Iraq War Logs: What the numbers reveal

The majority of these new deaths come from small
incidents of one to three deaths.

Additionally, IBC calculates that over 150,000
violent deaths have been recorded since March 2003,
with more than 122,000 (80%) of them civilian.

The Iraq War Logs released by WikiLeaks on 22 October
2010, contain 54,910 records compiled by the United
States military whose numerical fields register
109,032 violent deaths between January 2004 and
December 2009. These casualty records contain four
categories of casualties, ‘Civilian’ (66,081 deaths),
‘Host Nation’ (15,196 deaths),‘Enemy’ (23,984
deaths), and ‘Friendly’ (3,771 deaths).

But how much of this is new knowledge? How many of
the 109,032 deaths documented in the logs are
previously unpublished? What, in other words, do
these records add to the already known death toll? A
precise and final answer to this question can only be
gained after a detailed reading of each individual
log to discover whether or not what it contains has
already been documented and reported elsewhere.

Such analysis will take many months yet to complete.
Nonetheless, IBC has been able to provide a
preliminary assessment of how many deaths the new
data adds by analysing a carefully chosen sample of
these logs. On the basis of these analyses IBC is
able to conclude that some 15,000 hitherto unrecorded
civilian deaths will be added to the public record
from the Iraq War Logs, and that these, together with
new information on combatant deaths contained in the
logs, will bring the recorded death toll since March
2003 to over 150,000, roughly 80% of whom were
civilians.

Full details of the IBC analyses are given below and
in the technical appendix.1

Our analysis in detail

We constructed the sample for our preliminary
analysis from all death categories in the Iraq War
Logs except for 'Friendly' (defined as US and other
allied, non-Iraqi military forces). Such military
deaths are never included in the IBC database and
are, in any case, very well documented in other
sources.2 The remaining three
categories will overlap with the IBC database to one
degree or another. For each of these categories we
assessed how and where the two data-sets overlap and,
as a result, what the new logs would add to the IBC
database.

In the three categories (‘Civilian’, ‘Host Nation’,
‘Enemy’), we assessed every log that records 20 or
more deaths. We chose to look at each of these logs
in detail, since the presence of previously unknown
incidents of such a large size would be particularly
important to know, and because their total number
(360 logs) was small enough to be manageable within
the limited time available. For logs containing death
totals below 20 (52,024 logs), random samples were
drawn from each of the three categories above.

First, we have compared these logs with similarly
detailed information on civilian deaths in the IBC
database to provide a projected total of previously
unknown civilian deaths that will be added. Then we
have evaluated the extent to which the US military
classification of deaths as 'Enemy' are inconsistent
with IBC-recorded data on these same events. Next, we
have performed a like with like comparison of the
same types of deaths in both datasets to assess the
number of IBC-recorded deaths that are missing from
the logs. And finally, we have derived an overall
figure for total violent deaths in Iraq (both
civilian and combatant) by integrating the estimated
log numbers with IBC and other relevant totals
already in the public domain.

We stress that the following assessments are
preliminary and are in no way our final conclusions
about what these logs contribute to existing
knowledge. A full and final accounting will require
many months of dedicated work evaluating all of the
logs in detail, one by one.

Deaths in the 'Civilian' category

More than 12,000 previously unknown deaths are
contained in the ‘Civilian’ category of the
logs.

The vast majority of previously unreported deaths
arise from small incidents of 1-3 deaths.

Civilians are defined in the Iraq War Logs as Iraqi
and other civilians, including foreign contractors.
The logs record 66,081 deaths in this category. Since
IBC is itself a civilian deaths database, this is the
most clearly relevant category for IBC. One exception
is that the logs include foreign security contractors
in this category, while IBC does not include them in
its count. However, the vast majority of 'Civilians'
in the logs are Iraqis, so matching this category
against IBC is fairly straightforward.

War logs Category

Total deaths

Number of deaths sampled

Percent matched

Estimated new deaths

Civilian

66,081

11,177

81.2%

12,438 (95% CI: 10,999-13,877)

The 'Civilian' category contains 239 logs recording
20 or more deaths. We assessed each of these logs
individually. From the remaining logs recording
between 1 and 19 deaths, a sample of 300 logs was
drawn. We matched this sample to the IBC database to
determine which deaths were not already recorded in
IBC and would, therefore, provide new deaths to add
to the database.

We estimate that when all of the work is complete,
81.2% of the deaths in the logs will match those that
were in the IBC database prior to the release of the
logs. This means that a significant majority of
deaths recorded in the logs had already been put into
the public domain, mainly via press and media reports
contemporary with the events being recorded. On the
other hand, 18.8% of deaths in the sample were not
previously known.

The matching rates varied considerably according to
the size of the incident. Deaths in logs recording 10
or more civilians killed had a matching rate of over
95%, while deaths in logs where only one or two
people were killed had lower matching rates of around
73%. This means that most of the new deaths revealed
by the Iraq War Logs are not from big bombings and
explosions, but from those multiple small tragedies
(targeted assassinations, executions, drive-by
shootings, checkpoint killings) that the Iraqi people
have endured on a daily basis throughout the entire
period.

Taken together, our sample of 300 logs across the
Civilian category, along with the 239 logs reviewed
containing 20 or more deaths each, allow us to
estimate that 12,438 (10,999-13,877) previously
unrecorded deaths will be added to the IBC database
from the ‘Civilian’ category of the logs.

Deaths in the 'Host Nation' category

2,700 previously unreported deaths are of Iraqi
Police and other Iraqi security forces killed after
capture.

More than 15,000 previously unknown civilian
deaths are revealed once the ‘Civilian’ and ‘Host
Nation’ categories are combined.

This analysis confirms that police have been the
most targeted profession.

‘Host Nation’ is defined in the Iraq War Logs as
Iraqi security forces, including all official Iraqi
government forces from local police to National Guard
and Iraqi Army. The logs record 15,196 deaths in this
category. Some of these types of deaths are included
in the IBC civilian deaths database, and others are
excluded. IBC includes deaths of local police, but
only includes other Iraqi security force members,
such as Iraqi Army, National Guard or National
Police, when they have been executed after capture.3
This
means there is only partial overlap between the
inclusion criteria of IBC and the ‘Host Nation’
category of the logs.

Below is our estimate of how many new 'Host Nation'
deaths are recorded in the logs that are compatible
with the criteria used by IBC.

War logs category

Total deaths

Number of deaths sampled

Percent matched or not compatible

Estimated new deaths

Host Nation

15,196

889

82.2%

2,706 (95% CI: 1,965-3,446)

The ‘Host Nation’ category contains 14 logs that
record 20 or more deaths. Each of these 14 logs were
assessed individually, and a sample of 100 logs was
drawn from the remaining logs that recorded between 1
and 19 deaths. These 114 logs allowed us to estimate
that 2,706 (1,965-3,446) IBC-compatible deaths (e.g.,
Iraqi Police) will be added to the IBC database from
the ‘Host Nation’ category.

As in the ‘Civilian’ category, IBC’s coverage of
‘Host Nation’ deaths varied considerably depending on
incident size: in incidents where 4 or more Iraqis
were killed in this category, 96% were either already
in IBC's civilian database or incompatible with it.
For logs recording 1-3 deaths, this dropped to around
75%. So it is again deaths in the smallest incidents
which tend to have been previously unreported.

Combining the ‘Civilian’ and ‘Host Nation’ results
allows us to estimate that 15,144 (13,525-16,762) new
deaths will be added to the IBC database from the
Iraq War Logs. This suggests that the current IBC
total of over 107,000 civilian deaths will increase
to over 122,000 as a result of the release of these
documents by WikiLeaks.

Deaths in the 'Enemy' category

The US military's classification of over 3,000
deaths as ‘Enemy’ in the logs is disputed by previous
reports collected by IBC

Over 20,000 deaths of insurgents or
anti-Coalition forces are recorded in the logs

‘Enemy’ are defined in the Iraq War Logs as
Anti-occupation forces, 'insurgents' or militia who
opposed the US and Coalition Forces. The logs record
23,984 deaths defined as ‘Enemy’. 107 logs recorded
20 or more deaths in the ‘Enemy’ category and each of
these was assessed individually. A sample of 100 logs
was drawn from the remaining logs recording between 1
and 19 deaths.

The IBC database does not include 'Enemy' fighters
(i.e., 'insurgents', ‘anti-occupation forces’), so
the 'Enemy' category is, in theory, entirely
non-overlapping with IBC. However, there is often
disagreement over such classifications across
different sources. Many will question whether every
designation of a death as 'Enemy' in these US
military logs is reliable. Therefore we assessed this
category against IBC to determine what proportion of
these deaths are classified differently in IBC.
Specifically, to what extent does IBC record civilian
deaths where the logs record these deaths as 'Enemy'?

War logs category

Total deaths

Number of deaths sampled

Percent matched / Classification disputed

Estimated death classifications disputed

Enemy

23,984

4,950

14%

3,485 (95% CI: 2,992-3,978)

We found that the US military's classification is
disputed by existing press reports and other public
sources for roughly 14% of deaths in their ‘Enemy’
category, or an estimated 3,485 deaths (2,992-3,978).
We noted that in some of these cases the IBC database
recorded a number for civilian deaths given as a range
beginning with zero, such as 0-22 (e.g. k15375), which usually indicates that there already
was some disagreement over their classification in
our previously collected sources.

These results show that the US military are more
likely to classify deaths as ‘Enemy’ in the logs than
are other sources used by IBC, such as media reports.
Setting aside these disagreements, the Iraq War Logs
still record 20,499 (20,006-20,992) ‘Enemy’ deaths
whose classification as such is not disputed by other
existing data.

Deaths in Iraq War Logs & IBC compared

64,000 deaths are recorded in both IBC and the
logs

15,000 recorded in the logs are unrecorded in
IBC

27,000 recorded in IBC are unrecorded in the
logs

Both datasets include some deaths that are absent
in the other

Both IBC and the Iraq War Logs have omissions that
can be revealed by a detailed like with like
comparison. As discussed above, our analysis suggests
there are roughly 15,000 new civilian deaths in the
logs which were previously unknown and can be added
to the IBC database. Since we know the number of
deaths reported in the two datasets over the same
periods, we can also calculate the likely number of
omissions in the logs.

IBC has recorded 91,055 civilian deaths for the
period covered by the logs. Our analyses of the logs
suggest that they record 79,187 (78,191-80,183)
deaths of the same types recorded by IBC, with the
remainder of roughly 30,000 being deaths which IBC
defines as 'combatant' and does not include (e.g.,
Iraqi Army, US military, insurgents).

Our prior analysis above concluded that the logs are
likely to contain roughly 15,000 comparable deaths
that were not recorded by IBC. When this like with
like comparison is performed, it suggests that the
two datasets record roughly 64,000 of the same deaths
(79,000 minus 15,000). As such, there must remain
roughly 27,000 civilian deaths recorded by IBC that
are unaccounted for in the logs (91,000 minus
64,000). These relationships are illustrated by the
following Venn diagram:

At this early stage it is not possible to give a full
account of the IBC-recorded deaths that are missing
from the logs. We have, however, noticed some
problems with the logs that may be relevant. One such
issue is the presence of numerous simple coding
errors. For instance, there are many records where
the numerical columns register zero deaths yet the
verbal summary descriptions mention specific deaths.
This is another reason why every log requires
detailed human examination before the casualty
information it contains can be fully extracted. Such
coding errors make it impossible to accept simple
summations of the numerical columns in the logs as
providing a fully accurate representation of the
fatal incidents that these logs contain.4

4
Yet these simple summations appear to be the basis on
which a number of official US Department of Defense
announcements have been made, starting with the
reports of General David Petraeus to the US Congress
in 2007, and exemplified most recently by the DoD FOI
releases of 2010 first reported by AP on 14th October 2010.

In addition to such technical errors, some examples
of major omissions have already been found, such as
the complete absence of any substantive reports of
civilian casualties in the two major US military
operations in Fallujah in April and November 2004.
Corroborated sources that have been incorporated into
the IBC database provide evidence of at least 1,226
civilian deaths in these two assaults. The logs do
record almost 800 deaths classified as ‘Enemy’ during
these assaults, but appear to register no more than a
few deaths classified as ‘Civilian’. The reasons for
the almost total absence of civilian deaths recorded
in these cases are not clear, but this does show two
instances where many civilian casualties already
established in the public record are not recorded in
the logs. This and other such instances will likely
contribute to explaining the more than 25,000
civilian deaths recorded in IBC that appear to be
missing from the logs.

Total deaths 2003-2010

More than 150,000 people have been recorded
killed in the Iraq war to date.

80% of those killed were civilians.

The Iraq War Logs record deaths of all types,
including combatant deaths that fall outside the
scope of IBC’s civilian deaths database. This means
that they can also contribute to a broader accounting
of the total number of persons killed in the war,
civilian and combatant alike. Such a figure can be
derived by combining the IBC database, the new logs
(2004-2009), and other official information available
on combatant deaths in 2003, 2010 and the two months
missing from the logs (May 2004 and March 2009).

Combining these sources, the detailed calculation
below provides a figure of total Iraqi deaths, both
civilian and combatant, of 150,726. Adding figures on
Coalition military deaths, which now stand at 4,744,
brings the number up to 155,470. That is, given our
analysis of the new logs, as combined with other
previously reported deaths, we are now able to say
that more than 150,000 people have been recorded
killed in the Iraq war since 2003, of which around
80% were civilian.