Focus is on Montana ex-governor Brian Schweitzer as Max Baucus exits

Now that veteran Sen. Max Baucus (D-Mont.) has announced his retirement, all eyes are turning to another Montana Democrat: former Gov. Brian Schweitzer.

Schweitzer, the two-term governor who left office in January, is the prospect national Democrats are hanging their hopes on in the now-open Montana Senate race. If Schweitzer gets in, he’d bring a high approval rating, high name ID and a profile independent from President Barack Obama and national Democrats — all things that could help them hold a difficult seat in a red state.

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Harry Reid on Baucus's retirement announcement

If Schweitzer doesn’t enter the race, the Democratic field is less clear — and Republicans, who have long had the state on their radar as a top target, would have a strong shot at capturing the seat next year.

“The reality is this a great pickup seat opportunity [for Republicans] — it’s just going to come down to who steps up from each party to run,” said GOP strategist Nick Everhart.

Mitt Romney won Montana by 14 points last November. But incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Tester also won reelection there last fall, which makes national Democrats optimistic about their chances in the state. DSCC Chairman Michael Bennet said Democrats’ groundwork that helped Tester defeat former Rep. Denny Rehberg is a hopeful sign that the party can hold on to Baucus’s seat next year.

“Democrats built an unprecedented ground game in Montana in 2012 when Senator Tester was reelected,” Bennet said in a statement, “and we will continue to invest all the resources necessary to hold this seat.”

National Democrats see Schweitzer as a candidate at least as formidable as Baucus — if not more so.

A Public Policy Polling survey from February found Schweitzer doing better against the potential GOP field than Baucus. He’d lead Rep. Steve Daines 48 percent to 45 percent, while Baucus would have trailed Daines by 5 points. Schweitzer also led GOP prospect Champ Edmunds by 15 points, state Attorney General Tim Fox by 6 points and former state Sen. Corey Stapleton by 10 points.

The only GOP prospect against whom Schweitzer did not come out ahead was former Gov. Marc Racicot. Schweitzer trailed him by 1 point.

“Whether or not this is a boon for Republicans is totally dictated on whether Schweitzer decides to stay out of this thing,” said a GOP consultant familiar with the state’s politics.

The former governor has a big personality within the state: One Democrat familiar with Montana politics called him “bombastic.” As governor, he was known for the “veto” brand that he would stamp on pieces of legislation he rejected.

“He’s more Montana than Montana. He ought to be the state mascot,” said the GOP consultant.

Schweitzer’s brand of in-your-face politics has won him many fans: The February PPP poll found him with a 56 percent approval rating among Montana voters, including a 93 percent approval rating among self-identified Democrats.