This whole thing about Iran is just ridiculous and doesn’t stand up to any scrutiny. Intelligence agencies told lies about Iraq WMD. Now, they didn’t even know if the embassy attack in Libya was a terrorist attack or protesters. But Biden has no problems with imposing crippling sanctions on Iran. Ryan is even more gung-ho about going to war. And nobody questions what if the intelligence about Iran is wrong?

There were military coups in Turkey in 1960, 1971 and 1980. An event in 1997 described as the first post-modern coup, the military memorandum. And in 2003 a failed military coup. The trial of some of those in the 2003 attempt has just finished in Turkey. So the Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan must already be aware that the second victim of a Syrian Turkish war is likely to be his civilian regime. And this is how the strange affair of the Syrian jet should be read (in my opinion).

First the Turkish and Syrian army are already exchanging shells across their border. Where a Turkish Syrian war would start with an invasion by the Turkish army. Instead the centre of activity switches to Ankara.

Second, this involves Russia directly in the dispute. And allows Erdogan to create a space in which the Turkish press can speculate on a war that involves Iran, Russia and China. Which is likely to considerably cool War Fervour among the ruling elite.

Third this was in fact the aim of the entire exercise. An offensive move which acts as a cover for a retreat. I have no doubt that both Putin and Obama knew of this event beforehand. It suits both that no Turkish-Syrian take war take place at this time …