Hawaii’s Mountains – Here’s a link to the live web cam on the summit of near 13,800 foot Mauna Keaon the Big Island of Hawaii. This web cam is available during the daylight hours here in the islands…and when there’s a big moon shining down during the night at times. Plus, during the nights you will be able to see stars, and the sunrise and sunset too…depending upon weather conditions. Here's the Haleakala Crater webcam on Maui…although this webcam is not always working correctly. Tropical Cyclone activity in the eastern and central Pacific– Here’s the latest weather information coming out of theNational Hurricane Center, covering the eastern north Pacific. You can find the latest tropical cyclone information for the central north Pacific (where Hawaii is located) by clicking on this link to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. A satellite image, which shows the entire ocean area between Hawaii and the Mexican coast…can be found here.

Our local winds will remain rather strong and gusty…mellowing only a notch or so as we move into the new week. We currently find a near 1029 millibar high pressure system (weather map), located to the north of the islands…which is slowly migrating southward towards the state. The winds topped out just above 40 mph in a gust on Friday, with another gust of 42 mph reported early this afternoon on Kahoolawe. We continue to have small craft wind advisory flags up, although they cover only around those windiest spots in Maui County and the Big Island. The trades should remain active through mid-week, and thereafter could become quite light…perhaps even veering around to the southeast or south during the second half of the new work week.

As we look at this satellite image,it shows still lots more high and middle level clouds sweeping over the island chain. There will continue to be passing windward biased showers arriving at times, and as the trade winds remain so active, we continue to see a few showers carried over into the leeward sides on Molokai, Oahu and Kauai at times too. The models are showing an area of light showers moving towards the state after the weekend, and if they were to actually arrive, and that's still a question, they might take aim on the Big Island end of the state Sunday night or early Monday morning…although they won't amount to much either way.

Friday night is still movie night in my life…apparently.Friday evening I had planned to see the new film Cloud Atlas, although when I got down there, the starting time was different than I'd thought it would be. So, I saw another I'd been wanting to see, called Argo, starring Ben Affleck, Alan Arkin, John Goodman, Bryan Cranston, Taylor Schilling and Scoot McNairy…among many others. The synopsis: based on true events, Argo chronicles the life-or-death covert operation to rescue six Americans, which unfolded behind the scenes of the Iran hostage crisis-the truth of which was unknown by the public for decades. On November 4, 1979, as the Iranian revolution reaches its boiling point, militants storm the U.S. embassy in Tehran, taking 52 Americans hostage. But, in the midst of the chaos, six Americans manage to slip away and find refuge in the home of the Canadian ambassador. Knowing it is only a matter of time before the six are found out and likely killed, a CIA "exfiltration" specialist named Tony Mendez (Ben Affleck) comes up with a risky plan to get them safely out of the country. A plan so incredible, it could only happen in the movies. The reviews are very positive on this film, and I recall after seeing the trailer the first time, I wanted to see it very much. My friend Bob in California told me he liked this film very much, and as it turns out, so did I. It was tense, exciting, and often darkly comic, and at the same time…very clever, taut and restrained. It was an amazing real life caper, and to say the least, a bizarre adventure. As for a grade, I'd easily give it a B+, and it deserves every bit of it. Here's the trailer.

Here in Kula, Maui at 515pm Saturday evening, it was mostly cloudy with light breezes…and an air temperature of 66.7F degrees.The weather here in Hawaii will remain quite windy, although gradually become slightly less so over the next several days. This looping satellite image shows this extensive area of high level moisture coming up from the deeper tropics. The latest guidance shows these cirrus clouds sticking around through the weekend, then clearing briefly on Monday. This implies that they will filter our sunshine during the day again on Sunday, as they have been doing the last few days…although provide possible nice sunset and sunrise colors. ~~~ As I was saying here last evening, I think of this time of year becoming a bit more active, in terms of cold fronts and such.

I've been keeping an eye on both the GFS and the NOGAPS weather models out through the 24th (next Saturday), and found no cold frontal activity reaching down into our tropical latitudes. The Navy NOGAPS does however show an interesting area of low pressure, with its associated slug of tropical moisture forming to the southwest of the state on the 20th (Tuesday). This area of showers then moves up northward, bringing showers to the Kauai end of the island chain on the 21st through 22nd (later Wednesday into Thursday)…and then to the rest of the state on Friday the 23rd. The GFS model doesn't show the same pattern, bringing a lesser amount of showers to the Big Island and perhaps Maui early Monday. I'll keep an eye on this, and see if the NOGAPS backs off on its rainy idea near Thanksgiving, or the GFS joins in with NOGAPS.

I had a nice brisk walk on Thompson Ranch Road this morning, down in Keokea. I spent the rest of the day here at home in Kula, which was pleasant. My neighbor Jeff sent a text wondering if I wanted to do something tonight, you know like doing some drinkin' and having dinner together. He suggested Mama's in Kuau down near Paia, although I'm not feeling all that social at the moment. That could change after a glass of wine of course, so I'm not sure where I'll end up for dinner. At any rate I'll be back in the morning with your next weather narrative update, I hope you have a great Saturday night wherever you're spending it! Aloha for now…Glenn.

Western Pacific Ocean: There are no active tropical cyclonesSouth Pacific Ocean:There are no active tropical cyclones

North and South Indian Oceans:North and South Indian Oceans:Tropical cyclone 03Bremains active in the north Indian Ocean, located 465 NM Chennai, India. The JTWC shows that it has 35 knot sustained winds, with gusts to near 45 knots. Here's a graphical track map for thistropical storm…along with asatellite image.

Interesting: We love Tuna! We love to eat Tuna! And the great Tuna are being seriously overfished. Attempts to remedy this situation have not been effective to date. Now the University of Hawaii has come up with a new approach that holds promise. A fish modelling study has found that marine zoning in the Pacific Ocean, in combination with other measures, could significantly improve numbers of heavily overfished bigeye tuna and improve local economies.

Scientists working at the University of Hawai'i at M?noa, the Secretariat of the Pacific Community (SPC, Noumea, New Caledonia) and Collecte Localisation Satellites (CLS, Toulouse, France), have found that a network of marine zones in the Pacific Ocean could be a more effective conservation measure than simply closing relatively small areas to some types of fishing.

These marine zones, where different fishing activities are allowed in different areas, may have significant and widespread benefits for bigeye tuna numbers.

After testing the effectiveness of a range of conservation measures with an ecosystem and fish population model, Sibert says the team found that the most effective measures were to:

– restrict longline fishing in tuna-spawning areas

– manage the use of fish-aggregating devices (e.g. moored or drifting buoys which attract fish) in purse-seine areas.

"We found that simply closing areas off to fishing doesn't work, because the boats just move their operations to neighbouring zones and fish even harder. It’s going to need a combination of approaches," said Sibert. "The model will help people evaluate alternative policies to manage tropical tuna fisheries.

Our predictions can help countries estimate how effective conservation measures might be, relative to any economic effects, and tailor measures to suit their goals. The advantage of this approach is that effects can be estimated locally, as well as for the stock as a whole."

Didn't run into Oprah, did you? 😉 That is such nice country. Love biking it with Marc and Karen from Aloha when we are over there. Loved following your vacation blog. Sounded like a great time. Glad to hear your mom is doing ok after your dad's passing. Looking forward to getting back at Easter. It's got to feel good to get home. I would love to see the leeward side all green again when we get there. It's been so brown these last number of years.

Glenn in South Jersey~~~Hi Glenn, good to hear from you again. I didn’t see her, but enjoyed gazing on her 1000 acres there in Keokea! She’s going to be doing a really big organic farm there, really nice rock wall terraces going up. I did have a wonderful vacation, and it is great getting back here…although there’s a part of my heart that I leave there each time. Yes, my Mom, she’s a very strong woman, 90 going on 70 for sure…she’s going to make 100, mark my words. Those leeward sides will eventually turn green, although I hear its pretty dry over that way, what with the red flag fire warnings up the other day. Hurry back Glenn, Easter’s right around the corner, well…after Thanksgiving and Christmas that is. Aloha, Glenn

Aloha Glenn! Speaking of weather models, I read that the european model did a much better job than NOGAPS and GFS in predicting Sandy and many forecasters believe it has become superior to our north american models – even when modeling north american weather. Any thoughts on that? –ben~~~Hi Ben, I read that article as well, enjoyed it. I don’t consider myself an expert on weather modelling by any means, so I actually don’t have many thoughts on the matter, at least none of which would be very interesting I think. I’ve just gotten used to, over the years…on depending upon these two models for here in the Pacific. I would be interested in hearing your take on the good question you pose however. Thanks for your note! Aloha, Glenn