Friday, 4 August 2017

FIRST Lady Grace Mugabe last week demonstrated that she is
the power behind the throne when she demanded that her husband President Robert
Mugabe names his successor, joining a list of First Ladies who have attempted
to manage their husbands’ leadership succession or become pivotal in their
country’s power matrix.

In the case of Zanu PF, the succession issue has been
dragging on for years with no solution in sight. Although Grace is showing that
she is currently the pot stirrer, she is doing it more cautiously than she did
when she came out guns blazing against former vice-president Joice Mujuru.

In 2014 Grace threw tirades against Mujuru, accusing her of
plotting to oust her husband Mugabe before she finally managed to push her out
of Zanu PF. Although Grace is showing that she can manipulate situations to her
advantage, this time around she is doing it in a more subtle manner as compared
to the past where she railed and hurled insults throughout her rallies.

Analysts say Grace is being more careful because she is
aware that her new rival is more stronger and she is playing a high-risk
political game.

Her demands that Mugabe names a successor are designed to
ensure that Mugabe manages and resolves his succession quickly given his old
age and fast deteriorating health.

“I have told people that there will be no succession
without Mugabe. I have argued with him (Mugabe) and told him that he has a
right not only to participate in the succession process, but a right to anoint
his chosen successor,” declared Grace at the Zanu PF Women’s League meeting.

“His word is final and mark my words, it is coming.”

Zanu PF has two distinct factions, the G40 faction loyal to
Grace and another to Vice-President Emmerson Mnangagwa.

In dealing with the Mnangagwa faction, Grace is showing that
she is now relatively cautious and is aware of the risk of political
misadventure combating a tough customer.

The Mnangagwa faction is said to have a strong base around
the military, intelligence and war veterans, which makes it harder for Grace to
crack easily.

She did, however, take on Mnangagwa and his allies like
Mugabe’s spokesperson George Charamba to the cleaners at a rally in Chinhoyi.
In her blitz on Charamba, Grace complained that the state media was not
reporting on issues of development and that it was biased and reporting
negatively about “certain people”.

Although she described Mnangagwa as her friend, it was
clear that she would leave no stone unturned to ensure she manages Mugabe’s
succession and lobbies for Defence minister Sydney Sekeramayi.

She is walking down a well-travelled road.

Grace, just like Malawi’s former First Lady Cecilia Tamanda
Kadzamira, is moving towards being influential in the political arena and the
running of the state behind the scenes. Zimbabwe-born Kadzamira was the most
powerful woman in Malawi towards the end of Hastings Kamuzu Banda’s reign in
1994 and had greater control over who had access to the president just like
Grace. Just as we are seeing in Grace, Kadzamira made many decisions as Banda
became older and could no longer run the affairs of the country.

Kadzamira, however, unsuccessfully tried to influence Banda
to appoint her maternal uncle John Tembo as his successor in the party. Tembo
had been acting in Banda’s place in his absence. But Banda handed the Malawi
Congress Party political baton to Gwanda Chakuamba.

Another influential First Lady was Elena Ceaușescu, the
wife of Nicolae Ceaușescu, who was the Communist leader of Romania. After she
married Ceaușescu, Elena was given various offices at senior levels in the
Romanian Communist Party. She also became a member of the politburo of the
Romanian Communist Party, becoming the second most important and influential
person after Ceauşescu himself. She was deeply involved in party administration
alongside her husband up until she was made a first deputy prime minister, a
state title she also held until they were both executed in the Romanian
Revolution in 1989.

Analysts, however, say Grace is not the only succession
catalyst as there are other pot stirrers like Higher and Tertiary Education
minister Jonathan Moyo, who recently came out in public to voice support for
Sekeramayi as Mugabe’s successor.

The war veterans are also a catalyst in the succession
matrix as they rally behind Mnangagwa. The relationship between the liberation
struggle fighters and Grace has not been smooth because of constant clashes
over succession-related matters.

Political analyst Maxwell Saungweme said Grace is currently
pulling the strings behind the scenes.

“What Grace says goes. But she is only in charge as long as
Mugabe is there. Zanu PF thrives a system of patronage knitted around Mugabe.
So proximity to Mugabe means being powerful as the man has run that cult system
over decades using a mix of divide-and-rule antics, deceit and fear. So Mugabe
is currently the number one in Zimbabwe because of the aura and mysticism
around him,” said Saungweme.

“It is clear Mugabe’s capabilities are worn out due to
advanced age and ill-health. He is finished; what remains is the history, name
and aura.

“Once Mugabe is buried Grace’s supposed power goes with
him. She will be a nobody and those she is fighting today will go for her. She
is not seeing beyond her nose and punching above her level of political
sophistication and weight,” he added.

Another political analyst Pedzisai Ruhanya said Grace is
not the power behind the throne as whatever she is doing has the express
authority of Mugabe.

“When she speaks publicly on party and state issues, do not
see her, it is the president speaking. She is the mouthpiece of the president,
although she muddles the script. She is therefore not the power behind the
throne because the throne (Mugabe) is directing the operations. Without the
support of Mugabe, the First Lady will not last 30 seconds on the Zanu PF
political dance floor,” said Ruhanya. “Mugabe has both the de jure and de facto
power in both party and state, and those in Zanu PF know that. It is the legal
constitutional power vested in Mugabe that makes it very difficult for Zanu PF
factions to manoeuvre against him. Therefore, Grace can muddy the waters as
much as she wants but everything starts and ends with Mugabe.

“The day Mugabe leaves the political dance floor that will
be her end. The First Lady has neither de facto nor de jure powers to rock the
Zanu PF political boat without Mugabe’s authority. She does not have the
political base, history and networks good enough to withstand the treacherous
Zanu PF politics,” he added. Zimbabwe independent