Wednesday, October 29, 2014

A stronger dollar is always deleterious to stronger gold, but perhaps what's most important of all is you're three or four euros under a new high in gold, in euro terms. I think gold is nothing more than a currency. I don't look at it as an inflation hedge anymore.VIA http://www.cnbc.com/id/102106575

Monday, October 27, 2014

As I tell people I have only been at this for 45 years so I am relatively new to it. But this is the sort of volatility that I have never seen… I’m talking about commodities and equities across the board. Even in the bond market. In aggregate I am seeing movements I have never seen before… These are unprecedented … It is very difficult for someone like me who grew up in a different era to make sense of what is going on.

Friday, October 24, 2014

This is the type of volatility that is absolutely beyond my ken. Quite honestly, I have not seen anything like this in the last 2 weeks. In retrospect, one should have thrown all caution to the wind, covered any short positions, and spent cash and bought stocks. When I went to neutral 2 weeks ago, the stock market is still below than when I went neutral. Clearly, in retrospect, I should have bought it. I'm not that smart, nor should I ever be. Clearly, I missed the V-bottom. And I'm going to be okay with that fact. Even if it rallies a little bit, its still below where I went to neutral and I'm going to stay that way.

Wednesday, October 15, 2014

The (Euro), we fear, is doomed to failure at this point. The political anger that has been evidenced in the battles over (European Commission president-elect) Mr. (Jean-Claude) Juncker's proposed Cabinet shall erupt in full flower in the days ahead. The FIG countries cannot abide further austerity; austerity in the face of 20+percent unemployment is economic nonsense. On the other hand the GAFs, with sub 6 percent unemployment, really don't need an expansionary monetary policy, can abide fiscal conservatism and will fight for both. As the world awaited a hoped-for clear and precise statement that the ECB was prepared to actually take action on monetary policy and become expansionary, it instead heard a lecture explaining that he and the others on the ECB's monetary policy committee had done all that they could do to try to strengthen the economy there and that the real battle had to be waged by the political authorities to reform the sclerotic nature of the economies there. VIA http://www.cnbc.com/id/102077515

Monday, October 13, 2014

The environment has turned toxic to be quite honest and has been made worse by the Ebola circumstance. I think that will turn the psychology of the average investor. Rather than becoming expensive and looking for good news, people are going to be fearful of bad news. And it bothers me greatly that the broader stock market indices, the Russell for example has failed to make new highs, has broken major trend lines. And I think this is more than a 3 or 5 percent correction. I think this could be a relatively 10 or 15 percent correction from the highs. Now I think the proper place to be is in cash, on the sidelines.VIA CNBC

Wednesday, October 8, 2014

I think the global economy is still going to be strong. It's time to start looking at owning those very simple ideas. Very simple ideas—I want to buy steel. I want to buy rails. I want to buy aluminum. So, Alcoa and big steel are my ideas again for the first time in a while. It's an old story of mine.via CNBC

Tuesday, October 7, 2014

He [Neves] has no chance whatsoever to win the election. President Rousseff is going to win. She is a Marxist, a former guerilla. I'm sorry, ex-Marxists and former guerillas do not change their stripes.I'm fearful of this young lady [Rousseff] being president again. She is going to, I think, move even farther left.

Monday, October 6, 2014

German firms, if we've learned anything about them over the years, operate quietly for the very most part. They do not like controversy. They prefer stability; they live and breathe the chain-of-command and they abjure those who stand up and cause confusion and/or consternation within that chain.

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