New primary system could shake up politics

Top-two primary

Current system: Candidates from the same party are on a primary election ballot, with the nominee selected by voters registered to that party. Independent voters can also participate in partisan primaries, but must ask for a specific ballot.

New system: State and federal candidates from all parties are on the same ballot, except those running for president. They may choose to list their party preference or not. The secretary of state’s website must include each candidate’s party affiliation for the past 10 years. The top two vote-getters, regardless of party, advance to the general election.

California voters will engage in a new election process next year that does away with traditional political party nominations and replaces them with primaries that could result in two candidates from the same party squaring off in the general election.

In the so-called top-two primary election in June, state and congressional candidates of all parties will appear on the same ballot, allowing all voters to choose nominees without partisan constraints.

The new election system, approved by voters last June, will go into effect after the once-a-decade redrawing of political districts was done for the first time by an independent citizens commission, rather than the politicians themselves.

Proponents say the top-two primary, along with the new districts, will spur competition, help guard against spoiler candidates and potentially lead to more moderate lawmakers being elected. They further hope a new dynamic will emerge to lessen partisan rancor.

But critics contend the new primary will limit choice, drive up the cost of campaigning and spell the end of third-party candidates.

Some analysts point to several past elections that would have ended with different results had the top-two system been in place. But others doubt that overall it will change hard partisan split and gridlock that are seen in both the Legislature and Congress.

Timing of the top-two system and the new maps come amid dramatic changes in how the electorate views candidates, partisan politics and the world, said former state Sen. Steve Peace, who sponsored an initiative after which Proposition 14 was patterned.

“Politics follows society, society doesn’t follow politics. The most important element of Prop. 14 is to change the behavior of candidates and ultimately legislators to more align them with societal norms,” Peace said. “Politicians are driven to the abnormal, the unusual, the small core of base Republicans and base Democrats that control primaries. The open primary system will force politicians to speak to normal people.”

Just how the top-two system will impact races statewide has been a subject of disagreement among political experts. Allan Hoffenblum, publisher of the California Target Book that analyzes state campaigns, said general elections between candidates of the same party are most likely to occur in districts where the minority party makes up 20 percent or less of registered voters, and those without incumbents.

“Under Prop. 14, I think it’s clear that we’re going to have some competitive races,” he said. “But I think there might be more competitive races involving the same party than there are Republican versus Democrat.”

However, in heavily partisan districts, it’s likely that either a Republican or Democrat would have been elected regardless of who made it into the general election, said Jack Pitney, a professor of American politics at Claremont McKenna College.

“In the end, we’re going to end up with a legislature that’s strongly Democratic, and the Democrats will be strongly liberal and the Republicans will be strongly conservative,” he said. “Campaigns will continue to be expensive and the state’s finances will still be a mess.”

Still, some believe that in lopsided districts if, for example, two Democrats advance in a tight election they may be motivated to take more moderate positions to appeal to Republicans. The top-two system also would go far to increase participation among independents, the fastest-growing segment of voters statewide, said Kim Alexander of the nonpartisan California Voter Foundation.

In 1996, California voters replaced the traditional system of closed party nominations with an open primary in which all candidates appeared on the same ballot and the top vote-getters of each party advanced to the general election. That system was ruled unconstitutional by the U.S. Supreme Court.

In February 2009, Proposition 14 was put on the ballot by the Legislature as part of a budget deal and supported by many of the same groups that backed Proposition 11, the redistricting reform measure, including the California Chamber of Commerce and former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.

Proposition 14 was opposed by both the Democratic and Republican parties.

“Prop. 14 was championed and funded by groups that are very politically active and want to have more influence. At the same time it doesn’t necessarily give voters more choices,” said Ron Nehring, former chairman of the state GOP. He predicted a wave of voter frustration in the general election.

“I imagine that there will be some Democrats in heavily Republican areas who are going to be upset when they show up to vote in November and they don’t have a Democrat they can vote for,” he said. “And likewise, there will be some Republicans who show up on Election Day and the only choice they have is to vote for two Democrats.”

There are recent examples in which candidates from the same party may have faced each other in the general election if the top-two system were in place. The three top vote-getters in the Republican primary for the 78th Assembly district all outperformed Democrat Howard Wayne in 1996.

More recently, the June 2010 primary race for the 40th Senate district between fellow Democrats Juan Vargas and Mary Salas might have resulted in a tightly contested rematch in the general election, instead of Vargas defeating a Republican in a landslide.

Peace, who ran Wayne’s primary campaign, said political consultants are making the mistake of examining past elections to predict what may happen.

“The campaign I would have done would have been fundamentally different,” Peace said.

It’s often forgotten that the new system levels the playing field by permitting independent candidates to file under the same rules as everybody else, he said.

“For the first time in history, you’re going to a situation where an independent can actually run in these races and actually have a chance.”