Good poll news not so good

Monday

Dec 3, 2012 at 3:15 AM

In the category of breaking news, the editorial board here at Foster’s Daily Democrat received some polling results recently which purported to tout the political strength of Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., as she gears up for a re-election bid in 2014. After close examination, however, we are not so sure the Shaheen campaign should be very pleased with the results.

The polling results came from the Progressive Change Campaign Committee (PCCC) under the headline: “BREAKING: New poll has Shaheen ahead in 2014 Race.”

In summary, PCCC wrote: “ ... Granite State voters widely approve of and are ready to stand behind Sen. Shaheen in her 2014 reelection fight — especially if she fights hard for the progressive, balanced approach to deficit reduction they voted for in 2012.”

And, on the surface some of the numbers do look good for Shaheen: a 51 percent approval rating for how she handles the job as a senator and a 53 to 42 percent lead if she is challenged by former U.S. Sen. John Sununu.

But, how good is a 51 percent support? One of Shaheen’s most highly respected predecessors, Judd Gregg, had an approval rating of 24 percent (the difference between approval and disapproval), while Shaheen’s rating is only 15 percent. John Sununu’s was 12 percent before he was defeated by Shaheen in 2008. This also leads us to wonder how firm that slim majority of support really is, especially given there has been no campaign yet to unseat her — nevermind a candidate yet chosen.

Then there is her lead over Sununu. Again, Sununu hasn’t even been campaigning for the seat, let alone pointing out any of Shaheen’s weaknesses or his own strengths (should he decide to run).

The poll also showed other potential problems for the incumbent in areas seen favorable to Democrats.

For example: “If Senator Shaheen supported any cuts to Medicare and Medicaid benefits, would that make you more or less likely to vote for her, or would it make no difference to you?

These results can be read in two ways. That 46 percent of “less likely” seems like a lot of voters to tee off by supporting cuts, such as those urged by Republicans. On the other hand, the remaining percentages, when totaled, indicate most voters don’t care much and would let other issues decide for whom they cast ballots.

Another result touted by PCCC also received a similarly ambiguous response:

If Senator Shaheen led the national fight to raise taxes on the rich, would that make you more or less likely to vote for her, or would it make no difference to you?

Again, these results show that a majority of respondents don’t know or pretty much don’t care about these potential campaign issues.

Perhaps more telling, however, than these poll results are the results from Nov. 6. New Hampshire voters were clearly angered by the overreach of the Republican-led state legislature. In addition, they were willing to give President Obama another chance to fix the ailing economy.

As a result, the next two years of the Democratic-laden government here in New Hampshire and the president’s performance on the economic front could have a more decisive bearing on Shaheen’s re-election bid than anything her campaign minions conjure up.