The Newest Trends in Terror

About the Author

Peter BrookesSenior Fellow, National Security AffairsDouglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign and National Security Policy

The good news is that al Qaeda's in bad shape; the bad news is
that the terrorist threat is evolving. If we don't adapt, the tide
could turn back.

Director of National Intelligence Michael Hayden last week told
The Washington Post that al Qaeda movements in Iraq and Saudi
Arabia were essentially defeated and pushed back on their heels
elsewhere, including Pakistan.

Some doubt that take on Pakistan, especially with Osama bin
Laden and Ayman al Zawahiri still on the loose. Yet the other
anti-terror gains seem undeniable.

But the bad guys could bounce back. Consider some
trends that worry US planners.

First, al Qaeda's Internet propaganda machine is working
overtime to spread its extremist message, looking for recruits and
funding and pushing terrorist acts to overcome its setbacks on the
ground in places like Iraq.

Terror groups prize the Web, releasing a torrent of products -
from print manifestos to on-line terror encyclopedias to videos -
for digestion by their supporters around the world.

Al Qaeda's online mouthpiece is a media-production entity called
as-Sahab ("the clouds"). Using that and other outlets to push the
party line of violence and hate, the terror groups seek to win
support from sympathetic audiences and to project an image of power
and prestige.

Indeed, Zawahiri wrote: "We are in a battle, and more than half
of this battle is taking place in the battlefield of the media . .
. a race for the hearts and minds of our people."

This isn't amateurish stuff. These outlets are feverishly
improving their quality - and achieving ever-more-impressive
message conformity, a key to propaganda warfare.

They're targeting younger audiences and women - and translating
their extremist screeds into other languages, especially English.
Production levels are at all-time highs, say analysts.

Experts believe Internet radicalization is replacing in-person
radicalization in terror camps, tea houses or mosques. The Web lets
al Qaeda & Co. build ties with the sympathetic, radicalize
those on the margins - and offer training and expertise to the
converted. All without a trip to a terror camp - a "virtual safe
haven."

Which leads to the next worry: Homegrown terrorists.

Al Qaeda has long sought to recruit operatives already in-place
in the West - foot soldiers who don't need passports or
transportation to slaughter innocents here.

Europe has a real problem. DNI Hayden told Congress this year of
an "influx of Western recruits" into Pakistan since 2006, which
suggests rising radicalizing across the Pond.

Homegrown terrorists pulled off deadly attacks in Madrid (2004)
and London (2005). Other plots have been hatched, or carried out,
in recent years in Germany, the Netherlands, France and
Denmark.

The Brits feel particularly under the gun; their authorities are
tracking dozens of active plots and more than 2,000 people in the
UK. The 2006 London-based conspiracy to bring down 10 or so
airliners over the Atlantic could've produced more victims than
9/11.

But it's not just Europe. We've also had terror attempts here,
too - by "self-radicalized" people who were inspired by, but had no
physical contact with al Qaeda at all. Such homegrown,
self-radicalized "lone wolf" terrorists are a particular worry for
the FBI.

There's also the growing intersection of terrorism and
international crime. Al Qaeda and others, such as the Taliban, are
increasingly turning to crime to fund their operations.

For instance, Afghanistan's poppy crop provides perhaps half of
the Taliban's income, according to US and UN analysts; al Qaeda is
likely getting a cut, too.

Terror groups are also making money through smuggling and
trafficking persons, the State Department reports. Those same
networks are moving foreign fighters, particularly into Iraq - but
could get terrorists into America as well.

The blood and sweat of brave Americans - plus international
cooperation - has brought great strides in tackling terrorism. Al
Qaeda's been its own worst enemy, alienating fellow Muslims with
its brutal violence.

But this is no time to rest on our laurels. Al Qaeda and its
affiliates continue to adapt their means and methods to our
security measures - meaning we must evolve to the twists and turns
in their terror tactics.

Peter Brookes is
Chung Ju Yung Fellow and Senior Fellow for National Security
Affairs in the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for
International Studies.

About the Author

Peter BrookesSenior Fellow, National Security AffairsDouglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign and National Security Policy