That’s what all the political pundits say — and the pollsters. Sure, these are the same pollsters who gave Hillary Clinton a 99.9 percent chance of winning the White House in 2016, but now they insist they’re right this time.

But they’re not. Not even close.

For the past few months, the mainstream media has run story after story selling the idea that Democrats are poised for big gains in the House and Senate come November. Their premise: Everybody hates President Trump (well, everybody they know, so that means everybody, right?) so Democrats just need to show up, have a pulse, and whoosh, they’ll be elected to Congress.

But here’s the thing: Just like in 2016, the pundits and pollsters are missing the forest for the trees. Yes, even diehard Republicans were skeptical about Mr. Trump as president, with many voting for him simply to keep Mrs. Clinton out of the White House. But then the reality TV star turned politician showed he could be pretty good at being president.

Here are a few facts that have changed the dynamics in the last few months: