Year end data for Bay Area in: analysis mixed

December, 2010, a year many are glad to see the back of. And of course, as January of the new year is here, analysts look back at December data both to assess the year that was and gauge the year that will be.

First item of data up for analysis: sales increases in December

After Bay Area sales declined for four of the five previous months, numbers showed an uptick in December, with a month-over-month increase in five of six Bay Area counties. But compared to December 2009, when a first-time home-buyer credit was in full effect, sales were still light:

Redfin also projects a dip in January: “buyers and sellers play a waiting game, one hoping for more price drops, the other for price gains.”

Next item for analysis: prices

With these selective– or down right gun-shy– buyers and equally unsure sellers, prices on homes for sale have drifted down. “After November prices were mixed, December prices declined across four of the six main Bay Area counties.”

Redfin reads these numbers with a positive spin, reasoning that sellers “determined to stay ahead of any price declines, by aggressively pricing their homes” are succeeding. The result of smarter prices as well as continued strength is always in-demand area: “across all Bay Area counties except Marin, the final sale price in December was 98% of the asking price or more. In fact in hot neighborhoods, bidding wars are still the norm.”

Prices fell in all nine Bay Area counties, led by a 13 percent decline in Napa to a median $310,000. Santa Clara had the smallest decrease, dropping 3.2 percent to $460,000. San Francisco was down 5.1 percent to $617,000.

Sales declined in eight counties, falling 15 percent in Marin, 14 percent in Santa Clara and 1.6 percent in San Francisco. Napa had the only increase, up 4.7 percent, said MDA DataQuick, a unit of Richmond, British Columbia-based MacDonald, Dettwiler & Associates Ltd.

John Walsh, DataQuick MDA president explained that the type of sales most often made are what drive prices down: more than ever, distressed properties are “hot” properties: “Most of what we’re seeing are distress sales and bargain hunting, with a smattering of discretionary buying,” said Walsh. And of course, lower prices are easier to finance, which also affects overall sales prices. Walsh agreed, saying: “While the dicey economy and employment concerns are major factors, tight mortgage credit is also a big issue right now, especially for the upper half of the market.”

Clearly, data, like “facts” in s political speech, can be interpreted in at least two ways. How do you read it? Gloom or bloom? Or is the Bay Area too diverse, too unpredictable, to make any blanket statements at all?

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