A bad time to invest in Bitcoin

Now if someone had asked her to accept payment in Bitcoin, or send payment in Bitcoin, then this would be compelling evidence that one should invest in Bitcoin.

But when cleaning ladies are asked to invest in Bitcoin, not a good investment.

When Bitcoin began, everyone was a miner, and everyone was a peer, everyone stored the entire blockchain. Which was great, but did not scale. And now people are struggling with half assed ideas about how to get it to scale. Bitcoin can no longer deliver on its original promises, has not figured out what new promises to make, and many of the new promises are unworkable, or are scams, or are likely to turn into scams.

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Spring 2012 I saw advertisements in the Vienna subway to invest in gold. I immediately sold all mine. Well, I was a bit too quick: the peak was summer 2012. But otherwise, good call.

Once it becomes a general knowledge parrotted by all that “housing prices can go nowhere but up” or “bitcoin is the wave of the future” or “gold can only go up because we never stopped printing more fiat money” at least a heavy downcorrection is coming.

If there is one investment strategy that never fails: once the clueless are getting in or the cunning are trying to get the clueless in (the last big pump before the dump), you are out.

Another way to put it is that just because something is true it does not mean investment related to that something cannot crash, hard. Yes, crypto is the future, yes we live in expanding money supply times and gold is a good hedge, yes, if they cannot find a way to heavily cut immigration there will be housing shortages and house prices going up. It does not mean in the meantime they cannot crash, hard.