Jeff Petry and Devan Dubnyk received two-year contracts yesterday moments before the NHL announced that Sam Gagner was one of 16 players who filed for arbitration. Much of the early reaction from fans and the media was that Petry was a great signing, while Dubnyk got overpaid. I agree Petry's deal was good, but I'm not sold that Dubnyk was that bad of a contract.

Everyone likes to trot out comparables and that makes sense, but we can only use them as talking points, because no two situations are the same.

In the last month Dubnyk along with Tuukka Rask, Cory Schneider and Ondrej Pavelec have all received new deals.

Pavelec: 5 years at $3.9 million/season.
Schneider: 3 years at $4 million/season.
Dubnyk: 2 years at $3.5 million/season.
Rask: 1year at $3.5 million.

Instantly many suggested that Dubnyk wasn't in the same category as Schneider and Rask due to their records, SV% and GAA. If you only look at their records you are correct in assuming they are better, but when you look a bit deeper I'm not sold that the Oilers grossly overpaid Dubnyk.

In the past two years Rask averaged 28.5 shots per game, Schneider 28.6, Pavelec 29.6 and Dubnyk 30.2. Of course shots on goal don't accurately reflect quality scoring chances, but one could say without much argument that the Jets/Thrashers and Oilers likely gave up more quality chances than the Bruins and Canucks.

What I found interesting is that Dubnyk has essentially the same EV SV% as Rask. The difference in their SV% came mostly on the PK.

Last year the Oilers spent 505:12 on the PK, 5th most in the league. Boston spent 422:46 on the PK.

When you look at Rask and Dubnyk's EV numbers I can see why Dubnyk received a similar contract.

Schneider had great numbers in Vancouver. Statistically he is the best of the four, and he has the biggest cap hit. However, last year he only started three or more consecutive games twice. No one knows how he will react when he has to start 50 or 55 games.

I think there was just as much of a risk in giving Schneider three years at $4 million as there was giving Dubnyk two years at $3.5 million. Both teams handed out the money hoping they will both be able to start 55-60 games.

If you take a quick look across the league you will see that if Dubnyk can maintain, or improve, his .915 SV% and start at least 50 games his contract won't be that out of line.

Here are last year's SV% leaders and their 2013 cap hit.

Player

GS

SA

GA

GAA

Sv

Sv%

2013 cap hit

Mike Smith

67

2066

144

2.21

1922

0.930

$2 million

Henrik Lundqvist

62

1753

123

1.97

1630

0.930

$6.87

Jonathan Quick

69

1863

133

1.95

1730

0.929

$1.70

Jaroslav Halak

46

1211

90

1.97

1121

0.926

$3.75

Pekka Rinne

72

2153

166

2.39

1987

0.923

$7.00

Kari Lehtonen

59

1739

136

2.33

1603

0.922

$3.55

Miikka Kiprusoff

68

2040

162

2.35

1878

0.921

$5.83

Jimmy Howard

57

1496

119

2.13

1377

0.920

$2.25

Tim Thomas

55

1659

132

2.36

1527

0.920

$5.00

Roberto Luongo

54

1577

127

2.41

1450

0.919

$5.33

Niklas Backstrom

45

1299

105

2.43

1194

0.919

$6.00

Jose Theodore

51

1502

125

2.46

1377

0.917

$1.50

Tomas Vokoun

46

1299

108

2.51

1191

0.917

$2.00

Carey Price

65

1914

160

2.43

1754

0.916

$6.50

Ryan Miller

60

1788

150

2.55

1638

0.916

$6.25

Antti Niemi

68

1865

159

2.42

1706

0.915

$3.80

Cam Ward

68

2143

182

2.74

1961

0.915

$6.30

Craig Anderson

60

1917

165

2.84

1752

0.914

$3.18

Devan Dubnyk

42

1380

118

2.67

1262

0.914

$3.50

Evgeni Nabokov

41

1172

101

2.55

1071

0.914

$2.75

Marc-Andre Fleury

64

1768

153

2.36

1615

0.913

$5.00

Semyon Varlamov

52

1564

136

2.59

1428

0.913

$2.83

Jonas Hiller

73

2021

182

2.57

1839

0.910

$4.50

Nikolai Khabibulin

40

1114

100

2.65

1014

0.910

$3.75

Ilya Bryzgalov

57

1554

141

2.48

1413

0.909

$5.67

Martin Brodeur

59

1472

136

2.41

1336

0.908

$4.50

Ondrej Pavelec

67

2036

191

2.91

1845

0.906

$3.90

Corey Crawford

55

1507

146

2.72

1361

0.903

$2.67

Mathieu Garon

44

1191

118

2.85

1073

0.901

$1.30

Steve Mason

45

1355

143

3.39

1212

0.894

$2.90

PETRY GREAT DEAL

Petry's contract looks like a "great value" deal for the Oilers. Petry only has one full NHL season on his resume, but he really improved in the 2nd half of last season.

In the 43 games in 2012, Petry averaged 23:13 minutes. tallied 20 points and was a -5.

He was much more physical in the latter part of the season, and he found ways to use his excellent skating abilities to his advantage. Petry and Smid become a solid pairing, but Petry needs to shoot the puck more. He only had 111 shots and two goals. He has a decent shot and he needs to use it more effectively, but at $1.75 million he is a bargain.

GAGNER TO ARBITRATION

Gagner is one of 15 players who could go to arbitration. David Perron filed, but he already signed a four-year extension with the Blues moments after filing.

The list doesn't have any star players, but Gagner, Versteeg, Quincey and Oshie will likely garner the most money.

Nick Bonino, Anaheim Ducks

Jamie McGinn, Colorado Avalanche

Richard Bachman, Dallas Stars

Mark Fistric, Dallas Stars

Kyle Quincey, Detroit Red Wings

Sam Gagner, Edmonton Oilers

Kris Versteeg, Florida Panthers

Raphael Diax, Montreal Canadiens

Sergei Kostitsyn, Nashville Predators

Mark Fayne, New Jersey Devils

Anton Stralman, New York Rangers

Kaspars Daugavins, Ottawa Senators

T.J. Oshie, St. Louis Blues

T.J. Galiardi, San Jose Sharks

Dale Weise, Vancouver Canucks

Realistically only three or four players will go to arbitration, with the rest will likely coming to an agreement prior to their arbitration date. I suspect Gagner will recieve between $3.1-$3.5 million, but I'm more curious to see how long of a deal he receives.

Gagner is two years away from being unrestricted. He turns 23 in August and it is still a mystery as to what type of player he can be. Gagner has shown flashes that he could be a top-end #2 centre. He has excellent offensive instincts, he competes hard and he really wants to win and improve as a player.

Gagner has averaged 44 points over his five seasons, 49 if you prorate his seasons, and whether you want to admit it or not he is a bonafide 2nd line centre. Very few centres average 45 points a year in today's game, and considering he's only 22 you wonder if he'll become a 50-55 point player or better over the next five years.

The real question isn't how much Gagner will get from an arbitrator or the Oilers, but is he the longterm answer as a 2nd line centre in Edmonton. Of the Oilers skilled forwards only Taylor Hall is over six feet, and history shows you can't win without some size in your top-six.

Gagner still wants to improve his footspeed, but I suspect he'll need to become a better two-way centre if he wants to stay in Edmonton long term.

Signing Gagner to a three-year pact might be the best strategy for the Oilers. They lock him up three years, which is ample time to find out exactly what type of player he'll be, and it also makes him more attractive on the trade market, if they choose to take that route.

I could see a three-year deal worth $9.6 million.

One of Canada's most versatile sports personalities. Jason hosts The Jason Gregor Show, weekdays from 2 to 6 p.m., on TSN 1260, and he writes a column every Monday in the Edmonton Journal. You can follow him on Twitter at twitter.com/JasonGregor

Gagner is a 5 yr veteran... with 40+ points in each year. Arbitration could get him something close to the $4.00 range. I guess its his choice to go through the procedure. Can't really blame him as it seems every other day he is being traded for a D man.

I'd have no problem with that number if Dubnyk had proven he's a #1 goalie. So far we think he might be one. He's making almost as much as Halak and I know which of the two I'd rather have in our net.*

*Hint: Rhymes with Balak.

haha Hint taken. I like the cut of your jib sir.

Id argue that when Halak was signed he relatively was in the same spot Dubnyk is in now. Unproven to a point. And now that Halak has proven his worth, he is a bargain at his current contract. Here is to hoping Dubnyk does the same. His numbers on a horrible team at least suggest he has a chance to be.

The two signings make sense to me when some other details are taken into account.

Dubnyk's dollar amount certainly makes sense when taken as an industry standard. Even more so when one considers that Dubnyk's backup by season's end is not going to be Khabibulin.

As for Petry, this contract still leaves him as an RFA at the end of it. In which case a long-term contract now only buys RFA years, while a long-term contract two years from now, though more expensive, not only gives the team more time to hedge their bets on him as a player and means that the next contract buys the more productive UFA years.

There are also rumblings that Getslaf is on the market and I would much sooner see him than Dubinsky.The guy is a proven winner,killer on face offs and tough as nails.Speakings of Nails he would look great on Getslafs wing.Gagner,peckamOmark and a pick might get it done.

There are also rumblings that Getslaf is on the market and I would much sooner see him than Dubinsky.The guy is a proven winner,killer on face offs and tough as nails.Speakings of Nails he would look great on Getslafs wing.Gagner,peckamOmark and a pick might get it done.

Nobody wants Peckham. Scratch his name off that list and add Tyler Pitlicks and then you might have a deal.

DSF, I would like to think you are just trolling and not as unhappy as you appear. Start small and see if you can smile once a week and then take it from there. As for the Oilers I love how they are handling things and soon I will wear the colours with 1980's pride again.

Boxman, the problem is that even if the Oilers put a string of 4 cups in 5 years together DSF would be upset that no one scored 215 points in a season or he would focus on the 15 games they lost and not the 67 games they won.

Just like a cranky old neighbor, some guys can't be made happy. I had to ask my dad if he was DSF because he's the same way. You just have to learn to laugh at them but love them anyway.

There is nothing to suggest he would have taken a 2 year deal at 2.5. I'd suspect he'd have taken the market value 2.5 on a one year. Then next summer he's a UFA and you're back to square one and he holds all the cards. It's not like he signed a five year 5.25 million dollar contact.

For me, the dollar value is irrelevant as it's not my money and it wont affect the teams ability to keep the young core together - we don't have cap issues and the contracts wouldn't keep the players from being traded if required. They are two young players that have all the arrows pointing in the right direction and two years keeps them hungry.

Boxman, the problem is that even if the Oilers put a string of 4 cups in 5 years together DSF would be upset that no one scored 215 points in a season or he would focus on the 15 games they lost and not the 67 games they won.

Just like a cranky old neighbor, some guys can't be made happy. I had to ask my dad if he was DSF because he's the same way. You just have to learn to laugh at them but love them anyway.

*big hug sent to DSF*

You know the Oilers have missed the playoffs six years in a row and are working on seven, right?

We need a big line physical long term (3plus years)center this year if we intend on climbing in the standings . Our youth deserves that, or their could be trouble down the road signing these elite talents . Priority one . Second priority is defence . Hopefully first priority will be on board for start of season . Defence should be better than last year but still could use a top notch talent .

Seguin , Evander Kane a possible target ? Nash and Getzlaf would be far more expensive i would think . For the price of the latter two , i'd prefer a stretch for Toews as unlikely it is we could pry him from the Hawks .

Too bad Gagner was not so streaky , and slow starter each season . Kane(Chicago) worth persuing to help Gagner ?

dubbys contact is ok,term is great let him prove himself as there is not lots out there.bad goalie contracts?depietro,luongo,ask the flyers about bryzgalaaf!now we need tamblowe to get off his butt and make a trade or two,cause oil fans are not watching another last place finish,we just need to teach tamblowe that you do not start a trade by saying "we are pleased to select",its probably making other gms hang up!!!!!!!!

@DSF
That's a great point that they've missed the playoffs for, going on, 7 years. But I'm not talking about the Oilers. I'm talking about how we all need to show you love.
Even cranky neighbors need to be cared for.
*HUGS*

REFLEXIONS ? DEJA-VUE ? Meeting the crossroads . Last time we made playoffs we did it with many players who wanted out after our big run . We did not recover . If we did it again , i believe we could recover with our tremendous youth this time . Longer term benefits than just a rental and perhaps time to trade that type before the exodus rather than get nothing for it . Perhaps maybe two players like that might be worth the risk-reward ? Opens up some new alternatives even though Tams seems committed to players on a longer term basis . It worked for us once , it may work again with less after effects this time .

You are definitely on the right track. Nobody knows what has turned DSF into such a negative Nancy but it is clear he needs to be surrounded by positive caring people to turn this around. *HUGS* for you DSF.

I don't like the comments being edited by the moderators. If someone is posting inappropriate material, their comment should be removed and their account should be suspended. If the moderators feel that someone posted something that in their opinion is dumb or childish, they shouldn't be editing posts. Online forums are never going to be a perfect science, but putting words in other peoples mouths isn't right. If someone is only creative enough to come up with "Fist", why not post a response to that comment Jason, rather than changing the original post?

Is this an over payment? Remember you need to give something to get something...

Yes, it's an overpayment. Ducks are looking for a 2nd line Center and Gagner would fit perfectly there. For some reason they want to unload Ryan, who's a 30+ goals big winger.
This could be a match made in heaven, since Oilers want to try Hall at center. Can you imagine Ryan-Hall-Eberle followed by Hemsky-Nuge-Yakupov

I agree we would have to give up something on top of Gagner to get Bobby Ryan, but it would have to be something smaller, like next year's 2nd rounder+Mark.