posted at 5:21 pm on October 10, 2013 by Allahpundit

Granted, it’s just an aide, but it’s an aide’s job to know what his boss and the other bosses in the Senate are thinking.

One of the lingering questions in Boehner’s offer earlier this afternoon would be whether he’d attach conditions, like spending cuts, to the debt-ceiling hike he’s proposed or whether it would be clean. Answer: Clean, in all likelihood. Heritage Action, the conservative PAC that’s been backing Cruz, Lee, and other tea partiers in the “defund ObamaCare” effort, said this afternoon that they won’t hold a vote for a clean debt-ceiling hike against any Republicans. You already know why if you read this post; it’s because they want to stay focused on O-Care, and right now the debt-ceiling fight is more of a hindrance to that than a help.

Until about 18 hours ago, it had been Republican orthodoxy on Capitol Hill to oppose any raising of the debt limit that did not also include provisions for spending restraint or some other form of fiscal discipline. The whole point of the 2011 debt limit negotiations — the talks that led to sequestration spending cuts — was to strengthen the precedent for requiring spending controls as part of any debt limit agreement…

“This is an idea that nobody would have associated with Republicans yesterday,” says a Senate GOP aide. “There isn’t a Republican in Congress who supported the idea of a clean debt limit increase without strings attached before yesterday.” Perhaps that’s an exaggeration — maybe there were a very few who would have supported such an idea — but the aide’s observations are generally accurate. They’re certainly true of some of the most influential Republicans in the Senate.

The aide pointed to the relatively small group of House lawmakers and outside groups who are most committed to targeting Obamacare, even at the price of a partial government shutdown. “It’s pretty obvious they are so invested in the shutdown strategy that they are willing to have an overnight conversion to the view that clean debt limit increases are somehow good policy,” the aide says. “That is heresy for a conservative, and yet they are swallowing it because they are so invested in this shutdown strategy working.”

The strategic somersaults through all of this can be confusing but the basic idea is simple. Two years ago, thanks to recession-era deficits and Paul Ryan’s prominence, reducing the debt was priority number one. Two years later, thanks to the rollout of the health-care exchanges and the emergence of Ted Cruz, stopping ObamaCare is priority number one. Lord knows those two priorities aren’t mutually exclusive, as Paul Ryan noted yesterday after he was attacked for pivoting back to entitlement reform instead of staying focused on O-Care, but tactically tea partiers are willing to cede ground on the former if it means strengthening their hand on the latter. Question, though: Does this strengthen their hand? One of the reasons Ryan gave yesterday when asked why he’d revert to deficit reduction now is because, quite simply, that’s where the action is. As unlikely as a grand (or less than grand) bargain is, it’s still likelier than Obama giving up crucial pieces of ObamaCare. If you want to accomplish something policy-wise from all this, you’re better off trying on tax reform or chained CPI — even though the latter would place the shutdown on a far less popular foot politically than fighting ObamaCare would.

Reid said this afternoon that, regardless of Boehner’s concession on the debt ceiling, there’ll be no negotiations on anything until the shutdown is over. A spokesman for Boehner, meanwhile, says there’s no chance he’ll pass a clean CR that’ll end the shutdown. So on we go. Like I said in the last post, I’m not sure why the “defund” caucus thinks a short-term debt-ceiling hike will force Boehner to negotiate the shutdown and debt ceiling separately, with shutdown discussions reserved exclusively for O-Care. It might create a little extra pressure, but if he decides it’s time to cave on the shutdown, he’ll almost certainly negotiate a longer debt-ceiling hike as part of it. After all, why cave twice when you can cave once? The only thing that could get him to really double down on O-Care, I think, is if the Healthcare.gov rollout somehow turns even more catastrophic than it’s been, with the political humiliation and risk of disaffection among the uninsured so great that Obama decides he has no choice but to delay the law for awhile. Hard to imagine how bad things would have to get to make him do that, but that’s the deus ex machina here if you’re looking for one.

Update: Carney says Obama will indeed sign a debt-ceiling hike even if the shutdown is still on. Your move, Dingy Harry.

Blowback

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“This is an idea that nobody would have associated with Republicans yesterday,” says a Senate GOP aide. “There isn’t a Republican in Congress who supported the idea of a clean debt limit increase without strings attached before yesterday.”

So, what did Husse!n say to Boehner yesterday?
Will he say the same today to all the ‘pubs meeting with him right now? Should I expect some announcement tomorrow morning that Congress has been suspended/disbanded?

A new Fox News poll shows that a majority of American voters–58 percent–would vote “no” on raising the debt ceiling. Only 37 percent of American voters would vote to raise the debt ceiling.

An even bigger majority–62 percent–would only vote to raise the debt ceiling after “major cuts in government spending.”

Only one in four Americans–27 percent–says that it would be “reckless” even to debate not raising the debt ceiling.

The poll, conducted by a bipartisan team of polling firms surveying 952 registered voters on land lines and cell phones, was conducted on Oct. 1 and Oct. 2. The margin of error is 3 percent.

And, if a Fox poll is ‘propaganda,’ let’s try the Associated Press:

Only 30% say they support raising the limit.

During the 8 years of the irresponsible Bush administration, there were $5.365 trillion in debt ceiling increases. So far under the Obama administration, there have been $5.929 trillion in debt ceiling increases.

President becomes deadbeat… refuses to sign bill passed by Senate Democrats to fund Death Benefits for widows and orphans of U.S. Armed Forces… insists that Fisher House Foundation… a charity… continue to pick up the tab in his place.

thatsafactjack on October 10, 2013 at 5:33 PM

Actually, it is even worse. The Constitution does not permit the President to borrow money on the credit of the United States without congressional authorisation, which requires his signature.

Isn’t it that what he just did with Fisher House?

The Obama administration has agreed to reimburse Fisher House, which is, essentially, loaning the Federal government money.

Don’t get me wrong. I think this is an outrage and there should never have been any hesitation to pay the families of the fallen, but the process is wrong and, arguably, unconstitutional.

Both houses of Congress have voted unanimously for POMA and to pay the death benefits.

Daily Mail: 51000 complete O-Care applications in First Week; Nowhere near the pace to reach the 7 million necessary to keep O-care afloat…

Here’s a nice example of liberal math. They said the system they had in place was designed to handle 50,000/day. If it were running perfectly it would take two years to get the 35 million they claimed needed health insurance processed. So we are being told it handled 51,000/week. We’ll be there in 13 years. Reality is such a harsh on their mellow isn’t it?

And let’s get to the point. They want the entire nation to pass through this website eventually with the current estimate of about two years before private health insurance will be gone for the masses.

If it worked 10 times faster than it does now it will take about two years to process the national exchange for everybody.

The GOP is going to give Obama a medium to long term debt ceiling increase (the one things he’s actually afraid of) AND take the polling hit from the shutdown without achieving any significant policy goals, while furthering the intra-party conflict and showing that they’ll cave if the administration plays ball hard enough?

I’m failing to see how pushing the debt limit out 60 days to remove it from the table while keeping the government closed is a GOP betrayal? Seems like a shrewd move to me.

I honestly don’t know what the result of not raising the debt limit next week would be, but if the result was 2008-style market crash, it would only serve to distract from keeping Obama’s feet to the fire and perhaps work in Obama’s favor. The optics of the shutdown and the ACA debacle are now proving to be terrible for Obama. Why take the chance now that Obama and the Democrats are on the run because of the shutdown.

If there are too many moving pieces things could spiral out of control and who knows where we might end up. Keep it simple. Keep the government shutdown and defund/delay ACA. The debt limit can wait 60 days.

The 29,999,999 people who are dumb enough to apply, see the premiums are too high, and refuse the coverage, will get IRS bills for thousands of dollars, based on the information they themselves submitted in the application.

The American public cannot trust the GOP to say “no”. Although you can certainly trust the GOP to believe O’Bama will never give in. If they ascribed just half the faith they have in their opponent’s resolve to themselves they would win this thing.

While you and I agree that this president is in violation of the law of the land, and has been repeatedly in violation during his tenure in office, the fact is that no one in congress is going to even attempt to hold him accountable and neither is the press.

This is why I keep commenting that our problem lies in the political class and the way the political class is designed to function, rather than one party or the other.

Of course the GOP wishes to find means to negotiate with Obama, rather than challenge his lawlessness. They are, one and all, members of the political class and Obama is class president.

Our problem is systemic. Corruption and cronyism are only symptoms of a flawed system. Term limits, two terms of four years each to be specific, would go a long way toward ending the collusion between members of the political class to serve their own interests rather than observing and preserving the law of the land, our constitution.

Men and women who aren’t trying to protect hopes of a very comfortable and lucrative lifelong career, who aren’t trying to protect membership in particular elitist political circles and social circles, who aren’t trying to keep their kids in the ‘right’ private schools in Washington DC until graduation… would be more inclined to challenge a president in violation of the constitution…and remember their oath of office and duty to their constituents.

The only thing that could get him to really double down on O-Care, I think, is if the Healthcare.gov rollout somehow turns even more catastrophic than it’s been, with the political humiliation and risk of disaffection among the uninsured so great that Obama decides he has no choice but to delay the law for awhile. Hard to imagine how bad things would have to get to make him do that, but that’s the deus ex machina here if you’re looking for one.

Here’s the thing though–and this is why I think there may have been a pivot–O’Care has been such a disaster that it has taken on a life of its own. Boehner et al no longer need to champion its defunding. It is presenting a far better case for defunding/delay on its own. Let Obama get buried by reality, rather than be able to demagogue the because of “Republican obstructionism.” Take the defunding football out of his hands. And being able to make it look like a grand concession is even better.

If the ObamaCare roll-out is truly as apocalyptically pathetic as it appears to be, then all it needs is sunlight. The more exposure it gets, the worse it looks. And by proxy, Obama as well.

By being “magnanimous”, the Rs get to play hardball by demonstrating a real case of compromise. But they’re not really giving anything up.

So … the pivot. And they’ll have much firmer ground to stand on when they stand firm on entitlements. With http://www.healthcarewithunicorns.gov as Exhibit A for why the whole system needs to be reformed.

Now, I may be accusing the Rs of playing 3D Chess, when in fact they’re still learning how to play Checkers. That is unfortunately more likely than I’d care to think. But there are some smart individuals who may actually be driving the conversation. Ryan being one of them. No, he’s not perfect. But the fact that he’s back on the scene gives me some hope.

We’ll see. I’ve been incredibly depressed over the last few days, given all the crap that has come out. But maybe there really is an end-game that doesn’t include armed conflict.

I’m failing to see how pushing the debt limit out 60 days to remove it from the table while keeping the government closed is a GOP betrayal? Seems like a shrewd move to me.

mpthompson on October 10, 2013 at 5:58 PM

It is possible it’s not yet another betrayal, but there have been so many betrayals that the logical presumption, based on the history of betrayal, has to be that it’s yet another betrayal, unless and until proven otherwise.

Britain’s Sunday Times said on Sunday it had reached an agreement with Lance Armstrong to settle a lawsuit after the newspaper was forced to pay damages over a report suggesting he had used banned substances.

Carney says Obama will indeed sign a debt-ceiling hike even if the shutdown is still on.

Why wouldn’t he? He gets what he wants, republicans give up the only leverage they have, and he gets to wait for republicans to cave on the shutdown too because they now have absolutely nothing to bargain with.

I honestly don’t know what the result of not raising the debt limit next week would be, but if the result was 2008-style market crash, it would only serve to distract from keeping Obama’s feet to the fire and perhaps work in Obama’s favor.

You mean the same way the market crash in 2008 worked out in President Bush’s favor and reminded people of how destructive democrat policies are?

Obama rejects?

E L Frederick (Sniper One)

Of course he did…for now. He now knows the republicans are dying to surrender, so now he’s simply waiting for them to give him even more. He’ll agree to a temporary debt increase, don’t worry. The only question is what else he’ll get from the republicans in the process. And two months from now he gets to do it all over again and get even more stuff from republicans, lol, because he knows they will never ever call his bluff.

Republicans should refuse any further negotiations at all with anybody in this administration until it answers for the National Park Service scandal. This is objective, lawless thuggery and must be accounted for and redressed. It is an ongoing crime and a clear violation of the civic compact between government and citizen.

Of course he did…for now. He now knows the republicans are dying to surrender, so now he’s simply waiting for them to give him even more. He’ll agree to a temporary debt increase, don’t worry. The only question is what else he’ll get from the republicans in the process. And two months from now he gets to do it all over again and get even more stuff from republicans, lol, because he knows they will never ever call his bluff.

xblade on October 10, 2013 at 8:24 PM

Sounds a lot like what people say about North Korea’s threats to drop their bomb on someone.