Haven't posted here in a while as I've been posting my plays elsewhere. Can't mention where b/c it would likely get me boxed again and that's a road not worth going down...

Anyways, I'm back because I often get asked for analysis of my plays and rather than answer questions one by one I figured this would be the place to share my insight. So here we go...

South Florida -3.5

I just don't see it for Georgia tonight. This is a team that hasn't topped 60 points in any of their last 5 games, and a trip to Tampa to take on South Florida certainly shouldn't do anything to help a team already badly struggling to score. The Bulldogs are led by athletic swing man Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. Pope is a solid player and can do most things pretty well, problem for him is one thing he can't do, shoot. Pope is shooting 36.4% from the field on the season, on the heels of 39% shooting from the field last year as a Freshman. The numbers don't lie, he can't shoot. Don't tell him that though, as he attempts nearly twice as many shots as anyone else on the team. Against a tough defense like USF with plenty of length to throw at him this wreaks of a 4 for 14 type of night for Pope. When your star player has a night like that it's very tough to hang in on the road with a team like South Florida. As if Pope's struggles shooting the ball weren't enough, it's also worth mentioning that 3 of Georgia's other 4 top scorers shoot at 39%, 34%, and 34% respectively. Take a team that can't shoot, send them on the road against a very good defensive team, slow the pace of the game, and you've got a recipe for disaster. Frankly I don't know if Georgia even reaches 50 points tonight.

As far as South Florida goes on offense I certainly won't paint them to be some offensive juggernaut. They are a slow it down, grind it out type of team. What works in their favor is they don't have a ball hog like Pope ruining the offense. In fact no South Florida player even averages double figure field goal attempts, which for their type of style is a good thing. Forward Toarlyn Fitzpatrick leads the way for the Bulls averaging 13 points a game on a very respectable 50% from the field and 40% from 3 point lead. In addition to Fitzpatrick Guards Jowanza Poland and Shaun Noriega each shoot 37% from 3 point land. Simply put, they have more efficient scoring options than Georgia does.

At the end of the day what we likely have here is a slow paced game that'll make your eyes bleed. Just expecting Georgia to be a bit uglier than USF.

Arkansas has been playing at warp speed so far this season, racing up and down the court to the tune of about 71 possessions per game. This is a large part of why we've got such a high total here. I'm not going to knock the Arkansas offense. It's good. Not only have they been playing fast, but they've been playing efficiently. More than anything what's worked in Arkansas is their lack of turnovers. Currently they're number 1 in the country in fewest turnovers, which given how fast they play is even more impressive. All that said, tonight against Syracuse they'll be facing a completely different animal. Cuse comes into tonight the 2nd best team in the nation in terms of defensive efficiency. In their first game (granted it was played outdoors on an aircraft carrier) they made SDSU look like a high school offense. The zone Arkansas will see tonight should slow their pace, clearly cut into their efficiency, and most importantly for our purposes reduce the amount of points they'll score.

For as great as Syracuse is on the defense end, it's still to be determined how solid their offense will be. They were very mediocre offensively (again the outdoor issue) in their opener against SDSU and since then have played 3 cupcakes. So we don't really know yet, but I don't see them going on the road and putting up 80 or so on Arkansas tonight which is likely around the number they'd need to put this one over 149.

In short I see a game with some offensive frustration on each side, and in a game with a total this high for an over to hit you can't really have any prolonged scoring lulls. I expect we'll see a few tonight.

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