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Let the hatin' continue -they underestimated Kentucky's cities last census and they can keep it up

I know it's off for Louisville because it's already at 1.3 million (that's their projected 2025 population ) and has recently been growing at 1.5% per year.

Lexington is on pace for 464,698 for 2010, 494,884 for 2015, 521,070 for 2020, 549,256 for 2025. .. and these numbers are assuming Madison County won't be readded to the metro when it breaks 100,000 in a few years (it was previously part of it but is now it's own micropolitian area).

Louisville is on pace for 1,294,910 for 2010, 1,361,377 for 2015, 1,427,845 for 2020, and 1,494,312 for 2025. That is way off their project of 1,364,000 for 2025.

I'm pretty sure they just took the census estimates for 2000 through 2005 and then pushed them out through 2025.

Not exactly scientific, just assuming that what they think happened from 2000 through 2005 will repeat itself for the following two decades. They slowed down ones in the Midwest and Northeast, and then grew others faster in the South and West.

No one has any idea what's going to happen. The census is well known for being WAY off on many of their estimates.

They were off by over 300,000 people when they estimated the 2000 population of the Chicago metro area.

They thought Cook County was going to lose population, and it grew by over 270,000 people, thought Chicago would stagnate, and it grew by over 110,000. That's a pretty big FAIL. Then of course after the official counts they immediatly started estimating that both the city and county would start losing population as they had estimated in the 1990's. Ironically things only started picking up much more after 2000 as far as gentrification, high-rise construction, crime dropping, jobs, etc.

Once you get this far away from the 2000 official count, the estimates can vary by large margins. I'm curious to see the results when they do the counts next year.

There are plenty of "NYC vs. some random city" threads in which posters from that "random city" projects their city to be either bigger than NYC, or NYC will be home to 3 people 2 cats, and Partridge in a pear tree.

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