India-Pakistan Feud Threatens Accord in This Post-Cold-War World, the United States May Be the Champion of Nuclear Diplomacy. It Is Adding Muscle to the Non-Proliferation Treaty and Rigorous Export Controls on Sensitive Technology. Regionally, from South America to South Africa, US Negotiators Are Working to Curb the Development and Stem the Flow of Nuclear Weapons. the Monitor Looks at Two Regions Where the US Is Pressing for Progress

Article excerpt

THE Bush administration may have stirred up more controversy
than compromise in its ongoing negotiations with Pakistan and India
over nuclear non-proliferation.

Concerned that escalating tensions between the neighboring South
Asian countries could erupt in a nuclear explosion, the US
Department of State invited its top officials here to explore ways
to avert the possibility. Washington is seeking to diffuse the
threat with a five-power pact among the United States, Russia,
China, India and Pakistan to stop the flow of nuclear weapons on
the sub-continent.

A dangerous one-upmanship has replaced the usual denials from
the two longtime foes about their respective nuclear programs.
Pakistan Foreign Secretary Shaheryar Khan revealed during his
recent visit here that Pakistan has both the know-how and the
materials to construct a nuclear bomb, a fact long-denied by
Islamabad.

That public revelation reportedly drew a combative response from
Indian government and opposition leaders. Foreign Minister
Madhavsinh Solanki quickly asserted that "a bomb is part of our
defense preparedness." The head of India's largest opposition party
proclaimed: "India must waste no time to go nuclear."

"Regional non-proliferation efforts are breaking out all over
the globe," Mr. Khan told the Monitor. "In the Pacific, in Latin
America, on the Korean Peninsula," he says, agreements are
possible. "But India says such a South Asian effort would deflect
from its own world view of nuclear non-proliferation. It's just an
excuse not to enter into an agreement."

Khan says India also dismisses an accord based on its
historically poor relations with China, the major nuclear power in
the region. "But they've mended their fences with China," insists
Khan, who dismisses the Indian rejection as posturing.

Since Oct. 1, 1990, American aid to Pakistan has been severed
under the Pressler amendment, which forbids assistance if it is
found that Pakistan possesses necessary materials for a nuclear
weapon. Pakistani officials say that the drop-off in aid has
debilitated Pakistan's conventional deterrent to India, leaving
Islamabad no other choice but to build up a nonconventional
deterrent.

"It's a bit ironical that this country-specific {Pressler} law
is geared toward Pakistan, when we are the one country ready to
sign the non-proliferation treaty," protests Khan.

US Central Intelligence Agency Director Robert Gates voiced the
Bush administration's concern over South Asian nuclear
proliferation during his testimony before Congress on Jan. …