Networks to burst bubbles after dreadful season

Published 4:00 am, Monday, April 20, 2009

In television, you don't want to be "on the bubble." What if you fall off the wrong side? What if it pops? What if it somehow involves NBC?

Scary.

Being on the bubble means not only that your show is a candidate to be canceled, but it could also fall into fortune and get renewed at the last second.

Right now, a ton of shows are on the bubble. Next month the bubble bursts for many of them, as the networks participate in the annual "up-fronts," revealing what will stay and go next fall.

Slam-dunk renewals among the freshman class this year will be rare: "The Mentalist" on CBS, and both "Fringe" and "Lie to Me" on Fox stood out in a bleak field. And that's it.

Easy decisions on cancellations were more common: Fox killed the sitcom "Do Not Disturb" almost immediately (and later announced it was finished with "Prison Break" and "King of the Hill" as well). NBC didn't pretend that "Crusoe" would be anything more than a one-season disaster ("Harper's Island" on CBS was also a limited series). CBS canceled "The Ex List." ABC canceled "Eli Stone," "Dirty Sexy Money," "Pushing Daisies" and "Life on Mars." USA canceled "The Starter Wife," FX canceled "Testees" and TNT canceled "Trust Me."

But mostly networks keep these decisions guarded heading into May, making the next few weeks a combination of confusion and radio silence.

After a season of new lows in audience share, few breakout hits and rampant ratings disappointment, series that are on the bubble should be at an all-time high. Here's an alphabetical list (scripted shows only), but please note before panicking: If a series doesn't appear here, most likely it was already renewed or was never in danger of being canceled in the first place. Still, there's a "notable renewals" section at the bottom.

"Better Off Ted," ABC. Despite being the funniest new sitcom this season, the ratings are dreadful and ABC is known for a quick trigger.

"Brotherhood," Showtime: Odds are this one is a goner, despite compelling performances and high-quality writing. It just never gained traction with viewers over two seasons.

"Castle," ABC. Look for a renewal here.

"Chuck," NBC. It had two seasons to become a hit and didn't. Odds are that NBC will give up on it. The variable in any discussion about NBC is this: The network doesn't have a lot going for it. When you're in fourth place (in what is essentially a four-network race), you either feel grateful for mediocre ratings or you toss everything on the fire.

"Cupid," ABC. The second time was not the charm for this romantic comedy. A long shot to survive.

"Dollhouse," Fox. Conventional wisdom says no way; the ratings are terrible and creator Joss Whedon didn't have the best relationship with Fox. But if there's a miracle in this pile of shows, it could happen right here.

"Eleventh Hour," CBS: The network is contemplating canceling "Cold Case" and "Without a Trace." If that happens, look for "Eleventh Hour," which performed admirably, to survive. If not, bubble time - but still a good bet for renewal.

"Everybody Hates Chris," CW. The best show you never watched is likely to bow out.

"Flight of the Conchords," HBO. It's still a great series, but fans complained that the songs weren't as good in Season 2, and even the Conchords themselves lamented how difficult a third season would be. All parties might opt to end the run.

"The Game," CW. Very unlikely.

"Gary Unmarried," CBS. A couple of seasons ago, 10 million viewers was about the cutoff line for renewal, generally speaking. As network ratings slip, there's comfort in 8.5 million or better, but "Gary" is still a couple of million shy of that. Look for the divorce.

"In the Motherhood," ABC. The network likes pointed comedies, but its core audience doesn't. Count this one out.

"Kath & Kim," NBC. All but officially dead.

"Kings," NBC. The network moved it to Saturdays. The kiss of death. See: "Kath & Kim."

"Knight Rider," NBC. See: "Kings."

"Life," NBC. See "Knight Rider."

"Lipstick Jungle," NBC. See: "Life."

"My Own Worst Enemy," NBC. See: "Lipstick Jungle." (And no doubt you see the trend with NBC shows this season? Woeful and embarrassing.)

"Numb3rs," CBS. The network would probably bring this back, but if any of the pilots being developed now show promise, this veteran is vulnerable.

"Parks & Recreation," NBC. The numbers won't validate it, but look for NBC to give it a full-season second try.

"Private Practice," ABC. Right on top of the bubble - but it will probably fall to safety.

"Privileged," CW. This is a network that likes buzz on its unwatched shows. There's none here.

"Reaper," CW. It was one of the network's best pilots and ambitious series, but it suffered a second-season collapse in quality and lost faith at the network. Doubtful to return.

"Rules of Engagement," CBS. Look for this one to come back. It just keeps surprising.

"Samantha Who?," ABC. Another classic bubble show that the network has dithered with. Look for the network to go in another direction.

"Scrubs," ABC. Revived for one season to get syndication numbers, there's almost no chance of this returning.

"Sit Down, Shut Up," Fox. Too early to tell; it's the last official network premiere in the season. Despite making 13 episodes, Fox will air only five and then decide its fate.

"Southland," NBC. Going out on a limb here, this might be the most unforeseen success story late in the season - and it will probably shock people with a renewal notice.

"Surviving Suburbia," ABC. Painfully unfunny, but ABC's core audience appears to like it. Because there is no such thing as a TV god, it will probably get renewed.

"Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles," Fox. The machines stop. This one looks to be done.

"Ugly Betty," ABC. One of the bigger names that will probably not get renewed.

"The Unusuals," ABC. The network is trying to force-feed this to viewers. They're not biting. Forget it.

"Worst Week," CBS. Not officially dead, but dead.

Notable renewals include: "The Big Bang Theory" on CBS, "Heroes" on NBC, "Friday Night Lights" - for two seasons - on NBC, "The Tudors" - for a fourth and final season - on Showtime, "The United States of Tara" on Showtime, "The Life & Times of Tim" and "Eastbound & Down" on HBO, and "Sons of Anarchy" on FX.

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