Tag: monetary policy

What I find extremely annoying is the fact that while these banks commit just about every financial crime imaginable, the regulatory bodies refuse to prosecute any banker and continue to harass hard working individuals instead. And, many of these individuals have merely taken precautionary measures to protect their wealth against corrupt governments as well as bad monetary policies.

Jim Rickards discusses the observation that the financial mainstream media is increasingly questioning the credibility of central bank monetary policies. “I don’t actually think that the fundamental state of the world has changed. What has changed, it has become more visible. Analysts, investors and mainstream media are starting to wake up to things like currency wars, the save haven nature of gold, etc. I think the reason for that is that until you reach the zero rate bound, you can pretend it it’s a normal rate cutting exercise. Once you hit zero that pretense is gone and the currency war becomes more explicit.”

The results of the Greek elections and the ECB’s monetary bazooka are all symptoms of the same underlying problem. Debt is not only destroying the value of a currency, but is also destroying values of a population. Governments have not been “managing” the effects when they acquired the loans, but one way or another they feel the need to “manage” the destructive effects when it becomes payback time. And what is the answer? Simple, creating even more debts and devaluing currencies even further. When one country does this in some sort of hypothecial vaccuum, it could theoretically work. But it does not work at all when all regions worldwide are implementing the same policies, simultaneously. The middle and lower class of society are the ultimate victims.

Jakobsen argues that in the current economic environment that what a metals trader needs to focus on is deflation. When deflation bottoms out, which is something likely to happen during Q1 of 2015, it will be the biggest buy signal for metals. Jakobsen’s base scenario is that Q1 and Q2 will become the worst part of the business cycle with the lowest inflation expectation, the lowest growth, the lowest ability to do anything and increasing volatility at the same time. But he believes that as this low energy, as these low interest rates and as the terms of trade for Europe improve, we will see a better second half than we’ll see a first half.

If one thing became clear, it is that the establishment and government have been very scared. The “anti-gold” camp has been firmly reproaching the “pro-gold” camp that they do not understand the economy because it is too complex. In two days, the world will learn whether the “anti-gold” propaganda has worked or whether the Swiss citizens had been able to figure out there were sufficient benefits for their own future to vote “yes.”

While it is impossible to function without a bank account, it is imperative for individuals to do whatever it takes to preserve their wealth. If there is a financial collapse coming, your bank and your government are not going to do a darn thing to save you. And, instead they will destroy your wealth and leave you destitute. This is why it is important to hold both physical gold and silver.

As long the US government resort to high levels of debt, the Fed isn’t likely to decrease the supply of money. Greenspan might have an inkling of something he’s not telling. Here’s what the former Fed Chairman had to say about the direction of gold and interest rates: “Gold – measurably higher. Interest rates – measurably higher.”

In the latest Advisory Board which took place earlier in October, the investment landscape driven by the disinflationary forces signaled by the Incrementum Inflation Signal were discussed. Based on that signal, it seems that the inflation/deflation-tug-of-war is very intense these days. The signal switched to “neutral” at the beginning of August and then very quickly it indicated “disinflation” once again. A rather dramatic move in the USD, commodities, gold and silver followed. As can be seen on the following chart, the signal works well in real-time.

A stagnant job market and poorly disguised inflation is the “new normal” for Americans. Forget about sending the kids to college – it’s going to be a struggle for many families just to make ends meet. Those who don’t own gold and silver will see their dollar savings and quality of life diminish at a faster and faster rate.

Gold prices are still low compared to debt as shown by the gold to population adjusted national debt ratio from the past 44 years. National debt is increasing rapidly, population is increasing slowly, and the gold to population adjusted national debt ratio seems likely to increase substantially from here. Hence gold prices will rally much higher, thanks to massive increases in debt, more currency in circulation, “money printing,” investor demand, higher energy prices, various worries and wars, and Asian demand.

In his weekly market review, Frank Holmes of the USFunds.com nicely summarizes for gold investors this week’s strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats in the gold market. Gold closed the week at $1,280.08, down $24.75 per ounce (-1.90%). Gold stocks, as measured by the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index, fell 3.08%. The U.S. Trade-Weighted Dollar Index rose 1.08% for the week.

The end is nearer and nearer, just not in sight, but for those who can exercise even a minimal amount of foresight, taking self-direction has never been more important. The charts give no indication of panic by those in control of the PM market through the use of derivatives. The fact that China is endeavoring to become the next gold trade center, in control of a legitimate pricing mechanism has done nothing to alter the chart read. Gold has almost disappeared from the headlines this past week, and the fact that it cannot make a move out of its protracted trading ranges explains why. There is nothing apparent over which one can be enthused for the prospects of higher prices, but one must always be prepared for events when they do happen.

Contrary to popular belief, rising rates are no threat to gold. This metal soared in the 1970s during the last secular rising-rate environment as stocks and bonds got hit. Gold powered higher again in the 2000s with both short and long rates far higher than today’s levels. And gold surged during the only major modern rate-hike cycle seen a decade ago, when the Fed more than quintupled short rates.

GOLD & SILVER PRICE

For the week commencing March 2nd, there are some important economic data and central bank announcements, as seen in the table below. The interest rate decision of the European central bank on Thursday is undoubtedly the key announcement this week. Friday is an important day because of the unemployment report and nonfarm payrolls for the month of February. Our expectation is that the events on Thursday and Friday have the potential to create volatility in COMEX gold and silver, hence influence the gold and silver price. The PMI report in the U.S. and Europe, CPI in Europe, and Yellen’s speech at Citizens Budget Commission’s Annual Awards Dinner are not likely to cause volatility in the metals market.

Bear market declines are in place for nearly all the commodities except for a strong Palladium.. Kickback rallies (contratrend rallies) are in place or in progress; some already may be failing. What to watch for is a test of the lows, which may result in a further breakdown, and lower lows, or contrarily, a decline that fails to achieve the former low, thus holding at a higher level, which could suggest the potential for another rally over the weeks / months ahead.

For the week commencing February 23d, there are quite some economic data coming out. No central bank announcement is planned. Our expectation is that the GDP data in the U.S. on Friday can cause some volatility in COMEX gold and silver, hence influence the gold and silver price. The German and U.K. GDP, German and U.S. inflation index CPI, etc should not result in signficant gold or silver price changes, unless those data would be very shocking.