The trend estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series decreased by 0.3% in December 2004. This follows a revised decrease of 0.2% in both November and October 2004.

The trend estimate decreased in all states with the largest decreases being in Queensland (-0.8%), New South Wales and the Northern Territory (both -0.3%).

Over the three months to December 2004, the trend estimate decreased by $126m. Department stores (-$43m) and Hospitality and services (-$33m) had the largest decreases, while Household good retailing increased by $35m.

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES

The seasonally adjusted estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series fell by 0.3% in December 2004. This followed revised decreases of 0.2% in November 2004 and 1.2% in October 2004.

In original terms, Australian turnover increased by 25.6% in December 2004 compared with November 2004. Chains and other large retailers (which are completely enumerated) rose by 31.1%, while 'smaller' retailers (the sampled units) rose by 18.2%.

Australian turnover increased by 3.7% in December 2004 compared with December 2003. Chains and other large retailers increased by 7.3%, while 'smaller' retailers fell by 1.4%.

VOLUME MEASURES

The trend volume measure of turnover rose by 0.1% in the December quarter 2004. This follows an increase of 0.4% in the September quarter 2004. In seasonally adjusted terms, the volume measure fell by 1.0% in the December quarter 2004.

NOTES

CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

Quarterly chain volume data are shown in tables 14 and 15 of this issue.

TRADING DAY EFFECT

Trading day variation is an important component within the Retail trade data. December 2004 had five Wednesdays, Thursdays and Fridays, days which are typically heavy shopping days. This influence is estimated and removed as part of the seasonal adjustment process. The trading day factor is updated monthly to accurately reflect current trading day patterns.

The trading day factors for Australian Total Retail Trade were estimated to be 1.03025 for December and 0.98015 for November. The impact of not adequately correcting for trading days would have increased the December 2004 seasonally adjusted estimate by approximately $240 million and decreased the November seasonally adjusted estimate by approximately $100 million. This in turn would have increased the November to December seasonally adjusted movement estimate by $340 million, or about 2% of the November seasonally adjusted estimate.

SAMPLING ERRORS

Standard errors for the Australian estimates (original data) for December 2004 contained in this publication are:

Data Series

Estimate

Standard error

Level of retail turnover ($m)

21,356.6

159.7

Change from preceding month ($m)

4,357.5

66.9

% change from preceding month (%)

25.6

0.4

For more information see the Explanatory Notes, paragraphs 32-36.

INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Graham Phillips on Canberra (02) 6252 5625.

INDUSTRY TRENDS

MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

TOTAL RETAIL

The Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services trend series has been in decline for four months. Household good retailing continued its moderate trend growth in December 2004 while all other industries were in decline.

FOOD RETAILING

The trend series has been in decline for four months. For this period New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia and the Northern Territory had no growth or were in decline.

DEPARTMENT STORES

The trend series has been in decline for four months. All published states and the Australian Capital Territory were in decline for this period.

CLOTHING AND SOFT GOOD RETAILING

The trend series has been in decline for four months. All states except Western Australia and the Australian Capital Territory were in decline for this period. Western Australia had weak growth in December while the Australian Capital Territory has had strong growth for six months.

HOUSEHOLD GOOD RETAILING

Trend growth has been moderate over the past six months after a period of weak growth from February 2004 to June 2004. Over the last six months, New South Wales and Victoria have had moderate to strong growth while the Northern Territory has been in decline.

RECREATIONAL GOOD RETAILING

The trend has been in decline for the last six months. During this six month period, Victoria and Queensland have been in decline while Western Australia has had strong growth. Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory have been in decline for the past four months.

OTHER RETAILING

The trend series has been in decline for four months. New South Wales and Victoria have been in decline for at least 12 months while Western Australia and South Australia have had strong growth for 14 months and four months respectively.

TOTAL RETAIL (EXCLUDING HOSPITALITY AND SERVICES)

Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services) was in decline in December 2004. Over the last three months, the rate of trend growth has been the same as that of Total industries (including Hospitality and services).

HOSPITALITY AND SERVICES

The trend has been in decline for the last seven months. New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia and Western Australia have been in decline for the last six months or longer. After four months of weak growth, Victoria had no growth for November and December 2004.

STATE TRENDS

MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

NEW SOUTH WALES

The trend estimate has been in decline for the last five months. Over this period, Department stores, Clothing and soft good retailing, Other retailing and Hospitality and services have been in decline.

VICTORIA

After seven months of weak trend growth, the trend has been in decline for three months. All industries except Household good retailing have had no growth or a decline in the last two months. Recreational good retailing and Other retailing have had a decline in the trend estimate for at least the last 11 months.

QUEENSLAND

The trend has been in decline for the last four months. All industries except Household good retailing have been in decline for at least two months. Hospitality and services has been in decline for 11 months. Household good retailing had no growth in December 2004 and weak growth for the previous six months.

SOUTH AUSTRALIA

The trend has been in decline for the last five months. Department stores, Clothing and soft good retailing and Hospitality and services have been in decline for at least five months. After moderate growth for at least three months, Food retailing and Household good retailing slowed to weak growth in December 2004. Other retailing has had strong growth over the last four months.

WESTERN AUSTRALIA

The rate of trend growth has been decreasing over the past six months with no growth for December 2004. Strong growth in recent months in Recreational good retailing and Other retailing has been offset by a decline in Food retailing, Department stores and Hospitality and services. Clothing and soft good retailing and Household good retailing had weak trend growth in December 2004.

TASMANIA

The trend has been in decline for the last four months. Food retailing has had 13 months of moderate trend growth, while Clothing and soft good retailing and Recreational good retailing have been in decline for four months.

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