The NDP’s still got a Quebec problem

On the eve of the NDP leadership candidates’ French-language debate in Montreal, a Léger Marketing poll showed that 80 per cent of Quebecers didn’t know — or care — about the party’s leadership campaign.

The numbers on party voting preference in Quebec were just as bleak for the New Dems. The Liberals were at 43 per cent in the poll taken last week, with the NDP at 19 per cent, the Bloc Québécois at 16 per cent and the Conservatives at 15 per cent.

That’s landslide territory for les rouges, in the vicinity of 60 out of Quebec’s 78 seats in Parliament. By contrast, in 2015 the Liberals won 40 seats in Quebec with 36 per cent of the vote, the NDP took 16 seats with 25 per cent, the Conservatives won 12 seats with 17 per cent, and the Bloc won 10 seats with 19 per cent of the vote.

In 2011, under Jack Layton, the NDP won 59 seats with 43 per cent of the vote. You can see where this is going.

Quebecers may be largely indifferent to the NDP race, and the party may be in deep trouble there, but you wouldn’t know it from Sunday’s leadership debate at the iconic Club Soda on St. Laurent Boulevard in the heart of Montreal. The place was packed, the joint was jumping. “Club Soda! Wow!” said Angus, who was in a rock band 30 years ago. “I played here with a punk show.”

The NDP race has offered a striking contrast to the constantly cringe-worthy Conservative leadership tilt, with 14 candidates on stage, many of them speaking embarrassingly poor French. The NDP leaders’ debates, with only four candidates, are obviously much more easily managed, and the three anglophone candidates speak perfectly acceptable French.

The NDP also has done a much better job than the Conservatives of organizing debates that flow very fast, both in the room and on television. For example, they have one-on-one segments, with candidates asking each other questions. Angus had a lively exchange with Singh:

“If you lose,” Angus asked, “will you run federally or return to Toronto?

“With respect,” Singh replied, “I won’t lose.” Angus tried again.

“With great respect,” Singh replied, “when I win, I’ll run in the federal election.”

The crowd loved it.

As a Sikh, Singh was the candidate under the microscope. In the Léger poll, 28 per cent of respondents said they would be ‘discouraged’ from voting for him because of his turban.

The candidates’ positions on many issues amounted to basic NDP boilerplate; each could have recited many of the others’ talking points. They were all against construction of new pipelines, from Energy East — whose route through Quebec to New Brunswick is an raw issue in Quebec — to the Trans Mountain project to twin the pipeline and triple its capacity from Alberta to Vancouver — a hot button in B.C.

On the question of federal subsidies to support the aerospace industry, they all denounced Bombardier executives for lining their own pockets with pay increases while sharing none of it with their workers. All of them endorsed Premier Philippe Couillard’s call to re-open the Constitution to finally obtain Quebec’s signature on the 1982 repatriation and entrenchment of the Charter of Rights. They were quite scathing about Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s abrupt dismissal of Couillard’s initiative. On the prospects for peace in the Middle East, they all supported a two-state solution between the Israelis and the Palestinians.

And then there was the language question — on the 40th anniversary of the passage of Quebec’s Bill 101, no less — as well as the pending Bill 62 on the “secularization” of Quebec — preventing people from giving or receiving provincial public services while wearing face coverings such as veils, niqabs or burkas.

On the language issue, the four NDP contenders appeared to agree that, 40 years on, it’s time to accept Bill 101 and French as the language of work within the federal civil service in Quebec.

But on Bill 62, there was a clear split on stage. Caron brought it up in his opening statement. “Rejecting secularism because we believe it’s just racism is just fundamentally misunderstanding Quebec,” he said. But Ashton put it very succinctly when she said that no one should tell anyone what to wear.

As a Sikh, Singh was the candidate under the microscope on this issue. In the Léger poll, 28 per cent of respondents said they would be “discouraged” from voting for him because of his turban.

“I’m not here to convince you to accept my turban, nor my beard,” he declared. “What I want to convince you is that I’m someone who shares the same values as you.”

And as a courtroom lawyer who made quite a reputation for himself in Toronto, he said he believes Bill 62 contravenes Quebec’s own Charter of Human Rights and Freedoms.

From foreign aid to free trade, border crossings to tuition in post-secondary education, they covered a lot of ground, and at a very high level.

With one debate left in Vancouver on September 10, it’s now a numbers game on memberships. While the Conservatives had all ridings created equal in terms of the leadership vote, the NDP has a one-member, one-vote system, which has allowed Singh to enter the race late in the game. He has money and a ground game. If he has signed up enough members in southern Ontario, Alberta and lower mainland B.C., he can be competitive with Angus, the frontrunner with the party base.

We don’t know the answer to that question yet; the NDP released its membership numbers Tuesday but it’s not yet clear how they break down. If all four candidates stay in until voting begins, they’ll be looking at a second ballot in October and possibly a third — which, if it prolongs the suspense and the excitement, would be good for the NDP.

Quality candidates and a good race.

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The views, opinions and positions expressed by all iPolitics columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of iPolitics.