Guess the Price Round 5: 101 Years Old in Phinney Ridge

It’s finally time for a new round of “Guess the Price.” Here’s how the game works. I’ll describe a home that’s currently on the market, giving you as many pros and cons as I can, and you guess what the final sale price will be when/if it sells.

Be sure to enter your real email address into the form when you leave your guess in the comments, because the winner gets a $25 gift card to the restaurant chain of their choosing. Don’t worry, I’m the only one that can see the emails that are entered. The winner is the person whose guess is closest to the final sale price, above or below. If there is a tie, whoever guessed closer to the correct closing date will be declared the winner. Contest closes to entries at midnight the morning of March 17th, or when the home goes pending, whichever comes first.

This round’s home hit the market yesterday with an asking price of $439,950. This is not the first time it has been for sale recently—it was originally listed on October 2, went pending on October 9, but was delisted on October 12. It was relisted on October 29, had a price drop on November 12, went pending again on November 17, but was delisted again on November 28.

The home is neither bank-owned nor a short sale. It is positioned in the northern portion of Seattle’s Phinney Ridge neighborhood, where the median price of single-family homes sold in January was $456,000.

Built in 1912, this 1.5-story home (with basement) sports 5 bedrooms, two full bathrooms, and one three-quarter bathroom. The main floor and the basement each have two bedrooms, while the upper floor has the master suite. The three-quarter bathroom is in the basement. 2,070 of the home’s square feet are above ground, with an additional 540 in the basement.

The exterior of the home looks to have been painted relatively recently. The yard seems reasonably well-manicured. Off the alley in the back there is a small “detached storage shed/small garage” that looks like it would fit one car.

Inside, the paint job looks somewhat new, with simple beige walls and white trim throughout most of the home. The hardwood floors on the main level appear to be in good condition, as does the carpet on the second level. According to a Redfin Tour Insight, the second story is a “converted attic space.” The listing describes it as a “top floor master with office and ensuite bath,” and from the photos you can see that the ceiling height is somewhat short.

The kitchen is relatively plain, with tiled countertops and somewhat dated cabinets. The appliances look decent, though not very fancy, and the dishwasher appears to be rather small. Counter space is also limited.

There’s little yard to speak of on the 3,000 square foot lot, with just a small patch of grass in the front and the back mostly taken up with paved parking for two or three cars.

The basement sports the home’s only fireplace and a second kitchen all in one open room. From the photograph at left, the three-quarter bathroom appears to be somewhat awkwardly located, up half a flight of stairs.

Overall, this home looks like it has been nicely maintained and updated throughout the years. It appears to be priced well for its location, size, and condition, although one does wonder why it has fallen out of pending twice recently. With the ongoing inventory shortage this year (there are just 8 houses for sale in all of Phinney Ridge right now), now may be the time for the sellers of this home to finally close the deal.

Summary of 304 NW 74th St.

Pros

desireable location

nicely updated historic home

off-street parking

detached garage / shed

tall ceilings on main level

Cons

dated kitchen, small dishwasher

limited counter space

short ceilings upstairs

basement is “non-conforming” (i.e. no egress)

So, what say you? How much will this home sell for, and when will it sell?

[Update – 2013/03/01 @ 4:00 PM]
This contest is already closed to entries, as the home went pending just 10 minutes ago!

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About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

I wonder if they were renting out the house and had a lease that made financing difficult? The listing mentioned that it was a good rental and that it was vacant; not something that I usually notice in the public listings.

RE:The Tim @ 13 –
Yep – when I saw this one yesterday I felt that they might be pricing it a bit low to garner multiple bids. I am so happy that we found a place last year, before this madness ramped up (barely).

Let’s all hope Bernanke keeps on printing enough magic dollars to keep this house of cards standing. If those presses ever slow down, the house will sell the next time around for $265K

The political clowns are all pointing fingers at each other, and no one is willing to take responsibility for having made the decisions that led to this horrible mess. And things are just getting started. Wait until we print for a few more years. You’ll be staring straight upward from inside a toilet bowl looking at Mr. Bernanke’s anus in the process of making, yet another, magical helicopter drop.

Here’s what I don’t get about this listing. If you’re the seller, wouldn’t it be in your best interests to leave the home on the market for at least a full weekend, to get as much exposure as possible? Going on-market on a Thursday and accepting an offer before the weekend even starts just doesn’t seem like the ideal strategy.

I wouldn’t give 25 bucks for this photoshopped steaming pile of ugly renovation (Czech sky and all) if you moved it to Bermuda and threw in a complementary beach.

I might live there if someone offered it to me for free.

Seattle–you are so delusionary. Your sh!tte century old housing is ugly, worn out, and without any redeeming value, except that banks want to take all of your money so that you may have a ridiculously overpriced roof over your head, and they may steal your income until the year 2043.

GTFO. I thought you people had college degrees that made you smarter than this.

Here’s what I don’t get about this listing. If you’re the seller, wouldn’t it be in your best interests to leave the home on the market for at least a full weekend, to get as much exposure as possible? Going on-market on a Thursday and accepting an offer before the weekend even starts just doesn’t seem like the ideal strategy.

Sometimes, when you’re ready to leave a home and move on, strategy is secondary to the great feeling of liberation that comes when you’re done. The process of having a house for sale is not fun( if you live in it). There’s ideal strategy and there’s the overwhelming sentiment to just sell the thing.

RE:The Tim @ 22 –
We toured an open house today where the agent indicated that the seller had instructed them to move ahead with the first strong offer that came through, rather than wait through the weekend and try to generate multiple offers. Had only been on the market for a few days.

Of course, we’ve certainly seen a lot of sellers looking to elicit multiple offers as well. Maybe it’s just a matter of seller ethic.

I’ve seen this game before. If that is as described, the price will not be less than $500k, probably $520. I went through this a half dozen times last year before picking up one that was overpriced to start and then wrangled them down as the year was getting long in the tooth and they had to move.

The odd rental comment is because this house has been a rental for years. The guy who owns it just wants to unload it, and I’m not surprised he jumped at the first offer that he got.

We live in the hood. Many young families (either pregnant or with small kids) looked at the house. This block is filled with many young children (none older than 10, it seems) and pregnant women, so adding another family would be nice.

By the way, the floors are not hardwood. They are laminate. The house looks nicer in the pictures than in person. I’m guessing the final sales price will be 465,000.

Wow, looking at the price history of the house it sold for 439,000 in March 2006, so if it went pending that quick with a listing price of 439,950 my guess is it’s at “2006” or even “2007” price. Maybe it’s been updated some between then and now… as the “public records” in the redfin listing for the house show that it’s 4 BR 1 BA.

Maybe they didn’t let the listing run through the weekend because there was some kind of condition relating to the offer that was made – i.e. “offer (maybe higher than asking price) expires now (or in 24 hours) if you don’t accept it immediately”. Maybe that would be a good strategy for avoiding multiple offer scenarios for those who are so opposed to them.

I don’t know if I’d describe a house which has no trace of its historical exterior covering intact and looks for all the world like a tract home in Bothell from the outside as “nicely updated”, but to each his own, I guess.

In many ways this market seems worse than 2007 in terms of all the nonsense around multiple bids, highest and best taken Sunday night, waive inspection, waive financing, waive your second child…

Would be nice to see a comparison of how many listings are selling now within like 1, 3, 7. 10+ days versus this same time in 2006 or 2007. Total sales volume is presumably WAY lower now so would need to be on a % basis to make any interesting comparison. There was a window as a potential buyer where it looked like getting back into the market made sense but with events like this it is hard not to have second thoughts about chasing the herd and where the next cliff lies. While prices may not be as inflated yet, the market seems almost more dysfunctional right now than it did back in the actual “bubble”.

It seems to me that there is this weird disconnect from what happened in just 2006, 2007, and what is going on today. People jumping around like there will be no more chances to buy, or be priced out forever.

The stock market is also onto new highs. It just seems like a replay of what we just went through. The difference now is we did have a crash, we do have unemployment, we do have the sequester, and yet none of that seems to be a concern. All we do is look at sales data, that I think is based on the greater fool principle.

What I think though is that people should be more careful this time around.

I’ll also go out on a limb, and say that I look at 2014 as the end of the seven year cycle of 2007. It seems to me there are mechanisms already in place from what Bernanke has said that may impact the Real Estate market. I’m not saying for the buyer to wait it out, but just to be aware that things may change soon.

I’ve watching the Ballard area pretty religiously for the last 10 years or so and I’ve never (boom included) seen so little inventory and things move so fast. I bought a step up place in October was actually able to wait out the buyer and negotiate a bit. Wouldn’t happen now. Every-time I see something that looks semi decent it goes pending a day or two later. Redfin says there are only 21 SFH listings in all of Ballard. Ballard is a fairly large area — this is a quarter or less than what is typically available.

No kidding. We negotiated down $10K off asking price and got the seller to pay for closing costs based on the inspection report. This year we’d be lucky to even GET an inspection, let alone offer less than 102% of asking.

[…] barely over a month ago we launched our latest price-guessing contest: Guess the Price Round 5: 101 Years Old in Phinney Ridge. After round 4 dragged on for seven months, I tried to pick a home that was likely to sell a little […]

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