The survey results clearly show that American voters, regardless of party affiliation, ideology, and religion, trust Israel in a peace agreement to protect the freedom of religion for all faiths and that Israel has the right to protect itself with defensible borders.

Conversely, American voters don’t trust the Palestinian Authority in any future agreement to protect the freedom of religion for all faiths.

For that reason there is across-the-board support for Jerusalem remaining united under Israeli sovereignty.

The survey results also illustrate that these key Middle Eastern issues are important presidential election issues and that the voters are more likely to support a candidate for president who stands by Israel’s side in supporting a united Jerusalem and defensible borders for Israel.

Key Findings

The September 11 attacks have made the majority (58%) of American voters more sympathetic with Israel’s struggle against suicide bombings and other forms of terrorism. Specifically, over three-quarters (78%) of American Jewish voters are more sympathetic towards Israel and the results clearly show the majority of all American voters, regardless of party, ideology, or religion, are more sympathetic with Israel’s struggles against terrorism. In particular, this sentiment grows among Republicans, Independents, and conservatives.

Did the September 11 attacks make you more sympathetic or less sympathetic with Israel’s struggle against suicide bombings and other forms of terrorism?

Party

Ideology

Religion

Total

Rep

Dem

Ind

Lib

Mod

Cons

Protestant

Catholic

Jewish

More

58

61

54

60

55

54

65

58

58

78

Less

13

12

16

8

16

15

10

12

17

3

No Diff

24

22

24

27

25

25

23

25

21

11

Don’t Know

5

5

6

4

4

8

3

6

4

8

When given the facts, the majority (59%) of voters don’t believe the Palestinian Authority can be trusted in a future agreement to protect freedom of religion for all faiths. This majority opinion of distrust is clear across the board. Specifically, the distrust of the Palestinian Authority protecting freedom of religion for all faiths significantly increases among Republicans, conservatives, and Jewish voters.

Between 1948 and 1967 Jordan controlled the holy sites of Jerusalem and did not permit freedom of worship to all faiths. Since 1967 Israel has controlled the holy sites of Jerusalem and has permitted freedom of worship. Do you think the Palestinian Authority can be trusted in a future agreement to protect freedom of religion for all faiths?

Party

Ideology

Religion

Total

Rep

Dem

Ind

Lib

Mod

Cons

Protestant

Catholic

Jewish

Yes

18

13

21

18

22

19

13

18

18

14

No

59

69

52

57

54

56

69

58

60

78

Don’t Know

24

18

27

26

24

25

18

24

22

8

Nearly three-quarters (73%) of all voters agree that “under a future Arab-Israeli agreement, Jerusalem should remain united under Israeli sovereignty, with freedom of religion for Christians, Muslims, Jews and all other faiths.” Only 9% disagree with that statement. Clearly, American voters trust Israel over the Palestinian Authority to protect freedom of religion.

Do you agree or disagree with the following statement? “Under a future Arab-Israeli peace agreement, Jerusalem should remain united under Israeli sovereignty, with freedom of religion for Christians, Muslims, Jews and all other faiths.”

Party

Ideology

Religion

Total

Rep

Dem

Ind

Lib

Mod

Cons

Protestant

Catholic

Jewish

Agree

73

77

70

69

72

70

79

73

73

89

Disagree

9

7

11

8

9

11

7

8

11

8

Don’t Know

18

16

18

23

19

18

14

18

16

3

After hearing the facts, 3 in 5 (60%) voters are less trusting of giving the Christian holy sites of Jerusalem to the Palestinians. This majority sentiment crosses all voter segments and reiterates the clear distrust of the Palestinian Authority.

Since the start of the Palestinian Intifada, the Tomb of Joseph in Nablus, the Church of the Nativity in Bethlehem, and the ancient synagogue of Jericho were ransacked or desecrated by the Palestinians. Have these events made you more trusting or less trusting of giving the Christian holy sites of Jerusalem to the Palestinians?

Party

Ideology

Religion

Total

Rep

Dem

Ind

Lib

Mod

Cons

Protestant

Catholic

Jewish

More

5

5

4

5

5

4

4

5

6

3

Less

60

68

55

60

55

60

69

60

65

69

No Diff

15

9

19

17

18

16

12

14

13

8

Don’t Know

20

18

22

18

22

20

16

20

16

19

In regard to any future peace agreement, the majority (54%) of all voters believe that Israel should be entitled to defensible borders, while only 16% think Israel should be forced to return to the boundaries of 1967. The majority support of Israel’s right to defensible borders increases among Republicans, conservatives, and Jewish voters.

Do you agree with the position that in any future peace agreement, Israel should be entitled to defensible borders OR do you agree with the position that Israel should be forced to return to the boundaries of 1967, when Israel was eight miles wide at its narrowest point and came under attack?

Party

Ideology

Religion

Total

Rep

Dem

Ind

Lib

Mod

Cons

Protestant

Catholic

Jewish

Defensible

54

60

49

55

50

51

61

55

56

75

1967 Borders

16

12

19

14

16

19

13

16

17

8

Don’t Know

30

27

32

31

33

30

26

30

28

17

The majority (52%) of all voters would be more likely to support a presidential candidate who stood by Israel’s side in supporting a united Jerusalem and defensible borders for Israel. Only 13% would be less likely to support such a candidate. These results indicate that standing by Israel in supporting a united Jerusalem and defensible borders for Israel is an important presidential election issue that can garner voter support for a candidate. The voter support increases among Republicans, conservatives, and Jewish voters.

Would you be more likely or less likely to support a presidential candidate who stood by Israel’s side in supporting a united Jerusalem and defensible borders for Israel?

Party

Ideology

Religion

Total

Rep

Dem

Ind

Lib

Mod

Cons

Protestant

Catholic

Jewish

More

52

60

47

49

46

45

64

54

49

78

Less

13

9

16

13

16

17

9

12

14

11

No Diff

21

18

21

26

25

25

15

21

23

6

Don’t Know

14

13

16

12

14

14

12

14

14

6

Methodology

This national survey of 1,000 likely American voters was conducted on February 23-24, 2004. All interviews were conducted via telephone by professional interviewers. Respondent selection was at random within predetermined geographical units, which reflect actual voter distributions in a presidential election. The accuracy of this survey of 1,000 likely American voters is +/- 3.1% at the 95% confidence interval.

* * *

John McLaughlin, founder of McLaughlin and Associates, has worked professionally as a strategic consultant and pollster for twenty years.