Woodbine Early Pick 4 Analysis

by Al Cimaglia

February 24, 2018

The Saturday feature at Woodbine rolls in race 5, a Preferred Handicap Pace with a $34,000 purse. The night begins with a 0.20 Pick 5 sequence which has a $50,000 guaranteed pool. The 0.20 Early Pick 4 which also has a $50,000 guaranteed pool starts in Race 4 and will be my focus.

Last night at Woodbine drivers Louis Roy, Bob McClure, Trevor Henry and Sylvain Filion each had two trips to the winner's circle. On a track rated "good" conditioner Richard Moreau led all trainers with two pictures. In general, it was a very chalky night as seven of ten winners paid $5.00 or less.

On Friday at Cal Expo my posted Pick 4 ticket failed in the opening and closing legs. The #9-Lumberjack Willie, who I mentioned in comments but did not select because of his outside post won and paid $8.00. Willie drifted out down the stretch and raced wide, but still was able to hang on. In the last leg #2-Lilbitofmama, who was not chosen by his regular pilot, set a lifetime mark and paid a handsome $20.80. The (9-6-2-3) combination returned $433.40 for a 0.20 wager.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 4

3 - Rubis Prescott - Gets a good post draw at a level for success, should be in the hunt at a square price.

4 - Artistic Madison - Even efforts recently but like #3 drops out of Opens and should like the company.

5 - Exhilarated - Steps up but winner of two straight is sharp and best to respect once again.

9 - Teachers Vet - Could battle #5 for the lead, has gate speed and was McNair's choice, connections are hot.

Race 5

7 - Nirvana Seelster - Placed behind #8 in last but missed a start. Usually in the hunt and could be better tonight.

8 - The Rev - Looking for 4th in a row and 2nd straight at this class. Post could be an issue but is sharp as a tack.

9 - American Virgin - 2nd start back off a 20-day break. Fits with this bunch if McNair can work a trip.

Race 6

3 - Audreys Dream - Not loving the 7/2 ML but at this level and with an inside starting slot should be in the mix.

4 - Cool Rock - Takes a significant drop in third start off the bench. Could be sitting on a big try.

7 - Bugatti - 2nd start since claim, tuned up at Flmd after 20 days off and could be dialed on high tonight.

Race 7

2 - Fan Court - Has missed a start but fits well and from this post, it's wise to respect chances.

3 - Traceur Hanover - Roy's choice drops out of Preferred ranks and appears to be a major player.

6 - Classy Dragon - Winner of 3 of last 5 and 1 loss due to a break. Looks like a great post draw for his stalking style.

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11.5.2017

Courtesy Breeders' Cup Notes Team
Winning trainer Steve Asmussen (Gun Runner) – “It’s a good team and he’s an incredible horse. Incredible horse. Everyone is part of the team and they did a phenomenal job. Scott (Blasi, assistant trainer), Angel (Garcia, exercise rider), Florent (Geroux, jockey), the owners... we did the right things at the right time and all that made it special. What an awesome feeling this is. Florent has the ultimate confidence in Gun Runner and he rode Gun Runner. It’s all part of the process. We had discussed what we’d see (in the race) through the day and I told him to ‘ride Gun Runner.’ I’m the lucky trainer of the Horse of the Year.”
Winning jockey Florent Geroux (Gun Runner) – “This (win) means a lot. It’s the biggest win of my career. It’s the big race with Horse of the Year on the line. I’m glad he was the best horse.
Were you surprised you were in front? “No, not really. I think he was the quickest horse in the race from the beginning of the race.\
“(Trainer) Steve (Asmussen) was the one who gave me the opportunity to ride this horse. We knew from the beginning he was the real deal. We were so confident going into the Kentucky Derby; we really thought it was his best chance ever to win it.”
(Collected was pressing Gun Runner) “It wasn’t like my horse was going crazy and would lose his chance. I really like (Collected) and I respect him a lot. He was the horse for the course for sure. He showed it today. He was just second best; my horse was the best horse today.”
Bob Baffert (Second with Collected, third with West Coast, fifth with favorite Arrogate and eight with Mubtaahij) – “My horses ran well. Arrogate...I don’t know. He just can’t find the plate. He’s like a pitcher who can’t find the plate. Gun Runner is a really good horse and he ran a great race. My other horses ran great. I hate to make any excuses for the big horse (Arrogate), but he’s just not the horse he was. He struggles over this track, but when I got him up to Santa Anita, I thought maybe...When he broke, he broke flat-footed and broke in and he weaved in. He lost a lot of momentum there. We were hoping to really send him away from there. I don’t know what happened to him. I don’t know if it’s this track or what. He’s just losing interest and I think that’s what it is. He’s run so many incredible races that I really think he’s just losing interest. That’s what it is. It’s time (for him to retire).
“But he has done so much. What he accomplished in a short period of time, the Travers win (in track and stakes record time), beating California Chrome (in the 2016 Classic), winning the Pegasus and the way he won in Dubai. You have to give Gun Runner credit. He laid it down and he took a lot of heat. Collected is a really good horse. We know how good he is.
“West Coast ran really well. He’s a horse that wants to be forwardly placed. It looks like they were just marching around there. They just sort of didn’t change positions. They just stayed the same all the way around there.”
Second-place jockey Martin Garcia (Collected) – “He ran great. I can’t be sure, of course, but I think if our positions were switched – if I was inside (Gun Runner) and he was out – we might have had a different finish. I wanted to get to the rail and save ground, but I couldn’t. I’m proud of him, though. He gave me what he had.”
Third-place jockey Javier Castellano (West Coast) – “I thought I was in good position on the far turn, but I just could not catch the top two. I have no complaints. He ran his heart out today.”
Fourth-place trainer Jorge Navarro (War Story) – “What can I say? I’m very happy. The jockey (Jose Ortiz) listened to me and rode a great race. Fourth with a 60-1 shot in this race? Very happy."
Fourth-place jockey Jose Ortiz (War Story) – "I just followed the instructions Jorge [Navarro]. He told me he doesn’t like horses outside of him. On the first turn, he was traveling well and I was able to put him where Jorge wanted him. He ran a good race."
Dead-heat fifth-place jockey Mike Smith (Arrogate) – “He just doesn’t like this track. For whatever reason, I hate to say it, he has shown it time and time again and showed it today. (His bad start) is what he’s been doing every time he runs here. When he’s on his A race, he’s one of the fastest horses we have ever seen. He just won’t run over here. I have tried to talk myself into thinking he would. He has just showed me time and time again that he wouldn’t.
(On the bad start) “That’s just what he does over this racetrack. I don’t know what it is. Every time I ride him here, he never seems to get underneath himself.”
Dead-heat fifth-place trainer Antonio Sano (Gunnevera) – “We ran against good horses but my horse ran good. I’m happy. It’s a tough race but he was very good.”
Dead-heat fifth-place jockey Edgard Zayas (Gunnevera) – "I think he had a good trip. It was a very tough race. It seemed like the beginning of the day the horses off the pace were running, but as the day went on the speed was holding. They came out of the gate and kept on running. He ran his race. He just couldn’t get there."
Trainer Aidan O’Brien (Churchill, sixth and War Decree, ninth) – “Churchill has had two or three hard races. We will go back to the turf with him next time. He seems OK after the race and appears relaxed.”
Sixth-place jockey Ryan Moore (Churchill) – He was going ok, I tried to give him a chance down the backstretch, but he didn’t seem to handle it.”
Eighth-place jockey Drayden Van Dyke (Mubtaahij) – “I had a perfect trip. I was right behind the leaders and it was good. But then those front two (Gun Runner and Collected) took off and we just couldn’t catch them.”
Ninth-place jockey Seamus Heffernan (War Decree) – “He didn’t handle the surface.”
Tenth-place jockey Mario Gutierrez (Pavel) – “I liked my position early. I was where I wanted to be. But it just wasn’t there at the end.”
Tenth-place trainer Doug O’Neill (Pavel) – “He appeared to come back healthy. We’ll go over him good when we get him back to the barn. (Jockey) Mario (Gutierrez) said he might have bled. I loved his position for a while, but he didn’t maintain that.”
Eleventh-place Trainer George Papaprodromou (Win the Space) – “He never looked comfortable to me. Joe said the same thing. He just never got hold of the track. I guess Santa Anita is best for him.”