Preface

The following study, based entirely on open sources, was on the verge of
being completed at the time of the Tokyo subway attack in March 1995. As a
result, a fairly lengthy "Postscript" has been added to it,
incorporating material about the Tokyo attack and subsequent incidents. The
main body of the text has not otherwise been altered, however.

Introduction

Most of the literature on possible terrorist use of weapons of mass
destruction has focused on so-called "nuclear terrorism." Entire
books have been written on the subject. Even segments of the public at large
are aware of certain aspects of this question, such as the existence of the US
Nuclear Emergency Search Team (NEST) designed to counter threats or acts of
nuclear terrorism. By contrast, comparatively little information can be found
in the public domain on the possible terrorist use of chemical or biological
agents, even though most specialists agree that the likelihood of such use is
greater than in the case of nuclear materials.

For the most part, speculation about "CB terrorism" has been dealt
with perfunctorily within broader discussions of "high-technology
terrorism," "new technology terrorism," "mass destruction
terrorism," "super-violence," or "nationally-disruptive
terrorism" and the like. Furthermore, much of the speculation on this
subjectwhich has worked its way into suspense novels and movie thrillershas
been derided by more sober analysts as overly sensationalist in nature.

Nevertheless, over the past two decades or so, a small body of professional
literature on the subject of chemical-biological terrorism has accumulated. The
object of this paper is, first, to review the existing body of unclassified
information in an attempt to ascertain how real is the CB terrorist threat; and
second, to examine the evolution of one, classified intergovernmental effort to
deal with this question, including (by way of comparison) its own conclusions as
to the reality of the threat.

The first part of the paper, then, will seek answers to (or at least try to
shed some light on) the following set of questions: What factors or
characteristics of chemical/biological agents might incline terrorists to their
use or threat of use? How likely is it that a terrorist group would be capable
of such an attack? (In particular, what degree of expertise would be required?)
Which particular agents would be most likely to be used? How would these be
acquired, and what means of delivery employed? Have there, in fact, been
incidents of the use or threat of use of these weapons in the past? If not, why
not? Based on current trends in terrorist operations and the world at large,
what is the likelihood of future use of these agents by terrorists? Which kind
of terrorist groups would be most likely to avail themselves of this type of
warfare? And what, if anything, can be done to defend against such use? In
short: How real is the threat posed by chemical or biological terrorism?

Because biological and chemical agents are so dissimilar, each category will
be dealt with separately before the paper turns to an evaluation of their common
elements or characteristics.