Lukashenko's popularity in Belarus on the rise

The popularity of the Belarusian president, Alexander Lukashenko, has increased since the start of the Ukrainian crisis, a survey found, as voters show their appreciation for stability in their country.

Despite deteriorating economic conditions, Lukashenko’s ratings have increased by five percentage points since December, reaching 39.9%. Over the past six months the number of Belarusians who think that the country is heading in the right direction is up by nearly 10 points from 31.9% to 42.3% – the highest approval rating in three years.

“It’s been good to have Lukashenko in power for 20 years. There is peace and stability. In Ukraine they had four presidents and now we see how bad it turned out,” says Volha Migitskaya, a 30-year-old accountant from Minsk.

The crisis in neighbouring Ukraine began when former president Viktor Yanukovych moved to join the EEU at the expense of closer ties with the EU, sparking pro-western demonstrations that led to his downfall.

In Belarus, however, most people have followed developments in their southern neighbour on Russian media, and there is no visible support for the pro-EU movement.

“Historically, the majority of Belarusians are pro-Russian. Though the domination of the Russian media also played its role,” said Aleh Manayeu, the head of the research institute. “More than 60% of Belarusians watch, and most importantly trust, the Russian media.”

Television remains the most popular medium in Belarus, with Russian channels dominating coverage although more than 22% of Belarusians have access to satellite television and Ukrainian channels.

“I have been on vacations to Ukraine in February and watched Ukrainian channels, but I rather trust the Russian media,” said Vitaly Rybachenka, a 53-year-old teacher. “They report on many more stories. And Ukrainians conceal them and pretend these horrible things never happened.”

Political analyst Yury Chavusau said Russian media was extremely influential in shaping public opinion. “Lukashenko is unable to control the moods in the society,” he said. “With independent media space severely limited, and the state Belarusian media only following Lukashenko’s cautious example, we’ve let the Russian media form the views of our society.”

Lukashenko has been careful not to be seen to be taking sides over Ukraine, recognising Crimea as a Russian territory but maintaining economic and political ties with the new government in Kiev.

At the request of the new Ukrainian president, Petro Poroshenko, he agreed to host a crisis meeting of the Ukrainian, Russian and OSCE officials as well as representatives of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic at the end of July.

But the Russian propaganda appears to have had another effect. Months of news about violence and aggression seems to have also strengthened the Belarusian resolve to remain independent from Russia. Research found 54% against a union and 24% in favour. Ten years ago the majority of Belarusians favoured forming a union with the former motherland.

“The mobilising effect of the Russian media has started to wear off,” said Manayeu. “The hysteria has become tiresome and there have been too many deaths. Everybody likes peace, while Russia is associated with war now.”