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Russia

Despite the fact that the evening numbers on the oil reserves in the US were below the morning forecasts of API, we assume that at the back of a number of long-term positive factors, the oil prices might continue upping. We expect the Brent oil quotes to reach the range of 55-60 USD per bbl in the nearest outlook. The Fed session results might form a strong driver tomorrow. News, important for the Russian market, might come from the results of government hearing the budget draft for 2016.
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There might be some news this week regarding the matters of withdrawal of the devaluation income of exporters. We assume alarms of the investors regarding the increase of the debt load on the oil companies’ start fading: there are more signs that the government would not take radical action meaning the market had overreacted, which gives space for oil companies’ prices growth, which might pull the entire market upwards. Due to that, we recommend buying LUKOIL.
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Western grounds closed trade sessions with a new selloff. European indices lost 2.5-3%. US was feeling a bit better having lost just 1%. Stats came out from China this morning showing purchasing managers’ index at a new lowest and below targets: 47 vs 47.5. At the back of the given stats and a selloff at the western grounds yesterday, the Asian grounds are losing 2 to 3%. However, the oil has bounced from 48 to 49 USD per bbl. We assume that local correction might occur at the Russian market with respect to yesterday’s dip; however selloff rates at the western grounds look alarming.
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Slight reduction of global exchange indices and the oil quotes this morning (oil is looking down at the back of the news that Iran made another step toward fulfilling the terms of an agreement, having provided samples from a military facility in Parchina to IAEA) will pressure the Russian market. We assume the reaction of the Russian market to the news on the possible changes in taxation of the oil industry is of temporary nature. Supposed measures might lead to the companies shutting down new projects, initially that would be small and middle size deposits.
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The foreign background developed favorably for the Russian market. The oil quotes showed growth after the Friday evening release of numbers on reduction of the drilling volumes in the US. Growth indicated at the global exchange grounds after profit fixation that followed the session of Fed late last week. European indices grew benefiting from the news from Greece, as SIRIZA, headed by Alexis Tsipras, is winning the election with an unexpected rate of 35.47%, meaning that Tsipras might return to the seat of the prime-minister, having formed a coalition with his partner – Independent Greeks party. Despite the positive background, the Russian market showed significant improvement, initially due to the oil sector’’ notes (LUKOIL mostly) – alarms of the investors grew due to the news on the Finance Ministry having offered to switch to ruble withholding in calculations of MET.
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The results of Fed session formed the headlines today. As expected, the regulator kept the base rate unchanged. At that, the forecast of GDP growth for 2015 has been upgraded, but cut for 2016-2017; unemployment targets have been improved. Inflation and interest rates’ targets have been cut, which provides for a more gradual rate of upping the rate in the future. Generally the results of Fed should provide support to the exchange and commodity markets in a mid-term prospect.
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Western trade grounds closed the trade session in the green zone. Asian indices showed upside dynamics on Thursday morning. As we expected, the report on the oil reserves in the US accompanied by the reduced level of the oil extraction have supported the oil quotes, which managed to fixate above 50 USD per barrel. The given factor will definitely provide support to the Russian market at Thursday open, however, generally we expect sideways dynamics as the participants of the market prefer to refrain from active operations until the decision on the rate has been announced.
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Market today. Russian exchange market showed positive dynamics on Wednesday following growth at the global grounds, and following the correction of the oil upwards. The oil was climbing during the day at the back of the released report of API, according to which the oil reserves volume reduced for the week by 3.13 mn bbl. Weekly report of Energy Ministry confirmed reduction of reserves by lower volumes – 2.1 mn bbl. At that, the target was 2 mn bbl up. The volume of per day extraction showed reduction by another 18K bbl, after 83 weeks drop earlier. Resulting from that, the oil has reached the level of 49 USD per bbl.
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This morning the Russian market will be winning back yesterday’s growth of the American market and morning growth of Asia. At that, extra support is provided to the market by the oil quotes growth at the back of the API forecasts on reduction of reserves in the US (according to API, oil reserves in the US reduced for the previous week by 3.13 mn bbl while the target reserves growth rate formed 2 mn bbl adding), and at the back of Venezuela calling for another session of OPEC in order to discuss the measures on supporting the oil prices. The evening numbers from Energy Ministry will be most important.
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Despite the unsatisfying stats from China, and a new wave of selloff in Asia, we expect no significant changes at the global stock markets until Thursday as investors would be waiting for the decision on the rate from the US. However, the oil down at 47 USD per bbl might turn into a negative factor for the trade in Russia this Tuesday.
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Negative data on the industrial production in China, posted Sunday, led to a serious dip of Shanghai index this morning. Reduction if the exchange markets today might be continued with respect to the Chinese stats and the progressing preparations for the Fed session. Resulting from exit from Market Vectors Russia (which is a benchmark for the RSX – biggest ETF index directed to Russia), the following might be under pressure on Monday: notes of FSK, Russian Grids, TMK, Pharmstandard, O’KEY, Mechel, Mosenergo, Raspadskaya.
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Market today. Chinese exchange market closed the day looking down after the long lasting holiday: ShanghaiComp (-2.5%), CSI (-3.4%), Hang Sang (-1.2%), which however, was no reason for the European indices to slip as Europe showed correction upwards after a serious slip of the indices on Friday. The recent full trade week closed with a serious slip in China and the governmental authorities could save from the volatility. Therefore, the exchange market’ dynamics of China might this week add not only volatility at the global markets, but lead to forming of a mid-term trend.
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A new selloff at the Chinese exchange market might be a new trigger for the investors’ run from exchange market at the western grounds. The markets will be extremely sensitive to the actions of China in case of a long-term reduction of its indices. We assume the negative dynamics of trade in Asia accompanied by the oil below 50 USD per bbl will make a negative impact on the dynamics of the exchange market on Monday.
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The foreign background developed negatively for the Russian market. Global exchange indices and commodity prices showed reduction at the back of the increased probability of the rate upping in September and alarms regarding the trade character at the Chinese market early next week after the holidays are over. At the back of the unemployment reduction from 5.3% to 5.1% the alarms appeared that the current level of unemployment is already above the balance, that it requires rate upping. Higher than expected growth of salary per hour is favorable for that. The Russian market moved within the global trends, reduction went on a wide range of notes. Shares of Raspadskaya were the top losers at the back of IAS report; Inter RAO, Polymetal and Aeroflot were looking down. Mechel, Sollers, NMTP and Polyus Gold were above the market.
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The Chinese market remains closed today too, which cuts the markets’ volatility significantly, and turns into a chance for growth progress. At the meantime, the oil did not manage to hold at the level of 52 USD per bbl and returned to the level of 50 USD/bbl, which might grade evening growth of the Russian market. As for the macroeconomic stats, unemployment numbers in the US deserve attention.
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We assume that second wave of reduction has started at the global grounds due to rising alarms regarding the Chinese exchange market and the economy of China in general. Messages that the authorities of China would not be supporting the exchange grounds but would focus on the persons responsible for destabilization of the situation at the market added more negative to the investors as the bounce after the first wave of selloff has been caused precisely by the messages on the support on behalf of the state.
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Numbers posted in the morning g showed reduced business activity in the industry of China by the highest rates for the past years. At the given background, run from risk continued at the market. Euro, yen and Swiss Frank are climbing. Asian grounds were looking down, so did the futures for the European and American indices. At the meantime, the Russian market will be supported by a new all-time high growth of the oil quotes after the release of the n umbers on the reduced extraction in the US and statements of OPEC on being ready to discuss the oil price dip.
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Market today. Suspended panic at the global grounds as showed by the recent two days, allowed RTS (+6.2%) exceed 800 points. Climbing oil was an extra factor of the domestic market strengthening. At that, the stock of the non-oil exporters were the top losers at the market at the back of ruble strengthening: Akron (-3.1%), PhosAgro (-3.2%), NLMK (-1.2%), Uralkaliy (-1.9%). Given factor drove the stocks of Sberbank (+3.6%) up. Posted strong report for 1H 2015 helped the stock of Inter RAO that has lost a lot recently.

The authorities of China conducting interventions at the national exchange market helped keep the Chinese indices from a new dip. Given factor made the investors confident worldwide and supported correction growth.
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Oil reserves numbers, posted in the US confirmed the estimation of API on the significant reduction (by 5.45 mn bbl instead of the consensus at 1.45 mn bbl), however, the reduction turned out to be below the API forecast. Last week the oil extraction drop continued (11K bbl per day), however, the rate have decelerated vs the previous week. Oil did correct down slightly after the reserves volume has been posted, therefore, by the US markets close, the quotes returned to Wednesday highs.
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Market today. Situation at the global financial markets is gradually stabilizing after the “Black Monday”. Given is supported by the measured adopted by China in order to support the financial system – yesterday’s cut of the rate and reduction of the norms of reserves required, along with the direct inflow of the liquidity “Short-term Liquidity Operations (SLO) for 140 bn yuan (21.80 bn USD). ECB is conducting, as it normally does, oratory interventions: according to the statement by the member of the board of ECB Peter Prat, regulator was ready to build up the volume of QE or prolong its validity term if necessary.
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Market today. The decision of the PBC on a new easing of the monetary policy via cutting the key rate and required reserves norms for the banks was the global positive for global exchange grounds. At that, the commodity markets were involved too and reacted with price adding.

Having started the practice of easing the monetary policy in November 2014, for the recent months China has applied given method several time already. However, given has not succeeded earlier. Preliminary PMI Manufacturing for August was most expressive having launched a wave of selloff at global grounds.
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This morning we expect the Russian indices to continue slipping. US market closed Friday with a remarkable dip – S&P dropped for the most for past 4 years. The stock markets of the Middle East states dropped over 5% Sunday. Today morning, the global grounds’ dip progressed: Shanghai Index lost over 8%, commodities’ prices dropped down to a 16-years’ lowest, WTI is trading below 40 USD per bbl, Brent – below 45 USD. The oil quotes drop is provided by the intention of Iran to build up extraction “by all means” in order to protect its share at the oil market.
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