Edward Fitzpatrick: Which Cranston mayor has the better shot at being governor?

Thursday

May 23, 2013 at 12:01 AM

They’re both Republicans who’ve served as mayor of Cranston, and they both might be running for a governor’s seat in 2014. But back-to-back interviews provided a reminder that Stephen P. Laffey and Allan...

They’re both Republicans who’ve served as mayor of Cranston, and they both might be running for a governor’s seat in 2014. But back-to-back interviews provided a reminder that Stephen P. Laffey and Allan W. Fung have sharply different styles.

Laffey, the former Cranston mayor who announced on Tuesday that he’s running for governor of Colorado, delivered a brash blast from the past — passionate, pugnacious and conservative. At one point, Laffey (who moved to Colorado in 2010) said Governor Chafee (his opponent in a bitter 2006 U.S. Senate primary) “has been a total, miserable failure.”

Fung, the current Cranston mayor who is “taking a serious look at” running for governor of Rhode Island, came across as far more low-key, tightly controlled and moderate. When asked about Laffey’s announcement, he replied, “All I will say is: Very interesting.”

So which one is more likely to win a governor’s seat next year?

Well, consider that Nate Silver’s blog analyzed job-approval polls in April to determine which governors are most vulnerable in 2014. Chafee, a Republican-turned-independent, topped the list with a net job-approval rating of minus-40 (28 percent approve/68 percent disapprove), while Democratic Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper was fourth most popular, with a net rating of 33 (61 percent approve/28 percent disapprove).

Eric Sondermann, a Denver-based independent political analyst, said, “Most people still regard the governor’s race as a bit of a fool’s errand, or at least a severely uphill climb, given that Hickenlooper is highly popular.” And while it’s not a “bright blue” state like Rhode Island, Colorado has turned “at least periwinkle blue” over the past decade, he said.

Still, Sondermann said, “I can see Laffey getting some significant traction within the Republican Party. From what I’ve heard, he’s able to articulate a conservative message in a fairly pure form, with energy and eloquence. And in what is shaping up to be a weak Republican field, I could see him being an attractive alternative.” (Other potential GOP candidates include former U.S. Rep. Tom Tancredo and Secretary of State Scott Gessler.)

Sondermann said it remains to be seen whether Laffey “flames out early” amid “carpetbagger” charges, or catches fire “with a passionate, conservative message.”

Meanwhile, the Rhode Island governor’s race is rapidly taking shape. On Thursday, Democrat Ernest A. Almonte announced he’ll run for treasurer instead of governor. On Friday, Republican Brendan P. Doherty announced he won’t run for governor. And on Tuesday, the Moderate Party’s Kenneth J. Block announced he’ll run for governor again.

Doherty’s decision appears to clear the way for Fung to be the GOP candidate in a four-way race with Chafee, Block and a high-profile Democrat such as Providence Mayor Angel Taveras or General Treasurer Gina M. Raimondo.

While this is a blue state, Fung noted Rhode Islanders have elected fiscal conservatives. And while Raimondo has raised $1.7 million, he noted Republican John F. Robitaille trailed in fundraising but came close to winning a four-way governor’s race in 2010. “It can be anyone’s ballgame,” Fung said.

Indeed, Laffey appears to face a steeper climb in the Rockies than Fung does on Smith Hill.