Severe storm forecasts receive new, detailed categories

New severe outlook starts in late October

Starting Oct. 22, the Storm Prediction Center will change the way they issue severe weather outlooks. Instead of using only three categories to rank the probability of severe storms, they will use a more detailed system, including five categories.

The current program uses the categories of slight, moderate and high to describe the chance of severe storms and tornadoes. Come late October, the forecasts issued by the Storm Prediction Center will include the categories of marginal and enhanced. In order of probability, the categories go from low to high in this order:

Marginal

Slight

Enhanced

Moderate

High

The new categories are being introduced in order to offer more precision when it comes to forecasting storms on the lower end of the probability scale. Remember, probability is not directly related to severity. Tornadoes are still possible in the marginal or slight risk, just fewer are expected.

All this may seem a little confusing, especially when other media outlets create their own risk categories and are not on the same page as the Storm Prediction Center. Stay tuned to KOCO-TV for consistent severe weather forecasts that are easy to understand.