2019 Global Forecast

As the end of the year approaches, businesses start planning ahead and wondering what the next twelve months has in store . . .

Recent trends suggest that commercial success will be tied increasingly to purpose, ethics and politics, with consumers being more discerning about where to use their purchasing power. Certainly there are some seismic shifts on the horizon around AI, and technology-led disruption will start to put people back at the heart of the business.

As for politics, will the UK hit its Brexit deadline of 11pm UK time on Friday, 29 March 2019, giving way to an era of concrete planning and delivery around Britain's relationship with Europe? Will Trump last until the end of 2019? Will a slow-down in China create ripples across the emerging world and into Europe?

And, most importantly for us - how will all of these issues affect Japan, which is eagerly poised to host the G20 and the Rugby World Cup, as well as roll out the historic abdiction and succession of the Emperor?

The country is in the middle of its longest growth stretch in decades and 2019 looks like a crunch year, when growth will begin to slow down, according to an International Monetary Fund forecast. This will come just as Shinzo Abe's government raises the sales tax to 10 percent in October 2019 after twice delaying the hike. Around the same time the central bank has forecast it will be approaching its inflation target, which means it might start winding down stimulus. Restoring fiscal health is seen as an urgent yet difficult task for the debt-ridden country, given that the rapid aging of the population means swelling social security expenses such as medical costs and pensions.

To make sense out of the above - as well as other geo-political and economic issues - join us for a lunchtime talk followed by an arm-chair discussion, led by Florian Kohlbacher, Director for The Economist Intelligence Unit, Japan and Korea, who promises to provide some context to 2019.