In a possible further sign that US-led sanctions are creating fissures in the Iranian leadership, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad directed a rare public insult at Iran's top judiciary official, Thomas Erdbrink reports in the New York Times:

The dispute has broken out against a backdrop of increasing economic crisis in Iran, where the currency has plummeted in value and the country’s oil and banking sectors are confronting acute problems because of the Western sanctions, which have severely impeded Iran’s ability to sell oil, its most important export.

Analysts say Mr. Ahmadinejad is preparing for an increasingly public fight with his political enemies within the conservative Islamic political hierarchy, the outcome of which could decide his level of influence after his second term officially ends in July 2013.

Updated at 11.04pm BST

10.35pm BST

McCain: Obama has record of 'failed leadership' on foreign policy

It's like old times for John McCain. The Romney campaign has dispatched the former presidential candidate and other top Republicans to attack President Obama's foreign policy record in advance of tonight's debate.

Guardian correspondent Chris McGreal reports:

Senator John McCain, speaking at the debate venue in Boca Raton, Florida, said he gives Obama credit for the killing of the al-Qaida leader but otherwise he has a record of "failed leadership".

"I think all Americans given the president credit for the elimination of Osama bin Laden, and then he should take credit for the abject failure throughout the Middle East. Al-Qaida is on the return. Al-Qaida is resurgent throughout Iraq, Afghanistan, all of North Africa, Libya, Mali. They're returning because we're weak," said McCain. "He overruled his military advisers time after time in Afghanistan and we're failing there. In Iraq, everything is unravelling."

McCain sneered at Obama over his claim to have been "leading from behind" in some of his policies, such as last year's Nato attacks in support of Libya's revolution.

Tonight's debate will focus on foreign policy – so does that mean the candidates will discuss the Greek national debt? Or is the Eurozone crisis more of a domestic American issue, since a collapse over there is likely the single greatest threat to the economy here?

Ezra Klein, for one, doesn't buy the foreign/domestic distinction as it's applied to the presidential debates:

Or take financial regulation, which also came up in the first debate. The candidates argued over who would do what with the Dodd-Frank financial reforms. Yet if you talk to the people trying to implement those reform – or any reforms – they’ll tell you that an enormous amount of their time and energy goes into coordinating with other countries and worrying about foreign firms.

“Capital markets are the most globalized of all,” says Bergsten, “so it’s folly to think you can truly regulate financial stability unless you do it on a global basis. When Barney Frank was writing Dodd-Frank, he said the reason they were leaving a lot of big issues open was to promote a maximum degree of international compatibility.”

With tonight’s debate focused on foreign policy, the poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates, finds Romney virtually tied with Obama in trust to handle international affairs (49-46 percent, Obama-Romney) and terrorism (47-46 percent), as well as to serve as commander-in-chief of the armed services (48-45 percent). That reflects a shift in Romney’s favor; Obama led on terrorism by 11 points as recently as Sept. 29, and on international affairs by 7 points earlier this month.

The poll detects a giant gender gap of 26 points, with Obama leading among women by 14 and Romney leading among men by 12.

Results have a margin of sampling error of 3 points. The poll was conducted by telephone on the day of the most recent debate and afterwards, Oct.18-21, 2012, among a random national sample of 1,376 likely voters, including landline and cellphone-only respondents. Full results are here.

With four hours to go before the festivities commence, here's a look at where things stand:

•The candidates are in place in Boca Raton, Florida, for a final debate before the two-week sprint to election day. The debate will focus on foreign policy, meaning President Obama will have to answer questions about the death of four Americans in Libya and Governor Romney will have to make his criticisms stick while laying out an approach that feels different from the president's.

•The candidates disagree on plenty. Romney has criticized Obama for pulling out of Iraq too abruptly, for announcing a deadline for withdrawal from Afghanistan and for not being "tough" enough with Iran. The candidates also appear to disagree on the use of "enhanced interrogation techniques." Some of Romney's charges disappear in sunlight; there's evidence, for example, that US-led sanctions on Iran are taking a devastating toll. Read our breakdown of the candidates' disagreements on foreign policy here.

• Expect to see a contrast in styles, with Romney talking broadly about America's power to shape history and Obama talking about ending two wars (he just may bring up killing Osama bin Laden as well). Romney says the president is too meek in his exercise of power; Obama has implied that Romney would be reckless. The governor says the president apologizes. The president says the governor has failed the test of statesmanship.

•Jimmy Carter has added his two cents in the run-up to the debate, appearing in Jerusalem to describe the state of Israeli-Palestinian affairs as "catastrophic."

• A new NBC/WSJ poll puts the presidential race tied at 47-47. A CBS/Quinnipiac poll finds Romney with momentum in Ohio, having drawn to within 5 points of the president there.

Updated at 9.54pm BST

9.43pm BST

The Guardian's Washington bureau chief, Ewen MacAskill, reports on gratitude inside the Obama campaign for the help of Sen. John Kerry, who played Romney during debate prep. Did he earn the secretary of state nod? Kerry is rumored to hope so.

MacAskill is at the media filing center at Lynn University:

A White House campaign aide said that senator John Kerry, who has been playing the part of Mitt Romney in the preparations for each of the debates, was given a round of applause at the end of a rehearsal last night.

The applause is probably justified: it is a tough job, having to read yourself into the mind of another politician and to study seemingly endless videos of pick up on their mannerisms and verbal tics. The big unanswered question is how good a job Kerry did in the run-up to the first debate? Or does blame for Obama's meltdown in that debate rest entirely with the president?

Obama, who has been preparing at Camp David since Friday, had another 45-minute session this morning before flying to Andrews air base for the trip to Florida.

He is to spend the afternoon with friends, including Marty Nesbitt, a long-time associate from Chicago, and have steak and potatoes with Michelle in the evening, just before the debate.

UPDATE:

Matt Viser (@mviser)

"I was privileged," John Kerry tells CNN of helping Obama with debate prep. "I was chosen from binders of senators."

A South Florida debate day tableau by The Atlantic's Molly Ball. This picture has been edited for blog viewing. It has been formatted to fit your screen. Photograph: Molly Ball

8.39pm BST

Carter calls Israeli-Palestinian status quo 'catastrophic'

As he makes his case tonight for a return to the US project of shaping history in the Middle East, Governor Romney will have to be careful not to summon one phantom in particular: George W. Bush.

President Obama might likewise prefer to leave out the legacy of an unpopular former president from his party, but Jimmy Carter isn't making it easy.

Today Carter, who is on a two-day trip to Jerusalem, called the Israeli-Palestinian status quo "catastrophic" and "blamed Israel for the growing isolation of east Jerusalem from the West Bank," the Associated Press reported.

"We've reached a crisis stage," said Carter, 88. "The two-state solution is the only realistic path to peace and security for Israel and the Palestinians."

Carter and a group of dignitaries from Norway and Ireland met with Israeli President Shimon Peres and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. Carter said Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu had not done enough to promote peace.

"Up until now, every prime minister has been a willing and enthusiastic supporter of the two-state solution," Carter said.

Updated at 8.46pm BST

8.26pm BST

Danger Room scribe Spencer Ackerman sees the president in an uphill battle tonight to explain how his Middle East policy hangs together.

"For all the silly gotcha moments about who cried 'terror' and when, the Benghazi attack provides a chance for both candidates to address major concerns about their approaches to a chaotic world," Ackerman wrote Sunday.

He says the lack of foreign policy disasters on Obama's watch has created a "a veneer of competence" but wonders "if there are about to be several Benghazis on Obama’s watch." The attack exposed the administration's Middle East policy as reactive and "revealed the U.S. doesn’t understand the forces in the Mideast that the Arab Spring has unleashed," Ackerman says:

Militants in Benghazi suspected of involvement in the consulate attack are unimpressed by the bin Laden raid. Instead, Obama needs to explain how his approach to the Middle East adjusts to the assault and takes the region actively in a direction amenable to U.S. interests. Treating the attack as “non-optimal,” as Obama said to Jon Stewart, is a cop-out, one that can reinforce an impression that Obama has been lucky, not wise — which Romney is sure to cultivate.

8.10pm BST

If Romney were president...

If Romney were president, would he already have bombed Iran? If Romney were president, would he have advertised American support for Iran's Green Revolution? If Romney were president, would American soldiers still be in Iraq?

Judging by Romney's major foreign policy speech of the campaign so far, delivered at the Virginia Military Institute on Oct. 8, the answer to all three questions is yes.

Romney equates the US responsibility to the Arab Spring with the US responsibility to rebuild Europe after World War II. Romney outlined revolutionary activity in the past two years in the Middle East and concluded:

We have seen this struggle before. It would be familiar to George Marshall. In his time, in the ashes of world war, another critical part of the world was torn between democracy and despotism.

Romney believes in American exceptionalism.

This is what makes America exceptional: It is not just the character of our country—it is the record of our accomplishments. America has a proud history of strong, confident, principled global leadership—a history that has been written by patriots of both parties.

Romney thinks the United States must "shape history" in the Middle East:

But it is the responsibility of our President to use America’s great power to shape history—not to lead from behind, leaving our destiny at the mercy of events. Unfortunately, that is exactly where we find ourselves in the Middle East under President Obama.

Romney believes in total coordination of US policy with Israeli policy:

The relationship between the President of the United States and the Prime Minister of Israel, our closest ally in the region, has suffered great strains. The President explicitly stated that his goal was to put “daylight” between the United States and Israel. And he has succeeded. This is a dangerous situation that has set back the hope of peace in the Middle East and emboldened our mutual adversaries, especially Iran.

Had he been president, Romney would have blared his support for Iran's Green Revolutionaries in the summer of 2009. The Obama administration has explained its concern – shared by the majority of knowledgeable observers – that doing so would have undermined the revolution by making the protesters look like puppets beholden to the Great Satan:

And yet, when millions of Iranians took to the streets in June of 2009, when they demanded freedom from a cruel regime that threatens the world, when they cried out, “Are you with us, or are you with them?”—the American President was silent.

Romney would have left troops in Iraq:

And yet, America’s ability to influence events for the better in Iraq has been undermined by the abrupt withdrawal of our entire troop presence. The President tried—and failed—to secure a responsible and gradual drawdown that would have better secured our gains.

Romney would arm the rebels in Syria:

In Syria, I will work with our partners to identify and organize those members of the opposition who share our values and ensure they obtain the arms they need to defeat Assad’s tanks, helicopters, and fighter jets.

Updated at 8.46pm BST

7.34pm BST

On this the polls agree: the president is killing it on the Latino vote. Tom Kludt of Talking Points Memo points to the PollTracker Average showing Obama maintaining a "massive lead among Latinos that he has held throughout the 2012 election cycle":

Updated at 7.36pm BST

7.28pm BST

Romney and torture

How will Romney distinguish his foreign policy vision from the president's? Both call for sanctions on Iran; both believe in the drone program; Romney even seems to agree with the president's plan to withdraw from Afghanistan in 2014, although that hasn't stopped him from criticizing the president for naming a date.

One policy area where the two may differ is on the use of "enhanced interrogation techniques" to question terror suspects. President Obama shut down Bush's CIA "black sites" and prohibited the torture tactics Dick Cheney argues for to this day.

Romney appears to favor the use of torture in some cases. His team of advisers includes figures from the Bush administration who were among the most aggressive advocates of torture.

"A Romney administration would risk a return to the immoral, illegal, and counterproductive policies of President George W. Bush," writes David Cole in the New York Review of Books:

We were painfully reminded of this prospect on September 27, when The New York Times reported on a leaked memo, written by Romney’s national security advisers, urging him to advocate restoration of the CIA’s “enhanced interrogation techniques,” i.e., to return us to the “dark side” of professionally administered torture and physical cruelty.

Romney did not write the memo himself, of course, and we do not know precisely how he reacted to it. But it is consistent with his public statements, in which he has criticized President Obama for ending the “enhanced interrogation techniques,” and has maintained, against precedent and common sense, that waterboarding is not torture.

The Romney torture memo is unsigned, but was written by members of a committee of Romney national security advisers that included Steven Bradbury, Cully Stimson, David Rivkin, and Lee Casey. These may not be household names, but they should cause alarm among those who care about the United States’ commitment to the rule of law.

Here's one for the conspiracy theorists: the CBS affiliate in Arizona broadcast a graphic Friday afternoon showing that Barack Obama had been reelected president of the United States.

The twist: the election hasn't happened yet.

The explanation: the station was just practicing.

The suspicious detail: why not practice with a graphic showing that Mitt Romney won?

If you have the stomach for this sort of thing you can visit Sarah Palin's Facebook page to sample the outrage, such as this witticism from commenter Jorge Lopez Jr: "Goes right along with their name, 'see BS.'"

Michele Wallace of KPHO told The Daily Caller it was a mistake with a test graphic:

On Friday October 19th during a test of KPHO- CBS 5’s election returns software we inadvertently aired a test graphic for about 15 seconds in an episode of Peoples Court. The mistake was caught quickly and taken off the screen. With the election about 2 weeks away, the TV station routinely tests its equipment to ensure our viewers have the very latest’s results on election night. We regret the error and apologize to any viewer who was confused by the mistake.

The CBS affiliate in Phoenix broadcast a graphic declaring President Barack Obama the winner of the 2012 election, but the election hasn't happened yet. Photograph: CBS

5.59pm BST

Todd Akin says the darndest things, volume MCMXXVI: The Republican candidate for senator in Missouri infamous for believing the female body has a mechanism to stop conception in the case of "legitimate rape" now has compared his opponent, Sen. Claire McCaskill, to a dog who would play fetch for the president.

“She goes to Washington, D.C., and it’s a little bit like, uh, you know, one of those dog, you know, ‘fetch,’” Akin said at an event Saturday.

There's not a lot of polling performed in Missouri but the race appears to be very tight. Republicans have started to put money back into Missouri despite Akin's time in the doghouse.

RNC chief Reince Priebus, Governor Mitt Romney and many, many other Republican leaders told Akin to drop out of the race, but the party was unable to call their man to heel.

UPDATE: Rick Tyler is a top Akin adviser:

HuffPost Hill (@HuffPostHill)

If Todd Akin were a dog, he'd be a "Bernese Mountain Rape Apologist" RT @rickwtyler: If Claire McCaskill were a dog, she'd be a "Bullshitsu"

Will Romney re-litigate moment on Libya he fumbled at Hofstra?

The enterprising Steven Sotloff of Time magazine has tracked down Libyan security guards at work when the Benghazi mission was attacked. Amazingly, US state department officials have yet to speak with "many" of the guards to get their versions of what happened, Sotloff reports. Read the account here:

As the Americans stumbled through the smoldering villa, the attackers let loose with another barrage from the southern or back entrance of the consulate compound, throwing grenades and firing RPGs. “There was 20 minutes of aggressive fire,” Wisam said. “The Americans wanted to get out but didn’t know what to do.”

All agree that Benghazi will be a main topic of discussion at tonight's debate. Do you think Romney – who can be punctilious to a fault about debate rules and persistent to a fault when it comes to rebutting each of his opponents' points – will try to revisit the round he lost last week on Long Island?

A raging debate broke out after the debate over whether Obama's reference in the Rose Garden to Benghazi as an "act of terror" really counted as the president declaring the assault to have been a "terrorist attack." Will Romney, feeling unfairly beaten in the last round, bring the point up?

There is bad news for Mr. Romney as well, however. The “new normal” of the presidential campaign is considerably more favorable for him than the environment before the first debate, in Denver. However, it is one in which he still seems to be trailing, by perhaps 2 percentage points, in the states that are most vital in the Electoral College.

Updated at 4.49pm BST

4.32pm BST

The average 9-point lead Obama holds among women plus the average 9-point lead Romney holds among men appears to point to one of the largest gender gaps in history, 538 pollster Nate Silver writes.

In presidential elections since 1972, according to Silver's data, the gender gap of 18 between Obama and Romney was exceeded only once, in 2000, when a 20-point split opened between Al Gore and George W. Bush. Gore enjoyed an 11-point advantage among women, while Bush was up 9 points among men.

Note that the "gender gap" takes into account the candidates' relative performances with both men and women, as opposed to one candidate's simple lead among only women or among only men.

One interesting tidbit from Silver's chart: which president, in which election, do you think opened up the biggest-ever lead among women?

The year was 1996, the opponent was Bob Dole and the candidate was Bill Clinton, who got out to +16 with women.

No other candidate since 1972 has gotten past +14 with women, and that was Nixon in one of the most lopsided races in history against the late George McGovern, may he rest in peace.

But look at Ronald Reagan in 1984. It was another lopsided election, but even so the Gipper's +25 lead among men (+12 among women) is astounding. He might as well have had bumper stickers, "Men Vote Reagan."

4.10pm BST

Who disagrees with Harry? Which two states do you think are the most interchangeable on this list? Florida and Virginia?

If he is reelected, what would President Obama hope to achieve in a second term, apart from consolidating his work of the first four years? That's a plenty big job, EJ Dionne writes – but it's only the start of a specific list of initiatives a second-term Obama could be expected to pursue. The list includes a big budget deal and immigration reform:

But these are responses to what Obama has proposed. To disagree with some of Obama’s specifics is to acknowledge that the specifics exist.

Some dismiss what an Obama second term might achieve by claiming that it will be mainly concerned with consolidating his first-term accomplishments. If these had been trivial, that might be a legitimate criticism. But does anyone seriously believe that implementing a massive new health insurance program that will cover an additional 30 million Americans is unimportant? Can anyone argue that translating the Dodd-Frank Wall Street reforms into workable regulations is a minor undertaking?

The running mates are running hard today. Joe Biden has two rallies in Ohio, as if that state mattered. Paul Ryan is to host two rallies in Colorado.

Michelle Obama is in Florida; Ann Romney is in Wisconsin.

3.43pm BST

If you haven't seen it you should check out this photo of Mitt Romney on the beach in Florida, where he presided over a game of flag football between campaign staffers and members of the media on Sunday. Romney spent the weekend in Florida preparing for tonight's foreign policy debate.

Mr. Romney, wearing black shorts, a black Adidas T-shirt and gray sneakers, walked down to the beach after spending the morning at church, and kicked off the game with a coin toss. (The press won that part, with a call of “tails,” prompting Mr. Romney to quip, “That’s the last call you guys are getting.”)

The president is scheduled to land at Palm Beach International airport at 1:40 pm ET, James Hohmann notes. Tonight's debate is at Lynn University in Boca Raton. It is scheduled to begin, as usual, at 9 pm ET and run for an hour-and-a-half. CBS News' Bob Schieffer will hold the moderator's chair.

Updated at 8.41pm BST

3.34pm BST

This week's New Yorker includes an endorsement of Barack Obama for president. The endorsement isn't news as such, as it would have been had the editors gone for the other guy, but the 3,500-word essay makes a persuasive case for reelection, one likely to be widely circulated in these last 15 days. Here are the final two paragraphs:

The choice is clear. The Romney-Ryan ticket represents a constricted and backward-looking vision of America: the privatization of the public good. In contrast, the sort of public investment championed by Obama—and exemplified by both the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act and the Affordable Care Act—takes to heart the old civil-rights motto “Lifting as we climb.” That effort cannot, by itself, reverse the rise of inequality that has been under way for at least three decades. But we’ve already seen the future that Romney represents, and it doesn’t work.

The reëlection of Barack Obama is a matter of great urgency. Not only are we in broad agreement with his policy directions; we also see in him what is absent in Mitt Romney—a first-rate political temperament and a deep sense of fairness and integrity. A two-term Obama Administration will leave an enduringly positive imprint on political life. It will bolster the ideal of good governance and a social vision that tempers individualism with a concern for community. Every Presidential election involves a contest over the idea of America. Obama’s America—one that progresses, however falteringly, toward social justice, tolerance, and equality—represents the future that this country deserves.

Updated at 3.35pm BST

3.09pm BST

Good morning and welcome to our Monday live blog politics coverage. The candidates meet tonight for their third and final debate. This time they'll be talking foreign policy in Boca Raton, Florida. Here's a summary of where things stand:

•Governor Mitt Romney is expected to go after the president on the fatal attack last month in Benghazi and on the administration's Iran policy. The New York Times reported over the weekend that Iran had signaled its willingness to engage in direct talks with the United States over its nuclear program. Tonight the president will say: "Governor Romney has been unable to articulate any policy ideas that I’m not already doing, except go to war," an administration official tells Mike Allen.

•A new Quinnipiac/CBS poll shows Romney with momentum in Ohio, with Obama now leading 50-45 in the crucial battleground state. On September 26 the poll had Obama out front 52-43. A new NBC/WSJ poll shows the candidates tied nationally, 47-47. The last such poll was conducted before the debates and showed Obama out front 49-46.

•The Obama camp is out with a new web video, "Rebuilding," quoting Governor Romney's opposition to withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan. The tagline: "It's time to stop fighting over there and start rebuilding here." (h/t: Alexander Burns)