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“The threat from climate change is real on our farm,” Masataka Nakano, deputy general manager of the roaster’s marketing division, said in an interview in Tokyo. “As the difference between the rainy and dry seasons is becoming unclear, and the amount of rain is getting unstable, our crops are vulnerable to damage.”

Global coffee consumption is forecast to expand 2 percent a year through to 2050 and production needs to double to keep pace, according to World Coffee Research. Yet areas fit for Arabica production may halve by 2050, according to the research body. Arabica beans are favored for their better aroma and flavor, while beans from higher-yielding and more disease-resistant robusta trees are mainly used for instant coffee.

Arabica is forecast to account for almost 60 percent of global coffee production in the current marketing year, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Tree Plantings

Key Coffee wants to add new strains to the existing five varieties of Arabica trees on the farm so the quality and quantity will be maintained even under abnormal weather, he said. For production of good-quality Arabica, temperatures need to stay between 18 degrees and 21 degrees Celsius throughout the year, with annual rainfall of about 2,000 millimeters and a wide gap between daytime and night temperatures, according to All Japan Coffee Association, a roasters’ group in Tokyo.

To boost output amid unfavorable weather, producers may increase robusta plantings, or a cross between Arabica and robusta varieties that are easier to grow, said Toyohide Nishino, executive director of All Japan Coffee Association.

“Pure Arabica beans will become less available, and more expensive,” Nishino said in an interview in Tokyo. “To secure their supplies, roasters will have to deepen relationship with growers and pay more for them.”

In Colombia, the biggest Arabica producer after Brazil, farmers are increasing plantings of newly developed variety called Cenicafe 1, which is a cross between Caturra -- a common dwarf tree throughout Latin America, and Timor Hybrid -- the strain made from spontaneous mating of Arabica and robusta plants on the Southeast Asian island.

Key Coffee does not plan to use a cross in its farm as it is concerned that its aroma and flavor would not be as good as pure Arabica, according to Nakano.

In Indonesia, Arabica output could increase if it was more profitable for farmers, said Ucu Sumirat, a researcher at the Indonesian Coffee and Cocoa Research Institute. In the marketing year that began in April, Arabica production in Indonesia is forecast to rise 17 percent to 1.4 million bags, while robusta output is seen growing 3.2 percent to 9.7 million bags, according to the USDA. One bag is 60 kilograms.

Coffee drinkers in Japan shifted to regular coffee from instant as the nation’s economy expanded, according to Nishino of AJCA. Japan is the world’s third-largest coffee importer.

Key Coffee uses as much as 50,000 tons of beans a year from Indonesia, Brazil and other countries, representing more than 10 percent of Japan’s total imports. With the current tree trials, final selections will be made once the trees bear fruit in about a year, said Nakano.