India story strong: Experts toe government's line on economy

In its report, Standard Chartered says: "This (the figure of $45 billion) is lower that our August expectation of $71.8 billion, or 4 per cent of GDP."

India's long-term growth story is strong - the statement seems to be gaining weight by the day.

The government and analysts have been saying this for long now, but today it appears to have become an official statement of sorts, with Standard Chartered and a report by SBI (Ecowrap) giving projections that support claims on the same.

The ministry of finance had sometime back revised its projection of current account deficit, seen as key for ratings agencies to judge the state of economy in present circumstances, to $48 billion, lower than its the projections of $70 billion.

Given the reputation of the government on its decision-making capabilities, the projection may have been rebuffed by many.

But today, the same was backed by Standard Chartered, which lowered its forecast for India's CAD to $45 billion.

This figure of $45 billion is even lower than the government's.

It may be noted here that top brokerages and ratings agencies have been reminding that India needs to rein in its CAD to save its rating and maintain its long-term growth prospects.

Adding to this, a report by SBI's India's CAD may slide to 3.3%-3.4 per cent of GDP in FY14.

"The absolute level of CAD may decline to $64 billion, with a downside," the report says.

Although this projection is more than what the government and StanC have given, this comes as a reassertment of the fact that what is pegged as the most crucial impediment for the country's economic prospects would being reined in.

"While we believe gold imports in Q2 of current fiscal year has virtually collapsed, we still need to watch out for imports during October-January, as it constitutes nearly 40 per cent of total import value on a trend basis," the report cautions.

In its report, Standard Chartered says: "This (the figure of $45 billion) is lower that our August expectation of $71.8 billion, or 4 per cent of GDP."

"The cut comes on the basis of likely subdued oil imports and robust exports in the second half of FY14," it further said.

Here are some of the measures that the government took to curb gold import, as per SBI's Ecowrap report:

24 Jun 2013: India's biggest jewellers' association asks members to stop selling gold bars and coins, about 35% of their business

13 Aug 2013: India hikes import duty on gold for a third time in 2013 to 10%. Duties for silver and platinum also increased to 10%. Customs duty on gold bars, ore or concentrate increased to 8% from 6%