NOAA
ANNOUNCES U.S. SPRING OUTLOOK
Drought and Wildfire Concerns Highlighted for April through June

March
16, 2006 — At a news conference today in Phoenix, Ariz., NOAA,
in partnership with the National Interagency Fire Center, announced
that despite periodic precipitation, NOAA's
U.S. Spring outlook supports the potential for a significant wildfire
season in the Southwest and central and southern Plains. (Click
NOAA image for larger view of NOAA spring 2006 precipitation outlook.
Click here
for high resolution version. Please credit “NOAA.”)

"Recent
storms have eased the drought situation in many areas of the country,
but the rain and snow arrived too late to offset the impacts from months
of record dry weather across the Southwest, resulting in the continuing
potential for a dangerous fire season," said retired Air Force
Brig. Gen. David L. Johnson,
director of the NOAA National Weather
Service.

Weak
La
Niña conditions, which developed this winter, contributed
to significant drought concerns in the Southwest, central and southern
Plains. "April through June is typically dry in the Southwest,
so drought will very likely persist or even worsen until the thunderstorm
season arrives this summer," said Ed O'Lenic, chief, forecast operations
branch, NOAA Climate Prediction
Center. "NOAA's outlook also indicates a continued drought
concern for the southern and central Plains." (Click NOAA
image for larger view of NOAA spring 2006 temperature outlook. Click
here for high resolution version. Please credit “NOAA.”)

"The
National Interagency Fire Center's Seasonal Wildland Fire Potential
Outlook for February through June 2006 calls for an above normal fire
potential for Southern California, the Southwest, Southern Plains to
Florida; and a below normal potential in the Northeast," said Rick
Ochoa, National Interagency Fire Center
fire weather program manager.

As of March
13, nearly unprecedented dry weather, unseasonably high temperatures,
and gusty winds have already contributed to more than 13,000 wildfires,
scorching in excess of 930,000 acres nationally since January 1, mainly
in Texas and Oklahoma. This is well above the five-year average of 6,363
wildfires and 98,476 acres burned.

In the
southern Plains, the drought has had a major impact on farmers and ranchers.
The lack of rain has dried up many stock ponds and led to abysmal pasture,
range and winter wheat crop conditions, especially in Texas and Oklahoma.

Currently,
severe to extreme drought extends across the Southwest into the southern
Plains and northward into Kansas. The U.S.
Drought Monitor gives its highest drought rating, D4 (exceptional),
to portions of southern Texas and eastern Oklahoma. Heavy rains including
severe thunderstorms have eased short-term drought in Illinois, Iowa
and southward into Arkansas, but ongoing drought concerns may linger.
The recent heavy rains and flooding ended dryness concerns over most
of Hawaii. (Click NOAA image for larger view of U.S. Drought
Monitor as of March 16, 2005. Click
here for high resolution version. Please credit “NOAA.”)

The U.S.
Seasonal Drought Outlook calls for dry conditions persisting through
June in the Southwest and the southern and central Plains, despite temporary
improvement in some areas. Also, drought is expected to expand in Kansas
and eastern Colorado. Some drought improvement is predicted for areas
in the northern Rockies and northern Plains, as well as the Mississippi
Valley and eastern Plains. Drought is expected to continue in North
Carolina and possibly expand into portions of the mid-Atlantic and Southeast.

For
the nation as a whole, the U.S. Spring Outlook for April through June
indicates below-normal precipitation for much of the central and southern
Plains, as well as the Southeast and Gulf Coast. Above normal precipitation
is favored across the northern Plains and Great Lakes region as well
as Hawaii. The remainder of the country, including Alaska, has equal
chances of above, near or below normal precipitation. (Click
image for larger view of seasonal wildland fire potential outlook for
February through June 2006. Click
here for high resolution version. Please credit “National
Interagency Fire Center.”)

Meanwhile,
above normal temperatures are indicated for the Southwest eastward into
the Southeast and the northwest islands of Hawaii; below normal temperatures
are likely for the northern Plains, northern Rockies and Washington
State. Western Alaska and the panhandle may see above-normal temperatures.
The remainder of the country has equal chances of above, near or below
normal temperature.

An equal
chance, either for temperature or precipitation, is predicted when there
are no reliable and skillful signals on which to base the seasonal outlook.

"There
is a silver lining in today's announcement," said Johnson. "NOAA's
National Hydrologic Assessment does not indicate a widespread flooding
potential this spring for the contiguous U.S." However, substantial
snowpack in the West has produced areas of above average flood risk.
Wet fall and near normal winter conditions have primed the Red River
of the North, the boundary between North Dakota and Minnesota, for moderate
to major flooding this spring. Also, recent heavy rains across the Ohio
Valley region and southern Mississippi have caused flooding on rivers,
increasing the risk for future flooding.

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