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Wednesday, October 18, 2017

Kurdish battle positions Kurds as US ally against Iran

There may be a silver but risky lining for Kurdish
nationalists in their devastating loss of Kirkuk and other cities on the
periphery of their semi-autonomous region as they lick their wounds and vent
anger over deep-seated internal divisions that facilitated the Iranian-backed
Iraqi blitzkrieg. Mounting popular anger coupled with US Congressional fury
could, however, position the Kurds as a key player in potential US efforts to
roll back Iranian influence in Iraq and counter the Islamic republic as part of
President Donald J. Trump’s tougher approach towards the Islamic republic.

Kurdish
President Massoud Barzani, in his first comment on the military rout of his
Peshmerga forces, vowed that last month that the overwhelming vote for Kurdish
independence in a controversial referendum "won't be in vain.” Refusing to
take responsibility for the rout, Mr. Barzani blamed the Kurdish predicament on
his political rival, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK.) that allegedly ordered
the withdrawal of Kurdish forces from Kirkuk.

Technically, that may well be correct. An Iranian
Revolutionary Guard general and close associate of Quds Force chief Qassem
Soleimani known as Eqbalpour,
accompanied by two Iraqi military commanders, reportedly met on the eve of the
Iraqi assault on Kirkuk with Kurdish officers in the offices of the PUK in the
city. Eqbalpour urged the Kurds to surrender the city peacefully.

“If you resist, we will crush you and you will lose
everything,” he warned, pointing to a map that detailed how the Iraqi assault
would unfold. “This is our military plan. We will hit you tonight from three
points — here, here and here,” Eqbalpour said. His Kurdish interlocutors agreed
to withdraw.

The Kurdish withdrawal, prompting a Kurdish exodus from the
city, was a stab in the back of the PUK’s arch rival, the Kurdish Democratic
Party (KDP), that is headed by Mr. Barzani. It has sparked a wave of popular
anger against Iran that could complicate any effort to negotiate a compromise
between the Kurds and the government in Baghdad of Prime Minister Haider
al-Abadi. who has vowed to ensure Iraq’s territorial integrity.

Iranian involvement in the Iraqi blitzkrieg has also sparked
anger in the US Congress even though the United States, which enabled Kurdish
autonomy within Iraq, vowed to remain neutral in the Kurdish-Iraqi dispute. Congressmen
threatened to impose an arms embargo on Iraq, now that the Islamic State
has effectively lost control of any territory in the country, in response to
the alleged use of US-built Abrams tanks and Humvees against the Kurds by
Iranian-backed Shiite militias known as the Popular Mobilization Units (PMU).

The United States provides an estimated $1 billion in annual
military assistance to Iraq. It has designated some elements of the PMU as
terrorist organizations.

In a statement,
Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman John McCain called on Iraqi forces
to "take immediate steps to de-escalate this volatile situation by
ceasing their advances. I am especially concerned by media reports that Iranian
and Iranian-backed forces are part of the assault. Make no mistake, there will
be severe consequences if we continue to see American equipment misused in this
way,” Mr. McCain said.

Mr. McCain’s words were echoed by Rep. Trent Franks, a
member of the House Armed Services Committee, who introduced a resolution
in Congress supporting Kurdish independence. “I urge Iraqi Prime Minister Al-Abadi
to fulfil his pledge to prevent any external or internal attack against the
Kurds and prove Baghdad is not
the puppet of Tehran. Otherwise, the US will have no other choice but to
pull funding as it cannot in good conscience send money to an Iranian patsy
working to subvert American interests,” Mr. Franks said.

Despite Iraqi denials that the PMU have access to US
weaponry, Kurdish emphasis on the role in Kirkuk of the Iranian-backed militia
and assertions of use of Abrams tanks and Humvees was designed to garner US
support. Iraq’s embassy in Washington charged that the claims constituted “a
concerted misinformation campaign by elements in the Kurdish region to cover up
their sinister actions in attempting to disrupt the coordinated and
professional movements of the Iraqi security forces.”

The Kurdish assertions amounted to an attempt to make it
difficult for the US Department of Defense to certify, in accordance with US
law, that Iraq has ensured that US military assistance does not fall into the
hands of extremist groups that include those elements of the PMU that have been
designated by the State Department.

The Kurdish position, beyond the immediate politicking that
aims to weaken Iraq’s position in any future negotiation, and garner US empathy
if not support, also positions the Kurds as a potential US ally in any upcoming
attempt to counter Iranian influence in Iraq or destabilize the Islamic
republic with the help of ethnic groups that populate its borders.

Mr. Trump signalled his tougher approach towards Iran by
earlier this month refusing to certify that Iran was complying with the terms
of a two-year-old nuclear agreement that opened the door to the lifting of
international sanctions. A potential re-imposition of sanctions by Congress in
the next sixty days could throw the accord into jeopardy.

US and Saudi officials have repeatedly hinted at the
possibility of attempting to achieve regime change in Iran. The Kurds, like the
Baloch in Pakistan, could play a key role in any such effort. It is a strategy
that would likely exploit anti-Iranian sentiment among Kurds in the wake of the
Iraqi blitzkrieg, enjoy support from Israel which has already publicly come out
in favour of Kurdish independence, and build on past US and Israeli support for
Kurdish nationalism.

That is support that ultimately did not help the Kurds
fulfil their aspirations. There is no guarantee that a repeat performance would
fare any better. Kurds defended last month’s referendum with the argument that
there is no good time for them to stake their claim given deep-seated Turkish, Iranian
and Iraqi rejection of their aspirations for independence. That makes their
current attempt and potential participation in covert operations against Iran
no less risky.

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About Me

James M DorseyWelcome to The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccer by James M. Dorsey, a senior fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. Soccer in the Middle East and North Africa is played as much on as off the pitch. Stadiums are a symbol of the battle for political freedom; economic opportunity; ethnic, religious and national identity; and gender rights. Alongside the mosque, the stadium was until the Arab revolt erupted in late 2010 the only alternative public space for venting pent-up anger and frustration. It was the training ground in countries like Egypt and Tunisia where militant fans prepared for a day in which their organization and street battle experience would serve them in the showdown with autocratic rulers. Soccer has its own unique thrill – a high-stakes game of cat and mouse between militants and security forces and a struggle for a trophy grander than the FIFA World Cup: the future of a region. This blog explores the role of soccer at a time of transition from autocratic rule to a more open society. It also features James’s daily political comment on the region’s developments. Contact: incoherentblog@gmail.comView my complete profile