The salaries match-up. Miami giving about $35.6 to the Magic’s $35 million.

On paper, I think the Magic win the deal. One thing the new GM may be able to use to his advantage is desperation from title contenders who didn’t win this year.

The Miami Heat are one loss away from potentially qualifying as such a team willing to make a bold change to get it right. Orlando would get a nice 1-2 punch, perfectly capable of winning a title together, and a rookie point guard who has shown promise.

Miami certainly would prefer not give up Cole, or for that matter even Bosh to get Dwight Howard. I am sure they’d love to deal a package of Bosh, Chalmers, and Anthony for Howard and being willing to take Turkoglu or some 2-man combo of Davis/Richardson/Duhon back. It seems doubtful that would make Orlando happy.

Not including both Wade and Bosh would seem to be a deal breaker. And forget about LeBron James. I know you were thinking it. The Heat landed the biggest free agent prize perhaps in NBA history two summers ago. They aren’t trading him anywhere.

The problem for Miami just trying to trade one star is either star on his own would view coming here to Orlando as a 2-year (that’s how long before they could opt out) death sentence. The Magic wouldn’t want that. Miami could negotiate to keep Cole and perhaps have the Magic take back Chalmers and one of Battier or Miller. I am sure the Magic would then insist on Miami taking back Turkoglu in a deal.

A trade of Wade, Bosh, Chalmers, and Battier for Howard, Turkoglu, Davis, and Duhon works too. The Heat could then try to convince a veteran PG like Steve Nash or Andre Miller or Jason Kidd to come in on the cheap to help Cole along. The Magic could force Duhon or Richardson on Miami. J-Rich has more game, but a longer, more expensive contract.

The Magic would still make out pretty well with a 1-2 punch, Battier and Chalmers could conceivably start at SF and PG. Orlando could choose to resign Ryan Anderson and start Bosh at center, or simply play Anderson off the bench. Or let (or can’t afford him) him walk as a free agent. Either way, Orlando would still lack a true starting center. That could be rectified with a veteran stiff and/or through the draft. They could also resign Daniel Orton. The Magic could also insist (?) on Joel Anthony instead of Battier so they could have a starting center in the deal.

I am not convinced the Heat will make a deal this offseason if they don’t win a title. I also don’t think they’ll be afraid to explore what is available, and we know Dwight Howard is available. It’s just a matter of how badly the Heat want to change their roster. And if it’s badly, the Magic could put an end to the Dwight Howard drama, and actually feel good about it.