A new Fox News poll of likely Tennessee voters indicates that Republican Marsha Blackburn is leading Democrat Phil Bredesen in the race for the open U.S. Senate seat by a three point margin, 47-44, with eight percent remaining undecided. The Blackburn lead is within the poll’s margin of error.

Backburn’s television ads in the campaign have relied heavily on tying her to President Donald Trump. With the Fox News poll revealing that the President has a 58-38% approval/disapproval rating among Tennessee likely voters her strategy seems to be on track. Blackburn and Bredesen enjoy similar approval/disapproval numbers, which may indicate that the Trump factor is the difference in the race at this point. Blackburn has a 51-39 approval/disapproval gap while Bredesen’s is slightly better at 54-36.

Tennessee Star Political Editor Steve Gill cautions that the Fox News poll seems a bit more heavily weighted to the Republicans than Democrats so the results should be viewed with that in mind. “The poll construction has 35% Democrats and 53% Republicans with 12% described as Independent,” Gill notes. “I think the GOP number is about 5 points too high and the Independent number about 5 points short. A better distribution would narrow the Lee lead a bit, probably to the low teens, and keep the Senate race in a dead heat.”

One red flag for Blackburn in the poll is the fact that a significant number of those who approve of Trump are backing Bredesen. Among self-described Trump approvers, 76 percent are for Blackburn with 16 percent for Bredesen.

White Christian Evangelicals are strongly in the Blackburn camp, with Blackburn leading Bredesen by 35 points among those voters. Bredesen leads by 61 points among non-white voters, so a Barack Obama visit to Memphis before election day to motivate black voters is certainly a possibility.

“I think Blackburn has three keys to winning,” Gill adds. “She has to win over those who approve of President Trump but are currently planning to vote for Bredesen — who will immediately empower the anti-Trump Democrats in the Senate if he wins — and energize the pro-Trump base to show up and vote! Second she needs to ensure that the white Evangelical voters who overwhelmingly support her actually turn out and vote. And finally she must make the case to the subset of Republican voters who have a positive impression of Bredesen and are leaning towards voting for him that the election is not really about him but instead the liberal extremist Democrats that he puts into power if he is in the Senate, people like Chuck Shumer, Elizabeth Warren and Corey ‘Spartacus’ Booker.”

Gill said he expects to see at least one or two Trump visits to the state before November 6, along with Vice President Pence’s visit to Knoxville on September 21. “Nationally, the Democrats are making this election about Donald Trump,” Gill notes, “And that is not good for Bredesen who would prefer this to be a localized election where Trump is not a factor.”

If your platform largely rests on following President Trump’s lead, versus what it is you will do, specifically, to improve the lot of mainstay Tennesseans, then you should not be too surprised if you lose ground to someone who is campaigning for what he will do for Tennessee. This problem is not restricted to Rep. Blackburn, it’s across the board. the mid-term elections are being cast as a referendum on the Trump presidency, not on the issues – not at all.

Now, do I believe Phony Phil? Of course not. Moreover, Project Veritas caught Phony Phil’s campaign workers admitting his deceit, which was then doubled down by a Demonrat operative lying about the status of those caught on tape.

The Senate is there to represent the state’s interests, unlike the House which is there to represent the populace of a district. Do either of these candidates have any foreign policy experience? What makes one or the other more qualified to decide on treaties? In other words, what are the unique responsibilities of the Senate and how does each candidate stack up? What are the challenges and opportunities for Tennessee and what can (and should) the U.S. Senate do to further our prosperity and correct our shortcomings?

This is very much a microcosm of the last general election – you have one candidate that is dumb as a post, and another crooked as a stick. Hopefully, the good people of Tennessee will choose the former over the latter.

As for polls? Bah. Polls are for the simple-minded who want someone else to tell them who to vote for. It’s groupthink realized, nothing more, nothing less.

[…] 6.7 percent undecided. That three point margin for Blackburn is consistent with a Fox News Poll released earlier this week., which also showed Blackburn leading by three points. Like the Fox News Poll, the Tennessee Star […]

People are busy earning a living and managing their daily lives. So, most voters in political campaigns only know—more or less—what they see on television.

I’ll ‘hand it’ to Bredesen, ‘the old fraud’ is very good on television at appearing honest and sincere, and thus likeable. This has to be countered without appearing to be ‘mean’ in the process. Maybe the best way for Marsha to do this is to repeatedly show Bredesen’s dishonesty in his television ads. But I do not claim to be an expert at t.v. political ad production–so take my advice ‘with a grain of salt.’

I think that Bredesen’s television ads are very good (and deceptive). He obviously has some real ‘pros’ on his campaign who know their ‘stuff.’ Thus, the Blackburn campaign’s ads in response must be nimble and quick to reply to the deceit. I fear that DELAY in responding to Bredesen’s ‘schtick’ will allow his deceptive message to ‘take hold,’ and then thereafter it becomes much more difficult (if ever) to undo.

I just find it very difficult to forget that in 2006 Corker only won by approximately 50K votes out of approximately 1.834M votes cast (actually 1,833,693), a winning percentage of 50.7% to 48% when the third-party/independent candidates are also considered. I don’t think that much has changed in Tennessee in the last 12 years in this regard.