The real irony in Uber IPO

Upon IPO, Uber employees will be able to afford Tesla. Many will buy it. The irony is Tesla is Uber’s biggest existential threat. From Autonomy Day presentations we learned that their self-driving is way ahead of everybody else including Uber. Personally I largely agree with what they said, especially Elon’s trashing of lidar and HD map. But even if we discount their prospects (some might say there is too much Muskian confidence baked in), they will still be a formidable competitor to Uber.

By buying Tesla Uber employees will be helping Tesla - of course only in a small way, but help nonetheless. One can argue that this can be offset by the possibility that those in Uber self-driving division will learn a thing or two in the process.

Tesla is probably the furthest away from self driving. They do not have a single car on the road with the hardware or software capable of self driving as defined by CA DMV. You can look at their yearly filing with the DMV that they have logged exactly 0 actual self driving miles on CA roads. Sorry, adaptive cruise control does not count as self driving.

From their autonomous day we learned they’re really good at bullshitting everyone with tech specs and faking till they make it. Even though I‘m Uber’s hater no1, we should multiply Elon’s timeline by a factor much greater than one.

I also think Tesla will win the Robo-taxi race. Massive data collection with hundreds of thousands of cars feeding training data. No other company, Waymo, Uber, Cruise, etc can compete with that type of data at scale. L5 self-driving can only be reached by accounting for the long tail risks. Think scenarios that occur 0.00001% or less. You don’t get that with 1000 car fleet or even 10,000 car fleet.

Whether it’s 2 years away or 7. Tesla is in the best position to get there first. I understand many people no longer believe Elon’s predictions, but it’s a matter of when, not if.

With a Robo-taxi fleet, the company is destined for a 1 trillion dollar market cap. And while more are short, I will continue to accumulate.

Not all cars have the right equipment and there are limits to how much fancy data you can download off of the cars. Also, generally getting a pretty shitty feel from the quality of software on the car. It is still the best car there is (I have one), but I don’t see Tesla pulling this off in next 5 years at least.

Can’t believe people still think Tesla is still even in the self driving game!! They are simply not, they simply do not even have resource to do that, and they are just make a driving assistant system!!

I think Tesla is closest in making self driving a reality. The rest of the folks are busy driving test cars around, while Tesla is making cars on the road more and more autonomous. They’re even launching full self driving this year. As a consumer, Tesla has the best self driving tech out there that’s accessible to me.

I am willing to bet Tesla is filing for BK by June 2020. Had he not scammed more investors 2 weeks ago and defrauded them of $2.7B, by this July They wud have filed for bankruptcy. Now they have 6 months more time. I will take the bet for Jun 2020. Wanna have that?

Let's say Tesla nails self driving cars and comes up with their own app. How many cars can they build? They had trouble building cars fast enough to fill their orders, and now you want them to build enough cars to compete against Uber?

I think the most likely scenario which will be beneficial for everyone is if they partner with Uber and/or Lyft to put their cars on one of the existing apps as a new product. This way they don't need to spend time building their own app and ride sharing customer support, and can get to market much quicker.

If they achieve L5 self-driving, they do not need Uber or Lyft. They can build 500,000 cars a year already and this will only ramp up and within a few years, a Tesla self owned robo-taxi service will eat Uber and Lyft alive.

It’s more like Uber and Lyft will combine forces along with another carmaker to compete with Tesla. But battling against Elon is not going to be easy.It’s will be like Blue Horizon trying to compete with SpaceX.

It will cost over 15 billion to build the cars and likely 1-2 years to recoup that cost. Once L5 is reached, Tesla will be well over 100B market cap which they can raise if necessary to fund the build.

I really don’t see why they would allow Tesla owners to contribute to the fleet. This maybe just a tactic to get cars sold now to fund growth until L5 is ready.

Tesla’s will have a 1 million mile shelf life which will prove to be way more cost effective than non-electric cars.

I'm not asking you how much it'll cost to build "the cars", I don't even know how many cars you meant by that. I'm asking you how much it'll cost to build ONE car and how long it'll take to recoup that. Then there's the cost to build and maintain an app, customer support, operations, etc.

And Tesla owners don't need Tesla's permission to put their cars on these apps, they own the cars.

I see Tesla is far ahead in the autonomous game. The reason being Tesla own end to end entity means car (all mechanical stuff) , software , hardware , maps , information infrastructure means car connected to internet through its at&t partnership. All other autonomous competitors are mainly software companies trying to align with other car vendor so to align software with mechanical maneuver means aligning specs of each other which Tesla doesn’t face. Also we have seen Musk achievement in space He started so late in space but now he is at Par with NASA ( I might be wrong but that what I read from internet )