Draft strategies are a common argument these days. It seems everywhere
you look; someone has found a new draft process that will guarantee
success. The Stud RB theory, the QB-WR Combo, Value Based Drafting,
the Stud WR theory; is one strategy really superior to another?
Depends who you are asking. I personally have tried each of the
aforementioned theories; and let me tell you…they all work.
But, let me also say…they have all failed me. It depends on
the year, the talent pool at each position and the league you are
in. Scoring system, league size, starting lineup requirements, etc…will
all affect what strategy will be successful for you. If your league
awards the quarterback twice the amount of points as running backs,
then obviously the Stud RB theory probably wouldn’t be the
best strategy to utilize. But that is not to say that it doesn’t
work for somebody else and their league. Which approach will you
use on draft day? Let’s break down the basics of a few of
the more popular strategies and find out what is best for you in
2007.

The Stud RB Theory (SRBT)
This is probably the most popular and oldest strategy out there
and has been hammered into the heads of almost every fantasy football
player for decades. The idea is simple. Take two running backs
with your first two picks, no matter what. The reason? Running
backs are utilized more than any other position and the “dominant”
running back is an increasingly rare commodity. Most leagues require
2 starting running backs, so if you are in a 10, 12, or even a
14-team league, a minimum of 20 running backs will need to be
started. Once you get beyond the first 15 running backs, the talent
pool becomes extremely thin. After 24 are gone, it’s likely
you’ll be selecting rookies and sleepers, and beyond 28,
a running back worth starting is almost non-existent.

Based solely on rushing statistics, although we all know what
players like Steven
Jackson and Reggie
Bush can bring to your team in the receiving categories, especially
PPR leagues; in 2006, of the top 15 running backs in terms of
attempts per game, that played at least 14 games, averaged approximately
317 attempts, 1360 yards and 10 touchdowns for the season. Of
the next 15 players, the average falls to just 211 attempts, 891
yards and 5.5 touchdowns (This TD average includes the spectacular
seasons of Maurice Jones-Drew and Corey Dillon with 13 each) Why
the drop-off? Last year, injuries and awful supporting casts were
the reasons there was an RBBC approach, which made the feature
back even more important.

Following the SRBT is a way to ensure that you will get two solid
starters at a position lacking great depth. However, for those
owners who are drafting near the end of a 14-team league the SRBT
may not seem so appealing and need may outweigh the value at that
point.

The argument to this theory is that you may be passing on premier
players at other position just to guarantee getting running backs.
Do you bypass Peyton
Manning, Carson
Palmer, Marvin
Harrison or Chad
Johnson for a second or third tier running back like Ronnie
Brown, Thomas Jones or Ahman Green? Some SRBT fanatics may raise
their hand here, arguing YES, that even the “stud” players at
the QB and WR position can not only be inconsistent, but their
depth and availability are far greater than that of the running
back. So when exactly does value outweigh the need? This leads
us to our next topic…

VBD (Value Based Drafting)
Value Based Drafting is a tactic largely based on a statistical
grading. Rank every player from the most valuable to the least
and drafting according to those rankings regardless of position.
It is a numbers game that can be incredibly time consuming but
some owners swear by this method. Take the best player on your
list, based on value. Seems shaky, but let’s take a look
into how this theory works.

Projections

Calculate Fantasy Points

Establish the Baseline

Determine the Value Number

Compile your Results

Draft

To begin you need to make stat projections for each draftable
player. If you simply do not wish to devote this kind of time,
I suggest the Cheatsheet Compiler/Draft
Buddy. This will save you some trouble and FFToday’s
Rankings and Projections have been proven to be some of the
best around. After you have your list of projections, you need
to calculate the estimated number of fantasy points each player
will end with based on your leagues scoring system. The number
of players you start at each position determines a baseline player
for each position. For example, in a 10-team league that requires
a starting lineup of 1 QB, 2 RB’s, 2 WR’s, 1 TE, 1
K, and 1 D/ST, the baseline for QB would be 10, RB would be 20,
same for WR’s, etc. Subtract the projected fantasy point
total of the baseline player from each players expected total
fantasy points to determine the “value” number. Example,
if you projected your 20th ranked wide receiver to finish with
100 fantasy points, simply subtract 100 from all of the other
wide receivers total projected fantasy points to obtain your “value”
number for each player at that position. Clearly all of the wide
receivers you ranked below 20th will have a negative value number.
This does not mean they are invaluable or not draft worthy, it
is just a ranking compared to the other players at that position.

After you have determined a value number for each player, compile
your cheat sheets for your draft. The theory is that when drafting,
you can easily choose based on the drop off in value from one
player to the next. For instance, it’s round 3 and you are
trying to determine whom to select. Will it be the WR or a RB?
You would look at the value number and the drop off to the next
available player at that position. Let’s say the wide receiver
you are considering has a value of 100 and the running back a
value of 95. This does not mean the wide receiver is more valuable.
You need to consider the next few players at each position. If
the next two wide receivers have a value of 94 and 93 and the
next two running backs have a value of 71 and 69, the drop-off
is much greater at the running back position thus making that
position the greater value pick.

Seemingly this strategy allows you to quickly make decisions
on draft day. Acquiring a very strong overall team is the objective
without an emphasis on any one position. Now the argument. This
strategy is completely based on your pre-draft projections, so
accuracy is extremely important, and doesn’t seem to allow
you much flexibility. You may find yourself drafting bench or
second tier starters based on value rather than need and passing
on quality players at other positions. However, some owners who
follow this strategy choose to begin their draft with a “starting
lineup first” plan before strictly drafting for value from
their list.

The Stud WR Theory
This strategy is one that I have been forced to follow the past
two seasons. Shockingly enough, although wildly inconsistent and
lacking confidence, I have won back-to-back division titles. I
know, unbelievable isn’t it? I was forced into this approach
by having the misfortune of selecting near the end of our serpentine
draft, and had to find a way to keep up with the Tomlinson’s.

The theory of this strategy is that instead of picking from the
scrapings of running backs your fellow owners have left you with
your top two picks; you instead take the top two wide receivers
on the board. Starting out with players such as Marvin
Harrison and Terrell
Owens can give you an advantage over all of your opponents
at this position on any given week. Seeing these top two receivers
go may also spark a run on the position, thus leaving you more
attractive options at running backs in the rounds to follow.

One other highlight to this strategy is that the top wide receivers
in the league are usually consistent in their production from
season to season, and every year there are running backs drafted
before them that don’t live up to the hype. See Cadillac
Williams, Lamont Jordan and Ronnie Brown from 2006, all of which
went before I selected Harrison.

The problem with this strategy is that wide receivers can be
extremely erratic and you are now forced to draft even lesser
talented running backs with your next two or three picks. Most
also agree that the talent pool at wide receiver is much deeper
than at the running back position, so how much of an advantage
are you really going to have?

Like I said in the beginning, I have been forced to use this
strategy two years in a row and have been fortunate enough to
see success, but I was probably the most prepared owner going
into the draft knowing that this was my fate. With your 3rd-5th
round picks certain to be running backs, make sure you do your
homework on the players that will be available to you in those
rounds. Research and preparation such as Mock
Drafting will help immensely and if you are lucky enough to
uncover a diamond in the rough or find that rookie that outperforms
expectations, it will make your season much less stressful when
the LaDainian’s and LJ’s are scoring at will, knowing
you still have a chance.

Championships have been won with numerous strategies and tactics
on draft day. Weather you chose to follow the SRBT, VBD, the Stud
WR Theory, make sure you have A plan. Do your research, study
hard and find what will work best for you based on your league,
and take that plan to the draft with confidence.