Where are all the jobs?

We hear a lot about the growth of jobs in Australia’s cities, but in this article, Keenan shows that’s only part of the story.

Presenting a more nuanced story about the location and growth of jobs between the 2011 and 2016 Census periods, this is a cautionary tale for anyone analysing how jobs growth in any part of Australia has changed over time. As always, experience and familiarity with the underlying data are critical to ensuring the whole story is told.

A closer look at employment data

When the second round of data from the 2016 Census was released recently, we were able to take a closer look at how employment trends have changed between 2011 and 2016.

Glenn, our Census expert, has already noted some preliminary findings from the data. However, in light of some recent articles about the growth of jobs in certain areas, I thought I would dig a bit deeper to explore some of these changes in greater detail (at smaller, more localised geographies), to counter some of the misstatements that have been made recently.

Some people have been reporting job change figures for regions by comparing the ABS Census numbers for 2016 with those reported for the 2011 Census. Unfortunately, this is a fundamentally flawed process that often results in misleading conclusions.

Why?

In 2011, a large number of people’s workplaces (621,676 to be exact) were unable to be coded to a Local Government Area (LGA) or region. In 2016, the ABS allocated those people based on an imputation methodology devised by the NSW Bureau of Transport Statistics, where locations are coded to a business based on associated data.

So, if you are simply comparing 2016 imputed data with 2011 non-imputed data you will get quite inaccurate results (probably leading you to think jobs in your region or LGA have exploded in the last five years!).

This is part of the reason we always recommend using Census data to explore worker characteristic trends (such as qualifications, income and method of travel to work), but NIEIR data, modelled using ABS Labour Force Survey data, for headline employment numbers.

Since it has been available, we have had 2011 (now 2016) Census data that was imputed to show jobs (by destination zone – a geography commonly used to analyse place-of-work data) freely available on our economic profiles under ‘employment locations’.

However, the imputed data does offer a more accurate picture of jobs changes between 2011 and 2016 at a regional or small area level because it’s comparing like with like (note: this comparison betweeen different time periods is not available on our sites, as inconsistencies in geographic boundaries make it likely that incorrect conclusions will be drawn).

So, what does it show?

Jobs change by region

As expected, jobs growth is being led by the large metropolitan areas with the 5 biggest capital cities adding just over half a million jobs.

However, there is a lot of variance between them. Jobs numbers in Greater Melbourne and Greater Sydney grew by around 10% in the five-year period. In contrast, Greater Adelaide grew by only 1.4%, below most regional areas.

While it appears that the non-metro areas are growing much more slowly, it should be acknowledged that the main working-age population (15-65 years) in metro areas grew by 9% between 2011 and 2016, compared to 3.1% in non-metro areas. So, a larger jobs growth should be expected.

ABS Census Imputed Jobs change by Region, 2011-2016

Region

2011 Census imputed Jobs

2016 Census imputed Jobs

2011 – 2016 Change (Numbers)

2011 – 2016 % Change

Greater Sydney

1,998,983

2,209,296

210,313

10.5%

Greater Melbourne

1,868,693

2,046,163

177,470

9.5%

Greater Brisbane

980,222

1,037,901

57,679

5.9%

Greater Adelaide

552,433

560,316

7,883

1.4%

Greater Perth

796,641

850,158

53,517

6.7%

Total Big 5 Metros

6,196,972

6,703,834

506,862

8.2%

Rest of NSW

980,268

1,005,430

25,162

2.6%

Rest of Qld

949,056

993,925

44,869

4.7%

Rest of SA

151,414

148,131

(3,283)

-2.2%

Rest of Victoria

548,725

564,984

16,259

3.0%

Rest of WA

254,770

260,115

5,345

2.1%

Total Big 5 States Non-Metro

2,884,233

2,972,585

88,352

3.1%

ACT

210,695

220,645

9,950

4.7%

Greater Hobart

97,564

99,361

1,797

1.8%

Rest of Tas.

106,688

106,813

125

0.1%

Greater Darwin

60,887

72,120

11,233

18.4%

Rest of NT

37,773

33,860

(3,913)

-10.4%

Other (territories and no fixed address)

411,014

474,621

63,607

15.5%

Total Australia

10,058,329

10,683,842

625, 513

6.2%

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Census of Population and Housing 2011 and 2016.

Inner city agglomeration benefits

Looking more closely at the largest metropolises we can explore how inner-city jobs are growing (it seems to be a popular topic). You could use SA3 geographies. However, they are difficult to compare as the area they encompass for each city is quite different. For example, Brisbane Inner is only 13.5km2 compared to Perth City at a whopping 43.5km2.

So, to generate better comparisons, I have compiled SA2 level data. For Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane it is necessary to combine some SA2s to get a roughly comparative geography. The dominance of the Sydney central city area is obvious, and the jobs growth in both central Sydney and Melbourne is far above that experienced in other cities.

In contrast, the inner areas of the other big cities appear to have hardly grown much at all or in the case of Perth even declined. The structural transition in the resources states appears to have impacted professional services jobs in their CBDs.

(It should be noted that while all areas contain parkland, Adelaide SA2 contains 5km2 or more of parkland and therefore actually has higher job densities in the built-up area than it might appear.)

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Census of Population and Housing 2011 and 2016.

A good exercise would be to generate a definition of central cities based on combining Destination Zones (smaller than SA2s) and removing parkland/water from geographies (using ABS mesh block definitions). However, how do you define where central areas finish? Sydney’s business area effectively stretches across the harbour to North Sydney and beyond. Melbourne obviously includes Docklands and Southbank but also stretches north to Parkville and south down St Kilda road. Brisbane contains a number of high job density areas along the riverside in Milton.

Is it all about the central cities?

Clearly, not all inner-city areas are growing as strongly as others.

Looking at jobs growth across all SA2s in Australia, we can see again that inner Sydney and Melbourne created a large number of jobs during the intercensal period. However, out of the 25 SA2s with the largest jobs growth (number), only 8 could be classified as inner city or inner suburbs. Most of the jobs growth in Greater Perth and Greater Brisbane actually occurred outside the inner city.

While the jobs density may not be as intense in these other locations, it shows that other employment nodes such as Tech/Knowledge clusters (Macquarie Park, Parkville, Murdoch), Logistics/warehouse centres (Truganina), secondary metropolitan service centres (Parramatta, Chatswood, Dandenong), Regional cities (Geelong) and mining/resource areas (Ashburton, Weddell) all have a role to play. Many of them also don’t benefit from the scale of infrastructure investment (historical and current) that has gone into inner cities.

Top 25 SA2s for Imputed Jobs change (number), 2011-2016

Region

(2016 SA2 Name)

State

Region Type

2011 Census imputed Jobs

2016 Census imputed Jobs

2011 – 2016 Change (Numbers)

2011 – 2016 % Change

Sydney – Haymarket – The Rocks

NSW

Inner City

270,223

320,829

50,606

19%

Docklands

Victoria

Inner City

34,858

57,555

24,160

72%

Melbourne

Victoria

Inner City

201,734

221,136

19,402

10%

Ashburton (WA)

WA

Remote

12,055

23,540

11,485

95%

Macquarie Park – Marsfield

NSW

Middle Suburb

41,481

48,394

6,913

17%

Weddell

NT

Fringe

898

7,484

6,586

733%

Murdoch – Kardinya

WA

Middle Suburb

7,632

13,618

5,986

78%

Dandenong

Victoria

Outer Suburb

59,901

65,688

5,787

10%

Parkville

Victoria

Inner City

23,049

28,207

5,158

22%

Pyrmont – Ultimo

NSW

Inner City

31,974

36,831

4,857

15%

North Lakes – Mango Hill

Qld

Fringe & Peri-Urban

5,553

10,311

4,758

86%

Baulkham Hills (West) – Bella Vista

NSW

Outer Suburb

18,912

23,584

4,672

24%

Surry Hills

NSW

Inner City

25,164

29,818

4,654

18%

Truganina

Victoria

Fringe & Peri-Urban

2,817

7,207

4,390

156%

Richmond (Vic.)

Victoria

Inner Suburb

32,472

36,837

4,365

13%

Ormeau – Yatala

Qld

Fringe/Outer Suburb

14,342

18,438

4,096

29%

Geelong

Victoria

Regional City

27,306

31,099

3,778

14%

Chatswood (East) – Artarmon

NSW

Middle Suburb

23,931

27,655

3,724

16%

Newstead – Bowen Hills

Qld

Inner City

16,643

20,347

3,704

22%

Madeley – Darch – Landsdale

WA

Outer Suburb

14,764

18,357

3,593

24%

Parramatta – Rosehill

NSW

Middle Suburb

46,819

50,227

3,408

7%

Deer Park – Derrimut

Victoria

Fringe/Outer Suburb

9,627

12,934

3,307

34%

Concord West – North Strathfield

NSW

Middle Suburb

16,587

19,823

3,236

20%

Rockbank – Mount Cottrell

Victoria

Fringe & Peri-Urban

2,616

5,740

3,124

119%

Clayton

Victoria

Middle Suburb

31,244

34,203

2,959

9%

Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Census of Population and Housing 2011 and 2016. ABS Census 2011 Destination Zone job counts have been matched to 2016 SA2 boundaries. Some job allocation has been applied to best fit Destination Zone boundary changes between 2011 and 2016.

If you’re working in Docklands, Ashburton, North Lakes or especially if you’re in Weddell in the Northern Territory, we would love to hear from you! How has the massive growth in jobs in your area affected you and the people living there?

Keenan is an economic development specialist who has worked extensively analysing and developing economic programs, strategies and policies in the public sector. Keenan works with our local government clients to help them explore and understand how their regions are changing over time to help them make better decisions and create evidence-based strategies related to local economic development. Keenan enjoys running, travelling and is soon to be a father, eagerly awaiting the challenges and delights it brings.

4 Responses

No one lives in Weddell NT. That is where the $34 Billion Impex Gas plant is located, or more specifically its located next door at Bladin Point. You’ll find that a lot of that growth has created an explosion for population in the Litchfield Council, with the concentration around the suburb of Coolalinga. You’ll also find the Independent local member for the NT seat of Nelson is fiercly opposed to the changes from turning the area from rural into suburban and keeps getting voted back in on that platform, but the NT Politicians do love development as it creates jobs and they’ll ignore the local NIMBY concerns of people in Litchfield in order to create more urban sprawl.

As for Weddell, it was originally canvassed as a new greenfield project for suburban development, but with the Impex jobs slowing down, that has been relegated back for another decade, plus politics plays in as well.

Hi Nicholas,
Thanks for the comment. I was aware that’s where the Inpex Ichthys LNG Project is. The SA2 Weddell includes Bladin Point. Always interesting to here the local politics at play in places and it will be good to explore what happens to the economy once the plant transitions into production phase. They already started shedding jobs last year and I assume this will continue.
K

I read your blog with interest as I’m setting up a web site ‘Moving to the Gold Coast’ which will provide population and other data about the various suburbs and regions of the Gold Coast for people interested in moving to the Gold Coast. I don’t have training in statistics but I do have a PhD in philosophy and I worked for the Commonwealth Employment Service back in the 80’s where I developed a good understanding of census and other data concerning occupation and industry of employment.

I follow the general line of your argument – caution must be exercised when comparing data etc – and I was interested to see if the Gold Coast would figure in your blog and this is where I got a little confused. The only Gold Coast suburb mentioned in Ormeau-Yatala to which you attribute a 29% (4,096) increase in 2016 from 2011 levels. From the research I had already done, this struck me as a little odd. Ormeau-Yatala in part of what I call ‘The Northern Corridor’ of the Gold Coast, linking as it does, the old Gold Coast city with Greater Brisbane. This area is one of the big growth areas of Queensland and Australia, converting old agricultural land into new urban sub-divisions. My estimate of the population growth of this area (Ormeau-Yatala, Upper Coomera-Willow Vale, Coomera, Pimpana, and Jacobs Well) is 45% (55,200-80,300) The largest suburb of these is Upper Coomera with a 2016 population of 31,200 (up from 24,000 in 2011) making it the second largest suburb on the Gold Coast and only marginally less than Southport, the traditional population centre of the Gold Coast. I expect Upper Coomera will pass Southport in a year or two.

But this is all about raw population growth. What puzzled me about you blog was that intuitively, you would expect Upper Coomera to have more labour force growth than Ormeau (which only has a 2016 population of 20,000). So when I looked at labour force figures for Upper Coomera there was an increase from 11,116 to 14,871, an increase of 3,700. Further when I checked the Ormeau figures, the increase was only from 7,800 to 9,500, which is nowhere near your quoted figures of a 4,096 increase 2011-2016. I wondered if I had misread the SA2 figures so I went back to the ABS website and confirmed that the id.com employment figures were correct.

I’m guessing that there is something else going on here but if there is it would be useful for me to know what it is before I start preparing labour force figures for my site. So far I have only compiled population profile figures – five year profiles, service age groups, etc.

Hi Mark, thanks for your response and interest.
I think you may have mistakenly compared labour force figures to jobs change. My blog was about jobs/local workforce in a particular location (where people work), not the resident workforce (where working people live). You are right in suggesting Upper Coomera-Willow Vale would have a higher resident work force (slightly different to labour force which includes number of unemployed) as its population is greater. However, in terms of actual jobs generated, Ormeau-Yatala SA2 has over 3 times the amount of jobs found in Upper Coomera-Willow Vale. Most of these are within the industrial estates in Yatala and Stapylton which continue to expand and attain new tenants. You can see jobs/local workers mapped by location on the Gold Coast here http://economy.id.com.au/gold-coast/employment-locations
Hope this clarifies the difference. Thanks, K.

DISCLAIMER: While all due care has been taken to ensure that the content of this website is accurate and current, there may be errors or omissions in it and no legal responsibility is accepted for the information and opinions in this website.
Please view our Privacy Policy , Terms of use and Legal Notices