UPDATED: Projected Week 4 BCS Standings

Kenneth Massey’s ratings finally were released Monday, and once they were plugged into the grid an interesting thing happened — a bunch of movement occurred in the projections of the BCS standings. Let’s take a look at the way things line up, with four of the six BCS computers accounted for (neither Peter Wolfe nor Anderson & Hester will release rankings until the first weekend of October) and the coaches’ poll (the Harris Poll also withholds rankings until October). The four computers are averaged, as they would be were there six; standing in for the Harris as the second human poll is the former second poll of the BCS, the AP poll.

PV

CM

JS

RB

KM

COACH

AP

BCS

1

1

↔

Alabama

18

24

25

7

0.740

1473

0.9986

1499

0.9993

0.9127

2

2

↔

Oregon

23

21

23

9

0.760

1371

0.9295

1414

0.9427

0.8774

3

4

↑

Florida State

19

17

12

16

0.640

1306

0.8854

1340

0.8933

0.8063

4

3

↓

LSU

7

20

24

0.510

1361

0.9227

1346

0.8973

0.7767

5

6

↑

Stanford

25

22

22

24

0.930

949

0.6434

1055

0.7033

0.7589

6

8

↑

Kansas State

20

19

20

18

0.770

1000

0.6780

1067

0.7113

0.7198

7

7

↔

South Carolina

14

16

19

12

0.610

1149

0.7790

1147

0.7647

0.7179

8

9

↑

Notre Dame

24

23

21

23

0.910

836

0.5668

1003

0.6687

0.7151

9

5

↓

Georgia

15

18

15

0.480

1224

0.8298

1245

0.8300

0.7133

10

10

↔

Florida

22

25

5

20

0.720

817

0.5539

864

0.5760

0.6166

11

11

↔

West Virginia

13

2

6

8

0.290

1137

0.7708

1045

0.6967

0.5858

12

12

↔

Texas

12

15

21

0.480

924

0.6264

856

0.5707

0.5590

13

13

↔

USC

9

18

0.270

813

0.5512

801

0.5340

0.4517

14

14

↔

Oklahoma

12

13

0.250

699

0.4739

611

0.4073

0.3771

15

17

↑

Oregon State

21

13

9

25

0.680

220

0.1492

451

0.3007

0.3766

16

15

↓

TCU

1

10

11

0.220

705

0.4780

616

0.4107

0.3695

17

18

↑

Michigan State

14

17

19

0.500

404

0.2739

348

0.2320

0.3353

18

16

Clemson

4

7

8

4

0.230

560

0.3797

588

0.3920

0.3339

19

20

↑

Ohio State

16

6

13

0.350

0.0000

633

0.4220

0.2573

20

19

↓

Louisville

11

3

0.140

493

0.3342

414

0.2760

0.2501

21

21

↔

Mississippi State

17

2

0.190

349

0.2366

246

0.1640

0.1969

22

23

↑

Rutgers

8

5

7

10

0.300

98

0.0664

128

0.0853

0.1506

23

29

↑

Iowa State

9

2

22

0.330

45

0.0305

16

0.0107

0.1237

24

22

↓

Boise State

8

16

0.240

69

0.0468

114

0.0760

0.1209

25

24

↓

Nebraska

0.000

327

0.2217

179

0.1193

0.1137

26

26

↔

Wisconsin

11

15

0.260

102

0.0692

13

0.0087

0.1126

27

25

↓

Baylor

14

0.140

101

0.0685

92

0.0613

0.0899

28

33

↑

Texas Tech

6

17

0.230

17

0.0115

10

0.0067

0.0827

29

35

↑

Louisiana Tech

3

14

0.170

28

0.0190

7

0.0047

0.0645

30

34

↑

UCLA

11

0.110

33

0.0224

79

0.0527

0.0617

31

28

↓

Northwestern

5

0.050

96

0.0651

89

0.0593

0.0581

32

27

↓

Michigan

10

0.100

57

0.0386

44

0.0293

0.0560

33

31

↓

Oklahoma State

1

3

0.040

154

0.1044

12

0.0080

0.0508

34

32

↓

Arizona

3

4

5

0.120

16

0.0108

17

0.0113

0.0474

35

30

↓

Ohio

10

0.100

13

0.0088

40

0.0267

0.0452

36

44

↑

Purdue

6

0.060

4

0.0027

5

0.0033

0.0220

37

37

↔

Cincinnati

1

0.010

42

0.0285

10

0.0067

0.0150

38

36

↓

Miami (FL)

4

0.040

2

0.0014

1

0.0007

0.0140

39

39

↔

Texas A&M

0.000

31

0.0210

11

0.0073

0.0095

40

38

↓

Minnesota

2

0.020

11

0.0075

0.0000

0.0092

41

40

↓

Arizona State

0.000

22

0.0149

8

0.0053

0.0067

42

41

↓

Virginia Tech

0.000

0.0000

26

0.0173

0.0058

43

43

↔

Tennessee

0.000

6

0.0041

10

0.0067

0.0036

44

42

↓

Missouri

1

0.010

0.0000

0.0000

0.0033

45

45

↔

Western Kentucky

0.000

5

0.0034

0.0000

0.0011

46

46

↔

Louisiana-Monroe

0.000

4

0.0027

0.0000

0.0009

47

47

↔

San Jose State

0.000

2

0.0014

0.0000

0.0005

48

48

↔

Washington

0.000

2

0.0014

0.0000

0.0005

Let’s look at Massey’s numbers for a second. Like the Colley Matrix, the Massey Ratings are hot on Pac-12 teams. Oregon State is ranked #1 in Massey’s eyes, followed by Stanford at #2. Notre Dame is #3. The biggest upward trend was with Iowa State, who benefited from Massey’s #4 ranking to move from #29 in the BCS projections into the top 25 at #23.

The biggest losers? The teams the human eyeballs seem to love best. Without the crutch of a preseason poll to lean upon for the order of teams in any given human ballot, the computers have had no problem radically reshuffling the deck. The Massey Ratings hate Alabama (#19), Oregon (#17), Florida State (#10) and LSU (#28). Only the Seminoles moved upward, passing the Tigers into the #3 spot in the BCS projections.

The biggest mover overall (outside the top 25) was Purdue, whose #20 spot in the Massey Ratings allowed the Boilermakers to jump eight spots to #36. The most painful drop had to be Georgia, who fell from #5 to #9 after failing to be ranked in Massey’s top 25. In the process the Bulldogs were passed by SEC East rival South Carolina (#7).

Just remember, everyone… in a few weeks we get two more computers to complain about as well as a whole new batch of voters less reliable than the AP. At least there’s just two more years…

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