Fantasy Baseball: Return of Alex Rodriguez creating worries

Sunday

Jul 21, 2013 at 6:00 AM

Josh Bousquet Fantasy Baseball

Now that the All-Star Game has passed, it is time for baseball pundits to turn their attention from the nostalgia of the half that passed to predictions of the one to come. Because, hey look, it's a chance to do better than we did the first time.

So everyone has to speak of the pending ending of the Biogenesis saga. In the grand scheme of things, this may be the biggest story when we look back on the season in 20 years, but any penalties that Major League Baseball hands down probably will not be served until 2014, so it does not look like fantasy owners have to worry about it at the moment.

The sexiest name connected to the scandal is the Yankees' Alex Rodriguez, but fantasy owners are more worried that his major league return is slated for Monday.

Between playing again and the PED scandal, his name will be everywhere, but, at only 20 percent ownership in ESPN leagues, he is available.

But should we use a roster spot on him before he proves something or should we worry that he pulls a Derek Jeter with a rapid return to the disabled list?

The answers: no and we can only hope.

Potential fantasy MVP Chris Davis is also involved in all these second-half look-aheads, as his first-half homer total of 37 puts him on pace for 62 blasts, the perfect number to spark debate. Davis himself has said that the only number worth taking aim at is Roger Maris' single-season total of 61, its non-steroid-aided nature giving it precedence.

This comes with its own level of controversy, though, which leads to no one fully taking it on. On ESPN.com, its baseball experts predicted Davis' final total from anywhere between 51 and 60.

That way one does not even need to say what they believe a tie with Maris would mean, and only one (Tim Kurkjian) was even willing to go to 60.

Maybe it is that everyone wants Davis to fall off, though, for that would allow the Miguel Cabrera to take another run at the Triple Crown. The Tigers slugger finished the first half tops in the American League in batting average (.365) and RBIs (95), but trailed Davis by seven homers.

Cabrera's Triple Crown season of 2012 probably didn't get the attention it deserved, so if he does it again, he would join Ted Williams and Rogers Hornsby as the only players to do it twice and give writers a chance to give Cabrera his deserved plaudits.

Even with last season's Triple Crown, there was talk of how Cabrera was not the clear American League MVP. When the votes were counted, he still was the decided victor, so maybe the looks toward Mike Trout just came out of a contrarian impulse.

Now that people know Trout, however, he can no longer be touted as the dark-horse candidate, so his name is coming up much less this year in general coverage. Fantasy owners who jumped at him this year, though, are still thrilled with the youngster, as the numbers he is putting up compare well with last year's (see chart).

Slowly rising to fill the hole that Trout filled last year is Baltimore's Manny Machado; his 5.0 wins-above-replacement number trails only Cabrera in the AL. Machado's offensive numbers are not as overwhelming as Trout's were last season, but a .310 average with 57 runs, 7 homers, 45 RBIs and 6 steals isn't a bad half-season for someone who is only 21 years old.

If Machado can keep up his performance, he should absorb some of the waned enthusiasm from the Dodgers' Yasiel Puig.

It might be crazy to talk of the Dodgers' rookie outfielder as dropping off when he came out of the break still batting .391, but a hip injury and some slowdown since batting .436 in his first month in the majors have removed some of his luster.

Or maybe that's just people trying to be contrarians again and voting over and over for Freddie Freeman to go to the All-Star Game.

It will still be impossible to not want to pay attention to where Puig's numbers go by the end of the season, however, be one a contrarian or one who enjoys the optimism of youth.

Trying to gain that optimism of youth will dominate much of the baseball-talk landscape in the near future as teams without playoff dreams shuttle off some strong players in exchange for prospects from contending teams before the trade deadline.

Cubs starting pitcher Matt Garza appears to already be on the verge of getting a new address, one likely to be somewhere near Arlington, Texas.

So for those you in National League-only leagues, my apologies for your loss. It just goes to show that there is still excitement to come in these final 2-1/2 months.