Some context on Gulf Cartel arrests in Texas

Stratfor released a report today putting a little more context on the recent arrests of alleged Gulf Cartel leaders in South Texas.

Stand by for a convoluted explanation of narco world that, since it’s narco world and it’s pretty hard to keep track of what goes on there, may be mostly speculation.

Rafael Cardenas Vela, the nephew of jailed top Gulf boss Osiel Cardenas Guillen, was arrested along with three unarmed bodyguards in late October (Oct. 21 according to U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, Oct. 20 according to the Stratfor Report) on his way to South Padre Island. Cardenas Vela might have been in a tough position because his uncle Osiel Cardenas is believed to have cooperated with the government and another uncle, Ezequiel Antonio “Tony Tormenta” Cardenas Guillen was killed in a firefight in Matamoros last year. But according to the Stratfor report, Cardenas Vela had taken the reigns of a faction of the Gulf Cartel called the Rojos. According to a report from Grupo Savant, the Rojos are headed by a capo named Juan Reyes “R-1” Mejia Gonzalez. But as the Rojos and Mejia Gonzalez are supposedly loyal to the Cardenas family, it stands to reason that Cardenas Vela might be an important member of the Rojos faction.

The Rojos, according to both the Stratfor and Grupo Savant report, are in a power struggle with the Metro, a faction at one time headed by Samuel “M-3” Flores Borrego. Flores Borrego was found dead in northern Mexico in September, and that faction is now headed by Jorge Eduardo “El Coss” Costilla Sanchez, at one time Osiel Cardenas’ right-hand man who later split leadership of the cartel with Antonio Cardenas, according to the Stratfor report.

The report speculates that Costilla Sanchez and the Rojos may have ratted Cardenas Vela out, using U.S. authorities to eliminate their rival. From the report:

Cartels usually try to avoid conducting hits on U.S. soil, which may explain why Costilla Sanchez’s faction may have tipped off U.S. authorities instead of killing him.
There has not been any confirmation that Los Metros was responsible for the tip to U.S. authorities, but even if it was not, it will benefit from the hit taken by its intra-cartel rivals with the loss of their leader. It appears Costilla Sanchez has already begun efforts to consolidate power before the Los Rojos faction has a chance to reorganize and name a new leader. Such efforts will likely include putting out orders to kill other Los Rojos faction leaders, which may explain why Jose Luis “Comandante Wicho” Zuniga Hernandez, believed to be Cardenas Vela’s deputy and operations leader of the Matamoros plaza, reportedly turned himself in to U.S. authorities without a fight near Santa Maria, Texas, on Oct. 28. The Los Metros faction will try to move quickly before the Sinaloa cartel or Los Zetas conclude that now is the time to make a move to seize control of the Gulf cartel’s territory.

Coincidentally, on Wednesday, the day after Zuniga Hernandez’s arrest was made public, firefights broke out in Matamoros.