Wild Cards in Our Future

Wild Cards in Our Future

Article excerpt

In the January 2009 issue of Futurist Update, the World Future Society's free e-newsletter, we invited readers to submit their ideas of "wild cards" that futurists need to be looking at critically right now. This section showcases a few of the responses.

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What is a wild card? According to FUTURIST editor Edward Cornish, author of Futuring: The Exploration of the Future, a wild card is "an unexpected event that would have enormous consequences if it actually occurred."

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Many wild cards are disasters, such as an asteroid striking the Earth. However, a wild card might be highly beneficial, such as a revolutionary energy technology that emits zero carbon dioxide, or a surge of peaceful co-existence among long-standing enemies.

The "advantage" of disaster scenarios, in terms of futurists, is that they give clear and urgent reasons for thinking ahead, whereas the possibility of a pleasant surprise does not normally inspire a need for planning. …