CES 2013: Ultra HD, Coming to a TV Near You?

The big story of CES this year was big TVs, but that was no surprise. It seems like every year there's some new display technology that's the talk of the show. Sometimes the technologies become incredibly successful and mainstream, such as flat panel displays, LCDs, and LED backlighting. Sometimes the technologies just don't scale cost-effectively and essentially disappear, such as liquid-crystal-on-silicon (LCOS) or surface-condition electron-emitter displays (SEDs). Sometimes the technology is interesting, but quickly becomes a feature that doesn't get used much, such as 3D or apparently "smart TVs." Still other times the technology is just too early, as may be the case for organic light-emitting displays (OLEDs). But based on all the sets I saw at CES 2013 last week, it sure looks as though "Ultra High Definition" is on its way toward becoming a mainstream technology.

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The big story of CES this year was big TVs, but that was no surprise. It seems like every year there's some new display technology that's the talk of the show. Sometimes the technologies become incredibly successful and mainstream, such as flat panel displays, LCDs, and LED backlighting. Sometimes the technologies just don't scale cost-effectively and essentially disappear, such as liquid-crystal-on-silicon (LCOS) or surface-condition electron-emitter displays (SEDs). Sometimes the technology is interesting, but quickly becomes a feature that doesn't get used much, such as 3D or apparently "smart TVs." Still other times the technology is just too early, as may be the case for organic light-emitting displays (OLEDs). But based on all the sets I saw at CES 2013 last week, it sure looks as though "Ultra High Definition" is on its way toward becoming a mainstream technology.

These sets display double the resolution of "full HD" or 1080p sets in each direction for a total of 3,840-by-2,160 pixels. The industry used to call this "4K" but more recently, the Ultra HD or "UHD" monikers seem to be sticking instead.

We've seen 4K displays at conferences for years, and last fall, a number of such sets went on the market, including Sony's 84-inch Bravia, which seems to be the standard that lots of other companies were using to display 4K content and programming. LG had another 84-inch set as well, but at $20,000 and up, these were quite expensive.

As you would expect, a lot of vendors have high hopes that they can keep UHD sets expensive, and certainly Sony and the big brands that actually make LCD panels—Samsung, LG, and Sharp—are now showing lines of high-end TVs, including displays of different sizes. Often these brands are competing to show the largest displays or special features.

But what stood out the most to me was how many 4K TVs there were at the show. It wasn't just the usual suspects; Hisense and TCL, Chinese companies that most Americans haven't even heard of but which are big Asian TV makers, also had impressive UHD displays, as did Haier, Vizio, and Westinghouse.

I think I saw at least 20 different vendors on the show floor, and guess what?—they all looked wonderful. Sure, you can argue about the quality of the upscaling from traditional full HD content or about who has the deepest blacks, but my guess is just about everyone would find any of these sets to provide a spectacular picture.

Indeed, I thought the UHD displays not only had better resolution, which you can really only see at a certain distance, but also presented a better feeling of depth of field. This shows up most clearly on "native 4k" content, of course, but even on upscaled 1080p content. Side-by-side demos left little doubt about the strength of the new UHD TVs on large displays.

Above: Hisense 84-inch UHD LED TV

I can't even give one vendor the credit for the largest 4K TV I saw: Hisense, Samsung, TCL, and Westinghouse all showed 110-inch versions. Generally, these weren't priced, though Westinghouse said its product would be available as a special order for $299,000—can't imagine there will be many takers at that price.

But Westinghouse certainly gets credit for being the most aggressive on price. It plans to have a 50-inch 4K set at $2,500 and a 65-inch set for $4,000, all by the end of the first quarter. These aren't particularly high-end models—they don't have "smart TV" functions or complex 4K upscaling—but the sets looked ok and the price is a lot lower than the bigger names. It's also certainly an indication that the sky-high prices in the category won't last very long.

Upscaling and (The Lack of) 4K Content

So how are the vendors trying to compete? To begin with, many brands are talking about image processing and positioning UHD within their highest-end TV lines, those with many other features.

For instance, Sony talked about its X-Reality Pro picture engine's ability to provide better images, as well as its "triluminous display" (more on that in a bit).LG promoted its "Triple XD engine" with Resolution Upscaler Plus. Samsung touted its quad-core A15-based display engine and voice interaction. Sharp has two kinds of UHD TVs: the ICC-Purios 4K screens, a very high end 60-inch model that will be out shortly with THX 4K certification, and one for the high-end of its Aquos line, due out this summer. Toshiba has its CEVO 4K Quad+Dual Core Processor. Vizio touted 4K for its high-end XVT series.

Above: Toshiba's UHD TV with CEVO 4K Engine

It's impossible to evaluate the differences between these by looking at demos on the show, but they all looked excellent.

One reason you see a lot of discussion about image processing is that upscaling 1080p or "full HD" content is going to be really important for these sets. In part, that's because there really are no standards for 4K content yet. Indeed, one footnote in LG's press release stands out:

No "ultra high definition" or "4K' content is currently available. No broadcast or other standard currently exists for "4K' or "ultra high definition" television and the 84LM9600 may or may not be compatible with such standards if and when developed.

The other companies may not have been so explicit, but the situation is exactly the same for them. Sony is shipping a 4K media player with preloaded content with its 84-inch set, but that's not really a long-term answer. A couple of the companies were showing Blu-ray players that could display 4K content, but there aren't many titles yet. So instead, the big companies were all showing both native content and 1080p content that has been "upscaled" by the TV so that it looks better.

And do you know what? The upscaling looked quite good. Again, you really could tell the difference when seeing the same image side-by-side.

We are beginning to see some 4K content. Sony said it is planning to offer a 4K video distribution system in the U.S. sometime this summer and Samsung was showing a Netflix demo of the service delivering 4K. I haven't yet heard plans for any broadcaster to offer 4K content yet, though I did see signs that many hardware vendors have agreed to a new codec (called High Efficiency Video Coding or HEVC), which is likely to be used for compressing 4K and larger videos, a necessary step.

OLEDs, Quantum Dots and Other Special Technologies

Other techniques the vendors are using to differentiate their products include changes to the actual design of the LCD panel itself. Sony touted its "Triluminous LCD," which appears to be Sony's implementation of QD Vision's quantum-dot backlight system, which converts blue LEDs to red and green lights, providing for a larger color gamut.

Sharp showed its IGZO backplane technology, which is says should offer more resolution with less power draw, and its Quattron subpixel technology for approving apparent pixels, though neither was in the 4K sets it was highlighting. As it did last year, Sharp showed an 85-inch 8K set, though content for that probably won't be out until around 2020. (This was used in recent NHK demonstrations.)

Above: Sharp's 8K TV

Of course, enormous UHD LCDs weren't the only TV displays at the show. OLEDs have been shown for the last several years, and while it is still a niche technology, progress does seem to be happening there as well, albeit not as fast as on the LCD front. OLEDs are notable for having much more vibrant colors and deeper blacks than the LCDs. To be fair, though, both Panasonic and Samsung were showing plasma displays that were pretty amazing on that scale. Panasonic's reference design for a Plasma display was as black as I've seen.

LG is currently taking orders for its 55-inch 1080p OLED display, due on sale in March for about $12,000, while Samsung said at the show that its competing OLED TV would be out shortly. Both of these sets look quite good, with a huge color range. Even more impressively, both companies showed "curved OLED" TVs, with a slight, five-degree curve that the companies say provides even better depth perception.

Above: Samsung curved OLED

Both Sony and Panasonic were independently showing what each claimed was "the world's first" UHD OLED displays, both at 56-inches.

Above: Panasonic's 56-inch 4K OLED

Panasonic peddled its RGB printing technology to create its 56-inch 4K OLED, while Samsung flaunted its "super top emission" version. Both looked stunning, but both are just technology demonstrations, not actual products.

OLED TVs may be the future, but real volumes seem a long way off. (Samsung is producing millions of OLED screens for phones, though.) But to me, the story of the show is how 4K TV looks like it will be widely available this year and at much more reasonable prices, especially by the holiday season.

Michael J. Miller's Forward Thinking Blog: forwardthinking.pcmag.com
Michael J. Miller is chief information officer at Ziff Brothers Investments, a private investment firm. From 1991 to 2005, Miller was editor-in-chief of PC Magazine, responsible for the editorial direction, quality, and presentation of the world's largest computer publication.
No investment advice is offered in this blog. All duties are disclaimed. Miller works separately for a private investment firm which may at any time invest in companies whose products are discussed in this blog, and no disclosure of securities transactions...
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