Tom, agree on your sentiment with a caveat - short term spike (aka moonshot) is a possibility as we are running on low spare capacity; US still imports ~7MM and global demand growth in a straight line by ~1mmbopd/year. Reason I don't think oil price will stay - economy won't sustain it; high energy cost known to trigger recessions. I'm talking todays dollars; we'll get to $200 and $500 oil, eventually - may be sooner than later but I digress.

Shale oil - true, fast to bring online. But easy come - easy go. Decline is ~50% in a first year and ~85% in three years so money has to be made fast. Yet vast majority of operators are growing debt (which gets more expensive to service - other risk factor). Maintaining production level from shale is akin staying still in wonderland - one have to run. Hard to get a flat line by stacking triangles on its heads...

In a world with stable and honest money shale and heavy oil could provide stabilization but that is a world to dream of.

As for gas in Saudi - they don't have enough of it; burning crude for energy and desalination. Qatar have more than plenty but geopolitics of it beyond my comprehension.

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Right now, the geopolitical debacle with Qatar has entered the spite phase and I'm wondering what the Saudis will do next. They've already talked (allegedly) about building a moat to block the Qatari mainland. Basically, besides being necessarily friendly with Iran because the two share the South Pars gas field, the Saudis can't have Qatar getting so much foreign investment. It undermines the Saudi power base in the Gulf.