Unexplained absence weakens Xi’s power base

In China the news is very often what the state-run media is not talking about. This month, the glaring omission from Communist Party organs has been the slightly puffy face of presumptive president Xi Jinping.

Given the party is furiously trying to build Xi’s profile across the country prior to him taking office, his absence is highly unusual.

It has been 11 days since Xi gave the opening address at the Central Party School in Beijing.

His absence from public view only became obvious, however, when he abruptly cancelled a meeting with US Secretary of State
Hillary Clinton
on September 5.

At the time it was widely reported as a snub, but Xi’s absence has grown ever more conspicuous.

Initially, he was thought to have suffered a back injury while playing soccer, but it increasingly looks to be more serious, possibly even a stroke.

The question for China watchers is what effect this has on Xi’s authority and ability to exercise power, assuming he takes office.

Compared to his two predecessors, Xi is considered relatively weak anyway. He does not have a natural power base on the Standing Committee, the top body that runs China.

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His absence will also strengthen the hand of President
Hu Jintao
, who is said to be lobbying hard to remain chairman of the Central Military Commission beyond his term in office.

This was expected to happen prior to Xi’s disappearance, but it looks all the more likely now. It does after all provide an ideal excuse for Hu to remain as CMC head for at least two years, as
Jiang Zemin
did after ­leaving office.

Xi’s absence also has potential economic consequences if it sparks a fresh round of politicking.

According to the Beijing rumour mill and Hong Kong press, the make-up of the new standing committee has largely been determined – latest speculation suggests it will be cut from nine to seven members.

The resolution of this issue seems to have allowed the top leadership to refocus on the economy, resulting in the approval of long-delayed ­infrastructure projects in an effort to kick-start the rapidly slowing economy.

If the leaders have to refocus on politics, the economy is sure to suffer as it did earlier in the year.

The other problem for the party is that Xi can’t remain absent for much longer.

The 18th Party Congress, where Xi will be unveiled as General Secretary, is expected to be held in mid-­October.

That means the actual date needs to be announced within the next week. But to do this, they need to be sure that Xi is ready for office.