Hurricane season 2016 began Wednesday and lasts through Nov. 30.We have already had Hurricane Alex in January and Tropical Storm Bonnie last weekend. The truth is, tropical weather can happen any time of the year; it is just more likely from June through November.Global forecast models are indicating the potential for a low in the Gulf of Mexico early next week. Water temperatures in the north Caribbean Sea and the south Gulf are warm, in the mid-80s.The weather system is far away, and subject to change. Models indicate that the low could move northeast over Florida. This is just something to monitor.Now is the time to get ready for whatever may happen during hurricane season. Prepare your home and consider where you would go should a hurricane move our way this season and how you would get there.Download the WDSU Hurricane Central appYou will need a disaster supply kit. Here are the basics: food, water, money, a flashlight, batteries, clothes, insurance papers, photos of home and belongings, medicine and prescriptions. Think of what you need if you cannot get back into your home for an extended time.Don't forget to get your insurance up to date. It's best to be prepared.The average hurricane season has 12 storms, six of which become hurricanes and three major hurricanes.NOAA's forecast is 10 to 16 storms this season, four to eight expected to become hurricanes and one to four becoming major hurricanes.There is uncertainty because El Niño is dying. El Niño is the warm water in the east tropical Pacific Ocean. It causes strong upper-level winds that can tear apart a tropical system in the Atlantic.La Niña is forecast to develop in 2016. It brings cool water to the east tropical Pacific and does not have a negative impact on tropical development in the Atlantic.The north tropical Atlantic is running cold. This may cause a stronger Atlantic high to develop. This is a good thing, because it can cause stronger trade winds, which in turn cause an upwelling of cooler waters in the main development region of the Atlantic.There is also a question about whether we are leaving the warm phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation, which began in 1995. This was an active period for hurricanes. The past three hurricane seasons have been less active. If we are entering the cool phase, it would be a good thing.That said, we have had very strong hurricanes in inactive years like Andrew in 1992, Camille in 1969 and Betsy in 1965.The truth is that the hurricane season forecast does not matter. If a hurricane hits you, it's a bad year. Just be prepared so we can all weather the storm.Keep up with local news, weather and current events with the WDSU app here.Sign up for our email newsletters to get breaking news right in your inbox. Click here to sign up!

NEW ORLEANS —

Hurricane season 2016 began Wednesday and lasts through Nov. 30.

We have already had Hurricane Alex in January and Tropical Storm Bonnie last weekend. The truth is, tropical weather can happen any time of the year; it is just more likely from June through November.

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Global forecast models are indicating the potential for a low in the Gulf of Mexico early next week. Water temperatures in the north Caribbean Sea and the south Gulf are warm, in the mid-80s.

The weather system is far away, and subject to change. Models indicate that the low could move northeast over Florida. This is just something to monitor.

Now is the time to get ready for whatever may happen during hurricane season. Prepare your home and consider where you would go should a hurricane move our way this season and how you would get there.

You will need a disaster supply kit. Here are the basics: food, water, money, a flashlight, batteries, clothes, insurance papers, photos of home and belongings, medicine and prescriptions. Think of what you need if you cannot get back into your home for an extended time.

Don't forget to get your insurance up to date. It's best to be prepared.

The average hurricane season has 12 storms, six of which become hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

NOAA's forecast is 10 to 16 storms this season, four to eight expected to become hurricanes and one to four becoming major hurricanes.

There is uncertainty because El Niño is dying. El Niño is the warm water in the east tropical Pacific Ocean. It causes strong upper-level winds that can tear apart a tropical system in the Atlantic.

La Niña is forecast to develop in 2016. It brings cool water to the east tropical Pacific and does not have a negative impact on tropical development in the Atlantic.

The north tropical Atlantic is running cold. This may cause a stronger Atlantic high to develop. This is a good thing, because it can cause stronger trade winds, which in turn cause an upwelling of cooler waters in the main development region of the Atlantic.

There is also a question about whether we are leaving the warm phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation, which began in 1995. This was an active period for hurricanes. The past three hurricane seasons have been less active. If we are entering the cool phase, it would be a good thing.

That said, we have had very strong hurricanes in inactive years like Andrew in 1992, Camille in 1969 and Betsy in 1965.

The truth is that the hurricane season forecast does not matter. If a hurricane hits you, it's a bad year. Just be prepared so we can all weather the storm.

Keep up with local news, weather and current events with the WDSU app here.