Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic

Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

Risk

Area (sq. mi.)

Area Pop.

Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area

No Risk Areas Forecast

SPC AC 101245
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0645 AM CST FRI JAN 10 2014
VALID 101300Z - 111200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK OVER THE PACIFIC NW INTO CNTRL ROCKIES
WILL DEVELOP EQUATORWARD...CONTRIBUTING TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF A
FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH CNTRL NORTH AMERICA.
FORCING FOR ASCENT/DCVA ATTENDANT TO THIS UPPER-AIR SYSTEM WILL
FOSTER THE MOVEMENT AND SUBSEQUENT DEEPENING OF A SURFACE LOW FROM
WRN KS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WHERE IT WILL MERGE WITH A
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPING ESEWD ACROSS S-CNTRL
CANADA.
A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE MIGRATORY SURFACE LOW WILL INTENSIFY FROM
ERN KS TO W-CNTRL TX THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SWEEPING EWD THROUGH THE
MID MS VALLEY...AND SEWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY OVERTAKE A LATITUDINALLY
ORIENTED WARM FRONT MOVING NWD THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND
AR/WRN TN...AS WELL AS A DRYLINE/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WHICH WILL
ADVANCE FROM WRN INTO CNTRL TX.
...SERN OK / ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...
CURRENT SURFACE/BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE-DERIVED PW DATA
INDICATE A CORRIDOR OF RICHER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE STRETCHING FROM
THE BAHAMAS AND CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA WSWWD THROUGH THE SRN GULF OF
MEXICO WITH A MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR MASS RETURNING THROUGH THE
NWRN GULF INTO TX. THE SRN EXTENSION OF A SWLY LLJ WILL HASTEN THE
INLAND FLUX OF THIS MODIFIED AIR MASS WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE
LOWER/MID 60S AT LEAST THROUGH THE I-10 CORRIDOR WITH GENERALLY 50S
FARTHER TO THE NORTH WITHIN THE POLEWARD-EXPANDING WARM SECTOR.
HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD MULTI-LAYER CLOUDS...THE MARGINAL MOISTURE
CONTENT...AND A WARM EML AND ASSOCIATED CAP /SEE THE 12Z BRO AND CRP
SOUNDINGS/ WILL INHIBIT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE PEAK OF
THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES REMAINING AT OR BELOW
500-1000 J/KG.
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE TODAY
WITHIN THE WARM-CONVEYOR AIR STREAM PRECEDING THE UPPER
TROUGH...FROM N-CNTRL/NERN TX INTO WRN/NRN AR AND SRN MO. THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL INCREASE IN THE 10/21-11/00Z
TIME FRAME INVOF THE ARKLATEX NEAR THE WARM/COLD FRONT-DRYLINE
TRIPLE POINT SWD TO ALONG AND E OF THE DRYLINE. HERE...STORMS MAY
EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE LINE SEGMENTS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS AND A POSSIBLY A TORNADO GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.
BY LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE
INTO A NARROW FORCED BAND AS IT IS OVERTAKEN BY THE ACCELERATING
COLD FRONT. INCREASING ANAFRONTAL FORCING AND DECREASING INSTABILITY
SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THIS TSTM REGIME.
...CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...
A SEPARATE CORRIDOR OF TSTMS IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE GENERALLY AFTER
11/03Z AHEAD OF THE COLD-FRONTAL STORMS WITHIN A ZONE OF INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE FROM SERN LA/SRN MS INTO AL AND THE FL PNHDL.
MODEL-DERIVED FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE MAJORITY OF THESE
STORMS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ABOVE A SHALLOW NEAR-SURFACE
INVERSION. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS WHERE
SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING/MOISTENING MAY OCCUR TO SUPPORT A
LOW-PROBABILITY RISK FOR A TORNADO AND/OR STRONG WIND GUST.
..MEAD/GARNER.. 01/10/2014
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z