We’ve devised a foolproof, satisfaction-guaranteed system with which to measure your favorite candidate’s likelihood of jumping into the 2016 race. The New Hampshire primary is just around—not the corner, but a corner, somewhere a few miles ahead. Just remember: everyone is a candidate until proven innocent.

THREAT LEVEL FIVE: VISITS STATE NO ONE WOULD EVER—EVER—OTHERWISE VISIT

Example: Marco Rubio. “He made a trip to the first-to-vote state of Iowa over the weekend, raising eyebrows despite the official explanation that he was merely helping out with Republican Governor Terry Branstad’s birthday fundraiser.”

THREAT LEVEL FOUR: ANGLING FOR TIME ON THE SUNDAY SHOWS.

Example: Bobby Jindal. “If distancing oneself from Mitt Romney is the new yardstick with which to measure one’s 2016 presidential ambitions, then Louisiana governor Bobby Jindal is leading the pack of future G.O.P. hopefuls.”

THREAT LEVEL THREE: CURIOSITY.

Example: Andrew Cuomo. “At one point, a key adviser to [New York governor Andrew Cuomo] approached the Reverand Al Sharpton to ask him if he would support Mrs. Clinton were she to run in 2016. . . ‘They are totally trying to figure out what she would do,’ said the Democrat.”