Newsline - January 6, 1998

January 06, 1998 00:00 GMT

Share

Newsline - January 6, 1998

share

YELTSIN'S TRIP TO INDIA POSTPONED

The presidential
press service on 6 January confirmed that Boris Yeltsin's
trip to India, scheduled for mid-January, has been
postponed "by mutual decision" and will be rescheduled for
later this year. Interfax on 5 January quoted unnamed
Russian diplomatic sources as saying the trip has been
delayed because of "important domestic political events in
India," which is due to hold general elections in February.
Last month, presidential spokesman Sergei Yastrzhembskii
said Yeltsin's trip could go ahead in January, since the
domestic political situation in India does not affect
Russian-Indian relations. The postponement is likely to
increase speculation about Yeltsin's health, although
unnamed diplomatic sources quoted by Interfax said the
president still plans to visit Italy in either late January or
early February. LB

FINANCE MINISTER ON OTHER WAGE ARREARS
PROBLEM...

Mikhail Zadornov told reporters on 5 January
that the government has kept its promise to pay all back
wages to state employees, Interfax reported. However, he
noted that Russian enterprises currently owe wage arrears
totaling some 40-45 trillion rubles, not taking into account
the recent redenomination of the ruble ($6.7-7.5 billion).
Many of those enterprises cannot pay their employees
because they are owed huge debts by their own consumers.
The government has not announced specific measures
aimed at reducing the level of non-payments in the Russian
economy. First Deputy Prime Minister Anatolii Chubais told
a cabinet meeting in November that solving the non-
payments crisis will be the government's main task in 1998
and 1999, Interfax reported on 6 November. LB

...AND ON RUSSIAN BORROWING PLANS

Although he
acknowledged that tax receipts in the first few months of
1998 will likely be lower than during the fourth quarter of
last year, Zadornov announced on 5 January that the
government will not borrow any more money through
short-term treasury bills (GKOs) until the cost of
borrowing through GKOs drops to "an acceptable level,"
ITAR-TASS reported. The turmoil on world financial
markets in recent months caused many Russian and foreign
investors to sell GKOs, making it far more expensive for
the government to borrow on the domestic market. The
government consequently took out more foreign loans (see
"RFE/RL Newsline," 22 and 29 December 1997). LB

'NEZAVISIMAYA GAZETA' SAYS GOVERNMENT FAILED
TO PAY DEBTS

"Nezavisimaya gazeta" charged on 31
December that amid the noisy campaign to pay wage
arrears to state employees, the government has been
quiet about its debt of some 12 trillion rubles ($2 billion)
to the armed forces. In a separate article published the
same day, the newspaper said the government has also
failed to pay for numerous state orders. Consequently,
many industrial workers are still owed large wage arrears.
"Nezavisimaya gazeta," financed by Boris Berezovskii's
LogoVAZ group, has strongly criticized the cabinet
ministers who are most directly associated with efforts to
clear wage arrears by the end of the year: First Deputy
Prime Ministers Chubais and Boris Nemtsov. LB

FINANCE MINISTER BLAMES MILITARY LEADERSHIP
FOR WAGE DEBTS

Zadornov claimed on 5 January that the
Defense Ministry received 31.7 trillion rubles ($5.3 billion)
in funding in 1997, some 1.8 trillion rubles more than the
planned spending level. He did not specify whether he was
speaking about the original 1997 budget targets or about
planned expenditures after the government imposed a
"sequester," or reduction in spending, in May. Zadornov
blamed the Defense Ministry leadership for wage arrears
to military personnel, adding that order in paying soldiers'
wages can be restored only after the Defense Ministry's
bank accounts are moved from commercial banks to a
federal treasury. Many accounts for government agencies
have been transferred from "authorized" commercial banks
to the treasury, but an exception was made for Defense
Ministry accounts (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 19 December
1997). LB

HAS INFLATION BEEN CONQUERED?

The annual inflation
rate in Russia was 11.3 percent in 1997, down from 21.8
percent the previous year, ITAR-TASS reported on 5
January, citing the State Statistics Committee. The
government has forecast that inflation will fall to 5.7
percent in 1998. But in an interview published in "Trud" on 4
January, Igor Gadzhinsk, the head of the Economics
Ministry's department on price monitoring, argued that it
is too early to proclaim victory over inflation. He noted
that the inflation rate has declined primarily because of a
sharp reduction in the money supply. Gadzhinsk argued that
federal transfers of 14.5 trillion rubles ($2.4 billion) toward
paying wage arrears in December will cause inflation to
rise in the first quarter of 1998. He added that costs for
certain essential goods and services have risen faster than
the overall inflation rate. LB

NEW CHECHEN GOVERNMENT TO HAVE DEFENSE
DEPARTMENT

The government being formed by Prime
Minister-designate Shamil Basaev will have only some 20
ministries and agencies, rather than the 63 it has now,
ITAR-TASS reported on 5 January. But one of those
structures will be devoted to defense issues. Basaev is
scheduled to present his cabinet on 10 January. Chechen
officials have indicated that the new government will not
change Chechen insistence that Russian recognize its
independence at any future talks between Moscow and
Grozny. PG

DAGESTANI AUTHORITIES DETAIN WAHHABI LEADER

Police officials in Dagestan have arrested Mukhamed-shafi
Dzhangishiev, the leader of the Kavkaz Center, on suspicion
that he and his group, which includes Wahhabi Muslim
radicals, were involved in the recent attack in Buinaksk
(see "RFE/RL Newsline," 23 December 1997), Interfax
reported on 5 January. PG

YELTSIN PROMISES TO IMPROVE HUMAN RIGHTS

Yeltsin has promised UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan that
Russia will "strengthen [its] human rights legislation" in
1998, AFP reported on 31 December. In a message to Annan
released by the Russian presidential press service, Yeltsin
said that "special importance is attached to protecting the
rights of refugees and forced migrants and improving
prison conditions." Yeltsin issued a decree last April
declaring 1998 the "Year of Human Rights in the Russian
Federation." The same month, Amnesty International
released a report criticizing Russia's human rights record,
particularly prison conditions and asylum procedures. The
State Duma recently approved an amnesty aimed at
alleviating the problem of prison overcrowding (see
"RFE/RL Newsline," 4 April and 30 December 1997). LB

CHERNOMYRDIN FAVORS NEW POLICY ON SUPPORT
FOR MEDIA

Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin says
government concessions for the media should be given
only those outlets that need financial support. In an
interview with the magazine "Zhurnalist," which was also
published in "Rossiiskaya gazeta" on 30 December,
Chernomyrdin argued that the 1995 law on state support
for the mass media is unfair because it grants tax breaks
to all media, from small local newspapers to publications
financed by wealthy bankers. Those tax breaks remain in
effect, but journalists have voiced objections to the
government's proposed tax code, which would revoke the
media's special privileges (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 28
August 1997). Editors of some 20 Moscow-based
newspapers signed an appeal in October urging the
government to retain the tax breaks. LB

GROMOV FORMS NEW VETERANS' MOVEMENT

Duma
deputy Boris Gromov was unanimously elected chairman of
a new movement called Brotherhood of Fighters at its
founding congress in Moscow on 26 December, "Trud" and
"Segodnya" reported the next day. The movement seeks to
unite veterans of all wars and military conflicts since the
Second World War. Gromov, a retired colonel-general who
oversaw the withdrawal of Soviet troops from Afghanistan
in 1989, has said Brotherhood of Fighters' only political
goal is to seek changes in government policy toward
veterans. Other politically active retired generals--most
notably Former Security Council Secretary Aleksandr
Lebed and Duma Defense Committee Chairman Lev Rokhlin-
-were not invited to the congress, nor did any Kremlin
officials attend. However, "Komsomolskaya pravda" argued
on 25 December that the Kremlin may support Gromov as a
potential magnet for some Lebed voters in future
elections. LB

ROKHLIN'S MOVEMENT SEEKING YELTSIN'S OUSTER

The
second congress of Rokhlin's Movement to Support the
Army, which took place in Moscow on 25 December,
approved a political platform outlining the movement's
main goal: the ouster of Yeltsin before his term ends in
2000. Rokhlin announced he will seek to indict Yeltsin and
bring the case to the Supreme Court, although he
acknowledged that he would certainly lose such a court
battle, Interfax reported. The Justice Ministry has so far
declined to register Rokhlin's movement, which held its
founding congress in September. "Segodnya" predicted on
26 December that the platform adopted at the congress
the previous day virtually guarantees that Rokhlin's
movement will not be registered. Rokhlin was elected to
the Duma in December 1995 on the party list of the pro-
government movement Our Home Is Russia, but he has
sharply criticized the government and Yeltsin since late
June 1997. LB

COURT SAYS CIVIL CODE CAN'T PUT WAGE PAYMENTS
BEFORE TAXES...

The Constitutional Court on 23 December
struck down a passage in Article 855 of the civil code
saying that enterprises must pay their employees' salaries
before making tax payments and contributions to non-
budgetary funds such as the Pension Fund. The court ruled
that enterprises have the right to decide whether to pay
taxes or wages first. However, tax authorities have the
right to demand immediate payment of tax arrears.
According to the 24 December edition of "Kommersant-
Daily," the controversy arose after an August 1996
presidential decree ordered that banks transfer taxes
owed by enterprises before transferring funds earmarked
for wages. The Duma in October 1996 adopted a resolution
saying the civil code should take precedence over other
tax regulations. In December of that year, the Supreme
Court upheld the Duma's position but asked the
Constitutional Court to rule on the legality of Article 855.
LB

...WHILE OFFICIALS WELCOME DECISION

Prime Minister
Chernomyrdin hailed the Constitutional Court's ruling,
saying that Article 855 had caused losses to the federal
budget totaling tens of trillions of rubles in tax revenues
in 1997, ITAR-TASS reported on 26 December. He added
that in Russia, people evade taxes whenever possible,
"especially when there is a loophole in the legislation."
(The court found that Article 855 created opportunities for
financial abuses, whereby enterprises artificially
maintained wage debts so as to avoiding making tax
payments, ITAR-TASS reported on 23 December.) Yeltsin
also welcomed the court's ruling, the presidential press
service told Interfax on 24 December. LB

FORMER PRISONER WINS SUIT AGAINST VORONEZH
AUTHORITIES

A district court in Voronezh Oblast has
ruled that the local administration must fulfill its financial
obligations to former political prisoner Georgii
Kusurgashev, "Izvestiya" reported on 6 January.
Kusurgashev filed suit after the Voronezh authorities
ceased in March 1997 to issue compensation payments to
former political prisoners, of whom there are an estimated
10,000 in the oblast. Under a Voronezh government
directive issued before Governor Ivan Shabanov was
elected in December 1996, victims of political repression
during the Soviet period received monthly payments of up
to 34,000 rubles ($6). The Voronezh administration plans to
appeal the court ruling. Shabanov was elected governor
with the support of the Communist Party. LB

SAFE SEX CAMPAIGN DISCONTINUED IN MOSCOW

The
Moscow city authorities have discontinued an advertising
campaign that sought to halt the spread of the AIDS virus
by promoting the use of condoms, "Segodnya" reported on
24 December. In June, the Russian Health Ministry and the
international organization Doctors Without Borders
launched the campaign, which involved billboards, posters,
and television commercials using the slogan, "Safe Sex--
My Choice." The Moscow authorities did not give an official
explanation for the decision to discontinue the campaign.
The television network TV-Center, which is controlled by
the Moscow city government, has also stopped airing the
commercials promoting safe sex. However, other major
television networks continue to broadcast those
advertisements. In addition, billboards on safe sex have
appeared in Kazan, the capital of Tatarstan, and Doctors
Without Borders will soon launch a similar campaign in
Nizhnii Novgorod. LB

GEORGIA, RUSSIA REMAIN AT ODDS OVER ABKHAZIA

Georgia and Russia remain deeply divided over what should
be done in Abkhazia, ITAR-TASS reported on 5 January.
Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze wants the
international community to deploy a Bosnian-style force if
necessary to end the Abkhaz conflict and to do everything
in its power to allow refugees to return. Russia, in contrast,
opposes the use of such a force. A Russian commander in
Abkhazia said on 5 January that deploying international
peacekeeping troops would end all hopes for a solution to
the conflict and possibly lead to a larger war. Meanwhile,
Georgian and Russian defense officials met in Tbilisi on 5
January to discuss how to improve military cooperation. PG

CENTRAL ASIAN PRESIDENTS MEET IN ASHGABAT

The
presidents of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan,
Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan met behind closed doors in
Ashgabat on 5-6 January, RFE/RL correspondents and
Russian media reported. Among the issues on the agenda
were regional cooperation, gas and oil pipelines, and the
situation of the Aral Sea. According to RFE/RL, Uzbek
President Islam Karimov, backed by Kyrgyz President
Askar Akayev, called for improved border security,
particularly along the Turkmen frontiers with Iran and
Afghanistan, to stem the flow of narcotics into their
countries from Afghanistan. ITAR-TASS reported that
Turkmen President Saparmurat Niyazov and Kazakh
President Nursultan Nazarbayev signed a declaration to
step up cooperation toward exporting gas and oil. BP

FORMER AFGHAN PRESIDENT IN TAJIKISTAN

Burhanuddin Rabbani arrived in Dushanbe on 5 January for a
"working visit," ITAR-TASS and Interfax reported. Rabbani
has been engaged in shuttle diplomacy during the last two
weeks, visiting Tehran and Islamabad in a bid to pressure
all sides in the Afghan conflict to begin negotiations. Tajik
President Imomali Rakhmonov is attending the Central
Asian summit in Ashgabat but is expected to meet with
Rabbani upon his return to Tajikistan. ITAR-TASS
speculated that Rabbani will propose Dushanbe as a
possible venue for Afghan peace negotiations. BP

KYRGYZSTAN, UZBEKISTAN DISCUSS ENERGY
SUPPLIES

Kyrgyz First Prime Minister Kamelbek Nanayev
arrived in Tashkent on 5 January to hold talks with his
Uzbek counterpart, Ismail Jurabekov, on energy and water
supplies, RFE/RL correspondents reported. The two signed
an agreement on Uzbekistan's natural gas deliveries to
Kyrgyzstan in 1998; those supplies almost meet the
Kyrgyz yearly requirement. No information has so far been
released about Uzbek payments for water from Kyrgyz
reservoirs. Uzbekistan is opposed to such payments, while
Kyrgyzstan claims they are necessary to maintain its
reservoir systems. BP

UKRAINE'S KUCHMA ORDERS GOVERNMENT TO CUT
SPENDING

President Leonid Kuchma has told the cabinet
that it must cut spending rather than seek new revenues in
order to lower the budget deficit in 1998 and thus reduce
the need for foreign borrowing, Interfax reported on 5
January, quoting Kuchma's adviser Anatoliy Galchinskiy. In
the past, Kyiv has stressed improving tax collection,
rather than cutting expenditures, as the best way to
reduce the budget deficit. PG

UKRAINE INSISTS BRITAIN YIELD EMBASSY BUILDING

The Ukrainian government is insisting that the United
Kingdom give up an embassy building in Kyiv because of
concerns that embassy officials may overhear
conversations of President Kuchma, who lives next door,
the newspaper "Vseukrayinskiye vedomosti" reported on 5
January. Questions of compensation have not yet been
resolved, the newspaper said. PG

BELARUSIAN COURT AGAIN POSTPONES ORT
JOURNALISTS' TRIAL

A Belarusian court on 5 January
again postponed the trial of Russian Public Television
journalist Pavel Sheremet and his cameraman Dmitriy
Zavadskiy, RFE/RL's Belarusian service reported. The
reason for this further delay is that Zavadskiy's lawyer is
ill, The trial is now scheduled to begin on 8 January. The
two men are charged with illegally crossing the Belarusian-
Lithuanian border. Their case has strained relations
between Minsk and Moscow. PG

ESTONIA'S COALITION PARTY TO GO IT ALONE IN NEXT
ELECTIONS?

Prime Minister and Coalition Party Chairman
Mart Siimann has said that his party and one of its coalition
partners, the Country's People's Party, are prepared to run
separately in the next elections, BNS reported on 5
January. At the same time, Siimann did not rule out an
electoral alliance between the Coalition Party and its
present partners, since, he stressed, cooperation between
those groups has "passed the test of time." In a December
poll, the Country People's Party won the most support (12
percent), while the Coalition Party gained 7 percent
backing. JC

LITHUANIA'S PAULAUSKAS WANTS BALLOT RECOUNT

Arturas Paulauskas, who was defeated in the run-off of the
presidential elections, has said he wants a recount of
ballots in a number of constituencies. Paulauskas lost by
less than one percentage point (or some 11,000 votes) to
the Lithuanian-American Valdas Adamkus (see "RFE/RL
Newsline," 4 January 1998). Paulauskas told a news
conference in Vilnius on 5 January that because the
outcome was so close, ballots must be carefully recounted.
He also noted that violations of the election law were
reported in Kaunas and some western districts, according
to BNS. JC

POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY CAUSES CZECH CROWN TO
FALL

The Czech crown dropped from 19.37 to 19.51
against the German mark on 5 January , following former
Premier Vaclav Klaus' statement that his party will not
support Josef Tosovsky's cabinet unless four rebel
members of his Civic Democratic Party (ODS) quit their
government posts (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 5 January 1998).
Quoting local currency dealers, Reuters reported that the
crown is likely to remain volatile at least until the
parliament confirms the new cabinet. In related news,
minister without portfolio and government spokesman
Vladimir Mlynar has said the cabinet wants to face a
parliamentary vote of confidence only after legislators
meet to elect the country's president on 20 January. MS

CZECH 'REBEL' MINISTERS REFUSE TO EXPLAIN
PARTICIPATION IN GOVERNMENT

The ODS Executive
Council on 5 December demanded that Finance Minister Ivan
Pilip, Labor and Social Affairs Minister Stanislav Volak, and
Defense Minister Michal Lobkowicz leave a council meeting
at which their participation in the government was to be
discussed, Reuters reported. The council had demanded
that the three ministers explain their acceptance of
portfolios in Tosovsky's cabinet, but the ministers refused
to do and walked out. Regional Development Minister Jan
Cerny was allowed to attend the council meeting in his
capacity as chairman of the ODS parliamentary faction.
Asked whether he would quit the ODS, Pilip said he is still
considering his options. MS

HUNGARIAN SMALLHOLDERS CALL FOR OPPOSITION
UNITY

In a 5 January statement signed by party chairman
Jozsef Torgyan, the Independent Smallholders called for
setting up a "united front of nationalist parties" in the
second round of the spring 1998 elections, Hungarian media
reported. The party proposes that opposition candidates
who fare worst in the first round step down in favor of
those who do better. It also urges that "nationally minded
forces" unite to remove the "liberal-bolshevik"
government from power. Democratic Forum spokesman
Karoly Herenyi welcomed the initiative, saying the
cohesion of opposition forces in the second round is a
"rational idea." Young Democrat national board chairman
Attila Varhegyi said his party also wants the removal of
the current coalition. MSZ

PLAVSIC STANDS BY PRIME MINISTER

Republika Srpska
President Biljana Plavsic expressed her full confidence in
Mladen Ivanic, her prime minister-designate, following
their meeting in Banja Luka on 5 January. Plavsic said she
believes that Ivanic will succeed in forming a government
of national unity, despite the hard-liners' recent rejection
of his proposal that a cabinet be formed consisting of both
politicians and experts, an RFE/RL correspondent reported
from Banja Luka (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 5 January 1998).
PM

BOSNIAN CROAT LEADER CALLS SERBS "NATURAL
ALLIES."

Kresimir Zubak, the Croatian member of the
Bosnian joint presidency, told the Zagreb weekly "Globus"
that the Bosnian Croats' problem is that they are joined in a
federation with the Muslims, who seek to dominate the
alliance, "Oslobodjenje" reported on 5 January. Zubak said
that the Muslims are preventing tens of thousands of
Croats from returning to their homes in central Bosnia. He
added that it is often easier for him to negotiate with his
Serbian counterpart, Momcilo Krajisnik, than with the
Muslims' Alija Izetbegovic. Zubak accused the Muslims of
trying to make Sarajevo, which the Dayton agreement
regards as multiethnic, into a purely Muslim area. He added
that the Serbs and Croats have a common interest in
blocking "Muslim attempts" at dominating Bosnia's joint
institutions, such as the diplomatic corps. PM

The Muslim leader believes that it is no longer possible to
recreate a multi-ethnic Yugoslavia on the model of Josip
Broz Tito's former state, "Dnevni avaz" reported on 5
January. Izetbegovic called for strengthening Bosnia's joint
institutions as the best means of opposing Serbian and
Croatian nationalist plans to partition Bosnia. He added that
a strong Bosnia is ultimately in the interest of Croatia,
since both countries face a common rival in Serbia.
Izetbegovic said he would also welcome good relations
between Bosnia and Montenegro. He noted that there will
be a role for foreign peacekeepers in Bosnia well beyond
the year 2000. PM

SPANISH KING PRAISES PEACEKEEPERS

King Juan
Carlos spent his 60th birthday on 5 January among the
1,300 Spanish troops in Mostar and Medjugorje in
Herzegovina. He was joined by two top Spanish diplomats--
NATO Secretary-General Javier Solana and Carlos
Westendorp, the international community's chief
representative in Bosnia. The king praised the
peacekeepers' work and said they should stay "until there
is a triumph of understanding and tolerance between
communities, based on a durable peace in the former
Yugoslavia." Some 18 Spanish soldiers have died since
Madrid first sent troops to the former Yugoslavia in 1992.
PM

MULTIETHNIC POLICE IN ACTION

Robert Farrand, the
international community's chief representative for the
disputed northeast Bosnian town of Brcko, said in Sarajevo
on 5 January that the multi-ethnic Brcko police force is
working well and without serious incident. The 230-strong
force consisting of Serbs, Croats, and Muslims took up its
duties on 3 January. Japan and the UN donated $250,000
worth of equipment to the police force. PM

CROATIAN SOCIAL DEMOCRATS SLAM VAT

Spokesmen
for the Social Democrats, Croatia's largest opposition
party, said in Zagreb on 5 January that the new value-
added tax hits the poorest Croats the hardest. Party
leaders added that the tax could lead to a dramatic rise in
unemployment and to a profound worsening of social
conditions, an RFE/RL correspondent reported from
Zagreb. The 22 percent VAT went into effect on 1 January
and is currently the most discussed domestic political
issue. PM

ANNAN WANTS FRESH MANDATE IN CROATIA

UN
Secretary-General Kofi Annan said in New York on 5
January that the UN observers' mission on Croatia's
Prevlaka peninsula should be extended for another six
months. Annan said the extension is necessary because
Yugoslavia and Croatia are still far from an agreement on
the future of the strategic peninsula, which controls access
to Yugoslavia's only major naval base. PM

CROATIAN DEFENSE MINISTER UNDERGOES SURGERY

A
team of medical consultants announced in Zagreb on 6
January that Gojko Susak underwent an unspecified
successful emergency operation two days earlier after
experiencing sudden pains in the region of his appendix.
The powerful hard-line leader has a history of health
problems and underwent lung cancer surgery in the U.S. in
1995. PM

RUSSIAN LOAN FOR YUGOSLAVIA

The Russian
government approved a $150 million state loan to
Yugoslavia on 27 December, Interfax reported on 5 January.
The loan runs until the year 2000 and will be used to pay for
Russian supplies of gas and other products in the energy,
mining, and metallurgy sectors. PM

KOSOVO STUDENTS URGE PEACEFUL SOLUTION

Kosovar student leaders on 5 January called for a peaceful
and democratic solution to the current tensions in Serbia's
mainly ethnic Albanian province. The students thanked
Serbian Orthodox Patriarch Pavle for his recent criticism
of police violence but urged him to make a complete and
public break with the Serbian government and its
repressive methods (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 5 January
1998). Kosovar Social Democratic leaders, for their part,
appealed in an open letter to all Serbs to condemn
Belgrade's policies in the province, "Nasa Borba" reported.
PM

EXPLOSIONS IN MACEDONIA

Police spokesmen said in
Skopje on 5 January that one bomb went off the previous
day near a police garage in Kumanovo and another in a
police car in Prilep. No injuries were reported. Police
appealed to citizens for information relating to the blasts.
PM

KURDS STOPPED AT ALBANIAN BORDER

Interior
Ministry spokesmen said in Tirana on 6 January that border
police detained 18 Kurds the previous day at a frontier
crossing with Greece near Saranda. Police said the young
males were headed for the ports of Durres and Vlora, from
where they planned to proceed to Italy with the help of
Albanian criminal organizations. The Albanian authorities
detained nine Kurds the previous week. Albania reached
agreements with Italy and with Greece in 1997 aimed at
controlling illegal migrants. PM

CONTINUED CONTROVERSY IN ROMANIA OVER ROYAL
SUCCESSION

In a 5 January statement, the opposition
Party of Social Democracy in Romania (PDSR) said
President Emil Constantinescu's position on the republican
form of government was "weak and unsatisfactory." The
PDSR also accused the government of pursuing a "two-
faced" policy on the monarchy, RFE/RL's Bucharest bureau
reported. Party chairman Ion Iliescu said the government
should "unambiguously condition" the presence of the
former royal family in Romania on a "firm and clear"
declaration that it renounces any claims to a royal status
or to the former crown properties. Corneliu Vadim Tudor,
the leader of the extremist Greater Romania Party (PRM),
demanded, among other things, the "immediate expulsion
of Mihai von Hohenzollern and his family" from Romania and
President Constantinescu's suspension from office. MS

EXTREMIST ROMANIAN LEADER WILL NOT LOSE
IMMUNITY

Iliescu on 5 January said his party will oppose
the prosecutor-general's initiative to lift the
parliamentary immunity of PRM leader Tudor for having
insulted President Constantinescu (see "RFE/RL Newsline,"
5 January 1998). Without the support of the PDSR, the
initiative will fail to achieve the required two-thirds
majority to pass. In 1996, an similar initiative was started
against Tudor for having insulted then President Ion
Iliescu. After losing the elections at the end of that year,
and intent on promoting collaboration with Tudor's PRM,
the PDSR refused to support an initiative of the coalition
members to continue the procedural steps undertaken by
previous legislature toward stripping Tudor of his
immunity. MS

ROMANIAN EDUCATION LAW AGAIN ON AGEN DA

Ion
Diaconescu, the chairman of the National Peasant Party
Christian Democratic (PNTCD), said on 5 January that the
coalition will respect agreements with the Hungarian
Democratic Federation of Romania (UDMR) when the
government regulation amending the 1995 education law
comes up for debate in the Chamber of Deputies.
Diaconescu said the PNTCD will nonetheless continue to
insist on the obligatory teaching in all schools of history
and geography in Romanian. Meanwhile, UDMR executive
chairman Csaba Takacs told Mediafax on 5 January that if
the chamber adopts the version approved by the Senate,
the UDMR will "no longer discuss quitting the coalition but
will implement that step." MS

MOLDOVAN PRESIDENT DISMISSES CHIEF OF STAFF

Petru Lucinschi has dismissed army chief of staff Vladimir
Dontul, AFP reported on 5 January, citing Interfax. The
decision was taken on 2 January, following a meeting
between the president and the Defense Ministry Council,
which last month had demanded that Lucinschi sack Dontul.
The military leader is alleged to have been involved in the
illegal sale of army property, including 850 kilometers of
communication cable worth $ 300,000, and in illicit dealings
with apartments built for military staff. An investigation is
under way, and it is reported that other high-ranking
officers may have been involved in the dealings. MS

BULGARIAN POLICE SEIZE HEROIN

Police in Sofia have
seized 30 kilograms of heroin worth some $ 3 million, the
Ministry of Interior announced on 5 January. A Bulgarian and
a Turkish citizen have been arrested in connection with the
seizure, Reuters reported. MS

BOSNIA LOOKS TOWARD DAYTON'S THIRD YEAR

by Patrick Moore

Two years after the Dayton peace agreement went into
force, Bosnia-Herzegovina faces problems related to the
role of the international community in implementing the
treaty, domestic political factors, and economic
development.

If there is anything on which most observers of the
Bosnian scene are agreed, it is that the military provisions
of the Dayton agreement have generally been well
implemented. The international peacekeepers--currently
known as SFOR--have taken a no-nonsense approach
toward any serious violations and have been quick to seize
unlawful arms caches or to punish any party that stages
illegal maneuvers. An immediate return to fighting would
therefore seem out of the question, at least as long as the
peacekeepers are present.

It is less clear, however, how Dayton's civilian
provisions have been implemented. But Most observers
would say that there have been at least three serious
shortcomings in implementing the civilian provisions and
that time for enforcing them is running out.

The first is the creation of joint Bosnian institutions,
which are clearly outlined in the peace agreement. The
Serbs have been particularly obstinate in boycotting
sessions of the joint presidency or blocking an agreement
on a common citizenship. This is because any consolidation
of a unified Bosnia works against the Serbian hard-line goal
of dividing that country and joining the Republika Srpska to
Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic's state.

In response to the Serbs' stone-walling, leaders of the
international community agreed in Bonn in early December
that Carlos Westendorp, the international community's
main representative, should have the power to set and
enforce deadlines to ensure compliance with the civilian
provisions. A key question in 1998 will be whether he uses
his powers and whether the major powers and SFOR support
him.

A second issue is freedom of movement and the right
of refugees to return to their homes. To date, Bosnia
remains divided by internal frontiers, and few if any
refugees have gone home to an area controlled by another
ethnic group. In September 1997, the international
community sponsored local elections, in which refugees
were allowed to cast ballots for governments in their home
areas. The coming months will show whether the major
powers are prepared to enforce the results of the vote so
that, for example, Muslim refugees can return to
Srebrenica and take part in the affairs of the local council.

A third problem is posed by war criminals. Dayton
allows for the peacekeepers to arrest individuals indicted
by the Hague tribunal if the soldiers come face-to-face
with them. In July, British special forces arrived in Bosnia
to arrest two Serbs, while in December Dutch commandos
seized two Croats. But reports persist of SFOR personnel
deliberately looking the other way when well-known war
criminals drive past NATO checkpoints or even drink in the
same bars as the peacekeepers. SFOR officials argue that it
is not their job to hunt war criminals. SFOR's critics,
however, maintain that there will be no peace in Bosnia
until persons indicted by The Hague are brought to justice,
and stress that it is intolerable that major figures like
Radovan Karadzic and General Ratko Mladic remain free.

In December, the Hague's Chief Prosecutor Louise
Arbour openly accused France of blocking the court's work.
In any event, it remains to be seen whether the British and
Dutch actions will prove to be isolated ones.

But if the foreigners bear responsibility for many of
the post-Dayton problems, so do the former Yugoslavs. But
while the hard-line Serbs in Pale have been the main
obstructionists, since late June they have been openly
opposed by Republika Srpska President Biljana Plavsic and
her alternative power center in Banja Luka. Plavsic is as
nationalistic as her rivals, but she argues that the Dayton
agreement has much to offer the Serbs and is willing to
work within its framework. It is unclear, however, which
Serb faction will ultimately win out and whether Plavsic
will actually work to implement Dayton--for example, by
encouraging Muslims and Croats to return to Banja Luka.

The Muslims and Croats have had there share of
problems, too. As RFE/RL's South Slavic service recently
pointed out, the Muslims and Croats were the darlings of
the international community at the time Dayton was signed
but are now under a cloud. In the case of the Croats, this is
because they and their patrons in Zagreb are widely seen
as dragging their feet on implementing Dayton, particularly
on reuniting Mostar.

In the case of the Muslims, public revelations by
Westendorp in October suggested that the Muslims (and
their Croatian allies) have been guilty of corruption on a
vast scale. Both the Muslims and Croats have allegedly
diverted customs revenues and aid money to maintain
structures--such as intelligence services--that were
supposed to have been abolished under Dayton. Muslim
leader Alija Izetbegovic has promised an investigation.

The Muslim authorities themselves, furthermore, were
forced to admit that foreign Islamic fighters remain a
security problem; in December, they launched a dragnet
against those fighters. While Izetbegovic's supporters in
the West applauded the action, the incident served to raise
fresh questions about the role of Islamic hard-liners in
Bosnian Muslim politics.

A final issue facing Bosnia is economic development.
In the Muslim, Serbian, and Croatian areas alike, there are
tens of thousands of demobilized young men whose only
trade has been killing. The economic question is most acute
in the Republika Srpska, where some estimates put the per
capita monthly income at as low as $35. Plavsic has argued
that peace and stability require prosperity and has
appealed for investments.