Vaughn Palmer: 10 great fights shaping up for May 14

Friday, February 1, 2013

By vaughn palmer, Vancouver Sun columnist

Premier Christy Clark will be going up against NDP candidate David Eby in Vancouver-Point Grey, the ultimate swing seat in this spring’s provincial election. Clark finished only slightly ahead of Eby in a May 2011 byelection for the seat formerly held by Gordon Campbell.

Photographed by:DARRYL DYCK, THE CANADIAN PRESS

A three-point gain in four months is not much cause for celebration when the election is just 14 weeks away.

Still, the Liberals liked the Mustel numbers better than the most recent index of party preferences by the Angus Reid group, which put the gap at 15 points. Either way, that is a lot of ground to make up in the time remaining — just 100 days as of Sunday.

But the polling snapshots only suggest the possible outcome in the provincewide popular vote. Elections are decided in the seat count, which bears only a passing (and sometimes perverse) relationship to the overall tally of ballots cast.

With campaigns firing up around the province, those of us who follow the election are already assembling lists of swing seats and other ridings that could be interesting for one reason or another. Herewith, the first 10 on my watch list:

Vancouver-Point Grey. The ultimate swing seat in this election. Premier Christy Clark eked out a narrow win in the May 2011 byelection for Gordon Campbell’s old seat, finishing slightly behind New Democrat David Eby in the votes cast on election day, topping him only on the strength of a superior count from the advance poll. The two are scheduled to meet again May 14 this year. If the seat changes hands, probably so will the government.

Oak Bay-Gordon Head. The Greens, in an inspired move, are fielding Andrew Weaver, the internationally respected University of Victoria academic and climatologist in the seat now held by cabinet minister Ida Chong. But fed-up Liberals could get behind Weaver as a keep-them-honest check on an anticipated NDP government, giving the Greens their first presence in the provincial legislature.

Langley. For the Liberals, Transportation Minister Mary Polak; for the Conservatives, party leader John Cummins. The two were once allies in right-of-centre politics, including Belinda Stronach’s failed bid for the national Conservative leadership against Stephen Harper. Now they are squaring off, in what might be called the battle of the vote splitters. If Cummins wins, it would give the Conservatives their first elected presence in the legislature in 35 years.

Vancouver-Fairview. Health Minister Margaret MacDiarmid versus George Heyman, the longtime public sector union leader and environmentalist. With the Liberal vote slumping, Heyman may well have already won the main event in the riding, when he defeated Vision Vancouver councillor (and Adrian Dix ally) Geoff Meggs for the NDP nomination. The seat will be watched closely because Heyman would be a key presence in an NDP government.

Kootenay East. Bill Bennett, the ever-scrappy three-term incumbent, has made a habit of confounding predictions of his imminent demise. Last time out, he beat back a double threat from the NDP and the then-leader of the Conservatives, Wilf Hanni, rounding up just over 50 per cent of the vote in the process. This time will be even tougher.

Chilliwack-Hope. New Democrat Gwen O’Mahony last spring gave her party its first seat in Chilliwack, winning a three-way byelection fight against the Liberals and Conservatives with 42 per cent of the vote. The Conservative candidate, John Martin, subsequently crossed to the Liberals, and is running for the governing party in the other Chilliwack riding. If enough of his supporters return to the Liberal fold as well, O’Mahony might be in trouble.

Prince George-Valemount. Justice Minister and Attorney General Shirley Bond won this seat with the smallest margin of the three seats captured by the Liberals in B.C.’s northern capital. But Prince George, like other Interior communities, tends to switch sides when the government switches sides. Bond is seeking a fourth term, but isn’t likely to win one unless her party also turns things around provincially.

Cariboo North. After Bob Simpson left the NDP over Carole James’ leadership in the fall of 2010, he was expected to be reduced to footnote status on the provincial scene. Instead he’s established himself as an authoritative presence on a number of issues. Election day will determine whether that is enough to persuade his riding, which leans NDP, to give him another term as an independent.

Vernon-Monashee. New Democratic Party leader Adrian Dix has been pushing hard to end the Liberal shut-out of his party in the seven seats in the Okanagan. One of his better bets is Vernon, now represented by Eric Foster, hamfisted head of the legislature committee that tried to dump Auditor General John Doyle. The upstart Conservatives see the seat as one of their better bets as well, pointing to the likelihood of a three-way vote split.

Kamloops-North Thompson. Environment Minister Terry Lake won the riding by a mere 500 votes last time, so it would not take much of a swing to deliver it to the NDP. Kamloops is a legendary bellwether, having gone with the winning party in each of the 30 general elections since the party system was introduced a century ago.

Not an exhaustive list, obviously. There are still candidates to be named, regional trends to be identified, key issues to be defined. Plus as it says on the pill bottles, actual results may vary from predicted outcomes.