NewEnergyNews

Gleanings from the web and the world, condensed for convenience, illustrated for enlightenment, arranged for impact...

While the OFFICE of President remains in highest regard at NewEnergyNews, this administration's position on the climate crisis makes it impossible to regard THIS president with respect. Below is the NewEnergyNews theme song until 2020.

Tuesday, July 31, 2007

NEW ENERGY TO FACE HOUSE VOTE THIS WEEK

Speaker Pelosi appears to have done some bigtime wheeling and dealing to open the way for a vote on the Udall-Platts "Renewables" amendment (also called the Renewable Portfolio Standard or RPS).

Go toPOWER OF WINDto see the American Wind Energy Association's new video about the RPS and find out how to support Ms. Pelosi's principled stand for renewable energy.

AWEA points out that over the long haul there would be no significant cost increase for power while a renewables industry would create huge economic benefits: $100 billion in energy savings, 350,000 new jobs, economic windfalls to farmers who install turbines, reduced greenhouse gas emissions and reduced imported oil dependency are all likely in the wake of a national RPS.

WHATStill working to bring an energy bill to the House floor this week, Speaker Pelosi is making hard compromises with energy-state Democrats. It is reported Pelosi WILL allow the Udall-Platts amendment, requiring a portion of national electricity to come from renewables, to be considered in the floor fight. Vehicle fuel standards and oil and gas revenue issues have been part of what it is rumored Pelosi had to give up to get the renewables amendment included.

WHENMs. Peolosi is struggling to get the energy legislation to the floor for a vote this week, probably August 3, just before the summer recess.

WHEREWhen the bill’s provisions are worked out by House leadership, it will go to the Rules Committee and then be brought before the full House for debate.

WHY- The renewables package is known as the Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) because it is the specific standard (requirement) for how much of national electricity would come from renewables, among the other energies in the US portfolio. It is sometimes also called the Renewable Electricity Standard (RES).- More than 20 states already have an RPS, as does the EU.- If the congress adopts an RPS, it will give renewable energy producers long-term assurance of markets, despite temporary fluctuations, allowing them to build the brand new infrastructure required to move the nation from the fuels of the 20th century to the fuels of the 21st century. - RPS legislation was blocked in the Senate by conservative southern Republicans influenced by powerful coal-burning utilities.- The Department of Energy’s Energy Information Agency study said an RPS would not significantly raise power rates and would likely be good for the economy. Wood Mackenzie, a neutral think-tank, said an RPS would not raise power rates and would likely be good for the economy. A Union of Concerned Scientists study said an RPS would not raise power rates and would likely be good for the economy. A utility company think tank said an RPS would raise power rates and would likely be bad for old-fashioned coal-burning utilities.

- Whether there will be a vote on Corporate Average Fuel Efficiency (CAFÉ) standards is not determined. Senate Democrats compromised many points to pass its tougher CAFÉ standards package over objections of leaders from car-manufacturing states.- Pelosi held onto the 47 “Blue Dog” Democrats with concessions on how oil and gas producers pay federal royalties and deadlines drilling permits. She also withdrew a proposal giving states authority to block interstate electric power lines. "Royalty-in-Kind" provisions allowing oil and gas companies working offshore in the Gulf of Mexico to pay federal royalties in oil and gas rather than cash are pending. - Rep. Joe Barton, Texas, ranking Energy and Commerce Committee Republican called Peolosi’s package the "non-energy, energy bill" because it fails to support increased oil and gas production and expansion of nuclear energy. Pelosi says it is a new direction in energy, promotes conservation and incentivizes the development of renewables, plug-in hybrid cars and efficiency.

QUOTES- Green: "…there's no unanimity among Democrats on anything…" - Gonzalez: "A lot of credit has to go to the leadership for their willingness to meet with us and move some…"- Fuller: "If you look at the total package, you're still faced with a substantial set of new burdens — or old ones revived — that reduce the ability to produce ... oil and natural gas on federal lands…"

PROGRESS IN BIOMASS

Theoretically, any place there is garbage is a place that can develop renewable energy. And, theortetically, garbage is renewable. It certainly is around here. If NewEnergyNews is not right about this, why would Progress Energy be buying in?

WHATProgress Energy closed a 20-year contract for electricity produced by a 75-megawatt Biomass Gas & Electric-built plant for converting waste-wood such as yard trimmings, tree bark and wood knots from paper mills into energy .click to enlarge. or invest.

WHENThe Biomass plant is expected to begin operations in 2011.

WHERE- Biomass is based in Atlanta, Georgia. The plant will be in north Florida.- Progress, serving 1.7 million customers, is headquartered in St. Petersburg, Florida.

WHY- Last year, Progress Energy closed a 25-year contract with the Biomass Investment Group for a 130 megawatt biomass plant to be built in Central Florida.- Progress now uses 800 megawatts of electricity from renewables such as biomass, waste heat from agricultural processes and municipal solid waste and has contracted for 200 megawatts more in the last year.- This will be Biomass’ 3rd biomass gasification process plant.- Florida Public Service Commission must approve contract and certify plant.click to enlarge

QUOTESFarris: "The southeast is the most biomass-rich area of the United States. Any comprehensive plan for energy production for the state of Florida should include renewable energy, and biomass must be an integral part of that plan…"

GERMAN WIND GREW 39% IN 2006 -- YES, 39%!

Inside info for NewEnergyNews readers: Behind the headlines it would appear to be bad news that domestic sales (in Germany) were 29% of the industry’s activity in 2005 but only 26% in 2006 and dropped off 25% in the 1st 6 months of 2007. But this only APPEARS to be bad news because the truth is, according to sources at the AWEA WindPower Expo, this is simply the result of the German industry servicing international buyers first. The German companies (and most wind energy suppliers) are booking orders now from all over the world — for 2009! There is a tendency, because of strong domestic “feed-in tariffs” and RPSs from individual nations as well as the EU, to be confident domestic demand will not erode.

NEW ENERGY: HOME ON THE RANGE

WHORanchers Henry and Suzanne Stone (with son Scott, daughter-in-law Karen, son Casey and daughter-in-law Angela) , owners of Yolo Land and Cattle; Phil Hogan, Yolo County District Conservationist, U.S. Department of Agriculture/Natural Resources Conservation Service

QUOTESHogan: "Many people who come to us for conservation help come seeking answers and fixes for one problem-erosion or invasive species, water issues or whatever it may be…But the Stones have tackled and achieved improvements in each resource: soil, water, native plants, and wildlife habitat. They are big-picture people."

Monday, July 30, 2007

TOYOTA & UNIV OF CALIF TO PLUG IN

A new competitor for the prize of bringing the plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) to market is good news. Also, early reports are that Speaker Pelosi will keep a provision to stimulate development of the PHEV in the House Energy Bill expected to come to the floor this week. Another reason to go to:

QUOTES- Morrissey: "This is exciting technology that Toyota has been working on for years…This will be a great experiment to see how the market will respond to the plug-in modification."- Shaheen: "We will be looking at how people integrate this vehicle in their daily lives and monitoring behavioral response…I study how people adapt to new technology, how it affects their lifestyle…a plug-in hybrid is a step in a whole new direction…This is different from traditional refueling and will require some degree of adjustment…But it is still not clear if consumers are going to be willing to plug in their cars, and adjust to the price premium of this new technology…Only time will tell."

WHODr Mercedes Maroto-Valer, Associate Professor/Reader in Energy Technology, University of Nottingham's School of Chemical and Environmental Engineering;The UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC);

WHY- Many tout the development of GHG-capturing coal- and gas-burning power plants as the solution to climate change but the technology is not proven or standardized. This Centre will study various technologies and partner with industry and other research facilities.- CICCS is charged with selecting a safe method of capture and storage, creating interfaces with multiple science and engineering disciplines.- One innovative process to be studied involves burning fossil fuel extractions with a serpentine, a silicate, which turns the emissions inert. This mimics a slow-working natural process. It results in magnesite, a material that can be recycled as a construction material.- Geologic sequestration will also be studied.Serpentine crystals with sequesterd GHGs. (click to enlarge)

QUOTESDr Maroto-Valer: “The novel technologies developed at the Centre will enable the UK to meet its targets for the reduction of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, and thus help the UK to play its part in global efforts to tackle climate change…The way we will approach this problem is unique. The CICCS will bring together engineers, mathematicians, bioscientists, geographers, geologists and end-users in a 'hot-house' environment that encourages creative problem-solving.”

EARTH CREDIT CARD FROM GE

This is a textbook example of corporate power being leveraged in the name of a good and trendy cause. What profits more, the environment or the corporation? Or is it the credit card shopper, who pays the corporation for late fees but feels better by applying the credits earned to a noble purpose? Interesting moral conundrum that everybody thinks they know the true answer to. But it is inevitably troubling when a purportedly good cause comes to public attention through self-serving corporate marketing.

WHENAES/GE joint venture announced May 24. Goal: Reduce emissions by 10 million metric tons by 2010.

WHEREGE is the 2nd biggest company in the world or, in effect, this solar system. It is based in Fairfield, Conn.

WHY- Carsdholders can choose 1% rewards to the program or 0.5% to the program and 0.5% cash.- Conveniently, GE Energy Finance (in conjunction with AES Corp., one of the US’s biggest electricity producers) has renewable energy projects to which the credit card rewards will be applied each Earth Day. GE’s renewables projects generated $12 billion last year. Examples of GE projects: wind turbines, methane-collection systems.Also conveniently, the GE renewables projects can sell credits generated by the “rewards”-financed programs.- Most conveniently, the many GE and AES energy projects that generate tons and tons of GHG emissions, from coal-fired power plants to jet airplanes, can buy the credits to justify production.- To their credit, GE is the biggest US wind turbine manufacturer and is active in solar energy as well as “better-than-coal-or-nuclear” natural gas and methane plants.- According to a GE spokesperson, the concept was originated by AES.- Bank of America Corp. and Citigroup Inc. have similar programs.An environmental cause, an advertising campaign, a business model. (click to enlarge)

QUOTESBolsinger: “Consumers want this…We have this wonderful, very unique situation where we can create verifiable, credible offsets, and GE Money in the upfront piece can deliver."

WHATThough it produces 14% of its electricity from renewables, Italy is not on track to meet its 2010 goals for renewable production and therefore wants to create a subsidy for solar R & D but this may run afoul of the EU Commission’s rules for what a member nation may do to stimulate renewables growth.

WHENThe R & D subsidy would be included in Italy’s 2008 budget if it is approved. Italy believes the move would allow it to generate 3000 megawatts of solar energy by 2016.

WHERE- The subsidy would apply in Italy and the government hopes it would do for Italian solar what “feed-in tariffs” have done for renewables in Germany and Spain.- The EU Commission is in Brussels.

WHY- “Feed-in tariffs” are entirely allowable by EU Commission rules but the proposed Italian subsidy may not be. “Feed-in tariffs” pay anybody who puts electricity into the grid via renewable installations. That is different from having the state fund “start-ups.”- Italy’s “green obligation certificates” are similar to “fedd-in tariff” in that they pay a specific price for each kilowatt-hour of renewable energy produced but this has not created enough incentives to entrepreneurs to meet the 2010 goal.- EU Commission rules specifically exempt R&D subsides except in the case of pure research. The Vatican recently announced they would install solar panels. (click to enlarge)

QUOTESArticle: “The question is whether this direct subsidy of the production of solar panels will fall foul of the EU competition commission. While guaranteed returns for investors via feed-in tariffs have been successful in raising renewable capacity in both Spain and Germany, it is highly questionable whether direct production subsidies would not be seen as a distortion of the marketplace.”

WHERE- Clinton and Kikwete met in Arusha.- The installations will be in the Lindi and Mtwara regions of Tanzania.

WHY- The Foundation has already funded solar energy to three dispensaries and a health center in Masasi District. - Implementation follows on a commitment Clinton made to Kikwete in New York in September 2006 to help with developing social services in Tanzania. He will also reach out to other development partners.- Clinton is mainly in Tanzania for the launch of an anti-malaria program which will deliver 95% cheaper drugs to pilot projects in Maswa and Kongwa districts.In this case it is an energy-saving CFL bulb, but it is not cursing the darkness.

QUOTES- Clinton: `I have decided to extend a similar project in 40 dispensaries and health centres in Lindi and Mtwara regions…`- Kikwete:`I personally, together with Tanzanians, value your contribution in the fight against malaria and HIV/Aids in this country. We also thank you for supporting community services…`

CHINA TO MARKET RENEWABLES

This is spectacularly smart of China. While it is a booming economy, it is still a “developing nation” and therefore able to sell credits to the Europeans to develop a renewables infrastructure. By the time it joins the US as a “developed nation,” the Europeans will have built the Chinese a new energy system.

WHATEmissions market insiders are whispering that China is serious about developing renewable energy installations as much for the opportunity to sell emissions credits to EU emitters as for the clean energy produced. This move signals a new Chinese inclination to partner on energy project development.

WHENEuropean Chamber of Commerce seminar July 26.The EU ETS (carbon market) was $30 billion in 2006. It is expected to double in 2007, double again in 2008 and reach $250 billion by 2010.

WHYThe Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocols incentivizes the funding renewable, emissions-free energies by giving developers credits for their investments. The credits allow the investing company to emit greenhouse gases above their capped allotment in the process of doing business. Penalties for such emissions with offsetting credits are higher than the cost of the investment.The procedure of selling credits has driven a huge and growing credit market. China has marketed efficiency measures and hydrofluorocarbon emission reductions but finds renewable energy installations more sustainable if more expensive.A legal process, covered in the seminar, is required for China to obtain registration validating the renewable projects. Projects also need to become “Designated Operational Entities” via the UN. July 13: 601 projects approved by China, 94 DOE, 13 issued certified credits.Targeted projects: wind, hydro, biomass and liquefied natural gasusing new methodologies.Insiders do not see China developing its own cap-and-trade system before the expiration of the new Kyoto phase in 2012.The nations busy selling emissions credits (mostly to the EU) (click to enlarge)

QUOTESPeter Corne, managing director, Eversheds LLP: "Economic conditions of a country can undergo significant changes within a year, so it turned potential investors away from China to countries like India, which went ahead with the CDM program as soon as it was enforced…"

WHATAs a major non-OPEC producer of oil and gas supplies to Europe, Russia’s comprehensive analysis of the players and roles is interesting. The main takeaway: The EU is still seriously oil-dependent.The Region (click to enlarge)

WHENAnalysis in Russian newspaper “Nezavisimaya Gazeta” July 23.2006: EU imported 80%+ of its oil, 50%+ of its natural gas. These figures are expected to increase.

WHERERussia, Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Iran and Georgia, countries in the Black Sea region involved in oil/natural gas development, production and pipelines, as well as Moldova, Azerbaijan, Greece and other countries with Black Sea ports doing oil and gas shipping.

WHY- Main exporter: Russia- Control of pipeline transport but in need of Russian product to carry: Ukraine, Romania- Central Asia producers in need of Russian infrastructure: Turkmenistan,. Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Iran.- The EU dependent on all systems and producers.One of the pipelines. (click to enlarge)

QUOTES“…new transportation routes are projected for oil to pass through the Black Sea on the Balkan pipeline, from the Caspian countries through Caucausus and…through Turkey and the Mediterranean Sea.”

WIND & CZECHS MATE

So what do you do if you live in eastern Europe and the Russians are holding you hostage to their oil and gas? You grow wind.

The quote at the bottom is interesting. Could it be that wise “deciders” understand that the advantages of wind in even an inadequate environment outweigh the disadvantages of fossil fuels and nuclear?

WHY- Installed output 44 megawatts covered 14,000 households.- Goal: 1,200 megawatts installed capacity in the next few years, the equal of one of the nunits at the Temelin nuclear power plant in southern Bohemia.

QUOTES“Companies are increasingly interested in investment in the new wind power plants despite the fact that the country's conditions for such production are not good, some of the experts say.”

Saturday, July 28, 2007

HOUSE ENERGY BILL: SHOWDOWN ON RENEWABLES STANDARD

If the House passes this legislation, representatives of the Senate will be forced to reconsider it during the conference process in which the 2 bodies work out compromises on the differences in their legislation.

ClickPOWER OF WINDto see the new American Wind Energy Association TV spot and get involved in the good fight for renewable energy!

WHATLate on Friday the news broke that Speaker Pelosi would get the House Energy Bill package to the floor by the middle of nest week. In conjunction with this news, the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) announced a new media campaign on behalf of the Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) section of the legislation.

WHENThe latest reports say the bill will be submitted to the Rules Committee for final approval July 30 or 31 and the floor fight will be joined July 31 or August 1.

WHEREUnited States House of Representatives.

WHY- The bill is a set of initiatives on energy efficiency, biofuels and other renewables. - AWEA is most concerned with an amendment sponsored by Udall and Platts calling for a Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS), also known as a Renewable Electricity Standard (RES). The Udall/Platts amendment calls for a national commitment to obtaining 20% of US electricity by 2020. - AWEA strongly advocates an RPS because it sets a minimum level of commitment to renewables that allows wind, solar, biomass and other such producers of energies vital to the fights against oil-dependency and climate change to push forward with development. - A similar amendment was defeated by the Senate because conservative, mostly southern, senators held just enough votes to threaten filibuster if debate was pursued. The position of those against an RPS is that it might drive up the cost of electricity. AWEA points out that studies by the Energy Department’s Energy Information Association and the independent Wood Mackenzie research firm both say that over the long haul there would be little cost increase and many economic benefits. $100 billion in energy savings, 350,000 new jobs, economic windfalls to farmers who install turbines, reduced greenhouse gas emissions and reduced imported oil dependency are all likely in the wake of a national RPS. - AWEA has identified 20 key House members on whose votes the RPS amendment hinges.- Reports of Markey’s willingness to compromise on vehicle Corporate Average Fuel Efficiency (CAFÉ) standards is said to have been important in getting Speaker Pelosi’s legislation to the floor. On the other hand, both Dingell and Hoyer still contend the bill will not have a CAFÉ standards element.How a bill becomes a law (tho the chart leaves out the part about the plastic-wrapped money in the freezer). (click to enlarge)

QUOTES- Gregory Wetstone, AWEA, Director of Government and Public Affairs: "The ad campaign is part of our effort to focus attention on this crucial referendum on American energy policy…We believe that greater public awareness will translate into more Congressional support for renewable energy sources like wind and solar power, which are overwhelming popular, but face well-financed opposition."- On Markey’s compromise: “According to a summary of Markey's new draft, like the Senate bill, individual manufacturers comply with attribute-based standards - such as size and weight - that may be lower than 35 miles per gallon as long as the industry as a whole complies with the 35 mpg standard…’In that way, manufacturers that make more trucks than cars can be assured that they will only have to meet standards that are appropriate for their fleets,’ the summary said.”

WHATThe burning of fossil fuels and the resulting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions extract costs (called externalities because they are external to the market price). These costs are currently being transferred away from emitters. Climate change has revealed some of the damage emissions cause (the cost of the externalities). Leaders are attempting to devise ways to shift the costs of those damages to those responsible. The conundrum: How to do so without inflicting economic harm.

WHENCap-and-Trade is coming. Talk about a “carbon” tax is coming.

WHEREWashington, D.C., and across the country. The EU runs the world’s most well-established Cap-and-Trade system. Regional systems are in development in the west and New England. Australia/New Zealand are developing another.

WHY- Dingell’s proposal was a tax on emissions. - The cost increases would theoretically discourage fossil fuel consumption and incentivize greener technologies. But converting externalities to the market price of the item inevitably makes it cost more. The tax would add to the cost of gasoline, electricity generated by coal-burning plants and agricultural products grown and harvested with fossil fuels.- For this and other reasons, the carbon tax is politically explosive.- A Cap-and-Trade system is more popular with legislators because it does not involve a politically divisive new tax and because Big Business generally likes the idea of letting the marketplace control emissions. Business men also like the idea of a new marketplace involving carbon credits. Environmentalists like the idea of strict caps, or limits, on emissions.- The system: The government would assess all emissions and set limits on how much each business could emit. The government would then give and/or sell permissions to emit called credits. Business would trade the credits, those needing to emit more to sustain their businesses buying, and those effectively cutting emissions with renewable energies and efficiency selling.- The system incentivizes all effective emission-reducing measures. But the devil is in the details.Cap-and-Trade is a little like poker: Its as much about the way the hand is played as about the cards dealt. Thats why a lot of big businesses are for it. Of course, it helps to come to the table with a big bank roll.

QUOTES- Congressman Dingell: "It is my intention to develop a comprehensive, mandatory, economy-wide program to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases…[but] I sincerely doubt that the American people are willing to pay what this is really going to cost them…"- Economist Komanoff: "You can't be an economist without believing with every fiber of your being that the most direct and effective way of reducing the use of something is to raise the price of the good as high as possible…You want it to reflect the externalities that are not included in the price." - Bureaucrat Wicker: "I've never seriously thought about it because a carbon tax is so far outside the realm of the doable…It is a good way to discourage consumption…"- Environmentalist Petsonk: “[Support of cap-and-trade indicates] you're focused on setting a defined level of pollution control."

WHATBy using large systems to freeze water during off-peak hours and then blowing air on its way to cool offices through the ice to cool it instead of running their air-conditioners during peak electricity cost hours, buildings are cutting costs by using less electricity.How a "chilled water" cooling system works. (click to enlarge)

WHENThis is an old idea, going back to hanging wet leaves and grass mats over windows and blowing fans past buckets of ice.

WHERECredit Suisse's offices, Metropolitan Life tower, New York City; Morgan Stanley Westchester County offices and Fifth Avenue offices; New Goldman Sachs headquarters; Over 3000 systems have been installed worldwide.

WHY- The MetLife Tower system (three basement cooling rooms w/chilling machines and 64 800-gallon water tanks) is reportedly the emission reduction equivalent of taking 223 cars of the streets or planting 1.9 million acres of trees. It lowers peak energy use by 900 kilowatts, cuts 2.15 million kilowatt-hours/year.- Morgan Stanley/Westchester County cuts peak energy use by 740 kilowatts, cuts 900,000 kilowatt-hours/year.- Incentives for installation from New York State Energy Research and Development Authority.- Trane, air conditioning arm of American Standard, is installer. Installation requires large amounts of space and costs approximately $3 million.The MetLife Tower

QUOTES- Beck: "If you take the time to look, you can find innovative ways to be energy efficient, be environmental and sustainable…"- Coulard: "When you make something mechanical, it can break, but a big block of ice ... isn't going to do anything but melt…The idea of not only saving money for large companies, but doing something that benefits the environment, is win—win…It's doing the right thing…This is for companies that want to go green, but there (need) to be other benefits, returns on investments…It works for larger companies because their cooling costs are so considerable."

WHAT- FERC and CFTC are fining Amaranth traders for manipulating natural gas prices to their own benefit. They are fining Energy Transfer Partners LP for Houston Ship Channel delivery hub gas market manipulations, especially following Hurricane Rita in 2005. Fines approach $500 million from FERC in the Amaranth case and over $200 million in the Energy Transfer case. CFTC has not finalized its fines yet but they are expected to be of similar proportions.

WHEN- Fine levied July 26.- Amaranth manipulations were primarily in the spring, summer and fall of 2006. The Energy Transfer swindles were from December 2003 to December 2005 but especially in September 2005, when energy supplies were tight right after the hurricane.

WHERE- Fines announced in Washington, D.C.- The Amaranth manipulations were the result of the traders finding a loophole between NYMEX and the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE.N) that they worked to their own benefit.- The trading hubs where Energy Transfer worked prices were the Houston Ship Channel and Waha, Texas.- Energy Transfer is based in Dallas.

WHY- Both manipulations pushed gas prices down, allowing consumers to benefit in the short run but ultimately benefiting only the principals while threatening market intergrity. - Hedge Fund Amaranth eventually collapsed, leaving investors without $6.4 billion in the hole.What happened was Amaranth. (click to enlarge)

QUOTESKelliher: "For these two companies, failure to refute these findings will confirm that their actions harmed many wholesale market participants, creating losses that ultimately hurt natural gas customers across the country…Manipulation designed to lower prices is as offensive as manipulation that raises prices…"

Friday, July 27, 2007

$100/BARREL—MONTHS AWAY?

This is all very good news for New Energy, driving demand for it up and making it more and more affordable in comparison. Not really news for readers of:The Oil Drum

The takeaways: (1) Deutsche Bank chief energy economist Adam Sieminski says, "Something has happened. Costs have continued to escalate, and the geopolitical situation has gotten worse." (2) And Matthew Simmons (chairman, Simmons investment bank) says conditions driving oil to $200/barrel are easy to foresee. "Oil is still cheap…In the 20th century, with a few exceptions, oil was almost free. The only exceptions were during 1973, 1979 and when Iraq invaded Kuwait."

WHAT- Oil is hovering at the $75/barrel mark, up 51% since January and 200% since early 2003. A record number of futures at $100/barrel have been sold, amounting to 50 million barrels. - The all-time high: $78.40/barrel, July 14, 2006.

WHEN- Currie of Goldman Sachs has predicted $95/barrel oil this year and $100/barrel oil by 2009. Murti predicted $105/barrel oil in March 2005 but was wrong.- Consumption to end of 2007: increasing 3.6 million barrels/day (the daily production of Kuwait + Oman)

WHERECurrie is in Goldman Sachs’ London office. Murti is Goldman Sachs’ New York office. Kilduff is at Man Financial’s New York office.

WHY- Predictions are somewhat mitigated by OPEC’s announcement this week it will increase production (but many analysts believe it is not capable of significant increase due to dwindling supplies and inadequate infrastructure). - Other producers are not adequately replacing OPEC, due partially to the high costs of developing new production: Shortages of deepwater drilling equipment and workers to run them, as well as pipe welders, pilots, refinery workers and oil-sands crews are driving prices up.- Nigerian disruptions and military action against Iran worry traders.- High prices will benefit producers (ExxonMobil, PetroChina) but will harm transportation (railroads, airlines). High prices mean potential inflation to importers (like the US). And high energy prices cut economic growth across the board.But high prices have not slowed demand. And major recent reports by the International Energy Agency and the National Petroleum Council say demand, driven by developing nations like Brazil, China and India, will not slow for the next 20 years or more despite the inability of supply to meet it. Sometime in this century people will stop measuring energy in "barrel" units. (click to enlarge)

QUOTES- Kilduff: "We're only a headline of significance away from $100 oil. The unrelenting pressure of increased demand has left the market a coiled spring."- Murti: "Ultimately, the key to the outlook going forward is when will Saudi Arabia ramp up production…If you have a situation in which inventories globally get drawn to critically low levels, the volatility in this market is likely to explode, which significantly increases the probability of $100 oil."- Rubin: "Prices have doubled, and demand is alive and well and accelerating…The argument that rising prices would choke demand and bring increased output is falling to the wayside."- US Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman: "There are questions about whether the oil industry can keep up with demand…"- Robert Ebel, Center for Strategic and International Studies: "It appears that high prices are acceptable to the American consumer."

5. Tax incentives for Lower Emission Vehicles.11 EU member states have incentives but standardization would create clear market signals facilitating economies of scale.Here's a thought that’s not on the list.

QUOTESArticle: “ACEA believes that putting the environmental burden solely at the door of the automobile industry will jeopardize European car production and not achieve sufficient environmental gains…[M]anufacturers, governments, technology firms and drivers [need] to work together to prevent growing emissions…[T]here is not, and will not be, a single technical solution to the problem…”

WHERE- Report made to House of Commons in London.- The committee specifically cited investments in reforestation and renewable energy developments in Africa, not presently being developed by mandatory schemes, as opportunities in voluntary markets to affect greenhouse gas consumption if the worthwhile investments are identified.

WHY- Without regulation and standards, offsets are of variable value. Sellers and investors would become jaded and cynical and otherwise valuable opportunities in Verified Emissions Reductions would be lost.- The report said Kyoto Protocol Clean Development Mechanism standards would be too “restrictive, bureaucratic and costly…” for voluntary projects.- Failed programs cited included public relations schemes and planting programs not tended. Offsetting projects or plans from rock band Coldplay, British bank HSBC and British Airways came in for criticism. Other businesses currently in voluntary offsets: Google, Yahoo, Marks and Spencer, News Corp.click to enlarge

QUOTESReport: "Without transparency consumers will have little confidence in purchasing or otherwise dealing in offsets, confidence that the market needs in order to grow…The Government must act quickly…This unnecessary restriction could seriously affect the growth of the Verified Emissions Reduction market…Since its offsetting scheme with Climate Care was launched in 2005, British Airways has encouraged the purchase of only 1,600 tonnes of offsets on average each year, approximately the emissions from four return flights to New York…”

QUOTESMitra: "Developing organic solar cells from polymers, however, is a cheap and potentially simpler alternative…Imagine some day driving in your hybrid car with a solar panel painted on the roof, which is producing electricity to drive the engine. The opportunities are endless…Using this unique combination in an organic solar-cell recipe can enhance the efficiency of future painted-on solar cells…Someday, I hope to see this process become an inexpensive energy alternative for households around the world."

Thursday, July 26, 2007

4 SENATORS TO PROTECT EMERGING US GHG MARKET

This is big news because it is demonstrates legislative preparation for the upcoming fight over emissions regulation. Will it be a "carbon" tax? Unlikely, though a tax has been proposed. Will it be Cap-and-Trade? This cost containment measure says the senators are getting ready to say "Yes" to Cap-and-Trade. And business is ready for them to do so. Will they say "Yes" before the 2008 presidential election? The smart money is still betting "no."

WHATCost-Containment for the Carbon Market, a program to protect businesses against unexpected, disruptive surges in the cost of greenhouse gas (GHG) credits when a Cap-and-Trade plan is implemented.

WHENThe proposal regards a national program to control emissions as “inevitable” but does not specify when. Senators Warner and Lieberman are working on legislation to be presented this fall but most observers don’t expect it to be finalized until after the 2008 presidential election.

WHEREThis is for a U.S. GHG emissions market.

WHYThere are 2 basic aspects:- (1) Oversight. The plan calls for a presidentially-appointed 7-member “Carbon Market Efficiency Board” similar to the Federal Reserve Board that would provide periodic informational updates and make corrections in the form of additions or withdrawals of future credits to hold the market steady and allow businesses the ability to make plans for emissions control measures.- (2) Credit cost containment methods. (a) If costs go up and stay up, the Board would allow borrowing against future credits to achieve short-term goals that reduce long-term emissions and earn the future credits back: "For example, if I'm a power company and I know I'm building a new plant that can capture and store carbon emissions that will be ready in eight years, I can borrow a few more permits now, knowing I'll be able to pay them back when that low-emissions plant is up and running. This remedy allows companies more flexibility in making those individual decisions but does not change the national environmental objective."

QUOTES- From the Q & A on the plan’s details: “This proposal will help guide a healthy U.S. carbon market by providing cost relief measures and oversight…This plan is aimed at creating a healthy, continuing greenhouse gas emissions market.”Roberts: Importantly, the cost-relief measures would…be invoked only if average prices exceed a pre-set range, established by Congress and updated regularly…they are explicitly not intended to shield the market…not be invoked on behalf of individual industries or sectors…be explicitly temporary…- Roberts: The board will be politically appointed; that opens the door to politicization…- Roberts: Now the key is getting a cap-and-trade program with appropriately ambitious targets.

TENNESSEE SENATOR DISSES WIND

NewEnergyNews would be disinclined to mention the regrettable Senator from Tennessee were it not for his uninformed opposition to a vital American resource. Insiders report he is in fact a fine man and great outdoorsman. Just misguided about renewables, apparently. Has he talked to anybody from Texas? Could somebody get him together with Boone Pickens?

WHEN2006:- Alexander: Buffalo Mountain produced energy 7% of last August, 19-24% for the year, a disappointment.- Frank Pizzileo, asset manager, Invenergy LLC (owner of 15 of the 18 turbines, including those pictured): "a success…In general, you have a couple of months with lower production…You certainly make up for that during the balance of the year."- Alexander interview July 19.

WHERE- Wind turbine parts maker Aerisyn LLC set up shop in Chattanooga in 2005.- Tennessee has the 18-turbine Buffalo Mountain windfarm. The state’s wind energy is on East Tennessee mountaintops and ridges.

QUOTES- Alexander: "It's a puny amount of unreliable power at a very high cost…We have 10 million people a year come to the Great Smoky Mountains…They don't come down to see white towers as big as football fields with flashing lights. They come to see the Smokies… I think [giant wind turbines] absolutely destroy the landscape…I'm trying to challenge the environmental and conservation community and ask why they've forgotten about the American landscape."- Gil Melear-Hough, Southern Alliance for Clean Energy: “[The 18-turbine Buffalo Mountain windfarm in East Tennessee is] on an abandoned strip mine…You're making lemonade out of lemons. There's not much that will grow there. They have coal mining going on the next ridge over and are tapping natural gas in the same mountain…I don't think Tennessee will ever be 100 percent wind power… but can we get 5, 10, 15 percent from wind? Absolutely…"

WHATEndorsed by the Committee on Energy and Energy Efficiency, a bill establishing a Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) for the state now moves to House Committee on Public Utilities and another committee before going back to the Senate for approval of compromises made in the House.

WHEN- Measure endorsed July 23. Worked out in multiple June sessions but just moved forward with compromises now. The House Committee on Public Utilities will take the measure up July 25. - The RPS mandates percentages of electricity to be derived from renewable energies. Private utilities must meet their goal by 2021. Public utilities and co-ops must meet a slightly lower goal by 2018.

WHEREThe North Carolina state capital and seat of government is Raleigh.

QUOTESFisher: "The questions that remain regarding this particular provision are too great for us to just throw the work from 1982 out the window. We need to get those questions answered. We owe it to the people we represent…"

HOW TO SELL THAT ENERGY IDEA

Some might say this research proves NewEnergyNews is weakened by its eschewal of specialization. But refusal to specialize is the very purpose of NewEnergyNews and this research validates that purpose. This research says that if you only think about one New Energy, you will only think about and come to understand that one New Energy but if you think about all the New Energies, you will necessarily compare and contrast, understand how they work together and how they don't.

To paraphrase a recent observation, our energy crisis is not going to be solved by a silver bulllet because it is not an energy crisis. It is an energy opportunity and it will be solved by silver buckshot, many different New Energies rising to the challenges simultaneously.

WHATDoctoral research as part of 'Biomass as a sustainable energy source: environmental load, cost-effectiveness and public acceptance' financed by the NWO/SenterNovem Stimulation programme Energy research to develop knowledge in the natural sciences and humanities for the transition to sustainable energy supplies.

QUOTES- “A context effect occurs if a person’s opinion about new technologies depends on subtle differences in the context in which the technology is introduced.”- “Sustainable energy options must therefore be promoted in the right context…”

Ausubel claims to have breached a “taboo” by talking about the “negatives” of renewables. Nobody ever said there are NO negatives associated with renewables. But since you want to talk about negatives, Professor Ausubel, how about these minor drawbacks to nuclear energy (the energy you advocate and call "green")?

(1) Seismic vulnerability (withness the recent episode in Japan); (2) Flooding on the coasts and failure of adequate water supplies inland due to climate change (see CLIMATE CHANGE COULD SINK NUCLEAR);(3) Random electrical and other equipment accidents leading to spills and leaks (see AFTER JAPAN NUKE PANIC, GERMAN NUKE COVERUP, CONSIDER WIND);(4) Terrorist targeting; (5) Weapons-grade nuclear materials proliferation; (6) There is no safe place to dispose of nuclear waste. Yucca Mountain? How many square meters? And how many more square meters if those seismic cracks under it give?

NewEnergyNews acknowledges there will probably be a role for nuclear in the near-term energy equation, but is it really what is best to invest in, long-term?

Even if these statistics were accurate, a dubious proposition, they correct themselves.

By using all forms of renewables, each one requires ¾ less land than Ausubel calculates.

Many solar installations are on building rooftops, many more can be (think of California's "Million Solar Roofs"), and Ausubel does not seem to have considered Concentrating Solar Photovoltaics (CSP), which dramatically increases the yield per meter, or Building Integrated Photovoltaics (BIPV), which will hugely expand the potential of solar in populated areas.

Hydro is mainly from existing dams so there is no need to dam up all of Ontario as Ausubel proposes.

The best and most commonly approved wind energy projects are on farmlands, in already developed terrain or offshore. And turbines are getting larger and more efficient, doubling current yields.

Biofuels come from farm crops, not undeveloped wilderness lands.

Ausubel says New York City would need all of Connecticut for its renewable energy but he reportedly does not even mention wave/tide/current energies, though New York City has already begun using East River tide energy.

The articles say nothing about geothermal.

And Ausubel apparently did not consider efficiency, a vital component in the discussion of renewables.

Also, could someone mention the term “distributed generation” to the professor?

QUOTES-Ausubel: "Nuclear energy is green…Considered in Watts per square meter, nuclear has astronomical advantages over its competitors."-Ausubel: "As a Green, one of my credos is 'no new structures' but renewables all involve ten times or more stuff per kilowatt as natural gas or nuclear…"-Ausubel: "Renewables may be renewable but they are not green…If we want to minimize new structures and the rape of nature, nuclear energy is the best option."

FIRST, anybody who says what is or is not “green” is oversimplifying and probably propagandizing.

SECOND, anybody who begins a point with “As a green…” should not get to finish the point.

THIRD (and put this in the it-only-takes-one category), how many square meters did that radioactive cloud from Chernobyl drift?

Plug-in Hybrids: The Cars that will ReCharge America by Sherry Boschert: "Smart companies plan ahead and try to be the first to adopt new technology that will give them a competitive advantage. That’s what Toyota and Honda did with hybrids, and now they’re sitting pretty. Whichever company is first to bring a good plug-in hybrid to market will not only change their fortune but change the world."

Oil On The Brain; Adventures from the Pump to the Pipeline by Lisa Margonelli: "Spills are one of the costs of oil consumption that don’t appear at the pump. [Oil consultant Dagmar Schmidt Erkin]’s data shows that 120 million gallons of oil were spilled in inland waters between 1985 and 2003. From that she calculates that between 1980 and 2003, pipelines spilled 27 gallons of oil for every billion “ton miles” of oil they transported, while barges and tankers spilled around 15 gallons and trucks spilled 37 gallons. (A ton of oil is 294 gallons. If you ship a ton of oil for one mile you have one ton mile.) Right now the United States ships about 900 billion ton miles of oil and oil products per year."

NOTEWORTHY IN THE MEDIA:
NewEnergyNews would welcome any media-saavy volunteer who would like to re-develop this section of the page. Announcements and reviews of film, television, radio and music related to energy and environmental issues are welcome.

Review of OIL IN THEIR BLOOD, The American Decades by Mark S. Friedman

OIL IN THEIR BLOOD, The American Decades, the second volume of Herman K. Trabish’s retelling of oil’s history in fiction, picks up where the first book in the series, OIL IN THEIR BLOOD, The Story of Our Addiction, left off. The new book is an engrossing, informative and entertaining tale of the Roaring 20s, World War II and the Cold War. You don’t have to know anything about the first historical fiction’s adventures set between the Civil War, when oil became a major commodity, and World War I, when it became a vital commodity, to enjoy this new chronicle of the U.S. emergence as a world superpower and a world oil power.

As the new book opens, Lefash, a minor character in the first book, witnesses the role Big Oil played in designing the post-Great War world at the Paris Peace Conference of 1919. Unjustly implicated in a murder perpetrated by Big Oil agents, LeFash takes the name Livingstone and flees to the U.S. to clear himself. Livingstone’s quest leads him through Babe Ruth’s New York City and Al Capone’s Chicago into oil boom Oklahoma. Stymied by oil and circumstance, Livingstone marries, has a son and eventually, surprisingly, resolves his grievances with the murderer and with oil.

In the new novel’s second episode the oil-and-auto-industry dynasty from the first book re-emerges in the charismatic person of Victoria Wade Bridger, “the woman everybody loved.” Victoria meets Saudi dynasty founder Ibn Saud, spies for the State Department in the Vichy embassy in Washington, D.C., and – for profound and moving personal reasons – accepts a mission into the heart of Nazi-occupied Eastern Europe. Underlying all Victoria’s travels is the struggle between the allies and axis for control of the crucial oil resources that drove World War II.

As the Cold War begins, the novel’s third episode recounts the historic 1951 moment when Britain’s MI-6 handed off its operations in Iran to the CIA, marking the end to Britain’s dark manipulations and the beginning of the same work by the CIA. But in Trabish’s telling, the covert overthrow of Mossadeq in favor of the ill-fated Shah becomes a compelling romance and a melodramatic homage to the iconic “Casablanca” of Bogart and Bergman.

Monty Livingstone, veteran of an oil field youth, European WWII combat and a star-crossed post-war Berlin affair with a Russian female soldier, comes to 1951 Iran working for a U.S. oil company. He re-encounters his lost Russian love, now a Soviet agent helping prop up Mossadeq and extend Mother Russia’s Iranian oil ambitions. The reunited lovers are caught in a web of political, religious and Cold War forces until oil and power merge to restore the Shah to his future fate. The romance ends satisfyingly, America and the Soviet Union are the only forces left on the world stage and ambiguity is resolved with the answer so many of Trabish’s characters ultimately turn to: Oil.

Commenting on a recent National Petroleum Council report calling for government subsidies of the fossil fuels industries, a distinguished scholar said, “It appears that the whole report buys these dubious arguments that the consumer of energy is somehow stupid about energy…” Trabish’s great and important accomplishment is that you cannot read his emotionally engaging and informative tall tales and remain that stupid energy consumer. With our world rushing headlong toward Peak Oil and epic climate change, the OIL IN THEIR BLOOD series is a timely service as well as a consummate literary performance.

Review of OIL IN THEIR BLOOD, The Story of Our Addiction by Mark S. Friedman

"...ours is a culture of energy illiterates." (Paul Roberts, THE END OF OIL)

OIL IN THEIR BLOOD, a superb new historical fiction by Herman K. Trabish, addresses our energy illiteracy by putting the development of our addiction into a story about real people, giving readers a chance to think about how our addiction happened. Trabish's style is fine, straightforward storytelling and he tells his stories through his characters.

The book is the answer an oil family's matriarch gives to an interviewer who asks her to pass judgment on the industry. Like history itself, it is easier to tell stories about the oil industry than to judge it. She and Trabish let readers come to their own conclusions.

She begins by telling the story of her parents in post-Civil War western Pennsylvania, when oil became big business. This part of the story is like a John Ford western and its characters are classic American melodramatic heroes, heroines and villains.

In Part II, the matriarch tells the tragic story of the second generation and reveals how she came to be part of the tales. We see oil become an international commodity, traded on Wall Street and sought from London to Baku to Mesopotamia to Borneo. A baseball subplot compares the growth of the oil business to the growth of baseball, a fascinating reflection of our current president's personal career.

There is an unforgettable image near the center of the story: International oil entrepreneurs talk on a Baku street. This is Trabish at his best, portraying good men doing bad and bad men doing good, all laying plans for wealth and power in the muddy, oily alley of a tiny ancient town in the middle of everywhere. Because Part I was about triumphant American heroes, the tragedy here is entirely unexpected, despite Trabish's repeated allusions to other stories (Casey At The Bat, Hamlet) that do not end well.

In the final section, World War I looms. Baseball takes a back seat to early auto racing and oil-fueled modernity explodes. Love struggles with lust. A cavalry troop collides with an army truck. Here, Trabish has more than tragedy in mind. His lonely, confused young protagonist moves through the horrible destruction of the Romanian oilfields only to suffer worse and worse horrors, until--unexpectedly--he finds something, something a reviewer cannot reveal. Finally, the question of oil must be settled, so the oil industry comes back into the story in a way that is beyond good and bad, beyond melodrama and tragedy.

Along the way, Trabish gives readers a greater awareness of oil and how we became addicted to it. Awareness, Paul Roberts said in THE END OF OIL, "...may be the first tentative step toward building a more sustainable energy economy. Or it may simply mean that when our energy system does begin to fail, and we begin to lose everything that energy once supplied, we won't be so surprised."

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