Stephen L. Carter: Wrong about Franken, right about Trump in 2018

By Stephen L. Carter, Bloomberg Opinion

Friday

Dec 28, 2018 at 3:00 PMDec 28, 2018 at 6:09 PM

As has been my habit in recent years, before I get to my predictions for 2019, I offer a scorecard for how I did on my predictions for the past year. This seems to me an obligation for any commentator who purports to speculate about what the future will bring. We should be honest about the stubborn refusal of real events to comport with our expectations. And even though a few of my predictions for 2018 were intended as tongue-in-cheek — I said so at the time — I will evaluate them, too:

1. I predicted that Special Counsel Robert Mueller would complete his investigation in the fall of 2018, and that although there would be further indictments, no one would be charged with a substantive offense related to the reason Mueller was appointed. I also predicted that, following the midterms, Mueller would issue a scathing report about Donald Trump's presidential campaign and its links to Russia but find no evidence of criminal violations.

Evaluation: Pretty much false. Mueller's investigation continues, and his report did not issue shortly after the midterms. Moreover, the investigation has led to the indictments of more than two dozen Russians for substantive offenses relating to the election and U.S. politics. Trump supporters will reply that the indictments for Russia-related offenses have not really touched the Trump campaign. (Yet.)

2. I predicted that the Supreme Court, by a vote of 6-3, would decide the Masterpiece Cakeshop case against the baker who violated Colorado law by refusing on religious grounds to custom-design a cake for a same-sex wedding.

Evaluation: False.

3. I predicted that Antarctica would once again lose more than 100 gigatonnes of ice during 2018.

Evaluation: Appears to be true.

4. I predicted that (now former) Sen. Al Franken would change his mind about resigning and remain in office.

Evaluation: False. He deserves credit for acting honorably.

5. I predicted that the highest-grossing film of the year would be "Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom."

Evaluation: Extremely false.

6. I predicted that the television ratings for the 2018 Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang, South Korea, would be dreadful, even worse than those for the 2014 Winter Games in Sochi, which already represented a drop-off from those of the 2010 Winter Games in Turin.

7. I predicted that an attempted coup in North Korea would at first seem to succeed but ultimately fail.

Evaluation: False (as far as we can tell).

8. I predicted that at 2:14 a.m. on Aug. 4, having learned at a geometric rate, the internet of things (IoT, in the jargon) would become self-aware. In a panic, humans would try to pull the plug. Skynet — um, the IoT — would fight back, freezing smart wallets and tap-to-pay. All linked thermostats would be shut off. All linked refrigerators would stop running. All social media sites would go offline. Smart cars and trucks would block the expressways. Virtual assistants would respond to every command with "Resistance is futile." Email accounts and cell phones would lock. Worst of all, video streaming would be impossible. Faced with a future of reading actual books and getting to know the neighbors, the human race would swiftly surrender.

Evaluation: True overall, with errors only in the details. As it turns out, we're surrendering to the IoT without a fight.

9. I predicted that President Donald Trump would continue his tilt away from multilateral institutions toward a policy of bilateralism, would accelerate his predecessor's pivot away from Europe and toward Asia, and would continue to assert an independent executive war-making power every bit as broad as that claimed by his two immediate predecessors.

Evaluation: True.

10. I predicted that despite the recent uptick, the rate of violent crime would resume its decades-long fall, and that many Republican candidates would insist that the rate was rising.

Evaluation: Truer than I imagined, because some Democrats also joined in the fun.

11. I predicted that the New England Patriots will win Super Bowl LII. I always pick the Patriots, because it's usually the safe bet. But in 2018 the Philadelphia Eagles had something to say about that.

Evaluation: Extremely false.

12. I predicted that the Republicans would hold onto at least one house of Congress, and probably both.

Evaluation: True about one house, false about both. Probably also wrong about "probably."

13. I predicted that on at least one U.S. campus, students would demand disciplinary action against a professor for contributing money to a Republican political candidate, and that administrators would comply.

Evaluation: False, as far as I know. If only I had said "tech companies" instead.

That's my scorecard for 2018. Coming soon: My predictions for 2019.

Stephen L. Carter is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. He is a professor of law at Yale University and was a clerk to U.S. Supreme Court Justice Thurgood Marshall.

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