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Feb 25, 2018 at 2:01 AMFeb 27, 2018 at 12:23 PM

If the congressional redistricting map ordered by the Pennsylvania Supreme Court is upheld, it will mean a sea change for western Pennsylvania and have far-reaching political consequences for Beaver County.

On Monday, the state’s highest court released a map that puts Beaver County in a new 17th Congressional District along with part of Cranberry Township and the northern and western parts of Allegheny County.

The district still includes Sewickley, hometown of U.S. Rep. Keith Rothfus, who currently represents the county in the 12th District, which current covers Beaver County, southern Lawrence County, Allegheny’s North Hills, and parts of Cambria, Somerset and Westmoreland counties.

Under the court’s map, Lawrence County would be in a new 16th District with part of Butler County, as well as Mercer, Crawford and Erie counties. U.S. Rep. Mike Kelly, R-3, Butler, lives in that district.

The new 18th District — most of which is currently represented by U.S. Rep. Mike Doyle, D-14, Forest Hills — would include Pittsburgh, eastern Allegheny and the Mon Valley. A new 14th District, which would not have an incumbent House member, would include Fayette, Greene and Washington counties and part of Westmoreland County.

Republican U.S. House members and state legislators have appealed the map to U.S. District Court in Harrisburg, and state Senate President Pro Tempore Joe Scarnati and House Speaker Mike Turzai have appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court.

The most obvious impact on Beaver County is that the new 17th District would be much more compact than the current 12th District, which stretches from the Ohio line to past Johnstown, and place the county with suburbs ringing Pittsburgh.

“Putting Allegheny and Beaver counties together makes a lot of sense as opposed to putting Cambria and Johnstown together with Beaver County,” said Mike Mikus, an Allegheny County Democratic campaign consultant who has worked with former U.S. Reps. Jason Altmire and Mark Critz.

Republican political consultants contacted by The Times did not respond to messages.

Among the eye-opening changes the map could bring is a Rothfus-vs.-Conor Lamb general election battle this fall if Lamb, a Mount Lebanon resident currently running in the March 13 special election for the 18th District, decides to seek the 17th District seat.

“It would be crazy for him not to run there under any circumstance,” said Mikus, who said the change in Rothfus’ district creates “a very good chance for the Democrats to flip that seat.”

If Lamb wins the special election, he will be a sitting House member with all the accompanying benefits, and if he loses, he will still have the name recognition, money, fundraising streams and party backing the other four candidates could only dream about.

“He would definitely start off with an advantage,” Mikus said.

Beaver County — which is majority Democrat, but consistently votes for Republicans — would still likely support Rothfus, Mikus said, but if Lamb could keep the race close while winning more sympathetic Allegheny areas, then he could oust Rothfus.

Mikus said Rothfus’ support for President Donald Trump — Rothfus backed the GOP tax plan and told The Times last week that semiautomatic weapons like the one used in the Florida school massacre should not be banned — might backfire.

“It might play well in certain parts, but in the district as a whole, (Rothfus’) unanimous support for Trump will be a drag on him in November,” Mikus said.

One indicator giving Democrats optimism against Rothfus is that Trump won the 12th District by 21 percentage points, but he would have won the new 17th District by just 3 percentage points.

Lamb, however, has kept focused on his nationally watched special election against state Rep. Rick Saccone, R-39, Elizabeth Township. Republican groups have sunk millions into the race to try to keep the seat in GOP hands and stymie the so-called “blue wave” that many are predicting for Democrats in this fall’s midterm elections.

With questions swirling about a potential challenge to Rothfus, Lamb issued a short statement Tuesday in which he reiterated that he is concentrating on the special election and would run for a full term this year. But, he did not say for which district seat that might be.

“As I’ve said from the beginning of this campaign, I will be running for a full term in Congress in 2018. I am entirely focused on the March 13 special election in the 18th District right now,” Lamb said.

“I’m concentrating on the election on March 13 and protecting the people of the 18th District from extreme budget cuts,” he said. “I am running for this seat now, and I will be running later, no matter where they draw the lines."

If the court’s map is effective for the May 15 primary, Lamb would need to circulate nominating petitions to get on the ballot in the 17th District. A surprising wrinkle is that candidates do not have to live in the congressional district that they are running to represent.

One such candidate not paying attention to boundary lines is Saccone, who told the Washington Observer-Reporter last week that he intends to run for the 14th District seat regardless of the special election outcome even though he lives in the 18th District.

Mikus said Saccone’s decision makes sense “because he knows there’s no possible path to victory” against Doyle in an 18th District that includes heavily Democratic Pittsburgh.

Democratic chances in the 16th District would be a “heavier lift” than the 17th District, Mikus said, but allowed that a reunited Erie County, which has been split between two congressional districts, “has potential in the right environment.”

A 16th District under the court’s map would mean southern Lawrence County, including Ellwood City, would no longer be with Beaver County in the same district as they have been in the 12th District.

Although it is farther south, the race for the 14th District could impact Beaver County because state Sen. Camera Bartolotta, R-46, Carroll Township, Washington County, might throw her hat in the ring with Saccone.

Bartolotta, who is up for re-election this year and represents parts of southern Beaver County including Aliquippa, Hopewell Township and Independence Township, posted the court’s map on her Facebook last week.

“My phone has been ringing off the hook (for the second time since Congressman Murphy resigned) with folks asking if I would run for Congress,” she wrote. “Your thoughts?”

Bartolotta did not return a telephone message on Friday.

With that district having no incumbent, Mikus predicted a bipartisan scramble for the seat.

“It’s way possible that it ends up being a free-for-all on both sides,” he said.

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