Although Republican Chris Dudley continues to hold a slim lead, mathematical calculations based on statewide voting trends show Kitzhaber is likely to overtake him and win by about 10,000 votes out of 1.4 million cast. The newspaper’s projections show Kitzhaber winning by 49 percent to 48 percent, which is outside the margin for automatic recount.

Oregon-based station KOIN local 6 also projected Kitzhaber as the winner of the race.

The former two-term governor Kitzhaber and the political rookie Dudley have spent a combined total of at least $15 million on their campaigns this year.

Pacific University political science professor Jim Moore said a sluggish turnout by independents hurt Dudley, because those independents tend to vote Republican. This year’s governor’s race is one of the closest in recent history, Moore said, and could mirror other state and national elections in which Democrats eked out victories by narrow margins.