Through four weeks, fancy stats favor Miami Hurricanes

Some statistical food for thought:

Miami, which is one of 24 unbeaten Power Five teams, ranks No. 24 nationally in Football Outsiders and SBNation writer Bill Connelly’s S&P+ ratings.

Through three games, the Hurricanes score well in several advanced metrics. (Getty Images)Connelly designed the S&P+ system by culling play-by-play data of every FBS game, looking for efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives and turnovers. Further explanation here and here (and yes, much of it is adjusted for quality of competition, so the they ain’t played nobody! argument doesn’t apply).

Of note, Miami (3-0) is about as productive, according to S&P+, on offense as it is on defense. It is also projected to finish the regular season 9-3, with losses to Florida State, Clemson and Duke. S&P+ gives the Hurricanes a 10 percent probability of winning at FSU, 30 percent at home against Clemson and 37 percent at Duke.

It also sets UM’s win probability for Thursday’s game at Cincinnati at a comfortable 81 percent, projecting approximately a 40-24 win (note: in the preview video I’m shooting today, I’m prepared to pick the Hurricanes 38-17).

Miami scores highly in average field position, both offensively and defensively, and offensive success rate. It has also had some good luck with turnovers, with eight gained (second nationally).

The Hurricanes also rank No. 9 nationally in sack rate on standard downs (i.e. the downs in which the offense could either run or pass, not obvious passing situations like third-and-long). Miami sacks the quarterback on 10 percent of these downs, compared with the national average of 4.5 percent.

Another interesting stat is havoc rate, or “the percentage of plays in which a defense recorded a tackle for loss, forced a fumble or defensed a pass (intercepted or broken up).” Miami is No. 1 in the nation in havoc rate by defensive backs, 15th by linebackers and 32nd in defensive line. Overall? The Hurricanes are 16th in creatin’ havoc.

Two major areas in which Miami does not score well:

Offensive S&P+ performance on third down. Remember the five factors mentioned at the top (efficiency, explosiveness, and so on)? Miami ranks 127th of 128 teams in doing them on third downs. It is 15th on second downs, however.

Rush defense S&P+. UM is 124th overall, with especially poor ratings in adjusted line yards (121st), a stat that measures what a running back does after the offensive line does its work. Recall all those missed tackles against FAU and you get the picture. UM is also 115th in power success rate, or avoiding first downs or touchdowns on opposing rushes on third or fourth downs with two yards to go or fewer. Opponents have converted those at an 85.7 percent clip, compared with the national average of 69 percent. Not nice at all.

Author: Matt Porter

Matt Porter grew up in Gloucester, Mass., graduated from Emerson College and worked for the Boston Globe before joining the Post in 2009. He covers the University of Miami and college sports, and pitches in on coverage of South Florida sports teams including the Miami Heat and Miami Marlins.
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