A speedy case of carbon dating as old foes meet

By Royce Millar and Rafael Epstein

EARLY this month, some of Australia's biggest polluters sat down for talks with the woman regarded by some in their ranks as ''the devil incarnate'' - Greens senator Christine Milne.

Senator Milne's unprecedented meeting with the Energy Supply Association, which represents electricity generators such as Victoria's Hazelwood power station, was one of a series between energy intensive industries and the Greens. Shell Australia has also broken new ground, recently discussing carbon pricing with Greens leader Bob Brown.

Illustration: Tandberg.

''It's the beginning of a paradigm shift, a recognition it [a carbon price] is going to happen,'' Senator Milne said yesterday. Unthinkable in the past, such meetings say much about political power in the messy world of minority government, especially in the debate over a game-changer like a price on carbon.

With the race now on in earnest for influence over Prime Minister Julia Gillard's climate change strategy, lobbying tactics and targets have had to adapt, quickly.

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In the last sitting days before the government fleshes out its carbon price legislation, Parliament House this week was a frenzy of forums, rallies, discreet meetings, behind-hand chats in corridors and manic mobile phoning.

''We've noticed a significant upswing in activity over the past couple of months as the rubber has hit the road,'' says Justin di Lollo, managing director of Labor-linked lobbying powerhouse Hawker Britton. ''It's too important not to lobby.''

Especially challenging for polluting industries is that in 2011 the Greens and independents have replaced the Malcolm Turnbull-led conservatives as Labor's carbon partners.

As well as first meetings between old foes, the importance of the change in partners is reflected in the fact that Hawker Britton this month launched a specialist subsidiary, Independent Liaisons, devoted exclusively to lobbying those on the crossbenches.

The lobbying is frenzied. ''When Parliament sits, the joint is a zoo, but this is more full-on, a lot bigger, a lot of the big end of town, a lot of really well-timed conferences going on,'' says one insider.

And who gets the most face time with ministers? ''Big mining runs the joint,'' the insider says, because miners have the most cash.

Climate Change Minister Greg Combet has stated that the starting point for negotiations is the Rudd-Turnbull package from 2009. Some manufacturers are arguing for more help. Others, including some of the big electricity generators, will be happy just to hold the line.

''If the government's starting point with the Greens is the level of compensation agreed [in 2009] between Rudd and Turnbull, it can only go south from industry's point of view,'' said one resources industry insider.

BlueScope Steel chairman Graeme Kraehe grabbed headlines this week when he attacked the government's consultation process as a ''sham'', warning that the steel industry would be crippled compared to overseas manufacturers that do not face a similar carbon price.

This week Mr Combet expanded the list of companies formally within his consultation process. But many of those doing the rounds of Parliament House remain unimpressed. They are turning up to meetings with ministers with their executives, frustrated by a lack of detail. But they say they're ''keeping their powder dry … and not throwing our toys out of the cot yet''.

If polite, round-table diplomacy is the first front for big names such as Alcoa and Rio Tinto, is there a Plan B reminiscent of the resource rent tax campaign?

''There's no drumbeat of war or secret meetings planning campaigns or anything like that,'' said a senior mining lobbyist. ''But I would say there would be a fair degree of anger if policy was made to appease the Greens rather than to have an enduring outcome.''

The aluminium lobby group says there is still insufficient detail to assess how the Gillard model will affect the industry.

''I'm not rushing to judgment,'' said Aluminium Council executive director Miles Prosser.

The relative lack of shrill public protest from industry has been notable. Part of the explanation is that, unlike the haphazard nature of Kevin Rudd's, the process under Gillard has included business and civil society consultation..

While a few critics such as Mr Kraehe have been scathing about the round-table meetings - which have also left some environmentalists quietly unimpressed - more have accepted the process, at least while the detail of the Labor-Greens-independent scheme is being finalised.

In speaking to strategists and lobbyists in the mining, manufacturing, petrol and gas areas, it is clear industry is mindful of the fragility of minority government, of the fact that the government's demise is just one byelection away. One death or serious disillusionment could put an end both to Julia Gillard as prime minister and a carbon price in Australia.

And Tony Abbott is no certainty to survive until the next general poll. An alternative Liberal leader may have a very different view about carbon pricing. ''If I've learnt one thing about this sort of stuff in the past couple of years,'' says Mr Prosser, ''it is that it would be a mistake to start planning where you think things are going to go next. It is a very unpredictable debate.''

- At the first public forum of the new Climate Commission in Geelong, Australia's leading climate scientist said there was no debate in the scientific community about whether climate change is driven by human behaviour. Professor Will Steffen said that while a tiny rump of climate change sceptics received prominent media attention ''the scientific community is more than 90 per cent certain that climate change is not natural, and that's as close to a consensus as you'll get among scientists''.