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Turbulence in Europe

So, there's been lots of crap going on in many places in the world, lots in the middle east, far east and Africa, but I dont' know anyone there.
How are you, my European friends, handling this violence? The terrorism?
The influx of immigrants in Germany, Greece, the Scandinavian countries (and more)? The Brexit?
I know there are people here from most affected euro countries, how is it affecting your lives? I only know what the media tells us here.

I know in Canada, we don't have such issues, we have our fop leading our county into more dept, and we're wondering who will win between the evil snake and the buffoon in the US elections.

Gods help us...

The less said about Brexit the better.

As for terrorism, it's not close to as much of a problem in the UK as in France/Germany/Belgium. Largely because our security services actually work, and actually have the co-operation of the Muslim community. We do have wahabi whackjobs, but they're not active to the same extent; and when they are, they're watched.

What I'm worried about is ISIS/sympathisers pulling off a show-stopper. A major attack on a pan-national target like a head of state, or something akin to 9/11. I guarantee you that things will turn nasty here if that happens. Although truth be told, the longer attacks happen in Europe, the more likely it will be that a backlash occurs against the Muslim community in Europe. If I was a European Muslim, I wouldn't just be worried, I'd be scared.

Part of the problem is that frankly, a lot of Europe doesn't want mass immigration, especially not from Muslim countries. Countries in Eastern Europe have a long (ie. centuries) history of being on the receiving end of Ottoman expansionism in the past and the hatred from Muslims is pretty entrenched. What also causes problems in Northern Europe is the sudden mass demographic change in countries with small populations like Holland, Denmark and Sweden. That's also a growing source of friction.

I can see Angela Merkel's unilateral decision to "open the gates" as some have put it, backfiring increasingly badly as time goes by. If nothing else it will open the door for Europe's Far Right to come out and play. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see Front National willing elections in France in the near future.

thanks for the insight Sel.
I agree with you, I see some far right parties gaining momentum.
Watching the videos of the recent attacks in France makes me realize that guns or not, if someone wants to terrorize, they can.

Part of the problem is that there is a real political dividing line in Europe: immigration.

Like it or not, having 1,000,000+ refugees and economic migrants showing up in an already overcrowded continent was always going to cause conflict. No matter how well-meaning people are, or how welcoming they are, that amount of immigration will cause conflict. The problem is that no-one in Europe knows how to manage this. Anyone who suggests welcoming more into Europe is labelled as a dangerous threat to European way of life and security. But at the same time, those who want to secure Europe's borders and limit the flow of migration are accused of being "far-right" and worse.

One massive issue is that a lot of the freedom of movement is being driven by political leaders in direct conflict with the views of their citizens. If you held a mass public vote on whether or not to accept hundreds of thousands of refugees/migrants into Europe, the result would be a massive, resounding no. But that's not what's happening. What's happening is politicians like Angela Merkel unilaterally opening the doors, despite the massive opposition from countries like Hungary and the Czech Republic who have to deal with the massive migrant numbers who will pass through them en route to Northern Europe. At the same time, people in Northern Europe are suddenly seeing massive demographic shifts that many areas simply can't cope with.

What lies further down the road is more concerning. Because there are two ways it can go, and neither ends well. Scenario one is the current political leadership in Germany and France losing power in the shape of FN in France and possibly a loss of power of the CDU in Germany, especially if Alternative f?r Deutschland gains heavily (which it might do in Eastern Germany). In that scenario you can expect a very sharp u-turn in the political landscape in Europe, which will quickly impact immigration policy, with France and Germany aligning closer with the hard anti-immigration policies of the Eastern EU countries. This might well turn ugly in Southern Europe as all those migrants suddenly stuck in limbo as the drawbridge gets pulled up in France and Germany. Southern Europe is already creaking at the seams dealing with the immigration numbers as they are, and will then be stuck with trying to expel migrants. All the while dealing with poor economies and debt.

Scenario two is the current political leadership in Germany and France staying in power and the status quo continues. This means higher levels of continued migration, with an effective rise in all the related pressures that entails. The serious risk here is that the ideological "gap" between the political leaders and the people will widen, causing increased friction. This *could* then reach a tipping point where the governments end up on the opposite side from the people. This is where the far-right thrives, and will make larger headway, and will allow the rhetoric to become far more aggressive. I don't need to say any more about the combination of an "unwanted" minority and aggressive right-wing rhetoric in Europe...

no, we can imagine how that ends...
We're hearing some rumbling here as well. We admitted nowhere near as many as France or Germany, but the 30k refugee we let in didn't sit well with everyone.
I only hope that the powers that be in Europe wake up and look for a solution that doesn't wind up stoking the far right fires.
I'm not holding my breath. There's a lot of anti-islam sentiment out there and a good deal of it is on solid footing.

Part of the real worry is that some of that sentiment is based on reality. Not every migrant has come peacefully. In Europe the migrants have bought a raise in crime in some areas. This is aside from the terror attacks, as well as incidents like Cologne in New Year.

The vast majority of migrants have been peaceful and haven't caused trouble. But even then there's a problem. Europe -especially Southern Europe- has an unemployment problem. People see the influx of migrants as cheap labour that will undercut European workers and take European jobs.