New Latino Vote Polling Released in Virginia

In Virginia and at the national level, Latino and new citizen voters are changing politics. With immigration at the top of the list of issues these voters want addressed, it’s no surprise that Republican candidates who have embraced hardline positions – including Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney and Senate nominee George Allen — are faring poorly with Virginia Latinos. By contrast, the embrace of immigrants and immigration reform by both President Barack Obama and Senate candidate Tim Kaine have played a key role in Latino support for Democrats in presidential, Senate and House races.

Yesterday, Latino Decisions for America’s Voice released brand-new polling on the Latino vote in Virginia. Here’s a summary:

48%

The percentage of Virginia Latino voters who rank immigration as a top issue that Congress and the President should address (this is HIGHER than Virginia Latino voters who rank jobs/the economy as their most important priority, at 47%)

86%

Percentage of Virginia Latino voters who say that immigration as a topic is important to their voting decision

Percentage of Virginia Latino voters who say that Mitt Romney’s support of self-deportationand harsh anti-immigrant laws makes them less enthusiastic about Romney

66%

Percentage of Virginia Latino voters who say they know someone who is an undocumented immigrant

54%

Percentage of Virginia Latino voters who say they know a DREAMer

93%

Percentage of Virginia Latino voters who say they are enthusiastic about voting in November

What does this mean for the November election?

Professor Michael McDonald, Associate Professor at George Mason University, said: “Immigration is a personal issue that affects Latinos’ attitudes toward candidates even if they don’t explicitly name immigration as one of the most important issues facing the country. The new poll shows the importance of the new deferred action policy to Latino voters in Virginia–and especially undecided voters. With undecided voters expressing more enthusiasm for Obama after hearing about his deferred action policy and less enthusiasm for Romney after hearing about his plans to halt the program upon taking office, it’s clear that opposing this policy is a net negative for candidates who want to appeal to the Latino vote.”

Matt Barreto, principal at Latino Decisions and an assistant professor at the University of Washington, said: “President Obama’s decision in June to grant deferred action to DREAMers marked a ‘turning point’ among Latino voters around the country, making them significantly more enthusiastic about voting in November-and national polling results understate the level of enthusiasm among Latino voters in battleground states like Virginia, who are more engaged than Latinos in less-contested states like California and Texas. The growing population of Latino voters in Virginia is both more enthusiastic about the election than most Latinos, and more likely to decide the outcome of the very close presidential and Senate races here.”

According to Vanessa Cardenas, Executive Director of Progress 2050 Action at the Center for American Progress Action Fund: “The youth and diversity of Virginia’s Latino community distinguishes it from many other Latino communities around the country, and the immigrant experience is especially close to Latinos’ hearts here. In the last few years, Latinos witnessed a very ugly debate around anti-immigrant ordinances in Prince William County that caused many Latinos to leave the county, devastating local business. This has taught Latino voters here that immigration and the economy are not only fundamental issues for their community, but that part of fixing the economy is welcoming immigrants.”

Alfonso Lopez, a delegate in the Virginia House of Delegates, added that “Since 2000, Latino voter participation in the Commonwealth of Virginia has gone up between 1 and 3 percent every election cycle. But the legislation that the House of Delegates has put forward has been decidedly anti-immigrant. Legislators who think they can succeed politically by demonizing the immigrant community have proposed bills that would turn public schools into immigration enforcers, keep valedictorians out of public colleges, and deter victims from reporting crimes. In the upcoming session, the legislature will consider an Arizona-style bill to require immigrants to carry ID with them at all times-and the small minority of pro-immigrant and Democratic legislators will have more difficulty stopping it than we had in the past. These numbers are incredibly heartening, because demographic shifts are coming to Virginia, and will wipe out the effects of the short-sighted anti-immigrant politicking we see now.”

Frank Sharry, executive director of America’s Voice, said, “While Virginia isn’t traditionally a state where Latino voters have held a lot of sway, with this year’s extremely tight race in both the Presidential and Senate contests, and a rapidly growing number of Latino voters in the northern Virginia region, these voters are poised to play a decisive role in both races. Despite Govenor Romney’s surge in national polls in recent weeks, his numbers with Latino voters are at a dismal 22 percent. For Virginia’s Latino voters, two-thirds of whom report knowing an undocumented immigrant, this issue is personal, and Romney’s far right position endorsing ‘self-deportation’ could end up losing him this battleground state.”