Analysis: In an election for Governor of Virginia today, 10/17/05, 3 weeks to the vote, the outcome between Democrat Tim Kaine and Republican Jerry Kilgore is too-close-to-call, according to a SurveyUSA poll of 750 likely Virginia voters, conducted for WSLS-TV in Roanoke and WUSA-TV in Washington DC. Kaine today gets 47% of the vote, up 4 points from an identical SurveyUSA poll 4 weeks ago. Kilgore gets 45% today, down 1 point in 4 weeks. Independent Russ Potts is unchanged at 4%. In 4 polls since 6/30/05, Kilgore has steadily declined, going from a 10-point advantage in June to a 2-point deficit today. Election day is November 8th. Incumbent Democrat Mark Warner is term limited; the Governor's seat is open. Kilgore gets 81% of the Republican vote. Kaine gets 90% of the Democrat vote. Kilgore leads by 8 points among men, unchanged from last month. Kaine today leads by 12 points among women, up 10 points in the past 4 weeks, up 17 points from SurveyUSA's first tracking poll in June. Kaine support strongest among most educated voters, pro-choice voters, and voters in urban areas and D.C. suburbs. Kilgore leads by 61 points among conservatives, but trails by 34 points among moderates.

Voters in Virginia will elect a Governor on November 8th. If the election for Governor of Virginia were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Republican Jerry Kilgore? Democrat Tim Kaine? Independent Russ Potts? Or some other candidate?