THE FIVE MOST OVERRATED DRAFT REPUTATIONS- 2017 VERSION

The 2017 Draft Analyzer is out and is available at this google doc link.

As we near the 2018 Draft, I'll be looking at a few things we learned in this version of the analysis.

Simply put, there are some teams out there that just aren't as good at the draft as they used to be. Unfortunately, our memories have created a bit of a historical bias when it comes to thinking about how well these teams draft. In no particular order:

Now, before that chart can be digested, here are the base line averages for the league: 10 starters, 16 players from Rounds 1-4 (contributors), 9 from Rounds 5+ (depth) with a close to even split between offensive and defensive players.

Ozzie Newsome has not had the touch in recent years that he had during his earliest days of his tenure. Arthur Brown, Matt Elam, and Breshad Perriman represent the highest amount of bust value considering their locations in the draft. Plus, the total for eight starters is deceiving. Chris Moore is not a star and is a good example of a player that would be replaceable, especially if the Ravens trade for Jarvis Landry. Matt Judon is not likely to be a Pro Bowl player, either. Yes, C.J. Mosley and Marlon Humphrey are impact players. Ronnie Stanley is also a long-term player. The Ravens are not among the dregs of the league, but it seems that Newsome has lost a bit off his fastball. When off-season articles are putting hopes into Chuck Clark, one knows that things are not exactly how they used to be.

I don't put a lot of stock in awards of any kind. I am not entertained by Gold Gloves, the Oscars, or MVPs. However, after looking at the Seahawks and their draft attempts over the past five seasons, it is a wonder how they kept the team competitive this long. Also, Russell Wilson probably should win the MVP every season. The Ravens may not be in the upcoming "Bottom Five" article, but the Seahawks will be.

What is interesting about the Seattle story is that they were not known for being particularly adept with high draft picks. We have all talked about the James Carpenter story. Guess what is worse? He isn't even in these numbers because he was a 2011 pick. I'm sorry. I got off the topic. The Seahawks built their dynasty (In modern terms, it probably was) with fantastic picks of players in late rounds and with signings off the streets. There are no Richard Shermans or Russell Wilsons from this group. There is a Wilson, though. That's Luke Willson, the lone remaining player from the universally bad 2013 Draft. He's set to be a free agent.

Like the Ravens, the starters that they do have are not impressive. Paul Richardson is probably not going to be on the team next year. Justin Britt will probably be the only guy left from the 2014 Draft. German Ifedi, Jarran Reed and Rees Odhiambo are not big names. Those are the 3 starters from the 2016 Draft. Odhiambo ended the year on IR.

So, what about those late round gems? Here is a non-encompassing list: Ty Powell, Jared Smith, Jimmy Staten, Kiero Small, Obum Gwacham (real name), Kenny Lawler and Alex Collins. There is not one impact player on that list. Also, I only listed Collins because he might have been that gem, but he isn't on the team any more. Where is he? Baltimore, of course. The Seahawks either got enamored with their own ability to produce value from unreliable areas or just got lucky in the past. After all, there are only 30 sixth and seventh round starters in the entire league. Those can't all be Seahawks. In fact, none of them are.

Russell Wilson keeps the entire team afloat. I guess that point didn't need much validation, but we found some more anyway.

How can a team that makes the Super Bowl every other year and makes the AFC Championship virtually every season make a list like this? They can make it by not being as good at drafting as people think they are.

For those who do not know the history of The Draft Analyzer, it was comments about Bill Belichick that got me to create the it. I got sick of hearing how great the Patriots were and I wanted to prove it. Back then, I learned that Hoodie's true genius was nothing more than volume drafting. He is probably the Godfather of it. Other teams have taken up his idea and tried to do it themselves. Those teams include the Browns, Seahawks, Niners and Vikings. They have had varying success or incomplete grades. He wasn't then, and isn't now, better than anyone else at developing his core, keeping players or avoiding busts. He just had more guys to weed through.

What's interesting about the Patriots is that Belichick may have showed a change in philosophy by trying to add players with picks in 2017 that could help him go for a couple Super Bowl runs before he retires. He simply did not trade for a player like Brandin Cooks in the past. He'd sign them, but he wouldn't use picks to get them. If I didn't include third wide receivers and a couple extra players as starters due to schemes, the Pats would have even less home drafted starters. Joe Cordona and James White are each included here. Next season, these stats will have a boost with Deatrich Wise Jr. making an impact by the end of the 2017 season.

When looking at these numbers, the appreciation for Belichick's on-field/preparation brilliance manages to grow. How is that possible?

This one surprised me. Whenever the Vikings are talked about on a broadcast, a recent draft pick like Xavier Rhodes, Anthony Barr, Stefon Diggs, Trae Waynes or Eric Kendricks always seem to get mentioned. Well, those names are the bulk of the impressive picks over the last five seasons. Plus, the number is bumped up due to Dalvin Cook beginning the year as the #1 running back. We hope that won't change in 2018.

Obviously, it didn't help that Teddy Bridgewater got hurt. It hasn't helped that Laquon Treadwell is just a name on the team. Pat Elflein is likely to help the numbers next year. The Vikings have built a great team over time with smart moves and a great coach. It has not been as much about the draft as we think.

However, the Vikings have incredible depth and these numbers can change in one season. Maybe I shouldn't put so much emphasis on impact starters, but isn't that what the draft is all about? A team with impact starters on rookie contracts can pay for stars, extend current ones and have sustained success. A team without them end up overpaying or buying too free agents, stretching players into roles they should not be in, and make it harder to create a winning structure.

I'm kidding, of course. I could not find a fifth team where the known reputation seemed to be opposite of the numbers. The Rams might be getting better, but they had a bad reputation before, so I don't think the narrative has changed on them.

I wanted to showcase the Browns somewhere and I am not sure where else I will get the opportunity. When I first did the analysis, the bad teams in the draft included the Browns, Bears, Chiefs and Rams. The Rams got better in every way the day Jeff Fisher left town. The Chiefs got Andy Reid. The Bears are still bad at drafting NFL Players. The Browns probably are, but they are so hard to evaluate because of the front office turnover. They probably need an extra three years from now before they get any grade besides "Incomplete."

Still, things don't look good. They tried their hand at volume drafts and have not seen much return yet. The 2015 Draft is probably not salvageable. Nate Orchard is probably going to be the best player out of that one. That puts more pressure on the 2016 Draft. If Corey Coleman isn't at least a 70 catch, 900 yard receiver with 6-7 scores this season, there will be more pressure on the 2017 Draft. And so goes the wheel. The Browns are a great example for what might be the worst possible situation. With front office turnover, new schemes every year, and horrible misses like Justin Gilbert and Johnny Manziel at the top of the draft, the team will not have a chance without more time. Plus, they have to get things right.

It doesn't look like that Hue Jackson is a good coach. When being a player's coach is the best thing people usually say about the guy in charge in this modern NFL, it probably means he isn't a great coach. Every coach needs to be a player's coach. Also, it ignores the fact that Jackson has spent a lot of time throwing his players under the bus when he oversaw a team that ignored the run despite scoring high in those metrics from places like Football Outsiders and PFF. It ignores the fact that the coaching staff put a young quarterback in position to throw another key interception late in a half or during a close game over and over again.

Should the Browns make my list of the five worst drafting teams in the last five years? Sure. But it feels pretty unfair to do so. In a lot of ways, they haven't had a chance.