Clinton Leads by 6 Points

Monday, November 07, 2016

Most expect Clinton to win, few believe system is rigged

West Long Branch, NJ - Hillary Clinton is currently ahead of Donald Trump by 6 points among likely voters. This is down from the 12 point lead she had in mid-October but slightly larger than the 4 point lead she had in September. Very few voters, though, say that they have changed their vote because of breaking news in the last several days. The latest Monmouth University Poll also finds the vast majority of voters believe that the election outcome will be determined fairly rather than because the system was rigged.

Currently, 50% of likely voters support Clinton and 44% back Trump, with 4% supporting Libertarian Gary Johnson and 1% backing Jill Stein of the Green Party. Clinton held a larger 50%+ to 38% lead before the final presidential debate in mid-October and a slimmer 46% to 42% edge right before the first debate in late September.

Only 4% of registered voters say they learned something in the past ten days that caused them to change their vote. The major movement was a drop in the number of undecided and third party votes and an increase in Trump support.

"A key finding in the poll is that Clinton's vote share continues to hover near the 50 percent mark while Trump's support has been more volatile," said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

Trump currently leads among white voters by 54% to 37% mainly due to a 59% to 30% advantage among white men. He leads by a much smaller margin of 49% to 44% among white women. Clinton has a 79% to 13% advantage among non-white voters.

Regardless of who they support, a majority of voters nationwide (57%) think that Clinton will probably emerge as the victor on Tuesday. Just 28% think Trump will win. Clinton voters (87%) are more confident than Trump voters (62%) that their candidate will be the president-elect. Among those who believe Clinton will triumph, 84% say she will win fair and square while 11% say she will win mainly because the system is rigged. Among those who believe Trump will prevail, 92% say he will win fair and square while 4% say he will win mainly because the system is rigged.

"A very small number of voters anticipate a rigged election despite all the buzz about this being a concern," said Murray.

The Monmouth University Poll also finds that 70% of voters would have preferred that the Republican nominee was someone other than Trump and 62% of voters would have preferred that the Democratic nominee was someone other than Clinton. Slightly more Trump voters (46%) than Clinton voters (40%) wish that the party nominee they are actually casting their vote for was someone other than the candidate whose name appears on their ballots.

"It is a telling sign of the sad state of this election that nearly half of both Clinton and Trump voters seem to want a do-over for their party's nominee," said Murray.

In other poll results, Clinton's personal rating has declined slightly since October while Trump's rating has ticked up. Currently, 37% of all likely voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton and 54% have an unfavorable view of her. This compares with a 41% favorable to 50% unfavorable likely voter rating last month. A similar 34% of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Trump and 55% have an unfavorable view of him. This is up from a 27% favorable to 62% unfavorable likely voter rating last month.

The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from November 3 to 6, 2016 with 802 registered voters in the United States. The results in this release based on all registered voters have a margin of error of ± 3.5 percent. Results based on likely voters only have a margin of error of ± 3.6 percent. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.

QUESTIONS AND RESULTS

(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)

1/2. If the election for President was today, would you vote for Donald Trump the Republican, Hillary Clinton the Democrat, Gary Johnson the Libertarian, or Jill Stein of the Green Party? [ IF UNDECIDED: If you had to vote for one of the following candidates at this moment, who do you lean toward - Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton?] [ NAMES WERE ROTATED ]

Registered voters

42% Donald Trump

49% Hillary Clinton

4% Gary Johnson

1% Jill Stein

1% (VOL) Other candidate

1% (VOL) Undecided

2% (VOL) No one

Likely voters

44% Donald Trump

50% Hillary Clinton

4% Gary Johnson

1% Jill Stein

2% (VOL) Other candidate

1% (VOL) Undecided

0% (VOL) No one

HEAD TO HEAD - TRUMP v. CLINTON [Johnson/Stein/Other supporters reassigned to major party nominee they lean toward]:

Registered voters

42% Donald Trump

50% Hillary Clinton

5% (VOL) Other candidate

1% (VOL) Undecided

2% (VOL) No one

Likely voters

44% Donald Trump

50% Hillary Clinton

5% (VOL) Other candidate

1% (VOL) Undecided

0% (VOL) No one

[ QUESTIONS 3 & 4 WERE ROTATED ]

3. Is your general impression of Donald Trump favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of him?

Registered voters

33% Favorable

55% Unfavorable

13% No opinion

Likely voters

34% Favorable

55% Unfavorable

11% No opinion

4. Is your general impression of Hillary Clinton favorable or unfavorable, or do you have no opinion of her?

Registered voters

34% Favorable

54% Unfavorable

12% No opinion

Likely voters

37% Favorable

54% Unfavorable

9% No opinion

Everything else being equal…

[ QUESTIONS 5 & 6 WERE ROTATED ]

5. Would you have preferred that the Republican nominee was someone other than Donald Trump or are you satisfied with Trump as the nominee? [ IF PREFERRED OTHER: Would you have preferred someone else a great deal or just somewhat?]

54% Preferred other a great deal

12% Preferred other just somewhat

4% Preferred other not sure

27% Satisfied with Trump

3% (VOL) Don't know

6. Would you have preferred that the Democratic nominee was someone other than Hillary Clinton or are you satisfied with Clinton as the nominee? [ IF PREFERRED OTHER: Would you have preferred someone else a great deal or just somewhat?]

48% Preferred other a great deal

10% Preferred other just somewhat

4% Preferred other not sure

34% Satisfied with Clinton

4% (VOL) Don't know

7. Have you learned anything new in the past ten days that has caused you to change your mind about your presidential vote, or not?

4% Yes, changed mind

60% No, not changed mind

36% Already voted

8. Who do you think will probably win the national election for president, Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton?

28% Trump

57% Clinton

2% (VOL) Neither/someone else

13% (VOL) Don't know

[ Question 9 was asked only of those said Trump or Clinton will probably win; n=687, moe ± 3.7% ]

9. Do you think [Trump/Clinton] will win fair and square or will [he/she] win mainly because the system is rigged?

TOTAL

87% Fair and square

9% Because the system is rigged

4% (VOL) Don't know

TRUMP WILL WIN (Q8)

92% Fair and square

4% Because the system is rigged

4% (VOL) Don't know

CLINTON WILL WIN (Q8)

84% Fair and square

11% Because the system is rigged

4% (VOL) Don't know

METHODOLOGY

The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from November 3 to 6, 2016 with a national random sample of 802 registered voters. Interviews were conducted by a live caller in English, including 401 drawn from a list of registered voters (201 landline / 200 cell phone) and 401 using random digit dial (201 landline / 200 cell phone). Monmouth is responsible for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. The final sample is weighted for age, gender, race and partisanship based on voter list and U.S. Census information. Data collection support provided by Braun Research (field), Aristotle (voter list sample), and SSI (RDD sample). For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points (unadjusted for sample design). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.

Click on pdf file link below for full methodology and results by key demographic groups.