Let the price wars begin

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Major retailers reported mostly weak sales gains for last month, a sign that the recent retreat in gas prices didn't really help buoy consumer spending in October.

"I'm not a believer that gas prices sway consumer spending," said Marshal Cohen, chief retail analyst with market research firm NPD Group. "But yes, when I hear that my house today costs less than it did last year, that will impact my spending."

Analysts expect sales at big retailers rose about 3.4 percent last month on average, excluding new stores, well below the 4.3 percent gain in the same month a year ago, according to Thomson Financial.

Bernard Sands retail analyst Richard Hastings wrote in a report Thursday that retailers were up against some strong results from a year ago.

At Costco, (Charts) for example, U.S. comparable sales were up 10 percent last October. But sales at the warehouse club operator rose just 4 percent last month, weaker than the 4.7 percent increase Wall Street had expected.

"Typically we see a two-year subcycle, with a couple of strong year-over-year increases and then some statistical backlash," Hastings wrote. "We should see some of this in [today's numbers] while keeping our eyes on big ticket and non-apparel sales trends."

In the specialty arena, No. 1 apparel seller Gap Inc. (Charts) logged a 7 percent dip in October same-store sales. The miss was wider than the 2.4 percent decline analysts had estimated.

Women's apparel retailer Chico's FAS (Charts) reported a 4.1 percent drop in same-store sales. CEO Scott Edmonds said the company was "disappointed" with the result.

Consequently, Chico's cut its third-quarter earnings forecast to a range that's below current average forecasts on Wall Street, according to First Call.

"Retailers will be even more competitive and promotional and throw caution to the wind. Retailers will now go after volume and not profits," NPD's Cohen said. "Because of this, we'll probably see a recovery and strong sales numbers through December."

October wasn't a dismal month for everyone, however. High-end merchant Nordstrom (Charts) proved once again that its merchandise and service pleases customers. The department store chain posted a strong 10.7 percent gain in same-store sales last month.

Elsewhere, sales at stores open at least a year jumped 8.1 percent at J.C. Penney (Charts), indicating strong demand for seasonal clothing and accessories.