Operation: Abominable Snowman

School Forecast for:
Friday January 5th
Last Updated: 9PM Thursday January 4, 2018
Delay No School Early Dismissal
70% 20%
0%

The Forecast
Closings as of 8AM Friday:

---------

9PM Thursday

Ulster County picked up 3 to 6 inches of snow today with about three in the immediate Kingston area. Now that the storm has departed, cold air will filter in behind it. Based on the 24-hour temperature changes to our west, we can expect temperatures in the Mid-Hudson Valley to fall into the 0 to 5 degree range overnight and rise to the 10 to 15 degree range tomorrow. With the wind factored in, it will likely feel up to 15 degrees colder than the actual temperatures. In the higher terrain outside of the immediate Hudson Valley (toward the Catskills), it will be at least 10 degrees colder than everything that was just described for the Hudson Valley. Temperatures on Saturday will likely be 5 to 10 degrees colder than Friday.

Tonight's situation most parallels the January 7, 2014 storm. During that event Ulster county picked up less than an inch of snow leading up to 12am. Then cold air filtered in producing temperatures nearly identical to our current ones. The ultimate result was that Kingston, Saugerties, Highland, New Paltz, Wallkill, Marlboro, and Onteora issued delayed openings while Ellenville and Rondout closed. While both snow and cold were factors, the school impacts were primarily related to the temperatures in most districts. This is the only such event documented in the 13-year-old Kingstonsnows database, but it is the one that we are going to base tonight's probabilities on…. for better or for worse. Regardless of what tomorrow brings, make sure you bundle up and watch out for slick spots

The next storm system looks to be Monday into Tuesday. At this time, another light to moderate snowfall appears likely. We'll hold off until tomorrow to begin discussing this one.

What about this cold?!

The average temperature in Poughkeepsie last month was 27.8 degrees. This is 3.3 degrees below normal, and is colder than 75% of Decembers on record. It was the coldest December since 2006. The real story has been the frigid temperatures of the past week. Since Christmas Day the average temperature has only been 13.5 degrees. This is by far the coldest it has been between Christmas and New Years since records began in 1949, but in context of the entire winter, it does not even rank in the top 100 coldest 7-day stretches on record. The cold will continue for about another week with the extended forecast suggesting a moderation toward normal or above normal temperatures by the end of next week, and continuing into the second half of January.

The reason for the cold is that the bubble of arctic air that is traditionally located over the north pole has migrated southward. It is not uncommon for this to happen. Sometimes this bubble of cold air shifts over Asia, other times it shifts over North America. While these cold air shifts may make local weather unbearable, the bigger picture is that the global as a whole continues to run a fever with most areas warmer than normal. Global temperatures have been steadily increasing since the early 1900s, and 2017 will rank as either the 2nd or 3rd warmest year in modern human history when all the data is compiled. The warmest year on record was 2016.

Image caption: The blue colors over North America (top left) represent today's below average temperatures, the reds across the rest of the globe represent above normal temperatures. Click image for larger and clearer version.

Day (Date) Delay Cancellation Early Dismissal
Monday (8) Very Low
Low Medium
Tuesday (9) High
Medium
Very Low
Wednesday (10) Very Low Very Low Very Low
Thursday (11) Very Low Very Low Very Low
Friday (12) Very Low
Very Low
Very Low