Macedonia
PeaceSpecial to Antiwar.com
by Aleksandar
Jokic
August 13, 2001

The Framework Agreement for Peace is due
to be signed this week by the government of Macedonia and someone who
allegedly represents the Albanian rebels. I say "allegedly"
because the rebels are not present at the negotiating table and it is
not known whether they would adhere to the agreement. But what is known
is that the Albanians have no desire to stay in the joint state, if
they can help it  they want to carve out western Macedonia (at least)
and declare independence. The Macedonian government is aware of the
Albanians' intentions and has no reason to put much trust in the Framework
Agreement for Peace. Whether or not the agreement is signed, this is
probably not even the beginning of the end of the fighting in Macedonia.

This has been the bloodiest week yet. Macedonia lost 10 soldiers
in an ambush, then, a day later, 8 more were killed by a land mine outside
Skopje. The US wildly praised Macedonia for its role in facilitating
the policies of NATO in the region, especially during the 78 day bombing
campaign against Yugoslavia  but now it's Macedonia's turn to get
the same treatment. This is what Macedonia signed up for when it dashed
out of Yugoslavia in 1992. Macedonia could exist in relative calm and
security only within the larger state of Yugoslavia.

There are two very different groups living in Macedonia and the
key differentiating factor is not language, religion or hatred, but
radically different birthrates. The Macedonians' birthrate is low, like
elsewhere in Europe, while the Albanians' birthrate is similar to that
of Bangladesh. I witnessed the result of this disparity way back in
1981 when I visited the city of Tetovo, which was by no means a purely
Albanian city back then. A Macedonian was selling his house and an Albanian
neighbor was inquiring about the price. After he heard the asking price
he said something to the effect of: "Why should we pay you anything
when we will come soon to claim all these houses for free."

This
demographic competition would not produce anything more significant
than minor skirmishes were it not for the incoherent behavior of the
West, and particularly the US government, which offers declarative support
to the legitimate, democratic government of Macedonia while thwarting
Macedonia's efforts to obtained guns from Ukraine (guns for which
Macedonia has already paid). The Albanian rebels, of course, get to
play with the latest generation of NATO arms. If left alone, Macedonian forces would easily squash the rebellion,
but instead they are forced to negotiate with rebels and sign detrimental
agreements that will deal a deathblow to the state of Macedonia as it
exists now.

This
is the pattern: the rebels mount attacks on the police and army. The
Macedonian government forces respond and when they threaten to eliminate
the rebels, like in Aracinovo, the US and EU (who, together, believe
that they represent the whole "international community") step in, and
call for restraint, cease-fire and negotiations. Meanwhile, the rebels
extract their men from the trouble zone and open another front against
the government forces.

From a wider historical perspective of the destruction of former
Yugoslavia we see the West-to-East movement of armed conflict: Slovenia,
Croatia, Bosnia, Kosovo. Will Macedonia be the last or is this a prelude
to more easterly military interventions? And how far east will they
go? All the way to the Caspian, perhaps?