A Democratic Lead in NY-20?

According to a poll released today by Siena College, Democrat Scott Murphy has taken the lead for the first time over Republican Jim Tedisco in the March 31 special election to fill Sen. Kirsten Giliibrand's old House seat, 47% to 37%.

Tedisco has led for the entire race up until this point, and Gillibrand's appointment had seemed to give Republicans a chance to take back one of the seats Democrats picked up in the 2006 wave that gave them the majority: Gillibrand was a Blue Dog, the upstate 20th district is conservative as Democratic districts go, and polls showed Tedisco with a healthy lead (Siena had him up 46% to 34% in late February). Politically, the race has pitted AIG outrage against the pro-stimulus arguments of the Democratic Party, and it has offered both parties a chance to test the waters of a swing district at the outset of the 2010 cycle.

It should be noted that Tedisco disputes the results of today's poll, which includes responses from 917 likely voters via telephone, conducted March 25-26, with a margin of error of +/- 3.2%.