Friday, October 31, 2014

++Charles Krauthammer believes this election is a referendum on the incompetence of the Obama Administration, its treatment of the Secret Service fiascos,the VA, the Ebola outbreak,the rise of ISIS and the weak economic recovery. On the latter,can we admit that Obama has created more jobs in half the time Mitt Romney promised. Yes,the inequality of wealth is an issue and people do feel blah but can you name one Republican or Democrat who could have done better.++But the obsession of the Washington Pundits over DC flaps aren't making it around the country. Krauthammer admits the rise of ISIS hasn't made it as a big election issue but the belief that the world is going to pot and it's Obama's fault. ++Actually,the issues as polled buy SurveyUSA are :the economy 56%, healthcare 35% and immigration at 25%, and how thinks work in DC 21%. ++Krauthammer suggests Democrats may make it close with the GOTV but he believes this is minor compared to the overall feeling of malaise.++Eugene Robinson believes the Republicans may win but they haven't put up an alternative vision. He thinks that will put them in bad shape for 2016. ++Meanwhile there are real scandals, not the Krauthammer type. But they will not factor into anything. GOP voter suppression is an active policy in over 26 states. Now in Alaska, Iowa and Kentucky the GOP are sending out mailers warning voters their neighbors will know if they don't vote for the GOP. Alison Grimes in Kentucky is suing Mitch McConnell for distributing these flyers in Eastern Kentucky. ++Gov. Brownback finds his supply-side economics is floundering again . Right before the election,Kansas's tax revenues are now 15% less than previous projections. ++Senator McConnell may not care about being sued by Alison Grimes but he may be bothered by the news that broke today that 50kilos of coke was found on his in-laws' yacht. But this will not enter into the elections.++Michigan's Gov. Snyder's administration was found illegally destroying documents that had been legally requested under FOIA.++Of course, it doesn't matter because Chris Christie isn't running for anything--yet. But Christie has been found having a $800,000 slush fund from Hurricane Sandy allocations.++Notice Krauthammer's charges of incompetence. The VA scandal breaks and Obama moves quickly to solve it and allocate more funds for VA care. As well as investigate the culprits who are removed. The Ebola crisis has one dead and a number of nurses cured by being threatened by quarantines by governors not of whom are Democrats. I agree the optics have been awkward but scandalous--c'mon. The economic recovery has benefited the rich. It's true but don't the Republicans? The Dow is at an all-time high. Half the value of the DOW was achieved during President Obama. The Democratic argument that has been made by people like Jared Bernstein is that while the recovery is unstable it is on firmer footing than the bubbles of the recent past. Unfortunately, the Democrats have not argued this on the trail or how it would be better if infrastructure funding had been approved. On income inequality,there have been several reports that Obamacare has been the biggest equalizer in a long time. None of this will enter into this election.++Nate Silver says that today the GOP hit their highest % for taking the Senate. But his predictions range from 51 to 52, not the great referendum Krauthammer proclaims. But don't worry,if the GOP wins the Senate, they will proclaim that they have a mandate to do every destruction thing they have ever proposed. As for ISIS,the Republican Congress can always vote to declare war. It turned out so good in both Iraq and Afghanistan before.

++One of the few interesting thing about this mid-term is how puzzled pollsters are about the accuracy of the polls and the weird stability of the races despite the noise. Sam Wang notes that the polls have gone up and down but his meta-margin remains relatively stable. Today ,it is R +.4%.++Wang finds that there currently are 6 Senate races left where the margins of difference are less than 2%. Alaska, Colorado,Georgia,Iowa, Kansas and North Carolina. Republicans could win all six or the Democrats could win all six at this late hour. ++Wang's computer work today puts the GOP a slight favorite at taking the Senate at 55%. ++The range runs from a 54 to 46 GOP Senate to a Democratic majority of 52 to 48. ++It comes down to money versus organization. Can the ad blitz by the GOP beat the GOTV of the Democrats.

Thursday, October 30, 2014

++Remember how the GOP howled that the Democrats might use the technique of reconciliation to pass Obamacare and the Stimulus package/ The Democrats punked out but there was a precedent with the GOP passing tax cuts for the rich by reconciliation.

++Mitch McConnell vows to repeal Obamacare with 51 votes through reconciliation. Democrats are naive that such maneuvers can be blocked either by filibuster or veto. The GOP has already gamed this out.

++The effect of such a vote would be to devastate the healthcare industry,create spiraling costs and a ballon in health insurance premiums. For his home state of Kentucky,he would destroy Kynet,the widely popular and one of the most efficient health insurance exchanges in the country. An estimated 860,000 would be affected.

++As I've written before,Obamacare is the biggest debt killer in the policy arsenal. It is estimated that it will shave 5 trillion off the national debt by 2020.

++Another effect of a GOP Senate will be to block all Obama nominees--for judges and even the poor 54 ambassador waiting confirmation.

++Mitch McConnell let the cat out of the bag when asked whether he still supported the privatization of social security. "I don't tell my agenda until after the election." Well,now we are seeing it and pundits who wrote that the GOP wasn't running on the repeal of Obamacare missed the grand deception.

++The Last Field Poll on California is out. The cliffhanger of a race for governor shows Jerry Brown at 54 and Kashkari at33.++Today's Quinnipiac Poll for Florida shows Charlie Crist it 43,Scott at 40 and Wyllie at 8.++Detroit Free Press poll of the governor's race in Michigan shows it is Rick Snyder at 45 and Mark Schauer at 43. The paper declares the race too close to call.++PPP on the Colorado race has it Udall 48 to Gardner 48 and only 4% undecided.++The most important news of the day is that the Supreme Court has decided to discuss talking the appeal on Helbig even though the full 9th Circuit hasn't decided it. As we've written before, this would eliminate tax subsidies for Obamacare in 36 states and affect 4.6 million people immediately. It would also destabilize the whole health insurance industry. A decision on this may come November 3.

++Loras College Poll has Bruce Braley at 45 to 44 over Joni Ernst. It has Braley with a 6 pt edge in early voting. Braley has a 3.4 pt edge among independents.

++Quinnipiac has Braley up 57 to 36 in heavy Iowa Early Voting.++The NBC/Marist polls show both Brownback and Roberts behind by a point. They claim they will benefit from a Royals boost.++NBC/ Marist has Cory Gardner only one up on Mark Udall. 46 to 45.++Senator Angus King of Maine changed his endorsement from independent Cutler to Democrat Michaud.++Early voting has basically been great for the Democrats. Louisiana is rocking the polls in a way that actually may make that Senate seat close. In North Carolina the numbers are astounding. Colorado not so much.

++Strategies 360 wanted to poll Colorado taking into account the Hispanic population, which favors Mark Udall at least 2X over Cory Gardner. While the average polls have Gardner ahead by at least 4,Strategies 360 taking into account Hispanics has it Udall at 45 and Gardner at 44.

++The former Ed Muskie aide and the candidate who lost to LePage by only 10,000 votes last time,Eliot Cutler announced at a press conference in Portland that his supporters should vote their conscience. He would continue to campaign but his money has just about run out. In recent days, the RGA has been running ads in his support to cut Democrat's Michaud's chances. Michaud supporters had hoped Cutler would have just announced he was quitting to give their man a clean shot at the election. Now,it's anyone's guess.

++Governor Corbett is beginning to shore up GOP support but too late. Now 66% of GOP voters support him, up from 48% in August. ++In the previous Franklin& Marshall poll,Tom Wolf led by 25%. Now it is Wolf 50 with Corbett at 32. 17% say they are undecided. ++Corbett would become the first Republican governor in Pennsylvanian history not to win re-election.

Tuesday, October 28, 2014

++Born to Run the numbers switched to a 51-49 Senate, GOP to pick up 3 House seats and Democrats to pick up 2 statehouses. He now has Begich ahead in Alaska. He warns that for Dems in Iowa,Colorado, North Carolina, and Georgia the GOTV and early voting is critical.++The news from Georgia is that a judge ruled against the suit to make the 40,000 newly registered voters able to cast their ballots. But word from Georgia is that the early voting, shortened this year by the Deal government, is now hitting 2012 records.++From North Carolina,the early voting is surpassing 2010 numbers with the Moral Monday movement increasing African-American participation by 300% over 2010. This bodes well for the Hagan campaign.

++Maybe when he feeds the 100+ polls today into his computer, he will change his mind but Sam is at 49-51 still. I remember his ho-hum after Obama blew the first debate. ++Nate Silver is still amazed there are competitive Senate races. Harry Etten, his colleague, writes at FiveThirtyEight.com why Alaska drives them nuts and why neither guy will bet on it. He sees the polls basically favoring Sullivan but Begich's outreach has been amazing, even in statistical terms.++I have to say that I have been most disappointed in two Democrats--Bruce Baley of Iowa and Mark Udall of Colorado. Udall's campaign centered on social issues when he has far many more strengths. On Baley's campaign, all you needed to read was the Des Moines Register endorsement of him. Half of which was spent listing what he has done--maybe because He hasn't made the case for himself.++The surprise of this election has been the collapse of Republicans Land in Michigan and Dr.Wehby in Oregon. Unfortunately, Martha Coakley has not disappointed with her campaign in Massachusetts.++I still like Rick Weiland's attitude. ++Great news from Alaska,all the native languages have been recognized by law.

++We've seen amazing attacks ads over the last few days. Scott Brown posted an attack on Senator Sheehan by a Democratic legislator who has been dead for several years and whose attack on her was from 2008. We've seen Greg Orman attacked for going to a lap dance club over twenty years ago. Today another Republican attacked his opponents' daughter for where she was born.++But the classiest attack was David Perdue, Mr. Outsourcing, on Michelle Nunn. He attacked her credibility for what reason----her father Sam Nunn voted for the Panama Canal Treaty. And Perdue wants it back!++BY the way, the newest political ads in your neighborhood are for Koch Industries, showing they are a terrific business. The Kochs are bombarding the country with these ads to inoculate themselves from the criticism of their Dirty Money flooding our politics.

++Today was a huge poll dump. If I see anything,I'll post it.++Leave it to Karl Rove. Yes,the GOP avoided Obamacare for the most part in the campaign,but if they win they will declare it as part of their mandate to destroy it. The New York Times published a review of one year of Obamacare. Did it live up to the expectations. By and large yes but they emphasized that it create a rightwing backlash. I would say the resistance to universal healthcare was baked into the cake of conservatism from the beginning. Yes,the GOP is committed to strip millions from having the health insurance they currently enjoy. Watch very nasty moves if the GOP takes the Senate.++Oh yes,Obamacare happens to be the best deficit reduction measure , better than the Ryan Budget or the Catfood Commission. We are on path to shave $5 trillion off the national debt by 2020--which is tomorrow in the economic life.++Slow day for blogging because all our town is being quarantined because the Ebola plague is sweeping northern Virginia. Just kidding. What are we up to the lonely death in Dallas and nothing more.

++Princeton Election Consortium is still at 49 Dems and 51 Republicans in the Senate. The meta-margin is R.+0.3%.

++Sam Wang looks at the volatility of past elections and doesn't find much. But he says this one is peculiar because 2010 Republican governors at at risk and 2008 Democratic Senators. Basically the two surge elections are facing reaction.

++At this late date,it is astonishing to find 11 Governors' races and 7 Senatorial races where the differences between candidates are 3 percentage points or less.

++Coupled with Nate Silver's observations about the eerie consistency of polling, this election looks like it will have a profound impact on our political economy in ways that we haven't realized.

++The New York Times has the letter of the Nobel Peace Prize winners urging President Obama to release the torture report and announce how he is going to close Gitmo once and for all. If you are in the Beltway,the Imperial Post hasn't covered this yet.

Sunday, October 26, 2014

++Do yourself a favor and read Nate Silver's piece at FiveThirtyEight.com. Nate still has the GOP winning the Senate with roughly a 63% chance but his in-depth reporting of the poll shows things to watch.++Nate argues that the polling in this mid-term has been oddly consistent and that by this time in any election one party would seem to be pulling ahead. But this time,that is not occurring.++He still sees the Democrats holding a few aces going down to the election wire. He sees both Louisiana and Georgia going into run-offs. While he sees the poll showing Begich with a lead as an outlier, he admits that polling in Alaska is notoriously sparse and sporadic. He thinks the GOP taking the Senate rests on them winning two of Georgia, New Hampshire, Kansas and North Carolina. And the election is now tight in all these states.++Louisiana is reporting that early voting is equalling 2008 percentages not 2010. The number of early voting is roughly 30% African-American while in 2010 it was 20%. ++In Colorado,Udall who once had a six-point lead and drifted behind now is in the lead again. But it's a one-point race.++Kay Hagan has a consistent 3-4% lead over Tillis for months and now today's polls show it is tied.++In Iowa,the GOP candidate still has a slim one to two point lead.++The latest polls from South Dakota seem to indicate that my fantasies of a three-way slugfest are fading and the scandal-ridden former Governor Mike Rounds seems heading to the victory every one predicted in the beginning.++Gorman has slipped from a ten point lead to just 1 pat over Roberts, who has been saved by massive cash from the RNC.++So it is so close right now, almost a toss-up,make sure you vote.

++Martin Longman over at the Washington Monthly has a list of whom he wants defeated so any depression he feels on a poor election night will be alleviated.++His top five to be defeated are:1. Senator Mitch McConnell2. Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin3. Gov. Rick Scott of Florida4. Gov. Sam Brownback of Kansas5. Governor Paul LePage of Maine++Carl Hiassen in the Miami Herald brings his magical writing to bear on why he sort of supports Charlie Crist and why he really doesn't support Rick Scott.++From a personal point of view, I second Longman on both Rick Scott and Paul LePage. I would like to have one of my favorite states back--Maine.

++Andrew Sullivan at the Dish explores the meaning of Marilynne Robinson's Lilla. Today he posts a 26-minute interview between Bill Moyers and the author. It is a profound discussion on language and what our society has become. It is the best thing I've seen on the Intertubes in a long time. Basically,a dialogue among adults.

++The Marines Expeditionary Brigade,the last unit in Afghanistan,officially ended their combat mission in Helmand Province on Sunday. The final British troops are packing up and heading home. This ends 13 years of combat, which will terminate on January 1, when a small training force will remain in the country. Normally,this would be an occasion to cheer except that the news of ISIS and the collapse of Iraq put a damper on the occasion.

++The Lexington Herald-Leader uses its lengthy endorsement of Alison-Grimes to blast Mitch McConnell. He reminds readers that McConnell sabotaged jobs and transportation bills and recalls his failure to back modernizing the Interstate 65 bridges. The latter may seem parochial but you might recall that President Obama when he sought an infrastructure bill campaigned in front of the crumbling bridges linking Kentucky and Ohio. The Herald-Leader goes on to say "He brags about resolving crises that he helped create." It also blasts him for talking about the "jobless recovery" but blocking the extension of unemployment insurance.++The editorial hit the meat and potatoes of issues I feel Democrats have failed to stress throughout the campaign. "I'm for rebuilding America, my candidate isn't." I haven't heard much talk about the infrastructure,obstructionism by the GOP,the recovery or much of anything beyond raising the minimum wage. If Democrats fail this election,it's because they didn't make the sell and didn't campaign on their strengths. They failed to take it to the Republicans on their behavior for the last four years. The Lexington-Leader's editorial provided a nice antidote to what had been missing in the campaign, a succinct critique of the consequences of the filibustering head of the Senate Republicans.

Friday, October 24, 2014

++Mark Udall released his internal poll that shows he has a 1pt lead 45 to 44 over Cory Gardner. His campaign claims that the other pollsters that show Gardener with a 4-5pt lead underestimate Colorado's Hispanic community.++The internal pollsters for the national Democratic party show Udall with a 3 pt lead.++Udall either received a boost or incurred damage with the statement by the ACLU on his strong stands for transparency in government and his support against NSA surveillance.

++Nate the Great Silver has Michelle Nunn at 51% chance of winning the first-round of the Senate elections in Georgia and predicts a 70% chance for a run-off. He says a run-off has few precedents to predict the final outcome.

++Early voting in Iowa and North Carolina show the Democrats taking the early leads as is custom. But the turnout in the country overall should be down because it is a mid-term, but that doesn't mean it will be in highly contested states.++For instance,the Mark Halperin interview I referred to in the post on Alaska highlighted the high turn out expected by minorities in Georgia, especially in southern Georgia and Atlanta with its suburbs. The African-American vote has grown sizably since 2010. While we saw Michelle Obama campaigning there as well as Bill Clinton, radio broadcasts to the minority community are being done by President Obama. The issue of whether the 50,000 newly registered voters will be allowed to vote is still up in the air. In Louisiana , democratic operatives are buoyant about the turnout in the areas south of New Orleans as well as the southern part of the state. Whether this turns out , we'll see.++Colorado's all-mail ballots produce voting rates in the 70+% and may rival a presidential turnout because of the ease of voting.++In states like North Carolina, where Voter ID laws are being enforced,the Moral Monday campaign has energized the younger and minority voters in a way usually meant for presidential elections.++If the turnout is more than 2010 and slightly less than 2012,then the GOTV campaigns have been a success.++Maybe it's just Friday night but Sam Wang has his Meta-Margin at R.1%. which means this one could be close.

++I've been told this is a Republican-leaning firm. Hellenthal and Associates polled Alaska.++In the Governor's race,Republican Sean Parnell has 48.5% and the Fusion candidate Bill Walker 46.5%.++On Bloomberg Politics today with Mark Halperin, a democratic operative explained the Dems path to victory in the Senate. He gave a great college try as they went from race to race. He talked about the Alaska GOTV with its Arctic Circle headquarters trying to get native Americans to vote. Unlike other races he had no doubts about Alaska and Mark Begich, even though most pollsters had Republican Dan Sullivan taking the lead.++Hellenthal and Associates might surprise you. It did me. Begich at 51.5%, Sullivan at 41.6% I have thought Begich has run a good campaign and his GOTV plans seemed good but big bucks from the usual suspects have come behind Sullivan. So this poll may be an outlier but it sure surprises.

++The Rasmussen poll has Paul Davis (D) at 52 and Gov.Brownback at 45.++Yesterday,Jonathan Chait in New York magazine published a piece,"Republican Governors just might save the Democratic Senate." His thesis is that the ideological experiments in Kansas,North Carolina and elsewhere produces a reaction that will assist non-Republican Senate candidates in those states. Near the end of the piece I think gets near the truth. The reaction is against failure to govern because of their ideology. But I would propose that failure is a warning about what a Republican Congress would do. Clearly, Kansas is saying enough of your supply side economics. The new Rolling Stone has an autopsy of Brownback's Kansas.

++The CNN/ORC polls has Michelle Nunn at 47 and Perdue at 44. That is the fifth straight poll that shows Nunn in the lead. However, all expect this to go a runoff and the GOP is banking on low voter turnout.

Thursday, October 23, 2014

++The Capital Times decided to average recent polls taking into consideration their party biases. With Rasmussen releasing a poll with Mary Burke leading Scott Walker 49-48. The poll averaging now produces a race with Mary Burke at 51.8% to Walker's 48.2%. Burke's lead is attributed to her superior performances in her two debates with Walker. Marquette University will be releasing one last poll of the campaign before November 4.

++I got an e-mail from the Democratic Campaign Committee saying that 11 Senate races are divided by its.++I get another that says Nate "the Great" Silver at FiveThirtyEight says the control of the Senate rests with Georgia. Actually go read this column because Nate explains his probabilities and what they mean if it was baseball. Without Georgia,the Democrats would only have a 25% chance of retaining the Senate. He cites Michelle Nunn leading in the last several polls and that she has the momentum.++Andrew Sullivan pays attention to the South Dakota race where Governor Rounds is mired in scandal that has surfaced with gale wind force in the last few days. Andrew is of the opinion that Pressler is the most likely to knock Rounds off, not Weiland. He argues the state has gone almost completely Democratic and that Pressler, a former Senator and Republican,is more likely to siphon off Rounds support. Read the article. Then he has a link to his previous musings on South Dakota. ++As anyone who reads this blog knows,I caught on to South Dakota early on with Weiland's campaign of stopping in each town. But step back,the state has the lowest unemployment rate in the country. Doesn't Rounds reap the benefit of that?++I have been musing on whether corruption isn't a political attribute. Consider the present candidates--Rick Scott is even with Charlie Christ and everyone knows he built his fortune on Medicare fraud and should be in prison;Scott Walker has faced the John Doe investigation and will have another one after the election as well as been blatantly involved in giving mining rights for contributions and he is even with Mary Burke,Michigan's Rick Snyder has seized cities and put management teams in place without a democratic process but is either tied, according to PPP, with Mark Schauer. Is there truly no accountability? Chris Christie's Bridgegate pales in comparison to his sweetheart contracts and the pipeline across southern Jersey. ++Maybe voters think since politicians are corrupt, then it's better to elect people who know how corruption works. None of the contenders this year have charismatic personalities. None are articulate. And none pay any attention to the media. Maybe that's the new recipe for success. Chris Hayes quipped that Rick Scott is the worst candidate of all time--but here we are less than two weeks out and he is tied with an articulate,smart candidate who has already been governor and has a winning personality.Somewhere lurking in the voters' subconscious is the awareness that corruption makes government work.Governor Brownback faces another issue--ideology doesn't make government work and Kansas' financial picture is so bleak because of his ultra right ideology that economists say the state can't come back.++I have read James Ellroy's Perfidia about Los Angeles around the time of Pearl Harbor. All our favorite characters show up like Dudley Smith. Besides the joy of reading Ellroy's prose,isn't the honest reaction to the corruption and sleaze in the story is that is preferable to a reformist tradition. It seems more real and human than the Good Government types. Isn't that the American dark side? And isn't that why so blatantly corrupt politicians win? They seem to have more of the juices that make humans interesting.

++Sam Wang explains why a meta-margin of only R.4% leads him to conclude the Senate control is not decided. Mid-term polls are five times more likely to be wrong. Read the short article at Princeton Election Consortium. He starts with Democrats at 45 assured seats and adds the probables to get to 49. The GOP must lose one of Alaska,Iowa,Colorado,Kentucky or Georgia to have a tied Senate.++Pew has the generic poll at 47D to 46 GOP. Pew had the most accurate generic polling in 2010 and 2012. The GOP in 2010 was in double digits.++From the right comes articles that only 20% of likely voters approve President Obama. I have no idea whether this is true or not but the late ad buys are attacking Democrats for voting with Obama and Obamacare. Those who think Obamacare isn't a target are delusional. The Cookie-Cuter ads against most embattled Democratic Senators all have the targeted person "as the deciding vote for Obamacare" and "for closing the government"--i.e. that is not accepting Senator Cruz' bit to defund Obamacare.The Democrats have been lame in not going after GOP obstructionism and the closing of the government,which produced the only polls that had them taking the House.

++Nathan Deal and Jason Carter are both stuck in the mud. Both are tied at 44% and the libertarian Hunt is at 5%. 7% are undecided.++Michelle Nunn is at 47%,winning the majority of women and independents.++David Perdue is at 45%.

++Amanda Swafford is at 4%.++The undecided are at 4%.The poll remarks that Nunn has the momentum.

++Joni Ernst refused to attend the Des Moines Register editorial meeting,one of the regular musts for anyone seeking office in Iowa.++She and the RNC have requested all materials and positions of polls and other matters so they can call for a recount. This is reminiscent of the Norm Coleman-Al Franken election in Minnesota.++Then to whip up her base, she bragged she always carries a Smith & Wesson to make sure her rights are respected and suggested that citizens should use their guns against the government if it moves against their rights.++Her political positions to her base run the conspiratorial like believing the UN wants to take our land to the slightly bizarre that agricultural credits to farmers create dependency. ++That Braley and the Democrats haven't hammered her strange political beliefs home at this late stage suggests how lame Braley's candidacy is. Joni Ernst makes Sharron Angle look like a moderate.

Wednesday, October 22, 2014

++Chris Christie said today that the GOP needs to win the state houses so they can control the vote in the 2016 elections. Perfect reason for voter suppression.++Sam Wang thinks the bad news for Democrats will be offset by them picking up--he says 1 seat this year. The reasoning is that the party out of the White House picks up seats at every level in the mid-term during the second term of a President.++But have you noticed the group of corrupt Governors that are running? Rick Scott, Scott Walker,Pennsylvania's Corbett,Georgia's Nathan Deal and Maine's own tea bagger Le Page. My election night would be made if this string lost--for the simple sake of reform.

++St. Leo's University has Charlie Crist at 43 and Rick Scott at 40 and Andrew Wyllie at 8. 9 percent are undecided. At this stage of the election, can anyone find 9percent undecided.++The FBI dropped a bombshell on the South Dakota Senate race today saying their investigation into Mike Rounds is very active. Newspapers in South Dakota have raised the issue of how to replace Rounds if he is elected when he is indicted.++Mitch McConnell released an internal poll showing he's 8 points ahead just as the Democratic Senate Committee has thrown more funds back into the Grimes' race.++George H.W. Bush has backed teabagger Le Page in Maine. Unfortunately, he's venerated there.++Polls show that likely voters now prefer that the GOP wins the Senate citing the GOP's edge on almost all issues that are a priority. Chris Matthews said that the shootings n Canada have given the GOP an edge on the terrorism issue. Say what? But this election has become the Ebola,ISIS, terrorism election even though none of the elected officials will have any say in these issues.++The Democrats better pray their GOTV campaign succeeds. The GOP has copied their success and with billions hope to counter this. This mid-term now is the most expensive in history.++The flap du jour among the right is John Kerry appointing Gary Hart as the new envoy to Ireland.The right strangely forgets that Gary Hart was and is actually strong on national security.++I am still getting two dozen e-mails per day asking for campaign funding. Does admitting you are losing,that all is lost, bring in any bucks.++This election for me is pretty uneventful. Mark Warner is running as my Senator and my Williams classmate and former Ambassador Don Beyer is running as my congressman. Living in Virginia for 20 years,I still don't know what my Senators do. Republican or Democrat.++I do look forward to America's Governor winning again. Governor Moonbeam,political Zen Master, Jerry Brown.++Hillary is supposed to announce her candidacy soon after the mid-terms. I guess to raise the spirits of a depressed Democratic base.++The pundits are already putting this election in the can but the pollsters are debating how inaccurate mid-term polls are. Wang and Nate Silver have been at it for the past week. And they think they are off. Could be by a lot and could favor one party or another but no one will know until after the votes are cast.++Fun scenarios like the Senate not being known until January are probably not going to happen.

++Rasmussen today has Mary Burke ahead by a point of Scott Walker. It was the first poll after their debate.It is the first time she has led a poll against Walker. 49-48. Getting close to 50.++Rudy Guiliani said the Rick Scott should never be governor.++The people of New Hampshire had the giggles when Scott Brown was asked why he didn't run for Senate in Massachusetts. He answered he was born in New Hampshire and the laughs kept on coming. But his campaign has drawn closer.++The consensus of the aggregators is that GOP has 52 Senate seats,Democrats 48. Sam Wang is still at 51. ++Ed Kilgore warns that this election has no mandate despite the GOP's mid-term insistence. He's right but if the GOP wins the Senate they will try to gut Obamacare because even though they have avoided it this is the party's view,they will pass the Keystone Pipeline, and John McCain as head of the armed services committee insists he will put forth a resolution to put armed forces in Syria. Others suggest besides giving Obama fits, Obama is likely to great the Trans-Pacific trade agreement, which Harry Reid has been blocking.++The prospects for the remaining Obama years would diminish and force him to come through on his commitments on immigration and the environment against enormous resistance.

Monday, October 20, 2014

++Chuck Todd took after Alison Grimes for her refusal to say whether she voted for President Obama. His remarks became an ad for Mitch McConnell. Some said it doomed her as well as the national Democratic Committee ending their support for her ads--but not her GOTV effort.++No the Bluegrass Poll conducted by Survey USA has McConnell with only a one point lead on Grimes.44-43. 5% are for the libertarian David Patterson and 8% are undecided.++The last two weeks will be filled with millions of dollars of ads.

++Politico headlined a piece that Democrats hurt by Ebola and the American people fear terrorism and the government's competence. But their poll numbers show something else.++61% of Americans are confident our government can deal with the Ebola issue.++58% support Obamacare, with a few tweaks.++And President Obama has a little bounce up to a 47% approval rating.++The Democrats are at 38%++The GOP at 30%.++On the House preference Americans favor Democrats by 41 to 36. Traditionally that would mean a tie. Because of gerrymandering and bizarre voting requirements,it's estimated that the GOP will pick up 5 seats. ++Which Party is perceived as being for Wall Street and the Big Banks, it is the GOP by a 39% to 9% wipeout.Then Zogby Analytics has a poll that President Obama had a three point bounce since September moving from a 43% approval rate to 46%. Rasmussen actually had him at 50% the other day.The problem as I see it is that his bounce comes from his classic base which vote less in the mid-terms. For instance among the 18-29 year olds he went up 13 points from 43 to 56%. Among the 30-49 year olds,he is at 51%. Among 50-64 year old 42%. And in the 66 or over, who do vote, he is at 27%.Among Hispanics, who are complaining about being underestimated in the polls this mid-term,he is at 76%.Among Investors, he is at 54%.Among "Wall Mart Shoppers" he is at 55%.Among the "creative class" he is at 58%.But the elections that matter are being held in Romney states where his approval ratings are in the 30s.

++ A new Monmouth University poll taken in Kansas has Orman and Roberts both at 46%,3% will vote for someone else. 5% are undecided. The Republican National Committee has unleashed bucks to save Roberts seat and they may do it. However,Democratic candidate for governor Davis has a 50 to 45 lead over Sam Brownback.++A PPP poll has Kay Hagan still grinding it out with a 46 to 43 lead over Tom Tillis.++Sam Wang at Princeton Election Consortium has the Democrats and independent at 48 Senators and the GOP at 52. Strangely enough that seems to be the consensus findings among the punditry.++Meanwhile Rick Weiland's campaign in South Dakota is drawing a lot of support and his GOP rival has attracted the national Republican attention as Rounds is hiring professional Get Out the Vote people. Weiland is benefiting from the DailyKos campaign aimed at attracting the native American vote on the reservations.

Sunday, October 19, 2014

++The Mellman Group, who polled for Harry Reid's race in Nevada,has interesting news on the Colorado Senate race. Marl Udall has a slim lead over Cory Gardner,44 to 41. Another 15% are undecided. ++39% strongly support Udall, while 32% strongly support Gardner. They are tied among independents.++Another polling organization, the Bereson Group has Udall at 47% to Gardner 44%.++This is a race that comes down to the Get Out the Vote campaign.

++Citing a series of her accomplishments,The New Orleans Times-Picayune endorsed Mary Landrieu on the font page of their Sunday paper.++The editorial said she was a "strong and effective advocate of the state." They blasted Republicans for making this a partisan election--what is it then--and defended Mary Landrieu as a moderate.++The editorial concluded "her knowledge and influence are vital to Louisiana residents."++This is in sharp contrast to the bizarre Denver Post editorial backing Cory Gardner over Senator Udall. Gary Hart went on Huffington Post to blast the editorial.

++Yesterday morning I awoke to find the Supreme Court issued a statement allowing Texas to go through with their Voter ID law, which the previous Federal judge call a "poll tax." There was no judicial rationale but Judges Kagan,Sotomayor and Ginzberg registered their dissents. Ginzberg filed a blistering dissent. The ruling affects 600,000 mostly minority voters.

++Marriage equality expands everyday so it is hard to keep up. Arizona,Alaska and now Wyoming have joined the increasing number of states that recognize same sex marriage.++ Andrew Sullivan wrote a joyous piece on Pope Francis' statement urging the Catholic Church to open its arms to the talent of their gay laity. No sooner did the Pope issue his statement, which had deep implications for Catholic doctrine than the American Catholic Bishops struck back to get the document modified in a less friendly way.

++The day after the Crist-Scott debate, CNN announced that it banned Charlie Crist's fan from the next debate. The fan now is featured prominently in Crist's new tav ads. Crist has taken a two point lead over Scott in the averaged polls.

Wednesday, October 15, 2014

++While the videos are up at Democraticunderground and the Dailykos, you have to check out the greatest moment of the 2014 campaign season. The Crist-Scott debate.++The moderators of the Crist-Scott debate are flummoxed that neither candidate is on stage. Then Charlie Crist appears. Another moderator announces that we heard Rick Scott is in the building. The next thing he announces is that Rick Scott won't appear with Charlie Crist.++The reason--Charlie Crist had someone put a small fan beneath his podium because it was a 90 degree day and the lights will make it hotter. ++The Moderator asks whether the rules of the debate allow for fans. Charlie Crist answers there was nothing about fans in the rules. Another moderator who wants to defend Scott says the rules say "no electronics"--to which smoothly answers are we going to speak about real issues. Another moderator insists it isn't a one man debate.++Crist handled this well and was crisp and precise. Finally Scott suddenly appears. To those who haven't followed this campaign,Scott has avoided at any cost of appearing where Crist is and he refuses interviews with reporters. ++Crist in my mind won the debate but nowadays no one knows. But at least Charlie Crist's Fan got its own hashtag and tweets. I hope he gets a TV ad out of it.++Visually, it was one of the most surreal moment in debate history. And the moderators made it even more so by equating a fan with electronics. Personally I thought the Scott gang thought they were psyching out Crist and not making assholes of themselves.

++The latest Marquette University poll and the last Iowa Selzer poll showed independents breaking down the Democratic candidates. Whether these polls are outliers remains to be seen.++Today's Marquette poll has Mary Burke in a virtual tie with Scott Walker 47 to 47. Oddly enough Scott Walker actually has a 50% approval rating.

++The Democrats have upped their commitment to the Georgia Senate race because their internal polls show Michelle Nunn closing in on 50%. The average so far is David Perdue by 5.++But SurveyUSA's latest shows that among likely voters Nunn leads 48 to 45.++Meanwhile the Georgia Attorney General has figures out where the 40,000 newly registered voters are.

Monday, October 13, 2014

++The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics poll in Iowa shows a one point race. Joni Ernst at 47 to Bruce Brayley's 46. The poll was conducted by Selzer & Associates ,small firm known for his accuracy in Iowa.

++Washington monthly reports The Sioux Fall Angus Leader 's reporter Jonathan Ellis refers to Republican Senate candidate Mike Rounds as "roadkill". He cites his problem as hiring his old staff for his run as governor and that they hadn't a clue of what it takes to run a Senate campaign. He says Rounds may well win as millions have come into his campaign from outside the State.++Talking Points Memo reports that a GOP poll done by Harper Pollin, shows Rick Weiland down by 4 against Rounds 37 to 33 and Pressler at 23. The momentum in the poll is down.

Sunday, October 12, 2014

++Sam Wang now puts Dem chances at 39%. The meta-margin now is R+0.4%- 2.6%.++Yesterday, the Hill published a piece about Democrats worrying about voter turnout since The Gallup poll shows that only 33% of people polled intended to vote. If true, this would be a lower turnout than 2010 and 13% of the GOP voters are paying more attention to the races than Democratic voters.++Celinda Lake said that core constituencies are depressed and not energized. For instance, the Hispanic voters are sullen because President Obama did not make his moves on immigration before the election, something Lake expected. ++However,reports from the field show that in battleground races there is intense interest. Where there are few competitive races like California and New York,the response is ho-hum.++One race where there is intense interest is the Iowa Senate race where the latest Bloomberg poll shows that it is down to 1% for Ernst. Josh Marshall at Talking Points dissected the poll, which showed that Braley is supported on the issues by Iowans and that Iowans like having Senators from two different parties.++This election comes down to the success of the Bannock Street Get Out The Vote campaign by the Democrats. However,the Koch-funded Americans for Prosperity is mounting a strong get out the vote effort, particularly in Florida.

Saturday, October 11, 2014

++Today, Sam has the Democrats probability at 50%. He notes the median of the Iowa polls puts Ernst +.5-8% ahead--a dead heat.++In the Senate, Democrats on track to win 48-51 seats.++In the House, he says trends are more 2012, than 2010. The GOP will control the House but the question will be whether the Democrats win the popular vote like they did last time.

++The so-called war against ISIS seems it will take up the last two years of the Obama Administration.++John Kerry says that the air campaign is just getting started and that people should expect to be frustrated at its progress.++For the past few weeks,attention has been centered on the ISIS siege and partial capture of Kobane which has been bravely defended by the Syrian Kurds. What has bothered both the Kurds and an irritated United States is that the Turkish military has been watching from the border and not responding. The Washington Post tut-tutted that the United States blaming Turkey is no excuse for a lack of action by the United States. Meanwhile the US has flown dozens of sorties to bolster the defenders .The Irony is that we are spending billions of dollars to blow up our own equipment.++Turkey is arguing a buffer zone has to be created in Syria near their border and a no-fly zone established over Syria.++In Iraq,a report I received this week says that Iraqi soldiers must be given arms when they arrive at the conflict zone because there is fear they will sell them on the black market to the militias.++In Sunni areas, governors have now gone public requesting American troops because they do not believe Iraqi forces can defend their territory.++This past week also saw ISIS occupy small towns on the outskirts of Baghdad near the International Airport.

++Larry Pressler who was surging in South Dakota now finds himself being attacked by the GOP on the grounds that he relatively wealthy,owns a condo in Washington,D.C. and two properties in Manhattan.++Mary Landrieu, one of BIG Oil's biggest boosters in the Senate, now finds that the oilier have abandoned her for a chance at a GOP Senate, which will be totally pro-Big Oil.++David Perdue has more than an outsourcing the problem, his testimony in a bankruptcy case reveals that he fought hard for his compensation but did little or nothing for thousands being laid off. Certainly grist for the populist mill.++Wendy Davis' attack ad on Abbott brought howls from the Washington Post as the nastiest ad of the campaign. But no one doubts its accuracy.++The Pryor family and Bill Clinton have been campaigning in Arkansas to persuade the state not to go for Cotton.++I thought Mary Burke did very well against Scott Walker in the Wisconsin debate. The Wisconsin government may actually use the ID law after SCOTUS rejected it. The Supreme Court decision affects nearly 330,000 voters, who predominantly vote for Democrats. ++The Denver Post endorsed Cory Gardner because they think a Republican Senate would moderate its views. The Problem is that Gardner has a voting record right of Michelle Bachmann and Steven King.++The New Georgia Project and the ACLU are suing the Georgia Attorney General to make sure 40,000 newly registered voters are on the rolls. The AG's office says they can't find them.++Martin Longman filling in for Ed Kilgore suggests pollsters predictions for a lower than expected turnout is because voters realize Congress has been the least productive in years.

Friday, October 10, 2014

++ A Federal Judge strikes down the ban on same sex marriage in North Carolina.++The Supreme Court allows same sex marriage in Idaho.++West Virginia will not appeal a court ruling allowing same sex marriage.++And the beat goes on.

++Ed Kilgore warns again that it is premature to posit what the lame duck session will entail. Speculation has run rampant from Marco Rubio trying to gut the "risk-corridors" for health insurance companies and thereby cripple Obamacare to fights over the successor to Eric Holder.++Kilgore says again that we might not know who will control the Senate until January. Independent candidates in Kansas and South Dakota have said they will wait until then to decide with which party to caucus. Kilgore, always attuned to the vagaries of the South,point to run offs in Georgia and Louisiana in the first week of December.++Conventional wisdom is that Republicans will win these run-offs. But Kilgore points to Mary Landrieu winning the last Louisiana run-off, even though the fate of the Senate was already known. But this year if it is unclear,we will be treated to a flood of GOP money and a massive GOTV campaign by Democrats.++And all this creates a cloud over the lame duck session. I think we will actually see the possibility of a government shutdown again. I also do not see any war resolution on Syria.

++President Obama today will declare California's San Gabriel Mountains a National Monument.

++A Federal Judge in Arizona upheld the Obama Administration's decision to protect over 1 million acres around the Grand Canyon from mining. The judge reviewed the EPA recommendations and the environmental impact study.

++At midnight, Sam Wang posts that the Democratic possibility of holding the Senate is down to 49% and the Meta-margin is R.0.7%. ++Yesterday, Wang explained how he puts Fox News polls, which show a huge Republican bias, into the mix without weighing them like Nate Silver. ++Nate Silver cheekily tweeted last night that the rate same-sex marriage is being approved,projections are that it would soon reach 79 states. Good one.

Thursday, October 9, 2014

++Michelle Nunn launched her first ad attacking David Perdue for bragging he "Built his career in outsourcing jobs". It is an effective ad with the news casts of the story. "His Pride,Our Pain" is the title.

++The UK Independence Party won its first seat in parliament in Clacton-on-sea. A defector from the Conservative Party, Douglas Carswell won with 60% of the vote. ++UKIP is now the third biggest party in the UK, having surpassed the Liberal Democrats. UKIP has 14% of the electorate, while the Liberal Democrats imploded a few years ago and stand at 7%. ++UKIP stands a good chance of picking up two more seats next month.

++After ruling on Ohio's early voting law and upholding North Carolina's same day registration restrictions, it is a surprise to me that the Supreme Court ruled that Wisconsin can not implement their ID law for this election. Previously they also threw out a Virginia congressional district because it concentrated the African-American vote to dilute its impact on other races.

++ Speaking of Georgia,SurveyUSA has a new poll today that shows David Perdue at 46 and Michelle Nunn at 45. Nunn has 87% of the Democratic base but independents are breaking 5:3 against her. Nathan Deal leads Jason Carter for Governor by 46 to 44.++University of Northern Florida has a poll out today which shows Charlie Crist at 43, Rick Scott at 38 and Wyllie at 10%. In a straight race, Crist is 47 to Rick Scott at 42.++The Arkansas Democratic Party commissioned an Opinion Research Associates' poll. Pryor leads Cotton 45 to 42. This runs counter to the Fox poll which shows Cotton ahead by more than the margin of error.

++Ed Kilgore likes to flirt with the different takes on what affects elections. You can go the political science route or the traditional politicos. This time Kilgore sees two candidates that can generate game-changing gaffes. The first is GOP candidate in Iowa,Joni Ernst, whose past positions are bizarre to say the least and David Perdue, who escaped the Georgia primary defeating right-wing gaffe masters.++Perdue has billed himself a job creator, a businessman who knows international affairs. One of his primary missions in his business was to outsource Georgian jobs abroad. Perhaps, not the hottest issue now but he has compound the issue by saying "he's proud" of the job he did in outsourcing. Michelle Nunn leapt on this. ++Perdue in the latest polls has a 1 to 2 pt lead over Michelle Nunn. This is all before he's hit by the avalanche of ads on his outsourcing. Kilgore may be right--this may be a game-changer.

++Since I do not have a television, I have been spared the torture of the onslaught on political ads. Ed Kilgore at Washington Monthly summarizes a Bloomberg Politics article on whose doing what.++The leader in the ads wars is Iowa with 101,181 spots so far. The GOP has the advantage in Iowa,Kentucky and Georgia. The Democrats have the advantage in North Carolina,Louisiana and Alaska. It is even in Michigan,Arkansas and Colorado.++For their positive alternative,the GOP has run 267,000 ads solely against President Obama. They have also run 175,000 ads against Obamacare.

++Sam Wang still has Democrats at 55% chance of retaining the Senate. In the wake of the last two days of polls, Wang says we have to stand back and analyze what is or is not happening. ++You can read his essay "No Wave" at Princeton Educations Consortium. Basically, he says there is no strong movement toward the Republicans. So far this is not a wave election, more like a ripple election. ++He analyzes the effects of Obama's approval ratings on the race. He notes that Obama has gained three points since the summer,which slightly affects things.++In 2010, the GOP picked up 63 seats in the House. Wang says that a party gains 3 House seats for every 1% on the generic congressional poll, something I never read before. So far, either the GOP gains nothing or maxes out at 12 seats.++He says the Senate will come down to 4 or 5 close races. He says that there are now questions on Georgia and Kentucky, which show the Republicans have lost ground. ++In Kansas,both the governor's race and the Senate race are tightening. The main reason for this is that Orman seems to be losing popularity among independents.

++On readers' supported news, Paul Krugman wrote an extensive article on his assessment of President Obama as a consequential President, despite reservations about parts of his policies. Krugman goes through each policy advancement from Obamacare to his handling of the economy. While a critic of the size and extent of the stimulus package, he asserts we recovered from the Great Recession in better shape than any other country. He also notes that while lagging behind on gay rights at first, President Obama's support for gay rights and same sex marriage swung the pendulum to a positive where it is impossible to go back. He also credits the President with feeding the impulse of the citizenry to seek change, even if he himself has been frustrated.The piece is a long, sophisticated view of Barack Obama as President.++Andrew Sullivan who has been down in the dumps over President Obama's War against ISIS takes heart in all those like Leon Panetta,General Petraeus, and Hillary Clinton who worked by the old rules and the old think. Andrew sees that President Obama has been trying to get to somewhere different for the 21st Century and been dragged down by the Washington forces mired in the past.++The deficit hit the lowest of the Obama's Presidency ringing in at $486 billion. I've said that $250 billion means a balanced budget given the size of our economy and the government budget. What Obama's War against ISIS will do to that is anyone guess.++The Stock Market today has its best record for all of 2014.++Our first Ebola patient Thomas Eric Duncan died today. There is one other known patient being treated in Omaha. A Texas Sheriff today was rumored to have Ebola type symptoms but others in Maryland and DC have turned out to be false cases. So that's your great epidemic. You wouldn't know it by listening to cable news or Republican candidates. ++World Nut Daily says that Obama conjured up the Ebola scare to activate his plan to put everyone in FEMA Camps.++The newest right-wing rage is to blame Obama for the appearance of enterovirus appearing in young children. Conservative radio hosts are saying that this is being spread by the undocumented children who came in the rush from Central America.They claim this is a type of biological warfare.++The other great scandal which is to bring the President down is that Michelle Obama is a "He" and their children were adopted in Morocco. I wonder what happens to all this nonsense when he leaves office. Will birthers and others spend time to actually "prove" their case when he is no longer relevant?++The Supreme Court upheld the North Carolina voter suppression laws as they did Ohio's early voting ban. Next will be the Wisconsin Voter I.D. Laws. And yes, studies have come out this week that show Voter ID laws do suppress minority and student voting.++The New York Times commented today about the strange business of the Georgia polls, which show that African-American voting will be less than the 2010 election while the African-American vote has increased substantially in Georgia since then. That's why you should keep a watch on the Georgia results election night.++E.J. Dionne spent time with the Moral Monday organizers in North Carolina and reflected that Senator Hagan is hanging on because voters are reacting to the repressive conservatives who turned a great state into a dump. This is also true with Kansas, another laboratory of extreme right policies. Tom Tillis blasted Kay Hagan for voting with President Obama 90% of the time, even though her rating is more conservative than liberal. She blasted him for his leadership in gutting the North Carolina educational system and his support for more tax breaks for the rich. Remember the last campaign when the RNC attacked her for being an atheist. She is an elder in the Presbyterian Church, which certainly makes her suspect.

About Me

Bruce McColm was the former executive director of Freedom House, a human rights group in New York,the President of the International Republican Institute and currently is the President of the Institute for Democratic Strategies. In the pre-digital age, his writings appeared in the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal, the Christian Science Monitor, Newsweek and other magazines and journals. This blog is intended to re-create for him the early days when he was a free-lance writer expecting to cover subjects ranging from politics to art.