At the link, you can scan the list to find the counties that haven't reported all their precincts and see which candidate is favored in the precincts that have reported. For example, Ashland has 6 precinct that haven't reported, but in the 22 that have reported, Kloppenburg did much better than Prosser, 71% to 29%. If you assume the precincts are equal in population and the 71-29% split remains intact, Kloppenburg should decrease Prosser's lead by 405 votes when Ashland comes in.

There's one more precinct in Madison's Dane County. You can try to calculate what that precinct should be, using the 73-27% difference between the candidates in the 248 precincts that have reported, but I'd like to know what part of town the nonreporting precinct is in. More important, I'd like to know why that one precinct hasn't reported, because, without more, I'm suspicious that politicos with a "by any means necessary" attitude are waiting to see how many votes are needed.

What security do we have that these votes are being handled properly? With the vote so close, and the number needed to close the gap right there for all to see, it's hard to believe that nobody's going to cheat.

This race has been so politicized that, whether Prosser or Kloppenburg wins, the public will lack faith in the work of the Wisconsin Supreme Court. Every 4-3 decision — assuming the winner of this election is one of the 4 — will raise suspicion. The power of the court, in the end, rests on the faith of the people. It cannot balance the power of the other branches of government without the faith that this election has eroded.

This is why I think a Kloppenburg victory will be a disaster. Her supporters and her opponents expect her to vote to undo the legislation of the Republican majority that won decisively in the November election. If she proceeds to decide cases that way, people — including her supporters — won't believe that her vote was properly judicial, and the decision against the legislation will look like the court abused its power. How then will the court retain its prestige? If the people do not believe that the court is a court, then we will not have a workable system of separated powers in our state government.

As of 9:45 this morning, the Associated Press had results for all but 7 of the state's 3,630 precincts and Kloppenburg had taken a 140 vote lead after Prosser had been ahead most of the night by less than 1,000 votes.

That close margin had political insiders from both sides talking about the possibility of a recount, which Wisconsin has avoided in statewide races in recent decades. Any recount could be followed by lawsuits - litigation that potentially would be decided by the high court.

257 comments:

If she proceeds to decide cases that way, people — including her supporters — won't believe that her vote was properly judicial, and the decision against the legislation will look like the court abused its power.

I have a hard time believing that. Her supporters are supporters precisely because they want her to undo the November election.

"What does it mean that 24 of the 3630 precincts have not yet reported their votes in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race?"

It means they're waiting to see how many votes the correct result requires.

"If she proceeds to decide cases that way, people … won't believe that her vote was properly judicial…. How then will the court retain its prestige? If the people do not believe that the court is a court, then we will not have a workable system of separated powers in our state government."

Whoa. I'm having a flashback to Bush v. Gore. "How will the court maintain its prestige in the face of such naked partisanship!" cried partisans of the losing side, while overlooking the partisanship of the four dissenting justices. Then as now, the answer turned out to be America's most powerful shield against political unrest: A deep and seemingly inexhaustible well of public apathy.

Even when Klopp steals the election, there is no mandate against Walker. For every person yelling and banging bongos at the capitol is a person who thinks he is an idiot. The unions and Dems threw everything they had at this race and could not win it outright. Their 85K edge in Dane County will be neutralized for any recall election. Statewide, they will have to focus on numerous races and not just one and against senators who won in a very bad year in 2008. The unions just may steal this, but it won't be the victory they wanted or needed.

How you people live in such a half-assed Banana Republic is beyond me. Does anybody think that the people who issued death threats, defaced monuments and occupied the Capitol are above fudging a few ballots? There are consequences to not enforcing the law, and I fear Wisconsin is about to reap some of them.

More important, I'd like to know why that one precinct hasn't reported, because, without more, I'm suspicious that politicos with a "by any means necessary" attitude are waiting to see how many votes are needed.

Remember, Walker was caught cheating at Marquette for illegally campaigning. And we've seen how he and the WI GOP operate with regards to rules and laws.

In my rural Dane County township they ran out of ballots. When that happens, they use photocopied ballots. Photocopied ballots need to be counted by hand which slows things down and delays reporting the results. This happend in November too. I wonder if that is what is causing the delays. I know our town clerk and the people who help count the ballots in my township and I trust them.

Just did a calculation where I extrapolated the vote counts in missing precincts by the partial county results. Kloppenberg wins by 390 votes.

There are 9 counties with unreported precincts, 7 of them leaning towards Kloppenberg (some very heavily leaning) and 2 of them leaning towards Plosser.

I do agree it's suspicious. My money is on Kloppenberg winning this. The Democrats seem to pull out close elections far more often then Republicans. There is an innocuous explanation, e.g. Dem voters spoil their ballots more frequently, so recounts improve Dem vote totals, but I suspect there is an element of fraud as well.

Hmmm, I was just looking at the same data and had the same thoughts. It's interesting that in almost ever case where a county does not have all precincts reporting; the margin of votes for Kloppenburg is +4 or better. What's causing those precincts to be slow?

This is VERY suspicious, and we've seen this movie before in WA and MN. This time it simply can't stand, but I have no idea what the legal options are if the Dems do fix the vote.

Here's my dream (and yes, I know it's probably a dream)...have a Court say that this election was irredeemably dirty and corrupt, call a new one, and in the interim the legislature passes a voter ID bill, and the legislature/Sec of State office establishes appropriate safeguards in advance to ensure that the votes from the next special election are counted accurately. Then the public will have more confidence in the outcome.

Your numbers might be off because the split isn't even as to the # of precincts. While 2 counties in P territory are outstanding, they each only have 1 precinct outstanding whereas in the 7 K counties there are 22 precincts still unreported.

From the you-just-have-to-laugh file, Monica Davey from the NYTimes summarizes today what happened in Wisconsin just recently:

After weeks at a standoff, the Republicans pushed the bill through without the Democrats by changing language in the legislation and swiftly calling for a vote. And despite threats issued weeks ago from the Republicans of contempt findings against the Democrats or even arrests, business proceeded normally on Tuesday. For the moment, court challenges have prevented the cuts to collective bargaining rights from taking effect.

It means they're waiting to see how many votes the correct result requires.

At the polling place where I worked yesterday:

The ballot box produced a tape after the polls were closed showing the votes that were counted electronically and the numbers by race. The city clerk came to the polling place as soon as possible after 8:00 to get the numbers.

The voting judge ran three tapes, each of which appeared to have been initialed by at least three other people. The box with the physical ballots was locked with a padlock.

Unless there is a vast conspiracy involving many polling place workers and election officials, I don't know how they would cheat.

"What security do we have that these votes are being handled properly?"

None.

Garage: Are you referring to Walker's "breaking campaign rules" at Marquette University? Where he was running for Student Government? In 1986? If not, to what violations do you refer? Otherwise, yeah, it's quite a stretch to compare that 25 year old violation to stuffing ballot boxes, don't you think. And yes, I acknowledge that there has been no accusation or proof that has happened. Got to admit though, the setting is ripe for it.

I can't predict exactly what consequences will follow from loss of public confidence in the integrity of elections, but those consequences will surely be ugly. This election is just another step down the road to the Banana Republicization of America.

Good analysis, Ann. But in truth, American voters should have lost faith in close elections long ago, what with all the votes that are decided by a box of ballots found in a closet. My gut instinct without going back and looking at them is that these decisions go largely to the Democrat candidate (Franken) and so I will not be surprised (saddened, yes, but not surprised) when/if Kloppenburg wins this election by a very slim margin as a result of absentee ballot that turn up at the last minute.

I feel your shame Wisconsin, but it's just work that needs done, hard work, but get to it and clean up that cesspool. Most of you are decent honest people. You need to make that the dominant culture, because it's not at the moment. In CA we see what happens when the indecent win. No amount of natural benefits can wash out that taste. Do something now!

I'm dropping in from Israel to let you folks know how riviting and informative your election coverage has been. We're on GMT+2 time, 8 hours ahead of you, which means I was just enjoying my morning cup of coffee while you were switching over from Wed to Thurs.

I didn't know anything about Wisconsin other than the location of the Brewers and the Packers, but thanks to you I know that Dane County is liberal-heavy, while FdL, Washington, and Waukesha Co's are Conservative bastions.

Believe me, there are a good number of expat Americans over here, who, like me, are revolted by the actions carried out by Obama's liberal-Democract fan base. What has happened to America's values? Its Constitution?

I've been lurking on this blog for weeks. Wisconsin's union thugs remind me of the way Israel's Histadrut (the largest union) used to run things, here, until the then Finance Minister Netanyahu called their bluff in the early 2000's.

If you can convince enough people that the system is rigged by rich manipulators, you've tacitly recruited donzens or perhaps hundreds of activists at the precinct level whose sense of grievance is enough to make them willing to compromise their principles to cheat to win, in the belief that they are simply leveling the playing field, even in situations where their self interest alone might not be enough to push them over the line.

That the Kochs are almost completely irrelevant to the situation has nothing to do with the purpose.

cubanbob said..."it's time to require ID to vote and eliminate same day voter registration (motor voter) and make election fraud a very serious crime with very serious mandatory prison time."

That necessary, but it's not going to fix this problem, because Stalin was right: It's not the vote that counts but who counts the votes that counts. Here's what will: a voter fills out their ballot on carbon copy paper, depositing one in a box controlled by Democrats and one in a box controlled by Republicans. The boxes are completely independent and are counted separately by their respective parties, and the results posted concurrently, side by side, in public view. They two counts become controls on the other; if there's cheating, we'll know.

I am mystified that such a politicized judicial campaign is even possible in Wisconsin. Here in New York, there are detailed ethical rules for judicial campaigns that, among many other controls, would subject a judicial candidate to possible sanctions for directly or indirectly communicating her stance or forecasting her vote on cases that might come before the court in the near future. Judicial candidates here have to undergo ethical training on how to avoid such problems before they can campaign at all. And I can't imagine any judge here, elected after union support of the kind that has gone on here, who would not recuse from any case related to the "Budget Repair Bill" because of the appearance of impropriety, if nothing else.

See what Garage tried there? That's what's wrong with it all - dishonesty, bad faith, dishonor. And he thinks winning makes it OK. How many votes go which way does not erase the how you conducted yourself or who you are.

You make a great case as to why voting and vote fraud need to be taken much more seriously in this country.

If you consider (as I do) that democracy is a human right, then voter fraud is a crime against humanity and should be dealt with as such. Meanwhile, the process of voting is underfunded, under secured, and unprofessional.

That needs to change before integrity can be returned to our electoral process.

"a voter fills out their ballot on carbon copy paper, depositing one in a box controlled by Democrats and one in a box controlled by Republicans. The boxes are completely independent and are counted separately by their respective parties, and the results posted concurrently, side by side, in public view."

if republicans control the legislative and executive, can't they just pass the legislation again? Isn't that what it means that they won the election? I'm not sure why anyone cares if the supreme court makes the senate repass the legislation? Can anyone tell me

Mrs. Whatsit: WI has such rules, although their effect is limited by a recent SCOTUS decision holding that judicial candidates enjoy First Amendment privileges (the case originated in MN). Also, those rules do not apply to various interest groups who are not themselves candidates. Kloppenburg refused to distance herself from those supporters, and with everything else going on in WI, this election has become a proxy for Walker.

Your numbers might be off because the split isn't even as to the # of precincts. While 2 counties in P territory are outstanding, they each only have 1 precinct outstanding whereas in the 7 K counties there are 22 precincts still unreported.

I did a check, likely using the same sample methodology that ESM used. my call would be Klopper by 386, not 390,

not sure if it was the method, rounding, or the numbers are moving as we speak.

"I just found this box of locked ballots under this table in the church basement!"

And the number of ballots has to tally with the number of pink slips issued. The number on your slip is written next to your name. The final number of ballots cast is included in the tape that is printed and the final numbered pink slip is placed in the case to go to the city clerk.

The person manning the ballot box takes the pink slip from the voter as the voter feeds his ballot into the box, where his vote is cast electronically.

I don't know how there could be a locked box of uncast, uncounted ballots.

Prosser may as well concede. Democrats specialty for 100 years has been voter fraud. It's a science for them. Prosser's small lead will never survive the margin of Democrat fraud. It's over. You're stuck with The Klop for 10 years.

I really feel sorry for honest Wisconsinites. From police unions threatening businesses for failing to support the demands of public employees, to Democrat legislators running away from home to stop the duly elected legislators from conducting state business, to teachers defrauding taxpayers with illegal strikes and getting doctors to write fake notes to excuse absences, the rest of the country now sees Wisconsin as a hub of corruption and a hostile place to do business. I can't imagine any business wanting to locate in Wisconsin and create new jobs. I can, however, imagine existing businesses relocating to right to work states.

Quayle said..."But my guess is that a majority of you complaining use gmail or facebook, where you dump tons of personal data into someone else's ownership and control, and you don't seem to mind that."

I'm neutral on the kind of federal ID that I think you have in mind—I don't see why it's necessary if all states provide it in a federally-agreed format—but on this second point, there's a crucial difference you're overlooking. Private entities (and to some extent, this is true also for state governments) are fundamentally different from "the government" (here meaning the feds) because your relationship with them is optional.It's true that private companies often require significant disclosure, but it is always, in the last analysis, optional: No one has to use Google. No one has to have a credit card. No one really has to live in Wisconsin, and these days one must wonder why anyone would. But your relationship with the federal government is for all practical purposes mandatory. The individual has no power to opt out of whatever is imposed on you by the feds, which is precisely why the federal footprint in the lives of individuals must be as light as possible.

Like other High Tax, High Service model states, Wisconsin is losing small and medium size businesses to low tax states like Texas and Alabama. The heavies they lost to the Chinese years ago.

Walker is trying to jump-start business growth in his state again. The only way he can do it is by getting a handle on tax and regulatory growth, to make Wisconsin's Blue Model, which is brutally uncompetitive, more "purple", and able to attract money that would normally go to Utah or South Carolina.

Wisconsin has great schools, public works, and an outstanding university system (well, there is this cranky lawprof that the state wants to get rid of, but can't...), so the Badger State's voters voted to turn the corner and started go all Coolidge on government, to try and rebuild the business climate in Wisconsin. The problem the Left has is that they think that the gravy train can continue for ever. It can't. Wisconsin will start losing its edge over the long term as California and Michigan did, due to businesses being driven out by government.

Walker's nightmare isn't a bunch of union goons screaming "Kochwhore". It's what happened to California under the Democrats. That's what he's trying to outrun. The stupid Dems are trying to turn the clock back and embrace bankruptcy, because they think the money can't go anywhere.

What does it mean? It means they're dragging their feet so they'll know by how much they must cheat, that's what it means. And it doesn't take a howler monkey to see what nefarious activism the maniacal nutters in your state are capable of, oh ye of 50-comments-to-drive-a-point renown.

If this comes down to litigation, Prosser still loses unless he can get into federal court. If the election is litigated in the state court, Prosser will have to recuse, the Supreme Court will divide evenly (or all recuse themselves), and the state's intermediate appellate court will decide the election based on whether they would rather have liberal masters or conservative masters.

So, if I can put on my best "Greg House" impression for a moment: We need a federal basis for throwing out about a few thousand K ballots. Go.

"Private entities (and to some extent, this is true also for state governments) are fundamentally different from "the government" (here meaning the feds) because your relationship with them is optional."

Yes, but the issue is amount of data and your lack of control over it, and your lack of control over how cozy the government gets to, say, facebook.

I refer you to the above the fold, center column of today's Drudge regarding government and facebook, as support.

In Puerto Rico we know how to hold honest elections. Not just elections that are honest but that everyone agrees are honest. We can trust our process to yield valid results. I've voted here since 1976 and can count on one hand the number of allegations of fraud.

We still get some of the worst politicians in the US but at least we get them honestly.

1) Voter ID card, with picture. This is a heavy duty, plastic card with picture, height, wt etc, encrypted snowflake codes and more to make sure it can't be counterfeited.

2) Paper ballots, marked with a pencil in the box beside the candidates name. No question of trusting voting machines.

3) Hand counting of all ballots

4) All ballots reported to a central location in the capital.

5) Separate ballots for municipal, state leg, state senate and governor.

6) VERY difficult to get absentee ballots. Special arrangements are made for people who can't get to the polls eg; police, incapacitated but they vote on election day.

7) When voting, we dip our finger in a special dye that flouresces at a specific wavelength. UV, but special.

8) when you show up at the polls you are checked against a list.

Probably some more safeguards I am leaving out.

Polls open at about 10:00AM and close at 2:00PM. We have fairly final election by 7:00 though some very close races may go an extra hour or two.

It takes a week or 10 days for final certification but it is virtually never different from the results on election day.

We have high registration, around 80-85% without resorting to shenanigans like motor-voter. We typically have 70-80 percent of registered voters voting.

If I lived on the mainland, I doubt I would even register to vote. I just don't trust the elections in most jurisdictions. That you are even talking about fraud, that jokes about election fraud are common, is not exactly inspiring.

Dunn county's website has unofficially fully reported, (not shown on the AP site) and it shows Klopp picking up 229 votes in the last two precincts, which would giver her 369 vote lead. Dane is fully reported. The remaining precincts

The voting judge ran three tapes, each of which appeared to have been initialed by at least three other people. The box with the physical ballots was locked with a padlock.

Unless there is a vast conspiracy involving many polling place workers and election officials, I don't know how they would cheat.

In Washington State in 2004 boxes of votes turned up mysteriously weeks later in left-wing King County. And got counted after the first recount. Rossi, the Republican was ahead on the first two recounts but the third recount put Gregoire over the top.

You don't need a conspiracy to steal a close election. You need a few people in a few places, acting independently to the same end.

How can you possibly say that Wisconsin has great schools when such a stunning percentage of the electorate acts so stupid? Turnout was less than 100% and a significant number voted for a candidate who did nothing to discourage the impression that she was running for the sole purpose of striking down a law that has attracted protests. If Wisconsin schools were teaching civics right, it would have been unanimous for Prosser. Why do you think Democrats are so desperate to subvert or get rid of Anglo-American history and civics classes in schools? To have a sound grasp of those subjects is to cease being a liberal, and being an independent is a short psychological skip and jump to leaning conservative.

The whole sordid story is here, including some information about keeping voter lists up to date is relevant to the other thread.

I understand that Wisconsin has a different election system. But votes with no provenance can and do get counted. After all, you voted, that's your civil right: are your rights to be denied because some poll worker didn't get them where they needed to be? Apparently not, and there's no way to distinguish a fradualent from a real vote once the chain of custody is broken. But lawyeres will sue to make sure they count anyway.

CA is much worse. We would never be able to elect a real Republican Governor and legislature. The opportunity WI has right now is far out of our reach.

In both states, nobody is optimistic. The conservatives expect that they won't be able to fix things and the liberal don't want to, but both expect a fiscal disaster coming. Some people really do believe that hope is a plan. That plan has bankrupted CA beyond anything in the history of this country or most others.

I think we're doing exactly the same thing. I just did some half-assed rounding.

Now I have Prosser gaining net 10 votes from the remaining unreported precincts, which means Klopper wins by 359.

I think that the counting uncertainty is greater than that, but obviously Prosser is a pretty big underdog. I think he has a 20% chance at this point, not counting (further) fraud on the part of the Dems.

Turnout was less than 100% and a significant number voted for a candidate who did nothing to discourage the impression that she was running for the sole purpose of striking down a law that has attracted protests.

And Prosser did nothing to discourage the impression that he would be a rubber stamp for Walker.

If she proceeds to decide cases that way, people — including her supporters — won't believe that her vote was properly judicial, and the decision against the legislation will look like the court abused its power. How then will the court retain its prestige? If the people do not believe that the court is a court, then we will not have a workable system of separated powers in our state government.

They. Don't. Care. It's about winning. If they have to burn down the village to save it, that's what they will do.

There are not enough votes out there for Prosser to overcome even the slim lead that Kloppo has. There will be a recount, and then litigation. Perhaps there will be multiple litigations? Can each county's recount be appealed separately in that county's courts, or will a single court hear all issues? I can't tell from what I've read.

This is an astonishingly close result in a passionately felt campaign. It's going to be ugly.

This is why I think a Prosser victory will be a disaster. His supporters and his opponents expect him to vote to "compliment" and "closely mirror" the legislation of the Republican majority that won decisively in the November election. If he proceeds to decide cases that way, people — including his supporters — won't believe that his vote was properly judicial, and the decision "complimenting" and "closely mirroring" the legislation will look like the court abused its power. How then will the court retain its prestige? If the people do not believe that the court is a court, then we will not have a workable system of separated powers in our state government.

It used to be the Demos only pulled this when absolutely necessary, now it's the method of choice.

Sooner or later (and I'm betting sooner because more than enough people realize the Lefties are running this country into the ground), we're going to see an election where people are sick of the crooked votes and the crooked courts and the crooked officials (all Demos, of course) and there will be real trouble.

The outstanding precinct in Jefferson, Lake Mills, voted less republican in the Nov. 2010 election than the overall county. Prosser is underperforming by 3% vs. Walker, so that precinct may end up being a wash for both candidates.

Fucking cowards. Rewarding death threats and riots with an electoral victory is not only pathetic, it's dangerous to the rest of the country. If you assholes want to live in a third world shithole, buy a plane ticket. Leave us one decent country in the world.

His supporters and his opponents expect him to vote to "compliment" and "closely mirror" the legislation of the Republican majority that won decisively in the November election. If he proceeds to decide cases that way, people — including his supporters — won't believe that his vote was properly judicial,

Yeah, it's cute to try to turn it around but it doesn't really work.Prosser has a history and a record. It will be easy to discern if his rulings *change* in a certain pattern.

Klop has no such record and indeed was going nowhere in this election prior to her supporters using this cause to rally union voters.

A 300 vote margin at this point on 1.4 million cast means nothing. I recall from the Franken Coleman election that the numbers continued to change days after the election. Wards discover that they transposed numbers, that they forgot to count ballots, they counted ballots twice, etc...

Also, the turnout in Waukesha appears significantly below all the other counties. I bet there are some votes there that have not been counted. They will be found on the recount.

The AP said early Wednesday morning that it was missing results from Cudahy, St. Francis and a small portion of West Allis in Milwaukee County. According to results gathered by the Journal Sentinel Tuesday night, Prosser won St. Francis 1,336 votes to 1,241 and won Cudahy 2,468 to 2,313. If that proves to be the case, it would add another 250 votes to Prosser's lead.

It's a tie. In such cases, the electorate should respect the declared winner. That doesn't mean vote-fraud isn't a crime against democracy, but it does mean people should chill out and respect the fact that in such a close election, it can go either way.

Also, if fraud occurs (and it will), the good Republicans and Democrats of Wisconsin should be mindful of the fact that trustworthy communities like theirs are the easiest to defraud, and often the most likely to suffer it. There's gotta be a Shakespeare or Bible quote on that subject.

What is significant about this election no matter who wins is that the Unions did not get their "Scott Brown Moment" They needed to win this election significantly like Scott Brown did (by 5 points). After all the protests, the fleeing to Illinois, and all the petitions and the money and the anger and the cries for civil rights and the cash investment, the unions managed to get to a recount and possibly squeek out a victory in a low turn out election that - with the Union motivation - they should have won handily.

I think this is all the Democrats believe now. That whoever has the might has the right. The gavel is just another kind of weapon.

It's too bad. Both sides are radicalized. If we can't get the faith of the people to believe in unanimity, as Ann says, I fear it will end in Civil War, as this kind of divided electorate ends up in armed intervention in S. American countries.

After all the protests, the fleeing to Illinois, and all the petitions and the money and the anger and the cries for civil rights and the cash investment, the unions managed to get to a recount and possibly squeek out a victory in a low turn out election that - with the Union motivation - they should have won handily.

All true and all irrelevant. Once Kloppenburg is on the Court, she'll do whatever they want as if she'd won by 90,000 votes.

OK this is what Swing State is saying about those last two precincts in Milwaukee County:

*******

11:14am: AP just made some adjustments to previous counties, so now KloJo's lead is at 311. 11:04am: We're using this link for Jefferson & this link (PDF) for Taylor. 10:59am: The AP has finally caught up with us and is also showing the same lead. There are five precincts left: 1 each in Jefferson, Juneau, and Taylor, and 2 in Milwaukee. We believe the Jeff and Taylor precincts are less Prosser-leaning than their counties, while the Milwaukee precincts (suburban West Allis) are much more favorable to Prosser than MKE as a whole. As for Juneau, that's in the good lord's hands. 10:40am (David): We show JoAnne Kloppenburg with a 369 vote lead right now, with Sauk and Ashland complete. 8:57am: The JS is reporting that the last two Milwaukee County precincts are in West Allis, which gave Prosser 63% in the first round. If indeed the case, those Sauk/Ashland precincts will have some heavy lifting to do.

That close margin had political insiders from both sides talking about the possibility of a recount, which Wisconsin has avoided in statewide races in recent decades. Any recount could be followed by lawsuits - litigation that potentially would be decided by the high court.

Would that mean Prosser would have to recuse himself, creating another tie?

Hence, the quotation marks in my rewrite. If you want to know what the Prosser campaign is really about, his campaign has already told you. No need to guess. You might think that actively opposing this explicitly stated political allegiance/bias would be a judicially prudent--even, mandated---reaction.

It's hilarious for Althouse and others to make politically motivated attacks on Kloppenburg....because she's supported by politically motivated folks.

"But, but, but our political motivations are the good and just ones. "

I was able to sleuth and find the Taylor county returns in Nov 2010, the outstanding precinct, Maplehurst, is very tiny, only 116 votes were cast in the Nov. Gov race, compared to 6800 total for the county overall. Very few Prosser votes to be had there.

I don't think it's fair at this point to say that there was fraud by Democrats.

I voted in the 2004 Washington election, and I do think there was fraud there, but there's no evidence that it was organized.

In Washington the court decided that even though the number of illegally cast votes was greater than the margin of victory, unless those votes could be proved to have gone to Gregoire, there was no ground to redo the election. The election total was reduced by only 5 votes, even though far more than that had been illegaly cast.

The whole point of the secret ballot is that individual votes cannot be traced to a particular voter. That is why it is so important to have all the checks on fraudulent voting happen BEFORE votes are cast. And that's why the state should provide a free ID to anyone who doesn't have a driver's license and demand a state ID before allowing a vote to be cast. Even if the state doesn't provide free IDs, and some do, it is not an onerous provision. Everyone, including poor people and minorities, routinely engage in activities that require photo ID.

Any recount could be followed by lawsuits - litigation that potentially would be decided by the high court.

While I usually think demands that judges recuse themselves are overblown, this is clearly a case where Prossor would have to.

So the next question is, could the take any other justices out with him? Could he get into a very public, very messy dispute with some of the liberal justices such that they would appear to be biased and therefore need to recuse themselves?

"In Washington the court decided that even though the number of illegally cast votes was greater than the margin of victory, unless those votes could be proved to have gone to Gregoire, there was no ground to redo the election."

In Wisconsin, if the number of votes in a given precinct exceeds the number of voters who showed up at the polls, the judges of election MUST randomly discard ballots in an amount equal to the excess.

Kirby Olson said..."Both sides are radicalized. If we can't get the faith of the people to believe in unanimity, as Ann says, I fear it will end in Civil War, as this kind of divided electorate ends up in armed intervention in S. American countries."

That would be the shortest civil war in history. One side doesn't believe in guns!

Well, yeah. Prosser pretty much has to recuse in deciding his own election.

The real potential for mischief in judicial review of the recount will be at the trial court level. The trial court gets to make the findings of fact, and these are hard for the appellate court to overturn. Also, with Prosser out, the supposed ideological split on Wisconsin Supreme Court is 3-3. Ties in the appeal court result in affirming the lower court.

All this is premature. It depends on the recount and what issues arise in the recount. The Wisconsin recount procedures are quite clearly spelled out, so it might go more smoothly than many assume.

We will not see hanging chads, since Wisconsin ballots are either all paper or all electronic.

Court Race May Come Down to the Town of Lake Mills (Updated)Randy RadtkeManaging Editor

With fewer than 200 votes separating incumbent Supreme Court Justice David Prosser and his challenger assistant attorney general JoAnne Kloppenburg, the election outcome could be affected by the Town of Lake Mills where all the votes have not yet been counted.

Because of problems with its tally seats, the township has not officially reported any vote tallies as of yet to Jefferson County and that means that between 700 and 760 votes have not been entered in the statewide totals for a seat on the state's highest court.

Election officials in the township were expected to meet at 8:30 a.m. this morning to finish counting 24 paper ballots that have not yet been counted, make the necessary correction to their tally sheets and then report their vote totals to the County Clerk's office at the courthouse. But that meeting did not occur because of a lack of a quorum of the town's Board of Canvassers. A new meeting time has been officially posted by town officials and is now scheduled to begin at 11:45 a.m.

Given the closeness of the race for a 10-year term on the court (which is likely to be headed for a statewide recount), the township's vote totals could be a factor in determining which candidate goes into the expected recount on top.

Ann -- Why is it that only a Kloppenburg victory is a disaster by your "prestige of the court" standard? Perhaps you should consider the millions in outside spending that poured in on Justice Prosser's behalf and what the interests and expectations of those groups are.

"In Wisconsin, if the number of votes in a given precinct exceeds the number of voters who showed up at the polls, the judges of election MUST randomly discard ballots in an amount equal to the excess."

Mathematically, that would have virtually no impact on remedying the fraud, unless it's assumed that both sided cheated equally in which case a remedy would not be needed. A dumb solution.

The conspiracy theories are entertaining but hold no water. There's a perfectly reasonable explanation for all those precincts "holding out." The AP went to bed around 1 in the morning. A handful of counties finalized their votes later than that and updated their local websites to reflect the totals, but weren't included on the AP's tally until this morning. As for the rest of the counties, many were unprepared for the higher voter turnout. Normal spring election turnout is around 20% or less; plenty of counties had close to double that. The counties that ran short on ballots had to switch to photocopied ones, which can't be put in the scanning machine and have to be hand-counted. Double the normal turnout on hand-counted ballots means that things take longer . . . no surprises there.

It's also hardly alarming that a disproportionate number of late precincts are going Democrat. What kinds of precincts take the longest to count? The ones with the most votes (urban areas--largely liberal) and the ones with unexpectedly high voter turnout that had to switch to hand-counting (unexpectedly high turnout probably means a lot of challengers to the incumbent). As for the one missing Dane County precinct, another simple explanation: AP error. Dane County had been reporting all of its votes counted by 11 PM or so. The AP was holding out on some phantom precinct that, in reality, had already been included in the total or was an empty ward.

It will completely come down to the 2 Milwaukee precincts, which are a wild card. City Of Milwaukee claims all their votes have been counted, so it has to be one of the Milwaukee suburbs. Rumors are flying rampant about which precincts they are, and I don't think I've heard anything too conclusive. It could go either way, and it could or could not be enough to make up the difference.

Simon said...cubanbob said..."it's time to require ID to vote and eliminate same day voter registration (motor voter) and make election fraud a very serious crime with very serious mandatory prison time."

That necessary, but it's not going to fix this problem, because Stalin was right: It's not the vote that counts but who counts the votes that counts. Here's what will: a voter fills out their ballot on carbon copy paper, depositing one in a box controlled by Democrats and one in a box controlled by Republicans. The boxes are completely independent and are counted separately by their respective parties, and the results posted concurrently, side by side, in public view. They two counts become controls on the other; if there's cheating, we'll know.

4/6/11 9:29 AM

Ironically there already is in place a national, ubiquitous system that is reasonably fraud proof and can be fairly easily modified to handle elections: the ATM network. Imagine that with a debit card you can go to any ATM and cast your vote at any place that has an ATM card machine. It would be impossible to intimidate a voter (Black Panthers) at a polling station. Not possible to not have military or absentee ballots not counted. Not a problem that would requiring extra long hours at certain precincts. The vote could be commenced several days in advance and the results published for all precincts a few minutes after the last vote could be legally cast is cast. And the audit trail is much cleaner if fraud is suspected. While not foolproof it is certainly more secure against fraud than the current system. And when all costs are considered probably cheaper as well.

"Both sides" are not radicalized. Only one side is issuing death threats, destroying property and occupying buildings. One side, not two.

Indeed. In fact, it was assumed that Klopper would win easily because her side was whipped up into a frothy anger and that would translate into votes. But the quiet resolved (not "radicalized") voters on Walkers side came out to support him.

It does actually matter that the guy's campaign is claiming to compliment and mirror the new GOP gov.

Attempts to sweep this under the rug have no non-political justification.

Hence the irony, when Prosser supporters (claiming the non-polical high ground) say that this comment should be ignored at the same time they say that Kloppenburg should be opposed because some of her supporters say they support her because she hasn't claimed to compliment and mirror the new GOP gov (these supporters haven't been granted the explicit promises of alegence that Prosser's campaign as given to the GOP, so her supporters have only been guaranteed a neutral POV, unlike the GOP, aka the mirror of Prosser).

IOW, if your problem w/ Klppenburg is that Tasseography has led you to suspect she'll be a politically motivated judge, it should definitely be a problem when Prosser's campaign explicitly promises that he'll be a politically motivated judge.