Geopolitics/GlobalMarketAnalysis by Dr.Dr. Immanuel Fruhmann, Knight of the Order of St.George. European Order of the House of Habsburg-Lorraine: Dipl.Hypno/StressCoach_Author/Essayist_Dr.of Philosophy_Dr.of Education/HROD(UniGraz) Powered by SystemScience.ParadigmShift/SelfOrganisation_Philosophy of Mind/Science/Language.FlowCreativity.NewCybernetics.QuantumPhysics _MassPsychology.Psychogeography_Criticism of Ideology/Politics

Sonntag, 23. November 2014

Kurds
are not only fighting on the world's behalf against ISIS but they are also
fighting to establish their own sovereign country along with this at the same
time. The end result of all this Western backed Kurdish engagement against ISIS
in the Middle East is crystal clear, a sovereign Kurdistan. This is what the
Kurds are waiting for over many decades, this is what they are fighting for.
This is what is at stake behind the scenes. The new borderline of the then
newly established Kurdistan is not clear yet in its details, but many Kurds are
convinced that it will include large parts of Northern Iraq and the bulk of
Northern Syria as well as the suppressed Kurds in Eastern Turkey and
in Western Iran. These are the regions where the Peshmerga shed their blood in the war against ISIS and where the Kurds used to settle for centuries. So the fight of the Kurdish people for their own
sovereign country of Kurdistan is as intense as the fight of the Palestinians
for their own sovereign country. The only significant difference between these two intheir fight for souvereignity might be that in the1970ies the former prime minister (Bundeskanzler) of Austria Dr. Bruno Kreisky changed the status of the PLO, from a Jassir-Arafat-led international recognizedterror group to a political party representing a more or less sovereign Palestinian state, officiallyrecognizedby
Austria in giving the PLO an embassy in Vienna for this reason. This changes the political
landscape for the Palestinians. And some countries followed this Austrian
advance ofrecognizingthe PLO as political party.

The in the eyes of the world listed as terrorist organisation
marxist KurdishPKKwith
its leader Abdullah Öcalan, imprisoned with a life-sentence by the Turkish
court and seen by Kurds as living saint, has in its process of
establishing their own sovereign country still not yet the luck to get the
international support for changing its reputation and reaching its goal to be
the proponent for a sovereign Kurdistan. If the Kurds would just live in
Western Iran, it might be in the interest of the USA to destabilize Iran by
supporting the Kurds in their effort to establish a sovereign Sunni Kurdistan
on the territory of Shiite Iran. But since the majority of Kurds are
living in Eastern Turkey the spark would jump over the borders and would result
in a political firestorm out of control of theinitiators. So the lack of Western support of a sovereign Kurdistan
is because Turkey as a crucial partner in the NATO would be destabilized by
these efforts losing the Kurdish parts in its East. So the territorial
claim of a sovereign Kurdistan is affecting 4 countries (Turkey, Iran, Iraq,
Syria) and would destabilize the whole region, where the Kurds used to live
over centuries.

But nevertheless at the moment the KurdishPeshmergawhich are also the extension of the West in the region, getting
more and more international sympathy and support in their fight against ISIS, the new
bad guys, respectively terrorist group, which are out of control in
its brutality against all of the people including the civilians.

So
systemically it is necessary for stabilization of the whole region to
recognize the Kurds in their decades-long effort for their own sovereign
country. Otherwise the IS (Islamic State) in their brutality beyond imagination
fill the power vacuum, and this cannot be in the interest of any civilized
human being.

Donnerstag, 2. Oktober 2014

The current standoff in Hong Kong is just the latest manifestation
of a phenomenon most of us became very aware of in recent years. It is a
standoff between an enraged youth and the old establishment happening around
the world for several years now. In the Middle East it is known as Arab Spring.
Whether it happens in the Middle East or in East Asia it is always the same
pattern: On the one hand there is an authoritarian, corrupt, over-aged, male-dominated regime,
just interested in staying in charge at any cost and to work just for their own
benefit, suppressing all kinds of participation and democratization tendencies
with brutal force. On the other hand, there is an upheaval of the legions of
disenfranchised young together with supporting older generations who either are
without job perspectives or not feeling politically represented in the current
systems.

So it is not just a clash of generations
but also a clash of genders. The current crisis in Hong Kong shows it once
again crystal clear: a legion of youngsters of mixed-gender representing the
new age of participation, democratization, and civil society fighting for
their human rights (and especially women's rights), storm against the bastion of
old, male-dominated apparatchiks, in charge of everything relevant, suppressing
the voice of the people and trample on human rights as they always did. Because
the focus now lies on China I should use the term mandarins instead of
apparatchiks.

The momentum is about a change of
culture from of authoritarian, oppressing, and competition-based systems
relying on force and organized in male-dominated top-down structures into a
system of participation, cooperation, equality and bottom-up structures with
true democratization and representation as well as the respect of human
rights. One can be reminded of the 1968 hippie social revolution and their engagements. Even American football, the holy grail of sports in America, weren't spared from this worldwide developments of growing sensitivity and awareness. What was irrelevant all the time, the public now becomes more and more aware of: the long-term damages to the human brain caused by countless concussions when playing American football.

It is a perfect storm clashing on the old
fascist structures, relying on force, control and strict hierarchy. Not a single area of society is spared. It is a worldwide change
management process in the most holistic way one can imagine. It is a
paradigm shift happening right now, and we are all right in the middle of it.

Samstag, 13. September 2014

Many in the EU and especially those who hold powerful positions
for years complain of an "EU-fatigue" or a fatigue among the citizens
to participate in the political process, which is reflected in constantly
declining voter turnout.

And now since there are aspirations for sovereignty
resulting in the drawing of new borders in various regions within the EU, just
think of the imminent referendum on the secession of Scotland from the United
Kingdom, in which the Scots try to free themselves from the burden of having
been forced into the union with London for more than 300 years, or think of
this week's (9/11, 2014 ... note the fateful date for this event) in Barcelona,
where peaceful protest for independence of Catalonia from Spain took place with
1.5 million demonstrators on the streets of Barcelona. These events make
leaders and decision-makers within the EU worry, just as if they feared any
tendencies to self-determination within their own countries, which could be
stimulated because of the momentums in Scotland and Catalonia. Do the powerful
fear the voice of the people?

My position is, to respect the wish of the
people for self-determination and cultural identity represented in their
government, as long as it is consistent with human rights, which is beyond
dispute in the cases of Scotland and Catalonia in their strive for
independence. A crystal clear Yes to an independent Scotland and an independent
Catalonia, if there is a majority of people in each of their regions voting for
independence.

Rather, it is to be regarded as highly
problematic when, as in the case of the central government in Madrid, and their
rejection of the referendum for independence of Catalonia from Spain scheduled
for November 9, 2014. The desperate proclamation of the Spanish central
government in Madrid, declaring the Catalonian referendum for independence for
illegal, is seen to be highly anachronistic and just reflects Madrid's imperial
claims for further dominance over the rest of Spain and in particular over the
economic power house Catalonia.

On the contrary, it is only an expression
of democracy that individual regions have the governments they want and which
reflect them culturally, and that they do not have to accept the government as
a foreign rule they have out of anachronistic reasons from any colonial
heritage. My plea is crystal clear, and goes for the democratization and
self-determination of the people and takes a stand against repressive foreign
rule or archaic domination by governments which do not represent the majority
population anymore.

Even if regions like Scotland or
Catalonia, or others shown by the domino effect for self-determination within
the EU, after their separation from their former countries they belonged to
often in a long and hated forced marriage, don't decide to join the EU after
they became independent, this is to respect by decision-makers in the EU, if
they take the right of the majority population for self-determination
seriously.

Each of these cultural entities within
countries must be admitted to choose the government they want. However, it is
regarded as probable that, given the geographical location of regions like
Scotland and Catalonia within the European continent, these cultural units, if
they don't aspire to apply for full EU membership they will have close economic
and cultural ties with the remaining EU Member States. So, it's primarily all
about drawing new lines (borders) within the EU or about to hold close ties
with these regions like the EU has with the EU-EFTA collaboration with
Switzerland and Norway.

When it comes to non-EU members, the EU
seems to be far less squeamish, just think of the secession of Kosovo from the
Republic of Serbia. The Kosovo emerged only by massive intervention by the EU
and the USA, and so it could come to its rightful self-determination. A
tendency becomes visible when it comes to the process of readjustment of the
self-determination of the peoples that are under foreign rule, in the
resolution of the multiethnic state of Austria-Hungary into its respective
successor states and in the decolonization of many areas around the world from
its colonial powers. When Czechoslovakia peacefully dissolved into the Czech
Republic and in the Republic of Slovakia on the 1st of January 1993 this represents
a role-model for a peaceful and successful separation process of two
ethnicities and language groups.

Similarly to that, now also other ethnic
groups located within the EU ask for their self-determination, which is, of
course, to respect and to be hold in referendums for independent states, if
that's the will of the people. Potentially, there are still many break-ups and
detachments to come that go far beyond the EU, just think of that one third of
the population of Turkey are Kurds. The Kurds, working for the foundation of
their own soverain state since the beginning of the 20th century, are also
living in Syria, Iraq and Iran. But the boundaries are in many places only a
mirror of old and outdated power politics that are no longer tenable in the light
of self-determination of the people. If one looks further beyond the borders of
the EU, there are analog examples such as Chechnya, Transnistria, Palestine,
Tibet or Kashmir, just to name few.

Within Europe, there is South Tyrol, which
achieved at least through the efforts of Austria, a far-reaching
autonomy status within Italy, after it was annexed by Italy after the First
World War with the allowance of the Allies. Therefore there is no anticipated
need for an independent state of South Tyrol, in the case of South Tyrol today.
Another case is the Turkish part of Cyprus in the 1970s originated in a bloody separation
war from Greek Cyprus under the auspices of Turkey which holds a protecting
power.

A currently burning question is also the
bloody ethnic conflict in the Ukraine. In the light of self-determination it is
an actual question to which extend the regions within Ukraine with a majority
of Russian speaking people also have the to be given the choice for
self-determination, that means a status of autonomy within Ukraine, if not even
an "Anschluss" to Russia. But in the light of Vladimir Putin's claim
to support the self-determination of the Russian population in Ukraine, and to
be seen as credible and not to use double standards, Putin would require a
radical change of course in his attitude towards the self-determination of the
Chechen population in the North Caucasus. This self-determination Putin denies
to the Chechens with massive force, while he tries to enforce with heavy weaponry
the ethnic self-determination for the Russian population in Ukraine, since the
expected benefits of the new Russian land bridge between the Crimea and
mainland Russia through the construction of a fragile bridge over the Sea of
​​Azov as a link from Russia to the Crimea seems Putin not to be enough. The
blue print for the bloody take-over of territories with significant Russian
populations was Putin's war in Georgia 2008 in which large parts of Georgia's
territory were annexed by Russia. In any case, a violent intervention by
foreign countries should be rejected because they lack a free political
democratic process resulting in conducting referendums and accepting their
results.

Ergo, it should be pointed out that any
ethnicities integrated into
another country represents a special case, and needs to be respected and
represented by its country they live in and need to be given the right to
choose to express their feeling of being part or not to be part of the country
they live in, what can be dissolved, in giving them an autonomy status within
the countries they live in or they choose to establish their own soverain
country based on their cultural identity or they join a neighboring country
they feel affiliated to.

Because only the process of unleashing the
people from an unwanted community and this freeing of previously bound energy,
results in new potentials for dynamics in economic and cultural developments
for the given country. And thereof any necessary political collective
relaxation emerges which the region needs for its economic development. These
political relaxation processes are bottom-up and follow a different logic than
top-down processes of political decision-makers who try in vain for decades to
maintain traditional power structures by top-down measures. Here it would be
appropriate by the policy makers to pay attention to bottom-up processes of
cultural identity and to support them and to respect as much as they can, to
build self-determination as well as passion for politics, even if it thereby
results in new borders. The potential released from this stress decreasing
processes turns into the benefit for all people in the end. All these processes
of finding ethnic identities and new forms of political sovereignties are simpler
within the EU, which gives these specific regions the option to reorganize
themselves in new states and staying under the democratic and economic shelter
of the EU at the same time.

Freitag, 11. Juli 2014

From a systemic point of view it's interesting who will win the FIFA World Cup 2014. Will Messi mess it up? Or will Lahm unlike his name's meaning (lame) be fast enough. Will Jogi Löw has the right techniques as Germany's most influential Yogi at the moment? Whoever will win the FIFA World Cup 2014 - whether Argentina or Germany - either way the pope will win. Either the Argentinian-born current pope Francis or the German-born former pope Benedict XVI. We have to face that in the century-long history of popes we never had a period where there were two popes living at the same time, except for now. Besides the schisms now for the first time in history we are in this peculiar situation with two regularly elected recognized popes living at the same time: the current acting pope Francis and his retired predecessor Benedict XVI acting systemically through his presence from the shadows of the gardens of Castel Gandolfo close to Rome. Will the pope in charge with the pope's egregore support the Argentinian team more than the retired pope the German team? So from a certain point of view it's not just a battle of rivaling nations what we will experience soon in this final game on Sunday, but also a battle of the popes. One way or another the pope will win the game. Economically speaking we are observing on the one hand that the Argentinian economy is actually on the brink of default or at least in very deep trouble and on the other hand Germany's economy is doing remarkably well. So from a broader systemic meta-perspective, economy-wise Germany is supposed to win not just the race for world's best running economy but also for the World Cup 2014. On the other hand it's not to underestimate what the power of the metaphysical and religios backing of a current Argentinian pope residing in the Vatican means for the spirit of the Argentinian players in the final game. We will see it on Sunday how it will work out and if either a strong economy or a mighty religios backing will have won in the end...the result of the complexity of the systemic interaction of energy fields is hard to predict. From my analytical point of view Argentina is more likely to win. But as among others Marc Twain is reported: A prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.

Donnerstag, 15. Mai 2014

Democratization as process is not containable, but very contagious. Even though the many old-school leaders ruling their countries in the old corrupt style won't be happy to hear that, but their times are over and their days are counted. They used to rule their people with hegemony in a brutal and authoritarian way all these years based on violence and intimitation, but now their rule is over and new ways of governing based on participation and cooperation are establishing at the moment in many parts of the world. This may come via turbulent years of reorganisation in many countries who were used to endure their authoritarian regimes but now the people ask for more. They demand real democracies and protection of human rights and to live freely and prosper.

In my systemic estimation it's no accident that the focus on the Southern hemisphere via the FIFA world championship in 2010 in South Africa and now the one in Brazil in 2014 are beneficial for the world integration processes. This goes along with the balancing of powers coming from a one-sided dominance of the Northern hemisphere and it's structures. So when the world attention is concentrated via media on the Southern hemisphere it boosts integration and balancing processes in the world. After social unrests in Vietnam and Thailand, for Asia I expect further contagion in China, Malaysia, Cambodia, Brunei.

For the Middle East I foresee further uprising in Syria, Iran, Lebanon, and the Gulf States and in the long run in Saudi Arabia.

For greater Europe I expect that in the expansion of the crisis in Ukraine, the situation in Turkey located right in the systemic contagious (group)dynamic of being between Syria and Ukraine and their civil wars will deteriate and the Erdogan regime will fall in the coming months. And even though it might not be visible to everone by now, also Belarus and Russia will further resonate on the geopolitical change and happenings at their doorsteps in Ukraine and in a broader sense Turkey and Syria.

For Africa further unrest and revolution potential I see in Nigeria, Cameroon, Morocco and in particular in Algeria, which could survive the first round of the Arab spring.

For South America in Venezuela further democratization processes are to be expected, as well as in Brazil in particular. And for Europe in the closer sense and North America as well as Australia, New Zealand the processes of democratization are happening via certain scandals over which the mighty fall.

About the Author

Strategic Leadership Consultant, Certified Dipl. Hypnosis Trainer, Licensed Hypnosis and Stress Coach, Writer & Book Author for Decision Makers, Management Consultant, Philosopher, Adult EducationistKnight of the Order of St. George. A European Order of the House of Habsburg-Lothringen