I have been a scientist in the field of the earth and environmental sciences for 33 years, specializing in geologic disposal of nuclear waste, energy-related research, planetary surface processes, subsurface transport and environmental clean-up of heavy metals. I am a Trustee of the Herbert M. Parker Foundation and consult on strategic planning for the DOE, EPA/State environmental agencies, and industry including companies that own nuclear, hydro, wind farms, large solar arrays, coal and gas plants. I also consult for EPA/State environmental agencies and industry on clean-up of heavy metals from soil and water. For over 20 years I have been a member of Sierra Club, Greenpeace, the NRDC, the Environmental Defense Fund and many others, as well as professional societies including the America Nuclear Society, the American Chemical Society and the American Association of Petroleum Geologists.

Israel Has Nuclear Weapons, But Only Iran Has Nuclear Power

With all the uproar over Iran’s nuclear weapons program, reckless speculation on attacks and the latest Iranian cyberthreat, does anyone care that Iran just brought up to full power the only commercial nuclear energy reactor in the Middle East? Of the kind you can’t really make weapons from?

It’s easy to forget that Iran has had a 50-year nuclear program, begun by the United States in the 1960’s. At that time, the Shah of Iran realized that oil wasn’t going to last forever, and decided to take us up on our Atoms for Peace program. Just like the Soviets did for DPRK (North Korea) in their version of Atoms for Peace. Just like we did for Pakistan our Atoms for Peace program (see The Rachel Maddow Show March 19th 2012 for a brilliant discussion of the history of the Atoms for Peace program and the ongoing disarmament activities and collection of loose materials occurring today).

The U.S.-supplied 5 MW research reactor in Tehran came online in 1967, providing research and training for what was always supposed to become a robust nuclear energy program. But it turned in a nasty direction after the revolution.

In 1974, the Germans started building a commercial light water power reactor for Iran at Bushehr, but these were abandoned (but not forgotten!) after the 1979 revolution that deposed the Shah.

The new theocracy started shopping around globally for nuclear infrastructure and the beginnings of a weapons program, not the least because of the chemical weapons assaults against them from our old friend Saddam during the 1980s. (The Shah himself also explored a weapons program but the U.S. shut that down).

It was the infamous A.Q. Khan who, after setting up Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program, was selling nuclear weapons know-how to rogues like Kim Il-sung and the Ayatollahs, right under the noses of those in the West who trained him. Khan supplied Iran with centrifuge technologies and probably weapons designs.

When we discovered how bad we’d messed up, we knew we were in for a long era of trouble. There’s no putting this genie back in thebottle. We have to figure out how to live with it and encourage a different global paradigm than just “keep these things away from the crazies”.

We are deep in the struggle to attain that new meme. It goes along with the whole achieve world peace and end global poverty kind of future. It will be a deeply disturbing future if we do not accomplish these things.

Iran linked up with Russia in the mid-1990s. After initial dialogue, the Clinton Administration convinced Russia not to supply Iran with centrifuges and weapons technology, but instead to focus on a deal to resurrect the Bushehr civilian nuclear power project and build a 1000 MWe V-446 reactor retrofitted to the old German structures. This project actually went forward pretty transparently and concluded in the operating energy reactor of today.

However, in secret, Iran scaled up its enrichment program and other nuclear facilities including the major sites at Natanz and Kalaye, and potential weapons sites at Parchin and Lavizan-Shian.

Iran also developed the infrastructure to go all the way from uranium ore to highly-enriched uranium, way beyond what is needed for a nuclear energy program alone, although they have apparently not gone past 20% U-235 even now, not enough for a dependable device. Still, there was no doubt that Iran was pursuing weapons.

Nuclear facilities in Iran are a combination of weapons and energy. (After International Institute of Strategic Studies http://www.iiss.org/)

Iran also began building an actual weapons reactor, a 40 MW heavy water reactor at Arak, that would take natural uranium, and produce plutonium. Its operational status is unknown at present, but appears mostly complete with obvious Russian-designed fuel elements. It is supposedly for medical isotopes, which is probably true, but will also produce enough Pu for about one bomb per year.

Since there appears to be no facility to reprocess Arak’s potential fuel to recover the plutonium, the choice to go the uranium route to a bomb seems to have won out, which is consistent with their extensive enrichment program. You don’t need to enrich U much for either a Pu-weapon or fuel for a power reactor.

These secret nuclear facilities were revealed around Y2K, and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) began investigating in earnest. After a few years, Iran “temporarily” suspended enrichment and began a cat & mouse game. No one was fooled then. No one is fooled now.

In 2006, Iran resumed enrichment activities, continued bogus dialogues, the IAEA was not able to declare that Iran had no weapons program, so the U.N. Security Council began issuing resolutions, that eventually culminated in sanctions.

When a second secret enrichment facility was discovered at Qum in 2009, pressure mounted and sanctions became fairly punishing.

Moving along in parallel with all this weapons stuff was the old Bushehr power reactor. With Russia’s Atomstroyexport as contractor, the reactor came on-line in 2010. It was connected to the grid in 2011, and just six weeks ago Bushehr went to full capacity, firmly establishing Iran as the first commercial nuclear power producer in the Middle East. Israel has nuclear weapons, but only Iran has nuclear power.

Bushehr is likely to produce over 8 billion kWhrs of electricity each year, replacing quite a bit of natural gas capacity, and allowing that much more natural gas to be exported at a profit. Atomstroyexport plans to build more reactors in Iran in the future.

Why can’t they just be happy with that?

Probably because no one gets respect like those who have the bomb. And those who stop reaching for it tend to get killed. Just ask Saddam and Muammar. On the other, once you start down that path, the end can become dicey pretty fast.

I don’t intend for this quick review to be complete at all, but to illustrate that history matters and that a choice to produce weapons is clear and separate from a choice to produce energy (see the masters in the field, like Siegfried Hecker, Micah Lowenthal and Tom Isaacs, for the real skinny on weapons).

The United Arab Emirates is also building nuclear power reactors, four Korean light water rectors, in full transparency and with full support from the international community. Abu Dhabi knows they don’t need to enrich for themselves and don’t need other nuclear infrastructure to have nuclear energy. They, too, seek to offset natural gas use, and sell both gas and nuclear energy at a nice profit. Their choice will bring them a much better profit than Iran’s.

Jordan recently discovered about 70,000 tons of deposits from which U can be recovered for a tidy profit without starting a weapons program.

A nuclear energy race in the Middle East is fine. A nuclear arms race is horrible. They are easily distinguished from each other and the region can still steer towards an energy-only nuclear future, something that is essential given the tumultuous collapse of the old regimes and the emergence of new governments across the region (The Middle Class, Energy And Terrorism).

How we handle Iran is crucial to which of these futures comes to pass. Caution and reasoned action, with a full understanding of the history of the region, is the only way to proceed. I am confident that election year rhetoric will not prevent this.

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All of these shouting about Iranian activities is just to hide the Land stealing and oppression by this apartheid state of Israel. If you keep fighting with all of your neighbors, then you don’t belong there. Situation is changing dramatically and it is going against the zionist interest.

Yes, this is what I mean when I say we need a new way of thinking about weapons, energy and security. This has always been the biggest question in history – how can we coexist without the threat of mutual destruction?

That, plus their unwillingness to let inspectors in, plus their “secret” facilities, plus their talk of annihilation, plus Syrian’s weapons reactor that was bombed a few years ago, etc. It’s not that it’s bad to want a weapon, it’s actually reasonable that they want a weapon. Everyone wants one for regional hegemony. The question is, how to deal with it without inciting a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. That would be bad.

The U.S. and Russia are quite different, they were vying for world domination and mutually-assured destruction. We both have been backing off quite a bit, and have destroyed about 90% of our arsenals. Still, plenty left.

All talk about potential Iranian nuclear weapons work is entirely based on speculation. There is not a shred of evidence that Iran has any interest in developing nuclear weapons which are totally useless in today’s world.

Where would Iran drop a nuke, on Jerusalem which contains some of the holiest Islamic sites and where numerous Palestinians live? What would the U.S. do the next day? Does anyone have a brain?