Sherman on the Yankees’ plans for Phil Hughes

The Yankees are said to be “aggressive pushing” Phil Hughes on the trade market in hopes of landing a bat, but Joel Sherman says they aren’t just looking for a short-term fix. They want a position player they can control for multiple years. Sherman hears the team will make Hughes a qualifying offer after the season and either recoup a draft pick or get him back on a one-year deal (if he accepts), which they don’t mind. “(They) believe, at worst, he would be tradeable if that were the case,” he writes.

Hughes, 27, has a 4.57 ERA and 4.48 FIP in 102.1 innings spread across 18 starts this season. His strikeout (7.74 K/9 and 20.5 K%) and walk (2.29 BB/9 and 6.1 BB%) rates are better than the league average but not eye-popping, and, as usual, his bugaboo remains the long ball (1.58 HR/9 and 11.8% HR/FB). Hughes would almost certainly benefit from playing in a larger home park, which is why the Yankees don’t expect him to accept the qualifying offer after the season, Sherman says. Given his age and strong non-homer peripherals, other clubs are expected to offer multi-year pacts this winter. Either way, this next few weeks figure to be Phil’s last in pinstripes. It’s just a question of whether he’s traded or walk away on his own.

This means that the Yankees believe they can get something of value which is the opposite of what most think. And it’s likely they have certain names in mind so that being the case, base don one of the commenting rules their trade proposal must suck.

But wait it’s Cashman so does his trade proposal suck? I am interested in how this paradox is resolved.

jsbrendog

what? so shopping him around in the hopes someone gets jumpy and desperate and overpays is dumb? there is no paradox. there is a gm who is in a great bargaining position albeit with a meh player. If no one overpays and gives the yanks something worth while? fine, they walk away, and either get a pick or phil on a 1 yr contract which means they can revisit a trade next year or just let him pitch again.

Honestly, the way the rotation is looking next year, as of now, hughes doesn’t look to be the worst on a 1 yr ~15 mil deal esp since he could prob get at least what Lohse got. Wouldn’t he take the 3 for ~35 instead of the 1 for ~15 just in case he gets hurt? I would.

JobaWockeeZ

It’s facetious. If you make a proposal for Phil hughes you get made fun of and people just get lazy and say your trade proposal sucks.

Cashman is doing the same thing, he’s making “sucky” trade proposals.

jsbrendog

I mean, we don’t know for real what is happening but based on the framing of all the reports it sounds like

“Hey, Hughes is available”

“Well, what do you want?”

“well, what will you give me?”

“A”

“nope, sorry, ill just keep him and offer a QO, bye.”

click.

“ok ok ok, how about d?”

“ehhhhhhhhhhhh nahhhhh, still not enough.”

i’m guessing it is a how much do you really want him/think you need him cause I don’t have any real need to dump him kind of thing.

Preston

This article says they want a player who provides more value than half a season of Phil + a first round draft pick. If they don’t get him they’re going to keep him and extend the QO. That is exactly the proper way to value him.

Wolfgang’s Fault

My last several comments vanished to I don’t know where, but I agree w/Preston’s assessment.

Mac

The difference is that Cashman is having discussions with actual GMs. The trade proposal meme supposes that you have no idea what another team would or would not offer. Cashman and whoever is on the other end of the phone are probably starting with trade proposals that greatly favor their teams and bargaining towards a fairer deal. On here people are mostly throwing out the equivalent of the initial Cashman deal that favors the Yankees.

nycsportzfan

I think Hughes will bring decent value as look what AJ BUrnett did when he left NY. Teams will think the same thing about Hughes whos also Younger and even tough he’ll be a FA, won’t be overly expensive, and has expierence in Pen as well as Starting.

Add in a B prospect, and we could get a decent player, that along with Jeter and Granderson and hopefully Cervelli coming back, should really lengthen the lineup. I’d love Carlos Ruiz to come over.

Kvothe

Man, I remember reading his blog back when he used to do that. Seemed like a nice guy and I was really hoping he’d become a mainstay in the rotation.

He’s still really young, so he may yet blossom into an above-average/good starter. Change of scenery/ballpark might be for the best.

jsbrendog

i maintain that phil hughes value to the yankees (this yr or for the pick) is more than they would get in return. He just isn’t worth that much on the trade market when you take everything into account. Do I hope Cashman can pull of a Carlos Santana type deal? Sure! But if he does it is a coup.

I’m One

I agree with you that he offers a good amount of value to the Yankees. What his value is to other teams is up to that team, so why not ask around? The Yankees are in almost a “no lose” situation, as they either get the position player they want, or they get to keep Phil, who, at worst is about #4 starter. They still need that this season and, most likely, next as well.

The value of something is what someone else is willing to pay. I’m fine wiht the Yankees finding out what Phil’s value is.

jsbrendog

that’s exactly what I said in every statement so far in this thread. I also maintain the point that it is unlikely and if it occurs will be a job well done by Cashman and co. (although more so a poorly done job by the overpaying team)

I’m One

Not necessarily an overpay. Maybe there’s a team out there that needs a #4 (or however you rank him) starter more than they need a bat or position player the Yankees need. It might be a smart move for both teams. I hope tha Yankees find that team or don’t make a move. Not sure that team exists, however.

jjyank

Agreed. I am very much against trading Hughes. Offer him the QO, take the pick. I’m pretty confident that someone will offer Hughes enough money to make him decline. Yes, I know that the QO and FA offers don’t happen at the same time, but I’d have to imagine that his agent knows that a 27 year old starter can get a multi-year deal.

jjyank

Disclaimer: I am very much against trading Hughes unless Cashman can fleece somebody. But with the QO in play, there needs to be a first round caliber talent coming back, and I just don’t see that happening in a trade for half a year of Hughes.

jsbrendog

right. if you get a carlos santana/zack wheeler offer you say yes, no backsies and then immediately wake phil’s ass up and drive him there yourself.

The Bastard

Your trade proposal sucks.

jsbrendog

reading comprehension fail….although I’m not surprised with a name like that.

JobaWockeeZ

If you can name me one time a 4.50 FIP pitcher got a multi year deal with an AAV of ~ 10 million dollars let me know.

jsbrendog

kyle lohse – xfip 4.42 career 3 yrs $33 million

jarrod washburn, coming off 4.35 fip 4.73 xfip in 2005 signed a 4 yr $37.5 mill contract. That was in 2006. 7 years ago. Now, the same guy costs even more.

i could go on but it is quitting time

jjyank

Edwin Jackson, coming off a 4.03 ERA and a 3.74 xFIP and a career 4.45 ERA and 4.25 xFIP got 4/52. So what I’ve learned here is…don’t listen to JobaWockeeZ? Because someone will offer multiple years at $10+ mil per year. I’d be shocked if that didn’t happen.

JobaWockeeZ

Here are Edwin’s stats ever since he became a full time starting pitcher.

4.15 FIP
4.16 xFIP
99 FIP-
100 xFIP-

There’s are Phil Hughes stats since 2010 or since he became a full time starting pitcher.

4.46 FIP
4.33 xFIP
105 FIP-
105 xFIP-

Since we obviously can’t overrate Hughes based on stats I guess the next thing we can do is overrate his contract.

Need Pitching & Hitting (but mostly hitting)

Jackson’s better.
I still wouldn’t be at all surprised if Hughes gets a $10+M AAV multiyear deal. Maybe not quite what Jackson got, but something close. Unless he has a disastrous second half. There’ll almost always be some team desperate for for pitching willing to overlook some of his warts and think they can get more from him. They likely won’t. But someone will probably try.

jjyank

That’s a .17 xFIP difference. You’re point? Hughes may get a bit less than Jackson, but he’s still going to get paid.

But fine I’ll give you Washburn even if it’s not exactly 10 million which is less than the 13 million people think is fair value for Hughes.

jjyank

Who cares how exactly it lines up? You are Phil Hughes’ agent. You are responsible for getting the best deal possible for your client at a prime age of 27. Would you accept a QO or market him? I don’t see the point. If you accept the QO and believe he’s not worth shit beyond that, what do you do next year? Someone will offer Hughes a multi-year contract, and he will decline a QO. I would actually make a bet on that.

The Bastard

Thank God you’re not running this org. No way Hughes gets more than three years or $20M. He’s a failed starter. Some team may bite, but it’s more like a prove yourself deal. Team are much smarter than they used to be. And Phil Hughes offers no real value – his average bWAR/year is 1.1, and that’s including his years as a decent reliever.

Fact is, Hughes is a failed starter.

jjyank

No he’s not. He’s a backend starter, but that’s not necessarily a failed starter. Those still have value. A failed starter can’t start. Hughes can start. He has more value in the rotation. Thank goodness you’re not running any team. Err, scratch that. Apply for the Red Sox GM position.

The Bastard

A starter who was below replacement level last year? You’re entitled to your own opinion, you aren’t entitled to your own set of facts. His value CAN be accounted for. And in his career his highest WAR came in the bullpen. Since that time, he’s been worth about 1 WAR a year.

Phil Hughes is a below average starting pitcher. And he has been his whole career. Had he been drafted by any decent team, or in the third or fourth round, he would have been shunted to the bullpen years ago. He’s a failed starter.

Need Pitching & Hitting (but mostly hitting)

You have a delusional opinion of qualifies as a failed starters. Half of the starters in baseball are below average. Should they all be banished to the bullpen? Back of the rotation starters are by definition below average starters – except in the very best, deepest rotations.

The Bastard

Half of the starters are “below average”? Not according to ERA+. The suckfest comes from the bullpen. Seems like you have a shallow understanding of the term “average”.

The Yankees are a $200M club that aspires to championships. Carrying a crappy, below average starter should not be in their DNA. Paying that guy $15M is the height of idiocy, especially when they can’t trade that guy when he’s making $7M/AAV.

Need Pitching & Hitting (but mostly hitting)

I never said they should pay Hughes $15M. I don’t think they should resign him. If they can get something of value, and have enough healthy other starters, I think they should trade him.

Regardless of your misinformation on that subject, by league average starter, I was referring only to starters. Roughly half of the starters in the league fall above league average for a starter, roughly half fall below league average for a starter.

Snuke Swanky

“He’s a backend starter…Those still have value.”

Not as much value to this team as a marginal offensive upgrade would have.

Slugger27

gil meche maybe?

Need Pitching & Hitting (but mostly hitting)

Gil Meche.

Coming off a 4.48 ERA/ 4.63 FIP season in 2005 (career to that point: 4.65 ERA/4.82 FIP), Meche got 5/$55M.

Need Pitching & Hitting (but mostly hitting)

*2006. His 2005 season was much worse.

jjyank

So the answer to my question “Should I care what Joba WockeeZ has to say?” is a resounding “no”. Though I already knew that.

trr

I just have a hard time imagining that another team is really going to offer what the article says the team is looking for. Then again, this could be posturing, negotiating or just hot air. One thing I do feel sure of: Hughes days with us are numbered, one way or the other.

Gio

Is it really a given that even if he accepts the QO, they’ll trade him? I think it’s likely they’d keep him, then offer him the QO again at the end of 2014 (is that possible?). No chance he’d accept a one-year deal again at age 28.

jsbrendog

that’s a good q. maybe they do maybe they don’t. this really is a win win. someone overpays and they trade him, they don’t, offer a QO, and he declines, netting a pick, or they don’t, offer him a QO, he accepts and they trade him, or they don’t, offer him a QO, he accepts and he is their 5th starter (which would be frustrating as hell but not the worst thing in the world because the evil you know, amirite?)

jjyank

The only caveat there is the budget. Having a ~$15 mil a year back end starter is far from ideal for a team trying to cut costs. Though, as I said above, I do agree that offering the QO would be the right move.

jsbrendog

right, I’m with ya. Is he even tradeable if he accepts? who knows.

jjyank

Expensive, but probably tradable. The 1 year deal part would keep the move from being a salary dump, and if the Yankees eat a few mil, they might get something of value back. I really don’t see him accepting though.

jsbrendog

again, I’m with ya. me either. but it is not an unfair risk to take. like you said, def the right move. give it a few yrs as QO averages go up and HELL NO.

The Bastard

Wait, what!? He’s not tradeable at $5M but he will be tradeable at $15M?

jjyank

Reading comprehension.

Just wouldn’t get much value back. I don’t think the Yankees should trade Hughes, and I don’t think he’d take a QO anyway. Next year of they trade him after him accepting a QO, they might get SOMETHING of value back. Not necessarily equal value. And I’m against that scenario. Reading FTW!

The Bastard

Again, glad you’re not running this org. Nothing in Hughes history suggests he’s worth even $10M. He’s average 1.1 bWAR over the last seven years. That’s maybe a $7-8M AAV. Properly valued, and most team do this at least, he’s looking at best a $20M deal over three years. Even assume some GM idiocy, 4 years at $30M means he still takes the QO.

As for tradeable, they could get not much back now. Except, they need Sherman to drum up interest….

Personally, I’d rather they stick Hughes in the pen and see what they;ve got. They should have done that last year.

Need Pitching & Hitting (but mostly hitting)

bWAR. bWAR. bWAR.

Maybe expand your horizons a bit. There’s much more that goes into what somebody will get on the open market than what their bWAR is. Maybe Hughes only gets 7-8M AAV. I’m guessing he’d have to have a bad second half to drop that low, but we’ll see. But to use somebody’s bWAR as sole proof of what kind of contract they’d get is a bit ridiculous. Gil Meche once got a 5/$55M contract following a 3 year period where he posted a combined 1.7 bWAR.

The Bastard

Gil Meche was how many years ago? How about a few contracts that are indicative of the current contract climate?

Yeah, WAR is so ridiculous as a valuation approach that’s why almost all teams are making decisions based on it or some variant. Times have changed. That’s why you can’t produce recent comparables that favor your preconceived biases.

Need Pitching & Hitting (but mostly hitting)

Yeah, WAR is so ridiculous as a valuation approach that’s why almost all teams are making decisions based on it or some variant.

What are you basing this on? Pure conjecture?
Teams base their decisions on a lot of factors, including statistics and scouting. I’m sure they use some measure to determine a player’s likely total value. I doubt very much they use bWAR as anywhere near the sole basis, if they use it at all.
And I didn’t say it was ridiculous as a valuation approach. I said it was ridiculous to use it as the sole basis for evaluation.
Teams are more interested in their expectations for a player going forward, which would potentially favor Hughes’ peripherals and fWAR over his results indicated in bWAR.

Anthony

I just don’t want to see his face ever again. I don’t care if the Yankees trade him at this upcoming deadline, decide to let him go and get the draft pick…just as long as he’s not a Yankee.

jsbrendog

I am glad you don’t run my business.

Anthony

It’s an irrational (well somewhat irrational) hatred I have for him. I’m just so sick and tired of him, he can’t leave soon enough for me.

jsbrendog

I’d take David Ortiz on the Yankees in a heartbeat if it increased the team’s chances at a WS.

jsbrendog

but hey man, diff’rent strokes

Robinson Tilapia

That’s nice.

trr

Be happy! Your dream will soon come true

I’m One

There are a lot of differing opinions on here, but I feel that way about a lot of the comments people make. Gotta move smartly and not let emotion get involved too much. Doesn’t matter if we’re frustrated by him, if he’s still a useful piece and you can’t get something you need more in return, then you gotta keep him.

jjyank

Right. If Phil Hughes was a mid-level prospect and became who he was today, I wonder how much that would change some of the fan emotion towards him. At some point, we need to let go of the BA scouting reports from 2006 and look at Phil for what he is now.

jsbrendog

yup, exactly. and this is why the “sources” or “anonymous scouts” think they could actually get something of value for him. They are looking at the prospect shine and name brand and projecting still based on age, not the actual extensive ML track record at this point. Hell, maybe they get lucky. it’d be nice.

whozat

Are they? Or are they looking at his peripherals and around at the teams that play in big parks and accurately assessing that there might be some opportunities there?

The NL West is really weak, the Giants have been known to overpay in the past, and Hughes would fit their ballpark really well. Is it crazy to think they’d be interested?

JobaWockeeZ

FIP- and xFIP- are both park and league adjusted. So in a neutral setting they still have Hughes as an awful pitcher.

You need a big ballpark, a great defense and a weak division of hitters to make him above average. That applies to very few teams in the league so I’m going to assume the demand won’t be very high.

The Bastard

And demand isn’t high. That’s why folks are leaking “interest” to Joel Sherman. They are looking to gain something.

Otherwise, if demand were high, why would they be talking? There’s little to be gained at that point.

The press is a tool, especially at the deadline. A tool to be used for your own selfish purposes. And the tools will write most anything, most especially with anonymous sources. What do they have to lose?

JobaWockeeZ

How can you say that and advocate giving 13 million dollars for him?

Murderers’ Row Boat

The team that makes the most sense is the Cardinals. They have farm system to trade from, the money to pay him, and the need at starting pitching.

jsbrendog

a team with carlos martinez and michael wacha waiting and carpenter coming back does not need the pitching.

Gonzo

If they did, they might want to aim higher than Phil Hughes too.

The Bastard

Except for the fact that the Cardinals actually have a clue. They won’t make the mistake of assuming Phil Hughes, of the 2.2 bWAR combined over the last three years, is a starting pitcher. He’s a failed starter.

Need Pitching & Hitting (but mostly hitting)

Nope. He’s a back of the rotation starter.
But I doubt the Cardinals would have much interest.

The Bastard

That’s Pinstriped-glasses. He’s below average and would be 7th or 8th on the Yankee depth chart if they properly ranked him.

7 years later, he’s a failed starter. They should have put him in the pen last year, then they could have at least evaluated if 2009 was a fluke. He could perhaps be a closer in one-inning stints.

Need Pitching & Hitting (but mostly hitting)

He’s below average

No kidding. Hence back of the rotation. Being a back of the rotation starter isn’t being a failed starter. Not being a legit starter is being a failed starter. That’s clearly not the case with Hughes.
He’s clearly one of their top 5 healthy starters right now.

The Bastard

I love all of your qualifications. Except he’s behind Phelps and Nuno on the depth chart. Hell, even Warren deserves more of a shot. He’s NOT a failed starter. Phil Hughes is a failed starter. His best season came as a reliever. That’s his proper place. Smart teams know this. The Yankees do not.

Need Pitching & Hitting (but mostly hitting)

He’s one of their top 5 healthy starters right now. So he should be still in the rotation. Maybe Phelps and Nuno will end up better. Maybe not. It doesn’t affect what Hughes is in any way. A slightly below average starter is a legit #4/5 starter. That’s not a failed starter. A failed starter is a starter who isn’t good enough for even that. If the Yankees have 5 (or more) better starters, then great. It doesn’t change what Hughes is. A legit, back of the rotation starter.

The Bastard

Umm, he’s not “slightly” below average. Just like a 110 ERA+ is significantly above average, a 90 ERA+ is significantly below average.

He’s a failed starter. Had the Yankees realized that even two years ago they could have gotten more value from him. They didn’t and now good riddance.

So very slightly below average ERA, average ERA-, slightly below average FIP- and tERA, above average K%, BB%, WHIP, and SIERA, and horrible HR rate.

Below average starter. Plenty good enough for a back end starter. Still good enough to be a MLB starter =/= failed starter.

Gonzo

Just saw a rumor that the Yanks were in on Alex Rios. Curious if Cooper and Kenny would be interested in working with Phil and extending him.

Just a rumor followed by speculation folks.

forensic

If they could trade him, I’d absolutely do it (not that it’s shocking to anyone familiar with me). I’d also not risk the QO. It’s just too much money in my opinion to risk on his type of skill level in this division and stadium, especially if they’re trying for $189 million.

The Bastard

I don’t understand why folks assume he’s worth $13M and would be tradeable. If anything I read these reports from Sherman as the Yankees trying to gin up interest in him, not that there is significant interest. Remember, there were also reports of interest in Joba. That’s ain’t happening.

Back to Hughes, as a starter he’s never been worth more than 2.0 bWAR (2010). In the last three years combined he’s been worth exactly 2.2 bWAR. In other words, in the last three years *combined*, he hasn’t been worth $13M. Now all of sudden I’m supposed to be okay with them giving him a one-year deal far overpaying for his services? Why cause the risk is losing him? Who cares? He’s a below average starter.

Moreover, there’s the opportunity cost with with Hughes still in the mix. Phelps has proven better. So has Nuno (in much more limited time). Only a few weeks ago folks were arguing Nova is no better and we saw how that argument went poof. If they are making room for Hughes irrationally, that’s one less arm getting MLB experience. This year is exactly when that experience should be given to younger arms cost-controlled longer.

We forget how the “competition” with Joba was rigged for Hughes. But now by continuing to give him starts, they are giving him an extended look that he’s never deserved. He’s a below average pitcher. That’s the epitome of bullpen arm. Stick him back there and if it’s 2009 all over again, sign him for 3 years at $15m. That a far better indication of his value. He ain’t a starting pitcher, that much is clear, no matter how much the Yankees try to inflate his value. He’s a failed starter.

jjyank

“Why cause the risk is losing him?”

No. Reading comprehension fail.

Nobody wants Hughes to be offered a QO and have him accept. Nobody. The camps are as follows, since you are apparently not aware:

1. Trade Hughes now.

2. Offer Hughes a QO and go for a draft pick.

3. Let Hughes walk without a QO

4. Re-sign Hughes for a below-market rate.

I haven’t seen a single person advocating for $15 mil a year Phil Hughes.

The Bastard

Except he’ll take $15M, if offered. Where’s that option in your list, genius?

No other team is coming close to that AAV. And given a choice, most players always choose more money over more years. They assume they’ll come out better because they are competitive by nature.

#3 is preferable to the Yankees unless they can sign him to a reliever-type deal (say $15M over three years).

#4: Define market rate. Given his 2.2 bWAR over the last 3 years, that’s not even $5M/year.

jjyank

It’s not all about AAV. Some players like multi-year security. And he will assuredly get more than $15 mil overall. As for “$20 mil at best”, maybe you should scroll up a bit. I’d bet money, real, non-internet money, that he will get at least 10-15 mil more than that.

The Bastard

Some players? Like who? One year at $15M is far, far preferable to even three years at $30M. Security is fan-driven BS. These players take the money now and assume they’ll get the money later. Period.

Glad you have no argument left though. Hughes most certainly takes the QO, and if the Yankees need Sherman to drum up interest this year at $7M AAV, they won’t be trading him next year at twice that amount.

jjyank

There are plenty of players that take years over AAV. You’re getting crazy now. Would you take $15 mil in one year or 30-40 over several? It’s not a slam dunk, and Hughes has to decide on a QO before those offers would come in. I bet he declines.

The Bastard

Plenty? Then name one. Or three.

You ASS-U-ME:
1) He gets multiple offers.
2) Are multiple years.
3) Are significantly more money than $15M

With all of those assumptions, making an ass of yourself, what supports them? If you are paying attention, clearly it’s not Hughes’ history of actual performance. There he’s done nothing more than to get a swingman type contract. Those seldom top even $5M/AAV. Sure enough, that’s about Hughes’ yearly value since his MLB career began.

jjyank

LOL

Need Pitching & Hitting (but mostly hitting)

Security is fan-driven BS.

As evidenced by all the many players signing multi-year extensions and delaying their free agency. LOL.

The Bastard

Are you moron? Buying out free agency is far, far different than taking a higher AAV in free agency. There the market sets the AAV. Before reaching free agency, the value is whatever you can get.

In Hughes case, the more naive among you assume he’ll get significantly more than the QO. There’s exactly no evidence to support this assumption and certainly not his actual performance.

Need Pitching & Hitting (but mostly hitting)

In both cases, they are sacrificing potential bigger $$ going year to year by taking more guaranteed $$ over the longer term. Plenty of players sacrifice FREE AGENT YEARS with their extensions.

There’s exactly no evidence to support this assumption and certainly not his actual performance

Not true. There have been worse pitchers than Hughes who have gotten big contracts. Hughes may. He may not. I think a lot rides on how he does in the second half this year. It’s very possible he ends up with a $40M+ contract if he finishes the season relatively strong. It’s possible he ends up with a significantly lower, make-good type contract if he has a bad finish.

The Bastard

“Plenty of players sacrifice FREE AGENT YEARS with their extensions.”

Again, not even remotely the same. They have no choice at the time they sign those deals. The offer from their team isn’t one offer with the FA years bought out and another with. They are given one choice, also removing the stress of arbitration.

“Not true. There have been worse pitchers than Hughes who have gotten big contracts.”

Again, name recent examples… You can’t.

Need Pitching & Hitting (but mostly hitting)

They are given one choice

False. They have 2 choices. Go year to year with the potential of much bigger $$ if they perform well or take the security. It’s still a choice. It’s still taking security over potentially higher $$.

trr

Name calling only demeans your argument.

It’s likely that the total value of any potential Hughes multi – year contract will easily exceed $30m . That could induce him to accept that offer over the one year QO.

Personally, I’m beginning to gravitate towards the position of trading him now. The big question is what value can we get for him? Might it be possible to package him, Joba, and a b list prospect for some better value?

All we can do now is hope the FO is exploring all possible options….I still think Hughes’ days in pinstripes are numbered

The Bastard

“It’s likely that the total value of any potential Hughes multi – year contract will easily exceed $30m ”

Really? Based on what? I keep asking for recent examples and they don’t exist! Name one or three contracts in the last two years that suggest this. You can’t. So you all peddling this BS are just tossing out a strawman then defending it. It’s nonsense.

Personally I say move him to the pen, then see if he can approach his 2009 again. If so, there’s an argument to be made for a $20M over 3 years deal. That’s close to this true value right now. Heck, call him a swingman.

Amazing in hindsight now much they babied him. Now I could give two sheets if his arms falls off.

trr

You seem to have an irrational hatred of this particular player for no discernible reason.

We hope to hear from you over the winter after the final determination is done.

Robinson Tilapia

Disagree.

Snuke Swanky

“Security is fan-driven BS.”

Although it’s not as absolute as this above statement, I somewhat agree and think that this ties into the time value of money.

It all depends on what Phil thinks he can get in terms of multi year deals on the FA market.

The Bastard

Or what he’s offered. Given a choice between $15M for one year or even $30M for three, it’s a no-brainer, especially at his age.

Finally though someone who understand opportunity costs…

Need Pitching & Hitting (but mostly hitting)

Do you use stats other than bWAR?
It’s a decent stat, but really WAR for pitchers isn’t the best. Use fWAR, and the picture changes quite a bit. There are plenty of other stats that show Hughes to be a slightly below average AL starter, of which there have been instances of similar pitchers getting multi-year, $10M+ AAV deals.
I think whether Hughes does or not will ultimately be decided on the strenght of his second half.

The Bastard

Do you understand stats? To assume Hughes will have a second half any different than the last four years means you don’t.

As for fWAR, that’s 1.7 fWAR average over the last four years. That’s also not worth even $10M AAV.

As for my preference for bWAR, when given the choice to assume a positive or negative value for Hughes in 2010 bWAR gets it right while fWAR does not.

Both WARs are very relevant to the discussion at hand. Teams have gotten very good in using WAR-like approaches to value contracts. Spending tens of millions and getting it wrong will do that.

Need Pitching & Hitting (but mostly hitting)

Do you understand stats?

Yes, and I understand how to use more than one of them.
I do prefer bWAR to fWAR for pitchers, but I don’t put a huge amount of stock in either one, while as far as I know, there’s no evidence that the market favors one over the other, or even uses either at all.

The 1.7 fWAR average conveniently includes an injury year. In his healthy, full years as a starter, his fWAR’s have been 2.5 and 2.3, which would make sense for a $10M+ AAV.

To assume Hughes will have a second half any different than the last four years means you don’t.
I didn’t assume anything. He is capable of having a good half year. And frankly, it probably wouldn’t even have to be all that good for him to get a multiyear 10M+ AAV contract. Even about league average might be enough. It’s the full season stats that you would expect to fall in line with his normal performances. I didn’t speculate either way on whether he would have a good second half or bad second half.

The Bastard

“In his healthy, full years as a starter, his fWAR’s have been 2.5 and 2.3, which would make sense for a $10M+ AAV.”

And his 2013? Nice of you to ignore that. Also nice of you to say you prefer bWAR, but selectively choose fWAR here.

“And frankly, it probably wouldn’t even have to be all that good for him to get a multiyear 10M+ AAV contract. ”

Even a 3 year $30M/AAV is about the best he’d do in the current climate. There, he’s much better off with the QO.

Need Pitching & Hitting (but mostly hitting)

His 2013 isn’t a full year yet. I said full, healthy years.
Which is why I said how he finishes this year will likely have a big impact of what he’ll be able to get as a free agent.
I’m not selectively choosing anything. I’m just presenting the alternative to the bWAR you keep harping on, not saying it’s any more or less relevant to bWAR.
Personally, I wouldn’t give Hughes a 3 year deal. I don’t think it makes sense to give back of the rotation starters long term deals.
I think Jeremy Guthrie would be a fairly close recent comp (3/$25M) though I’d think Hughes will do better than that, given that he’s younger and is coming off a better year before free agency (if he finishes this year OK). Given that Guthrie got 3/25M just recently, I’d say 3/$30M is probaly a reasonable starting point for what Hughes next contract will likely be.

King of Fruitless Hypotheticals

He’s actually darn close the American League definition of average starter.

The Bastard

No he isn’t. 2.2 bWAR over 2.5 years is not a league average starter. He’s distinctly below average, greater than 10% in fact.

Johnny D

I see Troll has resurfaced.

King of Fruitless Hypotheticals

Isn’t Petco a huge park?

Crush

I think a Pence for Hughes deal is great for each side.

Giants get pitching and in a big home park which would certainly help keep Hughes’ HR rate down.

Yankees get a good bat and outfielder in the very unique Pence.

Seems to make quite a bit of sense for both sides. Not too much risk in a player for player deal and correct me if I’m wrong but I believe both are FA after the season so if it doesn’t work out there’s not further strings attached. Maybe it isn’t as perfect as I think it but it at least makes sense to me.

Nat King Kong

You didn’t answer the question at all. Completely skipped over it.

Again, show me where I “got mad” at anyone, other than you after you accused me of these things?

As to your points about O’Brien needing to improve, etc., I’ve already said all that myself. I agree. Of course he has to continue to improve. So do all the other guys on the list. I’ve never claimed that I know I’m right and I know you’re wrong. We won’t know who’s right and who’s wrong about O’Brien for years.

You, on the other hand, seem to have a need for me to “admit I’m wrong,” as you said in a previous post, and when I don’t you have to resort to accusing me of “getting mad at everyone” and “being unreasonable,” which I’ve challenged you on.

Again, as I have tried to say about a dozen times, I have no problem with anyone who disagrees with me. You have valid points, and I respect them. I just happen to disagree with you.

Nat King Kong

Sorry guys, was commenting in another thread and it somehow got posted here.

Apologies. Carry on…

Preston

It’s fine, we disagree, I was never mad at you. Passionate opinionated commenters are what make this site fun. To me contact is the hardest thing to learn, so huge K’s at that low of a level are bothersome. You like the power, I get it. I actually agree that he should be considered for the top 30. But I also get why Mike is dismissive of him.

Tyrone Sharpton

Glad to see the both of you kissed and made up.

Robinson Tilapia

Mid/end rotation guy, will eat innings and occasional throw both a gem and a stinker. At deadline time, when teams worry about keeping both starters and pens rested, a pitcher like that may be worth more than whatever direct comparison we’re trying to draw to Edwin Jackson or Kyle Lohse or whatnot.

You trade him if you get the right deal and you aim high. If not, I agree with jjyank’s take.

Preston

We’ve had a bunch of these Phil posts lately, it is shocking how riled up people get about a mid/end rotation guy. Especially since we basically have the same arguments all over again.

TJF

A case of Gatorade for him would be an improvement. Probably the best AAA arms the Yanks have could do about as good as Hughes. If they get ANYTHING of value for him or JOBA it’s considered a victory.

The farm system approach that Cashman has doubled down on repeatedly has led to the current circumstance. The “hoard the youth” movement has led to a bunch of hype about players that never lived up to it. No players are being produced by the farm to replace the aging vets.

Chris Z

I guess I will drop my “save the big 3” shirt off at good will at seasons end.