Does The "Ring Of Fire" Guarantee At Least One Magnitude 8 Aftershock, And Ten Of Magnitude 7 Or Higher?

For Japan, it's nowhere near over, at least if the Pasadena Jet Propulsion Laboratory (creator of such brainiac things as the Mars rovers) is correct. While Japan has experienced numerous magnitude 5 and 6 aftershocks (405 in total to be precise), the big ones are still to come: "Japan's largest quake on record, which hurled a 7-meter (23-foot) wave
landward after one plate slid beneath another off the coast of Sendai,
had an 8.9 magnitude. The aftershocks will likely include at least one
measuring 8 and 10 of magnitude 7, JPL geophysicist Andrea Donnellan
said. All are many times larger than the 6.3-level New Zealand quake in
February that leveled the Christchurch business district and killed 160." Should we get more 8+ earthquakes, the likelihood of further tsunamis unfortunately jumps exponentially. And while scientists have long been expecting "the Big One" to hit Los Angeles so far without success, unfortunately carrying over that logic to Japan is more than naive.

Pressure levels changed on the undersea plates extending 500 kilometers to the east and west of the epicenter, likely provoking aftershocks “for a long time,” said Eric Fielding, a principal scientist at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. The Pasadena, California, research group is using data from Japan to help scientists forecast follow-on shifts in crustal plates.

“The segments south and north of the Sendai rupture zone will have large increased stresses,” Donnellan, a principle investigator who models probable shifts in the Earth's crust, said in written answers to Bloomberg. “While a few large earthquakes will occur soon after the last one, most will occur at much longer times, typically years, after the last one.”

Predicting earthquakes with precision eludes scientists, who until recently lacked data to improve forecasts. The disaster will aid research into how the mosaic of plates around the world can shift and trigger shocks, building on measurements from Indonesia in 2004 and Chile in 2010 that gave geophysicists insight into how the biggest tremors change Earth's geology.

Japan, the world's third-largest economy, lies on the so- called Ring of Fire, an arc of volcanoes and fault lines surrounding the Pacific Basin including Sumatra, site of the Indonesian quake.

“Before 2004, most geophysicists taught that only limited parts of the Ring of Fire could be capable of generating really giant earthquakes,” Antonio Piersanti, head researcher of the Rome-based Italian Institute of Geology and Vulcanology, said in an e-mailed statement. “After the Sumatra event and especially after this last event maybe we should seriously consider the possibility that any part of the Ring of Fire could generate a 9-plus earthquake,” Piersanti said.

Combined that with another disclosure from the BBC blog and one can see why outbound flights from Tokyo may soon become a very high margin product:

UK nuclear expert John Large tells the
BBC that the wind direction off the east coast of Japan is moving round
to the south, which could take any radioactive plume from the Fukushima
plant over the Tokyo region.

Should Reactor 2 explode, that will likely be the tipping point for a major demographic shift as Tokyo citizens say enough is enough.

True.... a little anecdote, was thinking of taking advantage on deals for Tokyo trip about 3 weeks ago. It was a great deal, hotel + airfare for 2 for $2200... Glad I decided not to! Was also toying with a trip to Vancouver Island this summer, I think I will hold off for a bit...

As one that lives within a few miles of the San Andreas and crosses it frequently on the I-15 through the Cajon Pass, having the shift of Japan by eight feet closer to my backyard makes me wonder when the stress will pop.

If that side of the plate moved that much, surely there had to be at least a couple inches movement on the westward side.

I"m in the High Desert, North of the San Bernardino mountains. I expect a similar magnitude earthquake here would pretty much turn the sand over...with everything buried underneath.

And our "craftsman" built houses would be kindling in the first minute. I'm astonished at the housing that withstood that earthquake in Japan (only to be wiped out by the tsunami). Nothing like a Japanese product for durability.

National Geographic did a new show last night talking about a super quake hitting the USA - P NW or New Madrid - both are due plus new Madrid last blew in 1811- super moon a coming plus a solstice....on 3-20 :) silver bitchez

This morning some talking head on CNBC was discussing just in time delivery issues in Japan. He was saying that if the problems get worse in Japan it will start affecting companies in countries around the world that depend upon Japan for many JiT components. Even though there is plenty of competition out there and even some slack in manufacturing it can't all be switched over via a phone call in two days.

If they get the time. Exponential growth in money supply mixed with collapse in the supply of goods may create massive inflation. Any increase in intrest rate now is going to kill the demand side of the economy. Noone is going to be dumb enough to risk capital investments in this climate.

k-gate, it's an equinox, not a solstice, but neither matter as much as lunar distance from earth in terms of tidal forces. Is that what you meant by Super Moon? I have to look it up now....yep, 221,712 miles on March 20, about 7.6% closer than average.(courtesy Wolfram Alpha)

Pacific Northwest makes more sense - friend of mine on the island of Hawaii reported a quake hours after the the Japan quake, which ironically may have helped mitigate the tsunami's impact there.

Last major PWN quake, at magnitude 7.1, was in 2001, near where I lived at the time in Olympia. The faultline slippage likely sent energy impulses across the planet, very likely destabilizing the NA plate's junctions along the Juan de Fuca plate. It wouldn't be at all surprising for a major quake to hit JdF or along the Cascadia boundaries. And of course, Seattle itself is basically built on top of a mud flat.

Not all of it, just parts, mostly near the water. There are lots of hilly spots that aren't liable to liquifaction effects. The local newspaper printed a map the last time there was a quake showing the relative riskiness of all parts of the city--most of it wasn't particularly risky.

Live in PNW and trust me, I've been hearing that for the last 15 years I've lived here, only difference is that now they have an excuse to put that show back on since they know it will scare people more than usual

The risk numbers posted for the US have indicated that a section of San Andreas fault is the probability champ. The New Madrid is due also but population is not as concentrated in the danger zone,

IMO, the Japanese will deal with this better than the Russians. Remediation of this kind of accident will require patience, technical skill and sacrifice. Since they are more or less a large extended single tribe, the will to sacrifice will be a factor.

Anyone here know personally a Japanise native? I have known two. Both were organized, disciplined and focused on the work that needs to be done. They don't stop. One lady was the realtor that handled the sale of our big house and helped location of the Condo we now live in closing two months before she died of cancer that she had said not a word about.

their blatant spiritualism crushes me. which probably disturbs you. having said that "there are non-recoverable realities." a "sucks to be you" understanding of things perhaps which "the sacrificing side of the USA has immediately responded to." that says to me "this be the 2% of the world economy that impacts the other 90%"--but we shall see. the obvious "mere character" of these people has been duly observed by the world. since we are talking God however "no good deed goes unpunished." and isn't that what we really see?

Got my order into Swanson on Saturday morning, before it went back-order ;) Wife didn't believe me that it would, by Sunday evening, be out of stock. Won $10 on the bet, but wanted her to bet $20 (the house limit). Collecting this evening, hopefully favors in lieu of cash ;) .

Exactly. The total radiation released from Chernobyl was about 1/1000th that released from the nuclear testing conducted in the ocean in the 50's.

Iodine is the only thing any non-Japanese person really needs to worry about. Everything else is either too light or too heavy, and will head for the upper atmosphere or the bottom of the ocean never to be seen again.

On the plus side, they have plenty of firewood to burn for warmth... also thought it was odd the distress signal was written in english... best of luck to em. I honestly think they'll be as resilient as humans can be... I fully expect them to endure... and rather well.

>>>The world's fifth-largest, 8.9 magnitude quake was caused when the Pacific tectonic plate dove under the North American plate, which shifted Eastern Japan towards North America by about 13 feet (see NASA's before and after photos at right). The quake also shifted the earth's axis by 6.5 inches, shortened the day by 1.6 microseconds, and sank Japan downward by about two feet. As Japan's eastern coastline sunk, the tsunami's waves rolled in.<<<

That explains that rolling blanket of death that would not be stopped as it literally consumed the countryside. It just seemed to me like gravity was causing the water to wash over the land, as if it had shifted in elevation. Not sure if that's geologically how it happened but it makes sense to me. That water just would not be stopped. Something was forcing it onward.

as far as peak oil, I don't expect most people to grasp it...nothing can or will change that.

If we give up nuclear then people will just find some boogeyman to blame for the more rapid slide down, and CD will post another 10,000 word diatribe on...something.

I just marvel at the perspicacity of the HINDsight of so many people who had no foresight whatsoever and how their "thoughts" slosh back and forth in their head so uncontrollably, forming their own tsunamis.

I think you have to give up nuclear. It's socially toxic . . . ain't gonna happen in this ripening era of distrust. Even Gov Walker, Uncle Warren and Briilliant Bill Gates working as a team couldn't revive this corpse.

Well... to put it bluntly, we just got fucked. Nuclear was going to be a viable bridge till CSP could ramp up. The answer will no doubt be to furiously continue our experiment in terraforming Earth into Venus.

I think that within days, the hysteria will die down and lots of ZHers are going to be going "now wtf do I do with all this canned ham and KI?!?!?!"

There is no logical outcome in which nuclear goes away simply because there isn't any alternative. There just isn't and we would be wise to make peace with that.

As for other visions...what, you want me to dream something up? I like unicorns. As for the real world, nuclear is IT. There are alternative plant technologies like PBMR that have far fewer drawbacks, but the emphasis will be that FUD1 was a 40 year old design about to be decommissioned and all that. And, it was. If they can avoid catastrophic core ejection, they will rightly say, look, we got hit by an apocalypse Act of God here and we still pulled it out, nobody got killed, nothing severe happened. That demonstrates the safety of this technology.

If we were to go the oil/gas route, that is going to collide head on into the export land model with a very dull thud.

The real problem is that idiots with agendas like the various "experts" cited around here are giving out statements to further their own goals. And morons who can't tell the truth from fiction don't know what to believe and so they latch onto whatever makes them feel more self-righteous.

There is NO WAY that wind power and greentech gets us there...it's simply not feasible at present. Those who say otherwise are LIARS.

The real problem is that if you sat these people down in a room, they can think of NO technology which meets their criteria; they literally demand unicorns. They are not in the solution game, they are in the complain and bitch game. And they expect their tantrums to be met with candy like worked when they were 4 years old.

i'm of course a big fan of "new words" so when i heard the term "pre-shock" from the magnitude 7 that hit "just prior to the 9" i took note. there's "always room for something new." and there you have it ! "pre-shock"! kind of like "pre-crime" i imagine--save for the fact "it's just an act of nature" and "has nothing to do with our actions as human beings."

You're doing a great job with your manical "I'm just trying to save you assholes from yourselves" outbursts Trav. You're ALL CAPS screaming on other threads are particularly soothing to us insane plebs. You don't need any help from me.

And exactly how does one call someone out in an anonymous comment section of an anonymous blog? Is it pistols at ten paces or maybe just a good old fashioned pissing contest? If that's the case I concede defeat to your bloody urine stream. BTW you might want to get that looked at.

You my dear Trav are just a school yard bully who helpfully informs your next victim that all your doing in educating him just before you beat the shit out of him. For you ZH is your own personal wet dream where you can run amok and say what you please to whomever you please and whenever it suits your mood. All in the name of fixing everything that you claim is wrong in the world while straightening out all those idiots you must reluctantly tolerate.

You don't suffer fools well and you always get to decide who's the fool. Very convenient Trav. There is no doubt that you are an intelligent person. You're also a prick, opinionated, obnoxious and socially inept. Which explains your constant bullying tactics. What ever floats your boat Trav. I know your type well and most everyone else on ZH does as well. Try being a bit more tolerant, add the words might, could and maybe to your vocabulary and who knows, you might just be voted most improved asshole on ZH this month.

Naw... I like Trav to a point... He makes me seem so reasonable and empathetic...

But seriously, he doesn't suffer fools, he calls out people on opinions when there are facts instead. So he doesn't have charm, in the grand scheme of things here at the Hedge, he is no more offensive than a number of posters. This is fight club after all...

FWIW, I have yet to catch him call out a fool where it was not merited. I can assure you that if he missteps, he will be called out.

Mega-thrusts are well recorded over the past 500 years even without precise measurement. Between written accounts and geological fingerprints they are clearly identifiable. By my count 5 of the 24 most intense recorded quakes have been in the last 7 years. Going forward, these are very poor odds in my opinion.

The region I am most concerned over is Cascadia where not only are things "overdue", the Pacific plate is involved. California is prone to slip-strike, powerful, but not like the mega-thrusts from a subduction zone..

These so called "new data" are nothing more than the earthquakes that happened where the old "scientific data" said they could not as shown here:

“Before 2004, most geophysicists taught that only limited parts of the Ring of Fire could be capable of generating really giant earthquakes,” Antonio Piersanti, head researcher of the Rome-based Italian Institute of Geology and Vulcanology, said in an e-mailed statement. “After the Sumatra event and especially after this last event maybe we should seriously consider the possibility that any part of the Ring of Fire could generate a 9-plus earthquake,” Piersanti said.

haha, totally laughable. Giant earthquakes can now occur ANYWHERE in the Ring of Fire because they recently did! We call this science?

Plate Tectonics has only been around since it was "discovered" in the 1960s. Like many scientific theories, if it hangs around long enough, it will eventually be accepted as fact, even as other theories come along that do a better job of explaning things.

Help me out here, please. While the radiation levels in Fukushima and Miyagi are blocked out, this site is showing that in the nearby Ibaraki district, the levels were a while ago at about 5000 nGy/h, now at 3000 nGy/h. Other places show the normal range, which I believe is some 50 nGy/h. What does this mean from health perspective, if anything?

Thanks, and ya, I know. I was just being facetious, especially to those who say there can be no such thing as an earthquake educed mega trans-pacific tsunami ... While illuminating the interconnectedness of the Pacific rim geologically.

Correct me if i'm wrong. The nukes could easily withstand a 9.0 quake and could also withstand a tsunami. What are the odds that two natural disasters could occur within minutes of each other? Are these the similar odds that the US economy could survive massive money creation and a deep recession/depression...provided they don't occur simultaneously?

Da nice folks at Caltech don't start talking before the brain is engaged. Howievers, when they say something, you have to hear and see it all, or the news report won't work. No soudbytes or you'll miss it.