Has the Republican 'big tent' disappeared?

This should have been the year of the Rockefeller Republican. Poll after poll show that the economy and jobs are the top issues of the election and that President Obama is vulnerable for re-election, especially among middle-of-the-road voters.

Instead, it became the primary of “anybody but Romney,” and the easiest way to beat Mitt Romney is to run to the far right of the political spectrum.

The GOP 'tent' is looking a lot smaller these days.

It is now plausible that Rick Santorum could win the GOP nomination. It’s still a stretch, but the poll numbers in Michigan are game changers. The longer this race drags on, the worse it is for Romney as voters and big donors begin to rethink Romney’s frontrunner status.

The problem for Republicans is that whoever emerges as the GOP nominee will have a difficult time appealing to moderate Republicans, let alone independents after this race to the right.

The national conversation on birth control might have helped Santorum, but it didn’t help the Republican Party. Santorum polls best among tea partyers and evangelical Christians — people who always vote Republican.

Social issues don’t play well with moderates, who overwhelmingly support basic birth control and take issue with Santorum’s statements such as “Respect for stay-at-home mothers has been poisoned by a toxic combination of the village elders’ war on the traditional family and radical feminism’s misogynist crusade to make working women outside the home the only marker of social value and self-respect.”

Younger voters — even among the GOP — go a step further and show strong support for gay unions. Young conservatives tend to have a libertarian view of social issues: The government should stay out of people’s personal lives whether it’s about guns, pills or relationships.

Even Santorum seemed to realize this. He has purposefully tried to talk manufacturing in Michigan, which goes to the polls Feb. 28. His aides even did interviews with The New York Times, which ran an article Monday with the headline “In Michigan race, Santorum shifts to talk of jobs.”

In many ways, Romney was the dream candidate for moderates. He has the business background and was governor of a liberal state. While personally conservative on social issues, he has a history of not making it a political issue. And parts of his health care reform should have been a platform to promote, not hide from.

But even if he gets the nod, he will have the same problem John McCain had in 2008: He’s said so many things — he even felt the need to say he is “severely conservative” at the recent Conservative Political Action Conference — that no one knows what he stands for anymore.

Recall how “Maverick McCain” morphed into “muddled McCain” on the campaign trail in an effort to lure the GOP base. Romney might be in worse shape.

The same can be said for Newt Gingrich. He would seemingly appeal to middle-of-the-road voters who long for the halcyon days of the 1990s. Except Gingrich, too, is trying to distance himself from the past. His claims that he’s the “true conservative” only further muddy the waters on who the real Gingrich is in 2012.

Ron Paul’s liberty message has widespread appeal, but his campaign to end five federal agencies and do away with the Federal Reserve are fairly sweeping changes for moderates.

Watching this primary race take shape is like watching the GOP tent get smaller and smaller.

Heather Long

Perhaps the lowest point for Republicans wasn’t even a statement by the candidates, but what happened at a debate. In September, the audience booed an Iraq veteran who said he was gay and asked the candidates about their stance on gays in the military.

What happened to Ronald Reagan’s big tent that could supposedly house many views?

As Santorum has surged, so have donations to the Democratic Party and Obama’s re-election campaign. It’s an effect eerily similar to how Hillary Clinton galvanized the right.

This year should have been an easy GOP victory. Instead, Obama’s approval ratings have been climbing lately. In a New York Times/CBS poll this week, he hit 50 percent approval for the first time since 2010 (other than just after Osama bin Laden’s death). And recent polls show Obama leading Santorum or Romney by 6 to 8 points.

There’s still a long way to go to November, but the GOP has to get back on message about the economy and jobs. Most of all, Republicans need to pitch a lot bigger tent or risk the prospect of defeat this year and a long struggle to rebuild a reputation that appeals to America’s middle — and I don’t just mean the middle of the country.
Heather Long is deputy editorial page editor. 255-8104 or hlong@patriot-news.com.