Gay marriage leads but nail biter likely: Wash. Poll

The state’s most reliable opinion poll, published on Thursday, finds Referendum 74 with a 21-point lead, but delivers an “adjusted model” predicting a much, much closer statewide vote on same-sex marriage.

The Washington Poll, which interviewed 782 registered voters, has probed and found what University of Washington political scientist calls a “social desirability bias” — people who say they are for marriage equality but are likely to vote against it.

Inslee

Cosponsored with KCTS-TV, the poll found a tight-as-a-tick race for governor. Democrat Jay Inslee has a 47.9 percent to 44.7 percent lead over Republican Rob McKenna among likely voters. With likely voters, it’s almost even — 47.1 percent Inslee, 46.3 percent McKenna.

The governor’s race, and the race for president, show a mirror effect among Washington’s 3.88 million voters, 81 percent of whom are likely to vote, according to Secretary of State Sam Reed.

Inslee has a 57.4-37.7 percent lead over McKenna in the Puget Sound region, but McKenna leads 57.3-34.4 in Eastern Washington. President Obama enjoys a 51.9-42.9 lead over Mitt Romney, taking 60.3 percent of the Puget Sound area vote but just 34.3 percent east of the “Cascade Curtain.”

In its latest survey, 48 percent of likely voters say they are “certain” to vote for Referendum 74, with 4 percent answering “Yes-could change” and 2.1 percent undecided but leaning “Yes.” Just 31 percent of registered voters, and 34 percent of likely voters, told the poll they were certain to vote No.

The result? A seemingly “safe” 56.3-35.6 advantage among registered voters, and a 54.1-38.4 lead with likely voters.

In 2009, however, when Washington voted on civil unions for same-sex couples, the Washington Poll found the Yes side 17 points ahead. The measure won on election day by just 6.5 points.

With popular support on the upswing, some voters are “uncomfortable” and “less honest” telling a poll-taker they will vote No. “We went out and looked for patterns of inconsistency in the answers,” Barreto said.

The result is an “adjusted vote estimate”: 52.9 percent in favor of Referendum 74, 46.6 percent opposed.

Ref. 74 faces what’s known, in political circles, as the “Bradley effect.” Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley ran for governor of California in 1982. Bradley is African-American. He was ahead in the opinion polls. At the polls, however, Bradley registered less support among white voters — and narrowly lost.

In political circles, RefereyuNo state has ever approved same-sex marriage at the polls. Three states — Maryland, Maine and Washington — are voting on marriage equality this year. Minnesota is voting on a state constitutional amendment that would ban gay marriage.

A poll by The Washington Post, released Thursday, found marriage equality leading by a 52-43 percent margin. But the Post, too, noted:

“Historically, opposition to same-sex marriage at the ballot box has been stronger than polls suggested, and an expected ad blitz from opponents in Maryland has barely begun.”

The Post found some fascinating breakdowns. Marriage equality was favored by a 56-39 percent margin among white voters, but is losing 42-53 percent with the state’s large African-American constituency. It leads 65-31 percent in affluent, largely white Montgomery County, just north of Washington, D.C. But it loses 43-52 percent in nearby Prince Georges County, a large middle-class African American constituency.

The Washington Poll shows two statewide initiatives just under the 50 percent mark seen as an indication of very likely passage.

Initiative 502, which would legalize and regulate sale of marijuana, is ahead 47.1 percent to 40.1 percent among likely voters. Puget Sound likes it by a 56-34.9 percent margin. Despite extensive illegal marijuana grow operations, Eastern Washington isn’t high on Initiative 502: It opposes the measure by a 41.1-53 percent margin.

The “billionaires blitz” of TV ads for Charter Schools has yet to entirely persuade the public. Initiative 1240 is ahead by a 48.8 -40.1 percent margin. Just 343.6 percent of likely voters say they are certain to vote for the measure. Populous Puget Sound backs it by the barest of 43.5-42.8 percent margins.

Just one Western Washington politician makes a serious dent in the “Cascade Curtain.”

Two-term U.S. Sen. Maria Cantwell is soaring in the Washington Poll, with a 57.7-35.4 percent lead among the state’s likely voters.

Cantwell gets nearly two-thirds of the Puget Sound vote, to less than 30 percent for challenger, State Sen. Michael Baumgartner of Spokane.

In Eastern Washington, Baumgartner’s home turf, Cantwell manages 45.1 percent support and is barely behind 46.8 percent for Baumgartner.

Tim Eyman’s Initiative 1185, which would require “supermajorities” in the Legislature to raise taxes or close corporate loopholes, appears headed to victory with 54.1 percent among likely Washington voters.

President Obama has used Washington mainly as an ATM machine, jetting in on Air Force One to do pricey $35,800-a-couple fundraisers at the homes of wealthy Eastsiders. He has taken noticeably less interest in the state than previous Democratic presidents.

Yet, the Evergreen State likes the 44th president, according to the Washington Poll: 53.7 percent of those surveyed have a “favorable” view of Obama, just 43.3 percent unfavorable. The president is right at 50 percent in most national polls.

Mitt Romney has not made a favorable impression here: The Republican challenger’s “favorables” stand at just 41.6 percent, while 53 percent take an unfavorable view of Romney.