Tomatoes might put bite on you

Updated 11:17 am, Tuesday, January 29, 2013

Photo: Brant Ward, The Chronicle

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The new modified tomatoes showing different ripening stages, but each has vibrant color, an indication of sugar and taste. UC Davis researchers have developed new science to put flavor back into tomatoes using the naturally occurring forms of the gene GLK2.

The new modified tomatoes showing different ripening stages, but each has vibrant color, an indication of sugar and taste. UC Davis researchers have developed new science to put flavor back into tomatoes using

U.S. consumers can add the “tomato cliff' to the nation's recent list of potential crises, according to a study commissioned by a group representing produce importers.

The report forecasts tomato prices will double to $5 or more a pound if the federal government scraps a pricing agreement with Mexico.

The U.S. Department of Commerce in August announced initial plans to terminate minimum prices on tomatoes that were set in 1996 to resolve antidumping claims. A final decision is expected around mid-May, department spokesman Tim Truman said.

The government is considering ending the pact because of U.S. growers' complaints — especially in Florida — that it's outdated and rarely enforced.

Mexico currently exports about 3 billion pounds of tomatoes a year to the United States, more than half the U.S. market's winter supply and nearly 43 percent of the summer supply.

Edward Beckman, president of Certified Greenhouse Farmers, said the pricing agreement came at the infancy of greenhouse growing, which is cost-intensive but now produces about half of the tomatoes sold in the U.S. market.

The method has caught on in Mexico, but Beckman said U.S. growers — including a growing pocket of greenhouse producers in West Texas — can't compete with Mexico's pricing.

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“The law says that you cannot as an exporter send product into the United States at prices well under your cost of production,” he said. “And that's obviously what's happening.”

But the Fresh Produce Association of the Americas, the Nogales, Ariz.-based group that commissioned the study, and Texans invested in cross-border commerce said that view is short-sighted, considering the repercussions should Mexico decide to retaliate.

If U.S. growers request a new antidumping investigation, it could set off tariffs that would make it prohibitive for Mexico to remain in the U.S. market, FPAA President Lance Jungmeyer said. That could, in turn, lead to sticker shock at the supermarket, he added.

The study was conducted by Arizona State University economists, who used data from a 2011 freeze in Mexico to extrapolate what would happen if Mexico withdrew its tomatoes from the U.S. market.

The analysis concluded that December-May retail prices could jump by 97.9 percent for hothouse round tomatoes, 96.9 percent for hothouse vine, 61.3 percent for snacking, and 52.1 percent for field tomatoes. Roma tomatoes could rise by 217.2 percent.

“This is like playing Russian roulette with America's pocketbook,” Jungmeyer said.

“If they cannot come to an agreement,” he said, “then we are concerned about the potential ramifications, the spillover that could impact other products because of a possible trade war.”

What Mexico exports in tomatoes, it makes up for with its imports — and Erickson said there already were rumblings that Mexico was backing off on a huge expansion of U.S. potato imports.

More than half the produce shipped out of Texas comes through Mexico, he said, and the Pharr-Reynosa International Bridge is starting to eclipse the Nogales port for produce volume.

The Valley has seen significant investment in cold storage facility space in anticipation of completion of the Durango-Mazatlán highway, an engineering feat that will provide a direct link to the Pacific Coast.

“You can hardly drive down in the free trade zone south of McAllen without seeing a new facility there,” Erickson said.

San Antonio-based NatureSweet is one company that has invested heavily in greenhouse-produced tomatoes, including its trademark “cherub” variety.

CEO Bryant Amberlang said he for one wasn't worried about antidumping claims — consumers generally paid a higher price for the company's niche tomatoes.

The problem, he said, was that Florida growers failed to build up their greenhouse production.

“What has happened in the last few years is that as Mexico has increased their production, they've increased their yields,” he said. “The open field growers located out of Florida that have lower quality are losing their market. So they're seeking an end to an agreement that has worked extremely well for producers who have invested.”