Saturday, June 29, 2013

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATESTROPICAL STORM RUMBIA (GORIO) UPDATE NUMBER 003 Issued: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Saturday 29 June 2013Next Update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Saturday 29 June 201306W (GORIO) has strengthened into a Tropical Storm (TS) and is now known internationally as "RUMBIA" - a Malaysian palm tree that yield sago. The storm is expected to make landfall over or near Borongan City in Eastern Samar this morning...and cross Bicol Region later this afternoon. Rainbands spreading across Bicol and Visayas.

This storm will enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) and bring windy/cloudy conditions with occasionally slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains and thunderstorms across Western Mindanao and Western Visayas today.

Residents and visitors along Eastern Visayas, Bicol and Luzon should closely monitor the development of RUMBIA (GORIO).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 6:00 am today, the center of TS Rumbia (Gorio) was located over the east coast of Samar...about 65 km east of Borongan City, Eastern Samar or 307 km southeast of Legazpi City, Albay...currently moving northwest with an accelerated forward speed of 26 km/hr in the general direction of the Northern Samar and Bicol Region.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to 65 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Rumbia (Gorio) is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 335 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Rumbia (Gorio) is estimated to be heavy (250 mm).

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TS Rumbia (Gorio) is expected to continue moving generally northwest throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Rumbia (Gorio) will traverse the Northern Samar Island this morning...and will be crossing Sorsogon-Albay-Camarines Sur, cutting across Mount Isarog (Camarines Sur) and Camarines Norte on Saturday evening until midnight...more or less 11 km NE of Naga City. Rumbia will then be passing over or very close to Polillo Island on Sunday early morning, making landfall over Northern Quezon Sunday morning...and cross Central Luzon through Sunday afternoon. By Monday morning, the storm will be over the West Philippine Sea...and exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). It will be approaching the southern coast of China on Tuesday morning.

Rumbia (Gorio) is forecast to slightly intensify for the next 12 hours...weakening slightly through the next 24 to 48 hours due to its interaction with the land mass of Luzon. Once the system reaches the West Philippine Sea on Sunday evening, it will regain strength.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

INNER RAINBANDS - spreading across Eastern Visayas. Affected Areas Samar Provinces:None.Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-85 kph) will be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading across the central and southern part Philippine Sea, rest of Eastern & Northern Visayas and Bicol Region. Affected Areas:Leyte, Sorsogon, Albay, Catanduanes, Camarines Provinces, Masbate, Burias and Ticao Islands, Northern Cebu, Surigao Del Norte incl. Dinagat and Siargao Islands, and Bohol.Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 250 mm (heavy) along areas to the south, west and near the center of Rumbia (Gorio).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!