"We participated in the parliamentary election to join the House. But whether we shall go or not depends upon how Ershad calls the Parliament into session."- Sheikh Hasina Wazed, president, Awami League

"The question of credibility does not arise at all. Opposition threw a challenge that they would resist the polls and the holding of the polls alone was a mark of credibility."- President H.M. Ershad

The question did arise, after all, when General H.M. Ershad finally romped home with a tremendous majority in last fortnight's presidential election. But the boycott of the polls by the Awami League and Bangladesh Nationalist Party, which head the country's major opposition alliances, and the pathetically low turn-out of voters eventually left little contest and less of credibility in the polls - the third in Bangladesh since 1971. Ershad's victory, despite his ardent desire to give the election a genuine coating of authenticity, had all along been a foregone conclusion.

The results predictably left political observers cold. The victory, as they pointed out, hardly reflected the actual showing at the polls. Most voting centres were deserted. The Government claimed 60 per cent voting, the eight-party alliance led by the Awami League put the figure at 3 per cent while independent observers put it at around 5 per cent. Presidential candidate Abdus Samad, who got little over 1 lakh votes, said he couldn't cast his own vote: someone had already exercised his right of franchise.

However, the polls were not entirely uneventful. The last few days before the elections saw concentrated violence in Dhaka, leaving two judges of the Supreme Court, among others, injured in a bomb blast. Dhaka University and areas around it were turned into a virtual battleground as the students took to the streets with bombs and bricks, and the police raided the hostels, seized a board of bombs and weapons and arrested over 200 students.

Ershad addressing Dhaka election rally

The scene would certainly have been dramatically different had the opposition parties decided to contest as well. The decision by the opposition alliances led by the Awami League of Mujib-ur-Rehman's daughter Sheikh Hasina Wazed, which has 72 seats in the Parliament elected under General Ershad, and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, founded by former president Zia-ur-Rehman and led now by his widow. Begum Khaleda, has taken the situation in Bangladesh back to square one.

Immediately before the elections, with his victory assured, Ershad declared that the important thing was to go ahead with the elections, which the Opposition had said couldn't be held without its cooperation. But the elections only served to distance the opposition parties further - a far cry from the May 7 parliamentary elections earlier this year which the Awami League and its allies contested and won, signalling as it were the return of mainstream politics in Bangladesh and seemingly marking the end of the country's political stalemate.

Khaleda Zia

But the process was reversed in the subsequent by-elections, when the League lost two seats held by Sheikh Hasina in Gopalganj, her ancestral village. This soured the party's fragile understanding with Ershad, and ultimately led to the boycott of last fortnight's elections.

So, far from proving the dispensability of the Opposition, the elections have only made the country's political scenario appear murkier, with everybody guessing Sheikh Hasina's next move.

Hope, for Ershad, lies in the proposed Indemnity and Ratification Bill, with which the Government is expected to dissolve the Parliament later this year. On the day of the presidential election, Ershad told reporters that his Jatiya Party and other "like-minded parties" could gainer the required 220 votes in Parliament.

The Indemnity Bill is also expected to influence Sheikh Hasina's future plans as well. Addressing a press conference immediately after the presidential election, Hasina did not rule out chances of her joining the Parliament when it is called in end-October. But given the Government's plans to dissolve the House with the Indemnity Bill, Hasina just might stay where she is - outside the Parliament - seeing little for herself in the new dispensation.

Sheikh Hasilia: divided leadershiv

Whatever turn the country s political situation may take, it seems unlikely that the Opposition will succeed in toppling General Ershad in the near future, considering the lack of unity in the Opposition: the two alliances are not exactly the best of friends and one would just as soon see the other hurt, instead of joining hands against their common foe. Observers have begun to feel that there was any real threat to Ershad.

Mohammed Earhad, general secretary oi the Communist Party of Bangladesh (CPB) has himself admitted that they contested the parliamentary polls because they realised that they couldn't oust Ershad through a movement. The CPB and us allies, who have made it to Parliament after a gap of three decades, will be the worst hit if the Indemnity Bill and the dissolution of the House does come through.

With the Jatiya Party, and its leader General Ershad, assured of more than enough support for pushing through the bill and dissolving the House, a change in the country's political scenario cannot therefore be ruled out. But from all indications, however, it may not be a change for the better.

For, though the proposed bill and the dissolution may make the political journey easier for Ershad and his supporters, it seems hardly likely to lead to anything decisive. So, with the approaching winter months. Bangladesh seems destined for a longer season of vacillation and uncertainty.

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