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We last surveyed the electoral math a week and a half ago, but as
we get closer to the election, the poll data will stream in
faster and faster, meaning we've got to keep up by pacing these
columns faster as well.

While the overall split between the candidates hasn't changed a
whole lot since last time, the dynamics of the race underlying
the overall numbers has indeed shifted for both candidates. The
news was slightly better for each candidate in some regards, and
slightly worse in others. All around, Barack Obama is holding
onto and improving on his post-convention bounce, and Mitt
Romney continues to struggle to make any ground, while
slightly strengthening his base.

Here's how the election would break down if held today. Obama's
electoral votes (or "EV") start from the bottom of the chart and
are measured in blue, while Romney's start from the top and are
in red, with ties colored white in the middle. As mentioned, this
chart has stayed fairly stable:

[Click on any of theses graphs to see larger-scale
versions.]

Both candidates spiked downward briefly, as states posted tied
polls, but then mostly recovered. New Hampshire is still tied,
bringing Obama down minutely to 61 percent. Romney ended as he
started, around 38 percent.

Thirteen states this time around showed significant shifts in
polling, but by the end of the period three had wobbled back to
where they started. Michigan briefly lost support for Obama, then
regained it, and each candidate lost a state to a "tied" poll
before regaining it: Obama in Colorado, and Romney in North
Carolina.

Romney's good news balanced his bad news, as two states got
stronger and two got weaker. Polls in both South Dakota and
Georgia showed Romney has locked up these two, while Indiana got
weaker and Arizona got alarmingly weak for Romney.

Obama had more good news than bad this time around, as one state
considerably weakened while five strengthened. Connecticut is now
all but a lock for Obama, and four very critical swing states are
looking better and better: Nevada, Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin.
New Hampshire is still tied, which is a major drop in polling
there for Obama.

Let's take a closer look at each candidate's chart, starting with
Mitt Romney:

[Definition of terms: "Strong" means 10% or better in the
polls,
"Weak" means 5% or better, and "Barely" is under five
percent.]

Mitt Romney started out this period (from the last vertical line,
signifying when the last of these columns ran) with Indiana
dropping from Strong to Weak. He almost immediately offset this
loss with two polls from rarely-polled states, Georgia and South
Dakota, which moved them both into Strong Romney. A bigger blow
to the Romney team was losing Arizona from Weak to Barely,
continuing a downward slide for Romney in the state. Can Obama
actually compete in Arizona? If I were Romney, that thought would
be worrisome, to say the least. North Carolina was briefly tied,
ominously putting Romney's total in the chart at below 200 EV for
the second time this month.

Overall, Romney recovered and ended where he started, with a
total of 206 EV. Within the categories, it was a mixed result, as
Romney actually improved his Strong numbers from 128 EV to 136
EV, but lost ground on the more important "Strong Plus Weak"
metric, falling from 181 EV to 170 EV. This is not only a low
point for Romney's entire campaign here, but is also a full 36 EV
lower than it was two weeks ago. That is a trend which is heading
into some dismal territory for Mitt Romney's campaign.

By comparison, let's take a look at Barack Obama's chart:

Obama started off this period losing Michigan from Strong down to
Weak, but by the end had captured it back. Colorado moved from
Barely to Tied, but then bounced back as well. More worrisome
(although proportionally much smaller) was the loss of New
Hampshire from Weak all the way down to Tied, where it remains
today. But from this point on, the news was all good for Team
Obama, as Wisconsin and Virginia moved from Barely to Weak and
Connecticut moved from Weak to Strong once again. The biggest
news was at the end, when Nevada and Ohio also moved from Barely
to Weak for Obama.

Overall, Obama's total didn't change much, and actually slipped
back from 332 EV to 328 EV, with the loss of New Hampshire. Below
the surface, however, Obama started with a small slump but then
came roaring back. His Strong number started at 208 EV, fell to
192 EV, and then rose to finish at a whopping 215 EV -- nine more
electoral votes than Mitt Romney's overall total, it bears
pointing out. At the same time, Obama more than doubled
his count in the Weak category, from 33 EV to 69 EV. The only bad
news Obama got (other than New Hampshire) was that he didn't
manage to steal away any Romney states -- which isn't all that
bad of news, at this stage in the race.

The biggest news for Obama is that he has now hit a significant
milestone in the electoral race, one he has already managed to
accomplish three times already -- Obama's Strong Plus Weak number
now stands at 284 EV, which is 14 more than he needs to win a
second term. If the election were held today and all the polls
stayed firm, to put this another way, it would not
matter how Colorado, Iowa, North Carolina, and Florida
voted, because Obama would win without their votes.

Obama managed to increase his Strong Plus Weak number by 43 EV
this time around, while Romney lost ground in this category. Last
time we compared the two, Obama had a 60 EV lead over Romney, but
this time Obama's Strong Plus Weak is a monumental 114 EV better
than Romney's add up to. That could be the start of an
insurmountable lead, although we still have almost six weeks to
go and things could always change.

My Picks

As always, my picks rely more on my gut than just raw poll
numbers, and are nothing more than how I am personally filling in
the electoral map these days. Slightly different categories are
used, to avoid too much confusion, and full lists of each
category's states appear at the bottom, along with a check on
which states either haven't been polled at all this year, or
haven't been polled in quite a while.

Likely States -- Obama

Safe Obama (15
states, 186 EV)
Obama gains one state in the rock-solid "Safe" category, as
Connecticut -- even with its bizarre Senate race -- seems like a
total lock for Obama at this point.

Probable Obama
(6 states, 74 EV)
Lots of movement within the Probable category, as Obama loses two
states (one up, one down) and gains two to replace them.
Connecticut moved up to Safe Obama, but New Hampshire fell down
to only Leaning Obama. To replace them, we're moving up Virginia
and Wisconsin. By polling numbers alone, these two states look
better and better for Obama, and I've got a good feeling about
both of them, so they land in Probable Obama this time around.

Likely States -- Romney

Safe Romney
(19 states, 156 EV)
Romney adds two states to his Safe category, as Georgia and South
Dakota move upwards.

Probable
Romney (2 states, 14 EV)
Romney loses three states here, as Georgia and South Dakota move
up and Arizona moves down to Lean Romney.

Tossup States

Lean Obama (5
states, 63 EV)
This category saw the most action during this period, as Obama
loses three states, holds onto one, and adds one to Lean.
Wisconsin and Virginia both moved up to Probable Obama, which was
the good news. The bad news was New Hampshire moving down here. I
almost moved New Hampshire all the way down to Too Close To Call,
but I think they just had one bad poll and Obama is stronger than
an actual tie in the state. Colorado also weakened, and has been
weaker than New Hampshire recently, so I did move it down to Too
Close To Call. Four states stayed in this category since last
time around. Florida and Iowa still can't be seen as stronger
than Lean Obama, and while a case could be made to move up Nevada
and Ohio, their firming up is so recent that more time must be
given to see whether Obama can hold onto his edge.

Lean Romney (2
states, 21 EV)
Missouri stays weakly in Romney's camp, and Arizona can't be seen
as any stronger than Lean Romney right now, either. Arizona could
even migrate down to Too Close To Call eventually, but more
polling is needed before such a drastic move.

Too Close To
Call (2 states, 24 EV)
Mitt Romney's hold on North Carolina remains tenuous at best.
Colorado moves into this category as well this time, as Obama's
advantage is just as razor-slim as Romney's in North Carolina
right now.

Final Tally

Barack Obama not only got a bounce from the Democratic National
Convention, he consolidated it and began setting a very positive
trendline in the Electoral College. By my figuring (feel free to
disagree in the comments, as always), Obama has 260 EV in his
pocket right now. Mitt Romney has slipped to only being able to
count on 170 EV. Obama needs only ten more electoral votes to
cross the finish line out of all the tossup states, while Romney
needs an even 100 EV to do the same.

As time goes by, it's getting harder and harder to see how Mitt
Romney is going to accomplish that mighty feat. President Obama,
on the other hand, needs only Florida, North Carolina, or Ohio to
nudge him into victory -- or any two of New Hampshire, Iowa, and
Nevada. His paths to victory are becoming ever more numerous,
while Mitt Romney still has to capture virtually every single
tossup state remaining -- Romney needs 100 EV out of only 108 EV
available.

Of course, we are heading into debate season, so things could
always change, but at the moment it is looking decidedly good for
an Obama win.

[Electoral Vote Data:]
(State electoral votes are in parenthesis following each
state's name. Washington D.C. is counted as a state)