Economic Prospects Said Bleak for the 'Forgotten Half'

Washington--A new report by a national panel paints a grim picture
of the economic realities facing the 20 million 16- to 24-year-olds in
this country whose formal education ends with high school.

Lacking either the credentials to find a "good" job or the resources
to start a family, these young people face economic prospects
considerably bleaker than those of earlier generations, according to
the report.

Such youths--dubbed "the forgotten half" by the panel--typically
"flounder" for several years in dead-end jobs. The results of those
wasted years, it says, are frustration for the young people and a
$240-billion loss to the national economy in unrealized earnings and
income taxes.

"The plight of 'the forgotten half,' never easy, has become
alarming," said Harold Howe 2nd, a former U.S. commissioner of
education and the chairman of the commission that produced the
report.

"This nation may face a future divided not along lines of race or
geography but of educational attainment," the report warns.

"The Forgotten Half: Non-College Youth in America," is the product
of a yearlong examination of the subject by the 19-member commission,
which included prominent educators, business leaders, and
sociologists.

Part of a two-year, $1.7-million effort funded by the William T.
Grant Foundation, the panel's 100-page report is among the first to
take a comprehensive look at the 50 percent of the nation's young
people who do not go on to college--a group that it says has been
largely ignored by the education-reform movement.

The problems facing young people stem from the rapid transformations
that have shaken the nation's economy in recent decades, according to
the commission.

"The economy has been through wrenching changes and young workers
have borne the brunt of those changes," Mr. Howe said.

Most significantly, the report says, the pool of stable, well-paying
jobs requiring no college training has shrunk markedly.

For example, in the manufacturing sector, the report notes, 1.7
million jobs disappeared between 1979 and 1985. Thousands more "good"
jobs have been lost in transportion and agriculture, it adds.

In addition, the study notes, large corporate employers tend to hire
young workers in their early to mid-20's for entry-level, career jobs.
The employers reason that young people just out of high school are "not
responsible" or "not ready to settle down yet," according to the
study.

As a result, the jobs open to new high-school graduates are largely
part time, low-paying, and lacking in benefits, opportunities for
career advancement, and stability. Currently, it takes two retail
jobs--now in abundant supply--to equal the wages lost by one
manufacturing job, according to the study.

"The high-school graduate who can find no better full-time job than
the youth job he or she held while still a student is far too
prevalent," the report says.

Among the sobering economic evidence used to paint its portrait of a
generation "left at the starting gate," the report notes that:

In 1986, young men ages 20 to 24 who had both high-school diplomas
and jobs earned 28 percent less in constant dollars than did the
comparable group in 1973. Corresponding groups of college graduates, by
contrast, suffered only a 6 percent income decline over the same
period.

The earnings gap was widest among high-school dropouts, who earned
44 percent less in 1986 than their predecessors did in 1973.

Even when employed, only 43.7 percent of young male dropouts earned
enough in 1985 to support a family of three above the poverty level,
down from about 60 percent in 1973.

The percentage of noncollege-bound high-school graduates under 20 in
the full-time workforce fell from 73 percent in 1968 to 49 percent in
1986. Among females, the percentage decreased from 57 percent to 24
percent over the same period.

Not 'Laid Back' Losers

The commission sought to dispel what it called "false assumptions"
that "the forgotten half" is to blame for its own problems.

"Theirs is not a generation of 'laid back' losers, but rather one
that is scrambling to succeed," Mr. Howe said.

"These young people are working more than one job at a time, living
at home longer with parents, delaying marriage and family, and seeking
out new training to advance themselves," he said.

The report points out, for example, that while public concern has
been aroused by reports pointing to a high national dropout rate,
statistics show that the annual dropout rate nationwide fell from 6.3
percent in 1973 to 5.2 percent a decade later. The study also notes
that 86 percent of all 25- to 29-year-olds have earned a high-school
diploma or its equivalent--twice the percentage for that age group in
1940.

"The primary problem lies with the economy, and the paths for youth
who enter," the report concludes, "rather than the youths
themselves."

The report also dismisses the notion that inadequate schooling has
been the cause of the forgotten half's problem, noting that "education
can help but it is no cure-all for massive changes in the labor
market."

In fact, the report says, education-reform efforts that seek to
solve such societal ills with a "cookie-cutter approach" to learning
pose a special danger to such young people.

"For young people who have not fared well in school, a regimen of
'more of the same' may well result in less learning," the report
warns.

'Making It' Better

Instead, to help the nation's non-college-bound young people
betterbridge the gap between school and work, the commission calls for
a $50-billion infusion of federal funds over the next 10 years in
programs it says have already proven their success. They include the
Head Start preschool program, Chapter 1 subsidies to help schools serve
disadvantaged children, the Job Corps, and the Job Training Partnership
Act.

The commissioners also urge educators, business leaders, and
government officials to band together to lend this group a hand "up the
ladder." Such efforts, the report says, might include redirected
vocational education programs, career internships, mentors from the
community, and volunteer service for the young, among other
possibilities.

"We think nothing of spending money on Pell grants or scholarships,
yet we say to this group, 'You're on your own,' when they graduate from
high school," said Samuel Halperin, the commission's executive
director.

"About three-quarters of these kids eventually make it on their
own," he added, "but maybe they'd make it better if given the
chance."

Single copies of the full report may be obtained at no charge by
writing the William T. Grant Foundation Commission on Work, Family, and
Citizenship, 1001 Connecticut Ave., N.W.; Washington, D.C.
20036-5541.

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