I'm betting you're right. I would have liked to have seen him get another Yellow jersey yesterday. Don't thinkits likely to happen again.

I think the time gaps are big enough and the slopes gentle enough that LA could possibly get the yellow for at least one stage. He is not likely to be that tired yet. The back-to-back mountain stages and attacks from other teams will take their toll so this is his only chance to wear yellow again.

I think the time gaps are big enough and the slopes gentle enough that LA could possibly get the yellow for at least one stage. He is not likely to be that tired yet. The back-to-back mountain stages and attacks from other teams will take their toll so this is his only chance to wear yellow again.

You have to look at the stage 1 time trial. The TT has been LA's own domain for majority of his tour wins. On Saturday Contador put 22s into him in a just 10mi. that's a big chunk is such a short TT. The TT is NOT Contadors strong point, granted he's improved but it's not his specialty...climbing is and he's one of the worlds best. I just can't see Lance beating this guy on any mountain top finish. I know all you guys want Lance to ride away with this but gaining few seconds on flat road stage because he was attentive or tipped off or AC was asleep at the wheel is not going to counter AC's ability to go up hill.

You have to look at the stage 1 time trial. The TT has been LA's own domain for majority of his tour wins. On Saturday Contador put 22s into him in a just 10mi. that's a big chunk is such a short TT. The TT is NOT Contadors strong point, granted he's improved but it's not his specialty...climbing is and he's one of the worlds best. I just can't see Lance beating this guy on any mountain top finish. I know all you guys want Lance to ride away with this but gaining few seconds on flat road stage because he was attentive or tipped off or AC was asleep at the wheel is not going to counter AC's ability to go up hill.

I agree with you. But at last check Lance doesn't have to beat anyone but Cancellara to get yellow. The next non-Astana rider that could present a problem is CVV at 1:16. So, while I still believe that LA will fall out of the top 10 by Tour's end he does have a good chance of wearing yellow one more time.

I agree with you. But at last check Lance doesn't have to beat anyone but Cancellara to get yellow. The next non-Astana rider that could present a problem is CVV at 1:16. So, while I still believe that LA will fall out of the top 10 by Tour's end he does have a good chance of wearing yellow one more time.

When do you think this is going to happen? Tomorrow is a flat stage and not likely to have any impact on the GC, unless Fab has an Alberto moment. Friday is a day for the climbers and AC is only 19s out of yellow, Saturday is again a day for the climbers. By days end on Sat Lance should be behind AC by a decent chunk.

I agree with you. But at last check Lance doesn't have to beat anyone but Cancellara to get yellow. The next non-Astana rider that could present a problem is CVV at 1:16. So, while I still believe that LA will fall out of the top 10 by Tour's end he does have a good chance of wearing yellow one more time.

He has to beat Cancellera Friday, pretty much a given. But he also has to not conceed more than 19 seconds to Contador. Friday's finishing HC climb is 7% grade for 10km, which admittedly is not that tough for an HC climb, but it still be enough for Contador to put at least 30 seconds into Armstrong.

I think the only way that doesn't happen is if a select group including Armstrong, Contador, and other favorites such as Evans et al, climb most of Friday's finish together with no one making a decisive move.

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He has to beat Cancellera Friday, pretty much a given. But he also has to not conceed more than 19 seconds to Contador. Friday's finishing HC climb is 7% grade for 10km, which admittedly is not that tough for an HC climb, but it still be enough for Contador to put at least 30 seconds into Armstrong.

I think the only way that doesn't happen is if a select group including Armstrong, Contador, and other favorites such as Evans et al, climb most of Friday's finish together with no one making a decisive move.

If AC allows this to happen he's cooked as team leader, he needs to (and I think he will) stamp is authority as the "man" on this team. If he puts another 20-30s into Cadel it will be as much as death sentence for any hope he had for a win..that being said, after what took place yesterday Evans, Sastre and A. Schleck are going to have to attack the sh#t out of Astana which will work in AC's favor...he has the best change of pace (along with maybe A. Schleck) of any of the contenders.

When do you think this is going to happen? Tomorrow is a flat stage and not likely to have any impact on the GC, unless Fab has an Alberto moment. Friday is a day for the climbers and AC is only 19s out of yellow, Saturday is again a day for the climbers. By days end on Sat Lance should be behind AC by a decent chunk.

Quote:

Originally Posted by merlinextraligh

He has to beat Cancellera Friday, pretty much a given. But he also has to not conceed more than 19 seconds to Contador. Friday's finishing HC climb is 7% grade for 10km, which admittedly is not that tough for an HC climb, but it still be enough for Contador to put at least 30 seconds into Armstrong.

I think the only way that doesn't happen is if a select group including Armstrong, Contador, and other favorites such as Evans et al, climb most of Friday's finish together with no one making a decisive move.

I see this happening Friday. Astana is bunched up in the GC. They don't need to attack anyone unless other contenders make a move. You are getting caught up in the LA vs AC hype if you think Astana riders have any reason to attack each other. What would be the purpose of doing that in the 7th stage of a 21 stage PROFESSIONAL stage race? The TDF no less!

I see this happening Friday. Astana is bunched up in the GC. They don't need to attack anyone unless other contenders make a move. You are getting caught up in the LA vs AC hype if you think Astana riders have any reason to attack each other. What would be the purpose of doing that in the 7th stage of a 21 stage PROFESSIONAL stage race? The TDF no less!

Cadel Evans, Carlos Sastre and Andy Schleck are all GC contenders who lost out on yesterdays TTT. The only hope they have in moving up the order until the last TT is in the high mountains. Friday will be their first chance to do this. When one or more them go AC will have to respond...once the attacks start he is better suited to react. Once he has a gap he's not going to slow down to wait for LA. The odds are better that AC will be in yellow after the weekend than Lance.

You have to look at the stage 1 time trial. The TT has been LA's own domain for majority of his tour wins. On Saturday Contador put 22s into him in a just 10mi. that's a big chunk is such a short TT. The TT is NOT Contadors strong point, granted he's improved but it's not his specialty...climbing is and he's one of the worlds best. I just can't see Lance beating this guy on any mountain top finish. I know all you guys want Lance to ride away with this but gaining few seconds on flat road stage because he was attentive or tipped off or AC was asleep at the wheel is not going to counter AC's ability to go up hill.