Incumbents clash in primaries

Voters in six states — California, Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota — head to the polls on Tuesday to pick candidates in House elections. On the ballot are three incumbent vs. incumbent races, dozens of open seats and one special election.

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Much of the attention is focused on California, where an independent commission redrew the state’s 53-seat congressional map, making competitive many districts that have not been seriously contested in years. The state will also test for the first time it’s new jungle primary system, in which the top two finishers advance to the general election, regardless of party affiliation. That could create an intriguing dynamic in some districts in November if Democrats take on fellow Democrats and Republicans face off against Republicans.

The night’s headliner races are in Southern California, where longtime Democratic Reps. Howard Berman and Brad Sherman are competing for a seat, and in northern New Jersey, where Reps. Bill Pascrell and Steve Rothman — Democratic colleagues and onetime friends — are locked in battle.

Here’s POLITICO’s look at what to watch in Tuesday’s House primary fest.

California

30th District

Berman has unloaded a whopping $3.4 million in his closely watched duel against Sherman, who’s spent about $2.1 million. A pro-Berman super PAC has poured in an additional $400,000-plus. Yet as the primary approaches, Sherman has the upper hand.

A University of Southern California poll released over the weekend shows Sherman leading Berman 31 percent to 24 percent, and advisers to both members say Sherman is ahead. While Berman has emerged as the establishment favorite, winning endorsements from Gov. Jerry Brown, both of the state’s senators and nearly all of California’s Democratic House delegation, Sherman is benefiting from the fact that he’s previously represented more of the San Fernando Valley seat that the two members have been drawn into.

The Berman vs. Sherman clash is almost certain to head to November. But if Berman finishes behind his colleague by double digits, Democrats say it will be hard for him to go hat in hand to the Hollywood moguls who have powered his campaign and convince them that the general election will offer different results.

44th District

Rep. Janice Hahn is regarded as the strong favorite in her race against fellow Democratic Rep. Laura Richardson, who has been under a cloud of ethical scrutiny for much of her five-year tenure in the House. After Richardson was thrown into the same Compton district as Hahn, her campaign was rocked by revelations that she’s under investigation by the House Ethics Committee for reports that she used congressional staff to conduct political work.

While Richardson is poised to benefit from the district’s significant African-American population, the bigger question is how Latino voters — who make up nearly a majority — will break. A weak Richardson performance in the primary will lead many to write her off for November.

15th District

Democratic Rep. Pete Stark is a Bay Area institution — the 20-term, 80-year-old congressman is the fifth-longest-serving member of the House and the dean of the California delegation.

Yet Stark suddenly finds himself in a dogfight, pitted in a primary against Eric Swalwell, a 31-year-old Dublin City councilman who has waged an energetic campaign by outraising the incumbent and running TV ads painting Stark as long past his prime.

The peril Stark faces is largely of his own making. An irascible pol known for his history of controversial statements, Stark has been forced to apologize for lodging several false accusations against Swalwell, including that the challenger had accepted contributions from a conservative newspaper columnist. Redistricting also hasn’t been kind to Stark: He hasn’t represented around half of the newly drawn district, which encompasses part of the East Bay.

Stark is almost assured a spot in the final two. But a first-place Swalwell finish or even a strong second-place showing will signal that momentum has shifted strongly in the challenger’s direction.