Tuesday, November 22, 2016

Plowable Pile of Slush by Tomorrow - Quiet Thanksgiving Day - Numbing Start to December

35 F. high yesterday in St. Cloud.35 F. average high on November 21.27 F. high on November 21, 2015.

November 22, 1996:
Heavy snowfall accumulates over the same areas that were hit two days
earlier. Four to seven inches of snowfall are reported across the area.
Heavier snowfall occurred during the daylight hours of the 23rd.
Snowfall totals of six inches were reported in the Twin Cities,
Chanhassen, Stewart, St. James and Redwood Falls.November 22, 1970: Gale-driven snow falls across Minnesota. 45 mph winds are reported over Rochester and Duluth.

Weather Goes From Minnesota Nice to Minnesota Ice

Over
the years I've learned a few things the hard way. The timing of a storm
is obviously critical. So is the surface temperature. We tend to get
hung up on snow amounts ("Hey Paul, where's that 4 inches you promised
me!") when air temperature often determines how bad rush hour will be.

Colder
storms tend to be more dangerous. Snow falling at 15F compresses into
ice, and chemicals take time to melt this dangerous, slippery crust. In
fact an inch at 17F can be far more hazardous to drive on than 6 inches
of slush at 33F.

A layer of mild air aloft may result in a mixed
bag of snow, sleet (ice pellets), even freezing rain - the most
dangerous form of wintry precipitation. MnDOT-treated freeways may stay
wet and slushy during the daylight hours today, but I expect roads to
become icier everywhere tonight with a changeover back to snow. 2-4 inches falls by Wednesday in the metro with more over central Minnesota.

Light snow brushes southern Minnesota Thursday night; ECMWF guidance hints at a few more inches of slush Sunday night as rain changes back to snow.

Dig out the parkas - December looks good and cold.

Winter Weather Advisory.
No watches or warnings, but the local Twin Cities office of the
National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for much
of the state, including the immediate MSP metro. Details:

Rainy, Icy Mix Changes to Snow - Potential For 2-4" By Wednesday Morning.
Models are converging on a solution for total snowfall at KMSP,
probably in the 2-4" range (on lawns) - less on freeways and city
streets. I suspect rush hour Wednesday will be more problematic than
getting home later today.

Future Radar.
4km NAM data shows a mix of rain, sleet and snow pushing across the
state; mostly snow north of St. Cloud. A changeover to mostly snow
occurs tonight and Wednesday morning before tapering off. A few inches
of slush may pile up on lawns, while (treated) roads remain mostly-wet.
Loop: AerisWeather.

WRF Snowfall Totals.
The same 4km weather model from NOAA still prints out some 6"+
amuns,especially east metro to Lake Mille Lacs. A rainy mix during the
daylight hours tomorrow should help to keep totals down - still leaning
more toward 2-4" of heavy, wet, slushy snow on lawns by Wednesday
morning. Source: WeatherBell.

84-Hour Snowfall Potential.
There is the 12km NAM model predicted snowfall product into Friday;
more lake effect for upstate New York, a plowable snow from central
Minnesota into Wisconsin, and snow for the highest peaks from Colorado
into the Pacific Northwest. Source: AerisWeather.

Above Average By Next Weekend.
Yes, it's been a few degrees colder than average, but ECMWF guidance
warms us into the low 40s by Saturday and Sunday. And suddenly our
definition of a "warm front" takes a radical turn. Source: WeatherBell.

Cold Start to December - Moderating by Mid Month.
Much of the southern USA will get a taste of Canadian air by the first
week of December with potential snow from north Texas into the Midwest
and Ohio Valley. But there's some evidence that milder, Pacific air may
return for much of the USA by the second week of December.Wednesday Travel Weather.
Models print out showers from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley to the
Gulf Coast. No major problems getting hom on Wednesday. Map: Aeris AMP.Thursday Travel Weather.
Heavy rain pushes into the Pacific Northwest, otherwise relatively dry,
quiet weather prevails on Thanksgiving Day with pleasant temperatures
over the southern half of the USA.Instant Winter. Reports of serious, lake effect snows for upstate New York and much of New England:

A Raw Thanksgiving Parade.
Conditions are ripe for rain showers in New York City Thursday - not a
steady, heavy rain, but it will definitely look and feel like late
November.

Tropical Storm Otto Forms In Southwest Caribbean.
Packing 65 mph sustained winds, Otto is forecast to track westward,
passing over Costa Rica and Nicaragua into the Pacific. Details via CIMSS Satellite Blog at the University of Wisconsin: "...Infrared
(10.7 µm) imagery from GOES-13, above, from 1315 through 1715 UTC on 21
November, shows periodic deep convection over the Depression; the grey
regions in the deepest convection over the system correspond to
brightness temperatures colder than -75 C. The environment surrounding
this system, shown below, is marginally favorable for strengthening;
sea-surface temperatures are warm, although the oceanic heat content
suggests the warmth does not extend through a deep column of water. Wind
shear over the storm is modest (but far stronger north of the storm)..."

An Unlikely Track. Check out the predicted track for Tropical Storm Otto, courtesy of NOAA NHC.
By the way, if Otto regains strength in the Pacific it may undergo a
name change (different list of names in the eastern Pacific than the
Caribbean). As if we weren't all confused enough...

Rain Triggers 570% Surge in Los Angeles Country Freeway Crashes.
Did we mention it's only rain? I know - I know. Oil accumulating on
freeways mixing with rain or even drizzle can create ice-like conditions
on the highways, but good grief people. Here's an excerpt from The Los Angeles Times: "...Over
Sunday and Monday, the storm dumped more than two inches of rain in San
Luis Obispo County and more than an inch at Brentwood’s Getty Center in
Los Angeles County, where a surge in car crashes left freeways
intermittently jammed, authorities said. According to statistics from
the California Highway Patrol,
between 9 p.m. Sunday and 1 a.m. Monday there were 201 reported crashes
on L.A. County’s freeways — a 570% increase from the same period last
week when the CHP counted 30 crashes..."

The Big Melt: Sea Ice Hits Record Lows at North and South Poles. Here's a snippet from The Christian Science Monitor: "Sea
ice levels in both the Arctic and the Antarctic have hit record lows,
NASA climate scientists report. The northern record, while bleak, isn’t
all that surprising – Arctic sea ice has been on a consistent decline
for years. But until recently, Antarctic sea ice was actually expanding.
Climate change skeptics have often pointed to ice gain in the Southern
Hemisphere, which hit record highs between 2012 and 2014, but now that
trend appears to be reversing. “[It] certainly puts the kibosh on
everyone saying that Antarctica's ice is just going up and up,” Walt Meier, a research scientist with the Cryospheric Sciences Laboratory at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, told CNN..."

Something Really Crazy Is Happening In The Arctic. Have we reached a tipping point? I don't pretend to know, but Tom Yulsman at Discover Magazine ImaGeo isn't the only one who is alarmed: "Sea
ice in the Arctic has been trending at record low levels since the
third week of October — and now, something really crazy is happening up
there. The Arctic is heading into the dead of winter, and across a vast
swath of territory, the polar night has descended, with 24 hours of
darkness each day. This is when temperatures should be plunging, and sea
ice should be expanding rapidly. Instead, temperatures are soaring, and
sea ice is actually shrinking. This shouldn’t be happening..."

Animation credit: "Changes
in the concentration of Arctic sea ice between Nov. 12 and 19, 2016 are
seen in this animation of satellite data. The North Pole is at the
center. Areas with 100 percent coverage of ice are depicted in white.
Lighter to darker blue tones are indicative of decreasing
concentrations. And areas with no ice are in gray. Ice actually
decreased within the area circled in red in the first frame of the
animation." (Data: University of Bremen. Images: Polar View. Animation: Tom Yulsman).

Crazy Cryosphere: Record Low Sea Ice, An Overheated Arctic, and a Snowbound Eurasia. Bob Henson has an informative post with more information about what's happening at the top of the world at WunderBlog: "There
are weather and climate records, and then there are truly exceptional
events that leave all others in the dust. Such has been the case across
Earth’s high latitudes during this last quarter of 2016, on track to be
the planet’s warmest year on record. Sea ice extent and area have both
plummeted to record lows for this time of year in both the Arctic and
Antarctic. Such dramatic losses rarely occur at the same time, which
means that the global total of sea ice coverage is phenomenally low for
this time of year. The weirdness extends to midlatitudes: North America
as well as the Arctic have been bathed in unusual mildness over the last
several weeks, while Eurasia deals with a vast zone of above-average
snowfall and below-average temperatures..."

Graphic credit: "The
normalized value of global sea ice area as of November 17, 2016, was so
far from any other total in the 37-year record that it represented a
departure of about 8 standard deviations below the average! Image
credit: Wipneus, using data from National Snow and Ice Data Center." (NSIDC was not involved in producing this image.)U.S. Launches Revolutionary Weather Satellite. The Washington Post has more clarity and background on what makes GOES-R a massive step forward for the science of meteorology: "...The
“camera” instrument on GOES-R — called the Advanced — doubles the
resolution of the current NOAA satellites. It can scan the whole
hemisphere in five minutes, and if there’s a particularly dangerous
weather pattern approaching, forecasters can scan a smaller region over
the United States every 30 seconds. Sudden bursts of lightning could
mean thunderstorms are becoming severe. So, GOES-R has a lightning
mapper to continuously monitor and transmit all of the lightning strikes
across North America and the surrounding oceans..."

What's It Like To Fly Into The Eye of a Hurricane? Here's an excerpt of a fascinating chronology of a Hurricane Hunter flight into "Matthew", courtesy of NOAA AOML: "...We
started bouncing up and down at a much faster rate, much like a very
intense wooden roller coaster, as I tried to contain my stomach from
getting too upset. As we pounded through the eyewall and made it into
the eye, what I saw and experienced was truly breathtaking; thick white
clouds above and below as far as the eye could see as blue skies and
ocean attempted to pierce through, the turbulence experienced just
moments prior was quickly winding down, and a sense of calmness
surrounded us as we entered the eye of Hurricane Matthew. I was so taken
aback by the magnitude of what I was seeing that I almost forgot to do
my job and immediately started taking pictures and videos of the eye..."

Photo credit: "The eyewall of Hurricane Matthew as the aircraft was making a pass through." Image credit: NOAA.

Massive Forest Death Continues in California. Summit County Citzens Voice has the story; here's the intro: "California’s
long-term drought has claimed another 36 million trees, the U.S. Forest
Service said this week, announcing the results of a new aerial survey.
Since 2010, more than 100 million trees have died across 7.7 million
acres, the agency said. The die-off intensified in 2016, after four
years of drought, with mortality increasing 100 percent. Millions of
additional trees are weakened and expected to die in the coming months
and years. Forest Service leaders once again emphasized that their
ability to address safety issues linked with dead trees has been
severely hampered by climate change and limited resources..."

Photo credit: "A stand of pine-beetle killed lodgepole pines on the White River National Forest." @bberwyn photo.Earthquakes: Reckoning With The Big One in California - And It Just Got Bigger. Here's a good summary of a recent study at The Wall Street Journal: "...For
years, scientists believed the mighty San Andreas—the 800-mile-long
fault running the length of California where the Pacific and North
American plates meet—could only rupture in isolated sections. But a
recent study by federal, state and academic researchers showed that much
of the fault could unzip all at once, unleashing a rare, singular
catastrophe. Now, insurers have used that research to come up with a new
analysis of the damage that could be caused by statewide break of the
San Andreas..."

Why President Trump Can't Squash The Innovating, Job-Creating, Money-Saving Clean Energy Industry.
I have yet to meet anyone who doesn't want to save money. If it helps
to clean up the air and improves our kids' health, all the better.
Here's an excerpt from Quartz: "...Outside
of Washington, there is overwhelming support for renewable energy.
Gallup found that 79% of Americans would like to see more emphasis on
domestic solar energy production and they are increasingly voting with
their roofs: more than one million US homes now have
solar panels installed. Red states like South Dakota and Idaho are on
the forefront of renewable energy adoption alongside blue states like
California and Massachusetts. Clean energy is not a partisan issue—it’s
a technology that can provide solid middle class jobs and energy
savings for all...."

A Golden Age For Television Series - But Can It Last? Here's a snippet of an interesting story at The Washington Post: "...But
the wild spending is stoking fears about whether or when TV’s financial
bubble might burst. The glut of scripted dramas and comedies has
dramatically boosted budgets, but it has not solved the industry’s most
dire dilemma: The lack of a functioning business model for a new TV era.
“The overall television ecosystem can’t sustain this,” said Eric
Schrier, president of original programming for FX Networks, home of Emmy
winners such as “The Americans” and “The People v. O.J. Simpson:
American Crime Story.” “There are networks [investing] in original
programming and scripted TV that are trying to justify their existence
by being in that business,” Schrier added. “And as the consumer can’t
consume all this content, the strong will survive and the weak will not
be able to exist...”

Major
Hurricane Joaquin is shown at the far eastern periphery of the GOES
West (GOES-15) satellite’s full disk extent, taken at 1200Z on October
1, 2015. Credit: NOAA

Quit Social Media, Your Career May Depend On It. Are we distracting ourselves to death? Here's an excerpt from an interesting essay at The New York Times: "...The
idea that if you engage in enough of this low-value activity, it will
somehow add up to something of high value in your career is the same
dubious alchemy that forms the core of most snake oil and flimflam in
business. Professional success is hard, but it’s not complicated. The
foundation to achievement and fulfillment, almost without exception,
requires that you hone a useful craft and then apply it to things that
people care about. This is a philosophy perhaps best summarized by the
advice Steve Martin used to give aspiring entertainers: “Be so good they
can’t ignore you.” If you do that, the rest will work itself out,
regardless of the size of your Instagram following..."

How Social Media Broke Democracy.
We are lost in our social media news consumption bubbles, and this
makes it harder to empathize with others? Here's an excerpt of a
thought-provoking essay from Tobias Rose-Stockwell at Medium: "...Facebook has stated that their mission is to make the world a more open and connected place.And they have, by anyone’s measure, connected more humans than any company in history.
With this success, they have also created a tool that has allowed us to
become more insulated in our own ideological bubbles than we ever have
been before. Because of this lack of pluralism, we are systematically losing our ability to empathize.
This is what we now see in the wider world — from Brexit to Trump to
hyper-nationalistic movements worldwide. People globally no longer have
the same incentives to find a shared understanding. This is not just
dissatisfaction with globalization or the status quo. This is how we are changing our society by not seeing each other..."

Image credit: Wall Street Journal's Blue Feed, Red Feed. Check out the different in tone, style and "facts" for the same topic.

Minnesota Weather Goes From Fall to Frozen in Two Days. Reddit Freaks Out. I had to laugh, reading this post at City Pages. Check your location on a map. You live in Minnesota, where the weather (often) changes on a dime: "...During
a break in the toil, Gibbs took his phone and snapped another photo,
looking to capture how rapidly the weather had changed in just 48 hours.
He spliced the two side-by-side. The difference in scenes is
remarkable. The Wednesday "before" photo looks like a catalogue shot
that could be used to sell lakefront properties. The Friday "after" shot
looks like the setting for a National Geographic show about Kodiak bear
hibernation..."

Photo credit: "Minnesota's winter snuck up on us. Then whacked us in the face." Ethan Gibbs.

Paul Douglas Lays Out a Faith-Based Approach to Climate Change. My
thanks to Esme Murphy and WCCO-TV for inviting me to come to the
station Sunday and discuss ways to reach out to evangelicals and
conservatives; to try and tell the climate story in ways that resonate
with their lives and spirituality. Here's an excerpt from CBS Minnesota: "Douglas,
who was a guest on WCCO Sunday Morning, said his book in an attempt to
reframe the discussion about climate change into something beyond just
the science, which he describes as undeniable. “You can pile on the
science, but at some point, people tune out the science,” Douglas said.
“But if you frame this under the guise of clean energy, energy freedom,
energy security…it’s framing the story in a way that resonates and
appeals to peoples’ faith.” Douglas says that Christians, as stewards of
the Earth, have a moral obligation to do something about climate change
and the threat it poses to the world..."

North Pole Above Freezing In Sign of "Sudden" and "Very Serious" Climate Change. Alarmist hype? We'll see, but we are in uncharted waters. Literally. Here's an excerpt from The Independent: "...Professor
Peter Wadhams, head of the Polar Ocean Physics Group at Cambridge
University, told The Independent that such warmth in the Arctic at this
time of year was once virtually unheard of. “Temperatures of more than
zero are really exceptional for this time of year. It’s remarkable in
terms of the way the climate used to be, but over the past six years
this is what’s developed,” he said. It was, he said, the result of a
“sudden” change in the jet stream – high altitude winds that circle the
globe and have a major effect on the weather..."

U.S. Record Heat Poised To Outpace Record Cold By Factor of 15 Late This Century. Jason Samenow reports at Capital Weather Gang; here's an excerpt: "...Every
degree of warming makes a substantial amount of difference,” Meehl
said. Meehl’s latest work, with co-authors Claudia Tebaldi and Dennis
Adams-Smith, builds on a study he published (with colleagues) in 2009.
It found that, since 2000, about twice as many record highs as record
lows had occurred in the continental U.S. If the climate was not
changing, roughly an equal number of record highs and lows would have
been expected..."

Graphic credit: "This
figure shows the percentage of daily temperature records set at weather
stations across the contiguous 48 states by decade. Record highs (red)
are compared with record lows (blue)." (U.S. EPA from Meehl et al., 2009)

The Rockefeller Family Fund vs. Exxon. Here's an excerpt of a long, fascinating and troubling story at The New York Review of Books: "Earlier this year our organization, the Rockefeller Family Fund (RFF),
announced that it would divest its holdings in fossil fuel companies.
We mean to do this gradually, but in a public statement we singled out
ExxonMobil for immediate divestment because of its “morally
reprehensible conduct.”1
For over a quarter-century the company tried to deceive policymakers
and the public about the realities of climate change, protecting its
profits at the cost of immense damage to life on this planet. Our
criticism carries a certain historical irony. John D. Rockefeller
founded Standard Oil, and ExxonMobil is Standard Oil’s largest direct
descendant. In a sense we were turning against the company where most of
the Rockefeller family’s wealth was created..."