Stephen R. Reed, "Party
strategy or Candidate Strategy: How Does the LDP Run the
Right Number of Candidates in Japan's Multi-Member
Districts?" Party Politics, 15 (May 2009),
295-314.

First paragraph:
Under the single non-transferable vote (SNTV) in the
multi-member district electoral system used to elect the
Japanese House of Representatives from 1947 through 1993,
political parties were faced with the strategic problem of
matching the number of candidates to their total vote.
Running too many or too few candidates risked losing a seat
that could otherwise have been won. A party might, for
example, be able to win three seats in a five-member
district if it ran three candidates, but could only win two
seats if it ran four. If it ran three candidates, they might
finish third, fourth and fifth behind two candidates from
other parties and, since the first through the fifth
candidates were awarded seats in a five-member district, all
three candidates would be elected. If the party ran four
candidates, however, they might finish fourth, fifth, sixth
and seventh behind three candidates from other parties,
leaving the latter two candidates without seats. This
phenomenon was known in Japanese as tomodaore (falling
together) and avoiding tomodaore was the primary goal of
nomination policy.

Figures and
Tables:

Table 1. The probability of jiban exit for LDP
candidates

Figure 1. Simulation results

Table 2. How to gain an LDP nomination (logistic
regression model)

Figure 2. Estimated probability of gaining the
nomination

Table 3. How to lose an LDP nomination (logistic
regression model)

Last Paragraph:
I have argued that the LDP became an arena for candidate
competition because it was incapable of enforcing an
effective nomination policy. Though there is no space here
to go into detail, I can report that the LDP is still
failing even under a new electoral system designed to
produce more coherent parties. In the 2005 election, the LDP
refused to nominate those members of the Diet who voted
against Prime Minister Koizumi's pet project, postal
privatization. However, all of those who ran as independents
and won have been allowed to rejoin the LDP. The legacy of
the 'if you win, you are LDP' rule that I have described in
this article continues to dominate LDP nomination
policy.