Kim will be on it guaranteed, and probably as Champion. Mao is the wild card. If she does all her big jumps she could even win the gold over Kim, but she is inconsistent, and I would be a bit surprised if she even skated as well as 4CCs at Worlds, and if she has enough problems might not even medal. I still thinks he will medal. I would be surprised if Kostner defended her title as she isnt doing hard enough jumps to keep up with Kim and Asada, but I still see her on the podium again in silver or bronze. So I will go with the safe and pick the 3 veteran stars. Wagner, Sotnikova, or Tuktamysheva could spoil if they skate perfectly and Asada has a series of problems with her tough jump layout, or Kostner with her already safe technical programs doesnt skate cleanly.

Kim will be on it guaranteed, and probably as Champion. Mao is the wild card. If she does all her big jumps she could even win the gold over Kim, but she is inconsistent, and I would be a bit surprised if she even skated as well as 4CCs at Worlds, and if she has enough problems might not even medal. I still thinks he will medal. I would be surprised if Kostner defended her title as she isnt doing hard enough jumps to keep up with Kim and Asada, but I still see her on the podium again in silver or bronze. So I will go with the safe and pick the 3 veteran stars. Wagner, Sotnikova, or Tuktamysheva could spoil if they skate perfectly and Asada has a series of problems with her tough jump layout, or Kostner with her already safe technical programs doesnt skate cleanly.

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I generally agree with this assessment. This is going to be a great show if the top ladies, particularly the three champion veterans, skate well.

Worlds is totally different from this season's 4CC.
This 4CC was held in Mao's home ground Japan, and she got a skyrocketing score with her Free Skating despite a bunch of e's and <'s.
I think this was possible only because it took place in Japan.
Watching this 4CC reminded me of another version of Japanese Nationals.
Will this happen in London again? Nah.

Based on their current form, I think it may be a close fight between Kim, Mao and Caroline. I do not know how well Kim is performing and whether she is back to old form. But do believe she's a force to be reckon when she's top of the game. If anyone of these skaters falter, then perhaps Korpi, Tut, Adelina, Wagner have a chance to stand on the podium.
Whatever, good luck to them all.

Worlds is totally different from this season's 4CC.
This 4CC was held in Mao's home ground Japan, and she got a skyrocketing score with her Free Skating despite a bunch of e's and <'s.
I think this was possible only because it took place in Japan.
Watching this 4CC reminded me of another version of Japanese Nationals.
Will this happen in London again? Nah.

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No she wont get that score for the same LP at Worlds in Canada, but she will be a good 5 points or more ahead of everyone not named Yu Na Kim if she does the same SP she did at 4CCs, and will likely hang onto a medal even with a so so ish, but not disaesterous FS like 4CCs.

No she wont get that score for the same LP at Worlds in Canada, but she will be a good 5 points or more ahead of everyone not named Yu Na Kim if she does the same SP she did at 4CCs, and will likely hang onto a medal even with a so so ish, but not disaesterous FS like 4CCs.

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Mao scored 129.84 @ GPF w/4 clean triples and a few UR calls. There's no reason to think that her 4CC score was inflated due to skating in Japan. If she goes for the same content as 4CC, with the same level of success, I expect she will score around 130 again.

Kostner scored 130.52 @ Euros w/4 triples and a few doubles. Her PCS there were a bit higher than Mao's in 4CC, but you can't really compare PCS across comps, especially when the difference is not significant.

Kim scored 129.34 @ NRW in December, w/6 triples, one fall (on a 2T) and very high PCS.

If all three skate at 80% of their potential they should all be on the podium. They all have at least 0.5 pt advantage over the rest of the field in every PCS category (this is not necessarilly right for every category but you know that's how the judges work). That is a 6-point (maybe even 10) advante over everyone else. If even one of them skates near 100% (and that assumes at least 6 triples) we should see some skyrocketing marks.

I would not be surprised if Kostner defends her title. That last minute of her FS is so rich and intense, it will have a marvelous inpact on her PCS. If she stays on her feet and lands that final 3S...

I disagree w/ the previous post. Mao and Carolina got some benefit of the doubt from the judges at 4CC's / Euros that will probably not happen again at Worlds. I doubt Mao will get over 130 pts for an LP riddled with UR's and Carolina will not get over 130 pts. for 4 triples and no difficult combinations. Mao skated in her backyard and Carolina was a stone's throw away from hers. This time, they'll compete in NA. And we will see how Carolina functions when forced to go full-throttle to defend her crown against the likes of Yu Na (no small task), and how a UR-prone Mao does against her old rival in top form. I would pick Mao as the second most likely to be on the podium, simply because she has been on a comeback trail and could skate lights out in the SP, thus building a buffer, as pointed out by JudgeJudy.

HOWEVER, just based on momentum right now, I would still make both of them very slight favorites over Ashley just because of Ashley's last 2 competitions. But, you have to admit that Ashley as a slight underdog is a great position for her. She's avoided 4CC's to train and could do very well, knocking one of them off the podium. Of all the top ladies, she's probably the most ambitious, competitive and has tightened her jump technique under Nicks. One worry is that it still remains to be seen whether the GPF / Nationals mistakes were caused by some weird extraneous circumstances, or she's allowing nerves to creep in, and unfortunately we won't know that until she steps on the ice in London, Ontario (I've got the Xanax ready ... ) but, Akiko was pretty disastrous at her Nationals and look at her now. I would bet that Ashley can do the same thing.

I think Adelina and Liza are doing just fine and peaking at the right time, but I'd put them a rung underneath the above 4, notwithstanding Adelina's score at Euros. They'll get a push from their Fed but unless the above 4 make mistakes, they'll probably be just final group material. Adelina is NOT helping herself with the music in that LP. And Liza has been prone to SP slip-ups. Plus, I think there a little too green.

Akiko is doing well, but she's stuck as the no. 2 Japan lady. It seems like Mao is sucking up all of the JSF's promotional value. It may have to do with Akiko's age and that she's taking it year by year, thus she gets no long term investment from the JSF.

What is Kiira's status. I think she may slip backwards just by virtue of her injuries

Mao scored 129.84 @ GPF w/4 clean triples and a few UR calls. There's no reason to think that her 4CC score was inflated due to skating in Japan. If she goes for the same content as 4CC, with the same level of success, I expect she will score around 130 again.

Kostner scored 130.52 @ Euros w/4 triples and a few doubles. Her PCS there were a bit higher than Mao's in 4CC, but you can't really compare PCS across comps, especially when the difference is not significant.

Kim scored 129.34 @ NRW in December, w/6 triples, one fall (on a 2T) and very high PCS..

I would love to see if there's been two years, five or more apart, where the podium contained the same three skaters. Any discipline. Because that really seems just completely out of the ordinary.

But yes, that's what I'd predict now.

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The nearest thing I can think of is the men at Europeans in 2006 and 2010 - only 4 years apart, but they were exactly the same - Plushenko, Lambiel, Joubert. I don't think it's ever happened at Worlds, so it would be remarkable & show just what great skaters all 3 are if Yuna, Mao & Carolina could all medal this year.

Potentially, this years worlds could be the best in ages. If Mao, Yuna, Carolina, Sot, Tuk, Suzuki, Wagner, Gold, Murakami et al. skate their best, this could be a crazily deep competition. This year will be a battle to just finish top ten, and truly give some validity to that result. I hope it all pans out.

Potentially, this years worlds could be the best in ages. If Mao, Yuna, Carolina, Sot, Tuk, Suzuki, Wagner, Gold, Murakami et al. skate their best, this could be a crazily deep competition. This year will be a battle to just finish top ten, and truly give some validity to that result. I hope it all pans out.

^What exactly is Leonova's status?? She's bombed all year and the Russian Fed sent Gosviani over her to Euros. Slap in the face. But, Leonova is a world medalist. When will they make a decision? Worlds is now less than 1 month away ...

Kim will be on it guaranteed, and probably as Champion. Mao is the wild card. If she does all her big jumps she could even win the gold over Kim, but she is inconsistent, and I would be a bit surprised if she even skated as well as 4CCs at Worlds, and if she has enough problems might not even medal. I still thinks he will medal. I would be surprised if Kostner defended her title as she isnt doing hard enough jumps to keep up with Kim and Asada, but I still see her on the podium again in silver or bronze. So I will go with the safe and pick the 3 veteran stars. Wagner, Sotnikova, or Tuktamysheva could spoil if they skate perfectly and Asada has a series of problems with her tough jump layout, or Kostner with her already safe technical programs doesnt skate cleanly.

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I agree with this statement except I would ditch Sotnikova for Suzuki imo.

Of all the top ladies, she's probably the most ambitious, competitive and has tightened her jump technique under Nicks.

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I have to ask . . . what makes you claim that Ashley Wagner is the most ambitious of all the top ladies when she hasn't attempted a 3+3 combination all season long in either of her programs? It's just interesting that one would claim that Wagner is the most ambitious of the ladies now when she only attempts one 3Lutz over both of her programs and attempts no triple+triples and someone like Joannie Rochette was endlessly criticized for playing it too safe when she was attempting three 3Lutzes over both of her programs and attempting a 3toe+1loop+3Salchow at the 3 minute mark of her LP. Ashley's jump technique also still has problems; her 2Axel can be downright scary with its lack of height, she still flutzes, and still two-foots her jumps when she is nervous. Her loops and Salchows have provided some scary falls this season too at her past 2 events.

^What exactly is Leonova's status?? She's bombed all year and the Russian Fed sent Gosviani over her to Euros. Slap in the face. But, Leonova is a world medalist. When will they make a decision? Worlds is now less than 1 month away ...

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Reportedly Russia's World team will be finalized following the Cup of Russia Final in Tver, February 16-19.

I agree with this statement except I would ditch Sotnikova for Suzuki imo.

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Sotnikova has more technical ammunition than Suzuki, difficult triple-triple combinations and bigger jumps, and her PCS wont be much lower than Suzuki who doesnt get especialy high PCS that the bigger stars do. Suzuki has been quite inconsistent this season too. Sotnikova has also but seems to be getting better with each event. Most importantly of all though Sotnikova might be considered the Russian #1, or atleast shares that support equally, while the Japanese support is clearly 100% behind Mao and Mao only. I personally think Sotnikova has a better chance than Suzuki at Worlds, and 70% or more likely will finish higher. I dont expect either on the podium this year though.

Sotnikova has more technical ammunition than Suzuki, difficult triple-triple combinations and bigger jumps, and her PCS wont be much lower than Suzuki who doesnt get especialy high PCS that the bigger stars do. Suzuki has been quite inconsistent this season too. Sotnikova has also but seems to be getting better with each event. Most importantly of all though Sotnikova might be considered the Russian #1, or atleast shares that support equally, while the Japanese support is clearly 100% behind Mao and Mao only. I personally think Sotnikova has a better chance than Suzuki at Worlds, and 70% or more likely will finish higher. I dont expect either on the podium this year though.

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I don't expect either to be on the podium but I'd bet a shiny nickel that Akiko will place higher. Again super theoretical I'd also say that Akiko has shown pretty darn good consistency this season although Sotnikova is clearly on the rise.

ps in reality I just can't mentally handle the idea of the Christina Aguilara long program placing ahead of Akiko's masterpiece of a program to Cirque's O.

I have to ask . . . what makes you claim that Ashley Wagner is the most ambitious of all the top ladies when she hasn't attempted a 3+3 combination all season long in either of her programs? It's just interesting that one would claim that Wagner is the most ambitious of the ladies now when she only attempts one 3Lutz over both of her programs and attempts no triple+triples and someone like Joannie Rochette was endlessly criticized for playing it too safe when she was attempting three 3Lutzes over both of her programs and attempting a 3toe+1loop+3Salchow at the 3 minute mark of her LP. Ashley's jump technique also still has problems; her 2Axel can be downright scary with its lack of height, she still flutzes, and still two-foots her jumps when she is nervous. Her loops and Salchows have provided some scary falls this season too at her past 2 events.

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I meant competitive in that I think she's motivated to try hard and skate well when she has others pushing her.