Hotzenplotz's ATP bets Blog

Bets for Tuesday, February 21

Rotterdam:
Andreev (1.44) to beat Bracciali: Andreev is simply the more complete player. While Bracciali has already won a couple matches in the qualifiers, his recent results indicate that he's not in the form to beat Andreev, as long as the latter plays half as good as he can.
Srichaphan (1.15, 2 points) to beat Parmar: Parmar simply doesn't have what it takes to beat anyone who regularly plays at ATP main tour level.
Djokovic (1.65) to beat Seppi: While the two newcomers are of the same class altogether, Djokovic likes fast surfaces much better than Seppi does.

Memphis:
Tursunov (2.18, 0.5 points) to beat Ginepri: Ginepri's form has been dire and he has to improve a lot to beat a player like Tursunov. While this is not impossible, the value is clearly with Tursunov.
Roddick (1.12, 3 points) to beat Fish: No comment, a look at Fish's latest results is sufficient.
Soderling (1.75, 0.5 points) to beat Mirnyi: Soderling has more match practice and has won their last two matches, showing he can deal with Mirnyi's serve.

Costa do Sauipe:
Massu (1.27) to beat Daniel: Poor old Marcos Daniel, he has to play his third match in a row against Massu. Massu is just too classy, Daniel won't be third time lucky.
Ferrero (1.28) to beat Saretta: Another rematch from last week. Last week's match was tight and Saretta will enjoy home advantage this time. However, with some more match practice than last week, Ferrero should have little problems in dispatching Saretta.
Serra (1.57) to beat Dlouhy: Both can play on clay, but Serra still plays on another level. Dlouhy has to make the transition from indoor hardcourt to clay which adds to Serra's advantage who has already played on clay last week.
Volandri (1.15, 5 points) to beat Kim: There could hardly be a bigger mismatch on a clay court.

I'm also considering backing Starace, del Potro, Gaudio, Patience and Almagro, but I'll have to wait until odds are available.