Stakes 5-Pack Brings Keeneland in With a Bang

by Brian Nadeau

April 5, 2018

While Keeneland opens their spring meet Friday, the real treat comes Saturday, when a stakes-laden card is headlined by the GII Blue Grass, which will once again serve as a key prep for the Kentucky Derby. A big 300k guaranteed all-stakes Pk5 looms, and while it’s a bit early to put actual numbers down on paper, let’s take a brief look at the main contenders, and who could possibly surprise.

R6: The $250,000 GIII Commonwealth for 4up at 7 furlongs

I’m highly skeptical that heavy 6/5 ML favorite #6 Limousine Liberal will be that short by post, but regardless, he seems like the type to play against, as he’s just 1-for-5 locally, isn’t all that fast on paper, and hasn’t run since November. He’s probably worth inclusion, but horses like #2 Behavioral Bias and #5 Conquest Windycity offer plenty more value, have a recency edge and will be much better prices too. The pace looks a bit tricky, but it seems honest, which is why I will be leaning against #3 Westwood, who likely will have to run hard every step of the way and wasn’t all that impressive winning last time at Aqueduct.

R7: $200,000 GII Shakertown for 3up at 5 ½ furlongs (turf)

I have the utmost respect for #13 Disco Partner, and he’s hands-down the horse to beat, but this post is a concern, as is his lack of speed going a sharp 5 ½ furlongs, not to mentions he enters off a Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint layoff in November, so you’re allowed to look around for better value. The 20-1 ML is laughable (expect 6/1 or so), but #12 Bound for Nature traded punches with some of the best turf sprinters in the world last summer in Europe and held his own, and he got the perfect comeback last time at Turfway Park, so he’s very intriguing at a nice price. You’d think #5 Bucchero needed is comeback at Gulfstream Park and will improve, while #2 Commute has big figures and runs as a first-time gelding off the July layoff. Lastly, #9 Big Handsome is interesting too, and even though he hasn’t started since October and has the class question to answer, it’s not like Tony D. to run them where they can’t win, and his works sure do whisper ready. Point being, there are others way to go than taking the 9/5 or so on Disco Partner. Before moving on, it is worth noting that turf sprinters don’t get to run for big money like this too often, so the layoff runners could be a bit more cranked than you would suspect for their first start of the year.

R8: $300,000 GI Madison for 4upfm at 7 furlongs

If you want to be bold, I think you can single #11 American Gal, even though she hasn’t started since her GI Test tour de force at Saratoga and now meets older gals for the first time. Simply put, she’s a brilliant horse in a race littered with GII types, who have already shown what they can—and can’t—do. Yes, I have a lot of respect for #2 Lewis Bay, who could trip out, #3 Salty, who is finally being allowed to race at the one-turn she’s been begging for all along, #10 Ami’s Mesa, who ran too good to lose in her dirt debut when last seen in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint, and #12 Finley’sluckycharm, who is a win machine and a local GII heroine too, but none of them have the firepower American Gal brings to the table. That 4/1 ML would be the overlay of the year, but if you single her in the Pk5 (and 400k guaranteed Pk4 too), you don’t need to worry about that, and you have to think Simon Callaghan has her ready to fire off the break, since this is a very important GI.

R9: $500,000 GI Ashland for 3yof at 1 1/16 miles

In what is a two-horse race on paper, I don’t think using both #1 Monomoy Girl and #2 Eskimo Kisses equally does you any good (You have to have an opinion, right?), which is why I’ll be singling the former and using the latter on backup tickets. Monomoy Girl simply decimated the field in the GII Rachel Alexandra at Fair Grounds and has a huge tactical edge on her main rival, as she can be placed anywhere, while Eskimo Kisses doesn’t have a lot of early speed, which is why she came up a head short in the GII Fair Grounds Oaks (which was just 14 days ago too).

R10: $1 million GI Blue Grass for 3yo at 1 1/8 miles

Good luck here, as this looks like a real crapshoot, especially if you don’t trust #11 Good Magic, who looked awesome in winning the BC Juvenile then pretty dreadful running a bad 3rd in the GII Xpressbet Fountain of Youth in his comeback at GP. He’s still the most likely winner in what is a very weak field, but at 2/1 or so, who wants him? He’s an “A” for me, but hardly a stand-alone type. I’m stubborn as hell, so I’ll give #2 Sporting Chance another chance, as he’ll offer value and should trip out nicely in a race that doesn’t appear to have a ton of speed. Obviously, you have to use #5 Quip, and #12 Flameaway, who were separated by a length in the GII Tampa Bay Derby and can move forward, with the latter really appealing after running only in spots last time. If I had to lay someone, it would be #10 Free Drop Billy, who won about the worst GI ever when he took the local GI Breeders’ Futurity last year and simply seems second tier to me (though you could argue that’s good enough to win this).

This has the look of a sequence where you can rely on a few favorites like American Gal and Monomoy Girl, while splashing some big prices in too, which is all we can ask for as a bettor when playing a Pk5. Hey, it’s Keeneland, did you expect anything else?

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4.7.2018

E Five Racing Thoroughbreds and Stonestreet Stables’ champion Good Magic roared past Flameaway in the upper stretch and went on to score a 1½-length victory in the 94th running of the $1 million Toyota Blue Grass (G2) for 3-year-olds before a crowd of 14,269 on a brisk Saturday afternoon.
For the day, Keeneland set wagering records for all-sources handle, Pick 4 and Pick 5 pools. Total all-sources handle was $22,634,861, eclipsing the previous record of $21,736,983 set on April 9, 2016. The All-Stakes Pick Four ending in the Toyota Blue Grass did $1,065,002 versus the previous record of $733,800 set on April 8, 2017. The All-Stakes Pick Five handled $899,196, smashing the previous record of $653,827 on April 20, 2013.
On Sunday, Keeneland will offer a Pick 6 carryover of $30,688.
In the Toyota Blue Grass, Good Magic, trained by Chad Brown and ridden by Jose Ortiz, covered the 1 1/8 miles on the fast main track in 1:50.18. It was the first victory in the race for Brown and Ortiz.
The victory also gave Good Magic 100 points toward the $2 million Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1) to be run May 5 at Churchill Downs. Good Magic has 134 points toward the Derby, a total that will safely get him in the Derby starting gate that is limited to 20 starters.
The victory was worth $600,000 and increased Good Magic’s earnings to $1,855,000 with a record of 5-2-2-1. His other victory came in last fall’s Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) that earned him the Eclipse Award as champion 2-year-old of 2017.
Purchased for $1 million at the 2016 Keeneland September Yearling Sale, Good Magic is a Kentucky-bred son of Curlin out of the Hard Spun mare Glinda the Good.
Longshot Arawak led the field of 14 through early fractions of :23.55 and :47.40, with Flameaway in closest pursuit. Meanwhile, Ortiz had Good Magic racing in the clear in fifth place.
As the field reached the far turn, Flameaway took over with Good Magic moving to his immediate outside and Sporting Chance ranging up in third.
Good Magic took charge early in the stretch and erased any doubt of the outcome. However, in deep stretch, Sporting Chance veered to the outside under Luis Saez and forced Free Drop Billy and Irad Ortiz Jr. to alter course.
Sporting Chance finished three-quarters of a length in front of Free Drop Billy but was disqualified from third to fourth because of interference. The elevation of Free Drop Billy gave him 20 Derby points and 44 overall. Sporting Chance received 10 points to raise his total to 12.
Good Magic returned $5.20, $3.60 and $2.80. Flameaway, who has 70 points toward the Derby, returned $5 and $3.80 under Jose Lezcano with Free Drop Billy returning $3.60 to show.
Following Sporting Chance in order were Blended Citizen, Kanthaka, Tiz Mischief, Marconi, Zing Zang, California Night, Gotta Go, Machismo, Determinant and Arawak.
Racing continues Sunday with a nine-race program that begins at 1:05 p.m. ET. Headlining the card are two stakes for 3-year-old fillies, the $200,000 Appalachian (G2) Presented by Japan Racing Association at a mile on the turf and the $150,000 Beaumont (G3) Presented by Keeneland Select contested over the Beard Course of 7 furlongs, 184 feet on the main track.
Quotes from the $1 Million Toyota Blue Grass (G2)
Chad Brown (winning trainer of 8-5 favorite Good Magic)
On the difference between Good Magic’s Toyota Blue Grass victory and his third-place finish in the Fountain of Youth (G2) on March 3 in his last start
“In hindsight, (heading into the Fountain of Youth) he was probably a couple of works short. If you want to stay on the (Kentucky) Derby (G1) trail, you have to run when it’s time to get started. This horse came out of that race real well – bigger, stronger and has had some impressive workouts since. We were pretty confident coming into this race. I love the way he did it today.
“We’ll get him over to Churchill (Downs) and give him at least one work over the track and hopefully get him out to a mile and a quarter and hopefully he can handle it.”
On whether today’s performance resembled Good Magic’s win in the 2017 Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1)
“It did remind me of it. Jose (Ortiz) rides this horse so well, and once again he put him in a position to win the race. I loved where he was all throughout the race – became a matter of is he good enough and fit enough today?
“I thought it was an outstanding performance. He was well-placed early and kept steady throughout. Maybe we dock one point where it looked like he jumped a shadow near the wire, but that’s him. He’s going to look around a little bit. I was really happy how he ran today. For only two starts this year, I was hoping to be peaking for the Derby and hopefully we’ll advance another step on Derby Day. Looks like is a very good crop of horses this year and it’s going to be a tough race.
“This is our first Blue Grass – we ran second the last two years. Once you get a little taste of that – Keeneland in the spring – you start looking to bring one back next year to win this race. It’s important – I’m so happy to win this race.”
On seeing snow on the ground this morning
“I was worried. The timing for the Derby – I really don’t’ want to run (Good Magic in a Derby prep) beyond today. As happens in Kentucky, (the weather) can change by the hour. Thankfully it turned out to be a wonderful day.
“He seems to love Keeneland. I’m going to think about (his schedule leading to the Derby), talk to my staff about it, talk to my team. Right now, I’m leaning toward leaving him here a couple of weeks, maybe getting his first breeze out of the way here, on a track I know he likes. Then get him over to Churchill – he’ll have at least one work at Churchill.”
Jose Ortiz (winning rider)
“It was perfect, we had a good trip. We broke really well and everything went really well. The way I planned was to sit back a little bit off the front and everything turned out perfect. I was pretty confident on him because I know he’s a good horse out of the gate. I knew he was going to help me a lot and I was going to have a clear road to the first turn.”
On the meaning of winning the Toyota Blue Grass for Chad Brown
“It means a lot. I really love Keeneland, I’m going to stay here for the whole meet. I really want to win a title here.”
Jose Lezcano (rider of runner-up Flameaway)
“I got pressured the whole way around; (Flameaway) never got a breather. And you see, he's very tough. He keeps running and he kept trying. I was happy to see him do well.”
Mark Casse (trainer of Flameaway)
“He never gave up. He’s just so classy, you’ve got to love him. I got what I asked for. I said I wanted a fight at the top of the lane, and we got one. Unfortunately, we were second-best today. I think Chad (Brown) did a tremendous job. It’s one thing to train a horse to be a champion, and another to train them after they’re champions. We’ve beaten the winner of the Wood (Memorial-G2, Vino Rosso) twice already. I think we can hold our head high. (Flameaway will) be heading home (to Churchill Downs) probably tomorrow.”
Irad Ortiz Jr. (rider of Free Drop Bill, who finished fourth and was elevated to third following the disqualification of Sporting Chance)
“He ran a good race. When I ask him, he goes. I finished fourth, but he ran a good race. He did everything I wanted him to do. I'm pretty happy with him. He'll be all right in the Derby.”
Luis Saez (rider of Sporting Chance, who finished third and was disqualified to fourth)
“I thought he was going to win. He was perfect (until) we came to the wire. When I hit him he (veered) out. He did it twice today. I don't know why he does that. He was perfect today up until then.”
D. Wayne Lukas (trainer of Sporting Chance)
“He has shied twice with Luis with the left-handed stick and I guess he doesn’t like it. He has never given any indication in the morning (training sessions). He is probably the easiest horse in the barn to train.
“We needed those 40 points (for second place) to get to the Derby and now we only have 12.”
Julien Leparoux (rider of sixth-place finisher Kanthaka)
“We had a good trip. He traveled very nice for me. The winner came from the outside of me, and went by pretty early. I just could not keep up with him.”
Corey Lanerie (rider of seventh-place finisher Tiz Mischief)
“I had a good trip. My horse didn’t show any speed. I was lucky enough to find a path on the rail, but when he got through, he just couldn’t get it done today.”

5.2.2018

With a huge Kentucky Derby Weekend on-tap at Churchill Downs, let’s deviate away from Belmont Park and head to Louisville for a look at the big middle Pk5 (R7-11), which ends with the Kentucky Oaks. Whereas in the past I’ve put together one caveman ticket on a small-scale budget, going forward I’m going to try and present a bit more of an in-depth play that will utilize backup horses and tickets, while painting a broader picture of a suggested play. *** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 36 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 12pm Friday for an update. *** Race 7: 3up GIII TwinSpires Turf Sprint at 5 furlongs With rain in the forecast, the turf course could be a bit soggy for this, which should further affect the bevy of speedsters entered, so I’m siding against anyone who wants to be on or near the front end. Enter #8 FRISKY MAGICIAN (15-1), who has a stalking/closing style, really improved off the Abreu claim last time, and will be a nice price to boot. The horse to beat is #7 VISION PERFECT (3-1), who has a hint of a rating gear too and has never been better, as his win in GP’s Silks Run last time was heady stuff. The consistent #9 BUCCHERO (7-2) is rounding into form and should be primed in his third start off a Breeders’ Cup layoff and is another who fits the race profile, as does #1 DELECTATION (6-1), who is facing the boys off an October layoff and probably wants longer, but who wants to toss out a Wesley Ward sprinter in Kentucky right now? Pk5 A horses (listed in order of preference): 8,7,9,1 Tossing all the speed runs the risk of being out after Leg 1 if someone catches a flier at the start, gets brave and forgets to stop, but I think it’s the right play, so even on my B backups I’m still not using any pure pace players. A pair of stalkers from New Orleans figure underneath, as #10 WILL CALL (6-1) looked good at FG but didn’t fire over soft ground in the GII Shakertown at Keeneland last time (so take note of the turf condition here) and #2 FLASHAWAY (5-1) wasn’t far behind in Nola, and if he doesn’t bounce off his last, could surprise. Pk5 B horses (listed in order of preference): 10,2 Race 8: 4up GII Alysheba at 1 1/16 miles Budget players will be singling Kentucky Derby hero Always Dreaming (see below), who could be a Lone F, but as a guy who is on record saying he will not win another race, I can’t call him an A. The two I’ll use are #4 BACKYARD HEAVEN (9-2), who should be pressing the issue from the outside and could open up a huge lead if ‘Dreaming doesn’t fire, and #1 GOOD SAMARITAN (5-2), who may need a pace meltdown, but is primed for a big campaign this year off a huge return win in the GII New Orleans at FG. The former is unproven, has never run in a stakes or at two turns, but comes in off a huge figure win for Chad Brown, while the latter wants longer to show his best, but might simply be too good for these regardless. Pk5 A horses: 1,4 The aforementioned #3 ALWAYS DREAMING (3-1) is one of the more fortunate Derby winners in the last half-century, as he rode a huge inside bias to victory, and hasn’t won since, and while his comeback in the GII GP Handicap was solid, he’s still a huge play against as an A, positive race flow and all. If you’re going to the C-line, then #5 Hoppertunity (3-1) should be used, but he may be second-tier at this point against this type, while #8 Awesome Slew (5-1) has always been a better one-turn horse and could/should opt to run over that trip Saturday on the Derby undercard. Pk5 B horses: 3 Race 9: 3f 75k/N1X at 7 furlongs. I’m not getting cute here, as #2 ELECTRIC FOREST (3-1) really tipped her hand with a sharp debut win for Chad Brown, is bred to be a really nice sprinter, and just seems better than an average bunch. You won’t get rich betting her to win, at a lot lower than this weak ML (think 7/5 by post), but by singling her in the horizontal exotics, you’ll guarantee more value. Pk5 A horses: 2 There’s not a ton of speed here, which means #3 C P QUALITY (10-1) should be close throughout, and her debut win at OP, which I saw in person, was a lot better and more polished than it looked. She has a ton of upside, and it’s worth noting that Von Hemel was about 3% with firsters going into her debut, which further speaks of her quality. You could use others, as #1 Saint’s Girl (10-1) will like getting back to one-turn, #4 Upset Brewing (9-2) has some class to her, #5 Maho Bay (10-1) may need to be caught, #6 Devine Mischief (7-2) could get first run off ‘Bay, #7 Beautiful Street (8-1) should only improve second-off the long layoff, and #10 Sworn Silence (8-1) goes for a potent Cox barn, but I think Electric Forest could be special, so that’s not the type I want to spread deep trying to beat. Pk5 B horses: 3 Race 10: 3f GIII Edgewood at 1 1/16 miles on the turf There is little doubt the undefeated #11 RUSHING FALL (4-5) is the most likely winner and will be odds-on, but there are a few potential chinks in her armor, so at extremely short odds, I’m not going to single her. I’m actually trying to beat her with #7 TOINETTE (12-1), who has had a lot thrown at her in three lifetimes starts but has handled it all and notably really improved trying two turns last time. Yes, she needs to step up to beat the heavy chalk, but it’s a big sign of confidence that Drysdale ships here, and the fact she’ll be several lengths ahead of ‘Fall entering the far turn, at maybe 10 times the price, is a big bonus too. I mentioned a few possible chinks in Rushing Fall’s armor, and while they may be nit-picking, you’re allowed to do that when talking about a likely $3.40 winner. First, as awesome as she’s been in winning all four starts, Rushing Fall really isn’t that much faster than any of these gals on figures, which really negates her margin for error in a big field. Second, this post is a worry, so much so that Chad Brown entered her Saturday against the boys (where she drew wide again), and while she’s rallied wide and won easily before, again, her margin for error is slim. So, point being, yes, she’s likely going to win, I just don’t think she’s got the winning chance the toteboard will tell you. Pk5 A horses: 7,11 For what it’s worth, I voted for Rushing Fall as the champion 2yof, and her comeback was as good as any of her wins last year, so I don’t want to go too deep trying to beat her. However, #4 FIGARELLA’S DREAM (12-1) is very interesting, as she might be a Lone F and could really improve off her win in GP’s Sanibel Island last time, as she was a private purchase after that race and now goes into a potent Cox barn. If you want to go even deeper, #1 Got Stormy (20-1) just missed to ’Dream last time, while Rushing Fall’s stablemate #3 Altea (6-1) should improve off her US debut after just missing in the GIII Florida Oaks at Tampa. Pk5 B horses: 4 Race 11: 3f GI Kentucky Oaks at 1 1/8 miles The big one has two decisive favorites in #10 MIDNIGHT BISOU (5-2) and #14 MONOMOY GIRL (2-1) and a bunch of others trying to get to their level. I’ll use both as A’s, but neither is a lock and I want more coverage on that line. My top choice is actually #4 CHOCOLATE MARTINI (12-1), who just keeps getting better off the Amoss claim, gets a huge jock switch to Castellano, will be a nice price, and should sit the right kind of stalking trip too, in a race with a lot of speed. She needs to improve off her GII FG Oaks win, but I see no reason why she can’t, at a trip she figures to like a lot more than the others. The two favorites are rock solid, with ‘Bisou getting the nod over ‘Girl, since the former has a running style better suited for the race flow, while the latter is drawn poorly and could run the risk of getting caught up in a pace that looks very honest, and maybe even fast. Pk5 A horses: 4,10,14 The obvious wildcard is #7 RAYYA (12-1), who will be nowhere near this price, since she now runs for the first time for Baffert and was just 2nd (albeit a football field behind) against Derby hotshot Mendelssohn in the GI UAE Derby at Meydan. Truth be told, I have no idea what to make of her, but she does add Lasix and has run farther (twice) than today’s distance, and both of those are big positives. That’s it for me, though #2 Coach Rocks (12-1), #3 Classy Act (15-1), #5 Wonder Gadot (20-1), #11 My Miss Lilly (10-1) and #13 Eskimo Kisses (15-1) will all get some support and would hardly be impossible if they pick today to run a lifetime best. Pk5 B horses: 7 The main A ticket is 4x2x1x2x3 for $24, and that’s our starting point. But by adding in our B horses in with the A’s in the other legs, we can get more coverage and allow for some margin for error too. As you’ll see below, the backups tickets are a more cost conducive way of getting added coverage, without breaking the bank; if we combined all the A’s and B’s, the ticket would cost $216, (6x3x2x3x4), whereas this way is a more manageable $92. I’m also an advocate of playing you’re A ticket for $1 (or more), so you capitalize if you handicap it out of the park. Main Ticket: 8,7,9,1 with 4,1 with 2 with 7,11 with 4,10,14 = $24 R7 B Backup: 10,2 with 4,1 with 2 with 7,11 with 4,10,14 = $12 R8 B Backup: 8,7,9,1 with 3 with 2 with 7,11 with 4,10,14 = $12 R9 B Backup: 8,7,9,1 with 4,1 with 3 with 7,11 with 4,10,14 = $24 R10 B Backup: 8,7,9,1 with 4,1 with 2 with 4 with 4,10,14 = $12 R11 B Backup: 8,7,9,1 with 4,1 with 2 with 7,11 with 7 = $8