A Forum for discussing emerging smart discoveries and emerging technologies with built-in intelligence or embedded smarts, as well as the new cognitive skills needed to succeed in the smart economy. The Smart Future is already here, just the last page hasn't been written yet! Every advance brings benefits as well as intrusions.
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July 10, 2010

Don't be surprised if one day your refrigerator nags you to lose weight, your phone blocks calls it figures you're too stressed to handle, and your wisecracking car entertains you with pun-filled one liners. Within a decade or two, researchers at Silicon Valley companies and elsewhere predict, consumer gadgets will be functioning like hyper-attentive butlers, anticipating and fulfilling peoples' needs without having to be told. Life would not only be more convenient, it might even last longer: Devices could monitor people's health and step in when needed to help them get better.

"I think it's inevitable," said Michael Freed, an artificial intelligence specialist and program director at Menlo Park, Calif., think tank SRI International, which has been studying the concept for the military. Noting that some of these gadgets already are being developed, he added, "I expect we'll see more soon -- a trickle and then a flood.''

The technology propelling this new generation of personal assistants is a combination of sophisticated sensors and carefully tailored computer software. As envisioned, the machines would adjust their own actions to the preferences and needs of an individual, by analyzing data on the person's past actions and monitoring current behavior with cameras, audio recorders, and other sensors.

Santa Clara, Calif., chipmaker Intel, which has been studying the technology for several years, believes that one day soon the gadgets will have the ability to read their owner's emotions.

While some experts have proposed that face and voice recognition gear be used to detect a person's disposition, Intel has been experimenting with heart monitors and galvanic skin-response sensors. A study it did last year envisioned the gadgets detecting mood swings "while people are driving, singing, chatting with friends, attending a boring meeting and even while going to the dentist."

Others expect household appliances eventually will be designed with human-like personalities. In a study this year that was partly financed by Nissan, researchers at Japan's Hokkaido University experimented with cheery-sounding devices that they imagined one day could serve as "artificial companions for elderly and lonely people" or as pun-spouting car navigation equipment that could "entertain drivers by talking and possibly by joking." Although some gadgets already make assumptions about what people want, such as word processing software that automatically corrects grammar, the devices contemplated by Intel, HP and other companies would be capable of much more sophisticated judgments about a broader array of human needs. That's a complex task -- so difficult that some experts are skeptical the technology will be ready in the near future.

"My guess is that we will get there in time, but it's a little further off than the most ambitious nnouncements from a lot of companies have indicated," said Bob Sloan, who heads the computer science department at the University of Illinois at Chicago. "There are a lot of hard problems to solve."

But other experts say the idea recently has become more practical because of the proliferation of computerized devices, from universal remote controls, MP3 players, air conditioning equipment and microwave ovens to security systems, lawn-sprinkler controllers, exercise equipment and toys. Because many of these devices come with cameras, global positioning systems and other sensors to monitor what's around them, these experts say, it's not hard to imagine them gathering enough data about people to act autonomously on their behalf, assuming the individuals let the gizmos have that authority.

One product that already claims to partly think for its owner is a "personal assistant" app for the iPhone and iPod developed by Siri, a San Jose company Apple bought in April.

Besides being able to recommend a good play, book a taxi and offer helpful reminders, the app -- which responds to verbal queries -- "adapts to your preferences over time," Siri claims. For example, ask it about a good place to eat nearby and it might suggest a certain type of restaurant you have picked before, a company spokesman said. He added that the app also can learn to recognize a person's voice and speaking style, which might make it easier for it to understand what the person is saying on a noisy street. Other products could be on the way soon, said Diane Cook, a researcher at Washington State University, which has an experimental smart house filled with such devices.

"We have companies large and small and in-between visiting us monthly -- IBM, Bosch, Qualcomm -- all wanting to commercialize it, all trying to decide what that first step is, that first niche," she said.

Stanford University operates a similar research lab. When it hosted a workshop on the technology three weeks ago, it attracted interest from Facebook, Google, Honda, Intel, Microsoft, Nokia, Panasonic, Sony and Hewlett-Packard, according to the lab's website.

Hamid Aghajan, who supervises the lab, foresees gadgets knowing enough about their human housemates to select appropriate lighting and music when the people are eating or reading, coaching them on their speaking skills during meetings and connecting them via social networking sites with people the gadgets determine share their interests.

Peter Harwell, a senior researcher at HP, believes such devices could be built into new homes within a decade or so, though he cautions they must operate "in a way that doesn't annoy the user."

One initial application of the technology is expected to be monitoring the elderly in their homes.

Oregon Health & Science University researchers say they have detected the onset of dementia in older people by using smart pill containers that record whether the person takes their medicine and motion sensors that can tell if their walking and dressing slowed, potential early signs of the disease.

Some experts believe it will be possible for a refrigerator with the right sensors to keep track of how much a person eats and to urge them verbally to adjust their calorie intake. And if the person gets seriously sick, these experts say, other gadgets might be able to detect the illness and alert authorities.

Even the military is interested. The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency hopes to develop computerized assistants for commanders that "can reason, learn from experience, be told what to do, explain what they are doing, reflect on their experience and respond robustly to surprise."

All this raises concerns for Eric Goldman, who directs Santa Clara University's High Tech Law Institute. One issue is how to protect the privacy of the information the gadgets accumulate on people. "The more data we gather the more the government is going to want to get its paws on it," he said, adding that lawyers in court cases may try to obtain it, too. There also is no guarantee such a device "will do exactly what we want it to," he warned. "There is always the possibility that the smart agent will go rogue."

But others consider the potential benefits worth pursuing. That includes using the technology to rescue people from uncomfortable situations.

If a person gets a call from someone who stresses them out, according to Intel officials, their savvy phone might automatically switch the caller into a voice message. Another intriguing possibility could arise if the phone notices its owner is extremely tense in a meeting, added Lama Nachman, a researcher at the chipmaker. In that case, it might respond with what she termed an "exit phone call," a bogus ring that gives the person a convenient excuse to leave.

March 24, 2010

I've been compiling a list of qualitative and quantitative foresight (prediction) methods and the total has passed over 50.

New Scientist magazine this week reviews one quantitative method called Bayesian Game Theory, in surprisingly quite an understandable fashion, that even a lay person like me can understand...well maybe not all the math details but the overall workings are quite clear.

They turn to Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, a professor of politics at New York University, who back in 1979 developed a game theory based prediction model, which he calls predictioneering. He says" I can predict events and decisions that involve negotiations, coercion (lies, bluffing, reneging on promises), cooperation or bullying." The model predicts what people will do in "strategic situations" where the outcome also depends on other people's decisions ie domestic politics, foreign policy, geopolitical conflicts, business decisions and social interactions.

New Scientist writes: "

"Over the past 30 years, Bueno de Mesquita has made thousands of predictions about hundreds of issues from geopolitics to personal problems. Overall, he claims, his hit rate is about 90 per cent. So how does he do it?

Examples: Terrorism & Climate Change

Terrorism:

"Bueno de Mesquita recently used it to make a prediction on the political situation in Pakistan. Working with a group of students, he asked how willing the Pakistani government would be to pursue Al-Qaida and Taliban militants in its territory, and how the US government could exert influence on their decision."

In January 2008 the students fed in data on all the players, including the US, Pakistan's then president Pervez Musharraf and other leading Pakistani politicans. Their assumption was that the US would offer foreign aid to persuade Pakistan's leaders to target the terrorists, and Pakistan would try to extract the maximum amount of aid possible from the US.

The model predicted that to get maximum cooperation from Pakistan, the US would need to donate at least $1.5 billion in 2009, double the projected 2008 figure. In return for this Pakistan would pursue the terrorists on a scale of 80 out of 100, but no more. In other words, the leadership would make considerable effort to reduce the terrorist threat but not to completely eliminate it. "The Pakistani government are no fools," explains Bueno de Mesquita. "They know that the money will dry up if Al-Qaida and the Taliban are destroyed. So they will rein the threat in and reduce it, but not utterly destroy it."

The outcome? According to Bueno de Mesquita, the US government authorised $1.5 billion in foreign aid to Pakistan in 2009, and the Pakistani leadership sustained pursuit of the militants at that level. "We have done very well," says Bueno de Mesquita.

Climate Change:

So what of the future? Another of Bueno de Mesquita's recent predictions addresses the future of climate change negotiations up to 2050. Depressingly, he predicts that although the world will negotiate tougher greenhouse gas reductions than in the Kyoto protocol, in practise these are likely to be abandoned as Brazil, India and China rise in power in relation to the European Union and the US."

See: The Man who sees the Future, New Scientist Volume 250 No 2752 March 20,2010, pg 42

February 03, 2010

Pronouncements from the annual WEF in Davos have in the past been reliable early warning signals of things to come.

Could the next terrorist attack on US soil be a wireless one, say security experts. Since 9/11 a slew of personal rights and liberties have been compromised due to safety and security issues. Could similar cyberthreats (real or imagined) erode more of our liberties?

I find some of the proposed internet restrictions & controls disturbing, especially the ideas and actions proposed in story 2 -UN chief calls for treaty to prevent cyber war

Davos, Switzerland (AFP) Jan 29, 2010China, the United States and Russia are among 20 countries locked in a cyberspace arms race and gearing up for possible Internet hostilities, according to the head of web security firm McAfee. Dave DeWalt, chief executive and president of the US firm said the traditional defensive stance of government computer infrastructures has shifted in recent years.

"This movement from a defensive posture to a more offensive posture is just very obvious," he said on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

McAfee said it has identified at least five countries with cyberweapons, including the United States, China, Russia, Israel and France.

DeWalt is not the first to sound alarm bells about cyberwarfare. The UN telecommunications agency chief Hamadoun Toure warned in October that the next world war could take place in cyberspace.

Pointing to the recent attack on Google, DeWalt noted that it illustrated a shift from espionage and attacks on government infrastructure to an offensive on structure that is "commercial in nature."

Google had threatened to pull out of China due to cyberattacks which it claimed originated in the Asian giant. The complaint has escalated into a major diplomatic row.

DeWalt said the attack on Google was "really one of the first government on commercial, and potentially highly sophisticated cyberespionage really focusing in on highly intellectual property companies like Google, Adobe."

The attack, dubbed Operation Aurora, has hit over 30 companies and the number of victim firms could still grow, said DeWalt.

But it was just one of "a series of highly escalated attacks in the last 12 months."

McAfee has seen a "more than 500 percent increase in net new malware" -- harmful software such as spyware, viruses or trojans -- in the past 12 months.

"That's more malware than we have seen in the past five years combined," said DeWalt.

McAfee's latest report compiling a survey of some 600 IT security executives found that 60 percent of those who responded believe representatives of foreign governments were involved in infiltrations of their infrastructure.

Some 36 percent said the United States posed the biggest threat to their infrastructure while 33 percent named China.

The survey also found that attacks are costing 6.3 million dollars a day, or 1.75 billion dollars a year, around the world.

Service outages brought about by attacks on web infrastructure are most costly for the oil and gas sector.

"As nation states and very sophisticated criminal organisations have piled into cyberspace to engage in activities designed to steal secrets or interrupt services, the private sector is increasingly caught in the crossfire," said Stewart Baker, who authored the report.

Despite the potential damage, governments appeared to be lagging behind in taking measures to get private sector to protect their web infrastructure.

Only China appeared to be "developing a relationship with their industry... in getting companies to adopt particular security standards," said Baker, who is a visiting fellow at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

2) UN chief calls for treaty to prevent cyber war

Davos, Switzerland (AFP) Jan 30, 2010 - The world needs a treaty to prevent cyber attacks becoming an all-out war, the head of the main UN communications and technology agency warned Saturday.

International Telcommunications Union secretary general Hamadoun Toure gave his warning at a World Economic Forum debate where experts said nations must now consider when a cyber attack becomes a declaration of war.

With attacks on Google from China a major talking point in Davos, Toure said the risk of a cyber conflict between two nations grows every year.

He proposed a treaty in which countries would engage not to make the first cyber strike against another nation.

"A cyber war would be worse than a tsunami -- a catastrophe," the UN official said, highlighting examples such as attacks on Estonia last year.

He proposed an international accord, adding: "The framework would look like a peace treaty before a war."

Countries should guarantee to protect their citizens and their right to access to information, promise not to harbour cyber terrorists and "should commit themselves not to attack another."

John Negroponte, former director of US intelligence, said intelligence agencies in the major powers would be the first to "express reservations" about such an accord.

Susan Collins, a US Republican senator who sits on several Senate military and home affairs committees, said the prospect of a cyber attack sparking a war is now being considered in the United States.

"If someone bombed the electric grid in our country and we saw the bombers coming in it would clearly be an act of war.

"If that same country uses sophisticated computers to knock out our electricity grid, I definitely think we are getting closer to saying it is an act of war," Collins said.

Craig Mundie, chief research and strategy officer for Microsoft, said "there are at least 10 countries in the world whose internet capability is sophisticated enough to carry out cyber attacks ... and they can make it appear to come from anywhere."

"The Internet is the biggest command and control centre for every bad guy out there," he said.

The head of online security company McAfee told another Davos debate Friday that China, the United States, Russia, Israel and France are among 20 countries locked in a cyberspace arms race and gearing up for possible Internet hostilities.

Mundie and other experts have said there is a growing need to police the internet to clampdown on fraud, espionage and the spread of viruses.

"People don't understand the scale of criminal activity on the internet. Whether criminal, individual or nation states, the community is growing more sophisticated," the Microsoft executive said.

"We need a kind of World Health Organisation for the Internet," he said.

"When there is a pandemic, it organises the quarantine of cases. We are not allowed to organise the systematic quarantine of machines that are compromised."

He also called fo a "driver's license" for internet users.

"If you want to drive a car you have to have a license to say that you are capable of driving a car, the car has to pass a test to say it is fit to drive and you have to have insurance."

Andre Kudelski, chairman of Kudelski Group, said that a new internet might have to be created forcing people to have two computers that cannot connect and pass on viruses. "One internet for secure operations and one internet for freedom."

In a related story:

3) Britain's MI5 accuses China of bugging businesses: report

London (AFP) Jan 31, 2010 - Britain's domestic intelligence service has accused China of bugging British business executives using memory sticks which provide access to users' computers, The Sunday Times reported. MI5 also believes China is setting up "honeytraps" in an attempt to blackmail compromised executives into betraying commercial secrets, the newspaper said. It alleges that a leaked MI5 document describes how undercover Chinese intelligence officers have approached British businessmen at trade fairs with the offer of "gifts" and "lavish hospitality". The gifts, such as cameras and memory sticks, have been found to contain electronic 'Trojan' bugs which allow Chinese intelligence services remote access to any computer they are connected to, the newspaper said. MI5 also accuses China of employing electronic hacking to obtain sensitive commercial information and believes the Chinese government "represents one of the most significant espionage threats to the UK", the report adds. "Chinese intelligence services have also been known to exploit vulnerabilities such as sexual relationships and illegal activities to pressurise individuals to co-operate with them," the 14-page MI5 document says, according to the newspaper. China has repeatedly denied spying on Britain. The newspaper said China's London embassy did not comment on the allegations.

January 31, 2010

Scanning through some of the more interesting Davos WEF workshop titles, we get a sense of the concerns of world leaders. And it sets the tone for the global outlook in 2010 and 2011 for bankers, politicians and business people.

I highlighted in red some of the titles that caught my eye. For a full program click the link below.

January 06, 2010

(Graphic from New Scientist) Just sit back and think for a moment: how long has it been since you read your last email? Scanned your last last Twitter? Dispatched you previous text message? Updated Facebook or Linked In?

With the annual homage to the Mecca of consumer materialism -the consumer electronics show (CES) in Vegas this month ,it may be appropriate to ask the bigger social question

Is technology controlling you and your life or vise a versa?

Yair Amichai-Hamburger offers a provocative opinion piece on this month’s issue of New Scientist (Dec 27, 2009 volume 2739) titled “Shiny unhappy People” in the print version or “Free yourself from oppression by technology.” In the online version

From his Tetrad model, Marshall McLuhan reminds us that technology has four simultaneous impacts on society...and in this case, here's my take on the social impacts and secondary consequences of communication technologies

1)Something gets enhanced? (materialism, consumption, depression, a stecato culture of information, continuous interruption, a middle class that's under the influence of mass cultural and perpetual distraction, fragmentation of reactive efforts, sense of being overwhelmed and not knowing were to turn, public passivity, digital version of divide to conquer etc )

Amichai-Hamburger touches on all 4 of these social impacts- enhancement, retrieval, obsolescence, and reversal.

Here’s a recap and summary of his key points

"Are we being served by these technological wonders or have we become enslaved by them?"

We living in an"age of melancholy" coined by psychologist Daniel Goleman to describe our era. "People today experience more depression than previous generations, despite the technological wonders that help us every day. It might be because of them."

"Our lifestyles are increasingly driven by technology. Phones, computers and the internet pervade our days. There is a constant, nagging need to check for texts and email, to update Facebook, MySpace and LinkedIn profiles, to acquire the latest notebook or 3G cellphone. "

"For many of us it is becoming increasingly difficult to control the impulse to check our inbox yet again or see whether the headlines have changed since we last looked. [...] In many homes, the computer has become the centre of attention; it is the medium through which we work and play."

"How did this arise, and what is it doing to us? In this era of mass consumption, we are surrounded by advertising that urges us to find fulfillment through the acquisition of material goods. As a result, adults and children increasingly believe that in order to belong and feel good about themselves, they must own the latest model or gadget."

"Yet research has shown that people who place a high value on material goals are unhappier than those who are less materialistic. Materialism is also associated with lower self-esteem, greater narcissism, greater tendency to compare oneself unfavorably with other people, less empathy and more conflict in relationships."

"People who place a high value on material goals are unhappier than those who are less materialistic "--N.B. this is supported by other studies that show consumers value "experiential events" over "material goods"--Walter Derzko

"Our culture also constantly reminds us that time is money. This implies a need for total efficiency, which is why we are allowing laptop computers and mobile phones to blur the separation between work and home. As one unhappy human-resource manager in a high-tech company put it: "They gave me a mobile phone so they can own me 24 hours a day, and a portable computer, so my office is now with me all the time - I cannot break out of this pressure." Sound familiar?"

"Psychologists generally believe that the lack of a clear separation between work and home significantly damages our relationships with loved ones. It also predisposes us to focus on the here and now at the expense of long-term goals."

"By imposing these twin pressures, modern society is in danger of swapping standard of living for quality of life. We need ways to help recover those increasingly large parts of our lives that we have ceded to technology, to regain mastery over technology and learn to use it in a healthy and positive way."

Amichai-Hamburger offers a 4 point prescription to reagin self-control based on self-determination theory, developed by psychologists Edward Deci and Richard Ryan of the University of Rochester in New York state. It identifies three vital elements of healthy personal development and functioning that can be used to recalibrate our relationship with technology. Amichai-Hamburger thenadds a 4th point below.

1) "The first is autonomy - the feeling that our activities are self-chosen and self-endorsed. When we feel in control, we are able to organize our priorities and place effective boundaries around them. But when we feel we have insufficient control, it leaves us vulnerable to our impulses and causes us to abdicate decisions to other people. It is easy to see how technology undermines autonomy, but also how to regain it. This may be as simple as switching off mobile phones during meals and family time, setting aside specific times to answer emails, and being available only when we choose to be."

2) "We also need a sense of competence, a belief that our actions are effective. In this respect our relationship with technology is complex, because many of us feel competent when we deal with an email, when we have the newest BlackBerry, or because 50 people enjoyed the holiday snaps we posted on Facebook. "

3) "Relatedness:our need to feel close to other people. Technology is a threat to this. Devices like the iPod can be used to create a bubble that disconnects us from normal human interactions, and while some virtual relationships may be truly meaningful, in many cases they come at the expense of real-world connections. Psychologists have found that the pivotal difference between happy and unhappy people is the presence or absence of rich and satisfying social relationships. Spending meaningful time with friends, family and partners is necessary for happiness."

Many North American's have lost this, which is why seemingly poorer nations tend to be happier --Walter Derzko.

4) "Critical thinking. In today's world, where we are potentially available 24/7 to absorb messages from well-honed advertisements, it is vital that we know how to analyze and evaluate their validity - and to neutralize them where necessary."

Autonomy, competence, relatedness and critical thinking are the best ways to establish a balanced approach to technology, and so enhance our well-being.

Intersting question to ponder...will Eastern & Asian cultures (India, China etc) turn to North American ideals of materialism & consumption to find fullfillment in life as they develop economically or to something else?--Walter Derzko

N.B Yair Amichai-Hamburger is director of the Research Center for Internet Psychology at the Sammy Ofer School of Communications, the Interdisciplinary Center in Herzliya, Israel.

November 01, 2009

UPDATE: HYFNs have been approved for manufacturing as Fullerene Water Solution (FWS) drink in Ukraine by Ministry of Health as of Nov 2010. The first nanotech based health drink in the world. For information about availability contact me by email.

When Buckyballs or Fullerenes (Carbon 60, which is a form of carbon, just like coal, activated charcoal, soot, diamonds or the lead in your pencil,) were first discovered several decades ago, they were lauded as a “silver bullet” in medicine. The hype quickly subsided when most researchers realized that both natural and synthetic fullerenes were not very water soluble, hence they only saw weak medical effects. But a team of Ukrainian researchers persisted and a decade ago, they discovered a way to make fullerenes water soluble without making them more toxic. Now, after undergoing clinical trials, they are launching a fullerene-based water solution (FWS) drink shortly on the Ukrainian market as a natural food supplement, Fullerenes are found naturally in lightening discharges, innano-quantities in molasses or in some natural spring. spa watersand in shungite rocks.

Governments around the world should fast-track the approval of hydrated fullerenes (C60 HyFNs) or Fullerene Water Solution (FWS) drinks, which are anti-microbial (both anti viral and anti bacterial) and can protect people from all colds and flu. WFS is about to be launched by Ukrainian scientists on the Ukrainian market as a natural food supplement

So why the Ukrainians and not another country-you might ask yourself? Well they all tried (UK, Americans, Germans, China, Japan, South Korea, etc) to make safe nontoxic watersoluble fullernes but failed except for Ukrainian researchers.

So here are the benefits of FWS over conventional approaches

1) FWS are not viral specific like vaccines -they don't need several months lead time to be manufactured for each new viral season. The turnaround for FWS is 2-3 days. FWS work on all viruses and bacteria year round, by suppressing the viral or bacterial spread from cell to cell. FWS don't kill microbes but block mobility from cell to cell, due to water clusters formed around the fullerene molecule. Your immune system then decides which microbes are invaders and which microbes are beneficial for the body.

2) People and especially teenagers who have died due to swine flu (due to cytokine cascades or secondary bacterial infections) could have been saved if FWS was on the market today.

3) High risk groups -like Canadian aboriginal Indians, could be saved from flu death by taking a combination of Vitamin D (to tune up the immune system in the winter) and FWS

4) With FWS you don't need annual immunization campaigns and 6 hour long lineups, like we have seen in Toronto this past week. Public health money could be used for other priorities.

5) With FWS, you don't need to distinguish between high and low risk groups like you do in rollouts for vaccines. If FWS were available from Walmart to corner health food stores as a health drink , you'd have equal access

6) FWS are cheaper to produce then antibiotics and vaccines

7) FWS are safer then vaccines and antibiotics (see http://toxnet.nlm.nih.gov/and type in "fullerene" under Hazardous Substance Data Bank). FWS don' t build up resistance in bacteria the way antibiotics do.

8)FWS would reduce the work load on hospital ICU's and protect front line staff

9) Feeding fullerne laced water to animals would eliminate the need for conventional antibiotics

Water-soluble fullerenes (also known as buckyballs) or hydrated fullerenes (HyFN's) appear to possess an impressive list of in vivo and in vitro effects which have been researched by Ukrainian scientists and are summarized below:

The following table was reproduced with the permission of the authors:

Basic biological properties of aqueous solutions of the hydrated C60 fullerene (HyFn) detected to the present time (May 2005)

In vitro experiments revealed that HyFn with C60 concentrations up to 100mM/l:

1. Are non-toxic for cells including hepatocytes;

2. Do not suppress, but promote the growth of isolated micro-organisms (microbes, fungi, etc.) and improve the survival rate and viability of cells (e.g., spermatozoa) and of frozen-thawed cells;

8. Do not kill tumor cells, inhibition of development of cancer pathologies, cancer metastasis,

9. Possess anti-atherosclerotic (anti-atherogenic) properties;

10. Are able to protect against viral infection (e.g., influenza, etc.): (HyFn do not kill viruses and microbes, but do not allow them to incorporate into cells)....(HYFNs plus Vitamin D supplements could make antibiotics and vaccines obsolete in the future)

March 21, 2009

Why problem-solving, Total Quality Management (TQM), Continuous Improvement (CI), Value Network Analysis (VNA) etc is not good enough in a recession…..youneed to be totally focused on designing and /or finding novelopportunities. These tools have their place, but it's usually in the upswing part of the business cycle to improve efficiencies of existing operations, but not now.

Many companies are still applying the pre-recession, boom-time mentality to today’s totally changed and novel business environment. Driven by existing business models, mindsets and existing ongoing relationships with consultants, experts, suppliers and vendors, who are desperately trying to maintain their sales numbers and quotas, companies are continuing to do more of the same…what seemed to worked for them in good times..lets' work in the same box. What we need is not "out of the box thinking" [I hate that expressionm becuase it shows that you don't understand cognition and how the brain patterns information], but to design brand new "boxes".

The recession is not a problem to be solved, it’s a crisis to be avoided. And youcan only do that in one way. NOW, you need to be totally opportunity-focused and opportunity-receptive and less problem-focused and preoccupied with incremental change. Radical ideas and concepts, (and not accruemental solutions to old problems, unless they lead to novel opportunity spaces) are in order, along with resulting new business models (which we often forget to explore and redesign ), that will help companies thrive and not just survive in a recession.

In a recently published book, called "The Difference: How Anyone Can Prosper in Even the Toughest Times." by Jean Chatzky, the results of a 2008 Harris Interactive poll/ survey on income was pubished.

3% in the USA are indepently wealthy (usually bigger savers, as a rule)

27% in the USA are comfortably wealthy (recently earned money and wealth, and tend to save more then spend)

54% in the USA live pay check to pay check (driving most retail spending, the classic consumer)

15% going deeper into debt

These are 2008 numbers, so that the stats today are likely much worse.

So if ordinary Americans aren't going to spend their way out of this recession / depression. then who will? Business ? No liquidity yet. It may just take another country, if not another coninent to take over the "consumer" moniker from the USA.

Walter Derzko, Smart Economy, Toronto

Author of the soon-to-be-released book: Hard TimesGolden Opportunities.. about opportunity recognition in a recession/ depression features 45 opportunity scenarios.

February 24, 2009

Most politicians and economists now all agree that the world is in the throws of a total synchronous recession, if not depression. But which countries are the most resilient and get the fact that change and chaos produces opportunites?

Using the number of English language media stories about spotting or designing opportunities in a recession as a very crude proxy indicator, I started looking at several free and paid databases for public stories concerning the recession and opportunity recognition.

Which country is the most Opportunity Savvy in this recession?

Who seems to be on top?

1)The UK

2)The USA

3)India

4)Canada

5)China

The first two results many be biased because the recession /depression is far more advance in these top two countries, and the fact that I was just looking at the English language press only, but if media coverage is a reflection of societal mindsets, then the UK seems to be way ahead as a very opportunity savvy nation-their business people get it.

Author of the soon-to-be-released book: Hard TimesGolden Opportunities.. about opportunity recognition in a recession/ depression features 45 opportunity scenarios.

Expert, Consultant and Keynote Speaker on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Strategic Foresight, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy "

February 23, 2009

(Credit: This prophetic cartoon on the right appeared in one of the fall 2008 issues of the New Yorker magazine. It delivers several important messages from negative (depression, gloom and doom) to Positive (i.e what's the silver lining behind every cloud, or the opportunity behind every threat; resilience, and make do with what you got!)

I was reminded of it after reading this morning's news from Canada’s Globe and Mail newspaper-Dark(er) Days Ahead

The quarterly C-Suite survey was conducted for The Globe and Mail; Report on Business and Business News Network by Gandalf Group, and sponsored by KPMG. The survey interviewed 150 executives between Jan. 29 and Feb. 12. Respondents represent ROB 1000 companies from across Canada.

Here's a summary:

90 per cent of executives expect the economy to decline in the next 12 months (Now here is the flaw with most survey methodologies....They never tell me exactly what I really want to know...I always wonder about the extreme outliers. What do the other 10% think and Why? Why don't surveys ever focus on this "left behind" group?...Their ideas are far more significant then the majority. Are they more optimistic, expecting a quicker turnround? Will the economy be flat or in neutral gear, anemic but not growing or dropping much? Are they just in counter-cyclical business or industry, that's level or even growing in a recession or have they just surfaced new opportunities that the majority of us don't see or can't even imagine yet? Are they just plain contrarians or are they still in the denial stage? or Are they doing something creative / innovative that the other 90 % don’t know about? Do they just see more Opportunity Windows, then the rest of us, because they are now more vigilant for new "opportunity spaces" and "opportunity sensitive areas"? and less gloomy? Are they more Opportunity Savvy then the rest of the other 90%. and more personally, who should I be targeting with the Opportunity Clinic workshops? the 10% who already get it or the 90% who don't and may turn out to be a recession/ depression casaulty?) see Opportunity Clinic

Half think it will be more than a year before growth returns ie 2010

Two-thirds say it is now more difficult than ever to access credit

Two-thirds say the economy has forced them to focus on the short-term at the expense of long-term growth plans,

(significantly) Half are more concerned about corporate survival than they were six months ago.

Hunkering down for survival now seems to be top of mind for many executives

The key, said on exec, is to conserve cash and be ready to expand when the economy improves. But he does not expect a turnaround at least until 2010. (N.B.the concensus used to be end of 2009)

The goal, for everyone, is to ensure survival.

"If there is an upside to the recession, it is that some competitors will be "weeded out," said one C-suite exec. There might also be deals that can be arranged with landlords who will be willing to offer better prices on available retail space.

All companies have to ensure they come out of the recession healthy enough to exploit those opportunities..(see the Opportunity Clinic)

Do you agree? (out of 150 c-suite execs)

I'm confident our company will weather this downturn: 97% agree

This is the worst economic environment in my time: 82% agree

The economy has forced us to focus on short-term at the expense of long-term growth: 67% agree

I am more concerned about our company's survival than I was six months ago: 53% agree