The 2018/19 harvest is ongoing and available evidence indicates that crop yields were favorable due to above-average rainfall, though the high cost of labor and shortages of fuel and cash are adversely affecting harvesting activities, despite the fact that farmers are likely given priority to purchase fuel. It is expected the negative impact of these macroeconomic factors will be most significant in semi-mechanized areas. FEWS NET and partners are currently participating in the Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission (CFSAM), which will provide production estimates in December/January.

Despite austerity measures set by the government to curb the ongoing macroeconomic crises, the Sudanese Pound (SDG) has further depreciated to 53.5 SDG/USD on the parallel market, though the official exchange rate stands at 47.5 SDG/USD. By the end November, sorghum and millet prices started to decline seasonally in most markets, though prices remained unseasonably stable or atypically increased in other markets. It is expected these mixed trends are the result of the ongoing harvest, which is increasing market supply, and macroeconomic issues including currency devaluation, which are putting upward pressure on prices.

Cereal prices are anticipated to increase earlier than usual in April and remain 50-100 percent higher than last year and 150–200 percent above the five-year average through at least May 2019. Many poor households are expected to face atypically high food prices and have difficulty meeting their basic food needs. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are likely among some IDPs in South Kordofan and Jebel Mara, as well as poor households in northern Kassala, North Darfur, North Kordofan, and Red Sea State.

According to UNHCR, an estimated 764,400 South Sudanese refugees are residing in Sudan as of November, 30,420 of whom arrived in 2018. The number of new arrivals recorded in October was the lowest monthly arrival rate in 2018. Further arrivals are expected throughout the projection period, albeit at lower rates than last year. It is expected most South Sudanese refugees are Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) and humanitarian food assistance is preventing worse outcomes.