Wednesday, December 17, 2014

Last weekend put the final wrap on the 2014 Arkansas high school football
season as the three smallest school classifications crowned champions in Little Rock. We expected two of the three games to be competitive, but only the Friday night contest in 3A lived up to that billing. Warren and Junction City both controlled their contests from beginning to end while Charleston was forced to fight all the way through to their second straight title. We want to congratulate all the champions and runner-ups in the six classifications on great seasons.

Like us, the coaches are already starting to look to spring football and summer 7-on-7. As we move into the "off-season," we will have our traditional helmet salute to the state champions, team and individual camp announcements, 7-on-7 tournament previews and results, and some posts with data analysis from around the country. The posts will draw data from high schools around the state of Arkansas and a few other states processed using techniques advanced from those outlined in our book, Saturday Morning Wake-Up Call. This Harrison data example from last summer provides the link to where the book is available.

Thursday, December 11, 2014

It is the final week of the 2014 Arkansas high school football season. The three smallest school classifications play their state championship games this weekend in Little Rock. You will find the championship game capsules and our picks below. Next week, we will have the state final results and then eventually present our traditional helmet tribute to all 6 state champions.

4A

Mena vs. Warren

Saturday, December 13

12:00 pm

War Memorial Stadium (Little Rock)

The 4A contest features the Mena Bearcats and the Warren Lumberjacks. The Lumberjacks are familiar with deep runs in the playoffs over the 15 years having won back to back titles in 2001 and 2002. Warren lost to Booneville in the state finals just last year. The Bearcats return to the state finals for the first time since their only championship in 1976. Second year coach, Tim Harper, has Mena firing on all cylinders as they have beaten 2 conference foes in route to this title game appearance. Both teams have played excellent defense during their playoff runs and we don't expect that to change. However, Warren's team speed may be an issue for the Bearcats run defense.

OUR PICK: We are going with the heart rather than the head, so Mena over Warren in a 27-24 game.

3A

Charleston vs. Smackover

Friday, December 12

7:00 pm

War Memorial Stadium (Little Rock)

The 3A title game features the Charleston Tigers and the Smackover Buckaroos. The Tigers are in familiar territory as this is their 6th title game in 11 years, and they are the 3A defending champion. Ty Storey, a highly touted Razorback commit, will be the feature story of the game as he looks to win a 2nd state title on Friday and then enroll at the University of Arkansas in a few weeks. Smackover, on the other hand, is playing for its first state title since the 1949 season. The lone loss for the Buckaroos in 2014 has come at the hands of the Junction City juggernaut in the only close call for the Dragons. So, Smackover is familiar with tough defense and high powered offense. We look for this game to be a back and forth shootout.

OUR PICK: Charleston over Smackover in a 45-42 game.

2A

Junction City vs. Hazen

Saturday, December 13

6:30 pm

War Memorial Stadium (Little Rock)

The Hazen Hornets will take on 2-time defending state champion Junction City Dragons in the 2A state title tilt. Both teams arrive in the title game undefeated with Junction City looking to win its 40th straight game. Dragon dominance has been the story of 2A football in Arkansas for the last decade, and they continue to produce D1 football talent at this small school. Hazen has never won a state title, but the Hornets have looked dominant at times this season as well. The real question in this game may be whether or not the Hornets believe that they can slay the Dragons. If they can keep it a ball game into the 2nd half, then we may see tension that has not been there all season for Junction City.

Monday, December 8, 2014

Three state champions were crowned last weekend. In the 5A contest, Pulaski Academy held off a late charge by Wynne to claim another state title for Coach Kevin Kelley. In the 6A contest, the Pine Bluff Zebras flipped the script on the Benton Panthers and cruised to a surprising lopsided victory. In the 7A match-up, Fayetteville scored too quickly to take the lead and allowed the Bentonville Tigers a chance to answer, and they did to cap another thrilling state title game between these two programs.

The other action around the state set up state final matches for Class 2A, 3A, and 4A schools. We will preview the match-ups later in the week. The only real upset last Friday in these classifications was Warren taking down a previously undefeated and top ranked Dardanelle in the 4A semi-finals. All the scores are below. Our correct winners are in BLUE while the misses are in RED. We were 7 of 9 (77.8%) for the week.

Wednesday, December 3, 2014

It is Championship Week in the 2014 Arkansas high school football season for classes 5A, 6A, and 7A. The other three classifications are playing semi-final games this week. The state championship game capsules with date and game time are below. Below the game capsules, you will find with our picks for winners of the class 2A-4A semi-final games in BOLD.
The semi-final games will all be played at 7:00 pm on Friday, December 5.

7A

Bentonville vs. Fayetteville

Saturday, December 6

12:00 pm

War Memorial Stadium (Little Rock)

If it feels like you have seen this show before, you have. The Bentonville Tigers and Fayetteville Bulldogs meet for the 7A state title for the 4th time in 5 years. Both teams will be looking for their third title in 5 years. The Tigers are making their 5th straight title game appearance. Bentonville has to be considered the favorite even though they started the 2014 campaign a very un-Tigerlike 0-4. However, Fayetteville is coming off its largest win in its playoff history over the Bulldogs traditional nemesis (Fort Smith Southside). The Tigers trounced the Dogs 45-2 in a week #10 contest. We look for a much more competitive game in Little Rock.

OUR PICK: Bentonville over Fayetteville in a 38-28 game.

As a curiosity, why must these teams (separated by 25 miles) travel an average of 150 miles to Little Rock to play a noon kickoff?

6A

El Dorado vs. Pine Bluff

Friday, December 5

7:00 pm

War Memorial Stadium (Little Rock)

The 6A game has all the makings of the most competitive game in War Memorial this weekend as the Benton Panthers and Pine Bluff Zebras have a rematch of a week #10 barn burner. The Panthers clipped the Zebras 39-36 in Pine Bluff. Both teams have dominated competition in the playoffs. Benton is in the state finals and undefeated (there is that week #1 tie) after a 0.500 season last year and hasn't won a state title since 1977. Pine Bluff is in the state title game for the 3rd year in a row having lost the previous two.

OUR PICK: Benton over Pine Bluff in a 35-32 game.

5A

Pulaski Academy vs. Wynne

Saturday, December 6

6:30 pm

War Memorial Stadium (Little Rock)

These two teams have been rated at or near the top of 5A all year by Hooten's Arkansas Football. The Pulaski Academy Bruins are undefeated against the state of Arkansas with their only blemish a 49-42 loss to Texas 6A power, Highland Park. The Wynne Yellowjackets only loss on the season was to Batesville - the team handled by the Bruins in last week's semi-finals. The Yellowjackets have tremendous team speed and a high powered offense. However, Wynne did struggle in last week semi-final game against a scrappy Beebe team.

Monday, December 1, 2014

Week #3 of the 2014 Arkansas high school football playoffs concluded last Friday night. There were some surprising scores, but few true upsets. The highest scoring team in Playoff Week #3 was Booneville with 63 points. As the number of teams dwindles, so does the 50 Point Club. There were just 2 teams that cracked that barrier this week:

Booneville (63)

Fayetteville (56)

Our correct winners are in BLUE while the misses are in RED. We were 15 of 18 (83.3%) for the week.

Tuesday, November 25, 2014

Here are the match-ups for Week #3 of the 2014 Arkansas High School playoffs. Our picks are in BOLD.
We have grouped the bullets such that the winners are paired. Find a
great match-up and enjoy the great playoff football this Friday
(November 28). All games begin at 7:00 pm.

Monday, November 24, 2014

The second week of the 2014 Arkansas high school football playoffs concluded last Friday. One of our 7A picks for the state title went down (Conway) to a traditional 7A West power (Fayetteville). In another surprise, Greenwood lost to perennial 6A power, El Dorado. Coach Rick Jones and his Bulldogs break a LONG string of Thanksgiving practices after that loss. Two teams claim the honor of the highest scoring team this week with 56 points, Hoxie and North Little Rock. The number of team reaching that 50 point mark continues to dwindle as we move deeper into the playoffs. These are the four members of the 50-Point Club for Week #2 of the playoffs:

Tuesday, November 18, 2014

Here are the match-ups for Week #2 of the 2014 Arkansas High School playoffs. Our picks are in BOLD. We have grouped the bullets such that the winners are paired. Find a great match-up and enjoy the great playoff football this Friday (November 21). All games begin at 7:00 pm.

On a side note, Adam picks Pulaski Academy as the 5A state champion now that the season has ended for his Goblins.

Monday, November 17, 2014

Week #1 of the 2014 Arkansas high school football playoffs wrapped
up last Friday night. There were just a few surprises including Rogers Heritage over Central (7A), Star City over Newport (4A), and Brinkley over Mount Ida (2A). Three teams were left wondering what could have been as Springdale Har-Ber, Nettleton, and Elkins went home with 1-point losses. Two conferences showed great depth as the 4A-7 went 3-1 (only 5th place Fountain Lake lost to Dardanelle [currently 11-0]) and the 2A-8 went 4-1 (only 5th place Parkers Chapel lost to Earle [winner of the 2A-3]). It appears that the 7A West may be attempting to re-establish dominance in the state's highest classification as the only central Arkansas winner in 7A on Friday was Bryant.

The highest scoring team this first week of the playoffs was McGehee with 64 points. The 2A-8 showed high scoring ability as both Bearden and Junction topped 60 points. As you might expect as
the playoffs begin, the number of team reaching that 50 point mark was
down. These are the 50-Point Club members for Week #1 of the playoffs:

McGehee (64)

Bearden (63)

Junction City (62)

Camden Fairview (61)

Heber Springs (57)

Earle (56)

Harrison (54 - Loss)

Wynne (54)

Dardanelle (52)

El Dorado (52)

Prescott (52)

Smackover (52)

The scores in BLUE below are ones that we correctly picked the winner while they those in RED were misses. For the week, we were 48 of 58 (82.8%).

Tuesday, November 11, 2014

Here are the match-ups for Week #1 of the 2014 Arkansas High School playoffs. Our picks are in BOLD.
We have grouped the bullets such that the winners are paired. Find a
great match-up and enjoy the great (cold) football weather this Friday
(November 14). All games begin at 7:00 pm.

Monday, November 10, 2014

Last Friday closed out the regular season for 2014 Arkansas high school football. The playoff match-ups are now set, and we will have those out a little later in the week. The high scoring team for Week #10 was Gosnell with 74 points. Three other teams managed to hit the 60 point mark (Smackover, Cave City, and East Poinsett County). The 50-point Club for Week #10 includes the following teams: