Palestinian Public Opinion Poll No (38)

Palestinian Public Opinion Poll No (38)

In the fourth quarter of 2010:

While demand for holding local elections increases, and while pessimism regarding the chances for reconciliation increases, and while criticism of the PA for suppression of freedoms increases, credibility of the authorities in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip diminishes, support for a permanent settlement along the lines of the Clinton Parameters and the Geneva Initiative decreases, and two thirds oppose return to negotiations with Israel before it freezes settlement construction despite the fact that a majority believes Israel would be the first to benefit from no negotiations

16-18 December 2010

These are the results of the latest poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip between 16-18 December 2010. Before the conduct of the poll, authorities in the West Bank arrested a Hamas cell and accused it of plotting to assassinate the governor of Nablus and Hamas sentenced three Fateh members to death after convicting them of killing a Gazan mosque preacher. A meeting in Damascus between Fateh and Hamas representatives failed to reach an agreement on reconciliation. On the peace process front, the US announced that it has ceased to press Israel on the need to freeze settlement construction and urged Palestinians and Israelis to enter into indirect negotiations it promised to sponsor. This poll covers issues related to domestic conditions: the performance of the governments of Salam Fayyad and Ismail Haniyeh, the internal balance of power between Fateh and Hamas, the future of reconciliation and reunification, and the views of the public on the most vital Palestinian goals and the most serious problems confronting Palestinians today. The poll also covers issues related to the peace process and public attitude toward a permanent settlement as well as Palestinian perception of the views of the Israeli Jewish majority of various calls and proposed legislation that seeks to discriminate against Arabs. Total size of the sample is 1270 adults interviewed face to face in 127 randomly selected locations. Margin of error is 3%. For further details, contact PSR director, Dr. Khalil Shikaki, or Walid Ladadwehat tel 02-296 4933 or email pcpsr@pcpsr.org.

Main Findings:

Findings of the fourth quarter of 2010 indicate an increase in the level of pessimism regarding the chances for reconciliation and restoration of unity between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. They also indicate an overwhelming rejection of alternative forms of relations between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip such as a confederation or separate elections in each region. Findings also show widespread distrust in the authorities in both the West Bank and the Gaza Strip regarding Fateh-Hamas relationship. For example, only a quarter or less believe as true the news about a Hamas plot to assassinate the governor of Nablus or that the three Fateh members sentenced to death in Gaza have received a fair trial. Findings also point out to a significant and continued deterioration in public perception of the level of freedoms enjoyed by citizens in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip since the split between these two areas in June 2007. For example, belief that citizens can criticize the authorities in the West Bank without fear retreated from 56% in September 2007 to 27% in this poll. Similarly a retreat occurred in the belief that citizens can criticize the authorities in the Gaza Strip without fear from 52% to 19% during the same period. It is worth noting that 70% of the public in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip believe that the government of Salam Fayyad should conduct local elections now that the Palestinian Supreme Court of Justice has annulled a previous decision by the government to cancel local elections that were scheduled to take place last July.

Finally, findings show that the balance of power between Fateh and Hamas has remained almost unchanged compared to the situation during the third quarter of the year. The same is true regarding the popularity of president Mahmud Abbas and Ismail Haniyeh. Moreover, findings regarding the balance of power in the fourth quarter of this year are very similar to those of the final quarter of 2009 which means that the internal and external developments throughout 2010 has left no impact on this critical issue of internal balance between Fateh and Hamas and Abbas andHaniyeh.

Findings show that two thirds of the public oppose return to US-sponsored indirect negotiations with Israel. But they also show that almost 60% believe that Israel would be the one to benefit from such a step while only 13% believe that Palestinians would benefit from not returning to negotiations. Findings also show that the public is still uncertain about the best alternative to negotiations: two groups support almost equally two options, going to the US Security Council and waging violent confrontations. A third group prefers a non violent resistance and a fourth prefers to dissolve the PA.

(1) Domestic Conditions

· 17% describe conditions in the Gaza Strip as good or very good and 35% describe conditions in the West Bank as good or very good

· 61% believe corruption exists in the institutions of the dismissed government in the Gaza Strip and 71% believe corruption exists in PA institutions in the West Bank

· 60% believe that freedom of press exists, or exists to some extent, in the West Bank while 42% believe it exists, or exists to some extent, in the Gaza Strip

· 27% believe that people can criticize the authorities in the West Bank without fear while 19% believe that people can criticize the authorities in the Gaza Strip without fear

· Perception of personal safety and security stands at 61% among residents of the West Bank and 58% among residents of the Gaza Strip

· Positive evaluation of the performance of the government of Ismail Haniyeh stands at 36% and Fayyad’s government at 43%, and 23% believe that Haniyeh’s government is the legitimate one while 29% believe that Fayyad’s government is the legitimate one

· Satisfaction with the performance of president Mahmud Abbas stands at 50% and dissatisfaction at 45%

· If new presidential elections were to take place today, Abbas would receive 56% and Haniyeh 38%, and if the candidates wereMarwan Barghouti and Haniyeh, the former would receive 65% and the latter 31%

· If new parliamentary elections were to take place today, Hamas would receive 25% of the vote, Fateh 44%, all other lists combined 11%, and 20% remain undecided

· Pessimism about the chances for reconciliation increases with 39% believing that current separation is permanent

· If Hamas wins the next elections, chances for reconciliation and chances for removing the current siege would decrease while such chances would increase if Fateh wins the next elections

· 65% reject alternative forms of association between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, such as a confederation, and 32% support them; moreover, 76% reject and 22% accept holding separate elections in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip

· Less than one quarter believes that Hamas was indeed planning to assassinate the governor of Nablus and only 22% believe the three Fateh members sentenced to death in the Gaza Strip have received a fair trial

· 48% believe that the most vital Palestinian goal should be to end occupation and build a state and 21% believe it should be to build a pious or moral individual and a religious society, 20% believe it should be the right of return and 11% believe it should be democracy

· 70% believe that that the government of Salam Fayyad should hold local elections and 24% believe it should not

17% describe conditions in the Gaza Strip as good or very good and 62% describe them as bad or very bad. In our last poll, three months ago, in September-October, only 11% describe conditions in the Gaza Strip as good or very good and 70% said it was bad or very bad. By contrast, 35% describe conditions in the West Bank as good or very good and only 31% describe them as bad or very bad. Three months ago, these percentages stood at 33% and 34% respectively. The evaluation of the residents of the West Bank to conditions in Gaza is not different from the evaluation of the residents of the Gaza Strip. But there is a difference between the evaluation of West Bank residents compared to that of the Gazans regarding West Bank conditions: 43% of the Gazans believe these conditions to be good or very good but 31% of West Bankers believe them to be good or very good.

71% say there is corruption in the PA institutions in the West Bank while only 61% say there is corruption in the institutions of the dismissed government in the Gaza Strip. These percentages are similar to those obtained three months ago. Among residents of the West Bank, 72%, compared to 69% among Gazans, believe there is corruption in the PA in the West Bank. By contrast, a higher percentage of Gazans believe there is corruption in the public institutions of the dismissed government in the Gaza Strip reaching 66% compared to 57% among residents of the West Bank.

60% say there is, or there is to some extent, press freedom in the West Bank and 34% say there is no such freedom in the West Bank. By contrast, 42% say there is, or there is to some extent, press freedom in the Gaza Strip while 47% say there is no such freedom in the Gaza Strip. These results are similar to those obtained three months ago. Yet, only 27% say people in the West Bank can criticize the authority in the West Bank without fear. By contrast, only 19% say people in the Gaza Strip can criticize the authorities in Gaza without fear. Since the split between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, in June 2007, these percentages have witnessed gradual and significant decrease. As the table below shows, belief that people can criticize the authorities in the West Bank without fear stood at 56% while 52% believed that people can criticize the authorities without fear in the Gaza Strip. These percentages dropped in August 2008 to 47% for criticizing the authorities in the West Bank and 42% for criticizing the authorities in the Gaza Strip. A further drop occurred last September to 30% and 24% respectively.

Table (1): Gradual decrease in belief about the ability to criticize authorities in the West Bank or Gaza Strip since the spilt between the two areas

Date

Ability to criticize authorities in the West Bank

Ability to criticize authorities in the Gaza Strip

December 2010

27%

19%

September 2010

30%

24%

March 2009

37%

29%

August 2008

47%

42%

September 2007

56%

52%

Perception of safety and security stands at 61% in the West Bank and 58% in the Gaza Strip. These results are similar to those obtained three months ago.

Positive evaluation of the performance of the governments of Ismail Haniyeh and Salam Fayyad remains unchanged as it was three months ago standing at 36% for the Haniyeh’s government and 43% for the Fayyad government. But findings show an increase in the percentage of Gazanswho say that political, security, and economic conditions force them to seek immigration to other countries from 37% three months ago to 45% in this poll. In the West Bank, the percentage of those wishing to immigrate remains unchanged at 24%.

Percentage of satisfaction with the performance of President Abbas did not change during the past three months standing today at 50% while 45% say they are not satisfied. Satisfaction with the performance of the president stands at 47% in the Gaza Strip and 52% in the West Bank.

23% say the government of Haniyeh is the legitimate Palestinian government and 29% say the Fayyad government is the legitimate one. 34% say both governments are illegitimate. These results indicate a slight decrease in the percentage of those who view the Haniyeh government as legitimate. The percentage of those who believe Haniyeh’s government is the legitimate one stands at 26% in the Gaza Strip compared to 21% in the West Bank. The percentage of those who believe Fayyad’s government is the legitimate one stands at 31% in the Gaza Strip compared to 28% in the West Bank.

If new presidential elections are held today, and only two were nominated, Abbas would receive the vote of 56% and Haniyeh 38% of the vote of those participating. The rate of participation in such election would reach 59%. Three months ago, Abbas received 57% and Haniyeh 36%. In the Gaza Strip, Abbas receives 53% and Haniyeh 43% and in the West Bank Abbas receives 59% and Haniyeh 34%. If the presidential elections were between Marwan Barghouti and Ismail Haniyeh, the former would receive 65% and the latter would receive 31% of the participants’ votes. The rate of participation in this case would reach 69%. In the Gaza Strip, Barghouti receives 61% and Haniyeh 37% and in the West Bank Barghoutireceives 68% and Haniyeh 27%. These results are similar to those obtained three months ago. Most popular figures selected by the public as possible vice presidents from a list of five provided to respondents are Marwan Barghouti (selected by 27% of the public), Ismail Haniyeh (18%),Salam Fayyad (16%) Mustafa Barghouti (11%), and Saeb Erekat (5%).

If new legislative elections are held today with the participation of all factions, 69% say they would participate in such elections. Of those who would participate, 25% say they would vote for Hamas and 44% say they would vote for Fateh, 11% would vote for all other third parties combined, and 20% are undecided. These results are similar to those obtained three months ago. Vote for Hamas in the Gaza Strip is 26% and in the West Bank 24%. Vote for Fateh in the Gaza Strip is 48% and in the West Bank 42%.

In light of the failure of the latest Damascus meeting between Fateh and Hamas, the public remains pessimistic about the future of reconciliation and the restoration of unity between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip: belief that the split is permanent increases from 30% three months ago to 39% in this poll. Percentage of those who believe that unity will be restored soon drops from 14% to 8% during the same period. 49%, compared to 51% three months ago, say unity will return but only after a long time. Findings show that responsibility for the continued split between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip is placed on Hamas by 15% of the respondents and on Fateh by 13% and on both together by 62%. But when asked about the future of the unity of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip if Hamas wins new elections, 55% say such a win would consolidate the split. But if Fateh wins, only 31% say its win would consolidate the split. Only 13% say a Hamas electoral victory would consolidate unity while 30% say a Fateh electoral victory would consolidate unity. Moreover, findings show that 86% believes that if Hamas wins the next presidential and legislative elections such victory would lead to the consolidation of the siege and boycott on the Palestinian government or would keep things as they are today. But if Fateh wins the next elections, only 41% believe this would lead to the tightening of the siege and blockade or would keep conditions as they are today. 55% believe that a Fateh victory would lead to the lifting of the siege and boycott but only 10% believe a Hamas victory would lead to the lifting of the siege and boycott.

65% reject and 32% accept an alternative relationship between the West Bank and the Gaza Strip -- other than a full restoration of unity -- such as a confederation even if this alternative is temporary. In the confederate system that was rejected by two thirds, the government of Haniyeh would continue to administer the affairs of the Gaza Strip and the government of Fayyad would continue to administer the affairs of the West Bank, but President Abbas would preside over the two regions. Support for this alternative reaches 26% in the Gaza Strip and 36% in the West Bank. Similarly, only 22% support and 76% oppose the holding of separate elections, one in the West Bank administered by the Fayyad government and one in the Gaza Strip administered by the Haniyeh government, even if this leads to the election of one legislative council and one president for the two regions. Support for the separate elections reaches 19% in the Gaza Strip and 24% in the West Bank.

Less than one quarter (24%) believes that Hamas was indeed plotting to assassinate the governor of Nablus and 41% do not believe that while 35% say they do not know or are not certain. Belief that Hamas was indeed plotting to assassinate the governor reaches 30% in the Gaza Strip compared to 21% in the West Bank. Similarly, only 22% believe that the three Fateh members sentenced to death by a court in the Gaza Strip --after being convicted of killing a Gaza Mosque preacher-- have received a fair trial. 46% believe that they did not receive a fair trial and 32% are not sure or do not know. Belief that the trial was fair reaches 28% in the Gaza Strip compared to 19% in the West Bank.

The largest percentage (48%) believes that the first most vital Palestinian goal should be to end Israeli occupation in the areas occupied in 1967 and build a Palestinian state in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip with East Jerusalem as its capital. By contrast, only 21% believe the first most vital goal should be to build a pious or moral individual and a religious society, one that applies all Islamic teachings, and only 20% believe that the first and most vital goal should be to obtain the right of return to refuges to their 1948 towns and villages, and only 11% believe that the first most vital goal should be to establish a democratic political system that respects freedoms and rights of Palestinians. The largest percentage (39%) believes that the second most vital Palestinian goal should be to obtain the right of return to refuges to their 1948 towns and villages. By contrast, only 24% believe that the second most vital goal should be to end Israeli occupation in the areas occupied in 1967 and build a Palestinian state in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip with East Jerusalem as its capital, 22% believe the second most vital goal should be to build a pious or moral individual and a religious society, one that applies all Islamic teachings, and 16% believe that the second and most vital goal should be to establish a democratic political system that respects freedoms and rights of Palestinians.

The most serious problem confronting Palestinian society today is the spread of poverty and unemployment in the eyes of 28% of the public while 26% believe the most serious problem is the absence of national unity due to the split, 24% believe the most serious problem is the continuation of occupation and settlement activities, 10% believe it to be the siege and the closure of the Gaza border crossings, and 10% believe it to be the corruption in some public institutions.

Findings show that 70% of the Palestinian public believe that now in the aftermath of the decision by the Supreme Court of Justice to annul the decision of the government of Salam Fayyad to cancel local elections, the government should hold local elections. 24% believe that the government should not hold local elections. Demand for local elections is higher in the West Bank (79%) than in the Gaza Strip (57%). It is worth noting that last June a majority of 56% of West Bank residents expressed its wish to participate in the local elections scheduled for July and that 51% of the Palestinians in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip believed at that time that these elections would be fair while 37% believed they would not be fair. Last March, support for holding local elections stood at 54% (60% in the West Bank and 46% in the Gaza Strip).

(2) Peace Process

54% support and 42% oppose the Arab Peace Initiative

40% support and 58% oppose a permanent settlement based on the Clinton Parameters and the Geneva Initiative; highest level of support (58%) goes to the item on ending the conflict and lowest (24%) to the item on state demilitarization, a state without an army.

49% support and 49% oppose recognition of Israel as the state for the Jewish people in return for a recognition of Palestine as the state for the Palestinian people after all issues of the conflict are resolved and a Palestinian state is established

75% are worried and 25% are not worried that they or members of their families will be hurt at the hands of Israelis in their daily life or that their land will be confiscated or homes demolished

71% believe that the chances for establishing a Palestinian state in the next five years are slim or non existent and 27% believe the chances are medium or high

67% oppose and 30% support return to negotiations without a settlement freeze but 59% believe that Israel would benefit more from such a step

In the absence of negotiations, 31% prefer to go the US Security Council, 29% prefer return to armed confrontations, 16% prefer non violent confrontations, and 16% prefer to dissolve the PA

Findings show a majority support (54%) for the Arab Peace Initiative while 42% oppose it. But a majority of 58% opposes, and 40% support, a package of a permanent status agreement based on the Clinton Parameters and the Geneva Initiative. Support for this package stood at 38% in August 2009 and 49% in June 2010. The Clinton parameters for a Palestinian-Israeli permanent settlement were presented by President Clinton at a meeting with Israeli and Palestinian officials almost ten years ago, on December 23, 2000, following the collapse of the July 2000 Camp David summit. The Geneva Initiative, along similar lines, was made public around the end of 2003. These parameters address the most fundamental issues which underlie the Palestinian-Israeli conflict: (1) final borders and territorial exchange; (2) refugees; (3) Jerusalem; (4) a demilitarized Palestinian state; (5) security arrangements; and (6) end of conflict. We have been addressing these issues periodically since December 2003, and in the current poll we revisited these crucial issues following the diplomatic activity of the US with regard to the conflict and the US efforts to revive indirect negotiations.

Findings, as the summary table below shows, indicate that the public rejects all the items in the package with the exception of the one dealing with the end of conflict. The following is a summary of the items and the attitudes to each:

(1) Final Borders and Territorial Exchange: 49% support or strongly support and 50% oppose or strongly oppose an Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank and the Gaza Strip with the exception of some settlement areas in less than 3% of the West Bank that would be swapped with an equal amount of territory from Israel in accordance with a map that was presented to the Palestinian respondents. The map was identical to that presented to respondents in June 2010, when support for this compromise, with its map, stood at 60% and opposition at 38%.

(2) Refugees: 41% support and 57% oppose a refugee settlement in which both sides agree that the solution will be based on UN resolutions 194 and 242. The refugees would be given five choices for permanent residency. These are: the Palestinian state and the Israeli areas transferred to the Palestinian state in the territorial exchange mentioned above; no restrictions would be imposed on refugee return to these two areas. Residency in the other three areas (in host countries, third countries, and Israel) would be subject to the decision of these states. As a base for its decision Israel will consider the average number of refugees admitted to third countries like Australia, Canada, Europe, and others. All refugees would be entitled to compensation for their “refugeehood” and loss of property. In June 2010, 48% agreed with an identical compromise while 49% opposed it.

(3) Jerusalem: 36% support and 63% oppose a Jerusalem compromise in which East Jerusalem would become the capital of the Palestinian state with Arab neighborhoods coming under Palestinian sovereignty and Jewish neighborhoods coming under Israeli sovereignty. The Old City (including al Haram al Sharif) would come under Palestinian sovereignty with the exception of the Jewish Quarter and the Wailing Wall that would come under Israeli sovereignty. In June 2010, an identical compromise obtained 37% support and 62% opposition.

(4) Demilitarized Palestinian State: 24% support and 74% oppose the establishment of an independent Palestinian state that would have no army, but would have a strong security force and would have a multinational force deployed in it to ensure its security and safety. Israel and Palestine would be committed to end all forms of violence directed against each other. A similar compromise received in June 2010, 28% support, and opposition reached 70%. This item receives the lowest level of support by Palestinians. Unlike the refugees and Jerusalem components, this issue has not received due attention in public discourse, as it should, since it may become a major stumbling block in the efforts to reach a settlement.

(5) Security Arrangements: 38% support and 61% oppose a compromise whereby the Palestinian state would have sovereignty over its land, water, and airspace, but Israel would have the right to use the Palestinian airspace for training purposes, and would maintain two early warning stations in the West Bank for 15 years. A multinational force would remain in the Palestinian state and in its border crossings for an indefinite period of time. The task of the multinational force would be to monitor the implementation of the agreement, and to monitor territorial borders and coast of the Palestinian state including the presence at its international crossings. In June 2010, 41% of the Palestinians supported this parameter while 57% opposed it.

(6) End of Conflict: 58% support and 41% oppose a compromise on ending the conflict that would state that when the permanent status agreement is fully implemented, it will mean the end of the conflict and no further claims will be made by either side. The parties will recognize Palestine and Israel as the homelands of their respective peoples. The comparable figures in June 2010 were 63% support and 35% opposition.

Support for the package is higher in the Gaza Strip, standing at 49%, than in the West Bank, standing at 35%.

Findings show that the Palestinians are divided into two equal halves in support and opposition to the proposal that calls for mutual recognition of national identity with Palestinians recognizing Israel as the state for the Jewish people and Israelis recognizing Palestine as the state for the Palestinian people after all issues of the conflict have been settled and after a Palestinian state has been established. These figures are similar to those obtained in our last poll, three months ago.

Findings also show that an overwhelming majority (75%) is worried that they or members of their families would be hurt by Israelis in their daily life or that their land would be confiscated or homes demolished. Percentage of worry is slightly higher in the Gaza Strip (77%) compared to the West Bank (75%). Findings also show an overwhelming majority pessimistic about the chances for the establishment of a Palestinian state alongside Israel in the next five years: 71% believe chances to be slim or non existent and 27% believe them to be medium or high.

Findings also indicate that two thirds of the public oppose entering into US-sponsored indirect negotiations and 30% support it. Despite the clear opposition, a majority of 59% believes that Israel would be the one to benefit from such step in which Palestinians boycott negotiations. Only 13% believe Palestinians would be one to benefit and 16% believe the two sides will not benefit and 9% believe the two sides will benefit from such a step.

Finally, findings indicate that the public is still uncertain about the preferred alternative to negotiations: two alternatives are supported almost equally, going to the UN Security Council receives 31% support and waging armed confrontations against Israel receives 29% support. Two other alternatives receive lesser but equal support: waging a non violent confrontation and dissolving the PA, with each receiving 16%. While going to the UN Security Council receives similar support from residents of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip (32% and 30% respectively), regional differences exist regarding other alternatives. Support for waging armed confrontations stands at 39% among Gazans but only 24% among West Bankers. Support for non violent confrontations stands at 18% among West Bankers but only 13% among Gazans. Support for dissolving the PA receives similar support in the two areas: 15% in the Gaza Strip and 17% in the West Bank.

(3) Discrimination and racism in Israeli society:

71% believe a majority of Israeli Jews supports the call of Rabbis prohibiting renting apartments to Arabs in the city of Safed.

75% believe a majority of Israeli Jews supports the proposed Israeli law that would allow Israeli villages and towns to reject new non Jewish residents, such as Arabs

78% believe a majority of Israeli Jews supports the proposed Israeli law that would ban the use of head and face cover for women (burqa) in public places

71% believe a majority of Israeli Jews supports the proposed Israeli law that require non Jewish candidates for citizenship to pledge allegiance to Israel as Jewish and democratic

In this poll, we have asked Palestinians to assess the views of the majority of Israeli Jews toward a number of issues that indicate discrimination against non Jews such as the call for a ban on renting homes to Arabs in Safed and a number of proposed laws with a racist bent. Findings show that the overwhelming majority of Palestinians believe that a majority of Israeli Jews supports such steps. 71% believe a majority of Israeli Jews supports the call by a large number of Rabbis calling for a ban on renting homes and apartments to Arabs. Only 24% believe a majority of Israeli Jews does not support the call of the Rabbis.

We also found that 75% of the public believe that a majority of Israeli Jews support the proposed law that would allow Israeli villages and towns to reject admission on non Jewish residents while only 20% believe a majority of Israeli Jews reject the proposed law. Similarly, findings show that 78% believe that a majority of Israeli Jews supports the proposed law that would ban the wearing of the burqa by women, covering head and face, in public places in Israel while only 17% believe a majority of Israelis does not support the proposed law. We also found that 71% of the Palestinians believe that a majority of Israeli Jews supports the proposed Israeli law that would require non Jewish candidates for citizenship to pledge allegiance to Israel as Jewish and democratic while only 23% believe a majority of Israeli Jews does not support the proposed law.....Full Report