Dates Observed: June 9, 2018

Team/Organization: Lake Elsinore Storm (San Diego Padres)League/Level: California League (High-A)Scouting Notes: Undersized; not a great frame; no projection/physical upside there. Three-quarters release, some mild deception/quirkiness with quick arm-action and distracting glove/front-hand action at hand break. Deep repertoire with some pitchability; knows how to get hitters out with some ability to move up/down with full repertoire; at his best, particularly tough at-bat for RHH, though far from overpowering/dominant … Four-seam fastball 89-93, two-seamer 87-91, changeup 78-82, slider 77-82. Nothing grading out above-average, but sequences well, command OK, mixes speed and pitches a little bit, even if he draws a lot of contact for working in a high-leverage bullpen role right now … Veteran; four-time Cal Leaguer by 2018; organizational depth at this point, maybe a modest shot at long relief/low-leverage bullpen situations, but times’s running out … Credit where credit is due — Colby Blueberg does have a little bit of pitchability, and he knows how to sequence hitters and get outs with a veteran presence who understands the game relative to this level, but below-average stuff across the board and lack of high-level experience will make things tough moving forward.

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Dates Observed: June 9, 2018

Team/Organization: Lake Elsinore Storm (San Diego Padres)League/Level: California League (High-A)Scouting Notes: Tall, strong guy; slightly open stance; decent bat speed with pretty heavy pull orientation in approach. Big, big power stroke, particularly to his pull side in right field; will hit his fair share of towering shots. Huge raw power in BP, but question whether he’ll make enough contact to produce pop on a consistent basis at higher levels; will get awfully pull-happy approach and is susceptible to getting out front, rolling over, swinging through off-speed down and away, etc. Strikes out quite a bit; feast or famine guy, reminds me a bit of Colorado Rockies first base prospect Roberto Ramos. Defensively OK; will survive at first base, average but not flashy. For me, probably won’t hit enough to be an everyday guy, but there’s some carrying tool potential here with the pop; ideal American League fit with designated hitter potential to exploit bat, but Brad Zunica can still get there as a National Leaguer. Strikeouts are an issue; remains to be seen how he adjusts to better pitching at higher levels.

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Dates Observed: June 9, 2018

Scouting Notes: One of the top pitching prospects moving quickly for the San Diego Padres, Adrian Morejon was signed as a 17-year-old out of Cuba and has reached High-A before his 20th birthday. Big-time arm with likely mid-rotation upside; poised kid with three potential above-average pitches and an understanding of how to use them … Well-built for his age with strong, thick lower half; repeatable delivery with high three-quarters release and good downward plane to plate; command profile to live at the knees with entire repertoire, work side to side on the plate with consistency. Mechanics did get a bit haywire from the stretch in my look here, particularly in the middle innings after cruising through several frames working exclusively from the windup; struggled with leaking out to the plate and leaving his arm behind to drag through late, altering release point, affecting command, flattening some of his stuff, and leaving it up in the zone. Extension suffered from the stretch, too; showed some recoil and lacked the pinpoint feel for the corners he’d had from the windup; work to do here to make mechanics more repeatable in high-stress/high-leverage situations with runners on base so he can execute big pitches … Fastball sat 92-95 in my look here; paired it with an 80-84 changeup and a 78-81 curve. Had him 1.50 – 1.59 to the plate with a runner on first base; holds runners OK and looked fine getting off the mound to field his position, though late to get over to cover first a couple times … Fastball is no-nonsense pitch, pretty conventional with above-average velo to the plate. Fairly straight without exceptional late life, but velo and command are generally good enough to make it work; perfect pitch to establish early/first time through against a lineup with enough power to keep going back to late when spotted up. Flirted some with a two-seam fastball in warm-ups and between innings that showed considerable, late arm-side run, but didn’t see significant usage in game that was executed too differently from four-seam fastball … Advanced feel for curveball in my look here; pitch is sharp with 12-to-6 break and consistent depth; good, tight spinner out of the hand that he can use a lot; trusts the spin. Really loves it against LHH with good look there, but showed some feel to backdoor it to RHH, too. Curve could be a big out pitch — potential plus — for Adrian Morejon if/when mechanical consistency comes; will execute curveball even more often … Didn’t appear to see the purported knuckle changeup in this look, but regular changeup works just fine; tumble to arm-side with run, tunnels OK with fastball, some utility here against RHH. Should work well enough as a third pitch and could become above-average at ceiling … Adrian Morejon is methodical and very calm on the mound; takes his time and just looks like a big leaguer, as dumb as that sounds. Directs pace with his sets and his tempos to the plate; doesn’t try to go too fast, nor does he waste time out of rhythm; just calmly directs tempo on the mound and puts hitters on his schedule … Overall, he’s polished and consistent with an above-average repertoire, and for me—and many other evaluators—that means mid-rotation upside is ahead, especially considering the context of his age and competition level right now. There are some mechanical inconsistencies to iron out that’ll help the repertoire, particularly while working from the stretch with runners on base, but Adrian Morejon is at least a solid 55 FV at ceiling. I’d like to see him a few more times this summer or next, if possible, but you could probably even make a legitimate case that he’s a 60 FV if you so choose; regardless of specific OFP grade, his future is bright.

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Great athlete, good runner; need run times, but quick out of the box, plenty of get-up in the outfield to get to top speed. Plays remarkably deep in right field in my look; feels like he can run in on balls, track down short fly balls and pop ups moving in much easier. Decent arm strength there; need to see it more … Interesting bat path at the plate, particularly from the left side; some bat wrap with front arm bar, will get rotational in his swing seemingly without an ideal bat path, but the hands are quick and get it done; will get out to pull balls on his inner half, full plate coverage, etc… Underwhleming first few pro seasons for Buddy Reed after being drafted out of Florida by the San Diego Padres, but he seems to be hitting his stride this summer in Lake Elsinore; more on him when I get a better, longer look later in the year.

Buddy Reed Scouting Report — San Diego Padres Game Video

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Buddy Reed Scouting Report — San Diego Padres Related Links

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Short-stint power reliever; three-quarters release with a couple slight variations on the arm angle, will move it around some in part due to mechanical inconsistencies. Plenty of height and size for power + good downward plane on all his stuff, translates to overpowering repertoire. Fastball sat 95-99 in my June 9 look; paired with an 84-88 slider and an 85-90 splitter/split-change … Fastball is very hard and mostly straight; occasionally some run back to arm-side, particularly when he leaves it out there to start, but inconsistent life there. Slider is hard, very sharp, with sweeping 10-to-4 break across the plate with some horizontal life thanks to lower arm angle; he throws it very hard and will miss bats with it, but also must find consistent depth against better opponents. The split (split change?) is very firm, as well, thrown hard without as much nuance, but shows potential for late, hard dive right at the plate; not as much feel for it in my look relative to his first two pitches … Lots of moving parts through 6’8” frame with ample opportunity for mechanics to get out of whack; difficulty staying on line to the plate and will fade hard to first base side, taking momentum and command with him. Also showed tendency to get out in front towards plate and leave arm dragging behind, creating plenty of arm-side misses, particularly with his fastball … Dauris Valdez is a lot of fun to watch; still pretty young with a very hard fastball and well above-average stature, there’s a possibility he develops into a high-leverage late-inning reliever for the San Diego Padres one day. His mechanics must smooth out a little bit, though, for that’ll in turn help his command (and likely his velo). Ideal dvelopment there could push him to a 50 FV relief ceiling with the San Diego Padres in the future.

Related to our San Diego Padres RHP Dauris Valdez Scouting Report:

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]]>http://baseballcensus.com/2018/06/12/san-diego-padres-dauris-valdez-scouting-report/feed/1San Diego Padres RHP David Bednar Scouting Report, February 2018http://baseballcensus.com/2018/02/24/san-diego-padres-david-bednar-scouting-report-baseball-video-february-2018/
http://baseballcensus.com/2018/02/24/san-diego-padres-david-bednar-scouting-report-baseball-video-february-2018/#commentsSat, 24 Feb 2018 19:55:17 +0000http://baseballcensus.com/?p=12428David Bednar Scouting Report Right-Handed Pitcher San Diego Padres David Bednar Scouting Report, San Diego Padres — Game Video In addition to our David Bednar scouting report, we have game video below. You can get more San Diego Padres prospect videos when you click here and subscribe to our YouTube channel. More from our David …

David Bednar Scouting Report

Right-Handed Pitcher

San Diego Padres

Tool (PV/FV)

Notes & Comments

Fastball (55/60)

Straight fastball with occasional mid-90s giddyup behind it; a little bit of arm-side tail and a little bit of downward life/sink at times, but it’s insignificant/inconsistent and doesn’t consistently work to miss barrels. Generally good downhill plane on the pitch, though; pitches tall, with a good downward look to hitters and some deception in his fastball that explodes to the plate late at times. Velocity: 91-96.

Curveball (40/45)

11-to-5 curveball with a little bit of downward bite; a tight spinner at its best, the curve can flatten out on occasion when he doesn’t get on top/out front. Shows tendency to get around the pitch and cast it more than break it off, too; doing so causes it to lose bite and function more as a slurve. Probably should be thrown slightly harder; needs more consistent downward movement to really miss bats at higher levels, but he’s got some feel here to throw it for strikes early and bury it once ahead. Velocity: 74-77.

Splitter (35/40)

Splitter is thrown hard and tunnels well with the fastball, but it can hang and knuckle with no drop. Downward movement that does happen is typically subtle and small; lacks drop-off-the-table look that would really miss bats. Bednar appears to set splitter in hand and then adjusts out of it upon getting the sign, as expected from a guy with this pitch in his repertoire. Feel here to throw it for strikes; needs more work/some grip adjustments to really bring out wipeout movement with the bottom dropping out. Velocity: 80-84.

Command (40/45)

Control well ahead of command; he will pound the zone and challenge hitters, but he’s often inconsistent within strike zone and pitches will hit unintended targets side to side over the plate. Bednar likes to pound the arm-side corner with fastball; easier for him to get there than extend to glove side corner with consistent command; will probably prove tougher on RHH in time because of this natural ability to get the ball in on their hands. Both off-speed pitches can catch the plate consistently, but he lacks some of the feel to pinpoint them for strikes early in the count beyond being get-over pitches.

Mechanics

Shows ball very early on long back swing of arm after hand break; hitters, particularly LHH, will pick up early. Three-quarters release point with tall release and generally a moderate spin-off to the first base side upon follow-through. Generally does a good job staying tall and working downhill through release, but fails to finish pitches and shows tendency to remain tall even after release without a full follow-through. Tendency to overthrow for velocity; lots of misses up in the zone and up out of it, especially with fastball, trying to show off power arm but often missing up.

Notes

Works from the first base side of the rubber. Unfortunately, I don’t have times on him with runners on, but he’s slow/methodical to the plate through his delivery; doesn’t use much of a slide step with runners on. Physical kid with a strong lower half and thick frame listed at 6’1″, 205 lbs., but he’s more or less tapped out physically with very little, if any, room to further grow into his body. At final form; probably durable enough as is in a relief role, but somewhat undersized for ideal short-inning/high-leverage stint arm. Will have to work hard to maintain good weight as he ages.

OFP (45 FV)

For the optimistic among us, there’s some sneaky velocity here along with the makings of two distinct off-speed pitches that could become near-average with a bit of development. For me, it’s likely David Bednar tops out in a set-up role at ceiling (45 FV), with a far more likely floor coming as an up-and-down relief arm who will work predominantly middle innings in the bullpen for the San Diego Padres in the coming seasons (35-40 FV). Has yet to see Double-A in his career, but after spending the fall of 2017 pitching in the Arizona Fall League, there’s an outside shot David Bednar could see big league time in 2018; I personally think it’s more likely he reaches The Show in 2019 and works modest innings in low-leverage situations as an up-and-down roster filler to be called up and recalled as needed. MLB ETA: 2019.

Hard, lively fastball with great downward plane thanks to height and release point; tough for hitters to square up with downward action and (occasionally) plus velocity there. Pretty easy out of his hand; clear access to top velocity, but struggles to repeat it consistently pitch to pitch. Mechanical inconsistencies rob Castillo of consistent mid- to upper-90s look right now, but arm strength is there and he’ll reach back and dial it up as necessary. Flip side of that, though, is tendency to overthrow; will miss high both in and above strike zone when he rushes to the plate and overthrows. Command improvements and natural development in next couple years have a chance to make this a legitimate double-plus pitch that sits in the mid- to upper-90s with ease out of the hand. Velocity: 91-97.

Slider (45/55)

Tight 11-to-5 break with good depth late to the plate at its best; less sweeping action and more tight, almost cut-like action, but typically with better depth than most cutters. Tendency to get around the pitch on occasion and spin it out like a cement mixer without late, sharp break; when he stays on top of the pitch, as with the fastball, there’s a lot of life and late movement here with good late break. Hard enough with sharp life to be effective against both RHH and LHH at its best. Mechanical/release point improvements (as well as command here too, to some degree) could make this an above-average pitch in time. Velocity: 83-87.

Command (40/45)

Struggles to stay on top of the ball with long limbs and tall release point at high three-quarters from left-handed side; lacks nuanced command feel side to side and will lose control down-to-up on occasion when mechanics get out of whack. Effectively wild to a certain degree with his fastball; can be dominant at times and needs to more consistently channel that through windup and to one release point. As it all relates to command, though, he throws enough strikes to survive in relief and should play up well in high-leverage stints in the future, particularly against left-handed hitters.

Mechanics

Tall and long body with long arms and a lot of moving parts through his delivery. Nearly turns his back to hitters up at balance point; particularly deceptive there to hide the ball from LHH more so than RHH, who will see the ball early out behind his back after hand break. Big leg drive to the plate with high three-quarters release point, though his arm struggles to consistently catch up to lower half and mechanics are inconsistent at this point, thus affecting release point and command. Works from the extreme third base side of the rubber, giving up some of his lefty-on-lefty leverage. Occasional tendency to cut-off follow through after release with notable recoil; just one of several ways he robs himself of velocity in small ways here and there. At his best/most consistent, mechanics are in sync with great raw arm strength to produce serious velocity, but it hasn’t thus far happened consistently enough for him to sit mid-90s day after day; still a good chance to iron things out and find efficient delivery to work in short relief.

Notes

Jose Castillo snuck up on me a little bit as 2017 wore on; saw him a few times early in the year and put him in the back of my mind before really bearing down on him late in the year when he more consistently started flirting with an upper-90s fastball. The San Diego Padres protected him on their 40-man roster over the winter, indicating they’re clearly interested in figuring out if he can help the big league bullpen fairly soon; feels like there’s a natural fit here as a situational left-handed reliever with perhaps a chance at more general high-leverage set-up work assuming better command and consistency. Big-bodied kid with some baby fat still on him; naturally strong just by virtue of his build, but not necessarily well conditioned at this point; perhaps some modest room to add strength here in subtle ways that could help him consistently work in the upper 90s. Just turned 22 years old two weeks ago, so well ahead of schedule now with clearly some room left to grow into his body, as well as his career path.

OFP (50 FV)

Sneaky-bright future as a left-handed situational reliever with perhaps a shot at an ultimate ceiling as a general set-up man in the big leagues, contingent on finding consistency in command and mechanics. Big, burly lefty who reminds me a little bit of Jake McGee, though I think it’s unlikely Castillo sees a ceiling quite that good in San Diego. He’s well ahead of schedule already, though, and Jose Castillo should spend the first part of 2018 with Double-A San Antonio; he could see big league time later this year if things go right. Long term, feels likely he’ll turn into a valuable left-handed short relief option. MLB ETA: 2019.

]]>http://baseballcensus.com/2018/01/22/san-diego-padres-jose-castillo-scouting-report-baseball-player-evaluation-video-january-2018/feed/0San Diego Padres 2B/SS Luis Urias Scouting Report, 2017http://baseballcensus.com/2017/12/14/san-diego-padres-luis-urias-scouting-report-baseball-player-evaluation-video-2017/
http://baseballcensus.com/2017/12/14/san-diego-padres-luis-urias-scouting-report-baseball-player-evaluation-video-2017/#commentsFri, 15 Dec 2017 06:22:09 +0000http://baseballcensus.com/?p=12099It’s easy to forget sometimes that Luis Urias is still just 20 years old (DOB: Jun 3, 1997) considering the fact that he’s already pushed past both Double-A and dominated a stint in the Arizona Fall League representing the San Diego Padres, hitting for average and getting on base with the best of ’em along …

]]>It’s easy to forget sometimes that Luis Urias is still just 20 years old (DOB: Jun 3, 1997) considering the fact that he’s already pushed past both Double-A and dominated a stint in the Arizona Fall League representing the San Diego Padres, hitting for average and getting on base with the best of ’em along the way. A free agent signing as a teenager out of Mexico, the middle infielder has moved quickly to date, and in his 347 game career Urias is already a .310 hitter with 153 walks against just 135 strikeouts in more than 1,500 plate appearances. That bodes well for his future in San Diego; although Urias has virtually no pop (just a .391 career slugging percentage), his contact skills are off the charts, and coupled with above-average defense, he’s fast becoming one of the Padres’ top prospects ahead of the 2018 season.

Baseball Census saw Luis Urias for most of the 2016 season when he was playing with High-A Lake Elsinore, and then we got a second good look at him last month while he was playing for the Peoria Javelinas in the Arizona Fall League. (Just as you’d expect from him, the San Diego Padres prospect slashed .315/.443/.481/.924 in 17 games at the AFL against the game’s best pitching prospects.) Below, you’ll find our full Luis Urias scouting report based on our AFL notes — tool grades, game video, and projections for the remarkable contact hitter and defensive middle infielder.

Luis Urias Scouting Report, San Diego Padres — 2017

Dates observed in 2017: Arizona Fall League

TOOL (FV)

NOTES & COMMENTS

Hit (70)

Truly freakish ability to put the barrel on the ball like few I’ve seen the last few years. Exceptional (double-plus?) hand-eye coordination and pitch recognition, with advanced pitch tracking and a mature understanding both of the strike zone, and of how he’s being pitched based on game situation. Relied on leg kick for timing the last few years, but kick itself and weight transfer are both much more pronounced this year; perhaps adjustment comes to take advantage of bat speed and create some leverage in bid for more gap-to-gap power. Little natural pop right now, even with average to slightly above-average bat speed; swing is more geared to spraying all fields with the ball a la Victor Reyes, and Urias will show an inside-out approach there to get the job done instead of selling out for power. Plate discipline has improved remarkably since I saw him in 2016; always been low on strikeouts, but AFL viewings showed him to be more discerning in takes with better feel for the strike zone than a year earlier; clearly maturing as a hitter. May fall short of fighting for a batting title one day due to propensity for some weak contact, but he’ll be a phenomenal situational hitter with ability to get on base consistently through maturation to ceiling.

Power (30)

Extremely littler power at present; virtually no over-the-fence pop now and unlikely to develop into average power profile with age. Much larger weight transfer/leg kick is a big difference from a year ago, but swing remains ideal for gap power. Orientation matters; Urias’ is generally a center/right-center approach, and he’ll fall in love with spraying line drives there, sacrificing the inner half and taking away his own ability to turn on hard stuff with authority. If he sells out for more power, though, there’s a trade-off with losing some plate coverage and barrel feel on the outer half; likely best at this point to remain contact heavy, punchy live drive guy who can function as a table-setter with occasional pop.

Glove (60)

Really liked him last year as a second baseman in Lake Elsinore, and his new look at shortstop in AFL was even better. Rangy and athletic to both glove side and into the hole; covers ground with quick reactions and plays bigger than he is at the six-hole. Will make plays on the dive; sense of urgency there with good internal clock to make plays on fast runners. Impressive physical stature with maturity and poise; situational awareness good enough to play short at the next level. Unsure if he’s a true everyday guy there in the big leagues, or if he’ll move back to second base, but he can undoubtedly handle the six-hole and it’s impressive how much he’s improved to assert himself in a year’s time.

Arm (55)

Not quite a plus arm and lacks a true cannon from the hole at shortstop on his backhand, but definitely above-average arm strength with good carry and accuracy. Consistent and reliable; fits better at second, perhaps, but he’ll have enough arm strength to play shortstop should he wind up there. Good footwork helps him get under his arm; good overall athlete.

Speed (60)

Had him 4.20 – 4.26 up the line to first base in a few AFL times; bumped him to a 60-grade here because of exceptional footwork and first-step quickness on defense. Very good overall athlete who’s light on his feet and anticipates well, both defensively and on the bases. Has struggled with executing stolen bases, though more a testament to lack of experience in reading pitchers than anything else; unlikely to be a major stolen base threat but should improve steal rate and swipe a couple bags as he ages.

Intangibles

Whiz kid; remarkable to see how much he’s improved over the course of a year. Taken on two big challenges (Double-A adjustments, AFL pitching) and come away a significantly better player than he was going in (at 20 years old!). Goes without saying, but development path bodes well for future big league role. Unique player with fascinating approach/execution at the plate; can’t wait to see if he can really play shortstop in the big leagues, but I’m bullish on him as an everyday second baseman in San Diego who will adjust quickly and thrive.

Luis Urias Scouting Report, San Diego Padres — Game Video

Luis Urias Scouting Report — Notes, Analysis & Projection

One of the most exciting young prospects in baseball that isn’t on the Ronald Acuna–Victor Robles tier of potential future All-Star difference makers in The Show, Luis Urias may not wind up a flashy household name, but he’s got a good chance at being a remarkably consistent, competitive first-division starting middle infielder. A soon-to-be wunderkind with the San Diego Padres, it’s truly remarkable what Urias has been able to produce to date in his career and at his age, and there’s no reason he’d slow down as he moves closer to the big leagues. Seeing how well he took to shortstop at the AFL was icing on the cake, further proving that Urias’ athleticism and advanced feel for the game truly are for real.

There are holes, of course. He’s going to make a lot of weak, ground ball contact as he adjusts to better pitching with that inside-out approach, and it’s going to take some work to consistently produce gap-to-gap punch when he reaches the big leagues. The AFL served as a very nice audition, though, and Urias proved (albeit in a small sample size) that his revamped leg kick and more-leveraged look at the plate can work against top-line pitching. As young as he is, Luis Urias has ample time to make good on an everyday infielder ceiling for the San Diego Padres; barring significant injury, I can’t imagine him not reaching the big leagues in 2018.

]]>http://baseballcensus.com/2017/12/14/san-diego-padres-luis-urias-scouting-report-baseball-player-evaluation-video-2017/feed/5San Diego Padres RHP Andres Munoz Scouting Report, 2017http://baseballcensus.com/2017/11/20/san-diego-padres-andres-munoz-scouting-report-baseball-player-evaluation-video-2017/
http://baseballcensus.com/2017/11/20/san-diego-padres-andres-munoz-scouting-report-baseball-player-evaluation-video-2017/#respondTue, 21 Nov 2017 07:59:46 +0000http://baseballcensus.com/?p=11757Just 18 years old right now (DOB: January 16, 1999), right-handed pitcher Andres Munoz became the youngest prospect at this year’s Arizona Fall League when the San Diego Padres opted to send him there to pitch for the Peoria Javelinas in October. It was something of a surprise considering the Mexican righty had only just …

]]>Just 18 years old right now (DOB: January 16, 1999), right-handed pitcher Andres Munoz became the youngest prospect at this year’s Arizona Fall League when the San Diego Padres opted to send him there to pitch for the Peoria Javelinas in October. It was something of a surprise considering the Mexican righty had only just been signed in 2016, and he’d had just three games of full-season experience reaching Fort Wayne briefly in the summer of 2017. And yet Munoz possesses a triple-digit fastball and a hard, sweeping slider — ingredients ideal for a successful late-inning reliever — and so the Padres opted to throw him in the deep end with Peoria and see how things turned out.

All things considered, the AFL season couldn’t have gone much better than it did for Andres Munoz; in nine appearances (8.2 innings pitched), the lanky righty allowed just one run on four hits and two walks, while striking out 11 hitters to finish with a 1.04 ERA and a .138 opponents’ batting average. That wrapped a very strong 2017 campaign for the relief arm, who coupled the AFL with solid summer statistics spent predominantly with short-season Tri-City, and those three appearances in Fort Wayne: a 3-0 record with a 3.81 ERA over 26 innings across 24 relief appearances, with just 17 hits and 18 walks allowed against 38 strikeouts in that span.

Considering how quickly the San Diego Padres have pushed Munoz already, 2018 should be interesting for the young reliever. Below, we’ll explore that a little bit more along with our tool grades, game video, and scouting notes in our full end-of-season Andres Munoz scouting report here.

Andres Munoz Scouting Report, San Diego Padres — 2017

Dates observed in 2017: Arizona Fall League

TOOL (FV)

NOTES & COMMENTS

Fastball (75)

Youngest player at AFL but also arguably best natural fastball life and velocity there, too. Easy upper 90s velocity without having to reach back and overthrow. Natural arm-side run. Gun-slinger/low three-quarters release point brings him some fade/sink on occasion too, but inconsistent. Lacks command feel for the pitch, but more than enough velocity to make up for it with margin of error. Will drop elbow and work uphill to the top half of the zone with it, too, but again — significant margin of error with double-plus velocity. Chance to have one of the best fastballs in baseball with another few years of development. Velocity: 95-99, T 100.

Slider (50)

Below average for me, but I think he can get it to a solidly average, 50-grade pitch with some work. More than anything, he needs to throw it harder; it lacks hard, late bite at times and will spin out loose and float to the plate in the low 80s. Tendency to get around and underneath the pitch, leaving it flat and sweeping with less downward bite; will also back up on him more often than it should. When it’s on, it’s a looser 10-to-4 breaker with more sweeping action than late bite. Low arm angle and inconsistent arm path/release point further affect execution of the pitch. Needs to learn to ‘grip it and rip it;’ trust grip with little manual manipulation and throw the hell out of it like his fastball; will show better downward life and improve rapidly sitting in upper 80s/low 90s like that. Velocity: 80-83, T 84.

Control/Command (50/40)

Command profile fits a short-stint relief role, especially with his power arsenal; struggles to work side to side with consistency; variable mechanics and release points make it difficult to find the strike zone at times. Falls off very hard to first base side in follow-through, pulling away momentum and leverage from his power stuff while also affecting control and command. Even with exciting power arsenal, command profile must improve if he’s to be trusted with high-leverage innings against better hitters.

Mechanics

Gunslinger; closed off to hitters and bent over to help hide the ball. Low three-quarters arm slot; still manages to work downhill even with bent trunk and lower arm slot, though. Mechanics somewhat reminiscent of Francisco Rodriguez, especially considering hard fall to first base. Inconsistent arm action and release points, affecting command and at times taking away velocity. Ample deception in mechanics, though, and so must strike a balance between ironing out flaws for consistency and keeping quirks that make hitters uncomfortable.

Intangibles

Very, very young and AFL appearance in 2017 an indication Padres may push him quickly; mentally mature and calm even when throw into the deep end in Peoria. More than enough arm strength to succeed in upper minors, but there are some potentially significant command issues to work out here and he’ll need to prove the mental toughness to face far older hitters and develop quickly against veteran hitters.

Andres Munoz Scouting Report — San Diego Padres — 2017 Game Video

Andres Munoz Scouting Report — Notes & Analysis

There isn’t much nuance to what Andres Munoz does on the mound: a fastball flirting with triple digits and a potentially wipeout slider make him the ideal power reliever, and apparently, the San Diego Padres don’t intend to waste too much time nurturing that future in the low minors. And while it’s fun — and impressive — that the 18-year-old had sustained success with Peoria in the Arizona Fall League this year, there are still considerable mechanical and execution issues that must be worked out before he’s truly ready for San Diego, no matter how far the club pushes him through the minor leagues. That said, a triple-digit fastball is going to warrant considerable opportunities in this game, and Andres Munoz has some of the easiest, highest velocity numbers out of anyone we saw across all of 2017. If he can consistently corral all the pieces just enough to throw strikes against better hitters, there’s no reason Munoz shouldn’t remain on the fast track to a big league bullpen.

Andres Munoz Scouting Report — Future Projection

Considering he’ll turn only 19 years old in January, one would figure Andres Munoz would start the year back at Fort Wayne, or perhaps High-A Lake Elsinoreif all goes right after a strong AFL showing. The San Diego Padres are pretty high on him, though, so even with mechanical corrections and arsenal improvements, it’s feasible Munoz could find himself up in the upper minors by the end of 2018. Expect 2019 to be a realistic landing year for the lanky righyt to reach the big leagues, considering his relative struggles and young age. If Andres Munoz proves he can keep his ample pitch life and deception while more often throwing strikes, one day a big league closer role may be well within his grasp.

Overall Future Potential (Future Value): Legitimate closer future with exceptional power profile; ample work to be done between now and then, but frontline closer ceiling well within reach (60/65)

MLB ETA: 2019

Did you like this Andres Munoz scouting report? Get more prospects here:

]]>http://baseballcensus.com/2017/11/20/san-diego-padres-andres-munoz-scouting-report-baseball-player-evaluation-video-2017/feed/0San Diego Padres catcher Austin Allen is Baseball Census’ first annual Media Good-Guy Award winnerhttp://baseballcensus.com/2017/09/19/san-diego-padres-austin-allen-first-annual-media-good-guy-award-winner-baseball-census/
http://baseballcensus.com/2017/09/19/san-diego-padres-austin-allen-first-annual-media-good-guy-award-winner-baseball-census/#commentsWed, 20 Sep 2017 03:21:46 +0000http://baseballcensus.com/?p=11091This post is part of our broader end-of-season content/awards lineup that’s being published on the site this week; click here for more information on that list, and to see the other awards and posts within. Here, we announce our picks for Baseball Census’ first annual Media Good Guys Award: San Diego Padres catcher Austin Allen, …

Here, we announce our picks for Baseball Census’ first annual Media Good Guys Award: San Diego Padres catcher Austin Allen, Santa Barbara City College associate head coach Steven Hardesty, and the Frisco RoughRiders media relations department. Read on below for a bit more information on each of those winners, plus our honorable mention picks in each of those categories: player, coach, and team/organization.

Austin Allen, San Diego Padres

We saw Austin Allen more than virtually all the players we covered in 2017, from the very start of the year in mid-April to one of the final series of the summer at the very end of August, and throughout that entire time, he was nothing but helpful, approachable, insightful, and enjoyable to be around in a professional capacity. He remains one of our favorite interviews after this season, and we wish him the best moving forward knowing he’ll be able to seamlessly and professionally manage the increasing media demands that come with moving up the ranks towards the big leagues.

It helps that he put together a very, very good year on the field, too, though this award is more a nod to his professional accessibility from an interview perspective. For those curious, we’ve written several things about Austin Allen this year, too, including a June interview piece, a full June scouting report, and another, deeper feature interview from August. Undoubtedly, he’s one of the nicest, most approachable guys in professional baseball and it was a pleasure getting to know him a little bit in 2017.

Steven Hardesty, Santa Barbara City College

Winning this award based on his time in 2017 as the assistant coach at Ventura College, Steven Hardesty was far and away the most helpful coach we ran across this year. Always available for a quick quote about a player, or for more in-depth insight about the recruiting process, junior college life, and the development of players looking for four-year opportunities, it was a blessing for us to have run across Hardesty so early in our junior college coverage, as he made that realm a thousand times easier to navigate than it otherwise would have been. After the Ventura College season ended, Steven Hardesty took a position as the associate head coach at Santa Barbara City College — a phenomenal opportunity for him at a very good program, and also the perfect thing to get us up to the beaches of Santa Barbara more than a few times in the spring of 2018 to evaluate more prospects.

Frisco RoughRiders (AA, Texas Rangers)

This award specifically goes out to broadcasters Ryan Rouillard and Keith Raad, and video expert Jordan Gracey, who collectively made our week in Frisco, Texas at the end of May particularly unforgettable and exceptional. The RoughRiders more than any other minor league team we came across in 2017 do things the right way as far as media access and player accessibility goes, and we’re proud to name them our pick for the best team/organization’s media relations staff this year. There’s no doubt we’ll be back in Frisco during the 2018 season thanks to their openness, professionalism, and accessibility — and their gorgeous home ballpark with that right field lazy river doesn’t hurt, either.

Congratulations to Austin Allen, Steven Hardesty, the Frisco RoughRiders, and our honorable mention picks, and thanks to all of them and more for being so helpful with interviews and more over the course of the season. We look forward to continuing to build relationships with all of these people and more as we continue to develop and expand the site!

]]>http://baseballcensus.com/2017/09/19/san-diego-padres-austin-allen-first-annual-media-good-guy-award-winner-baseball-census/feed/1San Diego Padres: After an incredible college career, Taylor Kohlwey adjusts to new role in pro ballhttp://baseballcensus.com/2017/09/04/san-diego-padres-taylor-kohlwey-adjusts-new-role-professional-baseball-feature-interview/
http://baseballcensus.com/2017/09/04/san-diego-padres-taylor-kohlwey-adjusts-new-role-professional-baseball-feature-interview/#commentsMon, 04 Sep 2017 08:53:49 +0000http://baseballcensus.com/?p=10951Lancaster, California —— Taylor Kohlwey was an otherworldly superstar in college. Not in the way most of us like to re-live our “glory days” with a good bit of exaggeration and hyperbole, but in the real, authentic way: a 51-game hitting streak that spanned two seasons of play made him forever one of the best …

]]>Lancaster, California ——Taylor Kohlwey was an otherworldly superstar in college.

Not in the way most of us like to re-live our “glory days” with a good bit of exaggeration and hyperbole, but in the real, authentic way: a 51-game hitting streak that spanned two seasons of play made him forever one of the best baseball players in the history of his NCAA Division III alma-mater, the University of Wisconsin-La Crosse.

Even after playing against small-school, northern state competition for four years, Kohlwey’s consistency and production drew the notice of the San Diego Padres, who made him their 21st round draft pick in 2016. And now, in the first full year of his professional baseball career, the outfielder has already jumped to High-A Lake Elsinore, where he’s slashed .243/.313/.337/.650 over 300 at-bats across 91 games as his Storm ready for their final contest of the season on Monday.

To say the adjustment to big-time pro ball life has been daunting, then, is understating it a little bit.

“It’s a challenge, but you have to go out there and compete, and have fun, and try to get better every day,” Kohlwey told Baseball Census during a recent interview. “I know I’m not the best guy out here. I know I’m not the most toolsy guy like some of these guys out here, but I’m trying to get better each day, and I have confidence. Maybe sometimes I have to fake a little confidence, you know? But I believe in myself, and I know that I’m here for a reason.”

As you might expect from a late-round, small-school guy in an organization littered with exciting, younger prospects, Taylor Kohlwey isn’t the first option in the lineup, either. Or, the second. Or… the third. Often times, he’s the last outfielder off the bench, playing the day game after night games, or the final game on the long road trip, or the rough night against a nasty lefty, just to give a prospect a much-needed day off.

Such is life for a guy in that station — and it’s been an eye-opener.

“It’s tough, but you have to really work on sticking to a routine every day, and I think you have to focus on being a good teammate,” the outfielder said. “Hits, stats, none of that stuff really matters as long as I’m hitting the ball hard and feeling good. If I hit the ball hard, but I don’t get a hit, that’s all right. I can pound four balls but hit ‘em right at guys and walk away 0-for-4, but in a way, I had a great night. That’s the important part, and that’s been a big adjustment.”

“Honestly, just being ready to play every day is tough,” he continued. “This is a very different schedule from college. You’ll feel great one day, and the next day you feel terrible. You really have to stay right up in the head. But more than anything, this is fun, and you have to make it fun.”

Maybe that’s the biggest takeaway for a guy like Taylor Kohlwey, who plainly won’t get as many chances to prove himself in pro ball as will a bonus baby from a bigger school or better background. That’s the reality of this game, and maybe that reality means the outfielder will be jettisoned unceremoniously this winter, or the next, or the one after that when the San Diego Padres fill his roster spot with somebody just a little bit better.

To that end, Taylor Kohlwey can’t really take this game any other way than how he is now: it’s bonus baseball, a shot at the game beyond college, with a small (but non-zero!) chance at the big leagues, here for as long as he can hang on for the ride.

“It’s fun to have all my buddies from college following along and asking how I’m doing and all that stuff,” the outfielder said, grinning. “They wish they could still be playing, so I know I’m lucky. Sometimes I don’t realize how lucky I am.”

]]>http://baseballcensus.com/2017/09/04/san-diego-padres-taylor-kohlwey-adjusts-new-role-professional-baseball-feature-interview/feed/1San Diego Padres: Jerry Keel would make for a fascinating Arizona Fall League candidatehttp://baseballcensus.com/2017/08/28/san-diego-padres-jerry-keel-would-make-for-a-fascinating-arizona-fall-league-candidate/
http://baseballcensus.com/2017/08/28/san-diego-padres-jerry-keel-would-make-for-a-fascinating-arizona-fall-league-candidate/#commentsTue, 29 Aug 2017 04:35:09 +0000http://baseballcensus.com/?p=10871Rancho Cucamonga, California —— I had the pleasure of watching San Diego Padres left-handed pitcher Jerry Keel throw the best game of his season—maybe the best game of his career—on Thursday night for the Lake Elsinore Storm on the road against Rancho Cucamonga. He twirled a complete game two-hitter on 111 pitches (75 strikes), striking out …

]]>Rancho Cucamonga, California —— I had the pleasure of watching San Diego Padres left-handed pitcher Jerry Keel throw the best game of his season—maybe the best game of his career—on Thursday night for the Lake Elsinore Storm on the road against Rancho Cucamonga. He twirled a complete game two-hitter on 111 pitches (75 strikes), striking out nine and walking three in the Storm’s road win. The lone blemish against him was when Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Quincy Latimore barreled up a ball and sent it to the trees beyond left-center field—something Latimore has been doing to virtually every pitcher he faces lately, anyways. Take that away and Keel allowed one measly bloop single across the rest of his nine-inning complete game, a massively impressive effort against a very good lineup, especially considering how up-and-down his season has been.

But you don’t think I’m writing a four-day late game recap about one single Jerry Keel start, do you? Let’s step back for a broader look after that complete game — specifically, let’s synthesize how outings like this may help give light to Jerry Keel’s future. I have seen the Cal State Northridge product several times before in both 2016 and 2017, and in an earlier report about the big lefty, I hypothesized pretty strongly that he ought to be headed for the bullpen soon. That still may be true, of course, but maybe that analysis was… premature?

Not to be swayed by one (very good) complete game alone, but I’m far more sold on his ability to execute all four of pitches, his exceptional feel for changing speeds, and his natural understanding of how early to go to his off-speed stuff. No, Keel doesn’t typically break 90 mph with his fastball, but he need not do so if he’s also going to flash a curve, and changeup, and a slider all distinct enough from each other to get him through an opposing lineup multiple times. In a world of throwers running velocity up to the mid-90s, what if Jerry Keel—at his best—is a hell of a pitcher?

Let’s go back to Latimore for a second. A ten-year veteran of pro ball (Keel is in his third season), Latimore name-dropped the lefty on Friday night when I asked about the outfielder’s reactions to hitting so far in the California League.

“We also faced Keel in Lake Elsinore [last week], and he is a really good pitcher, man,” Latimore said, shaking his head with the look of a guy coming by his admiration honestly. “He has a good idea of what he wants to do. He keeps that fastball on the outer half, he has that big curve, and then he throws that slider down and in to righties. And then you have to watch for the changeup. That’s a lot. I think my success came from being able to lay off the pitches he wanted me to swing at, and to swing at the pitch I wanted. It was tough, but I wanted to wait for my pitch over the plate to do damage with, and I was able to do it.”

Latimore did that damage off Keel, but Latimore has done damage against literally everyone since he’s been in the Cal League, slashing .486/.609/1.057/1.666 with five doubles and five home runs in his first 11 games there, so let’s throw him out. That Keel was able to hold him to a solo home run is, arguably, a feat. That Keel was able to work around Latimore and completely equalize major Dodgers prospects in that Rancho lineup is far more of a feat. And now it has me thinking about whether Keel’s career is soon going to find itself on an upswing.

Jerry Keel has thrown 115.0 innings this year. At most, he’ll get two more starts in 2017 (perhaps just one), which means he’ll hover somewhere below the 125-inning mark over 22 or 23 games (18 or 19 starts) split between Low-A Fort Wayne, High-A Lake Elsinore, and Double-A San Antonio. That’d be just a few more innings than last year—Keel tossed 114.2 frames over 32 games (16 starts) in 2016—but he spent almost a full month of this season on the disabled list from late June to late July, and that robbed him of five or six starts and perhaps 25-40 more innings of work. Further, Keel was likely targeted to spend more time up in San Antonio than he did, but a roster crunch and some six-man rotation shuffling eventually pushed him back to Lake Elsinore to repeat and conquer the level he’d been introduced to last year. And now, likely with some innings left to burn this year and at a pivotal point in his greater career, an option suddenly looms for Jerry Keel.

Hello, Arizona Fall League?

Arizona Fall League rosters haven’t been announced yet and I have little by way of insider information on that decision-making process, but Jerry Keel is at the perfect point in his career (floating between High-A and Double-A) and has the perfect 2017 innings hole (it’d be feasible for him to start five or six more games this fall due to his DL stint) that it won’t surprise me if he winds up in Phoenix at some point during the AFL season. He’s the epitome of a fringe prospect who flirts with an encouraging ceiling on nights like Thursday in Rancho, and then he’ll turn around and float up a 69 mph curveball or two followed by an 88 mph belt-high fastball that’ll make you wonder if he will ever get all he should out of that imposing 6’6″, 240-lb. frame.

Not quite as good as the complete game he just twirled, and certainly not as bad as some of his more forgettable outings throughout the season, Jerry Keel sits somewhere in the middle — a shrewd hurler eager to change speeds from nearly the very first pitch of the game who, frankly, is fighting for his life every fifth day to remain a starter among the San Diego Padres impressive group of pitching prospects far more talented than Jerry Keel.

A year ago, I watched St. Louis Cardinals left-handed pitching prospect Austin Gomber tear up the Arizona Fall League. A physically imposing, naturally strong lefty just like Jerry Keel, Austin Gomber flashed a fastball in the upper 80s and relied on changing speeds and sheer guile to fool hitters with his best off-speed pitch: a changeup. Replace Gomber’s changeup with Keel’s curveball, and the pair aren’t too far apart. This doesn’t mean Keel will run through AFL hitters in quite the way Gomber did a year ago, of course, but it bears a second look: maybe the time is perfect for the San Diego Padres to figure out exactly what they have in left-hander Jerry Keel by showcasing him in the AFL this October.

Maybe the big lefty has the perfect, nuanced arsenal that’ll answer the bell against the game’s best young hitters and solidify him as a future starting pitcher. Maybe Keel’s AFL stint will prove he’s uniquely more qualified to face lefties in relief, as I’d hypothesized earlier. Maybe he’ll enter 2018 in a far more high-profile station in the organization than where he finds himself today.

AFL decisions have yet to be publicly announced, so this is only a gut feeling on my end… but maybe Jerry Keel is at the perfect point in his career to take the big test at Major League Baseball‘s prospect graduate school in six weeks.

]]>http://baseballcensus.com/2017/08/28/san-diego-padres-jerry-keel-would-make-for-a-fascinating-arizona-fall-league-candidate/feed/1San Diego Padres: Wilfri De La Cruz impressive with a good feel for receiving behind the platehttp://baseballcensus.com/2017/08/27/san-diego-padres-wilfri-de-la-cruz-catcher-receiving-impressive-baseball-analysis/
http://baseballcensus.com/2017/08/27/san-diego-padres-wilfri-de-la-cruz-catcher-receiving-impressive-baseball-analysis/#commentsMon, 28 Aug 2017 05:22:42 +0000http://baseballcensus.com/?p=10838Rancho Cucamonga, California —— Much of this weekend’s focus on the site has been on one San Diego Padres catcher: prospect Austin Allen, who I spoke at length with about his stellar 2017 season with the High-A Lake Elsinore Storm of the California League. And while Allen is deserving of a lot of attention as …

]]>Rancho Cucamonga, California —— Much of this weekend’s focus on the site has been on one San Diego Padres catcher: prospect Austin Allen, who I spoke at length with about his stellar 2017 season with the High-A Lake Elsinore Storm of the California League. And while Allen is deserving of a lot of attention as a prospect to watch behind the plate (or at first base) going forward, there’s another Padres farmhand putting in very good catching work in Lake Elsinore right now: Wilfri De La Cruz.

A 23-year-old Dominican who skipped over Low-A Fort Wayne entirely this year when he joined the Storm at the start of July, this past week was my first look at Wilfri De La Cruz. To put it bluntly, he’s a flatly unimpressive organizational depth option in virtually every other area of his game except for his nuanced work behind the plate. And to that end, his feel for receiving, framing, and blocking is so advanced for this level that it could be his carrying tool to a very long career in professional baseball.

I liked the San Diego Padres farmhand so much that I made it a point to put together a catching video on him this week. You should watch that video, right below, so you can see what I’m talking about when I say Wilfri De La Cruz is a phenomenal receiver with advanced, nuanced feel for the strike zone:

At 23 years old, he’s right on pace to be in High-A right now, and while everything else about his overall game is average at best, or unimpressive at worst, Wilfri De La Cruz is going to get a chance to play this game for a long, long time because of how he receives pitches behind the plate. Perhaps it’ll be at best as a fringe up-and-down big leaguer, or an upper minors organizational depth piece, but a good feel for manipulating the strike zone and an active, athletic bounce behind the plate that is belied by his overall below-average athleticism is a critical feather in his cap that bodes well for the future.

The greater baseball community is somewhat divided on pitch framing, at least in how it exists as a measurable stat; some have seen it as the future, while others have long been predicting a decline in its importance, at least as a quantifiable metric. Either way, fine. But talk to a pitching staff about throwing to a guy like Wilfri De La Cruz, who’s active and engaged on every pitch behind the plate with exceptional situational awareness and concentration, and intent on stealing as many strikes as possible; my hunch is that he’s a very popular catcher with his pitchers. Further development of his receiving skills and more nuance in his framing over time will only continue to help that. Don’t expect a future star or frontline prospect, but if Wilfri De La Cruz plays professional baseball for another decade-plus and maybe even gets a shot in The Show because of his soft hands, don’t be surprised, either.

]]>http://baseballcensus.com/2017/08/27/san-diego-padres-wilfri-de-la-cruz-catcher-receiving-impressive-baseball-analysis/feed/1San Diego Padres: Austin Allen makes his case to stay behind the plate with a career year in Lake Elsinorehttp://baseballcensus.com/2017/08/26/san-diego-padres-austin-allen-catcher-future-baseball-interview/
http://baseballcensus.com/2017/08/26/san-diego-padres-austin-allen-catcher-future-baseball-interview/#commentsSat, 26 Aug 2017 16:20:11 +0000http://baseballcensus.com/?p=10829Rancho Cucamonga, California —— Talk to any prospect evaluator that is familiar with San Diego Padres catcher Austin Allen, be they public-facing or within an organization, and the prevailing thought is the same: huge power, big guy, almost certain to end up at first base. Scouts are near unanimous in that thought, arguing Allen soon …

]]>Rancho Cucamonga, California —— Talk to any prospect evaluator that is familiar with San Diego Padres catcher Austin Allen, be they public-facing or within an organization, and the prevailing thought is the same: huge power, big guy, almost certain to end up at first base. Scouts are near unanimous in that thought, arguing Allen soon won’t be able to handle the physical duties catching requires. I’ve even pondered the same, assuming he’ll one day find a role catching part-time while playing more first base (and, if he ever gets to an American League organization, finding time as a designated hitter).

In fact, there’s really only one person who believes Austin Allen will stay behind the plate for the rest of his career — and that’s Austin Allen.

“My expectations for myself are higher than what anybody else thinks I can do,” the catcher told Baseball Census in a conversation before the Lake Elsinore Storm’s Thursday afternoon road game at LoanMart Field. This isn’t a new desire, of course; Allen has been very vocal in the past about staying behind the plate, and while time and positional need will ultimately tell the tale, a very good 2017 season buoyed by a strong finish the last few weeks is making the catching case for the San Diego Padres prospect.

“Honestly, I feel great,” Allen said, ironically just hours before he blasted his third home run in three days while also catching Jerry Keel’s complete game two-hitter against Rancho Cucamonga on Thursday night. “Other than the little inevitable dings, the foul balls and stuff, I really feel great. This offseason, I trained extremely hard every single day in order to catch as many games as I possibly can, and [field manager] Edwin [Rodriguez], he’s done a great job of mixing me in at DH, giving my legs a little break.”

“I had a weak stretch right before the All-Star Break where my legs were dead, but other than that brief period, I’ve felt the best I think I’ve ever felt [in pro ball],” he continued, noting the last few weeks have been particularly strong even as the dog days of August wear on around him. “I’ve been managing everything better. Last year helped with this. By August of last year, I couldn’t move. My knees hurt, my arm hurt, I didn’t feel good mentally. I was exhausted. But this year, I’ve looked forward to coming to the field every day and playing as hard as I can.”

That in and of itself is a critical hurdle to jump for any catcher, and especially a broad-shouldered, 6’4”, 225 lb. one like Austin Allen. The San Diego Padres prospect has spent three-quarters of his time in 2017 behind the plate, and learning how to manage his body in a full-season role like this is unquestionably a feather in the cap as he makes a case to the Padres to remain in a catching role as 2018 looms.

“This past winter, I trained for 140 games, and [this coming offseason], I’ll be training for 174 games,” Allen noted. “Remember when [Yadier Molina] came out and commented about him supposedly being tired? He said he trains for 174 games, and I took that, and I was like ‘wow, I should be doing that.’”

Austin Allen talks catching mechanics

If staying on top of the position is particularly key for a catcher the size of Austin Allen, so too is staying below it all — the baseball, that is. Here — watch this video of the San Diego Padres prospect receiving and framing this week during Lake Elsinore’s series in Rancho Cucamonga, and you’ll quickly see the unique way Allen must come set and show a target because of his size:

As you might expect, Allen’s focus centers on picking up strikes across the lowest band of the strike zone — the most important place for his pitchers to work.

“I’ve struggled with that low strike because of my size,” Allen readily admitted, noting knee-high strikes have been his primary focus throughout 2017. “It’s harder for me to get that, so I really have to work on that a lot. My hot zone is up. I know I’ve got a really good chance on getting a call on [higher pitches], even if they are out of the zone, but I’m a little cold on the bottom of the zone.”

There are ways around this, of course, and Austin Allen has found two of them: beating the ball to the spot to help with framing, and experimenting with new lower sets in body position to start low and work up. Both are works in progress, especially considering Allen credits this summer as the first where he’s really honed in on a new level of specific, nuanced defensive work behind the plate. But the development of both more than anything else in his game will dictate whether Austin Allen can stay behind the plate for years to come.

“I’m very confident beating the high pitch to the spot, but sometimes it’s been tough to beat the low ball down to the spot, and the prep before the pitch is the biggest key,” Allen said. “Focusing on prepping down. Not putting my glove on the ground, but starting very low and coming up through it, and timing it right. Some days, it’s easier than others. If you’ve got a guy who has his command that day, you can trust yourself to stay as low as possible for as long as possible and then come up. But that’s been the big focus, beating the ball to the spot.”

To help with that is the second part of Allen’s summer development behind the plate: a significantly lower set than in years past, including going far below the crouch with nobody on base.

“John Nester and Ryley Westman, two of our catching coordinators, they’ve really got me going to one knee as much as possible with no one on base, even on breaking balls,” Allen said. “That gets me lower, it gets the target lower, and it clears the left knee so I have more room to move. I’ve become really comfortable going to one knee no matter who is throwing. I wasn’t comfortable at first in spring training, but they have emphasized doing it as much as possible. And it saves my legs a little bit. That’s huge, because I want to be able to produce offensively all year, too.”

Austin Allen showing impressive power, too

Let’s talk a little bit about that offensive production Allen mentions, because lost in this tale of his catching challenges and development is one big aspect of the prospect’s season: he’s putting up impressive numbers at the plate with yet another late power surge now even as August winds down. Entering play on Saturday night, Allen has 21 homers, 29 doubles, and a .505 slugging percentage in 432 at-bats — an impressive showing for a guy arguably robbed of a postseason All-Star nod in the California League this week.

“Our assistant farm director, he came into town one day,” Allen recalled, “and he was like ‘I haven’t looked at your average once, but I do know you’re hitting for more power than last year, you have more doubles than last year, and you’re walking more. We can’t ask for anything else. Keep trending on that, and you’ll be fine.’ Ever since then, I’ve been like, ‘OK, I can buy into that.’”

“The whole launch angle thing you hear? I’ve bought into that, because the money is in the air,” Allen acknowledged. “I’ve changed my approach a little bit, not just hitting the ball hard, but looking more so into the flight of the ball. And if somebody says ‘oh, you’re a 15-20 homer guy,’ I want to be a 30-homer guy. If they see me as a .250 hitter, I want to be a .300 hitter. I haven’t really been looking at my stats, but it’s like what we were talking about back at Inland [Empire], my main focus is hitting it hard.”

There’s little question that Austin Allen will keep doing that — but if he continues to prove himself behind the plate against all odds and virtuallu every evaluation pegging him for first base, watch out; the San Diego Padres may yet have a bona fide catching prospect on their hands here.

]]>http://baseballcensus.com/2017/08/26/san-diego-padres-austin-allen-catcher-future-baseball-interview/feed/5San Diego Padres: Rod Boykin showing off encouraging power in his first try at the California Leaguehttp://baseballcensus.com/2017/08/24/san-diego-padres-rod-boykin-power-home-run-development-baseball-interview/
http://baseballcensus.com/2017/08/24/san-diego-padres-rod-boykin-power-home-run-development-baseball-interview/#commentsFri, 25 Aug 2017 06:32:47 +0000http://baseballcensus.com/?p=10808Rancho Cucamonga, California —— You wouldn’t know it to look at him, but San Diego Padres outfield prospect Rod Boykin can hit the ball a long, long way. Don’t let him get extended; a long, lanky speedster from Alabama, if Boykin gets his arms fully extended on a pitch across the outer half, he’s liable …

]]>Rancho Cucamonga, California —— You wouldn’t know it to look at him, but San Diego Padres outfield prospect Rod Boykin can hit the ball a long, long way. Don’t let him get extended; a long, lanky speedster from Alabama, if Boykin gets his arms fully extended on a pitch across the outer half, he’s liable to hit it off the batter’s eye. And with six home runs already in his brief (131 at-bat) time with the Lake Elsinore Storm to finish out this summer after a first half spent at Low-A Fort Wayne, Boykin is quickly making himself known.

“I’ve really been working hard for that power,” the outfielder told Baseball Census on Wednesday afternoon, smiling sheepishly after showing off considerable pop in a particularly good pre-game BP round. “I’m not a very big guy, and I can’t try to muscle up to generate power, so I have to use my bat speed more than anything. I’m trying to add weight, too. I’m really trying to add ten or fifteen pounds. I know that’s a lot, but if I really continue to eat right and workout, those things will take care of themselves. I think I can accomplish that.”

Boykin’s mind is in the right place, because there’s still considerable development to be done both in his body and his game in the coming years. Drafted at 160 lbs., he’s a good bit heavier than that now in his fifth professional year, but the outfielder still has a long ways to go before he fills out the way the San Diego Padres would like. Even as he’s grown into his body, though—and maintained considerable speed and athleticism while doing it the right way—it’s commendable that Boykin hasn’t tried to overcompensate and get his swing out of whack trying to be somebody he’s not.

“I really wasn’t that big at the beginning of my career, and I’ve slowly gained weight over time, so I am sure that’s helped,” the outfielder said, acknowledging how his over-the-fence power is finally starting to show up in game situations this year. “But really, it’s more swinging at pitches that I know I can do damage with. That’s key. A lot of people try too hard to generate power, and they try to do too much, and I think that hurts them. If I just stick with my game plan, and really only swing at pitches I can do damage with, I’ll be better off.”

That self-awareness is, plainly, the key to Rod Boykin’s future in professional baseball. Long and lanky, it’s easy for him to go the other way and he looks to right-center field as his power alley—something of a unique tendency for a young right-handed hitter. But the flip side of that means he struggles with hard stuff on the inner half of the plate, and even with good bat speed, he’ll quickly need to learn how to turn on inside pitches with authority and still find the barrel. Nevertheless, there are a lot of hits in that right-center field gap, and Boykin is primed to exploit it.

“My biggest strength right now is hitting the ball back up the middle and to the opposite field,” Boykin acknowledged, noting he’s optimistic about becoming a 20-plus home run guy in the future while still retaining his speed. “I have such long arms, I really like to get extended, and anything outside is pretty easy for me to go out and get it. I know I can struggle at times a little bit with middle-in, and I know most guys are the other way around, they don’t look opposite field like this. But I think this can help me down the road, looking for pitches like that.”

For now, though, Rod Boykin must continue adjust to Lake Elsinore, where he’s slashing .298/.366/.534/.900 across 33 games entering play on Friday (add his first-half numbers in Fort Wayne, and Boykin is slashing .268/.343/.461/.804 with 17 doubles, six triples, and 12 home runs over 336 total at-bats this year).

“I saw a lot of fastballs in the first half in Fort Wayne,” the San Diego Padres prospect noted. “Lately here when I’ve been doing pretty well, it’s actually been on a lot of off-speed pitches, so I’m trying to keep adjusting to that right now. If I really prove I can adjust to that off-speed, I think I’ll be pretty well off.”

“Beyond that, I’m really working on trying to get my mindset right,” he continued, looking ahead to the rapidly approaching offseason. “Anybody can go to the weight room and work out, and get big, but baseball is mental. Even when I’m not playing well, I have to keep the right mindset. Not getting mad, not taking a bad at-bat out on defense, just forget about it and move on to the next at-bat with a great mindset.”

Just as it will go with Rod Boykin’s inevitable physical growth, that mental maturity should inevitably come with more hard work and time. For now, if you’re out early for a game and catch him taking batting practice… enjoy the show.

]]>http://baseballcensus.com/2017/08/24/san-diego-padres-rod-boykin-power-home-run-development-baseball-interview/feed/1San Diego Padres: Trevor Frank feeling right at home after a year in his new organizationhttp://baseballcensus.com/2017/08/23/san-diego-padres-trevor-frank-baseball-new-organization-rule-5-draft-feature-interview/
http://baseballcensus.com/2017/08/23/san-diego-padres-trevor-frank-baseball-new-organization-rule-5-draft-feature-interview/#commentsWed, 23 Aug 2017 18:28:18 +0000http://baseballcensus.com/?p=10781Rancho Cucamonga, California —— The last thing Trevor Frank ever expected was that he’d leave the Cleveland Indians. A right-handed reliever who wrapped the 2016 season at High-A Lynchburg with 17 saves, a 2.47 ERA, and a meager .191 opponents’ batting average over 43.2 innings, the righty was sent off to the prestigious Arizona Fall …

A right-handed reliever who wrapped the 2016 season at High-A Lynchburg with 17 saves, a 2.47 ERA, and a meager .191 opponents’ batting average over 43.2 innings, the righty was sent off to the prestigious Arizona Fall League to pitch for the Mesa Solar Sox last October. The AFL is prime territory for showing off prospects ahead of winter trades, of course, but Trevor Frank didn’t think he threw well enough in the fall to warrant any interest from other organizations.

“I didn’t have the greatest Fall League, so I didn’t think anything was going to happen,” Frank admitted to Baseball Census in a pre-game interview on Tuesday afternoon at LoanMart Field in Rancho Cucamonga.

The San Diego Padres had other plans, though, and they selected Frank—a hometown kid from El Cajon and Valhalla High School—in the Triple-A phase of the Rule 5 Draft in December.

Moving organizations, whether via the Rule 5 Draft, trade, or free agency, can be a shock to a prospect who hasn’t yet been through the roster churn of the big leagues. And so it was to Frank, who suddenly found himself back home in southern California—he was a bit shellshocked to have left the Cleveland Indians during a winter where he thought he might be added to their 40-man roster.

“The Indians were trying to keep me, they told me that they were trying to hide me so they could keep me, but they only had one [40-man roster] spot open, so they couldn’t really do much,” Frank remembered. “They put [Francisco Mejia] on [the 40-man], which, you can’t not put him on there. He’s an amazing catcher, he was my catcher last year.”

“But when I went to Petco [Park] and worked out there in the offseason, [the San Diego Padres] told me they had wanted me in the [Rule 5] Draft, so they were happy that I came up on the list to pick,” Frank recalled. “And that’s the only way you can take it. Somebody wants you. It’s been nice that it’s my hometown team. There are some changes — nothing has been drastic, but the way the Padres run things is a little bit different [than the Indians]. But it’s good to be settled in. All the guys that are coordinators here were guys I looked up to when I was younger, so it’s pretty cool to meet them.”

As much as Trevor Frank has been able to find a home here with the San Diego Padres, and this summer their High-A affiliate, the Lake Elsinore Storm, that’s not to say changes haven’t been significant. The Cleveland Indians had him closing at High-A Lynchburg, but his role this season has taken on a more multi-inning look, and that has been a challenge for Frank to figure out.

“The Padres had me throwing mostly just one inning for a while, but recently in the last couple months they’ve been pushing me to two and three innings,” he noted, having thrown multiple innings in eleven of his 38 outings this summer compared to just two multi-inning outings in 44 appearances last year. “I’ve been struggling a little bit in those third innings, but I’m just trying to do whatever they need. Obviously, I haven’t really moved [up] much yet, but I’ll do whatever they need me to do to get to the big leagues. That’s where I want to be.”

Frank will have to put in work to get there upon seeing a return to earth this summer after his stellar 2016 season in High-A with the Cleveland Indians. He’s missing more bats than he ever has, though — 64 strikeouts in 52.0 innings this summer — and his command has been impeccable, walking just nine hitters in those 52 innings while earning three wins and seven saves in relief across Lake Elsinore and a brief two-game stint at Triple-A El Paso. But he’s proven to be significantly more hittable this year than last, perhaps a testament to the difficulty in following up a great year, but also likely an issue related to where he’s pitching. To put it bluntly, his experiences in the California League and the Pacific Coast League this summer have been an awakening for Trevor Frank.

“It’s totally different here,” he said, laughing when asked about pitching in the Cal League in the knowing way that reveals the league’s reputation among players. “Pitching here means being smart. Here, you can’t really miss a pitch. There [in the Carolina League], if you leave a slider up, you might get away with it. It probably won’t go out of the park. But you have to pitch different here. You have to go after guys and be confident, because if you’re not confident, you’re going to get hit. Bobby Bradley last year [with the Cleveland Indians in Lynchburg], he had almost 30 home runs in the Carolina League, and if he was playing here, it would have been insane seeing how many home runs he would have hit.”

Even a two-appearance stint in Triple-A — with both games coming for El Paso on the road in hitter-friendly Las Vegas — taught Frank that pitching out west in windy, dry ballparks requires a certain level of intent that doesn’t always need to show up as consistently in humid, muggy, low-altitude places back east.

“When I went up for six days to Triple-A, I pitched well my first outing, and then I got kind of lackadaisical and I wasn’t throwing with confidence,” the righty recalled. “Next thing I know, I wasn’t getting ahead of guys, and they started hitting it. And that’s really the thing here. If you don’t get ahead of guys, they’re going to get you. I think that’s the biggest difference I’ve seen out here.”

That, and being back home, of course.

Living with family in Menifee and enjoying his time back around his high school haunts in El Cajon, Trevor Frank sure could have it a lot worse than he does, all things considered. He’s comfortable now in his new organization, and coming around to how the San Diego Padres see his future role, too. To that end, he may not be far from reaching his dream of throwing at the club’s gorgeous downtown ballpark where he spent so many days as a kid watching his beloved hometown team. Maybe things didn’t work out too badly after all.

]]>http://baseballcensus.com/2017/08/23/san-diego-padres-trevor-frank-baseball-new-organization-rule-5-draft-feature-interview/feed/1Watch every home run hit at the Northwest League/Pioneer League All-Star Game Home Run Derbyhttp://baseballcensus.com/2017/08/02/home-run-derby-northwest-league-pioneer-league-baseball-video/
http://baseballcensus.com/2017/08/02/home-run-derby-northwest-league-pioneer-league-baseball-video/#commentsThu, 03 Aug 2017 06:45:14 +0000http://baseballcensus.com/?p=10425Hillsboro, Oregon —— On Tuesday night, the Northwest League and the Pioneer League came together for a joint All-Star Game at Hillsboro’s beautifully modern Ron Tonkin Field. Before the game, the leagues held a home run derby involving six total participants (three from each league), including: Daniel Jipping (Colorado Rockies), Robby Rinn (Kansas City Royals), …

]]>Hillsboro, Oregon —— On Tuesday night, the Northwest League and the Pioneer League came together for a joint All-Star Game at Hillsboro’s beautifully modern Ron Tonkin Field. Before the game, the leagues held a home run derby involving six total participants (three from each league), including: Daniel Jipping (Colorado Rockies), Robby Rinn (Kansas City Royals), Craig Dedelow (Chicago White Sox; pictured at the top of this post), Luis Paz (Los Angeles Dodgers), Eudy Ramos (Arizona Diamondbacks), and Luis Asuncion (San Diego Padres).

Jipping won the home run derby, with 23 total home runs over three rounds that included a bonus minute to break a tie with Rinn for the victory. After the Royals prospect’s second place finish, Dedelow, Paz, Ramos, and Asuncion all only got one round to hit. Luckily, Baseball Census has video of every single swing — at two different angles! — from the NWL/PL Home Run Derby, broken down by player, below.

Daniel Jipping, OF, Colorado Rockies

Jipping hit 23 long balls to win the home run derby, finishing with a flourish at the end of his bonus round that carried him to victory. A 21-year-old drafted in the 22nd round this summer out of Central Michigan University, Jipping is surprisingly big and physical even beyond hitting at the home run derby, weighing in at 232 pounds with a very solid, muscular build. Through his first 29 games with Boise this year, he’s slashing .227/.336/.518/.854 with nine home runs in just 110 at-bats, though he has whiffed 37 times already compared to 13 walks.

Robby Rinn, 1B, Kansas City Royals

A 24-year-old now in his second professional season with the Kansas City Royals, Robby Rinn came up exactly one long ball short at the home run derby. The lefty-swinging first baseman is having a monster season for Idaho Falls this summer, slashing .362/.455/.533/.988 with 12 doubles, four home runs, 24 walks, and only 17 strikeouts across his first 152 at-bats with the Chukars. Old for the Pioneer League, Rinn will undoubtedly have to prove he can hit at higher levels against more age-appropriate competition, but he’s off to a great start with where the Royals sent him. We recently profiled Robby Rinn outside of the home run derby, too; click here to read our full scouting report on the first baseman.

Craig Dedelow, OF, Chicago White Sox

A 22-year-old drafted in the ninth round this year out of Indiana University, Craig Dedelow has been playing the outfield for Great Falls in the Pioneer League. Through 33 games (136 at-bats) with the Voyagers this summer, Dedelow is slashing .316/.358/.632/.990 with 14 doubles, nine home runs, and nine walks against 18 strikeouts. Interestingly, before the home run derby started, Hillsboro (and Northwest League All-Star) field manager Shawn Roof told me he thought Dedelow was going to win the event, a nod to the lefty swinger’s smooth natural loft and power.

Luis Paz, C/1B, Los Angeles Dodgers

A 21-year-old Dodgers prospect out of Brazil, Luis Paz had some of the best raw power in the home run derby this year, and is leading the Pioneer League in home runs as they enter the season’s second half. The lefty-swinging catcher-turned-first baseman is slashing .260/.319/.472/.791 across two minor league stops in 2017, with 11 doubles, 13 home runs, and 21 walks (against 65 strikeouts) over 254 at-bats (68 games). Paz has caught in the past, but looks to have been moved over to first base recently in a way that may be for good, perhaps in order to take advantage of his power bat. For what it’s worth, Robby Rinn, who finished second in the home run derby, told me he was expecting Paz to take the championship home.

Eudy Ramos, 3B, Arizona Diamondbacks

A 21-year-old third baseman from the Dominican Republic, Eudy Ramos is a fan favorite in Hillsboro, and though he didn’t win the home run derby he took some impressive swings. The infielder was promoted to Low-A Kane County at the end of All-Star Game festivities on Tuesday; up until his promotion to the Midwest League, Ramos had been slashing .315/.358/.444/.801 over 40 games (178 at-bats) with nine doubles, four home runs, and 13 walks against 45 strikeouts for the Hops.

Luis Asuncion, OF, San Diego Padres

A towering 20-year-old kid from the Dominican Republic, Luis Asuncion may have only hit one bomb in the home run derby, but it’s apparent with his length and leverage that he may grow into some serious power one day soon. An outfielder by trade, Asuncion is having a decent go of it in 2017, slashing .277/.331/.421/.753 across his first 159 at-bats (40 games), with ten doubles, two triples, three home runs, 11 walks, and 39 strikeouts for Tri-City. He didn’t show it at the home run derby on Tuesday night, but Asuncion may produce some serious over-the-fence pop in another few years as he grows into his body and better understands how and when to use leverage to produce over-the-fence pop.

Well, those are the Northwest League/Pioneer League All-Star Game home run derby highlights. Again, seriously, if you like the video work we put in around the country, please click this link and hit ‘subscribe’ on our YouTube channel. There are thousands more videos coming to our ever-growing library of prospects from all around baseball.

]]>San Bernardino, California —— Entering play on Saturday night, San Diego Padres right-handed pitching prospect Chris Huffman is 5-6 with a 3.38 ERA over 18 games (16 starts) split between the High-A Lake Elsinore Storm, the Double-A San Antonio Missions, and the Triple-A El Paso Chihuahuas. I observed the 24-year-old righty in multiple starts for Lake Elsinore in April and May 2017; below is Baseball Census‘ full Chris Huffman scouting report, including video.

Chris Huffman Scouting Report — Video

Our video of San Diego Padres right-handed pitching prospect Chris Huffman shows his entire April 18 start against the Inland Empire 66ers, where he threw six scoreless innings:

Chris Huffman Scouting Report — Notes

For several years now, the knock on Chris Huffman has been that he doesn’t have good enough stuff to succeed at the next minor league level, and for several years, he’s sufficiently proven that to be incorrect as he out-pitches his projection again, and again, and again. The Virginia native sits right around 90 mph with his fastball (89-91 mph in my looks), but he does absolutely everything to play up his marginal stuff, starting with impeccable command and a knack for challenging hitters low in the zone. He has a few different wrinkles to the pitch, too, with a cut fastball that is tight and late in movement—though sometimes too horizontal to miss bats. Huffman gets good plane on the pitch, though, and his well-placed fastball at the knees can shoot ground balls and limit baserunners beyond the degree at which you’d expect it.

There’s not a whole lot of flashy stuff in his repertoire beyond the fastball/cutter combo, either; the San Diego Padres prospect shows a slider that is distinct from the cutter with slower, more sweeping break (and some depth to it), and he also has a straight changeup that isn’t above-average but plays up simply by virtue of its existence low in the zone, too. Huffman reminds me of a poor man’s Thomas Eshelman; throw strikes, limit free passes, completely avoid any self-created mistakes, and you look up six innings later with Huffman’s team firmly in the game. There’s nothing flashy about that, but every good ball club could use an arm or two like Huffman on the roster to eat innings and be efficient with his stuff every fifth day.

Chris Huffman Scouting Report — Projection

The easy long-term move would be to look at Chris Huffman and assume now that he’s reached the high minors, he’ll eventually settle into an organizational depth role with a fringy shot at reaching the big leagues as an up-and-down long reliever. And yeah, that’s probably what will happen—especially considering the San Diego Padres are currently enjoying an embarrassment of riches in young, projectable impact arms—but Huffman has been exceeding expectations and assumptions for several years now, and I’m not sure he’ll stop just because he’s in the high minors. He’s valuable in a contextual sense, as he’s certainly not an ace and at best should project into a fifth starter type of arm in the big leagues. But, if he can prove that his strike-throwing stuff will continue to play in Double-A and beyond, there’s no reason he shouldn’t come across an opportunity or two in San Diego one day.

There’s something to like about overachieving pitchers who get by on guile and cunning in the absence of plus stuff, and Chris Huffman has that going for him in spades. Over the next several seasons, the San Diego Padres are soon going to bring up several very highly touted pitching prospects; while Huffman will fall outside that group from the standpoint of greater media attention and praise, he could be extremely valuable in his own right as a swingman long reliever/emergency starter who can help save the rest of a pitching staff by working multiple, efficient innings when called upon out of the ‘pen. It’s not a sexy future, but one that might just get Chris Huffman to The Show.

]]>http://baseballcensus.com/2017/07/22/san-diego-padres-chris-huffman-scouting-report-baseball-video-july-2017/feed/0San Diego Padres: Zech Lemond still finding his way in bullpen conversion yearhttp://baseballcensus.com/2017/07/13/san-diego-padres-zech-lemond-relief-pitcher-bullpen-conversion-analysis/
http://baseballcensus.com/2017/07/13/san-diego-padres-zech-lemond-relief-pitcher-bullpen-conversion-analysis/#respondThu, 13 Jul 2017 07:07:52 +0000http://baseballcensus.com/?p=10009Lancaster, California —— This, of course, is the first full season in which the San Diego Padres have had hard-throwing righty Zech Lemond throw out of the bullpen. And with that come the growing pains, even in spite of his mid- to upper-90s fastball, hard slider, and newfound split-fingered fastball that you’d think would give …

Some of that may be the hitter-friendly confines of the California League, but Lemond is now 24 years old with a big arm and only modest success to speak of after his third round selection out of Rice University in 2014. Take this June 12 outing that Baseball Census captured on video, for example — Zech Lemond sat 91-95 mph through his two innings of work, while showing off an 85 mph splitter and an 84-88 mph slider:

That natural arm strength alone with three pitches out of the pen should make Zech Lemond imposing to hitters, especially considering his size (listed at 6’1″ but undoubtedly at least an inch or two taller) and his incredible downward plane on pitches from his max effort, fully overhand release point. Lemond’s proven to be far too hittable, though, because while his control is very good, his command is imprecise and it has him consistently missing high in the zone where hitters can square him up. Add inconstant mechanics and release points to that—no doubt on account of his incredibly long, max effort delivery—and location outcomes are uncertain because there are so many moving parts to sync into rhythm with every pitch.

Beyond needed mechanical corrections, Lemond needs to pick up a bit more before he’s a truly lights out-type reliever. I had hypothesized a couple months ago that his newfound splitter was going to help him in the bullpen, and while he doesn’t yet have a good feel for it from a command perspective it has proven to be a wrinkle that he needs, especially against lefties. Next up: velocity. Working at 92 or 93 mph is average or slightly below coming out of modern baseball’s bullpen. If Lemond can add a couple ticks to that with mechanical refinements and improved strength over the next year or two, he’ll find he has a bigger margin for error when he misses up in the strike zone with that straight four-seam fastball.

Now adding a few miles per hour, even to a frame like Lemond’s, is far easier said than done. But I’ve observed him throwing long toss a few times this year, and his arm strength and arm speed are both undoubtedly above average. He’s a decent athlete on the mound, too, and even though his mechanics can get long and out of whack he does well to maximize that delivery and use his adrenaline junkie personality well in game action. The bullpen is an ideal fit for him, and I still really like him there in the future. All that said, though, the clock is ticking for the 24-year-old, and raw arm strength needs to translate into tough-to-hit stuff sooner rather than later if the late innings are to be a viable option for Zech Lemond and the San Diego Padres.

]]>http://baseballcensus.com/2017/07/13/san-diego-padres-zech-lemond-relief-pitcher-bullpen-conversion-analysis/feed/0San Diego Padres: First base prospect Josh Naylor promoted to Double-Ahttp://baseballcensus.com/2017/07/12/san-diego-padres-josh-naylor-promoted-san-antonio-baseball-video-analysis/
http://baseballcensus.com/2017/07/12/san-diego-padres-josh-naylor-promoted-san-antonio-baseball-video-analysis/#commentsWed, 12 Jul 2017 09:40:11 +0000http://baseballcensus.com/?p=9982San Bernardino, California —— On Tuesday afternoon, the San Diego Padres announced that they had promoted first base prospect Josh Naylor to Double-A San Antonio. Naylor, 20, had been slashing .297/.361/.452/.813 in his second try at High-A Lake Elsinore in 2017, with 16 doubles, eight home runs, and 27 walks in 72 games (283 at-bats). …

]]>San Bernardino, California —— On Tuesday afternoon, the San Diego Padres announced that they had promoted first base prospect Josh Naylor to Double-A San Antonio. Naylor, 20, had been slashing .297/.361/.452/.813 in his second try at High-A Lake Elsinore in 2017, with 16 doubles, eight home runs, and 27 walks in 72 games (283 at-bats). It’s a bit of a surprising promotion right now, with Naylor coming fresh off the Futures Game in Miami on Sunday. Plus, I certainly agree with Baseball Prospectus evaluator Wilson Karaman in that I have also seen Naylor take some noticeably bad, checked-out at-bats in the past few weeks.

That’s a short-term issue, though, and whether it was this week, or next month, or next year, Naylor is far ahead of the curve in the San Diego Padres’ system and was soon going to find himself in Double-A regardless. My bigger question mark surrounding the Canadian first baseman is his relatively limited ceiling if he doesn’t hit in the big leagues like everybody is hoping that he will. Naylor is, to use a euphemism, a ‘bad body’ guy. He’s also left-handed with extremely little foot speed and an unimpressive arm. That means he’s 100% guaranteed to be stuck at first base the rest of his career. And that means he really better hit, ideally for a nice little mix of average and power.

It’s not unlike New York Mets first base prospect Dominic Smith playing in Triple-A Las Vegas right now, for Smith, too, has no shot to play anywhere in the field besides first base and thus must derive all his value from an everyday gig at the position and a spot as a mainstay in the middle of a big league lineup. I’m (extremely) bullish on Smith to do that; I’m not nearly as optimistic that Josh Naylor can meet the same fate. It almost makes me wonder whether he’d be better served in an American League organization where he can split time between first base and designated hitter just to pick up some versatility rather than being asked to play 150+ games at first base every year in the National League.

There’s a lot to like about Naylor’s swing, and it’s improved quite a bit since I saw him a year ago in his first shot at Lake Elsinore, but I wonder about his focus and maturity in light of times when he shows off some noticeably bad pitch tracking and recognition. He gets out on his front foot a lot and makes more than his fair share of weak contact in poor, non-competitive, and very brief at-bats. His power stroke is coming along a bit and I like him to be a gap-to-gap guy, but a lot like another first baseman recently promoted out of the Cal League, I’m skeptical that the San Diego Padres will ever see significant over-the-fence power from Josh Naylor. Without significant power, he’d better hit for average a la Dominic Smith, or else Naylor will find himself struggling to recoup value with such a limited defensive role and lack of overall tools and versatility. I’m not yet sold on that happening.

All this could be wrong, of course, and my personal preference for Smith’s game over Naylor may certainly and quickly prove unwise. Player evaluation isn’t exactly a science for those who have been doing it for decades, much less a relative neophyte like myself, and so if Josh Naylor eventually wins himself a batting title and Smith is the one who washes out of the game, hey, I’ll wear that. Baseball is hard, and I’m bound to be wrong at least as often as I’m right. But after having watched Naylor play several dozen games between 2016 and 2017, I truly am skeptical that he’ll be the first baseman of the future in San Diego. Double-A should be a great test for him to that end, though, for this is the great separator level for so many prospects.

Josh Naylor, 1B, San Diego Padres — Scouting Video

To that end, we have quite a bit of video up on San Diego Padres 1B Josh Naylor, all of which is broken down by series/time period which you can see below:

]]>Lancaster, California —— Entering play on Monday night, San Diego Padres left-handed pitching prospect Thomas Dorminy is 2-1 with a 3.50 ERA over 18 games (one start) split between the Double-A San Antonio Missions and the High-A Lake Elsinore Storm with 42 strikeouts against 37 hits and 13 walks over 36.0 innings pitched in 2017. I observed the San Diego Padres former tenth round (2014) pick several times already in 2017; below is Baseball Census‘ full Thomas Dorminy scouting report, including video.

Thomas Dorminy Scouting Report — Video

Our video of San Diego Padres lefty Thomas Dorminy comes from a June 12 outing he had in relief on the road against the Lancaster JetHawks:

Thomas Dorminy Scouting Report — Notes

A little lefty who’s converting to the bullpen full time in 2017, Thomas Dorminy has a deep repertoire for someone who should project out as a situational left-handed reliever one day. The former tenth round pick of the San Diego Padres shows four pitches: an 89-91 mph fastball, a 74-76 mph curveball, an 81-82 mph changeup, and an 82-83 mph slider. The fastball isn’t overpowering or deceptive, coming out of a pretty standard high three-quarters arm slot, but Dorminy gets exceptional arm-side run on it. His control of the pitch is significantly better than his command, but when it’s well-placed glove-side, he can get backdoor strikes against lefties and move righties off the plate with tough pitches that start inside and run to the corner.

Dorminy’s curve is a relatively unique offering now that he’s working out of the ‘pen; it’s slow with a big hump, not unlike that of Padres teammate Jerry Keel, but it’s also very tight out of his hand. I’d love to see the spin rate on that pitch. I don’t think it has quite enough bite to miss bats in the high minors, but he’s using it well right now and could still see some development in its downward plane that sits 11-to-5 right now. The slider is definitely a distinct pitch from the curve, and works at times like a cutter more than a true, sweeping breaking ball. His changeup has decent hump and some arm-side tumble, though not as much movement—or as late—as the fastball. Nevertheless, he has good feel for it even out of the bullpen and it gives him a better weapon against right-handed hitters.

He’s undersized, likely smaller than his 6’0″ list, and there’s not much room for physical projection with age. He’s also 25 years old and in High-A, so Dorminy will have to move quickly if there’s to be any future projection here. But, well, he’s left-handed and he throws strikes with four pitches, so there’s always a chance.

Thomas Dorminy Scouting Report — Projection

Thomas Dorminy ought to project out as a future low-leverage long reliever out of the bullpen for the San Diego Padres, with a very likely ceiling as organizational depth in front of him. There’s an outside shot he could find his way into a left-handed situational role with the use of two breaking balls, but he doesn’t likely have enough deception in his delivery or wipeout pitch action in his repertoire to be tasked with the biggest left-handed at-bat(s) in high-lever relief every night. The four-pitch mix should instead help him fit as a long reliever; his command is good enough to slot in to a multi-inning role and he’ll be a pitch-to-contact guy as he moves forward against better hitters. Above all, though, he’s running out of time at 25 years old and needs to move quickly now that he’s transitioned to the bullpen.

]]>http://baseballcensus.com/2017/07/10/san-diego-padres-thomas-dorminy-scouting-report-baseball-video-july-2017/feed/0San Diego Padres: Gerardo Reyes flying under the radar with funky, deceptive late-inning stuffhttp://baseballcensus.com/2017/06/29/san-diego-padres-gerardo-reyes-pitcher-lake-elsinore-storm-baseball-video/
http://baseballcensus.com/2017/06/29/san-diego-padres-gerardo-reyes-pitcher-lake-elsinore-storm-baseball-video/#respondThu, 29 Jun 2017 22:45:31 +0000http://baseballcensus.com/?p=9686Lancaster, California —— Popular blogger Connor Farrell has a beloved yearly tradition going where, prior to the start of spring training, he compiles the annual “My Dude” nomination list: a series of unknown fringe prospects in the Colorado Rockies‘ organization that aren’t top 30 but may still have some future value. Colloquially you want your …

]]>Lancaster, California —— Popular blogger Connor Farrell has a beloved yearly tradition going where, prior to the start of spring training, he compiles the annual “My Dude” nomination list: a series of unknown fringe prospects in the Colorado Rockies‘ organization that aren’t top 30 but may still have some future value. Colloquially you want your “My Dude” pick to be a guy who can pop up casually in a conversation about prospects: “oh, Sam Hilliard? Yeah, that’s my dude.” Of course, the trick of Connor’s “My Dude” selection is to choose the right guy. Your dude can’t be an obvious prospect (picking Brendan Rodgers is too easy), and yet your dude also must be good enough to actually put together a dude-worthy season.

I think of the “My Dude” competition more than I’d like to admit as I watch a few thousand minor leaguers each year, and every now and then a surprisingly good ballplayer who isn’t anywhere near a top-30 prospect list or national attention pops up for me. So today is as good as any to introduce you to a prime “My Dude” candidate flying under the radar right now: San Diego Padres right-handed reliever Gerardo Reyes, pitching this summer with the High-A Lake Elsinore Storm.

Reyes, a Mexican-born 24-year-old originally signed as an undrafted free agent out of Galveston (TX) College by the Tampa Bay Rays, is 2-0 with a 2.21 ERA in 26 relief appearances in 2017, throwing 36.2 innings while striking out 34 batters against 17 walks and 29 hits. Listed at just 5’11” (which is probably generous) and 160 pounds (which is certainly generous), Reyes relies on a funky, unique delivery and some serious deception from his winding sidearm release point to miss bats. Fascinatingly, though, his fastball routinely works in the mid-90s, touching as high as 97 mph in my viewings this season.

Down below I’ll expand on why Gerardo Reyes is a prime “My Dude” candidate, but first, see for yourself what the San Diego Padres have in their High-A bullpen right now with our video series on the reliever.

Gerardo Reyes, RHP, San Diego Padres — In-Game Video

Our first video comes from Gerardo Reyes’ relief outing on April 18, 2017 against the Inland Empire 66ers (Los Angeles Angels). It’ll give you a pretty good idea of Reyes’ pitch life and difficulty for hitters to square up, specifically with his big, sweeping slider against righties:

Here’s another good behind-the-plate look at Gerardo Reyes, from June 12, 2017 against the Lancaster JetHawks (Colorado Rockies). In this game, he sat between 93-96 mph and touched 97 mph with a hard-running fastball out of that sidearm slot:

In a breakout clip from that Lancaster video, here is Gerardo Reyes facing off against the aforementioned Brendan Rodgers, and whiffing the Rockies’ top prospect on four pitches—all sliders:

And finally, to get a better sense of his pacing and physicality, here are open- and closed-side looks at Gerardo Reyes from each base line for a deeper look at his unique pitching mechanics:

What do the San Diego Padres have in Gerardo Reyes?

So what makes Gerardo Reyes a “My Dude” candidate, anyways? Well, for one, the gun slinger mechanics and straight sidearm release don’t typically occur in a guy who sits in the mid-90s—and especially when that guy is maybe 160 pounds. There’s some projection here if Reyes can fill out and build a modest amount more lower-body strength. He can get too side-to-side in his delivery and fall hard to first base rather than expending energy towards the plate, but a stronger lower half may help direct more consistent energy—and thus, velocity—straight to the catcher. With lower half power added to his exceptional arm speed and pitch action, he’d be absolutely filthy were he consistently in the upper-90s. He’s not far off that now, and could conceivably grow into it with some bulk over time.

Reyes couples the mid-90s fastball with an 87-89 mph changeup that shows some decent hump to it at times, and the big, sweeping wipeout slider you saw above in the Rodgers at-bat that sits 76-81 mph. There is some danger with the slider—it’ll flatten out and stay on one plane to the point where it sweeps across with little depth—but when Reyes releases it right, the pitch has good late, vertical break that makes it a legitimate strikeout threat. Better still, Reyes clearly (a) likes to throw it, and (b) has enough feel for it as both a get-over and put-away pitch, tunneling it to multiple places on and off the plate with relative consistency.

There are plenty of things that are keeping Gerardo Reyes off the radar; he’s old for this level at 24, he’s way undersized for most realistic projections at high-leverage relief down the line, and he’s maddeningly inconsistent at times despite having such good, raw stuff. Furthermore, his mechanics and release point can get out of whack fairly easily, as you might expect. That tends to affect his command more so than his control; on occasion, he’ll leave too many pitches belt-high over the plate, where his nasty, lively stuff is liable to flatten out. Improved consistency in mechanics should help correct some of that.

As is the case with everyone in High-A, significant further refinement is necessary for the San Diego Padres to potentially ever glean some big league value out of Gerardo Reyes, but he has a few very important things working in his favor already: natural arm strength, free and easy arm action from a funky angle, and serious deception, especially to right-handed hitters. And so Gerardo Reyes makes for a perfect “My Dude” selection, being far away from the San Diego Padres top 30 prospects list thanks to their organizational depth.

As is the case with every “dude,” it’s a long shot that undersized Gerardo Reyes will ever make the big leagues, and he’s liable to flame out in Double-A or Triple-A just as quickly as you’re reading this. But he does have some serious chops on the mound with raw arm strength and funky mechanics to make up for his diminutive figure, and he may just have enough quirky deception to sneak his way into some big league service time with the San Diego Padres over the next few years.

]]>Lancaster, California —— Entering play on Monday, San Diego Padres left-handed pitching prospect Jerry Keel is 4-5 with a 3.02 ERA over 14 games (12 starts) for three different levels in the Padres’ organization, including the High-A Lake Elsinore Storm, and he’s logged 79 strikeouts against 20 walks over 80.1 innings pitched in 2017. I observed the San Diego Padres’ former ninth round (2015) pick several times between 2016 and 2017; below is Baseball Census‘ full Jerry Keel scouting report, including several videos

Jerry Keel Scouting Report — Video

Our first video of San Diego Padres left-handed pitcher Jerry Keel is every pitch of his June 13, 2017 start against the Lancaster JetHawks:

In that start, the lefty went five innings, allowing seven earned runs on nine hits and a walk while striking out six batters. We’ve also got a couple Jerry Keel videos from 2016, when the San Diego Padres prospect was also pitching for the Lake Elsinore Storm:

Jerry Keel Scouting Report — Notes

As expected, Jerry Keel is a little more advanced in 2017 than he was from my looks last summer. He’s throwing slightly harder now—88-91 mph on June 13 as opposed to 86-89 mph in my 2016 looks—and he’s still a legitimate four-pitch lefty with the use of a fastball, changeup, curveball, and slider. His curve has really become something, sitting between 68 (!) and 72 mph and topping out at 74 mph with big, slow break. I personally like guys that throw true, slow overhand curveballs, and while many evaluators will (rightly) worry about issues hanging the pitch, Keel does a pretty good job commanding it down in the zone and to the corners of the plate. His curve is still slow enough to the point where some hitters can adjust to it enough to make contact, but he picks his spots well and when down in the zone it has great depth.

The curve is strengthened by the slider, which gives Jerry Keel an advantage because it’s a truly distinct second breaking ball; it sits 79-83 mph and unlike the curve, it’s very tight—almost like a cut fastball. Where the San Diego Padres lefty can use his curve against left-handed hitters, the slider has better potential against righties if he can get it in on their hands or down to their back foot. I didn’t see his slider very much in 2016, and the increased use of it now gives him another option when ahead in the count, as well as a more consistent weapon if/when the curve lacks bite. His fourth pitch, a changeup that sits 79-81 mph, is about what you’d expect: decent tumble and arm side run aided by his big frame (Jerry Keel is listed at 6’6″, 240 lbs., and looks every bit of it). The changeup is a good look against righties—twice on June 13 Keel used it to get Colorado Rockies prospect Brendan Rodgers out on his front foot with weak contact, and considering how infrequently Rodgers missed the barrel in early 2017, that’s an achievement in and of itself.

Jerry Keel Scouting Report — Projection

When you have a legitimate four-pitch lefty with good size, you keep him in the starting rotation as long as possible, and it’d behoove the San Diego Padres to do that with Jerry Keel. That said, I actually really like the idea of him coming out of the bullpen down the road. He’s not a plus velocity guy and likely won’t ever become one—if it hasn’t shown up by now, it’s not coming—but he’ll always have some serious deception with his size and long arms coupled with a deep repertoire.

There’s this little wrinkle, too:

That’s Jerry Keel facing off against Seattle Mariners outfielder Chantz Mack last August. See the slightly lower arm angle and hard arm-side run on the fastball? Mack—and several other lefties in the lineup that night—struggled with Keel’s infrequent dropdown, and at the time I really liked the downward pitch action he got from his new release point. I’m not necessarily advocating Keel become a full-time sidearmer (his overhand repertoire is too deep to abandon), but it’s something he didn’t show in that start two weeks ago, and down the road in his career I think the wrinkle could benefit him to wreak havoc on lefties.

Here’s another look at it:

It’s not a true sidearm release point, but it’s just enough of a very low three-quarters look—coupled with Keel’s long arms—that really gives downward, arm-side life to his fastball and makes it hard for lefties to stay in on his stuff.

Take an occasional wrinkle like that, add Keel’s deep repertoire and desirable frame, see if his velocity can play up a little bit in shorter stints, and I think you have the makings of a good situational left-handed reliever. There’s no reason to stick him in the bullpen right this moment, of course—it’d do Keel and the San Diego Padres well to keep having him gain experience with consistent innings in the rotation—but I wouldn’t be surprised, considering both his strengths and the Padres’ unusually deep roster of big-time pitching prospects, if Jerry Keel were to one day become a productive left-handed situational reliever. If done right, he could become flat-out nasty in that role.

]]>Lancaster, California —— Entering play on Friday night, San Diego Padres right-handed pitching prospect Cal Quantrill is 3-5 with a 3.86 ERA in 11 starts for the High-A Lake Elsinore Storm, with 60 strikeouts against 20 walks allowed in 56 innings pitched in 2017. I observed the San Diego Padres’ former first round (2016) pick for his June 12 start on the road in Lancaster; below is Baseball Census‘ full Cal Quantrill scouting report, including video.

Cal Quantrill Scouting Report — Video

Our video of San Diego Padres right-handed pitcher Cal Quantrill comes from his Monday, June 12 start on the road for Lake Elsinore against the Lancaster JetHawks:

In that start, Quantrill lasted just 2.2 innings pitched, giving up three earned runs on five hits and three walks while striking out four batters. He threw 72 pitches, but just 41 strikes, in that losing effort against the JetHawks.

Cal Quantrill Scouting Report — Notes

Cal Quantrill features a 92-96 mph fastball with good arm-side run and some sink, and when he commands it well down in the zone there’s good life on the pitch to both sides of the plate. He’s a Tommy John surgery survivor, but arm strength in recovery doesn’t appear to have been an issue as the San Diego Padres prospect’s velocity and fastball life were both above-average in his June 12 start in Lancaster. He’s free and easy on the mound with no obvious discomfort and commands the ball well enough to indicate he’s fully healthy and ready for more innings.

In addition to the fastball, Quantrill features a 78-81 mph slider that is very tight with late break, and an 80-84 mph changeup that he has great feel for to the point where he can throw it in virtually any count to both induce weak contact and miss bats. The slider, tight as it may be with that late 11-to-5 drop, isn’t a true wipeout pitch yet and can be so compact in its break that it looks like a cutter at times. It has good vertical depth at times, though, and should play well—especially against righties. The changeup is Quantrill’s best pitch. He has great feel for it and plainly trusts it against hitters on both sides of the plate, and it tumbles late and arm-side to miss barrels and get weak contact. Some moderate deception in his motion and good arm speed both further help him sell the pitch out of his hand.

Regarding his Tommy John surgery of a couple years ago while at Stanford, you can tell Cal Quantrill is still rusty at times now though healthy he may be. Not only have the San Diego Padres limited his innings thus far in his pro career, Quantrill is also fighting through minor mechanical inconstancies as he continues to adjust to pro ball one calendar year after being drafted. The righty looked consistent enough the first time through Lancaster’s lineup on Monday, but his mechanics started getting out of whack—and he started leaving pitches up in the zone—the longer he worked in that game, necessitating an early exit. That’ll be ironed out with more innings under his belt, though, and the most important thing at this juncture is getting further acclimated to pro ball while being sure elbow issues forever remain a thing of the past.

Cal Quantrill Scouting Report — Projection

Cal Quantrill is impressive for High-A and should move quickly through the minors thanks to advanced sequencing and that very good changeup which complements his above-average fastball. He’ll need to further refine his slider to give him a true third pitch with some wipeout potential, but he’s got more than enough arm strength and a good command profile to help the breaking ball come along in time. A great competitor on the mound with a solid pedigree—he’s the son of former big leaguer Paul Quantrill—not much from here on out should phase the younger Quantrill as the San Diego Padres continue to loosen the reins and allow him to work deeper into games as he gets further removed from the aftermath of surgery.

Long term, he’s a safe bet as a #3 or #4 starter—solid, with good stuff and enough in the repertoire to survive multiple times through an order, but not quite enough plus raw stuff so as to warrant the ‘ace’ label. That projection may change depending on the development of his slider, but as far as being a polished, projectable pitcher with a good frame and great competitiveness, the San Diego Padres found themselves a good one here.

]]>http://baseballcensus.com/2017/06/15/san-diego-padres-cal-quantrill-scouting-report-baseball-video-june-2017/feed/1San Diego Padres: Austin Allen has one job — hit the ball hard somewherehttp://baseballcensus.com/2017/06/12/san-diego-padres-austin-allen-baseball-catcher-prospect-hitting-balls-hard/
http://baseballcensus.com/2017/06/12/san-diego-padres-austin-allen-baseball-catcher-prospect-hitting-balls-hard/#commentsMon, 12 Jun 2017 17:48:25 +0000http://baseballcensus.com/?p=9325San Bernardino, California —— The first time I laid eyes on Austin Allen, he was busy hitting batting practice pitches to the top of the scoreboard at San Manuel Stadium in San Bernardino—a prodigious shot no matter how wind-swept the California League may be. The first time I spoke to him about it, a few …

]]>San Bernardino, California —— The first time I laid eyes on Austin Allen, he was busy hitting batting practice pitches to the top of the scoreboard at San Manuel Stadium in San Bernardino—a prodigious shot no matter how wind-swept the California League may be.

The first time I spoke to him about it, a few minutes later after batting practice had ended, I got the sense this was no big deal for the left-handed hitter.

“I’m not trying to hit home runs,” Allen told Baseball Census that day, laughing off his ridiculous moonshots to the top of the scoreboard. “When I do that, I get really long and I start to miss a lot of pitches. I’m just trying to hit line drives, and if they go out, they go out. The most perfect ball you can hit is a hard line drive right back at the pitcher, right? You’re perfectly on time and you squared it up on the barrel. Anything else, if it goes out, it’s technically a mistake. You got a little bit under the ball, but it’s a great result, and you hit it hard.”

“Whether you’re getting hits or getting outs, you can never go wrong if your main focus is trying to hit the ball as hard as you can and taking your best swing,” he said, eschewing the ‘hit it in the air’ revolution for a more traditional look at getting the barrel on the ball. “At the start of the year, I was fortunate to have some of those fall for me, and I also hit some right at people, but my main focus everyday is just getting a good pitch to hit, and hitting it hard.”

After a breakout season last year in the Midwest League—one where he hit .320/.364/.425/.790 in 109 games behind the plate, earning mid-season and post-season All-Star nods—Austin Allen is now on the San Diego Padres’ top 30 prospect list. He’s adjusting to better pitching than he’s ever seen before—more well-commanded breaking balls in hitter’s counts, he told me—but there’s enough raw talent in his game and more than enough raw power in his bat to leave one wondering about what he might become.

There’s an incredible value in having a power-hitting catcher, too, and it’s not just his batting practice bombs that turn heads any more. But as the catcher’s prospect status has risen and outside attention has increased, so too comes a more intense focus on opposing scouting reports. With that, Allen has noticed an uptick in defensive adjustments to counter his left-handed power.

“People shift on me, and I understand the strategy,” he acknowledged. “But if I hit something hard, it’s got a chance of falling. I want to be able to be one of those line-to-line guys, like a Freddie Freeman or a Joey Votto. Those guys are some of the best hitters in the league, and you can’t shift those guys, so they have more room to play with and more opportunities to get hits. I want to get to where I’m a good enough hitter that I can do that, day in and day out.”

It’s prescient to hear Austin Allen mention two first basemen as his inspiration for hitting through the shift, because there’s some thought that first base is where Allen will end up, too. He’s big for a catcher, listed at 6’4” and 225 lbs., and though he moves around well behind the plate, there’s a decent chance he’ll find a better fit at first base down the line—especially if he continues to hit for power.

Except, well, Austin Allen doesn’t see it that way.

“I want to catch, and I’ve made that as clear as I can to the guys in the front office, to our general manager and assistant general managers, to everybody,” he said. “I want to catch as long as I can. And if we’re being honest, that takes pressure off the bat. If I’m stuck over at first base, all the pressure is on the bat. That’s a position where you have to drive the ball, and hit homers and doubles.”

That’s a smart look at his long-term professional career, and Allen is right; catching most (or all) of the time will take pressure off his bat. And while the San Diego Padres have been working him out some at first base during pre-game drills, he’s still only ever been behind the plate in game action across his entire professional career. Now three years into pro ball, he’s really started to relish the opportunities that come with building relationships with a pitching staff.

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“I like working with my pitchers, and I like to control and lead the pitching staff,” Allen said, noting the importance of social skills when it comes to navigating the different personalities on a pitching staff. “Every guy that we have on our staff, I want to have the best relationship with them on the team. It comes down to trust. Whatever fingers I put down, I want them to throw that pitch with as much intent and conviction as they have. Building that relationship is one of the best parts about catching.”

And so the San Diego Padres might just have themselves a bona fide catching prospect in Lake Elsinore right now with Austin Allen. There are some things still to be ironed out, of course; as Allen himself noted, his swing can get long at times, and his defensive future is still up in the air if only because his raw power and massive stature may help dictate where he ultimately winds up. But go back to Freeman and Votto for a minute: whether a catcher or a first baseman, there’s a reason Austin Allen’s sights are set high.

“I’ve always wanted to be the best hitter and the best player on the field, ever since T-ball,” he admitted. “That’s just always been one of my things. I wouldn’t necessarily call it a chip on my shoulder, but I’ve always wanted to prove my worth. And after the Padres took a chance on me in the fourth round in 2015, all I can do for them now is give my best every single day. That’s all I want to do.”

]]>Lancaster, California —— Entering play in Lancaster on Monday night, San Diego Padres catching prospect Austin Allen is slashing .256/.351/.400/.751 for the High-A Lake Elsinore Storm through 49 games (180 at-bats), with 14 doubles, four home runs, and 24 walks against 48 strikeouts. I’ve observed the San Diego Padres’ former fourth round (2015) pick several times already throughout 2017; below is Baseball Census‘ full Austin Allen scouting report, starting with several videos. (In addition to our Austin Allen scouting report, you can also read our full feature interview with the San Diego Padres’ catcher by clicking here.)

Austin Allen Scouting Report — Video

Our first video of San Diego Padres catching prospect Austin Allen comes from an April series against the Inland Empire 66ers:

And our second Austin Allen video comes from a May series against the Modesto Nuts:

Austin Allen Scouting Report — Notes

The first thing that stands out about Austin Allen is his impressive stature, and he uses it well for leverage as a budding power hitter from the left side of the plate. He’s not a big home run guy yet (only 14 bombs in a shade under 800 career minor league at-bats), but his over-the-fence game is impressive in batting practice, to say the least, and he shows an ability to hit the ball extremely hard in game action when he finds the barrel. In turn, as he better understands how to pick his spots and manipulate his swing to producing more line drives in the air, he’ll undoubtedly hit more home runs and should soon become a plus power guy thanks to exceptional raw strength and very good bat speed.

His swing can get long at times, and when it’s long, Allen will get tied up and struggle to get around on inside pitches. But interestingly enough, that hasn’t translated into big strikeout numbers yet in his career. His contact abilities are far above average for a slugger, and that bodes well for his future projection in how he might adjust to better pitching. He takes good at-bats, works deep counts, and is starting to show the ability to walk some, too, which will help him immensely. I don’t think he has quite good enough barrel skills to hit for significant average down the road, but the fact that he limits strikeouts and is seeing a surging walk rate means there’s a more mature approach there than the grip-it-and-rip-it you so often expect from big power hitters.

The biggest question for Austin Allen centers on his defense, and whether (or for how long) the San Diego Padres will let him keep catching. Allen himself is very clearly on the record as wanting to catch above all else, but he’s massive (6’4″, 225 lbs. with thick legs and broad shoulders) and there just aren’t many catchers that size in professional baseball—though one or two do come to mind. He likely will develop enough power to find at least a part-time home at first base, and his large stature may soon be a detriment to him behind the plate as the inevitable wear and tear of the catcher position will undoubtedly take its toll.

He’s a good enough pitch caller with decent arm strength, and he’s very talented at dealing with pitchers, but his receiving skills, framing skills, and throwing mechanics behind the plate could all stand to improve. Allen would be very valuable to the Padres if he were to become a true power-hitting catcher, but he may lack the overall athleticism to stay back there in the big leagues and might be better served at first base. He’s never played the position professionally, though I’ve seen him put through pre-game workouts there several times this year, and he looks smooth with soft hands and good enough footwork to develop at the position. Perhaps a platoon fit—some catcher, some first base—would be an ideal future outlook for the big, strong prospect.

Austin Allen Scouting Report — Projection

The power will come, and soon Allen will find himself an above-average slugger with the ability to hit some doubles and flash more than a bit of over-the-fence pop from the left side of the plate. It’s aided by his ability to put the bat on the ball, which will serve him well in being able to adjust to better pitching in the high minors, and then the big leagues. The fuzziest area of his projection, though, will always remain his defense. Buoyed by his intensity to want to catch and an innate ability to lead pitchers, it’d behoove the San Diego Padres to leave Allen behind the plate as long as possible, polishing his receiving and framing skills and letting his bat play big for the role.

The catcher position has changed rapidly in recent years, and teams are increasingly willing to look to non-traditional candidates to catch in platoon roles; to that end, I believe there’s a fit for Allen to play 40-60% of his games behind the plate, and the other 40-60% of his games at first base down the road. The everyday wear and tear of the position may prove too tough for his big stature down the line, but if he’s well-managed in a platoon role at the position, I think there’s considerable value to be pulled from the prospect. He’ll help himself by continuing to work at first base on his footwork and hands to the point where the Padres eventually put him in at the position for game action, and he’ll further improve his long-term outlook by continuing to develop whatever power will grow out of his strong stature and line drive-heavy swing. But it’s not often a power-hitting catcher comes around, and the San Diego Padres may just have one in Austin Allen.

]]>Modesto, California —— Entering play on Saturday night, San Diego Padres right-handed pitching prospect Jose Ruiz is 1-1 with a 5.40 ERA over 18 relief appearances for the High-A Lake Elsinore Storm. A hard-throwing catcher-turned-reliever, Ruiz has 19 strikeouts and eight walks over 18.1 innings pitched this year, his first full season spent as a pitcher after spending five years as a catcher in the Padres’ organization, where he hit .203/.239/.249/.488 in 947 career minor league at-bats. I’ve seen several outing by the San Diego Padres’ pitching prospect this year; below is Baseball Census‘ full Jose Ruiz scouting report plus two videos.

Jose Ruiz Scouting Report — Video

Our first video of San Diego Padres pitcher Jose Ruiz comes from an April 17, 2017 game against the Inland Empire 66ers:

And here’s our second Jose Ruiz video, from a May 6, 2017 road outing against the Modesto Nuts:

Jose Ruiz Scouting Report — GIFs

For a more specific look at his mechanics, here are a few Jose Ruiz baseball GIFs from each of those two outings:

Jose Ruiz Scouting Report — Notes

A former catcher with a big arm who the San Diego Padres began to convert to the mound in 2016, Jose Ruiz is now on the organization’s 40-man roster and could move quickly as an outside sleeper pick for a late-inning bullpen arm. There’s never been any doubt about his arm strength; radar guns across the California League light up when Ruiz enters, thanks to a working fastball at 94-97 mph (I’ve seen it top out as high as 99 mph in several outings). It’s a pretty straight pitch, but can occasionally take off arm-side and high when Ruiz is late to his release point—no doubt the product of a relative lack of experience on the mound.

Ruiz throws like a catcher, with short, relatively clean arm action, and there’s not much to his mechanics. As a power reliever, though, he need not be subtle about much. Add his 82-86 mph slider to that plus-plus fastball, and it’s no secret what the San Diego Padres’ prospect is trying to do during his outings. And while he’s not missing bats at as high a clip as you might expect (19 strikeouts in 18.1 innings pitched this year; 33 whiffs in 30.2 innings pitched for his career), he has the arm strength and attack mentality that should improve his whiff rate in time.

As you probably expect, Jose Ruiz’s command profile is fairly poor right now. His release points can get out of whack, and he’s more of a thrower than a pitcher, so there’s a good deal of extraneous movement in his delivery. His mechanics remind me a great deal of Houston Astros righty Rogelio Armenteros, though, throwing hard off a stiff front leg at release. Compare our Jose Ruiz videos above to this, from Armenteros taken last year while the righty was in the Cal League with Lancaster:

Armenteros gets exceptional downward plane on his fastball and shows a good, hard slider in addition to a deeper repertoire; I think Ruiz can turn into that same kind of thrower with a plus fastball that is difficult to barrel because of good downward plane. To do that, though, Ruiz must vastly improve his command profile and become more consistent in his release point. His slider, too, should improve with better mechanics and a more consistent release point, but even now, it’s had its moments and is clearly an intriguing off-speed pitch that’ll vastly help him in the coming years.

Jose Ruiz Scouting Report — Projection

The expectation, of course, is that Jose Ruiz should move relatively quickly out of Lake Elsinore, and his 40-man roster status is a testament to that. There’s not much subtlety to his repertoire, and even if opposing hitters know what’s coming, the 99 mph fastball/85 mph slider is a very tough combination to time, anyways. That said, it’s imperative the San Diego Padres’ prospect rapidly improves his control and command; he has a tendency to leave fastballs up in the zone, and he throws too many non-competitive pitches due to inconsistent mechanics, landing spots, and release points. He’s not always able to establish much more than his get-over fastball, and even High-A hitters can time those up when they see a few in a row.

Jose Ruiz’s catcher-to-pitcher transformation is a worthy one for the San Diego Padres to make. There aren’t many men who routinely touch 99 mph, and here we find one of them; he throws the hell out of the ball and isn’t afraid to attack hitters, and those traits will serve him well moving forward. If he can pick up just a few command and mechanical nuances of pitching in relief, he could conceivably wind up as an eighth-inning set-up man, or even a closer, should all things go well. Still just 22 years old with that kind of ceiling, he’s worth the low-risk gamble.

]]>Salt Lake City, Utah —— Entering play on Wednesday, San Diego Padres right-handed pitching prospect Adam Cimber is 2-1 with a 3.49 ERA over 18 relief appearances in 2017, primarily with the El Paso Chihuahuas. He’s struck out 23 batters against just two walks (though he’s hit four batters), and he’s allowed just 24 hits in 28.1 innings pitched. I’ve observed the San Diego Padres’ former ninth round (2013) pick several times throughout 2017; below is Baseball Census‘ full report on Adam Cimber, including video.

Adam Cimber Scouting Report — Video

Here’s our video of San Diego Padres RHP Adam Cimber, which comes from a May relief outing against the Salt Lake Bees in Salt Lake City, Utah:

Adam Cimber Scouting Report — Notes

Adam Cimber has a tall, lanky build, with a lot of moving parts in his delivery, especially in his lower half—as you’d expect from a sidearm/submarine pitcher. His deliver is pretty unique, if only for his arm angle, but he doesn’t produce a significant amount of velocity on his fastball, working with a sinking two-seamer that typically sits 87-89 mph and tops out at 90 mph. That said, his control is excellent, and he can effectively use the sinker at the bottom of the zone on either side.

As an out pitch, Cimber can occasionally mix in a low 80s slider that serves as a change-of-pace and allows him to get strikeouts. It has a good hump and good, late bite, and he can bury it with two strikes or throw a more sweeping version of it over the plate when he needs to pitch from behind. He’s walked just two hitters against 23 strikeouts over his 28.1 innings pitched in 2017, an exceptional ratio that alone begins to tell the story about Adam Cimber’s relative strengths.

As you’d expect, Cimber’s delivery and release point make him an absolute nightmare for right-handed hitters; by the end of May, righties had a .512 OPS against him this year. His arm action can get long in the back, so he doesn’t hide the ball extremely well, but his command and control are both above-average and he knows how to manipulate his sinker for good, late bite. And while lefties typically hit opposite-handed sidearm pitchers very well, they weren’t doing a whole lot better: the San Diego Padres’ prospect had kept lefties to just a .678 OPS during that same time frame, an encouraging sign for his bullpen future.

Obviously, Adam Cimber’s skill set and delivery—and relative lack of velocity—make it seem like he’d make for a strong situational mid- to late-inning short reliever who can match up well against righties. El Paso seems to have other plans at times, though, as he threw 51 pitches over three innings during this May 23 outing we have on video, as well as 32 pitches over 2 2/3 innings three days prior. May mean very little in the long run, but his extended outings are noteworthy. Ultimately, his big league profile—if any—ought to be as a late-inning guy who comes in to face one or two big righties before being removed, but the fact that he can have some success in Triple-A against both-handed hitters doesn’t hurt and should only further gain him notice if/when the San Diego Padres decide they need a ground ball specialist.

]]>http://baseballcensus.com/2017/06/07/san-diego-padres-adam-cimber-scouting-report-baseball-video-june-2017/feed/0San Diego Padres: Franchy Cordero MLB debut — here’s what to expecthttp://baseballcensus.com/2017/05/28/san-diego-padres-franchy-cordero-mlb-debut-heres-what-to-expect/
http://baseballcensus.com/2017/05/28/san-diego-padres-franchy-cordero-mlb-debut-heres-what-to-expect/#respondSun, 28 May 2017 17:38:48 +0000http://baseballcensus.com/?p=9063Salt Lake City, Utah —— On Saturday, the San Diego Padres promoted outfielder Franchy Cordero to the big leagues, and he got his first at-bat that evening against the Washington Nationals. Baseball Census was on hand a few days earlier to watch Cordero play for the Triple-A El Paso Chihuahuas on the road in Salt …

At the time of his call-up, Franchy Cordero was slashing .289/.349/.520/.869 in 42 games with El Paso. In 173 at-bats, he had hit five doubles, seven triples, and seven home runs, and stolen eight bases, though he did strike out 59 times.

Here’s a video of Cordero hitting in that game against Sale Lake earlier this week, including a clip of him slugging an opposite-field home run:

Franchy Cordero MLB debut: Offensive scouting report

Franchy Cordero has a tall, lanky build, but he provides decent power that is generated by a long swing with good leverage from a high stance. He seems to have added a little more power relative to his last few seasons in pro ball, as he hit seven home runs in about 200 Triple-A plate appearances before his call-up, whereas he hit just 11 homers in 602 PAs across three different leagues last year. That power might be aided by playing full time in the PCL, though he did split time between the hitter-friendly Cal League and the PCL at points last year, too. His long swing will cause him problems, though, and he has some trouble with inside pitches and hard throwing pitchers. He also struggles to hit balls high in the strike zone, and can get out of his approach to lunge down to off-speed pitches in the dirt thanks to inconsistent pitch recognition.

If he can shorten his swing somewhat and adjust to the hole in the top half of his strike zone, Cordero could be a solid speedy gap hitter with plus athleticism. He doesn’t have quick acceleration, but once he gets into full gear he’s a plus runner—traits that maybe help him on defense more than at the plate and on the bases. That said, he can steal bases at times, and could make himself into more of a base running threat if he focused on that aspect of his game.

Franchy Cordero MLB debut: Defensive scouting report

Long legs allow Franchy Cordero to cover a lot of ground in center field, and that top speed once he gets into full gear gives him above-average range at the position. He should have no problem sticking in center field because of it, and thanks to solid instincts in the outfield with good reads on the ball hit off the bat. His arm strength isn’t exceptional, but it’s probably slightly above average, and certainly good enough to play center field every day, or to play between all three outfield positions in shorter spurts.

Cordero has played 165 games at shortstop in his minor league career, and even though he’s been strictly an outfielder since the start of 2016, it’s a testament to his hands and overall defensive profile that he used to be a professional shortstop. His versatility in the outfield may be his best asset, though, and he could find himself eventually falling into a fourth outfielder role that can play all three positions well while having something of an impact on the offensive side of his game.

]]>http://baseballcensus.com/2017/05/28/san-diego-padres-franchy-cordero-mlb-debut-heres-what-to-expect/feed/0San Diego Padres: Josh Naylor Scouting Report, May 2017http://baseballcensus.com/2017/05/09/josh-naylor-scouting-report-san-diego-padres-baseball-video-may-2017/
http://baseballcensus.com/2017/05/09/josh-naylor-scouting-report-san-diego-padres-baseball-video-may-2017/#commentsTue, 09 May 2017 21:17:28 +0000http://baseballcensus.com/?p=8343San Bernardino, California —— At the top of this post, watch one of our scouting videos of San Diego Padres top first base prospect Josh Naylor batting for the Lake Elsinore Storm in a High-A California League series in April 2017 against the Inland Empire 66ers at San Bernardino’s San Manuel Stadium. To visit Josh Naylor’s player …

Josh Naylor scouting report notes

Josh Naylor was announced as the California League’s Player of the Month for April earlier this week after leading the league in RBI, extra base hits, and total bases, and even though he’s temporarily landed on the disabled list—it was a let-down not to see him play in any of this weekend’s four-game series in Modesto—it looks like the teenager is figuring out High-A in his second go-round with the Lake Elsinore Storm in 2017.

Naylor looks to be in a bit better shape this year compared to last year, but his body type and weight will probably always be a concern much in the same way that New York Mets prospect Dominic Smith will always have to fight that physical battle. Naylor has slimmed down somewhat early in 2017, though, and his early results have benefitted. The more-trim figure will help him at first base more so than the plate, where he’s a functional defender with soft hands and a good feel for moving around the bag. His arm is fine, too, but he has no foot-speed, and while that matters not at first base itself, it’ll keep him there permanently because there are very few other places you could put him on defense. To play first base for an entire career, then, one must hit.

He’s done that quite a bit early this year with a .306/.358/.531/.889 slash line through his first 23 games, with five doubles and five more home runs in 98 at-bats before his trip to the disabled list. Naylor is taller in his stance this year than in 2016 (video of this year vs. last year below), and that difference in set-up is helping bring out the power in his long, beautiful stroke. His bat speed has improved a tick, too, and he looks more athletic at the plate in 2017 than he did during a difficult second half of 2016 after he was traded over to the San Diego Padres from the Miami Marlins in the Andrew Cashner deal.

As has always been the case for Josh Naylor, his plate coverage is good and he’s content in his approach to go the other way when he’s pitched that way. And yet it seems he’s finally starting to work a deep count and wait for a pitch to drive rather than just being content with slapping an opposite-field single on the first low-and-away strike he sees. His power numbers should continue to grow as he adds that patience to his approach, and it’s a good sign for his long-term future in much the same way that it’s starting to come together for the Los Angeles Angels‘ well-regarded first base prospect Matt Thaiss.

All that said about deep counts, though, Naylor must improve his ability to draw a walk. His contact skills are good, and his strikeout totals aren’t concerning for his role, but he’s going to get pitched around a lot during his career and it’s important that he starts to be content enough to take those at-bats and the free bases therein. That’ll come with age, you’d imagine, but Naylor will always be trying to do it against older, far more advanced pitchers, and so his on-base skills may be a long time in coming.

Having said that, let’s recalibrate: Josh Naylor is still just 19 years old. When Luis Urias came through Lake Elsinore as a teenager last year he was a phenom, and for good measure—very few teenagers can hang in High-A. Naylor is doing the same thing now, and another good month or two after he gets off the disabled list might push him to Double-A for the second half of the summer. That’d be an aggressive move by the San Diego Padres for his age, but if Josh Naylor has another long sting as solid as April, there won’t be much more for him to prove here in the California League.

Josh Naylor scouting report: 140 characters or less

An advanced hitter, Josh Naylor stands taller at the plate in 2017 and has made adjustments that’ll soon bring out above-average raw power.

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Josh Naylor scouting report video

Here’s a look at our most recent Josh Naylor baseball video, taken during a series for the Storm in mid-April:

Compare that to how Josh Naylor looked last year — same team, same league, same level — when he came over to the Lake Elsinore Storm after a trade between the Padres and the Miami Marlins:

As you can see, he’s taller at the plate this year than last year, and slightly less spread out and flat-footed in his stance and stride. The combination of both those things should allow him to activate his hips a little bit more and in turn, bring out the above-average raw power in his bat. Last year’s Josh Naylor scouting report had him struggling a bit in High-A as he found his footing with the San Diego Padres, but it appears he’s sure on the way in 2017.

]]>http://baseballcensus.com/2017/05/09/josh-naylor-scouting-report-san-diego-padres-baseball-video-may-2017/feed/1San Diego Padres: Zech Lemond Scouting Report, May 2017http://baseballcensus.com/2017/05/06/zech-lemond-scouting-report-san-diego-padres-baseball-video-may-2017/
http://baseballcensus.com/2017/05/06/zech-lemond-scouting-report-san-diego-padres-baseball-video-may-2017/#commentsSat, 06 May 2017 19:45:57 +0000http://baseballcensus.com/?p=8149San Bernardino, California —— At the top of this post, watch one of our baseball scouting videos of San Diego Padres right-handed pitching prospect Zech Lemond, taken from an April 2017 appearance he made for the High-A Lake Elsinore Storm of the California League against the Inland Empire 66ers. Entering play Saturday night, Lemond has …

]]>San Bernardino, California —— At the top of this post, watch one of our baseball scouting videos of San Diego Padres right-handed pitching prospect Zech Lemond, taken from an April 2017 appearance he made for the High-A Lake Elsinore Storm of the California League against the Inland Empire 66ers. Entering play Saturday night, Lemond has struck out 22 hitters against just two walks in 14.1 innings pitched this year for the Storm.

Zech Lemond scouting report notes

The Zech Lemond baseball journey is now into its third straight season at High-A Lake Elsinore, and the first two didn’t go so well. In 32 games (22 starts) in 2015, the Rice University product allowed 175 hits and a .326 opponents’ batting average over 130 innings pitched and finished 5-10 with a 5.54 ERA. The Padres sent Lemond back to Lake Elsinore in 2016, kept him in the rotation, and things didn’t go so well again: in 20 games (14 starts), Lemond allowed 113 hits and a .334 opponents’ batting average over just 81.1 innings pitched, finishing 6-6 with a 7.30 ERA.

Not great.

So when the San Diego Padres sent him back to Lake Elsinore for a third chance this year, you’d have been right to be skeptical — except that a full-time shift to the bullpen has completely changed how Lemond is setting up hitters, and his stuff is playing up far better in short stints where he can max out and miss bats. Lemond’s career has taken a turn for the better with the Storm, and entering Saturday, he’s now whiffed 22 batters against just two walks in his first 14.1 innings pitched (over seven relief appearances) with a 3.77 ERA this year. He’s tough to square up, and he’s proving that despite being overly hittable as a starter, when he’s a max effort relief option he can be hell on hitters and he can miss bats in tight, late-game situations.

As you’ll see in our set of Zech Lemond baseball videos both at the top of this post and below, the righty is doing it all with a very hard fastball that’s coming out of a release point nearly straight over the top. Lemond makes that work on his right-handed frame with long arms and mechanics that leave him fairly tall tot he plate. When he gets on top of the ball and commands it down in the zone, he can get great plane on it, making the pitch extremely tough for hitters to square up. The pitch is hard, too, sitting 91-95 mph and occasionally touching a bit higher now that he’s coming out of the ‘pen. But it’s also readily apparent why he’s been so hittable in the past, too: Lemond’s fastball is straight, with little by way of consistent cutting or running action either way as it crosses the plate. If he misses his spot and leaves a fastball up in the zone, even with good velocity, it’ll flatten out and leave him liable to get tagged pretty hard if a guy can get the ball on his barrel.

Lemond is a strike thrower to an extreme, and that makes him perhaps a bit too hittable to pitch in the late innings at higher levels, so there’s little question he needs another wrinkle to his fastball. His slider shows flashes of being an above-average pitch though, thanks to its very, very tight spin and its hard downward drop in the 80-85 mph velocity range. When Lemond releases it in the right place, with good fastball arm action, it’s a difficult pitch to pick up and it’s helping to account for a good portion of the righty’s strikeouts this season as his main change-of-pace to hitters on both sides of the plate.

There’s little to no movement on Lemond’s changeup right now, but he may not need the pitch as much if he’s in the bullpen full time—and doubly so if he can develop a modest cutter or two-seamer to play off his fastball-slider combo. He is adding a split-fingered fastball, though, as he mentioned to us in a feature interview also up today, so that’ll be a nice new wrinkle that should complement his power stuff extremely well and give him another pitch that’s tough for hitters to square up when he commands it down in the zone.

He’s notably slow to the plate, which is an interesting and unfortunate wrinkle in his bullpen game. Runners get good reads and great jumps on him, and his slow delivery and long arm action—which includes showing the ball very early behind his back after he breaks his hands—combine to make it extremely difficult for his catchers to throw out base stealers. That can be adjusted somewhat, you’d hope, but when Lemond does quicken his pace to the plate, he’s liable to drag his long arm action behind his body and end up misfiring high and arm-side because his release point can’t catch up to his lower half.

Lemond will be 25 years old in October, and 2017 represents his third sustained shot at High-A, so you’d have to imagine that it’s now-or-never if he’s to have any potential impact on the Padres one day. He’s pitching well early this summer and appears to have taken well to a max-effort bullpen role. He certainly looks the part, and he’s an intense presence on the mound who’s unafraid to challenge any hitter in any situation. With 22 strikeouts to his name against just two walks, you’d imagine that another couple strong outings missing bats in High-A will prompt the San Diego Padres to finally test him in Double-A and see if his transition to the bullpen can stick at higher levels.

]]>http://baseballcensus.com/2017/05/06/zech-lemond-scouting-report-san-diego-padres-baseball-video-may-2017/feed/1San Diego Padres: Zech Lemond is back home in the bullpen — and he just armed himself with a new weaponhttp://baseballcensus.com/2017/05/06/san-diego-padres-zech-lemond-lake-elsinore-storm-bullpen-relief-pitcher-splitter/
http://baseballcensus.com/2017/05/06/san-diego-padres-zech-lemond-lake-elsinore-storm-bullpen-relief-pitcher-splitter/#commentsSat, 06 May 2017 19:33:08 +0000http://baseballcensus.com/?p=8190Modesto, California —— After two tough years as a starting pitcher, something had to change for Zech Lemond. The right-hander has always had the stuff—a very hard fastball, a hard breaking ball, and a sturdy frame—but those things never came together like you’d expect after the San Diego Padres made him their third round pick …

]]>Modesto, California —— After two tough years as a starting pitcher, something had to change for Zech Lemond.

The right-hander has always had the stuff—a very hard fastball, a hard breaking ball, and a sturdy frame—but those things never came together like you’d expect after the San Diego Padres made him their third round pick out of Rice University in 2014.

Between 2015 and 2016—both seasons spent with the Lake Elsinore Storm of the California League—Lemond was far too hittable in a rotation role: an 11-16 record and a 6.03 ERA in 51 games (35 starts) pace those two seasons, with 281 hits allowed in 206 innings pitched.

Sure, the California League favors hitters, but there’s no question Lemond had more to show than those two underwhelming summers. Now, he’s back in Lake Elsinore once again, hoping the third time is the charm. Only this time he’s back at home in the bullpen, and he’s having a renaissance as his hard stuff and max-effort attitude play up in short relief stints.

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“I tried to make the adjustment into a starter and it didn’t really work out for me, I could never really get that big adrenaline rush,” Lemond told Baseball Census on Friday evening ahead of Lake Elsinore’s road game against the Modesto Nuts. “But now that I’m down in the bullpen again it’s like, as soon as I get that call, boom. My heart starts racing. I feel like I’m back at home.”

If the season’s first month is any indication, Zech Lemond may have just found himself a permanent home down in the ‘pen. It may soon push him out of his three-year home in Lake Elsinore, too, and finally up the San Diego Padres’ minor league ladder to Double-A if he keeps pitching like this.

Across his first seven appearances (14.1 innings) in 2017, Lemond has whiffed 22 batters and walked just two. He’s proving to be tougher to hit out of the bullpen, too, with a .279 opponents’ batting average; compare that to 2016 (.324) and 2015 (.326) and progress is coming. Fourteen innings is a small sample size, of course, but early returns have Lemond coming to the ballpark every day with a new outlook.

“It’s a comfort to be in this role, and to be able to go one day at a time rather than thinking of so much extra stuff as a starter,” he said. “Now I go out there and it’s just, boom, let the catcher put a sign down and that’s the only thing I’m concentrating on. Being in the moment, having the ability to compete every day is just so much more exciting for me.”

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You have to be something of an adrenaline junkie to come out of the ‘pen. Your entire job is predicated on sitting around for three hours before rapidly warming up and running in for what’s often the most important few batters of the game. Maybe that’s the fit for Lemond, who relishes the elevated heart rate and high-pressure tight rope of the late innings. It’s certainly the best fit for his hard, hard stuff; put simply, there’s not much nuance in how he approaches hitters.

“I just throw the ball as hard as I can and hope for the best, really,” he said, laughing. “I just pray to God that they miss the ball. But the Lord blessed me with a strong arm, so I’m just going to keep working on that, keep focusing on throwing every pitch as hard as I can.”

He paused, and smirked — the look of a guy with a secret.

“I’m actually trying to bring a third pitch now, I’m trying to add a splitter,” he added. “I just started playing around with it today. I just started throwing it hard. I spent all day yesterday working with my grips and my fingers on it in the bullpen.”

“You get a hitter 1-2, and throw it like a fastball, he’ll swing at it like it’s a fastball, and then it disappears,” he said, smiling again with the look of a guy who can’t wait to bring out his brand new pitch. “You remember that Backyard Baseball freeze ball pitch? Yeah. I want one of those.”

It may never be a video-game quality pitch, but the thought of adding a splitter to his repertoire is intimidating, to say the least. And if it ever comes to fruition, Lemond will have a bullpen catcher to thank.

Before the season opener last month, the San Diego Padres came up to Lake Elsinore for an exhibition game, and Lemond ended up throwing for the big league club that day. In the bullpen while warming up, something clicked in the Padres’ bullpen catcher upon seeing him for the first time.

“I had been warming up with their catcher in the bullpen, and after I went in to pitch, [Lake Elsinore reliever] Colby Blueberg told me later, like, ‘dude, they were talking about you after you left, and they were saying how if you brought a splitter in, you could be nasty,’” Lemond revealed. “That’s when I started thinking about it. As an over-the-top guy, if I can come straight down hill with a splitter, that could be a next-level pitch.”

He may never get stuff good enough for Backyard Baseball, but as far as professional baseball is concerned, it looks like Zech Lemond has finally found where he’s meant to be.

One thing is certain, at least: this brand new splitter will fit right in with everything else he throws.

“I’ll just take that splitter, grip it, and throw it really hard, just like my fastball, and just like my slider,” Lemond said, still smiling and clearly excited to keep working on his new project. “Grip it and rip it, and see how it goes.”

]]>http://baseballcensus.com/2017/05/06/san-diego-padres-zech-lemond-lake-elsinore-storm-bullpen-relief-pitcher-splitter/feed/2San Diego Padres: Eric Lauer Scouting Report, April 2017http://baseballcensus.com/2017/04/23/eric-lauer-scouting-report-san-diego-padres-video-april-2017/
http://baseballcensus.com/2017/04/23/eric-lauer-scouting-report-san-diego-padres-video-april-2017/#respondSun, 23 Apr 2017 13:46:48 +0000http://baseballcensus.com/?p=7486San Bernardino, California —— At the top of this post, watch our baseball prospect scouting video of San Diego Padres left-handed pitching prospect Eric Lauer, filmed during a start he made on April 17, 2017 in the California League as a member of the Lake Elsinore Storm against the Inland Empire 66ers. In the game, …

In the game, Lauer’s second start of the 2017 season, the lefty threw six innings against Inland Empire and did not allow an earned run, striking out six hitters while walking one and allowing just three hits on the night. Entering play on Sunday—when Lauer is due to make his third start for the Lake Elsinore Storm this season—they lefty is 0-1 with a 3.72 ERA and 13 strikeouts against four walks and eight hits in his first 9.2 innings of work.

Eric Lauer scouting report notes

At least in this start against Inland Empire, Eric Lauer came exactly as advertised: polished, mature, calm, collected, and with an obvious plan on the mound and consistency in his mechanics and command. The former first round draft pick (2016) out of Ohio’s Kent State University looked every bit the mature college starter in carving up the 66ers’ lineup, and his free, easygoing demeanor on the mound is a sight to see considering he’s still just 21 years old and hasn’t thrown 50 pro innings in his life.

Lauer sits 89-92 mph but can touch a bit higher than that; see him throw and you feel there’s a lot more in the tank should he choose to exert himself and reach back for it, too, though he rarely does. The lefty has command of four pitches, and three of them showed up very well in the April 17 start, beginning with Lauer’s fastball that shows cutting action and can wreak havoc on right-handed batters at times just as lefties. He couples it well with a changeup that has good arm-side fade and some depth, and Lauer can command the pitch to both sides of the plate, making it effective to induce ground balls and weak contact against hitters from each side of the plate.

He throws two breaking balls—a slider and a curve—with the slider being far more advanced to this point. The slider is tight, sitting 77-82 mph with good tilt and hard, late movement. Lauer commands this one as well as his changeup, giving him two off-speed pitches that flash above-average and can keep hitters honest and off balance. The curveball is still something of a work in progress for the level, and the San Diego Padres prospect lacks some of the feel for it that would make it a better offering. It can morph into a slurve and command of the pitch is far from the other three in his repertoire, but because he has those other three good pitches, Lauer can flash the curve here and there to make it work well enough when he needs a breaking ball with a bigger hump.

The Padres are high on Lauer for good reason; the lefty is polished and calm on the mound, repeats his mechanics very well, and clearly understands how to sequence hitters to the point where he may not be long for High-A. Considering he’s a first rounder from a Division I program, it wouldn’t shock me to see Eric Lauer in Double-A by season’s end, and there’s an outside shot at getting some time in the big leagues by the very end of next season. Beyond that, his ceiling is probably that of a #3 starter, with smart money perhaps on him as a back-end rotation member with enough stuff to work big league hitters every fifth day. His ultimate ceiling will depend on things like how his curveball develops, of course, but Eric Lauer has a high floor and he’ll get every chance to have a major impact on the Padres’ big league club soon enough.