According to Mark Halperin's The Page, Barack Obama's campaign manager David Plouffe just announced on a conference call that they are going up with television ads in the final days in key and newly minted swing states such as North Dakota, Georgia, and John Sidney McCain III's adopted state of Arizona.

It's great to be expanding the field so much this close to the election. Barack Obama has several paths to victory, which is a welcome relief that Democrats won't have to bank on one certain state for once.

Thursday, October 30, 2008

In a desperate attempt to save her US Senate seat in North Carolina, Republican Elizabeth ("Liddy") Dole has aired one of the most despicable political ads in recent memory. Democratic challenger, Kay Hagan, has surged ahead of Dole in recent Tarheel State polls. Apparently Ms. Dole will do or say anything to hold on to power, as evidenced by the attack ad which accuses Hagan of being "godless".

*Note: Beginning today, and continuing for the rest of this election cycle, we will be using the Gallup Daily Tracking poll of likely voters rather than registered voters. At about this point in past campaigns, polls of likely voters have become more meaningful than those of registered voters. The other three tracking polls in our daily posting have already been using likely voter models for at least a couple of weeks.

BREAKING NEWS: Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY) will hit the campaign trail again this Sunday, November 2nd, for Bruce Lunsford, Democratic candidate for the US Senate in Kentucky. Lunsford is locked in a neck-and-neck race with incumbent Republican Senator, and Senate Minority Leader, Mitch McConnell for the Bluegrass seat.

The announcement of Senator Clinton's return to Kentucky was made in a press release issued just minutes ago by the Lunsford campaign. This is Clinton's second trip to Kentucky on behalf of Lunsford. She campaigned for the Democratic candidate last month in Lexington and Pikeville. Former President Bill Clinton made two stops for Lunsford in Kentucky last Friday, headlining events in Paducah and Bowling Green.

Hillary's campaign swing on Sunday will include stops in Louisville and Hazard. More details will be released shortly.

Late polls in North Carolina show a close race between Kay Hagan and Republican Liddy Dole. For Democrats to get to 60 seats in the Senate, this is a must-win contest. This is not a time to become complacent.

Liddy Dole is out of touch with North Carolina residents. No wonder every major newspaper in North Carolina has endorsed Hagan. In six days, voters in North Carolina will have the chance to fire Dole. However, your help will be needed to achieve that goal.

Sign up today to become a Hagan volunteer, making calls into North Carolina. You do not have to live in North Carolina to help. For more information, contact the Hagan campaign by phone at (336) 617-7416.

Not only do these clowns feel no shame, they cannot be embarrassed. O'Reilly has McCain barely winning in the electoral college while Morris has Obama winning in a landslide. Besides Morris' since of reality, he suddenly feels compelled to assure the Fox News audience of this breaking news: "McCain Closing the Gap." Morris by the way also has Tennessee listed as a tossup state and Obama winning 355-133.

Monday, October 27, 2008

Democratic Senate candidate Bruce Lunsford routed incumbent Republican Senator Mitch McConnell in a debate that was televised statewide this evening. The Senate Minority Leader and twenty-four year veteran of the US Senate was repeatedly left speechless under relentless questioning by the Bluegrass Democrat.

McConnell was unable to answer questions about his refusal to call the current economic crisis anything more than a "slowdown". He could not explain his vote for the $700 billion bailout of Wall Street, nor was the Republican able muster a defense of his votes to spend $600 billion in Iraq while at the same giving tax cuts to the wealthiest Americans.

Lunsford hammered McConnell for leading a record number of filibusters in the current Congress. Mitch was unable to justify his obstructionist record in the Senate as America veered towards its worst economic crisis in nearly eighty years.

"Once again, the great and powerful Mitch McConnell loses his voice when it's time to defend the atrocious record he's piled up after 24 years in the Senate and 40 years on the public payroll," Lunsford spokesman Cary Stemle said. "Kentucky voters deserve to know, and yet McConnell has nothing to offer."

Saturday, October 25, 2008

Each day, the guys at Politico.com give a 'winner of the day' award to either John McCain or Barack Obama, depending on how they perceive the day to have gone for each candidate. They also write a little piece describing the reasons for their decision. Until now, they've done a fairly good job, I think.

Today, however, the Politico gurus must have been struck by a case of mass stupidity or maybe they experienced a massive drop in their collective IQs. Whatever the case, they decided that McCain had 'won' the day. Their decision would be hard enough to fathom under any rationale (given the current state of the race and of McCain's campaign), but wait till you read their reasons. McCain won the day, they argued, for "soldiering on amid a debacle".

It's a good thing guys like these weren't covering the Battle of the Little Big Horn. The Politico headline the next day would have screamed: General Custer Wins The Day!

John McCain hasn't found the game changer he's been looking for. For McCain, game changers probably don't exist unless you count Sarah Palin. One could argue that she changed the course of McCain's campaign from the very beginning. McCain's sinking ship has been on the wrong course from the very moment he chose Palin as his running mate. When all is said and done, historians might look at the Palin pick as one of those rare moments when the veep pick actually did matter.

Over the last few weeks, we've witnessed very little change in polling. What small gains there may have been for John McCain have now evaporated (see dead cat bounce). Regular national polls and daily trackers are all now starting to come together for the first time. All of them have the race close to or at double digits. State polling continues to favor Obama as well.

From our last projection, John McCain loses 14 electoral votes while Barack Obama's score remains unchanged. Polls in North Dakota and Indiana put the race at a dead heat. As a result, both states shift from leans McCain to tossup this week. Voters in North Dakota have been surveyed just three times in October. Obama has led in two of those polls while one other shows the race a tie. Polls back home in Indiana show a close race although Obama has led in three of the last four.

Although we're not adding any states to Obama's total, he has strengthened his lead in these states: New Mexico, Minnesota and Maine. As a result, these states move from leans Obama to solid Obama. We now show Obama with a solid lead in all of the Kerry/Gore states (264 electoral votes).

McCain's sole route to 270 now runs through Pennsylvania. For him to win there, it will take even more than a game changer. Something along the lines of divine order may be McCain's only hope. The latest polls in the Keystone state show Obama gripping a double digit lead.

Friday, October 24, 2008

"The cause of Edmund Burke, Leo Strauss, Robert Nisbet and William F. Buckley Jr. is now in the hands of Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity–and Sarah Palin. Reason has been overwhelmed by propaganda, ideas by slogans and learned manifestoes by direct-mail hit pieces."

Brian Schaffner of Pollster.com examines one possibility of why we're seeing disparity between different national polls. Perhaps the difference lies in the cell phone factor.

One can get lost in the deluge of polls which, just this week, show anything from a narrow 1% Obama lead (AP-Gfk) to a substantial margin of 14% (Pew). One pattern that seems to have become particularly evident this week is that the polls showing the biggest leads for Obama tend to be those that are polling the cell phone only population (such as Pew, CBS/New York Times, and ABC/Washington Post). We know from the recent Pew report that excluding cell phone only respondents from the sampling frame reduces Obama's margin by 2-3%, even when the sample is weighted. But how does this affect the national trend estimate, which takes into account all polling?

The Political Carnival reports this morning that former Massachusetts Governor William Weld will endorse Democrat Barack Obama later today at a news conference in New Hampshire. Weld, a life-long Republican, was Governor of the Bay State from 1991 to 1997.

Weld had close ties to Ronald Reagan, who appointed him United States Attorney in 1981. Although Weld was previously a close political ally of former New York City Mayor Rudi Giuliani, Weld supported Mitt Romney in the Republican Presidential primary earlier this year.

In a prepared statement, Weld praises Obama's steady leadership, good judgment and abilities to unify people from all parts of the political spectrum. He calls Obama a "once in a lifetime candidate who will transform our politics and restore America's standing in the world."

The Associated Press television writer, David Bauder, says former White House press secretary Scott McClellan is voting for Barack Obama. In a short article posted on ABC News Online, McClellan, a lifelong Republican, is quoted as saying that Obama has "the best chance of changing the way Washington works and getting things done".

Is anyone keeping a running count of the number of rats leaving the sinking McCain-Palin ship?

To paraphrase a certain former Secretary of Defense: "You go through the last two weeks of the election with the ad buys you have, not the ones you might want."

Who would have thought the Republican nominee for President would be flat broke going into the homestretch of the Presidential campaign? But, according to the Associated Press, John Sidney McCain III is just that.

The AP is reporting that according to his campaign's pre-general election report (which runs until October 15th) that after his outstanding debts McCain only has around $24 million left in the bank. Furthermore, through their rather conservative projections they estimate that as of this writing that number is now closer to $12 million (no word on Obama's current cash on hand take yet, but it's expected to be exponentially higher). No wonder he's trimming and even drastically cutting ad buys across the board in states he must win. The decision to take public financing, even his former aides such as Bob Shrum admit, ruined John Kerry's chances in 2004 (their decision to take public financing made them unable to counter the Swift Boat attacks); and they seem to have put a real damper of John Sidney McCain's chances as well.

Keep in mind that McCain is still relying heavily on RNC ad money to keep him visible on the air, but he still is in a tough situation financially speaking, as those ads are not subject to the same discounts from TV stations as candidate ads are. Also, look for the RNC to divert money to key Senate and House races in the coming days.

I've been following Presidential election campaigns closely since the Kennedy-Nixon race of 1960 and I don't think I've ever heard anything like this. Citing the Associated Press, Wonkette is reporting that Republican nominee John McCain will not address his supporters election night at the 'Victory Party' planned for a Phoenix hotel. Instead, senior aides to the Arizona Senator say that he will deliver "post-election" remarks to a small group of reporters and "guests" on the hotel lawn. No indication what "post-election" might mean. The evening of November 4th? The morning of November 5th? Thanksgiving weekend? New Years Eve?

Say what, Mr. McCain? No address to your supporters? No "thank you" delivered to them directly? You gotta be kidding. No victory claim (in the very unlikely event you manage to pull that off)? No concession and congratulations to Barack Obama (looking to be very necessary at this point) in front of your supporters? What the heck are you thinking?

So here we are, some eleven days and 12 hours until the first polls open on election day, and you, Mr. McCain, are already leaking your intention to display once again the petulant, unsportsmanlike behavior on election night that has become the hallmark of your failed campaign.

The folks at the RNC must be popping aspirin like jelly beans today. Just look at these numbers for the Big Sky State from a newly-released poll conducted by Montana State University.

Obama: 44%

McCain: 40%

The Illinois Senator out-polled McCain among Big Sky independents, while both candidates held their party bases by large margins. As we have seen in other polls, the economy was the number one concern among Montana voters, giving Obama his edge with the independent bloc. The poll was conducted October 16 through October 20.

This video features a number of Republicans and other conservatives giving their reasons for supporting Barack Obama for President. These are not celebrities or politicians but just everyday folks. I think even Sarah Palin would describe them as 'average Joes' living in the 'pro-America' areas of the United States.

As if the polls today weren't bad news enough for the McCain-Palin ticket, two more well-known Republicans announced their support for Barack Obama this morning.

In Minnesota, former Republican governor Arne Carslon told a group of Obama voters at a rally on the steps of the state capitol in St. Paul that he is voting for the Illinois Senator. Carlson, who served two terms as governor of the Land of Ten Thousand Lakes from 1991 through 1998, praised Obama's economic plans, his stance on the Iraq war and his environmental policy.

In Arizona, CC Goldwater announced her endorsement of Barack Obama in an op-ed piece written for The Huffington Post. Ms. Goldwater is a highly successful filmmaker and granddaughter of the founder of the modern Conservative movement, the late Senator Barry Goldwater (R-AZ). In making her support for Obama public, Ms. Goldwater cited attributes the Democratic nominee has in common with her late grandfather: honesty, integrity, support for personal freedom and a political discourse free from fear tactics.

What could be the final chapter in the career of Senator Ted Stevens began this afternoon.

A jury began deliberating earlier whether to convict Stevens on seven felony counts related to going out of his way to disclose numerous gifts he received. The last US Senator to be convicted of a felony was in 1981 when Harrison Williams was found guilty of bribery and conspiracy. Only five sitting US Senators have been found guilty of felonies while in office.

Mark Begich, is poised to become the first Democratic Senator from Alaska since 1974. He has led by small margins in recent polls. The soon to be heard verdict is sure to have a profound impact on the outcome of the race.

Note: Readers who are interested in a thorough and thoughtful analysis of all of the current election cycle's daily tracking polls, their strengths and weaknesses, should read what Nate Silver has to say.

It's not nice to call names. But it made me laugh when reading Wonkette's evaluation of wingnut Bachman (video). Woops! Something about a duck-faced lunatic...

More importantly, he points out the need for pollsters to get on the ball in Minnesota. We're all waiting with baited breath for a new poll from MN-06. Tinklenberg, a previous unknown, could be leading and we'd never know it. He wasn't trailing by all that much even before Bachman opened her piehole. And since her tirade, he's raised nearly as much money as she has.

One man who really can't be happy about all this is Norm Coleman who recently called for an end to all negative ads. As if the Republican brand needed more help. A Star-Tribune poll from yesterday shows Coleman trailing by 3.

The St. Petersburg Times reports that its focus group of undecided Florida voters has shifted dramatically towards Barack Obama in the past two months. Interviews conducted with these voters in late August found them "decidedly antagonistic" towards the Illinois Senator, with a number of them leaning towards voting for Republican John McCain. Now, however, nine of the carefully selected undecideds are planning to vote for Obama, while one remains "torn" and only one is supporting McCain.

What has pushed these voters into the Obama camp? In two words: Sarah Palin. Many in the focus group view the Alaska Governor as "unqualified", "divisive" and "grating". Also figuring prominently in these voters' decision to vote for Obama was a dramatic change in their perceptions of his character, integrity and willingness to seek advice from all quarters, even from those who might disagree with some of his policy positions.

Citing his observations of the two Presidential candidates over the past two months, one previously undecided voter who is now going to vote for Obama, said, "I was looking at their character... watching them, their movements, hand gestures, faces... you can tell."

Here is a great example of political creativity by a progressive blogger with a bias for action. Incumbent Republican Senator Saxby Chambliss is being challenged by Democrat Jim Martin in Georgia's US Senate race.

Waging a vigorous campaign over the past couple of months, Martin has closed the gap and now has Chambliss in a race too close to call. All Democrats who recall the vicious smear campaign Chambliss conducted against former Senator (and Vietnam war hero) Max Cleland in 2002 will want to help Martin retire the Georgia Republican for good.

Please visit the Martinwebsite and make a donation to Martin's campaign today.

A seat in the US Senate with Saxby Chambliss' name on it is no longer safe. The Washington Post this morning has a write-up about Democrat Jim Martin and his sudden surge in polls. Exposing Chambliss as being at the "root of the problem," Martin continues to hammer away at his opponent's poor economic track record.

Martin has a clear momentum advantage and plenty enough time to make up what little margin he's behind. ElectBlue currently projects the race to be leaning Republican for the moment. Pollster.com projects the race as too close to call (chart below). Click here for Washington Times story.

With a growing concern of a total meltdown of the election system this year, we will be releasing specific details of what we find in our State Election Readiness Survey.

We begin our research today in Nevada. After speaking to a public official from the Nevada Secretary of State office today, we find that Nevada has taken steps to increase the numbers of voting machines and polling places in the state's two largest counties.

Here are the details of those changes as outlined by the Nevada Secretary of State:

Anticipating record turnout, Nevada has increased the number of polling places and voting machines in its two population centers, and has increased opportunitiesfor early voting throughout the state, increasing voter accessibility.

Statewide the number of voting machines has increased from 4,913 in the 2004 election to 6,888 for the 2008 election. The increase in machines has reduced the number of voters per machine statewide from 218 voters per machine in 2004to 174 voters per machine in 2008.

The Brennan Center of Justice, in a state-by-state survey of their own, found that Nevada does need improvement in their preparedness as it relates to contingency plans in the event of an emergency. There is no state mandate requiring counties in Nevada to use emergency paper ballots in the case of machine failure.

The report gave Nevada generally good marks in other areas such as ballot reconciliation and post-election audits. For full details of the Brennan Center of Justice report, click here.

Monday, October 20, 2008

CNN's John King is reporting that the McCain-Palin campaign is throwing in the towel on three key battleground states: Colorado, New Mexico and Iowa. In order to reach an electoral vote majority of 270, the Republican ticket is now going all-out for victories in Florida, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Nevada and a very long shot come-back in Pennsylvania.

Only by winning all six of these states does McCain have a chance at garnering the necessary electoral votes to secure the Presidency on November 4th. Talk about a 'Hail Mary' pass!

They successfully predicted the outcome of the 2000 and 2004 elections. 7-11 began its 7-Election campaign in 2000 when their candidate cup sales showed very similar results to final vote totals between Gore and Bush. In 2004, Bush cups outsold Kerry's by 2%.

One cup sold equals one vote. Results are published weekly in the USA Today and can also be found here. Currently, Obama leads McCain 60-40 nationally. We hope they're right again. Drink up!

The Asheville Citizen-Times is reporting that a bear cub was found dead with two Obama signs draped over it. The bear was found on the campus of Western Carolina University.

An official with the WCU Police Department could not immediately comment on the investigation or say whether or not the identity of the person responsible was known. The same official however did offer this formal response.

"Western Carolina University deplores the inappropriate behavior that has led to this troubling incident. We cannot speculate on the motives of the people involved or who those people might be."

The statement further acknowledged that campus police are cooperating with other law enforcement authorities.

In a press release issued just minutes ago, the US Senate campaign of Bruce Lunsford announced that former President Bill Clinton will be stumping for the Bluegrass Democrat this Friday, October 24th. Lunsford is in a tight race to unseat incumbent Republican Senator Mitch McConnell who is also the Senate Minority Leader.

Current plans are for the former President to make campaign appearances with Lunsford at two western Kentucky rallies, one in Paducah and another in Bowling Green. Additional details about the Clinton-Lunsford campaign events are expected later today.

Last month, Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY) also campaigned for Lunsford, holding rallies in Lexington and Pikeville.

Obama needs 18 electoral votes beyond the 2004 Kerry states to get to 270. He's built a firewall in VA (13) and IA (7) where McCain has fallen way behind. Obama is also currently leading by strong margins in Colorado (9).

Sunday, October 19, 2008

It was only a matter of time before the fringe right begin their assault on Colin Powell. Mark Halperin notes Limbaugh's response as reported by Politico. Representing the voice of today's Republican party...

"Secretary Powell says his endorsement is not about race. OK, fine. I am now researching his past endorsements to see if I can find all the inexperienced, very liberal, white candidates he has endorsed. I'll let you know what I come up with."

"I was also unaware of his dislike for John Roberts, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Anthony Kennedy and Antonin Scalia. I guess he also regrets Reagan and Bush making him a four-star and secretary of state and appointing his son to head the FCC. Yes, let's hear it for transformational figures."