J. Frank Parnell: If it really was so easy for a virus to greatly depopulate the human race, i think they'd have done it already.

TuteTibiImperes: ...but the flu pandemic of 1918 killed 3-5% of the world's population. 50-100 million people.

And that was before air travel. Now we have thousands of people going from one continent to another every single day, taking all their germs and infections with them. A new virus that is easily transmitted between humans could be all over the world before anyone was aware that it existed.

There has never been a virus that even came close to killing everyone. But what i was talking about are modern engineered viruses. I'm pretty sure it's been tried, and found to be harder than you'd think.

Isolated populations used to have high death-tolls from viruses that developed in other populations, but one of the good things about the global travel thing we have going on now is we've already been exposed to pretty much every humans strain out there, which just leaves these crossovers from animals, but again, it's doubtful we'll see one that kills most people. The biggest death toll of any virus in recorded history is probably the black plague, and even the most generous estimates only put that at half the population of Europe dying. More realistic estimates put it at 25%.

I've pointed out before that it's not even in the interest of viruses to kill people. Any deaths are accidental side effects from the methods used to try and transmit to other bodies. If they were to successfully kill off all of their host species, they would doom themselves. After millions of years evolving alongside a species they need them to keep living.

Even five percent of the population (1918) is a huge impact. No it won't destabilize the population but even it caused noticeable waves in genetic diversity in Europe and North America.

Actually, it's not nearly that bad. It's 25% of those who got sick enough to end up in the hospital. They've found others with antibodies.

J. Frank Parnell:There has never been a virus that even came close to killing everyone. But what i was talking about are modern engineered viruses. I'm pretty sure it's been tried, and found to be harder than you'd think.

There were places in the New World that were completely depopulated by old world diseases. Perhaps it wasn't just one and it might simply have been a kill to below viability rather than a total kill, though.

The thing is normally a super-lethal disease with a good vector kills its hosts and thus kills itself in the process. The deadly stuff that's still around evolved in combination with humans and thus the population had some resistance. Smallpox might kill a third but next generation it won't get as many and in time it won't get any and would die out.

The New World was a special case, they had no contact with old world diseases and thus they hadn't evolved resistance as the diseases evolved--the stuff that was devastating in the Old World was far worse in the New World.

Unfortunately, our protection against super lethal bugs is no longer viable. They'll still burn out like they did in the past but instead of getting a village they'll get the global village. If something really nasty makes a species jump (like flu is all too prone to doing) it could bring us down. While there would no doubt be survivors from the disease whether they can survive the disruption to society is another matter. (Contagion *GREATLY* downplayed this aspect of it.)

Actually, it's not nearly that bad. It's 25% of those who got sick enough to end up in the hospital. They've found others with antibodies.

J. Frank Parnell: There has never been a virus that even came close to killing everyone. But what i was talking about are modern engineered viruses. I'm pretty sure it's been tried, and found to be harder than you'd think.

There were places in the New World that were completely depopulated by old world diseases. Perhaps it wasn't just one and it might simply have been a kill to below viability rather than a total kill, though.

The thing is normally a super-lethal disease with a good vector kills its hosts and thus kills itself in the process. The deadly stuff that's still around evolved in combination with humans and thus the population had some resistance. Smallpox might kill a third but next generation it won't get as many and in time it won't get any and would die out.

The New World was a special case, they had no contact with old world diseases and thus they hadn't evolved resistance as the diseases evolved--the stuff that was devastating in the Old World was far worse in the New World.

Unfortunately, our protection against super lethal bugs is no longer viable. They'll still burn out like they did in the past but instead of getting a village they'll get the global village. If something really nasty makes a species jump (like flu is all too prone to doing) it could bring us down. While there would no doubt be survivors from the disease whether they can survive the disruption to society is another matter. (Contagion *GREATLY* downplayed this aspect of it.)

THIS

those brave American frontiersman didn't venture west into an untouched land of plenty with only a handful of savages

they found the scattered remnants of survivors in a charnel house...most of whom died without ever seeing a white man

All the best outbreaks in the past were successful due to ignorance, not travel.

We know far too much about micro-organisms now and how they work for any of them to be truly effective on a cataclysmic level. There will be no more Black Deaths. But there will always be new AIDS or SARS poking up periodically: Pandemics that inflict a low percentage until we figure out how they can be prevented/treated/marginalized.

Older Pathologist: Oh my God.Younger Pathologist: Do you want me to take a sample?Older Pathologist:I want you to step away from the table.*sloshing noises are heard, implying that the virus has liquefied Beth's brain*

University of Pittsburgh's Vector Lab had a recombinant vaccine out the door, in record time, that was 100% effective in chickens and mice, for H5N1. Vaccinated chickens were challenged with `dose' of H5N1 10,000 times as large as a `barnyard' exposure. None showed any evidence of disease. Controls? 100% dead..

A pandemic won't wipe out humans, neither would global warfare. Both might put a good sized dent in the population, but won't end it. A super-volcano event like Yellowstone would be far more damaging, as would a largish sized asteroid strike. I don't actually know how many active calderas are currently brewing (too lazy to find out), but Yellowstone will blow again, and she is definitely due (within a few tens of thousands of years perhaps). That alone might be the best reason to build a space presence somewhere in our solar system.

It's probably significantly less than 25%. The only sampling we truly have are from cases involving hospitalization (at least in the beginnin). A quarter of the hospitalized patients died? Those odds are a bit better.

I was reading an article about this strain and many quoted scientists indicated that we don't know how long this strain has been around. It's likely this strain is much more wide spread but because it presents like a normal flu - those sick do not seek treatment unless it becomes very bad.

Phins:J. Frank Parnell: If it really was so easy for a virus to greatly depopulate the human race, i think they'd have done it already.

TuteTibiImperes: ...but the flu pandemic of 1918 killed 3-5% of the world's population. 50-100 million people.

And that was before air travel. Now we have thousands of people going from one continent to another every single day, taking all their germs and infections with them. A new virus that is easily transmitted between humans could be all over the world before anyone was aware that it existed.

Take, for example, the boy for Taiwan. He was visting in China. Diagnosis was not confirmed until he returned home.

I work at a company in which I interface with many people in Japan. A lot of my emails are phonetically spelled. The other day I received something with the word global in it. It was spelled grobal. All 9 files.

J. Frank Parnell:The biggest death toll of any virus in recorded history is probably the black plague, and even the most generous estimates only put that at half the population of Europe dying. More realistic estimates put it at 25%.

RobertBruce:Even five percent of the population (1918) is a huge impact. No it won't destabilize the population but even it caused noticeable waves in genetic diversity in Europe and North America.

Sort of. As a general rule, the sick and elderly take the brunt of the fatalities in these situations. Children too, but to a lesser extent. My point being though, its the less productive members of society.

Alonjar:RobertBruce: Even five percent of the population (1918) is a huge impact. No it won't destabilize the population but even it caused noticeable waves in genetic diversity in Europe and North America.

Sort of. As a general rule, the sick and elderly take the brunt of the fatalities in these situations. Children too, but to a lesser extent. My point being though, its the less productive members of society.

/From a macro perspective

Except that, in the case of the 1918 flu pandemic, it was predominantly the young and fit who died.

If you're going to roll your forts on a d12, you deserve what's coming to you.

A good DM would let him do it too."Lets see, you want those die huh? Okay. You need to hit 17"*roll*"An 11. No good. The dragon fire hits you, roll to see if you catch fire, you need 15"*roll*"9. Nope. You're on fire. Maybe you can make it to that lake. You need...lets say 14"*roll*"12. So close. Sorry, you're dead. Roll to see if you get to go to heaven. You need a 13"

GentlemanJ:Older Pathologist: Oh my God.Younger Pathologist: Do you want me to take a sample?Older Pathologist: I want you to step away from the table.*sloshing noises are heard, implying that the virus has liquefied Beth's brain*

Ishkur:All the best outbreaks in the past were successful due to ignorance, not travel.

We know far too much about micro-organisms now and how they work for any of them to be truly effective on a cataclysmic level. There will be no more Black Deaths. But there will always be new AIDS or SARS poking up periodically: Pandemics that inflict a low percentage until we figure out how they can be prevented/treated/marginalized.

Perhaps. Here's another way to look at. There are a lot of people on Earth. They require some basics such as food and water every day. Too often their food harbors influenza whilst their water harbors mosquitoes. In time of drought, the mosquitos (in cisterns) and the influenza (in chickens, ducks and geese) get concentrated closer and closer to the people. Acute water scarcity and lack of awareness about proper water storage methods combined with concentration of food animals could bring Black Death II.

MaudlinMutantMollusk:There's always an Arquillian Battle Cruiser, or a Corillian Death Ray, or an H7N9 avian flu that is about to wipe out all life on this miserable little planet, and the only way these people can get on with their happy lives is that they DO NOT KNOW ABOUT IT!

There has never been a virus that even came close to killing everyone. But what i was talking about are modern engineered viruses. I'm pretty sure it's been tried, and found to be harder than you'd think.

Isolated populations used to have high death-tolls from viruses that developed in other populations, but one of the good things about the global travel thing we have going on now is we've already been exposed to pretty much every humans strain out there, which just leaves these crossovers from animals, but again, it's doubtful we'll see one that kills most people. The biggest death toll of any virus in recorded history is probably the black plague, and even the most generous estimates only put that at half the population of Europe dying. More realistic estimates put it at 25%.

I've pointed out before that it's not even in the interest of viruses to kill people. Any deaths are accidental side effects from the methods used to try and transmit to other bodies. If they were to successfully kill off all of their host species, they would doom themselves. After millions of years evolving alongside a species they need them to keep living.

Black plague was caused by the yersinia pestis bacterium, not a virus.

It's killed16 people so far. This outbreak has the capability of killing literally some people.

There's some speculation that the CDC is going to offically announce a pandemic today and that the new cases provide evidence of sustained H2H transmission. We'll see.

One of the problems scientists are facing is that not all birds are sympomatic and not all sympomatic birds have tested positive for this strain. There was a quiet announcement today that they're going to start looking for other sources since they're no doubting that birds are spreading it.

parahaps:TuteTibiImperes: parahaps: J. Frank Parnell: If it really was so easy for a virus to greatly depopulate the human race, i think they'd have done it already.

Uh...

It hasn't happened that I can recall since the advent of modern medicine. That isn't to say that it couldn't, especially in the case of a Twelve Monkeys-esque man-made virus terrorist attack, but I don't see anything ever taking as big a chunk of the population out as the black plague did back in the day.

I guess you can arbitrarily decide that 'modern medicine' started after the last big one, but the flu pandemic of 1918 killed 3-5% of the world's population. 50-100 million people.