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Re: Sun Deck's Gonelong 2011 Season Win Prediction Thread

92 wins and another division crown. Arroyo comes back faster than expected. Volquez will have his best season yet and finish top 5 in the Cy Young. Cueto will be out of action most of the year, and Bailey will never put it together. But Wood should be effective, and I think either LeCure or Maloney will have a breakout season and make up for the lack of Cueto and Bailey. That is just my guess as to how the rotation will fare, but it shows that the Reds have so much depth that even if 2-3 of their potential starters aren't a factor this year, they can still have a good rotation.

The offense is solid and the defense should be great again. So why not predict the Reds to repeat as division champs? The only reasons I see are Rolen's potential decline, and the ???'s in the starting rotaton. But I think the Reds have depth in those areas. They also have the MVP Votto as well as potential breakthrough players like Bruce, Stubbs, Chapman, Wood and a bunch of guys in AAA.

Re: Sun Deck's Gonelong 2011 Season Win Prediction Thread

Defense:
This team has far and away the best defense in the division (and it's not even close). Hell, they may have the best defense in the NL.

Offense
They are 2 deep at almost every position on the field. The only crippling injury would be a season ender for Votto. Their offense may not lead the league again, but they will be in the top 5.

Bullpen:
Cordero seems to be throwing better, and is in good shape. Massett is an excellent set up guy, and Chapman (though wild at times) has such good stuff that he can usually escape his own jams. Bray is good as a situational lefty, and Ondrusek is a decent middle reliever.

Starters:
This is my biggest area of concern. I think Travis Wood is going to have a great year, and I think he'll settle in as a reliable number 2 starter. After that I have many questions. If Arroyo is able to get over his illness by the end of May you'll most assuredly have another of his solid years. Cueto will perform well if healthy, but I'll believe his arm is structurally sound when I see him go about 4 starts without leaving early. And as for Bailey, well, I've thought each of the last two years were going to be his breakout season. To me, this is it for Bailey with the Reds. If he doesn't make it this year my guess is he is dealt or sent the bullpen.

Overall:

The reds defense is just so far and away superior to anyone else in their division it's almost comical. St. Louis, Milwaukee and the Cubs all look to be varying degrees of bad or terrible on D (depending on how much Berkman, Soriano and Starlin Castro play for their teams), and Milwaukee was the worst in baseball at D last year. This will come in to play more then many think. The Reds have 3 legit gold glove caliber players up the middle in Stubbs, Phillips and Janish. Plus they have two on the corners in Rolen and Bruce, and hell, Votto may get one this year if he continues to improve. This team could very easily have 5 of their starting 8 win gold gloves. On top of that they can hit well (even if they slip a little, and appear to have a solid bullpen). Unless all their starters are simply terrible this team will be solid, and at the very least .500.

Re: Sun Deck's Gonelong 2011 Season Win Prediction Thread

95 wins and consecutive Central championships.

They won't be pretty in the early part of the season, but they have an easy schedule starting off so they'll at the top of the division from the start. The pitching will get stronger and stronger as the season goes on and the offense will continue to be as potent as it was last season.

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