Amid good monsoon run, El Nino gains strength

Even as monsoon's great run continued and the season's countrywide rain tally grew to 23% above normal on Tuesday, US and Australian agencies reported a further strengthening of El Nino, the weather condition that is predicted to hit monsoon's performance in the coming months.

Both updates, one from Columbia University and the other from Australia's weather bureau, said El Nino was likely to grow stronger in the coming months.

"There is now a 99% chance of El Nino for the June-August season," said the update from Columbia's International Research Institute for Climate and Society.

The Australian forecast was similar. It added that conditions in the Indian Ocean were expected to remain neutral in the coming months. A positive phase is said to favour the southwest monsoon.

The twin updates come as a reminder that overall conditions continue to be adverse for good monsoon rains this year. These were the basis for the India Meteorological Department's forecast of a deficient monsoon this year.

However, as the plentiful rains in the past two weeks indicate, other factors could come to the aid of the monsoon from time to time. In the present case, it was a travelling rain-bearing weather disturbance called the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) that energized the monsoon and lead to its surge in central and south India. Other events such as typhoons in the Pacific can invigorate the Indian monsoon for a few if these are headed westwards.

With MJO's effect likely to wear thin in the next three-four days, the monsoon is expected to enter a weak phase by next week, which is likely to continue into the first week of July.

"There are weak and active phases in every monsoon season. During a bad monsoon year, the weak phases are more frequent and longer than in normal years," said B P Yadav, director, IMD.

Meanwhile, the monsoon on Tuesday entered more parts of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Bihar while covering the whole of Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand, and entering east Uttar Pradesh. It's expected to advance further into northwest India in the coming days.