Game 2010.026: Angels at Tigers

The Tigers wrap up what seemed to be a very quick home stand. They won both series already, and a win today would be icing on the cake. Of course with the ace on the mound for Detroit the team and fans are looking for something more than a solid effort on get-away day.

Justin Verlander did a good job against the Twins in keeping them off the scoreboard. He would have had 6 shutout innings were it not for a Ryan Raburn error that allowed an unearned run.

But even with the nearly 6 innings, he went over 120 pitches for the second consecutive game. For the season he is at 4.42 pitchers/plate appearance. The league average is typically in the 3.7-3.9 range. While it seems like more pitches are being fouled off, this rate is only 2% higher than his career norms which means just 7 additional fouls over the 5 starts.

Jered Weaver takes the ball for the Angels. He held the Tigers to 2 runs over 7 innings in Anaheim. His 34:6 strike out to walk ratio is particularly impressive (and daunting). He’s allowed 5 homers this year, 4 of them to right handers. This probably doesn’t mean a lot, but in his 5 starts the leadoff batter is 0 for 5 with 4 strike outs.

His AB’s and Runs say a lot about the Tigers offense as a whole, but he sure is hitting the ball. Can he keep this up all year? Nobody knows, and anyone who says they know is full of crap. Perhaps he’s starting hot, and Grandy is starting cold and this whole thing will even out. Nobody knows and all we can do is look at this small sample size and be thankful he’s producing. Regardless, so far in this young season, A-Jax is proving his worth. I hope we can finish the sweep!!

That’s too bad. He doesn’t deserve that. I wish him a speedy recovery.

Jeff (the other one)

May 2, 2010 at 1:25 pm

While I was supportive of the trade and am glad that Jackson’s doing as well as he has, his numbers are based on a ridiculously high BABIP. He’s going to come back to earth — not drop to .230 or anything, but he’ll have more normal stats. The press will treat it as a slump, but it will just be regression to the mean on BABIP.

Mark in Vegas

May 2, 2010 at 1:14 pm

Somebody commented before that Rayburn would not be playing in the outfield for Verlander’s next start after he dropped another fly ball. Coincidently Rayburn is out of the lineup today. Does anybody think Verlander has any control over the lineup for his starts?

Tigers Fan in Toronto

May 2, 2010 at 1:18 pm

Curtis who??????

Allen

May 2, 2010 at 1:38 pm

Hey does anyone know how tall Brennan Boesch is? I looked on ESPN, Baseball-Reference and MLB.com, and two have him at 6-4 and one at 6-6. And Rod Allen keeps saying he is 6-6. Regardless, he is huge.

PHT in HK

May 2, 2010 at 2:19 pm

Can someone please define BABIP for those of us dinosaurs who are ignorant of all of the new statistical categories?

jason

May 2, 2010 at 2:26 pm

Batting average on balls in play. Here is the formula I found.

(hits – hr) / (AB – SO – HR + SacFlies)

PHT in HK

May 2, 2010 at 3:20 pm

Thanks, but why is this important? The bottom line is what matters. Either the guy gets a hit or not. Either he gets on base or not. I can see giving credit for sacrifice flies, but why discount home runs?

billfer

May 2, 2010 at 3:34 pm

It helps to account for luck on balls in play. The homer is a homer no matter the defense, and strikeouts and walks were never going to result in hits. So you look at what a batter (or a pitcher) does on balls in play. BABIP numbers typically revert to a normal range as the sample size goes up. Players with a lot of speed will often have a slightly higher BABIP because of their ability to beat out infield hits. And hitters who hit lots of line drives will generally have higher babips because about 75% of line drives result in hits.

BABIPS that are way out of whack from “normal” are likely to regress. As Porcello’s BABIP drops his numbers will look better. When Austin Jackson’s babip drops his will look worse.

PHT in HK

May 2, 2010 at 3:44 pm

Thanks for the lesson in modern statistical analysis!

jason

May 2, 2010 at 2:21 pm

Enjoying watching JV thus far today. We need to get Weaver out of there quick, and get to their bullpen.

Ken in Vegas

May 2, 2010 at 2:23 pm

I need to see something from Avila. Anything.

Joey C.

May 2, 2010 at 2:27 pm

The bottom 3rd getting it done! And JV looks unhittable today.

Coleman

May 2, 2010 at 2:30 pm

B.O.O.B. rally! Rockin’ Ramon comes through!

Ken in Vegas

May 2, 2010 at 2:30 pm

Awesome. Always tough to break Weaver’s confidence. I think we may have him.

Joey C.

May 2, 2010 at 2:30 pm

Weaver looks like he’s about to meltdown after that run scoring wild pitch.

Joey C.

May 2, 2010 at 2:36 pm

I know he’s smoking hot right now and the hits are probably accounting for the lack of Ks the last few games, but I really think that Jackson has matured in the last month and is being far more selective. He fell behind 0-2 that last at bat and Weaver through a good breaking ball out of the zone, and I think a lot of free swinging hitters would have swung at. I expected Jackson to swing at it. But he didn’t and he went on to make contact and move Ramon to 3rd base. I think that K rate is going to continue to drop.

Ken in Vegas

May 2, 2010 at 2:41 pm

I agree. Watching Jackson’s at bats isn’t nearly as frustrating as his stats would imply. Looks more disciplined than Laird at least.

Ken in Vegas

May 2, 2010 at 2:38 pm

That’s a pretty short leash they have on Weaver. Didn’t look very happy about it on his way out.

Joey C.

May 2, 2010 at 2:45 pm

He had thrown 107 pitches. I’m sure that had a lot to do with it.

Tigers Fan in Toronto

May 2, 2010 at 2:42 pm

Tigers firing on all cylinders today…..=sweep.

Joey C.

May 2, 2010 at 2:43 pm

Other than being a lefty, Boesch reminds me of a young Mark McGwire. His build at least, and his insane bat speed. I mean this kid looks like he’s gonna tear the cover off the ball with every swing.

Kevin in Dallas

May 2, 2010 at 2:53 pm

Boesch’s age makes it more likely that he may be a legitimate MLer and this is not Chris Shelton’ish.

Joey C.

May 2, 2010 at 2:57 pm

He’s also supposed to be quite an athlete–above average speed…and we’ve all seen the arm.

Coleman

May 2, 2010 at 3:04 pm

I don’t like defensively replacing him with Kelly–I think it’s more important to give Boesch the experience out there.

fuprete

May 2, 2010 at 2:44 pm

I’m holding my breath. This is the point in almost every game when Verlander gets into trouble. I hope he proves me wrong this time.

Coleman

May 2, 2010 at 2:48 pm

On a sadder note, apparently Joe Mauer may miss the entire series with Detroit with a bruised heel (sniff).

Kevin in Dallas

May 2, 2010 at 2:55 pm

I did a twitter trend search on him last night, the Twins twitter nation is not very forgiving of his injury. My guess is small sample size (bunch of immature kids using twitter), but I was a bit surprised that anyone has anything negative to say about Mauer period.

Vince in MN

May 2, 2010 at 3:39 pm

A lot of Twins fans are like that. If Nathan blows one save a year, many want to trade him.

Smith

May 2, 2010 at 8:46 pm

Minnesota fans in general are quite fair weather, and temperamental. Twins, Vikings, etc.

Smith

May 2, 2010 at 2:50 pm

JV is unconscious. That’s 16 in a row he’s retired.

fuprete

May 2, 2010 at 2:50 pm

I am in California watching on the Angels network. Did anyone else besides me hear their color man use the “f ..” word earlier? Did I really hear that right?

Joey C.

May 2, 2010 at 2:51 pm

What inning?

Ken in Vegas

May 2, 2010 at 2:53 pm

I’m watching it on the Angels network, but I didn’t hear that. What inning did it happen in? I will rewind on the DVR.

fuprete

May 2, 2010 at 3:03 pm

I may have heard wrong. Just at top of 4th inning when they were talking about Trivia question of the game. I am beginning to think he said “Buck” …….that may be his name. I don’t know them that well.

Randolph

May 2, 2010 at 2:51 pm

Now this is the Verlander we’ve come to know and love.

Tigers Fan in Toronto

May 2, 2010 at 2:53 pm

The month of April must over because JV’s pitching is lights out!

Kevin in Dallas

May 2, 2010 at 2:59 pm

I think I’d like to send AJax one half of a pendant heart.

Joey C.

May 2, 2010 at 3:01 pm

Haha! I’m sure you’re not alone my friend.

Smith

May 2, 2010 at 2:59 pm

A-Jax is a freakin stud! What a great at bat! Took that breaking ball twice low in the zone for strikes. Fouled off a fastball, and waited on that breaking pitch again. Got it, and lined it into center. Excellent hitting.

fuprete

May 2, 2010 at 2:59 pm

Jackson is making a bid for Rookie of the Century. He doesn’t just get the hits, he gets them when needed.

Ken in Vegas

May 2, 2010 at 3:05 pm

I like winning comfortably, but the drawback is that I have no shot of seeing a Valverde celebration.

Tigers Fan in Toronto

May 2, 2010 at 3:18 pm

Six games over .500….nice start…..good momentum going into Minny.

Smith

May 2, 2010 at 3:19 pm

17 of the last 18 batters have started off 0-1.

Verlander is in his groooove.

Smith

May 2, 2010 at 3:20 pm

22 batters retired in a row. He’s putting on a clinic!

Dr. Detroit

May 2, 2010 at 5:23 pm

Just checked out the box score and highlights on ESPN. That change-up he threw to that lefty, low, tailing away and dropping, was just filthy. Those guys are popping out of their shoes and helmets trying to swing at that. When he is on, when he has his 3 pitches working like that, he has the best stuff since Pedro Martinez had in the mid-late 90′s.

Joey C.

May 2, 2010 at 3:22 pm

Just in absolute control. Justin is doing whatever the hell he wants out there. Here’s to his setting the tone for the rest of the rotation. I’m starting to really like what I’m seeing from this group.

Ken in Vegas

May 2, 2010 at 3:22 pm

This reminds me of his no hitter. Smells blood and throws 99 mph in the 8th inning. It’s like he’s just getting warmed up at 100 pitches.

Smith

May 2, 2010 at 3:27 pm

Great AB by Avila. An 8 pitch walk. He’s too good to slump for much longer. He’ll come around.

Randolph

May 2, 2010 at 3:29 pm

Verlander was putting on a clinic today, wow that was fun to watch.

ouchudied

May 2, 2010 at 3:33 pm

Hopefully he still is… they are bringing him back to start the 9th

Kevin in Dallas

May 2, 2010 at 3:36 pm

Freaking WOW. Beautiful.

Joey C.

May 2, 2010 at 3:42 pm

Man. That’s too bad. He really wanted to close that one out. Almost made a play on that hit up the middle too.

Joey C.

May 2, 2010 at 3:45 pm

Um…this one isn’t over yet

Vince in MN

May 2, 2010 at 3:56 pm

No problem. After seemingly countlessyears of 9th inning meltdowns, I am strangely relaxed this season.

I missed most of the game but noticed Verlander had a very high percentage of strikes. Good things happen when you throw strikes. I hope he has finally found his rythym.

Keith (Mr. X)

May 2, 2010 at 3:49 pm

Sweep!

Joey C.

May 2, 2010 at 3:52 pm

Nice! What a great home stand!

Unfortunately we’re not getting much help from the Indians today. Of course the good news is that the Indians will drop a game. And the Chisox got absolutely crushed by the Yankees.

Randolph

May 2, 2010 at 3:56 pm

That one’s not over yet, maybe the Twinkies bullpen will blow it.

Latest Comments

jud I know it was only an exhibition game ...but...I don't know if I can take that much hysterical laughter from

Coleman http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=12413132&categoryid=2521705
On the other hand, Verlander is "confident" and "ready to go," so there's that.

Smoking Loon Good article, Kevin.
Did anyone else have the thought last year that perhaps the biggest problem with Verlander was... predictability? He

Kevin in Dallas Neither does this story.
http://www.mlive.com/tigers/index.ssf/2015/02/detroit_tigers_bring_back_righ_1.html

Kevin in Dallas This picture does not instill a whole bunch of confidence.
http://www.mlive.com/tigers/#/0

Coleman Check out this one: http://www.mlive.com/tigers/index.ssf/2015/02/report_relief_pitcher_joba_cha.html#incart_more_sports
He shaved the beard! And looks like he dropped a few pounds too.

StorminNorman$ http://m.tigers.mlb.com/news/article/110232762/joba-chamberlain-signs-with-detroit-tigers
low price, potential high yield... or maybe not. Whatever the case, Joba certainly said all the right things.

Jim EggersUSMC I concur K in D, am hoping for a good but not great season from JV. Seemed to me he

StorminNorman$ Great info/research Kevin! One point to clarify and factor into the analysis: JV did make $20M last year, but

Coleman Verlander had core muscle surgery last January. Could it be, at his age, and with the type of pitcher he