Sijmen has a secret weapon to predict the Oscar nominations! Watch and learn!

Friday, December 2, 2011

The 2011-2012 Award Season has arrived...

There won't be a Sijmen's Oscar Experiment this year. I'll do the experiment just for me (because I can't help myself), but I won't put the results up after every single award... (I'll reveal the results when the experiment is over, just a few days before the Oscar Nominations are announced.)

However, if you want to know what the experiment is saying right now, you can donwload the Excell pages HERE.

11 comments:

Anonymous
said...

Hi there,

I love your experiment. However, I think you've made an error with V. Davis's score thus far. You give her 7 (as of SAG nods) -- but she only has Satellite nod (1 pt) and SAG nod (4 pt). Did you mistake her being runner-up for NYFC Online, as runner-up for NYFCC, and thus give her 2 extra pts? Or perhaps you believed she had won an Oscar before, and thus would profit with 2 pts from the Meryl Streep Rule? Anyway, just wanted to let you know. I might be wrong, though!

BTW, why don't you award any points for a BFCA nomination? Those have become somewhat influential now that they give full sets of nominees rather than just winners. For example, if say 2 pts was assigned for a BFCA nod, the formula would've correctly predicted Williams over Moore last year

Hi 'Anonymous'. I regulary make some mistakes on my own formula, I admit that. But those two extra points for Viola Davis were no error.

This is a rule for the Screen Actors Guild Awards;

"Leading actors/actresses of the Best Ensemble nominees, who received one prior Oscar nomination (but didn't win), receive 2 points extra."

If you have other questions, please feel free to ask.

For example I just found out that the runners-up for the NYFCC are known. You can find them here: http://oscarsijmen.freehostia.com/NYFCC10.htm

(each runner-up receives two points)

As for the Critics Choice Awards. The Critic's Choice tends to nominate the usual suspects, while at the Oscars there are always some surprising and off-beat choices. I try to find those surprising choices by including critic's group that think outside the map (like San Diego Film Critics, the Satellites, the Online Film Critics Society, the Bafta's), and to omit award groups who try too hard to predict the Oscars. There are still lots of Oscar predicting award groups included (like the SAG, the DGA, the PGA, the Globes...)

The first year I did the Experiment I included all the awards I could find. But that didn't work so well...

Hi!I love, love, your experiment and I'm trying my best to follow it without your updates just with the file.But I was just wondering, how come Young Adult is not on the Original script race on your experiment? Also, have you ever considered doing the animated feature category?

Thanks, Snowweisz.Young Adult just has not yet won an award or been nominated for an award the experiment is tracking. At least not for screenplay. I'm a bit surprised by that. I'm just as surprised by other missing screenplays like Beginners, Extremely Loud and Incredible Close, Margin Call...

And no, I don't think he Formula would work for Best Animated Feature, or Best Foreign Language Film. Those categories are a species of their own. There is no logic there :-)

@ Anonymous:When I read your question, I thought the answer would be easy to find, but to my own bafflement (and shame) I can't find the answer...

I remember that at the time, it had something to do with the Producers Guild Award (for which Hamlet was nominated). A film with PGA nomination received 2 points in the Best Screenplay category. But apparently - since I can't find that rule anymore - I changed that rule, and didn't change the 1996 results.

also have a question, don't you think that acting runner-ups from St. Louis or Dallas should have got some points?Maggie Gyllenhaal (CH), Tommy Lee Jones (ITVoE) and others would have benefited from it...

I think Jason Reitman's insistence in pushing back Young Adult made it lose on the award season momentum, unfortunately. Poor guy can't catch a winner lol

Interesting what you say about animation. Makes sense because I feel like a lot of the animation nominations in various awards are so random and make so little sense when compared to the Academy Awards one.