Emergent Research

EMERGENT RESEARCH is focused on better understanding the small business sector of the US and global economy.

Authors

The authors are Steve King and Carolyn Ockels. Steve and Carolyn are partners at Emergent Research and Senior Fellows at the Society for New Communications Research. Carolyn is leading the coworking study and Steve is a member of the project team.

Videos

Disclosure Policy

Emergent Research works with corporate, government and non-profit clients. When we reference organizations that have provided us funding in the last year we will note it.
If we mention a product or service that we received for free or other considerations, we will note it.

The providers of the experiences are independent workers who, according to Airbnb, "create unique experiences around your city, and earn extra money by bringing others along."

The point about "extra money" makes it clear that Airbnb sees this a source of supplemental income, not a full-time job.

Friedman points out that tour guiding will likely not solve the middle class jobs problem. But he thinks it is part of the solution.

Again from the article:

"Is this the only answer for the American middle-class jobs challenge? Of course not. There is no one answer. That’s the point.

We have to do 50 things right to recreate that broad middle class of the ’50s and ’60s, and platforms like Airbnb’s are just one of them. (Having universal health care to create a safety net under all of these budding entrepreneurs would be another.) But you have to be inspired by how many people are now finding joy and income by mining their passions."

The mainstream media has not, on average, been thrilled about the rise of the gig economy. In fact, mostly it's been quite hostile.

So it's good to see someone as influential as Thomas Friedman be supportive.

July 27, 2017

The round was led by Softbank's Vision fund and also included investments by tech billionaires Jeff Bezos and Eric Schmidt.

The advantages of indoor farming are clear. By taking plants out of their outdoor environments and moving them inside to a controlled environment you can eliminate the problems associated with drought, pests, weeds and extreme weather.

This means the farms can produce more food in a smaller footprint than traditional outside farms.

They also can more easily use sensors and data analytics to optimize growing conditions.

This, combined with being indoors, means no pesticides or herbicides and reduces water requirements. The food is also grown close to population centers, so it's delivered fresher and with lower supply chain costs.

The major downside of indoor farming has historically been higher prices.

But the various indoor food startups are all claiming they can deliver their indoor food for the same cost, or even cheaper, than outdoor grown organic food.

Plenty has plenty of competition. Aerofarms, BrightFarms, Bowery Farming, Freight Farms, Green Sense Farms and many others are all developing indoor farming systems. Most of these have venture capital backing.

July 25, 2017

71% of healthcare executives surveyed said they are already using on-demand labor platforms, and the same percent believe that building a strong contingent workforce will help them win the war on talent.

Driven by a surge in on-demand labor platforms and online work management solutions, traditional hierarchies are being replaced with open talent marketplaces, which four-fifths (80 percent) of health executives surveyed believe will drive profound shifts in their economics.

This report is based in part on Accenture's broader Technology Vision 2017 study. This study contained one of the most aggressive forecasts we've seen on the gig economy. Key quote:

In five years or less, the presumptive judgments around full-time employment and freelancers will flip completely. Compared to traditional full-time employment, talent marketplaces will provide workers with improved earning opportunities, more rewarding work, secure benefits, and respected credentials.

Accenture goes on to say that the digital transformation of labor and the growing use of talent marketplaces are "the railroad tracks of the digital era".

There are many examples of the gig economy expanding in healthcare. These include:

The Stem: a ‘networked consulting’ model that draws on the industry’s leading independent talent to help health companies increase customer/patient engagement.

July 24, 2017

A recent study by researchers at the University of Birmingham found "that employees with higher levels of autonomy in their work reported positive effects on their overall well-being and higher levels of job satisfaction."

Key quote from Dr. Daniel Wheatley, who led the study:

"Greater levels of control over work tasks and schedule have the potential to generate significant benefits for the employee, which was found to be evident in the levels of reported well-being."

The study also found control over where people work and the associated informal work flexibility also add to job satisfaction. Again from Wheatley:

‘The positive effects associated with informal flexibility and working at home, offer further support to the suggestion that schedule control is highly valued and important to employees “enjoying” work.’

As regular readers know, work autonomy, control and flexibility are the key reasons people enjoy being independent workers/self-employed.

... those who create, manage and control their own work assignments, work place and schedules - "Job Makers" - reported very high levels of satisfaction (86% satisfied or highly satisfied) ... few (less than 5%) would prefer having a traditional and almost all plan to continue as independent workers."

In other words, independent workers with autonomy and control are highly satisfied and like their work.

Even though independent work has its challenges, the ability to have greater control and flexibility far outweighs the hurdles of working solo. Among all independents, 77 percent say they are happier working on their own than in a traditional job ... A solid majority—64 percent of all independents and 70 percent of Full Time Independents—said working on their own is better for their health.

The company hasn't t yet announced which cities will be included in the Treasure Truck’s nationwide launch, but it is expected to initially include about a dozen locations.

The Treasure Truck is yet another example of the rapidly expanding industry of truck-based commerce.

The drivers behind this trend are:

trucks are cheaper to open and operate than traditional stores.

trucks are mobile and provide a way to tap into a broader pool of customers.

trucks attract attention making them useful for branding and advertising.

We have more on this in our Food Trucks/Mobile Commerce section. In this section you will a wide variety of truck-based retailers including art galleries, financial services vendors, shoe stores, fashion trucks of various kinds and even a truck that sells yarn.

It obviously covers the fact that unions don't like the report. But it also covers the mostly negative reactions from a wide variety of other sources, including industry groups and lawyers.

The report calls for measures to help boost the rights of workers for companies such as Uber and the popular U.K. delivery service Deliveroo. But it also warns against new national regulations or rules that reduce worker flexibility and/or greatly increase costs for gig economy companies.

This combination of some findings being pro-labour, while others are pro-gig economy companies makes no one happy.

But it also means the report captures the complex reality of the gig economy, which is it has both good and bad attributes.

From our perspective the most interesting part of the Taylor Review is their discussion of what they call "one-sided flexibility". Key quote from their blog post on the study findings:

One sided flexibility is when employers seek to transfer all risk on to the shoulders of workers in ways which make people more insecure and make their lives harder to manage. It is the people told to be ready for work or travelling to work only to be told none is available. It is the people who have spent years working for a company on a zero hours contract but who, without a guarantee of hours from week to week, can’t get a mortgage or a loan. It is the people who feel that if they ever raise legitimate concerns about their treatment they will simply be denied the hours they desperately need.

While (rightly) being highly critical of one sided flexibility, the report says two-sided flexibility is good:

Two way flexibility is great, it can enable more people to work in the way they want when they want across their lifecycle.

Our work has consistently shown if an independent worker has work flexibility and some level of work autonomy and control (two-sided flexibility), they are likely highly satisfied with independent work.

If they don't have these (one sided flexibility), they likely aren't satisfied and prefer traditional employment.

So figuring out how to eliminate one sided flexibility while increasing two-sided flexibility is something we certainly support.

We also support figuring out why the Brits sometimes hyphenate one and two-sided flexibility, but other times don't.

And we support finding out why the guy got to name the study after himself. Can we do that?

But we digress.

The other finding of note in the report is that the U.K. should create a "dependent contractor" employee status. Key report quote:

... government should introduce a new name to refer to the category of people who are eligible for “worker” rights but who are not employees. We recommend that the legislation refer to this group as ‘dependent contractors’.

But the report is more than a bit hazy on how to define who fits into the "dependent contractor" bucket. Again from the report:

In developing the test for the new ‘dependent contractor’ status, control should be of greater importance, with less emphasis placed on the requirement to perform work personally.

We have no idea what this means.

The report also point out that when all is said and done, few people would be classified as dependent contractors.

Despite these issues, we think the concept of a dependent contractor employment status is worth exploring further. It wouldn't fix most of the problems with the laws related to worker classification, but it would fix some.

Overall we think the report is quite good.

The problem is the gig economy is complex with varying groups having varying levels of satisfaction and dissatisfaction with gig work.

Because of this, there are no easy answers, policies or laws that will make everyone happy.

And also like on-demand work, most direct sellers are part-time (85%) with their main motivations being supplemental income and the work flexibility direct selling provides.

The one major difference between those working as direct sellers versus those working for on-demand platforms is demographic. 74% of direct sellers are women, while only about 44% of those working in the online, on-demand economy are.

The main reason for this is many of the products sold by direct sellers are targeted at women. This goes back to the early days of the direct selling industry in the late 1950's and early 60's. At that time the industry specifically targeted women as the market and women as sellers.

They did this because it was believed men would be too busy with full-time jobs to be good sellers. Also, because they weren't home during the day, the industry believed men wouldn't be a good market for products sold via direct sellers.

These views are now out of date, but most direct selling companies continue to target women.

And they continue to stress work flexibility as key reason to be a direct seller. The video clip below, from Austin's KUVE television station, nicely explains the appeal of direct selling for those caring for kids.

The direct selling industry long ago discovered there is demand for highly flexible, low friction work. But to participate in direct selling you need to have the skills, interest and willingness to be a salesperson.

Obviously many people do not have these, but still have the need for highly flexible work.

The on-demand gig economy platforms like Uber, Lyft and others figured this out.

We often read about or hear that Uber and the other online on-demand platforms invented the gig economy.

July 13, 2017

"...over a quarter (26.0%) of US adult internet users—or 56.5 million people—will use a sharing economy service at least once in 2017. This is a higher figure than previously projected due to stronger-than-expected uptake of both ride- and home-sharing services."

This is up from 44.8 million in 2016.

And as the eMarketer chart below shows, they're forecasting that 86.5 million US adult Internet users will use a sharing economy service in 2021.

Equally impressive are their 2017 numbers for Uber and Airbnb.

They say 36.8 million Americans will use Airbnb at least once and 44.4 million will book at least one ride on Uber this year.

Despite all the turmoil at Uber and their negative press, eMarketer is still very bullish on the company.

As their chart below shows, they expect Uber to continue its rapid growth over the next 4 years.

It's clear there is a lot of demand from both consumers and businesses for services like Airbnb and Uber. It's also clear that on-demand and sharing economy products and services in general are also in demand.

37 percent of the study respondents said they already own a business. Most of these use the online platforms to fill in their schedules, find new clients and explore new business opportunities.

Those reporting wanting or planning to start a business — about 20 percent of the survey respondents — use gig work to supplement their income while working on their business and/or are using the platforms to experiment with and test their ideas, products and services, and business models.

More broadly, there is a strong independent streak in general among on-demand workers.

71 percent of survey respondents reported they had always wanted to be their own boss, while 53 percent said they did not like having to answer to a boss, and half vowed not to return to relying solely on a traditional job.

The desire to create and control one’s own schedule was the second-most-frequently cited reason for working in the on demand economy, with 46 percent citing it, behind wanting to earn more/supplemental income (57 percent).

And 91 percent of those surveyed said they like controlling when, where and how they work.

We found the interview interesting because many of the issues around sextech are similar to what we're seeing in other technology domains. In particular, the impact of sex technologies is moving faster than the ethical, social and political discussions related to these technologies.

Key quote from the interview:

Looking at all the different technologies that fall under this futuristic umbrella, whether that’s AI, VR, sex toys or remote connection—or even things like Skype—I thought, “Wow, I’ve uncovered quite a large map. Why isn’t anyone else talking about the ethics behind what we’re creating and the products that we’re investing in?” Because this is going to impact us all. If we think relationships are hard now, let’s try navigating them in five years when we have all this new technology that we have to grapple with.

You could easily substitute A.I., robotics, synthetic biology and many other technologies into this quote and it would still make sense.

Also interesting is many of the trends driving other industries are also impacting the sex industry.

Unbound, for example, will send you a themed sex toy box every three months for $65. Themes include things like "BDSM", "Shower" (both shown below, click to enlarge) and "Harry Potter" (we have no idea).

And just as remote and distributed work is being enabled by technology, so is remote and distributed sex.

Teledildonicss is the term used to describe technologies that enable remote sex by communicating tactile sensations over a data link between the participants.