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What if the Pacers hadn't traded Kawhi Leonard for George Hill in 2011?

Kawhi Leonard and Paul George will be playing together for the Los Angeles Clippers. Sound familiar? They, of course, were briefly, technically, on the Indiana Pacers in 2011.

Let's get this out of the way first: It's nonsense to expect the Pacers to have kept George and Leonard in 2011. Leonard was drafted to be traded for George Hill. No one knew what Leonard was going to become. He shot 29.1% on 3s his final season of college and was 6-7, 225 pounds. In other words, he wasn't an NBA power forward. No one in 2011 was adding Leonard to a team with Paul George and, don't forget Danny Granger, who had scored 20-plus points for three consecutive seasons.

But if it's nonsense, let's have some fun and pretend Larry Bird could see into the future. How would the Pacers' history have changed if they had kept George and Leonard:

Kawhi Leonard greets NBA Commissioner David Stern after he was selected No. 15 by the Pacers during the 2011 NBA Draft. He was then traded to San Antonio for George Hill.(Photo: Mike Stobe, Getty Images)

2011-12

The first change, of course, is that the Pacers don't have George Hill.

They'll need a backup combo guard to play behind the starting backcourt of Darren Collison and George. This is an easy hole to fill: San Antonio signed Patty Mills to replace Hill, so we'll have the Pacers sign Mills. Mills isn't as good as Hill (and he only played 16 games in 2011-12) but is a reasonable replacement.

Now the biggest question: If you have George, Granger and Leonard, do the Pacers sign David West? I say yes. None of the three are legitimate starting power forwards in the 2011-12 NBA, Leonard is on a rookie contract and Mills is making $1 million, so the salaries aren't significantly different.

Leonard supplants Tyler Hansbrough as the first forward off the bench. Leonard was good as a rookie — 7.9 ppg, 5.1 rpg, and shoots 37.6% from 3 — but hardly transformational at this point. Maybe Indiana takes Miami to seven games in the Eastern Conference semifinals. More likely, it's still a 4-2 Miami win.

2012-13

With George Hill on the roster, the Pacers dealt Darren Collison (and Dahntay Jones) to Dallas for Ian Mahinmi to open a spot in the starting lineup. Mills hasn't demonstrated he's anything more than a backup, so Collison has to remain.

This makes a big difference. Win shares aren't a perfect statistic but it is an effort to provide a single number that accounts for how many wins a player is worth. Hill was worth 9.7 win shares in 2012-13, Collison 5.6. That's a net loss of four wins.

But Granger is hurt and the Pacers' decision to keep Leonard pays off. George remains at shooting guard — his position the previous season — and Leonard slots in at small forward. Leonard is worth 6.2 win shares but he's effectively taking Lance Stephenson's minutes, and his 5.5 win shares. So the Pacers are now down three wins.

But let's assume Stephenson makes the same breakthrough, only it's coming off the bench backing up George and Leonard, and playing a little point guard. Give him 2.8 wins shares, 1.5 better than Gerald Green. (And the Pacers are losing Mahinmi for a likely inferior backup center.)

That leaves the Pacers, roughly, one win worse ... and the four seed instead of the three seed. That means they play a Bulls team that knocked off fourth-seeded Brooklyn instead of Atlanta. But let's assume the Pacers beat the Bulls, they've then got the Heat in the second round. Does the one-point Heat win in the actual 2013 Eastern Conference finals become a Pacers' win with Leonard on the roster? Does that mean Indiana upsets the Heat, plays a Knicks team in the Eastern Conference finals and advances to the NBA Finals ... where they face San Antonio?

I think Miami still finds a way to beat the Pacers, but it's a legitimate question.

2013-14

I don't see any significant offseason moves. Collison is a free agent and the Pacers need to upgrade at point guard but Chris Paul isn't signing here, leaving the most likely options as Jose Calderon and Jarrett Jack. Calderon's a little better than Collison, Jack's a little worse; let's split the difference and assume Collison is re-signed.

Patty Mills has established himself as a backup point to Collison so no need to sign C.J. Watson but Luis Scola is still an upgrade as a backup power forward.

The Pacers signed Andrew Bynum in 2013-14, and with no Mahinmi, there's no reason to think they wouldn't have made the same move. Roy Hibbert is still broken and Bynum plays two games and is done.

With Stephenson coming off the bench, there's no need to trade Danny Granger for Evan Turner. Would the Pacers have made another deal for Granger? Perhaps. Point guard would have needed an upgrade but Granger was damaged goods by this point, limiting his trade value. Andre Miller and Jason Terry were dealt in 2014 but neither would have provided much value.

George Hill was worth 7.8 win shares in 2013-14, Kawhi Leonard 7.7. (Let's take a minute to appreciate just how good Hill was during this stretch for the Pacers.)

Having Lance Stephenson coming off the bench is an edge over the spare parts the Pacers used so give them an extra win or two but they were already the No. 1 seed. Would a 22-year-old Kawhi Leonard averaging 12.8 points and 6.2 rebounds make a difference against the Heat? Probably. Matching up George and Leonard with Dwyane Wade and LeBron James — with Stephenson coming off the bench — is the best an NBA team could hope for. Would it have turned a 4-2 series loss to the Heat in the East Conference finals into a series win? I don't think so.

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2014-15

Despite the disappointing end to the 2013-14 season, there's no reason not to run it back.

Then Paul George breaks his leg.

Kawhi Leonard's 2015-16 breakout with the Spurs comes a year earlier with the Pacers and is worth 13.7 win shares, a 10-win edge on Solomon Hill. The 48-win Pacers are the five seed, beat the Raptors then lose to the top-seeded Hawks in the second round.

Everybody dreams of the Leonard-George tandem.

2015-16 and beyond

At this point, it gets really difficult to project.

Hibbert's still likely sent packing but David West stays to play with Leonard and George. No need to sign Monta Ellis. Are they in on DeAndre Jordan? Brook Lopez? Is Brandon Knight the answer at point guard or Goran Dragic? Probably not, too expensive.

Lou Williams or Patrick Beverly are more likely point guard targets in the Pacers' price range. The best to hope for at center is Bismack Biyombo, with rookie Myles Turner backing up.

The Pacers are likely a 55-win team, better than the actual two-seeded Raptors but not as good as the Irving-Love-James Cavaliers.

It gets interesting in 2016-17 as Thad Young replaces David West, Myles Turner steps into the starting lineup. The Pacers don't have Hill to trade for Jeff Teague but then they're in contention with the Irving-Love-James Cavs again to play the Durant-Curry Warriors in the finals.

Then, after the 2016-17 season, George and Leonard force the Pacers to trade them both to the Clippers.