Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- February 24, 2013):

Program

Status

Renew/ Cancel Index

Made In Jersey (F)*

canceled

0.36

CSI:NY (F)*

0.50

Blue Bloods (F)

0.51

Vegas

0.57

The Good Wife

0.57

The Mentalist

0.68

Hawaii Five-0

0.78

Partners*

canceled

0.79

CSI

0.81

Elementary

0.83

Criminal Minds

1.00

NCIS: Los Angeles

1.03

Rules of Engagement

1.03

Person Of Interest

1.11

Mike & Molly

1.14

How I Met Your Mother

renewed

1.28

NCIS

renewed

1.30

2 Broke Girls

1.31

Two And A Half Men**

1.43

The Big Bang Theory

renewed

2.07

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With the premiere tonight of CBS' freshman drama Golden Boy, it seems well timed to take a closer look at the hopeful comments in the vein of "If Golden Boyfails, X will be saved".

Let's review the CBS drama situation, again, for the 473rd time.

CBS has premiered three new dramas each of the last seven Fall's.

Assuming CBS keeps the same number of drama hours next Fall, they'll need to cancel three of their Spring dramas to make room (ignore the already dead Made In Jersey, it is irrelevant). Currently, I am predicting those three canceled shows will be Vegas (certainly), CSI:NY (likely), and one of The Good Wife, The Mentalistor Golden Boy.

While the most common hypotheticals lean towards bad news for more dramas:

You think CBS will expand their sitcom time by an hour? Cancel another Spring drama.

You think CBS will time share their dramas in partial seasons? Increase their drama time on Sunday-Friday? Or air new dramas on Saturday? Check your medication.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

** The Renew/Cancel Index does not attempt to predict shows ending because the cast or production company chooses to end them. These shows have the ratings for renewal, but rumored cast/production company moves may end the shows.

From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old" Fall predictions in the table.

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

The Mentalist got fantastic ratings in its first season and I think there is a big enough fan audience that it could hold on for a final season. The Good Wife doesn’t get as good ratings as The Mentalist despite the fact that it airs earlier. I think we can safely say that Vegas and CSI: NY are goners, so Golden Boy’s ratings this next month or so will really determine whether its TGW, TM, or GB. There have been tons of GB ads on, so we’ll see. Perhaps TM on Fridays in CSI spot??? GB on Sundays???

merrranga

@PurpleDrazi

try not to bother the crazies… it just makes them talk more.

PurpleDrazi

@merranga

yeah, my bad.

JustMe

Unforgettable was a much better show than vegas or golden boy. That’s why it’s coming back this summer on CBS with new episodes. Both vegas and golden boy are done. Golden boy is not interesting at all and the cast is blah.

Elijah

I can’t feel sorry about bitter CSI Miami and NY fans. Your guys’ shows lasted 9+ seasons, and yet your crying that you won’t get a 10th or 11th season? Thats like a billionaire complaining about they don’t have enough money. I’d kill for a lot of my favorite shows to get 2 or 3 seasons, let alone 11 or 17 or 33.

del

Hey Purple Drazi, Sorry but thats just ridiculous ! NOT YOU, but rather that the networks would allow the quality of their product to be directed by ad agencies audacious dream of finding a few elusive & sporatic viewers.
Thats a great example of the cart leading the horse.

The Big three (ABC, CBS & NBC) have only a fraction of total audience they had in the 50’s through 80s during which time the US populations has almost doubled (179 mil in 1960 to 315 in 2012) & 100+ new networks have found life(ok TCM was worth it)But they never kept pace with the growth potential & competetion. By not maximizing the viewership of every show they continue to lose their viewer base & overall strength in the market place.

NBC should revise this ‘demographic algorthym’, as they did in 1971 to introduce it, to show what every other economic market already knows: volume = sales = money. Perhaps they can convince ad companies to re-introduce competetive marketing strategies(ie. coke vs Pepsi) which requires greater exposure rather than selective targeting.

Bill Gorman, your into these statistics. Do you think the 18-49 is really the best exposure for advertisers ? Are networks suffering as a consequence
of tailoring their shows at the risk of losing a broader viewership ? Thx

Anon

Why is RoE still hanging on? Warburton is doing a pilot for CBS. Spade is doing a pilot for ABC. The cast is moving on.

8 The Big Bang Theory
830 New Comedy
9 Two And A Half Men
930 New Comedy
10 Person Of Interest

Fri

8 Undercover Boss
9 New Drama
10 Blue Bloods

1

@ToXIX
NEW DRAMAS do not work on Fridays!!!!!

Ultima

NEW DRAMAS do not work on Fridays!

Blue Bloods? Grimm?

grammie

Vegas is one of my favorite shows on CBS. Sure hope they do not cancel. Was not impressed with Golden BOy!

Luke

Why are the only shows that survive anymore cookie cutter cop shows? –
you could throw a blanket over Blue Bloods, Hawaii Five-0, Criminal Minds, Elementary, NCIS and CSI – they are all the same show, I am tired of cop shows and reality shows – which is why I don’t watch that much television anymore.

pgsbox24

its a shame if they cancel Vegas… it wasnt given a very good chance…not shown consistantly everyweek…no promotion… it is a good show
it is a higher rated show than anything else on tv channels…not sure about cable…it beat golden boy!