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NCAAF Picks

The Bedlam Series is always critical to the final Big 12 standings, and this year is no different with No. 6 Oklahoma a national champion contender. Expect fireworks. Our take on the state rivalry against Oklahoma State, and a look at the opening lines and trends off all the Week 11 conference action here.

Oklahoma (8-1 SU, 4-5 ATS), winner of 30 of the last 38 in the Bedlam Series, is just 12-4-1 SU and 5-12 ATS laying more than two touchdowns on the college football oddsboard since 1980. This is just the second time in the last 13 years the Sooners are gifting as many. Can Oklahoma State (5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS) stay competitive and top the number? The task is tough. This is just the second time in the last 10 years the Cowboys enter with a losing conference record.

Oklahoma State does not field an offense as strong as most in the Mike Gundy era. It’s posting 31.3 points per game against Big 12 competition. To put this into perspective, the program averaged 41-plus in two of the last three seasons.

Gundy still fields some dangerous weapons that can punish poor defenses, including WR Tylan Wallace and RB Justice Hill. Wallace and Hill are the second- and third-leading receiver (1,062 yards, 7 TDs) and rusher (776 yards, 7 TDs) in the conference. They’ll have to produce at elite levels to keep close to this Sooners outfit.

The Cowboys also will have to cut out the errors to stay competitive. They rank 126 out of 130 FBS teams with 80.5 penalty yards per game. They also own a below average -0.4 turnover margin. Oklahoma will have too many chances at the end zone if the current trends continue.

Sooners head coach Lincoln Riley is 5-1 SU and ATS at home against Big 12 foes with a 21.8 average margin of victory. He leads the squad to 49.0 points per game in this spot. The Cowboys present the most up-tempo attack of any foe yet. Their 46.38-percent time of possession is one of the lowest of any Power 5 team. Expect an up-tempo game that combines for more than 80 points. Pick ‘over’ for your best bet.

TCU at No. 7 West Virginia (-14.5), noon ET, on FS1: TCU (4-5 SU, 3-6 ATS) has dropped six of its last seven against the spread versus ranked teams dating back to October 2017, failing to cover a 1.8 average line by 9.2 points per game. The defense is allowing 35.1 points per tilt. West Virginia (7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS), meanwhile, has topped the number in two-thirds (8-4-1 ATS) of all Big 12 contests with Heisman hopeful Will Grier under center.

Kansas at Kansas State (-12), noon ET: Kansas State (3-6 SU, 5-4 ATS) is 19-4 SU and 17-6 ATS since 1994 in its quest for the Governor’s Cup versus state rivals Kansas (3-6 SU, 4-5 ATS). The Jayhawks have covered the last two meetings, however.

Baylor at No. 23 Iowa State (-14.5), 3:30 p.m. ET, on FS1: Iowa State (5-3 SU, 6-2 ATS) is an astonishing 18-5-1 ATS (78.3 percent) against Big 12 competition since Matt Campbell took over as head coach, covering eight straight contests. Look for a potential offensive explosion out of the Cyclones. Since 2017, Baylor (5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS) yields 45.4 points per game as a road underdog, including 66, 23, and 58 in three contests during the current campaign.

No. 15 Texas at Texas Tech (Pick ‘em), 7:30 p.m. ET, on FOX: Since 2017, ranked Big 12 road teams are 4-13-1 ATS facing off against unranked conference foes. With a line in-between 6 points, visitors have claimed just one victory out of six games. No. 15 Texas (6-3 SU, 3-6 ATS) and Texas Tech (5-4 SU, 6-3 ATS) are within a couple points on the board depending on the online sportsbook.