Poll: Scott Walker recall too close to call

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and his potential opponents in the upcoming recall election are locked in a dead heat, according to a new poll out Tuesday.

Walker looks set to have very close races with whoever ends up as his Democratic opponent, although voters are split — 49 percent to 49 percent — on whether they support recalling the governor before his term is up, according to a Public Policy Polling survey. His approval rating is 47 percent, but over half, or 52 percent, say they disapprove of the job the Republican governor has done.

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According to the poll’s matchups, Walker’s top declared Democratic challenger Kathleen Falk leads the governor with a 48 percent to 47 percent advantage and Milwaukee mayor Tom Barrett, who has not entered the race but ran against Walker in 2010, would receive 49 percent of the vote to Walker’s 46 percent.

“These are the most encouraging numbers we’ve found for Democrats in Wisconsin related to the Walker recall since last August,” PPP president Dean Debnam said in a statement. “Walker’s numbers had been seeing some recovery, but now it appears they’ve turned back in the wrong direction. The big question now is whether Democrats can find a candidate to take advantage of Walker’s vulnerability.”

In PPP’s last poll of the race in October, Walker led Barrett and Falk by two and eight points, respectively.

While former Sen. Russ Feingold has said he would not run in the race, the pollsters found that he would beat Walker 52 percent to 45 percent.

The poll tested five other Democrats — Walker beats former Rep. David Obey 47 percent to 45 percent and state Sen. Jon Erpenbach 47 percent to 44 percent. Secretary of State Doug La Follette, who has filed paperwork to challenge Walker, trails by one point, with Walker receiving 46 percent and La Follette getting 45 percent. Walker also leads state Sen. Kathleen Vinehout 46 percent to 44 percent.

Meanwhile, Rep. Ron Kind has a one point lead over Walker with 46 percent to 45 percent.

If Barrett decides to enter the race, the poll found he would be the front runner in the Democratic primary with 45 percent support. Falk, a former Dane County executive, has 18 percent, followed by La Follette with 14 percent. But if Barrett doesn’t run, Falk would lead the Democratic field with 41 percent to La Follette’s 23 percent.

Walker’s campaign said they felt confident voters would back Walker in the recall.

“In 2010 an overwhelming majority of voters elected Governor Walker to take bold action in addressing the state’s long-running budget crisis. He ran on a promise of closing the $3.6 billion budget deficit without raising taxes, laying off public employees, or making cuts to essential services. Governor Walker has kept those promises, and we are confident that because the positive effects of his reforms continue to create more jobs and keep more money in the pockets of taxpayers, voters will reaffirm the decision they made a year ago,” the campaign said in a statement.

Wisconsin recall group We Are Wisconsin executive director Kristen Crowell said in a statement the poll shows voters no longer have faith in the governor.

“While Scott Walker lies about imaginary out-of-state spending against him, the people of Wisconsin have taken democracy into their own hands, collecting over one million signatures to hold him accountable at the ballot box,” she said. “After spending millions in dirty corporate cash trying to cover up his extreme agenda and his divisive and corrupt administration, Scott Walker and his out-of-state billionaire backers have absolutely nothing to show for it — in fact, the needle has moved in the opposite direction. After countless lies and the most divisive record in Wisconsin history, Scott Walker is proving that no amount of money can buy back voters’ trust.”

Walker's right, and people thank him for doing exactly what he's done. And I don't believe polls published by Democrats because Democrats are generally oversampled by choosing a liberal location or some other shenanigan and then they all feign surprise when the result isn't what they projected. There is NOTHING wrong with asking union members to contribute towards their own benefits like the rest of us do, and there is even less wrong in making union participation optional instead of mandatory! The only people who think it's wrong are the ones who want the power and the dues, to donate to Democrats, who give them everything they want even though Democrats can't afford to do so any better than anyone else.

If this is news, consider your sources. You've got to read both sides because both sides leave stuff out.

If the Democrats don't take out this Koch Sucker then this should do it:

Wisconsin Job Growth

There were 2,739,500 jobs in Wisconsin in December 2011 according to the CES survey of employers. The CPS survey of households showed 2,838,411 employed persons for the month. Wisconsin lost 1,700 jobs in December 2011 according to the CES survey while the broader CPS employment measure rose by 6,871 (Comparing CES and CPS employment numbers.). Also available is Wisconsin job growth compared to other states.

PPP's been pretty accurate so far, so this race does appear to have tightened. Falk (aka Governor Kos or Governor Soros) would be a disaster for Wisconsin. Barrett would be reasonable, primarily because he's actually used the new law to reduce spending in his own city, but because of that, the unions likely won't back him in the primary.

What was the percentage of democrats to republicans? Was the poll taken during the daytime when all the welfare leeches are home to answer the phone? What percentage was taken in the Peoples Republic of Madison and what percentage was taken in mainstream Wisconsin areas? We are to believe that an improving economy, a balance budget, much less costly health insurance for state employees, an end to mandatory withholding of government union dues, and no teacher layoffs means Scott Walker is in trouble? Maybe PPP should stop polling Rachel Madcow and Shortbusser Ed Schultz audiences and do a genuine story. Isn't PPP affiliated with the Democrat party anyway???

When was the poll taken - during the daytime hours when all the welfare leeches are home? How many of the respondents are from the Peoples Republic of Madison? How many democrats were polled and how many republicans were polled? How many union households were polled? We are to believe that an improving economy, balanced budgets, much less expensive state employee health insurance, an end to compulsory dues extortion by government unions, and no teacher layoffs mean Scott Walker is going to lose? PPP should stop polling the Rachel Madcow and shortbus Ed Schutz show audiences - about 900 people - and do an in depth poll. Maybe then it wouldn't be so transparent and laughable.

Stop embarrassing yourself, Mikecampbell. You didn't ask any of those questions when the health care polls were going your way. Until you're ready to be intellectually consistent you won't be taken seriously.

Actually the amount of jobs in Wisconsin is meaningless when you don't compare it. That CES report cited actually says this farther on

"CES employment peaked in January 2008 for Wisconsin at 2,895,000. Since then 155,500 jobs have been lost in Wisconsin according to the employer survey. From a trough of 2,723,600 in January 2010, Wisconsin has gained 15,900 jobs according to CES employment figures."

So from rock bottom, Wisconsin has gained 16,000 jobs. In comparison, this is the same as Nevada - the state with one of the highest unemployment rates in the nation. Walker has a tough case to make.