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In the middle of the season, one of the most interesting, and common, fan refrains pointed out that the Brewers and Cubs shared similar records since the Brewers’ hot start. A simple way to look at it is to combine their May and June records. Even with a great June, the 31-25 Brewers were hardly leaps and bounds ahead of the 26-29 Cubs, in the minds of some. The general idea, of course, was to point out that save for their extreme starts (20-8 and 9-17, respectively), the Cubs and Brewers were rather close in the W-L department. I disagreed with this stance at the time, given that the Brewers had already proven their ability to put together two incredibly hot stretches of baseball through June.

2014:
Cubs (159 G): 602 RS / 699 RA
Brewers (159 G): 642 RS / 645 RA

Since July, the Cubs and Brewers have completely swapped places. At the end of June, a mere .500 record would have placed the Brewers at 90 wins; that pace would have signaled a 17% departure from their expected win total at that time. Instead of going 39-39, however, the Brewers crashed to a 31-47 pace (they are currently at 30-45 since July). Meanwhile, the Lakeview Nine are 36-42 since July. Hardly great, but those Cubs completely reversed the May/June advantage of the Brewers. In fact, it’s now to the point where the entire difference between the Cubs and Brewers on the season can be explained by the first month of the season.

I don’t like reducing the Brewers’ season to April, and I don’t think that calling that stretch the Brewers’ sole hot streak (or good stretch) of baseball is accurate. Yet, the sheer numbers are simply necessary to process this collapse: a new spin shows that since April, the 62-71 Cubs are perfectly even with the 61-70 Brewers. That the Cubs improved should not be a surprise, given that their organization slowly improved the roster with top prospects throughout the year. The surprise lies entirely with the gang of seasoned veterans 90 miles north.

The Brewers loss on Thursday guaranteed another losing “10 Game Set,” as the Brewers are 3-6 in their last nine games. Our beloved Milwaukee Nine scored 17 runs over those nine games, which requires an absolute explosion on Friday night to recover their performance for this 10 Game Set: previously, the Brewers’ lowest scoring 10 Game Sets in 2014 were 27, 33, 33, and 34 runs scored. Ironically, the Brewers pitchers really showed up to fight in the last stretch of the season, and they are currently on pace to challenge for their very best 10 Game Set of the season, beating out 23, 26, 27, and 37 runs allowed. Ultimately, with the pitchers allowing only 20 runs over their last nine games, prompting eight games within one- or two-runs, it’s refreshing to know that at least some Brewers were ready to compete for a playoff spot down the stretch.

Eric Jokisch is a Cubs organizational pitcher drafted in 2010 during the 11th round. The southpaw has worked a trio of games in Chicago, and will make his first MLB start against the Brewers. According to ESPN, Jokisch was touted by some in the Cubs organization as an unheralded hurler that can maximize three pitches. Theo Epstein himself praised Jokisch’s slider and change, although thus far the lefty throws his change nearly four times more frequently than his slider. Jakisch seems like a left-handed version of Kyle Hendricks: perhaps underappreciated by some, but ready to mix pitches and running fastballs when he reaches the big leagues.

With his last two outings, Matt Garza has fought his way back to average. With a solid outing against his former team. Garza can solidify one of his best seasons in a handful of years. In terms of innings pitched, some peripherals (like home run rate), and his overall value, Garza’s 2014 campaign is better than every season he has worked since 2011. This improvement — especially given Garza’s total workload — is a perfect sign for the beginning of Garza’s stay in Milwaukee, and with Yovani Gallardo’s resurgence, the Brewers have a solid starting core in the works for next year.

During his relatively rough September, Tsuyoshi Wada has swapped his slider and split. While he’s throwing both at a similar rate overall, he is currently favoring the splitter over the slider. It will be interesting to see which version of Wada the Brewers see to close the season: Wada has his pick of secondary pitching weapons, so one might expect him to double down on both his key breaking pitches to retire Brewers bats.

Wily Peralta has improved leaps and bounds in 2014, and one of the reasons is that he has been able to recover quickly from bad stretches of baseball. Most recently, Peralta closed August with some difficulty, but his September performance has been all around quality. Peralta will look to complete his season on a high note, and maybe even expand his 20+ run improvement in 2014. Improvements like Peralta’s make the Brewers’ collapse more difficult to digest, for if someone had told Brewers fans in March that Peralta would improve by more than two wins, Brewers fans would justifiably expect a strong team performance.

BrooksBaseball is working on a Beta Feature that includes text descriptions of pitching arsenals, which is a step closer to linking colloquial pitching terminology with hard data. Yet, Hendricks’s fastball still shows some of the difficulties of running a classification system:

“His fourseam fastball generates a godly amount of groundballs compared to other pitchers’ fourseamers, generates a ridiculously high number of swings & misses compared to other pitchers’ fourseamers, has much less armside movement than typical, has below average velo and has some natural sinking action.”

Really, Hendricks does not throw a true four-seamer whatsoever, which makes the comparison with other four-seamers intriguing, but unreliable. Hendricks’s game is geared so much toward his sinker that even his “four-seam” or “primary” fastball is at best a “running” or “riding” fastball. In this regard, BrooksBaseball gets it right by citing “natural sinking action,” although it should have natural sinking action because Hendricks is a sinker pitcher. I don’t mean this as a criticism of BrooksBaseball — they cannot police every classification, they cannot design a system that perfectly classifies every single pitch thrown. Some slow curves will be called eephus pitches, even when they’re not, and some slow curves will be grouped with faster curves, even if they’re different pitches. The same especially goes for fastballs, which raises the question: why don’t we retire the “four-seam” / “two-seam” distinction, which is a technical and mechanical name, in favor of a more fluid rising / riding / running / sinking distinction?

Fastballer Mike Fiers has been unable to slay the last two aces he faced, but the righty remains solid on the mound. Fiers has been throwing slightly harder in September, but that does not change this new separation between his “fastball” and “cutter” in 2014. His cutter sits squarely in that realm between slider-and-cutter, breaking four inches down and four inches away from his rising fastball. According to BrooksBaseball, Fiers has also been throwing a “sinker” more consistently, as his velocity rises, although the pitch itself is more of a riding fastball. From Fiers’s extremely high delivery point, it’s difficult to deliver a true sinker to batters. But, with another pitch to offer batters, Fiers is suddenly turning his emergency replacement status into a strong campaign to start in 2015.

If the Brewers had purposely set out to torment me during the last month with their feeble and futile and frustrating play, they could hardly have done a better job of it. It’s been so totally agonizing and exasperating that I’m not sure how to analyze the collapse.
One regret is that Khris Davis, one of our leading power hitters, and Scooter Gennett, one of our leading hitters for batting average, were held back from being full-time players. During the last Cardinals series, it must have been so very difficult for Davis not to get one start in three games. I’m seriously concerned that these two promising young players have been discouraged by being left out of too many games, and I think manager Ron Roenicke made a big mistake here.
I have a concern, too, about the way Roenicke has handled his relievers, but am less sure of myself in this case. Its seems that perhaps when one of our relievers is effective, he should be left in to pitch longer — maybe an inning or two — so as to avoid the risk of putting in another reliever who isn’t going to be effective; and as a way of not using too many relievers too often, thus keeping the bullpen fresher.
There really were no villains or heroes for the Brewers this season, except for perhaps Jonathan Lucroy on the plus side. I guess the biggest disappointment has to be Ryan Braun for his miserable fade at season’s end; perhaps his PED use was a way of trying to prevent wearing down during the course of a season, including nagging injuries.
Ultimately, the responsibility has to go to Ron Roenicke, and he should be fired. This is sad to say, because he seems like a good manager and a good man — but the overall malaise of the Brewers has been so utterly abysmal that the team needs a fresh start for next season.
I really like our team overall at pitching and in the field. It will be fun to discuss what improvements might be made, but I like our chances next season of contending for the division title. I’m hopeful that a new manager, and maybe a couple of new players, will provide the spark that was missing during a pitiful September.

I agree with your overall feeling about the team, and with Roenicke — I think he is a very good manager, but will probably be fired to spare a front office cleaning.

As for Gennett and Davis, I don’t think that’s an issue –Gennett has played in 136 G, Davis in 144 G. This is quite good for players who are really working their first full season. Furthermore, there is absolutely the issue of Gennett’s ability to hit lefties, and I just don’t think rest hurts Davis at this point — he’s worked a ton of PA, and been a very good bat.

As for the relievers, I just don’t think MLB managers can be expected to be that radical with staying with effective relievers. I would love to see more aggressive, radical, and forward thinking MLB managers, but bullpen management just can’t work that way — these guys have to manage to the stats, since there is so much $$$ resting on those saves and holds. It’s unfortunate, but true.

Here’s another way of thinking about Gennett: if he is a lefty platoon batter at 2B, he has a chance to work between 450-500 PA every year, especially if he continues to hit righties as well as he has. So, what’s the issue with having 450-500 solid PA from a 2B? That makes the other platoon side rather easy to figure out.

With the season almost over and a winning record uncertain, let play the what if game. My 3 biggest what-ifs this off-season are:
1.) What if Thornburg/Henderson hadn’t gotten injured?
2.) What if Fiers was called up before Nelson?
3.) What if the Morneau trade went through?

These will be the 3 I’ll be thinking about all winter. What are yours?

This is a great thinking exercise. My biggest what ifs go back to some of those key 6 R lead games — I’m thinking Peralta vs. Phillies and Gallardo vs. Cardinals. Both were key games in the July and August collapses.

My simple “what if” is, “What if this team limited the damage?” The 1-run losses, the slumps, I can understand that — but, I this collapse was total.

This total collapse you speak of. How does a team limit the damage? In the beginning of the year they went out and expected to win every night and I even remember a player saying exactly that. Then at the end of the year it seemed like they went out every night expecting to lose. How does that mental switch happen? How does it get flipped back? Was it fatigue and the long season being in front like a flogged racehorse sagging at the 1/4 pole? How did almost the entire pitching staff recover from that brutal stretch and pitch well the last few weeks? Why didn’t the offense? As this game is hugely mental it seems like this should be a huge focus for the team. Was RRR not strong enough to steer the ship in the rough seas? Does the team need strong leadership who doesn’t wilt in big moments? I want the team to hire people who are experts in applying pressure rather than succumbing to it. I want base runners who don’t give away outs and make pitchers sweat until they retire 3 batters. I want batters who take pitches and make pitchers sweat all the way to full counts. I want defenders who don’t give away outs to opposing offenses. Better yet I want defenders who steal hits from opposing offenses. I want pitchers to throw inside regularly. I want a manager who says not tonight, we are not giving this game away tonight “strike this M.F.’er out”. In the darkest part of my brain I also want the team to start a brawl with the Cardinals for no good reason but just because they are sick of getting beat.

I think the toughest part is, no one knows how this type of slump happens. I think it’s the ultimate inversion of the Brewers’ best approach — It’s tough to say that they really changed anything, I just think it didn’t work for whatever reason.

Those were tough games to swallow, but they were only 2 games. Slumps are a whole other story. If they don’t replace Roenicke, I don’t see how he can keep Narron and Kranitz. Bad runs happen, but slumps result from bad habits (poor mindset, failure to make adjustments, et.al.). Neither was very good at keeping their players on an even keel and playing fundamentally sound baseball.

My last what if. What if the Brewers could have recognized the slider at the plate?

I think some of this comes down to player evaluation, in other words who plays and who doesn’t, and also who plays in key situations.
For example, the stats about Khris Davis cited by Nicholas are important — but still, to sit him all three games of that crucial last Cardinal series really bothered me. Since the trade deadline, Khris’ playing time was cut back significantly, and I think this really hurt the team. Why not sit down with Khris and tell him that he’s going to be a big part of the playoff push, and really pump him up, and inspire him to excel down the stretch in his first full season — against lefties and righties?
Given that Gerardo Parra played well for the Brewers, but why not start him at times for all three outfielders instead of just Khris, giving Parra perhaps one or two starts per week in addition to subsitute time, as well as keeping all the starting outfielders fresh from a day off every week or two. This seems especially relevant with Carlos Gomez tailing off just a little in what was still an outstanding season, and Ryan Braun falling off miserably in what turned out to be on balance a very mediocre season.
One player I really struggled with this season is Rickie Weeks, because I’ve been a pretty big fan of his over the years and tried to be really patient with him, but he seems to have been really bad for the last three of four seasons at least. Is it just me, or does it seem that Rickie takes fastballs down the middle, flails at sliders breaking well off the outside of the plate, and almost never comes through in the clutch. I’d rather have taken my chances with Scooter Gennett hitting against lefties, or someone else.
I think Martin Maldonado should have gotten significantly more playing time at catcher and first base, which also would have had the benefit of resting Jonathan Lucroy once a week or so, and allowing him to play first base at times. Especially with Lyle Overbay and Mark Reynolds faltering at the plate, why not go more with Jonathan and Martin at first.
It seems like before the all-star break, Francisco Rogdriguez was really shaky, which was largely hidden by him getting many of his saves with two or three run leads. Also, he had very few clean appearances (which I would define as facing four batters or less in an inning and not giving up any runs).
I’m glad Roenicke stuck with Jean Segura this season, but he still could have given him a couple of days off per week as he slumped. Elian Herrera seemed to play well when he had an opportunity, but then to be forgotten in September.
My impression is that Ron Roenicke is a good manager, maybe very good, but I wonder how well he chose his players this season, and how well he motivated them. I think he has to go because of the sheer magnitude of the collapse, but I wish him well a la Ned Yost with the Royals. By the way, one question for the offseason is the value of a leadoff hitter like Norichika Aoki,

I mean to say that K-Rod seemed to start slumping before the all-star break (including that infamous Matt Holliday home run), and then was really shaky after the break. I still think Jonathan Broxton was the way to go, although I realize he had a couple of really bad outings in crunch time.

As for Davis, I believe it was publicized that RRR indeed spoke with him about his role. Parra also started for all 3 OF, but the fact is, Davis was struggling the worst of the Brewers 3 OF. There’s nothing really wrong with that, it’s just how things happened.

Weeks had a great season — check out his closing line. Best AVG, and I think 4th best OBP of his career.

I’m not sure what Maldonado and Herrera would have done to end the collapse; I think they’re solid bench options, but I’m not sure that they were answers. But, it did get to the point where they could have tried anything to win.

First of all, and most of all, I really appreciate your replies to our fan comments, Nicholas. It’s great to get your take, agree or disagree — not that you have to respond every time.
It’s hard to imagine any outfielder having a bigger slump down the stretch than Ryan Braun. I’m still trying to root for the guy despite the heartbreak of his cheating and lying — and not being sure if he ever has given a satisfying explanation or apology — but it seems clear to me that he really bombed down the stretch,
As for Khris, I wonder how much of his fall-off was due to his diminished role after the acquisition of Parra — that had to be a disappointment. Ultimately, it was up to Khris to make himself harder to keep out of the lineup;, but then again, a manager can do a lot to instill confidence in a young player.
This is relevant to guys like Scooter and Martin and Elian: Did Roenicke really get the most out of these guys by the way he played them and the way he communicated with them? I really don’t know, but I have my doubts.
With all of my comments, I realize that my knowledge is not the best, and I might be missing a lot of important stuff that would change my perspective.
For example, I hope I’m wrong about Rickie Weeks, but, to me, he was terrible this season, and his stats are misleading if they show him to be a dependable hitter in important situations rather than a real bust. I truly wish him well in the future, but I’ve pretty much run out of patience with him as a Brewer.

It’s always my pleasure to respond when I can — I truly appreciate our readers at DoU, and I love debating baseball.

I am sympathetic to the importance that roles play for baseball clubs, and maybe even for player performance. In the case of Gennett and Davis, though, I think their roles were very clear, and both had very good seasons for their first full run through 162. I think the same goes for Maldonado and Herrera — both are bench players who should know their roles clearly, and remain necessary members of a winning club.

I don’t know what to say about Weeks to convince you: he batted .275 / .357 / .452 overall, was above average against RHP and LHP, was extremely above average as a 2B, and notably above average as a PH. Split by split, he was solid — RISP, RISP 2 outs, late & close, tie game, etc. (I would agree that his defense was not good, again, but that’s entirely another issue. The man absolutely succeeded with his bat, making 2B one of the club’s reliable positions with Gennett).