American songwriter is bookies' favourite for 2011 Nobel Prize for Literature
- but Swedish Academy write off chances of giving the prize to some
'literary UFO'.

Nobel Prize Permanent Secretary Peter Englund branded the wild betting for this year's Literature award "crazy speculation" after singer Bob Dylanbecame the favourite to win the 2011 prize. As it turned out, it was all speculation because the award was won by Swedish poet Tomas Transtromer.

Dylanwas 100/1 to win last week but a rush of bets meant his odds tumbled to 5/1. Dylan has won a Pullitzer Prize for his writing but it would be the biggest shock in the history of the prize if he won. The Nobel Committee never releases the names of writers who are under consideration, so the betting list is simply speculation.

In addtion, the award has never gone to a songwriter and Englund, a Swedish author and historian, added: "It's crazy. They contain a lot which is just plain speculation. They have to have someone at the bottom of the list, which gives 150 times the money or something, so obviously they have to let in someone who is completely unlikely, some literary UFO."

Europeans have now won eight of the past 11 prizes and the Swedish Academy has previously been criticised for ignoring writers from other parts of the world.

Last year's laureate, Peruvian Mario Vargas Llosa, was the first South American writer to win the award since Gabriel Garcia Marquez in 1982. No American has won since Toni Morrison, in 1993, although American authors Philip Roth, Don DeLillo, Cormac McCarthy, Joyce Carol Oates and Thomas Pynchon were repeatedly mentioned as possible candidates.

Among the rivals to eventual winner Tomas Transtromer for the £942,000 prize were Peter Carey of Australia and Argentinian author Cesar Aira. The main contenders were 81-year-old Syrian poet Adonis (Ali Ahmad Said Asbar) and Japanese novelist Haruki Murakami.

When Dylan won his Pullitzer Prize in 2008, it was for "his profound impact on popular music and American culture, marked by lyrical compositions of extraordinary poetic power." As Dylan ended up missing out, perhaps it is worth remembering Dylan's own lyrics for his song Rambling, Gambling Willie:

So all you rovin’ gamblers, wherever you might be, The moral of the story is very plain to see, Make your money while you can, before you have to stop, For when you pull that dead man’s hand, your gamblin’ days are up.