Boehner: GOP to rule House for years

Republicans will hold the House next year and for the next decade, House speaker John Boehner told POLITICO in an exclusive interview.

Boehner dismissed Democratic claims that House control is up for grabs and argued that the once-in-a-decade redistricting process has made the GOP’s hold on the majority ironclad.

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Redistricting “gives us a very strong foundation for the decade,” Boehner said.

“I think it will be nearly impossible” for Democrats to win back the House in November, Boehner said. “I think our freshman members are doing a good job preparing themselves for the upcoming election. I would also note that redistricting across the country has helped those freshman members and others in tough seats who will now have better seats. So I think we’re in pretty strong shape for the year ahead.” Boehner said he thought it “quite likely” the party would maintain control of the House through at least 2020, “as long as we listen to the American people and follow their will.”

With his party controlling much of the redistricting process this go-round, Boehner pointed to his home state of Ohio as an example of Republican success in using line-drawing to bolster potentially vulnerable members by shoring up their districts. Republicans hold 13 of Ohio’s 18 seats, and Democrats have few opportunities to make significant inroads there, Boehner argued.

Democrats are casting a broad net in 2012, targeting a wide swath of GOP incumbents. Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Steve Israel told reporters last week that as many as 76 Republican-held seats are in play — many of them held by freshmen.

The idea that redistricting will put Republicans in the majority for the next 10 years, Democrats insist, is overstating the case.

“[Then-National Republican Congressional Committee] Chairman Bill Paxon said the same thing in 2003 and was just as wrong as Speaker Boehner is today,” said Jennifer Crider, a DCCC spokeswoman. “By all objective analyses, redistricting is at least a wash and will most likely result in Democrats picking up seats.”

Independent analysts, including The Cook Political Report and The Rothenberg Political Report, project that Democrats are on track to gain seats in 2012 but will fall short of the necessary 25.

After three consecutive wave elections, Boehner foresees a far less tumultuous cycle — one in which either party will gain only a small number of seats. He said he was hopeful Republicans could expand their majority slightly, with the party poised for pickups in states like North Carolina and Georgia.

“We had a couple of wave elections in 2006 and 2010. I don’t think there are the ingredients for another wave election,” he said. “I think this is going to be hard fought on the ground, with members and candidates turning their voters out.”

He also envisions a different GOP message. Unlike 2010, when Republicans repeatedly took aim at then-Speaker Pelosi and cast her as a Washington villain, Boehner said Republicans will have a laser focus on President Barack Obama and his policies in 2012.

Still, the speaker acknowledged the party does face challenges — particularly in fundraising. Over the past year, the DCCC has managed to raise more money than its newly empowered House GOP counterpart.