AP FACT CHECK: Trump offers skewed view of farm trade

By CALVIN WOODWARD and JOSH BOAKJuly 20, 2018

FILE - In this July 19, 2018 file photo, President Donald Trump speaks before signing an Executive Order that establishes a National Council for the American Worker during a ceremony in the East Room of the White House in Washington. Trump said he’s willing to hit all imported goods from China with tariffs, sending U.S. markets sliding before the opening bell, Friday, July 20. In a taped interview with the business channel CNBC, Trump said “I’m willing to go to 500,” referring roughly to the $505.5 in goods imported last year from China. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik, File)

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump is promoting a lopsided view of agricultural trade as he assails “bad (terrible) Trade Deals with other countries.” Agriculture is actually a strong point for U.S. commerce.

A look at his tweet Friday:

TRUMP: “Farmers have been on a downward trend for 15 years. The price of soybeans has fallen 50% since 5 years before the Election. A big reason is bad (terrible) Trade Deals with other countries. They put on massive Tariffs and Barriers. Canada charges 275% on Dairy. Farmers will WIN!”

THE FACTS: You wouldn’t know from the president’s rhetoric that the U.S. exports more agricultural products than it imports, running a $17.4 billion surplus with the world last year on that front. Trump has several times cited 15 years of trouble for U.S. farmers even as his Agriculture Department highlights the fact that U.S. exports of food products have grown “steadily over the last two decades.” The U.S. maintained a surplus in the latest monthly figures — $716 million in May.

As for soybeans, he is ignoring a big — and positive — reason why soybean prices fell in recent years to about $9.39 a bushel in 2017 from about $14 in 2012 and 2013: Farmers have been flooding the market with soybeans.

In fact, the Agriculture Department reported that a record 89 million acres of soybeans were harvested last year. That is about 13.3 million acres more than in 2013. Prices, of course, generally fall as supply rises to meet demand. The Agriculture Department figures suggest that soybean prices have held relatively steady since 2015, a sign that farmers are planting enough to meet their customers’ needs.

But that was before the U.S. trade war with China. With China imposing a new, retaliatory tariff on U.S. soybeans, their price per bushel dropped this week by about 20 percent since early May to a 10-year low.

Soybean exports have remained flat or dropped somewhat in recent years — peaking at $24.8 billion in 2012 after years of growth, and declining to $21.5 billion last year. But the overall value of the harvest has stayed strong. Soybean production in each of the last two years was valued at about $41 billion, approaching the peak of more than $43 billion in 2012 and 2013.

Soybeans only became a $30-billion-plus enterprise in the last decade.

Trump is right that Canada has steep dairy tariffs, averaging nearly 240 percent, according to the World Trade Organization. Despite that, the U.S. last year ran a $474 million surplus in dairy trade with Canada.