NFL Draft, Gruden, and Joe Flacco

Despite the contiguous-United-States-sized wet blanked that the NFL and the NFLPA have lain over us I remain excited and as interested as ever in the NFL Draft which commences just one week from today.

When I last addressed this topic, my main man Andy Dalton was projected as a third—possibly second—rounder and Cam Newton was thought to be a mid-to-late first rounder. I thought he had more talent than that and hoped against hope that Seattle would find a way to draft Dalton. However, as we get closer to the Draft it’ll now be an upset if Dalton doesn’t go in the first round and if Newton doesn’t go No. 1 overall to Carolina.

Now that Dalton has apparently taken up first-round residency, should Seattle take him at No. 25? I say yes, knowing full well that doing so will do very little to help the team in 2012—regardless of whether Matt Hasselbeck is re-signed when the lockout is lifted (if Hasselbeck remains, Dalton won’t start. If Hasselbeck signs elsewhere, Charlie Whitehurst would likely start with Dalton possibly set to start later in the year… like I said, it won’t help the team in 2012).

While I remain enamored with guys like Mike Pouncey and Gabe Carimi, but it’s also looking like neither of those guys be there when Seattle picks at No. 25 (initially, it looked like evaluators thought that they would be). Derrick Sherrod is a guy who seems to be gaining some momentum lately and if Seattle thinks he’s worthy, then I don’t see how fans would be upset at a pick like that because we all know that they need help (desperately) along the offensive line. Would you also be interested in Colorado’s LT Nate Solder? How about his teammate, CB Jimmy Smith? That all depends on whether you believe the rumors that Seattle wants to move out of the No. 25 spot (for the record, I don’t believe them).

About that. I’ve been reading and hearing that New England is in the catbird seat because they have two first round picks (17 and 28) and teams who have earlier first round picks may want to trade to get back into the first round if a QB they like (e.g. Jake Locker) and might have considered at their earlier pick (e.g. Minnesota a No. 12 or Jacksonville at 16) falls. Why wouldn’t this be the same scenario for Seattle at No. 25? While I’d love for them to pick Dalton at No. 25, if they have a chance to fleece another team for draft picks that they gave away for the Whitehurst trade (and more), then I could understand them doing it to beef up their offensive line or secondary with whatever they net in the trade and if they have their eyes on a different QB who may last until their second round pick (No. 57 overall – Christian Ponder? Unlikely, I think he’ll be a first rounder too. Ricky Stanzi? He’ll definitely be available, but do you want him that high? But please, I beg you, not Ryan Mallett). Of course, Seattle could remain at No. 25, pick someone not named Dalton, and then trade back into the first round if Dalton is still on the board between Nos. 26-32. It’s possible. But I believe Dalton will be a star, especially in Seattle’s version of the West Coast Offense it will run beginning next season. Because I believe that and because of the importance of the QB position in the NFL, I’d prefer that Seattle take him at No. 25 and not risk losing out on him.

On the topic of QBs, have you been watching ESPN’s Gruden QB Camp episodes? I’ve really enjoyed them. Gruden is clearly a bit crazed (and a bit pot bellied…Jon, I can see that you watch a lot of film so take my advice, when doing so hop on the elliptical machine or something, you’re sitting too much. I only say this because I care. It’s for your health.). It is also apparent that he loves to talk to these players and critique them. I loved the session he had with Ryan Mallett. They went through a lot of film (relatively, in a 22-minute show) and it really seemed like he had a lot of true feedback for him. Without completely crapping on him, he told Mallett that he needs to understand protections a lot better than he does right now. Even if it’s a lineman’s responsibility to protect or make adjustments at the line when a defense shows something, Mallett still needs to say something to make sure that the protection is adequate for the play. I don’t think Mallett clearly got what Gruden was saying at first, but it sunk in as they were talking. No it’s not my responsibility to make the line calls, but yes it’s my responsibility to make sure the play is a success, so… it’s my responsibility to make sure the line calls are “correct.” Great stuff. He really gave it to Mallett on a few different occasions. The same could not be said for the Cam Newton episode. He didn’t show much film of him throwing the ball (as compared to Mallett). Both Andy Dalton and Jake Locker came out looking pretty good. They seemed to be at ease with Gruden. Blaine Gabbert seemed extremely low key and didn’t show much of an engaging personality. He came across like an engineer or the finance major that he is; almost pedantic. But he seemed very intelligent and clearly has enough rah-rah qualities in him so it’s not a real concern, but he just didn’t have the same qualities as Dalton or Locker. As for Mallett’s personality, I read somewhere that a scout compared him to Eminem in terms of being a white urban street kid. I don’t know if that’s what he’s like, but he had that sort of cadence and diction in his voice. Regarding Newton and the paucity of Gruden’s breakdown of his actual film, the play that he drew on the board looked to be about the easiest read a QB would have to make. Read one safety, if he’s looking at him, throw the ball to the tight end. The other three guys had much more complex plays on the board and much more difficult reads. I suppose that’s nothing new. Also, Newton’s session was weird because Gruden asked him to give him a long play call that would be similar to something that Gruden spit out (a really long winded play call) and Newton couldn’t or wouldn’t do it. He just said that Gruden was putting him on the spot. I just thought that was weird. Basically since Auburn didn’t really huddle up and instead looked to the sideline for a number that announced the play call, Newton didn’t have to do it.

My question is this: if the NFL wasn’t going through its labor strife which prohibits teams from trading (players for players, players for draft picks) and signing (free agents) players, would it be possible that they’d be interested in moving Flacco?

I know that he’s only 26, but this would be one of those “selling high” propositions and it could be that Flacco has more perceived value than actual value. He’s clearly a “winner” since he is the only QB in NFL history to start and win a playoff game in each of his first three seasons. That’s a nice statistically oddity, but does it really reflect his value? What percentage of those wins are attributable to him and which percentage are attributable to the defense and Ray Rice? In seven total playoff games (unquestionably an impressive number for a three-year player) he’s thrown for four TDs and seven interceptions. He’s completed only 53% of his passes and has a QB rating of 61.64. And his numbers would be completely awful if he didn’t get to play the generous (five turnovers resulting in a TD and two field goals) Kansas City Chiefs last year.

So, while the wins look good, is Flacco really that good? I’m not sure and I don’t think that Baltimore is either, which is why I think they haven’t signed him to that extension yet (or didn’t before they couldn’t due to the lockout).

This is not to say that I hate Flacco as a QB, but I’m just not sure if he’s the guy who can seal the deal for Baltimore (the team I thought would represent the AFC in the Super Bowl last year against Green Bay). Just consider this: If there was no lockout and Baltimore had the freedom to make some changes, how does a deal like this sound for Baltimore fans:

Don’t you think Arizona would go for that? It’s a lot to give up, but they have a fairly decent team in Phoenix, they just don’t have a QB. Flacco would be an enormous upgrade from what they currently have. And how about Baltimore? They would have two first round picks (their own at No. 26), two second round picks, two third round picks, one fourth round pick, two fifth round picks, two sixth round picks, and one seventh round pick. For a team that drafts as well as Baltimore, this would be a phenomenal deal. I think they’d do it without the extra third rounder (or even the third and not the second) from Arizona.

With their stockpile of picks they could draft their QB (Gabbert at No. 5? Locker/Dalton/Ponder/Mallett at No. 26?) or pass on a QB and re-sign Marc Bulger for another year and sit out the QB derby in 2011 (or take Kaepernick later). The point is they could do some damage and would be giving up a “franchise” QB who may not even be one.

I know that my comments may be blasphemy for Ravens fans, but don’t think of them that way. I actually love your team and several of your players and respect the hell out of your front office. I just don’t think Flacco is “the guy.”

This is just something I was thinking about when I saw Flacco commenting on his contractual status with the team and how pissed teams must be that they can’t make player moves until the CBA gets figured out. Yet another reason why the lockout stinks.