New England is coming off a 49-19 Thanksgiving win over the N.Y. Jets last week. The Patriots are averaging 47.5 points per game in their last four games and 37 points per game on the season, tops in the NFL. They will have no trouble scoring in the 40s again this week against the Dolphins defense which is giving up 261.7 passing yards per game, 27th in the league.

Miami should be able to move the ball against the Patriots pass defense, who rank 29th against the pass.

New England is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Miami.

In their last four meetings, the Over is 4-0.

Gimme the Patriots minus the points and the Over.

Jacksonville at Buffalo (-6)

The Jaguars got their second win of the year last week, defeating the Tennessee Titans 24-19. The team has shown signs of life ever since quarterback ChadHenne took over in Week 11. In their last two games, Henne has averaged 307.5 yards passing and has six touchdowns and one interception. During that span, rookie wide receiver JustinBlackmon has 298 yards and two touchdowns versus 250 yards and one touchdown in his first nine games of the season under quarterback BlaineGabbert. In 10 games this season, Gabbert threw for over 300 yards only once. In their last three games, wide receiver CecilShorts is averaging 97 yards per game and has scored a touchdown in each game. Look for the Jaguars offense to continue to roll this week against the Bills defense which is giving up 29 points per game, 30th in the NFL. I'm surprised to see the Bills favored by so much for a team that has quarterback issues of their own and has lost four of their last five games.

Gimme the Jaguars plus the points.

Games

Tampa Bay at Denver (O/U 50)

PeytonManning faces a Buccaneers pass defense which ranks dead last in the league against the pass, allowing 315.5 yards per game. The Broncos offense is averaging almost 29 points per game and should have no problem putting up at least another 30 points against Tampa this week. Tampa Bay's offense has flourished under new additions VincentJackson and DougMartin. They are averaging 28.2 points per game, good for 4th in the league.

Gimme the Over.

Houston at Tennessee (+6)

After losing to Jacksonville last week, the Titans fired offensive coordinator Chris Palmer. The team ranks near the bottom in every offensive category and needed to change things up in hopes of turning the season around.

The Texans have only one loss on the season and are currently on a five game winning streak. The two teams met in Week 4 with the Texans winning 38-14 in Tennessee. I'm expecting a similar result this week in Houston.

Gimme the Texans minus the points.

Minnesota at Green Bay (-9)

The Packers are looking to rebound after an embarrassing 38-10 loss to the N.Y. Giants last week. AaronRodgers will welcome the return of wide receiver GregJennings who is expected to play on a limited basis. The Packers defeated the Vikings 45-7 in their last meeting back in December of last year.

Gimme the Packers minus the points.

San Francisco at St. Louis (+7)

ColinKaepernick improved to 2-0 as a starter leading the Niners to wins over the Chicago Bears and the New Orleans Saints. Kaepernick looks to be the real deal and I'm sure glad I traded for him in my dynasty league earlier in the season. He was a throw-in as part of a much larger deal in which I acquired Gronk and a 1st round pick for Matt Ryan.