Japan GDP

Japan: Economic growth decelerates further in Q3

November 14, 2013

Third quarter national accounts data proved to be less upbeat than in the previous two quarters. In the third quarter, GDP rose 1.9% over the previous quarter in seasonally adjusted annualized terms (SAAR), which marks a deceleration over the 3.8% increase recorded in the previous quarter. The print, however, represents the fourth consecutive expansion in the country's output and slightly overshot the 1.7% rise that market analysts had expected. On an annual basis, economic activity increased 2.7% in the third quarter (Q2: +1.1% year-on-year).

The deceleration in Q3 reflects a deterioration in the external sector, whereas domestic demand gained some traction. Private consumption slowed to a 0.4% increase in the third quarter (Q2: +2.3% quarter-on-quarter SAAR), while government spending decelerated to a 1.1% rise (Q2: +3.1% qoq SAAR). Private non-residential investment registered a 0.7% increase, which was less than the 4.4% expansion observed in Q2. That said, GDP largely benefited from a positive shift in inventories.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) expects the economy to expand between 2.6% and 3.0% in the fiscal year ending in March 2014. In the following fiscal year, the BoJ sees GDP growing between 0.9% and 1.5%. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see GDP expanding 1.9% in 2013, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month's projection. In 2014, the panel sees the economy growing 1.7%, which is unchanged from last month's estimate.

Author:,

Sample Report

Looking for forecasts related to GDP in Japan? Download a sample report now.

In December, the core consumer price index stayed flat compared to the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms, contrasting a 0.1% rise in November.
Core inflation remained steady at November’s 0.9% in December, which represented the joint-highest reading since March 2015.