Filner recall gearing up for petition drive

The election dynamics would be considerably different depending on whether a recall election is held, or a special election following a Filner resignation.

A recall election would include a separate question to voters about a replacement for Filner if he is removed from office. All candidates would be on that one ballot and the one with the most votes would win, which means a candidate could become mayor with a plurality.

A special election requires a candidate to win a majority, and if that doesn’t happen the top two vote-getters would go to a runoff.

Much depends on who runs. But some handicappers suggest the Republicans’ best chance is with a recall election because the large Democratic voter registration advantage would make gaining a majority difficult for a GOP candidate.

Fletcher has gained a lot of attention from political analysts in part because he built a bipartisan coalition during his third-place finish in last year’s mayoral primary. He's also shown past prowess in raising campaign funds and has wealthy backers ready to fund a mayoral campaign.

Fletcher's a former Republican who switched to independent shortly before the mayoral primary, and then switched again and became a Democrat earlier this year. He’s working in government relations at Qualcomm and lecturing college students. He has said he would be consider running if there’s a vacancy, but the potential candidates generally have been reluctant to talk publicly about their prospects.

Faulconer is seen as having inside track on the Republican side. He’s favored by business-oriented The Lincoln Club and the county Republican Party.

The big unknown is whether DeMaio would suspend his ongoing campaign against freshman Democratic Rep. Scott Peters in the 52nd Congressional District to run for mayor.

DeMaio lost to Democrat Filner last November but has refused to definitively rule out running for mayor again in private discussions with those in Republican circles. Another mayoral bid risks alienating congressional district voters should voters reject him a second time and then he resumes his 2014 race against Peters.

DeMaio has the flexibility under campaign finance laws to transfer a sizable chunk of his roughly $500,000 raised for his congressional bid to a mayoral campaign.

San Diego Mesa College political science professor Carl Luna said he believes Fletcher is in an enviable spot.

“He has the best chances because he will get a lot of support from independents,” Luna said.

DeMaio has also polled well in recent weeks in surveys conducted by U-T San Diego and 10/News, including one showing a virtual dead heat in a head-to-head match-up against Fletcher.

Meanwhile, a Filner resignation would see Gloria installed as the acting mayor until an election was conducted. Barring legal challenges, a recall election probably wouldn’t take place until early next year, according to Laing.

Recall organizers have 39 days from Sunday, Aug. 18, to gather the required 101,597 signatures. That would mean obtaining an average of 2,605 signatures of registered city voters a day. A 30-day extension is allowed if some of the signatures originally submitted are invalid.

Laing said the petition backers anticipate they’ll need the extension.

“We are presuming we are going to need it,” Laing said. “So that would take us to roughly the end of October and then we’d have to get the signatures verified and then the City Council has to schedule an election in 60 to 90 days.”

The local Democratic and the Republican parties and the business-oriented Lincoln Club have said they would not help finance a recall.