Rankings

In our previous post, we introduced the theory associated with Regularized Adjusted Plus Minus (RAPM) through an illustrative example. In this post, we walk through a vanilla-flavored methodology for building a RAPM model for NBA data. In this article, we focus on the data necessary, the required data manipulation process, and methodology for determining required…

Let’s start with a simple exercise. Suppose we have a three-on-three game, where there are five players on each team. If the game results in Team A defeating Team B by a score of 54 – 53; how can we determine each player’s contribution? We will identify the players as A1, A2, A3, A4, and…

In our previous post we tackled, at length, how John Hollinger’s Player Efficiency Rating (PER) is calculated and identified how different aspects of a player’s game is weighted. This leads us to question certain components of PER. Should I prefer a scorer or a rebounder? How do these terms interact? What about team affiliation? In…

Warning: Lots of Math Ahead… With the introduction of Player Efficiency Rating (PER), John Hollinger constructed a methodology for comparing the relative accomplishments of players across leagues, as well as across years. While being commonly viewed as complex and unidentifiable, the idea is relatively simple: produce a value for each player such that it captures their personal…

Over the past couple decades, we have heard effectively the same complaint that the NBA’s Western Conference is simply too tough and that the Eastern Conference teams have it relatively easy. During the last decade, it’s the primary reason that people dismiss LeBron James’ run through seven consecutive NBA finals as a result of the…

In continuation of our Markov simulation of the NBA Playoffs, we take a look at the updated probabilities for each team remaining. In this article, we take a cursory look at each second round match up and see how the first round panned out compared to the probabilistic predictions. So Far So Good: All rounds…

With the NBA Playoffs set to get underway, we take a quick look at the probabilities for each team becoming the NBA Champions. Common consensus would place any combination of the five strongest teams: Golden State – Houston – San Antonio versus Cleveland – Boston. But the question is how likely? To answer that, we…