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2017: The Year in Charts

The overbearing persona of President Trump dominated 2017. From his angry early morning tweets to the stain of corruption bleeding into his administration to the sharp rightward tilt in his governing philosophy, Mr. Trump in his first year in office could not stand in starker contrast to his predecessor, Barack Obama. Meanwhile, strong economic performance in 2017 — a legacy for which Mr. Trump should thank Mr. Obama — masked the reality that the new president failed to propose or carry out any significant policies that would help the white working-class Americans who helped elect him.

Trump’s Dismal First Year

The divisive campaign waged by Mr. Trump and his harsh inaugural address put him in office with the poorest approval ratings of any recent president. From that inauspicious beginning, his ratings continued to tumble, as a result of his numerous false and sometimes racially charged statements, his often unpopular policy initiatives and allegations regarding Russian meddling in the election. Of course, many new presidents see their approval ratings fall in their first year as the postelection glow begins to fade. But because of his poor start, Mr. Trump is distinguished as being the only president to finish his first year with more Americans disapproving of his performance than approving of it.

Here are net ratings — the gap, in percentage points, between those who approve and disapprove — for six presidents in the months after their first inauguration.

+80

+76

Reagan

Bush I

Clinton

Bush II

Obama

+60

+51

+40

+14

+20

+8

+8

0

–7

–20

Trump

–26

Jan.

Dec.

Jan.

Dec.

+80

+76

Reagan

Bush I

Clinton

Bush II

Obama

+60

+51

+40

+14

+20

+8

+8

0

–7

–20

Trump

–26

Jan.

June

Dec.

Jan.

June

Dec.

Jan.

June

Dec.

Jan.

June

Dec.

Jan.

June

Dec.

Jan.

June

Dec.

+80

+76

Reagan

Bush I

Clinton

Bush II

Obama

+60

+51

+40

+14

+20

+8

+8

0

–7

–20

Trump

–26

Jan.

June

Dec.

Jan.

June

Dec.

Jan.

June

Dec.

Jan.

June

Dec.

Jan.

June

Dec.

Jan.

June

Dec.

Source: Gallup

The Partisan Abyss

Surprisingly, Mr. Trump chose to pitch his young presidency toward his base, in contrast to most new presidents who try to reach out to those who did not vote for them, particularly moderates. As a result, Mr. Trump has remained as popular within his own party as his predecessors but more unpopular among the opposition party than previous presidents. The fear of a Trump counterpunch or worse, a primary challenge, as well as a strong desire to pass at least some Republican legislative priorities such as tax cuts, has helped keep Republican senators and representatives from criticizing him. And for all his unpopularity, most observers (including me) believe that the president will complete his first term, as the prediction markets indicate.

Party affiliation governs presidential approval ratings. Here is how the last four presidents fared in their first year in office. (George W. Bush saw bipartisan support after Sept. 11.)

What Democrats

thought of …

What Republicans

thought of …

Their own

guys:

The other

guys:

Their own

guys:

The other

guys:

Obama

Bush

100%

98

84

77

Trump

80

78

Clinton

Bush

50%

Obama

27

Trump

Clinton

6

17

Jan.

Dec.

Jan.

Dec.

Jan.

Dec.

Jan.

Dec.

What Democrats thought of …

What Republicans thought of …

Their own guys:

The other guys:

Their own guys:

The other guys:

Obama

Bush

100%

100

98

84

Trump

80

77

78

Bush

Clinton

50%

50

Obama

27

Trump

Clinton

6

17

Jan.

June

Dec.

Jan.

June

Dec.

Jan.

June

Dec.

Jan.

June

Dec.

Source: Gallup

Ignore the Bragging. Trump’s Presidency Has Not Been Productive.

“There has never been a 10-month president that has accomplished what we have accomplished,” Mr. Trump said on Nov. 29 in what he described as a “non-braggadocious way.” That was a lie. The number of bills signed by Mr. Trump in his first 337 days was lower than any president since at least Dwight Eisenhower. And most of those bills were minor, except, of course, for the tax bill, passed just before the Christmas holiday. Apart from the legislative front, Mr. Trump was also slow to staff his administration, while many of his campaign promises — from a $1 trillion infrastructure program to the famed border wall — remain unfulfilled.

Bills signed into law during the first 337 days of each presidency.

Nixon

213

Carter

241

Reagan

109

Bush I

242

Clinton

209

Bush II

102

Obama

121

96

Trump

Bills

related to

to space,

science

4

Reversing

Obama

regs.

16

Ceremonial,

bureaucratic

and routine laws

62

Until the tax bill, Trump had not signed any significant legislation.

1

Bills related

to veterans

13

Richard M. Nixon

213

Jimmy Carter

241

Ronald Reagan

109

George H.W. Bush

242

Bill Clinton

209

George W. Bush

102

Barack Obama

121

96

Donald J. Trump

Until the tax bill, Trump had not signed any significant legislation.

1

Bills related

to space

and science

4

Bills

related to

veterans

13

Reversing

Obama

regulations

16

Ceremonial,

routine and

bureaucratic

laws

62

Trump figures as of Dec. 22. Sources: GovTrack; author’s calculations

A Fresh Windfall for the Rich

Time will tell whether Mr. Trump’s signature tax bill will be judged a success. It was rushed to a vote after extraordinarily little debate. It will vastly reward corporate America, largely by adding at least $1.4 trillion — and likely, much more — to the national debt. It will confer embarrassingly modest benefits on middle- and working-class Americans relative to what will be received by the wealthy. While America’s corporate tax code was in desperate need of revamping, the lack of any meaningful effort to eliminate corporate loopholes suggested that far from draining the swamp, Mr. Trump embraced it. So far, the American people aren’t fooled; this appalling piece of legislation has the lowest approval rating of any major bill passed since 1990.

In both dollar and percentage terms, the 2018 tax cuts skew to the richest American households (and will continue to do so for many years). Overall, 65 percent of the cuts go to the top 20 percent of taxpayers.

Quintile,

income range

(in 2017

dollars)

Percentage

increase

in after-tax

income

Average

tax cut

for 2018

tax year

Bottom

$60

0.4%

0 to $25,000

Second

$380

1.2

$25,000 to $48,600

Middle

$930

1.6

$48,600 to $86,100

Fourth

$1,810

1.9

$86,100 to $149,400

Segments of the top quintile:

80-90

$149,400

to $216,800

$2,970

2.0

90-95

$216,800

to $307,900

$4,550

2.2

95-99

$5,000

$307,900

to $732,800

$13,480

4.1

Top 1%

$5,000

More than

$732,800

$51,140

3.4

$10,000

Top 0.1%

$193,380

More than

$3,439,900

2.7

Quintile

Income (2017 dollars)

Percentage increase

in after-tax income

Average tax cut for 2018 tax year

$60

0.4%

0 to $25,000

Bottom

$380

1.2

$25,000 to $48,600

Second

$930

1.6

$48,600 to $86,100

Middle

$1,810

1.9

$86,100 to $149,400

Fourth

Segments of

the top quintile:

$2,970

2.0

80-90

$149,400 to $216,800

$4,550

2.2

90-95

$216,800 to $307,900

$13,480

$5,000

4.1

95-99

$307,900 to $732,800

$5,000

$51,140

3.4

Top 1%

More than $732,800

$10,000

$193,380

2.7

Top 0.1%

More than $3,439,900

Source: Tax Policy Center

Give Trump Some Credit: Bumps in Economic Confidence

To be sure, Mr. Trump’s arrival was accompanied by a significant jump in business optimism and a more modest rise in consumer confidence. The improvement in sentiment in the private sector shouldn’t be shocking: If you had been told that you would receive a huge tax cut and be freed from thousands of government regulations, wouldn’t you feel better about your business? As for consumers, their improved mood since the election represents a continuation of a trend that began in 2009 as the floodwaters of the financial crisis were starting to recede. But interestingly, immediately after the election Democrats became more pessimistic about the economy while Republicans became more optimistic.

Consumer and business sentiment rose after the election. Indexed to 1986 = 100.

Consumer

sentiment

Highest since Jan. 2001

Small-business

confidence

Highest since July 1983

(monthly surveys

began 1986)

120

NOV.

2017

DEC.

2017

100

80

60

’86

’90s

’00s

’10s

’86

’90s

’00s

’10s

Consumer sentiment

Highest since Jan. 2001

Small-business confidence

Highest since July 1983

(monthly surveys began 1986)

120

NOV.

2017

DEC.

2017

100

80

60

’86

’90s

’00s

’10s

’86

’90s

’00s

’10s

Larger swings in consumer sentiment, compared to small-business confidence, are partly due to methodology and the nature of survey questions. Sources: University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers; National Federation of Independent Business

The Global Economy Is in Its Best Shape in Decades

Figuring out how much credit Mr. Trump deserves for the rise in the stock market is complicated. For one thing, at long last, the world economy is firing on all cylinders — perhaps not as strongly as we would like in the United States and Europe, but moving upward nonetheless. In fact, only six countries are expected to be in recession in 2018, the smallest number on record. Growing economies have helped propel corporate profits and thus stock markets upward worldwide. So while Mr. Trump’s emphasis on business-friendly policies has helped turbocharge the American stock market, we are hardly alone in enjoying rising share prices. And let’s not forget that markets rose more during President Obama’s first 11 months in office (37 percent for the S.&.P. 500 versus 18 percent for Mr. Trump).

94

2009:

80

Number of countries

in recession

60

40

6

2018:

20

’80

’90

’00

’10

’18

’21

PROJECTIONS

2017 in three indicators

Global stock markets

+21%

U.S. stock market

+20%

Global corporate profits

+8%

94

2009:

80

Number of countries in recession

60

40

6

2018:

20

’80

’90

’00

’10

’18

’21

PROJECTIONS

2017 in three indicators

+21%

Global stock markets

+20%

U.S. stock market

+8%

Global corporate profits

Global markets and profits as of Dec. 26; U.S. stocks as of Dec. 27. Sources: Deutsche Bank; Bloomberg

What Trump Hasn’t Helped: American Jobs

What’s clear is that Mr. Trump deserves little or no credit for the continuing economic and job growth in the United States, despite his frequent claims to the contrary. On Sept. 19, he declared that “companies are moving back, creating job growth the likes of which our country has not seen in a very long time.” Not true. The rate of job increases has actually slowed since Mr. Trump was inaugurated, by about 44,000 jobs a month. As for Mr. Trump’s claim that the current 3.3 percent rate of growth in the gross domestic product “is the largest increase in many years,” that is false as well; President Obama achieved similar or higher increases in six quarters of his administration.

Job creation is down. And six quarters of G.D.P. growth under Obama exceeded Trump’s best quarter thus far, contrary to his claims.

Monthly job growth:

Obama’s last term vs. Trump’s first

300,000

Obama average: 214,000

200,000

Trump

average:

170,000

100,000

Feb. ’13

’14

’15

’16

’17

Nov.

Quarterly G.D.P. growth

+4.6%

+5.2%

+3.3%

4th qtr. 2011

3rd qtr. 2014

3rd qtr.

2017

+4%

+2

0

–2

Obama administration

Trump

–4

–6

–8

Last quarter of

Bush administration

Monthly job growth: Obama’s last term vs. Trump’s first

300,000

Obama average: 214,000

200,000

Trump

average:

170,000

100,000

Feb. ’13

’14

’15

’16

’17

Nov.

+5.2%

Quarterly G.D.P. growth

+4.6%

+3.3%

3rd qtr. 2014

4th qtr. 2011

3rd qtr.

2017

+4%

+2

0

–2

Obama administration

Trump

–4

–6

–8

Last quarter of

Bush administration

Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Bureau of Economic Analysis

Wages: Continued Stagnation for Millions

Donald Trump won election in large part by riding the wave of discontent among working-class Americans over their wages, which, after adjustment for inflation, have been largely stagnant or have even shrunk since the onset of the financial crisis and ensuing recession. (The brief period of seemingly rising wages in 2009 was a function of declining prices, not higher incomes.) In late 2014, as labor markets began to tighten, employers trying to hire were compelled to increase pay by more than inflation. But since Mr. Trump’s inauguration, this improvement has ebbed and real incomes again have been barely edging upward faster than prices.

Year-over-year percentage change in average hourly wages.

+5%

Aftermath

of recession

Trump

elected

+4

+3

+0.2%

+2

+1

0

–1

–2

Mar.

’07

’08

’09

’10

’11

’12

’13

’14

’15

’16

’17

+5%

+4

Trump elected

Aftermath

of recession

+3

+2

+0.2%

+1

0

–1

–2

Mar.

’07

’08

’09

’10

’11

’12

’13

’14

’15

’16

’17

Figures adjusted for inflation. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

A Needless Human Toll

While the Republicans failed in their frontal attack on the Affordable Care Act, they managed a flanking victory by wedging a provision into the new tax bill repealing the requirement that all Americans purchase or otherwise obtain health insurance. That requirement was a key component of Obamacare because it ensured that insurance companies had a supply of healthy customers along with those in greater need of medical care. As a consequence, according to Congressional Budget Office estimates, 13 million fewer Americans than previously projected will likely have coverage in 2025. To put that in perspective, before its disfiguration, the A.C.A. was projected to add 34 million to the insurance rolls by 2025. And the news gets worse: The new provision is expected to increase premiums quickly by 10 percent, a jump that will come on top of the premium increases resulting from the Trump administration’s cancellation of payments to reduce insurance costs.

In less than a decade, the repeal of Obamacare’s individual mandate is estimated to add 13 million more nonelderly Americans to the ranks of the uninsured — equivalent to the population of Pennsylvania.

Additional uninsured after repeal:

Uninsured,

in millions, before repeal of mandate

4

7

12

12

12

12

13

Total

uninsured,

2025:

28

30

31

31

44

million

’17

’18

’19

’20

’21

’22

’23

’24

’25

Additional uninsured after repeal:

Uninsured, in millions, before repeal of mandate:

Total

uninsured,

2025:

4

7

12

12

12

12

13

44

28

30

31

31

million

2017

’18

’19

’20

’21

’22

’23

’24

’25

Sources: Kaiser Family Foundation; Congressional Budget Office

More, and Whiter, Judges From Trump

While the new administration has struggled to advance its legislative priorities, it has (unfortunately) excelled at another of its responsibilities: appointing judges. While it has a poor record in filling executive branch positions, the Trump team has outshone the Obama administration in both putting forth candidates for the bench and getting them confirmed. The latter accomplishment got a big assist from a procedural change put in place by the Senate Democrats during Mr. Obama’s second term that reduced the number of votes required from 60 to a simple majority. Not surprisingly, Mr. Trump’s nominees are more likely to be white than those of any president since Ronald Reagan. He has also nominated a startling four candidates for the judiciary rated “unqualified” by the American Bar Association, and three of his nominees have already had to be withdrawn. Finally, Mr. Trump’s nominees to these lifetime positions are relatively young, effectively tilting the ideological balance of the federal courts for decades to come.

First-year nominations for two presidents, and race and gender of nominees for the last seven presidents.

Supreme Court

CONFIRMED

District

courts

Circuit

courts

PENDING

Obama

1

3

9

9

11

Trump

1

12

7

6

43

White nominees as percent of total

Reagan

94%

Trump

91

Bush I

89

Bush II

83

Carter

79

Clinton

75

Obama

64

Male nominees

Reagan

92%

Carter

84

Bush I

81

Trump

81

Bush II

78

Clinton

71

Obama

58

Supreme

Court

Circuit

courts

District

courts

Obama

1

3

9

9

11

CONFIRMED

PENDING

CONFIRMED

PENDING

Trump

1

12

7

6

43

CONFIRMED

PENDING

CONFIRMED

PENDING

White nominees as percent of total

Male nominees

Reagan

94%

Reagan

92%

91

Carter

84

Trump

Bush I

89

Bush I

81

Bush II

83

Trump

81

Carter

79

Bush II

78

75

Clinton

Clinton

71

Obama

64

Obama

58

Supreme

Court

Circuit

courts

District

courts

Obama

1

3

9

9

11

CONFIRMED

PENDING

CONFIRMED

PENDING

Trump

1

12

7

6

43

CONFIRMED

PENDING

CONFIRMED

PENDING

White nominees as percent of total

Male nominees

Reagan

94%

Reagan

92%

91

Carter

84

Trump

Bush I

89

Bush I

81

Bush II

83

Trump

81

Carter

79

Bush II

78

75

Clinton

Clinton

71

Obama

64

Obama

58

Trump nominee demographics as of Nov. 13; other presidents for their full terms. Sources: The White House and the Senate Judiciary Committee (Obama vs. Trump); analysis by The Associated Press (demographics)

Steven Rattner, who was a counselor in the Obama Treasury Department, is a Wall Street executive and a contributing opinion writer. For latest updates and posts, please visit stevenrattner.com and follow me on Twitter (@SteveRattner) and Facebook. Research by Sundas Hashmi.