Agreed. When cheap Android tablets start to undercut the iPad, then the market share will get eroded and margins compressed. That's just the way it goes.

Where are the cheap Android tablets going to come from exactly? And better yet, what Android fans are going to buy them? For Android tablet makers, it's going to be a serious catch-22. Android fans are demanding top-of-the-line specs (which IMO is a non sequitur in terms of a tablet device, but to each his own.) That doesn't come cheap. There's no way to blow the iPad 2 out of the water in terms of specs and still be cheaper.

But as more and more Android tablets are released with better specs then the IPad 2 (even the Xoom beats the IPad hardware in virtually every category, and better quad core units are on the way) and almost certainly lower prices, the IPad 2 is going to take a big hit.

So are you the one who will talk to each and everyone of the hundreds of millions of 'ignorant' non-geeks out there to let them know that Android tablet hardware beats the iPad 2 in every category, and that the smoother, more satisfying user experience of the iPad 2 is a) not as important as RAM and CPU specs and b) just a figment of their imagination?

The era of geeks determining which tech products are purchased by the masses is over.

Oh and by the way, how convenient you refused to mention that Macs are the fastest growing personal computer brand out there.

How does the non-business geek invest in tech stocks? Is it simple as going to a website? What should I look out for and how much cash is reasonable to invest in a stock like Apple and still consider it disposable? I mean, for the investment to be worth it how many shares would I have to look at buying?

Apple is a screaming BUY. Pristine balance sheet + 40% margins + tremendous growth. Call TD Ameritrade or Charles Schwab and they will set you up to buy APPL stock, its as easy as setting up a checking/savings account at a bank

The problem for Apple in maintaining dominance in tablets is that if they can't make enough for everyone who wants one, it will give a major boost the soon-to-be bonanza of Android tablets. I can't see them maintaining this close to this kind of market share in the long run, but the market will be so big, it is still going to quadruple the size of the company.

Man, if I believe that, I should go buy more stock right now, shouldn't I?

hope the "old days" of lack of inventory while others catch up won't affect future sales perhaps people will just accept as in the last many introductions, "sell out" and stay loyal
i would
but apple must respond quickly to inventory issues
also is apple facing a fragmentation issue, with all the combinations available
i wonder if there is a stat for which are the most popular #1 #2 #3
i also wonder how many were just bought to sell on ebay or europe

Apple is a screaming BUY. Pristine balance sheet + 40% margins + tremendous growth. Call TD Ameritrade or Charles Schwab and they will set you up to buy APPL stock, its as easy as setting up a checking/savings account at a bank

The only thing stopping me adding more AAPL at the moment is their huge pile of cash.

Don't get me wrong, I think it's a positive thing to hold a decent amount, and I wait with interest to see what they do with it, but it's the sort of thing that no matter what Apple spend it on, the market will probably over-react and send their stock down, and that could represent an opportunity to buy at something of a discount.

1) Apple were never ever higher than 10% of the market in computers. The Mac was a disaster. Even before the release of the IBM PC, the Apple II was a minority in the market - but it was a tiny market.

Actually, there was a brief period when the Apple II line bested the TRS-80 (the king of the hill at the time); alas, the IBM PC came out shortly after that and the rest, as they say, is history.

also is apple facing a fragmentation issue, with all the combinations available
i wonder if there is a stat for which are the most popular #1 #2 #3
i also wonder how many were just bought to sell on ebay or europe

Even Apple is not immune to fragmentation as they upgrade iOS and iOS devices. There will always be older models that cannot do everything the newer models do. If they want to avoid this problem, they can do what MS did with Windows and turn iOS into a big fat blob of code.

The issue is manageability. Apple juggling with 3 or 4 versions of a product to support with a centralized software update system is far, far more customer friendly that the anarchic system of multiple carriers, multiple manufacturers and multiple update channels that plagues Android.

Apple once had a tremendous lead in personal computers, now they have 3-4% of a market dominated by Microsoft Windows (92+%). Only a couple of years ago Apple seemed to have a totally insurmountable lead in smartphones, today the IPhone is #3 in the US and #4 in the world, and Android, which nobody took seriously only a year ago, is number one in the world (both in sales and total units in use). Apple is the clear leader in a market which had essentially zero competitors until about a week ago (when the Xoom came out) and it is clear that Motorola pushed the release date earlier then they wanted (Flash won't be working until this Friday and the SD card and 4G even later then that) in order to get in before the IPAd 2). But as more and more Android tablets are released with better specs then the IPad 2 (even the Xoom beats the IPad hardware in virtually every category, and better quad core units are on the way) and almost certainly lower prices, the IPad 2 is going to take a big hit. Remember that Android is free and open and works very well, and even one of those criteria would make Android tablets a serious threat to Apple.

Look Jobs wouldn't continue to harp about how fragmented and silly Android was if he wasn't worried about it. He isn't worried about Windows mobile 7 or RIM, because they suck so bad, but if Android phone and tablet sales continue to increase at their present rate (about 900% in just one year) in a few years Apple will be about as relevant in mobile computing as they are in presently in PCs. I would love to see Apple remain a serious force in mobile computing, but IPods are going to disappear soon (it just doesn't make sense to have a separate device that doesn't do anything that any smartphone can do), Macs are a tiny niche market, Iphones are losing market share rapidly to Android, and there are finally going to be competitors to IPad. If Apple doesn't open their OS to other companies then IOS will whither away, that's just a fact.

dude, get back on your PC site full of worms and viruses , seems like some of them leaped from your crappy windoze pc onto your BRAIN WTF!!??? are u stupid?? ANDROID CRAP is for geeks who want to be bothered with 'TAILORING' their experience on a hand held device -- the average person could care LESS or give a S#!T about stupid SPECS... where are the 100,000 Plus apps or the smooth coupling of software & hardware??? you are DUMB SCHUCK who is obviously a HATER and not really seeing the FOREST for the TREES (or maybe you smoking some really good trees) but be serious man--

MARKET WATCH named Steve jobs CEO of the DECADE--

APPLE is sitting on over $54 Billion DOLLARS of CASH - can you count???

Where are the cheap Android tablets going to come from exactly? And better yet, what Android fans are going to buy them? For Android tablet makers, it's going to be a serious catch-22. Android fans are demanding top-of-the-line specs (which IMO is a non sequitur in terms of a tablet device, but to each his own.) That doesn't come cheap. There's no way to blow the iPad 2 out of the water in terms of specs and still be cheaper.

Android fans are all about the specs. They raised so much dust just about how Xoom is more superior due to the extra 512MB of RAM, just to get a bucket of cold water in the face after all the reviews and benchmarks showed them that the iPad 2 has smoked the Xoom.

Now they are going to be quiet until the next Android tablet comes out in 6 - 12 months, and then they'll start barging about how their precious tablet is much more superior.

One thing I found funny is that the thickness of the Xoom is the same as the iPad 1, down to a mm.... Who is copying who? I'll give the competition six months to an year to catchup with the software and hardware updates.

Call me an optimist, but I hope that in 5 years (or less) there will be no "clear majority" in the tablet space.

WebOS, iOS, Android, Bberry (if they can get their act together), Windows8, and hopefully a handful we haven't heard of yet.

Steve Jobs said we're living in the post PC era. Something I agree with, but I'm hoping it goes further. I don't want a single OS to dictate the market like it currently does with PC's, no matter who makes that OS or how amazing it might be.

Multiple competitive platforms will mean that developers and content creators will start thinking about how to make their apps work on the web, and it will force current product manufacturers to open up their devices to this new market (for example, allowing an HTML5 based app to have access to the GPU, like some new browsers are offering). It will mean that smaller companies with really unique ideas on hardware/software will be able to create something without worrying it will be DOA because too few devs are willing to devote the time to port their apps over to native code.

I don't think native apps will go away, at least in the short term. But I think "Universal" applications will become more important.

Post PC is all about making the "computer" actually personal. something to fit your lifestyle, your wants and needs. NO single OS, Hardware design, or app platform will be able to satisfy everyone, and it shouldn't try to. If you try mastering EVERYTHING, you won't master anything.

For me? I want a tablet that's a bit more like a computer than most current offerings. For my brother? He would be happy with something like an iPad. My dad needs something that can take some abuse and is really resistant to dust and grime and can (hopefully) fit in his pocket.

Why should any of us feel the need to all compromise on the SAME type of device, simply because it's so big, devs won't look elseware?

The problem for Apple in maintaining dominance in tablets is that if they can't make enough for everyone who wants one, it will give a major boost the soon-to-be bonanza of Android tablets. I can't see them maintaining this close to this kind of market share in the long run, but the market will be so big, it is still going to quadruple the size of the company.

Man, if I believe that, I should go buy more stock right now, shouldn't I?

I don't think it's a problem. The important thing to realise is how manufacturing has changed since the "Mac vs. PC" era. When the original Mac was competing with IBM compatible PCs, all the companies, including Apple, had their own manufacturing facilities. The reason the IBM compatible PCs won was because all the manufacturers combined had more manufacturing clout than Apple alone could ever muster. That's no longer true. In fact, the exact opposite is now true. Everybody outsources manufacturing, nobody has their own factories and everybody is competing for the same slots at manufacturing facilities in China. Under these circumstances one very large company has a huge advantage over many smaller companies. The same is true when it comes to purchasing components. That's why Apple retained over 70% of the market with the iPod. The smaller companies could not compete. A large, cash rich company like Apple can very easily lock them out now.

The phone market is different. The main barriers to entry in the phone market are the carriers and it's a very difficult place to sell a product. Apple is still new to the phone market. The companies that have had success with Android are long-term incumbents. Samsung and HTC both have established relationships with carriers in every territory and have had them since long before Apple entered the market. It would have been very easy for them to ship Android phones everywhere, very quickly. That's why we saw such a dramatic spike in Android sales. There are also markets where prepaid phones are more popular than contracts where Apple has had difficulty competing on cost (an issue they're expected to address this year). So there's a lot of friction involved in rolling a product out in the phone space. But the iPad exists in the same retail space as the iPod and Apple has a tremendous retail advantage over most of its competitors. Probably the only company that can really compete with Apple is Samsung. Samsung has access to components, manufacturing and has an existing retail presence, including its own stores. But in this case they're directly competing with Apple rather than selling in those places where Apple has created demand but doesn't have its product available (as was the case with Verizon in the US before the Verizon iPhone was released), so they'll need to do much more to compete. Android 3.0 doesn't appear to be up to the challenge.

Personally I think this will play out just like the iPod. It's possible Apple will retain an even higher percentage of the tablet market because tablets are more difficult to build and there's stronger lock-in (if you switch to a different manufacturers tablet you lose your investment in apps and books and potentially music and movies).

I was among the first to order at 4:03 in the am EST and I still get "not yet shipped" at the store....grrr

I went on a quest to find one on Friday and Saturday only to run in to lines that were bigger than what the store stock was. Best buy and at&t were completely sold out in a matter of minutes, including accessories.

If they had a million at hand I'm sure they sold it. If not, they underestimated demand big time

"Amazing" is pretty lame though... isn't that a 90's cliche word?

The fandroids are green with envy and will probably try to spin this as iSheep and all that nonsense. The difference with Android phones was that they were subsidized by the carriers and they had tons of 2 for 1 sales. Tablets are different, and the way the android offerings are, many parties are involved and that way they all want a piece of the pie. Price will be an issue for a long time to come.

Apple once had a tremendous lead in personal computers, now they have 3-4% of a market dominated by Microsoft Windows (92+%). Only a couple of years ago Apple seemed to have a totally insurmountable lead in smartphones, today the IPhone is #3 in the US and #4 in the world, and Android, which nobody took seriously only a year ago, is number one in the world (both in sales and total units in use). Apple is the clear leader in a market which had essentially zero competitors until about a week ago (when the Xoom came out) and it is clear that Motorola pushed the release date earlier then they wanted (Flash won't be working until this Friday and the SD card and 4G even later then that) in order to get in before the IPAd 2). But as more and more Android tablets are released with better specs then the IPad 2 (even the Xoom beats the IPad hardware in virtually every category, and better quad core units are on the way) and almost certainly lower prices, the IPad 2 is going to take a big hit. Remember that Android is free and open and works very well, and even one of those criteria would make Android tablets a serious threat to Apple.

Look Jobs wouldn't continue to harp about how fragmented and silly Android was if he wasn't worried about it. He isn't worried about Windows mobile 7 or RIM, because they suck so bad, but if Android phone and tablet sales continue to increase at their present rate (about 900% in just one year) in a few years Apple will be about as relevant in mobile computing as they are in presently in PCs. I would love to see Apple remain a serious force in mobile computing, but IPods are going to disappear soon (it just doesn't make sense to have a separate device that doesn't do anything that any smartphone can do), Macs are a tiny niche market, Iphones are losing market share rapidly to Android, and there are finally going to be competitors to IPad. If Apple doesn't open their OS to other companies then IOS will whither away, that's just a fact.

1) Windows isnt a personal computer, its an OS licensed to any and all vendors, including Apples Macs. Apple has been and still is the most profitable PC maker on the planet and they increasing this lead each quarter.

2) The iPhone which didnt even exist on the market 4 years ago has been the most profitable handset in the world for at least the last 2 years. You really think marketshare by units is more important than profits to companies?

3) Android only exists as it does because of the iPhone so you should be thankful for Apple making this stagnant market active again instead of hating on Apple for no other reason than and innate dislike for anything or anyone who is on top.

4) So your argument includes that the Xoom was shipped unfinished with HW that doesnt actually work? Really?!

5) The Xooms better HW on this spec sheet of yours isnt turning out to be true in real world or synthetic tests. What do you think actually matters to the consumer? A device that works as expected or a device that is barely faster than a year old iPad with a single-core older CPU and GPU design but looks good when youre copying and pasting the specs to strangers youre trying to impress while playing WoW?

6) Xoom will have a lower price? Good one!

7) WP7 trounces Android in pretty much every UI aspect. MS has done a great job with WP7 and its pretty slick for their initial release. The biggest issues will be resolved in an upcoming update, yet when will Android get its issues resolved across its hundreds of devices?

8) That open OS. Wasnt it Android that sent out a kill switch on some apps last week? So much for openness.

Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"

I think people are forgetting here that the average consumer, especially in Europe, I can't speak for the US, does not know anything about the huge advantages that an iPad has over the competition at the moment.

Many consumers in Europe are going to walk into Carphone Warehouse or PCWorld and buy a crap android tablet that is cheaper than an iPad. I am talking the lower end of the spectrum in android tablets. They do not see the benefits the iPad has because they can't be bothered to look deeper. Proof of this is I know 6 or 7 people that really want an iPad and have just been and bought a 1st gen one, despite me saying that the iPad 2 is much better. They're not even bothered about exchanging it when iPad 2 arrives, they would rather have the £100 back.

For a lot of people a touch screen tablet is going to be a touch screen tablet whether it is an iPad, Android tablet or TouchPad.

dude, get back on your PC site full of worms and viruses , seems like some of them leaped from your crappy windoze pc onto your BRAIN WTF!!??? are u stupid?? ANDROID CRAP is for geeks who want to be bothered with 'TAILORING' their experience on a hand held device -- the average person could care LESS or give a S#!T about stupid SPECS... where are the 100,000 Plus apps or the smooth coupling of software & hardware??? you are DUMB SCHUCK who is obviously a HATER and not really seeing the FOREST for the TREES (or maybe you smoking some really good trees) but be serious man--

MARKET WATCH named Steve jobs CEO of the DECADE--

APPLE is sitting on over $54 Billion DOLLARS of CASH - can you count???

Apple once had a tremendous lead in personal computers, now they have 3-4% of a market dominated by Microsoft Windows (92+%). Only a couple of years ago Apple seemed to have a totally insurmountable lead in smartphones, today the IPhone is #3 in the US and #4 in the world, and Android, which nobody took seriously only a year ago, is number one in the world (both in sales and total units in use). Apple is the clear leader in a market which had essentially zero competitors until about a week ago (when the Xoom came out) and it is clear that Motorola pushed the release date earlier then they wanted (Flash won't be working until this Friday and the SD card and 4G even later then that) in order to get in before the IPAd 2). But as more and more Android tablets are released with better specs then the IPad 2 (even the Xoom beats the IPad hardware in virtually every category, and better quad core units are on the way) and almost certainly lower prices, the IPad 2 is going to take a big hit. Remember that Android is free and open and works very well, and even one of those criteria would make Android tablets a serious threat to Apple.

Look Jobs wouldn't continue to harp about how fragmented and silly Android was if he wasn't worried about it. He isn't worried about Windows mobile 7 or RIM, because they suck so bad, but if Android phone and tablet sales continue to increase at their present rate (about 900% in just one year) in a few years Apple will be about as relevant in mobile computing as they are in presently in PCs. I would love to see Apple remain a serious force in mobile computing, but IPods are going to disappear soon (it just doesn't make sense to have a separate device that doesn't do anything that any smartphone can do), Macs are a tiny niche market, Iphones are losing market share rapidly to Android, and there are finally going to be competitors to IPad. If Apple doesn't open their OS to other companies then IOS will whither away, that's just a fact.

No Apple never had a tremendous lead in personal computers. Even in the Apple ][ days they weren't much over 20% of the market. The whole sky-can-fall analogy falls apart right there with the death of the opening assumption.

Jobs is harping because it is foot-on-the-throat time. Grind the competition into irrelevance with a very good product and relentlessly illustrate why Apple's iPad is better than all the rest. Putting your foot to the competitions throat in this manner is very legal. Apple will have to be a little more careful in the tablet space if they continue with this level of success though as it will start to trend into monopoly territory.

Foot-on-the-throat by out innovating the competition will still be legal, but there are other things they may not be able to do that they don't have to worry about at all right now.

Apple once had a tremendous lead in personal computers, now they have 3-4% of a market dominated by Microsoft Windows (92+%). Only a couple of years ago Apple seemed to have a totally insurmountable lead in smartphones, today the IPhone is #3 in the US and #4 in the world, and Android, which nobody took seriously only a year ago, is number one in the world (both in sales and total units in use). Apple is the clear leader in a market which had essentially zero competitors until about a week ago (when the Xoom came out) and it is clear that Motorola pushed the release date earlier then they wanted (Flash won't be working until this Friday and the SD card and 4G even later then that) in order to get in before the IPAd 2). But as more and more Android tablets are released with better specs then the IPad 2 (even the Xoom beats the IPad hardware in virtually every category, and better quad core units are on the way) and almost certainly lower prices, the IPad 2 is going to take a big hit. Remember that Android is free and open and works very well, and even one of those criteria would make Android tablets a serious threat to Apple.

Look Jobs wouldn't continue to harp about how fragmented and silly Android was if he wasn't worried about it. He isn't worried about Windows mobile 7 or RIM, because they suck so bad, but if Android phone and tablet sales continue to increase at their present rate (about 900% in just one year) in a few years Apple will be about as relevant in mobile computing as they are in presently in PCs. I would love to see Apple remain a serious force in mobile computing, but IPods are going to disappear soon (it just doesn't make sense to have a separate device that doesn't do anything that any smartphone can do), Macs are a tiny niche market, Iphones are losing market share rapidly to Android, and there are finally going to be competitors to IPad. If Apple doesn't open their OS to other companies then IOS will whither away, that's just a fact.

Basically, that's nonsense. Apples marketshare in computers has risen every year for a good 6 years. At one point, it was down to 1% internationally, and 2.8% here in the USA. Now, it's 4.5% internationally, and a good 10% here. That's a significant rise, and it's continuing. The bad old days are behind Apple.

The big rise in Android sales one year is because they started out that year with a very bad, poorly selling phone in the USa only, using the smallest of the big national carriers, T-Mobile. Sales were very small. Then they had a couple dozen phones from a half dozen manufacturers on all four carriers here, as wall as a large number of carriers worldwide.

So, of course sales went up 880% that year! They started from almost nothing. But that vast sales rise is long over. Apple is mow on two carriers here, and you have to remember, they were on only one. We'll see how the numbers change as Apple gets in more carriers over the world.

There's no guarantee that more Android tablets will take over the world. No evidence even. And it isn't Apple that started talking about Android fragmentation. There's been plenty written about it both before and still.

It's interesting that 89% of iPhone users will get another iPhone, but only 73% of Android users.

I think people are forgetting here that the average consumer, especially in Europe, I can't speak for the US, does not know anything about the huge advantages that an iPad has over the competition at the moment.

Many consumers in Europe are going to walk into Carphone Warehouse or PCWorld and buy a crap android tablet that is cheaper than an iPad. I am talking the lower end of the spectrum in android tablets. They do not see the benefits the iPad has because they can't be bothered to look deeper. Proof of this is I know 6 or 7 people that really want an iPad and have just been and bought a 1st gen one, despite me saying that the iPad 2 is much better. They're not even bothered about exchanging it when iPad 2 arrives, they would rather have the £100 back.

For a lot of people a touch screen tablet is going to be a touch screen tablet whether it is an iPad, Android tablet or TouchPad.

Uh no! not at all. Europeans are very gadget oriented and when I took my ipad1 there last spring, everyone knew about it even if it wasn't available in any market there, except the gray market! They actually warned me to watch out and some offered to buy it from me as high as 1200 Euros.

Where are the cheap Android tablets going to come from exactly? And better yet, what Android fans are going to buy them? For Android tablet makers, it's going to be a serious catch-22. Android fans are demanding top-of-the-line specs (which IMO is a non sequitur in terms of a tablet device, but to each his own.) That doesn't come cheap. There's no way to blow the iPad 2 out of the water in terms of specs and still be cheaper.

The cheap tablets are going to come from supply and demand. A lot of folks will try coming out with products, find they don't sell, and sell out their inventory at a loss and get written off. Sucks for the manufacturer. But enough manufacturers do that and you have a flood of cheap, money-losing Android 3.0 tablets that some folks might snap up.

He thinks competing tablets will capture 39% of the market in 2011? Unlikely. I would be amazed if copycats even acheived 5% of the market.

No doubt he's being conservative with the estimate, which is prudent. Looks much better for Apple when they beat expectations. But they won't have 95% of the market either.

There are some parts of the world where Apple either doesn't effectively compete in or doesn't have a strong presence (areas of China for instance). Some people will be content to get something that costs $150 and is complete garbage. Some people just aren't going to like what Apple is offering, and don't see the iPad advantages as such. For instance I have a coworker that bought one of those win7 Asus Eeee slates. It costs $1200 but it does run a desktop OS and has a core i5 cpu and more ram/storage. Sure its a beast, way too heavy, thick, and craptastic battery life (3 hours lol), but he doesn't care about those issues, or the fact that his so-called tablet is just a notebook sans keyboard and trackpad. =)

I think its fair to estimate that Apple will have 80-90% market share at the end of the year though. 75% if more than less people opted for either really cheap or overpriced tablets, but I would bet that Apple will end up somewhere in the 82-85% marketshare total and hold that for the foreseeable future.

I was among the first to order at 4:03 in the am EST and I still get "not yet shipped" at the store....grrr

I went on a quest to find one on Friday and Saturday only to run in to lines that were bigger than what the store stock was. Best buy and at&t were completely sold out in a matter of minutes, including accessories.

If they had a million at hand I'm sure they sold it. If not, they underestimated demand big time

"Amazing" is pretty lame though... isn't that a 90's cliche word?

The fandroids are green with envy and will probably try to spin this as iSheep and all that nonsense. The difference with Android phones was that they were subsidized by the carriers and they had tons of 2 for 1 sales. Tablets are different, and the way the android offerings are, many parties are involved and that way they all want a piece of the pie. Price will be an issue for a long time to come.

I was on the web early Friday morning also, and decided not to order then, because with all the "hype" about all the new outlets, I made the dumb assumption that I could pick one up over the weekend. Obviously not true. Local Target store only received 5 units! Walmart received none on Friday. AT&T sold out. Apple store sold out within a couple of hours Friday night. To my amazement the Apple store says (as others are reporting) "No, we don't know when we'll get another shipment; and we don't know what will be in it, when we do get it." This just amazes me. Today they said (Apple Store) "Your best bet is to order on the web." So I did - with 4 week delivery! Is Apple still saying they're going to begin marketing in 26 more countries on March 26th? Two or three weeks before mine is to ship??? I must say that it begins to look like lots of marketing hype to build excitement, rather than a real distribution strategy. I love my Apple products, but I think they've blown this one.

The only thing stopping me adding more AAPL at the moment is their huge pile of cash.

Don't get me wrong, I think it's a positive thing to hold a decent amount, and I wait with interest to see what they do with it, but it's the sort of thing that no matter what Apple spend it on, the market will probably over-react and send their stock down, and that could represent an opportunity to buy at something of a discount.

Wouldn't it be just terrible for you if Apple declares a one time dividend of $30 per share as of some time of record for share ownership, and you were still dithering over their cash?

He thinks competing tablets will capture 39% of the market in 2011? Unlikely. I would be amazed if copycats even acheived 5% of the market.

Not if you count all the sub 200$ cheap android 2.2 tablets out there. They are selling a good numbers of those. High-end tablets are going to have a rough time, but the cheap stuff is always selling well.

Off topic: This year will mark the 5th iteration of the iPhone. At some point we have to expect Apple to diversify the line, even though that would mean creating a new fork in the iOS/CocoaTouch UI. The iPod isn’t a good measure since they didn’t share an App Store or SDK.

Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"

Not if you count all the sub 200$ cheap android 2.2 tablets out there. They are selling a good numbers of those. High-end tablets are going to have a rough time, but the cheap stuff is always selling well.

I would be surprised if those cheap tablets, combined, sell more units than the iPad 2.

Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"

Where are the cheap Android tablets going to come from exactly? And better yet, what Android fans are going to buy them? For Android tablet makers, it's going to be a serious catch-22. Android fans are demanding top-of-the-line specs (which IMO is a non sequitur in terms of a tablet device, but to each his own.) That doesn't come cheap. There's no way to blow the iPad 2 out of the water in terms of specs and still be cheaper.

Exactly! As for the people who do buy the cheap tablets, will they be satisfied with them when most of the apps they want don't work because they're so weak and when the build quality is so cheap? If anything, it'll give Android a worse reputation than Windows!

What can a cheap tablet do that'll be adequate? Perhaps reading, but if people are in the market for a cheap device for reading, they'll probably go with a Kindle or Nook.

I was on the web early Friday morning also, and decided not to order then, because with all the "hype" about all the new outlets, I made the dumb assumption that I could pick one up over the weekend. Obviously not true. Local Target store only received 5 units! Walmart received none on Friday. AT&T sold out. Apple store sold out within a couple of hours Friday night. To my amazement the Apple store says (as others are reporting) "No, we don't know when we'll get another shipment; and we don't know what will be in it, when we do get it." This just amazes me. Today they said (Apple Store) "Your best bet is to order on the web." So I did - with 4 week delivery! Is Apple still saying they're going to begin marketing in 26 more countries on March 26th? Two or three weeks before mine is to ship??? I must say that it begins to look like lots of marketing hype to build excitement, rather than a real distribution strategy. I love my Apple products, but I think they've blown this one.

Foxconn can only make so many. They're still ramping up, and that takes months. There's no way Apple could have waited any longer with other tablets showing up.

Android fans are all about the specs. They raised so much dust just about how Xoom is more superior due to the extra 512MB of RAM, just to get a bucket of cold water in the face after all the reviews and benchmarks showed them that the iPad 2 has smoked the Xoom.

Now they are going to be quiet until the next Android tablet comes out in 6 - 12 months, and then they'll start barging about how their precious tablet is much more superior.

One thing I found funny is that the thickness of the Xoom is the same as the iPad 1, down to a mm.... Who is copying who? I'll give the competition six months to an year to catchup with the software and hardware updates.

Yeah, I can guarantee the next significant Android tablet will be a lot thinner now, haha!

Only a couple of years ago Apple seemed to have a totally insurmountable lead in smartphones, today the IPhone is #3 in the US and #4 in the world, and Android, which nobody took seriously only a year ago, is number one in the world (both in sales and total units in use).

The problem is that the smartphone market is a hyper growing market. Apple said it would be happy with _1%_ of the entire (dumb, feature, and smart phone market). It now is the largest maker of phones (by profit) in the world, and makes more $$ than all android manufacturers combined. I think they will be happy staying there.

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Apple is the clear leader in a market which had essentially zero competitors until about a week ago (when the Xoom came out) and it is clear that Motorola pushed the release date earlier then they wanted (Flash won't be working until this Friday and the SD card and 4G even later then that) in order to get in before the IPAd 2). But as more and more Android tablets are released with better specs then the IPad 2 (even the Xoom beats the IPad hardware in virtually every category

user experience is the only category that matters to consumer purchasers... This is all about 'just works' vs the old windows model of 'mass configuration.' You're now in the 'billions' of units sold, and the critical thing is 'the next time I make a call, the next time I connect to the Internet... the next time install software.... it has to '_just_work_'

Of course, it doesn't matter that Apple blows away the competition in graphics performance (you don't bend pipes on tablet.... but you do move voxels....

You don't see Apple maintaining that cost/performance lead? How do you see any manufacturer getting the sophistication of OS/chipdesign/FWdesign/mass-production to a point that their costs are well below Apples? Samsung maybe.... but how does that make for developer to take advantage across the entire android line.

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, and better quad core units are on the way)

and so is time travel and unicorns. But really, Apple has an advantage in that it can also add quad processors optimized for only their code and systems [nice to be a chip and HW designer as well as the FW and OS coder]

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[....] Remember that Android is free and open and works very well, and even one of those criteria would make Android tablets a serious threat to Apple.

MS was not free, closed and didn't work well, and it beat Apple in 92.... Linux is free, open and works very well, and has what % of the PC market? Exactly how you justify that statement with logic, as the facts seem to be confusing? Either argue one point or the other. Free/Open/Good will take over the world... just like...? wait... I have no example of that... Apple will fail just like when MS pushed 'free/open/good' Windows... Wait... it wasn't? Hmmmm... Apple will fail because they can't keep up.... err, what... this is 7.5 9X faster than it's last device? errr.... Apple is too expensive! Wait? no 10" device has been released with a 2 year cost of ownership less than the iPad?

Hmmm... Exactly why will Apple _fail_?

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Look Jobs wouldn't continue to harp about how fragmented and silly Android was if he wasn't worried about it.

Of course he's worried about it. He has no monopoly on the market. :-). Apple must innovate or suffer the consequences. btw... I'm worried about mosquitos... am I afraid they will kill me... only if I'm not constantly making sure that the risk is minimized. And the best way to beat mosquitos is to move faster than they can.

Key point. Apple is laser focused in 2011 (more like focused on 2013) vs 1990. Tell me exactly what one business Google is in? Linux? Samsung? HP? RIM? When it comes to _PERSONAL COMPUTING_ Apple seems to be the only one that has a singular focus. That to me is why companies like Oracle, Starbucks, and McDonalds succeed.

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[....]if Android phone and tablet sales continue to increase at their present rate (about 900% in just one year).

and how do you see carriers [the impetus of android on the phone] being able to sell a non-phone device on a 900% year over year growth rate? On their good looks? Face it... you've got 30 flavors of Android, across 10 HW vendors, and countless carriers and 'care and feeding' ecosystems. You've got 3 flavors of iOS now, across 1 HW vendor, with 1 standalone ecosystem (mobile me, ITMS, appstore) . I think Apple will hold it's own at 50%+ of the 'personal/portable smart device' [internet enabled phones, media players, and 'tablets'], and is the major HW manufacturer in each category. Apple has a physical and online retail presence, a viable ecommerce system arguably better than Amazon, a better supply chain, and brand recognition, and a unified customer experience process. Name one other store that can do that? Best Buy? ATT? Fry's? Amazon? Ubuntu? Froogle?

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in a few years Apple will be about as relevant in mobile computing as they are in presently in PCs. I would love to see Apple remain a serious force in mobile computing, [.... but ]If Apple doesn't open their OS to other companies then IOS will whither away, that's just a fact.

That's just an opinion. It has no basis in fact, as you proved yourself with the Microsoft PC vs Linux argument.

Apple once had a tremendous lead in personal computers, now they have 3-4% of a market dominated by Microsoft Windows (92+%). Only a couple of years ago Apple seemed to have a totally insurmountable lead in smartphones, today the IPhone is #3 in the US and #4 in the world, and Android, which nobody took seriously only a year ago, is number one in the world (both in sales and total units in use). Apple is the clear leader in a market which had essentially zero competitors until about a week ago (when the Xoom came out) and it is clear that Motorola pushed the release date earlier then they wanted (Flash won't be working until this Friday and the SD card and 4G even later then that) in order to get in before the IPAd 2). But as more and more Android tablets are released with better specs then the IPad 2 (even the Xoom beats the IPad hardware in virtually every category, and better quad core units are on the way) and almost certainly lower prices, the IPad 2 is going to take a big hit. Remember that Android is free and open and works very well, and even one of those criteria would make Android tablets a serious threat to Apple.

Look Jobs wouldn't continue to harp about how fragmented and silly Android was if he wasn't worried about it. He isn't worried about Windows mobile 7 or RIM, because they suck so bad, but if Android phone and tablet sales continue to increase at their present rate (about 900% in just one year) in a few years Apple will be about as relevant in mobile computing as they are in presently in PCs. I would love to see Apple remain a serious force in mobile computing, but IPods are going to disappear soon (it just doesn't make sense to have a separate device that doesn't do anything that any smartphone can do), Macs are a tiny niche market, Iphones are losing market share rapidly to Android, and there are finally going to be competitors to IPad. If Apple doesn't open their OS to other companies then IOS will whither away, that's just a fact.

I was on the web early Friday morning also, and decided not to order then, because with all the "hype" about all the new outlets, I made the dumb assumption that I could pick one up over the weekend. Obviously not true. Local Target store only received 5 units! Walmart received none on Friday. AT&T sold out. Apple store sold out within a couple of hours Friday night. To my amazement the Apple store says (as others are reporting) "No, we don't know when we'll get another shipment; and we don't know what will be in it, when we do get it." This just amazes me. Today they said (Apple Store) "Your best bet is to order on the web." So I did - with 4 week delivery! Is Apple still saying they're going to begin marketing in 26 more countries on March 26th? Two or three weeks before mine is to ship??? I must say that it begins to look like lots of marketing hype to build excitement, rather than a real distribution strategy. I love my Apple products, but I think they've blown this one.

I think you just nailed it. They are probably holding stock so they can launch it internationally on the 26th. It would be silly of them to hold stock just for hype. They'd probably want the sales! I do think they have supply issues for the screens as I heard from people who buy them for repairs.

Only if Apple rests on its laurels. The thing that concerns me however, if the iPad does indeed go on to dominate the tablety market, is when the cries of "monopoly" will start. Any company that has 80%+ share of a market will surely attract the attention of government stooges. The assumption is that no company can be so good as to dominate a market legally and legitimately. "All corporations are evil" is the anti-business battle cry.

Apple once had a tremendous lead in personal computers, now they have 3-4% of a market dominated by Microsoft Windows (92+%). Only a couple of years ago Apple seemed to have a totally insurmountable lead in smartphones, today the IPhone is #3 in the US and #4 in the world, and Android, which nobody took seriously only a year ago, is number one in the world (both in sales and total units in use). Apple is the clear leader in a market which had essentially zero competitors until about a week ago (when the Xoom came out) and it is clear that Motorola pushed the release date earlier then they wanted (Flash won't be working until this Friday and the SD card and 4G even later then that) in order to get in before the IPAd 2). But as more and more Android tablets are released with better specs then the IPad 2 (even the Xoom beats the IPad hardware in virtually every category, and better quad core units are on the way) and almost certainly lower prices, the IPad 2 is going to take a big hit. Remember that Android is free and open and works very well, and even one of those criteria would make Android tablets a serious threat to Apple.

Look Jobs wouldn't continue to harp about how fragmented and silly Android was if he wasn't worried about it. He isn't worried about Windows mobile 7 or RIM, because they suck so bad, but if Android phone and tablet sales continue to increase at their present rate (about 900% in just one year) in a few years Apple will be about as relevant in mobile computing as they are in presently in PCs. I would love to see Apple remain a serious force in mobile computing, but IPods are going to disappear soon (it just doesn't make sense to have a separate device that doesn't do anything that any smartphone can do), Macs are a tiny niche market, Iphones are losing market share rapidly to Android, and there are finally going to be competitors to IPad. If Apple doesn't open their OS to other companies then IOS will whither away, that's just a fact.

What you are forgetting is that it is all about the money, and Apple makes the most money in computers, media players and tablets whether they dominate marketshare or not.

Apple once had a tremendous lead in personal computers, now they have 3-4% of a market dominated by Microsoft Windows (92+%).

Apple never had a lead in the Pc market, it got own from the start by MS-DOS

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Originally Posted by captbilly

Only a couple of years ago Apple seemed to have a totally insurmountable lead in smartphones, today the IPhone is #3 in the US and #4 in the world

Smartphone was dominated by RIM, where are you getting your numbers from?!?

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Originally Posted by captbilly

But as more and more Android tablets are released with better specs then the IPad 2 (even the Xoom beats the IPad hardware in virtually every category, and better quad core units are on the way)

Not according to the benchmarks I have seen. In fact, the ipad 2 beats the crap out of the Xoom in every test they ran

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Originally Posted by captbilly

Look Jobs wouldn't continue to harp about how fragmented and silly Android was if he wasn't worried about it.

That is true, SF does seem to worry about Android, and this is why they are firing on all cylinders in hardware performance, software and prices. They want to make sure they wont loose market share to cheap android hardware.

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Originally Posted by captbilly

in a few years Apple will be about as relevant in mobile computing as they are in presently in PCs.

Not going to happen has long has Apple fights back, this looks more like the ipod market all over again. Apple is freaking out at the idea of loosing a market again and they have a 60 billions cash pileup. Trust me, not going to happen.

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Originally Posted by captbilly

I would love to see Apple remain a serious force in mobile computing, but IPods are going to disappear soon (it just doesn't make sense to have a separate device that doesn't do anything that any smartphone can do)

Tell that to the 10 year old with a limited budget that just cant afford to pay a monthly fee.