Magic gone in Ohio?

posted at 1:21 pm on October 25, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

In 2008, Barack Obama campaigned like a rock star, especially in places hard hit by the economy, like Ohio — which Obama won by five points in the election, while enjoying a D+8 turnout. Four years later, the rock-star vibe has utterly faded, and the campaign has turned into a grind for Team Obama as they dig up every vote they can find to try to hold off a resurgent Mitt Romney in the Buckeye State. Byron York describes it as “the magic is gone”:

Messina is particularly focused on what are called low-propensity or sporadic voters — that is, voters who can’t be relied on to show up at the polls regularly, who might or might not make it to vote on Election Day. If Obama can bank their votes early, he won’t have to worry about them on November 6. “Sporadic voters matter,” Messina explained. “It can’t just be about getting your traditional Democrats to vote early. If that were the case, then we’d be wasting our time and money. This is about increasing the overall share of people who may be drop-off voters…”

So far, there are indications the Obama/Messina plan is making progress. In the latest Rasmussen poll, released Wednesday, which showed the race in Ohio locked in a 48-48 tie, Obama led among early voters by ten percentage points. The problem is, that’s less of a lead than Obama had among early voters in 2008. So now, the president is frantically pursuing all those sporadic voters out there, begging them to cast a ballot early.

That’s the essence of the Obama re-election effort less than two weeks from Election Day. Team Obama knows the campaign doesn’t have the magic it had in 2008. Crowds are enthusiastic, but not over-the-top enthusiastic. Obama’s strategy is to make up the excitement gap by just grinding it out, doing the organizational work of getting the people most likely to support the president — blacks, Latinos, women, the young — to vote early. By doing so, he hopes to build up a sufficient bank of votes to prevail over Romney on November 6. It’s the no-magic campaign.

But it’s not all magic, as York reminds us. Obama may have done poorly in the debates, and step on his message in extemporaneous conversations, but on the stump Obama is formidable:

One fact that seems sometimes lost in the obsession with early voting and the ground game is that Obama remains a very, very good campaigner. Certainly at Triangle Park he delivered what could only be called an extraordinarily polished performance. In recent days the Romney campaign has characterized the president’s stump speeches as “increasingly desperate.” Perhaps that’s true, but the fact is, Obama is still an impressively effective campaigner when it comes to delivering speeches at old-fashioned political rallies. Comparing Romney and Obama on the stump is no contest. Even without the messianic promise of his 2008 campaign, the president is still a far, far better performer.

Yesterday, Time Magazine released a poll in Ohio showing Obama up by 5, 49/44, but the sample was D+9, with lower Republican turnout than in 2008. No one took it seriously, including Chuck Todd — and as he reports, neither of the campaigns did either:

Let’s take a look at a poll that went largely unremarked yesterday. Survey USA polled 609 likely and actual voters (those who have already cast ballots) in Ohio and found the race in a virtual tie, 47/44 for Obama, and found the same in the Senate race, with Republican challenger Josh Mandel just one point behind Sherrod Brown, 42/43. The sample is also a little suspect at D+7 (39/32/25), but the internals are interesting in the presidential race:

Romney leads among independents by 8. In 2008, Obama won them by 8 — a 16-point flip in the gap. Furthermore, Obama only gets to 39% in this demo. Late breaking deciders usually go for the challenger, especially in poor economic conditions, which means Romney has a pretty good chance of getting a double-digit advantage among independents.

Obama beats Romney 2-1 among 18-34YOs (58/29), but Romney wins two of the three other demos and ties among 50-64YOs at 46%. Again, late deciders will probably break toward Romney, but the younger voters seem to be somewhat oversampled here too, although the exit polling doesn’t exactly line up with Survey USA’s categories. Voters 44 and under accounted for 41% of the Ohio vote in 2008, but voters 49 and below account for 49% of Survey USA’s respondents.

It’s a razor-close race in Ohio, but if Romney has knocked six points off of Obama’s 2008 gender gap and turned an eight-point deficit among independents into an eight-point advantage in a cycle where Democratic enthusiasm won’t come close to matching 2008, I have to think that the magic has already shifted to Romney.

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

“What is true is that trust is a very important part of the election,” Pfeiffer, who said he had not yet seen the article, told reporters during Obama’s campaign swing through Florida, Virginia and Ohio Thursday. “The president is someone who says what he means and does what he says and Gov. Romney’s answers in the debates on domestic issues and foreign policy raise real questions about that.”

In a forthcoming article in Rolling Stone, Obama reportedly told author Douglas Brinkley that children can instinctively tell that his opponent is “a bullshitter.” Politico published an excerpt Thursday morning.

Since Monday’s presidential debate, Obama has made an effort to raise questions about Romney’s integrity. Last week he coined the word “Romnesia” to describe what he claims to be Romney’s tendency to shift and moderate his positions closer to the election.

Listeners should not be “distracted by the word,” but to “focus on the issue,” Pfeiffer added. “The president addressed that issue in his stump speech today and he’s done it throughout this trip.”

You can take this to the bank from somebody who was a genuine Rock Star back in the 80′s. Obama was never anything even close to being a Rock Star, and quite frankly I find the associative comparison to be both vulgar and insulting.

I live in OH and it’s almost impossible to not spot romney sign lately. As someone at National Review was showing Ohio always breaks for the Rs better than the national average by a 2-3 points. i’m not worried and the wife and I already voted.

The polls will be completely discredited Ohio will go to Romney easily and some in the the LSM will cry fraud and wail for the courts to intercede and Obama to declare the election invalid.

Quote me on this.

Posted to cut and paste on Nov 7th as an I told ya so!

Skwor on October 25, 2012 at 1:30 PM

That’s pretty much what I said in one of the headline threads today. They are doing this on purpose so that when Obama loses Ohio they will claim fraud because supposedly Obama was so far ahead in the polls that there was no possible way Romney could win.

The thing that amazes me most is that no single group has suffered under Obama more than young people, yet by 2:1 they still want to vote for him. People graduate college and cannot find a job and still they vote for him.

It is bizarre that being cool trumps all else. Being cool masks utter incompetence.

The polls will be completely discredited Ohio will go to Romney easily and some in the the LSM will cry fraud and wail for the courts to intercede and Obama to declare the election invalid.

Quote me on this.

Posted to cut and paste on Nov 7th as an I told ya so!

Skwor on October 25, 2012 at 1:30 PM

+1

Obama is getting creamed by the independents and, while there are a lot of Democrats in this state, there aren’t that many. This isn’t New York or Massachusetts. Ohio will go to Romney. Close, but probably not as close as these polls make it seem.

Not that it means a whole lot, but last week I was in Marietta, OH. I had to drive from NC (Through TN, KY, VA, WVA then just into OH). All the way through my trip (not taking an interstate until Charleston, WVA) I saw Romney signs after Romney signs. Billboards in WVA talking about Obama’s war on coal, and Obama’s No job zone. While I was in Marietta, OH, I saw one Obama sticker, but there must have been at least 100+ Romney yard signs (small signs, and large signs both).

I know one small town doesn’t represent the entire state, but my entire trip up there I saw this same thing through all the states.

Ohio has me scared if I just look at the Polls, but when I was actually there in this one town it was unbelievable how many Romney supporters are there. I am excited!

The polls will be completely discredited Ohio will go to Romney easily and some in the the LSM will cry fraud and wail for the courts to intercede and Obama to declare the election invalid.
Quote me on this.
Posted to cut and paste on Nov 7th as an I told ya so!
Skwor on October 25, 2012 at 1:30 PM

They have to keep the polls w/in the margin of error in order to cover the 3-5% fraud they will commit to steal it! We’ll see…

I am waiting to relish the schadenfreude of the Fifth Column Treasonous Media’s upcoming repeat of “Dewey Win’s”. With any luck at all, the entire talking head set on MSLSD will play Russian Roulette with a fully loaded Colt 1911…

I’m here in Ohio at ground zero. I don’t think Obama has a chance here. The absentee numbers are so different than in 08. Also, the feel around here is much different. I know a lot of folks who gave Obama the benefit of the doubt last time and they’re sure not doing that again. Also, cuyahoga county (Cleveland) has lost a lot of voters since 08-they’re down over 200000 registered voters. If Obama is down by 8% with indies he will lose Ohio by at least 3%, there is no way he will have enough base voters to make up that deficit with indies.

Something weird is going on in Ohio. How can every other battleground show clear consistent movement towards Romney but Ohio remains stuck at 1-2 points Obama? I’m encouraged the movement is going Romney’s way but it is SOOOO slow. Holding out hope that Rasmussen has this race right. A tied race will result in a Romney win as he scoops up the undecideds on Nov 6.

Actually, the news on Gallup is worse than just the outlier sample falling off. That would have caused an immediate bump for Obama. But this has been a point or two each day, Romney just bleeding support and Obama consistently gaining.

Went from 52-45 to 50-47.

Tomorrow will be fun since Obama will be gaining on Rasmussen, according to Ras himself!

gumbyandpokey on October 24, 2012 at 5:31 PM

I thought Gallup would move in one big swoop, but it took a few more days, moved gradually, and the Obama surge isn’t done yet. Since he’s beaten Romney in 3 straight days of sampling, he will go ahead and stay ahead until at least the end of next week and probably until election day.

I live in OH and it’s almost impossible to not spot romney sign lately. As someone at National Review was showing Ohio always breaks for the Rs better than the national average by a 2-3 points. i’m not worried and the wife and I already voted.

gsherin on October 25, 2012 at 1:30 PM

Same here. I have to be in upstate New York on Election Day and my wife is working at the polls, so we already got our votes in. I agree that OH is going to Romney.

Obama did not have a D+8 turnout in Ohio in 2008. The exit poll that found that overestimated Obama’s victory by several points, and therefore its a mathematical certainty that said poll over polled democrats. When you adjust the poll figures to reflect actual results, D+8 turns into D+5.

Most pollsters however, are polling at D+6 to in some cases D+11, and its still averaging out to be a horse race. If they were ALL polling at D+5, Romney would be averaging a narrow victory in the state. If they were going for something more realistic still, like D+3, Romney would be winning by anywhere from 3-5pts.

My worry is that Obama is planning a Sampson and will flood Ohio with absentee ballots on election day if needed and go to court on it thinking he’s got a Coleman in the contest, but in any case, looking to forever taint the election system if he does indeed lose.

Remember the shocked look on their faces at CNN and MSNBC during the Walker recall when they were saying, “It’s gonna be a LOOOOONG night in a CLOOOOOSE race,” then, “this just in, Walker wins.”

It was the greatest WTF look in television history.

This election will be the same.

mitchellvii on October 25, 2012 at 1:42 PM

Yep. It would be especially sweet if Pennsylvania got called early for Romney. In fact, if Pennsylvania takes a long time to be called, there will be a wide-spread panic on their faces and in their voices.

The thing that amazes me most is that no single group has suffered under Obama more than young people, yet by 2:1 they still want to vote for him. People graduate college and cannot find a job and still they vote for him.

It is bizarre that being cool trumps all else. Being cool masks utter incompetence.

mitchellvii

Because they have been brainwaqshed into believing it’s all the GOP’s fault. Amazing they can teach these kids what to think, but not how to think. Priorities…

I should add that the early votes are not counted until Election Day either. A friend of mine in Warren County works for the Board of Elections and says the early votes get put through the machines first.

You can take this to the bank from somebody who was a genuine Rock Star back in the 80′s. Obama was never anything even close to being a Rock Star, and quite frankly I find the associative comparison to be both vulgar and insulting.

Ohio seems more red to me than purplish blue on talking with my friends and neighbors in the Buckeye State. Everyone has to put gas in their car, buy groceries, heat their homes. Four years is a long time to keep blaming someone else for your failures.

That SurveyUSA poll asked respondents who they voted for in 2008. They responded:
51% Obama
40% McCain

For an 11% gap. The actual gap in 2008 was 4.5%. Thus, they significantly oversampled Obama voters.

Obama did not have a D+8 turnout in Ohio in 2008. The exit poll that found that overestimated Obama’s victory by several points, and therefore its a mathematical certainty that said poll over polled democrats. When you adjust the poll figures to reflect actual results, D+8 turns into D+5.

WolvenOne on October 25, 2012 at 1:43 PM

Excellent point. Too many people take CNN’s website as gospel truth in these regards.

The race for Ohio is slowly tightening, but Mitt Romney does not hold a lead in a single poll in the current Real Clear Politics average (he is tied in two). Two polls from Time and CBS/Quinnipiac have grabbed headlines by showing Obama a five-point lead in each. Romney is chipping away at Obama’s poll lead, but the Democratic advantage in party-ID has increased across these polls. When looking at the polls in Ohio, it is becoming entirely possible that Mitt Romney should be able to win Ohio without ever showing a consistent lead in the polls, or any lead at all.

In the past week Romney has trimmed four-tenths of a point off of his deficit in the RCP average, going from 2.5 to 2.1, but at the same time, the average party-ID advantage for Democrats in these polls has risen from 5.5 to 6.5. A big reason for the increase in Democrats’ share in the polls is due to early voting. If a pollster calls someone who says they voted already, they are automatically passed through the likely-voter screen since they have, after all, voted. The problem with this can be best summed up by Gregory House: “Everybody lies.”

Pollsters can only work with what their respondents tell them, and this is the reason that likely-voter screens can be so tricky, though important, in polling. The preferable response is that you are going to vote or, in the case of Ohio, that you’ve already voted. Many respondents will say they are going to vote (or have voted) when in fact they may not end up doing it (this effect is known as social-desirability bias). For this reason, some likely-voter screens ask about previous elections and general political enthusiasm to gauge the actual likelihood that a voter will end up in the booth on Election Day. But that is where early voting throws the screen out the window — if a voter says they voted, there is nothing a pollster can do to but assume that it’s true.

Enter Ohio, where the current estimates from compiling early in-person and absentee voting shows early turnout to be about 15 percent of voters. But responses in the current polls claim that 23 percent of registered voters have already voted. That means that polls are overstating early voting by eight percentage points on average. This could be in part because some voters have requested an absentee ballot and report that as voting, some have mailed in ballots that haven’t been counted as received yet, but some voters are also just flat out saying they voted when they haven’t. It’s impossible to know the exact reason, but it’s clear that more are claiming to vote than really have.

In the polls’ early-voting results, Obama leads on average by 20 points. There are indications that the GOP has shrunk the Democratic advantage in this category significantly from 2008, but it is unclear how much. Either way, Obama’s early-voting advantage gives him a lead that Romney is only scraping away at with his Election Day voter lead. But if pollsters are finding more respondents who are claiming to have already voted than what the records show, some of this early-voter advantage is illusory.

This is why it is increasingly difficult for Romney to show an lead in the Ohio polls. But even with Obama currently enjoying a 2.1 point lead, Romney is still in great shape to win Ohio on Election Day. Here are some of the reasons for the optimism coming from Boston these days:

Romney’s strength with independents keeps growing:

Last week when Obama led the Real Clear Politics average by 2.5 points, Romney led among independents by an average of 8.7 points. Romney has since increased that lead with independents to 12.3 points, which is why he’s been able to cut Obama’s overall lead even as the polls have leaned more Democratic. In 2008 Obama beat McCain with independents by eight points. It would be almost impossible for Obama to win Ohio while suffering a 20-point swing among independents.

The polls give Democrats a better turnout advantage than they had in 2008:

As I explained in my last Ohio post, in 2008 Democrats beat Republicans in turnout by five points. The current polls show an average of D+6.6. A D+5 turnout in 2008 gave Obama a 4.5-point victory, while he is currently leading by only 2.1 points on an even greater D+6.6 turnout. Again, we know it should be very difficult for Democrats to match their 2008 turnout, let alone increase it.

History suggests late deciders will break against the incumbent:

This is a rule that always receives some skepticism, but it’s very likely to benefit Romney at least some on Election Day. In 2004, late deciders broke against George W. Bush heavily, even though he was a wartime president. John Kerry beat Bush by 25 points among voters who decided in the last month, 28 points among voters that decided in the three days prior to Election Day, and 22 points among day-of deciders. Those voters were 20 percent of the Ohio electorate; while this year there are expected to be fewer late deciders, Obama cannot afford to lose among by those margins and still win.

In Ohio, Republicans tend to outperform their share of the national vote:

In the last nine elections, the GOP has outperformed in Ohio. With Romney currently running just ahead of Obama nationally, it seems much more likely that Obama’s lead in Ohio has more to do with the higher party-ID advantage than a dramatic shift in Ohio from the past nine elections.

Strength with crossover voters in Ohio:

In addition to Romney’s strength with independents, in the past two elections the GOP candidate has won over more Democrat votes than he’s lost Republican ones. Obama’s Ohio win in 2008 was based entirely on his strength with independents and the wave turnout, both of which are highly unlikely to be repeated in 2012. If Romney wins with independents by anywhere near the current average he has and takes more crossover voters than Obama does, Obama would need to exceed 2008 turnout greatly to win.

So, with less than two weeks until Election Day we will all know the results soon enough, but as more Ohio polls come in, it is important to remember that the picture for Romney in Ohio is better than many pundits would have us believe. It only takes a quick look at Romney’s rallies to remind us it’s not 2008 anymore, as Republicans have reclaimed the enthusiasm advantage that led to such sweeping 2008 victories for Democrats. That GOP enthusiasm has become contagious since the debates, and it is exactly what has Team Obama so afraid these days. All they have left to hang their hopes on is a slim lead in the polls, and even that might not be enough on Election Day.