Tim Wilkin: Medal Count victory among many Derby possibilities

Tim Wilkin

Updated 9:08 pm, Friday, May 2, 2014

Louisville, Ky. -- California Chrome is the best horse in the field of the 140th Kentucky Derby. No one is going to argue with that. He is the fastest 3-year-old colt in the 19-horse field. Even his name sounds fast.

Because he is the best horse, he is also the favorite. And there is absolutely no fun in picking the favorite, especially in the biggest race of the year, the one America has always loved to watch.

There is money to be made in the Kentucky Derby, especially if you have the courage to toss the choice. In the past six years, two Derby favorites (Big Brown in 2008 and Orb last year) have won. In between you have had winners like I'll Have Another ($32.60), Animal Kingdom ($43.80), Super Saver ($18.00) and the mother of all upsetters, Mine That Bird ($103.20).

There are too many things that can go wrong in the Kentucky Derby, not just for the favorite, but for any horse. If all things are equal in the Derby, yes, California Chrome is the best horse and he should win.

The Derby, though, is never equal or fair. So we are going elsewhere.

After Wicked Strong's wicked run in the Wood Memorial, I had him on top, but after he drew the far outside post, I cooled on him a little bit. And Wicked Strong is the 6-1 second choice. Can he win? Yes. But I am looking for value.

I landed on a 20-1 shot named Medal Count. Dale Romans, the Louisville-born trainer of Medal Count, was as blunt as blunt could be when talking about the Derby and his horse.

"In my personal opinion, there are more horses in here that don't have a chance than a lot of other years," Romans said. "But I think half the field can win the race. I would give eight or nine a chance to win, including mine."

Medal Count is a son of Dynaformer (he sired 2006 Derby winner Barbaro) and is coming off a second-place finish in the Blue Grass on the synthetic track at Keeneland. Romans said his colt has improved dramatically since the winter in Florida and is about ready to break through with a huge effort.

Medal Count has impressed Romans -- and other horsemen -- with his actions on the track at Churchill in the mornings. Romans said that Dynaformer colts sometimes take awhile before getting a full grasp on what they are supposed to do on the track. That time, he said, is here.

"I think he is the best horse in the race," he said.

I told Romans I had heard him say that before a big race, and he immediately challenged me on that one. He said he has only said it a handful of times and about horses like Dullahan, Paddy O'Prado and Shackleford. None of them won the Kentucky Derby, but Dullahan (2012) and Paddy O'Prado (2010) were third, both at 12-1, and Shackleford was fourth in 2011 at 23-1. He then won the Preakness at 12-1.

If Romans is right, and Medal Count is on his game, he will be one of the horses making a late run. I see him, Wicked Strong and Intense Holiday as the best closers and all of them have a chance to win this. Don't toss Arkansas Derby winner Danza and the consistent New York-bred Samraat.

I was interested in General a Rod, who was my Florida Derby pick, but I don't think he gets the distance. Wildcat Red, who was second in that race, never runs a bad one. You could use him, too, but you can't use them all.

There figures to be plenty of speed up front and California Chrome will be sitting right off it before making his move. Unlike his races in California, I think he will have pressure all around him. And that will eliminate him.

And that sets it up for a fast-closing closer. I think it will be Medal Count.