Do you believe the PPP poll that shows Foxx up by just 2% in NC-05? The Democratic candidate is a teacher who is running an innovative campaign, yet hasn't received any IE help from the DCCC. This may sound familiar (shades of Kissell in '06), but Kissell was in a more marginal district than Carter is in.

I'm unsure as to whether this seat is actually competitive, which is why I've placed in the Potentially Competitive (R) category.

Do you believe the PPP poll that shows Foxx up by just 2% in NC-05? The Democratic candidate is a teacher who is running an innovative campaign, yet hasn't received any IE help from the DCCC. This may sound familiar (shades of Kissell in '06), but Kissell was in a more marginal district than Carter is in.

I'm unsure as to whether this seat is actually competitive, which is why I've placed in the Potentially Competitive (R) category.

Do you believe the PPP poll that shows Foxx up by just 2% in NC-05? The Democratic candidate is a teacher who is running an innovative campaign, yet hasn't received any IE help from the DCCC. This may sound familiar (shades of Kissell in '06), but Kissell was in a more marginal district than Carter is in.

I'm unsure as to whether this seat is actually competitive, which is why I've placed in the Potentially Competitive (R) category.

I dont think any Democrat would ever win NC-05 in its present form. Democrats drew it to keep Republicans out of NC-12 and NC-13 and pack as many Republicans as possible in NC-05. If Democrats were to redraw the district to include all of Forsyth county and cut out heavily Republican counties like Wilkes and Iredell like they did up until the early 1990s, Foxx would likely be toast.

Do you believe the PPP poll that shows Foxx up by just 2% in NC-05? The Democratic candidate is a teacher who is running an innovative campaign, yet hasn't received any IE help from the DCCC. This may sound familiar (shades of Kissell in '06), but Kissell was in a more marginal district than Carter is in.

I'm unsure as to whether this seat is actually competitive, which is why I've placed in the Potentially Competitive (R) category.

I can't find anything on PPP's website about it.

The only thing I can find is a Democracy Corps poll of NC back in September which did 100 people per CD (roughly) and had her up 2. I consider that garbage.

In case you don't notice, I did away with the toss-up/lean distinction because I was starting to find it annoying.

I will be keeping it for the House.

Stevens should be dead, but he's in Likely D here because I want at least one legitimate poll (I know I'll have to take Ivan Moore) to tell me this, just in case Alaska doesn't decide to give the F-U to everyone.

In case you don't notice, I did away with the toss-up/lean distinction because I was starting to find it annoying.

I will be keeping it for the House.

Stevens should be dead, but he's in Likely D here because I want at least one legitimate poll (I know I'll have to take Ivan Moore) to tell me this, just in case Alaska doesn't decide to give the F-U to everyone.

In case you don't notice, I did away with the toss-up/lean distinction because I was starting to find it annoying.

I will be keeping it for the House.

Stevens should be dead, but he's in Likely D here because I want at least one legitimate poll (I know I'll have to take Ivan Moore) to tell me this, just in case Alaska doesn't decide to give the F-U to everyone.

Kos already has R2000 doing an Alaska poll, if that's acceptable.

Yea, that's ok.

I should add that I'm little nervous about putting Colorado in Safe, because I suspect it'll be closer on election day than the polls presently are, but since the committees have pulled out and I can't see a way Schaffer actually wins, I'll stick it there. You may see me put this in Likely however, if I get actually nervous.

Senate has been filled in with the exception of 8 races (7R, 1D) that I want to rethink before finalizing.

Good to see that you had the guts to call VA for Mark Warner. I'm sure you really struggled with that pick.

I did finish Kentucky, Mississippi and Maine, and I could probably fill in Oregon if I wanted to. The rest are difficult.

Feel free to fill in Oregon. Merkley has closed with positive ads, while Smith is running only negative ads that play on the state's regional divide. The polling uniformly shows Smith below 45% and Brownlow is hurting him with his base.

Senate has been filled in with the exception of 8 races (7R, 1D) that I want to rethink before finalizing.

Good to see that you had the guts to call VA for Mark Warner. I'm sure you really struggled with that pick.

I did finish Kentucky, Mississippi and Maine, and I could probably fill in Oregon if I wanted to. The rest are difficult.

Feel free to fill in Oregon. Merkley has closed with positive ads, while Smith is running only negative ads that play on the state's regional divide. The polling uniformly shows Smith below 45% and Brownlow is hurting him with his base.

Senate has been filled in with the exception of 8 races (7R, 1D) that I want to rethink before finalizing.

Good to see that you had the guts to call VA for Mark Warner. I'm sure you really struggled with that pick.

I did finish Kentucky, Mississippi and Maine, and I could probably fill in Oregon if I wanted to. The rest are difficult.

Feel free to fill in Oregon. Merkley has closed with positive ads, while Smith is running only negative ads that play on the state's regional divide. The polling uniformly shows Smith below 45% and Brownlow is hurting him with his base.

CO is also an easy call now.

I can see why you're still debating AK, NH, NC, MN, GA.

The problem in Colorado is not the call. It's the margin.

Ah... Plaudits to you for guessing the margins. I (try to) pick the winners, not the margins.