Latest Poll Conflicts With Others and Shows Spitzer Still Ahead

A day after two polls came out showing ex-Gov. Eliot Spitzer’s once-commanding lead in the comptroller’s race had vanished, another new poll tells quite a different story.

A New York Times poll released today found that Mr. Spitzer is still leading his opponent, Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer, 50 to 35 percent among likely voters–a far cry from yesterday’s Quinnipiac poll, showing them tied, and another, from amNewYork and News 12 Long Island, showing them locked in a dead heat less than two weeks before the September 10 Democratic primary.

However, there is a caveat: the Times poll–conducted by Siena College–went into the field for an unusually long period of time, beginning on August 19 and lasting through August 28, and may have missed some of the recent movement toward Mr. Stringer in the final stretch of the race. In comparison, yesterday’s two polls surveyed the electorate from August 22 to 27. Mr. Stringer has heavily ramped up his campaign advertising in recent days as part of an effort to boost his name recognition.

“While Stringer is running even with Spitzer in Manhattan, Spitzer leads Stringer by more than 20 points in Queens and the Bronx and has a nine-point lead in Brooklyn,” said Siena pollster Steven Greenberg. “Spitzer has a slightly positive 46-41 percent favorability rating and Stringer remains largely unknown to half of the likely voters, with a 31-19 percent favorability rating.”

Mr. Greenberg’s rhetoric is a far cry from Quinnipiac pollster Mickey Carroll’s, who declared days earlier, “The entire political and media world has jumped on Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer’s bandwagon, helping him poll-vault from 19 points down to dead even in just two weeks.”

Mr. Spitzer’s press team quickly took to Twitter to call out Mr. Stringer’s campaign for taking what Capital Tonight described as a “premature victory lap” for touting yesterday’s numbers, declaring that, “Public polling is catching up to what we are seeing on the subways and streets.”

But Mr. Stringer’s spokeswoman, Audrey Gelman, remained confident this morning. “As more New Yorkers get to know Scott, we’re confident he will be the clear choice to be the city’s next comptroller,” she told Politicker.