October 24, 2016; two days ago -- Russia's Northern Fleet was halfway to Syria.

The carrier is also sailing with a handful of new MiG-29K
Fulcrum fighter-bombers in addition to her standard complement of
Su-33s. The Russian navy has scrambled
to get the MiG-29Ks — which pack an advanced avionics suite — ready for
the voyage. The fact that Admiral Kuznetsov is sailing with Fulcrums is
a sign this is no ordinary Mediterranean cruise.

But as it turns out, the Indian Navy also possesses an
ex-Soviet carrier, the Vikramaditya, and operates MiG-29Ks from the
flattop. So Admiral Kuznetsov’s mission could be an attempt to promote the fighters’ combat abilities — like a military form of embedded marketing — in the hope New Delhi buys more.

October 14, 2016: having read The Economist earlier today (the most recent issue) -- no links -- it's hard for me to believe that Putin / Syria won't be the "October surprise." My hunch is that it could become much more serious than the Cuban missile crisis, but it will end more quickly, and it could end more badly. Putin, the Bear, has been backed into a corner, and we all know what is said about a bear being backed into a corner. Even at his "best," President Obama would probably have trouble responding to Putin, but in his last few months, Obama is unlikely to be engaged at all.

October 14, 2016: with Obama now a lame duck, Reuters is a bit more free to report what is really going on. The bottom line: the US has been outplayed by Russia/Syria (Assad) in Aleppo. Obama has no options. Obama has already lost his allies in the Mideast and to win them back he would have to confront Russia head-on. There's a reason the Russian press is talking about the risk of nuclear war with the US. That alone will keep Obama from acting. October 5, 2016: stories of rifts between Russia and US are reaching fever pitch over Aleppo. Things are possibly as tense as ever between Russia and US, at least as far as Syria is concerned. It may have something to do with the fact that Obama has always been seen as weak, and now, as a lame duck, even weaker. If Hillary is elected, things might improve between Russia and the US, but if Trump is elected, all bets are off, and Putin knows that.

July 24, 2016: the US has two major installations in Turkey: Izmir and Incirlik. Izmir is an "open" base and not much there except "command and control." Incirlik is the major base with active aircraft fighting ISIS and the home of a "NATO" presence with nuclear bombs. It is being reported tonight that there is a "massive" fire in / around Izmir. The fire will have a bigger impact on Turkish citizens than US personnel. There is talk that the fire was deliberately set, and is anti-American. One might be concerned that Erdogan is upping the ante to get an exiled Turkish political leader out of the US and back to Turkey to stand trial. The next step of course would be to shut down US activities at Incirlik Air Base but that would be an end to US participation from Turkey against ISIS. That may be a bridge too far for Erdogan.

Vice-president Joe Biden
called Bahrain’s King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa to express “strong
concerns”, the White House said late on Friday, alluding to a political
crisis in the tiny island kingdom that threatens its close ties to the
US, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states.

In a description of the call, the White House said Biden and the king spoke of “recent negative developments in Bahrain and their implications for the wider region”.

On Thursday, an explosion
south of the Bahraini capital, Manama, killed a woman and injured her
three children. A day later, police said the blast was a “terrorist
bombing” in the village of Eker and said officers had begun an
investigation.

Violence has increased in Bahrain as the Sunni monarchy has cracked
down on dissent among factions of the majority Shia population. Recent
bombings have been blamed on radical Shia opposition groups, which were
largely driven underground after failed protests in 2011.

About 1,200 troops from Saudi Arabia and 800 from the United Arab Emirates helped quash that uprising, which threatened to upend Bahrain as an Egyptian revolt had overthrown its government a month before.

In recent months, the Bahraini government has stripped away the
citizenship of 250 people, including the country’s most prominent Shia
cleric; suspended the largest Shia opposition group and extended a
prison term for its leader; kept activists out of a United Nations human
rights meeting; and rearrested a human rights activist for spreading “false news”.

June 5, 2016: pretty minor in the big scheme of things, but simply another story that the Iraqi Army (with huge assist from the US) is still nowhere near able to take on the JV team. This story is from The New York Times and states it will be another day, another campaign, before US-Iraq can think about taking back Mosul. The situation is pretty pathetic.

April 13, 2016: President Obama will visit Saudi Arabia to participate in the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council on April 21, 2016, to "shore up US commitment there." [Update: I do not recall any major announcement following this visit.]

January 13, 2016: from the NewStatesman: Behind Saudi Arabia’s bluster is a country that feels under grave threat.

Saudi Arabia feels with good reason more threatened than at any time in its modern history, at least since the subversive Kulturkampf
of the 1950s and 1960s from Nasser’s Egypt.

This stems from five
sources: first, the challenge of Sunni and largely Salafi jihadism;
second, the sustained ideological and material challenge of the Islamic
Republic of Iran; third, the collapse of large parts of the Middle East
state system following the Arab spring; fourth, a sharp fall in global
energy prices; and fifth, a sense that historical alliances – notably
but not only with the United States – are fraying.

These threats are real.

A decade or so ago, the heirs to Juhaiman
al-Otaybi’s 1979 Grand Mosque attackers, al-Qaeda in the Arabian
Peninsula, launched a terror campaign within the kingdom with the aim of
inspiring a general Sunni insurgency. The Saudis were slow to realise
what they were facing. Once they did, they mobilised and ruthlessly
crushed the terrorists.

But they did not go away. The remnants regrouped
in Yemen and from there plotted, recruited others (including the
American imam Anwar al-Awlaki) and directed further attacks, against
Western and Saudi targets. More recently there has been a wave of
attacks, claimed by Islamic State, mostly on Shia targets – but also on
security forces and a Sunni mosque at a military base near the Yemeni
border.

Remember the fall of the Shah of Iran? It happened during the period when the US president was very, very similar to our current president. Both ideologues and internationally weak and isolationists. From wiki: The Carter Administration increasingly became locked in a debate about continued support for the monarchy. In the current situation, President Obama has explicitly stated and has explicitly acted in such a matter to let the Saudis know they are on their own.

January 11, 2016: Google: The Saudi-U.S. relationship: Shakier than ever.

Saudi Arabia's royal family is frightened — and that's a problem for the U.S.-Saudi relationship.

The
Saudis are surrounded by enemies. To the north, Abu Bakr Baghdadi,
leader of Islamic State, has promised to overthrow the Al Saud dynasty,
which he calls “the serpent's head.” To the south, Sunni-led Saudi
forces are at war against Shia Muslim rebels in Yemen. To the east, the
Al Saud face the rival they fear most, Shia-ruled Iran.
The Saudis have problems at home, too. Fearing subversion from both
Islamic State and Iran, the government has cracked down on Sunni and
Shia dissidents alike, jailing writers, journalists and human rights
lawyers as well as potential terrorists. The plummeting price of oil has
blown a hole in the government's budget while the population,
accustomed to subsidized housing and utilities, keeps growing.

And
the family faces a succession crisis; 80-year-old King Salman, who
ascended to the throne last year, is described privately by diplomats as
nearly senile.

Once their regime was a pillar of conservative stability; now fear has made them unpredictable.

Iran already has ample reason to want to topple the Saudis, who are its
main antagonist in the Shiite vs. Sunni conflict that has swept the
region amid America’s retreat. The two are fighting a proxy war in
Yemen, after a Saudi-led coalition intervened to stop a takeover by
Iran’s Houthi allies. The Saudis are also the leading supporter of the
non-Islamic State Sunnis who are fighting Syria’s ally Bashar Assad. Russia and Iran are allied with Assad.

The White House decision last week to walk back U.S.
sanctions against Iran after its recent ballistic-missile tests may also
embolden Iran to take greater risks.

As for the Saudis, they can be forgiven for doubting that they can count
on President Obama. Fairly or not, they concluded from the fall of
Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak
that this Administration will abandon its friends in a pinch. They saw
his “red-line” reversal in 2013 in Syria, Mr. Obama’s accommodation to
Russian revanchism in Crimea, and that he now may let Assad keep power
in Syria. The Saudis intervened in Bahrain in 2011 without telling the
U.S., and they recently formed a new Sunni-state coalition to fight
Islamic State—again without the U.S.

Market plunges almost 500 points; oil up a little over 2% but still well below $40

January 3, 2016

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard also lashed out at Saudi Arabia Sunday. They
compared the executions to attacks carried out by the Islamic State. The
Guard said in a statement that Saudi Arabia’s “medieval act of
savagery” in putting al-Nimir death will lead to the “downfall” of the
monarchy. Comment: I think Iran will be seen by the global community as a "modern" nation compared to the "medieval" Saudi Arabia

Sunday evening futures (for the archives): the Dow futures righted themselves; early down 175 points, then Asia showed strength on energy; now up 41 points; WTI futures up $0.96

The [London] Guardian's view: Saudi's moves unjust; provoking. I don't know if Saudi has (m)any friends right now. There are still a lot of Americans that think Saudi Arabia sponsored 9/11; their oil pumping policy is "killing" Venezuela, others; and, now, the Shiite issue