Established in 2008, this blog is an independent, common sense, look at challenges and opportunities in sports and financial investing, with occasional diversions as my mood takes me. I am not a tipster, nor is this a Profit and Loss report either. They are boring.

Friday, 21 March 2014

Six years ago today, on a Friday the 21st March, the Chilean architect and painter Guillermo Jullian de la Fuente died, but the day is now remembered and celebrated as that when a young Cassini revealed himself to the world.Or to put it another way, the Green All Over blog was launched.1,746 posts later, and the darn thing is still going strong with 639,000 hits per my counter, and according to Blogger, some 807,000 hits. Will we hit a million by this time next year? Will the blog still be active this time next year?The first two comments were from Graeme Dand (before he turned into TFA) and Mark Iverson, both still in short trousers at that time, and both still very much alive and well in the betting / trading world.I have a standing joke that I trot out every anniversary, which might not be side-splittingly hilarious, but I like my traditions, so here we go.

Not all the 1,746 posts have been hugely interesting admittedly, but the other 1,745 have been...

Certainly not many betting related blogs have been around for so long, and I probably wouldn't have expected to still be here six years on back in 2008. There are a few reasons why I'm still here. One is that I am still profitable - as any blogger will tell you, it's easy to blog when things are going well, not so easy when they are not. The golden days have gone with the Super Premium Charge, but it was always just a part-time hobby, and in many ways the money was secondary to the intellectual challenge of trying to find edges and competing with others.It helps that I am multi-dimensional so far as my interests in sports are concerned too. If your focus is on one sport, it's not so easy to find new angles to discuss.The blog has evolved too, as have my Elo based ratings. Looking back, some of my ideas were rather basic, (OK, embarrassing), but there is no shame in that so long as you learn from your mistakes and improve.The FTL gives me regular content too, at least during the football season, as do the comments and mentions I find of the blog around the blogosphere. And then there are my 'campaigns' to call out nonsense, unfairness or wrong doings where I see it, and in betting, there is a lot of that.And this year of course, there was one individual's attempts to silence me with his ludicrous claim to have reported me to the police - my 'crime'? Linking to another blog post. That was an interesting saga which generated a lot of additional hits.Oh yes, and a thick skin helps too. I'll be out celebrating for a couple of days, but I will be back for a seventh year of stimulating content. Happy Spring.

5 comments:

Anonymous
said...

On recent posts. I am a little disappointed in Pete Nordsted as someone who has bought his books and followed his work for a few seasons (not bet his selections) I can only see his recent under/over tipping as a scam. Rather harsh maybe, but by doing that, as has been pointed out someone will always be winner.

I actually do my gambling similar to Pete as I grade teams in a similar way and compare teams this way. So is this system fundamentally flawed?Chelsea v Arsenal O2.5I have grouping results A v A over the last 2 seasons and this season as a combined 75%, recent form in the last 10 games against grouping as a figure very similar and recent form last 10 games as 65%. This suggest to me that a price at above evens currently offers me some value (here comes a 0 - 0). So is this way of gambling flawed? Surely results for Chelsea and Arsenal against teams of similar skill and ability are more of an accurate measurement than results that include games against Norwich, Stoke etc?Last 2 seasons man U have been an A team, this season probably last couple of months I have changed them to a A/B rating and assess them with a bias mainly on the B team results. So my grading is quite flexible. Equally the recent injury to Lukaku at Everton made me rate all Everton’s positive results and goal ratings slightly less than what my system produced as I couldn’t see them having as good an attacking threat without him.

I would appreciate some feedback on my statement, questions as I am a novice who has been gambling seriously (keeping records) for about 10 years and I am always looking to improve.

My personal opinion is that Peter fell victim to the brief. Youraverage punter doesn't want to bet the unders they want goals and lotsof them after all who wants to spend 90 mins of their life watching a 0-0, unless your name is Cassini and you have picked them as a draw/under 1.5.

About Me

I have had a life-long interest in sports and after studying Pure Mathematics with Statistics at secondary school, have been fascinated by odds and probability.
The first system I came up with was a simple one - back the favourite and double up after a loss until a winner. Simple enough in theory, and I told my Dad about it. Not being a betting man himself, he ran it by some of his colleagues, and came home to tell me that it wouldn’t work because a long losing run would mean that the bank would be empty. Then there was always the possibility that the winner would be returned at odds-on, meaning that the total returns would not match the outlay. Not what a ten year old wants to hear! Only slightly daunted, I then went on a search for the Holy Grail, the secret to riches that I knew was out there somewhere. Finally in 2004 I stumbled across an article about Betting Exchanges and four years on I am able to make a steady profit. I am at that age where I can start thinking about retirement and anything I make from trading sports will bring that day forward.