The Third Front’s Bat-Trick !

When I was a kid, I remember, I wasn’t particularly great at cricket (or so I think now). But at that time, I thought, I was pure genius. I knew the right technique (read it in a book), I understood English commentary (unlike some of my friends) and most important of all, I had a bat. Now, the first two traits may not be sufficient to make me the most valuable player in my team but the third one ensured, no game started without me.

I’m thinking, that’s what used to happen with Bardhan, Deve Gowda and Mayawati as well. But wait a minute, aren’t these people pro-socialism/communism (whatever those heavy terms mean). Thus it follows that these people would hate the game of cricket since it involves a lot of money and they instead love Kabaddi. So I’m wondering, where did they actually learn this trick – the Bat-trick! coz. that’s the only way to describe the formation of the Third Front.

Let’s take a look at the numbers of the 2004 general election results:

Out of a total of 545 possible seats in the Lok Sabha, any party who wishes to form a government should atleast attain a simple majority (51%) ie. around 278 seats. In the 2004 general elections, 543 seats were contested and the top three parties were as under:

1. Congress was the single largest party with 145 seats;2. BJP came in a close second with 138 seats; and3. The next largest party was CPI(M) with only 43 seats.

The difference between the second and third largest party is huge. But the CPI(M) and a few other parties together called the Left, flaunted the secular badge and the Congress along with its allies came to power under the banner UPA.

The left, now disillusioned with the UPA withdrew support and on 22nd July, again the UPA proved its vote of confidence with a good margin even without the Left. The savior was the Samajwadi Party with 36 seats.

The left, at times I feel, follow an ideology of disillusionment. They are always disillusioned with everything after a point of time, be it the rising sensex, growing industrialization, or their political alliances. They are like the typical husbands – love their girlfriends before marriage but after a few years, start cribbing about everything that’s wrong with their wives. (Typical wives would also be appropriate but I guess, a lot of women read my blog so… Ahem!)

So the Left, now divorced from the UPA found a prospective suitor when Deve Gowda floated the idea of the Third Front. Of course, they were the third largest party. So with much fan fare, the third front has been formed. But if we look at the numbers, the third front paints a sorry picture. Remember, the magic figure is 51% of 545 ie. around 278.

What would you say, if I told you that the leader of BSP with just 19 seats in the Lok Sabha dreams of becoming the next Prime Minister? I’d say she’s weak at maths.

Another sorry fact: In the 2004 general elections, BSP contested the highest number of seats – a total of 435 seats (even more than the Congress who contested for 400 seats) of which it won only 19 and its deposit was forfeited in 358 seats. It got only 5% of the total votes polled in the country.

Agreed, things have changed since 2004. In the 2007 state elections, Mayawati lead BSP came to power in Uttar Pradesh becoming the first single majority party since 1991 and the fact that Uttar Pradesh sends the highest number of MPs (80) to the Lok Sabha might have made Mayawati very buoyant.

But practically, the third front has no chance of forming the government without the support of the Congress or its major allies.

Even a grand performance by the parties of the left front in this general election, say a positive swing of almost 50%, would leave them with only around 150 seats. Far from the magic figure.

And remember, this is a front combined of almost 10 smaller parties. You never know, which party doesn’t get paid on time and you could have a vote of no confidence.

If the third front does manage to come to power with the support of the Congress, it will be a notable feat, similar to the one below:

And not to forget Sonia Gandhi’s mood swings. Deve Gowda remained in power for 11 months with support from the Congress before Sonia decided she was bored of him. Just imagine, what if the motorcycles in the picture above started racing with each other?

So if the parties of the third front do not support the Congress, I guess, we are in for a short term government coz. I don’t really see the NDA or the UPA getting to the magic figure alone. A short term government it will be then, after all how long can the fragile pyramid last. Be prepared for another General Election next year, unless of course, you the voter understand this bat-trick and vote for the party who can provide a stable government. The third front certainly cannot.

I may have believed that by virtue of my bat, I was valuable enough to stall the game, but I never was stupid enough to think, I could be the captain.

I may agree to almost what you have said.Indian democracy is now numbers.Ideology has taken a back seat.Following are the prospective decleared PMsRahul Gandhi (not sonia)MayawatiSharad PawarPaswanMulayam SinghDr Manmohan SinghWith so many contenders,what do you expect of candidates and the idiology?But it is a fact that any party which gets 90 seats plus can not be avoided.Isn’t Paswan holding the creamy portfoilio,Steel.? In fact he has only 5 seats.In fact ,smaller the party, more important the party becomes.Wait and watch TAMASHA after the elections results are out.

not only does the number game in politics suck, it is also so full of flaws but beyond repair given it is ‘democracy’. The word democracy has been minced so badly in practice that there’s hardly any of it left. And this whole third-front drama! uff!

And what frustrates me the most is that though i am both willing and capable of casting a vote, i am so damn unsure who is a better devil of the lot! making an uninformed choice is like wasting our fundamental right!

So many political alliances, so many power hungry politicians, so many corrupt men ..they r all more interested in settling personal scores and taking potshots at each other.. whres the time for development and growth

im sooo disgusted with our politicians tht I just don’t feel like voting in the forthcoming elections..

which party doesn’t get paid on time and you could have a vote of no confidence….I couldnt say it better.In India politics is such that it wouldnt be a wonder if mayawati becomes a prime minister..because here the the qualifications required are not good administration or clean image etc, but..manipulation of numbers and casteism. I belong to UP and so I know what mayawati and Mulayam has done to it, its going Bihar way.I feel very sad to see a flourishing state going to the dogs. We have evrything there…resources natural and otherwise, talent, but still we are going backward.I hope that electorate wakes up now and vote for clean and good people irrespective of the party.

@Chowla ji: Yes, I guess, small parties become important when the contest is close and I think this time, with the left out of the UPA, the final contest might get close. You’re right – Ideology is out of the window.

@Jinu P: Better devil? Tough choice – Though I like Modi for the work he’s doing for Gujarat, I’d go with Congress at the centre, mainly because of their younger brigade.

@Swats: It’s difficult but I’d go for the Congress inspite of all their evils.

LOL@the first two traits may not be sufficient to make me the most valuable player in my team but the third one ensured, no game started without me.brilliant way to connect the two..the political circus and your cricketing days…:)

I agree with Jinu that making an uninformed choice is like wasting our vote..infact knowing the choices that are there, its more like ‘dil par patthar rakh kar’ we will vote..:(

Sorry Rakesh, but I am replying to Vikaram ‘s questopn mark on flourishing….It was as i saw in my childhood when there was not so goonda raj, food was in plenty, had good harvest and industries were running(now they aare closed)

Indy: Yep, and we sure want to be choosing an Indian PM, not a Marathi or a UP PM.

@Solilo: Who scares you more? SP or Maya Memsaab?

@Nancy: Better known devil? No can’t guess, tell me…

@Vikram: Did read your post and you might be describing what is actually happening in UP but the question is, are her numbers enough? Can she be DEMOCRATICALLY elected as a PM? The answer is No. If she does become a PM, she’ll be riding on bat-trick only! How do you think the rest of India (Other than UP where BSP has a big following) will take that? To be a good and ‘successful’ Leader, you not only need to be a good person but you need to have public following. She doesn’t have that in the whole of India. Let her prove herself in UP for a full term at least.

And while we are at that, please do a post on her criminal records as well. No, I don’t believe whatever I hear or read in the news and that is why I wan’t to know what you think about her Birthday Gift extortion stories?

@Renu ji: Sure, this is what blogger is all about, lets discuss her candidature and all of us will be informed.

I always thought that however a person may be biased and corrupt, but once they come to power, they maintain a certain decorum and impartial perspective, but myawati and Mulayam have changed my perspective completely, Both bore no good for UP, I just wish and hope we get a better governance this time.

About Myawati one keeps reading about..how much she spent in furnishing her bungalow, how much she got on her Bday and day in day out , her statues are coming upo everywhere, many things are being reconstructed….poor lady doesnt have , neither the time nor mony for public.

And how reassuring! The news of the third front is a shocking one… the numbers you have given do make it seem unlikely that we will see Mayawati as PM… although I have read some blogs that have been predicting this for months now 😦

Loved not just the simple to understand information and logic, but also the bat-trick and the motorbikes examples 🙂 ROTFL!

I was dying to get back and read opinions on this in the blogosphere, so doubly thrilled with this post 🙂

@Renu ji: I know, I heard from someone else as well that her statues keep coming up everywhere, and some day, we’ll have riots if somebody insults her statue.

@Rakesh V: Ya, You’re right. This time, we can expect fractured results and the result will be again elections in 2010.

@IHM: Ya, I guess, the premise is far fetched looking at these numbers! But u never know, what games political parties play. Just to scare you a little, what if Congress agrees to give support to Mayawati?

What is find the scariest is that, a 51% majority gives you the right to run a country. Logically, that means 49% of the junta(approx 54 crs) have not chosen the person/party in power to rule them. The 54 crs is an assumption that everyone in the country votes and the population is 110 crs.

Interesting reading of everyone’s comments n prespectives.Rakesh’s co-relating the game with polictics is great n the essence is not lost.When we look at the present scenario,honestly it frightens you with the Parties n their contenders.Infightining is the name of the game and as the dts draw closer it will only get murkier.A wise old man once said,its better to deal with a known devil than an unknown one,and for that matter,honestly Congress is the lesser known devil of the lot.Some of the top notch of the party are just about enough to run the country well n keep others in line.For one being away from home,I would really like to be there to vote so as to ensure the likes of Mayawati do not come any closer to Delhi than she is currently.Happy Feuding BJP,BJD,BSP,SJW….God,its impossible to remember the alphabetic creations of all.

An interesting take on the third front. Though I agree that in the foreseeable future, the third front cannot really come to power on its own, I disagree with the fact that that should be used as a reason not to vote for any of those parties. It is perfectly fine if a person doesn’t believe in their policies, doesn’t like the leader/MP being fielded by the party etc etc. But voting for the BJP or the Congress just cos you know that the third front can never come to power is killing democracy in a way. What you are suggesting might be practical, but not ideal. (I do support the bi-party system of government though)And seperately, can’t we (as in people residing out of India) vote by post? A friend told me we could. Not sure though.

@Doc: I’m starting to believe that the Congress is the lesser devil, or so it seems right now.

@Mayawati: I guess, she would be satisfied with supporting the congress and getting a plum portfolio in return – say Home Ministry / Education Minsitry or something of the sort. Maybe even Railways since Lalu isn’t interested anymore.

@Rebel: I still disagree – Coz. the left front can never form a stable government, not at least in the current scenario. Stability is also a very important factor that we should be considering here.

Fabulous work Rakesh…just brilliant how you brought the metaphor of the bat to correlate with the Indian political scenario. I think most of the third front parties are nothing but a bunch of morons.I get a feeling that it is once again going to be Congress with about similar seats like the last time. The BJP is disintegrating and I don’t think any other party can challenge the Congress.In one of your comments I saw that you said you will go for the Congress because of its young brigade. I find this a little weird if you say that you will vote for the Congress just becuase of the youth.

@IJD: Not ONLY because of Youth. Since this was a comment, I didn’t elaborate, but I think they have a lot more educated and sane individuals, who btw also seem young and energetic to their BJP counterparts.

Finally read this post and well I do agree that the third front cannot provide a stable government. I began to imagine Deve Gowda sleeping yet again (Some damn news channel also had a story about some soothsayer predicting that Deve Gowda will be next PM…what crap!!)

As a youth and a young citizen of this country, voting for the first time… I asked myself whom do I want to vote for? Congress has been in power in my state and AP has gone to the dogs since YSR came to power. And I experimented crashing a Prajarajyam rally and I tell you, the candidate (with some funny name i cant even spell) just went on lashing out at his opponent….and there was nothing for the masses.. no policies, like they intend on fulfilling any!!

As far as the PM candidature is concerned, I think I’d be happy with Mr Singh, just because I dont want Advani to lead this country. No party is going to get that magic figure in any which case so I’d be happy with congress and its allies forming the goverment again, and it sure likes like it will.

BJP is wilting… its infighting is out in the open and none of its leaders have any sort of charisma left. I admired a 23-year old Varun Gandhi in the 2004 elections, campaigning for BJP (too young to contest for LS) and I hoped he would become a decent MP some day… Like Sachin Pilot, Jyotiraditya… but seeing his provocative speech and the way BJP defends him, is just annoying to the core.

I think I am going to vote for congress in the end, coz face it, it seems like the only decent devil out there. Another General election next year is a huge waste of public money and they can have any number of elections that they want, in the end people like us have to ensure the government does what it is supposed to do.