On August 7, the country held a referendum to vote on a new constitution written by the military government, which supporters say will restore stability and which critics say will just entrench military control even more.

The constitution was approved, to plenty of speculation about why an electorate would vote for a constitution that only offers them a "semi-democracy."

In light of the Thai referendum, a new note from Macquarie Research examines the potential benefits of coups — the role they play in altering a country's national trajectory, and what makes one "successful." In other words, under what circumstances a military coup and dictatorship can actually put the country on a better path than it was on before.

“Military coups can be useful circuit breakers and sometimes, they even set countries on a different developmental path,” the report says. “However, successful coup-led resets are exceptionally rare.”

The main problem is that the military seldom sets up a strong civil and economic framework, or establishes solid institutions. They don’t leave that much to work with or grow on, so it's hard to have a strong transition out of a military dictatorship.

"But as always," the researchers write, "there are exceptions." Korea, Taiwan, Chile, and, to some extent, Spain are the classic examples of countries "where military coups paved the way to a much more efficient and successful civilian administrations."

So what makes a coup successful? What does a country have to look like, what stage does it have to be in, for a military dictatorship to be able to transition into civil and democratic rule? And could Thailand get there eventually?

In an attempt to answer these questions, the Macquarie researchers have come up with six factors that tend to lead to successful coups — meaning the coups eventually led to growth and progress — looking mainly at Chile, Korea, Taiwan, and Spain.

1. Homogeneity

The fourth conference of artillery personnel of the Korean People's Army (KPA) at the April 25 House of Culture, Pyongyang, December 5, 2015.REUTERS/KCNA

According to the report, Korea, Taiwan, Chile, and to a lesser extent Spain all had societies that were “essentially coherent, homogeneous, and did not have any significant racial, linguistic, or religious differences.” This is in sharp contrast to most of Africa and the Middle East — including Turkey, whose military recently attempted a coup.

2. Tradition of governance and administration

Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen speaks during an interview in Luque.Thomson Reuters

Successful coups tend to occur in countries that have a long tradition of established institutions and a long track record of governance, the report says, whether communist, fascist, or liberal. This is true of Korea, Taiwan, and Spain. In other words, it helps to already be a well-established state, instead of just being one of a “plethora of newly established states” that have no coherent institutions.

3. "Elites like to stay at home"

In successful transitions, the national elites believed they would be better off restructuring and rescuing various institutions, rather than migrating to safer countries. For example, in Korea, Taiwan, Chile, and Japan, the elites wanted to say in their own countries; but this was not true for decades in much of Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East.

4. Growing global economy and trade

South Koreans read the newspaper.ap

Successful transitions require a supportive global environment. There’s "no doubt" that a supporting trade and capital-market environment helped countries like Korea, Taiwan, and Chile continue restructuring, the authors say — although it’s doubtful that Thailand’s going to have that same benefit in today’s economy.

5. A long transition period

These things take time. According to the Macquarie researchers, "we cannot find any successful transition that takes less than a decade to complete." Chile’s military dictatorship lasted 17 years; Korea’s lasted 14; Taiwan reverted to democratic rule in the late 1980s, but the process wasn’t complete until 1996.

6. Enforcement

Taiwanese cadets march during a ceremony to mark the 92nd anniversary of the Whampoa Military Academy, in Kaohsiung, southern Taiwan, June 16, 2016.REUTERS/Tyrone Siu

Restructuring “inevitably requires the need to force inhabitants of a given country to alter their behavior, which in most cases is neither welcome nor wanted,” the report states. But unlike Korean, Taiwanese, and Chilean dictators, who the researchers describe as having a “stomach for blood,” the “consensus culture in Thailand is likely to make any strong enforcement difficult.”