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Scarborough subway now the subject of a power play: James

Out of the murky world of transit planning in Toronto, a number of clear images and truths emerge. The first is this: The Bloor-Danforth Subway will extend up to the Scarborough Town Centre. And it should happen in about a decade.

The LRT planned and approved along that RT route from Kennedy subway station to McCowan and Highway 401 is dead. The current Scarborough RT will be replaced by a subway extension. The only question is the alignment — now the subject of a political power play worthy of TIFF treatment.

Meanwhile, the Sheppard LRT from Don Mills Rd., to McCowan or Markham Rd. or Morningside or into the Town Centre is still alive — but even that could still be changed into a subway, considering the crazy politics surrounding this issue.

Setting aside the Sheppard line to a future debate, focus is now on what we call the RT Subway, the plan to replace the aging RT, near the end of its useful life. No politician or political party depending on votes in Scarborough will vote for an LRT along that route. The very concept is toxic. And for that you can thank or blame Mayor Rob Ford.

For better of worse, the Toronto mayor has ruined the image of light rail transit — without even trying to understand its virtues or effectiveness along specific routes. Consequently, to even suggest light rail as a RT replacement is political suicide.

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In fact, the entire LRT concept is on trial. While it does appear that the Eglinton Crosstown LRT (from Black Creek Dr. to Kennedy Rd.) is safe from further political interference (tunneling has begun), future use of this technology across Toronto depends on its success along Eglinton.

Scarborough is a special case. The eastern suburb of Toronto has historical grievances and self-esteem issues — think “Scarberia.” And the majority of its residents are convinced that anything short of a heavy rail “subway” — above or below ground — is a slap in the face.

Mayor Ford’s greatest political achievement is his mining of these grievances to his political advantage. “Subways, subways, subways. Scarborough, Scarborough, Scarborough” is now a Rob Ford brand. Anyone looking to topple him in the 2014 mayoral elections must deal with that reality. And that translates into an RT subway, for sure.

Now, the consequences of such a decision may be injurious to the transportation network, make connections more difficult for the rest of Scarborough, and create operational problems. But, who is able to argue such points in this politicized and conspiratorial environment?

Other tributaries that flow from this reality:

The ruling provincial Liberals promised in the recent by-elections to replace the RT with a subway — but for only $1.4 billion. Can’t be done. The Liberals can’t flip flop on this one. So, Transportation Minister Glen Murray makes up his own alignment and costing and declares it viable, ignoring TTC concerns.

Yes, it’s two stops instead of up to five. It doesn’t go up to Sheppard. It creates many other issues. But, it narrowly fulfills the promise and allows the Liberals to blame others if it doesn’t work out.

The provincial opposition parties are in a similar fix. Neither the NDP nor the Conservatives have promised specific funding for a line, along any alignment — but, of course, they are opposed to the Liberal plan.

The Conservative federal government, politically aligned with Mayor Rob Ford, lurks in the shadows, waiting to see how best to prop up the mayor’s position without committing any money.

And Ford just blusters away — historically declining to fund his subway visions and laughing himself silly as his political enemies deal with the reality that, on this issue, the mayor is on the side of the Scarborough angels.

Strangely, TTC chair Karen Stintz is a strident voice of dissent: Doesn’t work, not enough stops, doesn’t mesh with city council’s July vote to run it up McCowan Rd. to Sheppard, she says. And if the province doesn’t back down, the default position is the existing plan for an LRT.

Stintz is considering a run for mayor. The LRT plan clearly won’t fly. So, is she so committed to the TTC vision of a better alignment to risk blowing the whole thing? Or is she betting that all parties are so invested in getting a subway in that corridor that she can win them over to the best option?

That’s the type of play one expects from a leader intent on the best solutions for his or her city. It may be too pure and noble a motive to expect in this partisan environment.

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