The study projects that, by 2016, the average price of a home in Hoover will be $295,185, compared to $324,036 if there were no change in bus service. The number of total home sales in Hoover likely will be 1,624 instead of 1,962, and the number of new home sales likely will be 284 instead of 405, the study predicts.

"It is our conclusion that the availability of school transportation provides value to a community. Its value is perceived to be a given, stable, and factored positive that adds to the desirability of a community," the study says. "Therefore, it is considered an established community element of steady and increasing home appeal and improving home values.

"Our anticipated outcome over the next few years of reduced school transportation disrupts the projected positive home trends," the study says. "Instead, our forecast is an initial leveling to slight decline trending for total home sales, a leveling trend for home pricing, and an initial leveling to slight decline in new home building."

The projections worsen over the longer term. By 2020, the average home price in Hoover likely will be $283,553, versus $371,839 if there were no changes in bus service, the study says. That's a difference of $88,286. Total home sales likely will be 1,497 instead of 2,524, and new home sales likely will be 259 instead of 661, the study predicts.

The elimination of public school bus service in Hoover also likely will have broader economic impacts, affecting employment opportunities and retail sales, the study says.

Hoover's population likely will age and fewer upwardly mobile families with school-age children will move into the city, the study predicts. Employers also likely will be more sensitive about locating in a city with school controversy, thereby affecting employment growth, the study says.

There now are an estimated 41,900 jobs in Hoover. The study projects the number of jobs in Hoover will drop to 39,800 by 2020 because of the loss of public school buses instead of increasing to 53,300. That's a projected loss of 13,500 jobs.

Because the greatest retail spending is traditionally associated with families with school-age children and families that are experiencing upward earnings, retail sales likely will not grow as much as they would otherwise, the study predicts.

Hoover's annual retail sales this year are projected to be at $1.97 billion. By 2020, retail sales likely will grow to $2.1 billion instead of $3.2 billion that likely would be achieved with public school bus service provided, the study predicts.

The Zanola Co. study noted that while some other school districts in the Birmingham-Hoover metro area, such as Vestavia Hills and Mountain Brook, do not have school bus service for most students, Hoover's school bus service has been a part of the value of living in Hoover. Therefore, "it is our opinion that it is not applicable to compare Hoover to areas that have been without the value of school transportation," the study says.

The study also acknowledges that about 26 percent of Hoover's current annual retail sales (about $516 million) can be attributed to people who live outside of Hoover.

The head of the company that conducted the study, who is from St. Louis, is expected to be at the Monday meeting of the Hoover City Council to go over it and answer any questions that city leaders or the public may have, Smith said.

Smith said he told the consulting company that he was not looking for the study to provide any particular outcome or back up any particular theory. He just wanted an honest assessment by an impartial, outside entity that did not have any stake in the issue, he said.

Smith said he doesn't plan to comment a lot on the results of the study but he hopes the school board can use it as it moves forward with its determinations.

"I'm not trying to tell them what they should do," Smith said. "Theirs are hard choices to make, but ultimately it is their decision to make."

Hoover Mayor Gary Ivey said he had not yet had an opportunity to read the complete report and would rather study it more closely before commenting about it. If the consultant who produced the report is at Monday's council meeting to answer questions, that should help a lot of people in understanding and assessing it better, Ivey said.

Monday's City Council meeting is set for 6 p.m. at the Hoover Municipal Center at 100 Municipal Lane.

This post was updated numerous times with additional information from the study and comments from Hoover Councilman Gene Smith and Hoover Mayor Gary Ivey, as well as school board President Paulette Pearson's decision not to comment.