Discovering the adversary, one day at a time

Threats

January 20, 2013

As I blogged yesterday, here is the 2012 list of AQIM-related events in Illizi province. My news sources didn't have reports for June or July, and so the set is incomplete. Still, I think it shows a qualitiative change in the militant activity in Illizi between 2011 and 2012: more arms caches, more reports of cross border training. Though it's certainly not enough information to make solid analytical conclusions, the information hints at a consolidation of AQIM/militant operations (possibly leadership) in Libya, challenging the idea that northern Mali is AQIM's "base."

An unknown number of suspected AQIM members were arrested
at the Niger border. A local report
notes that the militants were crossing the border with hundreds of small arms
and light weapons

17 January

3 AQIM operatives kidnapped the governor of the Illizi
province in Debdab. The militants released a political aide and a driver who
were with the governor at the time. They were released a day later

22 January

2 AQIM suspected of weapons trafficking were arrested near
the Libyan border

06 February

7 AQIM suspects were arrested in several locations in
Algeria, including Ghardaïa, Illizi, Adrar and Tamanrasset provinces. The suspects were alleged to belong to a
weapons smuggling ring

20 February

A local report of a buried weapons cache recovered near In
Amenas. The cache allegedly contained: 15 SA-24s and 24 SA-7s

07 March

7 AQIM suspects were arrested In Amenas

13 March

1 AQIM member was arrested at an unnamed location in
Illizi province. One local report notes that he confessed to receiving
training at an AQIM camp in southern Libya

15 April

A shootout in Djanet, along the border with Libya, led to
the arrest of 2 AQIM suspects

08 August

4 AQIM suspects, including one Libyan, were arrested at an
unnamed location in Illizi

30 September

27 AQIM members were arrested at an unnamed location in
Illizi province. According to local
reporting, the suspects were part of a recruitment and training cell that
sent some members to Libya, specifically Bani Walid and Benghazi

January 19, 2013

The border region around En Amenas has been the scene of both criminal and AQIM-related activity for quite some time. In my day job, I call this activity microinstability: very select regions or localities in a country that experience extended periods of persistent threat activity. Algeria has a perfect example. Despite relatively stable public and social life (for a dictatorship) in most of the country, Tizi Ouzou remains one of the most dangerous localities in North Africa. In order to identify these patches of hell, an analyst needs to persistently study local activity, such as local crime and CT incident reporting. There's nothing innovative about the methods of research and analysis here. Rather, the innovation is how the analyst employs the information.

The few of my (few) readers around this long weekend might appreciate this list of terrorism and CT incidents for Illizi Province, Algeria for the year 2011. I'll get to 2012 later today or tomorrow.

A group called Movement of the Sons of Algeria for Islamic
Justice (MFSJ) accused the government of breaking a 2008 agreement. According
to one local report, the MFSJ was established in 2007, and attacked oil
facility at En Amenas

13 September

El-Khabar reported that energy companies operating in
southern Algeria were increasing their security measures. The measures were in response to a suspect
AQIM plot to target energy facilities in complex attacks

18 September

Algerian security forces captured 2 AQIM suspects. Local
reports suggest they were reconnoitering military facilities in the region.

18 September

Forces recovered a suspected AQIM cache of explosives
along the Niger border

July 13, 2009

I continue to see reports of arrests and plot disruptions throughout the MENA region, suggesting an open season both on AQ operatives and their plots against foreigners, military assets, and energy infrastructure. Last week’s news of Al Qaida arrests in Saudi Arabia belie continued reports of the group’s waning influence on the Peninsula.

Clearly, there are still operational and logistical cells plotting attacks in Saudi Arabia, and considering the economic slow down in the region, expect reports to increase in the coming years as some educated young men seek spiritual fulfillment in the liminal life of violent jihad. Al –Qaida saw a boom in the 1990s when Gulf economies were struggling to employ their educated middle class young men, and they may just experience a forth stage or re-emergence in the next five years.

Recent arrests also follow a pattern that goes back to 2005 with the late-August disruption of a near-operational plot targeting energy infrastructure in Ad Dammam. The pattern includes disruptive arrests preceding official announcements of thwarted ambitious attacks usually during late summer, some perhaps to coincide with the September 11th anniversary. It happened in 2006, 2007, and 2008.

To put it into perspective a second, 2006-2008 saw a dramatic decline in al-Qaida’s operational capabilities in Saudi Arabia, and yet they maintained enough local capacity to plot and support large-scale attacks. Now that al-Qaida’s Yemen branch has established itself as a serious player in regional conflicts, it’s building its operational capacity in the region, including Egypt and Gaza. Though I haven’t seen much reporting on it, AQAP could easily be the strategic source for recent reports of AQ activity in Gaza and the Sinai plots. I think I recall a recent statement by the current AQAP leader announcing their intent to infiltrate Gaza. I take their intentions seriously, and assume that they have tried and met with some success.

Taking AQAP’s operations in Yemen out of the picture for a moment, 2009 has seen several CT arrests on the Peninsula and Sinai. Often brief reports they are a background noise barely heard through the cacophony of news from Afghanistan, Iraq, and other regions. Some of the reports are vague, but are easily associated with al-Qaida, others are more ambiguous and could be explained as criminal activity (they’re in gray). Notice, too, that there have been various reports of arrests and plots against US military assets and personnel throughout MENA, suggesting that al-Qaida may have been plotting an attack on military and naval assets.

March 03, 2009

I know, I know, the source is a Pakistani newspaper, but it's still interesting.

An Interior Ministry source said that the Saudi embassy had received a message through an email in which Al Qaeda had threatened to target Saudi Airlines’ offices and other important installations. The source said the Saudi embassy had written to the Pakistani Interior Ministry about Al Qaeda’s threat. It also said that External Ministry additional secretary Imran Khan Al Sherazi had requested the Interior Ministry to immediately increase security at Saudi installations across the country.

June 16, 2008

A statement posted on the website of the British Embassy in Abu Dhabi said the country has "a high threat of terrorism."

"We believe terrorists may be planning to carry out attacks in the UAE. Attacks could be indiscriminate and could happen at any time," it said.

Simon Goldsmith, a spokesman for the British Embassy in Dubai, confirmed the heightened alert and said the terror threat level for Britons in the UAE was at the highest level used by the British government.

The embassy, however, "is not advising British nationals to change their travel plans," Goldsmith told The Associated Press by telephone from Dubai.

The threat level was changed on Saturday, he added.

UAE is squarely in the operational control of AQ's Arabian Peninsula affiliate, and though it's difficult to ascertain specifics of the threat from such vague reporting, it's clear that the British interpreted whatever intel they received as significant enough to warrant a warning. It's a sign that AQ in the Arabian Peninsula is still active, either through their robust Yemen contingent or improved capabilities from Iraq and Afghan returnees.

June 06, 2008

Interior Ministry chief Rehman Malik told local television channel, Geo TV, that three suicide bombers were among those arrested and three vehicles full of explosives had been seized by police in Rawalpindi, near the capital.

He said a 'red alert' had been declared in both Rawalpindi and Islamabad.

The arrests came only four days after a car bomb attack outside the Danish Embassy killed six people and injured several others.

The 11 suspected terrorists who were arrested by the police in a security operation are believed to have wanted to import arms from Belgium to hit tourist attractions and institutional targets in Morocco.

The information about the terrorists was allegedly gathered after the authorities interrogated Habib Bin Ali, the suspected leader of the group. It is believed that he is a young man born in 1981 in Nador, who emigrated to Belgium together with this family.

The nine Pakistani and two Indian nationals face charges of belonging to a terrorist group and possession of explosives after police raided an unauthorised prayer hall in the city on 19 January following a tip-off from an informant.

Ten of the indicted suspects are among 14 people arrested in the raids - the other four were freed without charge - while one of them is currently subject to an international arrest warrant.

Investigators found a small quantity of nitrocellulose, a highly flammable compound inside the mosque in Barcelona's Raval district, as well as an array of electrical and mechanical devices, leading Judge Ismael Moreno to conclude that the group were engaged in bomb-making in preparation for attacks that were to have been carried out the same weekend the raid took place.

May 16, 2008

AKI reports tonight that the head of Al Qaeda's Yemen affiliate has publicly warned foreign tourists to leave the country.

"We warn all the unbelievers who enter the Arabian Peninsula that [targeting] their money and their blood are religiously right for us," said al-Qaeda of the Jihad in the South of the Arabian Peninsula in a statement that was published in its e-magazine entitled "Epic Echo".

"We want to tell you that if you enter the Arabian Peninsula under any name or cover, whether as tourists, diplomats, university professors or journalists, know that we are justified in targeting you," said the statement.

"We do not respect any of the agreements signed by the Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh and various governments."

The terrorists also mentioned the al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden and accused Europeans of not having accepted his offer of peace offered to European governments in April 2004.

The last paragraph is most important, because it highlights Al Qaeda's persistence. The warning given to Europeans in 2004 caused a fuss at the time, but has long since been forgotten by most Americans and Europeans. But Bin Laden's ultimatum to Europe was following the traditional rubric of warning your enemy before you attack. Europeans -- like the Americans -- were probably expecting an attack somewhere in Western Europe. There have been two major attacks in Europe, and several near operational plots thwarted, but nothing on the grand scale of 9-11.

However, Al Qaeda's strategic thinking with Europe parallels its U.S. strategy. It doesn't need to attack Europeans in Europe when it can do it closer to their area of operations, ie Afghanistan. This is the thinking behind their energy threat strategy: retreat, retrench, rebuild, and attack the enemy's economic foundations. Yemen is increasingly becoming tourist destination for Europeans, and Al Qaeda's branch there has become increasingly effective at harming the country's key economic growth sectors: tourism and energy.

The threat should be taken seriously.

Al Qaeda's capabilities in Yemen are growing, even as they flee Iraq. The Yemeni group could end up benefiting from an Iraq pull out with new skilled, battle-hardened fighters as the group's leadership decides to move their mujahideen from one region of "open jihad" (Iraq) to others like Afghanistan, Somalia, and Yemen.

If pressure isn't placed on the group now through government efforts, then we could see the re-invigoration of the Saudi branch of the group along with the emergence of a new, effective Al Qaeda branch in Yemen. Yemen's cultural, familial, and ethnic ties with Saudi Arabia are very strong, and many Saudi Al Qaeda members are of Yemeni heritage. With an increase capacity to organize, fund, operate and regularly communicate, Al Qaeda's Yemeni branch could become the next breeding and training ground for an attack on "economic" targets in Saudi Arabia, most likely energy facilities.

May 14, 2008

Al Qaeda's threat to vital energy infrastructure sites in the Persian Gulf remains serious. My first CT article, co-authored with Professor Jack Williams of Georgia State University, has been published in West Point's Combating Terrorism Center's Sentinel journal. It analyzes the evolution of Al Qaeda's threat to energy infrastructure and proposes an interpretive framework for the threat based on Islamic law and Muslim history.

Update [11/30/08]: Heritage Foundation recently led an exercise that looked at the consequences of a large-scale attack on key energy infrastructure nodes. There results can be found here.

Update [10/18/08]: My post on the recent interview of a senior AQ operative in Yemen discussing the purpose of his activity on the Peninsula -- targeting energy infrastructure.

May 13, 2008

Own it up to the fact that I worked at the Department of Energy for five years, but I can't stand the kvetching about the price of gas. I'm on a bit of rant today, after reading Thomas Sowell's column in Real Clear Politics bemoaning the lack of serious explanation by politicians to the general public regarding the price of gas.

By the time yet another federal investigation is completed-- and turns up nothing to substantiate the villainy that is supposed to be the reason for high gasoline prices-- most people's attention will have turned to something else.

Newspapers that carried the original inflammatory charges with banner headlines on page 1 will carry the story of the completed investigation that turned up nothing as a small item deep inside the paper.

This has happened at least a dozen times over the past few decades and it will probably happen again.

What about those "obscene" oil company profits we hear so much about?An economist might ask, "Obscene compared to what?" Compared to the investments made? Compared to the new investments required to find, extract and process additional oil supplies?

Asking questions like these are among the many reasons why economists have never been very popular. They frustrate people's desires for emotionally satisfying explanations.

Sorry, folks, it's not a conspiracy. The price per barrel directs the price at the pump, and the price per barrel is determined by a Gordion knot of international political, financial, and policy events that change throughout the day and evolve over time.

For a few facts on the price of oil and the price of gas I suggest with enthusiasm the site of DOE's Energy Information Administration (EIA):

There are few individuals, countries, or events that dictate the price of oil on their own. Even the United States can't dictate a price. It can only massage a daily price per barrel with policy change here or a geopolitical event there. Al Qaeda is one group that can dictate the price of gas. If they successfully attack a critical site in Saudi Arabia -- places like Ras Tanura or Abqaiq -- they could take the global price into wild speculative territory, and depending on the extent of the damage, bring the world market to a halt.

If Al Qaeda succeeds at taking any KSA facility off line, then you'll be pining for the day of $4/gallon gas.

May 07, 2008

Olivier Guitta at Counterterrorism Blog notes that Morocco is now under high alert after a possible "dry run." Add Morocco to a growing list of countries in North Africa on high alert. With Al Qaeda's current use of the 11th day for their operations, it may just be a jittery Sunday throughout the region.

UPDATE: London Times reports on the ongoing threat to Europe from Al Qaeda's growing presence and capabilities in Africa.

Intelligence sources contacted by The Times in London, France, Spain, Germany and the US as well as in North Africa show a remarkable uniformity when describing the threat posed by AQIM. At present it is not the size of its membership that is causing alarm – one Western intelligence source said that its hardcore numbered about 200 fighters – but the speed with which it has reorganised itself in a region emerging from a conflict that has claimed up to 200,000 lives in the past decade.

While it has continued to attack Algerian forces AQIM has widened its range of targets – including Westerners – using tactics honed in Iraq: suicide attacks and a variety of bombing techniques. “They are definitely growing in sophistication and, taken as a whole, this presents us with a very disturbing picture,” the source said.

“They’ve done all this in a relatively short time, some of it through the use of the internet where they can organise, download training videos, recruit via encrypted forums.

“There are disturbing trends that suggest they have been training others from both the Sahel and the Maghreb countries: Morocco, Tunisia, Libya, Nigeria, Niger, Chad, Senegal, Mauritania and Burkina Faso.”

April 14, 2008

In case you didn't know -- and you probably didn't because the MSM didn't report it-- the Philippine government recently increased security around certain western embassies:

Makati City police director superintendent Gilbert Cruz said that the embassies of the United Kingdom, Israel and Australia in particular were facing increased scrutiny and protection.

“The added regular police patrols in the embassies will complement the existing security arrangements, which include the embassies' own guards and Philippine Marines personnel,” Cruz told Radio dzBB on Friday.

The threat against embassies was also confirmed by Captain Carlo Ferrer, spokesman of the army’s national capital region command.

August 07, 2007

For all of you who were unable to attend yesterday’s town hall meeting at the US Embassy, the main subject was security in Yemen. The Charge d’Affaires reminded the attendees that, following the attack in Marib on July 2 and the car bomb discovered in Aden shortly thereafter, the terrorist threat in Yemen has evolved. We are now experiencing terrorist actions previously unseen in Yemen. The Charge reminded the attendees that there is an active Al-Qaeda presence in Yemen, and that western interests may continue to be targeted. This evolving threat is not temporary, and will be with us for the foreseeable future.

With this in mind, the Charge stressed the importance of taking active steps to reduce one’s profile in Yemen and to enhance personal protective measures. The Regional Security Officer (RSO) suggested that, just as Embassy employees and their families are instructed, all Americans in Yemen should vary their routes and times to and from home and work, avoid large groups of westerners, and limit travel within Sanaa to secure venues. The Embassy continues to approve official travel outside of Sanaa on a case-by-case basis. The RSO also encouraged American citizens to report any potential security threats to the Embassy immediately.

August 05, 2007

08/02/2007 Sources in the so-called "Opposition Gulf" in London said that it expects that "Al Qa'ida" will soon resume its operations in some of the Gulf States following the appointment by Osama bin Laden of a new Emir who would oversee the entire Gulf region.

These circles believe that "Al Qa'ida"'s new strategy in the Gulf is to attack domestic and foreign ships as well tourist ships and oil tankers, especially in the Gulf waters. These attacks would be so big and effective that the water pollution in large Gulf areas would stop oil export to Europe and other countries for long periods."

al-Seyassah, August 2, 2007

I think what piques my interest about this post is the fact that the source is the community of Al Qaeda leaders (oops!) sympathizers in London. It's always been close to the action, sort to speak, and there are many individuals happy to talk about their native insights into Al Qaeda's operations. However, the idea that water pollution would effectively stop oil exports sounds sketchy to me. Oil slicks and other disasters like that have never been known to halt maritime traffic for long, if at all. But I suspect that Al Qaeda continues to plan major attacks against Gulf-based energy infrastructure like crude processing facilities in Saudi Arabia.

As for tourist spots in the Gulf and elsewhere, they have been Al Qaeda's targets before (Egypt, Turkey (thwarted), Kenya, and Indonesia ), and it appears likely that they will remain targets for quite some time. Tourist spots (especially in the Gulf and Sinai) are soft and easy targets, and guarantee too much senseless carnage: ideal for Al Qaeda's purposes. Plus, a strategy targeting a country's tourism industry was laid out in The Management of Savagery in 2005. Along with energy, tourism represents the core of their strategy of economic jihad against the West and Middle East governments that want to work with the West.

If Al Qaeda is incapable of a large-scale attack inside the United States, I suspect they will continue to explore tactics of economic jihad, arguing as they do that an attack that cuts the flow of oil to the US is as devastating as any 9-11 carnage. However, I don't think economic jihad has ever been waged on the scale Al Qaeda is attempting right now (through their published articles and rulings), using asymmetrical tactics on a global scale.

July 08, 2007

BBC Monitoring translates an Al-Watan (KSA) newspaper article reporting that Gulf states could be facing a "wave of terrorism" targeting oil and gas installations:

The Kuwaiti security authorities have reinforced their security measures around oil installations, foreign missions, and sensitive sites in the state in anticipation of terrorist attacks against them.

Security sources noted that these measures have been taken in view of recent terrorist attacks and information received by higher quarters about the possibility of terrorist attacks.

Diplomatic Kuwaiti sources told Al-Watan they expected a number of Gulf States to suffer a wave of terrorism like several Arab and foreign capitals have recently. They noted that the emergency meeting of defence and foreign ministers and security directors, which started in Riyadh on 3 July, was held against the backdrop of simultaneous warnings received by Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates about possible imminent terrorist attacks that will mainly target oil installations.

July 07, 2007

Analysts and diplomats said recent visits to Morocco by top European and U.S security officials underscored the imminence of the threat as well as the role the North African kingdom was playing in the U.S.-declared global fight against terrorism.

They pointed to repeated al Qaeda threats to hit Morocco and other North African states, citing the appearance on video early this week of Ayman al-Zawahri, al Qaeda's number two, to urge the overthrow of what he called "corrupt" Muslim governments.

It cited "reliable intelligence information" but gave no details about any specific attack threat.

One security analyst said: "I suspect the authorities made an arrest and obtained precise information. That information could have been corroborated by intelligence coming from Western allies of Morocco."

March 10, 2007

The London Times is reporting that British authorities have broken up a plot to attack the UK internet, by targeting the telecommunications infrastructure that supports UK traffic:

SCOTLAND YARD has uncovered evidence that Al-Qaeda has been plotting to bring down the internet in Britain, causing chaos to business and the London Stock Exchange.

In a series of raids, detectives have recovered computer files revealing that terrorist suspects had targeted a high-security internet “hub” in London.

The facility, in Docklands, houses the channel through which almost every bit of information on the internet passes in or out of Britain.

The suspects, who were arrested, had targeted the headquarters of Telehouse Europe, which houses Europe’s biggest “web hotel”, containing dozens of “servers” , the boxes which contain the information that makes up the web. SCOTLAND YARD has uncovered evidence that Al-Qaeda has been plotting to bring down the internet in Britain, causing chaos to business and the London Stock Exchange.

In a series of raids, detectives have recovered computer files revealing that terrorist suspects had targeted a high-security internet “hub” in London.

The facility, in Docklands, houses the channel through which almost every bit of information on the internet passes in or out of Britain.

The suspects, who were arrested, had targeted the headquarters of Telehouse Europe, which houses Europe’s biggest “web hotel”, containing dozens of “servers” , the boxes which contain the information that makes up the web.

The report also includes this piece of news:

Last year MI5 uncovered intelligence which suggested that Islamic terrorist suspects had carried out reconnaissance of the huge Bacton complex of gas terminals on the Norfolk coast. The threat led to the deployment of armed guards around the plant.

A senior Whitehall security official said the internet plotters appeared to be planning to infiltrate the “hub”, possibly to blow it up from the inside, according to evidence on a computer hard drive seized in raids on the homes of terror suspects in southern England last year.

“The Telehouse facility was the subject of intense reconnaissance. The evidence suggests that it was one of a range of options considered by the suspects,” the official said.

February 21, 2007

U.S. Embassy Islamabad issued the following Warden Message on February 21:

The U.S. Mission has received non-specific information regarding terrorist attacks, possibly suicide attacks, against U.S. interests or places frequented by westerners in the major cities in Pakistan, such as Islamabad, Karachi, Lahore, and Peshawar. Targets could also include Christian churches, markets, the diplomatic enclave and convention center (Islamabad), and other crowded areas. Americans are advised to take every precaution, avoid popular markets and restaurants, and vary routes and times.

The Embassy would like to remind the American citizen community of the need to stay alert, be aware of your surroundings, reduce travel to minimum acceptable levels, act self-defensively at all times. We remind American citizens that threats, protests and demonstrations may occur throughout Pakistan without prior notice or warning and to avoid all demonstrations and protests.

Terrorism: Iraqi Resistance Groups Warn 'All Muslims' To Leave Oil Facilities 'To Protect Your Lives' On 13 February, a jihadist website posted a statement issued by "all of the Iraqi resistance groups" in which a warning was issued to all Muslims working in or residing near petroleum facilities to leave those areas.

A translation of the statement follows:

"Praise be to God. Prayers and peace be upon the messenger of God and upon his family, companions, and those who follow him.

"To all Muslims who work in the petroleum facilities inside Iraq and those residing near them, we inform you of the necessity to immediately leave work in these facilities and stay away from them in order to protect your lives and the lives of your families or else we are innocent of your blood.

"All media outlets should disseminate this statement or else they will be responsible to God for the lives of the Muslims.

January 23, 2007

TheBlotter reminds us of the unusual case of Mohammed Yusef Mullawala, a 28 yo Pakistani male who entered the US on a student visa, never attended classes, and then caught the attention of a Rhode Island truck driving school (to earn a HAZMAT license) when he said he was only interested in learning to drive forward.

Instructors at the Nationwide Tractor Trailer Driving School in
Smithfield, R.I., became suspicious when Mullawala showed up last
November.

"He kept saying he wanted a HAZMAT license, and he wanted it quickly and that he did not want to learn to back the truck up, only to be able to drive it forward," said Darleen Crawford, president of the driving school, who reported her concerns to Highway Watch, a national Homeland Security program for highway safety and anti-terrorism.

His lawyer calls all this attention to his as "profiling," blah, blah blah.

What is known (in open source anyway) about the case fits perfectly with the profile of a Pakistani-based Al Qaeda operative, and, if true, offers some idea of what Al Qaeda was is planning for the US. Whereas many of the 90s-era Al Qaeda operatives were ethnic Arabs, many post-9-11 operatives appear to come from Pakistan, India and other Southwest Asian countries. Over the last three years, Western countries have uncovered numerous cells of Pakistani and Indian operatives, many include young men of Southwest Asian descent who were born and raised in the West:

Targeting of large public places, including the Ministry of Sound nightclub and a large shopping center

Financial buildings and public spaces in Sydney & Melbourne

Large banking institutions in NY, NJ, and DC

Airliners & Mass Transit

Almost all of the plots (except the 7/7 Tube bombing) included an element of large trucks or other vehicles packed with explosives. There's also the reported testimony of Lodi resident Hamid Hayat who admitted to training in Pakistan for attacks in the US that included financial institutions, government buildings, and shopping centers. This sounds eerily like the attack being plotted by Issa al-Hindi in the UK.

The major plot surrounding the arrest of Issa al-Hindi was a plot to target financial institutions in NY, NJ and DC, including the World Bank and IMF (more on this later). Issa al-Hindi is probably the highest ranking Western Al Qaeda operative to be arrested. He plead guilty to various terrorism charges in October 2006, and is serving a life sentence. His plot to bomb financial institutions in the US is the most comprehensive post 9/11 plot discovered. Most of it was planned in Pakistan.

According to American operative Mohammed Babar, Issa al-Hindi was present at a major Al Qaeda summit in spring of 2003 in Pakistan. Babar has testified that he attended a 2003 summit that included senior Al Qaeda operatives like al-Hindi, and Adnan al-Shukrijumah (still at large).

I hope you see the pattern here. As the Airliners plot shows, Al Qaeda likes to return to the same targets until they get the results they want. With multiple operatives and plot uncovered it's not hard to surmise that the next attack on US soil may use car bombs (VBIEDs) to attack public spaces like large urban nightclubs or huge shopping centers, or include an attack targeting financial institutions like large banks or stock exchanges are still very viable targets.

The Airliners plot is still a possibility also, because they have yet to succeed, and the 7/7 Tube bombings are a possibility because Al Qaeda was so successful they even commemorated the first anniversary with a video. In the video Ayman al-Zawahiri praised Shehzad Tanweer. Zawahiri also praises him again in his December 06 video,

You must realize that a new period of world history has begun. The period of the offspring of Abd al-Aziz Al-Sa'ud, the grandsons of the Sharif Husayn and Sadat, Mubarak and Arafat has passed, and the period of Khalid Islambouli, Abdullah Azzam, Abu Hafs the Commander, Khattab, Muhammad Atta, Muhammad Siddique Khan, and Shehzad Tanwir (Allah have mercy on them) has begun. And if you are unable to comprehend this transformation, then blame no one but yourselves.

That makes me wonder if the list of names isn't some sort of trigger for an attack.

Based on some of this information, it's reasonable to suspect Mohammed Yusef Mullawala motivations for earning a Hazmat license. Without further information, I can only speculate on Mr. Mullawala's real motivations (after all, he may just be a dufus), but a reliable past history of Al Qaeda using Southwest Asian operatives for large-scale VBIED attacks puts any Pakistani gentlemen who only wants to learn to drive the Hazmat truck forward immediately on a list of suspicious characters.

December 28, 2006

State Department just just published an update to its Warden Message for Americans traveling in Goa:

The U.S. Government wishes to remind American citizens living in and visiting India of the need to maintain vigilance in the new year, particularly in light of ongoing reports in the Indian press regarding possible terrorist threats to Goa, an area popular with tourists, during the busy holiday season. The Indian government has increased its security presence in Goa in response to these reports, given the density of nightclubs and restaurants that attract foreign tourists. American citizens may wish to read the Department of State's current Worldwide Caution for more information on the general threat to American interests overseas.

December 26, 2006

An astonishing report from Indian Express that links Islamist terrorists recently arrested in Jeddah with a plot to target "popular spots" in Goa. I can't find this report on the Indian Express website (the full-text here is drawn from Dialog). However, there is this IBN report on increased security in around Goa during the Christmas holiday.

The
Centre is considering issuing a New Year terror alert to Goa. This
comes after Indian missions in West Asia and North Africa reported that
intelligence inputs warning of a terror strike in Goa tallied with
information obtained from interrogation of members of Islamic militant
groups arrested in these regions. The
Centre is now mulling directions to the state government seeking all
steps to keep the tourist destination - particularly beaches and night
clubs - secure during festivities leading up to and including New
Year's Day. Sources said Indian missions in Yemen, Algeria and Saudi Arabia
had been asked to follow up intelligence inputs after Israel's advisory
on Goa earlier this month. These inputs were based on information after
the arrest of Yemenese and Algerian
militants in Jeddah, which showed that militant groups had done a recce
of popular spots in Goa. A laptop with them had detailed plans of a
possible militant strike, intelligence sources said. It is learnt that
the Indian mission had checked with the countries and gone through
interrogation reports of the arrested
militants for corroboration. Sources said some of the information
tallied and this was cause for concern. Officially, the threat is being
downplayed. Goa Director General of Police B S Brar told The Indian
Express: "Goa is safe, there is no threat." Among the measures the
state police has put in place are patrol parties along the beaches and
other popular tourist spots in Goa, Quick Reaction Teams (QRTs),
checkposts at entry points from neighbouring states and commandos in
vans across the city. On December 13, Israel had issued an alert,
saying a "concrete threat" existed for Goa during late December and
over the New Year in light of terrorist threats by Al-Qaeda. Israeli
nationals were advised to avoid staying in Goa during this period.

December 21, 2006

With talks of an "imminent threat" to UK and other European countries, it's interesting to see that the State Department continues to be concerned about threats to Americans in Algeria. They've released an updated consular travel warning for the country:

The Bureau of Consular Affairs released the following Travel Warning on December 20:

This
Travel Warning is being updated to alert Americans to recent terrorist
attacks in Algeria. The threat from terrorism in many areas continues
to pose a significant security risk. This supersedes the Travel Warning
issued on November 22, 2006.

The Department of State urges
U.S. citizens who travel to Algeria to evaluate carefully the risk
posed to their personal safety. Sustained small-scale terrorist attacks
including bombings, false roadblocks, kidnappings, ambushes, and
assassinations occur, primarily in rural and remote sections of the
country. Additionally, there were three terrorist attacks against
police stations and military barracks in the eastern suburbs of Algiers
in October 2006, and a bomb attack targeting a bus transporting foreign
workers of a U.S. company in the western part of the city in December
2006.

The Department of State cautions those U.S. citizens who
travel to Algeria, especially the mountainous northern regions and the
southern regions near Tamanrasset, despite this Travel Warning, to use
reputable local agents and tour guides who are able to make reliable
security arrangements.

December 11, 2006

There's an absurd L.A. Timesreport going around refuting a new claim by former Attorney General John Ashcroft that Al Qaeda suspect Saleh al-Marri was involved in the thwarted (for now) plot to attack West Coast targets.

In a new allegation, former Attorney General John Ashcroft says al-Marri was sent to the United States a day before the Sept. 11 attacks to plan strikes on West Coast targets, including the tallest building in Los Angeles.

Ashcroft's claim -- made in a new book -- is the first time any U.S. official has directly linked al-Marri to the West Coast attacks that al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden allegedly hoped would follow the deaths of 3,000 people in New York, Washington and Pennsylvania.

Al-Marri has been designated an enemy combatant, and this is of course a reason for the aging anger-mongers to protest. However, that's expected. What isn't expected is the vehement reaction the claim is received from the LA Times "reporter," Richard Serrano. Here he uses unsubstantiated claim of institutional division to frame al-Marri's imprisonment:

The dispute is spilling onto the public stage as the Bush administration finds itself under mounting legal and public pressure to provide some form of justice for captives arrested in the U.S. and abroad. The disagreement also shows there are deep divisions within the government over what to make of enemy combatants.

Instead of reporting here, Serrano editorializes, implying that Al-Marri's status as an enemy combatant is still a contentious issue. When in fact there are few government officials willing to walk off the job in protest for this Al Qaeda terrorist.

Serrano also implies that Ashcroft might be lying and timed the release of the information to influence Al-Marri's upcoming military tribunal. Instead of taking Ashcroft's position into consideration, the Times "reporter" quotes three unsubstantiated "law enforcement officials," who deny knowing of any connection:

But three federal law enforcement officials asked about the allegation said they are mystified by Ashcroft's assertions. And a court document that alleges al-Marri -- a U.S.-educated citizen of Qatar and Saudi Arabia -- has deep ties to al-Qaida makes no mention of any role in an assault on the West Coast.

Speaking confidentially because they did not want a public fight with the former attorney general, Washington officials said the West Coast plot was broken up by arrests overseas that did not involve al-Marri.

They said that al-Marri was sent to the United States as an al-Qaida "sleeper agent" and was not assigned to prepare an attack on any specific target. They said al-Qaida leaders hoped he could hide unnoticed with his family in Peoria, Ill., where he had once lived and attended school.

"He was never given any assignment," said one of the officials familiar with government intelligence on the West Coast plot. "KSM may have considered him as an operative, but that's about it."

He acknowledged, however, that Ashcroft's contention "might still be a possibility."

No shit, really? The possibility is actually a probability, because Al Qaeda has proven again and again that it likes to return to its fully developed plans. They were ready for a do-over with the Bojinka plot in August. Depending on far along Al Qaeda planners were in developing the plot, the West Coast operationcould have easily survived al-Marri.

What perhaps isn't clear to Serrano is that John Ashcroft is probably
the only senior government official to know specific details of
Al-Marri's case. As Attorney General, Ashcroft would have been
responsible for monitoring surveillance activities against Al-Marri.
He would have also been the one who signed the FISA court application
request for surveillance.

A reporter familiar with national security issues would have known this.