I think another question, since nearly all of us agree BOTH Chan and Hanyu are unlikely to do clean LPs, is can a clean Takahashi even beat an unclean but not disaesterous Chan and Hanyu to win a major event right now, or are those two so far ahead that still wouldnt happen. Takahashi still matches or bests Hanyu in PCS, but Hanyu just kills Takahashi in technical points, so much that even if Takahashi goes clean with quads, and Hanyu misses some things, Hanyu still comes out ahead, through a combination of much bigger GOEs, more difficult layout, sometimes higher levels. Meanwhile even if Fernandez skates his best how many mistakes do the other three need to make for him to beat him. Probably any of them have to skate as badly as Chan did at Skate Canada for that to happen.

They are not far apart at all. Hanyu has the strongest TES. Chan has the most refined skating. Takahashi has the most dramatic ability in performance. Looks like Takahashi couldn't be clean either with now two quads in his LP. If assuming as you said that Takahashi is clean with two quads which we've never seen, I think there won't be much room for big mistakes from Chan or Hanyu. However, I think that a little flawed Chan (assume that Chan's TES was up to his last year's level) or a little flawed Hanyu could beat a clean Takahashi. Hanyu wasn't that out of breathe at the end of his LP at NHK.