This publication presents monthly information on sales of new motor vehicles in each state/territory in original, seasonally adjusted and trend estimated terms. The original data are sourced from the Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries. Sales data are available for passenger vehicles, other vehicles and total vehicles at the state/territory and national levels.

SEPTEMBER 2003 KEY POINTS

Trend

A record high trend estimate of 80,416 for total sales of new motor vehicles was recorded for September 2003. The trend estimate has shown 11 months of continuous growth with a 1.0% increase in September 2003 compared with August 2003. This is less than the 1.4% increase recorded in August 2003 compared with July 2003.

Going against the national direction, the Northern Territory has recorded falls in the trend estimate for the sales of new motor vehicles for the past 6 months. For September 2003 the Northern Territory recorded a fall of 1.4% while the other states and the Australian Capital Territory all recorded increases. Trend growth was recorded above the national average by Queensland (1.7%), South Australia (1.8%), Western Australia (1.2%) and Tasmania (2.0%).

The trend estimate in the sales of passenger vehicles increased by 1.2% in September 2003 compared to August 2003. Other vehicles recorded a trend estimate increase of 0.6% over the same period.

Seasonally adjusted

Seasonally adjusted estimates of total new motor vehicle sales rose from 79,316 in August 2003 to 81,079 (2.2%) in September 2003.

NOTES

DATA QUALITY

Due to a processing problem with the data supplier for heavy truck sales, other vehicles were understated by 367 units in July 2002. These missing units have been included in the August 2002 sales data for other vehicles. The impact on the original series is as follows: New South Wales (119 units), Victoria (63 units), Queensland (84 units), South Australia (18 units), Western Australia (65 units), Tasmania (14 units) and the Northern Territory (4 units).

TREND REVISIONS

The most recent trend estimates are likely to be revised when new seasonally adjusted estimates become available. For further information see Explanatory Notes 9 and 10.

The graph below presents the effect of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimates.

1

The October 2003 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is higher than the September 2003 seasonally adjusted estimate by 4.2%.

2

The October 2003 seasonally adjusted estimate of total vehicle sales is lower than the September 2003 seasonally adjusted estimate by 4.2%.

The percentage change of 4.2% was chosen because the average absolute percentage change over the last 8 years has been 4.2%.

The next annual re-estimation of the seasonal factors will be undertaken after data for reference month October 2003 have been released.

SUMMARY - TREND AND SEASONAL ANALYSIS

Table 1: New Motor Vehicle Sales

Passenger vehicles (No.)

Other vehicles (a) (No.)

Total vehicles (No.)

Change Passenger vehicles (%)

Change Other vehicles (%)

Change Total vehicles (%)

Original

2002

July

45,923

23,859

69,782

-6.5

-19.6

-11.4

August

45,122

24,525

69,647

-1.7

2.8

-0.2

September

43,396

22,638

66,034

-3.8

-7.7

-5.2

October

48,269

24,063

72,332

11.2

6.3

9.5

November

47,229

24,346

71,575

-2.2

1.2

-1.0

December

45,317

22,656

67,973

-4.0

-6.9

-5.0

2003

January

40,015

21,155

61,170

-11.7

-6.6

-10.0

February

43,677

23,058

66,735

9.2

9.0

9.1

March

49,921

26,192

76,113

14.3

13.6

14.1

April

44,602

24,263

68,865

-10.7

-7.4

-9.5

May

49,646

28,616

78,262

11.3

17.9

13.6

June

57,086

34,972

92,058

15.0

22.2

17.6

July

51,450

28,071

79,521

-9.9

-19.7

-13.6

August

49,869

26,304

76,173

-3.1

-6.3

-4.2

September

51,749

26,042

77,791

3.8

-1.0

2.1

Seasonally Adjusted

2002

July

44,390

24,048

68,438

-0.7

1.3

0.0

August

45,301

25,217

70,518

2.1

4.9

3.0

September

45,947

25,194

71,141

1.4

-0.1

0.9

October

45,791

24,955

70,746

-0.3

-0.9

-0.6

November

45,464

23,406

68,870

-0.7

-6.2

-2.7

December

41,865

20,783

62,648

-7.9

-11.2

-9.0

2003

January

49,584

28,103

77,687

18.4

35.2

24.0

February

46,685

24,775

71,460

-5.8

-11.8

-8.0

March

47,875

25,032

72,907

2.5

1.0

2.0

April

48,507

26,090

74,597

1.3

4.2

2.3

May

50,185

27,164

77,349

3.5

4.1

3.7

June

50,132

27,198

77,330

-0.1

0.1

0.0

July

49,687

28,629

78,316

-0.9

5.3

1.3

August

51,866

27,450

79,316

4.4

-4.1

1.3

September

53,175

27,904

81,079

2.5

1.7

2.2

Trend

2002

July

45,060

24,484

69,544

0.2

1.1

0.5

August

45,126

24,581

69,707

0.1

0.4

0.2

September

45,113

24,454

69,567

0.0

-0.5

-0.2

October

45,163

24,265

69,428

0.1

-0.8

-0.2

November

45,355

24,165

69,520

0.4

-0.4

0.1

December

45,724

24,235

69,959

0.8

0.3

0.6

2003

January

46,332

24,512

70,844

1.3

1.1

1.3

February

47,132

25,035

72,167

1.7

2.1

1.9

March

47,983

25,710

73,693

1.8

2.7

2.1

April

48,774

26,357

75,131

1.6

2.5

2.0

May

49,455

26,861

76,316

1.4

1.9

1.6

June

50,097

27,262

77,359

1.3

1.5

1.4

July

50,835

27,662

78,497

1.5

1.5

1.5

August

51,609

28,015

79,624

1.5

1.3

1.4

September

52,220

28,196

80,416

1.2

0.6

1.0

(a) Other vehicle figures for July 2002 and August 2002 have been affected by reporting problems. See Notes.

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