Hurricane MARIE (Text)

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HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014
800 PM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014
Marie has likely peaked in intensity. Deep convection in the
hurricane's central dense overcast has warmed over the eastern
semicircle and become less symmetric. The eye has also become
cloud-filled in last-light visible satellite imagery, and has cooled
some in infrared imagery. A 2332 UTC SSMI/S pass suggested that an
eyewall replacement is underway, with a secondary eyewall noted at
around 60 n mi radius at that time. The initial intensity is
lowered to 130 kt for this advisory, based on a blend of Dvorak
intensity estimates from 0000 UTC.
The ongoing eyewall replacement could result in fluctuations of
intensity in the short term for which there is little to no
predictability. Regardless, Marie is expected to remain a major
hurricane for the next day or two as it continues to move over
relatively warm waters and through a moist, low-shear environment.
Even though the shear should remain quite low after that time, Marie
will be traversing considerably cooler waters and ingesting drier
and more stable air. These factors should result in a rapid
spin-down of the cyclone late in the forecast period, and remnant
low status is now indicated on day 4. Considering the current
reduction in intensity, the NHC wind speed forecast is lower than
the previous one and lies between the multi-model consensus and the
SHIPS model output.
After wobbling a bit toward the west or west-southwest earlier
today, the eye of Marie has resumed a west-northwestward motion of
290/10. There have been no significant changes regarding the track
forecast philosophy. Marie is expected to be steered on a west-
northwestward to northwestward course during the next few days
around the southwestern periphery of a mid-tropospheric ridge
extending into the subtropical eastern Pacific. After becoming a
remnant low late in the forecast period, the cyclone is expected to
turn north-northwestward and slow down. The latest track forecast
is little to the right of the previous one, mostly as a result
of Marie's discontinuous jog to the right earlier today.
Although Marie is expected to remain well off the coast of Mexico,
very large swells will affect southwestern Mexico through tomorrow
and much of the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula
during the next few days. Southerly swells will also reach the
coast of southern California by Tuesday, producing life-threatening
surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal flooding.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0300Z 16.6N 112.8W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 17.5N 114.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 18.9N 116.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 20.2N 118.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 21.4N 120.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 23.9N 125.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 29/0000Z 27.0N 129.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/0000Z 30.0N 131.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
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