2015-22-0006

A provisional, age-dependent thoracic risk equation (or, “risk curve”) was derived to estimate moderate-to-fatal injury potential (AIS2+), pertaining to men with responses gaged by the advanced mid-sized male test dummy (THOR50). The derivation involved two distinct data sources: cases from real-world crashes (e.g., the National Automotive Sampling System, NASS) and cases involving post-mortem human subjects (PMHS). The derivation was therefore more comprehensive, as NASS datasets generally skew towards younger occupants, and PMHS datasets generally skew towards older occupants. However, known deficiencies had to be addressed (e.g., the NASS cases had unknown stimuli, and the PMHS tests required transformation of known stimuli into THOR50 stimuli).For the NASS portion of the analysis, chest-injury outcomes for adult male drivers about the size of the THOR50 were collected from real-world, 11-1 o’clock, full-engagement frontal crashes (NASS, 1995-2012 calendar years, 1985-2012 model-year light passenger vehicles). The screening for THOR50-sized men involved application of a set of newly-derived “correction” equations for self-reported height and weight data in NASS. Finally, THOR50 stimuli were estimated via field simulations involving attendant representative restraint systems, and those stimuli were then assigned to corresponding NASS cases (n=508).For the PMHS portion of the analysis, simulation-based closure equations were developed to convert PMHS stimuli into THOR50 stimuli. Specifically, closure equations were derived for the four measurement locations on the THOR50 chest by cross-correlating the results of matched-loading simulations between the test dummy and the age-dependent, Ford Human Body Model. The resulting closure equations demonstrated acceptable fidelity (n=75 matched simulations, R2≥0.99). These equations were applied to the THOR50-sized men in the PMHS dataset (n=20).The NASS and PMHS datasets were combined and subjected to survival analysis with event-frequency weighting and arbitrary censoring. The resulting risk curve - a function of peak THOR50 chest compression and age - demonstrated acceptable fidelity for recovering the AIS2+ chest injury rate of the combined dataset (i.e., IR_dataset=1.97% vs. curve-based IR_dataset = 1.98%).Additional sensitivity analyses showed that (a) binary logistic regression yielded a risk curve with nearly-identical fidelity, (b) there was only a slight advantage of combining the small-sample PMHS dataset with the large-sample NASS dataset, (c) use of the PMHS-based risk curve for risk estimation of the combined dataset yielded relatively poor performance (194% difference), and (d) when controlling for the type of contact (lab-consistent or not), the resulting risk curves were similar.