And that was a huge coup at the time...but puddin said many times that given the chance, she would never do it again.

It pretty much killed much of the speculation, the suspense, and the sheer FUN of figuring out what would happen next.

SO we never have again.

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"Our fans are pretty good. They don't give away too much. Sometimes people love dropping spoilers, but our fans are good. They tend to do it in such a way that doesn't ruin it for fans who don't want to know."--Phil Keoghan

I think it's worthwhile to take a mathematical look at the tea tasting. Let us start with these assumptions:

1. There were 1500 cups of tea.2. There were a very limited number of cups that matched the reference sample tasted in Kunming.3. For every 5 cups sampled, an individual went to the tea master.4. Some individuals used their sense of taste or smell to "beat the odds" and others did not; for the latter this became a needle-in-a-haystack task.

Let's say there were 8 matching cups among the 1500 ( I tried it with 10 and the results did not reflect the real situation well). That means the odds of an individual tasting each cup without special knowledge would be 0.5333%. If we say that it took 15 seconds to choose and sample a cup and another 15 seconds to get the result verified, then here is the way it would have gone on average assuming no smell or taste assistance:

#1 8 cups available 94 tastings to reach midpoint in average 28 minutes#2 7 cups available 107 tastings to reach midpoint in average 33 minutes#3 6 cups available 125 tastings to reach midpoint in average 38 minutes #4 5 cups available 150 tastings to reach midpoint in average 45 minutes#5 4 cups available 187.5 tastings to reach midpoint in average 56 minutes#6 3 cups available 250 tastings to reach midpoint in average 75 minutes#7 2 cups available 375 tastings to reach midpoint in average 112 minutes (a bit less than the 3+ hours it took Flight Time)#8 1 cup available 750 tastings to reach midpoint in average 225 minutes (3.75 hours, close to what it took Luke)

Teams using taste or smell to their advantage would have finished more quickly than indicated above, but the last 2 teams were in for a very difficult task.

Good eyes! With one camera per team, what the viewer sees are called "exposition hands." It's a continuity error--Jet, for example, is holding the clue with his left hand--but a very minor one. Also fwiw: depending on where the cabbie dropped them off for Thakur Bari, the teams would have been a block away from the tea stall--or right next door.

I think it's worthwhile to take a mathematical look at the tea tasting. Let us start with these assumptions:

1. There were 1500 cups of tea.2. There were a very limited number of cups that matched the reference sample tasted in Kunming.3. For every 5 cups sampled, an individual went to the tea master.4. Some individuals used their sense of taste or smell to "beat the odds" and others did not; for the latter this became a needle-in-a-haystack task.

Let's say there were 8 matching cups among the 1500 ( I tried it with 10 and the results did not reflect the real situation well). That means the odds of an individual tasting each cup without special knowledge would be 0.5333%. If we say that it took 15 seconds to choose and sample a cup and another 15 seconds to get the result verified, then here is the way it would have gone on average assuming no smell or taste assistance:

#1 8 cups available 94 tastings to reach midpoint in average 28 minutes#2 7 cups available 107 tastings to reach midpoint in average 33 minutes#3 6 cups available 125 tastings to reach midpoint in average 38 minutes #4 5 cups available 150 tastings to reach midpoint in average 45 minutes#5 4 cups available 187.5 tastings to reach midpoint in average 56 minutes#6 3 cups available 250 tastings to reach midpoint in average 75 minutes#7 2 cups available 375 tastings to reach midpoint in average 112 minutes (a bit less than the 3+ hours it took Flight Time)#8 1 cup available 750 tastings to reach midpoint in average 225 minutes (3.75 hours, close to what it took Luke)

Teams using taste or smell to their advantage would have finished more quickly than indicated above, but the last 2 teams were in for a very difficult task.

That's a nice start. But just a little too simplistic for the computer age. What you have not taken into account is that the number of cups is diminishing as the tasting goes on. This has a mathematical consequence that will help to reveal the real arrangement of teacups left out for the teams.

The main parameter at play is the number of "good" cups available to pick from. It does not have to be 8

I think 30 seconds is a better estimate of the time needed to select and drink each cup. Plus there is going to be some time used to run to the far end of the Hall to show the judge. I also upped the time needed to get checked by the judge: 30 seconds because, as we saw there was a bit of a queue. That 30 seconds is for 5 tastings as you did. I found that with 10 good cups out of the 1500 the teams could be expected to complete in the following times:

So after making these runs I concluded that in order to be consistent with the 3 hours and 3.75 hours for the 7th and 8th teams we needed to have the Roadblock set up with 10 good cups of tea on the tables.

To Luke's credit I suspect one or more of the three good cups he was supposed to have were inadvertently tasted but not taken for judging.

If you did lack a normal life and obsessively watched every frame of the episode you would know that there were 10 good cups out of about 1000. There is a shot showing the inside of the book the judge is holding and we see that it contains a sheet with 10 numbers ranging from 90 to 954. From that I guess there were about 1000 cups.

It would probably be possible to count the cups by running one of their camera pans in slow-motion. But that is a bit too much even for me.

And there is another couple of data points you need to take into consideration. The first two cups were found fairly quickly. Ron got his at 10.07 and Jet at 10.10. So they did not follow a random process.

I would guess that the first teams managed to smell their way to the right cups, but the longer teams stayed in the room the less sensitive their smell became due to sensory overload with all the teas and fruit.

What all the analysis above proves is that different assumptions lead to different results. It is fairly obvious that assuming 10 cups ( I actually did a model starting with that before switching to 8 cups because it was not realistic in conjunction with the other assumptions I used) and altering the time to taste per cups and altering the time to get an answer from the tea master affects the results of any model.

On the question of how many cups there were, the fact that the top number shown is 954 proves absolutely nothing. When you have 1500 cups of tea, that number can be in a range from 751 to 1500.

What all the analysis above proves is that different assumptions lead to different results. It is fairly obvious that assuming 10 cups ( I actually did a model starting with that before switching to 8 cups because it was not realistic in conjunction with the other assumptions I used) and altering the time to taste per cups and altering the time to get an answer from the tea master affects the results of any model.

On the question of how many cups there were, the fact that the top number shown is 954 proves absolutely nothing. When you have 1500 cups of tea, that number can be in a range from 751 to 1500.

I had the impression that the cups were being replaced at the beginning, though.

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The story so far:In the beginning the Universe was created.This has made a lot of people very angry and has been widely regarded as a bad move

What all the analysis above proves is that different assumptions lead to different results. It is fairly obvious that assuming 10 cups ( I actually did a model starting with that before switching to 8 cups because it was not realistic in conjunction with the other assumptions I used) and altering the time to taste per cups and altering the time to get an answer from the tea master affects the results of any model.

On the question of how many cups there were, the fact that the top number shown is 954 proves absolutely nothing. When you have 1500 cups of tea, that number can be in a range from 751 to 1500.

I had the impression that the cups were being replaced at the beginning, though.

I saw the waiters taking off the cups as they were emptied...but heck, we can all rewatch.

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"Our fans are pretty good. They don't give away too much. Sometimes people love dropping spoilers, but our fans are good. They tend to do it in such a way that doesn't ruin it for fans who don't want to know."--Phil Keoghan

1) Maybe Luke complained that there were no more good teacups on the tables. In response, production may have been compelled to check the empties to be sure. Did they find one and then then have to refill it and refill some more to mask the winning cup?

2) Luke was able, in the end, to bring a tray full of teacups to sit before the judge. He drank one, tipped the cup so the judge could see the number, waited for the determination, and repeated with the next cup. This was a far more efficient routine. Why was this not done earlier?

There was a similar situation in TAR6 where Hayden and Rebecca were trying to match their keys to specific padlocks out of thousands. It was so hopeless that production, twice, narrowed the field to guide them to the correct locks (learned on an RFF podcast, thanks Rob!).

I think that key and lock task in TAR6 was probably the hardest task in TAR history. TAR6 may be the hardest season as well considering that it also included the first haybale task (which was harder than the Switchback version, imo).

I think that key and lock task in TAR6 was probably the hardest task in TAR history. TAR6 may be the hardest season as well considering that it also included the first haybale task (which was harder than the Switchback version, imo).

I think that key and lock task in TAR6 was probably the hardest task in TAR history. TAR6 may be the hardest season as well considering that it also included the first haybale task (which was harder than the Switchback version, imo).

On a pure numbers standpoint, the Switchback was harder.

True, but another factor that must be counted when considering the two tasks is that the teams had a definite time limit in searching for the correct lock because of the gondola. When the gondola finally did leave the location, it stranded one team and forced them to quit the task.However, the hay bales task was physically strenuous. It truly is a tossup between the two.