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Collectively, online criminals are using the techniques of the free market to
subvert and corrupt legitimate online business.

In his report Schipka lays out the basic workings of this system, comparing
it to a normal high street experience.

As with high street stores, online crime breaks down into a series of
specialised trades.

Malware writers first create new viruses, spyware, and Trojans to infect
computers, but the majority do not distribute the code themselves.

In fact, they make great play of offering their software 'for educational
purposes only' in the hope that this provides some immunity from prosecution.

The malware writers then sell this code for as little as $250 and customers
can subscribe to updates for an extra $25 a month which ensures that the malware
evades detection.

The middleman who buys malware from a programmer then typically uses the
services of a botnet owner to spread it.

Once the malware has spread, the middleman can sit back and start to collect
stolen information and stolen identities which are then sold on to make money.

According to Schipka's research, a full identity sells for around $5. This
includes name and address, a passport or driving licence scan, credit card
numbers and bank account details.

Credit card numbers sell for between two and five per cent of the remaining
credit balance on the cards in questions.

As competition is stiff, identity thieves offer customers a high level of
service. For example, people can buy identities sorted by a given country,
industry, role or credit card sorted by remaining balance.

There are a range of other services offered within the shadow economy,
including a system of guarantors and escrow accounts to help thieves make sure
they are not ripped off themselves.

Another sign of growing sophistication is the continuous improvement in the
quality of products on sale in the shadow economy.

Malware writers will offer guarantees that a given virus or Trojan will not
be detected using current antivirus programs, and the malware author will supply
a new version if vendors update their software.

The shadow economy has all the attributes of a traditional economy - division
of labour, price competition, marketing etc - but accelerated to internet speed
and carried out online.

Schipka warned that, while it is interesting to observe these classic
economic principles at work, it suggests that malware is going to get more
common and more virulent.

The researcher explained that many conventional antivirus programs rely on
'signatures' to detect malware and update their signature files as new malware
comes to light.

However, this means that a signature can only be created after a new virus is
in the wild and is attacking computers. Worse, malware authors can also download
the signatures and test their creations against the latest updates.

Schipka's research suggests that malware authors can produce new unique
malware every 45 seconds in order to keep it undetected.

With this in mind, Schipka recommends security program developers to use a
combined signature-based and heuristic scanner to help maximise the strength of
their products.