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Analysts say a political outsider could have a shot at Senate seat if Kerry leaves for Cabinet post

By Chris Camire, ccamire@lowellsun.com

Updated:
11/26/2012 11:58:04 AM EST

Several familiar names are being mentioned as leading candidates to run for U.S. Senate should John Kerry join President Barack Obama's administration.

But recent history tells us Massachusetts voters are inclined to turn to political newcomers.

Gov. Deval Patrick was a little-known former civil-rights attorney and corporate lawyer when he launched a bid for governor in 2005. Scott Brown was an obscure Republican state lawmaker from Wrentham when he ran for U.S. Senate in 2010. And, despite a distinguished career, Elizabeth Warren was hardly a household name when she began her U.S. Senate campaign a year ago.

Will an unknown emerge again in the event of Kerry's departure?

"The climate looks inviting for people who are outside the political establishment," said Maurice Cunningham, a political-science professor at UMass Boston. "Scott Brown, Deval Patrick and Elizabeth Warren seemingly came from nowhere. They're all very qualified, highly talented people, and nobody saw them a short time before they rocked the state."

In a recent post on MassPoliticsProfs, a blog run by several Massachusetts political scientists, Cunningham pointed out that over the past decade, candidates who were seen as shoo-ins leading up to statewide elections often proved to be paper tigers.

In a March 2009 Suffolk University/7News poll, for example, voters were asked, "If Ted Kennedy were to vacate his U.S. Senate seat, who would you like to see run for the U.S. Senate seat?" Seventeen politicians were named, none of whom was Brown.

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Just 10 months later, Brown would score a stunning victory over Attorney General Martha Coakley.

"Our insider, expert, knowledgeable predictions about politics are a lot more inaccurate than we let on," Cunningham said.

If there was any certainty in Massachusetts politics, writes Cunningham, former Attorney General Tom Reilly would be serving his second term as governor and Coakley would have just cruised to re-election in the U.S. Senate.

Even Brown's defeat earlier this month at the hands of Warren was seen as unlikely a year ago, when many of the state's top Democrats opted against challenging him because of his high approval ratings and formidable fundraising numbers.

With the re-election of Obama earlier this month, many are wondering if the president will select Kerry, the state's senior senator, to replace Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, who is eyeing the presidency in 2016. Recent reports suggest Obama favors Susan Rice, ambassador to the United Nations, but would consider Kerry for secretary of Defense.

If Kerry accepted a Cabinet post, he would have to resign from the Senate. Patrick would then name a temporary replacement until a special election is held to replace Kerry.

Potential Democratic candidates whose names have been mentioned most often to replace Kerry include 5th District Rep. Ed Markey; 7th District Rep. Mike Capuano; and 8th District Rep. Stephen Lynch. All three cruised to re-election this month.

Former U.S. Rep. and current UMass Lowell Chancellor Marty Meehan is also considered a leading contender. Although Meehan has maintained that he is very happy at UMass Lowell, his $5 million campaign war chest could make him a formidable candidate, particularly in an abbreviated election cycle.

If Kerry leaves, a special election must be held within 160 days of the vacancy being declared. Traditionally, a shortened time span would give an established name a leg up, said Cunningham.

"Deval Patrick worked for two years," he said, referring to the amount of time he campaigned for governor. "He's done a masterful job translating shoe leather into votes, but it took a long time. It should be an advantage for people who have been in it before."

Of course, in the 2010 special election to replace Kennedy, hardly anyone predicted Brown would ride a wave of voter anger to upset Coakley in liberal Massachusetts.

"Randomness plays a pretty big role in outcomes, and that makes things a lot more unpredictable than we'd like to think," Cunningham said.

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