The Run DownA little more than a year ago, this Washington Nationals system was regarded as the best in the game. Then a trade with Oakland sent a handful of prospects out west, their top draft pick went down with a broken ankle, and Bryce Harper graduated to the bigs. What’s left, now, is a system that’s filled to the brim with risky, oft-injured prospects. There is almost nothing here that I would consider safe. Top overall prospect Anthony Rendon is an exciting, high-impact guy, but he’s yet to play a full season as a pro. Top pitching prospect Lucas Giolito tossed only two professional innings before being shut down for Tommy John surgery. He won’t pitch again ’til 2014. The rest of the top ten seem to be rehabbing from their third labrum operation, or their twelfth precautionary arthroscopic elbow surgery. This is not among baseball’s top 20 farm systems at the moment, but thankfully for Washington fans, the Nationals have a young and talented collection of talent at the big league level already.

Top Ten Prospects
1. Anthony Rendon, 3B: After losing most of 2012 to a broken ankle, Rendon’s stock took a major hit. The 22-year-old, however, returned to elite prospect status this spring with a fantastic effort in big league camp: .375/.412/.875 with 4 homers in 13 games. He’ll begin 2013 at Double-A Harrisburg, but he’ll be knocking on the big club door in a hurry if he continues swinging a hot bat. Rendon brings an elite hit tool, great on base skills, and above average power. If he can stay healthy, he’ll be a high-impact fantasy option. For more on him, check out this Scouting the Unknown post from last August. ETA: Late 2013

2. Brian Goodwin, OF: Goodwin will return to Double-A to start the year. The 22-year-old features plus speed and an advanced approach to hitting. His power right now is a tick below average, but he can certainly build on that as he settles in at the upper levels. Goodwin is a prototype front-of-the-order bat, and he offers great defense in center. He should provide good AVG and plenty of stolen bases in the bigs. ETA: 2014

3. Lucas Giolito, RHP: Giolito hasn’t pitched since I wrote this post on him last August, and he’ll continue to not pitch in 2013 as he recovers from Tommy John surgery. The Nats are kinda good at bringing dudes back to full strength after TJ (Strasburg, Zimmerman), so it’s reasonable to assume that Giolito’s recovery will go well. Standing 6-6, 230, and featuring a high-end power arsenal, the 18-year-old profiles like an ace. There’s a long way to go, though, as he won’t pitch a meaningful game until 2014. ETA: 2017

4. A.J. Cole, RHP: Washington traded Cole to Oakland as part of the Gio Gonzalez deal back in December of 2011. Then, they got him back in the three-team Michael Morse swap earlier this year. The reacquisition was surely motivated by the slew of banged up pitching prospects in this Nationals system. Adding Cole gives the Nats a healthy arm with front-end potential. The 21-year-old will pitch at High-A to begin the season, but expect to see his plus-plus fastball in the upper levels at some point this year. ETA: 2015

5. Matt Skole, 3B: Skole hit .291/.426/.559 with 27 homers in 554 PA between Low- and High-A in 2012. The power is legit, and the approach is sound, but with most sources projecting the 23-year-old at first base, there’s little room for error with the bat. Skole will need to continue to mash as he steps up to Double-A in 2013, and I believe he will. ETA: 2014

6. Nate Karns, RHP: Karns returned from labrum surgery last season and proceeded to dominate A-ball: 2.17 ERA, 1.01, 11.5 K/9 in 116 IP between Low- and High-A. At age 24, he was one of the older participants in those leagues, but the health and success over a full season is hugely encouraging. If such production continues at Double-A, Karns will push toward the bigs quickly. A great fastball-curveball combo will draw plenty of whiffs, adding fantasy allure. ETA: Late 2013

7. Sammy Solis, RHP: Solis lost all of 2012 to Tommy John surgery and the Nats will ease him back into action in 2013. I’ve already touched on Washington’s recent success in rehabbing post-Tommy John arms, so there’s reason to be hopeful about Solis’s chances of returning to form. A big frame and a nice fastball-change combo have the 24-year-old looking like an innings eating #3 starter. ETA: 2015

8. Matt Purke, RHP: Another guy recovering from surgery — shoulder surgery, in this case, but not the scary labrum kind; this was a more routine procedure. In any case, Washington is hoping the operation helps Purke rediscover his plus-plus fastball, a pitch that had been regressing in recent years. If he can get back on track, he looks like a mid-rotation guy with a nice fastball-slider combo, and big whiff potential. ETA: 2015

9. Christian Garcia, RHP: After two Tommy John surgeries, Garcia finally put together a healthy season in 2012. As a relief arm, the fantasy intrigue isn’t enormous, although there is some potential for late innings work given his plus-plus fastball. But the Nationals haven’t yet given up on Garcia as a starter, so there’s still a glimmer of high-impact upside. More arm troubles this spring have set him back once again, but the current injury doesn’t appear too serious. Garcia should help the Nats in some capacity this season. ETA: 2013

10. Eury Perez, OF: Outstanding speed is Perez’s best attribute, and it carried him to Washington for a short stint last season. He’ll need to spend some more time improving his approach at the Triple-A level before he returns to the bigs, though. As it stands, he’s not well suited to get on base often at the highest level. With a below average hit tool, he’ll need to tone down the aggressiveness, work counts, and reach base, where his best tool can thrive. ETA: 2013

yup…Miami GM saying he’s throwing him 150-170 IP max all at major league level. Eovaldi and Alvarez both out 1 month to start season. Little surprised its J. Fernandez and not Jacob Turner that gets the call, but Fernandez is a top 5 SP prospect, so Im excited as well. Got a major league ready arm and physique to boot. Sexy shiiiit.

Only now that you guys don’t agree I’m conflicted again. I was all ready to take Puig over D’Arnaud. All the guys you mentioned above are gone in my keeper league. Was thinking I’d take the outfielder over the catcher. Thanks for your thoughts.

Yes, thanks Scott. I had Soler ranked above Puig as well. Then this Spring we see Puig the beast. I’ve already got B Ham and Yellich on my farm. Maybe I go back to taking D’Arnaud with that first pick. Can you project D’Arnaud for 2013 and 2014 for me?

Sorry for delay on this — easter stuff w/ family… Anyway. For this season, I have d’arnaud at 260/320/410 with 15ish homers in 400 or so PA. For next year, 275/335/440, 25 HR. I think he has rare makeup for a catcher & I don’t anticipate the usual slower learning curve for guys behind the dish…

Take the leap of faith on Jose Fernandez? I’d have to drop Rob Brantly in a 12-team, two-catcher NFBC league where the best available, semi-desirable C’s are Jason Castro and Wellington Castillo. My other catchers are SPerez and Iannetta. I have a decent starting staff of Price, Wainwright, Peavy, Estrada, Miller, Maholm, Gee, and McCarthy.
I’d have to make a free agent bid on Fernandez today from my $1,000 FAAB. I’m torn, and while I know it’s a long shot, I don’t want to miss out on what could be the pitching version of Trout/Harper. And yes…as I read that previous line back it looks insane to me!

@Public Enemy#1: Might be tough doing that in a money league. He could get a few starts and get sent back down. It is tough to say. In a free league getting him is easier to do. In a redraft money league I don’t think he is worth the risk.

I think you need to be bidding here, but given your situation, I don’t think you need to blow out your FAAB. Some dude in your league who doesn’t have a primo staff will end up dropping a few hundo on him & I imagine that’s too rich for what you’re willing to spend. Throw out a bid you’re comfortable with & maybe you’ll get lucky.

I like almost everything. I’m thinking Dickey regresses, but it doesn’t seem like you reached for him, so that’s ok. Motte’s situation keeps looking worse, so maybe try to scoop Rosenthal… my guess is that he’s the man if Motte misses significant time. Fernandez @ 236 is fine. And I like Konerko as a safe fallback in case Davis scuffles for the first half like he did last year. Good balance. Well done.