Wednesday, August 3, 2016

Convention bounce persists, Clinton gains Republican support

What a month. At the end of a series of tumultuous events and two political conventions, the presidential race is more or less where it was before it all began: Hillary Clinton has a clear lead.

All seven national surveys conducted since the Democratic convention show her ahead, by an average of nearly seven percentage points.

The latest CNN poll, which showed Mrs. Clinton ahead by nine points, suggests that she made her biggest gains among friendly groups, like young voters, supporters of Bernie Sanders and nonwhite voters. These gains could prove relatively durable. Notably, these gains have been enough to push Mrs. Clinton to 50 percent in three of the post-convention surveys.

[Snip] Read the reasons why cheering may be premature in the Times' report.

If Mrs. Clinton retains most of her gains over the coming weeks, Mr. Trump’s chances in the race will start to look fairly bleak. Surveys conducted a few weeks after the conventions are far more predictive of the result than those taken ahead of or during the conventions.

NB: "No modern presidential candidate who trailed in the polls a few weeks after the conventions has gone on to win the popular vote."

This group wants Clinton in the White House, not because they agree with her on issues, but (1) they think Trump is a threat to our national security, and (2) they see Clinton as more likely to work across the aisle.

The thing is, though, we should not expect much (any?) support from these folks down ballot. They will support congressional candidates who, like themselves, are Republicans who decline to get on board with Trump. What a President Clinton will find "across the aisle" will still be rough going.