May 25, 2012

Considering the geostrategic significance of
Myanmar, it is crucial for India to befriend the country as it serves
as a land bridge to Southeast Asia and because India's booming economy
desperately needs Myanmar's rich oil and natural gas resources, a
Chinese expert has said.

Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh will
begin his trip to Myanmar Sunday, the first Indian prime minister in 25
years to visit the country since Rajiv Gandhi in 1987.

Ye Hailin, an expert in South Asian studies with
the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times daily
that, "Some Indian experts take this visit as just another example of
India being late to the game, since Chinese and even US leaders have
already visited".

However, he said that he does not see Manmohan
Singh's trip to Myanmar as a significant change, or as merely following
the lead of the US or others.

Under the aegis of its "Look East Policy", a
significant shift in India's policy toward Myanmar actually took place
in the 1990s, from support for the pro-democracy movement to engaging
the pro-military government, he said.

"Considering Myanmar's geostrategic significance,
it is crucial for India to befriend Myanmar, which is the only Southeast
Asian country with which it shares a 1,600-km land border. It serves as
India's land-bridge to the other 10 member states of the Association of
Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)," the Chinese expert said.

"The other main reason for India to maintain a
stable bilateral relationship is because of Myanmar's rich oil and
natural gas resources, which India's booming economy desperately needs,"
he said.

India has been "searching the world" for energy
resources, and "Myanmar could be India's next-door supplier". It will
enable India to cut down on transportation costs and the risks involved.

Moreover, as Myanmar shares a long border with
India's northeastern region, which has many active militant groups that
used to take shelter in Myanmar, close ties will help India persuade
Myanmar not to take anti-India elements in, he said.

But he said Manmohan Singh's trip "is an obvious sign" that India has picked up the pace to bolster bilateral ties.

"As one of the big stakeholders in Myanmar, India
is concerned about being neglected once the US has also joined the
competition over the country," he said.

With Myanmar's new openness to the West, dominated
by the US, and China's ongoing influence in the nation, "India has
actually been edged out of the main stage" while both the US and China
are doing whatever they can to gain the favour of the economically
struggling, strategically placed Myanmar.

"This is not a situation that India wants to see," he said.

India is accelerating its investment in infrastructure development in Myanmar to compete with China.

Beijing's relationship with Myanmar became
strained after the government of President Thein Sein suspended
construction in September 2011 of a dam being built with Chinese
support, he said.

"Besides, India is closely monitoring whether the
China-Myanmar relationship will take on a military dimension in case
rumours about China attempting to build naval and intelligence
facilities in Myanmar turn into reality," the expert told Global Times.

China and Myanmar are "long-time friends" with a
history of bilateral exchanges, economic complementarities and
geopolitical ties.

Chinese State Councilor Dai Bingguo will meet
Thein Sein in capital Nay Pyi Taw in December, where the two countries
may mend their links, he said.

"It is in India's interest to encourage Myanmar to
take the current political reforms to their logical conclusion for free
and fair elections in 2015," he said.

But the Chinese expert doubts whether it is in Myanmar's interest "to take India as a main ally".

India's trade with Myanmar has doubled between 2005 and 2010 to $1.2 billion.