“… I personally collected the results of the election on 29th July 2018 from 82 polling stations in 6 schools in Phnom Penh. I simply used my phone to take snapshots of the result Form 1102 that was displayed on the outside polling station.”

Centre for Policy Studies Director Chan Sophal, 1 August 2018, Campro

“In my opinion based on this evidence, other anecdotes, I don't think there was cheating or cooking in this election.”

Centre for Policy Studies Director Chan Sophal, 1 August 2018, Campro

“It is important to bear in mind that the sample is not a representative one for Phnom Penh or Cambodia, but it is a large enough number of polling stations (82) in 6 schools, which can tell some meaningful statistics, I believe.”

Centre for Policy Studies Director Chan Sophal, 1 August 2018, Campro

“The key finding is that the result of this sample is not too different from the preliminary result published by NEC in terms of voter turnout rate (74% from the sample), invalid votes (15% from the sample), and the votes for CPP and other small parties.”

Centre for Policy Studies Director Chan Sophal, 1 August 2018, Campro

“This finding suggests to me that if any cheating or cooking it would not have happened at the level above the polling stations. There would be no need to cheat and change such already good results at the polling stations. So if any cheating, it would have happened at the polling stations, which I think is very very difficult to do.”

In his scientific quest for the truth, the director who makes a living out of research work conducts a simple data collection. His sample size is 3.8% of all the 2,138 polling stations in Phnom Penh. He sprinkles over his research numbers “other anecdotes” though he does not specify the nature and extent of these additives. And then Voilà, Hun Sen does not cheat in Phnom Penh, and by the power of his statistical inference, anywhere. To justify this conclusion, he claims on CPP’s behalf that they do not need to cheat since they have done “tremendous work in both reforms and in pleasing their local constituencies”.

The director admits his sampling is not random. Any research professionals worth their salt know random sampling is a prerequisite for any statistically reliable and valid outcomes. He believes his sample size is large enough for “some meaningful statistics”. He does not say, however, if he calculates a confidence interval and level for his outcomes validity and reliability.

It is rather amusing the director seems excited to discover that his numbers and calculations are “not too different” from those of the NEC. He copies source numbers straight from the NEC’s published Form 1102; how could there be any material variance beyond calculation errors?

The director also believes – to support his conclusion that there is no cheating – any cheating at the poll stations will be “very very difficult to do”. No, it is not.

Here are some factors for the director who often claims to be logical to ponder if cheating is so difficult at poll stations. At every station in Phnom Penh, there are two CPP party agents making up a total of 72.6% of all party agents. Thirteen competing parties have none; six have a handful; they say they rely on the NEC’s integrity for a clean process; many are somewhat under CPP’s control or influence. All election officials are recruited by the NEC whose executive members are either CPP members or beneficiaries of a CPP patronage. Hence, a logical question is: are these minions stupid enough to deprive Hun Sen of what he wants – a high turnout that gives legitimacy of his next government? Indeed, it is inevitable they cheat; and it is up to them to sell it.

It remains unclear though why the director bastardises his sampling work. He may not have enough grasp of the technique complexity, or he just plays some 600 professionals on Campro network for a fool. Either way, the director clearly uses statistics like a drunk using a lamp post – for support rather than illumination.

It is hard to say whether the Campro professionals buy the director’s research method and conclusion. Most have held their cards close to their chest seldom saying anything at all online. Indeed, a few vocal ones will applaud them as they use the network mainly to go with the flow like a dead fish.

Ung Bun Ang

08viii18

Fake News You Can Trust

The following quote is an excerpt from a report in 1834 by Vietnamese General Troung Giang Ming to his emperor Minh Mang.

An opinion leader in the Campro network rebuts the quote pointing out his contemporaries are different from the Cambodian officials of 1834. He says they now have a much better brain with high education degrees up to PhD and beyond.

As it turns out, the only difference is that now with higher degrees of intelligence they also have developed a larger corrupt brain to deal with much bigger bribes their ancestors could never have dreamt of. They have been collectively validating General Troung research outcomes for 184 years and will likely continue do so until Vietnam completes its westward journey in Hun Sen’s peace and economic prosperity.

"After studying the [Cambodian] situation, we [Vietnamese] have decided that Cambodian officials only know how to bribe and be bribed. Offices are sold; nobody carries out orders; everyone works for his own account."

David Chandler (2008), A History of Cambodia, 4th Edition, Westview Press, Page 150

28 comments:

“Was there cheating in the election on 29th July 2018 or not?”-----------------------There was no cheating. The logic is so simple:

1. Mr. Hun Sen and CPP is so dominant. There is no need to cheat to win.

2. CNRP has fallen so low, down and out. They would have been the ones to need to cheat. But they could not.

3. Mr. Hun Sen and CPP clearly wanted a clean election. They asked as much help from the International community as possible to make the election as clean as possible. IN particular, they asked and received help from Japan.

4. CNRM again, tried to cheat but fail. CNRP's faction with Kem Sokha refused to collaborate with Scam Rainsy and his so called CNRM movement to cheat.

5. It's clear that CNRM's motto is: If I cannot have, nobody else can. It's a sociopath's behavior. Nobody will listen to CNRM. Everyone else will recognize the election result in July 2018.

6. Clearly Mr. Hun Sen does not need to cheat to win. He just wins. As he said before, "I am not that smart, it's my opponent who is so stupid." Clearly Kem Sokha and Scam Rainsy simply handed the victory to Mr. Hun Sen.

1. You are weak, you must behave and give no reason for Mr. Hun Sen or CPP to prosecute you. When I was poor, on welfare, I worked hard, and obeyed the law. I studied well and received scholarship to go to college.

Kem Sokha kept having sex with young girls he took to Bangkok on sex trips. Scam Rainsy kept making up lies about other people. He did not even see the clip from Chevron's gas station, yet he already knew the killer's face in the clip. Then he blamed Mr. Hun Sen for having a fake killer substitute. (I wonder if Scam Rainsy hired the killer himself to kill Kem Ley, thus he knew the face of the real killer...LOL...)

2. When you are weak, you must be nice. Stay out of trouble, then you can be allowed to join the election. The people might vote for you. Stop making lies and vicious attacks against others. Remember CNRP's attack against Kem Ley?

Mr. Hun Sen lied with making claim of having video recordings in which Kem Sokha was having explicit sex with Mon Srey in Bangkok. I demand Scam Rainsy to sue Mr. Hun Sen for lying: Prove to us that he actually had such sex recordings.

How come Scam Rainsy never sued Mr. Hun Sen? Mr. Hun Sen also lied about helping Kem Sokha to take over CNRP and its presidency. Scam Rainsy, you must expose Mr. Hun Sen's lie to vindicate Kem Sokha. You must sue Mr. Hun Sen for lying: Kem Sokha would never betray CNRP and work with Mr. Hun Sen.

Hah, that's me. I act cute and nice, the Whites just utterly love me. The two blondes in school protected me from all harassment. The German folks drove to my neighborhood to take me home for yard work, then fed me well. I received scholarship and went to college for free.

It's all about acting. Can Khmers act nice and cute? Stop being nasty, quit talking about killing and chop-chop. And please, stop insulting others. I think Henry Kissinger got insulted and ordered B-52 bombing against Cambodia to teach the Khmer a lesson.

The problem with the opposition is: They cannot find a worthy leader to oppose Mr. Hun Sen.

Just look at Kem Sokha, he is a sex maniac and also a blood thirsty racist. He said there was no S-21 camp. Vietnamese made it up to justify the invasion and occupation. When there was a stamped on Koh Pich, he claimed that Vietnamese caused it to stop Cambodians from celebrating New Years.

What about Scam Rainsy? When he was interviewed, "Are you a soft leader?" He jumped the gun, "No I am not." Then he asked, "What do you mean soft." LOL.... I think he was thinking about his yang-thingie as compared to Kem Sokha's mighty spear!

My next door neighbor is a doctor, and his dog barked too much. So he sneaked some Prozac capsules in its food. After eating the dog slept like a log.“It is about time for the yuon barking dog here to take some Prozac too. LOL”

Prozac is used to treat major depressive disorder, bulimia nervosa (an eating disorder), obsessive-compulsive disorder, and panic disorder. Prozac is sometimes used together with another medication called olanzapine (Zyprexa) to treat manic depression caused by bipolar disorder.

Right now there is a big war between the rapists and the local Cambodians. Cambodian locals have been lynching the rapists to death if caught. The rapists are stepping up and killing the victims to avoid being caught.

Just blame it to the Vietnamese will not solve any problem. Put Cambodia under Vietnam's control then the problem will be solved.

I think Prozac costs quite a bit. Cambodians are dirt poor so... let use apply my free method of curing trouble Cambodians. Just a few shock wave to the Cambodians' heads, all problems will be fixed.

That's why China supplied Cambodian police with the special batons to deal with the Cambodian trouble makers. Since then, there were no more mass demonstrations nor protests... Deng, I have to watch old video clips for entertainment!

"If Mr. Hun Sen is paying me or has met me before then may God punish me with a horrible death by a lightning strike or a car crash. But if I have not met Mr. Hun Sen nor am not working for him then may God continue to punish the Khmer, more, a lot more."

I am praying for the Thais to continue to abuse the Khmers (I am referring to the shooting deaths at the border for stealing rosewood and random killings on the planation, or fishing boats. I am praying for Cambodia to suffer sanction from Sam Rainsy's plea to EU and USA to stop importing from Cambodia. I am praying for the Khmers to go nuts then destroy each others.

See? Such a violent culture. Do not invest in Cambodia, the Khmer workers are lazy and violent.

A couple years ago, a Chinese manager scolded several Khmer construction workers for being stupid and lazy. Later in the evening, the Khmer workers came back to the construction site and butchered the Chinese manager into pieces with axes!

Declassified CIA documents

Sam Rainsy

Note from Hengsoy Jr.

We, Heng Soy's family and friends, are as dedicated as ever to continue his legacy of publishing sensitive information about Cambodia.

Ethnocide: destruction of a culture

For 10 years, the Vietnamese tried to apply to Cambodia a policy of ethnocide, insidiously carried out in the educational domain.... [T]he curriculum was based on that of Vietnam.... "Even schools' names come from Vietnamese"

Disputed Cambodia’s territorial waters

Facing Genocide

Award-winning film is a search into the personality of Khieu Samphan, meetings with him one and half year before his arrest (Khmer / French with English subtitles)

HRW report - DRAGGED AND BEATEN

The Cambodian Government’s Role in the October 2015 Attack on Opposition Politicians

Sam Rainsy's CV ប្រវត្តិរូប លោក សម រង្សីុ

(ខេមរភាសា / English) Leadership Cambodians desire, deserve

30 Years of Hun Sen

75-page report by Human Rights Watch, Jan. 2015

Reminder from Heng Soy (founder of KI Media)

Truth2Power (T2P) Media [formerly KI Media] loves to hear from you, and we're giving you a bullhorn. We just ask that you keep things civil. Please leave out personal attacks, do not use profanity, ethnic or racial slurs, or take shots at anyone's sexual orientation or religion. We thank you for your cooperation!

Concerts for the People of Kampuchea

On Dec 26-29, 1979 [by now, Cambodia under one full year of Vietnamese occupation], the musician Paul McCartney and Kurt Waldheim, the Secretary-General of the United Nations, organized a four-night benefit

Vietnam Invasion of Kampuchea (2 of 5, Film in English)

'The Vietnamese boasted, "The situation in Kampuchea is irreversible." ...the Vietnamese had installed a government of their own choosing. The figurehead were former Khmer Rouge... The Pol Pot regime had ended. But the worse was still not over... hundreds of thousands died during two long years of famine.'

Welcome to The Harvard Classics

Speak Truth to Power

A WORLD SAFE FOR DIVERSITY

Punctuation is Key to Development

Compare these two versions of Khmer article: Original vs. With Punctuation

Fair Trial Rights Handbook

In both Khmer and English

How chronic stress affects your brain

TED-Ed: How chronic stress can affect the brain's size, structure, and how it functions

Trauma Handbook

In both Khmer and English

Time for Truth

Os Guinness at Stanford Univ.

Is Tolerance Intolerant?

Pursuing the Climate of Acceptance and Inclusion - Ravi Zacharias at UCLA

Gene Sharp

From Dictatorship to Democracy, in English, other languages, free downloading

Gene Sharp

From Dictatorship to Democracy (Khmer translated by Mr. Ung Bun Ang)

UDHR

Universal Declaration of Human Rights, punctuated Khmer

Proverbs

Punctuated Khmer

Elizabeth Becker

Luke

ដំណឹងល្អ រៀបរៀង ដោយលូកា (Punctuated Khmer)

Sam Rainsy

My Struggle for Democracy in Cambodia

MIRACLES: Is Belief in Supernatural Irrational?

Standing ovation for this witty, illuminating, educational talk of Oxford prof. John Lennox at Harvard Univ.

Theary Seng

Rithy Panh

Pin Yathay

Nic Dunlop

How To Make Your Kids Smarter

10 Steps Backed By Science

KramaNation

KI Media family in KramaNation

Published articles about Vietnamese Military Occupation

Genocide under the cover of Genocide, 25 Dec. 1978 - 23 Oct. 1991

ប្រវត្តិសាស្ត្រ ប្រទេស កម្ពុជា | History Series

សម រង្ស៊ី / Sam Rainsy: ខ្ញុំ សូម លាតត្រដាង ប្រវត្តិសាស្ត្រ ប្រទេស កម្ពុជា មួយរយៈកាល (ពីឆ្នាំ ១៩៥១ ដល់ឆ្នាំ ១៩៩១) ដែលគេ បិទបាំង មិនឲ្យ ប្រជារាស្ត្រខ្មែរ បានដឹង។ I would like to expose a period of Cambodia's history (from 1951 to 1991) that has been hidden to the Cambodian people.

REPEAT OFFENDER: Vietnam's Persistent Trade in Illegal Timber

Report of London-based Environmental Investigation Agency, May 2017

GRAND CONCESSIONS

Vietnamese People's Army has quietly assumed control of nearly 40,000 hectares of land in Ratanakkiri (Cambodia Daily, 24 Dec. 2015)

Global Witness: Rubber Barons

How Vietnamese companies and international financiers are driving a land grabbing crisis in Cambodia and Laos

K-5 GENOCIDE, 1981-88

The Vietnamization of Cambodia: A New Model of Colonialism

A series of exposes that Indochina Report has published on the Vietnamization process. Others in the series: "The Military Occupation of Kampuchea" (1985), "Vietnamized Cambodia: A Silent Ethnocide" by Marie Alexandrine Martin (1986). and "Daily Life in Cambodia: A Personal Account" by Dr. Esmeralda Luciolli (1988)

Vietnamization: Airlines, Airspace

Cambodia Angkor Air, "golden route" over Cambodian airspace

Cambodia's Family Tree

Global Witness Report: Cambodia is run by a kleptocratic elite that generates much of its wealth via the seizure of public assets, particularly natural resources.

The Economist explains economics

The Economist explains” 6 seminal economics ideas.

Who Killed Chea Vichea?

The Peabody Award-winning film in both KHMER and English. More at www.whokilledcheavichea.com.

I Am Chut Wutty

Banned in Cambodia, documentary film about murdered environmental activist by govt security