Friday, November 29, 2013

Obama Rescued?

A follow-up to my recent in depth look
at the problems besetting Obamacare finds me indebted to the Sunday
Times again this week.

In a editorial by Andrew Sullivan, the
difficulties facing the President are analysed and prognostications
proposed.

He starts out by reminding us that
second-term crises are not new. Reagan, Nixon, Clinton and Dubbya
all suffered from malaise in their second term. What seems to be
different is the fact that Obama has painted himself into a corner
with his own mouth (pardon the chillingly daft mixed metaphor) by
promising that people can keep their healthcare plans if they like
them. They cannot and if your plan does not meet minimum standards
then you have to get a new one.

Question is – can Obama recover?

Nixon, of course, could not. His
crime? He lied to the people. Is Obama any different?
Categorically? Possibly? Inadvertently? The answer rather depends
on you political persuasion.

Sunday Times: “The first issue is
indeed healthcare. He is attempting something transformative and
immensely difficult in the American context, even though every other
developed country has long since passed the threshold of universal
care.

Americans, after all, are a
conservative bunch – and no-one likes to feel as if their health,
of all things, is being jeopardised by a law that Obama need never
have passed. Many will see their premiums rise. If the federal
website isn't fixed, more and more people are going to go nuts as the
“computer says no”.

If confidence collapses, the critical
cohorts of young people may not join the system, tipping it into an
insurance death spiral, in which there are too many sick people
enrolled and not enough healthy people to balance them out. . . . .

If he succeeds, then, it will be by
the skin of his teeth, and the odds of him clawing back to more than
50% approval are low. But it's worth remembering that the healthcare
law has been declared dead several times. It was never expected to
pass the Congress in 2009, which was already grappling with stimulus
for the Great Recession. It survived – just – but then nearly
collapsed again as the Republicans seized the late Ted Kennedy's
Senate seat and the votes were suddenly in question. After that the
Supreme Court, in a surprise decision, upheld it. The law is close
to being zombie – dead but still alive, and staggering ominously
forward.”

Can the Republicans kill it? Hard to
do up against the Presidential veto.

Moreover the Republicans have yet to
propose any kind of alternative except a return to the status quo –
which has very little support. Even now in the law's darkest hour
there does not seem to be anywhere near a majority for repeal –
according to the Sunday Times.

Back to the Sunday Times: “For all
those currently without adequate healthcare provision it will be a
godsend. For those whose plans are randomly cancelled or changed
just when they need them most it will offer peace of mind.”

Second-term Presidents are always
looking to their legacy. Obamacare is going to be this President's
legacy like it or not. He has no fall-back position – he must make
it work.