IMF Identifies Nine Big Banks Likely to Struggle With Profitability

It is unusual for a body like the IMF to identify banks by name. The report named nine financial institutions in all, Besides Citigroup, Deutsche and Barclays, it also named Société Générale , SCGLY 0.13% Italy’s UniCredit UNCFF -0.54% S.p.A., the U.K.’s Standard Chartered STAN -0.30% PLC and Japan’s Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group , Mizuho Financial Group and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group as likely to deliver subpar profits.

“Institutions that are not profitable might not be able to generate enough capital in the future should adverse shocks hit,” Tobias Adrian, director of the IMF’s monetary and capital markets department, told reporters. “It might become a financial stability risk not to be profitable.”

The IMF said the consensus among private-sector bank-industry analysts was for a return on equity of less than 8% for each of those nine banks in 2019. In previous research, the IMF has said that banks’ cost of equity—that is the return stock investors expect on their holdings—is at least 8%. Banks need to earn above this threshold to remain consistently profitable and otherwise may face difficulty building capital for a rainy day, the IMF said.

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About Go Dah Sing

Godahsing web site founded by Man-Cheong (M.C.) Hui, a professional investor and finance commentator, is meant to link shareholders and investors of Dah Sing Financial (HKEx stock code: 440) and Dah Sing Bank (HKEx stock code: 2356), with the stocks’ vital information considered beneficial to their welfare, including advocates for shareholding restructuring actions.

NOTICE

As matters now stand, we've come up with a win-win shareholding-restructuring proposal in respect of the Dah Sing Group, one that is set to be mutually beneficial to all parties concerned, as follows:1) In order to enhance the group’s future growth prospects and with a view to improving the deep share-price discount now existing to its NAV, we believe that now is the time for Dah Sing Financial (440) to seriously consider distributing 99%, if not all, of the sales proceed resulting from the sale of Dah Sing Life, say, by way of a special cash dividend once and for all;2) Dah Sing Financial and Dah Sing Banking (2356) to determinedly go for, and on a best-effort basis, the immediate target for a shareholding restructuring, like turning it into a simple, but more clear structure, with a view to improving the valuation of the Group as a whole. This can probably be implemented and thereby achieved, say, by way of distributing in specie of the Dah Sing Banking and the Bank of Chongqing (1963);3) Dah Sing Financial to endeavor on an ongoing basis, for whatever it takes, even if it means a longer-term perspective, to procure the sale of Dah Sing Banking , so that not only a fruitful return can be anticipated, but also to call for an upbeat and consistent return on the shareholder’s funds of the bank, given the optimal efficiency so achieved through the aforesaid actions.