American Consumers in 2020 offers a comprehensive view of the future in order to provide marketers and retailers with a vision of what American consumers will look like, how much they will have to spend, how they will be shopping and what they will be buying in 2020. The report presents a plausible scenario of how American consumers will evolve and the economy will unfold over the next five years so that marketers can align their current strategies to meet the challenges of the future.

Although the Great Recession officially ended five years ago, the American economy has failed to achieve the robust growth experienced in the aftermath of the economic downturns experienced in previous decades. As a result, Packaged Facts expects that American marketers and retailers in 2020 will find themselves operating in an economy reflecting the “new normal” of modest growth forecast in 2015 by agencies such as the Federal Reserve and Congressional Budget Office.

Yet, according to Packaged Facts National Online Consumer Survey data, as American consumers look ahead five years from now, they have a much less dystopian vision of the future than might be expected, given the harsh realities many have faced in recent years. For example, only a small minority expect that global warming will make life harder in five years. While most doubt that the American economy will be in good shape five years from now, they are optimistic about their own job prospects and overall personal financial situation.

The report highlights a series of challenges that marketers and retailers need to understand so they can convert them into opportunities in 2020. For example, as a result of demographic changes, marketing strategies tied to the needs of traditional two-parent-with-children households will be increasingly outmoded. The youth market will shrink and the spending power of older consumers will grow. Retailers will be forced to find ways to deal with a shrinking middle class created by a deeply entrenched two-tier economy, frugal spending habits instilled by the Great Recession and the growth of the sharing economy that will entice more consumers to rent or re-use products rather than buy new ones.

Technological change on both the shopper and retailer side of the shopping equation will result in a dramatic shift in the options available to consumers as they shop and pay for what they buy in brick-and-mortar stores in 2020. Virtual reality, 3D printing, beacon technology enabling hyper-personalized in-store messaging to shoppers’ smartphones and wearables allowing hands-free payment are just a few of the innovations that will be on the way to changing the in-store shopping environment by 2020.

At the same time, brick-and-mortar retailers will be under increasing competitive pressure from online retailers that are able to meet the demands of customers ordering up products for same-day delivery. In 2020 brick-and-mortar retailers will face a significant problem in attracting shoppers, especially Millennials, unless they implement technological innovations creating a shopping experience that integrates in-store and online shopping.

Scope of the Report

This Packaged Facts report forecasts how the American economy will perform and envisions how the American consumer will behave in 2020. It includes an analysis of the trends likely to shape the demographic profile of consumers in 2020, a review of the factors that will influence the magnitude of consumer spending in 2020, an assessment of how consumer spending patterns are likely to change between 2015 and 2020, and a projection of shifts in the shopping and retailing environment that are likely to occur by 2020.

Methodology

Consumer data in this report come from two primary sources. The first source is the Packaged Facts National Online Consumer Survey conducted in August 2015. These surveys reflect a panel of 2,000 U.S. adults (age 18+) that is balanced to the national population on the primary demographic measures of gender, age bracket, race/ethnicity, geographic region, marital status, presence or absence of children in the household and household income.

Another source of consumer data in this report is the Simmons National Consumer Study (NCS) for Winter 2014—which was fielded from February 2014 through March 2015—and Spring 2005 (for trend analysis tables) from Experian Marketing Services. On an ongoing basis, Experian Marketing Services conducts booklet-based surveys of a large and random sample of consumers (approximately 25,000 for each 12-month survey compilation) who in aggregate represent a statistically accurate cross-section of the U.S. population.

U.S. Government sources include the Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Federal Reserve System, including the Atlanta and St. Louis regional Federal Reserve Banks, and the General Accountability Office. The report cites surveys and studies conducted by a wide range of private sector organizations and is also based upon data collected from a wide range of industry sources, including company websites, trade publications, business newspapers and magazines and consumer blogs.

Executive Summary

Scope of the Report

Methodology

Table Selected Data Sources

Insights and Opportunities

What the Future Holds for the American Economy

Demographic Shifts Will Change the Marketing and Retail Environment

Frugal Spending Habits Learned in Great Recession Will Die Hard

Consumers Foresee Demise of Traditional Print Media but Not TV

Technology Will Start to Revolutionize the Shopping Experience

Millennials Will Lead the Retail Revolution

Boomers Will Provide Major Opportunity for Retailers in 2020

Multicultural Consumers More Prominent in 2020

Affluent Consumers Will Be Key in 2020

Demographic Profile of American Consumers in 2020

An Aging Consumer Population

A More Diverse Population of Consumers

Fewer Traditional Households

A Growing Divide between Haves and Have-Nots

The American Consumer Economy in 2020

Factors Supporting Robust Consumer Spending by 2020

Factors Leading to Modest Consumer Spending by 2020

Projected Consumer Spending in 2020

Consumer Spending Patterns in 2020

Trends Affecting Consumer Expenditure Patterns in 2020

Changes in Consumer Spending Patterns in 2020

American Shoppers and Retailers in 2020

Millennial Minimalism Will Change Ground Rules

Consumers Will Expect More On-Demand Products and Services

Consumers Will Demand Hyper-Personalized Attention from Retailers

Shoppers Will Become "Channel Agnostics" and "Omniconsumers"

Retail Channels Will Reconfigure to Adapt to Shrinking Middle Class

Technology Will Transform Shopping

Insights and Opportunities

Topline Insights

What the Future Holds for the American Economy

Table Measures of Consumer Optimism about the Future Five Years from Now, 2015