Essentials

rainy and mid-50s most of the day, but clear by gametime, minimal wind

Run Offense vs Notre Dame

the thing no one remembers about this is Te'o made this tackle about two yards downfield

This was a slog for Purdue and not particularly effective for Michigan State, though the Spartans may have been better off imitating their Boise State gameplan: LeVeon Bell averaged 4.1 yards on just 19 carries.

You're probably all like "none of those teams have Denard Robinson," and that's true. But Michigan only got 114 yards last year, almost literally all of them from Denard. Vincent Smith, Michael Shaw, and Stephen Hopkins combined on eight carries that gained ten yards with a long of three. Denard managed 113 on 15 carries. This was very early in Borges's wild ride with the spread, though, and his first against a real opponent. The next week Robinson would carry 26 times against EMU, which is either inexplicable or Borges trying to get a handle on something he hadn't been able to against the Irish. Much rests on that handle being acquired by now.

Notre Dame's star is of course Manti Te'o, the inside linebacker from Hawaii who etc etc etc you've watched him meet Denard probably thirty times, you know all about Te'o. He's kind of good, you guys. This year I'm not even sure the ND LBs are freaking out enough to burn them on misdirection—whatever reads they're making have been accurate. The other guys aren't quite to that standard. Chris Fox is pretty vulnerable in space, whether it's tackling a guy or covering one; Carlo Calabrese is good, but not great.

The line is getting nasty. Nose tackle Louis Nix was a stumbling battleship last year; he's slimmed down and is two-gapping opponents effectively. Stephon Tuitt is a 3-4 DE at 300 pounds who has five sacks on the year, about which more later. They'll put LB Prince Shembo down at DE on passing downs and use Kapron Lewis-Moore (a strong candidate for Brooks Bollinger eighth year memorial senior) as a stouter run defender. These guys are all playing effectively, albeit against questionable offensive lines.

ND's 3-4 is predicated on two things: making you double those linemen to move them and getting both inside linebackers to the gap clean. This is happening a lot. The results are above.

Michigan has Denard!

…

Right, so that. Denard is a problem for anyone on the ground because he gives the offense an extra blocker. Opponents generally combat this by bringing down a safety, which ND will likely do by splitting him over the slot when there's a slot. There is a not-insignificant danger ND will not have to do this. Michigan's interior line has been worrying, and it's hard to see any of Michigan's OL in there being able to prevent Nix from bulling his way into the backfield without help. If Schofield can't hold up against Lewis-Moore or Tuitt, two linebackers will be enough when one of them is Te'o quality.

Misdirection is called for. Neither of ND's first two Big Ten opponents could use much of that for whatever reason, but Michigan has a big threat wearing 16 and a mad scientist OC who had better damn well have something up his sleeve after two weeks in which the offense was "whatever because it works" and a third in which the offense was "don't get Denard hurt."

Key Matchup: ND ILB versus second level blocks. Must get hat on opponent or Denard goes no places.

[Hit THE JUMP for Hannibal Lecter DE, Brian Kelly cat, and oh God I have to predict something don't I.]

Pass Offense vs Notre Dame

Hannibal Lecter over there is Stephon Tuitt, and he's earned the mask with five sacks in three games. Here he's returning a fumble 77 yards for a touchdown against Navy.

This was a disaster for Michigan State and Purdue. Caleb TerBush and Robert Marve combined to average 5.4 yards an attempt and threw two picks (with two TDs). Andrew Maxwell had a sub-Threet/Sheridan 4.2 YPA. Maxwell wasn't helped out by Michigan State's awful receiving corps, but he needed 100 more yards just to get to mediocre. It was bad. You saw it. You know.

Pressure had a lot to do with both bad days. Maxwell was sacked four times and rocked a half-dozen more, often on three-man rushes. If your quarterback is getting quick pressure when the opposition is dropping eight, you cannot succeed. MSU did not. ND also sacked Purdue QBs four times and chased them out of the pocket on several other plays. ND's pass rush has been absurd, and that's without Aaron Lynch. Those recruiting classes from a couple years ago are coming home to roost now.

This has prevented their secondary from being seriously tested. You know, their secondary featuring a true freshman, redshirt freshman, and sophomore who all switched from offense after a slew of recruiting defections, injuries, and transfers left the Irish secondary a smoking crater.

That's the theory, at least. In practice it hasn't been so bad. ND played a ton of man free coverage (i.e., one deep safety with man to man underneath) and Maxwell basically never had a guy running open farther than five or ten yards downfield—at least not one the TV allowed you to see.

They did have some major issues tackling on Purdue's second touchdown drive…

…and their reliance on man coverage should simplify a lot of Robinson's reads. ND will almost certainly use T'eo to spy Robinson so that they don't give up a ton of easy scramble stuff, which means more man free. Gallon, Gardner, Funchess, and company will have to beat their opponents; Borges will have to exploit the man to man that should be coming, and the line will have to give Michigan time.

Oh, right, and Denard has to keep calm and throw accurately. No big deal.

ND will try to get their front four (or three) to the QB, use Te'o as cleanup, and give their guys simple assignments. Michigan will try to block, read, and rub those guys. Funchess will be huge, as he's going to get those corner and wheel routes against linebackers and rookie former WR safety. But it's really all on Denard. Time to step up.

Key Matchup: Michael Schofield versus Kapron Lewis-Moore, Prince Shembo, Tuitt, whoever. I have to believe Lewan will display his first round NFL bonafides. Schofield is a complete unknown at this point, a guy with potential and a frame but who has not had his feet held to the fire. His ability to keep the pocket clean will be crucial.

Run Defense vs Notre Dame

First, a quick refresher on what happened in the MSU game:

ND was bizarrely pass-focused for much of the game, getting little more than the occasional scramble here and there plus the Atkinson counter draw, and then they clubbed out late field goal drives to salt away the game. The numbers are eh: 4.5 YPC after removing sacks and kneels. This may have been a hangover from the Purdue game, where they couldn't do much against Kawaan Short and Bruce Gaston. They acquired 97 yards on 29 carries.

Michigan does not have Kawaan Short and Bruce Gaston. They're just trying to hold it together at defensive tackle and will be giving big chunks of playing time to two freshman linebackers. They got destroyed versus Alabama, and while ND is not Alabama the extent of the carnage there implied bad things for the rest of the year.

ND was missing feature back Cierre Wood for the first two games; you remember him after he put up 143 on Michigan last year. He is Fitzgerald Toussaint with a little more power, precisely. ND also has slotback/RB Theo Riddick, a slashing runner with good speed, and George Atkinson, who's just a fast guy without a position. Golson also takes the occasional carry.

ND is primarily a zone team. They're not going to blow you off the ball with a 330 pounder—all of their interior guys are around 6'3", around 300 pounds, and just okay when it comes to drive blocking. Washington and Campbell may be able to hold up, maybe even should. They do use a ton of tight ends, which will bring Michigan's dodgy edge run defenders into play. They used quite a bit of a quick speed pitch against Purdue that I guarantee ND will run five times for eight yards a carry. The Air Force game showed that Michigan is vulnerable on the edges, and ND has the speed to get there.

ND's offensive linemen aren't the kind of mashers that will annihilate Michigan no questions asked, but we've yet to find out if there is any competent BCS offensive line that won't blow Michigan up in the middle and make the rest of the defense an exercise in dialing up the right cheat at the right time. Add in the rotating door at ILB and there's a recipe for a 200 yard day for ND on the ground.

The other side of the coin is Washington getting under guys and Black doing okay and Michigan giving up some big chunks here and there but also squeezing out enough long yardage situations to keep it under 150 and put it on Golson's shoulders.

Key Matchup: Washington/Campbell/Pipkins/Black versus the interior ND OL. This needs to be a push at worst, because you know Michigan's getting gashed on the edge quite a bit.

Pass Defense vs Notre Dame

After watching the 2011 game again last night, I suggest we all say a little prayer of thanks that Michael Floyd is finally out the door to the NFL. Jesus. That guy.

Anyway, he's gone and so is Tommy Rees, mostly. Rees is Everett Golson's backup and official guy who gets the last drive of the game for some reason. Away go la fiesta del intercepcionnnnn and el fumblo inexplicablo. They are replaced by Golson checking his first read, then rolling out of the pocket and throwing the ball away. If ND football 2012 had a motto, "safety first" would be it. I took the opportunity presented by the above video to knock out a UFR passing chart for Golson. It looks like this:

(I hemmed and hawed and gave Golson a CA for his insane sack-prevention-into-completion, FWIW.)

So… that's not good. In the world of conventional stats, Golson completed just 14 of 32 passes and just 8 of 23 those past the line of scrimmage. He picked up 129 yards on those 23 attempts, 57 of those were on two different punt-like chucks.

Yes, this has made reading ND message boards an exercise in irony meter explosions as ND fans constantly deride Robinson's arm-punt daggers of a year ago. Not one of them has any idea Denard went 14/17 in a superlative performance against OSU last year, because no Notre Dame fan on the internet has ever watched a game not involving Notre Dame. Thank you for asking.

Golson was much better against Purdue, completing two-thirds of his passes and nearing 10 YPA. A lot of that was ND lining up 6'6" tight end Tyler Eifert as a wide receiver against Purdue's feisty but extremely tiny corners. Golson put up jump balls (first play) that made a little more sense than chucking it up to Jeremy Gallon and Eifert ended the day with four catches for 98 yards, all of them throws on which Eifert skyed over a safety or corner to bring it in.

Golson has not thrown over the middle of the field much. Most of his stuff is long or on the sidelines or behind the line of scrimmage, which hampered Eifert when not lined up wide. He had zero catches against MSU.

TJ Jones == Roy Roundtree, the not that small slot guy, though Jones gets a major edge here.

Robby Toma == Gallon/Dileo, precisely.

Eifert == Funchess, albeit bigger and more proven.

John Goodman == Jeremy Jackson.

Notre Dame has better depth with Theo Riddick available as a threat out of the slot or backfield and a couple additional tight ends, but it's pretty close. Slight edge ND unless Gardner has a breakout game.

ND spreads it around. No receiver has more than nine catches; five have at least six. Eifert is probably the go-to guy on fourth and whatever; Daniels is the preferred deep target.

On the other side of the ball, Michigan lost Blake Countess for the year in the opener and has promoted sophomore Raymon Taylor to starter. This leaves a decent to good rest of the secondary intact… but it's one that very little is known about. Air Force and UMass are useless data points; Alabama spent most of their game grinding out a win. There's a lot less to fear from the ND receivers this year, but it's easy to see Eifert bulling through the secondary after a linebacker sucks up on play action or just gets lost; Daniels is no Floyd but has some deep ability.

Michigan's pass rush doesn't seem promising, but Mattison zone blitzes have the potential to confuse Golson. While a veteran offensive line should pick most of them up, left tackle Zack Martin is just 6'4" and had a lot of trouble with Marcus Rush last week. Ryan and Clark can make hay, and will need to.

Key Matchup: Ryan/Clark versus ND tackles. Michigan needs to win that battle consistently enough to get Golson moving, at which point he usually throw it out of bounds or to a WR who is out of bounds by the time the ball gets there.

Special Teams

New ND kicker Kyle Brindza is 4 of 5 in his brief career to date; he was a highly rated guy out of high school, FWIW. Senior punter Ben Turk is not a Hagerup-like legcannon but has been effective this year. While he's averaging mediocre 41.5 yards per kick, ND's coverage has been excellent with just two returns on 15 punts. They're currently 17th in net punting, which is a massive improvement from last year's 102nd. Early yet, of course.

ND return units have not had an impact so far this year but primary kick returner George Atkinson had two TD returns a year ago and freshman punt guy Davonte Neal seems dangerous even if he hasn't broken anything yet. Atkinson is likely to be neutralized by Wile booming it into the endzone. Neal… well, I put up some stills about this yesterday:

31 yard punt coverage!

I'm concerned this burns Michigan at some point this year.

As for the Wolverines, Gibbons hasn't had many opportunities and so remains a guy you are pretty confident in out to about 45. Hagerup has not shanked one yet this year and has hammered several long ones. Punt coverage is that still above, and kickoff coverage has been basically irrelevant.

Jeremy Gallon has made some bad decisions on punts and has never been a huge playmaker, and in any case no returns against the Irish (and their *cough cough* spread punt formation). Dennis Norfleet may have an impact since ND kickoffs are not going eight yards into the endzone; the Irish gave up a long return against Purdue.

Overall this is a push, with the potential for big plays from freshman Neal and Norfleet waiting to push it decisively to one side or the other.

Key Matchup: COVER THE DAMN PUNTS

Intangibles

I call him Brian Kelly Kat

Cheap Thrills

Worry if...

Schofield is getting beat on the edge. (Panic if it's Lewan.)

Michigan's defensive tackles are getting turned into hamburger.

Borges hasn't figured out a way to get the ground game going against these guys.

Cackle with knowing glee if...

Denard is finding time in the pocket…

…and the ND secondary starts falling apart like it damn well should.

Michigan has the ball needing a touchdown with less than 30 seconds on the clock.

Fear/Paranoia Level: 7 (Baseline 5; +1 for Oh Good Notre Dame Stadium, +1 for And Now They're Saying You Should Stand Up Maybe Sometimes, +1 for What Was That Last Year (Except For That Stuff At The End), –1 for Denard Versus ND Equals Money, –1 for Far Superior QB, +1 for Ugh DL Comparison, –1 for Recent Heart Stabbing Finish Lingers In The Heart Of The Enemy, +1 for Te'o's Revenge)

Desperate need to win level: 10 (Baseline 5; +1 for 2-2 Is Not A Good Record To Have, +1 for ND Nation Mass Suicide Benefits Us All, +1 for Win Means Denard Is Basically The Worst Thing To Ever Happen To ND Other Than Ty Willingham, Charlie Weis, and Bob Davie, +1 for This Is Where We Find Out What We Have And I Would Like What We Have To Be Awesome, –1 for It's Not Like We're Playing For A National Title This Year, +1 for Denard Plus ND Means Holy Crap)

Loss will cause me to... encounter a small child who says "you tried real hard," which only makes the whole thing collapse on itself.

I'm pushing my chips in on Denard being able to throw. I watch Denard, I watch Golson, there's no comparison, because there shouldn't be. Golson is a redshirt freshman. Denard is a senior. They've looked like it so far except for Denard's requisite horrible interception per game. With targets quality enough to beat a makeshift Irish secondary and Lewan protecting his backside, Denard can and will put up an efficient passing day that opens up other stuff. He'll have to because ND's front seven is intimidating, especially when it comes to running on them.

Michigan will get some yards on screen stuff and Denard stuff and some touchdowns bombing it deep; something in the 20s is reasonable.

On the other side of the ball it's about being more like MSU in coverage than Purdue. Golson does not have a lot of patience right now and will play it safe if he has to. Mattison will zone blitz the balls off of him, getting free rushers that lead to sacks or bad decisions or jump balls to Eifert that Eifert is pretty likely to come down with; I don't think he's going to be going over the middle much. Man up on the outside and drop all manner of stuff when you can, get burned like last year on a few 20 yard runs when your NT drops, get blown up a few times because Mike Martin isn't walking through that door, and… something in the 20s is reasonable. FFFUUU. Predictions are stupid.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid Sunday:

We're still wondering if Denard being the whole offense is a good thing after he puts up 80% of Michigan's total yards, completing 60% of his passes with a long one to Funchess or Gardner and throwing a horrible interception, naturally.

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Someone said this in a prediction thread (or maybe a tweet) but this, Michigan trails by a TD and Denard drives us down there and scores the Game-Tier as time expires, and we line up for 2 and score to win it.

I love how every service provider (Comcast, DirecTV, et al) shamelessly abuse Dish every chance they get. Dish is the ugly redheaded stepchild of the family, which their substandard amount of content deservingly warrants.

OLBs cover the slot a lot in NDs offense, so if you send one off the edge to get a 4 man rush, then the other is out in coverage. I saw a lot of the SS picking up the TE, some of the OLB as well. The MLB focus almost completely on the RBs, to the point that they pick up the RB in coverage, and then do kind of a delay attack or a kind of blanket intermediate middle zone, if the RB doesn't release on a route. Young DBs sometimes really stuggle in zone and are just better in man, and against run first teams a lot of teams run a good deal of man, which was the case against MSU and I assume will be against Michigan as well.

They run more cover 1 from what I've seen, and usually bracket the best WR or TE in man free to help out their young players.

I don't see this as a game Michigan desperately needs to win, at least not a 10. I'd say more like a 7. It's ND, so there's that, which makes the game more important than most. But Michigan has won at the last second three years in a row, so it's not like breaking the MSU streak or the OSU streak last year; It's a non-conference game, meaning the goal of winning the B1G (especially after the Bama lose) is still in sight despite the outcome of this game; and a 2-2 record isn't awful, and would likely lead to, at worst, Michigan '07 (which at the time was awful, but looking back now, having the potential to win the B1G when OSU came around, doesn't seem so bad).

If I was playing roulette on the games score differential, I'd put my chips on 4. The wheel is clearly broken and the casino people haven't figured it out yet. Too bad it's not broken on 2007 ND-Michigan game.

I agree. Before the season, I predicted 10-3 with losses to Bama, ND, and one B1G team (probably OSU). Other than it being a rivalry and not making it to a BCS game if we have 3 losses, I don't see any reason in the grand scheme of things that this is more important than Air Force or UMass (level of competition aside). Now, if people think that we can win our next 10 games in a stylish fashion to make it into the NCG, then I guess this is a 10. Without that, though, this game means very little.

Not a knock on Brian. That section is mostly for fun anyway. But after 3 straight we're due, and some people have forgotten how tough and weird it can be down in South Bend. Not saying we can't win. These are the types of games that can take Denard from a great player to an all time great. So I wouldn't be comfortable if I was an ND fan. And I'd love to tack on the 4th in a row as revenge for the late 80's early 90's. But 2-2 isn't so bad the way things shape up. 3-3, then we have problems.

They'll say Notre Dame sucks too. I'd rather not carry the banner in September, and have a ring in December than make the Big Ten look good now and make someone else look better later. The only game that will make the Big Ten look better is going to the Rose Bowl and winning it.

I tend to think the winner will be in the 30s... and I fear it won't be the good guys. Something like 31-23 ND feels right... but I'll never doubt Denard v. the Domers, so let's say 34-31 the fighting Denards.

It's going to be interesting to see how ND aligns their cornerbacks. Last year they had them playing exclusively inside technique, trying to take away the middle of the field, which Denard finally exploited in the 4th quarter with all those throws to the sideline. I'm not sure if their alignment was a philosophical thing or a game planning thing, but I could certainly see the Devins taking advantage of the fade in the same way that, well, every single Michigan receiver did in the 4th quarter last year. Some of Denard's success, and all of his problems, were the result of 50/50 jump balls - the INT aimed at Gallon and a deep pass into double coverage that Hemingway pulled in, and probably Hemingway's TD - but the TDs to Gallon and Roundtree were actually very good throws based on how ND aligned their cornerbacks.

DR#16 may have been taken down a yards after that picture was taken, but that picture capture his speed and style. It is sort of like the Mount Suribachi photo; the image captured the feeling of the moment in a broader way regardless of the actual circumstances. That there are three tacklers closing in and he is trying to angle away really gives palpable shape to the concept of elusiveness. Long after DR#16 has become part of Michigan footbal lore we'll be seeing that picture in our minds when we think of great Michigan ball carriers.

I may be crazy, given the way our offense has operated for over 2 years now, but I think the key to this game will be to pass in order to set up the run. I'm not optimistic about our chances of getting many rushing yards (from Denard OR Fitz) if we aren't a threat through the air.

Loosen them up with some downfield shots to the Devins and then tear them up with Denard's legs. That is the path to victory.

The aspect of this game that really worries me, and will continue to for much of the season, is that Michigan has performed very poorly on offense relative to its normal production when the offensive line matches up poorly against the opponent's front seven. MSU and Va Tech last season, Alabama this year... and Notre Dame has a terrific front seven that has throttled everybody.

An offense's best weapon against this is a precision short-passing game, and that is the weakest part of Denard's game. Now, he has improved it, but his strengths are in other areas. Can he win the game playing this kind of game? I don't know.

Without an unexpectedly good performance by the offensive line, I'm having trouble seeing Michigan win this game, especially on the road. This looks like the MSU game from last year to me.

My grandpa hated ND and never forgave them for developing 8th year seniors, amongst other things. It's funny how that has stuck with them, though, eh Kapron?

Hoping that we're less of a run first team this Saturday. We were about even pass/run against Bama, but then we went 25/31 against Air Force, and ran the clock out for roughly an entire half against UMass going 25/43. It'll be a switch to see if we play pass-first against ND, but it should be a nice switch, especially if we're passing on 2 converted WRs and a converted RB. Denards been pressured before, and has taken his fair share of hits. He should be as comfortable as one can be against their front.

You seem like a pessimist Dave, so I am not surprised that you have a "shitty feeling" about this game. I don't recall reading very many positive comments that you've posted. Maybe I am wrong, and if I am, please forgive me.

Denard is going to show the world that he's developed into a passer that can run, and will no longer be a regarded as a runner that can pass a little bit.

the difference in the game is Denard having his usual one big WTF mistake and him having a second big WTF mistake, as i think this will be a relatively low scoring affair and giving the ball away to give ND a short field is a big deal. if he only makes the one, i think michigan can hang in there.

unfortunately, i think michigan has some karma to pay back for their success last year, and i think a lot of that is compounded karma due the irish, who look like a methodical, physical team this year. i would rather pay that karma this year than carry it over, so...