THE 2000 CAMPAIGN: THE SENATE; DEMOCRATS HAVE OUTSIDE CHANCE TO WREST SENATE

Democrats are likely to pick up at least a seat or two in the Senate in next month's elections and have an outside chance of winning a narrow majority.

Seven Republican senators are, to a greater or lesser extent, in danger of being ousted, and one Democratic senator is in trouble.

That is the consensus of impartial election handicappers, and it is not seriously disputed by the senators and staff members most closely following their parties' Senate campaigns.

Whichever party ends up in control, the prospects are that its majority in the Senate will be the narrowest in more than 40 years. The small majority could make the passage of major legislation in areas like Social Security, taxes and health care even more problematic.

It is conceivable, the experts agree, that there will be a 50-50 split, in which case the next vice president could cast the tie-breaking vote determining which party runs the committees and sets the agenda. The only other time the Senate was evenly divided was in 1881 and 1882, and the consequence, wrote Richard A. Baker, the Senate historian, was ''organizational chaos.''

Senator Joseph I. Lieberman has complicated the Democrats' position this year by insisting on running for re-election in Connecticut, where he is almost certain to win, at the same time he is the Democratic candidate for vice president.

The Republican senators who are in trouble are William V. Roth Jr. of Delaware, Spencer Abraham of Michigan, Rod Grams of Minnesota, John Ashcroft of Missouri, Conrad Burns of Montana, Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island and Slade Gorton of Washington. The Democrat is Charles S. Robb of Virginia.

Republicans take a 54-to-46-seat advantage into the election. That means that if the Democrats gain four, there will be a 50-50 tie when the Senate convenes in January.

But if Vice President Al Gore is elected president and Mr. Lieberman vice president, he will resign from the Senate, and Gov. John G. Rowland, a Republican, will doubtless appoint a Republican to hold the Connecticut Senate seat until the 2002 election. And if Mr. Lieberman does not become vice president and remains in the Senate, then there will be a Republican vice president, Dick Cheney, to cast the tie-breaking vote if the Senate is evenly divided.

In either case, Democrats would have to pick up five seats in the elections to have the majority. Or Mr. Lieberman could, as many of his colleagues hope, change his mind and pull out of the Senate race. Under Connecticut law, he can do that until Oct. 27.

If he does withdraw, then the likelihood is that the state's popular attorney general, Richard Blumenthal, would become the Democratic candidate and win the seat, even with only a short time to campaign. If that happens and the Democrats win the White House, then a four-seat gain by Democrats in the Senate would be sufficient for a majority.

''I think the Democrats have, maybe, a 20 percent chance of taking over the Senate,'' said Stuart Rothenberg, who publishes a nonpartisan newsletter tracking the Senate races across the country. ''I can see them picking up two or three seats. Four is hard. Five is really, really hard.''

Charles E. Cook Jr., editor of another nonpartisan political report, agrees with that assessment. He also raised a delicate point that is often discussed in political circles but almost never mentioned publicly.

Senator Strom Thurmond of South Carolina is 97 and in poor health. The governor of South Carolina, Jim Hodges, is a Democrat and would surely appoint a Democrat if the seat became vacant.

Seven other senators are also older than 75, and all come from states where the governor now is Democratic or a Democrat is likely to be elected in November. So it is possible that the partisan balance in the Senate could be upset in midyear.

With that as a background, this is the math:

*66 senators -- 35 Republicans and 31 Democrats -- are not up for re-election this year.

*34 seats are at stake, 19 now held by Republicans and 15 now held by Democrats.

*21 incumbents -- 11 Republicans and 10 Democrats -- are expected to be re-elected easily. These are called safe seats.

*That leaves 13 seats in play, 8 now held by Republicans and 5 by Democrats, and the outcome of these races will decide which party controls the Senate.

Republicans are likely to win one of the seats now held by a Democrat -- the Nevada seat of Senator Richard H. Bryan, who is retiring. Former Representative John Ensign seems to be pulling away from the Democratic candidate, Ed Bernstein, a trial lawyer.

And Senator Chafee is a slight favorite to hold his seat against the Democratic challenger, Representative Bob Weygand. Mr. Chafee has never run statewide. But he was appointed to the Senate last year after his popular father, Senator John H. Chafee, died, and his name alone may lead to his election.

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Democrats seem to be leading in Florida, Minnesota, Nebraska and New Jersey. If they win in those states, they will need six of the other seven close contests. Here is a quick look at those seven, where the experts say the races are so tight that the outcome will hinge on what happens between now and Election Day.

DELAWARE This is one of two states where a Democratic governor is challenging a Republican senator, meaning that candidates who have been successful getting elected to high office statewide are running against each other. In Delaware, the main issue may be the candidates' age. Senator Roth, 79, is chairman of the Finance Committee, one of the most influential committees in Congress, and is running for his sixth term. Gov. Thomas R. Carper, a former congressman, is 53.

MICHIGAN -- Senator Abraham took a substantial lead during the summer largely on the basis of heavy television advertising. But in the last few weeks, his Democratic challenger, Representative Debbie Stabenow, who is not as well financed, has been running her own commercials and has begun to catch up. The odds still favor Mr. Abraham, but not by much.

MISSOURI -- This is the other state where a Republican senator is being challenged by the governor. Senator Ashcroft is among the most conservative senators. Gov. Mel Carnahan is a mainstream Democrat. The race, dead even in the polls all year, has become increasingly bitter. It could go either way.

MONTANA -- Brian Schweitzer, a rancher who has never held public office, could be this year's successful dark horse. Mr. Cook, the political-report editor, calls him ''one of the best first-time candidates I've ever seen.'' Starting from scratch, Mr. Schweitzer, a Democrat, has run an aggressive campaign focusing on the high cost of prescription drugs. Senator Burns was slow off the mark, apparently overconfident. Still, if Mr. Schweitzer wins, it will be an upset.

NEW YORK -- The race between Hillary Rodham Clinton and Representative Rick A. Lazio to succeed Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan, a Democrat, is the most visible and probably the most expensive Senate race in the country. Democrats say Mrs. Clinton is ahead. Republicans say the anti-Clinton vote will prevail in the end and lead to a Lazio victory. Neither side is confident in that analysis.

VIRGINIA -- At this point, Senator Robb is probably slightly behind his Republican challenger, former Gov. George Allen. Mr. Robb has a reputation for starting slowly and moving out in the homestretch. Whether he can pull off that feat this time is a matter of some doubt.

WASHINGTON -- Former Representative Maria Cantwell, a Democrat, made a fortune in the computer industry and is spending large sums of her own money to oust Senator Gorton. Neither candidate, as Mr. Cook wrote, ''is particularly warm and fuzzy.''

It is hard to figure whether he really believes that or is trying to turn the screws on Mr. Lieberman to give up his Senate race or both.

On the question of whether the Democrats could win a majority, Mr. Torricelli's political director, James M. Jordan, said: ''Is it easy? No. Can I see how it's done? Absolutely.''

Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, would not predict the outcome on Nov. 7, but he said, ''Any time you've got a ton of tough races, you've got a whole lot of variables, but we'd have to have an awful lot of bad luck to lose the Senate.''

Several factors make this year's Senate races unusual and make predictions of the outcome more difficult.

One is the length of this Congressional session. Adjournment is unlikely before Oct. 20 or 21, only a little more than two weeks before Election Day. The seven Republican senators facing stiff challenges have been stuck in Washington, unable to campaign much during the week because the Senate has been in session. Mr. Robb, the only Democrat in this position, lives so close to the Capitol that he can campaign even when the Senate is meeting.

Another oddity is that three Democratic candidates in tight races -- Mark Dayton in Minnesota, Jon Corzine in New Jersey and Ms. Cantwell in Washington -- are so wealthy that they can pay for expensive campaigns out of their own pockets. This could be important because it allows Democrats to concentrate their resources in other states.

Then, there is the fact that Republican senators first elected in their party's sweep in 1994 are running for re-election for the first time. This helps explain why so many Republican senators and so few Democrats are in close races.

If the experts are right, the party split in the Senate in the 107th Congress could be the narrowest since the 85th, in 1957 and 1958, when there were only 48 states. Democrats had 49 seats and Republicans 47.

In the Senate nowadays, little of importance can be accomplished without bipartisan negotiations, regardless of which party is in control. That is because the filibuster has become routine on issues big and small, and 60 votes are needed to bring a matter to a vote.

''No one has control of the Senate now,'' Mr. McConnell said. ''As for public policy, I don't think it makes much difference whether the majority is 51 or 52 or 54.''