The missing link: Microsoft Surface

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In the ’90s, when WIMP ruled the world, Microsoft made some of the biggest-selling mice and keyboards on the market. In the ’00s, as video game consoles threatened to invade even the most non-nerdy households, Microsoft made the Xbox and Kinect and proceeded to slice out a sizable share of the market. And now, as Apple and Google and Samsung drag us kicking and screaming into a post-PC world, Microsoft will make tablets.

Yesterday, Microsoft has unveiled two Surface tablets: a thin-and-light (9.3mm, 676g) ARM device with a 10.6-inch 1366×768 display running Windows RT; and a chunkier (13.5mm, 903g) Intel x86 Windows 8 Pro version with a 1920×1080 10.6-inch display. Both devices have USB ports, MicroSD slots, 2×2 MIMO antennae, and an output for a second display (mini HDMI on ARM, Mini DisplayPort on x86). The unique selling point for both tablets is a built-in kickstand and a magnetically-attached screen cover that folds out to become a keyboard. Microsoft has stated that the x86 Surface will have performance that “rivals the best ultrabooks,” but hasn’t yet announced the exact CPU that will be used (or the battery life).

The ARM Surface will go on sale this fall, alongside the release of Windows 8. The x86 version will appear three months later — we’re not sure why. Microsoft could be waiting for some special hardware from Intel, or it might have to honor some non-compete contracts with its OEMs… who can’t be very happy with the Surface. Pricing is unknown, but we’d expect the ARM Surface to be priced around the iPad ($500), and the x86 Surface to cost considerably more ($700+).

Will the Surface tablets succeed? Pragmatically, I don’t think that Microsoft can possibly compete with Apple on hardware design, and, perhaps more importantly, that it lacks Apple’s extensive experience when it comes to melding software and hardware into one seamless, feel-good, easy-to-use package.

My gut feels slightly more optimistic, though. While it’s patently clear by this point that Microsoft has its back up against the wall — I too would be a little nervous if my 20-year stranglehold on personal computing was slipping away — I don’t think we should perceive Surface as an act of desperation. Microsoft might not have the same preternatural foresight and attention to detail as the artists in Cupertino, but it obviously still has its finger on the pulse. Last year, Microsoft’s Entertainment and Devices division posted a profit of $1.3 billion, mostly on the back of the Xbox 360 and Kinect sensor — both Microsoft-made products.

In much the same way that the Xbox came at just the right time to capture the shift towards console gaming and on-demand entertainment, the Surface tablets could be exactly what Microsoft needs to fend off the rapid shift from stationary desktop computing to ubiquitous mobile computing.

From the get-go, and despite Redmond’s very noisy protestations to the contrary, Windows 8 is obviously a touch-first operating system. This kind of made sense; with tablets and smartphones very quickly taking over the world, Microsoft was compelled to quickly bolster its mobile presence. In the process, though, Microsoft was effectively screwing over its installed base of 1 billion non-touch Windows PCs. Surface is the missing link. The strategy is now perfectly clear: If you want to experience Windows 8 properly, you have to buy a Microsoft tablet.

Of course Microsoft will continue to support you if you stick with Windows 7, or upgrade to Windows 8, or grab an OEM Windows 8 device, but moving forward Microsoft is now officially a provider of personal computers. This is a seismic shift of epic proportions. Making keyboards or selling 70 million Xboxes (over 7 years!) is one thing, but shouldering your way into the PC market is something else entirely. In the last 18 months alone, Apple and the Windows OEMs have sold around 700 million desktops, laptops, and iPads. If Microsoft can secure 10 or 20% of the PC market, it stands to make billions of dollars.

It now becomes a question of whether the Surface tablets can deliver on expectations and go on to be a commercial success, or not. Will it blow up like Kinect and the Xbox, or flop like Zune? With Microsoft’s colossal clout in the consumer and enterprise PC markets, my instinct is that the Surface will do well. Over the last few years, Microsoft has been concentrating its efforts around Windows, Xbox, Windows Phone, and the cloud. Surface should sit perfectly in the middle, interfacing with all of Microsoft’s products — a lot like the smooth interplay between Apple’s various products and services. If you have an Xbox, Surface will make an excellent SmartGlass second display. If you have a Windows 8 machine at home or work, Surface will make the ideal cloud-synced companion for when you’re on the move. If you’re simply looking for a new computer, Surface ticks just about every box and then some.

Finally — and this is the main reason that Microsoft’s tablet has such a strong chance of success — it’s important to bear in mind that the Surface isn’t competing directly with the iPad. Whenever a new tablet appears, it’s customary to compare and contrast it with the iPad, and then to pronounce the iPad’s continued reigning supremacy over the lackluster debutant and the rest of the tablet market. The Surface, with a kickstand and keyboard and Windows 8, is really nothing like the iPad. What we have here is a single device that can replace corporate desktops, consumer laptops, and tablets. Underpinned by Windows 8 and underwritten by Microsoft, it will be a huge hit in the enterprise market. As a stylish, high-powered, tablet-cum-laptop transformer, I wouldn’t be surprised if consumers choose Surface over an ultrabook.

Where Apple is more than happy to sell you an iPad and a MacBook (and, in the process, become the most profitable company in the world), Surface is the embodiment of the flexible, generic approach that has resulted in Microsoft Windows being installed on 90% of the world’s computers. While I don’t think Surface and the jack-of-all-trades Windows 8 will prevent the continued success of the iPad, I do think it’s exactly what Microsoft needs to retain its dominion on the (post-) PC market, and make a few hundred billion dollars in the process.

Thank you, ExtremeTech, for the publishing the first fair and accurate Surface story I’ve read all day.

“it’s important to bear in mind that the Surface
isn’t competing directly with the iPad. Whenever a new tablet appears,
it’s customary to compare and contrast it with the iPad, and then to
pronounce the iPad’s continued reigning supremacy over the lackluster
debutant and the rest of the tablet market. The Surface, with a
kickstand and keyboard and Windows 8, is really nothing like the iPad.”

I’ve been waiting to read this on a tech news site all day. I watched the MS press release and THIS is the feeling that I got from it. Everyone else seems to be comparing it to iOS and Android tablets and I feel that does the Surface a great diservice.

Rick Giampietro

Interesting take. I think my big complaint is the potential fragmentation of the Windows ecosystem, but I suppose that’s nothing new since MS has been hellbent on this dual OS approach for a while.

I personally would rather have a Macbook Air, which is what I mainly run… even with Windows in a VM it smokes. I don’t think people realize how incredible an all SSD machine like the Air is.

And this is coming from a MS developer… which brings me to another issue… why would I write software for just the ARM based Surface? The fragmentation issue is huge, just look at the videogame industry… no add-on device that splinters the market ever reaches dominance. Even the Kinect is struggling, mainly because it’s a subset of the full market (struggling in the sense of software being written for it exclusively).

The only way I see this really becoming a big hit for MS is for them to take the same Xbox approach and expect it to be a loss leader for 5-8 years (or longer – took the Xbox what? 12 years since xbox1 to reach profitability).

Does MS have the patience for another long war? What if Balmer gets the boot and MS reboots along with it?

Still this is a pretty good try… then again so was the Zune… being late to market is also another real killer… just look at Sony and what happened from ps2 to ps3.

KeyboardG

There is no writing just for the ARM based Surface. If you write a metro (winRT) app it runs on all version of Windows8. The only limitation is that legacy x86 software will not run on the ARM win8 devices.

Seamus OK

Zune was not a good try. It was a late to market copycat with no added value. And an ugly brown to boot.

This is quite intriguing. I would seriously consider the Surface for everyday mobile use. If this proves to be popular enough to support a broad ecosystem of 3rd party apps and accessories, I may even replace my iPad “3” with this in a few years.

97point6

I’m a total Mac guy, have always been. Of course I went into this with a bit of skepticism, but I have to say, I like what I see. At least the physical product they’ve unveiled. Of course, the juries still out on how Windows 8 will be. BTW, competition is good.

ScrittiPoliti

Using the Surface name for the tablet is a good idea.

Naming an operating system “Windows Runtime” is just plain stupid, as is making two different OSes for essentially the same devices. What is with Microsoft’s mania for bombing the marketplace with shitloads of different versions of OSes?

Enetheru

Just to clarify, Windows Runtime (winRT) isn’t an operating system, it’s a development API. It’s a component of Windows 8 that end users don’t deal with or have to know about, not a separate version of Windows 8.

Perhaps drivers and compilers need more bug fixing. Other than that working windows code should be fine (again provided that compilers don not create low level code problems and drivers are fine).

NicolaMantovani

if I remember correctly, on the b8 blog they explained how they had to build a whole hardware abstraction layer in order to standardize and work with different ARM processors. such low level code needs more work to be fully complete

Michael Garrett

If something doesn’t go wrong during a Microsoft presentation, I get depressed.

Manzoor E Elahi

I love how the only thing wrong you could find in the entire keynote was a hiccup on a pre-release hardware.

“What we have here is a single device that can
replace corporate desktops, consumer laptops, and tablets. Underpinned
by Windows 8 and underwritten by Microsoft, it will be a huge hit in the
enterprise market.”
Exactly. This is the carrot to Win 8’s stick beating on the old desktop/laptop user base. A great product to transition users from keyboard+mouse to gestures+touch.

I didn’t know Linux came out with a touch interface, so what’s it called. And does it resemble any other touch operating systems, or did they come up with something all new? And why would you want to change out an operating system when this hardware and software are made to work perfectly together. I’m sure they had quite a team working on making sure everything was as fast and seamless as possible.

Dan Stutzman

Starting with Ubuntu 11.10 LTS and then again in 12.03 LTS, Canonical replaced GNOME2 and GNOMEShell with GNOME3 and an interface called Unity. It blows but it’s designed from the ground up as a touch interface. In fact Canonical has a major project going called Ubuntu on Mobile. The other versions of Linux specifically those running a >3.x kernel all have support for Unity. Personally I’m sticking to 11.04 but that’s because the convertible tablet I run it on doesn’t run 12.03 very well.

The iPad for a lot of people is really just a trendy toy at the very least– and on the more serious side– it’s a $500+ e-Reader. The games are so-so in the eyes of true gamers– just eye-candy for bored people in the livingroom.

But if you have a True Tablet that has basic PC-like functionality (Excel, Word as well as Internet Explorer– now you’ve got a Device that will fill the needs of the average Non-Tech Non-Product Creative (As in Image editing Video editing etc) user who just wants casual games, Internet, and the ability print– it can be a winner.

The rest of us will continue to have and use the true PC workhorse, be it a Mac or Intel Box, but we are NOT the vast majority of people who are right now utilizing their smartphones as interactive devices right now.

And more evilly, this kind of device would be perfect to horn in on another Market Apple is trying to quietly corral: The next-gen School e-textbook. Except now, you blend the lite PC functions of Word and Excel report-writing with the ability to hold e-Textbooks and audio-visual lesson plans.

michael_121

Yeah, how an average Non-Tech Non-Product Creative user could possibly live without Internet Explorer?

BruceAb

This form factor looks really good.
If everything works as advertised, this could be a real winner, especially since Windows 8 can be used as a “normal” OS, not just a tablet/touch interface.
I’ve been trying out Windows 8 and overall, I really like it.
Switching between tablet and “normal” interface is easy, and the tablet interface IS usable with a mouse.
I don’t really understand all the moaning and groaning regarding Win8 on the desktop.
Maybe it just takes getting used to….

Marc Bebee

I think this is pure genius on Microsofts part and they have nothing to feel inferior for versus the iPad. They clearly took inspiration from the ASUS transformer/slider tablets but went some distance further and unlike ASUS can market the living heck out of it. I cannot help but think that this is precisely what consumers will want, particularly in the x86 version, a tablet that can do everything their desktop or laptop can do (except for perhaps erious gaming or “heavy duty” computing tasks). My hope is that they release a cheaper x86 version along with the “pro” version they are talking about. Price points are important and I hope Intel discounts heavily in order to try kill ARM in the lower end. For most users, they dont need uber levels of CPU/GPU power just sufficient levels.

My only concern is the confusion over what precisely the differences are between the ARM and x86 versions from a user’s point of view. Is the ARM version using in some way a crippled version of windows 8?

chojin999

Microsoft employees in full swing trying to make a fool of people in a hope to sell these flawed MetroUI driven unproductive expensive products.
Only those wanting to waste their money would pay the same or more than an iPad to get either a messed up Android tablet or a flawed by design MetroUI Windows tablet.

another_user

Unproductive expensive products? You MUST be talking about the ipad ’cause the surface ain’t out yet.

IraMinor

I think Microsoft is getting ready to copy Apple’s business plan. A few years from now there will be Microsoft branded products of every type being sold in Microsoft stores in every shopping mall. Microsoft will also buy a few hardware companies probably Dell and Nokia for starters.

Anonymous1a

To be honest, I am really dying for this. One of the main attractions of Apple is that it makes both the hardware and the software and both of these are like the tyres of a car; no matter how good one is, if the other is bad, you just can’t make the car move. I can use an i7 on Windows 95 or Windows 8 on a Pentium and the end result is always disaster! If Microsoft starts producing both of these, it will make incredible devices and have the advantage that only Apple has right now.

kmuzu

It’s a reverse laptop ..

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