The Economic Impact of Leaving the EU

A vote to leave the EU would represent a significant shock to the UK economy

In the short run, our analysis suggests it would lower GDP growth to 1.9 per cent in 2017, compared with a growth rate of 2.7 per cent in a world in which the UK voted to remain.

In the longer run, our analysis suggests that it would lower GDP by between 1.5 per cent and 7.8 per cent in 2030, also compared with a world in which the UK voted to remain.

Sterling would also depreciate in the longer-run, to close to parity with the euro by 2030.

By 2030, consumption would fall by between 2.4 per cent and 9.2 per cent compared to a world in which the UK remained in the EU. This translates into declines in annual consumption per capita of between £500 and £2,000 (at 2012 prices) by 2030.