2014 Edmonton Oilers prospects: #24 Tyler Vesel

Tyler Vesel is a virtual unknown, but that doesn’t make him a bad pick.

One of the interesting side effects of the NHL evolving into a year-round business, one that allows for greater amounts of fan devotion than ever before, has been the emergence of draft experts. ESPN’s Corey Pronman, TSN’s Craig Button, and specific scouting outlets like Red Line Report get more notice than ever before. The wealth of available information can really help illuminate names that we would otherwise not know much about.

The flip side of that is that there’s a tendency to assume that if a team picks someone that those various sources don’t mention much before the draft, it’s a wasted pick. That’s unfortunate, as the one thing all of those people have in common is that they don’t have the money to spend on scouting that NHL teams do, and so betting against the major league club isn’t necessarily a smart thing to do.

Granted, it would be easier to bet on a team other than Edmonton, which makes a habit of mystifying picks and has a less than stellar recent history. But in the case of Vesel, there are some interesting points.

The USHL, where Vesel played last season, is an up-and-coming league, but it’s also one where it’s fairly evident there’s still value to be found. Consider a few examples:

– A 5’11”, 190 pound forward. Always a long-shot prospect, he wasn’t drafted in his first year of eligibility, scored well in the USHL in his second year (and was a late draft pick as a result) and then regressed the following season.

– A 5’10”, 185 pound forward. Undrafted, he didn’t make it to the USHL until he was already 20 years old, at which point he scored at just over a point-per-game pace. One mediocre season at an old age didn’t impress NHL teams.

– A 5’10”, 180 pound forward. He wasn’t impressive at age 19 in the USHL, scoring a bit but not posting great numbers, and then at age 20 he broke out with 82 points in 58 games. He was never drafted.

– A 5’11”, 180 pound forward. A late-bloomer, he didn’t make the jump to the USHL until his 19-year-old season, at which point he posted an impressive 71 points in 49 games played, which was enough to get him drafted late by an NHL team.

In order, the four examples cited above are Joe Pavelski of the San Jose Sharks, Matt Read of the Philadelphia Flyers, Andrew Miller of the Oklahoma City Barons and finally Vesel. Two weren’t drafted, two were picked late as overagers, and going solely off size and scoring numbers at the same age they’re virtually indistinguishable. In hindsight, the first three all would have been selected much earlier, and of course it’s too soon to tell on Vesel.

(Three other interesting names who popped up in a quick glance at the USHL leaderboard over the last decade. David Backes, Teddy Purcell and Craig Smith were all passed over at least once in the NHL draft, and all have used the USHL as a springboard to fine careers. They weren’t listed above because of the size gap between them and Vesel.)

Naturally, not every player who hits 70 points in the USHL goes on to have an NHL career; the league has its share of AHL’ers, European stars, ECHL’ers and guys who never even made it that far.

The point here, however, is that unlike some of the Oilers’ other overage picks we can’t simply look at Vesel’s numbers and say ‘it would be a miracle if he turned out to be anything.’ Players with extremely similar profiles have gone on to have success before, and a sixth-round pick isn’t a heavy price to pay.

Vesel is bound for the University of Nebraska-Omaha, where he’ll be coached by the highly respected Dean Blais. He’s already proven that he can score, and with as many as four years of college to round out his game the Oilers can be reasonably confident that when he makes the jump to the professional ranks he’ll be able to contribute in multiple ways (though given that he scored two shorthanded markers in 2013-14, there are perhaps already signs of that).

Expectations for 2014-15: Because Vesel really only has one strong season under his belt, it’s important that he have some sustain. That means significant minutes and scoring totals at the college level; something in the range of 0.75 points per game or better.

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