Tropical Depression DALILA

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013
200 PM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013
DALILA IS ON THE CUSP OF BECOMING A REMNANT LOW. THERE IS A SMALL
BURST OF CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER...BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS
BARELY ORGANIZED. IN FACT...THE WIND SPEEDS ASSOCIATED WITH DALILA
HAVE EITHER BEEN STEADY OR GRADUALLY COMING DOWN DURING THE PAST
24 HOURS. THIS TREND SUGGESTS THAT THE CONVECTIVE BURSTS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY ORGANIZED...AND ARE MORE LIKE RANDOM PUFFS OF
DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS CHARACTERISTIC OF A REMNANT LOW. IF THE
CONVECTION DOES NOT SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE...DALILA IS LIKELY TO BE
DECLARED A REMNANT LOW THIS EVENING. THE INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT...
AND A GRADUAL SPINDOWN IS PROBABLE GIVEN INCREASING SHEAR FROM
HURRICANE ERICK. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY THE SAME AS
BEFORE.
VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS STATIONARY. DALILA SHOULD
BEGIN TO BE DRAWN EASTWARD THEN NORTHWARD INTO THE CIRCULATION OF
THE MUCH LARGER ERICK DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SHIFTED EASTWARD OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT STILL A BIT
EAST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/2100Z 17.0N 113.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 17.0N 113.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 07/1800Z 17.1N 112.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 08/0600Z 17.3N 112.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 08/1800Z 17.8N 112.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED
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FORECASTER BLAKE
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