Dem cavalry may be too late in Wis.

MILWAUKEE — Democrats have taken issue with the sampling, the timing and the precision of the surveys, but there’s one fact they can’t get around: There has not been a single poll showing Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker trailing in his recall election since February.

If Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett is able to pull off a come-from-behind victory Tuesday, it would rejuvenate Democrats and breathe new life into the deflated labor movement.

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But if, as expected, Walker prevails, Republicans will view it as the second-biggest electoral prize of the cycle, after the presidency.

No matter what the outcome in Wisconsin, half of POLITICO’s most competitive governors’ contests in the country begin the summer as genuine tossups, with open seats in Montana and New Hampshire moving up the ladder.

The cavalry finally arrived for Democrat Tom Barrett, but it might be too late. In the past week, Democratic National Committee Chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz, Democratic Governors Association Chairman Martin O’Malley and former President Bill Clinton have all stumped for the underdog, trying to dislodge the third sitting governor in history through a recall effort.

According to Democratic polling, Barrett has been inching closer by the day and even Walker said Saturday he expects a close outcome. But news of the creation of 23,000 new jobs in 2011 — confirmed by the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics — couldn’t have been timed better for the embattled Walker, who has kept up a ruthless assault on the air of Barrett’s mayoral record. For an election that was sparked over collective bargaining, the closing arguments have centered around integrity, trust and vague aspersions about what the other candidate might be hiding.

Democratic state Attorney General Steve Bullock continues to collect more cash than anyone in the race, essentially doubling up front-running Republican Rick Hill in April.

With Hill still waging a primary, Bullock has been free to pile up a $375,000 cash-on-hand advantage. With a pickup opportunity at hand, the deep-pocked Republican Governors Association will be there to assist Hill, but the former congressman first must make sure he locks down the June 5 primary.

Former state Sen. Corey Stapleton is making the most aggressive run at Hill, attacking him on the air for his “political baggage” and deeming him “unelectable.” But according to Public Policy Polling, it’s “undecided” who leads the seven-man GOP field ahead of Tuesday’s vote, 35 percent to Hill’s 33 percent. That’s a tenuous spot for the favorite to be.

A pair of polls showed Republican Rob McKenna still clutching to a lead of 2 percentage points to 4 percentage points over former Rep. Jay Inslee. The state attorney general is bolstering the polling edge with swift fundraising — amassing more money in 19 days in April than Inslee brought in for the month.