Abortion foes chipping away at 1973 Roe v. Wade ruling

Forty years ago this week, when the Supreme Court made history by legalizing abortion, the vote was surprisingly lopsided - 7 to 2 - on a court dominated by Republican appointees. Though Roe v. Wade was controversial, it wasn't the political flash point that it would become. Four decades later, Roe is the leading symbol of the country's social division. Abortion is a wedge issue in most political campaigns and Supreme Court nominations. On Friday, anti-abortion protesters will descend on Washington, even as abortion-rights activists bemoan a rising mountain of state restrictions.

Yet, for all the protests mounted, lawsuits brought, votes cast and violence committed over the issue since 1973, one thing has barely budged - public opinion. According to a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll last month, 28 percent say abortion should be legal in all circumstances; 18 percent believe it should be legal in none. The vast center, 52 percent of Americans, wants abortion to remain legal with some restrictions - virtually unchanged since Gallup first asked this question in 1975.

Statistics, of course, don't tell the whole story.

Unable to overturn Roe, abortion foes have waged a successful war of attrition. They have made abortion harder to obtain in many states and almost impossible in a few. Mississippi, North Dakota and South Dakota each have a single provider.

An assortment of restrictions has been imposed. Some, such as parental notification or consent for minors, are just common sense. Others, sold as safety precautions or informed consent, are designed to dissuade a woman from getting an abortion. Under laws enacted in Texas, Oklahoma and North Carolina, an ultrasound screen must be turned so women can see the image and the doctor must describe the fetus. The government, not the doctor, dictates what patients should be told.

Abortion-rights activists have had victories, too. After battles in Mississippi and Colorado, voters rejected amendments that would have defined "personhood" as starting at fertilization.

If you believe, as we long have, that abortion should be legal, safe and rare, then some encouraging trends have emerged amid all the contentiousness. The abortion rate, which peaked in the 1980s, has fallen drastically and remains steady at just over 19 abortions per 1,000 women. And, nearly two of every three abortions occurs in the first nine weeks, up from fewer than 40 percent in 1973.

The new "morning after pill," which can block pregnancy when taken within 72 hours, could keep abortion numbers declining.

So after 40 years, what lies ahead?

Chances that abortion will be outlawed are close to nil. Even if Roe were reversed, the decision would just revert to the states, where a total ban appears to be political poison. In November, two Senate candidates, Todd Akin in Missouri and Richard Mourdock in Indiana, were considered shoo-ins until they said abortion should be banned even when pregnancies result from rape. Both lost - in conservative states.

Nevertheless, there's still the potential that abortion could become a right without meaning for many. In addition to state restrictions, efforts to defund Planned Parenthood and block Medicaid funding threaten the poor. The nation is no closer to a consensus on abortion, virtually ensuring that the debate will still be raging 40 years from now.