MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0412
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0509 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN KS...WRN AND CNTRL OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 271009Z - 271145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AT LEAST LOW SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES EXIST WITH
DEVELOPING CONVECTION THROUGH 13-15Z. IT IS NOT YET CERTAIN THAT A
WATCH IS NEEDED...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...A PACIFIC COLD FRONT HAS BEEN OVERTAKING THE DRYLINE
DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS HAS LED TO SOME RECENT INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...BUT THIS
INITIAL ACTIVITY IS QUICKLY BEING UNDERCUT BY THE FRONT...WITH
STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH PERHAPS STILL LAGGING TO THE
WEST.
AS THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE PIVOTS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED FORCING LIKELY
WILL CATCH UP TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT IT REMAINS UNCLEAR JUST
HOW QUICKLY THIS WILL OCCUR. LATEST MODEL OUTPUT SEEMS TO GENERALLY
INDICATE THAT THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AT LEAST CLOSER TO MIDDAY
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND EASTERN KANSAS.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MOISTENING THAT HAS OCCURRED ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL KANSAS OVERNIGHT...THE INITIATION OF
SUBSTANTIVE CONVECTIVE ALONG THE COLD FRONT MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY
OUT OF THE QUESTION AS IT CROSSES THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR THROUGH
13-15Z. SUFFICIENT POTENTIAL INSTABILITY EXISTS TO SUPPORT AN
EVOLVING CONVECTIVE LINE WITH AT LEAST LOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS IN THE PRESENCE OF 50+ KT DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW.
OTHERWISE...CONVECTION SUPPORTED BY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM
ADVECTION DEVELOPING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS HAS SHOWN RECENT INTENSIFICATION. THE EXTENT OF THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS A BIT
UNCLEAR...WITH ACTIVITY PROBABLY STILL ROOTED ABOVE AT LEAST A WEAK
NEAR SURFACE INVERSION LAYER...AND ITS NOT CLEAR WHETHER CURRENT
INTENSITIES WILL PERSIST BEYOND DAYBREAK. BUT...UNTIL THEN...THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE HAIL.
..KERR/MEAD.. 04/27/2014
ATTN...WFO...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...FWD...OUN...GID...DDC...
LAT...LON 35079930 36459928 37569938 38709920 39479810 39929655
39519479 38619483 37489611 35389661 33649777 33699882
35079930