Trends

We’ve reached the moment of truth. Many moments of truth; something is going to happen this month. The only question is whether the stock market crowd is going to keep their heads in the sand. With everything swirling around I can’t imagine how that’s possible.

The U.S. dollar is mixed against majors after staging a comeback late in the week. The USD regained some ground even though the biggest indicator in the market the U.S. non farm payrolls (NFP) report disappointed by adding less than the expected number of jobs (156,000 versus 180,000) but the data point that had more significance was the low pace of growth of wages at 0.1%. A third rate hike for U.S. interest rates could be pushed back to next year if inflation does not pick up convincing the Federal Reserve.

Do you believe in Christmas in August? Better get used to it, we are upon the traditionally slowest volume week of the year other than Christmas. This year, a lot is going on which is simmering under the surface. We may just get a break from it this week.

The U.S. dollar is lower against most majors as the central bank summit in Jackson Hole kicked off. The Euro has regained January 2015 levels on Friday. Fed Chair Janet Yellen, in what could be her last appearance at the Wyoming gathering as chief of the U.S. central bank, focused on financial regulation with limited comments on monetary policy.

Last week I told you risk for the markets was off the charts. Last week Google is down 1.5%, FB down marginally, Amazon down 2%, AAPL up marginally and NFLX down 5%. Biotech is down 2.9% as is housing. These are not big numbers, but when you look at some of these charts we are starting to see technical damage for the first time in a long time.

It was a fine intraday shorting opportunity on the YM. Like most days those of us keeping our nose to the grindstone work to eke out some points. Check this out, it doesn’t get much nicer than this. The pivot in question is 233 min (Fibonacci) high to high to 21987 and the 987 is the vibration (Fibonacci).

Right now, the FANG stocks are getting hit. The question is whether there will be follow through. But other sink holes in the market are developing. The Transports got smashed on Thursday and it was only three weeks ago they gave the Dow a Dow theory confirmation when both went to new highs. On Thursday and again Friday the Dow itself hit new all-time highs. You see the trannies going the other way so this is becoming the classic non-confirmation.

The U.S. dollar is lower against the major pairs after the political uncertainty in Washington and mixed economic fundamentals took their toll on the greenback. The first week of August will be full of economic releases with major central banks on the agenda as well as the week wrapping up with the biggest economic indicator in the market, the United States Non-farm payrolls report.

The U.S. dollar is weaker against most of the majors after a week where there was little on the U.S. economic calendar with the spotlight on Washington's rising political tensions. The investigation into Russian ties during the presidential election, the lack of momentum in policy reform put the emphasis on political uncertainty that punished the U.S. dollar.

It’s been a long season of disappointment for the bears. Chalk up another one. Once again, the Dow came to edge and didn’t jump. Tuesday was the big day. Markets started dropping like a rock on the apparent news of yet another “Russian collusion scandal” involving Trump’s son. You know all about it. But by the time it started turning up news broke the Senate decided to stay in session for the better part of August. Markets turned up and fully recovered.