Well, based on his 3-6, 6-3, 6-2 win today over Novak Djokovic in the Dubai semis, everything is right with Roger Federer!

I think I said it during the Australian Open at the time when he beat JW Tsonga I had declared that was the best he’s played in a while. Well, this display today blew out any his Melbourne performances.

“I think I was able to play a bit more aggressively as the match went on,” said Federer. “I knew I was in a bit of trouble (after the first set) and not looking good at all, because he has a tendency to really run with it and play more freely on your serve. He plays very dangerous.

“It was just a matter of trying to play consistent but remain aggressive. Sometimes being also overly aggressive to see if it works. If it doesn’t, then you can always pull back a little bit. Clearly it was close, but I think I got the right balance, just the right balance. Then I started to serve very well, something I haven’t been able to do really this week yet. I knew to have a chance today I needed to serve well. So I’m just very happy I was able to deliver that.”

After a slow start (down 0-3), Federer kicked into high gear, and I mean really high gear, and just locked into Federer circa 2006, flying around the court attacking at the right times and even controlling (yes controlling!) the baseline rallies thanks to a surprisingly sturdy backhand.

He served well, his net play was sublime and he was forcing the issue with the forehand, but the backhand was the difference I thought. It just didn’t break down. Where’d those patented Federer shanks go?

Let me be clear, that was a very, very strong win today for Federer over a 4-time tournament champion in Djokovic who was out for blood looking for that first title.

So how did someone who couldn’t beat Federico Delbonis or Tommy Robredo last summer, do this to Djokovic? That after wins in Melbourne over Tsonga and Murray?

Is the just the quicker court In Dubai? That helped and he was playing in his second home of Dubai (timely rain delay!).

Is it Stefan Edberg? It could be. There’s no question he’s added to Federer’s aggressiveness. The stats prove as much.

Is it the hunger? For sure. No one wants to prove the doubters more wrong than Federer. How many times have we/I shoveled dirt on him only to have him turn things around.

Is it the racquet? It seems to be helping, especially the groundstrokes.

Is it the opponents? He still got crushed by Rafa and you could make the case Murray’s not 100% yet and Djokovic is again struggling, but last year remember he had just a handful of Top 10 wins, now already 3.

It is the back? It’s no longer hurting allowing Roger to really take flight. Maybe this really was the issue last summer.

Whatever the reasons are, at 32 Federer seems to be back to good. Maybe not great – we’ll see about Berdych tomorrow and then IW and Miami – but at least good again and that can be a stepping stone to back to great. And that’s extra important now given he has a new baby on the way, and that new baby is going to want to see daddy win a Slam. Well, I think that’s a real possibility again.

Fed played really well. Not quite his vintage best but well enough and more importantly he was solid for most of the match without any real prolonged periods of him playing poorly.

He seem’s to have a spring in his step- be it due to extra motivation to prove people wrong, Edberg or him fancying this challenge.

It also helped that Novak was not at his best today. I think that’s a fair comment to say.

All that said:

I think Fed always enjoys facing Novak since it’s a good matchup for him and when it does not get physical (which was not issue when Fed was in his 20′s not 30′s!) then really his chances look more than good for the win v Novak virtually everywhere.

I understand the urge to hype this but let’s wait until IW & Miami – not least tomorrow. And I wouldn’t read too much into the Murray defeat. It was his 6th competitive match after 4 months away. He’s far from 100% as recent matches testify.

On another note Berdy is showing his swagger (from Roger’s Dubai presser)

Q:Tomas said he was glad that he’s playing you in the final because he thinks he can beat you.

“Weak era!”
Lol,
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Epic, simply epic match and very entertaining tennis. Now this is the way to play, no grind-o-matic play here! Yawn!

Contrary some mentioning to not get carried away, there is reason and hope for a better year for the Maestro. This match had to have given him should some much needed confidence boost which was sorely missing last year.

@skeezer and @BenPronin, keep posting. I have been away, busy trying to finally set up and finally start writing on my ’2-years-empty’ website tiahpost.com. I bet @Giles thought I had been fired from this site. No worries, I will shortly fire myself.

Anyway, the FEDEXPRESS is simply happy as always and thank God his happiness is not dependent on some ****** on this site. Who is even debating Roger vs. Rafa these days? What’s new? That’s totally old news. I thought everybody knew that Rafa is not a good match for Federer? Even Fed himself said playing Murray and playing Rafa is like day and night. Case closed!! The FEDEXPRESS LIVES ON, ON HIS OWN TERMS!!! Not gonna retire anytime soon – old man or not!!

Isn’t it interesting though, how when any of the top ones lose, they are not in top form (or injured) but when Fed loses, he is too old? If nobody has noticed yet, Federer has not been in top form for a very long time.

roy, no need to extrapulate. Your never ahead of yourself when it talking about Fed.
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TV
Agreed. The win is huge for his confidence imo. And Wawa has to be considered as a big threat now with a Slam pocketed

Djokovic doubted himself after 2011. He opined that it was such a triumphant year that he doubted if he could do it again. He predicted his own doom. He does not have Roger’s and Nadal’s mentality that no matter how good a year they’ve had, they still feel that they could do better.

Are we seeing a resurgence of Roger ? He has said multiple times that his best is yet to come and may be he is delivering on that remark. Roger came to his groove in the second and third sets and he was looking there at his sublime best. Roger’s weakness is that backhand and once that starts ticking he becomes invincible. It happened and Roger savoured the win.

Thanks Metan !! A well earned win indeed !! But it would be a bit premature to mark this as the resurgence of Roger. However, this is certain to boost his confidence levels. Still, he has to beat an in-form Berdych to win this title. I am keeping my fingers crossed for as of late, Roger is struggling against Berdy like he has against others ?

Great win for Roger i was hoping for this at the start of the week,and im so glad it paid off,and i agree with everyone saying that Roger has looked very confident this week,now lets see if he can finish the job against Berdych who has also looked very good this week,and i agree with what Ben said on another thread,in that maybe with Stans win at the AO something has sparked inside him,thinking maybe hmm if Stan can join the big boys then why cant i?and Berdych has given Roger problems a few times too,anyway hope its a cracking final.

James i agree i think Berdy is probably happier that its Roger and not Novak that hes facing in the final,he matches up well against Roger not so against Novak,the way Tomas played at Wimbledon in 2010 against Roger and then Novak was the best ive ever seen him play.

I think Berdych’s best shot is his Inside out FH, which lands in tough spot for Roger. It’s not the case with Novak. It lands in his BH, which is his primary shot and also against Nadal towards his FH.

it’s amazing how Federer has so many tricks up his sleeve for different opponents..Federer realised Berdych was outplaying him from the baseline..he changed his tactics midway and started serve and volleying almost 3 times in 4 points to deny berdych any rhythm from the baseline..

That short slice drawing the opponent forward is gem of a weapon..short slice bringing the opponent to the net..if the approach is great,hit the first pass right at the body to get a weaker reply and then a clean pass!
It’s spectacular how he has employed that tactic time and again with success.

amazing how the depth of your shot makes the big difference. Roger seems to be hitting the shot with more depth, taking away time from Berd. If Roger can continue to do this, we could get away with this match.

hahah giles, no problem with that. what would tennis be without rafa and roger. i do not want to jinx roger now but after my usual pessimistic lines i must admit that i really believe that fed is back winning tight matches with sheer brilliance …

^^^jatin .. yeah was thinking the same thing . berdy is tough to beat for roger but that making wins over him so special

The match itself was a hit and miss type of tennis. Roger understood he cannot stay with Berd on the baseline and he started flattening out his shots and improved on the depth which made a huge difference.

Winning Dubai gives Federer a net gain of 320 points and will move him up to 4625, still in 8th place, while Murray, by reaching the semis in Acapulco, gains 180 points (did not play in 2013) and leapfrogs him over Berdych (4890 – no gain or loss as he lost in The finals of Dubai last year) and Del Potro (drops to 4780 as he fails to defend 180 SF Dubai points from last year) and tomorrow will have 4975 points.

Meanwhile, by only reaching the QFs, last year’s runner up – Ferrer – loses 210 points and drops to 5160 points (remaining in 4th) while Wawrinka, who did not play this week and has no points to defend, is still in the #3 spot with 5560 points.

So here are the number 3 through 8 as of tomorrow (in brackets are the standings as if today):

Where it can change dramatically is Federer is looking to defend only 225 points from the 3 Masters 1000 tourneys in March/April (IW/Miami/Madrid), easily the fewest points of any of these guys. If he keeps his form up he could find himself in the top 4 before the clay season begins.

Lol thought Fed was gonna snatch defeat from the jaws of victory there for a mo – love 40 on his serve!
He is effing amazing though!
@Ben
Thought your comment re Berd having new steel after Stan’s win, was very interesting because he has been playing well. However, I am wondering if he can ever emulate Stan. For a start Stan has much more variety in his game and is also much speedier round the court.
Berd hits very cleanly and is immensely powerful from the back of the court, but I’ve always found his game limited and Fed certainly exposed that today.

It was hit and miss because both Federer and Berdych are aggressive players playing on a fast surface. They don’t develop long rallies like Djokovic or Nadal. A lot of short points where both guys are looking for the first chance to hit a winner. The ball flies a lot, especially since Berdych hits it so hard.

In the end Federer’s serve improved and his baseline variety and changes of pace paid off. He struck several clever second serves in that third set on key points, with tricky spin and positioning to fox Berdych on the return. And he did rush to net quite a bit to unsettle Berdych.

This is two come-from-behind victories in a row where he started slow and then looked down and out but gritted his way through and figured out a way to get the W. Great way to get his season going!

Well done to Fed. His confidence is just what he needed to work on coming into this season.

Tennis wise, it’s probably the best he’s looked since winning Wimbledon in 2012, and I think with all the changes he has made in his team (addition Edberg, addition new baby (!) – does anyone remember when Fed played Berdy in 2009 Australia Open?

Berdy was up two sets to love and Fed said in an interview somewhere that he had found out that Mirka was going to have twins. When that thought came into his head, he said he just fought and fought for the win over Berdy. Wonder whether he got that same tenacious feeling again at a critical point in this match?

With the finals appearance in Dubai, and now a win, these are Federer’s results in his last six tournaments: F, SF, F, S, S, F.

In the six tournaments prior to that: R16, R16, QF, R16, S, R64.

So, as federer fans, we can definitely see progress. Cannot be argued. Now this is where the consistency will kick in for the rest of the hard court season.

This has to give Fed the confidence that has been lacking in his game for the time prior to September 2013.

“Berdy was up two sets to love and Fed said in an interview somewhere that he had found out that Mirka was going to have twins.”

Mad max,
You are one funny little creature.
How can he find that out during the middle of the match ?
Does it mean he secretly communicates with his team during his famous bathroom breaks.
Or he communicates through hand gestures or something else while playing ?

I remember when Fed said, POST INTERVIEW, after beating Tomas that he had a thought about the moment he was told that Mirka was having twins. (He had that thought WHILST he was playing the match). He said AT THAT MOMENT he was playing tennis, something just clicked for him. Made him stronger and more tenacious to win. That she was having twins and it made him into ‘Mr. Stud’ I guess?!

I obviously didn’t make my self clear and for that, I apologise to you. (seriously). I get too excited sometimes when I see Fed play, I lose my senses Slice T.

Hope this explains the confusion. Let me know if I can elaborate on anything else you find with what I say.

“I get too excited sometimes when I see Fed play, I lose my senses Slice T.”
Ok mad max you are pardoned. You are not alone here. There is another old lady in a dark room who goes gaga without any sense.

Gordo,
Thanks for your analysis regarding the rankings.
Murray and Ferrer (if he is healthy to play) will surely find it very difficult to defend their points at IW and Miami. So my prediction is Federer will be number 4 at the end of Miami (if he plays there). As you mentioned latest by Madrid Federer will be at 4.

These two swiss players (ranked 3 and 4) can cause headaches to Nole if they get to the semis.