Math stinks: Rockets waive Harris and what might be next

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Within a few weeks after Mike Harris signed his largely non-guaranteed contract, there did not seem to be much of a chance that he could make the team. The Rockets brought 19 players into camp and had 20 under contract. They could keep only 15.

He had little chance to beat the math, and we’re not just talking about having more players than roster spots.

Harris gave it a good shot. He was incredibly dedicated and hard working all summer. He looks like a guy that can be an asset at either forward spot.

He seems like a good bet to follow the career path of a Chuck Hayes, who was a similarly tough cut that the Rockets brought back, or Kelenna Azubuike, whom they cut but was picked up by and caught on with the Warriors before the Rockets could find a roster spot for him.

For now, Harris was caught in a numbers crunch. But it was not just the roster numbers that sent him to waivers. He is due to make the minimum for an undrafted player, $427,000. But by NBA rules, his contract would count as $770,000 on the salary cap. That means, keeping Harris and cutting someone with a guaranteed contract would leave the Rockets $770,000 further from finding their way back under the tax threshold line.

If cutting him eventually gets them under the luxury tax line, it could save millions. If they would have been over either way, cutting him would save $1,197,000.

The next cuts will be tough, but for different reasons. The Rockets did not want to lose Harris, but were pretty stuck with that move. After the safe assumption cuts of Bob Sura and John Lucas III, the remaining cuts will likely be entirely about basketball.

Carl Landry’s contract is also only partially guaranteed, but I hear more good things about him all the time. I’ve been told he stood out in those simulated games. He looks more athletic than I expected and I think he surprised the Rockets, too. He is not Amare Stoudemire, or even Brandon Bass. But he seems to get off the floor more easily than expected, possibly from being another year removed from his knee surgery. I couldn’t imagine the Rockets letting him go so quickly, anyway.

If he makes it, that leaves the two remaining cuts likely from Justin Reed, Jackie Butler, Steve Novak and maybe Kirk Snyder. All have fully guaranteed contracts so their choices won’t make a bit of immediate financial difference.

It should be mentioned here that the Rockets would rather find a trade to take someone and his contract off his hands. The last decisions could be close enough to let be determined by another team’s interest in one of those guys, if Daryl Morey can find a taker.

Assuming he can’t, Reed would seem more likely to be released. He could offer a quick-jumping, aggressive four, which could be useful now that Harris is gone and with Luis Scola and Chuck Hayes potentially foul-prone. And don’t read anything into his lack of playing time lately. He is just coming back from a sprained ankle and missed most of last week. But he is on the roster because he came in the Mike James trade. I think the term ‘longshot’ fits.

Snyder offers a talent for finishing inside, something that could be valuable in Rick Adelman’s offense as he gets more comfortable. Right now, I can’t see how he gets on the court, but with so many 30-somethings around, I wouldn’t rule it out sometime this season.

Novak has not shown much improvement on developing a more well-rounded game. But his shot is unique among Rockets power forwards.

Butler is so young, at 22 the Rockets youngest player, it might be wise to be patient, especially since he is behind the NBA’s oldest player. But it doesn’t look like he will play unless there are injuries. And like Reed, he is only on the roster because he came with the player they wanted in a deal, Scola.

That might bring the choice to between Novak’s one great skill and Butler’s potential for contributing in several ways, and his more immediate value as insurance. It would seem tough to give up on Novak this quickly, but the Rockets might be ready to think he will never be a regular in the rotation. Butler might become that eventually, but for now, might never get off the bench.

It might depend on what you prefer, one sure thing now or the prospect of more varied abilities later. For me, I’ll take the shooter and think if there is a need for an emergency center, you can find one. Either way, we’re talking about the 15th guy.

The Rockets would rather another team help make the choices easier for them. For that matter, if they could, they would love to find the room to bring Harris back.

• • •

This seems like a good time to clarify the deadlines.

I had been told Oct. 26, but that’s not technically correct. Teams have until Monday, Oct. 29 to set their rosters. They have until Friday, Oct. 26 to place players on waivers in time for them to clear Oct. 29.

Most teams will treat Oct. 26 as the deadline. Many coaches, including Rick Adelman, refer to it that way. The Rockets, however, will likely wait until Monday morning since everyone likely to be cut has a guaranteed contract and won’t be picked up on waivers, anyway.