Thursday, December 08, 2005

When The Yellow Dog Barks

Since the inception of this blog, I've generally treated it as somewhat of a respite from my job, which is asset management. Thus, with occasional exceptions, most of my musings here have been only tangentially related to the economy, finance, the stock market, etc. But when I feel something is happening that's important for readers (particularly those not well-versed in economic issues) to understand, I've written about it. This is one of those times.

As I type this, the price of gold is currently at $521, its highest level since 1981. For visual reference, a three year chart appears here. Gold's rise has extremely important implications. As I've written before, while the Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates at a snail's pace since last year, it has also been hurling liquidity at the financial system and the stock market. Gold represents many things to different people, but essentially it's a proxy for excess liquidity. When there's too much money around, the price of gold generally rises as people try to maintain purchasing power against the effects of inflation.

I've been bullish on gold for several years because of the irresponsible fiscal and particularly monetary policy in Washington. For the past few years, the Federal Reserve has reacted to every minor bump in the economy or the stock market with a massive round of fresh liquidity. In the nanny state, economic weakness---or, God forbid, cleansing of overcapacity and malinvestment---can't be tolerated. This is particularly true during an unpopular war led by an unpopular president. Gold loves the nanny state. It adores offensive wars started by politicians who spend without considering the consequences. Regardless of what one thinks about George Soros, one of the all-time great quotes about politics and the financial markets belongs to him: "All of economic history is one lie and deceit after another. Your job as a speculator is to get on when the lie is being propagated and then get off before it is discovered." Gold is the ultimate polygraph machine. It stands as a silent sentinel, taking notes on what it sees and reacting accordingly. Thus, the fresh 24-year high in its price.

Alan Greenspan knows all this. Before he became an integral part of the nanny state's machine, he wrote the following in a 1966 essay titled "Gold and Economic Freedom":

In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value. If there were, the government would have to make its holding illegal, as was done in the case of gold. If everyone decided, for example, to convert all his bank deposits to silver or copper or any other good, and thereafter declined to accept checks as payment for goods, bank deposits would lose their purchasing power and government-created bank credit would be worthless as a claim on goods. The financial policy of the welfare state requires that there be no way for the owners of wealth to protect themselves.

This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism toward the gold standard.

Essentially, Greenspan's point is that gold enforces consequences. That's why Nixon officially decoupled the dollar from gold in the early 1970's; as the U.S. printed excess money to pay the debts from the Vietnam War, it sought to disguise the consequences. Greenspan refers above to the government making the holding of gold illegal. In 1933, Roosevelt outlawed the ownership of gold by U.S. citizens as the government tried to remove any constraint on its ability to reflate during the Great Depression (history buffs can view a copy of FDR's executive order here).

Unlike some of the moonbatty goldbugs out there, I don't see the sharp rise in gold as a sign that financial apocalypse is on the calendar for next week. Rather, it is an indication that stress is rapidly building under the surface. In this case, that can take several forms including the diversification away from dollar-denominated assets by foreigners. This is in fact happening right now, as Russia, China, the Saudis and others have been buying gold. And you've no doubt noticed the increasingly shrill hysteria about Hugo Chavez. Did you think that was just about "democracy"? Venezuela has been using its profits from oil to buy gold as well---unacceptable to statists who abhor consequences. When stress builds in the financial system, usually the results are not manifest right away. The real fallout from the 1987 stock market crash wasn't visible until the early 1990's. Similarly, the hangover from the 1990's stock market bubble hit after Clinton left office, and continues to this day. I suspect that the financial zealotry occurring right now in Washington will have a similar denouement, and gold is simply warning of its increasing inevitability and eventual magnitude.

I also think another recent event is contributing to the sharp rise in gold. On October 24, when Bush nominated Ben Bernanke to replace Greenspan, gold closed at $465. The next day it rose to $472 and has never looked back. Bernanke's nickname on Wall Street is "Helicopter Ben", a reference to a speech he made in 2002 in which he extolled the virtues of the printing press (i.e., dropping money from helicopters if needed). Gold adores a Fed chief who brags about his helicopter pilot's license.

What happens from here? The Federal Reserve can remove liquidity from the financial system, which would take the steam out of both gold and oil. That's not an attractive option for the Fed or the White House since it would also dampen the stock market, which in turn would restrict our ability to pay for this war, impair Bush's ability to rebound in the polls, and disappoint the business community and financial industry (and yes, I'm operating on the manifestly obvious fact that at this point the Fed has completely surrendered the political independence it is supposed to have). Or the Fed can continue to monetize each and every bump in the economy and the stock market, in which case gold will likely head towards $750 and oil for $80 with a concurrent and possibly precipitous rise in geopolitical tensions. That's the essence of the box the Federal Reserve has built for itself, and for us. In its role as sentinel, gold is indicating that the Fed has already chosen its course of action.

And in that regard, here's a bit of advice for the "no consequences" bunch as they prepare to explain away gold's rise. They've done an excellent job of perpetuating the "we're running out of oil!" meme in order to disguise the link between excess money creation and higher oil prices. With gold, start with the line that "gold is reflecting increased prosperity, so higher gold prices are a good thing." When that gets old, trot out "gold is an ancient, barbarous relic." As the desperation builds, try "it's unpatriotic to own gold." Eventually, establish a mantra that "gold is the currency of terrorists." And when there are no more pages in the script, conjure up FDR's spirit for advice on what to do next.

220 Comments:

So, what exactly are you saying? It depends on govt. policy where this goes next? Run out an by gold? Watch the ever changing story over the next few years? Ultimately, what happens to the economy? Is it in the crapper, and we just don't know it yet?

Here's a snippet regarding the gold std: "But do not lament today’s paper-based currency, because the gold-based economic system, which Keynes called a "barbarous relic," was far worse. For with hard currency, there is no control of the money supply—the government is committed to exchange bills for gold, or vice versa, at the will of its citizens. So it cannot expand the supply of paper money; otherwise it will risk depleting its gold supply at the hands of individuals who, detecting the increased numbers of dollar bills in circulation, appear at the Treasury’s window bearing dollars. And it cannot shrink the supply of money, lest individuals, detecting the decreased number of bills, appear at the Treasury’s windows bearing gold.

The problem is that national economies are subject to boom-and-bust cycles. These can be mitigated by printing more money during the busts and by taking bills out of circulation during the booms. The advantages of being able to do this under a paper-based monetary system far outweigh the attendant inflationary tendencies of a paper-money system.

Because of the abandonment of hard currency, the history of bonds in the twentieth century was not a happy one. "

This is like the perfect storm coming... political corruption escalating, two parties - one worse than the other - perpetual pre-emptive wars over oil, huge deficit w/no reasonable solution in site, large numbers of workers reaching retirement, and all 3 legs of our pension system are like a fiddler on a roof.

When companies, like Verizon, say it is going to stop contributing to its employees pension, does that include the separate and non-equal executive pension/compensation.

Gold has been surrepitiously lent by Central Banks to bullion banks who bought US treasuries.The IMF allows this leased gold to be carried on their books-but it is gone forever. Plus there is a 1500 tonne annual deficit re supply/demand. Plus there are HUGE shorts on physical gold and gold mining shares. As CBs continue to inflate to "save" world economies watch gold to soar-$1200.,$2500., you get the picture.

Every reasonable economic thesis should be simple to verify through ancedotes in the real world. When is the last time that ANY investor you know purchased physical bullion as protection against inflation. If investors were worried about inflation, the US yield curve would be much steeper. This is classic price-chasing with ex-post rationalization. Of course, you can make money with such a strategy but it is for the wrong reasons.

No. Gold isn't just protection from inflation here in the US, but protection from currency devaluation the world over. That's why you're seeing gold break out in all major (and some minor) currencies. That this is happening while the yield curve in the US is flat as a pancake should clue you in. Gold isn't your father's inflation hedge; it's international, supply-constained anti-paper.

"When is the last time that ANY investor you know purchased physical bullion as protection against inflation. If investors were worried about inflation, the US yield curve would be much steeper..."

since most workers only have savings in the 401K, iras, how many of these plans even ALLOW for gold purchases. also steep storage/insurance costs can be prohibitive for small investors.i'm an investor & i'm extremely worried about inflation...my monthly bill increases far outweigh any salary gains--my local taxes are going up, my commuting ticket, my health, auto, homeowner insurance. and liability insurance costs are 1 excuse for raising my water/sewer/utility bills. oh yes, also my school, town,county & state taxes. to manage time constraints in my household caused by all parents & kids working & traveling to school,cell phones are only real way to effectively pass messages. that bill went up. my home is old & needs new roof.my heating system is inefficient, so i'm told. my windows are drafty & i can't afford to replace any of it. i'm too much in debt paying college expenses for all 3 kids...yes they work too & have college loans but loans rates are now going up.now about gold being lent by central banks to bullion banks who bought us treasuries. could that be a quid pro quo. who is a "bullion bank".and how is IMF allowed to carry an asset on its books if it cant guarantee its possessioncan i claim to have $ in the bank to pay for new roof & windows but not have to actually hand over $ to contractor.just how does this capitalist system really work?a taxpayer who cant adequately finance my own costs would like to know

It's nice that Congress get an automatic hefty increase in pay each year without doing anything. So our representatives don't worry about inflation. Another example of how they don't live in the real world.

Some say this pay raise is unconstitutional because there isn't an intervening election.

Hasn't anyone here ever heard of an ETF (GLD or IAU)? Now,the "little guy" can buy gold as easily as buying a stock. You don't have to screw around with coins or buy prohibitively expensive gold bars which you then have to store and insure. You don't have to be a "moonbatty gold bug" to do so. It simply makes sense to have some exposure as one more asset class (especially now). If anything, the existence of these ETFs may serve to increase demand.

But doesn't the ETF defeat the purpose of gold? The idea of gold is that it is a hard asset that you have access to should the sht hit the fan. If the case for gold (and by extention the case against paper currency) is valid, you want your gold in the safe along with the 9mm, not in the form of an equity linked index...

In one of Heinlen's books, I don't remember which one, the main character walks into her bank and asks to withdraw her money.

She is given her money in bank notes, i.e cash. The character gives the bank back the notes and says that she wants her money, NOT the promissory notes. She wanted the coinage.

It took them a while but eventually the bank was able to give the character the worth of her account in gold and silver.

If I went into a bank today and asked for my money in silver and gold, I could not get it. Neither your money nor mine is backed by anything real. Our money is only worth something so long as other people believe in its worth.

Anonymous said... "But doesn't the ETF defeat the purpose of gold? The idea of gold is that it is a hard asset that you have access to should the sht hit the fan. If the case for gold (and by extention the case against paper currency) is valid, you want your gold in the safe along with the 9mm, not in the form of an equity linked index..."

First, just so you know, the ETF is not linked to an index of gold mining stocks. Rather, it represents shares in a trust that are backed by actual gold. Still, I don't necessarily disagree with your point. It's just that I don't think it's applicable unless you are buying gold because you expect the end of civilization as we know it. Could happen but I'm not quite that pessimistic - yet. My current best guess (always subject to change) is that one can probably hold gold at least through the end of the Bush administration.

Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage in the US: 2004 looks like real median houshold income is on the decline from 2003 to 2004, P4 (actual not Acrobat) - and then tack on the effects of inflation. P31 is interesting to watch the trend of median and mean from 1967 to 2004, which goes along with the distribution of income stories.

I always wondered will we become one of those societies where you pay a million for something like a watermelon because of inflation --- and is that a good thing. I mean, how far will it go, and who will ultimately put on the brakes. Of course it'll be continually harder for those jobs that don't get valued in our society or we can find substitute labor. It may be a while, but eventually that won't work either.

CR, You say --And in that regard, here's a bit of advice for the "no consequences" bunch as they prepare to explain away gold's rise. They've done an excellent job of perpetuating the "we're running out of oil!" meme in order to disguise the link between excess money creation and higher oil prices.--

So, am I correct in assuming that you don't believe in Hubbert's Peak? Not that there isn't a link between excess liquidity and the price of crude/nat gas. But the moves made by China's CNOOC and India's ONGC earlier this year would suggest that there is also a growing supply-demand imbalance. cf. Matthew Simmons, The Oil Drum and Belly of the Beast.

The world is awash in liquidity but the Fed is directly responsible for little of it. They have been growing their portfolio of assets, monetizing, at about a 7% rate this year but this less than $100 billion dollar boost hardly explains anything except ultra short term market action. (See the Wall Street Examiner, pay site, for discussion and analysis of Fed open market operations and other macro liquidty issues http://www.wallstreetexaminer.com/)

Their baby step rate hikes have however given the all clear signal to speculators (the proper term for what is called investors) to think any piece of paper Wall Street can invent is high quality. (See Doug Noland's 'Credit Bubble Bulletin' for what the name implys. http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_home_com.asp?category=18)

Inflation in basic commodities is a trend which is hardly a secret as many smart observers as well as many dumb shills have been annoucing it. Thus a virtuous circle has now been established. A lot of money is looking for the next big thing and gold is the most obvious.

Keeping speculative money out of commodities has been job one of the Fed and the Establishment since 1980 but now the flood of liquidty has gone worldwide and it is out of their hands. Various conspiracy theories have been propounded as to the supression of the gold price for a long time and there is probably a bit of truth in them. How much is debateable but one thing isn't. That is the big money will not stand in the way of a freight train and probably have found a way to get on board early.

The price or 'value' of anything from Vegas condos to Enron to Google to gold is determined ultimately by the excess money available to chase it. Liquidity is the only fundamental that matters.

M3 has risen 500% since 1980 which coincedently was the peak of gold. In other words relating gold to M3 on any basis except perhaps the very very long term is a fools errand. Gold didn't start rising after it's fall from the 80 peak during the subsequent 2 decades despite relentless increases in the money stock. A direct causal realtionship can't be shown, at least on any basis which has any practical application for speculative purposes.

The only thing that matters is that the flood of money will eventually rush from one asset class to another and today in some small part it is into gold. One interesting thing about gold is that it's supply is limited. Stocks and bonds and financial assets and homes can be produced seemingly without limit. Thus in theory there is also almost no limit to the heights to which gold could rise.

As far as I know, several of the big European central banks (F, D, CH, poss UK) think that they are holding too much gold and have been selling into the market periodically over the last four or five years. This would be a grand time for them to keep selling, so any retail investor considering getting into a gold position needs one of two things: (1) serious awareness of a global market, where GWB&Co are bit players; or, (2) desire to own the raw material for jewelry.

Also curious whether the $521 is just a nominal high, and what the price is in real, i.e., inflation-adjusted, dollars. (But not curious enough to do the math myself...)

Inflation adjusted, the early 1980's gold run of $850+ equates to over $2000 in todays $$$. Silver's high of $50, also reached in the early 80's, equates to over $120 in todays $$$. Therefore gold is about 25% of the historic high, silver is an amazing 7.5% of the historic high. Note the decimal between the 7 and the 5 !!

"...the ETF is not linked to an index of gold mining stocks. Rather, it represents shares in a trust that are backed by actual gold..."

GLD CLAIMS to represent trust shares backed by actual. however, unlike the canadian spicer trust funds - CEF & GTU.UN- ist one is gold & silver;2nd one is just gold trust share -- GLD does not AUDIT the gold held in its vaults. you just have to "trust" that its all there. the canadian spicers are insured & audited. also GLD states in its perspectus that it can trade short on gold. this makes iT one of the possible gold shorting vehicles-to keep the price of the asset down. this mite be the reason the financial houses started this ETF.speaking of auditing & insuring gold. can anyone explain who owns the central banks' gold & who owns IMF gold who audits it?thanx

Just a side note, imho, water has more value than gold - The influential head of environmental research institute Worldwatch, Lester Brown, believes that water scarcity is now "the single biggest threat to global food security".

Look around the world, whether Middle East, Africa, India, China even our own SouthWest, access to lots of clean water is dear.

OK while I agree that 'some' of the price increases for gold are from the excess liquidity that have been thrown into the market from the Fed, and Heli-Ben fears from the Street and City, I beg you to look at the increase of base metals over the same three year period. Copper and Aluminum are near actual historic highs. Nearly all commodity prices have been on a steady upward climb over the past few years, not just gold. Yes, it’s a store of value but it is also a useful industrial commodity. As I am sure you well know asset prices RARELY move by a single factor.... just a point.

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