Climate change report is a “wake-up” call on 1.5°C warming

A landmark report on climate change is a wake-up call about
both the huge challenges and the benefits of limiting global
warming to 1.5° Celsius in view of the escalating threats
from rising temperatures the World Meteorological
Organization (WMO) said today.

Limiting warming to 1.5ºC would
require an unprecedented response, according to the
report’s Summary for Policy Makers, which was adopted at
meeting in Incheon, the Republic of Korea, on 6 October.

The report said that net zero emissions of carbon
dioxide must reach zero by 2050.At the current rate of
emissions, the world will reach 1.5°C warming by between
2030 and 2052.

"This Special Report demonstrates,
with great scientific authority, the need for far-reaching
and immediate reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. The
global average temperature is already more than 1°C higher
than the pre-industrial era. Arctic sea is shrinking and
sea level rise is accelerating. We are suffering more
extreme weather. Every fraction of a degree in temperature
rise makes a difference,” said WMO Secretary-General
Professor Petteri Taalas.

WMO and the UN Environment
Programme co-sponsor the Nobel-prize winning IPCC, which was
asked to prepare the report when governments adopted the
Paris Agreement to combat climate change. The Paris
Agreement sets a long-term goal of holding the increase in
the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above
pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the
temperature increase to 1.5 °C.

The report highlighted a
number of impacts which could be limited by lower
temperature increases.

For instance, by 2100, global
sea level rise may be 26 to 77 cm higher than the 1986-2005
baseline under a 1.5°C temperature increase, or about 10 cm
lower than for a global warming of 2°C. This would mean
that up to 10 million fewer people would be exposed to
related impacts such as saltwater intrusion, flooding and
damage to infrastructure.

Limiting global warming
would limit the increases in ocean temperature and acidity
and decreases in ocean oxygen levels and so would reduce
risks to marine biodiversity, fisheries, and ecosystems. But
even with a temperature increase of 1.5°C, coral reefs are
expected to decline by 70-90 percent, whereas more than 99
percent would be lost with 2ºC.

Depending on future
socioeconomic conditions, limiting global warming to 1.5°C,
compared to 2°C, might reduce the proportion of the world
population exposed to a climate change induced increase in
water scarcity by up to 50%, the report said.

“Climate change adaptation is no longer an option, it
is a necessity. This report makes it clear that the longer
we delay, the more difficult and costly it will be. WMO is
intensifying efforts to further strengthen early warning
systems to protect lives in the face of more extreme events.
Improved climate services are helping to increase resilience
in our food and health systems, urban and coastal planning,
energy and infrastructure and water management,” said
Professor Taalas.

The report finds global emissions
of carbon dioxide (CO2) would need to fall by at least 35%
from 2010 levels by 2030, reaching ‘net zero’ around
2050. This means that any remaining emissions would need to
be balanced by removing CO2 from the atmosphere. The
effectiveness of such techniques is unproven at large scale
and some may carry significant risks for sustainable
development, the report notes.

"This report is a
further incentive for WMO to intensify its scientific
support for climate change mitigation and adaptation through
a new strategy entailing fully integrated, “seamless”
Earth-system approach to weather, climate and water
domains,” said WMO Chief Scientist, Professor Pavel
Kabat.

“Over last two decades, climate science has
made unprecedented progress in better understanding of the
functioning of the climate system and in assessing
consequences of human interference. Now, more than ever
before, we need science to support adaptation to climate
extremes and climate change, and to help to guide
transformations needed for sustainable development of the
planet,” he said.

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