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October 14, 2013

Big Story Weather – October 14, 2013

by editor

redOrbit Meteorologist Joshua Kelly

Big Story Weather from October 11-13:

This past weekend we saw yet another winter storm take shape which brought moderate snowfall to the Rockies. Severe weather on Friday was limited to a tornado over Western Minnesota. On Saturday a landspout formed over Texas along with 1-inch hail in Louisiana and wind gusts of 60-70mph over Texas. On Sunday found more damaging winds were found over Texas at around 60-70mph along with heavy snowfall over the Rockies. A few places in Central Texas also reported up to 1 foot of rainfall over the weekend.

Big Story Weather Discussion for October 14:

Surface Map: High pressure over the Great Lakes will extend into the Gulf Coast bringing partly cloudy skies to the entire region. This will extend into the East Coast as well. Low pressure moving through the Rockies today will bring higher elevation snows and with moderate rainfall over the Plains. Some severe weather is also possible over Southern Texas and Oklahoma. The West Coast will remain dry.

Severe Weather: There will be a small chance for damaging winds over Oklahoma and Texas today .

Winter Weather: Winter storm warnings in effect for the Rockies and also the Black Hills as both places could see another 4-8 inches of snowfall with locally heavier amounts possible.

Flooding: Today the biggest flooding area will be over Western Texas.

Tropical Weather: The invest over the Atlantic is slowly moving towards the west with some intensification possible. In the Eastern Pacific we have Tropical Storm Octave with winds around 55kts. It is currently approaching the Baja. To the south of that we have Tropical Storm Priscilla.

Winds: Very strong winds in excess of 50mph are going to be moving along the front from South Dakota to Kansas.

Select City Forecast:

Boston MA: Partly cloudy with a high near 61F and overnight lows near 54F.

Houston TX: Mostly cloudy with showers and a high near 83F and overnight lows near 74F. Total rainfall will be around 1.25 inches with flooding possible.

Chicago IL: Partly cloudy skies with a high near 59F and overnight lows near 50F. The lake winds will keep the region from feeling the frost of the surrounding areas.

Billings MT: Mostly cloudy with rain and snow. High temps around 39F and overnight lows near 34F. Total rainfall near 0.25 inches and total snowfall around 1-2 inches.

Portland OR: Partly cloudy with a high near 57F and overnight lows near 52F.

October 14, 2013 Storm Tracker Update:

Latest Images (RIGHT): (TOP) Typhon Wipha which has winds around 105kts as it continues to track to the east of Japan. The bottom image is Typhoon Nari which is poised to push into Vietnam with strong winds, flooding rains. Winds are now around 80kts.

Eastern Pacific Ocean: Low pressure moving into Alaska will bring another day of showers and snow showers to the region. Low pressure moving into the Plains will bring showers and mountain snows to the region along with severe weather. Tropical Storm Octave currently near the Baja has winds around 55kts and pressure near 995mb, It will continue to track towards the Baja. Tropical storm Priscilla continues tracking towards the west and should remain over open waters with winds around 35kts and pressure of 1001mb.

Atlantic Ocean: We are still watching an area off the coast of Africa for possible tropical development. Low pressure along the East Coast will bring another day of showers and coastal flooding to the region. Low pressure over Greenland will bring showers to the region. This will extend into Iceland as well.

Western Pacific: Typhoon Nari now has winds around 80kts and pressure near 963mb. The storm is and will still be impacting Vietnam over the next 24-36 hours with very strong winds and flooding rains. Typhoon Wipha will continue moving west-northwest before turning northward and moving just off the coast of Japan. Winds are now around 105kts and pressure is near 944mb.

Indian Ocean: The remains of Phailin are moving over India today bringing heavy rainfall to Northeast India. The remainder of the basin is fairly tranquil.

Southern Hemisphere: Multiple areas of low pressure moving through the basin. Impacts are being felt over Southern Argentina with showers. Impacts are being felt over Southern Africa with gusty winds and showers extending over Madagascar. A third area of impact will be over Southwest Australia.

Five-Day Storm Index Outlook for October 14-18:

Boston MA: The area will start out impact free with a chance of showers by the 16th and 17th which will leave the area with slight impacts.

Houston TX: The area will see moderate impacts over the next few days associated with showers, The region will finish the period impact free.

Chicago IL: The area will start out impact free. Showers will be in the region by the 15th and 16th. The area will finish impact free.

Billings MT: The area will see moderate impacts today with rain and snow showers giving way to a nice remainder of the period impact free.

Portland OR: The next five days will be impact free for the region.

Climate Watch Almanac for October 9-13:

Boston MA: The area started with temps around 2-3 degrees below normal and then warmed to around 2-3 degrees above normal before finishing the period around 1-2 degrees below.

Houston TX: The region started around 1-2 degrees below then warmed to around 2-5 degrees above normal followed by a 7 degree below normal finish.

Chicago IL: The past five days have been mild over the city with temps around 1-12 degrees above normal.

Billings MT: The region has seen temps around 8-19 degrees below normal for the past five days.

Portland OR: The area has seen temps around 2-7 degrees below normal for the past five days.

Major Weather Impacts Discussion for October 14, 2013:

Day 1-3: Today will start out with high pressure over the Great Lakes extending into the Southeast and Gulf Coast bringing partly cloudy skies and nice weather. A strong storm system moving into the Plains will bring showers and thunderstorms along with higher elevation snows to the region including the Rockies. The West Coast will enjoy a tranquil day as well. The Baja will see an increase in showers associated with the tropical. Day two will have high pressure from the East Coast back into the Gulf Coast, while the storm system pushes into the Great Lakes and back into Texas. The tropical moisture will also get picked up into the frontal boundary and push heavier rainfall across Texas. High pressure will keep the Rockies and West Coast dry and cool. The period will end with showers over the Northeast.

Day 4-7: The period will start with a weak area of low pressure over the Mid-Atlantic bringing showers to the region, while high pressure dominates the rest of the country. Day five a weak clipper system will move across the Great Lakes bringing a few light snow showers to the region and this will also hold true over the Northern Plains. The period will end with high pressure along both coasts and a new storm system developing in the Plains region bringing showers to the area.

Day 8-12: The period will start with a low pressure area over the Great Lakes and Northeast bringing showers and a few snow showers to the region. High pressure will dominate the West Coast and the Rockies. Day ten rain and snow showers will be possible over the Northeast and into the Eastern Lakes, while high pressure will be over the South and also the Pacific Northwest. Day eleven will have a few rain and snow showers over the Northeast, high pressure over the Southeast, a new low pressure area developing in the Southwest bringing showers to the region, and another weak low pushing over the Northern Rockies bringing a large snowfall event to the region from Montana to Idaho. The period will end with a significant storm system over the Plains with showers, thunderstorms, severe weather and winter weather all possible with this system.

Long Range Outlook: The period will start with low pressure over the Great Lakes. A strong cold front will be over the Gulf Coast bringing showers, thunderstorms and some severe weather to the region. A strong cold area of high pressure will be settling in over the Plains bringing well below normal temps to the area. During the middle of the period the strong cold air masses will push into the Gulf of Mexico triggering a Gulf low to form which will bring heavy amounts of rainfall to the Gulf Coast and Southeast. Another low pressure area will bring another round of rain and snow showers to the Northern Plains. The period will finish with yet another strong cold air mass pushing into the region. Another frontal boundary over the Southwest will set the stage for another potent storm system over the Plains with severe weather, heavy rainfall and snowfall.

Today's Spotlight Cities Forecast:

New York NY: Partly cloudy with a high near 64F and overnight lows near 55F. Tuesday partly cloudy with a high near 67F and overnight lows near 61F. Wednesday partly cloudy with a few isolated thunderstorms. High temps around 67F and overnight lows near 60F. Total rainfall around 0.25 inches. Thursday partly cloudy with a few morning showers. High temps around 66F and overnight lows near 60F. Total rainfall around 0.05 inches. Friday partly cloudy with a high near 60F and overnight lows near 49F.

Fargo ND: Mostly cloudy with heavy rain today. High temps around 48F and overnight lows near 40F. Total rainfall near 1.25 inches. Tuesday mostly cloudy with showers. High temps around 45F and overnight lows near 31F. Total rainfall around 0.65 inches. Wednesday partly cloudy with a high near 50F and overnight lows near 40F. Thursday partly cloudy with a high near 50 and overnight lows near 37F. Friday mostly cloudy with rain and snow. High temps around 44F and overnight lows near 30F. Total rainfall near 0.25 inches and total snowfall near a trace.

San Diego CA: Partly cloudy with a high near 72F and overnight lows near 67F. Tuesday partly cloudy with a high near 75F and overnight lows near 66F. Wednesday partly cloudy with a high near 74F and overnight lows near 63F. Thursday partly cloudy with a high near 73F and overnight lows near 62F. Friday partly cloudy with a high near 71F and overnight lows near 61F.

Ask The Weatherman for October 14, 2013:

Question: What is the definition of the polar front jet?

Answer: The polar front jet, or PFJ for short, is the separation of cold, dry air to the north and warm, moist air to the south. This feature is located in between 20,000 and 30,000ft above the sky. This massive separation of temps and moisture allows for very strong winds to flow. Winds can be in excess of 50kts and sometimes get as high as 200kts.

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Green Energy Weather Report for October 14, 2013:

Wave Energy: The Northeast to the Mid-Atlantic and over all the Southeast will see slight to moderate amounts of energy today. The Gulf Coast will see little amounts of energy today as the winds will be fairly light over the region. The arrival of Tropical Storm Octave will bring extreme amounts of wave energy over SOCAL. There will be moderate amounts of energy over the Pacific Northwest as well.

Hydro Energy: The Plains from South Dakota to Texas will see moderate amounts of energy short term, while long term energy will accumulate over the Rockies and the Black Hills.

Solar Energy: There will be ample amounts of solar energy over the Northeast into the Great Lakes and south over the Gulf Coast and the Southeast. There will also be ample amounts of energy over the Pacific Northwest.

Wind Energy: There will be ample amounts of energy over the Plains region today ahead of the cold front.

October 14 Weather and Your Wallet (Biloxi MS):

High pressure over the region will keep the area nice today with light winds and plenty of sunshine.

Dining: There will be no issues with enjoying lunch outdoors today.

Transportation: There will be no weather impacts on the major roadways today.

Shopping: Today will be a nice day to get out and enjoy the holiday sales.

Electricity: There will be a small window of cooling needed this afternoon as the forecast is for 10CDD’s.

Yard Work: Today will be an excellent day with 25GDD’s in store for the region. A nice day to get the lawn cut as well.

Construction: There will be no impacts to the high rise projects or the outdoor projects.

Outdoor Venues: Today will be a very nice day to hit the boardwalk, walk the bridge, or even take a walk on the beach.