Your Right to Know

President Barack Obama’s decision to begin arming Syria’s rebels deepens U.S. involvement in a
regional proxy war that is increasingly being fought along sectarian lines, pitting Sunni against
Shiite Muslims and threatening the stability of Syria’s neighbors.

Arming the rebels is bound to heighten U.S. tensions with Russia, a staunch ally of Syrian
President Bashar Assad. It could further escalate a brutal, if deadlocked, civil war that has
killed nearly 93,000 people and displaced millions, with no end in sight. There are fears that
Assad’s stockpile of chemical weapons, believed to be one of the world’s largest, could fall into
the hands of Islamic extremist groups or that he might unleash them if he feels cornered.

Why now?

Obama’s decision marks a turning point for the U.S., which up to now had avoided getting drawn
into the conflict militarily. A key U.S. concern had been that U.S.-supplied weapons could fall
into the hands of al-Qaida-linked militants fighting alongside the rebels.

However, U.S. credibility was on the line after the White House said on Thursday that it has
conclusive evidence that Assad used chemical weapons against rebel fighters. Obama has said in the
past such use would cross a red line, suggesting greater U.S. intervention.

Washington’s decision comes at a time of several military setbacks for the rebels and the
growing involvement of Lebanon’s Hezbollah militia, which is fighting alongside the regime.
Hezbollah’s role was key in the capture of the strategic rebel-held town of Qusair this month.

What would the rebels receive?

The full scope of the assistance authorized by the White House is still unclear. But the
administration could give the rebels a range of weapons, including small arms, assault rifles,
shoulder-fired rocket-propelled grenades and other anti-tank missiles. Rebel commanders say they
need anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles to counter the regime’s superior firepower, delivered
from warplanes and armored vehicles. But Obama’s opposition to sending American troops into Syria
and concern about high-powered weapons ending up in the hands of terrorist groups makes it less
likely the U.S. will provide sophisticated arms that would require training.

Who is fighting?

The regional context for the Syria conflict is the struggle for influence between Shiite Iran on
the one hand and major Sunni power Saudi Arabia on the other, backed by smaller Gulf Arab states,
such as Qatar, and non-Arab Turkey.

Assad is part of the Iranian camp, along with Hezbollah. At home, he draws his support largely
from Syria’s minorities, including fellow Alawites, followers of an offshoot of Shiite Islam, as
well as Christians and Shiites. His other foreign backers include Russia and China.

Most rebels are Sunnis. The West, including the U.S., has so far backed the political opposition
and provided humanitarian and non-lethal support to the rebels.

When will it end?

Neither side has been able to deliver a decisive blow since the uprising against Assad began in
March 2011 and escalated into a civil war. Fighting could drag on for months or years.

With Russia and Iran standing by Assad, he seems poised to cling to power for now, even if
unable to retake all of Syria. Some predict an eventual division of Syria into regime- and
rebel-held areas, with conflict simmering for years.

A fall of the regime, a prospect that appears distant at the moment, would not ensure an end to
the fighting. Assad’s die-hard supporters might not lay down arms, and the rebels are divided
between Western-backed moderates, fundamentalist Salafis and al-Qaida loyalists who could battle
for control after a collapse of the regime.

Could this raise East-West tensions?

Russia has been a major weapons supplier to the Syrian regime. Russia said repeatedly it would
honor its contracts to deliver advanced missiles to Syria, including S-300 air defense systems,
ignoring appeals by the West to halt shipments.

Russian officials played down the threat of an arms race yesterday.

The rebels, meanwhile, could obtain weapons from other Western sources. Last month, the European
Union decided to let its arms embargo against Syria lapse, enabling individual members to arm the
rebels. Britain and France had pushed for the measure, though they said at the time such shipments
were not imminent.

What about chemical weapons?

The regime’s chemical-weapons stockpiles are a major wild card in the conflict.

The Obama administration says the regime carried out multiple small-scale attacks with such
weapons, killing up to 150 people. The findings announced on Thursday were aided by evidence sent
to the United States by France, which, along with Britain, has said it had determined that Assad’s
government used chemical weapons.

The regime is believed to be in control of its stockpiles for now. Israel has said it would
strike to prevent chemical weapons from reaching Hezbollah.

What is happening to the region?

The fighting repeatedly has spilled into neighboring Lebanon, Turkey, Iraq, Jordan and the
Israeli-controlled Golan Heights.

Lebanon, still scarred by its own 15-year civil war that ended in 1990, is increasingly on edge.
Hezbollah’s involvement in Syria has prompted rocket fire by Syrian rebels on Hezbollah strongholds
in Lebanon.

Israeli warplanes have struck three times at suspected Hezbollah-bound weapons shipments in
Syria, and Israeli officials threatened more strikes in the event of future arms deliveries.

The conflict already has fueled a spike in sectarian warfare in Iraq as the Shiite-led
government struggles to contain its worst eruption of violence in years amid a wave of Sunni
unrest.