Analyzing the 2016 MLB MVP odds

byTravis Reed

Yesterday, over at the blog at Sports Insights, they posted the 2016 MLB MVP odds. I am giddy about the start of the MLB season and looking at the MVP odds got me excited about who I would take. Before I just pick a couple of names off the list, I wanted to do some research before I made my picks.

The first thing I looked at were the last 20 complete seasons in the wildcard era. I looked at the team that the MVP winner was on and how many wins they had during their MVP season and whether or not the team made the playoffs. Here is that data:

Year

MVP

Wins

Playoffs

MVP

Wins

Playoffs

2015

Josh Donaldson

93

Yes

Bryce Harper

83

No

2014

Mike Trout

98

Yes

Clayton Kershaw

94

Yes

2013

Miguel Cabrera

93

Yes

Andrew McCutchen

94

Yes

2012

Miguel Cabrera

88

Yes

Buster Posey

94

Yes

2011

Justin Verlander

95

Yes

Ryan Braun

96

Yes

2010

Josh Hamilton

90

Yes

Joey Votto

91

Yes

2009

Joe Mauer

87

Yes

Albert Pujols

91

Yes

2008

Dustin Pedroia

95

Yes

Albert Pujols

86

No

2007

Alex Rodriguez

94

Yes

Jimmy Rollins

89

Yes

2006

Justin Morneau

96

Yes

Ryan Howard

85

No

2005

Alex Rodriguez

95

Yes

Albert Pujols

100

Yes

2004

Vladimir Guerrero

92

Yes

Barry Bonds

91

No

2003

Alex Rodriguez

71

No

Barry Bonds

100

Yes

2002

Miguel Tejada

103

Yes

Barry Bonds

95

Yes

2001

Ichiro Suzuki

116

Yes

Barry Bonds

93

Yes

2000

Jason Giambi

91

Yes

Jeff Kent

97

Yes

1999

Ivan Rodriguez

95

Yes

Chipper Jones

103

Yes

1998

Juan Gonzalez

88

Yes

Sammy Sosa

90

Yes

1997

Ken Griffey Jr.

90

Yes

Larry Walker

83

No

1996

Juan Gonzalez

90

Yes

Ken Caminiti

91

Yes

The average number of wins by the team of the eventual MVP winner is around 93. Of the 40 MVP winners listed, 85% of them were on teams that made it to the playoffs. In the American League, only Alex Rodriguez in 2003 won the MVP on a team that didn’t make it to the postseason. In fact, let’s take a look at the six MVP winners whose teams didn’t advance to the playoffs to see if we can spot a trend:

MVP

AVG

HR

RBI

OPS+

WAR

2015 Harper

.330

42

99

195

9.9

2008 Pujols

.357

37

116

192

9.2

2006 Howard

.313

58

149

167

5.2

2004 Bonds

.362

45

101

263

10.6

2003 A-Rod

.298

47

118

147

8.4

1997 Walker

.366

49

130

178

9.8

So if you are going to pick a player that doesn’t make the playoffs, you better hope they have an all-time season. Otherwise, it looks like the voters tend to value helping your team into the playoffs. So to improve your odds of picking the MVP, let’s limit the teams that are expected to have good seasons. By only looking at teams with a win total over/under of 85 or more, we are left with 12 teams remaining. Paul Goldschmidt, Joey Votto, and Robinson Cano are all great players but their teams will have to greatly exceed expectations to put them in the MVP conversation at the end of the season.

Let’s start in the American League. You may be surprised to learn that there are only five teams in the AL with a win total of 85 or more: Astros, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Yankees, and Indians. Now just because the Angels aren’t projected to do well as a team doesn’t mean that Mike Trout doesn’t have a chance to win the MVP. He’s the favorite to win and he definitely should be. But if another player on a playoff team has a similar season, the vote historically has swung his way.

My Pick: Carlos Correa +3300

The Astros currently have the highest win total of any team in the league and although he is young, Correa is already the best player on that team. Carlos also has the benefit of playing shortstop. In recent years, voters have seemed to put more and more emphasis into defense (and also baserunning) which could help in the final vote.

In the National League, there are seven teams with a win total of 85 or more: Cubs, Dodgers, Mets, Giants, Nationals, Cardinals, and Pirates. The Cubs seem to be everyone’s pick this season and almost all of their props and win totals are going to be inflated. Most of the Mets’ best players are starting pitchers and although Verlander and Kershaw have won in recent years, a positional player is still the best bet.

My Pick: Yasiel Puig +4000

The Dodgers had some roster turnover during the offseason including losing Zack Greinke to the Diamondbacks. While he won’t easily be replaced, Los Angeles is still in a great position to get to the postseason as Andrew Friedman has built the team with depth at almost every position. Puig is a polarizing player as most fans either love him or hate him but he still has all the tools to be one of the best players in the game.

Correa and Puig are both in the top 16 in projected WAR by Steamer and are on teams that are projected to do well this season. There are a lot of things that can happen during a 162-game season but I like both of these value picks to come through in September.