Tuesday, June 30, 2015

EuroI think the euro's going to get much stronger because they're going to
toss the Greeks out. That's whats going to end up happening despite the fact the German business class wants to keep the Greeks in it. I think the German public has had enough, wants them out. And suddenly the Euro becomes a valuable commodity instead of a devaluing currency. It certainly looks like the Euro has made its lows. It certainly looks like the Greeks will be tossed out. This is not a very pretty sight. Now is the time to buy the Euro.

The Indian monsoons have started, dropping enormous sums of rain, which should make farmers happy. For the gold market this is great news for farmers are the bulwark of the gold market in India which remains either the first or second most important buyer of gold at any one time, vying with China for that honor. Happy Indian farmers are historically buyers of gold. They have been so for ages; they will be so again.

Monday, June 29, 2015

The problem is we haven’t the faintest idea what the news is, or how it shall be delivered, or why, or when, or by whom. We know that there are meetings taking place all across the continent, and we know that each meeting may be, or may not be, important. We know that there may be and there may not be a proposal or proposals put forth by the Greek government, or that there may be, or may not be, counter-proposals put forth by the Germans, or the French or the Austrians, or by FIFA, or the USGA or any other related or non-related organisation with an axe to grind, or not. In other words, no one has any rational ideas what may or may not happen. Certainly we’ve not.

Tuesday, June 23, 2015

All we can say at this point is that confusion reigns. One moment it is that a Greek default is imminent and that all sides have taken intransigently opposite positions and the next moment it appears that some form of reconciliation amongst he belligerents seems imminent instead.If I were the Greek prime minister I would have defaulted long ago and left because at least I then know I can get my currency back, I can devalue it, my textile industry becomes competitive, my tourism industry becomes competitive again, my shipping industry becomes competitive.

Germany needs to keep Greece in the euro to keep the euro otherwise cheaper than it would be because Germany is an exporting country.Bayer needs Greece in. Thyssenkrupp needs Greece in. Daimler needs Greece in. And that's the problem. That's the confusion that people are talking about.

Wednesday, June 17, 2015

Gold in US dollar terms has seemed to have found support at the $1,170 - $1,180 level and although time only shall tell if that support shall prove ephemeral or material, for now suffice it to be said that we are impressed.

Monday, June 15, 2015

The US dollar has come under virtual assault, falling violently in many instances while falling only materially in others, as it has lost ground relative to every other currency we mark in our morning commentary and that is a very, very rare occurrence indeed. In fact, we cannot recall it having happened before, although we cannot be certain of that fact for we’ve not the computer scanning capabilities here at TGL to prove that statement. Even if there have been one or two or even ten such instances in the past, the point here is that this is a rare occurrence indeed. Further, not only has the dollar fallen relative to all other currencies it has done so, as we’ve said, violently, having moved 2.2 Euros over the course of twenty four hours, or just over 2.0%. In the realm of forex dealing, this is several weeks’ worth of movement; it has happened in twenty four hours.Why? Because the newest member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Bank, Dr. Lael Brainard, gave a speech Tuesday to the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C. and focused a good deal of her attention upon the dollar, its recent strength and the implications of that strength to the US economy and to monetary policy.Turning to gold, in US dollar terms the monthly chart is making a visit into “The Box”. That is the area that marks the 50-62% retracement area with $1185 or so marking the top of the Box and with $1000 as the bottom. Retracements happen and typically the Box will identify a support area during a retracement area of a major move like we’ve seen in gold’s bull run since 2001. We will be watching this move very closely over the next several weeks.VIA http://www.etftrends.com/2015/06/currency-market-violence/

Monday, June 8, 2015

There's plenty more crude oil being found all around the world. I think it's going to be very difficult to push WTI much beyond $65 maybe $66. I think it's going to be relatively easier to get the WTI down into the high $40's or low $50's.The whole world is happy with $60 WTI [and] with $65 Brent. Producers are happy with that number—or at least reasonably happy with that number. Consumers are happy with that number. The users of crude oil are happy with that number. It wouldn't surprise me if we actually did go sideways for a protracted period of time.

Thursday, June 4, 2015

The US Dollar has soared following two important circumstances last Friday. Firstly, Consumer Prices rose a good deal more than had been thought likely, raising the possibility of the Fed moving to tighten monetary policy sometime in the not-too-distant future, and secondly Dr. Yellen make the boldest and clearest statement yet that the overnight fed funds rate almost certainly would be raised this year. Those events are a sign that the ground beneath the markets has shifted; that the tectonic plates are moving and that they are set to move again soon.

We note Greece and the EUR, paying special heed to the fact that the Interior Minister, Mr. Nikos Voutsis, said on Greek national television last weekend that Greece almost certainly will default on its loans to the IMF sometime in June. He minced no words. His statements cannot be misunderstood. They were and are that clear for he said that after four months of talks with the IMF and the other members of the Brussels Group that no progress has been made and thatThe four installments for the IMF in June are €1.6 billion. This money will not be given and is not there to be given.Calling the austerity programs demanded of Greece and of the Greeks a program of “asphyxiation,” Mr. Voutsis made it very clear that the government under Mr. Tsipras is not prepared to push ahead with further austerity.We shall grant that Mr. Voutsis is from the Syriza Party’s very far left wing and we understand that he has no choice but to make statements such as this; but his sounds like a voice of reason when compared to people in the party.These so-called institutions in the last four months have applied a drip-feed torture on the Greek people, one of the most horrible blackmail practices in world history at the expense of the country.The Prime Minister, Mr. Tsipras, has tried to walk a path on the Left between men such as Mr. Voutsis and Mr. Lafazanis and the Brussels Group, but his path is becoming more and more tenuous in nature and the default clock is ticking ever louder.

Originally published at http://www.etftrends.com/2015/05/greece-teeters-the-world-watches/

Wednesday, June 3, 2015

I think things are changing in China for the better, not the worse. It still needs to go down just a tad more.Give prices another 3, 4, 5 percent on the downside, take me back close to the upward sloping trend line and, you betcha, I'll be a buyer.I think President Xi is really doing all of the right things, attacking corruption as he should be doing. And the monetary authorities are still going to be expansionary. The trend is from the lower left to the upper right. As the saying "Don't fight the fed"... dont fight the people's bank of China.

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