Friday, 14 October 2016

It’s possible,
of course, that the latest words from the President of the EU Council are just
posturing; part of the process of setting expectations before serious
negotiations start. But his statement that the
choice is between a hard Brexit and no Brexit at all is a blunt one, and is
interesting in that it’s the first time, as far as I’m aware, that a senior
figure in the EU has raised quite so plainly the possibility that the UK will
change its mind about the whole thing when it truly comes to understand the
implications.

Many of the
statements from the Brexit side indicate that they will simply assume that this
is nothing more than posturing. After
all, much of what they’ve said to date seems to assume that they really do
believe that the other 27 members will see the UK as such an attractive market
for their goods and services that they will give the UK a better deal as a
non-member than they get themselves as members.
One has only to put it in those terms to see the fatal flaw in the
argument – if an ex-member can get a better deal than (or even an equivalent
deal to) a member, why would anyone choose membership? But then, I keep forgetting – the UK is a
special and unique state, entitled to special and unique treatment.

I’m not sure
that threatening people with legal action before they even sit down to
negotiate is ever the best strategy, but that’s apparently what Liam Fox did
last weekend. His argument was that
other parties negotiating with the EU thought they were negotiating with 28
countries collectively, and they will feel so badly cheated if only 27
countries end up as part of the deal that they will sue those 27 for not
allowing the 28th to remain part of the deal. I see his point, but don’t understand why
they’d sue the 27. Surely they’d sue the
one which walked away from participation, despite having been an integral part
of the negotiations up to that point? But
then, I keep forgetting – the UK is a special and unique state, entitled to
special and unique treatment.

There are signs
that some Brexiters are starting to have concerns about the direction of
travel. It’s not that they’re changing
their minds about Brexit – they still want that, just not the type of Brexit
which the government seems determined to achieve. They were probably foolish enough to believe
David Cameron, when he said before the referendum that if the vote went the ‘wrong’
way from his perspective, he’d carry on and try to negotiate the best deal that
he could. If he’d said that, actually,
he’d stand aside and let the more rabid Brexiters do all the negotiating, maybe
they’d have been a little more cautious.

Having declared
so definitively that, as far as the UK government is concerned, the one
non-negotiable part of any deal is that the UK is going to keep the foreigners
out, I’m not sure that there’s much else left to negotiate about. Almost everything else flows on from that
position, and that’s all Donald Tusk is really saying. It’s simply a matter of spelling out the
implications, not of changing them. But
then, I keep forgetting – the UK is a special and unique state, entitled to
special and unique treatment.

If only I could
be as easily convinced about that as the government seem to be.

The problem with Brexit is not matter how "hard". Can it be 'hard' enough? Because we're still left with the City of London (a wealth-sucking financial leach), a grotesque pyramid of privilege, power and patronage crowned by the royal family, and a bully of a neighbour (England) which still occupies and exploits our nation.

I hope Brexit is just the beginning. We need to clear out all the rot, not just the EU. From root to branch. The concentrations of power need to be dismantled.

That applies to ALL the people of Europe. But especially here in Wales.