Daniel Ortega, president-elect of Nicaragua for a third consecutive term. Image taken from Wikimedia Commons.

President Daniel Ortega‘s victory in the 2016 Nicaraguan elections at the beginning of November came as no great surprise to both onlookers and Nicaraguans. The elections, which have provoked little reaction from citizens, have allowed Ortega a third consecutive term in office in this Central American country.

Daniel Ortega's long career in Nicaraguan politics is primarily rooted in his leadership of the Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN), a leftist political party which has played an important role over the past few decades in Nicaragua. The foundations for the FSLN were laid during the Nicaraguan Revolution and the fall of Atanasio Somoza‘s dictatorial government. This was followed by a long battle to retain power against the Nicaraguan Contras — or the counter-revolution — which were propped up by the United States government.

Ortega's government and its years in power have continually elicited criticism, most notably in reference to the country's democratic process. One of the most controversial aspects of this last election was the nomination of Ortega's wife — now the vice president-elect — as running mate.

On the Latin American news blog Con Distintos Acentos (With Different Accents), researcher Renée Salmerón explores how best to understand the election results, as well as the complexities of the Nicaraguan government and the country's prospects for the coming years. The article interprets the statistics and points to specific data, but more importantly examines the way in which Nicaraguan democracy, for all intents and purposes, does not appear to unite its citizens around a common purpose:

Andrés Pérez Baltodano, a professor and investigator, refers to a prevailing notion in this country whereby there exists an “electoral democracy without social consensus”. Last Tuesday, La Prensa recalled that it has been ten years since the last debate between presidential candidates. The recently re-elected president did not attend this debate and, furthermore, has not appeared before the National Assembly since 2008.

Salmerón also highlights how the political discourse, which draws references from Nicaragua's recent past, is not managing to connect with the population, and is not resulting in greater participation:

The opposition and the government are mistaken. In this political climate, we have seen certain trends within the narrative of the opposition and a few analysts in their assessment of the government. These trends relate to the following factors: firstly, they link the political electoral context of the 1990s with the current one. Secondly, they compare President Ortega to dictator Anastasio Somoza […]. Thirdly, they affirm that there are armed civilians in the north of the country (rebels). Fourthly, and finally, they associate the Nica Act (Nicaraguan Investment Conditionality Act) with American politics within the context of the Cold War. These all allude to the past.

This discourse does not lead to dialogue, and it has not had a mobilising effect on citizens’ behaviour.

As far as the government is concerned, it has not known how to govern across the board, for both supporters and non-supporters. Citizens who benefit from social programmes and who join the Citizen Power Cabinets [local forms of government made generally by volunteer citizens] are mostly supporters of the FSLN. It has overlooked the historical sandinismo-anti-sandinismo schism which prevails at the heart of society, and which became apparent during the elections via the pro-government supporters vs. the abstainers.

Elections that do not build democracies

One of the areas of analysis pertains to a critical review of the elections. For Salmerón and her associates, there is more involved with building a democracy than merely holding elections. There are many variables, and representation remains limited; furthermore, if deliberation and discussion panels are not involved with the debates, there is the real risk that elections are merely a symbolic event with little real significance:

Nonetheless, the responsibility for not participating in the debates does not lie solely with the candidates. Neither the media nor universities have brought the candidates together to discuss government policies. And this is not good enough for elections. As McConnell (2009:310) suggests, we must consider to what extent holding “successful and regular” elections will be useful in forming a representative liberal democracy. Everything appears to point to the fact that this is not enough. If we have been talking about high approval ratings for months, and now the government has won with an absolute majority, why is it that we are still hearing criticism about skewed polling or farcical elections.

A government in times of peace, a shakeup of friends and enemies

Foreign intervention and armed conflict have not disappeared from the news. However, times have changed and today's greatest challenges relate more to internal disputes than external influences. For Salmarón, the challenge continues to be how to unite Nicaragua around a common purpose and how to overcome the limitations brought about by the lack of support from certain strategic allies:

The FSLN's partisan voters have achieved what they wanted: a party that governs in times of peace. It can no longer declare ideas of “imperialism” or “fierce capitalism”. It can no longer talk about its enemies. However what's more, it can no longer list its friends. It needs to be said. Let's stop messing around, the benefits derived from the relationship with ex-President Hugo Chávez have stopped. The country is not as productive as it has the potential to be.

Political polarisation has not disappeared. There is a sector which has its place in society. This is undeniable. The government faces many challenges, such as defending itself, tackling corruption and enabling transparency, inclusion and real socio-economic change.

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