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Friday, December 18, 2015

2018 FIFA World Cup AFC sims (18 December 2015)

Two weeks late, I know :)

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 14 December 2015. And assuming Myanmar - Kuwait will finally be played on 19 March 2016 (currently there's no information from FIFA regarding's this match).

Just a quick reminder for those not familiarized with the AFC format:

Winners + four best runners-up advance to the 3rd round of WCQ and 2019 AFC Asian Cup finals
The
remaining runners-up + all 3rd placed teams + four best 4th placed
teams advance to the 3rd round of Asian Cup qualification.
The
remaining 4th placed teams + all the 5th placed teams will go through 2
rounds of play-off matches to determine the final 8 teams to advance to
the 3rd round of Asian Cup qualification.

Given that Australia will lose 73 points, and Saudi Arabia will gain 97 points, Saudi Arabia will be ahead of Australia in February.So in your pots above you put Australia above Saudi Arabia assuming the latter will lose against UAE?

Well, if you want to have the final 8 qualifiers for the third round of AFC19Q as a result out of two play-off rounds then you need more than 12 teams (4 4th placed + 8 5th placed teams). My educated guess is that the six teams eliminated in the first round of WC18Q will participate in these two AFC19Q play-off rounds. Obvious constellation of the play-offs would then be the first po-round consisting of 2 home-and-away play-offs (in June 2016) and the second po-round consisting of 8 home-and-away play-offs (in September/October 2016).However, the position of Indonesia in this AFC Cup qualifying process remains unclear.

thanks very much for the analysis, it highlights how costly it was for Jordan and Oman to lose to Kryzgstan and Turkmenistan and for China to draw to HK in their last qualifiers, with Syria a major beneficiary

If Saudi Arabia wins against United Arab Emirates on March 29th then they rocket to second spot in the Asian order in April and thus first pot, assuming of course that all other predictions remain the same.

United Arab Emirates - Saudi Arabia of March 29th is an important match for the seeding of the Asian third round. Currently elo predicts a loss for Saudi Arabia. If Saudi Arabia wins they rocket to 631 points and spot 46 in the ranking and to pot 1 in the Asian seeding order, pushing Australia and Japan to a lower pot. United Arab Emirates then drops to 496 points on spot 68, so they'll drop to pot 4.A draw in this match delivers Saudi Arabia 559 points on spot 63 and United Arab Emirates 521 points on spot 68, which effectively means a switch in seeding pots between the two.Assuming of course that all other predictions remain unchanged.

Btw with a loss against Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirates will also lose their best runner-up spot to China PR and miss their qualification to the third round altogether, providing China PR wins their two qualifiers. China would then have 423 points in April (pot 4).

Iraq drawing with Thailand on March 24 sends Thailand through and also puts Iraq in the hot seat now, while keeping the door wide open for China and Oman if they can pinch upset wins over Qatar and Iran on March 29