The Bin Laden trade: $2 Billion bet markets will crash in less than 3 weeks

Read about the mechanics of the trade on the S&P at the tickerforum.org. Link to the thread that first noticed the trade and analyzed it is provided
below. The moderator of the site, Genesis, has dubbed the trade the "Bin Laden Trade" because the only way this enormous trade pays off is if
the market crashes more than 30% in less than 3 weeks. This is an investment forum. Traders with 25 years experience (avr8phil) are saying that
they have never seen a trade like this one. With such enormous risk and such a large sum at stake it can be surmised that the smart money "knows"
something big is coming.

The financial markets are useful to study because foreknowledge of attacks is usually there. People in the know often try to take advantage of their
inside knowledge. Prior to 9/11 we saw massive trades indicating that an attack was coming.

Huge surges in purchases of put options on stocks of the two airlines used in the attack -- United Airlines and American Airlines
Surges in purchases of put options on stocks of reinsurance companies expected to pay out billions to cover losses from the attack -- Munich Re and
the AXA Group
Surges in purchases of put options on stocks of financial services companies hurt by the attack -- Merrill Lynch & Co., and Morgan Stanley and Bank of
America
Huge surge in purchases of call options of stock of a weapons manufacturer expected to gain from the attack -- Raytheon
Huge surges in purchases of 5-Year US Treasury Notes

I'm not particularly savvy about the inner workings of the markets. But is this is true it would certainly seem to be immensely important. Surely
there are ATS experts that can offer some additional info to this.

This is speculative the US market is somewhat depressed and with the Fed bank bailing out stocks and bolstering the markets to the tune of 100+
billion a 2 billion gamble is nothing more than a small bet for big (and I do mean big) gambler/s.

It may suprise you to find out that this kind of gamble goes on all the time how else do people get rich

Americans may be a bit daft when it comes to some things but not when it comes to making (and protecting) money, especially their own!!!!!

No - its all done at the brokers and on the exchanges anything done behind closed doors is usually illegal - only corporate dealings are private and
they then effect stock prices. Anyone in the know and who gets caught is done for insider dealing or trading I believe.

on 15th of august, the new launch date of the japanese probe that will map and scan the moon by someone other than Nasa. The new launch date is 18
days from now. The options began to roll in on the 16th of august. So if you really want to stretch for an alternative reason behind the stockmarket
option I guess you could consider that before the end of september there will be some new images and data from the moon, with state of the art
equipment that does not belong to Nasa.

But yeah in any event, seems pretty interesting...

I guess the only thing we can do is wait and see what if anything happens.

An anonymous investor has placed a bet on an index of Europe's top 50 stocks falling by a third by the end of September, as world equity markets
plunged for a third day and volatility hit a three-year high.

The mystery investor has bought put option contracts on the DJ Eurostoxx 50 index that will result in a profit if it plunges to 2,800 or below by the
end of September. Based on the 2,800 strike price, the position covers a notional €6.9bn, and potentially even more using a market price of about
4,100 when the trades were done on Tuesday and Wednesday.

China's currency regulator this week said it will let Chinese citizens with a Bank of China account in the northern city of Tianjin buy Hong Kong
stocks for the first time, opening the gate for China's $2.2 trillion of household savings to flow offshore.

There are lots of little movements and uncomfortable tidbits of news that seem to point to something bad on the horizon.

While the Fed meets every year in Jackson Hole, Wyoming for its annual symposium, this year they're apparently meeting in the secret Continuity of
Government facility (Aug. 31). Never have they met there, if indeed these
reports bear truth.

The COG aspect seems to be rumor at this point. And if it's not true, than this is nothing but business as usual. What's especially noteworthy is
that its the Board of Governors who are meeting in COG -- they would be the ones fleeted to there in the event of an attack on America.

If you are seriously worried about the market crashing then get out of debt by September 21st, 2007 (the day the puts and calls expire) and buy lots
of camping gear and cases of clean water. Is it that hard to figure out?

Don't get skeered, get smart. You thought yourself into this state of mind now think your way out. Getting out of debt and paying off all credit
cards is a good place to start regardless if the market crashes or not.

What i find interesting is in that traders forum one of the posters makes the point that only a terrorist attack or a major assasination in September
could make the market lose 30%.........which makes me think of the APEC meeting being held in my hometown Sydney, Australia.

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