Measuring European Foreign Policy Impact. The EU and the Georgia Crisis of 2008. College of Europe EU Diplomacy Paper 9/2010

Abstract

This paper assesses the political influence of the European Union (EU) on the Russo-Georgian conflict in August 2008 by systematically categorising all cases of European foreign policy (EFP) action in this context according to their impact. Based on a modified version of Roy Ginsberg’s framework for measuring political impact, the paper explicitly uses an 'outside-in' perspective, i.e. it focuses on how third countries perceive and experience European foreign policy actions. To what extent and how did the EU have a political impact on the conflicting parties during the 2008 war in Georgia? The research finds that in fifty percent of all cases European foreign policy had a considerable or significant impact on both Georgia and Russia, whereas in the other half, the impact was only marginal or even nil. Most importantly, the EU exerted this impact without the use of any kind of coercive means or the threat thereof – let alone military measures. European foreign policy often successfully relied on diplomatic means, persuasion through negotiations, declarations and financial incentives. The results challenge traditional thinking, according to which more foreign policy capabilities – military in particular – are a necessary precondition in order for the EU to become a credible player in world politics.