Long Range Tracking: Toy Story 4 & Child’s Play

This week’s report takes a first look at an anticipated Pixar sequel and another remake of a classic ’80s/’90s horror franchise, two “toy” movies cut from a very different cloth…er, plastic.

Toy Story 4Opening Weekend Range: $105 – 130 million

PROS:

The Toy Story franchise remains beloved by families and Pixar fans after 24 years in action, and the nine-year gap between sequels could serve to aid anticipation among parents who will introduce the series to new generation of kids that’s come about since the previous film.

Reactions to early teaser trailers for this sequel have been largely positive, with new characters like Forky and the stuffed animals voiced by Jordan Peele and Keegan-Michael Key standing out so far. The return of key cast members like Tom Hanks’s Woody and Tim Allen’s Buzz Lightyear remain staples, of course.

This will represent the last tentpole, computer-animated comedy of the summer, which should bode well if reviews and word of mouth are strong as they have been for each of the first three films.

CONS:

Following Toy Story 3 could be a bigger challenge than ever for the franchise after that film earned Oscar recognition and was heralded by many as the perfect conclusion to the series. This won’t deter younger fans, but, the demand among adults who grew up with the original films doesn’t appear to be as measurably strong (yet) as it was for Incredibles 2 or Finding Dory at this stage in the pre-release window.

Opening two weeks after The Secret Life of Pets 2 creates an interesting competitive crossover given the very similar target audiences and animated comedy genres. That film’s reception could be key toward Toy Story 4‘s ultimate potential, and may lead to some back-loading later in the run and/or a deflated opening weekend relative to recent blockbuster Pixar sequels like Incredibles 2 and Finding Dory. The lack of a Father’s Day weekend boost will be another advantage missing from this film’s opening weekend arsenal that its predecessor benefited from.

Child’s Play (2019)Opening Weekend Range: $12 – 22 million

PROS:

The original films were low-budget successes in the world of B-rate horror back in the late 1980s and early 1990s, which might create some nostalgia for a return to the series among adult horror fans.

The volume of horror titles opening this summer may serve to reduce this film’s chances of a breakout, particularly with Annabelle Comes Home opening one week later and bringing with it a built-in fan base from the Conjuring universe.

Nostalgic horror remakes have had a modest time at the box office in recent years. Although the recent Pet Sematary opened well, it had the aid of the resurgent Stephen King brand behind it and, notably, less direct competition afterward. Early comps for this title include 2015’s Poltergeist and 2013’s Carrie.

8-Week Tracking

Release Date

Title

3-Day Wide Release Tracking

% Chg from Last Week

Domestic Total Forecast

% Chg from Last Week

Estimated Location Count

Distributor

5/3/2019

The Intruder

$13,900,000

-13%

$38,500,000

-13%

2,200

Sony / Columbia

5/3/2019

Long Shot

$12,000,000

-4%

$50,000,000

3,100

Lionsgate / Summit

5/3/2019

Uglydolls

$13,500,000

$48,000,000

3,600

STX

5/10/2019

The Hustle

$14,500,000

$41,000,000

–

Mirror Films / MGM

5/10/2019

Pokemon: Detective Pikachu

$82,000,000

-9%

$250,000,000

–

Warner Bros.

5/10/2019

Poms

$9,500,000

-14%

$40,000,000

–

STX

5/17/2019

A Dog’s Journey

$11,500,000

5%

$41,300,000

5%

–

Sony / Columbia

5/17/2019

John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum

$37,000,000

6%

$106,000,000

6%

–

Lionsgate / Summit

5/17/2019

The Sun Is Also a Star

$12,500,000

4%

$36,000,000

–

Warner Bros.

5/24/2019

Aladdin

$80,000,000

$220,000,000

–

Disney

5/24/2019

Booksmart

n/a

n/a

–

Annapurna Pictures

5/24/2019

BrightBurn

n/a

n/a

–

Sony / Columbia

5/31/2019

Godzilla: King of the Monsters

$54,000,000

$144,000,000

–

Warner Bros.

5/31/2019

Ma

$24,000,000

$63,000,000

–

Universal

5/31/2019

Rocketman

$37,000,000

$165,000,000

–

Paramount

6/7/2019

Dark Phoenix

$47,000,000

$113,000,000

–

Fox

6/7/2019

Late Night

n/a

n/a

Amazon Studios

6/7/2019

The Secret Life of Pets 2

$80,000,000

$263,000,000

–

Universal

6/14/2019

Men In Black International

$39,000,000

$107,000,000

–

Sony / Columbia

6/14/2019

Shaft (2019)

$31,000,000

$100,000,000

–

Warner Bros.

6/21/2019

Anna

n/a

n/a

Lionsgate / Summit

6/21/2019

Child’s Play (2019)

$17,000,000

NEW

$42,500,000

NEW

–

Orion Pictures

6/21/2019

Toy Story 4

$113,000,000

NEW

$390,000,000

NEW

–

Disney / Pixar

Forecasts subject to change as location counts are finalized before Friday.

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