SPIN FACTOR® - The HSX Blog

Whisper Numbers: Will Iron Man 2 beat The Dark Knight?

The 2010 summer movie season blasts off with the return of a Marvel Comic superhero in Iron Man 2 [IRNM2]. Robert Downey Jr. [RDOWN] returns as the man in the iron suit, Tony Stark, along with Gwenyth Paltrow [GPALT] as Pepper Potts. Don Cheadle [DCHEA] takes over the role of James Rhodes, who suits up as War Machine. Also joining the cast are Mickey Rourke [MROUR], Sam Rockwell [SROCK] and Scarlett Johansson [SJOHA]. The first Iron Man opened at $102 million and was universally loved by audiences. With tremendous goodwill built up, the sequel will have more moviegoers feel the must-see urge opening weekend. Trackings indicate the record $158 million debut set by The Dark Knight is within striking distance. Iron Man 2 has already taken one record from The Dark Knight as the widest release ever at 4380 theaters. Unlike The Dark Knight however, Iron Man 2 reviews are not as stellar as its predecessor. Fortunately, the fan favorite is review-proof opening weekend. With not even a romantic comedy counter-programmed as competition, Iron Man 2 has an open field to punch out $160 million.

A Nightmare on Elm Street [NELMS] was heavily front-loaded on the Friday of its opening weekend. The Friday the 13th reboot plummeted 80% in its second weekend last year. A Nightmare on Elm Street couldtumble more than 65% to $11 million.

How to Train Your Dragon looks to cross the $200 million mark with another $6 million in its 7th weekend of release.

Focus Features is opening the documentary Babies [BABIS] in 534 theaters to take advantage of Mother’s Day. Babies could crack the top ten with around $3 million.