Des Moines Register Iowa Caucus Poll: Romney, Ron Paul, and Santorum

See Politisite Political Projections Iowa Caucuses Here The Des Moines Register is the long awaited poll considered the “Gold Standard” for the Iowa Caucuses.

Mitt Romney tops the latest Des Moines Register Iowa Poll in the closing days before the Iowa caucuses, but Ron Paul and Rick Santorum are poised within striking distance.

The poll, conducted Tuesday through Friday, shows support at 24 percent for Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts; 22 percent for Paul, a Texas congressman; and 15 percent for the surging Rick Santorum, a former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania.

But the four-day results don’t reflect just how quickly momentum is shifting in a race that has remained highly fluid for months. If the final two days of polling are considered separately, Santorum rises to second place, with 21 percent, pushing Paul to third, at 18 percent. Romney remains the same, at 24 percent.

“Momentum’s name is Rick Santorum,” said the Register’s pollster, J. Ann Selzer.

Another sign of the race’s volatility: 41 percent of likely caucusgoers say they could still be persuaded to change their minds.

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Mitt Romney has a slight lead over Ron Paul, R-Tex., among Iowa voters, but a surging Rick Santorum is now a threat to catch both of them, according to the final pre-caucuses poll by the Des Moines Register.

According to the full survey, Romney is at 24 percent, Paul is at 22 percent and Rick Santorum is at 15 percent. But here’s a crucial detail: “If the final two days of polling are considered separately, Santorum rises to second place, with 21 percent, pushing Paul to third, at 18 percent. Romney remains the same, at 24 percent.”

In other words, the momentum appears to be with Santorum.

This is likely the best snapshot we’ll get of where the race stands before actual results start coming in Tuesday night. The Register’s poll is generally viewed as the gold standard of Iowa polling and it proved very accurate in 2008, when it found Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee with comfortable leads and both won solid victories.

The poll, conducted Tuesday through Friday, shows support at 24 percent for Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts; 22 percent for Paul, a Texas congressman; and 15 percent for the surging Rick Santorum, a former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania.

The Des Moines Register, which is widely considered one of very best indicators of how the results of the Iowa caucuses will turn out, has released their final Republican primary poll. The race is still up for grabs, with Mitt Romney clinging to a narrow lead over Ron Paul. Yet, the most compelling storyline of this last weekend before the primary continues to be Rick Santorum, who has gone “all in” in Iowa and surged in the poll. He needs a great result Tuesday to jump-start a campaign that has yet to catch on nationally.

The poll results have a 4 percent margin of error for the full results, and a 5.6 percent margin of error for the subsample of the last two days.

The results, though, mirror a series of polls released this week had showed a narrow lead for Romney in the race to win the Iowa caucuses.

The NBC News-Marist poll, conducted Dec. 27-28 and released Friday, showed Romney at 23 percent, followed by Paul at 21 percent, Santorum at 15 percent, Perry at 14 percent, Gingrich at 13 percent and Bachmann at six percent.

That followed a TIME/CNN poll that was released on Wednesday, which also showed Romney and Paul atop the GOP pack, at 25 percent and 22 percent (respectively) among Republican likely caucus-goers.

The survey reflects a reordering of the field in the last several weeks. The previous poll by the Register, released on Dec. 3, showed Mr. Gingrich with the lead, at 25 percent, Mr. Paul in second and Mr. Romney in third, with 16 percent support.

The late-in-the-game survey by the state’s biggest newspaper has long been seen as one of the most accurate indicators of what might happen on election day. In 2008, the Register poll accurately predicted victories by Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee.

Albert Milliron is the founder of Politisite. Milliron has been credentialed by most major news networks for Presidential debates and major Political Parties for political event coverage. Albert maintains relationships with the White House and State Department to provide direct reporting from the Administration’s Press team. Albert is the former Public Relations Chairman of the Columbia County Republican Party in Georgia. He is a former Delegate.
Milliron is a veteran of the US Army Medical Department and worked for Department of Veterans Affairs, Department of Psychiatry.