4 posts from January 2009

January 27, 2009

So far, the winter storm has produced the amount of precipitation expected... However, the type (meaning freezing rain and the duration it is expected to last) was a little off in my forecast. I did expect freezing rain to the south of Louisville... but it looks like not only will we see a little freezing rain in Louisville, but some places will see a lot. A devastating ice storm is in progress across the area and the determining factor as to who sees the worst will depend on the surface temperature. I would expect that temperatures will hold or rise to near 30 degrees this evening and should not fall a whole lot tonight. However... just north of the city... in southern Indiana temperatures will hold in the mid to even lower 20s in some places and this is where the serious icing will occur. I would expect the ice to bring down trees & power lines in many places along and 15 miles on either side of a line from Jasper - Salem - Scottsburg.

I was out this morning, with photographer Rick Miller, reporting on WAVE 3 Sunrise when the transition from sleet to freezing rain occured. I was amazed at how many spin-outs we saw in front of us. We were near Grade Lane above northbound Interstate 65. Slow down!

Here is a picture of what the roads looked like this morning. I'm sure many of the side streets are still covered and will remain slick & hazardous.

At the airport... UPS de-iced the planes and went along with business as usual. There have been a few delays from the Louisville International Airport. I would think the impact on air travel would be minimal, but delays would be possible!

January 26, 2009

Housekeeping First:LIVE BLOG today at 2:00 PM. Remember this is a blog, not a chatroom. Comments are approved and then uploaded to the blog... not every question can get answered. Please enter the room with a question or two and we'll do our best to answer as many as possible.

Watches & Warnings... Oh My: WINTER STORM WARNING (pink), ICE STORM WARNING (purple) & WINTER STORM WATCH (blue). You can see by the warnings that we're, again, going to be on the edge. Some people will see more ice and other will see all snow. The Winter Storm WARNING & Ice Storm WARNING go into effect at 10 PM Monday night and last untuil 1 AM Wednesday morning.

Let The Games Begin: The HPC has the Day 1 & Day 2 probabilites of 4"+ & 8"+ snowfall maps. You can see that these two maps are for Day 1. They have a slight chance for and 8"+ total right along the Ohio River into the Louisville area. The second map is Day for 4"+ and you can see the odds are much higher along and north of the Ohio River.

These two maps are for Day 2. You can see the moisture increase with the greatest potential for snow across southern Indiana. There is a 40% chance for 8"+ inches... and that increase to a 70% chance for 4"+ along and north of the Ohio River.

Painting A Clearer Picture: Here are the NAM & GFS model runs... and the forecast becomes a little clearer as to what will occur with out impending storm. These are the 7AM run for Tuesday morning. You can see the moisture is over the area... with temperatures warming to critical levels south, but staying cold for snow north.

While I feel there will be a chance for significant icing to the south of Lousiville... the reason my total snow forecast for Louisville is 3"-5" is because I think the snow will mix with some sleet during the early afternoon. Higher totals up to 8" to 10" of snow will be possible in Southern Indiana. Some areas south may transition to plain rain.

The bulk of the precip will be moving out early Wednesday, but as the cold air gets pulled back into the system on the backside the transition will be back to all snow across the area. These maps are for the 7AM hour Wednesday morning. Additional accumulation of snow will be possible if the system slows down.

When all is said and done, the rush hour Tuesday and early Wednesday will be tricky. You can see the variance in the precipitation type in the models above. A slight shift in the track of 25 miles will make a BIG difference as to the type of precipitation any one location receives. Sleet & freezing rain will bring snow totals down drastically. It's a tricky forecast... and it will be interesting to see where the boundaries move during the day tomorrow.

I'm Going To Think Warm: The snow lovers will hopefully have their day tomorrow & Wednesday. Some would rather be sitting on a beach somewhere with temperatures in the 80s!

Closed: I would imagine that many schools will be closed Tuesday & Wednesday... perhaps Thursday & Friday too. Stay tuned to WAVE 3 & WAVE3.COM for the latest.

January 05, 2009

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (Midnight - 11AM Tuesday)It's going to be a cold rainy day tomorrow. Rain will overspread the the area overnight. Temperatures at 500 & 750 hPa will be warm and this combined with temperatures at or just below freezing at the surface will set the stage for some freezing rain. Essentially, freezing rain is rain that falls as a liquid drop and upon reaching the surface comes in contact with an object that is below freezing and creates a glaze of ice. This is a dangerous weather phenomena... since it can easily trick us to thinking its just plain rain. Be careful and keep a close eye on the temperature.

In any case, any problems that may result will be alleviated by rising temperatures Tuesday morning. Rain will fall off and on all day Tuesday and temperatures will be chilly in the upper 30s to near 40 degrees.

This situation will be different than the last... you may recall we had temperatures just above freezing at 33 & 34 degrees but still had some icing problems with freezing rain. This was because the previous night temperatures dropped to the coldest of the season (5 degrees). The ground was so cold that once the rain drop hit... it froze. This time around the ground is nt that cold and recovering to a temperature above freezing will not take as long.

January 03, 2009

It's 8:30 raining in Bardstown. After some heavy rains a couple goes ago it's back to light rain & drizzle. There will be another chance for rain and/or snow late Monday & Tuesday... And a better chance for snow later in the week. Snow lovers hang in there the winter is not over!