This is expected to cover the next decade and could be announced as soon as next month, in time for the 70th anniversary of the creation of the NHS.

It has been announced that an ‘NHS assembly’ will be set up where national and local stakeholders can discuss progress on achieving plans for the NHS’s future.

The Treasury is believed to want to keep average rises at about 2% a year, but other ministers are arguing for more, the BBC understands. Health and Social Care Secretary Jeremy Hunt is believed to want at least 3% a year.

As those discussions continue, the IFS and Health Foundation have revealed the findings of their review, commissioned by the NHS Confederation, which represents NHS trusts.

It warned the ageing population and rising number of people with long-term conditions, such as diabetes and heart disease, meant the health service needed more than it had been getting in the past decade.

In recent years the annual rises once inflation is taken into account have been limited to just over 2%.

But continuing in this vein would lead to a continued deterioration in performance, the report warned.

Instead, it said, 5% extra was needed in the next five years, and then just under 4% for the following decade if it was going to improve.

That would work out at an average of 4% a year over the period, while 3.3% would simply maintain services.

On top of that, extra money would also be needed to fund council-run social care for the elderly.

That would mean spending as a proportion of national income rising from 8.4% currently to 11.4%.

Ministers still wrestling with long-term cash needs

By Laura Kuenssberg, BBC political editor

Image copyrightPAImage caption Theresa May is grappling with ministers over NHS funding

There’s no coincidence at all that the independent number crunchers, the Institute for Fiscal Studies and the Health Foundation, have come forward with calls for significantly more cash for NHS England today.

It matters right now because behind closed doors in Whitehall, the Department of Health, Downing Street and the Treasury are grappling to agree, not just how much the NHS really needs, but also what the government can really afford.

Any eventual long term settlement involves extra billions of taxpayers’ money – but if the government falls short, there’s a heavy potential cost.