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Re: The Bedrock Sporting Bet Thread

Mr Boring wrote:

There's not been a single mention of the word 'value' in this thread.

No real point in trying to discuss 'value' in my humble - far too subjective.

I fall into the camp of bigger stakes on odds-on bets where plenty of my mates prefer smaller stakes on huge odds. We've been over it and over it - neither side will agree to the others' definition of 'value'. And, to be honest, over the course of a day at the races and/or a football season or whatever, neither camp is better off than the other.

For what it's worth though 4/9 Man City to beat Cardiff is 'value' as far as I'm concerned...

Re: The Bedrock Sporting Bet Thread

Re: The Bedrock Sporting Bet Thread

smashdad wrote:

I fall into the camp of bigger stakes on odds-on bets where plenty of my mates prefer smaller stakes on huge odds.

Bookies try to offer bad value on every single bet they offer. But they really take the piss with longshots, first goalscorer and correct score markets. So in the long run you and your mates will all lose money but I'd wager your mates will have the bailiffs round sooner.

Re: The Bedrock Sporting Bet Thread

That guy on talksport the other day who was a bookie was funny saying you cant win, we gear it like that. You can only have a good day now and then but essentially my house will always be a lot bigger than yours LOL

Re: The Bedrock Sporting Bet Thread

Aye - it's a mug's game - every fucker knows that. They fucking should do anyway or they're heading for problems.

Mr Boring wrote:

But they really take the piss with longshots, first goalscorer and correct score markets. So in the long run you and your mates will all lose money but I'd wager your mates will have the bailiffs round sooner.

Agreed. Some of the less obvious markets offer decent 'value' a lot of the time - 'clean sheet' and 'both teams to score' for example - especially when combined into a 2, 3 or 4 fold accumulator.

Re: The Bedrock Sporting Bet Thread

Dermo wrote:

That guy on talksport the other day who was a bookie was funny saying you cant win, we gear it like that. You can only have a good day now and then but essentially my house will always be a lot bigger than yours LOL

Some individuals beat them and beat them regularly* - bookies barely give a fuck though 'cos the VAST amount of mug-cunt-punters** have got neither a clue nor a hope.

Re: The Bedrock Sporting Bet Thread

smashdad wrote:

Dermo wrote:

That guy on talksport the other day who was a bookie was funny saying you cant win, we gear it like that. You can only have a good day now and then but essentially my house will always be a lot bigger than yours LOL

Some individuals beat them and beat them regularly* - bookies barely give a fuck though 'cos the VAST amount of mug-cunt-punters** have got neither a clue nor a hope.

...edit...* I am not one of them** I am one of them

Yeh I think he was talking on a global scale.

I don't reckon a lot of people make a lot out of the footy. Its your hard core nag fanciers.

Re: The Bedrock Sporting Bet Thread

Dermo wrote:

I don't reckon a lot of people make a lot out of the footy. Its your hard core nag fanciers.

I think a lot of big-time successful punters make a lot of their money on the in-play markets.

Ante-post odds on a big favourite (Snooker/darts/tennis/etc) can change considerably if they lose the first frame/leg/set/etc - and the guys who've got the time to be on top of all that sort of detail lump on and benefit when the class act turns it around. Done it myself a couple of times - but literally only a couple of times - US Open coming up will be a good example - Murray loses a first set and his odds will plummet from 1/50 to 6/1 - punters who trust Murray to turn it round over five sets lump on and will get paid nine times out of ten.

Re: The Bedrock Sporting Bet Thread

Re: The Bedrock Sporting Bet Thread

smashdad wrote:

Mr Boring wrote:

But they really take the piss with longshots, first goalscorer and correct score markets. So in the long run you and your mates will all lose money but I'd wager your mates will have the bailiffs round sooner.

Agreed. Some of the less obvious markets offer decent 'value' a lot of the time - 'clean sheet' and 'both teams to score' for example - especially when combined into a 2, 3 or 4 fold accumulator.

Re: The Bedrock Sporting Bet Thread

smashdad wrote:

Murray loses a first set and his odds will plummet from 1/50 to 6/1 - punters who trust Murray to turn it round over five sets lump on and will get paid nine times out of ten.

There is absolutely no way that odds would go from 1/50 to 6/1 to win outright. For starters, for odds to be that short he'd have to playing a piss poor opponent. If he lost the first set he'd still be favourite to win. You might get 1/20 instead.

I know it was just an example but still, the bookies aren't *that* stupid.

Re: The Bedrock Sporting Bet Thread

Murray loses a first set and his odds will plummet from 1/50 to 6/1 - punters who trust Murray to turn it round over five sets lump on and will get paid nine times out of ten.

There is absolutely no way that odds would go from 1/50 to 6/1 to win outright. For starters, for odds to be that short he'd have to playing a piss poor opponent. If he lost the first set he'd still be favourite to win. You might get 1/20 instead.

I know it was just an example but still, the bookies aren't *that* stupid.

Au contraire mate - and this is my point - the in-play odds can swing violently 'cos they reflect the flow of money during the game and NOT the quality of players contesting it.

You're right - it was just an example but I based it on experience - did it once with Federer at (I think) the French Open earlier this year. Also done similar with Phil Taylor at the PDC Worlds and Higgins in some snooker.