Good News, Bad News: My Climate Outlook Post-Paris

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Here
at the Aspen Ideas Festival, climate change is a much bigger topic of
conversation and focus this year. People want to know what the outlook
and game plan should be after President Trump’s decision to drop out of
the Paris climate accord.

Here is a summary of what I’ve been saying on
panels and interviews and podcasts.

1. It’s not true that U.S. citizens are hopelessly divided on climate. We can find common ground (but it takes work).

At
TNC, our work is guided by 1,300 trustee volunteers in 50 states and 70
countries. These volunteers are farmers and ranchers, lawyers and
developers, utility and energy executives, business CEOs and college
professors, government officials and private philanthropists. They are
young and old, rural and urban, from red states and blue.

I’m
pleased to report that this diverse group—which spans the political
spectrum—is now working together in the United States to build broad, bipartisan
support for practical climate solutions in all 50 states. They are
motivated by a growing understanding of climate impacts on the places
we’ve worked so hard to protect, respect for science and a strong
commitment to civic engagement.

For example:

In
Ohio, we teamed up with the Environmental Defense Fund to make the
economic case for increasing renewable energy. In a big win for clean
energy jobs, Governor Kasich vetoed legislation that would continue a
freeze on the state’s strong renewable energy portfolio standard.

In
Illinois, we supported legislation to double the state’s energy
efficiency goal and increase the use of renewable energy. The bill was
signed by Republican governor Bruce Rauner.

In Florida, we
supported a bipartisan ballot measure that erased barriers for financing
solar installations. Voters passed the measure with overwhelming
support.

In Massachusetts and New York, we are bringing
together political and business leaders focused on grid modernization to
lower energy costs, improve reliability and result in better climate
outcomes.

In Louisiana, we’re working with farmers, the USDA
and Disney to reforest marginally productive farmland along the
Mississippi River to sequester carbon. It’s a win-win: Disney receives
carbon reduction credits, farmers are compensated for restoring
less-profitable croplands and important wildlife habitat is restored.

And
just last week, 200 TNC Trustees—Republicans, Democrats and
Independents—convened on Capitol Hill to let their Senators and
Representatives know how much their constituents care about addressing
the climate challenge now.

By
tailoring solutions to circumstances in each state, we’re bringing
diverse groups together to find common-sense solutions to the climate
challenge. We have a long way to go, but these examples show that it’s
just not true that we’re hopelessly divided.

2. Nature can store enormous amounts of carbon.

While
clean energy currently grabs the lion’s share of headlines on climate
solutions, restoring forests and other ecosystems could contribute more
than one-third of global emissions reductions needed to reach the goals
of the Paris Agreement. From the forests of the Amazon to the peatlands
of North Carolina to the croplands of Iowa, this strategy has huge
potential to scale. And these strategies don’t just offset carbon
emissions. They improve water and air quality, enhance soil health,
increase agricultural yields, bolster biodiver­sity and support
livelihoods—all on very cost-competitive terms.

As many countries
move toward a goal of net zero emissions by 2050, these natural climate
solutions will play a critical role in offsetting any continued use of
any fossil fuels.

This is a win-win-win way to address the climate challenge that everyone should be able to support.

In the United States, several groups are keeping carbon pricing on the radar in Congress and in the states.

For
example, the Climate Leadership Council (CLC)—which includes 11 of the
largest companies in the world (including ExxonMobil and GM) as well as
former Secretaries of State, Treasury and Energy—is calling for a price
on carbon emissions starting at $40 per ton, with all the revenue
rebated to American households. The plan, supported by prominent
Republicans, draws on free-market principles that conservatives,
businesses and others have long endorsed. The Nature Conservancy is pleased to be a founding member of this group to provide support to conservatives and businesses that are willing to publicly call for a price on carbon.

Whether
or not you agree with all the details of the many proposals that have
been offered, let’s welcome these new voices to this important dialogue.

China’s
and India’s most recent five-year plans for reducing greenhouse gas
emissions go far beyond their Paris pledges. That’s very good news
coming from the world’s first and fourth largest emitters.

These
countries are ramping up their climate ambitions in a striking and
encouraging way. In Paris, China promised their emissions reductions
would peak in 2030—some critics complained this was just more or less
business as usual. Now China is committing to peak emissions before
2022. That’s a big difference. India is similarly ramping up its
commitments.

Both countries have extra motivation to up their
game—they know they must address their very challenging air pollution
problems by sharply reducing their use of coal. That helps a lot on the
climate front, too.

Want some more good news? Recent studies
suggest that the additional emissions reductions from China and India
will more than offset any U.S. backsliding under the Trump
Administration.

As the Trump Administration steps down from U.S. leadership on climate change, the rest of the world is stepping up.

Take the Under2 Coalition,
a group of 176 nations, states, provinces and cities that have pledged
to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by more than 80% below 1990
levels or less than 2 metric tons per capita by 2050. The coalition was
formed even before the Paris Agreement was signed. By demonstrating
what’s possible, these subnational governments can work with their
national counterparts to go above and beyond their Paris targets.

In
the United States, 13 states representing more than 30% of the U.S.
population—including two with Republican governors—have formed the U.S.
Climate Alliance, pledging to uphold the country’s Paris commitments in
their jurisdictions.

And the business sector is stepping up, too.
Following President Trump’s decision to leave the Paris climate
agreement, nearly 1,000 of U.S. corporations joined hundreds of city and
state governments in declaring, “We are still in.” The coalition, which
includes companies ranging from Apple, Google and Amazon to Unilever
and Target, has pledged to help the United States make good on its promise for
climate action.

Reasons for Caution

1. U.S. leadership—or lack of it—matters.

Even
as others pledge their continued support, the jury is still out on the
long-term impacts of the United States’ withdrawal from the Paris agreement. The
agreement is not intended to be a snapshot in time; it’s meant to be an
evolving story with nations coming back to the table to make ever more
ambitious pledges. U.S. leadership was critical to the Paris
negotiations—the country’s absence could be a big challenge.

And
in the United States, there’s a lot more to be concerned about beyond Paris. The
Trump Administration is working to unravel everything “climate,” right
down to regulations on methane emissions from landfills.

2. Climate science is under attack.

One
of my biggest concerns is the devastating cuts the U.S. Administration
has proposed to vital scientific programs at NASA, NOAA, NSF, EPA, USDA
and others.

Climate science is essential for understanding the
natural systems of our planet. Cutting this research will not only
impact our ability to develop breakthrough energy technologies and curb
carbon emissions. It will also seriously undermine our ability to
monitor storm events, understand ocean acidification and help
communities prepare for and recover from floods, storms and droughts.
These investments are a no-brainer for our security, our economy and our
communities and families.

Opinion
polls show a growing majority believes the climate is changing—and that
clean energy is the solution. The majority of Democrats are on board,
along with a majority of Independents and moderate Republicans. Yet put
climate on a list of any 25 issues on a public opinion survey, and it
will come out near the bottom as a priority for voter.

Climate
change is complex. Many of its impacts are in the future. The solutions
offered are too often prescriptions for more government. Voters—some
swayed by a well-funded anti-climate coalition—respond by deciding the
issue can wait for another day.

The Path Forward

So,
what can we do to build on these reasons for encouragement—and address
the reasons for concern? Let me offer a few suggestions:

Continue
to push for state policies on clean energy. States can lead the way by
ramping up their commitments on renewable portfolio standards and energy
efficiency resource standards and adding targets for energy storage and
grid modernization.

Support subnational efforts such as the
Under2 Coalition and the United States Climate Alliance that honor the
Paris Agreement and include accountable pledges for action.

Keep the discussion on carbon pricing alive in Congress and across the states.

Intervene
in the congressional appropriations process to maintain funding for
environmental protection—and climate science in particular.

Pave the way for “net zero” by enabling natural climate solutions in the next Farm Bill.

Rebuild
a powerful sense of civic duty. We need more citizens actively engaged
in politics at all levels—federal, state and local. We need many more
people to show up and vote. Elected officials need to hear more from
their constituents. At TNC we are doing our best to help more people
understand that action on climate change is crucial to a more secure,
healthy and prosperous future.

Here in Aspen this week, it
couldn’t be more clear: leaders from all sectors of society recognize
the urgency of acting on climate change. The big ideas I’ve heard here
this week are very encouraging. Now let’s do all we can to ensure that
those big ideas turn into action, and commit ourselves to making changes
now—in our policies, business practices and our communities.