A small long-period east swell produced by former East Pacific Hurricane Seymour, which may arrive in the islands later Saturday could linger through the weekend. In addition to this east swell, choppy surf remains elevated along east facing shores due to the strong trades. As a result, a High Surf Advisory remains in effect through Sunday afternoon for most east facing shores of the island chain. This High Surf Advisory will likely need to be extended into Monday.

Small to moderate north and northwest swells are expected through Tuesday. Surf heights are forecast to remain below the High Surf Advisory criteria along north and west facing shores of the islands through early next week. The latest guidance from the Wave Watch III model continues to show a new long-period north-northwest swell will build on Wednesday, peak Wednesday night, then lower gradually on Thursday. A second north-northwest swell is expected to arrive late Thursday, peak Thursday night and early Friday, then lower gradually Friday night. As a result, surf heights may reach the High Surf Advisory criteria along some north and west facing shores of the smaller Hawaiian Islands from late Wednesday into Thursday, and from Thursday night through Friday.

Elsewhere, small south swells are expected to maintain background surf along south facing shores through most of next week.

Tide Predictions

High tide at Kahului was 2.3 foot at 1:53 AM late last night, dropping to a low of 0.7 foot at 7:54 AM this morning, then rising to a high of 1.9 foot at 1:23 PM early this afternoon, before once again dropping to a low of 0.0 foot at 7:40 PM early this evening

The sunrise was at 06:26 am this morning and will set at 05:52 pm this evening. The Moon is currently 29 days old, and is in a New Moon phase. The next Waxing Crescent will occur at 4:35 AM on Sunday, October 9th.

Maui Weather

70°/72°

Wind: NE at 10 mph

Sunrise: 6:30 AMSunset: 6:36 PM

current observations as of 2am March 19th, 2018

Weather Outlook for Saturday

High pressure north of the islands will keep a breezy to windy trade wind flow in place through the weekend. The trades will then ease over the upcoming work week, as high pressure settles southward and closer to the island chain. A trough of low pressure aloft will result in periods of wet trades through the weekend, particularly over windward and mauka areas. A drier more stable airmass will overspread the area for much of next week, bringing more typical trade wind weather back to the Aloha state.

Currently at the surface, a 1028 mb high is centered around 900 miles north of Kauai, and is driving the breezy trade winds across the island chain early this morning. Infrared satellite imagery shows a combination of low clouds and jet stream cirrus, resulting in partly to mostly cloudy skies across the local area. Meanwhile, radar imagery shows numerous showers moving into windward areas, with scattered showers reaching leeward sections of the smaller islands. Main short term concern for the next couple days revolves around rain chances.

Today through Sunday night, High pressure will slowly settle southward over the weekend, with the ridge axis reaching 30N by late Sunday night. This will keep breezy to windy trades in place across the island chain through the period. In fact, winds may flirt with wind advisory levels today across the typically windier areas of Lanai, Kahoolawe, leeward Maui, Maui central valley, and over and downwind of the Kohala mountains on the Big Island. Given the higher than ideal inversion heights for strong gusty winds as well as considerable cloud cover however, will hold off on issuing a wind advisory and as advisory level wind speeds should not be widespread. The gradient is expected to tighten on Sunday as the remnants of an old front shift southward toward the islands, and this may be enough to strengthen winds to advisory levels across portions of the area.

As for sensible weather details, the main feature affecting the area over the weekend will be an upper level trough, which will shift southward toward the state today, and move over the island chain tonight through Sunday night. This will act to de-stabilize the airmass and elevate inversion heights, bringing a more active and at times wet, trade wind shower pattern to the islands. Showers will be most prevalent over windward and mauka areas. Given the elevated cloud depth resulting from the higher inversions, along with steep low level lapse rates lingering over and upstream of the islands however, more frequent showers will reach leeward areas as well through the period.

Monday through next Friday, The trade winds will ease to moderate levels early next week as high pressure north of the state weakens. Moderate trades are then expected to remain in place through the end of the week, as another surface high builds to the north of the island chain. The troughing aloft will linger over the islands through Tuesday, keeping conditions slightly unstable. Ridging aloft will then build southward and over the area for the middle and latter part of next week. Despite the slightly unstable conditions lingering across the area early in the week, precipitable water (PW) values will plummet down to around 1 inch. This will result in more typical trade wind weather returning for the first half of the upcoming work week. Shower activity is then expected to diminish further for the mid to late week period, as a more stable airmass overspreads the island chain and PW values remain below normal.

Windward West (Wailuku, Waiehu):

Windard Haleakala (Hana, Haiku, Makawao):

HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY. Breezy. Occasional showers. Highs around 81 at the shore to around 67 at 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Leeward Haleakala (Kihei, Wailea, Makena):

Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 70 at the shore to 54 to 59 upcountry. East winds 10 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Haleakala Summit

Mostly cloudy. Windy. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows around 48 at the visitor center to around 43 at the summit. East winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.