Hurricane ADRIAN (Text)

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HURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU MAY 19 2005
THE HURRICANE APPEARS LESS WELL-ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGES THAN
IT DID EARLIER TODAY...WITH A LACK OF BANDING FEATURES.
HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL CONVECTION IS FAIRLY INTENSE...SUGGESTING
THAT IT STILL HAS A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE. CENTER FIXES...FROM
BOTH GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE PLATFORMS...ARE SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN BUT IT IS ESTIMATED THAT ADRIAN IS ONLY A SHORT DISTANCE
OFFSHORE. LANDFALL IS IMMINENT...AND THE CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN
RATHER RAPIDLY ONCE THE CENTER MOVES INLAND.
INITIAL MOTION IS SIMILAR TO THAT IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AS IS
THE TRACK FORECAST. ADRIAN IS EMBEDDED IN A SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING
CURRENT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE
FORECAST TRACK MOVES THE SYSTEM OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF
EL SALVADOR AND HONDURAS. SINCE THE CYCLONE IS QUITE SMALL...IT
MAY HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME SURVIVING THE PASSAGE OVER SUCH ROUGH
TOPOGRAPHY. NONETHELESS THE NHC FORECAST TAKES ADRIAN INTO THE
CARIBBEAN AND THEN INTO THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC. SHOULD ADRIAN OR
ITS REMNANT EMERGE INTO THE CARIBBEAN...INCREASINGLY STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE RE-INTENSIFICATION.
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO LOSE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND MERGE WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE
ATLANTIC.
NOTE...ONLY IF THE SYSTEM MAINTAINS TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS
THROUGHOUT ITS PASSAGE OVER LAND WOULD IT RETAIN THE NAME ADRIAN IN
THE ATLANTIC BASIN.
IT SHOULD BE REPEATED THAT THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM ADRIAN IS
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND
POTENTIALLY DEVASTATING MUD SLIDES OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRIAN OF
CENTRAL AMERICA.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/0300Z 13.4N 89.6W 70 KT
12HR VT 20/1200Z 14.4N 88.3W 40 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 21/0000Z 16.0N 86.2W 30 KT...OVER WATER
36HR VT 21/1200Z 17.7N 84.1W 30 KT
48HR VT 22/0000Z 19.2N 81.8W 25 KT
72HR VT 23/0000Z 22.0N 76.0W 25 KT
96HR VT 24/0000Z 25.0N 69.0W 20 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 25/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE
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