Will 2016 deliver the Clintons’ third defeat in Washington’s presidential caucuses?

In a Jan. 22, 2012, exchange with confidant Sidney Blumenthal (nicknamed “grassy knoll” for his dark suspicions of all Clinton enemies), the secretary of state groused that presidential precinct caucuses are “creatures of the parties’ extremes.”

A rare public appearance here — her one in the last seven years — by Hillary Clinton. She autographed copies of “Hard Choices” at University Bookstore.

Hillary Clinton has a jarring recent memory and reason to complain.

The former front-runner finished third in the 2008 Iowa caucuses, which launched Barack Obama on a path to the White House. She lost every caucus state on Super Tuesday. She was overwhelmed in Washington’s caucuses, even though the Clintons had relentlessly courted this state before, during and after Bill Clinton’s presidency.

Bill Clinton finished fourth in the state’s 1992 caucuses, trailing ex-Sen. Paul Tsongas, a populist Jerry Brown challenge and even “Uncommitted.” Only yeoman work by two young coordinators, Rick Desimone and Josh Drew, salvaged a moderately pro-Clinton (but with Jerry Brown sign wavers) delegation to the Democratic Convention in New York.

Are the Clintons going to make it three losses in 2016?

Washington has never been an obedient state, dating back 80 years to when Franklin D. Roosevelt’s campaign boss James Farley allowed that America was composed of “47 states and the Soviet republic of Washington.”

The 1968 anti-Vietnam War insurgencies of Sens. Eugene McCarthy and Robert Kennedy led to raucous caucuses and cries of “Shame!” when party regulars railroaded the Democratic state convention.

The Republican right, in love with Ronald Reagan, refused to make then-Gov. Dan Evans a delegate to the 1976 Republican National Convention, even though President Ford had Evans on his short list for vice president. George H.W. Bush swept 16 of 17 primaries and caucuses on “Super Tuesday” in 1988: Sure enough, Washington was the 17th, going for the Rev. Pat Robertson.

Bill Clinton was scheduled to swing through Seattle on Thursday to raise money for the missus. He postponed the visit due to the death of former national security adviser Sandy Berger.

The Big Dog has an acute nose for political trends, and might sniff out a few when he comes here:

Bernie Sanders speaks during a rally at Hec Ed Pavilion that drew an estimated 15,000 people to the University of Washington. (Joshua Trujillo, seattlepi.com)

–Sen. Bernie Sanders was a big hit here in August, drawing 15,000 people to the UW’s Hec Edmundson Pavilion, a fine crowd that mixed baby boomers with a big turnout of students and 20-somethings. Sanders even found an historic Seattle locale for a low-budget fundraiser — the Comet Tavern.

–The Sanders campaign has generated loyalty and shown legs, even as Clinton has maintained her lead in national polls. Attend a district Democratic meeting and you’ll witness a much stronger presence by the insurgent’s supporters.

–The themes of Sanders’ campaign play well here. Washington has been at the forefront of agitation for a higher minimum wage. Seattle had a big Occupy Wall Street response and so did Tacoma — as 2012 Republican presidential candidate Rick Santorum found out at a memorably disrupted rally. Seattle has just reelected a socialist to its City Council.

–Hillary Clinton has gone behind closed doors, in her one appearance here since announcing — a $2,700-a-person “Conversation with Hillary Clinton” at the Madison Park home of Janet Wright Ketchum — and in previous forays to the Puget Sound area. She did sign books at U Bookstore last year, but then adjourned to a foundation fundraiser where head tables seats went for as much as $50,000.

–Hillary Clinton has avoided the chance to do forums spotlighting her priorities. House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi has held symposiums on family issues — pay equity for women, paid leave for newborn kids –and recently used Amazon.com headquarters for a panel on the proposed Employment Non-Discrimination Act.

O.K., Clinton is doing retail in Iowa and New Hampshire while raising money elsewhere around the country.

But there’s a key question here: Will the state’s progressive, activist Democrats go for a candidate seen only in SUV’s headed to mansion fundraisers, and where you have to pay $2,7000 to ask a question?

A closed door candidacy can turn people off. Or get them to do a slow Bern.