SDSU-Lobos could have NCAA implications

CBS’s Jerry Palm has the Aztecs (20-4, 6-2) as a No. 3 seed in his latest projected NCAA bracket, facing Nevada in the opening game. SI.com’s Andy Glockner has them as a No. 4 against Middle Tennessee State. ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has them as a No. 5 against Illinois.

And Nos. 4 and 5 seeds in the NCAA Tournament have historically straddled a fault line.

The former generally means playing in a geographically favorable venue against an overachieving team from a lesser conference. The latter often means getting shipped across the country to face a club from a power conference hardened by a tough schedule.

The difference between, say, opening against Oral Roberts in Portland, Ore., or Illinois in Columbus, Ohio.

It makes sense, then, that the 5-12 game so famously produces upsets. The demarcation line between where the lowest at-large teams from power conferences with rich tournament history fall and the automatic qualifiers from conferences you’ve never heard of rise usually is somewhere in the 12/13 neighborhood.

Since 1985, No. 4 seeds have a .787 winning percentage and have been upset 23 times against No. 13 seeds. No. 5 seeds, meanwhile, have just a .667 winning percentage and have been upset 36 times by No. 12s.

Part of it, too, is about location. Since adopting its current setup for the opening weekend, the NCAA gives preferential geographical treatment to teams seeded 1 through 4. That’s how SDSU ended up six hours east in Tucson, Ariz., last year as a No. 2.

This year’s western sites, Portland and Albuquerque, are not nearly as convenient but both potentially advantageous for SDSU. Portland is in the same time zone and a long way for most other teams to travel. And the Aztecs know The Pit in Albuquerque and its mile-high elevation well, winning their last two games there.

Over the past decade, teams playing closer to home win about 60 percent of the time in the NCAA Tournament. When one team is at least 1,000 miles closer to home than its opponent, that climbs to about 75 percent.

Which brings us back to tonight at Viejas Arena.

Beat New Mexico (20-4, 6-2) and hold serve over the remainder of a Mountain West schedule that includes two home games and three manageable road tests, and SDSU would win at least a share of the regular-season title and solidify its claim to a No. 4 seed (or better) in the NCAA Tournament.

Lose tonight, and getting a No. 4 gets more complicated. It probably entails winning the Mountain West tournament in Las Vegas without the top seed, which means surviving three games in as many days with a roster of nine scholarship players and, most likely, beating both New Mexico and UNLV (on its home floor) along the way.

“To date, I have never mentioned that piece of the equation to our team,” Fisher said. “There will come a time as we move a little closer to the end of the season that you'll talk about where we are and what we could do if we were to get another win … We have just said, ‘We must get ready to win this next one.’”