Virginia Beach's beach at risk from sea-level rise

From his government office in Virginia Beach, Va., Clay Bernick can see the future, and that future looks a lot like the movie Waterworld.

From his government office in Virginia Beach, Va., Clay Bernick can see the future, and that future looks a lot like the movie Waterworld.

The sea level is rising in Virginia Beach and the entire area known as Hampton Roads because of the warming climate, and the area also happens to be sinking for other geological reasons.

Within 50 years, a big part of Virginia Beach's identity - its beach - could be lost if nothing is done, said Bernick, the city's environment and sustainability administrator. Large pieces of land also could be lost to the ocean in nearby Norfolk.

In fact, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration warns that, Hampton Roads is second only to greater New Orleans in the risk from sea-level rise among areas its size.

"It's a significant threat," Bernick said. "At this point, I wouldn't put it in the category of fear, because it's a long way off." But he added: "You've got multiple factors with flashing lights saying, 'OK, guys, what are you going to do?'"

Since 1954, cities have answered that question by turning to a manual from the Army Corps of Engineers on how to protect shores by holding back the sea.

But this month, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency published the first manual on how not to hold it back, arguing that costly seawalls and dikes eventually fail because sea-level rise is unstoppable. The federal Global Change Research Program estimates that the sea will rise 14 to 17 inches around Hampton Roads in the next century.

The analysis, Rolling Easements, published on the EPA's website, hopes "to get people on the path of not expecting to hold back the sea" as the warming climate is expected to melt ice around the globe, EPA researcher James Titus said.