How might LaToya Cantrell’s recent New Orleans credit card flap translate into Desiree Charbonnet get more of the middle-class black and the conservative white voter support that went to other candidates, particularly, Judge Michael Bagneris and Troy Henry in the New Orleans Mayor’s race primary?

On Friday, Christopher Tidmore and I discussed the New Orleans Mayor’s race in some details in a Facebook-Twitter Live video discussion. Tidmore has been the political editor for the Louisiana Weekly, a prominent African American newspaper in New Orleans. He also is a radio talk show host on Sunday morning on WRNO.

Tidmore had provided interesting and detailed analysis to Bayoubuzz via the same medium prior to the general election earlier this month and I requested an update to discuss the results and recent developments.

Obviously, the most controversial development has been the credit card controversy now plaguing LaToya Centrell, who, as of election night, led Charbonnet by nine points. According to news reports, Cantrell had charged expenses to her city credit card and belatedly reimbursed that account.

In the first part of the Tidmore interview, he explained how Bagneris and Henry split up a large swath of the conservative and white vote, how Henry hurt Bagneris’s mayoral chances and some of the political machinations of New Orleans.

Below is the text to part one of our Friday live video discussion

The text transcript is accurate but obviously, the most accurate version is the video original, also below.

Right now, which is I think really kind of crazy and exciting, so wonderfully crazy wonderfully crazy.

It's going really well and I've got to tell you it's not going very well for Latoya Cantrell but part of this should have been expected because what's happening right now is Desiree Charbonnet pretty much realizes Cantrell's forty-percent, thirty-nine point something percent this-- should have been hard-floor. So she and her campaign surrogates are desperate to do two things: One, make sure that the Republican vote that went to Charbonnet in the primary continues to go to her and any Republican vote that went particularly to Michael Bagneris or white vote goes to her.

And, secondly that the vote that Troy Henry earned in the primary goes to Charbonnet over Cantrell--and these are not light things. I wrote about this in the Louisiana weekly this past week--you can get it Louisianaweekly.net or for those watching on my Facebook page right below this--where I talked about that Michael Bagneris had lost this race--the reason he didn't make the runoff could be attributed to two men-- Jay Batt and Troy Henry-- The chairman of the, of the Orleans Parish Republican Party and his fellow candidate and friend Troy Henry. And the reason was that both of those constituencies were key players. The Republican constituency and the upper-middle class professional African-American constituency that Henry appeals to. They were key players for Michael Bagneris four years ago when he got a third of the vote. And that essentially, the one-two punch first that the Orleans Parish Republican Party decided not only to endorse Desiree Charbonnet and I explained the methodology as to why in the article it's very detailed, but basically, boils down to they didn't think that Bagneris could get into the runoff.

That their not only endorsement but their active pushing of Charbonnet did not deny Bagnaris all the Republican vote or even most of it, but a sizable enough percentage--that Charbonnet actually overperformed with GOP voters. Then I thought and many people thought she would win in the primary. But the second part of that is--Troy Henry and this is something Michael Bagneris himself told me--that he had wooed and begged Troy Henry not to run because they went out for the same vote. They quite literally cannibalized that same vote the professional middle-class African-American vote.

And, what’s going on right now is--after the election, it seemed like a pretty easy momentum would go of those two constituencies to Latoya Cantrell. That the people who had the Republicans and Caucasians which is most of Michael Bagneris vote--27% of non-black voters in the city of New Orleans voted for Michael Bagneris. It looked like that vote was going straight to Latoya Cantrell and it looked like Troy Henry's vote would. And then a few things happen the first thing was the Ministerial Alliance a group of 100 African American ministers endorses Desiree Charbonnet--very good thing for Charbonnet, very critical--black ministers still hold a good amount of sway in the areas. The second thing though that was going on--was the, was that Charbonnet needed some way to--if not relieve the stigma that she has-- her brother Bunny and Ike Spears and others--old line of African American pols--some would say "crooked pols"--I'm not saying that--I'm just saying that's the perception out there--that she had to, that she had to make sure Cantrell didn't seem like the newcomer, the open person. And this entire credit card controversy, well, not the worst scandal I have ever seen by any stretch of the imagination, it's even questionable as to how much of a scandal it really is, it was enough to take the gleam off of Cantrell--or at least make her hit, be hit back on her heels for a little while.

The New Orleans Mayor’s race is a week and a half away and pollster Ron Faucheux, who performed a poll for WWL TV and The Advocate, contends that it is anybody’s race among the top three candidates—Michael Bagneris, LaToya Cantrell and Desiree Charbonnet. Moreso, with high undecided vote and a tight race, Faucheux believes it all comes down to the last ten days and that the voters are still shopping.

This was the over-arching message in my interview via Facebook Live on Tuesday afternoon.

Below is the substance of the interview of the first six minutes and twelve seconds of the discussion. The transcript below is an accurate accounting however, make sure you watch the video for the most accurate version.

Part 2, Thursday

After the preliminaries intros, I asked Faucheux to give an overview of the Mayor’s race:

FAUCHEUX: Charbonnet is getting 26%, Cantrell is getting 27%, Bagneris is getting 19%-- any any two of the three could still make the runoff, the last ten days of this election I think very important, a lot of others still don't know much about three candidates, and I think they're still learning about them, so the two candidates that close the strongest I think if the best chance to the runoff births and as it stands now it looks like runoff would be certain.

In terms of how they break down, none of the candidates for mayor is dominating the race. They're all fairly close, none of the candidates for mayor is dominating any voter group-- among women voters, Charbonnet leads, but Cantrell is in second place. Among men voters, Cantrell leads. Among white voters, Bagneris leads. Among African-American voters Cantrell leads. So you can see nobody is dominating any one category. and when you actually look at the numbers, the numbers are actually fairly close, for instance, in terms of white voters Bagneris is 24 Cantrell has 23, Charbonnet has 22. In terms of women voters Charbonnet is 28, Cantrell is 23, Bagneris has 19, so nobody is wiping anybody else out of any of the categories. And there are a number of other candidates in the race as well, Frank Scurlock has four--rather 2%, Troy Henry 4%, Tommy Vessel 2% and everybody else was less than one-percent.

SABLUDOWSKY: So the undecided total including, say Troy Henry and Scurlock it makes up about what percent if I might ask?

FAUCHEUX: I mean the underside is about 18%--if you if you count the more minor candidates into that, you have 28 percent of the voters, who are not voting for any of the three major categories.

SABLUDOWSKY: So I'm just kind of curious--basically Bagneris is about what six seven points behind the leaders

FAUCHEUX: Right

SABLUDOWSKY: So, I'm wondering and I know that you mentioned this in terms of numbers but--why is it that he is that far behind

FAUCHEUX: Well based on most of the polling, he's he actually seems to have the momentum in the last couple of months, there were some polls that showed me at six, eight, ten, eleven percent a month or two ago--he's now at 19 percent. So it seems that he is come up and it doesn't necessarily show that the other candidates come up--so even though Bagneris is in third place, it does look like he handling well over the last couple of months whereas the other candidates are roughly where they started from--particularly Cantrell. At first Charbonnet wasn't that well known she came up some time ago, but but we but at this stage of the game, I think I think there's enough undecided votes and enough uncertainty that any two of the three candidates will still make the runoff.

But it's all going to depend on the last ten days. We're dealing with three candidates here who are not necessarily household names in the city, they may have not run big loud controversial campaigns, they haven't been attacking one another, they're not tied into controversial issues, so so because of that a lot of voters i think are still shopping

With only two weeks left until the primary election, the momentum in the New Orleans Mayor’s race is clearly with former Judge Michael Bagneris.

A new survey by respected pollster Verne Kennedy, taken for a group of local business leaders, shows Bagneris in the lead for the first time in the race. In his first poll, conducted in July, Bagneris was a solid third. In the second Kennedy poll, which surveyed New Orleans voters several weeks later, there was a three way tie between Bagneris and his two major opponents, former Judge Desiree Charbonnet and Councilwoman LaToya Cantrell. However, in the last poll, which was concluded September 20th, Bagneris led with 33% support, followed by Charbonnet at 30% support and Cantrell at 23% support.

There are several reasons for this development. Bagneris was the first candidate on the television airwaves. He also received the support of business leader Frank Stewart who paid for advertisements on his behalf. In the meantime, Charbonnet has been the target of repeated political attacks from an outside political organization, www.NotforSaleNola.com, which has sent mailers to registered voters throughout the parish.

It also helps Bagneris that the major white candidate, businessman Frank Scurlock, has been embroiled in controversy. Not only was Scurlock arrested next to a Confederate monument site in New Orleans, but it was also just revealed that he was arrested in Santa Monica, CA earlier in the year for lewd behavior. While Scurlock claims he will fight the charges and stay in the race, his campaign is over, for all practical purposes.

While Scurlock was never going to win the race, he still could have attracted thousands of votes which may now move to Bagneris, who is trying to build a coalition of African American and white voters who are concerned about crime and corruption at City Hall. In recent months, Bagneris has been the most forceful candidate in attacking the Landrieu administration for its bungling of the Sewerage and Water Board crisis among other issues.

For voters looking to fight corruption and cronyism, it will be easier to support a candidate who is not connected to the current city government. Cantrell has been a member of the City Council and supported much of what the Landrieu administration was advocating. She cannot claim to be an outsider like Bagneris or Charbonnet; however, political insiders are reporting that Mayor Mitch Landrieu is already helping Charbonnet behind the scenes. She is also going to be endorsed by Congressman Cedric Richmond (D-New Orleans) and has the strong support of District Attorney Leon Cannizzaro. In a surprising development, Judge Charbonnet also picked up the endorsement of the Orleans Republican Parish Executive Committee.

While these endorsements help, it is not a positive development to have powerful enemies. After missing the Voice Pac debate on Wednesday night, Charbonnet was not only ridiculed by her opponents, but she also earned the ire of businessman Sidney Torres, who may spend $200,000 in attack ads against her. Charbonnet claims that she exited the debate because some panelists backed out for “ethical concerns.” It remains to be seen whether voters will view the decision as a courageous stand or a decision by a candidate trying to avoid tough questions.

In a city that is beset with violent crime, flooding and street problems and a host of other maladies, it seems that the candidate offering the most change, not a continuation of the current administration, will have the strongest chance to win. Cantrell is a current member of the council and Charbonnet has the support of many of the top politicians in New Orleans, so both candidates might have trouble attracting the support of voters demanding change. If Bagneris can convince voters that he is the true change agent with good ideas on turning around a troubled city, he has a very good chance to become the next Mayor of New Orleans.

This weekend, two different findings from two respectable pollsters with two totally different results hit the New Orleans Mayor’s election streets.

(Photo: LaToya Cantrell)

According to one poll, on behalf of one of the leading candidates in the race, Desiree Charbonnet has a five point lead over New Orleans City Councilwoman LaToya Cantrell with Michael Bagneris ten points behind. That poll was commissioned by the Charbonnet campaign and conducted by Greg Rigamer.

The other poll, this one “independent” but commissioned by business persons and The Advocate owner John Georges presents a totally different picture. This one, performed by Verne Kennedy (MRI) of Market Research Insights, has Cantrell with a slight one-point lead over Michael Bagneris, 27 to 26 percent with Charbonnet closely trailing at 25 percent.

The MRI polling data over the summer has shown a trend upward for Bagneris.

In the Aug.7-8 survey, the undecided vote led with 26% followed by Judge Desiree Charbonnet with 25 percent, Councilwoman LaToya Cantrell at 23 percent and former Judge Michael Bagneris with 19 percent. Troy Henry, who has run for New Orleans Mayor twice before had risen to 7 percent.

In a July MRI poll, Charbonnet and Cantrell led with 33 and 32 percent, respectively.

Somewhat surprisingly, the recent MRI poll, shows that Henry, despite recent TV advertising, has dropped to 4 percent. Also, the undecided vote which led in the August MRI poll has has now dropped to 18 percent.

One of the observations made by MRI’s Kennedy might be foretelling how the race could ultimately conclude. Kennedy said that it appears that Charbonnet and Bagneris’s support appears to be coming from the same pot of voters.

Thus, if either Charbonnet or Bagneris were to end up in a runoff with Cantrell, one might assume the combination of their two tallies could be sufficient to help one of those two candidates (Bagneris or Charbonnet) obtain a majority.

Of course, assumptions like this could be dangerous to make. In the recent gubernatorial race, former Senator David Vitter was expected to win as he was the leading Republican defeating two other members of his own party in the general election. However, due to attacks made by Vitter against his two Republican opponents, Jay Dardenne crossed over to support the ultimate winner Democrat John Bel Edwards and the other major Republican candidate, Scott Angelle, failed to endorse his party entry, Vitter.

While all four of the leading candidates in the Mayor's race are Democrats, the Louisiana Governor's race is a text-book case as to what might happen when general election political attacks by one candidate ends up hurting in the runoff.

Which candidate, Cantrell, Bagneris, Charbonnet, Henry has best chance to prevail in New Orleans Mayor race? Tell us below

To date, the New Orleans Mayor's race has not generated much mud, however, last week, one Super PAC began to level charges against Charbonnet. It is uncertain whether that Super PAC is alligned with any one of the candidates.

In today’s political world and in this case, the New Orleans Mayor’s race, money tells us much about who might be in the runoff, post-election day. Desiree Charbonnet, has a major advantage right now in terms of cash-on-hand compared to all other candidates. She leads with a 3 to 1 advantage over her next top-tier opponent, LaToya Cantrell, New Orleans City Councilwoman.

However those numbers don’t tell us the entire story. Far from.

In today’s day of online politics, shady websites, and Super PACS, what one doesn’t know is until perhaps too late—whose money is behind whom.

For instance, as Bayoubuzz discussed yesterday, a hit-website called notforsalenola.com went up slamming Charbonnet. Who’s behind the website and mailers? Apparently, a Super PAC, which identity we now know NotforsaleNOLA.com PAC I.E. Only PAC.

According to NOLA, the SuperPAC is “a firm based in Shreveport, and Amanda Maloy, a Baton Rouge-based lobbyist. Maloy said she serves as firm treasurer, only handles financials for the group and is not authorized to comment on who is behind the group.

One of the faces on the tube lately who is making a good media run is third-time Mayoral candidate Troy Henry. As the Advocate reports, his investment in the election is minimal. A meager $25,000 plus, “chump-change” foray—maybe enough to win a sheriff’s race in Mayberry USA, but not for the New Orleans’s Mayor’s election. His TV appearances apparently are well funded. As the Advocate points out, “Louisiana Common Sense Fund, which paid for television ads for him that have been running in recent weeks. It’s unclear who is behind the committee, which will not have to disclose its donors or spending until about 10 days before the primary.”

Hidden money and nefarious anonymous mailers and flyers are not new to politics, particularly New Orleans elections. So far, the anti-Charbonnet website is getting eyeballs and media traction, but, so far, it is relatively mild in being inflammatory. The Charbonnet campaign disputes the claims being made and raises the point why it should not be considered credible.

"This group formed perfectly timed as not to have to disclose who they are or where they are getting money until very late in the campaign, it's designed to be a secret, where if they really stood behind the charges they should come out and own it the way a campaign has, too," said Kevin Stuart, campaign spokesperson for Charbonnet.

By comparison, perhaps one of the most destructive of all campaign stunts was those that occurred during the Marc Morial-Donald Mintz 1994 election, which pitted a black man vs. a Jewish man and which racial and religious slurs were made, dividing two communities that were traditional allies.

The difference between then and now is the Internet and Super PACS. Back then, flyers cost money to circulate, the more the circulation, the more the money needed to produce. Online? What does it cost to put up a website and promote?

Other New Orleans Mayor’s Race news and Tweets

The confederate statues are still an issue. According to NOLA.com, the contribution that Frank Stewart and his wife made to Michael Bagneris has been returned. Stewart has been a prominent figure in the confederate statue discussion as he has taken out full page ads. He advocates a public referendum.

"I would look to develop a program to incentivize homeowners who are capturing stormwater to lower their bills." #voteLaToya #LaToyaforNOLA

Charbonnet has a new commercial which focuses upon innovation. She is seen speaking in front of an audience in a dark auditorium, the members of the audience nodding with approval. In the ad, she claims that, “if Uber and Lyft can get us a car in a few minutes, I want police to do the same”.