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Re: Juan Francisco

Originally Posted by BRM

Yeah, because most posters on this board love hitters with low OBP's.

The difference is, it would show that he had some semblance of reaching first base without it being via a hit. Guys who only reach base via the hit either suck, or strike out about 8% of the time they step to the plate and hit .300. Francisco isn't going to strike out that little, so he isn't going to hit .300, so he has to start walking more.

Re: Juan Francisco

I see Fransisco and just think "LH Marcus Thames". They're even built the same way. I think Fransisco will have a decent major league career, in that he'll be in the league for a while, but his best case scenario is Ruben Sierra.

Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

Re: Juan Francisco

I find it very strange that a guy hitting .369/.423/.669 over his last 3 months would need to straighten anything out. The man can hit. Seriously hit. He's done it consistently over many levels. The perceived problem with lack of walks is all about putting him in a mold that he just doesn't fit.

Re: Juan Francisco

Originally Posted by GOYA

I find it very strange that a guy hitting .369/.423/.669 over his last 3 months would need to straighten anything out. The man can hit. Seriously hit. He's done it consistently over many levels. The perceived problem with lack of walks is all about putting him in a mold that he just doesn't fit.

And most importantly, he still seems to be improving.

Because guys who post similar K/BB rates as him have never had a stretch of 3 seasons as above average hitters in the major leagues without improving their K/BB rates.... It isn't about a lack of walks, its about the lack of discipline. Guys with low walk rates can succeed, but they must offset it with not striking out at even average rates (15-17%).

I have shown the math before, he must improve somewhere in order to get to the point where he would be a reliable hitter in the majors. As his rates stand right now, he could hit 30 doubles, 2 triples and 30 HR's and still only post an OBP of .310-.320 with a BABIP in the .300-.310 range. The power would be nice of course, as that would also mean a .515 SLG. With such a low margin for error in the OBP department, it is incredibly concerning that as he steps to the majors his walks go down a little and his strikeouts go up a little. If that happens, he profiles to be a sub .300 OBP guy. Guys like that don't start, especially when they are poor defensively.

Re: Juan Francisco

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Because guys who post similar K/BB rates as him have never had a stretch of 3 seasons as above average hitters in the major leagues without improving their K/BB rates.... It isn't about a lack of walks, its about the lack of discipline. Guys with low walk rates can succeed, but they must offset it with not striking out at even average rates (15-17%).

I have shown the math before, he must improve somewhere in order to get to the point where he would be a reliable hitter in the majors. As his rates stand right now, he could hit 30 doubles, 2 triples and 30 HR's and still only post an OBP of .310-.320 with a BABIP in the .300-.310 range. The power would be nice of course, as that would also mean a .515 SLG. With such a low margin for error in the OBP department, it is incredibly concerning that as he steps to the majors his walks go down a little and his strikeouts go up a little. If that happens, he profiles to be a sub .300 OBP guy. Guys like that don't start, especially when they are poor defensively.

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