Fimian poll shows him leading Herrity in NoVa primary race

Updated 11:45 a.m.
A poll released by Oakton businessman Keith Fimian's campaign Tuesday shows him with a double-digit lead over Fairfax County Supervisor Pat Herrity in the Republican primary contest in Virginia's 11th congressional district.

The survey -- conducted for Fimian by McLaughlin & Associates May 12-13 -- showed Fimian leading Herrity among likely primary voters, 36 percent to 23 percent. A sizable 41 percent of respondents remained undecided, giving both campaigns more room to grow ahead of the June 8 primary, which will crown a candidate to take on freshman Rep. Gerald Connolly (D) in November.

A March survey by the same firm for Fimian showed Herrity in the lead, 29 percent to 17 percent, suggesting that Fimian has been able to gain significant ground in the last two months. Fimian has spent a significant amount of time hammering Herrity for his record on the Fairfax board of supervisors, particularly on tax issues. "Keith Fimian's favorable rating (23% to 52%) and name identification (55% to 92%) have both increased significantly since March," according to pollster Jim McLaughlin's memo to the Fimian campaign.

Herrity's camp disputes the idea that Fimian's poll paints an accurate picture of the contest. Herrity's campaign released its own poll in early April, taken by the Tarrance Group, showing Herrity with a 42 percent to 21 percent lead.

In an email sent to supporters Tuesday morning titled "There he goes again," Herrity recalls, "Before the November 2008 election, Fimian claimed to be within 3 points of Gerry Connolly. On Election Day, Gerry beat Fimian by 12 over points." But Herrity did not offer any recent polling data to contradict Fimian's survey.