S.A. teeters on brink of Stage 3 water rules

Aquifer plunges two feet in two days.

By Colin McDonaldcmcdonald@express-news.net

Updated 2:43 am, Wednesday, August 24, 2011

Photo: JOHN DAVENPORT, SAN ANTONIO EXPRESS-NEWS

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A dead, dried out fish lies in what was once a flowing Medina River north of Medina Lake. The Lake is down more than 30 feet and the Medina River, which flows into Mdina Lake, is completely dry in some areas.

A dead, dried out fish lies in what was once a flowing Medina River north of Medina Lake. The Lake is down more than 30 feet and the Medina River, which flows into Mdina Lake, is completely dry in some areas.

Photo: JOHN DAVENPORT, SAN ANTONIO EXPRESS-NEWS

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Drought conditions at the Medina River south of Pipe Creek, Texas August 17, 2011.

Drought conditions at the Medina River south of Pipe Creek, Texas August 17, 2011.

Photo: Express-News

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Medina Lake is down approaching 38 feet as of August 17, 2011 according to Bandera County Park supervisor Ken McMahon. This scene is about a half mile from the park.

Medina Lake is down approaching 38 feet as of August 17, 2011 according to Bandera County Park supervisor Ken McMahon. This scene is about a half mile from the park.

Photo: JOHN DAVENPORT, Express-News

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A dock hangs on a limestone cliff that once floated in the current of the Medina River south of Pipe Creek, Texas, and north of Medina Lake. Real estate in the area has been affected by the state's scorching drought this summer.

A dock hangs on a limestone cliff that once floated in the current of the Medina River south of Pipe Creek, Texas, and north of Medina Lake. Real estate in the area has been affected by the state's scorching

A canoe hangs on a limestone cliff over an area between Pipe Creek, Texas, and Medina Lake where the Medina River used to flow. The state's drought has affected real estate in the river and lakefront areas.

A canoe hangs on a limestone cliff over an area between Pipe Creek, Texas, and Medina Lake where the Medina River used to flow. The state's drought has affected real estate in the river and lakefront areas.

Photo: SAN ANTONIO EXPRESS-NEWS

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Water levels on lakefront and riverfront properties are being affected by the state's scorching drought. Medina lake level is down more than 30 feet.

Water levels on lakefront and riverfront properties are being affected by the state's scorching drought. Medina lake level is down more than 30 feet.

Photo: JOHN DAVENPORT/jdavenport@express-news.net, SAN ANTONIO EXPRESS-NEWS

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Will George stands in an area that would normally be covered with water at his property on the north side of Canyon Lake on July 22, 2011.

Will George stands in an area that would normally be covered with water at his property on the north side of Canyon Lake on July 22, 2011.

Photo: ANDREW BUCKLEY, Express-News

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S.A. teeters on brink of Stage 3 water rules

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The water level of the Edwards Aquifer J-17 monitoring well has dropped more than two feet since Monday, putting San Antonio on the edge of triggering Stage 3 watering restrictions.

Unless the region gets rain very soon, the Edwards Aquifer Authority and San Antonio Water System are predicting that sometime between next week and mid-September, outdoor watering with sprinklers and irrigation systems will be limited to one day every other week.

The same would apply to Bexar Metropolitan Water District customers as well.

Once declared, the restrictions have to remain for at least a month. But it's likely they will stay around much longer — even through next summer.

The National Weather Service is predicting Texas will be warmer and drier than average through the winter. With San Antonio already more than 14 inches behind average rainfall for the year, that does not bode well for the drought ending this year or even the first half of 2012. There would have to be a significant reversal of the weather pattern, what forecasters call a “regime change.”

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“The rainfall deficit so far is so large we in some ways have had the equivalent of two years of drought in one year,” state climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon. said. “It is likely that this drought will continue in many parts of the state for next summer.”

Across South and Central Texas, rivers are nearing and surpassing all-time lows, pecan and oak trees that have stood for decades are dying of thirst, and there is concern this drought has the potential to compete with the worst one on record, which lasted from 1947 to 1956.

“The fact that the drought of the 1950s happened means it is entirely likely that a worse one can happen again,” Nielsen-Gammon said. “Records are unfortunately made to be broken and unfortunately so is the drought of record.”

Besides little rain, San Antonio has had 44 days of 100 degrees or higher temperatures this year, the second-highest of all time. The highest was 59 in 2009. Now in third place is 1998 with 36.

From under the water

For those who lived through the 1950s, the idea that such a drought could happen again is daunting.

“It makes me nervous as hell because I know where it can go,” said Bill “Big Willie” George. “It was just like it is now; it just did not rain, period.”

Born in 1924 in New Braunfels, George remembers watching the top soil of his father's and grandfather's ranch dry up and blow away.

Spurred by similar losses across the state, Texas went on a reservoir building spree in the 1960s that included Canyon Lake Dam, which put George's boyhood home underwater.

Now living on the remains of his grandfather's ranch, which is being subdivided to make room for million-dollar lake view homes, George watches the stone walls his family built re-emerge as the reservoir behind the dam drops.

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He may soon be able to see the path he took to school.

The Climate Prediction Center of the weather service foresees a 33 percent to 40 percent chance of Texas having below-average rainfall through January.

“If you look at it like playing craps, the dice are a little shaved to favor a certain outcome,” said Mike Halpert, the center's deputy director.

Unfortunately, that outcome is not what Texas needs to break the drought and raise the level of the Edwards and other aquifers. It actually needs several months of above-average rainfall, according to the EAA and the weather service.

The center is putting the odds of that not happening at more than 70 percent. It's also predicting a strong chance that the tropical waters of the Pacific will be cooler and trigger the La Niña weather pattern, which usually means drier and warmer conditions for Texas.

“Drought begets drought,” said Mark Brundrett a meteorologist at the Austin/San Antonio weather service office. “That's the nature of a drought.”

Brundrett explained that the drier the lower levels of the atmosphere become, the stronger the storm system needed to break it up.

On average, San Antonio's best shot at a major rainstorm is in September when tropical depressions and or hurricanes come off the Gulf of Mexico.

“If we don't get anything in the next month, we are pretty much out of luck if we go into a La Niña pattern,” Brundrett said. “Even if we got the rainfall next month, it probably won't be a big drought-buster.”

And that would leave Texas waiting for late spring 2012, a time of year when there's often a spike in rainfall.

But for now with no water flowing into Canyon Lake from the Guadalupe River, the reservoir is expected to drop below the record low that was set during the drought of 2009, and George is getting to see more and more of his old boyhood haunts.

As much as he likes to reminisce, he would rather those places stay submerged.

“It was a rough, rough time,” he said of the 1950s drought, describing how he watched trees with 2-foot-thick trunks die and his father scrape together money to buy feed for the family's milk cows.

“This makes me pretty nervous,” he said. “But as long as this high pressure sits on top of us, it's going to continue.”