Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Swanson vs. Lobov’

Iaquinta vs. Sanchez

Lightweights

THE MATCHUP: Another squash match sets up shop in
the co-main event slot. Sanchez is on a nice little run right now.
After losing to every top fighter he faced from 2012 to 2015 --
Yes, you can include Ross
Pearson on the list of losses -- Sanchez had a strong showing
against an admittedly depleted Jim Miller in
2016. Joe
Lauzon prevented that from turning into a streak with a
stunning first-round knockout in Sanchez’s next fight, but “The
Ultimate Fighter 1” winner went on to beat Marcin Held
in November.

Iaquinta has been at odds with the UFC for two years now, and the
resultant layoff is the only thing that gives Sanchez a twinkle of
hope in this fight. If Iaquinta returns in good form, however, he
will be a nightmarish matchup for “The Nightmare.” Iaquinta is a
boxer first and foremost and a good one, too. “Raging Al” does have
a tendency to square up and hang out a little too long in punching
range, but he takes small angles very well to negate some of the
defensive liabilities created by these habits. The angles also
allow Iaquinta to set up his own punches, which almost always fly
in combinations. Iaquinta attacks the body with bad intentions and
occasionally sets up chopping low kicks with his hands. Iaquinta
will occasionally shoot for takedowns, though is more likely to
fake a snatch single in order to keep his opponent guessing.
Defensively, he stops 84 percent of the takedowns attempted on him.
He has not been successfully taken down since his fight with
Kevin
Lee in 2014.

There is some cause for concern as far as Iaquinta’s submission
defense is concerned. Though he is a capable technician on the
ground, being trained by the venerable Matt Serra,
Iaquinta seems to suffer from the same problem that used to plague
Matt
Brown. He grapples impatiently, knowing that his chances are
best on the feet, and gives up bad positions. Mitch
Clarke and Michael
Chiesa, both dangerous submission grapplers, managed to submit
Iaquinta with chokes. This represents Sanchez’s clearest path to
victory. He will have a difficult time getting Iaquinta down, but
grappling skill is the one aspect of Sanchez’s game that has not
seriously eroded over time. Still, it has been many years since he
last submitted an opponent, and he tends to spend more time
charging forward on the feet than controlling opponents from half
guard. Sanchez’s striking is as wooden as ever, and his chin will
be a ripe target for Iaquinta’s fists. While Sanchez could once
brag that he had never been knocked out, Lauzon put an end to that
idea for good.

THE ODDS: Iaquinta (-400), Sanchez (+315)

THE PICK: Sanchez has two paths to victory here.
The first is to relentlessly pursue the takedown and control
Iaquinta on the floor, hopefully setting up a submission. Given
Iaquinta’s takedown defense, footwork and vicious counterpunching,
this does not seem likely. The second will only come to fruition if
Iaquinta’s layoff has affected his abilities. If Iaquinta slows
down significantly in the latter half of the fight, Sanchez’s
nonstop pace and reckless aggression could open a few doors for the
ancient veteran. Even then, Iaquinta will not be easy to hurt on
the feet, and he will still have opportunities to use his
calculated counterpunches. Sanchez clearly still has it in him to
surprise, but his methods are too obvious and his body too worn
down to have any chance of catching a well-prepared Iaquinta
off-guard. Iaquinta by second-round TKO is the pick.