Blair still needs Tory support, says survey

Ministers have persuaded, flattered and squeezed backbenchers into submission but the government is still struggling to push the education bill through the Commons without relying on Conservative support, a Guardian survey shows.

The Labour rebellion over plans to introduce self-governing trust schools will not be as large as first feared, with some irreconcilables being turned into "don't knows" and undecideds into support.

When Estelle Morris, the former education secretary, decided to support the bill last week many opponents reconsidered. Others are being dealt with in different ways: at least two Labour MPs will be abroad when the second reading vote takes place on Wednesday.

But the rival camps agree that at least 45 to 50 Labour MPs are ready to vote against, and more to abstain. The prime minister's working majority is 69, so the rebels need 35 votes against to force a reliance on the Conservatives. One rebel campaigner said this would leave Tony Blair running a "minority administration".

The Guardian put in calls to 100 potential Labour rebels, 95 of whom had signed up to an "alternative white paper" from the left-leaning Compass group. Sixty-three responded. Eleven said they would vote with the government; 22 against; 20 have yet to decide; one will abstain; three will be absent; and six would not say.

Ruth Kelly, the education secretary, will address a meeting of the parliamentary Labour party today to appeal to rebels. She has earned credit from the backbenchers for being prepared to talk the plans over; and, if necessary, over and over again.

"She has listened very carefully and she's done enough for my support," said Michael Foster, MP for Hastings and Rye. Michael Connarty, MP for Linlithgow and East Fife, said: "I think Ruth Kelly has done a wonderful job with a very, very bad idea, but it's still a bad idea."

The Kelly camp accepts that the presentation of the white paper gave too much emphasis to trust schools at first, which will be a voluntary scheme with no financial incentive. She has since emphasised changes on transport, school meals and discipline. But some Labour MPs who will support the bill on second reading are planning amendments - for instance on a complete ban on selection - which the government will not want.

David Chaytor, MP for Bury North, said: "The government has shifted ground since the white paper, made certain improvements, and I think now the focus should be on winning the argument for even more improvements."

The government's problem is that if it gives too much away the Conservatives may switch their position for the third reading. David Willetts, the shadow education secretary, told the Guardian: "Our test is simple. Does the bill overall increase the freedom of schools? We believe that although it is now a very timid bill, it does on balance increase school freedom. But Tony Blair musn't make concessions to his rebels that end up neutralising any benefits from the bill."

A BBC survey of 97 MPs released yesterday found 45 supporting the government, 28 against and 24 undecided.

Voting with the government

Graham Allen (Nottingham North)

"I am very pleased that our democracy is working as it should, which is that government proposes and parliament dissects, and we enter into a dialogue. The ministers have interacted with those of us who expressed reservations and I have had plenty of airtime with ministers."

Patrick Hall (Bedford)

"There's been sufficient movement since the publication of the white paper for me to feel that the right thing to do is support the bill in principle, give it a second reading and seek to improve it further in committee."

Gwyn Prosser (Dover)

"I am supporting it on second reading. But I am deeply concerned that in the past few weeks, government, the secretary of state, even the prime minister, keep saying, 'Watch my lips, there will be no new selection', and that begs the question, why no selection per se?"

Against

Frank Dobson (Holborn and St Pancras)

"It's just wrong, it's not capable of being amended to make it any better."

Gwyneth Dunwoody (Crewe and Nantwich)

"I'm wholly against the concept of trust schools, with anybody with enough money able to get their hands on a school."

Ken Purchase (Wolverhampton North East)

"I don't believe it's necessary, it's not welcomed by education practitioners, the direction travelled is wrong, and the government should think again."

Undecided

David Anderson (Blaydon)

"I genuinely haven't made my mind up yet."

Martin Caton (Gower)

"I'm working my way through the bill at the moment. I'm really torn on whether it's enough."