The Super Bowl LII Pick

This year has been a weird one in the NFL, and I believe that is the reason why I am having such a tough time getting a handle on what to think about each of these games. I’ve done alright so far as during Championship Weekend I ended up like this…

Championship Weekend Picks

Straight Up: 1-1

Against the Spread: 1-1

Over/Under: 1-1

That leaves me at this so far for the playoffs…

Straight Up: 5-5

Against the Spread: 6-4

Over/Under: 7-3 (but again, as a man of #integrity I demoted myself to 5-5 because I didn’t post my picks in this category on Wild Card Weekend)

Anyway, we’re here at the last football game of the season *sad violin music plays*. I’ve stayed very mediocre during picks but for some reason you keep reading, so I’ll give you what I’ve got on the Super Bowl. I’ve been going back and forth for the last two weeks about how it’s going to play out but I’m finally ready. The pick…

New England -4.5 over Philadelphia and the Over (48.5)

It seems like all the money is on the Eagles. Not just the public, but sharps are even jumping all over the Nick Foles bandwagon. I love it, because I actually do feel like people are believing the Eagles are going to score, and possibly even win. There’s going to be a LOTTTTTT of people trying to be heroes with their bets and that’s when you get in trouble. Taking the Pats is easy enough as it is and this just further pushes me that way.

I think a lot of people are also falling into the trap of being too influenced but what they last saw. Yea, the Pats had to claw for a win against Jacksonville and Philly blew the doors off of Minnesota, but now that means nothing. If anything, I’d say it actually looks better for a Pats victory here. Don’t get stuck in the recency trap.

I’m not of the belief that the Eagles front four is some all time group and I don’t think they’ll have Brady running for his life. In fact, I think Tom is going to be having a fairly easy time slinging the rock around the field. This defense has played great, but they aren’t even as good as Jacksonville in my mind. Expect the line to have trouble getting enough pressure, especially late in the game and expect the secondary to get torched by Amendola, Hogan and Gronk (idk why I just see a big game coming from Hoges).

On the offensive side of the ball for the Eagles, we’ll see a slightly better group than Jacksonville talent wise. The Pats defense might spring some leaks as they usually do but they’ll eventually patch everything up and create some turnovers.

What I’m really interested in seeing is how the experience factor plays into this game. The Eagles have very little, while the Patriots only have a handful of guys who have not been through this battle before. That’s usually something that plays a role late.

Anyway, I’m feeling really good about this game and how it will play out. I see a lot of Patriots Super Bowl trends being bucked such as the scoreless first quarters, the “Brady always throws a pick” thing and the “it’s always painstakingly close” thing. I feel like this is going to be unlike anything we’ve ever seen and it’ll be more relaxed and maybe even anticlimactic.

Now, I’ve doubted this Eagles team all year even when they had Wentz. And with Foles now, they kind of fit the mold of teams that I usually doubt. It’s a below average QB and a good defense just like the Giants, the Ravens, the Jets that one year and the Broncos. With all of those teams I was picking against them every step of the way just as I have with Philly. Does that scare me? No. But it might make me a little uneasy.

The other thing is that Pats fans have become so aware of how the Super Bowl goes and this is the first year where everyone is finally saying that it’s always close so it will be again. That’s why I think it’s flip-flopping on us and zigging when we expect it to zag. Maybe that’s just my dumb brain sticking with something that I always go with (thinking we’re going to run over the other team) but that’s how I feel and that’s how I’ll justify it to myself.

So in the end we’re going to get 31-20 Pats over Eagles and it won’t even be that close. I think we’ll be able to breathe tomorrow as we go on our way to a sixth celebration. It just feels like a different year. So enjoy the game and remember, Eagles fans are trash.

*Is it a little sick of me to want a close game though? I almost want the anxiety.