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Wednesday, September 5, 2018

SPX Update: Inflection Point Continues

Last update expected SPX would continue lower and test the zone near the prior all-time high, which it's done -- but it does still appear pointed lower, in the sense that the pattern does not look complete for a lasting bottom yet.

This is a very difficult spot because we can't have high confidence (yet) in any particular scenario. It's possible the market will continue just a little lower, then bounce up to new highs. I can't rule that out, or even declare it unlikely, given the pattern so far. What I do have fairly high confidence in is the idea that yesterday's low isn't THE low for this move. The market looks like it still needs to head lower, so for now, we'll treat this as at least a near-term downtrend:

In conclusion, the intermediate time frames are still up for grabs. There are potentially enough waves for a complete B-wave rally, and the market still appears to need lower prices for at least the near-term, so for now we'll treat Red B as the leading option -- but there are no guarantees here, so please don't ignore stops, and remember to protect capital. Trade safe.

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