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There’s been a lot of noise about what happened in Balakot on 26th Feb 2019 and on LoC on 27th Feb. There were lots of claims from both sides but nothing definite. Indian officials were tight lipped and issued only terse statements , while Pakistanis released one statement after another. Media reports from both sides were as usual quite trashy and more noise than substance. In all this noise, there were some recordings, witness statements and less publicised events which provide some hints about what actually happened. There is some new information coming out almost every day and it’s a difficult task to do detailed fact checks and connect all the dots. Following is an attempt to find some answers based upon some of the facts which are seemingly true. This part covers just the Balakot strikes on 26th Feb. If I have some time, I’ll write something about events of next day.

26th Feb. 2:55 am : A Indian Air Force strike team consisting solely of Mirage 2000 fighter jets attacked a JeM terrorist training camp in Balakot in Khyber Phaktunwa province across international border. There were reports of 2 other targets, Chakoti and Muzaffarabad in Pakistan being hit, but no confirmations from either side. But both sides are in agreement that Balakot was bombed.

India announced the attacks later in the day via an official statement made by Vijay Gokhale, Secretary, Ministry of External Affairs

Pakistani Claims:

Pakistanis on the other hand made a number of mutually contradictory claims.

“Pakistani National Security Committee strongly rejected Indian claim of targeting an alleged terrorist camp near Balakot and the claim of heavy casualties. Once again Indian government has resorted to a self-serving, reckless and fictitious claim,” 1* 2*

Pakistan foreign minister Qureshi said “multi-dimensional intrusion” had been attempted by the Indian fighter jets early on Tuesday. “But the intervention by Pakistani jets forced them to return back within minutes,” he said. The minister dismissed the notion that Pakistan Air Force jets were late in responding to the Indian attack, saying the planes were “ready” and “air-borne”. 2*

Director-general of Pakistan’s Inter Services Public Relations, Maj. Gen. Asif Ghafoor, said India had “attempted” to send its combat air patrols (CAPs) “first from the Lahore-Sialkot sector” and they were “challenged” by Pakistani CAP. “They tried to enter from Bahawalpur-Okara and were forced to go back,” he said. According to Ghafoor, “the third (Indian) CAP which was bigger in number made it from Muzaffarabad and they were challenged and were forced to return”. 2*

Pakistani Army confirmed attack on Twitter with pictures of craters outside the terrorist training facility. They claimed that bombs missed target and damaged only one civilian who suffered a gash on his forehead and a few trees. “Payload of hastily escaping Indian aircrafts fell in open. pic.twitter.com/8drYtNGMsm”

This video shows house of a local “civilian” close to the terrorist camp. It is a bit odd as it shows a small crater about 25-30 meters downhill and narrator claims that the whole house has been severely damaged.

Some Pakistanis also claimed that the building complex in Balakot was just a madarssa and nothing was damaged.

At the same time, Pakistan has cordoned off whole area and physically stopped journalists from visiting the place. If there was no damage or dead bodies and if there were n terrorists, then what is the point of stopping journalist ? 3*

Actual Proofs:

Following are some videos and pictures which tell a different story.

This video was uploaded on 8th March by a Pakistani media outlet. It shows a senior Pakistani army officer in a village meeting consoling family members of some (200) dead people. Some roughly translated lines below:

Whoever fights alongside rulers of land in name of jihad is fighting for jihad.

Yesterday 200 people died. It was written in their fate, not ours.

Your father is not dead, he is alive. We don’t call him dead,

So this Pakistani army man is definitely admitting that 200 or more “good jihadis” got killed in one go.

2. Indian government and armed forces have release very little information till now. Maybe it’ll change later as it did with Uri strikes. But as of now, one major statement made is that Indian intelligence had detected around 300 mobile phone signals in the terrorist camp. 4*

3. Following interview with some locals deflate official Pakistani claims

a. Access to whole area has been completely blocked off for outsiders as well as locals.

b. Pakistani authorities are prohibiting any information leaks. For this, they’ve blocked internet, enforced no go zones and are actively warning people against talking to anyone.

4. BBC Urdu interviewed a local resident who claimed to have heard atleast 5 huge explosions. But Pakistanis have released pictures of only 1 crater site, which by the way doesn’t seem to be a crater made by a high explosive bomb.

5. BBC interview of some locals confirming that all flow of information and regular movement of even civilians has been blocked by Pakistani army

What Happened :

Following are my guesses based upon available information:

IAF Mirage 2000s did attack atleast one target at Balakot. Other two possible targets were Chakoti and Muzaffarabad. Both are near to LoC in J&K

Earlier reports said that terrorist camp was hit using “1000 kg bombs”. Later it was revealed to be Spice, which is actually a guidance kit for 2000, 1000 and 500 pound bombs in Indian inventory. I believe that it was Spice 1000 used for 1000 lbs (450 kg) bombs which can have 200 kgs of high explosives. A single 1000 kg bomb will have around 450 kgs of explosives which will blow off most of hill top. Considering that avoiding collateral damage was one major mission objective, it’s unlikely that 1000 kg bombs were used.

According to local witness accounts, 4-5 bombs were dropped. It should be pretty obvious that these smart bombs usually don’t miss. Even if we believe story of that single injured civilian whose house was damaged, there are still 3-4 other bombs which found their mark. Their impact points have not been made public by Pakistan and access blocked off.

There have been atleast 200 causalities including some terrorists, their trainers as well as regular Pakistani army. Pakistan is doing everything in it’s power to hide it. We’ll have to wait for more information to be released by Indian government to have a reasonably accurate number and actual impact.

Comments: PAF base Mushaf in Sargodha, Punjab is one of more important military establishments for multiple reasons:

It is Central air command of PAF. It also houses Combat Commanders School which has Skybolts flying Dassault Mirage 111/5 and Dashings currently flying Chengdu F.7P. These can be seen parked out in open often.

Number 9 and 19 Squadrons with F-16A/B Block 15. Unlike Mirage and F7 mentioned above, F-16s spend most of their time in hardened shelters.

Comments: This seems to be a pretty nondescript patch of land with only a few interesting features. Runway length is 900 m, which makes it pretty unusable for most combat aircraft. There seems to be no civilian infrastructure or civil flights. This is more like a big village or a very small town.

Only interesting thing that I was able to find that Lora Lai is one of primary training centers for Frontier Corps which is mostly involved in operations in Balochistan.

I had an Adruino kit lying around for a long time but never did anything with it. Few days back I bought a few sensors and started to build a pollution sensor system consisting of atleast two sensors for now and multiple ways of monitoring. I don’t know any programing and most of the code is copied from different sources and modified wherever required to suit my requirements. As I worked, it became clear that it is not as easy job, so this project is going to be split in to multiple steps.

This project uses two different sensors, a simple MQ135 and a Sharp GP2Y1010. Data sheets are easily available on internet, but for quick reading here are short descriptions:

MQ135: It is a simple sensor used to measure presence of some common pollutants like NH3, NOx, Alcohol, Benzene, Smoke, CO2. It has 4 pins, two for power supply and 2 for analog and digital readings.

Sharp GP2Y1010 is an optical dust sensor which measures the volume of suspended dust particles in air by using a LED and phototransistor. It has 6 pins.

BASICS:

1 POWER SUPPLY: As of now, Adruino is powered by a USB cable connected to PC. I also have a 9V compatible power supply which can be used once it’s disconnected from PC. I have a old powered USB hub which I plan to use in order to supply a 5V supply later to some components which will be added later. This may be necessary as some components seem to require a bit more power than what is good for accurate readings.

2. ADRUINO : A basic Adruino Uno board.

3. BASE: As of now, I am using breadboard for prototyping stage. If everything goes well, I may rebuild it in a more permanent way.

4. OUTPUT: All the output is being sent to Serial Monitor of Arduino programming interface. A LCD screen and an internet server interface will be added later.

As the voltage level fluctuates the dust density readings change accordingly. I burnt a small piece of paper to see if reading schange and they did.

MAXIMUM VALUE

To get maximum values, I inserted a piece of rolled paper to block the sensor. Voltage readings jump to their maximum value, 3.69 volts and output dust reading is 0.53 at it’s maximum corresponding value.

By themselves, both sensors work fine. The readings seem to be consistent with environmental conditions and change with changing level of pollutants like smoke.

TO BE DONE:

Attach a LCD screen and output the reading directly to it without use of PC.

Adding and configuring a WiFi module to upload data to an online monitoring application.

PROBLEMS TO BE SOLVED:

There is a noticeable change in readings if both sensors are used at same time. Adruino doesn’t seem to be able to supply same amount of voltage to multiple components. It will affect readings adversely when more components like LCD screen are added. Perhaps use of a separate power source, like a powered USB hub supplying 5 V will help.

I don’t know of any way to properly calibrate the sensors. These are just the raw readings and may not be entirely accurate. I have not figured out a way to address this issue yet.

Life style habits of an average citizen who is very concerned about the environment and effects of Diwali fireworks:

1. Water : Pre-packaged bottled water. Plastic bottle thrown away after one use. Single use plastic cups in offices and elsewhere. Because carrying water from home or filter is too inconvenient.

2. Fruit & Vegetables : Usually bought from departmental stores which wrap them nicely in styrofoam and plastic sheets. Will not buy it from normal vendors because packaging looks better and “retains freshness”.

3. Favourite food : Definitely going to eat meat. Vegetarian food is so boring. Who cares about stress on environment due to meat industry ! Food : Home delivered in plastic containers. Thrown away the same day. Milk, Bought in plastic bags.

4. Transport : Mostly more polluting diesel engined cars bought because it is cheaper than petrol. Minimal use of public transport. Because walking and public transport is for poor.

5. Love for trees : Never planted a tree whole life. Paid bribes to govt departments just to cut down the trees in front of house to get extra space for parking. Also because trees shed too many leaves and have to pay sweeper extra to remove those.

6. Plants at home: Almost all fake, made of plastic. Because real plants require too much care and effort.

7. Shopping : Will always demand a polythene bag for every purchase. Because carrying own bag is so uncool.

But bursting fireworks on Diwali on night is more polluting than 365 days of such touching concern for environment.

One has to be a special type of hypocrite to whine so much while doing so little.

This is my 2nd article in the series of articles which analyse the work of Modi government starting from 2014 till present date. This one is about administration and governance. Unlike the first one on defence, it is not that binary and there are quite a few gray areas and is subject to opinions as much it is to facts. For example, I like how NGOs have been brought under tougher checks and a lot of such organisations have been forced to shut shop. But quite a few people view it as unfair. Additionally, there is an overlap between governance issues and various others like economy, foreign policy etc. In this article, focus will will be on the work done or changes in way of working of central government ministries and departments. Some of these will be mentioned in next article which will be about economy issues.

1. Steps for leaner, responsive and more efficient government.

This is the most obvious, yet hardest things to do for any regime. All the decisions made by the politically elected government are implemented by officials who usually see multiple such governments come and go through their service. It is next to impossible to fire or even penalise them for even gross incompetence. Any reform in their way of working is extremely hard and takes years of sustained effort. Political and ideological differences even among ministers also play their part. Then there are politicians who have a mutually beneficial nexus with such officials even when they are out of power. Some of the first steps taken by Modi regime was to break this nexus and it seems to have succeeded partially. But there is still a long way to go.

GOOD

Squatters from govt properties removed

1. Officials working for central government have been forced to work much harder, so much so that many now view these prestigious jobs as punishment postings. Many non-performing officers have been disciplined and even sacked, a first. 1* 2* 29* 68* 112* 118* 132*
2. Even serving ministers have been forced to adopt austerity measures. Some examples are no new vehicles, reduced travel expenses 11*13* 71* 125*
3. Influence of foreign interests, corporates and their lobbyists has been severely curtailed. Many “powerful” people who had a lot of influence in various ministries and govt departments now don’t have insider knowledge or influence over decision making. 26* 63* 75*
4. Many politicians squatting on government properties have been forced to vacate them. List of more than 1500 such squatters includes many former ministers, MLAs, MPs and many so called artists, inetellectuals who have been staying in govt allotted properties long after their time was over. Even BJP run state governments have evacuated have evacuated former CMs and MLAs. 61* 65* 104* 108* 109* 113*
5. Business of paid for postings and transfers in many central govt departments has been severely curtailed. 7* 105*
6. Many useless posts have been abolished and major departments downsized and streamlined. Often posts like this were used to accommodate officials in high paying post-retirement postings.4* 117*
7. There is much greater communication between government and people. Many ministers and even PM office interact with common citizens on Twitter among other platforms. 124* 119*
8. Options opened for direct entry of domain experts in to government departments. 133* 134* 135*
9. Various measures taken to improve business climate like curtailment of harassment by various inspectors, passing of bankruptcy law, steps to improve ease of doing business among many others. It resulted in India making a record jump in ease of doing business index in 2017 and broke in to top 100 for first time. 3* 10* 12* 23* 46* 59* 66* 72* 154* 155* 156* 158* 159* 160*
10. A very large number of old, archaic laws removed. Latest one under consideration (July 2018) in Supreme Court is article 377, removal of which will lead to decriminalisation of homo-sexuality. 1159 such redundant laws removed in just 2 years. 42* 163* 164* 165*

BAD

1. Attempts to clean up bureaucracy and red tape need more will. In 4 years, there have not been many deep reforms in functioning of most govt departments, as far as corruption and delays are concerned. Then there have been some seemingly counter-productive measures like the one which makes it harder to investigate a govt servant.
2. For most part, BJP ruled states have not shown enough initiative and willingness for reforms as was expected of them.

SCORE: 6.5/10

There are some measures like removing squatters from palatial govt properties, attempted reforms in beuraucracy

2.Corruption and black money.

Recovering black money was one of the major poll promises of BJP and they have made fairly good progress on some fronts while it lacks on others.. As it happened, cleanups also unearthed huge scams in bank loans in which UPA regime gave away loans to numerous people who never meant to pay those back. This has proven to be one of the biggest scams in history and many big industrialists and UPA politicians including former Finance Minister Chidambaram have been implicated. Many of them have ran away from India to escape persecution. Apart from that, even after their best efforts, all the opposition parties and their followers have been unable to find a single corruption charge against Modi regime till date.

Action against corruption and black money

Demonetisation, however controversial it may be, has enabled recovery of untaxed income worth thousands of crores which would have never happened except for drastic measure like this. Implementation of GST was not perfect, but it has led to streamlined taxation process with reduced leakage, This link contains list of some income tax raids done immediately after demonetisation. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRovmVA_9x7NoyJHFLFZ7pA1Mi7gUYB6_OuGHgQA0pFLc9qQ1xTGMClqpGrudmZJ7YrBcg1n-VguZBi/pubhtml?gid=1658058173&single=true

GOOD

1. Huge scam in banking sector in which loans worth thousands of crores were given away without proper checks under influence of UPA ministers unearthed. Number of industrialists, bank officials and politicians are implicated. Many of these industrialists are being forced to give back that money. Legal actions being taken against others, some of which have fled India and some politicians and their associates. Banks starting to show gains after sustained recovery efforts. 120* 131* 136* 137* 138* 139* 140* 141* 158*
2. Many politicians jailed or under investigation for various corruption issues including former CMs and central ministers. 130* 142* 143* 144* 149* 150*
3. Many dubious NGOs, many of which have shady backgrounds have been forced to shut shop or forced to reduce their operations. Among the benign ones, many of such organisations were front for money laundering and payment of lackeys. Others were foreign sponsored fronts for mass scale conversions of Indics, anti-India propaganda and terrorism. 5* 9* 21* 91* 115* 126* 127* 145*
4. A large quantity of black money from foreign bank accounts successfully recovered. Treaties signed with Switzerland (among other countries) under which Swiss will share details of Indians owning bank accounts in Swiss banks. 103* 122* 128* 129* 146* 148*
5. Large increase in number of people paying income tax after rules like Aadhar verification, demonetisation, GST. Huge amounts of money recovered in income tax raids. Properties of gangsters targeted. Lakhs of shell companies closed down. 101* 121* 123* 128* 129* 147* 151* 152* 153* 161*
6. Stronger laws passed against corruption and tax evasion. Top level corruption reduces significantly. 33* 75* 93* 101* 102*

BAD

1. Modi regime perhaps underestimated how difficult the recovery of black money from foreign accounts will be. Although a huge sum of money has been recovered, the whole process will take a lot longer and most likely will fall short of hype during election campaign.
2. A number of bank loan defaulters managed to evade authorities and escape to foreign countries. If they had been arrested earlier, then loan recovery would have been a lot more easier and faster.
3. Implementation of GST was not up to par. Numerous issues still exist which will take atleast a few months to be sorted out.
4. Although I personally support demonetisation, it was not as well planned as it should have been. Very large number of people faced inconveniences for quite long time due to shortage of currency. Strangely, number of currency notes in circulation has reached back previous levels.

5. Even if corruption at top levels has been reduced, grassroot corruption still seems to be as bad as it was earlier. Problem of citizens dealing directly with govt departments have not eased much.

SCORE: 6.5/10

The actual score would have been a 6. Extra half point is due to clean image of almost every minister and no scams yet. Opposition parties have tried their best to make up scams like the one for Rafale planes, but their attempts have been laughably stupid.

3. Programs for citizens.

Reforms in electricity

This regime seems to have better reach out programs for general public which are meant to make their lives and interaction with government machinery easier and fruitful. In addition to big steps like Jan Dhan bank accounts, Mudra Yojna, free LPG for poor, there have been number of measures implemented to make government departments more responsive and approachable. Some of these points have overlap with economy and infrastructure issues, but they are mentioned here because they affect lives of citizens directly. and profoundly.. Some of these will be explained in detail in later posts.

GOOD

1. Red tape cut across various government departments. Steps like digital locker, self-attestation of documents and a few others meant to reduce paperwork, unnecessary delays and corruption implemented. 47* 62* 66* 67* 72* 107*
2. Jan Dhan Yojna brings banking to the poorest and enables direct transfer of funds for subsidies and other welfare programs. This is one of the best measures in quite a long time meant for direct benefit of the poor. Reduces delays and corruption. 167* 168* 169* 170* 171* 172* 173* 175*
3. Passport issue and re-issue process made much easier and faster. 110* 166*
4. More platforms for feedback about government departments and policies created. Emphasis on transparency in governance and grievance redressal mechanisms. 79* 124* 116* 119*
5. Steps taken to solve some employee issues related to Provident Fund, pensions and others. Lot more reforms still needed. 6* 18*
6. Swachh Bharat Mission despite problems is showing some results. 85% of population now has access to toilets, compared to around 40% at start of program. According to WHO, 3 lakhs deaths caused by diarrhea were averted between 2014 and 2019. A lot of public places like railway stations are much cleaner. 175 * 176* 177* 178* 179*

Source https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/img/63791557/Master.jpg

7. Ujwala Yojana, a scheme meant to eradicate use of polluting fuels like wood, coal, dung for cooking proves to be a good success. 5 crore new connections allotted ahead of target. 180* 181* 182* 183*
8. While many countries struggle with it, India implements strong net neutrality rules. 184* 185*
9. Multiple steps taken to improve conditions for farmers. Extra impetus on reducing malnutrition and increasing availability of nutritional food to citizens through various schemes. 186*, 187*, 188*, 189* 205* 206*
10. Excellent work so far by power ministry bringing even the remotest places in India on electricity grid. A number of villages which had remained outside the grid now have electricity. Additionally, electricity production and distribution is much better. India has a power surplus and is 3rd largest electricity producer in world. Most of issues still remaining are more often than not due to inefficient and corrupt state electricity corporations. Cheap LED bulbs help in reducing power consumption. 190*, 191* 192* 193* 194* 195* 196* 197* 198* 199* 200* 201* 202*
11. Much needed push for solar power with huge new solar power plants coming up. 203* 204*
12. Pace of road construction across the country has picked up substantially and it has been the highest till now. Many remote regions have new connectivity and existing highways in most regions have been upgraded, 207* to 232* 26 links

BAD

1. Inspite of all the schemes and subsidies, Indian agricultural sector suffers from various issues which will need a lot more work and better implementations. There has been no obvious solution of issues arising due to small size of land holdings, mimimum support prices and bureaucratic red tape.
2. Swach Bharat mission has been partially successful at best.
3. Implementation of digital measures meant to reduce red tape have had limited effect till now. Many people and govt departments remain unaware and disinterested in these changes.

SCORE: 7/10

If it was just the intention of projects mentioned here, this would be a full 10. But meaningful implementation of many of these projects is hampered by numerous factors like inefficient, corrupt bureaucracy, infinitely stupid and large population as well as mediocre planning. Some of these projects are longterm and the effects will be visible only after a certain amount of time.

FINAL SCORE: 6.6/10

If compared with UPA regime, this one is miles ahead in almost everything. But this is not a good enough standard to improve upon. There have been some good efforts from top, but on ground implementation has been good in only a few. Some of the long standing issues like reforms in bureaucracy, agriculture and a few other fields which will take more than just good intent and announcement of schemes.