Transdniestria's election, round two

New man, old problem

TIME was when Russia's writ ran long and strong in Transdniestria: political analysis consisted chiefly of working out where the political and other largesse was being distributed. Not any more. On Sunday, voters in the self-proclaimed republic inflicted a humiliating defeat on Moscow's favoured candidate for the presidency. In the final round of voting, Anatoly Kaminsky, whose Renewal party enjoys the backing of Moscow, got just 19.67 per cent of the vote. Yevgeny Shevchuk, an independent candidate, garnered an overwhelming 73.88 per cent. Igor Smirnov, the long-serving strongman president, dropped out after coming third in the first round two weeks ago.

The 47-year-old victor, who not too many years ago was a hard-partying fixture of Seven Fridays and the Cherry Club, late night haunts in Tiraspol, the capital, is widely seen as the candidate of the province's disaffected young, who are fed up with a state of affairs that locks the province's 500,000 people in a time-warped world of red stars and Lenin statues, and giving them passports that no other country recognises

He told Reuters that his focus would be on improving relations with neighbouring Moldova and Ukraine, adding: “My first task will be to work with our neighbours to ensure free movement of people and goods.”

The result takes Transdniestria into uncharted territory: since breaking away from Moldova in 1992, the mainly Russian-speaking region has been dominated by Mr Smirnov, who ran the region's largest metallurgical plant before the break-up of the Soviet Union turned him into the champion of the Russian minority in Moldova against what he claimed was ethno-nationalism by the majority Romanian-speaking population.

It has been clear for some time that Moscow was losing patience with the 70-year-old Mr Smirnov, a peppery and volatile character fond of Black Sobranie cigarettes and salty jokes. It had earlier flirted with Mr Shevchuk, but to no avail. In this election it clearly wanted Mr Kaminsky, promising some $300m to the cash-strapped province to emphasise the point.

Now, according to Kálmán Mizsei, who until this year was the European Union's envoy charged with finding a resolution to the conflict between Moldova and Transdnistria, the EU needs to embrace Mr Shevchuk. “He is a moderniser, and he took personal risks to get to this point,” he said. Mr Shevchuk was an ally of Mr Smirnov until 2009, when he resigned from his post as speaker of the Supreme Soviet, the province's parliament, in protest, he says, against corrupt electoral practices.

The subtext, of course, is that, the more support Mr Shevchuk receives from Brussels, which is in a position to put pressure on the government in Chișinău, Moldova's capital, the more room he will have to manoeuvre against Moscow, which supports the province financially and guarantees its de facto independence by stationing 1,500 troops there.

It would be a great coup for Mr Shevchuk, Mr Mizsei suggests, if he succeeds in re-establishing railway links between Moldova and Transnistria, a 2010 promise which Chișinău has yet to deliver on. That would help Transdniestria (a narrow strip of land between the Dniester river and the Ukrainian border, which contains most of the erstwhiel industrial base of the former Moldavian Soviet Socialist Republic) export its excellent cognacs and textiles. And this is an area where Brussels could apply judicious pressure.

Progress is likely to be slow, and nobody , least of all Mr Shevchuk, expects settlement of the conflict over the province any time soon. He told Itar-Tass: “Russia is a giant country, a peacekeeper-country that protects our citizens and provides aid to Transdniestri. A key priority in my foreign policy will be building stronger ties with Russia, with which we plan to reach a higher level of cooperation.”

Moscow is already looking to the future, smoothing over the snub it has received from the province's voters by saying it is satisfied with any outcome that sees the back of Mr Smirnov.

But what is clear is that voters have done what they can towards resolving one of the region's longest-running conflicts.

Thank you for your input and clarifications. Based on how the "Economist" wrote in the past (with majority of comments shedding negative light on Russia), it is no surprise that the above information bears the same issues.

Hopefully, the new Transdniestrian government will make better efforts in the area of international public communication and the economic change will come to this beautiful region filled with great people.