The first tropical storm of the Atlantic hurricane season is expected to complicate July 4 travel across the region, bringing heavy rains and high surf to New Jersey as the week moves on.

Tropical Storm Arthur, currently spinning off the coast of central Florida, is expected to slowly move up the East Coast of the United States as the week progresses, sending a steady plume of tropical moisture north as it does. While the storm is not expected to make landfall near New Jersey, it is expected to affect the state indirectly.

"The tropical system is likely to spoil a day at the beach (along the East Coast) due to the risk of downpours and rough surf," wrote Alex Sosnowski, a meteorologist at AccuWeather, in his morning forecast."As long as the tropical system does not stall, clearing is likely from west to east in coastal areas of the Northeast Friday night, perhaps just in time for firework shows from Washington, D.C., to Philadelphia, and New York City."

Heavy rain and thunderstorms are expected to develop Wednesday and continue through at least part of Independence Day as Arthur feeds moisture north ahead of an approaching cold front, according to forecasters.

“A lot of tropical moisture is going to be sent up into the region from this system,” said Nick Troiano, a meteorologist at Hackettstown-based WeatherWorks. “I wouldn’t be surprised if an area from the Carolinas into the Capital Beltway and the I-95 corridor and even up into southern New England saw between 2 and 4 inches of rain from Wednesday through Saturday.”

National Hurricane Center

As of this evening, Tropical Storm Arthur had sustained winds of 50 mph and is expected to begin slowly moving northeast today, paralleling the Eastern Seaboard. It is expected to strengthen in the coming days, perhaps even reaching minimal hurricane strength as it passes the Carolinas and later New Jersey Friday, though it is expected to remain well off the Garden State’s coast.

Forecasters urged residents to monitor the forecast for Arthur, as the exact track and strength of the storm remains uncertain and will ultimately dictate its impacts.

“We’re keeping an eye on the depression,” said Jim Bunker, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service’s Mount Holly office.

The unsettled conditions are likely to affect the plans of those traveling Thursday, when the heaviest rain is expected to inundate New Jersey, according to Bunker. While heavy rain is expected to be the primary threat for most of the state, high winds and heavy surf are also possible along the coast.

July 4 may not be a complete washout, however. Both the cold front and the tropical system are expected to rapidly begin departing the region on Friday and while some rain is likely, conditions should improve rapidly as the day progresses.
Heat and humidity may be the most noticeable aspect of the forecast this week.

Temperatures are expected to push into the low 90s throughout the week with dew points pushing into the 60s and 70s – the recipe for uncomfortable summertime conditions.

“Folks need to be aware of that,” Bunker said. “It’s going to be very hot and humid.”

Even if Friday’s weather doesn’t improve, the holiday weekend isn’t expected to be a complete wash. As the unsettled weather passes, temperatures and humidity levels are expected to drop drastically Saturday and Sunday, with abundant sunshine.