Fan Cards: Gennady Golovkin vs Sergiy Derevyanchenko

Comments

I think this is a 50/50 fight, Golovkin is a lot better than Derevyanchenko, and if this was a prime Golovkin, it wouldn't be a hard fight to predict, but Golovkin has been slowly declining for over 2 years, he's 37, and I think Derevyanchenko is still in his prime, 33 is not old for a middleweight, he has only had 14 fights, he is relatively fresh, but he is more experienced now than he was against Jacobs, has been 12 rounds twice, been past 11 rounds 3 times.

This is not an just an official world title fight, Golovkin and Derevyanchenko are both easily top 10 in a competitive division, they are very well matched, are both world level, no doubt. I think this will is a tougher fight for Golovkin than any fight he had before he fought Jacobs, Rolls was a tune up, he got the early knock out, it was a good confidence boost, first fight with a new trainer, but this is no tune up, no showcase, this is a real fight.

Golovkin beat Jacobs, Derevyanchenko lost to Jacobs, and Jacobs was probably slightly better against Golovkin, but both were close fights, and I think Derevyanchenko can match, maybe even improve on his performance from the Jacobs fight, whereas Golovkin has dipped a fair bit since beating Jacobs, and can't repeat his performance from that fight, still, Golovkin has proven to be a devastating puncher, Derevyanchenko doesn't have power like that, Golovkin has a lot more experience, amateur and professional, even if Derevyanchenko isn't inexperienced, Golovkin is a veteran, and I don't think Derevyanchenko could come close to beating a 2016 Golovkin.

Derevyanchenko was down against Jacobs, wasn't hurt bad, but he was stunned, was down legitimately, Golovkin hits harder than Jacobs, and he will have the same sheer punch power as before, so Golovkin is well capable of hurting Derevyanchenko. Derevyanchenko can punch as well, but Golovkin has never been down as an amateur or professional, he has a granite chin, his resistance must be at least slightly weaker than it used to be, at 37, having taken some damage, but he doesn't have a lot of miles, doesn't have any clear losses, his chin held up fine in the second Alvarez fight, so unless Golovkin has got old overnight, I think he will still hold up against Derevyanchenko's power, and if if is a dogfight, both landing clean with their best shots, that still favours Golovkin.

Speed has never been a good attribute for Golovkin, but in each fight, he seems to have less and less hand and foot speed, and unfortunately for any aging fighter, foot speed, which is usually more important than hand speed, goes first. I think Derevyanchenko will get the better of the mid-late rounds by beating Golovkin to the punch, moving, out working him, and Golovkin will struggle to get into range.

Golovkin is still a strong, dangerous fighter, can still break a fighter down by going to the body and then bringing the attack to the head, but he can't throw as many punches over the course of 12 rounds as he could a few years ago, his recovery is slower, he will tire more easily, so he isn't as hard to beat as he used to be, but it is a question of whether he still has enough to beat Derevyanchenko, and I think he does.

I think this will be somewhat a fight with 2 halves, not both fighters dominating a half each, but both will get the better of one half. I think Golovkin will hurt Derevyanchenko early, knock him down, and have a great start, but I don't think he'll be able to get him out, because he won't be able to be relentless, and Derevyanchenko will be able to survive against an old and slow Golovkin. I think Golovkin will tire, will struggle to find a second wind, and when he is tired, is when Derevyanchenko can work away, steal the rounds, because if Derevyanchenko tires himself, he will get a second wind more easily.

I think Golovkin will find a second wind, late in the fight, it will just take him a while, and he'll lose rounds because he'll get beaten to the punch, will be easy to hit, but when he has recovered in the late rounds, if he can get a second wind, he will be dangerous again, will be able to apply more pressure, throw more shots, and Derevyanchenko won't be able to run away with the late rounds.

I think Golovkin wins an MD, he is not shot, is still top 3 at 160, can't beat Canelo or Andrade now, and will get overtaken by other good fighters soon, but I think he will win the belt, set up bigger opportunities.

This is probably going to be a very fun fight to watch. It's going to be Slugger vs Swarmer, and in those matchups, the styles clash favors the Slugger. GGG by late stoppage, but unlike other fights, I don't think this one is going to be easy at all.