Guardian writers' prediction 1st (This is not Daniel Taylor's prediction, but the average of our writers' tips)

Last season's position 1st

Odds on winning title 7-4

We will probably know more by the end of the month, when the transfer window clanks shut and the full extent of Manchester United's ambition is there for everyone to see, but for now there are probably two ways of looking at the club's summer business.

One is that the champions have assembled a squad that, once again, may have the right blend of wit and knowhow to win the league. They finished nine points clear last season, they know the processes involved and there are not too many people who would have predicted, by the first week of August, that the Glazer family had spent roughly the same on transfers as Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed al-Nahyan, sitting on a tenth of the planet's oil reserves, had with Manchester City.

But it is when you look at the wider issue, where the club would like to be and, specifically, the inability to bring in the penetrative, attacking, central midfielder that can take this team to a new level again, that it is tempting to wonder whether this is also shaping up to be the summer when the greatest challenge remaining for Ferguson just got even harder.

That challenge is to catch and overhaul Barcelona and spare themselves any more of the ordeals witnessed in the Stadio Olimpico in 2009 and, again, at Wembley last May, when television close-ups showed Ferguson in a way he had rarely been seen before. He looked flat, devoid of words, as if he had run out of things to say, zapped of the usual energy. Ferguson leant back in his seat, folded his arms and stared ahead in quiet contemplation as United suffered death by a thousand cuts. Or to be more precise, 777 passes. Almost 150 from Xavi, naturally.

As Ferguson has said, there is no reason to be ashamed if it is United's lot to be thought of as the second-best club side on Earth, particularly when they go into the season with authentic aspirations of winning a 20th title and enhancing their position as the most successful league team in England.

The problem for a club of United's size is that they should always be looking for vast rather than marginal improvement and, unless something changes, the various knockbacks for Samir Nasri and Wesley Sneijder are threatening to thwart real, significant progress. Barcelona, already the doyens of the fast, slick, pass-them-to-death football to which United aspire, have signed Alexis Sánchez and are greedily in the process of adding Cesc Fábregas. A team that put five past Real Madrid last season just got even better, whereas the paradox about United's near £50m outlay is that a legitimate case could be made that their first-choice XI is not, in fact, any stronger at all.

It is a strange set of circumstances because this has been a rare summer of spending under what United's supporters have come to know as Glazernomics, with a mere £14.5m (net) going on transfers in the six previous seasons. Yet Phil Jones, signed from Blackburn Rovers for £16m, is really a player for the future while Ashley Young, lured from Aston Villa for £14m, will presumably start the season as back-up for Nani. Then there is David de Gea, signed from Atlético Madrid for £18.3m to challenge Anders Lindegaard for the right to be known as United's first-choice goalkeeper but so young, three months short of turning 21, it would be unreasonable to expect the same control and authority as the now-retired Edwin van der Sar had.

De Gea has looked a little hesitant at times in pre-season – nothing too serious but enough to be noticed – and will inevitably make a few mistakes. The important thing is how he reacts because it is his form, replacing a man twice his age, that will probably matter more than any other player's when it comes to determining whether the championship trophy remains at Old Trafford.

It constitutes a lot of pressure for a 20-year-old embarking on a new life, in a new country with a new language, and Ferguson may think there are benefits in starting the more experienced Lindegaard when the manager's 25th anniversary season begins at West Bromwich Albion on Sunday week. Lindegaard was one of the players who stood out on the club's summer tour of the United States. De Gea, however, will play in the Community Shield against Manchester City on Sunday.

The squad is not without its flaws and, as Barcelona demonstrated so ruthlessly, still at least one level shy of greatness. Wayne Rooney, however, should be less erratic, free of the turmoil that surrounded him for the first few months of the previous campaign. Javier Hernández has had a year to learn about English football, passing all tests with distinction. Dimitar Berbatov may not be selected for enough games to emulate his 20-goal haul of last season, but the early evidence is that he has not suffered the mental fragility that many anticipated after the Champions League final. Danny Welbeck, returning from a loan arrangement at Sunderland, is a year older and wiser. Rio Ferdinand remains susceptible to injury but there is plenty of back-up in the form of Chris Smalling and Jones, while Jonny Evans is young enough at 23 to be considered a player who has had a blip rather than one in decline.

Ferguson is certainly not short of options, with seven different strikers and five centre-halves. The problem, in short, lies in between. However you jumble the names it is difficult to pick any permutation of four United midfielders and think of it as a quartet that can form the basis of a Champions League-winning side.

Michael Carrick turned 30 last week and maybe this is the time when he starts to exert more influence. Except we have been saying that about Carrick for some time now. One suspects he will always be that stylish passer who never quite had it within himself to dictate big matches. Too often he plays the ball and stays still, whereas the best players in his position, such as Xavi and Iniesta and Fábregas, give and go, release then move, always looking for the return pass.

United otherwise have surprisingly few players with the ability to prise open opposition defences, especially now Ryan Giggs is heading towards his 38th birthday and has to be used more sparingly. Tom Cleverley, according to Ferguson, is a "strong possibility", but we have heard United's manager say this sort of thing before, often to encourage a player before a long spell on the edges.

What United really need is someone with control and sophistication, the ability to make the killer pass and the quality that Ferguson cherishes most in a midfielder: penetration. Darren Fletcher, for all his influence, is not that man, and continues to be troubled with health issues. Darron Gibson has become the player the Old Trafford crowd dislike the most and should probably try to rekindle a transfer before it descends into voluble dissent. Paul Pogba and Ravel Morrison, from the FA Youth Cup-winning team, have rare talents, but this may be one season too early for them. United, in hindsight, missed a trick last summer. David Silva, then of Valencia and now of Manchester City, would have ticked every box.

Instead, the United chief executive, David Gill, submitted an offer for Arsenal's Samir Nasri in June, in the knowledge it would almost certainly be repelled. His fears were proven correct. Arsenal not only rejected it out of hand but did not deem it worthy of an official reply. United have not entirely given up but, remembering their own opposition when Gabriel Heinze tried and failed to defect to Liverpool in 2007, they appreciate Arsenal's position.

For now, Ferguson's thoughts are more prominently with Wesley Sneijder, even though it would mean breaking the club's policy of not spending big money on players who are 26 or above, on the basis that all new signings should have a resale value. Sneijder is available from Internazionale but turned 27 in June and, as such, not everyone at Old Trafford is convinced a move for him makes financial sense. The player, in turn, has not been offered the salary he wants and Ferguson sounded noticeably impatient when he confided to one ally last weekend that "if he [Sneijder] wants to come, he must accept our contract offer. If not, we have other options in mind. We're done talking."

The alternative is a team that can win the league but seem no closer, and possibly even further away, to giving Barcelona a more credible challenge. Sneijder alone would not bridge the gulf but it would be a start and, for that alone, the next few weeks should tell us a lot more about United, the Glazer family and the scale of their ambitions.