Washington, DC – On election day, December 12 we at IAT are projecting that Doug Jones has a positive chance of winning in Alabama, while pointers say his rival Roy Moore is up on the betting market.

President Donald Trump has endorsed Moore and his party’s Republican National Committee is back to supporting him. Trump openly talked in favor of Moore, along with the following latest tweets bashing Jones on Twitter as being soft on crime and bad for the Republican agenda:

On Dec 9: “A big contingent of very enthusiastic Roy Moore fans at the rally last night. We can’t have a Pelosi/Schumer Liberal Democrat, Jones, in that important Alabama Senate seat. Need your vote to Make America Great Again! Jones will always vote against what we must do for our Country.”

On Dec 8: ”LAST thing the Make America Great Again Agenda needs is a Liberal Democrat in Senate where we have so little margin for victory already. The Pelosi/Schumer Puppet Jones would vote against us 100% of the time. He’s bad on Crime, Life, Border, Vets, Guns & Military. VOTE ROY MOORE!”

On Dec 4: “Putting Pelosi/Schumer Liberal Puppet Jones into office in Alabama would hurt our great Republican Agenda of low on taxes, tough on crime, strong on military and borders…& so much more. Look at your 401-k’s since Election. Highest Stock Market EVER! Jobs are roaring back!”

But Moore, who has been accused of sexual misconduct with women, poses a moral, religious and conscience-stirring dilemma for Alabama’s enthusiastic Christian Republican base. Multiple women have accused Moore of pursuing them while they were teenagers and he was in his 30s.

With a volatile electorate, the polls in Alabama are swinging back and forth between Moore and Jones over the past month depending on who is conducting/publishing them.

Although the white voters especially in rural Alabama, have traditionally voted Republican, the allegations against Moore have converted some Republicans and discouraged others. With the allegations taking national stage and the wave of the Silence Breakers, which won “Person of the Year” award from Time magazine, Moore can not avoid ethical questions.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has said that if Moore wins, the Senate Ethics Committee would handle the allegations. “The committee would look at the case and give us their advice,” McConnell said. McConnell added the Senate GOP fundraising arm was not providing any new resources to the Moore campaign, even though the Republican National Committee (RNC) was again backing Moore.

Jones’ appeal to the black voters is that he successfully prosecuted the Ku Klux Klan (KKK) church bombers who killed four black girls during the civil rights movement. If black voters come out in droves for Jones, that could be a deciding factor.

Overall, the supporters, especially black voters getting out and voting will be enough for Jones as he already has a significant number of disgruntled GOP voters ready to cast their vote for him.

On the eve of the election, IAT projects that a combination of a Democratic turnout, Republican defections, and Republican apathy would allow Jones to romp home.