Skilled nursing and the effect of Medicare Advantage

The Congressional Budget Office has predicted growth in Medicare Advantage plans by about 4% per year, but Dan Mendelson, president of Avalere Health, says his company projects the pace at closer to 6% or 7% per year, according to Skilled Nursing News.

“More and more seniors are voting with their feet,” Mendelson told an audience at the National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care (NIC) Spring Investment Forum in Dallas on Thursday.

Niall Brennan, president of the Health Care Cost Institute, thinks that the proportion of Medicare beneficiaries in MA plans will reach 50% faster than other prognosticators believe, a shift that would have a significant effect on skilled nursing and other post-acute care providers.

“Fifty percent of your potential business in the post-acute care space is being managed by somebody who really cares about the bottom line — and won’t be afraid to try and squeeze people,” Brennan said, contrasting the semi-private MA landscape with the more “passive” reimbursements from traditional Medicare.

The panel discussion came the day after NIC released data showing a record low level of managed Medicare revenue per patient day, which fell to $433 in the fourth quarter of 2017.