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Climate change and food security: a framework documentFOREWORDClimate change will affect all four dimensions of food security: food availability, foodaccessibility, food utilization and food systems stability. It will have an impact on humanhealth, livelihood assets, food production and distribution channels, as well as changingpurchasing power and market flows. Its impacts will be both short term, resulting from morefrequent and more intense extreme weather events, and long term, caused by changingtemperatures and precipitation patterns, People who are already vulnerable and food insecure are likely to be the first affected.Agriculture-based livelihood systems that are already vulnerable to food insecurity faceimmediate risk of increased crop failure, new patterns of pests and diseases, lack ofappropriate seeds and planting material, and loss of livestock. People living on the coasts andfloodplains and in mountains, drylands and the Arctic are most at risk. As an indirect effect, low-income people everywhere, but particularly in urban areas, willbe at risk of food insecurity owing to loss of assets and lack of adequate insurance coverage.This may also lead to shifting vulnerabilities in both developing and developed countries. Food systems will also be affected through possible internal and international migration,resource- based conflicts and civil unrest triggered by climate change and its impacts. Agriculture, forestry and fisheries will not only be affected by climate change, but alsocontribute to it through emitting greenhouse gases. They also hold part of the remedy,however; they can contribute to climate change mitigation through reducing greenhouse gasemissions by changing agricultural practices. At the same time, it is necessary to strengthen the resilience of rural people and to helpthem cope with this additional threat to food security. Particularly in the agriculture sector,climate change adaptation can go hand-in-hand with mitigation. Climate change adaptationand mitigation measures need to be integrated into the overall development approaches andagenda. This document provides background information on the interrelationship between climatechange and food security, and ways to deal with the new threat. It also shows theopportunities for the agriculture sector to adapt, as well as describing how it can contribute tomitigating the climate challenge. Wulf Killmann Chairperson Interdepartmental Working Group on Climate Change iii

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Climate change and food security: a framework documentACKNOWLEDGEMENTSThis publication was prepared by FAO’s Interdepartmental Working Group (IDWG) on ClimateChange, chaired by Wulf Killmann, Director, Forest Products and Industries Division. The workhas benefited from the active support of many members of the IDWG and other colleagues inFAO, including Pierre Gerber and Henning Steinfeld, Catherine Batello, Theodore Friedrich andNguyen Nguu. Kakoli Ghosh, Josef Schmidhuber, Ali Gurkan, Yianna Lambrou, Cassandra deYoung, Susan Braatz, Jim Carle, John Latham, Jacob Burke and Jippe Hoogeveen, IsabelAlvarez, Barbara Cooney and Karel Callens. Particular thanks go to Prabhu Pingali, Keith Wiebe and Monica Zurek, Jasmine Hymans andStephan Baas and Michele Bernardi. The document was prepared in close collaboration with theStockholm Environment Institute (SEI). The IDWG gratefully acknowledges the contributions ofTom Downing, Barbara Huddleston and Gina Ziervogel, Oxford Office, SEI, to itsconceptualization and writing; to Barbara Huddleston, Jane Shaw and Maria Guardia for itsediting and layout; and to Anna Maria Alba for her work on the graphics. The English version of the full document and brochure, and the language versions of thebrochure, are available at: www.fao.org/clim/index_en.htm. ix

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Climate change and food security: a framework documentSUMMARYUntil recently, most assessments of the impact of climate change on the food and agriculturesector have focused on the implications for production and global supply of food, with lessconsideration of other components of the food chain. This paper takes a broader view andexplores the multiple effects that global warming and climate change could have on foodsystems and food security. It also suggests strategies for mitigating and adapting to climatechange in several key policy domains of importance for food security.Defining terms and conceptualizing relationshipsFood security is the outcome of food system processes all along the food chain. Climatechange will affect food security through its impacts on all components of global, national andlocal food systems. Climate change is real, and its first impacts are already being felt. It will first affect thepeople and food systems that are already vulnerable, but over time the geographic distributionof risk and vulnerability is likely to shift. Certain livelihood groups need immediate support,but everbody is at risk.Managing riskRisk exists when there is uncertainty about the future outcomes of ongoing processes or aboutthe occurrence of future events. Adaptation is about reducing and responding to the risksclimate change poses to people’s lives and livelihoods. Reducing uncertainty by improving the information base, and devising innovative schemesfor insuring against climate change hazards will both be important for successful adaptation.Adaptive management can be a particularly valuable tool for devising strategies that respondto the unique risks to which different ecosystems and livelihood groups are exposed.Strengthening resilienceStrengthening resilience involves adopting practices that enable vulnerable people to protectexisting livelihood systems, diversify their sources of income, change their livelihoodstrategies or migrate, if this is the best option. Changing consumption patterns and food preparation practices may be sufficient to protectfood security in many circumstances. Both market forces and voluntary choices influenceindividual decisions about what food to eat and how to maintain good health under a changingclimate. Safeguarding food security in the face of climate change also implies avoiding thedisruptions or declines in global and local food supplies that could result from changes intemperature and precipitation regimes and new patterns of pests and diseases. Raised productivity from improved agricultural water management will be crucial toensuring global food supply and global food security. Sustainable livestock managementpractices for adaptation and associated mitigation should also be given high priority.Conservation agriculture can make a significant difference to efficiency of water use, soilquality, capacity to withstand extreme events, and carbon sequestration. Promotingagrobiodiversity is particularly important for local adaptation and resilience. Meeting the growing demand for energy is a prerequisite for continued growth anddevelopment. Bioenergy is likely to play an increasingly important role, but its use should notundermine food security.Mitigating climate changeMitigating climate change means reducing greenhouse gas emissions and sequestering orstoring carbon in the short term, and of even greater importance making development xi

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Climate change and food security: a framework documentchoices that will reduce risk by curbing emissions over the long term. Although the entirefood system is a source of greenhouse gas emissions, primary production is by far the mostimportant component. Incentives are needed to persuade crop and livestock producers, agro-industries and ecosystem managers to adopt good practices for mitigating climate change.The way forwardIn the food and agriculture sector, adaptation and mitigation often go hand in hand, soadopting an integrated strategic approach represents the best way forward. Several funds within the United Nations system finance specific activities aimed atreducing greenhouse gas emissions and increasing resilience to the negative impacts ofclimate change. Because many mitigation actions that would have high payoffs also representgood options for adaptation within the food and agriculture sectors of low-income developingcountries, it may be possible to obtain additional resources from bilateral and multilateral aidagencies, which are becoming increasingly interested in investing development resources inadaptive responses to climate change. The ultimate goal of FAO’s climate change work is to inform and promote local dialogueabout what the impacts of climate change are likely to be and what options exist for reducingvulnerability, and to provide local communities with site-specific solutions.xii

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Climate change and food security: a framework documentSBSTA Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technical Advice (UNFCCC)SCCF Special Climate Change Fund (UNFCCC)SEI Stockholm Environment InstituteUN United NationsUNCED United Nations Conference on Environment and DevelopmentUNDP United Nations Development ProgrammeUNDPI United Nations Department of Public InformationUNEP United Nations Environment ProgrammeUNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural OrganizationUNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate ChangeUNFF United Nations Forum on ForestsUK DEFRA United Kingdom Department for Environment, Food and Rural AffairsWCRP World Climate Research ProgrammeWFS World Food SummitWHO World Health OrganizationWMO World Meteorological OrganizationWRI World Resources Institutexiv

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IntroductionINTRODUCTIONMean global temperatures have been increasing since about 1850, mainly owing to theaccumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The main causes are the burning offossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) to meet increasing energy demand, and the spread of intensiveagriculture to meet increasing food demand, which is often accompanied by deforestation.The process of global warming shows no signs of abating and is expected to bring about long-term changes in weather conditions. These changes will have serious impacts on the four dimensions of food security: foodavailability, food accessibility, food utilization and food system stability. Effects are alreadybeing felt in global food markets, and are likely to be particularly significant in specific rurallocations where crops fail and yields decline. Impacts will be felt in both rural and urbanlocations where supply chains are disrupted, market prices increase, assets and livelihoodopportunities are lost, purchasing power falls, human health is endangered, and affectedpeople are unable to cope. Until about 200 years ago, climate was a critical determinant for food security. Since theadvent of the industrial revolution, however, humanity’s ability to control the forces of natureand manage its own environment has grown enormously. As long as the economic returnsjustify the costs, people can now create artificial microclimates, breed plants and animals withdesired characteristics, enhance soil quality, and control the flow of water. Advances in storage, preservation and transport technologies have made food processingand packaging a new area of economic activity. This has allowed food distributors andretailers to develop long-distance marketing chains that move produce and packaged foodsthroughout the world at high speed and relatively low cost. Where supermarkets with a largevariety of standard-quality produce, available year-round, compete with small shops sellinghigh-quality but only seasonally available local produce, the supermarkets generally win out.1 The consumer demand that has driven the commercialization and integration of the globalfood chain derives from the mass conversion of farmers into wage-earning workers andmiddle-level managers, which is another consequence of the industrial revolution. Today,food insecurity persists primarily in those parts of the world where industrial agriculture,long-distance marketing chains and diversified non-agricultural livelihood opportunities arenot economically significant. At the global level, therefore, food system performance today depends more on climatethan it did 200 years ago; the possible impacts of climate change on food security have tendedto be viewed with most concern in locations where rainfed agriculture is still the primarysource of food and income. However, this viewpoint is short-sighted. It does not take account of the other potentiallysignificant impacts that climate change could have on the global food system, and particularlyon market prices. These impacts include those on the water and energy used in foodprocessing, cold storage, transport and intensive production, and those on food itself,reflecting higher market values for land and water and, possibly, payments to farmers forenvironmental services. Rising sea levels and increasing incidence of extreme events pose new risks for the assetsof people living in affected zones, threatening livelihoods and increasing vulnerability tofuture food insecurity in all parts of the globe. Such changes could result in a geographicredistribution of vulnerability and a relocalization of responsibility for food security –prospects that need to be considered in the formulation of adaptation strategies for people whoare currently vulnerable or could become so within the foreseeable future.1 For two recent discussions of the modernization processes that have transformed food systems in the past halfcentury, see FAO, 2004b: 1819; and Ericksen, 2006. 1

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Climate change and food security: a framework document The potential impacts of climate change on food security must therefore be viewed withinthe larger framework of changing earth system dynamics and observable changes in multiplesocio-economic and environmental variables. This paper seeks to illuminate the potentialimpacts, both the fairly certain and the highly uncertain, at least at the local level. Chapter 1 defines key terms and conceptual relationships and discusses possible impactsof climate change on food system performance and food security outcomes. Chapters 2 and 3provide detail about adaptation and mitigation options for the food and agriculture sector, andChapter 4 describes the institutional setting for acting to mitigate and adapt to climate change,and draws conclusions for follow-up action by FAO and the international community.2

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Defining terms and conceptualizing relationships1. DEFINING TERMS ANDCONCEPTUALIZINGRELATIONSHIPSFOOD SYSTEMS AND FOOD SECURITYFood securityIn May 2007, at the 33rd Session of the Committee on World Food Security, FAO issued astatement to reaffirm its vision of a food-secure world:“FAO’s vision of a world without hunger is one in which most people are able, by themselves, to obtainthe food they need for an active and healthy life, and where social safety nets ensure that those wholack resources still get enough to eat.” (FAO, 2007f) This vision has its roots in the definition of food security adopted at the World FoodSummit (WFS) in November 1996: “Food security exists when all people at all times havephysical or economic access to sufficient safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needsand food preferences for an active and healthy life” (FAO, 1996). In the year and a half following WFS, the Inter-Agency Working Group that establishedthe Food Insecurity and Vulnerability Information and Mapping System (FIVIMS) elaborateda conceptual framework that gave operational meaning to this definition (Figure 1). FAOreaffirmed this view in its first published assessment of the implications of climate change forfood security, contained in its 2015 to 2030 projections for world agriculture. FAO stressed that “food security depends more on socio-economic conditions than onagroclimatic ones, and on access to food rather than the production or physical availability offood”. It stated that, to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change on food security, “it is notenough to assess the impacts on domestic production in food-insecure countries. One also needs to(i) assess climate change impacts on foreign exchange earnings; (ii) determine the ability of food-surplus countries to increase their commercial exports or food aid; and (iii) analyse how theincomes of the poor will be affected by climate change” (FAO, 2003b: 365366).Food systemDefinitions of food security identify the outcomes of food security and are useful forformulating policies and deciding on actions, but the processes that lead to desired outcomesalso matter. Most current definitions of food security therefore include references to processesas well as outcomes. Recent work describing the functioning of food systems has helped toshow both desired food security goals and what needs to happen to bring these about. Between 1999 and 2003, a series of expert consultations, convened by the GlobalEnvironmental Change and Food Systems (GECAFS) project with FAO’s participation,developed a version of the FIVIMS framework that further clarifies how a variety ofprocesses along a food chain need to occur in order to bring about food security. Takentogether, these processes constitute the food system, and the performance of the food systemdetermines whether or not food security is achieved. GECAFS gives the following definitionand graphical representation (Figure 2): 3

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Deﬁning terms and conceptualizing relationshipsFigure 2. Food system activities and food security outcomes Food system ACTIVITIES Producing food: natural resources, inputs, technology... Processing and packaging food: raw materials, standards, storage life... Distributing and retailing food: transport, marketing, advertising... Consuming food: acquisition, preparation, socializing... Food system OUTCOMES contributing to: Social welfare Food security Environmental Income security/ FOOD FOOD Employment UTILIZATION natural capital ACCESS Wealth Ecosystems Nutritional value Affordability Social and stocks, flows Social value Allocation political capital Ecosystem Food safety Preference Human capital services FOOD Access to AVAILABILITY natural capital Production Distribution Exchange Source: GECAFS Online.Food chainThe sum of all the processes in a food system is sometimes referred to as a food chain, andoften given catchy slogans such as “from plough to plate” or “from farm to fork”. The mainconceptual difference between a food system and a food chain is that the system is holistic,comprising a set of simultaneously interacting processes, whereas the chain is linear,containing a sequence of activities that need to occur for people to obtain food. The concept of the food system is useful for scientists investigating cause and effectrelationships and feedback loops, and is important for the technical analyses that underpinpolicy recommendations. However, when communicating the findings of such investigationsit is often easier to use the concept of the food chain. The section on Food security and climate change: a conceptual framework (p. 10) presentsa simplified description of the dynamics of potential climate change impacts and feedbackloops in a holistic food system. The implications are discussed linearly, however, by lookingat projected changes for each of five of the most important climate variables for food systems,and at the potential impacts of each of these changes on each food system process. A food system comprises multiple food chains operating at the global, national and local levels.Some of these chains are very short and not very complex, while others circle the globe in anintricate web of interconnecting processes and links. One simple chain, which is important for foodsecurity in many households practising rainfed agriculture, begins with a staple cereal crop producedin a farmer’s field, moves with the harvested grain through a local mill and back to the farmer’shome as bags of flour, and finishes in the cooking pot and on the household members’ plates. This same household probably also participates in a more complex food chain to obtainsalt, which is locally available in only a few places, but is used worldwide as a preservativeand seasoning. Part of the meagre cash income of even the poorest farming households isoften set aside to purchase salt from passing traders or local stalls. A household’s food system comprises all the food chains it participates in to meet itsconsumption requirements and dietary preferences, and all the interactions and feedback loopsthat connect the different parts of these chains. The example of a simple two-commodity foodsystem (grain and salt) shows that it is very unlikely that a household can achieve foodsecurity without some cash expenditure. All households need sources of livelihood that givethem sufficient purchasing power to buy the food that they need but cannot or do not producefor their own consumption. Climate is a particularly important driver of food system performance at the farm end ofthe food chain, affecting the quantities and types of food produced and the adequacy of 5

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Climate change and food security: a framework documentproduction-related income. Extreme weather events can damage or destroy transport anddistribution infrastructure and affect other non-agricultural parts of the food system adversely. However, the impacts of climate change are likely to trigger adaptive responses that influence theenvironmental and socio-economic drivers of food system performance in positive as well asnegative ways. This paper is concerned with the projected balance of these various impacts on foodsystem performance and food security outcomes at the local and global levels.CLIMATE AND CLIMATE CHANGE2Climate and its measurementClimate refers to the characteristic conditions of the earth’s lower surface atmosphere at aspecific location; weather refers to the day-to-day fluctuations in these conditions at the samelocation. The variables that are commonly used by meteorologists to measure daily weatherphenomena are air temperature, precipitation (e.g., rain, sleet, snow and hail), atmosphericpressure and humidity, wind, and sunshine and cloud cover. When these weather phenomena are measured systematically at a specific location overseveral years, a record of observations is accumulated from which averages, ranges,maximums and minimums for each variable can be computed, along with the frequency andduration of more extreme events. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) requires the calculation of averages forconsecutive periods of 30 years, with the latest being from 1961 to 1990. Such a period is longenough to eliminate year-to-year variations. The averages are used in the study of climate change,and as a base with which current conditions can be compared (UK Met Office Online). Climate can be described at different scales. Global climate is the average temperature ofthe earth’s surface and the atmosphere in contact with it, and is measured by analysingthousands of temperature records collected from stations all over the world, both on land andat sea. Most current projections of climate change refer to global climate, but climate can alsobe described at other scales, based on records for weather variables collected from stations inthe zones concerned. Zonal climates include the following:x Latitudinal climates are temperature regimes determined by the location north or south of the equator. They include polar climate, temperate climate, sub-tropical climate and tropical climate.x Regional climates are patterns of weather that affect a significant geographical area and that can be identified by special features that distinguish them from other climate patterns. The main factors determining regional climate are: (i) differences in temperature caused by distance from the equator and seasonal changes in the angle of the sun’s rays as the earth rotates; (ii) planetary distribution of land and sea masses; and (iii) the worldwide system of winds, called the general circulation, which arises as a result of temperature difference between the equator and the poles. Examples of regional climates are maritime climate, continental climate, monsoon climate, Mediterranean climate, Sahelian climate and desert climate.x Local climates have influence over very small geographical areas, of only a few kilometres or tens of kilometres across. They include land and sea breezes, the orographic lifting of air masses and formation of clouds on the windward side of mountains, and the heat island effects of cities. Under certain conditions, local climatic effects may predominate over the more general pattern of regional or latitudinal climate. If the area involved is very small, such as in a flower bed or a shady grove, it may be referred to as a microclimate. Microclimates can also be2 Unless otherwise noted, definitions and explanations contained in this section are drawn from UK DEFRA, 2005.Annex I gives standard, internationally agreed terminology from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).6

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Defining terms and conceptualizing relationships created artificially, as in hothouses, museum displays or storage environments where temperature and humidity are controlled. Climate system The climate system is highly complex. Under the influence of the sun’s radiation, it determines the earth’s climate (WMO, 1992) and consists of: x the atmosphere: gaseous matter above the earth’s surface; x the hydrosphere: liquid water on or below the earth’s surface; x the cryosphere: snow and ice on or below the earth’s surface; x the lithosphere: earth’s land surface (e.g., rock, soil and sediment); x the biosphere: earth’s plants and animal life, including humans. Although climate per se relates only to the varying states of the earth’s atmosphere, the other parts of the climate system also have significant roles in forming climate, through their interactions with the atmosphere (Figure 3). The Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) has developed a list of variables essential for monitoring changes in the climate system. The list includes atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial phenomena, and covers all the spheres of the climate system (Annex I). Figure 3. The formation of climate Sun’s radiation interacting with The climate system Biosphere Lithosphere Atmosphere Hydrosphere Cryosphere(all living organisms, (soil, rock, sediment) (air, water vapour, other (liquid water) (snow, ice permafrost) including humans) gaseous matter) produces Atmospheric conditions (surface air temperature, precipitation, humidity/atmospheric pressure, cloud cover/ hours of sunshine, wind velocity and direction) Weather Climate (daily atmospheric conditions in a specific location) (average atmospheric conditions – means and variability – over 3 decades in a specific location) at different scales Global climate Latitudinal climates Regional climates Local and microclimates Source: FAO/NRCB. GCOS was established by WMO, the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the International Council for Science (ICSU) in 1992 to ensure that the observations and information needed to address climate-related issues are obtained and made available to all potential users. GCOS and its partners provide vital and continuous support to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the World Climate Research 7

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Climate change and food security: a framework documentProgramme (WCRP) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Thereporting system on essential climate variables provides information to (GCOS Online a):x characterize the state of the global climate system and its variability;x monitor the forcing of the climate system, by both natural and anthropogenic causes;x support attributions of climate change causes;x support predictions of global climate change;x enable projection of global climate change information to the regional and local scales;x enable characterization of extreme events that are important in impact assessment and adaptation, and to the assessment of risk and vulnerability.Climate variability and climate changeThere is no internationally agreed definition of the term “climate change” (see Annex II forinternationally agreed terminology on climate and climate change). Climate change can referto: (i) long-term changes in average weather conditions (WMO usage); (ii) all changes in theclimate system, including the drivers of change, the changes themselves and their effects(GCOS usage); or (iii) only human-induced changes in the climate system (UNFCCC usage). There is also no agreement on how to define the term “climate variability”. Climate hasbeen in a constant state of change throughout the earth’s 4.5 billion-year history, but most ofthese changes occur on astronomical or geological time scales, and are too slow to beobserved on a human scale. Natural climate variation on these scales is sometimes referred toas “climate variability”, as distinct from human-induced climate change. UNFCCC hasadopted this usage (e.g., UNFCCC, 1992). For meteorologists and climatologists, however,climate variability refers only to the year-to-year variations of atmospheric conditions arounda mean state (WMO, 1992). To assess climate change and food security, FAO prefers to use a comprehensivedefinition of climate change that encompasses changes in long-term averages for all theessential climate variables. For many of these variables, however, the observational record istoo short to clarify whether recent changes represent true shifts in long-term means (climatechange), or are simply anomalies around a stable mean (climate variability).Effects of global warming on the climate systemGlobal warming is the immediate consequence of increased greenhouse gas emissions with nooffsetting increases in carbon storage on earth. This paper is concerned mainly with theprojected effects of the current episode of human-induced global warming on the climatesystem, now and for the next several decades, as these are the effects that will both causeadditional stresses and create new opportunities for food systems, with consequentimplications for food security. The linear depiction shown in Figure 4 is a rough approximation of how the interactivedynamics of global warming, climate system response and changes in weather patterns maywork in different parts of the globe.Acclimatization, adaptation and mitigationAcclimatization is essentially adaptation that occurs spontaneously through self-directedefforts. Adaptation to climate change involves deliberate adjustments in natural or humansystems and behaviours to reduce the risks to people’s lives and livelihoods. Mitigation ofclimate change involves actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and sequester or storecarbon in the short term, and development choices that will lead to low emissions in the longterm. Acclimatization is a powerful and effective adaptation strategy. In simple terms, it meansgetting used to climate change and learning to live comfortably with it. All living organisms,including humans, adapt and develop in response to changes in climate and habitat. Some8

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Defining terms and conceptualizing relationshipsadaptations may be biological – for example, human physiology may become more heat-tolerant as global temperatures rise – but many are likely to involve changes in perceptionsand mental attitudes that reinforce new, more adapted responses to extreme events.CLIMATE CHANGE AND FOOD SECURITYAgriculture, climate and food securityAgriculture is important for food security in two ways: it produces the food people eat; and(perhaps even more important) it provides the primary source of livelihood for 36 percent ofthe world’s total workforce. In the heavily populated countries of Asia and the Pacific, thisshare ranges from 40 to 50 percent, and in sub-Saharan Africa, two-thirds of the workingpopulation still make their living from agriculture (ILO, 2007). If agricultural production inthe low-income developing countries of Asia and Africa is adversely affected by climatechange, the livelihoods of large numbers of the rural poor will be put at risk and theirvulnerability to food insecurity increased. 9

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Defining terms and conceptualizing relationships Agriculture, forestry and fisheries are all sensitive to climate. Their production processesare therefore likely to be affected by climate change. In general, impacts are expected to bepositive in temperate regions and negative in tropical ones, but there is still uncertainly abouthow projected changes will play out at the local level, and potential impacts may be altered bythe adoption of risk management measures and adaptation strategies that strengthenpreparedness and resilience. The food security implications of changes in agricultural production patterns andperformance are of two kinds:x Impacts on the production of food will affect food supply at the global and local levels. Globally, higher yields in temperate regions could offset lower yields in tropical regions. However, in many low-income countries with limited financial capacity to trade and high dependence on their own production to cover food requirements, it may not be possible to offset declines in local supply without increasing reliance on food aid.x Impacts on all forms of agricultural production will affect livelihoods and access to food. Producer groups that are less able to deal with climate change, such as the rural poor in developing countries, risk having their safety and welfare compromised. Other food system processes, such as food processing, distribution, acquisition,preparation and consumption, are as important for food security as food and agriculturalproduction are. Technological advances and the development of long-distance marketingchains that move produce and packaged foods throughout the world at high speed andrelatively low cost have made overall food system performance far less dependent on climatethan it was 200 years ago. However, as the frequency and intensity of severe weather increase, there is a growing riskof storm damage to transport and distribution infrastructure, with consequent disruption offood supply chains. The rising cost of energy and the need to reduce fossil fuel usage alongthe food chain have led to a new calculus – “food miles”, which should be kept as low aspossible to reduce emissions. These factors could result in more local responsibility for foodsecurity, which needs to be considered in the formulation of adaptation strategies for peoplewho are currently vulnerable or who could become so within the foreseeable future.Food security and climate change: a conceptual frameworkFood systems exist in the biosphere, along with all other manifestations of human activity. Asshown in Figure 4, some of the significant changes in the biosphere that are expected to resultfrom global warming will occur in the more distant future, as a consequence of changes inaverage weather conditions. In Figure 4, the most likely scenarios of climate change indicatethat increases in weather variability and the incidence of extreme weather events will beparticularly significant now and in the immediate future. The projected increases in mean temperatures and precipitation will not manifest throughconstant gradual changes, but will instead be experienced as increased frequency, durationand intensity of hot spells and precipitation events. Whereas the annual occurrence of hotdays, and maximum temperatures are expected to increase in all parts of the globe, the meanglobal increase in precipitation is not expected to be uniformly distributed around the world.In general, it is projected that wet regions will become wetter and dry regions dryer. For this analysis, a conceptual framework on climate change and food security interactionswas developed to highlight the variables defining the food and climate systems. The climatechange and food security (CCFS) framework (Figure 5 and Table 1) shows how climatechange affects food security outcomes for the four components of food security – foodavailability, food accessibility, food utilization and food system stability – in various directand indirect ways. Climate change variables influence biophysical factors, such as plant and animal growth,water cycles, biodiversity and nutrient cycling, and the ways in which these are managed 11

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Climate change and food security: a framework documentthrough agricultural practices and land use for food production. However, climate variablesalso have an impact on physical/human capital – such as roads, storage and marketinginfrastructure, houses, productive assets, electricity grids, and human health – whichindirectly changes the economic and socio-political factors that govern food access andutilization and can threaten the stability of food systems. All of these impacts manifest themselves in the ways in which food system activities arecarried out. The framework illustrates how adaptive adjustments to food system activities willbe needed all along the food chain to cope with the impacts of climate change. The climate change variables considered in the CCFS framework are:x the CO2 fertilization effect of increased greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere;x increasing mean, maximum and minimum temperatures;x gradual changes in precipitation: increase in the frequency, duration and intensity of dry spells and droughts; changes in the timing, duration, intensity and geographic location of rain and snowfall;x increase in the frequency and intensity of storms and floods;x greater seasonal weather variability and changes in start/end of growing seasons. This paper does not discuss in detail the wider set of factors/driving forces that governfood system activities and food security, such as demographic developments, changes ineconomic systems and trade flows, science and technology developments or shifts in culturalpractices; a wide range of literature is available on each of these. Instead, the paper focuses ondisentangling the pathways of climate change impacts on food system activities and foodsecurity outcomes. Evidence indicates that more frequent and more intense extreme weather events (droughts,heat and cold waves, heavy storms, floods), rising sea levels and increasing irregularities inseasonal rainfall patterns (including flooding) are already having immediate impacts on notonly food production, but also food distribution infrastructure, incidence of food emergencies,livelihood assets and human health in both rural and urban areas. In addition, less immediate impacts are expected to result from gradual changes in meantemperatures and rainfall. These will affect the suitability of land for different types of cropsand pasture; the health and productivity of forests; the distribution, productivity andcommunity composition of marine resources; the incidence and vectors of different types ofpests and diseases; the biodiversity and ecosystem functioning of natural habitats; and theavailability of good-quality water for crop, livestock and inland fish production. Arable landis likely to be lost owing to increased aridity (and associated salinity), groundwater depletionand sea-level rise. Food systems will be affected by internal and international migration,resource-based conflicts and civil unrest triggered by climate change.Vulnerability to climate changeUncertainty and risk: Risk exists when there is uncertainty about the future outcomes ofongoing processes or about the occurrence of future events. The more certain an outcome is,the less risk there is, because certainty allows informed choices and preparation to deal withthe impacts of hazardous processes or events. Global climate change projections have a solid scientific basis, and there is growingcertainty that extreme weather events are going to increase in frequency and intensity. Thismakes it highly likely that asset losses attributable to weather-related disasters will increase.Whether these losses involve productive assets, personal possessions or even loss of life, thelivelihoods and food security status of millions of people in disaster-prone areas will beadversely affected.12

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Table 1 Potential impacts of climate change on food systems and food security, and possible adaptive responses A. CO2 fertilization effects Impact on food system Impact on food system Impact on food security Impact on other human Possible adaptive responses assets activities outcomes well-being outcomesProduction assets: Producing food: Food availability (production, Livelihoods: Policies and regulations: More luxuriant biomass distribution, exchange): Increase in availability of   Increased income from  Avoidance of subsidies or atmospheric carbon dioxide  Higher yields of food and  Increased food production in improved food and cash other monetary or non- for plant growth cash crops, mainly in major exporting countries crop performance would monetary incentives for temperate regions would contribute to global food benefit commercial farmers diversion of food production supply but diversion of land in developed countries but assets to other uses from food to more not in developing countries economically attractive cash crops could negate this benefit Food accessibility (allocation, affordability, preference):  Increases in food production would limit price increases on world markets, but diversion of productive assets to other cash crops could cause food prices to rise

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B. Increase in global mean temperatures Impact on food system Impact on food system Impact on food security Impact on other human Possible adaptive responses assets activities outcomes well-being outcomesProduction assets: Producing food: Food availability (production, Livelihoods: Policies and regulations Trend changes in suitability of  Immediate crop and livestock distribution, exchange):  Trend changes in vectors  Greater reliance on weather- land for crop and livestock losses due to heat and water  Reduced production of food and natural habitats of pests related insurance production stress crops and livestock products in and diseases that affect  Development of risk Gradual loss of biodiversity  Lower yields from dairy affected areas human health and management frameworks animals  Local losses could have productivity Trend changes in vectors and Farming, forestry and fishery natural habitats of plant and  Reduced labour productivity temporary effect on local Social values and behaviours: practices animal pests and diseases due to heat stress markets,  Acceptance of a greater  Trend changes in croppingStorage, transport and  Trend impacts uncertain,  Reduction in global supplies degree of risk and patternsmarketing infrastructure: conditional on location, likely to cause market prices to uncertainty as a natural rise  Development and availability of water and condition of life Strain on electricity grids, air dissemination of more heat- conditioning and cold storage adoption of new cropping Food accessibility (allocation, National and global tolerant varieties and species capacity patterns by farmers affordability, preference): economies: Food processing, distribution Storing and processing of food:  Impacts on incomes, prices  Reorientation of public and and marketing practices and affordability uncertain private sector investments  Upgrade in cooling and  Greater use of alternative storage facilities required to  Changes in preference towards mitigating and fuels for generating electricity maintain food quality at uncertain adapting to climate change Food preparation practices higher temperatures Food utilization (nutritional value, social value, food safety):  Greater use of alternative  Increasing energy fuels for home cooking requirements for cooling  Risk of dehydration Consuming food:  Risk of ill health from eating  Higher intake of liquids food that is spoiled  Lower intake of cooked food  Ability of body to process food reduced due to heat stress or  Perishable products have diseases shorter shelf life Food system stability:  More need for refrigeration  Higher cost for storing grain  Heat stress may negatively and perishable products affect people’s ability to access food (no energy to shop or do productive work)

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C.1. Gradual changes in precipitation (increase in the frequency, duration and intensity of dry spells and droughts) Impact on food system Impact on food system Impact on food security Impact on other human Possible adaptive responses assets activities outcomes well-being outcomesProduction assets Producing food: Food availability (production, Livelihoods: Policies and regulations: distribution, exchange): Loss of perennial crops and  Immediate crop and livestock  Decline in expenditure for  Greater reliance on weather- vegetative cover for grazing losses due to water stress  Declines in production other basic needs, e.g., related insurance and fuel wood due to water clothing, shelter, health,  Trend declines in yields  Wild foods less available  Development of risk stress and increasing fire education management frameworks hazard  Change in irrigation  Pressure on grain reserves  Trend changes in vectors requirements Infrastructure investments Loss of livestock due to water  Decrease in food exports / and natural habitats of pests stress and lack of feed Storing/processing of food: increase in food imports and diseases that affect  New investment in irrigation human health and for intensive agriculture Loss of productive assets due  Less need for chemicals to  Increased need for food aid productivity where water resources permit to hardship sales preserve stored grain Food accessibility (allocation, Farming, forestry and fishery Social values and behaviours: Loss of buildings, equipment  Scarcity of water for food affordability, preference): practices and vehicles and other processing  Food scarcity strains ability  Local increase in food prices in productive assets due to fire to meet reciprocal food-  Trend changes in cropping Distributing food: drought-affected areas sharing obligations patterns Changes in rates of soil  Easier movement of vehicles  Loss of farm income and non- moisture retention and aquifer National and global  Development and on dry land farm employment recharge economies: dissemination of more Consuming food:  Preferred foods not available drought-tolerant varieties and Trend changes in suitability of  Strain on national budgets or too costly species land for crop and livestock  May not be possible to and aid resources due to production continue growing preferred Food utilization: increased need for food  Use of moisture-retaining foods safety nets land management practices Gradual loss of biodiversity  Risk of dehydration  May be necessary to  Use of recycled wastewater Trend changes in vectors and  Ability of body to process food purchase a larger proportion for irrigation natural habitats of plant and reduced due to diseases of foods consumed animal pests and diseases Food processing practices:  Dietary adjustments with  Diet may become less varied different nutritional contentFood preparation assets  Use of recycled wastewater and / or less nutritious Lack of water for cooking Food system stability:  Use of dry processing and  Greater instability of food packaging methods Lack of vegetation for fuel supply, food prices and Food preparation practices agriculturally-based incomes  Use of dry cooking methods

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C.2. Gradual changes in precipitation (changes in timing, location and amounts of rain and snowfall) Impact on food system Impact on food system Impact on food security Impact on other human Possible adaptive responses assets activities outcomes well-being outcomesProduction assets Producing food: Food availability (production, Livelihoods: Policies and regulations: Changes in rates of soil  Trend impacts on yields distribution, exchange):  Changes in geographic  More aggressive support for moisture retention and aquifer uncertain, conditional on  Some local losses virtually distribution of vulnerability efficient water management recharge location, availability of water certain, but their likely Social values and behaviours: policies and water use Increase in proportion of and adoption of new cropping geographic distribution is not regulations  Acceptance of a greater global population exposed to patterns by farmers known  Full-cost pricing for water degree of risk and water scarcities Consuming food:  Likely impact on global uncertainty as a natural Infrastructure investments: Changes in locations where  Changes in consumption supplies, trade and world condition of life market prices is not known  New investment in irrigation investment in irrigation is patterns may occur, in National and global for expanding intensive economically feasible response to changes in Food accessibility (allocation, economies: agriculture where available Trend changes in suitability of relative prices affordability, preference): water resources permit  Reorientation of public and land for crop and livestock  Full-cost pricing for water may private sector investments Farming, forestry and fishery production cause food prices to rise towards mitigating and practices Trend changes in vectors and Food system stability: adapting to climate change  Use of moisture-retaining natural habitats of plant and  Greater instability of food land management practices animal pests and diseases supply, food prices and  Use of recycled wastewater agriculturally-based incomes is for irrigation likely Food processing practices:  Use of recycled wastewater for plant hygiene Food safety and preventive healthcare practices:  Use of recycled wastewater for home hygiene

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E. Impacts of greater weather variability Impact on food system Impact on food system Impact on food security Impact on other human Possible adaptive options assets activities Outcomes well-being outcomes Production assets: Producing food: Food availability: Livelihoods: Policies and regulations  Change in frequency and  Increasing uncertainty  Some local losses virtually  Decline in expenditure for  Greater reliance on weather- extent of pests and diseases  Changing yields certain, but their likely other basic needs, e.g., related insurance geographic distribution is not clothing, shelter, health,  Development of risk  Changing land use patterns known education management frameworks  Viability of production  Likely impact on global  Trend changes in vectors Farming, forestry and fishery systems may be undermined supplies, trade and world and natural habitats of pests practices market prices is not known and diseases that affect  Trend changes in cropping Food accessibility: human health and patterns productivity  Reduced yields may lead to  Changes in water loss of farm income, but this  Changes in geographic management regimes depends on market conditions distribution of vulnerability Food system stability: Social values and behaviours:  Greater instability of food  Acceptance of a greater supply, food prices and degree of risk and agriculturally-based incomes is uncertainty as a natural likely condition of life National and global economies:  Reorientation of public and private sector investments towards mitigating and adapting to climate changeSource: FAO/IDWG on Climate Change. Table produced for this report.

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Climate change and food security: a framework document An average of 500 weather-related disasters are now taking place each year, comparedwith 120 in the 1980s; the number of floods has increased sixfold over the same period(Oxfam, 2007). Population increases, especially in coastal areas, where most of the world’spopulation now lives, mean that more and more people will be affected by catastrophicweather events. The international aid community has developed an immediate response capacity that canlimit loss of life, but there is a growing risk that its ability to assist affected people inreplacing lost assets and recovering livelihoods following climate-related natural disasterswill be overwhelmed. Increasing weather-related losses are causing private sector insurers torestrict the types of natural disasters or catastrophic events that can be insured, and it is notclear whether public sector safety net programmes will be able to fill the subsequent gaps. Although the areas that are vulnerable to extreme weather events are generally known,there is still a lack of reliable information about how future changes in temperature andprecipitation regimes will affect specific locations. Further scientific work can reduce thecurrent knowledge gap, but these aspects of climate change are likely to remain uncertain forthe foreseeable future, making investments in agriculture and other weather-dependentlivelihoods inherently more risky. The limited risk absorption capacity of poor people means that they are unlikely to be ableto cope with the added risk imposed by climate change. These people will be exposed togreater variability in and uncertainties about food system performance, and their livelihoodsources will become more vulnerable.Food system vulnerability: Overview: A food system is vulnerable when one or more of thefour components of food security – food availability, food accessibility, food utilization andfood system stability is uncertain and insecure. Food availability is determined by the physical quantities of food that are produced,stored, processed, distributed and exchanged. FAO calculates national food balance sheetsthat include all these elements. Food availability is the net amount remaining after production,stocks and imports have been summed and exports deducted for each item included in thefood balance sheet. Adequacy is assessed through comparison of availability with theestimated consumption requirement for each food item. This approach takes into account the importance of international trade and domesticproduction in assuring that a country’s food supply is sufficient. The same approach can alsobe used to determine the adequacy of a household’s food supply, with domestic marketsplaying the balancing role. High market prices for food are usually a reflection of inadequate availability; persistentlyhigh prices force poor people to reduce consumption below the minimum required for ahealthy and active life, and may lead to food riots and social unrest. Growing scarcities ofwater, land and fuel are likely to put increasing pressure on food prices, even without climatechange. Where these scarcities are compounded by the results of climate change, theintroduction of mitigation practices that create land-use competition and the attribution ofmarket value to environmental services to mitigate climate change, they have the potential tocause significant changes in relative prices for different food items, and an overall increase inthe cost of an average food basket for the consumer, with accompanying increases in pricevolatility. Food accessibility is a measure of the ability to secure entitlements, which are defined asthe set of resources (including legal, political, economic and social) that an individual requiresto obtain access to food (A. Sen, 1989, cited in FAO, 2003a). Until the 1970s, food securitywas linked mainly to national food production and global trade (Devereux and Maxwell,2001), but since then the concept has expanded to include households’ and individuals’ accessto food. The mere presence of an adequate supply does not ensure that a person can obtain andconsume food – that person must first have access to the food through his/her entitlements.The enjoyment of entitlements that determine people’s access to food depends on allocationmechanisms, affordability, and cultural and personal preferences for particular food products.20

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Defining terms and conceptualizing relationshipsIncreased risk exposure resulting from climate change will reduce people’s access toentitlements and undermine their food security. Food utilization refers to the use of food and how a person is able to secure essentialnutrients from the food consumed. It encompasses the nutritional value of the diet, includingits composition and methods of preparation; the social values of foods, which dictate whatkinds of food should be served and eaten at different times of the year and on differentoccasions; and the quality and safety of the food supply, which can cause loss of nutrients inthe food and the spread of food-borne diseases if not of a sufficient standard. Climaticconditions are likely to bring both negative and positive changes in dietary patterns and newchallenges for food safety, which may affect nutritional status in various ways. Food system stability is determined by the temporal availability of, and access to, food. Inlong-distance food chains, storage, processing, distribution and marketing processes containin-built mechanisms that have protected the global food system from instability in recenttimes. However, if projected increases in weather variability materialize, they are likely tolead to increases in the frequency and magnitude of food emergencies for which neither theglobal food system nor affected local food systems are adequately prepared.Potential impacts of climate change on food availability: Production of food and otheragricultural commodities may keep pace with aggregate demand, but there are likely to besignificant changes in local cropping patterns and farming practices. There has been a lot ofresearch on the impacts that climate change might have on agricultural production, particularlycultivated crops. Some 50 percent of total crop production comes from forest and mountainecosystems, including all tree crops, while crops cultivated on open, arable flat land account foronly 13 percent of annual global crop production. Production from both rainfed and irrigatedagriculture in dryland ecosystems accounts for approximately 25 percent, and rice produced incoastal ecosystems for about 12 percent (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005). The evaluation of climate change impacts on agricultural production, food supply andagriculture-based livelihoods must take into account the characteristics of the agro-ecosystemwhere particular climate-induced changes in biochemical processes are occurring, in order todetermine the extent to which such changes will be positive, negative or neutral in their effects. The so-called “greenhouse fertilization effect” will produce local beneficial effects wherehigher levels of atmospheric CO2 stimulate plant growth. This is expected to occur primarily intemperate zones, with yields expected to increase by 10 to 25 percent for crops with a lower rateof photosynthetic efficiency (C3 crops), and by 0 to 10 percent for those with a higher rate ofphotosynthetic efficiency (C4 crops), assuming that CO2 levels in the atmosphere reach 550 partsper million (IPCC, 2007c); these effects are not likely to influence projections of world foodsupply, however (Tubiello et al., 2007). Mature forests are also not expected to be affected,although the growth of young tree stands will be enhanced (Norby et al., 2005). The impacts of mean temperature increase will be experienced differently, depending onlocation (Leff, Ramankutty and Foley, 2004). For example, moderate warming (increases of 1to 3 ºC in mean temperature) is expected to benefit crop and pasture yields in temperateregions, while in tropical and seasonally dry regions, it is likely to have negative impacts,particularly for cereal crops. Warming of more than 3 ºC is expected to have negative affectson production in all regions (IPCC, 2007c). The supply of meat and other livestock productswill be influenced by crop production trends, as feed crops account for roughly 25 percent ofthe world’s cropland. For climate variables such as rainfall, soil moisture, temperature and radiation, crops havethresholds beyond which growth and yield are compromised (Porter and Semenov, 2005). Forexample, cereals and fruit tree yields can be damaged by a few days of temperatures above orbelow a certain threshold (Wheeler et al., 2000). In the European heat wave of 2003, whentemperatures were 6 ºC above long-term means, crop yields dropped significantly, such as by36 percent for maize in Italy, and by 25 percent for fruit and 30 percent for forage in France(IPCC, 2007c). Increased intensity and frequency of storms, altered hydrological cycles, andprecipitation variance also have long-term implications on the viability of current world agro-ecosystems and future food availability. 21

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Climate change and food security: a framework document Wild foods are particularly important to households that struggle to produce food or securean income. A change in the geographic distribution of wild foods resulting from changingrainfall and temperatures could therefore have an impact on the availability of food. Changesin climatic conditions have led to significant declines in the provision of wild foods by avariety of ecosystems, and further impacts can be expected as the world climate continues tochange. For the 5 000 plant species examined in a sub-Saharan African study (Levin andPershing, 2005), it is predicted that 81 to 97 percent of the suitable habitats will decrease insize or shift owing to climate change. By 2085, between 25 and 42 percent of the species’habitats are expected to be lost altogether. The implications of these changes are expected tobe particularly great among communities that use the plants as food or medicine. Constraints on water availability are a growing concern, which climate change willexacerbate. Conflicts over water resources will have implications for both food productionand people’s access to food in conflict zones (Gleick, 1993). Prolonged and repeated droughtscan cause loss of productive assets, which undermines the sustainability of livelihood systemsbased on rainfed agriculture. For example, drought and deforestation can increase fire danger,with consequent loss of the vegetative cover needed for grazing and fuelwood (Laurence andWilliamson, 2001). In Africa, droughts can have severe impacts on livestock. Table 2illustrates how droughts increased livestock mortality in selected African countries between1980 and 1999. Storage, processing and distribution: Food production varies spatially, so food needs to bedistributed between regions. The major agricultural production regions are characterized byrelatively stable climatic conditions, but many food-insecure regions have highly variableclimates. The main grain production regions have a largely continental climate, with dry or atleast cold weather conditions during harvest time, which allows the bulk handling ofharvested grain without special infrastructure for protection or immediate treatment.TABLE 2Impacts of droughts on livestock numbers in selected African countries, 1981 to1999 Date Location Livestock losses Source19811984 Botswana 20 percent of national FAO, 1984 cited in Toulmin, herd 198619821984 Niger 62 percent of national Toulmin, 1986 cattle herd19831984 Ethiopia (Borana 4590 percent of calves, Coppock, 1994 Plateau) 45 percent of cows, 22 percent of mature males1991 Northern Kenya 28 percent of cattle; 18 Surtech, 1993 cited in percent of sheep and Barton and Morton, 2001 goats19911993 Ethiopia (Borana) 42 percent of cattle Desta and Coppock, 20021993 Namibia 22 percent of cattle; 41 Devereux and Tapscott, percent of goats and 1995 sheep19951997 Greater Horn of Africa 20 percent of cattle; 20 Ndikumana et al., 2000 (average of 9 pastoral percent of sheep and areas) goats19951997 Southern Ethiopia 46 percent of cattle; 41 Ndikumana et al., 2000 percent of sheep and goats19981999 Ethiopia (Borana) 62 percent of cattle Shibru, 2001 cited in Desta and Coppock, 2002Source: IPCC, 2007a.22

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Defining terms and conceptualizing relationships Depending on the prevailing temperature regime, however, a change in climatic conditionsthrough increased temperatures or unstable, moist weather conditions could result in grainbeing harvested with more than the 12 to 14 percent moisture required for stable storage.Because of the amounts of grain and general lack of drying facilities in these regions, thiscould create hazards for food safety, or even cause complete crop losses, resulting fromcontamination with microorganisms and their metabolic products. It could lead to a rise infood prices if stockists have to invest in new storage technologies to avoid the problem. Distribution depends on the reliability of import capacity, the presence of food stocks and– when necessary – access to food aid (Maxwell and Slater, 2003). These factors in turn oftendepend on the ability to store food. Storage is affected by strategies at the national level andby physical infrastructure at the local level. Transport infrastructure limits food distribution inmany developing countries. Where infrastructure is affected by climate, through either heatstress on roads or increased frequency of flood events that destroy infrastructure, there areimpacts on food distribution, influencing people’s access to markets to sell or purchase food(Abdulai and CroleRees, 2001). Exchange of food takes place at all levels – individual, household, community, regional,national and global. At the lowest levels, exchanges usually take the form of reciprocalhospitality, gift-giving or barter, and serve as an important mechanism for coping with supplyfluctuations. If changing climatic conditions bring about trend declines in local production,the capacity of affected households to engage in these traditional forms of exchange is likelyto decline. Trade remains the main mechanism for exchange in today’s global economy. Althoughmost food trade takes place within national borders, global trade is the balancing mechanismthat keeps exchange flowing smoothly (Stevens, Devereux and Kennan, 2003). The relativelylow cost of ocean compared with overland transport makes it economically advantageous formost countries to rely on international food trade to smooth out fluctuations in domestic foodsupply. Where trade is heavily regulated, as in southern Africa, farmers’ behaviour illustratesthis principle. After a food crisis such as that in southern Africa in 2002, even if recoveryprogrammes lead to a bumper harvest of maize, in some countries the maize may not find itsway into national grain markets, as announced or anticipated producer prices and marketregulations could encourage farmers to channel their surplus outside formal markets (Mano,Isaacson and Dardel, 2003: iv). FAO projects that the impact of climate change on global crop production will be slight upto 2030. After that year, however, widespread declines in the extent and potential productivityof cropland could occur, with some of the severest impacts likely to be felt in the currentlyfood-insecure areas of sub-Saharan Africa, which have with the least ability to adapt toclimate change or to compensate through greater food imports (Fischer et al., 2001, cited inFAO, 2003b: 358). Although the projections suggest that normal carryover stocks, food aid and internationaltrade should be able to cope with the localized food shortages that are likely to result fromcrop losses due to severe droughts or floods, this is now being questioned in view of the priceboom that the world has experienced since 2006. According to FAO, the global food priceindex rose by 9 percent in 2006 and by 37 percent in 2007. The price boom has beenaccompanied by much higher price volatility than in the past, especially in the cereals andoilseeds sectors, reflecting reduced inventories, strong relationships between agriculturalcommodity and other markets, and the prevalence of greater market uncertainty in general. This has triggered a widespread concern about food price inflation, which is fuellingdebates about the future direction of agricultural commodity prices in importing and exportingcountries, be they rich or poor, and giving rise to fears that a world food crisis similar inmagnitude to those of the early 1970s and 1980s may be imminent, with little prospect for aquick rebound as the effects of climate change take their toll.Potential impacts of climate change on food access: Allocation: Food is allocated throughmarkets and non-market distribution mechanisms. Factors that determine whether people willhave access to sufficient food through markets are considered in the following section on 23

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Climate change and food security: a framework documentaffordability. These factors include income-generating capacity, amount of remunerationreceived for products and goods sold or labour and services rendered, and the ratio of the costof a minimum daily food basket to the average daily income. Non-market mechanisms include production for own consumption, food preparation andallocation practices within the household, and public or charitable food distribution schemes.For rural people who produce a substantial part of their own food, climate change impacts onfood production may reduce availability to the point that allocation choices have to be madewithin the household. A family might reduce the daily amount of food consumed equallyamong all household members, or allocate food preferentially to certain members, often theable-bodied male adults, who are assumed to need it the most to stay fit and continue workingto maintain the family. Non-farming low-income rural and urban households whose incomes fall below thepoverty line because of climate change impacts will face similar choices. Urbanization isincreasing rapidly worldwide, and a growing proportion of the expanding urban population ispoor (Ruel et al., 1998). Allocation issues resulting from climate change are therefore likelyto become more and more significant in urban areas over time. Where urban gardens are available, they provide horticultural produce for home use andlocal sale, but urban land-use restrictions and the rising cost of water and land restrain theirpotential for expansion. Urban agriculture has a limited ability to contribute to the welfare ofpoor people in developing countries because the bulk of their staple food requirements stillneed to be transported from rural areas (Ellis and Sumberg, 1998). Political and social power relationships are key factors influencing allocation decisions intimes of scarcity. If agricultural production declines and households find alternativelivelihood activities, social processes and reciprocal relations in which locally produced foodis given to other family members in exchange for their support may change or disappearaltogether. Public and charitable food distribution schemes reallocate food to the most needy, but aresubject to public perceptions about who needs help, and social values about what kind of helpit is incumbent on more wealthy segments of society to provide. If climate change createsother more urgent claims on public resources, support for food distribution schemes maydecline, with consequent increases in the incidence of food insecurity, hunger and famine-related deaths. Affordability. In many countries, the ratio of the cost of a minimum daily food basket tothe average daily income is used as a measure of poverty (World Bank PovertyNet, 2008).When this ratio falls below a certain threshold, it signifies that food is affordable and peopleare not impoverished; when it exceeds the established threshold, food is not affordable andpeople are having difficulty obtaining enough to eat. This criterion is an indicator of chronicpoverty, and can also be used to determine when people have fallen into temporary foodinsecurity, owing to reduced food supply and increased prices, to a sudden fall in householdincome or to both. Income-generating capacity and the remuneration received for products and goods sold orlabour and services rendered are the primary determinants of average daily income. Theincomes of all farming households depend on what they obtain from selling some or all oftheir crops and animals each year. Commercial farmers are usually protected by insurance,but small-scale farmers in developing countries are not, and their incomes can decline sharplyif there is a market glut, or if their own crops fail and they have nothing to sell when pricesare high. Most food is not produced by individual households but acquired through buying, tradingand borrowing (Du Toit and Ziervogel, 2004). Climate impacts on income-earningopportunities can affect the ability to buy food, and a change in climate or climate extremesmay affect the availability of certain food products, which may influence their price. Highprices may make certain foods unaffordable and can have an impact on individuals’ nutritionand health. Changes in the demand for seasonal agricultural labour, caused by changes in productionpractices in response to climate change, can affect income-generating capacity positively or24

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Defining terms and conceptualizing relationshipsnegatively. Mechanization may decrease the need for seasonal labour in many places, andlabour demands are often reduced when crops fail, mostly owing to such factors as drought,flood, frost or pest outbreaks, which can be influenced by climate. On the other hand, someadaptation options increase the demand for seasonal agricultural labour. Local food prices in most parts of the world are strongly influenced by global marketconditions, but there may be short-term fluctuations linked to variation in national yields,which are influenced by climate, among other factors. An increase in food prices has a realincome effect, with low-income households often suffering most, as they tend to devote largershares of their incomes to food than higher-income households do (Thomsen and Metz,1998). When they cannot afford food, households adjust by eating less of their preferred foods orreducing total quantities consumed as food prices increase. Given the growing number ofpeople who depend on the market for their food supply, food prices are critical to consumers’food security and must be watched. Food often travels very long distances (Pretty et al., 2005), and this has implications forcosts. Increasing fuel costs could lead to more expensive food and increased food insecurity.The growing market for biofuels is expected to have implications for food security, becausecrops grown as feedstock for liquid biofuels can replace food crops, which then have to besourced elsewhere, at higher cost. Preference: Food preferences determine the kinds of food households will attempt toobtain. Changing climatic conditions may affect both the physical and the economicavailability of certain preferred food items, which might make it impossible to meet somepreferences. Changes in availability and relative prices for major food items may result inpeople either changing their food basket, or spending a greater percentage of their income onfood when prices of preferred food items increase. In southern Africa, for example, many households eat maize as the staple crop, but whenthere is less rainfall, sorghum fares better, and people could consume more of it. Many peopleprefer maize to sorghum, however, so continue to plant maize despite poor yields, and wouldrather buy maize than eat sorghum, when necessary. The extent to which food preferences change in response to changes in the relative pricesof grain-fed beef compared with other sources of animal protein will be an importantdeterminant of food security in the medium term. Increased prices for grain-fed beef areforeseeable, because of the increasing competition for land for intensive feedgrain production,the increasing scarcity of water and rising fuel costs (FAO, 2007c). If preferences shift toother sources of animal protein, the livestock sector’s demands on resources that are likely tobe under stress as a consequence of climate change may be contained. If not, continuedgrowth in demand for grain-fed beef, from wealthier segments of the world’s population,could trigger across-the-board increases in food prices, which would have serious adverseimpacts on food security for urban and rural poor.Potential impacts of climate change on food utilization: Nutritional value: Food insecurity isusually associated with malnutrition, because the diets of people who are unable to satisfy allof their food needs usually contain a high proportion of staple foods and lack the varietyneeded to satisfy nutritional requirements. Declines in the availability of wild foods, andlimits on small-scale horticultural production due to scarcity of water or labour resulting fromclimate change could affect nutritional status adversely. In general, however, the main impactof climate change on nutrition is likely to be felt indirectly, through its effects on income andcapacity to purchase a diversity of foods. The physiological utilization of foods consumed also affects nutritional status, and this –in turn – is affected by illness. Climate change will cause new patterns of pests and diseases toemerge, affecting plants, animals and humans, and posing new risks for food security, foodsafety and human health. Increased incidence of water-borne diseases in flood-prone areas,changes in vectors for climate-responsive pests and diseases, and emergence of new diseasescould affect both the food chain and people’s physiological capacity to obtain necessarynutrients from the foods consumed. Vector changes are a virtual certainty for pests and 25

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Climate change and food security: a framework documentdiseases that flourish only at specific temperatures and under specific humidity and irrigationmanagement regimes. These will expose crops, livestock, fish and humans to new risks towhich they have not yet adapted. They will also place new pressures on care givers within thehome, who are often women, and will challenge health care institutions to respond to newparameters. Malaria in particular is expected to change its distribution as a result of climate change(IPCC, 2007a). In coastal areas, more people may be exposed to vector- and water-bornediseases through flooding linked to sea-level rise. Health risks can also be linked to changesin diseases from either increased or decreased precipitation, lowering people’s capacity toutilize food effectively and often resulting in the need for improved nutritional intake (IPCC,2007a). Where vector changes for pests and diseases can be predicted, varieties and breeds that areresistant to the likely new arrivals can be introduced as an adaptive measure. A recent upsurgein the appearance of new viruses may also be climate-related, although this link is not certain.Viruses such as avian flu, ebola, HIV/AIDS and SARS have various implications for foodsecurity, including risk to the livelihoods of small-scale poultry operations in the case of avianflu, and the extra nutritional requirements of affected people in the case of HIV-AIDS. The social and cultural values of foods consumed will also be affected by the availabilityand affordability of food. The social values of foods are important determinants of foodpreferences, with foods that are accorded high value being preferred, and those accorded lowvalue being avoided. In many traditional cultures, feasts involving the preparation of specificfoods mark important seasonal occasions, rites of passage and celebratory events. The increased cost or absolute unavailability of these foods could force cultures toabandon their traditional practices, with unforeseeable secondary impacts on the cohesivenessand sustainability of the cultures themselves. In many cultures, the reciprocal giving of giftsor sharing of food is common. It is often regarded as a social obligation to feed guests, evenwhen they have dropped in unexpectedly. In conditions of chronic food scarcity, households’ability to honour these obligations is breaking down, and this trend is likely to be reinforcedin locations where the impacts of climate change contribute to increasing incidence of foodshortages. Food safety may be compromised in various ways. Increasing temperature may cause foodquality to deteriorate, unless there is increased investment in cooling and refrigerationequipment or more reliance on rapid processing of perishable foods to extend their shelf-life.Decreased water availability has implications for food processing and preparation practices,particularly in the subtropics, where a switch to dry processing and cooking methods may berequired. Changes in land use, driven by changes in precipitation or increased temperatures,will alter how people spend their time. In some areas, children might have to prepare food,while parents work in the field, increasing the risk that good hygiene practices may not befollowed.Potential impacts of climate change on food system stability: Stability of supply: Many cropshave annual cycles, and yields fluctuate with climate variability, particularly rainfall andtemperature. Maintaining the continuity of food supply when production is seasonal istherefore challenging. Droughts and floods are a particular threat to food stability and couldbring about both chronic and transitory food insecurity. Both are expected to become morefrequent, more intense and less predictable as a consequence of climate change. In rural areasthat depend on rainfed agriculture for an important part of their local food supply, changes inthe amount and timing of rainfall within the season and an increase in weather variability arelikely to aggravate the precariousness of local food systems. Stability of access: As already noted, the affordability of food is determined by therelationship between household income and the cost of a typical food basket. Global foodmarkets may exhibit greater price volatility, jeopardizing the stability of returns to farmersand the access to purchased food of both farming and non-farming poor people. Food emergencies: Increasing instability of supply, attributable to the consequences ofclimate change, will most likely lead to increases in the frequency and magnitude of food26

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Defining terms and conceptualizing relationshipsemergencies with which the global food system is ill-equipped to cope. An increase in humanconflict, caused in part by migration and resource competition attributable to changingclimatic conditions, would also be destabilizing for food systems at all levels. Climate changemight exacerbate conflict in numerous ways, although links between climate change andconflict should be presented with care. Increasing incidence of drought may force people tomigrate from one area to another, giving rise to conflict over access to resources in thereceiving area. Resource scarcity can also trigger conflict and could be driven by globalenvironmental change. Grain reserves are used in emergency-prone areas to compensate for crop losses andsupport food relief programmes for displaced people and refugees. Higher temperatures andhumidity associated with climate change may require increased expenditure to preserve storedgrain, which will limit countries’ ability to maintain reserves of sufficient size to respondadequately to large-scale natural or human-incurred disasters.Livelihood vulnerabilityThe livelihoods perspective is often used as a means of investigating a range of sectors andhow they affect individual livelihoods. Viewing food security from a livelihoods perspectivemakes it possible to assess the different components of food security holistically at thehousehold level. Livelihoods can be defined as the bundle of different types of assets, abilities and activitiesthat enable a person or household to survive (FAO, 2003a). These assets include physicalassets such as infrastructure and household items; financial assets such as stocks of money,savings and pensions; natural assets such as natural resources; social assets, which are basedon the cohesiveness of people and societies; and human assets, which depend on the status ofindividuals and can involve education and skill. These assets change over time and aredifferent for different households and communities. The amounts of these assets that ahousehold or community possesses or can easily gain access to are key determinants ofsustainability and resilience. Marginal groups include those with few resources and little access to power, which canconstrain people’s capacity to adapt to climate changes that could have a negative impact onthem. It is usually people’s few productive assets that are at greatest risk from the impacts ofclimate change. Physical assets can be damaged or destroyed, financial losses can be incurred,natural assets can be degraded and social assets can be undermined. The change in seasonality attributed to climate change can lead to certain food productsbecoming more scarce at certain times of year. Such seasonal variations in food supply, alongwith vulnerabilities to flooding and fire, can make livelihoods more vulnerable at certaintimes of the year. Although these impacts might appear indirect, they are important becausemany marginal livelihood groups are close to the poverty margin, and food is a keycomponent of their existence. Agriculture is often at the heart of the livelihood strategies of these marginal groups;agricultural employment, whether farming their own land or working on that of others, is keyto their survival. In many areas, the challenges of rural livelihoods drive urban migration. Asthe number of poor and vulnerable people living in urban slums grows, the availability ofnon-farm employment opportunities and the access of urban dwellers to adequate food fromthe market will become increasingly important drivers of food security. A recent International Labour Organization study (ILO, 2005) suggests that there will besignificant differences between middle- and low-income countries in the ways in whichclimate change affects agriculture-based livelihoods. Table 3 shows regional differences inthe share of agriculture in total employment and changes in these shares over the past decade.In middle-income countries, a commercialization process appears to be bringing aboutdeclines in unpaid on-farm family labour and increases in wage employment. 27

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Climate change and food security: a framework documentTABLE 3Employment in agriculture as share of total employment, by region Region 1996 2006Developed economies and EU 6.2 4.2Central and southeastern Europe (non-EU) and CIS 27.2 20.3East Asia 48.5 40.9Southeast Asia and the Pacific 51.0 45.4South Asia 59.7 49.4Latin America and the Caribbean 23.1 19.6North Africa 36.5 34.0Sub-Saharan Africa 74.4 65.9Middle East 21.2 18.1World 41.9 36.1EU = European Union.CIS = Commonwealth of Independent States.Source: ILO, 2007. In low-income countries, however, wage work is declining, while self-cultivation andmixed contractual forms increase. This means that while the adverse impacts of climatechange on agricultural production in middle-income countries are more likely to be felt as lossof employment opportunities, reduction in wage earnings and loss of purchasing power foragricultural wage workers, in low-income countries they are likely to be felt as declines inown production for household consumption by smallholder farming households. Livelihood groups that warrant special attention in the context of climate change include:3x low-income groups in drought- and flood-prone areas with poor food distribution infrastructure and limited access to emergency response;x low- to middle-income groups in flood-prone areas that may lose homes, stored food, personal possessions and means of obtaining their livelihood, particularly when water rises very quickly and with great force, as in sea surges or flash floods;x farmers whose land becomes submerged or damaged by sea-level rise or saltwater intrusions;x producers of crops that may not be sustainable under changing temperature and rainfall regimes;x producers of crops at risk from high winds;x poor livestock keepers in drylands where changes in rainfall patterns will affect forage availability and quality;x managers of forest ecosystems that provide forest products and environmental services;x fishers whose infrastructure for fishing activities, such as port and landing facilities, storage facilities, fish ponds and processing areas, becomes submerged or damaged by sea-level rise, flooding or extreme weather events;x fishing communities that depend heavily on coral reefs for food and protection from natural disasters;x fishers/aquafarmers who suffer diminishing catches from shifts in fish distribution and the productivity of aquatic ecosystems, caused by changes in ocean currents or increased discharge of freshwater into oceans. Within these livelihood groups, producers at different points of the food chain, such asfishers versus fish cleaners, would have different vulnerabilities and access to coping3 This expanded list has been developed from a shorter list contained in FAO, 2003b: 368.28

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Defining terms and conceptualizing relationshipsmechanisms. Producers of different types of crops, such as crops for sale versus those forhome consumption, may face different risks and management options (e.g., access toirrigation water or seeds). Gender and age differences will also affect the degree of risk facedby individuals within a vulnerable group. Agriculture-based livelihood systems that are already vulnerable to climate change faceimmediate risk of increased crop failure, loss of livestock and fish stocks, increasing water scarcitiesand destruction of productive assets. These systems include small-scale rainfed farming, pastoralism,inland and coastal fishing/aquaculture communities, and forest-based systems. Rural peopleinhabiting coasts, floodplains, mountains, drylands and the Arctic are most at risk. The urban poor,particularly in coastal cities and floodplain settlements, also face increasing risks. Among those atrisk, pre-existing socio-economic discriminations are likely to be aggravated, causing nutritionalstatus to deteriorate among women, young children and elderly, ill and disabled people. Over time, the geographic distribution of risk and vulnerability is likely to shift. Futurevulnerability is likely to affect not only farmers, fishers, herders and forest-dependent people, butalso low-income city dwellers, in both developed and developing countries, whose sources oflivelihood and access to food may be at risk from the impact of extreme weather events andvariable food prices, and who lack adequate insurance coverage. Some agriculture-basedlivelihoods may benefit from the effects of climate change, while others will be undermined. The livelihood status of agricultural workers will also change if centres of agriculturalproduction shift or methods of production become less labour-intensive in response to climatechange. All wage earners face new health risks that could cause declines in their productivityand earning power. Climate change will also affect people differently depending on suchfactors as landownership, asset holdings, marketable skills, gender, age and health status. Fishing is frequently integral to mixed livelihood strategies, in which people takeadvantage of seasonal stock availability or resort to fishing when other forms of foodproduction and income generation fall short. Fishing is often related to extreme poverty andmay serve as a vital safety net for people with limited livelihood alternatives and extremevulnerability to changes in their environment. However, the viability of fishing as asustainable livelihood is threatened by climate change. Fishing communities that depend on inland fishery resources are likely to be particularlyvulnerable to climate change; access to water resources and arrangements with other sectorsfor sharing and reuse will become a key to future sustainability. Climate change is also likelyto have substantial and far-reaching impacts on coastal fisheries and fishing communities.Major physical impacts of climate change on the marine system will be changes in oceancurrents, a rise in average temperature, sharpening of gradient structures, and large and rapidincreases of freshwater discharge; these often trigger an increase in chemical nutrients,typically compounds containing nitrogen or phosphorus, resulting in lack of oxygen andsevere reductions in water quality and in fish and other animal populations (eutrophication). Biological responses to these changes are expected to be rachet-like, i.e., once a thresholdis reached, the situation shifts from one phase to another. Fishing is essentially a huntingactivity, so its success or failure depends heavily on the vagaries of nature. Climate change iscreating more anomalies, both failures and bonanzas, among multiple species, as well asdrastic shifts in the areas where small, migrating fish are found. Coastal peoples andcommunities that depend on fishing in locations where a rise in sea level makes relocationinevitable will require extra support, as they must not only migrate, but in many instances alsofind new, unfamiliar ways of earning a living (FAO, 2007b). All IPCC emission scenarios assume that economies for the world as a whole will continueto grow, albeit at different rates and sometimes with significant regional differences,depending on the scenario (IPCC, 2000). However, it is also possible that the impact ofclimate change will actually curtail economic growth. If global financial markets are not able to keep pace with continued high losses from extremeweather events, and large numbers of individual households in developed and emergingdeveloping countries experience uncompensated declines in the value of their personal assets andincome-generating capacity, global economic recession and a deterioration in the food securitysituation at all levels is also a possibility, putting everybody at risk. 29

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Protecting food security through adaptation to climate change2. PROTECTING FOOD SECURITYTHROUGH ADAPTATION TOCLIMATE CHANGEFAO’S STRATEGIC APPROACHIPCC defines adaptation as “Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual orexpected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficialopportunities” (IPCC Online, 2001). It involves learning to manage new risks andstrengthening resilience in the face of change. Risk management focuses on preparing to dealwith shocks. Change management focuses on modifying behaviours over the medium-to-longterm to avoid disruptions or declines in global and local food supplies due to changes intemperature and precipitation regimes, and to protect ecosystems through providingenvironmental services. The following practices for adapting to climate change in the foodand agriculture sector are described in this chapter:x Protecting local food supplies, assets and livelihoods against the effects of increasing weather variability and increased frequency and intensity of extreme events, through: general risk management; management of risks specific to different ecosystems – marine, coastal, inland water and floodplain, forest, dryland, island, mountain, polar, cultivated; research and dissemination of crop varieties and breeds adapted to changing climatic conditions; introducing tree crops to provide food, fodder and energy and enhance cash incomes.x Avoiding disruptions or declines in global and local food supplies due to changes in temperature and precipitation regimes, through: more efficient agricultural water management in general; more efficient management of irrigation water on rice paddies; improved management of cultivated land; improved livestock management; use of new, more energy-efficient technologies by agro-industries.x Protecting ecosystems, through provision of such environmental services as: use of degraded or marginal lands for productive planted forests or other cellulose biomass for alternative fuels; Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) carbon sink tree plantings; watershed protection; prevention of land degradation; protection of coastal areas from cyclones and other coastal hazards; preservation of mangroves and their contribution to coastal fisheries; biodiversity conservation. 31

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Climate change and food security: a framework document Figures 6 and 7 set out the steps recommended by FAO for selecting adaptation optionsand designing strategies to operationalize them. FAO has defined the following elements in aframework for climate change adaptation (FAO, 2007a): legal and institutional elements; policy and planning elements; livelihood elements; cropping, livestock, forestry, fisheries and integrated farming system elements; ecosystem elements; linking climate change adaptation processes with technologies that promote carbon sequestration and substitutes for fossil fuels.Figure 6. Steps for selecting adaptation options Livelihood adaptation options for climate variability and change Designing adaptation options Collate local, introduced and improved adaptation options Develop viable adaptation options Synthesize into potentially suitable adaptation options for location specific conditions Scientific validation of adaptation options Local prioritization/selection of adaptation options for field testing Source: FAO, 2006a. FAO stresses the importance of addressing impacts and responses across sectors and scalesand of establishing institutional mechanisms for upscaling adaptation measures. Figure 8illustrates the range of tools available for obtaining information about current and futureclimate impacts at different scales – from climate forecasts for farm-level decision-making toimpact assessments based on climate change scenarios. Figure 9 shows how these tools can beused to inform multistakeholder coordination processes that seek to mainstream climatechange adaptation into sustainable development approaches.LIVING WITH UNCERTAINTY AND MANAGING NEWRISKSAdapting to climate change involves managing risk by improving the quality of informationand its use, providing insurance against climate change risk, adopting known good practicesto strengthen the resilience of vulnerable livelihood systems, and finding new institutional andtechnological solutions. People in the insurance business make a clear distinction between certain and uncertainrisks: a risk is certain if the probabilities of specific states occurring in the future are preciselyknown, and uncertain if these probabilities are not precisely known (Kunreuther and Michel-Kerjan, 2006).32

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Climate change and food security: a framework document In the field of climate change, there is still much uncertainty about the probabilities ofvarious possible changes occurring in specific locations. This can be dealt with by investingin improved information to reduce the degree of local uncertainty, or by spreading theuncertain risk through some form of global insurance scheme. Knowledge about the future will always be uncertain, but the current high degree ofuncertainty about potential local impacts of climate change could be reduced throughimproving the science. Other priorities include recognizing the need for decision-making inthe face of uncertainty, bridging the gap between scientific and traditional perceptions ofclimate change, and promoting the adoption of practices that are consistent with theprecautionary approach and adaptive management principles and that will strengthen theresilience and sustainability of vulnerable livelihood systems. Climate-related risks affect everybody in one way or another, so innovative insuranceschemes such as a global reinsurance fund for climate change damage, or expanded localcoverage of weather-based insurance are likely to be needed. No risk management policy orprogramme will work unless those at risk feel that it addresses their needs, so adequateprovisions must be made to allow the most vulnerable to participate in deciding which actionsto take to strengthen their resilience. The state of the art for these approaches and the implications of each for protecting foodsecurity in the face of climate change are explored in the following sections.Improving the quality of information and its useInformation is a crucial tool in decision-making, particularly in the context of climate changewhere there is high uncertainty. The type of information, its source(s), to whom it is targeted,and how it is to be used are important elements in determining the impact and response thatinformation may generate. Good information about uncertainties and risks can make thedifference between resilience and collapse for an affected livelihood system or ecosystem, asin the case of climate change. The rest of this section explores vulnerable people’s needs for information about climatechange, how best to satisfy these, the current state of the art regarding weather and climatemonitoring, and priorities for improving scientific understanding of climate change.Reaching vulnerable rural people with useful information: Information generation anddissemination are political in that they involve the power of one person’s perception toinfluence that of another. This is illustrated by Turton’s (2001) example of how hidden valuejudgements underlie the dominant perception of climate change. He points out that theconcept of climate changes is commonly understood to mean not only that a change isoccurring but also that there is need for some sort of response.34

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Climate change and food security: a framework document This perception is not universally shared, however. Although it has been scientificallydemonstrated that climate is changing worldwide, not everyone has the same understandingof, or places the same value on, the significance of scientific results. For example, the climatedata made available to rural farmers often do not refer to local knowledge on climate andagriculture, which leads to resentment towards scientific data, or the abandonment ofinformation that may have been useful. Despite the increasing variability in climaticconditions, many rural farmers still predict climate using traditional methods, which may notbe capable of detecting longer-term trends. One implication of increasing variability and uncertainly about future weather patterns isthat traditional knowledge will not necessarily be adapted to the new climatic conditions.There will therefore need to be more reliance on scientific knowledge and assessment ofviable options, and bridging the gap between scientific and traditional perceptions of climatechange will be fundamental for successful adaptation. Ethnographic research suggests that the current mismatch between the understanding andinterpretations of climate by farmers who rely on traditional knowledge and the understandingand interpretations of the scientific research community constitutes an important challenge forclimate adaptation work that aims to provide climate information for a range of decision-makers, with differing education and resource levels (Roncoli, 2006). Participatoryapproaches to climate predictions have become a popular way of eliciting farmers’understanding of climate and climate information and determining how to improve therelation between these perspectives and scientific forecasts. Roncoli argues that participatorytechnology development and collaborative learning would be promoted by a betterunderstanding of how scientists’ cultural models may (or may not) be affected by interactionwith farmers and other stakeholders, including other scientists, funding agencies, policy-makers and the media (Roncoli, 2006). The benefits of applying gender-sensitive participatory approaches for using informationto avert loss of property and life during cyclones are illustrated in Box 1 with the case ofBangladesh. Another important issue is the availability of climate data for rural farmers who are ofteninaccessible to field site educators. When information is available and farmers show interestin it, institutional structures need to be in place to disseminate the information to farmers inremote rural areas, otherwise the only farmers to benefit will be those who already have theadvantages of being in cooperatives and having the necessary disposable resources to actaccording to the information. Successful adaptation to climate change depends on reachingthe most vulnerable, who may not have easy access to and appropriate understanding ofexisting climate information.Box 1. Benefits of women’s participation in cyclone preparedness in BangladeshAn International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC-RCS) case studyillustrates the importance of gender-sensitive participation in decision-making about cyclonepreparedness. This study of a community-based cyclone preparedness programme in Bangladesh foundthat the highest proportions of cyclone victims came from sites where women were not involved in thevillage-level disaster preparedness committees responsible for maintaining cyclone shelters andtransmitting warnings. In Cox’s Bazaar in east Bangladesh, women are fully involved in disasterpreparedness and support activities (education, reproductive health, self-help groups, and small andmedium-sized enterprises), and there have been enormous reductions in the numbers of women killedor affected by cyclones.Source: IFRC-RCS, 2002, cited in Lambrou and Laub, 2004.36

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Protecting food security through adaptation to climate changeMonitoring weather and improving scientiﬁc understanding of climate change: Scientificwork in response to the challenge of climate change includes development of tools andtechnologies for improved monitoring of weather and climate, incorporation of climatechange variables and assessments into food security information and early warning systems,and observation and modelling of climate impacts on rural livelihoods. As already noted, it iscritical that information generated by early warning systems and climate change models bepackaged in ways that are accessible to vulnerable people, so it can assist them in makingsound choices about how to adapt to climate change and other stressors. All actors in the foodsystem need access to reliable information about climate change and its potential impacts, toavoid breakdowns in the system and adverse food security outcomes. Figure 10 depicts FAO’s view of the short-, medium- and long-term functions of a FoodSecurity Information and Early Warning System (FSIEWS) that covers the information needsof all components of the food system and addresses all aspects of food security. Typically,these systems have focused on monitoring current weather and using this information,together with other socio-economic data, to forecast the adequacy of food supplies and assessfood aid needs in developing countries with high risk of drought. Time series data generated by FSIEWS are increasingly used to support longer-term policyand planning work. Once improved methods and tools for monitoring climate changevariables and assessing their significance at the local level become more widely available, it isexpected that these will be adopted by FSIEWS. At present, the main users of FSIEWS are the national authorities and non-governmentalorganizations (NGOs) that implement safety net programmes covering the basic needs ofpeople who are experiencing either temporary or chronic food insecurity. One of thechallenges for these information systems is to develop channels for disseminating relevantand usable information directly to communities that are experiencing climate change and needto understand what is happening in order to adapt in constructive ways.Figure 10. Providing timely weather information for all actors in the food system Early warning systems Short-term preventive action Food security programming OUTPUTS Emergency and relief Development planning (use of FSIEWS operations Agriculture sector planning information) Agriculture sector planning (medium-/long-term) (short-term) Short term Medium term Long term Early Market and Structural vulnerability FSIEWS warning and trade assessment FUNCTIONS current VA analysis Chronic food insecurity assessment Agricultural season Socio-economic and Health and nutrition monitoring and market conditions monitoring (health INDICATORS forecasting (crops, (monitoring food and nutrition / FSIEWS livestock and supply/demand assessments, ACTIVITIES agroclimatic balance, price household food monitoring) information, security monitoring) purchasing power) FOOD Food Food stability Food SECURITY availability and food access utilization ELEMENTSSource: FAO, 2000b. 37

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Climate change and food security: a framework document An important gap is the lack of weather stations in many rural parts of the developingworld, particularly in Africa, where climate change is expected to have important localimpacts. These impacts cannot be assessed without reliable weather data, and without suchassessments, there is no solid basis for recommending adaptation options. Increasedinvestment in regular and timely collection of weather data in Africa should therefore beaccorded very high priority for protecting food security in the face of climate change in thatregion. Adequate preparedness for foreseeable natural disasters is an important adaptation strategythat is relevant in many parts of the globe, and not only in Africa, where FSIEWS are mostcommonly found. Other types of monitoring systems give advance warning of sudden-onsetevents such as high winds and storm surges associated with hurricanes, cyclones, typhoonsand tornadoes; risk of flooding and landslides after heavy rains; and heat waves and increasedwildfire risk. These warnings enable people to protect property and stock appropriate suppliesor move to safe shelters before the forecasted event. Among FAO’s efforts to improve the quality of weather and climate information and itsuse are: maintaining up-to-date agrometeorological data; developing methods and tools for assessing extreme weather impacts and guiding adaptation; agro-ecological zoning for impact modelling and vulnerability assessment; land-cover mapping; global assessments, such as of crops and forest resources; tailoring information to the perceptions and needs of rural households and providing gender-sensitive guidance for adaptive livelihood development. For rural people who depend on the natural resource base for their livelihoods, protectingfood security in the face of climate change will require improved management of theenvironment, especially during climate extremes, which bring the greatest risk of degradationof the environment and threat to the sustainability of the livelihood systems that depend on it. Figure 11 uses data from Australia to illust rate how improved climate understanding andforecast skill may increase the range of low-risk conditions, and enhance the capacity tomanage high-risk periods.Figure 11. Benefits of improved climate information for reducing risk in AustraliaClimate variability Past Future Gradual growth of understanding about Increased management capacity through improved Australian climate variability climate knowledge and farming practices Times of highest environmental Low environmental risk management opportunities degradation risk (wider range available using knowledge about climate and sustainable agriculture)Source: Australian Bureau of Meteorology, 2006.38

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Protecting food security through adaptation to climate changePromoting insurance schemes for climate change riskIn 2007, the World Economic Forum outlined the five core areas of global risk as economic,environmental, geopolitical, societal and technological. Within these, climate change is seenas one of the defining challenges for the twenty-first century, as it is a global risk withimpacts far beyond the environment (World Economic Forum, 2007). The insurance industryis among the economic sectors that are already experiencing adverse impacts of climatechange. Wealthy countries depend heavily on the private insurance industry to protect their citizensagainst natural disasters. According to a recent report, these countries account for 93 percentof the global insurance market (Hamilton, 2004). This market is increasingly strained as ittries to respond to astronomical increases in claims related to the impacts of extreme weatherevents in North America and Europe. In the United States, a 2005 study on the availability and affordability of climate riskinsurance found that weather-related losses were growing ten times faster than both premiumsand the overall economy, and more than ten times faster than the population; it also noted thatthis trend would be compounded by continued settlement in high-risk areas (Mills, Roth andLecomte, 2005). Higher losses are already leading the insurance industry to charge higher premiums, raisedeductibles, lower maximum coverage limits, and restrict the types of natural disasters orcatastrophic events that can be insured. The authors conclude that, “Given the critical role thatinsurance plays in the US and global economy, reduced access to affordable insurance wouldhave profound impacts on both consumers and businesses” (Mills, Roth and Lacomte, 2005).Although this statement refers to the United States economy, it is equally applicableeverywhere in the world, and the implications for future food security are potentially veryserious. Typical forms of insurance coverage for weather- and climate-related events (e.g., floods,windstorms, thunderstorms, hailstorms, ice storms, wildfires, droughts, heat waves, lightningstrikes, subsidence damage and coastal erosion) include coverage for property damage,business interruptions, and loss of life or limb. If climate stresses cause the insurance industryin the developed world to stop providing such coverage when natural disasters are involved,many previously food-secure people will be exposed to significant uncompensated losses ofproperty and means of livelihood, which could plunge them into a state of vulnerability thathas previously been associated mainly with developing countries. Increasing climate stresses and the retreat of the private sector insurance industry fromcovering losses caused by catastrophic natural events will lead to increasing calls for nationaland local governments to step in. Most governments already operate public sector insuranceprogrammes for major risks if there is no private sector coverage, such as for crop loss, floodand earthquake damage; they also typically pay for disaster preparedness and recoveryoperations. These programmes are also experiencing increasing losses, however, so thefinancial burden of maintaining the current social safety net protection in the face ofadditional demands generated by the impacts of climate change may be beyond what manygovernments in developed countries can afford. Because there is little private sector insurance in developing countries, other approaches toinsurance have evolved to accommodate low-income groups. Informal, locally based micro-insurance initiatives offer a popular alternative because the premiums are low and the rulesare often less stringent than for commercial insurance (Hashemi and Foose, 2007). Public-private partnerships are also increasingly popular, and often involve the governmentcoordinating and/or adding to premium payments made by those to be insured. An examplefrom Ethiopia is given in Box 2. As climate-related risks affect everybody, insurance against the consequences ofcatastrophic weather events needs to be globalized, and costs minimized through action tomitigate climate change. The World Economic Forum suggests the following two globalapproaches for addressing climate risk (World Economic Forum, 2007): 39

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Climate change and food security: a framework documentBox 2. Drought insurance in EthiopiaIn Ethiopia, contingency funding was secured through a private sector reinsurance company, AXA Re,to experiment with a new approach to weather insurance whereby vulnerable households sign financialcontracts obligating them to pay an insurance premium prior to each growing season. The contractsentitle them to receive insurance payouts whenever abnormally low rainfall cause the value of crops inthe ground to fall below a specified trigger. The scheme’s success depends on the ability of localweather stations to track the development of the growing season accurately, so capacity building for themeteorological service was part of the initial experiment. Payout funds from this insurance scheme helpvulnerable households when crops fail because of drought, and reduce their dependence on emergencyrelief.Source: Hess, 2006.x Designating country risk officers – analogous to chief risk officers in the corporate world – to serve as focal points for managing a portfolio of risks across disparate interests, setting national prioritization of risk and allowing governments to engage in the necessary actions to begin managing global risks rather than coping with them.x Creating cooperation among relevant governments and companies around different global risks – “coalitions of the willing” – to make risk mitigation a process of gradually expanding alliances rather than a proposition requiring permanent consensus. Innovative insurance schemes, such as a global reinsurance fund for climate changedamage or expanded local coverage of weather-based insurance, are likely to be needed(Osgood, 2008).Developing national risk management policiesIt is possible to reduce risks by mainstreaming national risk management policy frameworkswithin policies and programmes for sustainable development. From a food securityperspective, the objective of such frameworks is to protect local food supplies, assets andlivelihoods against the effects of increasing weather variability and the increased frequencyand intensity of extreme events. Frameworks should include pre-event preparedness, riskmitigating strategies, reliable and timely early warning and response systems, and innovativerisk financing instruments to spread residual risks. Elements of such frameworks that areapplicable for both rural and urban populations in all ecosystems include effective earlywarning systems; emergency shelters, provisions and evacuation procedures; and weather-related insurance schemes. The objectives of managing climate change risk are to: (i) reduce risk exposure; and (ii)reduce negative outcomes. The process entails first risk mapping, which includes identifyingareas, populations and livelihoods at risk, followed by analysis of the kinds of risks involved,and estimation of the levels of risk exposure of different areas, groups and livelihoods interms of their risk absorption capacity and the size and degree of risk, with explicit attentionto the gender dimension. Participatory approaches to assess vulnerability and needs should involve representativesof all community members in a dynamic process of reflection, planning and action that islivelihoods-based and gender-sensitive, and that draws on local knowledge and priorities.Typical components of national risk management policies and programmes include:x infrastructure investments to protect against asset loss;x climate information and advisory services for agricultural communities;x reliable and timely early warning systems;x rapid emergency response capacity;x innovative risk financing instruments and insurance schemes to spread residual risks.40

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Protecting food security through adaptation to climate change To protect local food supplies, assets and livelihoods from the effects of increasingweather variability and increased frequency and intensity of extreme events, adaptationmeasures will need to respond to a variety of risks, many of which are specific to particularecosystems. The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment report (2005) evaluated potential climate changeimpacts for ten ecosystems: urban, marine, coastal, inland water and floodplain, forest,dryland, island, mountain, polar, and cultivated. The nature of the risks and the affectedlivelihood groups vary considerably from one ecosystem to another, so adaptation responseshave to be tailored to local conditions and needs.STRENGTHENING RESILIENCE AND MANAGINGCHANGEIn addition to risk management, climate change also requires adaptive management thatfocuses on modifying behaviours over the medium-to-long term to cope with gradual changesin precipitation and temperature regimes. These modifications are likely to concernconsumption patterns, health care, food and agricultural production practices, sources and useof energy, and livelihood strategies. Strengthening resilience for all vulnerable people involves adopting practices that enablethem to:x protect existing livelihood systems;x diversify their sources of food and income;x change their livelihood strategies;x migrate if there is no other option. Additional action areas that can strengthen resilience of agriculture-based livelihoodsystems include:x research and dissemination of crop varieties and breeds adapted to changing climatic conditions;x effective use of genetic resources;x promotion of agroforestry, integrated farming systems and adapted forest management practices;x improved infrastructure for small-scale water capture, storage and use;x improved soil management practices.Adjusting consumption and responding to new health risksCurrent projections for continued economic growth to 2030 and beyond imply a continuedincrease in demand for animal protein as average incomes in developing countries rise. Thiswill lead to increased demand for water and, to a lesser extent, land for livestock production.Increased demand, coupled with growing scarcities of water, land and fuel, could bring aboutincreases in food prices, even without climate change. Additional pressures on water availability, due to climate change, the introduction ofmitigation practices that create competition for land, and the attribution of market value toenvironmental services to mitigate climate change, could also cause significant changes inrelative prices for different food items, and an overall increase in the cost of an average foodbasket for the consumer. Although not foreseen in the projections, current marketdevelopments suggest that some of these factors may already be at work in global foodmarkets, driving up prices and increasing the number of people who lack access to anadequate supply of food daily. Faced with rising prices and increased awareness of the environmental consequences oftheir food choices, consumers may modify their spending and eating habits. Environmentally 41

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Climate change and food security: a framework documentconscious consumers may choose to change their food consumption patterns – relying moreon local produce with a lower carbon footprint, and reducing their consumption of grain-fedlivestock with large requirements for increasingly scarce land and water resources. Examplesof possible changes in food consumption patterns include:x shift in staple food preferences;x shift away from grain-fed livestock products;x increased consumption of new food items;x reduced consumption of wild foods;x reduced quantities and/or variety of food consumed. As well as adjusting consumption patterns to obtain a sufficient quantity of food, it willalso be necessary to make adjustments to maintain dietary quality. This could involve:x protecting biodiversity and exploiting wild foods;x promoting urban and school gardens;x increasing use of dry cooking methods to conserve water;x promoting energy-efficient and hygienic food preparation practices;x teaching good eating habits to reduce malnutrition and diet-related diseases. Increased incidence of water-borne diseases in flood-prone areas, change in diseasevectors and habitats for existing diseases, and emergence of new diseases will pose new risksfor food security, food safety and human health. Vector changes are a virtual certainty forpests and diseases that flourish only at specific temperatures and under specific humidity andwater irrigation management regimes. This will expose crops, livestock, fish and humans tonew risks to which they have not yet adapted. It will also place new pressures on care giverswithin the home, who are often women, and challenge health care institutions to respond tonew parameters. Where such vector changes can be predicted, varieties and breeds that areresistant to the likely new arrivals can be introduced as an adaptive measure (WHO, 2007).Intensifying food and agricultural productionTo meet the food demand of a global population that is projected to increase by 2.5 billion by2050, it will be essential to intensify production, obtaining higher yields per unit of input –whether this be land, water, nutrient, plant or animal. Improved land management practicescan contribute to soil moisture retention, maintain appropriate amounts of nutrients in the soil,strengthen resilience and enhance productivity. Maintaining and enhancing plant and animalgenetic resources, and managing livestock operations and fisheries more efficiently will alsobe crucial. Above all, however, a more variable climate and less reliable weather patterns willmake increased capacity for storing water for agricultural use and greater efficiencies in itsapplication essential.Managing agricultural water more efficiently: Even without climate change, the globalwater economy is already in trouble. A major study, Water for food, water for life, released in2007 by Earthscan and the International Water Management Institute (IWMI), reveals thatone in three people today face water shortages (CA, 2007). Although there is theoreticallysufficient freshwater to meet all the world’s projected needs for the foreseeable future, wateris not necessarily accessible in the locations where it is needed. Unsustainable use (with userates exceeding recharge rates) is putting additional pressure on available supplies in manyparts of the world. One important reason for this is the increased per capita demand for waterthat accompanies modern life styles. The water needs of a single human being grow exponentially as that person’s wealth andposition in life increase. Each person requires a mere 2 to 5 litres of water a day for survival,and from 20 to 50 litres for cooking, bathing and cleaning. In urban areas worldwide,42

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Protecting food security through adaptation to climate changehowever, average household water consumption is about 200 litres per person per day. Thisincludes all uses of running water in and around the home, plus other withdrawals from citywater supplies for use by public or commercial properties (CA, 2007). Without water, peoplecannot produce the food they eat. FAO estimates that it takes an average of about 1 000 to 2000 litres of water to produce 1 kg of irrigated wheat and 13 000 to 15 000 litres to producethe same quantity of grain-fed beef. Thus, each human being “eats” an average of 2 000 litresof water a day (CA, 2007). Water use has been growing at more than twice the rate of population increase in the lastcentury, and although there is no global water scarcity as such, an increasing number ofregions are chronically short of water. As the world population continues to increase, andrising incomes and urbanization cause food habits to change towards richer and more varieddiets, even greater quantities of water will be required to guarantee food security (UN Waterand FAO, 2007). Water scarcity is being exacerbated by climate change, especially in the driest areas of theworld, which are home to more than 2 billion people, including half of the world’s poor.Climate change is expected to account for about 20 percent of the global increase in waterscarcity, and countries that already suffer from water shortages will be hit hardest. Even theincreasing interest in bioenergy created by the need to reduce the carbon emissions that causeglobal warming could increase the burden on scarce water resources. Although precipitation is projected to increase at the global level, this will not necessarilylead to increased availability of water where it is needed. In fact, FAO’s 2015/2030projections, citing a 1999 Hadley Centre report, state that “substantial decreases are projectedfor Australia, India, southern Africa, the Near East/North Africa, much of Latin America andparts of Europe” (FAO, 2003b: 364). Increasing water scarcity and changes in the geographic distribution of available waterresulting from climate change pose serious risks for both rainfed and irrigated agriculturalproduction globally. With a more variable climate and less reliable weather patterns it will beessential to increase the water storage capacity for agriculture, to maintain global foodsupplies while satisfying other competing uses for agricultural water (Parry et al., 2007). Looking ahead to 2030, irrigated areas will come under increasing pressure to raise theproductivity of water, both to buffer the more volatile rainfed production (and maintainnational production) and to respond to declining levels of this vital renewable resource. Thisrisk will need to be managed by progressively adjusting the operation of large-scale irrigationand drainage systems to ensure higher cropping intensities and reduce the gaps between actualand potential yields. The inter-annual storage of excess rainfall and the use of resource-efficient irrigationremain the only guaranteed means of maintaining cropping intensities. Water resourcemanagement responses for river basins and aquifers, which are often transboundary, will beforced to become more agile and adaptive (including near-real-time management), asvariability in river flows and aquifer recharge becomes apparent. Competing sectoral demands for water will increase pressure on the agriculture sector tojustify the allocations it receives. Water allocation strategies should protect the ecologicalreserve – the water required by the environment for the effective maintenance of hydrologicalecosystems and services – as a crucial component of adaptive capacity and a buffer againstthe ecological risks that ensue when water becomes scarce. Key adjustments for maintaining cropped areas include:x optimizing operational storage, i.e., manageable water resources such as water stored behind a dam;x controlling releases to improve hydraulic performance and salinity control;x optimizing crop water productivity. Water allocations and releases to agriculture across river basins are essential for improvingoperational performance. Well-targeted investments in small-scale water control facilities and 43

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Climate change and food security: a framework documentthe upgrading of larger-scale facilities, together with associated institutional reforms, will payoff in the medium term. Other strategies that can increase water productivity directly or haveindirect water saving benefits include (Pretty et al., 2006):x reducing soil evaporation through conservation agriculture practices;x planting more water-efficient crop varieties;x enhancing soil fertility to increase yields per unit of water utilized;x decreasing runoff from cultivated land;x reducing crop water requirements through microclimatic changes;x reusing wastewater for agricultural purposes. Currently, about 2 million hectares are irrigated by reused wastewater, but this area couldgrow (CA, 2007). In the longer term, a transition towards more precision-irrigated agriculture should beanticipated. Conservation agriculture, precision-irrigated agriculture and the resulting improvedwater productivity require specialized tools and equipment; incentives are needed to ensure thatthese inputs are adopted in areas where the expansion of commercial agricultural is desirable.Managing land sustainably: Production risks can be spread and buffered by a broad range ofland management practices and technologies. Enhancing residual soil moisture through landconservation techniques assists significantly at the margin of dry periods, while buffer strips,mulching and zero-tillage mitigate soil erosion risk in areas with increasing rainfall intensity. Conservation agriculture is an option for adaptation as well as for mitigation because theincrease in soil organic matter reduces vulnerability to both excessive rainfall and drought. Theimpact is not immediate; soil under zero-tillage tends to increase the soil organic matter contentby approximately 0.1 to 0.2 percent per year, corresponding to the formation of 1 cm of newsoil over a ten-year period (Crovetto, 1999). However, not only does organic matter facilitatesoil structuring, and hence the infiltration and storage of water in the soil, but it also directlyabsorbs up to 150 m3 water per hectare for each percent of soil organic matter. In addition,under conservation agriculture, no soil moisture is lost through tillage and seedbed preparation. This means that seeding often does not need rainfall, because the seed can use the existing soilmoisture. The total water requirements for a given crop are also lower in conservation than inconventional agriculture, which is of particular interest where water is scarce; reported watersavings amount to at least 30 percent. This is because less water is lost through surface runoff andunproductive evaporation, and more is stored in the soil. Crops under conservation agriculturesuffer much less from drought conditions, and are often the only crops to yield in such situations.Yield fluctuations under conservation agriculture are generally much less severe than undercomparable conventional agriculture (Tebrügge and Bohmsen, 1998; Derpsch, 2005). Among the disadvantages of conservation agriculture are its tendency to produce weedproblems that require chemical herbicides to control; it is a technology requiring relativelyhigh management skills, as many of the field operations must be implemented with aconsiderable degree of precision; and although permanent soil cover is ideal in the long term,there are short-term costs that must be covered before the system is well-established. Start-upincentives and training may therefore be needed to encourage farmers to adopt theconservation agriculture approach.Maintaining biodiversity: Promoting agrobiodiversity is crucial for local adaptation andresilience. Biodiversity in all its manifestations – genes, species, ecosystems, etc. – increasesresilience to changing environmental conditions and stresses. Genetically diverse populationsand species-rich ecosystems have greater potential to adapt to climate change. FAO promotesthe use of indigenous and locally adapted plant and animal diversity, and the selection andmultiplication of crop varieties and autochthonous races that are adapted or resistant toadverse conditions.44

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Protecting food security through adaptation to climate change Effective use of genetic resources can reduce negative effects of climate change onagricultural production and farmers’ livelihoods. As women are traditionally the carriers oflocal knowledge about the properties and uses of wild plants, and the keepers of seeds forcultivated varieties, they have an important role in protecting biodiversity. Providingappropriate compensation for this service could guarantee a sustainable livelihood to thesewomen, many of whom belong to vulnerable and food-insecure groups. Breeding plants and animals for tolerance to drought, heat stress, salinity and flooding willalso become increasingly important. FAO promotes the rebuilding of developing countrynational capacities to breed such crops, especially those in which the private sector is notinvolved. The Global Partnership Initiative for Plant Breeding Capacity Building (GIPB),facilitated by FAO, was launched on the margins of the first Governing Body Meeting of theInternational Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources in June 2007. It will contribute to Article 6 ofthe treaty, regarding sustainable use of plant genetic resources. Adapting crops cannot be separated from other management options within agro-ecosystems; for example, rice is both affected by and has an effect on climate. Climate changeis expected to have a significant impact on the productivity of rice systems, and thus on thenutrition and livelihood of millions of people. Rice systems, especially in south and east Asia,are under increasing pressure because of their high water needs and their role as a source ofmethane emissions. New crop management systems are therefore required that increase riceyields and reduce production costs by enhancing the efficiency of input application,increasing water use efficiency, and reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Rice is currently the staple food of more than half the world’s population. In Asia alone,more than 2 billion people obtain 60 to 70 percent of their calories from rice and its products.It is the most rapidly growing source of food in Africa, and is of significant importance tofood security in an increasing number of low-income, food-deficit countries. Rice-basedproduction systems and their associated post-harvest operations employ nearly 1 billionpeople in rural areas of developing countries. About 80 percent of the world’s rice is grown by small-scale farmers in low-income anddeveloping countries. Efficient and productive rice-based production systems are thereforeessential for economic development and improved quality of life for much of the world’spopulation (FAO, 2004c). Rice is a highly adaptable staple with many properties that have not yet been exploited in large-scale production systems. It is tolerant to desert, hot, humid, flooded, dry and cool conditions, andgrows in saline, alkaline and acidic soils. At present, however, only two of the 23 rice species arecultivated. Science can help improve the productivity and efficiency of rice-based systems.Improved technologies enable farmers to grow more rice on limited land with less water, labour andpesticides, thus reducing damage to the environment. In addition, improved plant breeding, weedand pest control, water management and nutrient-use efficiency can increase productivity, reducecosts and improve the quality of the products of rice-based production systems. New rice varieties being developed exhibit enhanced nutritional value, require less water,produce high yields in dryland conditions, minimize post-harvest losses, and have increasedresistance to drought and pests and increased tolerance to floods and salinity. For example,rice varieties with salinity tolerance have been used to expedite the recovery of production inareas damaged by the 2005 Asian tsunami. The Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research and FAO are promotingRice Integrated Crop Management Systems (RICMS). By introducing integrated soil, waterand nutrient management practices for sustainable rice-wheat cropping systems in Asia,RICMS would complement the introduction of new varieties and address the environmentalproblems that have emerged in these systems since earlier yield-enhancing technologies wereintroduced (International Rice Commission, 2002).Improving livestock management: In its recent publication, Livestock’s long shadow:Environment issues and options, FAO points out that approximately 70 percent of the world’sagricultural land is used by the livestock sector, including grazing land and cropland for feedproduction (FAO, 2006c). Current prices of land, water and feed do not reflect true scarcities, 45

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Climate change and food security: a framework documentleading to the overuse of resources and major inefficiencies in the livestock sector. Full-costpricing of inputs and widespread adoption of improved land management practices by bothintensive and extensive livestock producers would help to resolve more sustainably thecompeting demands for animal food products and environmental services. Increased intensification and industrialization are improving efficiency and reducing theland area required for livestock production, but they are also marginalizing smallholders andpastoralists, increasing inputs and wastes and concentrating the resultant pollution. Extensivegrazing still occupies and degrades vast areas of grassland. Overgrazing is the greatest cause of grassland degradation, an important contributor todeforestation and the overriding human-influenced factor in determining soil carbon levels ofgrasslands. In many systems, improved grazing management, such as optimized stock numbersand rotational grazing, will therefore result in substantial increases in carbon pools. Improvedpasture management and integrated agroforestry systems that combine crops, grazing lands andtrees in ecologically sustainable ways are also effective in conserving the environment andmitigating climate change, while providing more diversified and secure livelihoods for inhabitants.Improving fisheries management: Worldwide, some 200 million people and theirdependants, most of them in developing countries, live from fishing and aquaculture. Fishprovide an important source of cash income for many poor households and are a widelytraded food commodity. As well as stimulating local market economies, fish can also be animportant source of foreign exchange. Variability across different time scales has always been a feature of fisheries, especiallycapture fisheries. Recruitment and productivity in most fisheries vary from year to year, andare also subject to longer-term variability that typically occurs on a decadal scale. Forexample, populations of small pelagic fish in upwelling systems vary both from year to yearand on a decadal scale, often showing shifts in productivity patterns and dominant species. Where management is effective, fishery systems have developed adaptive strategies and,through monitoring and feedback, fishing effort and catches are regularly modified accordingto the state of the stock. Fishers must have adequate robustness and/or flexibility to absorb thechanges in resource abundance, while avoiding negative ecological, social or economicimpacts (FAO, 2007b).Creating an eco-friendly energy economyA fundamental principle for adaptation in the energy sector is that meeting the demand for bioenergyshould not undermine food security. This demand has been growing because of the rising cost ofpetroleum, concern about dependence on fossil fuel imports, the climate change mitigation benefitsof reducing reliance on fossil fuels, and the increase in demand for fuelwood and charcoal forexpanding populations in many parts of the developing world. This section explores the intersectionsamong climate change, energy security and food security, and the prospects for second-generationbiofuels and increased energy efficiency as alternatives to biofuel crops. Another important issue,which is sometimes overlooked in discussions of the global energy economy, is the role ofsustainably managed forests and trees as a source of energy at the national and household levels.Understanding linkages among climate change, energy security and food security: It ishypothesized that ethanol produced from biomass4 can help mitigate climate change andreduce greenhouse gas emissions by substituting fossil fuel. IPCC estimates that by 2030,4 As yet, there is no consistent international usage of bioenergy terminology. This paper uses the following terms andmeanings: biomass = material of biological origin (excluding material embedded in geological formations andtransformed to fossil); biofuel feedstock = organic materials used in the production of liquid and gaseous biofuels; biofuel= fuel produced directly or indirectly from solid, liquid or gaseous biomass; bioenergy = energy production from biofuels,including wood energy (derived from fuelwood, charcoal, forestry residues, black liquor and any other tree product) andagro-energy (derived from purpose-grown crops and from agricultural and livestock by-products, residues and wastes);first-generation biofuels = fuels produced from purpose-grown crops; second-generation biofuels = fuels produced fromcellulosic materials (woody material and tall grasses), crop residues, and agricultural and municipal wastes.46

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Protecting food security through adaptation to climate changeliquid biofuels could supply 3 percent of the transport sector’s energy needs, rising to 5 to 10percent if second-generation biofuels take off (IPCC, 2007b). As a spin-off benefit, the ruralsectors in developing countries can attract investment by generating tradable emissionreduction credits – certified emission reductions (CERs) – through the Kyoto Protocol and theinternational market for greenhouse gas emission reductions. There are uncertainties surrounding the potential climate change-related benefits, however.For example, with respect to the implications for climate change, the energy balance needs tobe calculated over the whole production chain from bioenergy crop to biofuel end-product.Biofuels can be considered to contribute to climate change mitigation only if their use hasproduced fewer net emissions of greenhouse gases at the end of the production process thanthe average emissions from fossil fuel use. Even if there is a net contribution, producingbiofuel from purpose-grown crops is not necessarily the most efficient use of available land. A UN-Energy publication sponsored by FAO (UN Energy, 2007) identifies nine factorsthat must be considered in determining the sustainability of bioenergy development:x ability of modern bioenergy to provide energy services for the poor;x implications for agro-industrial development and job creation;x health and gender implications;x implications for the structure of agriculture;x implications for food security;x implications for government budget;x implications for trade, foreign exchange balances and energy security;x impacts on biodiversity and natural resources management;x implications for climate change, including avoidance of deforestation and creation of a positive energy balance. Biofuel crops have potential for large-scale production wherever food crops are currentlygrown or could be grown. Table 4 indicates the areas of land that would have to be devoted tothe production of first-generation biofuel feedstocks if they were to substitute 25 percent ofthe current demand for transportation fuels (or 10 percent of total energy demand). It usesdata on the potential yields of a number of crops and their fuel conversion efficiencies.TABLE 4Land required to replace 25 percent of current fuel demand for transport(45 EJ/year) Yield (gross) Agricultural land required (GJ/ha/year) (% of currently available 2.5 billion ha) Sugar cane 104 17 Sugar beet 90 20 Palm-oil 81 22 Maize 54 33 Wheat 45 40 Barley 20 91 Rape 20 91 Sunflowers 16 111 Soybean 9 200Source: Dutch EnergyTransition. 47

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Climate change and food security: a framework documentTABLE 5Distribution of global land area, 2004 Land use, 2004 Area (billion ha) Arable land 1.4 Permanent crops 0.1 Pastures 3.4 Forest 3.9 Other 4.5 Total 13.4Source: FAO Online, FAOStat. As Table 4 clearly shows, grain crops in particular have too low a production potential forthis ambitious target to be realized, underlining the need to increase efficiency of the wholeproduction and conversion process. Moreover, as Table 5 shows, the assumption that 2.5billion ha of agricultural land is available is optimistic, given the far smaller area that currentstatistics give as land for arable crops. If production of feedstocks for liquid biofuels takes good arable land out of foodproduction, it could reduce the availability of food on global markets and raise market prices,with consequent negative effects on food security at all levels (household, national andglobal). Furthermore, most sources of liquid biofuels are currently not commercially viablewithout subsidies, mandates and/or tariffs. If subsidized production of liquid biofuel fromfield crops becomes an important factor in global agricultural markets, competition for landand water will increase, putting upwards pressure on food prices and increasing theprevalence of food insecurity. There are other possible negative effects of biomass production for bioenergy, includingthe risk that dedicating large tracts of land to monocropping of energy crops will contribute todeforestation, land degradation, carbon emissions, contaminated surface and groundwater,and loss of biodiversity, and it is not clear that the net energy gain from biofuel productionwill be positive. In response to these and other concerns about whether large-scale productionof bioenergy crops is really sustainable (Dutch EnergyTransition), the United Nations SpecialRapporteur on the Right to Food, Mr Jean Ziegler, called for a five-year moratorium on theconversion of arable land to biofuel production. Speaking at a press conference for theopening of the Fifth Special Session of the Human Rights Council in New York, he statedthat:“The creation of ‘pure fuels’, or biofuels, to protect the environment and reduce oil dependence is nota bad idea, but its negative impact on hunger would be catastrophic. When tonnes of maize, wheat,beans and other food staples are converted to fuel, food prices rise and arable land is lost to foodproduction. Last year, the price of wheat doubled and of maize quadrupled.“As prices rise, the poorest countries cannot pay, and the poorest people, generally living withoutaccess to subsistence farming, cannot purchase more expensive foodstuffs. The amount of corn neededto make enough ethanol to fill a single car’s fuel tank could fill a child for an entire year.“Non-food agricultural products that could grow in soil unfit for food production could be used as analternative source of biofuels. For example, in a project in Rajasthan, India, the Mercedes company isgrowing jatropha for biodiesel in arid land. Following a moratorium, such projects could be evaluatedand new fuels produced.” (UNDPI, 2007) An expert meeting convened by FAO in February 2008 confirmed that there weresignificant concerns about the potential impacts of biofuels on food security. Early evidencesuggests that the introduction of biofuels initially reduces food availability and increases foodprices, with immediate adverse impacts on the food security situation for poor consumers inboth urban and rural areas. These impacts affect people’s access not only to starchy staples,but also – and often more important – to foods needed for a balanced diet, such as vegetableoil and animal products. Because food and energy supply are both subject to random shocks,48

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Protecting food security through adaptation to climate changeprofitability will lead to cycles of expansion and contraction, which will increase foodsecurity concerns (FAO, 2008). It is already anticipated that traditional safety nets may not be adequate in the face of newand increasing vulnerabilities caused by climate change. Market-induced vulnerabilityattributable to higher and more variable prices for food as a consequence of biofuel demandwill only compound this problem. Expansion of liquid biofuel production would intensify theimpact on food prices and land availability if the expansion were based on the continued useof present technologies in current policy environments (FAO, 2008). However, experts at the meeting also expressed the view that liquid biofuel development doesnot have to be adverse for food security, particularly if production is allowed to find its naturalcompetitive equilibrium, which today would favour production of sugar cane and discourageproduction of starchy crops as liquid biofuel feedstocks. Emergent poor farmers with sufficientskills and assets to become successful commercial farmers can take advantage of the emergingliquid biofuel market, provided they live in locations where growing conditions are suitable andappropriate infrastructure is present. If domestic markets are functioning efficiently, higher pricescan benefit the farmers producing such cash crops as sunflower, soybean, rapeseed or sugar cane,irrespective of the final use of the harvested crop. However, higher prices for staple cereals such asmaize will increase food insecurity for poor farming households that are net buyers of the stapleconcerned, as is often the case (FAO, 2008). On the other hand, if second-generation biofuels come on stream during the next decade ortwo, as many experts predict they will, they could create new livelihood opportunities andimprove food security for many currently vulnerable people living on degraded lands wherecellulosic feedstocks could be produced. Such a development would also constitute a goodoption for mitigating and adapting to climate change on these lands, because the introductionof woody vegetation would sequester carbon, improve the water retention capacity of the soiland reduce erosion (FAO, 2008). Even without second-generation biofuels, the mix of feedstocks and biofuels in use islikely to change over the medium term. For example, the International Energy Agency (IEA)foresees changes in the relative importance of different biofuel feedstocks over time (IEA,2006), and FAO projects that traditional sources of biofuel will decline in importance asopportunity costs for labour increase and rural people can no longer afford the time to collectfuelwood or burn charcoal. At some point, rising prices for oil will make methane (biogas)competitive, and eventually butanol is likely to replace ethanol for mixture with gasoline as atransport fuel. Planted forests represent only 7 percent of global forest cover, but they account for morethan half of global industrial roundwood production (FAO, 2006b). There is significantpotential for expanding planted forests on marginal lands or lands released from crop orlivestock production. Increasing proportions of sustainably produced industrial roundwoodand wood for energy generation will come from planted rather than native forests.Increasing energy efficiency: Although the debate about biofuel/food security tradeoffs hasso far focused on how to manage competing demands for scarce productive resources, it isequally important to consider energy saving and efficient use for reducing the demand forenergy, including bioenergy. Inefficient use of water for irrigation also results in energy inefficiency, so gains inirrigation efficiency can be expected to lead to energy savings and reduced pumping costs.Over the entire cropping cycle, conservation agriculture generates diesel fuel saving of about60 percent compared with conventional tillage. Reduced fuel requirements for primary andsecondary tillage operations and planting are particularly significant. Use of other inputs thatrequire energy for their manufacture, such as machinery, fertilizer and pesticides, is alsolower. One study (FAO/SDR Energy Programme, 2000) estimates that overall, conservationagriculture consumes 40 to 50 percent less energy than conventional tillage, including theenergy requirements for producing inputs. This lower fossil fuel requirement for fieldoperations is the main driving force for adopting zero-tillage cropping systems in mechanizedfarming, under scenarios of increasing fuel costs. 49

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Climate change and food security: a framework document The fisheries sector can play only a small part in reducing CO2 emissions through greaterenergy efficiency, but there may be synergies among emissions reductions, energy savingsand responsible fisheries. For example, reducing the fuel subsidies granted to fishing fleetswould encourage energy efficiency and assist the reduction of overcapitalization in fisheries;static gear – pots, traps, longlines and gillnets – uses less fuel than active gear such as trawlsand seines. Micro- and small-scale agroprocessing industries have an important role in increasing anddiversifying livelihood opportunities for the rural poor. However, these people are oftenhandicapped by poverty and lack of assets, low education levels, poor understanding of thesector, and low levels of inputs, reducing their competitiveness. In addition, the practices thatthey employ often degrade and contaminate the environment. Regarding energy use, mostsmall-scale agroprocessing operations are intensive consumers of fuelwood, so contribute tothe problems referred to in the previous section. More energy-efficient technologies could beemployed by small-scale agroprocessing industries, but operators need to obtain the necessaryskills and start-up capital to adopt them. Many operators are women, who could be reachedthrough programmes that target women as a vulnerable group (FAO, 2002).Exploiting forests sustainably: Sustainable forest management is a dynamic and evolvingconcept. The aim is to maintain and enhance the economic, social and environmental valuesof all types of forests for the benefit of present and future generations (UNFF, 2007). In itsbroadest sense, forest management encompasses the administrative, legal, technical,economic, social and environmental aspects of the conservation and use of forests. It impliesvarious degrees of deliberate human intervention, ranging from actions to safeguard andmaintain the forest ecosystem and its functions, to favouring specific socially or economicallyvaluable species or groups of species for the improved production of goods and services. Especially in the tropics and subtropics, however, many of the world’s forests andwoodlands are still not managed in accordance with the Forest Principles adopted at theUnited Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) in 1992. Manydeveloping countries have inadequate funding and human resources for the preparation,implementation and monitoring of forest management plans, and lack mechanisms to ensurethe participation and involvement of all stakeholders in forest planning and development.Where forest management plans exist, they are frequently limited to ensuring sustainedproduction of wood, without due concern for non-wood forest products and services or socialand environmental values. In addition, many countries lack appropriate forest legislation,regulation and incentives to promote sustainable forest management practices. Climate change will influence forests in all regions. In Africa, for example, lower rainfallis expected to decrease forest productivity and increase the area of dryland forests. In LatinAmerica, the forest of the eastern Amazon is expected to be replaced by savannah. In NorthAmerica and northern Europe, higher temperatures may make forests more productive andalter the ranges of some species. Trees under stress are also more susceptible to harmful insect pests and diseases. Recentoutbreaks of insect pests, especially in temperate regions, have been linked to alterations intheir fertility and mortality related to climate change. An example of this is the recentoutbreak of the mountain pine beetle, which has already destroyed 12 million ha of forests inCanada. Sustainable forest management includes adapting and planning ahead for these changes, aswell as managing forests and woodlands to cope with new climatic conditions so that theycontribute to flood prevention and provide habitats and wildlife corridors for a diversity offlora and fauna. When planting new forests, careful consideration needs to be given to specieschoice, particularly where timber production is important.50

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Protecting food security through adaptation to climate change The United Nations Forum on Forests (UNFF) has provisionally identified seven thematic areas that need to be addressed to achieve more sustainable forest management (FAO Online Forestry): extent of forest resources; biodiversity; forest health and vitality; productive functions of forest resources; protective functions of forest resources; socio-economic functions of forest resources; the legal, policy and institutional framework for sustainable forest management. Achieving the transition from deforestation to forest conservation and management is a huge challenge. It involves protecting and managing what already exists, reducing deforestation and forest degradation, restoring more of the world’s forest cover, using more wood for energy, making greater industrial use of wood to replace other materials, ensuring the livelihoods of forest-dependent people and safeguarding the ecosystem services of forests. Improving household energy security and food security simultaneously: Less publicized, but equally important, is the energy demand of both rural and urban poor people. Bioenergy is already the dominant source of energy for about half of the world’s population, most of whom live on less than US$2 per day (FAO Online, Bioenergy). Figures 12 and 13 show how important this form of energy already is in developing countries – a point that is sometimes overlooked in the current enthusiasm about bioenergy as a substitute for fossil fuel in the transport sector. Figure 12. Shares of bioenergy in total energy supply 35 33 Woodfuel from plantations, natural and semi-natural forests 30 All biofuels 25 20(%) 15 15 13 10 7 5 3 2 0 Developing Industrialized World countries countries Sources: FAO, 2000a. 51

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Climate change and food security: a framework documentFigure 13. Shares of bioenergy in total primary energy supply in different regions in2004 50 47.6 45 40 35 29.4 30 % 25 20 18.0 15 13.5 10 5.8 5 3.0 0.8 0.2 0 Africa Asia Latin China Non- OECD Former Near America OECD USSR EastSource: IEA, 2006. Europe For food system performance and food security, improving the management of biomasssources for household use can make important contributions in parts of the developing worldwhere large numbers of poor or very poor people live. The incidence of poverty and foodinsecurity correlates almost exactly with what is called the “energy ladder.” At the householdlevel, the poorest people use manure, twigs and low-grade biomass for cooking and heating,and only human force in their productive activities. As they become less poor and move upthe economic ladder, they switch to fuelwood, progressing through charcoal, kerosene and gasto electricity, and integrating animals and simple tools into production processes. At a certainlevel of development, they will integrate some level of mechanization, irrigation andfertilization, moving on – if successful – to mechanized equipment such as tractors andharvesters, which imply a switch to fossil fuels (FAO, 2005). In both household and economic activities, the energy ladder follows and influences theeconomic ladder. If attempts to alleviate hunger and promote rural development and foodsecurity are to have lasting success, they must recognize and address the key role of energy.Current practices are adding to carbon emissions through deforestation and desertificationcaused by increasing population pressure on natural fuelwood sources. They also haveadverse health impacts caused by smoke inhalation from unvented cooking stoves andoutdoor fires. Scarcity of fuel restricts the amount of cooked food that can be prepared, oftenwith adverse consequences for food security and the nutritional quality of the diet. Box 3illustrates the multiple cascading effects of inaction for the case of Rwanda and easternDemocratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Incorporating trees and woodlands in traditional farming systems enhances energy and foodsecurity and protects the environment. Various fast-growing tree species are well-adapted tograssland ecosystems, where many currently vulnerable people live. Introducing such species inmanaged woodlots could provide a vital source of fuel and fodder, as well as holding soil,retaining water, eliminating the need for continued cutting of natural stands of trees and shrubs,and contributing tree crops to the diet. In the past, however, such introductions have often failedwhen local people have not perceived the need to manage the trees. Thus the cycle of energy impoverishment, environmental degradation, rising rates ofcarbon emissions and increasing food insecurity is perpetuated (ETFRN, 2003). Essentialinvestments to break this cycle include: (i) sustainable development of agroforestry parklands;(ii) introduction of integrated food and bioenergy systems at the household level; and (iii)promotion of smallholder production of such crops as palm-oil, rapeseed and jatropha, whichcan produce oils for making biodiesel for decentralized power generation and water pumps(FAO, 2007e).52

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Protecting food security through adaptation to climate changeBox 3. Gorilla slaughter, conflict, deforestation and demand for charcoal in Rwanda andeastern DRC“It will take a focused global initiative to end the conflict, introduce alternative sources of householdfuel, and create alternative livelihoods.”Millions of people were horrified by the slaughter of mountain gorillas that occurred in DRC’s VirungaNational Park in the summer of 2007. In one month, nine gorillas more than 1 percent of the knownpopulation of these charismatic relatives of humankind were wiped out. Wildlife conservationorganizations leapt into action and began raising funds to deal with the slaughter, and a crisis teamentered the area. In the following four weeks, people’s desire to help save the species produceddonations amounting to tens of thousands of dollars. However, if the underlying demand for charcoal is ignored and interventions focus too much onthe gorillas alone, the result will be the extermination of not only the mountain gorillas, but also theforests, woodlands and all the unique species that inhabit this biologically diverse landscape. Theclimate mitigation services provided by the intact forests will also be lost, which could lead to a humancrisis that dwarfs the tragedy of nine gorillas. Living at the epicentre of the bloodiest conflict since the Second World War, the mountain gorillasshare their habitat with heavily armed militia. In other lawless regions, where wild meat comes intocontact with hungry soldiers, species are slaughtered for food, or for trophies to be traded for cash andweapons. However, these gorilla deaths were repulsive because the animals’ corpses were of no use tothe killers. Instead, it is the mountain gorillas’ presence in the Virunga National Park that puts them atrisk, because they draw attention to an area that unscrupulous people would rather was forgotten. At the heart of the crisis is charcoal the main form of household energy in Africa and charcoalmaking means felling forests, destroying wildlife habitats and damaging ecosystem services such aswater catchments and soil fertility. Charcoal production has been going on for millennia, but recentevents in eastern DRC have led to a sharp escalation in demand. In neighbouring Rwanda, an enormoushuman population has stripped almost all of its indigenous forests bare; while in the DRC border townof Goma, refugees fleeing the region’s crises have swelled the population to more than half a million.Together, these factors have created a demand for charcoal worth an estimated US$30 million a year.To save Rwanda’s few remaining forests and the gorillas, which have become a major source of touristrevenue, President Paul Kagame has installed an efficient and effective ban on charcoal production inRwanda, but this has driven the illegal industry across the border into DRC, threatening the habitats ofthe gorillas in the park, which straddles both countries. Given the lack of effective government ineastern DRC, and the extremely small government salaries wildlife protection rangers earn just US$5a month for risking their lives it is not surprising that the park’s forests have become a commons, andvirtually everybody is involved in the scramble for resources, from smallholders to high-rankinggovernment officials and rebel militia. If gorillas focus unwelcome global attention on the park, the people who are enriching themselvesfrom charcoal will seek to remove that attention by getting rid of the animals. Shocking though thegorilla killings were, this is fundamentally a human tragedy, with very human solutions. Alternativesources of energy are needed to meet the demand in both Rwanda and eastern DRC, and the rule of lawmust return to DRC, to save the forests for the long-term good of all, rather than looting them for theshort-term profit of a few. Although this seems to be a very local problem, the whole world has an interest in protecting theforests. Not only is one of the most charismatic and important species on earth at risk of extinction, butthere is also a danger of damaging further the world’s warming climate. This makes the forests’destruction a “double whammy”. Charcoal burning is one of the greatest sources of atmospheric CO2,and it also strips away the trees that otherwise soak up so much of the CO2 in the atmosphere. Although the alarm has been raised by conservation organizations concerned about gorillas, andthe global public has responded, it is clear that the problem is much greater than that of conservationalone. This is a human development crisis and it will take a focused global initiative to end the conflict,introduce alternative sources of household fuel, and create alternative livelihoods for the populationliving in eastern Kivu.Source: Leakey, 2007. 53

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Climate change and food security: a framework document In farming systems that include livestock, the conversion of animal wastes into biogas isanother potential source of energy that could improve household energy security whilereducing methane emissions. Appropriate biogas technologies have not yet attractedwidespread interest owing to their lack of market competitiveness, but this is beginning tochange. Other options in the bioenergy sector that could offer livelihood opportunities for therural poor include organizing bioenergy cooperatives or contracting with local growers;encouraging investment in bioenergy plantations that employ local labour; and promotingreclamation of degraded lands that are accessible to existing roads, powerlines and watersources, and zoning these lands for a combination of energy crop production, biofuelmanufacture and industrial parks that create a market for the fuel (FAO, 2007e).Adapting agriculture-based livelihood strategiesTaking ecosystems into account: A number of risks are specific to different ecosystems.Although the convention in sustainability literature is to classify only drylands, mountains andcoastal zones as fragile, growing understanding of the likely multiple impacts of climatechange may reduce the relevance of distinguishing between fragile and robust ecosystems. Allecosystems will need to adapt to climate change, albeit in different ways and with differingdemands for new technologies and investments. Table 6 lists specific examples of adaptationsthat are already known to be needed in each of the ecosystems evaluated for the MillenniumEcosystem Assessment. In Mali, for example, the hard reality of existing in rural areas is driving many people tourban areas, thereby exacerbating urban poverty. A study analysing the consequences ofvarious options for adapting to climate change in Mali found that the country’s naturalresource base has been seriously degraded owing to the high population growth rate, thepressure to grow more and more food, and the low rate of adoption of improved technologies(Butt et al., 2005). Because of rural-urban migration, the country’s urban population isexpected to grow four times faster than its rural population. However, if potential adaptationsto climate change were widely adopted, including a shift in crop mixes and introduction ofgreenhouse technologies, overall economic surplus in rural areas could improve, despiteincreased weather variability and more frequent droughts and floods. The study also considered the implications of climate change in terms of policies thatexpanded cropland (into rangeland), where food security conditions subsequently showed vastimprovement. The study highlights that climate change affects the livelihoods and well-beingof people in numerous ways (economic, biophysical, political) and advocates for an approachthat can adapt to all these factors to improve food security conditions and realize highereconomic benefits, thereby meeting the challenges posed by climate change.Taking scale into account: The wide range of ways in which livelihoods, particularly ofpoorer groups, are affected by climate variability and climate change highlights the need tofocus on adaptation at the livelihood scale. Some adaptations will be household-levelinterventions, reducing the negative impact of changing climatic conditions on activities;others will involve support from a higher scale, such as a change in policy or provision of asubsidy for acquisition or maintenance of a certain asset. At the household level, there are many ways that people might adapt to climate change. Ifthe household is involved in agricultural activities, it is likely to start by changing agriculturalstrategies to cope better with the local change in climate. This might include using drought-resistant and early-maturing seed varieties, reducing evaporation through mulching, anddecreasing soil erosion through wind barriers. To undertake these actions, households mightneed advice on suitable seed varieties and how to mulch, and resources to create windbarriers.54

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Climate change and food security: a framework documentNature of risk Livelihood groups at risk Adaptation responsesForest ecosystemExtreme Low-income, forest-dependent people Integrated forest pest management systems x Heavy rains People indirectly dependent on forest ecosystem services Integrated forest fire management x High winds systems x Floods Integrated watershed management x Droughts approaches x Wildfires Adjusted silvicultural practicesGradual Forest conservation x Sea level rise Promotion of small-scale forest-based enterprises for local income x Forest dieback diversification x Pests and diseaseDryland ecosystemExtreme Low-income groups in drought- and flood- Improved crop, grassland and livestock prone areas with poor food distribution management x Droughts infrastructure and limited access to Promotion of cropping systems that x Floods emergency response increase soil organic matter and waterGradual Producers of crops that may not be infiltration capacity (zero-tillage systems) sustainable under changing temperature x Changes in rainfall patterns Research and dissemination of crop and rainfall regimes varieties and breeds adapted to Poor livestock keepers where changes in changing climatic conditions rainfall patterns will affect forage Introduction of integrated agroforestry availability and quality systems Community grain storage for food distribution Weather-related insuranceIsland ecosystemSame as coastal ecosystem Same as coastal ecosystem Same as coastal ecosystemMountain ecosystemExtreme People indirectly dependent on mountain Integrated watershed management ecosystem services approaches x Floods Producers of crops that may not be Adjusted silvicultural practices x Landslidex sustainable under changing temperature Research and dissemination of crop and rainfall regimes varieties and breeds adapted to changing climatic conditionsPolar ecosystemNot specified Not specified Not specifiedCultivated ecosystemExtreme Producers of tree crops that are Introduction of cropping systems that do susceptible to wind damage not move and expose soil x High winds Producers of crops that may not be Introduction of integrated agroforestry x Floods sustainable under changing temperature systems x Droughts and rainfall regimes Research and dissemination of cropGradual varieties and breeds adapted to changing climatic conditions x Changing temperature and rainfall regimesSource: FAO/NRCB and ESAC. There are great opportunities to improve poor people’s ability to lift themselves out ofpoverty under conditions of greater water security and sustainability. With the right incentivesand investments to mitigate risks for individual farmers, improving water control in small-scale agriculture is feasible and holds considerable potential as an adaptation strategy in partsof the world that are vulnerable to increasing water scarcity as a result of climate change.56

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Protecting food security through adaptation to climate change The introduction of improved techniques for water harvesting and exploitation of shallowaquifers can contribute to local food security for poor people in drought- and flood-proneareas, ensuring that local food production is as productive as possible and stable, and thathouseholds have access to sufficient, safe supplies of water for domestic use, despiteirregularities in the timing and intensity of rainfall and consequent unevenness in the rechargerates for underground and surface-level water sources.Taking gender differences into account: Changes in the variability of prevailing weatherconditions may shorten time windows for field work – be it land preparation, weeding, pestmanagement or harvest – inevitably resulting in higher demand for human labour, animaltraction or mechanized farm power to carry out the activities in shorter periods. Changes inweather variability also require greater flexibility to start operations as soon as weatherconditions permit. In mechanized farming systems, shorter time windows result in increasing machineryinvestments. Where these are not possible, untimely operations can result in yield reductionsand eventually complete crop failure or harvest loss. Where there is a shift from labour tomechanization, men and women whose livelihoods depend on employment can lose thoselivelihoods and consequently have less access to income, thereby reducing their capacity tobuy food. In this process, women are likely to suffer disproportionately (FAO, 2007d). In non-mechanized farming systems, where women provide the bulk of farm labour, theincreased burden of agricultural work during the shortened growing seasons could haveadverse consequences for women’s health and ability to provide adequate care to theirfamilies, owing to a variety of factors such as lack of nutritious food and inadequate andinappropriate health care. In addition, women may not be able to produce enough to feedeveryone in the family, so they will eat last, after the men and the boys. Agriculturalmechanization and gender-appropriate machinery can provide some relief. Studies for Europe indicate that owing to the long-term effects of climate change, croppingpatterns and crop yields can be expected to change, but not necessarily decrease (Audsley etal., 2005). In a given location, when climate variations differ over the years, farmers are likelyto try to adapt to experienced worst-case scenarios. One of the farmers’ first responses toshort-term climate variability will be adaptation of working capacity, meaning an increase inhuman workload or, in mechanized systems, in equipment capacity. However, in food-insecure areas, such as sub-Saharan Africa, the prevailing farm power source is manuallabour, which is already limited by the HIV/AIDS pandemic and subsequent deaths of able-bodied men and women. The manual labour resources for additional requirements aretherefore not available. Instead, existing labour bottlenecks would be tightened further, withdifferent consequences for men and women, whose specific needs must be taken intoconsideration (IFAD and FAO, 2003). As a consequence of increased bottlenecks for timely field operations, higher investmentin farm power and equipment capacity is needed, if yield reductions and possible crop failureor harvest loss are to be avoided. The irregular nature of climate variation makes it difficult toquantify its actual impacts, however.Box 4. Adaptation by small-scale tea farmers in South AfricaIn South Africa, small-scale rooibos tea farmers in the Suid Bokkeveld, near Nieuwvoudville in the NorthernCape, are involved in a project that aims to increase their resilience to climate change, specifically drier, hotterconditions and more frequent droughts. Workshops have been held with the farmers to supply them withinformation about the expected climate for the season and provide an opportunity to discuss how to respond.Participants also visited other rooibos farms in the area to see what works for them. Technologies that help torespond better to existing and expected climate variability include wind erosion barriers, and methods forenhancing soil moisture and maintaining biodiversity, such as establishing mulch strips on which belts ofnatural vegetation can be grown to act as wind breaks. Farmers have also started intercropping wild rooiboswith other cultivars and trying to ensure that harvests are sustainable.Source: Archer et al., in press. 57

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Climate change and food security: a framework documentProviding incentives through payments for environmental services: All the measuresdiscussed in this document are technically feasible, but important socio-economic obstaclesneed to be overcome for them to be adopted on the required scale. Incentives to make theadoption of good mitigation and adaptation practices attractive are often lacking. Optionsinclude improved information, technology transfer, favourable regulations and both positiveand negative monetary incentives, such as polluter- and user-pays principles and the removalof perverse incentives, such as production subsidies. Devising innovative financialinstruments for environmental service payments will also be important. Although farmers’ adoption of good mitigation and adaptation practices can create on-farm benefits such as increased crop yields, the adoption of such practices on a wider scaledepends on the extent to which farmers are affected by the environmental consequences oftheir current practices and on the incentives that exist to make the switch to alternativepractices attractive. Farmers may also need additional knowledge and resources for investingin such practices. In the 2007 issue of The State of Food and Agriculture (FAO, 2007g), FAO presents theargument for paying farmers for environmental services to encourage them to make adaptivechanges in their agricultural practices. The idea is that the value of mitigating and adapting toclimate change needs to be established through the operation of market forces. If a globalmarket for environmental services emerges, it will have macrolevel implications for food,land and labour markets, which have yet to be analysed (Zilberman, Lipper and McCarthy,forthcoming).Creating off-farm employment opportunities and planning for human migration: Otheradaptations could support access to food through improving off-farm household incomes. Inareas where farming is no longer feasible owing to low or uncertain rainfall and increasingtemperatures, or where agricultural employment opportunities are declining, the most suitableadaptation might be to develop off-farm sources of income. Support for small businessdevelopment would be an appropriate strategy, which would enable people to shift fromproducing to purchasing food. Farmers might also benefit from better access to credit andmarkets, and there have been recent developments in supporting weather-indexed insurancefor small-scale farmers. Other adaptations might be to stop farming and find alternativeincome-generating projects or migrate to find work. Migration often occurs in response todrought and flood events, with migrants remitting money back to villages to sustain theirextended families.58

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Protecting food security through mitigation of climate change3. PROTECTING FOODSECURITY THROUGHMITIGATION OF CLIMATECHANGEIn the long term, mitigating climate change will be critical to avoiding future breakdowns infood and livelihood systems and sharp increases in the number of food-insecure peopleworldwide. Historically, land conversion from forest to pasture- or cropland, and intensivecrop and livestock production practices have been important sources of greenhouse gasemissions. Food systems also have enormous potential to mitigate climate change, however,particularly at the production end of the food chain. Moreover, many of the most effectivemitigation measures also represent highly effective adaptation strategies, especially forcommercial agriculture. Investing in wider adoption of best practices for mitigation in the food and agriculturesector could therefore have multiple payoffs for food security, including contributing to thestability of global food markets and providing new employment opportunities in thecommercial agriculture sector, as well enhancing the sustainability of vulnerable livelihoodsystems. Such practices include:x reducing emissions of CO2, such as through reduction in the rate of land conversion and deforestation, better control of wildfires, adoption of alternatives to the burning of crop residues after harvest, reduction of emissions from commercial fishing operations, and more efficient energy use by forest dwellers, commercial agriculture and agro-industries;x reducing emissions of methane and nitrous oxide, such as through improved nutrition for ruminant livestock, more efficient management of livestock waste and of irrigation water on rice paddies, more efficient applications of nitrogen fertilizer on cultivated fields, and reclamation of treated municipal wastewater for aquifer recharge and irrigation;x sequestering carbon, such as through improved management of soil organic matter, with conservation agriculture involving permanent organic soil cover, minimum mechanical soil disturbance and crop rotation (which also saves on fossil fuel usage); improved management of pastures and grazing practices on natural grasslands, including by optimizing stock numbers and rotational grazing; introduction of integrated agroforestry systems that combine crops, grazing lands and trees in ecologically sustainable ways: use of degraded, marginal lands for productive planted forests or other cellulose biomass for alternative fuels; and carbon sink tree plantings. According to the most recent data released by IPCC, clearing of forested area foragriculture accounted for 17.4 percent of total greenhouse gas emissions in 2000, withemissions from intensive crop and livestock production contributing another 13.5 percent(Figure 14). By contrast, studies carried out by the World Resources Institute (WRI) indicatethat energy sector emissions attributable to agricultural and food processing use of fossil fuelsaccount for only 2.4 percent of greenhouse gas emissions (WRI, 2006). The share of totaltransportation emissions attributable to food system activities is not identified, but as total 59

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Climate change and food security: a framework documentemissions for all forms of transport for all purposes came to just 13.1 percent, the partattributable to transport of food commodities and products is likely to be low. In the United Kingdom, the Carbon Trust, established in 2001 with government funding,has promoted the concept of the “carbon footprint”. By undertaking a carbon investigation oftheir supply chains, all businesses can minimize the carbon emitted at every stage of aproduct’s life cycle, from source to shelf, consumption and disposal. The total amount ofcarbon emitted to arrive at a final product is that product’s carbon footprint (Carbon Trust).Figure 14. Contributions of agriculture and forestry to greenhouse gas emissions Greenhouse gas emissions by sector in 2004 Energy 25.9 Industry 19.4 Forestry 17.4 Agriculture 13.5 Transport 13.1 Buildings 7.9 Waste and wastewater 2.8Source: Adapted from IPCC, 2007b. Application of this concept to the food system has led some to argue that food productsimported from developing to developed countries, particularly horticultural productstransported by air, should not be traded because of their high carbon footprints. However, theprincipal suppliers of these foods are small-scale farmers who are just emerging intocommercial markets, whose livelihood systems are still precarious and whose household foodsecurity would be seriously jeopardized if new overseas market opportunities were suddenlydenied them. Moreover, as already described, the carbon footprint of food processing and transport isnegligible compared with the emissions generated by production processes in the foodsystem. Therefore, although there are opportunities for reducing the carbon footprint of foodat all stages of the food chain, the focus of mitigation efforts in the food system should be onintroducing agricultural production practices that reduce emissions or increase carbonsequestration.REDUCING EMISSIONSGood options exist for reducing the current level of agriculture-related emissions and, in theprocess, introducing more sustainable farming practices that strengthen ecosystem resilienceand provide more security for agriculture-based livelihoods in the face of increased climaticvariability. These are discussed in the following sections.Reducing agricultural and forestry emissions of carbon dioxideThe primary source of carbon emissions in the food and agriculture sector is land conversionfrom forested area to cultivated or grazing land. Carbon emissions can be reduced throughmore efficient energy use by mechanized agriculture and agro-industries, and throughadoption of alternatives to the common practice of burning crop residues after harvest.However, the amounts involved are minor compared with the potential contribution thatreducing the rate of deforestation could make. As already noted, intentional land conversion and deforestation, also referred to asanthropogenic land-use change, currently accounts for an important share of greenhouse gas60

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Protecting food security through mitigation of climate changeemissions. Moreover, the reduction in global forested area caused by land clearing andunsustainable logging (in which cut trees are not replaced with new plantings) has reduced thecapacity of the world’s forests to store carbon. Evidence shows that Amazon deforestation,related to agricultural expansion for livestock grazing and the production of livestock feedand biofuel crops, already contributes substantially to global anthropogenic CO2 emissions(Carvalho et al., 2004). Continued intensification of the global livestock industry and growingdemand for liquid biofuel crops will create additional pressure to clear tropical forestsworldwide unless policies are put in place to manage the process sustainably. UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol recognize the potential role of forests in providing avariety of adaptive ecosystem services in addition to mitigating climate change throughcarbon sequestration. These services include biodiversity preservation, watershed protectionon mountain slopes, control of desertification, and maintenance of the environmental integrityof fragile coastal zones. However, current rates of forest degradation and deforestation arethreatening the capacity of the world’s forests to perform these multiple roles. Cyclical loss and regrowth of trees and forests is a natural process. Forests are regularlyravaged by the spread of plant pests and fire. Natural fires maintain forest health by clearingaway dense brush and dead wood and allowing new growth to emerge; they are also part ofthe life cycles of some species. The natural burning of trees and other organic matter releasesCO2 into the atmosphere, while the decay of dead plants produces methane. These emissionsof greenhouse gases are normally compensated for by the process of photosynthesis in livingplants, especially the new vegetation that springs up on cleared land and needs CO2 in orderto grow. In recent times, however, a still largely uncontrolled process of deforestationresulting from human activity has been altering this natural balance. Changes in temperature ranges and precipitation, attributable to climate change, can harmforests further. Droughts and forest fires are expected to increase, with devastating effects onforests that are already stressed by human activity. There are indications that the Amazon isdrying out, which could lead to dangerous fires and desertification. Invasive insect speciesmay also damage forest health. Insects’ role in boreal ecology is to decompose litter, supplyfood for birds and small animals and eliminate diseased trees, but insect attacks are likely toincrease in frequency and intensity as established forests succumb to the physiological stressassociated with warmer weather (Greenpeace Online). In Canada, for example, more than 12million ha of forests have been lost in recent years, owing to mountain pine beetle attacks,which are more common when winters are mild. Forests’ capacity to play their natural role in maintaining climatic stability is closely linkedto food systems’ response to the challenge of climate change. To slow down and eventuallyreverse the still largely uncontrolled deforestation process, forest clearing, grazing in forestedareas, cutting of trees for fuelwood and commercial logging must all become plannedactivities, based on trade-offs between benefits and costs at different spatial and temporalscales. Action is needed on several fronts, especially through an integrated approach thatsimultaneously addresses the global demand for additional land to produce food and fuel, thedependence on forests as a source of livelihood for many rural people in developing countries,and the economic value of ecosystem services provided by forests. The actions requiredinclude creating economic alternatives to reduce the incentive for clearing forests or usingforest resources unsustainably, promoting second-generation biofuels to avoid land clearingfor biofuel crops, and enforcing more strictly the regulations that discourage potentialinvestors from setting wildfires to clear land for commercial development. Controlling frontier expansion in tropical rain forests can make an important contributionto climate change mitigation, but often the sole option for preserving forested area is throughintensifying agricultural production on the better land. It has been demonstrated that whenintensification involves increased fertilizer inputs, the related emission increases are far lessthan the avoided emissions of organic carbon from the forests that have been preserved (Vlek,Rodriguez-Kuhl and Sommer, 2004). Use of carbon offset schemes to pay rural households for sustainable management of theforested areas that they rely on for fuel and other forest products can provide the incentive to 61

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Climate change and food security: a framework documentstop them cutting wood to sell as timber, fuelwood or charcoal. To be effective, however, thisapproach needs to be accompanied by public or private sector investment in alternativesources of timber and cooking fuel to meet the growing demand.Reducing agricultural emissions of methane and nitrous oxideDigestive processes and wastes from ruminant livestock that eat a great deal of fibrousmaterial are an important source of methane, especially in intensive production units, wherelarge numbers of animals are concentrated in relatively small spaces. Worldwide, ruminantlivestock are the largest source of methane from human-related activities (EPA Online).Through the process of enteric fermentation, which is unique to ruminant animals such ascattle, sheep and goats, unused carbon is released in the form of methane during the digestionof fibrous materials in the diet. Methane emissions from animal manure are also considerable,and increasing rapidly. These two sources account for 60 percent of agricultural emissions ofmethane and about 30 percent of total anthropogenic methane emissions. The other mainsource of agricultural methane is rice, accounting for almost 40 percent of agriculturalmethane emissions and about 20 percent of all human-caused methane emissions (GHGOnline a). Although nitrous oxide is a relatively less important greenhouse gas in terms of share, it ishighly potent, and derives almost entirely from manure, cultivated soils that have beenfertilized with organic matter or inorganic compounds containing nitrogen, and nitrogen-fixing legumes. The following sections discuss methods for minimizing emissions of methaneand nitrous oxide from agricultural activities.Reducing methane emissions from ruminant livestock: Methane emissions per animal andper unit of livestock product are high when the animals’ diet is poor (EPA Online). Range-fedbeef cows are the most important source of methane from enteric fermentation because theyare very large animals, even compared with dairy cows; their diets, consisting mainly offorages of varying quality, are generally poorer than those in the dairy or feedlot sectors; thelevel of management is usually not as good; and the beef cow population is very large. Bettergrazing management and dietary supplementation have been identified as the most effectiveways of reducing emissions from this sector because they improve animal nutrition andreproductive efficiency. There are several technologies for reducing methane release from enteric fermentation.The basic principle is to increase the digestibility of feedstuffs, by either modifying feed ormanipulating the digestive process. Most ruminants in developing countries, particularly inAfrica and south Asia, have a very fibrous diet. Technically, these diets are relatively easy toimprove through the use of feed additives or supplements. However, such techniques areoften beyond the reach of smallholder livestock producers, who lack the capital, andsometimes the knowledge, to implement changes. Often, technical improvements may not beeconomical, such as where there is lack of demand or insufficient infrastructure. Even inAustralia, for example, many opportunities to reduce emissions, such as through dietary fatsupplementation or increased grain feeding, are not part of the low-cost range-fed dairysystem, which focuses on per hectare rather than per cow production (Eckard, Dalley andCrawford, 2000) Another approach is to increase the level of starch or rapidly fermentable carbohydrates inthe diet, thereby reducing excess hydrogen and the subsequent formation of methane. Thesetoo are measures that extensive range-fed production systems may not be able to adoptwithout external support, but national or regional planning strategies in areas where suchsystems are important could promote change. More advanced technologies that are beingstudied but are not currently operational would be applicable to free-ranging ruminants. Livestock fed on improved diets produce more milk and meat per animal. This increasedproduction efficiency reduces the amount of methane emitted per unit of production and thesize of the herd required to produce a given level of product. Because many developingcountries are striving to increase production from ruminant animals (primarily milk and62

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Protecting food security through mitigation of climate changemeat), improvements in production efficiency are urgently needed to meet goals whileavoiding increase methane emissions. In the United States, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) reports that moreefficient livestock production has already led to increased milk production, and methaneemissions have decreased over the last several decades (EPA Online). Technically speaking,the potential for efficiency gains – and therefore for methane reductions – is even larger forbeef and other ruminant meat production, which is typically based on poorer management,including inferior diets. Better grazing management and dietary supplementation have beenidentified as effective ways of improving efficiency and reducing emissions from this sector. In evaluating the emission reductions obtained from dietary modifications, it is importantto consider that the feed and feed supplements used to enhance productivity and reducemethane emissions may have considerable embodied greenhouse gas emissions that have anegative affect on the balance. Increased reliance on mechanized production of feedgrains forboth ruminants and non-ruminants has made the livestock food chain more fossil fuel-intensive. Relying more on non-ruminant sources of animal protein (pigs, poultry, fish) in the dietcan mitigate emissions from enteric fermentation and contribute to food security byimproving the livelihoods of livestock-dependent households and adding diversity to the diet.Most of the increase in demand for animal protein to 2030 and beyond is projected to occur inemerging developing countries in Asia, where pig and poultry meat is preferred, so therelative share of beef in total animal protein consumption is likely to decline over time. Ifrising costs for water, feed and fuel trigger significant increases in the market price forruminant livestock products, the result could be a shift in consumer behaviour among thosewho currently prefer beef..Reducing methane emissions from rice: At between 50 and 100 million tonnes of methane ayear, rice agriculture is a large source of atmospheric methane, possibly the greatest of thehuman-incurred methane sources. The warm, waterlogged soil of rice paddies provides idealconditions for methanogenesis, and although some of the methane produced is usuallyoxidized by methanotrophs in the shallow overlying water, the vast majority is released intothe atmosphere (GHG Online b). As the world population increases, reducing rice agriculture remains largely untenable as astrategy for reducing methane emissions from paddy rice fields. However, substantial reductionsare possible through a more integrated approach to rice paddy irrigation and varietal selection.Many rice varieties can be grown under much drier conditions than those traditionally employed,with large reductions in methane emission without any loss in yield. Intermittent and/or alternatingdry-wet irrigation of rice fields can be employed with these varieties. Applying the principles of conservation agriculture to crops such as irrigated rice wouldprovide chances for reducing the water consumption of this cropping system and, by changingthe soil environment from mostly anaerobic to aerobic, could also make it easier to fine-tunethe irrigation pattern to reduce the emission of methane. There is also great potential forimproved varieties of rice that can produce much larger crops per area of rice paddy, therebyallowing for reduced areas of rice paddies without reducing production. The addition ofcompounds that favour the activity of other microbial groups over that of the methanogens,such as ammonium sulphate, has proved successful under some conditions.Reducing methane emissions from manure: Although manure is the residue from animals’digestive processes – so is a waste product – it contains important amounts of nitrogen,phosphates and potassium that provide valuable soil nutrients when applied to farmers’ fields.Poor manure management can increase the loss of pollutants to the environment, however.Nitrogen in manures can be lost as nitrate, nitrous oxide (a greenhouse gas) or ammonia (aconstituent of acid rain and a cause of terrestrial eutrophication). Phosphorus-rich manureparticles can be washed into watercourses, and can raise soil phosphorus contents to levelswhere phosphorus leaching begins. 63

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Climate change and food security: a framework document If manure is managed as a liquid substance, it decays and forms methane (University ofHertfordshire Online). In the wild, animal manure is spread over a wide area and decomposesaerobically in the oxygen in the natural environment. Intensive livestock rearing methodscause high concentrations of manure to build up in relatively small areas, however, leading toa predominance of anaerobic (oxygen-free) decomposition of the manure, which producesmethane (GHG Online c). There are options for managing manure in ways that do not contribute to greenhouse gasaccumulation. Methane is not released when manure is managed as a solid substance throughcomposting and drying, or is applied and worked into the fields without being left to stand.Moving away from intensive rearing methods to increased grazing time for animals, sogreater dispersal of their manure, also increases aerobic rather than anaerobic decompositionand reduces the rate of methane production. The temperature at which manure is stored can have a significant effect on methaneproduction. In farming systems where manure is stored in stables, such as in pig farms whereeffluents are stored in a pit in the cellar of the stable, emissions can be higher than whenmanure is stored outside at lower ambient temperatures. Greenhouse gas production can alsobe reduced through deep cooling of manure. Cooling of pig slurry can reduce indoor methaneand nitrous oxide emissions by 21 percent (Sommer, Peterson and Møller, 2004). Trapping the methane released by livestock manure, for example in slurry tanks, hasalready proved very successful in reducing methane emissions to the atmosphere. Therecovered methane, often called “biogas”, can be flared off as CO2 or used as a fuel. The capture and burning of methane released from animal wastes is an increasinglyapplied form of energy generation and forms the basis for several carbon reduction andtrading projects. Biogas is typically made up of 65 percent methane and 35 percent CO2, sothe combustion of methane releases CO2, but this is 23 times less noxious in terms of globalwarming impact than methane is. A further mitigation dividend is obtained when combustionprovides an energy source to replace the use of fossil fuels. There are various storage systems for exploiting this huge potential, including covered lagoonsand other structures for liquid storage, such as pits and tanks. These are suitable for large- orsmall-scale systems and cover a wide range of technological options and degrees of sophistication.Covered lagoons and biogas systems produce a slurry that reduces methane emission whenapplied to rice fields, instead of untreated dung (Mendis and Openshaw. 2004). The wider use of biogas systems (either for generating energy for on-farm use or fordelivering electricity to the public net) depends on the relative prices of other energy sources.Until recently, biogas systems have not usually been competitive without subsidies, apartfrom in remote locations where electricity and other forms of energy are unavailable orunreliable. However, interest in this source of energy is growing. It is assumed that manure emissions in cool climates could be reduced by 50 percentthrough adoption of an alternative management option to replace the storage of manure asliquid slurry in open pits. In warmer climates, where methane emissions from liquid slurry areestimated to be more than three times as high (IPCC, 2007b), a reduction potential of 75percent is considered reasonable.Reducing nitrous oxide emissions from agricultural soils: A major direct source of nitrousoxide from agricultural soils is the widespread increase in the use of synthetic nitrate-basedfertilizers, driven by the need for greater crop yields and by more intensive farming practices.Where large applications of these fertilizers are combined with irrigation practices thatsaturate soils, the resulting lack of oxygen in the soil produces conditions that are favourableto anaerobic conversion of solid nitrates and nitrites into nitrogen-containing gases(denitrification) and release of large amounts of nitrous oxide into the atmosphere. The widespread and often poorly controlled use of animal waste as fertilizer can also leadto substantial emissions of nitrous oxide from agricultural soils. The ammonia in urea-basedfertilizers and manures vaporizes when exposed to the air. Ammonia, a compound containingnitrogen and hydrogen, can also be a source of nitrous oxide through volatilization followingfertilizer application or during storage of manure.64

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Protecting food security through mitigation of climate change Some additional nitrous oxide is thought to arise from agricultural soils through theplanting of leguminous crops that fix nitrogen, but the importance of this source is not yetclear. Nitrogen leaching and runoff from agricultural soils is another source of nitrous oxideemissions. After fertilizer application or heavy rain, large amounts of nitrogen may leachfrom the soil into drainage ditches, streams, rivers and eventually estuaries. Part of the nitrousoxide produced in agricultural soils is emitted to the atmosphere as soon as drainage water isexposed to the air, and another part is deposited in aquatic and estuarine sediments andemitted from there after undergoing denitrification (GHG Online d). Net nitrogen use in farming affects climate change, because it is linked to nitrous oxideemissions, and water pollution, because nitrates pollute soil, fresh and marine waters. Net nitrogenuse can be measured relatively easily by recording the amounts of nitrogenous fertilizers andmanures that are used on the farm, adding the nitrogen estimated to be fixed by legumes, andsubtracting the nitrogen harvested in the crop and by-products. The net climate change impact iscalculated by deducting the sequestration of greenhouse gases absorbed by the additional plantgrowth caused by fertilizer use from the temperature-forcing impacts of nitrogen fertilizers. The best way to manage human interference in the nitrogen cycle is to maximize theefficiency of nitrogen uses (Smil, 1999). Better targeting of fertilizer applications, in bothspace and time, can significantly reduce releases of nitrous oxides from agricultural soils.Land management strategies that consider the optimum amounts of fertilizer necessary formaximum crop yield and minimum waste are crucial, both environmentally andeconomically. The exact form of nitrogen-based fertilizer and the best time of year to use itare other key factors on which to base fertilization campaigns. Rapid incorporation and shallow injection of livestock wastes reduce nitrogen loss to theatmosphere by at least 50 percent, and deep injection into the soil essentially eliminates the loss(Rotz, 2004). Crop rotations that efficiently recycles these nutrients, and fertilizer applicationsnear to when they are needed by crops reduce the potential for further loss. RICMS uses a varietyof these methods to increase the efficiency of nitrogen fertilizer in rice production. Options for reducing emissions from grazing systems are also important. Addingnitrification inhibitors to urea or ammonium fertilizer compounds before application cansubstantially reduce emissions of nitrous oxide (Monteny, Bannink and Chadwick, 2006). Onpastures, this technology inhibits the production of nitrous oxide from animal urine (Di andCameron, 2003). Balanced feeding is also important; for example, feed that is high in nitrogenwill produce manure with high nitrogen content, which emits greater levels of nitrous oxidethan manure with low nitrogen content does. Land drainage is another option for reducing nitrous oxide emissions before nitrogenenters the next phase of the nitrogen cascade. The compacting of soil by traffic, tillage andgrazing livestock can reduce its oxygen content and enhance conditions for denitrification.Reducing soil wetness through better drainage can increase oxygen content and may reducenitrous oxide emission significantly, especially in more humid environments.SEQUESTERING CARBONAlthough it can take much longer for carbon to be released from the atmosphere than it takesfor it to get there (Doney and Schimel, 2007), carbon capture and sequestration can slowglobal warming significantly, even if emissions continue to increase. What matters is theamount of carbon that is added to the atmosphere per year, compared with the carbonsequestered in addition to the historical average per year. As Table 7 shows, the global terrestrial carbon sequestration potential is about 4.5 to 5 billiontonnes per year, compared with net releases into the atmosphere of about 3.5 billion tonnes peryear for the period 1980 to 1989 (UNEP-GRID-Arendal). In response to this imbalance, land isbeing set aside for the creation of carbon sinks in new-growth forests, grasslands are beingrehabilitated and conservation agriculture on cultivated soils is being promoted as importantclimate mitigation measures. Because the creation of sinks involves changes in land and forestmanagement practices and difficult land-use policy decisions, the food and agriculture sector willbe critical for the success or failure of many carbon sink initiatives. 65

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Climate change and food security: a framework documentTABLE 7Global terrestrial carbon sequestration potential Carbon sink Potential (billion tonnes per year) Arable lands 0.850.90 Biomass crops for biofuel 0.500.80 Grasslands and rangelands 1.701.70 Forests 1.002.00 Total 4.055.40Source: adapted from Rice, 1999. Carbon sequestration involves increasing the carbon storage in terrestrial systems, aboveor below ground. The main thrust of efforts to use agriculture to manage greenhouse gases hasso far been to increase above-ground sequestration, primarily through planting trees, whichallows large per-hectare amounts of carbon to be sequestered. New-growth forests are anespecially important form of carbon sink, because of the amount of carbon dioxide that theyabsorb. Recent studies have shown that well-managed grasslands and conservation agriculture canwork as well or better as techniques for sequestering carbon (Mannetje, L.’t. 2006). If thecarbon stock in soils has been depleted as a consequence of past land-use changes andagricultural activities, changes in soil management practices can trigger a process of carbonaccumulation below ground, over time. Eventually, the system reaches a new carbon stockequilibrium or saturation point, and no new carbon is absorbed, but until then carbonsequestration is low-cost and can be readily implemented. Practices that increase carbon sequestration have additional benefits, including increasedroot biomass, soil organic matter, water and nutrient retention capacity and, hence, landproductivity. Investments in improved land management leading to increased soil fertility andcarbon sequestration can often be justified by their contributions to agronomic productivity,national economic growth, food security and biodiversity conservation (FAO, 2004a). This section explores four feasible options for carbon sequestration: reforestation andafforestation, rehabilitating degraded grasslands, rehabilitating cultivated soils, and promotingconservation agriculture. Enhancing carbon sequestration in degraded drylands and mountainslopes by any of these methods could have direct environmental, economic and social benefitsfor local people, with consequent improvement in their food security status.Reforestation and afforestationReforestation involves planting new trees in existing forested areas where old treess havebeen cut or burned; afforestation involves planting stands of trees on land that is not currentlyclassified as forest. Sustainable forest management requires that a new tree be planted forevery tree cut down by logging, fuelwood gathering or land clearing activities. At the globallevel, however, meaningful carbon sequestration through reforestation and afforestationwould require that more new trees be planted each year than were lost to deforestation in theprevious year. Farmers, commercial logging companies, industrial roundwood producers and fuelwoodplantation managers all have the possibility to plant large numbers of new trees as part of theirnormal operations. Public sector programmes to replant forested areas that have beendestroyed by wildfires or arson can also be managed so that they add to the global carbon sinkreserve. Areas that have been intentionally converted from forest to other land uses need to betransformed into stable agricultural areas as quickly as possible, so they are not left in thevulnerable transition period for too long. Cleared land is at high risk of erosion and loss ofsoil moisture, so fast-growing cover crops should be planted as soon as possible after clearing,even if they are subsequently replaced by something else. In addition to reducing the risk of66

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Protecting food security through mitigation of climate changeerosion, these crops will absorb some CO2 and can later be ploughed under to enhance thefertility and water-retention capacity of the soil. Increasing the extent of protected areas and natural parks is another way of augmentingcarbon stores. Preserving forests is therefore a vital part of any strategy to mitigate climatechange. For example, Greenpeace estimates that the Canadian and Russian boreal forestsalone hold 40 percent of the world’s terrestrial carbon stocks. In addition, protected areas andnatural parks such as mangrove swamps in southeast Asia or wildlife reserves in southernAfrica can be managed by local people in ways that simultaneously improve their livelihoods,sequester carbon, preserve biodiversity and provide residues for second-generation biofuels. Forest-dependent people and vulnerable people living on degraded land can provide forest-related environmental services with carbon sequestration potential, as long as appropriatecompensation is paid. Such services include the incorporation of reforestation andafforestation in sustainable upper watershed management schemes, and the introduction ofintegrated agroforestry farming systems that include planting fast-maturing tree crops andwoodlots to prevent soil erosion, restore the soil’s water retention capacity and contribute tofarm income, as well as sequestering carbon.Rehabilitating degraded grasslandsRain forests and grasslands (or rangelands as they are also called) are the world’s lastremaining land resources still to exist in more or less their natural state. Both are in danger ofdegradation and disappearance through inappropriate use, overexploitation and destruction,posing a major threat to the capacity of the earth’s climate system to mitigate global warming(FAO, 2007e). Grasslands in semi-arid, increasingly overpopulated regions, such as in Africa,Central Asia, northern China and Mongolia, are in even greater danger than rain forests,because they are subject to regular droughts, intense cropping, overgrazing and fuelwooddepletion, leading to degradation and desertification (Mannetje, 2002, cited in FAO, 2007e). Grasslands cover about 25 percent of the world’s surface and contribute to the livelihoodsof more than 800 million people, including many poor smallholders and pastoralists. In thisecosystem, vegetation and large herbivorous mammals have co-evolved to keep the system inequilibrium. Scattered stands of trees form a natural part of the ecosystem, but there are noclosed forests. Grasslands are particularly adapted for grazing livestock, and pastoral farmingsystems are important, especially in more arid parts. Mixed farming systems are alsoimportant. However, overgrazing, reduction of fallow, water scarcity and cutting of trees forfuel and timber are degrading the land, creating energy scarcities and increasing theprevalence of poverty and food insecurity for many rural people. With better management,these grasslands can produce feedstocks for manufacturing biofuel for local markets, givetheir inhabitants more secure and sustainable livelihoods that will be resilient in variable anduncertain weather conditions, and provide carbon sequestration services to the world. Several aspects of dryland soils work in favour of carbon sequestration in arid regions. Drysoils are less likely to lose carbon than wet soils, as lack of water limits soil mineralizationand therefore the flux of carbon into the atmosphere. As a result, carbon’s residence time indryland soils is long, sometimes even longer than it is in forest soils. Although carbonsequestration in these regions occurs at low rates, it may be cost-effective, particularly takinginto account all the side-benefits resulting from soil improvement and restoration (FAO,2004a). Improved grassland management through the incorporation of trees, improved species,fertilization and other measures can reverse carbon losses, lead to net sequestration and yieldadditional benefits, particularly by preserving/restoring biodiversity. In 1991, up to 71 percentof the world’s grasslands were reported to be degraded to some extent (Dregne, Kassa andRzanov, 1991). Given the large extent of drylands, and the fact that degradation processeshave caused carbon levels in dryland soils to drop well below the saturation point, drylandshave a great potential for carbon sequestration. Overgrazing is the greatest cause of degradation in grasslands, and the overriding human-influenced factor in determining their soil carbon levels. In many systems, improved grazing 67

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Climate change and food security: a framework documentmanagement practices, such as optimizing stock numbers and rotational grazing, willtherefore result in substantial increases in carbon pools. Among the many other technicaloptions are fire management, protection of land and set-asides, and enhancement of grasslandproduction, such as through fertilization and the introduction of deep-rooted/legume species.Models can indicate the respective effects of these practices in a particular situation. More severely degraded land requires landscape rehabilitation and erosion control. This ismore difficult, particularly from an economic perspective, but Australian research hasreported considerable success in rehabilitating landscape function by promoting the rebuildingof patches (Baker, Barnett and Howden, 2000). In many situations, improved pasturemanagement and integrated agroforestry systems that combine crops, grazing lands and treesin ecologically sustainable ways are effective in conserving the environment and mitigatingclimate change, while providing more diversified and secure livelihoods for inhabitants. The real potential for terrestrial soil carbon sequestration is uncertain, because data are lackingand there is insufficient understanding of the dynamics of soil organic carbon at all levels,including the molecular, the landscape, the regional and the global (Metting, Smith and Amthor,1999). Lal estimates the ecotechnological scope for soil carbon sequestration in drylandecosystems to be about 1 billion tonnes of carbon per year, but realization of this potential wouldrequire a “vigorous and a coordinated effort at a global scale towards desertification control,restoration of degraded ecosystems, conversion to appropriate land uses, and adoption ofrecommended management practices on cropland and grazing land” (Lal, 2004b). Dryland conditions offer very few economic incentives to invest in land rehabilitation foragricultural production. Compensation for carbon sequestration may tip the balance in somesituations, but significant local obstacles would need to be overcome before carbon creditschemes can be used to realize grasslands’ potential for mitigating climate change andsecuring more adequate and sustainable livelihoods for pastoral peoples. These obstaclesinclude the following:x Pastoral areas usually have less infrastructure and much lower population density than other rural areas.x Carbon credit schemes require communication among groups that are often distant from one another; cultural values will be both a constraint and an opportunity in pastoral lands.x The payment required to motivate pastoralists to change their grazing practices may be higher than the market can bear. (Reid et al., 2004 estimate that payments of US$10 per tonne of stored carbon would increase the income of extremely poor herders by only 15 percent; payments of US$65 would be required to lift them out of poverty.)x The government institutions required to implement such schemes often have insufficient strength and ability (Reid et al., 2004).Rehabilitating cultivated soilsThe relatively low CO2 emissions from arable land leave little scope for mitigation, but thereis great potential for net sequestration of carbon in cultivated soils. According to Lal, thecarbon sink capacity of the world’s agricultural and degraded soils is 50 to 66 percent of thetotal carbon loss since 1850 (Lal, 2004b). Under conventional cultivation practices, the conversion of natural systems to cultivatedagriculture results in soil organic carbon losses of about 20 to 50 percent compared with pre-cultivation stocks in the surface metre (Paustian et al., 1997). Non-conventional cultivationpractices allow soil quality to improve and soil organic carbon levels to increase. Suchpractices can be grouped into three classes: agricultural intensification, conservationagriculture and erosion reduction. Sustainable intensification practices include improvedcultivars, well-managed irrigation, organic and inorganic fertilization, management of soilacidity, green manure and cover crops in rotations, integrated pest management, doublecropping and crop rotation. Increased crop yields result in more carbon accumulation in cropbiomass, or alteration of the harvest index. The higher residue inputs associated with higher68

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Protecting food security through mitigation of climate changeyields favour enhanced soil carbon storage (Paustian et al., 1997). IPCC provides anindication of the “carbon gain rate” that can be obtained from some of these practices (IPCC,2007b). Table 8 suggests which common conventional soil management practice can bereplaced by which improved practice to restore soil quality and sequester carbon. These improved agricultural practices were developed to achieve the larger objectives of Agenda21 Chapter 14 – Sustainable agriculture and rural development – adopted by UNCED in Rio deJaneiro in 1992. Efforts to promote them have demonstrated that farmers will decide whether or notto adopt an improved practice depending on the expected net returns, in the context of existingagricultural and environmental policies. Although farmers’ adoption of the practices brings such on-farm benefits as increased crop yields, these benefits must result in an overall net improvement tofarmers’ livelihoods, otherwise the improved practices will not be widely accepted.Promoting conservation agricultureConventional tillage involves the use of mechanical implements to break up the soil. The simplestsuch implement is the hand hoe. Mechanized soil tillage allows higher working depths and speedsand involves the use of such implements as tractor-drawn ploughs, disk harrows and rotarycultivators. This initially increases fertility because it mineralizes soil nutrients and makes it easierfor plants to absorb them through their roots. In the long term, however, repeated ploughing andmechanical cultivation breaks down the soil structure and leads to reduced soil organic matter andloss of soil nutrients. This structural degradation of soils results in compaction and the formationof crusts, leading to soil erosion. This process is dramatic under tropical climatic situations, butcan also be noticed all over the world. The heavy machinery used for tillage in intensive cropagriculture has particularly detrimental effects on soil structure. The logical approach to this is to reduce tillage. Movements promoting conservationtillage, especially zero-tillage, first emerged in southern Brazil, North America, New Zealandand Australia. Over the last two decades, the technologies have been improved and adaptedfor nearly all farm sizes, soils, crop types and climatic zones. Experience is still being gainedwith this new approach to agriculture, which FAO has supported for many years. Conservation agriculture is based on enhancing natural biological processes above andbelow ground. Interventions such as mechanical soil tillage are reduced to an absoluteminimum, and external inputs such as agrochemicals and nutrients of mineral or organicorigin are applied at optimum levels and in ways and quantities that do not interfere with ordisrupt biological processes.TABLE 8Agricultural practices for enhancing productivity and increasing the amount ofcarbon in soils Conventional practice Recommended practice Plough tilling Conservation tilling or zero-tillage Residue removal or burning Residue return as mulch Summer fallow Growing cover crops Low off-farm inputs Judicious use of fertilizers and integrated nutrient management Regular fertilizer use Site-specific soil management No water control Water management/conservation, irrigation, water table management Fence-to-fence utilization Conversion of marginal lands to nature conservation Monoculture Improved farming systems with several crop rotations Land use along poverty lines and Integrated watershed management political boundaries Draining wetlands Restoring wetlandsSource: FAO. 2004a. 69

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Climate change and food security: a framework document Intensive cultivation with tractors and ploughs is a major cause of soil erosion and landdegradation in many developing countries, especially where the topsoil is thin. As well asreducing tillage, the farmers who adopt conservation agriculture also keep a protective soilcover of leaves, stems and stalks from the previous crop, which shields the soil surface fromheat, wind and rain, keeps soils cooler and reduces moisture losses by evaporation. Lesstillage also means lower fuel and labour costs, and farmers need to spend less on heavymachinery. In zero-tillage agriculture, the soil is never turned over, and soil quality ismaintained entirely by the continuous presence of a cover crop. Crop rotation over severalseasons is essential to minimize the outbreak of pests and diseases (EuropaWorld, 2001). Conservation agriculture increases soil organic matter, and this in turn increases theamount of carbon stored in the soil. Under conventional tillage, this carbon is metabolized bysoil microorganisms into CO2. Experiences with conservation agriculture so far show that theincrease in soil organic matter continues for about 30 years, before levelling out to a newequilibrium, which generally corresponds to the organic matter content of the virgin soil,before it was taken under cultivation. In some cases however, the organic matter content canexceed this original level, where other land amelioration techniques have improved theproduction potential of the land compared with the virgin soil. The global application of conservation agriculture could result in a total sequestration ofup to 3 billion tonnes of carbon per year, for about 30 years; this is nearly the equivalent ofthe atmospheric net increase in CO2 of anthropogenic origin. Soil carbon sequestration can beincreased further when cover crops are used in combination with conservation tillage, butbecause many of these cover crops are nitrogen fixers, the additional nitrous oxide that theyrelease is obviously detrimental. Overall, FAO projections suggest that the global area of rainfed land under zero-tillage/conservation agriculture could increase considerably. If these projections materialize –although it is by no means certain that they will – the results would be such benefits asreduced soil erosion, smaller losses of plant nutrients, higher rainfall infiltration and bettersoil moisture-building capacity, making a significant contribution to mitigating the impacts ofclimate change (FAO, 2003b: 344). Similar conclusions have been reached by other scientificresearch teams engaged in projecting the impact of climate change on agriculture, notablythose of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) (Rosegrant, Agcaoli-Sombilla and Perez, 1995; Scherer and Yadav, 1996).70

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The way forward4. THE WAY FORWARDTHE INSTITUTIONAL SETTING FOR ADDRESSING FOODSECURITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE LINKAGESThe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeRecognizing climate change as a potential global problem, WMO and UNEP establishedIPCC in 1988; the first IPCC Assessment Report was completed in 1990. Since then, IPCChas issued three more reports, each deepening the scientific understanding of climate changeprocesses and their implications for the earth system. The fourth IPCC Assessment Report,released in September 2007, generated much public interest and raised climate change issuesto the top of the international political agenda.The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, its Conferenceof the Parties, the Kyoto Protocol and the Nairobi Worlk ProgrammeLargely based on the findings contained in the first IPCC report, UNFCCC was negotiatedand adopted in New York in time for signature at UNCED in Rio de Janeiro in June 1992.UNFCCC entered into force in 1994, and provides the overall policy framework foraddressing climate change issues. All the governments that have ratified it belong to theConference of the Parties (COP), which meets annually to review global climate policy andoversee implementation of agreed mitigation and adaptation measures. In 1997 the Kyoto Protocol to UNFCCC was adopted. This is an international and legallybinding agreement to reduce greenhouse gases emissions worldwide, which entered into forcein 2005 on ratification by the required number of parties to UNFCCC. The most importantaspect of the Kyoto Protocol is its legally binding commitments for 39 developed countries toreduce their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by an average of 5.2 percent relative to 1990levels. These emission reductions must be achieved by 2008–2012, the so-called “firstcommitment period”. In 2001, the seventh COP acknowledged that least-developed countries (LDCs) do nothave the means to deal with adaptation to climate change. It therefore established a workprogramme for supporting LDCs in the preparation and implementation of NationalAdaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs). The steps that a country typically takes to prepare a NAPA include (UNFCCC Online b):x synthesis of available information;x participatory assessment of vulnerability to current climate variability and extreme events and of areas where risks would increase as a result of climate change;x identification of key adaptation measures and criteria for prioritizing activities;x short profiles of projects and/or activities to address urgent and immediate adaptation needs in the country. The NAPA takes into account existing coping strategies at the grassroots level, and buildson these to identify priority activities that would benefit from further support, rather thanfocusing on scenario-based modelling to assess future vulnerability, and long-term policy atthe national level. The NAPA process gives prominence to community-level inputs as animportant source of information, recognizing that communities are the main stakeholders. In 2006, COP adopted the Nairobi Work Programme on Impacts, Vulnerability andAdaptation to Climate Change (NWP) as a basis for consolidating and intensifying adaptationefforts. NWP was developed to help countries improve their understanding of climate changeimpacts and their risk exposure, and to increase their ability to make informed decisions onhow to adapt successfully. It is an international framework implemented by parties to 71

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Climate change and food security: a framework documentUNFCCC, intergovernmental organizations, NGOs, the private sector, communities and otherstakeholders (UNFCCC Online a). At UNFCCC/COP’s annual meeting in Bali in December 2007, an opening round ofdiscussions was held on provisions to be included when the convention and Kyoto Protocolcome up for renewal in 2012. This served as an occasion to begin defining a global strategicresponse to both the immediate and the more distant impacts of climate change on humanwell-being – a process that will continue for the next five years.Agenda 21 and sustainable agriculture and rural developmentThe concept of sustainable development was introduced in the 1987 report of the WorldCommission on Environment and Development (the Brundtland Report) as a means ofshifting attention away from narrow sectoral interests towards an approach that embracesenvironmental, social and economic goals. This report provided the scientific underpinnings for UNCED. Popularly known as theEarth Summit, UNCED represented a turning point in the way in which environment anddevelopment are viewed. At the Earth Summit, world leaders adopted two formal treaties withbinding provisions – UNFCCC and the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity(CBD) – and three non-binding statements on the relationship between sustainableenvironmental practices and the pursuit of social and socio-economic development: the RioDeclaration, the Statement on Forest Principles, and Agenda 21 (CIESIN, 1996). Agenda 21 was intended as a blueprint for attaining sustainable development in thetwenty-first century. It provides a comprehensive action programme for attaining sustainabledevelopment and addressing both environmental and developmental issues in an integratedmanner at the global, national and local levels. Actions to address climate change are dealtwith in Chapter 9, Protecting the atmosphere, while Chapter 14 defines priority action areasfor achieving sustainable agriculture and rural development (SARD). Agenda 21, Chapter 9 recognizes that certain practices related to terrestrial and marineresources and land use can decrease greenhouse gas sinks and increase atmosphericemissions, and establishes, among others, the following objective:“(a) To promote terrestrial and marine resource utilization and appropriate land-use practices thatcontribute to:i. the reduction of atmospheric pollution and/or the limitation of anthropogenic emissions ofgreenhouse gases;ii .the conservation, sustainable management and enhancement, where appropriate, of all sinks forgreenhouse gases;iii. the conservation and sustainable use of natural and environmental resources.” (Agenda 21,Chapter 9) Agenda 21, Chapter 14 articulates the concept of SARD. It contains 12 action areas forachieving SARD (Agenda 21, Chapter 14), many of which are also priority action areas foradapting to climate change in the food and agriculture sector. Since 1992, a body ofknowledge about best practices and technologies has been developed for the purposes ofimplementing Agenda 21; these SARD best practices provide a menu of adaptation andmitigation options that could be adopted immediately, providing the requisite investmentresources are forthcoming. Practices that have been advocated in the past as good practicesfor SARD should not be excluded from the list of recommended options for responding toclimate change. The best options often involve innovative modifications of known goodpractices, rather than completely new solutions.Integrating adaptation and mitigationIPCC recognizes the merit of an integrated strategic response to climate change (IPCC,2007d), but because resources for mitigation and those for adaptation are managed throughdifferent funding mechanisms, they are still treated separately on the international climatepolicy agenda of UNFCC/COP and its subsidiary bodies. Nevertheless, although adaptation72

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The way forwardand mitigation are conceptually distinct, they are interdependent in practice, and both areequally urgent from a food security perspective. Managing the increasing risk as storms,floods and droughts become more frequent and intense is an immediate necessity. It is equallyimperative to begin adapting immediately to foreseeable shifts in agroclimatic zones, wateravailability and related changes in species composition and disease vectors, as it will taketime for appropriate adaptive practices to take effect. As there is still considerable uncertainty about how these more gradual changes are going toplay out, there is also a pressing need to improve the information base for selecting appropriateadaptation options. Rather than lack of appropriate technologies, it is institutional weakness thathas often been the main obstacle to adopting sustainable agricultural and rural developmentpractices. Adaptation of institutions, including customs and behaviours as well as laws, regulationsand formally constituted structures, may therefore be the priority in many situations. Mitigation is also a major concern because, if global warming is not brought under control,there could be large-scale disruptions of food systems in the future that the world is unable tomanage. In addition, the agriculture sector’s important contribution to emissions, and itsequally important potential contribution to emission reductions and carbon sequestration,mean that mitigation merits greater attention than it has hitherto received. In general,mitigation in the food and agriculture sector will be most feasible when it is linked to better-adapted agricultural practices, and this should be reflected in national strategies andprogrammes with the flexibility to implement an integrated approach.ACCESS TO FUNDSThe UNFCCC Climate Change Funds and the Global Environment FacilitySeveral funds within the United Nations system finance activities aimed at reducinggreenhouse gas emissions and increasing resilience to the negative impacts of climate change.The Global Environment Facility (GEF) was established in 1991 as an independent financialorganization providing grants to developing countries for projects that benefit the globalenvironment and promote sustainable livelihoods in local communities. In its role as a financing mechanism of UNFCCC, GEF supports mitigation and adaptationmeasures that generate global benefits through the GEF Trust Fund. GEF projects in climatechange help developing countries and economies in transition to contribute to the overallobjective of UNFCCC by reducing or avoiding greenhouse gas emissions in the areas ofrenewable energy, energy efficiency and sustainable transport, and by supportinginterventions that increase resilience to the adverse impacts of climate change in vulnerablecountries, sectors and communities (GEF Online). The GEF Secretariat administers two fundsunder UNFCCC that focus on development – the Special Climate Change Fund (SCCF) andthe Least Development Countries’ Fund (LDCF) –and will administer the start-up of theAdaptation Fund which has only just become operational (Box 5).Box 5: UNFCCC funding for climate change adaptation and mitigationSCCF finances adaptation activities, especially projects on water resources management, landmanagement, agriculture, health, infrastructure development, fragile ecosystems such as mountainecosystems, and coastal area integrated management. The current total for the fund is US$62 million.LDCF is dedicated to LDCs. It finances the same activities as SFCC. LDCs have access to expeditionprocedures for the approval of funding to support implementation of projects in the context of NAPAs.The current total for the fund is US$116 million.The Adaptation Fund is financed through a 2 percent share of the profits from CDM and financesadaptation projects and programmes in developing countries that are signatories of the Kyoto Protocol.The fund has only just started operations, but could become much larger than SCCF or LDCF.Source: GEF, 2007. 73

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Climate change and food security: a framework documentThe Clean Development MechanismCDM allows developed nations to achieve part of their emissions reduction obligations underthe Kyoto Protocol through projects in developing countries that offset greenhouse gasemissions. Greenhouse gas offsets may involve anything from low-carbon energy productionto energy efficiency measures, the destruction of such greenhouse gases as methane andnitrous oxide, tree planting or soil carbon enhancement activities. Rules and conditions forCDM projects are shown in Annex IV. The greenhouse gas benefits of each CDM project will be measured according tointernationally agreed methods and will be quantified in standard units – CERs. These areexpressed in tons of CO2 emission avoided. Such carbon credits can be bought and sold in anew global carbon market and are already becoming a commodity (CDM Capacity Online). Under CDM, although it is recognized that forms of land use other than forestry areintegral to the carbon cycle, only afforestation and reforestation activities are eligible forcredits. These activities may be large- or small-scale, involve single or multiple species, andbe implemented through either pure forestry or on-farm agroforestry systems. As the global carbon market evolves, it is likely to follow the path of much of foreigndirect investment over the past decades, with the bulk going to a dozen or so largerdeveloping countries with the infrastructure and institutions to handle large projects easily. Infact, projects approved thus far under the CDM have been mainly for low-carbon energyproduction in a few rapidly industrrializing developing countries.Other funding sourcesFor the vast majority of the poorer developing countries, the private sector is unlikely to paymuch attention unless steps are taken to attract CDM projects. This could be done by using:x portfolio investors, such as the Prototype Carbon Fund of the World Bank and other large financial institutions, which may wish to spread their projects around the developing world, especially in poorer developing countries where the private sector would not invest (CDM Capacity Online);x international development assistance funds to help poorer developing countries to build national capacity to develop and promote CDM projects (CDM Capacity Online);x the growing voluntary carbon market, in which businesses and consumers purchase greenhouse gas reductions instead of reducing their own emissions (Gillenwater et al., 2007). In addition, the development community has recently begun to consider climate change,and an increasing share of aid resources is likely to be allocated to adaptation measures thatare consistent with broader development objectives.FAO’s ROLEFAO possesses technical expertise relevant to climate change adaptation in a variety ofecosystems, including agro-ecosystems (crops, livestock, grasslands), forests and woodlands,inland waters, and coastal and marine ecosystems. It works to build national, local andcommunity-level capacities to raise awareness of and prepare for climate change impacts,assists member countries in identifying potential adaptation options and helps local peopleunderstand which are the most applicable to their particular circumstances. Since 2002, FAO has been promoting National and Regional Programmes for FoodSecurity (NPFS and RPFS) as instruments that help countries enhance productivity anddiversify the livelihoods of rural people on a scale sufficient to achieve the 2015 targets set byWFS and the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). In 2007, recognizing that climatechange is of critical importance for food security, FAO introduced guidelines forincorporating actions to mitigate and adapt to climate change in NPFS. In countries with both74

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The way forwardan NPFS and a NAPA, FAO will facilitate the inclusion of appropriate actions from theNAPA in the NPFS. Where there is no NAPA, FAO will provide necessary support forincorporating priority adaptation measures in the NPFS. FAO will also assist countries inintegrating forest-related climate change mitigation and adaptation measures into theirNAPAs, National Forest Programmes (NFPs) and other forest policy and planning processes. An important focus of FAO’s work is on achieving the last of the five expected outcomesof NWP: “enhanced integration of actions to adapt to climate change with those to achievesustainable development”. Rather than enforcing a pre-selected mitigation practice oradaptation option on any affected community or population group, the ultimate goal is toinform and promote local dialogue about the likely impacts of climate change and the optionsfor reducing vulnerability, and to provide local communities with site-specific solutions. The final word on the relationship between climate change and food security will therefore bewritten, not by FAO experts, but rather by the people whose lives are most immediately affectedand whose choices will determine whether their future will be more or less food-secure. 75

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AnnexesANNEX IIINTERNATIONALLY AGREED CLIMATE AND CLIMATECHANGE TERMINOLOGYCarbon cycle: The exchange of carbon, in various forms, among the atmosphere, ocean,terrestrial biosphere and geological deposits (IPCC, 1995).Climate: The synthesis of weather conditions in a given area, characterized by long-termstatistics (mean values, variances, probabilities of extreme values, etc.) for the meteorologicalelements in that area (WMO, 1992, updated on 12 June 2006). Climate is usually defined as the “average weather”, or more rigorously as the statisticaldescription of the weather in terms of the mean and variability of relevant quantities overperiods of several decades (typically three decades, as defined by WMO). These quantities aremost often surface variables, such as temperature, precipitation and wind, but in a wider sensethe “climate” is the description of the state of the climate system (IPCC, 1995).Climate variability: (1) In the most general sense, this term denotes the inherentcharacteristic of climate that manifests itself as changes of climate over time. The degree ofclimate variability can be described by the differences between long-term statistics ofmeteorological elements calculated for different periods. (In this sense, the measure of climatevariability is the same as the measure of climate change.) (2) The term is often used to denote deviations of climate statistics over a given period(such as during a specific month, season or year) from the long-term climate statistics relatingto the corresponding calendar period. (In this sense, climate variability is measured by thosedeviations, which are usually termed anomalies.) (WMO, 1992, updated on 12 June 2005)Climate system: A system consisting of the atmosphere, the hydrosphere (comprising theliquid water distributed on and beneath the earth’s surface, and the cryosphere, i.e., the snowand ice on and beneath the surface), the surface lithosphere (comprising the rock, soil andsediment of the earth’s surface), and the biosphere (comprising earth’s plant and animal life,and humanity), which, under the effects of the solar radiation received by the earth,determines the climate of the earth. Although climate essentially relates to the varying statesof the atmosphere only, the other parts of the climate system also have significant roles informing climate, through their interactions with the atmosphere (WMO, 1992, last updated on10 June 2005).Climate classification: The division of the earth’s climates into a worldwide system ofcontiguous regions, each defined by the relative homogeneity of its climatic elements.Examples are Köppen’s and Thornthwaite’s climate classifications (WMO, 1992, updated on10 June 2006).Climate change (WMO usage): (1) In the most general sense, this term encompasses allforms of climatic inconstancy (i.e., any differences from long-term statistics of themeteorological elements calculated for different periods but relating to the same area),regardless of their statistical nature or physical causes. Climate changes may result from suchfactors as changes in solar emission, long-term changes in the earth’s orbital elements(eccentricity, obliquity of the ecliptic, precession of the equinoxes), natural internal processesof the climate system, or anthropogenic forcing (e.g., increasing atmospheric concentrationsof CO2 and other greenhouse gases). (2) The term is often used in a more restricted sense to denote a significant change (i.e., achange with important economic, environmental and social effects) in the mean values of a 85

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Climate change and food security: a framework documentmeteorological element (particularly temperature or amount of precipitation) in the course ofa certain period, where the means are taken over periods of a decade or longer (WMO, 1992,updated on 10 June 2005).Climate change (UNFCCC usage): A change of climate that is attributed, directly orindirectly, to human activity, alters the composition of the global atmosphere and is inaddition to the natural climate variability observed over comparable periods (IPCC, 1995).Climate change (IPCC usage): Climate change as referred to in the observational record ofclimate occurs because of internal changes within the climate system or in the interactionamong its components, or because of changes in external forcing, either for natural reasons orbecause of human activities. It is generally not possible to make clear attributions betweenthese causes. Projections of future climate change reported by IPCC generally consider theinfluence on climate of only anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases and other human-related factors (IPCC, 1995).86

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AnnexesANNEX IIIGLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGEClimate change, global environmental change and global changeThe terms “climate change”, “global environmental change” and “global change” are oftenused interchangeably to refer to essentially the same phenomenon: the rapid changes in earthsystem dynamics that have been occurring at an increasing rate over the past two or morecenturies. Whether referring to the climate system, the natural environment or the earthsystem, the five components remain the same: atmosphere, biosphere, cryosphere,hydrosphere and lithosphere. However, the perspectives and concerns are different. The Earth System Science Partnership (ESSP) defines the earth system as follows:“The Earth System is the unified set of physical, chemical, biological and social components, processesand interactions that together determine the state and dynamics of Planet Earth, including its biodataand its human occupants.” (ESSP Online) As well as average weather, many other features of the earth’s environment have beenchanging rapidly during the past few centuries, owing in large part to technological advanceand rapid population growth. Examples include deforestation and loss of soil quality; erosion;desertification; urbanization and industrialization; pollution/contamination of air, water andsoil; unsustainable drawing of underground water reserves; gradual depletion of fossil fuelreserves; and overfishing and loss of marine fish stocks. On a global scale, the ability to measure and monitor pertinent variables and predict theirfuture trajectories has improved dramatically in recent years. Nevertheless, considerableuncertainty remains about how the complex interactions involved will unfold at the localscale. Although it is not yet possible to foresee precisely what the specific impacts of thesechanges on food security will be, it can be stated with confidence that the world is headinginto a more uncertain and potentially precarious future one in which the old rules about hownature behaves may or may not hold for coming generations, and where sudden shocks mayprofoundly alter the natural environment that humans inhabit. The excerpt from the 2001 Amsterdam Declaration on Global Change cited in the box setsout very clearly the seriousness with which environmental scientists regard current trends forthe earth system as a whole. Although this paper is concerned primarily with the climateaspects of global change, with a particular focus on interactions between the climate systemand food systems and their potential consequences for food security, the implications of otheruncertainties about the future of the earth system as a whole cannot be ignored.Global warmingUntil the industrial revolution, all climate change occurred because of natural forces acting on theclimate system, and these forces are still at work today. On an astronomical time scale, the earth’sclimate system alternates between cold conditions that support large-scale continental glaciationsand warm conditions that make the planet extensively tropical and lacking in permanent ice caps,even at the poles. The time required for each cycle is roughly 140 million years. Evidence suggeststhat this behaviour is due to cyclical changes in the position of the earth’s orbit around the sun andthe angle of its rotational axis, usually referred to together as “astronomical forcing of climate”(Shaviv and Veizer, 2003). Other natural forces that are thought to contribute to changes in theclimate system on a geological time scale include sunspot activity, meteorite bombardment, erosion,earthquakes, volcanic activity, mountain building, movement of sea beds, and ocean trenchformation. Variations in the concentration of greenhouse gases due to natural geological processeshave created alternating periods of glacier advance (ice ages) and glacier retreat (interglacials) withinthe longer astronomical cycles. On the scale of decades, many climate fluctuations, the best knownbeing the El Niño southern oscillation, owe their existence at least in part to periodic changes in thepatterns by which the oceans store and circulate hot and cold water. 87

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Climate change and food security: a framework documentExcerpt from the Amsterdam Declaration on Global ChangeResearch carried out over the past decade under the auspices of the International Geosphere-BiosphereProgramme (IGBP), the International Human Dimensions Programme on Global EnvironmentalChange (IHDP), WCRP and Divertitas has shown that: x “The Earth System behaves as a single, self-regulating system comprised of physical, chemical, biological and human components. The interactions and feedbacks between the component parts are complex and exhibit multiscale temporal and spatial variability. The understanding of the natural dynamics of the Earth System has advanced greatly in recent years and provides a sound basis for evaluating the effects and consequences of human-driven change. x “Human activities are significantly influencing Earth’s environment in many ways in addition to greenhouse gas emissions and climate change. Anthropogenic changes to Earth’s land surface, oceans, coasts and atmosphere and to biological diversity, the water cycle and biogeochemical cycles are clearly identifiable beyond natural variability. They are equal to some of the great forces of nature in their extent and impact. Many are accelerating. Global change is real and is happening now. x “Global change cannot be understood in terms of a simple cause-effect paradigm. Human-driven changes cause multiple effects that cascade through the Earth System in complex ways. These effects interact with each other and with local- and regional-scale changes in multidimensional patterns that are difficult to understand and even more difficult to predict. Surprises abound. x “Earth System dynamics are characterized by critical thresholds and abrupt changes. Human activities could inadvertently trigger such changes with severe consequences for Earth’s environment and inhabitants. The Earth System has operated in different states over the last half million years, with abrupt transitions (a decade or less) sometimes occurring between them. Human activities have the potential to switch the Earth System to alternative modes of operation that may prove irreversible and less hospitable to humans and other life. The probability of a human-driven abrupt change in Earth’s environment has yet to be quantified but is not negligible. x “In terms of some key environmental parameters, the Earth System has moved well outside the range of the natural variability exhibited over the last half million years at least. The nature of changes now occurring simultaneously in the Earth System, their magnitudes and rates of change are unprecedented. The Earth is currently operating in a no-analogue state.”Source: Open Science Conference, 2001. Recently, concern has grown that human activity may be causing global-scale changes inclimate, with accompanying shifts in regional climate regimes all over the world. This isknown as “anthropogenic forcing of climate”. By increasing the amount of greenhouse gasesin the atmosphere through the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, gas) and deforestation, humanshave enhanced the earth’s natural greenhouse effect. This means that more of the sun’sradiation is now trapped in the earth’s atmosphere, where the additional heat causes mean airand sea surface temperatures to rise all over the globe. This phenomenon is called globalwarming. As shown in the following figure, during the last ice age, which ended only 14 000 yearsago, global average surface temperature was 5 oC lower than it is today. At that time, lessenergy was being received from the sun as a consequence of the position of the earth’s orbit,CO2 levels in the atmosphere were lower, and heat redistribution by ocean circulation wasweaker. Over a period of about 5 000 years, the global surface temperature gradually rose toan average of about 15 oC, where it remained until about 100 years ago. Then, as a result ofhuman activity, what UNFCCC calls a “thickening” of the blanket of greenhouse gasesoccurred and the earth’s average surface temperature started to increase rapidly. Today it hasrisen to over 15.5 oC, with most of the increase occurring since the 1980s; it is projected torise by a further 2 to 3 oC before the end of the century. This means that, over a period of only100 years, the earth will have experienced an increase in global mean temperature comparableto the one that took 2 500 years to occur ten millennia ago. Moreover, the increase that is nowoccurring is pushing global mean temperatures towards what may be an upper limit for humansurvival.88

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AnnexesChanges in mean global temperature since the end of the last ice age, by millennium 20 18 16 14 12 10 Mean global 8 temperature 6 4 2 0 0 – 999 10000 – 9001 9000 – 8001 8000 – 7001 7000 – 6001 6000 – 5001 5000 – 4001 4000 – 3001 3000 – 2001 2000 – 1001 1000 – 0001 12000 –11001 11000 – 10001 1000 – 1999 2000 – 2100 Pre-history Recorded human history Millennia since last ice ageSource: FAO/NRCB. Life forms have flourished on earth at even higher temperatures than those currentlyprojected to be reached as a result of human activity in the current epoch. Nevertheless,according to one report, “the earth is now within +/- 1 oC of its maximum temperature in thepast million years” (Hansen et al., 2006), and it is clear that the recent rapid increase in globaltemperatures has already begun to alter the complex web of systems that allow life to thriveon earth. These global changes threaten the balance of climatic conditions under which lifeevolved and is sustained. The current speed of change also threatens social and economicsystems, including agriculture, food and water supply, coastal infrastructure, climate-dependent livelihood systems, and vulnerability to pests and diseases (UNFCCC, 2006).The carbon and nitrogen cyclesSeven biogeochemical cycles are important for earth system dynamics: the carbon cycle, thehydrogen cycle, the nitrogen cycle, the oxygen cycle, the phosphorous cycle, the sulphurcycle and the water cycle. All are relevant, but it is primarily changes in the carbon cycle and,to a lesser extent, the nitrogen cycle that are driving the climate change processes observedtoday. The global warming potential of greenhouse gases containing these two elements isestimated to be: 72 percent CO2; 18 percent carbon-containing methane; 9 percent nitrousoxide; and 1 percent other carbon-containing gases. Latest IPCC estimates show that, while the agriculture sector contributes less than 10percent of total CO2 emissions and offsets approximately the same amount, it accounts formore than half of total methane emissions and nearly 60 percent of nitrous oxide emissions.The following brief explanations of how the carbon and nitrogen cycles work, and the impactsof human action on them, provide background for understanding agriculture’s potentialcontribution to carbon sequestration and emissions reduction (IPCC, 2007b). 89

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Climate change and food security: a framework documentCarbon stocks in the earth system, excluding carbonate rock and kerogen in theocean depths Location of carbon stocks Gt of carbon (highest estimate) UNEP-GRID Lal Atmosphere 750 760 Geologic deposits (coal, oil and gas) 3 300 5 000 Soil organic carbon to 1 m depth 1 600 1 550 Soil inorganic carbon to 1 m depth 750 Terrestrial vegetation/biota 600 560 Total 6 250 8 610Sources: UNEP-GRID Arendal Online; Lal, 2004a.The carbon cycle: Carbon in its pure form is a solid, but numerous chemical compounds thatcontain carbon are also found in liquid and gaseous states, including the greenhouse gasesCO2 and methane (CH4). Carbon in one form or another is present in all organic compounds.For example, organic plant material, which is essential to the human food chain, is createdfrom the combination of CO2 and water through the process of photosynthesis. The stock of carbon in the earth system is constant. This carbon is distributed andexchanged in various forms among four major reservoirs: the atmosphere, the ocean, theterrestrial biosphere and geological deposits. Scientists do not know the exact amount ofcarbon in the earth system. Estimates range from more than 100 to nearly 150 milliongigatonnes (Gt), where 1 gigatonne equals 1 billion (thousand million) tonnes. What is knownis that virtually all of the total carbon stock is stored in marine sediments and deep oceanwater. Terrestrial, geologic and atmospheric carbon amounts to only about 8 000 Gt, or lessthan 0.0001 percent of the total, broken down as shown in the table. The continuouscirculation of this tiny proportion of the total carbon stock from one part of the earth systemto another through the carbon cycle is vital for the survival of life. At present, slightly more carbon is being released into the atmosphere from the burning offossil fuels, the clearing of forested area, land degradation and agricultural emissions than isbeing reabsorbed by terrestrial vegetation and oceans, causing atmospheric concentrations ofCO2 and methane to increase. As explained, the increasing atmospheric concentration ofcarbon-containing greenhouse gases is the primary cause of global warming and climatechange. Carbon can be released into the atmosphere in many different ways: exhalation byanimals; decay of animal and plant matter; release of CO2 (when oxygen is present) ormethane (when oxygen is not present) from combustion of organic matter, including live andrecently dead vegetation and fossil fuels; production of cement; release of dissolved CO2 atthe surface of the oceans where the water becomes warmer; volcanic eruptions; andpermafrost melt. Food system practices that emit carbon include deforestation to clear new land foragricultural use, and burning of fuelwood and agricultural wastes and residues for heating andcooking. Accumulation of poorly managed animal wastes in intensive livestock operations,and standing water in irrigated rice fields are important sources of methane. Fortunately, asexplained in more detail in Chapters 2 and 3, there are technologies that could substantiallyreduce the current rate of carbon emission from the food and agriculture sector, as long asmarket forces support their adoption.The nitrogen cycle: Nitrogen in its pure form is an inert gas that comprises 78 percent of theearth’s atmosphere. It is essential to all life processes, as it forms the amino acids, proteins,nucleic acids and DNA that are vital for all living cells. The nitrogen cycle begins with thefixation of nitrogen, through the transformation of pure, non-reactive nitrogen into reactivenitrogen-containing compounds. Before the industrial revolution, biological nitrogen fixationby leguminous plants, and atmospheric deposition caused by lightning were the primary90

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Annexesmeans by which the nitrogen cycle was triggered. Nitrogen-containing compounds areinitially deposited in the soil, then taken up by plants, utilized by the animals and humans thateat the plants, deposited as wastes, mineralized, oxidized, reduced to their original gaseousstate and returned to the atmosphere. At the beginning of the twentieth century, the discoveryof a process for artificially fixing nitrogen made possible the industrial production offertilizer. Large-scale application of artificial fertilizer on farmers’ fields made the green revolutionpossible and guaranteed food security for an increasing proportion of the world’s rapidlygrowing population. One of the sources of food insecurity for many small-scale farminghouseholds is the low yields they obtain from the crops they sow, owing to lack of adequatenitrogen to nourish the plants. However, the sharp increase in fertilizer use that hasaccompanied the development of commercial agriculture has also led to a sharp increase inemissions of nitrous oxide and other nitrogen-containing compounds that pollute the air andwater. These emissions can be visualized as leakages from a pipe. Human-induced nitrogeninputs from agricultural activities are fed into the pipe via fertilizer and animal manure.Nitrogen outputs exit from the pipe in the form of harvested crops and livestock products. Ifthe build-up of nitrogen in the pipe exceeds the amount needed by plants and animals forgood nutrition, the surplus is released into the air in the form of anhydrous ammonia (NH3),nitrous oxide (N2O), nitric oxide (NO2) and molecular nitrogen (N2). Soil runoff also carriesexcess nitric oxide, ammonium (NH4) and dissolved organic nitrogen (N2) into freshwaterbodies, where they pollute the water and may eventually become another source of nitrousoxide emissions (INI Online, 2007). Disturbances in the nitrogen cycle created by excessnitrogen accumulation in the soil and in the diets of ruminant livestock as a consequence ofindustrial agricultural production methods have created other environmental problems as wellas the increase in greenhouse gas emissions. The urgent need to act to reduce emissionsprovides a strong incentive to bring the nitrogen cycle back into balance – a challenge that thefood and agriculture sector is best placed to meet. 91

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AnnexesANNEX IVRULES AND CONDITIONS FOR THE CLEANDEVELOPMENT MECHANISMCDM projects need to seek approval from the CDM Executive Board. A number of rules andconditions apply, some to all project types and others specifically to afforestation andreforestation projects. Although several of the detailed procedures to be applied to CDMforestry projects are still to be agreed, the overall framework is already established forapproving projects and accounting for the carbon credits generated:1. Only areas that were not forest on 31 December 1989 are likely to satisfy the CDM criteria for afforestation or reforestation.2. Projects must result in real, measurable and long-term emission reductions, as certified by a third party agency (an “operational entity” in the language of the convention). The carbon stocks generated by the project need to be secure over the long term (a point referred to as “permanence”), and any future emissions that might arise from these stocks must be accounted for.3. Emission reductions and sequestration must be additional to any that would occur without the project. They must result in a net storage of carbon, and therefore a net removal of CO2 from the atmosphere. This is called “additionality” and is assessed by comparing the carbon stocks and flows of project activities with those that would have occurred without the project (its “baseline”). For example, the project may be proposing to afforest farmland with native tree species, increasing its stocks of carbon. The net carbon benefit can be calculated by comparing the carbon stored in the project plantations (high carbon) with the carbon that would have been stored in the baseline abandoned farmland (low carbon). Technical discussions are still ongoing regarding the interpretation of the additionality requirement for specific contexts.4. Projects must be in line with sustainable development objectives, as defined by the government hosting them.5. Projects must contribute to biodiversity conservation and sustainable use of natural resources.6. Only projects starting from 2000 onwards will be eligible.7. Two percent of the carbon credits awarded to a CDM project will be allocated to a fund to help cover the costs of adaptation in countries severely affected by climate change (the “adaptation levy”). This fund may provide support for land-use activities that are not at present eligible under CDM, such as conservation of existing forest resources.8. Some of the proceeds from carbon credit sales from all CDM projects will be used to cover CDM administrative expenses (the proportion is still to be decided).9. Projects need to select a crediting period for activities. This can be for a maximum of seven years and renewable at most twice, or a maximum of ten years with no renewal option.10. The funding for CDM projects must not come from a diversion of official development assistance funds.11. Each CDM project management plan must address and account for potential leakage. Leakage is the unplanned, indirect emission of CO2 resulting from project activities. For example, if the project involves establishing plantations on agricultural land, leakage could occur if people who were farming on this land migrate to clear forest elsewhere.Source: CDM Capacity Online. 93