Release Detail

September 21, 2004 - Terrorism Fear Lifts Bush To Dead Heat In New Jersey,
Quinnipiac University Poll Finds;
Voters Say Iraq War Is Wrong And Economy Is Bad

President George W. Bush and Democratic challenger John Kerry are locked in a 48 - 48
percent tie among New Jersey likely voters, including undecided voters leaning toward a
candidate, with 2 percent for independent candidate Ralph Nader, according to a
Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Among registered voters, Sen. Kerry is ahead 47 - 43 percent. This compares to a
49 - 39 percent Kerry lead among registered voters, with 4 percent for Nader, in an
August 25 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

While 81 percent of Bush backers say they are voting more for the President, 61
percent of Kerry backers say they are voting more against Bush.

By a 55 - 40 percent margin, New Jersey voters say it was wrong for the United
States to go to war in Iraq, also virtually unchanged from previous polls.

"It's not so much Bush vs. Kerry as Bush vs. Bush. Kerry voters aren't
enthusiastic about their candidate. They just want to make Bush the ex-President," said
Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Nader's vote is miniscule, but when we winnow down the list to likely voters, it's
clear that Nader's two percent could be the key in New Jersey," Carroll added.

Looking at presidential qualities, voters say 54 - 37 percent that Bush acts more
like a leader than Kerry, and 60 - 30 percent that Bush is doing a better job explaining
what he will do as President.

Given four choices, 30 percent of New Jersey voters list terrorism as the most
important issue in the presidential race, followed by 25 percent who list the economy, 24
percent who list the situation in Iraq and 16 percent who list health care. This is the first
time terrorism has been the top concern in any Quinnipiac University poll.

Asked which candidate would do a better job on these issues New Jersey voters
say:

55 - 38 percent that Bush would do a better job on terrorism;

50 - 44 percent that Kerry would do a better job on the economy;

49 - 44 percent that Bush would do a better job on Iraq;

55 - 36 percent that Kerry would do a better job on health care.

Only 2 percent of New Jersey voters say the U.S. economy is 'excellent,' while 38
percent say it is 'good;' 39 percent say it is 'not so good,' and 20 percent say it is 'poor.'

"The vacant skyline where the World Trade Center once stood brings the threat
of terrorism home to New Jersey across the river," Carroll said.

"Voters trust Bush to do a better job on terrorism - and they see terrorism as a
more important issue than the economy or health care, Kerry's issues. "And those
Republican attacks on Kerry for speaking with senatorial fuzziness seem to be scoring."

From September 16 - 19, Quinnipiac University surveyed 943 New Jersey
registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points. The survey
includes 672 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts
public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Florida
and nationally as a public service and for research.
For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks or call (203) 582-5201.

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling
his job as President?

10. (If Nader q7) What if Ralph Nader were not running?
If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates
were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom
would you vote?
This table includes 'Leaners'.

Recalculated Bush vs Kerry matchup without Nader among likely voters.

Likely plus
Leaners

Kerry 49%
Bush 48
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) -
DK/NA 2

8. (If candidate choice q7) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might
change your mind before the election? Registered voters.

Kerry Bush
Tot Vtr q7 Vtr q7

Made up 86% 85% 91%
Might change 13 15 8
DK/NA 1 - 1

9a. (If "Kerry" q7) Is your vote more for Kerry or more against Bush?

Kerry
Vtr q7

For Kerry 33%
Against Bush 61
DK/NA 7

9b. (If "Bush" q7) Is your vote more for Bush or more against Kerry?

Bush
Vtr q7

For Bush 81%
Against Kerry 17
DK/NA 1

11. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in the nation
today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very
dissatisfied?