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Thursday, May 5, 2011

Overview of the major secular bear markets during the last 100 years inflation adjusted S&P composite
A great perspective on how the current bear market look like compared to the major previous bear markets. Take a closer look at these interesting charts from The Chart Store and compare.

During the whole period 1870 - 2011 showing Secular Bear Markets, notice that a Secular Bear market consist of a series of cyclical of ups and downs as can be seen in the charts. This is also the case in the fourth (and last) Secular Bear market that is currently unfolding:

Source: The Chart Store. Click on the image to get a larger picture.

Here is the current 2007-09 Bear Market:

Source: The Chart Store. Click on the image to get a larger picture.

The dominant seven year cycle is expected to bottom in 2016. This fit well with the average forward time projection from the three previous cycles lasting 191 months which gives the year 2016 to look for the next major bottom, However, the longest cycle indicates December 2019 to look for a major bottom and that time is more in line with the Kondratieff cycle and the demographic spending wave.

And the prior bear markets,WWI, Great Depression, and The 1970s bear:1906 – 1921 Bear Market

Source: The Chart Store. Click on the image to get a larger picture.

1929 – 1949 Bear Market

Source: The Chart Store. Click on the image to get a larger picture.

1968 – 1982 Bear Market

Source: The Chart Store. Click on the image to get a larger picture.

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