Three Charts Your Stockbroker Won't Want You To See

While every long-only manager and jobbing stockbroker is hard at work twisting the simple logic of 'but, but Central Banks will print and save the world' into a much more appetizing 'US decoupling, cleanest-shirt, ignore Europe, earnings, profits, money-on-the-sidelines' euphemism, we note that the following three charts from UBS suggest that things are not quite as rosy as one might believe - whether or not Ben speaks monetarily this week. Between consensus growth expectations rolling over, the analyst upgrade/downgrade ratio turning negative once again, and recent changes in US growth remain positively ecstatic relative to global/regional changes; it would appear hope is a powerful (and hallucinatory) drug (as is QE kool-aid).

The progression of consensus earnings growth estimates is rolling over for 2012 and stalling for 2013...

and the upgrade/downgrade ratio is turning back down (less upgrades than downgrades) and changing trend...

and the US remains an extremely optimistic unch over the past 3 months for its earnings growth forecast change relative to considerable drops among most of the world's economies...

So while the hopes and prayers that 'fundamentals are a figment of everyone's imagination and the only thing that matters is central banking largesse' remains, the next time you hear someone trying to spin some fundamental earnings growth basis for buying-and-holding now, slap them gently and tell them to stop deny-deny-deny abnegation and admit they are as addicted as the rest of the market to the elixir of nominal equity strength - the central bank printing button.

In the summer of 1885 William R. Travers, prominent NYC businessman and builder of Saratoga Race Track, was vacationing in Newport, Rhode Island. He pointed out a long line of beautiful yachts tied up in the harbor. When he was informed that they all belonged to Wall Street brokers he simply asked, " Where are their clients' yachts?".

"Mid-30s is also when people are just before their mid-life crisis. They have more or less found out who they are, they can sort of see the limit of their potential, and it leads to disenchantment, disillusionment. 'I will not become the next Richard Branson', they realise. "At the same time they see that all good intentions aside, the world is tough place, and you need to be tough to survive and succeed. This is the age when you see people suddenly become serious. They have lost their innocence.

How so many brilliant, arrogant, super-talented young people get abused, sucked dry, burned out and then tossed aside by corporations and banks. In the early days of capitalism it seems the game was to exploit the less gifted; miners, factory workers etc. Today it's about taking advantage of talent. People are used, then discarded. Especially these days with the crisis. Fear rules supreme. You can get fired any moment, five minutes and you're gone.

"For psychologists like me the world of finance is very interesting, if only in purely clinical terms. You're a CEO and you pay yourself £8m. Now, look at the kind of organisation you need to put in place in order to make that amount … It's almost dirty.

"It gets more interesting still when your company has failed on a range of issues, and at the end of the year you still pay yourself those £8m. There's an outcry but you say: 'it's in my contract'. Now, take a step back, how has that £8m become so important to you that you can't even see why you shouldn't get them? Apparently your need for the money is so strong you stop registering the anger you provoke.

"Those CEOs and managing directors at banks with their millions … They deserve our pity, really. They are the victims of their own twisted minds. And it will bring them down. Whether you are a paedophile or pervert or control freak or psychopath; sooner or later a twisted mind will turn on itself.

amoral bordering on the immoral

"It's almost a perversion. The CEOs such as Fred Goodwin and Jamie Dimon and the like. They present themselves as to the outside world as posh and erudite and sophisticated; as supermen. But they are just like you and me, with similar needs and fears. We shouldn't fall for their spiel. .......they are not worth millions

A Stockbroker is someone who gets fools to easily part with their money with the use of advanced degree, reporting of profit and loss statements that are fraduulent, and with the backing of the media, corporations, and pure ignorance. They resemble reptiles in many facets and enjoy raping and pillaging based on lies and theft.

With all the respect in the world...these charts would be great and useful if the markets corresponded to the economy. It's all backwards now. The ratings agencies will start upgrading based on bailouts awarded and debt ceilings being raised.

Is is truly amazing to see how so many are waiting on so few ( well connected ) to say "if the sun will shine tomorrow again". And after this fact, no one should question, do the people waiting believe in God. As for sure they DO.

With the emerging markets beginning to rally, I expect the large multi-nationals that dominate the U.S. stock market indicies to continue their rallies as well. Profits don't have to improve hardly at all; they only have to hold up, which I think that they will, as the non-European world goes about it's daily business of growing and thriving.

Today is another most hated stock ramp day. Anyone want to take a look at airline rates and think people are going to travel? Doesn't hurt Priceline though. Tickets that were $250 are now $500, Priceline soars.

Fucking Facebook is on a tear. Lulu, CMG, all the greatest hits are at least 2% gainers for no apparent reason other than, "THE ECONOMY SUCKS, MORE STIMULUS"

Apple announces they are going to give their shitty employees at Apple stores a raise and the stock soars. I thought paying employees more is supposed to tank a stock because it means less profit. OH YEAH I FORGOT, everyone will work at an Apple store and buy Apple shit, ECONOMIC PROBLEMS SOLVED!!!!

We will never have a correction because the Fed will just step in and buy stocks, causing all the momo traders to buy so they don't miss an uptick rally. I'm having fun looking at all the parabolic 2 day charts. It's like praising the picture the neighbors retard gives you.

DAMMIT! I MISSED $5 TO THE UPSIDE OF FACEBOOK, I GOTTA BUY IT NOW SO I DON'T MISS THE RALLY!!!!

That is the only fundamental left in the market. Not missing a rally. Doesn't matter if it's bullshit. At least oil didn't go to $90 today, doesn't matter because gas is still selling for the same price as it was when oil was $105.

Either the insiders already know QE3 is going to be $2 trillion or they are really, really, stupid. I still don't get why stocks would take off before the money is handed out. Wouldn't you want to profit more off the free cash? Driving stocks up just makes it more expensive to buy more shares with Benny Bux.

True that. Friday and today have seen melt-ups on all the mo-mo favourites, on half normal volume. Is it going to play this way all the way to the grand utterings of Banana Ben? Sadly, it probably will.

1) Its possible many Americans who used to do summer vacations in Europe are now staying in the U.S.

2) The ADR/RevPAR/Occupancy measures are stats of hotels still in business, no? They ignore the fact that when X% of hotels have gone under during the recession, this may show a slight increase in stats for the others, since the outlying low-occupancy and low-ADR hotels are now not included in the figure. Also, hotel guests who were at a failing hotel now transfer their business to other hotels.

(Therefore ADR and occupancy RATES may go up, but the total number of hotel rooms sold in the U.S. could go down, and revenues not look anything like pre-recession levels)

I want to see a comparison of industry revenues pre and post recession. If a Courtyard by Marriott closed and the business transferred to another Marriott brand, is this an improvement in Marriott's bottom line? No, but the stats suggest that the occupancy and ADR increased!

3) How many Americans are starting to spend again thinking that the economy is going to roar back and their home's value will skyrocket? What happens if/when they experience a return to frugality? (especially as food and gas prices rise in response to the next round of QE?)

4) Smith Travel Research. Who are their clients? Hotels. Something to keep in mind...

Markets are gamed. There's nothing to invest in. FB is gamed and shorts are squeezed. That's a pretty obvious play. So much attention and heat on that crapola of a story. They've lost the IPO charade for good. IPOs are being cancelled all over the world. Markets are dead.

Nobody is shorting oil which is why oil is not flying higher. Because the economy sucks and oil is too expensive even at $80 for a decent recovery.

The insiders are just playing with machines. Retail is still out and won't come back.

I'm seriously starting to doubt that any QE announcement would lift spirits either. Too late, too many have caught on and it doesn't help the economy.

Austerity and pain are coming and that's what the bond market is saying for a while.

I agree, money talks and bullshit walks. Your definition of money is innacurate, however. Anything vaugely related to or connected to fiat currency is bullshit. Silver and gold are money. Tangibles are stores of wealth, not one's and zero's in some computer somewhere. Paper investments are worth exactly the paper they are printed on. Austerity is not coming to the US. Never will happen. The powers that be will print the dollar out of viability long before they even consider austerity measures. The US has enjoed a nice long run as the world reserve currency. Nothing lasts forever, though.

“The illusion of freedom will continue as long as it's profitable to continue the illusion. At the point where the illusion becomes too expensive to maintain, they will just take down the scenery, they will pull back the curtains, they will move the tables and chairs out of the way and you will see the brick wall at the back of the theater.” ? Frank Zappa

If you listen to Robotrader they stopped buying shoes so they could have more money to spend at ULTA.

In the real world nobody is buying anything. Malls are ghost towns, Sears cashiers tell you they sell about $120 a day. But corporate profits have ever been better. Either people are sneaking in when nobody can see them and buying billions in merchandise, or the corporate books are full of shit.

at least Johnson is a well run corporation and actually makes marketable and profitable products, unlike most of the garbage you spew on a daily basis.

It was very funny that you were gone for most of the last month when stocks weren't doing well. But once the low volume benny bux rampfest started, you are here to tell everyone about how well the momo trades are doing.

If I step in shit, I try to clean it off. You are the asshole that tracks it all over the house ruining the carpet.

Stockbrokers are the lowest form of life- makes stereo and used car salesmen look like saints.

Whats the worst a best buy guy can do to you? sell you a underpowered stereo? the add on warranty? big deal. Used car guy maybe sells you a car overpriced a couple of grand. Big picture- not going to take you down.

On the other hand a stockbroker can screw up your retirement plans permanently, needlessly expose you to risk well over 100% of your investment. Make you as broke as when you were in College.

My stock broker gave me a great tip, so I bought the stock. Two weeks later the stock was up 20% and he said "it's got room to run", so I bought a shitload more! Low and behold he was right and the stock went up another 20%! This time he said "This things got legs and is only beginning it's real trend higher", so I bet it all! The stock only went up another 10% this time and I got a bit nervous with my life savings on the table so I called and told my broker to sell. This time he said "to who"?

I got my Series 7 back in 1990. I hated being called a "stockbroker", and from day #1, thought of myself as an adviser. Bought and sold stocks unsolicited from my growing client list as a loss leader: doing it for cost and no commission. Offered and actively managed mutual funds - and when I was recruited by a national firm, went with them to work directly FOR my clients.

They pay me directly - no conflict of interest. No selling. No bullshit. They hire me - I am responsible for their holdings.

The quintessential question for every newly minted broker is this;

"Now, it's what's right for you, vs. what's right for your clients."

My Father said that to me when I called him to tell him I passed the 7.

Those words rang in my ear each time I sat across the table/desk from a client. Still do.

We are a long way from a collapse. We have Bernanke who will print money till it absolutely becomes a serious problem. e.g bond market collapse, and even then he will print more to buy the debt of the US.