NIGHTWATCH: AF Attacks up 70%, Iran Warns Israel

Afghanistan: A compilation of open source reports on all types of security incidents in Afghanistan in April 2013 indicates a more than 70 percent increase in incidents compared to March. In March 667 incidents were reported, compared to 1145 in April, which marks the start of the 2013 fighting period.

Security conditions remain the most dangerous in the Pashtun provinces of eastern, southeastern and southern Afghanistan.

Comment: The spike confirms the start of a new Taliban offensive, as announced last month. The level of attacks is just over half the number of incidents reported in June 2012, which was the peak of the fighting during US military surge. IEDs remain the most commonly used weapon, accounting for more than 30 percent of all incidents.

Iran-Syria-Israel: Iranian Deputy Chief of Staff Brigadier General Masoud Jazayeri said Iran will not allow Israel to harm the security of the region, and that a response will be made to the Israeli aggression in Syria, Ynet news reported 5 May.

Comment: Jazayeri provided no clues about the nature of the Iranian response, but his language in translation conveys specific intent to retaliate in some fashion. That is stronger than Syria’s response.