If you’re a subscriber to the Bloomberg Terminals, as roughly 350,000 people are (paying $1,600+ per terminal per month), then you may already know there are a half dozen charts on the Manhattan luxury housing market. To be clear, these indices don’t suggest that housing price trends should be presented as a stock ticker.

It’s a good thing too, since the thought of making real estate housing markets equate to stocks was inspired by, and then was crushed by, the housing boom-bubble-bust era 2003-2008.

A stock market moves in the context of nanoseconds rather than weeks or months.

Contract data is not available market-wide and if it were, lags the market by several weeks.

Closed data used in a ticker would lag the market by months.

It implies instant liquidity for real estate holdings.

Not all property types see high volume so their trends are extrapolated (and thus diluted).

It teaches market participants that short term views on real estate holdings are the norm, the way a stock day trader views the market.

While a daily real estate index can be created with relative technical ease, it doesn’t mean it is a good idea. It infers a level of precision that doesn’t exist and an accuracy based on lagging data that is not understood by users.

Those who push the stock ticker idea either didn’t work through the last cycle in real estate, or they didn’t learn from the experience.

We update 3 charts on the Manhattan luxury sales market and 3 for the Manhattan luxury rental market. I have always defined “luxury” as the top 10% of transactions during a period.

Like last week’s Manhattan report, there were lots of records set and it wasn’t simply the influence of high end sales – prices were up across the board in most markets.

Incidentally, the Bloomberg News article that covered record Queens condo sales was the second most emailed story world-wide. It stoked more interest than the finance crisis in Greece and the recent Chinese stock market gyrations. Apparently only “investors with satellites” was a more popular read.

Idea (?) for next quarter: Talk about drones and investors in the Queens housing market.

Always fun to visit with Tom Keene on Bloomberg Surveillance Television – I forgot to post it last week.

Did I tell you I have a lot going on?

It’s a short clip on housing and why we don’t have enough inventory. Bloomberg Intelligence’s Carl Riccadonna spoke along with me – never met him before but he was impressive and best of all, we were in sync.

When I was called by Bloomberg News about a new Bel Air (LA) listing that was asking $500m and another one down the block by the same architect but different developer at around $400 million, my initial reaction was laughter. I wasn’t doubting that there could be a buyer somewhere out there somewhere…but rather at the absurdity of it. It also seems like a strike against it to have a nearby home done by the same architect, no?

As I told a bank executive/client this morning that it’s clearly a strange world when someone builds spec housing for a handful of buyers worldwide and no houses in the local market have ever sold close to half the proposed asking price (including Jeff Greene’s $195 million listing that has been on the market since December.)

At a combined $100k square feet (main house + 3 smaller houses), it will be bigger than “Versailles” a 90k square foot house outside of Orlando, Florida that was the subject of the documentary “Queen of Versailles.”

Was asked to guest host this morning for the 7-8am hour on Bloomberg TV’s Surveillance. Tom Keene, Scarlet Fu and Adam Johnson team up for a must-watch show every morning.

In the first clip we talk Manhattan Luxury market problems and records. In the second clip we banter about the bendable iPhone Plus and housing as an investment. These two articles likely prompted my invite:

NYC Luxury-Condo Buyers Await New Towers as Sales Slow [Bloomberg News]
NYC’s Most Expensive Condo to Be Listed at $130 Million [Bloomberg News]

Got to guest host an hour (6am to 7am) of Bloomberg Television’s Surveillance with Tom Keene, Scarlett Fu and Adam Johnson to talk housing. The above is just a couple of minutes of the hour (yes, you’re spared). We spoke about Case Shiller, New Home Sales, biting in World Cup Soccer, my fireman son using a GoPro in fires and LeBron/Carmelo’s real worth among other things. Like I said, we did talk housing.

Adam brought up a great point – while the economy is always characterized as 70% consumer driven, 16% of that is actually health care spending so the overall number is really 54%.

Very smart conversations (the topic of biting included). Always fun to join them.

This morning, I got to join Tom Keene, Adam Johnson and Cristina Alesci on Bloomberg TV’s Surveillance to talk housing for the 6am to 7am hour. Definitely worth getting up at 4am to make into the studio. No, really!

Covered a lot of ground this morning on the show. Here’s another clip.

After all the hoopla over the recent $147M sale in The Hamptons, I compiled a list of the highest priced sales around the world I could think of. It’s not comprehensive since all the sales are in the US or UK, and there are a few out there that haven’t closed yet.

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics as a guest on Bloomberg Television points out some key issues relating to housing and the economy. It’s a great quick overview on how housing fits into the economic recovery equation. So much for a “soft handoff,” the idea of the housing moving from dependency on low mortgage rate to thriving on a stronger economy. The ideas being projected here are that the economy may improve without housing’s help.

“It is not quite as important as the fed seems to think.”
“I sometimes say the fed is almost as obsessed with housing as the labor market.”

“I’m not convinced it is absolutely essential that housing keeps charging upwards in order for the rest of the economy to grow.”

“It’s a relatively small share of gdp now in terms of housing construction and even when you add in the retail stuff related to housing.”

“It is important to sentiment.”

“They were ready to dismiss it as something temporary and clearly the worries are more deeper.”

“Mortgage rates, if they rise further as the economy picks up, housing will be under further pressure.”

“It is a paradox that the stronger the rest of the economy gets and the more worried the market gets about the fed raising rates, the higher 10 year yields will go and mortgage rates and potentially the housing market will get weaker.”

“This is a three or four year process to get back to normal.”

“Housing unfortunately will be a necessary casualty.”

“My guess is that that’s the way the fed’s thinking evolves great if we see the economy strengthening brother that housing is weakening, i think they will have to live with that and stand up and say it’s a price we have to pay in order to get the rest of the economy moving.”

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About Jonathan Miller

Jonathan Miller is President and CEO of Miller Samuel Inc., a real estate appraisal and consulting firm he co-founded in 1986. He is a state-certified real estate appraiser in New York and Connecticut, performing court testimony as an expert witness in various local, state and federal courts. He holds the Counselors of Real Estate (CRE) and Certified Relocation Professional (CRP) designations. He is an Appraiser “A” Member of the Real Estate Board of New York and a member of Relocation Appraisers and Consultants, Inc.Learn More...

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