The Cost Of Political Air Cover

July 20, 1994|By DON NOEL Don Noel is The Courant's political columnist.

In politics as in military combat, the best ground troops may not prevail without air cover.

I owe the analogy to Robert J. Jaekle. The Republican auditor of public accounts, former House minority leader and 1990 candidate for lieutenant governor, will preside over this weekend's GOP state convention.

His aphorism applies especially to Secretary of the State Pauline R. Kezer, the GOP gubernatorial underdog. It's also a cautionary note for Comptroller William E. Curry Jr., who came in second in last Saturday's Democratic balloting but qualified easily for a September primary.

Both have the ground forces for a summer-long primary campaign; both are short of money.

Money buys the air cover Jaekle refers to: television commercials.

In military combat, the capacity for saturation bombing is critical. In politics, it's the ability to saturate the television airwaves with one's message.

Curry, of Farmington, will challenge party-endorsed candidate John B. Larson of East Hartford.

Larson has raised almost twice as much campaign money as Curry.

Kezer, of Plainville, needs to keep her ground forces loyal and win 15 percent of the delegate votes this Saturday. She would then face the party- endorsed candidate, John G. Rowland of Waterbury, in September.

Rowland has raised nearly nine times as much as Kezer.

Curry can draw on the network of political activists developed for two decades by the Legislative Electoral Action Project, a labor-liberal coalition. LEAP has made impressive gains in the General Assembly.

Curry also is promised the active support of unions with 120,000 members -- and the telephone banks to get those members to the polls. That's an impressive ground army.

Democratic big-city mayors wanted Bridgeport's Joseph P. Ganim on the ticket because the party regulars' rapid-deployment forces are urban.

The money advantage is Larson's. Curry brags of raising as much money in the second quarter of the year as in the first, while Larson's pace slowed down. In each quarter, however, Larson raised more than Curry.

Despite a big pre-convention television buy, Larson began the month with $368,008 to Curry's $119,337.

Kezer's problem is more daunting. Rowland hopes to persuade her delegates that she has so little money that she cannot win in September -- so they should abandon her now.

His delegate-snatchers argue, in effect, that Kezer's candidacy is a textbook example of the Jaekle dictum: She will be able to afford almost no air cover, and doesn't have the massive ground army Curry counts on.

Rowland also can argue that the $1,421,665 he has raised so far may outstrip all other gubernatorial contenders, but it's not a lot of money.

If Kezer primaries, he will have to try to defeat her resoundingly. That could leave him too little money to dominate the air in the final eight weeks to the November election.

Republicans are aware that their cumulative fund-raising to July 7 is behind the Democrats'. Kezer and Rowland raised $1,582,851, while the four Democrats raised $2,474,538.

The eventual Democratic nominee, moreover, should benefit from the re-election war chest already collected by U.S. Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman: $4.4 million -- nearly as much as all seven gubernatorial hopefuls have raised, including A Connecticut Party's Eunice S. Groark.

Lieberman's staff is heading up a Democratic effort to coordinate all candidates' post-primarycampaigns in such items as direct mailings.

Under fire for agreeing to appear on Groark's top line, he's likely to soothe ruffled Democratic feathers by kicking in more than he'd planned for joint advertising and mailings.

So Kezer's problem is not only that she can afford no television, but that her challenge could leave Rowland grounded after September.

If she keeps her delegates in line Saturday, it will be a stunning show of loyalty.

Rowland hopes enough delegates will desert to him to avert a primary -- and husband his resources for an aerial blitzkrieg in September after the Democrats duke it out.