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HURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 61
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT AUG 19 2000
THE EYE OF ALBERTO REMAINS WELL-DEFINED...AND THE EYEWALL CONVECTION
HAS COOLED DURING THE NIGHT. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW
90 KT...77 KT...AND 77 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA. BASED ON
THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 85 KT. THE VERTICAL SHEAR
IS LIGHT AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN THAT WAY...SO SOME FURTHER
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE HURRICANE MOVES INTO THE COOLER
WATERS NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM. THAT IS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN 36-48
HR WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 335/4. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN EITHER THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN OR THE FORECAST GUIDANCE FROM THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL
ADVISORIES. THE BROAD DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.
AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD NUDGE THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE NEAR
ALBERTO EASTWARD...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A TURN TO THE NORTH. SINCE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ABOUT TO PASS NORTH OF
THE HURRICANE...THE MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE SLOW. BY THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE TROUGH SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR A
SLIGHTLY FASTER MOTION.
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/0900Z 35.6N 48.4W 85 KTS
12HR VT 19/1800Z 36.1N 48.5W 90 KTS
24HR VT 20/0600Z 37.3N 48.5W 90 KTS
36HR VT 20/1800Z 38.8N 48.2W 85 KTS
48HR VT 21/0600Z 40.5N 47.5W 75 KTS
72HR VT 22/0600Z 44.0N 46.0W 60 KTS
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