Documents & Reports

China quarterly update, April 2012 (English)

Abstract

The Chinese economy is in the midst of a gradual slowdown. A weaker global economic environment and tighter domestic policies combined to slow gross domestic product (GDP) growth from 10.4 percent in 2010 to 9.2 percent in 2011. Slow growth in the Euro...
See More +The Chinese economy is in the midst of a gradual slowdown. A weaker global economic environment and tighter domestic policies combined to slow gross domestic product (GDP) growth from 10.4 percent in 2010 to 9.2 percent in 2011. Slow growth in the Euro area and sluggish recovery in the US limited the contribution of net exports, as exports decelerated more rapidly than imports. Tighter domestic policy conditions dampened investment particularly in infrastructure and real estate. In contrast, consumption growth remained robust as consumer confidence was sustained and household income continued to grow rapidly. The current account surplus is projected to increase slightly to 3 percent of GDP in 2012 and 3.3 percent in 2013. Terms of trade improvements offset an initially lower trade balance driven by export weakness and import robustness. With trade volumes recovering in 2013 and the terms of trade improving further, the surplus will also expand in 2013. Despite continued net capital inflows, foreign exchange reserves will accumulate more slowly. The longer-term outlook will depend on how China manages key structural challenges. As the traditional engines of growth weaken, GDP growth should gradually slow. The growth benefits of urbanization and industrialization are expected to hit diminishing returns. China will also see major demographic change over time, with old-age dependency rising and the labor force shrinking soon. Total factor productivity growth would likely soften as efficiency gains from first-generation reforms lessen and technology gaps with high-income economies narrow. In addition, the welcome efforts to rebalance the economy are expected to not only alter the pattern of growth, but also bring slower, though higher-quality, headline growth.
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