Based on this it seems the cost savings are:
1/2 the storage
No THX
Digital-only tuners
No front panel display
Standard remote (I assume this means the peanut)

Smart moves by Tivo. At least for my case:
1/2 the storage - doesn't matter: in fact it should just sell with a tiny drive big enough for the OS and let the consumer pick a hard drive for the video portion.

No THX - not sure really what THX certification really gives you other than bragging rights?

Digital-only tuners - Don't care. With cablecards there are no analog channels in my lineup. From AVS forums it seems like most of the big cable companies are digital simulcasting most or all channels in analog lineup. NOTE: The real cost savings there is not getting rid of NTSC tuners, it's the mpeg encoders.

No front panel display - can't read the darn thing on the S3 anyway.

Standard remote - Never use the OEM remotes, a universal remote is the only way to go.

They should also get rid of the front panel buttons if they haven't already...

Makes me almost regret my 2nd S3 purchase for $400 after rebate... but then again $100 more is not much to fret about.

So what are the odds on them screwing us with no HDMI on the Lite as a model differentiation tactic?

Don't think they would do that but honestly I wouldn't care about that either. I hate the DRM-loaded HDMI output anyway and component looks just as good to me on my 47" Westinghouse LCD without the hassles or problems.

Surprised that the hard drive is going to be smaller than 250GB - you would think Tivo would want larger capacity than the standard MSO DVR as a selling point, assuming they ever do a "Tivo to cable" comparasion chart.

I have mixed feelings about this. Personally I would just as soon take it for less $$ with no HD. Anything they ship is going to be useless to me.

On the other hand, from a market standpoint, doing less than 250 GB for the cheap-o-s3-lite makes me uncomfortable. (Edit: I'll dovetail this into my belief that TiVo is about to ship/price the right DVR for last year's market.)

It is absurd that the so-called premium S3 still ships with only a 250GB HD. Perhaps they have so many sitting in the warehouse that they are still selling off.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Neenahboy

So what are the odds on them screwing us with no HDMI on the Lite as a model differentiation tactic?

I'll guess less than 0%.

Which is also going to be my guess for lack of analog recording capability.

I have mixed feelings about this. Personally I would just as soon take it for less $$ with no HD. Anything they ship is going to be useless to me.

On the other hand, from a market standpoint, doing less than 250 GB for the cheap-o-s3-lite makes me uncomfortable. (Edit: I'll dovetail this into my belief that TiVo is about to ship/price the right DVR for last year's market.)

It is absurd that the so-called premium S3 still ships with only a 250GB HD. Perhaps they have so many sitting in the warehouse that they are still selling off.

I agree with you that whatever size drive will be useless to me, as I'll replace it, but we aren't the target market. And, if they make the external hard drive connection officially supported with the software update and offer a Tivo-branded "plug and play" external drive option, much like the Tivo-branded wireless G adapter, then the size of the shipping harddrive won't really matter.

I don't really care about the size of the hard drive in the "premium" S3 either, for the same reason. I'm not going to lose any sleep over "how come the S3lite is pretty much the same as the S3, but $500 less" - all I want to see is Tivo significantly increase the number of S3 boxes of either variety in the marketplace ASAP.

For the general market, I am not very enthusiastic about adding an external hard drive.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jfh3

Another thought - if the S3lite is indeed as rumored and is at $299, why would Tivo continue to market the S2DT?

Does the S3lite become "the" TiVo box?

No, the S2 market still has some life in it. Why throw away the 30, 50, even 80K Gross Ads per quarter you could still get at current prices?

The questionable one is the S3. I see very little reason for its continued existence. If they lower the price to $399 you have to wonder if they lose too much money on it. Above that, there are not going to be enough takers to make it worthwhile.

Quote:

What is the right DVR/price for this year's market?

Like I said when the S3 was introduced, its not going to bother me if they grab some low hanging fanboys for $299 for a short while. But they need to come down $50, maybe $70 for XMAS to really hit it big. So I hope they can afford that.

Also, they need to have the guts to believe that their subs will stick around a while and dump the commitment/$16.95 cr@p that is retarding sales.

For the box per se, more of a DMR which can support accessing content from a broad range of internet sources, and support various standard formats and DRM, and particularly protected WMV. And a bigger HD.

No, the S2 market still has some life in it. The questionable one is the S3. I see very little reason for its continued existence.

I agree, but if there is little functional difference between the S3s - why care? Have a firesale to blow out remaining stock and leave a few for high-end AV "status" dealers to sell.

Quote:

Like I said when the S3 was introduced, its not going to bother me if they grab some low hanging fanboys for $299 for a short while. But they need to come down $50, maybe $70 for XMAS to really hit it big. So I hope they can afford that.

The magic price point would seem to be $99.

Quote:

Also, they need to have the guts to believe that their subs will stick around a while and dump the commitment/$16.95 cr@p that is retarding sales.

Agreed, especially for used boxes. And the standard monthly service charge should be less than whatever the average MSO DVR rental is.

Quote:

For the box per se, more of a DMR which can support accessing content from a broad range of internet sources, and support various standard formats and DRM, and particularly protected WMV.

$49 or $99 are considered "impulse buy" price points in the CE world. (To a lesser extent, $149 and $199). I say $99 just because I don't see any practical way to even consider $49.

$299 is still a big ticket item, especially if people incorrectly believe "that cable DVRs are free".

Oh, I see. Of course there is no practical way to price the S3-Lite at $99 in the current context.

I say "finance" it for zero down and an extra $X,Y,Z per month for 1,2,3 years over (more reasonable) service pricing. Of course, you don't present it that way. Its $16.95/mo for 3 years or $18.95/mo for 2 years, or whatever.

Or its $299 and $9.95/mo, or $599 w/ Lifetime, or whatever. Once you go above zero down, forget variability of monthly rates; just give people the choice of an all-in price, or a box price and a low monthly service fee which they can understand the value of.

Note: These numbers are intended to be illustrative of the concepts, not precise prices.

What I mean is that I shouldn't have to re-encode video through a hacked firewire interface that ignores macrovision in order to get an Amazon unbox video onto a DVD. I paid for the video; I should be able to do what I want with it for my own personal use.

Or its $299 and $9.95/mo, or $599 w/ Lifetime, or whatever. Once you go above zero down, forget variablity of monthly rates; just give people the choice of an all-in price, or a box price and a low monthly service fee which they can understand the value of.

Yeah, except the problem with that is that people say "why am I paying $x for guide data" and don't understand the concept of the "TiVo service".

I'm afraid if you go back to the "bundle service with the box model", that you allow the MSOs to keep the upper hand by marketing "free DVRs".

Like I said when the S3 was introduced, its not going to bother me if they grab some low hanging fanboys for $299 for a short while. But they need to come down $50, maybe $70 for XMAS to really hit it big. So I hope they can afford that.

Also, they need to have the guts to believe that their subs will stick around a while and dump the commitment/$16.95 cr@p that is retarding sales.

For the box per se, more of a DMR which can support accessing content from a broad range of internet sources, and support various standard formats and DRM, and particularly protected WMV. And a bigger HD.

I want a pony.

__________________"I know I've known how to do that at some point, but I don't remember how at the moment." - a truth learned on TCF

I agree- As many of us here know- a very large percentage of channels in the "Digital" tier are actually delivered in Analog. About 85% of the channels I record are analog.

So I think someone's imagination has gone off the deep end. They are guessing that analog is not necessary after the OTA shutoff. Not so- it is nearly 50% of the cable sub market. Total Analog.

I have absolutely no facts or figures on this, but I would guess that with the advent of SDV, digital simulcast, and local station HDTV availability the percentage of viewing of analog for those with HDTV would be very small. My guess would be less than 20%, and shrinking.

I have absolutely no facts or figures on this, but I would guess that with the advent of SDV, digital simulcast, and local station HDTV availability the percentage of viewing of analog for those with HDTV would be very small. My guess would be less than 20%, and shrinking.

By end 2007, ~100% of Comcast systems are supposed to have digital simulcast and the other majors (Time Warner, Cox, etc) aren't far behind.

I would bet at least half those that receive analog channels now only do so due to a configuration error at the headend, which prevents the digital simulcast from taking precedence over the analog feeds on the Tivo Series3. As for what will happen with these misconfigured systems when the analog channels are removed, I do not know.

The lack of an analog tuner should only be a problem for those with smaller, independent cable providers, but that represents a small slice of the market. They can always buy the original Series3.

I want to know...why the S3s don't do satelites? Why is Tivo denying the consumers an option to swich sources.

Would you pay more than 2x the cost of an S3 for one that could do Satellite? The technology to record HD from an external STB is currently not a consumer level technology and is very expensive. The real question is why are satellite companies denying consumers the option of TiVo?

__________________
Earl: A purpose is a great thing to have, it gives you a reason to wake up every morning.
Randy: So a purpose is like a box of powdered donut holes?
Earl: Exactly.

Would you pay more than 2x the cost of an S3 for one that could do Satellite? The technology to record HD from an external STB is currently not a consumer level technology and is very expensive. The real question is why are satellite companies denying consumers the option of TiVo?

I don't understand why once we have the HD DATA ( either from the CC or Sat box, that DIGITAL DATA can not be recorded to the hard drive.

Isn't Digital Data, digital data. Why would it cost 2x the price to add that feature?

I have no inside news but expect announcements in the next month or so.

As of March the FCC no longer allows TV equipment to be manufactured with only analog tuners. Anything already in the warehouse can continue to be sold, but stores are required to post signs warning consumers that all broadcast TV is scheduled to be digital in Feb 09.

The fall TV retailing season pretty much follows football. New models hit stores in late August/early September and marketing ramps up for the peak around Christmas followed by spring model launches and a clearance sale for Super Bowl.

Manufacturers and retailers will probably have a big push this fal to convince consumers that they need to replace existing analog-only TVs, VCR, etc, rather than buy a converter and wait for the old stuff to die.

Sony, Panasonic, etc, have announced their fall large-screen TV models over the past few weeks but I've noticed a dearth of news about new smaller-size TVs or recorders (VCR/DVR/DVD). They probably realize that sales of analog-only models will dry up once they announce new digital units at the same price points.

So TiVo and the rest have chosen to stay mum, offer big discounts and hope to get rid of as many of the discontinued models as possible over the summer.

This quiet period will also allow TiVo to take advantage of a new generation of hard drives to reduce component costs without cutting capacity. Anything less than 250gb will have limited functionality in the digital era, especially on multi-tuner models.