Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants: MNF Betting Preview and Prediction

Are the Dallas Cowboys a flaky football team, or do we simply pay too much attention to them?

All sports outcomes seem less consistent when you’re gambling on them. You might assume something like, “ah, Texas always beats Rice by 50 points.” But look back at the long-term series results, and it isn’t always that simple. In fact it’s the time you gamble on Texas to cover (-49) vs Rice (or whoever) that the Longhorns seem to suddenly have issues.

Sure, the Silver Star has recently been on a losing streak, even falling to the woeful New York Jets at MetLife Stadium. But the ‘Boys fought back with a 27-point victory and are standing tops in the NFC East, while there’s evidence that the New York Giants could be even more vulnerable than the Jets at home.

That’s good news for fans in Big D headed into Monday Night Football in Week 9.

Cowboys at Giants: Handicapping Notes for Week 9 MNF

The Cowboys are favored by a full TD on the road thanks to the Giants having lost 4 straight games since a 28-3 win over the Redskins back in Week 4.

Bettors recall the scrum earlier in the season that the Cowboys won 35-17. Dak Prescott threw for 405 yards and 4 TD’s, and Eli Manning was floundering under center for the G-Men.

That much has changed of course. It is now the Daniel Jones Show in New York, but despite some promise (mostly the “promises” of pundits who still rank old-fashioned pocket QBs above all else) the plan has obviously has not translated into wins as of yet. Jones is completing 62% of his passes, the same number as Manning, but his 84.4 QB rating is a bit better than the 78.7 QBR Eli posted.

Dallas still has the best offense in the NFL from a yardage standpoint. Jason Garrett’s unit is averaging 449.3 YPG, throwing for 303 yards per game and rushing for 146.

Prescott has the best QBR in the league, completing almost 71% of his passes for 2,123 yards and 12 TD’s, and ranks 2nd behind only Russell Wilson at the QB position according to Pro Football Focus.

Jerry Jones and his front office spent much of the week trying to trade for safety Jamal Adams with another DB:

There was a lot of fallout between Adams and the Jets considering that the latter contemplated trading the former. Normally this wouldn’t be of much interest or consequence to the Cowboys but considering America’s Team was in the running for the safety, details matter here. We found out after the trade deadline passed that the Cowboys weren’t willing to meet New York’s asking price that was reportedly a first- and two second-round picks. Dallas apparently dangled a “backup” level player in their proposal, but despite speculation we didn’t know for certain who that was.

NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport reported on Sunday morning that in initial talks the Jets asked the Cowboys about guard Zack Martin. When Dallas said no, likely with the force of all that exists, New York apparently then asked about Tyron Smith. Needless to say the Cowboys said no again. The Cowboys did offer a player though, again one of backup variety. Dallas has finally figured out that playing Jourdan Lewis is a good thing which does indeed put cornerback Anthony Brown in a backup type of role… that’s who Dallas offered. Considering this season is a contract year for Brown, perhaps offering him up is an early indicator that the Cowboys don’t have re-signing him at the top of their priorities. It makes perfect sense for the Cowboys to offer up Anthony Brown, although if he does leave in free agency and signs elsewhere the team could set themselves up for a potential compensatory pick. Needless to say acquiring Jamal Adams would be the preferred option so of course Brown was included there in what was reportedly the best offer that Dallas made (along with a first-round pick).

Bear in mind that Dallas plans to take a kick at the can this year – it’s not a rebuilding season by any stretch – and so I doubt Jason Garrett would want to make a CB-for-S swap purely for economic reasons. If the question is “will the Cowboy defense be vulnerable to deep ball late in injury-filled games in November?” then the answer is yes, but the Giants can’t take advantage with pass-blocking that has been mind-numbingly poor during a 2-6 start.

MNF Prediction and Best Market

Special teams could give the Cowboys an edge as well. PK Brett Maher has booted 6 FG’s over the last 2 games, including a 62-yarder against the Jets and a 63-yarder against Philly.

However, I’m not making this MNF recommendation based on anything the Dallas Cowboys are doing specifically…but rather with the memory of 2 weeks ago still fresh in mind.

Arizona, a mediocre defensive team in 2019, destroyed New York’s OL at MetLife Stadium…and there’s no reason Dallas can’t do the same, bringing into play a smart pick on the Under (since the Giants may not score very often) in addition to Cowboys ATS.