Another storm system is set to impact the Capital Region beginning later this afternoon and lasting through at least tomorrow morning. This system will take a bit of a different track, thus producing different weather conditions over our region than its predecessor on Thursday and Friday did.

The low pressure area associated with the storm was well inland, over the Arkansas and Tennessee border, early this afternoon. There is a separate low pressure area over the South Carolina coast as well, but these two low pressure areas are not forecast to join forces.

This evening, the inland low pressure area is forecast to move into the Ohio Valley, and then through Central and Eastern New York, into the Saint Lawrence River Valley by Monday morning.

This forecast track usually results in a warmer result for the Capital Region. Remaining on the eastern, or right side, of the surface low pressure area will keep a southerly flow of air in the low levels of the atmosphere. This will aid in boosting our temperatures somewhat from the Arctic chill we have been experiencing. In fact, most indications point toward temperatures climbing to, or above, the freezing mark by this evening.

Light precipitation may begin over the region, in the form of snow, as soon as later this afternoon or early this evening. As the warmer air quickly erodes the cold air in place, precipitation should transition to a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and/or freezing rain for a short while before transitioning to all rain. A coating of snow and/or ice is possible prior to the transition, which is expected to occur before the midnight hour tonight. Unlike the last storm, precipitation is forecast to generally be light in intensity. In fact, overnight, precipitation may taper off to drizzle or very light rain at times.

There is also a concern this evening and overnight that locally dense fog may occur over portions of the region. This usually happens in these types of situations where the Capital Region lies east of a low pressure center, in ‘warmer’ air. Fog may reduce visibility in time for the morning commute tomorrow.

A strong cold front is forecast to pass through the region during the mid and late morning hours tomorrow. This front will be accompanied by some rain showers, that will likely change to snow showers and squalls, post frontal passage.

Behind this entire system will come another push of Arctic air for the midweek period. Gusty northwest winds will kick up by Monday afternoon, and look to last through at least Wednesday. Bitter cold air will reestablish a foothold over the region through this time and wind chills may become quite dangerous, especially during the overnight periods on Monday and Tuesday.

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Joe Kriss has been a lifelong resident of the Capital Region. He earned a Bachelor of Science degree in Atmospheric Science from the State University of New York at Albany in 2001. Using a personal website, he has produced his own forecasts for the Capital Region for several years. He was also the Forecaster-In-Charge for the former USA Weather, Inc. virtual Albany, NY office, and the Director of Education for that organization for 4 years. You may contact Joe with your comments and questions.