The Biggest Draft Flops In Sports

For National Football League general managers, scouts and personnel gurus, the homework is just about done.

The 2008 college draft, scheduled for April 26, will be the culmination of an exhaustive year of player research, scouting, personality tests and nodding off over game film.

Yet there are no guarantees. Will the team that drafts Boston College's Matt Ryan, expected to be the first quarterback taken this year, get themselves the next Peyton Manning, the top pick by the Colts in 1998 who went on to stardom? Or will the team end up with the next Ryan Leaf, the big quarterback picked right behind Manning who flopped as a pro despite obvious talent?

To peg the biggest draft busts, we looked at the players selected as one of the top five picks in the NFL, NBA, NHL and Major League Baseball drafts since 1983. Those who made the list scored lowest in service time and production with the clubs that drafted them (in baseball and hockey, which tend to draft younger players, some never reached the big club at all).

When it comes to first-round draft picks, millions of dollars are at stake. A player taken with one of the top five picks is almost certain to become the highest-paid player in league history at his position, with the top overall pick likely to pick up at least $30 million in guaranteed money.

Despite compiling enough information to fill a book, team executives can never know for sure whether a player will succeed. Many factors determine success (or failure) in professional sports--injuries, for instance--regardless of talent level.

That's especially true in football, a team game where the parts need to fit together. A rifle-armed quarterback or lighting quick running back can't do very much for a team that hasn't invested sufficiently in a strong offensive line that can protect them.

"It is often the situation; being on a bad team can really make a difference," says Scott Wright, who has run the website nfldraftcountdown.com for the last 10 years.

For others, it's simply a matter of maturity and mental toughness. Leaf, a former Washington State University quarterback whose pro scouts rated as being about even with Manning 10 years ago, was given a five-year, $31 million deal by the San Diego Chargers after being chosen No. 2 in the 1998 draft.

But Leaf soon became known for a stubborn attitude and arguing with coaches as much as for his cannon arm. His career fizzled quickly, and by 2003 he was out of the league.

"Ryan Leaf is the ultimate bust. He just didn't have the makeup to succeed," Wright says.

Most conversations on highly-touted basketball flops begin with Sam Bowie, who was famously taken No. 2 overall by the Portland Trail Blazers in 1984--one spot ahead of Michael Jordan. But Bowie actually had a decent career, averaging 11 points and eight rebounds per game over 11 seasons.

If not for the Jordan factor, memories of Bowie not living up to his draft position would have faded long ago.

Far worse on the league's draft-bust scale were Chris Washburn, who lasted just four seasons and averaged 3.1 points a game after going third overall to the Warriors in 1986, and Nikoloz Tskitishvili, a center from Italy who averaged 2.9 points and 1.8 rebounds in a five-year career after he was picked fifth by the Denver Nuggets in 2002.

While football and basketball can bring its share of unpredictability (who would have thought Manning's predecessor at the University of Tennessee, Heath Shuler, would be such a flop as a high draft pick in 1994 while Hall of Famer Joe Montana would be such a find in the third round in 1979?), there's nothing like the Major League Baseball June draft for guesswork and exasperation.

Unlike football and basketball players, most of the high school and college players drafted in baseball aren't ready to produce for the big league club right away. Seasoning in the minor leagues is required first, meaning that a longer-term evaluation of a player's potential is needed. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't.

Casual baseball fans would have a hard time recognizing the long list of names that flopped as top-five picks over the years.

Remember Mark Merchant, a high school outfielder taken second overall by the Pirates in 1987? How about Corey Myers, who got $2 million from the Milwaukee Brewers in 1999 as the fourth overall selection?

Of course you don't remember them: Like so many other top picks, neither played a game in the major leagues. Meanwhile, top stars like Don Mattingly, Mike Piazza and John Smotlz have been plucked from the bottom rungs of the draft.

Other baseball flops over the years include high school catcher Kurt Brown, who was picked ahead of Barry Bonds by the Chicago White Sox in 1985, and college pitcher B.J. Wallace, chosen third overall by Montreal Expos in 1992.

While seven-figure bonuses have become the norm for top baseball picks, the league has actually done a pretty good job of taming the inflation that was so rampant in the 1990s, according to Baseball America Executive Editor Jim Callis.

During that decade, bonuses increased by double-digit percentages in every year but one, including three jumps of 40% or more.

The catalyst was infamous Yankee prospect Brien Taylor, who shattered the bonus record after he signed for $1.55 million as the top pick out of high school in 1991. Taylor eventually flopped, never making it to Yankee Stadium. By the end of the decade, owners had figured out a way to curtail the upward spiral of signing bonuses.

In 2000, the commissioner's office recommended a slotting system for the owners to follow, which set limits on the bonus of a top-five pick. While you'd think the players union would be up in arms about such price fixing, it isn't.

Why?

An agent who thinks a certain player can get more than a slotted amount for a high draft pick simply makes it known his client won't sign with a team poised to take him in the top five. The result: The player slips down to a large-market team that's willing to meet his demands.

"It plays right into the hand[s] of the big market teams," Callis says, adding that's how the Yankees were able to draft top pitching prospects Joba Chamberlain and Ian Kennedy.

So maybe it's no surprise that many of the top picks fizzle; they're chosen as much for economics as they are for ability.

Not that small-market teams mind such an arrangement--not when it comes complete with a generous revenue-sharing arrangement. With the draft costing the league's 30 teams some $150 million annually, the likes of Pittsburgh and Milwaukee are happy to make the trade-off.

"Most teams don't have a problem with the Yankees and Red Sox going over the slots," Callis says. "Those two teams effectively pay for their draft."