ferebones... there is always a threat of losing when one tries to woo the American electorate. I live in Missouri and voters here regularly vote against their own best interest based on social issue manipulation from the right. But right now the GOP seems more interested in their identity crisis than launching a serious campaign for the White House. That will likely shift by the convention, but by then they may have dragged the nominee too far to the right to sell him as a moderate.

I'm feeling that it will be close...how close depends on all the unknowns.