WOMENS TOURNAMENT BREAKDOWN

Michelle Smith

Published 4:00 am, Tuesday, March 14, 2006

ALBUQUERQUE REGIONAL

Projected winner: Maryland. The Terrapins are tested from a season in the best conference in America -- the ACC -- and they are the best team in what appears to be the weakest region. Top-seeded Ohio State is a debatable No. 1 seed here with a strength-of-schedule that ranked 21st in the country. The Buckeyes, with junior center Jessica Davenport, ran the table in a down year for the Big Ten. Maryland is balanced -- with all five starters averaging double figures -- and ready for the spotlight.

Choice matchup: Cal vs. Maryland. The Bears, making their first NCAA Tournament appearance in 13 years, will have a huge challenge -- if they get past St. John's -- in taking on the No. 2 seed in the second round. But if Cal can find its defensive mettle and play the way it did in beating Arizona State, UCLA, USC and Washington, the Bears could make things very interesting.

Sleeper: Arizona State. The fourth-seeded Sun Devils play that aggressive defense that nobody likes to see and they will be playing close to home in Tucson. That could mean a second consecutive trip to the Sweet 16.

Noteworthy: The last time Ohio State received a No. 1 seed, in 1993, the Buckeyes went to the Final Four. ...The first-time entrants in this region are Sacred Heart and Northern Arizona.

BRIDGEPORT REGIONAL

Projected winner: Duke. Though Connecticut will have the benefit of a home crowd in Bridgeport, the momentum of a Big East tournament title and three national championship trophies in the last four years, the Blue Devils will punch the ticket to Boston. Duke has experienced players in the frontcourt and the backcourt, and an unmistakable hunger to validate its elite status with an NCAA title. Though this is the deepest Duke has been in a few years, senior guard Monique Currie sets the tone and the Blue Devils will go as Currie goes.

Choice matchup: Temple vs. Hartford, first round. It's a matchup between Dawn Staley and Jennifer Rizzotti, both outstanding point guards, both national players of the year, both proving to be effective college coaches. This one has the fun factor.

Sleeper: No. 4 Michigan State. The Spartans are not exactly a hidden gem as the national runners-up from last season, but they've taken it on the chin this season in high-profile games against Maryland, Tennessee, LSU and Ohio State. Still, with experienced players such as Liz Shimek and Lindsay Bowen, the potential for another long run is there.

Noteworthy: This bracket marks the first time since 1987 that neither Connecticut nor Tennessee is a No. 1 seed. ...The Kentucky women's team ended up with a higher seed in the NCAA Tournament than the men's team. ...South Florida, who will meet USC in the first round, boasts the nation's third-leading scorer in Jessica Dickson, who is averaging 22.1 points a game. ... Duke received its fourth No. 1 seed in the past five seasons.

CLEVELAND REGIONAL

Projected winner: North Carolina. It's not going to be easy, though. This is the toughest bracket in the tournament. Still, the top-seeded Tar Heels have something that No. 2 seed Tennessee doesn't: a point guard. Ivory Latta will be the difference as North Carolina makes a run at its first national championship since 1994. North Carolina has to handle a bracket that includes the motivated Lady Vols, Rutgers, Purdue, UCLA and a potential second-round matchup with Vanderbilt on the Commodores' home court in Nashville.

Choice matchup: Tennessee vs. Rutgers, regional semifinals. The Lady Vols and coach Pat Summitt will ride their seeding slight as far as the can before they run into the Scarlet Knights, motivated by their own drop to a No. 3 seed after falling to West Virginia in the Big East tournament. Rutgers plays some of the toughest defense in the country, with opponents shooting 36 percent from the field. Their pressure will make it hard for a Tennessee team that barely has used its bench in recent weeks.

Sleeper: No. 6 seed Texas A&M. Coach Gary Blair coached Arkansas in 1999 when the Razorbacks were the lowest seed ever to reach the Final Four.

Noteworthy: Despite losing to two unranked teams for the first time since 1976, Tennessee has 20 wins this season over teams in the field of 64. ... North Carolina coach Sylvia Hatchell's reaction to her team's placement: "It's like the Final Four! I don't know how any bracket can get tougher than our bracket. ... But hey, that's just the way it is. We have to go play those games."

SAN ANTONIO REGIONAL

Projected winner: Oklahoma. This is the Sooners' year. And by year, we mean 2006 because Oklahoma is 19-1 since the calendar turned. Courtney Paris is the star here, but there's obviously plenty of support from the likes of Leah Rush, Chelsi Welch and Erin Higgins. LSU is a No. 1 seed for the third time in four years, and the Tigers have the defending national player of the year in Seimone Augustus, but if it comes down to centers, the freshman Paris will trump LSU's sophomore Sylvia Fowles.

Choice matchup: Stanford vs. Oklahoma, regional semifinals. Brooke Smith's hook meets Courtney Paris. It will be a tall order for the young Cardinal to win this game and intriguing to watch them try.

Sleeper: North Carolina State. The fifth-seeded Wolfpack have won six of their last eight games, have a top-10 RPI and five hungry seniors. N.C. State has played 13 games this season against teams in the NCAA field, going 7-6. This is the recipe for a Cinderella story.

Noteworthy: Courtney Paris needs three rebounds to become the first player in NCAA history to log 700 points, 500 rebounds and 100 blocked shots in a season. ... Pepperdine, which earned admission by winning the WCC tournament, is the only team in the field with a losing record (14-16). ...This region has three of the eight first-time participants: Southeast Missouri State, Tulsa and Florida Atlantic.