Stanford football: Game-by-game predictions and schedule analysis

Here’s one way to summarize the season that awaits Stanford in the post-Andrew Luck era:

Welcome to third-and-long.

It has been four years since the Cardinal faced long-yardage situations with any regularity — four years since it ran into the teeth of the defense for no gain on first down … took a sack on second down … and then faced third-and-gotta-throw.

Luck was the master at decoding defenses, changing plays at the line of scrimmage and getting Stanford out of troublesome situations:

* He was the primary reason Stanford led the nation in the fewest number of negative-yardage plays last season (3.2 per game; no one else was even close).

* He was the primary reason Stanford led the nation in red zone efficiency last season (97 percent).

* He was the primary reason Stanford converted an astounding 51.7 percent of its third downs over a three-year period. Luck didn’t simply make big plays on third down; he made small plays on first and second down so Stanford faced third-and-four instead of third-and-nine.

And those three categories, in essence, are the game: If you execute in the red zone, avoid bad plays (including turnovers) and win third down, victories will follow. Many, many victories.

Success in those instances made life much easier for Stanford’s defense, which was usually well rested, playing with the lead and in advantageous field position.

The unit could be better this fall than it was last fall and not have the stats or the success to show for it.

Without Luck working his magic in the red zone and on third down … and without him finding a way to gain positive yardage on virtually every play … life will be much tougher for everyone.

Aug. 31: vs. San Jose State
Result: WinRecord: 1-0Comment: Stanford would be wise to make short work of the Spartans using its talent advantage on the line of scrimmage. If the game is close deep into the third quarter and the pressure mounts on Cardinal QB Josh Nunes, anything could happen.

Sept. 8: vs. DukeResult: WinRecord: 2-0Comment: The Cardinal broke open a close game last year in Durham. Even though the Blue Devils return 17 starters, Stanford will dominate behind Nunes, who should be sharper and more relaxed than in Week One.

Sept. 15: vs. USC
Result: LossRecord: 2-1/0-1Comment: The much-anticipated rematch of the 2011 classic … which was a rematch of the ’10 thriller … which was a rematch of the ’09 “What’s Your Deal” game … shapes up as a letdown. USC will use big plays in the passing game to take an early lead, at which point the Cardinal will be forced to abandon its running game — exactly the situation it hoped to avoid. The one-dimensional attack won’t keep pace with the high-powered USC offense.

Sept. 22: ByeComment: In the case of Thursday night Pac-12 conference games, both teams are given the previous Saturday off. Hence both Stanford and Washington will shut it down on the 22nd — no discernable advantage either way. For Stanford, the bye might have been a tad more useful two or three weeks later.

Sept. 27 (Thursday): at WashingtonResult: LossRecord: 2-2/0-2Comment: Stanford has won the past two by a combined 106-21 and dominated the line of scrimmage. The Huskies will be revved up and should have success defensively against Nunes. His first road game won’t be mistake-free.

Oct. 6: vs. ArizonaResult: WinRecord: 3-2/1-2Comment: This is all about matchups: Arizona doesn’t have what it takes to counteract the Cardinal up front. It was true in ’10 and ’11 and will be the case again this fall.

Oct. 13: at Notre DameResult: WinRecord: 4-2/1-2Comment: Another rough road environment for Nunes, but the Cardinal gets a break: Notre Dame’s difficult early-season schedule includes an anticipated Oct. 6 date with Miami. Beyond the timing, however, the Irish simply don’t have the overall team speed to confound Stanford. Nor do they have an answer for Stepfan Taylor.

Oct. 20: at Cal
Result: LossRecord: 4-3/1-3Comment: Tough call, but I’ll take the team whose quarterback has experienced a rivalry game over a team whose QB is a rivalry rookie. (Even Luck made a critical mistake in his first Big Game.) Add Cal’s speed and home field to the equation, and the Bears regain the Axe.

Oct. 27: vs. Washington StateResult: WinRecord: 5-3/2-3Comment: A tough spot psychologically for the Cardinal following Notre Dame and Big Game (and WSU will be coming off a bye). Were it in Pullman, I’d take the Cougars. But at home, Stanford finds a way.

Nov. 3: at ColoradoResult: WinRecord: 6-3/3-3Comment: The altitude is a factor for 15, maybe 20 minutes, and then the Cardinal takes control behind Taylor. The Buffaloes, it’s worth noting, will be coming off back-to-back games against USC and Oregon, both on the road.

Nov. 10: vs. Oregon State
Result: WinRecord: 7-3/4-3Comment: The winning streak continues at home against the struggling Beavers as Stanford settles into its post-Luck identity: Good, not elite.

Nov. 17: at OregonResult: LossRecord: 7-4/4-4Comment: Won’t be as close as the ’10 or ’11 games, and they weren’t very close. Not hard to envision Nunes spending a few series on the sideline, regaining his composure as Brett Nottingham stares down the Ducks (unsuccessfully).

Nov. 24: at UCLAResult: WinRecord: 8-4/5-4Comment: Nunes plays well in front of friends and family — he’s from Upland — and the Cardinal takes full advantage of a post-USC letdown by the Bruins.

Bowl berth: YesComment: The BCS is out of reach for Stanford — either as an at-large or automatic qualifier — but the Cardinal could very well land in the Alamo or Holiday bowls.

Jon Wilner

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@SEC Fan – losing DeCastro and Martin leaves some big holes for sure, but people forget that going into last season there were questions about Stanford’s OL after losing two starters as well.

The reality is that Stanford has HUGE DEPTH on both sides of the line, and while the starters start, the next 3-5 guys down the depth chart play a good amount as well. So what you lose is 2-3 out of 8-9 on the OL rather than 2 out of 5.

The back & forth above about storming fields and beating up mascots is so damn childish on BOTH SIDES it’s ridiculous. It’s one thing to stay in the stands and root your heart out, it’s another to go on the field and taunt/incite the opposing fans. Defending your turf means winning at home, and if you look at the BG records, Stanford has defended its turf and Cal has not. BG @Cal is a tossup, BG @Stanford considerably favors the red team.

More useful, StanTheMan, is Stanfurd’s BG record during the Tedford Era: 1-4 @ Cal, 2-3 @Stanfurd.

StanTheMan

10 years is too short a timeframe. It can too easily be impacted by a single bad HC choice – or in the case of the last decade, two.

Pluto99

BM – I always get a chuckle when Cal fans stick out their chests and proudly announce the Tedford BG record that is heavily weighted towards beating up on Teevins and Harris’ led teams. I’m pretty sure I would dominate a basketball game against St. Ann’s school for the blind 8th grade basketball team. Do you think Montgomery will give me a schollie after he sees the game tape?