Fertility of ethnic and religious groups in the UK

Sylvie Dubuc, University of Oxford

[Project number 30124]

The project aims to i) estimate fertility level and trend by ethnic and
religious groups (as defined in the 2001 census) in the UK, and distinguishing
between immigrants and UK-born generations ii) to analyse timing at childbearing
and parity progression (including birth orders TFRs and evaluate tempo
effects on classical period TFRs) iii) analyse the role of gender composition
of siblings in fertility behaviour (additional child).

A large part of the fluctuations in the total fertility over the last
20 years in the UK (and western countries in general) is thought to be
due to tempo effects in the period TFR. This project aims to investigate
parity-fertility measures. This includes calculating median and mean age
at childbearing and by parity and producing parity progression ratios
by main ethnic groups, distinguishing between UK-born and foreign-born
parents. Additionally, the project aims to investigate parity progression
(for all women and by ethnic groups where possible) for previous births
which were only boys, only girls, or mixed gender; this will allow us
to test for the hypothetical role of gender composition of siblings in
influencing fertility behaviour. One aim of the project is to produce
tempo adjusted period fertility rates for all women and by ethnic and
religious groups. Results will be compared to the age specific fertility
rates produced in the project number 30060. Additionally to the investigation
of tempo effect in the general trend, the analysis by ethnic and religious
groups will allow to evaluate the role, if any, of differences in tempo
effect to explain differences in the level of fertility between groups.
Methods to produce tempo adjusted TFR like the Bongaarts and Freney model
(1998), requiring parity fertility estimates, will be used. This project
is part and extension of an ongoing ESRC project awarded to myself to
analyse demographic characteristics by ethnic and religious groups and
further develop populations projection models.