The big New York primary is Bernie's last big shot to shake up the race

Speaking in front of the tenement home in which he grew up in
Brooklyn, Sen. Bernie Sanders waxed uncharacteristically
nostalgic last week.

"Right on this street, I spent thousands of hours playing
punchball — do they still play punchball?" he said. "We played
football, we played boxball, although the sidewalks look a
little better than they did. We used to have sewers around here
where we played marbles."

"This was a great community to grow up in," he added.

It was a bit of reflection in a state that has become one of
outsize importance for the insurgent senator.

Despite the large crowds and the charming personal
anecdotes, Sanders' future in the Democratic race looks grim. The
Empire State provides him with perhaps his last, best chance to
seize momentum from Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton, the
former secretary of state and senator from New York.

Most election analysts say it's
nearly impossible for Sanders to even tie Clinton in
pledged delegates. Sanders also faces an unfavorable primary map
moving forward. He trails Clinton in polls in Pennsylvania and
California, where the bulk of the remaining delegates could
give Clinton an even bigger lead.

Now, much of Sanders' prospects ride on how well he can do
in New York, a state that embraced Clinton in multiple
Senate bids and in the 2008 presidential primary.

Sanders is campaigning hard in New York, attempting to rally
support among more rural voters upstate and progressive voters in
New York City. Long averse to the ostentatious political
stunts that typified other politicians, Sanders is pulling out
all of the stops in the state to woo voters and media
attention.

Over the last two weeks, Sanders met adoring New York
University college students in Washington Square Park, ate
Nathan's Famous hot dog in Coney Island, and hobnobbed with a
litany
of high-profile, Pitchfork-endorsed indie pop musicians in hip
Brooklyn locales.

But his campaign faces a variety of obstacles in the Empire
State.

Most recent polls show Clinton leading among likely
Democratic primary voters in the state by a wide margin. Clinton
leads by
14 points in the RealClearPolitics average of recent
surveys. The state's demographic diversity isn't doing
any favors for Sanders, who has performed well in contests
where the electorate has trended more homogeneous.

The Democratic presidential candidate's campaign has also
grumbled about New York's voter registration rules. New
York holds a closed primary, which means only voters registered
with either party can cast votes. And the state's rules required
independents to switch party registration months before the
actual primary date.

Speaking to reporters after the Thursday Democratic debate in
Brooklyn, Sanders campaign senior strategist Tad Devine
acknowledged the difficulties the deadline posed for the
campaign, which has disproportionately attracted
Democratic-leaning independent voters.

"We do better when independents can vote. We saw that from
New Hampshire to Wisconsin. It’s just a much better system,"
Devine said.

"That being said, the system is the system. We understand what it
is here. We’re going to compete for Democratic votes in a
Democratic primary. And we’re going to try to do the best we
can," he added.

Sanders said during Thursday's debate that he believes he will
win the Democratic nomination. But his actual path there is
becoming less clear.

The New York Times
reported earlier this month that Sanders expressed deep
frustration at the campaign's inability to sweep the early
primary states, hindering his attempt to win delegates and
momentum heading into less-favorable contests in the South.
During the debate, he diminished the "deep South" — where he said
his campaign had gotten "murdered" — as "the most conservative
part of this great country."

Publicly, however, the campaign remains optimistic.

Devine said that Sanders could still win the nomination, and come
away with the majority of delegates, without winning the Empire
State, though he did not elaborate on the specifics.

"I think we have to do well here in New York, but there are
plenty of events between here and California and Washington,
DC, at the end for us to make up the difference," Devine said.
"We were 326 pledged delegates behind on the 15th of March.
We are 214 now behind. We’ve shaved a third off of her advantage
by winning eight of the last nine contests."

He added: "I’m not going to say that we are going to win every
contests between now and the middle of June, but we are going to
win most of them, we are going to win by far most of the
delegates, we can make up the pledged delegate differential. And
I believe when the voting is over, we will be ahead in pledged
delegates."