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Originally posted by MikeS21 Surprise will be a rejuvinated and healthy Sean Casey. I'll predict a .310-.320 BA, 20-25 HR's, and 85 RBI's. Disappointment will be the "Danny Graves as a starter" experiment. As Red Leader said, you'll get about five good starts out of him, but by the All-Star break, Graves will be back in the bullpen with trade value around the Juan Castro level.

Hate to be biased, but ditto.

I'll add Russell Branyan to the list for pleasant surprises as well.

"I've never understood the term "women and children" as if their lives are somewhat more important than men."

One of the main reasons that scouts are interested in a players "makeup" is the near certainty that a player will be faced with adversity many times in his career.

How you respond to that adversity can differ greatly among players, and for that matter, individuals in all walks of life.

I pick Sean Casey for surprise of the year.

It may well be that his makeup hurt him while he was injured. He struggled to play through not just pain, but injury. I'm betting that he comes back more fit and more determined than ever to prove his detractors wrong.

"Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn't do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover."
~ Mark Twain

#1- Jr. will come back to form. There is no doubt in my mind that this is the year Jr. will show everyone why he is one of the Century's greatest players. NO ONE outside of this board expects/hopes he'll comeback strong so I'll include him on the "surprise" list.

#2- Provided he rests this month, Acevedo will breakout this year. All indications are that he will. He has done nothing but improve since his last stint with the team. My only fear are all those innings he used to improve himself coming back to hurt him. But if he stays healthy, I'm predicting 12-14 wins for the kid!

Surprise: Lopez will have 15 - 20 Home Runs. Casey will be hit well over .300. Dunn will hit 45+ Home runs. So will Jr. Graves will win 18. (The guy's known since last September he's going to be a starter. Do none of you think he's been conditioning for the job?)

Disappointment: Brandon Larson is going to have a hard time. That's the only guy I'm really down on heading into this year. I really don't think anything I wrote up top is completely unexpected either, all those numbers are where people should be at this point.

We are all in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars.
--Oscar Wilde

Griffey: 70 HR! .300 BA, .390 OBP, 140 RBI. Anyone remember before McGwire broke the single season HR record everyone thought Griffey, McGwire and Bonds were the three thought most likely to have a chance to break it? And remember that Griffey was the one most thought had the best chance?

Mateo: Somehow, someway, he gets an opportunity to play everyday at some point and hits .320 with 24 HR and steals 15 in only 400AB displaying his superior eye/hand coordination and bat speed along with his other tools.

Dempster: He gets back on track and is the Reds best starter. He K's 200 with a 3.45 ERA while averaging 7 innings per start and leads the team in CG.

Larson: He shocks people by hitting .290 with 35 HR and 100 RBI giving the Reds a middle of the lineup type bat at the bottom of the order.

Graves: He becomes the team's #2 starter and workhorse by averaging 7.5 innings per start and putting up a 3.71 ERA and wins 16 games.

Reitsma: Becomes the team's closer when Williamson struggles with consistency early on. People realize he has a 95 MPH fastball since he doesn't have to pace himself like he did as a starter and his K rates jump to near one K per inning. He combines that with his Hoffman-esque changeup and solid curveball to become an elite allstar closer in the Gagne/Smoltz/Baez mold(with a lesser fastball of course). He, along with Gagne, Smoltz and Baez, helps redefine the closer role like Vick, McNabb and Culpepper have to the QB position in football.

Disappointments:

Reggie Taylor: He falls in love with the short RF porch so much that he becomes even more determined to try to pull everything in the air out of the park. As a result, his BA plummets and the team realizes that Mateo is by far the better player. His stats might be something like this .245 BA, .260 OBP, 4 HR and 10 SB in 150 AB.

Lopez: He shows glimpses of brilliance, both offensively and defensively, but it becomes obvious that he is not yet the player he will become. He shows how raw he still is by hitting .220 with 7 HR, 10 SB and 20 BB in 400 AB.

Haynes: He proves to everyone how average he really is by putting up a 4.90 ERA and losing 15.

LaRue: Even while being one of the best defensive catchers in baseball, his hitting doesn't improve at all. His .240 BA and 15 HR will be masked by the fact that he becomes a pure pull hitter and pretty much an automatic out most of the time and will be undependable with runners in scoring position.

". . . acquiring J. Blanton from Oakland for, apparently, Bailey/Cueto, Votto and a lesser prospect. I do it in a second . . . The Reds' equation this year is simple: Make Matt Belisle your #3 starter . . . trade for Blanton, win 85 or more, be in the mix all summer." - Paul Daugherty, Feb. 8, 2008

I can't list Junior or Casey as surprises because that isn't true - there isn't a sportswriter around or a baseball exec who would be surprised by the reemergence of either. There may be doubters but I don't put either player in realm of surprising if they would have a good season. Larson likewise might have a great year but would that really be surprising given he's a first rounder who tore up AAA and showed well in a brief ML stint last year? To me a surprise is a player coming from nowhere or from a history of mediocrity to become a major player at least for a season. My pick is Juan Acevedo as the surprise of the year.

I just don't understand the pessimism Mike and Red Leader have about Graves. Maybe they've been watching a different pitcher than I have, maybe they just don't want to get their hopes too high, but I've said for a couple of years, along with others on here, that Graves is perfectly cast for the starting rotation. Personally I expect a solid season - 14-16 wins for Danny and an era below 3.50. The disappointment that I suspect will be Ryan Dempster - I know he has talent but I'm not sold on him. Hope I'm wrong but he's my pick for the belly flop of the summer.

Originally posted by Old Red Guard I can't list Junior or Casey as surprises because that isn't true - there isn't a sportswriter around or a baseball exec who would be surprised by the reemergence of either. There may be doubters but I don't put either player in realm of surprising if they would have a good season.

If Griffey or Casey have great seasons...that would be surprising, because nobody really thinks they will. Yeah...it's true that everybody knows that they are capable of having great seasons, but they also know that about JD Drew. Would you be suprised if JD Drew hit 40 homers? I would, but I know he's capable of it. If baseball execs truly thought that Griffey would have a breakout year...then they would be scrambling to trade for him. Do you think Bowden expects Griffey to have a breakout year? If he did....why would he even consider trading him? He wouldn't. The same thing goes for Casey. Just because you know a player is capable of greatness, and has even shown greatness in the past....doesn't mean you wouldn't be surprised if that greatness returns. I think the baseball world has all but given up on Griffey. Although.... that doesn't mean he can't surprise them.

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