Life, and the Universe ... Global warming? Evolution or Intelligent Design? Renewable energy or nuclear power? Science versus religion? Historical fact, or myth? Can time go backwards? A wide-ranging blog about the intriguing "basic questions" of life and the universe, focused not on the various topics themselves but rather WHAT THE QUESTIONS ARE and HOW THEY CAN OR SHOULD BE ANSWERED -- scientifically and rationally, or otherwise.

Monday, April 20, 2015

Scientists and other concerned about global warming have, in my opinion, not done a good job people trying to get the message across.

In particular, they often present arguments about warming that has occurred during the last century or so, showing alarmingly steep graphs of global temperature rises. In very few cases will you be shown what preceded the recent temperature changes, over a much longer period of centuries or millennia.

I have tried to point this out here in this blog -- see The rattlesnake;s rattle (part 2)— and included a few illustrations that I was able to patch together back then (in 2010).

To expound on my point, let’s look at the following chart from the above paper:

I’d consider any trends that emerge from studying natural phenomena over several millennia are more likely to be meaningful than supposed trends obtained from results of measurements made only in the last century or so.

I have added a green ellipse around the part that is often used when discussing global warming, and I’d say that the accusation can be made, with quite some justification, that basing global warming arguments over such a restricted period (the art that’s circled, a handful of decades) is not very convincing science.

But if you consider the entire scope of this chart, it becomes much “safer” to argue that there indeed has been a sudden and significant rise in temperature during the last half century.

That’s what I was trying to get at in earlier bog posts, via my not-so-good analogy of the rattlesnake with its tail steeply raised giving us a warning that we cannot afford to ignore:

Imagine that the snake represents climate changes going way back in time, and we’re positioned at the very tip of the rattle

About Me

Tony Austin ... Trained in science and engineering, still tend to approach life from a scientist's or engineer's viewpoint, but over the years have picked up skills in sales/marketing, journalism and other non-technical areas. Taught Chemistry / Math / Science in high schools. Joined IBM Australia in 1970, retired in 1995, since then have been an "independent consultant" [an oxymoron]. So now I have over four decades in the IT business, still enjoying it enormously - except, that is, for the same silly mistakes being repeated time and time again in function and interfaces, won't we ever learn? ... Decided to retire from IT consulting at end of 2013 after 44 years in the industry, closed Asia/Pacific Computer Services then, but am still regularly writing technology articles as an industry observer.