I have to be careful what I say on here without sounding too detrimental. However, yes it was a good draw and at last in the final 20 minutes we actually demonstrated that we have got fire in our bellies. We need that passion constantly though to be able to sustain life in this division, not just occasionally. I was very impressed with Dominic Vose, he absolutely deserved his accolades and his substitution was a real surprise to everyone. However, we did get the result in the end which counts. I only hope we can rise to the occasion at Wolves without it being a whitewash on Tuesday. Jabo looks as though he needs a rest and the defence at times went to sleep. More ruthless finishing would have put the game way beyond us long before the fightback happened. However, a point is good against an in form team. Up the U's!

I have to be careful what I say on here without sounding too detrimental. However, yes it was a good draw and at last in the final 20 minutes we actually demonstrated that we have got fire in our bellies. We need that passion constantly though to be able to sustain life in this division, not just occasionally. I was very impressed with Dominic Vose, he absolutely deserved his accolades and his substitution was a real surprise to everyone. However, we did get the result in the end which counts. I only hope we can rise to the occasion at Wolves without it being a whitewash on Tuesday. Jabo looks as though he needs a rest and the defence at times went to sleep. More ruthless finishing would have put the game way beyond us long before the fightback happened. However, a point is good against an in form team. Up the U's!Ozzie

Why was it a surprise that (MOM) Dom Vose was withdrawn? He had run his 19 year old immature legs off; and isn't superman. Also to quote Bristol manager Steve Cotterill; the U's then "put four on them" (e.g having four all out attackers and we threw the kitchen sink approach).

This substitution tactic worked, but could so easily have led to a 0-3 or 0-4 result; so it was a brave decision; and let's praise Joe Dunne. Four attackers should please those that moan 'should play two up at home"; but Chelsea; Liverpool and Man City all lined up 4-2-3-1 yesterday and scored five or six; so having one leading the line doesn't impair goalscoring. Sadly; we can't afford a Torres; Suarez or Toure.

What struck me though was Bristol City playing away in their normal home strip. Can we please do that away at Wolves - and play in (and always bleed) 'blue and white'? I reckon our white and gold away strip with its funny yoke makes us look like half time cheerleaders.

Why was it a surprise that (MOM) Dom Vose was withdrawn? He had run his 19 year old immature legs off; and isn't superman. Also to quote Bristol manager Steve Cotterill; the U's then "put four on them" (e.g having four all out attackers and we threw the kitchen sink approach).
This substitution tactic worked, but could so easily have led to a 0-3 or 0-4 result; so it was a brave decision; and let's praise Joe Dunne. Four attackers should please those that moan 'should play two up at home"; but Chelsea; Liverpool and Man City all lined up 4-2-3-1 yesterday and scored five or six; so having one leading the line doesn't impair goalscoring. Sadly; we can't afford a Torres; Suarez or Toure.
What struck me though was Bristol City playing away in their normal home strip. Can we please do that away at Wolves - and play in (and always bleed) 'blue and white'? I reckon our white and gold away strip with its funny yoke makes us look like half time cheerleaders.Noah4x4

60 minutes of nothing-ness so the final rally and unlikely share of the spoils seemed very welcome.
Very tough away games coming up.
We are hanging on to League 1 status by our fingernails.

60 minutes of nothing-ness so the final rally and unlikely share of the spoils seemed very welcome.
Very tough away games coming up.
We are hanging on to League 1 status by our fingernails.United we stand

United we stand wrote:
60 minutes of nothing-ness so the final rally and unlikely share of the spoils seemed very welcome.
Very tough away games coming up.
We are hanging on to League 1 status by our fingernails.

I think we can be far more confident than correspondents above might suggest; despite some tough games ahead. There is no mathematical comparison with the “hanging on by our fingernails” finish of last season; albeit that we cannot be complacent. Let’s consider the available data;

This season after 37 games; the U’s (16th) have 43 points and a goal difference of minus 5. Last season after 37 games; the U’s (19th) had 39 points and a goal difference of minus 20.

This season; after playing 37 games; the best placed relegation zone situated Carlisle are on 38 points and goal difference of -22; which is exactly the same as (eventually relegated) Scunthorpe in 2012-13 (having GD of -21). One can see our clear advantage; but what does this mean in terms of required form and residual games?

Our current five point advantage may seem slim; and little more than last season’s single point at this very same stage; but it has to be put in the wider context of a (statistically) rather strange season. However; the U’s 2013-14 superior (+ 17 goal) difference alone is worth a full point; and hence we already have the equivalent of two wins (six points) advantage over those in the current drop zone. With as few as 8 games left for many; just pulling back these six points to play catch up is challenging.

Perhaps the real question is what will it take for THEM to avoid relegation? That's where the wider 2013-14 season's statistics become intriguing....

Occupying an automatic promotion slot (as at today’s table) requires 79 points; when last season; it was merely 65 points at this same stage. The top three teams in 2013-14 (Wolves; Orient; Brentford) have been smashing all before them. One can hence (today) be in the top half of the division with merely 45 points; when last season it required 51 points at this same stage. With points per game being far harder to achieve for the majority; that makes our current five point advantage over the bottom four a little more significant than normal; but in the wrong circumstances (like if we lost all nine remaining games) it obviously remains slim. So what will it take to avoid relegation?

Although it required 51 points in 2012-13; it required merely 50 (or less) points in each of the previous five years (n.b. as few as 48 points in 2010-11). Given the data above; it will be interesting to see the end result; as all the other data may suggest it may be the lower. But the higher 51 should suffice for this quick appraisal. 51 would mean that the U's now need a further 8 points from the 27 available to be certain; and surely that is realistic given that we do have to play five teams below us?

But crucially we also do have a game in hand over four of the eight teams below us; when last year we didn’t (except over Bury who by now were almost already doomed). A bit like a wickets in hand in a T20 cricket Duckworth-Lewis calculation; having games in hand PLUS points PLUS goal difference mean that the mathematics after each game played will increasingly favour the teams that have already secured the greater points.

Simply to avoid relegation (and hence get to 51 points) ANY team currently in the current bottom FIVE having NINE games to play will now need greater than 1.33 points per remaining game and those on 37 games located in the drop zone already need AT LEAST 1.55 per game. Those in the drop zone having already played 38 now need 1.75 points per game. To put this into perspective; any more than 1.5 points per game is ‘play-off form’ and to sustain that for 17% (or more) of the season is challenging. Even if one team does perform this miracle; the greater likelihood is that Crewe or Oldham (also having played 38 and having fewer points than the U's) are the more likely to be dragged into the mire than us.

By contrast; the U's only need 0.88 points per game; which is little over HALF what any of those in the relegation zone now need. We have also achieved 1.16 per game to date; and that is having played all of the top half of the table twice except for Wolves; Peterborough and Walsall .

The comforting conclusion must surely be that we can't play any worse than we have in what many will consider a dire season? So we WON'T go down.

[quote][p][bold]United we stand[/bold] wrote:
60 minutes of nothing-ness so the final rally and unlikely share of the spoils seemed very welcome.
Very tough away games coming up.
We are hanging on to League 1 status by our fingernails.[/p][/quote]I think we can be far more confident than correspondents above might suggest; despite some tough games ahead. There is no mathematical comparison with the “hanging on by our fingernails” finish of last season; albeit that we cannot be complacent. Let’s consider the available data;
This season after 37 games; the U’s (16th) have 43 points and a goal difference of minus 5. Last season after 37 games; the U’s (19th) had 39 points and a goal difference of minus 20.
This season; after playing 37 games; the best placed relegation zone situated Carlisle are on 38 points and goal difference of -22; which is exactly the same as (eventually relegated) Scunthorpe in 2012-13 (having GD of -21). One can see our clear advantage; but what does this mean in terms of required form and residual games?
Our current five point advantage may seem slim; and little more than last season’s single point at this very same stage; but it has to be put in the wider context of a (statistically) rather strange season. However; the U’s 2013-14 superior (+ 17 goal) difference alone is worth a full point; and hence we already have the equivalent of two wins (six points) advantage over those in the current drop zone. With as few as 8 games left for many; just pulling back these six points to play catch up is challenging.
Perhaps the real question is what will it take for THEM to avoid relegation? That's where the wider 2013-14 season's statistics become intriguing....
Occupying an automatic promotion slot (as at today’s table) requires 79 points; when last season; it was merely 65 points at this same stage. The top three teams in 2013-14 (Wolves; Orient; Brentford) have been smashing all before them. One can hence (today) be in the top half of the division with merely 45 points; when last season it required 51 points at this same stage. With points per game being far harder to achieve for the majority; that makes our current five point advantage over the bottom four a little more significant than normal; but in the wrong circumstances (like if we lost all nine remaining games) it obviously remains slim. So what will it take to avoid relegation?
Although it required 51 points in 2012-13; it required merely 50 (or less) points in each of the previous five years (n.b. as few as 48 points in 2010-11). Given the data above; it will be interesting to see the end result; as all the other data may suggest it may be the lower. But the higher 51 should suffice for this quick appraisal. 51 would mean that the U's now need a further 8 points from the 27 available to be certain; and surely that is realistic given that we do have to play five teams below us?
But crucially we also do have a game in hand over four of the eight teams below us; when last year we didn’t (except over Bury who by now were almost already doomed). A bit like a wickets in hand in a T20 cricket Duckworth-Lewis calculation; having games in hand PLUS points PLUS goal difference mean that the mathematics after each game played will increasingly favour the teams that have already secured the greater points.
Simply to avoid relegation (and hence get to 51 points) ANY team currently in the current bottom FIVE having NINE games to play will now need greater than 1.33 points per remaining game and those on 37 games located in the drop zone already need AT LEAST 1.55 per game. Those in the drop zone having already played 38 now need 1.75 points per game. To put this into perspective; any more than 1.5 points per game is ‘play-off form’ and to sustain that for 17% (or more) of the season is challenging. Even if one team does perform this miracle; the greater likelihood is that Crewe or Oldham (also having played 38 and having fewer points than the U's) are the more likely to be dragged into the mire than us.
By contrast; the U's only need 0.88 points per game; which is little over HALF what any of those in the relegation zone now need. We have also achieved 1.16 per game to date; and that is having played all of the top half of the table twice except for Wolves; Peterborough and Walsall .
The comforting conclusion must surely be that we can't play any worse than we have in what many will consider a dire season? So we WON'T go down.Noah4x4

United we stand wrote:
60 minutes of nothing-ness so the final rally and unlikely share of the spoils seemed very welcome.
Very tough away games coming up.
We are hanging on to League 1 status by our fingernails.

I think we can be far more confident than correspondents above might suggest; despite some tough games ahead. There is no mathematical comparison with the “hanging on by our fingernails” finish of last season; albeit that we cannot be complacent. Let’s consider the available data;

This season after 37 games; the U’s (16th) have 43 points and a goal difference of minus 5. Last season after 37 games; the U’s (19th) had 39 points and a goal difference of minus 20.

This season; after playing 37 games; the best placed relegation zone situated Carlisle are on 38 points and goal difference of -22; which is exactly the same as (eventually relegated) Scunthorpe in 2012-13 (having GD of -21). One can see our clear advantage; but what does this mean in terms of required form and residual games?

Our current five point advantage may seem slim; and little more than last season’s single point at this very same stage; but it has to be put in the wider context of a (statistically) rather strange season. However; the U’s 2013-14 superior (+ 17 goal) difference alone is worth a full point; and hence we already have the equivalent of two wins (six points) advantage over those in the current drop zone. With as few as 8 games left for many; just pulling back these six points to play catch up is challenging.

Perhaps the real question is what will it take for THEM to avoid relegation? That's where the wider 2013-14 season's statistics become intriguing....

Occupying an automatic promotion slot (as at today’s table) requires 79 points; when last season; it was merely 65 points at this same stage. The top three teams in 2013-14 (Wolves; Orient; Brentford) have been smashing all before them. One can hence (today) be in the top half of the division with merely 45 points; when last season it required 51 points at this same stage. With points per game being far harder to achieve for the majority; that makes our current five point advantage over the bottom four a little more significant than normal; but in the wrong circumstances (like if we lost all nine remaining games) it obviously remains slim. So what will it take to avoid relegation?

Although it required 51 points in 2012-13; it required merely 50 (or less) points in each of the previous five years (n.b. as few as 48 points in 2010-11). Given the data above; it will be interesting to see the end result; as all the other data may suggest it may be the lower. But the higher 51 should suffice for this quick appraisal. 51 would mean that the U's now need a further 8 points from the 27 available to be certain; and surely that is realistic given that we do have to play five teams below us?

But crucially we also do have a game in hand over four of the eight teams below us; when last year we didn’t (except over Bury who by now were almost already doomed). A bit like a wickets in hand in a T20 cricket Duckworth-Lewis calculation; having games in hand PLUS points PLUS goal difference mean that the mathematics after each game played will increasingly favour the teams that have already secured the greater points.

Simply to avoid relegation (and hence get to 51 points) ANY team currently in the current bottom FIVE having NINE games to play will now need greater than 1.33 points per remaining game and those on 37 games located in the drop zone already need AT LEAST 1.55 per game. Those in the drop zone having already played 38 now need 1.75 points per game. To put this into perspective; any more than 1.5 points per game is ‘play-off form’ and to sustain that for 17% (or more) of the season is challenging. Even if one team does perform this miracle; the greater likelihood is that Crewe or Oldham (also having played 38 and having fewer points than the U's) are the more likely to be dragged into the mire than us.

By contrast; the U's only need 0.88 points per game; which is little over HALF what any of those in the relegation zone now need. We have also achieved 1.16 per game to date; and that is having played all of the top half of the table twice except for Wolves; Peterborough and Walsall .

The comforting conclusion must surely be that we can't play any worse than we have in what many will consider a dire season? So we WON'T go down.

Excellent stats Noah, makes for very interesting reading.
I, like you firmly believe that we will not go down. We are still very much a "work in progress" but given a better start to next season with no ridiculous injury list I think Joe is more than capable of taking us forward.

Here's to a good result on Tuesday.

[quote][p][bold]Noah4x4[/bold] wrote:
[quote][p][bold]United we stand[/bold] wrote:
60 minutes of nothing-ness so the final rally and unlikely share of the spoils seemed very welcome.
Very tough away games coming up.
We are hanging on to League 1 status by our fingernails.[/p][/quote]I think we can be far more confident than correspondents above might suggest; despite some tough games ahead. There is no mathematical comparison with the “hanging on by our fingernails” finish of last season; albeit that we cannot be complacent. Let’s consider the available data;
This season after 37 games; the U’s (16th) have 43 points and a goal difference of minus 5. Last season after 37 games; the U’s (19th) had 39 points and a goal difference of minus 20.
This season; after playing 37 games; the best placed relegation zone situated Carlisle are on 38 points and goal difference of -22; which is exactly the same as (eventually relegated) Scunthorpe in 2012-13 (having GD of -21). One can see our clear advantage; but what does this mean in terms of required form and residual games?
Our current five point advantage may seem slim; and little more than last season’s single point at this very same stage; but it has to be put in the wider context of a (statistically) rather strange season. However; the U’s 2013-14 superior (+ 17 goal) difference alone is worth a full point; and hence we already have the equivalent of two wins (six points) advantage over those in the current drop zone. With as few as 8 games left for many; just pulling back these six points to play catch up is challenging.
Perhaps the real question is what will it take for THEM to avoid relegation? That's where the wider 2013-14 season's statistics become intriguing....
Occupying an automatic promotion slot (as at today’s table) requires 79 points; when last season; it was merely 65 points at this same stage. The top three teams in 2013-14 (Wolves; Orient; Brentford) have been smashing all before them. One can hence (today) be in the top half of the division with merely 45 points; when last season it required 51 points at this same stage. With points per game being far harder to achieve for the majority; that makes our current five point advantage over the bottom four a little more significant than normal; but in the wrong circumstances (like if we lost all nine remaining games) it obviously remains slim. So what will it take to avoid relegation?
Although it required 51 points in 2012-13; it required merely 50 (or less) points in each of the previous five years (n.b. as few as 48 points in 2010-11). Given the data above; it will be interesting to see the end result; as all the other data may suggest it may be the lower. But the higher 51 should suffice for this quick appraisal. 51 would mean that the U's now need a further 8 points from the 27 available to be certain; and surely that is realistic given that we do have to play five teams below us?
But crucially we also do have a game in hand over four of the eight teams below us; when last year we didn’t (except over Bury who by now were almost already doomed). A bit like a wickets in hand in a T20 cricket Duckworth-Lewis calculation; having games in hand PLUS points PLUS goal difference mean that the mathematics after each game played will increasingly favour the teams that have already secured the greater points.
Simply to avoid relegation (and hence get to 51 points) ANY team currently in the current bottom FIVE having NINE games to play will now need greater than 1.33 points per remaining game and those on 37 games located in the drop zone already need AT LEAST 1.55 per game. Those in the drop zone having already played 38 now need 1.75 points per game. To put this into perspective; any more than 1.5 points per game is ‘play-off form’ and to sustain that for 17% (or more) of the season is challenging. Even if one team does perform this miracle; the greater likelihood is that Crewe or Oldham (also having played 38 and having fewer points than the U's) are the more likely to be dragged into the mire than us.
By contrast; the U's only need 0.88 points per game; which is little over HALF what any of those in the relegation zone now need. We have also achieved 1.16 per game to date; and that is having played all of the top half of the table twice except for Wolves; Peterborough and Walsall .
The comforting conclusion must surely be that we can't play any worse than we have in what many will consider a dire season? So we WON'T go down.[/p][/quote]Excellent stats Noah, makes for very interesting reading.
I, like you firmly believe that we will not go down. We are still very much a "work in progress" but given a better start to next season with no ridiculous injury list I think Joe is more than capable of taking us forward.
Here's to a good result on Tuesday.In Joe we trust

Here is a further staggering bit of data I have just spotted. The U's have had 27 managers (some as caretaker) in the 55 years since the Football League was first restructured. That means a change of manager on average every two years. Why so many....????

That statistic is even more remarkable when one considers that Parky was in charge for 141 games (e.g. three+ years) BEFORE finally assembling his promotion squad/season. Others such as Bobby Roberts and Roy McDonough also had decent stints in recent times; but at various other times; including in the last eight years; we have had an unbelievable rate of managerial turnover. Since promotion to the Championship; we have had an unbelievable SIX managers; yet have finished in the top half of Division One on five occasions in seven years. Previously we had only ever been there at such lofty altitudes on six occasions in our entire history; so in what respect have these managers been so bad/? OK; Parky did leave of his own accord to join Hull and Lambert left to join Norwich; but the rest were sacked (or left 'by mutual consent'). So what is going on?

Is this managerial merry go-round the reason why we have yo-yoed so much between what is now Division One and Two over the five decades before we arrived at WHCS; or is that annual bungee ride why we have got rid of so many? Or in truth; have the fans (and hence incumbent Chairman) rarely given anybody long enough to develop a successful side?

At last we have a Chairman committed to stability. Even if Joe Dunne wasn't manager; Robbie Cowling has stated that he is committed to the Academy; the development of youth and this particular style of football; so the moaners about the passing style and Joes' tactics might as well save their breath. Like you; I actually like what is happening and recognise this is a positive period of transition.

But Joe Dunne has had merely 72 games (some as caretaker) and until this Summer; he can't discard any of John Ward's past signings that remain with the club. With the Financial Fair Play Rules that means Joe must sell to buy (or depend upon youth and loanees). Unlike Parky; he possibly doesn't have a further 165 games to get this right; but (IMHO) he should certainly have at least another 20 games; taking us at least ten games into next season. Like your nomenclature; I do think Joe will deliver and we should simply place our trust in him and get behind the team.

Thanks "In Joe we Trust" (a sentiment that I 100% echo).
Here is a further staggering bit of data I have just spotted. The U's have had 27 managers (some as caretaker) in the 55 years since the Football League was first restructured. That means a change of manager on average every two years. Why so many....????
That statistic is even more remarkable when one considers that Parky was in charge for 141 games (e.g. three+ years) BEFORE finally assembling his promotion squad/season. Others such as Bobby Roberts and Roy McDonough also had decent stints in recent times; but at various other times; including in the last eight years; we have had an unbelievable rate of managerial turnover. Since promotion to the Championship; we have had an unbelievable SIX managers; yet have finished in the top half of Division One on five occasions in seven years. Previously we had only ever been there at such lofty altitudes on six occasions in our entire history; so in what respect have these managers been so bad/? OK; Parky did leave of his own accord to join Hull and Lambert left to join Norwich; but the rest were sacked (or left 'by mutual consent'). So what is going on?
Is this managerial merry go-round the reason why we have yo-yoed so much between what is now Division One and Two over the five decades before we arrived at WHCS; or is that annual bungee ride why we have got rid of so many? Or in truth; have the fans (and hence incumbent Chairman) rarely given anybody long enough to develop a successful side?
At last we have a Chairman committed to stability. Even if Joe Dunne wasn't manager; Robbie Cowling has stated that he is committed to the Academy; the development of youth and this particular style of football; so the moaners about the passing style and Joes' tactics might as well save their breath. Like you; I actually like what is happening and recognise this is a positive period of transition.
But Joe Dunne has had merely 72 games (some as caretaker) and until this Summer; he can't discard any of John Ward's past signings that remain with the club. With the Financial Fair Play Rules that means Joe must sell to buy (or depend upon youth and loanees). Unlike Parky; he possibly doesn't have a further 165 games to get this right; but (IMHO) he should certainly have at least another 20 games; taking us at least ten games into next season. Like your nomenclature; I do think Joe will deliver and we should simply place our trust in him and get behind the team.Noah4x4

Dream on if we get 10 points out of our last games we will have done well.we only play two sides below us now and all will be playing for survival.the points tally is so close that we will all be biting our nails till the game with Walsall is over.

Dream on if we get 10 points out of our last games we will have done well.we only play two sides below us now and all will be playing for survival.the points tally is so close that we will all be biting our nails till the game with Walsall is over.stevedawson

stevedawson wrote:
Dream on if we get 10 points out of our last games we will have done well.we only play two sides below us now and all will be playing for survival.the points tally is so close that we will all be biting our nails till the game with Walsall is over.

I agree that gaining TEN or more points (from the 27 available) may indeed be an exceptional "Dream" performance; which might even take us into the top half of the table; but we have averaged 1.16 points per game even when "playing diabolically" (e.g. if you believe what is written by some in these columns); so + 10 is wholly feasible with nine games to play.

But statistically, we do NOT need ten points to avoid relegation. Merely seven; or at worst eight points will do; as a total of 50 or 51 should comfortably suffice for safety. By contrast; those currently in the drop zone need to consistently achieve 'play-off' form and over 1.5 average points per game for their remaining eight (or nine) games to reach 51; and there is a great old saying "when being chased by a lion; you don't need to outrun it; only your slowest pals".

So why is everything negatively focussed on the prospect of our relegation posted in these columns about the need to win at HOME? It would obviously be good if we could win at home more often; and it is true that we do only play two sides below us at Home (Tranmere and Oldham). However; why ignore that we also pay three sides below us Away from home (Stevenage; Notts County and Crewe)? If we can't pick up (say) five or six points from these five games we perhaps deserve to be relegated. We then need merely a couple of points from our FOUR other games to be safe; and Walsall are rock bottom of the form tables.

Those that travel with the U's each week will tell you were are perfectly capable of picking up AWAY points even against the top teams when on the road. We have LOST only 6 of 17 away matches (lost 8 from 20 at home). So avoiding relegation doesn't have to be about us "winning" at HOME One win; four gritty draws and four defeats (from nine game) will probably do. But if we gain just two wins from nine we are pretty well home and dry. Avoiding defeats and picking up points is all that we have to do; when others MUST win. We have avoided defeat on 23 of 37 occasions. So why are some people so negatively predicting certain relegation which is already (statistically) MOST unlikely?

[quote][p][bold]stevedawson[/bold] wrote:
Dream on if we get 10 points out of our last games we will have done well.we only play two sides below us now and all will be playing for survival.the points tally is so close that we will all be biting our nails till the game with Walsall is over.[/p][/quote]I agree that gaining TEN or more points (from the 27 available) may indeed be an exceptional "Dream" performance; which might even take us into the top half of the table; but we have averaged 1.16 points per game even when "playing diabolically" (e.g. if you believe what is written by some in these columns); so + 10 is wholly feasible with nine games to play.
But statistically, we do NOT need ten points to avoid relegation. Merely seven; or at worst eight points will do; as a total of 50 or 51 should comfortably suffice for safety. By contrast; those currently in the drop zone need to consistently achieve 'play-off' form and over 1.5 average points per game for their remaining eight (or nine) games to reach 51; and there is a great old saying "when being chased by a lion; you don't need to outrun it; only your slowest pals".
So why is everything negatively focussed on the prospect of our relegation posted in these columns about the need to win at HOME? It would obviously be good if we could win at home more often; and it is true that we do only play two sides below us at Home (Tranmere and Oldham). However; why ignore that we also pay three sides below us Away from home (Stevenage; Notts County and Crewe)? If we can't pick up (say) five or six points from these five games we perhaps deserve to be relegated. We then need merely a couple of points from our FOUR other games to be safe; and Walsall are rock bottom of the form tables.
Those that travel with the U's each week will tell you were are perfectly capable of picking up AWAY points even against the top teams when on the road. We have LOST only 6 of 17 away matches (lost 8 from 20 at home). So avoiding relegation doesn't have to be about us "winning" at HOME One win; four gritty draws and four defeats (from nine game) will probably do. But if we gain just two wins from nine we are pretty well home and dry. Avoiding defeats and picking up points is all that we have to do; when others MUST win. We have avoided defeat on 23 of 37 occasions. So why are some people so negatively predicting certain relegation which is already (statistically) MOST unlikely?Noah4x4

Agreed the team came back well thanks to a combination of Bristol sitting back and defending too deep and the substitutions made by each side. The U's still have to learn a game is for 90+ minutes and they have to start and finish games on the front foot.

Agreed the team came back well thanks to a combination of Bristol sitting back and defending too deep and the substitutions made by each side. The U's still have to learn a game is for 90+ minutes and they have to start and finish games on the front foot.BlueandWhiteBaz

United we stand wrote:
60 minutes of nothing-ness so the final rally and unlikely share of the spoils seemed very welcome.
Very tough away games coming up.
We are hanging on to League 1 status by our fingernails.

I think we can be far more confident than correspondents above might suggest; despite some tough games ahead. There is no mathematical comparison with the “hanging on by our fingernails” finish of last season; albeit that we cannot be complacent. Let’s consider the available data;

This season after 37 games; the U’s (16th) have 43 points and a goal difference of minus 5. Last season after 37 games; the U’s (19th) had 39 points and a goal difference of minus 20.

This season; after playing 37 games; the best placed relegation zone situated Carlisle are on 38 points and goal difference of -22; which is exactly the same as (eventually relegated) Scunthorpe in 2012-13 (having GD of -21). One can see our clear advantage; but what does this mean in terms of required form and residual games?

Our current five point advantage may seem slim; and little more than last season’s single point at this very same stage; but it has to be put in the wider context of a (statistically) rather strange season. However; the U’s 2013-14 superior (+ 17 goal) difference alone is worth a full point; and hence we already have the equivalent of two wins (six points) advantage over those in the current drop zone. With as few as 8 games left for many; just pulling back these six points to play catch up is challenging.

Perhaps the real question is what will it take for THEM to avoid relegation? That's where the wider 2013-14 season's statistics become intriguing....

Occupying an automatic promotion slot (as at today’s table) requires 79 points; when last season; it was merely 65 points at this same stage. The top three teams in 2013-14 (Wolves; Orient; Brentford) have been smashing all before them. One can hence (today) be in the top half of the division with merely 45 points; when last season it required 51 points at this same stage. With points per game being far harder to achieve for the majority; that makes our current five point advantage over the bottom four a little more significant than normal; but in the wrong circumstances (like if we lost all nine remaining games) it obviously remains slim. So what will it take to avoid relegation?

Although it required 51 points in 2012-13; it required merely 50 (or less) points in each of the previous five years (n.b. as few as 48 points in 2010-11). Given the data above; it will be interesting to see the end result; as all the other data may suggest it may be the lower. But the higher 51 should suffice for this quick appraisal. 51 would mean that the U's now need a further 8 points from the 27 available to be certain; and surely that is realistic given that we do have to play five teams below us?

But crucially we also do have a game in hand over four of the eight teams below us; when last year we didn’t (except over Bury who by now were almost already doomed). A bit like a wickets in hand in a T20 cricket Duckworth-Lewis calculation; having games in hand PLUS points PLUS goal difference mean that the mathematics after each game played will increasingly favour the teams that have already secured the greater points.

Simply to avoid relegation (and hence get to 51 points) ANY team currently in the current bottom FIVE having NINE games to play will now need greater than 1.33 points per remaining game and those on 37 games located in the drop zone already need AT LEAST 1.55 per game. Those in the drop zone having already played 38 now need 1.75 points per game. To put this into perspective; any more than 1.5 points per game is ‘play-off form’ and to sustain that for 17% (or more) of the season is challenging. Even if one team does perform this miracle; the greater likelihood is that Crewe or Oldham (also having played 38 and having fewer points than the U's) are the more likely to be dragged into the mire than us.

By contrast; the U's only need 0.88 points per game; which is little over HALF what any of those in the relegation zone now need. We have also achieved 1.16 per game to date; and that is having played all of the top half of the table twice except for Wolves; Peterborough and Walsall .

The comforting conclusion must surely be that we can't play any worse than we have in what many will consider a dire season? So we WON'T go down.

What an excellent blog. Well done on studying the numbers. I came out with a similar premise for survival by simply calculating how many teams are below us in the league. When I looked at the league table at half time (and based on up to the minute updates) we were 4 points above the relegation zone. Even though a couple of teams below us were winning, some were losing and others drawing. So with out me getting deeper into this, I feel that if we can avoid 4 defeats on the bounce anytime soon , then we will avoid relegation comfortably.

By the way, I love the way that 'clan negative' don't even respond to your logical arguement any more. They simply put up with it.

[quote][p][bold]Noah4x4[/bold] wrote:
[quote][p][bold]United we stand[/bold] wrote:
60 minutes of nothing-ness so the final rally and unlikely share of the spoils seemed very welcome.
Very tough away games coming up.
We are hanging on to League 1 status by our fingernails.[/p][/quote]I think we can be far more confident than correspondents above might suggest; despite some tough games ahead. There is no mathematical comparison with the “hanging on by our fingernails” finish of last season; albeit that we cannot be complacent. Let’s consider the available data;
This season after 37 games; the U’s (16th) have 43 points and a goal difference of minus 5. Last season after 37 games; the U’s (19th) had 39 points and a goal difference of minus 20.
This season; after playing 37 games; the best placed relegation zone situated Carlisle are on 38 points and goal difference of -22; which is exactly the same as (eventually relegated) Scunthorpe in 2012-13 (having GD of -21). One can see our clear advantage; but what does this mean in terms of required form and residual games?
Our current five point advantage may seem slim; and little more than last season’s single point at this very same stage; but it has to be put in the wider context of a (statistically) rather strange season. However; the U’s 2013-14 superior (+ 17 goal) difference alone is worth a full point; and hence we already have the equivalent of two wins (six points) advantage over those in the current drop zone. With as few as 8 games left for many; just pulling back these six points to play catch up is challenging.
Perhaps the real question is what will it take for THEM to avoid relegation? That's where the wider 2013-14 season's statistics become intriguing....
Occupying an automatic promotion slot (as at today’s table) requires 79 points; when last season; it was merely 65 points at this same stage. The top three teams in 2013-14 (Wolves; Orient; Brentford) have been smashing all before them. One can hence (today) be in the top half of the division with merely 45 points; when last season it required 51 points at this same stage. With points per game being far harder to achieve for the majority; that makes our current five point advantage over the bottom four a little more significant than normal; but in the wrong circumstances (like if we lost all nine remaining games) it obviously remains slim. So what will it take to avoid relegation?
Although it required 51 points in 2012-13; it required merely 50 (or less) points in each of the previous five years (n.b. as few as 48 points in 2010-11). Given the data above; it will be interesting to see the end result; as all the other data may suggest it may be the lower. But the higher 51 should suffice for this quick appraisal. 51 would mean that the U's now need a further 8 points from the 27 available to be certain; and surely that is realistic given that we do have to play five teams below us?
But crucially we also do have a game in hand over four of the eight teams below us; when last year we didn’t (except over Bury who by now were almost already doomed). A bit like a wickets in hand in a T20 cricket Duckworth-Lewis calculation; having games in hand PLUS points PLUS goal difference mean that the mathematics after each game played will increasingly favour the teams that have already secured the greater points.
Simply to avoid relegation (and hence get to 51 points) ANY team currently in the current bottom FIVE having NINE games to play will now need greater than 1.33 points per remaining game and those on 37 games located in the drop zone already need AT LEAST 1.55 per game. Those in the drop zone having already played 38 now need 1.75 points per game. To put this into perspective; any more than 1.5 points per game is ‘play-off form’ and to sustain that for 17% (or more) of the season is challenging. Even if one team does perform this miracle; the greater likelihood is that Crewe or Oldham (also having played 38 and having fewer points than the U's) are the more likely to be dragged into the mire than us.
By contrast; the U's only need 0.88 points per game; which is little over HALF what any of those in the relegation zone now need. We have also achieved 1.16 per game to date; and that is having played all of the top half of the table twice except for Wolves; Peterborough and Walsall .
The comforting conclusion must surely be that we can't play any worse than we have in what many will consider a dire season? So we WON'T go down.[/p][/quote]What an excellent blog. Well done on studying the numbers. I came out with a similar premise for survival by simply calculating how many teams are below us in the league. When I looked at the league table at half time (and based on up to the minute updates) we were 4 points above the relegation zone. Even though a couple of teams below us were winning, some were losing and others drawing. So with out me getting deeper into this, I feel that if we can avoid 4 defeats on the bounce anytime soon , then we will avoid relegation comfortably.
By the way, I love the way that 'clan negative' don't even respond to your logical arguement any more. They simply put up with it.super waluigi