Friday, January 7, 2011

Palin in Perspective

A Sarah Palin Presidential bid would certainly make history- in all of the wrong ways for Republicans. PPP has polled the 2012 Presidential contest in a dozen states over the last two months and in 9 of those Palin would lose by the biggest margin of any Republican Presidential nominee since Barry Goldwater...or even further back. In a few of those states you have to go back to the days of Harry Truman and Franklin Roosevelt to find a GOP nominee whose margin of defeat was as great as Palin's current polling deficit.

Here's how it breaks down-

States where Palin's current deficit would result in the biggest loss for a Republican candidate since Barry Goldwater and 1964:

-Nevada where she trails by 13-Pennsylvania where she trails by 15-Ohio where she trails by 7-Wisconsin where she trails by 14 (John McCain lost by a similar margin)-Minnesota where she trails by 18-Michigan where she trails by 21

Barry Goldwater did comparatively well in the South (at least to how he was doing in the rest of the country) so in a few states that Obama flipped to the blue column in 2008 you have to go back even further to find an election where the Republican nominee did as bad as Palin is right now:

-Her 14 point deficit in Florida would be the worst for a Republican since Dewey didn't defeat Truman in 1948.-Her identical 14 point deficit in North Carolina would also be the worst for a Republican in the state since 1948.-And the big winner is...Virginia...where Palin's 11 point deficit would be the worst for a Republican in the state since FDR's final reelection in 1944.

In the other three states we've polled Palin does worse than John McCain in 2008, but at least outperforms either George Bush or Bob Dole's performance against Bill Clinton in the 90s. Her 2 point lead in Montana would be the worst for a Republican since Clinton won the state in 1992. And although she trails by 3 points in Missouri and 29 points in Massachusetts, Clinton won those states by larger margins in 1996.

In any event Democrats should be rooting like hell for Palin's nomination.

21 comments:

Terrific. Another Palin restrospective by the DailyKOS pollster. Good grief. Today, an independent pollster reported that Gov Palin polls 51 - 41 favorability among New Hampshire Independents. Yes, that's correct: Independents, not Republicans. If your polls are to be believed, polling 51% favorability among independents, a Northeast State, doesn't make sense.

I say let's wait until 2012 before making sense of polls taken of Palin by a pollster affiliated with DailyKOS for goodness sakes. After all, it is in your interest, and your patrons interest, to jigger your samples to show her in as unfavorable light as possible.

The poll showing Palin's favorability at 51% is hardly an independent poll. It was conducted by Magellan Strategies which a REPUBLICAN polling firm.

But that is so typical of right wingers. Any poll that produces results they dislike is a "fabrication". Any poll that produces results that support their opinions is "independent" and objective.

smoothjazz, let me be clear. We liberals do not need to "jigger" anything. Unlike the ranters about "death panels" and "Muslim usurper", we leftists rely on FACTS to form our opinions.

And the FACT is that the pollster you claim as independent, most certainly is not. And here is the source to back up my claim. It is the website of the pollster who conducted the poll you cite.

ON THE VERY FIRST PAGE, THEY PROUDLY PROCLAIM THEIR AFFILIATION WITH THE GOP.

Your claims about the pollster being independent are simply not credible.

Here is the proof. As i said, we liberals use FACTS.

http://www.magellanstrategies.com/

The Magellan team is a deep and experienced group of individuals with career backgrounds working for the Republican National Committee, political campaigns, state parties, survey research firms, government affairs firms, and conservative grassroots organizations.

and the bottom line is that regardless of how "favorable" she is viewed by these likely GOP voters, when it comes down to which candidate would actually receive a vote, Palin trails Romney by 23 points in the Magellan New Hampshire poll.

A "favorable" opinions does not translate into votes. There are lots of people about whom I have a favorable opinion that I do not want anywhere near the Oval office.

and by the way, Palin trails by 32 points among INDEPENDENT women in that very same poll, when it comes to the important question of who gets the vote.

You do understand that New Hampshire Republicans are completely different from Republicans across the country? Of course Romney leads in a couple New England states. He's not going anywhere outside of them and a couple of heavily-Mormon states.

Besides, these poll results aren't even consistent. In what world is Palin polling better against Obama in Nevada than she is in North Carolina and Florida. How does that make any sense. How would she be leading in Montana or even close in Missouri if she's really down 14 in Florida and North Carolina.

"How would she be leading in Montana or even close in Missouri if she's really down 14 in Florida and North Carolina."

MT has always been redder and MO is becoming redder than either FL or NC. I think there might be some western appeal to Palin with some people in states like MT and NV, since she's from a western frontier state herself.

I'm rooting! I'm rooting! It's my absolute dream that Sarah Palin becomes the GOP nominee... I kind of see it slipping away though. I think it's becoming too obvious even to the idiots that make up the core of the Republican Party that she's completely unelectable.

Anonymous:"Of course Romney leads in a couple New England states. He's not going anywhere outside of them and a couple of heavily-Mormon states."

Actually, PPP has most recently shown Romney leading all other Republican contenders in California, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Florida, Michigan, Connecticut, Massachusetts, and New Hampshire.

That's more than just a handful of New England states and a couple of heavily Mormon states.

(BTW, that puts Romney about 80 delegates ahead of anyone else in the Republican primary thus far by my estimate.)

If there's anyone not likely to go anywhere outside of a particular region, it's probably Huckabee (the region being the south).

Get used to the fact that Obama, one of the greatest Presidents ever, will be here FOUR MORE YEARS. Deal with it. Republicans destroyed this country and continue to do so. Sorry, we get 8 years to fix your damage and that's not going to change.

Arizona and New Mexico were polls from eight months ago. If I recall, he was tied with Huckabee in Michigan while Huckabee led in Florida. If I recall, his lead in CT was from a sample of 180 GOP voters. The samples for California was extremely small as well.

You may want to plug the numbers again using current polling.

By the way, does your model take into account that most of the states that this pollster has polled are states won by Barack Obama? 17 of the 23 states that this pollster has polled are states won by Obama. So if Romney isn't even winning in the states that Obama won, I don't see how your model can show him leading.