U.S. Suspects India Prepares To Conduct Nuclear Test

By TIM WEINER

Published: December 15, 1995

WASHINGTON, Dec. 14—
American intelligence experts suspect India is preparing for its first nuclear test since 1974, Government officials said today.

The United States is working to discourage it, fearing a political chain reaction.

In recent weeks, spy satellites have recorded scientific and technical activity at the Pokaran test site in the Rajasthan desert. But intelligence experts said they could not tell whether the activity involved preparations for exploding a nuclear bomb or some other experiment to increase India's expertise in making nuclear weapons.

"We're not sure what they're up to," a Government official said. "The big question is what their motive is. If their motive is to get scientific knowledge, it might be months or years before they do the test. If it's for purely political reasons, it could be this weekend."

[India issued a strong denial on Friday that it was preparing a nuclear test.

["There is no truth in this," said Arif Khan, chief spokesman for the External Affairs Ministry. He said the intelligence agencies apparently spotted military activities that were not related to India's nuclear program. The Government routinely declares its nuclear program to be "peaceful" in nature.

["There are routine military exercises in this area because it is close to the border with Pakistan," Mr. Khan said.]

The Congress Party of India, which has governed the country most of the years since independence in 1947, is facing a serious challenge from a right-wing Hindu nationalist party. United States Government officials say a nuclear weapons test could be used by the Congress Party as a symbol of its political potency.

Despite efforts to persuade the world's nuclear powers to sign a comprehensive test-ban treaty, China and France have tested nuclear weapons in recent months. If India follows suit, its neighbor, Pakistan, with which it has tense relations, may also test a nuclear weapon, Government and civilian experts said. Neither country has signed the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.

"It's going to have a nuclear snowball effect," said Gary Milhollin, director of the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control in Washington and a leader civilian expert on the spread of nuclear weapons. "It also jeopardizes the possibility that the world will sign a comprehensive test ban treaty next year."

A State Department official who spoke on condition of anonymity said that if India exploded a nuclear bomb, it would be "a serious setback to nonproliferation efforts."

"The United States is committed to the early completion of a comprehensive test ban," the official said. "We are observing a moratorium on nuclear testing and we have called upon all nations to demonstrate similar restraint."

But not all nations have heard the call.

India says publicly that it wants the complete elimination of nuclear weapons. But its nuclear hawks argue that the United States and Russia will never live up to that ideal and that a comprehensive test ban that is not linked to drastic reductions in the world's nuclear arsenals could leave India a third-rate nuclear power.

Mr. Milhollin said India did not have a great archive of test data for nuclear weapons that could be mounted on a warhead and placed on a missile. "Once the test ban treaty comes in, they will be data-poor," he said. "A test now would supply them data, it would be a tremendous plus for the Congress Party, it would give them a big boost in the elections."

Political pressure for a nuclear test is building among India's right wing. "They are saying: 'What are we sitting around for? Why should we sign a test ban treaty not linked to the reduction of nuclear weapons?' " said Selig S. Harrison, an expert on South Asia at the Carnegie Endownment for International Peace.

In 1974 India exploded what was belived to be a Hiroshima-sized bomb equal to 12,000 tons of TNT, which it called a "peaceful nuclear explosion." It renewed its program some years later, and in 1989 the Director of Central Intelligence, William H. Webster, testified that India had resumed research on thermonuclear weapons.

While India has sought to limit the nuclear abilities of China, it is most concerned about a program in Pakistan, although Pakistan has not ackowledged it has one. The two countries have had three wars, unending political tensions and constant border disputes since the partition of India in 1947 after its independence from Britain.

Administration officials said they feared that any test would create pressure on Pakistan to follow suit.

"We look at this in a balance with Pakistan," a White House official said.