Monday, September 22, 2008

Who Will Win The NL West? - DOUBLE UPDATED

I am using my simulator to determine the Dodgers' odds of winning the NL West. I simulated each remaining game for the Dodgers and Diamondbacks, using what should be the likely starters for the remainder of games. I then use a random number generator from 0 to 1 to determine if each game is a win or a loss for each of the two teams. I do this 1 million times, calculating how many times each team ends up winning the NL West. If the two teams tie for first place, I then do the same thing for a 163rd game. Below is a table showing the win probabilities and likely pitching matchups for each remaining game, with the results of my simulation.

Date

Visitors

Home

Pitching Matchup

Win Probability

Result

9/23

Padres

Dodgers

W.LeBlanc vs C.Billingsley

.7087

Win

9/23

DBacks

Cardinals

R.Johnson vs K.Lohse

.4492

Loss

9/24

Padres

Dodgers

S.Estes vs C.Kershaw

.6811

Win

9/24

DBacks

Cardinals

M.Scherzer vs A.Wainwright

.4441

Loss

9/25

Padres

Dodgers

J.Peavy vs G.Maddux

.6211

TBD

9/25

DBacks

Cardinals

D.Davis vs J.Pineiro

.4841

Loss

9/26

Dodgers

Giants

H.Kuroda vs B.Hennessey

.6400

TBD

9/26

Rockies

DBacks

J.Hirsh vs D.Haren

.6566

TBD

9/27

Dodgers

Giants

D.Lowe vs M.Cain

.5696

TBD

9/27

Rockies

DBacks

G.Reynolds vs B.Webb

.7505

TBD

9/28

Dodgers

Giants

C.Billingsley vs T.Lincecum

.4998

TBD

9/28

Rockies

DBacks

J.Jimenez vs R.Johnson

.5384

TBD

9/29

DBacks

Dodgers

M.Scherzer vs C.Kershaw

.5499

TBD

Note: All win probabilities are listed for the Dodgers or Diamondbacks, and for the Dodgers on the 9/29 game.

Team

Divisions Titles

Dodgers

100.00%

DBacks

0.00%

1 million iterations were ran.

Update: It's all over folks. The Cardinals defeated the Diamondbacks three times in a row and on September 25th eliminated the Diamondbacks from contention. Good luck to the Dodgers in the playoffs.