Hurricane Irma kept on a consistent path toward the southeast coast of Florida all day Wednesday, with the National Hurricane Center predicting the storm's arrival near Miami on Sunday morning.

Yet even though the monster storm maintained that steady eastward march, that doesn't mean it won't change course over the next few days, or that residents in Southwest Florida can let down their guard.

"We’re still four days away, so there’s still a lot of uncertainty that’s still out there," said National Weather Service meteorologist Andrew Mckaughan. " We’re definitely not out of the woods here along the Gulf coast. It’s still a significant threat to us,” he said. “We are still in the cone of uncertainty, and a lot can still change.”

Good as human ability to track and predict hurricanes is, weather is still influenced by a multitude of factors that different scientific modeling devices can see differently. This can lead to the increasingly common noodle bowl-looking graphics of possible outcomes.

"The challenge always is where the models have disagreement," said senior meteorologist Carl Erickson of accuweather.com. "How strong are those features going to be? Exactly where are they going to be? How fast are they going to be? That’s why sometimes you see all these different computer models looking like a spaghetti pot. Each model has different interpretations of how strong those other features are going to be."

In the cases of Irma, "The good news is, at least in the near term, the models are fairly consistent. The uncertainly comes where it heads toward southern Florida."

That uncertainty derives mainly from a ridge of high pressure to the north of Irma, and a trough of low pressure hovering over the central U.S. into the Southeast, said the National Hurricane Center's Dennis Feltgen, who describes Irma as the rope in a continent-wide tug-of-war.

"The alley that's between those two is where Irma is going to go. It's a matter of timing when it begins its turn to the north. It's like an atmospheric tug-of-war, but we just don't have the exact timing on that yet."

“I’m in the same boat with everybody else. It’s hard to tell exactly where it’s going to go right now," said Fort Myers environmental consultant and self-described weather nerd Barrett Stejskal, who runs his own weather website on the side.

"We’re relying on multiple factors when it comes to the storm and the direction it could take," he said. "I've had more phone calls and texts in the last three days than I’ve probably had in the last six months. People are coming out of the woodwork.”

Another thing that might affect Irma is the mountains of the Caribbean islands over which it's likely to pass.

"Some of these islands, especially Hispaniola and Cuba, have tall mountains and we’ve seen many tropical systems kind of meet their demise there,” he said. “Those land masses disrupt the circulation, especially when you get that higher terrain. That really kind of shreds the circulation up.”

If Irma were to go right over Hispaniola, it would probably weaken very quickly, Erickson said. “But it looks like it is going to remain north of the island (and) if it remains offshore, it will probably maintain its category 5 or 4 intensity all the way through the Bahamas as it approaches southern Florida."

WINK meteorologist Jim Farrell agreed: "Even though we are pleased about the more eastward track, there will still be impacts on Southwest Florida, especially in inland communities."

Storm surge is less likely to be a worry, Farrell said, because Southwest Florida is on the other side of the peninsula (think of storm surge as what would happen if you pointed a blow dryer into a tub of water, Erickson suggests).

Also, because the west side of a hurricane is usually drier, the region likely won't get as much rain, Farrell said.

"It's too early to get super-specific, but assuming it tracks similarly to what Hurricane Matthew did last year, we can expect breezy weather on Saturday, with stronger wind inland in places like Clewiston, Moore Haven and Immokalee."

Still, he and his colleagues caution against getting too comfortable.

"That track is going to shift as we get closer — they always do — and it doesn't matter if it shifts to the left, shifts to the right, South and Central Florida are going to be getting impacts from this hurricane," Feltgen said.

There’s still a chance that it will pass through the Keys and the Florida Straits and come up into the Gulf, Fleming said, "So it’s something we need to keep an eye on for at least a few more days.

Plus, he said, even a storm centered on the state’s east coast can cause damaging winds on the west.

Erickson said Irma's tropical storm-force wind range anywhere from 40 to 74 miles per hour. "With this particular storm, the latest data I see is that the hurricane-force winds extend outward about 50 miles from the center and the tropical storm-force winds go up to about 180 miles from the center."

That's why he and his colleagues all strongly urge residents to stay serious about preparations.

"We've got three good weather days here to get ready for the storm — take advantage of it," Feltgen said. "This is a weekend event. It goes downhill on Saturday, but we're not going to give anybody the comfort to say, 'Well I can still do stuff Saturday morning.' No. Do it now."