Persichilli: Character, not policy, is the issue

The political climate favours a leader who can inspire trust.

In 1990, the opposition at Queen’s Park convinced us that the arrogance of the then Liberal government of David Peterson was a problem. In 1995, the opposition told us that Ontario had to be saved from the fiscal irresponsibility of Bob Rae’s socialist government. In 2003, the opposition of the day told us that the social insensibility of Mike Harris was destroying the essence of what Ontario was all about (Ernie Eves is only an asterisk in Ontario politics).

So what’s the ballot box question Ontarians will be urged to answer when, in October, they have to choose a government for the following four years?

The economy will be a central issue, and there is a lot of unhappiness among voters about its instability. But it will be difficult for the opposition to frame a clear question on this subject. First, people know the economic crisis wasn’t generated in Ontario. Just like the rest of the industrialized world, we were forced to adopt and implement economic measures well outside of standard political ideology.

This journey into uncharted ideological territory leads to the second point: The strong cooperation between the federal Conservative government and the provincial Liberals in Ontario has further blurred the ideological difference between Liberals and Conservatives. When they’re speaking about the economy, the federal Conservatives sound like the Ontario Liberals, while the Ontario Conservatives make the same criticisms as the federal Liberals.

Given the striking similarities in rhetoric, it’s not a coincidence that the federal Liberal ballot question — were Canadians better off five years ago than they are now? — resonates so well with provincial Conservatives. But it’s unrealistic for Ontario Conservative Leader Tim Hudak to believe that he can win the next election by convincing Ontarians they are in bad shape because of Dalton McGuinty’s government, considering that McGuinty has coordinated economic management with Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s federal Conservatives.

Even the precarious harmonized sales tax debate might not be the decisive issue. After all, the reason the HST is now law in Ontario is because of the urging and cooperation of the federal Conservatives.

What about the other two major issues that have shaped the last three provincial elections — education and health care?

While the McGuinty government says, with some credibility, that it has stabilized education after the turbulent Harris era, education alone will not be the Liberals’ passport to a third term, any more than medicare will be the Conservatives’ silver bullet at the ballot box. Sure, the Liberals didn’t solve all the problems and the health-care system is in dire need of structural change, but the Conservatives don’t have the credibility to lead these changes (and certainly not to campaign on them).

So, if it’s not about the economy, education or medicare, what will the next provincial election be about?

It will be about credibility and competence. The party that will win the next provincial election will be the one with a leader capable of delivering a message of credibility and trust.

In this context, McGuinty has some heavy work ahead of him.

His problem isn’t the scars left by a tough recession. His credibility and competence have been tarnished by e-Health, golden contracts and the management style used in some departments, which have created a perception of corruption or incompetence. Furthermore, the many announcements that were made and then withdrawn have created an image of a weak and indecisive government. And the sight of provincial Liberals running for cover presents an image of rats abandoning a sinking ship.

What’s even more important is that Hudak could benefit from the historical tendency of the electorate to change governments when it suspects they are tired. The McGuinty government has that image.

But Hudak is not a shoo-in; he can’t count on Liberal fatigue to ensure his victory.

For most Ontarians, he is still a pig-in-a-poke and voters are not necessarily willing to bet on something they don’t know at a very difficult time, even if what they have is not perfect. Furthermore, McGuinty and his team might yet emerge from their lethargic sleep.

For now, the only sure thing about the upcoming campaign is that it is not going to be about issues. It’s going to be about trust and character.

Angelo Persichilli is the political editor of Corriere Canadese. His column appears Sunday.

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