Astros’ rotation: Who’s in and who’s out for 2013?

A few more weeks, then a long winter for the Astros. Something tells me the off season will be filled with plenty of activity and sufficient fodder for blogs, radio shows and water cooler discussions.

We’ll make our way around the entire roster, but let’s get started with a meaty discussion about the rotation: Who’s in, who’s out and what can Jeff Luhnow count on for 2013?

Eleven different pitchers have started games for the Astros this season and the team is finishing the year with a six-man rotation. Not exactly vintage 2004-2005 Astros and it doesn’t provide a lot of hope for 2013. But as we pointed out earlier in the week, there are small victories, silver linings and glimmers of hope. The Astros will have plenty of budget to spend and Luhnow is likely to spend some of those dollars to shore up the rotation.

Trade Candidates.

Bud Norris. He’s the new Wandy. Marvelous talent. Tremendous upside. Frustratingly inconsistent from game to game. With three and a half years in the majors — 94 starts — Norris has had plenty of opportunities to make his mark and state his case. Yes, he’s played on poor teams, but good pitchers on bad teams often create some good runs. The former sixth-round draft choice (2006) has averaged 8.8 Ks over this four years in Houston, but his 3.8 BB/9 helps to push the WHIP to 1.416. You can argue he had a solid 2011 and has pitched hurt some this year and you’d be right. But for a young rotation looking for a leader, he’s not been the go-to guy. Norris will be 28 on opening day and here’s a hunch he’ll be pitching in another uniform by then. And, remember, he’s arbitration eligible for the first time this winter. Is he worth $2 million+?

Bring ’em back.

Lucas Harrell. Probably the only current starter who has a ticket in hand for the ’13 rotation. For a pitcher who began the season as the fifth starter on a team headed for 100 losses, Harrell has been nothing short of impressive. At 10-9, he’s pitched six or more innings 15 times on his way to 171 1/3 IP and a 3.83 ERA. Obviously, he’s not an ace, but he’s a solid starter who’s earned a spot for 2013.

Jordan Lyles. Yeah, I know you’ll shout me down right here, but Lyles has actually shown more promise of late. To be sure, Lyles may at least in part be a product of an unsteady push through the system. Remember, the former first rounder turns 22 only next month. After 36 major league starts, there’s plenty of reason to scratch your head or raise your eyebrows, but he has the poise and seems to have the mental toughness to continue progress with what will likely be another pitching coach. He’s back in the 2013 rotation.

Wild Cards.

Dallas Keuchel. He’s not going to blow anyone away and he’s going to get blown away from time to time when his finesse isn’t good enough. He was my darkhorse sleeper pick in spring training and he could still claim a spot in the rotation at some point. But he’ll need to improve the K/BB ratio and pick up some of that Mike Hampton bulldogedness to stave off the soon coming of pitchers like Jarred Cosart, Rudy Owens or others. He’ll be in spring training with lots to prove.

Kyle Weiland. Remember him? He earned a spot in the rotation out of spring training, but hasn’t pitched since early in the year. He was part of the Mark Melancon trade, but may be a project.

Sayonara!

Edgar Gonzalez. He’s been a successful minor leaguer, but has never put it together in the majors with Arizona, Oakland or Colorado. He’s had two good starts in Houston, but the soon-to-be 30-year-old will need to finish the season strong if he hopes to get an invite to spring training. Ultimately will follow Armando Galarraga.

Fernando Abad. He’ll probably still be on the roster next spring if only because he’s under team control. And a lefty. But not sure this starter experiment is working.

Yes, folks, that’s about it. Oh sure, there’ll be other names in the mix in the spring and you may hear names like Cosart, Wojciechowski, Owens, Oberholtzer or even Clemens (as in Paul, not Roger). But you also can expect the Astros to try to catch lightning in a bottle (a la Galarraga and Gonzalez) and seek out a decently priced free agent or two to further bridge the gap.