UPS Stock

Considering the events with the contract and the overall market sliding backwards I've felt UPS was holding up rather well. The down days have generally been light in volume but we tend to track upwards when volume approaches 1.5M in shares traded. What interest me in the last 2 days we've seen Yellow Freight and CF both announce rates increases over 5% and is the street starting to see a contract settlement in the very near future along with LTL volume transfer to UPS once a work stoppage is out of the picture? Just curious if anyone else has a thought on the current situation.

Bears target price of $80 seems a bit aggressive under current economic conditions. We could see $80 if 3 distinct things happen, we have a quick contract settlement, we get added to the S&amp;P 500, and the economy shows positive signs of recovery. All these would have to happen closely for the stock to jump by 33%. I'd just be happy to see $70 once again.

bus,
Hopefully we will have a contract agreement.
I think we can already rule out the word quick
however. Its about to be June, and from what I
have read, they haven't even gotten to the really
hard parts yet. My own personal opinion is that
we will not see an agreement till early July
at the earliest.

Hey All,
As for the stock today, nice rally with over 3 mil shares changing hands. As for projections of $80 per share in 18 months, I've seen estimates of $2.60 per share earnings for next year and our PE currently is 26 plus but has been as high as near 30 and with a 30 PE we are right at $80 per share so that may be the thinking here. I stopped and talked with a BD manager this morning in the parking lot about the Yellow Freight and CF rate increases and the effect it could have on UPS with LTL and more specific the 100 weight volume. Without going into details let's just say I walked in with a nice smile on my face and spring in my step and it wasn't because it was Friday either. I do think once the contract is nailed down our business is off to the races. JMO!

BTW BadHab, was jawboning and laughing with another UPSer (GWARD) about you this evening during the Sort. Were your ears burning? LOL! Stop by one evening during the Sort. Would love to see you. And Bus, when is #99 gonna get a win? Rousch is coming on this year and Jeff is the only one left. Think of you everytime I see a motorhome. Take care all.

Expectations in the market are almost as predictable as the weather. When ups had its best ever quarters the stock went down. Now with the contract problems and earnings somewhat declining the stock is rising. I have found that predicting stocks especially short term is an exercise in futility. However my SWAG would be in the words of the finacial world, "a move to the upside, going forward, may have merit based on the upside musings of Bare and Stern two of the most respected heferdust distributors on Wall Street." Going forward an $80 share price may be feasable if the trend in airfreight volume, economic recovery, consumer confidence, and factory goods continues in an upward pattern. However due to regulations we cannot garauntee anything based on these forward looking statements. Our consesus(bare &amp; stern)estimate is "your guess is as good as ours.

The market went to Hell today and UPS went up to 67. I predict, foolishly perhaps, that we will be up to 70 next week and that our new floor will soon be 71. Foolish or not, I am very happy to see us approach the highs reached during the IPO days. Long on UPS..............Bill