"Dedicated To Understanding New England's Climate!"
The purpose of this site is to educate and inform the public of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO); by examining current trends & indice forecasts that will impact the New England NE Region. We will also focus on the parent-steering mechanism known as the Arctic Oscillation (AO); and other teleconnection indices.

Friday, March 16, 2012

MARCH 11-18, 2012 - WHERE IS THE NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION HEADED?

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is currently weakly Positive. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the NAO will be moderately Positive March 18-21.The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates the NAO will be weakly Positive to neutral March 22-25. The GEFS later indicates that the NAO will be very weakly Negative March 26-30.

NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern. TheNAO -Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC)iscurrently weakly Positive. The Operational GFS Indice Forecast indicates that the NAO will be moderately Positive March 18-21.The Operational Indice Forecast indicates the NAO will be weakly Positive to neutral March 22-25. The GFS later indicates that the NAO will be very weakly Negative March 26-30. NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.

The Arctic Oscillation (AO)GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently moderately Positive. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the AO will be moderately Positive March 18-21.The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates the AO will be weakly Positive to neutral March 22-25. The GEFS later indicates that the AO will be weakly Negative March 26-30. NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern. TheAO -Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currently moderately Positive. The Operational GFS Indice Forecast indicates that the AO will be moderately Positive March 18-21.The Operational Indice Forecast indicates the AO will be weakly Positive to neutral March 22-25. The GFS later indicates that the AO will be very weakly Negative March 26-30. NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.

The Pacific-North American Oscillation (PNA)GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currentlyweakly Negative. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the PNA will be very weakly Negative March 18-21.The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates the PNA will be very weakly Negative to neutral March 22-25. The GEFS later indicates that the PNA will be increasingly Positive March 26-30. NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern. The PNA -Operational GFS Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currentlyweakly Negative. The Operational GFS Indice Forecast indicates that the PNA will be very weakly Negative March 18-21.The Operational Indice Forecast indicates the PNA will be very weakly Negative to neutral March 22-25. The GFS later indicates that the PNA will be increasingly Positive March 26-30. NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.

The Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO)GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory (Physical Sciences Division) and NCEP, is currentlystrongly Positive. The GFS (MRF) Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the EPO will be moderately Positive.. trending weakly Positive March 18-20. This indice forecast then indicates that the EPO will be neutral to very weakly Negative March 21-25. The EPO later trends weakly Positive March 26-30. The Western Pacific Oscillation (WPO)GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from NOAA's ESRL/PSD and NCEP, is currentlyweakly Positive. The GFS (MRF) Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the WPO will be weakly Positive March 18-20. This indice forecast then indicates that the WPO will be neutral to very weakly Negative March 21-25. The WPO later trends weakly Positive March 26-30.

The Antarctic Oscillation (AAO)GFS (MRF) - Ensemble Indice Forecast from (CPC) is currentlyweakly Positive. The GFS Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates that the AAO will be weakly to moderately Positive March 18-21.The Ensemble Indice Forecast indicates the AAO will be weakly Positive to neutral March 22-25. The GEFS later indicates that the AAO will be weakly Negative March 26-30. NOTE: Indice Forecasts have been "modified," due to Forecaster's understanding of the "Current" Longwave pattern.

Indice Forecasts are forExtended & Long Range trends only, and are not meant to be taken verbatim. Please consult NWS Albany, N. Y. / NWS Taunton, or the NWSFO covering your region... for official short-term regional zone forecasts.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK: As the tropical intraseasonal oscillation, Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave progresses through phase 5... a strong Pacific & subtropical jet-stream - in association with a strong +EPO pattern - will be the dominant feature. In-reaction, an intense subtropical ridge in association with an unseasonably strong warm front will push northeast over eastern North America... as the +AO & +NAO influence peak. This pattern will encourage a classic Bermuda High (blow-torch)to become established off the Eastern Seaboard... as a strong south to southwest flow - at all levels of the atmosphere - fosters well Above normal temperatures in New England March 18-21. Keep in-mind that the average high temperatures throughout New England for March 18-21 would be around 40°F - 49°F... meaning this period will potentially average around +30°F Above normal!

LONG RANGE THOUGHTS: The current MJO wave will continue to progress through phase 6... and enter phase 7, March 22-24. This will promote a brief re-establishment of the NegativeEPO Ridge over the east-central Pacific... which will encourage the AO & NAO to briefly fall Negative around March 25-30. There is a heightened potential of below normal temperatures in association with Miller Type B coastal redevelopment during this period... dependent on the timing & interaction of elements, before a gradual moderation March 31 to April 2. Of note, research has shown that the initial effects of a solar maximum are first observed at the equator... then expand north & south in-latitude. This is important to consider due to a highly active MJO influence (over the equatorial Pacific) for much of the Northern Hemisphere's cold season, which could be connected to the current observed solar maximum... in association to the 9-11 year Schwabe Cycle. The overall state of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is also effected by this factor, as Pacific sea surface temperatures rise... with the establishment of weak El Nino conditions (as we enter the Northern Hemisphere's warm season).

New England & the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)

New England NAO

As this Blog continues to grow it will be a learning experience for me, and a possible valuable source of information to the overall general public in New England. Posts prepared by me are region specific, pretaining to upcoming meteorological changes in New England. Other posts are general weather related content and from various authors.

Special thanks to John Hockridge of

New England Weather Associates &

George Trottier formerly of WMNB-WNAW

N. Adams, MA., for help making this site possible.

I would also like to express my sincere appreciation to Todd Gross of www.toddgross.com(former Chief Meteorologist of WHDH - Channel 7 Boston), for including me in his "Weather Spotter Network" - which served as a foundation for this site.

New England NAO - is dedicated in loving memory of my cousin... Peter Rowley, who recognized my true purpose in-life and was taken from us so soon.

Disclaimer

This website is for educational and informational purposes, and is NOT associated in any way to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) · National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) · or National Weather Service (NWS). Use of CPC Teleconnections (Indice Forecasts) & graphics is made available as an informative guide only, and has NOT been altered in any way. Links provided to the CPC, NCEP, & NWS are for additional informational purposes. For exclusive weather forecasts... please visit

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