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Tuesday, April 22, 2014

Showing the flag

In the old days, when its dominance was threatened, an
imperial power would send a warship to shoot a few shells across the bows of any
threatening competitor, and that would be that. Nowadays it's a bit more
subtle. In order to show their displeasure with Russia president Putin's
annexation of the Crimea and currently interferance in eastern Ukraine, the West
is using sanctions and military maneuvers, the dance of the
generals.

Thus NATO has moved some of its assets up towards the
former "Iron Curtain" and the US is holding joint military exercises with its EU
ally Romania. It is unlikely that Putin is concerned by these military
messages. After all Romania and Poland are now part of the EU. But, Moldova
and Ukraine are not part of Europe and that is what Putin sees as a threat. He
will do almost anything to prevent the eastern border of the EU from moving
further eastwards into what he perceives as his area of influence. He is not so
much resurrecting the USSR as trying to regain the old Russian Empire. Since
the current eastern border of the EU stops at Belarus and Moldova, these are the
next countries that are no doubt on Putin's little list.

But, first, must come Ukraine, and Putin has moved his
troops up to the border of Ukraine. The recent incident at Slavyansk where
three supposedly pro-Russian militiamen guarding a checkpoint were killed, has
all the earmarks of a set-up. In the middle of the night a supposedly Ukrainian
nationalist group attacked the pro-Russian guards, and as well as killing three
set several vehicles on fire. The news reporters happened to be there. What a
perfect excuse for Putin to send in his troops to protect the pro-Russian
militias from Ukrainian "terrorists."

Then there is the pro-Russian enclave of Transnistria,
that has declared its independence from Moldova. Moldova was originally a part
of Romania called Bessarabia, that was taken over by Russia in the 19th
century. When the USSR collapsed, Moldova declared its independence, although
it was prevented from rejoining Romania. But, the mainly Russian speaking
people tothe east across the Dniester river refused to become part of Moldova.
They formed a pro-Russian strip between Moldova and Ukraine, that no doubt Putin
has his eyes on. If he can annex Transnistria, he can in effect surround
Ukraine, from the west as well as the east. Any Russian general worth his salt
will be whispering "Pridnestrovie" in Putin's ear, what the Russians call
Transnistria. And if Putin decides to move into Transnistria, after a
referendum of course, what can the West do to prevent him. It's a chess game in
which Putin owns the board.