300.org - return atmosphere CO2 to 300 ppm

300.org
exists to inform people about the Climate Emergency and the need to reduce
atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2 ) concentration to a safe and
sustainable level of about 300 ppm.

The fundamental position of 300.org is that
“There must be a safe and sustainable existence for all peoples and all species
on our warming-threatened Planet and this requires a rapid reduction of
atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration to about 300 parts per million”. [1].

300.org
urges the World to reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration
(CO2) to about 300 parts per million by volume (ppm). In urging a target of an atmospheric CO2 concentration of 300
ppm, 300.org is informed by the advice of top world climate scientists as set
out below.

The World
is acutely threatened by man-made global warming due to profligate greenhouse
gas (GHG) pollution. The atmospheric CO2 concentration is currently 400 ppm CO2 and increasing at about 2 ppm annually. CO2 is a major GHG
but other GHGs include methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide
(N2O). The current atmospheric GHG concentration in units of
CO2-equivalent (CO2-e) and including methane and nitrogen
oxides is is about 480 ppm CO2-e. The average global surface temperature is now about
0.8oC above that in 1900. [2].

The consequences of man-made global warming
for ecosystems and species survival are already dire at an average
global surface temperature that is currently about 0.8oC above that
in 1900. Many
scientists now doubt that we can avoid further damaging temperature increases to
over 2 oC above that in 1900. Thus a poll by the UK Guardian of
scientists attending the March 2009 Copenhagen Climate Change Conference found
that 90% of respondents did not believe that current political efforts would
keep warming to less than 2 oC above that in 1900.

According
to top UK climate scientist
Dr James Lovelock FRS fewer than 1 billion people (evidently mostly European)
will survive the century due to First World
profligacy and unaddressed man-made climate change. [7].

This dire
estimate of Dr James Lovelock of fewer than 1 billion survivors this century
from unaddressed, man-made global warming translates to about 10 billion deaths
(mostly of non-Europeans and including 3 billion Muslims, 2 billion Indians) in
an already-commenced Climate Holocaust and Climate Genocide. [8].

300.org
agrees with the Climate Emergency perceptions and goals of the Melbourne-based
Yarra Valley Climate Action Group and specifically with what needs to be done.
[9].

1. Change
of societal philosophy to one of scientific risk management and biological
sustainability with complete cessation of species extinctions and zero tolerance
for lying.

2. Urgent
reduction of atmospheric CO2 to a safe level of about 300 ppm as
recommended by leading climate and biological
scientists.

3. Rapid
switch to the best non-carbon and renewable energy (solar, wind, geothermal,
wave, tide and hydro options that are currently roughly the same market price as
coal burning-based power) and to energy efficiency, public transport,
needs-based production, re-afforestation and return of carbon as biochar to
soils coupled with correspondingly rapid cessationof fossil fuel burning, deforestation,
methanogenic livestock production and population
growth.

Carbon Debt
reflects the inescapable future cost in today's dollars of fixing the
remorselessly increasing climate damage. Carbon Debt is the historical
contribution of countries to the carbon pollution of the atmosphere and
can be variously expressed as Gt CO2-e (gigatonnes or billions of tonnes of
CO2-equivalent) or in dollar terms by applying a Carbon Price. Thus leading
climate economist Dr Chris Hope from 90-Nobel-Laureate Cambridge
University has estimated a damage-related Carbon Price in US dollars of
$150 per tonne CO2-e (see Dr Chris Hope, “How high should climate change taxes
be?”, Working Paper Series, Judge Business School, University of Cambridge,
9.2011: http://www.jbs.cam.ac.uk/fileadmin/user_upload/research/workingpapers/wp1109.pdf
).

By way of a national example, Australia is a world-leading
annual per capita GHG polluter with a 1751-2006 Carbon Debt of 5.9 Gt C x
(3.67 Gt CO2-e/Gt C) x ($150 /t CO2-e) = $3.2 trillion plus a 2007-2015 Carbon
Debt of 2 Gt CO2-e/year x ($150 /t CO2-e) x 8 years = $2.4
trillion i.e. a total 1751-2015 Carbon Debt of $5.6 trillion (A$7.2 trillion) that
is increasing at 2 Gt CO2-e /year x ($150 /t CO2-e) = $300 billion (A$385
billion) per year. Thus Australia
(population 24 million) with 0.34% of the world's population has 2.1% of the
world's Carbon Debt. The Australian Carbon Debt will have to be paid by the
young and future generations and for under-30 year old Australians is
increasing at about $30,000 (A$38,500) per person per year, noting that the
annual Australian per capita income is about $65,000 (A$83,000) (see Gideon Polya, “2015 A-to-Z
alphabetical list of actions and advocacies for climate change activists”,
Countercurrents,14
January, 2015: http://www.countercurrents.org/polya140115.htm
).

Numerous expert opinions advocating a return of the atmosphere to about 300 ppm CO2 ASAP:

Inspired by
the position of Dr Hansen (head, NASA GISS) that “CO2 will need to be
reduced from its current 385 ppm to at most 350 ppm” [10] the world-wide 350.org
organization has the excellent position of urging a return of the atmospheric
CO2 concentration to 350 ppm or less and indeed is organizing an
extremely important world-wide day of action on 24 October 2009 to publicize
this position. [11].

The
Australian national Climate Action Summit in Canberra (January 2009) involved
over 140 community action groups and endorsed a key aim for stabilisation at 300
ppm CO2 in the atmosphere and strong international agreement in line
with what science and global justice demands. [12].

The name
300.org reflects support for the implicit 350.org goal of less than 350 ppm
CO2 (although, as detailed below, a goal of "350 ppm" is clearly inadequate according to top climate scientists) and the goal of about 300 ppm CO2 of the 2009 Australian
Climate Action Summit [12], the Australian Climate Emergency Network [13] and the
Yarra Valley Climate Action Group [14].

Just as we
turn to top medical specialists for advice on life-threatening disease, so we
turn to the opinions of top scientists and in particular top biological and
climate scientists for Climate Change risk assessment and Climate Emergency
facts and requisite actions. Below are quotations from leading climate
scientists and biological scientists supporting the need for an atmospheric
CO2 concentration in the range 300-350 ppm i.e. after “rounding down” and applying the “precautionary principle” of the lower safe
limit, an atmospheric CO2 concentration of about 300
ppm (the upper limit for the last 600,000 years except for the last half century or so).

1. Dr James Hansen
(top US climate scientist; Director, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies;
member of the prestigious US National Academy of Sciences; 2007 Award for
Scientific Freedom and Responsibility of the prestigious American Association
for the Advancement of Science; Adjunct Professor, Columbia University, New
York, USA). [15].

(a) With 8
UK, French and US
climate change scientist co-authors (2008): “Paleoclimate data show that
climate sensitivity is ~3 deg-C for doubled CO2 [carbon dioxide;
atmospheric CO2 280 ppm pre-industrial], including only fast feedback
processes. Equilibrium sensitivity, including slower surface albedo feedbacks,
is ~6 deg-C for doubled CO2 for the range of climate states between
glacial conditions and ice-free Antarctica.
Decreasing CO2 was the main cause of a cooling trend that began 50
million years ago, large scale glaciation occurring when CO2 fell to
450 +/- 100 ppm [parts per million], a level that will be exceeded within
decades, barring prompt policy changes. If humanity wishes to preserve a planet
similar to that on which civilization developed and to which life on Earth is
adapted, paleoclimate evidence and ongoing climate change suggest that
CO2 will need to be reduced from its current 385 ppm to at most 350
ppm. The largest uncertainty in the target arises from possible changes of
non-CO2 forcings. An initial 350 ppm CO2 target may be
achievable by phasing out coal use except where CO2 is captured and
adopting agricultural and forestry practices that sequester carbon. If the
present overshoot of this target CO2 is not brief, there is a
possibility of seeding irreversible catastrophic effects.” [10].

(b) In relation to the recent book “Climate Code Red. The case for emergency
action” by David Spratt and Philip Sutton (Scribe, Melbourne, 2008): “A
compelling case … we face a climate emergency.” [16].

(c) 2007
(Hansen, J., Mki. Sato, P. Kharecha, G. Russell, D.W. Lea, and M. Siddall, 2007:
Climate change and trace gases. Phil.
Trans. Royal. Soc. A, 365, 1925-1954): “Paleoclimate data show
that the Earth's climate is remarkably sensitive to global forcings. Positive
feedbacks predominate. This allows the entire planet to be whipsawed between
climate states. One feedback, the "albedo flip" property of water substance,
provides a powerful trigger mechanism. A climate forcing that "flips" the albedo
of a sufficient portion of an ice sheet can spark a cataclysm. Ice sheet and
ocean inertia provides only moderate delay to ice sheet disintegration and a
burst of added global warming. Recent greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions place the
Earth perilously close to dramatic climate change that could run out of our
control, with great dangers for humans and other creatures. Carbon dioxide
(CO2) is the largest human-made climate forcing, but other trace
constituents are important. Only intense simultaneous efforts to slow
CO2 emissions and reduce non-CO2 forcings can keep climate
within or near the range of the past million years. The most important of the
non-CO2 forcings is methane (CH4), as it causes the 2nd
largest human-made GHG climate forcing and is the principal cause of increased
tropospheric ozone (O3), which is the 3rd largest GHG forcing.
Nitrous oxide (N2O) should also be a focus of climate mitigation
efforts. Black carbon ("black soot") has a high global warming potential (~2000,
500, and 200 for 20, 100 and 500 years, respectively) and deserves greater
attention. Some forcings are especially effective at high latitudes, so
concerted efforts to reduce their emissions could still "save the Arctic", while also having major benefits for human
health, agricultural productivity, and the global environment.”
[17].

(d) 2008,
in an address to the US National Press Club and a briefing to the US House
Select Committee on Energy Independence & Global Warming Congressional
Committee: “CEOs of fossil energy companies know what they are doing and are
aware of long-term consequences of business as usual. In my opinion, these CEOs
should be tried for high crimes against humanity and nature.”
[18].

(e) Dr
James Hansen et al. (2008): “Stabilization of Arctic sea ice cover requires, to
first approximation, restoration of planetary energy balance. Climate models
driven by known forcings yield a present planetary energy imbalance of +0.5-1
W/m2. Observed heat increase in the upper 700 m of the ocean confirms the
planetary energy imbalance, but observations of the entire ocean are needed for
quantification. CO2 amount must be reduced to 325-355 ppm to increase
outgoing flux 0.5-1 W/m2, if other forcings are unchanged. A further imbalance
reduction, and thus CO2 ~300-325 ppm, may be needed to restore sea
ice to its area of 25 years ago.” [19].

2. Dr Andrew Glikson (an Earth and paleo-climate
research scientist at Australian National University, Canberra, Australia)
(2009): “For some time
now, climate scientists warned that melting of subpolar permafrost and warming
of the Arctic Sea (up to 4 degrees C during 2005–2008 relative to the 1951–1980)
are likely to result in the dissociation of methane hydrates and the release of
this powerful greenhouse gas into the atmosphere (methane: 62 times the infrared
warming effect of CO2 over 20 years and 21 times over 100 years) …
The amount of carbon stored in Arctic sediments and permafrost is estimated as
500–2500 Gigaton Carbon (GtC), as compared with the world’s total fossil fuel
reserves estimated as 5000 GtC. Compare with the 700 GtC of the atmosphere,
which regulate CO2 levels in the range of 180–300 parts per million
and land temperatures in a range of about – 50 to + 50 degrees C, which allowed
the evolution of warm blooded mammals. The continuing use of the atmosphere as
an open sewer for industrial pollution has already added some 305 GtC to the
atmosphere together with land clearing and animal-emitted methane. This raised
CO2 levels to 387 ppm CO2 to date, leading toward
conditions which existed on Earth about 3 million years (Ma) ago (mid-Pliocene),
when CO2 levels rose to about 400 ppm, temperatures to about 2–3
degrees C and sea levels by about 25 +/- 12 metres. There is little evidence for
an extinction at 3 Ma. However, by crossing above a CO2 level of 400
ppm the atmosphere is moving into uncharted territory. At this stage, enhanced
methane leaks threaten climate events, such as the massive methane release and
fauna extinction of 55 million years ago, which was marked by rise of
CO2 to near-1000 ppm.” [20].

3. Professor Hans Joachim
Schellnhuber, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate
Impact Research., Germany (2008): “"It is a compromise
between ambition and feasibility. A rise of 2oC could avoid some of
the big environmental disasters, but it is still only a compromise…It is a very
sweeping argument, but nobody can say for sure that 330ppm is safe. Perhaps it
will not matter whether we have 270ppm or 320ppm, but operating well outside the
[historic] realm of carbon dioxide concentrations is risky as long as we have
not fully understood the relevant feedback mechanisms" [280 ppm is the
pre-industrial atmospheric CO2 concentration]. [22].

4. Part of a
statement prepared by Dr Barrie
Pittock PSM (former leader, Climate Impact Group, CSIRO, IPCC Lead
Author, and author of Climate Change: Turning Up the Heat), and Dr Andrew Glikson (Earth and paleoclimate
research scientist, former Principal Research Scientist, AGSO; Visiting Fellow,
Australian National University), and endorsed
by 40 leading Australian environment scientists: “Australia to make
every effort through its own and international actions to prevent CO2 --
equivalent levels from rising above 450 ppm and global warming from rising above
2 degrees C relative to pre-industrial temperatures, as is the European target.
Further reduction of CO2 levels to 300-350 ppm may be required to
have a reasonable probability of restoring a safe climate.” [23].

5. Professor Barry Brook (Sir Hubert Wilkins chair of climate change
and director of climate science at the University of Adelaide's
Environment Institute): “If the planet is like an
oven, it's still possible to turn down the temperature.The
number is 300 and the methods will be extraordinary. In 2007, a climate
awareness campaign was launched by well-known environmental author Bill
McKibben. It was coined 350.org, with the slogan "350 is the most
important number on the planet". The figure refers to a target
concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the Earth's atmosphere, in parts per
million (ppm). This number was drawn from a recent study by a team of climate
scientists, led by NASA's Dr James Hansen ... But there is another, more
surprising, problem with 350. It's the wrong number. While 350 ppm should give
us a reasonable shot at avoiding more than two degrees of warming, that's
hardly a safe future to be aiming for. We need only to look at the impacts at
less than one degree to know we're already committed to some tough adaptation
problems …A target of 300 to 325 ppm CO2 - the levels of the
1950s - is necessary if we wish to cut additional warming and start to roll
back the already damaging impacts. As such, 350 is not a target, it's a
signpost to a goal. So we're aiming at 350 but the real goal is 300 and we're
already at 385”. [24, 25].

6. Australia's premier research organization, the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO), “The Science of Climate
Change” (see: http://www.csiro.au/files/files/poqu.pdf
), 2008 : “Since the Industrial Revolution, the CO2 concentrations have risen 37%,
methane 150% and nitrous oxide 18%. The global increases in CO2 concentration
are due primarily to fossil fuel use and land-use change, while the increases in
methane and nitrous oxide are primarily due to agriculture. The CO2
concentration in 2008 of 383 parts per million (ppm) is much higher than the
natural range of 172 to 300 ppm that existed over the last 800,000 years.” [26].

8. Statement by the technical working
group on coral, The Royal Society on 6th July 2009: "The Earth’s
atmospheric CO2 level must be returned to less than 350ppm to
reverse this escalating ecological crisis and to 320ppm to ensure permanent
planetary health. Actions to achieve this must be taken urgently.
The commonly mooted best case target of 450ppm and a time frame reaching to
2050 will plunge the Earth into an environmental state that has not occurred in
millions of years and from which there will be no recovery for coral reefs and
for many other natural systems on which humanity depends. Working group
signatories Professor John Veron (Coral Reef Research), Dr Mary Stafford-Smith
(Coral Reef Research),Prof. Ove Hoegh-Guldberg (University of Queensland)
[and 20 other eminent scientists]". [28].

9. Statement by the World's top climate scientists including Professors James Hansen
(US), Hans Joachim Schellnhuber (Germany) , Paul Crutzen (Netherlands
Nobel Laureate), in the top scientifc journal Nature that atmospheric CO2 must NOT exceed 350 ppm (September 2009): "Our proposed climate boundary is based on two critical thresholds that
separate qualitatively different climate-system states. It has two
parameters: atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and radiative
forcing (the rate of energy change per unit area of the globe as
measured at the top of the atmosphere). We propose that human changes
to atmospheric CO2 concentrations should not exceed 350
parts per million by volume, and that radiative forcing should not
exceed 1 watt per square metre above pre-industrial levels.
Transgressing these boundaries will increase the risk of irreversible
climate change, such as the loss of major ice sheets, accelerated
sea-level rise and abrupt shifts in forest and agricultural systems.
Current CO2 concentration stands at 387 p.p.m.v. and the change in radiative forcing is 1.5 W m-2 . " [29].

11. Sir Nicholas Stern (top climate economist, IG Patel
Professor of Economics and Government at the London School of Economics, former
Chief Economist and Senior Vice-President of the World Bank from 2000 to 2003)
(September 2009): “[Re 350 ppm CO2] I think it’s a very sensible long-term target…People have
to be aware that is a truly long-term target. We have already passed 350ppm, we
are at 390 ppm of CO2 and at 435 ppm of CO2-equivalents right now. It is most
important to stop the increase of flows of emissions short term and then start
the decline of flows of annual emissions and get them down to levels which will
move concentrations of CO2 back down towards 350ppm.” [31].

12. Samuel Fankhauser (economist and climate change specialist at
the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London
School of Economics; member of the UK Committee on Climate Change, a government
watchdog that monitors UK climate change policy; former Deputy Chief Economist
at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD); served on the
1995, 2001 and 2007 assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC)) (2009), was reported by IPS thus: “A future global climate change treaty must
limit the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to 350 parts per
million (ppm), and not 450 ppm, the currently proposed level, Samuel Fankhauser
told a meeting of pro-environment legislators from the eight most
industrialised countries and emerging economies here. But they felt the goal
was not feasible.A British economist and
researcher on climate change, Fankhauser said the limit he is urging is the
only way to avoid the irreversible bleaching of coral in coastal areas, with
all that this implies for people's livelihoods and the environment.”.

Dr Fankhauser was directly quoted thus : “"Action
against climate change might cost up to three percent of the world's GDP during
the next 40 years," Fankhauser told IPS. "But this price is still
cheaper than doing nothing about it…The global climate change sector is already
booming. Revenues generated by measures against climate change have surpassed
500 billion dollars in 2008, and could be worth some two trillion dollars by
2020…[500 million people] live within 100 kilometres of reef ecosystems, and
benefit from these services…Another important service provided by coral reefs
and healthy seashore ecosystems is climate regulation and coastal protection,
through carbon sequestration, waste treatment, and protection against
hurricanes and the like.” [32].

13. J.E.N. Veron,O. Hoegh-Guldberg, T.M. Lenton, J.M. Lough, D.O. Obura, P.
Pearce-Kelly, C.R.C. Sheppard, M. Spalding, M.G. Stafford-Smithand
A.D. Rogers (top coral scientists), “The coral reef crisis: the critical importance of <350 ppm CO2”,
Marine Pollution Bulletin, October 2009: “Temperature-induced
mass coral bleaching causing mortality on a wide geographic scale started when
atmospheric CO2 levels exceeded 320 ppm.
When CO2 levels reached 340 ppm,
sporadic but highly destructive mass bleaching occurred in most reefs
world-wide, often associated with El Niño events. Recovery was dependent on the
vulnerability of individual reef areas and on the reef’s previous history and
resilience. At today’s level of 387 ppm,
allowing a lag-time of 10 years for sea temperatures to respond, most
reefs world-wide are committed to an irreversible decline. Mass bleaching will
in future become annual, departing from the 4 to 7 years return-time of El
Niño events. Bleaching will be exacerbated by the effects of degraded
water-quality and increased severe weather events. In addition, the progressive
onset of ocean acidification will cause reduction of coral growth and
retardation of the growth of high magnesium calcite-secreting coralline algae.” [33].

14. The president of the Maldive
Islands, Mohammed Nasheed, and the Maldive Islands government (at an underwater Cabinet meeting),
Resolution, October 2009: “With less than one degree of global warming, the
glaciers are melting, the ice sheets collapsing, and low-lying areas are in
danger of being swamped. We must unite in a global effort to halt further
temperature rises, by slashing carbon dioxide emissions to a safe level of 350
parts per million.’’ [33].

15.Bill McKibben (founder, 350.org, that espouses 24 October, UN Day, as also
350 Day for international action of global warming), 23 October 2009: “Physics
and chemistry have already announced their bottom line. In the last two years a
slew of research has shown that the most carbon we can safely have in the
atmosphere is 350 parts per million - indeed, a NASA team said that above that
figure we can’t have “a planet similar to the one on which civilization
developed or to which life on earth is adapted.’’ We’re already well past the
350 figure, at 390 parts per million, which is why Arctic sea ice is melting,
glaciers thawing, and the ocean turning steadily more acidic. To meet the 350
goal will mean a far more aggressive approach than the one Obama and Congress
have so far taken (the bill making its way through Congress explicitly aims for
a world with 450 parts per million carbon).” [34].

Top climate scientists and the
prestigious UK Royal Society say we must DECREASE atmospheric CO2 concentration
from the present 390 ppm to 300-350 ppm ASAP for a safe planet for all peoples
and all species. [1a, 2a].

Unfortunately, world governments and the pro-coal Australian
Liberal-National Party Coalition Opposition and the pro-coal Australian Labor
Federal Government (aka the Lib-Labs) want to INCREASE CO2 and other greenhouse
gas (GHG) pollution. [3a].

Australia
is a world leader in per capita GHG pollution – having 0.3% of world
population, its domestic and exported GHG pollution is 3% of world total. Yet
optimistic interpretation of official Labor policy indicates that Australia’s
domestic and exported GHG pollution will be 119% of the 2000 value by 2020 and
173% by 2050. [4a].

The science-ignoring Australian Lib-Labs (US Rep-Dems) are betraying our
children, the Great Barrier Reef, Australia, Humanity and the
Biosphere of the Planet. Children should demand that their elders behave
responsibly before it is too late and First World-imposed climate genocide
destroys 10 billion non-Europeans this century, mostly children.". [5a, 35].

17. Catherine Brahic, New Scientist
(2007): “Ice
cores show that carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere have remained between
180 and 300 parts per million for the past half-a-million years. In recent
centuries, however, CO2 levels have risen sharply, to at least 380
ppm [2007; 394 ppm in 2011]… So what's going on? It is true that human
emissions of CO2 are small compared with natural sources. But the
fact that CO2 levels have remained steady until very recently shows
that natural emissions are usually balanced by natural absorptions. Now
slightly more CO2 must be entering the atmosphere than is being
soaked up by carbon "sinks". The consumption of terrestrial
vegetation by animals and by microbes (rotting, in other words) emits about 220
gigatonnes of CO2 every year, while respiration by vegetation emits
another 220 Gt. These huge amounts are balanced by the 440 Gt of carbon dioxide
absorbed from the atmosphere each year as land plants photosynthesise. Similarly,
parts of the oceans release about 330 Gt of CO2 per year, depending
on temperature and rates of photosynthesis by phytoplankton, but other parts
usually soak up just as much - and are now soaking up slightly more…Human
emissions of CO2 are now estimated to be 26.4 Gt per year, up from
23.5 Gt in the 1990s, according to the IPCC …Disturbances to the land - through
deforestation and agriculture, for instance - also contribute roughly 5.9 Gt
per year…Measurements of CO2 levels over the past 50 years do not
show any significant rises after eruptions. Total emissions from volcanoes on
land are estimated to average just 0.3 Gt of CO2 each year.” [36].

19. Joan Russow PhD (Global Compliance Research Project) and Cory Morningstar (Canadians for Action on Climate) (2010): "Before COP15, during COP15 and POST COP15, there has been a global
350.org campaign. At COP15, states such as Bolivia, and the ALBA group,
and some scientists and activists were calling for parts per million
(ppm) of carbon dioxide to return to 300 ppm. When people from the
350.org campaign were asked why they did not respond to the lower
demands, their response was ‘350.org is our campaign’. However, more and more leading climate activists and leading world
scientists are advocating the necessity of returning to 300 ppm." [38].

20. US Department
of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) (10 May 2013):
“On May 9, the daily mean concentration of carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere of Mauna Loa, Hawaii, surpassed 400 parts per million (ppm) for the
first time since measurements began in 1958. Independent measurements made by
both NOAA and the Scripps Institution of Oceanography have been approaching
this level during the past week… Before the Industrial Revolution in the 19th
century, global average CO2 was about 280 ppm. During the last 800,000 years,
CO2 fluctuated between about 180 ppm during ice ages and 280 ppm during
interglacial warm periods. Today’s rate of increase is more than 100 times
faster than the increase that occurred when the last ice age ended… The
increase in the Northern Hemisphere is always a little ahead of the Southern
Hemisphere because most of the emissions driving the CO2 increase take place in
the north. Once emitted, CO2 added to the atmosphere and oceans remains for
thousands of years. Thus, climate changes forced by CO2 depend primarily on
cumulative emissions, making it progressively more and more difficult to avoid
further substantial climate change.” [39].

21. James
Hansen, Pushker Kharecha, Makiko
Sato, Valerie Masson-Delmotte, Frank Ackerman, David J. Beerling, Paul J.
Hearty, Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, Shi-Ling Hsu, Camille Parmesan, Johan Rockstrom,
Eelco J. Rohling, Jeffrey Sachs, Pete Smith, Konrad
Steffen, Lise Van Susteren, Karina von Schuckmann, James
C. Zachos (2013): "Earth’s energy imbalance is the most vital number characterizing the
state of Earth’s climate. It informs us about the global temperature
change “in the pipeline” without further change of climate forcings and
it defines how much greenhouse gases must be reduced to restore Earth’s
energy balance, which, at least to a good approximation, must be the
requirement for stabilizing global climate. The measured energy
imbalance accounts for all natural and human-made climate forcings,
including changes of atmospheric aerosols and Earth’s surface albedo.

If Earth’s mean energy imbalance today is +0.5 W/m2, CO2
must be reduced from the current level of 395 ppm (global-mean
annual-mean in mid-2013) to about 360 ppm to increase Earth’s heat
radiation to space by 0.5 W/m2 and restore energy balance. If Earth’s energy imbalance is 0.75 W/m2, CO2 must be reduced to about 345 ppm to restore energy balance [64], [75].

The measured energy imbalance indicates that an initial CO2
target “<350 ppm” would be appropriate, if the aim is to stabilize
climate without further global warming. That target is consistent with
an earlier analysis [54].
Additional support for that target is provided by our analyses of
ongoing climate change and paleoclimate, in later parts of our paper.
Specification now of a CO2 target more precise than <350
ppm is difficult and unnecessary, because of uncertain future changes of
forcings including other gases, aerosols and surface albedo. More
precise assessments will become available during the time that it takes
to turn around CO2 growth and approach the initial 350 ppm target." [40].

21. Thomas Sumner in Science Now (AAAS) on the slow collapse of
the West Antarctic ice sheet (2014): “A disaster may be unfolding—in slow motion. Earlier
this week, two teams of scientists reported that the Thwaites Glacier, a
keystone holding the massive West Antarctic Ice Sheet together, is starting to
collapse. In the long run, they say, the entire ice sheet is doomed, which
would release enough meltwater to raise sea levels by more than 3 meters. One
team combined data on the recent retreat of the 182,000-square-kilometer
Thwaites Glacier with a model of the glacier’s dynamics to forecast its future.
In
a paper published online today in Science, they report that in as
few as 2 centuries Thwaites Glacier’s outermost edge will recede past an
underwater ridge now stalling its retreat. Their modeling suggests that the
glacier will then cascade into rapid collapse. The second team, writing in Geophysical Research Letters (GRL),
describes recent radar mapping of West Antarctica’s
glaciers and confirms that the 600-meter-deep ridge is the final obstacle
before the bedrock underlying the glacier dips into a deep basin. Because
inland basins connect Thwaites Glacier to other major glaciers in the region,
both research teams say its collapse would flood West
Antarctica with seawater, prompting a near-complete loss of ice in
the area... Core samples drilled into the inland basins that connect Thwaites
Glacier with its neighbors have revealed algae preserved beneath the ice sheet,
a hint that seawater has filled the basins within the past 750,000 years. That
past flooding shows that modest climate warming can cause the entire ice sheet
to collapse.”
[41].

22. Dr Eric Rignot, a glaciologist at NASA's Jet
Propulsion Laboratory and lead author of a 2014 landmark scientific
paper on West Antarctica revealing that the collapse of a large part of Antarctica is now unstoppable (2014): “Controlling climate warming may ultimately make a difference not only
about how fast West Antarctic ice will melt to sea, but also whether other
parts of Antarctica will take their turn.
Several "candidates" are lined up, and we seem to have figured a way
to push them out of equilibrium even before warming of air temperature is
strong enough to melt snow and ice at the surface. Unabated climate warming of
several degrees over the next century is likely to speed up the collapse of
West Antarctica, but it could also trigger irreversible retreat of marine-based
sectors of East Antarctica. Whether we should
do something about it is simply a matter of common sense. And the time to act
is now; Antarctica is not waiting for us.”
[42; see also 41, 43, 44, 45].

23.Dr Ian Joughin, a glaciologist at the
University of Washington (UW), Seattle, Washinton,
USA, and lead author of a key paper on the West
Antarctica ice sheet collapse, of which the early-stage collapse is already
underway (2014): “Abstract. Resting atop a deep marine basin, the
West Antarctic Ice Sheet has long been considered prone to instability. Using a
numerical model, we investigated the sensitivity of Thwaites Glacier to ocean
melt and whether its unstable retreat is already under way. Our model
reproduces observed losses when forced with ocean melt comparable to estimates.
Simulated losses are moderate (<0.25 mm per year at sea level) over the 21st
century but generally increase thereafter. Except possibly for the lowest-melt
scenario, the simulations indicate that early-stage collapse has begun. Less
certain is the time scale, with the onset of rapid (>1 mm per year of
sea-level rise) collapse in the different simulations within the range of 200
to 900 years.” [44].

24.Dr Richard Alley, a glaciologist at
Pennsylvania State
University, University Park, Pennsylvania,
USA,
on the reported slow-motion collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet (2014):
“Very crudely, we are now committed to global sea level rise equivalent to a
permanent [2012] Hurricane Sandy storm surge… The possibility that we have
already committed to 3 or more meters of sea level rise from West
Antarctica will be disquieting to many people, even if the rise waits
centuries before arriving.” [45].

President of the Global Coral Reef Alliance, an
international NGO for restoration of coral reefs, and a member of the Jamaican delegation
to UNCCC; previously Senior Scientific
Affairs Officer at the United Nations Centre for Science and Technology for
Development, in charge of Global Climate Change and Biodiversity issues, where
he contributed to the original draft of the UN Framework Convention on Climate
Change ): “Summary. The long-term sea level that corresponds to
current CO2 concentration is about 23 meters above today’s levels, and the
temperatures will be 6 degrees C higher. These estimates are based on real, long
term climate records, not on models. We have not yet felt the real impacts of
the current excess of greenhouse gases produced by fossil fuels, and the data
shows that they will in the long run be many times higher than IPCC models
project. In order to prevent these long term changes, CO2 must be stabilized at
levels below preindustrial levels, around 260 parts per million. CO2 build up
must be reversed,not allowed to
increase or even to be stabilized at 350 ppm, which would amount to a death
sentence for coral reefs, small island developing states,and billions of people living along low lying
coast lines. The good news is that all tools for reversing global warming and
reducing CO2 to safe levels are ready, proven, and cost effective, but are not
being seriously used due to lack of polices and funding...

Current “targets” for CO2 being
discussed by UNCCC are way too high to prevent the extinction of coral reefs
(which can take no further warming, since most corals have died in the last 20 years
from heat shock) and the disappearance of all low lying islands and coastlines
where billions of people live. Even a target of 350 ppm is UNACCEPTABLE if we
are to avoid dangerous interference with the Earth climate system, causing inconceivable
ecological, environmental, and economic disaster. Global warming must not be
allowed to continue as would happen by stabilizing CO2 and temperature at present
levels. Greenhouse gas buildup MUST BE REVERSED, and CO2 reduced to levels of
around 260 ppm, below Pre-Industrial levels. The technologies to do so are proven,
cost effective, and capable of being rapidly ramped up, but are not being used
on the scale needed due to lack of serious policies and funding to reverse
global warming and stabilize the climate system at safe levels. THAT IS WHAT
AOSIS AND UNCCC MUST ACCOMPLISH IF WE ARE TO PRESERVE OUR PLANETʼS LIFE SUPPORT
SYSTEMS FOR FUTURE GENERATIONS. The solutions are already in hand. Letʼs all
get serious and stop stealing our childrenʼs
future!” ” [46].

26. “Target 300” (that
advocates a return to 300 ppm CO2 ASAP): “James Hansen, is the director of
the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Adjunct Professor at the
Columbia University Earth Institute. He is one of the worlds leading climate
scientists. Hansen has recently released a paper titled "Target Atmospheric
CO2: Where Should Humanity Aim?" In this paper he concludes that we need
to return atmospheric concentrations to between 300-325 ppm CO2 to re-establish
summer sea ice in the North Pole. The North Pole summer sea ice is just one of
a number of critical climate systems that are needed to maintain a stable safe
climate. Without it, other systems, including the Greenland
ice mass and the frozen methane trapped in Arctic permafrost, will respond to
global warming and add greatly to the problem by creating destructive sea level
rise and massive release of additional greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. We
don't know exactly where safe CO2 levels lie within the 300-325 ppm CO2 range
so if we wish to avoid a climate catastrophe, we must aim for 300 ppm CO2 or below.
Hansen has said we have at most decades to return our atmospheric greenhouse
gas levels to safe levels.” [47].

27.David Spratt on the website called “Climate Code Red” (the title of a
key book by David Spratt and Phillip Sutton) (2009): “The central point is that Arctic sea-ice
is undergoing dramatic loss in summer, having lost 70-80% of its volume in the
last 50 years, most since 2000. Without summer sea-ice, Greenland
cannot escape a trajectory of ice-sheet loss leading to an eventual sea-level
rise of 7 metres. Regional temperatures in the Arctic autumn are already up
about 5C, and by mid-century an Arctic ice-free in summer, combined with more
global warming, will be pushing Siberia close to the point where large-scale
loss of carbon from melting permafrost would make further mitigation efforts
futile. As Hansen told the US Congress in testimony
last year, the “elements of a perfect storm, a global cataclysm, are
assembled”. In short, if you don’t have a target
that aims to cool the planet sufficiently to get the sea-ice back, the climate
system may spiral out of control, past many “tipping points” to the final
“point of no return”.And that target is not 350ppm, it’s
around 300 ppm. Hansen says Arctic sea-ice passed its tipping point decades
ago, and in his presentations has also specifically identified 300-325ppm as
the target range for sea-ice". [48].

28. Only Zero Carbon:
“This is a website venture to make the imperative of aiming to get the global
emission of carbon dioxide to zero, general knowledge and at the very least on
the table of the UN negotiations for a new climate treaty… The science is
definite that only by stopping adding carbon to the atmosphere, can the increase
in the global temperature and ocean acidification stop. The IPCC has stated the
fact clearly in the 2007 climate change assessment. Only zero carbon makes
all the carbon dioxide science, the mitigation measures, the economics and
politics so simple. All you really have to know is that only zero CO2 emissions
is the only CO2 target there is. If we do not aim for a zero carbon world we
will have no world. We hear of low carbon but how low is low to escape global
climate catastrophe? We hardly ever hear of no carbon, and zero carbon emissions
is not on the climate change mitigation agenda. The 2C target is certain global
climate planetary catastrophe. ​​IC [editor: circa 300 ppm CO2] is the danger
limit and we can achieve the 1C limit, but only with emergency drastic action
starting now.​​” [49].

30. Dr. Peter Carter (a
retired physician and environmental health research analyst from Canada)
on the importance of the Bolivian climate change position [1C increase maximum;
redcued CO2 to 300 ppm CO2]: “Why the Bolivian government 1ºC climate change
position is the only position for the survival of the Global South and for the
food security of the entire world…The Bolivian
climate change position:

The global average
temperature increase of the surface of planet Earth must be limited to
1°C.

Industrialized
nations must stop emitting carbon. This means a total redevelopment to convert
to clean, perpetual and zero carbon energy for all people. What a wonderful
idea!

The industrialized
nations must extract “billions of tons” of carbon dioxide directly from the air.
The fact is that climate change science has totally established that only zero
carbon emissions, supplemented by the extraction of carbon dioxide directly from
the atmosphere, can lead to the reduction of today’s catastrophically high level
of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere (390 ppm) and stop it from increasing
further. This is the best kept secret of the industrialized nations, because it
is a scientific fact that has been known for many years yet
ignored.

The most
important numbers in the world are 1°C and 0 carbon emissions. Without zero
carbon emissions, no other numbers can happen, except higher and higher numbers,
leading inevitably to climate catastrophe.” [51].

[31]. Ben
Courtice ( member of Australia’s Socialist Alliance) on the
World People’s Conference on Climate Change and the Rights of Mother Earth,
Cochabamba, Bolivia (2010): “The conference calls for the
world to adopt a target of maximum 1 degree warming, and therefore to aim for
300 ppm CO2 in the atmosphere. To this end the conference called for rich
nations to adopt targets of 50% emissions reductions (based on 1990 emissions)
by 2017. These are demands being taken to the next international conference in
Cancun. These are also the most radical demands
being pushed by any of the climate movement in the West, such as the Climate
Emergency Network here in Australia..” [52].

[46]. Dr T. Goreau, “What is the right target for CO2? 350 ppm
is a death sentence for coral reefs and low lying islands, the safe levelfor SIDS [Small Island Developing States] is
around 260 parts per million [ppm]”, scientific and technical briefing to the
Association of Small Island States, UN Climate Change Conference, Copenhagen,
Denmark, December 7-18, 2009: http://www.globalcoral.org/wpcontent/uploads/2014/01/aosis_briefing_2009.pdf.

[51]. Peter Carter, “Why the Bolivian
government 1ºC climate change position is the only position for the survival of
the Global South and for the food security of the entire
world”, Wrong Kind of Green: http://wrongkindofgreen.org/tag/300-ppm/