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Solar Activity Report for 10/20/03

** Aurora Watch In Effect ** If you didn t know better, you d say that the sun is trying to make up for lost time. The last 48 hours have been quite

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, Oct 20, 2003

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** Aurora Watch In Effect **

If you didn't know better, you'd say that the sun is trying to make up
for lost time. The last 48 hours have been quite interesting. For
starters, the solar wind speed is hovering close to the 700 km/sec
mark. That, coupled with a persistent south-pointing Interplanetary
Magnetic Field, have served to keep the geomagnetic field active. G-1
geomagnetic storm conditions have been observed within the last 24
hours, and more are expected on Tuesday. The biggest news, however,
is the massive X1.1 flare that happened on the morning of the 19th.
It was accompanied by a big, bright CME. The source for the activity
was sunspot region 484, which spans more than nine Earth-diameters end
to end. Due to the location of this sunspot region, the CME was not
Earth-directed. We could, however, receive a light, glancing blow
from it. If you look carefully, you can just see what may be a
partial halo component to the CME. If region 484 retains its current
level of activity as it moves into a more Earth-pointing position,
things could get even more interesting.

Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Geomagnetic storms
reaching the G1 level occurred. Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level
occurred.

Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be moderate.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G2 level are expected. Radio blackouts
reaching the R1 level are expected.

Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. There's a slight
chance for another isolated X-class flare and an even lesser chance of
proton activity from Region 484.

Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm
levels for the next 24 hours, dropping to mostly low with a chance for
isolated periods of minor storming during day two. On day three, the
faintly Earth-directed CME from 18 October should impact the magnetic
field, and is likely to increase activity to mostly active to minor
storming, with a chance for an isolated period of major storming.