George W Bush has the wind in his sails, and seen close to he looks as if he knows it. Striding across the midwest battleground in the past two days, he has had a spring in his step, a serenity in his manner and a confidence in his voice that all say the same thing: he is aware that he stands on history's threshold. He thinks he has got it.

Mr Bush's lead in the national polls is narrow but persistent. Al Gore's campaign team can produce a detailed and almost plausible explanation of why their man will still pull it off on Tuesday by winning in the key states, but their theories are all crippled by the same devastating objection: Mr Bush is in the lead and he is not doing anything at all to throw it away.

Even the weather gods seem to be on his side as his campaign plane, Responsibility One, pulls up on the tarmac at Minneapolis after a gruelling flight from Seattle.

It has been raining all morning and the clouds are low, but now the sun breaks through, with perfect timing, to produce a mini-masterpiece of political theatre.

A college band strikes up a swaggering rendition of the theme from Mission: Impossible and the crowd who have been waiting here for nearly two hours catch the feel of the moment and shout themselves hoarse.

Chris Kavkashian says he is surprised at himself for coming out to see the Bush bandwagon roll through the "airport event" which typifies the frenzied final days of presidential campaigning.

"I'll tell you why I'm here in one word," he says. "Integrity. That man has it. Gore hasn't. He and Clinton, they just do things any way they want to."

Words like integrity, responsibility and character have been scattered across the speeches of Republican politicians throughout this presidential campaign. They are the euphemisms the party has settled on to raise the Clinton question without seeming negative, and without reminding middle-of-the-road voters about the Republican fanatics whose sole public project for the past eight years has been to drive the Democratic president from office.

The issue is always somewhere in the speeches, though it is never allowed to dominate or get out of control. Yet Mr Kavkashian's focus seems typical of the crowd waiting for Mr Bush. Only one in about a dozen people interviewed at random chooses taxes as the most important reason for supporting Bush in the election. The rest, in one way or another, all choose character.

"All the shenanigans of the the last eight years embarrassed me personally as an American," says Barbara Martin.

"I think Bush would put integrity back in the White House."

"He's a bit of personality. He's the kind of guy you'd like to hang out with," says Chuck McShane. "I'd have preferred John McCain. If McCain had run, this election wouldn't have been close, even in Minnesota. But half a loaf is better than no bread."

When he reaches the stage, Mr Bush does not say much about character. He doesn't need to. It would make him look too mean. His message, emblazoned in huge yellow letters on a blue banner behind him, is "Bringing America Together".

He concentrates on his tax cut plans, and he spends much of his time attacking Mr Gore as a big spender.

"You are looking at 285 federal programmes that my opponent promises to create or expand," he says as aides pull aside a curtain to reveal a huge list headed "Gore Proposes More Big Government".

Gore's promises add up to "the largest expansion of government in 35 years", he says. He would go on a "$2 trillion spending spree".

By this stage in the campaign the messages have been reduced to the barest of essentials. "He trusts government. I trust you," Mr Bush repeats, echoing Ronald Reagan 20 years ago. But where Reagan regularly trashed the whole idea of government, Mr Bush is more careful. "We believe in government that knows its limits, but shows its heart."

But where Mr Bush fears to tread, others rush in. Long before he arrives, and before most of the media check in to hear what he says, the Republican candidate for one of Minnesota's congressional seats shows fewer scruples.

Mark Kennedy tells the crowd a story. Bill Clinton is desperate to secure his presidential legacy, he says. He can't sleep. As Clinton writhes, George Washington appears to him in a dream. What should I do to secure my legacy, Clinton asks. "Always tell the truth. Never tell a lie," Washington tells him. The crowd roars.

The next night Clinton dreams again. This time Thomas Jefferson appears to him. Clinton asks about his legacy. Jefferson answers quickly: "Cut taxes and give government back to the people." They roar again.

Now Clinton has a third dream. This time it is Abraham Lincoln's turn to be asked the question. What should Clinton do to assure his legacy? Lincoln thinks for a long time, and then speaks. "Go to the theatre," he says.

A crowd who would undoubtedly say without a moment's hesitation that they represent mainstream American values cheer with delight at the thought that Bill Clinton might be shot dead.

It is a mark of Mr Bush's confidence that in the campaign's final days he should be in Minnesota, an idiosyncratic but generally Democratic state which has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1972.

But this is the state that elected the wrestler Jesse Ventura, an independent, as governor two years ago, and these are counter-intuitive times in American politics. A poll this week showed Mr Gore still ahead in Minnesota, but only by 44% to 41%.

The Green candidate, Ralph Nader, whose running mate Winona LaDuke lives in Minnesota, is strengthening his challenge and has risen in the polls to 8%. Mr Nader could hand Minnesota to Mr Bush.

On the stump yesterday

George W Bush

Four midwest battleground states in a single day, starting in Des Moines, Iowa. Flew to St Charles, Missouri for a late morning Victory 2000 rally. Then to Chicago, Illinois, where he spoke at DuPage College, in the congressional district represented by House judiciary committee chairman Henry Hyde. Ended with a rally at Wisconsin State Fair Park outside Milwaukee.

Al Gore

A long day in four widely scattered swing states. Began in Scranton, Pennsylvania with a speech on "Big Choices", rallied in central Chicago, Illinois, then flew 1,500 miles for a rally with Hispanic-American voters in Las Cruces, New Mexico, before flying to a 1am rally in Kansas City, Missouri