Sam and Kelekin gave us great coverage of the draft this week. Today Kelekin wraps it up with his summary and his opinions on the best of the draft. We will also use this thread as the signings thread. Over to Kelekin.........

With the 2012 draft in the rear-view mirror, itís time we examine some of the players drafted by the Blue Jays and grade the draft. There is no question that this was a top-tier draft by Toronto, taking many high ceiling players in the first three rounds.

First and foremost, here is the list of draftees. Draftees who have signed will be bolded, with a signing amount beside their name. Draft slot amounts in brackets via Baseball America

Extra cash before losing a draft pick: estimated $5,340

1) Dylan Davis, OF, HS - $1,750,000 ($2,000,000)

1) Marcus Stroman, RHP, Jr - $1,800,000 ($1,800,000)

1s) Matt Smoral, LHP, HS - ~$2,000,000 ($1,000,000)

1s) Mitch Nay, 3B, HS - $1,000,000 ($884,100)

1s) Tyler Gonzales, RHP, HS $750,000 ($857,200)

2) Chase DeJong, RHP, HS $860,000 ($620,300)

3) Anthony Alford, OF, HS $750,000 ($424,400)

4) Tucker Donahue, RHP, Sr - <$10,000($308,700)

5) Brad Delatte, LHP, Sr <$5,000 ($231,100)

6) Eric Phillips, 3B, Sr, - $5,000 ($173,200)

7) Ian Parmley, OF, Sr <$5,000 ($145,000)

8) Harrison Frawley, C, 5-Sr <$5,000 ($135,400)

9) Jordan Leyland, 1B, Sr <$5,000 ($126,400)

10) Alex Azor, CF, Sr - $1,000 ($125,000)

11) Grant Heyman, OF, HS

12) Ryan Kellogg, LHP, HS

13) John Silviano, C, HS

14) Zak Wasilewski, LHP, HS

15) Ryan Borucki, LHP, HS $426,000 ($326 over limit)

16) Will Dupont, 2B, HS

17) Shane Dawson, LHP, Juco

18) Alonzo Gonzalez, LHP, Juco

19) Jorge Flores, SS, Juco

20) Dennis Jones, OF, Juco

21) Colton Turner, LHP, Jr

22) Josh Almonte, OF, HS

23) Trey Pascazi, SS, HS

24) Matt Rose, RHP, HS

25) Jason Leblebijian, SS, Jr

26) Nathan Desouza OF, HS

27) Daniel Zamora, LHP, HS

28) Dan Klein, C, Sr

29) Cole Irvin, LHP, HS

30) Devin Pearson, OF, HS

31) Derrick Chung, SS, 5-Sr

32) Jorge Saez, C, Jr

33) Jonathan Harris, RHP, HS

34) Brandon Lopez, SS, HS

35) Devyn Rivera, RHP, Sr

36) Brian Cruz, SS, Juco

37) Daniel Devonshire, 1B, Juco

38) Nick Lovullo, SS, HS

39) Shaun Valeriote, 3B, Jr

40) Jose Cuas, SS, HS

The Seniors' Buffet

With a new CBA comes new draft strategy, and Toronto was one of many teams to employ the tactic of drafting seniors to add money for harder to sign early-round picks. Every pick from the 4th through 10th round was a college senior, some of which would have been unlikely to get drafted under the old system - or at least not until the late rounds. However, this wasn't punting picks. The Jays likely believe they have college seniors who do have some degree of potential, albeit limited.

Of the college seniors drafted - Eric Phillips is easily the most interesting. Phillips has posted great lines year after year, posting a .390/.464/.514 line in 2011 and currently ranked 21st in batting average in all of NCAA Division I ball. While his upside may be limited, if you saw a player with a line like Phillips, you would not assume he would be signing for a $5000 bonus. On top of that, he has some degree of speed, with 55 SBs in the last two seasons and currently ranked 25th. Phillips is a bargain for the price and should have no issues in the low minors.

Of the later-round college crop, Colton Turner holds promise if he signs. This year, he posted a 2.46 ERA in 14 starts, with a 3.49 BB/9, 8.93 K/9 and WHIP of 1.48. I would not be surprised to see him go back to school and improve upon his position for next year, as he was one of the better pitchers in his conference this year. Turner was ranked #484 on the Baseball America Top 500.

High School Hopefuls (11th Round and Later)

Once the 11th round started, teams started picking high-upside players to sign as likely back-up plans due to harder signs not going in their favour. The Jays picked many players that would fit in this category, including Ryan Kellogg, Ryan Borucki, William DuPont, Cole Irvin, Jonathan Harris, and Brandon Lopez.

Some of our other high schoolers may be more poised to sign, although anything is possible. Grant Heyman (11th round) did not make the BA Top 500, but was ranked #9 in New York. According to PerfectGame's New York preview Grant Heyman was listed as the state's "Prospect On The Rise" as well as Best Athlete. Heyman is speedy, having clocked a 6.7 60. He is considered raw but athletic, and there was the possibility of him being taken earlier.

Ryan Kellogg (12th round) would have easily gone in the top 5 rounds under the old CBA, but fell all the way to the 12th. It has been said that he turned down teams early for as high as 350K, which will make him a tough sign in this category. Kellogg is Canada's consensus top prospect this year. He's a big 6'5" 220lb kid, usually sitting between 87-89 mph with a solid downward plane. He is projected to throw harder, with both his curveball and change-up considered solid pitches.

Zak Wasilewski (14th round) was on the map until having Tommy John surgery in 2011, his junior season. Prior to his surgery, he was hitting 91 mph and reports have shown that he managed to hit 91 mph quite early on in the season post-recovery. Online reports have stated Wasilewski has unofficially signed with the Jays, though nothing is official yet. While Zak did not make BA or PG's Top 500, he is an intriguing pick.

Ryan Borucki (15th round) injured himself in March, and suddenly fell off prospect radars. His potential was still known however, as teams called him as early as the 3rd round. It is extremely unlikely the 6'4" lefty will sign without receiving more than 100K, as he himself has stated ďI think the fact that the Blue Jays are planning on coming out here says that they have a lot of faith in me and they think they might have enough money leftover (after signing higher picks) to sign me." Borucki has a good breaking ball and has hit 91-92 MPH on the gun.

William DuPont (16th round) is a blazing-fast shortstop, having run a 6.47 60. He has the best speed out of the Missouri crop, but struggled with the bat in his senior season after a tremendous junior season put him on the map. He may be a tough sign, but would be an exciting player to add to our system.

Josh Almonte (22nd round) was a virtual unknown until 2012. He showed good speed, and an impressive arm, clocked as high as 93 mph from the outfield. Almonte struggled with the bat as a senior, but he has plenty of raw tools. He is considered a slightly tough sign, but if he does sign, it's unlikely it'd be too far over the 100K.

Nathan DeSouza (26th round) is a power-hitting OF from Ontario, ranked 7th in Canada by BA. Most of DeSouza's potential stems from his bat, as PerfectGame rated him Best Hitter & Best Power in Canada. Certainly, any time you get a power prospect, especially a Canadian one, you have to hope he signs.

Cole Irvin (29th round) was ranked by both PG and BA in their Top 500 lists. Irvin is a projectable 6'4" who has yet to fill out, weighing in at only 175 lbs. With solid breaking balls and hitting 90-91 MPH, Irvin would be a great signing at this point in the draft. He may be a very tough sign, as it is likely he would have gone mid-way through Day 2 if he was signable at slot.

Brandon Lopez (33rd round) is one of the best defensive shortstops in the 2012 draft, and it will be impossible to sign him without an over-slot deal. Lopez was ranked #154 by BA.

Recap

Overall, the Blue Jays' draft was on par with the past two years. Plenty of high upside talent was taken. It may be harder to get some of them under contract this year than previous years, and it is unlikely the Jays will have a draft this fruitful ever again under the new CBA. Starting in 2013, there will be fewer picks given in compensation, and the playing field will even out. If the Jays somehow managed to get both Smoral and Alford under contract, an unlikely feat, they would easily have a top 3 draft. The combination of Smoral and Stroman will be an exciting one to watch, while DeJong has solid pitchability and Nay has raw power. If Alford doesn't sign, there will likely be enough money to land the majority of our other tough signs, such as Irvin, Lopez, Kellogg, Borucki, Dupont, and Almonte.

Keith Law, in an ESPN insider report, apparently said that he would already rank Marcus Stroman as the 4th best of all Jays prospects -- ahead of Gose, Sydergaard, etc. A little excessive, no?? As Gerry rightly noted a couple days ago, these newly drafted prospects who've never played a day of professional ball are incredibly difficult to rank.

On the other hand, it's nice to know that Law has such a high opinion of Stroman. I wonder if it's true that he could be in a Jays uniform by the end of the season? The bullpen could use the help....

I'd been waiting for this thread. The old one got really full. I'm very happy with the draft, and Stroman in particular: at the end of the day I think he'll out-WAR our other picks at the major league level.

Really hoping we can sign Dupont, it'd be nice to get a speedy MI prospect into our system. It seems that all our speed is in the outfield at the moment.

Given the new draft rules in place, it'd be nice to see in the listing above what the individual bonus allocation for the drafted player is and, once signed, what the surplus or deficit is on the pick's bonus allocation.

I have read a lot scouting reports about him since he was drafted and I think Law put him there for a couple of reasons - he has electric stuff and he is polished. He can pitch in the majors right now and be a really good relief guy. And if the Jays want him to start multiple scouts have said he has a ceiling of a #2 starter.

The Jays have no one with his stuff and profile in the upper levels and all the high ceiling talent is at least a couple of years away.

Keith Law also said that they can call him up as a bullpen guy this year and give him experience that way and then convert him to a starter next year i.e. like Chris Sale.

I can imagine a scenario given how bad the bullpen is - that if the Jays are hanging around in a playoff race they will call up Stroman and him and Santos can form a very good back end of the bullpen.

BA has a post-draft podcast with Jim Callis, among others, and the Jays come up a fair bit in the discussion. The panel is extremely praising of the Jays draft, but they also discuss how AA worked the new draft system to his advantage. While he was not the only one to do so, given the extra picks the Jays had in the early rounds, the approach from rounds 4-10 made a lot of sense.

They also discussed scenarios in which the Jays might sign their top 7 picks or, losing out on Alford, they have 4-5 really nice prospects from rounds 11 onward that they could target (they mention Kellogg, DuPont, and Lopez in particular).

They also talk about ways that the new system could be tweaked and improved. It is worth a listen:

Lets say the Jays do a deal with Alford that says we will pay you $200k for the summer and if you commit to us full time next year we will pay you $1M. What counts against the slot, the actual $200k or the potential $1.2M total?

I think it would be impossible to sign Alford otherwise. If football doesn't pan out, at least you get his rights. The question is how big of a bonus will he get for someone who has no guarantee of ending up in baseball. If it's low enough, you could get some of the harder signs under contract.

If Smoral is getting 2M and Alford gets double slot, that's about a 200K overage currently in the pool with no word on relative bonuses for Nay, Stroman, Davis, and DeJong. When all is said and done, if Nay and Davis are under-slot, it would leave room to sign some of the tough signs. Whether or not the Jays are willing to go into overages is an interesting question though, because if they were, they could easily sign 3-5 of the tougher late-pick signs.

Obviously talent existed in each round if you knew where to look, but in most cases the player listed was it. Round 2 and 6 were flops (so far...players could recover but teams don't want to wait 13 years to get payback from a draft).

I guess this helps show the value in finding those gems (such as EE) and getting guys signed (such as Hill who didn't).

College football season starts early in the US. I would assume that Alford will only play baseball for half of June and all of July, call it six weeks. College football practices probably start early August. Next year he could be in camp from mid-May through end July, assuming he is still playing football. He won't be able to attend instructional league.

I don't make assumptions on draft budgets because I have no knowledge of a team's financial willingness. I would like to see them use the overages, we just have no evidence either way that they will use it.

That being said, I think they'd be foolish not to, considering we will have significantly less picks in the future which will shrink our ability to have higher overages.

I don't get the Alford thing, as currently presented. Why would the Jays pay him double slot if they're merely hoping that he might give up football at some point? Why pay him so much money and then let him expose himself to football injuries, and delay his baseball focus for two or three years, without even knowing his intentions? Seems like quite a gamble -- especially since it's a protected pick and the Jays had the option of using the pick next year (on someone who's actually committed to baseball) if Alford seemed unsure about baseball. There must be more to the story. Wouldn't he have to promise the Jays that he is likely to go into baseball full-time in two or three years?

Jim Callis of Baseball America reports that
the Blue Jays will sign third-round OF Anthony Alford and allow him to
play football at Southern Mississippi.
Alford was thought by many teams to be
unsignable due to his football commitment, but the Jays have managed to
reel him in by allowing him to play on the gridiron, as well. Callis
reports that his signing bonus may be close to double the $424,400 value
slotted for the 112th overall pick. Alford is very raw and will take
even longer to develop with football also in the picture, but he has a
ton of upside as a speedster with plus power potential.

You have to consider it as a gamble. This is a player who reportedly wanted 3M+ to sign to baseball full-time, and even then may not have with his desire to play football. You're paying 800k (or so) for a top-tier raw talent in hopes that he will progress and want to play baseball. So there's many outcomes. If he does not do well at baseball, the benefit is you've only paid 800k for the risk instead of millions. On the downside, he may succeed in football and give up on baseball.

I don't get the Alford thing, as currently presented. Why would the Jays
pay him double slot if they're merely hoping that he might give up
football at some point? Why pay him so much money and then let him
expose himself to football injuries, and delay his baseball focus for
two or three years, without even knowing his intentions? (emphasis added)

That's quite an assumption, that they did not know his intentions. The normal presumption in the circumstances I think, would be that they very well did know his intentions, and rather than losing him entirely where he could re-enter the draft in a couple of years, chose to sign him and take their chances. It's their money, they think it's a gamble better taken than not, and I assume they did so in full knowledge of the circumstances. Everything I've read since the draft says that the Jays scouting team has been all over the people they've taken, all year. Not much mystery here.

As to the money involved, I have no idea, neither does Jim Callis (or Keith Law who often claims knowledge of such things, e.g. Smoral's contract) and neither does anyone here. We'll find out when we find out.

It's not just the $800,000 gamble (which is unusual enough for Anthopoulos). It's also the loss of the protected pick in next year's draft. That's a double cost. Hard to believe the Jays would gamble so much, unless there was some kind of understanding with the guy.

Seems like a good arrangement for Alford, as he has a nice nest egg in case his athletic career (in football or baseball) doesn't pan out.

I wonder how long Alford intends to play football before making a commitment to playing either sport full-time. If he plays three or four years of college football, will a professional baseball career even still be feasible (i.e., if he foregoes an NFL career)? Has this kind of arrangement worked out for other MLB teams in the past?

"....That's quite an assumption, that they did not know his intentions...."

You misunderstood my point. My point is that the Jays MUST logically have a good sense of his intentions. That's the only explanation for the cost in money (and the loss of a protected pick). Otherwise it makes little sense. So it's probably not as much of a gamble as some are saying.

And thank you too Gerry! You're right that the draft coverage which Sam and Kelekin have provided is top-drawer, as is your continued coverage of the minor leagues generally, including in respect of this draft. Other than the work Jamie Newberg does for Rangers fans, I don't know if there's another team that has the quality of intelligent discussion of minor leaguers and the draft as is provided here.

You're correct, I did. Sorry about that. I doubt though, that there is a secret agreement that he quits football. I suspect instead that the Jays know he's not ready to give it up (he's in Miss after all, where college football reigns) and are prepared to take their chances that he will. It's a long time until next spring, and while you're right he could be injured, it may very well be that for one reason or another (not starting would be an obvious one, but there are others) the bloom comes of the rose. Apparently, the kid's got some talent.

If true,the Alford signing would be great news - it's a worthy gamble IMO - QBing at southern Mississippi probably means he's not likely to be an NFL QB prospect - likely a DB/Wideout prospect if at all - so he gets to be big man on campus as QB & then if he has any success if minor league ball it's more likely that's where his pro career lies - in the early days, the Jays did this with Danny Ainge - let's hope that Alford doesn't quite develop as well in football as Ainge in Basketball (of course, giving Ainge a ML contract and having to keep him at the ML level probably derailed his chances in baseball). Depending on what amounts the jays sign Davis/Stroman for, they may be able to sign some other tough HS draftees.

It's not just the $800,000 gamble (which is
unusual enough for Anthopoulos). It's also the loss of the protected
pick in next year's draft. That's a double cost.

The way you need to look at it is that Alford is a 1st round talent whereas the protected pick in only a 3rd rounder. Under the new rules you are far less likely to get a player of Alford's ability in the 3rd round...the ones that do end up there are going to have serious signability concerns. They could take the pick next year, but they'd almost undoubtedly end up with someone who is not as talented as Alford. Thats the "risk".

QBing at southern Mississippi probably means he's not likely to be an NFL QB prospect

Alford is a very good QB prospect who actually could have signed with a school much better than USM. He was good enough to end up at a top-tier SEC school like an LSU or even Alabama. The fact that he actually ended up at USM hurts us because he is almost undoubtedly going to play early and is a near shoe-in to start. He is their best football sign in years and the school actually hired his legal guardian/coach onto their football staff. USM is also a mid-major school which means that realistically Alford should absolutely perform well given the lesser talent he will be competing against.

Had he ended up at a top SEC school like LSU he realistically could have rode the bench/gotten washed out among the talent which could have pushed him to give up football and pursue baseball full-time. Realistically that is what we are "hoping" for; but unfortunately his USM destination will make it hard.

Thank you ComebyDeanChance. I agree that this is by far the best Jays site for intelligent discussion on everything Jays-related.

It will be interesting to follow the Alford situation and this may become more common with legitimate two-sport stars under the new rules. Having a kid play baseball part time is less than ideal and in my mind cuts down on the potential for the tools to develop.

I think Gerry is right about his schedule and what we can expect from him going forward. If the signing is true, I imagine he plays a bit in the GCL and then joins Southern Miss to play football in late July/early August. I guess the team would then see him next in the winter at the rookie instructional camp and then not see him until late April (Spring Football Practice). I guess the plan would be then to have play in extended ball until the short season teams kick off and have him play at Bluefield. I don't think he loses that much professional game experience, but the instruction at that age is probably more important. The word seems to be that he's going to have some opportunity to play at Southern Miss which both opens him up to injury and if he plays well the potential he forgoes baseball altogether. College Football can be physically demanding and I hope the Jays have some say in how he works out at college. The muscle development encouraged by football teams and that by baseball are much different. It might be something to watch when he comes back to us next year. The Jays have added another athlete to the organization, but the risks here are significant.

Shane Dawson is a smallish left hander who doesn't seem to have any four year college commit and will likely sign if offered money. There is some video of him on Youtube. He's got a clean delivery and has grown a bit in the last few years. There's some room it would seem for him to grow a bit more. I haven't seen any recent velocity readings, but I imagine from the arm speed and from youtube stopwatch readings he probably has a fastball than works in the 85-87 range at the moment, but has touched 90. He went to the Prairie Baseball Academy.

I would be in the camp that believes there were other players that could have been taken instead of Alford that would be a lot more committed to baseball. I can't blame them for wanting him, but I agree with a lot of you in saying that it significantly cuts development time.

If you go with the maximum savings on 4th-10th round picks, you cover the reported overslot signings with Smoral and De Jong. With Nay, Gonzales and Wasilewski reportedly signing for close to slot, the Alford signing leaves us $425 K short. (All figures are approximate). Stroman looks to be wanting $2.0+ MM, another over-slot signing. The only place enough under-slot savings can come from is Davis. $1.25 MM looks like his max. To sign any picks after the 10th round, who won't take slot, need more savings from Davis and A.A. going over budget the approximately $440 K. He will be lucky to sign more than 3.

I really enjoyed this draft. Thanks to Sam & Kelekin for the terrific job informing us on the talent.

I also enjoyed the creative strategy of AA and the suggestions of Bauxites on how to maximize value. Some really great approaches by you guys.

Tinnish has explained in the Chisholm interview parts of the process as he calls it. From what he has said, finances are key and he cannot tell what will actually happen and for how much money. My understanding is step 1, Round 4-10 signings are to be done quickly so that available $ is established. Step 2 is to negotiate with the protected picks, this will establish how much $ is still available for over slot signings in round 11-40.

IMO keeping a running total on actual signings for accurate $ is a great idea. U all know how rumors turn out.

The Fan 590 interview should be available on the website almost as soon as it's done.
With the Senior signing savings plus the over-budget availability compiled, all signings reported to date appear covered. Our first round picks and all picks after round 10 are still to be determined. That may be difficult.

Thank you again. The feedback is much appreciated. Finch, it will be interesting to follow the Soler story. He will likely sign here in the next week or two to avoid the new rules that come into effect this July 2. The reports are he's an impressive physical specimen with some very impressive tools. The money though that he's reported to be asking I think puts the Jays out based on how they assess "value" for prospects. I find it hard to believe the Jays put a $20-30 million dollar figure on a 20 year old prospect, when they'll feel a similar prospect can be had a couple weeks later or in the draft for a fraction of the price.

Richard, thank you for your updates on signed prospects. My spreadsheet on the rumoured signings suggest that there will need to be money freed up from the potential Davis signing. Until the numbers are confirmed though I'll reserve the grand pronouncements on what the Jays can or can't do.

There has not been any officially announced signings and dollars values. Jays have several HS guys drafted rounds 11 and on. The signing of most of these guys depends what happens earlier in the draft. Does AA not make any official announcements until he has already dealt with rounds 11 through 40. All of AA deals wiegh heavily on leverage. Example if round 15 guys knows whats left in the pool he can use it. Let me know if I am wrong here but most the guys after round 10 are nice picks with some upside. Probably they are not of the stature Dean, Lopes and such from last years draft. I know there are a lot of rumours out there on what the picks are accepting, but rumours and the Blue Jays tend not to be an accurate fit. A 100,000 dollars here and there means a lot to some these guys. Remember the first 100,000 is free. Just a thought. I am intrigued on what happens with Soler. The silence is golden

A.A. can announce (or however it's done) which 11 to 40 picks have signed for slot. That has zero bearing on any other signing, as it affects none. Any other picks that have signed for slot can be announced as it too matters little to other signings. A.A. can't hide this very long, not with twitter and it's like.

Thanks Gerry.
I appologize as I should have remembered that.
Trying to do do this on an iPhone, working a 12hr shift outside with temperature all day in mid to low teens and a 40-50 K wind is difficult.
Avoiding 15-30 mm of rain was wonderful.
Gerry's post improved my day immensely.

Spreadsheet software is great Sam. I imagine others are using it also.

Is anyone putting a talent evaluation beside any talented low picks.

Looking back at 2010&11, D Thon was a signed (win) gamble, $1.5mil. C Lopes (7) & M Dean (13) also gambles won, but this was under the old No Cap format. K Bryant (18) was a lost gamble, maybe they could not agree on the $, and losing the 18 pick of any draft is not serious.

I posted a while back that a lot of HS later picks in 2010 were not signed, in 2011 more College picks were made with the low picks & signed. In 2012 we are back to a lot of HS picks in the low rounds. So how would Daniel Zamora (27) be ranked for example or anyone.

Looking at rounds 24-30 in 2011 there is a nice mix of HS JR & SR chosen. My purpose is analysis & strategy based on the new rules. I believe Rosado got paid a lot over $100,000 (unsure) so maybe he is the gamble that AA won. The others probably all signed for under the $100,000 amount.
Maybe AA picked some gambles this year. D Loveless has a lot of speed and may have come cheap.

This draft pushed back the talent we used to get in the 4th to 10th rounds into the 11th to 17th rounds. So my concern is who are priority signs in this area? The 18th to 28th round picks were what was the 11th - 20th, are we missing anyone important here?

Why do you say this draft pushed back the talent Richard? This was a weak draft, and so the type of talent we normally got in rounds four through ten would not have been available in this years draft in those rounds. And why would the same type of talent be available in round eleven? While the Jays and a number of teams drafted seniors after drafting difficult to sign guys early on, only a handful of teams followed this strategy, and no one else followed it as strictly as Toronto. Other teams were drafting quality players in those rounds while we were signing seniors on the cheap.

When I look at this write up from baseball America, it looks to me as though we surely did not attract the same calibre or prospects in rounds eleven and beyond. Looking at the draft from a strictly quantitative view, despite the extra picks, Toronto finished the at the low end of the range in terms of top prospects.

Anyway, the names they have listed after Nay are Lopez, Turner, Kellogg, and Irvin.

Is the BA Top 500 quantity the best way to judge this? We got seven in the top 100 and are all likely to sign. Should we have taken more chances outside of the top 10 rounds? I don't know about that, as we took more high schoolers than pretty well any other team after the 10th round.

Either way, I fail to see the merit of that argument. Quantity also does not take into consideration the amount of players who -will- sign. All these guys taking back up plans in the last 5-10 rounds? There's no guarantee on that.

Did I ultimately agree with the 4th-10th round strategy? Maybe not. I think they could've taken some college juniors in the mid to back end of the top 500 that would've signed for reasonable amounts.

But here's BA's dlsclaimer which effectively says that at this point on paper, Toronto had a Top 5 draft (which, if they didn't, would be disappointing considering the number of picks):

In no way is this list a reflection of how well each team drafted. For
example, the Blue Jays only had 11 of our Top 500, but they selected
five of the top 45 prospects. Obviously, another caveat is that these
players still need to sign before any real conclusions can be drawn.
This year, teams will have up until 5 p.m. ET on July 13 to sign their
players. Until then, some conclusions that can be drawn are that the
Blue Jays, Twins, Cardinals, Astros, and Pirates all had very good
drafts. They each had six of our top 100 prospects.

Kelekin. I wasn't making a statement about the success of the draft -- just pointing out that we most certainly did not get the same type of talent (or anything close) in rounds 11 though 16 that we would normally get in rounds 4 through 10. Richard mentioned that this draft pushed the talent back six rounds, and I asked why.

But to your point, if you truly think the draft is a total crapshoot, a volume drafting approach has at least something to commend it. Even if you prefer quality over quantity (and who doesn't), you are giving something up when you take a pass on 7 of the first ten rounds of a draft.

I don't see the point of focusing on certain rounds. At the end, the draft will be judged on the players who signed. The Pirates took the best players available to them, but their draft pool is around 6 million and they will not go a penny over as that would cost them their revenue sharing money.

Once upon a time, long, long ago, some really immensely bright lights created the personal computer. Many, many years later, after a really full and interesting life, Job Description rears it's ugly head and I discovered the PC. As a result, my curiosity knows no bounds. I don't want to know, I need to know.

Did I find someone who thinks our 4th round pick is better than our 11 th round pick? Some picks and some undrafted free agents are signed because bodies are needed to fill roster spots. Some picks and UFA's are signed because they are or might be REALLY good. Some picks are harder decisions. Those interest me. I don't care if they don't interest anyone else.Thank you very ------- much.

Richard. Either I don't understand you or you don't understand me (or maybe you're responding to something else). Actually I thought you had made an interesting point, and was asking you to explain it. I certainly wasn't calling you out.

My only point is that there are potentially very large costs associated with punting seven rounds of a ten round draft. The talent we missed out on in those rounds is gone, and gone for good. It is very unlikely that we recoupped it in rounds 11 and onward. Now we can only hope that the increased quality of our picks offsets the diminished quantity.

I agree that at this point, we can only sit back and watch and hope it works out.

There's nothing magical about the BA 500. It's just one (flawed) way of assessing the volume of top propsects we drafted.

I am looking at OF picks. J Anderson & D Smith...C Hawkins and this years D Davis & A Alford. Also K Wilson in 2008. They were all picked in the top 3 rounds and so would have been protected. As well I have no choice but to trust our drafting dept. Wilson May have been the only pick for low signing consideration, which is a strategy of some kind.

They all lack 1 or 2 tools... ie power for K Wilson & D Smith but they both have 1 outstanding tool Wilson's speed & Smith's Hit for average. Wilson's youth, speed & defense gives him a shot as a 4th OF. But they must have thought that he could lean th hit for Avg and so become a regular. I cannot see Smith as a 4th OF so he has to hit enough to become a regular LF.

Sometimes you miss out on your player eg Brett Lawrie & B Wallace. So I wanted OF Nick Williams, the Griffey comp sold me. He went #93 to Texas so we could have had him instead of Chase DeJong or any previous picks. I don't know enough to say how he compares with our picks to substitute 1 pick.

As mentioned we could have had a talented pick with our 4th round pick, but I do not know who I would take. N Williams was my choice but I lost out. So assuming I was going for "the best player available", I now have to sign him or lose both the pick & the $308,700.
I know the following about my 4th pick:-
1) Who is available.
2) What $ they are asking.
3) My $ figure for each of the available picks.
4) I will lose some choices that I like because someone else will pick them.

So if someone dropped that was worth it then I gamble, with that 4th round pick.So Mills or Zep, Brisker or Thames, Goins or Schimpf and still hoping for Hutch to be available in the 11th round.
What ever Hutch wanted, I believe he signed for $400,000. IMO we got very lucky.
So I guess G Heyman & R Kellog are the guys. They have to be considered good enough to pick and be paid over $100,000, lets say $250,000 to $400,000. I am not waiting until the 15th round, because the pickings will be slimmer.
I also know that I am risking picks in rounds 1-3 being unsigned due to $ available. But they are protected.
When the July 13th deadline passes there will be a list of unsigned players from the whole draft. I get my shot at them in the future.

A total of 6 that we want to see (the star quality) and 6 more who were of some value (Borders true value is hidden due to his biggest moments being in the 1992 World Series).

12 players who were worthwhile drafting over 35 drafts (feel free to cut down to 25-30 drafts if you wish to not count the most recent ones). That is less than one useful player from round 4-10 every two years and close to one per 3 year window. Mix in a weak draft class this year and not being able to go overslot and I don't see how it would've been worthwhile to blow a fortune or risk losing round 1-3 talent.

Round 1 all-time on its own for the Jays (even factoring in the horrid early Gillick years where there was a stretch from 1979 to 1989 with no one reaching 6 WAR and just 2 positive WAR's) produced 6 20+ WAR players, or as many as rounds 4-10 did for 10+ WAR guys. 4 more were 10+ guys. Round 2 had just 2 10+'s (David Wells & Derek Bell) while 3 had 3 more (Olerud/Key/Marcum). A total of 15 10+'ers (1 also had 6 2+, 2 had 3, 3 had 5 = 14 more useful guys) or more than the total for 2+'ers for rounds 4-10.

Saving money in rounds 4-10 to spend on rounds 1-3 is an extremely good policy if you are trying to find guys who will really help the major league team. To cut the budget on rounds 1-3 so you can sign more 4-10 guys is a losing strategy.

I don't necessarily disagree with you John, but it is not obvious to me that as a matter of strategy going into a draft this was the right move. It's even less clear to me that in this particular draft, with these particular players, it was the right move.

Think about it this way: by punting rounds four through 10, the Jays saved something in the area of 1.2 million (not certain, but my best guess). Now ask yourself, what did that 1.2 million dollars enable the Jays to do? We obviously don't know the answer to this (it's a bit like asking what one's tax dollars were spent on), but one way to think about it is to note that one million dollars of this amount was used to sign Matt Smoral to his overslot amount (so 200G was left over).

Looking at it this way the question becomes: is the difference between Matt Smoral and the player that otherwise would have been drafted for slot at the 50th pick (for reference Jesmuel Valentin was pick #51, and he signed for slot), worth punting rounds four through ten of the draft (plus an extra 200G?)? It is far from obvious to me that this is the right play.

Remember also that in this year's draft there was less incentive for good players to hold out until the very late rounds in hopes that they could still score a windfall. So apart from the teams punting rounds, players ought to have been drafted closer to their inherent values, making picks in rounds four through ten more valuable.

Disagree, Beyonder. Pay extra, go for the high upside. There's nothing worse than watching low upside guys failing as we're seeing with Jenkins and McGuire. And even if they succeed, would they be good enough to pitch in the AL East? And Jays scouts have found players with similar profiles to Valentin that were signed for a lot less than Supp round slot.

I don't know what you disagree with Hyperbole. I don't disagree with paying extra. It's not my money. Like you, I am also in favour of upside. But I don't think the trade-off is between high upside and low-floor. We don't need to talk about it in generalities like this becasue we can look at what they actually do with the money. It is between signing Smoral (and maybe part of Alford's deal) and punting the last seven picks in the first round. It may be the right move, but it's not a no-brainer.

Remember, Hutchison was drafted in the 15th round. He's precisely the type of player who could have fallen between rounds 4-10 in this years draft.

Comparing this year's draft strategy to past draft's and the relative success of picks in certain rounds is pointless considering how the rules have fundamentally changed the draft.

Mitch Nay also gets a $1 million. Right now it looks like the Jays are going to be taxed and might be very close to losing the first rounder. Unlikely that any of the guys drafted in rounds eleven onwards get above $100,000.

Assuming Gonzales signed for slot (which has been reported), my spreadsheet says that the Jays are currently $73K over, with DeJong and Stroman left to be signed. This also assumes the reported Smoral $2M signing and Alford at 2x slot. Tax-time?

I don't think it's pointless. I don't think direct comparisons are possible, but adjustments can be made. Do you disagree that Hutchison is the type of player who would have fallen into rounds 4 through 10?

But forget that issue, because you've raised a better one. If the Jays incur the penalty and lose next year's first-rounder (on top of the financial penalty), does anyone then like the strategy? That's a hell of a price to pay for the difference between Smoral and his replacement, plus 200G of wiggle room.

If Hutch were in this year's draft he would have been drafted after round 10 and had to sign for $100,000 grand or go to college. He was a skinny kid with an awkward delivery and a high-80s fastball that touched low-90s out of high school. Keep in mind that 29 other teams either didn't like what they saw or balked at $400,000.

Beyonder, it had nothing to do with the next highest bonus in a round. Teams start selecting guys at that point willy-nilly who they think they might be worth taking a run at. It so happened that Hutch went in the 14th. He probably could have gone much higher or much lower. The old system was the wild west and beyond the first couple rounds where there was compensation, guys got picked based on what teams felt were the best combination of bonus demands and talent. Teams clearly did not think Hutch's talent at that point and future projection was worth $400,000. He has since proven them wrong.

If we lose a 1st round pick, we lose the player and the $1.5-2mil that would have been budgeted.
This is not right. If Alford is causing it, then he should have been picked higher. Same with Smoral. Not signing Stroman moves the pick & budget to 2013, so don't sign him only if his overslot extra amount affects the team penalty.

How players are ranked are immaterial to me. All my life, my passion was numbers, nothing more, nothing less. I was interested in how we would value the picks 355 and on. Which High School (17-18-19 yrs) picks would accept slot (3 apparently) and who A.A. would still go after. Right now, things look bleak. Stroman has given little indication he is signing - and for how much - exactly? De Jong has indicated he will sign, but for how much - exactly?

Total approximate savings, $1.2 MM for picks 81-325; $250 K from Davis; a possible $440 K in over-budget savings equal just less than $1.9 MM. Over-slot signings of Smoral and Nay eat up $1,115,900.00, just leaving $770 K for Alford's and Gonzales' actual numbers. It's apparent no one else in the 11-40 range signs, at least until July. If Stroman and De Jong do sign, who's over-, at, or under-slot and by how much? Can we get accurate Alford and Gonzales numbers, over-, at, under-slot and by how much?

If A.A. goes beyond 4.9999999999999999% in over-budget, into draft pick loss territory he's not stopping at 5.01%. He can go to 9.99999999999% over-budget at that level once he's finally over 5.0%.

What we should calculate is not signing Stroman (pick still protected next year) and go over-budget 9.9999999999%. Who else does he sign?

Stroman will sign. He may be playing hard-ball but he literally has nothing to gain from not signing. He was passed up despite great stuff and great results because he is 5'9; and he's not going to suddenly get any taller next year. In my opinion the reason why the Smoral deal has not been made "official" is because it is obviously so over-slot that they dont want to alienate Stroman or even DeJong. DeJong probably signs for ~$800-850k IMO.

Smoral can go to College/University for the next three years and hope he betters his draft number, all the while not earning a cent playing ball, piling up some debt. At this points, he's still at least 2-4 years away from the Majors. Or he signs now for in excess of $1,000,000.00, plays Professional Baseball for three years, earning interest on his money and closer to the majors now.

Stroman knows what Seniors signed for in this and in future drafts. He's one year away from being a 5'9" Senior, and was passed by by 21 teams before Toronto took him. He will be under-slot by a lot, because we are his last chance.

Stroman has all of the leverage at this point. He may have nothing to
gain from not signing, but he knows the jays have everything to lose by
not signing him.

This is absolutely wrong. What do the Jays have to lose? They have 1 other first round pick and 3 supplemental first round picks. The pick is protected. The team has so many high picks that even without Stroman you're looking at a strong draft.

Yeah, this isn't even remotelyaccurate. Stroman will sign for around slot. He will not sign for "well under-slot"...why would he sign for well under slot? Every college JR drafted in the 1st round will be a SR next year, that doesn't mean that they have no options and will sign for whatever scraps the drafting team throws at them.

What do the jays have to lose? You mean besides one of the best and most advanced arms in the draft? The favour of its fans for failing to sign a first rounder for the second year in a row in an attempt to get by on the cheap? How about his slot allocation? Fail to sign Stroman and the size of the pooled cap number is reduced by his allotment (about 1.75 million if I recall). This would reduce the overall size of our cap to just over 7 million. This would in turn reduce the size of our 5 percent overage from 440G to just over 350G. Gives you even less of a margin of error when trying to avoid forfeiting next years first rounder. He has all the leverage. He will get slot or something close.

Stroman is not their first round pick, he's their second first round pick #22, which becomes #23 next year is he doesn't sign, giving A.A. options.

Seniors can sign for whatever a team offers them to play Professional Baseball, sometime very little, because they are no longer Prospects. They can play Independant League Baseball for peanuts and regrets. Or he can get a beginning job just like most Graduates.

A.A. may offer slot, but he can offer $750 K for Stroman to sign. Stroman has options, mostly poor ones. If A.A. can save a $1.0 MM on Stroman, he will as it gives him options.

I would love for you to be right Richard, but I don't see many other first round juniors signing for the discount you are describing. I think the slot reccomendations give the players more leverage than many people realise. Unless there's a pre-arranged understanding, there's not much opportunity for the kind of hard bargaining you're describing.

I wasn't arguing that he'd get way under slot. Stroman has leverage to get around slot. He DOES NOT have any leverage to demand $2+ million. We will not give up a future first round pick to sign him. With the new rules; what can the fans complain about? Nothing. We will spend our entire budget and will most likely go into the 5% tax as well; if the kid wants to be irrational and demand more than we can pay then there is nothing that can be done. Good luck to him next year and we'll take the pick in 2013.

The argument is moot as he will sign, as I have pointed out, because it would be utterly stupid of him to not sign.

Giving A.A. options... everything A.A. does is to give himself as many options as possible.

A.A. must save money with the Stroman signing. This is an option. To do it anyother way limits who A.A. can sign. Sam probably has the best read on the numbers the signings entail and their implications.

Not signing Stroman is an option, meaning A.A. can go 9.9999999% over-budget instead of just 4.9999999%, because he'll still have a first round pick he can't lose (#23).

4.999% over-spending amount goes to cover Alford. ~$1.2 million saved from rounds 4-10: $1 million goes to Smoral, $200k goes to DeJong. Gonzalez's underslot covers Nay's overslot (they cancel each other out). Stroman signs for slot, Davis signs underslot for $1.75 million. Net total? We have $250k (savings from Davis) to go after another 1 or 2 of the kids drafted after the 10th round.

I'm not sure why you keep claiming that the Jays "HAVE TO" save all this money for some reason when the math works itself out easily. The kids drafted after the 10th round are after-thoughts; the team is not going to sacrifice a top 3 round selection in order to sign more of those post-10 round guys. You seem to be under the impression that the Jays must sign a shit-load of those post-10th round kids when in reality you'll see maybe 1 or 2 of the "harder to sign" kids get done. If you look at my rudimentary estimate above; we'd be able to offer ~$350k to whoever wants to take it.

Not signing Stroman is an option, meaning A.A. can go 9.9999999%
over-budget instead of just 4.9999999%, because he'll still have a first
round pick he can't lose (#23).

Is this true? I was under the impression that failing to sign a player deducts their slot value from this year's allotment, and since the pick is protected, that would be moved to next year. The only way they have 9.9% to 'play' with is if they decide to give up next year's first round pick.

I've seen so many conflicting reports, i'm a hair's breath away from reading the CBA myself.

Is this true? I was under
the impression that failing to sign a player deducts their slot value
from this year's allotment, and since the pick is protected, that would
be moved to next year. The only way they have 9.9% to 'play' with is if
they decide to give up next year's first round pick.

Failing to sign a pick does deduct from your bonus pool. What he is suggesting is choosing to not sign Stroman on purpose. This would give us 2 first round picks in next year's draft; thus we could sacrifice our one pick and go 9.9% over with this year's signings and still have a first round pick next year (the compensation for not signing Stroman).

Failing to sign a pick does deduct from your bonus pool. What he is suggesting is choosing to not sign Stroman on purpose. This would give us 2 first round picks in next year's draft; thus we could sacrifice our one pick and go 9.9% over with this year's signings and still have a first round pick next year (the compensation for not signing Stroman).

I know - but that doesn't make sense. Because that means, say slot is 1.5 million, 1.5 million to spend in 2012, and then 1.5 million to spend in 2013...i thought the whole point of getting easy-to-sign-for-nothing guys in the 4th round instead of taking hard to sign guys and hard-balling everyone was that if you don't sign someone, you don't get the bonus slot allotment...you effectively reduce your pool to spend, but shift it to the following year. That's what i was asking, but i don't see the section in the cba that talks about this

Not signing Stroman is an option, meaning A.A. can go 9.9999999% over-budget instead of just 4.9999999%, because he'll still have a first round pick he can't lose (#23).

All you're doing here is deferring this year's first round pick until next year. It doesn't give the Blue Jays any additional options because they're not actually gaining anything. You're trying to make it sound as if it gives the team an extra pick to sacrifice, but that's not the case.

TjCaino. I don't think that's quite right. The overslot amount is 5 % of your total bonus pool. Your bonus pool shrinks if you don't sign Stroman by about 1.75 million. The teams overslot amount would shrink from about 440G to 355G.

still unclear. so the pirates could use the appel slot money to sign their picks this year, and then the 9th pick again next year (plus who/wherever else they take)?

I'm not sure if you're still unclear, but no. If the Pirates don't sign Appel (or the Jays don't sign Stroman) that money vanishes from their bonus pool this year. The team can't apply that $2 million (or whatever the figure is) to other players free of charge. If they spent that extra $2 million on other draftees, they would go overbudget and face whatever penalty is appropriate. Instead, the slot money is taken away, but the Pirates would get the 9th pick next year and the appropriate slot money for that pick.

As several of us have pointed out, this is but one reason why not signing Stroman and going overbudget on the other picks would be a really poor move, because the Jays lose his money, lose a first round pick next year and, by going over 10% instead of 5%, gain a few hundred thousand to sign a couple of projects taken in Round 11 onwards. It's not a good trade-off.

There may be very limited circumstances where sacrificing a first-round pick to go over makes sense, but they are very limited. (Such as if it was necessary to sign a prospect like Bryce Harper, but even then it'd probably be preferable just to draft college seniors and give Harper all the money that you didn't give those players.) This surely isn't one of them.

Smoral, De Jong, Nay and Alford appear to be signed and for over-slot monies.
Davis, Gonzales appear to be signed and for under-slot monies.
Silviano, Wasilewski, Dawson, Flores, Jones, Turner, Pascazi, Lebleijian, Klein, Chung, Saez and Valeriote appear to be signed and for slot monies.
Donahue, Delatte, Phillips, Parmley, Frawley, Leyland and Azor appear to be signed and for hugely under-slot monies generating big savings.
Signing Stroman for over-slot will never happen. Signing Stroman for slot takes away options for A.A. Not signing Stroman gives A.A. options. Signing Stroman for under-slot gives A.A. options.
Of the many options for A.A. a few should be mentioned. Not going over-budget enough to lose a draft picks is one. Having the monies to sign picks in rounds 11-40 is another.
This is ALL about options and having them.

Also keep in mind that there is a reputation effect for the Jays. By playing tough with Stroman, the Jays risk losing him this year. But next year players know that the Jays are serious when they say they don't care about waiting one year.

If I had to guess, the Jays are trying to get him somewhat under slot to get at least one of the tough later rounds HS players signed. As others have mentioned, they could offer an August/Sept call up as sweetener but Stroman might just want to see the cash.

I can see why Stroman might not want to sign for less than slot. Some observers think he was a relative bargain at #22 (BA ranked him #10 among draft prospects). He's probably not crazy about getting less than, say, Smoral. Or foregoing slot money so that the Jays can reallocate it to other picks.

As several of us have pointed out, this is but one reason why not signing Stroman and going overbudget on the other picks would be a really poor move, because the Jays lose his money, lose a first round pick next year and, by going over 10% instead of 5%, gain a few hundred thousand to sign a couple of projects taken in Round 11 onwards. It's not a good trade-off.

It's also worth noting that the Stroman pick was compensation for not signing Tyler Beede. If I understand the changes to the draft correctly, the pick will vanish if goes unsigned three years in a row. That means the Blue Jays wouldn't have much leverage with the guy they take with that pick next year, and might need to settle for a player who is easily signable rather than going with the best talent at that spot. Even if next year's draft is deeper, there's a good chance that the player they wind up with at 23 isn't as good as Stroman.

Unless Stroman's bonus demand is high enough to completely handcuff the team's ability to sign potentially better players or result in the forfeiture of future picks, it doesn't make much sense to leave him unsigned.

If the Jays get the 20th pick next year because 19 teams were worse than them. Then 2 teams failed to sign picks, so our choice becomes #22. Then 5 teams lose their picks as a penalty then we should get the 17th pick in 2013 and the budget amount is higher. So somehow not signing Stroman could in theory give you a higher pick & more money to spend. Right?

In Saturday's (June 9th) Toronto Sun, Bob Elliot quoted Jim Callis of Baseball America on Anthony Alfords signing..., "Callis reports that the signing bonus is in the slotted $424,000 US allotment for the 112th pick in North America"

Perhaps Alford signed at or below slot.

Also, I believe Marcus Stroman's draft selection is not protected. The Jays got the 22nd draft pick because they were unable to sign Tyler Beede last year. I think I read somewhere that a first round draft pick is only protected once. I believe if Stroman is not signed the Jays will not get a draft pick next season.

I think it is more about what is Stroman worth to the Jays and what does he think he is worth. A verbal non-written (as those wouldn't be allowed iirc) agreement to call him up in September would be extremely valuable as that would do a few things that bonus' cannot.A) get his service time startedB) get his 3 option years startedC) let him reach free agency (aka mega bucks) a lot earlier

Those are powerful incentives to sign. However, under the CBA you cannot give a roster slot as part of the deal except for 2 way players and even then I think special conditions apply. A helpful thing for the Jays is how he is viewed as nearly MLB ready in the pen so you could put him in the minors (say, A+ for 3 weeks, AA for 3 AAA for 3) and let him show that he is ready already first then call him up in September. Mix in the weak pen this year and it would be even easier to 'sell' it to MLB so they don't fine or punish the Jays for breaking the rules. Use him in the pen this year to save his arm a bit, then send him to AA in 2013 to start unless he pitches amazing out of the pen, in which case you stretch him out as best you can in spring and try to limit his starts in the majors or use him for multiple innings as often as possible all year before pushing him to start in 2014.

The trick is finding the 'magic button' for him and for most it is 'how fast can I get to the majors'.

i was confused last night because the document doesn't deal with the Rule 4 Draft, but it does outline the similar enough rules for an "international draft" as those which have been spoken of regarding the rule 4. jim callis was able to clear up the specific question i had regarding what happens to the bonus pool in the event that a pick goes unsigned, but i was unable to find anything in that document to the same effect using good old ctrl-f and the keywords i thought might get me there.

That is the basic agreement between the players and the league. The MLB Rules (which govern the Rule four draft) are something else.

The summary document Richard refers to is purely a summary of some of the relevant changes to the MLB Rules (including Rule 4) and the Basic Agreement.

I have asked around, and don't seem to be able to find a copy of the MLB Rules. It appears as though the vast majority of the media are comfortable reporting on the changes to the Rules without having actually read them.

Ah - thank-you for the clarification. That the Rule 4 is not part of the CBA makes sense on a certain level - it's not like the MLBPA would be the first union to push low-seniority issues to the side.

I was on the mlb.com site, but the copy of the rules is from 2011 and didn't contain a section on the drafts anyway. I think I've seen the old version online before, as i distinctly remember reading up on the Rule 5 Draft at some point.

In any case, I share the impression that most reporting has been done by those who have not seen/read the rules themselves. I don't feel bad admitting that it's left me perplexed at times, and unsure at others.

When the new CBA came out our #22 pick became protected for another year. All other picks of this year are protected for two years. Every year, approximately 10 teams are placed in a pool to draft to draft 5 extra picks in the new first supplemental rounds and 5 picks in the new 2nd sup. rd. (Toronto will never be one of those teams). Picks lost will go into this pool.

The competitive balance draft picks will be very interesting as those can be traded but not for cash considerations as I understand it - easy to see the Jays being deep into chasing down those 6 picks. For international free agents you can trade for cap space but only can increase your spending by 50% total.

A shame MLB doesn't allow draft pick trading generally though - easy to see AA going nuts for them by clearing out a few prospects or MLB players he doesn't intent to hold onto in the future.

Now that is a great question hypobole. I know MLB had a 3 'type A' limit in the past (thus you could end up with a 3rd round pick for losing a type A player). I wonder if it is adjusted so you cannot sign draft pick compensation players if you don't have a draft pick? That would really put the pressure on teams like the Yankees as otherwise they'd could go nuts every 3rd year on draft picks then sign free agents inbetween at a cost of 2nd or 3rd round picks.

Not signing your first rounder is -always- a bad decision. Always. That's a year where no player is selected or developed, in hopes that the player you pick next year has a better chance of panning out. It's a stupid decision to not sign a 1st rounder just to have money to sign some late-rounders.

The answer to this question is in the Basic Agreement. If you lose a qualifying free agent, you are awarded an extra pick in the sandwich round after round one. That pick is not the signing team's pick though. The pick is created out of air and is based on reverse win-loss record of the free-agent-losing team.

The signing team forfeits their pick (their highest available selection-- could be a fifth round pick technically), but they do not "give" it to anyone.

Fair warning Kelekin: for the crime of saying "always", you are about to be shouted down with platitudes about "the only absolute is there are no absolutes."

I'm apoplectic that Stroman hasn't signed. The draft was last week, and 5 complete business days have transpired since then. Further, the team has only until July 13 to sign him which means that the signing period is largely over. Finally, the long gap between the announcement yesterday of 22 signings, and this afternoon, is indicative of a lackadaisical attitude toward signing draft picks on the team's part, and evidence that they do not intend to sign Stroman.

'TjCaino. I don't think that's quite right. The overslot amount is 5 % of your total bonus pool. Your bonus pool shrinks if you don't sign Stroman by about 1.75 million. The teams overslot amount would shrink from about 440G to 355G.'

Good point.

Although, the over slot amount will be regained next year along w the pick.

I don't expect AA to put himself in a position where he has to sign anyone. For example, needing to sign Stroman for his over slot amount due to other over slot agreements.

With regards to *always* signing first round picks - the team has to be willing to stick to its guns. While I'm sure AA would be upfront with saying 'we picked you, we want you in a uniform'; I'm sure he would also be very civil if a mutually beneficial agreement cannot be reached, and wish the player all the best.

With regards to *always* signing first round picks - the team has to be willing to stick to its guns. While I'm sure AA would be upfront with saying 'we picked you, we want you in a uniform'; I'm sure he would also be very civil if a mutually beneficial agreement cannot be reached, and wish the player all the best.

Well said, and completely right, at least in my opinion. One of the messages Anthopoulos made clear last year with Beede was that he wouldn't be overcome by a 'sign at all cost' mentality where the player (or his hidden agent) fills in the amount and the team cuts the cheque.

Baseball America has a running Tab on each teams spending on the draft. It shows that the Jays are 530900 under budget with three to sign. Stroman, Smoral, and DeJong to sign. Does that mean the Jays have 530,900 plus approx 440,000 (4.9 percent over budjet tax) = approx 1,000,000 to spend with out paying tax.

I think that's the idea SJE, bit I'm not sure how accurate they are. If you look they don't actually have figures for Alford (and I haven't heard a firm number). If Alford signs for overslot, things get very scary.

Smoral reportedly has a one million overslot deal. This puts us into the tax. DeJong figures he is going to get paid "like a first rounder".

If those numbers are accurate, we are on the precipice of losing a pick. If we lose a pick, this strategy (that is getting applause from everywhere), was a total failure.

Baseball America has a running Tab on each
teams spending on the draft. It shows that the Jays are 530900 under
budget with three to sign. Stroman, Smoral, and DeJong to sign. Does
that mean the Jays have 530,900 plus approx 440,000 (4.9 percent over
budjet tax) = approx 1,000,000 to spend with out paying tax.

No, that total is how we stand AGAINST our SLOT value. It absolutely does not mean that we only have $530,900 left to spend. What it means is that we are currently sitting at $530,900 under slot.

Sorry, I didnt explain myself very well. I might to say that the Jays have, if you include amount above slot allowed before losing draft picks, apporximately 1,000,000 ABOVR slot to spend. I dont think AA is worried about paying tax,

Stroman, Smoral, De Jong, Alford and Kellogg are the priority signings for A.A. going forward. By the way, isn't Gonzales signed? The maximum amount (over-slot) of money A.A. has to spend, without losing a draft pick is approximately $1.0 MM, not enough. Kellogg will be $350 K- $400 K over-slot. Alford will be $330 K- $400 K over-slot. De Jong will be $200 - $300 K over-slot. Smoral will be $1.0 MM over-slot. Stroman can be under-slot.

We can sign Smoral, De Jong, Alford and Kellogg with funds available and good A.A. bargaining. I don't think we can sign Stroman.

They'll all sign, Richard. The only possible question mark is Kellogg...but seeing as Alford signed for $750K, and assuming all other signings go as expected the Jays should have about $289K in surplus (including the 4.99% overage). That means they would be able to off Kellogg up to $389K or so. That should be enough to get it done.

Why not? The Jays have the full sot available for him. If they don't sign him, that money cannot be moved to other people. And slot should do it since there is no point for him in holding out for more. We won't grow 4 inches and become a top 10 pick within a year.

My guess the holdup is more about his role (I read somewhere that his agent said he wants to close) than about money. If the Jays agree to use him as an RP, he could be up this year bringing him even more money.

If he wants to close then that automatically decreases his value to the organization and they might actually be able to work out a below slot deal (with the incentive of him getting a call-up in September).

Maybe Stroman's agent wants a Chris Sale type understanding, where he would be called up in Sept. & have his service clock start - Sale signed a below slot deal in exchange for that understanding & the Jays/Stroman may be haggling about that - if the jays can get a significant price reduction in exchange for a callup, I think that's a good deal as Stroman is already regarded as near ML ready as a Reliever and that money would help the jays sign more upside draftees

I have a problem with BA's numbers as reported on this site. All under-slot signings (Davis, Gonzales, Donahue, Dellatte, Phillips, Parmley, Frawley, Leyland and Azor) total to approximately: $1,566,000.00. All reported over-slot signings (Nay and Alford) total to approximately $441,500.00. The math doesn't work unless some picks in the 11-40 rounds are over-slot. (If it is possible, could someone please check.)

Total value of slot for Stroman, Smoral and De Jong is: $3,420,300.00. Add in adjusted under-slot savings of: $1,124,500.00 for a total signing pool of $4,544,800.00 still available. Explain how I'm wrong.

I'm ignoring any over- budget monies as necessary to sign picks after round 10, at this point and time.

The bonus pool plus the 5% I assume the Jays are willing to over by is $9,272,430. What do we know or assume:

Davis $1,750,000

Smoral $2,000,000 (assume)

Nay $1,000,000

Gonzales $750,000

Alford $750,000

7 seniors assume $35,000

Total committed $6,285,000. Amount available assuming Stroman and DeJong sign - $2,987,430 less whatever the 2 sign for. We don't know what has been committed to the post round 10 signings. If they have committed amounts above the $100,000 then this would reduce the $2,987,430 available to Stroman and DeJong. If the 2 don't sign then the bonus pool is $6,731,025 including the 5%. This would leave $446,025 to sign players after round 10.

De Jong is asking for 1st Supplemental Round monies. Well, $857,200 is slot for last pick of the 1st Supplemental round so if he wants more, tell him "enjoy college". Alford #112 signed for $750,000.00. Gonzales #60 is signed for $750,000.00. Why not De Jong?

Smoral is a tough sign. Any savings on $2,000,000.00 will be well-earned. As an 18 year old LHP picked 50th, this is a must sign. We need to sign as many LHP as possible.

Stroman will be a 5'9" Senior next year and all that means for signing next year. If he wants over-slot let him go back to school. I'd give him $1,250,000.00-$1,500,000.00 but nothing more.

As an addendum. The Jays could safely commit $445,000 + $100,000 per signee to post round 10 players. This would leave $2,542,000 (approx max) or less to be split between Stroman and DeJong. They can give take it or leave it offers to those two not exceeding the $2,542,000 in total without fear of losing any future draft picks. Obviously, anything less than that will free up more money to sign post round 10 players.

Yeah, but you seem overly confused about reality and really dont seem to "get it" at all, thus this means very little. You'd be utterly stupid to not give Stroman slot money. #18 Michael Wacha and #20 Chris Stratton, both college JR RHP, both signed for the full slot amount. Neither is as talented as Stroman is. I find your overall opinion on nearly everything discussed to be ludicrous. On what planet does it make sense to offer one of the best arms in this draft $300k-$550k under-slot, and nothing more? Pull your self out of fantasy land.

Well MatO, everything I hear says Smoral signs for less than $2.0 MM. Everything I heard says it's slow going with negotiations. What, if anything, is going on? If Smoral takes $1.75MM, and/or De Jong takes $750 K, and/or Stroman takes $1.5 MM they would have signed by now.

East Rochester senior Trey Pascazi was selected by Toronto. Pascazi, a short stop and pitcher with the Bombers, will play for the Blue Jays Rookie League team in Clearwater, Fla. after his high school graduation.

High School picks have leverage - they can go to school first. Senior picks have no leverage - where can they go? Juniors are next year's Seniors. They have only as much leverage as a G.M. will give them. Welcome to the new CBA - less money to work with, means harder decisions. Juniors this seaon will get what is offered, rarely more.

A.A. wants options, so Stroman gets what is offered or becomes a Senior. Why offer slot (and receive no savings), especially this year? Just blame everything on the new CBA.

Trey Pascazi apparently accepted slot or it would get more press. Good for him. Toronto drafted 24 H.S. picks and has now signed their 6th of a probable 8 H.S. picks. Toronto has signed 13 of 13 Senior picks. Toronto drafted 7 Juniors/Community College picks and has signed 3. This is not a good record.

Unless Toronto gets more under-slot savings from Stroman, and less over-slot expenditures from Smoral and De Jong they will not be able to sign many more.

Jim Callis of Baseball America states the Jays have just under 1.9 Million in cap space (over slot budget). That total includes the 4.9% over budget with surrendering a draft pick. 3 big signees remaining. I would imagine the remaining picks in rounds 11 and beyond will be put on hold until the earlier picks are firmed up. The first 3 picks take priority over the latter picks.

Juniors are next year's Seniors. They have only as much leverage as a G.M. will give them.

Except that in real-life negotiation it doesn't work that way. Mark Appel is a JR; go ahead and offer him $2 million and say "Hahaha you have no leverage" and see what happens. I've already given you two examples of JR RHP drafted in the same range as Stroman who just signed for full slot...why didn't those GM's just offer them way under-slot? Surely those GMs want "options" as well; so why not low-ball those kids? Because teams dont want to defer a first round pick to the next year and lose the entire bonus allocated to the pick in an effort to save what, $200-300k?

A.A. wants options

A.A. also wants to sign all of his top picks. He's also not going to risk losing arguably the most talented player he drafted so that he can do what exactly? Have more "options" with regards to signing players who are nowhere near as talented as Stroman? How does that make sense in your mind? The hard-to-sign HS kids drafted after the 10th round are insurance policies, THATS IT. They are NOT going to throw Stroman away so that they can sign insurance-policies, and if you think otherwise you are completely clueless.

I think you're the only one who thinks Appel must sign, so I'm not sure why you're asking us to tell you why "he must sign." You're the only one insisting that as a junior he has no leverage and must take whatever Pittsburgh offers (despite also noting in the previous sentence that Pittsburgh will be disappointed if they don't sign him, which in and of itself would give Appel some degree of leverage). I (and imagine many) expect he will sign eventually, but we don't think he and his agent go into the negotiations without leverage.

High school players gamble that they won't suffer a serious injury when they decide to go to college instead of signing, but I haven't heard anyone suggest that high schoolers lack leverage.

2) Quitting School and signing a free agent contract with any one. But why go to School in the first place? MLB might not premit him to sign this year.

Assuming this aspect hasn't changed from past years, a drafted player doesn't become a free agent after failing to sign. Instead he re-enters the draft pool the following year. He only becomes a free agent if he then goes undrafted.

As for the kind of leverage someone like Stroman would have next year if the Blue Jays didn't sign him, you're making a mistake by comparing him to the college seniors the Blue Jays drafted in rounds 4 to 10. Stroman, being a near-ready major league pitcher, has considerably more value and would be in a far better bargaining position than those other guys (who are essentially fungible commodities).

Next year as a senior, I don't believe the signing deadline would apply to Stroman, so he could potentially hold out for more money until the following June while playing in an independent league somewhere. While he'd lose development time if he did hold out, his drafting team would also be hurt by losing the services of a potentially useful pitcher during that time, or by losing his rights altogether if he re-entered the draft the following year.

If college juniors had as little leverage as you're suggesting, how do you explain the big signing bonuses that they've received over the years? Being a college junior has never prevented a player from landing a big signing bonus, so long as the player has the talent to warrant such a bonus and is prepared to play hardball. For example, Luke Hochevar turned down almost $3 million as a junior after being selected 40th overall in 2005. He played independent ball for a year, went first overall in 2006 and then signed for an even larger amount. If your assertions were true, what happened with Hochevar shouldn't have been possible.

You can find past signing bonus numbers with a Google search. You should have taken the time to see what college juniors have typically signed for before drawing your conclusions on Stroman's possible bonus. The changes to the draft this year haven't stripped juniors of their bargaining power, and your statements on the leverage of college juniors don't mesh with what has historically been the case.

With this new draft system draftee's and agents have to understand there is only so much money a team can or is willing to spend..slot plus 4.9 % over budget, unless he is some kind of phenom and if he is he wouldn't slide to #8. Teams have to be willing to walk away and take the compensation.

Appel now has to July 15(?) to sign. If he wants more money he has to go back into the draft, play college or indy ball doesn't matter. What matters is he and his agent better make sure he doesn't get drafted any lower than #8 the following year to make back close to what he is being offered now.

Hochevar signed a Major League contract by KC... not allowed anymore. Undrafted players also have a budget of $100 grand

I guess someone can make a list of who that is unsigned will be available next year. I know that J Barett had to wait until this year because he did not sign in 2009 with the Jays. I wonder how that will work out.

True, but the point I was trying to make was that Hochevar, as a college junior who didn't sign, wound up getting more money after holding out for a year. While things might unfold a bit differently under today's rules, the current system still allows a talented junior to do something very similar and then hope for a bigger payday when he's re-drafted.

Most of the money Hochevar made was through his Major League contract with easily attained bonuses. That revenue option is now closed. A cap on monies to undrafted free agents and a slot system for bonuses, teams are no longer on an even playing field when it comes to signing draft picks. Unless a team is trying to low ball the draftee, it seems nearly impossible for a bigger payday going back into the draft.

Well ... Smoral and Kellogg are the two best LHPs drafted by them ... Smoral's signed, but injured, extremely unlikely to pitch before July 12th. Announcing his signing before then could hinder on-going negotiations. ...

The Jays site still lists 3 unsigned in the first 10 rounds, Stroman, Smoral, and DeJong. Smoral is signed but unofficially I guess as they are hiding his bonus from the others.

What about the others in the division? Using MLB's site...
Yankees: Just 2 signed out of 11 (2 second round picks)
Red Sox: 2 of top 5 picks signed, all round 4-10 signed
Rays: 5 of 10 signed, top 3 unsigned
Orioles: 4 of 10 signed, #3/8/9/10

No idea what it says at this point other than the Jays are being a lot quicker about getting names on the dotted line than their division rivals. Missing 2 of the top 3 looks bad, but knowing one did sign helps, plus signing 4 in the first 3 rounds no matter what (with a 5th likely signed) helps a lot.

Who you sign, and for what you sign that person for, depends on many things. Boston fans work be very vocal about any failure to do so, even if he was a Senior. Boston having enough problems this year.

How much Stroman and De Jong sign for depends on:

1) How much the Seniors in Rounds 4-10 actually sign for, to the penny, and the savings obtained (now approximately $1,208,800.00)?

2) How much of the approximately $2.0 MM Smoral actually signs for (possibly $1,900,000.00 +/- $100,000.00)?

3) Who of the picks after Round 10 does A.A. want to sign?

Who you sign and how much you sign them for depends, especially this year, on how much you want to do with, how little you have to do it. A 5`9`Junior, about to be a Senior, passed by by 21 teams (including this one), doesn`t have as much leverage as they think they do - only as much as the person signing him gives him.

By my count, the Jays have banked about $180K in slot money. If they sign both Stroman and DeJong, the Jays have about $3.4MM left to split between Stroman, DeJong and the 11th round and beyond guys.

Quick question: the guys signed from the 11th round and beyond, do the 1st $100,000 count against the pool? If a 12th round draft pick signs for $200,000, is that $200K against the pool or just $100K against the pool?

With the Official Unofficial Official announcement of the Smoral signing for exactly $2.0 MM, that means decisions have been made. Slot for Stroman plus De Jong: $2,420,300 with under-slot savings of approximately $450,100.00 gives A.A. $2,850,400.00 to work with. Any saving here would be appreciated. (Pick 22 could become pick 23 next year, if neccessary. Pick 81 could become pick 82 next year, if neccesary.)

Any over-budget allotment will be needed to sign picks after Round 10. Depending on what happens with Stroman and De Jong, A.A. will have $320,460.89 - $441,451.17 (with or without under-slot savings) available to sign those later picks. As only monies above Slot ($100,000.00) count against the budget, A.A. may only be able to sign 1 or 2 more picks.

Ryan Kellogg LHP, Ryan Borucki LHP look to be the favorites to be signed.

Gotta say, as an observer and not a participant the draft is a lot more interesting this year. It isn't a question of 'will the Jays blow the budget to sign everyone' but instead 'how will they allocate resources and sell kids on starting now'. Basically the budget is now public knowledge and is fair for all teams. Now what matters is creativity (signing guys round 4-10 for nothing to add bonus cash was a good example, might he punt round 3 as well if a very tough sign drops to the Jays next year?), knowledge (who will sign for under slot and is very talented), and ability to sell (convince hard signs that waiting is useless for example - having Beeston around helps as he seems like a killer salesman).

It'll be interesting once the final day for signing passes (July 13th). Also interesting is the international free agent signings which start July 2nd and are subject to very strict limits. Teams can trade to gain up to 50% of their budget as extra bonus money though which should make things a bit more interesting as well (I'd say odds are in favour of AA trading to get that extra bonus space). July 16th is also interesting as that is when AA can trade for 'competitive balance' draft picks for next season. All via MLB.com

A team has no/few choices but to take a Van Popple as he seemed to have everything, potential/talent wise.

Another example of a good talent is Olerud but he fell probably due to the brain anureism.

M Smoral has me intrigued. @ $1mil over slot (if the speculation is correct), he has used up a lot of our slot savings. He HAS to be good especially if he has caused some HS picks to be unsigned.
A lot of still unsigned picks from round 11-40 are HS picks. I do not know how good they are but I think Heyman & Kellog may have a reasonably high ceiling.

Stroman is a 5' 9" Senior reliever or a Blue Jay minor league Starter.
It is highly likely the problem in signing exists with Stroman. That
doesn't make sense as his alternatives are less than ideal.

Stroman is a JR not a SR. I know you keep saying he has no leverage but for some reason the Red Sox gave their pick, also a JR, an above slot deal and all teams give JRs lots of money all the time.

And don't tell me the Red Sox front office is scared of the fall out from the fans of they don't sign their 1st round pick. They are big boys and can handle the few articles written about it -- it's Boston, something else will happen the next day. If one front office has to be more careful it's the Jays'. First, their pick only has one year of protection left (since they already failed to sign their guy last year), meaning the Jays have no leverage next year and second, the Jays fans live much more of the hope and promise that are 1st round picks.

The reason these guys all have leverage is that they generate surplus value, at least in expectation. Once they sign, they need 6+ years of major league service time to get a market based salary. For example, if Stroman pitches out of the pen right away for 450k, he saves the Jays a few million each year. So he is bargaining to receive some of that surplus right now when he has the leverage of saying "screw you, I just don't sign". Sure, he'll be a senior next year but most likely the Jays also won't get a major league ready RP with an unprotected 22nd pick next year either. So he does have leverage.

Not going to touch your claim that Stroman has no leverage, which has been dealt with many times by a number of very patient posters, but your point about Stroman being "the problem" is an interesting one.

If the BA numbers are accurate, the Jays have dug a bit of a hole for themselves. The total slot allocation for the guys they have signed is approximately 6,410,000. They have agreed to pay out 6,286,000. So to sign Stroman and DeJong, they have 124G worth of wiggle room over and above the slot amounts. Dejong said "they are going to pay me like a first (presumably sandwich) rounder". So for purposes of illustration, let's take a figure from the middle of the sandwich round (say the 884G slot amount for Mitch Nay), and assume the Jays pay Dejong this amount (remembering that the actual number may be higher).

Adding up the slot amounts and the amounts paid, this puts the Jays about 140G over the cap (7170/7030), with Stroman left to sign. As the most developed arm in the draft (and a guy who likely thought he would go higher), I doubt he is going to settle for less than slot. This puts the Jays firmly into financial penalty territory. If Stroman is demanding more than slot, the Jays could be very close to forfeiting a draft pick. This is all without factoring in any overage we may have decided to pay Kellog et al. in rounds 10+

All this to say, we are watching a very high risk strategy play out. I think even if it works out it was the wrong strategy, but if we fail to sign our first rounder this year it will have to go down as an unqualified failure.

You get to pick again for Stroman & DeJong. Heyman & Kellogg if unsigned are total losses. This has to factor in the decision IMO. Also comparing the talent of these 4 players is a factor as is the penalties involved for going over budget.

I say do a take it or leave it offer for Stroman & DeJong, because you should get good talent from those picks next year also.

Since at this moment I feel down about this season, our 2013 pick could be a high one.

Stroman is a 5' 9" Senior reliever or a Blue Jay minor league Starter.

or - is rather definitive, something is one or the other. Apparently what I wrote is too complex for understanding by people who can't bother to think (too lazy?). Let's make it simpler. If Stroman signs, he's a Blue Jay minor league Starter as soon as he reports to work. If he doesn`t sign, he can`t sign with any one else for about 1 year, so he`ll finish his degree (or why go to school). That will make him a 5' 9" Senior reliever, because he`s too small to Start. One thing he no longer is - 5' 9" Junior reliever. And I firmly believe Stroman knows all his alternatives.

It is highly likely the problem in signing exists with Stroman.

Davis (H.S.) signs for $1,750,000.00 and Smoral (H.S.) signs for $2,000,000.00. Stroman`s slot is $1,800,000.00. He thinks he's an MLB-ready Reliever, while Blue Jays want him to start. Not only do I think Price is a problem, but so is Job Description. After all, we've signed our 1st round pick.

People must read at least the top summaries of the changes in the CBA. People on this site are educated, sometimes very. But some people are lazy, and won`t do the work. THE STROMAN PICK IS PROTECTED FOR 1 MORE YEAR. It becomes pick 23 next year.

I do not agree with BA numbers, but I don`t know where they are out. But:

1)When this (the above) list was done initially, I asked that all picks signed in rounds 11-40 be highlighted, but unless it was an over-slot signing, do not put up amounts because $100,000.00 was slot for all of them. I consider Gerry to be really on the ball on this site, so if it is not posted, it is not over-slot.

2)The best estimate on the closest to MLB I found suggest Senior under-slot signings (rounds 4-10) are $31,000.00 leaving a $1,213,800.00 surplus.

It is by a MjwW on Blue Bird Banter (third post down in the comment section). He has a well organized breakdown. He says they have 183.5k left, 'and up to $625K is they are willing to go up to the 4.9% overage'. I would be curious whether anyone disagrees with his figures.

Thanks for the financial analysis. Based on my reading of the CBA, i believe the 4.9999% overage is based on your total allocated Cap. So not sure it varies based on who you sign. (ie. about $441K regardless of scenario).

TJ.the main difference in MjwW's numbers and other, is an interpretation that as a 2 sport athlete, Alford's bonus can be discounted over 5 year, you get the fully cap hit, but get a reduction based on discount rate. this results in about a drop of $55K on the value of the $750K.... this does not seem recognised by BA.

John. I have never heard that before. It is certainly not in the CBA. It doesn't make much sense to me that you should be able to apply a discount rate to Signing bonuses for two sport athletes. what's the rate? Where is it stipulated?

And the team's pool is based on the aggregate of the individual slot amounts of the players you sign. So the cap is not fixed.

About 3/4 of the way down in this link, AA basically indicates that the Jays are offering slot to Stroman and De Jong if I read this correctly. Also, there's no chance they will risk losing a draft pick.

So much for paying Dejong like a first rounder. I'd love to know what Stroman is asking for. AA says he's been offered slot, which is pretty much what all the other first rounders have signed for so far.

But we have to keep open minds, which I believe you are doing. Also these strategies are complicated which fooled me.

Picking guaranteed low $ signing players to save $ for other players was a strategy that all Bauxites agreed was a good one, I think. The reason is that if you do not sign any 4-10 picks you lose the pick & the $ budgeted. However, I must ask you Beyonder are you disagreeing with this strategy and instead would take the best player available 4-10 rather than wait until round 11. You obviously would have a very much better selection.

I thought the saved $ would be used to top up any high upside picks from round 11-40. And also top up the high upside picks from round 1-3. But at $1mil over slot, Smoral has used up most of the savings. So he has to be a big success because he has affected our 2012 draft very significantly.

*** I wonder if the Smoral pick, shocked & befuddled AA ***
1) Shocked that he was available at #50.
2) At $1mil over slot AA can do the math. There is not much left over.

As far as talent in rounds 5-40. In 2009 we paid Hutch over & maybe KC Hobson. In 2010 Thon & Maybe Dyson. In 2011 M Lopes, M Biggs, M Dean, B Dragmire all maybe over pays. Were they considered high upside? Lets use the 2012 slot values as comparisons.

Sportnet.ca has an article on "Unsigned Draft Picks Vying For Blue Jay Dollars" (found on my iPhone app Toronto). Turns out I am right, oh you shameless doubters. Stroman has next to no leverage, and his options suck.

Stroman knows what Seniors signed for in this and in future drafts. He's one year away from being a 5'9" Senior, and was passed by by 21 teams before Toronto took him. He will be under-slot by a lot, because we are his last chance.

The Blue Jays may very well play hardball with Stroman, telling him to take or leave the $1.8 million value assigned to the 22nd pick, while the Duke right-hander is quite likely seeking to reach the $2 million plateau.

In other words, it appears that the Blue Jays are offering slot and Stroman is seeking a bonus above-slot. If he signs for what the Blue Jays are apparently offering, his bonus will be a far cry from the "under-slot by a lot" prediction you made earlier. If you re-read this thread, you'll notice that it was the other posters here who were saying Stroman's bonus would be somewhere around slot.

The next two lines to your quote are : "The problem for him is that he has very little leverage (my point precisely) since returning to school in hopes of making more in next year's draft as a senior seems to be a remote possibility. Additionally, he'd have zero leverage as a senior in the draft and could be forced to accept a token bonus in order to start his pro career." Options that would give him more money that Toronto offers - do they even exist?

The rules have changed, draft thinking must change as well. This is all part of the 'new" Moneyball.

High School picks can go Junior College, Major College or University or something totally different. Basketball, Football or Work, anything can give High School Picks leverage.

Junior have only as much leverage as a GM will give them. Playing another sport is not available, but work and no school is - and maybe not playing. Or school as a Senior is available, for a degree. Juniors deserve value, but not as much as they think they do.

I would be offering Stroman, $1.25 MM as a possible low, to $1.749 MM as a possible high.

Shi Davidi thinks that, while he may not have as much leverage as he had a year ago under the old agreement, Stroman has enough leverage whereby the Jays may have to play hardball to get him to sign at slot. He never equates a slight decrease in a junior's amount of leverage to being forced to sign "underslot by a lot."

Davidi's conslusion is what nearly everyone but you has been saying this entire thread regarding Stroman.

In J Paxton Seattle has a very good prospect that is close to being ML ready. Did other teams know/suspect he would be so good? I am guessing yes. What is debatable is why he fell to the 4th round and how disappointed he was with his signing bonus.

I am reading that he signed in March 2011, this is after the signing deadline for June 2010 draftees as far as I know. So somehow he is allowed to sign late. Now does this mean he can refuse a take it or leave it offer from his drafting team (Seattle) and take his chances the next year, 2011 or something.
I guess this is playing hard ball, with Seattle & Paxton both gambling. This could be some kind of opportunity for teams to get talent, maybe cheap.

Paxton was not going to school at the time so he was allowed to sign later. He has also taken a major step back this year because of control problems at AA and he's also been on the DL for a month with a knee/leg injury I think. His prospect status is certainly worse than it was.

5th highest bonus isn't so much the issue as how did he do vs slot. Signed for $1.6 vs slot of $1.775. A bit under but not drastic ($175k). I suspect we'll see more quality senior players (top 100 prospects) drafted early in the future as they might sign under slot and gain a couple hundred grand to use to sign a high end high school prospect. Still, he did get a good deal. Any other senior signings (real signings, not the $5k kind)?

In rounds 11-40 picks get a uniform $100,000.00 as Slot. I don't see any reason to pay them less monies. Thus far, 3 High School Picks, 3 Junior College picks, 4 JUNIORS and 2 SENIORS accepted $100 K slot.

Ranking of prospects yet to sign appears to be Stroman (RHP), Kellogg (LHP), Heyman (OF), Borucki (LHP), Dupont (2B). Just add anything left from Stroman to the $100,000.00 slot figure and mention waiting 3 years to start their MLB career if they don't sign.

So we are up to 25 signed, including 13 of the first 14 picks. Nice. From the official site...NYY: 2 of top 3 unsigned, 3 of top 6. Boston: top 10 rounds all signed (12 players), along with rounds 12-14Tampa: 8 of top 10 picks signed, missing #1 pick and round 9. Rounds 12 & 14 are the only others missed in the first 28 rounds. 33 of 40 picks signedBaltimore: Signed round 3 & 6 but thats it among top 7 picks.

Baltimore really seems to be waiting until the last second here - of course they might have guys signed but haven't updated the web site. Boston has been amazing, signing all cap players. Tampa almost as amazing but missing your top pick is always a black mark (like it was for the Jays last year).

The Blue Jays have signed Franklin Barreto, a 16-year-old Venezuelan shortstop, who was the top rated international free agent by Baseball America. They also signed Luis Castro, who was the #9 rated international free agent by Baseball America. I haven't heard dollar figures in either case, although Barreto was rumoured to be looking at about $2 million.

Any Stroman signing needs to be done by the 10th, at the latest, because Toronto needs time to negotiate with Kellogg, Heyman, Borucki and Dupont with the crumbs. Option One, not signing Stroman: leaves approximately $241,269.00 to sign others. Option Two, signing Stroman: leaves approximately $331,251.00 over his slot to work with - isn't greed wonderful.

As international Free Agent signings are now controlled by the CBA, exact numbers are important, not a nebulous - about $2,000,000.00. Who would have the exact figues, we could access?

We gave up most of our slot savings to Smoral. Since he was drafted before found 4, AA must have known how to proceed with those rounds.

I do not know if this is breaking the rules or some kind of "bad faith" drafting. Stroman's slot was $1.8mil. If a fair signing bonus for him is +-$200,000 slot value, then a best offer of $1.2mil could be considered unfairly low. Would the league punish such an action. IMO the player may feel unfairly treated.

Smoral however fell to $1mil slot, so he could not complain if offered $1.2mil or so, but as a HS pick he certainly has the University option.

With still 5 days to go to the Signing Deadline, it will be interesting to see who's not willing to wait 3 more years to start their professional Baseball careers. After all, they might get better and still not get drafted much higher as rounds 4-10 are now Senior slot-saving signings.

Good point Richard - much different choices now vs past seasons. Do you sign for $100k or wait 2-4 years in the hope of being a round 1-3 player? I think scholarships are still an option for teams to offer in addition to a bonus and if you get that from a team plus $100k it'd be very hard to resist as you'd have your backup plan and a shot at your dream. Save the $100k as best you can so you have money for the next few years in case it blows up.

Funny - it might be easier to sign a guy who is drafted 11th+ round now than it was to sign a guy drafted in the 5th round before. Before their ego would say 'I can climb a round or two' but now they'd be going 'uh oh' with the 11th round. It'll be interesting in a decade to see how this years draft does.

As to how the 4th rounder made the majors already, remember that guy was signed when you could go nuts with bonus' on later rounds thus get someone to sign on the dotted line even if they were a first round talent level. Now Dyson would probably be drafted in the first 3 rounds if a team thought he'd sign cheap due to his injury, or he'd fall down to the 11th or later if they thought he wouldn't. Before this year the Jays seemed to draft lottery tickets in rounds 4/5 - guys who if they work out would be 'woohoo' but if not, ah well.

Outside of Josh Johnson and Kirk McCaskill I wouldn't rank the 4th round picks here as successes. Randy Johnson & Will Clark would've been massive ones but if they don't sign it doesn't matter much.

Casey Janssen is the only Jays 4th rounder to crack 2 for WAR with Xavier Hernandez joining him in the 1+ category. Just 8 have reached the majors (make that 9 now).

4th round on is purely lottery ticket range. You might get lucky with a 5th rounder like Dave Stieb, Pat Hentgen, Michael Young or Mike Timlin or the 7th rounder Casey Blake but that's it for 10+ WAR guys after the 3rd round for the Jays (who signed). I doubt we really care much about getting tons of sub-10 guys (such as Scott Brow) as the draft is where you have a shot at a star at low rates.

Giving up on the 4th to 10th rounds to help sign more 1-3 round makes tons of sense.

With 29 of 44 draft picks signed, and no indication (next to names) of the picks in the 11th - 40th rounds being over-slot signings (our guys are too good to miss this), A.A. has roughly 3 days remaining and $331,215.00 to sign more. Still 12 High School, 2 Juco and 1 Senior remains unsigned.

I figure the high schoolers are the big catches. Kellogg I read said he is now locked in to college (I think it was his twitter feed).

Grant Heyman has a web site to sell him to colleges here and JaysProspects.com has a nice interview where he sounds like he really wants to sign. However, this article suggests he has committed to college thus won't sign.

Will DuPont (16th) is mixed - he is leaning towards college he says but it doesn't sound like he'd be too expensive to buy out (vs Kellogg & Heyman at least).

Josh Almonte (22nd) sounds enthused about being drafted in this article but I can't find any indicators of how hard a sign he will end up being, or if he would at all.

There are others, but I figured I'd check a handful of the top non-signed. Obviously Kellogg is the biggest target due to being Canadian but we'll see what happens. Get those 11/12th picks signed though and that would be the cherry on top of the draft sundae I think.

Another sure sign of senility on its way. I must have spent 5 minutehypo daring why John Heyman would be trying to sell himself to colleges - wondering perhaps if he was going to take those long overdue writing and statistics courses.

You work hard until the 10th signing the top remaining picks, but 11th -13th, you sign who you can, as long as value remains. Toronto's had a great draft with those already signed. As long as value remains, keep signing picks. There is money remaining to work with.

DuPont via Callis - just amazing that the Jays now are up to 23 of their first 25 picks. I'm sure a few have outstanding offers of $100k (Kellogg, Heyman, maybe Almonte and a few others) but odds are few would go for it now. I'm betting a few had an open offer of the $426 Borucki signed for with a 'first to take it gets it, otherwise you can have $100k' statement.

Nice. 13 not signed, but 7 of those are 30th round or later. Just 2 were not high school students - just 1 a senior who could sign after the deadline (if a senior you can sign for the full year).

A bit surprised that as many hs players signed. College is a great opportunity and if you are a top 10-20corner round talent then I'd bet you would have a full ride possibility and that would be hard to resist.

Still, on the other hand the new limits and potential for those limits to be tightened is a strong incentive to take what you can.

My interpretation from what AA said. When Smoral fell to the Jays, he could not resist taking him.
He then used the unprotected Rounds 4-10 to build up slot savings to pay Smoral. He used over 50% of those savings.
If Smoral had not fallen, he would have taken the best players available in rounds 4,5 &6.
Rounds 7-10 would have been used for slot savings.
The HS picks in rounds 11-40 were the back up to everything IMO. All the unused money without losing a pick would go to them.

So how good is Kellogg & how much did he want? If picked 4, 5, 6, he would have to be signed or the player & $ are lost.