Share this story

The Trump administration has for several years been working to weaken federal vehicle fuel-efficiency standards. To justify these changes, regulatory agencies argued that more stringent standards would both cost consumers more and reduce road safety. A draft version of the new final rule, however, seems to directly contradict those lines of reasoning.

The draft of the Safer Affordable Fuel-Efficient (SAFE) Vehicles rule has not been released publicly, but Sen. Thomas Carper (D-Del.) has seen it. In a letter (PDF) to the White House, Carper says not only is the rule "replete with numerous questionable legal, procedural, and technical assertions," as well as "apparent typographical and other errors," but it also completely fails to provide the safety or economic benefits initially claimed.

Why SAFE?

The SAFE rule is part of a back-and-forth that hasn't literally been going on since the dawn of time, but it kind of feels that way. The kerfuffle all began in 2012 when the Obama administration adopted a fuel-economy standard that would gradually increase the average miles-per-gallon rating for most cars to 54.5mpg by 2025 (about 40mpg under real-world conditions). The Environmental Protection Agency finalized that standard in December 2016.

Further Reading

Like many regulations either finalized or enacted during the tail end of the Obama administration, though, the fuel-economy standard had a target on its back when the Trump administration began a month later. EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt in 2018 kicked off a rulemaking process to dump the 2012 rule and replace it with something weaker.

The EPA's core argument for again lowering fuel-economy expectations hinged on cost. More efficient cars would cost more to make, the EPA said, which in turn means higher costs for consumers. The agency estimated the price of a new car would go up by $2,340, hitting consumers right in the pocketbook.

From there, the argument went on, consumers would also be more at risk for injury and death in road accidents because newer cars are safer than older ones. But if prices went up, the argument goes, more drivers would instead choose to hang onto older, less safe models. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), which worked with the EPA to design the proposal, estimated that nixing the higher fuel-economy standard would save 12,700 lives through the 2029 model year.

Further Reading

An expert told Ars at the time that this reasoning seemed specious, noting that researchers have not yet demonstrated "a statistically rigorous association between traffic fatalities and fuel economy."

When more is less

Sen. Carper seems to agree, writing that the math simply doesn't add up. "Remarkably, the costs of the Trump administration's draft final rule exceed its benefits to Americans" relative to the current standards.

The senator writes:

While the draft final rule finds that the per vehicle purchase price would be reduced relative to the Obama rules by $977 (EPA greenhouse gas standards)/$1,083 (DOT's fuel economy standards), the draft final rule also projects that the increased gasoline consumers would have to use to operate the less fuel-efficient vehicles would ad $1,461 (EPA greenhouse gas standards)/$1,423 (DOT fuel economy standards) to these costs. Adding hundreds of dollars to the cost of each vehicle would seem to be the opposite of the more "affordable" vehicles the SAFE rule promised.

Further, Carper notes, the estimate of lives potentially saved over a nearly 50-year time period by upgrading to new cars does not take into account the lives potentially lost to illness and disease attributable to increased pollution from less efficient cars.

"My office's review of the draft final rule indicates that it utterly fails to provide any demonstrable safety, environmental, or economic benefit to consumers or the country," Carper concludes. "It should be abandoned. At a minimum, I seek your commitment that you will not allow the finalization of this extreme and unlawful environmental rollback in any form that even remotely resembles" the current draft.

Meanwhile, the fight is unlikely to end with the passage of a new federal rule. A group of automakers has rallied behind a stricter standard developed by California regulators, which several other states have indicated they will also adopt. The administration sued California, which sued back; those cases are still winding their way through the court.

Senator Carper is fighting the good fight, but - as should be abundantly obvious to basically everyone at this point - the Trump administration, and the entire GOP, does not care.

They don't care if the math adds up.

They don't care if consumers end up spending more or spending less.

They don't care if they've factored in all the information necessary to make a good decision.

They don't care if people might be sickened or die as a result of their decisions.

They don't care about good and responsible governance, or the rule of law, or procedures, or norms, or having good reasons to do things, or facts, or logic, or the truth. They don't even care enough to run that shit through a spell-checker.

Once Senator Carper, and the rest of us, fully face up to the fact that the entire GOP theory of governance is "fuck you, I'm getting mine" and "fuck you, I got mine" and just plain old "fuck you," the sooner we might have a meaningful retort.

Not mentioned in the analysis: the utter collapse of the American car industry because import manufacturers aren't waiting for America to get its shit together, and are making more fuel efficient cars anyway. It'll be Japanese cars eating Ford and GM's lunch back in the 70s all over again.

Senator Carper is fighting the good fight, but - as should be abundantly obvious to basically everyone at this point - the Trump administration, and the entire GOP, does not care.

They don't care if the math adds up.

They don't care if consumers end up spending more or spending less.

They don't care if they've factored in all the information necessary to make a good decision.

They don't care if people might be sickened or die as a result of their decisions.

They don't care about good and responsible governance, or the rule of law, or procedures, or norms, or having good reasons to do things, or facts, or logic, or the truth. They don't even care enough to run that shit through a spell-checker.

Once Senator Carper, and the rest of us, fully face up to the fact that the entire GOP theory of governance is "fuck you, I'm getting mine" and "fuck you, I got mine" and just plain old "fuck you," the sooner we might have a meaningful retort.

Well, the best retort would be to vote members of the GOP out of office come Nov 2020.

It does seem that thanks to the courts some of the worst policy changes are being held up to the point where if there is an administration change the "Let's kill the planet" policies can be ... killed.

Senator Carper is fighting the good fight, but - as should be abundantly obvious to basically everyone at this point - the Trump administration, and the entire GOP, does not care.

They don't care if the math adds up.

They don't care if consumers end up spending more or spending less.

They don't care if they've factored in all the information necessary to make a good decision.

They don't care if people might be sickened or die as a result of their decisions.

They don't care about good and responsible governance, or the rule of law, or procedures, or norms, or having good reasons to do things, or facts, or logic, or the truth. They don't even care enough to run that shit through a spell-checker.

Once Senator Carper, and the rest of us, fully face up to the fact that the entire GOP theory of governance is "fuck you, I'm getting mine" and "fuck you, I got mine" and just plain old "fuck you," the sooner we might have a meaningful retort.

Not mentioned in the analysis: the utter collapse of the American car industry because import manufacturers aren't waiting for America to get its shit together, and are making more fuel efficient cars anyway.

See, even five years ago, I'd have scoffed at this, but as a recreational observer of the car industry, I can't disagree, much as I'd like to. GM is utterly fucking rudderless right now, just helplessly dog-paddling in the direction the accountants are telling them the beach is. Ford is solvent mostly because of the F-150. FCA, likewise because of Jeep and Ram, and also because they've shacked up with two other major world carmakers lately.

But at the same time, the entire industry is in a really fucked-up situation right now, because they can see the writing on the wall as far as EVs go, and they're desperately trying to catch up to Tesla, but consumer demand is still like "give me all the trucks you have," so they're utterly reliant on those products, which will work fine until the next recession. At which time, there shall be a Reckoning.

It's pretty obvious to us in CA that this is one of a zillion repercussions from us giving Clinton 4 million more votes than Trump, thereby denying him his popular vote win.

The EPAs reasoning here has as much validity as telling us to rake our forests. And I don't blame EPA scientists here. This was a political decision. That said, CA puts more resources to these specific issues than the feds do. At the end of the day, CAs economic power will force these policies on the feds. These efforts are just delaying the inevitable.

Senator Carper is fighting the good fight, but - as should be abundantly obvious to basically everyone at this point - the Trump administration, and the entire GOP, does not care.

They don't care if the math adds up.

They don't care if consumers end up spending more or spending less.

They don't care if they've factored in all the information necessary to make a good decision.

They don't care if people might be sickened or die as a result of their decisions.

They don't care about good and responsible governance, or the rule of law, or procedures, or norms, or having good reasons to do things, or facts, or logic, or the truth. They don't even care enough to run that shit through a spell-checker.

Once Senator Carper, and the rest of us, fully face up to the fact that the entire GOP theory of governance is "fuck you, I'm getting mine" and "fuck you, I got mine" and just plain old "fuck you," the sooner we might have a meaningful retort.

THIS^ Your words cannot be emphasized enough. It's Fuck You's all the way down and very much part of the overall plan in work for decades now. Fuck up governing so much that their motto- "See? Government cannot solve your problems!" is a self-fulfilling prophesy. Then, unfettered capitalism can rule and return us to the fine days of Feudalism. The plan is working.

Not mentioned in the analysis: the utter collapse of the American car industry because import manufacturers aren't waiting for America to get its shit together, and are making more fuel efficient cars anyway. It'll be Japanese cars eating Ford and GM's lunch back in the 70s all over again.

Isn't it weird how the federal government is suing states that just want stricter pollution standards in those states? What sort of upside down world are we living in? A personal watercraft I bought in Georgia in 2008 was CARB certified. I liked the idea that my ski wasn't polluting as much as the one it replaced. California didn't impose its will on me. The manufacturer decided to sell cleaner vehicles in every state.

Honestly, I'd be more surprised if the EPA reasoning *did* hold up. Across the board, the chuckleheads in this administration are neither honest enough about their real goals to be able to speak plainly without weaseling or outright lying, nor intelligent enough to competently pull the wool over people's eyes.

Thank god for their utter stupidity, it's what will save us in the end.

Honestly, I'd be more surprised if the EPA reasoning *did* hold up. Across the board, the chuckleheads in this administration are neither honest enough about their real goals to be able to speak plainly without weaseling or outright lying, nor intelligent enough to competently pull the wool over people's eyes.

Thank god for their utter stupidity, it's what will save us in the end.

I am not as sanguine as you appear to be. Trump and Toadies Inc. aren't gone yet.

Translation: Sheesh, you idiots couldn't even be bothered to run it through a spell check!

It's the trump administration, I'd be much more surprised if they managed spell things right. This administration doesn't care if the world is left inhabitable so long as the make a dime off of doing it. they'd glass the whole planet if they could make a buck off of it.

I mean trump made his stance on the environment clear: “We can leave a little bit, but you can't destroy businesses.” it's been taking more and more energy not breaking things on lunch breaks over these last 3 years as I read the news, I won't be able to make it another 4.

Senator Carper is fighting the good fight, but - as should be abundantly obvious to basically everyone at this point - the Trump administration, and the entire GOP, does not care.

They don't care if the math adds up.

They don't care if consumers end up spending more or spending less.

They don't care if they've factored in all the information necessary to make a good decision.

They don't care if people might be sickened or die as a result of their decisions.

They don't care about good and responsible governance, or the rule of law, or procedures, or norms, or having good reasons to do things, or facts, or logic, or the truth. They don't even care enough to run that shit through a spell-checker.

Once Senator Carper, and the rest of us, fully face up to the fact that the entire GOP theory of governance is "fuck you, I'm getting mine" and "fuck you, I got mine" and just plain old "fuck you," the sooner we might have a meaningful retort.

Well, the best retort would be to vote members of the GOP out of office come Nov 2020.

It does seem that thanks to the courts some of the worst policy changes are being held up to the point where if there is an administration change the "Let's kill the planet" policies can be ... killed.

Unfortunately, there is a sizeable portion of America who are perfectly happy with letting everything burn. It's how we got to where we are today in the first place.

Not mentioned in the analysis: the utter collapse of the American car industry because import manufacturers aren't waiting for America to get its shit together, and are making more fuel efficient cars anyway.

See, even five years ago, I'd have scoffed at this, but as a recreational observer of the car industry, I can't disagree, much as I'd like to. GM is utterly fucking rudderless right now, just helplessly dog-paddling in the direction the accountants are telling them the beach is. Ford is solvent mostly because of the F-150. FCA, likewise because of Jeep and Ram, and also because they've shacked up with two other major world carmakers lately.

But at the same time, the entire industry is in a really fucked-up situation right now, because they can see the writing on the wall as far as EVs go, and they're desperately trying to catch up to Tesla, but consumer demand is still like "give me all the trucks you have," so they're utterly reliant on those products, which will work fine until the next recession. At which time, there shall be a Reckoning.

I'd think all the old OEM's face the same economic issues. Unlike Tesla, the investors in Ford, GM, Peugeot-FCA, VW, etc. aren't likely to look favorably at the major paradigm shift that Tesla initiated.

Sure, Tesla has a market cap bigger than the others of the "Big 2.25" in the US, but those old OEM's have much more in sunk costs (tooling, etc) that they have to justify.

And for what it's worth, I don't think GM is as rudderless as some think. I think GM took the hit with the long strike last year explicitly because EV's require less manpower to build.

Being able to negotiate with the UAW the flexibility to draw down after an EV switch is a big deal, especially since union related "legacy costs" are what drove GM into bankruptcy in the first place.

Start now by getting all the sane people you know registered to vote. Many counties allow for volunteer registrars after a bit of training (or possibly none).

More importantly, it's getting those unregistered blue-leaning voters in red districts registered - Gerrymandering means that getting out the vote in blue districts only doesn't have as much an impact overall.

I mean, 2020 is a census year. If State legislators lean red, it will have long-term effects for decades.

That presupposes that anyone involved in the making of this decision gives a flying fuck to the moon about how history judges them. They don't. This crew is 100% tactics, no strategy. They delay gratification like the average toddler does. And that's why anyone playing a game longer than this November keeps stepping on their dicks when attempting to counter them.

Start now by getting all the sane people you know registered to vote. Many counties allow for volunteer registrars after a bit of training (or possibly none).

More importantly, it's getting those unregistered blue-leaning voters in red districts registered - Gerrymandering means that getting out the vote in blue districts only doesn't have as much an impact overall.

I mean, 2020 is a census year. If State legislators lean red, it will have long-term effects for decades.

No surprise that the current EPA can’t do math, it can’t protect the environment either.

Well, if they gut agencies to make them look incompetent, they'll actually look incompetent and people will be onboard with gutting them further. The logic is bullet-proof!

I believe that's the real end-goal of the current administration - devolve federal government completely (and revert back to a feudal state would be a bonus!) They certainly are doing everything in their power to make themselves irrelevant to the rest of the world and even among the internal states.

Senator Carper is fighting the good fight, but - as should be abundantly obvious to basically everyone at this point - the Trump administration, and the entire GOP, does not care.

They don't care if the math adds up.

They don't care if consumers end up spending more or spending less.

They don't care if they've factored in all the information necessary to make a good decision.

They don't care if people might be sickened or die as a result of their decisions.

They don't care about good and responsible governance, or the rule of law, or procedures, or norms, or having good reasons to do things, or facts, or logic, or the truth. They don't even care enough to run that shit through a spell-checker.

Once Senator Carper, and the rest of us, fully face up to the fact that the entire GOP theory of governance is "fuck you, I'm getting mine" and "fuck you, I got mine" and just plain old "fuck you," the sooner we might have a meaningful retort.

"Once Senator Carper, and the rest of us, fully face up to the fact that the entire GOP theory of governance is "fuck you, I'm getting mine" and "fuck you, I got mine" and just plain old "fuck you," the sooner we might have a meaningful retort."

That's the unfortunate part, there is no meaningful retort to that. All you have left is "fuck you back." If you're competing in a game with no referee and the opposing side just does whatever the hell they want, you no longer have an option to play as gentlemen. That's done. You need to play at their level or get creative. Unfortunately (or fortunately?), we're really bad at playing at their level. So far we haven't been much good at the creative thing, either.