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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 06 CAIRO 12383
PARIS FOR ROSENBLATT, LONDON FOR MILLIKAN
DEPT ALSO FOR INR/B
E.O. 12356:DECL: OADR
TAGS: PINRKISLPINSKPRPEG
SUBJECT: THE GREAT SHAYKHS: THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD AND
THE RADICAL FRINGE
¶1. CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT.
¶2. POLITICAL ISLAM IN EGYPT IS GENERALLY DIVIDED INTO
ESTABLISHMENT ISLAM REPRESENTED BY THE RELATIVELY
MODERATE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD (MB), AND THE RADICAL FRINGE
REPRESENTED BY OMAR ABDURRAHMAN AND COMPANY. THESE
GROUPS COMPETE FOR RECRUITS, STRUGGLE FOR CONTROL OF THE
MOSQUES AND DEMONSTRATE DIFFERENT ATTITUDES TOWARD THE
GOVERNMENT. THE DISTINCTIONS AMONG THEM, HOWEVER, ARE
NOT ALWAYS VERY TIDY. STARTING FROM THE ISLAMIC
PRINCIPLES OF "SHURA" (CONSULTATION) AND "TASALUH"
(RECONCILIATION OF DIFFERENCES AMONG BELIEVERS), THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE DIALOGUE, DEBATE, AND EFFORT AT
RAPPROCHEMENT EVEN AMONG GROUPS THAT HAVE ENGAGED IN
BLOODY CLASHES WITH EACH OTHER. THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD
SEEMS TO HAVE CHARGED DEPUTY SUPREME GUIDE MUSTAFA
MASHHOUR WITH CONDUCTING LIAISON WITH THE EGYPTIAN AND
THE REGIONAL RADICAL FRINGE.
-
------------------------------------------
PUSHING THE BROTHERHOOD TOWARD RADICALISM?
------------------------------------------
¶3. FOR YEARS THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD WAS AN UNDERGROUND
ORGANIZATION PRONE TO VIOLENCE. IN THEORY, THE BROTHERS
RENOUNCED VIOLENCE IN 1987 AND DECIDED TO PLAY BY THE
RULES OF THE FORMAL EGYPTIAN POLITICAL GAME. THIS
DECISION APPEARS NOT TO HAVE BEEN UNANIMOUS. SOME OF
THE MORE MILITANT BROTHERS, MUSTAFA MASHHOUR FOREMOST
AMONG THEM, RETAIN AT LEAST A THEORETICAL ATTACHMENT TO
THE USE OF VIOLENCE FOR THE SAKE OF ISLAM.
¶4. INDEED, MANY ESTABLISHMENT ISLAMIC AND SECULAR
FIGURES INSIST THAT THE BROTHERHOOD'S DECISION TO PLAY
THE POLITICAL GAME WAS A MERE PLOY -- THAT THE BROTHERS
ARE STILL INVOLVED IN ISLAMIC VIOLENCE OR AT LEAST
KINDLE THE OPTION TO USE FORCE. MUSTAFA MASHHOUR, THEY
CLAIM, IS THE HEAD OF THE "AL-JIHAZ AL-SIRRI" ("THE
SECRET ORGAN") OF THE GROUP, AND AS SUCH, EITHER DIRECTS
OR COOPERATES IN THE ORCHESTRATION OF VIOLENT ACTS.
SOME SPECULATE THAT MASHHOUR LENDS PEOPLE AND ASSETS
(SAFE HOUSES FOR EXAMPLE) TO ISLAMIC TERRORISTS. OTHERS
SAY HIS STRATEGY IS TO SEEK CONTROL OF THE RADICAL
GROUPS BY SENDING HIS FOLLOWERS TO JOIN AND EVENTUALLY
RISE TO POSITIONS OF INFLUENCE OR LEADERSHIP WITHIN THE
GROUPS.
¶5. MASHHOUR ASPIRES TO BE THE SUPREME GUIDE OF THE
MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD SUCCEEDING THE FEEBLE OCTOGENARIAN
HAMED ABU AL-NASR. TO DO SO, HE WILL HAVE TO BEAT BACK
THE CHALLENGE OF MAMOUN AL-HODEIBI, THE HEAD OF THE
BROTHERHOOD'S PARLIAMENTARY DELEGATION IN THE 1987-90
PEOPLE'S ASSEMBLY. AL-HODEIBI, REPUTEDLY THE CHIEF
ADVOCATE OF PARTICIPATION IN EGYPT'S POLITICAL GAME,
EARNED THE GRUDGING RESPECT OF NON-ISLAMISTS FOR HIS
WORK IN THE ASSEMBLY: THE DEPUTIES HE SHEPHERDED PROVED
THE MOST COHESIVE AND HARDWORKING OF THE OPPOSITION
GROUPINGS. AS LONG AS PARTICIPATION REMAINS THE
BROTHERHOOD'S POLICY, AL-HODEIBI HAS AN ADVANTAGE IN THE
SUCCESSION STRUGGLE. THE CYNICS -- AND IT IS HARD TO BE
TOO CYNICAL IN EGYPTIAN POLITICS -- SAY THAT MASHHOUR IS
TRYING HARD TO DIMINISH AL-HODEIBI'S ADVANTAGE BY
PUSHING THE ORGANIZATION TOWARD CONFRONTATION WITH THE
GOVERNMENT AND A CONCOMITANT RADICALIZATION. THUS, IN
THE LAST FEW MONTHS MASHHOUR HAS ATTENDED RADICAL
ISLAMIC CONFERENCES IN PAKISTAN AND KHARTOUM, HAS
SPURNED HIS OLD FRIENDS IN SAUDI ARABIA, HAS URGED
WORLDWIDE JIHAD WITH THE LIKES OF SUDAN'S AL-TURABI AND
TUNISIA'S AL-GHANNOUSHI, AND HAS FORMULATED THE
BROTHERHOOD'S STATEMENT ON PALESTINE, THE RADICAL
CONTENTS AND TONE OF WHICH ARE FAR FROM THE MB'S
DOMESTIC FOCUS AND MODERATE RHETORIC OF THE RECENT PAST.
¶6. THE BATTLE FOR LEADERSHIP WILL BE JOINED SOON. THE
GOVERNMENT IS AWARE OF THE POLITICAL DYNAMIC AT WORK IN
THE BROTHERHOOD, AND WILL NO DOUBT TRY TO INFLUENCE THE
GROUP'S DECISION. A VICTORY BY AL-HODEIBI WOULD
PROBABLY PRODUCE A POLICY MUCH LIKE THAT OF THE LAST
FOUR YEARS: RHETORICAL COOPERATION WITH OTHER
OPPOSITION ELEMENTS AND PATIENCE IN THE GRADUAL
ISLAMIZATION OF EGYPT'S PUBLIC LIFE. A VICTORY BY
MASHHOUR WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE A MUCH MORE STRIDENT TONE,
AND PERHAPS EVEN A DECISION TO OPT OUT OF THE FORMAL
POLITICAL GAME. SUCH A MOVE WOULD SET IN MOTION A
RADICAL DYNAMIC WHICH REASONABLY COULD BE EXPECTED TO
END IN VIOLENCE, GIVING THE AUTHORITIES AN EXCUSE TO
CRACK DOWN.
--------------------------------------
SPENT FORCES: SALAMA, KISHK, AL-BADRI
--------------------------------------
¶7. DURING THE LATE SEVENTIES AND EARLY EIGHTIES, HAFEZ
SALAMA FROM HIS MOSQUES IN SUEZ AND CAIRO AND ABDEL
HAMID KISHK FROM HIS IN THE QUBBA QUARTER OF CAIRO, WERE
TWO OF THE MOST INCENDIARY CRITICS OF THE GOVERNMENT,
PARTICULARLY ON CAMP DAVID AND EGYPT'S SPECIAL
RELATIONSHIP WITH THE UNITED STATES. BOTH STRESSED THE
NEED TO "STRUGGLE" -- USUALLY UNDERSTOOD AS A CODE WORD
FOR THE USE OF VIOLENCE -- FOR THE SAKE OF ISLAM.
SALAMA HAD EXTRA CREDIBILITY BECAUSE OF HIS RECORD AS A
HERO IN THE WARS AGAINST ISRAEL. KISHK'S CHARISMA WAS
MAGNIFIED THROUGH THE SALE OF TAPES OF HIS SERMONS. AT
THE TIME, MANY THOUGHT THAT IF EGYPT WAS TO HAVE AN
ISLAMIC REVOLUTION, THESE TWO WOULD BE MAJOR FORCES
BEHIND AND BENEFICIARIES OF SUCH A DEVELOPMENT.
¶8. BOTH ARE STILL ACTIVE, BUT THEIR INFLUENCE HAS
WANED. OTHER THAN BLEATING A FEW PERFUNCTORY REMARKS
ABOUT THE "SHAME" OF MUSLIM FIGHTING MUSLIM AND SALAMA'S
REMARK ABOUT THE "SHAME" OF CALLING IN WESTERN
ASSISTANCE, BOTH WERE LARGELY SILENT DURING THE LONG
MONTHS OF THE GULF CRISIS. SECURITY SURVEILLANCE
UNDOUBTEDLY HELPS LIMIT THEIR ACTIVITIES, BUT AGE AND
ILL HEALTH -- TO WHICH THEIR RADICAL COLLEAGUE SALAH ABU
ISMAIL SURRENDERED LAST YEAR -- ARE ALSO PART OF THE
EQUATION. BOTH ARE IN THEIR SIXTIES WITH THE
PREDICTABLE GERIATRIC PLAINTS SETTING IN. KISHK SEEMS
TO BE FADING GRACEFULLY: HIS NEWEST TAPES ARE DEVOID OF
POLITICAL CONTENT AND TEND TO WAX METAPHYSICAL ABOUT THE
MYSTERIES OF THE VIRGIN BIRTH OF THE PROPHET JESUS AND
THE PROPHET MOHAMMED'S ASCENT TO HEAVEN.
¶9. BY CONTRAST, HAFEZ SALAMA IS NOT GOING GENTLY INTO
THE GOOD NIGHT. INDEED, MOST REFERENCES TO SALAMA HAVE
HIM ACCUSING THE GOVERNMENT OF TRYING TO DO AWAY WITH
HIM POLITICALLY OR PHYSICALLY. HE HAS ACCUSED THE
INTERIOR MINISTRY OF FORCING THE EDUCATION MINISTRY TO
PLAY BUREAUCRATIC GAMES WITH THE LICENSING OF THE
PRIVATE SCHOOLS ASSOCIATED WITH HIS HEDAYA MOSQUE
COMPLEX IN SUEZ. AT ONE POINT HE ACCUSED STATE SECURITY
OF ATTEMPTED ASSASSINATION BY FORCING HIS CAR OFF THE
REMOTE SUEZ-CAIRO DESERT ROAD. OTHER ISLAMIC
FUNDAMENTALISTS SUGGEST THAT SALAMA'S MORE SERIOUS
ACCUSATIONS ARE TO GENERATE PUBLIC ATTENTION AND
SYMPATHY TO REVIVE AN ISLAMIC CAREER IN DECLINE.
¶10. ANOTHER ISLAMIC FIGURE WHO HAS RUN OUT OF POLITICAL
STEAM IS SHAYKH YOUSSEF AL-BADRI, FORMERLY A MEMBER OF
THE PEOPLE'S ASSEMBLY. SHAYKH YOUSSEF NEVER ACHIEVED
THE FOLLOWING OR REPUTATION OF KISHK OR SALAMA, BUT, AS
HIS ONGOING EFFORTS TO OBTAIN A LICENSE FOR A NEW
ISLAMIC POLITICAL PARTY ATTEST, HE ASPIRES TO ISLAMIC
GREATNESS. CLEARLY, HOWEVER, AL-BADRI'S FORTUNES HAVE
WANED. A SO-CALLED "WORLD PRESS CONFERENCE" ON THE GULF
CRISIS ADVERTISED BY AL-BADRI LAST AUGUST DREW PERHAPS
TWO HUNDRED LISTLESS ATTENDEES INCLUDING TWO JOURNALISTS
AND ONE AMERICAN DIPLOMAT. AL-BADRI'S COUP DE GRACE
CAME IN LAST FALL'S PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS WHEN, IN THE
MOST FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS IN EGYPTIAN HISTORY, THE
SHAYKH SUFFERED AN EMBARRASSING DEFEAT.
-------------------------------------
ABDEL RASHID SAQR: A HARSH NEW VOICE
-------------------------------------
¶11. ABDEL RASHID SAQR, THE FORMER IMAM OF THE SALAH
AL-DIN MOSQUE IN CAIRO'S MANIAL NEIGHBORHOOD, IS A NEW
AND STRIDENT VOICE FOR ISLAMIC MILITANCY. THE MAY 1990
MARCH EMANATING FROM HIS MOSQUE WAS THE LAST SIGNIFICANT
ISLAMIC STREET ACTION IN CAIRO. A MARK OF SAQR'S
POLITICAL CLEVERNESS WAS HIS MELDING OF THE ISSUES OF
PROTEST: HE USED FRIDAY PRAYERS TO URGE THE
CONGREGATION TO TAKE TO THE STREETS IN PROTEST OF BOTH
THE INTERIOR MINISTRY'S ARREST POLICY AND A ROUND OF
PRICE INCREASES ON GOVERNMENT-SUPPLIED COMMODITIES.
¶12. THE DEMONSTRATION COST SAQR HIS MOSQUE AS THE AWQAF
MINISTRY TRANSFERRED HIM TO A "HALL-WALKER" SLOT IN THE
MINISTRY ITSELF, BUT OVER THE INTERVENING MONTHS THE
SHAYKH HAS SHOWN A TENDENCY TO BE VOCALLY RADICAL ON A
WIDE RANGE OF ISSUES. KNOWING A JUICY ISSUE WHEN HE
SEES IT, SAQR IMMEDIATELY DENOUNCED THE INVASION OF
KUWAIT BUT WENT ON AT LENGTH AGAINST THE DISPARITIES IN
ARAB WEALTH THAT HAD "LED" TO THE DISASTER. IN OTHER
STATEMENTS, SAQR HAS DECLARED THAT JERUSALEM WILL NEVER
BE RECOVERED BY NEGOTIATIONS, AND THAT STRUGGLE BETWEEN
MUSLIMS AND JEWS IS A POSTULATE OF LIFE FOR THE
FAITHFUL. SAQR ALSO LIKES TO RE-PLAY ONE OF THE
FAVORITE CONSPIRACY THEORIES OF IGNORANT MUSLIMS: E.G.,
THAT THE MUSLIM WORLD IS BESET BY CHRISTIAN AND
"CHRISTIANIZING" SCHEMES. PLAYING ON THE LOCAL TENDENCY
TO MISTRUST ANY FIGURE OF AUTHORITY, SAQR LIKES TO
EXPOUND ON THE THEME THAT AL-AZHAR -- WHICH SHOULD BE
THE SYMBOL OF ISLAMIC PURITY AND EGYPT'S LEADERSHIP OF
WORLD.ISLAM -- IS RIFE WITH CORRUPTION AND BRIBERY.
¶13. SAQR SEEMS TO BE SOMETHING OF A LONER. THERE ARE
RUMORS THAT HE WAS ONCE A MUSLIM BROTHER, BUT ON AT
LEAST A FEW OCCASIONS HE REPORTEDLY HAS LAMBASTED THE
MB'S WORK WITHIN THE SYSTEM. HE DENOUNCES THE INTERIOR
MINISTRY'S CAMPAIGN AGAINST THE RADICAL FRINGE. BUT HIS
GOAL SEEMS MORE DENUNCIATION OF THE GOE THAN SUPPORT FOR
THE "AL-GAMA'A AL-ISLAMIYYA" (IG).
-----------------------------------
ADEL HUSSEIN: A LINK TO SECULARISM
-----------------------------------
¶14. ADEL HUSSEIN, EDITOR-IN-CHIEF OF THE SOCIALIST
LABOR PARTY'S WEEKLY NEWSPAPER "AL-SHAAB," DIFFERS FROM
OTHER PERSONALITIES DISCUSSED IN THIS MESSAGE IN ONE
FUNDAMENTAL RESPECT: HE ARGUABLY IS NOT EVEN AN
ISLAMIST. ADEL SPENT LONG YEARS AS A SELF-DESCRIBED
"COMMUNIST," UNDERGROUND IN NASSER'S AND SADAT'S
PRISONS, AND AS AN OVERT HARD-LEFT JOURNALIST. ADEL
INSISTS THAT HIS EXPOSURE TO THE MUSLIM BROTHERS IN
PRISON LED HIM TO THE LIGHT OF ISLAM, BUT MOST "REAL"
ISLAMISTS AND LEFTISTS SLIP HIM IN THE SAME POLITICAL
PIGEONHOLE AS SLP LEADER IBRAHIM SHUKRI: I.E., A
POLITICIAN WHO SAW THE INTELLECTUAL EXHAUSTION OF THE
FITIES AND SIXTIES AND DECIDED TO RIDE THE ISLAMIC WAVE
LAPPING AT EGYPT'S POLITICAL SHORES IN THE LATE
SEVENTIES. NEVERTHELESS, HE MORE THAN ANY OTHER
EGYPTIAN PUBLICLY LINKS ISLAM TO CALLS FOR RADICAL
ACTION.
¶15. ADEL HUSSEIN HAS NO ISLAMIC FOLLOWING PER SE. HE
IS NOT A SHAYKH, HAS NO FORMAL RELIGIOUS TRAINING, GIVES
SEMINARS AT SLP HEADQUARTERS RATHER THAN SERMONS AT
FRIDAY PRAYERS, AND -- PROOF POSITIVE OF HIS SECULARISM
TO ISLAMISTS -- HAS AN UNVEILED WIFE. ADEL IS
POLITICALLY SIGNIFICANT IN ISLAMIC TERMS, HOWEVER,
BECAUSE HE IS ONE OF THE VERY FEW WHO SEEK TO UNIFY THE
ANTI-GOVERNMENT EFFORTS OF DISPARATE OPPOSITION ELEMENTS
BY USING THE LOWEST COMMON DENOMINATOR OF ISLAMIC
RHETORIC. HE ALSO SEES THAT POLITICAL ISLAM HAS IGNORED
THE ECONOMIC ISSUES ON WHICH THE GOVERNMENT IS THE MOST
VULNERABLE AND HAS TRIED IN "AL-SHAAB" TO SENSITIZE
ISLAMISTS TO THEIR OVERSIGHT. WHILE CLEVER ENOUGH TO
KNOW THAT THE ODDS AGAINST IT ARE GREAT, WE SUSPECT
ADEL'S IDEAL SCENARIO WOULD HAVE ISLAMIC AND SECULAR
ELEMENTS SUCCESSFULLY LINKED AGAINST THE GOVERNMENT,
WITH EMPTY ISLAMIC RHETORIC MASKING THE ENACTMENT OF A
HARD-LEFT SOCIAL AGENDA. IN OLD-LINE COMMUNIST STYLE,
AN INTELLECTUAL/POLITICAL ELITE OF PEOPLE LIKE ADEL
WOULD THEN GUIDE THE MASSES ALONG THE PROPER PATH.
------------------------------------------
OMAR ABDURRAHMAN: GODFATHER OF THE FRINGE
------------------------------------------
¶16. FOR OVER A DECADE, DR. OMAR ABDURRAHMAN HAS SERVED
AS THE SPIRITUAL AND, PERHAPS OCCASIONALLY, THE
OPERATIONAL LEADER OF "AL-GAMA'A AL-ISLAMIYYA," A
RELATIVELY COHESIVE GROUPING ON THE ISLAMIC FRINGE
UNITED BY THE PRINCIPLE THAT FORCE SHOULD BE USED TO
USHER IN THE ISLAMIC STATE. RAISED IN ACCORDANCE WITH
AN OLD ISLAMIC TRADITION THAT BLIND BOYS BE TRAINED TO
RECITE THE QURAN TO ASSURE THEM A LIVELIHOOD, OMAR
ABDURRAHMAN HAS BEEN IN AN ALMOST STRICTLY ISLAMIC
MILIEU ALL HIS LIFE. IN 1965, HE GRADUATED FROM
AL-AZHAR, WHERE HE APPARENTLY IMBIBED DEEPLY OF THE
THOUGHT OF MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD RADICAL SAYYED QUTB, WHO
NASSER EXECUTED THE SAME YEAR ON CHARGES OF ATTEMPTING
TO OVERTHROW THE GOVERNMENT.
¶17. WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY PURSUING HIGHER DEGREES FROM
AL-AZHAR, ABDURRAHMAN TAUGHT AT AL-AZHAR INSTITUTE IN
ASSIUT. HIS RESIDENCE IN THE CITY ROUGHLY CORRESPONDED
TO SADAT'S DRIVE TO BOLSTER ISLAMIC FUNDAMENTALISTS ON
EGYPT'S CAMPUSES TO WEAKEN THE NASSERISTS. WHETHER OR
NOT LOCAL AUTHORITIES WITTINGLY USED ABDURRAHMAN, HE
TURNED OUT TO BE ONE OF THE MOST SUCCESSFUL INSTRUMENTS
OF THE ISLAMIZATION POLICY, PROVIDING GUIDANCE TO MANY
OF THE YOUNG MEN WHO HELPED TRANSFORM THE FORMER COPTIC
BASTION OF ASSIUT INTO AN ACKNOWLEDGED CENTER OF RADICAL
ISLAM. THE MOST FAMOUS "FATWA" (RELIGIOUS JUDGMENT)
RENDERED BY ABDURRAHMAN WAS TO THE ASSASSINS OF
PRESIDENT SADAT: I.E., IT IS ISLAMICALLY PROPER TO
ASSASSINATE AN INFIDEL OR APOSTATE RULER. THIS FATWA
EARNED ABDURRAHMAN THE DISTINCTION OF BEING THE
PRINCIPAL DEFENDANT IN THE SO-CALLED JIHAD TRIALS
CONNECTED WITH THE CONSPIRACY TO MURDER SADAT.
ABDURRAHMAN WAS ACQUITTED IN 1984, HOWEVER, BECAUSE THE
EVIDENCE WAS UNCLEAR ON WHETHER HE HAD DECLARED THAT
SADAT OR, MORE THEORETICALLY, ANY INFIDEL OR APOSTATE
RULER COULD BE KILLED.
¶18. FOLLOWING HIS ACQUITTAL, ABDURRAHMAN LIVED FOR A
WHILE IN SAUDI ARABIA, BUT RETURNED IN EARLY 1986 TO THE
PROVINCE OF AL-FAYYOUM. SINCE THEN "AL-GAMA'A
AL-ISLAMIYYA" (IG), THE GROUP OF WHICH HE IS THE
SPIRITUAL LEADER, HAS INSPIRED DOZENS OF INCIDENTS OF
VIOLENCE AGAINST THE GOVERNMENT, COPTS, LESS ZEALOUS
MUSLIMS, AND IN AT LEAST ONE INSTANCE WESTERNERS. LESS
CLEAR IS HIS DEGREE OF OPERATIONAL INVOLVEMENT IN THE
GROUP'S ACTIONS. IN AL-FAYYOUM IN APRIL 1989, IT SEEMS
CLEAR THAT, DESPITE A SUBSEQUENT ACQUITTAL ON
EVIDENTIARY GROUNDS, ABDURRAHMAN DIRECTLY URGED HIS
CONGREGATION TO GET OUT AND BATTLE THE SECURITY FORCES
IN THE STREETS. WE HAVE ALSO HEARD THAT THE SPRING 1990
BOUT OF SECTARIAN VIOLENCE WAS A STRATEGY CONCOCTED BY
ABDURRAHMAN. AT THE SAME TIME, ONE SCHOOL OF OBSERVERS
OF THE RADICAL FRINGE BELIEVES THAT OTHER LEADERS IN THE
IG -- TALAAT FUAD QASSEM, RECENTLY RECAPTURED AL-MAHGOUB
ASSASSIN SAFWAT ABDEL GHANI, OR PERHAPS ABBOUD AL-ZUMOR
-- DEVELOP PLANS WHICH DR. OMAR MAY BLESS BEFORE OR
AFTER THE ACT. WE HAVE NOT SEEN ABDURRAHMAN
DISASSOCIATE HIMSELF FROM ANY INCIDENT OF SELF-STYLED
ISLAMIC VIOLENCE.
¶19. UNTIL RECENTLY, ABDURRAHMAN HAS BEEN IN
SELF-IMPOSED EXILE IN THE GREATER NEW YORK AREA. HE IS
NOW BELIEVED TO BE IN JEDDAH. HIS ABSENCE APPEARS TO
HAVE CHANGED HIM AND, LESS CLEARLY, CHANGED THE DYNAMIC
AT WORK IN THE IG. SOME HAVE IT THAT ABDURRAHMAN HAS
GONE FROM CONSIDERING HIMSELF THE SYMBOL OF ISLAMIC
RESISTANCE IN EGYPT TO FANCYING HIMSELF ONE OF THE
LEADERS OF THE WORLD ISLAMIC MOVEMENT. AS SUCH,
ABDURRAHMAN, WHILE STILL EXCORIATING THE MUBARAK REGIME,
HAS EXPANDED HIS RADICAL MESSAGE TO DECLARE THAT ALL
ARAB AND ISLAMIC REGIMES ARE ROTTEN AND MUST BE
OVERTHROWN BY FORCE. DURING HIS ABSENCE, HOWEVER, HIS
GRIP ON THE IG SEEMS TO HAVE LOOSENED PERHAPS BECAUSE
OTHER FIGURES HAVE SOUGHT TO EXPAND THEIR REPUTATIONS
AND POWER.
¶20. THERE ARE RUMORS THAT ABDURRAHMAN IS COMING HOME.
IF HE DOES RETURN, THE SAME GOVERNMENT WHICH LET HIM
LEAVE EGYPT EVEN WHEN STATE SECURITY CHARGES WERE
OUTSTANDING AGAINST HIM WILL HAVE TO DECIDE WHETHER TO
DETAIN HIM. IF HE RETURNS AND IS NOT DETAINED, HE WILL
STICK TO HIS MOSQUE IN AL-FAYYOUM, RENDER ADVICE TO HIS
ACOLYTES, VIOLENCE WILL BE DONE IN HIS GROUP'S NAME, AND
THE AUTHORITIES WILL WATCH CAREFULLY AND SOMETIMES
ARREST THE PERPETRATORS. WHETHER AS SPIRITUAL OR
OPERATIONAL LEADER, HOWEVER, THIS 53-YEAR-OLD DIABETIC
WILL REMAIN A MAJOR THORN IN THE SIDE OF THE EGYPTIAN
GOVERNMENT UNTIL ECLIPSED BY ANOTHER RADICAL OR BY POOR
HEALTH.
----------------------------------------
ABBOUD AL-ZUMOR: LEADING FROM HIS CELL?
----------------------------------------
¶21. THE PLOT TO KILL SADAT AND INCITE INSURRECTION IN
ASSIUT IN THE WAKE OF THE ASSASSINATION MOST LIKELY OWES
ITS SUCCESS TO THE PLANNING AND ORGANIZATIONAL SKILLS OF
ABBOUD AL-ZUMOR, A YOUNG MAJOR IN MILITARY
INTELLIGENCE. IN 1979 OR 1980, ABBOUD AND HIS COUSIN
TAREQ BECAME ASSOCIATES -- PERHAPS FOLLOWERS -- OF ABD
AL-SALAAM FARAG, WHO TERMED HIS RADICAL SPLINTER GROUP
"AL-JIHAD" (AFTER AN EARLIER ALEXANDRIA-BASED
ORGANIZATION OF THE SAME NAME, HEADED BY ONE ALI IBRAHIM
SALAMA; WHEN THE ALEX-BASED GROUP WAS SMASHED BY THE
SECURITY AUTHORITIES, FARAG MOVED TO CAIRO AND STARTED
HIS GROUP). EVEN THOUGH HE REPORTEDLY DISAGREED WITH
THE TIMING OF THE EVENT, ABBOUD USED HIS RECRUITING AND
ORGANIZATIONAL SKILLS -- WORKING ON THE FAMILIAR
EGYPTIAN BASIS OF KINSHIP TIES AND PERSONAL FRIENDSHIP
-- TO DEVELOP THE STRATEGY CULMINATING IN SADAT'S
MURDER. THE NUMER-TWO DEFENDANT IN THE SADAT TRIALS,
ABBOUD WAS SENTENCED TO LIFE IMPRISONMENT AT HARD LABOR
IN 1984.
¶22. PARTICULARLY OVER THE LAST TWO YEARS, THERE HAVE
BEEN REPORTS THAT AL-ZUMOR IS PLANNING AND/OR DIRECTING
ACTS OF ISLAMIC VIOLENCE FROM HIS CELL AT CAIRO'S
AL-TORAH PRISON. ON TWO OCCASIONS, HIS WIFE HAS BEEN
CAUGHT SMUGGLING RADICAL LITERATURE TO HIM WHICH
AUTHORITIES BELIEVE WAS FOR HIS CLEARANCE BEFORE
DISTRIBUTION. RADICAL ISLAMIC ATTORNEY MONTASSER
AL-ZAYYAT ALSO REPORTEDLY ACTS AS MESSENGER BETWEEN
AL-ZUMOR AND HIS ADMIRERS ON THE OUTSIDE. MOREOVER, IN
EARLY 1991 A SEARCH OF AL-ZUMOR'S CELL REVEALED A LOOSE
PAVING STONE UNDER WHICH HIS JAILERS FOUND HANDWRITTEN
NOTES WHICH APPARENTLY WERE TO BE TRANSFORMED INTO AN
ANTI-REGIME PAMPHLET ON THE OUTSIDE. THERE HAVE BEEN AT
LEAST TWO HAGIOGRAPHIES OF HIM BASED ON LENGTHY
INTERVIEWS IN PRISON. RECENTLY, WE HAVE NOTICED THAT
AL-ZUMOR, SOMETIMES PURPORTING TO SPEAK FOR THE "JIHAD"
AND SOMETIMES FOR "AL-GAMA'A AL-ISLAMIYYA," HAS SENT
CONDOLENCE MESSAGES AND CONGRATULATIONS TO ISLAMIC
FIGURES AND SUPPORTERS THROUGHOUT THE COUNTRY. THE
DEGREE TO WHICH AL-ZUMOR ACTUALLY IS SEEKING TO DIRECT
RADICAL ACTIVITIES FROM PRISON IS DIFFICULT TO ASSESS.
WHAT IS CLEAR IS THAT HE IS TRYING TO RAISE HIS PROFILE.
¶23. SOME OBSERVERS RELATE THE UPTICK IN AL-ZUMOR'S
PUBLICITY TO ABDURRAHMAN'S ABSENCE. ONE SCHOOL OF
THOUGHT HAS IT THAT AL-ZUMOR IS ABDURRAHMAN'S DISCIPLE,
AND THAT IN THE SHAYKH'S ABSENCE ABBOUD IS TRYING TO
HOLD THE IG TOGETHER. AN ALTERNATIVE ARGUMENT IS THAT
THE TWO ARE AT LOGGERHEADS, OR AT LEAST ARE SOMETIMES
RIVALS. THE LATTER IS GROUNDED IN THE EVENTS OF THE
SADAT TRIALS. THE TWO COOPERATED SMOOTHLY DURING THE
TIME LEADING UP TO THE KILLING, BUT AT THE TRIAL GAVE
CONFLICTING TESTIMONY ABOUT THE DETAILS OF ABDURRAHMAN'S
"FATWA." AL-ZUMOR, SO GOES THE STORY, TOLD HIS FELLOW
CONVICTS THAT THE GREAT DR. OMAR CHICKENED OUT, THAT HE
STOOD UP FOR ISLAMIC PRINCIPLE ONLY WHEN IT WAS
CONVENIENT.
¶24. DESPITE HIS INCARCERATION, ABBOUD AL-ZUMOR HAS
SEVERAL ADVANTAGES OVER ABDURRAHMAN. SHOULD
CIRCUMSTANCES DEVELOP SUCH THAT THE TWO BECAME REAL
RIVALS, AL-ZUMOR SHOULD HAVE THE UPPER HAND. HE IS
YOUNG (FORTY-TWO) AND ROBUST. ABDURRAHMAN IS SO
CORPULENT AND UNHEALTHY THAT FRIENDS AND ENEMIES ALIKE
AT ONE POINT FEARED HE WOULD DIE IN PRISON. AL-ZUMOR'S
MILITARY BACKGROUND IMBUED HIM WITH STRONG
ORGANIZATIONAL SKILLS AND PERSONAL DISCIPLINE. WHILE
ABDURRAHMAN IS THE VOICE OF BLIND, VIOLENT ISLAMIC RAGE,
AL-ZUMOR IS PATIENT AND METHODICAL, BUT EQUALLY
DEDICATED TO AN ISLAMIC STATE. A FREED ABBOUD AL-ZUMOR
WOULD POSE A SERIOUS CHALLENGE TO ABDURRAHMAN'S STATUS
AS LEADER OF THE ISLAMIC RADICAL FRINGE.
¶25. COMMENT: WHILE THE ISLAMIC LEADERS IDENTIFIED
ABOVE JOCKEY FOR POSITION, THEY ARE UNLIKELY TO POSE A
SERIOUS THREAT TO THE GOVERNMENT. IF THEY BEGIN TO
COOPERATE EFFECTIVELY, OR ONE OF THEM SUCCESSFULLY
HARNESSES PUBLIC DISCONTENT, THE GOVERNMENT WILL HAVE TO
CRACK DOWN.
EGAN