For all of those who felt I was too bearish on the Euro region in 2009 and 2010, thus far nearly every proclamation that I have made has come to light or shown a direct path to doing so. I believe I was unequivocally clear in my assertion that Greece will default at least a year or so ago (even if said default would be marketed by some other name for the sake of political expediency). I would consider this a must read for anyone in the mainstream media reporting on this topic, or any investor/stakeholder who may fear the Grecian domino effect, even if you feel you have seen some aspects of it before.

Well, now its time to call Greece out on its perversely circular reasoning being used to justify its alleged stance that it will not default. I read a humorously crafted ZeroHedge article this morning which immediately cause the following image to pop into mind…

For more on the origin of said circle, I first refer you to an article ran yesterday in Bloomberg:

Greece’s credit rating was cut three levels by Fitch Ratings, which said that even a voluntary extension of its bond maturities being studied by European Union policy makers would be considered a default.

Fitch cut its rating to B+, four levels below investment grade, from BB+ and said that the country could face a further reduction in its creditworthiness. The yield on Greek 10-year bonds rose 57 basis points to 16.6 percent, more than twice the level of a year ago when Greece accepted an EU-led bailout.

“The rating downgrade reflects the scale of the challenge facing Greece in implementing a radical fiscal and structural reform program necessary to secure solvency of the state and the foundations for sustained economic recovery, Fitch said in an e- mailed statement.

… “The B+ rating incorporates Fitch’s expectation that substantial new money will be provided to Greece by the EU and IMF and that Greek sovereign bonds will not be subject to a ‘soft restructuring’ or ‘re-profiling’ that would trigger a ’credit event’ and default rating,” Fitch said.

… “An extension of the maturity of existing bonds would be considered by Fitch to be a default event and Greece and its obligations would be rated accordingly,” Fitch said.

Even if Fitch or other rating companies determined that extending maturities constituted a default, the ruling wouldn’t necessarily trigger credit swaps insuring Greek debt. That decision may be made by the determinations committee of the International Swaps & Derivatives Association.

Yeah, Okay! I guess then maybe when they default it won’t really happen?

The country missed its target for last year, reporting a shortfall of 10.5 percent of gross domestic product, versus a goal of 9.4 percent.

Let’s take a visual perusal of what I am talking about, focusing on those sovereign nations that I have covered thus far.

Notice how dramatically off the market the IMF has been, skewered HEAVILY to the optimistic side. Now, notice how aggressively the IMF has downwardly revsied their forecasts to still end up widlly optimistic.

Ever since the beginning of this crisis, IMF estimates of government balance have been just as bad…

The EU/EC has proven to be no better, and if anything is arguably worse!

Think about it! With a .5% revisions, the EC was still 3 full points to the optimistic side on GDP, that puts the possibility of Greek government forecasts, which are much more optimistic than both the EU and the slightly more stringent but still mostly erroneous IMF numbers, being anywhere near realistic somewhere between zero and no way in hell (tartarus, hades, purgatory…).

Now, if the Greek government’s macroeconomic assumptions are overstated when compared with EU estimates, and the EU estimates are overstated when compared to the IMF estimates, and the IMF estimates are overstated when compared to reality…. Just who the hell can you trust these days??? Never fear, Reggie’s here. Download our “unbiased, non-captured, empirically driven” forecast of the REAL Greek economy – (subscribers only, click here to subscribe) Greece Public Finances Projections 2010-03-15 11:33:27 694.35 Kb. Related banking research can be downloaded here:

The Greek government will proceed with the acceleration of the privatization of state property and companies, setting a target of at least €15bn by 2015. [Reference the highlights of the BoomBustBlog subscription document below.]The decisions are expected during the week, probably on Wednesday, at the meeting of the Biministerial Committee on Privatization. The government will finalize a list of companies and property for utilization, which will be presented by Prime Minister George Papandreou to the European leaders in Brussels.Special Secretary for Privatization G. Christodoulakis and bank representatives have been preparing the content of the list at a meeting yesterday.National Bank and London-based CC&C Advisors LTD have been assigned the task of financial servicing related to planning, monitoring, coordination and implementation of the restructuring and privatization program.The Committee will have to approve the award of the of the utilization program to the qualified Greek banks, but also to the consultants who will carry each project.

Sources note that consultants for Athens International Airport have already appointed, while the proposed list includes:• The concession of ports and airports with long-term contracts• The extension of concession period for Athens International Airport• The sale of a stake of Public Gas Corporation• The sale of a 49% stake of Casino Mont Parnes• The privatization of state lotteries through concessions• Finding a strategic investor in Hellenic Post• The sale of a stake of OTE, Hellenic Defense Systems and Larko• Renewal of OPAP’s licenses• Licenses for online betting and “slots”• The concession of Egnatia Odos• The sale of TRAINOSE• The sale of state stakes in banks (Hellenic Postbank, ATEbank, Consignment and Loans Fund)• The privatization of water supply companies (EYDAP, EYATH)

Little different than the circular reasoning of all modern governments and economies, which reminds me of a phrase that occured to me the other night:

"three-dimensional Euclidean econometric masturbation"

I won't throw in any famous economists names because it takes more than two to engage in such high horsepower wheel spinning that the PhD's and TPTB are engaged in. They arrive at their own conclusions.

We have reached the point where theory, policy, and binary machinations swing reality about their head on the end of a rope; rather than the other way around.

They should hang the ECB barons and the political bosses, as the TBTF banks, from the branches of the same tree...after due diligence and trial for gross negligence and collusion...obviously...Not that the future will be any rosier... but it does no harm to prune the rotten branches.

Or is it? As Jefferson said, democracy is pointless without and educated and informed people, and that's what happened to the Western world. The elites took control of the brains before anything else. Thus it is not through fully conscious choices that peoples elect morons and slavemasters to power, but through ignorance and propaganda.