Yuge: Ted Cruz leads among likely voters in Iowa for the first time, 24/19 over Trump

posted at 1:21 pm on December 7, 2015 by Allahpundit

Not only is he leading but he’s still got that (likely) endorsement from Bob Vander Plaats coming, which will further consolidate evangelicals behind him. Ben Carson has collapsed from 32 percent two months ago to 13 percent now. How much of that remaining 13 percent will shift to Cruz once Vander Plaats weighs in?

We’re six months into the campaign and the first shot still has yet to be fired in the inevitable Trump/Cruz war. Any minute now.

No fancy math needed to see what’s happening. The romance with Carson is over and the romance with Cruz — and, to a lesser extent, Rubio — has begun, and this time it’s unlikely to be a fling. Steve King’s endorsement seems to have helped Cruz a bunch: 19 percent say it made them at least a little more likely to support him. Carson led in October among evangelicals with 36 percent, 18 points better than Trump. Now Cruz leads with 30 percent, 12 points more than Trump and 14 more than Rubio. Carson is now fourth in that group. Yikes. This isn’t the only recent poll to show movement in Iowa for Cruz either; the two most recent polls of the state each had him passing Carson for second place, and Quinnipiac had him just two points behind Trump. There’s every reason to think Monmouth has the order of the race correct right now.

Here’s a result I didn’t expect. The primaries, including and especially Trumpmania, are all about immigration, right? That’s what the media (and plenty of Trump fans) keep telling me. Makes sense too that immigration would be especially important in a state where Steve King has lots of influence. And yet here’s the list of most important issues to Iowans:

Don’t focus on this month’s numbers, which are obviously affected by the terror attacks in Paris and San Bernardino. Even in July, immigration was a fourth-place issue. That helps explain how Rubio, the great amnesty heretic, can suddenly be hot on Trump’s heels there. Apart from one outlier poll last month by Gravis, which had him at 18 percent, these are the best numbers Rubio’s posted in Iowa to date — and when you combine Iowans’ second choice with their first, he’s actually ahead of Trump, 34 percent to 33. (Cruz leads with 42 percent.) Someone’s going to win a bunch of center-right votes in Iowa, just like Romney did in 2012. Right now Rubio’s the guy.

Three questions, then. One: Is this endgame for Jeb? No one expected him to win or even contend for Iowa, but the calculus for GOP donors is different if Rubio’s got a shot at Iowa than if he doesn’t. The donor class wants to stop Trump, sure, but they’re also desperate to stop Cruz; until now, I think they viewed Iowa as a lost cause, a state that would either go to Trump, Cruz, or (in the best-case scenario) Carson. Rubio pulling off a win there would be an establishment dream scenario, though, not only stopping Cruz cold and blowing up Trump but setting Rubio on track to win New Hampshire too and maybe, against all odds, race to an easy win for the nomination. Your call, Bush donors. Keep pumping the dry well you’ve got now in hopes that something will happen before NH or go all-in for Rubio in Iowa to try to make this a short race. Two: Can Trump win New Hampshire if he loses Iowa to Cruz? I think he can, although the margins do matter. If Cruz beats Trump by two points in Iowa, the media will credit Trump the next day for defying the odds and nearly pulling off a win in a state that’s supposed to only break for social conservatives. “Trump is for real!” the headlines will read. If he loses by 15 points, the media will say that Trump is a paper tiger, the Howard Dean of the 2016 GOP primaries. New Hampshirites who are undecided in the final week will read that, tell themselves that Trump has no chance in their state, and tilt towards someone else.

Three: What will the Trump/Cruz war look like?

Will be interesting to see how @realDonaldTrump attacks Cruz. Seems opening is to attack him as a politician who doesnt get biz or winning.

I think that’s right. Trump can’t hit him for being too conservative; that’s suicide in a Republican primary, no matter how heterodox Trump’s own base might be. If he’s smart, he’ll dial in on Cruz’s role in the 2013 shutdown and the economic disruption that future brinksmanship by President Cruz might bring. Trump’s blue-collar fans don’t care about government shutdowns. They like Trump because he promises to make the government work better, not to slow it down or shrink it. The X factor here is whether Trump will try to cast doubt on Cruz’s eligibility by pointing out that he was born in Canada and only recently renounced his (dual) Canadian citizenship. Trump speculated about Cruz’s eligibility back in March but then clarified in September, when Cruz was applauding everything he said, that he felt confident that Cruz was a U.S. citizen under the law. Let’s see how confident he is now that he’s in second in Iowa.

Update: A belated exit question for you. Rubio’s been working hard lately to paint Ted Cruz as dangerously irresponsible on national security thanks to his vote for the USA Freedom Act. Meanwhile, terrorism and national security are among the most important issues to Iowans — and yet it’s Cruz who now leads there. Is that evidence that Rubio’s attacks haven’t gotten a lot of attention yet or that they’re simply not working?

I know it’s way early in the game, but a debate between a strict constitutionalist and a corrupt serial lawbreaker would be an important contrast. That’s what needs to be highlighted between the two Parties. Make the GOP something conservatives can get behind again and underscore the true nature of the Democrat Party. Let America decide on that.

Why can’t I get the Cruz/Beck image out of my mind when they handed out balloons & teddy bears to illegals?

illegals: a threat to jobs, our economy & a real opening for islamist terrorists. A stress to our social structure & education.
Ya’ll believe they’re being vetted? & why did Texas do a push-back on syrian immigrants?

Eric Trump: “The point isn’t just deporting them, it’s deporting them and letting them back in legally.

Megadeath: I’m deranged, but I like it.

Hey, Trumpster Divers! Guess what? We know what Trump’s plan is. We know he wants to let back in “the good ones”. We also know that the process begins on this side of the border, and ends on the other.

Every “good one” will have to make his case from the Mexico side of the border. It’s called control. We can let 10 back in, or 10 million, but we set the criteria, we decide.

Just stop it, you smug, sanctimonious, condescending clowns. We know who we are supporting, what we are supporting, and why. Your incessant hectoring isn’t getting you anywhere. You want to do something productive, defend your own candidates version of amnesty. They all, including Cruz, have one.

Right2bright: honestly, just stop. No-one, not even the other Trumpster-Divers, takes you seriously. You are the Dick Morris of the anti-Trumper set.

I’m not anti-Trump, but at the rate he has been going what are the odds he can go almost 12 months without doing or saying something so outrageous that even his strongest supporters couldn’t defend it?

Who is more likely to make a fatal verbal error in the general…and hand the election to Hillary? Trump or Cruz?

If this were still America, I’d agree with you. But we live in a country that could better be called American Idol. You may dismiss Hillary’s ridiculous “black voice” and empty “girl power” crap, but it WORKS on LIVs (like you wouldn’t believe). And like it or not, so does Trump’s “clown show”. He knows how to appeal to the LIVs (whose votes are, sadly, necessary) while still signaling to us that he’ll make the right choices.

That said, I don’t think Cruz is bad, but he’ll be Dracula by the time the media is done with him (see: Palin, Sarah for further reference). Trump is bigger than the media (or at least acts that way, which plus his money seems to be enough). Their usual tricks just don’t stick to him.

I worked in talk radio for most of my adult life. We create the narratives and you merely follow along. We’re not only the tail wagging the dog… you are the dog and you take a dump when we tell you to.

I worked in talk radio for most of my adult life. We create the narratives and you merely follow along. We’re not only the tail wagging the dog… you are the dog and you take a dump when we tell you to.

Trump doesn’t like losers.
Trump has avoiding attacking Cruz for good reason.
Cruz surge in the polls has solidified his position as a solid, serious candidate who has the support from conservatives that Trump’s campaign badly needs.
No matter how much AP wishes it to be true, Trump will not attack the person he wants as his running mate.
It’s not rocket surgery.

Here’s a result I didn’t expect. The primaries, including and especially Trumpmania, are all about immigration, right? That’s what the media (and plenty of Trump fans) keep telling me

AP are you really this confused? Immigration is National Security and the Economy and Jobs…and Terrorism. Seriously have you been paying attention the last few days or have you been lusting after pictures of Rubio online again.

For example if you let lots of Muslims (a reasonable percentage support Jihad) into the country that is a National Security issue, plus an immigration issue. It is also a terrorism issue. So Rubio is still in trouble…why? Because he supports letting lots of Muslim refugees and immigrants into the country, and Cruz does not.

Let me now tell you what Cruz will do next…go after Rubio and hard. He will point out that Rubio supports letting in hordes of Jihadist into the country.

That is checkmate…and there is no way Rubio can out hawk Cruz as long as Rubio holds that position, and it is doubtful anyone will believe him if he ives up that position now.

Plus why would Cruz attack Trump now? Cruz has played the game well, avoided direct battles with Trump, built his money pile up and get this…Promoted himself and his views. AP you want Cruz to attack Trump because you want Cruz to battle Trump so your beloved Rubio gains.

It is not going to happen, Cruz is going to hammer Rubio. Notice how Paul has been attacking Rubio of late. Interesting times…Perhaps Paul will endorse Cruz when he drops out?

Thank you for that link. This is a phone poll, with +/- 4% margin of error among Republicans.

Washington (CNN)—Donald Trump’s support continues to grow among those who say they are likely to participate in February’s Iowa presidential caucuses and Ted Cruz is on the rise while Ben Carson loses ground in the state, a new CNN/ORC Poll finds.

Overall, Trump has 33% support among likely GOP caucus goers, followed by Cruz at 20% with Carson at 16%, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio at 11% and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush at 4%. The new poll shows Trump up 8 points, Cruz up 9 [Note Rubio down by 2%], while Carson has faded by 7 points, compared with the last CNN/ORC poll, conducted in late October and early November.

The poll finds a markedly different landscape among potential GOP caucus goers than another Iowa poll released Monday by Monmouth University. The difference between the two seems to stem primarily from sampling.

The Monmouth poll interviewed a sample drawn from registered voter lists that primarily comprised those who had voted in state-level Republican primary elections in previous election years. Among those voters, Monmouth found Cruz and Rubio ahead of Trump and Carson. Among voters who were not regular GOP primary voters, however, the poll found Trump ahead, similar to the CNN/ORC poll’s finding.

The CNN/ORC Poll drew its sample from Iowa adults, asking those reached about their intention to participate in their caucus, interest in news about the caucuses, and past participation patterns to determine who would be a likely voter.

But still, Trump’s lead holds even among only those voters who express the most interest in attending the caucus or the most regular past participation in presidential caucuses. Among those in the CNN/ORC poll who say they definitely plan to attend the caucuses and are more interested in news about them than any other news story — a group which represents approximately 8% of Iowa adults — Trump’s lead grows to a 42% to 23% advantage over Cruz, with Rubio at 11% and Carson at 9%.

And among those who say they have participated in almost all of the caucuses for which they have been eligible — about 10% of Iowa adults — Trump leads 38% to 21% for Cruz, with Carson at 12% and Rubio at 11%.

One group that remains a challenge for Trump and which makes up a large share of Iowa’s usual set of Republican caucusgoers is white evangelicals. Among that group, 26% back Cruz, 24% Trump, 20% Carson and 12% Rubio. In last month’s poll, Trump trailed Carson 31% to 20% among white evangelicals, with Cruz at 15% and Rubio at 11%.

He doesn’t get it. He doesn’t even understand your original post. He doesn’t understand humor, irony, sarcasm. He doesn’t know anything about AYNBLAND or his lunatic posting history. He just thinks you are a dumb Trumpette who doesn’t understand “context”, and he’s gonna get ya, all the way from smoggy China!

As I’ve repeatedly explained to TEA Party members and to voters, Democratcare will be THE big issue at the beginning of 2016, voters will not be happy about it, or about Trump’s desire to tax Americans MORE to pay for the socialist disaster.

Overall, the current polling(such as it is) is bad for Trump. Trump’s trend lines are moving down and he has hit his ceiling in Iowa. But because the polling is using a small sample size, it is more than likely ‘poll math noise.’ Meaning Trump, Cruz, and Rubio are all bunched up at the top for now. In Iowa the likely voters are making their minds up. Good news for Cruz and Rubio, bad for Trump and Carson. If this holds, then we will see separation in the other early primaries as well. The real world is starting to push back at the phony media primary, took long enough.

Not surprising. It’s a Monmouth University poll. Trump never fares well in Monmouth polls.This contradicts a CNN poll, which shows Trump with a big lead. But it makes for news for the MSM and a thread for HA.

These are the paths to the nomination. I think. And it’s fine to tell me I’m crazy. I just don’t see any other paths for anyone being realistic.

Trump: Easy. Just win baby. If he wins Iowa and New Hampshire, it may be all over. If he loses both somehow, it’s over in the opposite direction. But I don’t see him losing New Hampshire. At least not yet. Ask me again in a month.

Cruz: Win Iowa. Burst Trump’s aura of invincibility. Survive his almost inevitable New Hampshire victory. Be one of two men left standing after South Carolina. Win the South. Let Trump fade into the background.

Rubio: He has the hardest path to victory. He needs Cruz to win Iowa, then needs to finish a strong second in New Hampshire (winning it is probably too much to ask), and keep it a three man race into the South. Rubio probably needs it to be a three man race for a while. He has a chance of coming out on top in a three way, but probably can’t beat either of Trump or Cruz head-to-head.

Yes, I can punch holes in all three of these, and tell you how ridiculous they are. Trump still has the easiest path to victory. Rubio’s is by far the hardest, and Cruz must must win Iowa for anyone not named Trump to be the nominee.

Oh, the path for anyone not named Trump, Rubio, or Cruz is simple too. Hope for several miracles.

I’ll make a deal with you. I’ll stop using the term if you start calling out v7 on his right2bright level of lying. I know you formerly respected the guy for being a fighter, but now he’s fighting with the truth and reality.

Why would I be hardest hit when I am a contributor to the Cruz campaign? I would ask you where I lied but any interaction with you just produces pages and pages of psychobabble that a normal person would be embarrassed to sign their name to.

Have you Donald Trump supporters ever considered that some of us will not vote for Mr. Trump because we just do not trust him? He throws out platitudes and says he will make America great, and everything is yuge, and insults his own supporters. No thanks,if he is the nominee,I’d rather stay home.

You trump haters/hillary supporters will be a small minority by the time the Trump juggernaut moves towards Nov 2016.

And have you Trump haters focus out we’ve been stabbed in the back enough by the GOP that we don’t care for hardly anything that they have to offer including Cruz? Maybe keep giving us the same crap and see how that turns out.