Tuesday, March 31, 2009

With just over two weeks left before the spring signing period, recruiting has really started to heat up for those programs with scholarships to fill. Iowa would just happen to be one of those programs wanting to do just that, considering they just lost four of their players before they were expected to leave.

So what's happening on the scene? A lot. Some of it we know about, much of it we don't. Here's some of the latest information.

CULLY PAYNE

If this name sounds familiar to those of you who follow Iowa Hawkeye Basketball recruiting, it's because the Iowa staff heavily recruited Cully after he decommitted from DePaul his junior year. At that time Iowa was one of the Top 3 for Payne's services, but ultimately he chose Alabama. Things changed, however, when Mark Gottfried stepped down from his coaching duties for the Crimson Tide. Bama went on to hire VCU's Anthony Grant and just recently Payne was allowed out of his LOI. That throws him back on the market. Washington State was another player in Payne's recruitment, however Tony Bennett has left that school for Virginia. It would seem that Iowa is in good shape with him. Payne will be in town tomorrow for visit, where a commitment isn't totally out of the question at this part of the game.

I am, by no means, trying to pimp Hawkeyenation.com, but if you aren't a paying member of the site, this would be the month to jump on board. Rob Howe has been doing a great job getting in touch with the recruits, and he has a gem of a interview with Cully Payne.

Cully injured his back this winter, so hopefully that isn't a chronic injury.

Don't be surprised if the coaching staff had this in play for some time, Payne's AAU coach has been quoted saying that Cully had made his decision a while ago.

MALCOLM ARMSTEAD

Still being told that Mac is the #1 priority for Iowa, and I don't blame them. They were recruiting him before they lost the services of Kelly, Peterson, and Davis. Now it's even more important for the staff to reel in a talented point guard. And while Payne might be able to fill that role, Iowa's backcourt is pretty limited with only Anthony Tucker and Devan Bawinkel returning. Someone with the speed and skills that Armstead possesses is exactly who the Hawks need in their lineup.

There are several guards to keep an eye on during the next few weeks leading up to the signing period. Their decisions could effect what Armstead decides to do. Rico Pickett and Melvin Goins are two JUCOs that both Tennessee and Kentucky are involved in (these schools are also looking at Armstead). Today, Goins committed to Tennessee, so that should effectively eliminate Bruce Pearl from landing Armstead. Kentucky is in the middle of a coaching change, so that, too, will help out Iowa. Julysses Nobles is another name to remember. Arkansas is looking at him for PG. If he commits, I don't see room for Armstead especially with Courtney Fortson on the team already. He is reportedly supposed to pick his school tonight, hopefully it will be Arkansas. Then it will likely be down to Iowa vs. Providence and a few other Big East and SEC schools for Armstead's services.

I thought it would hurt Iowa the longer it took, but with the way these other recruits are committing, it's actually helping Iowa, in my opinion.

If Iowa could land Armstead, they would have a starter at PG for the next three years.

TORYE PELHAM

He's still on the radar, but I personally don't buy the fact that he and Armstead are a package deal. I'm not saying the two aren't tight, they did play prep ball together and now at Chipola, but it's pretty hard to find a college that has two spots open for two JUCOs in the spring signing period. I'd love for Iowa to be that college, though. That said, I don't think they end up at the same school. Iowa can definitely use an athletic forward who can get up a la Doug Thomas.

Missouri has come knocking and with the style of play they have going on down there, it would seem like a logical fit for Pelham.

VINCENT WILLIAMS

PG who was thought to have been destined to go the prep school route has seen a bunch of offers come his way. Another Florida guard recruit possibility. Very slight of build, but has good skills. I just recently received this info from a friend and haven't looked into it much. Not even sure Iowa is really going after him, but it's a name that's out there. He may have to go prep route to refine his game and get stronger, though.

Friday, March 27, 2009

With the 4 transfers, as well as the announcement the de-commitment of 2010 Marshalltown recruit, Chanse Creekmur, Lickliter and his assistants have been on the move. The departures were obviously not something that just suddenly sprung up on the coaching staff. They've been recruiting the JUCO ranks very hard the past month.

As previously mentioned, Malcolm Armstead is the key recruit for this staff. It looks good for a visit by Mac. Pegged as the best JUCO PG on the market, Armstead would bring the speed that this Iowa team desperately needs. SEASON HIGHLIGHT - VIDEO.

Another JUCO to look at is Torye Pelham, teammate of Armstead. They have talked about going to the same college after JUCO, so we'll see. At this point, Armstead is much more of a priority for Iowa. SEASON HIGHLIGHT - VIDEO.

Iowa also has their eye on several other JUCOs.

Zach McCabe, teammate of Iowa commit Brennan Cougill, now holds an offer from Iowa, as well. It appears that Creekmur's loss is McCabe's gain.

Right now, Iowa has 3 recruits set to come in: May, Cougill, and Archie. They'll need one more to feel a little better about next year, two more would be ideal.

No one can say for sure the reason why the mass exodus occurred at Iowa, but four players, including Iowa leading scorer and best player will not be back next year.

Jake Kelly, sophomore guard, is expected to head back to Indiana, possibly transfer to Indiana State.

Jeff Peterson, sophomore guard, frustrated by his role in the program is heading for an unknown destination.

David Palmer, junior forward, is on course to graduate in May and will not be returning to the program. A force out or voluntary leave? Not sure.

Jermain Davis, junior guard, is transferring to Mankato State as he was not happy with his role on the team either.

Black Wednesday was when this info came out - and today it becomes official.

So what's REALLY happening inside the program. This is the third straight year Iowa has had their best player leave the team (Smith, Freeman, Kelly). It's not like this system is easy to pick up or anything. Iowa is now even further behind the 8 ball now.

Recruiting had better get red-hot for Iowa or the Hawks will struggle in the non-conference this year, not to mention the drubbing in conference.

The door is WIDE OPEN for Malcolm Armstead to jump right into a starting role on this team at PG. He canceled his visit at Charlotte and one of his other suitor's, Kentucky, just fired their coach.

Other names are swirling out there, I just hope Iowa can land some of them and they are smart enough to pick up this, apparently, difficult system to pick up.

All that talk looks to have become the truth. Although nothing "official" has been released yet, the Terre Haute News has talked to Bob Kelly (Jake's dad, not the comedian, but that's not to say Jake's dad doesn't have a sense of humor) and he revealed that Jake has asked for his release from the Iowa Basketball program.

Now Todd Lickliter doesn't necessarily have to honor the release request, however with what we saw happen with Tyler Smith and his family situation it's likely he'll grant it. Then again, I can't help but think Coach Lickliter is pleading with Jake to stay on with his squad.

I have been hoping that we haven't seen the last of Jake Kelly in an Iowa Hawkeye uniform, but it looks like nothing but bad news for Hawk fans.

This year another contender steps up to the plate to prove once and for all that filling out your bracket might just be a glorious crap shoot.

Here was the premise. I printed out all of the teams (with their record to help him out, of course) and presented him with each matchup as it came up. I randomly chose which side each team was presented to him to avoid biasing the results.

The winner of the round was determined by staying in play the longest on the table.

Rulings included:

First team to be tossed off the table was out.

First team to be eaten (or inserted into the mouth) was out.

In the event of a tie, the top facing team in the mouth was out.

The NCAA Champion was selected by the first team chosen of the two contenders.

Let's Go! (NOTE: All pics are clickable for larger images)

Studying the Field

FIRST ROUND

Morehead State was the first to fall.

Ohio State suffered the same fate. Perhaps he has a vendetta against the State colleges?

Usually he likes Hug(gin)s, but the little man took down the Mountaineers

Midwest: First round winners

He just HAD to take down his dad's alma mater, didn't he?

West: First round winners

East: First round winners

South: First round winners

END OF FIRST ROUND - He managed to keep three 1 seeds, three 2 seeds, and three 3 seeds.

SECOND ROUND

And DOWN GOES MICHIGAN STATE! Literally...

Sweet Sixteen, Baby! All the 3 seeds were knocked off, two 1 seeds and two 2 seeds still alive... and in all honesty, that West Region could really happen.

THIRD ROUNDSome of the Big Boys made it past the Sweet Sixteen.

FOURTH ROUND

A couple 5 vs 1 battles in the Final Four

FIFTH ROUND

Video coverage of the Final Four action:

Utah and FSU survive to play in the championship game - Two #5 seeds willed their way into the Championship Game.

CHAMPIONSHIP GAMEVideo footage of the exciting Championship Game:

And the winner is....

.............................UTAH!

Congratulations to the Utes out of the Mountain West Conference!

QUEUE THE MONTAGE!

Here are the brackets (clickable for bigger image) -

Pax's:

Mine:

I am really torn on the West. I think Missouri has a legitimate chance to get to the Final Four. Here's my alternate bracket:

So back to the recruit. A lot of rumbling that this kid is a project and he can't help the program right now. I'll be honest, I don't know much about him. He's supposed to be a legit 6'9" body, but hasn't played organized ball that long (sound familiar?). I guess my hope is that maybe they redshirt him and then let him play 4 in 5. Not sure. However, if he doesn't redshirt, he might be athletic enough to help out Iowa's interior defense (one that will suffer greatly with Tate's departure). One thing that is undeniable is that the kid has mad hops, and will bring some big time athleticism. How will that work with Lickliter's system, though?

HoopsIndiana has a nice little article on the commit. So WHY Archie? Archie was one of the best prep players in the state of.... Indiana. At Ben Davis high school in... Indianapolis. Starting to make more sense now? It does for me.

But like I said, a lot of people questioning the recruiting capabilities of this staff. But answer me this.

What does Lickliter have to sell to the kids?

Packed house? Nope.

Great facilities? Nope.

Lofty tradition? Nope.

Beaches/Hot weather? Nope.

Winning tradition under Lickliter at Iowa? Nope.

Really, the only selling points are playing time and a chance to resurrect a program. I can't see a lot of 4-5 star recruits jumping at that.

I personally don't know how to rebuild a program, but here are my thoughts. You go out and grab the hard working, versatile players that can play multiple positions. Get smart players, kids that can work well together. Focus on 2 and 3 star type of players that, when in the team environment, can succeed. Get the occasional 4 star if you can, but focus your efforts on the better 3 star type players. Don't go for the big time players, swing and miss (like a former coach of Iowa's) and then be left scrambling for players. Players like Kelly, Gatens, Cole, etc.. are the type of players, in my opinion, that you rebuild a program with. They will be 4 year players that aren't going to bolt to the NBA. They can help the new kids come in with the system and they give the staff 4 years of consistency. I don't believe rebuilding is an overnight deal for Iowa. Some schools have the tradition or coach to bring in the big boys right away, Iowa doesn't.

I think the way Lickliter is going is the way to go.

With the commitment, that fills up Iowa's class for 2009... or DOES IT? Iowa still looks to be recruiting Malcolm Armstead, one of the more promising PGs in the country, who plays on the JUCO powerhouse of Chipola CC. So if Armstead is still in the mix, that means someone goes, but who is it? David Palmer seems to be the most likely candidate. Then again, some of us were saying David would be leaving last year when Iowa was trying to make room for another recruit and he still remained on the team.

Sunday, March 15, 2009

STORMINSPANK'S BRACKETOLOGYFinal Look at Bubble Teams for 2009 and Projecting the NCAA Tourney Field.This will likely be the last update, beside editing for the Big Ten champion.

UPDATES:Mississippi State INFlorida or Auburn OUT, I don't think both get in. I had Florida ranked higher than Auburn, but I like Auburn's play as of late, it will be tough to keep both in. It will have to be one of the two to be knocked out.

LAST FOUR IN:

Florida

Dayton

Creighton

San Diego State

LAST SIX OUT:

Auburn

Boston College

Arizona

Maryland

St Mary's

Penn State

TEAMS THAT I THINK ARE LOCKS/AUTOBIDS (parenthesis contain total number of bids for the conference; the first number is the locks and the second number is the total bids the conference will get as of right now).

Saturday, March 14, 2009

STORMINSPANK'S BRACKETOLOGY2nd Official Look at Bubble Teams for 2009 and Projecting the NCAA Tourney Field.This will likely be the last update, as tomorrow's games really have limited bearing on the field.

UPDATES:Oklahoma State moves from Bubble to Lock.Wisconsin moves from Lock to Bubble.Ohio State moves from Bubble to Lock.Utah State moves from Bubble to Lock.Penn State OUT.St. Mary's OUT.Arizona OUT.Auburn IN.SDSU IN.USC IN.Temple IN.

LAST FIVE IN:

Florida

Dayton

Creighton

Auburn

San Diego State

LAST FIVE OUT:

Boston College

Arizona

Maryland

St Mary's

Penn State

TEAMS THAT I THINK ARE LOCKS/AUTOBIDS (parenthesis contain total number of bids for the conference; the first number is the locks and the second number is the total bids the conference will get as of right now).

Some off the top of my head are Wisconsin moving from a lock to on the bubble, but IN. Also Oklahoma State is easily a lock, and Ohio State is most certainly a lock, as well. There will also be bubble spots taken away as some conf. tourney champs have stolen them from others.

The winner of this matchup has a very good shot at doing well in this tournament. Being on the 2 and 3 seed side is a huge benefit when neither of those seeds are the MSU Spartans. The 7/10 hole has been productive in the past in this tourney, as well, so history is behind it.

I have never liked how Iowa matches up with UM. Harris and Sims are two of the more talented and athletics guys in the Big Ten. However, if Tate can get his ankle shored up after that amazing one-legged performance last time out vs. PSU, Iowa will stick with the Wolves.

Iowa has been in almost every game this year, and with Jake Kelly at the point, the Hawks are much more explosive. I really enjoy watching Jake run the show, he can create a lot of opportunities for Iowa when he has the rock. I also love see both Tate and Cole out there at the same time - what a missed opportuniy that was this year!

This game really could go either way. I think the point spread is a bit high, but Lickliter has had his trouble beaten Beilein in the past.

TODAY'S PROJECTED HAWKEYE KILLER: Manny Harris. Jake destroyed him last time out. And although the Big Ten doesn't recognize it, Kelly is one of the best defenders in the Big Ten. Jake shut him down last time out and (reportedly) forced Beilein to bench his star player in the overtime session. I think Manny is out for redemption in this one.PREDICTION:Iowa - 65Michigan - 69

Wednesday, March 11, 2009

STORMINSPANK'S BRACKETOLOGYInitial Look at Bubble Teams for 2009 and Projecting the NCAA Tourney Field

TEAMS THAT I THINK ARE LOCKS/AUTOBIDS (parenthesis contain total number of bids for the conference; the first number is the locks and the second number is the total bids the conference will get as of right now).

As always, it is assumed for the major conferences that the locks will contain the conf. tourney champion. If someone who isn't a lock wins the conf. tourney, obviously a bubble spot is removed. The Bubble is very fluid the next couple days, a team like Ohio State can win it's first tourney game and they would then go to the lock category, or, as previously mentioned, a non-locked team could win its conf tourney, removing a bubble spot.

Those teams IN are noted with an asterisk (*).ACC:MiamiBoston CollegeMarylandVirginia Tech

A10:Dayton *TempleRhode Island

BIG EAST:Providence

BIG TEN:Ohio State *Michigan *Minnesota *Penn State *Northwestern

BIG XII:Oklahoma State *Kansas StateNebraska

C-USA:UABTulsa

HORIZON:Butler *

MVC:Creighton *Illinois State

MWC:UNLVNew MexicoSan Diego State

PAC-10:Arizona *USC

SEC:AuburnSouth CarolinaFlorida *Kentucky

SOUTHERN:Davidson

WCC:Utah State *

WCC:St. Mary's *

Ranking of the Bubble Teams (As of 3/11/2009)

12 Teams

Rank

Prev. Rank

+/-

Team

Conference

Overall

Conf

RPI

SOS

L10

Top 50 Record

Prev RPI

RPI Diiff

1

NA

####

Oklahoma State

B12

21-10

9-7

25

9

7-3

3-9

25

0

2

NA

####

Ohio State

B10

20-9

10-8

36

31

6-4

5-8

36

0

3

NA

####

Butler

Horizon

26-5

15-3

24

94

7-3

2-1

24

0

4

NA

####

Dayton

A10

25-6

11-5

23

95

6-4

4-2

23

0

5

NA

####

Utah State

WAC

27-4

14-2

26

137

7-3

1-2

26

0

6

NA

####

Michigan

B10

19-12

9-9

42

10

5-5

6-9

42

0

7

NA

####

St Mary's

WCC

25-6

10-4

45

144

7-3

2-3

45

0

8

NA

####

Arizona

P10

19-12

9-9

53

32

6-4

5-8

53

0

9

NA

####

Florida

SEC

22-9

9-7

48

86

4-6

2-6

48

0

10

NA

####

Minnesota

B10

21-9

9-9

40

38

4-6

5-7

40

0

11

NA

####

Penn State

B10

21-10

10-8

64

82

5-5

6-8

64

0

12

NA

####

Creighton

MVC

26-7

14-4

41

107

9-1

3-2

41

0

13

NA

####

UAB

CUSA

21-10

11-5

44

75

8-2

0-5

44

0

14

NA

####

New Mexico

MWC

21-10

12-4

58

80

8-2

3-4

58

0

15

NA

####

Boston College

ACC

21-10

9-7

56

58

6-4

4-4

56

0

16

NA

####

South Carolina

SEC

21-8

10-6

49

93

6-4

1-5

49

0

17

NA

####

Auburn

SEC

21-10

10-6

66

71

8-2

2-5

66

0

18

NA

####

UNLV

MWC

21-9

9-7

57

85

5-5

4-4

57

0

19

NA

####

Temple

A10

19-10

11-5

39

49

7-3

1-5

39

0

20

NA

####

Maryland

ACC

18-12

7-9

67

27

5-5

2-7

67

0

21

NA

####

San Diego State

MWC

21-8

11-5

43

66

7-3

1-5

43

0

22

NA

####

Kansas State

B12

21-10

9-7

75

98

7-3

3-5

75

0

23

NA

####

Davidson

Southern

26-7

18-2

72

164

6-4

1-4

72

0

24

NA

####

USC

P10

18-12

9-9

59

30

4-6

2-8

59

0

25

NA

####

Northwestern

B10

17-12

8-10

69

45

5-5

6-9

69

0

26

NA

####

Rhode Island

A10

22-9

11-5

65

123

8-2

2-5

65

0

27

NA

####

Nebraska

B12

18-12

8-8

68

54

6-4

3-7

68

0

28

NA

####

Providence

Big East

19-12

10-8

70

47

4-6

2-7

70

0

29

NA

####

Tulsa

CUSA

22-9

12-4

61

97

8-2

2-6

61

0

30

NA

####

Illinois State

MVC

24-9

11-7

46

106

5-5

2-1

46

0

31

NA

####

Kentucky

SEC

19-12

8-8

81

62

3-7

4-6

81

0

32

NA

####

Virginia Tech

ACC

17-13

7-9

63

23

3-7

2-8

63

0

33

NA

####

Miami

ACC

18-11

7-9

52

24

4-6

2-7

52

0

NOTES: The Big Ten has a lot to lose in the Big Ten Tourney. Minnesota, Michigan, and Penn State can play themselves out of the Dance with a loss in the first round. While the SEC teams have everything to gain in their conf. tourney. Auburn and SC can punch their cards with a couple wins.

Over the past four years (and the original reason I set up this blog) I have made my predictions on who gets in and who stays home on Selection Sunday. During Championship Week, I usually unveil who I think is in/out. Normally at the end of February / beginning of March I put out my Bubble Watch - I slept on that this year. And even this post is about 4 days overdue. I am currently working on my list 65, including my shake of bubble teams.

It's Senior Day. The crowd should be jacked. The players should remember what went down last time these two teams played. I do not expect any love lost between the Hawks and Lions.

I'm on the road today, so I am not going into depth in this prediction/preview. But I will say this, I like Iowa in this one and I like them big. I haven't been able to say that about this team since The Citadel game. PSU is a decent team, but I really like the matchup today.

Iowa looks like a very capable team with Jake Kelly at the point. He is averaging over 20 points per game his last three games, this after having never eclipsed the 20 point in his collegiate career.

Jarryd Cole continues to impress me with his attitude, hard work, and spark he provides the team.

It's clear we won't see a 100% Cyrus Tate ever don the black and gold again for Iowa, but he's giving his all on the court. At one point in the first half, after picking up his third foul, Lickliter was about to sub in for him. Tate looked back at the bench and said something along the lines of, "Don't take me out. I'm not going to foul." Lickliter went with his captain's advice and Tate finished out the roughly 2 minutes of the half without committing a foul.

It sounds as if Peterson will suit, but not be available tonight again. Iowa misses his handle, but as previously mentioned, Jake Kelly has done more than an admirable job in his absence.

Ohio State is 3-6 on the road, and Iowa is 12-3 at home (losses all to Top 25 teams). The Buckeyes have lost 4 out of 5 and have effectively played themselves off the bubble for the NCAA tourney.

Iowa will likely have issues containing Ohio State's bigs in this one, but I think Tate and Cole can do a lot of damage control down low. The Hawks are going to need to rebound tonight.

Hlas writes that there are postseason ramifications for this game. While I agree on that Iowa has a shot at postseason, I think the Hawkeyes are already sitting very pretty to get to the postseason. Iowa has the best Pomeroy rating of any team in the nation at or below .500 (and better than quite a few teams above .500). They are right around the 80 mark, which arguably means at this time of the season Iowa is one of the top 80 teams in the nation. NIT is likely out, but either of the two other tourney would love to get Iowa.

TODAY'S PROJECTED HAWKEYE KILLER: Jon Diebler. You can be sure that Jake Kelly is going to take Evan Turner, so that leaves likely Bawinkle on Diebler. Not good. It was not good to the tune of 27 points last time out vs. Iowa. Hopefully Lick sticks Gatens on Diebler.

I like Iowa in this one even if we only get 10K inside Carver.PREDICTION:Iowa - 66Ohio State - 62