Note: I wrote much of this prior to the 7/2/19 games, so a few roster moves and observations may be missing. Also, feel free to add in more detailed commentary for those who have studied the players more closely in a particular level; i did not do “just last month” splits on every single player so some players who have significantly improved upon slow starts (or the reverse) may be missed.

AAA/Fresno 2019

Rotation Now: Fedde, JRoss, McGowin, Hoover, Braymer

Rotation Mid-May: Voth, McGowin, Copeland, Espino, MSanchez.

Rotation to Start: McGowin, Copeland, Voth, Espino, Alvarez

Changes in the rotation since last post: Voth has earned his promotion, and then earned more starts over Fedde at the MLB level. It looks like the “hey lets use Joe Ross as a reliever” experiment is finally over; he’s been returned to Fresno to officially get stretched out and return to the rotation. Espino is on the DL, replaced by Hoover (who suddenly at 31 is a starter after years of pitching in relief?). Sanchez got demoted and replaced by Braymer, who just arrived. Lastly Copeland has been returned to the long-man/spot starter role. The sole holdover from 6 weeks ago is McGowin … but what this doesn’t show is his own up-and-back movement. Lots of shuffle in the Fresno rotation.

I’d like to highlight Ben Braymer though, because his being in AAA is pretty amazing. He was an 18th round pick in 2016, signed for just $100k out of Auburn, and now sits in the AAA rotation at the edge of the majors. I don’t think the Nats have seen such a low-round pick make it this far since perhaps Stephen Lombardozzi, a 19th rounder in 2008.

Changes in the bullpen since last post: Rainey promoted … and immediately became Nats bullpen savior of the week. Hoover now in the rotation. Nunu cut loose after posting a 7.25 ERA in 22 innings. Mills sent back down. Bourque was promoted to the majors from AA, then optioned back to AAA. Baez promoted from AA. Kontos signed. Copeland dumped to bullpen. Rodney signed and quickly promoted. Lastly Cordero, who was in DFA limbo last post, was claimed by Toronto and is gone. Phew; that’s 10 different moves for the team, just 3 guys in the same place they were 6 weeks ago, and just two stable names from day one.

Who’s hot: Dakota Bacus continues to be the most impressive reliever in AAA, maintaining a seasonal ERA of 2.36 and a whip of 1.19. Ross’ numbers as a starter in Fresno are respectable; 3.68 ERA in 5 starts with just 4 walks.

Who’s not? Kontos has not been good so far, but a lot of his ERA is one bad outing in Salt Lake. Howell has gotten shelled in basically each of his last 6-7 outings and looks toast from the stat sheets.

Who’s next guy to get the call? I think Bacus deserves the next call-up, perhaps over Bourque even though he’s not on the 40-man. I’d like to see Ross get the next spot start, on regular rest.

Who’s next to get the Axe? I think the team may be reaching the end of the line with over-30 MLFA guys like Kontos and Hoover, now that they’ve got a slew of new draft picks in.

How are we doing with these mini-predictions so far?

April: Adams and Voth to get the call, Dragmire to get the Axe. Results? Adams released (?), Voth now in Majors, Dragmire now demoted.

May: Voth, Rainey to get the call. Hoover, Mills, Sanchez, Dragmire to get the Axe. Results: Voth, Rainey now in Majors. Mills, Sanchez, Dragmire demoted. Hoover still hanging in there.

AA/Harrisburg 2019

Rotation Now: Mapes, Fuentes, MSanchez, Tetreault,Crowe with ALee just called up

Rotation Mid-May: Crowe, Tetreault, Sharp, Mapes, Braymer

Rotation to Start: Crowe, Fedde, Sharp, Mapes, Braymer*

Changes since last post: Sharp to the D/L, replaced by Fuentes. Braymer got bumped up, replaced by MSanchez coming back down. Lastly Lee just got promoted and may be taking someone’s spot.

Changes since last post: Bourque up, Baez up. Fuentes moved from swingman to rotation. Ondrusek bounced around, he’s currently on the AAA D/L. Mills was up and is now back. Bonnell was signed after being dropped by Tampa and has been pretty solid. Venters was signed, appeared briefly and was called up for bullpen reinforcement duty. Lastly Dragmire is dumped here after posting a double digit ERA in Fresno.

Who’s hot: Steven Fuentes has continued right where he left off in High-A, and holds a 1.80 ERA in 11 appearances/7 starts in AA. He’s only 22. I’m guessing we’re going to start seeing more of him on Nats top10 farm lists if he keeps this up.

Who’s not? Nobody is pitching egregiously bad honestly; Mapes and Tetreault are both posting worse than you’d like to see numbers but Tetreault is just 23 and is in AA for the first time. Mapes is a bit more concerning; he’s now 27, in his 6th pro season, was a 30th round pick probably given a 4-figure bonus, and the team has almost nothing invested in him.

Who’s next guy to get the call? Barrett? I wonder what else he has to prove in AA at this point. I’d say its a bit too early to promote Fuentes, and the rest of the rotation needs more time in AA.

Who’s next to get the Axe? Mapes may be at the end of the line, given his draft pedigree.

How are we doing with these mini-predictions so far?

April: Crowe, Fedde to get the call. Sharp, Gilbeau to get the Axe. Results? Fedde up, the rest still hanging in there

May: Crowe, Bourque to get the call. Pena to get the Axe. Results? Bourque up, Crowe and Pena still hanging in AA.

High-A/Potomac 2019

Rotation Now: Johnston, Raquet*, Cate*, ?, MPena (the question mark is because Lee got promoted the day we were writing this)

Changes since last post: Borne to the D/L, Lee promoted. To replace them we got Cate from Low-A and a question mark the be filled (if it were me) by Teel. Otherwise a very steady rotation here: 3 of the 5 havn’t changed since opening day.

Changes from last time: Istler returns from XST/witness protection. Fletcher promoted from low-A, along with Pantoja (and Teel, and Cate: we’ve seen 5 promotions so far). Bogucki released.

Who’s hot: I like what I see out of Teel and Fletcher so far, both mid-season promotions. Fletcher has a 24/5 K/BB ratio since being promoted a few weeks back, and Teel has now made it to his 4th pro level since being drafted last June. Amazingly, Reyes seems to have found his calling, going 10 straight outings without giving up a run.

Who’s not? Raquet has the worst WHIP of the rotation, and Pena the worst ERA. Yet both remain mainstays in the Potomac bullpen. Raquet is putting up almost identical numbers to last year, but as a high-bonus 3rd rounder probably gets more rope than a similarly producing 15th rounder. Pena is just 22 but may be working towards another year in Potomac.

Who’s next guy to get the call? Istler really should be in AA; he’s given up zero runs in 10 High-A innings, which shouldn’t be a surprise since he spent most of last year in AA posting a 2.53 ERA. Why exactly is he in Potomac?

Who’s next to get the Axe? Unclear; McKinney’s season numbers are poor but he’s pitched a number of clean outings since his return from the D/L. Cate’s first two starts havn’t been stellar. I don’t have a great case for anyone to get demoted or cut.

How are we doing with these mini-predictions so far?

April: Tetreault and Fuentes up. Reyes and Bourne to get the axe.. Results? Both Tetreault and Fuentes since promoted. Reyes dumped from the rotation finally, Borne on the D/L.

May: Nobody to get the call. Bogucki and Reyes to get the Axe. Results? Bogucki indeed released, Reyes demoted to the pen but succeeding in new role.

Changes since last post: Cate Promoted, Peguero to the D/L. To replace them we’ve seen Schaller promoted up from XST/GCL and Stoeckinger pulled from the tandem starter ranks. Like with Potomac, 3 of the 5 starters the same since opening day.

changes since last post: Howell returns to the fold after missing all of 2018 with injury. Fletcher promoted. Vann (a 2018 draftee) promoted up from XST/GCL.

Who’s hot: Stoeckinger has earned his spot in the rotation (if, indeed he stays there). 2.54 ERA, 1.19 whip in 39 IP as a tandem starter this year.

Who’s not? Alastre continues to struggle in the rotation; hes now ballooned to a 6.11 ERA and 1.71 whip on the year while repeating the level. He’s only 21 though, so he’s got plenty of time. Howell has struggled since his reinstatement, and he does not have a ton of time, being a lower round pick coming off injury.

Who’s next guy to get the call? Turner has had a nifty time in the Low-A bullpen; 28 Ks in 17 innings. I’d also say Peguero, who has the best stats of any starter, but he’s on teh D/L currently.

Who’s next to get the Axe? Alastre. Howell.

How are we doing with these mini-predictions so far?

April: Peguero and Fletcher up. Alastre to get the Axe. Results? Peguero hurt, Fletcher up, Alastre still in the rotation.

Its a little early to pass judgement on the starts out of Auburn, but we’ll do it anyway. I will note though that with recent 2019 draftee assignments, there’s now TWENTY (20) arms on the squad. So you have to wonder if we’re about to see some shedding.

Who’s hot: Niomar Gomez has had 3 solid starts to begin the season, picking up where he left off last year. Troop, in his 3rd pro season, has yet to give up a run while posting a 12/0 K/BB ratio in two starts and needs to be moved up. Strom looks solid, after struggling in Low-A, and may be stuck between levels.

Who’s not? 18yr old Pedro Gonzalez has had 3 starts; in those 3 starts he’s pitched a grand total of 4 innings, given up 13 hits 5 walks and 18 total runs. Those are Trevor Rosenthal numbers. He had a 9.60 ERA in the GCL last year; why exactly is he in Short-A going against college draftees 4 years his senior?

Who’s next guy to get the call? Troop

Who’s next to get the Axe? Gonzalez.

Rookie/GCL 2019

rotation: Denaburg, Alvarado/Seijas, Yean, Pozo, Rutledge, Peterson

tandem starters: Hiraldo, BPena*, Beasley

bullpen: Jameson, WSeverino, Amoroso, Dyson, Ferrer*, Cuevas, Ribalta

We’re basically one “turn” through the GCL rotation, and now we have 1st round pick Jackson Rutledge in Florida for (presumably) a short stay. Surprise 2019 signees Michael Cuevas and Orlando Ribalta are also here and may themselves be in the rotation (they were just assigned yesterday or today).

The Big News here is Mason Denaburg of course. He’s finally on a team and pitching professionally. Through two starts, he’s given up a couple runs in 7 innings, with a few too many walks.

Who’s hot: too early

Who’s not? too early.

Who’s next guy to get the call? Rutledge really shouldn’t be here long. Neither should Tyler Dyson, 5th round 2019 pick from Florida. And neither should Todd Peterson, 7th round pick out of LSU. Generally speaking, SEC starters are Short-A talents at worst, and should be fast tracked to Low-A

Who’s next to get the Axe? nobody.

XST names of interest

Why hasn’t Nick Wells been assigned to a level yet?? He was traded for weeks ago.

Robbie Dickey has not pitched since 2016, yet still remains in XST.

4th rounder Matt Cronin has yet to be assigned to a team; i’m really curious to see if he can move fast.