Trade Ideas and Updates Week 3 April

Week Open Thoughts

GBP

The pound ended last week consolidating against its counterparts. I will be watching for the end of these consolidations before trading.

In Brief:GBPUSD: A close above 1.2849 might be a reasonable trigger line however, care is needed major resistancelies around 1:30, that area will define weeks worht of action for the cable. If it breaks the multi year bear trend will be at an end, more likely it holds and the bear trend resumes.GBPJPY: I expect the pullback to continue to around 1:38, the possibility for a significant bull trend after that is significant. A new high would be enough to triggger a buy signal.

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Euro

The Euro spent the week consolidating, offering different signals against different pairs. The election result will potentially end the conflict and allow for a real forecast

In Brief:EURGBP: The pound is showing strength everywhere and I expect another fall for the EURGBP pehaps targetting 0.8250 (thats 200 pips).EURUSD: I can see bullish and bearish technicals. We need a resolutionEURJPY: Technicals are still signalling a significant riseis due, I got faked out on this early last week and if we get a postive resolution I will consider entering again. The GBP would seem to offer a better opportunity.

Other assets

Oil was the star last week with two great trades. Gold continues to benefit from a risk off feel as US equities continue to drift lower in ongoing corrective price action

In Brief:Oil: OPEC continue to struggle in their attempts to control the market. US shale producers appear able to swing into production easily and make money at lower than expected prices. Of course a political problem could change the dynamic and render the technicals irrelevant however, The chart (below) suggests that the first leg lower is now complete and a significant pullback is expected before more aggressive selling begins.Stocks: Choppy price action makes trading impossible but leads me to believe that new highs will eventually come to pass. On resolution of the correction I will be looking to buy an impulsive rise.

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