We have had some freezing weather this week. The coldest that I saw was 28, but the last couple of nights have been in the mid-30s.

Right now I am stalling on going outside to tackle the mountain of outside work because it is only 43 degrees out. (The TV says Wabeno is only 41..) As long as I am hiding from the weather I grabbed the chance to do an update.

This winter looks like it will bring a medium strong El Nino. That isn’t good at all. I took a long look at the data Thursday night. It does not look like it will be quite as strong as 97-98’s El Nino, but it looks pretty robust.

At this link (PDF) farther down on page 24 theIRI/CPC Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Model Outlook shows a composite graph of 26 models and the yellow line is the mean of them. It is showing a high probability of temperature anomalies of over 2ºC in Nino 3.4, one of the key areas. Anything over about +0.5º is considered El Nino conditions.

Looking at the probability graph we are in the 95% range for a 2º+ El Nino early winter and down to 55% for late winter and spring.

Exactly how it will play out remains to be seen. Maybe it will work out well for us, you just never know. Personally I am getting ready for a strong winter just like I never heard of or followed the El Nino evolution.

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