Some Las Vegas oddsmakers have sent the “over/under” on the win total for the 2017 Atlanta Falcons at 9.5 wins. At least initially, that number seems ridiculously low, given the fact that this team finished with an 11-5 record last season, and beat the Dallas Cowboys and Green Bay Packers en route to representing the NFC in Super Bowl LI this past February.

And yet, we’re not only telling you to bet the “under,” wagering that the Falcons will win less than 9.5 games this year, but we’re also saying that the 2017 Atlanta Falcons will not only fail to win the NFC South division this year, but also fail to make the playoffs.

Here’s a fact for you: over the last 20 years, the team that lost the Super Bowl failed to make the playoffs 9 times. Over the last 15 years, the Super Bowl loser failed to make the playoffs the ensuing year. In other words, it’s basically a 50/50 chance that if you lose the Super Bowl, you’re not making the postseason the following year.

But specifically, in terms of the Falcons, there are two big reasons why we’re confident enough to make such a statement:

1. We think everyone overlooked an Atlanta defense that really wasn’t all that great

2. The difference between Kyle Shanahan’s offense and Steve Sarkisian’s offense is going to be jarring, in a really, really bad way if you’re a Falcons fan.

While the offense was busy putting up franchise-best numbers last season, the defense finished 26th in defensive DVOA last season, 25th in total yards allowed per game, and 28th in passing yards allowed per game. They allowed the fifth-most touchdown passes in the NFL to opponents last year, and didn’t have anyone on the entire team (outside of Vic Beasley Jr.) register more than five sacks. Does that sound like a “good defense” to you? In fact, name a player on the Falcons defense, outside of maybe Beasley, who opposing teams really need to worry about. If you polled 100 relatively knowledgeable NFL fans, could they name more than three players on the Falcons defense?

Atlanta plays in a division where they’ll face Drew Brees, Cam Newton, or Jameis Winston in more than a third of their games this year; that’s not even mentioning the fact that Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and Russell Wilson are all on teams who are on the Falcons’ schedule this year as well.

And before you say: “well, Atlanta can win those games in a shootout,” that brings us to the Shanahan-Sarkisian issue, with that issue specifically being the fact that the Falcons are replacing one of the BEST offensive minds in the NFL with someone who has NEVER called plays or ran an offense in the NFL at any point in his career.

What Shanahan did for the Falcons offense last year was his career’s magnum opus. He found a way to masterfully utilize Devonta Freeman, Tevin Coleman, Taylor Gabriel, Mohamed Sanu, the incomparable Julio Jones, and a veritable pupu platter of tight ends, taking all of those random ingredients and concocting an offering in a way that would’ve made an Iron Chef proud.

But Shanahan is gone, and being replaced by Steve Sarkisian. Here’s what you need to know about about Sarkisian: 1) the last time he was a head coach, he was fired because of a history of alcohol abuse; and 2) Sarkisian has never been an offensive coordinator in the NFL.

In the three seasons prior to 2016, Atlanta finished 21st, 12th, and 20th in the NFL in points per game. So tell us what sounds more realistic: Sarkisian implementing another league-leading, well-oiled offensive juggernaut? Or Atlanta’s offense reverting back to the mean, thanks to a coordinator who was so toxic that most college programs gave tremendous pause to the idea of hiring him?

So, scoff at our less 9.5 wins projection. Go ahead and overlook the fact that, in the three seasons before last year, Atlanta failed to reach nine wins, or the fact that they’ve ranked in the bottom six in the NFL in points allowed per game in three of the past four seasons.

We stand by our prediction that the Falcons will be suffering the “Super Bowl loser hangover” this upcoming season.

In sports wagering with top sportsbooks, there are a few bets that are thought to be routine bets and the over-under is one of them. The over-under is a straightforward wager where the bettor makes a decision whether the final score of a certain NFL game will be more than or less than a posted limit. The limit stands for the sum total points scored by both teams. Hence, you either bet on the over or the under.

The over-under is noted in the following way with the visiting team first:

Cleveland Brownso/u 39.5Denver Broncos

In this game, the over-under is specified with a decimal, which is an impossible result. That’s done to stay clear of a push, meaning that the overall points for this game will wind up either above or shown below the number posted. If the over-under were 39 or 40, then the teams could possibly wind up with 39 or 40 points. Then there could be a tie and all bets would be returned.

In our instance if the total amount is under 40, the under wins, of if more than 39, the over wagers gain the cash. It’s that simple.

In NFL sports wagering, the over-under is not merely chosen out of thin air. Like the pointspread, moneyline and all other wagers, it’s based on a variety of aspects, including particular statistics related to scoring offense and defense.

Prior to wagering on the over-under check out the pointspread. This will tell you how close the experts believe the score will be. Compare that to the over-under number! That will provide you a good scenario of just how the scoring is anticipated to go.

In other words, if the pointspread on the game listed above has Denver favored at

-10.5 that would suggest that the score when taken into consideration versus the over-under is anticipated to be something like:.

Cleveland 14.5

Denver 25.

These numbers are approximate, yet they offer you a great idea of exactly what 39 total points would certainly resemble if they play out in reality. If you assume Cleveland will score less, however Denver will still rack up 25 points, then you may intend to go with the under. Similarly, if after doing your research you think Denver will certainly score an additional TD and Cleveland will also score at least 14 than you should go with the over bet.

But, what if the pointspread has Cleveland at -3.5? Exactly how would that appear with the same over-under?

Cleveland 21.5Denver 18.

Once more, checking out that probable outcome based on coordinating the pointspread with the over-under, you would ask yourself if the point total for each team makes sense. If the totals don’t, then based upon your evaluation, you would choose the appropriate over-under bet.

If you have the ability to make use of all information at your fingertips, using numbers offered by the handicappers, you can fairly easily determine how exact the over-under might be. Use this device to assist you in making winning bets!