Final Oscar Picks 2015

On Thursday, Chris Pine, Alfonso Cuarón and J.J. Abrams will announce the nominations for the 87th Academy Awards. In a perceived weak year, all categories are up for grabs (except Lead Actor and Lead Actress) so these guesses are just that. As with last year, I’ll detail the major races, and leave the craft categories strictly to my believed set of nominees.

Dark Horse: Gone Girl
Long Shot: Whiplash
Total Shock: Guardians of the Galaxy

The skinny: When there can be anywhere from five to 10 nominees, it’s a big guessing game. We’ve had nine nominees the last three years, so it’s a total crapshoot here. I’d be just as likely to believe you if you took away American Sniper, Foxcatcher and Selma or if you added Gone Girl. But a Whiplash nomination, while worthy, seems impossible. Critics love it, and J.K. Simmons is a shoo-in for Best Supporting Actor. But just not enough people have seen it. People would have to really, deeply love it for it to get any sort of traction. It would be the lowest-grossing Best Picture nominee since Amour, and Damien Chazelle is not Michael Haneke. So why not give it to the year’s biggest blast? Because we don’t care for superheroes at this Academy, thank you very much.

The skinny: It could have been such an interesting year. Instead, we’re left with the usual suspects. Duvernay’s nomination depends entirely on how many people saw Selma before the deadline. While nothing is a sure thing, people who saw it are going to be immediately affected by it. Lately, it hasn’t gotten much support anywhere, so it will be an underdog the whole way. Bennett Miller has delivered both his best and best-directed film in Foxcatcher, but I don’t think it has much support aside from its acting.

The skinny: Tough as always, but I don’t see how these five aren’t the final nominees, no matter what SAG had to say. I won’t say Keaton is a lock to win, but even if they’re playing famous tortured geniuses, Cumberbatch and Redmayne have long careers ahead of them.

The skinny: If Robert Duvall gets nominated for the critically reviled The Judge while missing out for the much better (and better appreciated) Get Low, it will go down as one of the weirder things to happen at the Oscars since the field expanded. I think Inherent Vice simply happened to late (and it was really weird to boot), so its chances have diminished significantly. But what does it really matter, because J.K. Simmons has this thing in the bag.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Emma Stone, Birdman
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods

The skinny: Year after year, this is the toughest category to guess and pick. These five should do it, but you never know. Watts picked up a SAG nomination, but she’s the fourth-most deserving cast member in St. Vincent to receive an award. Russo could make it if there’s a big Nightcrawler push (doubtful, despite its critical acclaim; Open Road just isn’t a big enough player to make such an impact). Tilda Swinton should really be the one to sneak in. It would be a nice all-encompassing award for one of the year’s best films.

Dark Horse: Inherent Vice
Long Shot: Guardians of the Galaxy
Total Shock: Unbroken

The skinny: So the Academy, in their infinite wisdom, has determined Whiplash is an adapted screenplay for reasons that may technically be correct but ultimately make no sense. Such is their prerogative. It almost has a better shot there, given the dearth of competition. But that means Inherent Vice‘s best shot at a nomination is probably gone. Still, I’d love it if the Academy followed the lead of the WGA and nominated Guardians of the Galaxy.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAYBirdmanBoyhoodFoxcatcherThe Grand Budapest HotelSelma

Dark Horse: Nightcrawler
Long Shot: Mr. Turner
Total Shock: Top Five

The skinny: It all comes down to the Best Picture nominees. Given the recent trend of ignoring everything but the frontrunners, if one of those five isn’t also a Best Picture nominee, good luck getting in here. That’s a shame because it’s the perfect place for the dark comedy of Nightcrawler (or please please please the pure laughs of Top Five) or even for the Academy to throw Mike Leigh a bone (as they did for Another Year).

Dark Horse: Song of the Sea
Long Shot: The Tale of the Princess Kaguya
Total Shock: Cheatin’

The skinny: The Book of Life might have enough to make it in, even though its mixed reviews hurt it somewhat. Song of the Sea, from the director of surprise nominee The Secret of Kells has a somewhat better shot than the Studio Ghibli production The Tale of the Princess Kaguya. Too bad the Academy won’t pay tribute to another master: Bill Plympton, whose hand-drawn Cheatin’ is a treat.