The Office for Budget Responsibility, created as an independent body by George Osborne when the Coalition came to power, said a combination of deficit reduction, high inflation, and weak global demand were possible reasons why the UK slumped back into recession in the first quarter of 2012.

Defending the forecasting errors made by the OBR during its short life to date, chairman Robert Chote said it was difficult to explain precisely why the economy had been so weak over the past two years.

He said the Government’s austerity programme might have damaged growth more than expected but cautioned this “doesn’t look like the explanation you would jump on first either.”

He said: “We can’t exclude the possibility that fiscal consolidation has hit growth harder than thought, but that said, stubborn inflation seems to be a better explanation for weak real consumption.

“Export markets may be a better explanation for the recent very substantial hit to net trade during the double dip. It’s then hard to distinguish the impact of the consolidation for example on business investment, from the impact of other expectations about future demand; about conditions in the eurozone; what’s going on in the financial sector.”

The OBR was founded to ensure that the Government’s fiscal and economic policies were based on realistic and transparent independent forecasts for growth and the public finances. Previously policy decisions were taken against the Treasury’s own forecasts, which were more vulnerable to political interference.

However, figures published by the OBR in its forecast evaluation reporton Tuesday showed that its own record for forecasting accuracy has been worse in some respects than the Treasury’s own over the past 20 years.

“It would be lovely if we had perfect foresight ... we are producing forecasts on the basis of our best professional judgment. It’s not affected by the politically motivated wishful thinking of any description.

“People are bound to disagree and have wildly differing views on what’s going wrong and what the explanations are.”

Mr Chote added that official data from the Office for National Statistics were often subject to revision, which might suggest he believes data in the coming years might show the double-dip was less severe than currently thought or eradicated altogether.

The OBR forecast the economy would grow by 5.7pc from the first quarter of 2010 to the second quarter of 2012, but according to the latest data from the ONS it grew by just 0.9pc.

Mr Chote said that although it had “significantly overestimated” growth over the past two years, government borrowing had fallen much as expected.

A spokesman for the Treasury said: “The analysis from the independent Office for Budget Responsibility confirms their judgement that the reason growth in the British economy is weaker than they had forecast is to do with 'unexpectedly stubborn inflation’ and 'deteriorating export markets’.”

Jonathan Portes, director of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, reiterated his view that “aggressive fiscal consolidation” in the UK is unnecessary and damaging, adding “the case for increased government investment in the UK is very strong”.