04 September 2012

Indications of the Orioles Winning Over 90 Games

People tend to have a tendency to repeat some variation of Bill Parcels epic quote: you are what your record says you are. I think more accurately it is that you were what your record says you were. Wins and losses are one way to measure the talent of a team. They are certainly the most definitive way to describe what happened, but for various reasons (i.e., non-skill based succession of events) it is not a great predictor for the future. Though it is not bad.

In a previous post about six weeks ago, I simply illustrated that first half run differential was a slightly better indicator of second half record than it was to simply look at the first half record. The primary issues of using either are basically that an inflated record can result in a team trying to play out their good hand by adding complementary pieces, increasing their talent level. First half run differential can also be misleading because a good differential combined with an underperforming record could result in a team selling off their assets.

As we enter September, something new could be happening. Many teams, such as one like the Twins or Astros, see this time as a chance to look at their younger players and get a read on them against MLB competition. These teams still want to win, but they often put out a less than their best lineup. As a result, September can be a pretty peculiar month.

For today, I will be assuming that a team's record to date is an accurate representation of their performance. I will be trying to determine how many more wins the Orioles will add to their current 75. To do this, I used Bill James' log5 method. We get the following table:

Games Left

Win Pct.

ExWins

Blue Jays

6

0.448

3.7

Rays

6

0.548

3.1

Red Sox

6

0.456

3.6

Yankees

4

0.567

2

A's

3

0.567

1.5

Mariners

3

0.485

1.7

Log5 puts the Orioles at a 15.6-12.4 record for the remainder of the season. This put the expectation for the team to finish with 90 (91 if you round up) wins. Last year, Boston would have been the second wild card and they had 90 wins. In other words, Baltimore is in a strong position. Within the AL East, the Yankees have largely the same slate with divisional opponents along with the A's and Twins as their out of division series. The Rays have it a bit harder as their out of division foes include the Rangers and White Sox which are both playoff contending teams.

6 comments:

Bret
said...

nOver a 28 game sample projecting things are useless. The Yankees have an easier schedule (one fewer Rays, one more Jays, Oakland at home instead of road and Min instead of Seattle with King Felix in one game). If the O's don't take 3 of 4 it is highly unlikely they are going to win the division, a split would be a victory for NY. TB on the other hand has a very tough schedule aside from O's/Yanks (3 Texas, 4 at Chicago). Basically all O's fans need to become Rangers fans because they can singlehandedly knock out the WC competitors (7 Oakland, 6 more with LA, 3 with TB). If they play well in those games at least the O's will almost certainly be in postseason, even if it is for a game.

28 games is an awfully small sample size but now is the time to pay close attention. Unfortunately one of those Mariners games is Felix and the O's have no off days before or during the west coast trip. Games like tonight are critical, have to take care of business in games they are supposed to win where the other team has checked out. Oakland has been so hot, maybe they will be cool by the time the O's get in and maybe Felix will be given extra rest or something.

"What hurts the Rays is that their path is a little more difficult in that both of their out-of-division opponents in September are strong contenders (White Sox and Rangers), while the Yankees and Orioles have soft series against the Twins and Mariners."

The Mariners are not a soft team, and the O's and Yankees also have to play the Athletics.

The only team who catches a break is the Yankees when they play the Twins. They also play the Red Sox to end the season which helps them a bit.

Don't we have an off day on the 10th, 3 days before the west coast trip? That's gonna be a tough trip against two teams who are still playing hard. I'll be interested to see if the redsox can turn it back on, and if so to what extend. Right now they look like they might not win more than 5 games for the rest of the year, which would make the al east race all the more interesting and help those teams in the WC.

Contact Camden Depot

We look forward to your questions as well as any suggestions you may have for us.

Additionally, we are always looking for new contributors, so if you want to write for the Depot then e-mail us with an example column that you think fits the tone of the site.

Contributors

Jon Shepherd - Founder/Editor@CamdenDepotStarted Camden Depot in the summer of 2007. By day, a toxicologist and by night a baseball analyst. His work is largely located on this site, but may pop up over at places like ESPN or Baseball Prospectus.

Matt Kremnitzer - Assistant Editor@mattkremnitzerMatt joined Camden Depot in early 2013. His work has been featured on ESPN SweetSpot and MASNsports.com.

Matthew Cassidy - WriterMatt joined Camden Depot before Spring Training in 2017. His love of music is surpassed only by his obsessions with food (unhealthy) and baseball statistics (totally healthy).

Patrick Dougherty - Writer@pjd0014Patrick joined Camden Depot in the fall of 2015, following two years writing for Baltimore Sports & Life. He is interested in data analysis and forecasting, and cultivates those skills with analysis aimed at improving the performance of the Orioles (should they ever listen).

Nate Delong - Writer@OriolesPGNate created and wrote for Orioles Proving Ground prior to joining Camden Depot in the middle of 2013. His baseball resume includes working as a scorer for Baseball Info Solutions and as a Video Intern for the Baltimore Orioles. His actual resume is much less interesting.

Avi Miller - Writer@AviMillerAvi is a SABR enthusiast who is interested in data-driven analysis. His worked has previously appeared on the Baltimore Sports Report.

Matt Perez - Writer@FanOfLaundryMatt joined Camden Depot after the 2013 season. He is a data analyst/programmer in his day job and uses those skills to write about the Orioles and other baseball related topics.

Joe Reisel - WriterJoe has followed the Norfolk Tides now for 20 seasons. He currently serves as a Tides GameDay datacaster for milb.com and as a scorer for Baseball Info Solutions (BIS). He is computer programmer/analyst by day.

Ryan Romano - Writer@triple_r_Ryan writes about the Orioles on Camden Depot and is the editor at Beyond the Box Score. He previously wrote on Birds Watcher and on Camden Chat that one time

Joe Wantz - WriterJoe is a baseball and Orioles fanatic. In his spare time, he got his PhD in political science and works in data and analytics in Washington DC.