Over the last few years, the Memphis Grizzlies have been a pretty predictable team. Typically, they start slowly (3-6 last season, 4-9 the year before), lose a major player to an injury (Zach Randolph last year, Rudy Gay before him), rally once the spring comes around and go into the playoffs as a wild-card bunch, as capable of a monster upset (beating top-seeded San Antonio in 2011) as they are of an epic bungling (losing to the Clippers last spring).

So it’s tough to figure what to make of this season’s Grizzlies, having survived the first month without a major injury and, in the process, turned their usual pattern on its head with a league-best start.

There are reasons to doubt these Grizzlies. They played 10 of their first 16 games at home, and in the early going, had just two back-to-backs. That is a favorable schedule, and at this time of the year, that can ensure a good start. The Grizzlies just came off a five-game home stand, which coach Lionel Hollins summed up by pointing out, “We won. Four out of five.”

Indeed, the Grizzlies might have had a home-heavy schedule, but they’ve handled it in just the way Hollins had hoped—by winning. With that, there is far more evidence on hand that this team will be able to maintain its status as a legitimate contender in the West throughout the year.

They have played some pretty good teams, managing wins over the Heat, Thunder, Knicks and Lakers. And their losses have been pretty easy to stomach—they lost to the Clippers on the road in the opener, at home to Denver and dropped an overtime game Sunday against the controversially well-rested Spurs, the second game of a back-to-back.

This group is undeniably better than previous versions of the Grizzlies. One thing that Hollins has established is that, with big men Randolph and Marc Gasol on the floor, the Grizzlies should be among the most physical teams in the league. They’ve done just that.

Two years ago, they ranked 13th in points allowed (97.6 per game) and ninth in defensive rating (points allowed per 100 possessions). Last year, that was bumped up to fifth in points (93.0) and seventh in defensive rating. This year, the Grizzlies came out of their first 15 games leading the league in points allowed and defensive rating.

We know that the Grizzlies can stop opponents. But what has developed this year is a much smoother offense to support that defense.

“That is probably what stands out the most,” one Western Conference scout said. “They move the ball so much better than they used to, when they would usually dump it to Rudy Gay or Randolph or Gasol and just let them work out of iso’s. Now they are creating more open looks, especially at the 3-point line. If they can make those shots, even if they’re just a little above average, that is going to make them a pretty good offensive team. If they can be pretty good offensively, with the way they defend, they will establish consistency.”

The 3-point shooting has been a huge boost, particularly from Gay, point guard Mike Conley and reserve forward Quincy Pondexter. They have the Grizzlies in the Top 10 from the arc, making 37.0 percent on the year. That’s almost unthinkable considering they were 25th last year (32.6 percent) and 27th the year before (33.4).

That might not be a sustainable number, especially as the Grizzlies go out on the road and play more back-to-backs. But again, they don’t need to be a Top-10 shooting team in order to succeed—they just need to be pretty good.

Going back to last March, when Memphis was 25-21 and in danger of missing the playoffs, the Grizzlies have been the best team in the NBA, winning 28 of 35 regular-season games.

The playoff series against the Clippers—including the incredible Game 1 loss that featured a blown 24-point fourth-quarter lead—showed that this is still a tough team to read, but the core of Conley, Gay, Randolph and Gasol has been together four years now, and if they’re ever going to have a collective breakthrough, it will have to happen now.

Their fast start could be a fluke, but there is plenty of evidence in the numbers suggesting they will have staying power.