So far this year, Elon Musk’s maverick electric-car company has blown past analysts’ earnings forecasts. It’s also been knocking down production and profit targets with clock-like regularity.

This sets the bar pretty high. According to the Wall Street Journal\’s Money Beat, options traders are already betting on a big swing to the upside.

But it also raises the possibility of a nasty backfire if it misses.

Here are the numbers.

According to FactSet’s poll of analysts, Tesla is expected to earn 8 cents a share in the quarter ended Sept. 30, reversing a year-ago loss of 92 cents a share. The EPS estimate excludes one-time charges, and there will be some big ones this quarter. Among likely items are spending on building out its electric recharging system. It’s also been spending heavily in Europe. And then there\’s the Model X, its SUV crossover, which is supposed to roll out before the end of the year. When all of these one-time capital expenditures are added up, Tesla’s net for the quarter could well be a loss.

Revenue for the quarter is expected to come in at $547.5 million, up from $50.1 million a year ago and $551 million in the previous quarter. For the full year, analysts expect Tesla to rack up $2.24 billion in revenue.

As for targets, Musk said earlier he expects to finish the year with gross profit margin of 25%. So far, it looks like he’ll make it. Gross margin hit 5% in the first quarter and rose to 13% in the second. Musk said he expects it to hit 19% in the third, and the analysts seem comfortable with that. These numbers exclude zero emission vehicle (ZEV) credits, which some critics call a crutch. The company has subsequently been weaning itself from its reliance on ZEV credits.

Production has been steadily ramping up. It looks likely to hit its target of 21,000 vehicle deliveries this year. Third-quarter deliveries are expected to be about 5,580 vehicles. Musk’s next goal: deliver 41,000 cars in 2014. Depending on how the third-quarter went, that number could be revised higher.

Given Tesla’s track record so far this year, it is flushing out the skeptics. Short calls on Tesla stock have dropped 36% since March to about 20.8 million shares, or 17% of shares outstanding.

Meanwhile, Tesla’s share price has soared more than 400% since the start of the year. Which means investor infatuation, despite a few understandable bouts of profit-taking, clearly has not withered. And today it\’s looking for confirmation.

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