Analysis: So, I cannot comment on the Corsi because I don’t know what it looks like with the power plays taken out. I am pretty sure this will be relatively accurate as I don’t remember Michigan registering many power play attempts on net.

It was not one of Michigan’s better offensive games by volume, but they had a number of good chances. Quinn Hughes was unbelievably unlucky tonight. He hit the post twice and barely missed the net on another wide open shot from the slot. The DMC line was dominant. When they were on the ice, OSU struggled to get the puck out of the zone, gave up many good looks at the net, and struggled to skate. As the lines filtered down, OSU’s chances increased.

The Wolverines didn’t have an overwhelming offensive performance, but they played well enough and created enough chances to win. Sean Romeo just played up to his standard, and Michigan drew an unfriendly post. Also, Cooper Marody’s goal in the second period might have been the Goal of the Year. He grabbed the puck, dropped it, got tripped, twisted his body, and roofed it over Romeo.

Hmmmm. What can we extract from all of this? Michigan is 0-4 against the Buckeyes this season. During the first couple of games, Michigan was in the midst of its defensive crater. As you can see, in the second series in Columbus, Michigan had a much better possession rate. In Game 3, they gave up two power play goals (surprise!) and at least one odd-man-rush goal. The final game was pretty even, but Lavigne had a woofer or two. Also, Michigan has scored on Sean Romeo six times in four games. Eeeeeeck. So, where are we now?

Ohio State Preview

PWR

Corsi

PP%

PK%

Players Drafted

Skaters >.75 PPG

GAA

Save%

Michigan

7th

23rd

18%

76%

8

3: Marody, Calderone, Hughes

2.78 (Lavigne)

.910 (Lavigne)

Ohio State

4th

16th

24%

91%

3

4: Jobst, Laczynski, Weis, Joshua

2.08 (Romeo)

.925 (Romeo)

Ohio State is really good. They do not give up goals; they’re 4th overall in goals/game. To pair with that, they’re 11th in scoring goals (Michigan is 7th!). So, they put pucks into the net, they keep pucks out of the net, they convert on the power play, and they do not surrender goals on the penalty kill. Also, Sean Romeo is Cale Morris Lite. What is this, football?

So, what is there to do? I don’t know, man. It’s encouraging that Michigan was able to control play in the last couple of games down there. They’re going to need to play their best, most well-rounded game of the year. Also, as much as I disagree with the single-game semi-final format, hooray that Michigan doesn’t have to beat them twice!

[After THE JUMP: qualifying Michigan's most well-rounded game of the year and a look at PWR and relevant teams around the country]

Remember the many years we spent refreshing ESPN’s Bubble Watch only to be disappointed when the Tommy Amaker led teams landed in the NIT? A few years later that disappointment turned to joy when we landed a 10-seed in 2009, or an 8-seed in 2011. Now we spend our time refreshing Bracket Matrix, retweeting Ken Pomeroy and endlessly justifying our two-seed over MSU and other Midwestern squads.

As of this writing, Bracket Matrix has Michigan a 3-seed and the 12th overall team, the AP Poll has the Wolverines seventh and Ken Pomeroy has the squad ranked ninth. Of course, none of those guarantee anything come selection Sunday. And while the committee has an obligation to put the top 16-teams as close to home as possible, that may not be logistically possible with MSU, Purdue, Cincinnati and Xavier all so close. Thankfully, other sites in Nashville and Pittsburgh give us hope.

Here are a few other things to root for this week: (note, I left out a lot of games that could impact RPI. Of course we want CMU to win the MAC and a bunch of other things, but I tried to focus on bigger games)

Monday

San Francisco over Gonzaga
San Francisco is so bad, chances are you don’t know their nickname. Okay, they aren’t that bad. Currently 18-14 and 4th in the WCC. Also, they are the Dons and everyone on their team is named Don. Maybe. Anyway, Gonzaga is a top-10 Ken Pom unit but a 5 in the matrix. Not a huge threat at the moment but wouldn’t it be cool if they lost anyway? Yes it would. Also lets root for BYU over St. Mary’s because we don’t need Gonzaga to beat a top 25 team this week. Maybe it won’t matter anyway, but why take the chance.

Edit: The Dons lost. Badly. But CMU won its first round matchup vs. Bowling Green. The No. 8 seed in the MAC plays No. 1 seed Buffalo on Thursday.

Tuesday

Pittsburgh over Notre Dame
There is like a .1% chance this happens. Pittsburgh is a winless piece of trash. But what better way to devalue MSU’s early season win over Notre Dame. The Irish were banged up all season sure, but this wouldn’t hurt.
Edit: Holy crap ND only won by three!

Anyone over Gonzaga or St. Mary’s
See above. Tuesday would be the WCC finals.
Edit: Gonzaga beat BYU

Wednesday

California over Stanford
Simply for RPI purposes to get Penn State to 75 and Quadrant 1.

Anyone over North Carolina
While they beat Michigan head to head, they are a two seed in the bracket matrix. Losing early to a bad team could drop them. The winner of Syracuse/Wake Forest awaits and upset here would do the trick. If this doesn’t happen Wednesday, we again root against UNC Thursday when they play Duke

Texas over Iowa State
We want the Longhorns to play themselves squarely in to the tournament. Currently projected as an 11-seed by the Bracket Matrix but with some wins, a more quality victory for UM. Also can help on Thursday.

Thursday

Duke over UNC
If (when) UNC wins Tuesday, they get Duke again. A loss here doesn’t hurt that much, but doesn’t help either. Likely not enough to drop them behind UM. Root for a 42-point loss, here.

Some Trashbag Team over Xavier
Hopefully woeful St. Johns beats also woeful Georgetown. I only say this because St. Johns stormed over a few top teams earlier this year. A win vs. Xavier could bump the Musketeers down a peg in the pecking order before selection Sunday.

Texas or Iowa State over Texas Tech
Here’s where things get interesting. The Big 12 has a lot of teams around Michigan. And while Kansas or Texas Tech aren’t necessarily competing for the same region as Michigan isn’t it just easier if every other team loses? Of course, if top Big 12 teams start winning, they can rack up quality wins. Texas Tech could stay on the three line or move up. Same with other teams like West Virginia. Texas Tech getting knocked out early wouldn’t hurt.

Baylor over West Virginia
See above.

A team from Oklahoma Over Kansas
See above.

Colorado or ASU over Arizona
On the other side of the world, but also on the 4-line. Jumping Michigan with a conference title could happen. Things are gotten get sweaty either way (that’s a Sean Miller joke).

LSU over Miss. State
We lost to this LSU team in what feels like three seasons ago. It would be cool if they won four games in four days and made the loss look less bad. Also would be cool if Northwestern could go back in time and beat like four ranked teams.

Friday

Anyone over West Virginia or Texas TechHere’s where it REALLY gets interesting. While the Big 12 is still not in the Midwest (unless we are talking football expansion – bring on Oklahoma, and go home Rutgers!), we want TTU and WVU to lose. Since Kansas is on the one-line, we would root for Kansas over either team here. All things considered, if Kansas can’t win, then we maybe want Texas Tech because WVU is closer to the Midwest and we want to stay ahead of them? Honestly, this is complete guess. I have no idea.

Anyone over Xavier
This one is the conference semifinals, so not likely that a loss here would drop Xavier at all. But there are no Big Ten games to watch, what else are you going to do? Root against these guys for fun.

SMU or UCONN over Cincinnati
Maybe the UCONN women will show up and be beating Cincy 43-5 like happened in the first half of the women’s tournament on this evening (Monday). Cincy losing would be great to help position Michigan better on the two-line and keep them home.

Tulane or Temple over Wichita State
It is only fun to root for Wichita State when it is at the expense of another team, like Kansas, Kansas or Kansas. If Tulane or Temple can win, we can avoid a Wichita State/Cincy rematch which could propel a team higher.

LSU or Miss. State over TennesseeIf LSU makes it here we have two reasons to root for the Tigers. It makes Michigan look incrementally less bad, and Tennessee could get further away from the two-line opening up Nashville for another school. UT is currently on the three line, one spot above Michigan. Having them lose would definitely move Michigan up in some brackets.

Alabama or Texas A&M over Auburn
This would be a prime matchup to unclutter the top of the standings even though Auburn is in the South. But directions don’t matter to your rooting interests. Just root for the underdogs won’t you? Auburn like Tennessee is on the three line so if both lose it is triple good because it is always good when the SEC loses at things.

UCLA/Stanford or ASU over Arizona
Same as above. We just don’t want Arizona to get hot because first, Sean Miller will get sweaty and second, we want Michigan to be no. 1 in the standings and no. 1 in our hearts.

Saturday

Anyone vs. Cincinnati
It’s getting late early in the AAC semifinals. If Cincy wins here they will be well positioned against UM no matter what. And even a loss here may not be that bad unless it is against a terrible team – like if Pittsburgh somehow gets relegated to the AAC in the next 5 days.

Anyone vs. Wichita State
Somewhat the same as above.

Random SEC Yokels over Auburn and Tennessee
Auburn and Tennessee are on opposite sides of the bracket so they could both end up playing on Saturday and Sunday. The further they go the worse it is for Michigan. So if they can lose to some terrible team that got hot (Georgia?) then that wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. If both teams make the finals, I don’t know what you root for. Maybe a player walkout/NCAA protest?

Sunday

Cincinnati vs. Wichita StateIf this happens, I think we want Cincinnati here. While it wouldn’t be ideal for Michigan, we also don’t want to get jumped by Wichita State. I’m not sure it would happen, but this is MGOBLOG, we plan for the worst!

Ken Pom/Bracket Matrix over the Committee
We know Ken Pom loves him some UM. But will the committee? Let’s hope so.

TLDR: Root for all the underdogs unless Kansas and Cincy get hot in which case, root for them to beat down other solid squads like Wichita State, Texas Tech and West Virginia.

Analysis: Much, much better from the Wolverines tonight, as they tallied six (!) even-strength goals (seven with Slaker’s empty-netter). They eviscerated the Badger defense, getting into the slot and House with ease and finishing their chances.

The DMC line was crushing Wisconsin on the forecheck and Dancs tied the game early after scooping up a loose puck in the House. Becker and Warren added jammer goals down low. Dancs had a snipe as the second period ended, and Luce flung a puck at the net from the blue line that also got through Berry.

One of the keys coming into the series for Wisconsin was to have one of their goalies steal a game. That did not happen at all. In total, they gave up 12 goals on 57 shots for a save % of .790. That’s not going to win many games or series. Michigan went into Clear, Dump, and Change Mode with a three-goal lead and Wisconsin threw the kitchen sink at the net and pulled their goalie with over four minutes left. That’s why there’s such a discrepancy in the third period. Close Corsi ended up 27-26, Michigan.

Analysis: This is by far the worst even-strength performance of the year. A lot can probably be attributed to the defense, but Michigan just could not keep the puck at all. They did generate some good looks when they could get it; Hayton did not come close to stealing this game. A bit of a spoiler, but if not for Michigan’s power play, they get absolutely run out of their own rink. Hughes did create some nice looks and Calderone was able to finish a garbage goal (his fourth!) midway through the third period, and Michigan hung on after that.