A blog about lovely Waterlooville, a small, environmentally damaged town in Hampshire, UK. Waterlooville was founded after the Battle of Waterloo in 1815, as troops from that conflict returned home and passed through Hampshire. Having grown from a small village to a suburban sprawl, Waterlooville faces serious environmental challenges today and in the future.

Thursday, June 18

Most people are aware that the number of people in the UK is increasing every year right? And of course the population of Havant Borough is increasing.

Well no, it isn't. According to Havant Borough Council, the boroughs population has dropped by about 3,000 people since 1996. The prediction is that by 2011 the population will have fallen to 116,289, a total drop of 3,480.

Is this the full story??
Absolutely not. That figure of 3,480 is not actually the true reduction, what it doesn't take into account is the fact that the population should be growing! The reason for a growth in population is partly due to the number of births per year being greater than the number of deaths, but also due to immigration.

So how much bigger should the population really be?
Well government statistics for the population in the South East are 7,817,000 (2011) and 7,800,000 (1996). This gives a growth rate of 1.13/1000 per annum (maths time! ... (7817 - 7800)/15= 1.13) which is a similar figure to the national/regional growth rates over the same 15 year period.

So lets use this growth rate to predict where the Havant Borough population should be.
We have to start at 1996 and calculate the growth over 15 years given the 1.13 growth figure. The easiest way to do that is to used a compound interest calculator, commonly used to calculate interest on savings in a bank (the 'interest' rate will be 0.113%). It won't give a precise figure, but it will be close enough.
Using such a method you get a population figure of 121,760 for 2011. Now compare that with Havant Borough Councils predictions for 2011 which is 116,289. This gives a 'real' population difference (reduction) of 5,471.

But that isn't the end of it. The reduction of 3,480 in population that is in the councils figures, includes the growth caused by births/deaths. So in reality the number of people that have left the borough is much greater than just 3,480!

What does all this mean?
Well a lot of homes are being left empty, or are being used for temporary accommodation, investment, second homes etc.
Secondly, it puts into question why we need 3,000 extra homes in Waterlooville. HBC reckon we need more because people will be living on their own or as single parents.
Does every single person really need their own place?
What about the population reduction freeing up homes?
What about homes being built on smaller plots?

What about the council and central government wanting to encourage population growth to keep their 'machine' going despite the environmental cost to us all?
Hence the creation of homes, support for business etc. to fund tax revenues and keep the machine going.

I am of course in favour of a continued population reduction and do not advocate population growth to maintain pensions, businesses, tax revenue etc.

Summary:

Population reduction HBC predict between 1996 and 2011: 3,480
Population growth that should happen between 1996 and 2011 given some encouragement: 5,471

Update 15/06/13: Unfortunately the links to the data at HBC and ONS are now dead. HBC currently no longer show population statistics on their (our) web site, the reasons could be due to politics, management issues or technology. However Hampshire County Council still have similar data available for Havant Borough.

Friday, June 12

Havant Borough Council are starting a consultation for six weeks on their Core Strategy and Draft Residential Parking and Cycle Provision. It starts today and details are at Waterlooville library and HBC offices in Havant.

Friday, June 5

Just finished watching Yann Arthus-Bertrand’s 'Home' which was released today on YouTube and shown on Sky Movies.

The narrator (Isabelle Delannoy?) along with the music make the film compelling to watch, and the imagery is stunning. The movie is about planet Earth and its development from a lifeless planet until today.

The one issue that is disappointing is the list of sponsors and funders, many of which are probably contributing to the problems that the film portrays. Despite this flaw, it is still a film that must be watched and you can do it here.

Wednesday, June 3

This is one of the better things that is happening around Waterlooville these days. Organised by the good folk at St Georges church, the Waterlooville Music Festival is becoming a significant event of the yearly calender. This year it is in its 4th season and some bands, musicians etc. are now seeing it as an event that they must perform at.

The great thing about the festival is some of the events are free, including music on the streets. I remember last year on one of the festival days, there were brass bands where ever you went in Waterlooville.

I can recommend The Band of the Hampshire Constabulary this year, they produce some good 'sounds'.
It's not all brass bands though! Last year I sat in on a free lunch time performance by an East European pianist.