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This report analyses the demand for liquid fossil fuels in the EU transport sector over the years 2010 to 2030, notably for the sectors maritime transport and aviation. The estimations are based on figures published in the EU energy transport and GHG trends to 2050 - reference scenario for 2013 that accompanied the 2030 climate package Impact Assessment of the European Commission, as well as on the analysis underlying the European Commission’s Impact Assessment on MRV regulation for the maritime transport sector.

In this letter, the members of the Coalition for Higher Ambition – businesses, cities, trade unions and civil society groups – write to the heads of states and governments ahead of the signing ceremony of the Paris agreement on Friday, 22 April. The coalition urges the EU to adjust 2030 and 2050 greenhouse gas reductions targets to the long-term goals of the Paris agreement. It also highlights the need for strong economy-wide EU targets (including international aviation and shipping).

A coalition of 26 European NGOs has called on European Ministers for Transport and Environment to, at their informal joint meeting next week, support effective measures at international and European level to rein in emissions from international shipping and aviation. Emissions from these sectors are growing rapidly, with aviation responsible for almost 5% of global warming and shipping responsible for 3% of CO2 emissions. Unless action is taken, their growth will undermine the Paris Agreement's objectives. Action must be taken at ICAO and IMO level, and at EU level where the sectors must contribute to the target of reducing emissions by at least 40% by 2030.

The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) is currently engaged in a review of the 2020 target of its ship design efficiency standard (known as the EEDI). One of the main questions being addressed is whether the stringency of the regulation should be retained or amended. Another issue is the effectiveness of existing EEDI targets in driving design efficiency improvements.

In February 2016, the European Commission released a proposal to guarantee its gas supply security and is preparing another one to implement the EU’s 2030 climate targets for the transport, buildings and agriculture sectors. It is also developing a communication to decarbonise the road transport sector, to be announced this summer. To understand what role natural gas could have in achieving these objectives, T&E commissioned a study from Ricardo Energy & Environment to assess the impacts of large-scale use of natural gas in the transport sector.

Aviation emissions are responsible for 5% of global warming and shipping makes up almost 3% of global CO2. These sectors have a CO2 impact equal to the UK and Germany and are continuing to grow rapidly – by up to 270% in 2050, by which time they could account for almost 40% of all emissions. Such emission growth will undermine reductions efforts by all countries and other sectors, effectively making the 1.5/2°C objective impossible to achieve.

In this letter, the Clean Shipping Coalition and the International Coalition for Sustainable Aviation highlight the absence of emissions from international aviation and shipping from the draft Paris COP21 agreement. They call on the UN leadership to act immediately with Parties to the UNFCCC to ensure that the language in previous drafts on aviation and shipping emissions is reinstated - these sectors must adopt credible targets and measures. International aviation and shipping emissions are growing rapidly, and their exclusion will critically undermine efforts to limit a temperature increase to 1.5/2 degrees.

In this letter, T&E and 16 other groups highlight the absence of emissions from international aviation and shipping from the draft Paris COP21 agreement. they call on EU Ministers for climate change and Commissioner Arias Cañete to act immediately with other states to ensure that the language in previous drafts on aviation and shipping emissions is reinstated.

There is little publicly available information on how the design efficiency of ships that have entered the fleet since 2009 has developed. The IMO has published the energy efficiency design index (EEDI) of a limited number of ships launched since 2012, but the sample of ships is small and the time period limited. The published data show clearly, however, that estimated index values (EIV) and EEDIs of ships are well correlated.