NFL Pick: Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers

The Oakland Raiders are in San Diego for their week 7 matchup versus division rivals the San Diego Chargers. The Chargers have gotten the best of the Raiders over the past few seasons winning 6 of the last 7 meetings but they have covered the spread in just 1 of the last 5 meetings.

Head to Head Trends

Underdog is 11-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings. Under is 13-3-1 in the last 17 meetings in San Diego.

San Diego Chargers (-3.5)

The San Diego Chargers are 3rd in the AFC West with a 2-4 record. The Chargers have the best offense in the league when talking just about yards gained averaging 433 yards per game but all those yards have turned into just 22.7 points per game and its points that win games not yards. On defense the Chargers are not all that bad allowing 354 yards per game but they are allowing 26.8 points per game so again the yards versus points are just not converting for Chargers.

Philip Rivers is 14-4 versus the Raiders since becoming a starter for the Chargers

Chargers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games. Chargers are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 vs. AFC.

Oakland Raiders (+3.5)

The Oakland Raiders are 2nd in the AFC West with a 2-3 record and even though they might be second in the division they literally have no chance of winning the division with the Broncos who are already 6-0 this season. The Raiders have one of the poorer offense in the league averaging just 338 yards and 21.4 points per game. The thing is most of the teams below the Raiders in offensive output actually have decent defenses unlike the Raiders who are allowing 382 yards and 24.8 points per game.

Oakland Raiders Trends

Raiders are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. Raiders are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

Conclusion

I’m going with the San Diego Chargers over the Raiders in this one. The Raiders might have the slightly better record but I certainly don’t think they are the better team. If the Changers can start turning some of those yards on offense into points the Raiders just don’t have enough firepower to keep up.