Saturday, June 25, 2016

2016 Scotiabank Ottawa Marathon Analysis

This race has been around since 1975. I looked at the course a while back and it's fairly flat and fast. the issue is the that in late May, you might get unlucky and get a hot day like this year. Seems like last year many of the feeder races had great weather (except NYCM). This year, it's more likely that the weather is unfavorable (Boston, Bayshore, Ottawa, Grandmas).

Last year, looking at the totals, Ottawa had a better year than in 2014 and 2016. This year looks like 2014. I wonder if it was warm? Boston was warm in 2014 as well.

AG Group

2015 Qualifiers

2015 AG Total

Percentage

2016 Qualifiers

2016 AG Total

Percentage

F18-34

73

470

15.53%

72

454

15.86%

F35-39

39

281

13.88%

37

267

13.86%

F40-44

39

289

13.49%

47

279

16.85%

F45-49

56

217

25.81%

37

197

18.78%

F50-54

39

164

23.78%

29

170

17.06%

F55-59

19

67

28.36%

12

58

20.69%

F60-64

1

21

4.76%

2

14

14.29%

F65-69

1

8

12.50%

1

5

20.00%

F70-74

0

2

0.00%

0

1

0.00%

F75-79

0

0

0.00%

0

0

0.00%

F80+

0

0

0.00%

0

0

0.00%

M18-34

90

670

13.43%

76

615

12.36%

M35-39

59

450

13.11%

54

447

12.08%

M40-44

96

561

17.11%

67

495

13.54%

M45-49

94

467

20.13%

71

431

16.47%

M50-54

81

388

20.88%

60

364

16.48%

M55-59

59

233

25.32%

33

202

16.34%

M60-64

31

112

27.68%

16

88

18.18%

M65-69

18

40

45.00%

10

38

26.32%

M70-74

7

14

50.00%

5

19

26.32%

M75-79

0

4

0.00%

0

3

0.00%

M80+

0

0

0.00%

1

1

100.00%

Totals

802

4458

17.99%

630

4148

15.19%

Nearly 18% of runners qualified for Boston in 2015. In 2016 the number of qualifiers is down 21%.

Margin

2015

Percentage

2016

Percentage

<1 minute

56

6.98%

43

6.83%

1-2 minutes

44

5.49%

36

5.71%

2-3 minutes

38

4.74%

42

6.67%

3-4 minutes

40

4.99%

43

6.83%

4-5 minutes

41

5.11%

27

4.29%

5-10 minutes

163

20.32%

127

20.16%

10-20 minutes

216

26.93%

166

26.35%

20> minutes

204

25.44%

146

23.17%

Totals

802

630

Squeaker Pack is bigger in 2016, 30.32% vs last year's 27.31%.

We know what this is going to do for the cutoff so let's cut to the chase.

AG Group

2016 Qualifiers

20156 AG Total

Percentage

2017 Qualifiers

2017 AG Total

Percentage

F18-34

4855

39333

12.34%

4151

37910

10.95%

F35-39

2229

15759

14.14%

2035

15724

12.94%

F40-44

2235

15096

14.81%

1933

14601

13.24%

F45-49

2279

10956

20.80%

2016

11280

17.87%

F50-54

1409

7182

19.62%

1345

7586

17.73%

F55-59

740

3614

20.48%

644

3618

17.80%

F60-64

325

1486

21.87%

333

1582

21.05%

F65-69

94

464

20.26%

108

510

21.18%

F70-74

21

133

15.79%

19

153

12.42%

F75-79

3

26

11.54%

1

21

4.76%

F80+

1

4

25.00%

4

10

40.00%

M18-34

4345

35219

12.34%

3537

33338

10.61%

M35-39

2212

18723

11.81%

1861

18069

10.30%

M40-44

2529

20470

12.35%

2125

19266

11.03%

M45-49

3063

17288

17.72%

2572

17252

14.91%

M50-54

2358

13632

17.30%

1982

13607

14.57%

M55-59

1557

8278

18.81%

1375

8581

16.02%

M60-64

931

4379

21.26%

896

4505

19.89%

M65-69

417

1824

22.86%

394

1925

20.47%

M70-74

129

615

20.98%

102

611

16.69%

M75-79

25

163

15.34%

30

178

16.85%

M80+

5

36

13.89%

10

41

24.39%

Totals

31762

214680

14.80%

27473

210368

13.06%

13.5% fewer qualifiers.

Margin

2016

Percentage

2017

Percentage

<1 minute

1752

5.52%

1553

5.65%

1-2 minutes

1730

5.45%

1556

5.66%

2-3 minutes

1740

5.48%

1470

5.35%

3-4 minutes

1588

5.00%

1376

5.01%

4-5 minutes

1504

4.74%

1264

4.60%

5-10 minutes

6686

21.05%

5869

21.36%

10-20 minutes

8964

28.22%

7674

27.93%

20> minutes

7798

24.55%

6711

24.43%

Totals

31762

27473

Squeaker Pack getting bigger in BQ 2017 year with 26.28% over 26.18%. Even the distributions are looking very similar, with slightly more folks under 2 minutes of margin.

The number of runners achieving 2:28 or better in the 2016 qualification year was 27433. Which if you look at the total qualifiers, that's only a difference of 40 runners. The 27433rd runner sorting on margin descending has a margin of (this is funny)

1 second or 0:01

The conditions at Grandma's sound like they were worse than Bayshore and Ottawa. I'm fully expecting that we're back to 0 cutoff and then some once I compile that data.

2 comments:

Thank you so much for doing this!!! After missing the 2:28 cutoff by 17 seconds last year, this data is so intriguing! I beat my qualifying time by 4:19 seconds 2 months ago at the OC Marathon so naturally praying that is enough this year!