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Soccer Picks: Athletic Bilbao vs. Levante in La Liga Action

Spain’s Primera Liga enters match day 13 at the weekend with a full card on the books for soccer bettors to spot. Join us as we breakdown the clash between Athletic Bilbao and Levante, slated for Saturday.

Betting
on the winner

Some very interesting soccer odds have gone to press on the clash between Athletic Bilbao
and Levante but before we get to those let’s get to the nitty-gritty, an
individual look at each side after which we’ll deliver our free soccer picks.

Athletic
Bilbao hot favourites? Levante huge underdogs?

Athletic Bilbao currently hold an enviable
fifth position in Spain’s top-flight table, in pole position in the race for
fourth place. They are three points adrift of Villarreal following a 6-2-4 mark
in 12 laps around the league. However, it’s a tenuous hold that is in danger of
slipping alongside a perceptible dip in form over the last couple of weeks and
in the face of growing pressure from below, in-form teams eyeing loftier
heights that are applying the pressure as they steadily march up the table. The
nearest threat comes from Getafe, who are nipping at their heels a point
adrift. But growing rumblings further down the table from seventh placed Real
Sociedad and (to a lesser extent) eighth placed Levante as they pick up the
pace arguably poses the greatest threat.

Athletic Bilbao recently dropped points on
a 2-2 draw at home to mid-table Elche and on a 2-0 defeat to Atletico Madrid on
the road. Now with a date against eighth placed Levante looming on the horizon,
a side that is one of several sides notionally in great position to usurp
Athletic Bilbao from their lofty perch, they can’t afford any missteps.

If Levante had beaten Granada on their last
lap around La Liga this could have been a closer battle, between two sides that
would have been level on 20 points. As it stands, Levante saw their three-game
unbeaten streak snapped on the back of a 1-0 home defeat to Granada, which, in
turn, saw them remain on 17 points, six points adrift of Villarreal in fourth.
It remains to be seen whether they’ll rue that missed opportunity in the short
and long term.

As the soccer
betting market currently stands, you wouldn’t get a sense of the importance
of this clash towards the standings. Odds makers unanimously favour Athletic
Bilbao to runaway winners at firm -200 soccer odds while Levante are being dubbed the serious underdogs at +550 at Bet365.

Why
is the market so lopsided? Is this outlook correct?

It’s quite the lopsided market across all sportsbooks. That Athletic Bilbao is so
strongly favoured seems to make sense, namely because, despite wobbling
recently, they are undefeated at home with a 4-2-0 mark. But upon closer
inspection, the only team worthy of note that they’ve beaten was Villarreal.
Celta de Vigo, Real Betis and Osasuna are lightweights flirting with the
relegation zone right now; that they’ve beaten those clubs doesn’t say a whole lot
really.

This leads us to question whether Athletic
Bilbao is really that good or are they only as good as their schedule? If it’s
the latter, then it follows the last two rounds are a more representative
measure of their quality, right. That in turn would suggest odds makers are
overrating them with such hefty favourable soccer
odds.

In part the defeat at home to Granada (now up
from 14 to 11 in the table following week 12) hurt Levante in market estimation
as they failed to build on the last home win, a 3-0 victory over Espanyol. But
a very important distinction needs pointing out here: that is, Levante’s
position in the table is almost exclusively built on road form, where they’ve
only suffered one defeat thus far this season – albeit a horrific 7-0 defeat to
Barcelona, which they’d sooner rather than later forget.

Levante (4-5-3 overall) are 3-2-1 on the
road with wins over Rayo Vallecano, Osasuna and Celta de Vigo and draws against
Real Betis and Almeira. Now, all these sides are mired in the nether regions of
the table – almost the same list of teams that Athletic Bilbao beat, one might
add. However, given that Levante seem to play better on the road than they do
at home (less pressure) they could be feeling optimistic about protecting that
undefeated record against Athletic Bilbao, if not by winning then at least by
forcing a draw, an option for your sports picks that
can be found at +310 odds.

In fact, the more you think about it the
more appealing that notion becomes, a notion that is encouraged along somewhat
by the perceptible dip in form of the hosts and their questionable measure. Put
another way: the discrepancy in price between Athletic Bilbao at steep -200 soccer odds and Levante at a huge price
of +550 seems unwarranted when very little separates them on paper. Simple
maths and deduction, Athletic Bilbao is not worth it. Better soccer picks for
your money would be taking a chance on a Levante road win at +550 or going for
the draw at +310. For our part, we’re plumping down to the draw.