Orioles Still Seek Top Young Pitching Talent For Machado

Gauging the value of stars on the trade block makes for popular sport among MLBTR readers. Quite often, we’re asked whether a given player could command, say, a “top 100 pitching prospect.” Now, we seem to have a clear test case, as the Orioles are reportedly trying to land just such a player — a top-end pitching prospect, that is — in talks involving star infielder Manny Machado.

It’s nothing new to suggest that the Baltimore organization would like to convert Machado into a talented young hurler, of course. The reported aim over the winter was to get two such arms in exchange for a single season of Machado. When that failed to materialize, the O’s instead held him in hopes of contending. Now, as the team pursues its fallback plan of a mid-season sell-off, it has continued to try to pry loose pitching talent as the headlining element of a return for Machado.

The most recent reports indicate that the O’s are still shooting for the moon. With several weeks left until the trade deadline, of course, that’s arguably just what they ought to be doing. Still, the odds seem long that the club’s most optimistic wishes will be fulfilled.

Baltimore will no doubt drive a particularly hard bargain with the Yankees, who stand as recent entrants to the Machado derby. The Orioles are willing to deal their best player to their division rivals, according to Jon Morosi of MLB.com (via Twitter), but only if they score pitching prospect Justus Sheffield. He’s an unsurprising target, but that appears to be rather a steep ask given the 22-year-old’s pedigree and performance this year. The southpaw entered the year rated as one of the game’s fifty or so best prospects and has mowed down hitters at both the Double-A and Triple-A levels, turning in 85 innings of 2.44 ERA ball with 10.1 K/9 against 4.0 BB/9.

Given the Yanks’ slate of needs, both now and in the near future, sending Sheffield out for Machado wouldn’t seem to make a whole lot of sense. Morosi does add on Twitter that the club’s “need for Machado increases greatly if they trade Miguel Andujar for a controllable pitcher,” but that concept seems to fold in quite a notable bit of speculation — namely, that the team is considering parting with the talented Andujar, who is already a useful (albeit still-raw) MLB player. Perhaps there are some low-likelihood scenarios where Yankees GM Brian Cashman manages such a multi-part balancing act, but that doesn’t make the concept of Sheffield-for-Machado any more facially reasonable as a value proposition.

It doesn’t seem that the Orioles are holding only the Yanks’ feet to the fire, however. Baltimore is also trying to secure a top young arm from the Indians, Morosi also tweets. The ask, in that case, is for either Triston McKenzie or Shane Bieber. Neither pitcher figures to be parted with lightly, particularly for a rental piece.

McKenzie graded as one of the best pitching prospects in baseball entering the year and has spun 38 1/3 innings of 3.05 ERA ball in his first attempt at the Double-A level. He’s not getting quite as many strikeouts as in prior years, with 7.5 per nine, but is allowing less than a batter per inning to get aboard. As for Bieber, he has never enjoyed the hype of McKenzie (to say nothing of the pop star who shares his last name). But he’s turning plenty of heads now. The 23-year-old owns a 3.47 ERA with 8.9 K/9 and 1.5 BB/9 through his first 36 1/3 MLB frames.

Needless to say, it’s particularly difficult to imagine the Cleveland organization giving up a player who is currently making a significant contribution in the majors. The same holds for the Brewers, who face a tight divisional race and have long been cited as a potential buyer of pitching.

In talks with Milwaukee, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported recently (subscription link), the O’s have tried with little success to get the Brewers to offer up Corbin Burnes. He, too, is a top-100 prospect. Despite middling results at Triple-A, he sported solid K/BB numbers there and just turned in a memorable MLB debut in a multi-inning relief capacity.

It came as some surprise, then, when Rosenthal’s colleague Jim Bowden tweeted today that the Brewers “have discussed [a] package” of not only Burnes, but also Keon Broxton and Orlando Arcia, as a potential means of landing Machado. Perhaps there’s more to this concept than is evident from that single tweet, but it seems questionable that the Milwaukee organization would even contemplate such an arrangement. Indeed, Jon Heyman of Fancred reports on Twitter that there’s “no way” of the O’s landing that particular haul for Machado.

Certainly, it’s understandable that the O’s are pushing to get a foundational arm as they bid adieu to a franchise cornerstone. And with so many contending clubs showing serious interest — the Dodgers, Diamondbacks, and Phillies are among the others tied to Machado in recent weeks — it’s still possible that there’ll be a surprising return. While plenty of other teams figure to function as sellers, after all, none have anything close to a rental player of Machado’s caliber on offer.

That said, the odds are decidedly against the Orioles convincing a contender to give up a quality, near-to-the-majors starter. Such players are not only prized for their long-term value — the tantalizing possibility of quality output at a bargain price for multiple seasons — but also their potential near-term impact. Some of the hurlers noted above have already or could soon reach the majors. And most of the top-rated pre-MLB hurlers could at least be significant staff members at some point in the 2019 season. Perhaps there’s some room for creativity, potentially including package arrangements and/or a willingness to pay down salary, to facilitate the acquisition of the type of asset the Orioles seek. But getting something done is going to require the exploration of quite a few possibilities and plenty of negotiation, which perhaps more than anything explains the volume of reporting we’ve seen of late on conceivable Machado trade permutations.

Comments

We would need to add a lot more just to get Machado. Not sure If Sheffield could even be the centerpiece part of the overall deal. My guess would be Sheffield, Frazier and a 3rd pitcher like Loaisiga and maybe they might want some lower minors guys. Maybe those 3 plus Drury might get both Manny and Britton? Either way, I’d rather pass on both guys and focus on starting pitching.

He’s a rental. I’d be surprised if the O’s got anywhere near that much. Based on the reports it sounds like they’re pushing as a young top pitching prospect as the centerpiece with other pieces filling in around. You’re talking about trading 2 top 100 pitchers and a guy who would be a top 100 position player if he was eligible. Way too much.

That’s insane. Machado is not needed and he’s a rental only. If you’re desperate, you pull the trigger. Yankees are not even close to desperate at SS or 3B. Sheffield could be a big rotation piece for the Yankees for years to come. No way you trade him for 2 months of a player you don’t need.

I very much think the Orioles can get a very nice haul for Manny Machado. The truth is that he could be very impactful for several of the teams— Yankees, Red Sox, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Brewers, Cubs—each of which is involved in a very tight divisional race. Put another way: none of these teams would be pleased seeing him go to their division rival. This bodes well for the Orioles — provided they don’t make their demands too high in a marketplace that is proving much shrewder than in years past.

This.
I thought Mr Todd’s article was very biased.
It stresses the value of prospects to contenders and never mentions the flip-side: a legitimate immediate significant lineup upgrade as the contender PURSUES A CHAMPIONSHIP.
That’s the point of it all. Something MLBTRs often forgets as it hypes prospects.

I couldn’t agree more. if the Cubs didn’t trade for Chapman, the Indians didn’t trade for Miller, the 2016 WS is a whole different story. Of course, the media only talks about Gleyber and Frazier, but I do think the price was worth it. I still think that the dodgers would have won the 2017 WS if they traded Verdugo for Hand.

What the Dodgers should have done was claim Justin Verlander on August waivers then offer the Tigers nothing for him. I doubt the Tigers would have just let him go on waivers and even if they wanted to I doubt Verlander would have approved it. No Verlander and the Astros don’t make it to the World Series. Yankees would have been an easier opponent.

If Houston had claimed Verlander then there would have been zero downside to claiming him for the Dodgers. And not hindsight considering Verlander was already a proven big-game pitcher before last postseason. Dodgers (and any contender really) had a lot to gain by ensuring that they wouldn’t have to face him in October).

“Biased” seems an odd way to describe an apparent difference of viewpoint on this particular topic. And I did mention the flip side — I noted that Machado is a unique talent on this market — but did not think it necessary to belabor a point (Machado is outstanding) with which everyone is well-acquainted.

In any event, I obviously understand that prospects must at times be sacrificed to improve a roster. And I really don’t hold (and did not mean to present) a general viewpoint that it is never reasonable to give up lots of potential future value for immediate improvements. I was simply explaining why it’s particularly difficult for teams to give up talented pitchers who are on the cusp of the majors, as they often are potential contributors in the immediate or near future.

As for Machado, specifically, the Orioles might well gin up enough of a bidding war to get what they are after. I noted as much. And I said there’s no reason not to try. I just gave my perspective on the difficulties of making that happen with a rental player, particularly under some of the specific scenarios being trotted out right now.

One key point is that, if you have a super valuable pitching prospect, you can also conceivably use that player as a key piece to land another, more controllable player to help you pursue a championship. It always depends upon market specifics, but that’d generally be the preferred option, surely.

“I thought Mr Todd’s article was very biased. It stresses the value of prospects and never mentions the flip-side: a legitimate immediate significant lineup upgrade as the contender PURSUES A CHAMPIONSHIP.”

Perhaps that because the point you raise is so obvious to all involved that it goes without saying? “Mr.” Jeff Todd is a number of things but biased is not one of them. Silly accusation.

The chance that Machado will put a team over-the-top, and win them a World Series, isn’t all that great. Will he help? Of course. However, pitching is of much greater importance when it comes to winning a World Series. I see where you’re coming from, but if I’m any of those teams, I’d much rather acquire a solid 1 or 2 starter, or really good bullpen help, as opposed to giving up a huge haul for a few months of Machado — if my goal is to win the World Series, this year. Once playoff time rolls around, it’s all about pitching and defense.

Book it Dan-O. Once his “GUY” says it’s done, it’s done. I’m all Yankees fans minds this is the deal…. 4 team trade: the Yankees get Machado, Trout and Harper. The O’s, Angels and Nats take the Yankees 47th thru 49th ranked prospects who are currently at low A level. That’s fair to all Yankee fans.

Stanton to the Yankees was predicted by everyone long before it actually happened. Trade deadline deals are a little more tricky. Just because the Yanks feel like they are close to a deal (if it is inside info hinting that they feel that way) it doesn’t mean someone else won’t sweep in with a better offer.

I think the Yanks also would want to not just RENT him but TRY him out and get a more intimate sense of how he plays in NY (and perhaps have him acclimate to NY), and thus whether they want to offer him something long term. In that way, this deal has a certain value beyond just the numbers.

ZERO chance the Yankees trade Sheffield, a likely middle of the rotation starter controllable for up to seven seasons, for thee months of Machado—less than zero.
Let’s start with the fact Machado “prefers” to play SS. And while he certainly is a better hitter than current Yankees SS Gregarious, Didi is the superior defender. Then there’s Andujar at third, who is having a potential ROY season.
Oh, and Machado is a right handed hitter and the Yanks need the better balance a lefty would provide.
Those in Baltimore can dream about landing blue chip prospects in a trade but frankly, whoever is running the team is an idiot. The time to get a franchise altering package of talent the O’s seem utterly unable to find and develop was LAST YEAR at this time.
But the few O’s fans left can always dream and remember the long gone glory days of Palmer, the Robinsons, Murray and Ripken.

I agree with you here. If i am correct, Machado stated that if he was traded to a team and the team that traded for him wanted him to play third, he would have no chance but to play third. That said, come the offseason he will shop himself as a SS. So what this means is if the Yankees trade for Machado to play 3B, then your potential AL ROY is out of a job and then if you resign him in the offseason, then Didi is out of a job. So you lose big prospects to get him for 2 months and then you lose Andujar or Didi forever to keep him around. It just doesnt seem worth it

Your arguments are always so disingenuous. You do realize to youd have to pay for that top 10 guy who might demand upwards of 350M? Why do that when you need to spend the money on SP with the offense being the best in the league, and two stars that you can control for much longer and cheaper? So no, the prospect loss paired with the potential loss of production from two players and good clubhouse presences for 350+M for a top 10 player that doesnt play a position the Yankees need (s t a r t i n g p i t c h i n g) is not worth it.

“Your arguments are always so disingenuous” How in the hell is my argument that when I’m not being any of the meanings to that word. I wasn’t talking about trading any prospects this season. What in the world do you know about those two players or any player for that matter being “good clubhouse presences” “loss of production from two players” never did I say to get rid of both Andujar and Gregorius but in fact posted “either Gregorius or Andujar” meaning of course ONE, so your loss of production point is null. Bottom line I was most certainly speaking of “this winter” and doesn’t preclude them from trading for pitching at the deadline.

What do you think of a Buehler, Muncy to Yanks for Andujar, Betances & Sheffield trade? We get 2B in Andujar, 8th inn specialist for pen & solid P prospect in Sheff. Yanks get cost/cont SP, 1B to pair w/Bird & then can go get rentals Machado/Britton. Thoughts?

#Dodgers infield will be set with Turner, Taylor, Andujar & Bellinger….OF Toles, Kemp, Puig/Joc….Bullpen for playoffs would have Maeda, Betances, Kenley, Alexander as our left specialist. Seems like a win win for both teams. Put Forsythe out to pasture.

Yanks get great cost controlled SP Buehler + great insurance at 1B with Muncy to pair with Bird, then they can go get rentals Machado/Britton (two prospects). So essentially losing Sheffield, Andujar plus 2 prospects for Buehler, Muncy, Machado, Britton…..

Don’t the Cardinals have two top 100 pitching prospects for Machado?? Gomber and Helsey’s names have been brought up as trade bate. Let Machado be welcome by 40,000 fans in a standing ovation every time he bats just like they did for Mark McGwire and Matt Holliday. Then, be the highest bidder by a wide margin over any other teams offer for 2019. Let this billion of dollars TV contract money work for something else than Ballpark Village!!!

You mentioned a couple names that should be attractive to the Orioles…….
But the real problem doesn’t rest with the Orioles.

1. There’s just no way that Mo has the balls to pull off a deal like that. He’ll make some sort of a lukewarm offer so he can say that he tried…. but he just won’t do it.

2. Adding Machado doesn’t really help the Cardinals because they need so much more than a single player. They have a lot of issues to deal with including the fact that there just isn’t a good vibe going on in The Dugout. Matheny is one of the most inept managers in Major League Baseball.
Mabry is one of the least talented hitting instructors in Major League Baseball.
DeWitt is one of the cheapest and greediest owners in Major League Baseball.

The Cardinals are more likely to trade valuable assets for Mike Moustakas ……who won’t really help them at all.

Gosh, if only the Orioles could land a guy like Sheffield in a deal involving Machado and the Yankees could also get pitching in the same deal…Like expanding the deal? Wait, that never happens. Definitely not for the Yankees, and definitely not recently at a deadline or anything.

Maybe because he’s controllable for 3 more years and the best SP available is J.A. Happ or Cole Hamels. Let’s not act like the two of those guys are so vastly superior to Kevin Gausman. How much value do you think Tyson Ross has? Less than Gausman.

Tell me is hamels any better at this point? Tyson Ross? Nope. There’s any number of teams who’d like to get their hands on Gausman and work out the kinks. Orioles don’t have the most pitcher friendly park or pitching development. Gausman certainly has more upside than any of those rental starters and is pretty damn close to their production as is.

You just said it all right there. Their numbers are so close it doesn’t really matter. If you’re going to slam Gausman and say he’s a #5 well then so are those 2. Only they’re on the downside of their careers and come with zero or unaffordable control. Cant have it both ways.

You’re only losing Burnes and Arcia in that trade. Broxton is no more than a fourth outfielder. Those K problems are ridiculous. I’d be more than happy to ship a couple relievers over to grab that package though. (Britton, Brach) Though id prefer we got prospects instead of 2 guys with years of MLB service time. Not complaining in a deal like that it’d be a big W for Baltimore but we shouldn’t be targeting guys like that. Makes me think Angelos has the thought that this is going to be a quick turnaround. Which is….uhhhh unlikely.

Remember when people were foolishly saying that the Orioles would get more during the year than they would in the offseason? Wrong. In fact, right now they are struggling to get half of what they asked for in the offseason.

The demands are ridiculous, and a Machado rental is losing value every day.

Like Cozart and Cain of 2017, Machado will end the season with the team he started it with because their teams botched the opportunity for a trade by asking too much. Baltimore will watch him walk as a free agent with nothing to show for it except a piddly compensation pick.

Cain wasn’t traded because KC was sitting 2 games back of Cleveland and holding the final WC spot as of August 1st. Royals fans would have been livid if the franchise sold off players while holding a playoff spot at the deadline.

Exactly. They should be working towards a complete rebuild. They have so many old players and bad contracts that they should dump everything they have that’s dead weight and work from scratch.
The first one to go should be Angelo’s cuz he’s destroying that team for this pig-headed attitude.

Because if you get near MLB ready pitching and you are planning an extended rebuild you flip that pitching at the deadline next year once they are established. If you just get a bunch of low level lottery tickets you have a much higher chance of winding up with nothing.

I didnt say for them to get lottery tickets. There are top prospects that are not close to being MLB ready. (lottery tickets are not top prospects that happen to be low in the low level of the minors, lottery tickets are prospects that are not highly regarded to be good MLB players but they are obviously very young and could still pan out).

A lot would have to go right for that to happen. No guarantee the pitcher stays healthy or has a good enough season to flip. I wasn’t suggesting low level lottery tickets. Could get near mlb ready position player. A pitcher could be their best return anyway, I just dont get the point of focusing on it.

Brewers are not trading Arcia and Burnes for a 3 month rental. I would rather have Cabrera, Dozier or Merrifield for middle IF help if thats how much its going to cost. Idk why people are giving up on Arcia. He’s a season removed from a 2.5 WAR season batting .277/.407/.731 while being one of the top defensive SS in the league. Keep in mind that he’s only 23! He developed some flaws in his swing that he needs to work out in the minors, thats not the 1st time that someone has went through a “sophomore slump”. I trust that Stearns won’t trade Arcia for a rental, but the notion that Arcia won’t be a productive MLB player in just nonsense.

No way in hell Cashman will trade Sheffield or any other GM give those kind of demands that the Orioles are asking for. Again the Oriole have no one to blame but themselves they had a chance last year at the all-star break or even this winter to trade a player that would have given that new team more ammunition from Machado.

Now they are asking for the moon on a two month rental that happens to be a free agent at the end of the year. Orioles dropped the ball and eventually they will either settle for fringe players in any organization that is looking to upgrade or they will look stupid and keep him and get a pick which would set that franchise back even further.

A GM’s job is to better his ballclub no matter whom you are looking to trade them too whether in your division or same city if Baltimore had simply traded Manny over the winter the Yankees would have bit and given them Andujar,Sheffield or Adams plus possibly even Florial but by stubbornly thinking they will be able to compete with a makeshift rotation the Orioles No Longer are in the Driver’s seat and all the GM’s know this.

Best case would be ask for tier 2 players and get some bodies in that minor league system and the Mets, Reds are another team that should be taken notice not to hang on too late with potential trading pieces before it too blows up in their faces.

Yeah the GMs that should be selling dont seem to understand that they dont have that much leverage just because the teams they sell to are in Win Now mode. Sure, Win Now mode teams are more desperate for players now, but if the sellers dont sell then they make no profit. Theres not even a clear fit for Machado on the Yankees and yet they ask for their best pitching prospect when SP is what the Yankees actually need? A bit of an FU from the Orioles FO if you ask me. If i’m the Yankees I wouldnt even consider falling to those demands

I would not trade Sheffield for half a year of Manny. He’s great, don’t get me wrong. But there are no guarantees he resigns. Meanwhile Sheffield can be a stud for years to come and we all know how shaky Yankees pitching is (besides Sevy & CC). I’d offer Baltimore a package including Abreu and Medina for machado since there still a few years away and have great upside.

I don’t see Cashman doing that giving up on Sheffield after giving up Miller for him more in line for him to give up would be Acevedo, Wade, Chance Adams players like that the reason being because he will have a numbers crunch to do soon because of the 40 man roster and whom to hold onto and protect and whom he feels would need to trade.

Right now in terms of better overall package the Yankees have the most players to offer at Tier 2 and lower and MLB players in the minors as well.

Yes Manny can impact any team that is fighting for a playoff spot but for a rental the demands will be lowered and the Orioles know that they had their best shot last year and this falls on the owner and not the GM.

If they want Machado for the playoff run this year you’re right it’s gonna take a better package then a Acevado-who’ll probably end up in the BP, Wade-Utility player who can’t seem to hit, Adams-someone who’s lost a lot of value and is another BP arm. If the O’s want quality starters how on earth would that package not insult them.

I’ve never liked the idea of the Braves trading for Machado but now I am even more opposed to it. The Braves have gone 15-16 since June. This looks more like what is expected of the Braves. Machado isn’t going to fix that by himself. The Braves need greater production out of SS. Machado would fix that..for two months. But they also need greater production out of Center Field, (Inciarte) two more quality relievers and probably even a JA Happ or something around that kind of starter. Getting all that at the cost of the Braves farm would decimate their depth and cost us a lot of quality prospects.

The Braves need to stick to the plan and wait for 2019. They will have some money to help those week points and have greater maturity from their prospects and rookies.

When his back hits the wall a deal will be made. A playoff team will look at Machado and the two will meet in the middle. I’ll tell you the biggest reason I’m confident about this is because IF Angelos gets that comp pick he has to pay out that signing bonus. It’d save him some coin to dump Machados salary and pick up a prospect he doesn’t have to pay out the signing bonus too. It’s sad that I believe that is a key factor in all of this, but I’d be lying if I said I didn’t.

Ultimately though it wouldn’t surprise me to see him go to the brewers. For some reason we LOVE players who hit HRs and have horrendous plate discipline. Broxton and Phillips fit that perfectly. The brewers can easily part with either one or both in a package for Machado. It’s unfortunate because I think we could find a lot more interesting pieces elsewhere. The dodgers have prospects I would certainly prefer but I don’t run the team.

The bottom line is that for anyone looking for a bat and a talent to put them over the top against other elite teams… Manny Machado is that available talent that can do so. The Yankees in my opinion probably have a strong enough farm to be able to withstand a deal for Machado and lose a few prospects. They are going to need help to edge out Boston for the AL East Crown and if they achieve that, they’re going to need help to combat the Astro’s if they meet them. Machado makes sense for the Yankees and if they can pry Britton along with Machado.. well I believe they will definitely be willing to make that sacrifice.

I don’t really understand the logic here. Yankees get 2 top 100 prospects plus a useful major league pitcher and nice lottery ticket for half a year of Chapman. Rangers get 3 above average prospects for half a year of Darvish (after completely botching the run up to the deadline and deciding to trade Darvish to whoever was still churning in the water at the last second). But Orioles fans should expect to be disappointed in the return for Machado because… JD Martinez trade? That’s absurd. Machado impacts the game in a positive way on both sides of the dish every day. Martinez was bashed all last summer (in large part by this site) for being a bat only player with a poor injury history. Even if you don’t like his SS defense (98% of plays made isn’t good enough?!), he is far from the bat only player that Martinez remains. And Machado carries no injury history that I am aware of. Just seriously flawed logic here. Ok, so you didn’t trot out the Martinez trade this time. But you have on multiple occasions in the recent past. The Martinez trade remains here like a vague whisper that you dare not mention (because it’s wrong!), though your logic remains the same, all that you’ve changed is that you’ve dropped your strongest premise. And don’t say that Chapman or Darvish are more valuable than Machado. Or go ahead, say it. But you’ll be wrong. Very wrong. Ok. Sorry. Love the site!

I agree with you that Machado may be worth more than Chapman, but almost everyone agrees that the Cubs overpayed for Chapman. Also you have to consider when you dont have a clear need for a player, the demand for him goes down. In the Cubs scenario they had a clear need for bullpen arms so the demand for Chapman went up. So its the opposite with Machado and the Yankees.

Here’s an interesting topic to talk about. What was the best offer made for Aroldis Chapman besides the Cubs’ offer? Did someone else offer a prospect who was close to as good as Gleyber Torres at the time? If so, then that’s the market for you. If not, then the Cubs really and truly botched that one. They could have gotten Chapman without giving up Gleyber Torres. The Yankees had to trade Chapman.
On Machado, it’s the same thing. He’s worth whatever the highest bidder says he’s worth. The only leverage the Orioles have is demand from other teams and the qualifying offer. I still think they will end up keeping him and QOing him.