This morning I mentioned that we seem to do very well on Mondays.
Now I know that the horse doesn't know which day of the week it is...
Or do they? Is the atmosphere in the yard different on a Sunday? Do the horses pick up on that?
However, one could always ask the question: is it the horse that wins the race or is it the Trainer and Jockey?
Anyway, I have done some basic analysis to see how Mondays have treated us.
I have used data from the 8th of July 2013 up until yesterday (20th of March 2017) - that gives us a good 44 months of data which is a decent point for analysis.
I have only used the top rated horse in each race.
The prices used are BSP with a 5% commission deducted.

There are no selections for the Recent Race Strategy today.
The link didn't work but it should be there for tomorrow.
So far (since the 10th Feb 2017) we have had one selection which won at a massive 1.13 BSP.
Taking commission into account, we are running at...
Races = 1
Wins = 1
SR = 100%
POI = 7.35%
As always...
My kindest regards

The script to produce the Recent Race Results PDF seems to have worked and...
I have spent the last half hour auditing it.
All looks OK.
From the top three ranked race types there are only three qualifying races.
Two of those fail on either the confidence level (needs to be 120% or greater) or the RC1 value (needs to be 80% or greater.)
This just leaves one race.
Rather than send you the PDF I have done a screenshot of it...
If you can't see the image properly, the selection is...
Kempton 16:15 - Politologue - National Hunt Chase - Graduation Chase - LTO = 20 days and over the last 28 days we have had a 50% strike rate with non-handicap Graduation Chases. The rprank is 1 - this means that, of all races types today, over the last 28 days Graduation Chases (non-handicap) have been the best performing.
From tomorrow, there will be a link to the PDF on the morning ratings email.
There should also be a report on the Morning News to show how the selection(s) got on.
As always...
My kindest regards

I am now ready to start moving forward and define a new strategy based upon the performance of the different race types over the last 28 days.
I have created a spreadsheet and would like to walk you through the process that I shall use to identify a profitable strategy.
The spreadsheet is available at Recent Results Strategy and...
Just to tantalise you (or convince you to read this boring post),
Here are some interesting numbers...

Hello again...
I have been doing some more work on the idea that I had about looking at the recent performance (over the last 28 days) of different race types. The original post may be seen here.
I did a basic chart based on the recent results by race type ranking.
I have only used data for 2016.
Now, I'll try to explain this...
Recent Results by Race Type.
For every race type in today's races (and, by race type I mean a combination of Race Type 1, Race Type Two and Handicap - thus a NH Hurdle Novice non Handicap is a different race type to a NH Hurdle Novice Handicap) I check the results of that race type ( for the top rated horse) over the last 28 days.
This gives me a strike rate.
I then list the race types and strike rates in descending order of strike rate.
The race type with the highest strike rate (over the last 28 days) gets rank 1. The race type with the next highest strike rate gets rank 2 and so on.
Now, bear in mind that we had an average strike rate for all race types (over the entire year 2016) of 25.42%
If we restrict ourselves to those races which are ranked 1 to 3 in terms of their performance over the last 28 days (only taking into account those race types that are running today) we increase our strike rate to 35.28%

Hello again...
I am continuing with the idea that I had about looking at the recent performance (over the last 28 days) of different race types. The original post may be seen here.
I am still trying to get a feel for this and, until I manage to get the historical data ready for analysis I'll just muddle on this way.
I suppose that my intention is to reduce the number of races that we need to focus on every day. This seems to be a logical way of doing so.
Today's selections are...

Now, there is something that I've been thinking about for quite a while now and...
I have been playing with for the last few days.
I haven't come up with any firm conclusions yet and so, I thought that I'd hand it over to you to see if it makes any sense to you.
It's a bit hard to explain but I'll do my best.
Results by race type...
As you know, on the sidebar of the site there is a link to a spreadsheet showing Results by Race Type. This is updated every night. The information is also shown on the normal ratings (and most other formats as well.)
However, this data comes from a three and a half year period and, although accurate I am starting to get the feeling that they might not be entirely appropriate.