Turnover and Offensive Rebounding Differentials

The answer to that question is also the surprising answer to the question of how the W’s beat the Clippers. Winning the contest of offensive rebounding and turnover differentials is the only way of manufacturing more scoring opportunities than your opponent. These differentials should be noted as equal partners with the much more glamorous shooting % numbers.

OR differential also says something (as much as statistics can say) about a team’s grit and physicality on any given night.

The W’s are 2-2. In their other win, they had a push in TO differential, but were a +6 in OR differential. Obviously, in a 2 pt win over the Suns, manufacturing 6 more scoring opportunities than your opponent makes all the difference.

OTOH, in the W’s two losses they also lost the differential contest. And in a 2 pt loss against the Kings, when the Kings get 3 more OR’s than you, that makes all the difference, too. Had that not been the case, at the minimum Thompson would’ve been shooting that 16 footer for a win, not a tie.

The W’s don’t just play against Cleveland’s dynamic young backcourt tonight. They also play against Varejao.

Chris L

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and they play against the refs who reward teams that take it to the hole. hopefully, the warriors start to look more to the charity stripe when shots aren’t falling. guards in particular…

JanG

Yes, we are more gritty and getting more rebounds. But is this enough to beat the better teams?

It’s interesting how DLee seemed to thrive when playing with Monta. He didn’t demand the ball but was the recipient of drives and kicks and benefitted when so much attention was directed to Monta. Now that he appears to be the go-to guy and the player MJax seems to be running iso plays for (why, I’ll never know!), he doesn’t seem comfortable in this role. The only way he will get to where he was last year will be for Bogut to assume more of the offensive plays, the guards driving to the basket, and DLee picking and rolling. He simply cannot take ANYONE off the dribble and rarely, if ever, gets a second shot when he throws up the fade away lefty hook shot. I can’t believe this team does not employ a motion offense. With ball movement, there will be mismatches, open shooters on the wings, more free throws, and second shots. Sure games will be close but what we’re witnessing isn’t a winning strategy. And it’s boring. If it weren’t for Landry, we’d be 1-3 and going insane.

marko

Every made offensive rebound is a lost defensive rebound.

More than half the shots made don’t fall, and defenders typically have a position advantage. When we can’t rebound because our big has to enforce a box-out or tie up a guy (Randolph, Thornton, et al.) then Klay or Barnes have to come in from the wing (a la Rrandon Rush) and swipe it.

And when David Lee is out of shape the way he’s seemed, our bigs aren’t rebounding on D.

…scotch

“…when the Kings get 3 more OR’s than you, that makes all the difference…”

IMO you can lay that right at MJax doorstep. Look at the game tape, score tied 22-22, he pulls Festus & Sac’s next possession they vollyball offensive rebounds for a score & then it went on from there.

Games like that bring out the worst of the Bogut minutes rationing. Without Fesuts or Bogut on the floor small ball was a death nel against Cousins.

Interesting that MJax didn’t anticipate let alone react to it right away???

monsta

dr j
With you, but I would argue Jackson is not just playing (or overplaying) the vets. He has a lot of young talent to develop, and so, sue him, but Bazemore is pretty low on his list.

He’s bringing along Ezeli nicely (you saw him in summer league, he looked like a project just a few months ago and I’m impressed by the huge improvement), he’s got a rookie in the starting lineup (even before Rush got hurt), he has to bring along Green (really slowly; so far more PFs than boards). For all the poise they now have, Klay Thompson and Jenkins were rookies last year. And I would take it a step further and say Curry is still a work in progress, after his trial-by-Monta start in the league. That’s a lot of young guys.

It’d be nice to ALSO work in Bazemore and Tyler, but not at the expense of winning. Were you so impressed with Tyler’s progress? A couple of times, he made me long for Biedrins, and that’s not good….

monsta

Am I remembering right? I thought Lee started slowly last year, kind of floating through games, scoring but not defending or really aggressive — and then he kicked it into gear around his 8th or 9th game and started to play more like his demon self.

Isn’t that his pattern?

Our Team

Chris, short but right on. Great posts so far. Thank you.

As someone pointed out on the last thread, Bogut is going to be an “accountability enforcer” out there. When D Lee failed to rotate and pick up Bogut’s man as he drove past, Bogut yelled at him and motioned with his arms. There was nothing subtle about it. When the guards later got 3 shooting happy, Bogut was visibly pissed as MJ finally called a time out. I love that about Bogut. He’s smart and he’s going to keep these guys accountable on the court. He doesn’t care whether he’s yelling at a veteran team leader or a rookie. Accountability returns to Golden State after a long hiatus.

monsta

Chris L
Nice piece, again. It’s fun to read you, both in the opener and your comments among the entries.

The change in Warrior stats reflect the change in emphasis they’ve had — toward defense, rebounding, boxing out. (Finally! Boxing out, that’s something the Warriors can do, too, just like other teams do?) The new stats, though, mostly represent the play of a couple of individuals, Landry and Ezeli, who exceeded my expectations, by far, in terms of their effective aggression. If you do all of that extra work, which those two have done, you get extra possessions which, as you point out, can change a game.

I would say, just watching the games, that Lee has been contributing less in that department. Slow start or whatever. My point is, everyone wants to win the battle of the boards, the turnover and offensive board differential battles — but the question is, how do you do that? It’s the players who are in the game who determine how the stat line shifts, and Jackson has clearly been waiting for Lee to assert himself in the same way Landry and Ezeli have been.

I get the idea of having patience, especially with your stars, and Lee is a star. But to me, if you want to win games, and win those differentials, you have to play the guys who pushed that needle.

So why in the world did Landry get crap minutes at the end of Q1 and start of Q2, and at the end of Q3 and start of Q4 against Sacramento? Same with Ezeli, a few minutes at the end of Q1 and Q3. 16 and 19 minutes for those two. What the hell.

If the Warriors’ new identity really is tough and gritty, if you’re going to see inroads in differentials, then the guys who play that way need to play — especially at the end of Q2 and the end of Q4.

Lee’s a terrific player, but he’s not a closer. I’ve seen him play great D, sensational D, but you can’t count on him to get big and stop people at the end of games, and the end of the first half. You just can’t.

Our Team

JanG, but lee played very well after the Monta trade last year when he and Klay were the o ly go-to guys on the court. I think that with Landry, Bogut and Festus populating the low block on Offense, Lee is finding himself in different
Positions away from the basket and he’s trying to adapt. He’s also got some bigger, more athletic guys on his team competing for rebounds so he’s not going to get as many.

JanG

monsta:

So we should give him some slack because his ‘pattern’ is to take 8 games before he’s up to cruising speed? Wasn’t there a lockout last year without any preseason or training camp? I don’t think he’s any different than last year. No different than seeing AB stink now, last year and the 4 years before. In Lee’s defense, I think the system is not working for him.

Our Team

Jan, also, Lee is playing fewer minutes against centers and more against true forwards. Some of his moves that would work against slower centers aren’t working against quicker power forwards. Cheers.

JanG

Our Team:

Good point. He did look good after Monta was traded. But I’m most upset about the isolation plays run for him. He can’t take anyone off the dribble yet he gets the ball on the low block and works his way to the rim only to get blocked. Or he throws up a left-handed fade away push shot that is not falling. Scola was successful at this. Lee is not. He needs to get some McHale moves around the rim. Needs some good head fakes. Needs to get fouled more. Just don’t like this type of offense. Like Lee when he’s in the flow. He should not be the focus for the offense.

PardonMyDrivel

I’m glad that we have true bigs that could fight for that rebound but still, I don’t see that our bigs are being utilized to their fullest. Sitting that $9M big is stupid. At least, send him in for some hacking foul! You know, sending a message to the opponent that they got that big guy that is intended to protect the rim.

If you take out your bigs, it’s just like saying to every body that, ‘Hey, we’re an open ‘city’, go take it!

The worst is, the Dubs would resort to their outside shots after taking out their 5. Shooting waaaay out! Not even some ball movement to find an open man while the rest are standing still. Pathetic.

And pray that the ball would bounced back to their hands? Nice ball concept. Genius!

Just like that guy who likes to put up and wave his hands just like that one big mother bear.

Why do they prefer to shoot from the outside? Because they knew very well that they got 40% shooters? Rrrrrrright.

But not every game is a Dubs birthday. They need some penetration. They need to break that perimeter defense. Either by post up play or guard penetration!

I haven’t seen Steph Curry make that defense breaking penetration to the hoop ever since! And why is that Curry playing the off guard on end games? The answer is very evident; his outside shooting, right? I hate bring this up; the other one reason is his non conscientious TO’s over time and time and times again. Ever since.

I want to see more lane drives and guards posterizing his man. Small weak SG can’t do that. I know. We know.

Jarret Jack is obviously the better PG in this regard and during the crunch. You can rely on him just like how you defend on your life insurance. And JJack is getting paid much much less?

Did Cohan really had sold this franchise? Did somebody let The Fat Man in the building? Is Chris Mullin still the pres of this organization?

Same ‘o same ‘o. Only with some new faces.

I hate SNSB and those non conscientious carelessness. This is on the Coach.

Gmoney

Thanks Chris for keeping this going.

Lee is the kind of player that needs to get his shot going to be effective offensively. He is kinda like the big man version of Curry. If the threat of the shot is present, he can use fakes and chicanery to get by his defender. If it isn’t dropping, he is bottled up fairly easily. The J hasn’t been falling and neither have his one handed hook/push shots he was hitting with regularity last season. I think that will come, just like Curry’s shot will.

I yi yi , from the last thread, I don’t think its conditioning as much as it is his physical makeup. Curry isn’t built very powerfully and when he over exerts himself like against the Clips, he sort of has a hangover type game the following one. THis is a pattern I have seen over and over. Maybe over time he will get stronger, but I just don’t see it.

PJ

Very succinct stats & analysis — gets right to the crux of winning and losing for this team. Excellent post.

dr_john

I don’t subscribe to the OR differential theory. I do subscribe to the total rebound differential theory.

The top three scoring teams in the league last year were even with their opponents at offensive rebounding and were in the top 8 in overall rebounding differential. Their advantage was at their defensive end.

The Warriors are currently 11th at +2.8. Last year 10 of the top 11 in this stat were playoff teams. There will always be an exception or two, but the correlation is extremely high.

Getting the ball is important.

The Warriors historically have been plus in turnover differential. It does not correlate well with playoff success.

Perhaps the Warriors caught a “break” tonight—Zeller is out. If you saw that Jordan elbow, it was pretty bad. With Matt Barnes there to “mentor” the likes of Jordan and Hollins and Griffin, you should be expecting thuggery from that team.

The way to deal with Varejao, Thompson and Samuels is to get them in foul trouble. Is that the plan, coach?

earl monroe

Best thing about NBA hoops is that there is another game tonight, go Warriors!

earl monroe

How can I watch the Shanghai Sharks, one of my favorite warriors of all time Gilbert Arenas is signing with them……..

dr_john

monsta:

I think Bazemore moved way up the list immediately upon the Rush injury. I asked for Doron Lamb in the draft, specifically for depth at the SG. Instead we got a redundant Green—and this is not a comment about his ability. It’s about balance on the roster.

So you see that ZERO minutes for Bazemore either makes no sense or says they think he sucks.

Same thing with Tyler. ZERO minutes? Really? This is the real season, not camp, not summer league.

David Lee at center? 97% fail. And that’s what we learn from history?

Now we have Landry, Lee AND Bogut at the high post? I guess basketball is a non-contact sport.

http://Yahoo! PeteyBrian

RE: Bogut’s Minutes

Dear Mark Jackson,
Please start Andrew Bogut and let him play 10 or so minutes in the first half of the game. Let him take off his shoe, ice the ankle, and relax.

After halftime, please let Andrew Bogut PLAY THE FIRST 10 OR SO MINUTES OF THE 2ND HALF. Let him take off his shoe, ice the ankle – and cheer on his teammates.

This allows Andrew Bogut to have half-time for him get more physically and mentally prepared to play his next run.

Playing Bogut towards the end of the game – after sitting on the bench for 40 minutes – allows his ankle to stiffen up.

That 4th quarter Kings game – Bogut played well, but looked VERY STIFF and it took awhile before he was warmed up. Anyone who’s had injuries like this – myself included – would generally prefer this substitution method.

Do not care if Bogut doesn’t finish games now – think long-term, not short-term. The owner/GM should not punish you for coaching Boguts minutes in this matter. It should be BETTER for the franchise/Bogut – until he’s 100%…

http://Yahoo! PeteyBrian

@Dr. J,
Anyone who was college basketball’s defensive player of the year – T. Basemore – can play on my favorite team.

Along with A. Bogut – that will put two elite defenders on the floor and never a bad thing.

@JanG
I noticed that too about David Lee/Mark Jackson – Coach really need to simply pick and rolls all day long with David Lee. That’s Lee at his best! Setting up a Lee ISO – not so much! Ditto Andris Biedrins – a couple of seasons ago when Coach Smart tried Biedrins post-ups – I wanted to throw up! Andris running the open court or rolling to the basket? Andris at his best (long gone!).

Landry and Bogut – have post up skills. I want them fed in the low post.

dr_john

In years past San Antonio usually was at the bottom in offensive rebounds, and at the top in defensive boards.

Said nothing about their grit and physicality. Said a lot about their game planning and defensive scheme and offensive spacing and passing.

I’d be a little cautious about sweeping generalizations from a stat.

sartre

Varejao worries me. He is a good defender and is averaging 15 rebounds a game (including a tick over 5 offensive boards). Varejao is also scoring well. All his numbers are way up on his career averages over these early games so hopefully for the dubs regression to the mean will start occurring tonight. Waiters had his first quality nba game – will he replicate it or show rookie inconsistency? I’m guessing the latter because his earlier performances were ordinary. Varejao and Irving are quality players but Cleveland don’t have great depth on their roster so the dubs should have a bench edge. I don’t think the dubs will be flat tonight. They’ll be able to draw upon the energizing effects of Oracle and will want to make-up for the disappointing Kings loss. I was more worried about the Kings game than this one.

At least the dubs have a good backup in Jenkins, though he might be rusty. Who backs up Landry? Green? Tyler?

Tired

OK, go ahead and run the stats. Good catch, but anyone can see that the match-ups in the Kings game came unstuck when Jax left the Lee/Landry tandem in the game too long and left Ezeili on the bench. 16 minutes? That’s all he gets when our starting center is on a reduced minute schedule? He was doing very well against Cousins n the 1st quarter. Much better than Lee/Landry.

Yes, E is a rookie. Big deal. Let him learn now. it can’t be any worse than leaving in the more ‘experienced’ Lee at center. he is doing a great job when he is in there. he is not another Udoh, he is a man among men.

it just becomes more and more apparent that Lee is turning into the weak link on this team. As the other players get better and learn defense, etc., he just wanders around out there getting in the way. Someone said earlier that he is capable of excellent defense. Seriously? Really? No he is not. he is not athletic enough and has never developed those skills in all his years. The best we can hope for with him is that Bogut tells him what he wants him to do when he is in there and Lee listens. That is it.

Jax seems to think that Lee makes up for his lack of D and tough rebounding with his scoring. Not so. He is a wash at BEST. that isn’t good enough any more. This team has higher goals.

Lee was a mistake when we signed him to that contract and he is still a mistake to use at the wrong times now. I think we should try him off the bench when we have favorable match ups and just let him go in with the idea of scoring and rebounding those loose balls.

I also saw the Lee/Landry stretch and thought it was a mistake. My reasoning was that Lee never does well at center.

A look at the gameflow chart showed something else. It showed that Curry was also sitting for a significant part of the Kings’ run.

Would Curry have helped? Well, since I’ve been criticizing Curry’s play I’m surprising myself when I say “possibly”. But, the charts don’t lie. The games have generally been going the right way with Curry on the floor.

I have been very skeptical of the medical news along. So far, Curry’s ankle seems to be okay. I know he looks slow, but I haven’t seen him limp. Also, the fact that he’s cleared to play big minutes is an indication that they aren’t worried about inflammation. Not sure about stability. Or, if his mental approach has changed.

I remain skeptical about Bogut. He’s had more than 6 months. Now they’re saying that was the original prediction from the doctor. They didn’t say that at the time. We keep hearing about January for full duty, but that’s only 7 weeks away. I don’t see it. Something is continuing to create inflammation which the doctor didn’t expect. Looks to me like this ankle injury was a lot worse than the W’s thought. And, the Bucks are beginning to look clever. Did the Bucks doctor said something like “this thing my never heal properly, trade him before everybody finds out”, with the W doctor saying “it will be fine”?

sartre

SI calling for more Beans playing time:

“But with Andrew Bogut’s minutes and game availability limited, Biedrins deserves at least a tiny sliver of playing time, flaws and all. Rookie Festus Ezeli is a worthy recipient of most of Bogut’s minutes on the first-string center’s nights off, but playing Biedrins more is surely preferable to relying so heavily on David Lee to be a bumbling defensive centerpiece. Biedrins has played just seven minutes in four games, with most of that time coming in a six-minute stint against the Memphis Grizzlies. Let’s be clear: Biedrins has done little in his short minutes to legitimately warrant extended time. But with so little depth behind Bogut, and Ezeli already playing big minutes, would it really do so much harm to run an occasional salvage mission on a theoretically effective big man making $9 million this year?”

I have to agree with Scotch at #4 I definitely place the blame on the coach for this loss. Ezeli was not in foul trouble and we were doing well even without Bogut. I think right now against athletic centers like Cousins and the Clippers Jordan Azeli is a much better option until Bogut is in playing shape providing he can stay out of foul trouble.

I blame it on Jackson for leaving David Lee and Landry in for too long together and that is where we got so far behind that we couldn’t quite make up for it.

I hope to never see DLee and Landry together in there without a center. Also the offense seems to almost come to a halt with some of curry’s decisions and I would have even opted for him to be pulled in favor of JJack a few times until he learns to calm down out there. He is forcing his shot and making some crazy passes again and after a few he should be sat down and talked to by none other than a real point guard (our coach).

I don’t see much ball movement so far this year, it’s like we are brand new to each other (maybe that is it?) but I would have expected us to have some chemistry by now with this team.

It sure seems like the Clipper game was a huge positive, can’t we keep a center on the court at all times?

Go W’s.

willow

Nice software at the Merc. Just tried to post for the first time in days and it told me to slow down, that I was posting too much, and deleted my post.

Anyway, and a minor point, wasn’t Klay Thompson, in fact, shooting for the lead “Had that not been the case, at the minimum Thompson would’ve been shooting that 16 footer for a win, not a tie.” (Klay missed, Sac hit one free throw and then Curry missed a possible game winning three)?

Wholeheartedly agree with all the posters who are criticizing MJ for overplaying the vets and not relying on the team’s obvious depth. Reminds me of the Warriors 48 win season under Nellie when he overplayed the vets to sheer exhaustion and to the ultimate detriment of the team.

As of now, MJ is not making a great case for his continued employment. He still has time to wake up, though.

believewhat

I am getting really tired of the coaching staff. I mean, we came into terms that we will not get elite players here through free agency or even trade. Most of us like team ball anyway. But, why do we have to settle on the coaches. Pay them, you will get them, no cap either. It is frustrating. What is over and under that coach Jax will be fired. I think our owners are stingy and keep him even he though he should be fired by all star break.

believewhat

Regarding Lee, he does one thing right, that is rebounding. He is a scorer but more from outside than close to the basket. His passing is very good for a PF but his D is inconsistent. In all, he contributes to the team, but shouldn’t be treated like a go to guy. If you have a better option like Carl Landry to give post offence, Carl Landry should play at the end. Worst thing that coach can do is, play Lee at C, same mistake done by notso and might have been done by Nellie. So, in all we have third coach in a row who doesn’t value rebounding and defense. It is like play small, score and pray that the opposing team has a bad shooting night. The coach is taking easier path.

sartre

Lee’s started the season below his best. Last season he was above league average for a PF for rebounding, scoring (per game, FG%, and FT%), assisting, and getting to the line. He also didn’t get into foul trouble much. On the negative side, his turnovers were above and his blocks and steals were below league average.

sartre

Those numbers for Lee are per 48 minutes. Last season, Curry was above the league average for PGs on assists, rebounds, steals, blocks, scoring (points and efficiency). On the negative side, he was above league average for a PG on turnovers and below on getting to the line – longstanding issues. Throughout the season he was restricted by his ankle issues. Over his mostly below par games this season he is only above league average for a PG on the positive front with respect to rebounding and getting to the line. The contrast with Curry’s usual form has been striking and likely speaks to a small sample size and still getting himself right after extended time taken up with rehabilitation.

Slimman

Our Team @#7 – I love that about Bogut too, but should’t that be Mark Jackson’s job?

Slimman

And Sartre @#27 – I totally agree with that. Beans has been bumped to the #3 center obviously, but with Bogut’s minutes limited he should be seeing the floor. He would be far preferable to Lee at Center. Every time Coach Jackson goes to a small ball line-up of Lee and Landry the other team makes a run.

dr_john

Coach: Young man, tonight we have a size mismatch and we’re going to have to ask you to man up and take one for the team. OK?

Lee: Sure coach, anything, just ask, I’ll do it.

Coach: I know this will take a lot out of you, and may challenge what you think your role might be. It might punish you physically, and hurt some of your stats, and require even more of you on defense. Still OK with it?

Lee: Sounds tough, but I’m game, who’s the center?

Coach: Even worse, I’m afraid. I need you to take a smaller guy. I need you to defend and win a SF matchup. I know how hard this may be to swallow, but we’re really hurting right now. Can you accept this?

Lee: Oh, coach, (thank you thank you thank you) I’ll suck it up and try, I guess.

I yiyi yi

2-2 and off with their heads or maybe we should cut them a little slack till we got enough to really see what we got. Yeah I’m running out of patience too.

RickP, man can you say anything positive about this team?

Chris, Lies, damn lies and……..

Glass still half full
Go Wariors

sartre

dr_john, Lee and Jack are both down to play but suffering the flu so there will likely be less energy on display from Lee tonight.