Today’s Montana poll isn’t really new…just new to me. It puts Mitt Romney up by +17% over President Barack Obama. A newly released New York poll has Obama up by +32% over Romney.

The interesting poll comes from New Hampshire. Romney has led Obama in New Hampshire in at least 11 prior polls. The new Granite State poll shows Obama leading Romney by +10%—quite a turn-around!

The result is surprising, and I’ll remain a little skeptical until it is verified by a similar finding. (Speaking of surprising results, I am expecting a new South Carolina poll to be released sometime this week….)

With the new polls weighing in, Obama has gained very slightly. From 100,000 simulated elections, Obama gains +0.2% in his probability of winning (in an election held now) for a 99.6% overall probability. He gains, on average, +3 electoral votes for a total of 335 to Romney’s 203.

Obama

Romney

99.6% probability of winning

0.4% probability of winning

Mean of 335 electoral votes

Mean of 203 electoral votes

Here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations:

Ten most probable electoral vote outcomes for Obama:

329 electoral votes with a 2.61% probability

335 electoral votes with a 2.34% probability

342 electoral votes with a 2.21% probability

328 electoral votes with a 2.11% probability

343 electoral votes with a 2.09% probability

333 electoral votes with a 2.07% probability

332 electoral votes with a 2.02% probability

336 electoral votes with a 1.99% probability

344 electoral votes with a 1.97% probability

345 electoral votes with a 1.94% probability

After 100,000 simulations:

Obama wins 99.6%, Romney wins 0.4%.

Average (SE) EC votes for Obama: 335.2 (22.8)

Average (SE) EC votes for Romney: 202.8 (22.8)

Median (95% CI) EC votes for Obama: 335 (288, 382)

Median (95% CI) EC votes for Romney: 203 (156, 250)

Each column of this table shows the electoral vote total aggregated by different criteria for the probability of winning a state (Safe=100%, Strong=90%+, Leans=60%+, Weak=50%+):

Threshold

Safe

+ Strong

+ Leans

+ Weak

Safe Obama

63

Strong Obama

205

268

Leans Obama

60

60

328

Weak Obama

24

24

24

352

Weak Romney

0

0

0

186

Leans Romney

38

38

186

Strong Romney

87

148

Safe Romney

61

This table summarizes results by state. Click on the poll count to see the individual polls included for the state.

The SC results may well be a fluke (like, perhaps, the NH results). But that’s where the polls are at now. As I mention, a new SC poll is forthcoming.

Virginia is a different story. Check out the polling history:

Except for one brief period, Obama has dominated in Virginia. The complication is that Romney gained the advantage around election time in 2011. If I had to bet now, I’d call VA a toss-up, but with a very slight edge for Obama.

“Sex education is failing to reduce adolescent birthrates in conservative states, according to a new study … states with a majority conservative population and higher degree of religiosity tend to have higher teen birthrates. The findings suggest that the social structure of the state, such as the degree of conservatism, can undermine the effect of the sex curricula.”

It appears that while wingnuts are fucking the poor and minorities, their kids are fucking each other.

I’d like to believe that the recent poll shows that Granite Staters are returning to their senses. The beyond-wacky machinations of the current General Court (lower house of the legislature), such as the proposed Magna Carta basis for all state laws, have awakened popular attention to the awfulness of the GOP.

Hell, even the far-right Manchester Union-Leader casts scorn on the crazies in Concord.

@8 Given conservatives’ track record of ignoring anything in the Constitution that they find momentarily inconvenient (e.g., due process, right to jury trial, etc.), the Magna Carta wouldn’t fare any better, so why do they even bother? When you don’t believe in the rule of law, any document — regardless of what it’s called — its just a meaningless scrap of paper.

A Constitution or Magna Carta is no more meaningful than your willingness to impeach and remove an office holder of your own party for violating it.

@7 There are many pieces to the re-election puzzle, and most of them are lining up for Obama. The GOP is splintered, will have a weak and flawed nominee, faces voter backlash over its obstructionist behavior in Congress, and lacks a positive message. (They’re even bashing Clint Eastwood for talking about “American spirit”!) And wildcard events may work in Obama’s favor; for example, if war erupts with Iran, voters will be loathe to change commanders in chief. It just isn’t in the stars for the GOP to retake the W.H. this year, so if they’re smart, they’ll write off their presidential candidate and devote their resources to hanging onto as many House seats as possible and expanding their representation in the Senate.

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