There I was, the last one standing. How had it come to this? Dropping like flies, my allies were strewn across the battlefield; close friends collapsing into lifeless statistics. “We’re too young for war,” I thought. “Not ready.” But I pressed on, as orders must be followed without hesitation in the heat of battle. Preparing one last charge, I muttered beneath my breath:

“Dodgeball sucks.”

Lining the gym walls were my fallen comrades. Would they lift my spirits with loyal cheers? Sadly, no. Perhaps they questioned my leadership, as it was I who convinced them to charge ahead without me, drawing enemy fire in the first wave. For each one’s sacrifice, I promised a reward of 72 virgins in paradise, which my fellow 8-year-olds heard as, “I get 72 of something!” But now? Now they just seemed bitter.

“Ingrates.”

Near as I recall, my body lurched back several feet when struck by that wall of spheres. I laid motionless (except for the twitching), wondering if having the entire front half of my body bruised was actually “bruising” at all…it seemed more like a tan…

I smiled. Barbaric though it was, Dodgeball was fun. Little did I know that, one day, public schools would replace this pastime with “Reparations”—a joyless game where children hit their own heads with a ball while reciting apologies to mistreated demographics.

Admittedly, my memory of that time is sketchy, but I'll never forget the loneliness. Few things are more difficult than watching one’s numbers dwindle before an emboldened enemy. It’s disheartening. It’s crippling. It’s…it’s…the state of today’s Democratic Party.

Our Desperate Opponent

President Obama promised great things to Democrats who stormed ahead with Obamacare. America would embrace a new entitlement. Democrats would be rewarded by grateful voters, keeping them in power until their 90’s. No, the DNC couldn’t find 72 like-minded virgins, but this would still be paradise.

Then came the 2014 midterms, where paradise became slaughter at the hands of delighted Republicans. So things have changed. Sure, the Dems’ prospects look rosier in 2016, when 24 out of 34 Senate elections are for Republican held seats—and Democrat turnout should be up as well. But down 54-46, the Dems are in a bad spot. For them, 2016 must be huge.

Why? Because after 2016 comes 2018. Look below, and you’ll see I’ve detailed vulnerable Senate seats in both years. Some Democrat seats could turn red, while some GOP seats could turn blue. Starting with 2016, I noted four factors indicating danger:

Did the voters of that state elect a governor from the other party?

Did Obama lose that state in 2012 (bad for Dems) or win it (bad for Repubs)?

Does the GOP hold the other Senate seat in that state (bad for Dems), or do the Dems (bad for Repubs)?

Did the incumbent win his/her previous race by 5% or less?

Though circumstances shift, answering “Yes” in two or three categories makes the candidate more vulnerable. A couple “Yesses” are qualified (*), as GOP losses in Indiana and Missouri involved disastrous candidates (Akin and Mourdoch).

Along with these factors, I predict two major items will favor Republicans: Obama fatigue and Obamacare. Add it up, and I see four GOP senators in real danger, a couple more in light danger, and two Democrat senators in medium danger.

And then comes 2018. Oh my. You’ll see I apply the same factors less Obama’s election (he’ll be long gone). Out of 30 seats in play (two others are independent), the Dems hold 22, while the GOP holds 8. But with all the “Yesses” facing Democrats, I see 7 of their seats at risk, and only 1 vulnerable GOP seat.

My prediction: The GOP gains 5-6 seats in 2018. So between the 2014 and 2018 routs, 2016 represents the Democrats’ lone hope. They are desperate. Cornered. In this game, there are too many balls to dodge.

What Should We Do?

Our task is simple: Now that Obama has sacrificed his teammates, we need only limit our 2016 losses to seal their fate. In my article, “What Should We Do If We Win?” I counter the Democrats’ “Control” agenda with our “Choice” agenda, drawing a clear line between us and the Left. Read it over. Should we apply it—or anything close—I believe Democrats will fall well short of their 2016 needs.

Beyond that, just expect a frantic Democratic Party this election cycle. They are angry at their leader. They’re teetering. Desperate. If Democrats lose the White House in 2016 (very possible), the 2018 bloodbath will bring great opportunity, and America could finally begin a long overdue course correction.

So let’s get focused. Where we are divided, let’s aggressively find common ground. Where our messaging struggles, let’s collaborate to strengthen it. No excuses, no power trips, no whining. No more acting like losers. Just pick up those dodgeballs, turn as one toward that shivering Democratic Party, and give them the full body tan they so richly deserve.