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Buckeye Battleground | GOP’s rural edge vs. Toledo unions

View SlideshowRequest to buy this photoMadalyn Ruggiero | FOR THE DISPATCHThe election is on the lips of diners at The Barn Restaurant in Delta, Ohio. Discussing it are, from left, John Krauss, Luke Ankney, Lowell Neuenschwander and Kevin Vandock.

For 60 years, farmers have chewed over the issues of the day at The Barn Restaurant, and for 35
years Peabody has tried to avoid the fray, knowing it’s better for business if she keeps her mind
on the bacon and eggs cooking on her grill.

“I pay no attention to it, for my own good,” said the owner of one of northwestern Ohio’s
most-enduring landmarks. “I could write a book, but then I probably wouldn’t have any customers
left.”

Morning after morning, what Peabody often hears as the presidential election draws near are
sentiments like those spoken the other day by Lowell Neuenschwander, an 88-year-old retired farmer
from Delta.

“I don’t think Obama’s done much of anything except spend money.”

Or this from John Krauss, 54, a heavy-equipment operator from Delta: “I worked less since Obama’s
been in office than I did before he was in office.”

Thirty-five miles to the east in Toledo, at Zingers Food & Spirits behind Chrysler’s
sprawling Jeep plant, gritty union members enjoy thick cheeseburgers for lunch and discuss the day’s
politics, seasoned with a distinct Democratic flavor.

Day after day, they’re thankful to be working, and it’s not unusual to hear sentiments like
those spoken the other day by John Solly, a 43-year-old electrician working at the Jeep plant.

“If Romney gets elected, I give up. How do you make a guy president who says, ‘Let Detroit go
bankrupt?’ ”

Or this from Sean Warns, 35, another electrician at the plant: “We’ve got a job over there. I’m
pretty sure (Chrysler) wouldn’t be doing what they’re doing right now — a huge expansion — without
the bailout.”

As a place to take the temperature of voters, the evenly divided 12-county region of
northwestern Ohio is as good as any in the nation. This neck of the Ohio woods is the bellwether’s
bellwether in presidential elections, improbably mirroring the statewide vote with uncanny accuracy
for nearly five decades.

It is in this region, which was hammered by the recession, where Democrat Barack Obama and
Republican Mitt Romney are fiercely adjudicating their economic arguments, because the winner here
probably will be the winner of Ohio — and beyond.

Between 1964 and 2004, the region not only picked the Ohio winners — 11 for 11 — but it did so
with amazing accuracy. In those presidential elections, the average difference between the regional
and statewide results was less than half a percentage point.

What’s more remarkable is that the region is a quirky political mix — one giant Democratic
county, Toledo-dominated Lucas, surrounded by reliably Republican farming counties — with evenly
offsetting voting loyalties.

But after the vote was tallied in 2008, there was something different in the numbers. Although
the region picked the winner for a 12th straight election, the margin of Obama’s victory was more
than 5 points higher than the statewide outcome.

The reason, according to political observers: The auto-dependent Toledo region was hurting more
than other areas of Ohio, and voters were in a mood for change. The region’s unemployment rate was
almost 8 percent in 2008, nearly a half percentage point higher than even chronically ailing
Appalachian Ohio. In 2009, the northwestern region had an average unemployment rate of 11.7 p
ercent, highest among the state’s regions.

In August, northwestern Ohio’s unemployment rate was markedly better — 7 percent — and the Obama
campaign is touting its $80 billion rescue package for General Motors and Chrysler — both of which
are expanding their huge Toledo plants and hiring more workers — as a major reason for the
improvement.

“With an issue like this — where 1 in 8 jobs is tied to the auto industry in Ohio, and 80 of 88
counties in the state are home to an auto-supply parts manufacturer — it’s been a pretty easy story
to tell across the Buckeye State,” said an Ohio-based senior adviser to the Obama campaign who
asked not to be named.

Russell W. Mills, a political scientist at Bowling Green State University, said the bailout
helps Obama in the region and hurts Romney, who opposed it.

“Obama’s getting credit for what people perceive as a good economic rebound in this part of the
state, and his campaign has done a great job of reminding people that Gov. Romney would have pulled
the plug and let the industry go through a bankruptcy,” Mills said.

The political potency of the bailout was obvious in many interviews, including with a woman who
picketed a rally at a Toledo Express Airport hangar by U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan, Romney’s vice
presidential running mate.

“After what the president did for the auto industry, we have been working on his campaign ever
since,” said Debbie Eastern-Hall of Toledo, a retired GM employee and union member.

But not all in organized labor are happy with Obama. Bill Lichtenwald of Toledo, president of
the Ohio Conference of Teamsters, said the president failed to deliver on campaign promises to
oppose new free-trade agreements. But because “Romney definitely hates organized labor,” the union
is supporting Obama as “the lesser of two evils,” Lichtenwald said.

“I don’t think the Democrats are as excited this election as the last election,” he said. “So,
apathy will be (Obama’s) biggest problem, but on the other hand, I don’t think Romney gets
Republicans excited.”

As they sipped coffee at The Barn Restaurant, Dallas Whaley and Larry Reynolds agreed they’re
not excited, and, typical of the region, they aren’t voting alike.