Author, speaker, and professor of politics shares his thoughts

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This presidential election was destined to be close. It will be. We have an incumbent with shaky approval ratings, though not terrible as in 1980 or 1992, and a nervous electorate. The economy is not currently in recession, but is experiencing one of the weakest post-recession recoveries since WWII. And President Obama’s foreign policy is showing signs of completely unraveling.

But practically everyone in the political world – especially political journalists, even many of those on the right – is saying Mitt Romney will lose.

So, in that environment, he will.

In a close presidential election – as in 1976, 2000, and 2004 – voter turnout is key. Earlier this year the Republicans had an advantage in voter enthusiasm, as the weak economy and Obama Care convinced many Republicans that this was their year. And the Democratic base was depressed, for many of the same reasons.

Now the reverse is true – Republicans are depressed and Democrats are energized. The main reason for this turnaround in the last few weeks is the polls. If you average the national polls, President Obama’s lead is not huge, it averages around 3.5 points currently. But the dominant interpretation of that lead by the major media and by political pundits is that the election is basically over.

Republicans complain abut the methodology of most of the polling organizations – they say most pollsters are using voter turnout models that mirror turnout in 2008, which would give President Obama an edge in the polling sample before any survey questions are even asked. The GOP prefers Rasmussen’s polls, which use a turnout model that averages the turnout from 2008 and 2004. In those surveys, the race is either even or has the President ahead by one point.

And yet, Nate Silver, a political stats guru who writes for the New York Times, points out that some of the surveys that have the President ahead by larger margins have cell phone numbers included in their samples, which he argues makes them more credible. Silver rates the race a 3 to 1 likelihood the President is reelected.

The net effect of all of this is that the Republicans’ enthusiasm edge over the Democrats is wiped out. The “storyline” of the national media the last two weeks that the election is over could turn out to be a self-fulfilling prophecy – helping to dampen turnout among Republicans, and convincing the few undecided voters out there that Romney just can’t win.

Republicans, of course, accuse the media of hyping the “election is over” story because they are all Democrats and want to help reelect Obama. Undoubtedly, some of them are. But Republicans, such as Peggy Noonan, who writes a popular column for the Wall Street Journal, and Irving Kristol’s kid over at the conservative Weekly Standard, also seem to have jumped on the “Romney is dead” bandwagon.

Romney is clearly behind, though by how much is open to debate. But it’s still September. There are three presidential debates still to come. There are millions of dollars of TV advertising yet to hit. Romney may well lose – if nothing changes over the next few weeks he certainly will. But he is within striking distance, unlike McCain in 2008 or Bob Dole in 1996.

But if Republicans in Ohio, Virginia, and Florida are too depressed to get out of bed and go vote on November 6 then it will turn out that the opportunity was wasted. What will Peggy Noonan and Irving Kristol’s kid say then?

This is one of those presidential election years in which the incumbent, by most objective standards, should not win reelection. The sluggish growth in the economy is disappointing to virtually everyone, unemployment is unacceptably high, the U.S. credit rating is headed in the wrong direction, and gas prices are significantly higher than four years ago. When the economy looks and feels like this, the incumbent generally loses (Carter 1980, Bush 1992). In fact, I’m surprised there hasn’t been more media focus on the President’s statement in February 2009 that if the economy didn’t recover in three years, his presidency would be a “one term proposition.”

Then there is the current foreign policy crisis in the Arab world, which has the potential over the next several weeks to pose a serious challenge to President Obama’s approval numbers. Whether or not one agrees with Mitt Romney’s comments this past week, events in the Middle East do not inspire confidence. Republicans are jumping all over the Jimmy Carter 1979 analogies.

But if the polls are accurate, President Obama leads the race with six weeks to go. The most crucial numbers of course are the state polls in Ohio, Florida, and Virginia. There is an amazing lack of confidence in Mitt Romney, even among Republicans. Judging from comments in a large variety of media sources in the last 10 days, no one thinks he can win.

Their complaints are familiar: he doesn’t relate well to people, he can’t criticize Obama Care because he has to defend his Massachusetts health program, he is too vague on policy details. I believe many Republicans are disappointed that he and Paul Ryan haven’t taken the Medicare/Entitlements fight more directly to the President. The Ryan VP pick was met with initial excitement, but that has waned somewhat as Romney/Ryan seems to have shrunk from that fight. The simple act of selecting Paul Ryan as his running mate made winning the fight over Medicare crucial to his chances of unseating President Obama.

And right on cue, the president is embracing the Bill Clinton legacy, hoping some of it rubs off.

It’s not over. The upcoming presidential debates represent Mitt Romney’s last chance to change the outcome. The opportunity is there. For one thing, expectations for President Obama’s performance are sky high. Everyone expects him to win. If he doesn’t, or if it’s a draw, Romney could gain ground. On occasion, the debates are game changers. After all, the presidential debates are where Ronald Reagan won the 1980 election and where George W. Bush won the 2000 election.

But if Romney is going to achieve that he will have to give the performance(s) of his life.