Sunday, June 10, 2012

With June now in full swing, complete with Tee Ball games,
neighborhood Happy Hours and the unbridled joy with (finally) finding GLBC’s
The Wright Pils at my local Heinen’s, things are good on the NorthCoast
as the Indians remain near the top of the AL Central. Certainly glaring holes persist and continue
to concern, but before getting into the “hole” on the Indians that gets the
most attention, let’s take a quick look around the rest of the top of the AL
Central and see Detroit going under the
microscope again, this time by Jay Jaffe of his new “Hit and Run” feature at SI
(which is a new feature at SI.com that is worth a look) and a realization that the White Sox have been paced by three players on the wrong side of 30.
Though I’d never bet against Paul Konerko and the body of work he’s put
up (good read here, even if it contains the words “Hawk” and “Harrelson” in the
same sentence), it remains to be seen how they’d be able to handle an injury or
two, particularly because their supporting cast (like the Tigers) is pretty non-supportive,
with not much by way of reinforcements on the horizon.

And with that mention of “reinforcements” on the horizon,
now is a good time to look at that aforementioned “hole” on the Indians that
has generated more hand-wringing and hair-pulling since a “man” named
Dellichaels patrolled the same hallowed ground those many years ago – LF. Despite the fact that the offense hasn’t been the problem for the Indians (this has), since SO much focus has been placed on
this “need” for a RH bat, with LF as the obvious spot for one, let’s spend a
Lazy Sunday out in LF…

Seeing as how the question of “how did we get here” in LF is
a rabbit hole I’ve already jumped through and since I have no intention of
revisiting that cold, dark place that it led to where names like Trevor Crowe
(currently in Akron) are mentioned, let’s take the opportunity to look
forward. Because “where we’re going” in
terms of LF is much more interesting as we’re entering about a 6-week stretch
that could determine what’s going to eventually going to happen in LF for the
rest of the season. The reason that
6-week timeframe is mentioned is because as Grady’s recovery hit (another) setback and with Damon looking better as of late (small sample size siren
blaring) with Matt LaPorta (for whatever reason) on the parent club, the Trade
Deadline at the end of July could serve as the endpoint to the stretch of games
we’re embarking upon.

Since I’m not going to be the guy to hammer away at the
“Buyers” or “Sellers” theme in mid-June in the interest of page clicks and
realizing that there’s a LOT that can happen between now and then, while it
didn’t seem like there was a lot of clarity on the Grady situation when
Castrovince wrote this thoroughly depressing piece a while back, the news that
he’s not even running right now calls into question whether he’s coming
back…ever. And that leaves us where we
are, with Damon taking the majority of the reps in LF, Duncan as a RH bat off of the bench, and with
LaPorta looking (once again) like the Matt LaPorta we’ve grown all too
accustomed to over the last few years.

While many have (already) soured on Damon and were pleading
for LaPorta to get a chance in Cleveland, it always reeked to me of the “Second-String
QB” town that Cleveland has become in the past decade or so, with the argument
that he “couldn’t be much worse” than Damon and/or Duncan (don’t get me started
on people that are complaining about Cunningham’s presence on the roster as
that’s baseball discourse at it’s lowest level) as a LF as justification to get
another extended look at LaPorta in LF.
Now, with MaTola on the Indians and looking every bit as bad at the
plate (just count how many off-speed pitches/curveballs he misses in between wristing
fastballs JUST out of the infield) as he always has, the calls for LaPorta to
get consistent playing time have diminished significantly…and in pretty short
order.

Interestingly, what has been most telling about MaTola’s
brief time with the Tribe – other than remembering what he looks like flailing
at pitches down and away or grounding out meekly to SS on the 1st
pitch of an AB or being out of position at 1B…all in the first game – was the
language that was used by both LaPorta and the organization as it related to
his call-up. Though this was admittedly
from a week ago, LaPorta’s words prior to last Sunday’s games was only the
first sign of an obviously growing disconnect between player and
organization. Quoth LaPorta, to reporters on Sunday:

“I’m up here hopefully to help contribute to
this ballclub…If it’s two days, three days, a week -- doesn’t matter.

--snip--

“I just need to have
fun, play the game the way I know how and not worry about what [the media is]
thinking, what somebody else is thinking or what a fan is thinking. It’s been a problem that I’ve had to overcome.
I can’t control what other people think. I’m not in control of somebody else’s
happiness. If they want to be upset about my performance, sorry.”

Wait…“If they want to be upset about my performance, sorry”?

How does this suddenly fall at the feet of “you guys” (the
media), “a fan” or “what somebody else is thinking” in terms of being
disappointed with him, a 27-year-old failed power prospect with a career OPS
under .700 in more than 1,000 plate appearances?

Let’s see…who did we miss here in terms of
passively/aggressively finding people to blame – Ozzie Guillen for dubbing him
“MaTola” (and please read this if you’re wondering where “MaTola” came from or
want to read the most overtly dismissive soundbite from an opposing manager
regarding one player) when he explained his reasoning to leave the RH Peavy in a game
in April of 2010, instead of going to LHP Joe Thornton?

Regardless, LaPorta knows where he stands in the
organization (which isn’t very high) and almost seems resigned to the idea that
he’ll make his way out of the Indians’ organization after the season because he
“can’t control what other people think” and because he’s “not in control of
somebody else’s happiness”. Of course,
he ignores the fact that he had over 1,000 PA as an Indian (Andy Marte had 858
PA for Cleveland) and has numbers that are basically akin to what David
Dellucci did in his time on the North Coast…seriously, look at the numbers for
LaPorta and Dellucci, as an Indian.

But if he’s ignoring it, don’t think that Acta was going to
let this idea that LaPorta is an obvious upgrade to the roster is going to slip
by his desk without throwing in his opinion on it, as he had this to say when MaTola was called up:

“At the beginning, his
(AAA) numbers were a lot better at home than on the road, but the overall
numbers are there…He’s been doing a good job. If you look at the amount of
at-bats he’s had in [Class AAA] the last couple of years, the numbers are
pretty good.

They felt that he was
doing the right things over there. He was having success and hitting mistakes
whenever [pitchers] made mistakes on him. We have to see that translate up
here.”

And there – right there – is why I love Manny Acta.

He basically said that LaPorta’s AAA success came from
“hitting mistakes whenever (pitchers) made mistakes on him” and that “we have
to see that translate up here”, meaning that the organization doesn’t think
that anything’s really changed with MaTola.
He was a mistake-ball hitter in MLB the last couple of years, continued
to be a mistake-ball hitter in AAA (where there are more “mistakes” made by
pitchers) this year and there’s no great confidence that he’s going to be
anything more than that. Ultimately,
we’re still talking about a 27-year-old player with a slugging percentage UNDER
.400 with 30 career HR in 270 games. For
a player that was supposed to be as close-to-MLB ready as he was purported to
be (now almost FOUR years ago), that’s unbelievable.

Now, if fans want to continue to believe that LaPorta is
“close to breaking out” or deserves one last chance to sink or swim as an
Indian, they can have at it. I’ll be
pleased to know that the Indians are not similarly deluding themselves as an
organization into believing that he is something that he is not.

So, if LaPorta isn’t the answer in LF (and he isn’t), than
what is?

To date, Indians’ LF have posted a cumulative line of .184
BA / .286 OBP / .272 SLG / .588 OPS with only 9 XBH in 239 PA on the whole
season. That’s
impossibly bad (plus an OBP higher than a SLG) and though the Nationals’ LF
have a lower OPS, that XBH total is jarring to see past the quarter pole, particularly
when Carlos Quentin just returned from the DL for San Diego and has 9 XBH in only 35 PA…but
I’ll get to that.

That said, on this island of depression, what are the
Indians to do if Grady isn’t coming back anytime soon, if Matt LaPorta is Matt
LaPorta, if Shelley Duncan is a great RH bat off the bench and clubhouse
presence but not an everyday player and if Johnny Damon has just recently
started to look like an actual MLB player again?

For now, I think that you put Johnny Damon out there every
day (fielding and throwing…um, “concerns” and all) to see if he’s able to
settle into a groove. You may be
fighting back down the bile after reading that, but he’s looked better since
coming back from paternity leave and he’s actually performed pretty well as of
late (.976 OPS since May 27th…small sample size louder than ever),
so I’d be inclined to see what he could do through the month of July. Let’s not forget that Damon had a decent year
last year for the Rays (16 HR, .744 OPS) and while much of that came as a DH,
concerns that he’s simply chasing 3,000 have been allayed a little as he’s
sitting on a BB% this year that would rank as the highest in his career if it
were to remain steady.

Additionally, Damon was unquestionably rushed to the team (he’s
played in all of 29 games so far) and – if this talk of him using the month of
May as Spring Training are anywhere close to true – I’d let out the rope on him
and see if his early June success can continue.
Damon’s 2011 rate stats compare favorably to those from LaPorta (similar
HR%, lower K%, higher BB%) and Damon actually had a higher SLG (.418) than
LaPorta did (.412) last year, so this talk of “power potential” for LaPorta is
more than just a little overblown, at least in terms of thinking that he’s
going to hit for more power than Damon in MLB on a consistent basis.

Yes, Damon’s defense is…um…“suspect” and he’s LH, but
everyone remembers LaPorta in LF, right?
Do we need to be reminded of that, in the way that his recent
“performance” at the plate since being recalled has brought back his 2011 plate
appearances memories so vividly?

Also, while some paint LaPorta as the RH bat that will solve
all that ails the Indians against LHP (or at least help), remember this:

MaTola vs. LHP – career (269 PA)

.209 BA / .297 OBP / .319 SLG / .617 OPS

MaTola vs. RHP – career (750 PA)

.247 BA / .304 OBP / .420 SLG / .724 OPS

Other than seeing that LaPorta has actually hit RHP better
than LHP in his career to date, this is shown here to point out that MaTola’s
career OPS vs. LHP (.617) would rank him 8th when compared to how
current Indians are faring against LHP this season, including behind Shelley
Duncan. So, as much as LaPorta may have
mashed his way out of Columbus, my guess is that he’s going to find himself
there soon enough as he is not an answer – short-or-long-term.

If it seems that I’m beating up LaPorta unnecessarily, I do
so only because it needs to be pointed out that he is NOT a better option than
Johnny Damon, who should be given a longer leash than what many fans want to
give him because he still represents the best current option on the roster in
LF, age considered. Maybe that causes
you to shudder a little bit (and we all know how we got here) and realizing
he’s the best current option is certainly damning with faint praise, but this
is the situation that the Indians find themselves in as it pertains to LF and I
wouldn’t be surprised if the Indians keep Damon (with a sprinkling of Duncan)
going until mid-to-late-July. At that
point, they can evaluate Damon’s contributions to date, see where Grady is (or
is not) and perhaps explore the Trade Market.

In fact, the MLBTR piece provides a nice
encapsulation of the Quentin situation and the dearth of power that could be
available, driving up his price tag, quite nicely:

When GM Josh Byrnes
acquired Quentin last December, he sent minor league left-hander Pedro
Hernandez and right-hander Simon Castro, a former top-100 prospect,
to the White Sox. The Padres may be able to acquire better prospects if Quentin’s
knee holds up and his bat returns to form. As I mentioned before, there doesn’t
seem to be much power on the trade market (Alfonso Soriano could probably
be had, but he earns $18MM in 2013 and 2014, which makes things messy). And it
could take a while for bats to become available because more teams than ever
are within striking distance of a playoff berth.

Once Quentin plays
enough to show he is healthy, Byrnes could make him available and wait for
other teams to start making offers. The Indians, Orioles and Dodgers are among
the teams that might have interest in adding a right-handed hitting outfielder
with power in the next eight weeks. If Quentin is healthy the Padres may come
out ahead this summer and trade him for better prospects than the ones they
surrendered to acquire him.

Certainly, the Indians would be on the list of interested
teams, but with Quentin coming off the DL and already having hit 5 HR, you’d
have to think that his price tag is being driven up with each XBH. Which brings us to the question of what young
players the Indians would even have to trade for Quentin’s services?

In mid-May, it was suggested that it would take “more middle-infield depth in the high minors”, which the Indians actually have in
players like Cord Phelps and Jason Donald.
Don’t take that to mean that Quentin could be had Phelps/Donald and Dave
Huff and Trevor Crowe and…hmm, let’s see what other ancillary player can I
think of that would not interest the Padres at all as I look (in jest) for the
ESPN Trade Machine…

However, the Indians and Padres have been trade partners fairly recently, with the Friars being able to turn some of the Tribe’s young
relievers (Mike Adams, Mujica, and Cory Burns…who is torching AAA bats right
now) of the past into useful pieces. Of
course, the Padres have been able to turn LOTS of arms into useful relievers
and you could certainly argue that the Indians simply wouldn’t have the chips
to cash in for Quentin (even as a rental) that would be more attractive than
offers from other teams. But if the
Padres are looking for middle infielders and/or power arms to fill in their
bullpen, the Indians might (stress on that word) be able to perhaps find a
match. Don’t forget that Padres’ GM Josh
Byrnes cut his teeth in Cleveland and that the Indians brought him in to find a position for him when he was fired in Arizona a few years back. That may mean nothing in terms of a Quentin
trade, but that relationship does exist, even if the Indians are going to have
to sweeten any pot with more than just happy memories in Cleveland.

If it does come down to sweetening the pot for a guy like
Quentin (who must have been the only Stanford guy NOT drafted by the Indians in
the 2000s), I would think that any prospect not named Lindor would be fair game
for me and I’d probably include that top layer of relievers (Barnes, Lee, etc.)
with the exception of Hagadone because Quentin fills a need for now and for
later. Remember, Hafner’s money comes off of the books after this season, as does Grady’s, and there’s no guarantee that Carmona/Hernandez is going to be around in 2013, so the Indians could have
the wherewithal to trade for Quentin with the idea that they’d offer him the
contract that they should have offered to Willingham, filling a massive hole in
LF and in their lineup in the process.

It was thought at the time Quentin was traded to the Padres
that a stumbling block to the Indians acquiring him was the…um, contentious
relationship between the Front Offices at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario
and on the South Side. Don’t think that
the Indians wouldn’t love to slot Quentin into their lineup for purposes more
than just his bat. Certainly, he’s had
injury issues in the past (he’s never played in more than 131 games in a
season), so there would be cause for concern in the long-term for a
now-29-year-old Quentin, but he would represent a pretty compelling option on the FA market after this season and being able to negotiate with him by
acquiring him could cause the Indians to give up more than they’d usually be
willing to give up for a two-month rental.

That all said (and delving into the Trade Market WAY more
than I wanted to in mid-June), there’s a long way to go in this march and
there’s a possibility that Johnny Damon has found his stroke once again or that
Grady Sizemore’s body somehow stops betraying him and the Indians find themselves
in the market for a starting pitcher instead of a RH bat for LF. That’s what we saw occur last July and, while
the results of that addition have been…um, underwhelming, it wouldn’t be all
that surprising to see a similar sequence of events if the Indians find
themselves at or near the top of the AL Central come mid-to-late-July.

Then again, just staying at or near the top of the AL
Central into mid-to-late-June is what should be the focus now as the starting
pitching needs to start carrying their weight on this team, as much as all of
our eyes keep finding their way back to LF over and over again.

Posted by
Paul Cousineau

4 comments:

Yeah, it's very Nomo-esque. He told me that some of the Japanese guys were the inspiration for the delivery. The stuff itself is average, but plays up due to the deception in the delivery. Not sure if he'll be able to maintain the success against ML hitters once they've seen him a couple of times, but definitely has the chance to be an above-average reliever his first couple of times through the league.

I like the Quentin idea. I also think we need another starting pitcher especially if Masterson can't turn it around. I realize I'm getting ahead of myself talking postseason, but the idea of Jimenez, Masterson, Lowe, and Tomlin does not seem we could get deep into the postseason with that. While we're swapping with the Padres, maybe they could throw in Volquez? Don't know if we have the farm system to entice this trade. Just a thought.