I'll get to the Week 11 recap, the rant about the Panthers-Lions game and the Vegas stuff starting with the Sunday games. I'd like to bring up an article I wrote last year.

Some may argue that it's tradition, and it shouldn't be messed with. What tradition? Here was my tradition before this Web site became my full-time job: I went out Wednesday night, the so-called "biggest drinking night of the year." Came home completely drunk. Passed out around 3 a.m. Woke up just in time for kickoff. Vomited multiple times all over myself because I was way too hung over to make it to the toilet. Watched the Lions get completely debacled. Barfed some more so I had room to eat turkey later.

Detroit has lost its previous Thanksgiving games by the scores of: 45-24, 34-12, 47-10, 37-26, 27-10, 27-7, 41-9 and 41-10. That's an average margin of 23.9 points!

Some say Roger Goodell should do something about this. Some argue that until the Lions can field a competitive team, they shouldn't be allowed to embarrass the league every year.

But ever since they fired Matt Millen, the Lions have made all the right moves. They drafted a franchise quarterback and gave him the weapons to be successful. They obtained outstanding pass-rushers. Yet, no matter what they do, they just can't seem to catch a break; whether it's watching Matthew Stafford get hurt every time he plays, or losing on ridiculous calls like that Calvin Johnson non-touchdown in Week 1.

The Lions are cursed. It doesn't appear as though they'll ever win. The one thing they have though is this Thanksgiving game. That shouldn't be taken away from them - or the fans just may all kill themselves.

See? It's a good thing the NFL didn't strip the Lions of their Thanksgiving game. Otherwise, there wouldn't be anyone left to cheer on this 7-3 team.

Anyway, it's the usual - my NFL Picks will be posted periodically throughout Tuesday afternoon and evening. You can follow me on Twitter @walterfootball to receive updates for when I post each selection.

DETROIT OFFENSE: I was pretty anti-Lions last week because they were one-dimensional on offense with Matthew Stafford nursing a fractured finger. Things went according to plan when Stafford tossed those two picks in the first quarter, but he must have received some magic fairy dust from the gambling gods because he was extremely precise after that.

Of course, it helped that Kevin Smith established himself as a potent play-maker out of the backfield. Smith is really talented, so it can't come as a complete surprise. The only question I have is, where was Smith the past few weeks when Jahvid Best was out of the lineup? Why wait a month to unleash a player who single-handedly cost me $770?

Green Bay's defense has its issues. After a solid Monday night performance, the unit really struggled to contain Josh Freeman and LeGarrette Blount. The Lions should be able to move the chains consistently and put points on the board.

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Of course, the Packers will be able to do the same thing. As I keep writing, the only thing that can stop this offense is careless mistakes.

Injuries don't help either, obviously. Greg Jennings and Jermichael Finley were both gimpy in that Tampa contest, but they're both practicing this week. They should be fine, and they'll wreak havoc upon a secondary that couldn't stop Cam Newton in the first half of last week's game. And unlike Newton, Rodgers won't throw dumb interceptions.

The Lions will need to get to Rodgers without blitzing to force at least a couple of punts. Green Bay's offensive line has been shaky recently and we all know how dominant Ndamukong Suh and company can be, so that's definitely a possibility.

RECAP: A week ago, I would have gone big on the Packers. I can't do that in the wake of Kevin Smith emerging as a potent option out of the backfield. Stafford's finger also doesn't appear to be an issue anymore.

I'd still side with Green Bay though. The Lions can't win at home on Thanksgiving, and I feel like there's too much pressure on them to snap that losing streak. Plus, after a pedestrian performance overall, I expect the Packers to rebound with a sound game.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
A huge game for both teams.

The Vegas. Edge: Lions.
Heavy early action on the Packers, but it's evened out.

1. Last year's game between Detroit and New England was such a massacre that I did online shopping during the second half. I initially planned on buying stuff for my family, but then I realized that getting gifts for myself would be a lot more fun.

I found a deal on BestBuy.com for a PS3 and two games for $200 or $250 (can't remember). It seemed like great value, so I made the purchase.

Twelve months later, there's still an unopened PS3 box in my basement. Meh, I'll get around to trying out my new PS3 one of these years.

2. Who would have thought that the Dallas Thanksgiving game would be the worst one of the three going into the season? The Lions and 49ers have been terrible for years, so when the schedule was released, most people probably looked at the Thanksgiving slate and thought, "Well, Dallas-Miami might not be so bad."

3. As I wrote last year, I can no longer get drunk out of my mind and blow 0.5s the night before Thanksgiving because I have to take my full-time job (this site) seriously. So, I can't have fun the night before Thanksgiving. That said, Thanksgiving is still my favorite holiday in the world. What other holiday allows you to stuff your face with food, watch nine hours of football and pass out like a fat slob?

And the best part is, because this is my job, I can get out of doing work around the house in the future when I have a family. Ha! Take that, future wife and kids! Go clean and make food! Walt's gotta work!

4. Unfortunately, I am missing out on some fun times. For example, I received the following text last year from one of my female friends late Friday night/early Saturday morning:

My pole dancing night must come to a close. I hope I find my panties.

I would have volunteered to help the search, but I didn't get the text until the following morning because I already passed out. Son of a b****.

5. The only crappy part about Thanksgiving is watching the late game with one of my uncles. I think eating turkey turns him into a douche, because it's the same type of exchange every year:

Uncle: Which team did you bet on?

Me: I bet on Team A. Three units.

Uncle: Go Team B! Go Team B!

Hmm... maybe he's one of the hate-mailers. I'll get to them later.

DALLAS OFFENSE: I had an argument with Facebook friend David P. about Tony Romo's performance last week. David criticized me for saying Tim Tebow was great and that Romo struggled. Romo posted better numbers than Tebow and was able to engineer a game-winning drive in overtime, but the quality of opponent has to be taken into account. Romo missed numerous open receivers against a defense ranked 23rd against the pass, while Tebow beat a team that's 10th in that department. And let's not forget that Tebow's top wideout, Eric Decker, would be behind Dez Bryant, Jason Witten and Laurent Robinson in Dallas' pecking order.

The point is that Romo had a pretty shaky performance last week after playing brilliantly against the Bills. I was disappointed to see him regress.

Romo will have a chance to redeem himself against the Dolphins, who have been absolutely dominant on defense the past few weeks, limiting opposing quarterbacks to a 6.2 YPA, which would be good for third in the NFL.

Establishing DeMarco Murray will also be difficult, given that Miami hasn't surrendered more than 78 rushing yards to an opponent since Week 7.

MIAMI OFFENSE: Remember the good ole times when Matt Moore sucked and the Dolphins were in prime position to land Andrew Luck? Ah, memories.

I don't know how Moore has done it, but he's really emerged as a solid quarterback. He's going to give Dallas' secondary fits, as the Cowboys struggled to stop Rex Grossman, Jabar Gaffney and Donte' Stallworth last week.

The Dolphins could also have some success on the ground despite the mediocre talents in their backfield. The Cowboys have yielded an average of 128.3 rushing yards to their previous four opponents, though they were able to shut down the crappy trio of Roy Helu, Tashard Choice and Ryan Torain on Sunday.

RECAP: I've made it sound as if I like the Dolphins. Under normal circumstances, I'd definitely take the points.

However, these are not normal circumstances. The Cowboys don't lose on Thanksgiving. Excluding last year because Romo was out, Dallas has won its previous five Thursday contests by 28, 31, 10, 25 and 17. The rule with Thursday games is that you always take the home team if they're good because traveling on three days rest is too difficult. The Cowboys definitely qualify as good.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
The Cowboys always get up for these Thanksgiving games, so there won't be a letdown.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Dallas: 59% (26,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Cowboys.

Dolphins are 11-2 ATS on the road vs. teams with a winning record since 2007.

Tony Sparano is 20-9 ATS on the road.

Dolphins are 5-9 ATS vs. NFC teams under Tony Sparano.

Turkey Tyrants: Cowboys are 8-2 ATS as a Thanksgiving host since 2001.

Tony Romo is 7-14 ATS as a favorite of -7 or more excluding Thanksgiving (4-0 on Thanksgiving).

Reminiscing about last year's Thanksgiving game made me remember how brutal the announcing was. Remember Bob Papa, Joe Theismann and Matt Millen? Ugh, seriously, why did the NFL Network think that grouping these guys together was a good idea? Whoever made that call doesn't deserve to be doing anything more than turning tricks on the corner - tricks with kielbasa, that is.

Here was my preview of last year's Thanksgiving night game:

Bob Papa: Mark Santiago throws a pass, and it's caught by Braylon Anderson for a Cincinnati first down! Now that's what you call an incomplete reception!

Matt Millen: You see that play? I want you to watch this. Braylon Edwards was able to catch the football because the ball sailed right into his hands and it didn't drop to the ground. That's what an NFL reception looks like.

Joe Theismann: You want to see what a fat color commentator looks like? Let's get the camera to pan to Matt. He's incredibly big. Hey Matt, how many turkeys did you eat today? Five? Ten?

Bob Papa: Shonn Granger with the carry, takes it down to midfield. Tackle by Ray Lewis of the Cincinnati Reds.

Matt Millen: I want you to look at the sidelines. See that guy on the Bengals sideline right there? That's Terrell Owens. Nicest guy I've ever met. Anyone who thinks Terrell Owens causes problems in the locker room really doesn't know what they're talking about. I would trade five first-round picks to have Owens on my team.

All I can say is, thank God that Brad Nessler and Mike Mayock are doing the games now. No post-Thanksgiving-feast vomit this year!

BALTIMORE OFFENSE: It's so difficult to handicap Baltimore's offense because Joe Flacco is so damn inconsistent. Even last week, he went from fumbling handoffs, to completing deep bombs, to throwing an ugly pick, to connecting on more long passes.

Flacco does seem to step up against top-level competition though, as we've seen in the two Pittsburgh contests this year. And I'd say the 49ers qualify as top-level competition. They're second against the run (3.4 YPC), eighth versus the pass (6.7 YPA) and 13th in sacks (25).

Despite the former ranking, Cam Cameron needs to keep feeding the ball to Ray Rice. Cameron can be an idiot sometimes with his play-calling (OK, most of the time), so the Ravens can't afford to walk away from this contest with Rice rushing the ball 8-12 times. He needs 25 touches at the bare minimum.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: You can't really say enough about how well Alex Smith has played this year. He's maintained a YPA of 7.0 in all but three games this year, and his 13:4 touchdown-to-interception ratio is among the league's best.

Having said that, the level of competition needs to be looked at. Smith has played three teams currently ranked in the top 12 in aerial defense (Lions, Browns, Seahawks). In those contests, Smith is a collective 47-of-76 for 446 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Not terrible numbers, by any means, but the YPA of 5.9 is pretty discouraging.

Baltimore is also in the top 12. However, they definitely don't belong there without Ray Lewis. Lewis told the media that he wants to play Thanksgiving night so Patrick Willis doesn't steal the spotlight, but it'll be tough for him to make it back so quickly. I would never count him out though.

The good news for the Ravens is that they were still stout against the rush without Lewis last week, so the 49ers won't be able to run the ball as well as they'd like to.

RECAP: As I wrote in the Cowboys-Dolphins write-up, the rule for Thursday games is that you take the host if they're a good team because traveling on three days rest is taxing. Make that doubly taxing for the 49ers, who have to fly across the country on a very short work week. I know they've been winning on the East Coast, but this is their toughest challenge yet.

Week 11 Recap: My November NFL Pick of the Month in 2008 was on the Lions +8. They were playing the Buccaneers at home. Detroit jumped out to a shocking 17-0 start. About 2-and-a-half hours later, Tampa walked off the field as a 38-20 victor.

My rant after this:

How do you fail to cover as an 8-point underdog despite leading 17-0!? It takes a completely inept franchise with no postseason success in 50 years. It's almost as if the Lions have an owner who doesn't care about winning. It's like Detroit has an idiot coach who wants to play a crappy, has-been,journeyman quarterback with chronic fumbling and turnover problems over a second-round player who has never been given a chance.

How coincidental is it that three years later, a November NFL Pick of the Month in the same stadium would go against me despite the fact that a touchdown underdog I picked went up by 17 in the first half? It's like someone is looking down and laughing at me. I can almost hear the conversation:

God: I just checked out WalterFootball.com, and Walt is taking the Panthers as his November NFL Pick of the Month.

Al Davis: WaltaFootball... has made... fun of me... for yeaz... make him... lose this pick...

God: Agreed. This Walt guy is a douche. Hey, remember the time he lost his November NFL Pick of the Month when the Lions blew a 17-0 lead? Wouldn't it be funny if we had the same thing happen in this game?

Ugh. So yeah, this was my second-worst beat ever, only because the 2008 Lions were +8 and the Panthers were +7. It took a lot for Detroit to cover in the second half. E-mailer PhilSixerEagleFlyer had a nice, angry rant about it:

Up 17 points AND having seven in hand - i.e., up 24, and end up choking away the lead. But that's not the killer. It was death by a 1,000 lashes here - they're up 24-7 in the 2nd quarter, and even 27-14 with possession at the half. They can't do crap in the third quarter and enter the fourth down 28-27.

OK. They go down 35-27 with 8 minutes left. So now we're down. But the Panthers finally get some offense going and drive down the field to score a touchdown with five minutes left - 35-33. They have to go for two obviously. Degenerate that I am, I'm rooting for them to fail, so Detroit can run out the clock. But no - they convert.

OK, it's tied. If we go to overtime, I'm golden. But no - the Lions take the kickoff with five minutes left, and quickly drive down - 30 yards to Megatron, a stupid penalty on Carolina, and then on third-and-goal on the 7, they score.

OK, so now we're at 2:28, and it's 42-35. I'm looking at a potential push, or if Cam can somehow pull a touchdown out, a win with overtime. With 2:28 left, the first play from scrimmage, Cam gets picked and the Lions have it at the Carolina 23.

OK, now Carolina gets the ball back with two minutes left, and a meaningless touchdown gives me the (now) backdoor cover. Cam drives down to the Detroit 36 in a little over a minute, and then (of course), throws a pick and ends the game.

SHOOT ME NOW.

Shoot me now. I couldn't have said it any better myself.

I'm not angry right now. I'm just in a malaise. It's really difficult to find motivation for posting these picks. I'm not going to quit or anything, but it's just disheartening to handicap a game perfectly and watch a commanding lead wither away. When Detroit went up 49-35, I just laughed. I saw it coming. Because it's happened to me before.

So, in closing, I'd like to say I'm sorry, Mr. Al Davis. Please tell God not to ruin any other of my picks.

I'll be posting these NFL Picks throughout the day. Follow me at @walterfootball for updates.

ST. LOUIS OFFENSE: The Rams -3 was another pick I got wrong Sunday. They established a 7-0 lead, but couldn't score afterward.

The problem was the offensive line. They suffered multiple injuries during the contest, which completely ruined their game plan. Bradford either had to run for his life or throw quickly to avoid taking sacks, yet he was still taken down five times.

St. Louis still has major issues up front, but the coaching staff will at least be able to work on protection schemes during the week to help offset that. Besides, it's not like the Cardinals get much pressure on the quarterback anyway; they rank 19th in sacks (22).

Arizona is better against the run (13th; 4.2 YPC), but expect that to change now that nose tackle Dan Williams is out for the year. Unlike last week, Steven Jackson will establish himself on the ground, which will make things easier for Bradford.

ARIZONA OFFENSE: Speaking of Cardinal injuries, Kevin Kolb is likely out again. Ken Whisenhunt said Monday that Kolb wasn't close to playing against the 49ers, so it'll be surprising if he's able to suit up for this contest.

John Skelton was dreadful against the 49ers. He didn't make any reads and just stared down his receivers, allowing San Francisco to come away with three easy picks. The Rams obviously aren't nearly good as the Niners on defense, but they put tons of pressure on the quarterback (15 sacks in their previous four games). Arizona has surrendered the third-most sacks in the NFL this season, so that doesn't bode well for Skelton.

Meanwhile, something has to give on the ground. The Rams are 29th versus the rush (5.01 YPC), but the Cardinals can't run the ball because Chris Wells is really banged up. I'd give the edge to St. Louis because Wells gained just 20 yards on 10 carries against these same Rams in Week 9.

RECAP: The Rams dominated this matchup back on Nov. 6, but couldn't come away with a victory because Arizona had a four-leaf clover up its rear end. The Cardinals blocked a field goal and returned a 99-yard punt in overtime to get the win.

Now that Bradford is three weeks healthier, I think the Rams will make amends.

Two other things are going in St. Louis' favor:

First, the Cardinals are coming off an emotional loss to the 49ers. They battled San Francisco hard, but things ultimately fell apart in the second half. I don't think they'll be able to muster much energy against the Rams.

And second, Arizona is playing in its third-consecutive road tilt. Underdogs in this situation are a dreadful 11-24 against the spread since 2002.

I'll have a precise pick when a line is posted, but I really like the Rams.

LINE POSTED: I still really like the Rams. This will be a three-unit play.

The Psychology. Edge: Rams.
The Cardinals are going to be flat off their loss to the 49ers.

Vegas Recap: I'm an idiot. I've been saying for weeks that Vegas was going to Sandusky the public (too soon?) one of these weeks because the sportsbooks have been getting killed all year. Well, the public has just been Sanduskied (nah, not too soon), yet I had a terrible week. Ugh, how could I be so dumb!?

The sportsbooks won with the Broncos, Dolphins, Buccaneers, Redskins, Titans and Eagles, and lost only with the Raiders, Bears (of course) and Patriots. Of course, I was the dumba** to go against Tampa, Washington and Tennessee - though the Titans had no business covering that game. If I had lost a big wager in that ridiculous backdoor cover, I may have hanged myself in my garage.

I'll be updating the Vegas betting action all week, as usual. I'll notify you of any updates @walterfootball.

BUFFALO OFFENSE: I have no idea how the Bills are going to score. They had about 200 yards of offense while the game was still in question during a Week 9 meeting against these Jets. Ryan Fitzpatrick had a really ugly outing, as he spent most of the first half lobbing interceptions to New York linebackers. He was 4-of-12 for 24 yards and two picks at halftime.

And all of that was with stud center Eric Wood in the lineup. Wood is gone, and Buffalo just looked completely inept against the Dolphins last week.

Now, Fred Jackson is banged up. He injured his calf Sunday. He won't practice Wednesday, but he could play in this contest. Even if he does suit up, he may not be 100 percent.

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Mark Sanchez has had two brutal games in a row, but the last time he had a solid outing, it was against these Bills on Nov. 6. He went 20-of-28 for 230 yards, one touchdown and an interception.

Sanchez should have repeat success against a secondary that just lost starting corner Terrence McGee for the year. He'll also have all day to throw; he was sacked just once in the aforementioned meeting.

The Bills haven't been good at stopping the run ever since losing Pro Bowl nose tackle Kyle Williams. The Jets rushed for 129 yards the last time these teams clashed.

RECAP: The Bills' early success was legitimate, but they've just lost way too many meaningful players to injury. They're now one of the worst teams in the NFL, and I don't think they stand a chance against the Jets.

And by the way, like Arizona, Buffalo is an underdog playing in its third-consecutive road game (11-24 ATS trend).

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.
This line is high, which is forcing some action away from the Jets.

Time for hate mail! I received some interesting ones this week. The most peculiar came hours before Sunday kickoff, which was very strange. It's almost like this guy saw into the future:

NOM NOM NOM NOM.

Here's the first of three hate mails I received after the Lions had that awful cover:

NOM NOM NOM NOM.

In a less dirty hate mail...

I better get my December NFL Pick of the Month right, or I'll never speak to my family ever again. Hell, no one will want to talk to me and I'll have to leave the country. But I won't be able to go to Canada because...

...To give him football tips, of course!

CINCINNATI OFFENSE: Andy Dalton continues to amaze. Despite missing A.J. Green, Dalton had a furious fourth-quarter comeback against the Ravens. If he hadn't gotten screwed out of that Calvin Johnson-esque Jermaine Gresham non-touchdown, he may have completed the rally.

Dalton goes from Baltimore to Cleveland, but there actually isn't much of a drop-off in terms of pass defense. Believe it or not, the Browns are seventh versus the pass (6.6 YPA).

It doesn't appear as though Green will be able to play this Sunday. There's a chance, but I wouldn't bet on it. If he can't go, Pro Bowl corner Joe Haden will take away Jerome Simpson, who was brilliant against the Ravens. This will force Dalton to throw to Andrew Hawkins, Andre Caldwell and Gresham exclusively.

Where the Browns are weak defensively is against the run; they surrender 4.4 YPC, though they did a good job against Maurice Jones-Drew last week. Still, Cedric Benson should have a solid performance, which will make things easier for Dalton.

CLEVELAND OFFENSE: The Browns can't hang their hat on much this year in terms of their offense, but one positive is that they've run blocked pretty well the past couple of weeks. This could come in handy after they select Trent Richardson or Lamar Miller in the 2012 NFL Draft.

Chris Ogbonnaya has posted solid numbers recently, and that trend could continue in this contest. The Bengals are fifth versus the run overall, but they've surrendered at least four yards per carry to their previous three opponents.

As for Colt McCoy, he hasn't been that bad the past couple of weeks. He did a good job moving the chains against a top-five Jacksonville pass defense. Granted, the Jaguars were missing starting cornerback Rashean Mathis, but the Bengals are in a similar spot with Leon Hall out for the year.

RECAP: I don't have a clear read on this game, but the Bengals are usually poor bets as big favorites. I'm taking the points, but I wouldn't wager any money on it.

The Psychology. Edge: Browns.
The Bengals are going to be flat off their loss to the Ravens, but they may want a win in their division.

If you've been following this site, you know that I make a habit of responding to my spam mails. Last week, I posted an e-mail from a Richard Held, who told me I won a Facebook Award, which comes with a "lump sum pay out of (750,000.00 GBP)."

Hello, my name is Matthew Millen Kim. I won your Facebook contest. What a great month and a half this has been. First, I got to celebrate Half-Norwegian, Half-Korean Bisexual Heritage Month, and now I won 750,000.00 GBP.

Before you enter in my information, is it OK if I only use Facebook for lewd activities like downloading pictures of 100-percent USDA Men and Photoshopping kielbasas in their rear end?

Thanks,

Matthew Millen Kim

In case you were wondering, the address and phone number I gave to them belongs to Ford Field. I wish I could see the look on the Ford Field employees when someone calls up asking for a "Matthew Millen Kim."

At any rate, I received two responses. One was unbelievably hilarious. I need to show you a screenshot because you wouldn't believe me otherwise:

The other e-mail asked me to fill out a form. I sent it back to them:

OK, so they wouldn't be stupid enough to accept that form, right?

Wrong!

I received the following e-mail a day later:

Dear Online Customer; Matthew Millen Kim,

This is to confirm the receipt of your email in this bank. The details of your mail along with the personal data you sent was noted, understood and have been recorded. You are required to pay the sum of £220.00 Pounds Sterling to this bank for our administrative charge. As soon as you make this payment, endeavor to send to us your complete bank account details of the nominated account where you want us to transfer your winning funds to.

You are to follow the below instruction, to make the payment of £220.00 Pounds Sterling;

You are to contact the nearest Western Union Money Transfer Office in your location and make payment to our Chief Account Officer (Mrs. Lindsay Ryan) with the payment details below:

If anyone reading this lives in England, can you tell me if that's a legitimate address? And if anyone lives in Croydon, would you be willing to drive by that address and take some pictures of that building? I think that would be awesome.

At any rate, I didn't check my e-mail for a few days, so they sent me another e-mail:

Dear online winner Matthew Millen Kim,

We write to know the status of your award claims. How far have you gone with the paying bank? Do keep this office updated immediately as regards this issue.

If you are experiencing too much delay from the paying bank, you are hereby advised to personally email the accounts department of the NATWEST BANK with the below information:

I am having too much delay from the paying bank. I had the funds recently, but I landed on Park Place with three houses and had to pay the wheelbarrow $1,100.

You do not know how much I hate the wheelbarrow right now. I was planning to pay you guys and spend the excess monies on kielbasa, so I could use it when I invite some football players to my hotel room. Now, I only have $5 remaining with a Get Out of Jail Free card.

How much longer can I have to pay your fee? I am hoping to pass Go soon.

Thank you,

Matthew Millen Kim

HOUSTON OFFENSE: What a shame. The Texans finally get to avoid Peyton Manning in the AFC South race, and now they also have to survive without their starting quarterback. With Matt Schaub done for the year, they have to turn to Nick Lachey's boyfriend, Matt Leinart.

Leinart stinks. He's inaccurate and his passes lack zip. Unlike in Arizona, however, he'll be protected by a great offensive line. He'll also have Andre Johnson at his disposal, so he'll have time in the pocket to connect with his All-Pro wideout.

Leinart also didn't have the type of running game Houston possesses. Sure, teams will now have the luxury of putting eight men in the box, but the Texans' run blocking is so good that it won't matter against most teams. And after surrendering 121 rushing yards to the Browns, thanks to numerous injuries, Jacksonville should be classified as "most teams."

JACKSONVILLE OFFENSE: These teams battled each other recently, so it's pretty easy to get a gauge on how Jacksonville's offense will perform.

Back in Week 8, Gabbert was a humiliating 10-of-30 for 97 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. The Texans brought tons of pressure, and the raw rookie quarterback struggled as a result. Gabbert hasn't improved since then, so it's hard to like his chances.

Houston did a great job of putting the clamps on Maurice Jones-Drew as well, limiting the stud back to just 63 yards on 18 carries. Jones-Drew couldn't get going against the Browns of all teams, so I wouldn't expect him to rebound this Sunday.

RECAP: This has blowout written all over it. I love the Texans for three reasons:

1. If you've been reading this Web site for a while, you know that I love betting on good teams missing their starting quarterback in the first game because the other players know they have to bring 110 percent to the table. This dynamic worked with the Eagles over the Giants this past Sunday night. Everyone is writing off this Houston team now that Leinart is out, so I expect them to make a statement.

2. Road favorites coming off a bye are an amazing 33-10 against the spread since 2002. Teams laying points on the road tend to be really good teams, so it's only natural that they're very focused following a week off.

3. The Jaguars are just so banged up. Starting corner Rashean Mathis is done for the year. Defensive end Matt Roth and linebacker Clint Sessions are coming off concussions. Defensive end Aaron Kampman and nose tackle Terrance Knighton are also hurt. The defense, which has been carrying this team, is in shambles.

The Psychology. Edge: Texans.
The Texans are favored, so the "first game without the quarterback" rule probably doesn't apply.

The Vegas. Edge: Jaguars.
People have no problem betting on Nick Lachey's BFF.

Video of the Week: E-mailer Joseph A. sent over this weird dog video following Denver's win over the Jets. This video has nothing to do with Tim Tebow or anything, but Tebow's polar opposite, QB Dog Killer, might have some extra motivation for taking bets on how long this dog would last underwater.

CAROLINA OFFENSE: About a month ago, Cam Newton told the media that it was his fault that his team wasn't having much success this year. That clearly wasn't the case, as no one on Carolina's defense can tackle.

However, Newton has started playing careless football in recent weeks. He has been guilty of five interceptions and two lost fumbles in his previous three contests, and it's not like he's been battling stalwart defenses like Pittsburgh and Baltimore. His seven turnovers have come against the Vikings, Titans and Lions.

The Colts are obviously much worse than those three squads on either side of the ball. They're 30th against the pass (8.3 YPA), as their cornerbacks are an abomination. Newton should be able to move the chains with an effective ground attack by his side - Indianapolis is 18th versus the rush - but unless he stops forcing the issue, he'll commit more turnovers.

INDIANAPOLIS OFFENSE: Fortunately for Newton, the Colts have a quarterback who is even more reckless. Curtis Painter must bet against his own team because I find it ridiculous that any NFL quarterback can be so stupid with the football. Remember that game against the Chiefs in which he lit up Kansas City's secondary by throwing bombs to Pierre Garcon in the first half? Well, in his five starts since, Painter has seven interceptions and a lost fumble to just one touchdown pass.

Jim Caldwell hasn't announced a starter for Week 12 yet. I feel like he has no choice but to try Dan Orlovsky. It's not like he can be worse than Painter.

As odd as it sounds though, the Colts have a chance to win this game because the Panthers are so horrific defensively. Most of the starters couldn't tackle if their lives depended on it. So, if Indianapolis can establish the run against Carolina's 31st-ranked rush defense (5.1 YPC), Orlovsky and Painter might not even have the chance to give this contest away.

RECAP: Ugh. I'm picking the Colts again. They're a veteran team, so they have to win one of these games. Carolina is so bad defensively that Indianapolis could control this contest with a strong running game.

Then again, the Colts could just get blown out again, so there's no way in hell I'm betting on this.

The Psychology. Edge: Colts.
This game obviously means much more to the Colts.

Rich Eisen: Let's take a break until Dennis is done having an aneurysm. Stay tuned next week for more of Round 3. This draft will never end.

TENNESSEE OFFENSE: I think the Titan coaching staff might be a bit disappointed that Matt Hasselbeck's elbow injury wasn't more serious. Hasselbeck is expected to start, which is a major bummer because Jake Locker looked really exciting in relief last week. Locker went 9-of-19 for 140 yards and two touchdowns with an 11-yard scamper to pick up a first down, nearly leading Tennessee to an amazing 20-point comeback over Atlanta.

This would have been the perfect time to start Locker because Tampa Bay's defense is so bad. The Buccaneers are actually dead last against the pass (8.5 YPA), thanks in part to their lack of discipline on defense. It seems like they always commit a stupid penalty at the worst time possible.

Tampa also frequently screws up gap assignments, which would explain its 24th ranking against the rush (4.7 YPC). Chris Johnson was dreadful at Atlanta, but should have some sort of a rebound performance. Just don't expect much because he sucks.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: Josh Freeman has made terrible decisions all year, so it was shocking to see him so sharp against the Packers on Sunday. He went 28-of-38 for 342 yards, two touchdowns and a pair of interceptions. The last time he was this good, however (23-41, 303 yards, 2 TDs against the Saints in Week 6), he followed that up with a four-pick letdown against the Bears.

I don't trust Freeman yet. He needs to prove to me that he and his teammates are focused enough to have two consecutive strong outings. It doesn't help him that the Titans rank fifth in pass defense (6.5 YPA).

The Buccaneers absolutely need to keep LeGarrette Blount involved. Prior to the Green Bay game, Blount had disappeared after the Buccaneers fell behind early because he's not a big factor in the passing attack. But Tampa's coaching staff deserves a ton of credit for continuing to use Blount even when they were in a 14-0 hole at Lambeau.

Unfortunately for the Bucs, the Titans are much better against the run (9th; 4.1 YPC) than the Packers are (25th; 4.8 YPC).

RECAP: This is a pretty tough call. On one hand, I like the Buccaneers because they're playing as a road dog coming off an away loss, which is a 67-percent system. On the other hand, they just suffered an emotional defeat to the Packers and may not be up for battling the Titans.

The Psychology. Edge: Titans.
Tampa's season is over. They could be flat after that loss to Green Bay.

MINNESOTA OFFENSE: Adrian Peterson is out. The Vikings had the lead with the ball when Peterson suffered a high ankle sprain against the Raiders on Sunday. They couldn't muster any sort of offense after that until the second half because Peterson's injury completely ruined their game plan.

Toby Gerhart will start in Peterson's place, and I'm sure Percy Harvin will get more work coming out of the backfield. Unfortunately for the Vikings, the Falcons rank fourth versus the run (3.6 YPC), having just limited Chris Johnson to 13 yards on 12 carries. That was pretty damn impressive.

Christian Ponder will once again have to do everything on his own. But that's not necessarily going to doom the Vikings. Ponder has been pretty impressive overall, and the Falcons just had issues containing fellow rookie quarterback Jake Locker, who also has limited talent around him. Seriously, I'll take Percy Harvin and Visanthe Shiancoe over Nate Washington and Damian Williams.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: The Vikings have had issues offensively for most of the year, but they're still good on the defensive side on the ball. They rank sixth against the rush, limiting the opposition to 3.8 YPC.

Michael Turner should be held in check, so Matt Ryan will have to operate in third-and-long situations against a very fierce Minnesota pass rush currently tied for the league lead in sacks (31).

Ryan once again won't have his full complement of weapons. Julio Jones is expected to miss yet another game with a hamstring injury, which is great news for a Viking secondary that has struggled mightily this year.

RECAP: I don't have a great read on this game, but I'm leaning toward the underdog. The Falcons are just 2-3 against the spread as favorites this year, and as forum member JS_18 pointed out, they've allowed two backdoor covers this season. Ponder seems like the type of quarterback who is capable of getting a late touchdown to cover the spread.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Vikings.
No Adrian Peterson, so the Falcons will win easily - according to the public, anyway.

Percentage of money on Atlanta: 86% (46,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: None.

Matt Ryan is 17-9 ATS at home.

Falcons are 4-18 ATS at home immediately following a home win the previous 22 instances.

Week 12 NFL Picks - Late Games Bears at Raiders, Redskins at Seahawks, Patriots at Eagles, Broncos at Chargers, Steelers at Chiefs, Giants at Saints

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted
whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

My Team-by-Team ATS Record This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not
displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.