Growth slowing, but Latinos still drive population changes

Rogelio Sáenz, For the Express-News

October 7, 2017

Photo: LUCY NICHOLSON /AP

Latino births in the United States have fallen significantly. Still, 27 states experienced at least a doubling of their Latino populations between 2000 and 2015. This means more attention must be paid to closing racial gaps in education, income and other indicators.

Latino births in the United States have fallen significantly....

As we are in the midst of Hispanic Heritage Month and the political debates draw attention to the Latino population, it is important to reflect on the changing demography of that population in the 21st century.

Long seen as the engine propelling demographic changes in the United States, the growth of the Latino population has slowed somewhat from the close of the 20th century. The Latino population increased by an average annual growth rate of 5.8 percent between 1990 and 2000, but by 4 percent between 2000 and 2015, and even slower (2.3 percent) the past five years.

However, this is not to say that Latinos are no longer driving the nation’s population growth. Between 2000 and 2015, the Latino population increased by nearly 21.3 million while the white population rose by close to 3.1 million. While the Latino population increased 60.4 percent between 2000 and 2015, the white population crept up by only 1.6 percent. The white population is at the eve of a population decline because of its aging population.

We draw on data from the U.S. Census Bureau and the National Center for Health Statistics to assess the changing demographic patterns of the Latino population during the past 15 years.

Opinion

The reduction in the pace at which the Latino population has been growing is due to significant declines in immigration and fertility.

The number of Latinos immigrating to the United States has fallen dramatically the past 15 years. Approximately 3.4 million Latinos came to the United States between 1995 and 1999, compared to nearly 1.9 million between 2010 and 2014, a drop of 46 percent.

Immigration from Mexico fell even more steeply, with a 66 percent descent from 2.3 million to nearly 768,000.

The major decline in immigration is due to various factors, including the economic recession that began in 2008; the increasing difficulty associated with entering the United States, especially after 9/11; the violence in Mexico; and the rising costs of hiring coyotes to smuggle people into the United States.

The portion of Latinos who are foreign-born dropped from 40 percent in 2000 to 34 percent in 2015.

The data clearly do not support President Donald Trump’s image of an out-of-control border that allows hordes of Mexican immigrants easy entry into our country.

Latino births have also fallen significantly. The number of Latino births dropped from close to 1.1 million in the peak year of 2007 to 924,000 in 2015, a decline of 13 percent. The average number of births to Latinas (ages 15 to 44) fell from 2.73 in 2000 to 2.12 in 2015, a reduction of 22 percent.

This has been due largely to the recession, which disproportionately impacted the Latino population, as well as to declines in foreign-born Latinas, who tend to have higher rates of fertility than Latinas born in the United States.

Despite drops in immigration and fertility, the Latino population grew widely across the 50 states and the District of Columbia between 2000 and 2015. However, California, Texas and Florida accounted for approximately half of the 21.3 million Latinos added to the nation’s Latino population during that time.

Other states experiencing significant absolute increases in its Latino population include New York, Arizona, New Jersey, Illinois, North Carolina, Georgia and Pennsylvania.

Twenty-seven states experienced at least a doubling of their Latino populations between 2000 and 2015. Among the most prominent states are Tennessee, South Carolina, Maryland, Arkansas, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Virginia, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Indiana, Louisiana, Utah and Missouri.

Overall, socioeconomic changes between 2000 and 2015 are mixed. For example, there have been some modest improvements in the area of education. The percentage of Latinos 25 and older who are high school graduates rose from 52 percent in 2000 to 66 percent in 2015, and the percentage with at least a bachelor’s degree increased slightly from nearly 11 percent to 15 percent.

Unemployment also declined somewhat, from 9 percent in 2000 to 7 percent in 2015.

On the other hand, income changes have not been as favorable. The median income measured in 2015 dollars fell from $46,270 in 2000 to $44,800 in 2015, a drop of 3.2 percent. While the overall poverty rate among Latinos remained unchanged at about 22.5 percent, impoverishment among Latino children increased slightly from 28 percent to 31 percent. Latinos still lag significantly behind whites and most other racial groups on these socioeconomic indicators.

It is important to reflect on the demographic and socioeconomic conditions of Latinos during this time of the year when we celebrate Latino heritage. Consider the racial discord, with much animosity targeting Latinos.

We also need to distinguish fact from fiction concerning Latinos and their place in this country. The facts are clear. Immigration among Latinos is way down, and this pattern has impacted the demography of the Latino population. The growth rate of the Latino population has waned somewhat. Yet the course that demographers have been projecting over the last several decades of a declining white and an increasing Latino population is still in motion. Of the 40 million people added to the U.S. population between 2000 and 2015, Latinos accounted for 53 percent of the growth — compared to nearly 8 percent for whites.

The share of the U.S. population that is Latino rose from nearly 13 percent in 2000 to close to 18 percent in 2015, while that of whites declined from 69 percent to 61 percent.

Latino children already outnumber white children in Arizona, California, Nevada, New Mexico and Texas, with other states to soon follow.

This represents a harbinger of demographic shifts that will intensify in the coming decades. The latest U.S. Census Bureau’s population projections suggest that the Latino share of the nation’s population will climb from 18 percent now to 29 percent in 2060, while that of whites is expected to fall from 69 percent to 44 percent.

Despite the importance of Latinos to the future of the United States, they continue to be neglected in discussions concerning the development of public policy, debates on current social, economic and political issues, and planning for the future.

Latinos will increasingly impact all institutions of our country; thus, they need to be at the table rather than having people from other groups speaking for them.

Latinos will increasingly flex their expanding political and economic muscle to counter racism, disenfranchisement and anti-Latino policies — efforts to exclude and minimize Latinos from civic participation.

Rogelio Sáenz is dean of the College of Public Policy and is the holder of the Mark G. Yudof Endowed Chair at the University of Texas at San Antonio. He is co-author of the book “Latinos in the United States: Diversity and Change.”