Thursday, April 24, 2008

Time for another weekly MLB Blog Poll. This week, we evaluated the MVP, CY Young, and Rookie of the Year candidates in the AL (if the season were to end today). You can find the entire results at Baseball Happenings or directly here.

Our voting for this week is below; one item to note, we're looking like geniuses for picking Ellsbury for Rookie of the Year - he's had an incredible past week (in 27 AB, he's hitting .370 with 11 R, 2 HR, 4 RBI, and 6 SB!), and now appears fully entrenched in the CF job for Boston. Crisp will get some playing time now & again, but there is no denying Ellsbury talent & ability to be an every day player in the majors.

1) Cliff Lee - Proving he can pitch great against more than just the Oakland's lineup. After two wins against the A's to start the year, he threw his second 2 hitter on Friday, this time against the Twins. The league is hitting only .111 against him.

2) Felix Hernandez - Impressive thus far

3) Ervin Santana - Has pitched well on the road so far (shocking), and continues to pitch great at home (expected).

AL Rookie of the Year:

1) Jacoby Ellsbury - This race is bound to heat up now that Longoria is up in the majors to stay, but Ellsbury has played well so far this year. He's showing a great eye at the plate (12 BB's to only 4 K's), and is running with success on the basepaths (6 SB).

2) Nick Blackburn - Been a solid addition to the Twins rotation

3) Evan Longoria - He's in the majors to stay, and has shown a solid eye at the plate so far.

Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Today I bring you part two of our weekly Prospect Watch series, this time focusing on some of the top pitching prospects in the minors.

What's Interesting:-Kershaw continues to pitch well, although he still doesn't have a win on the season-Homer Bailey has been pitching extremely well, showing good control although not striking out as many as he has in the past; has he finally matured as a pitcher?-David Price has yet to pitch in a game this season, although he is starting to throw bullpen sessions-Max Scherzer - Wow. That's really all there is to say. His performance thus far in this young season compares well with some of the best minor league pitching numbers we've seen in recent years, including those from Tim Lincecum, Cole Hamels, and Francisco Liriano. Will he be in the majors soon? If so, will his success continue (like those mentioned)? Only time will tell, but stay tuned.

Yahoo has posted their 2008 season-to-date sabermetric stats, updating the 2007 season ending totals which you can view here. This includes many sabermetric stats for MLB hitters & pitchers thus far this season.

This is good stuff, and if you're a stat geek (like me), it will keep you busy for quite some time looking through the details to try to figure out if a player who has started the year hot or cold will keep it up at his current pace.

Sunday, April 20, 2008

This is the second edition of our Prospect Watch. This gives you an idea of how some of the top hitting prospects in the minors are doing so far this season.

What's Interesting:-Longoria was already called up by the Rays & signed to a long term deal (amazing how much can change in a week!)-Heyward already has 7 steals on the season & hasn't been caught yet-Rasmus is off to a rough start-Maybin has cooled off some from his fast start, and has an alarming 25 K's in only 54 official plate appearances

Thursday, April 17, 2008

Roto Advice is privileged to be taking part in a weekly blog poll, thought up by David at Baseball Happenings. Each week, 27 blog writers each select the MVP, CY Young, and Rookie of the year winners if the season were to end today. We alternate on what league we vote on each week, and this week it was the NL's turn.

You can find the actual voting results here, but below is what we submitted as our NL picks for the week. We'll continue to post our selections each week after the votes are tallied & published at Baseball Happenings.

NL MVP:

1) Hanley Ramirez - HanRam is already on a 10 game hitting streak, he's hitting over .400, he's 2nd in the NL in runs, he's shown power & speed, and he's doing all of this without his cleanup hitter from the past few years, Miguel Cabrera.

2) Albert Pujols - After all of the fear in spring training, he's proven to be just as good as ever. Not only is he hitting close to .400 with a few HR & steals, but he also has 12 BB's to only 4 K's on the year...and an awesome 1.200 + OPS.

3) Justin Upton - Even though I drafted him in some fantasy leagues this year, I can honestly say I didn't expect this type of performance this fast (although I won't complain). He's putting up star numbers, and just think, he hasn't even tried a stolen base yet (he attempted 7 & was successful on 4 of them in spring training). The best is yet to come.

NL CY Young:

1) Ben Sheets - Sheets is healthy, and as he's shown in the past, he can produce big time when healthy.

2) Cole Hamels - He continues to show that he's going to be a dominating force in this league for a long time.

3) Jake Peavy - I'm going to have to pick Peavy over Webb here, although they are very close at this point. Peavy has picked up right where he left off last season, proving that his performance in 2006 was just a mirage. The scariest part is he's still only 26!

NL Rookie of the Year:

1) Johnny Cueto - How can you argue with 18 K's & 0 walks in his first 13 + innings pitched? He's shown poise, confidence, and most importantly, nasty stuff.

2) Kosuke Fukudome - All he's doing is hitting.

3) Jair Jurrjens - Deciding between Kuroda & Jurrjens was tough, and even though Kuroda has put up slightly better numbers on the year thus far, I'm going to use my regional bias here & pick Jurrjens. I've watched Jurrjens pitch, and he's the real deal. He's not trying to strike every batter out, but he's got a great makeup & he'll be an excellent pitcher for the Braves. Interesting note - he is currently the 7th youngest player in the majors right now (at 22).

Please feel free to supply any comments or feedback on our selections. Thanks!

Tuesday, April 15, 2008

It's official - Joe Borowski was just placed on the 15 day DL with what the club is calling "a strained triceps" (grammatically, shouldn't that be a "strained tricep"? whatever). He's been mostly ineffective this year, so hopefully it was the injury that lead to this ineffectiveness (and not his general mediocrity).

But realistically, he's 36 & has been a so-so closer for a number of years now. Now might not be a bad time for the Indians to go to a new, full time closer. Below is ESPN's take:

"This will open the door for Rafael Betancourt's long-awaited ascension to ninth-inning duties. Betancourt is merely the leading candidate among a handful of potential bullpen aces, including Rafael Perez and Jensen Lewis. However, Betancourt certainly deserves the first opportunity. During a 2007 that was one of the best seasons ever for a setup man, his strikeout-to-walk ratio was almost nine, an inhuman figure that more than supported his 1.47 ERA and 0.76 WHIP."

Time will tell who gets the ball first, but our money is on Betancourt (who had the lowest ERA in the majors last year for any pitcher with 75 + IP). Ironically, in last night's game against the Red Sox, the ESPN announcers pointed out during the 7th inning (when Betancourt was getting out of a jam by striking out Big Papi & Manny) that Betancourt has the demeanor of a closer - specifically that he was very slow & decisive with his prep before his windup (which I guess can intimidate batters), and he has a quirky Mariano Rivera-type leg wiggle just before he comes set.

Fantasy Spin:Betancourt should succeed while Borowski is out, and keep the job the remainder of the year (I'd say there is a 75% likelihood of this). This also increases the value of Rafael Perez & my dark horse candidate for saves, Masa Kobayashi, who saved something like a billion games while playing in Japan.

By the way, Greener on the Other side is betting on Kobayashi, but they do seem to have an unusual interest in the Japanese pitcher (check out their blog's URL:)). For the time being, trust me & go with Betancourt.

Some useful news from the baseball blogosphere for April 15th (Tax Day - speaking of which, think of how nice it'd be if we didn't have to go through this process each year...just a thought):

-After another great game from Zack Greinke, and as Greener on the Other Side points, Greinke's Good; and while we're on the Greinke topic, Roto Authority has some great advice on keeping up with your lineups: Don't Be Dumb (pretty self explanatory, isn't it?)

-Seamless Baseball gives us their Stock Watch, looking at the current market value of some big name players, including Sabathia, Bedard, Kemp, and others

-Razzball talks about Buying David Ortiz (and others). One situation mentioned here that you should especially keep an eye on is the Indians closer situation - Borowski blew another one last night, and the Tribe has a handful of competent guys waiting in the wings, including Rafael Betancourt(UPDATE - Borowski is on the DL)

-Baseball Happenings has posted the results of their week MLB Blog Poll for Week 2 - This week we voted on the NL MVP, CY Young, and Rookie of the year. I'll discuss my selections for the week (along with my AL votes in week 1) in an upcoming post

Friday, April 11, 2008

It's not always an easy decision to drop a player from your team, especially if he was someone you hand selected in the draft. But as a season goes on, there are any number of reasons you might make moves:

-One or more of your players just aren't performing as expected

-You have an obvious weakness, and you want to drop a bench player to fill a need on your roster

-A quality player is available on the waiver wire who is more valuable than one or more members of your roster

-You just want to shake things up

-A defensive measure or if you think the pickup will have trade value in your league (steals guys are a good example of this - you might not need speed, but picking up Carlos Gomez of the Twins would give you a valuable trade asset to offer to other managers who are lacking steals)

The biggest challenge, especially this early in the season, is knowing when to pull the trigger on guys who are off to fast starts. I'll look at a few of these guys below, and I'll analyze why the move either makes sense or was short sighted.

This was more a move of picking up players that were better than those already on my roster than a move of desperation. Let's start by looking at the guys who were dropped, beginning with Jair Jurrjens. Jair actually has had a very solid start to the year in the Braves rotation. He's gone 5+ & 7 innings in his first two starts, and he has proven that he belongs in the major leagues, even at the ripe age of 22. I like the fact that Jurrjens is throwing the ball to the bat & relying on his defense to get outs; even though he has the stuff for a high K rate, I don't think we'll see it this year (think Verlander's K rate increase from his first season to his next - I wouldn't be shocked to see the same thing from Jurrjens next yet). Even given the pros, I think the three pitchers picked up have the potential to have better fantasy seasons this year (more on them later).

Ian Kennedy is in the Yankees rotation, and has shown excellent control in his career (he's not an overpowering pitcher like Joba, but he can regularly break 90 mph with his fastball). He's had a rough start to the season, and with Joba waiting in the wings, I'm unsure if Kennedy will hold on to his starting gig all season.

Jeremy Hermida is back from his stint on the DL to start the year. After an incredibly solid sophomore campaign last year, he's likely going to build on that to have a very 2008. He was simply a victim of the numbers, being dropped because this league only starts 3 OF (and 1 utility), and my team already includes:

Obviously, there is not enough room for all of them. I'm not saying that the above guys will all outproduce Hermida this season, but given Ellsbury & Gomez's steals potential, and Kemp's all around game, I was willing to part with Jeremy to gain some pitching depth. Now, if Hermida gets back to the speed on the basepaths that he showed as a minor league prospect & ends up going 20-20, this will look stupid; but it's only a 10 team league & with the existing OF depth, this move made sense.

Analyzing the Player Pickups:

Now, on to the additions. Clay Buchholz only has one start on the year, but he's going to be a special player in the league (which is obvious seeing how he dominating the minors & already has a no hitter on his major league resume). I value him greater than Kennedy, so this move was an opportunity to increase the talent on my roster while giving me more upside.

Jake Westbrook is another unspectacular pitcher in the Jurrjens mold (meaning he won't K 10 guys a game on regular basis), but I think he'll have a better all around season. He dominated in spring training, and he's been lights out his first two starts of the year. He added a nasty change up that has proven to be a very effective out pitch; don't be surprised if this leads to an increase in his K rate (which has always been below average). He will be an innings eater, and should easily get 13-16 wins this season, especially if he keeps pitching the way he has thus far this year. Grab him now if he's available; I predict that after one more solid start it will be too late.

And finally, Dana Eveland is being added to the rotation to fill in for an injured Rich Harden. Eveland was a very good minor league prospect who has excelled in his first two starts this season (although he stunk last year). I don't think his performance has been a fluke; he had an solid minor league track record, and he's shown poise & talent this season. David Chase over at Brock for Broglio gives a nice little summary comparing Eveland to the wonder-stud of the year so far, Johnny Cueto. As he states:

"For those who missed out on Johnny Cueto, Eveland is a fine alternative. It wouldn’t surprise me one bit, if Eveland ends up out producing Cueto this season."

Since David really knows his stuff, I wouldn't completely ignore the advice. Keep an eye on Eveland as the season progresses, but he's young & still has upside, so if he's available, I would look to grab him now (especially if you have any of the above "dropped" pitchers to waive).

You might also want to check out Tim Dierkes' take on Eveland (from the excellent Roto Authority); Tim proposes taking a little more cautious approach with Eveland, although he admits that by the time Dana proves himself to be the real deal (assuming he does), he'll be long gone from the wire.

In summary, my opinion is that Buchholz / Eveland / Westbrook are all > Jurrjens / Kennedy at this point. I would agree with picking up any of those pitchers in place of Jair & Ian (although they will both be very good pros as well). Of these, I'm most on the fence about the Eveland > Jurrjens projection, but I'm going to stick with it for now & deal with the consequences later; if it ends up blowing up in my face, then you can all post rude comments & call me names.

I'll have some more waiver wire analysis in the upcoming days, including a review of a move to pick up Edwin Jackson along with looking at some other drops & adds that I've seen that I wouldn't suggest making this early in the season (like dropping Matt Kemp).

So, our first baseball poll of the season focused on 4 OF prospects. OK, I'll admit that you really can't call Fukudome a "prospect", but he is technically a rookie, and it's always difficult to predict how foreign players with a track record of success overseas will produce in the majors.

Let's start with Maybin - obviously he's now in AA, although he's hitting the crap out of the ball. He is certainly the CF of the future for the Marlins (maybe as soon as this season), but he won't get enough time in the majors this season to outproduce the other guys on this list.

Adam Jones, the jewel of the Eric Bedard trade, is the current starting CF for the Orioles. His talent made the team say goodbye to the talented but inconsistent Corey Patterson (who is doing quite well for the Reds thus far). Jones still hasn't shown consistent power yet in the majors, but he hit 25 HR last season in AAA (in only 420 AB) at the tender age of 21, so be patient. He will likely put up double digit steals this season, to go along with about 10-15 HR. Watch out for a big season from him in 2-3 years.

Justin Upton of the Diamondbacks is off to a huge start in 2008; hitting near .400 with 3 HR already. He is currently the youngest player in the majors, more than one year younger than the second youngest, Phil Hughes. He is immensely talented, and some would argue that he has more potential & upside than his older brother (who is already a star), BJ Upton. Be aware that he'll have ups and downs this season, but the RF spot is all his, and he's a stud who has the potential to have an incredible career. I don't think a 25-25 season this year is out of the question, but I'm going to stay conservative & predict 21 HR & 25 Steals.

And now we come to Fukudome, the 30 year old rookie from Japan. He has started on fire for the Cubs this season, putting up a line of .371 Avg/1 HR/6 RBI/2 SB. He's hitting in the heart of the Cubs lineup, and he's showing a great eye at the plate along with some consistency early on. I still can't say he'll outproduce Upton this season, but Kosuke should have a solid year & he likely won't hurt you anywhere. Keep in mind (especially if you're in a keeper league) that Upton's upside is much higher, even if Fukudome ends up outproducing him this season.

Thanks again for your participation in our first poll of the year! The newest poll is now posted (to the right); What pitcher will end up having the most productive season?

-Dice K-Ben Sheets-Rich Harden-Johnny Cueto

These guys all have their question marks, but I'm curious to get the popular vote on who the masses think will be the best; especially after Cueto's incredible start to the season (13.1 IP/3 ER/6 H/0 BB/18K). Could he have the type of impact this season that Francisco Liriano had two years ago? Only time will tell.

Thursday, April 10, 2008

I now present the second part of week one of our Prospect Watch; this time we'll focus on some of the best pitchers in the minors.

Please note - depending upon the size of your browser window, you might be able to scroll the stats down & to the right; let me know if you like us incorporating stats in this format. This probably works great for a regular PC browser but it doesn't look so great on a Blackberry or other portable Internet device...

Wednesday, April 9, 2008

One new regular weekly feature on Roto Advice will be our Prospect Watch. One of the difficult parts of finding the next Tim Lincecum or Johnny Cueto is keeping track of who's doing well in the minors; all the players at all of the levels can be overwhelming. What we'll be doing is starting with a list of some of the top prospects in baseball (not all of whom are close to the majors, such as Angel Villolona of the Giants) & provide their YTD stats at each level.

I understand that stats aren't the only sign of success, but stats can go a long way towards telling us whether players are continuing to succeed (like Andrew McCutchen's 2 HR thus far on the season) or making progress in areas of weakness (such as Brandon Wood's K rate, which is currently at 12 K's in 26 AB's, with only 1 BB - ouch; no progress there yet).

The list will probably morph into something different as the season progresses, but hopefully this will help some fantasy managers, especially those who have minor league roster spots or those in deep leagues. Other blogs already have some great variations of this feature available, such as Fantasy Gameday's prospect watch or one of Brock for Broglio's daily prospect reports, but this should also be a useful tool to help supplement those items, especially since it will focus on the player's YTD performance.

Some of the prospects who will be featured in our first installment this week include:

Please supply feedback of others you'd like me to track, but keep in mind that this list has to provide the biggest bang for the buck - meaning it can't grow to 300 names by the end of the season. What I'll likely do as well is sort them in some logical manner, such as Baseball America's top 100, ESPN's top prospects, etc. This way, it just won't be a random list of names, but you'll be able to easily see the "top prospects" vs. some of the longer term lower level minor league prospects.

Sunday, April 6, 2008

Some fantasy owners have a bad habit of panicking & making drastic moves too early in the season - whether it be making a trade that's not in their favor or balanced, picking up so so players who start the season hot, or worst of all, dropping good contributors who start the season ice cold.

Today, I'm going to take a look at some of the top drafted players who are off to cold starts & let you know whether you should worry or wait it out. I'm going to give one of the three following suggestions - 1) No need to worry (meaning the player will still put up top #s, 2) Hold (meaning just that, don't drop the player yet, but keep an eye on their performance), and 3) Run! (meaning it's probably time start thinking about an out plan).Matt Holliday - .182 Avg/1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 R, SBNo need to worryHolliday always puts up better numbers at home than on the road, and his first three games of the season were on the road against the Cardinals; last season, Holiday put up a .376 Avg at home & a .301 Avg on the road. Don't worry about Matt's slow start; he'll still finishing the year with top-10 #'s.

Alfonso Soriano - .077 Avg /1 HR/3 RBI/2 R/1 SBNo need to worrySoriano started slow last season as well, hitting .205 in the first half of April. He ended up with only 1 RBI in 74 April AB's in 2007, so he's actually ahead of last year's numbers.

What's worth keeping an eye on is his recent time at 2B, which would really increase his value in fantasy baseball. Don't panic yet, but his value is likely to increase if he adds 2B eligibility.

David Ortiz - .091 Avg/4 R/1 HR/2 RBINo need to worryBig Papi was only hitting .217 at this point last season, so no worries. Expect another big season from Ortiz.

Robinson Cano - .105 Avg/0 HR/0 RBI/0 R/0 SBNo need to worryCano has proven to be an excellent major league hitter after his first few seasons in the big leagues. He's off to a rough start, but he's hitting high in a great lineup, so expect him to end up having a great season.

Russell Martin - .053 Avg/0 HR/2 RBI/1 SBHoldMartin has started this year quite cold, and was recently dropped from 2nd to 6th in the batting order. Don't panic and make any irrational moves with Martin, but keep any eye on his performance. Given where he was drafted in many leagues (round 3-6), his performance will have to be extremely good this season to justify his average draft position.

Jason Bay - .167 Avg/4 R/1 SBHoldThis is supposed to be a bounce back season for Bay, although he's off to a slow start. Don't panic yet, but monitor the situation closely. This might be a good time to trade for Bay at a lower than market value; I have confidence he'll finish the year with very good numbers.

Andruw Jones - .167 Avg/1 RBIHoldOuch, this probably isn't the start the Dodgers were hoping for when they signed Jones to a big free agent contract in the off season. Jones still has power, and he's likely to finish the year with his 30+ HR & 100+ RBI; just make sure you're expectations are in line with the reality that he likely won't hit .270 or above.

Matt Kemp - .133 Avg/1 R/1 RBIHoldThis one is the biggest surprise to me. I have very lofty expectations for Kemp this season (20+ HR/SB), but this is a rough way to get things going, especially with Juan Pierre sitting on the bench waiting for playing time. I don't think this slow start will have a major impact on the potential impact Kemp will make this year, but it will allow the Dodgers to give Pierre some playing time in Kemp's place over the short term. I anticipate Kemp to finish the year with 500+ AB & excellent numbers, but let's just hope the slump doesn't continue for too long.

Gary Sheffield - .143 Avg/1 RBIRun!Sheffield could possibly have another great season like he did in 2007, but given his age & recent injury, I'd be very afraid. Considering he's turning 40 later this year, he's still an excellent player; but at some point, his age is going to make it tougher & tougher to bounce back from injuries...although Julio Franco has proven that it's possible to play until you're ??, so who knows.

Soon, I'll be taking a look at some of the fastest starters to the year & their long term value (hint - don't drop Swisher for Nady).

3) N McLouth (OF - Pit) - 3-5/1 HR/4 RBI/2 R/1 BBThis might be a breakout year for McLouth. After putting up 13 HR & 22 SB (with only 1 CS) in only 329 ab last season, he now has the CF job all to himself for 2008. He's a great power / speed sleeper, and he was voted as the Pirates breakout player this season in a pre-season poll in the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. If he's available on your waiver wire, you might want to pick him up, especially if you have any open roster spots due to players on the DL or if you are in a non-keeper league & are holding the Jay Bruce types waiting for a call-up. Get McLouth now, before it's too late.

T4) F Gutierrez (OF - Cle) - 3-3/1 HR/3 RBI/2 R/1 BBAnother sleeper to keep an eye on this season. The RF job is all his, and he had an awesome spring. He might surprise some by putting up a 20+ HR/SB season, but he's very talented & he's part of a very good Indians lineup. If you have room on your roster, see if he's available.