Clarke is tipped to make way for IDS: Welfare reformer may get justice post in reshuffle

A new role? Ian Duncan Smith has been a success as Justice Secretary and senior Tories would like to see him promoted

Iain Duncan Smith is being tipped to take Kenneth Clarke’s job as Justice Secretary in an autumn reshuffle.

David Cameron is planning to shake up his top team and has already met his inner circle to prepare the ground.

One Cabinet source suggested employment minister Chris Grayling, who is on the right of the Tory Party, would step up into Mr Duncan Smith’s job.

However it is far from clear that the shake-up in September would be welcomed by the Work and Pensions Secretary.

Mr Duncan Smith is pioneering a series of reforms, including a universal benefit which is due to be introduced next year.

It would also be unusual to appoint a non-lawyer as Justice Secretary.

Senior Tories point out that Mr Duncan Smith is passionate about the need to reform the criminal justice system.

For his part, Mr Clarke is seen to have undermined the Tories’ traditionally strong position on law and order, while failing to convince the party’s MPs of the need to reform short prison sentences and focus on rehabilitation and reoffending rates.

The 72-year-old is telling colleagues he wants to remain in the Cabinet, but may be offered the post of Leader of the House of Commons, a traditional last job for Cabinet grandees.

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‘For all his virtues, Ken hasn’t been able to persuade the Conservative family of the problems that everyone knows need to be addressed,’ said the source.

‘But when Iain speaks about the failures of the prison service, the problems of drugs and the lack of education in prisons, the party listens. There is an argument that only he could really bring people along with this agenda.’

Moving Mr Duncan Smith would be a risk, as welfare reform and education are seen as the Coalition’s two clear success stories.

Iain Duncan-Smith could be about to replace Kenneth Clarke as Justice Secretary, and the two have some history, with Duncan Smith beating Clarke in a 2001 leadership election contest

His seniority as a former party leader has meant the department has been able to stand its ground in conflicts over spending with the Treasury, and critics fear its position might be weakened if he is shifted.

The Cabinet source conceded the move could take place only if Mr Duncan Smith wanted a new challenge.

Chris Grayling is hotly tipped to take Duncan Smith's position as Work and Pensions Secretary, if the expected reshuffle takes place

A complicating factor in Mr Cameron’s planned reshuffle is the cloud hanging over Jeremy Hunt.

He had been tipped for the health brief or the party chairmanship, but Mr Cameron was reluctant to shift him before the Olympics, which he is overseeing as Culture Secretary.

After his appearance before Lord Justice Leveson’s inquiry over his dealings with the Murdoch empire, Mr Hunt looks likely to stay where he is pending the inquiry’s final report.

Some Whitehall sources say though that his department could be abolished.

Middle-ranking ministers being tipped for promotion include housing minister Grant Shapps, who is in pole position to become party chairman, disability minister

Maria Miller, tipped as Welsh Secretary, and planning minister Greg Clark, who could take over at the Environment department.

Cabinet Office minister Mark Harper, who is Nick Clegg’s Tory number two, is also in line for a Cabinet post. ‘It is the most difficult Tory job in the government and Mark has not put a foot wrong,’ said one source.

Environment Secretary Caroline Spelman, Commons Leader Sir George Young and Welsh Secretary Cheryl Gillan are widely tipped for the axe.

Party chairman Baroness Warsi is likely to be moved after being cleared of wrongdoing over her expenses – possibly to International Development or Northern Ireland.