Sections

Standing outside of barn 3, stall 17 at Churchill Downs Monday
April 30th, I remember watching a groom carefully tend to Kentucky Derby
contender I’ll Have Another’s shoe and ask several other workers to feel
certain points from hoof to knee. A chiropractor going by the nickname of “The
Thumper”, a moniker that befits an injury attorney rather than equine
specialist, was standing several stalls down fielding questions from reporters
and allowing them to try out his vibrating machine on their heads. He was flown
in from Southern California with the rest of trainer Doug O’Neill’s operation for the main purpose of keeping I’ll Have Another limber and comfortable.

The entire scene did not give you the feeling I’ll Have Another
was ready to run the race of his life five days later. However, I turned around
and found O’Neill talking to a lone reporter. With a shaggy beard and wearing a
baseball cap he made an almost unrecognizable appearance. “Beautiful mover”, “Loves
the track”, “Can’t be doing any better”, were quotes that came pouring out from
the 43-year-old trainer. He was relaxed, extremely confident, and happy to be
flying somewhat under the radar. O’Neill attempted the Derby twice before,
failing to hit the board in either attempt, but felt I’ll Have Another was the
best shot he brought into the race so far.

I'll Have Another in his stall April 30th, 2012

On the track in the
mornings I’ll Have Another was very eager in his gallops. By Thursday it
almost appeared he was putting in an official workout down the backstretch, but
he would come back hardly blowing or breaking a sweat. Based on his last
two races, a belief the West Coasters were tough this year, and what I’d seen
in the mornings, I decided the horse would be on a majority of my betting
tickets.

When the gates opened for the 138thKentucky Derby, I’ll Have Another was
at 15-1 odds. O’Neill said if the colt was based on the East Coast and had Todd
Pletcher for a trainer he would have been among the top favorites. I’ll Have
Another will likely not go off in double digits again for quite some time.

Piloted by an unfamiliar-to-most 25-year-old jockey Mario
Gutierrez, I’ll Have Another sprung from post 19 and quickly made his way
closer to the rail in the opening stretch of the Kentucky Derby. He was
suddenly in an ideal spot taking a short route trip just behind a blistering
pace set by the favorite Bodemeister. Not only did Gutierrez arrange perfect
placement, but he also timed the upcoming winning move like a seasoned veteran.
Into the final turn he asked for more and got it eventually grinding his way
past a tiring Bodemeister to finish ahead by a length and a half at the wire.

L-R: Doug O'Neill, Gutierrez, Reddam, Dennis O'Neil

Gutierrez, a native of Mexico, toiled in the minor circuits of
Mexico City, Vancouver, and Northern California before catching the eye of owner
Paul Reddam at Santa Anita. Reddam decided to give him a shot on I‘ll Have
Another in the Robert Lewis (G2) in February, where he won off a layoff and
terrible race as a 43-1 shot. The partnership with the Derby contender was
solidified with that win, and Gutierrez clearly loves the colt saying he “always
reaches every step of the way”.

I’ll Have Another is by a modest sire Flower Alley, whose stud fee
is only $7,500. He is out of an Arch mare that only raced once and won. In the
Keeneland September weaning sale of 2010 he sold for a mere $11,000. The
following year he was sold again at the OBS Two Year Olds in Training sale for
$35,000, still on the extreme low end of the majority of Kentucky Derby
starters. Reddam said he thought it was a bargain at the time, but the price
was attributable to a slow 2-furlong breeze. He was certain I’ll Have Another
fit the profile for runners in his stable.

While I’ll Have Another deserves most of the attention, I would be
remiss not to mention Bodemeister’s effort. Setting torrid fractions­­– the
fifth fastest of all-time in the Kentucky Derby– he almost pulled off a
wire-to-wire victory. Afterwards trainer Bob Baffert and owner Ahmed Zayat
praised the horse and jockey Mike Smith, although I’m not sure accolades should
be given to the rider. Smith had to have known the pace would be quick with
Trinniberg and Hansen in the field, but stubbornly guided the colt to the lead
with no restraint whatsoever. Baffert said he would have nightmares about
Trinniberg costing him his 4thDerby
win, but after the first quarter mile Bodemeister was in the clear by over a
length at every call until the last. So, saying he was under a lot of pressure
the entire way is an overstatement. Nonetheless, Bodemeister is something
special and showed his brilliance to hang on for second. Other horses that were
just behind him on the pace– Hansen, Gemologist, Trinniberg, and Daddy Long
Legs– finished 9th, 16th, 17th, and 20threspectively.

Dullahan and Went the Day Well completed the superfecta and
appeared to be closing at the same lightning quick measure. If they had another
1/16thof a mile or
perhaps cleaner trips they would have caught the winner and runner-up. They
will both prove to be dangerous as they continue down the Triple Crown path and
into the Breeders’ Cup season.

As with all Derbies, there were rough trips and disappointments
for many. Union Rags, who left the gate as the second favorite, had a terrible
trip when sandwiched and pinched back from the start. Later, he met trouble
again when he was unable to get out of traffic along the rail to make a winning
move. My top pick, Gemologist, appeared to have a clear trip in the early
stages, but was too keyed up and essentially quit before the race really got
going. It was later revealed he suffered a bruised left front foot that was described as "dead lame".

For those who followed the Derby Trail from the beginning, it was
a more rewarding experience than usual. One Kentucky Derby starter began racing last year as early as May, three in June, and six in July, including the winner. That’s
half of the field competing in months when no one likes to even whisper Derby
talk.

Early juvenile graded stakes, which are commonly disregarded due
to their short distance and spot on the calendar, gained some much-needed
relevance. Races like the Best Pal (G2) at Del Mar and Saratoga Special (G2),
both held in August, had multiple Kentucky Derby starters, including I’ll Have
Another in the latter, battling it out over a mere 6 ½ furlongs. The granddaddy
of all redheaded stepchildren, The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) brought 9 of its
13 entrants to the First Saturday in May.

We also had our fair share of drama that included torn hooves,
chiropractors, cuts and infections, missed workouts, jockey switches and
indecisions, last minute defections, and even a childish owner obsessed with a
spray painted tail. It’s something new every year, which makes it an
always-intriguing path to follow. And when you’re rewarded with a deserving and
promising Kentucky Derby winner with humble connections, you hope the next
chase goes as well as the last.

You can only watch so many replays, read so many articles, hear so many
angles, and stare at the PPs until your eyes hurt, but the time comes to make a
decision. Every Derby is tough, but this year especially seems to be agonizing
with 12 horses I had difficulty ranking. Here are my final selections:

Win: #15 Gemologist

It came down to who has the least faults? You can’t fault an undefeated
horse who has won at Churchill twice around two turns, gets a favorable post,
has a Derby winning trainer, has a top jock, has the distance pedigree, has
shown an ability to stay behind the pacesetters, and has looked good training
on the track.

Place: #19 I’ll Have Another

Don’t like the post necessarily, but think it beats 1 through 6 in this
race, and with a lucky trip could be gliding right alongside Gemologist just
behind the 3 speedsters. Aside
from Creative Cause, an argument could be made he hasn’t beaten anyone, but
those two were well clear of the 3rd place finisher in the Santa
Anita Derby and he dominated the Bob Lewis before that. Speed figs in last 2
suggest he’s just on par. Looks ready to go during morning training.

Show: #8 Creative Cause

A shaky pick, but can’t let him go. Whispers of a hoof problem, but I doubt trainer Mike Harrington
would run him if it really was serious.
A lot of negative reports from the mornings too, but that’s been going
on since July. Bottom line, this
guys comes to race every time. Never
worse than 3rd and never beaten by over a length. Great pedigree and
suitable running style.

Rounding out the Super: Daddy Nose Best

Jumping on the bandwagon here, but has to be considered dangerous. Won twice at 9 furlongs and looks great
at Churchill. Big class test, but
speed figs suggest he can hang.

Scared to leave out

#11 Alpha

Despite skipping a planned workout two weeks ago, appears to be back on
track. If I’m all in on Gemologist
I need to pay attention to this guy too seeing as he only lost by a neck in the
Wood Memorial. Running style and
pedigree fit the bill, but he didn’t run well at Churchill in November. Could
have been attributed to acting up in the gate, but not so sure he’s over that
and will have to wait a long time for others to load Saturday.

I have left out the two favorites; #6
Bodemeister and #4 Union Rags. I’m going on the assumption pace and
crowd will do these two in. In the races where Bodemeister was restrained, he
did not appear comfortable although he still finished a game second to Creative
Cause in the San Felipe. As a fan I
actually hope he wins by daylight and proves to be the freak many are hoping
for, but chasing Trinniberg and Hansen will not be ideal.

Union Rags meanwhile will not like getting sandwiched towards the rail,
or even in close proximity to any of the 16 horses trying to get a shorter trip
to his outside. His best races have been in the clear and oftentimes on the
outside. That will not happen
Saturday.

19 of the 20 Kentucky Derby entrants hit the Churchill Downs track this
morning. Hansen made his first
appearance and appeared too amped up looking into the crowd, while Gemologist
and Union Rags continue to steal the gallop show. The roundup video from DRF’s Mike Welsch can fill you in on
all the details// Some great articles and angles from the big newspapers today
including New York Times and Wall Street Journal. Pat Forde of Yahoo! writes the article that needed to be
written on Dr. Hansen’s hunger for attention and how it takes away from his
horse// Handicapper picks are starting to come in and as expected they’re all
over the place// more…