NL Daily Player Analysis - May 7th, 2018

Marcell Ozuna (OF) STL - I'm trying to remain optimistic on Ozuna, who despite massive struggles in the first month-plus is 22nd in MLB in exit velocity right now. The FB rate is down, the BABIP is a bit lower than expected, and he seems to be pressing a bit as the swing rate is up again this year despite the zone rate dropping. Some luck, some deterioration in approach is how I'd categorize this slow start. It was probably always unrealistic to expect Ozuna to come close to last year's HR/FB rate, but there's no way it stays down around 7 percent either...a rebound to the 2014/2016 levels is likely, the 2017 level much less so.

Walker Beuhler (SP) LAD - Buehler's rotation spot just got a little more secure again, as while the Dodgers are getting back Rich Hill this coming week, they've now lost Ryu and Kershaw during this road trip. Buehler has been stellar in his first three outings, posting elite GB and K rates to go along with a 1.13 ERA. The issue here is going to be what sort of innings limit he's working with. He's already at 29 between AAA and the majors, which means that it is very possible that he has less than 100 innings left this season. He absolutely needs to be owned in all formats, but it's worth considering whether or not you want to try and peddle him in the near future in redraft leagues. The odds of his innings being managed heavily are extremely high as we move into the second half of the season, and a complete shutdown is always possible as well. I love the kid and think he has a #2 ceiling (the command is average to average-minus), but if he only has 15-17 starts left in him, that's almost 10 fewer than anyone else you could utilize.

Alen Hanson (2B) SF - With Joe Panik out until mid-June or so, Alen Hanson has popped back onto the radar with another new team, his third in less than 12 months. Hanson started all three games over the weekend in Atlanta, going 6-14 with 3 2Bs and a HR, and just like every other time he's done this I'm reminded of how well he hit in A-ball at age 19. He's still just 25 and has 30-steal speed, decent contact ability, a touch of power, and the ability to play basically anywhere but catcher. I would have no problem snapping him up in deeper formats as depth or even as an MI already, and even those in standard formats should take note, as steals are harder and harder to come by the past few years.

Nick Markakis (OF) ATL - Markakis had his 12-game hitting streak snapped on Sunday, dropping his season line to 344/428/550. Markakis has been a durable player on a poor offense for years, but now he's suddenly a durable player on a good offense, and that makes a big difference. Setting aside the fact that he's killing the ball right now, Markakis has put up solid OBPs and reasonable counting stats without doing anything special for years now. I'd expect both R and RBI to increase by 10-20 percent this season if nothing else changes with him simply by virtue of the surrounding player improvement, and then we should potentially mention the fact that Markakis posted the second and third best hard contact rates of his lengthy career the past two seasons, and he's on his way to posting a similar or better number this year. Throw in the fact that his early chase rate is off to a 9-year low, and I'm only selling Markakis if I can get real value for him. The odds of a .280-.290 AVG with 15 HR, 90 R, and 90 RBI are fairly solid, so in my mind he's being overlooked.

Andrew Suarez (SP) SF - I've seen Ty Blach comps put on Suarez, and since they're both roughly the same size with middling velocity I get the thought process, but I think that's selling Suarez short. Where Blach is definitely a MLB fifth starter type, Suarez has a bit more upside than that, with a much better slider than Blach and a touch more velo. As such, the plus command plays up a bit more, although the lower GB rates will hurt him at times away from home. Then again, he did an admirable job keeping the ball down on Sunday in Atlanta, scattering 7 singles and a walk over 5 1/3 innings while striking out 6. It's three starts, but with a favorable home park he has a decent chance of being at least a streaming candidate.

Schuyler Dombroske: has been a Yankees fan since the early '80's, and has absolutely no remorse about the Boss spending money since he believes, that in no way guarantees any type of success by itself. Schuyler has been playing some form of fantasy baseball since 1987, switching from play-by-mail PTP board leagues to roto-style ball in around 1993. Schuyler still plays Diamond Mind (sort of 2nd generation PTP), roto, Diamond Kings, and STATS Diamond Legends on a reasonably consistent basis. Schuyler lives in Syracuse, NY with his wife, Deena, son Griffin (18), and daughter Kendall (16). Schuyler has been a financial advisor, now with Cadaret Grant, since 1995.