.
Unemployment rate increased by less than 0.1 pts to 6.0%.
Participation rate remained steady at 64.7%.
Aggregate monthly hours worked increased 2.8 million hours (0.2%) to 1,615.6 million hours.

No big change in labour market trends in March. Job growth exists, but at a rate that is slower than labour supply/ population growth. Unemployment continues to edge upwards.

Let’s just restore Israel to the 1947 borders and sit back and watch what happens. We all know that the Palestinians and the rest of the Arab World are gentle, peace loving peoples.

Supporters of Israel should perhaps be a little smarter than relying on a belief, founded only fundamental racism, that somehow the ‘Arab World’ is somehow innately more violent than any other race or part of the world. It is more silly than the frequent suggestion that the military might of the Arab world is a real and present danger to the ongoing viability of the Israeli state such that all manner of the grossest and most vile human rights abuses are not only defensible but somehow honorable.

zoidlord people can’t have it both ways, blame Abbott when the rate goes up but say it’s nothing to do with him when the rate goes down. I can live with a consistent opinion either way. Personally I think governments have some impact on jobs but usually not a significant impact. Of couse when you have multi-billion $ stimulus programs then the impact becomes more significant.

Unemployment rate is based upon a Bureau of Statistics sanple of about 300,000 people. For typical unemployment rates (i.e under 10%), the margin of error is about 0.1%. So the rate will tend to jump around by 0.1% from month to month, but a drop from 6.1% to 5.8% does look like good news.

So we are saying that when the forecast was for less jobs to be created and the unemployment rate to increase when in fact jobs created was higher and the unemployment rate actually reduced is not positive news.

Employment increased to 11,531,600.
Unemployment increased to 730,400 from a revised February 2014 estimate.
Unemployment rate increased by less than 0.1 pts to 6.0%.
Participation rate remained steady at 64.7%.
Aggregate monthly hours worked increased 2.8 million hours (0.2%) to 1,615.6 million hours.

zoidlord I understand all that and accept the employment market is still weak. Still a lot of hard work to be done to get back to where we were in 2008. I just take some comfort that the situation is better than expected. I guess I am just a glass half-full type of person.

Has not Israel fought a number of wars against Arab neighbours and suffered constant Terrorist attack? Pointing out the facts is not about race.

As for you rclaims about human rights abuses – the IDF and Israeli justice system takes action against Israeli soldiers who break the law against Palestinians. Have the Palestinians ever done such a thing?

“The Labour Force Survey is based on a multi-stage area sample of private dwellings (currently approximately 26,000 houses, flats, etc.) and a list sample of non-private dwellings (hotels, motels, etc.), and covers approximately 0.32% of the civilian population of Australia aged 15 years and over.”

So the sample size would be closer to about 50,000 people and the margin of error would be about 0.2%. The drop is still good news.

About this blog

William Bowe is a doctoral candidate with the University of Western Australia’s Discipline of Political Science and International Relations. He has been running the electoral studies blog The Poll Bludger since January 2004, independently until September 2008 and thereafter with Crikey.