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This short week we'll get earnings reports from another 10% of SP 500 companies. I expect plenty of pure speculation about the state of the market. This commentary will have a broad theme, with pundits asking: is there a new message from the markets?

Successful investing doesn't need to be too complex or sophisticated. It all comes down to relying on time-proven return drivers to make investment decisions based on solid statistical evidence as opposed to emotions and speculation.

There is no way to know for certain how deep or long-lasting a market correction will be, but some indicators have a solid track record in terms of predictability over the long term. Credit spreads are particularly effective in that regard.

Equities bottomed early on Dec. 26, and rocketed higher, partially undoing the damage for the Christmas Collapse. The Dow managed to tack on about 1500 points to its low, and I suspect equity bulls will enter 2019 limping but relatively optimistic.