Brady holds slim lead over Quinn

Voters don't know much about Republican governor candidate Bill Brady,
but they prefer him by a slim margin over Gov. Pat Quinn, a Democrat
they dislike, a new Tribune/WGN-TV poll shows.

Half of those surveyed disapprove of the sitting governor's job
performance in the 19 months since he replaced the scandal-ridden Rod
Blagojevich. Only 26 percent have a favorable impression of Quinn. And
70 percent of those surveyed don't like how Quinn has fared on his
hallmark issue of reforming government.

By contrast, four in 10 voters hold no opinion of Brady, a veteran
lawmaker from downstate Bloomington. And just 19 percent have an
unfavorable view of him.

If anything, the poll results indicate why Quinn's new round of Chicago
television ads attacking his major rival use the tagline "Who is this
guy?"

Brady collected 37 percent to Quinn's 32 percent support, while another
19 percent were undecided in the poll of 600 likely registered voters
conducted Aug. 28 through Wednesday. Former Democratic lieutenant
governor nominee Scott Lee Cohen, who's now running as an independent
for the top post, had 4 percent, and Green Party candidate Rich Whitney
and Libertarian Party contender Lex Green each had 2 percent. The
survey's error margin was plus or minus 4 percentage points.

The poll shows Quinn still has time to try to define Brady in voters'
minds if he can muster enough money. But the governor also faces the
challenge of reversing widespread voter unhappiness with his job
performance.

Only 28 percent of those surveyed say they like what Quinn has done
since he took over following the impeachment and removal of Blagojevich
after his December 2008 arrest on federal corruption charges. That's
down 11 percentage points from a year ago. More than half of voters who
call themselves independents and one-third of voters who say they're
Democrats dislike what Quinn has done as governor.

One major problem for Quinn is his support among African-American
voters, a key Democratic constituency. Though the governor held a 54
percent to 10 percent advantage over Brady among black voters surveyed,
nearly a quarter were undecided. And just as many African-Americans
liked Quinn's job performance as disliked it: 38 percent.

Quinn has been a fixture on the Illinois political stage for three
decades, viewed by the establishment as an outsider gadfly most of that
time. Among those surveyed, 42 percent have an unfavorable view of
Quinn and 30 percent expressed no opinion. Brady was viewed favorably by
28 percent of the state's voters; 40 percent still haven't formed an
opinion.

Despite Brady's social conservatism in an Illinois GOP long split along
ideological lines, the poll found Republicans much more unified behind
their nominee's candidacy than Democrats are behind Quinn. Brady had the
backing of three out of four Republicans, while Quinn had just 56
percent support among Democratic voters.

Though Quinn may be the recipient of what has revealed itself nationally
as overall unhappiness toward politicians, some of his efforts in
office have not been received warmly by voters.

Only about a third of voters support Quinn's call for an income tax
increase to help offset the state's massive $13 billion deficit. Brady's
plan for unspecified budget cuts and opposition to higher taxes was
backed by 46 percent, even though the state's shortfall is equal to
about half of Illinois' annual operating budget, and independent
analysts question whether cuts alone will solve the problem.

More telling, barely half of Democrats say they support Quinn's call for
higher taxes, while a quarter of them side with Republican Brady, who
has said he won't detail his proposed budget cuts until after the Nov. 2
election.

At the same time, more voters back Brady's call for more widespread
business tax cuts to spur job creation than get behind Quinn's reliance
on passage of the state's first public works construction program in
more than a decade.

But a telling sign for Quinn may be voter reaction to one of his most
recurring themes — that he worked to restore trust in state government
following the Blagojevich scandal. Under Quinn, lawmakers enacted the
first-ever campaign-donation limits, though some criticized them for
having loopholes. The General Assembly also agreed to put on the
November ballot a proposed constitutional amendment allowing a limited
form of recall of a governor.

Yet 70 percent of the state's voters said they don't believe Quinn has
done enough to curb corruption in Illinois government, including nearly
six of 10 Democratic voters and about three-quarters of those who
classify themselves as independents.

The results of the survey coincide with the kickoff of Illinois' fall
general election campaign, a season politically charged with ethical
scandal and economic malaise following heavily contested February
primaries that left both nominees bruised.

Quinn narrowly survived a Democratic challenge from Comptroller Dan
Hynes, who criticized the governor for a controversial cost-cutting
prisoner early release program. Quinn said he was unaware of the program
and canceled it, but kept his prisons director on the job until he
resigned last week.

The governor also dumped a Blagojevich-appointed inspector general just
as the watchdog recommended discipline against Quinn's chief of staff
for improperly sending three campaign e-mails from a state account.
Quinn denied the inspector general's dismissal was retribution.

But it has been Quinn's inability to stabilize the state's financial
situation — allowing a Democratic-controlled legislature to largely
dictate the terms under which Illinois government is running a $13
billion debt with $5 billion in unpaid bills — that has raised questions
about his leadership.

Since taking office, Quinn backed several failed plans to raise the
state income tax, with varying amounts of tax relief for lower-income
workers. Quinn still maintains an income tax is needed and said he will
push for one after the election.

Brady had been considered a long shot to win the Republican nomination,
but he defeated his Senate colleague, Kirk Dillard, of Hinsdale, by 193
votes. Still, Brady was the first choice of only about 20 percent of GOP
primary voters in a crowded field.

Despite Quinn's gaffes, Brady's general election campaign has hardly
been smooth. Shortly after the election, he sponsored hot-button
legislation to ban same-sex marriages and civil unions and allow the
mass euthanasia of companion animals. He later handed those off to
another Republican senator.

Brady has used his campaign to focus on his fiscal conservatism rather
than his social conservatism in promoting a theme of private-sector job
creation to help rescue the state's economy, believing pocketbook issues
are the top concern of the state's voters.

The millionaire real estate developer also has faced criticism over his
votes in the legislature to help spur development near property he owned
in central Illinois and for using tax laws to legally avoid paying
federal income taxes the past two years.

All 50 aldermen on the Chicago City Council had to file paperwork earlier this year detailing their outside income and gifts. The Tribune took that ethics paperwork and posted the information here for you to see. You can search by ward number or alderman's last name.

The Cook County Assessor's office has put together lists of projected median property tax bills for all suburban towns and city neighborhoods. We've posted them for you to get a look at who's paying more and who's paying less.

Past posts

Clout has a special meaning in Chicago, where it can be a noun, a verb or an adjective. This exercise of political influence in a uniquely Chicago style was chronicled in the Tribune cartoon "Clout Street" in the early 1980s. Clout Street, the blog, offers an inside look at the politics practiced from Chicago's City Hall to the Statehouse in Springfield, through the eyes of the Tribune's political and government reporters.