Tuesday, January 10, 2017

2016 Best Actress Final Predictions

This is an incredibly strong year for leading actresses. There will be a lot of quality contenders left out. While there are so many strong actresses there is no real clear frontrunner. This could go several ways.Have Emma Stone as the current frontrunner, especially if La La Land sweeps the night. Amy Adams has had five previous nominations, she is definitely due. But we should have seen her win more during the precursors for Arrival if it was her time. Earlier it seemed like Natalie Portman would take it for Jackie, but that film has fallen out of the conversation. Her Golden Globe loss was notable. Isabelle Huppert could get a veteran vote for a challenging role in Elle, foreign language films can often do well here. One of these four will win, Stone has the current edge as she is attach to a potential Best Picture frontrunner. All are assured nominations.

That would leave the final slot going to Meryl Streep for Florence Foster Jenkins. The film performed well and the Golden Globes proved how beloved the Oscar staple continues to be. This won't earn her a fourth Oscar, but she is most likely going to have a nomination. Although if there is a surprise, she is the one to go.

Here are my predictions and analysis for Best Actress:

PREDICTED NOMINEES

Emma Stone,

La La Land

Amy Adams,

Arrival

Natalie Portman,

Jackie

Isabelle Huppert,

Elle

Meryl Streep,

Florence Foster
Jenkins

No frontrunner for this category.You could make the case for four actresses
winning.Right now Emma Stone seems
most likely.Well-liked, young talent with
a previous nomination who is starring in one of the Best Picture
frontrunners.Not a strong lock, but
until a SAG winner shakes it up, she seems most likely.

Amy Adams has lost five times before.She is definitely due and she has had a
good year.Arrival did great business
and she also played the Oscar game with Nocturnal Animals.However she should have been winning more
in the precursors if she was going to have her career win.

Seemed like the frontrunner earlier, but the film has
almost completely fallen out of the awards conversation.She should get a nomination, but it doesn’t
seem strong enough for her to second win.Her career hasn’t been strong enough in recent years and this isn’t a
strong enough film to give a fairly young actress a second leading Oscar win.

The Golden Globe winner that many seemed to think wouldn’t
make the final cut. Huppert is a veteran actress in a powerful, controversial
role.Her performance has the edge her
competition lacks.This is also the
category where foreign language performances can do well.She may end up with the Oscar in the end.

Her Golden Globe speech clinched her Oscar
nomination.Factor in Hugh Grant’s
likely nomination and there is enough strength for Streep.She has been nominated pretty consistently
in recent years over strong competition (August: Osage County, Into the
Woods).She will continue her streak
as being an Oscar mainstay.

THE RUNNER-UPS

Annette Bening,

20th
Century Women

Emily Blunt,

The Girl on the
Train

Taraji P. Henson,

Hidden Figures

Ruth Negga,

Loving

Jessica Chastain,

Miss Sloane

Bening is one that pundits seem to overestimate.She is well respected, but is inconsistent
when it comes to the Oscars.Her film
isn’t strong enough, but she has remained in the conversation just enough to
stay a runner-up.

Not really an Oscar film, but Blunt received a surprise
SAG and BAFTA nomination for the role.Rosamund Pike was nominated for a similar pulpy role a few years
ago.Blunt is on her way to an Oscar
nomination, especially after missing for Sicario last year.It isn’t a sure thing, but she is still in
the running.

Previous Oscar nominee with a popular TV series.This film should be fresh in voters’ minds
and is doing great at the box-office.It isn’t the showiest Oscar bait, but Henson is strong enough for
continued consideration.

Negga is falling out of contention with stronger
competition outperforming her.She is
not a name yet, while the others in consideration are a bit more
established.Loving needs some Best
Picture love for her to make the cut, but it seems less and less likely.

Chastain missed her Oscar a few years ago and will
definitely earn her way back.Miss
Sloane did well enough, but she is a fairly weak contender at this stage of
the race.She will have to wait for
another year.

THE LONG SHOTS

Rebecca Hall,

Christine

Kate Beckinsale,

Love &
Friendship

Amy Adams,

Nocturnal Animals

Sally Field,

Hello, My Name is
Doris

Marion Cotillard,

Allied

Hall has done a lot of great work, but has never been up
for Oscar consideration.This is her
edgiest performance, but the film seems too small.

Surprise arthouse hit from earlier in the year and the
best chance Beckinsale has ever had at an Oscar nomination.Not strong enough though.

Bolstering Adams Oscar credentials is another baity
film.Nocturnal Animals is not a sure
thing, but some voting bodies have responded to it.Not going to overshadow Arrival, but
definitely worth mentioning.

Veteran actress with a great late in life lead role.This was released too early for Field to
make the cut.

Cotillard is always interesting in Oscar season.She almost always has one role in early
contention, but they usually fall off by the time the Oscar nominations are
announced.This year is no different.