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' oTVTE HI." " HI CI-- T'
HITT & LC'm T. -- ' Z
COLUMBIA li,. 652JI
73rd Year - N- - 289 Good Morning! It's Saturday, August 22, 1981 2 Sections - 14 Pages - 25 Cent
Insight
Mapping
the growth
of Columbia
City staff revising
land- us- e plan
By Sharon Green
MZssoorlan staff writer
Maps and charts tracing parcels of
land zoned " R-- l" or " A- l"- or " C- 3-"
may sound like gobbledygook to
most people, but they are part of
Charles Bondra's everyday lan-guage
these days
Bondra, the senior planner for the
Columbia Planning and Devel-opment
Department, for the past
eight months has been in charge of a
project designed to plan for the fu-ture
development of the aty
His assignment involves a com-plete
revision of the outdated 1969
master plan, a land- us- e document
that targets specific areas of the aty
for proposed residential, commer-cial
or industrial use
This new comprehensive plan also
involves the development of a policy
plan that designates the overall
goals and objectives for aty devel-opment
and a comprehensive trans-portation
plan that suggests im-provements
for all modes of city- wi- de
transportation
Two years ago, under the direction
of the Columbia City Council, the
planning department began the up-dating
process Ideally, Bondra said,
the plan should be updated every 10
years The previous plan was an
amended version of a plan developed
by the consulting firm of Hare and
Hare The first plan for the aty also
was done byHare and Hare in 1935
To make the massive task of plan-ning
the entire aty easier, the aty
was broken down into 12 " neighbor-hood
areas" within the aty limits,
along with a separate area surround-ing
the corporate limits, called the
" urban fringe" Three of the 12
neighborhood areas plans, Vandiver- Blu- e
Ridge, Sexton- Bussne- ss Loop
and the Central Business District,
have been adopted by the council, af-ter
surviving the public bearing
process
Two other neighborhood plans,
Whitegate- Rout- e B and Parkade- Cosm- o,
are ready for approval by
the council. The next area in line for
adoption is the Biscayne- Worle- y
area
The remaining areas include Rice- Balleng- er,
East Walnut- Keen- e,
Faimew- Rolbn- g, Rockbndge- Wood- rai- l,
Gnndstone- Nifon- g and East
( See COUNCIL, Page 8A)
Ktailtr1 iMBTg1 i I I I I A
HrhR Wi k f f 1 1 Sec" " KoHBHBaBlu -- rf'i
BvHBaBBpJRBJiP& HlflHBHEBBS& r' i ktC rMBflfiHfiHHBHHflHffBlHVBBBl
Waterworks It was like a monument to a hot summer's day D C The geyser shot 10 stories high, bringing
when a 12 inch mam waterline ruptured Thurs a shower of cooling relief, before workmen
day on 18th Street in downtown Washington, could shut it of f
OPEC concludes
talks in disarray;
price war looms
GENEVA, Switerland ( UPI)
OPEC ministers gave up their at-tempt
to unify od prices Friday and
angrily left for home after five days
of bitter talks that may have torn the
cartel apart
" No agreement goodbye,
snapped Venezuelan Oil Minister
Humberto Calderon Berti as he
rushed out of the conference hotel to
jet to Pans and connect with a Con-corde
airliner for home
Defying the price hawks, Saudi Oil
Minister Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Yama- n- i
later announced Saudi Arabia
would not raise its oil prices, already
the cheapest in OPEC, but would cut
back production by 1 million barrels
per day in September
Yamani called the cutback a ges-ture
to other producers having trou-ble
selling their oil for prices up to
$ 42 per barrel.
The Saudis, who charge $ 32, have
been producing 10 3 million barrels
of oil per day in a deliberate attempt
to force down prices by glutting the
market
Yamani said the decision to trim
back production would be reviewed
monthly but that Saudi Arabia's
price of $ 32 would stay firm until
the end of next year " -
OPECs failure to reunify oil
prices left the cartel in disarray and
threatened by the specter of a pnee
war OPEC hawks were openly fu-rious
at Yamani, who steadfastly
held the line at the five- d- a talks de-manding
what would have been the
first effective price cut in the car-tel's
history
Saudis want more Li . S arms P2A
He had offered to increase the
price of Saudi oil by $ 2 per barrel if
the other producers would cut their
prices and meet him at $ 34 a $ 2
decrease in the current average or
benchmark, price of $ 36
Yamani also insisted on a $ 3 limit
to the premiums some producers
would be allowed to charge on top of
the benchmark pnee to reflect the
higher qualitv of their crudes No
no $ 34 is the maximum, Yamani
said, rejecting both the hawks de-mand
for a base pnee of no less than
$ 36 and an Iraqi compromise of $ 35
It was because of the stubborn
position of Saudi Arabia, said Li-byan
Oil Minister Abdussalem Mo-hammed
Zagaar as he humed from
the hotel Everyone was willing to
give up something but they
weren't Saudi Arabia didn t want
to go up by just one dollar " he said,
adding bitterh, This hurts Arab
unity
Industry analysts said OPECs
failure to agree on a single pnee for
oil at the acrimonious meeting could
well explode into a pnee war as
members, battled one another for
customers
Hawks like Libya s Zagaar said be
would rather cut production than
pnees ' But finanaally troubled i
gena had alreadv served notice it
would be forced to slash its pnee
from $ 41 to $ 34 aO if no agreemert
was reached
Oil sheiks' bickering
gives drivers a break
New York Times
NEW YORK Gasoline pnees in
the United States are expected to re-main
generally stable and possibly
dip slightly over the next few months
because of the failure Friday of the
od ministers of the Organization of
Petroleum Exporting Countries to
agree on a uniform pnang policy
The result is particularly good
news in view of the widespread ex
pectahon before and during the min-isters'
meeting in Geneva that
OPEC would agree to a range of
pnees between $ 34 and $ 37 a barrel,
rather than the current $ 32 to $ 40
Had the new range been adopted
with its $ 34 minimum pnee, it would
have increased gasoline pnees in the
United States, many of which are
tied to the $ 32 pnee that Saudi Ara
bia charges for its basic crude
OPECs lndeasiveness thus, in ef
feet, saved Amencan dnvers 3 cents
or more a gallon, oil analvsts calcu
late
If, as expected, some Afncan and
Middle Eastern countries that now
charge $ 36 or more unilaterally re--
( See SAUDI, Page 8A)
Former mental patients find daybreak of new life
By Forrest Rose
Missouri& n staff writer
The bag stucco house at 303 Christian Col-lege
Ave looks like any other student dwell-ing
m Columbia The residents there,
though, aren't studying business or biology,
but a far more important lesson. They're
learning how to deal with life again after be-ing
in a mental institution
Daybreak Residential Treatment Center
has 12 residents, ranging in age from 17 to
54, all of whom have spent tune at the Fulton
State Hospital The center, which opened in
early February, gives them relative freedom
of movement, the opportunity to get jobs and
socialize outside the facility, and a small al-lowance
They also receive the basic essen-tials
of room, board, medication and coun-seling
when necessary And they have
friends.
" Everyone here is a friend," said Bart, a
thin, intense- lookin- g 23- year- - old resident
who, by his own account, " just went crazy "
' I was paying on a house I had a nice job
and a nice car Then I lost it," be said. " I
walked the streets for a week and slept in the
park."
Tormented by mysterious voices in his
head, Bart signed himself into a mental hos-pital
After a year, he transferred to the fa-culty
at Fulton.
" I stayed there for a year," he said. " They
didn't do a damn thug for my head, except
send me here In the hospital they do every-thing
for us It's three meals a day and sit
around This place helps us get used to Irving
again "
Bart hopes eventually to save $ 1,000 from
his job at the University's physical plant,
and then go to Texas and " party for a while,
maybe find a good job " But for now, his job,
his social life and his required chores at the
center keep bis schedule full
Bart's newest diversion is his 5- month-
- old
pup, which he rescued from the Humane So-ciety
He named me dog Daybreak.
" I built him a saddle to carry a six- pack- ,"
he said proudly " He s going to carry anoth-er
one in ras mouth."
Bart still hears voices, but " they dont get
to me like they used to Now I try to keep my
mind on what I'm doing "
Don Douglass is a large man with a gnn as
big as his girth. Douglass, the programming
director for Daybreak, said he was enthu-siastic
when the center's director, Frank
Boefam, came to nun with the original idea
for the program.
" Frank and I felt there was a real need for
this kind of service," he said. ' We presented
it to the Division of Mental Health, and for-tunately
they saw a need too "
Douglass said Daybreak is part of " a grad-ual
weaning process" to enable patients who
have been institutionalized to deal indepen-dently
with their problems.
" People get better in the hospital, but they
dont get wen," he said. " They don't get well
until they have to deal with the real world. "
Douglass said most Daybreak residents go
through several stages " The first few
weeks, they sit ardund and try to play hosp-ital,"
be said. Next there is a period of antiso-cial
behavior, where the residents test the
limits of their new freedom, ' getting a feel
for life again," Douglass said. ' After two to
four months, they find a middle ground
' These guys are Irving with a fear," he
said. " They have to learn that their prob-lems
are manageable
" One guy here had a real strong compul-sion
to succeed," said Douglass He was
overwhelmed by his first day on the job He
came back and said, Tm losm' it I want to
go back to the hospital.' "
' I said, ' You don't need to go back to the
hospital You can if you want to, but it s not
going to fix anything ' Well, he's sail here
And he's really doin' it Now he's going to
buy a motorcycle "
But some dont make it
Two residents " seriously needed to re-turn"
to the hospital in Fulton, said Doug-lass
" They had mewill, but not the way "
Most of the residents, though, welcome the
chance Day break provides for getting out of
the ward and into the world, even if they
have reservations about the program.
One such resident is Carl, 23 a senous
young man whose T- sh- irt boldlv proclaims
rm tired of being Cartenzed Re- ele- ct Rea
ganuil984"
' This program has been a tremendous
help to me ' he said But it costs too much
to do it"
Carl said it costs the taxpayers $ 1 175 per
resident per month to maintain Daybreak
But that s just an approximation, he said.
Carl has come a long way since he had
himself committed to the Mid- Misso- un Men-tal
Health Center in Columbia I had an all
out attack," he said. I was definitely sick at
Mid- M- o I was definitely an undesirable el
ement"
Now be plans to enroll at the University to
major in engineering He also plans to stay
at Day break
I enjoy living here I enjoy living with
( See RESIDENTS, Page 8A)
Century of global warming predicted
New York Times
NEW YORK A team of federal saentists
says it has detected an overall warmmg trend
m the earth's atmosphere extending back to
1880 They regard this as evidence of the val-idity
of the " greenhouse" effect, in which in-creasing
amounts of carbon dioxide cause
steady temperature increases
The seven atmospheric saentists of NASA's
Institute for Space Studies predict a global
warmmg of " almost unprecedented magni-tude"
m the next century The effect may be
sufficient to melt and dislodge the ice cover of
West Antarctica, they say, eventually leading
to a worldwide rise of 15 to 20 feet in the sea
kveL In that case, it would " flood 25 percent of
Louisiana and Florida, 10 percent of New Jer-sey,
and many other lowlands throughout the
world" within a century or less
The forecast, based on analyses and comput-er
ahrmlaftfm conducted by the institute, also
envisions widespread disruption of agricul-ture.
The authors plan to publish their forecast
in the Aug. 23 issue of the journal Science
The possibility that the greenhouse effect
could alter the eartn s temperature has been
debated for many years Carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere, which is primarily a result of
mankind's burning of fuels, is thought to act
like the glass of a greenhouse It absorbs heat
radiation from the earth and its atmosphere
beat that otherwise would dissipate into
space Other factors being equal, the more
carbon dioxide there is m the atmosphere, the
warmer the earth should become, according to
the theory
Saentists have agreed that carbon dioxide is
increasing, but the major difficulty m accept- in- g
the greenhouse theory has been lack of evi-dence
that temperatures are warming cosn- ade- nt
with the increasemcarbon dioxide
The amount of carbon dioxide in the air is
now 335 to 340 parts per million, up by at least
40 parts per million over a century ago The
figure is expected to reach at least GOO parts
per million in the next century.
For years, atmospheric researchers have
been confounded by an apparent cooling trend
since 1940 As a result, many concluded that
the climatic effects of increased carbon diox- -
ide might not become detectable for many de-cades
But the institute's saentists say they see
dear evidence that carbon dioxide added to
the atmosphere since the Industrial Revolution
of the 19th century has already warmed the cli-mate
to an observable extent
The researchers based their conclusion that
the climate has warmed by almost one degree
in the last century on a re- analy- sis of global
observations, with special attention given to
the Southern Hemisphere " The common mis-conception
that the world is cooling," they say,
" is based on Northern Henrisphere experience
to 1970"
But, they add, " The hot, dry summer of 1980
may be typical of the United States in the next
century if the model results are correct "
If fuel burning increases at a slow rate with
emphasis on other energy sources, the study
predicts a global temperature nse m the next
century of about 5 degrees Fahrenheit. If fuel
use rises rapidly, which some believe may oc-cur
as the developmg countries industrialize,
the predicted nse is from 6 to 9 degrees
Even the more moderate rise of 5 degrees
the authors say. would result in higher aver-age
temperatures than were reached in the pe-riod
between the last two ice ages At that time
sea levels were 30 feet higher than they are to-day,
probably because West Antarctica was
ice free The climate " would approach the
warmth of the Mesozoic, the age of dino-saurs,"
the report says
The study's conclusions are likely to be chal-lenged
on two counts mar detection of a trend
of temperature increase and linking it with a
carbon dioxide increase, and their projected
consequences of the increase
The study's assumptions are open to chal-lenge
on uncertain factors such as population
growth rates, energy- consumin- g trends in the
developing world, new developments in solar
energy and other alternative energy sources,
trends in energy conservation and lack of
knowledge regarding the extent to which
oceans might remove carbon dioxide from the
air
These uncertainties are, to a large extent,
recognized in the report.
today
The Audubon Ark will be in
the Biscayne Mall parking lot
today The traveling mim- m- u
seum, an educational program
of the National Audobon Socie-ty,
is designed to inform
Americans about endangered
birds and other speaes
Index g
Business . - . " A
Classified . - - .2- 5- B
Opinion - ... 4A I
People .. . SA
Sports .... 1- 2- B
Theater 28
Weather JUi

' oTVTE HI." " HI CI-- T'
HITT & LC'm T. -- ' Z
COLUMBIA li,. 652JI
73rd Year - N- - 289 Good Morning! It's Saturday, August 22, 1981 2 Sections - 14 Pages - 25 Cent
Insight
Mapping
the growth
of Columbia
City staff revising
land- us- e plan
By Sharon Green
MZssoorlan staff writer
Maps and charts tracing parcels of
land zoned " R-- l" or " A- l"- or " C- 3-"
may sound like gobbledygook to
most people, but they are part of
Charles Bondra's everyday lan-guage
these days
Bondra, the senior planner for the
Columbia Planning and Devel-opment
Department, for the past
eight months has been in charge of a
project designed to plan for the fu-ture
development of the aty
His assignment involves a com-plete
revision of the outdated 1969
master plan, a land- us- e document
that targets specific areas of the aty
for proposed residential, commer-cial
or industrial use
This new comprehensive plan also
involves the development of a policy
plan that designates the overall
goals and objectives for aty devel-opment
and a comprehensive trans-portation
plan that suggests im-provements
for all modes of city- wi- de
transportation
Two years ago, under the direction
of the Columbia City Council, the
planning department began the up-dating
process Ideally, Bondra said,
the plan should be updated every 10
years The previous plan was an
amended version of a plan developed
by the consulting firm of Hare and
Hare The first plan for the aty also
was done byHare and Hare in 1935
To make the massive task of plan-ning
the entire aty easier, the aty
was broken down into 12 " neighbor-hood
areas" within the aty limits,
along with a separate area surround-ing
the corporate limits, called the
" urban fringe" Three of the 12
neighborhood areas plans, Vandiver- Blu- e
Ridge, Sexton- Bussne- ss Loop
and the Central Business District,
have been adopted by the council, af-ter
surviving the public bearing
process
Two other neighborhood plans,
Whitegate- Rout- e B and Parkade- Cosm- o,
are ready for approval by
the council. The next area in line for
adoption is the Biscayne- Worle- y
area
The remaining areas include Rice- Balleng- er,
East Walnut- Keen- e,
Faimew- Rolbn- g, Rockbndge- Wood- rai- l,
Gnndstone- Nifon- g and East
( See COUNCIL, Page 8A)
Ktailtr1 iMBTg1 i I I I I A
HrhR Wi k f f 1 1 Sec" " KoHBHBaBlu -- rf'i
BvHBaBBpJRBJiP& HlflHBHEBBS& r' i ktC rMBflfiHfiHHBHHflHffBlHVBBBl
Waterworks It was like a monument to a hot summer's day D C The geyser shot 10 stories high, bringing
when a 12 inch mam waterline ruptured Thurs a shower of cooling relief, before workmen
day on 18th Street in downtown Washington, could shut it of f
OPEC concludes
talks in disarray;
price war looms
GENEVA, Switerland ( UPI)
OPEC ministers gave up their at-tempt
to unify od prices Friday and
angrily left for home after five days
of bitter talks that may have torn the
cartel apart
" No agreement goodbye,
snapped Venezuelan Oil Minister
Humberto Calderon Berti as he
rushed out of the conference hotel to
jet to Pans and connect with a Con-corde
airliner for home
Defying the price hawks, Saudi Oil
Minister Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Yama- n- i
later announced Saudi Arabia
would not raise its oil prices, already
the cheapest in OPEC, but would cut
back production by 1 million barrels
per day in September
Yamani called the cutback a ges-ture
to other producers having trou-ble
selling their oil for prices up to
$ 42 per barrel.
The Saudis, who charge $ 32, have
been producing 10 3 million barrels
of oil per day in a deliberate attempt
to force down prices by glutting the
market
Yamani said the decision to trim
back production would be reviewed
monthly but that Saudi Arabia's
price of $ 32 would stay firm until
the end of next year " -
OPECs failure to reunify oil
prices left the cartel in disarray and
threatened by the specter of a pnee
war OPEC hawks were openly fu-rious
at Yamani, who steadfastly
held the line at the five- d- a talks de-manding
what would have been the
first effective price cut in the car-tel's
history
Saudis want more Li . S arms P2A
He had offered to increase the
price of Saudi oil by $ 2 per barrel if
the other producers would cut their
prices and meet him at $ 34 a $ 2
decrease in the current average or
benchmark, price of $ 36
Yamani also insisted on a $ 3 limit
to the premiums some producers
would be allowed to charge on top of
the benchmark pnee to reflect the
higher qualitv of their crudes No
no $ 34 is the maximum, Yamani
said, rejecting both the hawks de-mand
for a base pnee of no less than
$ 36 and an Iraqi compromise of $ 35
It was because of the stubborn
position of Saudi Arabia, said Li-byan
Oil Minister Abdussalem Mo-hammed
Zagaar as he humed from
the hotel Everyone was willing to
give up something but they
weren't Saudi Arabia didn t want
to go up by just one dollar " he said,
adding bitterh, This hurts Arab
unity
Industry analysts said OPECs
failure to agree on a single pnee for
oil at the acrimonious meeting could
well explode into a pnee war as
members, battled one another for
customers
Hawks like Libya s Zagaar said be
would rather cut production than
pnees ' But finanaally troubled i
gena had alreadv served notice it
would be forced to slash its pnee
from $ 41 to $ 34 aO if no agreemert
was reached
Oil sheiks' bickering
gives drivers a break
New York Times
NEW YORK Gasoline pnees in
the United States are expected to re-main
generally stable and possibly
dip slightly over the next few months
because of the failure Friday of the
od ministers of the Organization of
Petroleum Exporting Countries to
agree on a uniform pnang policy
The result is particularly good
news in view of the widespread ex
pectahon before and during the min-isters'
meeting in Geneva that
OPEC would agree to a range of
pnees between $ 34 and $ 37 a barrel,
rather than the current $ 32 to $ 40
Had the new range been adopted
with its $ 34 minimum pnee, it would
have increased gasoline pnees in the
United States, many of which are
tied to the $ 32 pnee that Saudi Ara
bia charges for its basic crude
OPECs lndeasiveness thus, in ef
feet, saved Amencan dnvers 3 cents
or more a gallon, oil analvsts calcu
late
If, as expected, some Afncan and
Middle Eastern countries that now
charge $ 36 or more unilaterally re--
( See SAUDI, Page 8A)
Former mental patients find daybreak of new life
By Forrest Rose
Missouri& n staff writer
The bag stucco house at 303 Christian Col-lege
Ave looks like any other student dwell-ing
m Columbia The residents there,
though, aren't studying business or biology,
but a far more important lesson. They're
learning how to deal with life again after be-ing
in a mental institution
Daybreak Residential Treatment Center
has 12 residents, ranging in age from 17 to
54, all of whom have spent tune at the Fulton
State Hospital The center, which opened in
early February, gives them relative freedom
of movement, the opportunity to get jobs and
socialize outside the facility, and a small al-lowance
They also receive the basic essen-tials
of room, board, medication and coun-seling
when necessary And they have
friends.
" Everyone here is a friend," said Bart, a
thin, intense- lookin- g 23- year- - old resident
who, by his own account, " just went crazy "
' I was paying on a house I had a nice job
and a nice car Then I lost it," be said. " I
walked the streets for a week and slept in the
park."
Tormented by mysterious voices in his
head, Bart signed himself into a mental hos-pital
After a year, he transferred to the fa-culty
at Fulton.
" I stayed there for a year," he said. " They
didn't do a damn thug for my head, except
send me here In the hospital they do every-thing
for us It's three meals a day and sit
around This place helps us get used to Irving
again "
Bart hopes eventually to save $ 1,000 from
his job at the University's physical plant,
and then go to Texas and " party for a while,
maybe find a good job " But for now, his job,
his social life and his required chores at the
center keep bis schedule full
Bart's newest diversion is his 5- month-
- old
pup, which he rescued from the Humane So-ciety
He named me dog Daybreak.
" I built him a saddle to carry a six- pack- ,"
he said proudly " He s going to carry anoth-er
one in ras mouth."
Bart still hears voices, but " they dont get
to me like they used to Now I try to keep my
mind on what I'm doing "
Don Douglass is a large man with a gnn as
big as his girth. Douglass, the programming
director for Daybreak, said he was enthu-siastic
when the center's director, Frank
Boefam, came to nun with the original idea
for the program.
" Frank and I felt there was a real need for
this kind of service," he said. ' We presented
it to the Division of Mental Health, and for-tunately
they saw a need too "
Douglass said Daybreak is part of " a grad-ual
weaning process" to enable patients who
have been institutionalized to deal indepen-dently
with their problems.
" People get better in the hospital, but they
dont get wen," he said. " They don't get well
until they have to deal with the real world. "
Douglass said most Daybreak residents go
through several stages " The first few
weeks, they sit ardund and try to play hosp-ital,"
be said. Next there is a period of antiso-cial
behavior, where the residents test the
limits of their new freedom, ' getting a feel
for life again," Douglass said. ' After two to
four months, they find a middle ground
' These guys are Irving with a fear," he
said. " They have to learn that their prob-lems
are manageable
" One guy here had a real strong compul-sion
to succeed," said Douglass He was
overwhelmed by his first day on the job He
came back and said, Tm losm' it I want to
go back to the hospital.' "
' I said, ' You don't need to go back to the
hospital You can if you want to, but it s not
going to fix anything ' Well, he's sail here
And he's really doin' it Now he's going to
buy a motorcycle "
But some dont make it
Two residents " seriously needed to re-turn"
to the hospital in Fulton, said Doug-lass
" They had mewill, but not the way "
Most of the residents, though, welcome the
chance Day break provides for getting out of
the ward and into the world, even if they
have reservations about the program.
One such resident is Carl, 23 a senous
young man whose T- sh- irt boldlv proclaims
rm tired of being Cartenzed Re- ele- ct Rea
ganuil984"
' This program has been a tremendous
help to me ' he said But it costs too much
to do it"
Carl said it costs the taxpayers $ 1 175 per
resident per month to maintain Daybreak
But that s just an approximation, he said.
Carl has come a long way since he had
himself committed to the Mid- Misso- un Men-tal
Health Center in Columbia I had an all
out attack," he said. I was definitely sick at
Mid- M- o I was definitely an undesirable el
ement"
Now be plans to enroll at the University to
major in engineering He also plans to stay
at Day break
I enjoy living here I enjoy living with
( See RESIDENTS, Page 8A)
Century of global warming predicted
New York Times
NEW YORK A team of federal saentists
says it has detected an overall warmmg trend
m the earth's atmosphere extending back to
1880 They regard this as evidence of the val-idity
of the " greenhouse" effect, in which in-creasing
amounts of carbon dioxide cause
steady temperature increases
The seven atmospheric saentists of NASA's
Institute for Space Studies predict a global
warmmg of " almost unprecedented magni-tude"
m the next century The effect may be
sufficient to melt and dislodge the ice cover of
West Antarctica, they say, eventually leading
to a worldwide rise of 15 to 20 feet in the sea
kveL In that case, it would " flood 25 percent of
Louisiana and Florida, 10 percent of New Jer-sey,
and many other lowlands throughout the
world" within a century or less
The forecast, based on analyses and comput-er
ahrmlaftfm conducted by the institute, also
envisions widespread disruption of agricul-ture.
The authors plan to publish their forecast
in the Aug. 23 issue of the journal Science
The possibility that the greenhouse effect
could alter the eartn s temperature has been
debated for many years Carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere, which is primarily a result of
mankind's burning of fuels, is thought to act
like the glass of a greenhouse It absorbs heat
radiation from the earth and its atmosphere
beat that otherwise would dissipate into
space Other factors being equal, the more
carbon dioxide there is m the atmosphere, the
warmer the earth should become, according to
the theory
Saentists have agreed that carbon dioxide is
increasing, but the major difficulty m accept- in- g
the greenhouse theory has been lack of evi-dence
that temperatures are warming cosn- ade- nt
with the increasemcarbon dioxide
The amount of carbon dioxide in the air is
now 335 to 340 parts per million, up by at least
40 parts per million over a century ago The
figure is expected to reach at least GOO parts
per million in the next century.
For years, atmospheric researchers have
been confounded by an apparent cooling trend
since 1940 As a result, many concluded that
the climatic effects of increased carbon diox- -
ide might not become detectable for many de-cades
But the institute's saentists say they see
dear evidence that carbon dioxide added to
the atmosphere since the Industrial Revolution
of the 19th century has already warmed the cli-mate
to an observable extent
The researchers based their conclusion that
the climate has warmed by almost one degree
in the last century on a re- analy- sis of global
observations, with special attention given to
the Southern Hemisphere " The common mis-conception
that the world is cooling," they say,
" is based on Northern Henrisphere experience
to 1970"
But, they add, " The hot, dry summer of 1980
may be typical of the United States in the next
century if the model results are correct "
If fuel burning increases at a slow rate with
emphasis on other energy sources, the study
predicts a global temperature nse m the next
century of about 5 degrees Fahrenheit. If fuel
use rises rapidly, which some believe may oc-cur
as the developmg countries industrialize,
the predicted nse is from 6 to 9 degrees
Even the more moderate rise of 5 degrees
the authors say. would result in higher aver-age
temperatures than were reached in the pe-riod
between the last two ice ages At that time
sea levels were 30 feet higher than they are to-day,
probably because West Antarctica was
ice free The climate " would approach the
warmth of the Mesozoic, the age of dino-saurs,"
the report says
The study's conclusions are likely to be chal-lenged
on two counts mar detection of a trend
of temperature increase and linking it with a
carbon dioxide increase, and their projected
consequences of the increase
The study's assumptions are open to chal-lenge
on uncertain factors such as population
growth rates, energy- consumin- g trends in the
developing world, new developments in solar
energy and other alternative energy sources,
trends in energy conservation and lack of
knowledge regarding the extent to which
oceans might remove carbon dioxide from the
air
These uncertainties are, to a large extent,
recognized in the report.
today
The Audubon Ark will be in
the Biscayne Mall parking lot
today The traveling mim- m- u
seum, an educational program
of the National Audobon Socie-ty,
is designed to inform
Americans about endangered
birds and other speaes
Index g
Business . - . " A
Classified . - - .2- 5- B
Opinion - ... 4A I
People .. . SA
Sports .... 1- 2- B
Theater 28
Weather JUi