How long a missing person might survive, the Time Frame For Survival (TFFS), is a vital element of the planning and conduct of many SAR operations. The TFFS is a complex matrix of the individual’s physical characteristics, physiology, medical history and condition, and the environmental conditions.

Medical profiling begins with an assessment of the SAR situation; where the misssing person was last seen, when, and the circumstances of their becoming the subject of a SAR operation. One or more possible scenarios are constructed, and a TFFS worked out for each scenario.

Estimation of the TFFS for each scenario depends on physical characteristics such as age, fitness, sex and body mass index; all influence how quickly a missing person would become hypo- or hyperthermic, how long they might remain mobile, how far they might move, and for how long they may be able to assist searchers.

Terrain affects survivability by how much effort and body water is expended in traversing it, the availability of shelter, and presence or absence of drinkable water. Dehydration is often the survival-limiting factor, both on land and for those missing in the marine environment.

Prevailing weather conditions, clothing, last food and drink, and a missing person’s mental and emotional state add to the complexity of estimation of TFFS.

Case studies will be used to illustrate the medical factors in TFFS, and how the TFFS is incorporated in the planning and conduct of a SAR operation.

Dr Luckin is an Anaesthetist in Brisbane. He started training in rescue as an Ambulance Paramedic in Tasmania before studying medicine in South Africa, where he spent 8 years in a Mountain Rescue Team. Paul served on the Tasmanian Ambulance Service Medical Advisory Council and was Director of the Advanced Airway Management Training Program, and President of Royal Life Saving Society Tasmania Branch.

Dr Luckin teaches Search and Rescue at the state and national level, and is on the directing staff of the National Police Search and Rescue Managers Course. He provides advice on survivability during Search and Rescue operations to the Australian Maritime Safety Authority, Police Search and Rescue teams across the nation, and to Australian Federal Police in PNG and the Solomon Islands.

As a Captain in the Royal Australian Naval Reserve, he is a member of the Submarine Escape and Rescue Medical team. Paul has served in Bougainville, East Timor, the Solomon Islands, in the Resuscitation and Retrieval Team for the victims of the Bali bombs, in the first medical team into Banda Aceh following the tsunami, and in Afghanistan.

He is Medical Director, Medical Services Branch, St John Ambulance Queensland, and has been invested as a Commander of the Order of St John (CStJ).For his work in SAR, in 2006 Paul received the Australian National Search & Rescue Award, and in 2015 he was made a Member of the Order of Australia, AM, for significant service to the community through emergency medicine, and as an authority on survivability in search and rescue operations.