Risks And Opportunities For 2017

Just a few days into 2017 and we can already say with a great degree of confidence that 2017 will be a historical year. Furthermore, I submit that 2017 will be the “Year of Trump” because one of roughly three things will happen: either Trump will fully deliver on his threats and promises, or Trump deliver on some, but far from all, his threats and promises or, finally, Trump will be neutralized by the Neocon-run Congress, media, intelligence community. He might even be impeached or murdered. Of course, there is an infinity of sub-possibilities here, but for the purpose of this discussion I will call the first option “Trump heavy”, the second one “Trump light” and the third one “Trump down”. Before discussing the possible implications of these three main options, we need to at least set the stage with a reminder of what kind of situation President Trump will be walking into. I discussed some of them in my previous analysis entitled “2016: the year of Russia’s triumph” and will only mention some of the key outcomes of the past year in this discussion. They are:

The USA has lost the war against Syria. I chose my words carefully here: what initially had many aspects of a civil war almost immediately turned into a war of aggression by a very large coalition of countries under the leadership of the United State. From the creation of the “Friends of Syria”, to covert support of the various terrorist organizations, to the attempts at isolating the Syrian government, the United States rapidly took control of the “war against Assad” and they now “own” that defeat. Now it is Russia which is in full control of the future of Syria. First, the Russians tried to work with the USA, but it soon became impossible, and the Russians concluded in utter disgust that the US foreign policy was run not from the White House or Foggy Bottom, but from the Pentagon. The Pentagon, however, completely and abjectly failed to achieve anything in Syria and the Russians seem to have come to the amazing conclusion that they can simply ignore the USA from now on. Instead they turned to the Turks and the Iranians to stop the war. This is an absolutely amazing development: for the first time since WWII the USA have become irrelevant to the outcome of a conflict which they greatly contributed to create and perpetuate: having concluded that the Americans are “non-agreement capable” (недоговороспособны) the Russians won’t even try to oppose US efforts, they will simply ignore them. I believe that the case of Syria will be the first and most dramatic but that in the future the same will happen elsewhere, especially in Asia. That is a situation which no American had to face and it is very hard to predict how Trump will adapt to this completely new situation. I am cautiously optimistic that, as a good businessman, Trump will do the right thing and accept reality for what it is a focus his efforts and resources on a few critical issues/regions rather than further pursuing the Neocon’s pipe dream of worldwide “full-spectrum dominance”. But more about that later.

Europe is in a state of total chaos. As I have written it many times, instead of the Ukraine becoming like Europe, it is Europe which became like the Ukraine: simply unsustainable and doomed to failure. The European crisis is a massive and multi-layered one. It is, of course, an economic crisis, but that crisis is made worse by a political one, which itself is compounded by a profound social crisis and, as a result, the entire EU system and the elites which used to run it are now facing a fundamental crisis of legitimacy. As for the European politicians, they are far more busy denying the existence of the crisis rather than dealing with it. The United States which for decades carefully fostered and nurtured an entire generation of spineless, narrow-minded, neutered and infinitely subservient European “leaders” is now facing the unpleasant outcome that these European politicians are as clueless as blind puppies and that they simply have no policy and no vision whatsoever as to what to do next: they are all locked into a short term survival mode characterized by a quasi total tunnel vision which makes them oblivious to the environment they are operating in. A continent which produced the likes of Thatcher, de Gaulle or Schmidt now produces vapid non-entities like Hollande or Cameron. Trump will thus inherit a de-facto colony completely unable to manage itself. And, just to make things worse, while that colony’s comprador “elites” has no vision and no policy, at the same time it is deeply hostile to Donald Trump and in full support of his Neocon enemies. Again, this is a situation which no American President has ever faced.

Russia is now the most powerful country on the planet. I know, I know, the Russian economy is relatively small, Russia has plenty of problems and just a year ago Obama dismissed Russia as a “regional power” while McCain referred to her as a “gas station masquerading as a country”. What can I say? – these two imbeciles were simply wrong and there is a good reason, plenty in fact, why Forbes has declared Putin the most powerful man on earth for four consecutive years. And it’s not just because the Russian armed forces are probably the most powerful and capable ones on earth (albeit not the largest ones) or because Russia has successfully defeated the USA in Syria and, really, the rest of the Middle-East. No, Russia is the most powerful country on earth because of two things: Russia openly rejects and denounces the worldwide political, economic and ideological system the USA has imposed upon our planet since WWII and because Vladimir Putin enjoys the rock-solid support of about 80%+ of the Russian population. The biggest strength of Russia in 2017 is a moral and a political one, it is the strength of a civilization which refuses to play by the rules which the West has successfully imposed on the rest of mankind. And now that Russia has successfully “pushed back” others will inevitably follow (again, especially in Asia). This is also a completely new situation for the next American President who will have to operate in a world where defying Uncle Sam is not only not a death sentence any more, but might even be seen as rather trendy.

China is now locked into a strategic alliance with Russia which is something unique in world history. Unlike past alliances which could be broken or withdrawn from, what Putin and Xi did is to turn their countries into symbionts: Russia basically depends on China for many goods and services while China depends on Russia for energy, defense, aerospace and high-tech (for those interested in this topic I would recommend the excellent White Paper Larchmonter445 wrote for the Saker blog on this topic: The Russia-China Double Helix). As a result, Russia and China today are like a type of “Siamese twins” which have separate heads (political independence and their own governments) but which share a number of organs vital for both heads. This means that even if Russia/China wanted to “dump China/Russia” in exchange for a rapprochement with the USA she could not do that. To my knowledge nothing similar has ever happened before. Never have two (ex-) Empires decided to remain separate but fully integrated into each other. No grand charter, no big alliance, no solemn treaty was ever signed to make this happens, only huge number of (comparatively) small(er) contracts and agreements. And yet they have quietly achieved something absolutely unique in history. What this means for the USA is that they cannot count on their favorite divide et impera strategy to try to rule the planet because that strategy simply cannot work any longer: even if the Russian and Chinese leaders got themselves into a heated dispute they could not undo what has now been done. The integrationist momentum between China and Russia could probably only be stopped by a war, and that is simply not happening. Right now Trump is making a lot of provocative gestures towards China, possibly in the hope that if the USA normalizes relations with Russia China would find itself isolated. But isolating China is just as impossible as isolating Russia, and provoking China is simply a non-starter. For the first time since WWII the next American President will have to come to terms that in the Russia-China-USA triangle it is the USA which is the weakest and most vulnerable party.

Iran is too powerful to be bullied or submitted. It is true that Iran is far weaker than Russia or China and that Iran is not a major international player. However, I would argue that Iran is a formidable regional superpower which can probably single-handedly take on any combination of regional countries and prevail against them, even if at a great cost. Just like Russia, Iran is protected by a perfect combination of geography and advanced armed forces. Oh sure, Iranian capabilities are not quite on par with US or Russian ones, but they powerful enough to make Iran an extremely tough and dangerous target to attack. Many years ago, in distant 2007, I wrote an article entitled “Iran’s asymmetrical response options” which is now clearly dated but primarily in the sense that since 2007 Iran has become even more dangerous to attack, be it by the USA, Israel or a combo of both. Would Russia and/or China go to war with the USA in case of a US/Israeli attack on Iran? No. But there would be very severe political consequences to pay for the USA: a guaranteed veto in the UNSC (even if US forces are targeted in the KSA or in the Strait of Hormuz), political, economic and possibly military support for Iran, intelligence support for Iranian operations not only in Iran, but also in Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere, an upgrade of the currently semi-official relations with Hezbollah and support for the Lebanese Resistance. But the main “weapon” used against the USA would be informational – any attack will be vehemently opposed by the Russian media and the western blogosphere sympathetic to Russia: this is exactly the scenario which the US and NATO fear so much: lead by RT and Sputnik, a US-bashing campaign in the social media. This is a new reality for 2017: we are not used to the notion that Russia also has any type of “soft power”, in this case political soft power, but the fact is that these Russian capabilities are both real and formidable and this is why the Neocons blame both the Brexit and the victory of Trump in the USA on the “Kremlin propaganda machine”. While there is no such “machine”, there is an active blogosphere and non-US media space out there on the Internet which seems to be powerful enough to at least encourage a type of “rebellion of the serfs” of the Neocon leaders of the Empire. The bottom line is this: the USA has lost its informational monopoly on the planet and the next US President will have to compete, really compete, to convince and rally to his views and agenda.

How will Trump deal with these fundamentally new challenges?

If it is “Trump down” then we will have something very similar to what we had with Obama: a lot of broken promises and lost hopes. In practical term, the USA will then return to what I would call the “consensus policies of the AngloZionist Empire”, which is what we have had since at least Bill Clinton and which every four years becomes “same old, same old, only worse”. If Trump is impeached or murdered we could witness an internal explosion of unrest inside the USA which would absorb most of the time and energy of those who tried to removed him. If Trump proves to be all talk and no action, we will go right back to the situation with Obama: a weak Presidency resulting in various agencies “doing their own thing” without bothering to check what everybody else is doing. This would be a disaster both inside and outside the USA. The most likely outcome would be a rather brutal, sudden and irreversible crash of the AngloZionist Empire. Should a “President Pence” ever happen the risks of thermonuclear war would immensely soar right back up to what they were before the election. That is by far the worst option for everybody.

“Trump light” is probably the most likely option to actually happen. Make no mistake, even though I call it “Trump light”, big things could still happen in this case. First and foremost, the US and Russia could decide to deal with each other on the basis of self-interest, common sense, realism and mutual respect. Just that could be quite revolutionary and a radical departure from the anti-Russian policies of the USA since Bill Clinton (and, really, since the end of WWII). However, the collaboration between Russia and the USA would not be global, but rather limited to some specific issues. For example, the USA and Russia could agree on joint operations against Daesh in Syria, but the US would not put a stop to the current US/NATO policy of escalation and confrontation against Russia in Europe. Likewise, the Neocon run Congress would prevent any real US-Russian collaboration on the issue of the Ukraine. This option would be far less than what some hardcore Trump supporters are hoping for, but still something infinitely better than Hillary in the White House.

While probably less likely, it is “Trump heavy” which could really usher in a fundamentally new era in international relations. In this case, Russia and the USA would hammer out a number of far reaching deals in which they would jointly take action to solve key issues. The theoretical possibilities are nothing short of amazing.

First and foremost, the USA and Russia could completely overhaul the European security by reviving and modernizing the cornerstone of European security: the Conventional Forces Europe (CFE) treaty. The US and Russia could negotiate a new CFE-III treaty and then use it as a basis to settle all the outstanding security issues in Europe thereby making a war in Europe de-facto impossible. Such a deal would be immensely beneficial to the entire continent and it would mark the beginning of a completely new era for Europe. The only real losers would be the western MIC and a few rabid and otherwise useless states (Latvia, Poland, etc.) whose only valuable export commodity is russophobic paranoia. However, as in every case when war, potential or actual, is replaced by peace, the vast majority of the people of Europe would benefit from such a deal. There would be some tough and delicate negotiations needed to finalize all the details, but I am comfortable that if Russia is given some real, verifiable security guarantees the Kremlin would order a stand-down of Russian forces west of the Urals.

Second, the USA and Russia could jointly take action to stop the civil war in the Ukraine, turn the Ukraine into a federal state with a large autonomy granted to all the regions of the Ukraine (not just the Donbass) and declare that a non-aligned and neutral Ukraine will be the cornerstone of the new European security system. If Russia and the USA agree on that, there is nothing the Ukie Nazis or the European could do to prevent it. Frankly, just as irresponsible and stupid teenagers don’t get to participate in adult decisions, the EU and the junta in Kiev should be told that they are now done creating a disaster and that adults have had to step in to stop the nightmare from getting even worse. I bet you that such an approach would get the support of many, if not most, Ukrainians who are now truly fed up with what is going on. Most Europeans (except the political elites, of course) and most Russians would welcome the end of the Ukrainian clusterf*ck (sorry, but that is an accurate descriptor).

The USA has lost a lot of relevance in the Middle-East. Still, they have enough power to actually make a useful contribution to the destruction of Daesh, especially in Iraq. While Russia, Iran and Turkey probably can impose some type of settlement of the war against Syria, having the American support, even if just a limited one, could be immensely useful. CENTCOM is still very powerful and to have a joint Russian-US campaign to crush Daesh could be most beneficial to the entire region. Having the Russians and the Americans finally intelligently and sincerely collaborate with each other would be a very new and fascinating thing to watch and I am pretty sure that the servicemen on both side would very much welcome this opportunity. The Middle-East does not have to be a zero-sum game, but the next US President will have to understand that the US are now a junior partner of a much bigger coalition. That is the price you pay for having an idiot in the White House for eight years.

Needless to say, if the Americans and the Russians successfully work with each other in Europe, the Ukraine and the Middle-East this would mark a dramatic departure from the “tepid war” which took place between Russia and the USA during the disastrous Obama Presidency.

Alas, there is the rather distressing issue of Trump’s catering to the US Israel Lobby and his stupid and delusional anti-Iranian rhetoric. If Trump keeps up with this nonsense once in the White House he will simply lock himself out from any real deal in the Middle-East. Furthermore, knowing the rabid russophobia of the Neocons, if Trump bows to their demands on Iran, he will probably also have to severely curtail the scope of US-Russian collaboration in Europe, the Ukraine and elsewhere. The same goes for Trump constant China-bashing and provoking: if Trump really and sincerely believes that the USA is in a position to bully China then he is headed for some very painful disillusionments. The time when the USA could bully or intimidate China has long past and all Trump would do is fail against China in the same way Obama failed against Russia.

This, in my opinion, is THE key question of the Trump Presidency: will the USA under Trump accept that the US world hegemony is over once and for all and that from now on the USA will be just one major player amongst other major players? Yes, America, the country, not the Empire, *can* be made “great again” but only if by giving up on the Empire and accepting to become a “regular”, albeit still major, country.

If the US establishment continues to operate on the assumption that “we’re number one”, “the US military is the most powerful in world history” or that the “USA is the indispensable nation” which has to “lead the world” then the Trump Presidency will end up in disaster. Messianic and imperialist ideas have always lead their carriers to catastrophic failure and the USA is no exception. For one thing, the messianic and imperialist mindset is always profoundly delusional as it always favors ideology over reality. And, as the expression goes, if your head is in the sad, your ass is in the air. One of the biggest advantages which Russia and China have over the United States is that they fully realize that they are in many ways weaker than the USA. And yet, paradoxically, that awareness is what makes them stronger at the end of the day.

It should therefore become a top priority of President Trump to ditch the infinitely arrogant attitude so typical of the Neocons and their Trotskyite forefathers (both physical and ideological) and replace it with an acute awareness for the need to only engage in policies commensurate with the actual capabilities of the USA. Fact-based realist politics have to replace the current imperial hubris.

Likewise, it should also become a top priority of President Trump to purge the US elites form the toxic cabal which has taken it over: just like the main threat to President Putin is the Russian 5th column, I strongly believe that the biggest threat to President Trump will be the Neocon-controlled US 5th column in the USA, especially in Congress, the media, Hollywood and the intelligence community. The Neocons will never gracefully give up or otherwise accept that the American people have shown them to the door. Instead, they will do what they have always done: engage in a vicious hate campaign against Trump himself and against those who dared vote for him. Right now, Trump is clearly trying to appease them by throwing them a bone here and there (Pence, Priebus, Friedman, Iran bashing, etc.) which, I suppose, is fair enough. But if he continues to zig-zag like that once in the White House then he doesn’t stand a chance against them.

Michael Moore has just called for “100 days of resistance” following the Trump inauguration. While Moore himself is more of a (very talented) clown, that kind of initiative can end up becoming trendy, especially amongst the thoroughly zombified US Millennials and the butt hurt pseudo “liberals” who simply cannot and will not accept that Hillary has lost. We should never underestimate the capabilities of the Soros agents to start a color revolution inside the USA.

The US ‘deep state’ is also a powerful and immensely dangerous enemy whose options to oppose a “Trump Heavy” outcome include not only murdering Trump himself, but also to create another 9/11 false flag inside the USA, possibly one involving nuclear materials, and use it as a pretext to impose some kind of state of emergency.

Finally, and as always, there are the banks (in a general sense, including insurances, investment funds, etc, – all the financiers basically) who will fight a re-sovereignization of the United States with everything they got. Normally, I use the expression “re-sovereignization” to describe what Vladimir Putin has tried to do in Russia since 2000: the process of wrestling the real power from a small trans-national elite, return it to the people of Russia and making Russia a truly independent and sovereign country. The same concept, however, also applies to the USA whose people have clearly become the hostages and the serfs of a small elite, actually less than 1%, which is in full control of the real centers of power. A lot of that control, most of it really, is concentrated in various financial institutions which really control all the branches of government in the USA. Some call them “Corporate USA”, or “USA, Inc,” but really we are dealing with financiers and not with corporations who actually make a living by offering goods and services. The real levels of corruption in the USA and probably higher than anywhere on the planet simply because of the immense sums of money involved. The corrupt parasites (literally) who run this money-making machine will do everything in their power to prevent a return to power of the American people and they will never allow “one man – one vote” to replace the current “one dollar – one vote”.

It is ironic, of course, that Trump himself, and his entire entourage, come from these financial elites. But it would be a mistake to simply assume that if a person comes from one specific milieu he will always like and support it. Che Guevara was a medical doctor from a fairly well-off family of Argentinian bourgeois. Oh, I am not comparing Trump to the Che! I am just saying that the theory of class consciousness sometimes has interesting exceptions. At the very least, Trump knows these people very well and he might be the ideal man to break their current monopoly on power.

Conclusion:

Making predictions for a year like 2017 when most outcomes depend on what a single person might or might not do is rather futile. At best, this is an exercise is simple statistical luck. Those who will make correct predictions will, of course, look good and those who predictions will not materialize will look bad. But, in reality, they are all currently equally clueless. This is why I chose to speak of risks and opportunities and to look at at least three rough “Trump variants”. Still, there are processes in which Trump and the USA are crucial or, at least, central, but there are others where they matter a whole lot less. So, in conclusion, I will hazard of few guesses and submit them to you with all the imaginable caveats about probably being wrong. This being said, here we go.

First, I think that there is a good chance that Russia, Iran and Turkey will succeed in stopping the war against Syria. The country will remain unitary, but with pretty clear zones of influence and with a government which will include Assad, but also representatives of the opposition. Syria is far too big and too diverse to ever enjoy the type of peace Chechnia enjoys today, so at best we can hope for the kind of semi-peace which Dagestan has endured for the past years. It won’t be perfect, not by a long shot, but the absolute horror will stop.

Second, I think that Poroshenko will lose power this year. The Nazi-occupied Ukraine has survived on a mix of momentum (there was still a lot of wealth left from the Soviet era) and western assistance. Both are now coming to a full halt. Furthermore, there are increasing signs that the Ukrainian armed forces are now so busy simply surviving in the field that they have become basically incapable of meaningful combat operations. Should some particularly deluded nationalist volunteer battalion or political leader order an attack on Novorussia the Ukrainians are likely to suffer a major defeat followed by a liberation of the currently Nazi-occupied territories of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions. And this time around, if that happens, the Novorussian will have the means to liberate Mariupol and hold on to it without being cut-off from the Donbass by a Ukrainian flanking counter-attack. Finally, if Poroshenko is replaced by even more lunatic elements Russia might decide to recognize the independence of the Lugansk and Donetsk Republics which, in turn, would inevitably result in a referendum in these republics to join Russia. EU politicians will have a fit, Poland and Estonia will declare a Russian invasion imminent, but Russia will simply ignore them all. As for Trump, he is most unlikely to do much about this either, especially considering that the Ukie Nazis were 100% behind Hillary and dismissed him as a total joke. The last and only chance the “Independent Banderastan” has to avoid this outcome is to finally fully and totally implement the Minsk-2 Agreement, to basically self-dissolve. Will the crazies in Kiev have the wisdom to understand that? I very much doubt it. But who knows, maybe God will take pity on the people of the Ukraine and give them the strength to get rid of the Banderite rot which has brought so much misery upon them.

That leaves me with one area of great concern to me: Latin America.

This has not often been noticed, by Latin American is the one realm of US foreign policy where Obama has been rather successful, at least if you support the subjugation of Latin American by the USA: Castro is gone, Chavez is gone, possibly murdered, Christina Kirchner is gone, President Dilma Rousseff has been overthrown in a parliamentary coup and it appears that the same fate will now befall Nicholas Maduro. Very significantly, Cuba has agreed to a deal which will give the USA a great deal more leverage over the future of the island-state. True, Evo Morales, Rafael Correa and Daniel Ortega are still in power, but the undeniable fact that the Latin American political heavyweights have fallen. Will Trump change the US policy towards Latin America? I very much doubt that, if only because “if it ain’t broke – don’t fix it”. And from an US imperialist point of view, the current policy ain’t broke at all, it is rather a success. I simply see no reason why Trump would decide to allow Latin American to be free and sovereign thereby reversing the almost 200 year old Monroe Doctrine. Freedom for Latin America will come at the end of a long struggle no matter who is in the White House.

So no, life in 2017 will be a far cry from life in a perfect world, but there is a better than average chance that 2017 might see some very significant and much needed improvement over the frankly disastrous past years. There is still hope that Trump might deliver and if he does, he might become on of the best US Presidents in many, many years. Whether Trump delivers or not, the world will further move away from unipolarity to multipolarity and that is an immensely desirable evolution. All in all, and for the first time in decades, I feel rather optimistic. This is such a weird and unnatural feeling for me that I almost feel guilty about it. But sometimes guilty enjoyment is also great fun!

Regarding Syria. …if Trump does not jump in to fight ISIS, As the US deep state Can bomb Syria to rubble while incidents accross Syria from poisoning Water supply to assassinations of officials occurs. At this point….Putin yields and Syria is in ruins with uncertain future Or….Putin makes sure US really bombs just ISIS and then leaves…respecting Syrian Sovereignty via UNSCR and Geneva. Saudi and Israel not liking the view as IRGC and Hezbollah get a big checkmark in the Win column after Aleppo was cleared out. I’m not so certain all those Goldman Sachs agents in Trump’s political circle Are going to give up on Pipeline and partition.

I think Putin negotiated with Erdogan that Turkey will not be bypassed in the future Iran Pipeline. The Saudi Qatar pipeline may happen in the future via negotiation, And here…both will pay Syria for damages in the conflict which both sponsored. It’s possible Trump may negotiate so that US oil concessions continue in Syria, Vs going to war against Syria to take that . Iraq can’t seem to get the USA to go away… If Syria let’s the US military have a presence in the country…..it will be to their Future demise.

serem00

i think the oil company’s will be distracted by bilions in oil contracts in russia once they lift the sanctions if the banks get wise they become a target they are america’s most wanted right now americans HATE giving money(socialism or corporat welfare) and all sides(rep and dem) have a target on the banks so if they try anything they get glass steageld real fast…

syria isnt going to let shit through syria from saud and qatar now they have been through the whole ordeal they have been going through and they syrian future after aleppo got cemented the jihadists are going to fall the only question is are the kurds coming peacefully or will they make an extra conflict

Brad Isherwood

The Future Eurasia Silk Roads opportune US oil giants concessions which give them a big seat at the table via energy and trade. Other corporate interests have options in Eurasia Silk Roads. The British Empire play of keep Russia and Germany divided may not work in the emerging technology age where Asia can race in and offer vehicles nearly as good as Germany or machine tooling. Engineering firms from Europe along with Law and Insurance are also option.

I’m surprised German business has not thrown Merkel out…they have lost wealth Volume and position in the game. The US has to decide if coddling the corrupt House of Saud and the Gulf States is worth everything to please Israel and the warmonger deep state.

Njordheim

That gas-filed that Qatar and Iran share will never happen or at list in the foreseeable future.

Ronald

Syria has its own huge off-shore gas that could be tapped into . Estimated by French geologists in 1947 to be on a par with Saudi’s . Maybe Assad could offer Trump a deal !

Njordheim

All deals goes through Putin. Period.

Red Tick Alert

This is an interesting article if you ignore some of the political rhetoric.

zzz I like reading southfront.org but those kind of articles are sheer propaganda and had nothing to do with common sense and ‘alternative’ journalism. BTW utterances like ‘Russia is the most powerful country on the planet’ are laughable. Be reasonable, man.

grumpy_carpenter

Actually Russia does hold some pretty good cards right now.

Aside from the energy sector Russia is rich in natural resources, including water which could easily be more valuable than oil in the future.

Russia has a vast arctic coastline in a world where in the near term the Arctic may be open to navigation and resource extraction.

Russia is in a dominant geostrategic position in Eurasia. As Asia begins to dominate the world economy Russia is going to be increasingly important.

The USA may have a larger, more powerful military than Russia but the real measure of a military is it’s effectiveness and right now Russia is using their military extremely effectively as a tool of Russian foreign policy ….. no other nation even comes close to what Russia has achieved militarily in the last 10 years and they’ve done it at a fraction of the cost of what it would take the US military to achieve the same results if the USA could even achieve those results.

postdante

OK, those are reasonable arguments, still it doesn’t change a thing in respect to the tone of the article (which means bullshit propaganda)

E.g. do you want to add some comment in regard to “Nazis” or the juicy epithets in reference to the (west) Europe?

I am definitely pro as for the Russia policy in Syria but rendering everything from the one-sided perspective (Russia as the new Prometheus) is ridiculous, untruthful and laughable.

No donation in this month from me for publishing such lunacies :) After this article I will be definitely more wary for more propaganda to come. —

dienders

Nazis are in Kiev, facts. If you fail to realize that, you are blind or worse. The rest of your comment is just pathetic.

postdante

You’re sure into the propaganda. Good luck with that.

dienders

Sorry you can’t handle the truth, you’re too indoctrinated, how ironic you talk about ‘propaganda’ lol……. but tell me – Right sector and Svoboda are NOT nazis?

postdante

Does Right sector or Svoboda rules in Kiev? Do they both represent the ukrainian people and the current government? Be realistic and do not count on someone falling for such cheap sophistry.

dienders

The current government is impossible without RS and Svoboda, they were the spearhead of fascist maidan ‘revolution’/rebellion, they were ISIS and al nusra of Ukraine (with ‘moderates’ behind to take the control) – same masters, same scenario like in Syria. Pity you fail to realize that. Their armed formations are still part of ukrainian armed forces (probably the most important parts – Azow f.e.). Porky and turchinov are at least fascists, if not open Nazis, no doubt there, including most of ukrainian MP. So you be realistic, nazis are in Kiev. Facts.

grumpy_carpenter

it’s all propaganda from all sides on the internet. The trick is to ignore the hyperbole and look for the gems amongst the chaff. Russians have been fighting the negative images and propaganda from the west since the revolution…..let the Russians to crow a little.

postdante

True. Still it doesn’t hurt to call the propaganda by its name, whether it’s Russian abreaction or the west MSM hypocrisy :)

grumpy_carpenter

Agreed

dutchnational

Using military power as a tool of foreign policy is a risky business as Hitler found out. We will see where this ship will flounder.

dienders

Every country in human history used military power as a tool of foreign policy (Louis the XIV’s cannons bore the inscription – Ultima ratio regum / final arguments of Kings)

postdante

We have certainly seen where the USA and it’s supporters ship floundered by executing it’s military power as a tool of foreign policy. I don’t expect Russia to do better in that regard eventually but one must admit that for now they’re quite effective.

grumpy_carpenter

Countries have militaries in case of war. War is politics by other means so all countries militaries are tools of foreign policy by design. Even if a country has a defensive military doctrine the military is still there to effect political will against a foreign power.

grumpy_carpenter

Hitler’s reach exceeded his grasp, in his invasion of Russia he never once achieved a campaign objective and his intelligence was abysmal….Putin so far has used military force judiciously and he limited the scope of his adventures to achievable goals.

Jesus

Do you know what Clausewitz said? War is a continuation of foreign policy by other means. When diplomacy fails, war follows. Hitler bit more than he could chew, and was in a hurry.

dienders

Why don’t you try to re-read and comprehend the text, not instantly making some hysterical, ‘patriotic’ ‘murica FY! conclusions based on first sentence…. let me help you: “Russia is the most powerful country on earth because of two things: Russia openly rejects and denounces the worldwide political, economic and ideological system the USA has imposed upon our planet since WWII and because Vladimir Putin enjoys the rock-solid support of about 80%+ of the Russian population. The biggest strength of Russia in 2017 is a moral and a political one, it is the strength of a civilization which refuses to play by the rules which the West has successfully imposed on the rest of mankind.” Is there something not true here?

postdante

Still, isn’t the conclusion (“the first sentence”) laughable? For sure it is, it’s a mind rape.

Yes, there is much bullshit in this article and no, I don’t think that Russia has a higher moral ground than the rest of the worldwide players. They worth each other.

I also love your stereotypic and boring sortie like “don’t mind these butthurt soros-paid trolls”.

This article was put under Analysis, not Opinion, where it should be in the first place.

dutchnational

Russin whet dream phantasy

Alberto Campos

You seem having read The Saker for the first time, so your ignorance makes you not guilty, boy.

Aquartertoseven

Hold on, hold on, now I’m pro-Russia but we shouldn’t be entertaining propaganda and fallacies. Russia is a banana republic, let’s face it, once the oil dries up, they’re screwed just like the Middle East. Putin’s held as the most powerful man in the world because it’s suspected that he embezzles billions of dollars from Russia; it’s believed, widely, that he’s wealthier than Bill Gates! That’s one of the reasons why he stays in power, so as not to risk losing his wealth. Again, I think he’s pretty boss, but let’s not bullshit, to any degree.

As for Iran, once Trump sets his sights on them, they’re screwed. Their military has floundered almost completely in Syria, against forces that completely lack air cover, that says a lot. In their desperation, before they buckle under the impending debt and regime change, the Saudis and their regional allies will probably start arming the Iranian Kurds and lead to a separation from Iran. Kurdistans popping up all over the place are the best ways to weaken their Shia-led enemies. Hell will continue to break loose.

dienders

Lol you are pro-Russian like Obama and McCain, that’s why your comment is full of laughable lies and dirty russophobic propaganda…. yes I do understand, you are still butthurt about your queen Hillary, but hey whoever says that a country with the largest nuclear arsenal in the world, country that strategically controls Euroasia, country that controls more than 1/8 of Earth landmass (with Kazakhstan 1/7!), including all resources not just oil, country that (according to msm) even controls the US president is a ‘banana republic’, whoever says something that dumb should suck bananas instead of making political comments.

What irrational fear? As I said, they’re extremely vulnerable! Landmass is irrelevant, as Kazakhstan shows.

dienders

AquartetoIQ7 I don’t care about your family tbh. ‘landmass is irrelevant’ but only if you are a clueless, low, low IQ troll.

dienders

AquartetoIQseven I don’t care about your family and their IQ tbh. ‘landmass is irrelevant’ but only if you are a clueless, low, low IQ troll. I doubt you know where or what Kazakhstan is, because it’s certainly not ‘irrelevant’ lol

Aquartertoseven

Dumb and now childish, my opinion of you plummets ever further.

dienders

Yes you are, you’re describing yourself perfectly AquartetoIQseven…. also boring, and utterly clueless….. btw my opinion about you can’t really plummet any further, it’s impossible to be any lower :D

John Whitehot

wonder how he’s gonna sleep at night

John Whitehot

yaya, you’re the usual Soros agent who says he’s pro-russian so that pro-russian listen to the shit you got to say. In the end, it’s all gonna fail, Soros will hopefully retire or die and you folks will all go play bowls and bridge in a multipolar world.

Aquartertoseven

How very Russian; any criticism and you must be a traitor, that’s the sort of attitude that resulted in repeated massacres of Russian civilians; you’ve slaughtered more of your own than any enemy, just for daring to have an opinion contrary to your own. Soros is extremely left wing, there’s no way that I can be anything but, surely! (I do seem to attract the low IQ trolls, don’t I!)

John Whitehot

in fact you have just admitted that you are not, so what the fuck is your point? That fake-russians or fake-pro-russians are not fake?

Aquartertoseven

Admitted that I am not what, Russian? When did I imply that I was Russian? So you can’t comment on something that is not a part of your country, what kind of stupid argument is that? Soros is American based, does that mean that you have no right questioning him then? I hate dealing with idiots John, I really do.

John Whitehot

OMG. You stated that you are “PRO-RUSSIAN” in your previous comment, only to criticize Russia in the following one. So what are you, a pro-russian dissident? who the hell you think you’re fooling? If you are NOT a RUSSIAN, and state being PRO-RUSSIAN, then logic and sanity imply that you don’t criticize Russia, otherwise you’re not PRO-RUSSIAN at all.

Aquartertoseven

Oh okay, your first sentence was very vague (“you are not”, how the hell am I supposed to read your mind to know what they referred to?? Let alone words I typed many comments ago).

So if I say that I’m pro-Russian, I can’t say one word about it that criticises it, that’s honest. I even have to adhere to propaganda and lies. It’s the logic of a five year old quite frankly, like supporting a football team but not getting annoyed when a player under performs; in your mind every player and every game that they play is perfect!

What were you, in the Stasi or something?? You’re really screwed up.

serem00

1 russia is stearing away from oil now they can and the dollar is purely petrol based… 2 widely believed is the same as highly confident on hacking proof or it didnt happen… 3 russians love putin cus he restored patriotism and he is seen as a strong leader russia was a colapsed state and the american companys where picking its copse clean he rebuilt it to a well fuctioning state and improved the live’s of russians better than in the soviet union… 4 iran is protected by russia and sinds it got us couped before and they see the syrian coup atempt they wont go down that road… 5 irgc forces have not participated in the syrian conflict as heavily as you think mostly iranian volunteers for iranian militia’s whitch arnt oficia army men also iran has a 500k strong army with 1.8mil reserve where the hell do you get the idea they threw all those men at the syrian jihadists??? 7 the kurds will be supressible if there would be a breakout of a kurdish freedom movement the kurdisch claimed area’s are also small..

Aquartertoseven

A lot of nonsense there really. There are thousands, perhaps tens of thousands of IRGC troops in Syria and so many have died while just mostly maintaining the status quo, particularly in southern Aleppo. Amid the mass retreat along that strip as well as countless failed attempts to reclaim the territory, countless have died.

500,000 soldiers with 1.8 million in reserve, sounds good in writing I doubt Iran is even capable of equipping them, let alone making them formidable; they’re probably like the Syrian army, who run away at the first sign of conflict and still do even after being trained by Russia.

Trump hates Iran, he will make life very difficult for them, particularly economically, so the resources required to suppress the Kurds may not be there soon.

Jesus

In regards to IRCG losses in Syria, they did suffer losses, however, the jihadis suffered a lot heavier losses. Russia made a statement that since their involvement in 2015, 100,000 jihadis had been killed. I would say IRCG losses would be 3-4% of that. IRCG needs battle experience, whenever you fight an urban war, you will suffer some casualties. Trump does not hate Iran, all he said that Obama made a bad deal with the Iranians.

Aquartertoseven

The jihadis have an endless supply of available recruits, from all over the world, losses to them are meagre. But Iran’s manpower is finite. Sure, they’ve got plenty of reserves but losing thousands of their best men is pretty bad. Even losing 3-4000 as you say, that’s a massive death ratio compared to how few IRGC are currently stationed in Syria. They’re cannon fodder on the frontlines, particularly in Southern Aleppo, not battle hardened elite badasses.

The SAA have been fighting for 6 years and they still claim to be almost entirely inexperienced! And like I said, the Iranians are only getting experienced in dying, not ideal for them.

HATES THEM. They hate Israel too so he double hates them.

Jesus

The jihadis might have an endless stream of recruits, however, Turkey is no longer an open avenue for them. Entering Syria will be very difficult. From what I read IRGC forces in Syria number 60-70,000, therefore 3-4000 casualties in an urban conflict is not out of line. Jaish al Fatah lost thousands of casualties in the summer when they tried to break the blockade in SW Aleppo. Their attacking force was reported to be about 12,000 men.

Trump is a business man, in business you do not hate anybody openly, ……who knows you could make a great deal with your enemy. Business transcends politics, Trump does not like zionist Jews very much, even though his son in law is Jewish. Not all Jews are zionists.

sólyomszem

iran is less protected by russia then syria. and look, the western countries do what they want. if usa or il will attack iran, russia will nor do anything. remember my words ;)

Bob

Russia and Iran are not formal allies – Iran wants to buy Russian military hardware. Russia was ambivalent about this for many years, with on and off again deals over S-300 SAM’s, wary of upsetting US and Israel. But since the multi-state NATO/GCC backed assault on Syria, a longtime Russian client, Russia has decided to sell hardware to Iran. Realizing that playing by the US’ rules when US aren’t ever going to reciprocate is waste of Russia’s time. But, Russia and Iran are not formal allies and Russia has no obligations.

Jesus

S. Arabia and the gulf states would become banana/sand republics, right, Russia is a lot more diversified economically and will do quite well. S. Arabia burned almost 200 billion from their cash reserves when oil dropped to mid 20’s. Russia’s reserves actually increased during the same period of time.

Aquartertoseven

Russia’s starting to try, after their little oil price war with the Saudis, which is affecting them quite heavily (although not as badly as SA), but it’s too little too late. The oil price looks to stay at around $50, and these two would ideally want them to be at least $100.

Jesus

The collapse of the oil price was engineered by the US in agreement with S. Arabia, lower oil prices made the rubble cheaper making Russian products attractive for export. Russia can do well with oil at $50 while US frackers and SA will suffer. SA pumps the oil cheaper, however, they waste a lot of their revenue on the war in Yemen, and supporting a large and lazy royal ilk. US frackers owe a lot of money to banks and $50 is not going to help them much. If US wants to become the largest producer of oil in the world, the price of oil will have to be 50% higher.

PZIVJ1943

I thought that oil low price war was launched by Saudis: to hurt Iran, Russia, and US frackers. But in the end they only hurt themselves. S Arabian policies are self defeating, what have they gained in Yemen or Syria? Only a huge loss of capitol reserves. I guess the spoiled royal family do not have to answer for their mistakes.

Jesus

US was behind the collapse of oil prices in 2015, they tried to play the same game they played against the Soviet Union, as punishment for Russia taking Crimea; it started with attacks against the rubble through capital flight and currency manipulation; since they were not very effective the oil weapon was used. Your understanding on the matter is the official sanitized version excluding US as the culprit on the matter.

sólyomszem

you told the same thing. russia is so week, that can not affect the economy of the world. and see, withoit oil money russia has giant problems. the usa without any problems destroyed the homeland production of oil. and look, their economy did not feel this step.

Jesus

Russia does not need to affect the economy of the world, the economy of the world is controlled by G7 led by US. Saker said, Russia was strong because Russia is able to play its own game uneffected by the world economy and those that control it. Russia defines its wealth with tangible assets, the world economy led by US defines wealth by their dollar defined system. For Russia to go against the world economy has not been easy, however, as time goes on, Russia is becoming self sufficient and immune from the world economy. The world economy still needs the Russian resources, while the Russian economy being self sufficient will need nothing from the world economy.

sólyomszem

Saker said, Russia was strong because Russia is able to play its own

game uneffected by the world economy and those that control it.

and this is not true! russia gave up syria for bluestream. russian reserves have been decreasing. putin reduced the money for army. a poor country is not able to do own policy independently upon world economy.

usa can, EU can, china partially can, russia not.

The world economy still needs the Russian resources, while the Russian economy being self sufficient will need nothing from the world economy.

if russian oil fall out, will happen nothing. on the other hand, without western technology russia is not abel to produce oil and gas. because of sanctions russia stopped a lot of procets in this industry. i grew up in socialist country, i know better the soviet union and russia better than you. i heard decades, that SU/russia bacame self sufficient. never happend and also today russia needs to import FOOD, medicaments, cars, telephones, etc. the russian industry is old, low capacities. and there is no money to change. until the oligarch in wagoons take out tzhe money from russia, this land will be looser.

Robert Ferrin

Yes you may have grown up in a socialist country and its warped you thinking,Russia exports some of its food wheat baby food to China etc and are making great strides to become self-sufficient as far as food goes. In fact a number of farmers from this area (N.Y. USA) made a number of trips to Russia to help set up their dairy operations, some of the most modern in the world as the milk flows from the milking parlors to the processing plant to refrigerated cars all at the same location, and in less than 24hrs are on the shelves in their super markets, and as far as oil the world will always need oil at least for the next 200 years that is and Russia has an abudance of both oil and gas and the sanctions ask the EU how that’s been going.>>

sólyomszem

only in last years was able to produce enough wheat. long decades imported. also in soviet union was the same situation. this was a big shame, because the best soil is in ukraine.

russia needs 10-15 years for the total independency of all sorts of foods.

and there is still the big dependence on field of light industry. that needs 30 years of hard work.

look, also here in SF was an excellent article, that the russian military industry was not able to produce bombs. and this is anly a little war in small country. will be a very hard work to enhance the priduction abilities of russian industry (all segments) to 10 times higher amounts. after that point will be russia strong.

i like russians, but in some featurs must change. both the people (less drink), and country (les oligarchy, etc..)

Robert Ferrin

All countries has its problems here in the U.S. we have our own oligarchy, on the Lay-Off List the other day it stated that 100 million are un-employed here due to the out-sourcing of jobs,you should come over and take a tour of the country with its rusted hulks of what use to be productive plants that once furnished well paying jobs, those people now work sometimes two to three jobs just to put bread on the table and has much to do with our $20 trillion in debt and with future liabilities that figure grows to $156 trillion, and we don’t even want to get into the trillions in dirivitives.No the only two sound countries in the world is China and Russia and with Putin at the helm of Russia it can’t help but become prosperous.!!

sólyomszem

jesus christ, russia is so week, that needs qatari money!

Jesus

That is your biased opinion, Qatari proxies were defeated by the Russian proxies in Syria, Russian cash reserves are higher than the Qatari cash reserves; the Qatari are suffering from the same financial bleed S. Arabia is suffering.

sólyomszem

arte defeated? really? south syria is held by them, east syria by isis. northwest syria also.

IF one country sells part of its key industry to the ENEMY, than this country is in trouble and is defated by economical methods.

the same situation with turkey. for blue stream putin abandoned everything.

russia is weak, and has no chance to win, if makes business with enemy.

Jesus

South Syria is going to be cleaned up, and ISIS in eastern Syria will have to contend with Syria, Turkey, Iran and Iraq. It is a matter of time until ISIS is crushed and becomes history.

Russia does what is best for her interests, Turkey is a useful ally for Putin, the blue stream will bypass Bulgaria and use Greece as a hub for gas deliveries in southern and Central Europe. EU abused Turkey, Russia made Turkey a partner along with Iran to stabilize the region.

You keep saying Russia is weak…..I think you are listening to fake propaganda, if a conventional war was to be fought today in Europe, Russia will smoke NATO. Look at what happened in Syria, a handful of aircraft supported by air defenses pushed the US coalition out of Syrian skies.

sólyomszem

shoygu said, the goals in syria were fulfilled. look, i listen to speech of russian leaders.

Jesus

You still have Syrian, Hezbollah, Iranian troops along with some Shia militias that will clean up isolated pockets of jihadis. The only entry point for jihadis is through Jordan, the Turkish border with Idlib is sealed, the jihadis in Ildlib are isolated.

sólyomszem

putin knows, that russia is only a mucrosuperpower. therefore removes forces, therefore allow israel to bomb syria. the russian army still is in devasted stage. the economy half collapsed. they are not able to produce 500 tanks yearly, or 100 airplanes. the commentators are naiv. i wish all good lucjs for russia, i prefer a multipolar world and no hegemony of any country. but russia is not a superpower.

John Whitehot

you forgot to add that Russia does not have a Trillions dollars national debt, hence it can fluorish without the need of basing its foreign policy over the zionist financial power directives. That’s what really needed to be a “superopower”.

Scott Miller

Russia’s greatest weakness is not military, nor even economic, it’s demographic. With 140 million Russians, it is the most populous European nation (Germany is a distant 2d at 80 million). But Russia’s population is aging and set to contract. About 50% of Russian pregnancies end in abortion and it has an HIV/AIDS infection rate that may soon make Uganda look like a paradise. Furthermore, Russia has a HUGE Muslim population, which unlike it’s ethnic European population is growing exponentially. This Muslim 5th column is a tinderbox waiting to ignite. Thus Russia’s “friendship” with Iran may be a bit disappointing in the long run. Putin has done much to restore what is left of the once great Russian Empire, but Russia is no Soviet Union (thank God). Russia is much better off than she was in the 90s. But she’s still got a lot of weaknesses lurking beneath the surface that need to be turned around. Putin is smart. He knows Russia has weaknesses, but he also knows how to play to Russia’s strength. But even strengths will only get you so far before the weaknesses start putting cracks in the facade.

John Whitehot

Demographic problems are solved in the long run – Russian ones are inherited from a period of chaos and absymal social conditions. Those conditions are steadily improving, along with all the major parameters influencing demographics – healthcare, employment, security. Also, Russia may have large numbers of muslim population, nonetheless, they are different from the ones mostly present in other EU countries as the largest part of them has russian citizenship since soviet times, while EU immigrants, especially in France and Germany, comprise a big number of young males, whose dissatisfaction and anger towards European values is brewing at unprecedented levels. It’s not in Russia that arabs have committed mass sexual-harassments against local women. All the terror acts against EU countries were made, or made possible by local arabs, the only terror act Russia has endured in these latest years is the bombing of the airliner in Egypt. Demographics are also showing very negative numbers in all the EU countries and the USA: birth rates of Europeans are steadily decreasing, while those of immigrants are increasing, and as they are “integrated” they will increase even more, in light of greater social security (same goes with latinos and others in the US). If russian demographics took a hit, it’s from the 90ies and it’s already reversing – the western countries outlook is much bleaker – they simply don’t have enough number of citizens (like as you said, Russia) to absorb the blow being given to them by the zionist, Sorosian elite in the form of massive unregulated immigration. It appears clear that these elites have a long term plan based on the destruction and humiliation of European and Christian ideals, especially in the fields of work rights, ethics and law. The hope is that the current, corrupted EU governments will be removed and replaced by people who actually has Europe interests at hearth. It is imperative that the population start seeing through the lies of the zionist funded mainstream media, and understand that Russia is the only country able and willing to defend European and Christian civilization in the world.

sólyomszem

yes, does not have. but in 3 months will not have any reservs. and after this timepoint …

Bob

Israel and Syria still remain in a state of war – so Russia would be foolhardy to get involved with that and it would be ridiculous distraction from their real purpose of intervening in Syria – to stabilize the government’s internal military position and roll back militants gains from their 2015 successes.

While of course there are some truths in the article and scenarios the article as such is completely nonsense as the underlying analysis is incorrect.

I will itemize :

1. Usa lost the war against Syria : USA did not fight a war against Syria. Usa fought a war in (parts of) Syria against IS and also, stupidly, armed and traed some islamo fascists. USA did nothave a real focus on what to achieve, but that might chnge next week.

2. Europe in total chaos. Brexit yes and a little Euro problems. Europe lacks clear leaders and focus. To call that total chaos and Europe an USA colony, that is just weird and invalidates the article.

3. Russia the most powerful country on the planet. That is a russian whet dream phantasy. A large country with a large army yes. Also a collapsing economy, a small and shrinking population, except for military industry a small industrial capacity, heavily dependent on high tech sources abroad, export depending on just gas and oil.

4. Russia locked with China. Yes, to some extent. Chinese economy remains dependent on exports to the West and its allies.Without those exports, chinese economy will collapse.

5. Iran : least important fact. Iran is hardly a regional superpower. In a straight war, it would lose against Turkey, Pakistan, India and KSA+GCC, all neighbouring countries.

dienders

blah, blah, US not just fought a war in Syria, the US IS the war in Syria, they are fully behind this entire tragedy along with Saudis, Qatar and Turkey. Europe is 70 years under a full military, intelligence, media US occupation, but you have been a slave for so long you honestly believe their tanks means your freedom or something… plus some russophoic nazi stereotypes about small (lol) and shrinking population (actually not shrinking like in EU/Netherlands) . Iran do not even border India, and there is no sane reason for a war between them.

dienders

blah, blah, US not just fought a war in Syria, the US IS the war in Syria, they are fully behind this entire tragedy along with Saudis, Qatar and Turkey. Europe is 70 years under a full military, intelligence, media US occupation, but you have been a slave for so long you honestly believe their tanks means your freedom or something… plus some russophoic nazi stereotypes about small (lol) and shrinking population (actually not shrinking like in EU/Netherlands) Iran does NOT even border India…

serem00

1 us lost its controll in syria meaning the groeps they supported and send in got trampeld (dont deny obama admitted they where training ‘rebels’) 2 the eu is seeing a rise of the right wing created by the refugee’s from all the war thorn country’s the us had to meddle in and all these right wingers are anti eu 3 russia is reliant on no one for thier tec. they produce thier own with a growing agraculture sector (largest exporter of wheat surpassing the us in 2016) and developing other industries. russia doesnt have population decline thier population has eqalised (for about 7 years now) the economy (even with sanctiones) has barely had a hit with slight decline (0.4%)and is expected to grow by 1% in 2017 and russia is curently steering away from oil now that it realises how vunrable it is after the oil crash besides russia has a whole range of natural recorces (being the biggest country on eart and all…) being the most powerfull country tho is debatable… 4 china being reliant on exports is erelevant… its the ties between russia and china whitch where highlited here pluss if china is reliant on western inports then so is the west to china’s exports if the west where to be cut off that would sway the world into economic armagedon 5. iran is the most powerfull player in the middle east right now taking all logistics into account they all country’s whitch might be willing to atack iran (india asolutely not they have enough tensions with china and pakistan…) pakistan cant even beat the taliban what makes you think they can beat iran… and in a straight war (without allied help from the us) iran has a huge lead on saudi arabia (and qatar put together) in military means without the us saud cant match iran. yemen case and point…

Jesus

KSA is doing so great in Yemen… are your statements for real? Iran is allied with Turkey, and has no intention of projecting any influence eastward. They want to be in Iraq, neutralize KSA and have access to Lebanon through Syria. Also Iran wants to be adversarial with Israel; Iran is a major player in the Middle East because of its size, population base, resources, technology and an array of proxies that operate 1000 miles away from its borders.

Jesus

The war in Syria perpetrated by US through proxies was about regime change. Please do not be naive.

1691

Your comments make me think that whoever gave the Man the ability to speak should have been more selective.

Athassino

“Russia is the most powerful country on the planet” Hahahahahaha!!

dienders

Well Albanania is certainly not the most powerful country, it’s not even a country, bunch of tribal savages worse than Afghanistan hahaha

sólyomszem

so much bullshits.

PZIVJ1943

But you must admit that Russia is a regional power and is trusted more than others in region. At least they are not trying to subvert and destabilize other countries like the west! This may be why Turkish-Russia-Egypt-Syria-Iran-Iraq relationship is improving.

sólyomszem

reagional power maybe. but i realize, russia has no friends, allies. becouse turky, egypt, iran iraq are not.

Njordheim

Countries has no friends – only interest.

sólyomszem

no, there are also friends. and interests make allies. russia has no allies. if nato would attack russia, no 1 country would come to help

Njordheim

First, NATO would never attack Russia. Let’s suppose that unthinkable and impossible happen, it such even Russia would never again fight a war on her own territory. Instead the countries that participate in the attack would be turned into glazed parking lots.

But again this is only hypothetical as NATO would never attack Russia because they know what would happen. Keep also in mind that it has been known for 200 years that Russian’s best friend is her ARMY and NAVY. Today I would add to this list a Strategic Space and Nuclear Forces.

boy, i tell you something: china is not friend. never was, never will be india is not friend, buys some weapons from russia. india is neutral. cuba is not friend. i remember, how betryed russian cuba in the beginning of 90ties. cuba was a friend, will be never kazachstan is not friend, there is only 1 friendly dictator. if falls, fall kazaschstans coopereation, too. belarus is comrade, not friend. belarus helps in nothing. friendly country, but useless. america has allies. and these allies are strong. america has friends in europe, asia and oceania.

Njordheim

Russia is more then regional power. You are regurgitating the “crap-talk” uttered by Obomber’s Hussein, who later withdrew form that statement and called Russia a Great Power.

PZIVJ1943

Is problem with semantics? You may say Russia is regional, great or supper power! I do not listen to the “crap talk” that you refer to. My opinion is posted above. Does pro Russian stance upset you?

Njordheim

With understanding that regional means localized (with limited scope) and “great’ is much more than that, how could this be a trigger for your conclusion that your “pro Russian stance upset me” ?

PZIVJ1943

Russia is a great power, and holds the largest country “region” on the globe. Crimea was taken with much blood shed in WW2 and is theirs. I do not care for propaganda from either side. But stay tuned for a good discussion here.

Njordheim

Wrong. Saker’s analyzes are always good and right on the money.

sólyomszem

you can believ in angels. your choice. i like the reality.

Njordheim

What is not real in what he said above? Please be specific.

dienders

In your mouth.

sólyomszem

:DDDDDDD

Njordheim

Great summary! Saker’s analyzes are always right on the money.

Bob

Trump is brash guy – but having the Neo-Cons in Congress and their think-tanks, the MSM media and the intelligence services all lined up against him, and actively trying to legitimize him, before he even gets sworn in is unprecedented, and that kind of pressure is bound to take its toll. It’s a soft coup attempt at this point, but what comes next?

Red Tick Alert

What an excellent article; Bravo.

Alberto Campos

Lots to say about this article but I just comment one little point:

“there is a good chance that Russia, Iran and Turkey will succeed in stopping the war against Syria” Turkey will never stop anything, she’s just trying to postpone peace in Syria. Russia knows it and is also “using” the Turks with the carrot of the pipeline.

“a government which will include Assad, but also representatives of the opposition” The Syrian has ALREADY people from opposition parties in the government. Political formations that run in the If you mean FSA or any virtual reality party or even the headchoppers, forget it.