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Western Balkans

The countries of the Western Balkans are geographically surrounded by EU member states, and the EU’s general approach towards the region is characterised by stabilisation through integration.

The conflicts which blighted the region in the 1990s posed an existential challenge to the Common Security and Foreign Policy (CFSP) and in 2003, the EU went beyond its declaratory statements and launched the first ever Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) mission, EUPM, in Bosnia and Herzegovina and subsequently, the first military operation, Concordia, in the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. Currently, the military operation EUFOR Althea in Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Union’s largest mission to date, EULEX, in Kosovo, provide tangible illustrations of the EU’s continued commitment to ensuring peace and stability in the region. Furthermore, the objectives of the Union and the work of the High Representative are also supported by the European Union Special Representatives (EUSRs) in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo.

On 1 July 2013, Croatia became the 28th member state of the European Union. In 2012, Montenegro opened the accession negotiations, followed by Serbia in 2013. In June 2018, the European Council agreed to conditionally open the accession negotiations with Albania and the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia in June 2019. The prospect of EU membership remains open to the potential candidates: Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo.

This Chaillot Paper, the 150th produced by the EUISS, aims to alert decision-makers to potential developments with significant strategic impact while they can still prepare for, or even avoid them. This is done using two methods combined: horizon-scanning as well as single scenario-building.

What will the Western Balkans look like in 2025? This Chaillot Paper presents three contrasting scenarios for the horizon of 2025 – best-case, medium-case, and worst-case, with each scenario taking account of the impact of underlying megatrends.

The Yearbook of European Security (YES) is the Institute’s annual publication compiling key information and data related to the CFSP and CSDP in 2017. YES 2018 provides an account of the EU’s engagement with the world through evidence-based, data-rich chapters.

During the seven years of the EU-facilitated dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina, known as the Brussels Dialogue, relations between the two sides have oscillated between normalisation and a state of strained peace and conflict prevention. What are the key obstacles to more constructive relations between both parties?

From 27 February to 2 March 2018, the EUISS held the second round of workshops for the project ‘Balkan Futures’. The project is implemented by the EUISS and supported by the European Fund for the Balkans (EFB).

Prepared by the EUISS with the support and cooperation of the European Fund for the Balkans (EFB) – examines how the Western Balkans has emerged once again as a potentially volatile geopolitical arena, and analyses the drivers underpinning both fragility and resilience in the countries of the region from a variety of perspectives.

This Alert examines how Chinese-financed infrastructure projects in the Western Balkans often serve as a conduit for China’s political and normative influence, exacerbating both the high levels of corruption and governance problems that exist in the region.

This Chaillot Paper, the 150th produced by the EUISS, aims to alert decision-makers to potential developments with significant strategic impact while they can still prepare for, or even avoid them. This is done using two methods combined: horizon-scanning as well as single scenario-building.

What will the Western Balkans look like in 2025? This Chaillot Paper presents three contrasting scenarios for the horizon of 2025 – best-case, medium-case, and worst-case, with each scenario taking account of the impact of underlying megatrends.

The Yearbook of European Security (YES) is the Institute’s annual publication compiling key information and data related to the CFSP and CSDP in 2017. YES 2018 provides an account of the EU’s engagement with the world through evidence-based, data-rich chapters.

During the seven years of the EU-facilitated dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina, known as the Brussels Dialogue, relations between the two sides have oscillated between normalisation and a state of strained peace and conflict prevention. What are the key obstacles to more constructive relations between both parties?

Prepared by the EUISS with the support and cooperation of the European Fund for the Balkans (EFB) – examines how the Western Balkans has emerged once again as a potentially volatile geopolitical arena, and analyses the drivers underpinning both fragility and resilience in the countries of the region from a variety of perspectives.

This Alert examines how Chinese-financed infrastructure projects in the Western Balkans often serve as a conduit for China’s political and normative influence, exacerbating both the high levels of corruption and governance problems that exist in the region.

This Brief focuses on the phenomenon of foreign fighters originating from the Western Balkans, and how countries in the region apply double standards in this regard, categorising Islamist foreign fighters as terrorists, whereas right-wing nationalist combatants who have fought in Ukraine are regarded as a secondary concern.

This Alert examines recent negative political developments in the Western Balkans, against the backdrop of a worrying drift towards illiberal authoritarianism in countries of the region. It argues that if local political actors do not take tangible steps towards reform to address the ongoing illiberal trends, political instability could re-emerge once again in the region.

This Brief shows that, in the case of the Western Balkans, improving resilience requires a careful analysis of how the enlargement process can be adapted and improved in order to maintain its transformative power, as well as ensure that reforms are both sustainable and irreversible.

From 27 February to 2 March 2018, the EUISS held the second round of workshops for the project ‘Balkan Futures’. The project is implemented by the EUISS and supported by the European Fund for the Balkans (EFB).

In cooperation with the Federal Ministry for Europe, Integration and Foreign Affairs of Austria and the European Stability Initiative, and with the support of the European Fund for the Balkans, the EU Institute for Security Studies organised an event at the Austrian Foreign Ministry in Vienna on 4th December 2015.

On Tuesday, 9 July 2013 in Brussels, the EUISS organised, in close cooperation with the European Policy Centre (EPC), a conference to discuss how far the Western Balkans have come in their European ambitions since the Thessaloniki Declaration of 2003. The debate was animated by many high-ranking experts from the EU and the region and the conclusions were made by the first Permanent Representative of Croatia to the EU.

This seminar, jointly organised by the EU Police Mission (EUPM) and the EUISS and held in Sarajevo on the 7-8 June, marked 10 years of EU civilian crisis management in the Western Balkans and examined the impact of the EUPM in Bosnia and Herzegovina and lessons learned for the future of CFSP/CSDP.