Energy Market Analysis - 08-09-2017

The gas system was long yesterday which helped to restrict upward movement at the front of the curve. Strong wind levels were also expected to reduce gas-fired power generation today, although colder weather is set to lift residential demand. The rest of the curve was pushed higher by rising fuel, with carbon and emissions contracts both increasing in price.

Wind generation was set to rise today, weighing on the prompt, although solar power is forecast to remain low for the next fortnight. Stronger coal and emissions prices provided bullish pressure at the back of the curve, with the oil market providing little direction.

Market Open

Market Open

The gas curve displays mixed movement this morning with a drop in CCGT generation and improved supply limiting any gains at the front of the curve. A bearish outlook for oil prices has also capped upward movement at the back of the curve.

Healthy wind levels are expected to continue over the weekend and into next week, helping the prompt shed from its price this morning. However, the majority of contracts moved higher with strengthening fuel markets continuing to offer support.

Brent 1st-nearby prices stabilised yesterday following a strong gain on Wednesday, as a result of an increase in demand following the return of oil facilities on the Texan coast. However, storms have now hit the Caribbean coast and have impacted shipping routes, providing bearish pressure on oil markets.

1-year forward prices

Market close data has revealed that the 1-year forward price for both commercial gas & commercial electricity increased – closing at 46.45ppt and £46.98/MWh, respectively.

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