We're roughly two-and-a-half months out from election day, and I'm frequently struck by the dissonance in the midterm tea leaves. On one hand, Democrats continue to outperform their traditional metrics -- often significantly -- in off-year and special elections, likely pointing to a very blue November for Republicans. Last week's apparent, narrow victory for the GOP in Ohio fit this pattern, raising additional concerns about the party's standing heading into the general election...

But there are offsetting and countervailing factors, too. First and foremost, the economy is performing very well, which tends to boost the party in power. The GOP's agenda of deregulation and tax reform -- opposed by every Democrat in Congress -- has yielded economic dividends, improving the employment climate and spurring growth. And while the generic Congressional ballot appeared to be see-sawing back toward Democrats after Republican gains in the spring, that indicator is tipping back in the other direction...

He also notes that Democratic registration levels have fallen by 2% since 2016, from 39% to 37%, while Republican registration remained even at 35%.

He first notes that while Hillary Clinton turned out the vote bigly for her in Midwest cities, Trump turned out the vote even biglier in small towns and rural areas -- which was the decisive shift that flipped the Midwest to him in the presidential election.

In Minnesota, where two Senate seats are in play, both Amy Klobuchar and Tina Smith, who replaced Al Franken, would face close votes if Minnesota’s smaller-town voters continue as they voted in 2016. Similarly, Sherrod Brown in Ohio, Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin, and Claire McCaskill in Missouri would likely lose if those voters come back this year.

Joe Donnelly looks almost certain to lose in Indiana at this point. Bob Casey's continued career in the Senate appears to depend on his winning back the blue-collar voters who deserted Hillary Clinton in 2016.