Russia Sees Imminent Capture of Grozny, and of Rebels Inside

By MICHAEL R. GORDON

Published: February 3, 2000

MOSCOW, Feb. 2—
The Russian military insisted today that it had thwarted a rebel attempt to break out of the besieged city of Grozny and would soon capture it.

Defense Minister Igor D. Sergeyev, who visited Russian troops near Grozny today, said that 586 separatists had been killed trying to escape and that the Russian advance on Grozny had accelerated.

With virtually all of the Western press barred from the battle zones in Chechnya, however, there was no way to confirm the Russian assertions. In addition, the Russian military's account was contradicted by Bislan Gantamirov, a pro-Moscow Chechen paramilitary leader who has been fighting alongside Russian troops in Grozny. He said many rebels had managed to flee Grozny.

''Over the last three days about 3,500 fighters have left,'' Mr. Gantamirov told reporters in the Chechen town of Urus-Martan. ''I cannot say how many are still in Grozny, but those who were able to leave have left, and the last group left today.''

The rebels' fate is one of the larger mysteries in the four-month war. Even judged from afar, it seems clear that the fighting within Grozny has reached a turning point and that the Russians finally appear to be on the verge of taking the city.

Grozny, however, is a ruin. Its capture is more of symbolic than strategic importance. By planting the Russian flag in Grozny, the Russian military will re-establish control over the scene of some of its greatest humiliations during the 1994-1996 war.

But the capture will not end the fighting. The rebels almost certainly never planned to keep the city in any case. Their strategy was probably to inflict heavy losses on the Russians and then flee to fight another day.

The main aim of the rebel attacks in recent days has been to blast an escape route through the Russian blockade of the city. According to NTV, an independent television network, the rebel assault began with 800 separatists leaving their settlements in Chechnya and assembling near Alkhan-Kala, just southwest of Grozny.

Their goal was to help establish a corridor so that their comrades in the city could escape. At the same time, rebels in the city were fighting to break out.

A Russian minefield caused some rebel casualties. And Russian troops eventually fought their way into the center of Alkhan-Kala.

The Russian military said it had confirmed that Shamil Basayev, the Chechen warlord, had been wounded by a mine while trying to flee Grozny and had lost a leg. Mr. Gantamirov said he, too, had heard that Mr. Basayev was wounded in the leg, but he did not say how serious the injury was.

But the Russian military did not capture Mr. Basayev, and his whereabouts were unknown.

The rebels have also said that several of their senior commanders were killed in the attempt to escape Grozny, including Lecha Dudayev, the Grozny mayor and nephew of the first Chechen president.

While acknowledging that they have suffered significant losses, the rebels insisted that they would carry on the fight.

''We have conducted a tactical withdrawal from Grozny similar to the tactical withdrawal of 1996,'' they said in a statement on their Web site (www.qoqaz.net) ''We pledge, however, to return.''