2017 Western States 100 Prediction Contest

Welcome to iRunFar’s ninth annualWestern States 100 prediction contest! Drymax, Altra, GU Energy, Julbo, along with artist Maggie Tides have all contributed great prizes. As in the past few years, we’ll have both merit-based winners as well as a random winner, so give this contest an honest go and you could end up bringing home some great gear!

The Basics

The rules are the same as they’ve been the previous eight years. You select, in order, your top 8 picks in both the men’s and women’s field. Points are accumulated based on the difference between a runner’s projected placing and their actual placing. (Placing is gender specific.) Given the reality that some top runners will drop out, only your five most accurate picks per gender will count. All DNSs and DNFs will be scored as if the runner placed one spot behind the final finisher. Your goal is to have the fewest total points among your 10 scoring runners (5 men and 5 women). Here’s an example of how points are awarded for a single pick. If I pick Ian Sharman for fifth man and he wins, I’d accumulate 4 points (|5-1|=4). On the other hand, if I pick Sharman to place fifth and he finishes as ninth man, I’d again accumulate 4 points (|5-9|=4). I’d get the same 4 points even if he’s beaten to the track by an additional woman.

Ties will initially be broken by the lowest number of points accumulated from the contestants’ picks for the men’s and women’s masters winners. (You can choose masters winners who you previously chose to place top 8 overall.) If a tie remains, the accuracy of picks of the overall winners will be the second tie-breaker. Any persistent ties will be resolved through a random drawing.

Please note that entrants list used is as of 6:33 p.m. PDT on June 12th. While there will be changes to the entrants list before race day with the new waitlist system, we’re all on a level playing field picking from the same list.

The contest will close at 6 p.m. PDT on Wednesday, June 21. That’ll give me time to, once again, analyze all your picks for a group analysis prior to the race.

To follow all of our Western States coverage, subscribe to iRunFar via RSS or via email. In addition, following us on Twitter will insure that you receive all of the live coverage we provide before, during, and after the race! On race day, we’ll also have a Live Coverage page with additional insight and commentary as well as an open discussion.

The Prizes

Merit Prizes We’ve got such an awesome assortment of prizes that we’re going to launch right into what each of the three merit-based prize winners will receive.

First Place

From Drymax: 6 pairs of socks of the winner’s choosing, including the option for the Stephanie [Violett], the [Ian] Sharman, or the forthcoming [Jim] Walmsey (when it’s available in August – see above ;-) ), each of which will be worn by the respective runner at this year’s Western States 100;

From Altra: The choice of a pair Altra running shoes of the winner’s choosing, including the forthcoming Altra Timp, a trail shoe that slots in between Altra’s Lone Peak and Olympus while being built on the same performance last as the Superior;

From Altra: The choice of a pair Altra running shoes of the winner’s choosing;

From GU: Summit Tea Roctane Energy Drink, Salted Caramel Energy Gels, a bottle of Roctane BCAA Capsules, and a BOCO run hat; and

From Julbo: The choice of a pair of Julbo running sunglasses.

Third Place

From Drymax: 2 pairs of socks of the winner’s choosing;

From Altra: The choice of a pair Altra running shoes of the winner’s choosing;

From GU: Summit Tea Roctane Energy Drink, Salted Caramel Energy Gels, a bottle of Roctane BCAA Capsules, and a BOCO run hat; and

From Julbo: The choice of a pair of Julbo running sunglasses.

You’ll also get fame. As proof, we’ll once again recognize last year’s winners, as they bested more than 800 other entrants. Nice work folks! 1st: Jeff Collins, [editor Meghan Hicks was second, but yielded in the prize giving] 2nd: Emily Janosko, 3rd: Mark Slivka. For those who are interested, here are the results of last year’s contest as well as the “group-think” predictions the contest entries provided before the race.

Maggie Tides Western States Trail triptych.

Random Prize This year, we’re awarding one random grand prize awarded at random to one lucky entrant who gives the contest an honest attempt.

Grand Prize Random Winner: Same pack as the overall winner (minus the art)!

From Drymax: 6 pairs of socks of the winner’s choosing, including the option for the Stephanie [Violett], the [Ian] Sharman, or the forthcoming [Jim] Walmsey (when it’s available), each of which will be worn by the respective runner at this year’s Western States 100;

From Altra: The choice of a pair Altra running shoes of the winner’s choosing, including the forthcoming Altra Timp, a trail shoe that slots in between Altra’s Lone Peak and Olympus while being built on the same performance last as the Superior; From GU: Summit Tea Roctane Energy Drink, Salted Caramel Energy Gels, Vanilla Cream Recovery Drink Mix, 5-Serving Flask + Chocolate Outrage Energy Gel, a bottle of Roctane BCAA Capsules, and a straw “Magda Hat;” and

From Julbo: The choice of a pair of Julbo running sunglasses.

The Contest

You may want to check out our regularly updated men’s and women’s previews before you make your picks. Make sure your favorites are actually running!

[Entry into iRunFar’s 2017 Western States Prediction contest is now closed.]

*The Details Only one entry per person. If you enter early and wish to change your picks before the deadline, you may replace those picks–please just use the exact same name and email address on subsequent entries. We suppose you don’t need to make all 18 picks, but be aware that a non-pick will be treated the same as a DNF. You can only choose a runner once per gender, but you can pick someone like Magdalena Boulet to place overall and win the women’s masters category. No hedging bets, finding loopholes, or other funny business; we reserve the right to invalidate any entry that doesn’t follow in the spirit of fairness.

The Hints We know that many people will be publishing posts with their Western States picks. In an effort to help you, the iRunFar reader, make the best picks, we’ll be providing you with others’ publicly published picks as we become aware of them. However, you’ve got to do the reading on your own… we’d recommend it as some top entrants usually end up missing the race. That’s the only hint we’ll give here.

Here at iRunFar, we’ve published our women’s and men’s previews and will be publishing a slew of interviews in the coming days. We update the previews whenever we receive new information about athletes. (In other words, stay tuned!)

The Closing

If you want to talk through your ideas before making picks, go for it. For those wishing to go public on their predictions, please leave some or all of your picks in a comment after making your official selections. Go ahead, put your mouth where your mind is! Want to talk some smack about your predictions or your race… we welcome it!

[Editor’s Note: Special thanks to Mitchell Goodman for building the backbone for our prediction contests. There would be no contest without him. Also, props to the VHTRC Bull Run Run Pick-the-Winner contests of long ago. My enjoyment of those contests gave rise to this contest.]

As noted above, I used the official entrants list as of Monday evening. Cat Bradley wasn’t on that list. We’ve since confirmed that she’s racing, but it’d be unfair to those who’ve already entered the contest to add her now. We’re all working from the same, set list. I hope you understand.

dunno if it’s too late to get this together at this point, and probably you’ve already thought about it, but wonder if you could use something like the hive-mind analysis you produced last year to generate an auction-and-fixed-budget-style game for this year’s race. would be intriguing if it were much more costly to pick walmsley, magda, kaci, howe, etc, than guys like denucci.