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September 12, 2012

NFL Odds, Week 2: Dallas Cowboys @ Seattle Seahawks

DALLAS COWBOYS atSEATTLE SEAHAWKSBe
careful what you wish for. I might mean Russell Wilson being anointed the
starting quarterback in Seattle or Kevin Kolb taking over for an injured John
Skelton in the fourth quarter last Sunday. Or both.In
all fairness, I think that after the dust has settled on Week 1, we can
emphatically discount the former. I wouldn’t necessarily join the chorus who
say that Wilson blatantly looked like a rookie in Arizona, although that’s not
to say that he can’t be accused of (that does look a bit strong when written
down) making some rookie mistakes. Heck, he is a rookie and these things are
going to happen, but he still possesses something special and will win football
games for the Seahawks, no matter how disconsolate we may feel right now. That
we most definitely can wish for.

No,
if we want to discuss somebody who personified the true identity of a rabbit in
headlights on his regular season debut, then all we need do is thank the
Football Gods that Brandon Weeden doesn’t reside on the Seahawks’ roster. Even
after one game, I’d be hoping that Colt McCoy gets the nod in Week 2 if I were
a Browns follower. McCoy was always the better quarterback and now we know that
to be an obvious truth.

Why
the interest in Cleveland here? It’s because, before enduring the painful seven
hours (which is what it seemed like in the final two minutes) of Seattle’s
defeat to the Cardinals, I had money riding on the Browns +9 at home to
Philadelphia and, while emotionally it doesn’t compare to watching the
Seahawks, watching Weeden have to rely on his defense in order for his team to
cover the spread, wasn’t pretty. Ultimately, I got the result, but that doesn’t
help us as a community any.

One
glaring irony to reflect upon after Sunday is that the quarterback who’d looked
the most accomplished in the preseason didn’t get it done against the
quarterback who’d looked the most abject in the preseason. How Kolb pulled what
he did against a defense that had slowly strangled Skelton in the second half
defies logic. All logic.

If
I may go back to the beginning of the game, as soon as the ball was kicked off,
it felt like a big game. It felt like a playoff game and I honestly don’t think
that’s hyperbole. I can think of so many games from last season where the
atmosphere came nowhere close to what was evident on Sunday and with Jeff
Fisher already looking as though he’ll have the London Rams in tons
better shape than last year, the NFC West will gradually inch further away from
ridicule.

Before
Week 1, I had Dallas pegged +2.5 for this one, but that’s now been turned on
its head. Our partners at Oddsshark opened the line with Seattle +2.5, but the
hosts are available +3 with a plethora of online bookmakers (the entire
directory is too long to list here) that includes bet365, William Hill and
32RedBet. Personally, I have the Seahawks +3.5, a line not founded in
pessimism, but a healthy dose of realism with its roots firmly entrenched in an
injury report that hugely favours ‘America’s Team’.

Aside
from quarterback, wide receiver in the Pacific Northwest had generated the most
discussion throughout the offseason; quarterback may yet top the trending
billboard any time soon, but that’s way too soon in my opinion.

After
a Sunday in the desert that saw Doug Baldwin lose his front teeth and Charly
Martin remain hospitalised in Arizona having suffered a bruised lung (which
barely believes thinking about), Seattle’s looking a little vulnerable at
receiver. Note ‘little’ as it’s not earth shattering...yet. Yes, Golden Tate is
expected to play, but we’re up against a more than useful secondary that boasts
Brandon Carr and Morris Claiborne at cornerback.

Left
tackle Russell Okung limped out of Sunday’s game with what turned out to be
only a bruised knee, but he wasn’t enjoying his most memorable outing before
that. There’s no guarantee he’ll play this Sunday, but if he does he won’t be
able to afford any slip ups against DeMarcus Ware, arguably the NFL’s most
dominant, all round pass rusher. Ware notched up two sacks against the Giants
and my fear is that Okung will have an ego as bruised as his knee, come Sunday
evening. Look for the Seahawks to give Okung some help against Ware, something
I didn’t imagine myself writing before the season began.

Winning
on the road in the NFL should never be underestimated and, should this be
accomplished, it often translates to that team covering the spread at the same
time (the Eagles failed to do both last week).

Having
smashed the spread in New Jersey last week, Dallas can expect to find themselves
heavily fancied to do the same this Sunday and should they repeat their Week 1
feat, that’ll make them a dangerous team to bet against in future weeks.
However, even though the Cowboys have had the longest week imaginable between
regular season games, they have had to travel to opposite sides of the country
on consecutive weeks (via Cowboy Ranch), which may account for something for
those who feel the Seahawks to be good value.

As
the season wears on, where a team ranks offensively and defensively becomes
more and more important when considering which teams represent the most value
ATS (against the spread), but it’s way too early to judge any team on that,
otherwise the whole world and his dog would be on the Buccaneers this week (+9
at the Giants...hmmm, that is tempting though), having surrendered only 10
yards rushing against the Panthers last week. Considering that Carolina was
able to unleash DeAngelo Williams and Cam Newton on the ground makes that
particular statistic the most ludicrous from Week 1 and one not to be
trusted...for the moment; Tampa Bay could be playoff bound.

Likewise,
as much as we may be clinging to the burgeoning euphoria of yielding only 43
yards rushing last week in defeat, it means little after one game...for the
moment.

Wilson
was pressured constantly by a Cardinals defense I’d underestimated and, should
they perform at that level throughout the season, they’ll keep Arizona in more
games than I envisioned. As a point of interest (?), they’re available +13.5 in
New England this Sunday.

Cowboys’
stud nose tackle Jay Ratliff missed last week’s opener, but he certainly wasn’t
missed when it came to defending the run as the Giants reverted to type from
2011, cultivating only 82 yards on the ground. Should Ratliff be available this
week (which is unlikely...thankfully!), Wilson can expect to see/feel as much
pressure as he did last week. How he deals with that and the undoubted pressure
from Ware, will determine much, but that isn’t rocket science, if I’m honest
with myself and the readership. In fact, if I’m honest with myself again, even
without Ratliff playing, Wilson can still expect as much heat as he felt last
week.

Delving
a little deeper, what Wilson won’t have to deal with this week is (divisional)
crowd noise when lining up under center. Conversely, Cowboys QB, Tony Romo, has
previous with the Seahawks faithful and, knowing him to once be vulnerable to
such a cacophony in the same surroundings, can expect to find himself difficult
to be heard when directing the offense at the line of scrimmage.

Should
Dallas beat Seattle, they can immediately be spoken of in the same breath as
New England, San Francisco and Baltimore (and it’s ridiculous to discount Green
Bay after one home loss, albeit to a good team) as serious threats to go all
the way to the Super Bowl, the obvious reason being that not only would they be
2-0, but 2-0 on the road against perceived good teams. However, Romo won’t have
it so easy when looking for Kevin Ogletree this week.

It’s
one thing to beat up on a Giants secondary missing Terrell Thomas and Prince
Amukamara, quite another trying to do the same against a dynamic Seahawks
secondary, a secondary still smarting from Kolb picking their locks. In
addition, unlike the Giants right now, Seattle’s starting cornerbacks and
safeties are all healthy, something to seriously consider for those leaning
towards the Cowboys.

This
is incredibly close to call, but, whereas I’ll always advise on which games to
avoid when looking at the weekly spreads around the league, I will be going out
on a limb when looking at the Seahawks and always with an objective eye.