The state’s outlook was being ‘’dogged by demographic headwinds,” but helped by low interest and exchange rates, Access’ latest Business Outlook report said.

Zigging, not zagging: The dollar.

Access noted the drop-off in Tasmanian employment (4900 jobs since September 2015, according to Australian Bureau of Statistics trend terms figures).

“Although unemployment may have been going down through 2016 to date, so has the number of people with jobs, and there’s a risk that the pace of retirement among Tasmanians is now a stronger headwind for this state as its older than average population opts for the gold watch and the handshake,” the report said.

Echoing doubts about the figures among some economists, including Tasmanian-based Saul Eslake, it added an alternative explanation was the ABS job numbers were “having a hissy fit that isn’t actually matched by marketplace reality”.

“The jury is still out on that one.”

Access said the Australian dollar’s “never say die strength” was also a worry for Tasmania.

“Yes, the big picture shows an Australian dollar depreciation over recent years that has been to the benefit of the Tasmanian economy, but the $A has recently been zigging when Tassie would have been better off had it zagged ...”

It said currency competitiveness should stay near the top of the watchlist for where the state economy would head next.

Overall, Access said state economic performance had continued to be solid, with the big levers of economic growth shifting in Tasmania’s direction.

Tasmania was ranking well on indicators including retail sales growth, while wages growth had lifted from the “doldrums” of 2013 and 2014.

Population growth was at its strongest since 2011.

Access predicted:

Growth in gross state product would come in at 1.4 per cent this financial year and accelerate to 2 per cent by 2019-20;

income from exports overseas (which has been strong) would drop by 5.7 per cent this financial year before rebounding strongly in the following two years;