For the past two months, Hoffman has held a strong lead over rivals, but, as you can see in the chart above, that edge has diminished consistently in recent weeks. Now Jones, who plays abolitionist Thaddeus Stevens in Steven Spielberg's "Lincoln," is favored by 10 of our 28 Oscarologists.

The change comes as momentum has shifted for their respective films in the awards derby. "Lincoln" led with the most nominations at all three of last week's awards announcements: Critics' Choice, Golden Globes, and SAG Awards, including bids at all three for Jones.

Hoffman was also nominated for all three, but "The Master" didn't perform as well. It was snubbed in all other categories at the SAG Awards, and missed out on a Drama Picture nomination from the Globes, indicating soft support for the film overall.