Wednesday, April 07, 2010

The art of Oscar predictions is to both embrace the obvious and then to shoo it away. You can't let the obvious choices hoodwink you into believing that the same types of movies and same exact people that were once embraced will be reembraced each year. Because it doesn't work (exactly) like that.

Like anyone else I've made some terrible calls over the years but one thing I'm really proud of in my Oscar prediction track record is that I am not as beholden to statistics as some of my fellow pundits. That's how I've been able to call people correctly who the precursors didn't treat that well. Some of my proudest "they'll be nominated!" moments over the years: Ed Harris and Marcia Gay Harden for Pollock; Pedro Almodovar for Talk to Her; Laura Linney for The Savages and in some cases, noone else was saying so. It's also how I've avoided "obvious" traps way early in the punditry game like how so many people were predicting Daniel Day-Lewis for Nine or Cate Blanchett for Benjamin Button for so very long. Not me. Sometimes if the call seems too easy, it is.

Not that I haven't stumbled myself but I'm focusing on the positive here.

Norwegian Wood

The remainder of the first wave of 2010/11 Oscar season predictions will be finalized this weekend since only the big six categories remain. But everything else is now up including Score, Techs and Foreign. The latter is totally foolish guesswork since Cannes is still a month away and even then each country's submissions can go any which way. And finally there's also a page up for Animated Film. Open Mind: I don't think that Toy Story 3 is a sure thing for a win. Isn't Oscar going to get sick of handing trophies to Pixar films? Discuss.

I get the sense from various comments, e-mails and poll results that there's a whole subsection of reader who wish I'd swerve into the pixels a little more often. So I shall try this year. It's strange that I write about animation so rarely because I do like the medium quite a lot. In fact, until I was about 20 I wanted to be an animator.*

If enough people believe that Pixar has won too many Oscars, and if Toy Story 3 isn't a massive critical and commercial success, I could easily see Animated Feature going to How to Train Your Dragon next year.

As for the techs, the fanboy in me would love to see Daft Punk get a Best Original Score nomination for Tron Legacy. Is that too much of a long shot, Nat?

I made a list of 16 possible contenders, both realistic and early releases that are kind of unlikely.

Before that, Animated: Toy Story 3 is not a sure thing yet. But even if the reviews are bad for a Pixar film, it's a guarenteed nominee. How To Train Your Dragon is a likely nominee-Coraline got nom'd even with early release.

Ghost Writer:PROS: Sympathy for Polanski. Good reviews.CONS: Hatred for Polanski, early release, it's no Chinatown.

Harry Potter 7 Part 1:PROS: Series is due for recognition, only series of 6 to be consistent (well, the last 5 Saw films were consistently bad, does that count?)CONS: There's the 2nd half, too kiddy and fantasy according to AMPAS. Never gets Visual Effects nominations.

Okay, on Daniel Day-Lewis for NINE: I think he definitely would've been in had the film been the massive hit we all thought it would be. I think if it were as strong a contender later in the game, he would've been a sure thing.

Nathanial ( and other FE readers ) don't sleep on or underestimate Secretariat. It has an Oscar winning/nominated crew all around it. Add to that one of the great sports stories of all time and you have a winner.At the time Secretariat won the Triple Crown in 1973, there had been a 15 year snub since the last timea horse accomkplished that feat. Also that year Secretariat broke the speed records at The Kentucky Derby ( 1:59 ) and at The Belmont Stakes ( 2:24 ) in fact winning that race by an incredible 31 lengths. Both records that still stand today which is really incredible when you think about it. Almost 40 year records.Other than Diane Lane playing owner Penny Chenery, John Malkovich will get to play legendary trainer Lucien Laurin. Oscar winner Deam Semler ( Dances With Wolves ) is the cinematographer ( an A type film that will benefit from the natural visuals ) and Braveheart screenwriter Randall Wallace ( We Were Soldiers ) directing.As I mentioned, there's millions and millions horesracing fans and buffs and many people will see this movie and it will grab the attention of a a lot of people because it was such a great story.

As this specific moment, with How To Train Your Dragon having heart and great storytelling and the Toy Story 3 trailers full of gross-out gags and lame mugging (the use of the song "Loving You" when Ken and Barbie meet made me wince), it seems like Dreamworks and Pixar have traded roles.

But I'm sure TS3 has more than trailer editors think we're looking for, and Shrek Forever After will probably push Dragon from people's minds. Alas.

@Anon 4:36 - "Seabiscuit" was a great story, great (and best-selling) biography but the movie was still a huge disappointment. And, my SO and I went to see it at the theater at the Museum of the Horse in Saratoga Springs, NY, because we thought that would be really cool to see it in one of the horse racing capitals of the world. (I'm not a racing or horse person, but she used to be a horsewoman.) And, symbolic connections of place and all, the movie still sucked.

I don't think there are that many horse racing fans that they, by themselves, can make a film about Secretariat a hit (or an Oscar contender). And even amoung those fans - if the film doesn't hit the sweet spot, they won't be coming back for seconds.

That film would really need to knock it out of the park, quite literally, to be either a BO or awards contender.

Well Janice, I guess we will agree to disagree. I happened to really like the movie. I thought there were some fine performances in the film.I also in some way was responding to Nathanial's original post and his wait and see movie list as referring to Secretariat as a film about " Diane Lane buys a horsetrack ". That's not what the film is about. It's about a horse that accomplished a great feat, that has only been matched twice since in 37 years.And as for the film being a disappointment, well... it has a near 80% approval rating critically and it scored a Best Picture Oscar nomination. So....