Thursday, September 20, 2012

Who starts on Sunday?

Craig Stammen is a candidate to start Sunday's game against the Brewers.

Perhaps the most significant domino effect of yesterday's doubleheader against the Dodgers is the fact the Nationals will need to find a fill-in starter for Sunday's game against the Brewers.

Not wanting to bring back either Jordan Zimmermann or John Lannan on short rest, manager Davey Johnson has said he'll use someone out of his bullpen, almost certainly a right-hander (to combat Milwaukee's right-handed-heavy lineup).

The two prime candidates, then, are Chien-Ming Wang and Craig Stammen, creating a bit of a dilemma for Johnson.

Wang, obviously, has more experience as a starter, both over his career and over this season. But the veteran has been plagued by injuries and until last night hadn't appeared in any game at any level since a 2-inning, Sept. 1 rehab start for Class AA Harrisburg.

Summoned out of the bullpen last night when Lannan couldn't complete the fourth inning, Wang immediately uncorked a run-scoring wild pitch, then gave up a scorched grounder to third base that wound up allowing another run to score (though the run shouldn't have counted after umpire Alan Porter missed the fact Ryan Zimmerman tagged baserunner Adrian Gonzalez before Matt Kemp crossed the plate).

Wang did settle down after that and tossed two more scoreless innings, but was that enough to convince the Nationals he's ready to start a meaningful, late-September game against a potent lineup?

That uncertainty perhaps makes Stammen a stronger candidate to get the assignment. The right-hander has pitched well all season out of the bullpen, whether serving as a long reliever or a setup man. He does have starting experience -- 38 games in the big leagues -- but the last one of them came in 2010.

Johnson hadn't approached Stammen about the possibility as of yesterday afternoon, but when asked, the 28-year-old said he's perfectly willing to accept the challenge.

"I always said I'd do whatever they ask me to do," he said. "So I guess that's part of the job description."

Stammen has thrown 40 or more pitches only twice this year, so there's some question how deep he could go if asked to start.

"In my head, I think I could throw as many as I wanted to throw," he said. "I don't know what my body will feel. I think I could go a while. I definitely would try to get through five (innings). There's no use starting if you can't get through five, just as a personal pride thing."

Don't be surprised if this decision is not made (or if made, not announced) until the outcome of today's, Friday's and Saturday's games is known. Things will look a lot different depending on who might be needed out of the bullpen before Sunday to win a tight game, whether they head into Sunday on a winning roll or are mired in a losing streak, or any manner of other factors. Lannan had a short outing yesterday, so it's not out of the realm of possibility for Davey to start him again on Sunday for a planned short outing before going to the bullpen. As Earl Weaver said and Boswell often repeats, everything changes everything.

"Don't see the logic in stretching Stammen at this point of the season. Use Duke or Perry and hope for the best!"

The logic would be that winning the division is really important, and if a Stammen start gives us the best chance to win the game and improve our chances of winning the division, the benefit outweighs the cost of putting a few extra innings on his arm. A rested Stammen does us no good if we end up in the play-in game and possibly eliminated before we even get to the division series.

peric, yeah, but I'll be insufferable if it's Wang, so there's that. I think it depends on whether Stammen is needed in these three games, and also depends on how close the Division race is at that point. I'd say the chances are high that (1) Stammen will be needed before Sunday and (2) the Sunday game will not be critical to clinching, so, guessing, I would say it's CMW to start with a very quick hook.

Strenuously disagree with NL on the Dodger hot dog (ugh!), but agree about Sunday's starter. If it turns out that Stammen is not needed in the next 3 games, and the Sunday game is crucial, then maybe you start him. But I sure wouldn't keep him out of a critical situation in order to make sure he's rested for Sunday.

The wild pitch aside, CMW wasn't terrible last night. And Duke was fine. I'd go with them and save Stammen for what he's been great at all year long.

I agree, it depends a little on the Div race, but Coolstandings currently shows our odds of winning the div at over 96%. If it stays around there through Sunday, I think Davey gives CMW another shot. They will need to sign a couple of pitchers for next year (#5 & #6 starters). If CMW is willing to sign a minor league contract (perhaps out of loyalty to the Nats for all the patience they have had with him), he is the one pitcher that Nats have far more insight into his actual potential than any other team. It sure seems from the outside like that insight would be screaming "STAY AWAY", but Davey obviously still sees something.

DaveB, even if he pitches well in a couple of starts, I can't see another team offering CMW a major-league contract with his injury history. So if he's not going to retire (and it doesn't seem like he is), he might as well take the minor-league contract with the Nats where he knows the coaches.

According to C&D (Charlie and Dave), Davey was "raving" about Wang's bullpen sessions.

bowdenball, I understand the need to win the division, but asking a guy who hasn't gone long very often this season to do it late in the season could play havoc with Stammen's arm. Will his start be that much better then Duke or (dare I say) Wang that it is worth the risk of injuring him?

MicheleS, thanks for that link. Ken Rosenthal is a good guy except when his mind becomes convoluted with his issues with Scott Boras and it spills over to making comments that are tainted (see Stras comments).

NL ... yes, I agree ... that was my point also, and I think Davey & Mike will still want to see another start to confirm what they see in bullpen sessions before trying to bring him back for yet another year (even at a minor league level).

DaveB and NL, while I agree that CMW is a likely choice for Sunday's starter, I don't think Davey/Rizzo/anyone else are or should be thinking about it as a chance to showcase him, or see what he has for purposes of what kind of contract he might be offered for next year.

It's all about winning the division this year. If they think that going with Stammen is the best choice for reaching that goal, so be it. I happen to think that having Stammen available for the next three games, and the games early next week, is more important. But the call will be made on that basis, not as part of a long range plan for CMW.

I'm not thinking of it as a long range plan for CMW (or Duke). That's coincidental. I'm more thinking that the reason CMW and Duke are on the September roster is for the exact contingency we have--to make a spot start so the rotation can stay on regular rest and the bullpen keeps the roles that have made them successful to-date.

I so want to see the A's beat out the Angels for the WC spot in the AL, and the Cards to beat out the Dodgers in the NL. That would mean that the teams that made the biggest splashes in the free agent market in the off season (Angels and Marlins), along with the team that took on the most big contracts mid-season (Dodgers) all failed to reach the post season. Too sweet.

I read your comments in the previous post analyzing Lannan's 3rd inning. I disagree somewhat; the trouble started when there were 2 outs and no one on. After the hit by Victorino Lannan started pitching ultra conservatively, almost scared. In my view he should have gone after Kemp hard because the worst that can happen is a 2 run homer which is not the end of the world. Once you start putting people on base the problem snowballs and you get a big crooked number put up by the opposition.

In my view this has always been Lannan's problem; he is good enough to get big league hitters out until he starts walking people. He is not able to manage through tough spots because I don't believe he has enough confidence in his own pitches.

Okay, you guys.. You convinced me that I should be rooting for CMW to get the spot start but I will be watching from between the fingers of the hands clasped over my eyes. And rooting to be wrong, wrong, wrong.

I think Davey ran CMW out there last night to see what he had. After a shaky first few batters, CMW settled down a bit, and I thought pitched well enough. I seem to recall when he pitched last year that he continually improved with every outing.

This seems like a no-brainer: go with CMW, and keep Stammen in his current role as a long reliever, so should CMW falter Stammen can do what he has been doing best.

NatsLady is exactly right -- Wang and Duke were added so they could pitch throw-away innings (how Johnson viewed last night's game until the eighth) and in emergencies, which Sunday will be.

Having said that, Wang pitched two plus innings, first time out in two weeks, and his arm/hip have been shaky enough that I think Johnson won't ask Wang to start even if he's only chewing gum and baling wire to the Nats over the long term. I'm inclined to think it's a bullpen game and Stammen starts, because the point of a bullpen game is to not fall behind early. If Stammen gets through three -- which has been his max so far this year -- then Wang, then Duke -- to preserve all of the others for the last 8(?) games. And Peric might be right -- Perry gets called up to make an appearance in case things get out of hand.

I know Wang has been miserable this year but with no off days I'm happy he's around.

1) The home plate umpire made no call at all until the Dodgers complained which means he wasn't even aware that he had a call to make.

2) When Davie challenged him he immediately asked for help (I am not against asking for help) which means he wasn't paying attention to the play which was right in front of him and was not close at all.

3) The other umpires got together and in the end they all got it wrong which means none of them were paying attention (the 3rd base ump gets a pass because he had a play he had to call).

This is incredible and they should all be disciplined for this and should not be allowed to work in the post season; MLB can do that.

The Ump who blew the play on Saturday at 1st base should be similarly disciplined. This happens every year and it shouldn't be ignored. Umpires laziness should not influence pennant races; their only job is to get these plays right. We are not talking about bang bang plays here or strike zones which are open to some discretion; we are talking about easy calls which cannot be missed.

Agree w/ JD re Lannan. Except that Lannan's lack of confidence is only part of the problem. The other part is he doesn't have a pitch to finish hitters off after two strikes. If he's not going to put the pitch where they can hit it, he has no hope at all. Which is why the walks always kill him.

I'll be at the game Sunday and to be honest, don't really care much who is pitching. I go to see my Nats, win or lose. I'm thrilled when we win and I'm bummed when we lose, but there is nothing like being there in person. And since my chances of going to a postseason game are pretty slim, this is my last one for the year.

Now, to take one last swing at the nearly dead horse that is last night's bogus call, my suggestion is this:

Review every scoring play that involves an actual "play". That means any play at the plate or timing play like last night. No need to review the guy scoring from third on a sac fly with no throw to the plate or the upper deck three-run homer. But reviewing plays like last night, or TyMo's play against the Yankees should just be routine. There aren't that many per game, so it wouldn't slow things down and obviously only review it if one of the managers requests it. So if there are five potentially reviewable calls in a game, two might actually get reviewed. Seems pretty simple and easy to implement, since the review is already in place for disputed home run calls.

For Sunday, I've got to go with whoever is more likely to give them five or six innings, and that's not Wang. They have no days off until the end of the regular season, and I imagine that's what Davey was thinking having Wang as the long guy yesterday. But if they start Stammen, and he can't go five, we'd better hope the bats are hot.

Stammen has shown his value in the BP--Davey and Rizzo understand that as well as any of us, and they're not going to do anything to endanger it.

For what it's worth, Stammen's longest appearance this year, both in terms of pitch count and IP, was 7/19 vs the Mets--62 pitches in 3.1 IP. That was on 4 days rest. As is, he hasn't pitched since last Sunday.

One other factor in considering whether he'd start next Sunday--IP is at least as important as pitch count, since it means more times up and down.

Milone doing a John Lannan. (After a double, he just walked Cabrera and Fielder). And, looking at his face, he's nervous. And, he gets the double-play--out of the jam, but it doesn't inspire confidence...

This is what I discovered about having your team in a pennant race in September (I don't have much experience in that regard). It's wonderful and exhilarating but it's also uncomfortable and excruciating.

The magic number isn't dropping fast enough and thoughts of past collapses (other teams) are always there in the back of your mind (mine at least).

You can't ask the review ump to look at every "disputed call." Otherwise, every game involving Bobby Valentine (if the next week isn't his last) would last five hours. You shouldn't do anything to further encourage V'tine, Guillen and similar others to make spectacles of themselves.

However, Porter and his crew should be banished to the Florida Instructional League without pay, or made to sit outside Nats Park wearing dark glasses and holding tin cups.

That's why (IMO) Lannan has never been and never will be a top notch pitcher. Adrian is no slouch and now you are facing him with 2 men on instead of one and if you can't get him you have Hanley lurking and now you are looking at a 4 run inning when there were 2 outs and no one on base.

I get your point but to me unless I am at the bottom of the order I go after the hitter (Kemp) and as I said the worst thing that happens is a 2 run homer and he's done ok against Kemp before.

JD -- totally get where you're coming from, both as to the novelty of the whole experience (how bizarre to root passionately for the Fish and even the Phils -- when they're playing the Barves) and the nerves.

One thing about the latter. If a collapse should come (both games yesterday don't suggest it will, tho), it will be hard enough in real time, and having agonized about it in advance will not help at all. So why expand the agony before the fact when it's pointless to help with a bad outcome and gets in the way of enjoying the journey to a good outcome?

I know, that's just how some people's temperament works. I was somewhat that way until I had personal experiences that enabled me to put these small diversions called sports in perspective.

But apart from that, if nothing can prepare you for something that's out of your control, why inflict it on yourself? Enjoy the journey!

JD -- NOT that the fourth inning yesterday was enjoyable! But that's about agonizing, for a bit, over what's already happened or is happening. Part of the inevitable baseball experience with even the winning teams that will lose 60+ times a year.

That's why (IMO) Lannan has never been and never will be a top notch pitcher. Adrian is no slouch and now you are facing him with 2 men on instead of one and if you can't get him you have Hanley lurking and now you are looking at a 4 run inning when there were 2 outs and no one on base.

I get your point but to me unless I am at the bottom of the order I go after the hitter (Kemp) and as I said the worst thing that happens is a 2 run homer and he's done ok against Kemp before.

September 20, 2012 1:53 PM

But this is Lannan and how he approaches it and when he has a bad outing its because something like this backfires on him.

This is why he will always be a fringe #3 on average and sometimes look like a hack as happened last night, but up until now, he's been great.

If the Nats go .500 for the rest of the games, they will end with 97 wins. For Atlanta to get 98 wins they would have to go 12-0.

Atlanta's schedule is 3 each against the Fillies, Fish, Mets, and Pirates. They could reasonably go 9-3, and end with 95 wins. That means we need to win 6 of the next 14 games. Just six. Take care of business--we can do that.

Huh? In his first start, he fell two runs behind early and scared the crap out of everybody; in his second start he struggled to go six and scared the crap out of everybody; in his third start he couldn't go six, and in his fourth start he got blown up.

That's great? It's better than Jackson has done over the last four starts but that's damning w/ faint praise.

Theo, he's not an Ace and for some reason people around here won't accept him for what he is which is a #3/4 starter who sometimes gives you an occassional gem while other times ripping out your heart.

Lannan got the job done each time prior to yesterday even though he makes the fanbase nervous.

Lannan will rarely win pretty because he puts people on base (high WHIP) but he has a knack for keeping them from scoring and if he gets good run support will get more W's than L's.

I would take him over Edwin Jackson as he costs much less, is a lefty, and over the season will slightly outperform Edwin.

'I would take him over Edwin Jackson as he costs much less, is a lefty, and over the season will slightly outperform Edwin.'

I will agree from a cost point of view but not performance. Heck; given our other 4 starters for next year I have no problem going with Zach Duke as a 5th starter for $1 - 2 mil a year and spend the difference elsewhere.

I think either Stammen or as Peric has suggested Perry would be the choice on Sunday, perhaps they combine and pitch 6-7 innings. On the umpiring, I am getting sick of them but when post season hits, much of the garbage we are seeing now will not be umpiring

Lannan is not a #3 or #4. The only place he's pitched a "gem" in the last three years has been in Syracuse. The only thing you and I agree on, Ghost, is that he's better than Jackson has been for the last month or so and, as to that, cost does no enter my consideration.

The Nats are over-playing the lefty v. righty starter angle. Versus LH starters the Brewers BA/OBP/SLG splits are .260/.332/.457 against RH starters the same splits are .250/.325/.432.

That does not appear to be big enough statistical difference to justify taking Stammen out of the pen for 4+days or to start Wang (who has been awful at every level this year). Zach Duke out performed Lannan in AAA this year, and has been solid in his MLB outings 6.2 IP 5 HITS 2 BB 5 Ks 1.35 ERA and 0.9 WHIP. I would start Duke; realize that Davey won't do it, but removing Stammen from the pen was a mistake (Davey might have used Stammen last night to start the 9th, rather than Clippard for the 2nd time yesterday; if not for the notion that he wants to start Stammen on Sunday).

'(Davey might have used Stammen last night to start the 9th, rather than Clippard for the 2nd time yesterday; if not for the notion that he wants to start Stammen on Sunday).'

In a tie game in the top of the 9th at home you are supposed to pitch your closer because there won't be save opportunity; having said that I do feel that it's time to start easing Storen into the closer's role.

Well, yesterday both Clip and Storen had already pitched in the first game (as had Burnett). So the alternative would be to put Garcia in for the 9th. However, if the game is still tied, you have to put Clip or Storen in for the 10th, so you might as well use one of them in the 9th and save Garcia for another day. Whoever you use twice in one day is probably unavailable for today and possibly tomorrow.

JD @2:58 -- agree in general but because Stammen is a middle innings guy and Davey thinks it's best to keep guys in relatively predictable roles so they can keep their heads and their preparation properly focused, which is a good idea.

But I still think "you are supposed to pitch your closer in the top of the ninth in a tie game at home" was not right when Clip had already saved the day game, had the second most innings out of the pen this year next to long man Stammen with the prospect of more postseason innings ahead, and when we had a capable late inning fireman in Garcia totally fresh in the pen. Plus Davey has several times this year not gone to Clip in a 9th inning home tie when he'd closed the previous game (much less the same day).

Agree overall as to getting Storen more save opps but he had also pitched in the day game. With no more days off in the regular season, it was time for Garcia.

I like the umpire in the pressbox idea, but it shouldn't be an appeal situation. No one can appeal to him -- not the umps on the field or a manager or player. The guy self-initiates any action he decides to make based on what he sees. If he needs some more time, he can call time and look at replays. If he sees something clearly that the field umps have missed, he simply overrules the call.

Ne can't do balls and strikes. Ideally, I'm for doing that with the lasers, but I know that's controversal.

NCNatsie, agree on all. The way the ump in the box gets the practical (not just the technical) authority to overrule field decisions is to make the fifth ump a part of the regular crew, so everyone in the crew takes the role every fifth day.

The virtue of that approach is that they have to document their decisions with video evidence either way, if they overrule or if they don't and the team that lost the ruling requests it of the league. A team request wouldn't stop or change anything in the game itself but it gives an authoritative record of both the box and the field umps' performance. The reason for this is that it takes away the box ump's inclination to go along with the field crew, because their own performance in the box is at stake.

Umps' incentive to accept this is getting 25% more umps. MLB gets a way to answer whiny teams. And the game is improved.

One thing about your idea that I'm not sure works is the ability to self-initiate action on any play other than balls and strikes. At least starting out, should be for defined situations, or could be arbitrarily disruptive (Joe West with the in-box beeper, anyone?). Because the judgments he would make would all be subject to objective verification via the video record, it would restrain his inclination to be a cowboy.

Who are we kidding? This is all too rational, transparent and accountable for the MLB oligarchy to every accept it.

Perry is on the 40-man. He is being sent to the AFL just because of the surprising year he's had as a first time professional starter. They need to make a decision about him this off season. And yes, Davey (the so-called asst. GM by Ladson) will be a part of that. Does Davey want to see him start? Would that benefit the staff by resting various assets that would be needed to ensure a division title?

Sorry Natslady but CMW is gone after this season. You can root for him in the Indy league.

You can't ask the review ump to look at every "disputed call." Otherwise, every game involving Bobby Valentine (if the next week isn't his last) would last five hours. You shouldn't do anything to further encourage V'tine, Guillen and similar others to make spectacles of themselves.

Well, that's a good point, but I don't think it would take as much time as it does now, and it shouldn't increase the number of arguments--hopefully, it would shorten the ones they do have. Ozzie and Bobby &c. would still be coming out asking "Get help!" and complaining bitterly and profanely about the call, but it shouldn't take any longer to get them back in the dugout than it does now, I would hope.

One question on the 25% increase in umpire jobs--who's paying for that?

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About the Author

Mark Zuckerman has covered the Nationals since the franchise arrived in D.C. He's been a member of the Baseball Writers' Association of America since 2001 and is a Hall of Fame voter. Email mzuckerman@comcastsportsnet.com.