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The Early Word: More Lost Jobs

Even though Obama administration officials — and the president himself — have acknowledged in recent interviews that they expected the nation’s unemployment rate would continue to climb upward, this morning’s job-loss report underscores the country’s weakened economy.

The Times’s Jack Healy is up online with the new report from the Labor Department, which details a percentage point increase in the unemployment rate to 9.5 percent, as about 467,000 jobs were lost last month. He writes:

The number of people who have been unemployed for more than 27 weeks has more than tripled since the recession began, to 4.4 million. The median time people go without a job has increased to more than four months, from slightly more than two months at the outset of the recession in December 2007.

“We have never seen a duration of that magnitude,” Lynn Reaser, vice president for the National Association for Business Economics, said. “There are a lot of ramifications. A lot of these people become discouraged, and they drop out of the work force. It affects their spending, their whole psychological frame of mind.”

The new numbers likely will infuse remarks Mr. Obama plans to make later today after meeting with leaders of large and small companies trying to create new jobs in this economic climate. And the latest report provides more fodder for Republican leaders who have questioned all along whether the $787 billion stimulus package would indeed produce new jobs, as the Democratic Congress and Mr. Obama have hoped.

On another front altogether, the first major war offensive under President Obama’s troop buildup in Afghanistan began on Wednesday with about 4,000 Marines pushing into the Helmand River valley.
Reports indicate that one soldier may have been captured by the Taliban, although the Pentagon isn’t releasing much information about the incident yet and the soldier was not a part of the southern region attack.

The Times’s Richard Oppel described the valley region as one of the deadliest in the southern area, where the Taliban have executed guerrilla warfare-like strikes against British troops stationed there. The Washington Post also reports from the region, offering a predawn photo gallery of the deployment preparations.

The timing of the offensive is striking, as the battlegrounds shift in focus. Just a few short days ago, the president quietly marked troop withdrawals from some of Iraq’s major cities and Congressional lawmakers have been feuding over the size of forces and the costs of the war. (An interactive graphic displays the movements.)

Welcome Home On a lighter note, The Times’s David Rhode, who had been kidnapped and held in Afghanistan for several months, returned to our newsroom in New York to what Clyde Haberman described as perhaps the most sustained ovation among journalists there in quite some time.

60 Loses Its Magic Dust: Back at home on Capitol Hill, the addition of Senator-elect Al Franken of Minnesota to the chamber brings with it much discussion of the Democratic majority’s reaching a 60-vote threshold for the first time in 30 years. But The Times’s Carl Hulse puts the filibuster-proof number into perspective, noting that the number itself will be no panacea when it comes to reaching tough legislative goals on health care and energy. The routine absences of two veteran Democrats—Edward M. Kennedy, the ailing Massachusetts senator, and Senator Robert C. Byrd, the 91-year-old West Virginian—combined with the ideological diversity of the Democratic caucus don’t even make passage of routine bills a sure bet.

“We have 60 votes on paper,” Senator Harry Reid, the majority leader, told Mr. Hulse in an interview Wednesday. “But we cannot bulldoze anybody, it doesn’t work that way. My caucus doesn’t allow it. And we have a very diverse group of senators philosophically. I am not this morning suddenly flexing my muscles.”

Keeping occasional mavericks like Ben Nelson of Nebraska, Evan Bayh of Indiana and Mary L. Landrieu of Louisiana in the fold could prove vexing to Democratic leaders. At the same time, senators at the more liberal end of the spectrum have been known to balk when they feel legislation has been too heavily tailored to appeal to more moderate and conservative Democrats.

At the same time, the Democrats’ technical supermajority adds punch to attacks from Republicans, who plan to claim clean hands when it comes to policy failures or inaction.

“I can say without hesitation that this government is totally theirs now, and everything that comes out of it and everything that results from it is on their plate,” said Michael S. Steele, Republication National Committee Chairman, on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” on Wednesday.

Obama’s Talking Tour: Wednesday’s town hall meeting in Annandale, Va., turned into more of a talkfest by the president rather than a lengthy question-and-answer session with invited guests and online queries, according to The Times’s Jeff Zeleny. And even when questions about health care were posed, quite a few were from Democrat-affiliated members of the audience.

Congressional Travel: The Wall Street Journal mines the expense reports of congressional trips, finding multifold increases over the years in the costs to taxpayers.

For Cap and Trade: Speaking of jabs from the right, Senator James Inhofe, Republican of Oklahoma and a longtime foe of climate change legislation, maintained his prediction that the bill passed narrowly in the House last week will succumb in the Senate. “It’s dead in the water,’’ he said on Wednesday, adding that it would not get more than 35 votes.

Employment and Plump Paychecks: The Wall Street Journal reports that workers at some financial firms, including Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. and Morgan Stanley, might see their pockets swell as segments of the economy begin to recover. Goldman, for example could end up paying as much as $20 billion this year, or about $700,000 per employee, based on analysts’ earnings forecasts for 2009. That’s nearly double the firm’s $363,000 per employee average last year, and slightly higher than the 2007 average, $661,000.

Presidential First Fourth: Mr. Obama travels to Camp David this afternoon for an early start to his Fourth of July holiday, in keeping with the droves of travelers heading out on the eve known as getaway day.

California’s Fiscal Woes: California’s growing deficit — an estimated $26.3 billion as of Wednesday—and another budget deadline missed has officials preparing i.o.u.’s for state employees and extending furloughs, reports The Times’s Jesse McKinley. Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger declared a fiscal state of emergency Wednesday after the state’s budget failed to get enough votes in the Legislature at the close of the financial year.

In a piece in the upcoming Times magazine, Mark Leibovich takes a look at the candidates lining up to fill Mr. Schwarzenegger shoes when his second term (his last, due to term limits) ends in 2010.

Schools: California’s not the only state suffering from the effects of the economic recession, and many school districts across the country are imposing steep cutbacks — even summer school cancellations — despite stimulus money flowing into education coffers, according to an analysis by Sam Dillon.

More Palin Fallout: The rippling effects of Todd Purdum’s Vanity Fair article exposing the sustained and often bitter rifts among McCain aides and high-profile Republicans over Gov. Sarah Palin’s vice-presidential run keep on spooling outward. The Washington Post’s Dan Balz and Perry Bacon dig deeper into what it all means for the G.O.P. moving forward.

So much for the Obama stimulus. Eventually the economy will recover and Obama will grab credit for it, but more than 6 months into his presidency things have only gotten worse. I suppose Obama really needs 3 years to turn things around, about enough time for his reelection campaign to start formally running on full tilt.

did not you hero say the worst was over and we are past the worst. Or are you so brain dead you can not see the stimulus package is not working but for one thing, SOCIALISM. the taking over of the banking, automotive and insurance industries. Hay he has completed a trifecta.

For better or worse, I voted for Obama, and I pay enough in taxes. You say it was 8 years of mismangement, I think that is total nonsense. In fact, the roots of the real estate bubble were alot longer in the making than 8 years, and Democrats like Bill Clinton, bob Rubin, Barney Frank and Chris Dodd also had their hands in it.

So how long should we expect it to take Obama to turn things around? Any benchmarks? And what are you doing about it, or are you contnet to see the unemployment rate go up and people lose their jobs because Obama’s stimulus doesn’t really kick in for at least a year?

You republicans crack me up. Get used to your confined position on the fringe of a diminishing, deluded idiotocracy. Oh, and try educating yourselves for a change. For instance, you may be shocked to realize that the US economy represents 50% of the world’s economy. Our economy is tied intimately to all the other major economies. Ergo, fixing the US economy is paramount to fixing the world’s economy.

You may wish to spend some time reading about… mathematics, science, the Great Depression… something, instead of bleating away day in, day out.

I came to this blog to find a post like doc’s, Republican demagoguery, accusing Obama of being liberal. At least on economic affairs he has been very middle of the road. It is often overlooked because of this crisis that with the big government of GW Bush there was a widening of the wealth gap between rich and poor. Obama is trying to reverse that.

Government size is not the issue, government efficiency is the problem and at this time the congress is the greatest impediment to that not Obama.

Obama’s policies will cause the economy to recover then if we had followed the policies that doc wants (to continue to supplement the income of the wealthy.) There may however be a downside to that that the economy’s return to a more normal condition will be delayed.

The catastrophe that we are going through has caused dislocations that will not be easy to repair. Paying off debt and building up bank accounts while maintaining a smooth operating economy is not easy. What doc does not understand that the things that worked when we were in a spending mode does not work when we are savings. One size fits all economic policy does not work. We are lucky to have Obama who believes in free markets but does not worship them.

Job losses hit a high point just before President Obama took office and have been declining ever since. In May there was a pretty significant drop, so June is simply higher than May but lower than any month since last September.

As for the issue about stimulus-created jobs: first, the Republicans and some state governors (like Sanford) have blocked stimulus funds to ensure that Obama is seen as a failure. Second, it took Bush and the neocons eight years to make these messes and there’s not going to be a turnaround in a matter of months during the Obama administration. President Obama is smart, conscientious, and a hard worker, and the American people understand that undoing the Republican damage will take time.

Ah, yes, Paulie, a genius. So are we pro-NAFTA or anti-NAFTA today? Do we want jobs to flow to Latin America and Asia to help fix the Latin American and Asian economies, or do we want to keep jobs in America and see unemployment in poorer countries increase. What are the ramifications? Are we asking Bill Clinton or a union official?

Now it is America’s job to fix the Chinese economy so they (a) buy more American products or (b) sell more Chinese goods to America to finance their purchase of American debt. Let’s make sure we don’t outsource jobs to India so that Americans can work; somehow that will help the Indian economy. Or do we keep sending jobs to India to help their economy? What do Democrats think?

Only a poorly read person would think these are easy questions or that the solution to America’s economic ills and the world’s economic ills are simple or that there is a single objective answer that does not depend on one’s job status or position on the economic totem pole. But since Paulie is a genius Democrat, he must have all of the answers. For some reason, though, we never read them. Just insults. Typical.

What everyone fails to mention is that 1.3 millions jobs were lost during the last year of the Bush administration.
Or that complete lack of oversight or guidance allowed the financial insitutuions, insurance, drug companies etc to completely rape the American people.
Yet these same people expect what took eight years to destroy be resolved overnight, without any cooperation, responsibility,workable or acceptable ideas, honor and integrity from their own party.
They rant about spending but what has the unjustified, unwarrented war with Iraq cost us, even since
“Mission Accompished”?
What about any spending bill being overwhelmingly approved without any questions by the GOP?
Our president inherited the worse diasters handed to any president in the history of our country.
Numerous people have been and are going bankrupt due to health care costs, or worse, dying because they cannot afford treatment.
Open your eyes. Start thinking about our country and us.

I thought Obama got elected on a vision of hope and change. So, the hope is to bad-mouth your predecesor and set banchmarks based on one of the weakest presidents in America. Wonderful ideas for hope, Obama!
The economy is doing so well that we only lost 467,000 jobs in June. Good work Obama!

Let’s see President Obama has been in office since 20 January 20, 2009 or 5 months, 12 days. The GOP has total control of Congress from 1/1995 – 1/2007 and teh White house from 1/2002 – 1/2009. The only “hand” the Democrats had in th economic disaster was Bill Clinton signing the deregulation bill crated by a very obliging GOP Congress. Adn yes, what Bill Clinton did was totally irresponsible.

With that said, the seeds were sewn for this disaster by both Democrats and Republicans slowly taking apart Depression Era legislation starting in the Reagan Administration. So, the problems of today took nearly 30 years to develop; though they were accelerated in 1999. The last time wages increased in relation to inflation (and taking inflation into account) was 1999; right before the OPEC Oil Embargo in 1979.

So, to expect President Obama to fix in 5 months; 11 days what took Congress, greed, and the American people to create is rather an unreasonable expectation. It is well known that there are people in this country to have President Obama and the Democrats to fail, so the GOP can get back in office. There is also a possibility that a number of people are purposely making the economy worse to achieve this goal. It is quite obvious by GOP leaning posters, people like Rush Limbaugh and Newt Gingrich that they are putting their own interests ahead of the country’s. It would not be surprising that the corporate oligarchs, and the real wealthy, who can sit out a deep recession are only biding time why the country continues it fall into fiscal misery.

The GOP right now is targeting House districts right now and using the stimulus bill as a weapon against Democrats which voted for the stimulus bill. They are also running ads against the energy bill and health acre reform; also targeting Democrats. Meanwhile, they have yet to come up with any ideas to get this country on teh road to recovery. Their strategy is to have the Democrats fail, so they can take over.

The GOP, and wealthy, strategy is destroying people’s lives. It is ruing the retired, the unemployed, etc. Someone yesterday in another blog complained about why the press covering the 9% who do not have jobs and not the 91% who have jobs. Well, the underemployed and unemployment rate in this country is really about 20%. 70% of the economy runs on consumer spending. Simple fact, consumer’s don’t spend, businesses don’t make money and they lay off more people. We have been seeing this played out since the recession began now 19 months ago and it has accelerated. The stimulus bill may not be big enough to solve the problem.

And in the end, if conditions today persist into next year, come election time people will remember who was trying to do things to fix the problem and those who stood on the sidelines and threw obstructions in the way. So, as the wealthy and GOP plan their strategy; the 2010 election will be more of a rude awakening for them as the elections eight months ago were.

So, the Democrats’ basic position is blame Bush, look at the problems Bush created, Obama cannot be expected to solve them in 6 months (or any other defined period of time) and just let Obama do what he thinks is necessary. According to Democrats, Americans are traitors if they ask any questions, express any opinion that may differ from the politically correct orthodoxy or exercise any 1st Amendment rights. What I am reading from Democrats like katiec, we no longer should be a democracy, just a dictatorship of the Obamabots, where there is no 1st Amendment or other right of dissent.

NC, thank you for being one of the few intellectually honest conservatives out there today. What you say is true: the figures released today show that unemployment has reached its highest point since…the early months of the Reagan presidency. I wonder if the caterwauling from the fringists here was as shrill in 1982, two years after Reagan took office, condemning his economic policies for failing and making the economy worse than it is even today. More double standards.

However, NC, I must take issue with your praise of Reaganomics. While it did perhaps lead to short term prosperity for some, it increased the gulf between rich and poor and laid the groundwork of lax regulation and greed that came to fruition 30 years later.

Pretty powerful stuff coming from a supported of the GOP which effectively came up with the so called “Patriot Act”, established the TSA (taking shoes off is really going to protect people, while ports go unguarded), started one war for no good reason (other than oil, as there was no weapons of mass destruction), authorized torture of enemy combatants, allow spying on American citizens, etc. If there was anything close to a dictatorship in this country it was under Bush/Cheney and leaders of his party. I do not see anyone now limiting freedom of religion, freedom of assembly, freedom of speech or freedom of petition.

You complain about dictatorship. You do not know what dictatorship is. Maybe you should get away from FOX News and read up on what is going on Iran; that is dictatorship. The United States is not even close.

As memory serves me–the Republicans never stopped claiming that 9/11 was entirely Bill Clinton’s fault–which was roughly three months farther into Bush’s term than we are now.

The recession started in December of 2007–which means Bush had a full 13 months–more than what you’re willing to allow this President to stop it and turn the economy around–the fact of the matter is he did not–and by the end of his term–most economists were describing the economy as being in “free fall.”

And your assertion that Democrats are calling anybody “traitors” for asking any questions or expressing any opinion isn’t just a flat out, laughable lie–it is beneath contempt because that truth is–as any fair-minded observer well remembers–that what precisely what you folks on the right were doing when Democrats questioned any of the policies that idiot Bush and his dark force VP pursued.

Really man–when is it going to dawn on you right wingers that in an era where virtually every newspaper and news organization on the planet have posted their archives on the internet, the days when you could just spout stuff out as if it is fact–and not expect anybody to point out that you simply making stuff up–are over.

Like the issue of the 1st Amendment and the right to dissent.

Gee–let’s all Google on the phrase “free speech zones” and see what comes up–why golly Tom–look–it’s pictures of Bush-era cages.

President Obama drew criticism on Thursday when he said, “we don’t have a strategy yet,” for military action against ISIS in Syria. Lawmakers will weigh in on Mr. Obama’s comments on the Sunday shows.Read more…