Tropical Storm ILEANA

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TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092012
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 01 2012
ILEANA CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN AND MOST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION HAS NOW DISAPPEARED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT
BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST SATELLITE ESTIMATES...BUT THIS COULD
BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. WITH THE CYCLONE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE 23C
ISOTHERM SOON...WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND ILEANA IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY 24 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION SHOULD DISSIPATE ENTIRELY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/08. A WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE SOUTH OF DUE WEST
AS THE REMNANT LOW IS STEERED BY THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC LOW-LEVEL
RIDGE. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...
FOLLOWING THE TREND OF THE LATEST CYCLE OF GLOBAL MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/1500Z 23.0N 118.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 23.1N 120.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 23.2N 122.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 03/0000Z 23.0N 124.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 03/1200Z 22.8N 125.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 04/1200Z 22.5N 129.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 05/1200Z 22.0N 132.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED
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FORECASTER BRENNAN
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