Friday, June 22, 2012

Downward impulse from April took 8 weeks but finished with the A-B-C which began the first week of June. Large volume sell-offs yesterday and today seem to portend the start of another downward impulse (Orange line).

June lows of 127-ish come into play and should be strong support for a wave 2 to start.

Monday, June 11, 2012

OK, Elliot waves have become old-fashioned and few traders look at them anymore. Here are the counts as I see then recent downward impulse. We have completed the A-wave corrective and are likely about to see how low the B-corrective will be.

Voo-doo. The Elliot Waves are usually only apparent to me after they are completed and I find them useless for trading. The low sentiment and oversold technicals from last week are pretty much played out. My guess is that we trade in a low volume range here .

Thursday, February 23, 2012

I'm still net long in my trading account, but have instituted hedges with QID and DZZ. Other holdings include long positions in UNG, CVX, X and TBT (short Treasuries). All are swing trades for a week or more.

Tuesday, September 27, 2011

Kimberly Clark (KMB) is a swing trade I've been holding since the August lows but now it seems to be getting ahead of itself. Here is the exit strategy and even a short set-up if the market swoons. Wolfe waves are elegant when they work and this one is a classic set up.

My cost basis is 65.29 and I set my sell-stop on the long position at 70.50 (white trend line). The short set-up is good only for the next few trading sessions on this test of top. If KMB drops below the red trend line then I'll enter a short with a target at the green line or Oct 23rd, whichever comes first. There's a chance that KMB takes off to the upside in which case I'll ride it. If it pulls back it may just trade in a range between the white and red lines in which case I won't have a position. This strategy takes patience but feels great when it works...ie, a fun vanity trade.