‘Today’ ratings soar during Matt Lauer chaos

NBC's "Today" show is one of the nation's best-known sources of morning news. But when that news is about "Today" itself, the audience response to the program can be quite surprising.

"Today" for the first time in three months was the nation's most watched morning-news program, defeating its main rival, ABC's "Good Morning America," by more than 539,000 viewers for the five days ending December 1st, or 12.4%. In the prior week, "GMA" won just 110,000 more viewers than "Today."

The NBC program last week attracted an average of 4.9 million viewers, compared with an average of 4.36 million for "GMA" and an average of nearly 3.53 million for CBS' "CBS This Morning."

Much of the surge can likely be attributed to the news – broken first in the early minutes of "Today's" Wednesday, November 29th broadcast – that NBC News terminated veteran anchor Matt Lauer, citing "inappropriate sexual behavior." Viewers were first to see troubled reactions to the news by Lauer's longtime colleagues Savannah Guthrie, Hoda Kotb and Al Roker. Over the next two days, "Today" was early to report on a statement from Lauer, and featured reporting on the matter by NBC News correspondent Stephanie Gosk.

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Who will replace Matt Lauer?

Ann Curry -- Viewers were shocked and stunned when Curry was tearfully released from "Today" on air in 2012. According to reports, she had a strained relationship with Lauer, who wanted her dismissed. CEO Steve Burke allegedly told Lauer ahead of the firing, “We need to sign you so we can do Ann," and top execs reportedly celebrated with a toast after she was fired. Although it seems unlikely that the network would potentially rehash old wounds by bringing her back, it could be a popular choice with viewers, many of whom have already taken to Twitter to campaign for her resinstatement.

Megyn Kelly -- When it was first announced that she would leave Fox News for NBC, there were multiple reports of a power struggle to determine her time slot. She's now situated two hours after Lauer's 7 AM spot, but amid all the turmoil, it's possible that she'll manage to snag that top seat.

Craig Melvin -- "Today" weekend co-host Craig Melvin certainly stands a strong stance of the big promotion to Lauer's top slot. He's already a familiar face among viewers, but he lacks the negative baggage of Ann Curry or Megyn Kelly.

Willie Geist -- The "Sunday Today" host has filled in for Lauer on multiple occasions. He's seen all across the network's programming, from MSNBC's "Morning Joe" to NBC News and NBC Sports.

Anderson Cooper -- After the drama with Ann Curry unfolded, leading many viewers to express a distaste for Lauer, rumors floated in 2013 that Anderson Cooper had been approached by NBC about replacing him. However, NBC News exec Alex Wallace at the time dismissed the claim, saying, "We want [Lauer] in the ‘Today’ show anchor chair for many years to come."

Keith Olbermann -- He spent 20 years as a sports reporter before moving into political journalism at MSNBC. Just days ago, he announced he would be ending his GQ web show "The Resistance," explaining that he wanted to retire from political commentary: "No illness. No scandal. No firing. Just I've said what I've had to say," he said. However, he didn't say he wanted to actually retire, leaving open the possibility of returning via a different type of program.

Tamron Hall -- This one's pretty unlikely. Hall decided herself to leave the show, much to the disappointment of many viewers and Hall's own colleagues. She reportedly felt burned by treatment of NBC execs, who booted her from her 9 AM time slot in favor of Megyn Kelly. She could return if there's no bad blood, but there almost certainly is.

Carson Daly -- He's already on the NBC payroll as the host of "The Voice," and some took to Twitter on Wednesday to campaign for him to slide into Lauer's seat.

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But "Today" won more viewers than "GMA" on the Monday and Tuesday broadcasts prior to the eruption of interest surrounding the Lauer news, according to data from Nielsen. On Monday and Tuesday, "Today" attracted greater overall viewership than its ABC competitor, as well as more of the viewers advertisers in news programs care about – people between 25 and 54.

The show's audience spiked significantly on Wednesday, when the show captured the interest of 5.74 million viewers, compared with 4.21 million on Tuesday and nearly 4.48 million on Monday. Viewer interest continued for the rest of the week. "Today" captured an average of nearly 5.22 million viewers on Thursday and almost 4.87 million on Friday.

Both NBC and ABC will likely place more scrutiny on this week's audience measures to get a more normalized sense of viewership patterns surrounding the two shows. Season to date, "Good Morning America" is the most-watched morning program TV – but by just a hair. "GMA" has captured an average of 4.329 million viewers this season, compared with 4.27 million for "Today." The difference? A mere 59,000 viewers.

As it has for many months, "Today" continues to lure more viewers between 25 and 54 than its two main rivals. Last week, with the Lauer drama in the background, the difference was more stark. "Today" captured an average of 1.292 million people in the advertiser demo, compared with 972,000 for "GMA" and 684,000 for "CBS This Morning."

Ad buyers have said they do not anticipate an anchor change at "Today" to spur major ratings fluctuations, but rival networks are likely to do what they can to woo NBC's viewers to try something new at a moment of transition. NBC has not set a public timeline to find a replacement for Lauer. Hoda Kotb has been working alongside Savannah Guthrie since Lauer's ouster was announced.

NEW YORK, NY - SEPTEMBER 02: Today Show hosts Willie Geist, Natalie Morales and Matt Lauer enjoy themselves when Counting Crows perform on NBC's 'Today' at Rockefeller Plaza on September 2, 2014 in New York City. (Photo by Al Pereira/WireImage)

NEW YORK, NY - SEPTEMBER 01: (L-R) Carson Daly, Natalie Morales, Willie Geist and Dylan Dreyer speak on stage during NBC's 'Today' at the NBC's TODAY Show on September 1, 2014 in New York, New York. (Photo by Andrew Toth/Getty Images)

NEW YORK, NY - SEPTEMBER 01: (L-R) Jesse Carmichael, Mickey Madden, Adam Levine, PJ Morton, James Valentine, Carson Daly and Willie Geist speak on stage during NBC's 'Today' at the NBC's TODAY Show on September 1, 2014 in New York, New York. (Photo by Andrew Toth/Getty Images)