U.N. Population Report -- Iran, Large Population, Low Fertility

The world’s current population of 7.6 billion will rocket to 9.8 billion in 2050, says the latest UN report on the world’s population growth. India, Pakistan and seven other countries are the main factor in the increase.

Among the most populated countries of the world, Iran alongside Brazil, China, USA, Russia, Viet Nam, Germany, Thailand and the U.K. has the lowest fertility rate. It means the growth rate of the younger generation in the listed countries is not enough to replace the elderly.

Based on the latest assessments, the UN report asserts that 2.1 babies per each mother (21 babies per 10 mothers) are needed to resolve the problem. Nevertheless, according to the report, more countries are going to face the same problem.

A poll taken in 2015 showed that the lower fertility rate and the changes made in the definition of family in the past thirty years in Iran have been quite significant. Furthermore, the poll also indicated that men in Tehran are more reluctant to have babies than women.

“As the most populated country, India is on the way to take over china in just seven years,” UN’s Department of Economic and Social Affairs’ Population Division said.

Sixty per cent of the world’s people live in Asia (4.5 billion), 17 per cent in Africa (1.3 billion), 10 per cent in Europe (742 million), 9 per cent in Latin America and the Caribbean (646 million), and the remaining 6 per cent in Northern America (361 million) and Oceania (41 million).

China (1.4 billion) and India (1.3 billion) remain the two most populous countries of the world, comprising 19 and 18 per cent of the global total, respectively

At the global level, the UN report affirms “the numbers of men and women are roughly equal, with the male population being slightly larger than the female population. Currently, in 2017, there are 102 men for every 100 women.”

Between 2010 and 2015, the report says “47 countries with the lowest rate of development, with 4.3 birth per mother, had the highest fertility rate. Therefore, the population of 26 African countries will at least double until 2050.

Nigeria, with the highest rate of population growth, will have more inhabitants than the USA in 2050.

However, the worrisome point in the UN report is the rapid rate of population growth in the less developed and poorer countries where there are many concerns over the shortage of water and food resources.

"The population in Africa is notable for its rapid rate of growth, and it is anticipated that over half of global population growth between now and 2050 will take place in that region," John Wilmoth, director of the Population Division said.

"At the other extreme, it is expected that the population of Europe will, in fact, decline somewhat in the coming decades," John Wilmoth added at a news conference.

The report also maintains, “While women today bear fewer children on average over a lifetime, some regions of the world are still characterized by high levels of adolescent fertility (births to mothers aged 15-19 years). Since adolescent childbearing can have adverse health and social consequences both for the young mothers and for their children, it remains a topic of concern for many countries. Among regions of the world, the adolescent birth rate in 2010-2015 was highest in Africa at 99 per 1,000 women aged 15-19, followed by Latin America and the Caribbean at 67 per 1,000.”

According to the results of the 2017 Revision, the world’s population reached nearly 7.6 billion in mid-2017. The world has added one billion people since 2005 and two billion since 1993. In 2017, an estimated 50.4 per cent of the world’s population was male and 49.6 per cent female. In 2017, 9 per cent of the global population was under age 5, 26 per cent was under age 15, 13 per cent was aged 60 or over and 2 per cent was aged 80 or over.

Fifty-one countries or areas are projected to undergo a reduction in population size between 2017 and 2050. For ten countries or areas, populations are expected to decrease by more than 15 per cent by 2050: Bulgaria, Croatia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, the Republic of Moldova, Romania, Serbia, Ukraine and the United States Virgin Islands.

Ten countries are expected to account collectively for more than half of the world’s projected population increase over the period 2017-2050: India, Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Pakistan, Ethiopia, the United Republic of Tanzania, the United States of America, Uganda, Indonesia and Egypt; in the order of the expected contribution to global growth.