Michael On Television

Uh Oh – Italy Is Coming Apart Like A 20 Dollar Suit

By Michael Snyder, on July 11th, 2011

Did anyone really think that Italy would be able to get through this thing without needing a bailout? Just when you thought that things in Europe could get back to normal for a little while, here comes Italy. On Friday, there was a bit of a “mini-panic” as investors started dumping Italian financial assets. European officials are concerned that the sovereign debt crisis that has ravaged Greece, Ireland and Portugal will now put the Italian economy through the wringer. European Council President Herman Van Rompuy has called an emergency meeting for Monday morning. He is denying that the meeting is about Italy, but everyone knows that Italy is going to be discussed. European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet and European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso along with a host of other top officials will also be at this meeting. If it does turn out that Italy needs a bailout, it is going to change the entire game in Europe.

What is going on in Italy right now is potentially far more serious than what has been going on in Greece. Italy is the fourth largest economy in the European Union. If Italy requires a bailout, the rest of Europe might not be able to handle it.

This latest crisis was precipitated by a substantial sell-off of Italian financial assets on Friday. An article posted by Bloomberg described the pounding that the two largest Italian banks took….

UniCredit SpA (UCG) and Intesa Sanpaolo SpA (ISP), Italy’s biggest banks, fell to the lowest in more than two years in Milan yesterday as contagion from Europe’s debt crisis threatened to spread to the region’s third-largest economy.

UniCredit plunged 7.9 percent, the biggest decline since March 30, 2009, while Intesa dropped 4.6 percent. Both hit lows not seen since the period when markets were emerging from the crisis spawned by the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.

Unfortunately, this is just the continuation of a trend that has been going on for a while.

When you look at them as a group, the stocks of the five largest Italian banks have lost 27% since the beginning of 2011.

The spread of the Italian 10-year government bond yield over benchmark German Bunds hit euro lifetime highs around 2.45 percentage points on Friday, raising the Italian yield to 5.28 percent, close to the 5.5-5.7 percent area which some bankers think could start putting heavy pressure on Italy’s finances.

The Italian national debt is now up to about 120 percent of GDP. The Italian government would be able to manage it if interest rates were very, very low. But unfortunately they are rising fast and if they get too much higher they are going to become suffocating.

As I have written about previously, government debt becomes very painful once you take low interest rates out of the equation. For example, if Greece could borrow all of the money that it wanted to borrow at zero percent interest, it would not have a debt problem. But now the yield on 2 year Greek bonds is over 30 percent, and there is not a government on the face of the earth that can afford to pay interest that high for long.

If things continue to unravel in Italy, all of the credit agencies may downgrade Italy sooner rather than later.

The frightening thing about Italy is that a financial crisis has a way of exposing corruption, and there are very few countries that can match the kind of corruption that goes on in Italy.

As a child, I had the chance to live in Italy. I love Italy. The people are friendly, the weather is great, the architecture is amazing and the food is spectacular. I will always have great affection for Italy and I will always cheer for the Italian national team when the World Cup rolls around.

However, I also know that corruption is deeply ingrained into Italian culture. It is simply a way of life.

Just check out the prime minister of Italy. Silvio Berlusconi is the consummate Italian politician. He is greatly loved by many, but it would take days to detail all of the scandals that he has been linked to.

At this point, Berlusconi has become a parody of himself. Each new sex scandal or financial scandal just adds to his legend. Italy is one of the only nations in Europe where such a corrupt politician could have stayed in office for so long.

Not that the U.S. government is much better. Our government becomes more corrupt with each passing year.

But the point is that if a financial collapse happens in Italy and people start “turning over rocks” it could turn up all sorts of icky stuff.

So what is Europe going to do if Italy needs a bailout?

Well, they are probably going to have to fire up the printing presses because it would probably take a whole lot more euros than they have right now.

The truth is that the EU has now entered a permanent financial crisis. You have a whole bunch of nations that have accumulated unsustainable debts and that cannot print their own currencies. The financial system of the EU as it is currently constructed simply does not work.

Some believe that the sovereign debt crisis will eventually cause the breakup of the EU. Others believe that this crisis will cause it to be reformed and become much more integrated.

In any event, what just about everyone can agree on is that the financial problems of Europe are not going away any time soon. For now, EU officials are keeping all of the balls in the air, but if at some point the juggling act falters, the rest of the world better look out.

A financial crash in Europe would be felt in every nation on earth and it would be absolutely devastating. Let’s hope that we still have some more time before it happens.

Italy is toast as well as the EU and Euro currency. I think it will be papered over for a few more months then bombs away! The huge global crash!

007

Gosh, I love socialism. So this is what a successful European welfare state looks like.

Germany and the other responsible countries in the EU are going to have to bail them out. So shut up Germany and pull out your wallet again. The Italians want to sit on their asses, drink and spend whatever they want. You co-signed for them, so could you work a little harder and faster to pay Italy’s bills. This credit crisis is very annoying to the Italians, it is spoiling their party. So step up the bailouts please.

Nickelthrower

Greetings,

Having lived and worked in German and Italy, I can say that their form of Socialism works just fine. Those people live longer and healthier lives, work less and, per capita, out export the United States and China. Also, a 7th grader in those countries is educated better than our college graduates. It can’t be helped given that we rank DEAD LAST in education for the industrialized countries.

These terrible debts are do to corruption and speculation and are not problems caused by the working class.

Finally, given that fewer than 3% of Americans even have a passport, I can hedge my bet and say that you’ve actually never spent any time there.

Go spend a few years there before you bash their social policies.

Green Mountain

“”Also, a 7th grader in those countries is educated better than our college graduates.””

Come on now. That’s cheap hyperbole. Even so, exactly what does Europe do with those superior educations? They don’t lead the world in anything. They are irrelevant, old, and musty.

The US led the world in everything before the Progressives steered the ship.

“It can’t be helped given that we rank DEAD LAST in education for the industrialized countries.”

WROOONG! We are average. That’s nothing to boast about, obviously, but it is far from “dead last.”

And, again, you can thank the Progressive-liberal NEA for that, anyways. I mean, do you think it is a coincidence that since the Socialist-Progressives have taken over education in this country that our rankings and performance have dropped? It is INCIDENTAL, I’m afraid.

“Finally, given that fewer than 3% of Americans even have a passport, I can hedge my bet and say that you’ve actually never spent any time there.”

“Having lived and worked in German and Italy, I can say that their form of Socialism works just fine.”

Really, you think it is acceptable that in England the young left wingers riot as soon as the nanny government takes something from them?
I mean, really. Rioting because the government forced them to work an extra 2 years that won’t even take effect until 30 years later in their terrible, spoiled lives. Really?

“Those people live longer and healthier lives, work less and, per capita, out export the United States and China.”

They live healthier lives because they ARE healthier. They eat better food. They have a better eating culture. What’s that have to do with the government?

Sorry, but this country didn’t get to where it was by working 35 hrs a week and taking 5 vacations a year. Explain that kind of working culture to Japan and they would laugh at you, rightfully so.

007

Technically the EU can’t just print money according to the EU charter. But, when the fit hits the sham I suspect they will find a way to print money and give the PIGS some. Of course that should cause massive inflation throughout Europe and destroy the value of the Euro.

John S

Maybe the EU will find a way to use trillions of printed dollars to bail out the PIGS. That way U.S. taxpayers can pay for it…

McKinley Morganfield

“A financial crash in Europe would be felt in every nation on earth and it would be absolutely devastating. Let’s hope that we still have some more time before it happens.”

An excellent portrait of the Euro Zone crisis. Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Italy, and Spain will topple within 6-9 months and banks in Germany, France, FInland, Austria, and elsewhere will take the hit. The sovereign debt plague will spread to the USA and we will be too big to save. 2 years tops.

Ashes, Ashes we all fall down. Get ready as best as you can. And get to know your neighbors.

gian

Michael,
dont make the mistake of believing to the media BS about Berlusconi. he is no “consummate politician”, he is in fact a very successful businessman. and the “scandals” are inventions of a corrupted, partisan and dishonest judiciary that is trying to get rid of him. even a very superficial research will clearly show this. berlusconi is no saint and has his responsibilities, but the investigations and trials in which he is involved are bogus.
as for the corruption deeply ingrained in italian culture, this is also wrong. the italians are not corrupted, the italian central state is. italians merely try to survive in a very hostile environment generated by a massive, inept, corrupt central state which suffocates italy with taxes and bureaucracy.
so please, dont fall for the italian state run propaganda. MSM is the last place where to take info about a country, expecially italy, where the media is also partisan, antiberlusconi and aligned to the left.

claudiadisio

I hope you are joking!!! Berlusconi is a successful business man?!?! What??? He’s been corrupting people right from the start…and no one even knows where he got the money in the first place to begin his businesses…Call that a successful business man?!?…If you say the media is against him I think you haven’t got a clue about the situation in Italy…HE OWNS THE MEDIA! Italy is a very corrupt nation, right from the local governments and private businesses…And things are getting worse not better

Okie Dan

There is a parallel between the US of A and Europa. In Euroland, the debts of individual nations within the Euro community is increasing the potential of an unmanageable economic crisis. In the USA, in addition to a runaway federal deficit, and high unemployment we have several states with budget crises that will eventually need either written off or bailed out. As exporting nations including OPEC and the BRICS tire of being paid in devaluing currencies, they will likely begin wanting hard currency backed by gold, silver, platinum, or assets. They will resist being paid in dollars and Euros that lose value with each passing day. We live in a consumer driven economy only until the producer wants something valuable for his valuable products.

Hello Kitty Karmic Justice Baby

Italy turned her back on Christian Catholicism and promoted secularism and “fortune telling” and now Italy is facing nightmares.

As the Planted in Sin—Italy is now Reaping in Death. Italy’s Sins Equals Death.

patriot Alice

Italians were prosecuted terribly in the name of religion…

jmcguire30

Then why is jesusland (usa) in such poor shape? Conservative republicans are so dumb, they think the us isn’t in as bad of shape as europe. Well dum dums the us has the largest debt load in the world and what do the gop/teabaggers/jesusfreaks think should be done? Punish the poor and reward the rich, just like je$uS would do. Ameika is a dying empire and all your god,guts and guns ain’t going 2 turn it around.

Actually, we are already a slave to the banks, but in time our master will start whipping us, the same way Greece is getting whipped.

mondobeyondo

Yes, it is. And yes, we are.
And yes, it will.

But when it happens in America, it will be far bloodier than Greece, or Portugal. Our population is armed to the teeth. People already kill each other in the inner cities over tennis shoes. Imagine when they’re fighting over things that really matter. That is what I fear the most.

William

Hello Michael,

Do you believe that the crash is certain? Perhaps they’ll just print much more money and avoid a crash by creating hyperinflation (much devastating nonetheless).

Michael

William:

Hyperinflation would be an economic collapse as well. A “crash” does not have to be deflationary.

And yes, unfortunately I do believe that a crash is certain. It is just a matter of time.

Michael

Tim

Even Tim Geithner is ratcheting up the rhetoric. You know it’s bad when stooges like him begin acquiescing about our dire fiscal situation.

“You have a whole bunch of nations that have accumulated unsustainable debts and that cannot print their own currencies.”

No worries—that is what the United States and Federal Reserve are for. They will print more fiat paper for our socialist friends in Europe—afterall, we want to become more like them, right? Anyway, there is no need to fear, Bennie and the Inkjets are here and they will take from you (via debasing the currency) to help out our free spending socialist friends.

Bottom line: everyone just needs to stop worrying so much—as long as we have trees and ink we can debase our currency and screw over our own population to help out our free spending (elite) friends in Europe.

There is nothing to worry about people, nothing at all!

007

The EU can print it’s own fiat currency. It is against the law of the EU charter. However, I doubt that will stop these crooks from printing money when they have to. I am sure we will print some for them too.

Kevin

For decades many looked at Europe as a model for living. Multiple weeks of vacation guaranteed, medical care covered, generous pensions at an early age; life is good. Then came globalism and what was affordable is no longer so.

Europe spent money on “entitlements” while the USA spent on weapons. In the end “Free Trade” with slave labor nations are curtailing both.

Our homeowners insurance rates are going up because of globalism.

Sliced Alone

Italy needing a bailout would mean another nation unable to contribute to the bailout pot. It is like a snake eating its own tail.

claudio

Hi, I’m Italian and living in Italy and this mass speculative attack is coming from Hedge funds overseas; let’s analyse the matter: Italy has a debt of 120% of its gdp but nobody knows that half of this debt is in Italian hands (savers, families, banks and insurance companies); Italy has the 3rd largest stock of gold in the world after U.S. and Germany; Italians are less exposed to private debt compared to British, Americans, Germans and French families….they barely have the 30% of debts out of 100 of income; wealth distribution is far better than other countries putting Italian families amongst the top of financial assets per-capita; the cons of Italy are: an ageing population, a government led by a “clown” billionaire full of conflict of interests and a tiny economic growth; I sense this speculative attack not just to Italy but to the E.U. as a whole

patriot Alice

It was more fun when everyone was complaining about Greece….Va fa a Napoli.

Infact the real matter lays on which currency will default first, the US dollar or the Euro.
Nonetheless, the Euro will not collapse, it will only be applied to the core countries of the EU, that is Germany, France, Benelux, Austria and Finland. The periphery will have to go back to new national currencies, devalue and adopt the double circulation standard which is very well alive in all eastern Europe.
For examples, in Montenegro, Albania or Bulgaria you’d buy groceries with euros, it’s accepted just like local currencies.
Double standard circulation has always worked and it does not imply dismembering the Union.
Mr. M

LARRY Kotlikoff of Boston University has another Bloomberg column on the state of the US national debt in which he declares that

Our country is bankrupt. It’s not bankrupt in 30 years or five years. It’s bankrupt today.
His calculation is that the Federal debt is not $9 trillion as the (net) figure officially states but $202 trillion. How does he arrive at that number?

In a sense, this is a process rather like the one used to derive the theoretical value of a company, involving the discounting of cashflows to a present value. Professor Kotlikoff takes the process rather further than most, tracking the revenues and expenditures all the way out to 2085 and then calculating a “terminal value” for the post-2085 numbers. The revenues and expenditures are increased at a 2% real rate, to allow for GDP growth and then the debt numbers are discounted at a 3% real rate.

wiwo

“A financial crash in Europe would be felt in every nation on earth and it would be absolutely devastating. Let’s hope that we still have some more time before it happens.”

This is the only paragraph of your magnificent article I don´t agree with you. I would love that the crash happens as fast as possible so that the entire system blows up. We humans are so scared of changes and even more of big changes, that´s why we have to learn the lesson the worst way…
And be quiet, “God” won´t help us

mondobeyondo

Ummm… God will be the ONLY thing that will help us.

Maybe a European financial crash won’t affect everyone immediately. But just wait till those dominoes start falling. China, India, Japan, Australia, the United States, Mozambique, Kenya. The global banking system is highly interconnected.

Something astounding is going on and the elders in the Arctic Circle are telling us that even the position of the earth relative to the sun and stars has changed. NASA certainly is saying nothing about this but these elders are anything but idiots about their domain in the far north.

It serves us to listen to these natives who live close to the earth, sun, moon and stars.

Many dramatic events are coming about and the day in January when the sun came up two days early in Greenland we should have taken more notice.

World scientists could not come up with a reasonable explanation so none was provided but they did reject the idea that the earth’s orbit changed in any way.

Since then we’ve seen a staggering number of signs indicating major changes are unfolding.

Something has provoked a profound alteration to conditions on our planet driving the atmosphere and earth into convulsion. The weather continues to be beyond worst-case-scenario expectations of weathermen everywhere.

Epic floods, massive wildfires, drought and the deadliest tornado season in 60 years are ravaging the United States, with scientists warning that even more extreme weather is on the way. From all points on the compass come reports of natural disasters. Life is getting extremely uncomfortable for earth’s populations as record heat, cold, rain and drought conditions are recorded.

TinHao

It isn’t Italy getting a bailout, its bond and derivative traders..again.

whyworry

The reason most of us visit the economic collapse web site is because we get a lot more info about the state of the world economy then we get from our leaders and the main stream news.
We must continue to educate ourselves everyday. That is why I read this web site faithfully. At times I know I feel like everyone else does from time to time. We feel helpless, what can we do about the trouble coming our way.
We must remember however, that by reading these articles and commenting we are exchanging valuable information with each other and we must never lose that. Encourage everyone you know to visit this website and comment. The sirvival of web sites like this is our life raft.
Economic hell awaits all of us and no one is immune, we are all in debt to the system, one way or another. Either a home mortgage, student loan, car loan, credit card loan, back taxes. Each of us is in some kind of debt to the system and when it falls apart we ate going to need each other.

Michael

Hello whyworry!

I very much appreciate those that visit this site on a regular basis. It would get really lonely here all by myself.

Not everyone has hours to read and research and write like I do, but people can help out by putting links to these articles in emails to friends, on Facebook or on Twitter. The more people that spread these articles around the more good that they will do.

Michael

Dr. Nancy

I urge all to begin storing food just as I began to do several months ago.

The other thing I’m doing to prepare for the future is following what I’ve learned on this site put together by a millionaire.

The American taxpayer has such deep pockets they can bail out the Eurozone for the banksters.

patriot Alice

The same solutions will continue til the end of time: Bailouts, Printing, debt, etc… So don’t worry, be happy…

Steven

To quote some graffiti in the movie 28 days later.

“The end is really F*&#ing nigh!”

William

Michael, do you have any comment on Brazil?

To me it seems the new USA in terms of debt disaster, the country is “growing” but so is their public debt, with one of the highest interest rates in the world! Inflation and unemployment are starting to show. The federal government is imposing “economic measures” to counter inflation.

Many consider Brazil, as well as the other members of BRICS, the future of the economy. Any thoughts?

Michael

William:

From what I understand interest rates on consumer debt are a big issue right now in Brazil. A lot of people in the middle class in Brazil are really struggling with debt repayments.

I also think that Brazil is going to really struggle when the next wave of the economic collapse strikes because they are so dependent on exports.

What do you think?

Michael

William

Well I think that right now Brazil is not as bad as Europe, but Brazil is so poor, lots of “favelas”, extremely precarious infrastructure, crime, etc. Imagine what will happen when some financial crisis hit? If Europe that was rich and its citizens educated is facing this meltdown imagine poor countries.

The government uses suicidal financing, it’s called carry trade. The big international banks take a loan at the FED, for example, at 0.25% interest rate, convert it to real, Brazil’s currency, and buy goverment bonds which pay 12.25%/year. How in the world are they going to pay it back in our current debt-money based system?

Recession-depression

Michael if i may ask,and see if i understand all this economic talk correctly?

When a country’s Central bank starts printing new money and start loaning out money to the businesses and people in countries, like (Brazil, United States, UK, examples) then the people of those countries borrow on the cheap interest rates to buy homes, cars, school, fix up things, vacations and so on, that in turn stimulates that countries economy.
And everyone is happy!!!

Then when that country starts to overheat, too much economic activity, then the central banks that loaned this cheap debt, cut supply of cash and raise the interest rates on previous loans and everyone that took out these loans feels the pain and the economy slows down, unemployment goes up and is called a recession.
Do i have all this right?

What does the central bank of the United States plan on doing to revive our economy?

Since we have to much debt as a nation, they really can’t introduce more loans? (or could they?)
I guess they could lower interest rates, but then who would invest more money in our economy?

What do we do? are there any answers?

Michael

The Federal Reserve is running out of options. Interest rates are already as low as they can go.

Sadly, it sounds like they might try to do a QE3.

Michael

HerrLT

William,

Having lived in Brasil, wed a Brasilada, and getting my permanent visa there next week I have some experience with both their economy and their culture. There is a saying among the people that, “Brasil is the country of the future – and always will be.” In terms of importance to the American export industry,Brasil has very high tariffs – a V6 Camaro there for example costs over $70 grand. I won’t go into detail, but I do feel the country will be able to better weather the storm than the US will. When I was there before the QE and crash, $1 got me more than R$2 – almost R$3. Now the exchange rate is R$1.44 to $1 – near parity. This is damaging to the cheap textile and export industry there but also shows just how far our reserve currency has fallen.

In other news I was scrounging around the attic and I found a silver eagle from 2004 that had been a gift to me… I’m going to cash in my buillion when I move abroad for good. An ounce of gold now is worth almost R$2500 last time I checked

HerrLT

Michael: the headlines today (after your posts) are saying the same thing, and that is Italy will be next. That’s why I come here to get the facts (and a few other reputable sites). Great work! I hope your family appreciates what you are doing (my wife is of the opinion it won’t happen, but that’s why I talk pop culture with her and econ with others.)!

Michael

LOL

I am thankful that I have a wife that does happen to agree with me about these things. But there are quite a few relatives on both sides of our family that think everything is going to be just fine.

Michael

Patriot One

As long as Italy stays afloat till next Sunday when my children and grand children come home, I’ll be ok.

What everyone must start to realize is all of Europe has a deficit. So what you have is one insolvent country bailing out another insolvent country.

How everyone can’t see the global bank/government Ponzi scheme is beyond me.

bobbobbobbob

u wish u could live in italy they have medical and u die in the street

007

We will see how great Italy is once the bond markets want 30% To lend you money.

mondobeyondo

The Eurozone can’t afford to bail out Italy. Not after bailing out Ireland, Portugal and Greece as well. Then again, they really can’t afford NOT to bail out Italy. It is one of the major economies in Europe. Let’s just hope that in the end, it won’t be arrividerci for the Euro.

And you thought the U.S. had problems…

(well we do, actually. When – not if – things collapse stateside, it will be the Mother of All Financial Calamities.)

I’M MOVING TO THE NEW SOUTH CALIFORNIA WITH MY CHEVY VOLT AND USE THE MERCURY LIGHT BULBS GETTING VOTED ON AT 420!!!TODAY!!OH THE PROMISE LAND!!

Shandooga

” Let’s hope that we still have some more time before it happens.”?

Time for what, exactly? Will it be lesser if it’s later? More likely, it will be worse.

jeff198524

Socialism has nothing to do why Europe is failing. It’s due to the housing bubble and other nations that followed dumbass America over the edge.

Mr Jason

I can not believe how many people keep saying that things are bad in this or that country because “the country has turned away from Christian religion”. What a crock of sh*t!

First of all, some idiot said Italy was in dire straits because they turned away from the Catholic Christian religion, yet idiots like the commenter in question also say in the same breath that Catholics are not real Christians, or that the pope is the anti-christ!

In Germany, the Nazis were all led by the belief that they were true Christians (their belt buckles all said “Gott mit uns”, which means God is with us. Hitler was a strong Christian).

The Oklahoma bombings were committed by a “true Christian”. The “true Christians” massacred millions of American Indians.

There are large amounts of “true Christians” that believe in prosperity prayers, where people will be financially rewarded by God because they prayed hard enough or were good enough Christians.

This is all a load of crap. America is going down the tubes because it is a fascist country that is ruled by the elite moneyholders. The definition of fascism is the union of government and business – exactly America. America is not a democracy – it is a representative republic, that has been taken over by a business/military-industrial complex.

We no longer produce anything in America except wars. We spend trillions on wars and the military, and when we run out of money, the first thing we do is cut education and social programs? What sort of madness is this? Just last month, everyone, including Obama, agreed that we wouldn’t touch military spending (laughingly called “defense” spending, when in actuality it is all offensive).

For these many reasons, I left America. I loved what it once was, but hate what it has become. I feel sorry for those I have left behind, but I can sit where I am now, and watch as it flushes itself down the toilet.

Hell, you’re lucky you were able to get out!! I cant afford an airplane ticket to Indonesia! But, well, every other country on the earth will probably be JUST as screwed as the USA and Europe will be when TSHTF.

So, might as well stay in the USA and tough it out!!

Lucio

THE SPREADING IN USA OF BAD NEWS ABOUT ITALY, GREECE AND EUROPE, HAS JUST ONE PURPOSE: TO DISTRACT PUBLIC OPINION SO TO WEAKEN THE EURO, AND INDIRECTLY STENGHTEN THE DOLLAR, AND SO LET EUROPE PAY FOR THE ENORMOUS AMERICAN DEBT, CUMULATED WITH THE LAST MAD WARS.