Kentucky Undefeated (12/29/14)

What are the odds that the Kentucky Wildcats finish the regular season undefeated?

Kentucky dispatched in-state rival Louisville 58-50 last Saturday, a game many considered to be the most difficult on the Wildcats' schedule.

An 18 game SEC slate is all that stands in the way of Kentucky finishing the regular season unbeaten.

Only two teams this century have finished the regular season with a perfect record, Saint Joseph's in 2003-04 and Wichita State last season. What are the odds that Kentucky runs the regular season table?

Below is Kentucky's expected win probability for each remaining game.

Opponent

Kentucky's Odds to Win

vs. Ole Miss

95.9%

@ Texas A&M

88.7%

vs. Missouri

98.3%

@ Alabama

84.1%

vs. Vanderbilt

95.1%

@ South Carolina

81.9%

@ Missouri

88.1%

vs. Alabama

96.9%

vs. Georgia

95.3%

@ Florida

80.3%

@ LSU

85.5%

vs. South Carolina

94.3%

@ Tennessee

88.2%

vs. Auburn

97.9%

@ Mississippi State

90.9%

vs. Arkansas

94.8%

@ Georgia

84.9%

vs. Florida

90.0%

The Wildcats are greater than 80 percent likely to win every conference game and are nearly 95 percent likely to win every remaining game in Rupp Arena. Kentucky will be a heavy favorite in each SEC contest and we project the No. 1 team in the country to win by double-digits in each matchup.

We estimate that Kentucky has a 16.4 percent chance of finishing the regular season undefeated.

After simulating the remainder of the regular season 50,000 times, Kentucky is projected to finish with less than two losses on average (29.3 wins, 1.7 losses).

Top ranked Kentucky is an even-money favorite to win the NCAA Tournament. Oddsmaker Bovada.lv gives Kentucky 5/1 odds to finish the 2014-15 season undefeated. That includes the regular season, conference tournament and NCAA tournament.

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