LegalandPublicPolicyConsiderationsoftheEUReferendum

A Glimpse of the Mood in UK Politics

The mood in the Conservative Party is bleak. Many of the political challenges with Brexit can be traced back to the 2017 election. Prime Minister Theresa May lost her majority and was only able to retain power by making a deal with the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) from Northern Ireland.

The arithmetic in Parliament is such that if even a small number of Conservative members of Parliament (MPs) defy their own government, then (alongside the opposition) they can block any progress on almost any matter. For this reason, those at more extreme wings of the Conservative Party, whether for a hard Brexit and or for no Brexit at all, have been able to stall all progress.

This led to Theresa May, in an act of desperation to find the votes in Parliament, reaching out to the opposition. An already besieged and unpopular leader asking for support from her political opponents has gone down extraordinarily badly with many of her own MPs. There is no clear mechanism to remove her as leader, but for the first time, those who seek her crown are openly and properly organising their own campaigns.

It is doubtful whether agreement between the government and opposition is even possible. If it is, it is likely to require so “soft” a Brexit as to infuriate large tracts of the Conservative Party. The much-touted solution of Customs Union membership is far more controversial than some commentators assume. Alongside Labour Party rebels, so many Conservative MPs would defy such a deal that even with the official opposition on board, it might not pass.

With the long extension to October now agreed, Theresa May looks set to attempt to hold on to power. As such, we can expect more drift, infighting and several catastrophic electoral moments for the Conservatives. In the local elections, they are defending seats last fought at the 2015 high watermark. In the now-likely European elections, even some Conservative MPs are openly refusing to say they will vote for their own party.

These moments and many more could finally topple the Prime Minister. But without a clear mechanism to force such an outcome, she could equally continue to cling on in defiance of all precedent. The leadership contenders who have geared up in recent weeks could now face a longer campaign than they had hoped. Whether they can maintain momentum, and avoid disaster, remains to be seen.

About Squire Patton Boggs:

We are a Top 10 law firm with 15 European offices as part of a global network of 45 offices in 20 countries and over 1500 lawyers, we have specialist teams in virtually every sector and geography that may be affected by a Brexit. Our Public Policy teams in Europe, and particularly in Brussels, alongside our colleagues in Washington DC, have decades of experience in advocating to advance your business objectives.