Belgium’s economic recovery is beginning to gain momentum. Growthin 2016 will be stronger than the previous year and in line with thebroader eurozone.Government contribution’s to real GDP growth will be negligible inthe coming years, as the Belgian authorities remain committed toreducing its debt-to-GDP ratio.A weaker euro combined with quickening growth and domesticdemand in the eurozone will provide a moderate boost to Belgium’sexporters over the forecast period.Belgium’s extremely high national debt continues to leave it exposedto a potential deterioration in economic growth exasperating debtservicing pressure and also the possibility of yields increasing dueto eurozone instability.Major Forecast ChangesNo major forecast changes.

Table Of Contents

Belgium Country Risk Report Q2 2016Executive Summary 5Core Views5Major Forecast Changes5Chapter 1: Economic Outlook 7SWOT Analysis 7BMI Economic Risk Index 7Economic Growth Outlook 8Eurozone Demand Main Driver Of Growth8GDP growth in Belgium will be subdued in the years ahead This will mainly be driven by higher eurozone demand and increasinghousehold spending, while government reforms of the tax system will positively impact employment in the coming yearsGDP By Expenditure Outlook 9TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS9TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS9TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS9TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS10TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECAST10Regional Economic Outlook 10ECB: Underwhelming, But Still Substantial Easing10The European Central Bank (ECB)'s monetary policy easing on December 3 disappointed markets in terms of its depth and breadthHowever, strengthening economic and inflation conditions in the eurozone suggest that the ECB may be better off holding fire, and inour view, the easing is still fairly significant despite disappointment on the headline figures We continue to forecast a weaker euro inChapter 2: Political Outlook 15SWOT Analysis 15BMI Political Risk Index 15Domestic Politics 16Regional Tensions To Remain Subdued16Although Belgium is divided by language and wealth, regional tensions are unlikely to increase over the coming years, as Wallonia'seconomic position improves and the call for Flemish independence wanes On the contrary, political and social tensions are more likelyto emerge between native Belgians and the country's large immigrant communityTABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW16Long-Term Political Outlook 18Unity To Prevail18Flemish separatism, although less significant than in previous years, will remain a political risk facing Belgium over the coming decade,spurred by economic as well as cultural and linguistic divisions An outright dissolution of the state is unlikely, given the still sizeableproportion of the population that supports union Moreover, threats of terrorism will be an even more prominent issue in Belgium than inmany other European countriesChapter 3: BMI Global Macro Outlook 21Global Macro Outlook 21Unfinished Business In 201621TABLE: GLOBAL ASSUMPTIONS21TABLE: DEVELOPED STATES, REAL GDP GROWTH, %22TABLE: BMI VERSUS BLOOMBERG CONSENSUS REAL GDP GROWTH FORECASTS, % 22TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS, REAL GDP GROWTH, %23TABLE: BELGIUM - MACROECONOMIC DATA and FORECASTS25

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