It is much better to be predictive than reactive in fantasy. In
fact, that statement is one of the core principles of my Preseason
Matchup Analysis series. After a fairly straight-forward ranking
of quarterbacks in my first installment of my dynasty series, the
running backs will almost certainly surprise. Let’s get right
to them, shall we?:

Considerations for RB

Four years of elite production remaining (priority given to younger players)

Age

Age/skill of supporting cast

Talent

Durability

Proven consistency

Coaching/scheme stability

With running back being such a short-term position in the NFL,
it is unrealistic to expect a player to maintain much more than
four years’ worth of stellar production. Because I trust
my eye when it comes to “scouting talent”, I don’t
mind ranking some younger upside backs over more proven (read:
older) veterans simply because the truth of the matter is that
a 28-year-old stud back today may be an over-the-hill 29-year-old
next season. As much as dynasty owners want to win now, the goal
is to set the team up for success in the long-term. Per usual,
nearly all of my leagues use PPR scoring and six points for all
touchdowns, so that will be the basis for these rankings as well.

Most owners will opt for
the consistency and greatness of Adrian Peterson at the top of
the coveted running back position. While there is a strong case
to be made for him (some may even call him the obvious choice),
his age suggests he will begin his decline sooner than later and
history says he will have trouble topping 1,500 yards rushing
this year (none of the previous six running backs to top 2,000
yards in a season rushed for more than Barry Sanders’ 1,491
in 1998). On the other hand, Martin’s star should only get
brighter. He is nearly four years younger and played a lot of
his rookie season without his two starting guards. Combined with
the fact that Martin is a quality receiver and really did not
start announce his arrival until about midway through the season
and there is plenty of reason to like Martin to rival “All
Day” this year. Peterson could very well be on his last
NFL legs when Martin should hit his physical prime in about three
years, making Martin the better long-term choice.

After watching him tear up the postseason, reports of Foster’s
demise were greatly exaggerated. While his critics will be right
in a couple of years, there’s plenty of reason to believe
Foster’s “slippage” had as much to do with the
right side of the offensive line as it did from overuse due to
all the injuries backup Ben Tate dealt with in 2012. Foster enjoys
the perfect marriage of skill set and offensive fit, so 2-3 more
years of elite production should be attainable so long as Tate
– or a reasonable facsimile of the 2011 Tate – exists
on the Houston roster. Charles’ owners may bemoan HC Andy
Reid’s hiring in Kansas City, but it isn’t as if Reid’s
predecessors believed in force-feeding him either. At least in
Reid’s offense, the running back is almost certain to be
a high-volume pass catcher. Just 26 years of age with 784 career
carries (and no more than 230 in a season), a strong case could
be made for Charles at the top spot.

Tier 2

Although he is at a prime age and there is ample reason to believe
that he will get all the touches he wants in new HC Chip Kelly’s
up-tempo offensive attack, McCoy begins the second tier because
he’ll cede touches to Bryce Brown. More importantly, however,
is that Kelly is unlikely to supplement McCoy’s PPR numbers
the same way Reid did. While some will knock Richardson for his
less-than-gaudy 3.6 YPC as a rookie and may even consider him
injury-prone, the mere fact he played at all through broken ribs
is a testament to how strong-willed he is. He caught 51 balls
in an offense ill-suited for most of the team and will almost
certainly find life easier in an offense run by new OC Norv Turner
and HC Rod Chudzinski. Richardson could easily find himself atop
this list next year.

Speaking of challengers to the throne, Spiller fulfilled former
HC Chan Gailey’s draft-day notion that Spiller would eventually
be “our Jamaal Charles”. Unfortunately, Gailey tended
to underuse him in much the same way. Regardless, when Spiller
had the chance to be the feature back during parts of the first
half of the season, he dominated. It is unclear just how much
Fred Jackson will be in the picture in 2013, but new HC Doug Marrone
appears set on rolling with the “hot guy” and, more
often than not, that should be Spiller. There’s also a strong
sense that Spiller knows this is his big break, so assuming he
can avoid the durability and conditioning issues he has faced
at various points, Spiller could be the top dynasty back at season’s
end. Rice falls down the board a bit for the simple fact that
Bernard Pierce appears to be ready for a substantial role in the
Ravens’ offense. While Pierce isn’t a threat to Rice
per se, he will probably see 8-12 touches on a fairly regular
basis. That’s enough action to view Rice in a mid- RB1 light
as opposed to the elite RB1 he has been for several years.

If there is one running back that figures to benefit more from
a coaching change more than any other, it could easily be Forte.
Michael Bush makes too much money to be an afterthought, but Chicago’s
offense under new HC Marc Trestman could easily be a sleeping
giant for unsuspecting fantasy owners. Trestman has already raved
about Forte abilities as a receiver – which were often underutilized
by previous play-callers – and believes he is a complete
back. Forte could easily be in line for his best season since
his rookie year, so age (will be 28 in December) is the only thing
keeping him from being higher on this list. Whereas Forte has
been underutilized, Lynch has been one of the few backs in the
league consistently given a heavy workload. Lynch’s season
really took off in 2012 when the Seahawks loosened the reins on
QB Russell Wilson and given the success of the new offense, there’s
no reason to believe Seattle will go back to its old ways. Lynch’s
age (turned 27 in April) along with his running style make him
a candidate for a dramatic falloff over the next couple of years,
which makes him slightly less attractive for owners taking more
of a long-term view.

Tier 3

As opposed to the traditional “Thunder and Lightning”
concept that teams have employed in recent years with their running
backs, Morris represented the thunder to Robert Griffin III’s
lightning last season with great success. Morris isn’t the
most exciting back to watch, but it’s hard to argue with
the results or how often Mike Shanahan-coached backs make good
fantasy players. The reasons Morris finds himself outside of the
second tier are due to the unpredictability of Shanahan and the
lack of production he brings as a receiver. Ridley surpassed even
the wildest expectations owners had for him entering last season,
becoming the hammer in a New England offense that had gotten too
finesse in recent years. Ridley’s goal-line role is probably
secure going forward, but there are a number of reasons why this
24-year-old back in a high-scoring offense finds himself in this
tier: 1) Ridley is not the best receiver, 2) HC Bill Belichick
will play matchups and situations, some of which include trusting
his back to be able to make plays/blocks in the passing game that
aren’t his strong suit and 3) fumble issues. A healthy Shane
Vereen is a real threat to steal substantial touches from him
in the coming years.

Wilson is poised to be the next Jamaal
Charles (a big-play back that doesn’t require a lot of carries),
but there’s no guarantee he’ll be allowed to become a featured
back for a coach in Tom Coughlin who has enjoyed great success
using committee backfields. Maybe the Giants allow likely goal-line
back Andre
Brown to hit free agency next season, but it might be asking
too much for Wilson to become much more than a more durable version
of Ahmad
Bradshaw. Ball is the first rookie to make the list in large
part because it is possible he may not be the focus of the offense
for most of his early career. In a Peyton
Manning-led offense, that’s a good thing. In recent years,
Manning has helped boost the fantasy fortunes of backs like Joseph
Addai, Dominic Rhodes and Willis
McGahee. Ball is certainly no less talented than any of those
backs and joins an offense in Denver that has an embarrassment
of riches in the passing game. Ball’s rookie year may be a bit
of a rollercoaster given HC John Fox’s preference for veterans,
but he should be a solid fantasy force in dynasty leagues as long
as Manning is calling the shots.

Several players earn “injury-prone” tags while others
are hit with them somewhat unfairly. Murray is such a case. During
his college days, Murray suffered a turf toe, dislocated kneecap
and ruptured hamstring. In two pro seasons, he’s faced a
broken ankle and a foot sprain. In short, he sounds more prone
to bad luck than injury since the argument could be made than
none of these serious injuries seem to be related, at least not
in the order they occurred. Either way, it should be noted that
Murray – behind a porous offensive line – has averaged
4.8 YPC in his short Cowboy career. With only a season’s
worth of carries to his credit (324) in those two seasons, it
is not unthinkable that he could be a top 5-10 back in fantasy
if he can finally play a full 16-game schedule behind what should
be a better offensive line.

Tier 4

Bell has about everything a dynasty owner could want from a running
back (good size, good receiving skills, durability, won’t
turn 21 until August, clear path to feature-back duties, etc.)
except that he isn’t a special talent. While “special
talent” isn’t a necessity for a player to be an elite
fantasy back, it is the one trait holding him back from a top
10-15 spot on this list. McFadden is a strong bet to enjoy one
of his finest seasons, but durability (nearly five missed games
per season) is always going to be his biggest shortcoming. Fortunately,
his price tag is down from last season, which could allow owners
to snag a pretty solid-producing RB2 later than usual. Johnson
would undoubtedly be ranked higher if the Titans hadn’t
signed free agent Shonn Greene to reprise the role of LenDale
White. Johnson isn’t losing his job to Greene, but Tennessee
has pretty much closed the book on CJ2K in short-yardage and goal-line
situations. Throw in the fact that Johnson doesn’t get near
the work in the passing game that he should and owners are left
with a player that will be dependent on breaking a long run to
put up the kind of fantasy numbers he used to. Johnson will turn
28 in September, meaning he may not be all that far away from
losing a bit of his legendary speed.

Miller is generating a lot of buzz in fantasy this offseason
for a second-year player who managed 57 touches as a rookie. Few
will question that he has the talent to be a lead back or the
confidence the team seems to have in him, but his pass blocking
needs to improve a lot from last season – a skill that just
happens to be a strength of rookie Mike Gillislee. Miller’s
talent should win out in the end, but he’s a definite risk-reward
pick at the moment for an owner looking for a RB2. Bernard would
appear to have a bright future ahead of him as the most talented
back on an improving team that likes to run the ball and is starved
for big-play ability from its running backs. While BenJarvus Green-Ellis
doesn’t represent the greatest of obstacles, he is under
contract for two more seasons at a reasonable rate and a superior
short-yardage/goal-line option, so Bernard may not be able to
reach his fantasy ceiling until 2015. Owner Mike Brown and HC
Marvin Lewis have also long preferred a bigger back to lead the
offense, so Bernard will likely have to show he is clearly the
best back on the roster in order to be featured at any point before
then.

Jackson joins Atlanta about 2-3 years too late (at least) to
really maximize his fantasy value since he’ll turn 30 later
this summer. Still, Jackson is such a rare physical specimen and
so uniquely talented that he is one of the few rare good bets
to produce into his early 30s. His receiving skills and place
within an explosive offense further enhance his chances at being
an effective fantasy back to the end of his three-year deal. Bush
leaves his feature-back role in Miami for a slightly reduced role
in Detroit, but there’s every chance he’ll see his
PPR value increase. The Lions plan on using Bush in much the same
way he was used in New Orleans (or how they used Jahvid Best),
but he’ll trade in the natural grass of Sun Life Stadium
for the Field Turf of Ford Field. On the surface, that hardly
seems like a concern, but it is notable that his injury woes stopped
about the same time he joined the Dolphins in 2011. Either way,
more than 12 games in an offense as high-powered as Detroit’s
should be good enough to make Bush a very solid RB2 in dynasty
leagues over the next three-plus years.

Jones-Drew has endured an eventual past year. There was a holdout,
a Lisfranc injury and the alleged misdemeanor battery of a security
guard. The last item doesn’t appear likely to stick, but
MJD’s two-month reluctance to have surgery on his foot and
his contract are bigger concerns for his owners. Entering the
final year of his contract (with the strong likelihood nothing
will get discussed until after the season), Jones-Drew could easily
opt to finish his career with a winner. Many fantasy owners seem
to be viewing Ivory through rose-colored glasses. There is no
question he saw far less work in “The Big Easy” than
he should have and that, at age 25 and 220 pounds, he can handle
a big load. However, he runs as if he has complete disregard for
his own well-being and that style doesn’t tend to lend itself
to 16 games per year. He is certain to be a favorite of HC Rex
Ryan and Jets fans, but it is hard to see him holding up long
enough each year to be a true feature back.

Tier 5

Regular readers likely remember I was on the Ballard bandwagon
fairly early in the game last season. Ballard is by no means a
special talent (and thereby replaceable), which is part of the
reason why he begins this tier despite being in a pretty good
offense with little to no competition for his job. It’s
a highly likely, however, that Andrew Luck will not be attempting
627 passes in new OC Pep Hamilton’s offense and a solid
bet that Ballard will be used much more as a receiver as Indianapolis
moves from a vertical-based offense to a more of a West Coast
attack. Gore is very likely entering the final two seasons of
his fine NFL career – at least with San Francisco. He has
a great supporting cast, one of the best run-blocking offensive
lines in the league and a scheme that fits his skill set to a
tee, but turned 30 in May and will be a free agent at the end
of the 2014 season. It is entirely possible that his workload
will start tailing off next season if rookie Marcus Lattimore
is ready to roll in 2014.

Stewart has been a dynasty darling since he entered the league.
Still only 26 with 818 NFL carries, Stewart is clearly the best
back in his backfield. But Carolina’s insistence on splitting
up the carries – as well as the goal-line effectiveness
of Cam Newton – figures to only reinforce Stewart’s
reputation as a fantasy tease. Pead – along with maybe Miami’s
Miller – is one of the few veteran “projections’
on this list. The University of Cincinnati product attributed
his disappointing rookie season to falling behind due the NFL
rule that prohibits rookies from attending offseason workouts
before their college class graduates. No such obstacle will be
in his way this season and, given the likelihood that St. Louis
will spread defenses out on a regular basis, Pead’s speed
and quickness could be the perfect complement to rookie Zac Stacy’s
power game. Pead will have to battle 2012 rookie surprise Daryl
Richardson for his role (as well as a season-opening one-game
suspension), but the former is the more talented player.

Sproles is a tricky player to rank. As a 30-year-old back (as
of June 20), Sproles should be about ready to hit the “old
man’s cliff”. However, with only 691 offensive touches
in his career, there’s probably little reason to believe
the “Rule of 30” applies to him. Kevin Faulk –
a back that played the same kind of role (albeit less effectively)
– was still moderately productive at age 32 and wasn’t
in Sproles’ class in terms of speed, quickness or talent.
The Saints know how to use him and, just as importantly, how much
to use him, so it wouldn’t be the least bit surprising if
he produces at a high level for 2-3 more years. Franklin is the
first back on this list that will not likely be the top player
on his team’s depth chart, but as a durable back that can
excel in the passing game, I firmly believe he will be a better
long-term fit in Green Bay than fellow rookie Eddie Lacy. GM Ted
Thompson is one of the best in the business, so it’s a safe
bet that Green Bay will have a good plan to utilize both backs.
In PPR leagues, however, I’ll take Franklin’s hands
and durability over Lacy’s touchdowns and injury history.

It took about three weeks for Brown to go from the ridiculous
to the sublime. Following a two-game run in which he ran over
and through Carolina and Dallas for 347 yards and four scores
on 43 carries, Brown rushed for a total of 76 yards on 40 attempts
to close out 2012. Obviously, neither small sample provides an
accurate picture for Brown as teams caught on to his desire to
take everything outside and penchant for fumbling. Despite serving
behind one of the best backs in the league, Brown’s talent
alone is a reason to value him in fantasy. A secondary reason
– besides his age (22) – is the fact he will be playing
for new HC Chip Kelly. The new coach will almost certainly find
enough carries for two backs in his up-tempo offense, which emphasizes
running the ball. Lacy is a huge improvement over Cedric Benson
and every other veteran runner on the Packers’ depth chart.
He should provide Green Bay with the kind of physicality that
it has lacked for years, but it is difficult for me to imagine
a situation in which he isn’t at least sharing touches with
Franklin – whether it be because Franklin is a superior
player in the passing game, Lacy is dealing with injury or Franklin
emerges as the better back. Lacy’s scoring upside is huge
in this offense, however, so even a partial role would probably
be enough for him to serve as a fantasy RB2.

Ingram finally got healthy toward the end of the 2012 season
and it started to show in the box score. Still the Saints’
goal-line back, Ingram is expected to serve as the early-down
hammer. His upside is obviously capped by the fact he will leave
the field in favor of Pierre Thomas on occasion and Darren Sproles
in come-from-behind and passing-down situations, but a healthy
Ingram could produce that elusive double-digit touchdown season
many expected him to have as a rookie. Injuries have cost Tate
from having much of a pro career to this point (with the exception
of 2011), but it’s a near-lock he will not return to Houston
when his contract runs out at the end of the season. As one of
the league’s top backup running backs, owners would be wise
to pay a bit more for him in hopes that he finds himself in a
lead-back/feature-back role in 2014. It is also entirely possible
he runs into some value in 2013 should Foster’s heavy workload
catch up to him at some point.

It is uncommon – to say the least – that a running
back coming off severe injuries to both knees with little chance
to play in 2013 warrants a spot among the top 40 dynasty running
backs, much less is deserving of a roster spot. Lattimore is not
only the exception, but a good stash for owners that have the
luxury – like San Francisco – to play the waiting
game on his recovery. Few teams have the ability to wait on a
player for a year, but no team would have spent a fourth-rounder
on a back with his injury history if they felt they would have
to wait on him for two years. A healthy Lattimore would have been
the most talented back in this draft and his work ethic makes
him as good of a bet to produce on the field in 2014 as anyone
trying to make his way back from the type of injuries he suffered.
Mendenhall has proven to be a capable workhorse back when healthy
and new HC Bruce Arians figures to give him a chance to do it
again given the familiarity between the two from their days in
Pittsburgh. Entering his age-26 season, Mendenhall could find
himself much higher on this list if he is able to recapture the
numbers he posted as a Steeler.

One year didn’t exactly change my mind in regards to Mathews’
talent, it has to do more with his body not showing the ability
to cooperate. He also ran behind one of the league’s worst
offensive lines last year when he was healthy. His offensive line
– and obviously his durability – did not improve substantially
in the offseason while San Diego also added Danny Woodhead to
the mix, making it increasingly likely Mathews will see the same
kind of limited third-down work he did last season. Vereen had
his coming-out party in the playoffs against Houston and could
shoot up this list in 2014 if he is able to consistently steal
significant touches from Ridley. But as we discussed earlier,
a member of a Belichick backfield isn’t usually one that
fantasy owners can feel safe putting into their lineups each week.

Leshoure surpassed many preseason expectations since Jahvid Best
was never cleared to return to the field and had his moments in
fantasy, but was largely disappointing as he was outplayed by
Joique Bell on a number of occasions. Leshoure will probably keep
the short-yardage/goal-line chores over the next 2-3 seasons,
but Bush is very likely to dwarf his statistical production and
steal most of the work in between the 20s. A similar scenario
could play out in Cincinnati with Green-Ellis, although it doesn’t
seem likely to happen this year. Bernard is easily more talented
than the “Law Firm”, but it remains to be seen how
stubborn the Bengals will be in remaining a team that wants to
grind it out with a bigger back. Like Leshoure, Green-Ellis is
a near lock to retain short-yardage/goal-line duties if/when Bernard
proves to be the superior option, but finds himself lower on the
list because he is nearly five years older than his Detroit counterpart.

Tier 6

Despite Pead’s disappointing rookie season, Richardson
is expected to play second fiddle to him for the right to see
the most touches between the 20s in 2013. Richardson has more
than enough talent to hold off Pead for a second straight season,
but both figure to lose short-yardage and red-zone carries to
Stacy. One of the more interesting storylines at the running back
position this offseason will be just how much Andre Brown can
eat into Wilson’s workload. Brown will almost certainly
claim the goal-line duties and play the Brandon Jacobs role in
this offense. While Brown is a better player now than Jacobs was
in his final years in New York, Wilson is more talented and figures
to be more durable than Ahmad Bradshaw. The Seahawks didn’t
need to draft Michael, but he is a serious threat to Robert Turbin’s
backup job right away and could ascend to the top spot sooner
than later if Seattle decides to part with Lynch in 2014 (when
the guaranteed money on his contract runs out). Then again, Michael
could be forced to wait until 2016 if the Seahawks decide to keep
Lynch until the end of his contract.

Stacy is the most certain of the Rams’ backs to keep his
projected role, but seems to be the least likely to be the lead
back. In St. Louis’ improving offense, his short-yardage
and goal-line work will mean more than it used to for Steven Jackson,
but not so much where he should be a regular fantasy starter anytime
soon. Pierce became the young complement the Ravens have wanted
to emerge alongside Rice and made enough of a dent to drop Rice’s
fantasy value a bit. Still, Rice isn’t giving up his starting
job or sharing carries anytime soon, so Pierce appears to be locked
into a backup 8-10 touch role for the foreseeable future. Randle
might as well be in the same boat as Pierce (albeit less talented
with a worse offensive line), with virtually no shot to challenge
the starter. However, those disadvantages are counterbalanced
by the fact he will be backing up DeMarco Murray, who has yet
to show he can withstand the weight of a feature-back workload.

Like McFadden, Latavius Murray (6-2, 223) has great straight-line
speed and is built to succeed in a power-running game. Like Randle,
there is a good chance he’ll have 3-4 opportunities to show
it each season – assuming he can beat out Rashad Jennings
for the backup job. The return of HC Sean Payton should also mean
that Thomas resumes being a useful flex play in fantasy. When
used correctly, Thomas is a solid 8-10 carry-per-game back who
will supplement those yards with the occasional score and a healthy
number of receptions. Even as Ingram appears to be angling for
more touches and Sproles will return as his passing-game complement,
there is room for a player like Thomas who can do both very well.
Many will likely think Robinson is ranked way too high for a college
quarterback learning another position, but the uncertain nature
of Jones-Drew and lack of quality depth behind him make a compelling
case for a naturally-talented runner like Robinson. The rookie
has essentially been promised 10-15 plays already and may find
himself atop the Jags’ depth chart in 2014 if the team (or
Jones-Drew) opts to go in a different direction next year.

Tier 7

For owners looking for this year’s Vick Ballard (steady
but unspectacular rookie producer who could find himself featured
next season), consider Taylor. The Stanford standout possesses
a similar game, the same level of talent and even gets the same
play-caller (Arians) as Ballard had in 2012. However, the big
difference is that unlike Donald Brown, Rashard Mendenhall has
proven himself in the NFL and is the clear starter in Arizona
if he has fully recovered from his 2011 ACL tear. Hillman generated
a lot of buzz last summer as the back that could eventually steal
the lead-back role in Denver’s high-powered offense, but
one year later it appears he has clearly settled in as little
more than a change-of-pace back. The second-year back bulked up
in the offseason after reportedly weighing 175 pounds at one point
last season. Ideally, he settles in as a 30-40 catch back that
is able to give Montee Ball a breather on running downs. Lamar
Miller may be generating the most buzz in Miami and possess more
talent than Gillislee, but don’t discount the rookie’s
chances at stealing a few of his snaps. Gillislee doesn’t
have much of a “wow” factor to his game, but his blocking
skills will almost certainly get him on the field while his ability
to fight for extra yards may make him the preferred short-yardage/goal-line
option down the road.

Hunter will be about eight months removed from his Achilles’
tear when training camp starts, but it might be closer to the
end of the season before he can be expected to show the same kind
of explosiveness he did before the injury. With that said, he
appears to be a better long-term bet to carry RB2 duties in San
Francisco than LaMichael James. Greene trades in his ill-suited
feature-back role in New York for a complementary role that he
is more suited for in Tennessee. The one problem is that he is
far from a great short-yardage/goal-line runner, which makes him
a poor complement to Chris Johnson. Still, given the Titans’
willingness to give goal-line carries to Jamie Harper last season,
Greene is probably going to remain in his role for the foreseeable
future. James, especially in light of Hunter’s injury, is
the explosive complement in San Francisco. His dynasty stock hinges
directly on the ability of Lattimore and Hunter to recover from
their injuries. If Hunter’s return remains ahead of schedule,
James may be lucky to see more than a handful of snaps per game.

The fact the Chiefs took a player with an injury history like
Davis before more durable players like Franklin or Taylor should
serve as a pretty good indication how much Kansas City liked him.
Davis isn’t going to start anytime soon – barring
a Charles injury – but he has talent to be a fantasy factor
should Charles be sidelined for any length of time. It is very
rare that a third-string running back can ever be described as
having a lot of upside, but Bolden is probably another Ridley
fumbling problem away from seeing significant time. Make no mistake:
a Ridley and Vereen backfield makes the most sense, but HC Bill
Belichick’s backfields are typically far from predictable.
Ellington’s stock has about as great of variance as any
player on the bottom half of this list. It’s not hard to
imagine a scenario in which he sees little time on offense his
rookie year and is subjected to a strict backup role. He could
also work in tandem with Taylor (the Vereen to Taylor’s
Ridley) in 2014 or his big-play ability could be too tempting
to sit and he could be the feature back next season. This low
ranking suggests Mendenhall will stick in Arizona after this season.

Bush has been one of the better backup running backs in the league
for a while, but his run at fantasy relevancy may be coming to
an end sooner than later. In addition to the fact he will turn
29 in mid-June, Trestman’s offense will almost certainly
feature Forte more as a receiver than any other play-caller he’s
had as a Bear. Obviously, Bush can contribute in that regard as
well, but with Trestman smitten with Forte, Bush may see his regular
touches outside the red zone cut. Turbin was as good of a backup
running back as there was in the NFL last season, but Christine
Michael is a superior talent. It would come as little surprise
if Michael becomes the lead back after Lynch moves on, leaving
Turbin in the same role he filled in 2012. For all the talk about
his declining role, DeAngelo Williams received more touches in
2012 than he did in 2011. With that said, the end is near for
D-Will, who will either retire or be looking a bit role with another
team in about three years. Williams is hard to start in any fantasy
league given Carolina’s insistence on sharing the backfield
workload, which includes losing rushing attempts to Cam Newton
and splitting running back work with Stewart. At this point, he’s
the running back version of Devery Henderson – capable of
providing 2-3 huge games and doing little else in the rest of
the season.

Tier 8

Bradshaw’s recent flirtation with the Colts suggests he
is on the verge of signing, be it Indianapolis or somewhere else.
At 27 years of age, Bradshaw should be a committee back at worst
when healthy. Until he finds a definite landing spot, however,
he’s little more than a flyer in dynasty leagues. Ryan Williams
is arguably the best talent in the Arizona backfield, but it sounds
as if he is still battling some demons more than a year after
tearing his patella tendon. Still, it seems likely if he can get
past it, he has as good of chance as any player to take the lead-back
role in Arizona should Mendenhall fail to meet expectations. Cadet
could very well be Sproles-in-training, but it is hard to say
he is roster-worthy in most dynasty leagues right now. It’s
unlikely he’ll see much playing time in 2013 if Sproles
is healthy, which makes him more of a player to track throughout
the season and revisit next offseason.

Kerwynn
Williams should be the explosive passing-game complement to
Ballard that Donald
Brown hasn’t proven he can be. If Bradshaw lands in Indy,
then the rookie’s first-year impact will be primarily on special
teams. There was plenty of reason that Rodgers needed to be Atlanta’s
lead back last year, but his stock took a nosedive the day Steven
Jackson showed up. Jackson has more left in the tank than
Michael
Turner does plus he is a significant better receiver. As a
result, Rodgers will function as little more than a true backup.
Fred
Jackson may very well have two years left, but his workload
figures to drop off again in 2013 after he averaged 15 touches
last season. Buffalo appears ready to feature Spiller, meaning
the 32-year-old Jackson is a back-of-the-bench fantasy option
with little upside in dynasty leagues. Woodhead also has limited
value despite being in the same backfield as one of the more injury-prone
running backs in the league and four years younger than Jackson.
While he has a chance to reach certain levels of his 2012 line
with New England (116 touches and 747 yards), he’s highly unlikely
to come close to the seven touchdowns he scored.

Tolbert got a bit more run as the season progressed and boosted
his numbers considerably with a two-score game in Week 15 and
a three-TD game in Week 17. New OC Mike Shula has promised a run-heavy
approach and it wouldn’t be surprising if Tolbert acted
as a second goal-line back option behind Newton. Reece had a nice
little run during the middle part of the 2012 season and has probably
assured himself of a regular role as the third-down back. That
obviously would hurt McFadden’s PPR value but may give him
a better shot at staying healthy. But with Rashad Jennings and
Latavius Murray on the roster, Reece’s days of filling in
for McFadden are probably over. There doesn’t seem to be
much hope left for Thomas, who has already been passed by Miler
on the depth chart and will probably be behind Gillislee by the
time the season starts. In a best-case scenario, he could serve
as a goal-line back in a vastly-improved Miami offense. Any running
back on a team coached by Mike Shanahan has to be considered a
possibility for fantasy. That back this season could easily be
the 5-7, 192-pound Thompson, who has a decent shot at third-down
duties provided he can be healthy in time for training camp. Thompson
is no threat to Morris, but he could have a future as his explosive
passing-game complement.

Like Thompson, James is not threat to the starter in Tampa Bay.
He is, however, an upgrade on Michael Smith and Brian Leonard.
In all likelihood, the Bucs will be running the ball a lot this
season, meaning the backup could find himself usable in fantasy.
Burkhead is quicker than he looks and has a certain amount of
Jacob Hester to his game. He’s likely only a special teamer
in 2013 and maybe even 2014, but could easily take over for Green-Ellis
when his contract expires. Gerhart cracks the list only because
of the possibility he will land with a team that needs a big back
via a training-camp trade or as a free agent next offseason. He
is not without ability, but Peterson has a firm grasp on the lion’s
share of the touches in Minnesota’s backfield.

Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and appeared in
USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine in 2010 and
2011. He hosted USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy
football internet chat every Sunday this past season. Doug regularly
appears as a fantasy football analyst on Sirius XM’s “Fantasy
Drive” and for 106.7 The Fan (WJFK – Washington, D.C).
He is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.