The Situation in the Ukraine. #18

Ghoster wrote:The attacks against Donetsk, Gorlovka and other cities can only be classed as a genocide. Doing nothing to stop or condemn it is akin to supporting it.

It's not genocide, it's ethnic cleansing.Genocide is what the Germans did to the Jews or the Turks did to the Armenians. Not eviction - but industrialized, organized extermination of ethnic groups in their entirety. So let's not cheapen those events by equating absolutely everything to them.

I haven't seen any condemnation from Russia or any threats of sanctions against junta for killing innocent civilians every day.

Russia is not talking about sanctions - it's doing them. Everything Ukrainian is being thrown out of our economy, our defence industries in particular but not only. Counter-sanctions on Ukrainian agricultural produce are in place. Gas discounts have been annulled. Even migration control for workers from the Ukraine (except for refugees from the Donbass) has been tightened as of 1-2 weeks ago.I'm sure more tightening of the screws is under way. But really, these aren't sanctions - as much as annulment of preferences, and benefits - that have been given for the past 23 years for I don't know what reason.Now, everything is fair, and the Ukraine has to play by the same rules as everyone else. And this is sanction enough - as having to play by the same rules as everyone else; there is absolutely nothing that the Ukraine's rusty, old, chronically underinvested in industries and products can offer Russia, or anyone else.No-one can accuse Russia of being unfair to the Ukraine. Which is something that Russia can point to in its propaganda efforts.

As for condemnation - Russia expresses it's disapproval of what the Ukraine is doing all the time, Lavrov is always talking about Ukrainian violations of the Minsk deal, the media here runs footage of the latest destruction wrought by Ukrainian artillery every day, etc...

Here's what Russia's patience will do. In Gorlovka alone there are 6 civilians wounded and 2 killed every day. And this will only increase. That means that by the end of the year there will be 300 more civilian victims and about a thousand wounded.

And half the Russians in Chechnya were evicted before Russia acted against the seperatist government there, and the rest were killed or fled when Russia itself reduced Grozny to ruins which was a city that was mostly populated by Russian-speakers anyway.

So clearly Russia is willing to lose a few battles to win the war, make a few sacrifices if it strengthens its position in the longer term.

Harsh truth for you but there it is. I don't like it any more than you do but Russia can't just invade an entire country and crush its army on humanitarian reasons - even NATO waited some 8 years before directly intervening in the former Yugoslavia.Russia doesn't have to give a damn about what the US and its most zealous allies think, but there are many other countries; such as China, India, even some US allies, etc.. that avoided judging Russia or taking sides against it; while some others only agreed with US-led sanctions reluctantly. But if Russia starts ignoring international law even more blatantly than the West, even they might have to come out and condemn it.

What Russia however can do; is what it did in Chechnya, Georgia, Moldova, etc... which is to help out the rebels with volunteers and arms and other forms of support. In Georgia and Moldova it worked at least, and froze those conflicts. In Chechnya it didn't. In the Ukraine it has worked half-way; however terrible the situation is - it's not full-scale war as it was last summer.

In the end though, it's a waiting game. Russia didn't win the battle in Chechnya, but it did win the war.By the time Russia entered Chechnya for the 2nd time; half the factions rushed to support it - the same ones who battled against it before - as by that time it saw Russia as the better alternative to the absolute chaos and terrorism that had engulfed their country.

The very same thing can happen in the Ukraine. Yarosh is already making overtures to Zakharchenko. Haushofer here keeps bringing up the subject of ethnic homogenity - I am saying that that sort of thing doesn't matter; or at the very least, it stops mattering once there is no more food to put on the table and everyone's familiy is starving.

Ukraine won't collapse because of some energy crisis. It was 10 times worse last winter, and everyone was sure the government would collapse just after a week or two. It won't. As long as it has access to IMF and other western aid, not to mention transit fees and cheap gas from Russia, it won't collapse.

It wasn't 10 times worse last winter, it will be 10 times worse this winter, as this winter the Ukraine just doesn't have the money for gas and there is no more discount.Most serious analysists didn't expect the Ukrainian government to collapse last winter; it was far too early and the economy's decline was still manageable and hadn't started cascading yet.I don't think the Ukrainian government will collapse this winter either, but it will be further damaged, the economy will keep getting worse and dissent will keep building.

In case you hadn't noticed, the IMF is giving the Ukraine the bare minimum just to manage its own repayments to its debtors (most from the same IMF), while the other Western aid has kept it on a lifeline that would ensure minimal gas supplies. However, now however, default looks more and more likely as the IMF might not want to dish out the $3 billion needed to pay Russia's loan, and the Ukraine's private debtors are playing hardball. I also find it hard to believe that the IMF or anyone else will want to pay for the gas supplies at full market price that the Ukraine will need for the winter.

There won't be any NAF offensive. Russia doesn't want more economic sanctions and problems for its economy, so it won't allow it to happen either.

Threats to Russia's own economy and economic sanctions is a consideration; it's just the most minor one for Russia out of all the others. Far more important is to try and drive a wedge between America and Europe by showing that it's doing the most possible to abide by the Minsk agreements, to show the Ukrainian population that it's not the aggressor that the Ukrainian government portrays it as, to not give the Ukrainian government a chance to excuse its economic failures as due to some new Russian offensive and thus imperil the rising dissent and opposition inside the Ukraine, and so on. All these things are far more important for Russia to get right, than the fear of having the wrath of some vague new sanctions slapped on it that will likely come with just as much of a fat silver lining as the previous sanctions did for the Russian economy (acceleration of BRICS/SCO integration, boost to Russian agriculture, increased competitiveness of Russian exports due to rouble decline, etc...)

Of course, the fact that Russia can fulfill all its objectives in the Ukraine w/o having to take any more risks that would bring further economic sanctions to it is also good. Like I said, all Russia has to do is act like a saint, and wait. Time will do its work for it.

Keeping these things in mind, there probably is a higher chance of Novorossiya being destroyed in these 18 months rather than Ukraine. Its civilians are getting massacred every day by artillery after all. That would seem like a much more important problem, and inaction would more likely lead to a collapse.

Novorussia will survive, many new nations are born and tempered in fire, and that ultimately makes them more unified and stronger.The people of the Donbass, with each new atrocity and death, hate Kiev more and more and want independence more and more. The people of the rest of the Ukraine don't have this motivation, they just grow more and more tired of the propaganda and the sacrifices they are being asked to make, and poorer and poorer.

Now, I'm not saying the Russian approach in Chechnya was correct - in retrospect Russia itself played a large part in forming that lawlessness, and it should have acted/reacted to the unfriendly turn of events sooner

I'll just take that part of your post, "sooner"

Look, I'm military and have been all my life, I don't give a fuck about economics, politics and diplomacy, if I did I would be on a forum specifically for those subjects. I say that Dzerzhinsk should be taken today for military reasons and am not interested that we should wait a year, or two, or five, the residents of Gorlovka will have a harsh answer for anybody who dares say that to their face. If Chechens had been bombarding Vladikavkaz I doubt even the asshole Yeltsin would have delayed action, that they were not is actually irrelevant, but ukrops are bombarding Gorlovka and Donetsk, so why wait. This is almost being treated as if there was no war and both sides are worried about implications of starting a fight, but the reality is that the war is 18 months old and continues every day. There is a very legally shaky ceasefire, not some treaty of Versaille, ceasefires are nothing, less than an armistice, vapour, so what is the problem for VSN to actually defend the cities by removing the possibility of artillery bombardment? Please lay this out clearly.

If Chechens had been bombarding Vladikavkaz then that would mean that they are attacking Russia.

If the Ukrainians are bombarding Gorlovka and Donetsk - that only means that they are attacking their own legal territory, and not Russia. Same as they have been doing before.

So yes, legally there is a difference.

The Minsk Treaty is not Versaille, you are right - so why are you complaining?All it really is is a roadmap. It's not enforced by anybody, it's not objectively supervised by anybody. Really - it's nothing; except that sticking to it has huge propaganda value, and the Ukraine can't afford to break it too blatantly - as evidenced by its reluctance to move into regions the rebels vacated (albiet the Ukrainians have tactical reasons for this too).

Ruthenius wrote:When you think that they all just cannot degrade any lowerhttp://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/world/europe/article4514313.ece

Epic retardation. Since we have NATO accusing Russia of having invaded, then Russia can supply some fully functional nukes.What is the point of building a dirty bomb? Do contaminate the conquest and make it worthless?

It seems that the dumbing down of the western educational systems has progressed to the point where illogical drivelsuch as this has the ring of truth. This makes NATO extremely dangerous.

Now, I'm not saying the Russian approach in Chechnya was correct - in retrospect Russia itself played a large part in forming that lawlessness, and it should have acted/reacted to the unfriendly turn of events sooner

I'll just take that part of your post, "sooner"

Look, I'm military and have been all my life, I don't give a fuck about economics, politics and diplomacy, if I did I would be on a forum specifically for those subjects. I say that Dzerzhinsk should be taken today for military reasons and am not interested that we should wait a year, or two, or five, the residents of Gorlovka will have a harsh answer for anybody who dares say that to their face. If Chechens had been bombarding Vladikavkaz I doubt even the asshole Yeltsin would have delayed action, that they were not is actually irrelevant, but ukrops are bombarding Gorlovka and Donetsk, so why wait. This is almost being treated as if there was no war and both sides are worried about implications of starting a fight, but the reality is that the war is 18 months old and continues every day. There is a very legally shaky ceasefire, not some treaty of Versaille, ceasefires are nothing, less than an armistice, vapour, so what is the problem for VSN to actually defend the cities by removing the possibility of artillery bombardment? Please lay this out clearly.

If Chechens had been bombarding Vladikavkaz then that would mean that they are attacking Russia.

If the Ukrainians are bombarding Gorlovka and Donetsk - that only means that they are attacking their own legal territory, and not Russia. Same as they have been doing before.

So yes, legally there is a difference.

The Minsk Treaty is not Versaille, you are right - so why are you complaining?All it really is is a roadmap. It's not enforced by anybody, it's not objectively supervised by anybody. Really - it's nothing; except that sticking to it has huge propaganda value, and the Ukraine can't afford to break it too blatantly - as evidenced by its reluctance to move into regions the rebels vacated (albiet the Ukrainians have tactical reasons for this too).

What happens in Ukraine is a civil war and Russia is not a beligerent, the Ukranian state and two rebellious oblasts are. Therefore, as Russia is not a belligerent, of what business is it of Russia if the army of the two rebellious oblasts fight or not, other than wagging finger from the sidelines and making weak western style noises about peace etc etc. As Russia is not a belligerent and has no forces in Donbass, how can any attempt by VSN to stop artillery bombardments of two of it's cities be an issue for Russia. Either Russia is directly involved or it is not, and if not, which of course is the case, then let's fuck these assholes bombarding the cities. If the front was hundreds of km away from the main cities, then there would not be this issue, but the front is in the suburbs of the main city and fourth largest in DNR/LNR. I see no precendent in history, other than a seige, which this is not, for allowing an enemy to bombard your main city when you have the capability to attack them. Leningrad suffered only because it was impossible for so long to break the front, not from a lack of will or attempts at trying. Voronezh suffered for the same reasons, and of course Stalingrad. What reason is there to not stop artillery bombardments of cities when there is the capability of doing so. This is what I constantly ask and do not get a coherent answer for. Being the "nice guy" or appeasing the "partners", for whatever reason, is not sufficient. This is not calling for tanks in Kiev, simply stopping a bombardment, yet this is too much, really.....

And as for Minsk, no, it is not Versaille, yet it is being presented as some holy of holies that must be rigidly stuck to as if it were a full peace treaty and we must all kowtow to Minsk, no.

flamming_python wrote:As for condemnation - Russia expresses it's disapproval of what the Ukraine is doing all the time, Lavrov is always talking about Ukrainian violations of the Minsk deal, the media here runs footage of the latest destruction wrought by Ukrainian artillery every day, etc...

There's so little criticism from the Russian government I can't even remember the last time they said anything about the attacks by junta. Lavrov simply stated a few weeks back that Ukraine must withdraw its troops from Shyrokyne along with some Minsk-talk bullshit. That's it. Nothing more after that.

flamming_python wrote:So clearly Russia is willing to lose a few battles to win the war, make a few sacrifices if it strengthens its position in the longer term.

Harsh truth for you but there it is. I don't like it any more than you do but Russia can't just invade an entire country and crush its army on humanitarian reasons - even NATO waited some 8 years before directly intervening in the former Yugoslavia.

My point still stands. As much as this war concerns Russia, it concerns the people in Donbass more and what they want. If more and more innocent people are going to get killed, while Zakharchenko says that he won't be provoked by the attacks to retaliate, then it's more likely people there are going to start questioning their government and in whose interests it works for.

flamming_python wrote:In the end though, it's a waiting game. Russia didn't win the battle in Chechnya, but it did win the war.By the time Russia entered Chechnya for the 2nd time; half the factions rushed to support it - the same ones who battled against it before - as by that time it saw Russia as the better alternative to the absolute chaos and terrorism that had engulfed their country.

The waiting game is not in Novorossiya's favor. The situation is the same as in the last autumn only a few times worse. Junta troops are now better entrenched, better trained, still surround the major cities and can still shell them whenever they want.

A prominent leader of Ukrainian extremist volunteer militias is calling for a "crusade" against Russia. He first wants to expel the rebels in eastern Ukraine and then "burn Moscow down," DWN wrote''.......

Ghoster wrote:The waiting game is not in Novorossiya's favor. The situation is the same as in the last autumn only a few times worse. Junta troops are now better entrenched, better trained, still surround the major cities and can still shell them whenever they want.

The position of the UA is a two edged sword. Yes, they are all cosy in their 'Maginot' line but to achieve anything they have to leave it, exposing themselves to serious danger. Yes, they can shell Novorossiya anytime they want but, having perhaps been lulled into a false sense of security, the reverse applies too as they are probably pretty much sitting ducks if they got some real return fire.

Ruthenius wrote:When you think that they all just cannot degrade any lowerhttp://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/world/europe/article4514313.ece

Epic retardation. Since we have NATO accusing Russia of having invaded, then Russia can supply some fully functional nukes.What is the point of building a dirty bomb? Do contaminate the conquest and make it worthless?

It seems that the dumbing down of the western educational systems has progressed to the point where illogical drivelsuch as this has the ring of truth. This makes NATO extremely dangerous.

No doubt the Neocons thought they would try the old WMD story again, it worked for Iraq, and partially for Syria to get the sheeple to support the US invasion.

No we don't shoot; no we don't shoot back! Oh wait, they shell us, we shell back! But, but, but.....they shell us first, and oh, oh, oh, with larger weapons! Oh but wait, we have snipers, but no no they don't shoot! No Vice News, you can not see our position (because if you see our position, you will see what we are shelling the rebels with."Oh, oh and they are Russians! .......and Right Sector, who is not even part of Ukraine armed forces, is shown 300 m. from Donetsk Airport, and it was, according to him, rebels or someone, who "overstepped their border", but pppl in Donetsk, etc are living where they always did, and Right Sector came from Kiev!

Holding The Line For Another DNR Assault: Ukraine's Failed Ceasefire (Part 2)

flamming_python wrote:If the Ukrainians are bombarding Gorlovka and Donetsk - that only means that they are attacking their own legal territory, and not Russia. Same as they have been doing before.

So yes, legally there is a difference.

I seem to recall Putin vowed to protect ethnic Russian anywhere, not just in Russia. I take it to mean attacking ethnic Russians in Donbas is the same as an attack on Russia itself. Or am I missing something?

flamming_python wrote:As for condemnation - Russia expresses it's disapproval of what the Ukraine is doing all the time, Lavrov is always talking about Ukrainian violations of the Minsk deal, the media here runs footage of the latest destruction wrought by Ukrainian artillery every day, etc...

There's so little criticism from the Russian government I can't even remember the last time they said anything about the attacks by junta. Lavrov simply stated a few weeks back that Ukraine must withdraw its troops from Shyrokyne along with some Minsk-talk bullshit. That's it. Nothing more after that.

flamming_python wrote:So clearly Russia is willing to lose a few battles to win the war, make a few sacrifices if it strengthens its position in the longer term.

Harsh truth for you but there it is. I don't like it any more than you do but Russia can't just invade an entire country and crush its army on humanitarian reasons - even NATO waited some 8 years before directly intervening in the former Yugoslavia.

My point still stands. As much as this war concerns Russia, it concerns the people in Donbass more and what they want. If more and more innocent people are going to get killed, while Zakharchenko says that he won't be provoked by the attacks to retaliate, then it's more likely people there are going to start questioning their government and in whose interests it works for.

flamming_python wrote:In the end though, it's a waiting game. Russia didn't win the battle in Chechnya, but it did win the war.By the time Russia entered Chechnya for the 2nd time; half the factions rushed to support it - the same ones who battled against it before - as by that time it saw Russia as the better alternative to the absolute chaos and terrorism that had engulfed their country.

The waiting game is not in Novorossiya's favor. The situation is the same as in the last autumn only a few times worse. Junta troops are now better entrenched, better trained, still surround the major cities and can still shell them whenever they want.

"Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.". Attributed to Napoleon some 200 years ago. Let the orcs dig, and dig some more.

Because if Kiev is killing , ato is killing "Russians", well, ok, it's okay to kill Russians, as compared to killing Ukrainian citizens.....

It is the difference in words that men use to murder their own citizens, by demonizing Russians, and using the word Russian.

The logic is quite simple, Kiev's rhetoric is based on the nationalistic idea that being Ukrainian equals to not being Russian, being the latter the antithesis of the former and vice versa, so there's no conflict in their statements.

Ukraine is running out of coal, oil and gas. Maybe they will use money to buy them or they will face an energy eclipse. There is also a good question, how much fuel and ammunition Ukrainian army have in reserves.

medo wrote:Ukraine is running out of coal, oil and gas. Maybe they will use money to buy them or they will face an energy eclipse. There is also a good question, how much fuel and ammunition Ukrainian army have in reserves.

Don't worry. Russia will give Ukraine all the coal, oil and gas it needs, as a gesture of good will of course.

Ruthenius wrote:When you think that they all just cannot degrade any lowerhttp://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/world/europe/article4514313.ece

This is so stupid it's beyond stupid. It's beyond low.

They must think that people have the brains the size of peas. Up to now, humans must have given them reason to think so. Tell humans any lie, any deception, & they believe that. Tell them the facts/truth, and they don't.

& some persons are just so evil.

That report show the American and British Governments are already in plans to use dirty bombs , and later blame it on the Rebels.. No this does not surprise me ,not even remotely. For me the real surprise is how we have not seen yet a nuclear reactor "Accident" in Ukraine and later blamed on Russians or the Rebels. I have been saying since 2014 when Americans began to talk about providing "non lethal" weapons to Ukraine.. the big possibility that Ukraine could be supplied with nukes.. or chemical weapons or any weapon of mass destruction if.. Europe does not stand at closed doors ,while in discussion of Ukraine ,and demand Americans to stop their illegal war in Ukraine. against Russia.

So things like biological weapons ,chemical weapons ,nuclear reactors "accidents" , any thing that can be used to force the eastern ukrainians to flee their territories and stop fighting could be used.. The MH17 Malaysian plane incident is just the tip of the iceberg how far the can go..The same factions behind the Ukraine conflict ,who financed it and overthrow Yakunovych are the same factions who created the "Terrorist" attack in 2001 at world trade center..and later blamed it on Jihadist in afgan caves. So whenever anyone wants to know how far they can go.the Wallstreet mafia ,who influence US foreign policy ,no lo further than 9/11 WTC 2001.

Hopefully MR Putin will not be caught with pants down , by any chemical or radiation attack on Donetsk and Lugansk and be ready with plan B.. how to develop enough camps for 3 millions citizens from Donetsk and Lugansk if forced to flee. Also be prepared in the diplomatic level to blame ukraine and americans for it..with an investigation. The only way the war can be stopped is with Europe pressure on Americans.. to stop the war.. Something as simple as Europe threatening Americans ,with lifting all the sanctions in Russia and recognizing Crimea as Russia and Russia rights to defend civilians in Donetsk and Lugansk will be enough to keep their dirty fingers away of any major crime. The Biggest Nightmare and Terror of US Government and political elite will be that Europe leave NATO and makes alliance with Russia. SO Europe do have ways to pressure Americans to stop their war in Ukraine.

There are other ways too to sabotage DOnetsk and lugansk ,to make it more costly for Russia to help them..and that is why kiev forces shell Donetsk electricity plants and water plants. and bomb the mines and have an economic embargo on them. other things they could also try is sabotage to DOnetsk and LUgansks agriculture. using Poison and biological or chemical agents.

Vann7 wrote:Hopefully MR Putin will not be caught with pants down , by any chemical or radiation attack on Donetsk and Lugansk and be ready with plan B.. how to develop enough camps for 3 millions citizens from Donetsk and Lugansk if forced to flee. Also be prepared in the diplomatic level to blame ukraine and americans for it..with an investigation. The only way the war can be stopped is with Europe pressure on Americans.. to stop the war.. Something as simple as Europe threatening Americans ,with lifting all the sanctions in Russia and recognizing Crimea as Russia and Russia rights to defend civilians in Donetsk and Lugansk will be enough to keep their dirty fingers away of any major crime. The Biggest Nightmare and Terror of US Government and political elite will be that Europe leave NATO and makes alliance with Russia. SO Europe do have ways to pressure Americans to stop their war in Ukraine.

See the bolded parts.

After all the time and effort that I have wasted trying to educate your kind. You have absolutely no idea how the West works!!! None what so ever.

Even if Kiev nuked the whole civilian population of DPR and LPR out of existence it would change nothing how the West sees Russia and how it sees Ukraine. All would remain the same. Russia would get more sanctions and Ukraine would get more support.

If Donbass population stands in the way of their goals then Kiev will have a red light to wipe them out in any way they see fit.

If Kiev used nukes against Donbass the West would say that it was Russia and put more sanctions on Russia. This is how it would be.

Trying to appeal to morals and dignity of the West is simply a waste of time. These are completely amoral people.

Last edited by Karl Haushofer on Sat Aug 01, 2015 10:45 pm; edited 1 time in total

Karl Haushofer wrote:Don't worry. Russia will give Ukraine all the coal, oil and gas it needs, as a gesture of good will of course.

True , but not in quantities necessary to make lasting reserves. Which is good , because any escalation of conflict will not last long like before.

Frankly I don't understand this. What does Russia gain from preventing a more devastating economic collapse of Ukraine?

My guess is that Ukraine has leverage over Russia because Russian gas transit goes through Ukraine so Russia is forced to support Ukraine because otherwise Ukraine would shut the gas flow to Europe. Russia gains billions of dollars from these gas sales to Europe annually.

Karl Haushofer wrote:Don't worry. Russia will give Ukraine all the coal, oil and gas it needs, as a gesture of good will of course.

True , but not in quantities necessary to make lasting reserves. Which is good , because any escalation of conflict will not last long like before.

Frankly I don't understand this. What does Russia gain from preventing a more devastating economic collapse of Ukraine?

My guess is that Ukraine has leverage over Russia because Russian gas transit goes through Ukraine so Russia is forced to support Ukraine because otherwise Ukraine would shut the gas flow to Europe. Russia gains billions of dollars from these gas sales to Europe annually.

And you told Vann7 he does not understand politics...

This isn't some sprint but a marathon, russia can't win by just doing all devastating things it could do any second if it did not care about future. They care about future and reintegrating the artificial created Ukraine, since it has shown to have absolutley Zero capability to live and have any rights to exist whatsoever. Russia does not need that russians stand divided due the politics of the west and everything russia does is used to fuel the stupid people to let them believe Russia is enemy of russians which call themselfs Ukrops. As soon russia gives no fucks about its future enough will be lost to comprimize further progress, unity and with that stability of russia domestic and at its boarders. It could shit on economics and just go within 2 weeks to kiev and liberate russian soil from USrael and their little nazi zombies shouting for bandera. Would be also an opportunity to capture every single Banderasite and deliver them to the polish radicals and see how that ends.

Yes, the west produces lies to blame russia for things that never happened or turn 180° the truth like "Russia is coming closer to NATO boarders", what matters is that US is invitebly falling and with it its construct and curtain of lies, their controlled and influenced MSM and their lies will fate in future, but what remains is what was documented and people will call upon that. Russia not going ballistic on little USrael's Nazi lapdog proxy terror state which is russian in nature will shut doors up for further coorperation and changing things like they are now back to how it was and should be.