We study the fragility and resilience of such cities and their urban peripheries, with the aim of encouraging data-driven policy decisions. Given its deadly trajectory in marginalized communities of hard-hit New York and London, coronavirus may well devastate much poorer cities.

The economic fallout of COVID-19 is also devastating for poorer people. In Rio’s favelas, where residents typically make less than US$5 a day, over 70% of households report an income decline since the coronavirus outbreak, according to a survey supported by the Locomotiva Institute and the Unified Center for Favelas.

A large proportion of those in slums subsist hand-to-mouth, working in the informal sector as street vendors, waste recyclers, artisans and the like. Such jobs offer no health insurance or pensions – no basic social safety net.

The Bangladeshi capital has about 80 public intensive care units, far fewer than required. Nationwide, just over 190 ICUs serve Bangladesh’s population of 161 million – 47 times less per capita than New York City after it surged its ICU capacity.

Lockdowns and curfews

Some developing countries acted early to prevent outbreaks and appear to have dodged the first wave of COVID-19. With memory of past pandemics fresh, governments, businesses and civil societies in Sierra Leone, Uganda and Vietnam conducted extensive testing and contact tracing and to bolster their primary health care systems, combined them with targeted education campaigns.

Yet, our research finds many governments are responding to coronavirus outbreaks in slums in one of two ways: with a heavy fist or with neglect.

Such tactics risk undermining residents’ already low faith in government, just when public trust is most needed to ensure compliance with health guidance.

State neglect also allows the criminal groups to consolidate their influence in slum areas. From Brazil to Mexico, cartels, gangs and organized crime are handing out food and medical supplies, deepening their grip on power.