Wondering About Will

The structure of spring training is such that, despite a litany of media in attendance, each day’s coverage tends to center in one place. For example, Jon Lester spoke on Monday, so today’s largely a redux of all the contract talk we got at the Boston BBWAA dinner, when the lefty first formally aired his willingness to take a ton less money to stay in Boston.

Already in Fort Myers, we’ve had the day where Jake Peavy took a ball off his right hand … it wasn’t a big deal, but it was the news of the day. That’s not me ripping anybody. That’s the nature of the beast. As the 24-hour sports news cycle so often proves, some days, there just isn’t news. eally, there’s been one significant bit to happen thusfar in Fort Myers. (Outside of Jonny Gomes shaving his beard, which is too big for mere words.)

When Ryan Dempster opted out of the 2014 season for injury and familial reasons — all the best to his family, which has been through a lot — the straightforward effect on the team wasn’t huge. At best an end-of-the-rotation arm, his departure appears to plug Felix Doubront – “not fat,” according to reports! – into the No. 5 spot and secure former Gateman Brandon Workman as the leader of those waiting for an opening.

The way the decision was made, however, offers a huge benefit in the form of $13.25 million the Red Sox suddenly have to spend. (To call it a stand-up move by Dempster sells it short. The Red Sox appear to have a glut of guys who believe it’s not all about the money.) Given what Dempster likely would have offered on the field, especially considering the young options the Sox have in the pipeline, it’s a net gain.

Some immediately speculated that the Red Sox could now [with Dempster's money] re-sign free-agent shortstop Stephen Drew. But in truth, the decision on Drew does not simply involve money.

If the Sox keep Drew, they will lose the compensation pick they would receive if he signed with another club. They also will be forced to divide playing time among Drew, shortstop Xander Bogaerts and third baseman Will Middlebrooks.

Maybe that decision wouldn’t be so difficult — Bogaerts is a budding star while Middlebrooks lost his job twice last season, first to Jose Iglesias, then to Bogaerts. The Sox could trade Middlebrooks, play Bogaerts at third for two years, then move him to short when third-base prospect Garin Cecchini is ready.

On the other hand, Middlebrooks hasn’t exactly been a slouch in his first 615 major league at-bats, batting .254 with a .756 OPS, 32 homers and 103 RBI. His type of right-handed power is in short supply. Cecchini, a left-handed hitter, might not hit for enough power to profile at third base.

There’s always a danger in putting too much faith in prospects. That of course refers to Cecchini, who didn’t even have 300 plate appearances at Double-A last season. But let’s not forget it’s application to Middlebrooks, who was supposed to be one of the linchpins of the offense in 2013.

Boston Herald: “When you’re kicked when you’re down, it teaches you a lot of lessons. I learned a lot more last year than I did my first year doing well. It’s easy to play when you’re crushing the ball and picking it on defense. You feel good. It’s easy. You learn something about yourself and your teammates when you’re struggling, to see how you react to that. … It sucks. No one wants it, and it’s not like I enjoyed it. But my teammates, they understood. They knew what I was going through. I tried to be a tough guy and play through a few things, and I’ve got to be smarter, because it’s going to hurt the team if I don’t. I learned some lessons.”

John Farrell on Middlebrooks, to WEEI.com: ”I think in talking with Will at length, whether it was throughout the course of the year or having sit-down conversations with him in the offseason, he learned a lot last year. He was challenged in a few ways. I think that through those experiences, he’s understanding of what his needs and what his strengths are more readily, and that’s part of the maturation process of a player. The one thing he hasn’t lost is his raw abilities and his talent. I feel like what he was two years ago is maybe more representative than what he was a year ago, and we feel like there’s a very good major league player in there.”

That’s all fine. But aren’t we forgetting something? Was Will Middlebrooks’ problem last year a lack of muscle?

Or was it a lack of patience at the plate?

Among Sox who made 350 plate appearances, the only player who swung at a higher percentage of pitches outside the zone and made a lower percentage of contact on them was Jarrod Saltalamacchia. And those were season-long numbers … from September to the end of the season, Middlebrooks swung at a shade more than 40 percent of the pitches he saw outside the strike zone, those pitches amounting to a .208 batting average. (Data via BrooksBaseball.)

That’s not good. Nor was his defense at third base, which got some mention here last season … Middlebrooks saved -8 runs at third base according to that Jamesian measure, ranking 29th among MLB third basemen largely because of struggles on balls to his right.

By almost every measure, he was a bad player last season. And while a lot of that could certainly be due to his injury — even if he was batting .195/.232/.381 before it happened — we’re still dealing with a guy who hasn’t even had a full season of MLB success under his belt. And that 2012 comes with some caveats … Middlebrooks’ .335 batting average on balls in play was about 40 points better than the league average, and he still swung at 27 percent of the pitches he saw outside the zone, not that far from the better than 20 he was for 2013.

The greatest argument in Middlebrooks’ favor isn’t that he was injured last season, it’s that he offers middle-of-the-lineup potential for a lineup that might actually be hurting for that going forward. David Ortiz — he of the intermittent expletive-laden tirades at his critics — really won’t be around forever. Xander Bogaerts tracks well, but how well with that amount to?

Toward the end of last season, Middlebrooks sounded humbled. He entered this season saying all the right things about being motivated. But talk is cheap, and nearly 700 major-league plate appearances is getting to be quite the sample size.

NOTABLE QUOTABLES

John Farrell on Francisco Cordero, the former Texas, Milwaukee and Cincinnati closer, whom the Sox signed on a minor-league deal: ”He’s a guy that’s got a lot of experience, back-end. I have personal familiarity with him from when he was in Toronto (in late 2012). Given some of the numbers in camp, there’s been nothing guaranteed to Coco, but a chance to come in and demonstrate what he still has.”

Grady Sizemore, who’s not played in the majors since 2011 and is in camp as competition for Jackie Bradley Jr. in center field: “I’m healthy. I’m good to go. There will still be some things that I’m working on this spring, just trying to get back to 100 percent. I’m not necessarily in baseball shape but I’m in good physical shape. … I still feel like I have the speed. It’s one of those things where it’s more durability. Can you put it together every day? Maybe out of the chute I’m not going to say my speed is the exact same that it was the last time I was healthy, but I definitely think I can get there. It’s just a matter of staying healthy and putting together a good program together.” (WEEI.com)

Good work by Rob Bradford to bring Rocco Baldelli into the conversation, given he’s a near perfect comparable for Sizemore. A budding superstar who was cut down by injuries, and came to Boston to try and re-establish itself. Hopefully, it goes better for Sizemore … Baldelli got just 164 plate apperances in ’09 and was out of he majors after a brief stint back in Tampa the next year.

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Jon Couture

Jon Couture has been covering the Red Sox for The Standard-Times since the 2003 playoffs, when management asked him the odd question, "Would you like to go to New York to cover the first two games of the ALCS?" Though he missed the memorable Don ... Read Full