Early 2014 Fantasy Football Mock Draft

Early 2014 Fantasy Football Mock Draft

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Few free agents still remain on the market and nearly every non-rookie who matters for fantasy football has found his 2014 home. While we all impatiently await the upcoming NFL draft, now is a great time to step back and surveil the current league landscape. And what better way to take stock of the top players in fantasy than through a post-free agency mock draft!

Note: The following mock draft displays the first seven rounds of a 12-team standard (non-PPR) league. The draft represents my personal player rankings.

Round 1 (Nos. 1-6)

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1. LeSean McCoy, RB1

There’s a strong case to be made for any of the first three players on this list to be the No. 1 overall draft selection. For me, it’s Shady.

McCoy finished top two in fantasy scoring among running backs twice in the past three seasons. At 25 years old, he’s at the peak of his prime on a team tailored to maximize his explosive skill set. Under head coach Chip Kelly’s high-octane, video game-like offense, McCoy epitomized consistency in 2013, totaling at least 80 yards all but one week. The only running back to average 100 rushing yards per game, Shady ran away with the league’s rushing title and had the fourth-best yards per rush attempt (5.1).

Now, with speedster wide receiver DeSean Jackson joining the division rival Washington Redskins, McCoy is by far the most lethal home run threat on the Eagles roster. Darren Sproles, acquired through free agency, should not detract from McCoy’s workload but rather provide more reliable backup services than fumble machine Bryce Brown.

It was not long ago that McCoy totaled 20 touchdowns in a season—his ceiling is sky high.

Eight, eight, six and 19. Those are Charles’ touchdown totals over his four full seasons as a starter. Notice the outlier? His enormous jump in scores earned the 27-year-old burner top fantasy running back honors in 2013.

Like McCoy, his current situation is optimal for fantasy production.

Under head coach Andy Reid’s Charles-centric game planning, he accounted for nearly 40 percent of the Chiefs' total offense. Charles saw the ball constantly through both the ground and air game, leading his team not only in rushing, but also in receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns.

Totaling just over 1,000 carries in his career, Charles should have plenty of mileage left at an elite level. He falls below McCoy due to the Chiefs’ sudden loss of offensive line talent in free agency.

No. 3 for the future Hall of Famer feels low. Peterson is clearly still a one-of-a-kind talent, but he comes with a few too many risks to move above McCoy or Charles.

Breaking 2,000 career rushing attempts in 2013, the potential for nagging injuries is real. Peterson is as tough as they come, but foot and groin issues limited his workload down the stretch last season. He’s shown up on the Vikings’ injury report 24 times in the past two years.

While his ceiling is still just as high as that of any back, however, Peterson’s consistency diminished in 2013, as well. He totaled eight games with single-digit fantasy production, compared to three for Charles and four for McCoy. After a transcendent 2012, his 4.5 yards per carry average, 1,266 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns last year were pedestrian in comparison.

All that being said, he might be a steal at No. 3 overall. Peterson and new offensive coordinator Norv Turner should get along famously since Turner is known for getting the most out of his best skill position weapons.

Welcome to the top tier, Matt Forte! The last of the ultra-elite running backs, Forte had a banner year last season. Continuing the pattern from McCoy and Charles, Forte’s new head coach, Marc Trestman, expanded his role in the offense and catered to his strengths in 2013.

In past years, Forte’s fantasy numbers suffered from a lack of carries near the goal line. Trestman changed this trend, trusting Forte in the red zone and boosting his touchdown total to 12 on the season (up from a career average of seven). He also had the chance to show off his receiving skills, posting the most receptions (74) and receiving yards (594) in his career.

With backup running back Michael Bush leaving in free agency, the team has put its utmost faith in Forte to be its bell cow. The only other running back currently on the Chicago Bears roster, Michael Ford, has zero rushing attempts in his professional career.

Talk about a vote of confidence.

5. Calvin Johnson, WR1

The reign of running backs ends here. Megatron is still in his prime and he’s a head above the pack at wide receiver. He’s averaged over 1,700 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns over the past three seasons and offers the most upside of any non-running back. No other receiver has a single-game or single-season ceiling approaching that of Johnson.

The Detroit Lions are loaded with talented offensive skill players, which should only benefit Johnson’s production. There may be several mouths to feed on the offense, but Johnson will remain the focus and get his usual showering of targets. The addition of a legitimate second receiving threat in wide receiver Golden Tate could keep Johnson from seeing as much triple coverage, and you can’t stop Megatron with just two defenders.

If the Lions can avoid their usual late-season collapse, Johnson could be in line for a career year. New head coach Jim Caldwell and offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi should bring out the best in quarterback Matthew Stafford, translating to more consistent production across the board.

Similar to Megatron, Graham is in a class of his own at his position. While he isn’t quite on the same athletic level as Johnson, there is currently no comparison to his level of play at tight end (Gronkowski is still in the same tier when healthy, but…he’s not healthy).

Graham earns a first-round pick in fantasy drafts because he provides an enormous positional advantage week to week. He totaled 1,200 yards and 16 touchdowns in 2013 and made it look easy. The difference in scoring between Graham and the No. 2 fantasy tight end, Vernon Davis, was greater in 2013 than the difference between Davis and the No. 9 tight end, Antonio Gates. The next-closest tight end to Graham in receiving, Jordan Cameron, totaled 300 fewer yards on the season.

Have I made my point yet?! There’s Graham, and then there’s everyone else. Drafting him after the first half of Round 1 is a bargain.

Round 1 (Nos. 7-12)

Manning is the last player in this trifecta of non-running backs currently in a league of their own with no sign of slowing down.

Racking up 55 touchdowns and nearly 5,500 passing yards, Manning set a new bar for fantasy quarterbacks in 2013. While it’s a safe bet to assume his stats will decline next season, a “downgrade” to 45 touchdowns and 4,800 yards would still rank among the best of the best at the position. If that’s a modest estimate for Manning’s production, he’s easily worth a first-round pick.

Manning’s arm strength clearly improved from 2012 to 2013, and his health does not seem to be a factor for now. According to Scott Pianowski of Yahoo Sports, owners who drafted Manning in 2013 likely won their league or at least made it to their respective Super Bowl. Do you really want to risk passing on him in 2014?

Lynch kicks off the next tier of elite running backs. He’s been as consistent as they come since his breakout season in 2011, averaging 1,350 yards and 11.5 touchdowns per year. Despite Lynch entering ninth NFL season, he’s only 28 years old and appears to be in good health.

However, rather than pour on another 300-plus carries for a third consecutive season, Seattle may opt to save Lynch’s legs a bit and see what they have in promising backup Christine Michael. Head coach Pete Carroll indicated at the offseason combine that Michael could break out in 2013. Seattle is a Super Bowl-or-bust team and may not require Lynch to shoulder as big a workload to maintain the Seahawks’ regular-season dominance.

The man they call Beast Mode will still see plenty of work and still represents one of the safest late first-round picks.

The Packers finally have a legitimate starting running back! It took a few weeks in his rookie season for Lacy to work through his early nicks and bruises and solidify himself as the Packers’ workhorse back. Once he assumed the leading role, he quickly became one of the most consistent backs in fantasy.

His 11 rushing touchdowns in 2013 ranked second among running backs, including at least one score in nine of the final 11 weeks of the season. With a healthy Aaron Rodgers passing attack taking defensive focus off the run game, Lacy should find plenty of holes to plow through in his first full season as the unquestioned lead back.

Eight consecutive seasons with more than 4,300 passing yards. A three-year average of 5,271 and 44 total touchdowns. Has not missed a game due to injury in his 13-year career. Enough said.

Brees is durable, consistent and still in his prime. He’s the safest quarterback in fantasy and the only one in the same universe as Manning in 2013. Waiting on a quarterback will be popular in 2013 with some nice values hanging around in the later rounds. However, it will be hard to find a better value than Brees if he falls out of the first round. Despite his all-time fantasy greatness, Brees somehow seems underrated.

Thomas does not quite possess the upside of Calvin Johnson, but he gets the edge over the rest of the wide receiver pack due to his elite skills, size, speed, athleticism and role as the favorite target of the most productive quarterback in football.

Thomas finished just one point behind Josh Gordon in fantasy scoring and made it look easy. His 1,400 receiving yards and 14 touchdowns could jump to 1,600 and 16 without shocking anyone. Now the longest-tenured starting target on the Manning-led Broncos, the trust factor with Thomas is at an all-time high. Major injury concerns surround Wes Welker, tight end Julius Thomas is still developing and Emmanuel Sanders is just cracking open the playbook. Defenses can’t give the fifth-year receiver as much attention as they would prefer, and Manning never hesitates to exploit that fact.

Murray is probably the biggest surprise of the first round, but his 2013 performance earns him inclusion in this group. He was a top-10 back last year despite only 217 carries. His 5.2 yards per rushing attempt average was third best in the league for backs with more than 100 carries (behind Andre Ellington and Donald Brown). Murray also had the opportunity to prove his usefulness in the passing game, grabbing 53 passes for 350 yards.

He should continue to see more targets after emerging as a reliable receiving weapon for Tony Romo during his many pass-heavy, late-game drives. The biggest knock against Murray as a No. 1 running back is his minimal track record and injury history—he’s yet to play 16 games and, like Lacy, only has one great season to show for it.

Round 2 (Nos. 13-18)

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13. Zac Stacy, RB8

The Ultimate Waiver-Wire Running Back Pickup from 2013 Award goes to Stacy. In a St. Louis Rams backfield riddled with question marks (Daryl Richardson was a mid-round pick in 2013 drafts!), the rookie running back provided a clear-cut answer. He quickly made life easier for the Rams coaching staff, making the most of his shared backfield opportunities and blowing away his competition.

Stacy finished top 20 among fantasy running backs despite sitting for the first four games. Running behind a sub-par offensive line in an offense with sub-par receivers and a sub-par quarterback, defenses knew Stacy was coming but couldn’t stop him. He should be the centerpiece of the Rams offense again in 2014, hopefully this time with an improved offensive line and supporting cast.

14. Josh Gordon, WR3

A Cleveland Browns wide receiver finished first in fantasy scoring at his position in 2013.

I thought that if I wrote that sentence down it would sound more believable—nope. But it did happen and we all have to live with that fact. Somehow, some way, Gordon totaled 1,646 yards in 14 weeks with a rotating carousel of mediocre to very poor quarterbacks.

Gordon’s historic four-week tear from Week 11 to Week 14 (774 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns) is an astronomical stretch never before achieved by a wide receiver. And Gordon wasn’t exactly catching balls from Tom Brady on the undefeated 2007 New England Patriots. Rather, he accomplished this feat playing with the dubious duo of Brandon Weeden and Jason Campbell. Impressive.

The strikes against Gordon include: 1) He still plays for the Browns, 2) he has a limited track record and 3) he’s one failed drug test away from missing an entire season. His ceiling is equal to or higher than Thomas and Johnson's, but his floor is as low as it gets—on the bench.

It might be a slight to have Green ranked this low. He has been remarkably consistent in his brilliant, three-year career, boasting top-five finishes among fantasy wide receivers in each of the last two seasons. Through three seasons, Green ranks first all time in total receptions and second all time in receiving yards. Still, it’s hard to put him ahead of Megatron, Thomas or Gordon with Andy Dalton still under center. Green is surely a safer play than Gordon but offers slightly less upside.

16. Aaron Rodgers, QB3

Not too much analysis needed here. If he’s healthy, he can be the most productive quarterback in the league on any given week. The Packers finally have a running threat which, while it may mean a few fewer passes from Rodgers, should take some pressure off the pass rush and limit the bracketing of his wide receivers. Keep in mind that Rodgers was the No. 2 overall pick in fantasy drafts as recently as 2012, according to Fantasyfootballcalculator.com.

Martin struggled to put up big fantasy points in the six games he played in 2013 before a torn labrum landed him on injured reserve. Martin’s backups then went on to produce at a high level in his absence. Now, Martin is poised to return as Tampa Bay’s lead back in 2014. What can we expect from Martin going forward?

The answer, of course, is that no one knows for sure. As a result, Martin’s draft value is that of a low-end No. 1 running back. Just nine months ago, reputable fantasy analysts suggested he could be the top overall pick in 2013. Should six mediocre games and one bad injury change that?

In his rookie season, Martin shocked even his most fervent preseason supporters, accumulating a ridiculous 1,926 total yards of offense and 12 total touchdowns on 4.6 yards per rushing attempt. He looked like a complete, top-tier running back; it’s hard to call that a fluke. Martin could be a sleeping giant going in the second round.

18. Andre Ellington, RB10

Rounding out the top 10 running backs is breakout candidate Andre Ellington. Clearly, I’m all-in on Ellington for 2014—and why not? Yes, his professional resume is limited and that adds some risk. Otherwise, what’s not to like?

Head coach Bruce Arians recently stated at February’s NFL Scouting Combine that he wants to build the Cardinals offense around Ellington this year. Former starter Rashard Mendenhall retired and the team only signed the plodding former Pittsburgh Steeler Jonathan Dwyer to replace him. With Jared Veldheer and Jonathan Cooper now on the offensive line, Arizona’s blocking woes should be minimal.

What am I missing? The fact that Ellington may not see 20-plus touches a game? With a skill set and style similar to those of C.J. Spiller and Jamaal Charles, that is almost definitely good news. Ellington is a special talent and his risks are no greater than those of the next running back on the list.

Round 2 (Nos. 19-24)

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19. Le'Veon Bell, RB11

Bell had one 100-plus-yard rushing game in 13 starts in 2013, zero 20-plus-point games, one multi-touchdown game, and 3.5 yards per rushing attempt—none of these stats screams No. 1 fantasy running back, yet several fantasy experts see Bell as a top-10 back for 2014. He was remarkably consistent in his rookie year but never elite.

The Steelers added LeGarrette Blount to the backfield in free agency. He showed flashes of brilliance in New England last year and could pose a decent threat to cut into Bell’s touches, especially near the goal line, where both backs do well.

I wrote about Nelson’s 2014 prospects at length here, along with the next two receivers on this list. In summary, before Rodgers went down with a broken collarbone in Week 9, Nelson was the second-most productive receiver in fantasy, on pace for 1,500 yards and 16 TDs. Despite Rodgers' absence, Nelson still had a career year catching passes from the likes of Scott Tolzien, Seneca Wallace and Matt Flynn. Offseason surgery to repair a nerve issue in his knee appeared to elevate his play. A full season with a healthy Rodgers could equal fantasy gold for Nelson.

21. Alshon Jeffery, WR6

After beginning the year quietly, Jeffery suddenly erupted onto the fantasy scene in 2013, amassing 1,526 yards from scrimmage (second most among wide receivers). He instantly developed into a reliable deep threat for the Chicago Bears, brushing off defensive backs and hauling in wild circus catches week after week. He’s still developing within head coach Marc Trestman’s pass-happy offense and his upside is up there with any receiver in the NFL.

Marshall finished top five in wide receiver scoring in back-to-back years. He’s thrived with the Bears and did not miss a beat during Jeffery’s emergence last season. Luckily, Trestman’s game pla­n can easily accommodate two monster receivers. Marshall is a reliable No. 1 wide receiver whose ceiling is slightly lower than the receivers ranked ahead of him on this list. Despite turning 30 years old and entering his ninth professional season, there still seems to be plenty of tread left on Marshall’s tires.

Bryant was more boom or bust in 2013 than his fantasy owners had hoped, posting seven single-digit games and four 20-plus point games. Three of those big games came in the first five weeks and it was difficult to know which Dez would show up week to week. Bryant still finished top 10 in scoring among receivers and should be drafted accordingly. There are just a few too many other guys producing on a consistently elite level to rank the fifth-year Cowboy higher for 2014.

Opportunity—Ball’s is the greatest for a running back in the NFL. Playing in the league’s most prolific offense while running behind an excellent O-line and facing a rarely crowded box—the cards are stacked in Ball’s favor to explode in 2014.

Following the offseason release of the Broncos’ No. 1 back from last season, Knowshon Moreno, general manager John Elway clearly trusts Ball to carry the load going forward. The team likely drafted the NCAA’s all-time rushing touchdown leader to be a future workhorse back, and now he should get his chance. His current competition is minimal and there are no great free-agent running backs left in the market for Denver to sign. If Ball can prove himself worthy of the unquestioned starting role in the preseason, he is worth top-10 consideration in fantasy drafts.

High-risk No. 1 running backs and low-end No. 1 wide receivers comprise the majority of this round. Every player listed here has top-five potential at their respective positions.

Biggest surprise: Julio Jones, WR9

The consensus in the fantasy community seems to have Jones higher. While I believe his upside is as great as any receiver in the league, his track record is not one in which I want to invest a second-round pick.

Best value: Julius Thomas, TE2

The former college basketball player is still developing as a receiver. He’s only started one season and could make another jump in 2014.

Three reliable, second-tier quarterbacks finally break up the skill position love-fest in this round. Aging veterans and up-and-coming stars define the running backs and wide receivers. When looking for your No. 2 RBs and WRs, will you go with the player who may have a good year or two left, or the one poised to make a leap?

Biggest surprise: Joique Bell, RB21

While he may not represent the same breakaway speed as teammate Reggie Bush, Bell can still put up big numbers when given the opportunity. He’s in a committee but has made the most of limited touches.

Best value: Matthew Stafford, QB4

He has the best receiving weapons of his career and a new coaching staff that should help elevate the offense’s overall consistency.

This round features the first group of players from this year’s free-agent class. Their true value on new teams remains to be seen, so this ranking serves as a hedging of bets. This round also features two embattled running backs who were top 20 overall picks last year in Rice and Ridley. Their ability to bounce back in 2014 will drastically affect their return on investment.

Biggest surprise: Nick Foles, QB7

Foles was neck-and-neck with Peyton Manning in fantasy scoring beginning with his Week 9 breakout through the end of the season. Unless head coach Chip Kelly decides to jump ship on Foles as his starter, he should be a very safe starting quarterback.

Best value: Shane Vereen, RB26

A hand injury kept Vereen off the field for most of 2013, but Tom Brady targeted him constantly when he did play. With his hand finally fully healed, Vereen could emerge as Brady’s first or second most-trusted receiving option.

We’ve officially entered flex territory. It’s all about faith at this point. Can Toby Gerhart flourish as a starter in Jacksonville? Can Trent Richardson erase the memory of a depressing sophomore slump? Is Rob Gronkowski worth the risk?

Biggest surprise: Knowshon Moreno, RB31

A top-five running back from 2013 now falls out of the top 30 without suffering an injury. Yes, the move from Denver to Miami could be that disastrous for Moreno’s value. Especially if trendy 2013 fantasy sleeper Lamar Miller finally emerges.

Best value: Tom Brady, QB8

Brady understandably struggled in 2013 after losing his top five receiving options from the year prior. His current weapons still leave much to be desired, but the upside is tremendous with a sixth-round value.

There’s still a ton of top-level talent in this round, especially among the three quarterbacks. This is where some of the bolder fantasy owners make moves that can win championships (or miss the playoffs).

Biggest surprise: Cam Newton, QB10

Newton produced back-to-back top-five finishes in fantasy scoring among quarterbacks. However, his week-to-week scoring fluctuates to a frustrating degree for his owners. This up-and-down trend should only get worse given Carolina’s horrid corps of wide receivers.

Best value: Emmanuel Sanders, WR31

Targets galore. From Peyton Manning. Need I say more? Sanders failed to put together many big games in his career in Pittsburgh, but that could all change in a flash.