Week 14 Rusher Rating: Focus on Mendenhall

Maurice Jones-Drew’s spectacular performance was only good enough for second place in this week’ Rusher Rating. Brandon Jacobs of the New York Giants led all Week 14 rushers with a 134.72 Rusher Rating. Jones-Drew had a 122.83 Rusher Rating. Shonn Greene, Marshawn Lynch and Steven Jackson round out the top five.

Here are the top 10 rushers of week 14 with a minimum of 15 attempts, based on Rusher Rating:

Player

Attempts

Yards

Yards per Attempt

TD

Fumbles

Rusher Rating

Brandon Jacobs – NYG

19

101

5.32

2

0

134.72

Maurice Jones-Drew – JAX

27

85

3.15

2

0

122.83

Shonn Greene – NYJ

24

129

5.38

1

0

118.84

Marshawn Lynch – SEA

23

115

5.00

1

0

118.38

Steven Jackson –STL

20

63

3.15

1

0

113.95

LeSean McCoy – PHI

27

38

1.41

2

0

113.28

Michael Bush – OAK

23

78

3.39

1

0

109.55

LeGarrette Blount – TB

18

74

4.11

1

1

97.56

Ray Rice – BAL

26

103

3.96

1

1

89.90

Marion Barber – CHI

27

108

4.00

1

1

89.54

For the season, McCoy still holds a commanding lead with a 130.13 Rusher Rating. Ray Rice is a distant second with 110.33 and Marshawn Lynch has a 105.15 Rusher Rating for third place.

Now, the top 10 rushers of the season with a minimum of 190 attempts, based on Rusher Rating:

Player

Attempts

Yards

Yards per Attempt

TD

Fumbles

Rusher Rating

LeSean McCoy – PHI

242

1,172

4.84

14

0

130.13

Ray Rice – BAL

234

1,029

4.40

10

2

110.33

Marshawn Lynch – SEA

225

969

4.31

9

3

105.15

Chris Wells – ARI

216

943

4.37

9

4

104.46

Michael Bush – OAK

196

764

3.90

7

1

103.08

Arian Foster – HOU

239

957

4.00

8

2

100.13

Shonn Greene – NYJ

207

868

4.19

6

1

98.92

Michael Turner – ATL

254

1,068

4.20

8

3

97.85

Steven Jackson – STL

202

895

4.43

5

1

96.45

Frank Gore – SF

234

1,054

4.50

6

2

95.92

Real Running Back Rating

Looking at the season leaders (based on Rusher Rating) through Week 14 of the NFL regular season (minimum 190 attempts) we have the following (Listed by Real Running Back Rating):

Player

Receptions

Receiving Yards

Receiving TD

Rusher Rating

Real RB Rating

Diff.

LeSean McCoy – PHI

45

310

3

130.13

112.73

-17.57

Michael Bush – OAK

26

319

1

103.08

94.30

-8.78

Arian Foster – HOU

45

543

2

100.13

93.62

-6.51

Ray Rice – BAL

62

593

2

110.33

92.71

-17.62

Marshawn Lynch – SEA

22

178

1

105.15

92.08

-13.07

Steven Jackson – STL

30

222

1

96.45

80.00

-16.45

Michael Turner – ATL

11

128

0

97.85

76.09

-21.76

Shonn Greene – NYJ

26

191

0

98.92

70.39

-28.53

Chris Wells – ARI

8

34

0

104.46

69.16

-35.30

Frank Gore – SF

16

101

0

95.92

67.06

-28.86

McCoy again leads in Real Running Back Rating. His 45 receptions for 310 yards and three scores gives him a Real Running Back Rating of 112.73. That gives him a comfortable lead over Michael Bush, who has a Real Running Back Rating of 94.30.

Rusher Rating Differential

San Francisco has yet to allow a rushing touchdown this season. As a result, they still hold the top spot in Rusher Rating Differential with 38.14. Baltimore holds second place with 23.69. The Carolina Panthers are in third place with 22.03, due to their league-leading Offensive Rusher Rating of 125.93. The Colts, Buccaneers, Chiefs, Jaguars and Browns are the bottom five.

Here are all 32 teams ranked, based on Rusher Rating Differential, for the season:

Team

Rushing Attempts

Offensive Rusher Rating

Defensive Rushing Attempts

Defensive Rusher Rating

Rusher Rating Differential

San Francisco 49ers

391

93.49

284

55.35

38.14

Baltimore Ravens

376

97.74

333

74.05

23.69

Carolina Panthers

356

125.93

372

103.90

22.03

Minnesota Vikings

365

110.76

352

91.69

19.07

Houston Texans

460

97.69

290

83.55

14.14

New Orleans Saints

335

110.10

295

97.87

12.23

Miami Dolphins

377

85.66

335

73.62

12.04

Tennessee Titans

310

89.59

369

78.94

10.65

New England Patriots

342

101.53

326

91.70

9.83

San Diego Chargers

351

96.68

387

88.71

7.97

Philadelphia Eagles

372

107.74

339

99.84

7.90

Chicago Bears

358

95.02

303

87.54

7.48

New York Jets

364

96.81

366

90.00

6.81

Pittsburgh Steelers

351

95.84

318

89.60

6.24

Seattle Seahawks

351

91.19

371

87.90

3.29

Atlanta Falcons

366

94.60

316

91.70

2.90

Denver Broncos

433

84.98

394

83.77

1.21

New York Giants

336

99.26

354

98.64

0.62

Green Bay Packers

332

98.93

287

98.33

0.60

Cincinnati Bengals

363

88.20

351

93.58

-5.38

Detroit Lions

299

90.64

347

96.63

-5.99

Oakland Raiders

395

102.70

350

112.53

-9.83

Washington Redskins

312

87.80

363

97.75

-9.95

St. Louis Rams

324

80.92

411

90.88

-9.96

Arizona Cardinals

316

93.60

378

103.81

-10.21

Buffalo Bills

324

90.00

365

105.23

-15.23

Dallas Cowboys

332

76.91

315

94.71

-17.80

Indianapolis Colts

294

87.03

455

105.93

-18.90

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

300

90.52

392

109.77

-19.25

Kansas City Chiefs

388

74.80

418

94.69

-19.89

Jacksonville Jaguars

407

73.52

353

97.02

-23.50

Cleveland Browns

346

65.96

437

93.13

-27.17

Situational Statistics

For the rest of the season, we will focus on a specific running back and their situational statistics. This week, we look at Rashard Mendenhall of the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Rusher Rating

Attempts

Yards

Yards per Attempt

TD

Fumbles

Rusher Rating

Overall

187

710

3.80

8

1

108.61

Real Running Back Rating

Receptions

Receiving Yards

Receiving TD

Rusher Rating

Real RB Rating

Diff.

Overall

13

87

0

108.61

75.18

-33.43

His 108.61 Rusher Rating would put him in the top ten running backs this season, but he falls slightly short of the minimum number of carries used for our analysis. His Real Running Back Rating also compares favorably to the top ten backs in the league. With a few more carries, we could see him on the leader board before the season ends.

Here is how he breaks down by game:

Season

Attempts

Yards

Yards per Attempt

TD

Fumbles

Rusher Rating

@ Baltimore Ravens

12

45

3.75

0

1

33.54

SeattleSeahawks

19

66

3.47

1

0

118.04

@ Indianapolis Colts

18

37

2.06

0

0

64.06

@ Houston Texans

9

25

2.78

1

0

120.80

JacksonvilleJaguars

23

146

6.35

1

0

125.77

@ Arizona Cardinals

13

32

2.46

0

0

66.28

New EnglandPatriots

13

70

5.38

0

0

82.32

BaltimoreRavens

13

52

4.00

1

0

127.50

@ Cincinnati Bengals

16

44

2.75

2

0

120.64

@ Kansas City Chiefs

17

57

3.35

0

0

71.18

CincinnatiBengals

16

60

3.75

2

0

126.13

ClevelandBrowns

18

76

4.22

0

0

75.94

Friends of CHFF predicted that Mendenhall would have a stellar game against the Browns, due to the fact that Ray Rice chalked up a 29 carry for 204 yard performance the previous week (Rusher Rating of 121.64). However, Mendenhall only had 18 carries for 78 yards for a Rusher Rating of 75.94.

Attempts

Yards

Yards per Attempt

TD

Fumbles

Rusher Rating

Running Lane

Left Sideline

5

-10

-2.00

0

0

41.80

Left Side

28

111

3.96

1

0

105.88

Middle

59

234

3.97

0

1

66.44

Right Side

78

290

3.72

4

0

118.19

Right Sideline

17

85

5.00

3

0

132.99

Attempts

1 through 10

119

518

4.35

6

1

116.90

11 through 20

65

182

2.80

2

0

95.10

21 through 30

3

10

3.33

0

0

71.07

Field Position

Own 1-20

36

157

4.36

0

0

76.71

Own 21-50

71

354

4.99

0

1

73.41

Opponent 49-20

45

119

2.64

0

0

67.29

Redzone

35

80

2.29

8

0

118.10

Half

1st

85

367

4.32

5

0

128.10

2nd

102

343

3.36

3

1

92.36

Quarter

1st

54

191

3.54

3

0

120.95

2nd

31

176

5.68

2

0

136.71

3rd

65

269

4.14

2

1

95.14

4th

37

74

2.00

1

0

87.48

Looking at three stats in particular: Number of Attempts, half and quarter, it shows that Mendenhall declines as the game progresses. With a 116.90 Rusher Rating on the first ten carries, he drops to 95.10 on the next ten carries and bottoms out at 71.07 on carries 21 through 30. He has a 128.10 Rusher Rating in the first half, but falls to 92.36 in the second half. A 92.36 is not bad, but it is still a sharp decline from his first half numbers. When we break down the second half into quarters, his decline becomes more apparent. He has a 95.14 Rusher Rating in the third quarter, but falls to 87.48 in the fourth quarter.

Point Differential

Attempts

Yards

Yards per Attempt

TD

Fumbles

Rusher Rating

When Winning

104

431

4.14

2

0

92.40

When Losing

46

161

3.50

2

1

99.76

When Tied

37

118

3.19

4

0

123.05

Winning by 15-21 Points

22

142

6.45

0

0

88.19

Winning by 1-7 Points

67

248

3.70

2

0

99.29

Losing by 1-7 Points

29

103

3.55

0

0

72.27

Losing by 15-21 Points

14

51

3.64

2

1

91.42

Let’s look at how he performs based on margins of victory:

Margin of Victory

Attempts

Yards

Yards per Attempt

TD

Fumbles

Rusher Rating

Wins

153

588

3.84

6

0

108.29

Losses

34

122

3.59

2

1

110.05

Win by 1-7 Points

96

361

3.76

5

0

119.13

Win by 8-14 Points

44

178

4.05

0

0

74.98

Win by 15+ Points

47

171

3.64

3

1

115.35

Finally, let’s break down Mendenhall’s rushing by down and distance:

Down and Distance

Attempts

Yards

Yards per Attempt

TD

Fumbles

Rusher Rating

1st Down

To Go: 1-2 Yards

7

0

0.00

2

0

105.56

To Go: 3-7 Yards

8

16

2.00

1

0

116.63

To Go: 8-10 Yards

102

437

4.28

1

1

80.21

To Go: 11+ Yards

4

12

3.00

0

0

69.24

2nd Down

To Go: 1-2 Yards

9

40

4.44

1

0

129.94

To Go: 3-7 Yards

27

85

3.15

3

0

122.83

To Go: 8-10 Yards

21

91

4.33

0

0

76.55

To Go: 11+ Yards

3

17

5.67

0

0

83.87

3rd Down

To Go: 1-2 Yards

4

12

3.00

0

0

69.24

4th Down

To Go: 1-2 Yards

2

0

0.00

0

0

52.78

He performs at a higher level in short to mid-range yardage situations. When there are seven or fewer yards to go for a first down, he has a Rusher Rating of 120.03. Compare that to his Rusher Rating of 79.36 when the Steelers have eight or more yards to go to get a first down. He also has a better Rusher Rating on first and second down than he does on third or fourth down.