In the U.S., Fukushima has not had any major effect on our nuclear industry

Dear EarthTalk: I thought Japan’s 2011 Fukushima nuclear plant
meltdown would have sealed nuclear power’s fate, but I keep hearing
otherwise. Can you enlighten? — Jacob Allen, New York, NY
The 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster did cause many nations to
reconsider their nuclear committments, though many European
countries–Switzerland, Belgium, Austria, Germany, Italy, Spain and
Sweden — had already begun phasing out nuclear power decades earlier.
After Fukushima, Germany, Belgium and Switzerland all moved to
decommission their nuclear facilities altogether by 2022, 2025 and
2034 respectively.
Japan’s nuclear program, which provided 30 percent of the country’s
electricity needs before the March 2011 disaster, is now essentially
non-operational due to public safety concerns. Furthermore, Japan
announced in November 2013 that, due to the shuttering of Fukushima
and other nuclear facilities, — it was backpedaling its on prior
commitments to cut greenhouse gas emissions 25 percent from 1990
levels.
Here in the U.S., Fukushima has not had any major effect on our
nuclear industry. No nuclear plants have been closed, license
extensions for existing facilities continue to proceed, and the
federal Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has even greenlighted
construction of two new reactors at a nuclear power plant in Georgia.
But public concerns over the safety of nuclear power and what to do
with spent fuel indicate that nukes will likely become a smaller and
smaller slice of the U.S. energy pie moving forward.
Elsewhere, however, many countries are looking to nuclear power as a
way to increase energy production without adding to greenhouse gas
emissions. Casey Research reports that developing countries are
increasingly relying on it to supplement coal and other fossil fuels.
The International Energy Agency predicts global electricity demand
will grow 70 percent by 2035, with the majority of the increase coming
from developing countries — China and India combined will account for
half of the projected growth.
“Serious pollution problems mean that those developing countries
cannot produce all that electricity by burning coal,” says Amir
Adnani, CEO of Uranium Energy Corporation, a uranium mining company.
“The plans to develop nuclear power in China and other countries are
very much driven by a set of realities that is very different and very
acute. People are dying every year in China, literally choking to
death, because of all the toxins that are being put into the
environment by burning coal.”
China now has 17 nuclear plants in operation and another 29 underway.
India has 20 plants running and seven more being built. And the
Russian Federation operates 33 and has another 11 in the works. So
while it might be premature to call it a “nuclear renaissance,” much
of the world doesn’t seem too worried about what happened at
Fukushima. Indeed, nuclear power looks like it could be around for a
long time.
According to MIT’s Center for Energy and Environmental Policy
Research, the real impact of Fukushima has been to remind us all to
take safety much more seriously: “While the international nuclear
industry appears so far to have dodged being hit square in the head by
a bullet from Fukushima, it should not expect that it will get another
chance if there is another serious nuclear accident anywhere in the
world.”
* * * * *Dear EarthTalk: What is the latest prognosis for wind energy to
command a larger piece of the renewable energy pie? — Peter M., Akron,
OH
Hydroelectric sources of power dwarf other forms of renewable energy,
but wind power has been a dominant second for years, and continues to
show “hockey stick” growth moving forward. According to the Global
Wind Energy Council (GWEC), global cumulative installed wind
capacity–the total amount of wind power available–has grown fifty-fold
in less than two decades, from just 6,100 megawatts (MW) in 1996 to
318,137 MW in 2013.
And the future looks brighter still. Analysts from Bloomberg New
Energy Finance (BNEF) predict that wind will account for the largest
share–30 percent–of new renewables added to the global power grid by
2030. That new renewables are expected to account for as much as 70
percent of all new power sources over the next 20 years means that
wind is poised to become a major player on the global energy scene.
Here in the U.S., energy generated by domestic wind farms has nearly
tripled in just the past four years, despite a brief hiccup due to a
lapse in the Production Tax Credit, a renewable energy production
incentive that effectively subsidizes the creation of more wind farms.
But even despite this, wind represented about a third of all new power
added to the U.S. grid over the past five years. The Natural Resources
Defense Council (NRDC), a leading environmental non-profit and wind
power advocate, forecasts that the U.S. will derive some 20 percent of
its total electricity production from wind by 2030.
“The U.S. industry has many reasons for favorable long-term
prospects,” reports the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA), a
non-profit trade group representing the wind industry. “In addition to
the record activity at the end of 2013, wind energy helped keep the
lights on and insulate against temporary price spikes during the
recent ‘polar vortex’ cold weather snap, demonstrating the value of
wind power in a balanced energy portfolio.”
AWEA also points out recent reports showing how incorporation of wind
energy lowers costs for electric consumers. “And critical to some
parts of the country facing continuing drought, wind energy uses no
water in its production, as well as releasing no emissions,” adds the
group.
The fact that wind energy in the U.S. avoids some 100 million tons of
carbon dioxide emissions annually is also good news. AWEA adds that
that number will grow as wind energy scales up to 20 percent of the
grid and beyond “making the addition of more wind power one of the
fastest, cheapest, and largest-scale ways for states to meet the
Administration’s new goals for reducing carbon pollution from power
plants.”
While wind continues to grow fast, solar may finally be catching up.
According to BNEF, some 36.7 gigawatts (GW) of new solar photovoltaic
capacity were added worldwide in 2013 compared with 35.5 GW worth of
new wind power installations. BNEF adds that global demand for wind
turbines may actually shrink in 2014 (by five percent), representing
the first such decline since 2004. But Justin Wu, head of wind
analysis for BNEF, says it’s just a temporary blip: “Falling
technology costs, new markets and the growth of the offshore industry
will ensure wind remains a leading renewable energy technology.”
* * * * *

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