Tropical Storm JULIA (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122010
500 AM AST SAT SEP 18 2010
STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO WEAKEN JULIA. SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF THE STORM IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE
NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A BURST OF CONVECTION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS
ARE DROPPING QUICKLY...AND A BLEND OF THE T/CI NUMBERS FROM
TAFB/SAB AND ADT VALUES FROM UW-CIMSS GIVES AN INITIAL WIND SPEED
OF 50 KT. A STEADY DECREASE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY WITH THE STRONG
SHEAR EXPECTED TO PERSIST. JULIA SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 72
HOURS...IF NOT SOONER BECAUSE OF EXPECTED COOL SSTS. THE NHC
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL...AND IS BELOW MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE. THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED BY IGOR IN
ABOUT 96 HRS.
THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BEND A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND IS
NOW 320/16. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TODAY...WITH A NORTHWARD TURN TOMORROW AS JULIA
MOVES AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT JULIA WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM IGOR THAT THE LARGER
HURRICANE WILL NOT HAVE AN IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON THE TRACK OF JULIA.
THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...ON THE RIGHT EDGE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND NOT TOO FAR FROM THE GFS.
THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 18/0900Z 27.4N 50.1W 50 KT
12HR VT 18/1800Z 29.5N 51.5W 45 KT
24HR VT 19/0600Z 32.3N 52.1W 40 KT
36HR VT 19/1800Z 34.5N 51.3W 35 KT
48HR VT 20/0600Z 36.0N 49.0W 30 KT
72HR VT 21/0600Z 39.5N 44.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96HR VT 22/0600Z...ABSORBED BY IGOR
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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