Six Races You Can’t Afford Not to Bet Saturday

by Dustin Fabian

September 9, 2017

I know what you’re thinking – Saratoga and Del Mar just ended, and if there was ever time for a horseplayer to catch a brief respite, it’s this weekend. After all, Gulfstream is closed due to Hurricane Irma, Belmont is off to a relatively ‘soft’ start, California is racing at Los Alamitos and Monmouth is also in the final legs of its impressive meet. Plus, your friends and family haven’t seen you on a Saturday afternoon or evening in weeks, so I understand the allure of getting back out there.

But before you make that decision, hear me out. There is a lot of good racing Saturday. Need me to prove it? No problem. Kentucky Downs, regarded as North America’s top track by the Horseplayers Association of North America (HANA) is in action with four stakes races (three graded), and there’s also stakes action at Belmont, Louisiana Downs (seven stakes), Finger Lakes (two stakes), Woodbine, Laurel, Hastings and more. In total, more than 25 stakes races will compete for your wagering dollars this Saturday. That’s a pretty big number for an ‘off’ weekend, don’t you think?

Here are the six I’m most excited to bet, along with my picks for each:

Juvenile New York-breds are on display at Finger Lakes in the Aspirant Stakes (Race 7) and one race earlier in the Lady Fingers Stakes (Race 6). Both races are included in the Late Pick 4, Late Pick 3 and Pick 5. Handicapping the race, my focus is on #8 LOOKING READY, who ships into Finger Lakes for regarded conditioner Bruce Levine. Frankly, I think he’s a single in all of the exotic bets. He was bet heavily in his debut (he finished 3rd behind next out stakes winner, Aveenu Malcainu) and broke his maiden by 2-lengths on August 17 at the Spa. He fired a bullet workout on September 2, drilling 4f in :47 3/5, and he appears to be ready to roll under the top jock at the Finger Lakes, John Davila Jr. He would be highway robbery anywhere near his 4/1 morning line price.

It’s interesting that Mark Casse is connected to three of the runners in Saturday’s Ontario Debutante. He trains #1 SLY ROXY, a Saratoga maiden winner who finished 5th in the Grade 2 Adirondack, and #2 SHAMROCK ROSE, who makes her first career start here. Plus, he bred #5 HONEY GRAEME, who won her debut at Saratoga in August for Rick Violette. I’m a big concerned by SLY ROXY’s draw. She has the perfect stalking type for a comfy outside draw, but Saturday’s draw may not be as favorable. If nothing else, it’s a knock on her value. For that reason, I’m going with HONEY GRAEME, despite the fact that this is her synthetic debut. She beat a next-out winner in her debut (Quick Quick Quick) and that outside draw may make the difference.

Speed looks to be the name of the game in the Laurel’s $75,000 Challedon Stakes, as #3 RED DRAGON TATTOO, #5 ANYTIME ANYPLACE and #6 AFLEET WILLY all strike me as horses that aren’t going to do any running from far out of it. That could set things up for a horse that wants to stalk from just behind, and the best of those is #7 IT’S THE JOURNEY. The Mike Trombetta-trainee has won three straight at Laurel and has shown the ability to rate from midpack. If the pace really crumbles, #1 ROCKINN ON BYE could be the best bet. He has chased the likes of Divining Rod, Whitmore, Vorticity, Shaft of Light and Phlash Phelps this year, and he finished second in this race last year, beaten just ¾-length.

For me, the day’s best bet is #4 MR. MISUNDERSTOOD, who brings a perfect 4-for-4 turf record to the inaugural turf edition of the Super Derby. A staple at Louisiana Downs since 1980, the Super Derby has been won by the likes of Tiznow, Sunday Silence, Alysheba, Seeking the Gold and Gate Dancer. And while this year’s winner won’t be held with that level of reverence, he will reward his backers with money in their pockets. MR. MISUNDERSTOOD won the local prep for this, the $60,000 Prelude Stakes, by 2 ½-lengths and is my single in the $75,000 Guaranteed Pick 4, which spans Races 8 – 11.

When betting all tracks, it’s pretty important to look for ‘horses for the course’ – entrants who have previously run well at the track. At a quirky track like Kentucky Downs, it’s darn near an essential. Problem is, they run such few days (only five this year) that it’s tough to have consistent success there. After all, you only get one chance a year. In the Kentucky Downs Turf Sprint, we’ve got last year’s runner-up, #10 HOGY, and Group 1 winner, #7 UNDRAFTED, who has finished in the Trifecta twice previously on this unique course. He attracted top Kentucky Downs jock, Florent Geroux, and gets a tepid nod from me. I don’t foresee the pace being quick enough to cater to Undrafted’s late punch.

One of Kentucky Downs’ signature races, the $600K Turf Cup, attracted an overflow field of 14, loaded with stellar entrants like course veteran, #4 OSCAR NOMINATED, recent Grade 3 winner, #1 POSTULATION, Arlington Million fourth-place finisher, #7 ENTERPRISING and turf marathon veteran, #11 TAGHLEEB. For my eye, OSCAR NOMINATED is the horse to beat. He won his only start at Kentucky Downs by 6 ¼-lengths and has been facing much tougher horses in his last three starts – the Grade 1 Turf Classic (3rd), Grade 1 United Nations (7th)and Grade 1 Arlington Million (8th). To his credit, he wasn’t beaten more than 4 ½-lengths in any start. If he gets clean sailing, he should run a big one. That said, this race is wide open and Kentucky Downs is known for its low takeout exotic wagers. Jump in and use as many as you can afford – you may just hit big!

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11.8.2017

If you’ve followed this sport for the last decade, there’s no way the venerable Maryland-bred gelding, Ben’s Cat, eluded your radar. He earned $2.6 million at the races the hard way – by entering the starting gate 63 times. He won 32 of those races and finished second or third another 15 times.
He won the same race (Laurel’s Mister Diz Stakes) a remarkable six times, and greeted race fans on Preakness weekend with five victories in the Jim McKay Turf Sprint Stakes. He won races like the Grade 3 Parx Dash and Grade 3 Turf Monster, and was trained throughout his career by legendary horseman, King Leatherbury.
Ben’s Cat was retired this June at the age of 11, and shockingly passed away just weeks later following colic surgery.
Saturday’s Laurel Park card is dedicated to Ben’s Cat. If you’re in the area, we highly recommend making a trip to the track. Special first post is 12PM ET. The celebration includes a Ben’s Cat poster and bobblehead giveaway, as well as an autograph session with King Leatherbury and the five jockeys who guided Ben’s Cat to victory during his career – Julien Pimentel, Jeremy Rose, Trevor McCarthy, Rosemary Homeister Jr. and Horacio Karamanos.
Additionally, Ben’s Cat’s ashes will be buried near the Laurel paddock at 10:30AM ET.
The card also features six stakes races worth a combined $575,000. That’s where I come in. Here are my thoughts and picks for each of the stakes races.
Race 2 (12:30PM ET) – Geisha Stakes (75k) – 1 Mile
Claudio Gonzalez is the most prolific trainer in Maryland this year. So far he has scored at a 25% strike rate and won the Training Title at both the Laurel and Timonium summer meets. He sends out two runners in this race that were impressive on Maryland Million Day. #7 MISS NOSY looks to be his ‘catch me if you can’ entrant. She figures to go right to the front in a race void of much speed. His better horse, #2 MY MAGICIAN, will look to close from midpack. I’ll actually give a slight edge to MISS NOSY, who has won three straight starts by a combined 10+ lengths since being claimed in August, but neither entrant would be a surprise.
#7 MISS NOSY
#2 MY MAGICIAN
#4 LUCKY IN MALIBU
Race 5 (2:00PM ET) – Smart Halo Stakes (100k) – 6 Furlongs
Sophomore fillies take center stage in the Smart Halo, and I’m betting on #4 JEHOZACAT to take a big step forward. She broke her maiden in fine fashion and Laurel and most recently was run down late in a Keeneland allowance race by a filly named Sultry that went on to win the Spendthrift Juvenile Filly Stakes at Churchill. JEHOZACAT’s breeding is impeccable (by Tapit, out of Precious Kitten) and while her speed figures are a bit light (career best Beyer of 64), she has been racing against quality fillies and has held her own. #8 PACIFIC GALE is a serious filly that gets back to sprinting after a try in the Grade 1 Alcibiades at Keeneland. She didn’t stay that day, but she won the Sorority Stakes going this distance at Monmouth and earned a 73 Beyer. I think they’ll be flying early in this race, so give closes like #5 FRIGID SISTER and #6 CAUGHT DREAM’N an extra look.
#4 JEHOZACAT
#8 PACIFIC GALE
#5 FRIGID SISTER
Race 6 (2:30PM ET) – City of Laurel Stakes (100k) – 7 Furlongs
It’s great to see #2 EL AREEB back to the races, but (spoiler alert) I think his first race back is a great opportunity to bet against him. The winner of the Grade 3 Jerome and Withers, he has been off since March, when a knee injury knocked him off the Triple Crown Trail. And that injury, coupled with the layoff and the quality of this field, seem to make this a good time to try and beat him. I’m just not convinced he’ll fire his best first off the pine. Instead, I’ll focus my bets on #1 TALE OF SILENCE. This colt has knocked heads against the likes of Practical Joke, Takaful, West Coast, Tapwrit, Malagacy and American Anthem this summer, and he’s been sneaky decent in one-turn races at a mile or shorter, including a 2-length defeat in the Grade 3 Dwyer and a 3-length loss in the Grade 1 H. Allen Jerkens. If he runs back to either of those, he’s the winner. #4 NO DOZING is a horse I’ve followed all year, and he’s a perfect 2-for-2 at Laurel, but it’s past due time for him to do something other than tease his backers with decent finishes. He’s finished in the Top 4 in five graded stakes races, but has yet to win one and was in the Exacta just twice.
#1 TALE OF SILENCE
#4 NO DOZING
#6 HONOR THE FLEET
Race 7 (3:00PM ET) Safely Kept Stakes (100K) – 7 Furlongs
Sophomore fillies are on display in the Safely Kept, and I’m locked and loaded on the popular local filly, #11 SHIMMERING ASPEN. I loved her run two back in the Twixt Stakes here, and I’m willing to draw a line right through her race last out in the Grade 3 Charles Town Oaks. She’s not the first horse to struggle at that bullring track, and she won’t be the list. She’s 5-for-6 at Laurel and hasn’t lost here since her debut last August. Chad Brown’s #13 YOUR LOVE is another one to watch, but her outside draw may not suit her running style, and I don’t think she’s talented enough to chase down SHIMMERING ASPEN if that one brings her A-game. I’ll also give a look to the Woodbine invader, #9 JUST BE KIND. Reade Baker is an accomplished trainer and this filly is in top form and could run well on the dirt.
#11 SHIMMERING ASPEN
#9 JUST BE KIND
#13 YOUR LOVE
Race 8 (3:30PM ET) – James F. Lewis III Stakes (100k) – 6 Furlongs
Two-year-old colts square off in the James F. Lewis, a race previously won by the likes of El Areeb, Awesome Speed and Cinco Charlie. Needless to say, this year’s winner won’t be in bad company. My pick to join that list is John Servis’ #5 A DIFFERENT STYLE. He drew a great outside post for his forward style and he should offer significantly more value than the expected favorite, #6 KOWBOY KARMA, who exits a decent 4th place finish in Belmont’s Grade 1 Champagne. That one should relish a return to shorter racing (he was 0-for-2 at a mile), but he’s going to need a pace to run at, which he may not get this time around.
#5 A DIFFERENT STYLE
#6 KOWBOY KARMA
#4 BARRY LEE
Race 9 (4:00PM ET) – Richard W. Small Stakes (100k) – 1 1/8 Miles
The last stakes race on the card is the $100,000 Richard ‘Dickie’ Small Stakes, and I’m putting my money on the veteran, #7 FEAR THE COWBOY. This is a horse that rarely runs a bad race and runs well regardless of location. This year, he’s won at Delta Downs, Mountaineer and Gulfstream, and has finished second at Indiana Grand, Evangeline Downs and Sam Houston. He’s going to get lost in the betting with multiple bigger names entered, so I’ll use that to my advantage. #4 PAGE MCKIENNEY is as game as it gets, and his effort last out in the PA Derby Championship at Parx showed he still has ‘it.’ He’s finished in the Exacta in 35-of-51 career starts, including 6-of-7 this year. #6 SECURITIZ won the Seattle Slew Stakes last out at Elmont, but didn’t necessarily look great doing it, while #5 WATERSHED has often underwhelmed despite a big reputation. He did win the Grade 3 Ben Ali Stakes at Keeneland earlier this year, and he’s 2-for-4 at this distance.
#7 FEAR THE COWBOY
#4 PAGE MCKENNEY
#6 SECURITIZ
As you’re betting Saturday’s card, don’t forget about Laurel’s bettor-friendly wager menu, which includes a 12% takeout Pick 5, 20-cent Jackpot Pick 6, 15% takeout Super High-5 and all of your other favorite wagers.

10.19.2017

Not sure what to bet this weekend? I hear you. With all of the best horses finishing up their preparations for the Breeders’ Cup (shameless plug – you can watch all of the workouts at XBTV.com), we’re left with a little ‘less than the best’ this Saturday and Sunday. And while that may be the case, I highly recommend checking out the ‘state bred’ showcase days in Maryland and New York. Empire Showcase Day in the Big Apple highlights the best NY-breds, while Maryland Million Day at Laurel is all about Maryland-bred or sired horses. My main focus Saturday is there, and I’m especially eager to take a stab at their ultra-lucrative 12% Takeout Early and Late Pick 5.
Date: Saturday, October 21, 2017First Post: 12:15PM ETTotal Purses: $1,020,000Low Takeout Bets: 12% Takeout Early & Late P5, 15% Takeout Super Hi-5Official Website: https://www.marylandmillion.com/Official Track Picks: Laurel Park Picks
Here are five horses we’re betting on Saturday:
Race 4 - #8 Blue Moon Ace (9/5)
Based on current form, Blue Moon Ace is probably the best horse racing at Laurel on Saturday. He just finished second – beaten by only a neck – in the G3 Frank J. DeFrancis Memorial Dash in his last start and won Timonium’s $100K Coalition Stakes two back. In the DeFrancis, he finished ahead of Whitmore, who went on to win the G3 Phoenix at Keeneland. I like his outside draw and think he’s worth singling in multi-race wagers.
Race 5 - #3 Pearl Gem (6/1)
I’m willing to take a bit of a chance on this filly under the assumption that #12 Enchanted Star and #14 Frechette don’t draw in off the Also Eligible list. Pearl Gem turned her debut into a runaway 2 ¾-length score and I’m often enamored with first time starters that win from off the pace at sprint distances. It shows me that their head is in the game and that they can handle some dirt getting kicked in their face. This race is loaded with speed and my pick should be moving well late. Also, while Katie Davis opted to ride #10 Margie’s Money instead of Pearl Gem, I actually view the rider change to Alex Cintron as an upgrade.
Race 8 - #4 Spartianos (5/1)
This is the second time Spartianos will try the Maryland Million Turf, with last year’s run resulting in a solid second behind the regarded MD-bred, Phlash Phelps. This son of Not For Love only knows one way of running – to the front early – and he seems to benefit from a lack of speed horses signed on. If they let him get away early, he’s going to be tough to reel in again late (again). He’s not the best horse in the race, but the chips may fall into place for him.
Race 10 - #2 John Jones (2/1)
Local race fans will be watching #1 Admirals War Chest as he goes for an unprecedented third consecutive win in the Maryland Million Classic. But while he’s the right sentimental story, John Jones is the right horse to bet in the race. He’s won 5-of-7 races since being claimed by Lacey Gaudet, including a perfect 4-for-4 mark on the Laurel dirt. In his only start of 2017, he finished a closing 4th in an open allowance turf sprint at Belmont where he was racing against the likes of Undrafted, Blind Ambition and Take Cover. He should relish a return to Laurel and the dirt, and appears poised to reward his connections with another big win on Saturday.
Race 11 - #2 Sommer Something (8/1)
This is a wide-open race and feels like a great opportunity to take a stab at a price horse. Who better than Sommer Something, who was just claimed by Wayne Potts? Potts’ runners score at 23% in their first start since being claimed, and this filly has won three races in a row at Laurel and is 6-for-10 on a fast dirt track. Never discount horses that love to win races, and this filly is definitely that type. It’s also worth noting that she gets in light. She’ll carry only 111 pounds on Saturday, significant less than the favorite, #7 Miss Nosy, who will tote 119.