The WA opposition got a nice bounce in the first Newspoll, but then numbers fell to back to where they were and, with just under two months to go until the state election, today’s Newspoll has the Barnett government ahead 58 42 after preferences.

(McGowan still outperforms his predecessor Eric Ripper in satisfaction and better premier numbers, but with an election so close even observers who obsess over such ratings start to focus on the important stuff— voting intentions.)

That 58 42 would mean a 6 per cent swing, which in uniform terms would see eight seats move from Labor to Liberal, giving the latter 31 seats (on post-redistribution boundaries), enough to govern without anyone’s help in the 59-seat Legislative Assembly.

So perhaps that’s the main question going into the election: will the Liberals win a majority in their own right?

The March poll is the only state/territory election in the country due this year. It’s also, for observers (like me) overly susceptible to finding patterns in electoral behaviour, the first in a new cycle.

When the Howard government lost office in November 2007, Labor was in power in every state and territory. Then the state/territory governments started falling, and it got so that you could set your watch to the result: a “surprise” close one which, if the Labor government survived, was followed by a wipe-out.

(NSW alone jumped straight to the wipe-out, or perhaps had its first stage before the federal change of government.)

WA is the first of those new LNP government to go for re-election. It’s almost inconceivable to think Labor can win in eight weeks time, but (through my lens) there is less predictability about the size of this result than earlier ones because we’re in uncharted territory.

So maybe it’ll be closer on 9 March than today’s Newspoll says. Maybe it won’t.

This is the graph of Newspoll two-party preferred results since 2008.

Click image for larger.

And another thing ...

Today Julia Gillard overtakes Kevin Rudd in longevity as prime minister. Here is a graph PMs in descending order, with Gillard at number 16.

Your Comments

Mumble, 6% swing was as per NT and ACT, now WA.. Too muc of a coincidence?

Mr Abott would be happy witha federal 6% swing.

Boggzy from PerthMon 14 Jan 13 (10:03am)

Who on earth if Mark McGowan!?

What Mr Barnett has done right, is that he has made The Labor Opposition, totally irrelevent....Starting with their two leaders!

Steve DuneraMon 14 Jan 13 (10:17am)

The sort of cycle with governments swinging back and forth and state governments and federal governments not helping each party is fairly new isn’t it?

Would it just start with Hawke?

James of PerthMon 14 Jan 13 (10:33am)

Hi Peter, The Barnett government has been progressive while Labor (even with McGowan) remains old guard - eg still opposes uranium mining and favours political correctness. My guess is that the electoral tide here is moving in sync with Qld and NSW. In some traditional Liberal electorates where Barnett is painted as arrogant (Western Suburbs) the Greens are trying desperately to replace Labor as the alternative candidate with a good chance.

DonMon 14 Jan 13 (10:51am)

WA Labor should have gone with Ben Wyatt but yet again the factions had their way. WA Labor would have got my vote if they were led by Ben and I say this as a voter who can’t wait to vote for Tony’s Libs in the upcoming Federal election. But I hope that the state is no longer held to ransom in the form of Royalties for Regions - so a Libs majority would be the best outcome.

BigmanMon 14 Jan 13 (10:54am)

Peter, what do you think will be the final seat count of all the individual parties in both houses, do you thing any of the Greens and Independents will get up?

Peter BrentMon 14 Jan 13 (11:07am)

I’ll get back to you in a month or so ...

GJPMon 14 Jan 13 (11:17am)

I suspect there is more than a dollop of anti federal Labor mixed up in this result. To argue that this is strictly based on State issues I would think, be a generous case of self denial.

GeoffMon 14 Jan 13 (11:28am)

Off topic I know.
Waiting for the Federal election is like putting up with a tooth ache over the weekend knowing your dentist appointment is not till mid week.

kmeMon 14 Jan 13 (11:36am)

I wouldn’t be surprised if the pattern established when those state ALP governments were first elected was repeated - ie, a close win, followed by an increased majority (and, eventually, stagnation and decline). The cycle does seem to be speeding up, though - probably due to the tougher economic conditions.

AndrewMon 14 Jan 13 (11:37am)

The poll has the Greens on 12% - wondering if that will carry through in the final outcome. I think the Greens in particular are susceptible at the State level to what’s happening Federally.

AdamMon 14 Jan 13 (11:47am)

One thing missing from your analysis is the explanation of the final surge in support for the Liberals in the 2008 election. The Liberals had just replaced their leader on the eve of the election campaign and put Barnett back in. I think everyone was surprised (the Liberals included) when they won government. The increase in support was probably the same proportions McGowan initially experienced although coming from a higher base (which secured them victory). The moral of the story is that West Australians are particularly prone to giving new leaders a large honeymoon.

Peter BrentMon 14 Jan 13 (12:02pm)

That final surge to the opposition was replicated in Qld (2009) and SA, Tas and Vic (2010).

StringsMon 14 Jan 13 (11:58am)

As long a Colin can hide the rest of his cabinet and keep the rorts for regions going he will win, but this will not be the best for WA. He has mistaken the Perth public with his Elizabeth Qui? project. No one wants it and it will be a permenant blight on the city. We will remember whose kow-towing to foreign royalty created this fiasco whenever we drive past the city forshore.

G. W. SmithMon 14 Jan 13 (12:03pm)

Do we know if Katter’s Australian Party has a presence in WA? If so, are they a threat to pick up any regional Upper House seats? I know the Nationals are nominally independent of the Liberals in WA - about as independent as the Greens are of Labor in effect! - but is this a good test of the KAPs pulling power? Queensland has no Upper House, so this would be the first election with a proportional component since the KAPs inception…

geoffmMon 14 Jan 13 (12:11pm)

I think this will be as predictable an election as there is. McGowan I heard today talking about free WIFI on Perth trains.
Maybe people or at least the ones that swing elections are fed up with the tax payer funded freebies, particularly ones that make no difference to quality of life but ad cost to it.

RobinMon 14 Jan 13 (12:17pm)

Over here in Perth, the labor white ant brigade are attacking Barnett in the newspapers by labeling him Colon Barnett. Every day the same usual suspects are doing the same thing over and over

People are sick and tired of smear campaigns against politicians, who in the main dont deserve it and this is causing grief to the election prospects both locally and federally. The only politician in the ALP who appears to have any hope in the future is Ben Wyatt who unfortunately shot his bolt before the time was ripe. McGowan in a nice guy but seems to be overshadowed by Barnett.

DBMon 14 Jan 13 (12:21pm)

I don’t think the Barnett Government will win 58/42 in 2PP terms. Peter, you would know better, but I would have thought that 7% swing to an incumbent government would set a new record. It is pretty unusual for large swings to incumbent governments to occur, particularly in recent history.

By the way, I personally think Barnett is the most impressive of all State or Federal leaders of any party and by a long way. Hence, it doesn’t surprise me at all that his Government is fairly popular at the moment.

At a federal level there is a growing feeling that Gary Gray is in trouble in Brand. My people tell me that Labor have been doing a lot of polling there over the past few months and they have major concerns on their ability to be able to retain the seat. Will be an interesting seat to keep an eye on. Gary Gray is no Kim Beasley.

I doubt very much that Stephen Smith would be in trouble in Perth however as some people have alluded to.

DBMon 14 Jan 13 (12:34pm)

G. W. Smith
Mon 14 Jan 13 (12:03pm)

I’d be surprised, but if there were any KAP presence it would have to be in the north.

IanMon 14 Jan 13 (12:40pm)

I agree with your concluding remarks that the result may well be less predictable than some may think. Over here in WA there’s not a lot of obvious electioneering statements from politicians, particularly not Barnett, and the media hasn’t yet become focussed on the upcoming poll. Barnett has been a pretty good premier and he does get things done. As you know, West Australians are usually very sceptical on what happens in Canberra and many approve that Barnett tells the PM what his position is and doesn’t back off. Will the Libs need a coalition with the Nats? Possibly not but the current Royalties for the Regions deal doesn’t seem a particular talking point s maybe no one will care too much if it continues

SimonTMon 14 Jan 13 (12:47pm)

Mumbles i think this may be an election where the end result is at odds with the polls.The dislike of the ALP is pretty entrenched here but very much directed at the federal government and big union links. I think this translates to poll answers.
But at a local level the Libs don’t have many impressive local MP’s (evidenced by Barnett running a 2 man government and becomes one man during the frequent occasions Buswell is sent to the sin bin). Conversely the ALP has a good grass roots campaign going on. If people think the ALP has a chance I can see a back lash but a lot of people may be tempted just to support their local ALP candidate because it won’t make a difference.
This is all very unscientific and the opposite to your reasoned analysis but I do feel the difference between asking which party do you support (in a poll) and picking an actual candidate (in the election) may be material.

To register, a party needs 500 WA members. I think KAP is only registered for federal and in Queensland elections - in both cases on the basis of having an existing MP, rather than the necessary number of members.

Without registration, candidates cannot run under the party name.

KAP have said that they will run federally in all HoR seats and in all Senate races except SA (because Bob likes Xenophon).

Bill CalvinMon 14 Jan 13 (01:27pm)

Love to see some analysis of Victoria. One Term Ted is headed for a certain wipe out even if his terminal hold on power lasts until the next election due date, which is unlikely given the issues he has with one or two back benchers.

BryanMon 14 Jan 13 (02:17pm)

[snip]

Peter BrentMon 14 Jan 13 (02:20pm)

This one crossed over way too far into partisan sloganeering.

RoccoMon 14 Jan 13 (03:04pm)

While the antipathy is nowhere near that shown by some people to Mr Abbott of Ms Gillard, Mr Barnett is something of a polarising figure. While nowhere near the situation in NSW and Victoria there are some infrastructure issues in WA that could have and probably should have been addressed in the last four years. All we have had is some vague commitments to start planning on some transport projects which can be quietly shelved after the election. I believe Bob Carr made an art form out of this. I believe Barnett will be returned but I think the problem in predicting based on news poll is that in many seats with small margins [it was 64 votes in my elect orate last time) there are local factors at play.

David dives a 4D, tooMon 14 Jan 13 (03:35pm)

DB, (Mon 14 Jan 13 (12:21pm))

I was very interested in your views. I would have picked you for a BoF man, if asked.

But I personally I think that <snip> (Mumble I self-censored to save you the trouble ) is the most impressive of all State leaders.

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Peter Brent

Peter Brent started Mumble in 2001; the old site can be found at http://mumble.com.au. He mainly goes on about the numbers in electoral behaviour and voters' motivations that drive them. In 2009 he finished a PhD in political science which dealt with electoral administration, a topic he also sometimes goes on about. You can follow him on Twitter at @mumbletwits.