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2 Topics for today's session: Degree-day/phenology concepts Some features of the IPPC "Online weather data and degree-days" website at uspest.org/wea Development and use of specific models example applications

7 What to know about degree-days: Insects have complex life cycles Eggs Larvae Pupae (most) Adults -Timing of all stages is *typically* predictable using degree-days, which are a two dimensional heat unit of development for cold blooded organisms

8 Phenology and degree-day concepts Heat unit concepts and examples first published by Reaumur (1736), modern refs. in Arnold (1959, 1960) Degree-day models in common use for timing of sampling and management events in agriculture; a cornerstone of IPM

9 Phenology: the study of periodic phenomena in their relations to each other, as climatic and weather changes to plant life (from Torre-Bueno 1 st ed.)

12 Types of degree-days Used for insects, plants, plant diseases, other uses Simple average: daily max + min/2 - lower threshold (ignores any upper threshold) Growing degree-days for corn: use simple avg but subst lower threshold in place of min (if min is lower), subst upper threshold in place of max (if max is higher) Growing degree-days for cereals: same as simple average Single and double triangle: simple geometric formulae (the latter uses tonights min for second half of today) Single and double sine curve: more complex trig. formulae Actual degree-days: computed in real time ex. once/minute Degree-hours: require hourly data Fireblight degree-days: 4-day running degree-day total Heating and Cooling degree-days: used by the power industry

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14 Degree-day Models: A bit more detail

15 Degree-day Concepts Assume that developmental rate is linearly related to temperature above a lower threshold (Tlow) Work best in temperate regions for populations that have relatively few, non-overlapping generations DD models often require a "biofix" - biological monitoring event used to initialize the model (biofix = starting date that the user inputs)

16 Days Developing degree-day models from lab studies 200 Temperature vs. development time Development time (days) Temperature (F)

30 What is Climate Mapping? The process of interpolating climate statistics at irregularlyspaced station locations to a regular grid Geospatial Climatology The study of the spatial patterns of climate on the earth s surface and their causes

31 Degree-day map example for US: Brown Marmorated Stink Bug

32 Summary Points: Degree-day/phenology models can help in timing of sampling and treatment based on weather trends IPPC uspest.org/wea has evolved as a hybrid for support of State, Regional, and National needs MyPest Home Page now integrates numerous models and weather in one place Degree-day maps can help show how timing varies over local and regional scales

33 Degree-days: a tool for decision support, not another tool we can store in the tool shed

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