Disclaimer:
This Blog,its owner,creator & contributor is neither a research analyst nor an Investment Advisor and expressing opinion only as an Investor in Indian equities.He/She is not responsible for any loss arising out of any information,post or opinion appearing on this blog.Investors are advised to do own due diligence and/or consult financial consultant before acting on any such information.Author of this blog not providing any paid service and not sending bulk mails/SMS to anyone.

Monday, February 28, 2011

Chennai-based Orchid Chemicals and Pharmaceuticals is at an inflexion point of growth. After selling its lucrative injectable formulations business to Hospira last year, the company has built upon its remaining non-injectable business to grow over and above its pre-sale revenues. Investors can participate in the company’s progress as it forges growth across its various business segments.

BUSINESS

The Rs 1,400-crore Orchid Chemicals is among the top five generic antibiotics manufacturers in the world. It earns 90% revenue from overseas markets. Since inception, Orchid has established a strong foothold in niche therapeutic segments that are relatively uncluttered due to the inherent technical complexity. In December 2009, the company sold its injectable business to US-based pharma major Hospira at Rs 1,900 crore. It used the proceeds to to reduce the debt and redeem foreign currency convertible bonds (FCCBs) to the tune of Rs 110 crore.

As a part of the deal, Orchid also has a 10-year arrangement with Hospira for supplying active pharmaceutical ingredients (API) for the sold injectable products. It has emerged as the single-largest segment with 25% contribution to the topline.

Orchid has also started supplying APIs to other companies. It is among the very few players in the world supplying certain group of anti-biotics like cephalosporins, penecillins etc to regulated markets in the US and Europe.

GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES

After reducing its borrowings, Orchid Chemicals is now getting into formulations business by either buying businesses or in-licensing brands in therapies outside of antibiotics. It recently acquired Karalex Pharma , a US-based generic marketing and sales services company. Karalex has been growing at 20% annually. The company expects strong growth over the next three years in nonpenicillin, non-cephalosporin (NPNC) segment.

For many of these products, Orchid possesses marketing alliances in the US and Europe with prominent players such as Actavis, North Star and Alvogen.

FINANCIALS

For the nine months ended December 2010, the company registered a 20% growth in net sales. Its net profit stood at `97 crore against a year-ago loss of `58 crore. The debt repayment from the Hospira deal proceeds helped to improve margins.Orchid is likely to surpass its guidance of 30% growth in revenue and net profit of Rs 140 crore for FY11. It would invest Rs 400 crore by FY12 in new therapeutic areas of ophthalmology and immuno-suppressants. Orchid’s management expects the contribution of revenue from Hospira deal to remain in the region of 20-25% in the near term.

VALUATIONS

At a market cap of Rs 1,867 crore, the company is valued at one-and-a-half times its last 12 months turnover of Rs 1,385 crore. Its stock is trading at 3.8 times its earnings. These are low valuations for a company that has potential to be a sector outperformer in the coming quarters. The promoter has been steadily increasing its stake in the company reinforcing management’s confidence.

An email offering high-yield guaranteed bonds tries to lure investors with the promise of an unbelievable 14% return. It uses the Bajaj Allianz company name, but the company says it does not have any such product

On the face of it, it seems to be a super offer from a well-known name like Bajaj Allianz. But it is not. If you receive an email that is ostensibly from Bajaj Allianz, offering 14% per annum return on a bond, as well as a customer service number, please ignore it. Bajaj Allianz has said that it does not have any such product and it has cautioned investors to guard against subscribing to it.

The email we received purports that the last date of this Republic Day offer has been extended from 18th February to 26th February following the overwhelming response from investors. It explains that the high yield of 14% will be earned through arbitrage. It assures that the bonds are secured and the corpus is deposited into the contingent fund of the Bajaj group, to give an impression of genuineness. The email has a contact number (1800-233-2727) number that gets no response even though it says its a 24x7 helpline. It uses the logo of Bajaj Allianz with the words 'Dial befikar', a copy of the Bajaj Allianz slogan 'Jiyo befikar'.

Let's emphasise the red flags again. The email has a gmail address. There was no response when we dialled the mobile number that is given. The product detail specifies 14% ap and not 14% p.a. It also mentions an insurance cover and tax benefits available along with the plan, but does not give any details. But what have guaranteed bonds got to do with insurance cover? The email also uses several words like 'guaranteed bond', 'fixed deposit', 'guaranteed investment return plan', 'wealth ins' and so on, quite loosely.

It describes the investment details in the following way: "Deposits invested basically in resources, infrastructure, consumption and human capital sectors. These sectors have grown by 48% every year in last 10 years & have majorly contributed to India's economic development." No matter what the sector, no credible institution is offering such high returns.

When Moneylife contacted Bajaj Allianz about this email offer, Santosh Balan, head of corporate communications at Bajaj Allianz, said, "We have checked our records and would like to state that this communication is not from any of our authorised persons or distribution channels. There is no person by the name Abhijeet Shaheja in our system. It seems that the person on his own has gone ahead and sent this communication and used the brand name of some of our popular products like Shield Insurance, Max Advantage and Wealth Insurance to his or her advantage. From the mailers attached it seems that he is not selling any of our insurance plans per se other than comparing it with some of the popular products. The SMS and toll-free numbers do not belong to Bajaj Allianz."

Thursday, February 24, 2011

Websol Energy Systems Ltd is the first listed company in Indian stock market from the Solar space.For the last few years ,company's performance badly affected mainly due to the production disturbance on account of capacity expansion in existing production line ,change in technology and shifting of running plant to a SEZ where tax benefits are available..etc Recently company has increased its SPV capacity to 60 MW and expected to double the same by 2011-12 FY.Even if there is some other companies are recently listed in this space ,Websol is more attractive on various financial parameters . .Now our government is paying much attention to non conventional energy sources and expecting some favorable announcements in near future .The Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission is aiming 20 GW solar energy generation by 2020. Even if the current spike in oil price is due to some special reasons like unrest in oil producing countries ,the trend of rising prices of energy sources are expected to continue in tandem with the revival in western economies .Such a situation will again attract investors towards non conventional energy stocks .Websol is a good bet from this sector which is trading now at 52 low @ Rs.59/-

Wednesday, February 23, 2011

It is very rare to see a company trading at a P/E below just 1. Yes , it is Compact Disc which posted an EPS of Rs.50/- last year and currently trading around Rs.39/- . No need to get exited and punch order to BUY this stock because of its throw away valuation. There is lot of questionable practices going on here . This multimedia - animation company is announcing the beginning of many projects but then there is nothing about its completion or releasing and cash flow from such projects. Instead of that ,company is announcing the beginning of another projects and so on. To keep the faith of the investors and shore up the share prices ,promoters are playing various tricks like dividend,de-listing ..etc. After declaring dividends company deferred it and again announced a date for reconsidering the same .But even after 6 months of the date of EGM for re considering the dividend ,there is no announcement about it. In the case of de- listing ,company announced an EGM after three months to take final decision .If past is any indication they will cancel the de listing decision in that EGM . It is really funny to see that Forbes Asia Editors have selected Compact Disc India Ltd. as one of the 'Best Under A Billion' Company.I don't know ,what is the meaning of ' BEST' the Forbes means .If they are selecting this types of companies it will only help to destroy the reputation of even the well known 'Forbes' . Since we - the investors - have limited options to check the validity of claims made by companies and no chance to check their bank accounts ,we can see these type of results and claims even after the story of Satyam Computer. But the shocking part is ,even the police authorities informed the activities of the promoters of Compact Disc about a decade back ,the watchdog of Capital market did not take any action or inquiry about these people .You can read that story HERE

TOTAL EXPORTS is another company from the same management and its suspension revoked recently and now trading around its 52 week high .

So ,it is better to study the history of promoters before started buying stocks only on the basis of published financial results.

Thursday, February 17, 2011

Old investors may not kind enough to read anything about this company if they know the main promoter of Claris Lifesciences Mr. Arjun S. Handa is the son of Mr Sushil Handa, who was the promoter of Core Healthcare Ltd (CHL). Core Healthcare was a star in Indian stock market and its share price touched four digit marks in 1990 -1994 period .It was not without a reason or because of price rigging. CHL started by Sushil Handa - an MBA- from Punjab in 1986.Its state-of -the art manufacturing facility was located in a 600 acre campus near Ahmedabad . In just seven years CHL becomes the largest manufacturer of IV Fluids in Asia with excellent growth rate . The death was equally dramatic as the growth . Company went into serious troubles and ends as a winding up case.Many points mentioned as the reason for these unbelievable fall ,some of them are following :

* Siphoning of money by the top management *Diversion of company fund to own business* Over aggressiveness and over expansion using leveraged funds * Inexperience of Handa as a first generation entrepreneur* Exports without letters of credit to countries where exports were not backed by RBI guarantees * Crash of USSR where company had significant business interests * Diversification to unrelated fields like power which caused for a clear loss of Rs.100 Cr

etc...etc...etc..

Anyway ,CHL, the company once stands almost equal to Dr Reddy's Lab ends in debt trap Claris Lifesciences

It is promoted byMr Arjun S. Handason of Mr Sushil Handa .Company came out with an IPO in recent times.After the opening of IPO ,due to poor response - mainly on account of the above mentioned bad mark - company slashed the offer price from Rs.278 - Rs.293 to Rs.228 to Rs.235 and managed with 1.5 time subscription. Claris is one of the largest sterile injectables pharmaceutical companies in India. Company have five manufacturing facilities spread over a 78-acre campus located in Ahmedabad and it is exporting its products to 76 countries across the globe.Company's financial year ending is in December and in FY 2009 ,company posted a turnover of Rs. 744 Cr and a net profit of Rs.125 Cr .Its net sales increasing at a CAGR of 26.9% and net profit posting a strong CAGR of 65.6% over CY2005-09.Company is going to declare its FY 2010 numbers on 24 Feb 2011. On the negative side ,US Food and Drug Administrator (USFDA) issued a warning letter to the company due to violations of Current Good Manufacturing Practice .US accounts about 6 % of company's total sale.

What to do ?

Company's size,prospects and growth deserves better valuation . But everything depends on the answer of few questions - What was the real reason behind the failure of Core Health care ?.Whether it is a pre-planned drama or due to reasons beyond the control of promoters even if they tried their level best ?. Have they learned a lesson from the past experience ?

Wednesday, February 16, 2011

H&M was investigated for making false announcements to influence the stock price and hiding information about acquisition of vMoksha

The Securities and Exchange Board (SEBI) of India has finally imposed a Rs50 lakh penalty on controversial Helios and Matheson (H&M) Information Technology, which has long been under the scrutiny of regulators for alleged financial irregularities.

The SEBI order was issued on 31 January 2011 and the company reported the matter of the fine to the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) on Friday. The issue mainly concerns some fake and favourable announcements that the company made to the stock exchange in order to influence the movement of the stock price.

SEBI had said in a show-cause notice to the company that "H&M had made various favourable corporate announcements during the investigation period, that is about the issue of bonus shares, dividend, and declared favourable unaudited quarterly results, etc., besides the announcement of acquiring three entities of vMoksha Technologies Pvt Ltd." SEBI also charged the company with not disclosing the status of the profitability of vMoksha companies that it allegedly acquired.

Incidentally, Rajeev Sawhney, a co-founder of vMoksha Technologies, has been fighting a relentless battle, even knocking on the doors of various regulators, including SEBI and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), as well as the Ministry of Corporate Affairs, to expose dubious issues over the acquisition of vMoksha.

The company levelled counter charges of 'insider trading' against Mr Sawhney and this was also investigated by SEBI. Interestingly, on the same day that SEBI issued orders against H&M, it also passed orders against Mr Sawhney and fined him Rs 25 lakh.

H&M has filed winding up proceedings against vMoksha in Bengaluru and there is a separate arbitration proceeding pending between H&M and vMoksha which has been delayed due to the death of the arbitrator and the lawyer.

SEBI's order says that H&M "failed to make announcements/ disclosures with regard to price-sensitive information" and "had not informed the stock exchange about the interim developments such as (the fact that) its attempt to acquire three vMoksha companies had not materialised in the stipulated time period, i.e. within 120 days as specified in the SPA (share purchase agreement) and the judicial/arbitration proceedings which started in relation to the same".

H&M was under the scanner of the Enforcement Directorate (ED) in March 2008 and raids were conducted at the company's headquarters in Chennai. Moneylife learned that the raids were based on investigations by the RBI which revealed foreign exchange violations in the vMoksha deal and the reports were given to the ED in November 2007.

Moneylife has also reported about financial irregularities in the acquisition of vMoksha by H&M. The battle started in 2005, when H&M announced a $19 million buyout of vMoksha, co-founded by Mr Sawhney and Pawan Kumar (former CEO of the controversial DSQ Software). Mr Sawhney put in the money and Mr Kumar managed the operations.

Mr Sawhney realised that he had been kept in the dark about many aspects of the deal. For instance, he found that instead of receiving $19 million, a bank account had been 'fraudulently' opened with the State Bank of Mauritius in the name of vMoksha that was used to borrow US$13.5 million with the help of a fake board sanction and some false entries. That money was remitted to H&M ostensibly for subscription of redeemable preference shares on 28 June 2005. (Read: Helios & Matheson under the scanner)

H&M has also informed the BSE that it plans to appeal to the Securities Appellate Tribunal (SAT) against the SEBI order. Mr Sawhney has also said that he will appeal against the SEBI order against him.

Monday, February 14, 2011

Jubilant Bhartia Group is one of the best wealth creators in Indian Stock Market. An investment in their first listed company Vam Organics - Now Jubilant Life Sciences- returned many fold for investors through bonus issue,Face value split to Rs.1/- and a de- merger .After all these processes Jubilant Life science is currently trading around Rs.200/- .Another company from the same group is Jubilant Food works which is running the 'Dominos' pizza chain in India .Last year company came out with a public issue @ Rs.145/- and now it is trading above Rs.500/- which gives the highest return from an IPO in last many years.Recently Jubilant Life sciences de-merged the company into two divisions. Its agri business and Performance Polymers business divisions are now moved to a new entity named Jubilant Industries.Today company listed in stock exchanges and closed at a price of Rs.207/- Under this division ,company manufacturing various Crop Nutrition and
Crop Growth Regulators under the brand name 'Ramban' and distributing Crop Protection products. Performance polymer products includes vinyl pyridine latex, emulsion polymers, adhesives, wood finishes, speciality polymers and food polymers .Company also manufacturing 100,000cases/month of IMFL for various brands. For the Nine months ended December quarter Jubilant Industries posted a turnover of Rs.446 Cr and a net profit of Rs.28 Cr . On an equity base of Rs 8 Cr (FV 10/-) company's nine month EPS is Rs.34/- .Considering the past history of Jubilant group ,current price of the scrip seems attractive .One should remember the fact that , it has just listed today and investor/analyst community may not studied /analyzed the scrip and hence there may be wide fluctuations till it settled somewhere. So, at present it is only for high risk takers and only in small lots.CMP is Rs.207/-
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Please note that all the above data are based on the sources available in public domain. Since it is a new entity, there is lot of difficulties to gather data .Even if I try my level best to ensure the genuineness of the data , no guarantee for the same and in no way responsible for any error..

Thursday, February 10, 2011

EPC Industrie is one of our past recommendation @ Rs.61 (Old Report HERE) . Yesterday company announced the entry of Mahindra and Mahindra (M & M) as one of the promoter ,by way of issuing 65.58 lac equity shares on preferential basis which is close to 40% of the total equity. This is expected to a big relief for EPC which was struggling to utilize the available opportunities due to lack of working capital.CMP is Rs.76.95

Wednesday, February 9, 2011

I have recommended a BUY on this ITC Group company @ Rs.165 /- on 25 th April ,2010.After touching a high of Rs.316/- ,currently it is trading around Rs.182/- .Considering the better performance of the company and the bright prospects of the Travel and Tourism industry , I reiterate a BUY at current level.For the Nine month ended December ITHL posted a net profit of Rs.13 Cr v/s Rs.8 Cr and an EPS of Rs. 16 v/s Rs.10 for the same period in last FY.

Sunday, February 6, 2011

Novartis India is 76% subsidiary of Swiss drug major Novartis AG.Company's Indian operations can be classified into Pharmaceuticals, Generics, OTC and Animal Health.Novaris have some good brands like Voveran,Otrivin ..etc Company also own some popular brands like Sandimmun, Neoral,Tegrital.
In the animal health division company's brands include Natuzyme,Denagard..etc.
In 2009 ,company came out with an open offer and raised the parent's stake to current level.
In recent times company showing aggressiveness in development and marketing of new products especially in
Cough, Cold, and Allergy category. Reflection of the same is already visible in its financials.
For the latest December quarter company posted a turnover of Rs.184 Cr ( Rs.160 Cr) and a net profit of RS.41 Cr (Rs.23 Cr) Full year EPS is expected around Rs.48/-.Along with good prospects of pharma industry in India due to increasing health awareness and government focus,company's better commitment after hiking its parent's stake is expected to augurs well for Novartis going forward.At CMP of Rs.622,Novartis is a good bet from pharma sector.

As you watched the Sensex zip past 20,000 in October, you told yourself – “I missed this one! But I'll wait for a correction”. Well, the wait is now over. The Sensex has dipped by over 10 per cent since New Year, with some stocks plunging by as much as 20-30 per cent.

What you, as a young investor, should do now is quite clear. You should be putting away some of your savings (in measured doses) into blue-chip stocks or equity mutual funds for the long term. However, that's easier said that done. So we thought we had better tell you what you shouldn't do in a market fall! Don't:

Head for the exit door

A few months ago, you carefully picked blue-chip stocks and decided to buy them for your retirement. Your ‘portfolio' was doing fine until the markets began to correct. Now, with many of those buys dipping below your purchase price, you wonder if you did the right thing. Should you sell the whole lot now, while the going is good?

Stop right there and think back to why you bought stocks in the first place. Was it because you hoped to double your money in six months? Or was it because you'll have a Rs 1 crore portfolio on retirement? If it was the latter, you should now be buying instead of selling.

Yes, the stocks you hold can sink further in the short term (next six months to a year), but selling them will leave you with no new avenues to meet your goals. Many investors who kept selling their stock and equity fund holdings in 2008 as the markets plunged all the way from 21,000 to 9,000, never had the nerve to re-invest that money at lower levels.

Switch to ‘safer' options

Most people seem to be quite comfortable with the risks of equity investing until they actually come face to face with them! Santhanam, an IT professional in his forties, wanted to build a portfolio of ‘high risk-high return' mutual funds, three months ago. We promptly suggested a few funds that invest in small-cap stocks. Today the portfolio sports a loss of 20 per cent. Santhanam says he wasn't prepared for this. Should he switch into safer fixed deposits which will give him 8 per cent a year?

Shifting money out of stocks or equity funds, after you have made losses on them is the worst thing you can do. By suffering a 20 per cent loss on his portfolio, Santhanam has already borne the brunt of equity risks. Why not stay put to reap its rewards?

In Santhanam's case the stock market has shaved 20 per cent off his wealth in just three months. However, if he switches the money into fixed deposits now, it is going to take him two and a half years just to recoup capital.

The only investment that can help you recoup losses suffered in equities is the equity market itself. So set aside a certain proportion of your savings towards equity investments (say 20 per cent) and don't lose your nerve if markets fall. When it does, buy stocks.

Scrounge for penny stocks

Okay, the market has fallen 10 per cent and most stocks are cheaper than they were just weeks ago. So what should you buy? For most of us, the first impulse is to scrounge for stocks trading at less than a magic figure of Rs 10.

After all, why should I buy 50 shares of ONGC at a stiff Rs 1,200 a share, when I can get 1,70,000 shares of the intriguing Cals Refineries, at 35 paise apiece for the same sum? Well, because ONGC has a running and thriving business in oil refining which makes it a much safer bet.

Blue-chips like ONGC may not multiply in a month, but they offer far greater certainty of long-term returns, than penny stocks like Cals Refineries. Therefore, while you can quite easily bet Rs 35,000 on ONGC if you have a Rs 2 lakh plus portfolio, you certainly shouldn't be investing that big a sum on a dark horse like Cals Refineries.

Wait for the bottom

If you are looking to invest after a market fall, don't wait for the market to ‘bottom' out. The ‘bottom' in any falling market phase is evident only in hindsight.

Sudhish, who started on his first job in January 2009 wanted to make a start on equity investing soon after receiving his first pay packet. The Sensex was hovering at 9,500 levels then. However, thoroughly psyched by predictions on television that the Sensex would head down to 8,000 or even 6,600 levels, he stayed away. Once the up move started, it became more and more difficult to take the plunge; he finally began investing at 14,000 Sensex!

If you are a long-term investor, don't make too fine a point of timing. When market commentators on television tell you that the Sensex has broken through a key ‘support' and is plunging towards the abyss, they are addressing traders who would like to make a quick buck over a day or a week. Not the retail investor who buys a stock for 5 or 10 years. Remember that market ‘forecasts' can change as quickly as the weather!

Try ‘shorting' stocks

Despite all the wise-sounding counsel on television, believe us, no one has a clue on where the markets are headed in the short term. That's why predictions about where the Sensex is headed over a trading day are so often wrong.

That's why you should never be tempted into ‘shorting' a falling market or stock. The problem with selling stocks that you don't own (short selling) is that the price has to fall immediately for you to make money on the trade.

When you buy a stock and it refuses to move up you can always hold on to it, in the hope that you will be proved right in a month or even a year's time. However, when you short-sell a stock, you don't have that luxury.

To square up the position; you will need to buy the stock at a higher price if need be. Shorting is a sure way to lose your shirt in a whimsical market.

Saturday, February 5, 2011

I have recommended a BUY on Amrit Banaspati @ Rs.114 /- ,(Old Report HERE)which is currently trading @ Rs.183/-.Company posted good result in the December quarter.Sales improved from Rs.224 Cr to Rs.297 Cr and net profit from Rs.2.42 Cr to Rs.8.5 Cr. EPS for nine month is Rs.20/- v/s Rs.7/- .Investors can book profit partially (50%) and HOLD the balance.

Thursday, February 3, 2011

Ashapura Minechem is one of the largest exporters of bauxite and bentonite from India .After a long period ,company posted an encouraging result in December quarter with sales of Rs.140 Cr v/s Rs.123 Cr and a net profit of Rs.13 Cr v/s a loss of Rs.19 Cr. Company is facing some legal issues with Maharashtra Government and some shipping agencies,also the changes in the mining policy of Gujarat government is a point to note. Keep an eye on these developments.Currently Ashapura Minechem is trading at Rs.32/-

Wednesday, February 2, 2011

NEULAND LABORATORIES - posted good result for the quarter ended December 2010.Sales improved from Rs.70 Cr to Rs.95 Cr and net PROFIT to Rs.4 Cr from a LOSS of Rs 6.6 Cr. Long term investors may consider a BUY at CMP Rs.113/-