BMI View: Our view on the Nigerian agribusiness sector is mixed. The cocoa industry assumes a greaterimportance in the country's medium-term economic future now that oil revenues can no longer be reliedupon as an easy source of foreign exchange. We remain cautiously optimistic that cocoa plantations andprocessing facilities will continue to receive the public and private sector support needed to move forward.Poultry, dairy, sugar, rice and wheat consumption are expected to continue to depend very largely onimports to meet demand, although a much greater percentage of demand for each of these commodities(apart from wheat) could potentially be met by local production. Poor infrastructure, lack of access toinputs and basic technology, fragmentation and a lack of access to finance and expertise are among thefactors that lead us to take a pessimistic view of the medium-term prospects for self-sufficiency.

Key BMI Forecasts

- Cocoa production growth to 2019/20: 44.5% to 289,100 tonnes. Global prices will remain sufficientlyelevated to stimulate investment from government and private sector bodies.

- Corn consumption growth to 2020: 17.6% to 8.8mn tonnes. Recovering demand from the livestockindustry will support consumption growth.

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