The "Middle East and Terrorism" Blog was created in order to supply information about the implication of Arab countries and Iran in terrorism all over the world. Most of the articles in the blog are the result of objective scientific research or articles written by senior journalists.

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Sunday, February 21, 2016

A Fresh Perspective: The week the two-state solution died - Dan Illouz

by Dan IllouzHat tip: Dr. Jean-Charles Bensoussan

Israel and its friends should immediately take a good look at all the possible alternatives to the two-state solution, and discuss what it would like to see implemented regarding the conflict.

This past week in Israeli politics will be remembered as the week in which the two-state solution died.

The week started with the Labor Party convention, during which the
party officially endorsed a proposed change in policy suggested by its
leader, MK Isaac Herzog. The proposal suggested that the party platform
recognize the fact that the two-state solution is not feasible in the
near future. While the Labor Party still believes in the two-state
solution, it does not call for its immediate implementation anymore.
When the leading left-wing party in Israeli politics refuses to see the
two-state solution as an immediate goal, this marks its death.

The week continued with what can be seen as a moving funeral to the
twostate solution. Several speakers from Left and Right set out their
views as to the correct course of action in the Arab- Israeli conflict.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also spoke, and spoke directly to
Herzog: “A year ago, I clarified that facing the great changes
happening in our region and since all territory that is cleared is
captured by extremists, it doesn’t look like we can implement the
two-state solution under the current circumstances. And then you
attacked me.”

If, on the Israeli side, there is a clear movement toward a prudent
approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which rejects quick fixes
and utopian solutions and opens the door to discussion of alternative
solutions to the conflict, those who care about Israel should also seek
to understand what is happening on the Palestinian side.

After all, conflicts have two sides, and unilateral solutions to
conflicts are bound to fail. Therefore, a deeper understanding of the
trends on the Palestinian side will allow Israelis to better assess
what their next move should be, now that there is near-unanimous
agreement that, at least in the short term, a Palestinian state will
not be created.

The end of Mahmoud Abbas’s rule

It is no secret that Mahmoud Abbas’s rule over Judea and Samaria’s Arab
population is extremely weak. Many have claimed that if the Israeli
army was not in the area in order to protect his rule, Abbas would
quickly lose power to Hamas terrorists or another competing faction. In
such a delicate situation, and with Abbas turning 81 next month and
nearing the end of his career, the most important question one must ask
to understand the various scenarios for the future in the Palestinian
Authority is: What will happen once Abbas no longer rules? In a recent
interview with the Israeli press, Jerusalem Affairs Minister Ze’ev
Elkin, who serves on the security cabinet, set out his vision of four
scenarios.

Either Abbas will have one successor from the Fatah movement, or there
will be a Hamas takeover. It is also possible that a deal will be made
between Hamas and Fatah for combined rule. Finally, in the scariest
scenario, there will be no clear succession, and the confusion will
lead to anarchy.

Anarchy in Judea and Samaria

Elkin believes that the last scenario is the most likely, and in such a
scenario, since there would be no centralized address to communicate
and coordinate with on the Palestinian side, the Israeli response to
such anarchy would be very difficult.

These various scenarios, and the likelihood of the disintegration of
the PA followed by complete anarchy, bring up critical questions to
policy-makers: First of all, should Israel intervene in the internal
affairs of the Palestinians in order to influence what will happen
there in the next few years? If not, would the rise of complete anarchy
warrant such an intervention? Add to that equation the instability of
the Middle East as a whole and the rise of Islamic State, which is
inspiring terrorist attacks even within Israel, and you have a recipe
for real disaster.

How will Israel be able to control the free flow of weapons in Judea
and Samaria from the Palestinian security forces to terrorist groups
with no central address to hold accountable? Will Israel be able to
properly defend Jewish communities both within Judea and Samaria and
outside?

Threats create opportunities

The
threats posed by the instability in the PA and the unclear succession
to power create a great opportunity for the Israeli Right.

For years, the Right has ignored the need to propose a clear
alternative to the two-state solution, preferring to simply express
opposition to the twostate solution.

Various solutions were proposed, but no real and serious discussion
occurred as to their merits. No real research was undertaken to foresee
the economic, demographic and security implications of each. The
alternatives were mostly suggested as a marketing technique to justify
opposition to the two-state solution.

If only a tiny fraction of the money invested in furthering the failed
two-state solution would have been invested in the study of
alternatives, we would have a marketplace of ideas to discuss. We would
not be left without any solution to implement in the short term.

The current situation, with a deep understanding on the Israeli side
that the two-state solution is not currently viable, and complete
instability on the Palestinian side, might finally give us a window of
opportunity to look into alternative solutions and study them
thoroughly.

Unfortunately, as events unfold, there is very little time. Chaos in
Judea and Samaria might set in soon, and Israel should know what its
short- and longterm goals are before being faced with it.

Only thus will Israel know how to react to Abbas’s weakness, or to the
eventual dismantlement of the PA. Only when we know where we want to
get to, can we properly discuss the best way to get there.

This is why Israel and its friends should immediately take a good look
at all the possible alternatives to the twostate solution, now rendered
obsolete, and discuss what it would like to see implemented regarding
the conflict. Once such a solution is defined, Israel will be able to
better asses its relationship to the PA and to the Palestinian Arabs. Dan Illouz is an attorney and a former legislative adviser to the
Coalition Chairman in the Knesset. He previously served in a legal
capacity at the Foreign Ministry. He is a graduate of McGill University
Law School and Hebrew University’s master’s program in public policy. Source: http://m.jpost.com/#article=6022NzYzOEI1NzlCQTBCQjc2NzZEMjlCQkYyNkExRUZCMjg= Copyright - Original materials copyright (c) by the authors.