Nate Silver of Five Thirty Eight has become a bit of a hero to those who turn to pundits and prognosticators. His accuracy at predicting voter results has made him an instant legend.

Silver has now reviewed 30 constitutional amendments and come up with a formula for predicting the results of votes to ban gay marriage. And it requires only three variables:

1. The year in which the amendment was voted upon;
2. The percentage of adults in 2008 Gallup tracking surveys who said that religion was an important part of their daily lives;
3. The percentage of white evangelicals in the state.

Silver sees a trend in which anti-gay bans lose about 2% support each year. And he projects the date at which such a ban could not be passed in each state (for example, California’s Proposition 8 would have failed in 2010).

Now, more than half of the US several states have already banned gay marriage. And there is a difference between defeating an anti-marriage amendment and supporting a pro-marriage amendment. But it is reasonable to assume that the date on which an anti-gay marriage amendment would fail and that on which a pro-gay marriage amendment would pass are not separated by too many years.

And he predicts that support for marriage bans will quite soon be limited to the states where one most expects it.

By 2016, only a handful of states in the Deep South would vote to ban gay marriage, with Mississippi being the last one to come around in 2024.

America will NEVER condone same-sex marriage at the expense of innocent children and those yet to be born. We must take every action to protect our younger members of society from unwanted gay tyranny in the public square.

Bills, put the Kool-Aid down. Your side is losing at a high-speed rate, and we won’t even have to wait for Mississippi before gay marriage rights are nationally enforcable. Sorry to be the one to break the news to you.

This all begs the question: Why the hell will it take the U.S., the supposed “leader of the free world,” so damn long to treat all of its citizens equally? Spain was ruled by a fascist dictator until 30-something years ago, and South Africa had Apartheid until 1994, yet they both have same-sex marriage now. Canada, whose culture is so similar to ours, has it too. So why do we have to wait until 2024?

LOL!!
Desperate people will believe anything that agrees with their hopes and dreams.
Hate to crush them folks, but the public is squarely against gay marriage and it isn’t going to reverse its opinion in 15 years.
Equal rights? YES
Gay Marriage? NO

People do not want to change the definition of marriage from a man and a woman to anybody and everybody.
It isn’t going to happen.
Stop wasting your time.

AJD, all of the United States citizens are treated equally under the law. The law says that marriage is between a man and a woman. If you don’t want to marry a person of the opposite sex, that’s your business. You have the same rights as anyone else. If you don’t like the “United States of Hypocrisy” then leave. Try Saudi Arabia and see if your gay marriage idea gains any traction over there.

Isnâ€™t it fascinating: Jack suggesting gays go live in a theocratic nation. It seems to me he would like the United States to be such a theocracy: Only those who believe in his version of religious marriage shall have any rights.

America will NEVER condone same-sex marriage at the expense of innocent children and those yet to be born. We must take every action to protect our younger members of society from unwanted gay tyranny in the public square. —Bills

Which essentially much means that America will condone Same-Sex Marriage. That’s because same-sex couples have been shown to make great parents, only have children because they truly want them, often wanting to adopt children apparently unwanted by heterosexuals that either could not care for them, or whose families disintegrated, or that did not want to abort their unborn children.

The only “tyranny in the public square” at work in the case of SSM is that of liars and cheats that have no legitimate arguments left to put forth against SSM and must resort to pseudo-science, distortions, and hate mongering to perpetuate the revenue streams and activism of the anti-gay industry. These illegitimate pretenders to morality are the tyrants unwanted by America.

“AJD, all of the United States citizens are treated equally under the law. The law says that marriage is between a man and a woman.”

LOL! Gay and straight people have the same rights because they both have the right to marry straight? Got it.

Reminds me of an old Soviet joke. “In America, you have the right to say Reagan is an evil man. And in Russia, we have the right to say Reagan is an evil man. You see? We have the same rights as you!”

As far as the article goes, it’s not wrong. Just terribly optimistic. Gay marriage *will* be legalized, but it’ll take a couple generations. The baby boomers are squarely against it. We’re squarely for it. Our kids will be “Is this a question?” for it.

The HETEROSEXUAL-ONLY MARRIAGE advocates want everyone to be the same. CP is on point with this Soviet Union joke â€œIn America, you have the right to say Reagan is an evil man. And in Russia, we have the right to say Reagan is an evil man. You see? We have the same rights as you!â€

Leave A Comment

All comments reflect the opinions of commenters only. They are not necessarily those of anyone associated with Box Turtle Bulletin. Comments are subject to our Comments Policy.

In this original BTB Investigation, we unveil the tragic story of Kirk Murphy, a four-year-old boy who was treated for “cross-gender disturbance” in 1970 by a young grad student by the name of George Rekers. This story is a stark reminder that there are severe and damaging consequences when therapists try to ensure that boys will be boys.

When we first reported on three American anti-gay activists traveling to Kampala for a three-day conference, we had no idea that it would be the first report of a long string of events leading to a proposal to institute the death penalty for LGBT people. But that is exactly what happened. In this report, we review our collection of more than 500 posts to tell the story of one nation’s embrace of hatred toward gay people. This report will be updated continuously as events continue to unfold. Check here for the latest updates.

In 2005, the Southern Poverty Law Center wrote that “[Paul] Cameron’s ‘science’ echoes Nazi Germany.” What the SPLC didn”t know was Cameron doesn’t just “echo” Nazi Germany. He quoted extensively from one of the Final Solution’s architects. This puts his fascination with quarantines, mandatory tattoos, and extermination being a “plausible idea” in a whole new and deeply disturbing light.

From the Inside: Focus on the Family’s “Love Won Out”

On February 10, I attended an all-day “Love Won Out” ex-gay conference in Phoenix, put on by Focus on the Family and Exodus International. In this series of reports, I talk about what I learned there: the people who go to these conferences, the things that they hear, and what this all means for them, their families and for the rest of us.

Using the same research methods employed by most anti-gay political pressure groups, we examine the statistics and the case studies that dispel many of the myths about heterosexuality. Download your copy today!

Anti-gay activists often charge that gay men and women pose a threat to children. In this report, we explore the supposed connection between homosexuality and child sexual abuse, the conclusions reached by the most knowledgeable professionals in the field, and how anti-gay activists continue to ignore their findings. This has tremendous consequences, not just for gay men and women, but more importantly for the safety of all our children.

Anti-gay activists often cite the “Dutch Study” to claim that gay unions last only about 1½ years and that the these men have an average of eight additional partners per year outside of their steady relationship. In this report, we will take you step by step into the study to see whether the claims are true.

Tony Perkins’ Family Research Council submitted an Amicus Brief to the Maryland Court of Appeals as that court prepared to consider the issue of gay marriage. We examine just one small section of that brief to reveal the junk science and fraudulent claims of the Family “Research” Council.

The FBI’s annual Hate Crime Statistics aren’t as complete as they ought to be, and their report for 2004 was no exception. In fact, their most recent report has quite a few glaring holes. Holes big enough for Daniel Fetty to fall through.