I think Boyhood might very well dominate the critics' groups -- there just aren't too many candidates that feel hip enough and mainstream enough to fit the usual profile of these winners. (Birdman would be another one; I saw Selma yesterday, and though I thought it was quite good, it's way more traditional, and I wouldn't expect it to triumph anywhere but maybe NBR among pre-televised ceremonies.)

Mike Leigh's acting candidates have had trouble getting much farther than critics' groups (both Sally Hawkins and Lesley Manville got tripped up despite critical cheering), but there seems to be at least one wide-open Best Actor spot (perhaps more, if one of the presumed frontrunners is more vulnerable than we think). The bloggers have basically been ignoring Spall as a legitimate nomination threat, but I've thought since Cannes he'd be in the conversation, and this at least ensures that.

In response to Mister Tee's big post, I meant to write a mini-analysis of the contenders on the fringe of the Best Actress race, and my hunch was that critics' groups might rally around Marion Cotillard's two performances given the thin field. (I actually would have pegged her a very likely candidate for LA, and I still think she'd be a safe way to bet there, given the foreign trend in Best Actress.) I haven't yet seen Two Days, One Night, though it seems like a stretch that a Dardenne film would produce a mainstream awards candidate...but are we underestimating her as a potential for The Immigrant? It was a period drama with some critical cache, but there's nothing inaccessible about it -- it's not going to offend older voters -- and Cotillard has a solid enough central role. Might the thinness of the field cause voters to look back to one of the few remotely viable candidates from the spring?

Speaking of the Immigrant, I wouldn't write it off in the Cinematography category either. It's a very handsome-looking movie, literally from that first foggy shot of the Statue of Liberty.

I think J.K. Simmons is just going to be a steamroll to the inevitable.

I do hope the critics groups go all over the place with Supporting Actress -- there are a ton of strong candidates in that field, though Arquette is, of course, plenty worthy.

I agree with what Mister Tee wrote vis a vis The LEGO Movie. The NY critics have nearly always gone with a foreign/arty option when available in this category, so this is a boost.

I'm sure it is. The biggest surprise for me today was Timothy Spall for Mr. Turner over Michael Keaton for Birdman. That seemed right up their alley. We all have been saying for a bit that this season is going to look a lot like Birdman or Boyhood. I think there are more Boyhood people in New York. It makes more sense for Boyhood to win in New York. They've tended to be a little more middlebrow these days. LA seems more like a Birdman crowd.

"If you are marching with white nationalists, you are by definition not a very nice person. If Malala Yousafzai had taken part in that rally, you'd have to say 'Okay, I guess Malala sucks now.'" ~ John Oliver

Also, without runners-up we don't truly know what its performance was. For all we know, it ran second in multiple categories. (Though the rapid reporting of film/director suggests Boyhood was an easy winner in those categories)

Kind of a big boost for The LEGO Movie -- NY has favored foreign/indie entries in animated feature (Triplets of Belleville over Finding Nemo, Persepolis over Ratatouille, The Illusionist over Toy Story 3). The only Pixar efforts they chose were The Incredibles and Wall E.

It'll be interesting to see if Simmons/Arquette become a Waltz/Mo'Nique win-everywhere machine, or if other groups decide to share the wealth. (Something I'd guess is already underway for both actor and actress)

Boyhood probably needs a Hurt Locker-like sweep of the oldtime critics groups, to offset its decent but mot great box office, if it really wants a run at the best picture Oscar. I'm still inclined to think Selma could top it in the end, but this is a good start.

I also think it has something to do with membership. This group has Rex Reed, who called Birdman " A miserable load of deranged, deluded crap masquerading as a black comedy."

"If you are marching with white nationalists, you are by definition not a very nice person. If Malala Yousafzai had taken part in that rally, you'd have to say 'Okay, I guess Malala sucks now.'" ~ John Oliver

"If you are marching with white nationalists, you are by definition not a very nice person. If Malala Yousafzai had taken part in that rally, you'd have to say 'Okay, I guess Malala sucks now.'" ~ John Oliver

"If you are marching with white nationalists, you are by definition not a very nice person. If Malala Yousafzai had taken part in that rally, you'd have to say 'Okay, I guess Malala sucks now.'" ~ John Oliver

Best Actress: Marion Cotillard (for The Immigrant and Two Days, One Night)

"If you are marching with white nationalists, you are by definition not a very nice person. If Malala Yousafzai had taken part in that rally, you'd have to say 'Okay, I guess Malala sucks now.'" ~ John Oliver