Astros should start printing playoff tickets

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In late June, Phil Garner cracked that the Astros were ready to take off because they had just been discounted in the Chronicle. He was referring to a column from my bud Richard Justice. I quickly responded that the Astros weren’t officially declared dead until I said so. After all, I was the one who took all the abuse after the June 1, 2005, tombstone cover on the sports front. As it turned out, I was right. In Garner’s jokingly twisted logic that the Astros would take off after they were buried, I told them they weren’t ready to take off because they weren’t really buried yet. I was right, and the Astros stumbled until regaining some life last week.

Ironically, the Astros took off right after I told Garner last Tuesday that I predicted to Lance Berkman that the Astros would reach the playoffs this season. He laughed and jokingly praised another media member who had said the Astros couldn’t reach the playoffs this year.

The National League is so lousy this year, it’s impossible to bury any wild-card contender right now. On July 29, I spoke with Berkman, broke down the schedule and explained why I thought the Astros would sneak in with the wild card for the third year in a row.

Look at the guys ahead of the Astros in the wild-card race. Four of them are in the National League West, and they’ll start beating up on each other down the stretch. (Remember that’s exactly what the NL East wild-card contenders did last year)

The other two – Cincinnati and Philadelphia – appear primed for the taking. The Phillies were sellers at the trading deadline, and I’m assuming the Astros will take at least four of six against Philadelphia when they play them next month. Did you know the Astros haven’t lost against the Phillies since 2003? Yeah, that’s 12 games in a row and two season series.

The Cincinnati Reds have looked stronger than the Astros, but the Astros have six games against the Reds to make up the 3 1/2 game lead the Reds carried over the Astros in the wild-card race this morning.

Moreover, the Reds’ schedule is pretty tough before Houston visits Cincinnati on Aug. 21. Barring a terrible slide, I would expect the Astros to be ahead of the Reds on Aug. 21. The key for the Astros is to fatten up on a weak schedule in August.

Other than the three games against the Padres this upcoming weekend and the three against the Reds, the Astros will play the rest of this month against teams under .500. On the Astros’ September schedule, only three teams currently have records over .500 – the mighty New York Mets (three games in Houston to start the month), Reds (three games in Houston) and Cardinals (seven games, three in St. Louis and four in Houston) .

By the way, did you know that just last month a guy at the Los Angeles Daily News buried the Los Angeles Dodgers? In L.A., you’re not dead until T.J. Simers dances on your grave. With a terrific blend of sarcasm, Simers took on the guy who buried the Dodgers. If you don’t know Simers’ work, you have to understand that he is the one guy in L.A. who is usually accused of being negative on the local teams. This is a brilliant column.

But before you get to link, let me predict that the Astros could do some serious damage against the weak NL in the postseason. Because the Baltimore Orioles got too greedy, the Astros still have Roy Oswalt to anchor the rotation with Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte. If the bullpen is somehow fixed, the Astros’ rotation could carry them over the Mets, Cardinals and whoever comes out of the NL West. The problem will be getting there.

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16 Responses

I have never lost faith in our Astros. Sure they like to keep us on the edge of our seats but we have to admit we like it just alittle. Our bullpen is secure, our starting pitching is awesome, and the bats have come alive like we knew they would. I believe that we have a shot a the central title and let the others fight over the wild card. Bring on the SERIES!!!

88-74 does that get you in ,maybe ! lost in colorado rockies but a born and bred astro fan from the beginning a beaumont native i’ve seen games at colt stadium the dome and minute maid 40 years plus and counting for the magical world series win ! i know this is a pipe dream . the lineup in zona worked the one last night did not did you feel it phil

I think the Astros have to do more than win a couple of series. with a 9 game homestand, anything less than 7-2 will be a major problem with winning the wild card. There is simply not enough time in the rest of this season to start winning series 2-1, 2-1 and 2-1, to be 6-3, well the team would still be below 500 for the season and another two weeks have come and gone and there is less time to start winning.

There is nothing wrong with starting a 7 to 12 game winning streak right now. That will silence a lot of critics. Of course it they had done that in May or June, it would have put them in a different place right now. But the future is now and it is time to put of a winnng streak.

Why hasn’t Hirsch been brought up yet? This makes no sense. The guy has dominated Triple A for the last month. I will be severely disapointed if he does not start on Saturday. There is no reason he should left in the Minors to rot. Purpura always says that he is all about the farm system…well, it’s time he proved it.

Well, they can definitely do it. It all depends on their bullpen. If Lidge blows one more game, it’s time to send him down to the minors for a few weeks (and call him up JUST BEFORE the rosters expand, so he can still pitch in the postseason). Keep playing Luke Scott and Taveres. Willy’s speed makes the rest of the lineup better. Put Ensberg and Lamb in a platoon at third. Start giving Munson more time behind plate. He’s a better hitter than Ausmus, who (grand slam aside) is THE worst hitter in the lineup.

I hope you are right but certainly would not bet hard earned money on it. Too many teams chasing 1 wild card spot. The good news about the West playing each other is that 1 team must lose. The bad news is that 1 team must win. At least one or two of the teams chasing the wild card, other than the Astros are going to get hot and play well over .500 baseball the rest of the way. The Astros must start winning every game that Oswalt, Clemens & Petitte pitch. They need to pull out some of the games that Backe and whoever the 5th starter will be. They will need a 5th starter as they play the next 20 days in a row. I hope you are right but I feel they will fall short this year. Simple mathematics!

Let’s not put the cart before the horse. Although the ‘Stros hade an impressive 4-2 road swing, they’ve got to put together many consistent ballgames. Hypothetically, this homestand against the Bucs, Padres and Cubs should at least put them in a tie for the wild card spot…but they’ve got to execute. I think the ‘Stros forget that they’re the defending NL champs so every team is gunning for them. Now is the time to play like champs and take us fans to the promised land!