STILL WAITING FOR CHANGE IN NORTH KOREA

South Korea has elected a new president, Park Geun-hye. The vote was primarily about economics, but Park promised to re-engage North Korea with a policy of “trust building.” Now the North’s leader has responded by calling for a reduction in tensions. Unfortunately, Pyongyang remains an impossible partner.

A year ago North Korea’s “Dear Leader” Kim Jong-il died. Kim’s son, the “Great Successor” Kim Jong-un took the helm of state.

Some observers hoped that the 29-year-old with the attractive wife would be a liberal reformer. Kim announced his determination to improve living standards. Reports circulated that Pyongyang is relaxing controls over both factories and farms.

So far, however, nothing much has happened. Now the reform dream seems dead with the so-called Democratic Republic of Korea’s latest rocket test.

The Kim government insisted that it was merely sending a satellite into space. However, few observers believe that Pyongyang, with active missile and nuclear programs underway, had such limited objectives.

There are several important lessons from the latest incident. First, Kim Jong-un – whether as symbolic leader or genuine ruler – has maintained regime continuity. There has been no improvement in human rights; to the contrary, Pyongyang has tightened border enforcement. So far the leadership has exhibited greater interest in increasing party control over government economic activity than in relaxing control over private economic activity. The hint of “glasnost” after the failed rocket launch in April has been followed with no evidence of “perestroika.”

Second, there may be “moderates” and “technocrats” within the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea government. However, there is no evidence they influence policy. Any serious reform would threaten the positions, livelihoods and even lives of a regime apparatchiks.

Third, despite his rhetoric about economic development, Kim Jong-un continues the regime’s “military first” policy in substance if not name. Although the ouster of army chief of staff Ri Yong-ho may have reimposed party control over the military, the armed services continue to consume a prodigious share of the country’s economic resources. By one estimate the missile program this year cost $1.3 billion, more than three percent of the country’s GDP.

Moreover, North Korea’s nuclear program apparently continues. Rumors abound of a possible nuclear test. Even if the military has lost clout vis-à-vis the party, it retains its predominant position vis-à-vis the people.

Fourth, China is unwilling to even try to restrain Pyongyang. Rising academic and public debate over the value of Beijing’s alliance with the North has not been matched by any change in government policy. Indeed, Chinese investment in the DPRK has increased in recent years. The PRC apparently has decided that North Korea’s survival is a vital interest, no matter how irresponsible Pyongyang’s behavior.

Fifth, it does not pay to reward the DPRK in response to its threats. The Republic of Korea’s “Sunshine Policy” was a well-meaning but failed attempt to buy liberalization in the DPRK. For a decade North Korea pocketed food, money, fertilizer and more without moderating its splenetic rhetoric, reducing its conventional threats or slowing its missile and nuclear programs.