Melky’s Second Chance

The Toronto Blue Jays will soon announce officially the signing of Melky Cabrera to a 2-year deal for $16M. In a week that also saw the Jays complete the biggest transaction in franchise history, the controversy is flowing around General Manager Alex Anthopoulos.

Toronto has made a commitment to pay the former Yankee, Brave, Royal, and Giant the largest free agent contract of Anthopoulos’ tenure. And they’ve chosen a player whose 2012 MVP-calibre season was derailed by a controversy that has ruined the reputations of Rafael Palmeiro, Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, and Barry Bonds.

A LITTLE PED HISTORY & FUTURE

Not a lot of players have been able to come back from a positive PED test.

Last year, Ryan Braun won the MVP award, and then nearly had it stripped after testing positive for a banned substance. It turned out the “chain of custody” on his sample had been compromised, and several doubts were cast upon the test result. To this day it remains the only successful appeal of a positive performance enhancing drug test.

Yankees’ stars Alex Rodriguez and Andy Pettitte have both admitted to their PED use, apologized to their fellow players, and fans, and returned to the field to varying degrees of success.

Roger Clemens is rumoured to be making a comeback attempt at age 50, having pitched for the Sugar Land Skeeters of the independent Atlantic League this past summer. He might be signed by the new look Astros for 2013, and could repair his image enough to convince the Baseball Writers Association of America to induct him into the Hall of Fame eventually.

CAN MELKY CABRERA RESTORE HIS TATTERED CHARACTER?

What made Cabrera’s August 15, 2012 suspension even worse was what came after. It was then revealed that he had (with help, we can be sure) fabricated a website for a fictional product that he claimed to have ingested, unknowingly containing the banned testosterone booster, in an attempt to clear his name. The hoax was discovered rather quickly, and Melky and his compadres were in even bigger trouble

My positive test was the result of my use of a substance I should not have used. I am deeply sorry for my mistake and I apologize to my teammates, to the San Francisco Giants organization and to the fans for letting them down.

Before he was removed by MLB, Cabrera was having a tremendous season. He led all National League hitters with a .346 batting average, and was slugging .516 with a .906 OPS, and .390 OBP. For those who care for the Sabrmetric stats, you’ll appreciate his wOBA of .387, wRC+ of 149, and fWAR of 4.6. Please bear in mind that Cabrera did all this in only 501 plate appearances of 113 games.

Some PEDs are thought to do absolutely nothing to actually improve a player’s skill, but rather create other benefits that make a player more effective. Some of these substances simply make an athlete recover from injury or fatigue faster and more completely. Others can increase or improve the efficiency of both fast (Type II A and B) and slow (Type I) muscle twitch fibres. If the latter doesn’t help a baseball player pull the trigger while at-bat, I don’t know what would.

But did the player in question actually benefit from the use of the testosterone booster he is reported to have taken? And if yes, by how much? And more importantly, will the fact that he’ll be unlikely to use such substances in the future effect his play in 2013 and beyond? Do we even know how long Cabrera has been using these PEDs? Was his burst of great play in 2011 also in question? These are all questions we may never be able to answer.

If Cabrera falls back to his pre-2011 play, then we might be getting a fairly decent indication of how much his recent play relied on the unfair boost. And anything that approaches above replacement level play will likely be followed by rumours of continued PED use.

DOES HE DESERVE A SECOND CHANCE?

Baseball is something I enjoy very much, and the reputation of the game is something I hold dear. However, I’m not so wrapped up in this that I can’t see that it’s still just a game, rather irrelevant when compared to the big picture, when put up against the important matters of justice, politics, and societal advancement. Baseball might be a multi-billion dollar industry, but it’s still just baseball.

I am a firm believer in second chances for nearly any transgression. I do think that Melky Cabrera deserves a shot to prove himself to be both a decent human being, and a talented baseball player. He made a mistake, was caught and punished, and now it’s time for him to do what all humans with even an ounce of strength always do. It’s time for Melky to pick up the pieces, make a concerted effort to improve himself, and move forward.

Punishing him endlessly serves no purpose other than to further the selfish agendas of angry people who are always going to be angry.

Please don’t misunderstand me. PED use is unacceptable, and I am not defending the actions of Cabrera or any of the others who have been judged as guilty. These drugs are not healthy for the users, and send exactly the wrong message to our youth. Should baseball players even be role models? That’s up for debate. But we can’t argue that baseball players are role models, and therefor ought to make a reasonable effort to show it.

A GOOD DEAL?

Toronto-born sports genius Dan Shulman seems to think the Jays are on the right track.

Had Cabrera not been caught for his PED use, or had he not used them in the first place and still had his fantastic 2012 season, he would be signing a very different contract than this. He would have had a large number of suitors willing to ink the switch-hitting outfielder to a 5+ year deal, possibly in the $75M or more range. Bringing him on-board for such a short term, and at a comparatively meagre annual salary, is most certainly a coup.

There is a fair amount of risk though. There will be a public relations blowback against the Jays. Some fans won’t want to attend games where a “cheater” is patrolling left field. Some won’t want to bring their children, or even have to explain why this is such a big deal. These people are probably in the minority, and would almost certainly be swayed back to a winning team in the end.

I do think that the moral and ethical issues are at the heart of this matter. Not only do I think that Cabrera deserves his second chance, but I think this is an excellent opportunity for children to learn the concepts of forgiveness, patience, and measured judgement. It’s probably worthy of note that a lot of adults ought to learn these lessons as well.

If Cabrera fails to repeat his work from last year, it’s not a comparatively large amount of money to crawl out from underneath. If he backslides into further PED use, the team might even have a clause in the contract freeing them from having to pay the salary. Anthopoulos has always been considered to be risk-averse, so it’s likely he’s taken all of this (and more) into account before ink hit paper.

PREDICTION?

National Post and fellow Canada.com columnist Bruce Arthur wants you to get excited about the Jays in 2013.

I’d like to be the clever guy that tells you what Cabrera’s output will be for next season, but I just can’t do that with any level of certitude. Stats guru Bill James has already released his predictions for 2013, and in them we see Melky’s slash line is expected to be .295/.348/.432/.780 with a wOBA of .338. These numbers are all down from last year, but they’re not much more than a very educated guess.

No matter what happens, we can be sure that the first few months of the season will certainly be very interesting. Can these recent moves really generate enough momentum for Toronto to succeed in the vaunted AL East?

Toronto-based baseball blogger; lover of wheat beer and great vodka; fervent Secular Humanist; that guy you meet at a party who seems boorish and loud, then maybe he redeems himself, but eventually you... read more see your first impression was accurate. Follow me on Twitter: @LoRichTimes.View author's profile