Sunday, December 30, 2012

I'm going to read you the names of a few people who might run for the Republican presidential
nomination in 2016. For each one, please tell me whether you would be very likely, somewhat
likely, not very likely, or not likely at all to support them if they decide to run for the Republican nomination four years from now?

Paul Ryan

Very likely 32%

Somewhat likely 43%

Not very likely 12%

Not likely at all 10%

Chris Christie

Very likely 23%

Somewhat likely 36%

Not very likely 21%

Not likely at all 16%

Marco Rubio

Very likely 28%

Somewhat likely 30%

Not very likely 17%

Not likely at all 16%

Jeb Bush

Very likely 13%

Somewhat likely 38%

Not very likely 23%

Not likely at all 24%

Rand Paul

Very likely 19%

Somewhat likely 29%

Not very likely 25%

Not likely at all 22%

Rick Santorum

Very likely 10%

Somewhat likely 38%

Not very likely 28%

Not likely at all 21%

National survey of 290 Republican and GOP-leaning Independents was
conducted December 17-18, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 6 percentage
points.

I'm going to read you the names of a few people who might run for the Democratic presidential
nomination in 2016. For each one, please tell me whether you would be very likely, somewhat
likely, not very likely, or not likely at all to support them if they decide to run for the Democratic
nomination four years from now?

Hillary Clinton

Very likely 65%

Somewhat likely 20%

Not very likely 8%

Not likely at all 6%

Joe Biden

Very likely 26%

Somewhat likely 40%

Not very likely 21%

Not likely at all 13%

Andrew Cuomo

Very likely 11%

Somewhat likely 45%

Not very likely 25%

Not likely at all 16%

Elizabeth Warren

Very likely 16%

Somewhat likely 36%

Not very likely 26%

Not likely at all 14%

Deval Patrick

Very likely 8%

Somewhat likely 33%

Not very likely 29%

Not likely at all 18%

Brian Schweitzer

Very likely 10%

Somewhat likely 27%

Not very likely 32%

Not likely at all 18%

National survey of 290 Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents was
conducted December 17-18, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 6 percentage
points.

Rubio is strongest in the South and West. In the Northeast, he and Christie run virtually tied at 29-27%. The Midwest may ultimately be the harder nut to crack for Rubio. His working class background may be his strongest connection to the industrial Midwest.

The Chris Christie primary voter appears to lean more toward the middle. Along with Condi Rice, his voters are more likely to support exceptions to the no-new-taxes pledge and they believe that compromise is better for the country. They are less likely to watch Fox News and support TEA party goals.

Allen West and Rand Paul voters in a hypothetical 2016 primary are the strongest supporters of the no-new-taxes pledge at 62% and 60%, respectively. Chris Christie and Condi Rice voters are the most open to exceptions at 44% and 40%, respectively.

Speaking of the TEA party. It is the foundation of Rubio’s support. Approaching half of all TEA supporters (43%) are voting for him.

Rice and Scott Brown are the only candidates who do better among women than men.

Wednesday, December 19, 2012

CNN/ORC Poll on BenghaziAs you may know, in September, terrorists attacked the U.S. consulate in Libya and killed the U.S. ambassador to that country and three other U.S. citizens. Based on what you have read or heard, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Obama administration has handled this matter in the past few months?

Among Registered Voters

Satisfied 42%

Dissatisfied 51%

Among Independents

Satisfied 33%

Dissatisfied 58%

Among Moderates

Satisfied 43%

Dissatisfied 54%

As you may know, immediately after the attack on the U.S. consulate in Libya, some Obama administration officials made inaccurate public statements about that incident. Which of the following statements comes closer to your view:

Among Registered Voters

Those statements were an attempt by the Obama administration to intentionally mislead the American public about that attack 42%

Those statements reflected what the Obama administration believed at the time had occurred based on the unclassified information available 55%

Among Independents

Those statements were an attempt by the Obama administration to intentionally mislead the American public about that attack 48%

Those statements reflected what the Obama administration believed
at the time had occurred based on the unclassified information
available 48%

Among Moderates

Those statements were an attempt by the Obama administration to intentionally mislead the American public about that attack 31%

Those statements reflected what the Obama administration believed
at the time had occurred based on the unclassified information
available 63%

Survey of 620 adults, including a subsample of registered voters, was conducted December 17-18, 2012. The margin
of error is +/- 4 percentage points. Party ID: 34% Democrat; 25%
Republican; 41% Independent.

Please tell me whether you would generally favor or oppose each of the following proposals which some people have made to reduce the amount of gun violence:

A ban on the manufacture, sale and possession of
semi-automatic assault guns, such as the AK-47

Favor 62%

Oppose 37%

Among Men

Favor 50%

Oppose 49%

Among Women

Favor 74%

Oppose 25%

A ban on the sale and possession of equipment known
as high-capacity or extended ammunition clips, which
allow some guns to shoot more than 10 bullets before
they need to be reloaded

Favor 62%

Oppose 37%

Among Men

Favor 53%

Oppose 46%

Among Women

Favor 71%

Oppose 29%

Limiting the number of guns an individual can own

Favor 48%

Oppose 52%

Among Men

Favor 35%

Oppose 65%

Among Women

Favor 61%

Oppose 39%

Have the shootings in Connecticut made you more likely to support stricter gun control laws, less
likely to support stricter gun control laws, or has your opinion on gun control not changed as a
result of the shootings in Connecticut?

More likely 43%

Less likely 7%

No change 50%

Among Men

More likely 35%

Less likely 10%

No change 55%

Among Women

More likely 50%

Less likely 4%

No change 45%

A background check on anyone attempting to purchase
a gun in order to determine whether the prospective
buyer has been convicted of a felony

Favor 95%

Oppose 5%

Preventing certain people, such as convicted felons or
people with mental health problems, from owning guns

Favor 92%

Oppose 8%

Requiring gun owners to register their guns with the
local government

Favor 78%

Oppose 22%

Which of the following statements comes closest to your view:

There should be no restrictions on owning guns 13%

There should be some restrictions on owning guns 71%

All guns should be illegal for everyone except police and authorized personnel 15%

Some people think that the federal government should fund reconstruction from natural disasters like Hurricane Sandy, and worry about how to pay for it later. Others say that the federal government shouldn’t spend money it doesn’t have, even if there is a natural disaster. What comes closer to your view?

Note: This is the highest level of support for more gun control ever measured
by Rasmussen Reports. It’s two points higher than the support measured
in April 2007 following the killings at Virginia Tech. Sixty-nine percent (69%) of Democrats think the United States needs
stricter gun control laws. Sixty-four percent (64%) of Republicans
disagree. Unaffiliated adults are fairly evenly divided.

Does the United States need to take more action to identify and treat mental health issues?

Yes 86%

No 7%

Does the United States need to place limits on violent movies and video games?

Yes 49%

No 37%

Not sure 13%

Note: Most adults under 40 oppose limits on violent video games and movies. Most older adults are in favor of such limits. Can schools ever be made completely safe against violence like the incident in Connecticut?

Yes 20%

No 64%

Not sure 15%

Note:That’s slightly more optimism than Americans felt in February following school shootings in an Ohio high school. Just 12% thought it
was possible to make schools completely safe from such violence at that
time. Last summer,
only nine percent (9%) thought it was possible to make public spaces
that safe following the shootings in a Colorado movie theater.What will do the most to reduce the number of mass murders like the school shootings in Connecticut—stricter gun control laws, more action to treat mental health issues, or limits on violent movies and video games?

More action to treat mental health issues 48%

Stricter gun control laws 27%

Limits on violent movies and video games 15%

Undecided 10%

Note: While 57% of Republicans and 54% of adults not affiliated with either
major party think more action to treat mental health issues will do the
most to prevent incidents like the one in Connecticut, a plurality (45%)
of Democrats sees stricter gun control laws as the most effective
approach.

National survey of 1,000 adults was conducted December 17-18, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.

Inside the numbers:

Women are stronger advocates than men of more mental health treatment, stricter gun control and limits on violent movies and video games. Fifty-four percent (54%) of women favor tougher gun control laws; 54% of men are opposed.

Sixty-four percent (64%) of Americans who own a gun oppose stricter gun control laws. Sixty-one percent (61%) of those who say they don’t own a gun favor such laws.

Eighty-five percent (85%) of Americans have been following news stories about the recent shootings at an elementary school in Connecticut at least somewhat closely. This includes 51% who have been following very closely.

High-capacity ammunition clips, meaning those containing more than 10 bullets

Support 59%

Oppose 38%

Semi-automatic handguns, which automatically re-load every time the trigger is pulled

Support 52%

Oppose 44%

The sale of handguns, except to law enforcement officers

Support 27%

Oppose 71%

What do you think is the best way to reduce gun violence in this country - by passing stricter gun control laws, or by stricter enforcement of existing laws?

Passing new laws 32%

Enforcing existing laws 49%

Thinking about the shooting at a Connecticut elementary school: Do you think this shooting reflects broader problems in American Society, or are things like this just the isolated acts of troubled individuals?

Broader problems 52%

Isolated acts43%

Survey of 602 adults was conducted December 14-16, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 4.5 percentage points.

Inside the numbers:

Among groups, women are more apt to support stricter gun control than are men, by a 12-point margin, 59 vs. 47 percent; support for gun control is much higher in the Northeast and West than in the Midwest and South; and it’s far higher among nonwhites, 72 percent, than among whites, 48 percent.

Political and ideological differences, in particular, are stark: Stricter gun control overall is favored by 74 percent of Democrats but just 29 percent of Republicans; it’s 52 percent among independents, more than half for the first time since 2007. Support, similarly, is 72 percent among liberals and 58 percent among moderates, vs. 38 percent among conservatives.

As noted, however, these gaps narrow on the issue of banning high-capacity ammunition clips. Compared with their views on stricter gun control more generally, support for banning such clips jumps by 11 points among independents, by 16 points among Republicans and by 10 points among conservatives.

Intensity is on the side of supporters of stricter gun control in general – 44 percent of Americans are “strongly” in favor, vs. 32 percent strongly opposed, the widest intensity gap since spring 2007. And on banning high-capacity clips, strong supporters outnumber strong opponents by an 18-point margin, 47 percent vs. 29 percent.

At the same time, the highest intensity is in opposition to banning handguns overall – 56 percent “strongly” opposed, vs. 20 percent strong support.

People who see the Connecticut attack as a sign of broader societal problems are 11 points more apt to support stricter gun control than are those who see the crime as an isolated act, 59 vs. 48 percent. There are similar gaps in support for specific gun control measures; banning high-capacity clips, for instance, is favored by 65 percent of those who see a societal problem, vs. 52 percent of those who don’t.

Hillary Clinton's lead includes a 9-point edge among men,
whom President Obama lost nationally by 7 points,
and an 11-point edge among voters without
a college degree, whom Obama won by just
4 points nationally.

Clinton’s lead among independents is the
same as her overall lead, 53% to 36%, a
strong showing at this early stage. However,
Clinton is by no means a consensus candidate.
She wins just 8% of Republican voters,
while Obama won 6% of the Republican
vote nationwide.

Survey of 1,302 New York State voters was conducted December 5-10,
2012. The margin of error is +/- 2.7 percentage points. Party ID: 46% (44%)
{40%} [42%] (41%) {40%} [41%] (39%) {41%} [40%] Democrat; 21% (22%) {21%}
[22%] (20%) {25%} [21%] (20%) {18%} [22%] Republican; 25% (28%) {30%} [29%]
(31%) {25%} [32%] (33%) {33%} [31%] Independent. Results from the poll conducted September 4-9, 2012 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted July 17-23, 2012 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted May 22-28, 2012 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted March 28 - April 2, 2012 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted February 8-13, 2012 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted December 12-18, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted October 18-24, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted September 13-18, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted August 3-8, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted June 20-26, 2011 are in parentheses. Results from the poll conducted May 24-30, 2011 are in curly brackets. Results from the poll conducted April 5-11, 2011 are in square brackets. Results from the poll conducted February 15-21, 2011 are in parentheses.

Bloomberg/Selzer & Co. 2016 Presidential PollFor each of the following Republicans, please tell me how you would rate them as a person to help the Republican party figure out how to win more races, including the presidency—excellent, good, just fair, or poor.

Chris Christie

Excellent 12%

Good 28%

Just fair 24%

Poor 14%

Marco Rubio

Excellent 13%

Good 18%

Just fair 17%

Poor 18%

Paul Ryan

Excellent 14%

Good 19%

Just fair 21%

Poor 30%

Bobby Jindal

Excellent 8%

Good 16%

Just fair 21%

Poor 17%

Jeb Bush

Excellent 7%

Good 20%

Just fair 23%

Poor 33%

For each of the following Democrats, please tell me how you would rate them as a potential presidential nominee for 2016—excellent, good, just fair, or poor.

Hillary Clinton

Excellent 32%

Good 27%

Just fair 19%

Poor 20%

Joe Biden

Excellent 8%

Good 24%

Just fair 19%

Poor 45%

Andrew Cuomo

Excellent 4%

Good 25%

Just fair 29%

Poor 23%

Rahm Emanuel

Excellent 3%

Good 16%

Just fair 22%

Poor 32%

National survey of 1,000 adults was conducted December 7-10, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points.

Tuesday, December 11, 2012

Given the choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Mike Huckabee, Sarah
Palin, Rand Paul, Condoleezza Rice, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, and Rick
Santorum, who would you most like tosee as the GOP candidate for President in 2016?

I am going to read you a short list of freedoms contained in the Bill of Rights of the U.S. Constitution. For each please let me know how important you think this freedom is.

Freedom of Speech

Very important 85%

Somewhat important 14%

Not very important 1%

Not at all important 0%

Freedom of Religion

Very important 75%

Somewhat important 16%

Not very/Not at all important 7%

Freedom of the Press

Very important 64%

Somewhat important 28%

Not very/Not at all important 7%

The Right to Bear Arms

Very important 49%

Somewhat important 19%

Not very important 19%

Not at all important 11%

National survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted December 8-9, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.Inside the numbers:

There are strong ideological differences of opinion when it comes to these basic freedoms. Liberals place less importance on all four than conservatives do. The most dramatic difference is over the right to bear arms: 90% of conservatives view that constitutional right as at least somewhat important, but 51% of liberals do not. Moderates generally fall somewhere in between on all four rights.

There are significant partisan differences, too. Seventy-one percent (71%) of Republicans and 70% of voters not affiliated with either major party, for example, consider freedom of press to be very important, but just 53% of Democrats agree. Seventy-five percent (75%) of GOP voters and 52% of unaffiliated voters rate the right to bear arms as Very Important, a view shared by only 25% of Democrats.

Voters 40 and over are far more likely than younger voters to consider all four freedoms – speech, religion, press and right to bear arms – to be Very Important.

Given the choices of Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Andrew Cuomo, Martin O’Malley, Deval Patrick, Brian Schweitzer, Mark Warner, and Elizabeth
Warren, who would you most like to see as the Democratic candidate for
President in 2016?

Hillary Clinton 61% (57%)

Joe Biden 12% (14%)

Andrew Cuomo 5% (5%)

Elizabeth Warren 4% (6%)

Martin O'Malley 2% (1%)

Mark Warner 1% (2%)

Deval Patrick 1%

Brian Schweitzer 1% (1%)

Someone else/Undecided 12% (12%)

If neither Hillary Clinton nor Joe Biden ran for President in 2016, who would you most like to see as the Democratic nominee?

Given the choices of Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Rand Paul, Condoleezza Rice, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, and Rick Santorum, who would you most like tosee as the GOP candidate for President in 2016?

Marco Rubio 18% (10%)

Chris Christie 14% (21%)

Paul Ryan 12% (7%)

Jeb Bush 12% (17%)

Mike Huckabee 11% (17%)

Condoleezza Rice 8%

Rand Paul 7% (4%)

Sarah Palin 7%

Rick Santorum 4% (12%)

Someone else/Undecided 7% (10%)

Favorable / Unfavorable {Net}

Paul Ryan 74% (47%) / 15% (11%) {+59%}

Mike Huckabee 73% (69%) / 15% (15%) {+58%}

Condoleezza Rice 73% / 18% {+55%}

Marco Rubio 62% (53%) / 11% (10%) {+51%}

Jeb Bush 63% (71%) / 14% (13%) {+49%}

Sarah Palin 66% (65%) / 24% (26%) {+42%}

Rick Santorum 56% (63%) / 17% (23%) {+39%}

Rand Paul 53% (42%) / 22% (20%) {+31%}

Chris Christie 49% (62%) / 28% (12%) {+21%}

Do you think Reince Priebus should continue in his role as chair of the Republican NationalCommittee or be replaced?

In last month's election, the voters of Colorado and Washington state passed ballot measures making the use of marijuana legal for adults, as well as regulating the production and sale of marijuana in a manner similar to alcohol. However, marijuana-related activities remain illegal under federal law. Do you feel President Obama should allow Colorado and Washington to implement these laws, or do you think he should use federal resources to prevent these laws from taking effect?

Obama should allow them to implement the laws 47%

He should use federal resources to prevent the laws from taking effect 33%

Among Democrats

Obama should allow them to implement the laws 55%

He should use federal resources to prevent the laws from taking effect 26%

Among Republicans

Obama should allow them to implement the laws 35%

He should use federal resources to prevent the laws from taking effect 46%

Among Independents

Obama should allow them to implement the laws 47%

He should use federal resources to prevent the laws from taking effect 31%

Among Men

Obama should allow them to implement the laws 52%

He should use federal resources to prevent the laws from taking effect 30%

Among Women

Obama should allow them to implement the laws 42%

He should use federal resources to prevent the laws from taking effect 36%

Do you agree or disagree with the following statement? "Marijuana is safer than alcohol."

Agree 45%

Disagree 42%

Among Democrats

Agree 58%

Disagree 29%

Among Republicans

Agree 32%

Disagree 58%

Among Independents

Agree 38%

Disagree 45%

Among Men

Agree 52%

Disagree 39%

Among Women

Agree 38%

Disagree 46%

Do you think marijuana will be legal under federal law within the next 10 years, or not?