Celtics postseason forecast

It’s time to get down to business. The Celtics have coasted through their recent schedule, but reality sets in Saturday with the start of the playoffs. It doesn’t get any more real than a series with the Knicks. These teams hate each other. They play vastly different styles, the Knicks chucking up 3-pointers, the Celtics digging their heels into the earth like piping plovers. The basketball is bound to be wildly entertaining. The Celtics were able to turn it on last season and make a run to Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals, but there are many differences between this year’s team and last year’s. We break down the keys to another deep playoff run.
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Jim Davis/Globe Staff

Can they work KG back into the mix?

Kevin Garnett was phenomenal in the 2012 playoffs, turning back the clock to average 19.2 points and 10.3 rebounds on 48-percent shooting. Those numbers were vastly improved from the regular season, a sign that the switch to the center position was more comfortable for the veteran big man. The Celtics have been resting Garnett of late due to an injury the severity of which no one is sure. Working Garnett back into the lineup might not as easy as sticking the 36-year-old back in there. Especially tricky is getting Garnett to mesh with Jeff Green. The starting lineup of Garnett, Green, Paul Pierce, Avery Bradley, and Brandon Bass has only started three games this season

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AP

Can Avery Bradley play lead guard?

It’s been an up-and-down season for the young Celtics guard, who looked ready to break out earlier this season in the absence of Rajon Rondo. Boston’s defense has greatly improved since Bradley’s return, the team moving from the middle of the pack in defensive rating to 6th at season’s end. Bradley is absolutely a factor on D, but the rest of his game has fallen off the rails recently. He shot just 36 percent from the field in 16 March games. He only slightly improved in April. There’s a lot of pressure on this 22-year-old kid.

The Celtics have alternatively leaned heavily on and shied away from Randolph, the only true center on the team’s roster. Greg Stiemsma was extensively used in last year’s playoffs as Garnett’s backup. Randolph can be used in a similar role if the Celtics want to go big, but Chris Wilcox, Brandon Bass, and even Jeff Green give the Celtics other options if they want to go small. The guess here is Randolph will be an emergency fill-in.

In 2007, Pierce went toe-to-toe with the likes of LeBron James and Kobe Bryant and came out on top. Pierce can still summon the offense when needed, but that superhuman effort is bound to weigh on his defense. Pierce is underrated on that end of the floor, where he leads the team in charges. The question is whether or not the Celtics captain can muster the energy to be the team’s best player every night. Paging Jeff Green.

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Jared Wickerham/Getty Images

Can Brandon Bass be consistently visible?

Bass played second fiddle to Garnett during last year’s playoffs, but he did it extraordinarily well considering the lack of options the Celtics had in the frontcourt. He’s been hot and cold this season, but he’s come on of late, averaging 15 points and 6.1 rebounds in April. Bass fares much better as a starter (50 percent shooting) than a reserve (40 percent shooting), but we’ve yet to see much of Bass and Jeff Green in the same starting lineup.

This may be the single biggest question for the Celtics. Start with the Knicks series. New York is third in the league in offensive rating and first in both 3-pointers made and attempted. The Knicks can score in bunches, which is something the Celtics have a very difficult time doing. The Celtics are 24th in the league in offensive rating and 25th in 3-pointers made. More importantly, they lack a go-to scorer outside of Pierce, and even Pierce can’t fill it up anymore like Carmelo Anthony does now.

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Jim Davis/Globe Staff

Can they flip the switch?

This one’s in reference to Boston’s 11-13 record in the last two months. The Celtics sputtered through most of the regular season last year as well, but they turned it on before the playoffs, going 22-10 in March and April last year. The question now is whether or not the Celtics will be able to switch it on in the playoffs without having ramped things up first.

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AP

Will Jordan Crawford be an asset or a liability?

Doc Rivers said earlier this season that his enigmatic guard is on the All-Scare Team, both for his own coach and the opposing one. Crawford can score, but he also forces shots, makes bad passes, and turns the ball over. There’s always a 2-6 minute window where Crawford is effective in a game, and Rivers is forced to gamble on just how long to leave him in there before he turns into a pumpkin.

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Reuters

Can the chips fall their way?

Things worked out for the Celtics during last year’s playoffs. The Bulls lost Derrick Rose in their very first game. Al Horford sat for Atlanta. Chris Bosh missed five games for the Heat, and that series turned drastically when Bosh was inserted back into the lineup. The Knicks do not present an easy first-round matchup. The Pacers or Hawks are waiting in Round 2. The Heat, who are at full strength this season and getting better, hold the keys to the gate.

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Jared Wickerham/Getty Images

How will Rajon Rondo be missed?

We’re not a part of the lunatic fringe who suggests the Celtics are somehow better without their All-Star point guard. Rajon Rondo will be missed, but the question is how <em>exactly</em> the Celtics will miss Rondo. The guess here is Rondo will be missed most on offense, particularly when the second unit is on the floor. The Celtics have failed to generate scoring with Paul Pierce off the floor, and they’ll miss Rondo’s ability to get players easy looks. If other teams decide to press, the Celtics could be in trouble as well.

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AP

Does rebounding matter?

The Celtics haven’t been a great rebounding team for a long time. They haven’t even been a good one. This season, Boston ranks 29th in total rebounding. They lack a true rebounding presence now that rookie Jared Sullinger is out for the year. Losing Rajon Rondo hurts them in this area as well. The Knicks are not a great rebounding team either (they rank 26th). This isn’t likely to be a series won in the trenches, but for the Celtics, maybe it should be.

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