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Thursday, December 13, 2012

Three Years of Josh Hamilton

That’s what people wanted. They didn’t want a long deal.
Those are always anchors to the teams. Sign everybody for short years, even if
it’s for a bit more money a year. What were the Angels thinking? Hamilton won’t
be worth that much money in five years.

I’m guessing that the Angels were thinking, “Now we actually
have Hamilton”

People always talk about “bad contracts.” Those last few
years of a long-term deal, the teams are always overpaying the player. Maybe.
But, overpaying is overrated. Let’s look at some recent bad contracts. How
about Barry Zito? Terrible contract. People said that at the time. People have
said it for a long time. And, Zito probably is overpaid. The Giants overpaid
Zito as he led them to their second World Series championship in three years.
Where’s the problem? Would they have been better off without Zito on the team?
Not sure I you can say they would. Why was the contract so bad?

What about the worst contract in the history of sports? The
Alex Rodriguez extension? ARod is tremendously overpaid. Can’t really deny
that. But, let’s say the Yankees were smarter than they were, and signed him
for a shorter deal. What if their deal with him ended after last season? What
would the Yankees do differently now? If he were healthy, wouldn’t ARod be the
best third base option available? He’d be at least as good as Kevin Youkilis,
right? Really, wouldn’t the Yankees have been smart to sign ARod to an
extension last season just to make sure they didn’t have to settle for Youk or
Mark Reynolds? With their long contract, don’t the Yankees avoid that problem?

I know, if he were healthy. But, as Carl Crawford showed us,
players can get hurt during the second year of a contract too. Heck, Ellsbury
showed us that a player can miss two seasons due to injury before they even
reach free agency. So, injuries can hit during a contract of any length. Think
Victorino won’t get hurt because it’s only a three year deal?

Speaking of Crawford, didn’t he and Gonzalez just illustrate
the problem perfectly?

In essence, the Sox just did with Adrian Gonzalez and Carl
Crawford what people want them to do with other free agents. They had them for
two years, and now don’t have to worry about overpaying them three years from
now. But, what did that do for them? Imagine that Gonzalez instead of agreeing
to big money actually accepted a two-year deal, and now signed with the
Dodgers. Now the Sox are stuck with Mike Napoli at first? They wouldn’t be
better off with Gonzalez there? Or, what about Crawford? If the Sox signed him
to a two-year deal, and now he signed as a free agent in LA. The Sox had to
replace him with Johnny Gomes? This is the sound strategy of building a team?

The people who complain about bad contracts get too worked
up in the money. It’s not like these players with bad deal become terrible.
They almost all end up being decent players at the end of their contracts.
Probably not the superstars they were when they first signed. But, at least as
good as the available replacements. It’s not like the Yanks are missing out on
Longoria because they’re stuck with the ARod contract.

It’s all about your other options.

Now, I understand payrolls. Some teams can afford to pay $25
million to an average third baseman. That’s a revenue problem that is better
saved for another day. But, some teams can. If they can, why don’t they?
Otherwise, they end up in the same mess the Sox are in. Plenty of mythical
financial flexibility…nobody to use it on. How does that help a team?

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About Me

As a Red Sox fan, I've been to many games at Fenway Park. I've sat in the first row along third base, and the last row in right field. I've sat in roof boxes, field boxes, and the right field grandstand. The best seats of them all, however, are Section 36. Dead center field. You can see the field, enjoy the Sun, and have the time of your life.