Tuesday, September 25, 2012

Obama has an Independent and Undecided Voter Problem

President Obama has two major problems this election, despite the Drive-By Media's questionable polls that show him leading Governor Mitt Romney by a couple of points.

Number one, Governor Romney leads with Independents. He has continued to lead President Obama with Independents pretty much since he was the nominee. Now in 2008, President Obama beat Senator John McCain significantly with Independents. He cannot win without winning Independents, friends. That's just a fact.

Now the President has another issue. He still cannot get above 50% in almost any poll (without a preposterous Democrat skew in the sample anyway) and is below 50% in most battleground states. According to political strategist Dick Morris (who is most famously known for his work with Bill Clinton in both his campaigns and Presidency), had this to say:

The fact is that the undecided vote always goes against the
incumbent. In 1980 (the last time an incumbent Democrat was beaten), for
example, the Gallup Poll of October 27th had Carter ahead by 45-39.
Their survey on November 2nd showed Reagan catching up and leading by
three points. In the actual voting, the Republican won by nine. The
undecided vote broke sharply — and unanimously — for the challenger.

An undecided voter has really decided not to back the incumbent. He just won’t focus on the race until later in the game.So, when the published poll shows Obama ahead by, say, 48-45, he’s really probably losing by 52-48!

Our friends over at Examiner.com found a similar problem for the President in swing states. Using a recent Purple Strategies poll, Examiner had this to say:

For the purpose of their analysis, precise calculations will be made
from the polling data and the undecided voters will be calculated to go
80 percent for Romney. Odds are likely they will support Romney in
higher percentages.The five states, in dark red in the map above, (shown below here) are worth 84 electoral
votes. Both candidate needs most if not all of these states to win the
election. The light blue and pink states on the map above are all the
other states not included in these five surveyed by Purple Strategies
and covered in this article....

These numbers today indicate a strong chance that Mitt Romney will win
the 84 electoral votes of these five states. But before the real votes
are cast, we still have three presidential debates and just over six
weeks of campaigning yet to occur. That's a long time and a lot of
opportunities for a lot to happen and be done by both campaigns. There
is time for polling numbers to change but fewer voters who may change
their minds. In each of the states in the Purple Poll of those five
swing states, at least 90 percent of the voters in each states reported
they are unlikely to change their preferences between now and November.

While the President is shown to have a few point lead in the states in question (Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, and Colorado) he remains under 50% in all five states. Given that it is reasonable to surmise that 80% of undecided voters at this point in the game will likely go against Obama (after all he's had nearly 4 years to get them to vote for him), Governor Romney can be projected to win those five states, and thus the White House.

Here's the Examiner's projected Electoral College map:

Compare that, interestingly enough, to the Biblical Conservatism model put together earlier this week (and published on our Facebook Page which you should go like, by the way):

Now, in my estimate I projected Minnesota and Pennsylvania as potentially going red because Obama can't get over 50% in those states this close to the election. Either way, those two states won't change the outcome. Now let's look at these two models compared to the University of Colorado projection:

You'll notice the states in question amongst the three models (PA, IA, MI, MN and NV) could only change the outcome if Obama won every single one of those states. Each model is based on a different concept. Mine is using states where Obama is not above 50% and acting on the expectation that undecided voters will break for Romney hard as they have in previous elections. (Yes I'm aware my projections include a couple of rosy scenarios in MN, MI and PA, but again those three are not in a position to impact the election if I am incorrect.) The University of Colorado's projection is based on economic and historical factors. Examiner's is based on a lot of the same factors mine is, although they consider MN, MI and PA as likely to go to Obama.

Either way, friends, both the Undecided Voter and the Independent Voters add up to a poor scenario for Obama. Keep remembering that, and keep your heads up, friends!