David Ferrer has come back after a bit of a rest in very good shape. This is basically his home tournament. He has been serving well and playing quite aggressively, coming into the net more often than usual.

Alex Dolgopolov is looking in superb form and his variety and skill set has given his opponents headaches. He is also serving well which is quite important for him. I like his game. I just wish he could improve his second serve and be more consistent.

The key to this match will probably be Ferrer's return of serve. If Dolgopolov is not getting his first serve in, Ferrer can jump on Dolgopolov's second serve. Also Ferrer is extremely steady against lower ranked players. We've seen him get anxious in winning positions against top players like Nadal at Barcelona and rush his shots, but don't see that with the lower ranked players. All that said, if Alex can catch fire and serve and play consistently well with some of his unorthodox spin shots, it may unsettle David and in that situation, Alex might have a good chance.

But I'm going to go with Ferrer on this one. He's playing in his backyard, he's playing well, and I think he'll keep consistent pressure on Dolgopolov with his return of serve and eventually break Alex down. David has not lost to Alex on hard court, but Valencia plays relatively slow. I'll go with Ferrer in 3 sets:

I enjoy your match analyses, Masterclass, and this one is no exception. Thanks for summarising the lie of the land.

The magic of Dolgopolov's game is sufficient to sway me towards him in terms of what I'd like to happen. But lack of consistency is his Achilles heel. Ferrer, who has a determined attitude and as you point out, is a great returner, will be hard to unbalance.