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Thursday, February 19, 2015

Oscar Winner Predictions: Picture, Director and Writing

Final set of predictions - Picture, Director and the two screenplay categories.

Best Adapted Screenplay

5. Inherent Vice – Paul Thomas Anderson

For Him: Paul Thomas Anderson has
been nominated for four writing Oscars at this point – and lost the first
three. Out of all the authors to adapt, trying to do that to Thomas Pynchon
must have been daunting – and he did it brilliantly.

Against Him: All of
that got him the nomination – but he’s up against four Best Picture nominees,
and his film didn’t get in. One day, it will look ridiculous that he hasn’t won
already – but in the here and now, he doesn’t have a chance.

4. The Theory of Everything – Anthony McCarten

For Him: The Academy clearly
likes the movie quite a bit – and his work is understated and sensitive,
finding the people beneath the surface.

Against Him: Truly,
the only elements of the movie that have received universal praise has been the
acting – the writing seems like an afterthought – so I think he doesn’t have
much of a chance.

3. American Sniper – Jason Hall

For Him: He was friendly with the
subject, knew it inside out, and crafted a movie that both pays tribute to him,
and allows you to question him at the same time. The film has become a huge hit
– and in many ways, Hall has become its principal spokesman, since Clint hasn’t
said much.

Against Him: The
fact that the film has become a huge hit with the Fox News crowd (who I think
misrepresent the film, but I digress) – but that may not sit well with the
mainly liberal academy, which will walk away for it.

2. Whiplash – Damien Chazelle

For Him: They obviously really
like Chazelle’s film – a Best Picture nominee, and likely winner for Supporting
Actor. He didn’t have a chance when everyone thought it was an original
screenplay – but since moving to the adapted category (he made a short last
year with this premise), he all of a sudden has a chance. He is the only
writer-director in this category who has a chance.

Against Him: I think
many will think giving Simmons the Supporting Actor Oscar will be enough for
Whiplash. It will have a lot of support, but also some detractors. Of all the
elements of the film, the screenplay is probably the least praised element of
it.

1. The Imitation Game – Graham Moore

For Him: They really do like the
film, which for a while people thought was the frontrunner to win the Best
Picture Oscar. Now that it’s not, this is likely the only big Oscar the film
could get – and most likely will.

Against Him: A lot
of people do not actually love The Imitation Game – they like it, they respect
it, but they don’t love it. I think Inherent Vice, Whiplash and American Sniper
all have passionate fans – so that could push it out.

Who Will Win: The Imitation Game. Consensus
usually trumps passion at the Oscars – so this film with broad support will
beat the ones with smaller, more passionate fanbases. A genuine four way race
though – anything expect Inherent Vice wouldn’t be shocking.

Who Should Win: Inherent Vice. This
truly is one of the best writing jobs in years – taking a book that many
thought was unadaptable, and turned into a great movie.

Least of the Nominees: The Theory of Everything. I really thought the movie
was rather straight forward and uninteresting – and it stems from the
screenplay playing it safe all the way through.

Who Should Have Been Here: Gone Girl. It boggles
my mind that Flynn’s screenplay, from her own novel, didn’t get in to this
category this year. It was already a weak category, and she wrote arguably the
most talked about film of the year – and did it brilliantly. It’s clear now
that the Academy just really didn’t like the movie.

Best Original Screenplay

5. Nightcrawler – Dan Gilroy

For Him: It is a great screenplay
– the work of a longtime screenwriter finally doing his best work. The film had
a lot of industry support, before slightly disappointing on nomination day.

Against Him: The
Academy clearly didn’t like the film as much as critics groups and guilds did.
It is the only nomination the film got – so the nomination is the award.

4. Foxcatcher – E. Max Fyre & Dan
Futterman

For Them: The
pair got a lot of praise for their work here – taking a complex, true story and
widdling it down to its bare essentials, and crafting three great characters
out of it as well. They clearly really like the film.

Against Them: But I
don’t think they truly love the film. When Foxcatcher gets praised, it’s mainly
for the performances and the direction of Miller – not the screenplay.

3. Boyhood – Richard Linklater

For Him: He wrote this film over
a 12 year span, one year at a time, and crafted a universal movie about growing
up and family. It is likely the Best Picture and Director Oscar winner – and
they often win Screenplay as well.

Against Him: But if wins
those, Linklater will already get his Oscar. The screenplay, while brilliant,
was not written quite the same way they normally are – crafting the whole film
at the outset. He did it one year at a time. His direction has been more
praised than his screenplay.

For Them: The
single biggest group in the Academy – the actors – loved the movie, and may
well want to award the screenplay that gave so many actors great roles. If
Linklater is winning Best Director, this would be a chance to give Inarritu an
Oscar as well. It won the Golden Globe. It may well be the Oscar frontrunner
for Best Picture.

Against Them: Does
anyone really talk about the screenplay. The direction, the performances, the
cinematography, etc. are what people talk about with Birdman – not really the
screenplay.

1. The Grand Budapest Hotel – Wes Anderson
& Hugo Guiness

For Them: Wes Anderson has been a
well-respected filmmaker for nearly two decades now – and the writers have
liked him more than the other branches (this is his third nomination). The film
is the nomination leader, and while it will almost certainly win some of the
Below the Line Oscars, this really is its only chance to win a major Oscar.

Against Them: It is
competing against the two Oscar frontrunners for Best Picture – either of which
could easily beat Anderson – a director they have not really embraced before. He
won the WGA – although Birdman was ruled ineligible there.

Who Will Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel. It
could go any of three ways – but I think Anderson wins here, just like Jonze
did last year. It will be close.

Who Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel. This
was the most memorable, inventive, funny, quotable screenplay of the year – and
so this is what I would go with.

Least of the Nominees: Birdman. I like the screenplay for Birdman – it
really is a strong lineup this year – but yes, it would rank fifth for me.

Who Should Have Been Here: Winter Sleep. No, it
had no chance to get nominated – but how wonderful would it have been if the
Academy had found room for a three hour, twenty minute Turkish film – with a
lot of talking in it. I would have loved it.

Best Director

5. Bennett Miller for Foxcatcher

For Him: Foxcatcher was one of
the best directed films of the year – and the Academy quite clearly loves
Miller, as he has picked up his second nomination in just three films (and the
one he didn’t get nominated for, Moneyball, did get nominated for Best
Picture).

Against Him: You
simply do not win the Best Director Oscar unless your film is also nominated
for Best Picture. Miller’s isn’t, so his campaign is done before it starts.

4. Morten Tyldum for The Imitation Game

For Him: He has directed a film
that is quite clearly one of the Academy’s favorites – and with Harvey
Weinstein behind it, the film has a decent shot at some awards – including Best
Picture, which may just pull Tyldum along with it.

Against Him: But
that’s not likely – even if The Imitation Game does win Best Picture, its
unlikely Tyldum actually wins Best Director. He has almost no name recognition,
and he hasn’t really won any precursors.

3. Wes Anderson for The Grand Budapest
Hotel

For Him: A longtime beloved
auteur has finally broken through with the Academy – having scored the most
nominations (tied with Birdman) of anything. No one can deny Anderson’s
directorial hand here, and even if he hasn’t won before, some will still think
he’s overdue.

Against Him: Anderson
may well win an Oscar this year – but it’s for Original Screenplay, not
director. He just doesn’t quite have the buzz or the precursor support of the
top two.

2. Alejandro G. Innaritu for Birdman

For Him: His film is a dazzling,
technical achievement – the long, unbroken takes, the seamless editing, the highly
original score – to go along with great performances – three of them were
nominated, more than any other film. Innaritu has been a favorite with the
Academy since his first film, Amores Perros, a decade ago – and he’s never won
before.

Against Him: While
Birdman has passionate supporters, it also has some who just downright hate it
– which in a close race, could kill him.

1. Richard Linklater for Boyhood

For Him: He spent 12 years making
this film, a massive undertaking that Linklater made into one seamless film –
more a feat of directing, than writing. He has won every precursor he possibly
could. He is a well-respected vet that the Academy has finally embraced.

Against Him: Some
see the film as a gimmick – as if every film isn’t on some level or another. The
winner of the DGA award almost always win here – and he didn’t do it.

Who Will Win: Richard Linklater for Boyhood.
Again,
the smart money probably says Innaritu – but my gut still says Linklater. I
actually can easily foresee the two movies splitting the top two prizes – but I
cannot decide which will win what, so I’ll stick with Boyhood for this and
Picture, and assume I’ll get one right.

Who Should Win: Wes Anderson for The Grand
Budapest Hotel. The other auteur, who has refined his style, in
his greatest film made my favorite film this year – so I would go for Anderson
easily –as much as I loved Linklater.

Least of the Nominees: Morten Tyldum for The Imitation Game. The film is a competently
directed to be sure – but are we really giving out Oscar nominations for competence?

Who Should Have Been Here: Ava DuVernay for
Selma. It’s sad for that DuVernay didn’t get nominated for two
reasons – the first, and least important, is that it would have made history as
the first African American woman ever nominated for this award. The second is
that she deserved it, for a stunning directorial job.

Best Picture

8. Whiplash

For It: Nearly everyone who sees
Whiplash enjoys it – it is viscerally entertaining – and should get fairly
broad support, since it’s below the credits are as fine as the above the lines
one. It’s probably the darkest of the 8 nominees, so that will attract some.

Against It: Money
doesn’t matter as much as it once did in the Oscar race – but it still matters,
and Whiplash doesn’t look like it’s going to crack $10 million at the box
office, which would make it far and away the lowest grossing winner in a long
time. No director nominated hurts it. Many will feel that the award for
supporting, that it will win, is going to be enough for this small film.

7. The Theory of Everything

For It: This is really the only
love story in the mix – hell, sadly, it’s the only film nominated with a lead
role for a woman – and that may attract some people. It’s inoffensive enough
that I don’t see that many people outright hating the film.

Against It: But how
many people actually love it either? The acting has gotten far more kudos than
the film itself – and there is another film about a British genius that got
more overall nominations. No best director hurts it too much.

6. Selma

For It: The biggest story in the
days following the nominations was how poorly Selma did – with many people
outraged. That could rally the support of its many fans – to place it high on
their ballots. There was talk that many didn’t see the film – which probably
hurt its nomination total – if that changes, it could rally more support.
Everyone seems to love the film – except the voices shouting it down.

Against It: Really,
it would take a hell of lot of support for a film to win that was only
nominated for one other nomination – for Best Song of all things. The lack of
nominations will probably kill its chances – no matter how much people love it,
they don’t want to vote for a film they feel cannot win.

5. American Sniper

For It: It has become a genuine
box office phenom – grossing more than $100 million in the opening weekend
alone – which is more than any other film in total. It is Clint, who is
royalty, and Bradley Cooper, who has now been nominated three years in a row.
They have awarded war films in the past.

Against It: The
tremendous controversy around the film and its embrace by conservatives (not
the biggest group in Hollywood) probably means they are staying far away from
actually giving it the Best Picture Oscar. Clint may be royalty – but he didn’t
get in for Best Director.

4. The Imitation Game

For It: The safest choice that
has a serious chance to win. A modest box office hit, respectful reviews,
Academy friendly subject matter, a massive Harvey Weinstein run campaign. It’s
hard to hate The Imitation Game.

Against It: For me,
it’s also hard to love it. It’s probably far too safe, perhaps even for the
stodgy Academy. If it was going to win, you would think it would have won a
major precursor – which it hasn’t.

3. The Grand Budapest Hotel

For It: It is tied for the most
nominations of any film – which can be a sign of broad support. It is also one
of the highest grossers among the nominees – another sign. It has support from
many different branches. They have finally embraced Wes Anderson – and done so
in a big way.

Against It: The
fact that they have never embraced Anderson before could point out that they
still are not ready to do so for the big prize. The one branch that didn’t
embrace the film is the actors – and they are the biggest ones. Anderson is on
his way to more Oscar support in the future (and he may well win in the
screenplay category this year) – but for the big one, he’ll have to wait
awhile.

2. Birdman

For It: Actors love films about
actors – just look at The Artist a few years ago. This film is an acting
showcase, but also a technical one – which is why it is tied for the most
nominations. It’s a great comeback story for Keaton, and the most popular film
yet by a director the Academy has embraced before – although not for the win
quite yet. It won the SAG Ensemble award – a good sign, but one everyone saw
coming, and the PGA Award – a better sign, that no one saw coming.

Against It: Among
the top contenders, it is far and the away the most love it or hate it film –
it will be ranked #1 on a lot of ballots, but I can see it being ranked # 8 on
quite as few as well. With the Oscar systems we know have, consensus trumps
passion. (then again, it did win the PGA, which is the only other awards group
who uses the Academy’s ridiculous ranking system for the win).

1. Boyhood

For It: The film has quietly
chugged along all season – debuting at Sundance, releasing in the summer, becoming
the quiet frontrunner while seeing all the other contenders come and go while it’s
just kept on going. The massive ambition of the film, the 12 year undertaking,
etc. will have many in awe. It is clearly the critics favorite as well.

Against It: Linklater
has never been an Oscar favorite before – and Boyhood is every inch a Linklater
film. It didn’t make a ton money either. It isn’t the most Oscar friendly
movie. Birdman came on much stronger than I expected down the stretch.

Who Will Win: Boyhood. I
thought through much of the fall that something would come along to knock it
out of the top spot – and nothing really did, until the late surge by Birdman.
The smart money is probably with Birdman – but my gut still says Boyhood.

Who Should Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel. I have been
a long-time fan of Wes Anderson – and I think this is his best to date, and the
best of the year. It’s a beautiful, funny, brilliant film.

Least of the Nominees: The Theory of Everything. I still say the two lead
performances are top notch – but the nothing else about the movie really is. If
you want to know why Stephen Hawking was a genius, you won’t find out here. It’s
so safe, so stodgy, so bland that if it hadn’t become an Oscar film, I would
have forgotten about the film by now.

Who Should Have Been Here: Gone Girl. I don’t
get why the Academy didn’t embrace Gone Girl. Do they not realize that this is
precisely the type of adult hit that they need to make them more relevant. Was
there a more talked about, or argued about film, of the fall. And everyone saw
it. And it’s also a legitimately great film too boot. Don’t get this one.

About Me

I am an accountant, living in Brantford, ON - and although I am married and have beautiful daughter, I still find time to watch a lot of movies. This blog is mostly reviews of new movies - with other musing thrown in as well.