Weekend Quagmire: UPDATED Friday afternoon (May 8)

There's a significant threat for flooding rains this weekend. Latest projections and actual surface data show little change from the expected pattern. The main uncertainty still lies in how far south the front will get before stalling. Over-running to the north of the front will make for most of the rain on the cool side of the boundary, where we will be.

The Friday HPC map shown here paints a 5" rain max right along the Red River Valley. While the location of the "bullseye" will change with each forecast, it seems the elements are coming together as expected:

High moisture content in the air

Lifting source (front)

Weak steering currents (slow storm movement and front stalling)

In this case I truly hope I'm wrong but the odds are against it based on what the data shows.

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