Defining the Chinese dream

Amid growing rivalry with U.S., China must clearly explain its values

CaixinOnline

BEIJING (Caixin Online) — A new phase of Sino-American relations is poised to begin now that Xi Jinping has been confirmed as China’s next leader and Barack Obama re-elected U.S. president.

In both countries, the debate about foreign policy options has been robust, particularly on the bilateral relationship. This is the time to reflect on the past and look ahead to the future.

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The transfer of power has been smooth for both, with no noticeable change in the conduct of either’s foreign policy. Over the past year, China has advocated a win-win relationship of mutual respect between a superpower and an emerging power.

It was the approach Xi outlined on his visit to the United States in February and reiterated at November’s party congress. Meanwhile, Obama introduced the policy of rebalancing in his first term and has been taking steps to effect this “pivot” towards Asia.

The Sino-U.S. relationship has never been more important, and hope is high that Obama and the new team of Xi and Li Keqiang will do more to forge a relationship of co-operation, rather than confrontation.

The relationship has been highly transparent so far, and we’ve not seen the kind of misunderstanding, friction or behavior to “test the water” so common with new administrations. But the lack of strategic trust remains a huge challenge for both.

The Sino-U.S. relationship has never been more important, and hope is high that Obama and the new team of Xi and Li Keqiang will do more to forge a relationship of co-operation, rather than confrontation. The relationship has been highly transparent so far, and we’ve not seen the kind of misunderstanding, friction or behavior to “test the water” so common with new administrations. But the lack of strategic trust remains a huge challenge for both.

From Beijing’s standpoint, Washington’s rebalancing strategy has brought uncertainty to the region. The disputes over the Scarborough Shoal and the Diaoyu Islands, as well other rows between China and its neighbors, can be understood in this context.

America’s determination to be a key player in Asian security has emboldened regional countries to lean on it. The result is, when involved in a row with China, these countries have become unlikely to compromise.

Washington has repeatedly said it takes no side in the Sino-Japanese dispute over the Diaoyus. But if Japan hadn’t been a U.S. ally, would it have acted the way it did?

Of course, without the U.S. security guarantees, nationalism in Japan might grow even stronger and the calls to rearm through a change in constitution even louder, and that would destabilize the region.

The U.S. presence in Asia will only grow now that the Americans are slowly extricating themselves from the Middle East and Afghanistan. This is throwing a spanner in the works of China’s relationship with the rest of Asia, particularly its neighbors.

U.S. officials and analysts like to describe the bilateral relationship as one of co-operation and competition; in the context of China’s relations in its neighborhood, Washington and Beijing are clear rivals.

China is prepared to meet the challenge, but it should also fully prepare for any crisis. Moreover, Chinese diplomacy in the region must be more proactive to shore up the country’s influence.

Sino-U.S. rivalry is risky, and leaders on either side are well aware that any mishandling could lead to devastating conflict. This is why, over the past year, China has been clear that it is seeking a new path.

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