2015 NFL Mock Draft: An Oddsmakers Take

2015 NFL Mock Draft: An Oddsmakers Take

The first round of the 2015 NFL draft commences Thursday, April 30th at 8 p.m. ET as teams search for the best young talent from the college ranks. Although fans from across the country will be scouring the internet looking for mock draft predictions for their favorite team, there is a large segment of the population who believe that these mock drafts are typically inaccurate and offer limited insight.

Right now Florida State QB Jameis Winston seems to be the consensus for the number one overall pick, but things get murkier after that. Although Oregon QB Marcus Mariota seems like the front runner for the number two overall pick, it’s highly questionable whether the Titans will be keeping or trading this pick. In fact, the popular offshore sportsbook Bovada posted a prop bet regarding this very subject.

Mariota is -500 to be drafted with the second overall pick but just -110 to be drafted by the Titans. That’s because teams like the Philadelphia Eagles and San Diego Chargers are viewed as potential trade destinations with veteran QB’s like Sam Bradford and Philip Rivers conceivably being dealt to Tennessee along with additional draft pick compensation.

The table below compares the most recent 2015 NFL mock draft picks from Mel Kiper, Todd McShay and Peter King to these oddsmaker projections to see if there are any discrepancies.

Team (Pick)

Oddsmakers

Todd McShay (4/22)

Mel Kiper (4/9)

Peter King (4/28)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1)

Jameis Winston

Jameis Winston

Jameis Winston

Jameis Winston

Tennessee Titans (2)

Marcus Mariota

Marcus Mariota

Marcus Mariota

Marcus Mariota

Jacksonville Jaguars (3)

Leonard Williams

Dante Fowler

Leonard Williams

Amari Cooper

Oakland Raiders (4)

Dante Fowler

Amari Cooper

Amari Cooper

Leonard Williams

Washington Redskins (5)

Amari Cooper

Shane Ray

Dante Fowler

Dante Fowler

New York Jets (6)

Brandon Scherff

Todd Gurley

Brandon Scherff

Andrus Peat

Chicago Bears (7)

Kevin White

Leonard WIlliams

Kevin White

Bud Dupree

As you can see, there are a number of differing opinions once we get past the top two picks. The over/under on Florida DE/OLB Dante Fowler’s draft position is currently 3.5 with the over currently juiced up to -140. There’s another prop bet that lists USC DT Leonard Williams as a -120 favorite to be selected ahead of Fowler (-110). Although it’s only a slight lean, this was enough for us to slot Williams at 3 and Fowler at 4.

Another prop bet has the over/under for Alabama WR Amari Cooper’s draft position at 5.5 with the under currently being juiced up. Although ESPN’s tandem of Mel Kiper and Todd McShay project the Raiders to once again draft a wide receiver with the fourth pick, we believe Cooper will drop to Washington at 5. Between DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon the Redskins already have two highly capable receivers, but the team may want to surround RGIII with as much talent as possible before giving up on their supposed franchise quarterback.

Originally we felt that it was almost impossible to gauge what the New York Jets will do with the number six pick. All three draft experts have different players falling to New York and there have been rumors that the Jets are willing to trade up for Mariota or trade down to accrue additional draft picks. However, most experts agree that if the Jets stand pat, they will likely select an offensive lineman.

On Wednesday morning, BetOnline posted odds for the first player drafted at every position. The prop bet for offensive lineman can be viewed below:

Brandon Scherff -205

Andrus Peat +350

La’el Collins +600

Ereck Flowers +900

DJ Humphries +1200

TJ Clemmings +3300

Cedric Ogbuehi +400

Although Peter Kings believes that Stanford OT Andrus Peat (+350) will be the Jets selection, we feel much more comfortable agreeing with Mel Kiper’s assessment on the pick.

The final pick that we feel comfortable projecting is the Chicago Bears selecting West Virginia WR Kevin White. After trading star receiver Brandon Marshall to the Jets, Chicago has a clear need for another pass catcher. White posted massive numbers last season for the Mountaineers (109 catches for 1,447 yards) and was incredibly impressive at the combine. The over/under on White’s draft position is currently 7 with the under juiced up to -140.

Other NFL Draft Props to Monitor:

Wisconsin RB Melvin Gordon: Draft Position O/U 22.5

How many quarterbacks will be taken in the 1st round? O/U 2.5 (U-350)

How many running backs will be taken in the 1st round? O/U 1.5 (O-550)

How many wide receivers will be taken in the 1st round? O/U 5.5 (O-140

How many offensive linemen will be taken in the 1st round? O/U 6 (O-125)

How many defensive backs will be taken in the 1st round? O/U 6 (U-155)

How many defensive linemen plus linebackers will be taken in the 1st round? O/U 10 (O-150)

Will Adrian Peterson be drafted before the conclusion of the draft? Yes +200 | No -300

First Player Drafted by Position

Quarterback (4/29 vs. 4/30)

Jameis Winston -1000 | -2500

Marcus Mariota +800 | +800

Field +1200 | +3300

Running Back (4/29 vs. 4/30)

Todd Gurley -550 | -550

Melvin Gordon +375 | +300

Ameer Abdullah +2500 | +3300

Tevin Coleman +2800 | +3300

Wide Receiver (4/29 vs. 4/30)

Amari Cooper -280 | -800

Kevin White +220 | +500

DeVante Parker +2000 | +2800

Offensive Guard

AJ Cann -130

Laken Tomlinson +150

Arie Kouandijo +1200

Tre Jackson +1200

Defensive End (4/29 vs. 4/30)

Leonard Williams -195 | -130

Dante Fowler +145 | +100

Randy Gregory +2000 | +2500

Inside Linebacker (4/29 vs. 4/30)

Eric Kendricks -120 | -120

Benardrick McKinney +250 | +500

Denzel Perryman +500 | +150

Stephone Anthony +500 | +500

Ramik Wilson +2500 | +2500

Outside Linebacker (4/29 vs. 4/30)

Vic Beasley -300 | -225

Alvin Dupree +200 | +150

Eli Harold +1400 | +2500

Paul Dawson +1400 | +2500

Shaq Thompson +1400 | +2500

Cornerback (4/29 vs. 4/30)

Trae Waynes -600 | -800

Byron Jones +600 | +750

Marcus Peters +650 | +1000

Kevin Johnson +1000 | +900

Jalen Collins +1000 | +2000

We will continue to update this piece as the draft approaches and more prop bets are released. Have any questions for the staff at Sports Insights? Make sure to utilize our live chat or call us directly at 877-838-2853.

David Solar is the Content Manager at Sports Insights and can be reached directly at david@sportsinsights.com.

There are three preseason games tonight and by far the most interesting should be the Ravens at the Dolphins, in which Jay Cutler will make his debut. The Dolphins’ futures have been getting worse and... Read more →

Bitcoin is not only experiencing explosive growth in value, it’s also becoming trendy with seasoned sports bettors. Many bettors have welcomed Bitcoin-only sportsbooks as an opportunity for new outs and traditional shops have taken note,... Read more →

BetOnline was the first to post College Football Win Totals for the 2017 season, but only listed five major schools. Alabama 10.5 (Over -425, Under +325) Ohio St 10.5 (Over -215, Under +170) Florida St... Read more →