Tuesday, January 31, 2012

The long awaited transfer of power over the Kurdistan Regional Government’s (KRG) premiership is about to happen. In January 2011, it was announced that the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) would be taking the prime minister’s position from the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK). Nechirvan Barzani of the KDP who held the position previously will replace current Premier Barham Saleh. Saleh had a tough two years in office, with his PUK party facing defections, the emergence of the Change List opposition group, and demonstrations in its base province Sulaymaniya.

Nechirvan Barzani of the Kurdistan Democratic Party is about to return as the Kurdish prime minister (KRG)

Saleh’s time as the KRG’s prime minister will go down as a turbulent one. His PUK lost standing in the region, which led to it losing seats in the regional parliamentary elections and protests in its base of Sulaymaniya. He was not able to reverse these trends, and gain more support for his party. Now he gives way to Nechirvan Barzani who will further entrench the KDP’s power. Rather than ushering in a new administration and new policies, Barzani will simply be more of the same.

Monday, January 30, 2012

Iraqi Natonal Movement spokeswoman Maysoun al-Damlouji announcing the end of the list's boycott of parliament (Reuters)

The Iraqi National Movement (INM) gave up on its boycott of parliament after a meeting on January 29, 2012. Official spokesmen said the decision was made to improve the political atmosphere in the country, and to prepare the way for a planned national conference. Behind the scenes one leader anonymously said that the real reason was that the list was about to break-up if it continued on with its course of action. The party was deeply divided over not attending the legislature and the cabinet. The hopes for a successful meeting of national leaders is also not likely to resolve anything either. That shows that the National Movement has overplayed its hand once again due to its bad leadership.

On January 28, 2012, the major leaders of the Iraqi National Movement (INM) met to discuss their stance towards the government. Those in attendance included Iyad Allawi, Speaker of Parliament Osama Nujafi, Finance Minister Rafi Issawi, and Deputy Premier Saleh al-Mutlaq. The major topic of discussion was whether they would maintain their boycott of parliament. At first, the list denied that it would return to the legislature, but the next day it revealed that it actually would. The official explanation was that they wanted to help with the planned national conference of the country’s leaders, which is supposed to work out all of the political differences between the major parties. One senior leader however, told Reuters that it was because the list was about to break-up if it didn’t change direction. The main players within the INM had different positions on how to deal with their problems with Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. Allawi and Vice President Tariq Hashemi were for leaving the government, and moving into the opposition. Speaker Nujafi and Jamal Karbuli, who leads the Solution Movement within the INM felt that they should stay part of the national coalition, and Deputy Premier Mutlaq was split between the two sides. At the beginning of January, six members of the National Movement also attended parliament, and were kicked out of the INM as a result. The list has always been a large and unwieldy collection of parties. Maliki was able to play upon these differences when putting the government together by giving many of the individual leaders positions within the government to buy them off, while excluding Allawi. The boycott was also ineffective, because the INM did not have enough seats to stop parliament from having a quorum to conduct business. Important laws like the 2012 budget were coming up as well, which all parties will benefit from as they run ministries that they use to dole out patronage and projects to their followers. All together, this put tremendous pressure upon the National Movement to give up its boycott.

The Iraqi National Movement is supposed to have another meeting to decide what to do with not attending the cabinet. That has been poorly followed by the list, with up to five of the nine INM ministers attending the cabinet at one time or another. Again, the ministers hold actual power with large staffs and budgets to administer. Those were too much for the majority of INM members to give up, and thus they went to sessions of the cabinet despite the directions of their list. That boycott is likely to collapse officially as well.

Finally, the hopes of a successful conference are disappearing with every day. On January 27 for example, Moqtada al-Sadr said he would not attend, because he was a religious figure, not a politician. Allawi has called for all of the major leaders to be there, so this was another major setback. Not only that, but there is no reason for Maliki to compromise if the meeting ever takes place. The INM does not have the votes to hold a no confidence vote against him, they do not have the seats in parliament to stop it from holding a quorum, and half the INM ministers are showing up to the cabinet anyway. The National Movement simply does not have any leverage in this dispute with Maliki.

The Iraqi National Movement ended up winning the most seats in the 2010 parliamentary elections, but has been consistently outmaneuvered since then. Its major leaders were each given top positions in the new government, and left Allawi out in the cold hoping for a committee to be formed, which he would lead, but that has been completely dropped. Since then, Allawi has been left to constantly snipe at Maliki, while he barely attends parliament, and spends large amounts of time outside the country. This latest crisis was badly played by the list once again. Its responses to Mailiki’s call for a no confidence vote against Deputy Premier Mutlaq and the arrest warrant for Vice President Hashemi have been completely ineffective. Not only that, but they have shown how deeply divided and fragile the list is. That has left Maliki in the enviable position of simply waiting out the crisis knowing full well that the INM could not keep up its tactics, and in this case, would likely come out even weaker than before. The final episode of this drama has not been played out, but it shows that the party may do better without following Allawi and Mutlaq the next time something like this happen, which it definitely will given the personal animosities amongst Iraq’s leading politicians.

SOURCES

AIN, “Majority of IS members supports withdraw from Government,” 1/26/12

Thursday, January 26, 2012

From 1990 to 2003, Iraq was under United Nations sanctions for its invasion of Kuwait. As a result, the country’s living standards and infrastructure all deteriorated as it was cut off from many trade goods, and was still suffering the affects of the 1991 Gulf War. It has been almost nine years since those restrictions were lifted. Despite its constant political disputes and the sectarian civil war that lasted from 2005-2008, Iraq is finally beginning to show some signs of recovery. Now seems as good as time as any to see how it is doing in comparison to other countries in the Middle East and North Africa. Iraq finds itself with an incredibly young and growing population, but with persistent health issues, and an oil dependent economy that needs to be diversified if it hopes to provide jobs and income for its people.

Out of the 17 countries in the Middle East and North Africa, Iraq has the fifth largest population at approximately 30,399,572 in 2011. Only Morocco, Algeria, Iran, and Egypt have more people. Having a large population in the region is both a cost and a potential benefit. It can provide a large workforce, but at the same time huge demands upon the government to provide services and jobs for them.

Population 2011

Egypt 82,079,636

Iran 77,891,220

Algeria 34,994,937

Morocco 31,968,361

Iraq 30,399,572

Saudi Arabia 26,131,703

Yemen 24,133,492

Syria 22,517,750 (2010)

Tunisia 10,629,186

Israel 7,473,052 (2010)

Libya 6,597,960

Jordan 6,508,271

UAE 5,148,664

Oman 3,027,959

Kuwait 2,595,628

Bahrain 1,214,705

Qatar 848,016

Iraq’s large populace is incredibly young, and getting younger. It has the second youngest median age in the region at 20.9 years old. Only Yemen at 18.1 has a lower median figure. Incredibly, the country is getting younger, with 38% of Iraqis only 14 years or under, a 2.399% population growth rate, the fourth highest in the region, and 28.81 births per 1,000 people, which is the second highest. This is a trend in much of the Middle East and North Africa with 13 out of 17 countries having a median age under 30.

Median Age 2011

Yemen 18.1

Iraq 20.9

Syria 21.9

Jordan 22.1

Oman 24.1

Egypt 24.3

Libya 24.5

Saudi Arabia 25.3

Iran 26.8

Morocco 26.9

Algeria 27.6

Kuwait 28.5

Israel 29.4

Tunisia 30

UAE 30.2

Qatar 30.8

Bahrain 30.9

2011

Age Structure

Yemen

0-14 43%

15-64 54.4%

65+ 2.6%

Iraq

0-14 38%

15-64 58.9%

65+ 3.1%

Jordan

0-14 35.3%

15-64 59.9%

65_ 4.8%

Syria

0-14 35.2%

15-64 61%

65_ 3.8%

Libya

0-14 32.8%

15-64 62.7%

65+ 4.6%

Egypt

0-14 32.7%

15-64 62.8%

65+ 4.5%

Oman

0-14 31.2%

15-64 65.7%

65+ 3.1%

Saudi Arabia

0-14 29.4%

15-64 67.6%

65+ 3%

Morocco

0-14 27.8%

15-64 66.1%

65+ 6.1%

Israel

0-14 27.6%

15-64 62.2%

65+ 10.1%

Kuwait

0-14 25.8%

15-64 72.2%

65+ 2%

Algeria

0-14 24.2%

15-64 70.6%

65+ 5.2%

Iran

0-14 24.1%

15-64 70.9%

65+ 5%

Tunisia

0-14 23.2%

15-64 69.3%

65+ 7.5%

Qatar

0-14 21.8%

15-64 76.7%

65+ 1.5%

Bahrain

0-14 20.5%

15-64 77%

65+ 2.6%

UAE

0-14 20.4%

15-64 78.7%

65+ 0.9%

Pop. Growth Rate

Qatar

0.81%

Syria

0.913%

Tunisia

0.978%

Jordan

0.984%

Morocco

1.067%

Algeria

1.173%

Iran

1.248%

Saudi Arabia

1.536%

Israel

1.584%

Egypt

1.96%

Kuwait

1.986%

Oman

2.023%

Libya

2.064%

Iraq

2.399%

Yemen

2.647%

Bahrain

2.814%

UAE

3.282%

2011

Birth Rate

Bahrain

14.64 per 1,000

Qatar

15.48 per 1,000

UAE

15.87 per 1,000

Algeria

16.69 per 1,000

Tunisia

17.4 per 1,000

Iran

18.55 per 1,000

Morocco

19.19 per 1,000

Israel

19.24 per 1,000

Saudi Arabia

19.34 per 1,000

Kuwait

21.32 per 1,000

Syria

23.99 per 1,000

Libya

24.04 per 1,000

Oman

24.15 per 1,000

Egypt

24.63 per 1,000

Jordan

26.79 per 1,000

Iraq

28.81 per 1,000

Yemen

33.49 per 1,000

Iraq is towards the bottom in terms of urbanization at 66%. That is tied with Algeria for 12 out of the 17 regional nations. In comparison, most of the people in Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States and Israel are anywhere from 82%-98% living in cities. With two famous rivers the Tigris and Euphrates running through it, and a history of agriculture dating back to the birth of civilization it should be no surprise that Iraq still has lots of people living in the countryside. Unfortunately, that lifestyle is running into huge environmental problems with a recent drought lasting several years, increasing salinization, and neighboring countries building dams that will only decrease the amount of water flowing through the country in coming years.

Urbanization

Yemen

32%

Egypt

43.4%

Syria

56%

Morocco

58%

Iraq

66%

Algeria

66%

Tunisia

67%

Iran

71%

Oman

73%

Libya

78%

Jordan

79%

Saudi Arabia

82%

UAE

84%

Bahrain

89%

Israel

92%

Qatar

96%

Kuwait

98%

One major problem that resulted from the international sanctions was the destruction of Iraq’s health care system. Many medicines and modern equipment were denied to the country under the guise that they could be used for the creation of weapons of mass destruction. It is just beginning to emerge from this period with the free flow of trade, and is trying to make up for those lost years. As a sign of that, it spends the highest percentage of its GDP, 9.7%, of any country in the Middle East and North Africa on health.

Health Expenditures

Syria

2.9% of GDP (2009)

Iran

3.9% of GDP (2009)

Qatar

2.5% of GDP

UAE

2.8% of GDP

Oman

3% of GDP

Bahrain

4.5% of GDP

Jordan

4.5% of GDP (2009)

Saudi Arabia

5% of GDP (2009)

Morocco

5.5% of GDP

Yemen

5.6% of GDP

Algeria

5.8% of GDP (2009)

Tunisia

6.2% of GDP

Egypt

6.4% of GDP (2009)

Libya

6.6% of GDP (2009)

Kuwait

6.8% of GDP (2009)

Israel

9.5% of GDP (2009)

Iraq

9.7% of GDP (2009)

The affects of the 1990s are still visible. Iraq ranks fifth worst in terms of maternal mortality rate with 75 deaths per 100,000 live births. Only Egypt, 83 deaths, Morocco, 110 deaths, Algeria, 120 deaths, and Yemen at a whopping 210 deaths, did worse. In contrast, only 10 mothers die on average per 100,000 births in the United Arab Emirates, only 8 in Qatar, and 7 in Israel.

Maternal Mortality Rates

Kuwait

NA

Israel

7 deaths per 100,000 live births

Qatar

8 deaths per 100,000 live births

UAE

10 death per 100,000 live births

Bahrain

19 death per 100,000 per live births

Oman

20 deaths per 100,000 live births

Saudi Arabia

24 deaths per 100,000 live births

Iran

30 deaths per 100,000 live births

Syria

46 deaths per 100,000 live births

Jordan

59 deaths per 100,000 live births

Tunisia

60 deaths per 1,000 live births

Libya

64 deaths per 100,000 live births

Iraq

75 deaths per 100,000 live births

(2008)

Egypt

82 deaths per 100,000 live births

Morocco

110death per 100,000 live births (2008)

Algeria

120 deaths per 100,000 live births (2008)

Yemen

210 deaths per 100,000 live births

Iraq didn’t do much better with its infant mortality rate. It has the third worse rate at 41.68 deaths per 1,000 live births. Iran with 42.26 deaths and Yemen at 55.11 were at the bottom of the region. Again, these are both signs that Iraq still has a long way to go to repair its health care system.

Infant Mortality Rate

Israel

4.12 deaths per 1,000 births

Kuwait

8.07 deaths per 1,000 live births

Bahrain

10.43 deaths per 1,000 live births

UAE

11.94 deaths per 1,000 live births

Qatar

12.05 death per 1,000 live births

Oman

15.47 deaths per 1,000 live births

Syria

15.62 deaths per 1,000 live births

Saudi Arabia

16.16 deaths per 1,000 live births

Jordan

16.42 deaths per 1,000 live births

Libya

20.09 deaths per 1,000 live births

Egypt

25.2 deaths per 1,000 live births

Algeria

25.82 deaths per 1,000 live births

Tunisia

25.92 deaths per 1,000 live births

Morocco

27.53 deaths per 1,000 live births

Iraq

41.68 death per 1,000 live births

Iran

42.26 deaths per 1,000 live births

Yemen

55.11 deaths per 1,000 live births

A third sign of its problems is Iraq’s low life expectancy. Iraqis live an average 70.55 years. That was the third lowest in the region. Yemen, 63.74, and Iran 70.06 had the shortest average life spans, while Bahrain, 78.15, Jordan, 80.05, and Israel, 80.96, had the highest. That showed that while Iraq has many children, they will on average, not live as long as many of their neighbors. The civil conflict and sanctions were two major factors that put Iraq towards the bottom in this category.

2011

Life Expectancy

Yemen

63.74

Iran

70.06

Iraq

70.55

Egypt

72.66

Saudi Arabia

74.11

Oman

74.22

Algeria

74.5

Syria

74.69

Tunisia

75.01

Qatar

75.7

Morocco

75.9

UAE

76.51

Libya

77.065

Kuwait

77.09

Bahrain

78.15

Jordan

80.05

Israel

80.96

Serviceable water and sanitation facilities can have a huge impact upon a country’s health as they help control the spread of diseases and sickness. Again, Iraq is almost at the bottom in both of these categories. Only 79% of Iraqis drink from an improved drinking source, which was third worse in the region, and only 73% used improved sanitation facilities, second worse. Improving major infrastructure such as pipes, and building waste water plants have been difficult for Iraq. The fighting in the country made such large projects almost impossible to complete such as the Waste Water Treatment Plant in Fallujah. Now that the civil war is over, red tape, the lack of capacity, and budget execution by the government still hinders such work. That means Iraq will likely remain lacking in these services for the foreseeable future.

Drinking Water Source

Bahrain

NA

Libya

54% improved, 46% unimproved

Yemen

62% improved

38% unimproved

Iraq

79% improved

21% unimproved

Morocco

81% improved

19% unimproved

Algeria

83% improved

17% unimproved

Oman

88% improved

12% unimproved

Syria

89% improved, 11% unimproved

Saudi Arabia

89% improved

11% unimproved

Iran

93% improved

7% unimproved

Tunisia

94% improved

6% unimproved

Jordan

96% improved

4% unimproved

Egypt

99% improved,

1% unimproved

Kuwait

99% improved

1% unimproved

Israel

100% improved

Qatar

100% improved

UAE

100% improved

Sanitation Facility Access

Saudi Arabia

N/A

Yemen

52% improved

48% unimproved

Iraq

73% improved

27% unimproved

Morocco

69% improved

31% unimproved

Iran

83% improved

17% unimproved

Tunisia

85% improved

15% unimproved

Oman

87% improved

13% unimproved

Egypt

94% improved

6% unimproved

Algeria

95% improved

5% unimproved

Syria

96% improved

4% unimproved

Libya

97% improved

3% unimproved

UAE

97% improved

3% unimproved

Jordan

98% improved

2% unimproved

Israel

100% improved

Kuwait

100% improved

Bahrain

100% improved

Qatar

100% improved

A more recent casualty in Iraq was the school system. During the chaos that was unleashed by the fall of Saddam, it was unsafe for many children to get an education. Kids were routinely kidnapped and ransomed by gangs and militants to raise money. As a result, a whole generation of Iraqis might have missed out on their formative years to build up their skills. As a result, Iraq has a poor literacy rate of 74.1%, fifth lowest in the region.

Literacy

Yemen

50.2%

Morocco

52.3%

Algeria

69.9%

Egypt

71.4%

Iraq

74.1%

Tunisia

74.3%

Iran

77%

UAE

77.9%

Saudi Arabia

78.8%

Syria

79.6%

Oman

81.4%

Libya

82.6%

Bahrain

86.5%

Qatar

89%

Jordan

89.9%

Kuwait

93.3%

Israel

97.1%

One thing that has finally begun to recover since 2003 is the Iraqi economy. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Purchasing Power Parity is a way to compare costs across different countries. From 2003-2008 Iraq’s economy declined, because the violence disrupted businesses and work. Since then, things have begun to get better. Today Iraq has a GDP Purchasing Power Parity figure of $113.4 billion in 2010, which places it right in the middle of the region. It is doing better than Syria, Tunisia, Libya, Oman, Yemen, Jordan, and Bahrain in that category.

2010

GDP

Purchasing

Power

Parity

Bahrain

$29.71 bil

Jordan

$34.53 bil

Yemen

$63.4 bil

Oman

$75.84 bil

Libya

$90.57 bil

Tunisia

$100 bil

Syria

$107.4 bil

Iraq

$113.4 bil

Kuwait

$136.5 bil

Qatar

$150.6 bil

Morocco

$151.4 bil

Israel

$219.4 bil

UAE

$246.8 bil

Algeria

$251.1 bil

Egypt

$497.8 bil

Saudi Arabia

$622 bil

Iran

$818.7 bil

Its overall GDP was estimated at $82.15 billion in 2010, again placing it right in the middle of the Middle East and North Africa. Much of the growth in its economy is due to its oil industry, which has finally returned to pre-invasion levels.

2010

GDP

Bahrain

$22.66 bil

Jordan

$27.53 bil

Yemen

$31.27 bil

Tunisia

$44.29 bil

Oman

$55.62 bil

Syria

$59.33 bil

Libya

$74.23 bil

Iraq

$82.15 bil

Morocco

$103.5 bil

Qatar

129.5 bil

Kuwait

$131.3 bil

Algeria

$160.3 bil

Israel

$213.1 bil

Egypt

$218.5 bil

UAE

$301.9 bil

Iran

$357.2 bil

Saudi Arabia

$443.7 bil

According to the Central Intelligence Agency, Iraq had a anemic 0.8% GDP growth rate in 2010. That was because of the lingering affects of the world recession. Since then, Iraq is expected to have one of the fastest growing economies in the world. The IMF for example, predicted that the GDP would grow 12.2% in 2011. Again, this is because Baghdad has signed deals with foreign companies to develop its oil industry, which drives the entire country.

2010

GDP

Growth

Rate

Iraq

0.8%

Iran

1%

Kuwait

2%

Jordan

3.1%

Morocco

3.2%

UAE

3.2%

Syria

3.2%

Algeria

3.3%

Tunisia

3.7%

Libya

4.2%

Oman

4.2%

Israel

4.6%

Egypt

5.1%

Saudi Arabia

3.7%

Bahrain

4.1%

Yemen

8%

Qatar

16.3%

The dominance of petroleum is shown by what contributes to Iraq’s GDP. 60.5% comes from industry, 58% of which is oil. Another 9.7% comes from agriculture, which is still one of the largest employers in Iraq. Finally services, contribute 29.8%. Similar trends are apparent in other major oil producing countries from the region.

2011

GDP

By Sector

Iraq

Agriculture 9.7%

Industry 60.5%

Services 29.8%

(2010)

Algeria

Agriculture 8.3%

Industry 61.6%

Services 30.1%

(2010)

Bahrain

Agriculture 0.5%

Industry 58%

Services 41.5%

Egypt

Agriculture 14%

Industry 35.7%

Services 48.3%

Iran

Agriculture 10.9%

Industry 41.2%

Services 47.9%

(2010)

Israel

Agriculture 2.4%

Industry 32.6%

Services 65%

(2010)

Jordan

Agriculture 4.4%

Industry 30.3%

Services 65.3%

Kuwait

Agriculture 0.3%

Industry 48%

Services 51.7%

Libya

Agriculture 2.7%

Industry 66.7%

Services 30.5%

Morocco

Agriculture 17.1%

Industry 31.6%

Services 51.4%

Oman

Agriculture 1.6%

Industry 51%

Services 47.5%

(2010)

Qatar

Agriculture 0.1%

Industry 71.8%

Services 28.1%

(2010)

Saudi Arabia

Agriculture 2.6%

Industry 61.8%

Services 35.6%

Syria

Agriculture 17.1%

Industry 27.3%

Services 55.7%

Tunisia

Agriculture 10.6%

Industry 34.6%

Services 54.8%

(2010)

UAE

Agriculture 0.9%

Industry 55.5%

Services 43.6%

Yemen

Agriculture 8.3%

Industry 38.5%

Services 53.3%

Because Iraq has such a large population it has a large work force. There are approximately 8.5 million laborers in Iraq, the fifth most in the region. Only Algeria, 10.81 million, Morocco, 11.44 million, Iran, 25.7 million, and Egypt, 26.2 million, have more people at work. Because of its high population growth rate, it is adding hundreds of thousands of new workers to the economy each year as well, placing huge strains on the economy to find gainful employment for them.

Labor Force

Bahrain

654,900

Oman

968,800

Qatar

1.242 mil

Jordan

1.719 mil

Libya

1.728 mil

Kuwait

2.158 mil

Israel

3.147 mil

UAE

3.705 mil

Tunisia

3.769 mil

Syria

5.529 mil

Yemen

6.823 mil

Saudi Arabia

7.337 mil

Iraq

8.5 mil

Algeria

10.81 mil

Morocco

11.44 mil

Iran

25.7 mil

Egypt

26.2 mil

The problems with having an oil dependent country are shown in what fields people work in. In 2008, services were the largest employer at 59.8%, but that sector only contributes 29.8% of the GDP. 21.6% also work in agriculture, which is less than 10% of GDP. 18.7% work in industry, which would seem to point out that a large number of people find work in the petroleum and related businesses, but that would be untrue. That only employs 1% of workers, and almost 58% of the GDP. Most of the country’s industrial workers are at state-run businesses, which specialize in useless employees who are simply given jobs to keep people off the streets, or for political patronage. Again, this is a common problem amongst many of the oil dependent countries in the region.

Labor Force by Occupation

Iraq

Agriculture 21.6%

Industry 18.7%

Services 59.8%

(2008)

Algeria

Agriculture 14%

Industry 13.4%

Construction 10%

Trade 14.6%

Government 32%

(2003)

Bahrain

Agriculture 1%

Industry 79%

Services 20%

(1997)

Egypt

Agriculture 32%

Industry 17%

Services 51%

(2001)

Iran

Agriculture 25%

Industry 31%

Services 45%

(2007)

Israel

Agriculture 2%

Industry 16%

Services 82%

(2008)

Jordan

Agriculture 2.7%

Industry 20%

Services 77.4%

(2007)

Kuwait

NA

Libya

Agriculture 17%

Industry 23%

Services 59%

(2004)

Morocco

Agriculture 44.6%

Industry 19.8%

Services 35.5%

(2006)

Oman

NA

Qatar

NA

Saudi Arabia

Agriculture 6.7%

Industry 21.4%

Services 71.9%

Syria

Agriculture 17%

Industry 16%

Services 67%

(2008)

Tunisia

Agriculture 18.3%

Industry 31.9%

Services 49.8%

UAE

Agriculture 7%

Industry 15%

Services 78%

(2000)

Yemen

NA

That also has an affect upon people finding work. In 2009, Iraq had a 15.3% jobless rate. Recently, a survey done by the Iraqi government and United Nations found that the jobless rate had gone down to 11% in 2011, but unofficially the rate is at 30%. Underemployment is even higher. That places Iraq towards the bottom in finding jobs for people, with only Libya and Yemen doing worse. Obviously, with the largest business in Iraq, providing hardly any work opportunities causes tremendous strains upon the country. Until it diversifies its economy, this will continue. Instead of trying to find new industries however, Baghdad has just attempted to create more public sector work, which does not solve anything, because many of these positions are useless, and only adds to underemployment.

Unemployment

Qatar

0.5% (2010)

Kuwait

2.2% (2004)

UAE

2.4% (2001)

Israel

6.7% (2010)

Syria

8.3% (2010)

Egypt

9% (2010)

Morocco

9.1% (2010)

Algeria

10% (2010)

Saudi Arabia

10.8% (2010)

Jordan

12.5% (2010)

Tunisia

13% (2010)

Iran

13.2% (2010)

Oman

15% (2004)

Bahrain

15% (2005)

Iraq

15.3% (2009)

Libya

30% (2004)

Yemen

35% (2003)

Along with high unemployment, Iraq also suffers from high rates of poverty. In 2008, 25% of the population was below the poverty line, which is just $2 per day. That is the third worse rate out of the figures available in the region. Poverty is said to be shallow in Iraq however, which means a small increase in income would raise a large number of people up out of the bottom. (1) Again, a major problem in the government’s anti-poverty programs is reliance upon public sector jobs. Better solutions have been proposed by government agencies, but Iraq has a bad rate of implementing its development plans, while making more government positions is much easier.

Pop. Below poverty level

Tunisia

3.8% (2005)

Syria

11.9% (2006)

Jordan

14.2% (2002)

Morocco

15% (2007)

Iran

18% (2007)

UAE

19.5% (2003)

Egypt

20% (2005)

Algeria

23% (2006)

Israel

23.6% (2007)

Iraq

25% (2008)

Libya

Approx. 33%

Yemen

45.2%

Bahrain

NA

Kuwait

NA

Oman

NA

Qatar

NA

Saudi Arabia

NA

An economic issue that has recently improved for Iraq is inflation. The insurgency and civil war shot up prices in the country. It has only just recovered from this, and inflation stood at a modest 2.4% in 2010.

2010

Inflation Rate

Qatar

-2.4%

UAE

0.9%

Morocco

1%

Bahrain

2%

Iraq

2.4%

Libya

2.5%

Israel

2.7%

Oman

3.2%

Algeria

3.9%

Kuwait

4%

Tunisia

4.4%

Syria

4.4%

Jordan

5%

Saudi Arabia

5.4%

Iran

10.1%

Egypt

11.1%

Yemen

11.2%

Electricity is another service that has suffered since the 1990 invasion of Kuwait. During the 1991 Gulf War, the Coalition bombed the power network to try to undermine Saddam. This was partially rebuilt afterward. Then after the 2003 American invasion, the power grid became a target of insurgents. Despite that, electricity output has steadily increased. The problem is that so has consumption, which has taken off at an even higher rate. That’s because Iraqis have been able to buy a wide variety of consumer goods since 2003 that were once denied them under sanctions such as refrigerators and air conditioners. Most Iraqis also do not pay electricity bills, so there is no control over usage. Together this means that Iraq does not produce enough power to meet demand, which leads to a reliance upon private generators. There are also constant blackouts through much of the country. It was no surprise then when electricity became a major cause of protests in Iraq in 2010 and 2011. The government’s plans to build new power plants to finally fix this problem have largely failed, because the bureaucracy cannot handle such large projects for a variety of reasons. That’s why Iraq is one of only two countries, Morocco, being the other in the Middle East and North Africa that has a power deficit.

Power Production

Power Consumption

Difference

Iraq

46.39 bil kilowatts/hr

(2009)

52 bil kilowatts/hr

(2009)

-5.61 bil kilowatts/hr

Morocco

19.49 bil

kilowatts/hr

(2008)

21.47 bil kilowatts/hr

(2008)

-1.98 bil kilowatts/hr

Qatar

19.18 bil kilowatts/hr

(2009)

18.79 bil kilowatts/hr

(2008)

+0.38 bil kilowatts/hr

Bahrain

11.22 bil kilowatts/hr

(2008)

10.48 bil kilowatts/hr

(2008)

+0.74 bil kilowatts/hr

Yemen

6.153 bil kilowatts/hr

(2008)

4.646 bil kilowatts/hr

(2008)

+1.507 bil kilowatts/hr

Jordan

13.01 bil kilowatts/hr

(2008)

11.3 bil kilowatts/hr

(2008)

+1.71 bil kilowatts/hr

Tunisia

14.4 bil kilowatts/hr

(2008)

12.49 bil kilowatt/hr

(2008)

+1.91 bil kilowatts/hr

Libya

26.95 bil kilowatts/hr

(2008)

22.89 bil

kilowatts/hr

(2008)

+4.06 bil kilowatts/hr

Oman

17.63 bil kilowatts/hr

(2009)

13.25 bil kilowatts/hr

(2008)

+4.38 bil kilowatts/hr

Israel

53.04 bil kilowatts

(2008)

47.16 bil kilowatts/hr

(2008)

+5.88 bil kilowatts/hr

Iran

212.8 bil kilowatts/hr

(2009)

206.7 bil kilowatts/hr (2009)

+6.1 bil kilowatts/hr

Kuwait

49.82 bil kilowatts/hr

(2009)

42.58 bil kilowatts/hr

(2008)

+7.24 bil kilowatts/hr

Algeria

40.11 bil kilowatts/hr

(2009)

30.5 bil kilowatts/hr

(2008)

+9.61 bil kilowatts/hr

Syria

38.71 bil kilowatts/hr

(2008)

28.99 bil kilowatts/hr

(2008)

+9.72 bil kilowatts/hr

UAE

80.94 bil kilowatts/hr

(2009)

70.58 bil kilowatts/hr

(2008)

+10.36 bil kilowatts/hr

Egypt

123.9 bil kilowatts/hr

(2008)

109.1 bil kilowatts/hr

(2008)

+14.8 bil kilowatts/hr

Saudi Arabia

194.4 bil kilowatts/hr

(2009)

174.5 bil kilowatts/hr

(2008)

+19.9 bil kilowatts/hr

Even with all of the conflict, political disputes, and aging infrastructure, Iraq is still one of the largest oil producers and exporters in the region. It is the 5th largest producer overall. After it signed a number of deals with foreign companies, the Oil Ministry announced aspirations to surpass Iran and Saudi Arabia who are the two largest producers in the Middle East. It will probably take a decade to reach Iran’s level because of Iraq’s bureaucracy, politics, and delays in development projects that are endemic to the country.

Oil Prod.

Oil Exp.

Jordan

88 bar/day

(2010)

0 bar/day

Morocco

3,938 bar/day

(2010)

25,090 bar/day

(2009)

Israel

4,029 bar/day

(2010)

86,010 bar/day

(2009)

Tunisia

83,720 bar/day

(2010)

91,200 bar/day

(2009)

Bahrain

46,430 bar/day

(2010)

239,900 bar/day

(2009)

Yemen

258,800 bar/day

(2010)

207,700 bar/day

(2009)

Syria

401,000 bar/day

(2010)

263,000 bar/day

(2009)

Egypt

662,600 bar/day

(2010)

163,000

bar/day

(2009)

Oman

867,900 bar/day

(2010)

592,300 bar/day

(2009)

Qatar

1.437 mil/bar/day

(2010)

1.038 mil/bar/day

(2009)

Libya

1.789 mil/bar/day

(2010)

1.385 mil/bar/day

(2009)

Algeria

2.078 mil/bar/day

(2010)

1.694 mil/bar/day

(2009)

Iraq

2.408 mil/bar/day

(2010)

1.91 mil/bar/day

(2009)

Kuwait

2.45 mil/bar/day

(2010)

2.127 mil/bar/day

(2009)

UAE

2.813 mil/bar/day

(2010)

2.395 mil/bar/day

(2009)

Iran

4.252 mil/bar/day

(2010)

2.523 mil/bar/day

(2009)

Saudi Arabia

10.52 mil/bar/day

(2010)

7.635 mil/bar/day

(2009)

The reason Iraq wants to move towards the top of oil producing countries is that it has huge untapped oil reserves. At 115 billion barrels, it has the fourth most proven reserves in the Middle East and North Africa. It could have even more if more exploration work was done. Much of this is untapped potential however, since it does not have the infrastructure at this date to exploit all of this oil.

Oil Reserves

Morocco

680,000 bar

Jordan

1 mil/bar

Tunisia

425 mil/bar

Israel

1.94 mil/bar

Syria

2.5 bil/bar

Yemen

3 bil/bar

Egypt

4.4 bil/bar

Oman

5.5 bil/bar

Algeria

12.2 bil

Qatar

25.38 bil/bar

Libya

46.42 bil/bar

UAE

97.8 bil/bar

Kuwait

104 bil/bar

Iraq

115 bil/bar

Bahrain

124.6 mil/bar

Iran

137 bil/bar

Saudi Arabia

262.6 bil/bar

All of the countries in the region also have large natural gas reserves. Iraq would like to exploit this resource more, and eventually export it. It is just beginning to sign deals with foreign companies to achieve that. Iraq has the 6th largest gas reserves in region at 3.17 trillion cubic meters. Only 1.149 billion cubic meters were actually produced in 2009, because it lacks the pipelines and storage facilities to use much more. Most of the gas produced in Iraq comes from the extraction of oil, and is burned off. This is a huge waste of resources and money.

2011

Natural Gas Proven Reserves

Morocco

1.444 bil cu. meters

Jordan

6.031 bil cu. meters

Tunisia

65.13 bil cu. meters

Bahrain

92.03 bil cu. meters

Israel

198.2 bil cu. meters

Syria

240.7 bil cu. meters

Yemen

478.5 bil cu. meters

Oman

849.5 bil cu. meters

Libya

1.548 tril cu. meters

Kuwait

1.798 tril cu. meters

Egypt

2.186 tril cu. meters

Iraq

3.17 tril cu. meters

Algeria

4.502 tril cu. meters

UAE

6.453 tril cu. meters

Saudi Arabia

7.807 tril cu. meters

Qatar

25.37 tril cu. meters

Iran

29.61 tril cu. meters

Natural Gas Prod

Natural Gas Cons.

Natural Gas Exports

Natural Gas Imports

Morocco

60 mil cu. Meters

(2009)

560 mil cu. Meters (2009)

0

500 mil cu. Meters

(2009)

Jordan

250 mil cu. meters

(2009)

3.1 bil cu. meters

92009)

0

2.85 bil cu. meters

(2009)

Yemen

520 mil cu. meters

(2009)

100 mil cu. meters

(2009)

420 mil cu. meters

(2009)

0

Iraq

1.149 bil cu. meters

(2009)

1.149 bil cu. meters

(2009)

0

0

Israel

1.55 bil cu. meters

(2009)

3.25 bil cu. meters

(2009)

0

1.7 bil cu. meters

(2009)

Tunisia

3.6 bil cu. meters

(2009)

4.85 bil cu. meters

(2009)

0

1.25 bil cu. meters

(2009)

Syria

6.19 bil cu. meters

(2009)

7.1 bil cu. meters

(2009)

0

910 mil cu. meters

(2009)

Kuwait

11.49 bil cu. meters

(2009)

12.38 bil cu. meters

(2009)

0

890 mil cu. meters

(2009)

Bahrain

12.58 bil cu. meters

(2009)

12.58 bil cu. meters

(2009)

0

0

Libya

15.9 bil cu. meters

(2009)

6.01 bil cu. meters (2009)

9.89 bil cu. meters

(2009)

0

Oman

24.76 bil cu. meters

(2009)

14.72 bil cu. meters

(2009)

11.54 bil cu. meters

(2009)

1.5 bil cu. meters

(2009)

UAE

48.84 bil cu. meters

(2009)

59.08 bil cu. meters

(2009)

7.01 bil cu. meters

(2009)

17.25 bil cu. meters

(2009)

Egypt

62.69 bil cu. meters

(2009)

44.37 bil cu. meters

(2009)

18.32 bil cu. meters

(2009)

0

Saudi Arabia

83.94 bil

cu. meters

(2010)

83.94 bil cu. meters

(2010)

0

0

Algeria

85.14 bil cu. meters

(2010)

29.86 bil cu. meters

(2010)

55.28 bil cu. meters

(2010)

4.502 tril cu. meters

(2011)

Qatar

116.7 bil cu. meters

(2010)

21.89 bil cu. meters

(2010)

94.81 bil cu. meters

(2010)

0

Iran

138.5 bil cu. meters

(2010)

137.5 bil cu. meters

(2010)

7.87 bil cu. meters

(2010

6.9 bil cu. meters

(2010)

Iraq has a healthy trade balance with a surplus due to its oil exports. The amount it earned from that industry went up last year as prices soared with the unrest in the Middle East. However, just a slight drop in price could quickly reverse that trend.

2010

Exports

Imports

Difference

Jordan

$7.333 bil

$12.97 bil

-$5.637 bil

Yemen

$7.718 bil

$8,701 bil

-$0.983 bil

Bahrain

$13.83 bil

$11.19 bil

+$2.14 bil

Syria

$14.03 bil

$16.98 bil

-$2.95 bil

Tunisia

$16.43 bi

$21.01 bil

-$4.58 bil

Morocco

$17.58 bil

$32.65 bil

-$15.07 bil

Egypt

$25.02 bil

$51.54 bil

-$26.52 bil

Oman

$36.6 bil

$17.87 bil

+$18.73 bil

Libya

$41.8 bil

$24.73 bil

+$17.07 bil

Iraq

$51.76 bil

$43.92 bil

+$7.84 bil

Israel

$55.67 bil

$58.04 bil

+$2.37 bil

Algeria

$57.19 bil

$38.38 bil

+$18.81 bil

Kuwait

$66.96 bil

$19.06 bil

+47.9 bil

Qatar

$72.04 bil

$20.94 bil

+$51.1 bil

Iran

$84.92 bil

$58.97 bil

+$25.95 bil

UAE

$212.3 bil

$161.4 bil

+$50.9 bil

Saudi Arabia

$237.9 bil

$88.35 bil

+149.55 bil

The current account balance calculates the balance of trade (exports minus imports), plus net income, and the transfer of payments such as foreign aid, and in Iraq’s case reparations to Kuwait, all together. Iraq has a middling $3.105 billion current account balance, because it still has to pay Kuwait 5% of its oil exports, plus imports large amounts of food, electricity, fuel, and consumer goods. Another sign that Iraq’s economy is not diversified, and is too reliant upon oil is that it has to import so many goods and services.

2010

Current Account Balance

Morocco

-$4.625 bil

Egypt

-$4.435 bil

Yemen

-$1.944 bil

Syria

-$1.379 bil

Jordan

-$974.5 mil

Tunisia

-$973.4 mil

Bahrain

$239.5 mil

Oman

$2.007 bil

Iraq

$3.105 bil

UAE

$6.053 bil

Israel

$6.699 bil

Algeria

$12.74 bil

Qatar

$15.04 bil

Iran

$15.42 bil

Libya

$16.16 bil

Kuwait

$43.14 bil

Saudi Arabia

$70.1 bil

Iraq has the fifth largest debt in the region. That is mostly due to the expense of the Iran-Iraq War, which was largely financed by regional players like Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, etc., loaning money to Saddam. The Saudis and Kuwait have been unwilling to forgive those debts since 2003 for political reasons. The Saudis do not like Shiite rule in Baghdad, and Kuwait is still weary of Iraq as well. The United Arab Emirates did just forgive its $5.8 billion debt on January 17, 2012, but Iraq still has a large outstanding burden.

Debt

Algeria

$4.344 bil

(2010)

Libya

$6.396 bil

(2010)

Yemen

$6.586 bil

(2010)

Syria

$7.636 bil

(2010)

Oman

$7.921 bil

(2010)

Iran

$14.34 bil

(2010)

Bahrain

$14.58 bil

(2010)

Jordan

$17.46 bil

(2011)

Tunisia

$23.09 bil

(2011)

Morocco

$30.19 bil

(2011)

Egypt

$34.91 bil

(2011)

Kuwait

$45.43 bil

(2010)

Iraq

$52.58 bil

(2010)

Qatar

$75.13 bil

(2010)

Saudi Arabia

$80.94 bil

(2010)

Israel

$112.4 bil

(2011)

UAE

$151.8 bil

(2010)

All together, Iraq follows many of the trend seen in the Middle East and North Africa. It has a very young and growing population. This was seen across the region when thousands of young people took to the streets during the Arab Spring, and protests in Iraq itself this past year. It also has an oil dependent economy, which means that it cannot find enough jobs for those young people. The government has responded with more public sector jobs, which solves nothing. To add to these difficulties, Iraq is still trying to recover from two decades of sanctions and war. That has devastated its services, such as health and electricity. Iraq is trying to solve these problems, but to very mixed results. Overall, Iraq is still at the bottom in many important categories when compared to its neighbors, but some things are getting better. The main issue is the government, which seems incapable of successfully implementing any large projects or planning for the future. That makes Iraq a rather typical developing country.

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About Me

Musings On Iraq was started in 2008 to explain the political, economic, security and cultural situation in Iraq via original articles and interviews. If you wish to contact me personally my email is: motown67@aol.com