Thursday, February 11, 2010

2009 Ultra High Relief Double Eagle Prices

More more than one month has passed since sales of the 2009 Ultra High Relief Double Eagle Gold Coin concluded at the US Mint. I thought it would be an interesting exercise to examine the recent sales prices for the coins on the secondary market.

In recent weeks, the premiums for many collectible gold coins have experienced a sharp decline. This has come amidst an extended decline in the price of gold, which brought the price from its high of $1,212.50 reached on December 2, 2009 to the recent low of $1,058.00 per ounce reached on February 5, 2010.

I have been generally aware of the price levels of the UHR Double Eagles, but it was very interesting to do a more comprehensive evaluation. I compiled all of the data for completed eBay auctions from January 28 to February 10. I recorded the prices for any listings resulting in a sale and the basic aspects of the coin (raw, PCGS, or NGC grade). I came up with a total of 102 prices, which I think provided a reasonable amount of data for examining trends and averages. I did not take into account any factors such as the duration of the auction, time of day, whether it was an auction or Buy It Now, feedback of the sellers, etc.

First, I tried to examine the data to see if prices were generally rising or falling, but I also wanted to take into account the price of gold. The trend of the UHR price levels could be a bit difficult to pin down, because of the different price levels for various grades and raw coins. To narrow the focus, I picked the biggest group, raw coins, and looked at the average price for the first five days of data when the average price of gold was $1,080.59 and the last five days of data when the average price of gold was $1,062.02.

The average price for the Ultra High Relief Double Eagle in original US Mint packaging for the first five days was $1,520.50. The average price for a similar coin during the last five days examined was $1,549.06. As the price of gold was falling, the prices paid for the UHR Double Eagle held up and even showed gains. I think this is a good indication of the long term staying power and continued premiums for the coin.

One of the most surprising things I saw when running through the data were the prices being paid for coins which have been graded NGC MS 70 PL. NGC uses the "PL" designation for coins which exhibit proof like surfaces.

During the period, eight coins graded NGC MS 70 PL were sold. Some prices from early in the period were $4,100 and $4,150. The most recent three coins sold for around $4,500 each. NGC's online population report indicates that 589 coins have been graded MS 70 PL compared to 4,611 coins graded MS 70 without the designation.

As a final exercise, I calculated the average prices realized for 2009 Ultra High Relief Double Eagles across various options. The results of these calculations are below.

Original Packaging

$1,543.48

PCGS MS69

$1,615.25

PCGS MS70

$2,031.25

PCGS MS70 FS

$2,229.60

NGC MS 69

$1,547.00

NGC MS 69 PL

$2,412.80

NGC MS 70

$1,836.45

NGC MS 70 PL

$4,268.00

I thought it was interesting that the average price paid for a UHR Double Eagle in the original box was $1,543.48. This is just a little bit above the highest price that the US Mint had charged for the coin. The price of $1,539 was briefly in effect when the average price of gold had risen to a range between $1,150 and $1,099.99. The lowest price the US Mint charged for the coin was $1,189, in effect when sales first began on January 19, 2009.

If anyone is interested, the price data gathered from eBay can be found in this spreadsheet.

The UHR has disassociated itself from spot gold like the old commemorative silver did (the Spanish Trail price has nothing to do with spot silver). Even the Huguenot with a larger mintage (142 k) than the UHR commands multiples of "spot" in good condition.

I don't mean to go off topic.But a question was raised in our group about the Mexican Mint and where it is.I tried to locate anything on the web such as Mexico Mint web site and can't find anything.Does anyone know if they have a web site showing their products with prices and where their mint is located? If you know can you please post it here so I can get this info back to my group.

I was wondering if anyone has both a MS70 PL and MS70. I would love to hear an "unbiased" opinion on whether there are any real differences between the two, or is the PL just another grading gimmick like "First Strikes" and "Early Releases"?

I think the "proof-like" distinction is real. It sure looks like it from the pictures I've seen.

I sold my original UHR bought in January 2009 sight unseen in the sealed mailer box, and the guy who bought it had it graded by NGC and it came back an MS-70 PL. It was quite a beauty from the photo he e-mailed me.

"Do you have any idea when the Mint will stop selling 2009 Lincoln pennies?"

The US Mint has authorization to continue selling the coins through June 30, 2010. See the end of this post: http://mintnewsblog.blogspot.com/2009/10/us-mint-news-updates.html

At this point, I guessing that they will keep them up for sale until they sell out of June 30, whichever comes soonest.

"I wonder how many pcgs MS70's would grade Proof-Like under ngc's guidelines??? Their count may be misleading Any reports from the new Lincoln ceremonies??"

Regarding some of the PCGS MS70's- I was thinking the same thing. The big price difference creates an opportunity for someone to identify the PCGS coins that would qualify for PL and cross them over to NGC.

There will be a first hand report from the ceremony coming this morning!

Michael - That was why I asked my question whether there was any 'real' difference between the MS70s and MS70 PLs. My UHR came back as a MS70 (which I was happy with), but I really don't see how it could be more "proof-like" when I compare it with other proof coins. Not crying sour grapes, but the "proof-like" designation appears to be extremely subjective. I guess if I was able to see a "proof-like" and compare, I would understand (or not).

I haven't seen a side by side comparison of PL and non-PL UHR's, but I have seen the designation given by NGC to other modern MS coins. These coins had reflective deep mirror like surfaces, very different from typical strikes.

I'll see if I can get an article or pictures with a side by side comparison for the UHR.

Bowtie-

Both PCGS and NGC have clubs that you can join to submit coins directly. There is an annual fee, but you get a certain number of free grading submissions along with your membership.

Otherwise, you can submit the coins through an authorized PCGS or NGC dealer.

just some food for thought: part of me wishes i should i have bought UHR, but instead i used my funds to buy the last remaining Double Prosperity Sets available for sale in the beginning of 2009. i am not sure which is a better by for an investment, but as a collector, i am still happy to have the double prosperity set. i have not found any for sale in recent days for a reasonable price. i guess it's just being a collector and purchasing what you like.

Look, PCGS NGC they are both well respected.Why such a huge deal in the difference in price.It isn't like one is a Mercedes and the other is a Chevrolet.They are both high end organizations.If there is any weirdness it is in the grading of Proof Like.It is either proof or not.Just another example of mine is better then yours. Corporate America.

Thanks again Michael for the response on doing a picture comparison of the MS70s and MS70 PLs. Would be really interesting to see.

The UHR is a really nice coin and I'm glad I picked one up. That said, a double prosperity set is a great buy and I wouldn't be sorry for that. You got both the uncirc 2008 W Eagle and Buffalo...for less than $1100 in January 2009. Great deal!!! I bought one myself as well.

I just graded UHRDE at NGC and I received the capsule back. It was very beatiful coin with a proof appearence and yellow - redish tone. It did not make it to PL designation only MS 70. I am still happy.

I sent in two in the mint capsulesto NGC one came back MS-70 the other MS-69. No PL designation and they NGC does not send back the mint packing. As for the PL designation I could see a big differance in the two I sent in. I thought one might grade PL not this time. I'm still o.k.with the outcome.I do have a 1904 $20 Gold Liberty Graded MS-65 PL by NGC I'm not sure if PCGS offers the PL grade on this coin.