Thanks for the links, but I've been watching Mao since she won Junior Worlds, I saw every competition she did. In 2007 I thought she started to pay attention to interpretation and her movements, but then she started to look boring and emotionless again. And I'm sorry but elgance goes together with musicality, even if a movement looks technically perfect but has nothing to do with music then it's not beautiful. Yu-Na Kim or Tessa Virtue are elegant because they feel how a movement is connected to music, they have the music in their head and heart. It's so obvious, to me, when I see them skate, that they want to express something.
Yeah, I think Mao doesn't listen to the music at all, she goes through her programmes just because she has to, that's the impression she gives me. And lately she really looks like she doesn't even enjoy performing, her expression is always so sad and tired. Even when she won worlds, last year, she looked so unhappy...she's starting to look a bit like Fumie, who's lost the joy to skate. That's so sad to watch...
You all sound so upset by what I'm saying, that's kind of funny. Thanks again for all the links, but that's just how I feel.

(Replying to posts 297. 299 and 300). What I was startled about was the base values for the two jump layouts. We can see where the skaters gained or lost points on GOEs, etc., but I was mainly curious about the CoP scale of values. (By the way, again just talking base value, Kostner's one mistake on the triple Loop lost her more points (5.06) in base value than Csiney's two -- the < on the flip and the missed 3T sequence together (4.40))

The way the programs were planned, Alissa's base value was (I think ) 39.58 and Kostner's 37.31. Despite all the backloading, Kostner's second-half bonuses amounted to only one point over Czisny's (2.42 versus 1.48, again talking about error-free executions of both programs.)

So it really comes down to, you can score a lot of points without doing the hardest jumps.

As to the two actual performances, I think both skaters did what they could. Carolina could not do the harder toe jumps because of injury. Alissa's flip is always iffy and she is lucky to land her last 3T at all, much less tack on the required 2T. Alissa does not really have the luxury of putting a lot of hard jumps at the end, lest her program fall apart completely.

So I thought they both put out programs that minimized their weaknesses, and gave themselves the best possible chance to win.

Carolina singling a triple was a serious point loser. A single is worth practically nothing. Alissa's UR cost 30% of the triple's base value and the repeated jump cost 20% of a triple. Discounted triples are still worth a lot more than any single.

For similar reasons, Patrick Chan was able to get significant points on fallen quads while popped jumps cost skaters who stay on their feet a lot more.

So it really comes down to, you can score a lot of points without doing the hardest jumps.

It's all relative. If you do lesser jumps really really well (+GOEs) while another skater does the harder jumps really badly (-GOEs), you still have a chance, depending on PCS.

It sounds easy theoratically to backload the jumps but it's very hard to do them well. You need stamina and also mental strength to overcome whatever may have happened earlier in the program. There are reasons bonuses are awarded for late jumps. Get them if you can.

Mathman, I think Czisny's error free base value would have been 0ver 51.54. This is with still the Zayak mistake (20% off the 2nd 3T) because I don't know what she had actually planned in place of the 3T. Carolina's might have been 52.42 except I don't think she would be allowed 2 3Lo+2T combos so I have no idea what she would have replaced one of the 3Lo+2T with.

Well, SHOULD a singled (or doubled) jump be penalized more heavily than a fall??

It's not about penalty if you pop a jump. It's about getting points for what you have accomplished. A single is a single whatever you may have intended it to be. You get a single's worth of points if that's what you do. Your earned points are not calculated from your planned jump, which you didn't do at all. A fall from a fully rotated jump is credited as the orignal jump, with serious penalty. But if that jump has very high value, it's still worth quite a bit after penalty, especially compared to a single. OTOH, if you fall on an easy jump, well, you gain nothing or even lose points. Most jumps are not worth the fall penalty. Falling from an underrotated, or worse, downgraded, jump is also a very serious point loser because you don't get credit for the intended jump and the penalty is deducted from a signifigantly lowered base value.

In my calculation of base values, I mean just for the seven jumping passes.

I think Alissa's last jumping pass is supposed to be 3T+2T. If I am not mistaken she tried a 3T-3T there in pre-season competitions last year (unsuccessfully). In any case, i don't think her team deliberately choreographeed a Zayak violation -- they could have put in a double Axel there instead if she didn't intend a combo.

Correct me if I am wrong, but she keeps smiling through all the mistakes.

Thanks, yeah of course, I saw it. Well can't you see her smile has become a very sad smile? she is smiling just because she has to, that's kind of painful to watch. As I said, she seems to me like she's lost her joy to skate. Just because she smiles, it doesn't mean she looks happy (and smiling has to be connected to the music, right? remember Sarah Hecken who kept flashing her incredible smile throughout her performance last year but it was kind of weird? I thought it was a bit too much) ...I agree Mao smiled naturally when she was younger, but since the Olympics, I feel like she smiles because she knows she has to. That's just the impression she gives me, that's why now it's become sad to watch.

In my calculation of base values, I mean just for the seven jumping passes.

I think Alissa's last jumping pass is supposed to be 3T+2T. If I am not mistaken she tried a 3T-3T there in pre-season competitions last year (unsuccessfully). In any case, i don't think her team deliberately choreographeed a Zayak violation -- they could have put in a double Axel there instead if she didn't intend a combo.

She did 3T+2T as the third jumping pass earlier this season but the landing of the first 3T in the program was a little shaky and she looked a little uncomfortable after the 3F+2T.

And whoever asked about the 3Lo+2T, yes Carolina can do 2 of those, it isn't negated by anything.