Monday, January 19, 2009

Future Baseball Hall of Famers Still Active in Baseball

January 19, 2009 Update - Congratulations to Rickey Henderson and Jim Rice for their election into the Baseball Hall of Fame. Henderson was elected on first try by a wide margin (almost 95% of the vote); Rice on his last by a whisker (76% vs. 75% required).Here's an update on the prospects of various candidates for future induction into the Baseball Hall of Fame.

Sure things if they stopped playing today

Ken Griffey, Jr. - Junior hasn't announced his retirement, but by the same token he doesn't have a job for the 2009 season. I'll leave him on this list. He's a sure first-ballot Hall of Famer.

Randy Johnson - The Big Unit will be pitching for his 300th career win sometime this season with the Giants. He's a first-ballot Hall of Famer whether or not he gets it, though 300 wins could propel him toward unanimous selection.

Tom Glavine - Missed most of 2008 season with injuries; trying to get healthy and find a job in 2009. In any event, with 300+ career wins, Glavine's a first-ballot lock whenever he's eligible - no later than 2015 as it's likely he'll pitch no more than one more year.

John Smoltz - Missed most of 2008 season with injuries, but has a job with the Red Sox in 2009. Needs to get healthy. If he gets healthy and does well, he could play beyond 2009. Effective retirement after 2008 is also a possibility if he doesn't recover. With 200+ wins and 150+ saves and a sterling postseason record, Smoltz will get into the Hall of Fame the first time he's eligible.

Trevor Hoffman - The all-time saves leader will be saving games for a new club in 2009, the Milwaukee Brewers. Pitching just 40-50 innings per year, Hoffman could go on for awhile. In any event, he's a first-ballot Hall of Famer whenever he retires.

Mariano Riviera - At age 38, this amazing pitcher had one of his greatest seasons - 1.40 ERA, 39 saves, 0.665 WHIP, 6 (yes six) BB and 77 Ks in 71 IP. His 482 saves are second all-time to Hoffman's 554 (516 to 558 if postseason is included). Arguably the greatest reliever of all time, Rivera is a sure first-ballot Hall of Famer and could top 95% of the vote.

Alex Rodriguez - A-Rod continues his inexorable march up the all-time leader ranks. At age 33, he's 12th all-time in HRs (553), 30th in RBIs, 42nd in runs, figures that would put him in the Hall of Fame if he retired tomorrow even without a World Series ring, which the Yankees' acquisition of CC Sabathia and Mark Teixiera makes more likely. Unanimous election in 15-20 years is likely if A-Rod beats Bonds' career HR record.

Derek Jeter - Jeter's got the stats (2,500 hits) and World Series rings (4) to get into the Hall of Fame on the first ballot if he retired tomorrow, which he won't. Some day in the 2020s, "Mr. Baseball" Jeter will be a first-ballot, and perhaps unanimous selection to the Hall of Fame.

Ivan Rodriguez - Pudge is still looking for a job for 2009. He'll find one if he's willing to work cheap. Otherwise, he'll enter the Hall of Fame in 2014 with one of the best offensive and defensive resumes in catching history.

Manny Ramirez - Manny doesn't have a job for 2009 either, but it's unlikely he won't get one. With 527 regular season HRs and 28 more in the postseason, Ramirez will be a first-ballot Hall of Famer whenever he's eligible, though unlikely to gain unanimous support because of concern about "Manny being Manny."

Pedro Martinez - After struggling with injuries the last two years, Martinez's career may come to an end. Even with seven seasons in the top four of Cy Young voting (three wins), Martinez may not gain first ballot election given that he only has 214 career wins, but he'll make it eventually on the strength of a .684 career winning percentage and 2.91 ERA.

Jim Thome - Thome finished the 2008 season with 541 career HRs, 14th all-time. His 966 OPS is 18th all-time. Now a full-time DH, Thome probably has a couple more seasons left, making him eligible for the Hall in about 2016, at which time his 600 career HRs should make him a first-ballot inductee.

Chipper Jones - A fabulous 2008 season (.364 batting average) pushes Jones into the "sure thing" category. Playing most of his career at 3B, Chipper has racked up 408 HRs and a 956 OPS. He won an MVP and played for many good teams, including one World Series winner in Atlanta. He might not be a first-ballot Hall of Famer if he retired today, but he'd get in soon. When he does retire, Jones will have the full resume of a first-ballot Hall of Famer.

Would be sure thing except for steroid issue

Sammy Sosa - Sosa wants to play, but didn't in 2008 and probably won't in 2009. I'll keep him on the "active" list until next year.

Would be sure thing except for DH issue

Frank Thomas - "The Big Hurt" is the right-handed version of Jim Thome, with a few more DH games and a higher batting average. After a disappointing 2008, Thomas will likely retire when he can't find a job for 2009. I think Thomas will get in, though probably not on the first ballot.

Don't need much more, if anything

Jeff Kent - 2008 was likely Kent's last season. He'll finish with 377 HRs, 1500+ RBIs and an 856 OPS - great offensive figures for a second baseman. He'll probably make the Hall of Fame some day, but not on the first ballot.

Vladimir Guerrero - Vlad finished the season with 392 career HRs, 2100+ hits, 1268 RBIs and a .323 batting average - well on the way to the Hall of Fame, but probably a couple decent seasons from being a sure thing.

Curt Schilling - Schilling couldn't come back from injury in 2008. I expect that his career is over. With just 216 career wins, Curt isn't a lock for the Hall, though his 10-2, 2.23 ERA record in postseason starts won't hurt. I predict he'll get in, although probably not on the first ballot.

Gary Sheffield - After his worst offensive season since 1991 (and this as a DH), Sheffield will probably finish his career with 499 HRs, one short of the magic mark. He won't get a lot of points for being a nice guy either. My guess is that Sheffield will spend a long time on the Hall of Fame ballot, and like Jim Rice, finally get in.

Great careers, but need more milestones

Todd Helton - Helton had a rough 2008 that puts his Hall of Fame candidacy at risk. His batting average (.328) and OPS (1002) are terrific (though perhaps inflated by Coors Field), but his career totals (1900 hits, 310 HRs, 1100 RBIs) are a little thin for a 1B candidate. Helton needs to rebound or he'll fall into the "promising, but falling off" category.

Carlos Delgado - A great 2008 (particularly the second half) propels Delgado into the Hall of Fame discussion. He's hit 469 career HRs and has a 929 career OPS. Another good season would push Delgado over 500 HRs and make him a very viable candidate, though not a likely first-ballot inductee.

Once promising, but have fallen off lately

Nomar Garciaparra - Once on a clear HoF trajectory, Nomar is now hanging on to his career at just age 34. His current career stats make him a marginal HoF candidate, supported mostly by a .314 BA and 888 OPS for a shortstop. Like Don Mattingly, Nomar will probably stay on the ballot a long time, with his hopes eventually landing with the Veterans' Committee.

Andruw Jones - Andruw probably killed his HoF chances with a hideous 2008 season (.158 BA, 76 Ks in 209 AB). His career may even be over. Ten Gold Gloves and 377 HRs might get Jones past the 5% hurdle, but he won't ever be a Hall of Famer.

Scott Rolen - 2008 didn't revive Rolen's Hall of Fame prospects. Physical problems will end his career soon. At this point, he wouldn't survive the 5% threshold.

Omar Vizquel - Vizquel's career is probably over after a very weak season with the Giants at age 41. Eventually, even eleven Gold Gloves and 2600+ career hits will leave Omar on the outside looking in.

David Wells - Boomer's 239-157 career record will be considered by voters in 2013 and may propel him over the 5% threshold. His 4.14 career ERA will keep him out of the Hall for a long time - maybe forever.

Mike Mussina - Probably has the best shot to make it of the players on this list. He retired after the 2008 season with 270 career wins and .638 winning percentage. A 3.68 career ERA will hurt his chances, but I think he'll make it someday, though certainly not on the first ballot.

Miguel Tejada - Miguel has piled up some great offensive numbers for a SS (272 HR, 1900 hits), but has been touched by the steroid issue. He did not have a great 2008 and may be on a downslope at age 34.

Jason Giambi - Giambi had a nice comeback season in 2008 and has a job with the A's for 2009. He has 396 career HRs, but being a 1B/DH and being involved in the steroid issue, he'll have to get to 500 HRs to have any chance at the HoF.

Andy Pettitte - Andy's steady 14-year career may be nearing its end. Supporting his HoF candidacy - .629 winning percentage and 14 postseason wins. Working against him - just 215 career wins at a 3.89 ERA. His career resembles that of David Cone, who missed the 5% threshold this year.

Jose Mesa - Retired after 2007. 4.38 ERA - no chance.

Billy Wagner - Career in jeopardy after injury that will keep him out for 2009. Fabulous numbers thru 2008 - 385 saves, 2.40 ERA, 1.009 WHIP, 1066 Ks in 818 IP. That last figure might keep Wagner out - just 818 IP. Once he gets on the ballot, he'll stay there. I don't know if he'll make it. Bruce Sutter might the best comp - he made it after a long stay on the ballot.

Bobby Abreu - A good, steady player, but rarely a great one, Bobby has a lot of work to do to become a clear HoF candidate.

Luis Gonzalez - Gonzo was great in 2001, just good in his many other seasons. His best stat is doubles where is total of 596 is 15th all-time. He probably stays on the ballot, but ends up with the Veterans Committee and never getting in.

Edgar Renteria - Now an everyday SS for 13 years, Renteria has 2,070 career hits, but still doesn't feel like a HoFer (just five All-Stars, three Silver Sluggers and two Gold Gloves).

Johnny Damon - After 14 years, Damon has 2,270 hits and a .289 BA. Unless he can somehow hang on and reach 3,000 hits (at least five years work), Damon won't make the Hall.

Playing at H of F level but early in career - special category

Albert Pujols - Have played just eight seasons, Pujols wouldn't even make the ballot if his career ended early, but two more seasons even remotely like the previous eight will put the best right-handed hitter of the 21st century on a clear HoF track.

Ichiro Suzuki - The AL's version of Pujols (albeit a singles-hitting, rather than power-hitting machine), Ichiro probably needs more than two more good seasons to eventually make the HofF (though 2,200 hits and a .330 average might get the job done). At age 34, Ichiro should have four or so more seasons to put his candidacy on strong footing.

Decent foundations, but need many more good years

Troy Glaus - A 3B with excellent power numbers (300+ HR, almost 900 RBI), but weak in other areas (.256 BA, 1271 hits). He needs to play several more productive years to become a serious candidate.

Lance Berkman - In nine solid seasons, Berkman has amassed 1449 hits, 288 HRs and a 973 OPS. Another five good seasons will make Lance a viable candidate.

Carlos Beltran - In 10 seasons he's hit 250+ HRs and stolen 250+ bases, scored and driven in about 1000 runs, while establishing himself as a Gold Glove CF. Five more good years and a World Series ring would make Carlos a strong candidate.

David Ortiz - After five straight top five MVP seasons, Ortiz fell off badly in 2008. His career figures aren't that imposing. He probably doesn't have enough good seasons left to amass a HoF resume.

Johan Santana - 109 wins, .689 winning percentage, 1.102 WHIP at age 29. He'll need six great seasons to line up with Pedro Martinez and even more to become a sure Hall of Famer.

Roy Halladay - 131 wins, .665 winning percentage at age 31. Roy needs at least five more big seasons to get in the HoF discussion.

Roger Clemens - assuming he stays retired, a candidate for 2013 induction. A lot could happen between now and then with The Rocket's various legal battles. Once a possible unanimous inductee, Clemens could end up in a McGwire-like limbo.

Greg Maddux - with 355 career wins and a scandal-free career, now-retired Maddux is sure thing for induction in 2014 and a strong candidate for unanimous support, though it's likely that some stickler will prevent this.

Craig Biggio - retired after 2007 season with 3,000+ career hits - eligible for induction in 2013. A likely first-ballot selection with no chance of being a unanimous selection.

Barry Bonds - wanted to play in 2008, but by all accounts should be considered retired after 2007. Despite an amazing career, the steroids issue leaves Bonds' election in 2013 in doubt.

Mike Piazza - likely first-ballot Hall of Famer in 2013 as the best hitting catcher of all time.

Roberto Alomar - eligible in 2010 - great career through age 33; retired by age 36 - still amassed 2700 hits, 1500 runs and 400 SBs. Not first ballot, but soon.

Edgar Martinez - eligible in 2010 - great hitter at peak of career; career totals (2247 hits, 309 HRs) would seem to fall short, especially for a DH. Will stay on ballot but eventually go to Veterans' Committee.

Fred McGriff - eligible in 2010 - just seven short of magic 500 HRs. Election possible but not assured.

September 20 Update - I've made two changes. First, Jim Thome, hitter of 540 career home runs, moves from "needs more milestones" to "sure thing" as he continues to contribute (33 HRs 87 RBI) as DH of the NL Central-leading White Sox.

Also Jim Kaat moves off the list. He's in the hands of the Veterans' Committee now, along with Ron Santo, Vada Pinson and several other players who came close but never met the 75% threshold.

I'll consider other changes at the end of the regular season. Getting no help from 2008 season were Andruw Jones, Nomar Garciaparra, Scott Rolen and Dontrelle Willis. Veterans helping their prospects were Mike Mussina, Carlos Delgado, Chipper Jones and Lance Berkman. New to the watch list should be Miguel Cabrera and Troy Glaus.

January 18, 2008 Update - I added some notes at the bottom based on the recent Hall of Fame election for 2008 in which Rich "Goose" Gossage was elected. Congratulations to a very deserving inductee who dominated hitters as both a starter and workhorse reliever over his long career with nine different major league teams.(photo from art.com)

July 2007- Here's a list to chew on - potential future baseball Hall of Famers that are still active. Let me know your thoughts. Who's miscategorized? Who did I miss? Who shouldn't be there at all? Why?My source is www.baseball-reference.com. They track Bill James' Hall of Fame Monitor stat, which awards points for various season and career accomplishments.

Sure things if they stopped playing today (in order of "sure-thingedness")Roger Clemens (#2 All-time pitcher in James' Hall of Fame Monitor stat) - moving down "sure-thingedness" list based on Mitchell Report allegations.Greg MadduxKen Griffey, Jr.Randy Johnson (#4 on same list)Craig BiggioBarry Bonds (would be higher except for steroid issue - #9 all-time position player)Tom GlavineJohn SmoltzTrevor HoffmanMy first list ended here. After doing some research, I added these names (moving them up from the "don't need much more" group)

Don't need much more, if anything:Jeff Kent - not as strong a candidate as I thought, but I'm leaving him here as he's the all-time HR leader among 2B.Vladimir GuerreroCurt Schilling - great post-season record helps.

Great careers, but need more milestonesGary SheffieldChipper JonesJim Thome - moved to "sure thing" 9/20/08Todd Helton - moved up from promising but falling off

Once promising, but have fallen off latelyNomar GarciaparraAndruw JonesScott Rolen - not as good as I thought; would need a career rejuvenation to get there.

Long careers but still not sure by any meansOmar VizquelDavid WellsCarlos DelgadoJorge Posada - probably too far away statwise, but does have four rings and is hitting better than ever

The above two need their own category. They've amassed HoF-worthy points in seven years. But they wouldn't make it they had a career ending injury tomorrow. Probably should move up to "more milestones" category.Still too early to tellCarlos BeltranDavid OrtizLance BerkmanJohan SantanaRoy HalladayJimmy RollinsJose ReyesDavid Wright

Jim Rice - 71% of vote in 2008; 2009 is last year of eligibility for induction by writers.Mark McGwireLee SmithGoose Gossage - elected for induction in 2008.Jim Kaat - 9/20/08 - now under Veterans' Committee consideration

Bert BlylevenDale MurphyAndre DawsonDave ParkerTim Raines - new to the ballot in 2008. Only player new to ballot to make 5% cut.

It's been ages since i posted here. Been sick, busy etc. There are not many games left this season. It has had it's up's and down's. Meet some new Reds i adore. Meet David Ross again. Knew of him when was a Dodger. Missed Sean Casey a lot. Reds then got rid of Austin Kerns. Seen the Reds 9 times this year at Busch Stadium. Saw the Phillies 3 times. Seen The Astros 3 times. Gonna see the Astros for my 4th time September 13th. Gonna go to games in 2 weeks to see Brian Giles.No idea who will make the playoffs.First Choice Reds. Second Choice Phillies. 3RD Astros. 4TH Choice Padres. Padres just because of Brian Giles, Geoff Blum and Trevor Hoffmann. I hope to at least attend one playoff game. But if the Cards don't make it won't go to any. Because i can't afford to travel. But if i had to choose. I'd rather the Reds win the Central and just have to watch them on tv.Seeing them on tv would be better than them not making the playoffs at all.The best place for mlb, baseball finals, Baseball tickets. For more information visit: http://www.bet911.com

Andy Pettite and Mariano Rivera without a doubt should be higher. There is only one guy to ever play in the MLB with more post season wins than Pettite, John Smoltz and look where you have him. Pettite is behind by one win. If the Yankees continue to play how they have so far he wont get it but if they make the playoff for the 14th time in 14 years then he has a pretty good chance of tying or passing Smoltz. Also, "Mo" has the most dominant pitch in all of baseball with his cutter and he is 3rd in career saves. He has a post season ERA of .77 and more post season saves than any other pitcher. He even finished in 3rd place in Cy Young voting in 1996 as a SET UP MAN of all pitching roles. He is one relief pitcher that is without a doubt a shoe in for the hall of fame. Not to mention he's playing some of his best baseball in his 14th season.

I agree that Rivera is a sure thing for the HoF. My revised list puts him in that category.

As for Pettitte, I'm not so sure. His postseason record is great, but so was Jack Morris's and he's not in the HoF yet. He has barely 200 career wins and an ERA of almost 4.00. I don't think I can move him up. He could get in based on retiring after 2008, but it will take several years of voting. He would have a better chance by pitching a few more years and getting to 250 career wins.

Enjoyed reading your list of Future HOFs. With such an extensive list it would be hard not to hard a disagreement or two. As a Yankee fan, I'll single out Mike Mussina to move up to the "Don't Need Much More" category. Moose has a 256-146 record, 50 more wins than Pettitte and 40 more than Schilling with the same number of losses. While his ERA is a quarter point higher than Curt's, he has a comparable WHIP (if HOF voters pay attention to that stat). The days of the 300 win pitcher could be a thing of the past. Aside from Randy Johnson (and perhaps Mussina) it could be a decade before we see another 300 win pitcher. On the flip side, I think the 500 home run milestone has ceased to be a HOF number for batters, though that's another story. Thanks for your list.

You make a good point about Mussina. Though he's never won 20 games in a season, he's been a steady winner for almost his entire career. His BB/K ratio is excellent and his ERA is OK at 3.71. He won't get in on the first ballot, but might not have to wait too long, even if he retires after 2008 season. Getting to 275 wins would shorten his wait considerably.

I went on the HoF website for lists of newly eligible players by year. Here are my choices that could survive the 5% cutoff.

I don't think Cabrera's career has been long enough to rank with Pujols and Ichiro. If he suffered a career ending injury tomorrow, there would be talk about his potential, but no groundswell about a H of F plaque.

Frank Thomas had fabulous offensive stats, and played first for some of his career. I could probably move him to the "could retire tomorrow" group, unless a performance enhancer story breaks about Thomas.

I agree with most of your picks. I have a question for you. What has your experience with myteamrivals been. They asked me to do a blog on the Oakland A's. I'd be interested in your thoughts. beebee723@earthlink.net.

i think chase utley has a pretty good chance, he is the best second basemen in the league by a mile and he is many more great years. Ryan Howard needs to keep hittin homeruns and rbi's cause his avg. won't do it. Then finally i don't know why people are skeptical about todd helton. He is Great! His avg. is 328 with over 325 dingers and over 500 doubles that is a very exlcusive club along with people like babe ruth.

Omar Vizquel should absolutely be in the HOF...he is the Ozzie Smith of the 90's with a better bat and more power. I believe the two are equal defensively and Ozzie stole more, but the two are very similar.

miguel Tejade IS HOF worthlyDecade just ending hes 4th most HITS 4th most RBI'Ss3RD ALL TIME HRS now after passing 277 HR mark by BANKS 12 FULL SEASOM 15 RBIS short of 1200,1 OF 3 SS to ever have 5 seasons in a row 100+ FAST TO 2000 hits 7 OF 12 full season 177 or more hits 177 179 199 199 3x200+ 6X AS02 MVP AL With OAKLAND Athletics1 RBI title MLB LEADER WITH 1502x Doubles leader one NL 46 One MLB 502x S.S ALMANY DOUBLE LEADER 1200+A.S Game MVP5X300+avg3x200=HIT10X30=doubles highs 40-42-46-504x20=4X30=hrs6X100=RBISYR TO YR AT 971 GLOVE HES AS SS LEADER AMONG GAMES tc double plays and AST.was rate 330 BEST PLAYER OF DECADE BUT ONLY WAS 2ND s.S IN TOP 30

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What about Jaime Moyer, he has of now 266 career wins and a roberto clemente award and world series ring, he also has no intentions of retiring soon. three complete games and a shutout at age 48 is pretty good.

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I'm a 50ish husband and father (that's my beautiful almost-17-year old daughter in the pic) living in Baton Rouge, LA and recently retired from a chemical company. Among my interests are sports (especially baseball), photography, Scrabble, trivia, travel, traffic safety, and eating!