Red-state Democrats may break with White House

For Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) and his top lieutenants, the challenges of balancing the 2014 Senate map and President Barack Obama’s second-term agenda could cause as many headaches as anything Republicans throw at them.

Overall, 20 Democratic-held Senate seats are up for grabs next year, versus 13 for Republicans. Democratic incumbents face reelection in solidly red states like Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Montana and South Dakota, all of which Obama lost by double-digit margins in November.

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A little more than a year after Obama is sworn in to another term, there will be high-profile Senate races in swing states like Colorado, North Carolina and New Hampshire. One red-state Democrat — Sen. Jay Rockefeller (W.Va.) — has already announced his retirement, putting in play a seat that has been in Democratic hands for nearly three decades.

While Obama is now riding high in public-opinion polls — and the GOP is struggling with historically low approval ratings — senior Democratic senators and aides say the president must face a stark political reality even as he begins his second term as commander in chief. Newly reelected and emboldened red-state Democrats, as well as senators up for reelection in 2014, want and need to show independence from the White House. For these Democrats, a visit or endorsement by Obama is not going to help them win, although they will be happy to have his money or checks from his donor network.

From guns to immigration to budget fights — especially possible cuts to the popular Medicare and Medicaid programs — these upcoming battles will expose the fault lines within the Democratic Party. Obama will have to juggle the political needs of red-state Democrats even as he tries to outmaneuver a House GOP leadership pulled to the right by its hardliners.

Reid singles out those who are up for reelection and does whatever he can to promote their agenda and protect them from politically charged votes, aides said Friday.

“What you have in the Democratic Caucus — probably more so now than the Republican [Conference] — you have a sizable amount of moderates,” Sen. Mark Begich (D-Alaska), up for reelection in 2014, told POLITICO. “We are kind of practical, let’s get things done, we’re willing to try some new stuff. But we’re not going to do the same ol’, same ol’. I think that’s a struggle with the administration at times.”

“We may have some other agenda ourselves,” added Sen. Tom Udall (D-N.M.), who also faces voters in two years. “We may as a Senate decide that we want to do something about jobs. The Senate may decide it wants to do something about small business and a tax package. We may want to do something on tax reform itself. Our agenda depends on our 55 senators — [and] what we decide we want to put on the floor.”

A senior Democratic aide said the White House must recognize the “blunt political reality” that 20 Democratic senators will face reelection in a cycle in which control of the Senate is at stake.

“And if they want to actually get stuff done, they’re going to have to make an effort to work with us, and personally reach out to the Mark Pryors, and the Mary Landrieus and listen to those folks and make them feel heard,” the aide said. “It can’t feel like an oppositional relationship, it has to feel like we’re partners with generally the same but sometimes slightly different options on how to get there.”