Americans on Iraq: Military Action or Diplomacy?

by Joseph Carroll

Exactly 12 years ago, just before the Persian Gulf War, most
Americans believed that the United States should take a patient
approach in dealing with Iraq after its invasion of Kuwait in
August 1990 -- most wanted to wait and see if diplomatic and
economic sanctions would be effective before using military force.
But today, amid continued threats of terrorism post-Sept. 11, the
American public is much less likely to argue for patience when it
comes to combating perceived threats to national security.

The Gulf War Era: The Wait-And-See Approach to Dealing With
Iraq

An August 1990 Gallup/Newsweek poll* asked Americans if
President George H.W. Bush "should quickly begin military action
against Iraq" or if he "should wait to see if economic and
diplomatic sanctions were effective." An overwhelming 80% of
respondents said Bush should wait to see if the sanctions were
successful; only 17% said Bush should begin military action
quickly.

In subsequent months, the number of Americans saying that Bush
should "wait to see" decreased slightly. In October and November,
roughly seven in 10 respondents said Bush should take the
wait-and-see approach, while a little more than one in five adults
said Bush should begin military action. By the end of December
1990, only a slight majority of respondents (53%) said the United
States should wait and see if diplomatic and economic efforts would
solve the problems with Iraq, and support for military action
increased to 41%. By early January 1991, the public was essentially
divided on employing diplomatic efforts (46%) versus taking
military action (49%).

Bush began the Persian Gulf War on Jan. 16, 1991, with air
assaults against targets in Iraq and Kuwait. A Jan. 17-18 Gallup
Poll** asked the public if it approved of "the military action
against Iraq" or if the "United States should have waited longer to
see if economic and diplomatic sanctions were effective." A rally
effect was evident, as three in four Americans (78%) said they
approved of the military action, and only 17% said the United
States should have waited longer.

The terrorist attacks on Sept. 11, 2001, seem to have changed
the American public's attitude on these matters. Since the attacks,
substantially smaller numbers of Americans say that the United
States should rely on diplomatic and economic efforts to deal with
both the general threat of terrorism and the specific situation in
Iraq.

Shortly after Sept. 11, Gallup asked Americans in an October
2001 poll*** what actions the United States should take to deal
with terrorism. At that time, 49% of Americans said we should mount
a long-term war to defeat global terrorist networks, while 43% said
we should only take action to punish those responsible for the
Sept. 11 attacks, and only 6% said we should rely only on economic
and diplomatic efforts. By June 2002, the number of Americans
saying the United States should rely solely on diplomatic and
economic efforts to fight terrorism had increased only slightly to
10%.

Over the past couple of months, the current Bush administration
has been focused once again on addressing the perceived threat of
Iraq and Saddam Hussein. Once again, the majority of Americans seem
to favor military action over continued economic and diplomatic
efforts.

A September 2002 CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll**** asked
Americans what the United Nations should do if Iraq fails to meet a
new deadline on weapons inspections -- authorize military action or
engage in further diplomatic efforts. Roughly six in 10 respondents
(61%) said the United Nations should authorize military action if
Iraq fails to meet a U.N.-imposed deadline on weapons inspections
while only 35% said the United Nations should continue to engage in
further diplomatic efforts with Iraq if it fails to meet a
deadline.

Key Points

The debate between the within the Bush administration about a
possible war with Iraq has been well publicized. Much depends on
whether the American people can be convinced that military action
is necessary. A Gallup Poll taken last month suggests that the U.S.
public's willingness to take military action has increased when
compared to 1990, when a similar choice was faced just prior to the
Gulf War.

*Results are based on telephone interviews with 767 national
adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Aug. 23-24, 1990. For results
based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95%
confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is
±4%.

**Results are based on telephone interviews with 752 national
adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Jan. 17-18, 1991. For results
based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95%
confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is
±4%.

***Results are based on telephone interviews with 819 national
adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Oct. 5-6, 2001. For results
based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95%
confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is
±4%.

****Results are based on telephone interviews with 803 national
adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Sept. 13-16, 2002. For results
based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95%
confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4%.
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical
difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into
the findings of public opinion polls.

Recommended

All in all, do you think it was worth going to war in Iraq, or not? In general, how would you say things are going for the U.S. in Iraq -- [ROTATED: very well, moderately well, moderately badly, (or) very badly]? In view of the developments since we first sent our troops to Iraq, do you think the United States made a mistake in sending troops to Iraq, or not?

Patterns of support for war with Iraq have been fairly predictable. As one would expect, Republicans are more likely than Democrats to favor an invasion, and people who approve of President George W. Bush also tend to approve of war against Iraq. But one group that may seem likely to oppose war in fact does not -- the religiously devout.

As President George W. Bush continues to push for action against Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq, a review of Gallup Poll data from the months leading up to the Persian Gulf War provides some interesting comparisons between public support for former President George H.W. Bush's handling of the Iraq situation in 1990 and 1991, and the current climate of public opinion toward the Iraq situation.