Wow, 4 pages and no one has tried posting that bogus "leaked" product slate from years ago as "proof". I'm shocked.
These ideas crop up in every single thread that discusses (or attempts to) the direction of future content, along with crap like "Teh emerald dream is for sur teh next expanshun!!" and "Playable Naga Demonhunters FTW!".

"Stop being a giant trolling asshole." - Boubouille
"The Internet is built on complaints about asinine things" - prefect
"Facts became discussable when critical thinking stopped being the focus of education."- Chonogo
"Sometimes people confuse "We Don't Understand This Yet" with "Ooga Booga Space Magic" - Chazus

Aside from the fact that you are talking about something that will not likely occur until 3-5 years from now (Titan release), you are also completely discounting the fact that WoW has exponentially more subscribers than any other subscription MMO that currently is or has even been on the market.

Everyone knows those numbers are inflated. 1 subscription in Europe isn't the same as a subscription in China. Heck a subscription doesn't even denote one playing player (it could be 0, or 2). You say I completely discounted the current subscription rate: I actually addressed the prognosis on the subscription rate to be negative with 4 arguments.

And many of those are still running, even with a fraction of the subscribers. The original Everquest, which estimates say topped out around 500k subs and is now somewhere between 100-150k, just released their 17th(?) expansion 13 years after its release.

There is no market for "the original Everquest". Nobody gives a rat about it. The game is EOL. The game is virtually dead. The original Guild Wars, same. UO, same. These games don't attract massive influx anymore. You need to do more than keep the current playerbase playing because it is inevitable they're leaving. _That_ is what dying is about; it means "not growing".

I can still play the original Diablo on battle.net. The server is still running nearly 15 years after its release. Same for Warcraft 2, and it came out in 1995. And neither of those generate subscription revenue. So how old a game is or how bad it's graphics are obviously is not a concern for Blizzard.

That's more a sign of a company which stands behind their production after they got profit from it. You also have to realize it is very cheap to maintain such (but not to develop it further). They're in the same league as those other games I mentioned. And you know who pays to keep those servers alive right? The revenue on other games, like WoW.

People also need to realize that even if WoW lost 90% of it's subscribers, it would still have over 1 million subs. Thats more than all but a handful of MMOs. Realistically, if time machines existed, you could probably jump forward 20 years and still play WoW. WoW will never truly die unless Blizzard goes under.

(Aside from the fact a subscriber lost its meaning due to a US/EU sub not being the same as one from China.) Yes I can see what 1 million subscribers are doing for SWTOR.

Originally Posted by MoanaLisa

[...]

People tend to discount the idea that players in WoW have a lot of time and themselves invested in their toons, mains and alts both. That's one of Blizz's secret weapon really to maintain subscriptions.

[...]

1) I already said players generally leave after 2 years.
2) I also said a proper migration would take such into account. Think of backwards compatibility, think of awesome deals like annual pass.
3) If you play WoW, or any game, from the viewpoint of a permanent game you are in for a wake up call. Many casuals do not play WoW like that though! But those who do are indeed generally OK with sticking with WoW.

Assuming that Titan is going to be a monthly subscription game and not a version of F2P (an assumption that I'm not willing to entirely make at this point but for the sake of making a point) the smart thing will be to make a deal that's attractive enough to get people into both games. Say something like $19.95/month gets you full access to both.

That is indeed not mutually exclusive with microtransactions, SSO, mobile metagames, and so on.

The smart play is to make it easy to play both. And I think that's what they'll do.

Def a possibility especially given the success of the annual pass experiment.

Why does WoW even have to keep raising the level cap anyways? DAoC been out since 2001. Level cap is still the same now as it was then.

---------- Post added 2013-01-09 at 03:50 PM ----------

Originally Posted by lolalola

There is no market for "the original Everquest". Nobody gives a rat about it. The game is EOL. The game is virtually dead. The original Guild Wars, same. UO, same. These games don't attract massive influx anymore. You need to do more than keep the current playerbase playing because it is inevitable they're leaving. _That_ is what dying is about; it means "not growing".

19th expansion was just released. Yea Id say they were dying. Wish people would realize there are other MMOs besides WoW and they are actually a lot of fun. But I guess fun for most people these days is a game thats faceroll easy where you can hit max level in a week with no effort and then start raiding the same day. Thats probably why so many people play WoW because they wouldnt cut it in another game.

WoW is so much money for blizzard and i don't expect Titan to be out till 2015 or even later then that, Reason is because they already said that titan will take away a major amount of players of every blizzard came like D3 did and ofcourse if it would be free to play then they lose millions by just that from WoW.
I think WoW won't die yet, I think they will surprise us again, and MoP is itself already great and i think they got alot more to surprise us with.
WoW won't end yet in a while, and WoW will be biggest MMORPG for next 10 years i asume if they keep up the good work.
Main reason WoW would die is by old age and everyone already has played WoW and know WoW, at 1 point they had every gamer on the world that are intrested in the MMO's and then if the current people aren't enjoy and leaving, then it's over after a long long long time of probably years.

And reason cata lost subscribers because it wasn't new at all, it was a WOTLK Look alike, all that was new was new raids and few contents thats it.

I think cata has hit WoW really hard, because people now feel different about WoW, but i think WoW won't die, and i hope myself the next announcement of subscribers that are playing WoW is 11,000,000+, just to rub it into the poor GW2 face, since they didn't do it as well as people wanted it to be ~Hihi

Everyone knows those numbers are inflated. 1 subscription in Europe isn't the same as a subscription in China. Heck a subscription doesn't even denote one playing player (it could be 0, or 2). You say I completely discounted the current subscription rate: I actually addressed the prognosis on the subscription rate to be negative with 4 arguments.

Even if you remove all the China subscriptions, the number of remaining subscriptions is probably still greater than any other subscription-based mmorpg on the market.

(Aside from the fact a subscriber lost its meaning due to a US/EU sub not being the same as one from China.) Yes I can see what 1 million subscribers are doing for SWTOR.

SWTOR has 1 million subscribers? LOL yeah right, it had 1 million subs for a month or two after launch. SWTOR's current subscriptions are not even close to 1 million.

Originally Posted by Lilly32

19th expansion was just released. Yea Id say they were dying. Wish people would realize there are other MMOs besides WoW and they are actually a lot of fun. But I guess fun for most people these days is a game thats faceroll easy where you can hit max level in a week with no effort and then start raiding the same day. Thats probably why so many people play WoW because they wouldnt cut it in another game.

Erm...are you sure we're playing the same game or am I missing something? Hit max level in a week? And stranger than that, start raiding the same day? Even if you mean LFR, which isn't real raiding anyways, you can't queue LFR the same day you hit max level because of the item level requirement.

Basically what you are saying is that if an MMO's subscriber numbers are not going up, it's dying/dead. Or if it is no longer a common topic of discussion amongst the gaming population, it also is dying/dead.

So really you only think a game is worthwhile if it is the cool game that everyone is playing. Otherwise it is a dying or dead game. That's honestly what I get from your post.

An MMO that still has servers running, that is still in active development, and still has regular content releases is not dead. "Dead" means I can't play it any more, servers are shut off, the game no longer exists. It may not be popular any more. And maybe they aren't delivering content as fast. But as long as people still find enjoyment in it, and can still log in and play, the game is not dead. Dying is a matter of opinion, and again as long as content is still being delivered, the game can still be played, and people still find entertainment value in doing so, who cares if it is "dying"? Certainly not the people who are still playing. In fact, the only time I ever hear someone referring to a game as dying is when that person either no longer plays the game, or possibly never did in the first place, and is trying to prove their overall superiority to those that still play.

I repeat, the only thing that will kill WoW is Blizzard going under.

All this complaining is simply further proof that Blizzard could send each and every player a real-life wish-granting flying unicorn carrying a solid gold plate of chocolate chip cookies wrapped in hundred dollar bills, and someone would whine that Blizzard sucks for not letting them choose oatmeal raisin.

Originally Posted by DeadmanWalking

If your guild demands you slip into an elephants butt and force yourself out in a regurgation then you can't blame Blizzard for supplying the elephant.

Erm...are you sure we're playing the same game or am I missing something? Hit max level in a week? And stranger than that, start raiding the same day? Even if you mean LFR, which isn't real raiding anyways, you can't queue LFR the same day you hit max level because of the item level requirement.

RAF takes 2 days then the rest to 90 in 4-5 days, probably less. Then buy every BoE for your spec off the AH. Using instant queue as a tank/healer run some Heroics for a few drops. Do some BGs for a few more drops. You have enough gear to raid, not very hard.

On these forums I hear many people say things such as:
- blizzar only evar said that wow would go up to level 100 then it would end!
- when we fight sargaras then wow will end :O~~
- thar is only enouf content for 2 more expacs max then wow will end
- WoW uses an old engine is looking dated so it must end soon

No, no, no, no. What exactly is it you think Blizzard will do? Run out of ideas and close the servers? Do you think they are incapable of upgrading their engine?

"Sorry all 10 million of our subscribers, many of you paying $8.99 per month, we've run out of ideas and are incompetent, go play something else".

Blizzard will continue to invent storyline (like MoP), and continue to make major changes to the game well into the future, even if they "only" have 1 million subscribers left.

There is nothing stopping them moving the entire game to a new engine and carrying across all of their art assets. Or even making a major change such as scrapping the levelling system. Or even making the entire thing more like Guild Wars 2.

WoW will continue on far into the future. I would be surprised if it isn't still going on in 15 years time.

UO is still going strong and look how old that is.

8.99$? Last time I played it was 14.99$. Did they reduce the monthly fee? If so, fuck it I'm re-subbing

"Yes, I'm one of those GW2 fan boys who quit WoW and never even played GW1."[/IMG]

The argument is at level 100 Blizz will stop development on WoW and tell the fans "Sorry, but if you want new content you'll have to go to Titan."

Unfortunantly, a dev directly contradicted that by saying "We don't know when the game will end. But think of level 100 as just another number."

"Oh, who does my hair? You might have heard of my stylist. It's called the Void!"
"No matter how much you plead I will not sprout tentacles or turn into a giant eyeball. Well, I might. But not because you asked!"

wow was never supposed to go over level 100? you know what else? it was also never supposed to reach over 5 million subs :>
but this is all long gone history today and you should probably start living in the present :P

On these forums I hear many people say things such as:
- blizzar only evar said that wow would go up to level 100 then it would end!
- when we fight sargaras then wow will end :O~~
- thar is only enouf content for 2 more expacs max then wow will end
- WoW uses an old engine is looking dated so it must end soon

1. If you go through old blue posts, and I mean from tbc ~ early wrath, there is a post saying the level cap will only go up to 100 and thats it, but nothing about the game finishing,
2. Can't say for sure, maybe he will be, maybe he'll turn out to be a puppet of something else, its up to blizzard
3. It would make sense for 2 more expacs to hit level 100, but your right they can come up with much more content if they want
4. The engine can be updated, but not replaced, they've already said they can't replace the engine because it would require every player to uninstall and reinstall practically a brand new game

But you are right, if we only have 2 expacs left, and only to 100, but still over a million users @ 8.99 per month, they will come up with something.

I doubt they would move the entire game to a new engine, I think that would cause a huge dip in users.

Overall I think, wow will carry on for a decent few years, but, once the story line finish's it will be minor patch's and maintenance with server merges, slower getting smaller,

You also need to remember, their working on project Titan, so a lot of their resources are going to go into that, but more or less your right

19th expansion was just released. Yea Id say they were dying. Wish people would realize there are other MMOs besides WoW and they are actually a lot of fun.

Hilarious the point is not if I like a game or not. Heck, you can like a game you're not playing or vice versa. Dune 2 for example. I loved that game so much, still like, but I won't play it. Keep it nostalgic. And who cares about my opinion on game X or game Y? Nobody.

We're talking from a business point of view. We're talking about games which aim for a significant amount of market penetration because Games are a mass market. Media are a mass market. You're just a number in the equation. If I develop a small game and make 1000 people pay for it, then yes I have a business. But if I can make that same game with the same amount of money invested and get 10.000 people pay for it my profit margins are far higher (that's why publishers complain about copyright infringement: every copy which would've otherwise been bought would've been a say 80% part of profit margin in contrast to any physical product). With movies and music the profit margins are even higher because distribution is very cheap. What matters is what are their profit margins? Their market share? How do we calculate it? There's no such studies I am aware of. I am sure you would also claim corporations and products which still exist but are basically insignificant and not growing are still "fun" but reality would like to inform you from an economic point of view they're on their way out, irrelevant. In that regard those who support WoW longevity have a point: Blizzard, and WoW, has been a very profitable part of their business.

But I guess fun for most people these days is a game thats faceroll easy where you can hit max level in a week with no effort and then start raiding the same day. Thats probably why so many people play WoW because they wouldnt cut it in another game.

Red herring.

Originally Posted by Samakuro

Even if you remove all the China subscriptions, the number of remaining subscriptions is probably still greater than any other subscription-based mmorpg on the market.

(I also said more than 1 account.) Yes, but the number is nevertheless inflated. I also said the gaming market is going to heavily change, and that the MMORPG market has saturated (in the context of MMORPGs we play, and games in general, as the way we know it from a PC/desktop point of view).

SWTOR has 1 million subscribers? LOL yeah right, it had 1 million subs for a month or two after launch. SWTOR's current subscriptions are not even close to 1 million.

I don't know how much they got right now but they started with 2 million. The problem with SWTOR is you cannot count the amount of microtransactions and free players. I think its less than 1 million, and it kinda also improves how quick a game can lose market share without new influx of players.

Also: learn to quote.

Originally Posted by Gurbz

Basically what you are saying is that if an MMO's subscriber numbers are not going up, it's dying/dead.

No, what I am saying is if there's no influx of new players the subscriber rate (and with that I refer to the EU/US ones who pay that amount; not the Chinese one which skews the numbers) will go down. If I develop and market the best phone in the universe and then don't bring a new version out eventually my market share will go down. Competitors will take that share like vultures.

Or if it is no longer a common topic of discussion amongst the gaming population, it also is dying/dead.

Not what I said.

So really you only think a game is worthwhile if it is the cool game that everyone is playing. Otherwise it is a dying or dead game. That's honestly what I get from your post.

That's unfortunate. It isn't what I wrote.

In fact, the only time I ever hear someone referring to a game as dying is when that person either no longer plays the game, or possibly never did in the first place, and is trying to prove their overall superiority to those that still play.

In a discussion like this you need to detach your preference (or lack of) a game and detach yourself from that. You think people who study market share and such don't have to do that? FWIW, I guess the fact I killed bosses on heroic raid today proves otherwise.

For you also: learn to quote.

The general problem all of you 3 have is a lack of imagination and creativity in how the market will look like in 3 years. You don't have to be a rocket scientist the market has figured out micro transactions are profitable in games. While WoW is a subscription-based game, other publishers don't have success with such a model. What works is in-game advertising, DLCs (imagine you'd have to pay 10 EUR for patch 5.1 and 25 EUR for patch 5.2), and also games are starting to merge towards cloud, SSO, convergence (including different peripherals). The same game you can play on different hardware. WoW isn't ready for the mobile market, and it won't be ready for augmented reality either. Blizz had to make their WoW remote client for mobile for free because of lack of subscribers and the program can't launch the game. It is a frontend to the in-game chat, the armory, and the AH (the latter I do find impressive btw). Not an in-game client. No pet battles. No touchscreen to run around. No microtransactions or easy way to buy the latest pets and mounts. Gold and gear aren't sold by Blizzard. There's no tablet or console version.