Monday, 4 August 2014

Has the Israeli counter-offensive to end the intense Hamas Rocket offensive, bombarding Arab and Jewish homes and towns, really worked ?

7 days=July 17 to July 23= average 114 Rockets per day hit Israel [ excluding both Mortar rounds fired and also any Rockets falling within Gaza ].

10 days= July 24 to Aug 2 = 57 Rockets on average per day [ again excluding both Mortar shells fired and Rockets falling short within Gaza ].

Rocket firing HALVED.

But the ongoing bombardment shows both [a] how vast must be the remaining Hamas arsenal, as well as [b] their savage determination to terrorize civilians in Israel - and no matter the price paid by their own people in Gaza

Had the Easter Rising in April 1916 in Dublin City pro-rata killed as many civilians,all innocent Dublin bystanders, as Gaza in 2014, what would have happened ?

At the very MAX [ and counting 589 unknown casualties as well as 452 identified civilians in Gaza ] over 27 days fighting, in a place with 4.5 times more people than Dublin in 1916, the civilian dead - at MAX - are 2.142 per 100,000 per day = only 51 killed in Dublin in 1916.

How many were actually killed in 1916 ?

224 civilians. Including many children - from the youngest at 2 years and 10 months, upwards.

Tragically 452 civilians have been identified among Gaza dead, plus 589 unknown= 1,041 MAX possible civilian dead, some of whom must be casualties of Hamas Rockets falling short within Gaza, but with 4,574 IDF air counter-strikes to destroy the vast Hamas offensive Rocket arsenal, which todate has fired 2,555 Rockets into Israel aimed at ARAB and Jewish homes and towns, that is - at MAX - 5 civilians dead for every 22 air-strikes.

5 dead for every 22 strikes.

Indeed truly tragic, but in no way reckless or indiscriminate firing by IDF - and clearly targeting not Arab civilians, but the Hamas terror infrastructure, as well as killing - at least - 407 identified Hamas and other terrorists.

Were both therefore *war-criminals* ?
And the 1,200 Dubliners in the Irish Volunteers ?
And the other Dubliners fighting them in the RDF -Royal Dublin Fusiliers ?

And in 1944 in Nazi-Occupied Normandy, in the Liberation by the Allies from D-Day, the official French estimate is that just 20,000 French civilian were killed - because [ as in Gaza with Hamas ] the Nazis fought in the midst of civilians.
Were the Allies *war-criminals* ?

In 1916, with 224 civilians killed in 6 days of fighting, in a city of 400,000, that is 9.33 civilians killed per 100,000 per day.

In Gaza, with 4.5 times as many people [ 1.8 M ] and with 24 days fighting up to and including July 31, that 1916 rate in Dublin equals 4,031 civilians killed.

4,031 innocent bystanders killed.

Over 2.5 times the very highest possible claim.

The worst claims I heard suggested that up to 75-80% of the dead might be civilian, or that up to 1400-1500 might have been killed overall [ no breakdown as to how many were Hamas, PIJ etc ] - EVEN if all that were true, it still amounts to a rate of 2.78 per 100,000 people per day - truly tragic, but 1916 [ at 9.33 per 100,000 per day ] was over THREE times [ in fact 3.356 times ] WORSE.

Are the IDF = Israeli Defence Forces *war-criminals* ?
Then Pearse and Connolly in 1916 were - but 3 times worse.

And the Allies in 1944.

OR else, is it simply the tragic historical truth NO modern Army has ever been able to avoid civilian casualties when forced to engage in FIBUA [ fighting in built-up areas ] ?

1. Hamas claim that 1,360 have been killed [ but no mention of how many by Hamas or PIJ or by other terrorist fire ]

2. Israel has launched over 4,200 strikes.

3. Analysis of first 152 dead shows that 71 = 46.72% were Hamas , PIJ or other terrorists, which means that even if both [a] all the dead had been killed by IDF fire [ which is simply not credible ], and [b] they also really came to 1,360, even then only 1 civilian had died for every 6 IDF strikes.