However, even if Lollipop manages to grow its share of the Android install base through the end of the year, it will likely face an adoption ceiling. Currently, the most popular version of Android is KitKat, or Android 4.4. It commands 33.9 percent market share. There are six versions of Android at current tip that have more than 7 percent market share, for reference. Given that, it seems doubtful that Lollipop itself will do much better than the 30 percent mark, unless something in its ecosystem changes.

Looking backwards, we can compare the current rollout of Lollipop to the KitKat release. The first time KitKat hit the charts, it had 0.01 percent market share. The next month, that tally inched up to 1.11 percent. The next month, 2.94 percent. So the initial incline can be shallow for new Android builds.

Operating system fragmentation makes the work of developers more difficult. If the install base of phones that you’re building for not only have a wide array of screen sizes, but also firmware, building an app that will work for the majority of users can be difficult. This applies to all three platforms, of course.