Handicapping the Woodbine Mile

by Brian Nadeau

September 15, 2017

What do you know; without Wise Dan and Tepin a great betting race has broken out. And while seeing those two surefire Hall of Famers do their thing in the last three of the last five runnings of the Woodbine Mile, pardon me if I don’t Saturday’s wide-open renewal is a lot more compelling to us gamblers. With that being said, let’s take a look at it.

While he may not be the favorite on the morning line, the race clearly goes through World Approval, who is probably the best turf miler we have in America (or at the very least he’s in the discussion) and enters this off a breakthrough win in the GI Fourstardave at Saratoga. But a few things to note; first, he got a yielding course that he relishes, and therefore was able to deliver a lifetime best. Second, he sat a dream outside stalking trip over the filly Sassy Lil Lila, who clearly struggled over the boggy ground, and now he’s down inside Saturday. Third, he beat Time Test, who is 2/5 to win the “Best Hanger of the Year” award at January’s Eclipse Awards dinner. So, point being, you need to view World Approval with caution. Can he win? Of course. Do you want him at around 5/2? I sure don’t. But again, that doesn’t mean he’s not the horse to beat.

Next, you need to obviously sift through the Europeans, and, as a guy who covers at the GI races over there on a weekly basis for the Breeders’ Cup Newsletter, I’d like to think I have a decent feel on how they stack up. And this year, with Deauville, Lancaster Bomber, Mondialiste and Dutch Connection, the Euros are solid, if unspectacular. Arod is here too, and he was a decent 5th in this last year, but his 2017 form says he’s about 40-1 Saturday.

If Deauville couldn’t win the Arlington Million off that dream trip, when the seas parted on the inside, then I have a hard time believing he’s winning the Woodbine Mile. The field really isn’t better (or worse), but it just left such a bad taste in my mouth, as he had every right to pass Beach Patrol and win for fun, yet he checked in a bad 3rd. If he runs back to his 3rd in the GI Queen Anne at Royal Ascot, when he was close to Ribchester, the best miler in Europe, then he wins this for fun, but I just don’t see it.

Stablemate Lancaster Bomber is the definition of second-tier, as he’s always blinked when facing group I foes. Of course, those group I foes have names like Barney Roy, Churchill and Ribchester, but, with the exception of the 2nd in the GI St. James’s Palace, he’s never really been close. And, don’t forget, Barney Roy is just a 3yo and so is Churchill, and he hasn’t exactly made a lot of friends since winning his two guineas in May.

Mondialiste is the wildcard, which is odd because he won this race in 2015, then was 2nd in the Breeders’ Cup Mile that year, and returned to the states to win the Million last year. But his 2017 form hasn’t been pretty, and he’s 0-for-6 this year, and has only hit the board once, when 2nd in the GII York. The horse that beat him that day, Success Days, may not rate among the top 40 horses in Europe, so it’s tough to take this version of Mondialiste seriously. Maybe the return to America, and left-handed racing, helps him, but to win? I can’t see it.

Dutch Connection is well below the rest, and at 6-1 he would be a huge underlay. He beat no one in the GIII Supreme at Goodwood and his other runs of late have been abysmal. If he wins, it would be a major shock, even with the addition of Lasix potentially moving up his form. You need every bit of 20-1 to look his way.

So, back to the home team, or at least the US-based runners. It’s a laughable 15-1 ML on Long On Value, but even 6-1 seems like a fair price on a horse who obviously needed his comeback last time, has run fast enough on several occasions to win this and goes for Bill Mott, one of the best horseman we’ve ever seen, and one who doesn’t run his horses where they don’t belong.

There’s a lot of reason to like Long On Value, especially since he should relish a one-turn mile. At fair odds, he’s the no-brainer play to me and I’ll be aggressive with him in all the slots.

There’s not much else to really look over, unless you think now is (finally) the time for Conquest Panthera to win something big. I guess being a GII winner over the course is never a bad thing, but he’s looking up at a lot of them in here, so I’d be hesitant to think he can do anything but run 3rd or 4th.

If you’re looking for a bomber that fits the “horse for the course” angle, then it’s probably Glenville Gardens, who is 6-for-10 here and was closing last time behind Conquest Panthera going 7Fs in the Play the King. Yes, Tower of Texas just missed to Tepin in this last year, but she was dull in her return from Royal Ascot, and his form this year doesn’t look as hot.

So there you have it. A good renewal, a great betting race. Have at it!

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3.16.2018

Woodbine will put on a 10-race card tonight and they have been getting plenty of play in their horizontal bets. The 0.20 Pick 5 with a $50,000 guaranteed pool kicks off the action. Last night, the Pick 5 had over $78,000 in the pool. The 0.20 Early Pick 4 with a $50,000 guaranteed pool rolls in Race 4 and will be my focus. On Thursday the Early Pick 4 had close to $62,000 in the pool and the Late Pick 4 had over $56,000. Yesterday at Woodbine, the driver with the hottest hands was Louis Philippe Roy with four trips to the winner's circle. No trainer had more than one win on the card. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track. Race 4 3-Carolina Cherry-This should be a tougher test after a nice win but is sharp and could win back at a square price. 6-I Wish You Well-Was raced aggressively in last and this is 3rd start off a rest, should be ready to step forward. 7-Teachers Vet-This is a good spot, beat NW15k last 5 a month ago, looks like a major player tonight. 9-Hot Spot Hanover-Took long way around in last, the post is a challenge, but price will be right if Roy works a trip. Race 5 1-J J Mystic Storm-Steps up after claim for small trainer, will respect chances as this is not a field of all-stars. 2-Now What Hanover-Back to back claims and now Auciello takes a swing and moves in from the 10 hole. 4-I C True Grit-Steps after a win in first start for Sheperd-McNair, will respect barn change. 5-Ok Iceman-Looks like a major player after a solid effort in last. Could be sitting on a big try at 8-1 in the ML. Race 6 1-Hldontghttoyurdrms-Drops into a spot to shine for Roy-Moreau and starting inside may do the trick. 2-Great Magic-Even effort off a sick scratch, camera shy but looking for a strong try in a weak field. 8-Blameitonthewhisky-Tried the engine in last at this level and faded, but McNair sticks and may try a new route. Race 7 3-Southwind Ion-Having a nice year and last was good in 1st start at this level, should be in the mix. 7-Party Beach-Last time was hurt by a slow pace. Should be rolling late, if pace is hot all the better. 9-Artistic Madison-Takes a significant drop in search of a win, a major threat with the right trip. 0.20 Early Pick 4 3,6,7,9/1,2,4,5/1,2,8/3,7,9 Total Bet=$28.80 Check me out on Twitter, @AlCimaglia.

3.15.2018

With a carryover fast-approaching $4 million, and national interest building by the day, let’s dip back into the handicapping bag and take a controlled look at Friday’s sequence, which encompasses races 6-11. Race 6: MSW for 3upfm Florida breds going 1-mile on the turf In what looks like a very competitive race for the level, it’s best to spread as deep as your budget allows, since the proven runners look about the same on paper and there figures to be a live firster too. As for the experienced gals, the most upside clearly goes to #6 PURE ONE, who had a tough post (9) on debut then broke 10th-of-11 and could only muster a minor late rally. Clement adds Lasix today, she drew much better and, judging by her strong run to be 5th, beaten just 4 lengths, she has some talent too. Considering #8 SHANGHAI STARLET debuts for Pletcher, you have to give her a look, even though this post is no bargain. The works are promising, JV is here and 80k is a big price for a Florida-bred son of Shanghai Bobby too. Neither #3 SMARTY SMART or #9 TROPICALITY would be a surprise, but the former has had a ton of chances and runs the same race every time, while the latter drew poorly and will be wide every step of the way. I’ll toss #4 SUNFEST in, as he gets a huge jock upgrade with Irad riding, and she fits on paper, even though he’s been plying his trade in the (open) maiden-claiming ranks. Rainbow 6 horses (listed in order of preference): 6,8,3,9,4 Race 7: 25k claimer for 3yos going 5Fs on the turf I’m going to hope that dueling through insane fractions against better is the reason #6 LITTLE PLUMBER came unglued last time, as his maiden breaker two-back was sharp, and he does look like the controlling speed today, so here’s hoping he gets back on the beam. The two more logical runners are #4 ROYAL HOLIDAY, who has also been facing better, while doing the two-turn thing of late, and #5 NONSUCH, who was necked out against better last time and now goes off the claim for Spatz, and while both can win, neither are locks, so I’ll use them, though I don’t trust them completely. Rainbow 6 horses: 6,4,5 Race 8: 12.5k MCL for 4up going 1-mile It’s time for a much needed single, and while doing it in a cheap claimer like this isn’t necessarily the safest angle, it just looks like #3 SOUND OF THE TAP is the right one, as he’s the controlling speed in a race without a lot of early lick, and most importantly, proven talent either. Yes, he rises in class from Penn National, but he dueled the entire way going 6Fs last time, was beaten a neck, while a month clear of 3rd and ahead of a runner who came back to win next time out. Sure, #4 Somedreamscometrue and #8 Fullback Foye are more likely winners, but they are also a combined 0-for-35, so I’ll side with the price who seemingly has a race flow edge too. Rainbow 6 horses: 3 Race 9: 50k starter-allowance for 4upfm going 1 1/16 miles on the turf I’m always a sucker for solid barns who rarely claim horses, and we get it here with #4 PEACE FRONT, who Kenneally claimed for 30k off a N2L win with Brown, and now rises her up in class in a spot she can’t be taken. Yes, she needs to improve, but Eddie K. is 4-for-14 with his claims, so he obviously liked what he saw, and she’ll offer value too. If you want a Lone F at a price, look to #1 HAVANA AFFAIR, who was a big 2nd at the level last time and looks loose as loose can be. I’m only using one more (even though you could easily use #2 Furiosa, #3 Hope’s Roar and #9 Lovin Empire), which is #8 RAINING LEMONS, who has the best form at the level and has run on strongly late in her two starts here this winter, and now goes second-time blinkers. Rainbow 6 horses: 4,1,8 Race 10: Optional claimer (75k/N3X) for 4up going 1-mile on the turf If you’re on a budget, you could do worse than singling #2 FROSTMOURNE, who was a star 3yo turfer last year and could be a real tiger at 4, but he hasn’t been out since October and the works are really on the modest—and light—side, so there’s a chance he needs this, and it is his first start against older horses too. And all of that is why I’ll use #1 PROFITEER on top, as he has a big recency edge and was a good 2nd to GI winner Ring Weekend here last time, for a Shug barn that has enjoyed a big meet. Rainbow 6 horses: 1,2 Race 11: Optional claimer (25k/N1X) for 4up going 7 ½ furlongs on the turf The finale is a real bear, so, like the first leg, spreading seems like the right approach, as you could go upwards of six-deep and still not have the winner. The one thing we do have is an expected energetic pace, especially with #9 Adonis Creed and #10 ATTRIBUTE drawn terribly at this frustrating distance. I’m only using the latter, as he’s outside the former, and has plenty of proven form at this level. But the top pick goes to #7 KULIN ROCK, who ran well against a good field trying winners last time, and while we have another bad GP ML at 6-1 (I’m thinking about 7-2 come post time), he’ll love the expected hot pace, as it will suit his stalking style. The same can be said for #3 RUNAWAY POSSE, who closed strongly to get up against 35k claimers with a big figure and now goes off the claim for a sharp Potts barn. I have no trust in #5 LUNAIRE, but he too will be rolling late, so just maybe today is the day he decides to get there, at a nice price too. Rainbow 6 horses: 7,3,10,5 My TicketRace 6: 3, 4, 6, 8, 9Race 7: 4, 5, 6Race 8: 3Race 9: 1, 4, 8Race 10: 1, 2Race 11: 3, 5, 7, 10Ticket Cost: $72.00