[Note I have posted a new European Adventure Round-Up after my trips to Greece, Sweden and Denmark – see here] Well, I’m finally back. 20 days, 5 countries, 12 cities. It was pretty hectic, but also one of the best vacations of all time! I’ve also finally brought the Travel Diary up to date, and read more

The unfortunate thing about American cable television is that certain shows, certain utterly brilliant shows, can get lost in the mix in foreign countries, relegated to expensive local cable channels (only 6.8% of Aussies have cable), late night slots nobody knows about, or obscure digital stations with little to no advertising and about two seasons read more

Congratulations to me! This is the 800th post on this blog. I thought long and hard about what to write about for this monumental occasion, but I had my usual brain freeze…so instead I decided to write about the fact that I am writing a post about my 800th post. Today is the 30th of read more

Finally, my long-awaited Taiwanese food adventures have recommenced! Armed with a new Sony NEX-5N camera (apologies as I still don’t really know how to optimise it yet), our first megameal took place at the famed Zhejiang cuisine restaurant, Rong Rong Yuan. This place serves proper dishes so sublime that Taiwan’s First Lady is a regular read more

You are browsing the Blog for Oscar predictions.

Well, the nominations for the 2011 Academy Awards are finally out, and as usual, there were few surprises. Overall, I think 2011 was a pretty solid year for cinema, with some standout films, unique films, classic films and groundbreaking films. Of course, there were some duds too, but apart from the massive overkill of pointless 3D films, I’d say it was a good year for cinemagoers.

As per the last couple of years, it’s time for me to predict the winners! Here goes.

The 81st Academy Awards ceremony finally took place last night. Here are just some of my thoughts on it.

The Ceremony

It was…surprisingly not that much different to previous years despite all the talk of a toned-down version due to the global financial meltdown (though Hugh Jackman did make a joke about it). A few subtle differences in the presentation and sets, but most of it still involved ascertaining who was with who and who was wearing who and what; a musical medley and some jokes to kick things off; predictable winners and long, emotional acceptance speeches. Hollywood pats its back for another year well done.

That being said, I still enjoyed it. It’s not often that you get to see all the biggest stars in one place, and see them not as their characters but for who they really are. Sometimes, through their reactions (to winning and losing) and their acceptance speeches, you get to see a side of them you don’t normally see. I think this year’s was one of the best we’ve had in a while.

The Host

A big reason was the host. Hugh Jackman did an excellent job. It sounded like a strange choice at the beginning, but he really showed off his multiple talents, from singing and dancing to joking and hosting. He seemed reasonably relaxed given the occasion and gave it his all. However, if you’re used to seeing him as Wolverine, he might look a little awkward doing all these things you’re not used to seeing. His job was to host and he did that by not being too dominant and leaving most of the attention to the nominees and winners. He was classy, and that’s important to the Oscars.

The opening number was awesome. I’m not sure if anyone can ever top the Billy Crystal classics, but Jackman’s might be the closest we’ll ever get.

[NB: Not sure how long this will last before they take it down]

The Highlights

As usual, they had some clips in between. Most were pretty standard, but they did have clips on genres, such as romance and comedy. I thought the highlight of the night, apart from Jackman’s number (above), was the comedy clip presented by Pineapple Express, with Seth Rogen and James Franco. Man, Seth Rogen has lost a lot of weight, probably in preparation for his Green Hornet role. And James Franco was just sensational. I really thought he should have been nominated for Best Supporting Actor rather instead of Robert Downey Jr for Tropic Thunder. Check it out soon.

[NB: Poor quality and might get taken down soon, but it’s the best I can get]

Apart from that, there was a little song and dance number with Hugh and Beyonce and the leads of High School Musical and Mamma Mia! Personally it didn’t do much for me but there wasn’t really anything wrong with it.

The Winners and Losers

Despite reading everywhere that there were going to be some ‘surprises’ this year at the Oscars, when it came to predicting the winners, there weren’t many surprises at all, especially in the major categories. As expected, Slumdog Millionaire absolutely dominated, winning 8 of its 10 nominations including Best Picture and Best Director for Danny Boyle. Also expected was the disappointment for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, which, despite leading with 13 nominations, came away with just 3 wins.

Below is the total list of winners and how they compared with my predictions (and some thoughts).

Best Picture

Winner:Slumdog Millionaire

My Pick: Slumdog Millionaire

Thoughts: A foregone conclusion by the time the last award of the night rolled around. I don’t think there was one person in the audience that expected anyone else. This just about completes a sweep of all the major awards for Slumdog Millionaire this year. Was it deserving? Probably yes. Were there better films? Absolutely.

Best Director

Winner: Danny Boyle (Slumdog Millionaire)

My Pick: Danny Boyle (Slumdog Millionaire)

Thoughts: Another one that was well in the bag even before the ceremony began. Boyle’s acceptance speech was okay, nothing special.

Best Actor

Winner: Sean Penn (Milk)

My Pick: Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler)

Thoughts: I thought based on merit, Penn and Rourke were neck and neck. But I felt Rourke would take it out because Penn won not that long ago for Mystic River, and he’s the type of actor that will continue to be nominated as long as he’s acting. Rourke on the other hand, was one of those heart-warming, comeback stories. His character’s journey was very similar to that of his own. I thought that may have struck a chord with the voters, but apparently not. I think Penn won because: (1) he was truly brilliant and deserving; (2) the Academy likes portrayals of real people (especially in the last few years: Ray, Capote, The Last King of Scotland); and (3) Mickey Rourke must have really pissed off a lot of people. Penn’s acceptance speech was gracious and genuine. Some have criticised him for the slightly controversial comments about equal rights for homosexuals (eg marriage), but he probably would have been criticised too had he not said it.

Best Actress

Winner: Kate Winslet (The Reader)

My Pick: Kate Winslet (The Reader)

Thoughts: It was Kate’s time, and I was so glad to see her win after so many disappointments. Some may say she was probably better in Revolutionary Road, but I don’t think she cares. Congratulations!

Best Supporting Actor

Winner: Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight)

My Pick: Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight)

Thoughts: Since everyone expected this, it didn’t turn out to be the emotional affair one may have pictured a few months ago around the time the nominations were announced. The acceptance speech given by Heath’s father and sister was relatively subdued. Still, a great achievement, and his performance as The Joker will go down in history as one of the greatest.

Best Suporting Actress

Winner: Penelope Cruz (Vicki Cristina Barcelona)

My Pick: Penelope Cruz (Vicki Cristina Barcelona)

Thoughts: This category is usually seen as the most wide open, but as usual, the favourite prevailed. While I thought she was good in the role, I didn’t feel it was worthy of the win, especially againt the other nominees in the group. Personally I would have preferred Amy Adams or Taraji P Henson.

Best Original Screenplay

Winner:Milk

My Pick:In Bruges

Thoughts:Milk was the favourite but I expected an upset here with In Bruges, which had some early momentum that was quickly lost. Should have known better than to best against the favourites.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Winner: Slumdog Millionaire

My Pick: Slumdog Millionaire

Thoughts: When one film has the momentum at the Oscars, they tend to sweep all the awards, irrespective of whether it was truly deserving. In this case I think you could make a strong case for the winner, but I felt it was pretty borderline. Any of the other nominees would have been worthy winners.

Cinematography

Winner: Slumdog Millionaire

My Pick: Slumdog Millionaire

Thoughts: Another one that goes with being the most popular film at the Oscars.

Editing

Winner:Slumdog Millionaire

My Pick: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Thoughts: I should have gone with the favourite, but I thought maybe the voters had a kittle sympathy for Button because it was sure to be pummeled by Slumdog in all the categories where both films were nominated. I was wrong.

Art Direction

Winner:The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

My Pick: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Thoughts: As I said, if Slumdog wasn’t nominated, and Button was, then Button would win. I was right this time.

Costume Design

Winner:The Duchess

My Pick:The Duchess

Thoughts: The heavy favourite. The film wasn’t known for much else.

Makeup

Winner: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

My Pick: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Thoughts: Well deserved win here. The makeup was truly amazing. Also because Slumdog wasn’t nominated, or else it might have been in trouble.

Thoughts: Would have been good to see another winner here, but Slumdog was like a tornado this year, sweeping everything in its path. I wonder whether the voters really paid attention to the particular category or whether they just went with the flow and voted everything Slumdog.

Original Song

Winner: Slumdog Millionaire

My Pick: Slumdog Millionaire

Thoughts: With 2 songs compared to WALL-E‘s one, this isn’t a surprise. It’s the nominations that puzzled me. I didn’t even know Slumdog had 2 songs, and I’m sure there are loads and loads of songs out there that could and should have been nominated. I personally thought the theme song in Gran Torino (by Clint Eastwood) was awesome and at least deserved a nomination if not a win.

Sound

Winner: Slumdog Millionaire

My Pick: Slumdog Millionaire

Thoughts: Typical.

Sound Editing

Winner: The Dark Knight

My Pick: The Dark Knight

Thoughts: Very gald they got this one right because it was deserving. And good to see one that Slumdog didn’t bag.

Animated Feature Film

Winner: WALL-E

My Pick: WALL-E

Thoughts: Possibly the most obvious choice of them all except for all of Slumdog’s wins. Many thought WALL-E was a masterpiece and should have been in the Best Picture category. I disagree, but it was certainly better than Kung Fu Panda.

Other winners

Best Foreign Language Film:Okuribito (Japan)

Best Feature Documentary: Man On Wire

Best Short Documentary: Smile Pinki

Best Short Animated Film:La Maison en petits cubes

Best Short Live Action Film:Spielzeugland

Thoughts: I did a prediction for these when the nominations were first announced, but they were just guesses because I hadn’t (and still haven’t) seen any of them, so I don’t think it’s entirely fair to make predictions on that basis. Nevertheless, I managed to get Man On Wire (because I had heard of it) and Spielzeugland (because it sounded cool) correct.

FINAL THOUGHTS

My official predictions (which didn’t include documentaries, short films, foreign film, etc) did pretty well. I came away with 16 correct guesses out of 19 categories. If you include the other categories which I pretty much randomly guessed at the start, I got 18 out of 24. The frightening thing is that it would not have been that hard to guess ALL of them, and I’m sure plenty of people did. Just shows how predictable everything still is.

Maybe a change in the voting system wouldn’t be such a bad idea? It gets a bit boring when we all know who will win and it’s all driven by publicity and promotion rather than purely on merit. But then again Meryl Streep might win every year and that would make it even more boring.

The ceremony for the 81st Academy Awards is finally about to take place. I’ve finally managed to see most of the nominated films for the major catgories that are available to me (see reviews here, here and here). While I initially predicted the winners and losers when the nominations first came out (here and here), the landscape has changed a little and I feel that now, since I’ve seen most of the films, I can also comment on who deserves to win.

So for tomorrow night, here’s who should win and who will (only categories with films I’ve seen). If there is an asterick (*) next to a nominee it means I have not seen that film (so my views do not include it).

Who should win: All great movies. Based on my ratings and reviews of the films, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button and The Reader scored the highest marks, but I would give the nod to Button. I just thought it was such an unusual and memorable film. Though not quite as good, it had a certain Forrest Gump-feel to it (probably because of the same writer).

Who will win:Slumdog Millionaire has been tipped all along and there won’t be anything standing in its way come Oscar night. There is a teeny little chance for an improbable upset by Button (which had the most nominations) but I can’t see any of the scandals derailing what should be a glorious night for Slumdog. Especially now that all the child actors are coming to the ceremony (albeit after the voting).

Who should win: A very difficult one to pick because I feel they all did terrific jobs in their respective films. If I had to pick one I’d have to go with Danny Boyle – Slumdog Millionaire was just that little bit more extraordinary than the others, and the way he pieced it all together was absolutely masterful.

Who should win: A coin-toss between Sean Penn and Mickey Rourke. I saw The Wrestler first and thought Rourke was a lock based on his emotional, nuanced performance, not to mention his amazing physical resemblance to a real-life wrestler. You felt his physical pain in the ring, you felt his emotional pain outside of it. It was the performance of a lifetime. But then I saw Milk and Sean Penn’s performance just blew me away. Yes, he was playing a real-life character, but man did he do it well. You honestly believed he was the inspirational Harvey Milk. Too hard for me to choose.

Who will win: Mickey Rourke. He’s the sentimental favourite and Penn has already got one (for Mystic River). The only way Rourke can lose is if he really pissed off as many people in the industry as he claims (and judging from his BAFTA acceptance speech I can kind of see how it might be possible).

Who should win: Really tough choice. I think as far as the performance is concerned, Kate Winslet, Meryl Streep and Anne Hathaway are all very deserving (Jolie was very good but not quite there). But based on the difficulty of the roles they had to play I would give Kate Winslet the edge. Her character was so important to what The Reader was trying to tell and she played each phase of Hanna Schmitz’s life wonderfully.

Who will win: Kate Winslet. It’s her time. Streep is consistently this good so she won’t stand out as much, whereas Hathaway is young and she’ll have plenty of chances (plus her role is less sensational).

Who should win: Heath Ledger. As terrific as Hoffman was in Doubt and Shannon was in Revolutionary Road, Ledger’s performance in The Dark Knight will forever be remembered as one of the great ones. I still remember when he was first cast as the Joker and plenty of people scoffed at the idea that he could pull it off (even after Brokeback Mountain). No one is denying that he was the right man for the role now.

Who will win: Heath Ledger. All the major awards leading up to the Oscars indicate he will win. I honestly believe he deserves it, even if he were still alive today – the performance was that mesmerizing. The fact that he’s not around anymore just about locks it in.

Who should win: The ones that stood out for me were Amy Adams and Taraji P Henson. Marisa Tomei was wonderful in The Wrestler but I liked the other two more. Viola Davis was barely in Doubt, though she made great use of her limited screen time. Penelope Cruz was good but I didn’t think the performance was Oscar-worthy – or maybe I just didn’t like the character.

Who will win: Penelope Cruz. In this case, I think the least deserving will win. She’s the most well-known of the group and her role was different and explosive. Plus all the focus has been on her leading up to the Oscars. I hope she doesn’t win but I think she will.

Best Original Screenplay

Nominees: Frozen River*, Happy-Go-Lucky*, In Bruges, Milk, WALL-E

Who should win: Having only seen 3 of the 5 nominees, I don’t feel sufficiently equipped to judge this one. Out of the 3 films I did see, they were all very good, but probably In Bruges stood out as just being somewhat special.

Who will win:In Bruges has taken a lot of the lead-up awards, but WALL-E is also a favourite because it manages to do so much with so little dialogue. I’m going with In Bruges but won’t be surprised in WALL-E took it out. Note I originally picked Milk, but that was before I saw most of the films.

Who should win: “Adapted” screenplay is thrown around a little loosely because some of the scripts I’m sure barely resemble the original source. Nevertheless, I thought the adaptation of The Reader was sensational, dealing with the majority of the themes and events perfectly in Bernhard Schlink’s novel.

Who will win: Originally picked Doubt but after seeing the film I felt the adaptation could have been better. I have a feeling this award will be lumped with the bunch of awards that Slumdog Millionaire will win on the night.

Who should win: Another tough one. I’m don’t have any technical specialty so this is based purely on what I thought looked best. And using that criterion, I thought Changeling was particularly memorable, though Slumdog Millionaire’s eye-opening portrayal of Mumbai was also impressive.

Who should win: Another technical one, but I liked the work in Button, where editing was particularly important.

Who will win: This might be one of those sympathy awards given to Button, which, despite all its nominations, continues to be beaten by Slumdog. I hope so because I think in this case it deserves the award.