Local newspapers,
international news magazines, and the internet have been
replete with articles about the probable outbreak of an
avian flu pandemic. All paint a grim picture of between
7.4 million and 150 million deaths within a period of
five and a half months. It is not a blown-up figure they
project, as they cite the pandemic of 1918 which claimed
100 million lives in that span of time.

Some scientists say
it is not a matter of if, but when the disease will sweep
all over the world. For this reason, the World Health
Organization has sent out warnings to all nations and
advised them to develop preparedness plans. Travel ban,
quarantine, closure of public places, cancellation of
mass gatherings, and declaration of state of emergency
are among the measures the Philippine government is ready
to adopt when migratory birds bring the virus to our
land.

That is
preparedness at the national level. But are the gated
communities where most of the readers of this newspaper
reside prepared to cope with the grim situation? I asked
a friend, a public health practitioner, who is now posted
at the Kobe office of WHO, if the organization has
pro-forma plans which communities can adopt to deal with
the daunting situation. It has none.

Public health officials have
created the chilling scenario of hospitals and other
health facilities being overwhelmed by the number of
patients seeking treatment and other health services;
health professionals being reduced in number because
they, after being exposed to the virus, are themselves
down with the sickness; anti-viral agents and antibiotics
being exhausted; basic services like power, water,
transportation, and communication severely strained by
absenteeism; drugstores, grocery stores, restaurants, and
public markets closed and padlocked to prevent looting by
a desperate population.

Most people would have to
fend for themselves. If a member of the family got
infected, he will have to be taken care of and treated by
the others at home. Should families now stock up on
anti-viral agents and medicines, and foodstuff like rice,
canned goods, drinking water, and even face masks and
rubber gloves? Who would determine when and what dosage
of medicine should be given the sick person, or who would
administer intravenous antibiotics since health
practitioners may be fully occupied at health centers or
are themselves incapacitated by the
flu?

The household help,
who ordinarily take the brunt of the burden of helping in
the care of the sick at home, like fetching drinking
water, washing stained linen, and cleaning the dirtied
floor, may not be of much help as they might also be down
with the flu. The stay-out family driver may not report
for work as he may also be afflicted or has to take care
of a sick member of his own family. Given their normal
living conditions of congested community and poor
sanitary conditions, they would be more vulnerable in the
event of an epidemic. If a maid gets afflicted, she would
have to be isolated so as not to infect others who, in
most instances, sleep in the same cramped quarters. Where
will she be placed? If she had infected other household
help, who would take care of them? You, their
amos?

If the subdivision draws
water by pumping it out of its own deep wells, what
happens when electric power is reduced or completely cut
off due to the absence of operators at power stations?
The outsourced security force might also be reduced
markedly in size by the epidemic. Like the family driver,
security guards would be more vulnerable to the flu due
to their living conditions. Garbage collection will
completely cease as collectors, in all probability, would
be incapacitated.

If we go by the
mortality rates, it is inevitable that there would be
deaths among the afflicted cared for at home. With
traditional funeral services not available due to the
unavailability of a funeral crew, what does the family
do?

As public health
organizations or institutions have no suggestions as to
how communities can deal with the frightening situation,
it is time for community leaders to come up with their
own preparedness plan. They should exchange ideas with
leaders of other communities.

Some ideas are the
conversion of the subdivision clubhouse into the nerve
center of contingency activities, formation of security
details with the young male residents of the village
under the supervision of former military officers (in our
subdivision, there must be 10 generals, among them heroes
of EDSA 1), acquisition of an incinerator for burning
garbage, and conversion of a school in the subdivision
into a temporary infirmary to be supervised by physicians
and other health professionals residing in the village,
with able domestic helpers taking turns going on
duty.

Other contingency
measures would be the pooling of generators of homeowners
to power water pumps, the formation of a provision
committee composed of the ladies of the community who
will procure the basic needs, supervise their storage,
and manage the distribution or even create a temporary
commissary for more efficient use of cooking fuel, their
daughters helping out, and the formation of a brigade of
young boys who will gather firewood.

These may all seem
laughable at this point. A year before Hurricane Katrina
hit New Orleans, a scenario of deluge, destruction, and
death was drawn and presented to city officials and
community leaders. In typical American braggadocio, they
shrugged it off and said, "We will know what to do if and
when it does happen." No hurricane in the long history of
the city has ever wreaked damage that was anywhere near
the scenario. When Katrina unleashed its fury on the
city, creating a situation that was strikingly similar to
the picture painted a year before, the people were caught
not knowing what to do. Many policemen, overwhelmed by
the disorder and destruction, turned in their badges and
went home. Some even joined in the looting out of
desperation.

When the avian flu sweeps
over the land, its impact would be much more tremendous
than that of the tsunami that hit parts of Indonesia,
Thailand, and Sri Lanka, than that of Katrina that blew
away the age-old city of New Orleans, than that of the
earthquake that destroyed parts of Pakistan. Unlike the
victims of the tsunami, hurricane, and the earthquake, we
won't get help from any country as the desolation will be
global.