Sever Plocker

Five million in five years

Five million more Palestinians are expected to populate the Gaza Strip and the West Bank within the next five years

Palestinian population will grow as emigrants return and new children are born Photo: AP

Rand Corporation is a California research institute that has built its reputation as a conservative, strict, yet reliable and credible think tank.

Last week, the institution published a complete study on the options of establishing and founding a Palestinian state.

According to the report, the cost of a durable Palestinian state that sustains reasonable living standards is more than USD 70 billion, to be spent over the course of the next 15 years.

The sources of the 15-year budget, according to the report, must be the U.S., but also the European Union and oil-rich countries.

Additional conditions specified in the report include the creation of a territorial chain in the West Bank Rand calls "The Arc" and a land connection with the Gaza Strip, the establishment of a central government able to disarm the various terror groups, law enforcement and the creation of crossable borders between Israel and Palestine to guarantee the free flow of goods, people and services.

Linking West Bank and Gaza Strip - 'The Arc'

The studys authors, who labored over the report for nearly two years, recommended implementing the plans of Palestinian development along the arc, a title they gave the geographical line that runs through West Bank mountaintops and connects Palestinian population centers throughout the West Bank and Gaza Strip.

Rands proposal entails converting this arc into the artery throughout which all communication, transportation, water and energy transactions - even recreation - would pass.

The arc, therefore, would be the Palestinian states lifeline.

A thorough review of the report may bring about disturbing thoughts in Israeli minds.

The best case scenario, if and when all conditions are fulfilled: aid arrives, terror organizations are extinguished, an internal security system is established (estimated cost is USD 600 million a year), and a new regime is founded properly investing in education, health, welfare and infrastructure.

All this groundwork would cause the standard of living in 2009 Palestine to resemble the 1999 standard of living in the Palestinian Authority.

This is the tangible economic expression of the curse that has been cast over the Palestinian people on their way to self-definition: rapid population growth.

This population growth may become an asset in the demographic struggle against Israel, but at the same time could pose an intolerable burden on the attempt to establish a successful Palestinian state.

'Not a likely scenario - occupation'

In the long run, the demographic sections of the research demonstrate an expected decrease in the growth rate of the Palestinian population, going down from 4 percent to 2.2%; but this would only happen in about a quarter of a century.

In the meantime, there is no way in which Israel can rule over 5 million people, determine their fates, occupy their borders and deny them civil rights - regardless of the number of Jews predicted to populate Israel by the end of the decade.

Accordingly, occupation is not a likely scenario.

Therefore, the only optional scenario is a withdrawal to the borders accepted by both Palestinians and the world.

The lesson one can conclude from the study by this generally pro-Israel institute is that the sooner we leave the territories and allow the Palestinians to found their own state, the sooner our condition would improve.

There is no use in insisting on the existence of settlements: they are mere drops in the demographic oceans that would not change the population balance beyond the Green Line.

Rand researchers are convinced Palestinians must enforce development and construction efforts, and will discover the need to slow population growth, limit immigration and focus on raising their living standards.

However, until this occurs, remember the prediction: Five million Palestinians within five years. Time is working against us.

Why do Gaza and the West Bank have to be connected by land? Does not being connected to the Lower 48 hurt Alaska and Hawaii? Is Greenland less Danish because it's separated from Denmark? I don't get it.

I also see no sign Palestinian terrorism will end any time soon. Who will dismantle the terrorist groups? Certainly not Abbas.

P.S.: No, I don't post on Shabbat. I'm in California on business this week. Shabbat shalom to all.

"According to the report, the cost of a durable Palestinian state that sustains reasonable living standards is more than USD 70 billion, to be spent over the course of the next 15 years. The sources of the 15-year budget, according to the report, must be the U.S."

$70 billion, courtesy of the U.S. taxpayer. ....of course.

I prefer the mass transfer option. .....spread out over the entire Arab world. ....for a fraction of the cost.

WHAT??!! Maintain reasonable living standards? What the hell does that mean? We don't maintain the living standards of people in Africa or India or S America. What makes the Palestinians special that they should be entitled to the bulk of International Aid and be guaranteed cars and houses while other Third World people can't get vaccinations or food. Damn, a lot of Americans don't have those things! What the hell am I missing? Would Bush really pledge over another pile of$$$$$$? Tell me no!

I agree with you. I didn't post this article because I agreed at all with the Rand Corporation report. I posted it because such a trusted, normally conservative American organization put out such nonsense. I posted it for the same reasons I posted articles about Bush administration policies towards Israel and the Arabs that I think are wrong: to make sure more American conservatives are aware and voicing their opinions.

I picked on their concept of "the Arc" but I also disagree with their population numbers and the idea that American taxpayers should fund the P.A. or a future Palestinian state. I also don't believe that the terrorist infrastructure will disappear or be dismantled any time soon. Quite the contrary: if there ever is a state called Palestine one terrorist group or another will run it. I see Hamas as most likely with Fatah as next most likely.

14
posted on 05/15/2005 11:48:30 AM PDT
by anotherview
("Ignorance is the choice not to know" -Klaus Schulze)

The U.S. taxpayer hasn't been ripped off to this extent to support the Palestinians and their terrorist regime... yet. The point of posting an article like this is to make sure people know what the Rand Corporation is thinking and to make sure that enough American conservatives raise their voices and say "hell no, not with my dollars!" to their representatives in Congress and to the President.

15
posted on 05/15/2005 11:50:21 AM PDT
by anotherview
("Ignorance is the choice not to know" -Klaus Schulze)

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