Polls show Le Pen's party, now named the National Rally, winning about 22-24 percent the election, a slight edge over the centrist alliance that includes Macron's party. she proposes unpicking the bloc from the inside, rolling back its treaties and common rules and turning it into a "union of nation states" who act independently. Gonna be some changes!https://www.ecfr.eu/specials/scorecard/the_2019_European_election

Polls show the overall election outcome is likely to yield the most fragmented Parliament in modern EU history, creating genuine suspense about the precise shape of a majority coalition and potentially giving small pro-EU parties, like the Greens, more influence than ever.

The poll numbers, unveiled on Monday, deliver an alarming — if not entirely shocking — wake-up call to the mainstream, pro-EU politicians who have controlled power in Brussels for decades, but have seemed flummoxed in recent years about how to push back against a rising populist and nationalist tide.

"LePen" Dave, if you're still there - I hope you can see the value of dragging this particular 'democrat supporter" out of his closet Nothing like having confirmation from the horse's mouth as to where his sympathies really areA BLAST FROM THE PAST Jim

”A confusing statement from someone who had earlier said: A small nuclear device on Old Haddock-Face’s house would be a good start. I suppose a period of little over half-an-hour is too long to remember ones own comments.”

When I wrote those two posts, I expected Iains to come on and play the clever-shit, but it was even beneath his doubtful dignity to stoop that low. He’s gone up a point or two in my estimation.

But good old Nitpicking-Nigs didnt let me down. You don’t understand the concept of wry humour do you, Nigs? Thought not. Stick to nitpicking - it’s all you have.

"Sunday that figure will change significantly if the polls are to be believed." Yeah - should be able to pick up six or seven hundred seats with no problem Good luck with that one - I don't think so !!! LePen Just what Europe needs - a parliament full of Jew-haters Nice to see you've kicked down yet another door to your closet Jim Carroll

As of now the Brexit party holds 14MEP seats. Sunday that figure will change significantly if the polls are to be believed. Along with Le Pens's party and others there will be a useful block of seats to stall the march of further integration within the EU. No amount of chittering will alter this inescapable reality, neither will ridiculous labels such as the brexit clan dreamed up by those that endlessly demonstrate that they are totally incapable of reasoned responses.

A sea change is coming- anyone for a ride on the skylark? The blue is a rather fetching colour!

"22 seats" The Brexit Klan (one hesitates to describe an unelected group of nutters a party) have obviously gone into Europe to wreck the EU - at present the EU boasts 751 elected members Wonder what their chances are of bringing the EU down !!! A standard sized fly swatter ought to do the trick

"Treasonous Mayhem:" Somewhat "Anglophobic" eh what!! What is it about Britain that inspires such self hatred from its supporters Jim Carroll

Unlike 'first past the post' this shows that in most regions, a 37% vote is likely to receive much more than 37% recognition in terms of seats (66% in regions with only 3 seats, 60% in regions with 5 seats)

That's a good point, Nigel, though I am not sure about the first past the post part, since that allocates 100% of the seat to the highest percentage vote, even if that is 50% + one vote, which is the less representative possible before actually giving the seat to a minority of the voters.

But the general point is well made and often overlooked. The voting percentage is - for practical purposes - a continuous variable, whereas the number of seats, whether one or ten, is a discrete quantity. It follows that except by a fluke, under any voting scheme whatever, there will be a degree of mismatch between the percentage of votes and the percentage of seats. All the complicated proportional systems are aimed at reducing the mismatch, but that is difficult and is always a compromise in some fashion.

The YouGov polls consistently rate the Brexit Party higher than other polls, often by around 5%. That matters, and where the 5% ends up also matters. I think we will wait for the results before we get too carried away …

Last time I understand Farage and UKIP got 22 seats. At the time, Brexit was really of interest only to nerds. COnsequently, I would be surprised if the Brexit Party did not get considerably more, but it would, for me, have to be 28 or above to be particularly noteworthy.

The decent ones amongst us regard physical assaults on politicians as being totally unacceptable, no matter what the politician’s position may be. Attack them verbally by all means, but physically? Absolutely not!

A confusing statement from someone who had earlier said:A small nuclear device on Old Haddock-Face’s house would be a good start. I suppose a period of little over half-an-hour is too long to remember ones own comments.

The decent ones amongst us regard physical assaults on politicians as being totally unacceptable, no matter what the politician’s position may be. Attack them verbally by all means, but physically? Absolutely not!

I haven’t heard any Remainer calling Brexshiteers ‘traitors’, and calling for them to be ‘arrested, marched out, and shot’. However, there’s plenty of evidence on the internet of Brexshiteers saying precisely that about remainers - it's been directed at me a number of times by BrexShit Gammons on SM.

"Is it not lefty reminiacs being charged with common assault and calling for acid attacks on fine upstanding Brexit politicians?" As usual you choose to ignore the violence that has already taken place as a result of using race and ethnic hatred to push through a policy that is steadily destroying the UK

@Nigel. The implications are interesting. I wonder how much of the LibDem vote materializes as shown, or is it simply still displaying as a protest vote against the two major parliamentary parties. I suspect some of that intent could spring to the brexit party. Sunday night could yet spring surprises either way. Hatching eggs is subject to the fickle finger of fate, as are polls. (especially when several days will elapse in the UK between polling and the release of the results) Who will be watching the watchers?

I see Brown's false allegations concerning brexit funding have been seen to be unfounded. He must be congratulated for generating extra votes for TBP. The MSM are keeping that particular gem well hidden, while the EU are now getting in on the act with squeals of pesky Ruskie collusion. That should generate a raft more votes for Brexit.

I wonder what the establishment has for a last minute attempt to destroy the Brexit party?

How typical of the Self-Servatives that, on the one hand, they can’t or won’t find 75 million to support what remains of our steel industry and the town that depends on it, yet they had no problem whatsoever, when they failed to win sufficient seats to form a government in the 2017 GE, stumping up over one BILLION with which to bribe the religious-nutcase terrorist-supporters of the DUP in order to hang on to power by their fingernails.

Interesting figures:BREX: 37% (+3) LDEM: 19% (+2) LAB: 13% (-2) GRN: 12% (+1) CON: 7% (-2) CHUK: 4% (-) UKIP: 3% (-) If those were repeated on the day, under the voting system used in Great Britain: the first seat in any region would go to Brexit. the second seat to Lib Dem, the third to Brexit the fourth to Labour the fifth to Brexit the sixth to Green the seventh to Lib Dem the eighth to Brexit the ninth to Brexit the tenth to Conservative (and it is only the South East which has 10 seats available. In any other British region the Conservatives would get no seats. The above calculations are based on the percentages in the polls being repeated evenly across the country. It is possible that SNP & Plaid Cymru would also gain seats in Scotland/Wales. Unlike 'first past the post' this shows that in most regions, a 37% vote is likely to receive much more than 37% recognition in terms of seats (66% in regions with only 3 seats, 60% in regions with 5 seats)

May's bold plan seems rejected on all sides and there is talk of not putting it before the House at all. Since I don't see a general election being entered into willingly, that really does put us in the no-deal or revoke territory.

DmcG The real reason is the refusal of the Commons to deliver the Brexit both parties promised in their last election manifesto. Any economic uncertainties resulting from their intransigence is clearly their fault. Trying to deflect blame onto the Blameless Brexiteers, who only seek a democratic outcome, simply will not fly. (Just see what happens Sunday night)

But the anticipated character assassination of Farage is delivering untold thousands of extra votes into the Brexit camp. Democracy shall prevail!

That is one view of the reasons for British Steel's problems. Here is another lifted from the Guardian:

How much is Brexit to blame? It is not the only factor in the crisis but it is very important. Steel contracts are typically agreed well in advance of the product being delivered. As things stand, the UK is due to leave the EU on 31 October and the terms of that separation are yet to be agreed, meaning British Steel's overseas customers don't know what tariffs will apply to steel they buy from the company. Sources close to the company say orders from customers in the EU and further afield have dried up as a result.

That is why the company needs an urgent cash injection, to replace the drop in sales in the hope that a favourable Brexit deal can be signed in the meantime. Another factor is the weakness of sterling since the referendum result, which makes the cost of imported raw material used in making steel higher. Greybull bought British Steel after the referendum but it did not expect Brexit uncertainty to last this long.

So which seems the bigger issue to me, tariffs and sales or carbon trading issues? I think you can guess.

Britain now stands to lose one of its major industries due to "Brexit related problems"

So on the day British steel is about to go bankrupt because of an EU policy (emissions trading) and a vindictive EU move (suspending British company's rights to take free allowances), May is going to argue that we should still be regulated by the EU.

Of course, the BBC reports it as "Brexit related issues" rather than "having been affected by an EU decision to suspend UK companies from accessing carbon credits to cover their emissions under the ETS, until a Brexit deal is ratified by the UK's Parliament"

It helps to paint the entire picture otherwise the unwary might totally misunderstand the reality!

Never eaten in a Jamies - not my kind of food - but I'm willing to listen to what he has been saying (as a businessman) for several years now He was against leaving Europe but advocated that doing so might improve the nations dietary habits so it seems he was pragmatic rather than a straightforward stayer Now the crunch has come, he links his crash to Brexit

Apropo of nothing, there's a lovely story around here of a couple of local electricians employed in a posh restaurant/hotel somewhere in the Midlands of Ireland around Christmastime. The hotelier decided to treat them to a special Christmas meal - he lined up the staff - best bib and tucker and led the lads to their table where a waiter brought them the wine - handing a tasters sample to our neighbour Paddy to try first - Paddy obliged, tasted it and nodded his assent Then they brought out the meal nouvelle cuisine - a coule of potatoes, a few vegetables, a couple of thin slices of meat and sprigs of garnish, all beautifully laid out on the plate Paddy looked at it, scooped it down in one go and nodded - "yes; bring me some of that". Jim

I am not convinced, though, that the spokesman is entirely right. Certainly, their problems got worse after the Brexit vote. It does not follow that it got worse because of the Brexit vote. In fact, I think the pressure on wages and austerity is more of a factor, with the only Brexit-related exception being what happens to staff from the EU. (But that applies to most chains, not just Jamie's. And of course a lot of other chains *are* struggling as well.)

I have only eaten once at a "Jamie's Italian" - I am not particularly avoiding them, that's just how things turned out. To me, it seemed fairly average Italian fast food at an above average price. Certainly not something I would try to "wow!" my Italian daughter-in-law with.

I think those who favour remain need to careful not to blame every problem on Brexit. None of the articles I have read about Jamie Oliver's business failing says it is related to Brexit. It could be: there could be staffing problems, for example. But if so no one is reporting it as amongst the specific causes. So unless evidence appears to the contrary, it sounds like too many chain restaurants chasing too few customers. That's business, not Brexit.

"A majority of voters did note vote for a no deal" A tiny majority of a 72% turnout voted to leave without having the right to specify any alternatives The demands being made at present are those of an extremist, unelected, self-appointed right-wing pressure group.

Britain now stands to lose one of its major industries due to "Brexit related problems" British Steel is awaiting the decision of whether it is to receive a massive bailout in order to survive Jamie Oliver's Restaurant chain is also facing closure due to Brexit related business problems - all very conducive to Britain "standing on her own two feet" Jim Carroll

BTW, your graffiti analogy is very apt. If you deface or piss on the graffiti, it makes it all the more difficult for the owners of the wall to clean it up. Try making the owner's (moderation team's) life easier by not adding to it.

"Not pandering to an inflated ego" Tearing down and exposing is not pandering Dave Ignoring is appeasing in my book Apasrt from anything else, the contradictions of his arguments are worth pointing out - a miniscule non-party with no democratic credentials - the dismissal of minorities because 'they are too small to be considered important' while at the same time clutching on to a far smaller majority as "The will of the people" - attacking elected leaders as "anglophobic" while at the same time denigrating elected politicians who he doesn't agree with By that argument, accusing a Prime minister as "a traitor" is as "Anglophobic" as it comes

If he actually put up an argument, we would have nothing to complain about - would that Nigel and Stanron did occasionally, but neither of them 'soapbox' as this feler does Well worth a few minutes worth of exposé in my book Jim

Hammond is making an interesting point today: he is saying that the leaflets etc before the referendum all talked about getting a good deal when we leave the EU. Consequently leaving with no deal is betraying the referendum vote.

Offhand, I cannot remember any information issued before the referendum promoting no deal, but perhaps others have better memory than me. Can someone link to some official documentation from before the referendum vote favouring no deal?