Say that the election day unemployment rate is 7.9%. The economy is essentially stagnant, but has been slowly improving through fall of 2011. Obama's election day approval rating is in the mid- to upper fourties. Perry selects Marco Rubio as his running mate.

This. It would be a miracle if unemployment would get to that level, and Perry is already crazy to begin with so Obama would win in a landslide. I might give Texas to Obama in such a scenario though seeing how unpopular Perry is in his homestate.

lolPerry. Any news about he actually tried to get state money from a program which let investors bet on when retired schoolteachers would die, or any of his other actions as governor, and he's done. And with a better economy...