Why this is too optimistic:Phillips has declined pretty noticeably the past two seasons, going from .300/.353/.457 with 14 SBs in 2011 to .261/.310/.396 with five SBs last year. Now 32, Phillips is pretty much having a textbook career arc, which means he's likely to continue regressing. That doesn't mean he'll completely collapse, but at his current rate of regression, he'd fall short of the batting average, homers, stolen bases and runs we're penciling him in for. And with new manager Bryan Price in Cincinnati, Phillips could find himself dropping from his customary cleanup spot if he doesn't produce early in the season, which will likely limit his RBI chances, too.

Why this is too pessimistic: Phillips has played in at least 141 games and hit at least 17 HRs in eight straight seasons. Prior to last year, he stole at least 14 bases every season since '06. The runs and RBIs have varied a bit based on where he hit in the batting order, but Phillips has always been in the neighborhood of what we're projecting for him. It's not crazy to think he can have a bounce-back season, particularly in the average and SB departments. The Reds are still loaded offensively and could (emphasis on "could") finally have a "real" leadoff hitter this year in Billy Hamilton. If Phillips stays nears the top of the order, he's a threat for triple-digit RBIs. Overall, our projection looks pretty dead-on for what you can expect this year, but that just makes Phillips boring -- not worthless.