Blizzard of '78: Forecasting now and then

Thanks to a greater number of sophisticated computer models, meteorologists are taking smaller leaps of faith today than at the time of the Blizzard of '78.

Mary Byrne

When the first storm of 2018 hit the North Shore, we were relatively prepared for what kind of weather to expect.

That wasn't exactly the case 40 years ago, when the Blizzard of '78 developed into one of the storms much of the northeast would remember for decades to come. Discrepancies in forecasts — from the National Weather Service and between different stations — meant nobody was quite sure what to expect during those days in February 1978.

That's in large part because meteorologists at the time were working with fewer and less sophisticated computer models, therefore having to take bigger leaps of faith than they do today, said WCVB Stormteam 5's Chief Meteorologist Harvey Leonard.

Since those days, he said, advancements in computer models and other technology has improved the accuracy and confidence with which meteorologists can forecast the weather.

"Usually," Leonard said. "You don't have to take massive leaps of faith like I had to, days before the Blizzard of '78."

In short, today's meteorologists can better prepare residents for the weather headed their way.

A leap of faith: Forecasting 'the biggest [storm] of the season'

The Blizzard of '78 is one Leonard remembers vividly — from the days before the storm and through the weeks that followed. A meteorologist for Channel 7, it was his first winter forecasting on Boston television.

Prior to that, he worked three years as a chief meteorologist in Providence.

"Even though it was 40 years ago, we still had computer models — not as reliable as we have today — but still, they were the best computer guidance we had," said Leonard. "So, you combined that with your education, experience as a forecaster, knowledge of the local area, familiarity with weather patterns, and that's how you came up with forecasts."

In the days leading up to the storm in 1978, he noticed the ingredients of a blizzard coming together, beginning with a bitter cold air settling in.

Leonard said he forecasted the storm to be one of the biggest of the season — a "bold statement," he said, considering two weeks prior the area was hit with a storm that brought 21 inches in 12 hours.

But would this storm hit the Boston area?

"It seemed pretty clear we'd be in the envelope of it," he said.

Leonard said he was confident in his forecast, but was cautious to go "full barrel."

"I remember saying on air, ‘One doesn't want to go too far out on a limb, because one may fall off,'" Leonard recalled.

More accurate, frequent forecasts

Today, precipitation totals may vary by a handful of inches from station to station, Leonard said, but you'll no longer hear one meteorologist saying an area is going to get hit big while another is saying it's going to be a miss.

That's thanks to the vast improvement and development of better forecasting technology, he and other meteorologists say.

Computer models are working with a better set of initial conditions, using information from more locations around the country, the world and the atmosphere, according to Leonard. Improved satellite technology also allows meteorologists to get a better set of initial conditions on the weather that's happening over the oceans.

"Add all that together, you're going to have more accurate results," he said, adding forecasts can also go further into the future.

Computer processing power has also dramatically increased, meaning results from computer models can come quicker and with more frequency.

Dave Dombek, a senior meteorologist at AccuWeather.com, also said the greater number of sophisticated computer models has improved the ability to accurately forecast weather.

"Back then, it was so limited," Dombek said. "You had your one or two real basic, simple models, and some of them had some serious issues. They would make common errors every day."

Meteorologists would make corrections based on known biases of certain models and based on their own experience and knowledge of weather patterns, he said.

Room for improvement

Though today's forecasting requires fewer and smaller leaps of faith or need for human correction, both meteorologists say the system isn't quite perfect.

"It’s come so far over the 40 years," Leonard said. "That’s why forecasts, on average, the accuracy has increased substantially. Is it perfect? No. there are certain situations that are so complex."

One area Leonard said meteorologists still lack confidence in forecasting is where the heaviest bands of precipitation will be.

"Say you forecast a storm of 6 to 12 inches for the entire North Shore, what will often happen is there will be — within the 6 to 12 inch area — there will be narrow bands that are even heavier than that," Leonard said.

Dombek said there is arguably shortcoming that comes with having so many models to rely on for developing a forecast.

"Sometimes, you're going to get to the point where you're modeled to death ... It's like information overload," he said.

For Leonard, it can be a challenge to keep up with all the computer models and staying current social media, all while still having to be on air as much as he has to be.

That said, he'd rather his problem be too much information than too little.

Leonard noted as forecasting improves, so do standards.

"Now, if a forecast said 3-6 inches of snow, and 7 inches fell… Four years ago, that’s great; now, people might be upset," he said "That’s human nature."