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Texans-Jaguars number projections

Here are five statistical projections for the Texans-Jaguars game later today:

1. MAURICE JONES-DREW’S CARRIES: 23

Jones-Drew got back in the swing with 19 carries last week following Rashad Jennings’ injury. Jennings is out today (knee), leaving Montell Owens and Jalen Parmele (combined career carries: 22) as the second and third tailbacks. The Jaguars hope the extra game reps last week plus starter snaps in practice make a difference for Jones-Drew.

2. J.J. WATT’S SACKS/BATTED PASSES: 1/2

Under ideal circumstances, the Jaguars’ offensive line would be healthy and Watt would stay in one place, challenging left tackle Eugene Monroe. But things aren’t ideal. Right tackle Cameron Bradfield (ankle) is out and Watt shifts all over the Houston defensive line. Even Mike Mularkey admitted Friday he expects the Texans to “test the waters” with Watt early. That means fill-in right tackle Guy Whimper better be ready to block Watt and, in some cases, cut block him so he can’t get his hands up.

3. ANDRE JOHNSON CATCHES: 7

Johnson, the Texans’ top receiver, has averaged 5.8 catches in his 15 career games against the Jaguars. But beside Johnson, Houston’s receiver group is in flux. Johnson was targeted 10 times last week, the rest of the receivers a combined four times. He had eight catches for 119 yards.

4. JAGUARS TURNOVERS: 2

This will come into play particularly if Houston is able to forge an early lead, forcing the Jaguars to come back through the passing game. That plays right into the Texans’ defensive hand. They had four takeaways against Miami … in the second quarter. The Jaguars had one turnover against the Vikings.

5. JAGUARS THIRD DOWN OFFENSE: 38 PERCENT

The Jaguars went 9-of-18 last week (50 percent). Houston’s defense is better and obviously that performance got the Texans’ attention. They play a 3-4 scheme (Minnesota a 4-3) so look for them to mix up their looks on third down to get off the field.