Irene sends 4.5 foot storm surge up Chesapeake Bay

The eye of Hurricane Irene is back over water, after the hurricane completed a 11-hour crossing of eastern North Carolina. Irene came ashore over Cape Lookout, North Carolina at 7:30 am EDT this morning as a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. The Cedar Island Ferry Terminal measured sustained winds of 90 mph, gusting to 115 mph at 7:19am, as measured by a Department of Transportation official. I suspect this measurement came when a thunderstorm near Irene's center collapsed, sending a powerful downburst to the surface. A trained spotter on Atlantic Beach, NC measured sustained winds of 85 mph, gusting to 101 mph at 10:35 am. The Hurricane Hunters measured 80 mph winds over water at the time of landfall. However, no regular weather station or buoy has measured sustained hurricane force winds in Irene, with the highest winds being 67 mph at the Cape Lookout, North Carolina buoy as Irene made landfall. Winds have peaked along the coast of Virginia, where sustained winds of 61 mph were observed at 6 pm EDT at Chesapeake Bay Light. Irene's passage over land weakened the storm slightly, and satellite loops show more dry air has wrapped into the storm. The radar presentation of Irene visible on the Norfolk, VA radar is still very impressive--Irene is dropping torrential rains over a huge area--but there is much less rain over the storm's southeastern quadrant, over water. Radar-estimated rainfall shows a 50 mile-wide band of 8+ inches of rain has fallen from where Irene made landfall at Cape Lookout, North Carolina, northwards to Dover, Delaware. Some isolated amounts of 15+ inches may have fallen, according to the radar estimates. Bunyan, NC has received 14.00" so far, and the towns of Washington, New Bern, Grifton, Newport-Croatan, Wonona, NC, all received more than ten inches. Norfolk, Virginia had received 7.73" as of 7pm EDT, and Suffolk, Virginia, 8.00".

Figure 1. True-color MODIS image of Hurricane Irene over North Carolina taken at 11:35 am EDT August 27, 2011. At the time, Irene was a Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Storm surge damage from IreneThe storm surge and wave action from Irene is likely to cause the storm's greatest damage. High tide is near 7 - 8 pm EDT tonight, meaning that the storm surges occurring now will be some of Irene's most damaging. The highest surges measured at any of NOAA's regular tide gauges at 8 pm were 4.5 feet at Sewells Point in Norfolk Virginia and Oregon Inlet, NC. Higher surges are occurring father inland where narrow inlets funnel the storm surge to higher elevations. It remains unclear if the ocean will overtop Manhattan's sea wall at The Battery Sunday morning during the 8 am high tide. Latest storm surge forecasts from SUNY Stony Brook predict a peak water level of 2.4 meters above Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW) at 7:15 am Sunday, which would put the ocean right at the top of the sea wall. Presumably, waves from the hurricane's winds would then push some water over the top of the wall, but it is uncertain whether or not this would cause significant flooding. The storm surge was already 1 foot at 8 pm tonight. Storm surge flooding continues to be a major concern all along the coast of Long Island Sound; I recommend the SUNY Stony Brook storm surge page for those interested in looking at observed and predicted storm surge levels along coast New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut.

Figure 2. Storm surge at Sewell's Point in Norfolk, Virginia as of 8 pm EDT Saturday August 27, 2011. The green line is the storm surge, which is the difference between the observed water level (red line) and what the water level should have been without the hurricane (blue line). At 8 pm, the storm surge was 4.5 feet. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.

Figure 3. Distribution of Irene's wind field at 6:30 pm EDT Saturday August 27, 2011, as observed by the Hurricane Hunters, land stations, and buoys. The right front quadrant of the hurricane had all of the storm's shrinking hurricane-force winds (yellow and orange colors.) Tropical storm-force winds (heavy black like bounding the light blue area) extended out 290 miles from the center of Irene over water, but very few areas of land were receiving tropical storm force winds. Image credit: NOAA/AOML/HRD.

Wind damageThe emergence of Irene's eye over water will slow the storm's rate of weakening, but the storm is under too much wind shear to allow it to intensify. The latest wind distribution map from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division (Figure 3) shows that all of Irene's hurricane-force winds are on the storm's east side, and also the large majority of the tropical storm-force winds. When Irene makes its 2nd landfall on Long Island, NY on Sunday, coastal locations to the right of the eye will likely experience top sustained winds of 50 - 60 mph. Coastal areas of Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, and the New York CIty area will mostly see top winds in the 40 - 55 mph range, since they will be on the weaker left side of the storm. Winds on the upper floors of skyscrapers will be up to 30% higher, but I expect there will be only isolated problems with New York City skyscrapers suffering blown out windows. The winds from Irene in New York City will be no worse than those experienced during some of the city's major Nor'easter winter storms of the past twenty years.

TornadoesFour tornadoes have been spawned by Irene, two in coastal North Carolina last night, and two in coastal Virginia today. At least two homes have been destroyed, and ten others damaged by the tornadoes. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has issued a tornado watch for all of coastal Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut.

Quoting Torgen:I come in here to check on damage in New York and New England because I have friends there, and the blog is AGAIN filled with self important, braying right wing jackasses telling everyone how awesome and all-knowing they are and how everyone else is SO pathetic. Until the blog actually starts getting policed, I'm gone.

Must not have read very much before you gave up, plenty of left-wing know-it-alls, too. lol

On another note:I don't ever remember putting this many people on my ignore list after a storm has made landfall (not you, Torgen - just didn't want to do a separate post). I thought I was supposed to mellow as I aged! Stupidity has been on the rise, though, so the ratio must still be the same.

Quoting odinslightning:i feel bad for people responsible for evac'ing people (the governors, the weathermen, etc). it seems like a no win situation. if they try to protect people and the event isnt as bad as feared they are considered stupid and blamed for wasting everyones time. if they downplay events then when a bad one happens everyone is gonna blame em for all of the injured parties......how do you win in that scenario?

You win by doing what you believe is best for the affected people. There will always be bitter, critical and sarcastic people no matter what you do. Ignore them. The "critics" are not serving any beneficial function. Poof, they're gone.

Quoting Torgen:I come in here to check on damage in New York and New England because I have friends there, and the blog is AGAIN filled with self important, braying right wing jackasses telling everyone how awesome and all-knowing they are and how everyone else is SO pathetic. Until the blog actually starts getting policed, I'm gone.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:in the early days if a forecaster got a forecast wrong they could be killed for it and even further back if you even tried to predict the weather you be considered a witch and be burned at the stake

Quoting Levi32:I really wish you guys would quit downplaying Irene and talking about how much she was overhyped and overforecasted. She's likely to be a multi-billion dollar disaster.....what did you want? She's going down on the list of great storms to move up the eastern seaboard. She counts, and people there will tell you that. My goodness.

Not downplaying. Putting it into proper perspective. Flood waters will recede quickly and power will be restored quickly. Unlike a serious hurricane, infrastructure remains in tact. This is all great news. Hurricanes I been through leave you without power for weeks and infrastructure is gone so even if house okay, no place to get gas, food or water. That is the type if damage some were leading people to believe. Nothing historic but hype or potential for devastation that existed.

Doesn't matter what people say in here, someone will twist to suit their purpose. We had horrible floods in Midwest and unprecedented tornado destruction. A bullet was dodged with Irene. Many or perhaps most of the knowledgeable mets pegged ultimate intensity Friday and early Saturday. Some just don't listen.

Quoting odinslightning:i feel bad for people responsible for evac'ing people (the governors, the weathermen, etc). it seems like a no win situation. if they try to protect people and the event isnt as bad as feared they are considered stupid and blamed for wasting everyones time. if they downplay events then when a bad one happens everyone is gonna blame em for all of the injured parties......how do you win in that scenario?

in the early days if a forecaster got a forecast wrong they could be killed for it and even further back if you even tried to predict the weather you be considered a witch and be burned at the stake

Look at all the investment in China. Communist workers there are funding/fueling Global growth. Have you heard of a "Chicken or the Egg" discussion. 33% of GDP is Gubbermint spending. Some used to call that investment. Today we call is "stupid." lol

There is no way to separate business interests from public infrastructure. I do understand drug development. It is my job, but you underestimate the billions of dollars in ideas that start in an Academic research lab in the US, Canada, and Europe. You are at best being naive about how drugs are produced. There is a substantial basic level of research that is required for any drug to make it. That work is funded by the National Institute of Health and their European counterparts -- hold back your head and howl. You have no idea.

Also your proclamation that drugs are not developed in Europe is well silly,since you must not know who Bayer, Roche, Novartis, AstraZeneca, GlaxoSmithKline, et al. are. I will clue you in -- they are private companies in Europe that develop drugs and make money doing so.

Quoting odinslightning:i feel bad for people responsible for evac'ing people (the governors, the weathermen, etc). it seems like a no win situation. if they try to protect people and the event isnt as bad as feared they are considered stupid and blamed for wasting everyones time. if they downplay events then when a bad one happens everyone is gonna blame em for all of the injured parties......how do you win in that scenario?

Quoting odinslightning:i feel bad for people responsible for evac'ing people (the governors, the weathermen, etc). it seems like a no win situation. if they try to protect people and the event isnt as bad as feared they are considered stupid and blamed for wasting everyones time. if they downplay events then when a bad one happens everyone is gonna blame em for all of the injured parties......how do you win in that scenario?

i feel bad for people responsible for evac'ing people (the governors, the weathermen, etc). it seems like a no win situation. if they try to protect people and the event isnt as bad as feared they are considered stupid and blamed for wasting everyones time. if they downplay events then when a bad one happens everyone is gonna blame em for all of the injured parties......how do you win in that scenario?

Quoting Torgen:I come in here to check on damage in New York and New England because I have friends there, and the blog is AGAIN filled with self important, braying right wing jackasses telling everyone how awesome and all-knowing they are and how everyone else is SO pathetic. Until the blog actually starts getting policed, I'm gone.

Quoting Walnut: umm... actually China is Communist. Anyway, most standards are set by private organizations (like ASTM, UL, Intertek, SAE, etc) with governmental liaisons. I'm all for a private organization to attempt to compete with the NWS. The more data the better! (oh and I am one of those so-called "right-wing scientists").

Quoting Walnut: Dr. Greg Forbes is great unless he has one of the other twits with him kind nudging him towards sensationalism. Watch his facial expressions when Cantore is with him during tornado season. Kinda funny really... I still like Cantore for his commitment...but the guy has just gone Geraldo lately.

Yeah, Dr. Forbes has schooled Jim on some of his comments before. Jim is a nice guy, but TWC is kinda foolish for making him the face of their network.

I never said road construction should be private, but you bet the safety standards and engineering constraints are conformed to governmental standards. Same goes for flying a plane. It is just common sense that there are standards. Thank God for that. Can you imagine Company X deciding to use Chinese low grade steel because it is cheaper when the standard calls for a quality material? LOL You want that right?

Hey you want competition with the US government's weather prediction ability -- where perfect weather prediction is basically an intractable problem. You perhaps want competition with government itself. Well China is working hard to compete with the US. They have minimal safety standards for businesses. The rivers are well industrial waste. The air is largely smog ridden. But they are the manifestation of the "pro-capitalism" environment you speak of.

It is called balance. Demonize dedicated Americans all you'd like. You have any comprehension of the complexity of a civilization and the concept of leaving a little for your children and their children.

umm... actually China is Communist. Anyway, most standards are set by private organizations (like ASTM, UL, Intertek, SAE, etc) with governmental liaisons. I'm all for a private organization to attempt to compete with the NWS. The more data the better! (oh and I am one of those so-called "right-wing scientists").

yup. Wind not as high, they eye was filling in just as it hit NJ so nw it's a tropical mush - but flooding is bad and there are still two more high tides that will be bad. They won't let us back in until at least after the afternoon high tide today. And there's no power down there. Which in my house also means no water.

So it was intense of for some folks. NYC should be counting their blessings it was not worse than it was.

Fairax area where my daughter lives. She lost power about 3:30 this morning. Said winds and rain weren't too bad. She's not venturing out to see the area. LOTS of trees in Reston where she lives and Dominion Power expects assessment by noon Monday. All their video games. phones/computers were plugged in all night. With 2 young boys, she's no dummy. :)

for everyone who is disappointed in such a "minor event" just hold your horses given the prevalent long term conditions now you may not have long to wait to get some "excitement".....::::shakes head::::

with all the forecast-bashing of Irene in a sick way I am now missing the bickering and arguing in here regarding the long-term tracks of invests.....