I think ASIB was vulnerable the moment it was snubbed for Elliot, Screenplay and Score. So I predicted Close (legendary movie star) and Malik (in a movie that was overperforming everywhere) to win over Gaga and Cooper. I guess few people predicted Close to actually win. I’ll be shocked if either of these don’t win the Oscars now, especially Close after that amazing speech.

Also I don’t think Ali is winning the Oscar. I predicted him here because the HFPA clearly loved Green Book and because Ali didn’t win for Moonlight so he was overdue – both of which I don’t think will be factors for the Oscars.

And Ali having won before will be too big a hurdle for him to overcome against Grant, who I think takes the SAG on his way to the Oscars. It’s not like 2012, when Waltz was in an all-winner category.

Regina King winning is so amazing. I never lost faith in her despite her SAG snub. She is coming for that Oscar!!

Poor Amy Adams. I wonder what happened there? I thought for sure she has BSA in the bag after losing on the TV side.

Like I said in the BSA thread, I actually think having won Golden Globe twice already in such a short amount of time hurdled her chances. Had she won one — much less two — she would be a 3 or 4 time Golden Globe winner in just 5 years. That is a crazy stat.

People say there isn’t passion for her but she was trending on Twitter when she didn’t win.

The Oscars will be a bit different because she will be considered overdue there, whereas there is no urgency to reward her for a third Globe. The true test will be SAG.

Also I don’t think Ali is winning the Oscar. I predicted him here because the HFPA clearly loved Green Book and because Ali didn’t win for Moonlight so he was overdue – both of which I don’t think will be factors for the Oscars.

And Ali having won before will be too big a hurdle for him to overcome against Grant, who I think takes the SAG on his way to the Oscars. It’s not like 2012, when Waltz was in an all-winner category.

Regina King winning is so amazing. I never lost faith in her despite her SAG snub. She is coming for that Oscar!!

I agree with you on everything except for Mahersala Ali. I think he will win SAG and then Oscar. Time will tell!

Like I said in the BSA thread, I actually think having won Golden Globe twice already in such a short amount of time hurdled her chances. Had she won one — much less two — she would be a 3 or 4 time Golden Globe winner in just 5 years. That is a crazy stat.

They awarded Jennifer Lawrence 3 Globes in 4 years, so I don’t think this is the case here.

They awarded Jennifer Lawrence 3 Globes in 4 years, so I don’t think this is the case here.

I thought of Lawrence when I read Vuitton’s post as well, but I agree with Vuitton that the test for Adams will be SAG. But then, she’ll have to contend with King at the Oscars, where a possible SAG win won’t be a sign for her as she won’t have been up against King at SAG. Right now King has the upper hand over Adams in BSA so a TV win would have been a lovely consolation prize for a very deserving performance by Adams.