This blog provides updated forecasts and comments on current weather or other topics

Sunday, January 4, 2009

Snow is here

As predicted, the snow is here. But right now it looks like it will hold in for several more hours..roughly 10 PM..which means several more inches. One of the most valuable tools in these situations is the profiler at Sand Point in Seattle. The latest graphic is attached. Temperatures have cooled aloft (this is virtual temperature in centigrade, subtract one degree approximately to give the regular temp). 1C--which mean freezing-- was at roughly 300 m and dropping...that is why snow is falling to sea level now. SW winds are increasing aloft in the figure...and that will bring warm air down eventually...but it is going to take several hours to do so.Take a look at the latest obs (see attached)...cool temps everywhere..even at coastal stations. (Note if you click on the graphics they will expand for easier viewing) Finally, the latest computer forecasts suggest the snow holding to around 10 PM.The bottom line is that snow could well range from 1-4 inches, perhaps more in favored higher locations. Kitsap will get more.Very strong SE winds are over SE Washington and near Destruction Is on the coast. As described in my book, this pattern of strong winds is due to the influence of the Olympics.

Snowing steadily and heavily for the last three hours in Lake Forest Park. I have three inches of thick, wet snow in my yard (again) and it is accumulating on the road below so not a good sign for tomorrow. It's 38 degrees and has been getting colder gradually through the afternoon. 500' above sea level - unbelievable and still, beautiful. I love how quiet it gets when it snows and how bright it is outside.

The plows are out in Mountlake Terrace now. There is a couple inches on the ground now and it's still coming down hard. I'm starting to get nervous that it isn't gonna turn to rain. It's still about 31 degrees out now.

We have 5"+ on the ground in Kingston, and it continues to snow heavily. I just stepped outside and heard a tree cracking in the distance. Likely to be quite a few trees and limbs coming down, as this snow is wet and heavy.

My kids are hoping for no school tomorrow. I have to admit, I wouldn't mind just one more day of snow ...

Ironically, we're just cleaning up after Christmas Eve Party, which was postponed until today for weather reasons. Boy howdy, did people beat a fast path to the door when they saw those flakes were sticking, yet again!

Between 5 and 6.5" depending where I measure it here at 440ft in Port Ludlow, Oly Peninsula (same latitude as Mukilteo, more or less. Been snowing since 3:45, high winds. Boy was I not expecting this!!

heart of Mountlake Terrace, close to 4" of perfect snowman/-ball snow, and the flakes are still coming down (though much smaller now). i wonder what will happen by noon -- will the snow on the ground prove no match for the expected warmer air, or...? it's just been so stubborn up here.

three inches on Queen Anne in Seattle and still coming down hard, but definitely wet stuff. Metro shuttle bus is running with chains on top of the hill, so transportation still available for those without other means. So that is good. It is beautiful.

Olalla: I lost internet access about 8:30...usually means high water content in the snow. When I went out to clear the dish I could hear the raindrops rattling down onto my plastic raincoat hood. I've had access continuously since then. There's been continuous precipitation since 3:30 or so, and we have around six inches of that stuff.

Greenlake/Greenwood at 10:30 PM: About 3 inches here and very much on the roads. No offense to Cliff and other meteorologists around here, but I'm skeptical about any forecasts that have to do with snow. I'm wondering if it really will warm up overnight. I'm hoping to wake to bare wet pavement tomorrow AM. Prove my skepticism wrong.The charm of snow has well worn off for me!

@John - the profiler charts are about the hardest to read of all the charts Cliff posts, but I think if you spend a bit more time you'll start to understand what it's telling you and appreciate how much information is there and how concisely it's presented.

From what I've been able to determine, the vertical axis is altitude, and the horizontal is time, with most recent at the left (ie if it were coming off a printer it would be scrolling to the right). Blue symbols are the vector of wind direction and speed at the various altitudes. Red lines are temperature boundaries; so when you see a vertical red line it indicates that temp is changing at all altitudes, and when you see a horizontal red line it indicates hotter or cooler air at a higher altitude.

I think Tufte would approve of most of these charts! Remember that they're not really meant for the general public; like medical X-rays, they're meant to convey a lot of information efficiently to someone who knows how to read them. But I'm not a meteorologist and I got at least this far.

I'm watching the radar and it appears that the rain may not be coming to my neighborhood tonight. It may dry out by midnight and then I have little hope that the snow will melt enough to make for a nice commute to work. I'm going to bed and hope that I'm wrong and wake to clear roads. Happy dreaming folks! Night Night.

Drove up from Portland this evening, the snow zone ended at Woodland. Then the roads were bare with heavy rain and wind, the worst I have driven in years. More slush at the tops of the 1-5 summits and then more wind and rain. Tumwater was all slushy snow when I arrived. I thought I saw snow lightning 3 times but it could of been transformer exploding.

Foothills south of Sultan (400' elevation): 3" accumulation; still snowing but very lightly; 32 degrees; no wind. Avidly awaiting rain/warming. The Subaru will probably be able to get out in the morning, but I feel less sure of the Toyotas prospects :). (Must traverse steep hills off Ben Howard, and the deep slush last week was very very difficult until some local good Samaritans cleared some of the local byways....)

3-1/4-inches of wet snow on the west side of Green Lake in north Seattle. I saw snow plows going south on 99 (Aurora Ave) several times, for no reason. I saw no improvement after they passed. They should hit the arterials through the neighborhoods. The 358 bus went on a snow route, skipping the Linden Avenue "bypass". Linden needs to be plowed. Aurora is fine. I haven't seen any evidence of icing in the neighborhood or on the arterials. I hope the city doesn't salt.