000
FXUS61 KCAR 031823
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
123 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. A FAST MOVING
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD TOWARD THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
120 PM UPDATE: DECIDED TO BOOST THE AFTERNOON HIGHS BY A FEW
DEGREES AS SOME READINGS ARE APCHG THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS FOR
TODAY. THE MARCH SUNSHINE HAS HELPED W/THE WARMUP. NO OTHER
CHANGES NEEDED ATTM.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. OVER-
RUNNING SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SNOW COULD MIX WITH OR CHANGE
TO RAIN IN COASTAL AREA LATE TONIGHT BUT EXPECT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. WILL USE PRECIPITATION
TYPE FROM THICKNESS TOOL RUN ON 50/50 BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS.
WILL ALSO USE SNOW ACCUMULATION FROM THICKNESS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS.
FOR QPF... POPS AND SKY CONDITIONS WILL BLEND THE NAM... GFS AND
ECMWF. HAVE USED THE GMOS FOR WINDS. HAVE MANUALLY ADJUSTED THE
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINTS. WILL ISSUE ADVISORY FOR SNOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING
TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A WARM AND WINDY DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GET ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA
RANGING FROM THE 30S ACROSS THE NORTH TO THE 40S DOWNEAST. WEST
WINDS WILL BE VERY GUSTY, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON, AS COOLER
AIR BEGINS WORKING IN FORM THE WEST AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT BEGIN
TO MIX DOWN. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE BREEZY AND COOLER. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING A SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND COLD DAY ON
THURSDAY WITH TEMPS ABOUT 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN THEY WILL BE ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TOWARD THE
EAST COAST. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS. DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN FOR SUNDAY. A SMALL CLIPPER LOW MAY THEN BRING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS ON MONDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A RETURN OF
DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY. IN GENERAL, NO MAJOR STORMS ARE IN SIGHT
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EAST AND
WEAK, FAST MOVING LOWS FOLLOWED BY LARGE HIGHS DOMINATE THE
PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY THEN IFR CONDITIONS EARLY
THIS EVENING AS SNOW SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA.
SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL BECOME VFR WEDNESDAY. VERY GUSTY
WINDS MAY RESULT IN TURBULENCE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON
WEDNESDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.
CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT THEN
MVFR OR IFR ON SATURDAY IN LOWER CLOUDS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A NEW SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS THE
GULF OF MAINE WITH WIND WAVE BUILDING TO 6 TO 10 FEET/8 SECONDS BY
MORNING.
SHORT TERM: A STRONG SCA OR A GALE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR GUSTY WEST WINDS. AN SCA MAY BE
NEEDED THURSDAY. WINDS MAY DIMINISH FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER. AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED ON SATURDAY. WINDS SHOULD THEN BE
LIGHTER SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER HIGH BUILDING OVER THE WATERS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ002>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT