Tuesday, March 19, 2013

The "Incremental" Fallacy

(This is a maxi-post)

Some days back I was chatting with a friend about
the media. Towards the end of the discussion we were talking about “incremental changes” happening in the
media but we had run out of time and couldn’t take it further. Although it
seems like a minor mention the issue of incremental change is an important one
which affects almost all policies in our country. Big changes don’t happen
incrementally, they happen dramatically through choice or by circumstances.
This incrementalism has seeped so deep into our decision-making process that
even minor extensions of FDI are referred to as “Big Bang” by the media. A decision to hike rail fares is being
termed “reforms” by some. In reality, incrementalism doesn’t change much for
anyone. The Radiagate incident, dramatic
as it was, hasn’t brought about too many changes in the media. In fact, nothing
at all! The same tainted people carry on with their propaganda work. Our
lawmakers and govt have also chosen to completely turn a blind eye to Radiagate.
Incrementalism requires sustenance and bad habits have a great gravitational
force about them. They tend to pull us back to the same situation over and over
again.

Incremental changes require sustenance and if there
are repeated events and incidents that disrupt such sustenance, the desired
change will never happen. Clearing all the clutter from your drawers in one
shot is a dramatic or radical change. But to keep it neat and orderly requires a
good habit. When that fails, the drawers return to clutter in no time at all. The
gravitational pull of habits is quite powerful. It requires the power of a
rocket to shoot out of such gravitational pull. That is called dramatic or
radical change. Ever met a smoker who said he will quit? Ever heard him say he
will cut down slowly and finally quit in a month? Has it ever happened? At the
most he may have cut down a few smokes but unlikely he would have quit. But if
he runs into trouble and sees the doctor who tells him “You smoke another pack and you’re dead” then that’s a dramatic insight
about his health that could force him to quit. The quitting doesn’t happen
incrementally, it mostly happens radically.

Rajdeep
Sardesai (RS) is now leading an Image-makeover campaign for CNN-IBN. For the last two months he and
other anchors at his channel have been screaming they are changing. They’re
telling us CNN-IBN is about “News, not
noise! Sense, not sensationalism! Intelligent, not extreme”! Nice! They are
trying to raise the BAR of journalism as RS himself says. Well, who got you to
the bottom in the first place? It now dawns upon RS that in the game of noise
and sensationalism someone else turned up who played the game better. So RS now
wants to choose a moral path of upright journalism. This is not voluntary
change, this is change forced by circumstances. Even this is merely
incremental. Forgive me, but any channel that has Sagarika Ghose cannot even remotely claim they’re NOT in the “noise” business. Sacking her would
imply dramatic change but I doubt RS really wants change. And sack her not
because she is noisy, but she is not really a journalist who measures up to any
BAR. He just wants you to think better of him and his channel. Here’s what RS
wrote in February 2013 (edited excerpts) Making sense of sensationalist TV journalism: (A word of caution: I am using
RS’s quotes because he talked about change but this is not to single him out,
his quotes are used for the whole media).

In 1998, there was only one
24x7 news network. Today, there are more than 300 round the clock news
channels, carnivorously devouring every morsel of news, the noisier the better…
News has been replaced by noise, sense by sensationalism, history by
histrionics; the medium is the same but the message has drastically changed.

It is convenient to forget the misdeeds of that ONE
24X7 channel that RS talks about. The BAR set by the members of that channel
have contributed to degeneration of TV news. What RS doesn’t acknowledge is
that now there a million eyes watching over these noise-mongers. It’s commonly
called “Social Media”. Even today RS
and his gang of noise-mongers refuse to accept a watchdog that will ensure they
maintain quality standards. RS still believes he is still his own best
policeman. And so does the BAR.

Take the recent Indo-Pak
fracas at the Line of Control. The dastardly beheading of an Indian soldier and
Pakistan's reflexive denial rightly led to indignation in the country. But when
justifiable anger threatens to turn into uncontrolled jingoism in TV studios,
to the point where the Indian government is forced to send back Pakistani
hockey players, stop trade relations and almost rupture diplomatic ties, then
we must ask ourselves whether war-mongering hysteria is what must define the
media's collective responsibility.

I have always said there are two RSs; one on TV and
the other off it. The one off it sometimes thinks profoundly like a monk. I
agree, stopping hockey games is a knee-jerk reaction. But RS doesn’t ask the
question why we started hockey, cricket or any other relations with Pakistan in
the first place. The reason we fail to deal with Pakistan is the same
incremental crap with which RS hopes to change the image of his channel. Even
so, if RS is really serious he should first look at the hypocrisy within his
own group. His water-less Holi sermon for ordinary people and his deputy
rollicking in a swimming pool should tell him something. The comic duo never
fails.

Let’s see, 65 years, 3 wars, number of major and
minor skirmishes, LOC beheadings, terror attacks, hijackings, bombings and we
are still worried about hockey games. Where have all the incremental steps
taken us with Pakistan? First we said peace and cricket. Then more wars. We
said peace and cricket. Then came terror attacks and ethnic cleansing in
Kashmir and other places. We said peace, let’s play cricket. Mumbai 26/11 and
we exchange dossiers and the media starts “Aman
Ki Asha”. We say peace, let’s play cricket. We say let’s build confidence
building measures (CBMs). Bollywood says
let’s get some Paki dancers on our shows, let’s play cricket. And I have lost
count of all the morons who never stop saying “peepull to peepull contact”. Our
media says let’s frequently suck up to war-criminal Musharraf and maybe we will
get peace. Let’s play cricket. Ever seen anything more incrementally foolish
about a nation? When it comes to Pakistan, India too is like that smoker who
says he will cut down slowly and quit. It has never worked. Incrementalism in tough situations gets you
nowhere.

RS talks about 1998. Imagine, around that time
there was no Google. The arrival of Google dramatically changed the world. The
Yahoos and MSNs may have gotten better incrementally but Google brought
dramatic change through innovation. Then followed Youtube, Facebook, Twitter
and a host of other innovations, people changed, not the MSM. RS and news
channels did not change. It’s the world around them that changed and forced
introspection on him. Can he admit that honestly? Can he take his message of
change to all the other crooks in his own Hammam? I doubt it. They don’t want
change, they want to “appear”
better. Try ‘Fair & Handsome’.

In the unfortunate incident
in Kashmir involving an all-women band, did we make enough of an effort to seek
out the voices of reason and moderation or does it suit us to paint every
Kashmiri with the brush of religious extremism? A fulminating Asiya
Andrabi-like anti-India figure fits a stereotype we wish to create of the
average Kashmiri; the voices of young Kashmiris who express solidarity with the
girls get blanked out.

When you assess the problem itself wrongly, you are
bound to end up a Don Quixote. The Kashmir girl-band issue didn’t start now. It
started it 1989 when the govt allowed extremists and terrorists to displace
lakhs of its residents. It started when the media for over 2 decades continued
to ignore the plight of refugees in their own land and still do. They empowered
extremists by sending them a message that the Fiberals in the media will cover
up their crimes and allow them to play victim. It has gone so far that the
media has even coined the term “moderate
separatists”. When I heard the CRPF Jawans who were killed in the last
terror attack in Srinagar (March 13) were without guns I called it murder. A
Kashmiri “youth” responds that he
would have loved a 1000 CRPF jawans to have died. Who’s the voice of young
Kashmiris that RS talks about? The one in the tweet? Or is that a lie too? What evidence does RS or media have that most
Kashmiri youth don’t think like this guy? Asking
CRPF Jawans to fight terrorists with Lathis is the incremental nonsense that
costs lives.

In an article in Firstpost, Praveen Swami notes how the Fiberals are damaging
the cause of India’s fight against jihadis. Er… Where Fiberals are concerned
can Macaulay Putri Sagarika Ghose can
be far behind? In her article that Swami quotes she laments Muslims being
targeted by Police. This is as Bimboesque as it can get as Swami himself
explains. But she feels we are soft on “saffron
terror”. Now, she doesn’t have the guts or the honesty to confront Islamic
terror because if she rants about that she knows the consequences. And then,
when the Hyderabad attacks happened she was tweeting about “meat shops”? Why she wants to play one
community as a permanent victim and her many other goof-ups are reasons why RS
should first sack her if he is serious about change or his slogan about “news not noise” not being as hollow as
“waterless Holi” with deputy in the
swimming pool. Does he really want change? No! He just wants us to think better
of him. If he wants his reputation to go up, he must demonstrate that change.
Mere slogans like “waterless Holi” won’t sell.

Today, many states are competing with each other on
who provides lesser power-cuts. Some have 8 hours, some have 16 hours. Is that
the incremental goal to be fought for? Then they compete on who gives more water-hours.
Forty years ago someone came up with “Garibi
Hatao” and we are still doing “Garibi Hatao”. That’s how incrementalism
fails. In contrast, a young democracy came up with the “Green revolution” in agriculture. That’s a radical approach, a
revolution it was called. Revolutions
are not incremental. The late Verghese
Kurien came up with “Operation flood”
in milk. An “operation” is not a call for incrementalism it’s a call for
radical change on war-footing.

It would be easy for
critics to blame the television rating point system as the 'evil' responsible
for the declining standards. Yes, weekly TRPs do reduce journalism at times to
tabloid-like box office, but would a more sophisticated measurement of content
really change the manner in which we choose to do news? The truth is, we have
lost the moral compass that should define journalism's priorities. Maybe we
have got carried away with our celebrity status, maybe just being on camera is
a drug that prevents us from separating right from wrong and rediscovering our
inner conscience.

Critics are
not blaming the TRP system. The TV channels are blaming the TRP system and
filing cases against it like NDTV
did. If the confession that “we have got carried away
with our celebrity status” has any honesty then let’s see some radical
changes. Viewers will flock to the channel that brings in dramatic change and
so will advertisers. Many surgeries seem to be routine or minor but they
aren’t. All surgeries are radical
changes to a body. The only way incrementalism works is physically. If
there are stairs you can climb one step at a time. If you’re ill you can recover
in stages. From a child to old-age is an incremental process. If you’re fat you
can diet, exercise and lose weight in due course. “One day at a time” is a good line to quote because we are uncertain
of the certainty of death which will one day visit us.

In the current state we are in, incrementalism will
simply not work. Italy slaps us, Sri Lanka slaps us, Bangladesh snubs us,
Maldives snubs us and Pakistan keeps bombing us here and there. These can’t be
solved with incrementalism. Even after
26/11 we said let’s play cricket. Radiagate didn’t change the media one bit
in anyway. It only changed the way consumers looked at news and the anchors.
They started using terms like “Paid
media” and “Dalal media”. So if RS
speaks for his clan and wants to be respected, he had better start doing the
good things first. And that will take radical change not slogans like “Garibi
Hatao” or “News, not noise, sense, not sensationalism”. Is it easy? No! No
revolution, no radical change is ever easy. Paradigm shifts cannot happen incrementally.

Well said! I was expecting a rebuttal for the tweet of Cacafonix. But it came a bit too fast.There's a Tamil proverb that means " Looking for good shagun with a cat on the lap." Look at God's design, How he exposes the hollowness of these Media celebs. Will RS dare answer this Hippocratic act. If he has someone please post a link.

Perfectly deliberated, would just add one point Radical change doesnt usually happen from within ... or else Nokia with the highest R&D budget in the Handphone Industry would have had its radical change ... Radical change as I see it will be driven through alternative media like your blog and the in-numerous other efforts in this direction ... keep going, you ARE the change ! I wouldnt expect the incumbents to change .... maybe a Lou Gerstner taking over one of these channels may bring in the change ... but that's a long shot :)

Radical changes always happen from within...when one self realizes the need for it. Ashoka is great example.

Nokia will never reach out for radical changes b/c it has enjoyed absolute leadership in mobile phones market for long...and they want to believe in same forever...though this tile is over for it long back...whatever changes it will do will be superficial.

Radical change DOES happen from within. It happens on gaining new or dramatic insights. It is with such insights that companies like Chrysler and IBM were once turned around. The question is not one of possibility, it's one of willingness.

I did refer to IBM's turnaround, but even that needed a Lou Gerstner, a rank outsider who wasnt even from the Tech industry to bring radical change.... change from within is not impossible but highly unlikely ....

Curiosity got me to read up the chrysler story ... apparently even there Sergio Marchionne, the turnaround specialist had to be brought from outside to turn around the company .. we need some outsider to take over some of these media houses to clean it up from the inside :)

Lee Iaccoca is an older story from Sergio you mention. Importantly, its not about "insider outsider" as much as it is about gaining a new "insight" and new "paradigm". Vikram Pandit wasnt exactly an outsider at Citibank. The Buddha changed thru insights. Ashoka changed thru insight. All of them share something in commmon: they are thought and people leaders. Most importantly, when APPLE slumped dramatically, they had to recall Steve Jobs who was more than an insider - he was the founder. So the essence is new "insights" and "paradigm shifts" of leaders. For every outsider we quote.. there are also many outsiders who have failed. Other than that, your points are well made.

my personal opinion "Radical changes cannot sustain against the power of Habits" , Even UPAs descendence into chaos is radical more and more. NaMos buildup is also incremental, now that it is habit for development and new ideas

A pre-condition to radical change is sacrificing or changing some habits. UPAs slipped into chaos incrementally, that's true. It's because they are unwilling to change. NaMo build up is not incremental. If not for dramatic events of 2002 and the constant campaign against him by media and many others, I doubt Modi would have achieved the same attention and prominence. Even a "radical jihadi" has to sacrifice his normal life and beliefs into willingness to kill others and prepare to die himself. That requires change of habits.

Thanks for the response, I agree that NaMo rise has been radical due to 2002 and sustained malignant campaign

Refine my original statement , Radical changes including policy need to shake the system but the alternative has to be incrementally implemented and sustained over time. 2002 was radical and so is Modis development mantra , but implementation of the desired change, changing the habits of bureacracy , grievance redressal etc... has been sustained ruthlessness and professionalism.

Thanks for the message as it was personally changed my view of changing some of my habits radically

Any good student of psychology will tell it is very difficult to change the attitude of a person sitting on top or enjoying absolute power ….and that too if it is forced upon. Shatranj ke khildai is movie based on this attitude...they will prefer dying or go in to oblivion rather push themselves for change. It is futile to ask them or give them direction for changes….that too radical changes.When Gandhi family knows very well that if they even do "some" development and little "less" corruption they can remain in power ever...but they even do not want to do that.

...by the time they get their "news" aired ..people would have forgotten MSM like a bad noise. And RS and SG using that saved holi's chullu bhar water to doob marne ke liye.

very good thoughts. i used to watch discussions by these media crooks of all channels and found them to be injurious to health, just as smoking is and should be stopped , I stopped watching them all , full stop. When I read on twitter Tonite on crook channel X , I could imagine what kind of nonsense will will be taled about and believe me on sample check I would see the same nonsense on each channel and shut TV or change channel. If people stop watching all 24x7 nonsense that will be big change and big names should announce it in social media.By the way the channel 18 which owned by big oil industrialist, do you think owners will not have say what is aired and against whom? So what is big deal if RS says any thing, it is censored any way by owners and strict guidelines are drawn in the game.You want big change? Stop watching cacophony!

Sir Ji,I was about to tweet you about holi and water thing, u mentioned a little in this. It has became practice of media.At the time of diwali they will start singing pollution...it come once in a year but they care about it most not about industries illegal vehicles and trees are cut without reason..I have been to US, canada and now in Denmark there is sop much fireworks(Denmark being least polluted country in the world)They will cry at time of navratri and ganesh chaturthi of Noice and water pollution...don't cry on industrial waste in rivers They will cry over milk on shivji on shivratri...oh like all other time that milk goes to thin hungry kid from Africa(whose picture always shown)...bash bash bash Hinduism...What i have learned in professional life, if you can not organize something or do something correctly you blame it on someone else...Hinduism seems the most easy to go thing blame it and be happy :(...Hope you write on this some time...i am no writer... can just tell feelings

@Vivek GargHow right you are! Some Uttarakhand temples had this ancient practice of goat sacrifice on a few festivals. There was such a great hue and cry about it and NGOs took the matter to Courts which promptly banned the goat slaughter, perhaps the right thing to do too.However I have not read about a single instance of any NGO protesting about goat slaughter on Eid or any Court banning it!

Yes that is how... it is planned activity every single hindu fetival is bashed and no other riligion...here i tried to right little more but again i am not a write if someone can write it with more detailed analysis...http://www.facebook.com/gargvivek10/posts/435813429840534

Hypocrisy of Network 18 group: while their news channels preach a no-water Holi, their entertainment channel Colors shoots for Holi specials with their television actors! Where is the drought in this case ?

sir, i keep reading you so much so that i keep reading the old ones too (ones which i've already read). this article to me is your best ever. frankly now, i'm spell bound, don't know what to comment. let me see, sometimes later if something comes across, will post. cheers.

He is waking up at 4 o'clock, taking bath with one bucket water, doing sun-namaskaar and letting others play holi with saved water thus gaining this wisdom to write so ecstatically .....compare to people who are going to bed at 4am, doing son-namaskaar whole day, taking bath in pool and asking others to save water by not playing holi so they can dip again 2morrow. LOL!!

The money behind the channel needs to dry up for a drastic change. The guys in power do not wish for changes in status quo. We all on the internet can rant and rave, but unless we do not vote the right ideology in, we can never ever see the change.

The drastic change may be guillotines for the majority of the media folk.

For similar charges, media, courts and everyone hounded Mr Yediyurappa, made him to spend sometime in jail without any reason, and charge-sheeted by CBI. Strangely, media even in Karnataka, is silent on Moily. Resons?

Let's be practical, how can RS sack his wife ? He is visionary enough to know whats in store once he reaches home ;-)Note: He has already mixed his personal/ professional life by working in same office

Check history of Banana if you are interested to know how it manully evolved into a curve shaped fruit, it was product of man's intelligence in modifying the banana shape otherwise it had different shape and if it is kept staight it looks like a dildo. In other words it looks like Ajit Vadakayil if straight.

Very good article as usual. I also recommend you to read, if I may, a really good article in Firstpost: http://www.firstpost.com/living/the-left-liberal-idea-of-india-is-mere-idea-and-no-india-665191.html.

Wonderful .....Ravinarji you are the greatest writer of our generation in India.

Now the real problem with this Rajdeep Sardesai and his tribe is they want us to believe, that they are changing. Again it is an attempt to fool us..

Rajdeep, Credibility is gained through your constant, selfless, honest, unbiased and ethical work. (Do you remember Cash for vote?? How are you going to correct that impression. ) Not through these idiotic tweets.

A few weeks ago, SG was again peddling her untruths with "Muslim youth ill-treated by cops" or some such topic where a few detained Muslim youth talked about being handcuffed by police and pushed around in the police station. If anyone in India has witnessed happenings in a police station or is unfortunate enough to be arrested, this is standard treatment most citizens of India without connects are subjected to in police stations. There was nothing unusual in the treatment meted out to the youth, however innocent they might have been. To project this as Muslim targeting and by perpetuating the Muslim victimhood argument is the greatest disservice SG and her ilk are doing to the country. They would've singularly contributed to more Indian Muslims taking to violence than any of the army of recruiters of Hafeez Saeed, Al Qaida, IM, etc. No wonder Hafeez Saeed has a smirk on his face when it comes to India(did you notice the similarity in the smirks of HS and RS?).

But for the dangerous consequences of alienating even sane Muslims, watching SG would've passed off as good comedy. Her ridiculous "but, but, but" style was a dead giveaway that even she did not believe the BS that she was dishing out.

While her lipstick, hairstyle and her stupid expressions scream "I am a bimbo", the minute she opens her mouth, she seems to proclaim "I am a dumbo". God save India and all TV viewers from the RS-SG combo.

Hi Ravinar, I discovered your blog barely couple of months ago. But now, i've to check it everyday for updates! recently, in twitter i've come across this interesting link http://secularjournalists.blogspot.com/2013/01/rajdeep-sardesais-article-on-dawood.html. What's your opinion on it. And i've come across a tweet by super intelligent Sagarika Ghose giving an intelligent & good speaker certificate to Akbaruddin Owaisi after his hate speech in Andhra Pradesh. Is there way we can report these persons to some authority, clearly this is beyond any ethics & morals of media. These guys are beyond redemption.

Hi Ravinar - I am a recent follower of your website. Your writings strike a chord with many indian people like me. The more amd more these pathetic pseudo sickularists try to malign Modi, more and more I think I should vote only for BJP. Thanks a lot for your excellent work. Best wishes to you.Prasad

During one of the debates on Sanjay Dutt yesterday in Headlines today, Retd. Judge Katju who like a parrot was repeating the same lines-"you get me a case of a poor under-trial in custody and convince me. I will raise my voice". Subramanian Swamy gave him a tight slap by saying that I give you the case of Sadhvi Pragya who is jail for years for no reason. The most funny reaction came from the anchor Rahul Kanwal who got petrified, started stammering and somehow changed the topic. I really feel bad for such anchors who work under so much pressure.

This is one more outstanding article by You. I want to raise a request to you. I have seriously stopped reading Newspapers these days as almost everyone of them is sucking down money by Congress. TOI i stopped like 6 Years back, HT 3 Years, DNA & Indian Express recently. Any research on that might be great.

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