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The Next Atlantic Tropical Cyclone

The GOES full disc image above shows a somewhat concentrated area of cloudiness, showers and thunderstorms over the extreme southeastern Caribbean Sea and the Windward Islands associated with a tropical wave. The U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) model and the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model, as well as the global model from Environment Canada and the U.S. Navy’s Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) model, all indicate that this disturbance will develop into a tropical cyclone and move generally westward or west-northwestward toward Central America as we head into the weekend.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is currently giving the disturbance a 50% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours on it’s most recent Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO). If the NHC ‘s TWO went beyond two days, I suspect that the probability of development would likely be higher.

The only two global models that extend out in time to ten days or longer are the GFS and the ECMWF. Both of these models currently suggest that the tropical cyclone may meander over the northwestern Caribbean Sea for a few days early next week and eventually start moving northward or northeastward by the middle of next week.

Of course there is considerable uncertainty at the extended time periods, but if the long-range models are correct, this might be a system that we will have to watch closely here in South Florida.