What is Artificial Intelligence? Will the funding of AI create the Terminator?

Based on some recent news articles ranging from the NY Times and warnings of super intelligence to Elon Musk and the Terminator, there is definitely a threat that technology can go too far. Certainly, any topic that has the super-tech-optimistic Elon Musk worried about the downside of technology should alert some concern. (Of note, he is clearly much more knowledgeable then me on everything.)

Worth reading Superintelligence by Bostrom. We need to be super careful with AI. Potentially more dangerous than nukes.

Essentially, the AI revolution is based on cheap computing gathering massive amounts of information to teach a machine how to learn.

Obviously, the VC community has noticed and invested $17 billion since 2009, including $2 billion in 2013 alone (in 322 companies). The AI investments represent a 62% growth in the last 4 years. CB Insights produced a list of the top AI firms to watch. The list of firms, which are backed by the who’s who of VCs, mainly focus on machine learning and cloud services. Machine learning points to teaching context.

So what does AI represent? Does it represent the next big thing?

It appears to represent the path to solve discovery. If the Google search algorithm can tell the difference between a search for Main Street, Anytown USA and the “main street, Anytown USA”, then there are signs of the discovery use case being solved. An ambiguous search term provides the correct results in context.

In fact, companies such as Yahoo!, Dropbox, LinkedIn and Pinterest have been among the AI investors. Would those companies benefit if they could produce the discovery algorithm that matched the Google search algorithm?

Within the context of discovery, but more meaningful, then will AI add value to previously labor intensive tasks? Although, I’m not involved in law enforcement, AI could have theoretically helped in the Boston Marathon bombing investigation.

Law enforcement officials are trained diligently into finding minutia, the needle in the haystack. Officials could have worked with technologists to create a crisis response AI program. The advancement of machine learning would be trained to look for non-responsive faces or movement away from the explosion, which took the good ole man power to scour the tapes following the bombing (see the 60 Minutes report following the arrests). Is it possible that the suspects could have been identified earlier? I think so.

Would that have saved the MIT police officer and Watertown lockdown?

Would that have prevented the inaccurate Reddit sleuthing?

Would that have stopped the mistaken capture in Watertown?

What does this present? AI provides a scenario where the technology is overstated in the short-term, but understated in the long-term. Additionally, there are perhaps two states of AI. The consumer focused enhancement of the “Amazon recommendation” that leads to proactive search and the government/military grade technology that leads to Terminator nervousness.

We don’t understand how human intelligence works at a fundamental level.

If we don’t understand how to think, then how can programmers simulate human thought into machines?

But what do researchers and programmers know? They know how humans make decisions. They know how to provide context, which can assist humans.

This leads to opportunity. Technology enters the market at the lowest level or ease of use. In this case, AI technology can adopt to the consumer market and make valuable improvements that assist people. As the underlying technology advances and developers can implement safeguards (under the watchful eye of Mr. Musk), then there is a conceivable future of AI on the landscape.

As AIs develop, we might have to engineer ways to prevent consciousness in them – our most premium AI services will be advertised as consciousness-free.

Will it play out like this or anything close? Absolutely not.

The markets will back the companies that develop solutions for the mass audience. The best discovery advancements will control the market. The companies that focus on military advancements will be worrisome (but how much does the average person worry about military contractors now?).

Ultimately, why is this important?

AI presents an opportunity to redefine a market. AI very well may create a new market with new economic incentives, which has a massive impact on wealth creation. Investors back and support the development of moonshot opportunities (at least in theory).

If consumption is about 70% of US GDP and retail sales were $4.5 trillion with $40 billion in ecommerce (see Emarketer), then investments flow downhill. The low hanging fruit of AI is aimed at the consumer and influencing the purchase process.

Can AI deployed correctly impact the consumer? Yes. If I had an opportunity to invest in a talented team targeting this market, would I invest? Yes.