Gregoire wins… barely

This is from a “reliable source”, but “unconfirmed” and “unofficial” and all the other tentative qualifiers you can think of, but — not counting the 723 — Democratic number crunchers believe that after King County’s results are added in, Christine Gregoire will lead the manual recount… by less than 10 votes.

Hoo-boy this race just gets more and more interesting. How can it be, 10 votes?!?!?! I agree with previous posters that regardless of who wins the closeness of this election and the recounts puts a cloud over the effectiveness of the governorship. A pity, regardless of who takes office.

I’m going to assume the Dems would only release the info if they were absolutely positive (who wants egg on their face in this situation). So who here wants to take bets the Republicans will start using yet another new argument to try to discount the results of the hand recount (even without the 730+ votes).

Oh, please. This is from the same nut who called 42 votes behind a “tie” and now calls EIGHT ahead a victory. Spare me your arrogance. I want confirmation before I can even consider this being more than a spurious report. I refuse to put it on my blog for the fact that there is NO independent confirmation. Absolutely NONE.

And yes, we have enough arguments to force a new election. This is what happens when you INITIATE lawyers – the other side (as in the damn f@#3ing Rossifarians to you guys) have to.

I wish Goldy was running – we all know he’d win by EIGHT… AS IN EIGHT HUNDRED THOUSAND VOTES!

Well, if you’re going to argue that 42 votes is not a tie, then 8 ahead is a win. You can’t have it both ways.

I have aso had it about up to here with Rossi supporters who spent weeks saying the election needs to have “closure” and Gregoire should concede for the “good of the people” but now that a legal hand recount has shown their candidate didn’t win, they want to change the rules and drag this state into a complete revote at a cost of $4 million+ to the state (not to mention the lack of “closure”).

Reminds me of the Rossi protestor quoted in the PI article: “‘They need to end it here. This is becoming really ridiculous,’ said Shelley Weber of Olympia, a part-time school district worker who wore an orange hunting vest and carried a Republican Party flag. But she said Rossi should sue if he loses the third vote count.

‘He has a good case, and he needs to fight for what is right,’ Weber said.”

That’s a combination of total hypocrisy and complete blindness to the fact that Gregoire’s doing the exact same thing (fighting for what she believes is right).

Reading the P-I article, the Democrats conclusions apparently are based on a combination of

1)the daily recount data that Dean Logan has been giving the parties, but no one else (Josef- there’s your right to public information being trampled again); and

2) The Democrats observation of the Canvassing Board decisions today, as they examined, one-by-one, the unclear ballots- allowing anyone in the room to keep a running tally.

King County Elections is saying that there are still discrepancies in precinct counts needing to be reconciled, etc.

Democrats have every reason to want to spin this, perhaps hoping the Court will decide that the smart thing to do is pad the Gregoire margin and help hold off a Rossi election challenge.

However, the Republicans, supposedly with the same data, are strangely quiet.

Berendt takes a big risk, because if he is wrong he will have a State Supreme Court clearly believing they were spun…

On the other front, it appears increasingly likely that the GOP elements in charge of strategy are prepared to take to the mattresses, especially if the final Gregoire margin is under 100- and that is not good for this state.

Rossi should concede, and give the dirty win to Gregoire. The deck is stacked against the Republicans, and Vance is too inept to figure out how to fight it. It would be interesting, though, to get a full audit of the ballots reviewed by the election board. Sunlight does amazing things to shadiness.

There’s no dirty win here except in the mind of Republicans. And I’m sure that with all the scrutiny either UW or the press (or both) will perform a detailed recount after the election is over. And when that recount shows that Gregoire wins, Republicans will find a way to spin those results into a Gregoire loss because they can’t handle the truth. They’ll blame the liberal media or something.

Just like what happened after the media and universities conducted a full state-wide recount of Florida that clearly show Gore won. Republicans continue to believe that those results showed Bush won.

Every count in Florida done by reputable sources (including the New York Times and other MSM) showed a Bush win in 2000. I look forward to seeing the “undervotes” and “overvotes” that were judged to be “Gregoire” votes.

I still say concede, but fully analyze the results. Then we watch Dean Logan and Paul Berendt start losing the controversial votes as fast as they were manufacturing them in the last month.

Assuming this 8-vote lead holds up, I do plan to do a little gloating. But I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again… this election has always been a “statistical tie.” The only reason Gregoire is now apparently the next governor, is because the statute says the hand recount is the final count.

So as joyful as I will be if my candidate “wins”, I hope my fellow Gregoire supporters will have a little empathy for the heartbreak and disappointment being felt by those on the other side. Oh, I could give a shit about that bastard Vance, or Rossi, who after all, sanctioned all that propagandistic garbage. But please try to put yourselves in the shoes of the Rossi voters.

If Gregoire had been leading after the first to counts, only to lose the final count by a squeaker, would you feel a little cheated? It’s only natural.

Goldy – I can give you that. If I were a Rossi supporter I would certainly be disappointed, and I would be even more disappointed that with a Democratic controlled legislature and a Democratic governer there’s an even greater chance of Democrats making headway on their goals.

I also agree that it’s a statistical tie because it’s within the margin of error of both machine and hand recount methods. But it’s a win the same way Rossis 261 or 42 vote lead would have been a win if state law hadn’t called for a machine recount or Gregoire had conceded after the machine recount (respectively). The Republicans wan’t to have it both ways (Rossi’s 42 vote lead is a win, but Gregoire’s 8 vote lead is stealing the election). I’m certainly not going to accept that argument.

And as for gloating, I will reserve it for all the Republicans now interested in changing the rules by searching high and low for any specious argument they can dream up to discount the fact that Gregoire (apparently) has won the election.

Oh, and to answer your last question, yes, I would be bummed if Gregoire lost. But I’d be more bummed if she were blown out of the water (because that would mean far greater support for Republicans). And, I wouldn’t be taking to the streets (just like I didn’t after Florida of 2000) or claiming that I was going to try and shut down the government.

Janet – There were multiple observers from both the Republican and Democratic party watching every vote being counted during the hand recount. And any time there was an issue they paid special attention and even more people watched. Unlike Florida 2000, we had a full statewide recount (not just selective counties, as Gore and Bush were arguing about) with intense partisan and media scrutiny. And all reports, especially from people who’ve actually been to the recount (various posts here and Danny Westneat’s article in the Times, etc.) indicate overwhelmingly that there haven’t been disputes about how to count the ballots. I’ve only seen one report (and that was outside of King County) of a canvassing board even having to deliberate for a long time about a ballot (it ended up going for Rossi).

Well at least we got a full re-count this time. No Supreme Court hankey-pankey. The ballot were all counted with observers from both parties.

It is never easy to lose. I think the Rossi resume fabrications caused him the election. If he had had more integrity he might have pulled it off. Perhaps the next few years he could put to good use by getting out an honest reume. Not that I would vote for him, at his age he should have known better.

Folks- before starting the gloat, remember there are more EXISTING rules that can come into play- specifically Chapter 29A.68 RCW- Contesting An Election…

I am NOT advocating this course of action- anybody paying attention knows I have NOT liked the involvement of the lawyers. But the lawyers are unholstered, and life doesn’t just go on quietly…

So please don’t start flaming me as a sore loser- I’m only pointing out that there are more acts in this play…

Just this afternoon the Gregoire camp reversed course and affirmed their right to appeal an adverse decision from the State Supreme Court to the United States Supreme Court, so please also do not give me the “Gregoire would have conceded” routine.

Neither camp is quitting until they’ve run out of options.

Neither side is out of options. Neither side is quitting.

It ain’t over until the fat lady sings, and Governor Ray ain’t here no more…

I helped pay for the recount, so for some unknown reason I think I have something to say. It’s time to think about running the election again for the sake of the state and for the effectiveness of whomever is the winner.

If you all pulled your heads out of your butts you might realize that it really doesn’t matter either way. No one is EVER going to be sure – – – period! No matter which side you’re on you’ll never know who REALLY won, because even if the counts were absolutely perfect, people will always feel there was a mistake or worse, fraud – – – either way! This will be a nightmare for Rossi or Gregoire – – – and the hatred will grow like a cancer on our state.

Why don’t we ALL think independently, like we used to in this state, instead of taking our cues from cheerleaders like Vance or Berendt? Instead of you Republicans always knee jerking on command from the White house, why not think for yourselves?

So, what to do? Listen to Ralph Monroe (hey, he’s a Republican – with some experience in these kinds of things) – – – let’s run the election over again. Everyone will get their chance to trash the other side, which people on both sides seem to really enjoy. So what are we waiting for? 42 votes or 420 votes – – – Rossi would never be my governor anymore than Gregoire would be a Repubs.

In fact, at the time I received the word that the Dems were projecting a victory, I was in the midst of writing a now outdated blog entry that suggested both sides already knew the results. Part of my reasoning was the sudden PR shift towards pushing for a revote that took place early last week, when the R’s apparently learned there was bad news coming from Snohomish, Pierce and Spokane. I figured if they knew about the other counties in advance, they knew about King, which explained a lot of things about both party’s public statements over the past few days.

Rossi’s people have been laying the groundwork for contesting the election, in hopes of getting a new one. They have so relentlessly and viciously attacked Gregoire and the Dems over the past weeks, that they feel comfortable they would win a new vote. And Rossi’s statement that he would only accept the results of this recount if they showed he won, was less than subtle.

I’d agree… it ain’t over til the fat lady sings. (And that would be Chris Vance.)

Josef – there are still a lot of legal moves. BUT that approach will be the grave of the Republican Party. Think about it. Partisians like us are all awash, the public just wants it over. End of the road, amazingly close, but only 57 votes changed- stayed close all the way.

Call Rossi and tell him he will end the political hopes of the R’s for a gneration if he dances with Rove into the graveyard of a contested election.

I have lived here in the Northwest all my life. We value fair play. Take the good and the bad life delivers. Stoic in the face of defeat. This is not the sewer like politics of the old South and old East. If Rossi moves to sue for victory you will see the Democrat party build on its already strong base like never before.

For example, talked to a group of Dem activists/workers today at lunch, they are thinking of registering voters during the next two weeks for 06 on Capitol Hill because they have seen so much anger against the R’s they think it isn’t too soon to get started. My suggestion was to wait unitl Valentines day, and wear hearts.

Goldy- another interesting wrinkle- our election contest law focuses on official misconduct and illegal votes (ignoring ineligibility of winner, felony status of winner, bribery by winner, etc.)- and for Rossi, illegal votes (official misconduct is limited to a precinct election board- NOT a county canvassing board).

“Illegal votes include but are not limited to the following:

(i) More than one vote cast by a single voter;

(ii) A vote cast by a person disqualified under Article VI, section 3 of the state Constitution.

(b) Illegal votes do not include votes cast by improperly registered voters who were not properly challenged under RCW 29A.08.810 and 29A.08.820.

The reality is, this was not a fraudulent or unusually error prone election, but rather, an extremely close one. Rossi’s people have put forth a lot rhetoric and conjecture about fraud, but do they have any cold hard evidence? I’m not sure that contesting and losing would necessarily end Rossi’s political career, but it would be a huge setback. Meanwhile, the GOP could probably care less about risking Rossi’s career, if they thought they had a reasonable shot at having a court certify Democrats corrupt.

Good point. The lack of public disclosure on this is insane and reduces trust.

Folks: The lack of confirmation speaks for itself. For you to declare victory based on this information is arrogant.

And because of the suspicious nature of ANY Gregoire win – I believe you should tread carefully on calling Rossifarians hypocrites. We will win, or stop Gregoire in her tracks. Either or. We won 2 counts, fair and square.

We’re in this for the duration. You had your chance to put an end to this and chose to go into Round III and are solely responsible for the consequences as well as initiating the involvement of the lawyers. If need be, we’ve got a Round IV and V ready to go.

$4 million–what price democracy? I’m sorry but 8 votes is not a victory! How did that happen in King County? How many votes did Gregoire win King County by the first time? There’s something rotten in Denmark.

DCF – to be clear, Gregoire didn’t win King County by 8 votes, she won the state by 8 votes. Which would mean that she picked up an additional 58 votes to pad her already 100,000+ vote margin in King County.

If 42 votes is not a tie, then 8 votes is just as much a victory. Stop trying to change your rules with your post hoc reasoning after your guy lost.

$4 million could go a long way to paying for what ails various people in this state, like adding to the DHSH budget, paying for parks, cleaning up oil spills, more money for cops, etc. But instead you want to contest the legal results of a obcenely well-observed hand recount because you’re unhappy.

You talk about going all 10 yards, well, the hand recount is 10 yards. The Dems took advantage of their legal rights and paid for a hand recount. They (apparently) have won that hand recount, even without the ballots you’re so sure were un-secure. So the Dems took a chance and won.

If you want to take another chance and push it to the US Supreme Court, feel free. But just like there was always a possibility that Gregoire would win in a hand recount (as evidenced by the shrinking margin after the machine recount) be prepared for the possibility that Rossi would lose any appeal to the US Supremes and the Republicans would end up further marginalized in this state.

What kind of fool is Paul Berendt to announce this??? What a supreme jackass. It may be true but it smells insiderish (invented word). He AND Vance can take a flying f-ing leap. It is gloating and immature. Let KC officially release the results and then discuss.

Dems are just trying to control the media spin, same as Republicans have been doing for a month. While I agree, generally, with your sentiment that Vance and Berendt aren’t the most even-handed commentators, I hardly think the Dems are guilty of anything worse than the Republicans.

And unlike Vance, Berend’t hasn’t been trying to muddy the waters with unfounded accusations of fraud by the Republicans.

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