Friday, December 22, 2017

Confirmation bias affects visual perception at WUWT - on carbon trading in China and the LA Times

Anthony Watts has posted an article by a bloke called Larry Hamlin, which is a stark example of how confirmation bias affects visual perception. Larry is a climate science denying conspiracy theorist who has the occasional "essay" at WUWT.

He wrote about something he read in the LA Times. It was a recent announcement from the Chinese government that it is preparing to set up what will eventually be a nationwide carbon trading program. The article was by Jonathan Kaiman reporting, from Beijing, a news conference of the National Development and Reform Commission in China.

The article set out the timetable, which stated that it would be three years before transactions begin (my emphasis):

China’s carbon market will initially apply only to the power-generation industry but will later expand to cover seven other sectors, including petrochemicals, chemicals, building materials, and iron and steel.

The Chinese government will spend a year building a nationwide registration system covering all companies participating in the market, the state-run China Daily reported. It will spend another year testing the system, and actual transactions will begin in about three years.

One doesn't need to be a psychologist to realise that Larry is suffering from denier blindness and conspiracy ideation, because he wrote:

Completely missing from the L A Times article was the rather critical point that the market isn’t actually starting and no ones [sic] when it will start ....

I'm aware that it is not recommended that one label deniers "nuts" or "stupid". However in my view that caution should be reserved for friends, relatives and real life acquaintances, not the crazed denialati in cyberspace :)

Incidentally, scientists have done research to better understand the visual perception problem brought about by confirmation bias.

From the WUWT comments

I also noticed that so far, not one person expressing their "thoughts" under the WUWT article has picked up on Larry's blindness. Either they didn't read the LA Times article, or this visual perception problem is widespread among the denialati or, as likely, both.

This comment from Alan Tomalty is not atypical of the twisted thinking encouraged at WUWT:

December 21, 2017 at 10:22 pm
Jerry Brown should be arrested for treason by signing a document with a foreign country that has as its stated goal to subvert every democracy in the world.

Sou,Lots of people are a bit geographically challenged. I am sure we should not pick on Larry just because he does not know the difference between China and Guangzhou. It is a bit disappointed that none of his readers noticed this.

If I remember Heartland had a list of people for some project that listed one woman as being from the University of Victoria, Victoria Australia.

On the other hand we may not want to hire Larry as tour guide for the annual HotWhopper bus tour.

New Look

G'day. HotWhopper is having a facelift. Do let me know if you find anything missing or broken.

When you read older articles on a desktop or notebook, you may find the sidebar moves down the page, instead of being on the side. That can happen with some older articles if your browser is not the full width of your computer screen. I am not planning to check every previous post, so if you come across something particularly annoying, send me an email and I'll fix it. Or you can add your thoughts to this feedback article.

You can use the menu up top to get to the blogroll or whatever it is you might be looking for on the sidebar.

When moderation shows as ON, there may be a short or occasionally longer delay before comments appear. When moderation is OFF, comments will appear as soon as they are posted.

All you need to know about WUWT

WUWT insider Willis Eschenbach tells you all you need to know about Anthony Watts and his blog, WattsUpWithThat (WUWT). As part of his scathing commentary, Wondering Willis accuses Anthony Watts of being clueless about the blog articles he posts. To paraphrase:

Even if Anthony had a year to analyze and dissect each piece...(he couldn't tell if it would)... stand the harsh light of public exposure.

Definition of Denier (Oxford): A person who denies something, especially someone who refuses to admit the truth of a concept or proposition that is supported by the majority of scientific or historical evidence.
‘a prominent denier of global warming’
‘a climate change denier’

Alternative definition: A former French coin, equal to one twelfth of a Sou, which was withdrawn in the 19th century. Oxford. (The denier has since resurfaced with reduced value.)