First impressions are hard to shake. Voters thought the Abbott government’s first budget was unfair the moment they digested it and, almost six weeks on, that judgment hasn’t changed.

Despite an improvement in the Coalition primary and two-party preferred vote, the latest Age-Nielsen Poll represents a stunning 6.5 per cent swing against the Coalition since the election.

The proportion of voters who consider the budget to be unfair – 61 per cent – is virtually unchanged since the first post-budget poll, and mirrors the prime minister’s disapproval rating.

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In a neat symmetry, the proportion of voters who give the budget a tick on fairness – one in three – is virtually the same as the number who approve of Tony Abbott’s performance (35 per cent).

Attempts to sell the budget have been about as effective as those of certain right-wing commentators to damage the standing of Malcolm Turnbull, who remains the choice of 62 per cent of voters as the preferred Liberal leader, up four points since February.

The budget sales effort has been undermined by stumbles over detail, the ill-discipline of backbenchers, Mr Abbott’s refusal to acknowledge the pre-election promises that were broken and unnecessary distractions.

What Mr Abbott desperately needs is a circuit-breaker, and his best hope is that the new Senate will provide him with one, giving him the numbers to abolish the carbon tax, secure the passage of controversial budget measures and generate some momentum.

Bill Shorten retains his lead as preferred prime minister, but the Labor leader has a problem of his own: voters still don’t have a clear idea of who he is and what he stands for.

His approval rating is down five points to 42 per cent, but still just in positive territory (with a 41 per cent disapproval), in sharp contrast to Mr Abbott’s net rating of minus 25. But the lack of a firm endorsement is underscored when voters are asked to nominate their preferred Labor leader.

Mr Shorten tops the poll with 25 per cent, with Anthony Albanese second, on 19 per cent, Tanya Plibesek third on 17, and Tony Burke and Chris Bowen on seven. One quarter of those polled, as many as nominate Mr Shorten, do not have an opinion.

While Mr Turnbull tops the Coalition poll with 40 per cent, there is no prospect of a move to the former leader in the foreseeable future and no likelihood of him destabilising. Mr Abbott is second, at 21 per cent, well clear of Joe Hockey and Julie Bishop, on 11.

Mr Abbott also is the leader preferred by Coalition voters, whether the choice is a two-horse race between him and Mr Turnbull or all contenders.

His best hope of improving his standing with those who are not rusted on Coalition voters – and some who are – lies with the dynamic of the new Senate which is why, for Mr Abbott, July 1 cannot come soon enough.

58 comments

The popularity ratings for this budget are doomed to be stuck malodoursly at the level of Stumbles Hockey*s shoes. No amount of political Glen 20 is going to change that.

Commenter

David D

Location

Ettalong Beach

Date and time

June 23, 2014, 7:19AM

I see Albo is just a sniff behind Shorten and according to many sources has his knife out ready for sharpening.

Watch your back Billy if your name continues to be mentioned at the Union Royal Commission.

Commenter

Andie

Date and time

June 23, 2014, 10:36AM

I will add that the mold of Hockey and Abbott on the tiles of our country is something no amount of bleach will help. Let's renovate the bathroom and change those moldy tiles!!!

Commenter

Mali

Date and time

June 23, 2014, 10:43AM

Oh well, carbon tax is about to be repealed.

Bye-bye to the tax that hurts the poor.

# Maybe next time some thought will go into labor policy instead of just mcternan's hatred of those with less money than himself?

[ and one more thing- did shorten have the approval of the union he was running to dip into union funds as jackson has said he did? Not asking this question makes it seem like, well, like leftist media is protecting a comrade chum ]

Commenter

Alex

Location

Finley

Date and time

June 23, 2014, 10:44AM

...For any pedants; *malodorous (ly)*. Do I have to stay in after school? (The original post was written sans caffeine)

Commenter

David D

Location

Ettalong Beach

Date and time

June 23, 2014, 11:54AM

Funny Andie in light of the current polls I heard from many sources that Malcolm is teeing up a shot at Tony. How can Bolt and Jones be wrong.

Commenter

tasch2

Location

Mornington Peninsula

Date and time

June 23, 2014, 12:40PM

'In a neat symmetry, the proportion of voters who give the budget a tick on fairness – one in three – is virtually the same as the number who approve of Tony Abbott’s performance (35 per cent).'

So only one-third of the Australian voters are fascist rat-bags ? There were several thousand voters expressing their extreme discontent about the Abbott government's intolerable treatment of asylum seekers, at a protest meeting in Melbourne yesterday. Perhaps they were all 'commies' ?It will be interesting to see how many Senators will be brave or stupid enough to align themselves with Abbott. Doing that could be political suicide.

Commenter

adam

Location

yarrawonga

Date and time

June 23, 2014, 7:29AM

Adam, I seem to recall that Tony Abbott won the election just 9 months ago with an 18 seat majority. A few thousand protestors in Melbourne yesterday is just a few thousand dummy spitters who refuse to abide by the umpire's decision. And by the way no boats in the last 6 months versus 190 boats under Labor for the same period. This is a saving of $50 million per month and no lives lost at sea. That is one of the policies we voted for. Yeas the budget was poorly sold but the general thrust of reducing the reliance on welfare and the earn or learn philosophy is right for this country.

Commenter

Peter

Location

Eaglemont

Date and time

June 23, 2014, 11:02AM

"... fascist rat-bags".@Adam: you're an old, rusted-on leftie who cannot accept the fact that Labor lost the last election. Fine. We get it. We understand it. Now how about you wait patiently until the next election to cast another vote for your labor-losers and let us clean up the mess your lot has left us in the meantime.

Commenter

The Other Guy

Location

Geelong

Date and time

June 23, 2014, 11:47AM

Sorry Adam, just interrupting.

Hi FlandersYes we all know who won the election, these guys. Who chucked a three year tantrum about the result of the 2010 election.

While people spoke against a few of the Rudd Gillard policies, I do not remember so many protests and rallies between 2007 and 2013. So either the people upset by Gillard/Rudd decided it wasn't important enough to deal with before election day, or this current government has upset way more people.

And yes, they did win a big majority. A majority which they could not convert to the senate. They have no mandate. Due to their very own actions, statements and polocies, people are mad and scared enough to get vocal about it.

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