The Gulf slick and hurricanes: Your questions answered

With the rapid onset of hurricane season (just 10 days now) I’ve been receiving lots of questions about the effects, if any, of the Gulf oil slick on hurricane activity.

The answer is something of a mystery to scientists, as well. Those interested in modifying hurricanes (a fruitless task, by the way) have long contemplated covering the surface of an ocean with a substance, thereby blocking evaporation as a means of cutting off a storm’s access to “fuel” for intensification. Oil is one such substance.

For answers I turned to state climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon, who can be found at Climate Abyss.

Will the oil slick inhibit the strengthening of storms?

We’re going to find out. A frequently proposed hurricane-modification idea in the past has been to distribute an environmentally inert film to cut off heat and, and more importantly, moisture to hurricanes. The problems with that was finding a substance, and distributing it widely. Well, now we have that substance.

But the big question is, how do you keep it on the surface of the water? With hurricanes there’s wave action, spray, mixing, and an ample supply of water evaporating and getting into the air. Somehow the oil has to remain on the surface near the eyewall. A storm’s intensity is driven by the evaporation within and close to the eyewall, the innermost 40 or 50 miles of the hurricane depending on its size.

So a hurricane would have to go directly over a largely undisturbed slick to see an effect.

How will the wind and waves of a hurricane disperse the oil?

The wind action would help drive the spill quite a bit further than we’ve seen so far, depending on how strong and slow moving the hurricane is. If the hurricane, and all of its wave action, makes a direct hit on the slick it will break it up and try to mix it into the upper layer of the ocean. Being oil it wouldn’t mix well.

Should we be concerned about a storm’s surge bringing oil well inland, into sensitive wetlands or communities?

Storm surge is a pretty messy thing anyway. When Ike made landfall in Galveston there was damage to oil exploration facilities on the other side of Galveston Bay that left a pretty big slick. It didn’t get a lot of attention with all the other problems. So oil would add onto the impacts of the hurricane, probably cause additional problems, but people would probably be more worried about other things.

Smiley Pool/Chronicle

Oil slicks in floodwater surround a pumpjack September 14, 2008 in High Island, Texas.

Like losing their homes?

Like losing their homes.

Any reason to think the upper Texas coast will see oil on its beaches soon?

The flows coming out of the Mississippi River and Atchafalaya River are generally carried westward along the immediate coastline, toward Texas. So if the slick gets to those areas, it could be carried west.

The Loop Current in the Gulf is another question. It periodically forms closed eddies that drift westward. One of these eddies could bring oil westward. So there’s nothing out there that’s preventing oil from making it to Texas eventually, but the currents haven’t been taking it in that direction so far.

35 Responses

We’ll never get the truth about the ongoing effects of this catastrophe, because apparently BP now OWNS the Gulf and the Coast Guard! And what charges exactly, are they going to make against this film crew?! Outrageous, and our “government” just sits idly by, allowing their sociopathic corporate masters to run the despicable show.

From what I’ve been reading, it doesn’t look like the oil, in its current size, will have much impact on a hurricane. I do think there’s potential for washing a lot of nasty stuff on shore though. Imagine that oil getting into drinking reservoirs.

I swear to everything this is holy, if this oil spill ruins Miami Beach, I will not just boycott BP. I will gather up an army of millions, march down to the homes of all the BP executives, and we will each take a huge dump on thier yards!. Yea, I said it!

I am curious if Eric could provide some context to the amount of pollution that the BP Macondo Spill is producing relative to all the other Gulf of Mexico pollution from man made sources.

For example, what is the collective pollution discharged into the major river systmes that drain into the Gulf of Mexico from say Corpus Christi to Mobile? I am thinking people will be astounded by the amount of pollution the Mississippi river carries alone, let alone the Colorado, the San Jacinto, the Trinity, the Calacasieu, the Atchafalaya, etc.

Is there a way to collect that data, and compare it to a 5000 bpd spill? I don’t know if you can separate out hydrocarbon discharge pollution from chemical, fertilizer run-off, etc in the freshwater drainages, but I think it would be interesting comparative to look at what we already were puttintg into the GOM vs what the spill is currently doing.

Additionally, and this data would be very hard to quantify, have you ever looked at Lake Maracaibo in Venezuela? I am curious how much oil natually seeps into that body of water, as well as what is spilled into it by oilfield operations. That lake is an awful mess, even without man’s intervention.

Pretty slick how the buck is being passed, huh? I’ve flown in typhoons and tasted its salty air at about 3000 feet. The turbulence was enough to sicken our super cargo, an aerologist. My guess is that the churning air mass would dissipate the oil over a wide enough area as to lessen damage.

“We’ll never get the truth about the ongoing effects of this catastrophe, because apparently BP now OWNS the Gulf and the Coast Guard!”

————————————————

I saw the story on CBS also and found it to be utterly ridiculous. How in the heck is the government allowing BP to control the water and them?! Everyone’s playing around with this matter like it’s no big deal, while the oil is just floating around and doing damage. The government needs to grow a pair and act quickly!

Why would anyone want to modify hurricanes? Do we understand why they occur in the first place and what effect they have on the climate? Haven’t we learned yet that trying to modify what we don’t understand usually leads to catastrophe eventually?

How about we not forget the main tragedy of 11 people losing their lives in the explosion instead of worrying what effect this will have on our summer vacation home?

I really like elowe’s comments above about the pollution from the Mississippi and the various other rivers that dump into the Gulf everyday. What people seem to forget is that this oil is a NATURAL resource. It is coming directly from the ground. It’s not like gasoline is being pumped into the water. What do you think this oil is made out of? Fish guts and organic compounds from millions of years ago. I am so sick of people taking what the media says as fact instead of having the sense to research the issue further. This is not the equivalent of the Exxon Valdez. It is a terrible tragedy, and we will all survive this. The best engineers in the world are working 20 hour days brainstorming how to fix the problem, and developing procedures to prevent future disasters.

Yea, I read that this morning. If Costner actually stops this leak, I would make the ultimate sacrifice. I will buy and watch The Postman. Its going to be physically painful but its the least I can do.

The basic goal would not be so much to steer them as to try and take steps to weaken them prior to landfall.

Do we understand why they occur in the first place and what effect they have on the climate?

They definitely play a key role in climate, most notably transferring heat from the tropics to mid-latitudes. They also are important rain sources for Texas in the dry summer months.

Haven’t we learned yet that trying to modify what we don’t understand usually leads to catastrophe eventually?

Apparently not. We don’t even understand hurricanes well enough at this point to be able to determine whether a modification scheme actually worked.

The key issue here is that people don’t recognize the size and energy of storms and that modification is just something we can’t do right now. Chris Landsea at the National Hurricane Center has a wonderful file he keeps of all the crazy modification schemes he’s seen over the years.

Mother Nature is not to be messed with. We can better understand her…but to alter her?? What the hell…

We can’t prevent earthquakes…see China and Haiti.

We can’t prevent volcano eruption see Iceland.

So why in the world would we think we could prevent hurricances by having some sort of substance floating on top of the ocean??

As far as the oil spill goes….this is what I want to know….wouldn’t after the Exxon Valdez spill over 20 years ago that the oil companies with all their profits and revenue during that time develop a safe guard for when this happens??

A lot of people want the government to stay out of this and stay out of that..let us drill and stay out of our way. But when they mess up and accidents occur then they need and want the governments help. When these accidents happen you expose yourself and your industry to your substandard safety and weak prevention protocols. Now you will have every environmentalist and government agency crawling up your industries a– ..and why because of greed. Now when the government starts regulating and taxing the oil industry again..don’t whine and cry because you (BP) couldn’t handle your business. Notice that Exxon. Valero. Shell. Conoco. Chevron. Are real real quiet….wonder why that is. Anyone ?? Yeah..they know whats getting ready to happen. A microscope up their behinds to see what their safety procedures are and what amount of money they have spent in case of a spill.

And don’t be surprised if Oil companies have to set aside a percentage of their quarterly profits to fund accidents of this nature. No reason why this can’t happen.

BP’s lawyers are going to be busy for a longtime. The Litigation on this is going to be enormous. Hell Pappas Restaraunts have filed suit so you can bet every establishment from here to Florida is going to want in on this. And last time I checked as I type this….the spill is still not plugged and its been a month now….wow…

I am curious if Eric could provide some context to the amount of pollution that the BP Macondo Spill is producing relative to all the other Gulf of Mexico pollution from man made sources.

Would you settle for natural pollution? According to EarthSat, about 500,000 barrels of oil are naturally released into the Gulf of Mexico each year via oil seeps. That puts the level of natural pollution at between five days and three months of spillage, depending on whose estimate you believe.

Of course, the natural seeps are far more distributed than the BP blowout. As a result, much of the oil is consumed in seep communities.

Can we get some perspective here and stop allowing the media and lying government to frighten you into anxious and irresponsible reactions.

After 30 days of leaking, have you seen the size of the slick? Well you can if you just google “nasa sattellite view oil slick”. Its large, yes, but it is NOT catestrophic first of all. And why must you follow blindly into the line of demonizing those in the Oil & Gas Industry or executives anywhere.

I can hear your ba-aaaing like a lost sheep from here.

Second, this entire stupid article is based on 1 person’s opinion with no data whatsoever, as well as the “film on the surface to curb hurricanes” theory would require a film on the entire Gulf surface. After 30 days of leaking you have a film slick that covers MAYBE .5% if you exclude the tail of the sheen. That’s 1/2 of 1 percent and its NOT going to cover the Gulf EVER.

THIRD, why would you not think that the industry is responding with everything they have to first STOP this flow and second make darn sure they understand what caused it and how to prevent it from ever happening again.

If you don’t believe the Industry is doing that you don’t understand the very basics of business, much less what makes up the Industry, but rather you’ve allowed yourself to fall prey to the lies of the media and the government.

Its not popular to suggest this, but did you know that the very brightest and most educated engineers and geophysists in the world spend their days designing complex methods and structures to obtain and market the most highly demanded product that this world has ever known.

And its not JUST energy, like you’ve also been led to believe, so that you could focus on what to replace as an energy source. Go google “list of products made from petroleum”. Then think through how many on that list YOU want to live without, beside driving your car around.

So don’t be led astray by media hounds who love a good catastophe, they need them to float their boat of ratings. And don’t get led astray by your corrupt government that deals and lies and displaces blame and needs the catastrophe to grow their power base.

We should NOT be in 5,000 plus feet of water trying to get to oil that literally takes rocket scientists and billions of dollars and huge risks, when we have oil in 200 and less feet of water surrounding our entire nation, EXCEPT for Louisiana and Texas where they were smart enough to allow it. But YOUR government forced the INdustry out there, and REFUSES to allow them the easy access, while holding you hostage to foreign energy.

The loss here are the 11 souls.

If you can ever get beyond that perspective, the next level comes from allowing the media to oversensationalize and the government to grow power, by striking fear into your hearts with lies and exagerations.

If your precious little Miami beach gets washed ashore with Oil, trust me, mankind and Mother Nature WILL take care of the problem.

Go research Gulf of Mexico Oil Spills within the last 30 years. You’ll find many that were worse and there are no remnants of remaing today.

The Loop Current in the Gulf is another question. It periodically forms closed eddies that drift westward. One of these eddies could bring oil westward. So there’s nothing out there that’s preventing oil from making it to Texas eventually, but the currents haven’t been taking it in that direction so far.

If only a portion of the slick or oil gets sucked into the stream, does the rest of it follow? That is, is there a cohesiveness/attraction that once one starts to go that pulls all the oil connected (contiguous)?

If only a portion of the slick or oil gets sucked into the stream, does the rest of it follow? That is, is there a cohesiveness/attraction that once one starts to go that pulls all the oil connected (contiguous)?

You can answer that question for yourself with a bathtub and some olive oil.

What people seem to forget is that this oil is a NATURAL resource. It is coming directly from the ground. It’s not like gasoline is being pumped into the water. What do you think this oil is made out of? Fish guts and organic compounds from millions of years ago. I am so sick of people taking what the media says as fact instead of having the sense to research the issue further. This is not the equivalent of the Exxon Valdez.This much oil all at once is far from natural. I wish this was the equivalent of the Valdez. BP is extracting 5,000 barrels of oil a day and this live video shows that the spill is still going strong. Realistic estimates place it at 50,000 – 100,000 barrels a day. After a month, that means the slick could already be as large as a dozen Exxon Valdez spills.

” We should NOT be in 5,000 plus feet of water trying to get to oil that literally takes rocket scientists and billions of dollars and huge risks, when we have oil in 200 and less feet of water surrounding our entire nation, EXCEPT for Louisiana and Texas where they were smart enough to allow it. But YOUR government forced the INdustry out there, and REFUSES to allow them the easy access, while holding you hostage to foreign energy.”

This is some thing I did not realize

— you are saying that the offshore bans in shallower waters around, for example, Florida

— you are saying that the offshore bans in shallower waters around, for example, Florida

— are pushing the drilling into deeper waters.

Heck, yes. Do you have any idea how expensive it is to drill in deep water? A typical dry hole is $150 million dollars. A successful deep-water drill can run $300 million (the extra is to complete the well). And only about 20% of the wells that are drilled are commercially viable.

Drilling in shallow water is much less expensive, because everything is closer to shore and the environment is much simpler (less chance of overpressure, better seismic data, actualy ground to put the rig on). A typical shallow water well can be less than $10 million, with a completed well for under $20 million. And the odds of success go up slightly, as well – about 30% of the shallow water wells are successful (rising to 90% in an established trend).

The media has given the public the impression that we are drilling in deeper waters

— due to depletion of the oil supply available in shallower waters.

You are in this business, is that a factor at all?

For once, the media has it mostly right. All of the easy, obvious, big targets in the shallow waters of the Gulf of Mexico are gone – at least, in those parts where we are allowed to drill. So we look for unconventional shallow water targets (e.g., shale gas plays), or small but economical shallow water targets (e.g., by-passed reserves), or “elephants” in the deep water (i.e., formations with more than 100 million barrels of oil or the equivalent in natural gas).

Anything smaller than an elephant in deep water just isn’t economically viable (remember – the well has to pay its costs and the costs fo all of those failed drills). And it is very expensive to hunt elephants; for example, it costs upwards of $500,000 per day to lease the drill rig. Add in personnel costs, materials, and overhead, and you are in the neighborhood of $1 – $2 million per day for drilling.

When Obama announced that the eastern Gulf of Mexico would be opened to drilling, there was much rejoicing in the industry. (To get an idea of where we can now drill, draw a line striaght down from New Orleans. Everything to the east is in the “no drill” zone.) Some estimate that the eastern GOM has at least as much oil and natural gas as the western side did. And more of it is in shallow waters, due to the way that the GOM is configured.

Thanks to BP, his plan has been put off for at least another twenty years. Which is bad for the oil industry (higher margins mean lower profits), and bad for the USA (deeper water means higher risks; fewer places to drill means more reliance on foreign oil).

Shortly after the Japanese surrendered, we flew into a typhoon with an aerologist aboard. VPB-119 lost a plane in that typhoon. Perhaps we flew together:

“Pretty slick how the buck is being passed, huh? I’ve flown in typhoons and tasted its salty air at about 3000 feet. The turbulence was enough to sicken our super cargo, an aerologist. My guess is that the churning air mass would dissipate the oil over a wide enough area as to lessen damage.