NFL Week 16 Power Rankings

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Colin Kaepernick and Alex Smith went to the Super Bowl together last year. Now they’re both trying to get there while leading separate offenses. Kaepernick’s San Francisco 49ers and Smith’s Kansas City Chiefs may need to settle for wild-card berths, but their teams are peaking at the right time for the playoffs.

While Kaepernick has become a better passer with Michael Crabtree, MVP candidate Jamaal Charles continues to help make Smith look great.

That’s made the 49ers and Chiefs new top-five teams in this week’s Sporting News NFL power rankings:

Why they’re here: Every other Super Bowl contender seems to have some question marks. The Seahawks seem to have none with the league’s best record and are about to lock up the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs.

How they move down: They need to be shocked at home between now and the Super Bowl. They haven’t lost there since 2011, and finish the regular-season with two more in Seattle before it happens again in the playoffs.

What’s next: vs. Cardinals, when they will try to keep another strong NFC West team out of the playoffs.

Why they’re here: The Broncos got upset at home by the perfect San Diego offensive game plan, an effective ball-control running game that kept Peyton Manning off the field and a defense that won on third down.

How they move up: Given their weak remaining schedule, the Broncos will be ready to take advantage of any Seahawks misstep. But it’s more likely they stay No. 2 but tops in the AFC going into the playoffs.

How they move down: Stumble in an easy road game and let the Patriots get another chance at the AFC’s No. 1 seed.
What’s next: at Texans, against the surprise worst team in the AFC.

Why they’re here: The Panthers got a bonus with their grinding, defensive-minded home victory over the Jets, as they saw the Saints fall to the Rams around the same time. It means if they go 2-0, they will be the NFC South champions.

How they move up: Keep getting more from their running backs. Injuries and inconsistency have hampered them in the backfield, but there’s some rushing and receiving pop there (see DeAngelo Williams) that can be key at this time of year.

How they move down: If their secondary doesn’t remain aggressive. The Panthers get knocked on the back end, but they still have playmakers to support their front seven, led by Captain Munnerlyn. Their pass rush and linebacker coverage allows them to attack with defensive backs.

What’s next: vs. Saints, which becomes a near de facto division title game at home.

Why they’re here: The reigning NFC champions have become the hottest team in the NFL down the stretch, winning four consecutive games. Their defense and running game are givens, but now their passing game is back up to speed with Michael Crabtree as their No. 1 wideout again.

How they move up: The 49ers can’t do much to pad their status against reeling Atlanta at home on Monday night, but they do get another good tuneup at Arizona in Week 17.

How they move down: Have some lapses in pass defense. The Buccaneers hung around a little too long in the game last week. The back end is the one thing that’s weaker than last season.

What’s next: vs. Falcons, the final regular-season game at Candlestick Park.

Why they’re here: Great googly moogly, the Chiefs have exploded offensively (with some more help with defensive scores) to drop 101 points on overmatched Washington and Oakland the past two weeks. Alex Smith and Jamaal Charles have them rolling into the playoffs; now they need to do it against stiffer competition.

How they move up: Fire up the big plays against Indianapolis and San Diego to close the season. Those teams have talented offenses, so the Chiefs need to get a little more than Smith-to-Charles working.

How they move down: Keep being leaky defensively. The San Diego and Denver games earlier at Arrowhead were concerns, and when Oakland wasn’t coughing up the ball, it had success moving on scoring.

What’s next: vs. Colts, a possible preview of a first-round playoff matchup that would be played in Indy.

Why they’re here: The Saints proved their offensive and defensive struggles on the road weren’t just tied to playing outdoors, as they fell hard in a dome in St. Louis. They just don’t play as well up front away from New Orleans, putting more pressure on Drew Brees and seeing their run defense fall apart.

How they move up: It’s right in front of them to forget the Rams game and build up their road mojo against Carolina, a team they just beat up in New Orleans two weeks ago.

How they move down: Keep letting Brees get rattled in a hostile environment. A strong pass rush and a gutsy coach contributed to the Saints stumbling in St. Louis? Guess what Carolina has at home?

What’s next: at Panthers, their most important road game of the regular season.

Why they’re here: The Bengals seemed like they were a formality to win the AFC North, but there’s now serious concern they can fall out of the wild-card picture all together. They came out flat against the Steelers, and are now stuck needing to win out to ensure a playoff berth.

How they move up: Rely on their home dominance. The Bengals are 6-0 there, and have two more left at Paul Brown Stadium. That’s the saving grace as they sweat things out vs. the Dolphins and Ravens.

How they move down: Have major special teams lapses. Looking at the game at Pittsburgh, if there wasn’t one bad punting situation and one punt return TD allowed, the Bengals would have won. They need to play better in all three phases.

Why they’re here: They couldn’t finish a Tom Brady rally in Miami, as they had done before in games against New Orleans, Denver, Houston and Cleveland. Instead the result was similar to what happened on the road against Cincinnati and Carolina.

How they move up: Find how to get their passing game rolling without Rob Gronkowski. The numbers were OK for Brady against the Dolphins, but Danny Amendola and Julian Edelman both came up a little short (literally). The red zone is the big concern.

How they move down: Keep folding late defensively. That’s their true weakness, where the injuries have been more devastating.

Why they’re here: They survived a big Titans comeback to take home a overtime shootout victory in Tennessee, a gritty road victory that guaranteed the Cardinals would remain in the thick of the NFC playoff chase with two weeks left.

How they move up: The Cardinals will have to beat one of their tough NFC West foes, either Seattle on the road, or San Francisco at home to make a push for a wild card. The good news is they hold the tiebreaker over Carolina.

How they move down: If they can’t finish games better. They started well against the Titans, only to fade. That kind of play won’t lead to any wins in their final two.

What’s next: at Seahawks, facing a team that just doesn’t lose at home.

Why they’re here: The Colts got a nice rebound opportunity against the cellar-dwelling Texans and took advantage of it with a complete victory where they reestablished some of their physical identity. They need to embrace it again before the playoffs.

How they move up: Keep finding different backs and receivers to help Andrew Luck. Two weeks ago it was Da’Rick Rogers and Lavon Brazill. Last week it was Trent Richardson and Griff Whalen.

How they move down: If they can’t stick with starting fast. That happened against the Texans. It made sure Luck wasn’t put it in bad positions late.

What’s next: at Chiefs, a good physical test two weeks before a potential playoff rematch.

Why they’re here: The Eagles’ defense, which had been playing well, fell apart against the Vikings’ backup combination of Matt Cassel and Matt Asiata on the road. They’ve got to rebound at home to set up an NFC East title tilt with Dallas in Week 17.

How they move up: Get back to forcing some turnovers and coming up with key sacks. That didn’t happened at any point in Minnesota, hurting what looked like a promising comeback.

How they move down: If they have any more protection lapses for Nick Foles. The Eagles’ offensive line has been solid, but Jared Allen got to it a bit. They need to avoid the same thing against Julius Peppers.

Why they’re here: Justin Tucker put them in this position with his field goals from 20-, 30-, 40-, 50-, and 60-yard ranges in Detroit. It was a clutch performance in a win that gives the Ravens a much better shot at both the AFC wild card and North titles.

How they move up: The Ravens just survived the Lions, but they likely have two more close games (what else is new) against New England and Cincinnati to determine whether they get a shot to defend their Super Bowl title.

How they move down: If they can’t get something going on the ground. It’s been a problem all season, and is the reason why they can’t get their deep play-action passing game and red zone offense going.

What’s next: vs. Patriots, whom they beat on the road in last year’s AFC title game.

Why they’re here: Here come the Dolphins. They’ve teased as a breakthrough AFC playoff team all season, and it’s almost come to fruition after their breakthrough victory at home over New England. Now they just beat Buffalo and the New York Jets, and they’re in the playoffs.

How they move up: Keep Ryan Tannehill blazing. The Bills and Jets can be a little tricky defensively, despite holes on the back end. The second-year quarterback is in a zone, however.

How they move down: If they can’t work their slot coverage better. If they make the playoffs, it would be a problem against teams with multiple inside receiving threats.

What’s next: at Bills, against whom they must Tannehill clean on the road.

Why they’re here: The Bears saw Jay Cutler return, and after some tense moments with interceptions, their offense went into overdrive to blow past the Browns in Cleveland and hold on for a shootout victory.

How they move up: Get a more confident and efficient Cutler to deliver on the road again. The game in Philadelphia figures to be another shootout.

How they move down: If they can’t shore up against the run. Even Edwin Baker and the Browns found room to rumble against the Bears. This week they draw LeSean McCoy.

Why they’re here: The Packers’ amazing comeback in Dallas saved their season. Now their playoff chances have a chance to thrive. If they win out, they would be division champions.

How they move up: Get back you know who at quarterback. Matt Flynn just delivered against the Cowboys, but as soon as Aaron Rodgers is healthy, he’ll be the man again. Flynn cost them some games earlier that Rodgers wouldn’t have.

How they move down: If they start slow and wait until late in games to get their defense going. The Packers would be in trouble if that happens against Ben Roethlisberger and Jay Cutler.

Why they’re here: Where to begin? More undisciplined play and more shaky coaching from Jim Schwartz were trumped by glaring mistakes by both Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson in their heartbreaking loss against the Ravens.

How they move up: Now from first to third in the NFC North, they need a little help from the Packers or Bears this week to have a chance to salvage the division title. For the moment, they need to just focus on their own business against the upstart Giants and Vikings.

How they move down: Keep turning the ball over and not forcing takeaways. That cost them against Baltimore, and it’s crucial against New York and Minnesota.

Why they’re here: Where to begin? Head-scratching play-calling by Jason Garrett and Bill Callahan was exposed by Tony Romo throwing two interceptions. That further masked that their woeful defense couldn’t hold a 23-point lead in the second half against the Packers.

How they move up: Force some turnovers and tighten up in the red zone. Those elements have been the saving grace and why the Cowboys are even .500, because they make up for huge yardage with a few little drive-stallers.

How they move down: If they forget about DeMarco Murray and the running game. It’s a wonder why it keeps happening, even if they remember Murray and it works for much of the game.

What’s next: at Redskins, where they need to avoid a road trap against their archrvials.

Why they’re here: The Steelers used a lot of special teams and a little defense to upend the division-leading Bengals. They’re still not a playoff team, but they are bound to finish strong and keep playing spoiler under Mike Tomlin.

How they move up: If they can continue to be sparked by Antonio Brown. No wonder he was the Steelers’ team MVP a couple of seasons ago. He just does everything for them that counts in the return and receiving games.

How they move down: If their defense keeps wearing down late. The Bengals simply ran out of time in Week 15. It might be a whole different story in Green Bay.

What’s next: at Packers, where that defense hopes it won’t face Aaron Rodgers in Lambeau.

Why they’re here: Jeff Fisher has done it again. His scrappy team will miss the playoffs for a second consecutive season because of injuries, but they are fighting hard to the end with relentless defense. The Saints just learned that.

How they move up: The Rams have shellshocked teams such as New Orleans and Indianapolis, who both have overrated offensive lines in common. Their pass rush and linebackers are fine; they just need more consistency from the back end.

How they move down: If they can’t find some kind of pop. They’ve pieced together some decent offense around Kellen Clemens, but that big-play element has been lacking all season.

What’s next: vs. Buccaneers, a winnable game feature two teams that will play hard.

Why they’re here: The Titans have found some offense as Ryan Fitzpatrick has made their passing game very dangerous. But their defense, despite an excellent secondary and good pass rush, keeps staying leaky against the run, as Arizona took advantage.

How they move up: Keep Fitzpatrick dealing. There was Justin Hunter and Kendall Wright. Last week it was Michael Preston and Delanie Walker. He seems to be in a zone with their weapons and their offensive scheme.

How they move down: Keep giving up big runs. That’s the issue. Major holes keep opening up, either between the tackles or on the edges.

What’s next: at Jaguars, where they will try to avoid a season series sweep.

Why they’re here: The Jets gave their best effort in Carolina, but more road struggles by rookie quarterback Geno Smith still grounded them. Now the focus turns to next season as they’re eliminated from the playoffs.

How they move up: Get Smith to bounce back and finish his first year on a high. There were signs of that in the victory over Oakland just two weeks ago.

How they move down: If they can’t slow down anything with their pass defense. It’s been their most embarrassing liability all season.

What’s next: vs. Browns, in a battle of two teams looking to build for 2014.

Why they’re here: The Giants had been showing some life, but then that evaporated with back-to-back blowout losses to San Diego and Seattle where they couldn’t score with Eli Manning and their offense in freefall.

How they move up: Lean on that defense even more. Given Manning’s five interceptions, they were as stingy as possible in last week’s 23-0 loss to the Seahawks. They are still tight against the run and are making a few plays against the pass. Now they need to become turnovers to make up for the losing battle on the other side.

How they move down: If Manning’s meltdown continues. It’s gotten to the point the blame no longer falls on anyone other than the quarterback. He’s better than that, even with supporting cast issues.

What’s next: at Lions, where they will hope to play spoiler against another sloppy NFC team.

Why they’re here: The Falcons have gotten up off the mat with recent victories over Buffalo and Washington. Even in their lost season, they are getting everything they can out of their healthy roster under Mike Smith.

How they move up: Have Matt Ryan light it up. San Francisco and Carolina are tough defenses up front that can stuff their running game, so Ryan needs to come through against the foes for the Falcons to save face more.

How they move down: If they can’t stop the long pass. Unfortunately, San Francisco and Carolina also come with dynamic, athletic strong-armed passers, Colin Kaepernick and Cam Newton.

Why they’re here: The Buccaneers have seen their midseason surge replaced by a late-season swoon. The latest was another tough loss to another tough opponent, to San Francisco at home.

How they move up: Find some more pop from Mike Glennon and the passing game. That was key to the mini turnaround earlier. Now the rookie quarterback is hitting a bit of a wall, even with some good TD results.

How they move down: If they can’t cover better. The 49ers got in gear passing on their secondary, and a high-priced Tampa Bay unit should be performing at a higher level.

What’s next: at St. Louis, where they will try to move up a notch in the NFC standings.

Why they’re here: The Vikings are regretting not going with Matt Cassel earlier. Unlike Christian Ponder or Josh Freeman, he executes the offense and gets the ball to the key playmakers built for speed. That all happened against the Eagles.

How they move up: Don’t worry about who’s in the backfield and just sling it. Cassel has proved he can handle it, especially with guys such as Greg Jennings, Jerome Simpson and Cordarrelle Patterson catching it. It’s a good test to see what they can do offensively with Adrian Peterson hurt.

How they move down: If they can’t shore up their deep pass defense. That’s been a consistent problem, made worse by secondary injuries. Even Jared Allen and their talent up front can’t make up for it.

What’s next: at Bengals, where Cassel will try to throw the ball as well outdoors.

Why they’re here: The Bills survived a messy game with the Jaguars in Jacksonville. It was a good rebound for EJ Manuel and the offense after the Florida stumble in Tampa Bay.

How they move up: If they can keep trusting Manuel to spread it around. He’s had his moments when both he and his key receivers have been healthy during his rookie season. Unlike others, he hasn’t quite hit a wall because of less playing time.

How they move down: If they can’t shore up the run defense. It’s been awful against Bobby Rainey and Jordan Todman. It must be better against the Miami duo of Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas.

What’s next: vs. Dolphins, with a chance to play spoiler against an AFC East rival.

Why they’re here: The Browns came out flying defensively against the Bears, only to see their offense go into the tank while Chicago pulled ahead. The bright spot of the season continues to be wide receiver Josh Gordon.

How they move up: Get some more takeaways. It kept them in the game against Jay Cutler and the Bears, and they almost won it. They will have those opportunities vs. Geno Smith this week.

How they move down: If their secondary doesn’t play better. Joe Haden is banged up and no longer a shutdown force, and they have plenty of coverage issues behind him.

What’s next: at Jets, where Gordon will try to flash past a bad New York secondary.

Why they’re here: They did their best to compete offensively without Maurice Jones-Drew and Cecil Shorts III, but they didn’t quite have enough pop and made one too many mistakes that cost them against the Bills.

How they move up: Keep feeding Jordan Todman. They’re on to something with this speedy, explosive all-around kid as a potential successor to Jones-Drew. The last two games will see if he can lock down the job for 2014.

How they move down: If they can’t stop the run themselves. They had been better at that until they saw the Bills’ duo of C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson.

What’s next: vs. Titans, who can come at them with Chris Johnson and Shonn Greene.

Why they’re here: The Raiders did their best to light up the scoreboard against the mighty Chiefs, but they could not stop Jamaal Charles and committed turnover after turnover. The result was giving up 56 points at home.

How they move up: Just protect the ball. They can move it with Matt McGloin, some speed receivers, and using both Rashad Jennings and Marcel Reece out of the backfield. Now they’ll be on to something if they can eliminate interceptions and fumbles.

How they move down: If they can’t stop the dumpoff pass to the running back. Charles had a video-game like performance. This week they draw the Chargers’ Danny Woodhead.

What’s next: at Chargers, who should be dreaming of a 50-point bomb, too.

Why they’re here: Kirk Cousins did wake up their offense in place of Robert Griffin III in Atlanta, but their defense remained dormant and the turnover battle was still lost, ensuring they would continue their freefall to the NFC’s worst record.

How they move up: Keep letting Cousins loose. Despite two interceptions, he put Washington in position to win. The Redskins just couldn’t finish because of Alfred Morris fumbling away golden chances.

How they move down: If they keep rolling over. Cousins got them going a bit, but there was still a sense they were going through the motions under Mike Shanahan in Atlanta.

What’s next: vs. Cowboys, archrivals form whom they should get up at home.

Why they’re here: The Texans have now lost a dozen consecutive games, and are faced with the prospect of facing the AFC’s best team at home in Week 16. Good luck not getting that No. 1 overall draft pick.

How they move up: Get aggressive. Whatever good they have done offensively and defensively in spurts, it just hasn’t worked in a complete game. Now they must pull out all the stops, or it will be 14 straight soon.