Arizona presidential primary plan may disrupt calendar

Jan. plan could prompt other states to adjust

by Dan Nowicki - Jul. 26, 2011 12:00 AMThe Arizona Republic

Arizona could upend the 2012 presidential-primary calendar if Gov. Jan Brewer carries through with a plan to move the state's presidential-preference election to Jan. 31, possibly prompting the traditionally early states of Iowa and New Hampshire to hold their contests before Christmas.

National Republican and Democratic party rules allow only Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada to host caucuses or primaries before March 6.

Leaping ahead of that date - something Brewer says she wants to do to make Arizonans major players in the presidential race - could cost Arizona half of its delegates at the 2012 Republican National Convention in Tampa. It also likely would trigger a repeat of the frenzied front-loading of the presidential calendar that happened in 2008, when seven states crammed their contests into January.

"New Hampshire has said, 'If we have to hold our primary in December, we will,' " said Jennifer Duffy, a national political analyst and senior editor at the nonpartisan "Cook Political Report" in Washington, D.C. "You're not going to beat either Iowa or New Hampshire. . . . They can ruin everybody's holidays."

Brewer said last week that she believes an early Arizona primary would force presidential candidates to campaign here and pay more attention to the state's issues. And even Arizona's statutory date for its 2012 preference election - the fourth Tuesday of February, or Feb. 28 - is out of compliance with the Republican and Democratic national committee timetables.

Although state law gives the governor the authority to move up the election date by proclamation, a special legislative session would be needed to change the law and move the date back to comply with party rules, said Matthew Benson, a Brewer spokesman.

Brewer must give at least 150 days' notice, so she still has until early September to make a final decision.

"It is not set in stone," Benson said. "The governor is leaning toward January 31."

The compressed 2008 schedule, which officially started with the Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses, was widely criticized. New Hampshire, Michigan, Nevada, South Carolina and Florida also had primaries or caucuses that month while Wyoming picked delegates at little-noticed GOP county conventions. The back-to-back elections gave candidates little time to campaign in each state and capitalize on any momentum from earlier victories.

Some complained that the breakneck pace of the whirlwind schedule favored the candidates with the most money and high name recognition. A hopeful such as former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who upset the Republican field in Iowa, did not have much of a chance to break out and become the GOP frontrunner.

"Everyone agreed it was a disaster," said Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. "The entire political community feels that way."

Right now, Iowa is set to hold its caucuses on Feb. 6. New Hampshire, which has a state law that requires it to hold its first-in-the-nation primary at least seven days before any other state's, has not set an official date for its primary, but it is tentatively scheduled for Feb. 14.

Nevada and South Carolina are the only other states that have the parties' permission to hold, respectively, a caucus and a primary before March 6.

Arizona is not alone in causing scheduling anxiety. Florida also has a Jan. 31 presidential-primary election date on its books, although the state is supposed to pick a new date by Oct. 1.

The Miami Herald reported this month that Florida Gov. Rick Scott and other state GOP officials are considering March 1, 2 or 3. Any of those days would still be a Republican National Convention violation but at least wouldn't make the four approved early states have to reschedule. But an Arizona move to January could cause Florida to reconsider.

"We're working with all states and state parties to ensure compliance with the RNC rules," said Sean Spicer, the committee's communications director.

Brewer's theory that an earlier primary date would require GOP White House contenders to focus on Arizona also could backfire. In 2008, for example, the major Democratic candidates largely shunned Michigan and Florida after the states elbowed their way to the front of the primary calendar in defiance of the party.

"It's not going to get her any additional attention," Sabato said. "Everyone's going to be furious at her and Arizona. This would explode the entire process."

Arizona has experimented with early primary dates in the past.

The state's first-ever presidential-preference election was held in 1996. State Republicans touted Arizona at the time as the "New Hampshire of the West," and for a brief time, there was a standoff over whether Arizona or New Hampshire would hold the first primary that year.

The Arizona primary eventually was scheduled for Feb. 27, 1996, one week after New Hampshire, which has held the first-in-the-nation primary since 1920.

The Republican political jockeying for an early spot on the calendar largely was viewed as an effort to help the presidential campaign of then-U.S. Sen. Phil Gramm, R-Texas, an ally of then-Arizona Gov. Fife Symington and U.S. Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz. But Gramm had already dropped out of the race by the time Arizona Republicans went to the polls. Multimillionaire publisher Steve Forbes won the primary.