Bucks Projections Show Affordable Housing Need

December 17, 1987|by CHUCK AYERS, The Morning Call

A projection of housing construction in Bucks County through the year 2000 was announced by the Bucks County Planning Commission yesterday, revealing no surprises in the anticipated development trend but indicating a need for more affordable housing.

Based on population trends previously identified by the commission, the projections show the highest volume of housing will be developed in Lower Bucks and will virtually force the last vestiges of farming from that area, according to Robert E. Moore, executive director of the commission.

"There are no surprises, just a twinge of sadness. It means things are changing real fast and Bucks County is going to be dramatically changed," he said.

Moore said the housing projections will be used in conjunction in income profiles and housing costs compiled by the commission to derive an affordability index of housing across the county. County officials will identify specific types of housing that will be needed for workers at various economic levels.

"Basically, they (the projections) will be part of the county comprehensive plan to show the housing that will be needed," he said.

To form a comprehensive picture, Moore said the employment aspects in the county must be included addressing the number of jobs, the industries that will be operating in the county and the wage levels of employees.

"We need to look at whether we're providing housing affordable to the people in the jobs that have been created," he said.

Bucks County has seen an in-crease in service sector jobs in fast foods and retail sales, he said. That has created the beginning of what may become a critical problem in the future.

Even today, said Moore, those industries are having a difficult time attracting labor from the local workforce because the cost of housing is outstripping the wages paid to employees.

A drastic example of what could happen is illustrated in Boston, where an insurance company there has been hired to bus workers from low income areas because no one living in the vicinity of the industries can afford to take the jobs, said Moore.

In that scenario, he said, the cost of housing relative to salaries has risen to the point where it has squeezed the available pool of labor from the local picture.

Bucks County for the last 10 years has been unwittingly moving toward such a circumstance, said Moore.

"They're just not paying enough to get the people to work near where they live," he said.

The preliminary analysis indicates that within Bucks, "We need to offer different jobs at different pay scales and housing that allows the people to take these jobs," he said.

On the agricultural front, Moore said by 1990 there will be no farms south of Doylestown and by the year 2000, "There will be very few farms remaining in Bucks County."

And the nature of farming, too, will change with the diminishing amounts of farmland. Moore said the traditional field crops such as corn, soybeans and wheat will be replaced by specialty crops, such as vegetables and tomatoes.

Said Moore, "The economy is dynamic. It doesn't exist on residential development alone."