Global Markets: Grains – World Supply and Use to Expand

For 2019/20, global corn production is projected up with larger area in many countries. For key exporters, crops for Argentina and Brazil are projected at record levels, while Ukraine and the United States reach nearrecord crops. Global consumption continues to outpace production driven by higher feed use, particularly for growth in poultry production.

Corn for non-feed use also expands, primarily driven by growth in China. With larger consumption, global trade is expected to expand. Global ending stocks are projected down at the world level as a decline in China more than offsets stock-building outside of China.

For 2019/20, global wheat production is forecast up with larger crops in most major exporting countries. Production for Argentina, Australia, Canada, the European Union, Russia, and Ukraine are all forecast higher than theprevious year. Food consumption continues to rise due to changing diets and growing incomes, especially in developing regions of Asia and Africa.

Feed and residual use is expected to be higher this year on lower prices from large global wheat supplies. With consumption and production up, trade is also forecast higher. Global ending stocks are forecast to grow as well, with China continuing to account for about half of the total.

For 2019/20, global rice production is forecast down with smaller crops in top-producing countries China and India. In contrast, global consumption is forecast to rise, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa where affordable Asian rice is growing as a staple for a rising population. Global trade is forecast at a near-record level, with India continuing to dominate exports.

Notably, while China is the top importer, it has also grown in prominence as a significant exporter. Global stocks are up, with China accounting for 68 percent of the total. The increase in stocks, both globally and in China, is the smallest in a decade.