Brazilians Vote Down Kings and Keep Presidents

By JAMES BROOKE,

Published: April 22, 1993

RIO DE JANEIRO, April 21—
Rejecting appeals to restore the country's 19th-century monarchy, Brazilians voted today to retain the system they borrowed from the United States 104 years ago -- a presidential republic.

But in a reflection of the enduring fascination with the Bragancas, Brazil's royal family, about 12 percent of voters, or eight million people, apparently obeyed the monarchist command to "vote for the King."

Finals results are expected Sunday. Surveys of voters leaving the polls today indicated that Brazilians also rejected another option, a parliamentary system. In a plebiscite marked by apathy and abstention, many voters told interviewers that they voted only because they were required to by law.

Paradoxically, instead of strengthening Brazil's political system, the vote today is expected to unleash a new period of political instability for Latin America's largest nation. Brazil's $450 billion economy -- roughly the size of China's and Russia's -- appears destined to face two more years of low growth and high inflation.

"The vote marks the start of a very bitter presidential campaign," said Bolivar Lamounier, a Sao Paulo political scientist. "We could have a lame-duck President for the next 20 months."

Political support is expected to rapidly peel away from Itamar Franco, who assumed presidential powers after Fernando Collor de Mello was impeached in September. Already, half a dozen major political candidates are campaigning, each one trying to emerge as leader of the opposition.

In the first seven months of his presidency, Mr. Franco has experimented with three Economy Ministers. But none have been able to reduce inflation below its current rate of 25 percent a month. Today, Brazil's highest denomination bank note, the 500,000 cruzeiro bill, is worth $16.

Mr. Franco's approval ratings, as measured by the DataFolha polling organization, have dropped from 36 percent to 18 percent since February.

Continued erosion of political and public support will strip Brazil's already weak executive of the power to combat inflation. For relief, Brazilians will have to wait until a new President is elected in November 1994 and is inaugurated on Jan. 1, 1995.

With recent headlines proclaiming "The Beginning of the End," and "Itomar Against Them All," the President has counterattacked, warning politicians about the danger of "a conflagration of ambition."

"Be careful with the matches, be careful with the gasoline tank," he warned two weeks ago.

Last Friday, he announced to a military audience, "The President of the republic will never be a hostage to the results of the plebiscite, of succession politics."

Despite an hour of daily prime-time television advertising, the plebiscite failed to create public interest. Last Friday, fewer than 100 people turned out for a march held by parliamentary advocates in Sao Paulo, South America's largest city. Half the Voters Stayed Home

Polls indicated that about half of the electorate of 90 million did not understand what the referendum was about. Today, voter surveys indicated that about half the electorate stayed home or did not cast valid ballots.

"People don't even have the money to buy a newspaper," said Roberto Bernardo, a 27-year-old salesman as he waited in line to vote in Rio. "Why bother with a plebiscite? Now the politicians have stopped working to dedicate themselves to the presidential succession."

The front-runners appear to be Paulo Salim Maluf, the conservative Mayor of Sao Paulo, and Luis Inacio (Lula) da Silva, a Socialist who is president of the Workers Party.

Whoever wins will face the challenge of forging a working majority in Congress from 19 political parties now represented.

The political track record is not encouraging. Since the army overthrew Brazil's last reigning Braganca in a coup in 1889, only one elected President, Juscelino Kubitschek, has finished his term in office.