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International airlines face emissions caps from 2020

By Mike Marshall

AIR travel isn’t yet guilt-free, but it might be getting a bit greener. A UN agreement announced on 4 October means that airlines will have to curb their greenhouse gas emissions for international flights from 2020. The deal, brokered by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), seems like a big step forwards for efforts to tackle climate change.

The agreement is a historic milestone for air transport, says ICAO council president Roberto Kobeh González. “We have ultimately determined our greener way forward.” All 191 ICAO member states have signed up to the plan, which will incorporate an emissions trading scheme.

But there are two major uncertainties. First, countries that have only a small number of international flights have asked to be exempt. Each of these industries might be small, but there are a lot of them. If they get their way, about 25 per cent of the emissions from international flights would be exempt.

And crucially, so far we do not know how much CO2 the industry will be allowed to emit. If airlines get a large quota of emissions, the trading scheme will have little effect. The system will only cut emissions if the cap fits tightly.

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If airlines get a large quota of emissions, the trading scheme will have little effect

“It could range from great to a complete waste of time,” says aviation expert David Lee of Manchester Metropolitan University in the UK.