Exports

Honey has been popular for thousands of years. Celebrated as one of the few foods that never goes bad, the uses of honey have ranged from being a base for ancient Egyptian ointments to a family favourite to be spread on toast for breakfast.

It has been a long damp winter but that has not dented our tourism numbers with visitors flocking to (almost) 100% pure New Zealand. With the August visitor numbers released, rounding out the winter months, we can finally see if the rain, wind and countless landslips have made foreign travellers reconsider their plans.

Revenue from New Zealand’s goods exports are picking up the pace after a prolonged flat period. Over 24 months from early 2015, merchandise export revenue struggled to budge from around an annual total of $46bn.

In the last year or two, some people connected to the tourism industry have talked about how high the activity levels seen in the summer months have extended into the spring and autumn months. They talk about the shoulder season extending.

Commercial fishing plays a significant part in the New Zealand economy. This report, prepared for the New Zealand commercial fishing industry, concludes that on average, in the five years to 2015, commercial fishing
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The year to March was disappointing in terms of revenue from New Zealand’s merchandise exports. The total of $46.9bn just pipped the $46.5bn of the previous year, but was well down on the peak $49.3bn for the 12 months to September 2014. However, within this static total are components that are painting a dynamic picture of NZ’s export scene.

In the year to December 2016 New Zealand exported $48.5 billion in merchandise exports, this was down from $49 billion exports in 2015, and the $50.1 billion exports in 2014. As shown in the figure below New Zealand exports have grown by $19.2 billion since 2000, when $29.3 billion worth of goods was exported.

In early August New Zealand received a warning notice from China as a result of inspections in China detecting the fungus Neofabraea actinidiae in a shipment of Kiwifruit. This notice has brought about a halt to shipments of Kiwifruit to China, until Zespri can set up more stringent pre-shipment measures.

Almost every day, our newspapers and news websites carry stories about tourists causing traffic problems and road accidents, or about freedom campers despoiling popular locations by using them as lavatories. One of the underlying messages is that the country is being overrun by visitors.

The Fonterra Annual Review 2013, which was published alongside its Annual Report on 24 September 2014, confirmed that 2013/14 had been a bumper season, with a final pay-out of $8.40/kg of milk solids. However, at the same time it forecast a pay-out of just $5.30/kg of milk solids for the 2014/15 season.

The GDT Price Index has fallen by 8.4 percent during the last GlobalDairy Trade auction on the 5th of August. More worrying the figure below reveals that the weighted average wining price has plummeted to 3,025 USD/MT (US dollars per mega tonne) from its record high of 5,042 USD/MT set in February this year.

In our previous commentary on manufacturing we noted that the first half of 2013 was looking positive for manufacturing. Now the numbers are in for the third quarter of 2013, and we can see the impact that the warm, dry conditions at the beginning of the year has had on manufacturing sales volumes, and in turn the amount of New Zealand meat and dairy products on the international market.

In our previous commentary on manufacturing we noted that the first quarter of 2013 was looking positive for manufacturing. Now the numbers are in for the second quarter of 2013, and we can see the impact that the warm, dry conditions at the beginning of the year has had on manufacturing sales volumes, and in turn the amount of New Zealand meat and dairy products on the international market.

Members of the New Zealand Manufacturers and Exporters Association remain concerned about markets and production capacity, especially pressures on company margins due to the currency. These sentiments have seen net confidence decrease among the businesses surveyed in the latest New Zealand Manufacturers and Exporters Association Survey of Business Conditions.

Monthly trade registered a $304 million deficit in January 2013, following a surplus in December 2012. The decrease in monthly exports of dairy and crude oil, and the renewed strength in imports caused this return to the red zone.

The annual average percentage change in manufacturing sales volumes recorded small but positive growth in the September 2012 quarter. This was due to an increase in the sales volumes of dairy and meat products, chemicals and non-metallic mineral products.

The October trade deficit declined from $775 million in the previous month to $718 million in October 2012, but remains well above the $226 million deficit in the same month in the previous year. The annual deficit has ballooned to $1.37 billion, from a deficit of $874 million a year ago.

September trade figures is a mixed bag of good and bad news. The good news is, the monthly trade defict narrowed, with dairy exports holding up. The bad news is, annual receipts from exports and trade volume are getting lighter.

July was positive month for New Zealand trade, with a slight trade surplus of $15 million. Yet, our trade deficit increased from $756 million in June to $825 million this month based on annualised values.

A surge in dairy and forestry exports contributed to a strong monthly surplus of $331m. June figures showed a 25% increase in forestry export volumes and an 8% increase in dairy exports. However, monthly figures are prone to erratic movements – depending on holidays, shipping timetables and the like.

New Zealand's trade deficit is ballooning further, as exports continue to struggle and imports continue to increase. The annual deficit for the year to May was $801 million, up $248 million from the deficit for the year to April.

A slide in commodity prices and softer demand from China and Australia has led to lower export receipts in April 2012. The latest official trade figures signal weakness in the external sector, with the trade surplus for the month falling to $355 million.

March 2012 trade figures indicate a fall in the value of exports compared to year-earlier levels. Exports were valued at $4.2bn in March, down from $4.6bn in March 2011. Flagship exports such as dairy, crude oil and fruits all recorded lower export revenue this March.

While the increasing number of total overseas visitors is good news for our tourism sector, the largest gains in visitor numbers are coming from Australia (up 56,300) and China (up 30,700). While Australia represents our largest visitor market with 45 percent of all visitors in the year to March 2012, Australians tend to spend small amounts when travelling in New Zealand.

Last week, AFFCO locked out 762 workers indefinitely after talks between AFFCO and the NZ Meat Workers Union broke down. The 762 workers are said to represent 70 percent of the meat workers across Moerewa, Horotiu, Imlay, Wairoa and Manawatu plants.

The New Zealand Manufacturers and Exporters Association Survey of Business Conditions indicate that domestic manufacturing sales decreased by less than half a percent in December 2011 compared to December 2010, while manufacturing export sales increased by 15.4%.