Bay County – Beaver, Fraser, Garfield, Gibson, Kawkawlin, Monitor (precinct 3,5), Mount Forest, Pinconning, and Williams Townships. Also the City of Auburn, City of Pinconning, and precinct 1 in the City of Midland (most of which is in Midland County) is included.

There are a lot of ticket splitting counties there. All of Stupak’s contests under the current borders have essentially been the same, so I’m going to nitpick all of them. His weakest showing was actually in the democrat year of 2008. That’s because his opponent was Tom Casperson, a former state rep, instead of Don Hooper who has low name ID. Stupak ran 15% ahead of Obama, instead of 20% ahead of John Kerry. That’s like going 12-4 in NFL football instead of 14-2 because you played the Vikings and Steelers instead of the Browns and Lions….and you’re still the 1980’s 49’ers.

The most recent election here was 2008. It was like the others in results, although Casperson, who comes from the same state rep district as Stupak, actually did the best this decade against Stupak. That was due to his reducing the loss in Delta County.

2008 Election

Casperson

Stupak

3rd Party

Total

Diff.

GOP%

Dem%

Diff%

Alcona

2,183

4,003

139

6,325

-1820

34.51%

63.29%

-28.77%

Alger

1,594

3,054

68

4,716

-1460

33.80%

64.76%

-30.96%

Alpena

4,095

10,613

272

14,980

-6518

27.34%

70.85%

-43.51%

Antrim

5,510

7,721

378

13,609

-2211

40.49%

56.73%

-16.25%

Arenac

2,434

5,041

289

7,764

-2607

31.35%

64.93%

-33.58%

Baraga

1,224

2,352

54

3,630

-1128

33.72%

64.79%

-31.07%

Bay

4,980

10,448

589

16,017

-5468

31.09%

65.23%

-34.14%

Charlevoix

5,199

8,596

408

14,203

-3397

36.60%

60.52%

-23.92%

Cheboygan

4,282

9,139

276

13,697

-4857

31.26%

66.72%

-35.46%

Chippewa

4,460

11,710

362

16,532

-7250

26.98%

70.83%

-43.85%

Crawford

2,245

4,500

242

6,987

-2255

32.13%

64.41%

-32.27%

Delta

7,857

11,099

125

19,081

-3242

41.18%

58.17%

-16.99%

Dickinson

5,108

8,041

162

13,311

-2933

38.37%

60.41%

-22.03%

Emmet

6,933

10,353

489

17,775

-3420

39.00%

58.24%

-19.24%

Gladwin

4,488

7,880

460

12,828

-3392

34.99%

61.43%

-26.44%

Gogebic

1,974

5,998

212

8,184

-4024

24.12%

73.29%

-49.17%

Houghton

5,797

9,714

304

15,815

-3917

36.66%

61.42%

-24.77%

Iosco

3,898

9,649

340

13,887

-5751

28.07%

69.48%

-41.41%

Iron

1,825

4,269

73

6,167

-2444

29.59%

69.22%

-39.63%

Keweenaw

544

831

29

1,404

-287

38.75%

59.19%

-20.44%

Luce

892

1,767

59

2,718

-875

32.82%

65.01%

-32.19%

Mackinac

1,864

4,366

109

6,339

-2502

29.41%

68.88%

-39.47%

Marquette

8,853

23,550

616

33,019

-14697

26.81%

71.32%

-44.51%

Menominee

3,687

7,214

112

11,013

-3527

33.48%

65.50%

-32.03%

Montmorency

1,641

3,490

135

5,266

-1849

31.16%

66.27%

-35.11%

Ogemaw

3,088

6,963

317

10,368

-3875

29.78%

67.16%

-37.37%

Ontonagon

1,088

2,705

97

3,890

-1617

27.97%

69.54%

-41.57%

Oscoda

1,425

2,677

130

4,232

-1252

33.67%

63.26%

-29.58%

Otsego

4,505

7,632

271

12,408

-3127

36.31%

61.51%

-25.20%

Presque Isle

2,168

5,097

174

7,439

-2929

29.14%

68.52%

-39.37%

Schoolcraft

1,499

2,744

66

4,309

-1245

34.79%

63.68%

-28.89%

Total

107,340

213,216

7,357

327,913

-105876

32.73%

65.02%

-32.29%

Casperson’s best counties were Republican base counties outside of Delta County, which says much about Stupak’s crossover strength. What makes this district so difficult is that not only is it gigantic in area, it is very rural. Marquette County, by far the largest in population, had about 10% of the vote in the congressional election. It’s not all that much different in the presidential races, which I’ll throw in.The largest portion is only 10% of the vote. There’s no dominating region, even if you split Yooper and Troll (in the district) regions. There isn’t a lot of difference anymore between “Yooper” and Northeastern “Trolls” in voting. 150,784 of the votes were Yoopers which went 51.90% for Obama and 46.19% for McCain (which I think is still lower than Dukakis, and much lower than Clinton). McCain won the Northern lower portion 49.64% to 48.47%. Much of the wins are from the portions of the district closer to Lake Michigan than Lake Huron (Emmett, Otsego, Antrim Counties)

2008 Election

McCain

Obama

3rd Party

Total

Diff.

GOP%

Dem%

Diff%

Alcona

3,404

2,896

120

6,420

508

53.02%

45.11%

7.91%

Alger

2,188

2,472

87

4,747

-284

46.09%

52.07%

-5.98%

Alpena

7,125

7,705

255

15,085

-580

47.23%

51.08%

-3.84%

Antrim

7,506

6,079

267

13,852

1427

54.19%

43.89%

10.30%

Arenac

3,807

4,155

166

8,128

-348

46.84%

51.12%

-4.28%

Baraga

1,846

1,725

73

3,644

121

50.66%

47.34%

3.32%

Bay

0

0

0

-

0

#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!

Charlevoix

7,306

6,817

244

14,367

489

50.85%

47.45%

3.40%

Cheboygan

6,920

6,720

261

13,901

200

49.78%

48.34%

1.44%

Chippewa

8,267

8,184

257

16,708

83

49.48%

48.98%

0.50%

Crawford

3,561

3,441

176

7,178

120

49.61%

47.94%

1.67%

Delta

8,763

9,974

329

19,066

-1211

45.96%

52.31%

-6.35%

Dickinson

7,049

5,995

267

13,311

1054

52.96%

45.04%

7.92%

Emmet

9,314

8,515

320

18,149

799

51.32%

46.92%

4.40%

Gladwin

6,391

6,590

145

13,126

-199

48.69%

50.21%

-1.52%

Gogebic

3,330

4,757

177

8,264

-1427

40.30%

57.56%

-17.27%

Houghton

8,101

7,476

365

15,942

625

50.82%

46.89%

3.92%

Iosco

6,583

7,309

295

14,187

-726

46.40%

51.52%

-5.12%

Iron

2,947

3,080

135

6,162

-133

47.83%

49.98%

-2.16%

Keweenaw

756

610

44

1,410

146

53.62%

43.26%

10.35%

Luce

1490

1,191

59

2,740

299

54.38%

43.47%

10.91%

Mackinac

3,268

3,027

38

6,333

241

51.60%

47.80%

3.81%

Marquette

12,906

19,635

634

33,175

-6729

38.90%

59.19%

-20.28%

Menominee

4,855

5,981

236

11,072

-1126

43.85%

54.02%

-10.17%

Montmorency

2,841

2,403

116

5,360

438

53.00%

44.83%

8.17%

Ogemaw

5,133

5,391

244

10,768

-258

47.67%

50.07%

-2.40%

Ontonagon

1,823

1,966

96

3,885

-143

46.92%

50.60%

-3.68%

Oscoda

2,320

1,887

121

4,328

433

53.60%

43.60%

10.00%

Otsego

6,752

5,634

230

12,616

1118

53.52%

44.66%

8.86%

Presque Isle

3,606

3,722

177

7,505

-116

48.05%

49.59%

-1.55%

Schoolcraft

2,058

2,184

83

4,325

-126

47.58%

50.50%

-2.91%

Bay County:

City of Auburn

590

591

15

1,196

-1

49.33%

49.41%

-0.08%

Beaver Twp

796

744

26

1,566

52

50.83%

47.51%

3.32%

Fraser Twp

715

1,006

32

1,753

-291

40.79%

57.39%

-16.60%

Garfield Twp

425

500

13

938

-75

45.31%

53.30%

-8.00%

Gibson Twp

239

294

14

547

-55

43.69%

53.75%

-10.05%

Kawkawlin Twp

1,187

1,391

52

2,630

-204

45.13%

52.89%

-7.76%

City of Midland (1)

22

41

1

64

-19

34.38%

64.06%

-29.69%

Monitor Twp (3)

650

520

20

1,190

130

54.62%

43.70%

10.92%

Monitor Twp (5)

619

644

20

1,283

-25

48.25%

50.19%

-1.95%

Mount Forest Twp

342

383

22

747

-41

45.78%

51.27%

-5.49%

City of Pinconning

200

378

11

589

-178

33.96%

64.18%

-30.22%

Pinconning Twp

614

700

22

1,336

-86

45.96%

52.40%

-6.44%

Portsmouth Twp

855

1,108

25

1,988

-253

43.01%

55.73%

-12.73%

Williams Twp

1,404

1,331

54

2,789

73

50.34%

47.72%

2.62%

Total

160,874

167,152

6,344

334,370

-6278

48.11%

49.99%

-1.88%

That was the 08, which was a big swing from the 04 and 00 elections, where Bush won this district quite easily. 08 was Obama’s year, and this is no different. The Western UP (Wisconsin area) returned to the democrat roots, and Marquette was even more democrat than usual. Even still, Obama could not quite break the 50% barrier due to 3rd party votes. While Obama won big in Bay County overall, he was held to 51.74% in this portion of the county. This part of Bay County does not have Bay City.

The other big dem year recently was 06. There are a large number of state workers in the 1st district. Mostly in corrections or the DNR (you can almost throw in MEA as well, but they are strong statewide). While the numbers in the end statewide were similar between Granholm 06 and Obama 08, a closer look shows that is not the case by district. Much as Bush 00 and Posthumus 02’s numbers were similar statewide, but different by district. Obama’s win was due more to the minority votes and a major swing in the west side. DeVos was whacked more in rural areas in general. Democrats always do better in the 1st district in gubernatorial years as well. This was no different. Granholm outpaced Obama in a big way.

2006 Election

DeVos

Granholm

3rd Party

Total

Diff.

GOP%

Dem%

Diff%

Alcona

2,583

2,793

88

5,464

-210

47.27%

51.12%

-3.84%

Alger

1,422

2,285

59

3,766

-863

37.76%

60.67%

-22.92%

Alpena

4,689

7,187

154

12,030

-2498

38.98%

59.74%

-20.76%

Antrim

6,115

5,103

170

11,388

1012

53.70%

44.81%

8.89%

Arenac

2,805

3,737

102

6,644

-932

42.22%

56.25%

-14.03%

Baraga

1,220

1,952

59

3,231

-732

37.76%

60.41%

-22.66%

Bay

0

0

-

0

#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!

Charlevoix

5,621

5,237

268

11,126

384

50.52%

47.07%

3.45%

Cheboygan

5,891

5,457

212

11,560

434

50.96%

47.21%

3.75%

Chippewa

5,564

7,463

184

13,211

-1899

42.12%

56.49%

-14.37%

Crawford

2,765

2,932

106

5,803

-167

47.65%

50.53%

-2.88%

Delta

5,973

8,792

180

14,945

-2819

39.97%

58.83%

-18.86%

Dickinson

4,372

5,251

145

9,768

-879

44.76%

53.76%

-9.00%

Emmet

7,442

6,401

228

14,071

1041

52.89%

45.49%

7.40%

Gladwin

4,962

5,588

211

10,761

-626

46.11%

51.93%

-5.82%

Gogebic

2,216

3,821

124

6,161

-1605

35.97%

62.02%

-26.05%

Houghton

5,275

6,497

200

11,972

-1222

44.06%

54.27%

-10.21%

Iosco

5,006

6,043

172

11,221

-1037

44.61%

53.85%

-9.24%

Iron

1,914

2,843

81

4,838

-929

39.56%

58.76%

-19.20%

Keweenaw

507

632

22

1,161

-125

43.67%

54.44%

-10.77%

Luce

789

1,495

28

2,312

-706

34.13%

64.66%

-30.54%

Mackinac

2,540

2,879

64

5,483

-339

46.33%

52.51%

-6.18%

Marquette

7,773

16,341

291

24,405

-8568

31.85%

66.96%

-35.11%

Menominee

3,397

4,114

157

7,668

-717

44.30%

53.65%

-9.35%

Montmorency

2,394

2,128

89

4,611

266

51.92%

46.15%

5.77%

Ogemaw

4,109

4,561

143

8,813

-452

46.62%

51.75%

-5.13%

Ontonagon

1,318

1,782

48

3,148

-464

41.87%

56.61%

-14.74%

Oscoda

1,850

1,638

65

3,553

212

52.07%

46.10%

5.97%

Otsego

5,644

4,465

168

10,277

1179

54.92%

43.45%

11.47%

Presque Isle

2,775

3,515

91

6,381

-740

43.49%

55.09%

-11.60%

Schoolcraft

1,395

1,973

58

3,426

-578

40.72%

57.59%

-16.87%

Bay County:

City of Auburn

443

552

10

1,005

-109

44.08%

54.93%

-10.85%

Beaver Twp

579

697

18

1,294

-118

44.74%

53.86%

-9.12%

Fraser Twp

488

958

25

1,471

-470

33.17%

65.13%

-31.95%

Garfield Twp

272

480

25

777

-208

35.01%

61.78%

-26.77%

Gibson Twp

183

251

9

443

-68

41.31%

56.66%

-15.35%

Kawkawlin Twp

860

1,247

36

2,143

-387

40.13%

58.19%

-18.06%

City of Midland (1)

22

23

1

46

-1

47.83%

50.00%

-2.17%

Monitor Twp (3)

456

494

12

962

-38

47.40%

51.35%

-3.95%

Monitor Twp (5)

431

539

9

979

-108

44.02%

55.06%

-11.03%

Mount Forest Twp

273

336

4

613

-63

44.54%

54.81%

-10.28%

City of Pinconning

182

306

7

495

-124

36.77%

61.82%

-25.05%

Pinconning Twp

436

649

13

1,098

-213

39.71%

59.11%

-19.40%

Portsmouth Twp

623

1,092

26

1,741

-469

35.78%

62.72%

-26.94%

Williams Twp

1,026

1,245

33

2,304

-219

44.53%

54.04%

-9.51%

Total

116,600

143,774

4,195

264,569

-27174

44.07%

54.34%

-10.27%

Compare these to 2004 (Bush/Kerry), 2002 (Posthumus), and 2000 (Bush/Gore) at the top of the ticket.

2004 was the high water mark. Can you ask for a better opponent than John Kerry? I knew that was won (nationally) as soon as he won the nomination. I wasn’t laughing at Dean or Edwards though. Bush won all the counties except Alger, Arenac, Gogebic, Marquette, and the portion of Bay County in the district which he lost 50.48%-48.51%. Bush won the district by 7.69% margin.

2004 Election

Bush

Kerry

3rd Party

Total

Diff.

GOP%

Dem%

Diff%

Alcona

3,592

2,871

68

6,531

721

55.00%

43.96%

11.04%

Alger

2,318

2,395

52

4,765

-77

48.65%

50.26%

-1.62%

Alpena

7,665

7,407

139

15,211

258

50.39%

48.70%

1.70%

Antrim

8,379

5,072

168

13,619

3307

61.52%

37.24%

24.28%

Arenac

4,071

4,076

69

8,216

-5

49.55%

49.61%

-0.06%

Baraga

1,977

1,660

47

3,684

317

53.66%

45.06%

8.60%

Bay

0

0

-

0

#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!

Charlevoix

8,214

5,729

196

14,139

2485

58.09%

40.52%

17.58%

Cheboygan

7,798

5,941

138

13,877

1857

56.19%

42.81%

13.38%

Chippewa

9,122

7,203

163

16,488

1919

55.33%

43.69%

11.64%

Crawford

4,017

3,126

92

7,235

891

55.52%

43.21%

12.32%

Delta

9,680

9,381

177

19,238

299

50.32%

48.76%

1.55%

Dickinson

7,734

5,650

166

13,550

2084

57.08%

41.70%

15.38%

Emmet

10,332

6,846

204

17,382

3486

59.44%

39.39%

20.06%

Gladwin

6,770

6,343

114

13,227

427

51.18%

47.95%

3.23%

Gogebic

3,935

4,421

86

8,442

-486

46.61%

52.37%

-5.76%

Houghton

8,889

6,731

231

15,851

2158

56.08%

42.46%

13.61%

Iosco

7,301

6,557

148

14,006

744

52.13%

46.82%

5.31%

Iron

3,224

3,215

72

6,511

9

49.52%

49.38%

0.14%

Keweenaw

781

630

28

1,439

151

54.27%

43.78%

10.49%

Luce

1749

1,045

35

2,829

704

61.82%

36.94%

24.89%

Mackinac

3,706

2,819

84

6,609

887

56.08%

42.65%

13.42%

Marquette

14,690

17,412

386

32,488

-2722

45.22%

53.60%

-8.38%

Menominee

5,942

5,326

151

11,419

616

52.04%

46.64%

5.39%

Montmorency

3,300

2,196

67

5,563

1104

59.32%

39.48%

19.85%

Ogemaw

5,454

5,215

127

10,796

239

50.52%

48.30%

2.21%

Ontonagon

2,262

1,863

67

4,192

399

53.96%

44.44%

9.52%

Oscoda

2,570

1,792

47

4,409

778

58.29%

40.64%

17.65%

Otsego

7,470

4,674

163

12,307

2796

60.70%

37.98%

22.72%

Presque Isle

3,982

3,432

102

7,516

550

52.98%

45.66%

7.32%

Schoolcraft

2,267

2,137

37

4,441

130

51.05%

48.12%

2.93%

Bay County:

City of Auburn

641

537

7

1,185

104

54.09%

45.32%

8.78%

Beaver Twp

792

691

16

1,499

101

52.84%

46.10%

6.74%

Fraser Twp

768

992

11

1,771

-224

43.37%

56.01%

-12.65%

Garfield Twp

391

542

15

948

-151

41.24%

57.17%

-15.93%

Gibson Twp

261

293

5

559

-32

46.69%

52.42%

-5.72%

Kawkawlin Twp

1,271

1,377

25

2,673

-106

47.55%

51.52%

-3.97%

City of Midland (1)

10

28

0

38

-18

26.32%

73.68%

-47.37%

Monitor Twp (3)

474

333

7

814

141

58.23%

40.91%

17.32%

Monitor Twp (5)

434

377

13

824

57

52.67%

45.75%

6.92%

Mount Forest Twp

337

401

15

753

-64

44.75%

53.25%

-8.50%

City of Pinconning

249

377

9

635

-128

39.21%

59.37%

-20.16%

Pinconning Twp

628

686

12

1,326

-58

47.36%

51.73%

-4.37%

Portsmouth Twp

912

1,089

17

2,018

-177

45.19%

53.96%

-8.77%

Williams Twp

1,446

1,240

27

2,713

206

53.30%

45.71%

7.59%

Total

177,805

152,128

3,803

333,736

25677

53.28%

45.58%

7.69%

2002 was a year of what could have been if the idiot pundits (excluding myself since I actually thought Posthumus could win) didn’t concede the race before it began. Posthumus won the district, which is surprising for a state level candidate. It was close. He won with 50.07% of the vote, and it was strictly on lower Michigan votes. The UP’s historical democrat leanings are still strong in state level races.

2002 Election

Posthumus

Granholm

3rd Party

Total

Diff.

GOP%

Dem%

Diff%

Alcona

2,387

2,165

35

4,587

222

52.04%

47.20%

4.84%

Alger

1,623

1,855

49

3,527

-232

46.02%

52.59%

-6.58%

Alpena

4,722

6,391

110

11,223

-1669

42.07%

56.95%

-14.87%

Antrim

5,576

3,752

129

9,457

1824

58.96%

39.67%

19.29%

Arenac

2,611

2,821

74

5,506

-210

47.42%

51.24%

-3.81%

Baraga

1,170

1,263

47

2,480

-93

47.18%

50.93%

-3.75%

Bay

0

0

-

0

#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!

Charlevoix

5,608

3,836

173

9,617

1772

58.31%

39.89%

18.43%

Cheboygan

5,268

4,107

112

9,487

1161

55.53%

43.29%

12.24%

Chippewa

5,357

5,428

113

10,898

-71

49.16%

49.81%

-0.65%

Crawford

2,566

2,233

93

4,892

333

52.45%

45.65%

6.81%

Delta

6,590

6,862

172

13,624

-272

48.37%

50.37%

-2.00%

Dickinson

4,358

3,882

113

8,353

476

52.17%

46.47%

5.70%

Emmet

7,111

4,330

212

11,653

2781

61.02%

37.16%

23.87%

Gladwin

4,569

4,350

112

9,031

219

50.59%

48.17%

2.42%

Gogebic

2,308

3,292

86

5,686

-984

40.59%

57.90%

-17.31%

Houghton

5,119

5,026

205

10,350

93

49.46%

48.56%

0.90%

Iosco

4,817

5,031

151

9,999

-214

48.17%

50.32%

-2.14%

Iron

2,017

2,429

93

4,539

-412

44.44%

53.51%

-9.08%

Keweenaw

545

482

21

1,048

63

52.00%

45.99%

6.01%

Luce

889

1,016

39

1,944

-127

45.73%

52.26%

-6.53%

Mackinac

2,425

2,206

35

4,666

219

51.97%

47.28%

4.69%

Marquette

8,906

12,779

465

22,150

-3873

40.21%

57.69%

-17.49%

Menominee

3,576

3,335

124

7,035

241

50.83%

47.41%

3.43%

Montmorency

2,231

1,722

57

4,010

509

55.64%

42.94%

12.69%

Ogemaw

3,689

3,727

107

7,523

-38

49.04%

49.54%

-0.51%

Ontonagon

1,334

1,301

54

2,689

33

49.61%

48.38%

1.23%

Oscoda

1,669

1,242

58

2,969

427

56.21%

41.83%

14.38%

Otsego

4,982

3,346

145

8,473

1636

58.80%

39.49%

19.31%

Presque Isle

2,862

2,717

64

5,643

145

50.72%

48.15%

2.57%

Schoolcraft

1,468

1,707

49

3,224

-239

45.53%

52.95%

-7.41%

Bay County:

City of Auburn

441

372

5

818

69

53.91%

45.48%

8.44%

Beaver Twp

547

472

22

1,041

75

52.55%

45.34%

7.20%

Fraser Twp

522

657

15

1,194

-135

43.72%

55.03%

-11.31%

Garfield Twp

302

311

9

622

-9

48.55%

50.00%

-1.45%

Gibson Twp

187

169

5

361

18

51.80%

46.81%

4.99%

Kawkawlin Twp

914

963

22

1,899

-49

48.13%

50.71%

-2.58%

City of Midland (1)

9

5

0

14

4

64.29%

35.71%

28.57%

Monitor Twp (3)

394

270

2

666

124

59.16%

40.54%

18.62%

Monitor Twp (5)

321

293

5

619

28

51.86%

47.33%

4.52%

Mount Forest Twp

242

215

13

470

27

51.49%

45.74%

5.74%

City of Pinconning

176

240

10

426

-64

41.31%

56.34%

-15.02%

Pinconning Twp

428

437

11

876

-9

48.86%

49.89%

-1.03%

Portsmouth Twp

617

774

21

1,412

-157

43.70%

54.82%

-11.12%

Williams Twp

964

810

32

1,806

154

53.38%

44.85%

8.53%

Total

114,417

110,621

3,469

228,507

3796

50.07%

48.41%

1.66%

2000 was the start of a change in Northern Michigan from it’s democrat swing in the 1990’s. Bush won the UP, which I’m not sure his dad was able to even do. I think the UP may have gone to Dukakis, although I’m not certain.

2000 Election

Bush

Gore

3rd Party

Total

Diff.

GOP%

Dem%

Diff%

Alcona

3,152

2,696

149

5,997

456

52.56%

44.96%

7.60%

Alger

2,142

2,071

153

4,366

71

49.06%

47.43%

1.63%

Alpena

6,769

7,053

310

14,132

-284

47.90%

49.91%

-2.01%

Antrim

6,780

4,329

438

11,547

2451

58.72%

37.49%

21.23%

Arenac

3,421

3,685

161

7,267

-264

47.08%

50.71%

-3.63%

Baraga

1,836

1,400

157

3,393

436

54.11%

41.26%

12.85%

Bay

0

0

-

0

#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!

Charlevoix

7,018

4,958

511

12,487

2060

56.20%

39.71%

16.50%

Cheboygan

6,815

5,484

318

12,617

1331

54.01%

43.47%

10.55%

Chippewa

7,526

6,370

458

14,354

1156

52.43%

44.38%

8.05%

Crawford

3,345

2,790

221

6,356

555

52.63%

43.90%

8.73%

Delta

8,871

7,970

472

17,313

901

51.24%

46.03%

5.20%

Dickinson

6,932

5,533

367

12,832

1399

54.02%

43.12%

10.90%

Emmet

8,602

5,451

658

14,711

3151

58.47%

37.05%

21.42%

Gladwin

5,743

5,573

313

11,629

170

49.39%

47.92%

1.46%

Gogebic

3,929

4,066

344

8,339

-137

47.12%

48.76%

-1.64%

Houghton

7,895

5,688

633

14,216

2207

55.54%

40.01%

15.52%

Iosco

6,345

6,505

372

13,222

-160

47.99%

49.20%

-1.21%

Iron

2,967

3,014

207

6,188

-47

47.95%

48.71%

-0.76%

Keweenaw

740

540

63

1,343

200

55.10%

40.21%

14.89%

Luce

1480

956

100

2,536

524

58.36%

37.70%

20.66%

Mackinac

3,272

2,533

165

5,970

739

54.81%

42.43%

12.38%

Marquette

12,577

15,503

1099

29,179

-2926

43.10%

53.13%

-10.03%

Menominee

5,529

4,597

308

10,434

932

52.99%

44.06%

8.93%

Montmorency

2,750

2,139

120

5,009

611

54.90%

42.70%

12.20%

Ogemaw

4,706

4,896

253

9,855

-190

47.75%

49.68%

-1.93%

Ontonagon

2,472

1,514

165

4,151

958

59.55%

36.47%

23.08%

Oscoda

2,207

1,677

108

3,992

530

55.29%

42.01%

13.28%

Otsego

6,108

4,034

363

10,505

2074

58.14%

38.40%

19.74%

Presque Isle

3,660

3,242

178

7,080

418

51.69%

45.79%

5.90%

Schoolcraft

2,088

2,036

77

4,201

52

49.70%

48.46%

1.24%

Bay County:

City of Auburn

551

488

26

1,065

63

51.74%

45.82%

5.92%

Beaver Twp

664

618

35

1,317

46

50.42%

46.92%

3.49%

Fraser Twp

698

837

34

1,569

-139

44.49%

53.35%

-8.86%

Garfield Twp

347

431

17

795

-84

43.65%

54.21%

-10.57%

Gibson Twp

232

236

9

477

-4

48.64%

49.48%

-0.84%

Kawkawlin Twp

1,104

1,194

52

2,350

-90

46.98%

50.81%

-3.83%

City of Midland (1)

17

31

0

48

-14

35.42%

64.58%

-29.17%

Monitor Twp (3)

413

332

4

749

81

55.14%

44.33%

10.81%

Monitor Twp (5)

373

362

17

752

11

49.60%

48.14%

1.46%

Mount Forest Twp

308

305

14

627

3

49.12%

48.64%

0.48%

City of Pinconning

239

323

10

572

-84

41.78%

56.47%

-14.69%

Pinconning Twp

541

566

25

1,132

-25

47.79%

50.00%

-2.21%

Portsmouth Twp

749

1,036

45

1,830

-287

40.93%

56.61%

-15.68%

Williams Twp

1,181

1,034

46

2,261

147

52.23%

45.73%

6.50%

Total

155,094

136,096

9,575

300,765

18998

51.57%

45.25%

6.32%

The farm club here is vast because of the geography, with democrats having a big advantage with Northern Michigan districts.

St. Senate 37 – Antrim, Charlevoix, Cheboygan, Chippewa, Emmet, Grand Traverse, Mackinac, and Presque Isle counties. Grand Traverse County is not in the 1st district, and I believe Jason Allen is from that county.

St Senate 37th

GOP

Dem

06 – Allen/Unger

63,479

43,476

106,955

20003

59.35%

40.65%

18.70%

02 – Allen/Estes

53,490

35,852

89,342

17638

59.87%

40.13%

19.74%

St. Senate 36 – Alcona, Alpena, Crawford, Gladwin, Iosco, Midland, Montmorency, Ogemaw, and Otsego counties. Tony Stamas is from Midland which is not in the 1st District, but one of the anchors of the 4th district. Andy Neumann, Stamas’s opponent from 02, is from Alpena and in the district. He’s rumored to be running again for this district in 2010.

St Senate 35th

GOP

Dem

06 – Stamas/Reid

65,079

39,757

18

104,854

25322

62.07%

37.92%

24.15%

02 – Stamas/Neumann

46,511

44,487

90,998

2024

51.11%

48.89%

2.22%

St. Senate 31 – Arenac, Bay, Huron, Sanilac, and Tuscola counties. Only Arenac, and part of Bay County is in the district. Jim Barcia I believe is from Bay City, but he represented part of the 1st in his old 5th District.

St Senate 31st

GOP

Dem

06 – Nuncio/Barcia

23,569

78,923

1441

103,933

-55354

22.68%

75.94%

-53.26%

02 – Green/Barcia

35,486

54,352

89,838

-18866

39.50%

60.50%

-21.00%

St Rep 110 – Baraga, Gogebic, Houghton, Iron, Keweenaw, and Ontonagon Counties. Powell Township in Marquette County is also in this district. A similar district was close in 2000, but it has been solid democrat since. I’m not sure it has gone Republican since the pre-mining days. It’s winnable and went for Bush twice, but only in a real good year at a state rep level. This is still Joe Mack country.

St Rep 110th

GOP

Dem

3rd Party

Total

Diff.

GOP%

Dem%

Diff%

08 – Larson/Lahti

11,302

26,995

38,297

-15693

29.51%

70.49%

-40.98%

06 – Schmidt/Lahti

10,357

19,361

820

30,538

-9004

33.92%

63.40%

-29.48%

04 – Ashcraft/Brown

9,845

26,754

2607

39,206

-16909

25.11%

68.24%

-43.13%

02 – Fay/Brown

7,812

18,544

26,356

-10732

29.64%

70.36%

-40.72%

St Rep 109th – Alger, Luce, most of Marquette County, and Schoolcraft County – This is the most democrat district in the UP. John Kerry won this district which is anchored by Marquette, the largest city and county in the 1st district (as Bay City is in the 5th).

St Rep 109th

GOP

Dem

3rd Party

Total

Diff.

GOP%

Dem%

Diff%

08 – Takalo/Lindberg

12,444

26,766

2870

42,080

-14322

29.57%

63.61%

-34.04%

06 – Westrom/Lindberg

10,508

21,428

31,936

-10920

32.90%

67.10%

-34.19%

04 – Kaltenbach/Adamini

13,760

28,081

41,841

-14321

32.89%

67.11%

-34.23%

02 – Hafeman/Adamini

8,954

20,396

29,350

-11442

30.51%

69.49%

-38.98%

St. Rep 108th – Delta, Dickinson, and Menominee Counties. This district was democrat until Casperson won it in 2002 in an upset over Laurie Stupak (Bart’s wife). Bush won it twice (as he did the Green Bay area in Wisconsin), but it returned to its roots in 2008 at the state level. Obama also did well in the “Wisconsin” part of the UP, as he did in Green Bay, despite being a “FIB.” I’ll say the I in “FIB” stands for Illinois, and I’ll let you figure out the F and B portions…

St Rep 108th

GOP

Dem

3rd Party

Total

Diff.

GOP%

Dem%

Diff%

08 – Falcon/Nerat

18,350

23,800

42,150

-5450

43.53%

56.47%

-12.93%

06 – Casperson/Nerat

17,817

14,298

32,115

3519

55.48%

44.52%

10.96%

04 – Casperson/Baldinetti

29,727

13,635

43,362

16092

68.56%

31.44%

37.11%

02 – Casperson/Stupak

15,009

13,982

28,991

1027

51.77%

48.23%

3.54%

St. Rep 107th – Koehler and Tuscarora Townships in Cheboygan County, Chippewa, Emmet, and Mackinac Counties. This district was GOP until Gary McDowell upset Walt North in 2004. North was a former State Senator who made a fatal vote as he stepped down. He was the deciding vote against legalizing the hunting of mourning doves. The NRA gave him an F rating (surprised me since he voted for CCW) over than one vote and endorsed McDowell (which I didn’t have a problem with at all – SAFR also endorsed McDowell, but gave North a mixed rating). McDowell is now termed out, and this should be a good pickup opportunity for the GOP, as long as they don’t run someone unacceptable to the NRA, Right to Life, or Farm Bureau.

This is democrat leaning with Alpena anchoring the district, although it is competitive when it is open. Andy Neumann is termed out in 2010. He ran for State Senate in 2002 and lost a close race, and came back when his old seat opened up in 2008. Matt Gillard had the seat for 3 terms in between the Neumann stints.

St Rep 106th

GOP

Dem

3rd Party

Total

Diff.

GOP%

Dem%

Diff%

08 – Pettalia/Neumann

19,620

23,089

1353

44,062

-3469

44.53%

52.40%

-7.87%

06 – Viegelahn/Gillard

12,846

23,703

36,549

-10857

35.15%

64.85%

-29.71%

04 – Fortier/Gillard

18,498

25,834

44,332

-7336

41.73%

58.27%

-16.55%

02 – Wyman/Gillard

15,984

16,450

32,434

-466

49.28%

50.72%

-1.44%

St. Rep 105th – Antrim, Charlevoix, Most of Cheboygan, and Otsego Counties.

The 105th is a solid GOP district, although primaries there can be vicious. (2002, and probably 2010) This seat opens up again in 2010, and several people are likely running for it.

St Rep 105th

GOP

Dem

3rd Party

Total

Diff.

GOP%

Dem%

Diff%

08 – Elsenheimer/Saltonstall

30,568

18,455

1354

50,377

12113

60.68%

36.63%

24.04%

06 – Elsenheimer/Bauer

26,291

14,635

40,926

11656

64.24%

35.76%

28.48%

04 – Elsenheimer/McKinney

30,765

18,644

49,409

12121

62.27%

37.73%

24.53%

02 – Bradstreet/Webster

21,609

12,203

33,812

9406

63.91%

36.09%

27.82%

St Rep 103rd – Iosco, Missaukee, Ogemaw, and Roscommon counties.

It’s a swing district if someone not named Sheltrown is not running. Missaukee is usually the 2nd most GOP county in the state. The other three are competitive but have some democrat leanings. Ogemaw County is probably the most democrat of the bunch. Sheltrown is termed out, although it may be kept in the family if there’s another family member running. Joel Sheltrown took over for his brother Dale Sheltrown. Missaukee and Roscommon Counties are not in the 1st district. Ogemaw and Iosco Counties are.

This seat flipped once after its creation in 2002. It went Democrat as an open seat, but flipped to the GOP in 2004 after the democrat voted against a gay marriage ban. It’s a social conservative district, although quite populist and has some democrat leanings. Clare is not in the 1st district, although the rest of the district is in the 1st. Tim Moore is in Clare County, so he’s in the 4th district. This will be a tossup seat in 2010 as Moore is termed out.

The 96th District is the 2nd most democrat district that has any portion in the 1st district. Most of this district is in the 5th district, including Bay City. Auburn, the Midland portion, two precincts of Monitor Township, Portsmouth, and Williams Townships are in the 1st. This district is the other district in the 1st that voted for John Kerry. Jeff Mayes, the incumbent, is from Bangor Township which is in the 5th District. This is not a liberal district, but it is a democrat district. Pro-life and pro-gun democrats are very common here.

St Rep 96th

GOP

Dem

3rd Party

Total

Diff.

GOP%

Dem%

Diff%

08 – Rau/Mayes

13,950

32,208

46,158

-18258

30.22%

69.78%

-39.56%

06 – Schaefer/Mayes

9,858

27,199

37,057

-17341

26.60%

73.40%

-46.80%

04 – Goss/Mayes

16,790

29,305

46,095

-12515

36.42%

63.58%

-27.15%

02 – Begick/Rivet

12,032

21,126

33,158

-9094

36.29%

63.71%

-27.43%

The 2010 election is Stupak’s to lose. Despite it being competitive on paper, Stupak is possibly the toughest candidate to knock out in Michigan. He beat a good candidate in Tom Casperson with 65%. Under the current boundaries, he won with 68%, 66%, and 69% all against Don Hooper, a frequent candidate. The old boundaries were more republican, but he survived 94 with 57%, and 98 (against another strong candidate in Michelle McManus) with 59%. Chuck Yob gave Stupak his roughest semi-recent numbers holding him to 58% in 2000 when the gun issue hurt Stupak. Stupak hasn’t had a bad vote on guns since 2001. That flank is well protected.

Despite Cook having this a R+3 seat, Stupak consistently wins by over a 2-1 margin. I’d give the pickup chances here at about 10%. 1% of that is Stupak not running again. 5% is angry democrats going after him on the life issue (R pickup if that happens.) The other 4% is if there is an unexpected blunder. The only way Stupak goes down is if he gets a “gone national” reputation like Tom Daschle did with the democrats. It could happen, but I’m not going to put money on it. That aside, I believe in competing in all districts, and this one needs a good fight. I don’t believe in conceding any race. Stupak has 18 years of votes. They can be looked at, scrutinized, and thrown back in his face.

One important aspect here is geography. Certain areas are an advantage to run from. Stupak being from the Green Bay section of the UP is an advantage as it is a swing part of the district. Yoopers in general will vote for yoopers over trolls. On the same note, trolls don’t have a problem voting for yoopers. Probably the best chance at picking up an open seat here is running a strong yooper against a democrat with a Bay City, Charlevoix, Harbor Springs, or Petoskey address. Bay City is “Big City” and the other two areas have reputations for money. The other strategy would be to try and take the competitive northern lower portions by bigger than normal numbers. Bush actually won Alpena County, as well as Ogemaw and Iosco counties. Against someone like Stupak, this would be the better strategy as Stupak is a proven commodity in the U.P. With Stupak retiring, it’s best to run a yooper, hopefully against a troll.

I think Saltonstall’s chances are slim with her outspokenly pro-abortion views, and her Charlevoix address which will hurt her chances not just in the UP, but in the inland lower peninsula as well. I doubt she’ll be the nominee however, and expect the dems to run someone stronger.Gary McDowell and Rich Brown I think are their best two shots. For the GOP, I think Tom Casperson is the best shot, although Benishek may surprise people.