May 2008

Israel Defeats the Entire Middle East

Yesterday I had one of those oh-my-God moments, the kind where I thought I could see the future. It started by reading some articles about the lack of a serious energy policy in the United States. The problem is that our politicians believe, probably correctly, that they can’t get elected if they propose an energy policy that could work.

Then I stumbled across an article about two Israeli companies that have allegedly made huge breakthroughs in solar power. As with all of these breakthrough stories, you have to assume they are more hype than substance, but take a look:

The oh-my-God moment came when I realized that Israel can destroy all of its local enemies by inventing solar technology that makes oil uneconomical. Such an invention would do more harm than any military attack. And it’s all legal and moral. The politicians and business people in Israel have all the right incentives times a thousand. Their very survival is at risk. Israel is one patent away from crushing every oil producing country in the world.

So that’s my prediction. Whether these latest announcements are real or hype, I think Israel will eventually create the technology to make oil irrelevant to energy production.

Comments

Try thinking about this one too. If I posted an anti Israeli message here, you'd not approve it thinking I'm racist. But if I post an anti American government or anti arabic message, you'll not think twice before approving it. Talk about double standards.

I posited something very similar in a Greenpunk sci-fi story I'm writing serial style on the web (www.greenpunk.org), but I have Iran withdrawing from OPEC and using a "Bushehr nuclear reactor farm" to do so.

I think think the progress of solar panels is very over hyped.
But I don't think this will effect a lot of there enemieslets have a look.
-Palestinians, they have absolutely no oil so it won'y effect them
-Jordan, No oil but there economy is growing and will probably become a somewhat rich country in the not-so-distant-future.
-UAE, They have a lot of oil and make a lot of money from it but there government has made a lot of progress and the country isn't really oil dependant anymore (this is true for most gulf states except saudi arabia)

Actually if you look a little closer you will notice not many of Israel's current or historical enemies are really sitting on much oil. Hamas isn't, Syria isn't, Egypt isn't, Hezbollah isn't. The real people getting rich on oil (mostly Saudis) have done little to really hurt Israel. Iran might be an exception to the extent they would have to reduce help to Hezbollah, but that might not be as much as you might think, it isn't like Iran as nothing at all but oil and Katushyas are not that costly.

I was in Tel Aviv this week with some colleagues and the first thing we noticed was that nearly every building in the city had solar panels on the roof. That, and the gas prices were pretty obscene. 7.5 NIS/liter = 8.3 USD/gallon

Once again, a bunch of endpoints put together to infer the original intention. Israel exists because the UN decided it would be prudent to be nice to a bunch of people Hitler wanted to eradicate by allowing them to fulfil some passages in ancient bloody books and plonk their lilywhite (often american) arses in the middle of a desert (where they obviously belong).

Destiny this is not. You could argue that the religious context is nice and convenient as a way to cover up The Smoking Man's agenda, but to be honest I simply don't believe governments are clever or organised enough to put this stuff together.

As I mentioned earlier, this tech might do very well to give us cheaper electricity (it could generate hydrogen, I guess, but that's a whole other emerging technology) but ultimately, as with wind power, what do you do when the sun goes in (the wind drops)?

We're going nuclear on a planetary scale people, as a species we just don't have 1) the mental capacity or will to come up with a better way or 2) a choice

It's either that or recognise that it's time we shrank as a global population - fat chance.

They solve the energy crisis five times every day. It's funny how there are 1000 sites that pick up some bogus story with the line "I don't know if this is true, but if it is...." and approximately zero sites that analyze whether it really is true. One thing I do know is that approximately 1000 "invention X to provide cheap clean power" stories haven't affected the future prices of oil!

When I read "Oil futures drop on news of invention X", THEN I'll start talking about the demise of oil-rich countries.

Also, nuclear and coal power are already a cheaper way to generate electricity than oil. The chance that these fantasies will lower the price of electricity? Slim to none. Cheap, clean electricity production already exists, especially in France and Sweden. It's called nuclear power.

If the Israelis really want to lower the price of oil, they should build a better battery.

I wish the Israelis well. More efficient photovoltaic generation is one of the future forms of solar energy that will positively affect the cost of power picture. The technology has been around for awhile. But there have been a host of problems with every claim to cheap solar power.

Any genetic engineering is fraught with dangers that are yet to be fully understood, much less safely controlled. You don’t see food producers advertising explicitly that they genetically engineer their products. They hide the fact and that is why organic grown foods are in such demand now.

The difficulties so far encountered with concentrated photovoltaics are that often the extra irradiation focused on the photovoltaic cell does increase its photon activity but only until it reaches a certain temperature and can shorten their life. The exotic lenses, reflective materials and mirrors used require precise placement, curvature and orientation to the sun. Also they get dirty easy and need frequent cleaning.
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The thin-film, low cost photovoltaic material manufactured in this country using a combination of exotic materials is currently in the formative, non-mass produced stages and is still too expensive. Most of this fabrication is going overseas to the highest bidder and not helping us one bit. Somehow the US government doesn’t consider this “strategic materials and technology”. Go figure.

Stories of cheap solar electricity have been floating around for decades and are yet to come to fruition. The closest low per watt cost is the solar thermal (not photovoltaic) plants in the Mojave Desert and elsewhere that are now competitive with other fossil fueled power plants

But the average homeowner is still limited to expensive solar photovoltaics and where practical, wind generation. This could still work though if there was a partnership with industry and the government to regulate the price of power generated by 100% renewable energy (by definition, solar and wind). Anyone that invest in this system for their home is producing their own power but at times putting extra power back into the grid.

Any renewable energy producer should be paid a premium for not only the power they use but for the extra power they put back into the grid. The cost of this would be born by the non-renewable energy producers. This would entice them to produce a much larger percentage of their power using renewable energy.

Of course this would require Draconian political measures and a dramatic public mind-set change to do this. Whops, forgot I was looking for logic here. There is no logic to what a politically corrupt system and apathetically, uninformed public will do or not do.

Scott, this will NOT become big. Steorn is coming out with their Orbo technology which will provide clean perpetual energy for all. They will even give the technology away to developing countries. God bless the Irish.

"The oh-my-God moment came when I realized that Israel can destroy all of its local enemies by inventing solar technology that makes oil uneconomical.M"

Yeah, that's about as likely as someone inventing a pill that turns water into gasoline.

The Saudis pump oil for around $5/bbl. Even with 100% efficiency and the photovoltaics costing nothing, it still wouldn't have the energy/mass ratio to replace oil in mobile applications at $50/bbl. Even if it the magical technology somehow weighed nothing too, it still wouldn't have the available surface area.

And anyways, even if all that happened, all those countries would still hate Israel just as much, so nothing would change, except we would have to give them more aid so everyone didn't starve to death. And if you think that would improve our hand, you've never heard of North Korea.

There is only one good reason to stop burning oil for fuel, and it can be summed up in one word. Plastic. I actually agree with the ultra-confused green party hippies, but not for any drug induced BS about Gay-uh, or concern for the endangered kangaroo rat. The earth is ours to destroy as we see fit (God said so in the bible, and Rev. Wright confirmed it). But I think we should leave a little oil so our great-great-great-great grandkids can have iPods, milk cartons, sporks, and the countless other disposable POS that we enjoy today.

They're probably done with the basics, just working to develop a way to prevent China from immediately stealing it and making cheap, badly made, ecologically disastrous models to flood the world with. That's what's taking so long.
D. Mented

So... Am I the only one who is thinking, "How can I cash in on this news??"

It seems to me that once/if SUNRGI goes public, their stock would continue to grow for a couple decades. Periphery industries would also benefit, I suppose - such as the PC chip manufacturing facilities that this company plans on using to mass produce this product.

Does anyone share in this thought? Can someone offer some investment advice??? Everyone knows that bloggers offer the most qualified, proven financial advice available on this planet('s internetwork)...

The key here is transport (which consumes so much terrorism-related Saudi oil). The solution is already being done in Australia and New Zealand, neither of which use nuclear power. So if this is possible and feasible without sweet, clean, pure nuclear power, imagine how good it would be in the USA and France?

www.kiwiev.com

www.electric-echo.com

Just 2 examples of Antipodean brilliance in terms of electric transportation.

we tend to forget that most of the money stops in there. Any smart business man, reinvests the bulk of their wealth. Finding a better power technology than oil will only cut a single revenue stream for most of the powerful. Our problem doesn't go away, it will only change vector.