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NT election too close to call

ELIZABETH JACKSON: Northern Territorians go to the polls today, and bookies had the Opposition just slightly ahead.

Labor has enjoyed 11 years in power in the Northern Territory, the last four only with the support of an Independent.

All will be answered later this evening, but in the meantime AM's Tony Eastley is in Darwin.

Tony, good morning, is there any last minute information that might give us some idea about which way this is going to go?

TONY EASTLEY: Well, this is one of the dreadful things about this election in the Northern Territory, Liz, you don't have quantitative or qualitative polls, really at all. And, so the best thing you can go on is anecdotal evidence coming from the parties, anecdotal evidence picked up in placed like, you know, the Parap Markets or Rapid Creek Markets, or Mindil Beach, wherever you go.

And it would seem that there was, there is a swing onto the CLP, the Country Liberals, but just how much we don't know. But, then again Liz, you know, with 25 seats in parliament, and it's split 12, 12 and an Independent, you don't need much of a swing to change government.

ELIZABETH JACKSON: So where are you this morning?

TONY EASTLEY: I'm down in the seat of Nightcliff, it's one of nine Darwin seats. It's these suburban Darwin seats in the North that will probably hold the key to everything, and Nightcliff's no exception.

Now, what I was saying before, you've got 12, 12 - you know, 12 for Labor, 12 for the CLP, one Independent - and Nightcliff is particularly interesting, because here the Labor member, the sitting Labor member is retiring, and it's opened up for a huge field.

They're mainly young women being put forward by Labor, a schoolteacher, Natasha Fyles; the Opposition, the Country Liberals, they've got a probation and parole officer, Kim Loveday. Now, they're expected to fight it out, but you've got all these other independents coming in from the sides. You've got the Greens as well as the Australian Sex Party - I still don't quite know what they're pushing - a community garden activist who did time for murder. They're all in the mix.

So, this seat of Nightcliff would only have to go against Labor and, you know, the whole show is up for Labor and 11 years in power.

ELIZABETH JACKSON: So, are the parties wildly different in their policies?

TONY EASTLEY: Not overly Liz, not overly. I mean, both will say they're not going to cut the public service. And when you've got a public service as big as this, you know, which contributes something like 25 per cent of the economy in the Northern Territory you've got to say that. The Defence Forces up here even make that figure even bigger, blows out to about 32 per cent.

So they're both saying no real cutbacks to the public service. Law and order, there are some differences there. Most notably, the CLP has run hard with its prison farms and work farms ideas. This is where you rehabilitate chronic alcoholics and people who have offended while drinking heavily.

Now that idea has had some traction, the practicalities of it are another thing, of course, setting up these farms all around the Territory.

ELIZABETH JACKSON: Now, as you've already mentioned, Tony, there are no polls on which we can guage the outcome. But, there is one source that the CLP might be just slightly ahead. Tell us about that.

TONY EASTLEY: Well you alluded to it before, about the bookies. It's not a great indicator, Liz, but you know, bookies hate giving their money away, and you know, so they're saying, Sportsbet, yesterday afternoon, had the CLP shortening to $1.37 ahead of the ALP at $2.85.

Now, I noticed late last night, or early this morning, it went from $1.37 into $1.48 and the ALP came in a little bit at $2.50. But, the bookies still have the CLP ahead. And I think it's because if you couple that with some earlier polling conducted - some consider fairly good analysis - that there is this idea of a pent-up swing in the Northern Territory. That after 11 years Labor will just suffer from that 'it's time' factor, and the swing says, you know, that the northern suburbs seats are the ones to watch on election night. Outside of Darwin, you know, the pin-up swings are found in Stuart and Daly.

But I think it will come down to just one seat like this one, say at Nightcliff, Liz. It may go to Labor again, but there's every chance it will go to the CLP. And as I say, with 25 seats in parliament split down the middle, it doesn't take much to change government.

ELIZABETH JACKSON: Tony Eastley, thank you.

That's AM's Tony Eastley, and of course, Tony will be back on Sunday morning at 8 O'clock with a special election wrap-up of AM.

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