Future Markets
The sharp decline of the telecommunications market in recent years has raised the question of what new markets, if any, will stimulate demand for NGSO launches in the future. Space tourism, or public space travel, appears to be a promising new market sector on the horizon. The question is when public space travel will emerge. In April 2001, the first paying space tourist, Dennis Tito, launched to the International Space Station (ISS) for a one-week visit. A second tourist, Mark Shuttleworth, was launched in April 2002. Other paying passengers are negotiating for rides, and studies have shown that enough of a business market exists, even at high prices. In the wake of the Columbia accident, future space tourist flights on Soyuz missions have been suspended and are not expected to resume until after the Space Shuttle returns to flight. With regards to the NGSO forecast, Soyuz tourist flights involve selling the third seat on regularly-scheduled return vehicle exchange missions that would have been launched with or without a paying passenger. Thus these missions did not generate launch demand. A viable public space travel market may require the right space vehicle. The next few years could see new vehicles emerge as attempts to win the $10 million X Prize, a contest to launch a reusable vehicle carrying up to three passengers to 100 kilometers (62 miles) altitude— a suborbital trajectory—twice within 14 days. Since this report only includes commercial missions to NGSO, new vehicles associated with the X Prize would likely not be included in the forecast. Several other small firms are developing vehicles for LEO markets. At this time, the public space travel market is still maturing
but could be included in future NGSO reports. It is uncertain if other markets, such as space-based manufacturing, onorbit resupply, or orbiting hotels, will emerge with associated launch demand by 2012.

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Despite the challenges, the commercial RLV industry remained resilient in 2002. Several commercial RLV companies remain committed to the goal of developing and operating their vehicles and are aggressively pursuing private investment. Many have abandoned NGSO payloads as their target market in favor of human space travel, which now seems to be a more promising enterprise. In addition, twenty organizations are vying for the X PRIZE®, several of which entered contention in 2002. At least one contender has begun testing its vehicle concepts.

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Success in the development of an X PRIZE® vehicle is Armadillo Aerospace’s first step to considering future suborbital and potentially orbital launch services. The company’s specific objective beyond winning the X PRIZE® is to adapt its X PRIZE® vehicle for space tourism and provide a suborbital platform for small microgravity research payloads. The X PRIZE® vehicle will consist of an autonomously-guided single stage powered by four canted motors fueled with hydrogen peroxide monopropellant. The vehicle will be designed to carry three 91-kilogram (200-pound) passengers to an altitude of 100 kilometers (62 miles).

After the X PRIZE is won...
Each year, X PRIZE Teams from around the World are invited to a single location to race and set new records.
During a 21 day period, teams launch as often as they can...
Teams are scored in 5 categories:
Category 1: Turn Around Time
Category 2: Max PAX
Category 3: Total PAX
Category 4: Max Altitude
Category 5: Fastest Flight Time
Combined Category Score = X PRIZE CUP Champion

(Also a full Economic Benefit to the X PRIZE Cup Venue information page with numbers.)