Football Betting Strategy: Half Time/Full Time Betting

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'Half time/full time' betting might seem a mere middle ground between 'outright winner' and 'correct score' markets, but football betting fans know football is a game of two halves. And there’s value in knowing what that really means. Football betting strategy is often about spotting a team or players on a hot streak. A more nuanced, but no less statistically observable difference is that between teams who perform better in the first or second half.

Early Scorers

Take, for example, Liverpool’s 5-1 victory over Arsenal at Anfield in the 2013/14 English Premier League (EPL). Many predicted a tight game that either side could win, but within 20 minutes Liverpool had an unassailable lead. Why? Because they score early goals. Their 2013/14 EPL stats at the time of writing show 11 goals scored in the first 15 minutes. Overall, they’ve scored 46 in the first half, and ‘just’ 24 in the second half. Arsenal, in contrast, managed just six in the first 15 minutes and 18 in the first half. In the second half, their tally nearly doubles, to 34. So betting on Liverpool to win both halves was a viable bet.

Scores VS Concedes

To be more confident of the statistics, and to unlock some real value, it’s worth comparing how many a team scores in a given half against how many it concedes. Tottenham are an interesting example. In 2013/14 to date they have scored 11 in the first half, and conceded 13. In comparison, for the second half they’re 25-20 up. Those averages suggest that there’s a good chance of a match turnaround. And finding the teams that can turn a match around in the second half is a surefire way to profit in the Half Time/Full Time market.

Or VS And

Of course, taking on risk can push up losses – and a good strategy to mitigate those is to break down bets you’re less confident on into bets on the half time result, or on a team to win either the first or second half. The odds are generally lower, but come with a substantial reduction in risk.

A useful example here is Everton vs. West Ham on the 1st of March 2014. West Ham had conceded less than most in first half matchups, and Everton’s goals tend to come in the second. With West Ham on a good run of form, and Everton in a relative goal drought, it was arguably safer to bet on a draw at half time than risking a bet on the favourites (Everton) or the form team (West Ham) to snatch it in the second half through a 'half time/full time' bet.

Hedging

Another way to hedge, or take advantage of, your 'half time/full time' calls is to bet in-play. Having placed a pre-match bet, the market can be usefully hedged by using the same statistics to place bets on the 'time of goals' markets. So in the Everton vs. West Ham match, watching the sustained pressure into the second half may have usefully led punters to use some of their winnings from the draw at half time to back Everton to go on and win.