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Thursday, December 27, 2012

The Destabilization of Pakistan

The Destabilization of Pakistan

Author’s NoteThis article first published five years ago in December 2007
focuses on the historical process of collapse of Pakistan as a nation
state following the assassination of Benazir Bhutto. Washington’s intent goes beyond the narrow objective of “regime
change”. The thrust of US foreign policy consists in weakening the
central government and fracturing the country. The ongoing US drone attacks under the banner of the “Global War on Terrorism” are part of that process. Washington had already envisaged a scenario of disintegration
and civil war. According to a 2005 report by the US National
Intelligence Council and the CIA, Pakistan is slated to become a “failed
state” by 2015, “as it would be affected by civil war, complete
Talibanisation and struggle for control of its nuclear weapons”. What is not mentioned in this report is that the destabilization
process (including the ongoing drone attacks) is part of a longstanding
US led intelligence operation. Michel Chossudovsky, December 27, 2012
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The Destabilization of Pakistan

By Prof Michel ChossudovskyGlobal Research, 30 December 2007
The assassination of Benazir Bhutto has created conditions which
contribute to the ongoing destabilization and fragmentation of Pakistan
as a Nation.

The process of US sponsored “regime change”, which normally consists
in the re-formation of a fresh proxy government under new leaders has
been broken. Discredited in the eyes of Pakistani public opinion,
General Pervez Musharaf cannot remain in the seat of political power.
But at the same time, the fake elections supported by the “international
community” scheduled for January 2008, even if they were to be carried
out, would not be accepted as legitimate, thereby creating a political
impasse.
There are indications that the assassination of Benazir Bhutto was anticipated by US officials:

“It has been known for months that the Bush-Cheney
administration and its allies have been maneuvering to strengthen their
political control of Pakistan, paving the way for the expansion and
deepening of the “war on terrorism” across the region.
Various American destabilization plans, known for months by officials
and analysts, proposed the toppling of Pakistan’s military…
The assassination of Bhutto appears to have been anticipated. There
were even reports of “chatter” among US officials about the possible
assassinations of either Pervez Musharraf or Benazir Bhutto, well before
the actual attempts took place. (Larry Chin, Global Research, 29 December 2007)

Political Impasse
“Regime change” with a view to ensuring continuity under military
rule is no longer the main thrust of US foreign policy. The regime of
Pervez Musharraf cannot prevail. Washington’s foreign policy course is
to actively promote the political fragmentation and balkanization of
Pakistan as a nation.
A new political leadership is anticipated but in all likelihood it
will take on a very different shape, in relation to previous US
sponsored regimes. One can expect that Washington will push for a
compliant political leadership, with no commitment to the national
interest, a leadership which will serve US imperial interests, while
concurrently contributing under the disguise of “decentralization”, to
the weakening of the central government and the fracture of Pakistan’s
fragile federal structure.
The political impasse is deliberate. It is part of an evolving US
foreign policy agenda, which favors disruption and disarray in the
structures of the Pakistani State. Indirect rule by the Pakistani
military and intelligence apparatus is to be replaced by more direct
forms of US interference, including an expanded US military presence
inside Pakistan.
This expanded military presence is also dictated by the Middle
East-Central Asia geopolitical situation and Washington’s ongoing plans
to extend the Middle East war to a much broader area.
The US has several military bases in Pakistan. It controls the
country’s air space. According to a recent report: “U.S. Special Forces
are expected to vastly expand their presence in Pakistan, as part of an
effort to train and support indigenous counter-insurgency forces and
clandestine counterterrorism units” (William Arkin, Washington Post,
December 2007).
The official justification and pretext for an increased military
presence in Pakistan is to extend the “war on terrorism”. Concurrently,
to justify its counterrorism program, Washington is also beefing up its
covert support to the “terrorists.”The Balkanization of Pakistan
Already in 2005, a report by the US National Intelligence Council and
the CIA forecast a “Yugoslav-like fate” for Pakistan “in a decade with
the country riven by civil war, bloodshed and inter-provincial
rivalries, as seen recently in Balochistan.” (Energy Compass, 2 March
2005). According to the NIC-CIA, Pakistan is slated to become a “failed
state” by 2015, “as it would be affected by civil war, complete
Talibanisation and struggle for control of its nuclear weapons”. (Quoted
by former Pakistan High Commissioner to UK, Wajid Shamsul Hasan, Times
of India, 13 February 2005):

“Nascent democratic reforms will produce little change in
the face of opposition from an entrenched political elite and radical
Islamic parties. In a climate of continuing domestic turmoil, the
Central government’s control probably will be reduced to the Punjabi
heartland and the economic hub of Karachi,” the former diplomat quoted
the NIC-CIA report as saying.
Expressing apprehension, Hasan asked, “are our military rulers
working on a similar agenda or something that has been laid out for them
in the various assessment reports over the years by the National
Intelligence Council in joint collaboration with CIA?” (Ibid)

Continuity, characterized by the dominant role of the Pakistani
military and intelligence has been scrapped in favor of political
breakup and balkanization.
According to the NIC-CIA scenario, which Washington intends to carry
out: “Pakistan will not recover easily from decades of political and
economic mismanagement, divisive policies, lawlessness, corruption and
ethnic friction,” (Ibid) .
The US course consists in fomenting social, ethnic and factional
divisions and political fragmentation, including the territorial breakup
of Pakistan. This course of action is also dictated by US war plans in
relation to both Afghanistan and Iran.
This US agenda for Pakistan is similar to that applied throughout the
broader Middle East Central Asian region. US strategy, supported by
covert intelligence operations, consists in triggering ethnic and
religious strife, abetting and financing secessionist movements while
also weakening the institutions of the central government.
The broader objective is to fracture the Nation State and redraw the borders of Iraq, Iran, Syria, Afghanistan and Pakistan.Pakistan’s Oil and Gas reserves
Pakistan’s extensive oil and gas reserves, largely located in
Balochistan province, as well as its pipeline corridors are considered
strategic by the Anglo-American alliance, requiring the concurrent
militarization of Pakistani territory.
Balochistan comprises more than 40 percent of Pakistan’s land mass,
possesses important reserves of oil and natural gas as well as extensive
mineral resources.
The Iran-India pipeline corridor is slated to transit through
Balochistan. Balochistan also possesses a deap sea port largely financed
by China located at Gwadar, on the Arabian Sea, not far from the
Straits of Hormuz where 30 % of the world’s daily oil supply moves by
ship or pipeline. (Asia News.it, 29 December 2007)
Pakistan has an estimated 25.1 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of proven
gas reserves of which 19 trillion are located in Balochistan. Among
foreign oil and gas contractors in Balochistan are BP, Italy’s ENI,
Austria’s OMV, and Australia’s BHP. It is worth noting that Pakistan’s
State oil and gas companies, including PPL which has the largest stake
in the Sui oil fields of Balochistan are up for privatization under
IMF-World Bank supervision.
According to the Oil and Gas Journal (OGJ), Pakistan had proven oil
reserves of 300 million barrels, most of which are located in
Balochistan. Other estimates place Balochistan oil reserves at an
estimated six trillion barrels of oil reserves both on-shore and
off-shore (Environment News Service, 27 October 2006) .Covert Support to Balochistan Separatists
Balochistan’s strategic energy reserves have a bearing on the
separatist agenda. Following a familiar pattern, there are indications
that the Baloch insurgency is being supported and abetted by Britain and
the US.
The Baloch national resistance movement dates back to the late 1940s,
when Balochistan was invaded by Pakistan. In the current geopolitical
context, the separatist movement is in the process of being hijacked by
foreign powers.
British intelligence is allegedly providing covert support to
Balochistan separatists (which from the outset have been repressed by
Pakistan’s military). In June 2006, Pakistan’s Senate Committee on
Defence accused British intelligence of “abetting the insurgency in the
province bordering Iran” [Balochistan]..(Press Trust of India, 9 August
2006). Ten British MPs were involved in a closed door session of
the Senate Committee on Defence regarding the alleged support of
Britain’s Secret Service to Baloch separatists (Ibid). Also of
relevance are reports of CIA and Mossad support to Baloch rebels in
Iran and Southern Afghanistan.
It would appear that Britain and the US are supporting both sides.
The US is providing American F-16 jets to the Pakistani military, which
are being used to bomb Baloch villages in Balochistan. Meanwhile,
British alleged covert support to the separatist movement (according to
the Pakistani Senate Committee) contributes to weakening the central
government.
The stated purpose of US counter-terrorism is to provide covert
support as well as as training to “Liberation Armies” ultimately with a
view to destabilizing sovereign governments. In Kosovo, the training of
the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) in the 1990s had been entrusted to a
private mercenary company, Military Professional Resources Inc (MPRI),
on contract to the Pentagon.
The BLA bears a canny resemblance to Kosovo’s KLA, which was financed
by the drug trade and supported by the CIA and Germany’s Bundes
Nachrichten Dienst (BND).
The BLA emerged shortly after the 1999 military coup. It has no
tangible links to the Baloch resistance movement, which developed since
the late 1940s. An aura of mystery surrounds the leadership of the BLA.Baloch population in Pink: In Iran, Pakistan and Southern Afghanistan
Washington favors the creation of a “Greater Balochistan” which would
integrate the Baloch areas of Pakistan with those of Iran and possibly
the Southern tip of Afghanistan (See Map above), thereby leading to a
process of political fracturing in both Iran and Pakistan.

“The US is using Balochi nationalism for staging an
insurgency inside Iran’s Sistan-Balochistan province. The ‘war on
terror’ in Afghanistan gives a useful political backdrop for the
ascendancy of Balochi militancy” (See Global Research, 6 March 2007).

Military scholar Lieutenant Colonel Ralph Peters writing in the June 2006 issue of The Armed Forces Journal,
suggests, in no uncertain terms that Pakistan should be broken up,
leading to the formation of a separate country: “Greater Balochistan”
or “Free Balochistan” (see Map below). The latter would incorporate the
Pakistani and Iranian Baloch provinces into a single political entity.
In turn, according to Peters, Pakistan’s North West Frontier Province
(NWFP) should be incorporated into Afghanistan “because of its
linguistic and ethnic affinity”. This proposed fragmentation, which
broadly reflects US foreign policy, would reduce Pakistani territory to
approximately 50 percent of its present land area. (See map). Pakistan
would also loose a large part of its coastline on the Arabian Sea.
Although the map does not officially reflect Pentagon doctrine, it
has been used in a training program at NATO’s Defense College for senior
military officers. This map, as well as other similar maps, have most
probably been used at the National War Academy as well as in military
planning circles. (See Mahdi D. Nazemroaya, Global Research, 18 November 2006)
“Lieutenant-Colonel Peters was last posted, before he retired to the
Office of the Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence, within the U.S.
Defence Department, and has been one of the Pentagon’s foremost authors
with numerous essays on strategy for military journals and U.S. foreign
policy.” (Ibid)Map: click to enlarge
It is worth noting that secessionist tendencies are not limited to
Balochistan. There are separatist groups in Sindh province, which are
largely based on opposition to the Punjabi-dominated military regime of
General Pervez Musharraf (For Further details see Selig Harrisson, Le Monde diplomatique, October 2006)“Strong Economic Medicine”: Weakening Pakistan’s Central Government
Pakistan has a federal structure based on federal provincial
transfers. Under a federal fiscal structure, the central government
transfers financial resources to the provinces, with a view to
supporting provincial based programs. When these transfers are frozen as
occurred in Yugoslavia in January 1990, on orders of the IMF, the
federal fiscal structure collapses:

“State revenues that should have gone as transfer
payments to the republics [of the Yugoslav federation] went instead to
service Belgrade’s debt … . The republics were largely left to their own
devices. … The budget cuts requiring the redirection of federal
revenues towards debt servicing, were conducive to the suspension of
transfer payments by Belgrade to the governments of the Republics and
Autonomous Provinces.
In one fell swoop, the reformers had engineered the final collapse of
Yugoslavia’s federal fiscal structure and mortally wounded its federal
political institutions. By cutting the financial arteries between
Belgrade and the republics, the reforms fueled secessionist tendencies
that fed on economic factors as well as ethnic divisions, virtually
ensuring the de facto secession of the republics. (Michel Chossudovsky,
The Globalization of Poverty and the New World Order, Second Edition,
Global Research, Montreal, 2003, Chapter 17.)

It is by no means accidental that the 2005 National Intelligence
Council- CIA report had predicted a “Yugoslav-like fate” for Pakistan
pointing to the impacts of “economic mismanagement” as one of the causes
of political break-up and balkanization.
“Economic mismanagement” is a term used by the Washington based
international financial institutions to describe the chaos which results
from not fully abiding by the IMF’s Structural Adjustment Program. In
actual fact, the “economic mismanagement” and chaos is the outcome of
IMF-World Bank prescriptions, which invariably trigger hyperinflation
and precipitate indebted countries into extreme poverty.
Pakistan has been subjected to the same deadly IMF “economic
medicine” as Yugoslavia: In 1999, in the immediate wake of the coup
d’Etat which brought General Pervez Musharaf to the helm of the military
government, an IMF economic package, which included currency
devaluation and drastic austerity measures, was imposed on
Pakistan. Pakistan’s external debt is of the order of US$40 billion. The
IMF’s “debt reduction” under the package was conditional upon the
sell-off to foreign capital of the most profitable State owned
enterprises (including the oil and gas facilities in Balochistan) at
rockbottom prices .
Musharaf’s Finance Minister was chosen by Wall Street, which is not
an unusual practice. The military rulers appointed at Wall Street’s
behest, a vice-president of Citigroup, Shaukat Aziz, who at the time was
head of CitiGroup’s Global Private Banking. (See WSWS.org, 30 October 1999). CitiGroup is among the largest commercial foreign banking institutions in Pakistan.
There are obvious similarities in the nature of US covert
intelligence operations applied in country after country in different
parts of the so-called “developing World”. These covert operation,
including the organisation of military coups, are often synchronized
with the imposition of IMF-World Bank macro-economic reforms. In this
regard, Yugoslavia’s federal fiscal structure collapsed in 1990 leading
to mass poverty and heightened ethnic and social divisions. The US and
NATO sponsored “civil war” launched in mid-1991 consisted in coveting
Islamic groups as well as channeling covert support to separatist
paramilitary armies in Bosnia, Kosovo and Macedonia.
A similar “civil war” scenario has been envisaged for Pakistan by the
National Intelligence Council and the CIA: From the point of view of
US intelligence, which has a longstanding experience in abetting
separatist “liberation armies”, “Greater Albania” is to Kosovo what
“Greater Balochistan” is to Pakistan’s Southeastern Balochistan
province. Similarly, the KLA is Washington’s chosen model, to be
replicated in Balochistan province.The Assassination of Benazir Bhutto
Benazir Bhutto was assassinated in Rawalpindi, no ordinary city.
Rawalpindi is a military city host to the headquarters of the Pakistani
Armed Forces and Military Intelligence (ISI). Ironically Bhutto was
assassinated in an urban area tightly controlled and guarded by the
military police and the country’s elite forces. Rawalpindi is swarming
with ISI intelligence officials, which invariably infiltrate political
rallies. Her assassination was not a haphazard event.
Without evidence, quoting Pakistan government sources, the Western
media in chorus has highlighted the role of Al-Qaeda, while also
focusing on the the possible involvement of the ISI.
What these interpretations do not mention is that the ISI continues
to play a key role in overseeing Al Qaeda on behalf of US intelligence.
The press reports fail to mention two important and well documented
facts:

1) the ISI maintains close ties to the CIA. The ISI is virtually an appendage of the CIA.
2) Al Qaeda is a creation of the CIA. The ISI provides covert support to Al Qaeda, acting on behalf of US intelligence.

The involvement of either Al Qaeda and/or the ISI would suggest that
US intelligence was cognizant and/or implicated in the assassination
plot.