Jun 4, 2017

The Rise of Disposable Drones

The obvious system for a cost-conscious, disposably-oriented society? JL

Joe Pappalardo reports in Popular Mechanics:

"The main weakness of sUAS [small unmanned aircraft systems] is range." It's a lot easier, cheaper, and faster to redesign a drone
than an entire airplane. "The idea is to have a tech refresh fielded in
months instead of years." Weapons are getting smarter and drones are getting smaller, and pretty soon it will be hard to tell the difference.

It has advanced radar, forward-looking infrared cameras, and laser rangefinders—all used to help the 13-man crew direct a barrage of lethal fire to the ground from 12,000 feet. But for all of this advanced technology, the vision of the U.S. Air Force Special Operations Command gunships can be thwarted by the threatening adversary known as a cloudy sky.

The Air Force has a solution: Launch a small unmanned aircraft from the gunship to drop below the cloud cover and serve as the eyes of the AC-130's crew. Special Operations officials last year spoke publicly about using a drone called the Coyote—the wings of the Coyote unfold as the drone launches from a six-inch-wide tube. A higher-endurance version is in development.

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Weapons are getting smarter and drones are getting smaller, and pretty soon it will be hard to tell the difference. "The main weakness of sUAS [small unmanned aircraft systems] is range," says U.S. Air Force Brigadier General Alexus Grynkewich, deputy director for operations at the National Joint Operations and Intelligence Center and coauthor of a recently released Pentagon study called "Air Superiority 2030 Flight Plan." "You need some delivery method to get them close."Grynkewich sees the engineering challenge as a series of trade-offs. A heavier engine increases a drone's range, but the airplane that launches it isn't able to carry as many. The amount of sophistication on the sensor adds expense to the drone, which may be lost in battle. And the wingspan is limited by the hardware on the airplane. Despite these complexities, the Air Force sees smart but disposable aircraft as an important solution: Airpower is a game of threat and response. One side makes a powerful radar array, the other creates stealth warplanes that can fly undetected. By the time the new airplane is ready to meet the old threat, a new one has emerged. It's a lot easier, cheaper, and faster, however, to redesign a drone than an entire airplane. "The idea is to have a tech refresh fielded in months instead of years," says Reid Melville, strategy lead for unmanned systems at the Air Force Research Laboratory at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base. "That way, when we get surprised, we will have the infrastructure in place to make a rapid change."

Except when it comes to singing The Righteous Brothers songs in bars, this new generation of drones promises to be the perfect wingman. They make no mistakes and have no emotion. And if the situation demands it, they are willing sacrifices. There is one big difference, however: Like soldiers, drones will always deserve gratitude. Unlike soldiers, however, they'll never deserve a funeral.

The Arsenal

Seven of the most promising designs right now.

Miniature Air-Launched Decoy (MALD)

•MALD is a trailblazer. In the mid-1990s DARPA started researching this small jet-engine-powered craft, fired from a warplane's wing, that could fly along GPS waypoints and emit signals to mimic a full-size aircraft. Hidden air-defense systems shoot at MALD and expose themselves to counterattack. After a stutter-step start, the technology caught up with the idea and in 2009 Raytheon delivered the first MALD to the Air Force. Recent upgrades include a carbon-composite fuselage that lightens the airframe. An upcoming datalink ability will enable pilots to reprogram MALD's flight path after launch.

•Status: Currently deployed.Coyote

•Dropped from an airplane, these disposable drones are launched from a six-inch tube and unfold in flight. They are currently launched from National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration airplanes to study hurricanes. The Air Force special-ops folks have converted them for use on gunships, to aim at targets obscured by clouds.

•Status: Currently deployed.

Air-Launched, Tube-Integrated, Unmanned System (ALTIUS)

Drones such as the Coyote can stay airborne for only an hour. The USAF tactical off-board sensing program wants a drone that can provide continuous surveillance coverage for at least four. So they came up with ALTIUS. It has a state-of-the-art, high-energy-density power system that can withstand harsh environmental conditions, does not pose an explosive hazard, and can be stored for more than six months. It uses a highly efficient, lightweight carbon-composite airframe, and its slender shape is designed to fit in a six- to eight-inch launch tube.

•Status: In development. Anticipated deployment: ten years.

Agilepod

•The Air Force Research Lab wants to make a one-size-fits-all attachment that allows any aircraft to carry drones. Drone makers will be able to design around the pod's specs, opening the door to innovations from smaller companies. (A common launcher gives small drone makers the chance to bid on Pentagon contracts without having to learn how to make military-grade airplane parts.) The pods range in length from 28 to 60 inches. Those compartments can be assembled in different configurations—like Legos, but with interlocking radar, jamming emitters, and spy sensors.•Status: In development. Anticipated deployment: five to ten years.

Switchblade

The need for on- demand reconnaissance and pinpoint air strikes prompted the Army, soon followed by the Marines, to rapidly develop and field the Switchblade. A soldier carries the drone in a backpack, launches it within minutes to scout a target beyond his line of sight, and then drops it on the target like a precision missile. Ground troops fire the craft out of a tube, similar to a mortar, which could easily be mounted to an airplane—which is exactly what the Marines did during a test in 2015.

•Status: Ground units are already deployed. Aircraft units are in development and should be battle-ready within five years.

Gremlins

•This may come as a surprise, but the Pentagon isn't eager to throw money away. DARPA has a program to create systems that can recover flying drones with a moving airplane. Department of Defense officials and the companies involved in the program don't part with details easily, but there is one practical method an Air Force official shared with us. It involves deploying a boom, much like the equipment used to refuel aircraft in flight, that attaches to the front of a drone using infrared sensors. The mother-ship airplane then reels in the boom, along with the drone, and we all save a bunch of money.

•Status: In development. Anticipated deployment: ten to 15 years.

Perdix •

Pilots could use one drone to hunt and attack an enemy radar, but it would need to maneuver and carry countermeasures to survive long enough to complete the mission. Which would be expensive. Instead the idea is to send a bunch of less costly UAVs that can work together, knowing that some will be lost en route. Such a swarm is only as good as its components' ability to talk securely to each other, however. One hacker or jamming system could sabotage an entire mission.

•Status: In development. In late 2016, the Navy and MIT Lincoln Laboratory deployed a swarm of 103 Perdix drones at China Lake, California. During the test, the aircraft changed flight formations and positions in response to one another. Anticipated deployment: five years.

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As a Partner and Co-Founder of Predictiv and PredictivAsia, Jon specializes in management performance and organizational effectiveness for both domestic and international clients. He is an editor and author whose works include Invisible Advantage: How Intangilbles are Driving Business Performance.Learn more...