Average generation time for a block (solo) 2 years, 131 days (can vary greatly depending on your luck)

Will you wait ~2-3 years to MAYBE get a block worth about $15,000 right now?

You'll make a lot more in a pool in that time frame.

How is that possible?

The math doesn't add up.

You'll make more in that time frame if you don't hit but less than if you hit because pool operator takes a cut.

Have you seen the difficulty graph for the past 1 year? If you start mining now with some miniscule hashrate you will eek out a small amount on a pool and you will continue to get less and less each month. You will also have a less and less chance of finding a block as each difficulty period passes by. So last December your chance of finding a block with a given amount of hashrate was 20X as high (since difficulty is 20x as high). In an additional 2 years figure difficulty goes up maybe 20x more making it even more unlikely you wil find a block.

The pool fees are at most 5% and miniscule compared to a 20x increase in difficulty. Also in 2 years the block halving will occur and then you will only get 12.5BTC.

I have an Antminer U2 on my works laptop, so I only really mine while I'm at work. I am with Slushs and in all honesty, it will be a year before I even make the .01 minimum payout. What is that £3? I might as well be solo mining now as I'm never going to see any real return on my pool mining.

Then again I have never really done any lotteries as I never liked their odds.