Minsk electoral miscarriage

About the Author

Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.Visiting Fellow in Russian and Eurasian Studies and International Energy Policy in the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign and National Security Policy, a division of the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies, at The Heritage FoundationDouglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign and National Security Policy

On March 19,
Belarus, the last dictatorship in Europe, held presidential
elections. President Alexander Lukashenko claimed more than 80
percent of the vote after threatening to "wring necks to those who
threaten a coup."

About 10,000
protesters gathered in Minsk's central square but dispersed quickly
due to a blizzard -- and without violence. No expected "denim"
revolution there.

Mr. Lukashenko
conducted elections in an atmosphere of political repression, with
snipers posted in the center of Minsk, the nation's capital. Thanks
to thuggish tactics, a crooked electoral system, and a large slush
fund courtesy of Russia, the dictator may now remain in place
indefinitely.

To top it off,
Mr. Lukashenko called President Bush "terrorist No. 1 on the
planet."

The country
suffers from Mr. Lukashenko's cult of personality and his 12 years
of heavy-handed rule. He took office in 1994 and extended his term
two years later via an illegitimate constitutional amendment. A
rigged "referendum" in 2004 abolished presidential term limits. In
2006, Mr. Lukashenko criminalized "disseminating lies" about
Belarus abroad -- that is, criticizing his regime and making jokes
about himself.

Political power
is concentrated in Mr. Lukashenko's hands. Travel in and out of the
country is restricted, unexplained arrests and kangaroo courts
substitute for rule of law, and citizens have little freedom of
speech.

Mr. Lukashenko
also controls Belarus finances, circumventing parliament and his
Cabinet. He has even admitted there is a "presidential reserve
fund" of more than $1 billion.

Belarus'
relationship with Russia is key to the Lukashenko regime. Russia
sells gas to Belarus at a steep discount -- $46.68 per 1,000 cubic
meters (tcm ) -- which Belarus then resells to Europe at or just
below market rates of about $250 per tcm. Russia also provides
subsidized oil. All proceeds go to the Lukashenko presidential
fund. These proceeds fund an extensive social safety net, assuring
Mr. Lukashenko's re-election, while keeping the population at
subsistence level.

Mr.
Lukashenko's friendly relations with rogue regimes, particularly
his willingness to sell arms to Syria, Iran and (until March 2003)
Saddam Hussein's Iraq, are a source of unease in the West.
Belarusian exports to Iran have included tank parts, conventional
weapons, and Soviet-trained Belarusian scientists to work with
Iranians on uranium enrichment and the Shahab missile system. The
two countries have pledged mutual support in the face of
international criticism. Their close cooperation could blunt the
effectiveness of sanctions on either country.

In the run-up
to presidential elections, human-rights abuses and political abuses
have run rampant. Mr. Lukashenko has slashed the time candidates
had to fulfill eligibility requirements and banned political
protests. Secret police have targeted opposition groups, and
hundreds have suffered arrests and prosecution. U.S. envoy to
Belarus George Krol has described the odds of these elections being
free and fair as "dismal."

Two opposition
candidates campaigned for the presidency: the leading democratic
candidate Alexander Milinkevich and Alexander Kozulin. Authorities
declared illegal an earlier election rally for Mr. Milinkevich,
attended by thousands. Security forces dispersed the crowd, later
sentencing scores to 15 days in prison for "participating in an
illegal demonstration."

Throughout the
campaign season, opposition candidates have been denied access to
media outlets. The government has shut down several newspapers.
Others publish in Russia but their shipments are blocked at the
border. Journalists have been beaten and harassed. Members of the
Lukashenko entourage are suspected in the disappearance of two
prominent journalists investigating stories damaging to Minsk
officials.

Their presence
of foreign media in Belarus has been insufficient to counteract Mr.
Lukashenko's intimidation. Belarusian-language broadcasting by
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty is popular but not enough to
compete with the state-run media.

The U.S. and
countries in Europe have condemned Mr. Lukashenko's electoral
tactics. Now that Mr. Lukashenko is "re-elected," the West should
support opposition forces in Belarus and the movement for future
democratic change.

The Belarus
Democracy Act, passed by the U.S. Congress in 2004, provides for
sanctions and visa bans against Belarusian officials, freezing
Belarusian assets, banning government loans and investments in
Belarus, and funding expansion of broadcasting to Belarus. Thus
far, these tools have seen little use. Employed more aggressively,
these measures could pressure Mr. Lukashenko to pursue a more
democratic course.

The U.S. and
the European Union should step up promotion of democratic change in
Belarus. Western media should shine a spotlight on the elections.
Western officials, human-rights activists and nongovernmental
organization representatives should speak up on behalf of
Belarusians. To make an impact, Radio Liberty should increase its
broadcasts in Belarusian.

The West should
avoid conferring legitimacy on Mr. Lukashenko's presidency. The
elections are not free and fair, and the West should announce its
governments do not view Mr. Lukashenko as a legitimate head of
state.

Intelligence
communities need to step up monitoring Belarus' relations with
rogue states. This should also include investigation of its
criminal activities, such as arms smuggling, illegal arms trading
and possibly money laundering.

The regime's
more heinous acts, such as political killings, should have
consequences. Interpol should begin criminal proceedings against
Mr. Lukashenko and his supporters and Western courts should freeze
Belarusian state assets in the West.

Strong pressure
for change from the democratic opposition within Belarus and from
foreign countries may prove effective in dislodging Eastern
Europe's last Soviet-style dictatorship.

Ariel
Cohen is research fellow for Russian and Eurasian
studies at the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for
International Studies at the Heritage Foundation.

About the Author

Ariel Cohen, Ph.D.Visiting Fellow in Russian and Eurasian Studies and International Energy Policy in the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign and National Security Policy, a division of the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies, at The Heritage FoundationDouglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign and National Security Policy