Ancient Chinese curse: may you live in interesting times. This web site is my attempt to document, from my perspective, these "interesting times".

Thursday, July 29, 2004

Troubling Thoughts

Steve Soto
passes on a conversation he had with Joe Trippi in which Trippi said that if
Kerry doesn't opt out of public financing for the general election that
it could make the difference for victory. Trippi went on to suggest that Bush
might opt out after Kerry has already opted in and thus tie Kerry's hands to
only $75 million for the general while Bush could rake in the dough and bury him
in the process.

I talked to two Kerry staffers about Trippi's observations, and both told
me that 1) Kerry would not opt out because it would be too hard to raise the
$75 million themselves in the remaining time and pass up what in essence is
free money; 2) in order to pass up the $75 million and make it worth it, Kerry
would really have to raise much more than that; and 3) they weren't worried
about Bush opting out because the Bush people had told these Kerry guys that
they would not do this.

I think the first and second points are questionable. Kerry has already
raised over $185 million this season. $75+ million is not outside the realm of
possibility over the next three months.

However, the third point is far more disturbing. Why in the world is there anyone
in the Kerry team that places any value in an assurance from the Bush people? I
thought they would have learned their lesson on this point already. Never
take them at their word. They will screw you over every time.

I don't know if Bush will opt out after Kerry has already locked himself
down. It's an option that carries some political risk. Americans, if nothing
else, appreciate a fair fight. If the race is close, the perception that Bush is
"cheating" when it comes to fundraising might make the difference to a
significant number of swing voters. If played right, such a choice might be used
against Bush in the Fall.

I don't know if this is something to seriously worry about. But I am
concerned that there are people in the Kerry campaign who still trust the word
of the Bushies. That is what seriously worries me.