Wednesday, March 20, 2013

640pm EDT - #16 LIU-Brooklyn (20-13) vs. #16 James Madison (20-14): Wednesday evening’s opener pits the Blackbirds of LIU-Brooklyn versus the Dukes of James Madison, with the winner moving on to face #1 Indiana on Friday.Both of these teams pulled off upsets in their conference tournaments with LIUB taking the America East automatic bid from regular season champ Stony Brook, while the Colonial regular season champ Northeastern was bested in their conference tourney by JMU.These two teams haven’t met since December of 2000 when the Dukes polished off a back to back/home and home series win over the Blackbirds.One concern for JMU this evening is the status of their leading scorer & rebounder Rayshawn Goins, who was arrested on Sunday for disorderly conduct – he will miss the first half of tonight's game. Goins not playing in the first half of tonight's game is a big blow to the Dukes chances of marching on as they are already on the short end of the stick as far as talent goes in this matchup.Speaking of that talent edge, LIUB is led by the dynamic duo of Jamal Olasewere (18.9/8.5) & Julian Boyd (18.5/6.1), who will cause a ton of issues for the Dukes this evening, even if Goins was available for all 40 minutes - which he is not.Both teams are close to .500 on road/neutral courts this year, so that particular metric will not have any impact tonight.The Blackbirds will look to run, run and run some more as they averaged 79.5ppg on the season, and scored 90+ in their last four & six of their last eight games; JMU on the other hand isn’t necessarily a team looking to slow the pace to a crawl, but they also are not as up tempo as the Blackbirds.The overall statistics do not favor either team; however, the away splits do favor LIUB on the offensive end where they are shooting 47.9% from the field vs. JMU’s 38.1%.The Blackbirds offense seems to be the key to this matchup – if LIUB gets out running, speeds the tempo up, and scores 80+ it will be difficult for the Dukes to match that – especially without Goins for the first 20 minutes; JMU has only scored 80+ in a non-OT game twice all season.With all that information in mind, and with this number set at a Pick, I will back the Blackbirds of LIUB to pick up this opening round win tonight.

~915pm EDT - #11 Boise State (21-10) vs. #11 LaSalle (21-9): in the final “First Four” game of the 2013 NCAA Tournament we have a meeting featuring teams from opposite sides of the country when the Broncos of Boise State meet the Explorers of LaSalle.Neither team routinely reaches the NCAA Tournament as LaSalle is making its first appearance since 1992; while Boise State is making its second appearance since 1994 (other was 2008).Both teams enter this game with similar SU streaks of 1-2 over their last three, and 5-3 over their last eight.LaSalle will be without starting C Steve Zack, who has not played double figure minutes since February 24; Boise State’s starting C Kenny Buckner is listed as probable with an injury to his teeth.Statistically speaking this game features two teams that are very similar when breaking down performance using “overall “& “away” splits; however, when examining the “last 5” split, Boise State has an advantage defensively.Boise State has held their last five opponents to just 40.1% from the field, while LaSalle has not played as strong defensively yielding 49.1%.When taking into account BSU’s last five games included four vs. tournament teams, while LaSalle’s only featured a pair, those statistical advantages speak volumes as far as defense goes.I have watched many LaSalle games this season and can certainly speak to their weakness defensively – and defense is very important come tournament time.In addition to BSU’s edge defensively rebounding should be another edge for the Broncos, as they have outrebounded their opponents on average through the season, while LaSalle comes up negative in that area.For all those reasons I am backing Boise State in this matchup, my strongest selection of the First Four, to take care of the Explorers with relative ease in a somewhat higher scoring game.

That covers the First Four action for 2013.Check back tomorrow morning when I post the results of my Simulations, where I used Sagarin, RPI, BPI & KenPom ratings to play out each game of the tournament 1,000 times, giving me % chances each team has at advancing in the bracket.

In addition, over the next 4 days I will post thoughts on the action we have seen thus far, and early next week will review the first three rounds, and start previewing the Sweet 16!Enjoy the games folks, I know I will – it’s one of the best times of the entire year!

Tuesday, March 19, 2013

The NCAA Tournament is upon us, commencing this evening with a pair of “First Four Games”, to be followed by two more tomorrow evening.Quite often these games do not get any recognition or analysis because many assume these teams have no chance at advancing deep into the tourney – that is probably a correct assumption, however, for those that wager on college basketball, these games present money making opportunities just like every other matchup.With that in mind let’s break these games down, and see who has the edge.

640pm EDT - #16 Liberty (15-20) vs. #16 North Carolina A&T (19-16): in a matchup of perhaps the two worst teams in the Field of 68 the Flames of Liberty face the Aggies of NC A&T, with the winner moving on to meet #1 overall seed Louisville.There are rarely lines offered on these team’s games, but when they were posted Liberty was 5-3 while NC A&T was a robust 7-0.One key area that should always be focused on when breaking down any games, but especially neutral court games is each team’s record away from home; in this case Liberty was 5-11 road & 2-2 neutral for 7-13 total, while NC A&T was 5-12 road & 5-1 neutral for 10-13 total – small edge for NC A&T there.Looking a little closer at each team it appears the Aggies have some trouble scoring the ball: they made 19 or less baskets in 7 of their last 9 games, the only two they made more were the SF and F of their conference tournament…on the season they are shooting just 39.6% from the field, along with 30.2% from 3pt land – clearly not a strong offensive ball club.On the flip side offensively Liberty is more consistent and flat out better, as they hit less than 22 shots only once in their last 8 games, while shooting 42.2% from the field and 36.7% from the 3pt line this season.At the FT line Liberty has a relatively significant edge shooting 73.3% on the season while A&T is down at 65.6%.On the other side of the ball, defensively, NC A&T has just about the same edge as Liberty does offensively.In addition to those areas neither team has a positive rebound margin.With the matchup seemingly break-even using those stats I decided to dig deeper, and examine some Ken Pom figures, which adjust performance based on opponents and pace.Using KP’s figures the Flames have rankings of #184 off / #303 def, while NC A&T checks in at #317 off / #81 def – we can see from these rankings A&T’s defense could very well be the difference in this game, as it is the strongest unit in this matchup.Along with that, even though the Aggies offense is not rated very high, they will be facing a defense that is almost equally as inept at preventing their opponents from scoring the ball.With all that information I would lean towards backing the favorite North Carolina A&T, but this would not be a strong enough selection to be released to clients – especially because we are backing the favorite.

~915pm EDT - #11 St. Mary’s (27-6) vs. #11 Middle Tennessee State (28-5): in the nightcap of night #1 a pair of mid-majors clash when the Gaels and Blue Raiders tangle in Dayton for the right to move on and face fellow mid-major Memphis Thursday.Many analysts across the country had either or both of these teams not earning bids, but they both wound up sneaking into the field as two of the last four teams invited – now it’s their chance to prove they belong, especially Middle Tennessee State who pummeled the Sun Belt conference all season before suffering a near fatal early exit from the conference tournament last week.On the other side is NCAA Tournament familiar face St. Mary’s, who with 2013’s bid has reached the dance in 3 straight seasons, and four of the last five.Neither team had any issues whatsoever playing on road/neutral sites this year as STM is 11-5 while MTST is 13-5.Both teams were 50% winners as measured by ATS success, so neither has an edge there as far as being over or under valued in the eyes of Vegas.Since a loss to Northern Iowa on December 23 St. Mary’s has only lost to one team – Gonzaga – who beat the Gaels three times, earning the clean sweep including taking the conference tournament final last week.In addition to those four losses STM lost to Georgia Tech & Pacific on neutral sites at a holiday tournament during Thanksgiving.MTST has a similar story on their season – since losing @ Arkansas State on 1/3 they ran the table before losing in the SBT to Florida International 61-57; prior to those two losses they were knocked off @ Belmont big, @ Akron in OT, and by 21 on a neutral floor to Florida.So of their five losses on the season two were in OT, and another was by 4pts in their conference tournament – a solid resume despite the fact they don’t have many “solid” victories to hang their hat on.Breaking down this matchup statistically doesn’t yield too many edges to speak of overall, but using the away games split favors STM both offensively & defensively.The Gaels are +3.8% in off FG& +2.3% in def FG% - both are relatively sizeable advantages.Both teams are strong rebounding wise, and can shoot the 3 and FT above average.There are two additional edges that favor the Gaels tonight: one being Matthew Dellavadova & two being the experience this team has since they have taken part and won games in the NCAA Tournament over the last few seasons.A lot of me wants to take Middle Tennessee State in this game because I believe they deserved to receive a bid, and with a loss I feel they will be given an even tougher time than now – especially if they came out with a bad performance.However, when you want to make money you must use your head, and not your emotions – and for that reason, and everything discussed above, I will back St. Mary’s to dispatch MTST and move on to face the Memphis Tigers Thursday.

Check back tomorrow for a breakdown of James Madison vs. LIU Brooklyn & Boise State vs. LaSalle.

Friday, March 15, 2013

Now that the regular season is complete we can get a firm field on what the Field of 68 will look like come Sunday.In this analysis teams will be grouped in a couple sections, clearly labeled at the top of each.Here is what the Field looks like as of today:

(31) AUTOMATIC BIDS [teams underlined, highlighted and in bold have sealed their bid]

America East: Vermont

Atlantic 10: St. Louis

ACC: Duke

Atlantic Sun: Florida Gulf Coast

Big 12: Kansas

Big East: Louisville

Big Sky: Montana

Big South: Charleston SouthernLiberty

Big 10: Indiana

Big West: Long Beach State

Colonial: NortheasternJames Madison

Conference USA: Memphis

Horizon: Valparaiso

Ivy: Harvard

MAAC: Iona

MAC: Ohio

MEAC: Norfolk StateMorgan State

Missouri Valley: Creighton

Mountain West: New Mexico

Northeast: LIU Brooklyn

Ohio Valley: Belmont

Pac 12: Arizona

Patriot: Bucknell

SEC: Florida

Southern: Davidson

Southland: Stephen F. Austin

SWAC: Southern

Summit: South Dakota State

Sun Belt: Western Kentucky

West Coast: Gonzaga

WAC: Louisiana TechNew Mexico State

(29) LOCKS FOR AT-LARGE BIDS – these teams are LOCKS to be in the Field of 68.Teams are listed in strength order within conferences – for example, VCU is currently rated higher than Butler in our opinion (Big East order shifted some since last edition).Three new teams were added since last version, and they are bold & highlighted:

(9) TEAMS THAT NEED MORE WINS IN THEIR CONF. TOURNAMENT TO EARN A BID [RPI]

A10: Temple [36], LaSalle [39], UMass [57]

ACC: Virginia [66]

CUSA: Southern Mississippi [38]

SEC: Tennessee [54], Kentucky [50], Alabama [62], Ole Miss [56]

(5) TEAMS ELIMINATED FROM THEIR CONF. TOURNAMENT BUT STILL ALIVE TO EARN A BID [RPI]

B10: Minnesota [30]

MWC: Boise State [43]

P12: Colorado [39], California [54]

SB: Middle Tennessee State [31]

AUTOMATIC BIDS: 31

LOCKS: 29

60 of 68 BIDS ARE LOCKED UP AS OF GAMES PLAYED ON 3/14

TEAMS STILL ALIVE IN THEIR CONF. TOURNAMENT & NEED MORE WINS: 9

TEAMS ELIMINATED FROM THEIR CONF. TOURNAMENT BUT REMAIN ON BUBBLE: 5

We currently show 60 LOCKS to earn a bid, with 14 additional teams in the mix for the last 8 open spots.Nine of the fourteen teams in the mix to earn one of those final bids are still in action, having not been eliminated from their conference tournament so they currently have the inside track at earning those last bids.But after tonight’s action its likely many of those teams will have lost today, cementing their resume, and placing them into the second bucket that currently has 5 bubble teams whose seasons are complete.

As of today’s analysis here are the EIGHT TEAMS we are including to round out the FIELD OF 68 (listed in order with Temple being the 61st team & Virginia being the final 68th team):

#61: Temple

#62: California

#63: LaSalle

#64: Colorado

#65: Tennessee

#66: Boise State

#67: Minnesota

#68: Virginia

First Six OUT:

#69: Kentucky

#70: Middle Tennessee State

#71: Southern Mississippi

#72: Ole Miss

#73: Alabama

#74: UMass

CONFERENCE TOURNAMENTS BREAKDOWN & ANALYSIS – here we will UPDATE each conference tournament where bubble teams will be taking part, and attempting to set some goals for each team to earn their own at-large bid.

A10: Temple & LaSalle can almost cement their status as NCAA Tournament teams by winning their QF matchup with UMass & Butler, respectively.UMass is the only other A10 team that remains in the mix to earn an at-large bid, and it seems they need to beat Temple today, and also take down the winner of VCU/St. Joseph’s (PA) tomorrow to place themselves firmly in the mix & discussion.That means the Minutemen need at least a Championship Game appearance to feel good about their status come Sunday.

ACC: Virginia is the only team in the mix that has not locked up their bid, and today they face NC State in basically a must-win situation.If the Cavaliers win that game they are almost certainly a lock to be dancing; should they lose they will be amongst the last four in or first four out, depending on what occurs across the country over the next 48 hours.

B10: Minnesota lost to Illinois and is the only bubble team from the B10.Although their RPI is solid at #30 they are just 8-11 in Big Ten play, which really stands out in a negative way, despite that conference generally regarded as the toughest all season long.The Golden Gophers are clearly on the bubble, and will be watching a lot of television over the next 2 days as they cannot afford many, if any, bid stealing opportunities, especially an Iowa Big Ten Tournament championship – which would almost certainly leave them on the outside looking in come Sunday.

CUSA: Southern Miss took care of business in their opener beating UAB 81-66; next up is a solid UTEP team.No question the Golden Eagles need a win there – if they pick up that win they either need to face Memphis in the Championship Game and play better than they did in the two meetings between these schools during the regular season, or if Tulsa beats Memphis they flat out need to beat Tulsa and take home the conference’s automatic bid.

MWC: with San Diego State beating Boise State in the QF’s the Broncos are the lone MWC team sitting on the bubble, their fate clearly not defined at this moment in time.Very much like Minnesota BSU needs to actively watch the rest of the conference’s across the country, and hope for minimal upsets/bid stealing situations.It seems the Broncos will be either last four in or first four out – which side of the line they fall on will have a lot to do with the results over the next 48 hours from conferences across the country.

P12: with Utah stringing together a pair of wins the last two nights and now facing Oregon in the SF round some damage has been done to California, who lost to the Utes last night in OT 79-69.Also on the bubble in our opinion is Colorado, who sits at 21-11/10-8/#39 RPI; they were eliminated by Arizona yesterday and now will be forced to sit around and hope they have done enough during the regular season to warrant inclusion in the NCAA Tournament.Four Top 50 wins definitely helps their cause; however, typically P12 teams that post just a 10-8 mark in conference play are left off the dance card – will be interesting to see what happens with the Buffs & Golden Bears come Sunday.We believe at least one of the two will earn a bid, and there is a better than 50% chance both are included.

SEC: since the QF round is today nothing has changed from our bullet point analysis that was posted earlier this week.As a reminder this is where each team stands, and what they need to accomplish to secure a bid 100%:

#5 Tennessee: beat Alabama in the QF, and have a good showing/beat Florida/LSU winner respectively in the SF round

#4 Alabama: beat Tennessee & likely Florida/LSU winner to earn a bid.If LSU beats Florida they may need to play solid in the Championship Game as well.

#3 Ole Miss: needs to win the bottom half of the draw which means an appearance in the SEC Championship Game

#2 Kentucky: like Ole Miss needs to either win the bottom half of the bracket, or win their QF matchup vs. Vandy and have a good showing vs. Missouri (if Mizzou was to beat A&M/Auburn then Ole Miss).They cannot afford a win in their QF game followed by a loss to Ole Miss.

Wednesday, March 13, 2013

Well an exciting 2012-2013 NCAA basketball regular season is in the books, and we now move on to a week of conference tournament action, followed by the postseason tournaments – highlighted of course by the NCAA Tournament.But before we reach Selection Sunday there is a lot of action to play out including the AQ/BCS conference tournaments – in today’s article we will focus on the Grand Daddy of them All, the Big East Tournament!

Recent Winners: 2012 – Michigan State ; 2011 – Ohio State ; 2010 – Ohio State ; 2009 – Purdue ; 2008 – Wisconsin.Over the last five years the B10 has sent 3 teams to the Final Four (2009 Michigan State runner-up, 2010 Michigan State, 2012 Ohio State) but none of the conference tournament champions advanced the deep into the NCAA Tournament.

NCAA Tournament Impact: 5 teams (IND, MICH, MSU, OSU, WISC) are likely to earn bids in the field, while Minnesota & Illinois both finished at 8-10 in conference play.Both of those teams would feel a lot more secure with their at-large hopes if they were able to secure one win in this tournament; unfortunately they play each other in the 1st round.

Analysis: the Big Ten was regarded as the toughest conference for most of the ’12-’13 regular season, which should lead to a very exciting postseason tournament in Chicago this weekend.The Michigan Wolverines are the only team of the 5 locks for the big dance that is playing in the 1st round; however, a hugely critical game will kick-start this tourney when #8 Illinois faces #9 Minnesota.There are many opinions on whether these two teams are already in the Field of 68, or if they have more work to be done – but what is sure is only one of these teams can win this game, leaving the loser at a perilous mark of 8-11 during Big Ten play.I feel the Illini are a better team than Minnesota, who has been really up & down all season long, especially on the road – and give the edge in this game to Illinois.The Illini winning this matchup is probably the best case scenario for the entire league as the Gophers probably have the stronger resume, and a better chance at earning a bid with a loss than Illinois does.Let’s jump ahead to the QF round, examining each game in more detail:

#1 Indiana vs. #8 Illinois: these teams met once during the regular season on 2/7 in Champaign, and the Illini put together a furious run to close the game to beat then #1 Indiana 74-72 on a brilliant inbounds play in the final second.Indiana enters this tournament just 2-2 SU over their L4, and would like to get on a roll as we head into the big dance.Illinois would be feeling good about itself should they beat Minnesota in the opening round because that victory would seal up their NCAA Tournament bid.Considering those two points, that Indiana is working with in season revenge, and the fact the Big Ten tournament has been won by the #1 seed in 5 of the last 6 seasons, and I am backing the Hoosiers to take care of the Illini in QF #1.

#2 Ohio State vs. #7 Purdue: no team has dominated the Big Ten Tournament like the Buckeyes who head into the 2013 version on a 4 year streak of reaching the Championship game, winning it all twice.These two teams squared off once during the regular season, in early January, and the Buckeyes escaped West Lafayette with a 74-64 win.After looking suspect in late February OSU has won 5 straight games (including wins over Michigan State & Indiana) to close their regular season; on the flip side Purdue closed 3-2, but did beat Wisconsin & Minnesota, and had Michigan on the ropes at home before blowing the game late.This looks like a tough task for the Boilermakers, although I feel on a neutral court this game will be a lot closer than the experts think – Purdue will mix it up physically with anyone, which should lead to a close, low scoring game.

#3 Michigan State vs. #6 Iowa: MSU has typically not done as well in the B10 Tournament as they do in the NCAA Tournament, as the Spartans have only reached the Championship Game ONCE since 2001 (and that once was last season when they won the conference’s automatic bid).This season MSU has overachieved in many people’s eyes, posting a 24-7 overall record, and only losing one game all season by more than 8 points (13 @ Minnesota in a game that was very close in the final 2 minutes, but foul shots extended the final margin of victory) – we know Sparty is solid, and will be in almost any game down to the wire – which is why they are so successful in the NCAA Tournament.Iowa on the other hand was able to finish conference play 9-9, ahead of both Illinois & Minnesota, but needs to at least reach the B10 Final to have any hopes are receiving an at-large bid – and quite frankly I think that’s very possible.Iowa closed their regular season going 6-2, and looking back further there were numerous close losses that could have easily flipped their way & they may have secured an at-large bid already: loss by 4 vs. Indiana, loss by 3 vs. Michigan State, loss by 3 in OT @ Purdue, loss by 3 @ Minnesota, loss by 4 in double OT @ Wisconsin, loss by 4 @ Nebraska – 6 games lost by 4pts or less in conference play.These teams only met once during the regular season, highlighted above – which only gives the Hawkeyes that extra revenge incentive to handle business here.With the Spartans typically not playing their best ball in the B10 Tournament, and a hungry revenge minded Hawkeyes team, I am backing Iowa to beat Michigan State and reach the SF round.

#4 Wisconsin vs. #5 Michigan: in the last QF of Friday the Wolverines and Badgers are likely to match up for the second time this season.Their first meeting was a memorable one in Madison as the Badgers came out on top 65-62 in OT following a half court 3PT make as time expired to push the game to OT, where Wisky held on.Michigan, who at one time reached #1 in the polls, really struggled since the calendar turned to February: they were 20-1 in Nov/Dec/Jan, but just 5-5 in Feb/Mar.However, on a good note, most of those losses were of the close variety to good teams as on the season they too (like their upstate rivals) had just one loss by more than 8pts (23pt loss @ Michigan State), and 3 of their 6 losses were by just one possession.The Badgers closed out their regular season 7-3 SU over their last 10 including wins over Michigan & Ohio State – so it could certainly be argued they are the hotter team heading into this potential matchup.Michigan has not made a title game appearance in the B10 tournament since beating Purdue to win the championship in 1998; they have reached the SF round in each of the L2 years however.Wisconsin has reached the SF round twice in the L5 years (2012 & 2008), advancing to the Championship Game just once in that time period when they won it all in 2008 over Illinois.I like this Michigan team, and think they have a solid shot at reaching the FF.But first things first, they would like to get on a roll at the United Center – and picking up their second win in as many nights to reach the SF’s would be a great start.

Those results would leave us with a Friday Night SF round of #1 Indiana vs. #5 Michigan followed by #2 Ohio State vs. #6 Iowa.Here is how I would see those games shaking out, which would feature a trio of teams that have Final Four aspirations, along with the upstart Iowa Hawkeyes, who could have an at-large bid on the line vs. Ohio State.

#1 Indiana vs. #5 Michigan: we all remember their first meeting this season, February 2nd in Bloomington when then #1 Michigan went down to then #3 Indiana 81-73.The rematch was played on the final Saturday of the regular season, and this time #2 Indiana went into Chrysler and narrowly nipped #7 Michigan 72-71 in an absolute barn-burner.These two schools have been amongst the handful of best teams in the country all season, and played two absolute classics during the regular season – so it’s only right they meet one more time (or could more be in the future?), on a neutral court, in the B10 SF’s.We all know by now Indiana secured their first outright Big Ten title for the first time since 1992-1993; what’s more, the Hoosiers have not won the B10 Tournament since its inception in 1998!They have reached the SF round four times (’01, ’02, ’03, ’06), and only advanced to the Championship Game once (2001) before losing to Iowa.The Wolverines success, or lack thereof, in the B10 Tournament is very similar to that of IU: UM has reached the SF round the same four times (’98, ’04, ’11, ’12), and only advanced to the Championship Game once (1998) where they won it all over Purdue.So neither team will be familiar with the success or bright lights of the Big Ten Tournament SF’s!But make no mistake, both of these teams are among the best in America, and will handle the spotlight quite well.Because the Hoosiers won both regular season meetings I lean towards backing the Wolverines here, as Michigan will advance and make their first B10 Championship Game appearance since 1998!

#2 Ohio State vs. #6 Iowa: if this matchup were to come to fruition many teams across the country currently residing on the bubble would be tuning in and rooting for the Buckeyes hard core!These teams also only met once during the regular season: 1/22 @ Ohio State where the Buckeyes won 72-63.OSU shot the ball much better than Iowa in that game, but an area that really stood out favoring the Hawkeyes was their 19 offensive rebounds in that game.Iowa is ranked #14 in the country rebounding the basketball, and success on the glass is critical to their chances of winning games against ranked teams because they are more times than not on the short end of the stick as far as talent goes.Ohio State is ranked just #119 in rebounds, and truly doesn’t excel in any area as far as statistics are measured.Despite the run the Buckeyes went on to close their regular season I am just not a huge fan of this squad, and with an extra hungry Iowa team meeting the Buckeyes here, combined with in season revenge, and the fact OSU has advanced to the Championship Game in each of the last 4 years, they are long overdue for a correction of sorts, and a new team will shot up on Sunday afternoon for the Championship Game.Iowa takes out Ohio State by crashing the glass, and taking care of the basketball.

That would leave us with a Sunday afternoon Championship Game between #5 Michigan vs. #6 Iowa, which would be quite a difference from the usual at the B10 Tournament where favorites typically roll & advance: the #1 seed has reached the Final in 8 of the L9 championships, and 9 of the 15 tournaments since inception; the #2 seed has reached the Final in 7 of 15 tournaments; the #1 or #2 seed has appeared in 12 of 15 tournaments, with the three outliers being 2009 #5 vs. #3, 2001 #4 vs. #6, and 1998 #4 vs. #3.That tournament has been chalk city baby, but not this season!My projection of #5 vs. #6 would be the highest total seeds to reach the Final since this tournament commenced in 1998.

#5 Michigan vs. #6 Iowa: what a final this would set up, with no teams that drew a first round bye reaching the Championship Game!These teams met once during the regular season, way back in each team’s second conference game, and the Wolverines came out on top easily 95-67 at home.It’s not that we can completely throw that game out the window, but it did take place a long time ago, when Michigan was playing like the best team in the country, and before Iowa seemingly found its stride recently.Like Ohio State Michigan is not a strong rebounding club, but they did outrebound Iowa in the first meeting between these teams.The biggest edge the Wolverines have over Iowa is scoring the basketball – and that could become a problem for Iowa as they are just not very explosive on the offensive end.Michigan will have a big edge in the backcourt and in scoring punch, and Iowa will be out of gas somewhat after coming up with their big win over Ohio State the night before.Let’s back Michigan to win the B10 Tournament for the first time since the first edition in 1998.

Current Vegas Odds to win the Big East Tournament

Indiana 2/1

Michigan & Michigan State 3/1

Ohio State 4/1

Wisconsin 8/1

Illinois & Minnesota & Purdue 20/1

Iowa 30/1

Penn State & Northwestern & Nebraska 100/1

Examining those odds closely what obviously stands out first is the Iowa Hawkeyes, checking in with the 2nd longest odds 30/1, and I have them projected as reaching the Championship Game.I would certainly recommend a wager on them, while throwing out the bottom trio.As far as the remaining teams go I never see value taking any teams below 5/1 as I prefer to play them on a game to game basis vs. risking hard earned money on such short odds – so let’s eliminate Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State & Ohio State.I do not think Purdue has what it takes to win 4 straight to raise the trophy, but playing whichever team you believe will win between Illinois & Minnesota for small dollars could be a wise investment.Last team not touched on is Wisconsin, and they are probably too short on odds to be worth an investment.In summary, I like a play in Iowa & a small play on either Illinois or Minnesota, depending on which team you believe will advance when they meet tomorrow afternoon (for me, as a reminder, that would be Illinois).

Check back over the next couple days as additional major conference tournament previews are posted!

Tuesday, March 12, 2013

Well an exciting 2012-2013 NCAA basketball regular season is in the books, and we now move on to a week of conference tournament action, followed by the postseason tournaments – highlighted of course by the NCAA Tournament. But before we reach Selection Sunday there is a lot of action to play out including the AQ/BCS conference tournaments – in today’s article we will focus on the Grand Daddy of them All, the Big East Tournament!

Analysis: without question the biggest of the conference tournaments, the 2013 Big East Tournament will be the last version with the conference as we currently know it.Next season the Big East will still be competing, and the BET will still be taking place at MSG, but the teams comprising the conference will be the Catholic 7 plus a few additions that have yet to be finalized.But that is next year – today let’s focus on the excitement that is to be this season’s championship.There was a 3 way tie atop the regular season standings with Georgetown (#1), Louisville (#2), Marquette (#3) finishing at 14-4.Rounding out the top 4 seeds that have earned the “coveted” (or is it?) double bye is Pittsburgh, who finished at 12-6.At the bottom of the conference was DePaul (#14), USF (#13), Seton Hall (#12) & Rutgers (#11) – those four will be facing off this evening with the right to move on to face #5 Syracuse & #6 Notre Dame.Lastly, the middle portion of the bracket has Villanova (#7) who finished 10-8; a pair of .500 teams in Providence (#8) & Cincinnati (#9); and lastly 8-10 St. Johns (#10).It seems very unlikely any seed below #9 reaches the QF’s on Thursday although Syracuse has not played great ball down the stretch to close their regular season.Being that Cincinnati really needs a win if for nothing but confidence as they head into the NCAAT they should be a solid play from a revenge angle to beat upstart Providence in the 2nd round.The QF’s should look like this:

#1 Georgetown vs. #9 Cincinnati: these teams met on 2/15 with the Hoyas coming out on top at Fifth Third Arena in Cincinnati 62-55.The Bearcats really struggled from the field in that matchup shooting just 31.5% from the field & 16.7% on 24 3pt attempts; they also missed 13 FTs.Unfortunately for Cincy their weakness is shooting/scoring as they are rated just #306 in FG%, while KenPom (KP) rates their adjusted offensive efficiency #117 – a poor mark for a major conference team.With the Hoyas checking in #3 in KP defensive efficiency this is not a good matchup for the Bearcats – look for Georgetown to handle business in this QF, in what should be a low scoring, and could be a “closer than they experts think” game.

#2 Louisville vs. #7 Villanova: earlier this season Villanova stunned Louisville 73-64 at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia.Since that loss the Cardinals have gone 10-2 with their pair of losses coming by 2pts @ Georgetown (which was their next game after the Villanova loss) & by 3pts in 5 OT’s @ Notre Dame.Basically, Louisville is currently playing some of its best ball of the season as they look to improve upon last year’s Final Four appearance, along with repeating & winning the BET for the 3rd time in 5 years.Villanova has showed the ability to play up or down to their competition, and could be a giant killer come the NCAAT – however, in this spot, with a revenge minded Cardinals team at MSG, the Wildcats will be hard pressed to pull off another stunner.Give me Louisville in this game in what will likely be the biggest margin of victory of all 4 BET QF matchups.

#3 Marquette vs. #6 Notre Dame: these teams recently met on 3/2 in Milwaukee, and the Golden Eagles won 72-64 after jumping out to a huge first half lead.Marquette enters the BET as one of the hotter teams in the conference not named Georgetown going 6-1 SU over their L7; on the flip side the Fighting Irish are just 5-4 SU over their L9, with 2 of those 5 wins coming in OT+.ND has failed to meet its expectations this season considering they returned everyone of note from a 21-10/13-5 team in 2012 – but it’s not too late to turn things around, and make a run in both the BET & more importantly the NCAAT.I expect to see a revitalized Irish club in the 2013 postseason, leading them to a win here and their fourth straight SF appearance in the BET.

#4 Pittsburgh vs. #5 Syracuse: in the regular season meeting between these clubs the Panthers defended their home court and came out with a 65-55 win vs. then #6 Syracuse.Since that game each team has gone in different directions with the Panthers winning 7 of their last 9 SU, while the Orange closed 1-4 over their last 5, and 3-5 over their last 8 SU.Both of these schools have enjoyed immense success in the BET this century with Pitt appearing in 7 Championship Games since 2001 (but none since winning it all in 2008), while Syracuse has appeared in 3 Championship Games since 2005 winning it all twice.Syracuse is the more talented club and probably more hungry; combine that with the fact the final BET is very important to Boeheim, and the Orange are playing with same season revenge, and you have the ingredients for a very exciting Syracuse win.

Those results would leave us with a Friday Night SF round of #1 Georgetown vs. #5 Syracuse followed by #2 Louisville vs. #6 Notre Dame.The “Final Four” of the BET is one of the most exciting nights of the college basketball season for those that reside in the Northeast Corridor, and having the final one tip off with the third matchup of the season between the Hoyas & Orange would be epic!

#1 Georgetown vs. #5 Syracuse: simply put this would be the one matchup the entire country would probably want to see one more time; yes its perhaps one round too early, but hey, beggars can’t be choosers in this spot!These teams met twice this year with the Hoyas sweeping the Orange – in the first meeting @ Syracuse the Hoyas came in as medium sized underdogs of +7 and beat the Orange SU 57-46 in the Carrier Dome.In the regular season rematch Georgetown was a small favorite but once again had no issues dispatching Cuse 61-39 in one of the worst offensive performances from a Syracuse team in Boeheim’s career.Do you think the Orange may be a little upset after that throttling last week?I think so – and think Syracuse would definitely handle Georgetown if this matchup was to develop…give me the Cuse relatively BIG over the Hoyas in the first SF matchup.

#2 Louisville vs. #6 Notre Dame: both of these squads have played exceptionally well in the BET of late with ND reaching the SF round in each of the last 3 seasons (but they did not advance to the Finals in any of those three years however), while Louisville has been a participant in the Championship Game 3 of the last 4 years, winning it all twice.These teams are known for their OT thrillers over the years, and it happened once again this year as the Irish beat the Cardinals in Rd1 this year in South Bend 104-101 in 5OT!However, in the rematch that just took place 3/9 @ Louisville the Cardinals had no issues taking care of business vs. the visiting Irish, pounding them 73-57.Both of these teams will be used to the spotlight and pressure that is Friday night at the BET – so one big question is which squad is better equipped to handle it?I think this Louisville team is peaking and playing their best basketball of the season right now – just like they did last season which led to a Final Four appearance (which is where I think they are headed this year at a minimum).Give me Louisville taking down ND as the Irish will once again come up just short in their last chance of reaching the BET Final.

That would leave us with a Saturday night Championship Game between #5 Syracuse vs. #2 Louisville – the two teams I think most basketball savvy fans projected as the cream of the Big East crop in 2012-2013.

#5 Syracuse vs. #2 Louisville: although it would be great to see a couple old-school heavyweights from the original Big East square off for the last tournament championship, in my opinion, these are the two best, most talented, best equipped to make a run at a national championship teams in the conference.They have met twice during the regular season, both winning on the opponent’s home floor: 1/19 Syracuse won at Louisville 70-68 & 3/2 Louisville winning in the Dome 58-53.These two squads are very even across the board, and breaking down the statistics from their first two meetings there was not much difference comparing the two.The Cardinals are the #1 defense in the country according to KP, while the Cuse’s vaunted 2/3 matchup zone has them at #10.Louisville is also about 10 spots higher using offensive metrics according to KP – meaning there is a small gap between these two teams with Ville marginally “better” both offensively and defensively according to KP.Both teams have HOF head coaches and enough experience where it will not be a factor either way.On a neutral floor this game should be an absolute classic as I fully expect the Orange to find their groove @ MSG & get back to performing like one of the best teams in the country; Louisville is already there.I am going to give the edge to Syracuse, halting Louisville’s hopes at becoming the first Big East team to win back to back BET’s since the Orange did it themselves in ’05-’06.

In the final Big East Tournament as we have known it, and grown to love it over these last 30+ years, the Syracuse Orange will come out on top, winning their 6th BET crown, which only trails Georgetown & Connecticut who have each hoisted the trophy 7 times since the tourney’s inception.

Current Vegas Odds to win the Big East Tournament

Louisville 2/1

Georgetown 4/1

Pittsburgh & Syracuse 5/1

Marquette 10/1

Notre Dame 18/1

Villanova & Cincinnati 25/1

Providence 60/1

St. Johns 75/1

Rutgers & South Florida 250/1

Seton Hall 350/1

DePaul 750/1

Based on those odds I would eliminate the top & bottom 4 schools – the top 4 are eliminated because there just isn’t enough value there to play those teams (I would rather play game to game on any of those four), while the bottom 4 just simply have zero chance at winning the trophy.Using that strategy leaves us with 6 teams – and of those 6 I would eliminate St. Johns & Providence as I do not feel either of those two is consistent enough on a nightly basis to string together the necessary amount of wins needed to win the championship, along with both teams suffering a lack of depth or injuries which will certainly come into play in this type of layout.That leaves us with Marquette, Notre Dame, Villanova & Cincinnati – four likely NCAA Tournament teams, but with just one combined Big East Tournament Championship (Villanova 1995).Of those four Cincinnati is the only team on the top of the bracket, and keep in mind they advanced to the Championship Game last season before falling to Louisville – in other words, they are in the weaker portion of the draw, and just last year reached the final.The other three squads are in the bottom half of the bracket, with Marquette & Notre Dame likely playing each other in the QF round – meaning one of the two is likely, but not a lock, to reach the SF round.Villanova is also in the bottom half of the draw, but has to get by the host team St John’s (shouldn’t be an issue) followed by a revenge minded Louisville team in the QF round.Despite that fact, because the odds are high and Nova has proven it can play with the best this season, I would suggest action on Marquette 10/1, Notre Dame 18/1, Villanova & Cincinnati 25/1 to win the Big East Tournament – keeping in mind there are hedging opportunities on all four down the road.

Many ask me about hedging – what does that mean, and how can it be done?

Briefly, we would like hold off on hedging Marquette or Notre Dame until the two played in the QF round – unless ND was taken out in the 2nd round, then we would want to protect the original investments in ND & MARQ by hedging and taking either Rutgers or DePaul on huge ML’s when they played Marquette.

On Villanova we could hedge so long as they reached the QF vs. Louisville since their mark of 25/1 is sizeable & leaves a lot of arbitrage opportunity.

Cincinnati is the same story as Villanova, with the fact they are going off at 25/1 really leaving the door open to at least recoup our original investment in them before their game versus Georgetown if we like.

We could also hedge Nova & Cincy in the 2nd round considering their opponents should be decent sized underdogs.For example, let’s use Villanova:

We laid $100 on Villanova to win the BET at a level of +$2,500

We could simply play St. John’s on the ML versus Villanova in the 2nd round at odds approximately +200 (using an estimate but no matter what the line is you can get the math to work with a huge gap between $100 investment & $2,500 upside)

The idea being to risk $50 to win $100 on St. John’s beating Villanova in the 2nd round

That would lead to one of two outcomes:

St John’s upsets Villanova: we lose our original $100 placed on Villanova to win the BET, but we win $100 from the $50 ML wager on St. John’s to beat Villanova – net zero.

Villanova beat St. John’s: we lose our $50 ML wager on St. John’s to beat Villanova in the 2nd round, but we still have the chance to win $2,500 if Villanova wins the BET – net results in maximum payoff on Villanova winning the BET of $2,450

What is key to hedging is you need to have significant odds on the original investment, and also its best to play an underdog as your hedge opposite your original side since that is laying out less money to win back your original outlay (see Villanova/St. John’s example above).

Check back over the next couple days as additional major conference tournament previews are posted!

Monday, March 11, 2013

Now that the regular season is complete we can get a firm field on what the Field of 68 will look like come Sunday, BRACKETOLOGY STYLE.In this analysis teams will be grouped in a couple sections, clearly labeled at the top of each.Here is what the Field looks like as of today:

(31) AUTOMATIC BIDS [teams underlined, highlighted and in bold have sealed their bid]

(25) LOCKS FOR AT-LARGE BIDS – these teams are LOCKS to be in the Field of 68 even with an opening round loss in their conference tournaments.These teams are listed in strength order within conferences – for example, VCU is currently rated higher than Butler in our opinion.

(7) TEAMS THAT WILL LIKELY EARN A BID WITH ONE CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT WIN [RPI] – here we are taking into account matchups by examining each conference’s tournament bracket.

A10: Temple [36]

B12: Iowa State [47]

B10: Minnesota [23], Illinois [42]

MWC: San Diego State [30]

P12: Oregon [52], California [48]

(10) TEAMS THAT LIKELY NEED 2+ WINS IN THEIR CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT TO EARN A BID [RPI] – again, here we are taking into account matchups by examining each conference’s tournament bracket.

A10: LaSalle [39], UMass [57]

ACC: Virginia [66]

CUSA: Southern Mississippi [38]

MWC: Boise State [37]

P12: Colorado [34]

SEC: Tennessee [54], Kentucky [50], Alabama [62], Ole Miss [56]

(1) TEAMS THAT ALREADY LOST IN THEIR CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT BUT REMAIN ON BUBBLE [RPI]

SB: Middle Tennessee State [28]

AUTOMATIC BIDS: 31

LOCKS: 25

56 of 68 BIDS ARE LOCKED UP AS OF GAMES PLAYED ON 3/10

LIKELY “IN” WITH 1 CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT WIN: 7

LIKELY “IN” WITH 2+ CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT WINS: 10

TEAMS THAT ALREADY LOST CONFERENCE TOURNAMENT BUT ON BUBBLE: 1

For this projection we will use the 56 “LOCKS”, the next 7 in the “Likely IN with 1 conference tournament win”, and the following 5 teams to close out the Field of 68: LaSalle, Boise State, Colorado, Tennessee, Kentucky

CONFERENCE TOURNAMENTS BREAKDOWN & ANALYSIS – here we will examine each conference tournament where bubble teams will be taking part, and attempting to set some goals for each team to earn their own at-large bid.

A10: the two areas to follow in this tournament will be the middle portion of the bracket.In the 5/12 matchup Butler will face Dayton with the winner moving on to meet #4 LaSalle.That game will be a must win for LaSalle to keep their at-large hopes alive.In the 6/11 matchup UMass will tangle with George Washington with the winner moving on to face #3 Temple.UMass definitely needs to beat GW & Temple to remain in consideration of receiving an at-large bid.To summarize, there are three teams in the A10 that still have work to do in hopes of earning a bid.#4 LaSalle must win at least one game, and it would be in their best interest if they faced Butler in their opener; if Dayton was to beat Butler in the opening round LaSalle would likely need two wins – which they may need anyway.#3 Temple at worst needs just one more win to cement their status (they may earn a bid even without one more win).Lastly, #6 UMass is on the outside looking in, and has a lot of work to do – for them to really get into the conversation for an at-large berth they most likely need to beat GW, Temple and also win a SF round game vs. #2 VCU (if seeds held).

ACC: there is only one team to follow closely in this tournament as far as NCAA Tournament status, and that team is Virginia, who sports a record of 21-10/11-7, but only has an RPI of #66 along with 7 sub 100 RPI losses.After drawing a bye in the opening round they will face the winner of #5 NC State/#12 Virginia Tech – for their sake hopefully it’s the Wolfpack, and the Cavs must win that game.If they did beat State and reached the SF round it could go either way if they truly “need” another win.For us, a good outing vs. Miami is a must at the very least.If they lost their first game they will likely be relegated to the NIT.

B12: in our opinion, which differs from other analysts out there blogging about bracketology, the only team from this conference that can still earn an at-large bid is Iowa State.Baylor, involved in some people’s brackets at this point in the proceedings, was removed from our projections a few weeks ago, and with a record of 17-13/9-9, and an RPI of #61, they need to secure the conference’s automatic bid to be dancing in 2013.ISU on the other hand needs just one win because of the way the B12 bracket broke, as their opener in the 4/5 game is versus Oklahoma.If the Cyclones beat the Sooners they will have sealed their fate; if they lose that game they are not eliminated from contention, but their berth would be greatly impacted by the performance of other teams; not a preferable way to enjoy their weekend.

B10: Minnesota & Illinois both finished conference play below .500, a significant red mark on their resume.It also just so happens they will face off in the B10 Tournament opening round 8/9 game, with the winner moving on to face #1 Indiana.But the issue here is only one team can win, leaving the loser at 8-11 – perhaps an insurmountable obstacle towards earning an at-large bid.Our thought is the winner seals their bid, while the loser maybe in trouble, especially if the loser is Illinois, whose RPI is ~20 spots worse than Minnesota.

CUSA: Southern Miss has a decent record, and good enough RPI – but where are the big wins?Their best win on the season was November 27th at home vs. Denver; since then their best work was a sweep of RPI #92 East Carolina, hardly resume fodder.For the Golden Eagles to secure their own at-large bid it seems they need to advance to the CUSA Championship Game, and at the very least put up a better fight vs. Memphis than they were able to muster in both regular season contests.Unless they win the conference’s automatic bid it would be in their best interest if Memphis advanced and met them in the title game; otherwise, SMISS will almost certainly be on the outside looking in come Sunday.

MWC: all season this has clearly been one of the better if not the best non-AQ conference, and the payoff could be numerous tickets punched to the NCAA Tournament come Sunday.Right now it seems there are two teams that have not locked up their status just yet, San Diego State & Boise State.Much like the Big Ten, unfortunately, those teams will face off in the opening round Thursday afternoon.The Aztecs are just about in the field – they will likely make an appearance, but at this point they do not 100% own a spot.Boise State still has some work to do, needing at least a win over SD State to keep their hopes alive.For the conference the best thing that could happen is a tight Boise State win over SD State, followed up by the Broncos beating New Mexico in the SF round.One point of note is BSU does not necessarily have to beat New Mexico per say in the SF round – if the Lobos were upset by Wyoming or Nevada that would be fine for BSU – they just need more wins, not necessarily of the top rated variety.

P12: much like recent history the P12 Tournament will be a wide open affair with many team’s hopes of reaching the NCAA Tournament resting on their performance at Staples Center this weekend (keep in mind the #1 or #2 seed has only cut the nets down as conference champion once in the past 6 seasons).Taking a look at the bracket, Colorado is the only bubble team playing on the opening day; hence one of the reasons they are listed as needing two wins to earn an at-large bid.The #5 seed Buffaloes open vs. #12 Oregon State, whom they lost to at home Saturday.If they pick up that win they would move on to face #4 Arizona in the QF round (rematch of last year’s championship game which Colorado won) – a win they may need to earn a berth.Also in the QF round, #3 Oregon will face the winner of the Washington schools, while #2 California will meet the winner of #7 USC/#10 Utah.All three teams could seal up their bids by advancing to the SF round; Colorado cannot afford a loss to Oregon State in the opening round; otherwise, there is a lot to be decided for these teams based on not only their results, but other schools across the country.

SEC: perhaps more impactful than the P12’s Tournament, the SEC Conference Tournament will hold the direct fate of numerous teams – right now it appears two teams are locks to be dancing, Florida & Missouri; the rest of the conference’s hopeful tournament teams are on the bubble.The bracket will play a big factor in the chances of these four teams, so with that in mind let’s start with Tennessee, whom we have as the “best chance” SEC bubble team currently, but they are the only one of the four playing their first game before the QF round.The #5 Vols will play the winner of #12 South Carolina/#13 Mississippi State on Thursday, with the winner of that game reaching the QF round to face off with #4 Alabama.Right off the bat, Tennessee must at least win that opening game to remain in the conversation for an at-large berth.That sets up the following QF games involving these four teams: #5 Tennessee vs. #4 Alabama, #7 Arkansas/#10 Vanderbilt vs. #2 Kentucky, #6 Texas A&M/#14 Auburn/#6 Missouri vs. #2 Ole Miss. The UT/UA game is surely an elimination game, with the loser having little chance of earning a bid; Kentucky will definitely need to win their opener vs. Arkansas/Vanderbilt as neither of those teams are NCAA Tournament caliber, and the Wildcats cannot afford another bad loss; lastly, Ole Miss will likely meet Missouri in their QF game – another must win situation.To summarize the QF round, either Tennessee or Alabama will be knocked out of consideration after those two meet (and if they don’t meet Tennessee is finished anyway), while both UK & Ole Miss need wins.Let’s bullet point what each team needs since there is a lot going on with this tourney:

#5 Tennessee: needs to win their opening round game, beat Alabama in the QF, and have a good showing vs. likely Florida in the SF round

#4 Alabama: needs to beat Tennessee & likely Florida to earn a bid

#3 Ole Miss: needs to win the bottom half of the draw which means an appearance in the SEC Championship Game

#2 Kentucky: like Ole Miss needs to either win the bottom half of the bracket, or win their QF matchup vs. Ark/Vandy and have a good showing vs. Missouri (if Mizzou was to beat A&M/Auburn then Ole Miss).They cannot afford a win in their QF game followed by a loss to Ole Miss.

The SportsBoss is a handicapping "broker" that offers NFL, NBA, NCAA football, NCAA basketball, NHL and MLB picks. The Sports Boss leverages his background which includes both a BS and MBA in Finance to build robust, analytical models which aid in predicting outcomes of games in every sport.