iFOREX»News» Dow edged up late Thu on reports of 'magic therapy for COVID-19 coupled with Trump's plan for a gradual reopening of the U.S. economy; Dow slips early Fri from 'magic' drug Remdesivir high

Dow edged up late Thu on reports of 'magic therapy for COVID-19 coupled with Trump's plan for a gradual reopening of the U.S. economy; Dow slips early Fri from 'magic' drug Remdesivir high

Dow slips early U.S. Friday from the COVID-19 magic drug Remdesivir high as the maker Gilead downplayed the clinical success report and said actual data will be assessed at April end

Dow also undercuts as Trump’s plan for the 3-phased reopening of the U.S. economy is open-ended, having no specific dates and very few important states could reopen on 1st May or immediately

Even if few U.S. states will reopen early, that will be an only incremental step, not monumental as COVID-19 curve may not flatten visibly before 15th May

The NY Governor Cuomo made it clear that unless there is a clear flattening of the COVID-19 curve, he can’t reopen the state

The U.S. stock market (Dow) edged up Thu in late hours boost on reports of ‘magic’ therapy (Remdesivir) for COVID-19 coupled with Trump’s plan for a gradual reopening of the U.S. economy. Some tech stocks like Netflix also helped Nasdaq/S&P-500 as people are now watching streaming entertainment more while staying in the home amid lingering corona lockdown.

On early Asian Thursday, Dow Future surged over +550 points on hopes of a partial reopening of the locked-down countries on both sides of the Atlantic. But it slips again almost -600 points from the session high after another set of horrible U.S. jobless claims of over 5.2M, taking the COVID-19 lockdown toll to over 22M.

Although such a terrible unemployment claim was in the expected line, almost 15% of the U.S. workforce (assuming 150M) is now out of work and the situation may not improve much before June-July’20 until the U.S. economy reopens fully. But even after June, there will be various COVID-19 mitigation measures like strict adherence to existing social distancing protocols and pro-active COVID-19 tests, which may affect the overall economic recovery as-well-as employment.

On mid-Thursday, Dow tumbled almost -300 points after the NY Governor Cuomo announced the NY shutdown extension to at least May 15. The NY and other East Coast states extended the shutdown of nonessential businesses to 15th May.

Cuomo said in support of his decision to extend NY lockdown by another 2-week to 15th May:

---Here are just the facts.The hospitalization rate is down from 18,000 to 17,000 mark. That is good news. Total hospitalizations down. You talk about the flattening of the curve, the apex, how long is it flat? When does it start to curve? We don't know but this is a good sign today. If you look the net change in hospitalizations it's down more signify than it has been. So that's positive news. Three-day average which again is more accurate than the day to day counts - I'm a little skeptical about the day to day counts. This is all a new reporting system but the three-day average is more reliable.

ICU admissions number is also down significantly for the first time. So that's good news. Intubation is down and that's really good news because the intubations ultimately lead to the worst news - 80 percent roughly of people get intubated never come off the ventilator.

The number of new people who are diagnosed with COVID, about 2,000 still yesterday-- So when you see the reduction in rates remember what we're talking about. We're talking about a reduction in increases. You still have 2,000 people every day about who is walking into a hospital for the first time or who are being diagnosed with COVID for the first time and 2,000 are still a lot of people.

But the good news is it means we can control the virus. We can control the spread and we did not know for sure that we could do that. We speculated that we could do it but we didn't know. So now we know that we can control this disease.

The bad news is 2,000 people walked into a hospital yesterday for the first time with the disease and the worst news is 600 people died yesterday from the disease. That is still continuing at a really tragic, tragic rate. And of those deaths 577 in hospitals, 29 in nursing homes--- We've been watching the nursing homes because nursing homes in many ways are ground zero for this situation. Last night the number in nursing homes was relatively low.

Everyone asked the same two questions. When is it over and how do we get there? How do we start to make our way from here to there? When is it over? When is it finally over? It's over when you have a vaccine and that's 12 months to 18 months. We've said to the FDA any way we can be helpful in the testing of that vaccine. How do we accelerate that? How do we expedite it? New York is ready, willing and able to do that with the FDA.

Maybe there's a medical treatment between now and the vaccine - that would be great but those are unknowns and it's out of our bailiwick. We are working with a lot of companies that are working on treatments. We're testing treatments in our hospitals but that's a pure medical research and development function which is beyond us.

At the same time, how do we un-pause New York? New York is now on pause. How do we un-pause it? First, do no harm. Don't let that infection rate go up to the best of your ability. Don't lose the progress that you have made. Second, now go back that we have some stability and we can actually work with the health care system which we had on overdrive for many, many weeks and we had increased capacity as you remember. Every hospital had to increase the capacity by 50 percent. I mean just think about that, 50 percent more beds, staffing those beds during this horrific period.

Now we have a chance to be more intelligent frankly about handling our health care system, testing and tracing, testing and tracing, testing and tracing, and we need the federal government to work with us on that and then phasing an economic return to the quote-unquote new normal---Right? Those are all activities that are going on at the same time and that's our plan to quote-unquote un-pause New York.

You stopped everything. How do you now restart that machine in a coordinated way that doesn't drive up the infection rate? That's the balance that we're trying to strike on un-pausing and having businesses open. That is a nuanced question. There's no light switch. It's not all businesses go back tomorrow. It's, what businesses, what do they do, what risks do they pose, and what changes can they make in their business to make them safer? This is not just the government deciding. It's the government deciding with private businesses who now have to take a look at this new normal, this new reality, and tell us how they think they can adjust to it.

One of our questions and evaluations is how essential is that business service? You have to start somewhere. Right now we have the economy working with what are quote-unquote essential workers. That's why the grocery store is open. That's where public transit is running. All right, so we want to start to bring the economy back. Move up one tranche on how you define essential with what's the next level of essential businesses. Are there certain businesses that are inherently safer or can be safer? And then let's talk about how we reopen them and where we reopen them. And these are all questions that we have to work through on a case by case basis.

But there is a matrix and the matrix is how important is the business to society, how essential service, and how risky is that business from a rate of infection. Obviously the more essential a business, the lower the risk, the more they are a priority. Then how do you do it? You do it in phases of priority and then you phase it up the way we phrase it down which is by percentages.

This is going to be an ongoing process over the coming weeks that we're working through with the other states. But the what, the how, the when, looking at how important that business is and what the risk that business poses, and then do it in coordination with our other states because this is really a regional issue and it should be addressed on that basis. Coordinating with the other states doesn't mean we'll always be in lockstep but we'll talk through everything first and hopefully, we're not doing something that's contradictory to another state at a minimum, and so far so good on that exercise and then the analysis is ongoing.

But it's not going to be all about what the government does. What the private sector now has to think about: what they do and how they do it and how they can do it differently in this new normal.

Reimagine your workplace and we learned a lot through this situation. People work from home. Well, how many people can continue to work from home and the business still works? How do you socially distance in the workplace? Can you socially distance in your workplace? What are your new normal procedures and practices? How do you think you're going to get workers back and forth and what precautions would you take? In the workplace how would people work and where would they sit or where they stand and how do you do it without conference meetings and how do you do it without gatherings?

How are you going to interact with the public in a way that keeps the public safe? We're talking about businesses that pose a lower risk. Tell us how you intend to organize and conduct your business and can you do it in a way that poses a lower risk? What would you do with your workforce to make sure, if an infection happens, we can jump on it quickly? As we're going through all this planning, this is going to be a moment of transformation for society. We paid a very high price for it.How do we learn the lessons so that this new normal is a better New York? There are lessons that we must learn from this because we do need to do things differently or we can do things differently and we can do things better.

Part of the way across that bridge is testing. It is the single best tool to inform decisions and to calibrate all of this. This new testing world is a new frontier for all of us. New York State has been very aggressive about testing. We set a very ambitious goal when we began and I'm happy to say they did it. We've done 500,000 tests in 30 days. That's more than California, Florida, and Michigan combined. This is all about figuring it out first and taking a system, that frankly didn't exist, and creating this testing system and this testing regimen. Five hundred thousand tests in one month that sound great. And it was great. It was a great accomplishment and congratulations to everyone who put it together.

When you think of 500,000 tests in one month and then you compare it to the fact that you have 19 million people in this state, you have 9 million workers, and the 500,000 doesn't sound so big. We have many questions to answer. Where do you test? How do you get the supplies? How do you coordinate the private labs? How do you coordinate the demand going to these private labs? Everybody wants to test. Private sector companies are calling for testing. They're going right to the labs. Everyone is going right to these labs and 50 states are competing and the federal government is buying a product from these labs.

This has to be figured out and it can only be figured out in partnership with the federal government. On top of that, once you go for testing, you have to trace every person who comes up positive. Trace means to investigate. Investigate all those prior contacts and then one contact, you test that person, leads you to another person. The tracing investigators are really assembling an army that does not now exist.I spoke to the White House this morning about it. I understand that this is a problematic area and the federal government's not eager to get involved in testing. I get that, but the plain reality here is we have to do it in partnership with the federal government.

You're talking about supply chains that go back to China. A state does not have the capacity to do that. There's no reason why you would have 50 states each trying to figure this out on their own, competing the federal government, competing with the private sector. So I'm very much looking forward to the federal government's willingness to tackle this, understanding that it will be imperfect at best.

If we work together we can do better than any of us could do alone. That's what this is all about. You're not going to achieve optimum performance. You can't put together this national system with perfection so people are understandably reluctant to get involved. Understanding the risk and understanding that it's never going to be done perfectly - if we work together we can do better and that's what we actually have to accomplish.

We have to strengthen the health care system. Our surge and flex, which is the first time we've ever called upon all these hospitals to work together and coordinate. Every hospital was basically its own enterprise. Then we go back and we say, "Well you all have to work together and coordinate and we're going to help you coordinate." It was the first time that's ever happened. We understand a stockpile as we've never understood before.

We understand about sharing resources as we've never understood before. And we understand about sharing among states and how good people were to New York when we needed it and states stepping up and sending us ventilators and I said New Yorkers don't forget. And New Yorkers are the most generous and most gracious and we'll be there when people need help.

New Jersey is still looking at their curve rising. The wave hasn't crested in New Jersey. They're our neighbors, anything we can do to help; I've told Governor Murphy all he has to do is ask. We're here and we're going to send 100 ventilators to New Jersey.

--- But the key to all of this, the calibration is the infection rate and this gets a little technical, but I need people to really understand this. Why don't you open tomorrow? Because we're afraid the infection rate will go up and everything we've been doing is to slow the infection. Well, how do you track the infection rate? We don't, we don't we don't track infection rates. We see hospitalization rates which are different. A hospitalization rate is a person who got infected and became seriously ill, so they had to go to the hospital. But we don't know how many people have been infected or are getting infected. We only know at this point how many people walk into a hospital, Ok? Or how many people get tested in a nursing home.

If you have advance testing then you'll have a better idea of what percent of your population has actually been exposed. That's what the antibody testing is all about. But the key is as you're making this calibration on the reopening of the economy, as you bringing more people out of their homes, how fast is that virus spreading and how quickly is that infection rate rising, right? Dr. Fauci said early on that this virus spreads, it does it very well and we know that and we've learned that the hard way.

The rate of infection is everything okay, all those early projection models assumed a higher rate of infection, a higher rate of spread. That's why they were calling for so many more hospital beds, many more mortalities. Because they projected a higher rate of spread--- but that has not happened so far. Caveat, so far. We've controlled the beast. We brought the rate of spread down. If their rate of spread actually happened, we would have been in a much, much worse situation and we would have been in a really bad place. I mean their projections were staggering and it didn't happen because we slowed the models.

But remember what they were talking about, CDC which is supposed to be the preeminent source - 160 million to 214 million people infected they were projecting. That was only March 13, that's what the CDC was projecting. You know how many 160 to 240 million are? We only have 328 million people in the country. They were projecting more than half of the population and maybe two thirds of the population infected and that was only a month ago. They were saying 2.4 million people to 21 million people would be hospitalized. You know how many that is? We only have 900,000 hospital beds in the nation. They were saying, by their projection a minimum of twice as many people would need hospital beds as we have hospital beds.

Just imagine that, that was the CDC. The White House Corona Virus Task Force the same thing. White House Corona Virus Task Force was saying 1.5 to 2.2 million deaths, deaths and that was the White House Corona Virus Task Force as of March 31, okay. Worst best case scenario 100,000 to 241,000 with mitigation efforts. March 31 just over two weeks ago. And that's why all of these models said the same thing. They were all believing a higher infection right now, and that's McKinsey and that's Columbia and that's Cornell. That's all of them. That's the Gates funded model. They were all projecting a higher infection rate. We slowed the infection rate by our actions. And that's why we're in a better position today.

Now what does the infection rate mean? And I know this gets a little granular, but people have to understand that if they're going to understand why we need to do what we need to do. The infection rate is how many people does one person infect, okay? How fast is the virus spreading from one person to another? And they talk about Arnot factor. The Arnot factor is the projected spread of the virus, okay?

If one person infects less than one other person, the disease is on the decline. If one person basically infects one more person the rate of spread is stable. I get infected. I infect one. One person infects one. When you have a really situation out of control is one person infects two people or more because then the increase is just exponential, and that's fire through dry grass.This is what they were all trying to project. And this is what we have to control as we start to reopen the economy.

We say we turn the valve on the economy. We open a little bit and we watch the meter, right? What's the meter? The meter is the hospitalization rate or even better the virus spread rate. So, you start to turn that valve. You start to bring people out of their homes. You start to reopen businesses. You see that number going up. Turn the valve back right away. And this is what we're trying to deal with going forward.

And again, nobody has been here before. So, we're trying to figure it out. If one person, if the virus spread increases to the place where one person infects two people. That is an outbreak. If one person is only infecting one other person. That is basically a stable increase. Ideally, one person is infecting less than one person. And that is a decline of the spread of the virus. And that's what we're shooting for.

Just to belabor this one more point. Where you've seen an outbreak epidemic spread, it's when one person is infecting more than one other person. That's when you're out of control. On the Diamond Princess Cruise, the infection rate was one person infects 2.2 additional people. Wuhan was one person was infecting two people or three people. The 1918 pandemic one person was infecting 1.5 to 2.8 on our severe projection. One person was infecting 1.4 to 2.8. On the moderate projection, one person was infecting 1.2 to 1.4, okay?

What we've done because of our mitigation efforts, social distancing, stay home, lock the door. We've brought it to less than 1.Our infections spread rate is 0.9, okay? Wuhan, which really closed down everything and locked it up. Wuhan brought the infection rate down to 0.3, okay? So, that's the range we're talking about.But when you think about that, we're now 0.9. We only have a margin of error of 0.9 to 1.2. 1.2 takes you back to the high projection rate. We're at 0.9. That does not leave you a lot of wiggle room.

So, you're going to start to phase the reopening. You're at 0.9 now after this entire closedown.If you go to 1.2, you're going to have a problem again. So you see how narrow the window is. But, New York Pause has worked. The closedown has worked. That's how we controlled the beast, that's how we got it down to .9. However, we're not there yet. We're just at .9. Again, Wuhan got down to .3. So we have to continue doing what we're doing. I'd like to see that infection rate get down even more.

The New York Pause policies, the closedown policies, will be extended in coordination with other states to May 15. I don't want to project beyond that period. That's about one month. One month is a long time. People need certainly and clarity so they can plan. I need a coordinated action plan with the other states. So, one month, we'll continue the closedown policies. What happens after then? I don't know. We will see depending on what the data shows. What does that mean? Tell me what our infection rate spread is. Is it .9? Is it 1? Is it .7? Tell me what the hospitalization rate is. And then the experts will tell us the best course of conduct based on that data. No political decisions, no emotional decisions. Data and science—we're talking about human lives here.

As relatively simple and possibly annoying as it seems, wearing a mask is one of the best things that we can do. And I understand we're getting a lot of not happy phone calls off what I said yesterday about wearing a mask in public, but I'm sorry it makes people unhappy. I do not consider it a major burden and it really is a simple measure that can save lives. And yes, people say it's a personal intrusion on them, but again remember it's not just about you, right? I have rights, also. And my kids have rights. And your kids have rights. And you have a right for another person to take reasonable safeguards not to get infected. So the masks work. We said in public.

Today, I'm going to include public transportation systems - private transportation carriers, for-hire vehicles, any operator of a public system, an operator of a public carrier and for-hire vehicles must wear a mask at all times. What does this mean? If you get on a bus, you need to wear a mask. If you get in a train, you need to wear a mask. If you get into a private car service—Uber, Lyft—the operator needs to wear a mask.

If you get on a private bus, the operator needs to wear a mask and you need to wear a mask on a private carrier. So, is this inconvenient? Yes, but you're in a closed environment, by definition. You're not socially distancing, by definition. You're the front seat of a car to the back seat of a car. You're one seat in a bus to another seat in a bus. This is a precaution for everyone that I think balances individual liberties with a social conscience. This will go into effect Friday, 8 p.m.

Ultimately what determines the rate of infection? You do. And I do. That's what this all comes down to. As simple as it sounds---It's not about government, it's not about anything else. It's about what people decide to do, and what people have decided to do. They have brought this infection rate down, it's that simple. Nurses, doctors did a phenomenal job. First responders did a phenomenal job. Essential workers did a phenomenal job.

But that rate came down because people changed their behavior. That's what happened. It is about the behavior of our people. It's that simple. It's our behavior, it's our level of discipline, it's how we educate our children, it's how considerate we are of others. What we're willing to do to safeguard others' health in our community. That's what makes all the difference on what we're doing.

And it is the simple things. It's wearing a mask. It's washing your hands. It's the hand sanitizer. It's the social distance. It's making sure your children understand what to do, what not to do. It's all of these simple procedures that seem almost insignificant but on a collective basis make all the difference in the world. And it is making smart choices. I want to get out of the house. I'm going crazy. I need to do this. I need to do this. I know, but be smart. Be smart and engage what you're doing relative to everyone else and relative to the overall goal.

But I will tell you, and I don't know that people truly appreciated this. I don't know that I did. Of all the unique aspects that we have learned going through this, the most positive and the most surprising to me has been how people have responded. The policies that I have communicated are not worth the paper they are printed on. I could stand up here as governor and say we must do this, we must do this, we must do this. These are some of the most life-changing policies government has ever issued. Think about it. This is not government saying, here's your tax rate. Here's age of voting. This is government's saying, stay in your house don't touch another person, wear a mask. I don't even have the ability to enforce these measures on any scale if people said I'm not willing to do it.

So these policies, which are difficult, which are life-changing, they are being implemented by people because people are choosing to do the right thing. It is that simple. And what this is all about, today, the masks on transportation. I trust in New Yorkers. You know, I believe if the facts are presented to the people in this state, New Yorkers will do the right thing. What is the right thing? There's always a right thing. It is the appropriate path that is socially and morally correct. And New Yorkers have a very strong right thing quotient. They know what the right thing is when they hear it.

And all I'm trying to do is give them the facts and the information to explain why I'm suggesting these actions. They decide whether or not to follow them. I can't put a mask on 17 million people. 17 million people will decide whether or not they'll do it. But they have done it because they have the facts, they have the information, they understand the risks, they understand the rewards, they understand the consequences, and what they have done has worked. And it's brought this state forward and it'll bring this nation forward. And that's New Yorkers at their best. And that's because we are New York tough. And because New York tough is more complex than the words suggest. It's smart. It's united. It's disciplined and it's loving. And New Yorkers have proven that, time and time again, every day for 46 days.

Overall,the NY Governor Cuomo is more straight forward than Trump and has no interest to create a false hope among New Yorkers for an early containment of COVID-19. Cuomo clearly said he will need to see a clear flattening of the COVID-19 curve (active cases) before any decision to unlock the NY. Cuomo emphasized that COVID-19 spread/infection rate need to be brought down to 0.3 levels like in Wuhan before thinking of reopening the NY; at present the COVID-19 infection rate is around 0.9 (with a margin of error +/- 0.20).

Thus Cuomo is non-committal about reopening of the NY even after 15th May without seeing a visible flattening of the COVID-19 curve. Although Cuomo said there are signs of flattening/plateauing because of the lockdown and other mitigation measures, it’s still too early to withdraw the same at this point. And Cuomo also clearly said until there is a COVID-19 vaccine, the world will be never the same again and that’s the new normal. Thus Cuomo also argued for a calculated phased opening of the NY economy and later Trump’s actual reopening plan also reflected the same.

The market is concerned that other NY like hotspot states may also extend its lockdown strategy till at least 15th May-approx 8-weeks of time required for a visible flattening of COVID-19 curve (active cases), which is still parabolic. And Trump has to ultimately follow those hotspot/semi-hotspot U.S. states (40%) by extending his national social distancing guidelines by another 2-weeks (15th May).

But Dow Future also recovered to some extent from the Cuomo low on hopes that Trump could reopen the economy at least partially on/after 1st May. Trump tweeted:Major News Conference tonight, the White House at 6:00 P.M. (Eastern), to explain Guidelines for OPENING UP AMERICA AGAIN!

The report suggested that Remdesivir proved effective in most severe cases of the COVID-19 in a Chicago-based hospital conducting clinical trials with most of the patients reportedly recovering within a week of taking the therapy and a few after 10-days. After the U.S. market closed, Dow Future surged over +700 points early Asian Friday on hopes for an early COVID-19 therapy, the world is waiting so anxiously; although it will not develop immunity from the COVID-19 in the community and for that the COVID-19 vaccine is urgently needed.

In any way, Gilead’ Remdesivir successful clinical trial is not a new phenomenon, it was used in the early days of COVID-19 patients in the U.S. as-well-as quite extensively in China, South Korea and other countries in serious patients often with a combination of other anti-AIDS drug and there was significant recovery within 1-2 weeks. Trump is also encouraging Gilead to establish Remdesivir as a proven COVID-19 therapy. But recently, the clinical trial in China was interrupted due to the scarcity of adequate critical COVID-19 patients, willing to take part in the active clinical trials. Gilead originally developed Remdesivir for Ebola virus treatment.

On late Thursday Gilead also warned about the above reported clinical trial result that numbers of patients are not sufficient, but said by April, it can provide data on phase-3 trial; i.e. still now the clinical data is not conclusive. Gilead said in a statement:

Understand the urgent need for a COVID-19 treatment and the resulting interest in data on our investigational antiviral drug Remdesivir. Anecdotal reports do not provide statistical power necessary to determine the safety, efficacy profile of Remdesivir as a treatment for COVID-19. Expect data from phase 3 study in patients with severe covid-19 infection to be available at the end of April.

After Gilead’ clarification, Dow Future also slips early U.S. Friday.

Now from an ongoing clinical trial of COVID-19 therapies and vaccinations to the gradual reopening of the global economy including the U.S. and Europe, on late Thursday, Trump unveiled the much-awaited guidelines for opening up America again. The White House issued an official statement:

BEGINNING THE NEXT PHASE IN THE FIGHT: President Donald J. Trump is continuing the fight against the coronavirus by beginning to reopen the country in a smart and safe way.

The Trump Administration is issuing new guidelines to enable individual States to reopen in phases using a deliberate, data-driven approach. Under these guidelines, States will reopen one step at a time, rather than all at once. The guidelines will empower Governors to tailor the phased reopening to address the situation in their State. Governors can begin phased openings at the Statewide or county-by-county level. These guidelines were developed by the top medical experts from across the Government and are based on verifiable metrics regarding the situation on the ground.

The guidelines set clear benchmarks on new cases, testing, and hospital resources for States to meet to proceed toward a phased reopening. Criteria include a downward trajectory in cases presenting coronavirus-like symptoms or a downward trajectory in positive tests. The criteria also included hospitals having the resources to treat all patients without crisis care and a robust testing program for healthcare workers.

CONTINUING TO PROTECT AMERICANS:

These new guidelines represent the next phase in President Trump’s data-based approach to protecting the health and wellbeing of Americans. Thanks to the commitment and sacrifices of Americans across the country, we have seen critical progress in flattening the curve. A long-term nationwide shutdown is not sustainable and would inflict wide-ranging harm on the health and wellbeing of our citizens. The President’s data-based approach will protect the health and safety of Americans while laying the groundwork for economic growth. These guidelines will allow healthy Americans to safely return to work as conditions allow while protecting seniors and other vulnerable Americans.

LEADING A HISTORIC MOBILIZATION:

President Trump has led a historic mobilization to rapidly ramp up testing and the distribution of medical supplies. President Trump mobilized the full resources of the Government and the private sector to increase the production and distribution of supplies like masks and ventilators. President Trump utilized the Defense Production Act, and the private sector responded, with numerous companies stepping up to shift production to make medical supplies.

The Administration launched Project Air-bridge to airlift supplies to the United States from around the world. The President surged resources and personnel to assist healthcare providers on the frontlines. At the President’s direction, the military and FEMA stood up emergency medical sites around the country, and two naval ships were deployed to assist hospitals. President Trump has led an unprecedented effort to ramp up testing across the country.

The Administration has provided emergency use authority for dozens of new commercial tests. The United States has now conducted more than 3.5 million tests – far more than any other country in the world. The Food and Drug Administration continues to authorize new antibody tests that will be critical as we move toward the next phase. Because of President Trump’s decisive early action, we have been able to get needed medical supplies to our healthcare workers on the frontlines and avoid deadly shortfalls. No American who has needed a ventilator has gone without one. States like New York, California, Washington, and Oregon have even been able to send extra ventilators to other areas that need them.

Trump basically issued the 3-phased guideline for a staggered re-opening of the U.S. without any specific dates. As per reports, Trump told governors that states could begin allowing public activities before/after his target of 1st May as Trump dialed back his earlier confrontation stance with various COVID-19 hotspot states.

The new national guideline doesn’t lay out a specific timeline for relaxing earlier national guidelines on social distancing restrictions. It lists a set of criteria — such as testing and hospital capacity — for each state to use in making their decisions. The guideline includes a sustained decrease in active COVID-19 cases over a 14-day period and a return to pre-crisis conditions in hospitals.

On early Thursday, before releasing the ‘America Open’ guidelines, Trump told state Governors in a concall: You’re going to call your own shots---You’re going to be calling the shots. We’ll be standing right alongside you, and we’re going to get our country open and get it working. People want to get working.

Trump also discussed COVID-19 response and staggered exit out of the lingering lockdown with other G7 leaders. Trump shows the much-needed flexibility in lieu of rigidity on reopening of the COVID-19 locked down U.S. economy and said late Thursday:

We expect fewer deaths than even the most optimistic projections----we are opening up our country; we have to do that—the U.S. economy to boom once the country is opened. New guidelines allow governors to take a phased approach to open their states—the economy will come back in three phases. Governors will be empowered to tailor the approach to their own states; if they need to remain closed we will allow them to do that.

If the virus returns in the fall, these guidelines will ensure the country is up and running and able to put it out quickly The U.S. has excess virus testing capacity and foreign travel, entry limits more important than ever.States that have met the criteria to start phase-1 can begin tomorrow. And 29 States should be able to reopen relatively soon.

On Thursday, the WHO Chief Tedros said in his regular media briefing on COVID-19:

Excellences, colleagues, and friends,

Good morning.

Almost 2 million cases of COVID-19 have now been reported to the WHO from around the world, and more than 123,000 deaths. That’s more than 40,000 more deaths since I spoke to you last week. This is an alarming and tragic increase. At the same time, we’re seeing encouraging signs in some countries that have been the epicenter of the pandemic.

As you know, some countries are now considering lifting social and economic restrictions. This is something we all want - but it must be done extremely carefully. If done too quickly, we risk a resurgence that could be even worse than our present situation.

Our new strategy update outlines six factors for countries as they consider lifting restrictions.

First, that transmission is controlled; Second, that health system capacities are in place to detect, test, isolate and treat every case and trace every contact; Third, that outbreak risks are minimized in special settings like health facilities and nursing homes; Fourth, that preventive measures are in place in workplaces, schools and other places where it’s essential for people to go; Fifth, that importation risks can be managed; And sixth, that communities are fully educated, engaged and empowered to adjust to the “new norm”.

At the same time, the virus is moving into countries and communities where many people live in overcrowded conditions, and physical distancing is nearly impossible. COVID-19 magnifies our existing health inequalities. Governments must consider that for some countries and communities, stay-at-home orders may not be practical, and may even cause unintended harm.

Millions of people around the world must work every day to put food on the table. They cannot stay at home for long periods of time without assistance. We are concerned by some reports in the media about violence erupting as a result of physical distancing restrictions. We’re also concerned about reports of an increasing trend in domestic violence linked to the stay-at-home measures. This must be an area of focus for all countries.

Meanwhile, schools have closed for an estimated 1.4 billion children. This has halted their education, opened some to increased risk of abuse, and deprived many children of their primary source of nutrition and health care.

The pandemic is also disrupting the provision of essential health services and hampering our fight against other priority diseases. Vaccination campaigns for polio have already been put on hold, and other vaccination programs are at risk because of border closures and disruptions to travel. Since Friday there have been four new cases of Ebola in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, after 54 days without a new case.

I would like to use this opportunity, taking you back to COVID, to make a few remarks about wet markets. Reports in some media on the WHO’s view on the re-opening of wet markets in China are not correct.

The World Health Organization's position remains that all sectors affected by COVID-19—including food markets—in China and around the world need to ensure strong regulatory systems, high standards of cleanliness, hygiene and safety once they are in a position to gradually resume normal activities. The WHO maintains that governments should rigorously enforce bans on the sale of wildlife. And they must enforce food safety and hygiene regulations to ensure that food that is sold in markets is safe. The WHO has provided guidance and support to countries on safe and healthy markets, including guidance for food businesses on COVID-19 and on food safety and live markets.

The WHO has been working closely with the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) since the start of the COVID-19 outbreak, to prevent zoonotic diseases in all concerned sectors. The WHO is committed to working with all countries to find tailored solutions to stop transmission, while ensuring essential health services continue and mitigating the social and economic impacts of the pandemic. Only by working together will we bring this pandemic under control. The work has to happen not only at the international and national level but also at the community level.

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On 15th Apr, Tedros said after Trump stopped the WHO funding temporarily:

When the nations of the world met to form the United Nations in 1945, one of the first things they discussed was establishing an organization to protect and promote the health of the world’s people.They expressed that desire in the constitution of WHO, which says that the enjoyment of the highest attainable standard of health is one of the fundamental rights of every human being, without distinction of race, religion, political belief, economic or social condition.That creed remains our vision today.

The United States of America has been a longstanding and generous friend to the WHO, and we hope it will continue to be so. We regret the decision of the President of the United States to order a halt in funding to the World Health Organization. With support from the people and government of the United States, the WHO works to improve the health of many of the world’s poorest and most vulnerable people. The WHO is not only fighting COVID-19. We’re also working to address polio, measles, malaria, Ebola, HIV, tuberculosis, malnutrition, cancer, diabetes, mental health, and many other diseases and conditions. We also work with countries to strengthen health systems and improve access to life-saving health services.

The WHO is reviewing the impact on our work of any withdrawal of U.S. funding and will work with our partners to fill any financial gaps we face and to ensure our work continues uninterrupted. Our commitment to public health, science and to serving all the people of the world without fear or favor remains absolute. Our mission and mandate are to work with all nations equally, without regard to the size of their populations or economies. The COVID-19 does not discriminate between rich nations and poor, large nations and small. It does not discriminate between nationalities, ethnicities or ideologies.

Neither do we. This is a time for all of us to be united in our common struggle against a common threat – a dangerous enemy. When we are divided, the virus exploits the cracks between us. We are committed to serving the world’s people, and to accountability for the resources with which we are entrusted. In due course, WHO’s performance in tackling this pandemic will be reviewed by the WHO’s the Member States and the independent bodies that are in place to ensure transparency and accountability. This is part of the usual process put in place by our Member States. No doubt, areas for improvement will be identified and there will be lessons for all of us to learn.

But for now, our focus – my focus – is on stopping this virus and saving lives. The WHO is grateful to the many nations, organizations, and individuals who have expressed their support and commitment to the WHO in recent days, including their financial commitment. We welcome this demonstration of global solidarity because solidarity is the rule of the game to defeat COVID-19. The WHO is getting on with the job.

We are continuing to study this virus every moment of every day, we are learning from many countries about what works, and we are sharing that information with the world.-----

Yesterday I had the honor of speaking to heads of state and government from the 13 ASEAN-plus-three nations. It was inspiring to hear their experiences and their commitment to working together to secure a shared future. As a result of their experience with SARS and avian influenza, these countries have put in place measures and systems that are now helping them to detect and respond to COVID-19.

We’re also continuing to work with partners all over the world to accelerate research and development. More than 90 countries have joined or have expressed interest in joining the Solidarity Trial, and more than 900 patients have now been enrolled, to evaluate the safety and efficacy of four drugs and drug combinations. Three vaccines have already started clinical trials, more than 70 others are in development, and we’re working with partners to accelerate the development, production, and distribution of vaccines.

In addition to the Solidarity Trial, I am glad to say that WHO has convened groups of clinicians to look at the impact of corticosteroids and other anti-inflammatory drugs on treatment outcomes. Specifically, we are looking at oxygen use and ventilation strategies in patients. Any intervention that reduces the need for ventilation and improves outcomes for critically ill patients is important – especially in low-resource settings, to save lives.

-----The Solidarity Response Fund has now generated almost US$150 million from 240,000 individuals and organizations----We will continue to work with every country and every partner, to serve the people of the world, with a relentless commitment to science, solutions, and solidarity. Since the beginning, the WHO has been fighting the pandemic with every ounce of our soul and spirit. We will continue to do that until the end. That’s our commitment to the whole world.

Overall, the WHO also advised a staggered re-opening of the global economy currently under COVID-19 lockdown with various social distancing and mitigation measures, which will be the new normal post-COVID-19 world until an effective vaccine develops. Tedros/the WHO also sounded conciliatory with Trump/U.S. as $400-500M funding is a very big amount from a single source. But Trump may permanently stop it and in lieu of that will give an appropriate healthcare grant to his friendly countries directly (healthcare diplomacy). And the WHO may get that U.S. funding gap from China and other European nations.

On Friday Trump tweeted on the WHO and tried to blame it for the global pandemic:

Why did the W.H.O? Ignore an email from Taiwanese health officials in late December alerting them to the possibility that CoronaVirus could be transmitted between humans? Why did the W.H.O. make several claims about the CoronaVirus that ere either inaccurate or misleading.... in January and February, as the Virus spread globally? Why did the W.H.O. wait as long as it did to take decisive action? Lanhee Chen, Hoover Institution Fellow

Bottom line:

As highly expected, despite his rhetorics, Trump admin tried to keep a fine balance between health and wealth in its reopening approach. Although the NY has extended its own lockdown by 2-more weeks to 15th May even before Trump’s official guidelines, the market is now not worried about 2-4 weeks of more or less lockdown as it’s now almost clear that the world including U.S., Europe, and even fewer COVID-19 affected Asia would have to forget the H1-2020 and to begin a fresh start from H2-2020 (July); i.e. it’s not a restart of the locked-down economy, but a complete ‘reset’ of the economy.

And the recovery will be ‘U’ (gradual) shaped rather than ‘V’ (rapid) or even ‘W’ (volatile) in 2021 depending on the actual development of any effective COVID-19 vaccine for a normal mask-free world without so much social distancing protocols and other mitigation measures. The world can’t run in continuous tracing-testing of suspected COVID-19.

Technically, whatever may be the narrative, SPX-500 now has to sustain over 2860 for a further rally to 2895*/2960-3050*/3090 and 3115/3135*-3185/3255* in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 2850, SPX-500 may fall to 2795*/2740-2710*/2675 and further 2610/2540-2420/2400 and 2290/2240-2150*/2040 in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Technically, whatever may be the narrative, DJ-30 now has to sustain over 24100 for a further rally to 24300/24600*-25150/25500* and further 25900/26200*-26700/27100* in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 24050-24000, DJ-30 may fall to 23750*/23150-22900/22400* and further 22100/21500*-21200/20300* and 19400/18300-18000*/16900* in the near term (under bear case scenario).

Technically, whatever may be the narrative, NQ-100 now has to sustain above 8825 for a further rally to 9000/9100*-9225/9355* and 9505/9675-9775/9850 in the near term (under bullish case scenario).

On the flip side, sustaining below 8800-8775, NQ-100 may fall to 8700*/8600*-8500/8300* and further 8180/8070*-7900/7600* and 7350/7200*-6800.6600* in the near term (under bear case scenario).

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