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2/28/2007

Final countdown

Twelve days 'til Selection Sunday and I still don't see Michigan as an NCAA team unless they beat Ohio State this weekend and win a game in the Big Ten tournament.

I know the Wolverines beat Michigan State yesterday, but the Spartans remain the superior team. Drew Neitzel was playing on fumes. Two possessions into the game it was obvious he didn't have the motor to run off screens like he usually does, and after the game his face was pale (OK, paler than usual) and his voice sounded in need of some serious chicken noodle soup. Neitzel's sidekicks, Drew Naymick and Raymar Morgan, were seriously under the weather, too. I won't go as far as to say MSU would have won if all three were healthy, but I'm sure the Spartans would like a rematch in Chicago.

As for Michigan, the Wolverines' only hope of getting in the tournament is for Dion Harris to keep playing like he did Tuesday (24 points). He's a good player, and it's a mystery how he's able to disappear in Michigan's offense like he has at times this year. Seriously, if I were Tommy Amaker I'd use Harris sort of like MSU does Neitzel. Harris doesn't need as many screens to get open and is better at creating his own shot, but Michigan's offense is brutal without him.

If you're a bubble-watching Michigan fan, Saturday's game shouldn't be your only one of interest this week. You want teams like Butler (Horizon), Winthrop (Big South) and Gonzaga (West Coast) to win their conference tournaments this week to keep as many at-large bids as possible open. MSU fans should be cheering for the same thing, though I still believe MSU makes the tournament with one win in Chicago. As the league's seventh or eighth seed, that shouldn't be a problem.

Prospecting at the combine

LSU quarterback JaMarcus Russell just got off the dais and it's clear, if the first pick went on looks, he would go No. 1 overall. At 6-foot-5 and 265 pounds Russell is a monster of a man. He has a huge frame, enormous hands, and no one was too surprised when he said he could throw a football "83, 84 yards" in the air.
Russell will not work out, throw or do anything other than meet teams in Indy, so fans will have to wait until LSU's pro day March 14 to drool over his final numbers. Regardless, it's apparent there's not much he can do other than grace the police blotter to fall off the top of most mock drafts. If the Raiders don't want him at No. 1, they won't have any trouble finding suitors who do.
As for the prominent Big Ten quarterbacks in Indy, expect Drew Stanton to solidify his stock as the draft's No. 3 signal caller with a strong workout. Stanton will run, throw and jump on Sunday. He appears to be in good shape, and the training he's taken part in since almost the day MSU's season ended should lead to a solid 40 time. I still expect him to slot somewhere at the end of Round 1 or go early to a team in Round 2. Yes, Lion fans, Detroit is a distinct possibility.
Ohio State's Troy Smith is more of a mystery. There are teams that like him enough to make him a late first-day flier, but he's not expected to run in Indy - a big mistake in my opinion - and he measured only 6-foot. Unlike Russell, he has some things to prove at his pro day.

Waiting game

Still hanging out at the NFL combine here in Indianapolis, waiting for Drew Stanton to finish his testing, and I thought it was appropriate to share some of Lions president Matt Millen's comments from earlier today.

Stanton is in the running to be the third quarterback drafted along with Stanford's Trent Edwards and Kevin Kolb of Houston, and by all estimations he should help himself with a good performance. How good will help determine where he goes in the draft and to who.

"I don't know how people view him right now, but after today they'll view him a lot better," Millen predicted. "He's one of those guys that at the end of the day they'll say, 'Boy, this kid really helped himself.' I'll be shocked if that doesn't happen. I think that kid is good."

Staying in State

You can officially move Michigan State off the tournament bubble and into the tournament after Saturday's win over Indiana.
At 21-8 with the toughest schedule in the Big Ten, no out-of-place losses and quality wins over Wisconsin, Texas and BYU, the Spartans have done enough to clinch their 10th straight NCAA bid, even if they lose their last two games. The only thing left to determine now is seeding.
How high do I think MSU can go? My preseason prediction — a six seed — still is possible if the Spartans win at Michigan Tuesday, but really it doesn't matter as long as they avoid the 8-9 game.
If I'm an MSU fan there's only a couple teams that scare me. The Spartans just don't have enough athleticism to compete with Florida, North Carolina, UCLA and Kansas, and three of those teams will probably be No. 1 seeds (and by extension, MSU's potential second-round opponent).
Take Georgetown, Texas A&M and Ohio State and Wisconsin out the mix — the Big Ten champ should get a No. 1 seed, the other three teams slide to the two line — and there's not another team out there MSU would be a significant underdog to. That doesn't mean they'd beat everyone else, but I'd take my chances with a Memphis, Nevada, Southern Illinois, Pitt or Washington State.
Bottom line is MSU is playing good basketball. They're still not a great team, but the streak is alive and the Sweet 16 is a realistic possibility.

Staying in State

You can officially move Michigan State off the tournament bubble and into the tournament after Saturday's win over Indiana.

At 21-8 with the toughest schedule in the Big Ten, no out-of-place losses and quality wins over Wisconsin, Texas and BYU, the Spartans have done enough to clinch their 10th straight NCAA bid, even if they lose their last two games. The only thing left to determine now is seeding.

How high do I think MSU can go? My preseason prediction  a six seed  still is possible if the Spartans win at Michigan Tuesday, but really it doesn't matter as long as they avoid the 8-9 game.

If I'm an MSU fan there's only a couple teams that scare me. The Spartans just don't have enough athleticism to compete with Florida, North Carolina, UCLA and Kansas, and three of those teams will probably be No. 1 seeds (and by extension, MSU's potential second-round opponent).

Take Georgetown, Texas A&M and Ohio State and Wisconsin out the mix  the Big Ten champ should get a No. 1 seed, the other three teams slide to the two line  and there's not another team out there MSU would be a significant underdog to. That doesn't mean they'd beat everyone else, but I'd take my chances with a Memphis, Nevada, Southern Illinois, Pitt or Washington State.

Bottom line is MSU is playing good basketball, the streak is alive and the Sweet 16 is a realistic possibility.

Waiting game

Still hanging out at the NFL combine here in Indianapolis, waiting for Drew Stanton to finish his testing, and I thought it was appropriate to share some of Lions president Matt Millen's comments from earlier today.
Stanton is in the running to be the third quarterback drafted along with Stanford's Trent Edwards and Kevin Kolb of Houston, and by all estimations he should help himself with a good performance. How good will help determine where he goes in the draft and to who.
"I don't know how people view him right now, but after today they'll view him a lot better," Millen predicted. "He's one of those guys that at the end of the day they'll say, 'Boy, this kid really helped himself.' I'll be shocked if that doesn't happen. I think that kid is good."

Gold rush

I was sitting courtside on the baseline underneath the home basket yesterday when a thousand or so Spartan fans, mostly Izzone members, piled on to the floor to celebrate Michigan State's 64-55 win over Wisconsin.

As the final seconds ticked down and the court charge became apparent, my first thoughts were the same as the guy with the painted chest sitting behind me. He tried to talk the rest of the student section, or at least the handful of fans sitting near him, out of storming the court. "We've won championships," he said. "We don't rush the court here." Then when everyone ran past him in jubilation, he shrugged his shoulders and joined the fray.

He wasn't the only one, either. Flintstone and founding program member Antonio Smith, now a student assistant, was in the back of the mosh pit jumping up and down in his blue dress shirt and tie. The current cast of Spartans were somewhere in the middle, hugging and high-fiving fevered fans.

"It was an unbelievable atmosphere and something I'll never forget," Drew Neitzel said. "It's not every day that the crowd rushes the court or you have a celebration like that. Even when we went to the Final Four it wasn't like that. It was fun."

Michigan State and the Izzone will take some heat for rushing the court. There's a safety risk involved, and in mob scenes like that you always run the risk of a drunken fan stepping over the line with opposing players.

But Tuesday night's celebration was good-natured fun, a way to celebrate a milestone victory - MSU's first ever regular-season win over a No. 1 team - and one that likely locked the Spartans a spot in the NCAA tournament.

Don't kill the fans for their celebration. Like Tom Izzo told the Mike and Mike radio show Wednesday, "It's just part of the excitement. ... I don't have a problem with it, I really don't. We have to watch that we don't overlegislate and make all things boring."

Ins and outs

Purdue is looking more and more like an NCAA tournament team. The Boilermakers manhandled Indiana Thursday night and have now beaten the Hoosiers, Michigan State and Illinois - the rest of the Big Ten's middle tier - by double digits. All those games were home, where Purdue is a much different team than it is on the road, but if the Boilermakers can score one more win away from Mackey Arena (at Iowa or Northwestern) and defend its homecourt against Minnesota and Northwestern in the final week, they'll get to nine conference wins, enough for an invite.

That doesn't necessarily mean it's over for Illinois or MSU. Both teams have stronger overall resumes than Purdue, and one should get a chance for a rematch in the 4-5 game of the conference tournament. Illinois, 6-6 right now, has a manageable four-game stretch upcoming (vs. Northwestern and Michigan, at Penn State and Iowa), but expect the car accident that sidelined two players to lead to two more losses. And without Jamar Smith, as bad a season as he was having, Illinois is not as good a team in the eyes of the committee.

I still contend MSU needs two more wins in any shape or form to get in. A victory over a top-five Wisconsin team almost counts double in the committee's eyes, but beating Iowa Saturday and winning at Michigan should do the trick as well, especially if its coupled with a Big Ten tournament win.

As for Iowa and Michigan, they need to win out to stand a chance. The Hawkeyes dug too deep a hole in the non-conference season, while Michigan dug its grave by beating no one of consequence in the first two months. These final two weeks should be interesting.

Signing day side dishes

A few leftover thoughts from Wednesday's National Signing Day: - Who knows how these things will eventually turn out, but all the critics who panned Michigan's class early were quiet in the end. Cornerback Donovan Warren could start as a freshman, and Ryan Mallett is the quarterback the Wolverines have long targeted as their future. Next year, it's imperative Michigan sign a big-time running back like California stud Darrell Scott or Birmingham Detroit Country Day star Jonas Gray. I saw Gray play basketball the other night, by the way. The kid has Barry Sanders-like legs.

- Michigan State's class lacked definite star power, but it's clear new coach Mark Dantonio made recruiting Ohio a priority. The Spartans signed seven players from the Buckeye state, including defensive tackle Antonio Jeremiah and defensive back Chris Rucker. "Coach Dantonio's name means a lot with a lot of high school coaches in the state and he's proven that he can recruit it successfully," Rivals.com analyst Jeremy Crabtree said. "I definitely think they're going to be a fixture in the Buckeye state."

- MSU still hopes to add two players this winter. If they don't, inking a top quarterback and help at linebacker and rush end will be priorities next year.

- I know Illinois had a great class, but word on the street is a couple signees will be academic casualties. There's a couple top-line stars, no doubt, but when we look back in a couple years that and the late loss of quarterback Clint Brewster to Minnesota will make the class look average. I'm not a big Juice Williams guy.

- Brewster was a steal for his dad, new Minnesota coach Tim Brewster. My hunch is that we're going to see a change in offensive philosophy for the Gophers. Brewster is a heck of a recruiter and if he can convince Minnesota prep star Michael Floyd to stay home next year, Minnesota will have a top passing attack when it opens its new stadium in a few years.

U-G-L-Y, State ain't got no alibi

Now that Michigan State's dismal 62-38 loss to Purdue has sunk in, it's clear the Spartans are in trouble. They have a week off after four straight losses and enter a four-game homestand with absolutely no room for error.

If MSU is to make the NCAA tournament, the Spartans must win their next four games. That includes a home date with fourth-ranked Wisconsin Feb. 20. An upset of the Badgers is one of the few things MSU could do to offset that ugly performance Wednesday. A 24-point loss to a mediocre team, no matter where it's played, does not look good in the selection committee's eyes, and you better believe they were watching.

Last year, the committee said it watched as much basketball as possible and used its own eyes to help determine which teams deserved inclusion in the field of 65. That produced arguably the most compelling tournament ever with George Mason reaching the Final Four, and remains a selection committee staple going forward.

Wednesday's performance was easily MSU's worst of the year and once again highlighted the Spartans' myriad of offensive deficiencies. Unfortunately, those don't just disappear at home (as evidence by a brutal first half against Illinois earlier this year and tough final five minutes last week against Ohio State).

If MSU can't run the table at the Breslin Center (or win at Wisconsin in the season finale), the Spartans will need a road upset of Michigan and at least one, probably two, Big Ten tournament victories to go dancing for the 10th straight year.

All a-board

If Michigan State doesn't make the NCAA tournament next month, the Spartans will look back on this current three-game losing streak and kick themselves for squandered opportunities.

Nobody expected them to win at Ohio State last week, and after falling behind 20 points at halftime nobody figured a comeback was in the works. But there the Spartans were, a bucket away from winning in the final minutes and they couldn't get a shot to fall. Well, they did get one shot to fall, a 3-pointer by Maurice Joseph, but it was nullified by a moving screen call and Joseph and Drew Neitzel missed good looks down the stretch.

As any coach will tell you, missing shots is excusable. What cost the Spartans wins Tuesday at Illinois and Saturday in the rematch with Ohio State is not. For a team that's supposed to be built on grit and hustle and blue-collar play, MSU sure didn't show much of it in a few crucial stretches in each game. Against Illinois, with the Illini missing free throw after free throw to keep the Spartans in the game, MSU failed to box out on a crucial miss. Illinois grabbed the rebound and went on to score and put the game away. Yesterday, another offensive board on a missed free throw came back to bite the Spartans when they had a chance to take the lead.

"We worked on (boxing out on free throws) yesterday, day before and three different times during our walk-through today," MSU coach Tom Izzo said. "(Assistant coach Jim Boylen) looked at me like I was on drugs to say, what are you doing? I said we should have done it one more time because those kind of plays when you're a team that has very little margin for error are critical."

And that's exactly what MSU is entering its seven-game, season-ending stretch that begins Wednesday at Purdue. In all likelihood, the Spartans need to go 4-3 to make the NCAA tournament. That means sweeping their remaining home games or, considering they host No. 2 Wisconsin, more likely stealing one on the road (Wednesday's game and a Feb. 27 date in Ann Arbor are the most winnable).

"We definitely got to win some games now," guard Drew Neitzel said. "We knew this was going to be a really tough stretch with Ohio State twice, at Illinois, at Purdue, Wisconsin coming up twice, Michigan twice. We're in these games, we just got to do those little things to get over the hump and get the wins."

Take three?

Just a hunch, but I think Michigan State and Illinois will meet again in the 4-5 game of the Big Ten tournament the second Friday in March.

Expect Illinois to get on a roll now that its schedule goes to Little Debbiesville. The Illini will be dogs in one game this entire month (at Indiana, Feb. 10) and should close the year 6-1 (or 5-2 at worst). That'll be good enough for nine conference wins and a fourth-place finish.

MSU is in line to win eight or nine Big Ten games as well. If they get to .500, they should snag an NCAA invite. Ditto for Illinois if it's 9-7 in the Big Ten. Still, whichever team loses the re-rematch at the United Center will be sweating bullets come Selection Sunday.

As for Michigan, what more can be said? The Wolverines sealed their fate in the NIT (again) with Wednesday's inexcusable home loss to Iowa. Dion Harris disappeared, and Tommy Amaker might be the next to go.

About Me

Paula Pasche, a veteran sports writer, covers the Lions for The Oakland Press. She has written a book, "100 Things Lions Fans Should Know & Do Before They Die" which is available at bookstores and on Amazon.com. She won first place for column writing from the Society of Professional Journalists in Detroit (Class B) in 2011, 2012 and 2013 and was The Oakland Press 2010 Staffer of the Year.