Seventh Pay Commission: Employees’ delight, govt’s despair

New Delhi: The Seventh Pay Commission report is awaited, the new pay scales will be applicable to Central government employees with effect from January 2016.

Finance Minister Arun Jaitely

50 lakh central government employees and 56 lakh pensioners including dependents hope to get this gift from April next year. The revised pay scales are likely to be implemented retrospectively starting 1 January 2016.
Many commentators say that the average increase in basic fair pay for all government employees will be in the region of 40-45%.

This is a very rough average because for senior level officers, like the Cabinet Secretary or officials at the secretary level, the payback could increase by more than 50%.

As the Pay Commission numbers come through there could be a 30-40 per cent increase for each central government employee.

An increase of salary and allowances would boost middle class central government employees to spend more time with their families for marketing.

The economy would get a major boost from a pickup in consumption, resulting from an increase in salaries but the flip side to the hike will be a spike in inflation.

The reports of Seventh Pay Commission will be implicated from April next year as Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said in the Parliament on February 27, “The Seventh Pay Commission impact may have to be absorbed in 2016-17.”

Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said above statement in his pre-budget speech. His statement indicates that the government may implement Seventh Pay Commission report from April 2016.

The strongest criticism of Pay Commission awards is that they play havoc with government finances. The pervious pay commissions’ rollout has been negative for fiscal balances.

The recommendations of the second pay commission were accompanied with a financial impact of about Rs 39 crore. The financial burden of the implementation of the third, fourth, fifth pay and sixth pay commission recommendations has been estimated at around Rs 144 crore, Rs 1,282 crore, Rs 17,000 crore and Rs 20,000 crore respectively.

The central government pay and allowances amount to 1 per cent of GDP today. State wages amount to another 4 per cent, making for a total of 5 per cent of GDP.

The medium-term expenditure framework recently presented to Parliament by Finance Minister Jaitley, which looks at an increase in pay of 16 per cent for 2016-17 consequent to the Seventh Pay Commission award. That would amount to an increase of 0.8 per cent of GDP. This is a one-off impact.

One Rank One Pension is also a rider to enforcement of the seventh pay commission’s recommendation. The government is committed to OROP for the armed forces. This would impose an as yet undefined burden on Central government finances.