Geoff Davis Resigns: Special Election

U.S. Representative Geoff Davis announced his resignation on July 31. Kentucky held special election to fill Davis' seat, which he initially planned to leave at the end of this term.[20][21][22]

Davis said a health issue came up in his family, and he chose to resign early in order to focus on his family.[22] He did not specify the health problem.[20]

As required by the U.S. Constitution, Kentucky scheduled a special election to fill the remainder of Davis' term, which ends in January 2013.[20] The election was set for the same time as the general election on November 6.[23]Thomas Massie (R) and Bill Adkins (D) are already set to vie for the next full term in the general election.[20]

Impact of redistricting

According to some political analysts[26], this could be the most solidly Republican district in the state as a result of the new map.[26] It picks up Shelby and part of Spencer County, as well as the Republican-leaning precincts in eastern Jefferson County while shedding Democratic counties of Fleming, Nicholas, Bath, Elliott Carter and parts of Boyd and Harrison.[26]

Registration statistics

As of October 24, 2012, District 4 had the following partisan registration breakdown according to the Kentucky State Board of Elections:

"Party advantage" is the percentage gap between the two major parties in registered voters. "Change in advantage" is the spread in difference of party advantage between 2010 and 2012 based on the congressional district number only.

District partisanship

FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2012 study

In 2012, FairVote did a study on partisanship in the congressional districts, giving each a percentage ranking (D/R) based on the new 2012 maps and comparing that to the old 2010 maps. Kentucky's 4th District became more Republican because of redistricting.[28]