Arizona Cardinals

Sun, Oct 13

1:05 PM Pacific

Game Analysis

Kliff Kingbury just got his first win as a head coach and Cardinals are 3-2 ATS this season. In the 3 spread wins, Kyler Murray had an average depth of target of 10.7 yards, 8.1 yards, and 10.2 yards, while in the 2 spread losses Murray’s average depth of target were 5.0 and 5.0. Arizona’s offense is better when Murray has the opportunity to take shots downfield. Atlanta’s defense is surrendering 10.8 yards per pass play over the last two games after losing Keanu Neal and I expect Murray to continue exploiting the absence of the excellent safety, especially considering the underneath throws will likely be unavailable. David Johnson’s 31 targets rank 3rd among running backs but Falcons’ linebacker Deion Jones is allowing only 0.66 yards per cover snap (4th). Nickelback Damontae Kazee (questionable with a concussion) is conceding a league-high 1.80 yards per cover snap in the slot and Larry Fitzgerald will find little resistance on the inside in this game. Justin Pugh and JR Sweezy both rank in the top 15 in pass blocking efficiency among guards and they should limit Grady Jarrett, who ranks 2nd among interior defenders with a 27% pass rush win rate. Meanwhile, the Falcons do not have the edge rushers to exploit Arizona’s weakness at tackle. Opponents must play with more defensive backs on the field against Kingbury’s offense and subsequently the Cardinals ground game ranks 4th in efficiency despite David Johnson averaging a league-low 0.06 avoided tackles per rush. Atlanta’s rush defense ranks last in the NFL and Johnson should have a productive outing on the ground when called upon.

Arizona’s pass defense ranks 28th dealing while dealing with the Patrick Peterson suspension and injuries to fellow cornerbacks Robert Alford and Tramaine Brock. Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and Calvin Ridley will be salivating for this favorable matchup. Our model favors Atlanta by 3.9 points and the Falcons apply to a 116-43-5 ATS road bounce-back situation based on their losing streak and the Cardinals’ win last week. I’ll lean with Atlanta. The model’s predicted total is 49.2 in a game but both quarterbacks should be hitting plays downfield due to favorable matchups so I think we’ll see more points than the model projects.