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I have to admit, though, that she does have one advantage over the critics from the euro-sceptic wing of her party and the DUP, in that at least she has tried to be kinda grown up about it without losing her own party. So while it's not much, I do have some sympathy for her as regards to the fact that there is still a complete failure front up to the realities of the situation in much of the Tory party and that sort of makes the job impossible. That said, I'm not sure she's handled it all that well.

She's survived for two reasons, I think. One is that there's no guarantee that toppling her would work. There is a theory out there that no hard Brexiter can win enough votes in the Parliamentary party to replace her.

And the other point is that none of her critics actually has a coherent alternative anyway. They enjoy sniping from the side but they don't have anything serious to say about any of this. So yeah, she deserves some credit for having the bottle to stay in post and face down the 'bastards', to again borrow from John Major.

I will say this - it's now or never for the hard Brexiter group. Remainers might fight another day, but for the others if they don't move now, they won't have another opportunity.

Still very little sign of May being brought down, and I am starting to get a sense of the JRG faction actively trying to persuade people to break ranks... Hint of desperation, rather than last week when they seemed almost certain that it was inevitable.

I find it unbelievably that a member of a party would literally come out and say (basically) 'we're trying our best to get a vote of no confidence in the Prime Minister'. There's so much sickening self interest in the Tory party, there really is.

Very interesting comments from Amber Rudd today, essentially saying that if the current version of the withdrawal agreement gets rejected by parliament, which seems more and more likely, then they would also move to prevent a no deal scenario - essentially she seems to be saying to those who don't like this but want to leave the EU it's either the current deal or not leaving that's on the table.

Part of me would be fascinated to see a second referendum when we actually know what we'd be getting from leaving, but I really don't have the stomach for it. Plus, the proposed three pronged referendum just leaves it open to be a case of 'well a majority wanted to leave but just couldn't agree on how we leave' should we end up with a vote where it's a majority remain but not above 50%, leaving the question open again.

Question is, where does a rejection of this deal by parliament, and a subsequent result of remaining in the EU, leave the Conservative party? I can't see the electorate backing them in an election after this because it's a political shambles whichever way you look at it - the people who wanted to leave will see it as a betrayal, the people who wanted to remain will see that they wanted to leave, and the people who supported them for May will come out seeing her weaker than ever. Another general election would be fascinating - they'll likely be a massive shift to UKIP, who have been astonishingly quiet during all of this, from disaffected leavers. Remainers might stick with the party but could easily shift to an alternative - but whether or not that's Labour seems questionable.

We could literally be in a position where we have an entire generation of hung parliaments going forward, if that wasn't already anticipated.

It's not as if it's all rosy at Labour either at the moment, but the Tories are hugging the headlines for sure.

Honestly, the last thing I want now is a General Election, for the same reason as you: I just can't stomach it. Plus it would probably lead to complete disarray as I can't see either main party getting anywhere near a majority.

A second referendum on Brexit would be a bit more interesting, but I have long given up on that. Fact of the matter is that the original referendum was based on lies (from both sides, must be said) so as punishment the government should probably just go through with Brexit. I was and still am a fierce remainer, but at the same time I just want this to be done so we can begin the usual routine of guessing pint of milk prices again...

Honestly, the last thing I want now is a General Election, for the same reason as you: I just can't stomach it. Plus it would probably lead to complete disarray as I can't see either main party getting anywhere near a majority.

Agreed. The best case scenario for either of the main parties that I can see on recent figures is a) Tories end up only slightly worse off than they are now, but still the biggest party, and b) Labour become the biggest party but still only hold around 300 seats, leading to them needing either SNP support, or trying to muddle through in the hope that the other parties don't actively oppose them.

There was a poll a few days ago that, if replicated would see Labour up to 300, Tories dropping to 267 (still five more than the Labour 'success' in 2017), SNP back up to over 40 (this is the least safe bit of the poll, I think), and the Lib Dems adding 7, bringing them roughly in line with 1992 levels. Oh, and the Greens hold their seat, Plaid down 1 to just 3.

Realistically, though, we live in a country now where since the SNP surge the only party capable of winning a majority are the Conservatives. The same Lab/Tory vote share from 1997 which gave Blair 415+ seats would now leave them with just 340, or a working majority of about 30. And, of course, there's very little sign of them getting that kind of vote share - which is in part dependent on the Tories losing popularity, when they seem to have about 35% of the country locked in at this point. That said, the Conservatives have only won a single majority since 1992 and that was something of a statistical fluke.

The tl;dr of the above is that it's basically a situation that will have to change, and our politics will need to readjust - either to get used to the idea of parties governing without majorities, or through some great realignment that ends the gridlock. Right now the two main parties aren't fit for purpose in the system that we have, and the Lib Dems are too tarnished from their coalition naivety to really challenge them.

Apologies for another double post but the draft of the bill has been agreed. I think it still needs to be signed off both by the EU states and by the UK parliament, so there's no guarantee that it survives. But there is at least a deal there.

Farage's response to this reminds me of Yaxley-Lennon's (I like using his real name, Prime, good call on that) to finding out that the EDL was full of neo-nazis.

Honestly, you build a house full of racists and then you act shocked that the house is also attractive to other racists.

Looks like May is really struggling to get this deal over with both MPs and the public at large. Dominic Raab is now saying that we'd be better off staying in the EU than leaving with this deal, which is quite remarkable given where he lies on the political scale. And meanwhile May is refusing to tie her future to the success or failure of the deal to pass through the Commons, which seems tone deaf (but also like something she needs to say as otherwise people will see voting against her as a way to oust her, I suppose).

It's a weird situation. May can basically afford to lose half a dozen votes. But she's expected to lose around 80 Tories, meaning that even if the DUP flip back and there are a bunch of Labour rebels, it's just got no real chance of success.

What happens next is... difficult, then. I get the feeling most of the house are more inclined towards 'this deal, or remain'. But if the deal gets voted down then the default position is that we leave, with no deal. So quite a lot has to happen in parliament between now and March to change that. And they've only got three weeks after it being voted down to work out what they want to do instead.

So although it looks like it's got no chance you might find people fall in line and vote for it just to avoid the chaos that could follow. And god knows what is going to happen if we do end up in that chaos. Amber Rudd said the other day that they simply aren't going to let a 'no deal' Brexit happen - but it's going to be an absolutely crazy time to avoid it, if this deal fails.

I don't think there's ever quite been a moment in our politics like this.

Also heard Brexiter Andrea Leadsom will back the deal. This is what I expected to happen to some degree, a number of unexpected people will end up siding with the deal. Still unsure about the arithmetic and whether it has a chance of getting through - but it is inevitably going to get closer as the date approaches.

Also heard Brexiter Andrea Leadsom will back the deal. This is what I expected to happen to some degree, a number of unexpected people will end up siding with the deal. Still unsure about the arithmetic and whether it has a chance of getting through - but it is inevitably going to get closer as the date approaches.

I heard the 11th is the key date for all this...

Yeah, but they generally are when there is ambiguity in the future. Though the level of recession being predicted is largely worrying.

Throughout the whole ordeal of Brexit, I was trying to come up with anything positive that has happened. I could only come up with the fact that it has got me a bit more interested in Politics. Not saying I'll be campaigning or start talks, but whereas before I looked at elections very briskly, headlines only, I am now investing time in learning why things are happening the way they are.

The worst-case scenario is basically another 2008, looking at the figures. Perhaps worse, as in the end the economy only contracted by around 5.5% then and there's the possibility of it reaching 8% if the shit hits the fan this time. Only imagine that, coming on the back of eight years of austerity.

Of course all these are only projections. But it's still an absolute nightmare scenario.

You do have to hope in times like this that the one thing it can do is raise people's consciousness of how important these issues are. That's the only good thing that can come out of it, the remembrance that for democracy to work everyone does have to be involved.

Speaking of which.... Electoral Calculus have shifted their prediction, based on the average of recent polls. It's now basically a dead heat between the Tories and Labour, and Labour would get more votes - just not enough to overhaul the inbuilt advantage for Conservatives in our electoral system. So they'd still be a couple of seats behind. But if an election was run tomorrow, there'd be virtually no chance of a majority for anyone. My guess is that you'd have to have a situation where the SNP/Lib Dems indicated they'd support one of the main two parties in the event of a confidence/budget vote.

And I don't see the SNP propping up the Tories like that. Mind, I'm not sure I see either of them doing that for Corbyn either.

Right.... so they are trying to delay the vote. But there's no guarantee they can, because ironically... they have to win a vote to delay the vote.

I mean, just when you think it can't get to be anymore of an omnishambles. There's open talk of a vote of No Confidence. All depend on if Corbyn has the mettle to call for one at the moment, I think.

EDIT: Scratch that - Gov't insisting that they aren't going to put it to a vote, and there is another way of doing it with procedure, though the Speaker has said it would be 'discourteous'. Which is about as strong a word I think I've ever heard the speaker say with regard to the government.

I wouldn't mind betting that if they don't let a vote be held and just 'refuse to move the day's business' in the middle of a debate that they'll be censured again, and possibly held in contempt of parliament again.

So yeah, if you didn't realise it already, we're in the midst of an absolute clusterfuck of a constitutional crisis.

According to the Guardian there are something like 120 MPs who have already said they're backing May in the confidence vote later on. I think she needs 158 - so currently about 40 short. There's 315 in total, and given that there are at least 48 that will be voting against her that must whittle the outstanding number between those that have declared their backing and the total possible to something like 150 or so where the vote is yet to be clear.

If people can be believed, she'll win this reasonably handily. But the fact that it's a secret ballot might mean that some people are saying one thing and will do another. There's already been a tweet to the effect that one government source has said they expect at least five of the senior ministers to vote against tonight, after giving public support. The Tory party have famously been ruthless in getting rid of their leaders.

The interesting thing is that a lot of the CPP actually seem to want the ERG to get a kicking out of this. It's a real civil war in their party at the moment. Ken Clarke of all people got huge cheers from his own benches for saying that there was nothing more unhelpful than a leadership challenge at this point in time - this moment of 'grave national crisis', as he called it.

You can tell what business thinks, though. Every time there's something broadly pro-May emerging, like that she'll stay to fight on, or that people come out in support of her, the pound rebounds a little bit.

I don't think that nugget about the pound rebounding when the pro-May news comes out - you'd have to say that if she doesn't stay as leader and PM, that's a win for the right wing of the party. And one of those nuts in charge kills any hope of a reasonable deal being agreed.

Yeah, it's partly just uncertainty but given business is actively hostile towards the idea of a harder Brexit that has to have something to do with it.

I don't think there are many people who want a JRM or Boris in charge in the Tory party, to be honest. The question is, how many will back May to stop that from happening, or do people think they can replace her and get someone they'd prefer in place? The last is a hell of a gamble but I could see a few of them trying to go for it.

Apologies for what has been a long line of double posts but I've just seen a Conservative unwilling to be on TV at the same time as a member of his own party on TV because he is on the other side of this issue.

I honestly think they literally hate each other more than they hate the opposition right now. It's extraordinary. I genuinely don't think I've ever seen anything like it.

OK, so here's some non-Brexit news. The UK deficit went up by £12bn at a stroke today.

It's not like they've spent more, but there's been a ruling on how student debt is to be calculated. Money that isn't expected to be paid back for whatever reason now has to be categorised as 'public spending', because inevitably it's going to come from the government.

Now that they can't hide that away in the numbers anymore, boom, the black hole at the heart of HE spending is apparent.

It's been taken as an incentive to lower tuition fees at University, so that at the very least the government would have to pay back less - though obviously, that only goes so far because most uni's are public anyway.

But yeah, at the very least the true scale of UK finances is much easier to discern now than it was a few days ago.