LIVE MARKETS-Thought of the day: if 2017 were a fund, it'd be in trouble

Reuters Staff

10 Min Read

* European stocks rise, FTSE touches record
* Euro zone services PMIs show growth near best in 7 years
* Heavily-shorted Debenhams sinks after profit warning
* Autos cruise to two-month peak
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THOUGHT OF THE DAY: IF 2017 WERE A FUND, IT'D BE IN TROUBLE (1316 GMT)
From SocGen's Andrew Lapthorne's research piece "The year-end numbers from the year
volatility died":
"Not only did global equity markets perform well during 2017 (MSCI World delivered a total
return of 20.1%), but they did so with such low volatility and consistency that if this were a
fund, it would perhaps merit a visit from the authorities to check exactly what you were up to!"
(Julien Ponthus)
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DON'T WORRY ABOUT THE FLAT U.S. YIELD CURVE (1240 GMT)
"U.S. recessions have usually occurred after the yield curve has been as flat as it is now,
but the lags have typically been long and variable, suggesting that it would be unwise to expect
a U.S. recession soon", says Oxford Economics' Ben May.
Here's his chart showing we may yet have time ahead of us before a recession given the
limited time the U.S. 10-year yield has been less than 50bp higher than the two-year yield:
(Julien Ponthus)
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MIDDAY UPDATE: EURO ZONE STOCKS SHOOT TO 2-WEEK HIGH (1230 GMT)
It looks like the optimism spurred by the PMIs is giving Euro zone indexes a kick higher,
with Euro stoxx up more than 1 percent at a 2-week high, and Euro zone blue chips
at their highest in a week.
Unsurprisingly, it's the cyclical sectors which continue to dominate: construction stocks,
autos, banks and big oil.
Here's your midday snapshot:
(Kit Rees)
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YES TO CYCLICAL EXPOSURE, BUT EUROPEAN BANKS NOT A SIMPLE 'BUY' (1212 GMT)
As the PMIs showed, the economic backdrop in Europe is strong and, along with other factors,
suggests that now is the time to get some cyclical exposure, says UBS.
European banks could be a candidate, given that they look cheap relative to the market.
But UBS argues it's not as straightforward as that.
"Top down arguments around European macro recovery and rising rates are persuasive but look
played out we think in (banking) stocks most geared to these trends," UBS analysts wrote in a
note.
"If equity markets don't go higher, owning cheaper stocks will have been the righ call," UBS
adds.
(Kit Rees)
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LOOKING FOR AN EXCUSE TO CORRECT? (1115 GMT)
A December survey of 54 institutional investors conducted by Managing Partners Group showed
that slightly over 7 out of 10 expect a global equity correction of over 10 percent within 18
months.
"Equities are looking highly valued on both sides of the Atlantic and it looks as though the
market is just looking for an excuse to correct", Jeremy Leach, CEO of the investment house
commented in the press release presenting the study.
That being said, IG's Chris Beauchamp noted in his morning comments that investors were
quick to buy the dip which emerged during Europe's first trading days:
"Dip buyers clearly know an opportunity when they see one, and with weakness so widespread
across the continent's markets there was an opportunity to pick up some bargains, which at least
makes a nice change from chasing the bull run on Wall Street".
(Julien Ponthus)
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EUROBOOM! (déjà vu) (1048 GMT)
The strong PMI data realeased this morning seems to confirm that the "Euroboom" trade is
here to stay in 2018.
"We continue to believe that the outlook for European equities is positive, aided by the
potential for close to ten percent earnings growth in 2018", JPMorgan AM's Mike Bell commented.
That's in sharp contrast to the likes of SocGen who don't see much "meat on the bone" for
the old continent's stocks.
Actually, thinking about it, the first trading days of the year are starting with a "déjà
vu" feeling with regard to the dynamics of the bulls : global synchronised growth anyone?
To read how the Euro zone economy's posted its best growth in seven years click
And here's a celebratory kiss:
(Julien Ponthus)
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PAY DAY FOR DEBENHAMS SHORTS (1013 GMT)
Yesterday's rise in Next and other retailers sure tested the conviction of investors who
have shorted the likes of Debenhams for months in the hope of a downfall.
With its profit warning triggering a fall of over 16 percent today to its worst price since
the peak of the 2008 financial crisis, Debenhams, which is the second most-shorted stock on the
FTSE, is delivering for speculators.
Note that brokers such as Investec think things could still get worse, with the latter
cutting its target price to 28 pence, below its already depressed level of 29.88 pence.
According to Reuters calculations, Debenhams’ share price fall netted profits of around 12
million pounds on Thursday for hedge funds which have short positions totalling 14.3 percent of
the company's stock.
You can see how much Debenhams has fallen here:
(Julien Ponthus and Alasdair Pal)
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EUROPEAN AUTOS CRUISE TO TWO-MONTH PEAK (0930 GMT)
The European autos sector has had a strong start to the year, up 1.2 percent this
morning at a two-month peak.
Today's move is being driven by yesterday's U.S. auto sales data for December. While not
stellar, the figures did beat analyst expectations, with the likes of Fiat Chrysler up
around 4.1 percent at a record high today.
While the autos sector had a tepid first half in 2017, things have really started to pick
up over the last six months. Fiat, Porsche and Volkswagen are among the
biggest gainers over that period.
(Kit Rees)
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OPENING SNAPSHOT: EUROPEAN SHARES CLIMB, FTSE HITS FRESH RECORD HIGH (0815 GMT)
It's a positive start to the trading session for European equities, with almost all sectors
higher.
Cyclical sectors, such a financials and commodities, are adding the most to gains, and in
turn have pushed Britain's FTSE 100 to a new high.
Away from the STOXX 600, Debenhams is down 20 percent.
Here's your opening snapshot:
(Kit Rees)
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PRE-OPEN ROUNDUP: WHAT'S ON THE RADAR (0746 GMT)
Futures are pointing to a stronger open for European stocks on Thursday after investors’
rising risk appetite drove Asian shares to a 10-year peak and oil prices surged further.
Germany’s exporter-heavy DAX is likely to benefit from the U.S. dollar’s recovery
and continued strength in cyclicals, and services PMIs today which SocGen analysts forecast will
confirm the region’s sustained growth.
One stock to watch will be UK department store Debenhams, indicated down 25 percent after a
profit warning – in stark contrast to Wednesday’s strong update from Next, this will come as a
blow to the British retail sector and likely hobble the previous session’s rally.
In other company news and potential stock movers:
Novartis' Promacta receives FDA breakthrough designation for new indication;
British retailer Debenhams warns on profit after disappointing trading;
Saga restructures travel business after cutting profit forecasts;
Aldi UK's December sales up over 15 pct
(Helen Reid)
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DEBENHAMS TO SPOIL THE XMAS PARTY?
Yesterday the mood around UK retailers was pretty positive after Next reported
better-than-expected Christmas sales. But this doesn't seem to have been the case with small cap
peer Debenhams, which has issued a profit warning.
Traders are calling Debenhams' shares down 25 percent, so it could be payday for those
shorts.
Debenhams' commentary in its Christmas update isn't exactly encouraging: "The early weeks of
the quarter were disappointing as the market remained volatile and competitive."
The retailer said that the first week of the post-Christmas sale was "below expectations".
Debenhams' shares were down nearly 40 percent in 2017:
(Kit Rees)
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FUTURES OPEN HIGHER AS CYCLICAL RALLY SET TO CONTINUE (0709 GMT)
Futures have opened higher across the board with the DAX leading the way as a rally in
cyclicals is set to continue and the dollar's recovery takes the pressure off European exporting
companies.
Here's your snapshot:
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SERVICES PMI TO CONFIRM EURO AREA ECONOMY'S MOMENTUM (0655 GMT)
SocGen analysts see today's PMI data dump on euro area services growth as likely to confirm
the earlier flash estimates, but UK data will continue to weaken slightly, they predict.
Overall they're pretty positive on how risk appetite has fared this first week of the year.
"Risk is 'on', oil and commodity prices are strong, and the dollar is set to weaken further,
albeit not in a straight line," they write.
EUROPEAN SHARES SEEN RISING AFTER ASIAN STOCKS HIT 10-YEAR PEAK (0633 GMT)
Good morning!
Financial spreadbetters see European stocks rising on Thursday, taking their cue from Asian
markets which hit a 10-year peak overnight as strong economic data from the U.S. drove equities
and also helped the dollar recover from its swoon at the start of the week.
London's FTSE is seen opening 13 points higher, flirting ever closer with its recent record
high, Frankfurt's DAX is to open 65 points higher, and Paris' CAC is predicted to rise 25
points.
Likely to support trading once again today is oil as crude prices hit fresh 2 1/2 year highs
with tensions in Iran tightening supply.
(Helen Reid)
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(Reporting by Danilo Masoni, Helen Reid, Kit Rees and Julien Ponthus)