Why I Have Faith in Amaro

The title may come as a shock to you as I was constantly deriding GM Ruben Amaro during the off-season, particularly when he signed Raul Ibanez to a three-year contract. But I actually have faith in him as the trading deadline approaches and the race for Roy Halladay heads into the homestretch. I don’t have confidence in Amaro actually landing Halladay, of course, as there are a lot of factors well out of his control, but I have confidence that, if a deal is made, the prospects given up won’t come back to haunt the Phillies in the future.

Why?

Have a look at all of the trades the Phillies have made since 2003. Keep a special eye on players that were “prospects” at the time.

As you can see from the list, the Phillies haven’t given up prospects that have turned into impact Major League contributors.

I perused the list and extracted as many names as I remember spending significant time at the Major League level. Then, I found how many Wins Above Replacement (WAR) they contributed with their new team(s). The results are not so good for the teams that opened their doors to the Phillies’ prospects.

Carlos Silva has been the most valuable prospect the Phillies have traded away judging by both gross and average WAR. Marlon Byrd and Gavin Floyd look to stick around in the Majors for a while. Out of the 14 recognizable names, only two or three have made any kind of Major League impact and none are superstars.

Considering the way the Phillies have drafted since, oh, I don’t know, around 1998, you have to conclude that upper management really knows how to evaluate prospects. Chase Utleys and Cole Hamelses don’t just grow on trees, you know.

While Pat Gillick is out of his role as GM, and Mike Arbuckle is with Kansas City, and who knows how many scouts have shifted around, it’s clearly not the same group of guys who brought you Utley and Hamels and Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard. But more likely, the success on prospects stems from an organizational philosophy, one that is likely to endure through the Ruben Amaro tenure.

So, if it turns out that the Phillies don’t end up getting Roy Halladay from the Blue Jays because Amaro didn’t want to give up Kyle Drabek, I’m fine with that. That tells me that something about Drabek really stands out to the Phillies upper management and scouts, and you have to respect that — it’s respect they’ve earned over the last ten years.

Having said all this, I’m confident in two things:

If Amaro does make a trade for Halladay, history suggests that the Phillies know exactly who they’re giving up. These players likely will not become solid Major League regulars.

If Amaro doesn’t make a trade, the players other teams wanted that the Phillies wouldn’t relent are really something special. Remember that around five years ago, Ryan Howard was in trade rumors for players like Ted Lilly (then of the Jays) and Kris Benson (then of the Pirates), but the trigger was never pulled by then-GM Ed Wade.

Overall, the Phillies have actually done very well in trades, even under Ed Wade, believe it or not.

Context is important in judging trades, as you may view the Abreu trade (executed by Pat Gillick) as a complete loss when it was in reality a complete salary dump. There aren’t any trades where you’re exclaiming, “Jesus! The Phillies got swindled!”

Heading into the last week of the month of July, I’m very confident that the Phillies will make decisions that best benefit the organization. And that may not include a trade for Roy Halladay, as hard as that is to believe among us lay people.

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3 comments

A. Lindner

I read your interesting article about Amaro and trades. There are two trades I would like to know more about.
When Curt Simmons arm gave out, he went to St Louis and was with them when they won the World Series. His record against the Phillies was 17-3. Did the Phillies get anything for him.
Also, when Roberto Clemente was in the Dodger organization, Branch Rickey moved to Pittsburgh and soon after, Clemente was also in Pittsburgh thru a rule 5 draft. Any comments on either of these situations.
Thanks, A. Lindner