Friday, 1 March 2013

Take the kicking, boys

Tory boys would be well advised to keep quiet and take the kicking from Eastleigh. There will be more to come next year in the Euro elections when UKIP are set to wipe out the existing 26 Conservative MEPs. However, by-elections and Euro elections are not General Elections - and if Cameron plays his cards right, he may yet enjoy the benefits of those votes in 2015. Farage is a cheeky delight with his 'the Conservatives split the UKIP vote' comment on Eastleigh and many natural Tories will welcome the chance to give Dave and George a slap next year but that doesn't mean they want the Mister Eds in Downing Street. The correct tactic for Cameron and his dags is not therefore to insult protest voters as polyester-blazered golf club bore racists but (fully in line with the new macrobiotic spandex iPad gay cycling windmill direction the party has taken) to tell them they 'feel their pain' and empathise with their grief at losing the party they grew up with. And ask nicely for their votes in 2015.

10 comments:

Problem.We do not want Millipede as PM (even though my local Labour MP is really excellent)Camoron cannot be trusted - like every PM since Jim Callaghan, who did the right thing, as an ex-Navy man, he (C) is a traitor.Can one Guaruantee a Con-UKIP coalition? No, you can't.It is going to careful tactical voting in just about every single seat - very difficult.

I have only one problem with UKIP (maybe two)1] They seem to have been infected by christianity, euw.1.5] OUT of EU - YES. IN Shengen, please? ( Yes you CAN control who lives in the country, the scare-stories about Shengen are just that. )

If Cameron wants to win the next election, he will need to come to an accommodation with UKIP, which is difficult as Farrage has said that he won't do so whilst Cameron is the leader.So unless Cameron steps down, his only option as I see it is to call a referendum on the EU as soon as possible. He wouldn't get LibDem support but he could get enough Labour support. If the other parties defeat this in parliament he should then call a general election with the need for a referendum being the reason

It was interesting to see that due to the constraints imposed by being a physical entity that Nigel Farage was not able to be everywhere last night and so it was that BBC QT had Neil Hamilton on the panel, Andrew Whatsisname (in a string vest) had Paul Nuttall on his panel, and various other UKIP spokesmen appeared elsewhere.

So the big secret is out....

UKIP do have policies and there is more than one able bodied "mover and shaker" capable of holding their own on BBC shows. The bit where Nuttall drew out the CONservative flyer in UKIP font and colours, much to the chagrin of Schapps and the amusement of everyone else was priceless.

You may well be right about the next general election Raedwald, though I wouldn't like to call it, remember that Labour annihilated the Liberal Party after it too had turned social democrat in the early 20th century... the voters preferred a true party of the left, and the seats that "belonged" to the Liberals, no longer did.

Boris will accommodate anyone if it suits him.But I think UKIP will slide down in favour as an election approaches.There are other factors anyway, such as Scottish independence, that will affect the next election (41 labour seats to lose if they decide to depart). Never forgetting that the government may well decide to give people shares in "their" bank as the election approaches. It worked for Thatcher.So, all-in-all, I expect a Cameron win in 2015 by about 40-50 seats and the dumping of the LibDem luvvies slightly sooner than that (clearing the decks for action).After that win we can then sort-out the extremely high benefit costs that we can no longer afford: The state pension. You will note a lack of reporting that, in the 2012 Budget, the Government froze old age pensioners age related tax allowances and cancelled them for those turning 65 after 5 April 2013. The NHS can be regarded as "nearly-sorted" and by 2020 will be "really-sorted".

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