Monday, June 30, 2014

Last Wednesday, PM Matteo Renzi and three delegates of his
Partito Democratico met with delegates from Beppe Grillo’s Five Star Movement
(M5S) in order to discuss the M5S proposals for a new electoral law.

This was the first meeting the two delegations had which
resulted in a productive discussion. Whether or not other tangible results will
follow is yet unclear, but this meeting itself was a novelty, and it showed a
new attitude from M5S.

Until now, and mostly as a result of Beppe Grillo’s
intransigent policy, M5S always refused to discuss any possible form of
collaboration with traditional political parties, seen as corrupted and out of
touch with ordinary citizens.

In fact, when Renzi was appointed PM in February he asked
right away to meet with M5S to find some convergence on institutional reforms.
Beppe Grillo thought that the movement should not have agreed to such meeting. In
the end, following an online consultation with the activists, such meeting took
place. Beppe Grillo himself went, but he refused to listen to Renzi and just
ended up making a monologue in front of the numerous journalists who had
gathered there.

Months after that episode, a new willingness to meet with
the Partito Democratico shows a change in mood. M5S must have realized that
being always exclusively in opposition does not achieve much. This time the
idea of a meeting was suggested by M5S, and Renzi agreed.

The meeting was held in front of live webcams, as M5S always
demands transparency. All the talking was done by Renzi from the Democratic
side and by Danilo Toninelli, main author of the M5S electoral reform proposal,
and Luigi Di Maio, deputy speaker of the lower chamber, from the M5S front. If anything,
this meeting might have shown that M5S prides some smart individuals, as both
Toninelli and Di Maio were highly prepared and articulate. Renzi, on the other hand, showed
his habitual confidence in front of the camera and seemed to have really
studied the draft proposed by M5S.

I will now briefly compared the main points of the electoral
reform Renzi previously discussed with Berlusconi, and that he is still
advocating, currently baptized “Italicum” and the main points of M5S proposal,
drafted mainly by Toninelli after a series of online consultations with
members, named “Democratellum”.

Italicum (Renzi- Berlusconi)

-Majoritarian nature: plurality bonus which would
automatically give to the first party or coalition above a threshold of 37% a
majority of seats. This should ensure “governability”

-If the 37% threshold is not met by any list, the first two coalitions
or parties go to a run-off vote

-Closed lists: candidates are selected by parties, no preferences

-125 constituencies, but seats allocated only on a national
basis

-Threshold at 4.5% for parties in coalitions, 8% for parties
running individually and 12% for coalitions

-To be used only for the lower chamber, as Renzi is also
pushing through a reform to make the upper chamber, the Senate, non-elected

Democratellum (M5S)

-Proportional nature: 42 constituencies (some really large
ones, likely to have too many candidates), seats to be allocated following an amended
divisor for the D’Hondt method which would over-represent big parties and
under-represent small parties, according to the principle “more votes, more
seats and viceversa” (for the geeky ones like me: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/D'Hondt_method)

-Open lists: voters to be able to cast a preference for a
candidate, not necessarily from the party they are voting for ("disjointed preference")

-“Negative preference”: voters to be allowed to erase the
name of a candidate from the party list. This should encourage parties to
candidate appropriate people (eg without a criminal record)

-Coalition formations do not have to be agreed before the
election, to avoid pre-electoral compromises

Renzi made it very clear that while he thought that it had a
lot of “interesting points”, in his view the Democratellum still did not ensure
“governability”, meaning a clear mandate allowing the winner to govern the
country, because such a proportional system would always lead to a big coalition
government. The main question that Renzi asked the M5S delegation was: “Would
you be open to consider the introduction of a run-off vote?”. If M5S said yes,
future talks might be possibile. M5S, on the other hand, pressed for the introduction of preferences.

Di Maio today announced that they are ready for a second
meeting with Renzi. We'll see.