AFAP manages the Australian-Pacific Centre for Emergency and Disaster Information (APCEDI) to provide news on natural disaster events in the Asia-Pacific region and to help with rapid disaster response assessment. This was originally a communications network that was activated during a disaster to disseminate information to our Asia-Pacific NGO offices. Now APCEDI has a much wider application across the Asia-Pacific Region.

Monday, February 28, 2005

Powerful Category 3 Cyclone Percy has caused widespread, heavy property damage on both Pukapuka (population 600) and Nassau (population 70) with the majority of houses on both islands being damaged, many severely. APCEDI continues to be in contact with Chief Inspector John Tini in the Cooks Emergency Center based in Rarotonga. He reported that they were able to re-establish communication with Pukapuka about 5:00 PM local time. While the damage is widespread, there are no injuries, and everyone is reported safe and well.

In Nassau the 70 residents were evacuated to the 2 main churches (Catholic and Cooks Islands Christian) which are serving as Cyclone Shelters. Chief Inspector Tini also reported that Ham Radio contact continues with the island, and they are likewise reporting widespread damage but everyone is safe and well.

It is a great testament to the Cook Islands and their preparedness systems that they have weathered 4 cyclones in as many weeks without 1 serious injury or casualty.

Chief Inspector Tini notes that the Royal New Zealand Air Force Hercules had landed at Rarotonga at about 4:00 PM local time this afternoon, and they were discussing the priorities for the plane's next mission.

Percy has now begun its long anticipated turn and is moving southeast at 8-10 kt. Percy is still forecast to make a more southerly turn sometime in the next 12 hours. Now that the turn has begun, the situation for Rakahanga and Manihiki Island to the east of Pukapuka is improved. Manihiki Island was the location of the 1997 tragedy with Cyclone Martin where 19 people died. Authorities on both Rakahanga and Manihiki should be continue on alert. To the southeast on the island of Suwarrow, the two caretakers, who were the only people on the island, have been evacuated to Rarotonga since Cyclone Meena, and so no people are currently on the island.

Cyclone Percy is about 75 miles eastsoutheast of Pukapuka and about 65 miles southsouthwest of Nassau. Percy has peaked in intensity, but is still a major Category 3 strength Cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. FMS, JTWC and NOAA are all forecasting a gradual weakening trend as it moved south some.

The Fiji Meteorological Service has now raised a Tropical Cyclone Alert for the Southern Cooks. So authorities in the Southern Cooks starting with Palmerston Atoll should now begin to take preparedness measures as the storm's progress warrants. Authorities in Niue and American Samoa should likewise continue on alert should a more unexpected southwesterly change occur later tonight.

Yesterday, the cyclone passed to the northeast of Swain's Island (population 5-20). All efforts to contact Swain's continue to be unsuccessful, but Dawn Alailima, Commander of the American Samoa Emergency Operations Command is reporting that a DC-130 plane from Honolulu will overfly the island tomorrow morning and undertake a food and medical drop. So APCEDI will report on the outcome of this trip. Hopefully the brave Swain Islanders will be found hale and hearty if not a bit wet and hungry.

The day before, Percy caused widespread damage and 1 injury on Tokelau's 3 atolls Atafu (population 500-600), Nukunonu (population 400-450) and Fakaofo (population 500), yesterday. Mr Tino Vitale, General Manager of Telecommunications for Tokelau in Nukunonu reports that a boat will leave for Fakaofo tomorrow with supplies. The Doctor will be on the boat to attend to the serious leg injury reported earlier from the atoll.

Authorities in American Samoa continue to maintain advisories and watches, and should be very vigilant in case Percy takes an unexpected early turn toward the south or west. Authorities on the Manu'a Islands of American Samoa should be particularly vigilant due to the high level of damage and debris from Cyclone Olaf last week.

Authorities in Tuvalu, Tokelau, Samoa, American Samoa, Wallis and Futuna, Cook Islands, Niue, Tonga and French Polynesia should continue to monitor this storm carefully. Due to damage of Cyclones Olaf, Nancy and Meena in this part of the Pacific, some island areas previously impacted will be more vulnerable. Disasters planners should make sure to take such increased vulnerability into account should it become necessary to implement preparedness activities.

A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE NORTHERN COOKS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [945 HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0 DEGREES SOUTH 165.4 DEGREES WEST OR ABOUT 74 MILES SOUTHSOUTHEAST OF PUKAPUKA OR ABOUT 152 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SUWARROW AT AT 280600 UTC. MAXIMUM 10 MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 85 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 120 KNOTS AND WEAKENING GRADUALLY. PERCY IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 08 KNOTS AND EXPECTED TO TURN FURTHER TOWARDS THE SOUTH.

ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LIE AROUND 117 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PUKAPUKA OR 123 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF SUWARROW BY 281200 UTC AND ABOUT 148 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PUKAPUKA OR ABOUT 114 MILES WEST OF SUWARROW BY 281800 UTC.

FOR REST OF THE NORTHERN COOKS: WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS, GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS AT TIMES. FURTHER RAIN HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SQUALLY THUNDERSTORMS. ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS. MODERATE TO HEAVY NORTHWEST SWELLS.

The next Special Weather Bulletin for the Northern Cook Islands ON TC PERCY will be issued at 280900 UTC or earlier.______

Special Weather Bulletin Number TWO for Southern Cooks ON TC PERCY issued from RSMC NADI Feb 28/0336 UTC 2005 UTC.Correction to next issue time...

TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT

A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS NOW IN FORCE FOR THE SOUTHERN COOK ISLANDS.

A STRONG WIND WARNING IS NOW IN FORCE FOR PALMERSTON.

TROPICAL CYCLONE PERCY CENTRE [945HPA] WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7S 165.4W OR ABOUT 405 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PALMERSTON AT 280300 UTC. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 85 KNOTS WITH MOMENTARY GUSTS TO 120 KNOTS AND WEAKENING GRADUALLY. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 08 KNOTS AND TURNING FURTHER TOWARDS THE SOUTH.

ON THIS FORECAST TRACK, THE CYCLONE MAY BRING DAMAGING GALE FORCE WINDS OR STRONGER OVER PALMERSTON ISLAND AND POSSIBLY OTHER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN COOKS IN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.

The next Special Weather Bulletin for the Southern Cook Islands will be issued around 280900 UTC or earlier.

Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson ScaleWinds 111-130 mph (96-113 knots or 178-209 km/hr) - Storm surge generally 9-12 ft above normal. Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings with a minor amount of curtainwall failures. Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off trees and large tress blown down. Mobile homes and poorly constructed signs are destroyed. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the hurricane center. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by battering of floating debris. Terrain continuously lower than 5 ft above mean sea level may be flooded inland 8 miles (13 km) or more. Evacuation of low-lying residences with several blocks of the shoreline may be required.

APCEDI

APCEDI is a service of AFAP
- the Australian Foundation for the Peoples of Asia and the Pacific and FSPI
- the Foundation for the Peoples of the South Pacific International.

Disclaimer: This service provides indicative alert information
and should only be construed in conjunction with other sources of information
such as local and regional weather services. Reports are as accurate as possible,
but as the information is indicative, external confirmation should be sought.