Now this may sound a bit harsh, but it's not meant to. You couldn't possibly be more wrong about shorts and stocks. First, the big and thus "smartest" money on Wall Street holds the largest short positions. To compare the average retail investor with institutional investors in terms of market knowledge should on the surface be self evident who the smart money is.

Also, while you won't receive a disagreement from me that the "market" i.e. indices go up on average, it's a straw-man argument, and on average, stocks go DOWN, not up (even after removing pink sheet and OTC).

Thanks for reading and taking the time to comment. Yes, I can certainly understand how it may appear counter-intuitive to think of short sellers as the smart money.

That said, as stated, they are the smart money, not the perfect, or infallible, but the smart money. Understanding the distinction is important in understanding investing, and the entire market for that matter.

J.C. Penney Is Last Year's Fashion This Earnings Season [View article]

Hi Jack,

Thanks for reading and sharing your thoughts.

I have visited JCP recently as part of my research. That's great that it's opening stores (it should be), but the only thing keeping the closure rate as low as it is, is the leases holding the company at losing locations.

Look, I understand many don't want to read anything but a refilling of the punch bowl, and it's sad too, because it costs retailer investors a lot of money.

I couldn't care less which way the stock moves and don't have an axe to grind with JCP. In fact, I wrote several bullish pieces in the last year. But I call them like I see em' and all the hope in the world doesn't change the fact the company is losing money and many never gain profitability again.

"when there are thousands of others that seem just like you blasting out endless short term calls"... That's a good point and one I wish more would think about.

I normally point out the time frame, but as a rule, unless I state otherwise, my articles are written for the investor, not the trader.

You're right, there is a lot of opinion out there and anyone who states it's easy to figure out who to take seriously and who to dismiss is welcome to explain to me why it's easy for them. It's a lot of work, but needed if you're going to follow more than one company (can't do all the work yourself, unless you're full time).

That said, some things to consider:

- How long have they been at it?

- Are they investors who also write, or writers that may (or may not even) invest

- Randomly pick a few articles going back at least a year and see what the performance would be like based on your own investment objectives. Don't cherry pick though, or your results have a greater chance of being skewed.

- Ignore your own biases and ask if the opinion makes sense, and is unique. We all know Cisco is a great company, but it doesn't mean the stock will go up. i.e. "who's left to buy to create buying pressure?"

That's a good question and one I ask myself often. In most cases, analysts are not allowed to have a position to avoid personal bias. If you read my pieces at http://bit.ly/1AYhv6r you will quickly see I've been bullish on MSFT for quite some time.

That said, i sit in front of monitors all day so I have the luxury of entering and exiting frequently. As stated in my disclosure, I don't have a position in any ticker mentioned.

Hopefully, my track record speaks for itself and that will motivate you to learn more about my calls, but regardless, I thank you all the same for reading and taking the time to post your thoughts. Have a great weekend

Groupon Is Reporting Earnings, But It's Not A Bargain Yet [View article]

Thanks for reading and sharing your thoughts.

Best of luck to you. It's simple math really at its core. If the options are pricing in X move and it moves X + anything, selling is a losing proposition. "expensive" is relative.

And yes, time decay is fully factored in. I suggest a great book by Scott Nations titled "Options math for traders" if you want to learn how to calculate expected price moves in a given amount of time. It's a great primer before you move into the real heavy lifting.