Update on weather for next two a.m. commutes

By
Dan Stillman

A bit of light snow and sleet has left a very light accumulation in spots this evening with little to no impact. After last week's midweek mess, however, a lot of folks are concerned what the potential for wintry and wet weather may mean for tomorrow morning's and Wednesday morning's commutes. Here's our latest thinking...

Radar & lightning: Latest D.C. area radar shows movement of precipitation and lightning strikes over past two hours. Refresh page to update. Click here or on image to enlarge. Or see radar bigger on our Weather Wall.

Tonight/Tuesday: The forecast through early-to-mid morning is best described as patchy light frozen precipitation (snow, sleet, and/or freezing rain), especially in the northern suburbs, with temperatures remaining below freezing in the mid-20s to near 30. While I don't think it's going to be a big deal, I also don't want to downplay it too much, as some slick spots could be around for the morning commute. Overall, though, this is a minor event.

We'll see a general lull in precip chances from mid-to-late morning tomorrow into the evening, though occasional periods of drizzle or freezing drizzle may persist as highs only reach the mid-30s.

Tuesday night/Wednesday: Evening temperatures are in the low-to-mid 30s and the leading edge of the big Midwest storm arrives in the D.C. area around midnight, give or take an hour, in the form a solid shield of moderate-to-heavy precipitation. There's little question that the precip will be rain, since temps at cloud level will be well above freezing - possibly warm enough for some thunder. The question is whether, where and for how long surface temps stay at or below freezing, making any rain that falls freezing rain (rain that freezes on contact with the surface).

This is probably an all plain rain event south of the District. From D.C. north we're looking at the possibility of a period of freezing rain before changing over to rain by 4-7 a.m., as warmer air starts to move in from the south/southeast and as the moderate-to-heavy rain brings down the warmer air from above. The exception is northern Loudoun County, northern Montgomery County, Howard County and points north (including Frederick County), where freezing rain may linger later in the morning. The whole thing is probably over by around lunchtime with afternoon highs well above freezing, in the 40s to low 50s.

Bottom line is that most of the metro area should be ok - soggy but not frozen - by around 7 a.m. Wednesday at the latest, unless the cold air hangs around longer than we currently anticipate. So as of now, it appears that pre-sunrise commuters, especially the further north and northwest you go from D.C., have the most to worry about, but do check back with us tomorrow for the latest.

And finally: We got a good chuckle out of this cartoon here at CWG. Thought we'd share...

GRRR! So frustrating! We've put up with weeks of bitter cold this winter only for the moisture to come in right on the tail of warmer temps almost every time! I demand to know the meteorological explanation for moisture bringing in warmer temps! :P

So it seems (from various sources) that from about Noon tomorrow through 9PM there won't really be any precip to speak of? But then between 9PM-Midnight moderate to heavy freezing rain will move in north and west of the district....perhaps even in DC. Trying to decide if it's worth trying to attend the CAPS game. Guess that decision can wait until tomorrow afternoon to see what the temps and radar look like.

so tired of fc cancelling school. fcdpw does a fantastic job on roads. (this is more than obvious when you head down 85/28 after major event) as a former new englander...fc rates high in my book. my tax $ SAY keep em in school!!!!

I'm a few blocks from Verizon so if you're feeling sheepish about coming into town to catch the Caps start off the post-ASB right, then i'll take the tix!

Personally, I'm disappointed how little white stuff will be on the ground, but I'm glad I will be parking my car underground during most of the freezing rain! That's the worst! Nothing like cracking your doors open under a coat of "Magic Shell"!

I'm cautiously optimistic about tomorrow morning too. One more shift to work tomorrow and then a couple of days off. I did pack a small bag, though, just in case we get stuck at work again like last week!

It's tough to say whether DC itself will have freezing temps at the onset (between 10 pm and 1 am or so). Am afraid it's wait and see. Having said, even if temps are freezing, if roads are treated and it's raining and 32, you shouldn't have significant issues. You need it to be colder for ice accretion in the city.

@ BMSBKiller, if you're talking about FCPS, the reason they close the schools is because we in the western portion of the county have been getting pretty fairly diced up by the winter weather throughout January. Even now, parts of my street are still covered by solid snow and ice, and that's on a curving hill too. Also, tree limbs are still everywhere, and a lot of cleanup is in store for our near future.