Q+A-What is Israel's "clear red line" on Iran?

September 27, 2012|Reuters

By Louis Charbonneau

UNITED NATIONS, Sept 27 (Reuters) - Israeli Prime MinisterBenjamin Netanyahu said on Thursday the world must set a "clearred line" that Tehran must not cross in its nuclear program ifIran is to avoid military action against its atomic facilities.

He appeared to suggest that a decision on whether or notmilitary force could be used against Iran's nuclear facilitiesmay come by the spring of 2013 at the earliest if Iran continuesenriching uranium.

Following are questions and answers about Netanyahu's speechto the 193-nation U.N. General Assembly.

WHAT IS THE BACKGROUND?

Israel, the United States, the European Union and theirallies say Iran is amassing the capability to produce a nuclearbomb, an allegation the Islamic Republic denies. Tehran is underU.N. and Western sanctions for refusing to halt uraniumenrichment, a process that can produce fuel for power plants orbombs.

Netanyahu has presented Iran as a mortal threat to theJewish state, though not all members of the Israeli governmentand military share that assessment. Iran says its nuclearambitions are limited to the peaceful generation of medicalisotopes and electricity.

Israel has urged the U.N. Security Council to imposecrippling sanctions on Iran, including an oil embargo, butRussia and China, which hold vetoes on the 15-nation body, areopposed to imposing such draconian measures on Iran.

Britain, France, Germany, the United States, Russia andChina have been negotiating with Iran without success in oneform or another for nearly a decade to persuade it to halt itsenrichment program in exchange for political and economicincentives.

Tehran continues to expand its enrichment program and theUnited States and Israel have both refused to rule out the useof force against Iran's nuclear program. U.S. President BarackObama told the General Assembly on Tuesday that Washington woulddo what it takes to prevent Tehran from getting the bomb.

WHAT IS ISRAEL'S "RED LINE"?

Netanyahu said that Iran must not be allowed to amass enoughenriched uranium for a single weapon. Using a cartoon-likedrawing of a bomb with a fuse, he said Iran's nuclear programhad to pass through three stages before it would be capable ofproducing a bomb.

The first stage is when Iran produces enough low enricheduranium. The second is when it produces enough "medium enriched"uranium. The third and final stage would be when Iran hasproduced enough "high enriched uranium for the first bomb."

He said the red line must be drawn "before Iran completesthe second stage of nuclear enrichment necessary to make abomb." The timing for that, at Iran's current rate ofenrichment, would be by the spring or summer of 2013, he said.

That would suggest that a decision on whether to usemilitary force against Iranian nuclear sites would have to bemade by the spring or summer of 2013 as well.

At that point, Netanyahu said, Iran would be a "few monthsaway or a few weeks away from amassing enough enriched uraniumto make a nuclear weapon."

HOW MUCH ENRICHED URANIUM DO YOU NEED FOR A BOMB?

According to the U.N. International Atomic Energy Agency(IAEA), a "significant quantity" - enough for a bomb - ofuranium enriched to a purity level of 90 percent is 25 kg (55pounds).

That would mean 25 kg of uranium that is 90 percenturanium-235, which nuclear expert Jeffrey Lewis has described onhis blog Arms Control Wonk as "the stuff that goes boom."

Iran has been enriching uranium to 20 percent uranium-235purity, a level it says is required for medical isotopes butwhich also is closer to bomb-fuel grade than the uranium Iranused to enrich. According to an August report by the IAEA, Iranhas stockpiled 91.4 kg of the 20 percent material.

Some experts say that Iran would need 200 to 250 kg of suchmaterial for a weapon, though other experts suggest less mightbe needed. Iran could potentially reach that threshold soon byproducing roughly 15 kg a month, a rate that could be speeded upif it activates new enrichment centrifuges.

Netanyahu was not entirely clear on this point, but heappeared to suggest that if Iran were to acquire enough 20percent enriched uranium needed for a single bomb, it would havecrossed his proposed "red line" and could face military action.

Even if Iran acquired 200-250 kg of 20 percent enricheduranium, it would still need to enrich it to bomb grade level of90 percent or higher to make it usable in a weapon.

HAS ISRAEL ATTACKED NUCLEAR SITES BEFORE?

Yes, twice. In 1981, Israel launched air strikes againstIraq's Osirak nuclear reactor that was under construction nearBaghdad after the Israelis determined that the Iraqis weregetting ready to load nuclear fuel into it. The raid destroyedthe reactor.

In 2007, Israel attacked a site in Syria that Israeliofficials said was a nuclear plant under construction with NorthKorean assistance. They said the plant was demolished.

Attacking Iran's nuclear program, diplomats and analystssay, would be much more challenging than Iraq's or Syria'sbecause Iranian facilities are spread around dozens of sitesacross Iran's vast territory, some of them underground.

Netanyahu said Iran's uranium plants were visible andvulnerable. "These enrichment facilities are the only nuclearinstallations that we can definitely see and credibly target,"he said.