Josh Hawley Just Took the Lead on Claire McCaskill in MO-Sen. Is Kavanaugh the Reason?

Hawley has a two-point lead on McCaskill in the U.S. Senate race, according to a Missouri Scout poll. Nearly half of Missouri voters say the Supreme Court process has made them less likely to vote for McCaskill.

By NTK Staff | 10.01.2018 @12:30pm

Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO) announced her opposition to Brett Kavanaugh ahead of his and Dr. Christine Blasey Ford’s testimonies before the Senate Judiciary Committee last Thursday. A new poll suggests McCaskill’s opposition to Kavanaugh may be hurting her with Missouri voters in her U.S. Senate contest with Attorney General Josh Hawley (R-MO).

A poll from Missouri Scout, conducted on September 26 and September 27, found Hawley taking the lead on McCaskill in the U.S. Senate race. Hawley, the Republican, earned 48 percent of the vote, and McCaskill earned 46 percent. Six percent of Missouri voters are undecided.

The next question in the poll was about Kavanaugh and McCaskill: “Has the Supreme Court confirmation process for Brett Kavanaugh made you more likely to vote for Claire McCaskill or less likely to vote for Claire McCaskill, or made no difference?”

A plurality of voters, 49 percent, said the process has made them “less likely” to vote for McCaskill in November. Only 42 percent are “more likely” to vote for McCaskill. A little under one in ten said the process made “no difference” in their vote.

McCaskill’s opposition to Kavanaugh had nothing to do with the sexual assault allegations against the judge, either. McCaskill said she will vote against Kavanaugh because of his views on “dark, anonymous money [in elections] that is crushing our democracy.”

If McCaskill loses to Hawley in November, political observers may look to the Kavanaugh announcement as the turning point in Hawley’s favor. More polls will determine if this poll showing a Hawley lead is an outlier or a trend.