The trade has some merit but I think it's a bit premature. Looking at a 6month chart, if you draw channel lines for the last 6 months you see a definite down trending channel and it's at the top of the channel now and could head down. How far down? If you draw another channel from about Mar 7th until now you see a shorter term up trending channel. Which is currently about the middle of this channel I could see a pullback to about 134-135ish. The big move will happen near April 17th when it will be forced to choose WHICH channel to follow...the longer term downward or the shorter term upward.

Right now I think a Straddle might be a better move or just wait until it decides which channel to follow.

My experience with price is that when it gets in these consolidation channels then it either breaks much higher or much lower.

The only thing that seems certain is when price hits the top of the channel and doesnt make it through then it goes down. When it hits the bottom of the channel and doesnt make it through then it goes back up.

I dont see it going through 138. I make my stop at 139.

I also check the other variations of the etf for confirmation such as inverse spy SH and equal weight spy RSP.