ABOUT THE PRODUCTS AVAILABLE THROUGH THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT KEY WEST An on-line adaptation of Tony Cristaldi's "Products and Services for East Central Florida", customized and tweaked for Key West by Chip Kasper

The National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office (WFO) in Key West, Florida maintains a constant vigil for life threatening weather such as severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, hurricanes and coastal/freshwater flooding. The primary mission of the National Weather Service is to issue warnings and statements for these types of phenomena in order to minimize loss of life and property damage. The National Weather Service (NWS) also issues public forecasts that influence the daily decisions of thousands of residents across the Florida Keys, including the sizeable marine community. Commercial enterprises and public utilities, water resource managers, pilots, recreational boaters, commercial anglers, dive boat operators, campers and others in the recreational community rely on NWS forecasts.

A complete modernization, which has been underway within the National Weather Service promises to greatly improve the forecast and warning capabilities of WFO Key West. Included in this modernization was the construction a new facility at the Key West International Airport in 1999. Automated weather observing systems, doppler radar, new and improved weather satellites, and advances in weather information processing systems will lead to improved timeliness and detail of forecasts and warnings.

Temperature and precipitation information available for the Key West dates back to November 1870!

Requests for detailed climate information or for hard copies should be directed to either the Southeast Regional Climate Center (SERCC) or the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Some important telephone numbers to remember for reaching WFO Key West:

The Key West WFO is responsible for issuing weather forecasts, watches, warnings, advisories and statements for people in the following counties in east central Florida:

Monroe

WFO Key West is also responsible for issuing the same suite of products within the marine service area which includes the coastal waters of the Florida Keys out to 60 nautical miles, including Florida Bay and the waters between Key West and Dry Tortugas.

Some confusion still exists among the general public regarding the difference between a weather WATCH, WARNING and an ADVISORY.

A WATCH is issued to alert the public that CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE for severe or hazardous weather to develop.

A WARNING is issued to notify people that severe weather is IMMINENT or ALREADY OCCURRING.

An ADVISORY is issued to alert the public to hazardous weather conditions that aren't quite as severe as those for which warnings are issued.

As of May 19th, 1999, all watches and warnings for the Florida Keys and adjacent waters are issued by WFO Key West, with a few exceptions: Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches (and Warnings) are issued by the Tropical Prediction Center, (TPC, formerly the National Hurricane Center, or NHC) while Severe Thunderstorm/Tornado Watches are issued by the Storm Prediction Center (SPC, formerly the National Severe Storms Forecast Center, Or NSSFC) in Norman, Oklahoma.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES/WARNINGS are coordinated through local NWS offices, but are issued by the TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER in Miami. They are issued for coastal locations, and like special marine warnings, are referenced with respect to "break points" along the coast. There are two types of tropical cyclone watches warnings:

HURRICANE WARNING - Sustained winds of at least 74 mph (64 knots) associated with a hurricane are expected across coastal areas within 24 hours. Also, dangerously high tides and storm surges will accompany the high winds. If a tropical storm is expected to reach hurricane strength prior to landfall, then a hurricane watch/warning will be issued rather than a tropical storm watch/warning.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING - Sustained winds of 39 to 73 miles per hour (34 to 63 knots) associated with a tropical storm are expected across a specified coastal area within 24 hours or less. As mentioned before, dangerously high tides and storm surges along the coast usually accompany the high winds.

GALE WARNING - Issued to alert the marine community that sustained winds of 39 to 54 miles per hour (34 to 47 knots) not directly associated with a tropical cyclone will occur over the marine area.

STORM WARNING - Issued to alert the marine community that sustained winds of at least 55 miles per hour (48 knots) not directly associated with a tropical cyclone will occur over the marine area.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY - An advisory in the coastal waters for winds from 20 to 38 miles per hour (18 to 33 knots) and/or for sea conditions that are considered potentially hazardous to small craft (there is no legal definition for "small craft").

SEVERE WEATHER WARNINGS alert the public to the presence of thunderstorms or tornadoes which produce damaging winds or hail, an are usually issued for one or two counties at a time, typically for up to an hour.

FLOOD WARNINGS/ADVISORIES are issued to alert the public to the potential threat to life and property due to heavy rainfall from thunderstorms, tropical cyclones, etc.

STATEMENTS are issued to inform the public of any weather watches and/or warnings that are currently in effect inside the county warning area. They are also issued to alert the public to non-severe but potentially hazardous weather situations (e. g. thunderstorm threats, dense fog, minor flooding). They are usually updated every 1 to 3 hours, except for the Hazardous Weather Outlook/Special Weather Statement.

ZONE, STATE AND COASTAL MARINE FORECASTS are the main products by which general weather forecasts reach the public, primarily via the news media. The Coastal Marine Forecast is used by the large marine community in east central Florida.

HOW THE INFORMATION GETS OUT

WFO Key West disseminates weather forecasts, warnings and other information directly to the residents of the Florida Keys directly, via the media (newspapers, television and radio stations, etc.), and by way of emergency management officials. This is accomplished through three primary dissemination systems: NOAA Weather Radio (NWR), NOAA Weather Wire Service (NWWS), and the NOAA Family of Services (FOS).

NOAA WEATHER RADIO (NWR)Listening area forecasts and warning information is broadcast 24 hours a day, 365 days a year from WFO Key West. We transmit this information through the following NWR transmitters: WXJ-95 (162.400 MHz) and WWG60 (162.450 MHz).

The local "NWR listening area" comprised of the area covered by both transmitters includes all of the Florida Keys plus parts of the adjacent coastal waters. However, weather conditions may temporarily alter the transmission range of broadcasts.

As previously stated, the primary goal of the NWS is to protect life and property. To accomplish this during severe weather, the NWR programming is adjusted, allowing the main emphasis of the broadcast to focus on the warning program. Due to their urgency, warnings are aired with the highest priority. This allows for maximum speed and efficiency in disseminating hazardous weather information and will pre-empt regularly scheduled programming.

WFO Key West broadcasts severe weather watches, warnings and advisories, detailing weather events such as hurricanes, tornadoes, thunderstorms, floods, and high winds. In addition, background information concerning the storm and appropriate safety tips are included with the warning. Statements keep listeners informed and updated on the storm's progress, and the status of watches, warnings or advisories that are in effect.

When dangerous conditions threaten the radio listening areas, tones are broadcast which will allow specially built receivers to automatically display the nature of the threat and/or automatically activate.Radios equipped for "SAME" activation will display the specific threat and allow for user-selection of counties, while the older "tone-alert" radios will usually sound a warning tone and activate on receipt of the correct signal. The alarm tones are followed immediately by a message describing the threat, and updates are made as frequently as possible. Check our Southern Region NOAA Weather Radio page for a description of which radios alert which counties.

The NWR warning alarm is tested each Wednesday between 11 AM and noon unless there is the threat of severe weather.

WHY ISSUED: A narrative product which discusses the meteorological factors (such as current weather conditions and analyses), computer model forecasts, etc. which apply to the current Florida Zone Forecasts. This product explains the scientific reasoning behind the forecast.

ISSUED FOR: All of the Florida Keys and adjacent coastal waters

TIMES ISSUED: Four times daily (usually about one to two hours before the zone forecasts or updates are issued.)

CURRENTLY...KEY WEST 88D RADAR SHOWS ALL PRECIP ECHOES WITHIN THE AREA HAVINGDISSIPATED AS OF 8 PM...WITH NO THREATENING CONVECTION OVER THEADJACENT SOUTHERN PENINSULA...AND ONLY ISOLATED NEARLY STATIONARYCONVECTION ON THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA. DEBRIS CLOUDS OVER THE KEYSHAVE THINNED A BIT PAST HOUR. C-MAN BUOYS ARE RUNNING NE TO E AT5 TO 10 KT. 00Z KEY WEST SOUNDING SHOWS STRONGEST WINDS BELOW 25THSD FT ONLY 8 KT AT 2 THSD FT. SOUNDING IS WET AND UNSTABLE...PW = 2.4 INCHES...LI = -4...CAPE = 2389 J/KG....BUT NO SYNOPTICSCALE LIFT IS SEEN IN THE AREA AND BOUNDARIES SEEM TO BE MINOR ONES.

FIRST PERIOD UPDATE...PUBLIC ZONES WILL BE UPDATED BY 10 PM TO REFLECT THE ALREADYFORECASTED TREND OF DECREASING SKY COVER AND I MAY LOWER POPS FROM30 TO 20 PCT IF TREND CONTINUES. ALSO...WE NEED TO BRING SHADOWEXTENDED UP TO PROPER FORECAST PERIOD. COASTAL WATERS ARE ON TRACK...NO CHANGES ARE INDICATED TO WIND/SEAS TONIGHT...AND I WILL JUSTADD A DAY TO THE EXTENDED.

.EYW...NONECLB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT)

PRODUCT HEADER: MIASPSEYW

ISSUING OFFICE: WFO Key West

WHY ISSUED: Identifies all anticipated hazardous weather conditions expected within the Key West CWA within the next 6 to 12 hours. It can also be issued for significant hazardous weather events out to 24 or even 36 hours. It also updates information on weather watches, and other non-severe or winter-type weather.

ISSUED FOR: All of the Florida Keys and adjacent coastal waters.

TIMES ISSUED: Routinely issued around 6AM each day and is updated whenever conditions warrant.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE KEYS AND SURROUNDINGWATERS TODAY.

THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS QUITE MOIST...WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME OF THESTORMS TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN THAT MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING INLOW AREAS...AS WELL AS MAKING DRIVING AND BOATING HAZARDOUS.

CONDITIONS ARE ALSO SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR WATERSPOUT DEVELOPMENTTODAY.

IN ADDITION...WHENEVER THUNDER CAN BE HEARD THERE IS A DANGER OFCLOUD TO SURFACE LIGHTNING STRIKES.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION VISIT THE KEY WEST WEATHER OFFICEWEBSITE AT www.srh.noaa.gov/eyw/

JEB

FLORIDA KEYS ZONE FORECASTS

PRODUCT HEADER: MIAZFPEYW

ISSUING OFFICE: WFO Key West

WHY ISSUED: Routine forecast of expected sky conditions, significant weather, high and low temperatures, wind direction and speed, plus probability of precipitation out to 48 hours. Any watches/warnings (except for "short-fuse" warnings which are usually only in effect for an hour or less) or advisories which are currently in effect are headlined. An extended forecast is also included covering a time period of 5 days from the time of issuance.

WHY ISSUED: Routine forecast of expected wind and sea conditions, plus any precipitation, significant weather and reductions to visibility expected to affect the nearshore coastal waters. Any watches/warnings or advisories which are currently in effect for the marine area are headlined.

ISSUED FOR: Florida Keys coastal waters out to 50 nautical miles.

TIMES ISSUED: Four times daily, at 4:30/10:30 AM/PM. Updated if necessary.

WHY ISSUED: Routine forecast of expected wind and sea conditions, plus any precipitation, significant weather and reductions to visibility expected to affect the offshore waters of the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Any watches/warnings or advisories which are currently in effect for the marine area are headlined.

TIMES ISSUED: Four times daily, at 5:30/11:30 AM/PM. Updated if necessary.

SHORT TERM FORECAST

PRODUCT HEADER: MIANOWEYW

ISSUING OFFICE: WFO Key West

WHY ISSUED: Gives specific details on the weather that is expected to occur across the Florida Keys and the adjacent coastal waters over the next few hours. Weather information includes: where and when thunder/lightning storms will begin or end, how much or how heavy the rain will fall, when the sky will clear or become cloudy, how fast the temperature will rise or fall, and from which direction and how fast the wind will blow. When there is no significant weather affecting any part of the Florida Keys or adjacent coastal waters, the Short Term Forecast will not be issued, but will resume once significant weather or precipitation begins to affect part of WFO Key West's area of responsibility.

ISSUED FOR: Can be issued for the Lower, Middle, Upper Keys and adjacent waters out to 50 nautical miles, Florida Bay, and the waters between Key West and Dry Tortugas.

TIMES ISSUED: Issued routinely every 2 to 4 hours during non-severe weather events. During severe or rapidly changing weather, it is issued at least once each hour. Covers a period of an hour or so during severe or rapidly changing weather, or up to about 4 hours when the weather is less active.

.NOW...THROUGH 10 PM...AN AREA OF WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DRIFTSOUTH FROM THE FLORIDA MAINLAND AND OVER FLORIDA BAY...CARD ANDBARNES SOUNDS...AND ALSO OVER PORTIONS OF KEY LARGO BETWEEN TAVERNIERAND OCEAN REEF. PEOPLE IN THESE AREAS CAN EXPECT DANGEROUS LIGHTNINGSTRIKES...AND A FEW SPOTS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.$$

TORNADO WARNING

PRODUCT HEADER: MIATOREYW

ISSUING OFFICE: NWS KEY WEST

WHY ISSUED: Issued whenever a tornado is expected on the ground over any of the Florida Keys. A tornado warning can be issued based upon a reliable spotter report, or a strong indication from doppler radar that a tornado will occur soon or is occurring. In addition, weather conditions associated with severe thunderstorms (such as hail) may also occur.

ISSUED FOR: Usually either the Lower Keys, the Middle Keys, or the Upper Keys.

TIMES ISSUED: As warranted, for a period of one hour or less, but never for less than 15 minutes.

AT 640 AM...WEATHER SERVICE PERSONNEL OBSERVED A WATERSPOUT AROUND 1MILE SOUTH OF THE KEY WEST AIRPORT. THE WATERSPOUT WAS MOVING WESTTO NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH. THE WATERSPOUT MAY MAKE LANDFALL OVERTHE SOUTH PART OF KEY WEST BY AROUND 650 AM...THEN CONTINUE MOVINGWEST NORTHWEST INTO THE REST OF KEY WEST.

ABANDON MOBILE HOMES! GO IN A NEARBY STURDY BUILDING. AS A LASTRESORT...LIE FLAT IN A DITCH AND COVER YOUR HEAD.

GO TO A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR! STAY AWAY FROMWINDOWS.

&

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

PRODUCT HEADER: MIASVREYW

ISSUING OFFICE: WFO Key West

WHY ISSUED: Thunderstorms containing winds of 58 miles per hour or greater, and/or hail 3/4 of an inch in diameter or larger will occur. Heavy rain and frequent lightning often accompany severe thunderstorms. Occasionally, they produce tornadoes or flash floods.

TIMES ISSUED: As warranted, for a period of one hour or less, but never for less than 15 minutes.

URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY

PRODUCT HEADER: MIAFFSEYW

ISSUING OFFICE: WFO KEY WEST

WHY ISSUED: Minor flooding of poorly drained urban areas will occur due to excessive rainfall, which temporarily overburdens small streams, creeks, water retention areas and municipal drainage systems. Flooding is usually confined tothe lowest lying areas such as streets, intersections, parking lots, etc. Flood damage is expected to be less than $5000 with this type of flooding.

...AN URBAN FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM FOR THE LOWERKEYS FROM KEY WEST TO BOCA CHICA KEY...

SUDDEN DOWNPOURS ON THE LOWER-MOST KEYS FROM 11 AM TO NOONDROPPED AN INCH OF RAIN OVER KEY WEST...STOCK ISLAND...AND PARTOF BOCA CHICA KEY. SOME ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER THESEAREAS THROUGH THE EARLY AND MID AFTERNOON.

ALL THIS RAIN IS AGGRAVATING SOME ONGOING FLOODING OF LOW PLACESPRODUCED BY HEAVY RAIN LAST NIGHT.

MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT DRIVE THROUGH WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH.

NNNN

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

PRODUCT HEADER: MIASVSEYW

ISSUING OFFICE: WFO KEY WEST

WHY ISSUED: To update the status of tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings. Also used to provide information on any other severe weather conditions where there is a threat to life and property, such as damage reports, and/or the presence of funnel clouds.

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR THE LOWER KEYS IN MONROE COUNTY HAS BEENCANCELLED...THE WATERSPOUT AROUND 1 MILE SOUTH OF THE KEY WEST AIRPORT THATPROMPTED THE TORNADO WARNING HAS EITHER DISSIPATED OR MOVED WELLINTO FLORIDA BAY. NO ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

&

SPECIAL MARINE WARNING

PRODUCT HEADER: MIASMWEYW

ISSUING OFFICE: WFO Key West

WHY ISSUED: Thunderstorms over the marine area are expected to produce wind gusts of at least 34 knots, frequent deadly cloud to water lightning, rough seas, and/or waterspouts.

ISSUED FOR: one or more of 10 marine zones, including the nearshore waters, the offshore waters, Florida Bay, and the area between Key West and Dry Tortugas.

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR... - THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA STRAITS COASTAL WATERS FROM PIGEON KEY TO KEY WEST OUT TO 20 NM

* UNTIL 1025 AM EDT

* THIS INCLUDES PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS OF MONROE COUNTY (FLORIDA KEYS).

* AT 920 AM EDT A WATERSPOUT WAS SIGHTED BY NATIONAL WEATHERSERVICE PERSONNEL ABOUT 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE KEY WESTAIRPORT. THIS WATERSPOUT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A NARROW BAND OFTOWERING CUMULUS AND SHOWERS. LITTLE MOVEMENT WAS OBSERVED.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL WATERSPOUTS TO FORMIN THE WARNING AREA.

THE WINDS IN AND NEAR WATERSPOUTS CAN EASILY OVERTURN SMALL BOATS.IF A WATERSPOUT IS SIGHTED...MOVE AWAY FROM IT AS FAST AS POSSIBLE!

YOU SHOULD IMMEDIATELY REPORT ALL WATERSPOUTS TO LOCAL LAWENFORCEMENT.

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT

PRODUCT HEADER: MIAMWSEYW

ISSUING OFFICE: WFO Key West

WHY ISSUED: Issued to update the status of any Special Marine Warnings currently in effect. Can also be used to address any marine weather hazard which may not be covered in another product such as the Short Term Forecast or Hazardous Weather Outlook.

AT 1055 PM DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED A LINE OFSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS... MOVING NORTHAND NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

AT 1055 PM THIS LINE EXTENDED FROM 30 MILES SOUTH OF THE MARQUESASTO 25 MILES SOUTH OF KEY WEST TO 40 MILES SOUTH OF GRASSY KEY. THISLINE HAS BEEN WEAKENING AS IT GETS CLOSER TO THE KEYS...AFTERORIGINATING OVER CUBA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

STILL...THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CAUSE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNINGSTRIKES...WIND GUSTS PAST 30 KNOTS AND HEAVY RAINS AS IT AFFECTS THEWATERS OFFSHORE OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS. BY MIDNIGHT THELEADING EDGE WILL BE FROM ABOUT 10 TO 20 MILES SOUTH OF THEMARQUESAS AND KEY WEST TO 15 MILES SOUTH OF MARATHON TO 35 MILESSOUTH OF CRAIG KEY.

BOATERS ON THE FLORIDA STRAITS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR THESE STORMS...AND GET TO A SAFE HARBOR BEFORE THEY APPROACH. BOATERS SHOULD ALSOBE AWARE THAT THE GUSTY WINDS CAN PRECEDE THE ACTUAL SHOWERS ANDSTORMS BY SEVERAL MILES.

STORMS WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT TO KEYS...BUT CAN STILL AFFECT THENEARBY WATERS SOUTH OF THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

LOCAL STORM REPORT

PRODUCT HEADER: MIALSREYW

ISSUING OFFICE: WFO Key West

WHY ISSUED: To relay local reports of severe weather (hail, wind damage, tornadoes, lightning damage, etc.) received within the CWA to the local media, emergency management community, and the general public.

0920 AM KEY WEST FL SEVERAL WATERSPOUTS08/26/99 MONROE DEVELOPED IN AND AROUND THE EXTREME LOWER KEYS. SIX WATERSPOUTS DEVELOPED BETWEEN 918 AM AND 1009 AM. LOCATIONS OF DEVELOPMENT FROM KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WERE AS FOLLOWS: 5ENE...5N...4N...5N...5NE AND 1S.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

PRODUCT HEADER: MIAPNSEYW

ISSUING OFFICE: WFO Key West

WHY ISSUED: A general narrative statement that deals with a current or expected condition that may be of significant interest, and not covered by other statements. Examples of this would include NOAA weather radio outages, hazardous weather safety tips, information of media interest, changes to NWS products and/or services, and solicitation of feedback from users.

EACH YEAR THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE CROWD THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERSOFF THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR SPORT LOBSTER SEASON. MANY MAY NOT BE AWAREOF POTENTIAL MARINE WEATHER HAZARDS THAT MAY DEVELOP QUICKLY DURINGTHE SUMMER HERE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INKEY WEST WOULD LIKE TO TAKE THIS OPPORTUNITY TO REVIEW SOME OF THESEMARINE WEATHER HAZARDS.

* THUNDERSTORMS...DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED DAILY SHOWERS ANDTHUNDERSTORMS IS A FACT OF LIFE DURING THE SUMMER IN THE STATE OFFLORIDA. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ERUPT VERY QUICKLY AND MAY CATCH THEUNSUSPECTING MARINER UNAWARE. THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS OFFTHE FLORIDA KEYS ARE USUALLY BRIEF...HOWEVER...THEY MAY PRODUCE VERYHEAVY RAIN REDUCING VISIBILITIES...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WITHLOCALLY ROUGH SEAS...AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO SURFACE LIGHTNING STRIKES.

* WATERSPOUTS...THE AREA INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENTCOASTAL WATERS IS CONSIDERED THE WATERSPOUT CAPITAL OF THE WORLD.WATERSPOUTS CAN BE JUST AS DANGEROUS AND DEADLY AS TORNADOES...ANDCAN EASILY CAPSIZE A SMALL WATERCRAFT. WATERSPOUTS USUALLY FORM ATDARK...FLAT CLOUD BASES AND CAN LAST SEVERAL MINUTES.

* LIGHTNING...WHENEVER YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...IT IS POSSIBLE FORLIGHTNING TO STRIKE NEARBY. IF CAUGHT IN THIS SITUATION...AVOIDBEING THE TALLEST OBJECT AROUND. ALSO STAY AWAY FROM ALL METALOBJECTS.

IF YOU KNOW THAT ONE OF THESE MARINE WEATHER HAZARDS IS EXPECTED INTHE AREA THAT YOU ARE GOING...THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION WOULD BE TOSTAY IN PORT UNTIL THE BAD WEATHER PASSES. IF...HOWEVER...YOU ARECAUGHT OVER THE OPEN WATER...STAY BELOW DECK...AND REMEMBER TOWEAR YOUR PERSONAL FLOTATION DEVICE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIOFOR THE LATEST MARINE WARNINGS...STATEMENTS...AND FORECASTS.

...HAVE A SAFE AND HAPPY SPORT LOBSTER SEASON 1999...

CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE

PRODUCT HEADER: MIACEEYW

ISSUING OFFICE: WFO Key West

WHY ISSUED: In cooperation with the state of Florida Division of Emergency Management, the NWS will issue this product to provide information to the public concerning events that might require protective action within our CWA. Examples of this type of event: A chemical spill or fire requiring evacuation, release of toxic or radioactive materials due to an accident at a nuclear power plant, or a petroleum spill.

ISSUED FOR: An area ranging from a few blocks in a city to multiple islands.

TIMES ISSUED: Whenever requested by state or county government officials.

...SMOKE CLOUD FROM DELTA ROCKET EXPLOSION MOVING OVER SOUTHERNBREVARD AND INTO INDIAN RIVER COUNTY...

AT 1235 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR IN MELBOURNE SHOWEDTHAT THE SMOKE CLOUD FROM THE DELTA ROCKET EXPLOSION EXTENDEDFROM WEST MELBOURNE TO INDIAN HARBOR BEACH MOVING SOUTH AT 25 MPH.THE CLOUD WILL SPREAD OVER THE REST OF SOUTH BREVARD AND INDIANRIVER COUNTIES THROUGH 200 PM. BREVARD AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTYEMERGENCY MANAGEMENTS REQUEST THAT PEOPLE IN THESE AREAS STAYINDOORS UNTIL THE CLOUD HAS PASSED. RESIDENTS SHOULD MONITORLOCAL NEWS MEDIA FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.

TORNADO/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OR CANCELLATION

PRODUCT HEADER: MKCSEL (0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9)

ISSUING OFFICE: STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)

WHY ISSUED: Issued whenever conditions are favorable for the development of tornadoes and/or severe thunderstorms. Defines the area and the valid time period of the watch, lists potential weather hazards within the watch area, and includes a brief technical discussion on why the watch was issued.

ISSUED FOR: Usually a large part of the Florida Keys and adjacent waters.

TIMES ISSUED: As warranted, usually valid for a period of 5 to 7 hours

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 55 STATUTE MILES EITHER SIDE OFA LINE FROM 50 MILES SOUTH OF CROSS CITY FLORIDA TO 45 MILES NORTHOF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FORTORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENINGWEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLEWARNINGS.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAILSURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WINDGUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.

WHY ISSUED: Flooding of poorly drained low lying areas from prolonged heavy rainfall will be possible. Since there are no natural rivers or lakes in the Florida Keys, the issuance of a FLOOD WATCH would be rare, however, during the landfall of a tropical cyclone in which extremely heavy rainfall would be likely, a FLOOD WATCH may be necessary.

ISSUED FOR: All or part of the Florida Keys.

TIMES ISSUED: As warranted, usually for a period of 12 to 24 hours or longer.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH THROUGHTONIGHT OVER THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

BREVARD...ORANGE...SEMINOLE..AND VOLUSIA.

A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED IN THE ATLANTIC EAST OfTHE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STATIONARY OR DRIFTSLOWLY WEST TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL RESULTIN PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE WATCH AREA THISAFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SINCE THERE IS ALREADY STANDING WATER IN PLACES...NEARLY SATURATED GROUND...AND CANALS AND SMALL STREAMS NEAR BANKFULL FROM PREVIOUS RAINS...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE SOME FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN AND NEAR CANALS...STREAMS AND LOW-LYING AREAS.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER TODAY AND FROM A MORE EASTERLYDIRECTION. THIS WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS...AND SIGNIFICANTBEACH EROSION ALONG EXPOSED COASTS FACING EAST AND NORTHEAST.

ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST...LOSS OF SAND THAT OCCURRED THROUGH LASTNIGHT WILL ALLOW HEAVY SURF TO MORE EASILY OVERFLOW BEACH AREAS ANDROADS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AND AGAIN AROUND MIDNIGHT.NORTH OF SAINT AUGUSTINE THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING IS NOT ASGREAT BUT STILL POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ON SUNDAY COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIREFLORIDA EAST COAST. THOUGH WINDS WILL HAVE DIMINISHED SOME...EROSION CAUSEDYESTERDAY AND TODAY...MAY MAKE SOME AREAS MORE VULNERABLE. ALSO HEAVYSURF WILL STILL BE POUNDING THE EXPOSED EAST AND NORTHEAST FACING BEACHES.

LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPHWILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS. LOCAL EMERGENCY AGENCIES SHOULD CONSIDER OPENING SHELTERS FOR THE NIGHT TO ALLOW HOMELESSAND THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE HEATING A WARM PLACE TO SPEND THE NIGHT.

PET OWNERS SHOULD BRING THEIR PETS INDOORS DURING THE NIGHT TO PROTECT THEMFROM THE EFFECTS OF THE LOW WIND CHILL. $$

FLZ041-044>046-260200-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-1130 AM EST FRI DEC 25 1998

...FREEZE WARNING AND WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT...

LOW TEMPERATURES OF 28 TO 32 DEGREES WITH NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPHWILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 10 AND 20 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO.

LOCAL EMERGENCY AGENCIES SHOULD CONSIDER OPENING SHELTERS FOR THE NIGHT TO ALLOW HOMELESS AND THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE HEATING A WARM PLACE TO SPENDTHE NIGHT.

PET OWNERS SHOULD BRING THEIR PETS INDOORS DURING THE NIGHT TO PROTECT THEM FROM THE EFFECTS OF THE LOW WIND CHILL. $$

HEAT ADVISORY

PRODUCT HEADER: MIANPWEYW

ISSUING OFFICE: WFO Key West

WHY ISSUED: The combination of high temperatures and humidity will lead to heat indices (apparent temperatures felt by exposed skin) of 105 degrees or higher AND minimum temperatures remain near or above 80 degrees for 48 hours.

ISSUED FOR: Lower, Middle, or Upper Florida Keys.

TIMES ISSUED: As warranted, usually during the early or late evening. Updated every 12 or 24 hours if needed.

.A STAGNANT HIGH PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES OVER NORTH FLORIDA. BECAUSE OF THESE HIGH LEVELS OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY, PEOPLE SHOULD PLAN TO RESTRICT THEIR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS WEEKEND. WORKING IN DIRECT SUNLIGHT WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES BEING 10 TO 15 DEGREES HIGHER THAN IN THE SHADE. PROLONGED WORKIN THE SUN WITH THE HEAT INDEX ABOVE 110 DEGREES CAN RESULT IN HEAT EXHAUSTION OR EVEN HEAT STROKE.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 40 AND 45PERCENT ARE CAUSING HEAT INDICES OF 110 TO 115 DEGREES. LITTLE RELIEF IS EXPECTED AT NIGHT AS MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.

THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

$$

DENSE FOG ADVISORY

PRODUCT HEADER: MIANPWEYW

ISSUING OFFICE: WFO Key West

WHY ISSUED: Dense fog is expected to reduce visibilities to one-quarter of a mile or less on a widespread basis.

...SMOKY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY ACROSS BREVARD AND INDIAN RIVERCOUNTIES...

.DUE TO THE UNUSUALLY DRY WEATHER OF THE PAST MONTH A NUMBER OF BRUSH FIRES HAVE BEEN BURNING IN THE WESTERN PART OF INDIAN RIVER COUNTY BETWEEN BLUE CYPRESS LAKE AND FELLSMERE. DURING THE NIGHT A STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION TRAPPED DENSE SMOKE NEAR THE SURFACE. A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND HAS BLOWN MUCH OF THIS SMOKE OVER INDIAN RIVER AND SOUTH BREVARD COUNTIES.

FLZ047-054-162000-BREVARD-INDIAN RIVER-600 AM EST MON JAN 16 1999

...SMOKE ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...

AT 5 AM...VISIBILITY AT VERO BEACH WAS BELOW 1/4 MILE IN SMOKE AND FOG. THE FLORIDA HIGHWAY PATROL HAS REPORTED DANGEROUSLY LOW VISIBILITIES ALONG INTERSTATE 95 IN INDIAN RIVER AND SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTIES.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE DAY AS THE SUN HEATS THE EARTH'S SURFACEAND BREAKS THE INVERSION TRAPPING THE SMOKE NEAR THE SURFACE. SOME SMOKEWILL LINGER OVER THE AREA TODAY BUT VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE BETTER THAN 3 MILESBY EARLY AFTERNOON.

IF YOU MUST DRIVE IN THESE AREAS REDUCE YOUR SPEED AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME TOREACH YOUR DESTINATION. BE AWARE OF SLOW OR STOPPED VEHICLES AHEAD OF YOU.

PEOPLE WITH RESPIRATORY PROBLEMS SHOULD REMAIN INDOORS ESPECIALLY DURINGTHE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

WHY ISSUED: A table containing the current weather conditions throughout Florida. Included are: sky condition, temperature, dew point, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, and barometric pressure. Wind chill and heat index are included in the remarks if significant values are reached.

WHY ISSUED: Statistical summary of daily weather at Key West International Airport. Includes daily maximum, minimum, average, and record temperatures; daily (accumulated, average and record), monthly and yearly precipitation totals; and daily sunrise/sunset.

WHY ISSUED: Narrative summary of the weather during the past 12 hours (temperatures, selected rainfall amounts), plus a brief synopsis of the current and forecast weather expected to affect Florida during the next 12 to 24 hours, (weather systems, storms, fronts, etc.)

AT 900 AM... FLORIDA SKIES WERE SUNNY TO PARTLY SUNNY IN MOST AREAS.WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERED ALONG THE COAST AND JUST INLAND ASWELL AS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TO SOUTHEASTFLORIDA.

OVERNIGHT...LOW TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 64 DEGREES AT CRESTVIEW TO79 DEGREES AT MIAMI BEACH AND WEST PALM BEACH. RAINFALL OVER THE PAST24 HOUR ENDING AT 8AM EDT WAS MOSTLY LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER INCH. THEHIGHEST REPORTED WAS SIXTEEN-HUNDREDTHS INCH /0.16/ AT CORAL SPRINGS.

A PERSISTANT EASTERLY WIND FLOW KEPT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ALONGTHE FLORIDA EAST COAST AND A FEW LOCATIONS FURTHER INLAND FROM THEEAST COAST. OTHERWISE...A PARTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKY WILL PREVAILTODAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S STATEWIDE.

FLORIDA TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE

PRODUCT HEADER: MIASTPFL

ISSUING OFFICE: WFO Miami

WHY ISSUED: This product gives the recorded high and low temperatures, and measured rainfall during the past 12 (PM issuance) and 24 hour (AM issuance)periods.

ISSUED FOR: All available reporting stations within the state of Florida.

WHY ISSUED: Statistical summary of previous month's weather at Key West International Airport. Includes monthly average, high/low temperatures (departures from normal); monthly and year to date precipitation (departures from normal): heating/cooling degree days; highest /lowest daily temperature and highest daily rainfall during the month; any daily/monthly temperature or rainfall records that were set; highest and lowest sea level pressure during the month.

THE RECORD FOR MAXIMUM PRECIPITATION IN 24 HOURS FOR THE DATE AT KEYWEST HAS BEEN BROKEN. ON AUGUST 2ND KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORTHAD RECEIVED 2.49 INCHES OF RAINFALL WHICH BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF2.09 INCHES SET ON 2 AUGUST 1880.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

PRODUCT HEADER: MIATWOAT

ISSUING OFFICE: TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER (TPC/NHC)

WHY ISSUED: Summarizes significant areas of disturbed weather, including location, and potential for development (with brief non-technical explanation when possible). Also includes current tropical cyclones, their general locations, and references to product identifiers for their respective advisories.

DIMINISHING CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLESARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.UPPER-LEVEL WINDS DO NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT..AT LEASTFOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT THREEHUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVINGWESTWARD AND...CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINAL FOR DEVELOPMENT. LATEYESTERDAY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTED A SURFACE CIRCULATIONMIGHT BE FORMING. AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE IS TENTATIVELY SCHEDULEDTO INVESTIGATE THE AREA ON TOMORROW.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT

PRODUCT HEADER: MIADSAAT

ISSUING OFFICE: TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER (TPC/NHC)

WHY ISSUED: To furnish information about strong formative systems which have yet to reach depression status. The statement will also list the anticipated weather threats of the system, usually torrential rainfall or squally weather.

A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOMEBETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND SHOWS SIGNS OF A VERYSMALL LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION ALONG WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVYTHUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 20 MPH. IFTHERE IS ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE UPGRADEDTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM PUBLIC ADVISORY

PRODUCT HEADER: MIATCPAT (1,2,3,4,5)

ISSUING OFFICE: TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER (TPC/NHC)

WHY ISSUED: Issued for all systems which attain tropical storm (named) status. Headlines any tropical cyclone watches/warnings currently in effect, and includes the system's location (both latitude/longitude and with respect to land areas), maximum sustained winds, minimum central pressure, current and forecast movement (speed/direction) and a brief synopsis of the storm's anticipated effects on any warning areas.

ISSUED FOR: Any named system within the Atlantic hurricane basin

TIMES ISSUED: Every six hours for scheduled advisories. Intermediate advisories are issued every two or three hours in between whenever a hurricane or tropical storm warning is in effect. Times of issuance for scheduled advisories are 5:00 AM/PM and 11:00 AM/PM (subtract 1 hour during EST).

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM JUST NORTH OF DEERFIELDBEACH FLORIDA TO BRUNSWICK GEORGIA. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS INEFFECT FROM JUST NORTH OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA TO THE NORTHCAROLINA/VIRGINIA STATE LINE...INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLESOUNDS. WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE HURRICANEWATCH AREA LATER TODAY.

THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS ANDCAICOS ISLANDS IS DISCONTINUED.

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATEDNEAR LATITUDE 25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.7 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES...145 KM...EAST OF ELEUTHERA ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH ...29 KM/HR...ANDA GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24HOURS. BUT UNTIL THIS OCCURS...BERTHA WILL MOVE CLOSER TO FLORIDAWHICH IS THE BASIS FOR THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ALONG PORTIONS OFTHE FLORIDA EAST COAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...AND SOMEFLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ISPOSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THEFLORIDA EAST COAST. HEAVY SURF CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ALONG PORTIONSOF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

SMALL CRAFT IN THE WARNING AREAS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATHOF THE HURRICANE.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND AIR FORCERECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT DANNY IS CENTEREDFARTHER TO THE NORTH...CLOSER TO THE COAST OF SOUTHERN NEWENGLAND...THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. AT 8 AM...1200Z...THE CENTEROF DANNY IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 40.0N 70.4W...AND IS MOVINGTOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE 50 KNOTS...60 MPH...WITH STRONGEST WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CENTER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED AT 830 AM EDT...1230Z...FORSOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS FROM WOODS HOLE TO PLYMOUTH... INCLUDING NANTUCKET ISLAND AND MARTHAS VINEYARD. A SPECIALADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY TO UPDATE THE FORECAST.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM JUST NORTH OF DEERFIELDBEACH FLORIDA TO BRUNSWICK GEORGIA. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS INEFFECT FROM JUST NORTH OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA TO THE NORTHCAROLINA/VIRGINIA STATE LINE...INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLESOUNDS. WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE HURRICANEWATCH AREA LATER TODAY.

THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS ANDCAICOS ISLANDS IS DISCONTINUED.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 74.7W AT 10/0900ZPOSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BEFOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT2 AND WMO HEADER WTNT72 KNHC.

HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM STRIKE PROBABILITIES

PRODUCT HEADER: MIASPFAT (1,2,3,4,5)

ISSUING OFFICE: TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER (TPC/NHC)

WHY ISSUED: A table which lists the probabilities of the tropical cyclone passing within 65 nautical miles of selected coastal locations. They are broken down intofour periods: 0-24, 24-36, 36-48, and 48-72 hours from the time of issuance.

COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENTA IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM TUEFOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIESB FROM 8PM TUE TO 8AM WEDC FROM 8AM WED TO 8PM WEDD FROM 8PM WED TO 8PM THUE IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM THUX MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

RECON OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT THE EYEWALL HAD DETERIORATED BUTTHEN REAPPEARED A FEW HOURS LATER. CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS HOLDINGNEAR 972 MB AND THE PLANE REPORTED SOME VERY WARM TEMPS...18 TO 19DEG C AT 700 MB...IN THE CENTER. BERTHA HAS VERY INTENSE CONVECTIONNEAR THE CENTER AND SOME BANDING FEATURES...BUT NO EYE IS SEEN INTHE IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS STRONG EXCEPT OVERTHE NORTHWEST QUADRANT...WHERE IT IS PROBABLY BEING INHIBITED BY THEBACK SIDE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WHICH IS PROPAGATING EASTWARD.CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 85 KNOTS BUT THIS MAY BE INFLATED ABIT...CONSIDERING THE LATEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA. LITTLESIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST. HOWEVER...AFTER THETROUGH PASSES THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT BERTHA COULD INTENSIFY ALITTLE SINCE THE HURRICANE IS OVER WARM WATER AND COULD PASS OVEREVEN WARMER WATERS...I.E. THE GULF STREAM.

THE FORWARD SPEED HAS SLOWED SOME MORE...TO 330/11. AT 500 MB...THEMID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT HAS DRAWN BERTHA MORE NORTHWARD IS NOWAPPROXIMATELY IN PHASE WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS TROUGH WILLMOVE ON...AND PRESUMABLY LEAVE BERTHA BEHIND. THE NEXT UPSTREAMTROUGH LOOKS MUCH WEAKER IN THE EMC GLOBAL MODEL PREDICTIONS...ANDIT APPEARS THAT BERTHA WILL NEED TO REACH THE LATITUDE OF THECAROLINAS BEFORE IT CAN BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED BY THIS TROUGH.THERE IS A STRONG DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OFBERTHA. THE LATTER FEATURE SHOULD PROVIDE A NORTHWARD STEERINGCOMPONENT TO KEEP THE HURRICANE MOVING ALONG AT AROUND 10-11 KNOTS.UNFORTUNATELY...IT APPEARS THAT THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL PREVENT THETROPICAL CYCLONE FROM TURNING SIGNIFICANTLY EASTWARD BEFORE ITREACHES THE COASTLINE. THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY THAT BERTHACOULD RECURVE EASTWARD AND MISS THE COAST ENTIRELY AS SHOWN BY THEBAROTROPIC GUIDANCE. HOWEVER ALL OF OUR PRIMITIVE EQUATIONGUIDANCE... INCLUDING THE GFDL MODEL...BRING THE HURRICANEOVER LAND WITHIN 36 HOURS...AND SO DOES OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THE LANDFALL TIMING IS CRITICALLY DEPENDENT ON THE HEADING OF BERTHAWHEN IT APPROACHES THE COAST. OUR PRESENT THINKING IS THAT THECENTER WILL BE NEAR THE COAST ON FRIDAY. ONE SHOULD BEAR IN MINDTHAT THIS IS A LARGE HURRICANE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD BENEAR THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA MUCH EARLIER...BY THIS EVENING. PASCH

WHY ISSUED: Issued for an area threatened by a hurricane/tropical storm, and gives specific details on expected weather conditions, evacuation decisions made by local emergency management officials, and other necesary precautions that should be undertaken in order to protect life and property.

ISSUED FOR: Covers all of the Florida Keys and adjacent coastal waters.

TIMES ISSUED: As warranted, updated every 3 or 6 hours.

ZCZC MIAHLSEYWTTAA00 KEYW 141035FLZ076-077-078-141330-

HURRICANE FLOYD LOCAL STATEMENT630 AM EDT TUE SEP 14 1999

...THE OUTER CIRCULATION OF LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE FLOYD WILLCAUSE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS IN PARTS OF THE UPPER AND MIDDLEKEYS TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...

...AREAS AFFECTED...THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO PEOPLE IN ALL PARTS OF THE KEYS OF MONROECOUNTY FLORIDA CONCERNING THE EFFECTS OF HURRICANE FLOYD.

...WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE UPPER AND MIDDLEFLORIDA KEYS AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...FROM THE SEVEN-MILEBRIDGE NORTHWARD TO ANGELFISH KEY. THIS INCLUDES FLORIDA BAY.A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER KEYS. A SMALL CRAFTADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM PIGEON KEY TO DRY TORTUGAS AND THEADJACENT FLORIDA STRAITS OUT TO 50 NAUTICAL MILES...AND FOR THEWATERS FROM KEY WEST TO CAPE SABLE.

...HURRICANE INFORMATION...AT 5 AM EDT HURRICANE FLOYD WAS CENTERED ABOUT 375 MILES EAST OF KEYWEST OR ABOUT 275 MILES EAST OF KEY LARGO. FLOYD WAS MOVINGWEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN EVEN MORE TO THENORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR155 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAKING IT A POWERFUL CATEGORY 4STORM...JUST ONE MPH BELOW A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE. ONLY TWO CATEGORY5 HURRICANES HAVE EVER HIT THE U.S. THIS CENTURY...INCLUDING THELABOR DAY HURRICANE OF 1935 THAT DEVASTATED PARTS OF THE FLORIDAKEYS.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS...THERE ARE NO EVACUATION ORDERSFOR MONROE COUNTY. HOWEVER...MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENTADVISES EVERYONE IN THE KEYS TO STAY TUNED TO FUTURE REPORTS.

SEVERAL PRECAUTIONARY MEASURES ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT ACCORDING TOMONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS...

MONROE COUNTY SHELTERS THAT ARE OPEN ARE KEY LARGO ELEMENTARY SCHOOLAND STANLEY SWITLIK ELEMENTARY SCHOOL IN MARATHON.

ALL MONROE COUNTY SCHOOLS ARE CLOSED TO STUDENTS TODAY.

ALL COUNTY AND STATE PARKS ARE CLOSED.

ALL COUNTY OFFICES FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO THE NORTH END OFKEY LARGO ARE CLOSED TODAY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY SOME OTHER COUNTYOFFICES MAY BE CLOSED WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TODAY.

ALSO...ALL BRIDGES IN THE FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING THE SEVEN MILEBRIDGE IS STILL OPEN AS OF 6 AM.

MONROE COUNTY RUMOR CONTROL TELEPHONE NUMBER IS 1-800-955-5504.

ALL PERSONS IN THE UPPER AND MIDDLE KEYS ARE URGED TO STAY OFFROADS...ESPECIALLY ON THE 18 MILE STRETCH AND CARD SOUND ROAD. THEREHAVE BEEN REPORTS FROM EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT THAT WATER WAS VERYCLOSE TO PARTS OF THE 18 MILE STRETCH OF U.S. 1 DURING THE LAST HIGHTIDE MONDAY EVENING...AND SEA SPRAY WAS CAUSING LOW VISIBILITY AT TIMES. IFYOU MUST BE ON THE ROAD TODAY...PLEASE DRIVE WITH EXTREME CARE.

PERSONS ATTEMPTING TO DRIVE NORTH FROM THE KEYS TO THE MAINLANDSHOULD BE AWARE THAT EVACUATION TRAFFIC ALONG THE ENTIRE FLORIDAEAST COAST IS LIKELY EXTREMELY HEAVY. IF TRAVEL TO THE MAINLAND ISABSOLUTELY REQUIRED TODAY...IT WOULD BE BEST TO AVOID THETURNPIKE...INTERSTATE 95..AND U.S. 1 FROM MIAMI-DADE COUNTYNORTHWARD.

AIRLINE COMMUTERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT MOST AIRLINES FLYING IN ANDOUT OF MIAMI INTERNATIONAL AND FORT LAUDERDALE INTERNATIONAL HAVEALREADY CANCELED FLIGHTS. BOTH OF THOSE AIRPORTS ARE EXPECTED TOSUSPEND FLIGHT OPERATIONS DURING TODAY.

...STORM SURGE FLOODING/TIDES/OTHER MARINE HAZARDS...SOME MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW WILL OCCUR ALONG THE UPPER AND MIDDLEKEYS...NEAR THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.ALREADY...SOME SPOTS OF U.S. 1 NORTH OF KEY LARGO HAD WATER VERYCLOSE TO THE ROAD AND AS THE HURRICANE MOVES CLOSER TO LANDADDITIONAL FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED. THERE COULD BE ANADDITIONAL PROBLEM OF WATER PILING UP IN FLORIDA BAY LATE TONIGHTAND WEDNESDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO MORE WESTERLY.

TIMES OF THE HIGH TIDES ARE THESE...OCEAN REEF HARBOR...NORTH END OF KEY LARGO 1217 PM TUE 1225 AM WED 101 PM WED

KEY LARGO...LARGO SOUTH SOUND 1250 PM TUE 1258 AM WED 134 PM WED

MARATHON (VACA KEY) 1224 PM TUE 1214 AM WED 108 PM WED

THE WESTERN SIDE OF CARD SOUND ROAD 318 PM TUE 316 AM WED 402 PM WED

MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT TODAY OF THE UPPER AND MIDDLE KEYSWATERS...WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT. SMALL CRAFTADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER KEYS. WIND WAVESTODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL REACH AS HIGH 8 TO 12 FEET OVER OPEN WATERSTHE KEYS. ALSO...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED ON THE WEST SIDE OF FLOYDWILL PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AFFECTINGFLORIDA STRAITS WATERS OF THE UPPER AND MIDDLE KEYS TODAY ANDTONIGHT. MARINERS IN THE LOWER KEYS SHOULD MONITOR LATER WEATHERISSUANCES...AND BE ALERT TO POSSIBLY DETERIORATING WEATHER...WINDAND SEAS.

...WIND IMPACTS...FLOYD CONTINUES TO BE VERY LARGE IN SIZE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDSEXTEND OUT 150 MILES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF FLOYDS CENTER...AND 190MILES TO THE NORTHWEST. ACCORDING TO EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...SOME OFTHESE WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN IMPACTING THE OCEAN REEF AREA OF UPPERKEY LARGO AND FOWEY ROCKS LIGHT OFF MIAMI HAS BEEN REPORTING WINDGUSTS PAST 40 MPH MOST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

WIND ACROSS THE WATERS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVEBEEN 25 TO 30 MPH SUSTAINED...WITH GUSTS AT TIMES NEAR 35 MPH. WINDDIRECTION HAS BEEN MOSTLY FROM THE NORTH...EXCEPT NORTH TO NORTHEASTAT DRY TORTUGAS.

WIND AT THE AIRPORTS FROM MARATHON TO KEY WEST HAVE BEEN NORTH ASHIGH AS NEAR 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 TO 30 MPH.

BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICALSTORM FORCE WILL SPREAD SLOWLY DOWN THE KEYS TODAY. DURING THISMORNING MOST OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR GREATERWILL OCCUR IN THE UPPER KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS...POSSIBLYREACHING THE MIDDLE KEYS AND THE ADJACENT WATERS THIS AFTERNOON ASFLOYD MAKES IT CLOSEST PASS TO THE KEYS. WIND GUSTS MAY EVEN EXCEED50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM KEY LARGO TO OCEAN REEF IFFLOYD TRACKS CLOSER TO THE AREA.

WINDS ACROSS THE LOWER KEYS AND THE ADJACENT WATERS WILL ONLY BESLIGHTLY LOWER DURING TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTSPAST 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 MPH OR GREATER WILLOCCUR OVER THE LOWER KEYS TODAY PROMPTING A WIND ADVISORY. DRIVEWITH EXTREME CARE TODAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE BRIDGES AS THE WIND WILLBE PERPENDICULAR TO U.S. 1

WIND DIRECTION ACROSS THE KEYS AND ADJACENT MARINE AREA WILL BEMAINLY NORTH THIS MORNING...SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON ANDTHEN TO WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT.

ALSO...WIND COULD BE EVEN STRONGER IF ANY OUTER RAINBANDS FROM FLOYDMAKE IT INTO THE KEYS.

...RAINFALL INFORMATION...ALTHOUGH THERE CAN BE OCCASIONAL DOWNPOURS OF RAIN IN ANY RAINBANDTHAT DOES MOVE THROUGH THE KEYS...NO WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS WILLOCCUR DUE TO THE FAST MOVEMENT AND THE LOCATION OF FLOYD IN RELATIONTO THE KEYS. IF FLOYD TURNS MORE SHARPLY TO THE NORTHWEST THERE ISEVEN A POSSIBILITY THAT MUCH OF THE RAINBANDS STAY NORTH AND EAST OFTHE AREA.

AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING THE CLOSEST RAINBAND TO THE KEYS WAS NOTQUITE TO ANDROS ISLAND. KEY WEST AND MIAMI RADARS AT 6 AM WEREALMOST FREE OF DETECTING ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH FLOYD.

BESIDES THE WEB SITE AT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...ADDITIONALWEB SITES FOR HURRICANE ADVISORY INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED THROUGHFLORIDA WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES THROUGH THE FOLLOWING ADDRESSES:

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED ALONG THE TEXASCOAST FROM BROWNSVILLE TO PORT ARANSAS...

ALTHOUGH TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED FOR THE SOUTH TEXASCOAST...YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI URGESALL INTEREST TO EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTSOF BEE...CALHOUN...VICTORIA...LIVE OAK...WEBB...GOLIAD...JIMWELLS...ARANSAS...SAN PATRICIO...LA SALLE...DUVAL...REFUGIONUECES...MCMULLEN AND KLEBERG COUNTIES.

AT 400 PM CDT...TROPICAL STORM BRET WAS LOCATED ABOUT 30 MILESNORTHEAST OF LAREDO NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 99.1WEST. TROPICAL STORM BRET CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWEST NEAR 6MPH...A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. TROPICALSTORM BRET IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATERTONIGHT.

...WIND INFORMATION...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THECOASTAL BEND AND ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. EXPECT WIND GUSTSBETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH THROUGHOUT THESE AREAS. A HIGH WIND WARNINGREMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE COUNTIES OF WEBB AND LASALLE WITH AWIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ALL REMAINING AREAS EXCEPT THE COUNTIESOF GOLIAD...VICTORIA...AND CALHOUN.

...HEAVY RAINS...FLASH FLOODING FROM VERY HEAVY TROPICAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AMAJOR THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. ADDITIONALRAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH HIGHERAMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED AREAS. AT 400 PM...FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY THROUGHOUT LOW LYING AREAS...CONTINUED ACROSS MUCH OF THECOASTAL BEND INCLUDING THE CORPUS CHRISTI METROPOLITAN AREA.REMEMBER...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND A RIVER FLOOD WATCH REMAIN INEFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS TODAY.

...TIDES...AS OF 400 PM...TIDES WERE RUNNING AROUND 1 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. THISLEVEL HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE SINCE BRET MOVED INLAND. AS ARESULT...THE THREAT FOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.

...WAVES...THE WAVES GENERATED BY TROPICAL STORM BRET WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLYDIMINISH. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 8 FEET LATER THIS EVENINGACROSS THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER...THE WATERS WILL CONTINUETO BE QUITE TURBULENT AND WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SUBSIDE. AS ARESULT... MARINERS SHOULD EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION.

...TORNADO THREAT...THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTH TEXASTHROUGH THIS EVENING. AS THE SQUALLS FROM BRET CONTINUE TOMAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS...A BRIEF TORNADO MAY BEPOSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE THREAT WILL REMAIN ISOLATED AND WILLCONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. RESIDENTS SHOULD ACTQUICKLY IF A TORNADO IS OBSERVED...OR IF THE NATIONAL WEATHERSERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI ISSUES A TORNADO WARNING.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST SCHEDULED TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT ONTROPICAL STORM BRET UNLESS CONDITIONS WARRANT ADDITIONAL RELEASES.