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Maple Leafs: Dion Phaneuf has all the leverage in contract talks with NHL club: Cox

So the Maple Leafs have passed their final test before the Winter Classic - yes, the shot count will have the usual suspects downplaying the value of the win for not fitting their preferred mathematical model - and now it's up to the Red Wings to demonstrate they also can go into the New Year's Day contest feeling a little better about themselves.

Mike Babcock's crew - tied in points with the Leafs with two fewer wins and one game in hand - will try to show some of their old mojo in Nashville on Monday night. The Wings have three wins in their last 10 and were obviously thrilled to get captain Henrik Zetterberg back for Saturday's 4-3 win over the Florida Panthers, who had beaten Detroit twice earlier in December.

In Toronto, of course, there's lots and lots of chatter about the captain of the Leafs, Dion Phaneuf, and not much of it about the empty netter he rolled home from 150 feet or so to finish off the Carolina Hurricanes Sunday night.

No, it's all about Phaneuf and the new contract that's been in the offing for weeks and seems likely to be finalized either this week or next.

The storm of controversy this impending deal seems to have inspired is unusually high, perhaps not that surprising given the fact Phaneuf has been a polarizing figure since arriving Jan. 31, 2010.

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Folks forget it was a lopsided deal massively in Toronto's favour that brought him here. Since Phaneuf left Calgary, the Flames have gone nowhere but down, yet there are those who insist on endlessly repeating the rumoured but unproven speculation that he was a divisive figure in Alberta and had to be dealt for the good of that franchise.

Folks also forget the lousy team he joined in Toronto, one that has been turned over entirely since his first game on Feb. 2, 2010, a 3-0 win over New Jersey. Only four teammates remain since then, and while some wish to (again endlessly) ask whether Phaneuf is a good enough leader to take this team anywhere, the real question has always been whether Leaf management could find away to add enough good working parts so he would eventually only have to be part of a larger effort.

The answer to that question remains unclear. But since he's been here, the team has gradually improved.

Finally, folks who want to suggest this is a terrible, terrible contract the Leafs are about to bestow upon this player seem to forget one crucial fact.

Phaneuf has the leverage here, not the Leafs.

He's the team's best defenceman, although Cody Franson has nights (like Sunday) when he might be and Morgan Rielly's future appears limitless.

Phaneuf is also an unrestricted free agent next summer, and as of now, would be the No. 1 UFA rearguard available and maybe the best player.

In other words, he's going to get his money, whether you love him or hate him or somewhere in between. In fact, he might well get more money in July with the salary cap going up next season that the $7 million per he expected to get in this proposed deal with the Leafs.

We can debate all day how good the Leafs may or may not be right now, but the real issue is how good will they be two years from now. That's when GM Dave Nonis's work at trying to build a real contender will be at a meaningful juncture for analysis.

To that end, losing Phaneuf for nothing next summer is clearly not a viable option (ask Ottawa how losing Daniel Alfredsson for zip has worked out), which gives him all of the chips in negotiations as we speak.

Trade him? Sure, but as a UFA-in-waiting, your returns will be limited, and your best trade alternative might not appear until near the trade deadline, at which point the Leafs might be in the awkward position of closing in on a playoff berth and trading away their captain and best defenceman, quite probably for one of those futures packages (see Flames, Jarome Iginla).

Depending on your evaluation of Phaneuf, you might prefer that option anyway. But it almost certainly won't put the club any closer to being that good team they want to be two years down the road.

So if you're the Leafs, you may not love doing the deal - probably too much money, definitely too much term - but you do the deal. Just like they didn't love the salary or the term on David Clarkson, but they signed him because they wanted the qualities he would bring to the team, qualities starting to become more evident.

Nonis won't sign any full no-trade contracts - at least he says he won't - so that offers a way out if this relationship with Phaneuf goes south down the road.

There are other defencemen a Leaf fan might prefer to have. But not many, and the ones you would prefer aren't available.

So instead, you invest in a player you know, one who has hung in there through some very tough times and gradually grown into the captaincy that was clearly given to him before he had a chance to prove himself in this town.

Phaneuf is plus-13 this season, plays 24 minutes a night and is part of an organization that seems to be trending upwards and, to the unending dismay of the Corsi crowd, might make the playoffs.

If you think he's not worth $7 million, well, you'll find many who agree, the same folks who will tell you R.A. Dickey is overpaid as is Kyle Lowry as are almost all pro athletes.

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