Christmas in November - Johnny D's Breeders' Cup Picks

by Johnny D

November 1, 2018

Friday and Saturday I’m looking for a slice of Christmas in November. Specifically, the gift-giving and getting aspect of the holiday. You know, presents under the tree. Bulging stockings. Envelopes from relatives stuffed with cash. That sliver of Christmas.

For a moment, forget the Nativity. This November version embraces the heathen angle. In fact, we should call it Cashmas. It’s all about the Benjamins. Although, I suppose, there still will be plenty of praying involved. Maybe more than there is on Christmas.

During this two-day faux holiday you can forget about Johnny Mathis and his chestnuts roasting by an open fire. If he were alive, Bing would get it. As Del Mar co-founder, he’d probably agree to substitute White Christmas—the world’s all-time number-one selling single--with something more along the lines of a ‘Green’ one.

Forget Rudolph’s red nose, too. The November version relies more on the length, not color, of a horse’s shnoz. A slim margin of victory in a tight photo finish will banish the Grinch and welcome Santa and his sack of cash into the house through the front door instead of down the chimney like a common crook.

Below is another gift for you from under the tree. It’s one man’s humble opinion of how the 35th Breeders’ Cup might unfold. Like most Christmas gifts it may be the incorrect size, color, model or…come to think of it…just plain incorrect—for two consecutive days.

If that’s the case, in the spirit of Christmas, just remember: It’s the thought that counts! Merry Cashmas!

Friday, November 2

Race 5 Juvenile Turf Sprint

2 Soldier’s Call - ran against older as a 2-year-old last out in France and nearly won. That’s pretty good.5 Bulletin - won by a block in his only Gulfstream start.10 So Perfect - a 10-1 shot with solid Euro form. Poor post though.4 Stillwater Cove - a 20-1 filly with things to like.3 Well Done - may be a bit ‘overcooked’ in his 10th start this year, but is an exotic consideration at 12-1.

10 Bellafina – One to beat. Must go from outside.2 Serengetti Empress – Won last 2 by over 33 lengths! Wants to lead.7 Jaywalk – Also could get a speeding ticket.8 Sippican Harbor – Stretches out here at 12-1 off solid Spinaway score.

Race 8 Juvenile Turf

Usually a Euro affair, so we’ll lean in that direction.

5 Line of Duty – Improving with each start. First Lasix. 10-19 The Black Album – Worth attention at 30-1 off improving French form.4 Forty Under – Solid US form.14 Anthony Van Dyck – Stuck way outside, 6 starts since July, short price, no thanks.

Race 9 Juvenile

Like with the girls, there’s plenty of early pace in the boys’ version, too.

8 Standard Deviation – Interesting 12-1 shot, had 13-hole routing in last, wide and rallied. More to give. Blinks on for Chad Brown? Check changes.9 Game Winner – Baffert, 2-year-old, short price. Sound familiar?6 Complexity – Speed to lead for a long time.11 Code of Honor – Should be running late.12 Gunmetal Grey – Talented, post no help.

Saturday, November 3

Race 3 Filly & Mare Sprint

Plenty of speed in here, so winner from just off pace.

13 Marley’s Freedom – Should sit the trip from the outside and kick home.5 Golden Mischief – Worked well at CD and won last. Right style for this.11 Finley’sluckycharm – Has won 6 of 7 at CD – has to count for something. Distance not best.

Race 4 Turf Sprint

This race is a buffet of sorts. Choose a Jason Servis or two and add a Peter Miller or two. Please note: 7/2 Favorite Disco Partner does not like a soft turf. It’s Thursday and currently raining in Louisville. So, there’s that.

Servis Speed4 Vision Perfect11 World of Trouble

Miller Speed12 Richard’s Boy14 Conquest Tsunami

Servis Closer6 Rainbow Heir

Miller Closer9 Stormy Liberal

Race 5 Dirt Mile

Longshot Alert!!

1 City of Light (5-2) and 10 Catalina Cruiser (8/5) are the ones to beat in here.

The Dirt Mile, however, has produced some decent upsets. My colleague Jeremy Plonk suggested I investigate 3 Isotherm as a possible shocker. He’s right! 3 Isotherm is a great exotics chance at 20-1. If things get silly, he’s got a chance to win at a huge price. Last out he was in contention with BC Classic favorite Accelerate and West Coast in the Awesome Again. Before that he was widest of all throughout going a mile at Del Mar. At 5, he’s run on dirt just five times in his career—a maiden, a stakes race and 3 Grade 1 races. He’s cutting back in distance – an historic winning formula in this race. Long story short, there’s a lot to like, especially at 20-1!

Race 6 Filly & Mare Turf

Trainer Chad Brown has five starters in this race. They are not created equal. 1 Fourstar Crook and 6 Sistercharlie are his best hopes and either of them wouldn’t be a surprise. 3 Wild Illusion, from the Charlie Appleby yard for Godolphin, is my top pick. She’s just 7-2 odds, so there’s really no scoop involved.

Race 7 Sprint

For a matchup between the best sprinters in the world this race really doesn’t have that much early speed. What’s there is quick, make no mistake, but there’s just not a lot of it. 2 Promises Fulfilled is a very quick 3-year-old. He will make the pace and dare them to come catch him. 5 Imperial Hint is the favorite and an outstanding sprinter, but he’s not as quick as the former runner. 7 Distinctive B will be sent by trainer Peter Miller in an attempt to soften the pace up for stalking defending champ 9 Roy H.

Race 8 Mile

5 Oscar Performance is the only speed…BUT…he hates soft turf and the Churchill weeds should be the consistency of Charmin. Euros haven’t done well in this race, so we’ll go with 2 Next Shares off a nice win at Keeneland and Kentucky Downs before that. 12 Analyze It likes firm and 10 Catapult has solid Del Mar form over firm. 6 Almanaar also likes it firm. But it won’t be firm!!!! That’s it for the home team. 7 Expert Eye is a Euro with an ‘eye’ toward winning this and has looked good training at CD. 8 I Can Fly, a 3-year-old filly, finished second to Roaring Lion last out. 11 Lightning Spear is just 2 for his last 13 but has faced the best for a few years. 14 Mustashry has good paper but is stuck in a terrible post. 4 Polydream is a 5-1 Euro invader with lots of backing.

Race 9 Distaff

If the real 2 Abel Tasman shows up, it’s over. But there’s serious doubt about that happening. Her last race was too ugly to be believed. She’ll really have to bounce back in a hurry. 11 Monomoy Girl has speed and will use it from the far outside post. She’s had a long year and has a few quirks. 10 Blue Prize is a warrior that always shows up. She’s a nice key. 7 Midnight Bisou, another 3-year-old, seems to be coming up to a big one. She got closer to 11 Monomoy Girl at Parx last out.

Race 10 Turf

2 Enable attempts to become the first Arc winner to capture the Turf in the same year. She’s different than the rest, though, because she’s only had 2 races this year and is fresh. Former Arc winners ventured to Breeders’ Cup as an afterthought. 2 Enable is a special racehorse and should not lose. 3 Channel Maker has a pace advantage over a soft course. Contender 4 Robert Bruce does not like soft turf. 12 Waldgeist is serious threat from a terrible post position.

Race 11 Classic

Horse by Horse Analysis followed by Suggested $100 Wager Strategy

1 Thunder Snow – Blew out for this race and was asked a bit. He fell into a perfect trip last out and couldn’t hold off Discreet Lover. These are tougher.2 Roaring Lion – Don’t think the trainer wanted to come to BC with this one. First time dirt. Not for me.3 Catholic Boy – Travers winner looks sensational. Top 3-year-old versus older. Should run well.4 Gunnevera – He’s had chances before and seems just a cut below the top.5 Lone Sailor – No early speed and will need something crazy to happen up front.6 McKinzie – Like Catholic Boy, at the top of the 3yo division. Trained by Baffert, should run well.7 West Coast – Baffert’s other runner at 4 has faced the best competition of anyone in the field. He needed his most recent race and Baffert’s leaned on him in the mornings since. Expect his best Saturday and that might be good enough.8 Pavel – Tough to figure. Biggest race of his career came at Churchill, but that’s about his only real highlight.9 Mendelssohn – 3yo has plenty of speed but rarely finishes what he starts. Except for that one night in Dubai when he freaked.10 Yoshida – Like Catholic Boy he switched from turf to dirt and exploded! He’s a gorgeous animal that will be running from behind in a race with some decent pace. However, going off just one dirt win is difficult for this horseplayer.11 Mind Your Biscuits – He’s a throwback. Has won a Grade 1 sprinting and routing. A real achievement. He’s going to be in a great spot in this race, just behind several frontrunners. He’s also got a nice win over the track. Count him in the mix.12 Axelrod – Another 3-year-old, he’s not quite as good as some of his classmates. However, jot his name down. He’s improving and will make some noise down the road.13 Discreet Lover – Every dog has his day and that’s apparently true of horses, too. He got a great pace setup last out to capture a Grade 1 and complete a Cinderella story.14 Accelerate – He’s favored and the most accomplished runner in the field. However, there are reasons not to rush to wager on him. Post 14 is not ideal. His last race was less than exciting. At this writing his trainer is 0-43 with Breeders’ Cup starters and 2-29 the last 5 years in graded stakes races outside of California. That’s a lot to swallow at 5-2 odds.

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11.3.2017

For the last few weeks, this space has been dedicated to handicapping discussions regarding the fast approaching Breeders’ Cup. Well, that train has just about reached the station. And, if you haven’t already attempted to unravel any of the 13 mysteries masquerading as Breeders’ Cup events, what are you waiting for?
While we don’t know final starting lineups or post positions for BC races, reviewing pre-entry past performances in advance can help to relieve inevitable pressure when the post time clock begins to tick-tock. One hugely popular and effective way to prepare for the races at Del Mar Friday, Nov. 3 & Saturday, Nov. 4 is to access a copy of Xpressbet’s FREE Breeders’ Cup Wager Guide. Inside you’ll find expert Analysis, Main Contenders, Value Plays and suggested $100 Wagering Strategies. Additionally, the Guide contains valuable Stats & Trends and 'Know This' material for each Breeders’ Cup event.
Xpressbet has recruited top writers, broadcasters and handicappers to share opinions with guide readers—both early and late. A first edition Guide is available now at Xpressbet.com—a full week in advance of BC —and updates will be posted daily beginning Tuesday, Oct. 31. A revised version of the guide will be available Thursday, Nov. 2.
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As with past issues, SiriusXM At the Races host Steve Byk covers the Classic. NBC Sports veteran handicapper Bob Neumeier (Juvenile & Mile) is back to join XBTV.com stalwarts Jeff Siegel (Juvenile Turf & Turf), Millie Ball (Juvenile Fillies Turf & Filly & Mare Turf) and former jockey Richard Migliore (Distaff & Turf Sprint). Eclipse Award winning writer and Daily Racing Form columnist Dick Jerardi (Dirt Mile & Sprint) and Xpressbet.com handicapper and blogger Brian Nadeau (Juvenile Fillies & F & M Sprint) round out the initial guide team. NBC Sports handicapper Eddie Olczyk will contribute his Classic analysis in the revised guide version available Thursday, Nov. 2. Yours truly will contribute to daily updates and offer race selections and analysis in this space Thursday, Nov. 2.
This is the 14th edition of Xpressbet’s FREE Breeders’ Cup Wager Guide and that longevity says something. Actually, it says a few things. First, that players love using the Guide. The response is tremendous and the number of users continues to grow. It’s the best way under the sun for horseplayers to gain a quick understanding of each BC race. Second, Xpressbet is proud to publish the Guide and wants everyone to have a copy—account holders and non-account holders alike. We’re in the business of accepting wagers and the more informed horseplayers are the better the chance they’ll win money and return to wager even more. Non-account holders who appreciate solid wagering information are likely to access the guide and then return to open an account.
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Horseplayernow.com’s Jeremy Plonk contributes assorted angles to illuminate each division. For example: Did you know that California-based runners in the F&M Turf are 0-40? Don’t know how that’s possible, especially with all the great turf trainers and horses in the Golden State since the race’s origin in 1999, but that’s a fact serious horseplayers ought to know. Cal-based, Avenge, a Del Mar turf course lover, is back again this season in an attempt to improve upon her third-place finish in this race last year.
Were you aware that just 1 of the last 9 BC Turf winners had raced exclusively in the US? Little Mike (2012) is the exception.
Also, were you aware that favorites in the BC Juvenile have lost 4 of the last 5 editions and 5 of the last 6? Will anticipated heavy race favorite Bolt d’Oro stem that tide by enhancing a trend that reminds California-based youngsters have won 3 of the last 4 Juveniles?
Those are just a few samples of the great information you’ll find in Xpressbet’s FREE Breeders’ Cup Wager Guide. Each race has several key trends you’ll want to know before you wager.
It’s understood that such trends, much like track records, are established in order to be broken. And, as any horseplayer knows, no handicapping angle works 100% of the time. However, when you’re betting hard-earned money on the races you want to make sure you’ve got the bases covered and Xpressbet’s FREE Breeders’ Cup Wager Guide can help achieve that goal.
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After that, all you need is to get lucky!
Race On!

3.14.2019

As the once popular Billy Idol song reminds, “With a rebel yell she cried, more, more, more.” Someone with ‘weight’ at Oaklawn Park must have been listening because this year we’ve got two divisions of the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes with 19 total runners, including unbeaten 2-year-old champ Game Winner and 3-for-3 stablemate Improbable. Turns out Santa Anita’s loss—a cancelled San Felipe Stakes-- is Oaklawn’s gain as no less than 8 SoCal-based 3-year-olds—4 in each division—will contest the Rebel. Each half is worth $750,000, with from 37.5 to 3.75 Kentucky Derby starting gate points to the top four finishers. For the last two weeks, in this space, we’ve taken correct stances against short-priced favorites and outlined reasons for pessimism—Hidden Scroll in the Xpressbet.com Fountain of Youth and Instagrand in the Gotham Stakes. Last week, in the latter race, we connected on a suggested $18 trifecta wager that returned $104.24 for a buck. We misfired with a $24 suggested Tampa Bay Derby trifecta play that included the first three finishers but in the incorrect order—as valuable as a wax furnace. This week appears to be a different story. Bob Baffert-trained runners own the Rebel Stakes and this year might win both divisions. Improbable is 6-5 favorite in the first half and Game Winner is the identical morning-line price to take the second. Don't forget, the Rebel Stakes is part of Xpressbet's Money Back on the Preps promotion. Both divisions of the Rebel are eligible for this offer, so definitely give it a look. Here’s one man’s opinion of Rebel runners, including several suggested Trifecta wagers: The Rebel Stakes, Grade 2 (First Division) 1. Extra Hope (Mandella/Smith) - 6/1 This son of Shanghai Bobby broke maiden in his fourth start. He was well-beaten in 2 stakes after that before rebounding with a strong effort in an allowance race at Santa Anita. That race was over a ‘sloppy’ track, so there’s a question about how well he will handle a dry Oaklawn strip. He was 8 lengths behind Improbable in the Los Alamitos Futurity. Expect him to save ground along the rail and possibly muster some late run to finish in the tri or super. He’s improving and that’s a positive 3-year-old factor but those 4 tries to break maiden are a bit bothersome. ‘Hope loses partner Flavien Prat to #8 Galilean, but Hall-of-Famer Mike Smith is a more than capable replacement. 2. Long Range Toddy (Asmussen/Court) - 10/1 This son of Take Charge Indy tries every time. That’s a fine attribute for a racehorse. He’s got enough speed to be in front of Extra Hope into the first turn and to establish position along the rail for a ground-saving trip. He’s improved in each race and another forward move puts him in the exacta or trifecta. He had trouble last out—was blocked through the lane—but finished with interest when clear. He may not be as talented as a few of the others, but he’s a gamer. 3. Corruze (Hartman/Elliott) - 30/1 This will be his first try over a ‘fast’ main track. He’s had three turf races with two wins to his credit. He also has finished sixth over a ‘sloppy’ track. He will need to move up dramatically on a ‘fast’ track to have an impact. He might, but we wouldn’t bet on it. 4. Easy Shot (Desormeaux/Eramia) - 15/1 This Trappe Shot offspring is steadily improving but will need to make another forward jump to have a say in this outcome. His lone win came for an $80k maiden tag. He was fifth and third in a pair of Grade 3 stakes at Santa Anita—with some trouble in each. Additional improvement could get him a small slice of this at a decent price. He has a pair of bullet works over the Santa Anita training track (:49 gd) and at San Luis Rey (1:12 3/5). 5. Proud Nation (Sharp/Cabrera) - 50/1 He’s a maiden and seems overmatched in his second start for trainer Joe Sharp after beginning his career in the Steve Asmussen barn. 6. Ninth Street (Asmussen/Santana) - 50/1 He has no speed and is making his ninth career start—tops in the field. He’s won two races—both at Delta Downs at just under a mile. He finished ninth in the Grade 3 Southwest. He has no speed. This is a huge step up. 7. Classy John (Stewart/Cohen) - 15/1 This Louisiana -bred has speed and finished second beaten a neck in the state-bred Premium Prince going a mile at Delta Downs last out. These are tougher. He’s a very consistent—3 wins and 2 seconds in 5 starts. There’s not a whole lot of speed in this race, so he could hang around up front for a small slice at a huge price. Trainer Dallas Stewart has a reputation for hitting the board in stakes races with huge longshots. However, those bombs usually have been detonated by closers. 8. Galilean (Hollendorfer/Prat) - 3/1 Here’s an interesting Cal-bred son of Uncle Mo. He’s won 3 of 4 starts—all against state-breds. He’s got speed and should challenge Classy John early. Patient, young jock Flavien Prat stays here instead of aboard #1 Extra Hope—both open-length winners last out. Hall of Fame trainer Jerry Hollendorfer seems to have this one ready to do his best. Unlike favored #9 Improbable, Galilean has had a recent race while winning the Cal Cup Derby at Santa Anita. Don’t know if he’s good enough to handle #9 Improbable but he catches the favorite off a layoff and stuck on the far outside. Those are advantages for Galilean, logical second choice in the race. 9. Improbable (Baffert/Van Dyke) - 3/5 The heavy favorite is trained by Hall of Famer Bob Baffert and will be ridden by up-and-coming star jock Drayden Van Dyke, partners in each of three starts—all wins. Improbable will sit second or third on the outside, a position he successfully maintained in the Los Alamitos Futurity. That day, when Van Dyke asked the question, Improbable responded emphatically. He hasn’t started since that Dec. 8 afternoon, but Baffert may be the best in the universe in getting one ready off a layoff. The son of City Zip has worked well for his return—every 5 to 7 days—with a bullet six furlongs in 1:12 at Santa Anita. The Arcadia track closure forced the cancellation of the San Felipe Stakes and sent Improbable to Los Alamitos for a :59 1/5 final work over a glib strip. He was a handful to pull up afterwards—a good sign. Solidly, he’s the one to beat. One to Beat: #9 Improbable Figures Close: #8 Galilean, #2 Long Range Toddy Could Run Well: #1 Extra Hope, #4 Easy Shot, #7 Classy Shot Suggested $2 Trifecta Wager ($16) 1st - 9 2nd - 2, 8 3rd - 1, 2, 4, 7, 8 Additional $1 Trifecta Wager ($20) 1st - 9 2nd - 1, 2, 4, 7, 8 3rd - 1, 2, 4, 7, 8 The Rebel Stakes, Grade 2 (Second Division) 1. Market King (Lukas/Velazquez) - 30/1 This colt has a maiden victory at this track and distance over a ‘good’ surface. That was his fifth start in a maiden race. He returned in an allowance sprint and finished a close third after forcing the early pace. Expect him to go to the front immediately and to ride the rail. He’s got a bullet five-furlong work 1:01 1/5 on March 8. #4 Jersey Agenda probably will force the pace outside of him. Market King jumped forward last out but needs to go faster to be a factor. 2. Laughing Fox (Asmussen/Santana) - 10/1 This son of Union Rags has won his last two starts—maiden and first-level allowance races--at this track and distance. Those are positive factors. ‘Fox comes from off the pace and there’s not much early speed in here, so he’ll be up against it from a style perspective. His last victory was a massive improvement over previous efforts, so there’s concern about if he can duplicate that off short rest. He has improved in each start and that’s always a positive sign in a developing 3-year-old. Big price and maybe worth inclusion in lower rungs of exotics. 3. Parsimony (O'Neill/Gutierrez) - 30/1 Blinkers go on for this runner and he’d really be a surprise in the winner’s circle. After 7 starts he’s still a maiden with 4 seconds. He exits a runner-up finish going a mile and one-eighth on turf at Santa Anita. He’s fit but doesn’t have much speed in an apparently pace-less race. A lot to ask. 4. Jersey Agenda (Asmussen/Ortiz) - 15/1 One of the few speed horses in this field, the son of Jersey Town—a $3,000 sire—sold for $250k at Ocala as a 2-year-old. He’s quick early but caved last out in the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes. He’ll need to rebound from that effort and move forward quite a bit to threaten. 5. Game Winner (Baffert/Rosario) - 4/5 Unbeaten, untied and unscored upon in 4 starts, the 2-year-old champ makes his sophomore debut in the Rebel as the heavy favorite. He’s trained steadily for this race—every 5 to 7 days. However, all of his works have not been sparkling. Stablemate Improbable, favored in the first division, has worked better than Game Winner on occasion. Still, Game Winner has the fastest races on Thoro-Graph sheets. Has he matured since the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile or will he become one of an illustrious group of 2-year-old champs that have failed to improve as sophs? He comes from off the pace and needs to be ridden like a bicycle—jockey Rosario must keep pedaling for him to maintain his determined run. 6. Omaha Beach (Mandella/Smith) - 7/2 This son of War Front has been extremely popular in the wagering—favored in all 5 starts. Last out, he finally broke maiden by nine lengths over a ‘sloppy’ track going 7 furlongs. Did the wet track move him up or did the light finally go on? As with Extra Hope in the first division, Mike Smith takes over for Prat in the saddle. In tit-for-tat fashion Prat replaces Smith aboard #8 Gunmetal Gray. Omaha Beach has been second 3 times with 1 third. If he converts his ‘off’ track performance to a fast track, he fits. If not, a minor award seems most likely. 7. Our Braintrust (Casse/Cohen) - 6/1 Maryland-bred Our Braintrust finished third in a 3-horse Grade 3 Withers finish, a neck behind victor Tax. That was at a mile and one-eighth, so he will cut back a sixteenth of a mile in here. He’s fit, reasonably fast and adding blinkers for his second start for Hall-of-Fame nominee Mark Casse—a 19% move for the trainer. Previously, the son of Freud raced for Cathal Lynch. ‘Braintrust is solid--5 starts, 2 wins, 2 seconds and a third. It should be noted that both of his wins came in his first two career starts at four and one-half and five and one-half furlongs! 8. Gunmetal Gray (Hollendorfer/Prat) - 10/1 The son of Exchange Rate has faced #5 Game Winner twice before and hasn’t finished within 4 lengths of that foe. What’s liable to change this time? ‘Grey is improving, and #5 Game Winner is coming off a layoff. Is that enough to close the gap? Probably not. ‘Grey has no speed in a race that lacks early pace, a negative for him. However, he has a top jock and keeps coming in the lane, so he could pass a few to get a slice. 9. Kaziranga (Asmussen/Eramia) - 50/1 Blinkers go on for this Asmussen runner—one of four from that barn in this division. Makes sense that he and others may have been entered specifically to expand field size in order to accommodate a split of the race at 19 entrants. Don’t see him threatening. 10. Captain Von Trapp (Asmussen/Vazquez) - 15/1 The hills may be alive but the ‘Captain and his family seem up against it in here. He’s been favored in 4 out of 5 starts with 2 wins and 2 seconds. He has no early speed, so he’ll need to drop back and attempt to close late. There’s not much speed in here, so those tactics might be futile. A big plus for him is that he’s 2-for-2 over the Oaklawn main. One to Beat: #5 Game Winner One That Might Do It: #7 Our Braintrust Worth Exotic Looks: #2 Laughing Fox, #6 Omaha Beach, #8 Gunmetal Gray Suggested $1 Trifecta Ticket ($24) 1st - 5, 7 2nd - 2, 5, 6, 7, 8 3rd - 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 Additional $1 Trifecta Ticket ($16) 1st - 5 2nd - 2, 6, 7, 8 3rd - 2, 4, 6, 7, 8 Race On!