“This one is going to be just as big as the (Zach) Parise and (Ryan) Suter because of the economics of it.” -- NHL executive

His is one of those unique situations though, the UFA status will not necessarily garner him more money, since he is still bound by the limitations of the Entry Level Contract framework, which has a maximum base and maximum bonus structure. Here's a good explanation of what Schultz can expect:

Every team that makes an offer on him will do so knowing it will have to absorb a $3.8 million salary cap hit next season - $925,000 in base salary and signing bonus, $850,000 in ‘A’ level bonuses (for achievements such as scoring 10 goals, 25 assists, 40 points, 0.49 points per game and others) and $2 million in ‘B’ level bonuses (for elite performance such as finishing among the top 10 defensemen in goals, assists, points or ice time or being a finalist for the Norris Trophy) – on a two-year deal.

So if the money is more or less the same wherever he goes, the real benefit to Schultz is the ability to choose where he plays. Its been widely speculated that Schultz preference is to play in Canada. Some feel he wants to reunite with former Wisconsin Badger teammates. Others think he will want guaranteed icetime that some blueline thin teams could provide. And then there are those who think it will be the proximity to his hometown of Kelowna BC that will be the determining factor.

Bob McKezie, who has been guessing that Edmonton would be Schultz preference, is reporting otherwise now:

Some NHL teams believe Schultz is destined to end up with his home province Canucks. We should know more in next few days if not sooner.— Bob McKenzie (@TSNBobMcKenzie) June 27, 2012

Justin Schultz

What intrigues me more so is the question why? Why did he in December indicate to the Ducks that everything was hunky-dory, but soon after do a complete three-sixty.Bob Murray, the Ducks' executive vice president and general manager is left shaking his head in confusion as well:

"Yeah, that's a sore spot...huge disappointment. We've drafted fairly well the last few years...we rebuilt and you have a young man like Justin [Schultz] coming along who gave us every indication he wanted to play for us...[we] counted on it."

That type of dissapointment and eventual resigmation did not come quickly for Murray. There was a full court press employed to get Schultz to try to get Schultz to stick to his word. It included having hall of fame ex-Duck, Scott Niedermeyer personally calling Schultz. But to no avail.

Considering the difficult path Schultz faced including a hit to his reputation, why would Schultz subject himself to such an uncomfortable ride on his way to UFA status? What is it about Anaheim that turned him off some completely?

I don't think its a the city itself, Orange County and Southern California is a great place to live and play. The new head coach, Bruce Boudreau, is known as a player's coach. There doesn't seem to be any issues he has with anyone in Ducks management or ownership. The team itself has been relatively competitive over the past few years, though it headed for the links earlier than usual this past season -- but that happens.

What else could it be? If we take a close look at the roster, we'll find that the team is facing a bit of an uncertain future. Since the departure of Niedermeyer and Chris Pronger, and due to the age of Teemu Selanne, the Ducks on-ice flag bearers have really been Corey Perry and Ryan Getzlaf, and to some extent a younger Bobby Ryan. Both Getzlaf and Perry will be UFAs at the end of this coming season, barring a near deal with Anaheim.

What if the uncertainty regarding the Ducks longterm future played a part in turning off Schultz? And, is it possible than that not only is he worried about Perry & Getzlaf flying the Duck coup, but he also knows where they are going?

What if the NHL team (Vancouver) Schultz eventually chooses is also where Getzlaf and possibly Perry may also plan on ending up. In fact, is it possible that Schultz was tipped off in some way, by Getzlaf and or Perry, or someone else in the know.What do we know about Perry & Getzlaf? Perry, despite being a Rocket Richard Trophy winner, one year removed, was widely rumored to be headed to Vancouver during the last all-star break. That deal presumably would include from the Canucks side, Cody Hodgson and Cory Schneider -- not beyond the stretch of the imagination considering Hodgson was eventually traded and Schneider had yet to sub-plant Roberto Luongo.

As for Getzlaf, despite being married to a SoCal girl, and apparently owning a house in Orange County, he makes his off-season home in Kelowna as well. Is it possible the "Kelowna Connection" theory is at work here? Last off-season, I was speculating that Shea Weber was possibly conspiring with his good buddies Josh Gorges and Black Comeau, all three Kelowna residents, to possibly re-unite as free agents in Vancouver, to play closer to home. All three had signed one year deals despite successful performances with their respective clubs -- an indication that all three wanted out.It didn't quite materialize though, as Comeau's game fell apart and was eventually waived and picked up by Calgary. Gorges, on the other hand, ended up signing longterm with Montreal. Weber though seems poised to force a move from Nashville especially with his blueline partner, UFA Ryan Suter, seemingly headed out of town.Is it possible then, that Weber and his Kelowna hockey colleague Getzlaf, both have Vancouver in their sights, and that fellow Kelowna boy Justin Schultz is but a precursor to more monumental free agent signings in Vancouver? Obviously, there are more questions than answers at this point in time. Nevertheless, the hockey enclave that is Kelowna BC, is once again a common denominator in another creative free agency conspiracy theory here.

Monday, June 25, 2012

Media and speculation have the Minnesota Wild preparing to offer Zach Parise a lifetime contract, that will make him one of the highest paid players in the NHL: For instance, this one from Wild beat writer, Mike Russo:

Parise made $6 million this past season, but the Wild, the lowest-scoring team in the NHL last season and desperate for a star, is expected to offer Parise as much as $8-9 million annually.

And then, this tidbit from Charley Walters (whose not known as a regular on the Wild beat):

If need be, the Wild would be willing to offer presumptive New Jersey Devils free agent Zach Parise from Minneapolis a 13-year guaranteed contract.

If it is me, I offer a seven year deal at about $8 million per. My guess? The Wild are ready to pony up more than that...10 years, $9 million per year.

The theme here seems to be $8 to 9m contract anywhere from 10 to 13 years.The range is very relevant because it will effect the eventual cap hit, the number that fans tend to remember and is important to big market clubs as they look to squeeze in as much as possible under the salary cap.

Of course, the cap hit is the annual average value of a deal. It can also be somewhat misleading, as it is possible for Parise for all intents and purposes, to make $9m per year yet have a ~$7m cap hit. Here is an example of such a deal that could be offered to Parise to get him to the total dollars he demainds while keeping the cap hit manageable for an NHL looking to max out their roster (at some point in Minnesota's case):

Essentially, what the above is is Ilya Kovalchuk's actual contract with the last three years lopped off. It would provide Parise with an average salary of $9m for the first 10 years. The last three years could be seen as "optional" years for him to either play through or even retire, given he'll be in his late thirties at that point. Considering his injury history and playing style, it's quite possible Parise will retire before those last years.

And then there is the strategy of front loading. That's when the contract provides the player to get much of the total dollars up front in the first few years of the contract, which is always a nice to have for anyone signing a contract. Russo believes the Wild are willing participants in such a deal:

The Wild, like others, have lots of salary-cap space. Maybe more than the Penguins, the Wild will have the ability to sweeten an offer with frontloaded money.

With some re-sorting of the above, we can make the same offer front loaded, as follows:

Thursday, June 21, 2012

Zach Parise is from MIN and Ryan Suter is from the neighboring state of WI -- they are longtime friends.

Suter played for current MIN majority owner, Craig Leipold, who, like the Suter clan, is originally from Wisconsin.

Suter's agent is a college teammate of MIN Wild major shareholder, Phil Falcone -- they remain very good friends.

MIN acquired Tom Gilbert likely because of his ties to both Parise and Suter (giving MIN the pre-July 1 inside track on communication).

There's more...enter Ryan Suter's wife, beautiful Becky.

Becky Suter

Becky is a business school grad from University of Wisconsin. Ryan Suter met her there during his one and only year playing for the Badgers. She is originally from Minneapolis -- they were married at the golf course a stone's throw away from Zach Parise's new lakeside house in the upscale Minnetonka area).

Shea Weber

Ultimately, it may be Suter's wife responsible for Shea Weber's eventual exit from NSH.

Shea Weber seemed content to sign a multi-year deal with NSH back in 2010. But as contract talks gradually wore on, I suspect his buddy Suter at some point told him, "Hey Shea, I don't know if you really want to sign a long term deal, brah. I think there's a good chance I might be signing elsewhere my deal is up."

I think Suter wants out because he wants to do something nice for his wife, who still lists herself as working for her dad's real estate firm, which is in Minneapolis. It just so happens, Zach Parise is also from Minneapolis and he and Ryan Suter are known to be friends. I think those two have a plan that involves the Wild.

Parise bought a lake front mansion in suburban Minneapolis last summer and will be married, (likely) at the golf course across from his house, to his North Dakota fiancee, Alisha Woods, on July 21. Suter and his wife were married at that same country club a few years ago.

Zach Parise Lake Minnetonka Home

NHL team official:"I am assuming that, at least as of right now, they [Zach Parise & Ryan Suter] are a package deal. They certainly seem to have set it up that way, themselves."

USA Olympic team official:"My sense of what they shared when the team was together is a vision of how the game should be played, how they play their game given their talents and ability and how teams should play. I think that is what a lot of this hot stove, rumor-mill stuff is about: They know the kind of hockey they want to play, and they want to play it together, on a team they will help lead. Now, whether that desire ultimately rules the day is something that will be seen, in time."

Alisha & Zach Parise

So as Parise and Suter's plans started to form, likely over the Olympics, perhaps solidifying last season, Weber's tune started changing last spring about signing longterm in NSH. As you know, he ended up letting the negotiation go to (team elected) arbitration, ultimately picking the one year award instead of the two.

Bailey Munro

I recall hearing on Team 1040 last season, one of the local reporters saying that Weber told him about Vancouver during the Olympics, "this wouldn't be a bad place to play, eh" (or something to that effect). He's also on record as saying Vancouver is his favorite road city because "it's close to home." It's also close to home for his fiancee, Bailey Munro, who like Shea, is a graduate of Kelowna Secondary School.

So there you go, the moral of the story could very well end up being: if you want to know where players are going to sign, check with the wives.

Tuesday, June 19, 2012

Mikhail Grigorenko has been nailed to the wall by NHL scouts despite being diagnosed with mid-season mono (and still playing through it). He didn't have a great playoff and ultimately lost a crucial head to head series matchup with Maritime Wonderboy, Nathan McKinnon, of the Halifax Mooseheads. I think Grigo has been judged a little too harshly, and dropped way to far on B-Mac's list by his Scout contacts.

On my Quick & Dirty 30, Grigorenko stays among the top five top players in this draft. If I'm picking at four, there is no way I pass on a potential superstar. I'll bet on his upside, and trust his KHL desires are absolutely last resort. The alternative is a set of another five or so players with their own questions marks.

On Teuvo Teravainen, though I like the slick Finnish forward, I dropped him slightly to just below Morgan Rielly. Both are on the small side, and thus have their risks as high picks. There is nothing like great hands, wheels and heart to compensate for size, however.

As for how the draft actually shakes out, I have strong suspicion there will be at least one flip of picks among the top five. My hunch is that Islanders GM Garth will take matters into his own hands and remove any risk of coming out of the draft with Ryan Murray. NYI has only 3 starting top four d-men under contract with little prospect of attracting sought-after UFAs. Murray is the most NHL-ready of these draft prospects in my opinion -- exactly what NYI needs. And the price is right as well, an ELC with bonuses that pad the Isle's cap hit, allowing owner Charles Wang to reach the cap floor that much easier.