NFL Futures Lines and Computer Simulation Based Forecast

By
Scout Staff

Aug 16, 2019
• 2 min read
UpdateAug 16, 2019, 2:11pm

The difference at the top of the conference is small at 1.2%. The Kansas City Chiefs at 27.9% trails the New England Patriots at 29.1%. The difference between these teams is widening as the Chiefs chances are down from 33 percent. Expect the playoff race to be tight. In simulations, the Browns average the #5 most wins and the Steelers average the #7 most so the difference (0.34 wins) between making and missing the playoffs is expected to be very small. There are 7 teams with at least a four percent chance of winning the conference.

There is a 5.1% difference between conference leaders. The Los Angeles Rams at 22.3% trails the New Orleans Saints at 27.4%. The gap seems to be widening. The Rams chances are down from 32.9 percent. Expect the playoff race to be tight. In simulations, the Bears average the #5 most wins and the Cowboys average the #7 most so the difference (0.48 wins) between making and missing the playoffs is expected to be very small. There is parity in the conference. There are 8 teams winning the conference in at least four percent of our playoff simulations.

This is a normal year with 12 teams having at least a two percent chance of winning it all. This is the number you would expect in a typical season. At the top, the Chiefs have a 1.2 percentage point lead over the Patriots. Teams are bunched together at the bottom of the contenders list with just 0.5 percentage points separating the #10 ranked team from the #12 ranked team.