The report „Vision 2040 Hungary 2.0 - Go Ahead This Way: A Framework
of
a Sustainable Energy System
in Hungary" is a new edition of a possible renewable
energy transition scenario. The scenario was
developed by the Hungarian Environmental Education
Network Association (EENA), in cooperation with the
ELTE University Sustainable Energy Research Group
along with several other institutes.
The scenario is a result of continuous work began
in 2009 in cooperation with INFORSE-Europe. For
this updated edition, GIS applications were used to
calculate the potentials of the various renewable energy
sources, and the analysis has been expanded
with issues like the advantages of decentralized energy
systems, sustainable transportation systems, the regulation
background, and psychological aspects of the
energy transition. The report is important and timely,
as the Hungarian government is planning a new nuclear
power plant to be built with a loan from Russia.

A
new edition of the Sustainable Energy Vision called "Vision
2040 Hungary 2.0" is under preparation. The new version is
based on the feedback received on the original publication "Hungary
1.0",
which presented in
numerous conferences and lectures. The
original publication has version
number 1.0, and consequently little corrections and perfections
were edited in
vision 1.1 and 1.2.

By
March 2013, the vision's version 2.0 is under final consultations.
The new edition contains new chapters on energy planning
and energy transition written by new researchers who joined
the project from different fields, such as mechanical and
geothermal
engineers, economists, psychologist, as well as the vice-president
of the Hungarian Chamber of Architects. Simultaneously,
the
existed chapters
were
upgraded
also.
The
expected publishing date
is in
April
2013 at
the ELTE
University's website.
Contact: The
ELTE University Sustainable Energy Research Group and Environmental
Education Network Association (EENA). Email to BélaMunkácsy,
munkacsy@elte.hu .

Hungary, despite
being a land locked country, is actually very rich in renewable energy.
The renewable electricity production from
2001 till 2009 represents a five-fold increase in production. Today the
majority of Hungary`s renewable energy comes form biomass which accounts
for 90% and geothermal for 8.2%.

The Hungarian
"Vision2050" is similar to the vision for EU. It is
developed in cooperation with INFORSE-Europe and a an INFORSE-Europe
member. The Hungarian INFORSE
member is the Environmental Education Network Association (EENA),
which also cooperated
with a group of University students from the ELTE
University. The work was coordinated by Gunnar Boye Olesen (INFORSE-Europe)
and Béla Munkácsy (EENA and ELTE University).

The
Group's work consisted of:
- Working with a complex excel sheet model, which gives the final scenario
with graphical results.
- Estimating Hungary's renewable energy potential.- Using data from the International Energy Agency by sectors
in 1990, 2000, 2005.
- Estimating scenarios by 5 year from 2010 and 2050 based on the
historical data, and the renewable energy and energy efficiency potential.

The
Sustainable Energy Vision 2050 for Hungary shows that if the country
uses its potential in the use of renewable energy sources and the energy
efficiency, than the 100 % renewable energy scenario is possible.
It is physically possible, but it needs change in regulatory
frameworks and consumption attitudes.

4-Factor Energy Efficiency

In 2010, the primary
energy supply of Hungary is around 1100 PJ. According to the Vision's
scenario this value could be less than 400 PJ by 2050.

This is based
on that Hungary can reduce the specific energy demand
of
household
and service sector heating by 75% with respect to the given
floor space (Factor 4), but we must admit that this is not the final
value because of the presumably growing area of heated floor space.
The specific heat and fuel demand of production sector will be also
reduced
by around 60%.
The specific electricity demand in all sectors, except for transport
will be reduced to 45% of today’s value, while the electricity
consumption will stagnate until 2050.

As for the personal transport
the use of cars will be reduced to 65%, the value of air traffic is
going to be only 70% of today’s. These
reductions will be compensated by the growth of public transport sector,
which is going to be more than doubled, meanwhile the efficiency will
be reduced in all sectors, especially in case of cars and buses (to 25-30%) – thanks
to the switch to electric engines. Goods transport, related to the value
of 2000, will show a growing tendency in activity, except for pipelines,
which will reduce to 5% due to the decreasing import of oil and gas.
Efficiency will be doubled on this field, as well.

To achieve these
energy efficiency, we took into consideration future
changes of consumers’ attitude
and an expected alteration of regulatory environment. These changes
will happen as the price of the conventional energy will increase,
but they are also needed to be supported by awareness campaigns, national
and EU regulatory
frameworks.

Energy Sources

In
2010, the supply of the fossil fuels (natural gas, oil and coal) and
the nuclear power are dominant. Among renewables, biomass is the
largest, but it still gives only around 3% of the total energy supply.

In 2050, according
to the scenario of the Vision the most significant energy sources
will be wind, sustainable biomass and
biogas.
Considering the potentials, the less important will
be energy plantation by utilizing 7% of its potential because of related
ecological problems. Meanwhile, in case of biogas we will take advantage
of 88% of its potential. The main cause of the higher rate of biogas-usage
is due to the possibility of widespread use, furthermore it might help
solving some problems of waste management.