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As for Windows 8 and its ARM-based brother, Windows RT, Lorizio says the systems will sell much more quickly than its PC-based predecessor, Windows 7. “When Windows 8 goes live on October 26, the [size of the market] is [over] 1 billion consumers. Our goal … is conservatively over 400 million units in the marketplace by July 1.”

Which drugs do the Managers at MSFT consume to have such unrealistic expectations?

JorgeA

Posted 08 October 2012 - 10:03 AM

For MicroNokia, early indications and word on the street has not been good at all. These are the danger ahead articles over at Fanboy Central just in the past month ...

Great roundup of articles, thanks!

One WOULD think that if the market thought Win8 were going to be such a winner, Nokia's stock price wouldn't be dropping.

Back in the spring I did some research and noticed that, several weeks prior to the GA of Windows 7 and even Vista, there was a significant bump in the price of MSFT. But here we are, barely half a month from the official release of Windows 8, and the stock hasn't budged. I'll have to go back and see how long before GA those bumps occurred; memory suggests it was about 4-6 weeks.

JorgeA

Posted 08 October 2012 - 10:20 AM

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As for Windows 8 and its ARM-based brother, Windows RT, Lorizio says the systems will sell much more quickly than its PC-based predecessor, Windows 7. “When Windows 8 goes live on October 26, the [size of the market] is [over] 1 billion consumers. Our goal … is conservatively over 400 million units in the marketplace by July 1.”

And they say this is a conservative estimate?? Sounds like they seriously need some outdoor time, as there's something funny in the air inside MS HQ.

The 400 million figure must include not only "real computers," but also tablets and phones. Still, the forecast sounds wildly optimistic.

It’s about providing the same experiences across all devices in the Microsoft family—not just across the PC, but across mobile, across Xbox, and across the phone. And third, we’re going to have beautiful, relevant, and personal ads. So all of the ads are going to be integrated; they’re not going to be disruptive to the user experience, but beautiful, relevant, and useful.

They really don't get it that a phone is not a PC. I don't want my phone to work like a PC, much less do I want my PC to work like a phone.

And, where exactly are these "personal ads" going to appear -- directly on the Metro start screen? Can you think of a faster way to drive people AWAY from your OS, than by making it a vehicle for even more (and more intrusive) advertising?

Posted 08 October 2012 - 12:50 PM

Anyone expecting Microsoft to take an artificially conservative approach to Windows 8 market acceptance is going to find this news interesting: A senior Microsoft executive said over the weekend that the software giant will see much better than expected success with Windows 8, thanks to its new “pivot” on consumers.

that they use drugs on working hours.

We have years of medical studies on the effect of drugs so it is easy to find out which is which, and it doesn't sound like LSD (which seems a lot ike the one used by the design team ), but this one sounds more like peyote :http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peyote

As a comparation, it took Windows 7 :http://techcrunch.co...s-of-windows-7/23 months to sell 450 million copies, so if the trend (and it doesn't seem to me like the world economical situation is the same) remains the same (and doing an unfair average as initially Windows 7 didn't start that fast) 450/23*9=~176 millions This would leave 450-176=274 millions of the sales relating to either the Surface or to the Nokia phones. (please read to something that doesn't yet exist and to something that doesn't sell)

CharlotteTheHarlot

Posted 08 October 2012 - 02:35 PM

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If the laptops feature touch screens, we also have to factor in the cost of that technology. So... extra $$$ (possibly) shelled out for the opportunity to keep your arm constantly extended in ergonomically dubious ways.

Yeah, but a big "if" I would say. Disregarding the first photo ( doesn't even specify the screen size ) the laptops look like they have trackpads built in, but I guess we cannot rule out trackpad + touchscreen. But that last AIO PC specifically says "touchscreen" so I would assume that HSN is counting on that as a selling point and would necessarily include that in the laptop descriptions. UPDATE: I missed the "touchscreen" spec on the 3rd laptop, it is there obviously. It is a dual configuration. That's probably the only acceptable design for a laptop IMHO.

The deals there pretty much suck based solely on specs, but considering Acer has been pulling up the rear on overall quality and satisfaction for the past decade, the two Acer deals there really REALLY suck. Buying something off that page as it stands should qualify the sucker a nomination for a Darwin award.

JorgeA

Posted 08 October 2012 - 06:44 PM

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We have years of medical studies on the effect of drugs so it is easy to find out which is which, and it doesn't sound like LSD (which seems a lot ike the one used by the design team ), but this one sounds more like peyote :http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peyote

Speaking of the influence of drugs, do the Metro Start Menu backgrounds...

Posted 09 October 2012 - 12:33 AM

In the end, the tablet market will decide Windows 8's success or failure, not desktop market or the operating system's pre-launch performance. For Microsoft, it is less of a gamble than many journalists and analysts seem to think it will be.

We'll soon see how many thousands of Microsoft fanatics, eager to be parted from their money, will camp out overnight for the release of Windows 8 and Surface and other Win8 tablets...

( Credit for this story goes to Ed Bott at ZDNet, a detail I missed early this morning when it broke. ) The original HSN page now helpfully says: We were unable to find an item that matched your current selections..

"Unfortunately, HSN made this offer without the support or authorization of Microsoft.

Microsoft and major retailers are getting ready for general availability of Windows 8 devices on 10/26 and not prior to that date. Once Microsoft learned of the HSN promotion, we contacted them and asked that they discontinue the on-air and online offer since it is not yet 10/26, the date that marks the official availability of Windows 8." --- Microsoft

"A Lenovo spokesperson has confirmed to TechRadar that the tablet will start at $629 (UK£392, AU$612). That price does not include the keyboard/dock, which the spokesperson said will be available "as an option.""

Not much hard info though. It is a Windows 8 Tablet, and only the tablet. From what I can see it is cannot be the RT retard edition since it is an Intel Atom ( Clover Trail ), so let's really mess things up by calling it WoA - Windows on Atom! Seriously though, $629 at the minimum? The obvious conclusion to me is that all we can expect from the Windows 8 and Metro iteration is higher prices for less functionality, with strong emphasis on LESS. Microsoft has become Apple. MicroApple. Thanks a lot guys. And the desktop will become the last bastion of value for the discerning consumer. All the rest deserve their Darwin awards.

JorgeA

Posted 09 October 2012 - 09:21 AM

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Seriously though, $629 at the minimum? The obvious conclusion to me is that all we can expect from the Windows 8 and Metro iteration is higher prices for less functionality, with strong emphasis on LESS.

My sentiments exactly. There are so few scenarios where a tablet even approaches the usefulness of a laptop with a similarly sized screen, that I've gone bald scratching my head as to why tablets are so popular.

BTW, in the Iron Maiden app post, did you notice the following troll:

I hope they don't think they'll sell more Windows 8 licenses with this kind of crap-apps...

I'm still waiting to see a useful app on the store... an app, you know, that will replace what I can already do, on the desktop...

I mean, "modern apps" are supposed to replace the desktop judging by what I read everyday on Neowin... I don't think an Iron Maiden app is a good substitute to Autocad or Photoshop?!

JorgeA

Posted 09 October 2012 - 10:44 AM

Oh, the joys of living in The Cloud! A few months ago it was a German photographer whose seminude pictures got deleted, now it's another user whose account was actually closed for uploading comics.

As one commenter wrote,

It's a worrying trend. How long until a version of Windows defaults to saving all your content in the cloud? Windows 8 already comes bundled with SkyDrive and the default login method is via a Microsoft account. Soon Microsoft will dictate what you are and aren't allowed to view. Good times.

And yet we have all these cretins visionaries touting The Cloud as the future.

Is all of your PC stuff approved by meddlers and busybodies and Internet police? How can you even know, 'til it's too late?

For the sake of the Desktop's future, I'm actually rooting for the fruit people to clean MS's clock in the tablet market. Let all of MS's efforts in that sphere flop completely. The two Steves could use a good spanking to set them straight.

JorgeA

Posted 10 October 2012 - 12:55 AM

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Another forum has published the results of a poll of Windows 8 users. Details of the survey methodology were not released, but if the numbers bear any relation to the broader Windows public, it's not good news for Windows 8.

Although Windows 8 Beta has been released with great expectations, unfortunately, it seems that users are not as enthusiastic about Windows 8 as Microsoft had hoped. According to the survey, the most popular Windows system is still Windows 7 (53%), with only 25% users voting Windows 8 as their favorite.

Features distinctive to Win8 or which are being aggressively pushed in the new OS -- such as the app store, Metro UI, SkyDrive, and the Charms bar -- all finished at the low end of the scale in respondents' rankings.

Curiously, although the respondents were (said to be) Win8 users, by a 3-2 plurality they reported that they would rather purchase an Android-based mobile OS than "Windows 8 Mobile," and almost as many (33%) would prefer to buy an Android tablet as would choose a Surface (35%).

Take this for what it's worth. (Survey methodology needs to be published!) Still, it's a conversation piece.

jaclaz

Posted 10 October 2012 - 03:34 AM

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If I may, I would set aside the topic of Skydrive.
If - for any reason - the images that created the closing of the account were - even remotely - connected to or similar to or viewable as any form of child pornography, I do understand the MS policy, and while I understand how it could be a nuisance for the casual innocent user that sees his/her account shut down, I personally find that it's relevance, when compared with the crime that is supposedly being committed, justifies it.

The only observation I can do is that the 48 hours time to provide justifications is too short a time.

BTW there is also a procedural issue, under US Law, even if you are a forensic investigator, as soon as you see an item that could be associated to CP, you should stop and call the Police or the Feds, compare with:http://www.forensicf...er=asc/start=0/

CharlotteTheHarlot

Posted 10 October 2012 - 04:59 AM

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At least a dozen fluff pieces at Fanboy Central on Windows 8 today. This one shows four different spit and polished commercial advertisements ( videos ) apparently created by Microsoft for use in the coming campaign.

I watched all four and I am sure they won't help. They will miss the mark ironically because they are fast and fluid, and that does not match the attention span of the average Joe. Something else featured prominently that really jumps out of these videos is the fact that by design right on the Metro start screen, potential customers would have their private information jumping out of animated live tiles for anybody to see. And with a few swipes a stranger or a child could really do some damage. The Live Tiles are seen as the next big thing by Redmond, and they might be right if it were 3-5 years ago. But the customers are now well practiced and familiar with normal Windows, or Android or Mac/iOS on all manner of devices and to my knowledge were not clamoring for a company to design a GUI that removes more privacy. This splatting of your details on the screen has hardly been mentioned in the past year, but it is the biggest setback to personal privacy and we can thank the fads of the 'real world' or 'twitter' or 'facebook' paving the way for this. These gadgets will make fine toys, but no real adults will like this direction.

Combined with a base salary of $685,000 and other compensation of $13,128, Ballmer's annual compensation came out to $1,318,128. The biggest reason for this relatively low number is that Ballmer did not receive any new Microsoft stock awards as part of his salary.

By contrast, Microsoft's Windows head man Steven Sinofsky got $8,583,732 in compensation from the company, combining a base salary, bonuses, and a nice amount in Microsoft stock bonus holdings.

One interesting thing in the proxy statement is that both Ballmer and Sinofsky didn't get all of the bonus money they could have received. That was due in part to "the Windows division failure to provide a browser choice screen on certain Windows PCs in Europe as required by its 2009 commitment with the European Commission."

Yep, the Board is really on it's toes. Imagine if they did a good job!

Yeah, I would say it's official. Microsoft is going to dive into their cash billions in a futile effort to put lipstick on this pig. "I can tell you, it's going to be difficult to tune in to your typical popular tv show or sports program and not see a Windows commercial in the next few months.". Can't wait. Jeez, if only they had spent more money on Vista. Most embarrasing fanboy of the day award: "Windows 8 will be amazing. If it fails its only because the "computer literate" person in the office/family/school would fill everybody's head up with garbage about "how much it sucks."" Hehe. Yeah, that's why it will fail. Children, you gotta love 'em.

Barforama. Three videos at the link designed for salesman, literally. Even has little popup "speak" bubbles to make sure the salesman trainee knows which are the talking points to parrot to the poor customer. Too bad they forgot to tell the salesmen to explain how to shutdown. Doh! Coming soon, training videos to explain how to install Tihiy's or XpClient's or other Start Menu and Explorer mods. Or better yet, explain the Win7 downgrade upgrade. One commenter had a great suggestion that the companies should begin recording their customer service calls! That would make for some great entertainment. An instant new Windows 8 Metro meme. Classic.

It occurred to me while reading this, that all this talk the past year about Skeuomorphism, a Sinofskyesque talking point, is really happening just as a feeble attempt to rationalize the doomed bonehead ideas from Team B&S. A year from now when the reality of fail sets in, these morons will point back to discussion about post-Skeuomorphism as an excuse for their damaging the Windows brand, discussion they actually initiated and astroturfed. Clever boys. It won't help. The internet remembers.

Q: You've talked about this year being the most epic. Is there another year in Microsoft's history you could compare this to? Maybe the launch of Windows 95?

A: You know, Windows 95 was certainly the biggest thing in the last 20 years until now. I think Windows 8 certainly surpasses it. It's a little hard to compare things like the founding (of the company) and the introduction of the first popular PC and the system that popularized it, but it's at that scale.

Q: What is Microsoft's plan if Windows 8 doesn't take off?

A: You know, Windows 8 is going to do great.

Q: No doubt at all?

A: I'm not paid to have doubts. (Laughs.) I don't have any. It's a fantastic product. ...

Q: The iPad has the largest share of the tablet market, but its soft spot, it seems to me, is the price.With the Surface, are you planning to compete with the iPad on price or on features?

A: We haven't announced pricing. I think we have a very competitive product from the features perspective. ...

I think most people would tell you that the iPad is not a superexpensive device. ... (When) people offer cheaper, they do less. They look less good, they're chintzier, they're cheaper.

If you say to somebody, would you use one of the 7-inch tablets, would somebody ever use a Kindle (Kindle Fire, $199) to do their homework? The answer is no; you never would. It's just not a good enough product. It doesn't mean you might not read a book on it....

If you look at the bulk of the PC market, it would run between, say, probably $300 to about $700 or $800. That's the sweet spot.

Q: Microsoft has spent billions on advertising and marketing. Are you satisfied with what you're getting from those efforts?

A: I think we've done some pretty good work. There's stuff in hindsight I'd say it probably didn't work as effectively as we had wanted....

Just yelling loudly in any business is never going to help. It's a combination of product, romance, volume. And we've done very well with Xbox. We sell a lot of Windows. We're running this campaign right now for (Internet Explorer 9). The campaign seems to be working both in terms of perception, romance.

Posted 11 October 2012 - 08:45 AM

I was too. I found it on Register yesterday and thought of posting it.... but seeing the date of the article made me think "someone MUST have posted it already." Oh well.

I'm not too sure I'd be saying that Windows 8 is as important or revolutionary as Windows 95 is warranted. When Windows 95 came out, that surely did something that hadn't been done yet. There were some other products available that were on the right track, such as OS/2 Warp or NextStep OS... but that Start Menu was the real difference. It ended up getting copied all over, especially with X-Windows in Linux and later with just regular desktops in Linux like Ubuntu, etc. Windows 8 UI changes aren't really revolutionary since those types of touch interfaces already exist in other products. Microsoft just made a copy of them. Unlike Motorola or Samsung, at least MS is smart enough to make enough changes so that they won't get sued by Apple. Square shapes? Win?

It could go two ways... if Ballmer is saying that Windows 8 is a turning point for Microsoft like Windows 95 was, that could be. But Windows 95 turned them from zoom to boom. Windows 8 (so far) looks like the turning point will go from boom to doom.

JorgeA

Posted 11 October 2012 - 11:10 AM

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I'm not too sure I'd be saying that Windows 8 is as important or revolutionary as Windows 95 is warranted. When Windows 95 came out, that surely did something that hadn't been done yet. There were some other products available that were on the right track, such as OS/2 Warp or NextStep OS... but that Start Menu was the real difference. It ended up getting copied all over, especially with X-Windows in Linux and later with just regular desktops in Linux like Ubuntu, etc. Windows 8 UI changes aren't really revolutionary since those types of touch interfaces already exist in other products. Microsoft just made a copy of them. Unlike Motorola or Samsung, at least MS is smart enough to make enough changes so that they won't get sued by Apple. Square shapes? Win?

It could go two ways... if Ballmer is saying that Windows 8 is a turning point for Microsoft like Windows 95 was, that could be. But Windows 95 turned them from zoom to boom. Windows 8 (so far) looks like the turning point will go from boom to doom.

Agreed on everything!

The thing is, as we've pointed out many times in this thread, the Metro/Modern/NCI's tiles and limited windowing capability are basically a throwback to the early days of Windows. How anybody can claim that this is new, let alone revolutionary, is mind-boggling.

If Windws RT wins out and x86 Windows disappears, as some predict, then all we'll have is the Start Screen -- and basically we'll be back in the old Wndows 3.x Program Manager with some enhancements.

The main new thing about Win8 is the touch aspect. But as people attempt to use it on anything other than a tablet (that is, on screens where you have to repeatedly extend your arm), I'll be surprised if we don't start hearing about the ergonomic disaster that "touch" represents.