Consider the table above, which shows demographic results for the Democratic samples. Gender is relatively consistent, with the percentage of women varying between 51% and 62%, but age and education are comparatively more varied. Comparisons by age are the most difficult, given inconsistent age breaks, but the percentage of 18-29-year-olds in the Democratic samples varies from 2% to 20%. The percentage of 18-44-year-olds varies from 19% to 33%, under 50 varies from 29% to 50%. The portion with reporting a college degree varies from 35% to 56%...

Conclusion: So why did we go to all this trouble? As should be obvious now, the differences in the way pollsters measure "likely caucus goers" in Iowa are huge, not just in how narrowly they define the electorate but in the kinds of voters pollsters select as "likely caucus goers." But these issues are not unique to Iowa. In 2004, 21 states held Democratic primary elections with single digit turnouts (as a percentage of adults), and only New Hampshire had a turnout that topped 20%. Over the next year months, results from hundreds of polls will be released, polls that will set expectations and drive media coverage, and yet those of us that consume the data will know very little about how tightly the pollsters screen and the kinds of voters they select. If we want to be educated poll consumers, we are going to need to do something to change that. We need to push toward greater routine disclosure of methodological details.

Mostly meaningless that far out, perhaps. And natiional polls are still mostly meaningless. It's only now polls are becoming meaningful, because more people (at least in places like Iowa) are starting to pay attention and make their choices.

Polls months ago were almost all name recognition of the media's chosen one.

there are only 57 delegate votes at stake. Compare that to California's 440, New York's 280, Michigan's 156 or Texas' 228. In other words, it's small potatoes and complete media event driven bullshit. Let Obama or whoever have Iowa, even New Hampshire (30 delegate votes). Hillary will take the 4 states mentioned above (1,104 votes). It's over already.

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators

Important Notices: By participating on this discussion
board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules
page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the
opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent
the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.