World

Disunited Kingdom: The Clash Over Scotland's Independence

Yes campaign supporters are seen as Prime Minister David Cameron prepares to address business people at the CBI dinner on August 28, 2014 in Glasgow, Scotland.

Image: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images

By Paul Mason2014-09-04 08:30:53 UTC

GLASGOW, Scotland — Forget tartan.

On the dance floor of the Sub Club, a world famous nightclub in Glasgow, Scotland, they dress like twenty-somethings in any cool, urban setting: hipster jeans, beards and, for the women, as little as possible.

In two weeks, Scots get to vote in a referendum with a stark, binary choice: vote 'Yes' and in two years time Scotland becomes a separate country. Vote 'No' and… well, the struggle for independence goes on, with probably a major shift of powers from London.

In the Yes camp are: the party that runs Scotland’s government under devolution, the Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP), plus much of the green and progressive left. In the No camp are all three of Britain’s main parliamentary parties – Labour, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats. Demographically, it’s the older people voting No and 18-30s like the clubbers on the dance floor with a strong tendency towards Yes.

Because Scotland is traditionally a strong Labour-voting area, and Labour was fronting the No campaign, until last week the No camp was ahead by a margin of nine percentage points in the polls.

Yes campaign supporters are seen as Prime Minister David Cameron prepares to address business people at the CBI dinner on August 28, 2014 in Glasgow, Scotland.

Image: Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images

But, amid massive street-level campaigning involving tens of thousands of people, the gap has narrowed. And there are massive unknown variables. If, as expected, the turnout reaches way above the 50% common in British elections, then what pollsters call the “missing million” –- young people and poor people normally turned off from politics –- could swing it for independence.

The implications would be massive both politically and economically. Scotland first joined with England in Shakespeare’s time (1603) becoming a single country 100 years later. But its legal system and culture were always different. Under devolution, it has resisted some of the privatization moves pushed by both Labour and Conservative governments –- in health and education — so it has the feel of a leftist Scandinavian country.

And it has oil. Most of Britain’s remaining oil and gas fields are in the sea north-east of Scotland. Though they will quibble over the details, the London government has already agreed that Scotland will keep most of the oil. In return, it has to shoulder its share of the massive government debts Britain has run up since the financial crisis of 2008.

If Scotland went independent, the Yes camp are promising it will boost oil revenues by encouraging investment, boost the welfare state, cut tax for businesses.

But economists see big problems. In the long term, the oil will run out, and in the short term, London says that Scotland won't be allowed to use the British pound as its currency which would leave Scotland’s large indebted banks suddenly marooned in a country with no central bank –- a prospect that definitely worries investors. On Tuesday, the Pound Sterling fell after the latest poll showed the Yes camp within three percentage points of victory.

The vote, however, is also about about geo-politics. When Britain had an empire, troops clad in Scottish tartan were indispensable in quelling its subjects. So it must have seemed a no-brainer to station the entire British nuclear deterrent in submarine bases in Western Scotland.

The SNP has said it will scrap the nuclear weapons, if there’s a Yes vote, and Britain will have to find a new place for its nuclear-armed submarines. Meanwhile it will lose a chunk of its armed forces –- and the Yes camp are clear they don’t want Scotland to be the kind of country that invades Iraq and Afghanistan.

A statue of former British Prime Minster Winston Churchill faces the Houses of Parliament.

Image: Oli Scarff/Getty Images

Shrunken to England and Wales, and a Northern Irish province whose people have split loyalties between the UK and Ireland, the whole concept of “Great Britain” will be over.

Because they thought the No vote was a foregone conclusion, very few Brits south of the Scottish border –- and almost nobody in government or the financial markets -– have made contingency plans for a Yes victory.

So what’s moved the situation on? First, the independence swing is not driven by any rise in nationalism: it’s strongest among young people who, while they feel “Scottish,” are often scornful of the kitschy symbols –- tartan, hunting lodges, golf trousers, whiskey etc –- that is Scotland’s brand to the world.

When I met a bunch of Scottish club-goers last week, they were very clear that their Yes vote was motivated by an inability otherwise to make their relatively left, progressive votes count in a national parliament in Westminster dominated by centre-right parties.

And students like the fact that in Scotland they pay zero tuition fees (the Scottish government pays), while their English counterparts are paying £9,000 (about $15,000) a year.

For them, the traditional political loyalties to the Labour party have been eroded by years of seeing it fail to deliver, and by the scars of Britain’s wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, which Labour started. In addition, they’re seeing the English consensus on Europe fall apart. In general, the Scottish nationalists want to be a small country that is part of the European Union.

Many Brits in England, however, are sick of the EU –- over issues like migration, tough human rights legislation that has prevented some criminals being deported, the failing Eurozone and its unaccountable bureaucracy.

The Conservatives, who run the current coalition government in Westminster, have promised a British referendum on EU membership by 2017. In May, a hard-right anti-Euro party, UKIP, scored 27% in British elections to the Euro parliament. The pressure is on the English centre-right to get out of Europe and many Scots are now saying the best way for them to stay in Europe is to get out of the United Kingdom.

Dogs Asbo (L), wearing a union flag and Millie, wearing a Scottish flag are pictured at the 150th Birnam Highland Games in Perthshire, Scotland, on August 30, 2014.

If you’re wondering “why didn’t I know all this?” –- don’t worry. Brits themselves are still catching up to this particular political dynamic. “Official” Britain –- at war memorial ceremonies and Royal weddings –- sees Scotland as at the heart of an untroubled union. The Queen and her family regularly pose in tartan, and shoot grouse on the Scottish land they own.

But unofficial Britain is already split into separate identities: rich, multi-ethnic London and its suburbs, a poverty-stricken rust belt in north England and Wales, Northern Ireland still paralyzed by the aftermath of sectarian armed warfare that raged for 25 years… and Scotland, which increasingly feels confident, relaxed and separate.

Right now, the British media, civil service and financial markets are waking up to the possibility of a narrow win for the Yes camp. There’s been no contingency planning because a Yes vote was unthinkable.

Could Scotland make it as a separate country? It will be tough. Set against the oil wealth, the destabilizing effect of trying to keep the pound, and pay for a welfare state the rest of Britain says it can’t afford, will create big economic risks.

But on the dance floor at the club, the twenty-somethings understand those risks. Though political discussions can get rambling and effusive at 2 am amid the dance beats, the general gist of the conversations are clear. “We just want to run our own country,” is the short summary.

The Sub Club in Glasgow, Scotland.

Image: Sub Club

A guide to the complicated borders of the United Kingdom:

The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland - the UK as an official country in the world, its borders drawn in 1927 to include the Northern corner of Ireland after the rest of Ireland became independent.

Great Britain: England Scotland and Wales. Both Scotland and Wales have devolved governments. Scotland has more powers and has used them to run its own health, legal system and education system.

Scotland: a separate medieval kingdom until 1603 when its king (James) became also king of England. In 1707 they formed a single kingdom. In 1997 it was given a parliament with limited powers. Its unofficial anthem, played at international sports matches, is Flower of Scotland. Population: 5.3 million people - GDP $243bn if you include the oil - about the same size as Greece.

Paul Mason is Economics Editor at Channel 4 News in London. Follow him on Twitter at @PaulMasonNews.

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