Politics Counts: Don’t Expect Super Tuesday to Offer Much Clarity

Two months in, the 2012 battle for the Republican presidential nomination has become a more protracted fight than many had expected or wanted. But as analysts wonder what the drawn-out fight means, a critical point has been lost.

The current scenario, with a fractured base on display, is not really surprising. In fact, in some ways it is the most obvious outcome.

The Republican Party’s triumph in the 2010 midterms was a measure of Republican antipathy toward President Barack Obama, but not a statement about what the party stands for. And now, as the Republican Party searches for consensus, there are structural factors pushing its back-and-forth nominating fight.

First, the party is trying to redefine itself. Without a president or a strong leader at its top, the various factions within the party are using the primaries to have a very public argument about its direction. Second, the way most of the primaries have divvied up convention delegates up to now – proportionally rather than “winner take all” – has allowed that fight to drag on.

And it is likely to go on for some time because sitting behind those two factors are some strong inherent tensions in the GOP’s base. Even without glancing at a single opinion poll, when one looks ahead to Super Tuesday’s set of 10 primaries, the outcome seems pretty clear. Wednesday morning will likely arrive with little clarity as to what happens next.

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Super Tuesday’s selection of states covers a wide range of national regions and those states hold a complex mix of types of place using Patchwork Nation’s demographic/geographic county breakdown as a guide. Some are better for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. Some have been strengths for former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum. And some hold promise for former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.

Massachusetts, for instance, is not only the state where Mr. Romney served as governor it is for the most part made up of wealthy Monied Burbs and Campus and Career counties. Those types have been good for him overall. They were instrumental to his wins in New Hampshire, Florida and in Michigan, where he won the most densely populated Burbs.

Georgia is not only home to Mr. Gingrich, it holds a large number of the counties Patchwork Nation calls Minority Central, those are counties with large African-American populations, but that also have strong social conservative elements, particularly among Republican voters. In South Carolina, the lone state Mr. Gingrich has won, he got the most votes and won the biggest percentage from that state’s Minority Central counties.

There are other more densely populated county types in Georgia, but those Minority Central counties are Mr. Gingrich’s trump card in the state. They are likely enough to counter any advantages Mr. Romney might be able draw from the state’s Monied Burbs, especially if they feature good turnout.

In Tennessee, more than half of the counties are what Patchwork Nation calls Evangelical Epicenters, socially conservative communities where Mr. Santorum has done well with his strong cultural conservative stances, particularly in recent weeks. In Missouri, Minnesota and Michigan, Mr. Santorum captured 50% or more of the vote out of the Evangelical Epicenter counties. He won all the Evangelical Epicenters in those states.

Tennessee also holds a good number of Service Worker Center counties that have been very good for Mr. Santorum.

That hodgepodge of candidate strengths and weaknesses is why so many eyes are on Ohio now. It is not only in the pivotal swing-voting Great Lakes region but it also it holds the second biggest cache of delegates on Super Tuesday and it’s diverse enough to offer a real test – no one can claim home field advantage as Mr. Romney did in Michigan last week.

But regardless of who wins Ohio, the proportional allocation of delegates will probably yield another close split decision – and that should surprise no one.

The reason the GOP nomination fight is dragging on is people in these different communities have very different ideas of what kind of person the nominee should be. Republicans in the wealthy Monied Burbs – especially the densely populated ones with many votes – ultimately have a different perspective of what “fixing the economy” entails than the blue-collar Service Worker Centers. The social conservatives in the Evangelical Epicenters and Minority Central have different concerns altogether. And there are candidates that work best for each of those types.

Normally, all those different ideas would give way to consensus, or resignation, as one candidate piled up delegates, but this year, with many states using proportional delegate allocation and an especially unsettled party, the different factions see no reason to fall in line.

That may change in the coming months as more of the contests switch to a winner-take-all format. The biggest winner-take-all contests don’t come until June (California and New Jersey). In the meantime, the factions within the Republican Party are likely to continue sparring at the ballot box with Super Tuesday as merely the latest round.

About Washington Wire

Washington Wire is one of the oldest standing features in American journalism. Since the Wire launched on Sept. 20, 1940, the Journal has offered readers an informal look at the capital. Now online, the Wire provides a succession of glimpses at what’s happening behind hot stories and warnings of what to watch for in the days ahead. The Wire is led by Reid J. Epstein, with contributions from the rest of the bureau. Washington Wire now also includes Think Tank, our home for outside analysis from policy and political thinkers.