Tropical Storm EUGENE (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052011
800 PM PDT SUN JUL 31 2011
EUGENE APPEARS TO HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS...WITH A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION JUST BARELY
COVERING THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
WERE UNCHANGED AT 00Z FROM THEIR PREVIOUS VALUES...AND THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 40 KT.
BASED ON A COUPLE OF MICROWAVE PASSES...THE INITIAL MOTION IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 295/9. MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...KEEPING EUGENE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. NEAR
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD EUGENE MAY APPROACH A BREAK IN THE
RIDGE AND COULD TURN A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HWRF AND GFDL...WHICH
TURN EUGENE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS...SEEMINGLY
INTO THE TEETH OF THE RIDGE. THESE TWO MODELS HAVE BEEN DISCOUNTED
...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF...AND SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE FORECASTING EASTERLY SHEAR TO INCREASE
OVER EUGENE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT SEEMINGLY NOT
ENOUGH TO DISSUADE THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS FROM FORECASTING SOME
INTENSIFICATION. THIS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO LESSEN BEFORE EUGENE
REACHES COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS...BUT THE GUIDANCE SHOWS
LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY DURING THAT TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH THE LGEM NEVER BRINGS
EUGENE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/0300Z 11.3N 102.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 11.7N 103.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 12.3N 105.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 12.9N 107.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 13.5N 109.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 14.5N 112.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 16.0N 116.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 18.0N 119.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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