NBA Win Totals (Rest of Season)

The All-Star break is the unofficial halfway point of the season. This week is when all the trades happening and teams try to position themselves for the playoffs. This week is also when 5Dimes releases their rest of the season win totals. Unlike the preseason win totals, we have a lot more data to work with when making our picks with these and can hopefully make better picks.

Some teams might decide to tank, others might decide to buy and trades and injuries can change everything, but all we can do is work with what we have now. The odds that 5Dimes released don’t include either the Pelicans or the Kings because the trade changed their futures so dramatically. (I would have been all over that Kings under no matter what the number was.)

(UPDATE: Bovada has added over/under numbers for the Kings (32.5) and Pelicans (37.5).)

To try and figure things out we created this table below. We took each team’s current winning percentage and their Expected Win Percentage. EWP takes the teams points scored and points allowed to try and figure out what they should’ve won.

For instance, Atlanta has a terrible point differential this season. They should be 27-29, but they are actually 32-24. They don’t have to give those wins back, but they shouldn’t be expected to play as well in the second half. On the opposite end, the Raptors should be 37-20 and the second seed in the East, but instead sit at 33-24.

We then took the projected win percentage and the actual winning percentage and split the difference to make our projections. The results are as follows:

Team

W

Win%

EWP

O/U

NBAFutures Projected Wins

Atlanta Hawks

32

0.571

0.482

45

43

Boston Celtics

37

0.649

0.606

52

51

Brooklyn Nets

9

0.161

0.212

16.5

15

Charlotte Hornets

24

0.429

0.508

36.5

38

Chicago Bulls

28

0.491

0.473

39.5

40

Cleveland Cavaliers

39

0.709

0.694

55.5

58

Dallas Mavericks

22

0.393

0.406

33.5

33

Denver Nuggets

25

0.446

0.456

37.5

37

Detroit Pistons

27

0.474

0.482

40.5

39

Golden State Warriors

47

0.839

0.869

67.5

70

Houston Rockets

40

0.69

0.722

54.5

58

Indiana Pacers

29

0.509

0.465

40.5

40

LA Clippers

35

0.625

0.644

51

52

Los Angeles Lakers

19

0.328

0.276

28

25

Memphis Grizzlies

34

0.586

0.553

47

47

Miami Heat

25

0.439

0.46

38

37

Milwaukee Bucks

25

0.455

0.511

37.5

40

Minnesota Timberwolves

22

0.386

0.465

32.5

35

New Orleans Pelicans

23

0.404

0.379

32

New York Knicks

23

0.404

0.383

34

32

Oklahoma City Thunder

32

0.561

0.496

44.5

43

Orlando Magic

21

0.362

0.258

30

25

Philadelphia 76ers

21

0.375

0.291

30.5

27

Phoenix Suns

18

0.316

0.306

27.5

26

Portland Trail Blazers

23

0.411

0.395

35.5

33

Sacramento Kings

24

0.421

0.394

33

San Antonio Spurs

43

0.768

0.793

61.5

64

Toronto Raptors

33

0.579

0.655

48.5

51

Utah Jazz

35

0.614

0.683

48.5

53

Washington Wizards

34

0.618

0.607

47.5

50

According to our chart the best bets are:

Utah Jazz Over: This line is crazy low for the Jazz. They have shown themselves to be one of the best teams in the Western Conference led by Rudy Gobert and Gordon Hayward. They should only get better as Derrick Favors returns to health and George Hill continues to gel with his new teammates. I feel great about this over, even without the chart.

Orlando Magic Under: They just dealt away Serge Ibaka and that might not be all. Does anyone want Jeff Green, Elfrid Payton or Nikola Vucevic? You can have them. The Magic are heading towards another rebuild after the rebuild that they are currently in just failed. What a sad state of affairs in Orlando.

Houston Rockets Over: One of the best teams in the NBA this season and they should only get stronger in the second half. They had a weird January, but now seem to be the team that we thought they were and the rest can only help. James Harden is on a quest for MVP and the way he plays with Eric Gordon and Ryan Anderson is the stuff of magic.

Washington Wizards Over: This team definitely passes the eye test and is probably the best bet on the board. They have been excellent this year led by John Wall and Bradley Beal. Those two along with Otto Porter, Markieff Morris and Marcin Gortat make up on the best starting fives in the league. They should definitely be buying bench help at the deadline which should make them even better. Terrence Jones and Lou Williams have been linked to them. The Wizards should beat this total, especially when you consider they started this season 2-8 and have gone 32-13 since.