Fantasy Football: The Report, Week 14

What is The Report? It's a comprehensive, statistical look at how teams and players are functioning offensively, with notes as to what it all means for the fantasy football future. Each week, The Report will feature charts on team play-calling tendencies, player usage close to the end zone, deep ball rates, and so much more. With added commentary, the purpose is to not only hand you information, but provide actionable information to crush both season-long and daily fantasy football.

Let's dig into Week 14's report.

Team Play-Calling

Team

Pass Att

Rush Att

Ratio

+/- Ratio

RZ Plays

RZ Ratio

GL Plays

GL Ratio

ARI

353

270

1.31

1.12

67

1.23

13

0.86

ATL

468

249

1.88

2.03

99

1.61

32

1.46

BAL

461

376

1.23

1.14

123

0.92

27

0.69

BUF

369

349

1.06

0.97

85

0.73

19

0.73

CAR

403

306

1.32

1.34

108

0.93

32

0.68

CHI

399

339

1.18

1.21

106

1.30

29

0.93

CIN

440

244

1.80

1.67

86

1.87

24

1.40

CLE

440

320

1.38

1.36

87

1.12

28

0.56

DAL

365

335

1.09

1.24

110

1.20

29

0.81

DEN

413

297

1.39

1.49

95

1.26

23

0.92

DET

446

286

1.56

1.55

118

1.36

20

0.67

GB

471

256

1.84

1.78

94

1.94

18

2.00

HOU

365

378

0.97

1.10

120

1.45

36

1.77

IND

494

294

1.68

1.88

133

1.71

37

1.85

JAX

424

322

1.32

1.15

86

1.21

19

0.73

KC

429

297

1.44

1.71

133

1.51

40

0.74

LAC

384

304

1.26

1.45

105

1.14

22

1.00

LAR

416

345

1.21

1.39

165

0.99

34

0.55

MIA

358

287

1.25

1.21

64

1.00

8

3.00

MIN

491

253

1.94

1.75

94

2.03

20

1.86

NE

437

352

1.24

1.43

136

0.97

40

0.48

NO

391

363

1.08

1.36

166

0.98

55

0.67

NYG

438

250

1.75

1.50

120

1.45

30

1.00

NYJ

398

307

1.30

1.24

73

1.21

10

1.00

OAK

426

287

1.48

1.31

107

1.14

26

0.73

PHI

452

298

1.52

1.56

129

1.08

24

0.85

PIT

522

263

1.98

1.97

106

1.59

33

0.65

SEA

326

380

0.86

0.87

105

1.06

22

0.83

SF

399

330

1.21

1.22

125

1.02

32

0.68

TB

479

301

1.59

1.42

129

1.35

31

1.07

TEN

338

334

1.01

1.17

105

1.02

25

0.56

WAS

403

313

1.29

1.44

93

0.90

21

0.40

The Pittsburgh Steelers currently own the highest pass-to-rush ratio in football, throwing the ball nearly two times for every rush. It's no surprise, then, that they've run the ball just 263 times this season, the sixth-fewest in the NFL. With James Connersidelined for Week 14, we'll more than likely see somewhat of a split backfield between Jaylen Samuels and Stevan Ridley for Pittsburgh. But considering Pittsburgh's splits, it's easy to side with Samuels, who entered the league as sort of a hybrid player, having played all over the place in college. He's even tight end-eligible in your Yahoo! fantasy league. The real issue is that Ridley could steal goal-line work, capping Samuels' upside.

Over the last two weeks, we've seen Buffalo's neutral script pass-to-rush attempt ratio jump by 0.07. That may not seem significant, but heading into Week 12, they were sitting at 0.90, and over the team's last two games, it's been 1.16. Keep in mind, those are the two games where we've seen Josh Allen under center. Maybe they're growing confident in his abilities, or at least allowing him to do more and learn. That's not a bad thing at all for fantasy football.

Since Lamar Jackson took over as starter for Baltimore, they've been (predictably) more run-heavy. After Week 10, they had a 1.69 (nice) ratio overall, and a 1.71 pass-to-rush attempt ratio when the game was within six points. Over Jackson's three starts, those numbers are 0.48 and 0.57, respectively. You can see it in the chart -- those two numbers are insanely low. Only the Seahawks and Texans have an overall pass-to-rush ratio south of 1.00 this year, so Baltimore is way under the norm with Lamar Jackson. And that's hurt all pass-catchers on the team in fantasy as a result.

Schedule-Adjusted Net Expected Points

To learn more about numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) metric, check out the glossary. (Note: Negative figures for defense are good.)

Team

Adj NEP

Adj Pass NEP

Adj Rush NEP

Adj D NEP

Adj D Pass NEP

Adj D Rush NEP

ARI

-84.00

-63.36

-16.25

48.78

39.76

18.53

ATL

109.27

105.83

-10.55

147.38

105.02

42.35

BAL

59.55

22.84

20.14

-19.05

-3.94

-12.96

BUF

-52.88

-68.99

15.55

17.64

8.77

0.80

CAR

102.36

55.36

45.17

105.79

92.28

12.34

CHI

90.21

47.59

19.96

1.65

22.72

-24.98

CIN

56.03

52.47

-0.85

105.09

76.30

41.53

CLE

1.35

-4.26

1.63

5.37

3.86

14.24

DAL

37.67

10.59

37.76

25.54

36.50

-19.33

DEN

74.02

54.49

30.52

13.01

20.48

9.55

DET

56.62

42.24

9.12

122.30

94.25

25.69

GB

104.57

69.11

38.85

111.39

70.07

34.62

HOU

86.86

74.08

11.43

39.89

49.00

-20.38

IND

109.59

91.90

12.87

91.24

83.75

-1.82

JAX

-2.12

11.00

1.19

30.95

18.03

2.98

KC

211.63

180.27

28.25

119.23

54.43

44.13

LAC

193.30

139.15

53.22

53.13

25.31

28.82

LAR

158.90

145.30

27.70

48.43

25.42

18.40

MIA

14.98

18.04

-1.65

137.74

87.95

35.93

MIN

36.34

70.21

-27.53

7.65

30.38

-20.40

NE

161.47

121.02

35.78

57.47

51.41

14.62

NO

204.96

159.84

25.73

64.41

54.53

-2.13

NYG

49.02

46.50

11.27

91.49

69.61

21.54

NYJ

-51.23

-40.90

3.64

71.51

54.43

25.43

OAK

24.47

45.46

-9.34

136.00

100.62

47.84

PHI

66.92

46.47

14.07

72.90

50.76

26.74

PIT

140.00

124.87

16.81

49.90

36.40

8.36

SEA

111.18

87.82

30.30

59.61

50.21

-6.02

SF

-0.68

4.52

-13.12

106.68

85.40

10.07

TB

92.22

96.93

-4.17

119.69

98.24

24.07

TEN

49.77

46.72

7.87

82.85

71.69

24.36

WAS

13.72

-12.27

29.76

61.19

46.03

15.39

As usual, there's not a lot of change within the expected points chart this week. One swap was Baltimore becoming the league's best secondary, and they actually rank as the only team with a negative schedule-adjusted Net Expected Points total within the pass defense category. They'll be in Kansas City this week against numberFire's top-rated passing offense, so it'll make for an awesome matchup.

Team Pass Defense Splits

The chart below displays the raw number of yards and the percentage of yards allowed by pass defense to wide receivers, tight ends, and running backs.

Arizona hasn't given up a ton of yards through the air this year, and that includes to wide receivers. They rank ninth-best in yards allowed to the position. But (and this is the reason for the chart), a hefty 64.3% of their passing yards allowed have gone to wideouts. That's 11th-highest in the league. Detroit wide receivers are still in play this week given they're just two-point favorites, so the game script should be fairly neutral.

Looking at the chart, it's obvious that New Orleans struggles against wide receivers. That gives the Buccaneers a plus matchup in Week 14, as no group of wide receivers has produced more receiving yards than Tampa Bay's. And it's not close, either -- they have nearly 400 more yards receiving than the second-place Los Angeles Rams. Considering this game is being played in Tampa Bay this week, you can confidently start Jameis Winston and his wideouts.

Larry Fitzgerald is kind of an interesting fantasy option this week. He hasn't been super reliable with just two games of over 50 yards this season, but he's going up against Detroit, a team that's allowed the second-most yards to slot receivers this year, per Pro Football Focus. And with Christian Kirk now on IR, more targets could go Fitz's way.

You've got to start Adam Thielen this week, but his matchup against Seattle isn't exactly a fun one. They've only allowed one slot touchdown this year while giving up the second-fewest yards to slot receivers. And as you can see in the chart, they're pretty average against wide receivers in general while surrendering a high percentage of yards to opposing running backs. Again, you can't bench Thielen, but there's some worry that he plays below his norm.

The Raiders have given up the second-most receiving yards to tight ends this year, but they've allowed a staggering 30.0% of their passing yards to go to the position. That's the highest rate in football. With the Steelers having a pass-friendly approach this year, this bodes well for Vance McDonald.

Team Directional Rushing

All numbers below reflect yards per play.

I mentioned the Steelers' running back situation at the top, and a reason you should be interested in said situation is because Oakland's been really bad against the run this year. According to numberFire's expected points model, only two teams have allowed a higher Success Rate (the percentage of positive expected point plays) to running backs this season. So it's a great matchup for both Samuels and Ridley.

Justin Jackson only played about 22% of Los Angeles' snaps on Sunday, but he was easily the most effective back on the team. Austin Ekeler had just 21 yards on 13 carries, while Jackson went for 63 on 8. We should probably expect an uptick in snaps this week, and considering the Chargers are 14-point favorites, they'll likely see a nice positive game script. That means more potential volume for Jackson against a team that ranks 31st in Success Rate against running backs this year.

The Patriots shouldn't have much trouble running on the Dolphins this week. They've been below-average against the run all over the field this year, all while surrendering top-10 numbers to the position in fantasy. Start James White and Sony Michel confidently.

Like Mahomes versus the Baltimore secondary, we've got another best-versus-best type matchup with Todd Gurley going up against the Bears. Success Rate has Chicago as the top-ranked defense, and on a per-rush basis, only three teams have been more efficient at stopping the run. You can't leave Gurley on your bench, of course, but like Adam Thielen above, he's someone who you may need to downgrade slightly this week. And by downgrade, I mean "he's not the obvious top running back play."

Running Back Usage

Player

Att

Rush %

Targets

Target %

Snap %

Last Wk Rate

RZ Att

RZ Targets

GL Att

Todd Gurley

233

67.54%

61

14.66%

85.4%

94.2%

61

16

20

Saquon Barkley

195

78.00%

91

20.78%

84%

79.2%

38

13

13

Christian McCaffrey

163

53.27%

92

22.83%

97.2%

100%

32

13

11

Alvin Kamara

161

44.35%

84

21.48%

66.5%

67.3%

42

23

14

James Conner

201

76.43%

68

13.03%

81.1%

72.1%

34

7

17

Ezekiel Elliott

240

71.64%

68

18.63%

89.2%

88.7%

31

14

8

Melvin Gordon

153

50.33%

60

15.63%

64.5%

N/A

20

13

3

James White

76

21.59%

103

23.57%

58.3%

44.6%

16

18

6

Tarik Cohen

74

21.83%

77

19.30%

46.2%

51.2%

10

11

1

Phillip Lindsay

154

51.85%

32

7.75%

44.2%

42.4%

20

5

6

David Johnson

205

75.93%

51

14.45%

81.9%

83.9%

23

7

7

Joe Mixon

154

63.11%

42

9.55%

62.4%

57.4%

19

6

7

T.J. Yeldon

100

31.06%

74

17.45%

59.4%

60.3%

12

5

2

Adrian Peterson

192

61.34%

20

4.96%

47.9%

35.6%

27

2

8

Kenyan Drake

96

33.45%

59

16.48%

57.9%

54.5%

11

6

1

Aaron Jones

112

43.75%

32

6.79%

49.7%

51.3%

18

3

4

Tevin Coleman

128

51.41%

40

8.55%

57.5%

54.7%

15

9

6

Nick Chubb

131

40.94%

16

3.64%

30.9%

47.4%

17

4

7

Matt Breida

132

40.00%

25

6.27%

38.6%

13.2%

21

4

6

Lamar Miller

176

46.56%

27

7.40%

59.6%

53.9%

25

2

6

Austin Ekeler

83

27.30%

47

12.24%

39.6%

77.8%

13

4

3

Kerryon Johnson

118

41.26%

39

8.74%

42.8%

N/A

17

6

2

Isaiah Crowell

141

45.93%

27

6.78%

43.4%

63.8%

16

1

3

Dion Lewis

135

40.42%

51

15.09%

65.5%

58.8%

20

6

3

Nyheim Hines

73

24.83%

60

12.15%

47.6%

60.5%

18

7

2

Jalen Richard

36

12.54%

67

15.73%

39.2%

42.1%

4

4

1

Chris Carson

157

41.32%

17

5.21%

42.2%

58.6%

22

3

8

Jordan Howard

178

52.51%

20

5.01%

58%

41.5%

25

3

11

Marlon Mack

117

39.80%

18

3.64%

49.1%

36.8%

20

2

7

Latavius Murray

111

43.87%

24

4.89%

50.5%

19.7%

13

2

3

Peyton Barber

169

56.15%

21

4.38%

55%

61.5%

27

5

10

LeSean McCoy

143

40.97%

39

10.57%

57.7%

75%

18

1

4

Alex Collins

114

30.32%

21

4.56%

37.8%

N/A

21

5

6

Duke Johnson

28

8.75%

47

10.68%

40.9%

35.1%

3

6

0

Sony Michel

144

40.91%

11

2.52%

28.6%

40.5%

30

1

11

Mark Ingram

97

26.72%

18

4.60%

46%

40.4%

16

0

11

Mike Davis

90

23.68%

29

8.90%

38.5%

17.2%

15

1

3

Derrick Henry

128

38.32%

15

4.44%

35.8%

41.2%

22

1

7

Javorius Allen

41

10.90%

43

9.33%

34.1%

N/A

11

6

6

Theo Riddick

19

6.64%

62

13.90%

41.8%

52.8%

7

10

0

Leonard Fournette

90

27.95%

14

3.30%

35.7%

N/A

14

2

7

Frank Gore

139

48.43%

15

4.19%

42.1%

36.4%

13

3

1

Corey Clement

67

22.48%

25

5.53%

31.4%

30.7%

16

2

1

Ito Smith

70

28.11%

25

5.34%

31.2%

45.3%

18

2

4

Giovani Bernard

44

18.03%

37

8.41%

42.3%

41.2%

6

1

2

Dalvin Cook

74

29.25%

32

6.52%

55.8%

77%

9

1

1

Doug Martin

105

36.59%

19

4.46%

28.4%

52.6%

18

1

7

Marshawn Lynch

90

31.36%

20

4.69%

50.4%

N/A

15

5

3

Wendell Smallwood

63

21.14%

25

5.53%

31.2%

2.7%

10

5

1

Royce Freeman

96

32.32%

7

1.69%

27.1%

35.6%

16

0

3

LeGarrette Blount

113

39.51%

7

1.57%

26.1%

41.7%

23

0

10

Alfred Blue

128

33.86%

16

4.38%

41.7%

47.4%

11

2

3

Chris Thompson

29

9.27%

39

9.68%

28.5%

64.4%

3

4

2

Rashaad Penny

73

19.21%

12

3.68%

20.7%

20.7%

9

1

1

Devontae Booker

26

8.75%

34

8.23%

28.8%

22%

2

3

0

Chris Ivory

89

25.50%

19

5.15%

30.6%

16.7%

8

0

2

Spencer Ware

36

12.12%

18

4.20%

26.2%

69%

11

2

5

Let's talk about this Chiefs backfield. Without Kareem Hunt, Spencer Ware played 69% of the team's snaps and handled about 47% of the team's rushes. The snap rate wasn't horrendous, but KC was giving Hunt a 68% rushing share. That's a little worrisome, especially with the signing of Charcandrick West this week. Ware is still the guy you want in the backfield, but he's also rushed to a sub-30% Success Rate this year, which is far below average. Let's not pretend he's got this role locked up.

Chris Thompson returned in Week 14, and in a negative game script, he played over 64% of the team's snaps. He's not someone you can really trust in fantasy, but he's going to hurt Adrian Peterson's value -- Peterson saw his lowest snap rate since Week 5 on Monday night. With Mark Sanchez under center and an offensive line that's got issues, it's a backfield -- and offense, really -- that you should be avoiding.

Dalvin Cook has carried the ball either 9 or 10 times in his four games since returning from injury, but he's yet to find the end zone on the ground. Part of that is because he's had just one goal-line rush all season long. It doesn't help that Minnesota is the third-most pass-heavy team within their opponent's five-yard line this year, but it's making Cook tough to trust in non-PPR formats. In PPR leagues, he's fine enough, having seen 20 targets over the last four games. And this week, he'll face Seattle, a team that's seen 23.3% of their receiving yards allowed go to running backs. That's the second-highest rate in the league.

For whatever reason, the Packers decided that they wanted a split backfield against in Week 13. After seeing snap rates of at least 74% from Weeks 10 to 12, Aaron Jones played 51.3% of Green Bay's snaps this past Sunday, carrying the ball just 11 times. Jamaal Williams had seven carries, when he had totaled five attempts across the three games prior to Sunday. Why did this happen? Only Mike McCarthy knows. Fortunately, a coaching change could make Jones -- the objectively better runner between the two -- super relevant once again.

Wide Receiver Usage

Player

Targets

Target %

Snap %

Last Wk Rate

RZ Targets

< 10 Targets

GL Targets

Adam Thielen

136

27.70%

97%

100%

17

6

5

Davante Adams

127

26.96%

94%

94.7%

25

6

2

Antonio Brown

135

25.86%

94.9%

98.5%

16

6

2

Tyreek Hill

100

23.31%

88.4%

88.7%

12

6

4

Michael Thomas

105

26.85%

88%

98.1%

21

11

6

DeAndre Hopkins

114

31.23%

99.3%

98.7%

17

13

8

Julio Jones

133

28.42%

81.3%

77.4%

9

5

3

Odell Beckham

124

28.31%

93.7%

91.7%

20

8

5

JuJu Smith-Schuster

119

22.80%

84.2%

88.2%

23

8

6

Keenan Allen

113

29.43%

83.4%

92.1%

12

6

3

Mike Evans

105

21.92%

83.9%

87.7%

10

4

2

Stefon Diggs

120

24.44%

81.9%

77%

13

6

4

Robert Woods

99

23.80%

96.5%

95.7%

10

8

3

Tyler Boyd

97

22.05%

88.9%

97.1%

8

2

1

Emmanuel Sanders

98

23.73%

84.3%

67.8%

11

5

3

Brandin Cooks

90

21.63%

90%

95.7%

13

6

2

Tyler Lockett

56

17.18%

84.2%

69%

6

3

0

Kenny Golladay

92

20.63%

91.7%

97.2%

13

6

3

T.Y. Hilton

86

17.41%

78.2%

86.8%

14

9

7

Calvin Ridley

71

15.17%

60.5%

64.2%

7

3

2

Golden Tate

96

21.24%

69.6%

48%

10

7

2

Corey Davis

91

26.92%

89.3%

95.6%

14

8

4

Jarvis Landry

120

27.27%

88.2%

80.7%

16

5

3

A.J. Green

77

17.50%

60.9%

25%

14

6

5

DeSean Jackson

70

14.61%

49.6%

N/A

5

1

0

Chris Godwin

67

13.99%

58.9%

80%

12

9

3

Amari Cooper

71

N/A

77.7%

78.9%

11

7

2

Adam Humphries

73

15.24%

68.1%

63.1%

9

4

3

Sterling Shepard

76

17.35%

92.4%

80.6%

15

5

4

Cooper Kupp

56

13.46%

72%

N/A

12

7

0

Dede Westbrook

71

16.75%

74.8%

87.9%

9

3

0

Larry Fitzgerald

77

21.81%

90.8%

96.8%

11

5

4

Demaryius Thomas

70

19.18%

75.9%

78.9%

11

4

3

Julian Edelman

69

15.79%

87.9%

89.2%

14

8

3

D.J. Moore

56

13.90%

60.8%

94.3%

2

1

0

John Brown

79

17.14%

65.2%

53.1%

11

5

2

Taylor Gabriel

76

19.05%

79.8%

91.5%

6

5

3

Christian Kirk

68

19.26%

79.1%

85.5%

5

2

0

Allen Robinson

71

17.79%

75.6%

85.4%

9

4

2

Mohamed Sanu

62

13.25%

77.7%

83%

4

2

2

Josh Gordon

60

13.73%

68.6%

64.9%

7

4

2

Michael Crabtree

89

19.31%

67.6%

43.2%

9

4

1

Devin Funchess

71

17.62%

73.5%

45.7%

11

7

4

Mike Williams

42

10.94%

61.9%

54%

8

5

1

Alshon Jeffery

65

14.38%

80.3%

88%

11

4

2

Marvin Jones

62

13.90%

72.8%

N/A

11

6

1

Sammy Watkins

55

12.82%

58.8%

N/A

10

4

0

Tyrell Williams

44

11.46%

74%

79.4%

3

1

1

Nelson Agholor

79

17.48%

89.3%

86.7%

9

4

2

Zay Jones

69

18.70%

86.7%

91.7%

12

4

2

Willie Snead

80

17.35%

67.1%

81.5%

5

0

0

Donte Moncrief

70

16.51%

78.3%

77.6%

6

4

3

Anthony Miller

50

12.53%

64.1%

69.5%

10

5

2

Cole Beasley

64

17.53%

65.3%

66.2%

8

3

1

Will Fuller

45

12.33%

77%

N/A

5

3

2

Danny Amendola

62

17.32%

75.4%

N/A

1

1

0

Courtland Sutton

59

14.29%

72.3%

69.5%

4

2

1

Jordy Nelson

51

11.97%

78%

90.8%

6

4

1

Antonio Callaway

62

14.09%

69.2%

71.9%

6

3

2

In a plus matchup, Courtland Sutton caught more than three passes in a game this season. He found the end zone against Cincinnati, too, which was a big plus, and his seven Week 13 targets were a season (and career) high. The Broncos have a pretty favorable schedule for the passing offense through Week 16, so Sutton could work as a flex option in 12-plus team formats.

Since Golden Tate joined the Eagles, Alshon Jeffery has a 14.5% target share in the Philly offense. In Jeffery's five other games prior -- the other five he's played this year -- his target share was 23.4%. This more than likely isn't a simple coincidence: Jeffery's value has dipped dramatically with the extra piece in the offense. You can't really trust him right now in your fantasy lineup.

Lockett's now scored in all but three games this year, giving him a touchdown on every 4.9 receptions. The league average at wide receiver this year is a touchdown on every 11.6 receptions. He's seen more than five targets just once since Doug Baldwin returned to the lineup. As reliable as he appears to be -- he just keeps finding the end zone -- he's kind of not.

Tight End Usage

Player

Targets

Target %

Snap %

Last Wk Rate

RZ Targets

< 10 Targets

GL Targets

Travis Kelce

114

26.57%

95.3%

97.2%

20

10

5

Zach Ertz

121

26.77%

93.7%

78.7%

19

7

3

Eric Ebron

88

17.81%

57.9%

76.3%

19

5

3

George Kittle

93

23.31%

85.5%

88.2%

12

7

4

Jared Cook

78

18.31%

73.6%

72.4%

12

9

3

Austin Hooper

73

15.60%

80.3%

71.7%

12

9

4

O.J. Howard

48

10.02%

60.8%

N/A

7

4

2

Jordan Reed

83

20.60%

64.4%

68.9%

7

5

1

Trey Burton

54

13.53%

81.3%

81.7%

11

7

3

Jimmy Graham

72

15.29%

75.2%

71.1%

8

4

4

David Njoku

69

15.68%

80.1%

80.7%

4

3

1

Kyle Rudolph

59

12.02%

88.1%

98.4%

11

6

3

Vance McDonald

56

10.73%

55.9%

64.7%

5

2

1

Rob Gronkowski

54

12.36%

76.1%

98.6%

5

2

0

Chris Herndon

40

10.05%

49.1%

71%

4

0

0

Greg Olsen

38

9.43%

68.8%

18.6%

6

3

3

C.J. Uzomah

51

11.59%

83.3%

98.5%

4

3

2

Jesse James

35

6.70%

55.3%

48.5%

5

2

1

Mark Andrews

37

8.03%

34.7%

39.5%

6

3

1

Ben Watson

36

9.21%

49.4%

38.5%

9

6

4

Jeff Heuerman

48

11.62%

76.9%

N/A

12

7

2

Cameron Brate

36

7.52%

41.4%

67.7%

9

3

2

Jonnu Smith

31

9.17%

79%

70.6%

5

5

2

Vernon Davis

29

7.20%

47%

51.1%

1

0

0

Evan Engram

33

7.53%

52.3%

N/A

5

1

1

Ricky Seals-Jones

56

15.86%

63.1%

35.5%

3

2

1

Dallas Goedert

31

6.86%

44.1%

52%

5

1

1

Gerald Everett

30

7.21%

26.1%

34.8%

8

5

1

Ricky Seals-Jones wasn't doing a whole lot with his high target share earlier in the season, but that share has taken a hit of late, as he's seen just eight targets over his last three games. He's not playing as much, and he can safely be dropped in the deeper leagues where he's still rostered.

C.J. Uzomah has 19 targets over his last two games, but he's had fewer than 40 yards receiving in both contests. According to Pro Football Focus, no tight end has run more routes than Uzomah over the last two weeks. So his peripherals are there to have a big outing, but the situation continues to not be ideal given the backup quarterback who's under center.

Without O.J. Howard over the last two weeks, Cameron Brate has 10 targets, accounting for 14.7% of the Bucs' pass attempts. That's totally average, but he's top-six in the league in routes run, which means he's at least providing the potential for more volume. It's not time to panic by any means, especially at the horrendous tight end position.

Deep Ball Passing

Player

15+ Yd Att

15+ Yd Att %

15+ Comp %

15+ % of Tot Yds

15+ Yd TD %

Josh Allen

57

29.84%

28.07%

39.74%

60.00%

Ryan Fitzpatrick

65

26.42%

53.85%

44.13%

35.29%

Mitchell Trubisky

78

24.30%

37.18%

36.90%

30.00%

Baker Mayfield

84

23.73%

46.43%

37.29%

27.78%

Patrick Mahomes

96

22.38%

50.00%

36.91%

24.39%

Jameis Winston

50

21.55%

44.00%

27.15%

25.00%

Aaron Rodgers

97

20.95%

43.30%

39.04%

33.33%

Jared Goff

86

20.77%

51.16%

33.32%

25.93%

Josh Rosen

55

20.15%

41.82%

36.65%

40.00%

Russell Wilson

65

19.94%

50.77%

38.18%

44.83%

Sam Darnold

57

19.72%

38.60%

32.06%

45.45%

Matt Ryan

87

18.91%

44.83%

29.39%

24.00%

Marcus Mariota

51

18.61%

49.02%

30.86%

18.18%

Alex Smith

61

18.60%

32.79%

25.32%

20.00%

Joe Flacco

70

18.47%

34.29%

25.72%

16.67%

Philip Rivers

69

18.16%

56.52%

33.18%

32.14%

Eli Manning

79

18.12%

46.84%

31.60%

20.00%

Tom Brady

76

17.51%

43.42%

27.77%

30.00%

Deshaun Watson

62

17.03%

46.77%

26.39%

23.81%

Cam Newton

68

17.00%

38.24%

19.91%

20.83%

Andy Dalton

62

16.99%

43.55%

27.32%

28.57%

Ryan Tannehill

30

16.85%

30.00%

24.45%

46.15%

Drew Brees

64

16.67%

59.38%

33.20%

30.00%

Josh McCown

18

16.51%

22.22%

17.44%

0.00%

Ben Roethlisberger

85

16.44%

37.65%

28.85%

42.31%

Carson Wentz

60

16.26%

40.00%

25.83%

16.67%

Brock Osweiler

28

15.73%

35.71%

22.21%

16.67%

Andrew Luck

75

15.34%

44.00%

26.67%

21.88%

Case Keenum

63

15.33%

46.03%

31.53%

35.71%

Blake Bortles

56

15.18%

37.50%

24.49%

30.77%

Kirk Cousins

69

14.05%

43.48%

23.30%

39.13%

Dak Prescott

51

14.01%

41.18%

25.27%

28.57%

Matthew Stafford

60

13.67%

46.67%

26.73%

27.78%

Derek Carr

56

13.27%

41.07%

21.75%

25.00%

Lamar Jackson

10

12.99%

50.00%

29.26%

50.00%

Nick Mullens

14

9.93%

57.14%

20.05%

14.29%

As I noted earlier, Baltimore's been incredible run-heavy with Lamar Jackson at quarterback. They've also been very conservative when he's dropped back to pass. Just 13% of his throws are traveling 15 or more air yards, which is a higher rate than only Nick Mullens. This is just another reason Baltimore pass-catchers are ruined in fantasy football with Jackson under center, especially John Brown, who's a deep-ball specialist.

Josh Allen continues to set the pace in deep-ball rate, and his percentage of passes going deep increased pretty dramatically in Week 13, as he tossed it 15-plus air yards on 14 of his 33 attempts (42.2%). His ability in real football will keep getting questioned, but in fantasy, he's pretty damn fun.

Running Back Touchdown Regression

Regression analysis doesn't always have to be so complicated. As you'd expect, there's a decent correlation between yards gained and touchdowns scored. The regression analysis in The Report looks at running back and wide receiver yards gained, shows how many touchdowns they've scored, and then finds how many touchdowns they should have scored based on trends from the last seven NFL seasons.

Player

Rush Yds

TD

Should Have

Difference

Rec Yds

TD

Should Have

Difference

Total Difference

Todd Gurley

1175

15

7.86

7.14

474

4

2.07

1.93

9.06

Alvin Kamara

742

11

4.97

6.03

555

4

2.43

1.57

7.61

Kareem Hunt

824

7

5.52

1.48

378

7

1.65

5.35

6.83

Melvin Gordon

802

9

5.37

3.63

453

4

1.98

2.02

5.65

James White

329

4

2.20

1.80

659

6

2.88

3.12

4.92

James Conner

909

12

6.08

5.92

467

1

2.04

-1.04

4.87

Alex Collins

411

7

2.75

4.25

105

1

0.46

0.54

4.79

Nick Chubb

694

7

4.64

2.36

133

2

0.58

1.42

3.77

Kenyan Drake

439

4

2.94

1.06

311

4

1.36

2.64

3.70

Javorius Allen

110

3

0.74

2.26

196

2

0.86

1.14

3.41

Saquon Barkley

954

8

6.39

1.61

602

4

2.63

1.37

2.98

Aaron Jones

642

7

4.30

2.70

178

1

0.78

0.22

2.92

Kapri Bibbs

101

3

0.68

2.32

102

1

0.45

0.55

2.88

James Develin

6

3

0.04

2.96

41

0

0.18

-0.18

2.78

LeGarrette Blount

332

5

2.22

2.78

54

0

0.24

-0.24

2.54

Tevin Coleman

514

2

3.44

-1.44

271

5

1.19

3.81

2.37

Christian McCaffrey

863

5

5.78

-0.78

663

6

2.90

3.10

2.32

Leonard Fournette

314

4

2.10

1.90

134

1

0.59

0.41

2.31

Royce Freeman

397

5

2.66

2.34

28

0

0.12

-0.12

2.22

Ito Smith

221

4

1.48

2.52

133

0

0.58

-0.58

1.94

Phillip Lindsay

937

8

6.27

1.73

189

1

0.83

0.17

1.90

Doug Martin

445

2

2.98

-0.98

106

0

0.46

-0.46

-1.44

Marcus Murphy

205

0

1.37

-1.37

18

0

0.08

-0.08

-1.45

Jordan Wilkins

318

1

2.13

-1.13

74

0

0.32

-0.32

-1.45

Jacquizz Rodgers

85

0

0.57

-0.57

208

0

0.91

-0.91

-1.48

Gus Edwards

379

1

2.54

-1.54

7

0

0.03

-0.03

-1.57

Chris Ivory

298

1

1.99

-0.99

159

0

0.70

-0.70

-1.69

Bilal Powell

343

0

2.30

-2.30

110

1

0.48

0.52

-1.78

Dalvin Cook

312

0

2.09

-2.09

194

1

0.85

0.15

-1.94

Theo Riddick

74

0

0.50

-0.50

338

0

1.48

-1.48

-1.97

LeSean McCoy

478

2

3.20

-1.20

210

0

0.92

-0.92

-2.12

Alfred Blue

446

1

2.99

-1.99

107

0

0.47

-0.47

-2.45

Dion Lewis

464

1

3.11

-2.11

309

1

1.35

-0.35

-2.46

Lamar Miller

876

3

5.86

-2.86

144

1

0.63

0.37

-2.49

Jalen Richard

214

0

1.43

-1.43

478

0

2.09

-2.09

-3.52

Frank Gore

616

0

4.12

-4.12

100

1

0.44

0.56

-3.56

We've got a similar story with the running back touchdown regression chart this week. One player who's intriguing is Lamar Miller, who's now scored just three times via the rush despite his 876 yards on the ground. He doesn't have a ton of goal-line attempts (6), but that number should almost be double what it is given his yardage accumulation. The Texans have two strong matchups upcoming for him, so perhaps we see a little positive regression.

Wide Receiver Touchdown Regression

Player

Rec Yds

TD

Should Have

Difference

Antonio Brown

1028

12

6.16

5.84

Tyler Lockett

713

9

4.28

4.72

Davante Adams

1115

11

6.69

4.31

Tyreek Hill

1119

11

6.71

4.29

Mike Williams

471

7

2.82

4.18

Calvin Ridley

647

8

3.88

4.12

Jaron Brown

150

5

0.90

4.10

John Ross

189

5

1.13

3.87

Anthony Miller

399

6

2.39

3.61

Chris Conley

248

5

1.49

3.51

Aldrick Robinson

187

4

1.12

2.88

Kenny Stills

369

5

2.21

2.79

Cooper Kupp

566

6

3.39

2.61

David Moore

413

5

2.48

2.52

Curtis Samuel

284

4

1.70

2.30

Dante Pettis

314

4

1.88

2.12

Adam Thielen

1166

9

6.99

2.01

Marquise Goodwin

339

4

2.03

1.97

Larry Fitzgerald

508

5

3.05

1.95

Keelan Cole

391

1

2.34

-1.34

Quincy Enunwa

427

1

2.56

-1.56

Martavis Bryant

266

0

1.60

-1.60

D.J. Moore

609

2

3.65

-1.65

Mike Evans

1121

5

6.72

-1.72

Maurice Harris

291

0

1.75

-1.75

Danny Amendola

469

1

2.81

-1.81

Willie Snead

507

1

3.04

-2.04

Nelson Agholor

523

1

3.14

-2.14

Jarvis Landry

733

2

4.40

-2.40

JuJu Smith-Schuster

1104

4

6.62

-2.62

Brandin Cooks

1026

3

6.15

-3.15

Julio Jones

1323

3

7.93

-4.93

Brandin Cooks has found the end zone just three times on over 1,000 yards receiving. And you can't say it's just because he's a deep-ball player who's not utilized in the red zone. He has 13 red-zone targets this year, ranking 14th among wideouts, and his six targets from within the 10 have him tied in the top-15 as well. Hopefully he gets luckier for fantasy managers in the playoffs.