The sense of urgency has been here for weeks but the formula from a year ago has proven elusive. Wednesday was either real progress, the result of being humiliated in St. Louis, or both. Bottom line: The team we saw opening night against Calgary, the team we saw against the New Jersey Devils, the team we saw in Detroit earlier in the week, that team should really show up in Buffalo tonight. Seriously.

THE ATHLETIC

The special Lowetide offer is here. A new item for you this morning from Katie Strang and I have an article on the Bakersfield Condors and development that should drop any time (I will link below):

SNOWBLIND FRIEND, YEAR OVER YEAR

Oilers in November 2015: 4-6-2, goal differential -6

Oilers in November 2016: 5-6-1, goal differential 0

Oilers in November 2017: 5-6-1, goal differential -4

G13 in 2015-16 was the final game of the month, a 3-0 loss to the Toronto Maple Leafs. A year later, 3-2 shootout loss to the Arizona Coyotes. A win by Edmonton this evening will give this year’s team the edge for November.

AFTER 23, YEAR OVER YEAR

Oilers 15-16: 7-14-1, goal differential -12

Oilers 16-17: 12-8-2, goal differential +10

Oilers 17-18: 8-12-2, goal differential -14

In 2015-16 it was a 4-3 overtime loss to the Detroit Red Wings and a year later it was a 2-1 loss to Arizona. A win for the Oilers gets them to 20 points and puts them on pace for 71 points for the season. This second road trip could still bury them.

At the beginning of the month, I had Buffalo and Arizona as wins. If the Oilers can come away with two points from each of those games, and grab a point from one of Boston or Toronto, Edmonton will match my original prediction for November.

LIVING ON THE EDGE

Elliotte Friedman:“I do think that everybody there is on notice now. I think this is one of those years when you’re trying to challenge to win the Stanley Cup and you’re going like this – you’re in danger of being out of the race already – I don’t think there is anybody who is safe. I think this is an owner who had great expectations for this year. He’s a tough, very demanding guy. I believe in situations like this everybody is on alert. Everybody is on the edge.”Source

I don’t think this should come as much surprise, the expectations for this team were very high and the results have been extremely poor. The bets made on the department of youth have not worked out, having no real cover for Jordan Eberle’s exit remains an issue and not replacing Andrej Sekera on defense is exactly as harmful as we thought it might be during the summer.

LOWETIDE JUNE 30, 2017

I have looked at this thing from every angle and it still comes back to Jesse Puljujarvi. The No. 4 overall selection in the 2016 draft, he is visually dynamic and has reached the age where men with his pedigree find the range as NHL players. Peter Chiarelli should be able to rely on him, but we didn’t see enough from him a year ago to make JP a lock for a skill line this fall. Peter Chiarelli appears to have decided to proceed as if Jesse Puljujarvi is ready, or that is my read going into free agency. Is this a position he can defend? Sure. Is it dangerous? Unless he has a backup deal in his hip pocket that can be cashed at any time during the season, my answer is yes.

It doesn’t have to be this way. The Oilers could sign a scoring RW in free agency, overpaying on a one-year deal if necessary, and have the depth chart set up in a far more promising fashion. It sounds like, based on what we are hearing, PC is going to add an end of the roster type player and then see how things play out.

The bottom line: The Edmonton Oilers continue to build toward a goal that will reach its zenith in the years to come, perhaps 2020 or 2022. The window to win, currently open, will receive no extra push this summer. At the deadline? We’ll see about it then. I will tell you this is not my preference and I believe there is real danger here. A step back, while the Calgary Flames push to the top of the Pacific Division, is a noxious thought for Oilers fans. I do not see the Flames as the class of the group at this time.

No one is suggesting PC blow the budget this summer, but a one-year deal for Radim Vrbata or another veteran scorer could offer cover for him, Todd McLellan, and frankly Jesse Puljujarvi. If we head to free agency and see Edmonton sign fringe options, everything comes into play. That means Leon on RW is a real possibility. A dive in goal differential early in the year is possible, meaning a stumble until a fix can be found (at a price more dear than the current cost in summer). This is my opinion.Source

Every once in awhile I’ll get a dm or an email, or someone will write in the comments “hindsight is 20/20” but the truth is we talked about this all summer. And yes, we also talked about 95-100 points for this team, not because they were balanced, but rather because Connor McDavid, Cam Talbot. If Peter Chiarelli is under pressure today, it’s because Peter Chiarelli decided to give his team cover on July 1 by signing Ty Rattie, Mitch Callahan, Grayson Downing, Keegan Lowe, Ryan Stanton, Brian Ferlin, Edward Pasquale.

That’s partly why I don’t buy the current pressure on Chiarelli from inside. Unless there’s a palace coup going on, every one of Edmonton’s 50 managers had to have known this was another building season. The comments by Mr. Friedman suggest the owner is pissed, I would think that rage would have been far more effective on July 1. We saw this coming, I expect the Oilers did to, and decided 97 would outscore the mistakes again.

Peter Chiarelli may pay the price, but the flawed thinking remains. The biggest mistake he made was leaving the old soldiers in place. He should have made that part of his ask: Clear the decks, start again.

REPLACEMENTS

If the Oilers fire Chiarelli during the season, my guess is they replace him with one or more of Wayne Gretzky, Kevin Lowe and Craig MacTavish. Paul Fenton may never be available but he sure as hell isn’t going to pop loose until the offseason, and that’s when this business should happen. For me, firing general manager or coach during the season is the move of a loser. There is danger here, trading Ryan Nugent-Hopkins for Ryan Murray would further harm this roster, but a trade like that makes zero sense and I don’t see Chiarelli doing it or Katz signing off on it.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

It’s Friday! Lots of great things to discuss and a full boat of terrific guests. 10 this morning, TSN1260:

I read it too… now I wonder if I should just stop caring all together… Chia has done so much damage to the franchise, and now we’re hearing that he might trade Nuge for “potential and magic beans”. I fear the only thing that can fix it is turfing the ENTIRE management crew, bench Lucic and russel until they request for a trade, then, dare I say it, explore the idea of trading McDavid or Drai to recoup some of the lost assets chia stupidly traded away for “potential” or “a hunch”.

Someone please… say something that will give me hope that it will not need to come to this… Something positive… like REALLY positive…

russ99:
I’ll be Ok when they trade Nuge. Part of the problem, not the solution.

That one play in the third, getting mad because an opponent denied him space and got a stick in sums it up.

Also those backpasses, why not just shoot…

Then we can put Leon at 2C where he belongs.

Enough of holding on to our last place past with the Austins, we need to find a way to maximize the McDavid cluster now.

Lol.

Yeah, Nuge is definitely the problem. I mean his 8 goals and 17pts, which has him 2nd behind only McDavid in scoring (tied with Draisaitl in points) playing with Lucic and a revolving door of RWs, just isn’t good enough.

Not to mention he’s our only top 6 C that is responsible defensively and can play on the PK.

Well that is the $64 question. Think you have to struggle through the season and make corrections in the off season. Chiarelli has seriously weakened this team from last season and injuries haven’t helped. Other teams have had way worse injury issues. We simply don’t have any depth on D or the wing. There is no help on the farm ready any time soon.. I do give Chia credit for a couple of good recent draft years but cupboards are bare due to shitty drafting in years past. Our depth made much worse when you basically throw away two top draft picks for a player most knew was never going to make an impact.

Those mistakes snowball fast. Need to hope like hell KY and Benson can step up next year. Have to find a 2 RD for next season. I don’t trust that Chia will get er done.

Yeah, Nuge is definitely the problem. I mean his 8 goals and 17pts, which has him 2nd behind only McDavid in scoring (tied with Draisaitl in points) playing with Lucic and a revolving door of RWs, just isn’t good enough.

Not to mention he’s our only top 6 C that is responsible defensively and can play on the PK.

What a bum. Get him off the team.

If he’s so responsible defensively, why can’t he play a shutdown role like last year? It’s all about his offense this year for some reason, and successful clubs don’t make concessions for one player over the team.

His interview after the game was horrible, they wanted it more, there wasn’t room. Make your own room, there no reason we can’t give a good effort as well.

It’s not just RNH either, McDavid is doing the same thing,

It’s like after the Calgary game, sad their easy rush chances from the previous game was taken away and now they don’t know what to do.

Yeah, Nuge is definitely the problem. I mean his 8 goals and 17pts, which has him 2nd behind only McDavid in scoring (tied with Draisaitl in points) playing with Lucic and a revolving door of RWs, just isn’t good enough.

Not to mention he’s our only top 6 C that is responsible defensively and can play on the PK.

russ99: If he’s so responsible defensively, why can’t he play a shutdown role like last year? It’s all about his offense this year for some reason, and successful clubs don’t make concessions for one player over the team.

If he’s so irresponsible defensively why is he 2nd in SH TOI among forwards this season?

If he plays a shutdown role then people complain he doesn’t produce enough and makes too much to be a 3C.

Kinger_Oil.redux:
– OK for real what do we do now?Tank?, fire management in the off-season, rinse repeat?

FU%K

We do nothing major, nothing at all.

We stay the course and, assuming there isn’t a massive turnaround, we sell Maroon, Letestu and Cammalleri at the deadline for picks and prospects and add that to our own 1st round pick and this off-season will go a long way to stocking our forward prospect pool (not that we are stocked on D and G) and creating that steady pool of cheap value contracts for the wings – we add to Benson, Yamamoto, Maksimov and Safin.

We stay the course and, assuming there isn’t a massive turnaround, we sell Maroon, Letestu and Cammalleri at the deadline for picks and prospects and add that to our own 1st round pick and this off-season will go a long way to stocking our forward prospect pool (not that we are stocked on D and G) and creating that steady pool of cheap value contracts for the wings – we add to Benson, Yamamoto, Maksimov and Safin.

That’s about all you can do short of trading Leon or Connor. Maybe pick up a ufa or two if there’s cap room.

It’s time. Tank it. If you don’t have the horses forget it. Chia needs to be thinking next year now. He F’d this year so he now has 9 months to fix it before next year.
He’s done before Nov with a slow start next year.

This flames game makes the previous game look like rec hockey. Seriously

SK Oiler Fan:
It’s time. Tank it. If you don’t have the horses forget it. Chia needs to be thinking next year now. He F’d this year so he now has 9 months to fix it before next year.
He’s done before Nov with a slow start next year.

This is why every non oiler fan i talk to thinks the organization is a joke.

Auvitu had a solid game, too bad he lost his man on the first goal.
Broissoit had a solid game, too bad he let in the stinker.
Big problem was the whole dam team generated virtually nothing offensively. That is some kind of flu bug. I guess.
Oh and PP1 might want to shoot the fucking puck.

I got out of jail and came home for the third. I actually was quite enthused. Other than the loss in a winnable game.

Nuge was good and attacking with vigor. He has to develop a shot to expand his game. It’s still too weak and he’s predictable. He’s hitting mid twenties so the drive should be there, he’s starting to front players as well, a sign. A keeper for a smart GM

JP – man I see a tremendous player in him. He’s so smart, he’s got lots of jam, When he’s a little older (stronger and more confident) with that skill set he is going to be a backbone and an absolute beast. He is just feeling his oats. To trade him would be absolute folly. He’s in the NHL for good now. Hopefully in Edmonton.

Nurse – he’s arrived. Brilliant but of course offensively shy of a superstar at this point. Sign him for 8×4.5/5 and reap the benefits.

Caggiula – he’s got jam but at this point doesn’t have top 6 finish

Khaira – He has been playing so well. Sign him cheap long term. He’s the Kassian replacement. He drives the puck the right way and wants to score. Can he play 4C?

Auvitu – he is trying hard defensively as I saw, and is such a natural puck mover I think a 2-3 year contract at a reasonable cost would be very smart.

Benning – he has talent but needs third pairing until he can push somebody out. He needs space, I think he is a keeper. Lots of game but not for sure as good as he tries to be

Connor – he has so much skill I wouldn’t trade him. Maybe for Subban straight up, no extras though.

Draisaitl – needs to develop a dangerous shot to round his game. With his strength he should have a real beauty.

Cammaleri – quality player, I would re-up him for a low one year. I see a mentor for how to play correctly in the O zone and I saw responsibility.

Broissoit – choose him and give him games to get his rhythm down or move on. He can play.

Strome – a little quicker and he’s a very good 3C. Another smart player, this summer and his skating defines his career. Skating is no longer an option.

Kassian – it’s too bad they gave him nearly 2M. He’s a valuable 4th liner with a junkyard dog’s protective steak. I’d keep him for that as opposed to points because they should let Maroon go and need jerk insurance

Larsson – a rock, needs to hit less and play like he can

Maroon – has been a great addition, but the time has come

Lucic – at his contract I’d be talking to the team physicians. THIS IS ONLY MY OPINION AND SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN AS A NARRATIVE OR RUMOUR. I don’t think he’s right. He can’t do what he is known for, since he’s been with the team. Other than beating the daylights out of guys. He’s getting points but not helping enough and his role is helper’ not being set up. He should be dominating the boards and doing the grunt work at a high end level.

Russell – not good enough so far to cover his contract, points or not. He’s third pair quality handling the puck in the D zone.

Gryba – his usefulness had passed with the Oilers. Crushing people is great, but the league is changing and his lack of speed is becoming a bigger issue – penalties

Letestu – great guy, too slow to help and the lucky PP year wasn’t a new norm. As it rarely is with mature players.

IMO we can see who is emerging and who can stay, which was the plan given the summer.

I want them to have hard conversations with guys crapping the bed on their deals, and not resign those not helping move the play forward. All three centres need guys that can shoot and skate and help both ways. If Chiarelli can do that then sign a RD and maybe a backup we get the photo I think.

It’s close. Lose a few heavy boots and highly limited players, find chemistry with lines and pairs and we’re there.

We stay the course and, assuming there isn’t a massive turnaround, we sell Maroon, Letestu and Cammalleri at the deadline for picks and prospects and add that to our own 1st round pick and this off-season will go a long way to stocking our forward prospect pool (not that we are stocked on D and G) and creating that steady pool of cheap value contracts for the wings – we add to Benson, Yamamoto, Maksimov and Safin.

– Yeah but your in the results business. Do you really think this entity has the fortitude and belief to do this? I guess it hasn’t hurt the bottom line, so there’s that

– I mean they let the OBC have free reign for years, but it feels different

– I just don’t know what the alternative is in this parity league where we are 1 deviation below average

I’ve been saying that since we looked like missing the playoffs was more of a probability than a possibility. A one-year re-tool could do wonders for the prospect pool of this organization going and forward and it is imperative that we have a strong prospect pool.

I’d delete Gryba from that list though – he’s got another year after this one.

Réal Goudenyéu:
A team with Connor McDavid on it is 29th in the league.

I don’t know what to make of this.

Probably similar to how a team with Jack Eichel is 30th. Point is that Connor is only so good. Not to mention every team has a superstar, and the difference between connor and that star is nowhere near as big a difference as there is in the bottom of the order. It’s your holes that hurt you;

OriginalPouzar: A few years ago, a team with Sidney Crosby was 2nd worst in the league.

Unlike the NBA, a single superstar does not make a team.

This team will contend for the majority of his new contract – not this year though.

No. They absolutely will not contend for years to come.

It’s staring us right in the face. It’s not working. We’ve been here before. Hoping for the next high draft pick – it’s not going to work. Time to change.

Peter has to go before he can do more damage, his decision making is not acceptable. We will not contend with him.

Let’s look at Dallas or the Blues. They had talent but needed to keep improving. We need to keep improving using every opportunity out there, including draft. Which hasn’t done that much for us. Othing out of the first round, and many of those traded.

Blues did it right when they went out and target ed Schenn. We need difference makers, not buy outs cast offs and tweeters.

This 17/18 team may yet win a few based on improved player performance.But regardless of player performance we will not contend until we change the way this team views talent and manages talent.

I’ve been one of Chia’s biggest fans, and most ardent defenders since his Boston days…he lost me tonight…

I could handle trading away value for need (Larson) I could handle the riverboat gambling (Reinhart), I could handle the cap dumping (Eberle), I could handle hedging risk too early (Pouliot/Pitlick) I could handle rolling the dice on some internal development (Nurse/Benning)

What broke my back was when, for two consecutive years, Chia failed to provide an NHL calibre backup goaltender for the first quarter of TWO seasons….costing us and handful of points in both 16/17 and 17/18.

To everyone who’s thinking…”what does the goalie matter if you can’t score” It matters a metric-shit ton. Anyone who’s played with a shit goalie for one night or a whole season knows it’s impossible to play anywhere near your best when you’re subconsciously compensating for a team weakness.

I’d fire Tmac and friends too, tomorrow at 10am PT… only as collateral damage to give a new GM his pick, and as a hail mary to hopefully give the team a boost and pray for a miracle to salvage the season…

It’s staring us right in the face. It’s not working. We’ve been here before. Hoping for the next high draft pick – it’s not going to work.Time to change.

Peter has to go before he can do more damage, his decision making is not acceptable. We will not contend with him.

Let’s look at Dallas or the Blues. They had talent but needed to keep improving. We need to keep improving using every opportunity out there, including draft. Which hasn’t done that much for us.Othing out of the first round, and many of those traded.

Blues did it right when they went out and target ed Schenn. We need difference makers, not buy outs cast offs and tweeters.

This 17/18 team may yet win a few based on improved player performance.But regardless of player performance we will not contend until we change the way this team views talent and manages talent.

Closer to OP’s position than yours. The projected Cap increase will mitigate the disaster that is the Lucic/Russell contracts and give space to sign Nurse and Benning. I was worried about that.

That said, PC absolutely has to change direction. He HAS to be patient. Pushing for the Cup every year will just bleed assets – both in regards to purchases made and in regards to cap/salary management.

We do have decent assets to trade, hell, even Fayne becomes tradeable this year. Maroon, Letestu and Auvitu (I will miss Auvitu) will all draw decent assets in return. Camalleri will bring an interesting return too, which isn’t bad for a bought asset.

The team needs quality, cost effective depth and the team has to start to steer towards speed in player acquisition.

What I would explore, were I PC, is whether or not there is a market for Sekera, Lucic or Russell and if any of them are interested in waiving their NMC. I like Sekera a lot but if I am patient then I can look at signing Auvitu and letting my defensive group develop together and sign a stop-gap (like Hainsey) when needed.

Was at the game and holy Gord, was one of the worst games I’ve ever seen live. We were 2nd row, right by Brossoit and by God was his rebound control awful. At this rate I can’t see them making the playoffs, let alone contending.

I agree with LT and the others. Doing something drastic right now would be about the worst thing possible. What frustrates me the most, I think, is the utter lack of forward prospects in the minors. This isn’t on Chia, of course, but I find it incomprehensible that we haven’t developed even a second round pick. I’m sure not thrilled with Chia at the moment though.