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Re: Please tell me the Reds aren't keeping Aroldis at closer...

Arredondo 61 IP with a 2.95 ERA, but his K/9 of 9.1, BB/9 of 5.0 and HR/9 of 1.0 don't add-up to a repeat. Something closer to 4.00 is more likely.

Simon - A career fringe guy in his 30s who put up a 2.66 ERA in 61 IP. Expecting a repeat is foolhardy IMO.

Ondrusek went 54.1 IP with an ERA of 3.46. His K/9 of 6.4 with a BB/9 of 5.1 and a HR/9 of 1.3 suggests something closer to 6.00.

Broxton 22.1P with an ERA of 2.82 is now a free agent.

I think counting on the emegence of Hoover and a bigger role for Lecure to fill-in for Chapman is a bit short sighted. If those guys work out, they'll likely replace the guys who had abnormally good seasons and are likely to blow-up. I'm coming around more and more to moving Chapman into the rotation with Leake as the needed depth in long relief, but doing so does require bringing in at least one pretty strong and proven reliever to shoulder some of the late inning load. I'd give Hovver a shot closing, but this looks like a pen that may have its soft underbelly exposed in 2013. Adding a starter to the rotation who is a question mark as far as going deep into games won't help. Get somebody decent (maybe 2 guys) and make the move, but if they simply move Chapman and try to fill the pen from within, I think it will be the team's undoing. Its not just because of Chapman, but a lot of this supposed depth that has everyone so convinced looks like a good bet to turn to dreck in 2013. Its not just Chapman's 70 or so innings that will need to be replaced, but there are nearly 200 other innings at risk as well. I think adding an arm is mandatory before making any move of Chapman to the rotation.

Along those lines, I think they should seriously consider Cingrani starting next season in the Reds pen. Somebody has to replace all those innings and taking more effective innings out of the pen by moving Chapman to the rotation simply exacerbates the problem IMO.

You could have said the same thing for Arredondo last year (8.15 K/9, 5.26 BB/9) when he put up a 3.26 ERA. Yet his ERA improved this year.

You could have said the same thing for Ondrusek each of the past two seasons, yet his ERA has gone from 3.68 to 3.23 to 3.46. All three seasons Ondrusek has out-performed his ERA estimators. One has to wonder if there's a possibility there are reasons for that.

I don't know what to expect out of Simon, but while his HR/FB ratio is part of the reason for the success, he added almost a full strikeout per inning this year and nearly doubled his GB/FB ratio. While I don't expect a complete repeat of this year's success, if he continues those rates, he'll have another very good year. Any reliever with a 7.5 K/9 and over 2-1 GB/FB rate is going to be pretty successful, typically.

"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

Re: Please tell me the Reds aren't keeping Aroldis at closer...

Originally Posted by Brutus

You could have said the same thing for Arredondo last year (8.15 K/9, 5.26 BB/9) when he put up a 3.26 ERA. Yet his ERA improved this year.

You could have said the same thing for Ondrusek each of the past two seasons, yet his ERA has gone from 3.68 to 3.23 to 3.46. All three seasons Ondrusek has out-performed his ERA estimators. One has to wonder if there's a possibility there are reasons for that.

I don't know what to expect out of Simon, but while his HR/FB ratio is part of the reason for the success, he added almost a full strikeout per inning this year and nearly doubled his GB/FB ratio. While I don't expect a complete repeat of this year's success, if he continues those rates, he'll have another very good year. Any reliever with a 7.5 K/9 and over 2-1 GB/FB rate is going to be pretty successful, typically.

Agreed, but now that we've seen 2 seasons of crummy components from Ondrusek and Arredondo I'd just as soon move on before it turns into a gaping hole. I hope Simon does become a good reliever, but last year was his age 31 season and it was the first time he's been anything nore thna a AAAA pitcher. I don't count on him for anything at all.

Somebody earlier said that they think you should blow-up and rebuild the pen every year. With Hoover and Lecure looking pretty decent, the Reds have an oppostunity to replace the question marks, but that means they aren't the replacements for Chapman. The team needs a couple of arms from the outside or one good one and they need to make the same move with Cingrani now that they did with Chapman a couple of years ago,

As far as depth goes, I think the team should non-tender Bray and Ondrusek, deal Arredondo, assume that Masset will spend the year on the DL and that Simon will revert to his Baltimore form. Marshall, Hoover, Lecure form a decent middle of the pen, but they need a couple more role players and a hammer IMO. With Chapman as the hammer, they could still be pretty good. I think Leake and Cingrani should be the role players and with Chapman in the rotation, a hammer still needs brought in. It may not be a Chapman elite level hammer, but a clear late inning presence needs to be added if Chapman s removed.

"All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

Re: Please tell me the Reds aren't keeping Aroldis at closer...

Originally Posted by mth123

Agreed, but now that we've seen 2 seasons of crummy components from Ondrusek and Arredondo I'd just as soon move on before it turns into a gaping hole. I hope Simon does become a good reliever, but last year was his age 31 season and it was the first time he's been anything nore thna a AAAA pitcher. I don't count on him for anything at all.

Somebody earlier said that they think you should blow-up and rebuild the pen every year. With Hoover and Lecure looking pretty decent, the Reds have an oppostunity to replace the question marks, but that means they aren't the replacements for Chapman. The team needs a couple of arms from the outside or one good one and they need to make the same move with Cingrani now that they did with Chapman a couple of years ago,

As far as depth goes, I think the team should non-tender Bray and Ondrusek, deal Arredondo, assume that Masset will spend the year on the DL and that Simon will revert to his Baltimore form. Marshall, Hoover, Lecure form a decent middle of the pen, but they need a couple more role players and a hammer IMO. With Chapman as the hammer, they could still be pretty good. I think Leake and Cingrani should be the role players and with Chapman in the rotation, a hammer still needs brought in. It may not be a Chapman elite level hammer, but a clear late inning presence needs to be added if Chapman s removed.

I completely agree about those three, I wouldn't depend on them for next season. But they should be easy to replace. They will be plenty of decent enough guys coming out of spring training who can be picked off of waivers.

Plus, the Reds have a few young arms that could fill the middle releif innings. All it takes to be a decent middle reliever is a live fastball and the ability to throw strikes. I'm also pretty confident that one of Broxton and Madsen will be back.

Re: Please tell me the Reds aren't keeping Aroldis at closer...

Originally Posted by 757690

I completely agree about those three, I wouldn't depend on them for next season. But they should be easy to replace. They will be plenty of decent enough guys coming out of spring training who can be picked off of waivers.

Plus, the Reds have a few young arms that could fill the middle releif innings. All it takes to be a decent middle reliever is a live fastball and the ability to throw strikes. I'm also pretty confident that one of Broxton and Madsen will be back.

If Broxton comes back, that's probably enough. I don't expect Madson to be much until August or so. I'd just as soon let somebody else pay him to rehab into May and suffer through "just back from TJ" subpar performance for a couple of months. He may be pretty good by August or September, but that will be too late for the Reds IMO. He'd be a good choice to pick-up at the deadline. I'd expect Madson's 2013 to look a lot like Joe Nathan's 2011 and that isn't good enough IMO

Re: Please tell me the Reds aren't keeping Aroldis at closer...

But they should be easy to replace. They will be plenty of decent enough guys coming out of spring training who can be picked off of waivers.

Famous last words.

Can I ask: what are people expecting from Chapman as a starter next year?

The widow is gathering nettles for her children's dinner; a perfumed seigneur, delicately lounging in the Oeil de Boeuf, hath an alchemy whereby he will extract the third nettle and call it rent. ~ Carlyle

Re: Please tell me the Reds aren't keeping Aroldis at closer...

I know watching players and pitchers don't mean anything around here, it's a debate about stats.

But I don't have confidence in the 2012 Broxton as a closer. Just seemed too hittable. Now, Brox was still coming off injury - by next year he may be all the way back - but with your bullpen I'd rather have Hoover close.

Mth's bullpen needs another good late inning reliever IMO.

Brox, Hoover, Marshall, and X for the late innings.

Lecure, Leake, and Cingrani for long and middle innings.

If X is somebody solid who can close, I'm ok with it.

Of course, Masset is signed for next year so he may be in the mix if healthy enough.

In any event, my guess is Simon will be back, whether he is on our lists or not.

Re: Please tell me the Reds aren't keeping Aroldis at closer...

Originally Posted by Kc61

I know watching players and pitchers don't mean anything around here, it's a debate about stats.

But I don't have confidence in the 2012 Broxton as a closer. Just seemed too hittable. Now, Brox was still coming off injury - by next year he may be all the way back - but with your bullpen I'd rather have Hoover close.

Mth's bullpen needs another good late inning reliever IMO.

Brox, Hoover, Marshall, and X for the late innings.

Lecure, Leake, and Cingrani for long and middle innings.

If X is somebody solid who can close, I'm ok with it.

Of course, Masset is signed for next year so he may be in the mix if healthy enough.

In any event, my guess is Simon will be back, whether he is on our lists or not.

That's as good a bullpen as there is in baseball, definitely good enough to contend. There's a good chance someone will raise up to be the closer. If not, the Reds have the resources to get one mid season. As Brutus pointed out, many contending teams have entered the season without a defined closer, and found one at some point in the season.

Re: Please tell me the Reds aren't keeping Aroldis at closer...

Originally Posted by Rojo

Famous last words.

Can I ask: what are people expecting from Chapman as a starter next year?

Good question. I'm not expecting Randy Johnson. Hopeing for better than Leake but wouldn't be surprised with Volquez 2011. It deserves a shot though. If I had better expectations for Leake and wasn't as concenred with adding rotation depth, I'd probably be against the move.

"All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

Re: Please tell me the Reds aren't keeping Aroldis at closer...

Somebody earlier said that they think you should blow-up and rebuild the pen every year.

Not sure if it was this thread, but I've said it before. Assuming no Chapman move, you go into 2013 with Chapman, Marshall, Hoover and LeCure written in pen, everyone else -- pencil.

Move Chapman and you're left with three hard names for the pen (pen-pen?) and at the risk of sounding metaphysical, removing the closer throws those three into questionable territory.

Sounds like Walt would like to make this move. But it also sounds like he'd like to get the closer first (Huston Street?). That's smart.

But I suspect that if Walt actually pays for said closer -- in players or cash -- we'll get a hue and cry from those on this thread who claim they don't give short-shrift to the pen.

The widow is gathering nettles for her children's dinner; a perfumed seigneur, delicately lounging in the Oeil de Boeuf, hath an alchemy whereby he will extract the third nettle and call it rent. ~ Carlyle

Re: Please tell me the Reds aren't keeping Aroldis at closer...

Originally Posted by Raisor

If Walt can't build a good to great bullpen without Chapman then the Reds are in trouble.

The issue may be money. If the Reds simply bring back the guys they still control, let the free agents walk and non-tender Bray, Ondrusek and Valdez, they are still over $90 Million. If they spend what little is left to replace Chapman in the pen, I don't see much left to spend on the OF. Leaving Chapman to close may be necessary to addess LF and CF.

"All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

Re: Please tell me the Reds aren't keeping Aroldis at closer...

. I would rather use time and energy getting more of a sure thing, such as a Garza or Haren, and keep Chapman as insurance that games only last eight innings.

That's my preference too.
Instead of adding an ace closer, why not just add a very good starter and keep Chapman where he is?

If Broxton is not resigned and Chapman goes to the rotation, the bullpen is suddenly very shallow.. I think at bare minumum, the Reds need to resign/add two relievers to consider moving Chapman to the rotation. Maybe a healthy Masset is one of those guys, but I wouldn't count on it.

Thank you Walt and Bob for bringing winning baseball back to Cincy

Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

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