by Adam Taggart

For those who enjoyed his encyclopedic 2015: Year In Review, this week we spend an hour with David Collum to ask: After processing through all of that information, what do you think the future is most likely to bring?

Perhaps it comes as little surprise that he sees the global economy headed back down into recession, one that will be deeper and more damaging than the 2008 crisis:

In 2008/9, while the equity markets when down, the bond markets went up. And that buffered an awful lot of pensions and 401Ks and endowments and things like that. And so people felt pain, but they didn’t realize that there was an offsetting gain. They did not notice that part as much, but I think the next downturn is going to be concurrent bond market collapse and equity collapse and there will be no slack in that downturn.

I think stocks and bonds are both at ridiculously high levels now. The bond market can only go down from here, right? I mean, it can keep going up for a while, but there is just nothing left to be squeezed out of it. Interest rates are at seven hundred-year lows, supposedly – they’re certainly at stupid lows, right. You have a third of Europe at negative rates… And so I think at some point the bond market’s got to collapse. It will start in the high yield market, and that is happening right now. Then it’ll spread, maybe treasuries will get bid to the stratosphere, but at some point you’ve got to get a real return. And so bonds have to sell off to get back to that real return — after all, all crises are credit crises, right,? And then equities are going to go once there’s not leverage out there for share buy backs and stuff like that.

That's why I think the next recession is going to be a barn-burner.

Click the play button below to listen to Chris' interview with David Collum (74m:53s)

Transcript

Chris Martenson: Welcome to this Peak Prosperity podcast, I am your host, Chris Martenson. Well, if you want to know where you are headed, you have to know where you are, which means you have to know where you have been. And to that end, continuing with our annual tradition, we’ve got the best year-end review in the business today, thanks to today’s guest, Dave Collum. For those of you unfamiliar with Dave, he is a professor of chemistry and chemical biology at Cornell University, my alma mater for my MBA. And in addition to his academic interests, David authors an annual macroeconomic assessment titled: "The Year in Review." It is hands down the best synopsis of anything that mattered during the previous twelve months.

His latest "Year in Review" can once again be found in full, in all its glory, at peakprosperity.com. I am excited to have him with us now live in order to expand on his excellent insights. Dave, thanks for coming back and being with us again this year.

Dave Collum: You know, I love coming back. I like these podcasts we do, and just for you and I to chat for an hour is for me a treat. We are somewhat like-minded. A lot of confirmation bias, but once in a while that kind of helps you out, doesn’t it?

Chris Martenson: I love a big heaping of confirmation bias, so let’s get right in there. How can you not have confirmation bias today though, because you’ve got these broken markets, these wild things that all the central banks are trying, and now, if you look carefully, you know what I’m seeing? Dave, I am seeing lots and lots of big banks starting to come out with their own little tentative, "Hey, this might turn out badly," assessments—a little CYA report writing from some of the bigger investment houses. You’ve got the big giants, many of whom you collected quotes from, Paul Singer et al, saying "hey, this whole thing looks a little goofy." If you were going to give this... your "Year in Review" this year, if it had to have a title, what would it be this year, do you think?

Dave Collum: Well, it actually did have to have a title. In the intro, I actually tell a little anecdote where I sent an e-mail off to a friend of mine who your readers would all know quite well. In April, I said that I’m losing track of the theme this year. And he said, "well, this year is still young dude." But there really was a deeper angst in what I was saying, and as the year went on, it didn’t go away. I became sort of less convinced that I understood what was happening. I have never been fully convinced I knew what was going on, but for example, last year I talked about Ukraine and the Saudis and the oil crunch, and stuff like that. I thought I had a pretty good narrative on it. And this year, I have probably twenty-five pages of notes on the middle east, and I’ve pretty much punted the ball because I just couldn’t figure it out. And of course, that’s so central to where we’re heading in terms of global terrorism. So the title as you know was "Scenic Vistas from Mount Stupid." Mount Stupid is a pinnacle on a curve that says willingness to talk versus your knowledge maxes out early.

And I realized I just was losing my cred. I was losing my sense of where we are. So that’s been the theme for me this year, is disorientation.

Chris Martenson: Yeah, I was thinking of that as the subtitle, "Scenic Vistas from Mount Stupid." I don’t know, I would have put something like FUBAR up top, or I don’t know what. This has been the craziest year ever, but I said that last year. So I’ve been saying this, Dave, increasingly for six years now, because the distortions, the deformations, the dislocations, the three big Ds, that the Fed has basically... the small politburo of appointed individuals has taken it upon themselves to know what the best price is for everything by mispricing money itself. And they got a lot of help. The Bank of Japan is in the mix, the Bank of England’s in the mix, the ECB is in the mix. Everybody is doing this, there is nowhere to go, nowhere to hide, and that creates a very chaotic landscape. But how do you even analyze something like this anymore?

Dave Collum: I don’t know. And then you’ve got the war on cash, you’ve got all sorts of things going on, and they’re trying to shut us out of our sort of normal defense strategy. We talked about confirmation bias, and I put a little piece in there that said I rely on confirmation bias. I embrace it. I’m well aware that it says be careful, you might be confirming something that’s wrong, but what’s also true is when you’re feeling kind of crazy about what you’re doing, you’ve got to find some likeminded people to keep your hand on the rudder steady and to not lose sight. And so, yeah, I’ve been working on an exit strategy, an exit from the situation we’re in in terms of viewing the world ever so darkly. This is by no means time to exit, in my opinion. I think we are actually topping out in the world of absurdity. But at some point we will be in a position where there will be bargains to be purchased.

They eluded us in ’09 for the most part because it never got cheap, but someday there will be and I’ve been trying to plan for that day when I’ll be able to go back to normal investing when no one else agrees with me.

Chris Martenson: Normal investing meaning what to you? You have something where you can identify value and the price is okay? And the prospects, the story makes sense, so there’s some comprehensive story besides somebody’s going to buy this from me for more money tomorrow?

Dave Collum: Well, that last sentence I don’t like. I would rather buy a well-defined revenue stream, and if someone does not want to pay me for it, that is fine, as long as it is a well-defined revenue stream. But there are none of those that I like right now. I was pretty enthusiastic about energy, I knew that the credit markets were a risk for the energy market. I must confess that I did not fully understand that risk. I am still enthusiastic about energy, and the XLE is still up threefold with the S&P is from 2000. But, I’ve had to move the goal post back a little bit in terms of my timeline for energy, but I always want to own energy. I always want to own it, I think we need it; we will use it. but my exit strategy ultimately is going to be, hopefully, to be able to do sort of a sixty-forty kind of portfolio when bonds return, will return, and stocks can be purchased cheap and pay good dividends and the companies have a growth going forward.

Chris Martenson: Well we certainly agree on energy, no question about that. You and I both have some grounding in biology and chemistry as well, so obviously, you know all of life is just a flow of electrons and from one state to another, energy is everything. And so, as I look into this energy space, I loved what you wrote about it because it confirmed for me what I thought, which is that I really think that the initial hit to the price of oil was a political stunt first and foremost, mainly directed at Saudi Arabia and Iran. And I think it kind of got away from them once that ball got rolling. And/or, our political leaders are just so tone deaf that they don’t really care, or are unaware of the amount of damage that’s being currently inflicted upon the U.S. oil industry. But at any rate, I’d love to talk to you about that because here’s when I love to buy things like oil, is it is way below its marginal cost of extraction for a barrel. You cannot possibly get it out of the ground for thirty-eight dollars, or thirty-five. Where are we at today, thirty-four... yes, so thirty-four, forget about it, not happening. You can get existing oil that you already have a drilled well. Of course, you might lose capital because you drilled at a higher set of expectations than you are currently selling it at; that is a different story, but it can come out of the ground, obviously, it does. Surprise to me has been how slowly the shale industry has responded to this. They are still drilling pretty steeply as well, but I know that oil has to go back up to seventy, eighty, ninety dollars a barrel, or we have to admit we’re going to live without oil. That ain’t gonna happen.

Dave Collum: Well, I... so I have some... my wish list, and I intend to buy energy equities again; I don’t buy oil futures or anything like that. That is too rich for me. The one thing I do, and I think your readers ought to consider seriously, at least the ones who are amateurs like me, is that I try to invest in a way where if it goes badly, I forgive myself. So if I bought futures in the oil and started playing around in those markets, and I got busted by it, I would not forgive myself because I don’t understand that world very well. So, I will be looking for energy equities. I don’t think they’ve bottomed yet. I think they’re only slowly responding to the price of energy, and so I’m still waiting, but I’m getting restless leg syndrome a little bit, as I said, and I’m thinking about it.

I want to invest in Russia too at some point, but I am waiting for them to get their tail ends kicked a bit. Maybe I will be waiting forever, I don’t know.

Dave Collum: Well, you know if our markets crash theirs are not going to hold up, right? And in fact, the horrifying detail going forward, I think, is in 2008/9, while the equity markets when down, the bond markets went up. And that buffered an awful lot of pensions and 401Ks and endowments and things like that. And so people felt pain, but they didn’t realize that there was an offsetting gain. They did not notice that part as much, but I think the next downturn is going to be concurrent bond market collapse and equity collapse and there will be no slack in that downturn.

Chris Martenson: Explain why you think both turn down at the same time.

Dave Collum: I think they are both at ridiculously high levels now. I mean, the bond market can only go down, right? I mean, it can keep going up for a while, but there is just nothing left to be squeezed out of it. Interest rates are at seven hundred year lows, supposedly. I don’t know how they get those numbers, but they’re claiming... they’re certainly at stupid lows. You have a third of Europe at negative rates, so I don’t see where... and I put in a quote, there were some guys saying "you know, if you buy bonds at negative rates there’s a chance you’ll lose money." I am going, "Really? Ya think?"

So I think at some point the bond market’s got to collapse. It will start in the high-yield market, and that is happening right now. Then it will spread. Maybe treasuries will get bid to the stratosphere, but at some point you’ve got to get a real return. And so the bonds have to sell off to get back to that real return, so they’ve got to go; and all crises are credit crises, right? And then equities are going to go once there’s not leverage out there for share buy backs and stuff like that.

Chris Martenson: Well think about... you know my model for this is, remember... I am drawing a blank on the year, but Bernanke was still in charge and it was the so-called "Taper Tantrum." I remember the month, not the year, it was June, and everything sold off. Everything just got clubbed at once, everything. That is sort of my model; remember that was like two or three days of awkwardness? Bonds were down, commodities were down, and stocks were down. Everything was just getting sold all at once.

Dave Collum: It wasn’t too many years ago. You know, there is the fear of twenty-five basis points, and to me, it is... at first, I thought it was just an abstract fear in which people say "Yes, but that’s just the tip of the iceberg, and you know what icebergs do, right?" But Zero Hedge did an interesting analysis and said look, you raise twenty-five basis points, you are going to see the equivalent of a quantitative typing of eight hundred billion dollars. I can’t say I follow the line completely, but I thought it was a credible storyline. So if they start raising rates and they start unwinding these incredibly leveraged positions, there is a problem, right?

Chris Martenson: Well, there is, of course the Fed has a few other tools besides just taking liquidity out. They can raise the rate of interest they are paying on the excess reserves and that would serve as sort of a magnetic attractor to a higher rate without withdrawing any liquidity. In fact, it is actually liquidity additive because you are paying banks more for the privilege of giving them free money that they round trip back into an account that you pay interest on. So they could do that.

There is a variety of things they could do because we know the Fed is deathly afraid of this market going down, and they know they do not want to withdraw a lot of liquidity. So, I think they’ve been doing what they can, and they got, apparently, the rate hike they wanted, only withdrawing, I think, about a hundred and thirty billion so far that I’ve seen. So they got away with doing it with a lot less than that Zero Hedge estimate that came through some firm. I can’t remember who.

Looking at that, here’s the theme I see. I see all the central banks as just being really afraid of the markets they’ve created. I don’t really remember you writing about the psychology of what’s going on in the politburo, or the FOMC, or inside the halls of those power bases. But it seems to me, from everybody I’ve talked to, that the Fed is actually pretty clueless. They don’t really have a good plan. They did not really mean to end up here. They don’t really know how to get out of here. But as you wrote in your article, you summed it up, you said that the dominant narrative, the theme this time that everybody’s running with—like we had railroads as a theme once that supported a set of bubbles. We had Internet, at least that was a credible story you could hang a hat on and say "yeah, I get how the internet’s going to change everything, let’s just go crazy on a bubble." But this bubble is a bubble of faith in a bunch of people who are appointed committee members, just a small handful of them, and that seems a little dangerous.

Dave Collum: Yeah, I am not sure if they’re afraid or if they’re clueless. You used both, and so you kind of hedged your bets there.

Chris Martenson: Yeah. [Laughter]

Dave Collum: I think it is probably a combination. I know Bernanke was afraid of 1938. I actually... I sort of had an epiphany on 1938. Everyone seems to accept the notion that in ’38 the Fed tapped the brakes at the wrong time. After a discussion I had with Mark Spitznagel, which was quite a treat, he mentioned the Tobin’s Q, and I started thinking about it some more, that’s a valuation model that’s really sort of a price-to-book valuation model, and he wildly endorses it as the cleanest of all the valuation models. And I went back and looked at it that night and was staring at it, and I noticed that in 1938 according to Tobin’s Q, the Fed had blown another bubble. And I had never noticed that before, so the Fed, the Tobin’s Q had reached all time highs again, and so the Fed had to tap the brakes in ’38 because they had over juiced the markets.

Chris Martenson: So price to book, is this... how clean is the book? You know we’ve got all kinds of shenanigans going on in accounting these days, so is there a cleaned up Tobin’s Q, or are we still... has that slowly been drifting off into nebulous uselessness like a lot of statistics?

Dave Collum: Well, let’s assume it’s clean. It is at near record highs, with the exception of 2000, but it is above twenty-nine, it is above sixty-seven, it is above the obvious high points. If it’s not clean, then it is worse. So, I don’t need to know... this is like the inflation debate. I no longer need to know how wrong it is at this point, because I’m just... I am not touching it. I talked to some guys who said, "Be careful of Tobin’s Q," and I go, well, I’ll start worrying about the validity of Tobin’s Q when it’s below the mean. Then I will start worrying about whether we are getting a valid read on it. Right now it can be wrong, I don’t care. I am not buying; that is the key.

Chris Martenson: So price to book then, "book" meaning—for those who are not totally familiar with accounting—this is the book value of a company. Meaning, what we have done is we have added up all their assets that we know about and subtracted out their liabilities and say, hey there is an enterprise value here that if you just broke this company up today, what would it be worth. Of course, this is a little bit tricky to estimate sometimes, because Coca Cola... how much is the brand itself worth? There’s a way of valuating that, so I’m not familiar with exactly how all that would get wrapped into the Tobin’s Q because I’m not that familiar with it. But, the idea here is that the amount that people are paying for companies, in terms of their book value, is the second most extreme in all of history, right? It is second only to what, 2000?

Dave Collum: Yeah. What is also true is there’s a bunch of other valuation models. The one that you should be very wary of is price/earnings ratios. That is the one that is toxically wrong. But there is a bunch of others, like Buffett's is price to GDP and the problem is that GDP is now all contorted. Again, assuming it is clean, which is the best-case scenario, Buffett's indicator valuation is about forty percent above the mean. As I said in the write up, I said you not only regress to it, you’ve got to regress through it, because you’ve got to spend half your time on each side of the mean pretty much. That is my freshman math teaching me that one.

Chris Martenson: Good point. Now this has been of course a very frustrating period of time for people who use history, who use common sense, who use fundamentals, who use valuations, things like that. I am thinking of Hussman, great guy, one of the smartest and most astute and mathematically oriented market mavens I’m aware of out there, and it’s just tough sledding whenever I talk to him. And it’s been hard for a while. As you and I were talking about before we started recording, here’s my frustration with all of this, David. I do the same thing, not nearly as comprehensively as you do all at once. But what I do when I’m writing is I start collecting dots and I put them all together. And once I put them in one spot, I’m like... my first reaction is "You have got to be kidding me. How can we be tolerating this?" But we do. And my frustration is that a lot of people still don’t get just how weird and extended things are.

The Fed plays dumb or coy or both, and what I am worried about is when this finally really does break, I have the same fear I think the Fed does. Once the ball gets rolling on this, I think this does go through the mean, and I think it is much worse than 2008. I think the damage is going to be extraordinary, and I am really worried about how my country is going to respond that, because I don’t think we’re going to take it well. My personal projection is that my country will blame somebody, maybe Islamic people, or Russians, or Chinese, it does not matter. That is what I feel.

Dave Collum: Yeah, they do it every time. The good news is there’s very few countries left to bomb. We are already bombing most of them. Yeah, I... here is my fear. One of the parameters in market corrections that is grossly underestimated, is time. And I really try to eliminate time from my portfolio, so I would never buy an option with an expiration date. And if you make the right bet, you want to be able to stay there until it’s either the wrong bet or it pays. And the problem with bear markets and secular bear markets—which I argue we are still in. There’s a lot of bulls saying I’m an idiot, but I argue we’re still in a secular bear market waiting for the third leg down. I am a big fan of the three-leg down model—is time is the killer. So, if you’re a Japanese investor in the Nikkei in ’89, twenty-five years later, you’re not only down seventy percent, you also have given up half of your entire investing life waiting for something good to happen. And if you’re an investor in ’67... You know, in 1981 fourteen years later, you are even on capital gains, but you are down eighty percent on inflation. And you have burned fourteen years of your investment life again. So my fear is they are somehow going to be able to stall this so long that you and I are just going to sit there and we’re just going to—dead cold finger sitting on the mouse waiting to click. And if they don’t wash it out pretty soon, time will start to chip away on all of us.

Chris Martenson: Well it has been chipping away, and of course, I am thankful... oh my gosh, I am praying right now... I am thankful that I am not a pension fund who—those guys and gals have just been getting cleaned. Can you imagine being responsible for the retirements of millions of people potentially, and you need seven and three-quarter percent in this particular environment? I don’t even know where I would begin. I am very frustrated at my own portfolio returns, but I cannot even imagine how bad I would feel if I was responsible for thousands, maybe millions of people.

Dave Collum: Well, if you integrate your... I know what you have done through the years, and if you integrate your returns over the last fifteen years, I bet you beat the S&P.

Chris Martenson: Oh I did, yes.

Dave Collum: Right, as did I. Now, for the last five years, you and I have been getting browbeaten by the bulls, but you have to integrate over a long period. So, we had a huge lead on them in 2009. We were just rocking at that point. And we’ve given up some of that lead, but we still have a comfortable margin, a factor of two or three for me, relative to the ’09 crowd who somehow were smart enough to jump in, although I don’t think many did, actually.

Oh, I don’t know... hopefully this will eventually equilibrate and eventually cause the carnage that’s necessary. The seven and a half to eight percent return crowd, that gets back to the bond market. If the bond market returns zero—which it is priced to return zero or worse, right? It is priced to pay you nothing in dividends and hold up, or to collapse. And if that pays nothing—and I’ve got to do sort of back the envelope in my head... sixty-forty portfolio, you get nothing out of the forty, you’re going to have to get about twelve percent on the sixty. I don’t think equities from this level could possibly give you reproducibly twelve percent a year. I don’t think it’s even theoretically possible, unless of course, inflation’s above twelve percent.

Chris Martenson: Yeah, so on that front, people vary a little bit on where inflation really is, but obviously, it is... so I don’t really go by prices as much as I do looking at credit and money and watching the collapse in M2 velocity, and looking at the fact that the Fed did get some credit out the door. But boy, we must be scraping the bottom of the barrel. I think the last person who wanted to took out a tuition loan for an online university, and I think the last person who could buy an eighty-four month subprime auto loan has been found and rounded up and given a loan. It really feels like we are... I don’t know how much further we go. Can people really continue to extend the housing market in San Francisco? The signs say maybe not. We see a lot of things that look like topping signs here.

So, where is the story that says here’s where we’re going to get this inflation the Fed keeps yapping about? Where does that come from, except a war that accidentally causes oil prices to spike? Which isn’t the inflation they need. They need monetary inflation, not necessarily price inflation. One is a symptom the other is the cause.

Dave Collum: Well, I’m not... okay, so, hat tip: Several years ago, a number of years ago, there were a half a dozen deflationists on the planet, best I can tell. I happen to have realized I should have given Mish Shedlock a hat tip. He was a diehard deflationist, and I thought he was nuts, and other people thought he was nuts, and he’s looking pretty smart right now. I think we are going to have a hybrid model here where I think we are going to get the worst of both scenarios. Where we are going to get inflating prices and deflating assets. And I don’t know what to call that. For years I have been railing on the idea that something so complicated as zillions of prices moving around could possibly described in a binary language of inflation or deflation. That just strikes me as nuts. So I think we’re going to have price of veal and beef going up, and the price of your equities going down, and the price of bonds going down, and possibly the price of houses going down again. I think we are going to end up with a credit crisis because, while energy high-yield bonds continue to tank, liquidation from the funds start, you are going to start having to sell the ones that are not tanking. So, other high-yield bonds that maybe weren’t such a crazy idea will now get crushed. And then lesser risk bonds will start to get sold from portfolios, and it just cascades. I think we will have an inflation/deflation hybrid combo. All the bad things rolled into one. I know it sounds like a doomsday scenario.

But my exit strategy is I think the next recession is going to be a barnburner. At the point where everyone is talking about the recession, I intend to start averaging in. And if Tobin’s Q is at the mean, I will start there. Last time I did, but then it jumped. And I will start averaging in and hopefully I will average all the way down to stupidly low levels of Tobin’s Q and wish I had not done it. But I really would love to get to sixty-forty. I would like to get back there, but I am not doing it until it is a bargain.

Chris Martenson: Well, this is going to call for more patience, right? So a lot of patience so far. I am running out of patience, I have to admit. You say you have restless leg syndrome. I have frustrated eyebrow syndrome. I just keep squinting at my screens going "how are we still here? How is this still this dumb?"

Now what I would love to get your take on—because you and I both have the opportunity from time to time to rub e-mail elbows with, or even face to face some of the big money names out there who are in this. And I’ll tell you Dave, you know, I’ve been at a few major, sort of heavy duty wealth conferences, both presenting and attending, and when I talk to these people who are running these big giant funds, they’re nervous. They are nervous. People... I was talking with a guy who has a giant real estate portfolio, unloading it as fast as he can. It’s in New York City. I asked him why. He said, "You know, our metric is once we see around seven to ten thousand units with a minimum square foot price of three thousand dollars a square foot, we just start running away from this as fast as we can." Three thousand a square foot, right? That is like at the low end. They have apartments there that are going for four, four and a half to five thousand a square foot, and the people who are managing the assets complain that there is really nowhere to look at this point in time; not within sectors, and not across the globe. Nobody can find price, nobody can find value, and everybody is concerned that they are over paying. And here’s the fun part: Everybody thinks they are a little closer to the exit than the next guy and will be able to protect their clients in the next downdraft. What are your thoughts there?

Dave Collum: [Laughter] They are nuts. I think the reason the third leg down model works is because everyone knows when it starts. I think the fear of "not again," it gets so compelling, so overwhelming. I believe that when the secular bear market is over, people will swear off asset classes in their entirety and they will say "I am just never, ever, ever again going to buy that. That is just a piece of garbage and I am not buying it, I have been duped three times." Last night I had one of my business school colleagues tell me to buy real estate... commercial real estate... and she said "that has been a really great investment." I am going "yeah okay; I will put that on my wish list. I will buy something that has boards on the windows." The reach for yield is going to kill people. They sold hundred-year Mexican junk bonds, I mean... "Mexican junk bond" is redundant in my opinion, but they sold hundred-year bonds in Mexico. Nestle got negative interest rate bonds... a corporate bond that is a negative rate. This is certifiably nuts. And it will just drive us nuts. Then one day it will crack and the ice under our feet, you’ll hear it crack and you’ll go "that was it." I remember when it did it in ’07. I know you and I were waiting for it, and waiting for it, and then it finally did in ’07 when you heard a crack and the internal Bear-Stearns hedge funds went down, and they were supposedly little things, and you go "no, no, no... Something is going on in there." And Tonta, that woman writing from inside the system—we’ll hear that again, I think. I think we will get that.

We kind of got it in August, right? The markets started to break. They started to dysfunction in August, and then somehow they pulled off a stick save. I don’t know how they did it. Guys like Eric Hunsader said he could see the markets breaking. There was complete air pockets, malfunctions, everything was wrong and will do that. They saved it, but you can only save these things so many times before one gets by you. It is like a hockey goalie.

Chris Martenson: Yeah, so in terms of how they saved that one, now there were a couple there, in August and also an October save. What are your thoughts there?

Dave Collum: Well, I don’t know. I really have not a clue how they saved it in August. They couldn’t drop rates, I didn’t see any evidence of huge influxes, although maybe I’m forgetting that Draghi dumped some money in or something. They somehow have the psychology, they have the leveraged speculators not willing to run for the exits yet. They were able to head them off at the pass. The fact that the system is fifty percent more leveraged than it was in ’07 is just so staggering. And you’ve shown charts with the little blip and the leverage and the damage it did and how it’s just gone exponential since then.

This is one of these when Dave and Chris get together and lament how crazy the world is moments. At some point, when it finally is true and we are shown to be correct, it is not going to be satisfying. We are not going to be sitting there partying in party hats and noise makers, because it is also going to be a blood bath. There’s going to be a lot of human suffering when this finally lets go, I think.

Chris Martenson: Well, indeed there will of course, and I think that is what everybody is a little bit afraid of. So, what are you detecting in your communications with people who are talking with you, who you consider to be well connected, plugged into markets, market rhythms, all of that? Except for your colleague, who very helpfully has said "buy commercial real estate," and I think your colleague may want to check out what Sam Zell is doing right now. He has obviously been through a few cycles; he is unloading his commercial real estate as fast as he knows how.

Dave Collum: Is he doing it again? Because he called the top at the last one, right? He sold his entire empire in ’07 and that was the bell. That was ding, ding, ding, that was it when he... it seemed like people knew it too. When Sam Zell emptied his empire, you go "wow, that is a top call."

Chris Martenson: And I think if I remember right, he sold off like almost forty billion of it to BlackRock, so he really...

Dave Collum: Yeah. So who do I talk to? I chat all the time with some guys who are pretty smart and they’re getting crushed. So if you look at someone like David Einhorn, he’s down... last count I saw was twenty-one percent. I know he is frustrated... both his longs and his shorts are going against him. And when guys who are that smart are losing money, the market... What it means is the winners are the dumb guys. In the past, I was talking about the dumb money being the retail guys, and so the leveraged speculators are unloading on the dumb guys at the end and they call it distribution and they talk about shearing the sheep. I don’t think that’s going to happen this time.

The retail guys are not buying these assets up, and the leveraged speculators are just going to have to unwind them to each other, and that’s not going to happen. And so I think... you’ve got risk parity funds, that’s... oh the bond market, that’s what you want to pay attention to. Guys like Ray Dalio says the way you make money off bonds is you lever them up to the point where you can sort of lever up and get the same returns as equities, and the same risk as equities. Which, I don’t think you need to lever to get that. But what it does, three/fourfold leveraging of a bond fund, and when it starts unwinding, those risk parity bond funds are going to unwind so quickly. They are going to be margin called from desks and as I said in my "Year in Review," Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater might become a bank on some Sunday night, right?

Chris Martenson: Well this is... obviously we are seeing it is a big story... I don’t really recall seeing a lot about this lately, but I think just as recently as mid-summer, there were a lot of articles talking about the complete lack of liquidity in bond markets. And not just the treasury markets and the other ones that are completely owned by the central banks at this point like the Japanese government bond market by the Bank of Japan, but the corporate bond markets too. Very, very, very low liquidity. And so we just saw that sort of all come to a head with the gating of that junk bond fund and then the closure of another, and then another. So the junk bond’s clearly have been tip toeing out the back door since about June. They started thundering out the front door starting about a month, month and a half ago. Still, a lot of complacency, I feel. People look at that and I’ve got to tell you, that’s kind of the same warning signs that I saw in 2007 well before we started to see anything really go off the rails in 2008.

Dave Collum: Well, you know, you may be able to help me here. The word "liquidity" has multiple meanings to me, best I can tell. And some of them are intractable to me. So the simplest of all of course is the idea that an asset is liquid if you can get out of it without altering its price much, right? So, if you have a million dollars’ worth of Microsoft, you can sell it. It is a highly liquid stock. If you have a million dollars’ worth of a local bank stock, that is a penny stock, you cannot sell it. So, that one is very illiquid. I get that liquidity. And then the bond market—you can have liquidities like that where there’s just, they call it a buyers strike. Where you want to sell and people say I am not buying. And during the crisis in ‘07/08/09 I was in a conference at one of Yale’s mortgage gurus. I say that tongue in cheek, but he thinks he is. He said "I don’t know why they didn’t just reprice in the mortgage backed securities." I said because A.) no one knew what was in them, and B.) it happened too fast, so everyone just stepped to the sidelines and said "I’m not buying anything right now," and therefore they became illiquid.

Then you get the liquidity in the repo market and this notion that the whole money system relies on having collateral of a certain quality. And as the central banks are buying up that quality collateral themselves, then the banking system is missing that. Do you understand that better than me? Because it would not take much.

Chris Martenson: Well, there are those pieces, which I think you did a great job explaining, and then there is just the idea of liquidity in terms of movement. So to me an illiquid issue as I was reading about this guy who owns a bond fund and he put up a corporate issue for sale, and there was a whole bid/ask stack there apparently, but he put the issue up and a day later it was still sitting there. That means he spent twenty-four hours just trying to get rid of one CUSIP from one issue and that... it just did not go anywhere. So, when we say there’s no liquidity it means the depth and the breadth of the trades are very, very low. Then you are talking about a quality liquidity as well. Once you have this atrocious quality stuff, there might be a lot of it, and a lot of it is changing hands. But that’s the kind of stuff, when the worm turns, it often just freezes. Nobody wants to bid for it at all because nobody knows what it's worth at that point. Because the value of something at least in part is due to the fact that you still can sell it somebody. As soon as you cannot sell it to anybody easily, its value might suddenly be defined by something terrifying like its actual intrinsic value.

Dave Collum: Yeah, and then you reach a point where the funds... So they start throwing away the rule book and they start... even though the funds might not have any lockout mechanism, that basically they turn a blind eye in what you used to think of as infinitely liquid funds where you could just pull your money out whenever you want. They seize up and they stop letting you withdraw your money. And so there’s a liquidity problem there. But let’s say you have some sort of money market fund which is critically dependent on having JGBs from japan as collateral, and then the Bank of Japan buys every JGB on you. So then the question is: How does your fund function if buy law, by mandate, you need them and they don’t exist? So I think that’s another... I think that also gets the name "liquidity." It is all part of that whole repo thing. I would be a liar if I told you I understood the repo/reverse repo market. I have spent a lot of energy trying to understand it and it still baffles me. I am not stupid, right?

Chris Martenson: It is baffling of course, and nobody understands it all how the derivative market works. I am comfortable saying that. I have talked to a lot of people who write derivatives, who are intimate with them, can really explain... "derivative" isn’t a thing. It is not like I decided to sell you a flashlight and we could both agree it’s a flashlight. A derivative is a contract. It is twenty to forty to a hundred pages, depending on how dense your lawyers want to get with it. So these derivatives, they are just big giant paper contracts, and of course any contract can be a little dense, but these will refer to what the parties, the counter parties and other related derivative contracts, and if this happens then it will be priced this way and that. It is just they are very complex.

I do remember where I formed a lot of my opinions about this was when... I think it was Warren Buffett bought... I think it was General Ray and this reinsurer had fourteen thousand plus derivative contracts on the books and he started unwinding those and it took them years and they never could figure out what they were worth and this was just fourteen thousand of these contracts. There are millions of them outstanding in just an individual firm like JP Morgan. And that was where he developed his idea that they are weapons of mass destruction. Financial weapons of mass destruction.

Then we saw Greece go belly up and default back a number of years ago. And the ruling body for derivatives said "oh yeah, it’s not technically a default. We know they missed their coupon payment, and other things you would say is a default moment, but we are not going to call it a default." And it took them months to declare that a default because behind back doors they had to figure out how they were going to settle the market for what turned out to be 78 billion notional outstanding, with only 3.8 billion at risk, of which 1.8 billion ultimately ended up changing hands. It took them months to figure out how they were going to settle that 1.8 billion dollar bet... billion with a B. These things number in... potentially the value at risk in a fast moving interest rate environment could be in the trillions of dollars. Could be, right?

Dave Collum: The thing to remember also, a great example of what you are describing also is counter party risk, where you may be owed money, but if you’re owed money by some guy who’s wearing a barrel with two straps, you’re not going to get paid. Back in the mortgage crisis, the mortgage backed securities were basically insured _____ [00:42:39] credit default swaps by a bunch of leveraged hedge funds. So your insurance company had no assets. They had no collateral. They had... unlike regulated insurance companies that supposedly have big huge wads of stuff they can use to pay out when they need to... when the credit default swaps are held by leveraged hedge funds, you’re not going to get paid. And so, all of a sudden, you think your hedge... I remember when Citigroup says "don’t worry we are hedged," I am going "hedged by whom?" Who can hedge Citigroup? And so yeah, derivatives are a mess. I think Buffett got duped. And he admitted it, but he still screws around in that market. That little old man is like the mafia guy and he’s not as much of a country boy as he likes to pretend.

Chris Martenson: [Laughter] You don’t think so, huh?

Dave Collum: No, I do not think so.

Chris Martenson: I don’t know how much time you spent writing this fabulous year-end review, I’m sure it’s quite a bit. Hundreds of citations. And when you put it all in one spot, is your faith in humanity bolstered or crushed? What happens?

Dave Collum: Oh, it is an interesting... let me first make a couple of comments about the writing of it. I have people say "how do you do it?" "How do you find time?" Questions like that. Sometimes it is just sort of curiosity, sometimes it is critical, believe it or not. The way I do the thing is I collect all the information and I read with a purpose. The reason I do it is it makes me read when I am reading with an idea that at the end there has to be a narrative. So I read with the idea of finding themes. I get to around the first of November and I have about four to five hundred pages of quotes, links, comments, excerpts, in a Word file that are randomly distributed. They are not sorted at all. Then I sort them, and then I write the sections. It takes me about thirty days at night, maybe three or four hours a night writing to write the thing.

William F. Buckley used to write a book in a hundred and sixty hours first draft, so I try to be inspired by that idea. I got eighteen hours in a day, and if I put fourteen or fifteen into my full time job, and then another four into this, I am okay. I will live with that. And that’s just to my critics. At some level they can kind of take a hike for all I care, but if they want to know how I do it, that’s how I do it. That is my hobby, that’s my... they go do wine tasting, I write.

Then at the very end, I find the themes. This year, what made it so hard is the themes were elusive to me this year at some level.

Greece was a great theme. Weren’t we told all year long that Greece was going to destroy the world, and then they voted a referendum that looked like it would destroy the Euro system, and then all of a sudden, not only did it not destroy it, but the whole storyline disappeared.

Chris Martenson: Oh, I love disappearing storylines. You want to know the other big one that just disappeared and I could not believe it was the Ashley-Madison hack. There were a lot of unfortunate names on that list. Wasn’t that amazing that the media somehow forgot to troll through all of that and find all of those names from the people at State Department and elsewhere? I mean, that to me was one of the greatest disappearing acts of 2015.

Dave Collum: The other thing I try to do is I collect these little snippets through the year that are just human interest stories and you know, a lot of people don’t know this, the FBI came out and admitted that ninety-five percent of their forensic hair and particle analyses that were used to convict people for decades is wrong. Now, someone explain to me why that did not turn into a colossal... a colossal... scandal. There are guys who have been executed on FBI forensic evidence and the FBI admitted it was wrong. Ninety-five percent. And these stories go right by half, three-quarters, ninety percent of the people. So I try to grab those stories too.

I know it’s long... I don’t have time to write a short one, but if you read it... and if you really do read it, there’s an awful lot of meat on the bones in there. It is really a year of human folly all brought together and I try to stitch it. I try to stitch it together in a way that makes it a plot line. I try to be a wise ass. By the way, I hammer Hillary. I know there are Hillary fans. If you read as much about Hillary as I have, you would realize that she should be in prison and she’s a sociopath. And anyone who votes for Hillary in my opinion, if they knew what I knew and still voted for Hillary because she’s a woman, you are selling your soul in my opinion. You only get one, and you sold it if you vote for her. She... I... everyone says "all the politicians are all crooked..." No. Hillary has her own zip code in that category.

Chris Martenson: You want to know... So it doesn’t take much to... I don’t do politics at all, but she completely lost me forever when I saw her on TV, knowing she was being filmed, laughing about the execution of Muammar Gaddafi. Who, whether you like him or love him or hate him or all that, once you read about what Muammar actually did for his country, yes he was strong man, but you kind of have to be one in the region. But his people had the highest standard of living in all of Africa. Somehow, that offended us greatly and so NATO took him out. And so she got on live TV and laughed and said "we came, we saw, he died. Ha ha ha ha." Somebody who can do that loses me on the human level. I don’t care if you’re a woman or a man or whatever. She lost me as a human really badly at that point in time.

Dave Collum: Yeah, and then the other place I go pretty dark is campus life, at the very end. I had Adam read it pretty carefully and he took out a chunk, which I really liked, but he took out. But what’s going on, on campuses these days is pretty strange. The Yale-Mizzou story is only part of it. I get into it... I actually place myself some level at job risk. I don’t actually think so, I’m a tenured sixty-year old professor and department chair. It would be hard to get me, but at a pretty good record of publishing and fundraising and you name it service... but when I write that stuff in this climate, I certainly could draw fire. But I decided to step back, because I happened to mention this in it, that I know a kid that I think is rotting in prison on a false sexual misconduct conviction, and it kind of tipped me over the edge. And so I’ve been on a campaign to help him, and so I’ve got an Atlantic Monthly journalist who’s going to write about it, and she said the case is appalling and... He got convicted of political correctness in my opinion. I think this epidemic of political correctness on campuses is toxic.

Chris Martenson: Oh yeah, you know I was just at a holiday party and there is a young gentleman and he’s now eighteen at a major university. And I’ve known him his whole life, so anyway... close, very close to him. I was asking him about his freshman year and he said oh my God, one of his stories he said, the PC thing is so intense that he and his friends get together and they have these hazard stories where they’re all afraid to have any interaction with women. Nobody... none of his friends will even remotely talk to a woman who might be even slightly drunk, because they know... the hazard stories they’re passing around is that they could end up in prison if anything goes wrong and even a week later she decides to remember this thing differently, like this is a legitimate hazard story for young men now, is that they may well be charged with something that doesn’t necessarily have the same burden of proof. Or I’m sure you’re more familiar with this than all that, but that certainly wasn’t... I grew up with a different set of concerns and fears, but it was interesting that for him a dominant theme of his experience was having to watch what he said and did very carefully knowing it was being put under a lens that was a moving target, is how he described it.

Dave Collum: And by the way, this is not so... Related to police brutality. There are bazillions of policemen out there and there’s some really striking videos, but the rational person could say yes, but they were selecting spectacular cases. And as a consequence, it’s not anywhere near as rampant as we’re being told. This actually is a pretty rampant problem. If I had a son in college, I’d be very scared. Because the way it works now, is if your son has sex with a young damsel consensually, and they are somewhat intoxicated, which you know, I don’t know many people who went through college who didn’t fit that description a few times. She can turn around and charge him with sexual misconduct and that guy just got thrown into the system and he’s not coming out undamaged. And it’s that striking. He can get a signed affidavit from her saying I wanted to have sex, and she can still turn around and turn him into a wretched soul fast. And this is not because of the kids. This is because of the adults in the system who have totally lost their way. I have attempted to fix it here. I mean, I have actually expressed my concerns to our dean and provost saying "you have got to do better than this." I think our president has spoken out against the idea of this hypersensitivity, but it is very dangerous.

I will tell you, if you get charged with sexual misconduct on a campus, I don’t think the courts can possibly go there. In fact, the courts are overturning these decisions fast, but if you get kicked off a campus for sexual misconduct, good luck getting a job. You just spent two hundred thousand dollars to get a job and you are not going to get one.

Chris Martenson: Let’s go further then, that this idea of this correctness that is pervading all levels of thought. I’ve seen... I know you wrote about it, but this idea that there are ideas that are too dangerous to discuss. It is like the Lord Voldemort idea. Ideas that shall not be named, right? I thought that an important part of my college career was getting my mind expanded, and that was important to me. I had a pretty standard liberal arts education, but I was exposed to things that frankly were unusual and new to me, and I thought that was a good part of the process. Is it really to the point now in your estimation where we are... Are the minds as closed as they seem from the outside? Because I only get the news, right? I peer in from the outside, but it looks pretty atrocious to me sometimes just how virulently narrow-minded some of the arguments are.

Dave Collum: Yes and no. Here is the funny part, I think most of the campus is proceeding along, paying no attention. So for example, if you look at Yale, and you look at all the press it got, my guess is that there was a little pocket of kids who are screaming and the press was surrounding them and it looked like all of Yale was going bananas when in fact it was just a small pocket of kids who were going bananas.

So in some sense, campus life is just moving forward. On the other hand, any kid on this campus is at risk of that disaster. I was talking to a kid who is editor in chief of an online newspaper that pushes back against these things, and he actually said that there’s about ten virulent activists representing all the different causes, total, and that they all hang out together and they all support each other’s causes and they organize the campaigns. So it’s quite possible that the campuses are being disrupted by a pretty tiny minority of students. I don’t know if this... I am guessing, for example, in Missouri, I am guessing the race problems are worse than at Yale. That would be my guess just because of the region of the country. I just... it’s pretty mind boggling, but my biggest fear is the sexual misconduct. I am sure my kids can avoid being racist. I am not confident they can avoid having sex with drunk women. Fortunately, they are out of college now. I don’t know what I would tell an entering freshman male to do, besides you could be in a world of trouble. And how do you... you know, you can go abstinence I guess; probably some people think that is great, but that usually does not work, right?

Chris Martenson: It raises... You know, I have been doing this hazard story thing with my own kids too. My eldest, she’s twenty one and then I have a seventeen year old boy, fifteen year old girl, and when all of this police brutality stuff started really coming out, it’s pretty obvious to me that there’s a real problem, just a giant epidemic. And that even anything other than complete, immediate and full compliance, no matter how outrageous or how illegal, or how against your rights... I did not even bother teaching my kids their rights. There is no such thing as rights at this point in our country. Because even if your rights get violated, your only recourse is to sue the police in a civil matter. And if it’s really, really egregious, maybe the justice department will come in and whitewash the whole thing for you later. But it seems to me that this idea that we have rights... that all got really just atrociously eroded, and I’m wondering, where did that really come... Really, I have to say I think a lot of things went badly off the rails in our country’s response to 9/11 and it’s going to take a long time to work that out of our system, if ever.

Dave Collum: Yeah, certainly the Patriot Act, things happened since then. And a huge issue, which again, I talked about a little this year. A lot more, I think last year, is civil asset forfeiture. What a lot of people don’t know is that you could be driving down the road, they pull you over, if you happen to have stuff of value in your car, they can confiscate it. You say "no, that cannot happen." Yes, in fact it’s estimated that $2.5 billion has been confiscated without a charge affiliated, and the vested interest is that 80% gets to go straight to fund the police department that confiscates it. And so, there are notorious stretches of highways in places where you don’t drive down that highway with anything of value in your car. There’s video tapes of prosecutors talking about how to maximize your asset forfeiture seizure from the guy... one of these guys is sort of slobbering over the idea of getting a Mercedes from a guy and then they blew it and they missed the Mercedes and here’s what they did wrong. Stunning stuff. Bloomberg wrote about it and said... and the success rate of getting your assets back is very low.

And the problem I have is if they do it to me, my sense of vengeance would be so high that I would become blood of patriots pretty fast I think. And I don’t want to go there, but if someone stole my money, I don’t know how I would contain my anger. And by the way, I would have no... There would be no morality left in my response. The constraint would be fear of reprisal, and that’s it. I don’t know why more things like this don’t happen. You don’t have to be a medicated young teen to go nuts. And so I just pray no one seizes my assets, because I swear to God, for your sake and for the rest of society’s sake, I’m going to try to find a way to rectify that injustice.

Chris Martenson: Your dial settings include mild mannered college professor, and then there’s one more click of the dial and you go straight to vengeance.

[Laughter]

Dave Collum: And you know, people should in my opinion. I don’t know what the appropriate response is, but I do know the appropriate response is not to rollover. That is not the appropriate response. Rolling over... I owe it... we owe it... did you ever read the Robert Dorner Manifesto? The LA cop who wrote a manifesto before declaring war on the LAPD?

Chris Martenson: Did he write on the militarization?

Dave Collum: Yeah, he wrote about the corruption in LAPD and then he ended up in a shootout in a house and died. But his manifesto was a compelling document.

Chris Martenson: I never did read that.

Dave Collum: Oh yeah, I cited it I think in last year's, or maybe the year before's "Year in Review". And he wrote about all the people in the LAPD and he said this guy is good, this guy is bad, this guy is corrupt, this guy is stealing stuff, this guy does drugs... he itemized his way through the LAPD, but what was striking... and so then he declared war and ended up dead, right? But what was striking was when you read his manifesto, he was not a loner, he was not isolated, he had friends, there was meaning in his life, and he just decided he had a calling.

Chris Martenson: That is interesting.

Dave Collum: It is an amazing story, actually.

Chris Martenson: That is interesting, yeah; I know I am sure... I did not pay enough attention; of course, the media cannot memory hole something like that fast enough. We need him to be a crazy terrorist of some kind, loner that is what we need in our stories.

And so yeah... this view from Mount Stupid, it’s been an incredible view. And I think for 2016—but I’ve been saying this every year for three—but I really think that obviously we’re closer to the day when we have to sort of deal with the consequences of our actions, and I mean that “our” broadly, the Federal Reserve's actions. I really think though that 2016, it would really surprise me if we escape without getting into some really hairy market correction territory. What do you think?

Dave Collum: I went to an investment conference in Vegas. I go to this conference each year with the Stansbury Group and give a talk. And Porter Stansbury, who I think is a genius, he’s a funny guy, and he’s got a bad rep out there. Someone hung a bad rep on him, but I think he is really smart, and he says in 2017 the emerging market debt rollover is going to max out. I saw the plots, I saw the slides and it was a compelling story. So, when the emerging market debt market goes down for the count and they start rolling over and insolvency starts showing up big time, then I think... so that could be the trigger. That could be like Fasby 157 when, I think that was the trigger for the mortgage market was the legalized... the accounting rules they put into place, all of a sudden the MBS world fell apart. I think the merging market rolling over in earnest will do it.

We are not even there yet. That is the irony. I think it is rolling over now, but we are not... we have not hit the peak rollover. Remember that iconic plot of the mortgage resets that got posted ten thousand times on the internet? There has to be an analogous one for emerging market data out there somewhere. I have not been able to find it, but it has to be out there somewhere.

Chris Martenson: Yeah, there are two things I’ve been tracking there. One is the sovereign debt loads, but also it is really the corporate debt. There is a lot of ink on that. Bloomberg has written pieces, Reuters, et cetera, so you can easily find out what the numbers are. It is really astonishing the amount of new debt that got taken on in the last five or six years, some astonishing number like four or five trillion dollars. All dollar denominated, which of course, think about it from Mexico’s standpoint with the Peso hitting brand new, all-time lows, or the Brazilian Real, or South Africa, it’s just stunning. So yes, a lot of... you know, with bubbles this big, all bubbles are in search of a pin, yes, I think that absolutely emerging market debt is a pin. Is it the longest pin out there? It might be.

Dave Collum: The other thing... someone said how bad off... I cannot even remember the asset class was going to be if there were a recession right now. It struck me that it is the very existence of that risk that probably brings in the recession at some level. So it’s the top heaviness of the credit system.

Corporate debt is not only huge, and you hear about all the corporate cash on the balance sheet, and every year I try to go into that. They got a lot of cash on the balance sheet; they got way more debt, right? That is like saying I have $100K in the bank and $500K on my credit card; I’m rich because I got $100K, right? It just does not make sense. And they’ve been using it to buy back shares and LBOs, so that the creditors are buying up the companies essentially. And corporate earning profit margins have hit all-time highs, and they’re serious mean regressing things. Profit margins don’t stay at all-time highs for long. And so all of a sudden the profit margins will shrink, the PEs will soar, and of course they stop buying back stocks when things go to hell.

And the support underneath the buy backs is going to go away, so I just don’t see how this thing doesn’t unravel in some stupendous sort of way that I hope I’m out of the splash zone.

Chris Martenson: You and me both, and I guess we’ll just have to stay in touch because I do have a buy list of things I am interested in owning. And I’m going to be as patient as I know how to be on all of this, but I haven’t found anything compelling to invest on the long side in a while, except for silver. I have bought silver in the past year, and I bought a little more gold a little while ago, but that’s just sort of nibbling and It’s only to make me feel like I have some sense of purpose in life doing something.

Dave Collum: I bought gold all year for the first time since ’05. So once I got... ’05 I said okay, I have enough gold, then I was feeling very rich in 2011, and then I got beat up, but I finally started buying again. It has not made me look terribly smart yet, although it is up fourfold. Are you buying miners?

Chris Martenson: No, not yet.

Dave Collum: I will tell you, their inability to make money is epic. I got to talk to the CEO of Seabridge Mining, and he said the entire industry is filled with disasters. He might be one too, for all I know, but I have a terrible time buying in gold minor because they had gold running at $1,900 an ounce and they couldn’t make money. And if you can’t make money at nineteen hundred an ounce, you are in the wrong business.

Chris Martenson: That is why I avoided all the shale players back when they were not making money at oil at $100. If you did not like them at $100, you are going to hate them at $35.

Dave Collum: I blew that one. [Laughter] I held on... I have been white knuckling it all the way down again. They did well for years. I bought 'em low, but...

Chris Martenson: I know. It was the negative free cash flow that bothered me. And so they were basically spending—even at the peak of it all in 2014 before things rolled—they were spending a dollar fifty in capex to get a dollar of new revenue, and I hate business models like that, particularly when your shale wells deplete eighty-five percent in three years and you’ve been at it five years. You should be hitting some sort of steady state somewhere in there where your capex out and your cash flow in are balancing out and it makes money. I did not see it. So that bothered me.

Dave Collum: A bright side to that story is about a year and a half ago I went to University of Montana/Montana State. Both schools, my colleagues in chemistry were bitching about the fact that the state was just hoarding their revenues and not spending it. They thought that was wrong and I kept saying are you sure? Because governments that don’t spend money are pretty rare and pretty special. And I bet you right about now they’re going "not spending all that money is looking pretty sound right about now." Now Alaska supposedly gets ninety percent of its revenues from oil. Wrap your brain around that one.

Chris Martenson: They are going to have an income tax for the first time this year.

Dave Collum: Yeah, and they are going to... as I said in "The Year in Review," they can see bankruptcy from their front porch.

Chris Martenson: Think about the whiplash those poor people in Alaska have. Those guys out in their cabins with their big beards, you know, they got a Grizzly out back and they’ve been getting these checks every year, and instead of a check they get a bill. That is a big turnaround.

Dave Collum: I know, there’s a lot of rude awakenings coming and it’s going to be painful. The youngsters, the twenty-somethings in the job market are getting paid squat and now we’re about to hit a down turn. So here you are earning nothing, or unemployed, and now we are going to hit a downturn. You can say "why are we going to get a down turn?" Because we always get a downturn, right? It is just like spring follows winter. You always get downturns and the next one is coming off a meta stable upturn. The whole thing feels wrong, the narrative is wrong, the plotline is wrong, and the only thing that’s right is that they were able to pump assets. That is the only storyline this whole thing is based on.

Even that, I go at in the review where I talk about the farm. I use a farm metaphor where I point out that the Fed seems to think if they can jack up the price of the farm, they will jack up the output. And there’s not a shred of evidence that jacking up the assessed value of the farm jacks up the output. And if you don’t jack up the output, you’re still putting out bushels of wheat, you’re still putting out cows, you’re still putting out milk and if somehow you sold the farm to someone else, someone else just got a horrendous deal buying the farm. You have not increased anything; you have just increased the price.

Chris Martenson: Well that is going to be a hard sort of thing for somebody like Bernanke to understand, or Yellen, both of whom have not spent a lot of time running businesses, they have never owned a farm, so I think your metaphor is completely lost on them. That is probably not going to work out; you will have to come up with another one. Maybe using textbooks, I don’t know. But at least I know you’ve got one good read on your shelf, The Courage to Act, it’s going to be amazing. I hope you read it, because I am never going to, so I need you to tell me what is in there.

Dave Collum: I am not reading it.

Chris Martenson: [Laughter] I cannot bring myself to do it, I just can’t.

Dave Collum: I have heard it is bad too. I would read it if someone said it is a nice story, or whatever. I think he made a mistake writing it by the way. Because he had been able to keep himself shrouded in mystery and then all of a sudden he comes out and tells what he was thinking, you go "Really. Are you kidding me? That is what was going on in your skull?" So I think he put blogger porn out there on the internet for everybody and I think he should have shut his mouth and been inscrutable.

Chris Martenson: Like George W. Bush... where did he go? Nobody knows, he is out painting or something, he just disappeared, nobody wants to hear him speak, and that is fine. You know.

Dave Collum: That is right, he’s looking pretty good right about now.

Chris Martenson: Well, all right, you know obviously I could talk to you forever, and we should do this again. I don’t know if we have to wait to have a "Year in Review" to have a podcast because you and I could just go on and on and on, on any one of these areas. And of course, this is going to be a fascinating year. I am reasonably convinced there is going to be a military accident somewhere in the Middle East; I am reasonably convinced there is a financial accident coming. I think Europe’s straining and looking like it wants to burst apart for a whole host of extraordinarily good reasons. Japan, who knows, that’s a slow motion disaster going on there in all sorts of ways, so lots to talk about. And love to have you back.

Dave Collum: Yeah, hopefully by then we will be able to see the consequence of the Syrian refugee crisis, because I think that might be the story of the year, and I don’t think the consequence... you’ve got a million and a half Syrians inside Germany and it’s not cold yet.

Chris Martenson: Yeah, I was talking... I was sitting next to a woman at a dinner, her husband’s at the UN, she is a reasonably well known newscaster of a country, she is from Serbia, and she almost went to tears. This was a nice dinner, and I was like if you don’t want to talk about this, please just forget I ever asked this, but would you be willing to talk to me about what’s going on with the refugees? She immediately wanted to talk about it, almost in tears saying when she was last back in Belgrade she did not recognize it at all because her beautiful city, small, very small country, not that many people. She said every street corner had four or five twenty-something year old Syrian men on the corner who had nothing else to do, and she did not feel safe, and the culture was off... just every... just that they have been overrun in some way and she was very, very upset about it. And it was a cultural sort of an insult, it was a "what are we going to do" practically, how do these people integrate? They don’t want to. Brussels was telling us we have to take these people, Brussels was providing no money, but a lot of threats, and on, and on, and on it went. So it was obviously a very important flash point and I understood what she was talking about. I live in a town of two thousand, and there were some towns we have heard about of the same size as mine that have that many refugees housed in them now. I think that would be a little bit troubling to be honest. For me, personally.

Dave Collum: Well for you and I the equivalent might be if we had one of these horrific downturns and New York City emptied up in upstate New York, right? Upstate Connecticut. And all of a sudden you could find yourself living in a town full of people who... you know, it’s one thing when it’s an immigration where the person says "look, I wish to be in the United States" or "I wish to be in Germany." It is another thing when they just flush out of there. I have been trying to figure out what the density of young male really is, because some of it could be propaganda. But if it’s really all twenty something males, there’s nothing... there’s nothing more dangerous than a group of twenty something males. From any culture, that is a dangerous group. And if literally, if many, many millions of twenty something males from a culture that does not really agree with Western Europe had flooded in, it is... that’s not Ellis Island, that’s a very different situation.

Chris Martenson: Yeah, and not just males who flooded in, but they flooded in from the same country that maybe you bombed.

Dave Collum: That is really a very touchy little detail isn’t it?

Chris Martenson: Kind of a touchy detail there, just a little thing there, because you know, I also have a vengeance setting on my dial, but if you basically bombed my country and hurt my family, you have a problem on your hands.

Dave Collum: I would be getting even. I just stated that before. I would... you know, if I were in one of those countries, I would have "terrorist" written on my forehead I think.

Chris Martenson: It is so human, and it is understandable of course, that the West seems incapable of understanding that the people don’t appreciate our fine attempts to transform their country using Raytheon hardware. It is just such a tone-deaf moment of western journalism. It is astonishing. But here we are, and I think that’s going to be a flashpoint potential. Again, it is just one of many, many pins I see out there that could burst our current illusion of prosperity. So with that, let’s do this again sometime soon.

Stephan's Christmas Message

Fantastic Conversation: always enlightening. Thanks.

Well, Chris I feel awkward about what I am going to say but need to anyway. So, just respond as honestly as you wish–no hard feelings.

Is your "BUY LIST" for sale? Would you feel comfortable sharing it with us? I do think it could be the beginning of a great PP.com dialogue where we each jump in with our thoughts and reasons. The group project might be very useful for all of us, especially financial neophytes like me. I fully realize that that concept of "buy list" has been thrown around for many moons here at PP.com but when it gets down to specifics, very little is said, and I can somewhat understand why. So I'm just throwing this out as a feeler–maybe the group would want to start such a cooperative project?? Too dangerous?? Too complex??

A different angle Ken.

I read your piece Ken.

I see things differently. There was a time when we had land we could expand into.(apologies Blackeagle). This has led to a certain frontier mentality of individual rights being more important than living within the constraints of a finite planet.

This anachronism will fade, but it still lingers.

That there is going to be a one-world government is no more by design than the sun rising in the morning is by mortal design.

That there are people jockeying for positions of Influence in the new structure is a given. They are however, an effect not a cause. They are opportunists. Do they conspire? Is the Pope a Catholic?

Asimov stated that the size of an Empire is dependent on it's speed of communication. The speed of communication at present is the speed of light. Therefore the natural size of this empire is at least the size of the planet. It will extend out for a radius of three light days.(7777exp7 kms) If Einstein's equations hold, which I doubt.

This is exactly what it is like as a species prepares to migrate to the stars. It is a Fire in a Madhouse. The Mycelia, via Terrance Mckenna.

There was a time when we had vast areas of empty land we could

There was a time when we had vast areas of empty land we could expand into (apologies to black eagle).
And now Arthur is bemoaning that it’s no longer us. Now there are vast areas of empty land, voideof any human life, for ISIS / the Moslem Caliphate to expand into.

(Apologies, Arthur).

I too hate the thought, but the irony really hits me in the gut. I suspect you were saying it hit you in the gut, too.

Mad Max or something else

I bemoan nothing other than the extinction of my people Michael.

The point that I was trying to get across was that we can no longer be the same ape that expanded out of Africa. The world is full. Therefore either we adjust to that world or we make the sort of world that is Syria our home. That is the world Mad Max.

BTW Lyndon la Rousche has pulled the trigger. He warns that Jan 1 is the day it all goes belly up.

So do you believe Larouche? and that they're right?

My experienqe with the larouche party has been:
1) they’re nuts
2) they play fast and loose with the truth
3) nonetheless, their overall “aaah! aaah! British Bankers! ” has been shown to be at least partially correct.

Which leads me to a question, do you believe the boy who cried wolf many times, and was right once?

And if you believe them this time, do you think they are correct on the timing?

Also, how long is ” immediately after”, as in “immediately after Jan 1”?

Indigestion

He only came on my radar screen 12 hours ago. My impression? An old Marxist with a megaphone. One last hurrah before the transition.

I refuse to censor my offerings. You are all adult enough to make what you will of the information. You don't need me to predigest your food for you.

I, however, need my information predigested as my models are weak and need to be tested on a worthy site. I reject the notion that all men are equal and am prepared to pay good money for profound insight.

Good luck. My understanding is that you are going to need it.. And a lot of preparation.

Burning Barns

I have read David Collum's article and listened to this. One thing I get for sure is I am really on the far side of Mt. Stupid. I get it at some level, but what are these rain drops in our world? Did Noah have anxiety every time it rained up to the 'big' rain?

"The root of suffering is attachment" –Buddha

Three years ago if I had lost my job and could not find another one, I would have blamed myself and wallowed in self misery; the exact wrong thing to do going forward because of my misplaced social expectations or attachments. If I lost my job day there is a good chance that this particular 'misery' would not happen; I would have more then plenty of other things to do. I am not so emotionally or spiritually attached to the empty promises in society now I guess. Today that is my gold.

Thank you again all of you for your words that continue to shake me free of my attachments. I would especially like to thank Arthur Robey, you are a cage rattling exemplar.

Attachment? Fuggetaboutit.

[quote=Sterling Cornaby]

Three years ago if I had lost my job and could not find another one, I would have blamed myself and wallowed in self misery; the exact wrong thing to do going forward because of my misplaced social expectations or attachments. If I lost my job day there is a good chance that this particular 'misery' would not happen; I would have more then plenty of other things to do. I am not so emotionally or spiritually attached to the empty promises in society now I guess. Today that is my gold.

[/quote]

Believe it. I found myself pretty much done and in need of a break 4 months ago. Walked away from a FT job on 9/11/15 (had a burr up my ass that day for some odd reason). I start back up here in January.

You would be shocked at how much you can get done in 4 months, including the "down time".

Time2help wrote:Sterling

[quote=Time2help]

[quote=Sterling Cornaby]

Three years ago if I had lost my job and could not find another one, I would have blamed myself and wallowed in self misery; the exact wrong thing to do going forward because of my misplaced social expectations or attachments. If I lost my job day there is a good chance that this particular 'misery' would not happen; I would have more then plenty of other things to do. I am not so emotionally or spiritually attached to the empty promises in society now I guess. Today that is my gold.

[/quote]

Believe it. I found myself pretty much done and in need of a break 4 months ago. Walked away from a FT job on 9/11/15 (had a burr up my ass that day for some odd reason). I start back up here in January.

You would be shocked at how much you can get done in 4 months, including the "down time".

[/quote]

This. About 5 years ago I had significant parts of my life/work/stuff dynamited out from underneath me. About 3.5 years ago I took a look at the remnants of the edifice (which I had worked so long to create and so hard to save the bits and pieces of for the intervening 18 months), and decided to blow up about 80% of the scant remnants.

I took the essentials which remained under one arm and embraced the unknown.

Well there it all is

Commentary on economic conditions is always insightful. But for me there was a lot of strange subtext and social commentary.

Touch my stuff and I will become amoral. Well this is somewhat understandable, the need to prevent injustice and tyrants from becoming powerful, we do need to act. But why not express the same level of commitment to action when broader criminal activity is inflicted on the social and economic body as a whole? Why just when our own personal stash it touched. Being amoral is OK, are we tossing Mahatma Gandhi and Martin Luther King to histories trash pile already?

The biggest problem on college campuses is young men falsely accused of assaulting women? How about some context here? When statistics say that 20 to 25% of women will be sexually assaulted during their college career, is not that the driving problem. In response to a problem of that magnitude, would it not be expected that some false accusations would become part of the problem? Oh, and men having sexual relations with slightly intoxicated women, well that's just what men do, we can't think of trying to affect that general social attitude?

American culture has become self centered to the point of almost becoming narcissistic (in our macro media and economic spheres – there is a quiet revolution taking place below the surface I believe). This is our essential problem upon which all of our three "E" problems turn. The narcissistic attitude is not an aberration, just like we can no longer say that mass shootings are an aberration. Both are founded on and the result of a reductionist and materialistic mythology that has enthroned "survival of the fittest" as the singular guiding principal of our "culture". Isn't it after all the main story of our very existence, the very principle that drives evolution. Isn't the idea that is generally propagated that when I am self centered, acting solely for my own benefit, is when I am most productive. And when I am most productive is when I benefit the whole? What a poisonous lie.

Can we evolve to ecological thinking fast enough to survive. When we understand that cooperation is just as power a survival strategy competition. That cooperation is not working to the lowest common denominator and that the duality between us and them, me/mine and you/yours is a delusion. When cooperation is seen as individuation, self expression at it's highest level. Competition is a lower level principal that when pushed out of place to it's current position of prominence is actually self destructive to evolution, personal expression and freedom.

We can put all the criminal banksters in jail that we want, create the new and perfect "ism" or economic system, but all we be for naught if we do evolve personally and collectively. We have turned the idea of personal responsibility on its head. Our current cultural paradigm has created a problem that no "asset class" can ever solve.

Cooperation

[quote=treebeard]

…cooperation is just as power[ful] a survival strategy [as] competition. …cooperation is not working to the lowest common denominator and that the duality between us and them, me/mine and you/yours is a delusion. When cooperation is seen as individuation, self expression at it's highest level. Competition is a lower level principal that when pushed out of place to it's current position of prominence is actually self destructive to evolution, personal expression and freedom.

..all will be for naught if we [don't] evolve personally and collectively.

[/quote]

Cooperation is a KEY to developing social capital. So I've spent the last 3 years trying to unlearn and let go of my competitiveness and judgmental tendencies, trying to develop more compassion and an ability to work together. It's not easy when you've been raised in a society of social and economic Darwinists (reduced to "survival of the fittest" as a recipe for success), when you've been rewarded for individually rising to the top, when you've spent decades accidentally tromping on other people's feelings in order to "get the job done". Difficult as it might be, it is absolutely necessary to learn and practice cooperation. (Also gets easier as I get a bit older!)

Cultural capital includes the stories we tell about "what works" and "who we are" as a people. It's time to reject the "survival of the fittest" story and tell a new (old) story about how humans evolved to cooperate. How the group is stronger than one individual. How we need each other to survive. How cooperation can bring out the strengths of each individual. How do we wrest the microphone from the mainstream media to begin telling a new/old story of our culture? An evolving story that can grow and change with the changing times ahead.

How do we get the message out? The people we need to reach are not on this site. A few ideas:

Forward PP emails and other salient analyses

Write letters to the editor

Calmly and politely reject the current cultural message in everyday conversation. Don't be afraid to speak the truth, as you see it, about society & cooperation & the three E's.

Teach classes or lead workshops in understanding the 3 E's, in preparedness, in local food production, in any skill you have that your community could benefit from learning.

By the way, my community has an ongoing project called the "One Valley Prosperity Project". We've identified our community values, what we want to 'preserve and protect', and what our biggest challenges are… All well and good, but the project is mistakenly moving forward with the premise of BAU and continued growth. I believe I've been "disinvited" for wanting to talk about preparing for degrowth.

20 to 25% of college women rape victims = Accurate stat?

That statistic is commonly cited, but it is based on studies with faulty methodology. Partly because feminist "researchers" counted women who merely regretted their sexual encounter the next day as being rape victims.

In my opinion, if you consent to do something with somebody, you cannot retract your consent the next day if it didn't go the way you wanted.

Easy Fix

On the issue of consent there is an easy fix. I believe there is a book that can be bought. In it the parties to the act write the date, the agreement, the agreed positions and time limits. What else? The contract is then signed by witnesses.

To safeguard both parties the act should be witnessed by three, one each for the two parties and a third, preferably a stranger.

Their evidence could be corroborated with a video recording of the passionate event.

oh brother

[quote=Arthur Robey]

On the issue of consent there is an easy fix. I believe there is a book that can be bought. In it the parties to the act write the date, the agreement, the agreed positions and time limits. What else? The contract is then signed by witnesses.

To safeguard both parties the act should be witnessed by three, one each for the two parties and a third, preferably a stranger.

Their evidence could be corroborated with a video recording of the passionate event.

There! Fixed it for you.

[/quote] Seriously Arthur? This would never work you. What you need is an app.

Both parties could then Video acknowledge consent prior to said, err, interaction. To make sure things are on the up and up, a license application and a small fee to cover the minimal cost of having a neutral third party review the consent tapes should work well.

Probably not a bad idea to have a mandatory short and long term insurance policy on a per event basis. The short term could cover court and attorneys costs in the event of a disagreement or change of heart subsequent to said event. Long-term coverage for the unplanned pregnancy…

Ehewwww Censorship

Gheez Pyranablade you discount the statistics then discount victims too? How utterly offensive, lets not go down this path.

AKGrannyWGrit

[/quote]

Granny, you are exhibiting exactly the kind of PC censorship that has become so problematic.

Pyranablade is accurate in discounting those statistics, If you trace the origins of that oft quoted statistic, you will find it is not remotely accurate.

Broadening the definition of Rape to include 'day after regret' is what is truly offensive to the victims of actual sexual assault.

Of course any amount of campus rape is too much But how can you address an issue if you the start the discussion from a false premise?

[quote]

The Bureau of Justice Statistics' "Violent Victimization of College Students" report tells a different and more plausible story about campus culture. During the years surveyed, 1995-2002, the DOJ found that there were six rapes or sexual assaults per thousand per year. Across the nation's four million female college students, that comes to about one victim in forty students. Other DOJ statistics show that the overall rape rate is in sharp decline: since 1995, the estimated rate of female rape or sexual assault victimizations has decreased by about 60 percent.

Eyewww Censorship

Seriously Mememonkey you quote a government statistic that you found on the Internet and take it as gospel? Is it because the government says it is true or because it was found on the Internet that makes it true?

Secondly, how do KNOW what is "truly offensive to Actual victims of sexual assault"? What makes you qualified to speak on behalf of this group?

Thirdly, you state that "any amount of rape is too much" but then discount that statement by following it up with "how can you discuss an issue if you start it with a false premise"? Here is a novel idea rape is wrong and incorrect statistics don't change that fact in any way, shape or form.

Lastly, you blame me for "politically correct censorship that has become so broad" because I have found statements on this thread indifferent, and cavalier. I live in a state that has the highest percentage of rape in the nation. Where did I get the statistic, I it was a fundraising event for AWAIC (Abused a Women's Aid In Crisis). It seems to be alarming and inconceivable that there needs to be a discussion with young men about the dangers of having sex with drunk young women. This "problem" is a symptom of our collective moral degradation that makes this an issue at all. It not about he said, she said and crying wolf. And the article you referenced that downplays rape had an agenda and it wasn't the well being and protection of our daughters.

I find this discussion distasteful but There needs to be at least ONE female that says blaming our young women and complaining about PC correctness isn't a solution either. We are a nation suffering from pervasive moral decay, and yes the pendulum may have swung to an extreme, but as a woman I have no doubt that when a collapse comes no one will care about political correctness.

PC

[quote=AkGrannyWGrit]

I find this discussion distasteful but There needs to be at least ONE female that says blaming our young women and complaining about PC correctness isn't a solution either. We are a nation suffering from pervasive moral decay, and yes the pendulum may have swung to an extreme, but as a woman I have no doubt that when a collapse comes no one will care about political correctness.

AKGrannyWGrit

[/quote]

Once the collapse sets in I would imagine that the punishment for rape will be rather swift…and severe.

BS (bogus stats)

Granny,

Firstly, I fault you for politically correct censorship because that is what you have done here, by taking a single specific statement which was demonstrably factual and an opinion which is arguably common sense and then casting shame on the poster, while discouraging further discussion of his points.

This is not the only time you have behaved similarly I've noticed this in other threads. Not sure who made you moral arbiter here but I find your sanctimonious judgment off putting and counter productive to discussion.

Secondly, I originally was made aware of these bogus stats by listening to an in depth interview with the articulate and well informed feminist/philosopher Christina Hoff Summers. She clearly elucidated the study and origins of the one in five "stat" does that count because she's a woman?

I included an 'internet link to one article with a similar take' because that is the medium we are communicating with. Do a little research yourself, the stat is bullshit, before assailing me with Internet epistemology claims.

You could certainly have raised your concerns, voiced your opinion while being respectful of others or discouraging conversation.

It is this dynamic of shouting down stuff you don't like which is what is so offensive about the whole social justice warrior movement that the OP discussed.

Finally, the notion that diminishing actual rape by conflating it with 'regret the next day; is truly offensive, is an opinion. While I have not been the victim of rape, I have certainly regretted encounters the morning after, as such I am qualified to voice an opinion on this subject, regardless of my gender and I don't need your permission or approval to do so.

how did that go?

[quote=Waterdog14]

By the way, my community has an ongoing project called the "One Valley Prosperity Project". We've identified our community values, what we want to 'preserve and protect', and what our biggest challenges are… All well and good, but the project is mistakenly moving forward with the premise of BAU and continued growth. I believe I've been "disinvited" for wanting to talk about preparing for degrowth.

[/quote]

great post, waterdog.

what was your experience in talking about degrowth in that project, and what were the sticking points?

personal conflict with other member(s)?

people didn't believe your views were accurate, or were too much of a "downer"?

people were too invested with their ego in continuing their present course of actions?

Hope This Horse Dies Soon

Mememonkey, Clearly you have me at a disadvantage as it appears you are an articulate college graduate and I have a high school education so I am not as adept and concise in writing as I would like to be. So I find defending myself against your accusations difficult.

You called me, what was the name, oh yes, sanctimonious and you may be right. This is what I know. I am the only one of 5 women in a group who still regularly posts here. The demographic of the site is predominately male and I think there needs to be, at least on occasion, be a female who posts and offers an alternative view. Ever wonder why these other, more articulate than I, ex-members, except one, are no longer members? It was precisely due to threads like this one. And if the viewpoint is 180 degrees different from the norm watch out, and prepare to get blasted. The tone of this thread has been, from my perspective, oh the poor young men they have to deal with the horrible Politically Correct and then of course the drunk women who change their minds and accuse the young men wrongfully. Statistics are cited, articles posted and who stands up for the young women besides myself? Group think has a specific message and it's not stepping up to stand-up-for our daughters. Tree beard explained the problem rather eloquently. Thank you Treebeard for offering some balance.

Here is the issue, for me this is an emotional issue and you can site statistics and offer articles to say rape isn't such a big deal. But I could tell you of real life stories of brutality, rape, pain, suicide and on and on but I won't go there, just know it's a HUGE issue.

So yes I may be "politically incorrect", "sanctimonious", and "shout down stuff I don't like" and will continue to do so because I represent a demographic that is very seldom represented on this site. Condescension won't deter me and just maybe my morality needs to be heard. My posts only reflect what people say, I do not call names or attack people's character. I hope this horse dies soon as it seems we are continuing to beat it after it has died.

Time2Help I quite agree with you, post collapse, things will be different. God help us all.

Correction

[quote=AkGrannyWGrit]

…and you can site statistics and offer articles to say rape isn't such a big deal. But I could tell you of real life stories of brutality, rape, pain, suicide and on and on but I won't go there, just know it's a HUGE issue.

[/quote]

I would be happy to let this issue die. It is clear you are arguing from a purely emotional perspective as you keep misrepresenting the points I'm addressing.

I can't however let the above statement go uncorrected.

Nobody is trying to prove rape is not a big deal. The issue was/is not " is rape bad horrible evil?". the issue was the use of a demonstrably fraudulent statistic to frame a discussion.

Women do not have a monopoly on concern for our daughters or disgust with sexual assault. To my mind addressing those very real, awful problems starts with an honest appraisal of the scope of the problem, (hint it's not 1 in 4) and defining the problem i.e What constitutes a legitimate definition of sexual assault?

I would add, that we probably do not differ greatly in our view of the decline of morality in our narcissistic industrialized consumerist society. I find myself often agreeing with you. And I generally concur with treebeard as well, although, I think he misconstrued a very real issue and observation Collum made in this case.

You have a legitimate perspective, my suggestion would be to represent it without 'shouting other people down'. that is not a gender issue. It is one of common courtesy.

As to rough justice for rapists in the future, I'm all for it, unless it's the current crop of nut job social justice crybully warriors on campus that are meting it out.

Another casualty

The denigration of intimacy between men and women is just one of the many casualties of the materialistic and reductionist thinking in our culture in general. I know, or at least hope the discussion about contracts was tongue and cheek. Obviously, two people who have any doubts about one another should not be sharing that sacred space together. Casual sex is like casual banking or casual energy use or casual environmental exploitation, where anything goes and usually does. Its destructive and exploitative because all are practiced unconsciously. Our bodies are sacred and precious and we should not being sharing them with those who do not feel the same way. Both genders are equal participants in this unconscious behavior, unfortunately the negative consequences are much more severe and fall predominately on women, but not entirely as many here have vigorously pointed out.

Of course one can always argue, that such a point of view is impractical. The argument can be made that such activities have been going on since the beginning of time and will never change. I would argue that it's just as impractical as solving our other three "E" problems, because they all stem from the same distortion in our thinking. But the heat is being turned up, we are being pushed into a corner, continue to evolve or face exponentially more dire consequences. If we cannot escape our exploit or be exploited level of awareness, all really is for naught.

On "how it went" discussing de-growth

Reflector – thanks for your interest. About 150 people attend the most recent One Valley Prosperity Project meeting. That's a lot for a city of 5,000 (county of 15,000).

The sticking points (as I see them) were similar to what you suggested. I'm sure many of you have seen this in conversations with groups large and small. These sticking points will need to be overcome in my community (and our nation) for us to face the future boldly and build collective resiliency.

First, during a breakout session on "Managing Growth, How we grow and change", I suggested that growth might not continue. I was completely misunderstood by some in the working group and assumed to be anti-growth. I was told "You're just like that guy" who had just stormed out in anger about how growth has spoiled our mountain town. Instead, I was trying to make the point that if families cannot prosper on their current income, they won't be able to prosper in the future [given what's coming], and by focusing on money as the only metric of prosperity, we were in danger of not prospering. We should think outside the box, I suggested, and try to determine what it is that families are spending their money on, and provide those services/commodities (together, as a community) when the money is not there.

As Reflector suggested

– it was a downer, and it scared people. Immediate denial. 2015 saw the highest sales tax on record in our county. The future is bright (until it's not, and let's not think about a dimmer financial future).

– organizers (especially) were looking at the future through the lens of the past. By the time this meeting took place, the organizers and most participants were too invested in the theme of managing growth to even consider de-growth.

– fortunately, there was no personal conflict. Other than the fellow who stormed out, and left us all a bit shell-shocked, my community has a remarkable level of civility and respect for each other. In fact, civility, respect, and diversity were identified among the values we want to preserve and protect.

At the end of the 2.5 hour event, the Project was soliciting people to join one of several local working groups. I didn't sign up at the time (I've got a lot on my plate, and was hesitant to commit), but later, I considered what really matters (i.e., community resiliency) and sent an email to the leaders and talked with one of the lead organizers about joining the Managing Growth working group. (Other choices were Affordable Housing, Public Lands, and Transportation.) The organizer's eyes rolled back in his head when I mentioned peak oil and its implications for de-growth in our remote, predominantly tourism-based economy.

Notes to self:

Keep spreading the word.

Work on my message. Try to be as eloquent and clear as Chris, Charles, Adam, and all the other "mentors" on the PP site.

Keep in mind that the goal is to educate people and help them feel empowered/bold/capable, not to frighten anyone.

Bogus stats?

Description of System: NISVS is a national random-digit–dial telephone survey of the noninstitutionalized English- and Spanish-speaking U.S. population aged ≥18 years. NISVS gathers data on experiences of sexual violence, stalking, and intimate partner violence among adult women and men in the United States by using a dual-frame sampling strategy that includes both landline and cellular telephones. The survey was conducted in 50 states and the District of Columbia; in 2011, the second year of NISVS data collection, 12,727 interviews were completed, and 1,428 interviews were partially completed.

Results: In the United States, an estimated 19.3% of women and 1.7% of men have been raped during their lifetimes; an estimated 1.6% of women reported that they were raped in the 12 months preceding the survey. The case count for men reporting rape in the preceding 12 months was too small to produce a statistically reliable prevalence estimate. An estimated 43.9% of women and 23.4% of men experienced other forms of sexual violence during their lifetimes, including being made to penetrate, sexual coercion, unwanted sexual contact, and noncontact unwanted sexual experiences. The percentages of women and men who experienced these other forms of sexual violence victimization in the 12 months preceding the survey were an estimated 5.5% and 5.1%, respectively.

Advocacy Research

Here is the questionnaire: It might be helpful if you have all the questions and their subheadings randomly administered to you and your loved ones, and see if you are a rapist or a rape victim, and if you agree with the CDC's designation.

Thanks Sam

An interesting and worthwhile addition to this thread. However I think the jist of the thread is more about chest thumping whose statistics are right rather than understanding the complexity, pain and social dynamics of sexual abuse and violence. And as far as statistics go they are all wrong because there is a very large number of victims who never report. Of all the women I know every one as been affected by some kind of sexual violence, perhaps not themselves but a neighbor, a friend, a co-worker, a daughter-in-law, the child next door, their hairdresser and so on. Put 10 women in a room and you will hear 10 intimate stories. It's just not talked about but it's more pervasive than you ever, ever imagine!

Good luck Sam I suspect your rabbit hole will not be of interest to many. Too bad it sheds light on the complexity of the issue.

Thanks Sam

AKGranny, did you hear the part where Cristina Hoff Summers (aka the Factual Feminist) says

Unfortunately, when it comes to research on sexual violence, exaggeration and sensation are not the exception, they are the rule.

Also, did you hear the part where she refers to the CDC's methodology as "defective"? Did you hear the part where she says

With this method, known as advocacy research, you can manufacture a women's crisis.

And if course she goes on to explain that the kind of exaggerations dealt out by the CDC trivializes the fate of the smaller number of females who truly are victims of violence…. (her own words are better than mine, I encourage all readers to watch to video and get all of her nuance).

In case anybody was wondering, I am strongly against rape and all forms of violence and coercion.

No good deed goes unpunished

My son rescued a young person from someone who's pastime was evidently cruising parting for the intoxicated and bringing them back to his off campus room for extra curricular activities. Some time after talking his way into his room and allowing the young woman to leave who was drunk and pleading for help, the person who was upset because his "fun" was spoiled came downstairs and attached my son. Well he choose the wrong person to pick a fight with.

The result was that I had a bunch of legal bills and my son wound up with academic probation for protecting himself (he was at what would be considered a very "liberal" university at the time of this event). The woman who was rescued never came forward out of shame and embarrassment. The guy who caused the trouble, scot-free, no issues for him. My son told me after it all, he would do it again, because it was the right thing to do. I'm right behind him.

Though this is anecdotal evidence, this in my mind more the general tenor of what is happening. If our biggest problem was a bunch of "angry feminists" chasing around innocent guys for having relations with them after a few beers, we would be on other side of "the long emergency". All our sister, daughters, mothers and friends, whether it's 20% or 1% are taking on the brunt of this problem, not the reverse. I am very tempted to give out some pretty hostile and politically incorrect fatherly advice, but perhaps I am a bit sensitive to this, because of this and other stories I could tell. But lets leave it here, apologies ahead of time.

A disconnect

First of all, it is really difficult to objectively measure sensitive information (drug use, sexual activity, etc.) in a population. People are typically reluctant to discuss these issues with friends and family, let alone strangers. The category of people who agree to discuss these issues may differ from people who will not, making generalization of study results to a population difficult. This may also account for low numbers of people who agree to participate in any particular study.

The video stresses the nature of the survey questions biasing the outcome of the CDC work. As every survey designer knows, how you frame the question, and where the question occurs in a survey influences the answer. I do not have access to the Bureau of Justice questionnaire, but this poster explores some of the differences in methodology among surveys: http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/bjs_amrsa_poster.pdf

It is also important to recognize that rape is an evolving definition in our society. For example, during the mid 20th century in the US, the potential for rape in marriage was not recognized. 'Date rape' was not considered 'real rape' until the 1980's. Indeed, the FBI just revised their definition of rape in 2013:

I do no think one survey is right or wrong. I am saying that we do not know exactly as we do not have good methods and tools. What I do know is that rape is extremely under-reported, and that it is a major problem for young people, especially females in this society.

I suggest that teaching young people about the pitfalls associated with sexual activity at least include the necessity for ultra-clear communication, and the potential legal hazards associated with sex during drug or alcohol use.

Thank you Pyranablade I did

Thank you Pyranablade I did hear those quotes and know there will always be someone discounting a problem. Like peak oil, that's not a problem either according to many. Also I appreciate that you and other readers are against violence and coercion. Did you thoroughly read the written questionnaire? It helps to explain the complexity of the situation.

Here is a nugget to add to the mix.

As I indicated previously I live in a state with the highest number of rapes per capita. There was a documentary a few years ago describing the difficulty in investigating and prosecuting cases up here. It seems that in a number of indigenous cultures there was/is no word for rape. So how do you deal with a culture whose 1st language is not English and has no definition for a such an act. It created challenges for law enforcement when investigating such situations. It was almost impossible to accuse someone of something for which there is no definition! Would these investigations be added to the statistics or dismissed? I would bet statistics would not include these numbers? And, remember a large portion of victims never report an assault so those numbers are not included either. So whether these is a crisis or not depends upon ones perspective.

Painful Topics require More Clarity, not Less

Good discussion. Back in the 80's I worked in the Sex Offender unit of a prison psyche facility. I remember rigidly holding myself back, as I listened to a young man manner of factly describe sodomizing an infant, then start piteously weeping as he described his own arrest. I wanted to leap across the table and rip his throat out, but didn't. So Granny, Tall, Tree, "I feel you..".

I was also training in an intense, but unorthodox style of psychotherapy, and remember how a close-knit, like minded group was vitally supportive, but could also become quite the echo chamber.

I think this support/distortion tradeoff is true for any painful topic, Sexual Abuse, DeGrowth, Addiction, Global Climate Change, The Aliens, Money/Currency, Peak Everything. So I applaud the general tone here at PP, and urge us all to politely challenge each other with reality, because , well, It's just …hard to know this stuff.

I really appreciate CM's opening comments to PP, "as the data change, so will my mind ", or words to that effect. A tip of the hat to Mark Cochrane and his Climate Change thread. That's the way to do it. Polite, tough, detailed, data, data.

A lot of smart people on PP, and I particularly appreciate a previous exchange with CM about a military issue. CM was probably correct on the macro (smarter weapons render expensive massive older weapons obsolete), but wrong on the micro, the specific mechanics. This is the kind of reality testing needed. No one can be sharp on everything.

Similarly, a comment by Archdruid about medicine being distorted by money. Amen to that! Any doctor or nurse would say "well, Duh!!" Absolutely correct on the macro. His reasoning? Avoiding alternative/complementary treatment of a severe asthmatic? Wrong on the micro. More likely prudent risk aversion. And I love Archdruid's stuff, BTW. No one can be sharp on everything.

For that reason, I would love some interviews with people with world views slightly off from PP concensus. Amory Lovins and Catherine Austin Fitts come to mind.

Finally, what do I make of the CDC "1 in 5"? I think they do a great disservice to a field that requires more clarity, not less. IMHO, they "mined" the credibility of the CDC in service of their cause. By making a claim that any rational person, and even folks "in the choir" can discount, they make it easier for everyone else to avoid thinking about this particular painful reality.

I believe, the more important and painful the topic, the more careful and honest should you make your alarming announcement. If you don't really know, the best thing to say is "we don't really know, but are really worried". Then when you do know something, maybe people will trust what you say.

Welcome Sam

Thank you for your thoughtful contribution. I too would love to hear Catherine Austin Fitts on a podcast.

I loved the sentence, "we don't really know but are really worried"! It's frustrating when we argue over the statistical numbers which discounts the issue of rape and diminishes the victims. From personal experience I know the numbers are not accurate but don't know what exactly is accurate, but the numbers aren't what matters anyway.

Hope you will post more Sam it's nice to have a few more who bring balance to a subject and your comments are well thought out and you have unique insight.

But are the stats believable?

If I have learned one thing from reading alt sites like this one as well as digging more deeply elsewhere to get information that has decent credibility, it is that I cannot trust much put out by government institutions when it comes to statistics. Economic data is regularly skewed to suit, as are medical trials, as are climate facts, as are just about everything else that is fed to us. When we have major corporations fudging figures and data all in the name of profits, such as Volkswagen, how are we supposed to have any faith in any institutional studies or fact? The IMF is not credible so why would the CDC be any more credible?

There are two things I see in this discussion re rape: a woman trying to make a point about women – me being one of the ones she was referring to – as being absent from so many discussions on this site due to perceived male dominance as well as perceived double standards as to what is and is not acceptable. This has been discussed before and the issue seems to crop up when a hot button issue is being talked about. There are some things that I continue to not be able to understand with regard to the site administration when it comes to strong and emotional viewpoints. For example in the past year or so there seems to have been a lot of racist comments being made by one male member but I rarely if at all have I seen the moderators or the member really hold him accountable. What gives guys? Why is overt racism – which is an emotional expression – by a male member acceptable while the moment a women expresses herself in a similar manner gets shot down and called sanctimonious? Will someone please enlighten me?

The second point is the gender divide that arises when discussions of rape arise. I too work in a field that gives me better than average knowledge of this issue. All I can say is that I do not think we will ever be able to bridge the gulf that exists between the genders re the understanding of rape and rape culture. I think this gulf has in fact widened exponentially as a result of the proliferation and accessibility of porn on the Internet. For many, the lines between fantasy and reality, respect and self-respect have been moved to a whole new field, one that IMHO is moving us further along towards social collapse.

Rape has always been and always will be an act that is used in time of war as a weapon to degrade and anger, to exercise power and control, to dominate. Sadly this has been moving out of the war arena andd into society at large. What else are we to think when we hear people saying they want to hate f*** a woman? And get applauded for it? Or when guys think it is fun to run up to a female reporter on live air and yell out F*** her right in the pus*** as has been seen in the past year? And why is it that we do not seem to have any women yelling in male reporters mics f*** him right up the ass? Why do we gave young men doing shootings because they are not getting their perceived sexual entitlement/allotment?

The above is why there is always going to be a gulf in understanding on sexual harassment and rape. When you are not on the receiving end of the majority of it, you are simply unable to understand how it feels, even if just watching another woman be subjected to it. I know many men are sensitive and empathetic, but clearly there are not enough in this camp, for if there were, we would not be having this discussion…

Agree, lots of sexual assaults unreported

I agree with WestCoastJan's last post, and what I believe is AKGranny's underlying impression, that sexual encounters conducted by force are greatly underreported and may be even "ubiquitous experience" among women.

I have learned that several close women friends have been raped and not reported the incident. The reasons are important.

1. One was involved in an activity and situation at the time of the incident that she did not want to have widely discussed publicly. Reporting a rape essentially involves discussing in public (and later reading about it in the newspaper) an intimate and very distressing event. All your co-workers get to talk through the whole thing around the water cooler.

2. The second was raped by a friend of the family and her children were close friends of the assailants children. She chose to not report the incident so as to not disrupt the world of all the children.

I have heard of others who did not report because they just couldn't handle the stress of a second massive event while still being so overwhelmed the rape itself.

Thanks Sandpuppy! also requesting answers to questions posed...

Thanks for the support Sandpuppy – it is much appreciated – by me and other women!

Happy New Year everyone. I am writing this post with the hope that we can collectively work towards helping PP get back on track in some ways. I am sure of course there are some of you who think it ain't broke and therefore don't fix it, and what they heck is she talking about anyway! But trust me, there are a few things "broke". I want to see this site do well and prosper! Always have, always will. But I also want the site to be a model of respect and acceptance of all contributors, for that is the key ingredient to balanced debates & discussions that are both fruitful and enlightening. And I am assuming that is a goal on this site?!? I do note that Sandpuppy is the only man to respond thus far to my questions in my last post, which were not rhetorical – I want responses gentlemen – ye of hallowed minds and admirable vocabularies – please and thank you. Non responses from those who have opined in this thread will not be getting any brownie points from the Janster!

Admittedly this is now sort of off tangent from the article. I do want to chip in with something that was said by Ken in post #2 that I think may have influenced AKGranny to post something re benefiting from the hardships of others. To put into context, we here in BC have a law that prevents profiteering from emergencies. For example if your store sells generators and the power goes out you are not allowed to jack up the prices beyond a predetermined legislated level so that you do not take advantage of the situation. Now some would read that as BS and want to be able to get whatever the highest bidder will pay, and others would be more community minded and not take excessive profits from an emergency situation. For me this ties in with the whole concept of building community. I do think the guy who ends up charging 10K for a generator is not going to be well loved down the road in his community…

It is obvious to me there is a wealthy cohort in this online community and as per the Chinese saying "crisis = opportunity", it appears that some of you are wanting to/trying to position yourselves to make a killing if/when the SHTF. I can understand that since we in the first world have seen our thinking evolve to make us want to go this route – at least that is how I see it. We are programmed to want financial success. Some of us buy into it more than others. But somehow, and I think this is what AKGranny was trying to convey, it seems like some of you are striving to be the guy with the generators who can sell them for 10K…

If we put this into a larger, perhaps global community building context, does having a financial buy list make us a good global community member? Well I guess it depends what that buy list is, as Adam opined. Somehow though, when I see millions of refugees – from war, from water, from climate and from poor economic conditions all on the move trying to find a new home to find that which I think we all have – waking up warm and cozy with food in the fridge;when I see millions of North Americans without jobs, losing their homes, struggling to feed their families, stuck in circumstances created by BIG MONEY AND CORRUPT BANKERS AND POLITICIANS I personally have a really hard time with the idea that those with the big bucks are positioning themselves to make ever more financial fortune when they are already so wealthy beyond your average person. How about forgetting the markets and helping your fellow man? In this great big melting pot can we not help proactively, and be content with what we have?

Re the rape conversation, clearly the men are uncomfortable with this change in direction of conversation. i know that many of you are husbands, fathers, brothers and uncles and grampas. You should be concerned gentlemen!! Rape culture is real, it is widespread and we still have judges who, to quote one recent Canadian judge who has since been suspended, "why didn't you just close your knees?" You should be scared, for even if you are fine, upstanding gentlemen, there are millions who are not. And you should thank god you live in NA and not India!

The past year or two has seen a number of really remarkable women leave this site because they felt ganged up on and not supported by the site administrators. One was even banned. So much for freedom of speech! I am sure I myself was close to the line at one point as I tried to support one of those women when the site owners felt threatened by what we were saying. Gee, I guess we do have some power after all! But you know, the PP community is all the poorer for the loss of these women and others who do not post due to the whole male dominance thing. I find that the great engaging discussions we had are gone. Other good members are largely absent – in addition to the women Gillbilly and Treemagnet, Bob, James Lemieux to name a few. I miss good discussions where the back and forth is/was fun and engaging.

With the launch of you new book, this is the time to get back on track Chris and Adam. We women want to support resilience and prosperity, and we are well positioned to help you succeed, but not if we are treated like second class citizens. That is so redundant… so its up to you to make your decisions re how you want to administer the site. You can either welcome all and moderate without bias, or you can keep heading on the path you are on. I do hope you will see the light and embrace the former.

I proudly sign my name in the spirit of peace and good will to all my friends here on PP. My life has changed a lot because of my interactions with all of you. I hope that we can find ways to work together to maintain a balanced and oh so important website. Happy 2016!

Jan: Near as I can tell...

…the questions you pose point out that even in our liberal and secular society — which has come a long way and still has a long way to go on many issues — there are entitled Y chromosome carriers running around being brutish and violent and have a misogynist skew to their worldview. Women are objects. Etc.

Setting aside the truth that there are plenty of "good men" out there, if I had a daughter or a sister I would be getting them into martial arts, shooting and all that. No, it's not fair that the women have to go learn how to defend themselves from the bad men. The bad men should change their behavior. But like I said above, even in these 'good" times we get bad action. As times get tougher? The bad acting will get worse, I think.

My Sweet Sweet Lady and I are actively studying a martial art and have asked our Sifu to start adding in lesson material about practical day-to-day situations, including the use of a small (legal to carry) knife called a karambit. We are looking into her carrying a stun-gun and/or pepper spray (or at least having them in her car).

As much as I am active in trying to make the world and our culture a better/safer place for women (I volunteer & teach each week at a women's recovery shelter) I also recognize that it's likely enough going to get more difficult for women and not less so. Then — as several have pointed out in this thread — it's going to get more dangerous for bad men/rapists. Like lose your manparts and/or life.

In my day I have more or less picked a fight with a guy on the street in NYC because he was verbally and physically abusing his girlfriend. Interposed myself. I was pretty scary big in that day, which helped because he was no wisp of a guy. People actually kept trying to get me to butt OUT. I didn't know what I thought I was going to accomplish (humiliate the guy and he'll probably take the woman home and beat her) but I couldn't just walk by the way almost everybody else was. I suspect in this day and age dozens would have their cellphones out and recording and a phalanx of angry NYC women would be backing the up against the nearest wall. So maybe we have made progress. Still a long road ahead.

I'm sorry this is the way it is. There's great good in many men and sadly many others lift themselves by pushing women down. I can't speak to what has gone on here at PP in recent times because I have been largely absent rebuilding my life from scratch (what, again?!). It's my sincere hope some or any of this is useful to you and/or the discussion at large.

Banned?

[quote=westcoastjan]

The past year or two has seen a number of really remarkable women leave this site because they felt ganged up on and not supported by the site administrators. One was even banned. So much for freedom of speech! I am sure I myself was close to the line at one point as I tried to support one of those women when the site owners felt threatened by what we were saying. Gee, I guess we do have some power after all!

response

[quote=westcoastjan]

Thanks for the support Sandpuppy – it is much appreciated – by me and other women!

Happy New Year everyone. I am writing this post with the hope that we can collectively work towards helping PP get back on track in some ways. I am sure of course there are some of you who think it ain't broke and therefore don't fix it, and what they heck is she talking about anyway! But trust me, there are a few things "broke". I want to see this site do well and prosper! Always have, always will. But I also want the site to be a model of respect and acceptance of all contributors, for that is the key ingredient to balanced debates & discussions that are both fruitful and enlightening. And I am assuming that is a goal on this site?!? I do note that Sandpuppy is the only man to respond thus far to my questions in my last post, which were not rhetorical – I want responses gentlemen – ye of hallowed minds and admirable vocabularies – please and thank you. Non responses from those who have opined in this thread will not be getting any brownie points from the Janster!

[/quote]

I can't speak for the culture of the site, it's owners or your perception of it as male dominated other than to say that is a legitimate perspective to air, and you do so eloquently.

If I were to respond to you instead, that your thoughts are "utterly offensive lets not go down this path" than would I not be guilty of discouraging conversation? of censoring you? How would that be a model of respect for all contributors?

This particular conversation regarding rape culture stemmed from a discussion of the validity of an oft stated and disputed statistic and the definitions of rape. Is there a rape culture? Yes. Is rape under reported? again undoubtedly yes. Is it one in 4 or 5? I don't happen to think it is that high based on previously discussed factors. And more to the point, I think that is a legitimate point for discussion or debate. Instead the response was to somehow turn this question into a referendum on "is rape not such a bad thing after all?"

Even though I don't think rape as it is legally and commonsensicaly defined occurs at that frequency This year for Xmass I bought my 16 year old daughter a mace key chain, a self defense cat key ring, and the book and course "when the unthinkable happens a complete guide to womans self defense." Note that this is on top of nine years of martial arts training, where I helped guide her into the top of the National rankings as a competitor.

Part of that was encouraging her and empowering her to see herself as a capable young woman equal to any male, even in physical combat endeavors. In fact she once won the Montana open in the male heavy weight division as a female light weight. More important than the physical stuff was what I tried to impart mentally

Perhaps most importantly what I taught her was not to buy into stereotypes that our culture hands down, to think critically and question and evaluate all assumptions even her own and especially mine.

Therein lies the biggest problem I have with what I perceive as the subtext of your appeal for top down moderation to somehow implicitly balance or equalize a gender bias. To my mind such issues especially contentious and painful issues need to find their strength through their own merit. and that is best served in the unfettered 'market place of ideas.

I recognize that I am oversimplifying your concerns, for the purpose of brevity and may have mischaracterized your intent, (please note, I am not familiar with the issues that you cited regarding previous disputes and people being banned) but I trust that you will be able to correct me.

I am not at liberty to say...

that I will have to leave to site administrators to divulge and/or indicate their reasoning. They have a business to run and I respect that totally. But I also have a healthy respect for freedom of expression. They have a fine line to balance without being censors. I do not envy them!

But I will add that some of us seem to express feelings/thoughts with varying vocabularies and abilities to express ourselves. That in and of itself should not preclude someone from expressing an opinion. Everyone has the ability to influence our thoughts in some manner – if we let them. But if we start to exercise even minor censorship – perhaps because there is too much emotion – then we too start down the slippery slope.

I get something from each and everyone of you. I may not agree with you – even those extolling "his people"! Why? Because I do not live in a vacuum, and neither should you. I grow and evolve because each of you make me think differently on some level and help me to challenge inbred thinking. I hope I make you think too 🙂

Thanks for your responses guys – I hope more chime in! This is worth talking about!

Comments about this thread

Hi Jan. I think I appreciated your comment (#51), although you and I will disagree on some things, it was nice of you to ask us commenters to keep this conversation going. Some things, of course, won't get resolved, but we can identify them and move on from there. And yes, we kind of owe David Collum something like an apology, since much of the thread veered into gender issues. It started with a good and well-received post from (was it Treebeard?)…. but just one thing about his post annoyed me

When statistics say that 20 to 25% of women will be sexually assaulted during their college career, is not that the driving problem

And I responded to that and AKgranny replied to me. By the time I got back online, Mememonkey had defended me in such an appropriate way that I didn't feel I needed to say anything more.

I willingly fork over $300 each year to this site because we discuss things here that I cannot discuss with friends and family. Many of you probably feel the same way. So even though there was more stuff about gender issues that came to my mind recently, I let it go (although I made another comment later on, I chose not to bring up additional gender issues – I knew it could be potentially divisive). Since Jan asked, I will say one thing more for all of us to think about, but first, let me finish my thoughts about our responsibilities to this website.

I use the "ignore user" option and I recommend it for any of us who are "rubbed the wrong way" by any other "online personalities." There is an online personality known as "T2H" on this site whose posts I didn't like at a very early point and so I "ignored" him. Another online personality known as "Arthur" didn't offend me, but none of his first 10 or 12 comments made any sense to me at all, so I figured why waste the time and I "ignored" him too. [Btw, in real life maybe I could be friends with T2H or Arthur, but they aren't in my real life, they are simply online personalities.]

I think Mememonkey is right to question the ability of some kind of imposed gender neutralizer to work without hurting the site. At this same time, I'm grateful to have somebody like Jan on this site because she is contributing to our diversity in an appropriate way – no attacks on the character of those she disagrees with.

So here is my (hopefully) non-divisive observation about gender issues. A quote from I don't know who:

Man's essential weakness is his appearance of strength. Woman's essential strength is her appearance of weakness.

"Survival of the Fittest" or of the most corrupt?

[quote=treebeard]

Both are founded on and the result of a reductionist and materialistic mythology that has enthroned "survival of the fittest" as the singular guiding principal of our "culture". Isn't it after all the main story of our very existence, the very principle that drives evolution. Isn't the idea that is generally propagated that when I am self centered, acting solely for my own benefit, is when I am most productive. And when I am most productive is when I benefit the whole? What a poisonous lie.

[/quote]

While we certainly have a self-centered culture, it's not based on "survival of the fittest" or any other type of individual merit, unless you consider talent at political corruption to be a sign of "fitness". Massive redistribution of wealth from middle class workers to the poor makes it much more difficult for producers to survive. [By producers I mean the workers who actually do things in the physical world, not those who've become expert at financial manipulations.] The whole article was describing how a corrupt Fed is damaging the productive middle in order to support expropriation of assets by the 1% who are buying political power in order to stack the regulatory deck in their own favor. While the well-publicized idea of the corrupt 1% might be that the self-centered are productive, it's like the gangster robbing banks because that's where the money is. Like bank robbers, those who are so self-centered that they'll do almost anything to take things from others who've created value (rather than producing for themselves) can indeed become rich. That doesn't make them "fit" and indeed if the producers stopped making things for them to appropriate, they'd starve pretty quickly.

What we're really seeing here is a culture of spoiled, self-centered takers. The rich see no reason to create things themselves, because they can sustain their lifestyles with financial manipulations. The poor see the middle working harder and harder for less and less and see no reason to make the effort our grandparents did to get into this rigged game, since social safety nets (funded by the dwindling assets of the middle) will keep them from starving. Neither Wall Street nor corrupt Federal regulators grow your food or keep your lights on. Neither do overpaid CEOs of energy companies or agribusiness.

Yes, it is a systemic problem and we should not withhold our outrage until they start to mess with our personal things. However, the problem has nothing to do with fitness and when we parrot that phrase we only support their corrupt view of how an economy works.

Those who tend toward quantity see those who favor quality of offspring as nasty elitist Racists.
In an expansionary environment such as the end of an ice age or the discovery of a new energy source (fossil fuels) the fast breeders have the advantage. Marriage commitment is loose. Young mothers are the rule.

In an adverse environment it takes a lot of commitment to successfully raise offspring. Therefore marriages are stable. Females won’t breed until they have enough bodily resources therefore they breed later.

Either we find another energy source and expand into the le Grange points or we will flip our behavior into K mode (Quality).

r mode behavior will be become the minority view and the philosophy of quantity over quality will be quietly forgotten.

Will K mode breeding be kinder? Absolutely not. However it will certainly clean out the genepool.

Meritocracy

The presumption is that "survival of the fittest" is an equivalent term for a meritocracy, it is not. To unpack that properly would take more time than I have now. I would argue there are a number of unconscious assumptions built into that presumption, and it is those very presumptions that have created the crisis of the three "E"s that were are facing today.

The Origin of species was published just over 156 years ago and contained a series of observations that revolutionized thought at the time. A purely "scientific" view point has its attractions, it curbs mans hubris (we are after all the subject of natural law), but at the same time promises a brighter future through rational thought and self mastery, mastery of our surrounding conditions. There is a dark side there as well though which we just now becoming aware of.

History is a constant series of reversals, where an idea, concept or perspective transforms present awareness, only to become the chains of slavery for future generations as it becomes codified into an ossified belief system. Each generation seems to presume that they are at or near the pinnacle of human evolution and until viewed in the rear view mirror of history.

We are again at one of those great reversals where the linear presumptions of our current greatness are being shattered circular nature of reality. But we are not turning on great wheel, doomed to repeat our past mistakes. Reality is multidimensional, and our path more resembles the spirals of our own DNA. After each cycle, we may appear to have returned to the same place we have done so with a transformed perspective. Transformation always comes from the edge as the center collapses in on itself, what we are experiences is both new and old. Beginnings and ends are always contained together, we are at both.

missouri bashing? seriously?

Why in the world would "you" assume that race issues might be more intense in Missouri? What a load of east coast superiority bias. Missouri has a very diverse population with very few racially charged issues. The last few years have regrettably highlighted underlying issues between people of different backgrounds, neighborhoods, and racial backgrounds. This is an important issue that needs we should all strive to prevent and I will not blame potential victims for crying wolf, like David Collum did with the sexual assualt issue. (Sidebar: Any one ever thought about men/boys keeping it in their pants? Or slut-shaming men as women have been since the beginning of time? Or asking any woman if she has experienced unwanted sexual advances in her life? Not to mention that the alarmingly high rape statistics cover women's entire lives (not just time in college) and include unwanted sex with partners, even husbands? but I digress…. ) Just as causal intimacy on campuses needs a broader conversation, so does racial issues. And there is no reason to believe that Missouri is worse than Connecticut.

Any one ever thought about

We must recognise that young men and adolescents are not girls with certain additional features. They are prefrontally challenged, testosterone soaked idiots. I know. I was one.

This is one example of the fact that no two humans are equal by any measure at all. No amount of foot stamping, huffing and puffing is going to change that .

Our Moral foundations should rest on that fact. Any legal system's first imperative has to to be the dispensation of justice. Therefore the Muslims have a point. There is such a thing as provocative dress and behavior. But let us not over emphasize the issue. There was a time when a woman's ankle was considered provocative.

Over time western men been acclimatised to seeing all a woman's bits. It is getting harder and harder for women to get any reaction at all.

Muslim men on the other hand, are on the other extreme. All they can see of a woman is her eyes, and in Afghanistan even those are veiled.

Plonk them amongst our womenfolk and all hell breaks loose. Surprise, surprise. Who would have thunk?

Environmental Phyto estrogens will of cause emasculate all men. (Correction. All male chordata.)

the ugly blaming phrase rears its face

We must recognise that young men and adolescents are not girls with certain additional features. They are prefrontally challenged, testosterone soaked idiots. I know. I was one.

Therefore the Muslims have a point. There is such a thing as provocative dress and behavior.

O M G I am going to just give up right now. It is beyond hopeless cause trying to get men to understand a women's perspective on sexual assault. I have resisted commenting further on this thread, but since my last post, nearly every day in the news headlines I scan daily there have been countless articles about sexual assault, harassment, abuse and so on, the overwhelmingly vast majority perpetrated by men on women.

But I guess it is we women's fault… it is our fault because of what we do or say or wear, or how we act. It is our fault. We provoke. We cause those male hormones to go bonkers causing men to lose all responsibility for their actions. We cause them to lose their ability to embrace the concept called restraint – you know, that thing which relates to humans ability to reason, and is why we are the so called superior species. But obviously for far too many men the nervous system that transmits the restraint signal from brain to penis is not working. Must be that hormonal prefrontal thingy that Arthur seems to be using as an excuse to justify all the inappropriate behaviours men perpetrate.

In reply to pyranablade on post #57:

Hi Jan. I think I appreciated your comment (#51), although you and I will disagree on some things, it was nice of you to ask us commentors to keep this conversation going."

You "think" you appreciated my comment? Sorry but that is a little too wishy washy. We will definitely be disagreeing on many things because if you want to stand by disbelief of the stats re rape culture, well that is your prerogative, but from my perspective, the stats understate true reality. I believe it is far greater than what the stats show. I know most men will just not be able to agree with that. My theory is that many men – the good guys who know what restraint is – just cannot even imagine the depths of how much damage others of their gender cause.

And also, it was disappointing that despite my call for more men to comment few did. The disinterest on a topic that is so relevant to so many women is disheartening.

Here is something to think about. I have been sexually abused. Of three sisters, two of us were abused. My sister who was also abused is a totally messed up person. Of my seven closest friends, three have been abused. My cousin was abused and committed suicide last year. I strongly suspect more cousins were abused, but they are not talking. So let's see, for this run of the mill average woman, who is like so many other run of the mill average women in society, out of the circle mentioned above 6 out of 11 have been abused – more than 50%. I have no doubt whatsoever that if I asked for a show of hands of abused women in the office it too would be above 50%. So if one were to extrapolate this to the general population, which I truly do not think is unreasonable, it sort of doubles the quoted stats that you guys are disputing and finding so hard to come to terms with. The level of abuse and harassment is, and remains sickening. The psychological and emotional damage is debilitating. The memories never go away, ever. You cannot undo abuse.

I see no hope whatsoever for finding a happy consensus on this subject. I do not think that men are capable of understanding unless they have been abused themselves. And certainly not when many continue to blame the victims and make it our fault while totally absolving themselves for any lack of restraint. I do have one friend who experienced horrific abuse as a child who uses a rather vulgar saying to try to get her men friends to understand sexual abuse: "try to imagine an unwanted dick up your ass!" Apologies for the vulgarity, but I have to agree with the sentiment. It is the only way to adequately convey the absolute horror of being violated.

Thanks Jan

I have commented that no two humans are of equal value. Making the best of a bad situation, my morally considered opinion is that we should use a large swath of humanity for spare parts.

After all, a thing is defined by it's function, not it's form. Just because it is bi-pedal does not entitle it to call itself my equal.

Having said that I realize that a human is not an object, it is a process. There was a time that I was was a young man too.

Were you ever a young man? How then can you judge their state of being? You are judging young men with a woman's yardstick. The correct people to raise young men are older men.

You womenfolk's efforts to raise boys have been an abject failure. Where are the Real Men defending their womenfolk in Sweden? Triapsing about in tu-tus to the delight of feminists. You want Real Men to defend your right to choose the father of your children? Give the boys to us. If not, you will have to make your own arrangements.

Try making cartoons about acceptable behavior. That is what is being tried in Europe. I kid you not. Cartoons against an invasion. I'm sure they would have terrified Genghis Khan and sent him scurrying back to Mongolia./ sarc

Imbalance

Horror, yes. And let's not forget the major practical fact that sex causes babies. The risks and consequences of "going all the way" are hugely disproportionate between men and women.

Modern birth control methods can change the odds of conception, but they don't negate the fundamental imbalance.

The sanest context for sexual activity is within a committed relationship that has the support of the community and where the man is committed to sticking around to help raise whatever children he sires.

Any man who seeks sexual contact without that commitment is not a lover, he is a user.

Humble, instead of wishy-washy

Hi Jan. I think I appreciated your comment (#51), although you and I will disagree on some things, it was nice of you to ask us commentors to keep this conversation going."

You "think" you appreciated my comment? Sorry but that is a little too wishy washy

I read your long comment (#51) putting the best construction on it. It sounded like you were communicating in good faith. But I also knew that you were outraged, or at least a little upset about my earlier comments on this thread.

Here's the thing: when you communicate online there often aren't any non-verbals and those non-verbals are what people really rely on when interpreting the comments of others. I read your comment (#51) thinking it sounded like you were a really nice and well-meaning person that just happened to disagree with me on some points. If so, then I really did appreciate your comment.

Maybe I should make it clearer to all on this thread: Gender issues is a divisive topic. This is not a gender issues blog. You have my sympathies, Jan, for being a victim of abuse. Is it time for all of us to leave it there (at least for now?). I think so. If not, however, I have more material to contribute.

Hi Michael

See post #49 paragraph two.

What I would specifically like to know is why AKgranny got ganged up on for a comment that some found offensive and called her sanctimonious garnering about 15 thumbs up when a post like this https://www.peakprosperity.com/comment/184419#comment-184419 gets a pass with no one calling Arthur on it for racism? I alerted the moderators re this comment but no one responded to me and I am unaware of any action taken. I would imagine if he had said Martenson the Jew then it might have hit the mark…

What Hugh is alluding to here is the conversation where former member, and my friend, Joyce got blasted and ganged up on by many. When I tried to support her I was take to task by the site administrators. That kerfuffle had a big impact on a lot of members, and resulted in some of us backing off of or leaving the site altogether.

If one were to read all the comments on the Forbidden Words thread, it is rife with racism and discriminatory comments, with Arthur being the main contributor in that regard. I am not sure if it was this thread or not but I called him on one of his posts and told him to "give it a rest" which I seem to recall garnered about 15 thumbs up. Recently Arthur sent me a PM which said "so what is wrong with racism?" I did not and will not respond to him, especially given that I am deaf and experience all kinds of discriminatory behaviours on a regular basis. My only intolerance is of people who are intolerant.

So, once again, it is not my intent to hurt this site by bringing up old battles. But I sincerely want to know why no one is holding Arthur accountable, why people are quick to gang up on some women posters for things that I perceive as being pretty minor in comparison to some of the stuff Arthur has been spewing out? Why are their double standards and different bars of acceptability for different posters?

This site used to pretty good at self policing. Heck I used to hold people accountable sometimes. I value so many of you – smart people, brilliant thinkers and writers from whom I have learned much. I also have learned how to debate better, trying to attack the point and not the person. This whole racism thing is a different ball of wax though. I certainly believe in freedom of speech and anyone's right to express themselves. If I do not like it I can just not read it, or block them. But there have been too many instances that I think are over the line and have gone unchecked, and that is not sitting well with me.

I do not know where this leaves us other than saying I think that each of us has a responsibility to conduct ourselves with integrity. There is no integrity in racism or any other discriminatory behaviours. We here are a close community. Some people need to remember that…

OK Robbie

Hey Jan --

I've been absent for some time so I can only speak to this particular thread.

I don't see Arthur as looking to *excuse* heinous behavior, but he is offering up reasons that illuminate *why* young men are aggressive sh!theads. And IMO he's not off the mark: young men's prefrontal cortexes are not done getting wired up (meaning they lack the ability to forecast the outcomes of their actions) and they are basically suffering from testosterone poisoning. Which makes you an insane version of your real self.

I was a mild-mannered "good kid". A nerd. A churched-up nerd who sang in the choir and so forth. Then I hit puberty. I was still the "good kid"…but inside I was a slobbering dingbat of lust and desire and impulse and urge. It was like some outside force had hijacked "nice kid" me.

There is NO EXCUSE for sexual harassment, or rape. And I believe you when you say 50% is a better number for the occurrence of such in our culture (as compared to 20%).

Whatever anybody feels about Arthur, I don't think his recent post in this thread is so off base. Young men, torn from their customary social context, exposed to a liberated culture….will act badly.

Like I said, there's no EXCUSING it. But we must EXPECT it. Plan for it. PROTECT those that will be exposed to the idiot rapacious urge that is the unguided young male.

I'm probably stepping out into dangerous territory here, and I normally avoid such. Life is too short to spend it battling stuff out on the internet (I have like three other full-time jobs I'm busy with). But I wanted to speak to this because I believe none of what we hash out here at PP matters if men and women don't rise together in the creation of the new world (to follow the slow messy death of the current one)…

Shame (the elephant we don't talk about)

It seems like a long time ago that this thread started and I will endeavor to explain the point I am trying to make without a lot of emotion. At the beginning of the thread I was the only woman participating in a thread about rape. Then one post started out “Granny” First I fault you for………. A list of my perceived character flaws followed and I was criticized and faulted. You see this is called Public Shaming. Now the expert on shaming, Dr. Brene Brown teaches that shaming has two narratives, the 1st says “you are not worthy” and the 2nd narrative says “who the hell do you think you are?” The message to me was I am not worthy to post, my posts are wrong and inconsequential and I am not welcome. This was followed up with sixteen (16) thumbs up. Not in support of me but rather the person who was shaming me. This could be translated into 16 middle fingers saying we don’t want you here either. You see what shaming does is to cut the ties of relationships and the message that I was not welcome was received loud and clear. This site is designed with an “IGNORE” button and it should be used when someone who posts offends you. Calling names is not okay! That’s not sanctimonious, go to any kindergarten classroom and you will quickly find out that hitting, calling names and bullying are not okay. So let me be clear, I paid for my membership just like you and ganging up on me to drive me off the site is……… not very nice.

Being ever more articulate than I and a good friend, Jan contributed to the thread and tried to add balance and perspective. She also suggested that others have made racist comments but were not targeted like I was. Valid observations though not welcomed it seems. Now I don’t believe that anyone acted with intentional malice or cruelty in this thread. Anger perhaps. Rather I realize my posts are imperfect, clumsy, and sometimes ill-thought out, low-and-behold, – it appears so are other peoples. Golly Gee Whiz, I am not the only imperfect person to post on this site! I am not making accusations here only describing a situation from my perspective so no need for angry and hostile rebuttals.

Here is my point. Shame is pervasive; many a political career has been ruined due to shaming. It leads to drinking, drugs and suicide and tragedies like Columbine. Shame is a tool used with expert precision to hijack a narrative, shut people up, drive them away, establish blame and gain and keep power. It’s learned, it’s often a habit and people use shame without realizing the consequences or even have an awareness of their action. Shame is the elephant in the room and no one talks about it but everyone is affected by it. And Robbie, this is for you. As the three “E”’s deteriorate in our country shaming in all of its forms and consequences will grow. People will feel shame for not being able to provide for their families. Ever so many people will not understand exactly why their world is changing but will feel shame and heap piles and piles of it on those they love. As Dr. Brown teaches us shame destroys relationships the ties that connect us to other people and our own self worth. Dr. Brown says put shame in a Petri dish and feed it with silence, secrecy and judgment and it will grow. But, if you bathe shame with empathy it cannot survive. My sincere hope is that if this subject helps even one person then my post and perspective will have made a difference. See what happens, try and give Granny a royal ass chewing and I turn it into a discussion on the detriments of shame. Didn't see that coming did you?

And so my friends I am not being a moral arbiter here I am sharing a perspective that not one of you saw. So instead of being comfortable with the group think that tends to be the norm here I would suggest that people like myself and Jan who see the world so very differently just might have a valuable and pertinent insight now and then. My self-worth is not determined by people who don’t know me, have never met me and are so easily willing to hurt me. My husband says 17 to 1 and the odds are still in my favor, ha-ha you can see where I get my emotional cup filled. So you have not succeeded in driving me away. But at the same time I tend to believe in the sage advice that goes like this:

“Do not give what is holy to dogs, nor cast your pearls before swine or they will trample them under their feet and turn and tear you to pieces.” A warning given to me by someone I trust.

Now I leave you with a quote, complements of Dr. Brown who so aptly reminds us of which critics we should listen to. I see myself in the quote, how about you?

“It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong person stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man or woman who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood, who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes up short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory or defeat. Theodore Roosevelt

The boot is on the other foot Granny

It is not me who is on trial here. It is Cultural Marxism.

Cultural Marxists accuse anyone who disagrees with them bad or mad. They do not debate big ideas. They name and shame. Just like their cousins Real Marxists. Cultural Marxists are Evil who like to dress up as Angels. And boy, are they quick to name and shame.

Someone is trying to shame ME for being a Racist. And no, Racism is not hate speech. Racism is pride in the achievements of one's Race.

It is a pity that Jan cannot hear for she would gain insight into the roots and objectives of Cultural Marxism.

Anyway, thank you for giving me the opportunity to sink my fangs into Cultural Marxism.

Do you keep chickens, Jan?

This website is NOT very good at self policing. I really have to disagree with you there. As a result, I stay away from discussions like "Forbidden symbols"; I come for the things I find useful, and just avoid some of the really bad stuff Arthur posts.

And I DO agree that it is bad, and it is racist. I think that some of what he has been through has damaged him, just as what you and your family's women have been through, has damaged you all. Yes, you too. I don't know if you're aware of it or not, but I don't think one can go through that without damage. I too have taken damage, but with other incidents. I will speak of those some time, but while I travel through a dark tunnel, it's hard for me to speak of that tunnel.

But the behavior I see in my mother-in-law's chicken coop is much like the behavior I see here, including pecking orders. There is a reason that some of the chickens lack feathers over broad swaths of their body.

I, too, have been ganged up on here, at least on the truther 9-11 discussion: Although I actually think it likely our government was involved, I am not a Truther; my engineer's training makes me see normal structural failures in what happened there. My simply stating that opinion, and the engineering principles that make me think that, brought out the worst in people. I just left it alone, once I had stated my point. As an engineer, I have nothing more to add, once I give the scientific/engineering/mathematical principles. But in taking my position, I had people excoriating me as a terrible engineer — HOW COULD THEY KNOW SUCH A THING? Truth is, they can't, any more than I could call you a terrible (doctor? actress? mother? I have no idea what you are, but even if I did, how could I know your job performance from across the web?)

So I really have no answer to how the policing goes on here. It is Chris' website, and he can do what he wants with it. If I find some aspects useful, that is very good, and I may come around. Some areas, I stay away from. I try to judge people with charity — including Arthur — and find what value I can, while still speaking against the evil and the racism.

Look back, and you will see I have done so. If I do not keep on with it, well… I expect people to take me seriously the first time I speak — and I fire my best shots first. If they do not, I do not expect them to take me seriously the 2543rd time I speak, when I have but drivel left to add.

Jan, we are all subject to groupthink. I think Chris would like to avoid it, but we do it nonetheless. And when one of us disagrees with the group on one topic or another, the group disciplines the lone wolf.

It shouldn't be, and it will have bad consequences for the group.

But it is.

Regarding your personal experiences, I am sorry that they happened. I don't have any answers… it's really bad.

—- Now, an aside:

On the subject of dress, can I ask you what you think about this article? I am not Jewish, but I am fascinated with their theology and logic. So I read the chabad posts many weeks.

Silence is the great enabler

Hi all, and once again with apologies for the high-jacking of David Collum's article, but we are here now so we might as well try to finish this off.

Arthur, I am not trying to paint you as a racist – you have done that all by yourself in the last year or so. I am merely pointing out the obvious and asking why it has gone unchecked. For the record, I like you. Historically your posts have been at times fun, quirky and at times smacking of genius, so much so that half the time I never could figure out what the heck you were talking about. But something must have happened to change things for you and I interpret some of your posts as lashing out.

I would like to give you some perspective on why I have chosen to engage everyone on both the racism and sexual assault side of this conversation. Part of my day job is advocating for the rights of the disabled in the workplace. In spite of our Charter of Rights and Constitutions there remains considerable discrimination, un-employment and under-employment for this cohort. Much of the discrimination is inadvertent, a result of people not knowing any better. It has been rare for me to experience intentional discrimination, but it has happened, and it was devastating. There remains one considerable barrier to making progress in this area: the silence of the majority, and unwillingness of people to call out others when they see discrimination, however inadvertent it may be, happening.

I have long harboured much anger about how "my people" – the disabled community – have been treated., much in the same way you are passionate about what has happened to "your people". But in trying to advocate for our rights I have had to learn one lesson the hard way, many times over: one needs to explain their anger, not express it. I have pissed off many people along the way with my anger. It has taken maturity and experience to allow me to become more effective at being an advocate. I am finally in a place where I feel like I can indeed make a difference.

Racism, bigotry, sexual assault and sexual harrassment are enabled by silence. When no one speaks up to say anything they are enabling the behaviour to continue. When no one holds people accountable for bad behaviours society suffers for it, and at times, pays an awful price – something we are seeing all the time in the media these days with violent acts for whatever reason becoming more the norm.

When you make a statement like "Kunstler the Jew" you are making a racist statement. I take offence and exception to things like that, whether it comes from you or anyone else. I am not Jewish, or of any other organized religion. What I am is a human being who has one too many scars from experiencing discrimination and who is not willing to let things slide any longer.

Sager and Michael, thanks for your great comments. I can see that you and some other men like Sand Puppy are trying really hard to be empathetic and understanding to we women's point of view re sexual assault. Your support is appreciated. Here is the thing though: I can easily understand that puberty age young men have great difficulty controlling their urges with not yet fully developed brains. I can live with that. But this only covers one segment of the issue. What about all the other more mature men? The priests, the hockey or other sport coaches, the boy & girl scout leaders, teachers, and multitude of other predators. What about those in positions of power, the Bill Cosby's, the politicians, the business men – who abuse by sexual power games and harassment using work rewards to coerce or threats to punish? What about all the funny uncles and grandpa's who like to play doctor? What about the doctors themselves? I could go on… it is IMHO both endemic and epidemic. It is a result of a breakdown in society where there are not enough families like Sager's, who saw fit to over see him and help guide him to adulthood. Where is the parental & familial oversight, the community oversight?

It is not there because staying silent is easier. Doing nothing is easier. Saying something might cause problems we do not want to have to deal with. Silence is everywhere. It has enabled a corrupt banking system for which we are all paying the price. It has enabled a corrupt political system, economic system, health care system and educational system. It has enabled a society that is unwilling to hold people accountable. It has enabled those who engage in racist, bigoted and discriminatory behaviours to do what they do without consequences.

I have spoken up because my emotional and psychological scars will no longer allow me to stay silent. I will not sit on the sidelines and be an enabler of bad behaviours. On the contrary, I am working hard to eradicate them. The more people who decide not to be enablers the more chance we have of making progress. I will never be so naive as to think that we can totally get rid of discrimination and racism. There will always be those who no matter what we say or do they will not change. For these people, I will let legislation and the justice system take care of them – providing the are not being sheltered by a wall of silence.

Arthur, I am offering an olive branch and hope that you see this a friends way of saying what you have been writing is not acceptable to me. I hope that you can see that for what it is worth.

Some thoughts...

Many thoughts here, I too am uneasy how some discussions have been starting to turn (is it me or has the 'vibe' changed in the last 6 months on PP?). The respect and acceptance for 'differing' viewpoints seems to have reduced, emotions seem to take over. We seem at times to fall into calling things black or white, while life is always in shades of grey, and these shades depend from person to person. We're all different, with different experiences, insights and (hidden) luggage. I have not followed the entire communication closely, but I'm sorry that AKGranny feels attacked/ ganged upon, I think there should be a respect for others viewpoints whether we accept these or not. If we don't agree, let's discuss in a positive and constructive way, not exclude or attack (indirectly). While we are different we seem to have common views and starting points, so let's build on these.

AKGranny, I want to hear from you! I want to hear from anyone who brings depth to the discussion (I'm not interested in 'soundbites' that fill other online fora). Challenge my viewpoints, I'm here to learn, not to have my views confirmed. I like to think that we at PP are some form of community, and community is also about listening to other viewpoints, and accepting that they may be valid (I'm not talking about the monster of political correctness, but of listening to what the person has to say and trying to see from their perspective). We can agree to disagree, but let's do so with respect. And even though I don't agree with some of the things Arthur brings forward, or the way it is brought forward, I want to hear from Arthur too. I have had countless insights from Arthurs posts too in the past, and I share (though probably less extreme) some of his worries. To build on that, could it be that one of Arthurs points is encompassed in this piece on RT https://www.rt.com/op-edge/329241-europes-tragedy-merkel-immigration/? I think a 'strong' society is defined by a strong culture, and in the West we seem to have lost this 'culture' to some form of individualism, everyone is the same, only I count, I can pay it so 'I'm worth it' mentality. We seem to have lost our bearings, and I think that the West is at a cultural cross-road. I too believe that the multi-culturalist experiment has derailed. I'm proud of the cultural heritage of Europe. There are many issues in traditional European culture, but so are there in all other cultures. It is part of the system. I'm afraid that multi-culturalism will just maintain many of the problematic issues of the blend of the traditional cultures, and that we will lose the good parts of the individual cultures that make up the multi-cultural society… The challenge now is how to turn this predicament (that is just building further) into something that will be manageable and positive…

Jan

It is you who are trying to silence me.

You have not, because you cannot, tell me what is wrong with having great pride in the accomplishments in the achievements of one's Race

Who built the Suez Canal? Who gets you from point A to point B in absolute comfort? Who brings water to your tap? Who will defend you from rapists? Who makes the lights come on? Do not destroy the very culture that brings you these gifts.

And that is exactly what the empirical evidence shows. Get rid of whitey and the country goes to hell in a hand basket. Go to Zimbabwe, breath the air, drink the water and feel the hunger. Look that dying child in the eyes and acknowledge your complicity.

Dialog

Here is a thought. None of us has the "right" to not be offended. By the same token we, each of us, have the right to be offended and to express that offense. It is only through dialog that we see the world through other people's eyes and open our minds to alternative view points. Sometimes this journey takes us to ugly places, unfortunately, that's life.

I, too, reject silence

Jan, For reasons of righteousness, I too reject silence, even when it costs me dearly, and I know it will.

I was working at Skanska SouthEast/Bayshore Concrete, when a QC supervisor was making comments across the radio “It’s hard to find good white help”. He also chased out a level three black QC person. He then hired an untrained QC person, trained him past all his black employees, and made him QC manager above them. After additional abuse, one of the black QC people asked me how to file a complaint. I showed him the 800 ethics number, but pointed out that we ALL were taking abuse there. I really hoped he wouldn’t, because of what I foresaw. He did, and the supervisor was told to stay home two days while they investigated. The supervisor then told the manager in my presence, “tell me you fired them {the black employees). The next day the QC manager dutifully came up with a list of ex-post-facto nominal offenses, with termination papers.

The plant manager told him he couldn’t do that. But at that point, I was the only one who had the whole story; being unable to let an innocent be dragged off to their death (firing) , I felt I had to volunteer testimony of what happened. I did, and the supervisor was terminated. Our vice president and HR person then told me, ” You did the right thing” in front of the lawyer. Knowing the doublespeak that was common there, I replied: “I believe I did; I will see in the next few months whether YOU believe I did”.

Within a month the black employee complainant was fired for an action he had previously been praised for by the plant manager: knocking the bulkheads jff the piles to get his measurements. Also, all the hourly main office employees except me were let go and replaced with salaried personnel, and orders came through that hourly employees were not to be in the main office any more; I was moved out to an out building.

Then the pressure on me went up… eventually, I was ordered to put a subordinate in a water truck that I AND he correctly believed to be without brakes. When I asked if the brakes had been fixed, I was told — across the radio — that I had no right to ask that question, that the employee could decline to do the job if he felt it was unsafe.

I was sick that day, and with the safety problems — there were many more — I couldn’t sleep. The next day I called in sick and used the day to write up a ten page safety/ethics complaint against the plant manager. He got wind of it, and rushed across the water to the main plant to have me fired. The company investigated, then waited for three months until — coincidentally ? — the OSHA statute of limitations had expired, and then determined that nothing had happened and the firing was proper.

My uncle told me that a single individual isn’t going to change a company culture, and it was probably best to leave.

I got another job, but quit after three weeks, moved back to my parents’ house, and dug large rocks out of the garden, and cried. After that, I got another job. That was 2011.

Recently, the company closed the plant.

That’s ONE story of many.

Why do I name the company? Because the silence has to stop.

Even if it means they’re going to hit you again.

I’ll tell you another one: I have an enormous rate of holes in my tires, and tires that are destroyed. One of the triggers is when things get so bad that I can’tpray for anything but “Come Lord Jesus”. I prayed it again today. Again today, driving out of church I discovered another tack in my tire, right near the sidewall.

Something REALLY hates that prayer. And therefore I want to pray it, EVEN if I’m going to again be socked in the face for it. I’m hard-headed that way.

A Deserved Insult

Yoxa, your obtuseness has disturbed my tranquility.

But there IS a problem with spewing misinformation and hate-filled innuendo about other groups.

Am I supposed to give a free pass to somebody because they claim victim status? Are we to hand out free passes like lollies on Halloween, while real victims of prejudice crawl quietly off into the streets? My noble Race will do that, idiots that they are.

I on the other hand, am burdened by no false virtues, having been shielded from this Marxist pap by the last glimmering light of the British Empire.

As the video shows, the end result of Cultural Marxism is a society of lesser beings knowing that they can escape the natural consequences of their actions by claiming victim status. It demands that we pluck out our eyes to shield us from Reality itself.

Cultural Marxism deserves all the putrid viscera that I pour over it. Clearly note that I am attacking an Idea, not a person. If you want to defend Cultural Marxism, be my guest.

Arthur Robey wrote:Amuse

"In "Tiger! Tiger!", Mowgli is adopted by Messua and her husband and learns human ways. He also learns that the villagers have heard of the lame tiger, which has a price on its head but believe it is lame because it is the reincarnation of a money-lender who was injured in a riot."

Arthur Robey wrote:It is not

[quote=Arthur Robey]

It is not me who is on trial here. It is Cultural Marxism.

Cultural Marxists accuse anyone who disagrees with them bad or mad. They do not debate big ideas. They name and shame. Just like their cousins Real Marxists. Cultural Marxists are Evil who like to dress up as Angels. And boy, are they quick to name and shame.

Someone is trying to shame ME for being a Racist. And no, Racism is not hate speech. Racism is pride in the achievements of one's Race.

It is a pity that Jan cannot hear for she would gain insight into the roots and objectives of Cultural Marxism.

Anyway, thank you for giving me the opportunity to sink my fangs into Cultural Marxism.

In college I tried to take literature classes to complement my math study but had to drop repeated classes after determining the classes were not about the author's intentions but some re-engineered imagining for narrow ends. It has to to be much worse now, and it appears to be so based on my questioning of contemporary college students.

Ah ha, yea, right. Something called "race"

Am I misunderstanding is someone actually trying to legitimize bigotry?

"the [superstitious] belief that all members of each race possess characteristics or abilities specific to that race, especially so as to distinguish it as inferior or superiorto another race or races."

Mr Collum's Revenge Potential

American society and culture is a world of illusions. The population born and raised in America has from early childhood been force fed a narrative of bullshit. Mr Collum thinks he knows who he is like everyone else in America, but a society where everyone believes obvious lies, ignores obvious truths and facts, and the exploration of reality is a minefield of cognitive dissonance to be avoided, is a culture of lost people. I gave a short synopsis of The Milgram Experiment to a woman in her late sixties, retired, a widow that has her deceased husbands pension, owns her house, and is in every way typical of todays baby boomers. She was appalled that people had voluntarily administered what they and everyone knows are potentially lethal shocks of electricity. She adamantly professed that she would never do such a thing, and was in fact incapable of such acts. That the experiment was conducted all over the world and in different environments outside the prestigious Yale University, that the results were similar everywhere and showed there was little variation in the 65% of people that completed the original experiment, and that not one person in the original experiment stopped before reaching about the 300 volt level, were facts that she could not acknowledge. The fact that she utterly refused to accept facts for which the implications would by necessity either include her, or for her to assume the position that she was extraordinarily exceptional, is virtually proof in of itself that she was no different than the test subjects that believed the lies of the authority figure telling them he was responsible, and the person with a heart condition that was screaming wouldn't suffer any long term damage. Pointing out that irony, would have been as useless, so I didn't. The point I'm making to Mr Collum, is that he thinks he knows how he would react to being the victim of tyranny, but that knowledge is only gained from having been tested. There is a reason that what use to be called the mafia, biker gangs, the Bloods and Crypts and a host of other violent gangs with members that revel in the violence of gang life, never whack police, prosecutors, or judges, though in places like California, they have been filling its prisons with their members for years. Terrorism is a function of the State. Violence directed at the State by direct targeting of its functionaries is virtually unheard of. Regardless of the injustices suffered by people from the State, very few people can mount a serious challenge, and far fewer still can sustain it for any length of time, and virtually no one ever gets the satisfaction of justice being served at the end. America has been a growing police state for decades as the explosion during the Regan Administration in its prison population attests to. Mr Martenson's observation that things seem to have gotten really bad after 9/11 is only true for those who refused, and still refuse to accept responsibility for saying nothing and doing nothing, and thinking nothing of the segment of the American population that an army of police were victimizing, or worse supporting it. The ground work for immoral preemptive war was laid right here in America when the citizenry accepted the morally untenable position of forcing the values dictated by the status quo on to a minority in the population that were claimed by decree, a cancer growing on society that had to be cut out. Everyone knows it is not their place to force their will on other people, so the last refuge for supporting the drug war always ends by having to protect children and nobody dare challenge that, but I will, because I must. To actively support the injustice of blaming some other, them over there, for the behavior of children that parents alone are responsible for, to subject children to the violence of the state, the violence of gangs, make children in to criminals, make parents the enemy of children that need help, to destroy the families of others in order for parents to prevent the possibility of their own failure by abdicating their responsibilities, is an act of selfish depraved cowardice by people that have destroyed the civil rights that now nobody has. The police state that surrounds us all now is there for a reason, the same reason the police have been militarized, the same reason the military has developed protocols and training programs on how to deploy US military forces here in America, control a federalized national guard, and set up shop in local police stations and headquarters, and the same reason the NSA is spying on, and profiling everyone, composing lists. The time for Mr Collum to fight back, like everyone else, was when they could. People that are only now seeing the police brutality and criminality of the system that has plagued minorities, the poor and those who refused to conform, lack the eyes to see the true nature of the beast poised to devour them. The systemic corruption that the abandonment of reality has fostered has consequences that can not be contained in the abstract, or restricted to some place over there. Unsustainable is not an abstract concept, nor is it to be ignored if your life and most of the population in America depend on what can not be sustained. What is going on in the middle east, and all the trouble everywhere that America is causing around the world is an effort to control and/or steal what it's parasitic economy can't buy. Consumer economy is "New Speak" for parasitic economy. The reason Europe supports the American war machine is because of its key countries being members of NATO, they all share same corrupt banking system, and aside from Germany none of them produce the goods that would justify the energy resources required to sustain their current population and governments. If America fails to neutralize Russia as a threat for its seizing control of the oil reserves it now covets, the oil will be used by those countries that produce natural resources, and tangible products and services like China that is also on an unsustainable course . Countries like America that can not export enough value to sustain its physical and economic infrastructure will collapse. England is an island death trap if America and NATO fail, and its zest for committing war crimes and it population being the most surveilled in the history of the world reflects that reality. The economic system of the west that miraculously manages to stay afloat, has been and is managed by hook or crook, murder and mayhem, what ever it takes to keep it afloat, and anything goes, including most of us if that's what it takes. The people that run the empire are not stupid or crazy, they are desperate psychopaths. Anyone that doesn't think so, try to explain how Predator Drones evolved, what they could be used for aside from using them against people unable to defend themselves from slow flying aircraft, but most importantly, explain how killing what Obama and war criminals claim to be evil doers, bad guys, terrorists, Taliban and collateral damage in occupied territories, isn't mass murder when the only known truth for who these victims are, is that they are all civilians. I guess people would rather play in the stock market, than see the beast that threatens them. "It is the nature of the human﻿ species to reject what is true but unpleasant, and to embrace what is obviously false but comforting. “ – H.L. Mencken

Quote: Am I misunderstanding

"the [superstitious] belief that all members of each race possess characteristics or abilities specific to that race, especially so as to distinguish it as inferior or superior to another race or races." [/quote]

The point of my dictionary quote is to show that Arthur's self-exculpatory redefinition of the word "racism" is very different from how the word is commonly defined.

shamed

OK. I'm shamed into saying something. I haven't made a comment in years, but I hate for Jan and Granny to think think they are the only ladies around. Sounds to me like Chris and David got caught up in their conversation and lost track of their audience.

I agree that rape is under-reported. You would not believe how many ladies have secrets that they have kept for years for one of many different reasons–fear of criticism, fear of the police, fear of repercussions, or the need to shield or protect some one else. That does not mean 20 percent of men are rapists, but rather a few do a lot of damage. A lot of that is at home.

I am so glad Sager is back. Sand Puppy made some sensitive remarks. Arthur made a good point.

I had skipped this thread because I don't have the money to do any serious investment. Still, since I've been perusing the information here I have learned to garden, built a pantry, got out of debt, and have taken three climate change classes!

Daniel,eback in 1992 -- Waco, Ruby Ridge, Donald P Scott...

Daniel,eback in 1992 — Waco, Ruby Ridge, Donald P Scott… I was there, asking my congressman, Bob Goodlatte, to wrist slap the FBI. I know, it doesn’t sound like I was very effective in fighting the growth of a police state, but really… what can one person do?
I did what I could, and got him to initiate sponsorship of a bill that passed unanimously, with at least almost unanimous cosponsorship.

And the FBI/ATF murders stopped for a time.

Bob Goodlatte also seemed to get the chairmanship of the House Judiciary committee, out of that.

I did what I could.

You complain that we didn’t stop it when it was possible. Maybe it was possible to stop it, maybe it wasn’t.

Correct prediction by Dave Collum

Dave Collum predicted this so rightly "20 year old somethings as refugees will wreak havoc" and was he spot on. What happened in Cologne on NYE was proof enough. Things for the future are becoming unmanageable and West's meddling is making it worse.