Fortnightly - recessionhttp://www.fortnightly.com/tags/recession
enFueling America's Economic Enginehttp://www.fortnightly.com/fortnightly/2014/10/fueling-americas-economic-engine
<div class="field field-name-field-import-deck field-type-text-long field-label-inline clearfix"><div class="field-label">Deck:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><p>New energy economy also relies on some old fossil friends.</p>
</div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-import-byline field-type-text-long field-label-inline clearfix"><div class="field-label">Byline:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><p class="p1"> Ken Silverstein</p>
</div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-import-bio field-type-text-long field-label-inline clearfix"><div class="field-label">Author Bio:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><p class="p1"><span class="s1"><b>Ken Silverstein</b> is Editor-at-Large for <i>Public Utilities Fortnightly</i>. Contact him at <a href="mailto:ksilverstein@pur.com">ksilverstein@pur.com</a>.</span></p>
</div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-import-volume field-type-node-reference field-label-inline clearfix"><div class="field-label">Magazine Volume:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even">Fortnightly Magazine - October 2014</div></div></div><div class="field field-name-body field-type-text-with-summary field-label-hidden"><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><p>When President Obama strode through Pennsylvania Avenue on his way to the White House in January 2009, he promised "Change We Need" - a general slogan, but one that would come to rely on both green power and cleaner fossil fuels.</p>
<p>It's all centered on public sector financing or popular support. As for investments in emerging technologies, they would serve two purposes: to clean the environment and to create new jobs in potentially lucrative fields, such as wind and solar energies, or energy storage. In the early years of the Obama presidency, the Democratic congress amassed the votes to push through the president's $1 trillion stimulus plan that sent billions to various elements of the New Economy.</p>
<p>As to whether those clean power endeavors have fulfilled their promises is a function of one's political and economic beliefs. Obama's side, for example, is saying that wind and solar energies are providing thousands of new jobs - just what's needed to rebuild a broken economy. Designing the technologies is one piece. Building the turbines and solar panels in the United States is the other.</p>
<p>"Investments in wind, solar and improved energy efficiency are creating well-paying jobs for people of all skill levels and educational backgrounds," says a report by the Pew Charitable Trust. "These investments will revitalize not only the economy, but also help protect the global environment."</p>
<p>Consider: As of July 1, 2014, about 14,600 megawatts of wind energy was under construction in 21 states. That's a record, albeit much of that development can be credited to trying to beat the expiration of the production tax credits.</p>
<p>Similarly, Southern California Edison just announced a $50 million partnership with the U.S. Department of Energy to help demonstrate battery storage - a device that would harness wind and solar electrons and then release power when needed. The goal is to more efficiently integrate such variable power into the grid, which must be properly orchestrated so that the lights stay on.</p>
<p>Skeptics, though, have called the Energy Department's forays, as well as that of the stimulus plan, giant make-work programs - schemes that have distorted the free marketplace and caused capital to flow to where it would not naturally extend. Meantime, the budget deficit has skyrocketed, with little to show for it, and which must eventually be paid off or winnowed down.</p>
<p>The context of that discussion is apparent to all in the energy and utility fields: In the fall of 2008, major investment banks that had been lynchpins of the global economy had bellied up while the Dow Jones Industrial average had watched the floor crater beneath it. The U.S. jobless rate reached 10 percent, although now it hovers at around 6 percent.</p>
<p>While the U.S. Federal Reserve Board pumped money into the economy by reducing interest rates to near zero percent, companies and consumers nevertheless felt compelled to tightened their belts. The malaise subsequently spread around the globe. Although the U.S. officially recovered in 2010, the pall from the Great Recession still hangs.</p>
<p><b>Ironically, though, it has not been public investments in sustainable fuels and modern tools that have led to the re-awakening of the U.S. economy</b>; rather, it's been mostly private investment in shale gas development that has led to new capital formation, infrastructure development and jobs galore.</p>
<p>Shale gas is the unconventional form of natural gas that is found deep underground and that must be extracted using a controversial technique called hydraulic fracturing - a technique underwritten by the U.S. government. Not only is the fuel used to feed electric generators but the subsequent natural gas liquids - methane, ethane, propane, butane, and others - are split off and used as valuable feedstocks to create products for everyday use before getting exported all around the world.</p>
<p>Today's projections suggest at least a century's worth of shale gas in the ground. And producers are extracting it while the associated natural gas liquids are fueling industrial processes, all of which is giving the United States a major competitive advantage in international markets.</p>
<p>That type of access and abundance means U.S. prices for natural gas are hovering around $4.50 per million Btus - much less than what the Europeans or Asians are paying. The American manufacturing and chemical industries are thriving as a result while their foreign counterparts are investing billions here as well. Witness the rebirth of petrochemical plants all over this country.</p>
<p>"Over the forecast period 2012-2025, improving cost competitiveness for domestic manufacturers will lead to increased U.S. industrial production," says a report by the American Chemistry Council. The increase is equivalent to $258 billion in new manufacturing output by 2020 and $328 billion by 2025 - and 1 million new jobs, adds PriceWaterhouseCoopers by 2035.</p>
<p>To be sure, the price of shale gas could rise, especially as more and more demands are made on it. And if the environmental record associated with the drilling process becomes blemished, so too could shale gas' fate.</p>
<p>Indeed, the United Nations played host in late September to a global conference with 120 different foreign countries present. They were joined by 300,000 people in the street who pled with their respective governments to take immediate action to reduce heat-trapping emissions.</p>
<p>As to the specific steps that each country would take, though, is still out for question. The United States, for example, has reduced its carbon emissions by 10 percent from 2005 to 2012, mainly by switching from coal to natural gas to create electricity. In the last two years, however, such emissions have risen slightly here as this country has become more productive.</p>
<p>For its part, the environmental movement is not sold: The Global Carbon Project says that global carbon emissions tied to energy and cement production have jumped 2.3 percent in the last year and that unless this trajectory changes, 30-year global temperatures will exceed the 3.6 degree Fahrenheit threshold set in 2009. The results could then wipe out valuable domestic and global economic advances.</p>
<p>Somehow, world leaders - present and future - have to reconcile the economic growth with the ecological footprint. Full transparency and closer oversight are a start. And, to the chagrin of some, public investments in modern energy technologies are also vital, and will advance the ball even further.</p>
<p>So, President Obama's energy and environmental legacy has in large measure been about the tale of two fuel forms that have dovetailed during his time in office: renewable power and shale gas. And while there will be those who say that this is an ironic turn of events, a closer look will suggest otherwise:</p>
<p>The White House has focused on investments in the New Economy, defined broadly as not just renewable technologies but also cleaner fossil fuels.</p>
<p>While America's most recent energy course can be nuanced and dissected, the president has carried out his campaign pledges and has changed the nation's energy direction. Whether that is good or bad is matter of interpretation. But we can say that the U.S, generally, has emerged from the dark halls of recession and into the sunshine with potentially better prospects, both ecologically and economically.</p>
</div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-article-category field-type-taxonomy-term-reference field-label-above clearfix"><h3 class="field-label">Category (Actual): </h3><ul class="links"><li class="taxonomy-term-reference-0"><a href="/article-categories/environmental">Environmental</a></li><li class="taxonomy-term-reference-1"><a href="/article-categories/energy-policy-legislation">Energy Policy &amp; Legislation</a></li><li class="taxonomy-term-reference-2"><a href="/article-categories/renewables">Renewables</a></li><li class="taxonomy-term-reference-3"><a href="/article-categories/strategy-planning">Strategy &amp; Planning</a></li><li class="taxonomy-term-reference-4"><a href="/article-categories/finance">Finance</a></li></ul></div><div class="field field-name-field-members-only field-type-list-boolean field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Viewable to All?:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"></div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-article-featured field-type-list-boolean field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Is Featured?:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"></div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-department field-type-taxonomy-term-reference field-label-above clearfix"><h3 class="field-label">Department: </h3><ul class="links"><li class="taxonomy-term-reference-0"><a href="/department/frontlines">Frontlines</a></li></ul></div><div class="field field-name-field-image-picture field-type-image field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Image Picture:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><img src="http://www.fortnightly.com/sites/default/files/1410-FR.jpg" width="1000" height="662" alt="" /></div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-fortnightly-40 field-type-list-boolean field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Is Fortnightly 40?:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"></div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-law-lawyers field-type-list-boolean field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Is Law &amp; Lawyers:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"></div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-tags field-type-taxonomy-term-reference field-label-above clearfix">
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Tue, 07 Oct 2014 18:21:54 +0000meacott18141 at http://www.fortnightly.comWhy is Electricity Use No Longer Growing?http://www.fortnightly.com/fortnightly/2014/09/why-electricity-use-no-longer-growing
<div class="field field-name-field-import-byline field-type-text-long field-label-inline clearfix"><div class="field-label">Byline:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><p><span style="font-size: 13.3333339691162px; line-height: 20.0063056945801px;">Steven Nadel and Rachel Young</span></p>
</div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-import-bio field-type-text-long field-label-inline clearfix"><div class="field-label">Author Bio:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><p class="p1" style="font-size: 13.3333339691162px; line-height: 20.0063056945801px;"><strong>Steven Nadel</strong> is Executive Director and <strong>Rachel Young</strong> is a Research Analyst at the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy (ACEEE). This article updates and summarizes a previous ACEEE White Paper on this topic.</p>
</div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-import-volume field-type-node-reference field-label-inline clearfix"><div class="field-label">Magazine Volume:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even">Fortnightly Magazine - September 2014</div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-import-image field-type-image field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Image:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><img src="http://www.fortnightly.com/sites/default/files/1409-FEA3-fig1.jpg" width="1368" height="857" alt="" /></div><div class="field-item odd"><img src="http://www.fortnightly.com/sites/default/files/1409-FEA3-fig2.jpg" width="1376" height="877" alt="" /></div><div class="field-item even"><img src="http://www.fortnightly.com/sites/default/files/1409-FEA3-fig3.jpg" width="1376" height="861" alt="" /></div><div class="field-item odd"><img src="http://www.fortnightly.com/sites/default/files/1409-FEA3-table1.jpg" width="1368" height="809" alt="" /></div><div class="field-item even"><img src="http://www.fortnightly.com/sites/default/files/1409-FEA3-fig4.jpg" width="1356" height="1113" alt="" /></div><div class="field-item odd"><img src="http://www.fortnightly.com/sites/default/files/1409-FEA3-fig5.jpg" width="1352" height="937" alt="" /></div><div class="field-item even"><img src="http://www.fortnightly.com/sites/default/files/1409-FEFA3-fig6.jpg" width="1356" height="865" alt="" /></div></div></div><div class="field field-name-body field-type-text-with-summary field-label-hidden"><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><p>Electricity consumption has essentially stopped growing in the past few years. Retail electricity sales in 2013 were 1.9% lower than sales in 2007, the peak year. Some observers have attributed this stalled growth to the 2008 economic recession, while others have suggested a variety of other factors. In this paper we consider which factors best explain changes in electricity use in recent years.</p>
<p>The rate of electricity demand growth in the United States has declined steadily over the last 50 years. Prior to the 1970s energy crises, U.S. electricity sales were growing by more than 5% per year. As recently as the early 1990s, growth was more than 2% per year. Figure 1 illustrates these trends along with Energy Information Administration (EIA) projections going forward.</p>
<p>In the past few years, electricity growth has essentially stopped. As Figure 2 shows, electricity sales peaked in 2007, declined significantly in 2008 and 2009 (the recession is likely an important factor), rebounded in 2010, and have trended downward since. In 2014, due to the cold winter electricity sales were up substantially relative to 2013 in the first quarter but level with 2013 in the second quarter.</p>
<p>Looking at the trends by sector, Figure 3 below shows changes in electricity use in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors over the 1990-2013 period. Residential use peaked in 2010, commercial and industrial use both peaked in 2007. Residential consumption in 2013 was 3.8% below 2010 levels. Industrial consumption was 7.1% lower in 2013 than in 2007. Only commercial consumption has rebounded, with 2013 use 0.2% above 2007 levels.</p>
<p>In the 1980s, the Committee on Electricity in Economic Growth found that "there has been a strong correlation between the use of electricity and the size of the gross national product." and also that "there is a strong connection between electricity and productivity growth" This correlation changed in the last few years (<em>see Figure 1</em>). A key question is whether the last few years are an aberration or a long term trend.</p>
<p>In the past couple of years, several writers have noted the lack of demand growth and speculated on reasons for the change. For example, Faruqui and Shultz, writing in this journal (see, <a href="http://www.fortnightly.com/fortnightly/2012/12/demand-growth-and-new-normal" target="_blank">Demand Growth and the New Normal</a>, <i>Public Utilities Fortnightly</i>, December 2012), posited five explanations for low demand growth: a weak economy, utility demand-side management efforts, building codes and equipment efficiency standards, distributed generation, and fuel switching. None of these recent writers has tried to examine data on which factors are most important and why, nor have they examined the various possible contributing factors in detail.</p>
<p>In this paper we examine trend data for a variety of potential explanatory factors and also report the results of a preliminary statistical analysis.</p>
<h4>Trend Data</h4>
<p>To get a handle on which changes might be substantial, Figure 4 plots changes in electricity per capita relative to per capita changes in several other key variables:</p>
<p>1. Gross domestic product</p>
<p>2. Average real electricity price (in constant $, excluding the effects of inflation),</p>
<p>3. Savings from utility-sector energy efficiency programs</p>
<p>4. Savings from equipment efficiency standards</p>
<p>5. Electricity generated by end users (residential, commercial and industrial sectors),</p>
<p>6. Cooling degree days (CDD) (a measure of weather that triggers a need for space cooling)</p>
<p>7. Heating degree days (HDD) (a measure of weather that triggers a need for space heating).</p>
<p>This figure plots changes in electricity use and each of these variables over the 2007-2013 period, normalizing the data so that the 2007 value for each variable is set to 1 and the relative change for each variable relative to 2007 is shown by a value above or below 1 (<i>e.g.</i>, 1.2 or 0.9).</p>
<p>Figure 4 shows a dramatic rise in energy efficiency savings since 2007, both from utility programs and appliance efficiency standards. Customer generation grows in the past three years. Heating and cooling degree days also change from year to year (note - these plots do not show the cold winter in early 2014). The other variables change by modest amounts over this period.</p>
<p>Given the potential significance of energy efficiency savings, we looked further into these data. Over the 2007-2013 period, electricity consumption in the U.S. declined by 1.9%, an average of 0.32% per year. Population grew by an average of 0.81% per year, while electricity use per capita declined by 0.80% per year. According to data from the Lawrence Berkeley National Lab (LBL), incremental annual savings from energy efficiency standards averaged 0.62% per year over this period. Incremental annual savings from utility energy efficiency programs averaged 0.40% per year according to our data set. A 2012 analysis by LBL staff of residential building codes over the 1970-2006 period and published in <i>The Energy Journal</i> estimated that these codes reduced electricity use by about 0.1% per year. This study did not examine commercial building codes, but based on our own analyses, savings from commercial codes are similar to and often a little higher than savings from residential codes.</p>
<p>In addition, the increase in distributed electricity generation in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors over the 2007-2013 period has averaged about 0.11% per year. Nearly two-thirds of this increase was in 2012 and 2013, with the increase in customer generation accounting for about 0.2% of electricity sales in 2012 and 2013. Electricity generation in the residential sector has been steadily increasing, generation in the commercial sector has been increasing modestly, and industrial generation goes up and down (<i>see Table 1</i>). The impact of customer generation (0.2% of sales in recent years) is much smaller than the impact of energy efficiency (about 1% per year), but given the rapid growth in residential generation in recent years, customer generation may have an increasing affect on electricity sales in future years.</p>
<p>Taken together, the savings from utility energy efficiency programs (about 0.4% per year), appliance and equipment efficiency standards (0. 6% per year), and building codes (0.2% per year) total about 1.2% per year. This figure is greater than the decline in electricity use per capita and more than explains the 0.32% per year decline in electricity sales. Changes in other factors could have offset some of these effects. For example, modest increases in manufacturing GDP, modest decreases in industrial electricity price, cooler winters and warmer summers all contributed to slightly higher electricity use, offsetting a portion of the energy efficiency savings. This summation is approximate and should not be viewed as definitive; each of these estimates is subject to substantial uncertainty.</p>
<h4>Statistical Analysis</h4>
<p>In order to better gauge the relative impact of the different factors discussed in the sections above, we conducted an initial statistical analysis, drawing on national data over the 1993-2013 period, to try to tease out the relative impact of the economy, weather, energy efficiency programs, and other factors on electricity use. We are not statisticians or econometricians, so this analysis should be considered preliminary; we leave it to researchers with more skills in these areas to conduct more definitive analyses. Details of the analysis are described in a paper listed at the end of this article. Separate equations were prepared for residential/commercial and industrial electricity use. Overall, the equations explained 58% of the variance in residential/commercial electricity use per capita and 76% of the variance in industrial electricity use.</p>
<p>For the residential/commercial analysis, four explanatory variables were statistically significant with a 95% probability: cooling degree days, heating degree days, non-manufacturing GDP, and energy efficiency savings. Electricity price was not statistically significant as there was little change in the real residential/commercial electricity price over this period.</p>
<p>For the industrial analysis, manufacturing GDP and non-oil imports and a constant term were statistically with 95% confidence while price was significant with 90% confidence. Energy efficiency savings from utility programs and equipment efficiency standards were modest and were not statistically significant. There is no good source of data customer efficiency investments outside of utility programs and therefore these investments could not be included in the analysis.</p>
<p>Figure 5 looks at contributors to the decline in residential and commercial electricity use in recent years, applying the results of the regression analysis to each year of the 2007-2013 period and then averaging the annual results. This figure shows the large impact of savings from energy efficiency standards and utility energy efficiency programs over this period. The analysis period did not include the very cold weather in winter 2014 as the analysis is based on full-year data.</p>
<p>For the industrial analysis we have not yet revised this analysis to include 2013. An earlier analysis covering 2007-2012 found that the biggest impact on industrial electricity use over the 2007-2012 period was energy efficiency. However, as noted earlier, the energy efficiency coefficient was not statistically significant, and therefore this result is subject to substantial uncertainty. The next largest impact was changes in manufacturing GDP and non-oil imports, which caused industrial sector electricity use to <i>increase</i> over this period since these variables have increased in recent years. Third in impact was the constant term, indicating a steady and long-term decline in electricity use <i>after controlling for the other factors</i>. Electricity price modestly decreased over this period, causing a modest <i>increase</i> in electricity use. GDP plus imports, price, and the constant term were statistically significant.</p>
<h4>What the Data Indicate</h4>
<p>These various analyses suggest that energy efficiency has likely affected electricity use. Over the 1993-2013 period, changes in electricity use were most influenced by energy efficiency programs and policies, warmer weather, changes in GDP, changes in electricity prices and long-term trends. Given differences between the residential/commercial and industrial sectors and correlations between variables, it is difficult to separate out the exact contribution of each of these individual variables. Our regression analysis only explains about 58-76% of the variance in electricity use, so additional factors are influencing the results. Further work is needed to identify and analyze these variables, and as new variables are added, the results will change somewhat.</p>
<p>Over the more recent period of 2007-2013, savings from energy efficiency programs and policies appear to be the most important contributor to declining electricity use. Over this period, savings from equipment efficiency standards and utility-sector energy efficiency programs have increased substantially, and these effects were statistically significant for the residential/commercial sectors but not for the industrial sector. The other variables we examined, such as GDP, non-energy imports, heating and cooling degree days and electricity prices, have not changed as much. Furthermore (while outside of our regression analysis), the effects of building codes also add to the energy efficiency savings, and customer generation of electricity increased substantially in 2012 and 2013.</p>
<p>Our results are consistent with a recent regression analysis by Afsah and Salcito from the CO<b><sub>2</sub></b> Scorecard that found that energy efficiency and conservation measures were the primary cause of reduced CO<b><sub>2</sub></b> emissions in the United States in 2012. These authors estimate that nearly 75% of the decline in emissions was due to reduced energy demand, primarily attributable to energy efficiency but with a helping hand from the mild winter in the first quarter of 2012. The remaining emissions reductions were due to a shift toward natural gas in the electric power sector. Our findings are also broadly consistent with two econometric studies by Horowitz. In a 2007 study he found that over the 1973-2003 period, "those states that have moderate to strong commitment to energy efficiency programs reduce electricity intensity relative to what it would have been with weak program commitment." In a 2012 study he finds that over the 2006-2010 period, energy efficiency programs and policies in California reduced California electricity use by 7.3%.</p>
<h4>What About the Future?</h4>
<p>The million dollar question is whether these recent trends will continue. On the one hand, energy efficiency programs continue to ramp up. These trends are likely to accelerate if EPA's recently proposed rules for carbon dioxide emissions from existing power plants are finalized in something close to their current form. Under the draft rule published in June of this year, one of the "building blocks" for state emissions reduction targets is end-use efficiency programs, gradually ramping up to 1.5% incremental electricity use reductions annually. On the other hand, if and when the economy clicks into higher gear, it is possible that the relationship between electricity use and economic growth could return to its former pattern. For example, Chad Burne of American Electric Power posited at a recent PJM workshop that electricity use may be more linked to the unemployment rate than GDP. Also, the LBL estimate of savings from equipment efficiency standards is particularly large for 2012 and 2013 due to lamp efficiency standards; they project a slower rate of savings increase the next few years.</p>
<p>In order to look at a range of possible futures, in a recent study on <i>The Future of the Utility Industry and the Role of Energy Efficiency</i>, we looked at three possible scenarios for future electricity use. In one, labeled the "medium-change" or "reference" case, we used EIA's projections from their <i>2014 Annual Energy Outlook</i> (early release version). This forecast projects U.S. electricity use will grow an average of 0.7% per year over the 2014-2040 period. The second, scenario, labeled "medium-high change", includes increased energy efficiency (along the lines of the recent EPA proposal) and increased penetration of rooftop photovoltaic systems and electric vehicles, based on a variety of projections by others. Under this scenario, electricity sales are flat through to 2040. The third scenario, labeled "high change" includes even more aggressive implementation of energy efficiency, photovoltaics and electric vehicles, using very aggressive assumptions, such as assuming photovoltaics saturate available roof area in some regions. Under this scenario, electricity sales decline 0.4% per year over the forecast horizon. These results are shown in figure 6. This analysis also looked separately at 20 regions of the U.S., and results varied somewhat between regions. For example, in the most aggressive scenario, regional results varied between a 1.3% annual decline in sales to a 0.3% annual increase. This range of sales forecasts suggests two findings. First, even the most extreme case - a decline of 1.3% per year in one region - is far from the "death spiral" that some observers have postulated. Second, sales are likely to grow less in the future than they have in the past, and therefore, utilities will need to adjust their business plans accordingly.</p>
<p>This set of analyses suggests that increased energy efficiency is likely a major contributor to decreased electricity growth rates over the 2007-2013 period. Further analysis is needed to better understand the contribution of energy efficiency as opposed to economic and other factors, particularly in the industrial sector where energy efficiency data are less complete and GDP and electricity use trends have recently diverged. Also, for all sectors, it will be useful to repeat the analysis in a few years to see if the recent decline in electricity use and the contribution of energy efficiency to this decline continue, or if the last few years have merely been an aberration in long-term trends. Future trends for electricity sales are highly uncertain, but reasonable predictions range from modest growth to modest decline, with level sales on a national basis the most likely estimate.</p>
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Wed, 03 Sep 2014 22:47:54 +0000meacott17881 at http://www.fortnightly.comDemand Growth and the New Normalhttp://www.fortnightly.com/fortnightly/2012/12/demand-growth-and-new-normal
<div class="field field-name-field-import-deck field-type-text-long field-label-inline clearfix"><div class="field-label">Deck:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><p>Five forces are putting the squeeze on electricity consumption.</p>
</div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-import-byline field-type-text-long field-label-inline clearfix"><div class="field-label">Byline:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><p>Ahmad Faruqui and Eric Shultz</p>
</div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-import-bio field-type-text-long field-label-inline clearfix"><div class="field-label">Author Bio:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><p><b>Ahmad Faruqui</b> is a principal at The Brattle Group, and <b>Eric Shultz</b> is a research analyst. This article was revised from Faruqui’s presentation at the Goldman Sachs Power &amp; Utility Conference on Aug. 14, 2012. The authors acknowledge research assistance by Jennifer Palmer.</p>
</div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-import-volume field-type-node-reference field-label-inline clearfix"><div class="field-label">Magazine Volume:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even">Fortnightly Magazine - December 2012</div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-import-image field-type-image field-label-above"><div class="field-label">Image:&nbsp;</div><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><img src="http://www.fortnightly.com/sites/default/files/1212-FEA1-fig1.jpg" width="2058" height="1030" alt="Figure 1 - Electricity Sales Growth (Two-Decade Distributions)" title="Figure 1 - Electricity Sales Growth (Two-Decade Distributions)" /></div><div class="field-item odd"><img src="http://www.fortnightly.com/sites/default/files/1212-FEA1-fig2.jpg" width="1029" height="735" alt="Figure 2 - Cumulative Demand Growth (2010-2035)" title="Figure 2 - Cumulative Demand Growth (2010-2035)" /></div><div class="field-item even"><img src="http://www.fortnightly.com/sites/default/files/1212-FEA1-fig3.jpg" width="2094" height="1138" alt="Figure 3 - Arc of Price Responsiveness" title="Figure 3 - Arc of Price Responsiveness" /></div><div class="field-item odd"><img src="http://www.fortnightly.com/sites/default/files/1212-FEA1-fig4.jpg" width="1400" height="973" alt="Figure 4 - Impact of Codes and Standards on Electricity Consumption" title="Figure 4 - Impact of Codes and Standards on Electricity Consumption" /></div><div class="field-item even"><img src="http://www.fortnightly.com/sites/default/files/1212-FEA1-fig5.jpg" width="1023" height="2034" alt="Figure 5 - Efficiency Gains of ENERGY STAR Qualified Models" title="Figure 5 - Efficiency Gains of ENERGY STAR Qualified Models" /></div><div class="field-item odd"><img src="http://www.fortnightly.com/sites/default/files/1212-FEA1-fig6a.jpg" width="1368" height="1038" alt="Figure 6 - ERCOT Loads in Texas (3/9/11 and 8/3/11)" title="Figure 6 - ERCOT Loads in Texas (3/9/11 and 8/3/11)" /></div></div></div><div class="field field-name-body field-type-text-with-summary field-label-hidden"><div class="field-items"><div class="field-item even"><p>Demand for electricity has plummeted since the onset of the recession in December 2007. And while the recession ended 18 months later, the slowdown in growth has persisted. It’s tempting to attribute the slowdown in growth to the recession, but that would be wrong.</p>
<p>The distribution of electricity sales growth—two-decade intervals—presented in Figure 1 shows that demand growth has been declining since 1950, from an average annual electricity sales growth rate of 9.86 percent during the ’50s to an average annual growth rate of 0.85 percent in the first decade of the 21st century. To some extent, a slowdown in population growth since 2009 might be blamed for a slowdown in demand growth. However, after rising in the 1990s from around 11,000 kWh to 12,000 kWh, per-capita consumption has flattened off. On an aggregate basis, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, total delivered electricity use in the all sectors is predicted to increase at an annual growth rate of 0.7 percent per year from 2010 through the year 2035.</p>
<p>The agency also expects electricity consumption per U.S. household to decline in this time frame. The commercial sector will lead growth through 2035, mirroring the de-industrialization of the economy. As shown in Figure 2, cumulative growth will come in at 18 percent in the residential sector, 28 percent in the commercial sector, and 2 percent in the industrial sector.Long-term forecasts of peak demand growth are also on a downward trajectory. In the last decade, according to the North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC), the projected growth in summer peak demand has declined each year, from 1.79 percent in 2002 to 1.23 percent in 2011. After the recession in 2008, we experienced the biggest absolute decrease in growth, from 1.5 percent in 2009 to 1.23 percent in 2008. But the recession isn’t the only main force behind this decrease in growth. Five primary forces are creating the new normal: the weak economy; demand-side management; codes and standards; distributed generation; and fuel switching all play major roles. In addition, there are secondary forces such as other energy efficiency policies—<i>i.e.,</i> state-specific energy efficiency portfolio standards; and natural competition between manufacturers, which further boosts energy efficiency of products. Such forces dampen demand growth as well.</p>
<h4>A Weak Economy</h4>
<p>While the 2008 and 2009 economic recession was met with an expected drop in electricity demand, the subsequent tepid recovery has been paired with a slow growth in demand. Electricity demand is specifically tied to economic recovery, as the “pace and shape” of economic recovery will dramatically influence electricity demand. As stated in NERC’s 2011 Long-Term Reliability Assessment:</p>
<p>“With greater uncertainty in future electricity use attributed to the recent economic recessions, continuously updating demand forecasts are essential to the planning process. Furthermore, the pace and shape of economic recovery will dramatically influence demand growth across North America in the next 10 years. Largely unpredictable economic conditions resulted in a degree of uncertainty in the 2009 and 2010 demand forecasts not typically seen in periods of more stable economic activity. It is vital that the electric industry maintain flexible options for increasing its resource supply in order to respond effectively to rapid, upward changes in forecast electricity requirements and any unforeseen resource development issues.”</p>
<p>Some of the recessionary impacts might be permanent. In an effort to cut operational costs to maximize profits, businesses have relocated offshore. Some industrial facilities have closed completely. Right now, people are unemployed, underemployed, or underpaid, thus reducing electric consumption and the purchase of electricity-consuming appliances. The tepid recovery has led to a new psychology of frugality and pessimism about the prospects for the U.S. economy. Such a decrease in consumer confidence, a major driver for consumption, has led to the inevitable drag on consumer spending. Demand forecasters find that even after they put actual economic growth rates in their models and analyze past results, they’re still over-estimating demand; consumer demand curves apparently have shifted inwards as consumers engage in belt-tightening. Considerable uncertainty remains over the global and national economy, which will continue to weigh down on demand growth. The recently issued report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates the U.S. risk of recession in 2013 at 15 percent, and warns that, “U.S. legislators must soon remove the threat of the fiscal cliff and raise the debt ceiling. If they fail to do so, the U.S. economy could fall back into recession.”</p>
<h4>Demand-Side Management</h4>
<p>The increased penetration of demand-side management (DSM) throughout the United States has put downward pressure on demand growth. DSM programs and technologies enable consumers to reduce peak demand and electric energy consumption by providing customers with incentives to buy more energy efficient technologies and to shift demand from peak hours—where the power grid is stressed due to high demand—to off-peak hours. Such peak hours occur during periods of hot weather, for example, when customers crank up air conditioning units. DSM programs often encourage this shift in demand through monetary savings in the form of peak time rebates or other dynamic pricing schemes. These pricing schemes set electric prices highest during peak hours where demand is highest, and prices lowest during off-peak hours where demand is lower.</p>
<p>All areas in NERC’s forecast are expecting increases in DSM over the next 10 years. In 2021, DSM is projected to reach 55,000 MW, or 4.5 percent of the on-peak resource portfolio. Other estimates are even more optimistic about DSM. In 2010 The Brattle Group polled 50 experts to get their forecasts of demand response and electric energy efficiency savings. The survey indicated that demand response is expected to reduce peak demand by between 7.5 and 15 percent by the year 2020. Dynamic pricing is rolling out, spurred on by pilots and rapid smart meter deployment. California leads the charge, where two major utilities—San Diego Gas &amp; Electric (SDGE) and Southern California Edison (SCE)—currently have approximately 3.8 million customers on critical peak rebate (CPR) or peak time rebate (PTR) rates. Under these programs, utilities specify “peak event” days on which customers are paid a rebate for electricity saved during the designated peak period.</p>
<p>The results of similar programs around the world are illustrated by data from dynamic and time-of-use pricing pilots. Figure 3 plots the arc of price responsiveness—<i>e.g.,</i> demand response as a function of the ratio of peak to off-peak prices. The amount of demand response rises with the price ratio, but at a decreasing rate. When the data are regressed, about half of the variation in demand response can be explained by variations in the price ratio. This result is remarkable because the programs differ in many factors, from regional climate to marketing approach. (See Ahmad Faruqui and Jenny Palmer, “<a href="http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2020587" target="_blank">The Discovery of Price Responsiveness – A Survey of Experiments Involving Dynamic Pricing of Electricity</a>,” <i>EDI Quarterly</i>, April 2012.)</p>
<p>The model also shows that enabling technologies—such as in-home displays, energy orbs and programmable and communicating thermostats—further increase the amount of demand response.</p>
<p>Environmental concerns have come to the forefront, making demand-side management programs ever more important to consumers. A new generation of consumers is emerging—and for this generation, conservation isn’t just a personal virtue. Web portals and social media are raising the consumers’ energy consciousness, and increasingly they understand that DSM reduces electricity use, and therefore cuts emissions. As a result, about 7 million households in North America are saving 1.4 billion kWh of electricity per year due to home energy reports that compare their monthly usage with their peer groups’ usage. And more consumers now are looking to buy high efficiency air-conditioning systems and refrigerators, while replacing old lighting systems that use incandescent lights with high-efficiency compact fluorescent (CFL) or light emitting diode (LED) systems.</p>
<p>Moreover, efficiency has become an important sales tool for all manner of products. Televisions are getting more energy efficient, and laptop computers and tablets continue gaining greater market share over power-hungry desktop PCs, further reducing energy consumption per capita. Businesses are looking to buy high efficiency heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems while industrial facilities are looking to more efficient electric motors and those equipped with adjustable speed drives. So even as electrification of the economy continues, it’s doing so in an increasingly efficient way—further constraining the demand growth curve.</p>
<h4>Codes and Standards</h4>
<p>Utilities and customers aren’t the only groups responding to these concerns. The federal government has imposed codes and standards that promote energy efficiency in appliances and buildings. Additionally, several states have passed laws either requiring or promoting energy efficiency. Rapidly expanding innovation in appliances and building technologies, spurred on by state legislation and mandates, has significantly reduced energy consumption in buildings. California, the Pacific Northwest, and most states in the Northeast are leading the country in this regard. These areas are subject to major strains on the grid during peak demand hours, and regulators are using building efficiency standards as tools for helping grid operators balance electric demand and supply. As seen in Figure 4, new codes and standards could dramatically decrease baseline energy consumption. In fact, the EIA attributes declining per capita residential electricity sales to new federal lighting standards in the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2007, which took effect on Jan. 1, 2012. The act stipulates that general-service lamps providing 310 to 2,600 lumens of light are required to consume 30 percent less energy than typical incandescent bulbs, and compact fluorescent and LED lamps replace low-efficiency incandescent lamps. As a result of these standards, the EIA estimates that delivered energy used for lighting per household will fall by 827 kWh per year by 2035, a 47 percent decrease from the 2010 level.</p>
<p>Programs such as ENERGY STAR and the Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) that promote energy efficiency are gaining more traction and support <i>(see Figure 5)</i>. ENERGY STAR is a government testing and labeling program that promotes energy efficiency products for the home and businesses. Through increased efficiency, products such as refrigerators and computers can reduce emissions and save money through the use of less electricity.</p>
<p>Like ENERGY STAR, LEED has improved public awareness by providing a framework for green building design, construction, operation, and maintenance. LEED uses a point-based system (0 to 100) to give building projects scores for satisfying these criteria. Building projects awarded a score of 80 points and above are given the highest certification—Platinum. The other certification levels, in descending rank, are Gold, Silver, and Certified. LEED has made designing buildings with energy efficiency in mind an attractive option for businesses to both save operating costs and to look good in the public eye. LEED certification has even been shown to increase the market value of properties, pushing many businesses and building designers to keep energy conservation and efficiency in mind when constructing or renovating buildings. The U.S. Green Building Council estimates that LEED certification increases a building’s value by 10.9 percent for new construction projects and 6.8 percent for existing sites.</p>
<h4>Distributed Generation</h4>
<p>Distributed generation with net metering could further reduce electricity demand significantly in the coming years. Distributed generation (DG), such as rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) panels and microturbines, is producing a growing share of the overall electricity supply. While that share remains tiny today, the Energy Information Administration predicts significant increases in distributed generation, especially when complemented with investment tax credits and other policies, and particularly among commercial and small industrial end users. The EIA projects that both solar PV and microturbine electric generation additions between 2010 and 2035 will outpace the growth in conventional natural gas-fired cogeneration, wind, and fuel cells.</p>
<p>A key policy variable involves net metering, which enables distributed generation to expand. In 2003, there were less than 7,000 customers in the United States on net metering. By 2030, this number is expected to reach 156,000—mainly fueled by a rapid expansion of net metering in California, which will account for roughly half of this number. In California, the state’s 5 percent cap on net-metered customers is predicted to be reached by 2015. Nevertheless, 156,000 customers would amount to only 0.1 percent of total electricity sales in the United States.</p>
<p>Growth in distributed generation depends primarily on four factors: the retail cost of electricity; the cost of on-site generation; net metering regulations; and storms and outages. While the retail cost of electricity has been increasing, the cost of on-site generation has decreased, making DG a more attractive option for customers. Most notably, the average price for solar panels continues to fall, decreasing overall by 97.2 percent from $30 per watt in 1975 to $0.84 per watt in 2012.</p>
<p>Net metering regulations vary by state, because each state’s generation mix is different, and so are such policies as renewable energy portfolio standards. But in general, major storms are becoming more frequent, often resulting in outages—sometimes with extended consequences, such as those in the wake of Superstorm Sandy in the fall of 2012. Estimates for U.S.-wide customer cost of power outages range from $20 billion to $150 billion per year.</p>
<p>The 2003 U.S. blackout in the Northeast alone resulted in $7 billion to $10 billion in economic losses. In an August 2012 report, the Congressional Research Service stated that “data from various studies lead to cost estimates from storm-related outages to the U.S. economy at between $20 billion and $55 billion annually. Data also suggest the trend of outages from weather-related events is increasing.”</p>
<p>Generating power on-site through the use of reciprocating engines, PV, or wind turbines provides consumers an opportunity to hedge the cost of power outages. With distributed generation, net-zero energy homes can become a reality. In Austin, Texas, the Zero Energy Capable Homes program seeks to have all new single-family homes be net-zero energy capable by 2015. The largest community of net-zero homes in the United States is rising in West Village at UC Davis in California. The California Energy Commission has called for all new residential construction to be zero net energy by 2020 and for all new commercial construction to be zero net energy by 2030. However, policy makers and utility executives are still grappling with the question of who will pay for the grid if all of this comes to pass.</p>
<h4>Fuel Switching</h4>
<p>The final primary factor explaining the projected decreased growth in U.S. electricity demand is fuel switching. Due to technological innovations in hydraulic fracturing, the United States has a glut of natural gas. This outward shift in natural gas supply has been met with an expected plummet in gas prices, making natural gas an even more attractive option for heating; consequently, more customers might switch away from electricity to natural gas for heating in the near future. According to the EIA, “Henry Hub spot prices for natural gas rise by 2.1 percent per year from 2010 through 2035 in the Reference case, to an annual average of $7.37 per million Btu (2010 dollars) in 2035.” The average electricity price to all users, in 2010 dollars, would rise from $28.68 to $29.56, an increase of 0.1 percent. However, when accounting for greenhouse gas standards in the future that might introduce carbon taxes, electricity prices could increase by 25 percent and 33 percent relative to EIA’s base-case scenario in the GHG15 and GHG25 cases respectively.</p>
<p>In addition, technological innovation could spur more fuel switching from electricity to natural gas. Oak Ridge National Laboratory has developed gas-fired heat pumps, which could supply both heating and cooling. The expansion of combined heat and power (CHP) systems also will reduce the demand for electricity for heating purposes. Many industrial facilities now can satisfy their electricity and thermal needs using one fuel source. Instead of purchasing electricity for heating purposes, these facilities serve heating needs with waste heat that previously was released into the environment.</p>
<h4>Variables and Regional Factors</h4>
<p>Apart from the five primary factors affecting demand growth, a host of other forces are putting upward or downward pressure on electricity demand. The list is extensive: energy efficiency policies such as state-specific energy efficiency portfolio standards; natural competition between manufacturers, leading to improvements in energy efficiency of products; disruptive end-use technologies such as home automation, green buttons, and smart phones.</p>
<p>Of course, some factors could drive demand growth higher in the coming years. The digitalization of life at home and in the workplace has increased the need for electricity to power new appliances and technologies. And plug-in electric vehicles, while saving customers substantial gasoline costs, will bring a major increase in electricity use. Also, increasing home sizes result in more energy consumption, just as aging baby-boomers are spending more time at home. Plus, the United States population increasingly is migrating to warmer states, leading to increased demand for space cooling.</p>
<p>Across the country, there is considerable variation in demand growth and in the reasons why this growth has slowed down. An informal survey of utility forecasters helped to identify some of these regional differences.</p>
<p>In California, new home construction has collapsed in the wake of the recession, reducing forecasts for electricity demand. Manufacturers are resorting to self-generation and microturbines, cutting their share of electricity demand from 33 percent to 10 percent. Meanwhile, advanced metering has rolled out and dynamic pricing is following suit.</p>
<p>EV adoption, meanwhile, might moderate California’s falling electricity demand. NRG Energy is funding the installation of electric car charging stations across the state. Because one of the main barriers to electric vehicle expansion is the lack of an electric charging infrastructure, such a move might enable an increase in the penetration of plug-in electric vehicles in the vehicle market.</p>
<p>In the Pacific Northwest, industrial self-generation is rising, old industries are shutting down, and new industries, such as server farms, aren’t creating many jobs. In the Midwest, weather-adjusted use per household has dropped in the third quarter for the past two years. New England has seen both energy efficiency and demand response bid into forward capacity markets. New York’s housing construction has slowed down, possibly due to delayed family formation. In PJM, FERC approved price-responsive demand in the RTO’s tariff and operating agreements, allowing the rollout of advanced metering on a system-wide basis. More than 2 million customers will be on dynamic pricing in the next few years. In the Southwest, the recession hit hard and the housing market collapsed. Declining population growth there also might lead to decreased demand growth. In the Tennessee Valley, consumers are responding to the buzz about efficiency by taking actions to save money and conserve.</p>
<p>And then there’s Texas, where the mass market is primed for demand response. Perhaps nothing better illustrates the potential for demand response in Texas than comparing two Wednesday evenings in different seasons of the year. Figure 6 shows the ERCOT loads in Texas for Weds., March 9, 2011 and Weds., Aug. 3, 2011. On March 9 at 5:15 p.m., when the temperature in Dallas was 64 degrees F, the ERCOT load was 31,262 MW. Residential demand was approximately 8,500 MW, contributing to 27.4 percent of total demand. At 5:00 p.m. on the summer evening of August 3, the ERCOT load more than doubled that of March 9 at 68,416 MW. The temperature in Dallas at the time was 109 degrees F, prompting many customers to pump up air conditioning units. The residential class contributed 51.2 percent of demand (35,000 MW), about four times the amount it contributed on March 9.</p>
<p>As DSM expands in the coming decades, the gap in electric demand in Dallas and other hot areas across the country should narrow.</p>
<h4>Redefining ‘Normal’</h4>
<p>When all is said and done, the drop in electricity demand growth seems to be permanent, not transitory. It would be a mistake to attribute this drop solely to the recession and assume that it will go away once normal economic activity resumes. As seen in Figure 1, the drop is consistent with the historical trend of demand growth. The new normal might be demand growth at about half of the pre-recession value, in the 0.7 percent to 0.9 percent annual range.</p>
<p>For utilities and regulators, survival in this sub 1-percent growth world calls for new thinking, such as initiatives in many states to decouple a utility’s earnings from its sales volume. As Peter Fox-Penner argues in <i>Smart Power</i>, utilities should consider becoming smart wires companies or integrated energy service companies. However, for this all to happen, enlightened regulators will have to rewrite the rules of the game—in a way that works both for utilities and their ever-changing customers.</p>
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<a href="/tags/demand">Demand</a><span class="pur_comma">, </span><a href="/tags/recession">recession</a><span class="pur_comma">, </span><a href="/tags/population-growth">population growth</a><span class="pur_comma">, </span><a href="/tags/energy-information-administration-0">Energy Information Administration</a><span class="pur_comma">, </span><a href="/tags/electricity-consumption">electricity consumption</a><span class="pur_comma">, </span><a href="/tags/north-american-electric-reliability-council">North American Electric Reliability Council</a><span class="pur_comma">, </span><a href="/tags/nerc">NERC</a><span class="pur_comma">, </span><a href="/tags/brattle-group">Brattle Group</a><span class="pur_comma">, </span><a href="/tags/goldman-sachs">Goldman Sachs</a><span class="pur_comma">, </span><a href="/tags/jennifer-palmer">Jennifer Palmer</a><span class="pur_comma">, </span><a href="/tags/international-monetary-fund">International Monetary Fund</a><span class="pur_comma">, </span><a href="/tags/imf">IMF</a><span class="pur_comma">, </span><a href="/tags/demand-side-management-0">Demand-side management</a><span class="pur_comma">, </span><a href="/tags/dsm">DSM</a><span class="pur_comma">, </span><a href="/tags/san-diego-gas-electric-0">San Diego Gas &amp; Electric</a><span class="pur_comma">, </span><a href="/tags/sdge-0">SDGE</a><span class="pur_comma">, </span><a href="/tags/southern-california-edison">Southern California Edison</a><span class="pur_comma">, </span><a href="/tags/sce">SCE</a><span class="pur_comma">, </span><a href="/tags/critical-peak-rebate">critical peak rebate</a><span class="pur_comma">, </span><a href="/tags/cpr">CPR</a><span class="pur_comma">, </span><a href="/tags/peak-time-rebate">peak time rebate</a><span class="pur_comma">, </span><a href="/tags/ptr">PTR</a><span class="pur_comma">, </span><a href="/tags/home-display">in-home display</a><span class="pur_comma">, </span><a href="/tags/energy-orb">energy orb</a><span class="pur_comma">, </span><a href="/tags/thermostat">thermostat</a><span class="pur_comma">, </span><a href="/tags/social-media">Social media</a><span class="pur_comma">, </span><a href="/tags/compact-fluorescent">compact fluorescent</a><span class="pur_comma">, </span><a href="/tags/cfl">CFL</a><span class="pur_comma">, </span><a href="/tags/light-emitting-diode">light emitting diode</a><span class="pur_comma">, </span><a href="/tags/led">LED</a><span class="pur_comma">, </span><a href="/tags/energy-independence-and-security-act">Energy Independence and Security Act</a><span class="pur_comma">, </span><a href="/tags/eisa">EISA</a><span class="pur_comma">, </span><a href="/tags/energy-star">Energy Star</a><span class="pur_comma">, </span><a href="/tags/leadership-energy-and-environmental-design">Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design</a><span class="pur_comma">, </span><a href="/tags/leed">LEED</a><span class="pur_comma">, </span><a href="/tags/green-building-council">Green Building Council</a><span class="pur_comma">, </span><a href="/tags/distributed-generation">Distributed generation</a><span class="pur_comma">, </span><a href="/tags/dg">DG</a><span class="pur_comma">, </span><a href="/tags/photovoltaic">Photovoltaic</a><span class="pur_comma">, </span><a href="/tags/pv">PV</a><span class="pur_comma">, </span><a href="/tags/microturbine">microturbine</a><span class="pur_comma">, </span><a href="/tags/net-metering">Net metering</a><span class="pur_comma">, </span><a href="/tags/renewable-energy-portfolio-standards">renewable energy portfolio standards</a><span class="pur_comma">, </span><a href="/tags/superstorm-sandy">Superstorm Sandy</a><span class="pur_comma">, </span><a href="/tags/zero-energy-capable-homes">Zero Energy Capable Homes</a><span class="pur_comma">, </span><a href="/tags/net-zero">net-zero</a><span class="pur_comma">, </span><a href="/tags/uc-davis">UC Davis</a><span class="pur_comma">, </span><a href="/tags/california-energy-commission">California Energy Commission</a><span class="pur_comma">, </span><a href="/tags/fuel-switching">fuel switching</a><span class="pur_comma">, </span><a href="/tags/natural-gas">Natural gas</a><span class="pur_comma">, </span><a href="/tags/oak-ridge-national-laboratory">Oak Ridge National Laboratory</a><span class="pur_comma">, </span><a href="/tags/combined-heat-and-power">combined heat and power</a><span class="pur_comma">, </span><a href="/tags/chp">CHP</a><span class="pur_comma">, </span><a href="/tags/nrg-energy">NRG Energy</a><span class="pur_comma">, </span><a href="/tags/pjm">PJM</a><span class="pur_comma">, </span><a href="/tags/ferc">FERC</a><span class="pur_comma">, </span><a href="/tags/rto">RTO</a><span class="pur_comma">, </span><a href="/tags/peter-fox-penner">Peter Fox-Penner</a> </div>
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Fri, 30 Nov 2012 17:16:45 +0000puradmin16367 at http://www.fortnightly.com