Nour Eldeen Al-Hammoury

Last quote by Nour Eldeen Al-Hammoury

The first move has been made. We now know that four major players want to work together to look at supply. We were not expecting a reduction in supplies, not from this meeting, but it sets the agenda going forward. Everyone knows that, at the moment, there is no alternative to oil, so looking at supply is the best way to get a correct market price.feedback

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This page is completely dedicated to what Nour Eldeen Al-Hammoury has to say. All of Nour Eldeen Al-Hammoury’s quotes are organized here by date and topic. The most recent quote attributed to Nour Eldeen Al-Hammoury came from an article called Saudi Arabia and Russia agree oil output freeze but only if others do the same: “So this is a positive signal to the market. I am also not surprised that the prices have dropped today, but we will be looking for further cooperation and action by OPEC and by most of the producers.”.

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Nour Eldeen Al-Hammoury quotes

Extending the QE expiration date further might not have that big negative impact on the euro as there is no new money supply from the ECB. Therefore, the euro might stabilise for a while. Finally, keeping the current policy unchanged would be a positive factor for the euro as everyone was pricing in further easing measures by the ECB. Therefore, the euro may stabilise ahead of the Federal Reserve decision.feedback

The EGX30 Index is still under pressure following the recent sell-off in global equities. We don't think the Central Bank decision is good news for the market, especially as the uncertainty remains toward global equities. Moreover, the declining Egyptian pound with the continuous global economic slowing down would not be good news for corporate earnings.feedback

It's definitely possible. As we know Q3 has been the worst in years, which of course leads companies to cut their estimates, especially in terms of global demand and earnings estimates as well. However, we still need to wait for further evidence and to look at the Q3 earnings. Estimates can be right or wrong. Moreover, we shouldn't forget that capital investment companies around the world cut their estimates and also took the decision to lay off some of their workforce, which also fuels market uncertainty.feedback

For the moment, the uncertainty mode is still controlling the markets, especially after the release of the US jobs report last week. The outlook remains unclear for the next few months, as there are no solid economic numbers on which to build estimates. However, the situation that we have seen in Q3 of this year, might still have a negative effect on Q4. So traders need to be very cautious in the coming weeks.feedback

Gold usually rallies on two factors, uncertainty and inflation fears. In the past few months, uncertainty over the global outlook has kept bids on gold for some time, but it has only stopped the sharp decline in gold, which happened this year. As for inflation, the estimates for future inflation are sharply on the downside and there's no hedge bid in this situation. When inflation estimates improve again, gold may benefit more than now.feedback

Of course, the Fed is not in a good position right now. This is also what we noted a year ago, that the Fed might not raise rates. The Fed delayed the rate hike many times from March to June to September and now September is likely to be delayed until December. Therefore, the statement is very important and will be key for forthcoming trends.feedback

To explain, the Gold/Oil Ratio is a way of showing how many barrels of gold you can buy when you own an ounce of gold. The pattern that we have seen last week looks like the pattern that we saw in January. Last week the Gold/Oil Ratio reached the same level of January around of 25.30 before declining again, leading oil to rise significantly on Thursday and Friday.feedback

Meanwhile most of the fundamentals are already priced in, as we have said in previous episodes of the show, therefore we need to look at new fundamentals and catalysts that could drive the prices in the coming weeks. But for now, all we can say is that signs of stabilization are growing gradually.feedback

Its possible to say that the panic is over or has at least eased, especially as most of the global equities trimmed their loses incurred on that Black Monday. However, the current rally seems to be cautious and it's very important to keep an eye on the economic releases ahead, especially those from the US and Asia, which will be the key in the coming days and weeks.feedback

In the meantime, and after the Bank of England statement that the rate hike will be data dependent, the upcoming economic releases will have a notable and significant impact on the markets and the British pound much more than before, as positive figures would allow investors and traders to start pricing in a rate hike by the Bank of England – which might be the same as what happened to the US dollar this year.feedback

Of course, lifting the sanctions on Iran opens the door for opportunities all over the world, not only for middle east countries. But it's worth mentioning that the geographical proximity is one of the positive factors for UAE. Moreover, the deal between Iran and the West may ease fears of geopolitical tension in the region. Therefore, trade, business and financial opportunities are likely to be significant between Iran and the region.feedback

The global markets have priced in such move. However, we are looking at the bonds markets lately and so far traders seem not sure that the Fed will be able to raise the rates and the US 10 Yr yields remain lower despite all the talks of raising the rates next year. Furthermore, the housing market does not support such a move anytime soon.feedback

Quotes by Nour Eldeen Al-Hammoury

So this is a positive signal to the market. I am also not surprised that the prices have dropped today, but we will be looking for further cooperation and action by OPEC and by most of the producers.feedback

Moreover, I would like to point out here that the Japanese Yen which we kept on mentioning in the past few weeks, remains a safe haven investment and the USD/JPY declined sharply to a level of almost 120 and we are still favoring such currency.feedback

A decline of the yuan might be an indirect message to the Federal Reserve not to raise rates this week. China may start devaluing its currency faster than before in order to increase its goods competitiveness to support its trade balance surplus which eased notably recently.feedback

As we noticed throughout the year, when the Federal Reserve meeting approaches, the market starts to decline sharply as the estimates were higher for a rate hike in every meeting. In return, global markets tumble including stocks and commodities. We saw how oil declined sharply side by side with equities and even the US dollar declined. This is a sign that traders might be liquidating their positions and staying away from the market ahead of the Federal Reserve's uncertain decision.feedback

One of the reasons of course is Oil. Brent Crude closed below 40$ for the first time in years, moreover, the news about imposing VAT taxes in the region had a notable impact on equities. Declining global equities which also weighed on MENA equities across the board in addition to the fears from the Federal Reserve potential rate hike this week.feedback

Beginning with the West Texas Crude price; traders should keep an eye on 40 dollars, which remains a solid support and we haven't seen any weekly close below that support. However, if we break that support then we could see more downside. As for Brent Crude, the level of 42.2 dollars is also a significant support level, which was seen earlier this year, a close below that level might lead to further downward pressure.feedback

Cutting the deposit rate further will of course increase the pressure on the euro. However, this doesn't mean that the euro will reach parity with the dollar very soon, but it might get close to it. If the ECB increases the current QE programme, the euro is likely to drop significantly and quickly to parity with the US dollar, and this might occur within a few days.feedback

As we noticed before, whenever any of the global central banks eased their policies, this has always had a positive impact on global equities including MENA, therefore regional equities may go up for a while.feedback

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