The trend estimate for short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during August 2005 (457,600 movements) increased by 0.3% compared with July 2005. This followed a monthly decrease of 0.1% for June 2005 and a monthly increase of 0.1% for July 2005.

Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 0.8% lower than when the series last peaked in February 2005 (461,400 movements) and 4.7% higher than in August 2004.

During August 2005, short-term resident departures (401,600 movements) increased by 0.4% when compared with July 2005. This followed monthly increases of 0.9% for June 2005 and 0.7% for July 2005.

Currently, short-term resident departures are 39.9% higher than when the series last troughed in March 2003 (287,000 movements) and 10.2% higher than in August 2004.

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES

The seasonally adjusted estimate for short-term visitor arrivals during August 2005 (466,700 movements) increased by 1.9% compared with July 2005. This followed monthly increases of 2.3% for June 2005 and 1.1% for July 2005.

Short-term resident departures for August 2005 (399,800 movements) increased by 1.0% compared with July 2005 and followed a monthly increase of 4.4% for June 2005 and a monthly decrease of 3.8% for July 2005.

ORIGINAL ESTIMATES

In original movement terms, there were 432,200 short-term visitor arrivals to Australia and 387,600 short-term resident departures from Australia during August 2005.

NOTES

EARLY ESTIMATES

Early estimates of short-term visitor arrivals for September 2005 will be available on the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) web site on 20 October 2005. These estimates can be accessed by going to the AusStats web page <http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats> and selecting Publications & Data and then Main Features. Select 34 Migration and then select Short-term Visitor Arrival Estimates, Australia (cat. no. 3401.0.55.001).

DATA NOTES

This publication contains movement data. Care should be taken when interpreting this movement data as 'people'. See paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.

Calculations of percentage and numeric change are based on unrounded data. See paragraph 12 of the Explanatory Notes for more detail.

CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

As advised in the previous issue of this publication, the seasonally adjusted and trend series were updated following the normal annual review of the seasonal adjustment process. While no further changes in relation to this review are included in this issue, the associated AusStats time series spreadsheets have been updated. For details of the additional series please see the CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE section of the August 2005 AusStats time series spreadsheets.

INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Anne Ward on Canberra (02) 6252 6871.

MAIN FEATURES

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia in August 2005 (457,600 movements) have increased by 4.7% when compared with August 2004. Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 0.8% lower than when the series last peaked in February 2005 (461,400 movements). Prior to that month, short-term visitor arrivals had increased each month from February 2004 (425,000 movements).

The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during August 2005. Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are also presented for these countries, along with the trend percentage change compared with July 2005 and August 2004.

Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Major Source Countries - August 2005

Trend

Seasonally Adjusted

Original

Jul 05 to Aug 05

Aug 04 to Aug 05

'000

'000

'000

Trend % change

Trend % change

New Zealand

91.1

91.4

101.2

-0.8

4.2

Japan

52.3

54.9

63.1

0.7

-12.6

United Kingdom

58.8

60.7

40.6

0.3

4.0

United States of America

38.6

39.2

34.2

0.6

5.8

China

21.9

22.7

20.7

2.0

3.9

Korea

21.0

20.7

18.1

-1.3

15.8

Singapore

23.4

23.0

16.4

0.5

14.6

Malaysia

14.7

15.5

13.5

1.4

-2.5

Hong Kong

14.3

14.2

13.3

1.5

26.8

Germany

13.0

13.2

11.6

2.1

11.4

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms, short-term resident departures from Australia in August 2005 (401,600 movements) have increased by 10.2% when compared with August 2004 and are 39.9% higher than when the series last troughed in March 2003 (287,000 movements).

The following table presents the top ten destinations (based on original estimates), for short-term resident departures during August 2005. Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are also presented for these countries, along with the trend percentage change compared with July 2005 and August 2004.

Short-term Resident Departures, Major Destinations - August 2005

Trend

Seasonally Adjusted

Original

Jul 05 to Aug 05

Aug 04 to Aug 05

'000

'000

'000

Trend % change

Trend % change

New Zealand

68.6

68.1

62.3

-0.2

-1.2

United Kingdom

35.3

33.9

40.6

0.4

14.0

United States of America

36.0

36.9

33.8

1.1

13.9

Indonesia

28.1

27.4

31.8

-2.4

7.9

China

20.9

21.4

18.3

1.6

30.9

Thailand

16.1

16.6

17.0

1.0

6.1

Fiji

16.2

16.0

16.3

-0.2

10.5

Singapore

14.9

14.6

13.8

0.1

12.5

Hong Kong

17.6

17.2

13.3

2.3

41.3

Malaysia

11.6

11.1

10.9

-5.2

0.1

SHORT-TERM TRAVEL - GERMANY

Short-term visitor arrivals

Trend estimates for August 2005 show the number of short-term visitor arrivals from Germany represented 3% (13,000 movements) of all short-term visitor arrivals to Australia. Over the past ten years the trend has fluctuated, with the series rising from a low of 9,600 in January 1996 to a high of 13,000 in May 2001, this high being similar to current movements. The August 2005 trend estimate for arrivals from Germany was 2% higher than for July 2005 and 11% higher than for August 2004.

GERMANY, Short-term Visitor Arrivals

In original terms, visitors arriving short-term from Germany stated holiday (67%) as the main reason for journey, followed by visiting friends and relatives (11%) and business (8%). These three reasons were also the main reasons for visiting Australia for all short-term visitors; holiday (55%), visiting friends and relatives (17%) and business (12%). The median age of visitors from Germany was 32 years (39 years for all visitors) while the median intended duration of stay was 25 days (10 days for all visitors).

New South Wales (45%), Queensland (21%) and Victoria (16%) were the main states/territories of intended stay for short-term visitors from Germany. For all short-term visitors these states were also the main destinations; New South Wales (38%), Queensland (34%) and Victoria (16%).

Short-term resident departures

Trend estimates show the number of residents departing Australia, short-term, for Germany represented 1% (4,800 movements) of all short-term resident departures in August 2005. While the series has shown fluctuations over the past ten years it has mainly trended upwards. The low point in the ten year series was in October 1995 (2,600) with current movements being the highest over the period (4,800). The August 2005 trend estimate for departures to Germany was 1% higher than for July 2005, and 20% higher than for August 2004.

GERMANY, Short-term Resident Departures

In original terms, 32% of Australian residents travelling to Germany stated holiday as their main reason for journey, followed by visiting friends and relatives (25%) and convention/conference (17%). For all residents departing Australia the main reasons for journey were holiday (48%), visiting friends and relatives (23%) and business (15%). The median age of residents departing to Germany and all residents departing Australia short-term was the same (42 years) while the median intended duration of stay was 29 days for residents departing to Germany, compared with 15 days for all residents departing short-term.

PERMANENT AND LONG-TERM MOVEMENTS

There were 11,500 permanent (settler) arrivals into Australia during August 2005, an increase of 8.1% when compared with August 2004 (10,650 movements). People born in the United Kingdom accounted for the largest proportion of settlers (18%), followed by people born in New Zealand (11%) and China (9%).

Statistics on overseas arrivals and departures relate to the number of movements of travellers rather than the number of travellers. Therefore, care should be taken when using long-term movements data as it is known that some individuals who travel multiple times in a year are counted each time they cross Australia's borders (see paragraph 5 of the Explanatory Notes). Long-term movements in this publication are not an appropriate source of migration statistics. For further information refer toAustralian Demographic Statistics (cat. no. 3101.0).

There were 5,690 Australian residents departing permanently from Australia during August 2005, a decrease of 0.4% when compared with August 2004 (5,720 movements).

STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section of this issue for more detail.

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

INTRODUCTION

Seasonally adjusted and trend estimates add to the understanding of Overseas Arrivals and Departures (OAD) statistics. Seasonally adjusted estimates allow users to analyse short-term movements including irregular impacts on the series, while trend estimates provide a better method to analyse and monitor the underlying direction of the short-term movement series. In most cases, the trend series is the best source of information on the long-term direction of these statistics.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS

Selected source countries

The graphs presented below illustrate the long-term increase in the trend series for arrivals from the United Kingdom and New Zealand and the significant impact of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) on arrivals from Japan earlier in 2003.

United KingdomNew ZealandJapan

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

Selected destinations

For residents departing to the United States of America the graph illustrates the effect that the terrorist attacks in that country on 11 September 2001 had on short-term departures of Australian residents to the United States of America. The graph for New Zealand illustrates that departures of Australian residents, which had been trending upwards since May 2003, have stalled. For Indonesia the graph shows a return to expected resident departures levels after the influence of the Indian Ocean tsunami of 26 December 2004.