2017 NFL Power Rankings, Presented By Knightfall: Week 14

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The Jaguars had a lower degree of difficulty Sunday as they hosted the Colts, but they thoroughly destroyed Indianapolis, winning 30-10 and out-gaining them by 2.3 yards per play.

Jacksonville is fourth in the league in point differential behind Philadelphia, the Rams, and New England, but they're number one in terms of opponent-adjusted Net Expected Points (NEP) differential. NEP measures each individual plays impact on the scoreline. You can read more about it in our glossary.

By now, you probably know Jacksonville’s story, in that they own a dominant pass defense and have an offense that has largely stayed out of the way. That remains the case, as the Jaguars own the top pass defense in both NEP per drop back and NEP allowed per played.

Offensively, things are more interesting, as they are tied for 11th in NEP per play, ranking sixth on the ground and 12th through the air. Rookie running back Leonard Fournette (822 yards, 4.0 yards per carry) is averaging -0.01 NEP per rush, which is actually above the league average of -0.02.

Still, their most productive running player has actually been quarterback Blake Bortles, who is sixth in the league in rushing NEP. He has carried the ball 44 times for 284 yards.

Through the air, Bortles is averaging 0.09 NEP per drop back, better than the league average of 0.07. Given his track record, it may still be hard to trust Bortles, but we are now 12 games into what has been a fine season. He still will not win games singlehandedly for the Jaguars, but he has played well enough to not lose many singlehandedly either, and given the team’s strengths elsewhere, this could be good enough.

Teams Ranked 32nd to 23rd

We’re 12 weeks into the season and Cleveland still does not have a win, so it may be time to start seriously asking whether not they will finish the season 0-16. The answer to that question is still the same as it has been all year: “probably not.”

Rank

Team

nERD

Rec

Proj

Playoffs

Off. NEP Rank

Def. NEP Rank

Change

32

Indianapolis Colts

-11.87

3-9

4.3-11.7

0.0%

24

32

0

31

San Francisco 49ers

-11.51

2-10

3.1-12.9

0.0%

29

30

0

30

Miami Dolphins

-8.47

5-7

6.4-9.6

1.9%

31

16

0

29

Cleveland Browns

-7.97

0-12

1.1-14.9

0.0%

27

25

0

28

New York Giants

-5.62

2-10

3.6-12.4

0.0%

26

18

-2

27

Buffalo Bills

-5.55

6-6

8.0-8.0

14.8%

30

15

-4

26

Oakland Raiders

-4.86

6-6

7.3-8.7

10.0%

13

31

2

25

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

-4.46

4-8

5.5-10.5

0.0%

19

27

0

24

Dallas Cowboys

-4.21

6-6

7.5-8.5

2.9%

12

29

+3

23

New York Jets

-3.92

5-7

6.1-9.9

0.5%

21

24

+1

Cleveland is not actually the bottom team in our rankings, something I looked into two weeks ago. We have the Browns pegged as about 8 points below average. For the sake of argument, let’s just say we’re wrong and presume they will be 14-point underdogs in each of their remaining four games.

In reality, the Browns will have better odds than that going forward, as they are currently 3-point underdogs at home on Sunday against Green Bay. In terms of their future opponents, accounting for a 3-point home field advantage, nERD would expect them to be about 10-point underdogs at home against Baltimore, 7-point underdogs in Chicago and 18.5-point underdogs in Pittsburgh in Week 17 -- assuming the Steelers have something to play for.

If we take these numbers at face value, they imply that the Browns only have about a 31.3% chance of going 0-16.

Teams Ranked 22nd to 13th

Tennessee moved up four spots in the rankings this week, the most of any team, and is also the reason our top team has less than a 3% chance of winning the Super Bowl.

Rank

Team

nERD

Rec

Proj

Playoffs

Off. NEP Rank

Def. NEP Rank

Change

22

Arizona Cardinals

-3.89

5-7

6.6-9.4

0.0%

25

13

-2

21

Denver Broncos

-3.75

3-9

5.0-11.0

0.0%

32

3

-3

20

Cincinnati Bengals

-3.67

6-6

7.6-8.4

10.2%

22

22

+1

19

Chicago Bears

-3.59

3-9

4.7-11.3

0.0%

28

9

0

18

Tennessee Titans

-2.86

8-4

9.9-6.1

91.8%

16

23

+4

17

Detroit Lions

-1.48

6-6

8.1-7.9

6.7%

20

19

0

16

Kansas City Chiefs

-0.39

6-6

8.3-7.7

46.6%

8

28

-1

15

Houston Texans

0.41

4-8

6.3-9.7

0.2%

15

17

-1

14

Green Bay Packers

0.68

6-6

7.9-8.1

8.4%

10

21

+2

13

Atlanta Falcons

1.3

7-5

8.7-7.3

27.5%

9

20

0

If the season ended today, the Titans would be the champions of the AFC South, as while they are 8-4 like the Jaguars, they won the first matchup between the two teams. They will also host the rematch the final week of the season.

Our model sees Jacksonville as the better team by a long shot (14.18 points to be exact), but because of the advantageous situation they are in, Tennessee is actually the slight favorite to win the division. The Titans have a 51.2% chance of winning the South, compared to 48.8% odds for the Jaguars. The prospects of opening the playoffs with two road games explain why Jacksonville's Super Bowl odds are just 2.9%.

Still, we see the Titans as a below average team, whose impressive looking record is propped up by close wins. Tennessee is 5-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less and has actually been outscored by 16 points this season. This is despite the fact they have played the second-easiest schedule in the league, according to Pro-Football-Reference.

Teams Ranked 12th to 1st

Philadelphia’s loss not only put a new team atop the rankings but also put a new team on top of the Super Bowl odds chart. And yes, that team is the Patriots.

Rank

Team

nERD

Rec

Proj

Playoffs

Off. NEP Rank

Def. NEP Rank

Change

12

Washington Redskins

1.47

5-7

7.2-8.8

0.5%

17

12

-1

11

Seattle Seahawks

3.17

8-4

10.6-5.4

88.1%

14

10

+1

10

Carolina Panthers

3.33

8-4

10.2-5.8

70.2%

18

5

-1

9

Baltimore Ravens

4.67

7-5

9.5-6.5

76.7%

23

2

1

8

New England Patriots

6.39

10-2

13.0-3.0

100.0%

1

26

0

7

Los Angeles Chargers

6.91

6-6

8.7-7.3

50.7%

6

11

0

6

Pittsburgh Steelers

7.71

10-2

11.5-4.5

99.6%

5

8

-1

5

Los Angeles Rams

7.9

9-3

11.4-4.6

97.4%

7

6

+1

4

Minnesota Vikings

8.43

10-2

12.8-3.2

99.9%

4

7

0

3

New Orleans Saints

10

9-3

11.9-4.1

98.5%

2

14

0

2

Philadelphia Eagles

10.99

10-2

12.8-3.2

100.0%

3

4

-1

1

Jacksonville Jaguars

11.32

8-4

10.2-5.8

96.9%

11

1

+1

New England is not the best team in our rankings, as a weak defense has dragged them down to the eight-spot. They top the championship probability list anyway for a number of factors, including the relative weakness of the AFC.

15 teams in the NFL have a positive nERD rating but only six of them are in the AFC. One of these squads (Houston) has less than a 1% chance of making the playoffs, while another (Los Angeles) has about a 50-50 chance of doing so.

New England is also very likely to get a bye, as they have a two-game lead over the three-seed Titans. There are good teams in the conference, like the Steelers and Jaguars, but there is also the chance the Patriots host a thoroughly mediocre team like Tennessee or Buffalo in its first playoff game.

A comparable scenario just does not exist in the NFC.

The combination of these things and others means we give the Patriots a 24.2% chance of repeating as champions.