While some of the comments hit some good facts, truth be told that the avg consumer will go after ANYTHING if it has the word "FREE" in it. In this case my neighbor had visions of grandeur with all that FREE FUEL but the thing is it comes with a price!

That price is limited availability, range, hassle to refuel (only 1 station in the so called local area) and not being able to take that car on long trips ,etc,etc. Put that Mirai up against USED Model S with unlimited SpC'ing and see how things stack up.

JasonA wrote:While some of the comments hit some good facts, truth be told that the avg consumer will go after ANYTHING if it has the word "FREE" in it. In this case my neighbor had visions of grandeur with all that FREE FUEL but the thing is it comes with a price!

That price is limited availability, range, hassle to refuel (only 1 station in the so called local area) and not being able to take that car on long trips ,etc,etc. Put that Mirai up against USED Model S with unlimited SpC'ing and see how things stack up.

Hopefully, H2 dies out soon.. total joke..

Hydrogen isn’t going to die for light duty vehicles when:

1) Toyota has spent billions “proving” how awesome it is2) Japan and California, as well as Europe, heavily promote and favor hydrogen3) the H2 car car get “super credit” over a battery electric car, to wit:

California Air Resources Board (CARB) - Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV):

a. ZEV credits - 9 for hydrogen -(2015-2017 Model year’s only) vs- 1 to 4 credit for EV. This hydrogen benefit has been changed for model years 2018 and beyond to align with EVs.

b. $5000 California rebate for each hydrogen car sold -vs- $1500 or $2500 for hybrids and EVs

c. Exemption from "traveling provision" for hydrogen -vs- EVs must be sold in all 10 ZEV states starting MY2018. That means that a hydrogen car need only be sold in Cailoforna to qualify for CARB-ZEV credit in every CARB-ZEV state.

d. $20 million spent per year by the state of California, every year, for hydrogen infrastructure -vs- no guaranteed funding for EV infrastructure

So it's possible we're seeing cannibalization of Mirai sales by the Clarity FCEV, which is generally a better deal if you have a longer commute (or need a fifth seat). As both cars are weirdmobiles and the market has shifted towards CUVs, I expect the upcoming Hyundai Nexo may well outsell both of them, although it will only arrive in Q4 so probably not for the year. IMO it's a nice looking CUV, and hopefully Hyundai can get the MSRP down to $50k or less.

Guy [I have lots of experience designing/selling off-grid AE systems, some using EVs but don't own one. Local trips are by foot, bike and/or rapid transit].

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'.Copper shot, not Silver bullets.

I've always been super interested in the sales trends, especially because Toyota is quite secretive about it. What I've been able to figure out so far:

- The vast, vast majority of FCEVs is sold to government agencies, municipalities, etc. You can see this clearly in the yearly leasing cycle- The other big impact is ZEV credits and local subsidies, which are most obvious in the end-of-year peak, this is mostly aimed towards buying consumers- Demand is very closely tied to availability of filling infrastructure. New station opened? Suddenly 150-200 Mirais get sold and then that's it. Base sales of Mirais/Claritys seem to be about 100/mo- Nobody keeps their FCEV beyond the free fuel period

This means you get some interesting data when comparing units sold to units registered. We're now just seeing the first vehicle stopping to receive free fuel, and with the high hydrogen prices basically nobody is keeping the Mirais.

This year, CA signed a bill that can allocate up to $40k per vehicle in tax credits, specifically for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. Additionally, there is supposed to be a new bill that signs off on another '200' hydrogen filling stations, even though the last bill for '100' filling stations only produced 28. So by that logic, there may be ~100 filling stations in CA by 2025 and a market for a couple hundred FCEVs per month, maybe up to 1000 if the network effect kicks in.

I'm not sure that the Nexo will really help much. It's retailing in SK for 70 million KRW, that's about $65000. Almost exactly the same as the Mirai, so I think it'll likewise be a $70k car. They're not actually trying to sell this car, clearly it's either just made for compliance or otherwise to show off their 'commitment' to hydrogen to legislators.

IMO, the hydrogen cars on the market right now are doing it all wrong. Hydrogen fuel celll systems are way too expensive and cumbersome for small vehicles, at least at this stage, and it makes no sense to sell them at such a high price premium. What they should be doing, and IMO what would be a signifier of a company truly serious about hydrogen, is if one of the big automakers releases a plug-in electric-fuel cell hybrid. Something with both a decent battery (say 24 or 30kWh) and a small range extender fuel cell, say 10kW or so. That would be easily cheap enough to make a car that sells well and gets consumers accustomed to hydrogen without the range anxiety of not having anywhere to fill up. Because contrary to pure BEVs, HFCEVs are really limited in where and how much you can drive them, and that's not going to change within the next decade.

mux wrote:I've always been super interested in the sales trends, especially because Toyota is quite secretive about it. What I've been able to figure out so far:

- The vast, vast majority of FCEVs is sold to government agencies, municipalities, etc. You can see this clearly in the yearly leasing cycle

I've never noticed that. Have any data on that? Have any direct data about it going to govt entities? I've yet to see any Mirais or FCEVs here in the Bay Area that have CA exempt plates. They all seem to be leased by private individuals. There's at least 1 or 2 at my work. It helps that the H2 fueling station is down the street. I sometimes see a Mirai fueling there. Haven't stopped to say hi or check their plate.

I sometimes see one running around my area (near home). I don't recall if it's the same color and same Mirai that's parked on the driveway of a street connected to mine.

I sometimes see some Mirai's getting onto highway 17 but never got a close enough look to see if it belongs to anyone at work. I don't think the colors are right.