I'll Have Another is trying to become the first horse since Big Brown in 2008 to win back-to-back legs of the Triple Crown.

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"We're going to win," he said with Joe Namath-like bravado.

History strongly suggests otherwise. Twelve different horses have won the last 12 Triple Crown races. Such extraordinary parity has not been seen since the 1920s, when 18 editions of the Kentucky Derby, Preakness or Belmont Stakes races produced 18 different victors from 1924 through 1929.

Many think the current streak has some of the ailing sport's most contentious issues at its core: legal and illegal medications, seeming breeding industry flaws, overly aggressive owners who are crowding fields with subpar talent and increasingly cautious trainers who are curtailing schedules with an eye toward long-term rather than immediate success.

The streak also has denied fans the star power they crave. For now, all eyes are on I'll Have Another, including those of Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas, whose Preakness entry is Optimizer.

Lukas said of I'll Have Another, who ran down Bob Baffert's front-runner Bodemeister by 1½ lengths in the Derby: "When the sun sets after the Preakness, if he hasn't won it, that fan base will absolutely disappear."

What will remain is the glaring absence of an equine star with enough firepower to take two of the three legs.

Steve Cauthen, who rode Affirmed to the sport's last Triple Crown in 1978, suggests that the emphasis of owners and trainers has changed.

"Nowadays, it seems like a lot more people are trying to pull off one of them because they don't feel their horse is good enough to win all three," said Cauthen, a Kentucky breeder.

Another Preakness failure by a Kentucky Derby winner also would extend the longest drought in Triple Crown history. Affirmed was the last to master the classic distance of a mile-and-a-quarter in the Derby, rebound two weeks later for the 1 3/16-mile Preakness and return three weeks after that for the 1½-mile Belmont Stakes.

What has happened over the last three-plus years provides ample ammunition for those determined to create a sport that will be as drug-free as possible.

Owner Gretchen Jackson is helping to lead that fight. Her 2006 Derby champion Barbaro flashed Triple Crown promise before suffering multiple breaks to his right hind leg in the Preakness. He died in 2007.

"I think our breeding hasn't gone in the right direction because of the significant use of medication," she said. "Some of our stallions have gotten their accolades because they ran on performance-enhancing drugs, so we're breeding to false champions.

"That's just my opinion. It is not based on pharmaceutical knowledge. It is just common sense."

Her husband, Roy, is not sure champions are being born here anymore.

"You have to call into question a little bit our whole drug culture," he said. "I hear from Europeans I know that they are backing off from buying horses in this country because of our drug use. They are not sure our stallions are legitimate."

Barry Irwin, CEO of Team Valor, a group that forms racing partnerships, won the Kentucky Derby last year with 21-1 long shot Animal Kingdom. He suggests that parity in Triple Crown races most likely reflects mediocrity.

"The U.S. is a dumping ground for horses that have problems in other countries," he said. "They look like healthy horses, but they are not. They are propped up by medication."

Irwin is an outspoken proponent of joining the international community by banning race-day medication. He and others think it ultimately debilitates the breed because horses whose problems are masked by medication are likely to pass on those issues to future generations.

Currently, the vast majority of horses receive a diuretic before they compete to reduce the chances of exercise-induced pulmonary hemorrhage.

"There are so few horses who are chronic bleeders," Irwin said. "It is not worth medicating 95% of the horses to protect the 5% who might need it."

O'Neill's triumph with I'll Have Another only put the spotlight on illegal attempts to gain an edge in races.

O'Neill has been fined three times and served a 15-day suspension for "milkshaking," giving horses an illegal mixture of a bicarbonate of soda, sugar and electrolytes designed to limit fatigue.

He faces additional action by the California Horse Racing Board with another case pending on a horse's failed test for raised levels of total carbon dioxide — a telltale sign of milkshaking, board spokesman Mike Martin said. Levels may not exceed 37 millimoles per liter.

"We play by the rules," O'Neill said. "I am vigorously challenging the accusations."

Not breeding for stamina

Irwin is so discouraged by his observations that he is increasingly breeding his own horses, including Animal Kingdom.

He notes that foals born with leg imperfections sometimes have surgery aimed to correct that. He prefers to allow nature to take its course.

"It all boils down to one thing — commercialism," Irwin said.

Breeders also respond to the market. Auctions reflect a demand for precocious horses capable of running at high speeds in relatively short races at age 2 and providing an immediate payoff.

That stands in contrast to the formula for Triple Crown success, which requires a peaking 3-year-old built for durability and stamina who can maintain his stride over distances he is unaccustomed to running.

"Breeders don't breed so much for stamina," Cauthen said. "It's the last thing on their minds."

Trainers have responded to the belief that their stock is increasingly delicate by handling it that way. Although it was thought not long ago that Derby success involved three prep races, each of the last five winners had two.

Graham Motion, who conditioned Animal Kingdom and will saddle fourth-place Derby finisher Went the Day Well in the Preakness, thinks less is more.

"It's the way we all train these days," he said. "We tend to be much more conservative. The way we all go about things is much different from what it was 20 years ago."

Veterinarian Rick Arthur, equine medical director on the California Horse Racing Board, noted that the Triple Crown was established in a radically different era.

"If the Triple Crown was going to be established today, you wouldn't do it this way," he said. "It's a very strenuous test for a horse, and it's going to take an exceptional horse like (1973 champion) Secretariat to do it again."

Today's gentle handling calls into question how fortified still-developing youngsters are for the physical and mental ordeal that is the Triple Crown and how likely they are to transfer their form from one race to the next.

Then again, Lukas suggests that owners are increasingly content with being there rather than winning.

"It has become a satisfying thing for ownership to say they had a horse in the Derby, whether that horse was realistic or not," he said.

Irwin thinks the desire for instant gratification increased after the terrorist attacks of 9/11.

"Certain people consider it an achievement to get a horse in the Derby," he said. "The achievement is in winning the Derby."

Larger fields, traffic jams

That attitude shift is reflected in the size of the Derby fields. The last four were composed of 19, 20, 19 and 20 starters. That can make for a horrific traffic jam. Affirmed, who held off archrival Alydar three times, faced 10 opponents in the Derby, six in the Preakness and four in the Belmont.

Lukas estimated that the best horse could withstand such congestion and win "25-30%" of the time.

Motion said of success in the opening leg, "The trip is the most important thing."

I'll Have Another got a dream trip from nerveless 25-year-old jockey Mario Gutierrez in the Derby, but he'll be challenged to repeat that at Pimlico, a track with tighter turns that favors speed.

Despite the extraordinary parity seen in recent years, O'Neill is confident his $35,000 bargain purchase can achieve what has become almost unthinkable.

"I couldn't be more excited about our prospects and what we can do here," O'Neill said. "I think he's got the mind-set, the stride and the stamina to take the next two. We all feel it if we have a little bit of luck."

Writers Preakness picks

How the news media see the 137th Preakness
Stakes

Writer

Publication

Horse

Frank Angst

Thoroughbred Times

Creative Cause

Jerry Bossert

New York Daily News

Bodemeister

Bob Ehalt

ESPN NY.com

Went the Day Well

Richard Migliore

HRTV

I'll Have Another

Steve Haskin

Blood-Horse

Went the Day Well

Tim Layden

Sports Illustrated

Bodemeister

Tom Pedulla

USA TODAY

Bodemeister

Jennie Rees

The (Louisville) Courier-Journal

I'll Have Another

Rich Rosenblatt

The Associated Press

Went the Day Well

Tim Wilkin

Albany (N.Y.) Times Union

I'll Have Another

Alicia Wincze

Lexington (Ky.) Herald-Leader

I'll Have Another

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