All Membership Contents 2019

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Fed Sends Pre-Emptively Dovish signalsOn Wednesday March 20, markets had been prepared for uneventful Fed policy decision. First No Rata change was as expected. However the Fed “dot Plots” removed their previous forecast for two rate hikes by the end of the year to no rate changes. One hike is still priced in for 2020. As expected, the Fed revised down its economic forecasts for the next few years. They also announced that it would slow the pace of the liquidation of balance sheet holdings stating in May and indicated that it would conclude the r

Focus On Where Central Bank Policies are headed In Medium Term In my opinion, the Powell Fed was too fast to send a dovish easing signal to the markets in January as a run of softer U.S. data got investors worried that the economy was in for an economic slowdown. Well, just as soon as the Fed signaled an easier monetary policy, a number of economic statistics indicated that the economy might have stabilized and could now even be strengthening. I applaud the new Fed Chair’s attempt at clarity, but feel he could be more effective if he was a bit more

Its an interesting time in the global financial markets with major central banks just about all with future policies on hold. This is resulting in forex trading just about on hold. The key driver for forex markets tends to be current, and market expectations for future interest rate differentials. A major driver of global interests rates often is the Fed. Chair Powell recently has been a source of money market instability due to imprecision in public comments. Hopefully he has now learned that the markets hang on every single word he utters.

Fed Chair Powell Signals Major Changes In Policy One Thing You can’t say about Jerome Powell is that he is not decisive. As widely expected, the Fed kept interest rates steady at its January 30 meeting. Many were predicting a dovish bias at the meeting and on this he delivered. Personally I was expecting a more neutral posture. Powell sent the message that policy is “data dependent”, but the central bank can now be patient in deciding if it needs to raise rates again. Importantly, the Fed removed from the previous policy statement the li

U.K. Brexit Discussions Remain Center-Stage Monday of this week saw U.K. PM May present her “Plan B” to the House of Commons after “Plan A” was soundly defeated on January 15. This was an historic loss for the May government after Parliament rejected her Brexit deal proposal on a vote of 432-202. PM May lost the vote by a margin of 230 votes. Labour called for a vote of No Confidence on Wednesday January 16 which May survived. I must admit that I was not surprised that after two years of negotiations with the EU, that May appears to

Crunch Time For U.K. PM May And Brexit As expected, the House of Commons soundly rejected the proposed deal with the EU. This was an Historic loss for the government after Parliament rejected her Brexit deal proposal on a vote of 432-202. In short, May lost the vote by a margin of 230 votes. Given her crushing defeat, Labour called for a vote of No Confidence on Wednesday which May survived. She must now come up with a new plan by Monday January 21. After two years of negotiations with the EU, it is hard to imagine what she will be able to come up with next

Fed Chair Powell Signals Change In Policy Bias Fed Chair Powell has made several appearances recently. His comments after the December 20th rate hike had many wondering if he had misspoken when he said the Fed Quantitative Tightening (QT) was on autopilot. QT and rate rises are seen as two forms of simultaneous policy tightening. These words alarmed the markets at a time when many the economy saw the economy was slowing. Since then, Powell has taken every opportunity to announce to the markets that Fed policy is currently data-dependent and clearly not on

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