We have been following this disturbance for a couple of days now. It looked like it had reached tropical depression status about 24 hours ago. NHC has now officially upgraded it to a depression at 35 mph and is forecast to become a tropical storm. It is so well formed at this point that we think not only is it a storm, but is probably about 50 mph.

(Polo) is centered at 8.8 N / 109.8 W or about 970 miles south of Cabo San Lucas. It is moving wnw at about 16 mph. It is no threat to Mexico. There is potential that it could strengthen to a strong tropical storm before facing wind shear.

The tropical depression was upgraded a short while ago as expected. The I.R. satellite imagery showed that there was a small burst of deep convection a few hours ago. The clouds tops now have warmed again. The official strength is 40 mph by NHC. We will estimate 45 mph, down from 50 mph earlier.

There really has been little change since last night's update. Tropical storm Polo is continuing a little north of due west. It is about 1000 miles ssw of Cabo San Lucas. Officially Polo is at 40 mph. Our estimate is 40-45 mph, so little difference than NHC's thinking. We still think it looked the strongest about 24 hours ago. There is potential for some strengthening before Polo encounters a less favorable environment.

Polo has strengthened just a bit and looks to be just near or over 45 mph. Officially NHC has Polo at 40 mph on their last advisory. Deep convection has increased and is mainly on the eastern side of the circulation.

Polo is centered near 10.2 N / 117.7 W or just just over 1000 miles southwest of Cabo San Lucas.

As we mentioned earlier, The National Hurricane Center stopped writing advisories last night due to a Quickscat satellite pass indicating an open wave instead of a closed low. A newer Quickscat seems to indicate a weak low still which is consistent with the visible satellite imagery. Deep convection still is on the southeast side of the circulation. Top sustained winds are still probably near 30 mph in the convection.

The remnants of Polo are centered near 9.7 N / 122.4 W.

Polo is not a threat to land and this will be our last update, unless NHC reclassifies the tropical cyclone.