THE LAST OASIS:
Facing Water Scarcityby Sandra Postel

CONSERVATION AND EFFICIENCY URGED
TO STAVE OFF WATER SHORTAGES

Water scarcity may be to the nineties what the oil price
shocks were to the seventiesa source of international
conflicts and major shifts in national economies. Water scarcity
will affect everything from prospects for peace in the Middle
East to global food security, the growth of cities, and the
location of industries.

Already, 26 countries have more people than their water
supplies can adequately support. Tensions are mounting over
scarce water in the Middle East and could ignite during this
decade. And competition for water is intensifying between city
dwellers and farmers around Beijing, New Delhi, Phoenix, and
other water-short areas.

Even as supplies tighten, the Ford Foundation-funded study
finds that building large new dams and river diversions is
becoming prohibitively costly and environmentally damaging.

In most cases, measures to conserve water and use it more
efficiently are now the most cost-effective and environmentally
sound ways of meeting water needs. Together they constitute our
'last oasis'and they have barely been tapped.

LAST OASIS finds that, with techniques available today,
farmers could cut their water demands by 10-50 percent,
industries by 40-90 percent, and cities by a third with no
sacrifice of economic output or quality of life.

Since 1950 global water use has more than tripled.
Traditionally, engineers have met rising demands by building
larger water projects and drilling ever more groundwater wells.
But limits to expanding the supply are swiftly coming to light.

Falling water tables from the overpumping of groundwater are
now ubiquitous in parts of China, India, Mexico, Thailand, the
western United States, north Africa, and the Middle East. From
the Aral Sea in central Asia to south Florida's Everglades, the
diversion of water for farms and cities threatens to destroy
irreplaceable ecosystems that support valuable fisheries and
treasure troves of wildlife. And the cost of building new
irrigation projects has risen markedly, contributing to a 6
percent decline in per capita irrigated land since 1978.

Africa currently has 11 water-scarce countriesnations
with renewable supplies of less than 725 gallons per person per
day, a minimum benchmark for being able to meet food, industrial,
and household water needs while maintaining a healthy aquatic
environment. By the end of this decade, four others will join the
list, and the total number of Africans living in water-scarce
countries will climb to 300 million, a third of the continent's
projected population.

The Middle East, where 9 out of 14 countries are water-scarce,
suffers the most concentrated scarcity in the world today. By the
end of the nineties, water problems in the Middle East will lead
either to an unprecedented degree of cooperation or a combustible
level of conflict.

LAST OASIS makes clear that today, "instead of
continuously reaching out for more water, the challenge is to do
more with lessby conserving and recycling water and using
it more efficiently." The book shows that currently
available technologies and methods can cut water demand
dramatically, and gives numerous examples.

In the Texas High Plains, supplied by the dwindling Ogallala
aquifer, many farmers have adapted old-fashioned furrow
irrigation systems to a new "surge" technique that
distributes water more uniformly and reduces waste. Water savings
have averaged 25 percent, and the initial investment of about $30
per hectare is typically recouped within the first year.

Israel pioneered the use of highly efficient drip irrigation;
Israeli farmers cut average water use on each irrigated hectare
by a third, even while raising crop yields. Worldwide, use of
drip irrigation has grown 28-fold since the mid-seventies, but
still accounts for less than 1 percent of world irrigated area.

Industry has achieved some of the most dramatic gains in
conservation, LAST OASIS shows. In Japan, total industrial water
use peaked in 1973 and then dropped 24 percent by 1989.
Industrial output, meanwhile, climbed steadily. As a result, the
value of output from each cubic meter of water supplied to
Japanese industries rose from $21 in 1965 to $77 (in real terms)
in 1989a more than tripling of industrial water
productivity.

Cities as diverse as Singapore, Los Angeles, Mexico City, and
Jerusalem have shown conservation to be a money-saving way of
meeting their residents' water needs. In the greater Boston area,
for example, public education, the installation of
water-efficient fixtures in homes, industrial water audits, and
system-wide leak repair reduced total annual water demand by 16
percent in about 5 years, bringing it down to the level of the
late sixties and postponing the need to develop costly new water
sources.

The key to realizing these savings is putting in place pricing
strategies, policies, and management practices that promote
efficiency rather then wastefulness. It's particularly important
to end the widespread practice of heavily subsidizing irrigation,
which accounts for two-thirds of the world's total water use.

The U.S. Congress recently took an important step in this
direction with the October passage of legislation reforming
operation of the federal Central Valley Project in California.
Among other initiatives, it establishes a tiered pricing system
to encourage more efficient water use by California farmers,
thereby freeing up supplies for cities and improving the
environment. Part of an omnibus water bill, the act was awaiting
President Bush's signature at the time this release went to
press.

Also in October 1992, a new federal law set national water
efficiency standards for new home fixtures and appliances. The
standards will gradually cut average indoor water use by 30
percent, helping lower water and wastewater costs nationwide.

LAST OASIS suggests that governments, the World Bank, and
development agencies make a complete accounting of the
environmental and social effects of large water projects. A more
accurate tally of costs and benefits would tip the scales toward
efficiency, conservation, and smaller-scale projects.

LAST OASIS also calls for more open markets for buying and
selling water. By creating incentives for farmers to irrigate
more efficiently and to switch to less thirsty crops, water
trading can free up water to meet rising demands without building
large new dams. In the United States, 127 water transactions were
reported in 12 western states during 1991, with most water being
sold by farms and bought by cities. Shifting 7 percent of western
agriculture's water to cities could meet the growth in urban
demand projected until the year 2000.

Achieving water balance in some regions will not be possible
without a slowdown in population growth. At current growth rates,
the populations of 18 of the 20 countries now qualifying as
water-scarce in Africa and the Middle East will double within 30
years. No set of technological feats, however imaginative, can
win such a race.

LAST OASIS concludes with a call for a new "water
ethic" that has the protection of natural ecosystems and
equitable use of water at its core. Water is the basis of life,
and our stewardship of it will determine not only the quality but
the staying power of human societies.

The challenge now is to put as much human
ingenuity into learning to live in balance with water as we have
put into controlling and manipulating it. In the end, the time
available to make this shift may prove as precious as water
itself. --END--

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