Polling & predictions for the Holyrood 2016 Elections

TNS, 1st-24th of April

As anticipated, TNS released the data from their monthly poll today, and it makes for quite the contrast with what we saw from Ipsos MORI yesterday.

It’ll come as no surprise that SNP are still on course for an increased majority, and will most likely win almost every constituency, but it’s interesting that TNS have over the course of two polls gone from having by far the highest figures for SNP on the regional vote to being in line with everyone else. TNS themselves tend to report this as a decrease in support compared to previous polls, but I have just the tiniest feeling they might instead have realised that something in their methodology was a bit funny.

Most remarkably, following on from a streak of polls that put the two absolutely neck and neck, Labour not only record a comparatively healthy lead over the Tories, but this is their strongest performance in list vote polls this year. That may offer some comfort, but I’d suggest that no one in Labour HQ breathes too easily just yet. Looking back over the polling this year, TNS have actually been the most favourable to Labour – they’ve been the only agency that’s ever had them above 20% of the vote, finding them on 21% in their last two polls. So although 22% is a fair bit higher than the 17% and 18% they’ve been seeing recently with other pollsters, it’s probably not any kind of late recovery.

For all that the gap between Labour and the Tories is larger than in most recent polls, this is also a TNS high for Ruth Davidson’s team. Second place may yet go to Labour, but breaking into the 20’s in terms of seats would be a pretty good consolation prize.

Still looking likely to become the fourth largest party in parliament, the Greens are holding steady at the 8% we’ve come to expect as standard for them at this stage in the campaign. Thanks to strong Labour and Tory performances, this wouldn’t net them the 10 seats that figure has suggested for them in the past, falling just short of double figures on 9 seats. Nonetheless, that’d still be a record performance for the party.

After a run of polls indicating there is life in the Lib Dems yet, another disappointing result for them here. Although down only marginally on their 2011 vote, the tight competition for list seats from other parties would see them drop to 3 seats. I’m still minded to suggest they’ll win 5 or 6, but that’ll be no great recovery.

As ever, neither UKIP nor RISE are expected to win any seats. Again though, RISE have come ahead of UKIP in voting intention. That’s distinctly odd, seeing as most pollsters have UKIP on 3 or 4% – only yesterday’s Ipsos MORI also expects near invisibility for the ‘kippers. Of course, the usual notes about margin of error apply – for all intents and purposes, UKIP and RISE in this poll are united in their irrelevance.