Thursday, March 15, 2007

I feel like that shill on the Monday afternoon sports talk shows who's pitching his football picks.... but I'm going to do it anyway.

I'm not an expert at GDR, however, I have had very good success with teams drafted using these principals. Many of them are just simple arithmetic, as you will see shortly. But the bottom line is, they worked for me last year, to the tune of a 65-30 record (.684), three playoffs, two titles, and top 1 or 2 in scoring in all four leagues. I scored over 7000 points in all four leagues I played in. Suffice it to say that these strategies worked well for me, but of course four leagues isn't a huge sample size. Still, given the inherent mathematics and logic, and the successful record, I'm not about to change my tune.

Now, on to some interesting numbers. I've argued that Pujols is a must get, and I've argued in favor of nabbing Utley as well. Let's now look at the position scarcity numbers. I tried to determine, for each position, the difference between the top guy, and the the average guy at that same position. Assuming a twelve team league, here are how my projections break down. The average is the average of guys 2-12:

1st base - top guy is 180 points better than average2nd base - top guy is 131 points better than averageSS -top guy is 130 points better than averageOF - top guy is 122 points better than average3B - top guy is 98 points better than averageC - top guy is 116 points better than average

SP - Top guy is 89 points better than averageRP - Top guy is 85 points better than average

This, of course, makes Pujols the best of the best, by a wide margin. I think that almost everyone could also agree who is the top 2B, SS, C and SP, but the other positions don't have a clear cut number 1. For that reason, I believe in targeting these six guys, but these numbers are very revealing IMHO. If you can get two or three of those top six, I think you gain a significant edge. I stand by my view that depth is worthless, because it doesn't earn points. Put your money in the field, not on the bench, and invest in the studs. It's my view of a winning team.