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AK's 3/27 Mock:

03-27-2011, 10:08 PM

Feeling more confident in some picks now as we start the 1-month countdown.

I apologize if there are errors in this. I had the picks made out ahead of time, but as I finished writing this up and adding pictures I realized I am late for something and my fingers were flying pretty fast on the keyboard.

1. Carolina Panthers: Cam Newton - QB - Auburn

(Note: I went back and forth on Newton/Gabbert here for awhile, but too many solid reports coming out now that Newton is the apple of Carolina's eye.)
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2. Denver Broncos: Marcell Dareus - DT/DE - Alabama

(Note: Dareus has safely passed Fairley on almost every board and looks like a perfect need/value fit to Denver.)
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(Note: This is one of the more difficult picks, especially since reports came out that the Bengals prefer Julio Jones to Green, but it doesn't make sense to me that the Bengals would let that info leak. Sounds like a way to keep a team from leapfrogging them for Green to me...)
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5. Arizona Cardinals: Patrick Paterson - CB - LSU

(Note: Other option here is Gabbert, but the team could use another CB to pair with DRC and getting possibly the best player in the draft is too good fo a fit.)
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6. Cleveland Browns: DaQuan Bowers - DE - Clemson

(Note: Knee injury reports are making a ding in Bowers' draft stock, but with the Browns switching defensive schemes, it's not enough of a concern to pass up the potential here.)
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7. San Francisco 49ers: Prince Amukamara - CB - Nebraska

(Note: A popular pick for a good reason. 49ers need CB help and Amukamara has done nothing but impress in the process leading up to the draft.)
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8. Tennessee Titans: Blaine Gabbert - QB - Missouri

(Note: The Titans really luck out if Gabbert falls to them at #8. In fact, if Gabbert falls past the Bills at #3, I think there's an excellent chance the Bengals pull the trigger on a move down with either Titans [#8], Redskins [#10], or Vikings [#12] and target A.J. Green [if he falls] or Julio Jones.)
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9. Dallas Cowboys: J.J. Watt - DE - Wisconsin

(Note: The other option here is Tyron Smith, but this is a deep OT class, and the fit with Watt is too good to pass on.)
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10. Washington Redskins: Julio Jones - WR - Alabama

(Note: I know it would be out of character to see Shanny and the Redskins go WR here, but the only other good option is Robert Quinn, and with a stud OLB in Orakpo and the massive WR need I don't see how they could pass on Jones.)
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11. Houston Texans: Robert Quinn - OLB - North Carolina

(Note: I think the Texans are targeting J.J. Watt here, but Quinn is the backup plan as they switch to the 3-4 defense.)
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12. Minnesota Vikings: Jake Locker - QB - Washington

(Note: Reports out of Minnesota are pretty convincing that Frazier and the Vikings are going QB or bust here. Even with Gabbert and Newton off the board, I think they would "reach" on Locker at #12. Frazier has been emphasizing the intangibles he wants in his future QB, and to most observers it sounds an awful lot like a description of Locker.)
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13. Detroit Lions: Tyron Smith - OT - USC

(Note: Another one of those fairly easy picks. Smith is a good value here, and fills a huge need in protecting Matt Stafford's shoulder.)
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14. St Louis Rams: Nick Fairley - DT - Auburn

(Note: Fairley could be in for a fall on draft day due to slight character concerns, the teams/needs picking in the top-10, and the fact that he's a 4-3-only player. The Rams are a nice fit to end his fall if it does happen.)
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15. Miami Dolphins: Mark Ingram - RB - Alabama

(Note: With Newton, Gabbert, and Locker off the board, the Dolphins have a pretty easy time taking Ingram here.)
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16. Jacksonville Jaguars: Ryan Kerrigan - DE - Purdue

(Note: Kerrigan's stock is reportedly rising [not sure why at this time of the year] but regardless, he's been a great fit for the Jaguars all along.)
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17. New England Patriots (f/OAK): Mike Pouncey - OG/C - FLorida

(Note: I'm finally on the Mike Pouncey train. I hate when players get promoted because of their last name, but he's earned the right to be drafted very high. Patriots reporters are already saying this pick would not surprise them.)
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18. San Diego Chargers: Cameron Jordan - DE - California

(Note: Jordan's stock shot up after the Senior Bowl, but it's quieted down as time has passed. He's still a great prospect, especially for 3-4 teams.)
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19. New York Giants: Corey Liuget - DT - Illinois

(Note: The Giants are probably the biggest wildcards in round 1, but they look like a very possible fit for the under-rated Liuget.)
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20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Aldon Smith - DE - Missouri

(Note: Scouts have brought up some concerns about Smith, and his ability to be a 3-4 OLB are being questioned, but he's a nice fit in Tampa as a 4-3 DE.)
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21. Kansas City Chiefs: Phil Taylor - DT - Baylor

(Note: Taylor has helped himself as much as any prospect in terms of improving stock after the college season ended. Reports of him "forklifting" guards at the Senior Bowl are sick.)
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22. Indianapolis Colts: Anthony Castonzo - OT - Boston College

(Note: Solder is another possibility here, but the Colts need the guy who is ready to start sooner.)
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23. Philadelphia Eagles: Jimmy Smith - CB - Colorado

(Note: Eagles could use a CB here or possibly a RT like Gabe Carimi. Brandon Harris might be a possibility, but Smith's skillset gives him the nod.)
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24. New Orleans Saints: Adrian Clayborn - DE - Iowa

(Note: Clayborn might fall a few pick because of concerns over his arm, but the Saints could really get a good pickup if he's on the board and they pull the trigger.)
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25. Seattle Seahawks: Christian Ponder - QB - Florida State

(Note: I'm a huge Ponder fan, and while I think talk of him going in the top half of round 1 is a little unrealistic, I do think he's a perfect fit in Seattle's WCO and is a very possible pick here come April 28th.)
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26. Baltimore Ravens: Muhammad Wilkerson - DE - Temple

(Note: Wilkerson is probably the hottest prospect right now, as scouts have been raising him higher and higher on the boards as they watch more tape on him. While not a "sexy" pick for Baltimore, it's a traditional "BPA" great value and he fits nicely in their defense.)
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27. Atlanta Falcons: Justin Houston - DE - Georgia

(Note: I think Houston ends up being drafted as a 4-3 DE, and Atlanta is the perfect spot in terms of need and value.)
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28. New England Patriots: Cameron Heyward - DE - Ohio State

(Note: The other option here is OLB, but there will be great options there at #33 [Brookes Reed, etc.] Heyward and Pouncey makes for a heck of a round 1 in New England.)
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29. Chicago Bears: Nate Solder - OT - Colorado

(Note: I think this pick has to be an OT, as we all saw what happened to Cutler last season. Solder has fallen some in the draft process, but still has the tools and potential that made him such a highly rated prospect when the 2010 NFL season ended. Gabe Carimi is an option as well, but I do not think he will be an NFL LT, and Cutler's blind side needs to be the focus.)
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30. New York Jets: Stephen Paea - DT - Oregon State

(Note: A great fit as NT in the Jets defense, and his strength and power will fit right in with the Jets personality.)
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31. Pittsburgh Steelers: Gabe Carimi - OT - Wisconsin

(Note: A great fit as a nasty mauling lineman in Pittsburgh's trenches.)
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32. Green Bay Packers: Aaron Williams - CB - Texas

(Note: DB depth is one area Green Bay is thinking about, and Williams fits in on defense as a physical CB who can eventually replace the aging Charles Woodson.)

Comment

Comment

The Lions may have to go BPA and take Fairley in that situation. Corey Williams and Sammie Lee Hill are good defensive tackles but it would be so nasty to line up Fairley next to Suh. I would definitely take Fairley over a raw OT prospect that has never played on the left side. Nice presentation of the picks.

Comment

Wow, sick layout. I think I might try that out if you don't mind. The mocks around here could stand to be a little prettier. Nice Patriots mock.

Yeah feel free to use the layout. I started doing them like this last year and really like it. Just copy the logo URLs, and all player photos from the combine are on the nfl.com combine page under "participants" I believe.

Comment

The Lions may have to go BPA and take Fairley in that situation. Corey Williams and Sammie Lee Hill are good defensive tackles but it would be so nasty to line up Fairley next to Suh. I would definitely take Fairley over a raw OT prospect that has never played on the left side. Nice presentation of the picks.

I considered Fairley there, it would be nasty to have him next to Suh, but unless you guys brought in a solid OT by FA/trade (if this labor thing ever gets resolved) I can't see gambling Stafford's shoulder by passing on a potential franchise OT in Tyron Smith.

But that being said, I would not be surprised if Schwartz wasn't able to pass up another stud DT.