THE ESSENTIALS

Right: Rahk had nine points on seven shots in the first matchup. [Eric Upchurch/MGoBlog]

THE US

Derrick Walton is still expected to sit out, though he did at least travel to Maryland on Saturday.

THE LAST TIME

Thanks to a strong all-around performance by Caris LeVert and a missed layup by Northwestern's Bryant McIntosh on the game's final possession, Michigan escaped with a 56-54 win at Crisler back in mid-January. A solid outing from Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman covered for the absence of a sick Spike Albrecht. The efforts of those two and Derrick Walton—who hit some timely threes—were just enough to overcome a 22-point game from Wildcats center Alex Olah.

On that fateful final play, LeVert came up limping. We'd soon learn he was out for the rest of the season. Michigan, 4-2 in the conference after the win, has gone 3-7 since.

THE STAKES

This is close to a must-win for Michigan if they want to get into the NIT. While a losing record no longer automatically disqualifies a team from making the NIT, no such team has been selected; Michigan would need to beat Rutgers and win the 8/9 game in the Big Ten Tournament just to get back to .500. (I don't believe the NIT counts the victory over Hillsdale, a D-II team.) That wouldn't necessarily guarantee Michigan gets in—they'd probably have to pull a huge upset over Wisconsin in the next round to lock down a spot.

Needless to say, the path to the NIT is a whole lot easier if Michigan wins the remaining two regular season games. At that point, they'd probably only need to win one game in the conference tournament to feel good about their postseason standing.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

Pos.

#

Name

Yr.

Ht./Wt.

%Min

%Poss

SIBMIHHAT

G

30

Bryant McIntosh

Fr.

6'3, 177

85

24

No

Decent scorer, high assist rate. Not remarkably efficient, but can create.

G

14

Tre Demps

Jr.

6'3, 198

82

24

Not really

Takes a ton of shots but isn't a great shooter: 48/33/65 2P/3P/FT%.

G/F

20

Scottie Lindsey

Fr.

6'5, 175

41

15

No

Low usage, mostly out there for defense. Struggling with shot.

F

34

Sanjay Lumpkin

So.

6'6, 220

85

10

Not Really

Minuscule usage, efficiency has plummeted in B1G play. Meh rebounder.

C

22

Alex Olah

Jr.

7'0, 270

72

25

Yes

Good rebounder, shot-blocker. Not a great finisher, but has range.

F

4

Vic Law

Fr.

6'7, 185

53

20

Not really

Good defender, rebounder whose offensive game is still developing.

G

23

JerShon Cobb

Sr.

6'5, 208

36

15

No

Spot-up shooter (36% 3P) missed last six games due to injury. Questionable.

F

32

Nathan Taphorn

So.

6'7, 215

20

18

No

Hitting 59% of twos and 50% of threes in limited opportunities.

THE RESUME

Northwestern's loss to Michigan was their fourth defeat in what would become a ten-game losing streak—they didn't win a game between December 30th and February 15th. The Wildcats then ripped off four straight wins, beating Iowa, Minnesota, Penn State (60-39!), and Indiana; three of those came at home. Most recently, they got crushed at Illinois.

THE US

Once again, it doesn't look like Derrick Walton will be available. John Beilein said today that Walton underwent X-rays (negative) earlier this week, then tried to return to basketball activities on Thursday, but didn't complete the workout.

THE STAKES

Despite the win over Ohio State, Michigan is still on the NIT bubble. They're projected as a six-seed on threeNITbracketology sites. In all likelihood, the Wolverines are going to need to win two of their last three regular season games (securing a winning record) and perhaps one more in the BTT to secure a bid. Remember, that NIT bubble shrinks every time there's a surprise conference tournament winner that wouldn't otherwise make the NCAAs.

As Drew Hallett points out, there's another seeding watch: BTT seeding, which could become very important if Michigan loses two of their last three. If the season ended right now, Michigan would be the nine-seed, playing #8 Illinois in the second round for the right to face top-seeded Wisconsin in the quarterfinals. That scenario is far from ideal, of course, but Michigan likely has to win out and get help to rise to the #7 seed and avoid the Badgers.

Winning this game would have a small chance of helping out Michigan's BTT seeding; more importantly, it would clear a major hurdle towards securing an NIT bid.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

On the plus side, it's a relatively favorable schedule. Michigan's toughest home-and-home is, uh, Iowa? Maryland? While the road-only slate is rough, that's a schedule set up for making a run.

From a fan's perspective, however, it sucks that we won't see Ohio State or Nebraska in Crisler next year; ditto trips to the Breslin Center or Assembly Hall.

THE STAKES

At this point, it's NIT bubble watch time. DRatings dropped Michigan from a two-seed to a four-seed in their latest update. The Bracket Matrix had the Wolverines as a six-seed before the loss to MSU. A loss to the Buckeyes won't bump Michigan from NIT contention, but a victory would make the stretch run a lot less daunting.

THE LAST TIME

Ohio State wallopped Michigan, 71-52, in Columbus. The Wolverines couldn't slow down freshman phenom D'Angelo Russell, who tallied 21 points and six assists, and they only managed 0.83 PPP even with LeVert and Walton in the lineup.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

Pos.

#

Name

Yr.

Ht./Wt.

%Min

%Poss

SIBMIHHAT

G

3

Shannon Scott

Sr.

6'1, 185

79

20

Yes

Great defender, facilitates offense well, still not much of a shooter.

THE RESUME

While the Buckeyes have only won twice on the road—against Northwestern and Rutgers—since they last faced Michigan, they haven't been an easy out away from home; losses at Purdue and MSU came by a combined five points. They've easily handled all challengers at home since their Big Ten opener against Iowa. At 8-5, they're at the back of the group pushing for second place behind Wisconsin.

THE ESSENTIALS

THE US

While there's still hope that Derrick Walton will return before the season ends, he won't be back in uniform tonight.

THE STAKES

Losing four in a row has put Michigan in danger of missing the NIT. The Bracket Matrix listed M as a six-seed when they updated at the end of last week; DRatings put them as the last three-seed; Big Apple Buckets placed them as a five-seed before the Illinois loss.

While Michigan finishes with two very winnable games (at Northwestern, Rutgers), they probably need to pull an upset in one of these next three much more difficult games (MSU, OSU, at Maryland) to feel comfortable with their postseason chances heading into the Big Ten Tournament.

As for pride, Michigan hasn't lost to State at Crisler since 2010, when the Spartans got away with murder on the would-be game-winning lob to Deshawn Sims.

THE LAST TIME

Led by Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman, Michigan almost pulled off a shocker in the Breslin Center, surging in the second half before going scoreless in overtime. The Wolverines haven't won since.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations; I've switched over to conference-only stats for %Min and %Poss now. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

Does a bit of everything: rebounding, passing, shooting, and hilarious turnovers.

F

22

Branden Dawson

Sr.

6'6, 225

84

22

Very

Great athlete, monster on the boards, excellent defender. Not a shot creator.

F

34

Gavin Schilling

So.

6'9, 240

45

18

Very

Solid rebounder and rim protector. Decent finisher.

F

10

Matt Costello

Jr.

6'9, 245

48

18

Very

Very similar minutes and profile as Schilling. Eminently elbowable face.

G

11

Lowrawls "Tum Tum" Nairn

Fr.

5'10, 170

41

13

Very

All-pass, no-shoot PG who's prone to freshman mistakes.

G

3

Alvin Ellis

So.

6'4, 205

18

14

Yes

Getting minutes with Javon Bess hurt. Has been really bad this year.

THE RESUME

Since the last meeting, MSU dropped a home game against Illinois, blew out Northwestern on the road, and most recently staved off Ohio State at the Breslin Center on a game-winner by Denzel Valentine. The Spartans are currently on the right side of the NCAA bubble. Michigan can play spoiler.

THE US

"We fully expect to have him back," Beilein said. "We just don't know (when). When he can run pain-free, he's going to get back out there. Now obviously there's some rehab involved to just get his cardio back up. He can't do that yet. But when he can, two or three days later we'll put him in a game."

Beilein added that "he's been getting better every day, but certainly not ready yet." Unless he makes a very quick turnaround, it seems like the earliest he'd be available would be for the Feb. 22 game against Ohio State.

THE LAST TIME

Michigan took on Illinois at Crisler in the Big Ten opener, a game that feels like it took place decades ago. A torrent of threes from Aubrey Dawkins and a surprise changeup to the 2-3 zone led to a comeback, overtime victory on the day Jim Harbaugh was introduced as head coach.

THE STAKES

The Wolverines need a most unlikely run to have a shot at the NCAA tournament; they'd most likely need to win five of their last six regular season games and take at least one in the B1G tourney to earn an at-large bid. Maize n Brew's Drew Hallett took a look the odds using KenPom:

NIT eligibility is based on the assumption Michigan would need to finish with a winning record to make it—no team with a losing record has qualified even after the NIT eliminated that as a set-in-stone requirement. Per KenPom, this is the second-toughest game remaining on the schedule, so a win tonight would swing those odds more in Michigan's favor.

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations; I've switched over to conference-only stats for %Min and %Poss now. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

Pos.

#

Name

Yr.

Ht./Wt.

%Min

%Poss

SIBMIHHAT

G

1

Jaylon Tate

So.

6'3, 170

64

14

Very

High assist and turnover rates. Almost never shoots. Gets to line a ton.

G

25

Kendrick Nunn

So.

6'3, 190

84

23

No

Very good outside shooter, less efficient inside arc, solid defender

G

21

Malcolm Hill

So.

6'6, 230

88

24

No

Having a breakout season. Close to the rare 50/40/90 (2P/3P/FT%) club.

F

12

Leron Black

Fr.

6'7, 220

40

21

Very

Very good rebounder. Not a great finisher. Foul-prone.

C

32

Nnanna Egwu

Sr.

6'11, 250

75

14

Not really

Good shot-blocker, offensive rebounder. Can score in post or step out.

*Rice and Cosby have been serving an indefinite suspension and it's unclear when they'll return. Both have been practicing with the team. Recent reports say Rice is expected to play while Cosby is not.

THE RESUME

Illinois got off to a rocky 2-4 start in Big Ten play, hampered by a road-heavy schedule and Rayvonte Rice suffering a broken hand that's sidelined him since early January. The Illini have bounced back with wins in four of their last five, including Saturday's upset in East Lansing.

THE ESSENTIALS

THE US

Michigan has won just twice in Assembly Hall since the 1989 championship season, and they'll still be without the services of Derrick Walton this time around, though his prognosis has ever so slightly improved:

Walton, who has missed the last three games because of a foot injury, could return this season — a potential upgrade from last week, when coach John Beilein said that Walton would be out for "the foreseeable future" because of an injury compounded by a turf-toe issue. ...

"He's in that (walking) boot and when he can walk pain-free again, then we'll start looking at it. We're doing therapy in the pool and different things with him. We're very hopeful he can return at some point this year," Beilein told reporters Saturday.

Hooray.

THE STAKES

THE LINEUP CARD

Projected starters are in bold. Hover over headers for stat explanations; I've switched over to conference-only stats for %Min and %Poss now. The "Should I Be Mad If He Hits A Three" methodology: we're mad if a guy who's not good at shooting somehow hits one. Yes, you're still allowed to be unhappy if a proven shooter is left open. It's a free country.

Pos.

#

Name

Yr.

Ht./Wt.

%Min

%Poss

SIBMIHHAT

G

11

Yogi Ferrell

Jr.

6'0, 178

93

21

No

Dangerous outside shooter and great distributor.

G

4

Robert Johnson

Fr.

6'3, 195

64

19

No

Sharpshooter takes half his shots from 3-pt. A bit turnover-prone.

G

1

James Blackmon

Fr.

6'4, 190

69

26

No

Excellent shooter, good athlete, can help on boards. Dealing w/ ankle injury.

F

5

Troy Williams

So.

6'7, 206

68

25

Very

Outstanding athlete, solid finisher and rebounder, not a shooter.

F

30

Collin Hartman

So.

6'6, 210

62

13

No

Low-usage stretch F hitting 59%(!) of threes in B1G play.

G

2

Nick Zeisloft

Jr..

6'4, 205

49

14

No

Almost exclusively a 3-pt shooter, hits 41% of them.

F

25

Emmitt Holt

Fr.

6'7, 215

33

14

Very

Low usage. Solid rebounder who tends to finish his chances at rim.

G

22

Stanford Robinson

So.

6'4, 193

31

20

Very

Slasher who hits just 38% of twos and is 0/9 from three on the season.

THE RESUME

Indiana looked pretty solid in nonconference play, beating #28 SMU and #18 Butler before taking #23 Georgetown to overtime; their loss to #11 Louisville was quite understandable, not so much a defeat at the hands of #125 Eastern Washington in Assembly Hall.

In Big Ten play, it's been all about the home/road splits: they're 4-0 in Assembly Hall and 2-4 away from it, with the road wins coming against Nebraska and Illinois. They've dropped three of their last four, though the most recent game, a road blowout at Wisconsin with James Blackmon Jr. sidelined due to an ankle injury, is hard to hold against them.