Who controls Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan will decide

The recent unrest and ethnic violence that has left nearly 200 dead in Kyrgyzstan will undoubtedly break into further tragedy if outside forces are not brought in to quell the violence. 85,000 Uzbeks have already crossed the border to escape the tension. The interim government has called for Russian assistance to put down the unrest, Russia refused and issued an emergency meeting of the CSTO. On one side there is of course Russia, but on the other there is an organisation whose purpose is to maintain order in Central Asia, this is known as the SCO. Both Russia and China are vying for supremacy in this organisation and hence the Central Asian Republics. Not only gas but also trillions in minerals are subject to discovery. Control would mean either Russia dominating minerals for the next century, or China finding resources to fuel her growth. Russia or China, CSTO or SCO? The response to the Kyrgyz crisis will determine whether half of Central Asia goes up in flames or who the hegemon of the region will be. Watch here for response to the crisis and let us see who really wields the power.

Je ne pense pas ainsi. A military intervention would be definitely could considering the status of Kyrgyz military which is very weak at the moment and is not able to tackle the ethnic tensions. China would perhaps be the better choice since Russia has its hands full with protecting its military assets in the country. This is with respect to SCO and Kyrgyz membership in the group. I feel that Russia this time cannot get hold of the minerals as China has been rapidly bidding for any resource available to fuel its manufacturing plants. I am expecting a military contribution by Beijing but most likely we'd expect a Chinese delegation coming to the country and discuss peace.

The recent unrest and ethnic violence that has left nearly 200 dead in Kyrgyzstan will undoubtedly break into further tragedy if outside forces are not brought in to quell the violence. 85,000 Uzbeks have already crossed the border to escape the tension. The interim government has called for Russian assistance to put down the unrest, Russia refused and issued an emergency meeting of the CSTO. On one side there is of course Russia, but on the other there is an organisation whose purpose is to maintain order in Central Asia, this is known as the SCO. Both Russia and China are vying for supremacy in this organisation and hence the Central Asian Republics. Not only gas but also trillions in minerals are subject to discovery. Control would mean either Russia dominating minerals for the next century, or China finding resources to fuel her growth. Russia or China, CSTO or SCO? The response to the Kyrgyz crisis will determine whether half of Central Asia goes up in flames or who the hegemon of the region will be. Watch here for response to the crisis and let us see who really wields the power.

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Armand if Central Asia is on the Afghan road and if the Steppe people rise again whose goose will be cooked in the immediate neighbourhood .I can think of China,Russia and Iran

History shows the only ones who subjugated the steppe people are the Russians and the chinese are smart enough to know that meddling politically in the CAR is not exactly a great idea.The steppe people are pissed off by the way Uighurs are being treated

Both Russia and China are vying for supremacy in this organisation and hence the Central Asian Republics.
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Noï¼Œ China is not competing with Russia over the 'supremacy' in SCO. China is interested in Oil, gas and minerals, and trading there and lots of projects are ongoing. Kazakhstanâ€“China oil pipeline>>>> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kazakhstan–China_oil_pipeline <<< China doesn't challenge Russia's political/securtiy dominance over CAR and Russia acknowledges China's 'ambitions' and hunt for resources there.

All the sides (K, R and C) know clearly their different roles and prime concerns. That's why K interim government calls for R's intervention instead of C's. That's also why the giants can stand under the same SCO umbrella.

In Xinjiang there're also lots of cross-border ethnic minorities like Uzbek, Kazak, and Kyrgyz. China has always been vigilant not to let 'terrorism, religious extremism and separatism' infect Xinjiang from those -Stan's.

You may not have heard much about the growing violence in Kyrgyzstan, an impoverished and corruption-plagued former Soviet republic that's home to 5.5 million people and a delicate ethnic balance that has now completely broken down. But the deteriorating security situation and growing ethnic conflict there matters-for the people who live there, for the region, for Russia, and for the United States.

Kyrgyzstan has been in turmoil since April, when a bloody confrontation between an increasingly unpopular government and opposition activists ousted President Kurmanbek Bakiev, who is now in exile in Belarus. A government led by interim president Roza Otunbaeva took power, but it hasn't been able to establish full control in the south of the country, home to most of Bakiyev's supporters and much of the country's Uzbek minority.

There's a long history of ethnic tension in the region -- the current unrest is reminiscent of a 1990 bloody conflict which was resolved with Soviet troops -- and the power vacuum that emerged in the region in the wake of Bakiyev's ouster in April has helped reignite ethnic resentment.

Last weekend, Kyrgyz gangs, began attacking ethnic Uzbeks in house-to-house raids. The interim government was unable to contain the violence, which quickly spiraled out of control. Reports of large-scale rape and murder have drawn the attention of neighboring governments, international institutions, Washington, and Moscow.

Why should the world be watching more closely?

First, what began as thuggery reached ethnic cleansing levels of violence. While the situation appears to have calmed down somewhat after a nasty weekend, violence is likely to continue. Under attack, huge numbers of the country's Uzbeks have fled in fear for their lives. U.N. officials have called on Kyrgyzstan's interim government to provide refugees with safe passage. It remains unclear if state officials can or will do that.

Second, the current violence is starting to look a bit like the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico: It won't stop until someone stops it. The new Kyrgyz government appears to believe that only Russian soldiers can accomplish that and has called on the Kremlin for help. Though interim leader Otunbaeva today says that international peacekeepers are no longer needed, it is clear that international support is necessary to ensure the safe passage of refugees and the delivery of humanitarian aid to all communities in need.

Third, Russia remains reluctant to wade into a conflict that might turn into a quagmire. But the risks generated by violence so close to Russia's borders and the fear that the country could become a safe haven for anti-Russian militants/terrorists will probably compel Moscow to move forward.

Fourth, to persuade a reluctant Russia, the Kyrgyz foreign minister has now suggested that his government might be willing to revisit a decision to extend the lease on an airbase used by U.S. forces as a vital line of supply for NATO forces in Afghanistan. Moscow holds the cards and could insist that the Americans leave. In what has become typical for the provisional government, individual leaders are sending mixed signals. Otunbaeva, for instance, insists that the lease will be extended, and Russia and the U.S. share an interest in the stability of Afghanistan.

Finally, the governments of the largest of the Central Asia republics-Uzbekistan and energy-rich Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan have done well for themselves politically and economically by playing Russia, America and China off one another. If Russian troops enter Kyrgyz territory in large numbers, that delicate balance could be overthrown in Russia's favor. At the very least, the leaders of countries neighboring Kyrgyzstan will have to weigh Russia's capacity for mischief with each decision of regional importance.

Things are looking up for those in Moscow who would like to rebuild Russian influence across former Soviet territory. A brief war with Georgia in August 2008 proved that Russia could assert itself with a minimum of lasting international outcry. The most recent presidential election in Ukraine produced a more Moscow-friendly government in Kiev. Now a Central Asian government is offering the Kremlin concessions in return for an armed intervention in its territory.

Obscure though the players may be, this conflict is one to watch.

Ana Jelenkovic is an analyst in Eurasia Group's Europe and Eurasia practice. Willis Sparks is a global macro analyst.

A military intervention would be definitely could considering the status of Kyrgyz military which is very weak at the moment and is not able to tackle the ethnic tensions. China would perhaps be the better choice since Russia has its hands full with protecting its military assets in the country. This is with respect to SCO and Kyrgyz membership in the group. I feel that Russia this time cannot get hold of the minerals as China has been rapidly bidding for any resource available to fuel its manufacturing plants. I am expecting a military contribution by Beijing but most likely we'd expect a Chinese delegation coming to the country and discuss peace.

History shows the only ones who subjugated the steppe people are the Russians and the chinese are smart enough to know that meddling politically in the CAR is not exactly a great idea.The steppe people are pissed off by the way Uighurs are being treated

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China meddles in the CAR every day... they speak with bribes. Bribe Karzai, the Taliban, you name it.

central asia is the new big name tell the name of the country and you have everybody poking their nose in there, saudi&arab conglomerate , china , the US an allies, Russia and India inspite of all these the region is still backward and when a region fails to fulfill the aspirations it generally is volatile and a cause for headache to the world community the best that can be done for CAR is some better education , root out the fanaticism, healthcare and job oppurtunities for the youth is also needed afganistan is live example of a place meddled by too many power and what a big headache it has become for the world let CAR not be another afgan like job.... better counties like china and the US give up their dirty games and reach an understanding with all parties involved.

Noï¼Œ China is not competing with Russia over the 'supremacy' in SCO. China is interested in Oil, gas and minerals, and trading there and lots of projects are ongoing. Kazakhstanâ€“China oil pipeline>>>> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kazakhstan–China_oil_pipeline <<< China doesn't challenge Russia's political/securtiy dominance over CAR and Russia acknowledges China's 'ambitions' and hunt for resources there.

All the sides (K, R and C) know clearly their different roles and prime concerns. That's why K interim government calls for R's intervention instead of C's. That's also why the giants can stand under the same SCO umbrella.

In Xinjiang there're also lots of cross-border ethnic minorities like Uzbek, Kazak, and Kyrgyz. China has always been vigilant not to let 'terrorism, religious extremism and separatism' infect Xinjiang from those -Stan's.

If what you say is true, then Russia has no designs on CAR resources. If what you say is false, then they are competing for supremacy. Those nations make the best deals with those who speak the loudest whether money or military aid. Russia cannot stop China from hunting for resources being in the SCO, countries have to make up their own minds. Controlling or influencing the governments is the only way to stop them. No one cares about that dump Urumqi. Go to Almaty, that is a great city.

Paris, May 7 (CNA) The French government might have to pay Taiwan up to 1 billion euros (US$1.33 billion) in fines over the scandalous Lafayette frigate deal struck in the early 1990s, the French daily Le Parisien reported Thursday.

In addition, Thales -- the French company that sold six Lafayette-class frigates to Taiwan in 1991 under its previous name of Thomson-CSF -- might also be required to pay Taiwan US$536.5 million in damages over the US$2.5 billion deal, according to the paper.

The report said that international commercial closed-door arbitration over the case has been concluded, with attorneys from both sides attending the last hearing in March, and that the three arbitration judges handling the case are expected to come up with a final report and arbitration within three to four months.

It added that France will probably be slapped with record-setting fines and that the French government is bracing for a worst-case scenario. A former official at the French prime minister's office was quoted as saying that the French government has done its best to procrastinate over the arbitration process while trying to have Thales pay the full amount of the fines.

The main reason that France might lose the arbitration lies in Article 18 of the Lafayette contract, which prohibited payment of commission.

However, it turned out that Andrew Wang, a Taiwanese arms broker, received US$495 million in unlawful kickbacks on the deal, money that has been frozen in a Swiss bank account.

According to the Le Parisien report, the office of the French prime minister held a closed-door cross-agency meeting every two months that brought together officials from finance, judicial and defense departments to discuss strategies to cope with the case.

The paper said that France tried to lobby Taiwan to negotiate a deal and in 2006, tried but failed to hold government-to-government negotiations to sort out a settlement that could reduce the amount it would have to pay.

According to the paper, Taiwan refused to agree to the negotiations because it regards the case as related to the country's national honor.

Taiwan demanded the repayment of US$520 million of kickbacks, including the US$495 million paid to Wang and US$25 million paid to Alfred Sirven, a former vice chairman of the French oil firm Elf-Aquitaine. Sirven was known to play the role of money laundering and allocation of the kickbacks.

Moreover, Taiwan has also demanded payment of 17 year's-worth of interest on the money, bringing the total amount to around US$2 billion.

The French paper said that if the arbitration court rules fully in compliance with Taiwan's request, the French government and Thales will have to pay the full amount in accordance with a 72 percent: 28 percent ratio stipulated in the original contract.

However, the paper also reported that the French government and the defense contractor expect the fines set by the arbitration judges to be lower than the figure demanded by Taiwan.

Andrew Wang, the French arms supplier Thompson-CSF's agent in Taiwan, fled the country following the death of Navy Capt. Yin Ching-feng under suspicious circumstances in late 1993. Yin is believed to have been poised to blow the whistle on colleagues who had allegedly received kickbacks from the Lafayette deal. Wang has been wanted by Taiwan authorities on a murder charge since September 2000.