by Eric Prisbell, USA TODAY Sports

by Eric Prisbell, USA TODAY Sports

You don't have to be a grizzled and shrewd college basketball observer to pick a winning NCAA tournament bracket this season. Anyone with a $5 entry fee (all in good fun, right?) and a dream has a chance during what could be the most unpredictable three weeks in the 75-year history of the event. Don't try to pinpoint a Cinderella story in this 68-team tournament because fairytale journeys don't exist anymore. The playing field is level, with more teams than ever, from more conferences than ever, harboring realistic hopes of playing deep into March.

Four national title-winning coaches ‚?? Syracuse's Jim Boeheim, Duke's Mike Krzyzewski, Kentucky's John Calipari and Florida's Billy Donovan ‚?? told USA TODAY Sports that they believe at least 30 teams in this year's field, nearly half the teams competing, have a legitimate chance to reach the Final Four, a higher number than ever before.

In a season defined by parity, it is only fitting that Gonzaga of the lightly regarded West Coast Conference joined power conference teams Louisville (Big East), the tournament's top overall seed, Kansas (Big 12) and Indiana (Big Ten) as No. 1 seeds. The twice-beaten Bulldogs earned the No. 1 seed over the ACC's two best teams: Miami, which won the ACC regular season and tournament title; and Duke, which lost just one game all season without forward Ryan Kelly in the lineup.

Consider the perspective of North Carolina coach Roy Williams, who saw no more than five teams last season with a legitimate chance to win the national title.

"This year," Williams said, "there are probably 12 to 14 teams that have a legitimate chance to win the national title ‚?¶ The word upset is so overused it is ridiculous."

Among those dozen are elite, battle-tested teams such as Louisville and Kansas, both of which blazed through their respective conference tournaments. But the group also includes less obvious choices: the Mountain West Conference's New Mexico, the best team in the top-ranked RPI league; and Saint Louis, the class of the top-heavy Atlantic 10.

As it selected 37 at-large teams to join 31 automatic qualifiers, the committee rewarded the Mountain West and Atlantic 10, which have a combined 10 teams in the tournament. San Diego State coach Steve Fisher says as many as three MWC teams have a realistic shot at making the Final Four.

Few should be surprised if an Atlantic 10 squad reaches Atlanta. Two of its five teams in this tournament, Butler and VCU, have made Final Four appearances in the past three years.

In all, 11 teams from outside power conferences earned at-large slots. And in another nod toward the strength of teams from outside traditional leagues, the final four at-large berths went to teams outside power conferences, including a bid for Middle Tennessee State, which failed to win the Sun Belt Conference tournament.

Among those left out were defending national champion Kentucky, one of the sport's blue blood programs, after an uneven season that included a season-ending injury to Nerlens Noel on Feb. 12 and a deflating SEC tournament loss against Vanderbilt.

"When there are 68 teams and you don't get in," CBS analyst Steve Kerr said, "you only have to look in the mirror."

The power of the Big Ten, widely considered the nation's strongest league by a considerable margin, was displayed throughout the bracket. Boeheim believes any one of five Big Ten teams ‚?? Indiana, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio State ‚?? could win the national championship. Among those five, none was seeded worse than No. 5 in their respective region.

Yet there are questions. Will the physical Big Ten teams be worn down after beating one another up throughout a grueling regular season? Indiana and Wisconsin finished 3-3 in their last six games. Michigan State was 3-4 in its last seven games. Michigan was 6-6 in its last 12.

Then there's Ohio State, which won its last eight in a row, including the Big Ten tournament, to vault to a No. 2 seed.

"I don't think there is any consensus favorite across the bracket," CBS broadcaster Clark Kellogg said in a teleconference after the bracket was unveiled.

No clear favorite

What this field lacks is a dominant team in the mold of Kentucky's team last year or North Carolina's 2009 title team.

This tournament could unfold much like it did in 2010. Instead of the best team claiming the national title, the team playing the best for three weeks (Duke) walked away with the championship. Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski said while "individually you could pick some weaknesses" on that title team, "collectively, they really did not have ‚?? I'm not saying they were this powerful team ‚?? but they did not have any weaknesses. They were one."

Or it could play out like it did in 2011, when an irrepressible star, Kemba Walker, carried UConn, which finished ninth in the Big East, to an improbable Big East tournament title and national championship. In this tournament, Georgetown has Otto Porter, who Boeheim says is the best all-around player at his position that he has seen in the Big East. Indiana has two of the top 10 players in the country in Cody Zeller and Victor Oladipo. So does Kansas with shot-blocking center Jeff Withey and redshirt freshman Ben McLemore, who could be a top pick in June's NBA draft.

"I'd rather be a 12 (seed) than an eight or nine," said Kerr, referring to the opportunity to advance further if a team avoids a No. 1 seed for as long as possible in the bracket.

To the coaches, no outcome involving two teams with single-digit seeds should be considered an upset, and few discount a double-digit seed getting to the Final Four for the second time in three seasons. Though 11th-seeded VCU lost in the national semifinals in 2011, Pitino says he could envision a double-digit seed now winning the national championship. What's more, Pitino says if a No. 16 seed is going to beat a No. 1 seed, this is the season it will occur.

Calipari said he sees a double-digit seed winning the national title before a No. 16 seed upsets a No. 1 seed because "you can have a veteran team as a double-digit seed playing a freshmen team, like I had last year, and that could happen‚?¶The whole thing is getting in. It is one of those years."

Rollie Massimino, the coach who led Villanova on one of the most improbable national title journeys in 1985, said that while he would love to see another unlikely champion emerge, he doubts it will occur even during this unpredictable season. The matchups and talent, he says, still favor the top 10 teams in the country.

Maybe so, but the gap between elite teams and everyone else has been closing. Before last season's tournament, a No. 2 seed had lost to a No. 15 seed four times in history. Then it occurred twice last season, with Duke losing to Lehigh and Missouri falling to Norfolk State.

"There are more good teams," Krzyzewski says. "You are not on a super highway between winning and losing. You are on side streets now, the way coaches look at it. The margin between winning and losing is much more narrow this year."

The parity could result in No. 1 seeds losing before the Sweet 16, as two did in 2000, when two No. 8 seeds ‚?? North Carolina and Wisconsin ‚?? reached the Final Four. Or it could deliver memorable buzzer-beaters and unforgettable runs like the 1990 tournament, which was ultimately won by a dominant UNLV team.

If Louisville plays like it did during the final 15 minutes of the Big East tournament championship against Syracuse, during which the Cardinals turned a 16-point deficit into a 17-point victory, they may be difficult to beat. But during this particular tournament, its coach knows nothing is guaranteed.

"I am humble enough at my age to understand that Duke and Missouri had great runs last year, great teams, and they lost in the first round" as No. 2 seeds, Pitino says. "I am not overly confident in anything."