The Food and Agricultural
Organization (FAO) Web page contains excellent agricultural
statistics from all countries. It is in a form suitable for on-line
reading and also for downloading into spreadsheets. With that
available, there is little excuse for the misinformation I see in many
newsgroups, e.g. little excuse for Paul Ehrlich's "Netherlands
fallacy" fallacy.

The on-line Encyclopedia Britannica is
worth checking for many questions related to sustainability. I have
used it a lot. Many universities subscribe so that IP addresses in
their domains can get it directly. Individuals can subscribe for $150
per year.

Books

Simon, Julian (editor). THE STATE OF HUMANITY (Blackwell, Cambridge, MA and
Oxford, UK) 1995. The 58 chapters by many authors are divided into
parts entitled "Life, Death and Health", "Standard of Living,
Productivity, and Poverty", "Natural Resources", "Agriculture, Food, Land
and Water", "Pollution and the Environment", "Thinking about the Issues",
and "Conclusion: From the Past to the Future".

Julian Simon led the charge against the dooomsayers. His arguments
against them are based mainly on history and economics and current
statistics. He goes much less into science and technology than we do.
Here is Simon's home page, and here is a direct reference to his
on-line works including a version of the above-mentioned book.
The web Simon page is still there, although Simon died in 1998.

The 1980-1990 Ehrlich-Simon Bet Simon won a
famous bet with Paul Ehrlich about how the price of metals would
move in the 1980s. The Stanford University population biologist Paul
Ehrlich who tends to believe that the world is facing increasing
scarcity believed that the price of metals would go up because of
this. Simon, paying attention to costs of production and the
magnitude of reserves believed the prices would go down. The bet
concerned the price of 5 minerals. (Ehrlich got to choose which 5
minerals).
Simon sold Ehrlich an option to buy an amount of each
mineral worth $200 in 1980. Inflation was taken into account, so that
the payoff would be an amount in 1990 dollars corresponding to
whoever's predictions were more accurate. If the price went up, Simon
would pay Ehrlich, and they went down, Ehrlich would pay Simon.
Here's what happened to the minerals, which had been selected by
Ehrlich.

All 5 minerals went down in price, taking inflation into account, so
Ehrlich sent Simon a check for $576.07. Just a check, no letter. Simon
offered another bet on a proposition of Ehrlich's choice,
but Ehrlich declined. (Five years later Ehrlich and Stephen Schneider
proposed a different bet on a take-it-or-leave it basis, but it was
formulated in such a way that Simon was right to decline).

The source for the Ehrlich-Simon bet and its outcome is an article
by John Tierney entitled "Betting the Planet" in the New York Times
Magazine, December 2, 1990, starting on page 52. There's a lot more
in it about the issues than just an account of the bet.

Simon then offered Ehrlich a new bet on the price of commodities to be
named by Ehrlich, but Ehrlich declined.

After a San Francisco Chronicle story about the bet,
Ehrlich and Professor Stephen Schneider proposed a new bet on a
take-it-or-leave-it basis. Simon declined, in my opinion quite
reasonably. The basic difference is that Ehrlich and Schneider wanted
to bet on ways in which they thought the world would get worse, and
Simon wanted to bet on measures of human welfare. Here are the
proposed items and some comments of mine.

1. The three years from 2002 to 2004 will on average be warmer
than 1992-1994 (rapid climactic change associated with global warming
could pose a major threat of increasing droughts and floods).
They want $1,000 without a quantitative estimate. They don't offer
to bet that the warming will be harmful.

2. There will be more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere in 2004
than in 1994. Carbon dioxide is the most important gas driving global
warming.

Seems pretty safe.

3. There will be more nitrous oxide in the atmosphere in 2004 than
in 1994. Nitrous oxide is another greenhouse gas that is increasing
because of human disruption of the nitrogen cycle.

I dunno about this disruption of the nitrogent cycle.

4. The concentration of tropospheric ozone globally will be
greater in 2004 than in 1994. Tropospheric ozone has important
deleterious effects on human health and crop production.

They didn't offer to bet on specific effects from the ozone.

5. Emissions of sulfur dioxide in Asia will be significantly
greater in 2004 than in 1994. Sulfur dioxide becomes sulphuric acid
in the atmosphere, the principal component of acid rain, and it is
associated with direct damage to human health.

Yes, but are they betting that there will be more worldwide?

6. There will be less fertile cropland per person in 2004 than in
1994. As the population grows, some of Earth's best farmland is being
paved over.

Some but not much. This is a rather sure bet unless the population
crashes.

7. There will be less agricultural soil per person in 2004 than
there was in 1994. About a quarter of the world's top soil has been
lost since World War II, and erosion virtually everywhere far exceeds
rates of soil replacement.

Yes, but there may be more crops.

8. There will be on average less rice and wheat grown per person
in 2002-2004 than in 1992-'94. Rice and wheat are the two most
important crops consumed by people.

This is a reasonable bet. It could go either way. If people in developing
countries upgrade their diets to include more meat, they might consume
less rice and wheat and more corn by feeding it to animals.

9. In developing nations there will be less firewood available per
person in 2004 than in 1994. More than a billion people today depend
on fuelwood to meet their energy needs.

It is certainly true that people can't depend on fuelwood. They
will have to use nuclear reactors in the long term and kerosene in the
short term. A bet about how many will find cooking easier or less
easy would be reasonable, not specifying the method of cooking.

10. The remaining area of tropical moist forests will be
significantly smaller in 2004 than in 1994. These forests are the
repositories of some of humanity's most precious living recourses,
including the basis for many modern pharmaceuticals worldwide.

No quantitative measure offered. What if Simon said it wasn't
significantly smaller and they said it was.

11. The oceanic fisheries harvest per person will continue its
downward trend and thus in 2004 will be smaller than in 1994
(overfishing, ocean pollution and coastal wetlands destruction will
continue to take their toll.

But there may be more total fish eaten - even per capita.

12. There will be fewer plant and animal species still extant in
2004 than in 1994.

Suppose some new species were to appear. How might they be recognized
as new?

What? No prediction of great famines - in spite of anything that can
possibly be done? That was Ehrlich's 1968 prediction for the 1970s
and 1980s.

I'd like to have seen a bet on issues more directly connected to
human welfare.

Life expectancy in both the rich and poor countries.

Infant mortality in rich and poor countries.

Days lost per year due to illness.

How about literacy rates, worldwide? Fraction of school age children
in school? Incidence of child labor?

Fraction of people's incomes spent on food?

Air pollution index of 20 biggest cities?

Fraction of American coastline closed to swimming because of
pollution?

Worldwide rate of population increase?

Fraction of homes worldwide with safe water supply? With running
water? With indoor toilets connected to a sewage system?

Fraction with TVs?

Fraction with cars?

Fraction of people in poor countries with available McDonalds?
McDonalds maintains a higher standard of cleanliness, efficiency and
health than is common in most countries. Having competition from
McDonalds can raise standards in any region, including many in the US.

Availability of air conditioning in tropical countries. I
got flak on this one in the sci.environment newsgroup. Some
said that tropical people didn't want or shouldn't want air
conditioning. Someone pointed out that movie theaters in India
are air conditioned.

Kwh of electricity per capita per year?

Fraction of population with Internet access.

Unfortunately, the bet issue is moot, because Julian Simon died in 1998.
This was a great loss to the world, and he hasn't yet been significantly
replaced.

Lester Brown is the founder (1974) of Worldwatch Institute, a leading
(though somewhat moderate) doomsayer. According to Simon, Brown was
one of the experts behind Global 2000, the Carter Administration's
gloomy forecast. Incidentally, Brown never refers to Paul Ehrlich,
although Ehrlich was the leading doomsayer at the time and the author
of the popular textbook Population, Resources and Environment.
I would guess that Brown thought Ehrlich would be recognized as a crackpot
but didn't want to express disagreement with someone on the same side.

It is interesting to compare these two
1981 books to see whose prognostications stand up better from a 1995
point of view. I'll compare when I have finished both, but my bets
are on Simon.

Bailey, Ronald (editor),THE TRUE STATE OF THE
PLANET, Free Press (Simon and Schuster) 1995. This collection of ten
essays, sponsored by the Competitive Enterprise Institute, takes an optimistic
view of the present situation, and disputes the gloom mongers.
Click here for its table of contents.
In some respects, I think some of the authors make too many concessions
to environmentalist correctness.

Comment by B. Alan Guthrie: "Examines nuclear power issues with essays being
contributed by prominent authorities on both sides of the issues. The
editing is not too strong - I was ready to ridicule one argument, but
when I checked the footnotes, it became apparent that the word "not"
had been inadvertantly left out of the text. The intended text, while
still quite wrong IMHO, was no longer ridiculous. The essays are
extensively footnoted, allowing the interested reader to dig deeper into
the literature.
I had not seen Nuclear Power: Both Sides until today, and
I have perused it for a good ten minutes. It looks like it might be
an excellent book for your FAQ."

It will be interesting to see if Nuclear Power: Both Sides
does present both sides. I had regarded Michio Kaku as an
anti-nuclear fanatic.

Textbooks:

Introduction to Nuclear Engineering John R. Lamarsh; Addison-Wesley
Publishing Company. Deals with the basics of nuclear engineering,
including discussions of reactor safety and radiation protection. Some
basic mathematics/physics familiarity assumed, although the non-technical
reader can avoid these digressions if necessary.

Basic Nuclear Engineering Arthur R. Foster & Robert L. Wright, Jr.;
Allyn and Bacon. Has more information on conceptual reactor designs
and on radioisotope applications than Lamarsh's book. Some basic
mathematics/physics familiarity assumed, although the non-technical
reader can avoid these digressions if necessary.

Nuclear Energy Conversion M. M. El-Wakil; Intext Educational
Publishers; Few equations, is organized with a chapter on a power plant
design followed by a chapter examining specific examples of that design.
Covers boiling water reactors, pressurized water reactors (including
heavy water reactors), gas-cooled reactors, fast breeder reactors in
this manner. Also discusses organic-cooled and moderated reactors,
thermionic energy conversion, direct energy conversion, fusion power,
and nuclear power economics.

Abstract--By use of standard models and theories, the number of cancer
fatalities caused by dispersal of plutonium is estimated. This
process includes development of estimates of Pu toxicity for
inhalation and ingestion, calculation of meteorological dispersal
using the Gaussian plume model, estimates of resuspension effects from
empirical models, and estimation of very long term effects from
comparison with natural uranium in soil. The conclusions on Pu
toxicity are that we may expect one cancer for each 200 ug of
reactor-Pu (2.5 g/Ci) inhaled or for each 1.0 g ingested. For
dispersal in a city, we may expect about one eventual fatality per 18
g of reactor-Pu dispersed; this effect is dominated by inhalation from
the initial cloud, with early resuspension effects somewhat less
important and long-term effects essentially negligible.

Abstract--Information on risks is collected from various sources and
converted into loss of life expectancy throughout life and in various
age ranges. Risks included are radiation, accidents of various types,
various diseases, overweight, tobacco use, alcohol and drugs, coffee,
saccharin, and The Pill, occupational risks, socioeconomic factors,
marital status, geography, serving in U.S. armed forces in Vietnam,
catastrophic events, energy production, and technology in general.
Information is also included on methods for reducing risks, risks in
individual actions, "very-hazardous" activities, and priorities and
perspective. Risks of natural and occupational radiation and exposure
to radioactivity from the nuclear industry are compared with risks of
similar or competing activities.

Abstract--The various lines of evidence that lead to current estimates
of the cancer risk from low-level radiation are reviewed. It is first
shown why it is very difficult to get direct experimental evidence, so
that much reliance is placed on extrapolation of data from high level
radiation. The evidence that a linear extrapolation is conservative,
i.e. more likely to over-estimate than to under-estimate the risk at
low levels, is extensively reviewed. The "new evidence" that has been
claimed to indicate that the linear extrapolation under-estimates
effects at low levels is examined. Complications in deriving risks
based on the linearity assumption are considered, and final estimates
from various sources are presented.

Abstract--With the publication of Nuclear "Theft: Risks and
Safeguards" by Willrich and Taylor, significant attention has been
focused by the media and the public on the possibility of fissile
materials being stolen by a terrorist organization and diverted to the
actual building, or the threat of building, of a nuclear explosive
device. The implication has been created that one or several
relatively inexperienced individuals could obtain the materials
necessary and fabricate a low-yield nuclear explosive. This article
examines these contentions in some detail. The safeguards and
use-denial methods presently used in the nuclear fuel cycle are
considered, and the difficulties they present in obtaining
significant amounts of strategic nuclear materials are examined. The
characteristics of reactor-grade plutonium are discussed, and the
difficulties associated with the assembly of an efficient nuclear
explosive device are outlined.

How Much Land Can Ten Billion People Spare for Nature?
by
Paul E. Waggoner, published by the Council for
Agricultural Science and Technology, 4420 West Lincoln Way, Ames, IA
50014-3447, Internet: b1cast@exnet.iastate.edu. A paper copy costs $15.00 +
$3.00 shipping. They have other reports whose titles seem
interesting. The web page CAST has
their press releases and some full text reports.

Here are two papers on the removal of chlorofluorocarbons from the
atmosphere.

Khalil, M. A. K. and R. A. Rassmussen, "The Potential of Soils as a Sink
of Chlorofluorocarbons and other Man-made Chlorocarbons", ...
copyright 1989, American Geophysical Union, paper no. 89GL00809,
(the copy I have doesn't give the name of the journal).

A significant result of these papers is that soils are an important
destroyer of chlorofluorocarbons. They estimate the amounts in
various reservoirs, their rates of flow between reservoirs and their
rates of destruction in the stratosphere and in soils.
(Apparently soils are but a minor destroyer of chlorofluorocarbons).

From the latter paper.

It seems that concentrations are not likely to reach the
peaks expected earlier and are likely to decline faster than
previously thought. The peak concentration is expectd to be about 275
pptv and may occur within the next 2 to 3 years.

This advertisement from Successful
Farming in 1921 should be contemplated by people doubting that
increased productivity is important in human terms.

Energy: Production, Consumption and Consequences is a 1990
report by the National Academy of Engineering. It contains many
relevant facts and opinions.

Herbert Inhaber and Harry Saunders have written
"Road to Nowhere" in The Sciences, November/December 1994
showing that energy conservation often backfires and leads to increased
energy consumption. Their Op-ED "It costs more to save energy", New
York Times, November 20, 1994 condenses the other paper.

Limits to Growth by Donella Meadows, Universe Books [1972] was
a popular prediction of doom. It is substantially refuted in
Models of doom; a critique of The limits to growth. Edited by H. S.
D. Cole [and others] With a reply by the authors of The limits to
growth.
The Limits to growth.
New York, Universe Books [1973]. Here is a
slightly more detailed discussion.

Extinction Rates, edited by John H. Lawton and Robert M. May, Oxford
University Press 1995, contains current scientific studies and references
others.

Carcinogens and Anti-Carcinogens in the Human Diet, National
Research Council, 1996 concludes that artificial carcinogens in the
diet are a minimal cause of cancer compared to natural carcinogens, and these
are a small cause of cancer except in a few cases like afflatoxins, which are
sometimes found in improperly stored peanuts and other nuts.

Food Energy and Society (revised
edition), edited by David Pimentel and Marcia Pimentel,
University Press of Colorado, 1996. See Review of "Food Energy and Society" for comments.

"The status of handling and storage techniques
for liquid hydrogen in motor vehicles." by W. Peschka in International
Journal of Hydrogen Energy, 12:753-764, 1987.

"State of the World" by Worldwatch Institute,
Worldwatch Institute, 1989.

A "letter to Nature" in the 1997 May 29
issue of Nature by Neville Nicholls of the Australian Bureau
of Meteorology Research Center is entitled "Increased Australian wheat
yield due to recent climate trends".