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2012: Two new post-convention polls

Obama got a bounce in a new CNN/Opinion Research poll. He’s up 52-46% among likely voters. That’s up from the 48-48% tie in the poll just before the conventions.

But in a new Washington Post-ABC poll, Obama got a bounce with all voters -- but not one with likely voters. Among likely voters, Obama and Romney are essentially tied with Obama edging Romney 49-48%. Among registered voters, though, Obama’s lead has expanded to 50-44%.

“As Americans mark the anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks today, President Obama and Mitt Romney will pause from slinging mud on the airwaves by temporarily pulling their largely negative campaign commercials off TV,” USA Today writes.

Charlie Cook: “It is becoming clear that if President Obama is reelected, it will be despite the economy and because of his campaign; if Mitt Romney wins, it will be because of the economy and despite his campaign.”

And he notes this about the upcoming debates: “As a result of all of this, while voters are quite open to firing Obama, they remain quite reticent about Romney. Debates can and have been critical, but they work better for candidates who need to demonstrate that they are smart and knowledgeable, tests Romney met and passed long ago; debates are tougher venues for demonstrating empathy and developing trust.”

The Boston Globe’s Johnson has a must-read piece on how the Obama campaign views this race at a state-by-state level. It quotes David Simas, Obama’s head of polling and focus groups. He told the Massachusetts delegation at the DNC: “This election is 2004. In 2008, Barack Obama won 365 electoral votes, but I want everyone to remember what percentage of the popular vote he got: Barack Obama received 53 percent of the popular vote. That means 47 percent of Americans voted for someone else,” he added. “Pointing around a hotel function room, Simas urged his listeners to envision it cut in half, and then one table on one side of the room cut in half again. ‘That’s the margin of error,’ he said. ‘That’s what we’re going into.’”

He also said that the bases are locked in for both candidates and that with true independents, Obama leads by 5. “That is our present margin. That is the margin we have had for the past six months. … This is 2004, this is 2000. We all remember Florida in 2000, where 537 votes changed the course of history. We all remember Ohio in 2004, where 100,000 votes changed the course of history.” Growing more passionate, he added: “I don’t want anyone in this room to wake up on the morning after the election and think about ‘what I could have done differently.’ Because this is person to person, neighbor to neighbor, co-worker to co-worker, people you pray with and people you play with. That is what this election is all about. We win this on the ground.”

The Romney and Obama teams sparred over the validity of a study showing seniors costs would go up under a voucher system.