Dan Steinbock

Dan Steinbock

About the author:

Dr Steinbock is an internationally recognized expert of the multipolar world. He focuses on international business, international relations, investment and risk among all major advanced economies and large emerging economies. In addition to advisory activities (www.differencegroup.net), he is affiliated with India China and America Institute (USA), Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (China) and EU Center (Singapore). For more, please see http://www.differencegroup.net/. Research Director of International Business at India China and America Institute (USA) and Visiting Fellow at Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (China) and the EU Center (Singapore).

On October 1, the Chinese renminbi officially joins becomes the fifth international reserve currency. Until recently, Washington played geopolitics to defer the renminbi’s internationalization. However, what about Wall Street?

As China assumes G20 leadership, the prospect of global “protectionism” is on the rise and the stakes could not be higher for cooperation and major structural reforms. Without continued investment and trade, secular stagnation in advanced economies and growth deceleration in emerging economies will continue to broaden.

As China assumes leadership in the grouping, Beijing a wants greater role for Africa and the developing world in the G20. When China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi spoke in the Hangzhou Summit in May, he made it clear that Beijing intends to cooperate with other G20 countries to deliver ten outcomes. One of these focuses on Africa.

More than seven decades after 1945, international multilateral organizations continue to represent the victors of World War II, not the economic powerhouses of the 21st century. However, change is in the air.

According to polls, the race to the White House is over. Clinton has won; Trump has lost. If that proves the case, US economic erosion will slow but imperial foreign policy may escalate, which has critical repercussions in Asia.

In the aftermath of the Brexit tensions, Italy is defying Brussels to bail out troubled banks and preparing for constitutional referendum in October. If Prime Minister Matteo Renzi fails to achieve adequate support, economic destabilization will shift from the UK to Italy – which could pave way to the rise of anti-establishment left or right.

As non-traditional monetary policies in advanced economies are likely to eclipse, investors will increasingly turn to gold to hedge their portfolios. Around mid-April, when the price of gold was still about $1,290, I made a contrarian projection that gold had a bright, though bumpy future. Since then, gold price has climbed to $1,365 – which translates to 6% in just one quarter.

Assuming no surprises in the second half of the year, China’s growth in 2016 will remain near the target of 6.5 percent reflecting structural transition in the mainland, secular stagnation in the West and post-Brexit tensions globally.

After weeks of torrential rain across central and southern China, the mainland has suffered from a series of devastating floods. As the total price tag has soared, the impact will be felt in economic growth.

After the South China Sea arbitration ruling, uncertainty and friction may increase in the region. However, the economic promise of China’s rise and the Asian century will only materialize with peace and stability in the region.

The annual China-EU Summit is a great opportunity for Beijing and Brussels to align complementary investment agendas. Failure is no longer an option. The annual EU-China Summit will take place in Beijing in mid-week. The high stakes are reflected by high-level participation, which includes the European Council President Donald Tusk, European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and Federica Mogherini, the EU high representative for foreign affairs and security policy.

This weekend G20 trade ministers shall meet in Shanghai. It is an opportunity for China to pave the way for the G20 Summit in Hangzhou in September. Led by China, G20 economies could refocus global attention to world trade and investment, even amid rising economic uncertainty, market volatility and political risk.

Today, Hong Kong faces great economic uncertainty and unprecedented market volatility. Recently, Hong Kong’s financial secretary John Tsang Chun-wah warned that the city’s economy is facing its “worst time in 20 years.” In the past half a decade, growth has more than halved close to 2.5 percent. With Brexit chills, analysts expect a contraction.

Whatever its final impact, in the short-term the UK’s EU referendum will increase global economic uncertainty, market volatility and economic risk. In Africa, most scenarios will prove costly, particularly among those economies highly exposed to UK trade, investment, banking and remittances.

Amid secular stagnation, Europe's challenges have increased dramatically in the past few years, while new risks – particularly Brexit – have potential to trigger negative chain reactions, says Dan Steinbock. Since the European sovereign debt crisis in 2010, Brussels has avoided hard political choices. After weeks of travels in multiple European economies, I believe that’s no longer a viable option.