French socialists select Hamon to carry the flag

Once again it seems that the status quo is a poisoned recipe in politics.

Another election has seen a candidate with policies that not so long ago would have been considered fantastical, winning by a considerable margin.

This time, a coalition of some French left wing parties (La Belle Alliance Populaire), which includes the Socialist Party (PS) that currently holds power, has elected Benoît Hamon to run in the forthcoming presidential election in May. In doing so it has distanced itself from most of the policies of the incumbent president François Hollande and recent prime minister Manuel Valls. Valls, who was representing the traditional social democratic centre-left, was beaten tonight by Hamon in the second round of the presidential primary by 58.5 per cent to 41.5 per cent.

The surprising rise of Benoît Hamon has been due to his convincing articulation of a series of radical policies. The most famous of which was his ‘revenu universel’ which aims to give €750 a month to every French citizen, whether in work or not, as a basic living wage upon which the income from work can be added.

The ‘revenu universel’ has been estimated to cost the French treasury €450 billion. Realising the infeasibility of this measure, Hamon has retreated to proposing an initial test of the idea at a cost of €40bn to be financed by raising taxes on property, land and the wealth of the most prosperous.

In the end, as the nature of work changes with new technology, for example, so should the nature of income change, with a ‘revenu universel’ paid for by a tax on the robots that replace human workers.

More broadly Benoît Hamon proposes an end to a prolonged period of austerity throughout which the French budget deficit obstinately resisted all measures to reduce this to the 3 per cent of GDP level demanded for members of the European Union. Hamon prefers a Keynesian solution to allow public spending to exceed 7 per cent of GDP.

While these economic ideas might raise eyebrows in Brussels and Berlin, as with all mainstream political parties in France, including the Front National of Marine Le Pen, the desire is to remain in the European Union. Indeed, Hamon proposes a mutualisation and re-financing of European debt by the European Central Bank (ECB) and would like to return to a socialism that is European in its relationships and outlook.

A significant part of Benoît Hamon’s winning formula is the tight association of his socialist policies and principles with outcomes that are environmentally sustainable. Indeed, he has said it is now difficult to consider one a socialist without also being an ecologist. Multinational agro-chemical businesses and the use of pesticides and endocrine disrupting chemicals, centralised and non-sustainable energy sources, and even the capitalist system itself with its demand for economic growth at any cost are targets for Hamon’s ire.

Add to this tolerance for the recreational use of cannabis, for pragmatic reasons – its criminalisation just doesn’t work – and the welcome support for migrants in distress, for humanitarian reasons. France, he believes, could do a lot more to accommodate refugees seeking asylum.

All the above are articulated in a coherent and convincing manner to suggest there is an alternative to the dominant neoclassical economic capitalist system that is falling into disrepute across the world. This is what has appealed to the majority casting their vote in the socialist primary election, and what has led to the adoption of Benoît Hamon as their presidential candidate.

However, the best news in all of this seems to be for the increasingly popular Emmanuel Macron – the ex-banker and recent economy minister who is an independent presidential candidate with another bundle of radical policies to fix the competitiveness of the French economy. A Manuel Valls victory would have squeezed Macron’s natural constituency in the centre-left. As it is, Benoît Hamon is doing the same to another highly charismatic presidential candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon representing the Left Front.

According to French opinion polls, whoever won the socialist primary would end up in fifth place with about 12 per cent of the vote in the first round of the French presidential election in May. They would not then qualify for the two person second round run-off. However, the polls are not to be relied upon. And with presidential favourite François Fillon struggling to cast off historic Penelope-gate allegations of fraudulent payments to his wife, the race is wide open.

Could it be Macron, Le Pen or Fillon or could it be Mélenchon or Hamon?

News Bites

May to hold talks with Merkel in Berlin
Theresa May is due to hold talks with German Chancellor Angela Merkel as she seeks to make progress on negotiating Brexit. The PM will travel to Berlin for the meeting at the Chancellery. It comes a day ahead of a speech on Saturday in which she is expected to set out the “security partnership” she wants to maintain with the EU. The UK is under pressure to reveal more detail about the final relationship it wants with the EU. Mrs May and her ministers are setting out what has been dubbed “the road to Brexit” in a series of speeches. BBC news, February 16

UK aims to keep financial rules close to EU
The UK is ready to set out its vision for how it wants financial services to operate after Brexit and favours an ambitious “mutual recognition” of regulations to preserve the City of London’s access to the EU. Under Britain’s proposal, the UK and the EU would recognise each other’s regulatory and supervisory regimes and would have aligned rules at the point of Brexit, with a mechanism that would monitor any divergence. Three senior figures briefed on Brexit discussions in the cabinet said that the government will back the proposal, which is also favoured by Mark Carney, the Bank of England governor. Financial Times, February 16

Business leader warns May against harsh immigration policy
British companies are facing a recruitment crisis, with labour shortages hitting critical levels in some sectors, according to a business leader who has urged the government to produce details on a post-Brexit immigration system. Adam Marshall, the director general of the British Chambers of Commerce, said the lack of candidates for some jobs was biting hard, and he warned ministers against bringing forward a “draconian and damaging” visa or work permit system. Surveys by the BCC showed that nearly three-quarters of firms trying to recruit had been experiencing difficulties “at or near the highest levels since [BCC] records began over 25 years ago”, he said. The Guardian, February 16

Lecturers want ‘radical’ tuition fee review
University staff are calling for a “radical” overhaul of tuition fees and higher education funding in England in a review of student finance. Sally Hunt, leader of the University and College Union, says the review must be more than “tinkering at the edges”. The review, expected to be formally announced in the near future, follows a promise by the prime minister to examine the cost of university. Theresa May said the review would show “we have listened and we have learned”. Ms Hunt, whose members are threatening strike action next week in a pensions dispute, says there needs to be a “fundamental look at university funding”. BBC news, February 16

Shampoo ‘as bad a health risk as car fumes’
Shampoo, oven cleaner, deodorant and other household products are as significant a source of the most dangerous form of air pollution as cars, research has found. Scientists studying air pollution in Los Angeles found that up to half of particles known as volatile organic compounds (VOCs) came from domestic products, which also include paint, pesticides, bleach and perfumes. These compounds degrade into particles known as PM2.5, which cause respiratory problems and are implicated in 29,000 premature deaths each year in the UK. Traffic had been assumed to be the biggest source of air pollution. The new findings, published in the journal Science, led to warnings that countries may struggle to hit pollution targets, with most tackling vehicle emissions. The Times, February 16

US rejects China bid for Chicago Stock Exchange
The US has rejected a proposed merger between the Chicago Stock Exchange and a Chinese-linked investor group. The decision comes after more than two years of reviews by officials. The tie-up was initially approved by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, pending further approval by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). But US politicians, including President Trump, have said letting a Chinese firm invest in a US exchange was a bad idea. Under the proposal, the Chinese-led North America Casin Holdings group would have bought a minority share of the privately owned Chicago Stock Exchange. BBC news, February 16

Labour gets 16,000 emails in five days urging it to consult on Brexit
More than 16,000 people have emailed Labour over the past five days, urging the party to consult members on Brexit after MPs said the topic was being ignored by its most senior policy body. The emails from party members will be examined by the party’s national policy forum (NPF), which meets this weekend in Leeds, and whose members include the shadow cabinet and trade union leaders. Labour has set up eight policy commissions since last year’s general election, to consult members and develop policy, but none focus on Brexit. The party has said Brexit is covered under the international policy commission, involving Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary, but that commission is not at the moment accepting submissions on Brexit. The Guardian, February 15