The Big Downside of the Senate’s Delayed Health-Care Vote

So Mitch McConnell blinked. After posturing that they were going to hold a vote on their terriblehealth-care bill before the July 4 break, regardless of whether or not they had the votes to pass it, the Senate majority leader decided to change his mind and punt the vote until after the recess because he simply doesn't have the votes. Now, it would be easy for the Democrats to take this turn of events as a win, because the left is in desperate need of anything resembling momentum right now. Keeping this vote from occurring before senators head home for their recesses to face angry constituents who by all accounts HATE this bill is definitely better than the alternative, but this fight is far from over.

For one thing, this is exactly what happened in the House. For a moment, it seemed like Obamacare was saved when Paul Ryan had to pull the terrible and unpopular AHCA vote, but that success was short-lived. Ryan and his cronies went away and came back with a bill that was somehow worse and more unpopular than the first version of the bill. Why? Because Ryan could abandon some moderate votes if he could convince the ultra-conservative Freedom Caucus to vote for it. As long as he was willing to buy off a few reps with carve-outs for their states, [coughBuffalo Bribecough] he had enough votes to get it done. What does this have to do with the Senate version of the bill? Well, there are nine Republican Senators currently against the legislation:

For this bill to pass, Mitch McConnell can afford to lose two Republican senators. If he follows Paul Ryan's playbook, that's going to mean that the bill isn't going to have to appeal to moderates to pass; it's going to get meaner and more cutthroat in an effort to appeal to the ultra-conservative contingent of Cruz, Paul, Johnson, and Lee.

So let's say that happens. Now McConnell needs to flip three more senators. On first blush, Heller and Collins seem like safe "no" votes. Heller is up for re-election in 2018 in Nevada, a state that Hillary won, and he recently used some pretty crystal-clear language to voice his displeasure with the bill. Collins, meanwhile, said her issues with the bill are "fundamental" and that "tinkering" wasn't going to change things.

That brings us to the last three senators. McConnell needs all three to get to 50 votes so Mike Pence can break a tie in his favor. Portman seems the easiest get. He expressed the need for more funding for Ohio's opioid crisis. A carve-out could very well bring him along. Capito and Moran are more complicated. Moran's statement seemed to mostly express that he's glad that the vote was delayed so they can take more time to fully consider the bill, while Capito felt like the Medicaid cuts in the bill would decimate her state of West Virginia, which has the nation's largest population of recipients.

Are there deals to be made that could swing these last two votes? I don't know. But what I do know is that in the lead-up to the AHCA, it seemed like Ryan would be unable to get the Freedom Caucus without losing the Tuesday group and vice versa. They found a way to pass it. So even though we're in good shape right now? There's no telling what a couple backroom deals could do for McConnell's chances. The only thing we can do now is keep calling our senators, until no deal seems worth facing the wrath of their constituents.