Tigers' closer question persists: If not Valverde, who? Depends on whose advice they take

By MATTHEW B. MOWERY

Wednesday, November 7, 2012

DETROIT -- It all depends on whose advice you trust. Is it the doctors? The scouts? The minor league development folks? The coaching staff? In a way, that's what the ubiquitous question of the postseason -- "Who will be the closer, if not Jose Valverde?" -- has morphed into in the offseason.

The Tigers have already said that they will not be bringing back Valverde to be their primary closer for the 2013 season, begging the same question as the coaches, manager and players had to constantly field after the meltdown suffered by their previously reliable closer.

If not him, who?

And the answer to that now depends on who the front office trusts most.

It was an answer that general manager Dave Dombrowski did not have an answer to when he announced shortly after the conclusion of the playoffs that they'd not be attempting to bring back the free-agent reliever.

"Papa Grande's case, I do not think we'll be pursuing him to re-sign him," Dombrowski said at his after-season review news conference. "We told him that, thankful again for what he's done. He's done a very good job for us over the last three years. Very fine individual, brought a lot to the clubhouse, great person, and despite a tough finish, really did a fine job for us throughout his career."

That sentiment was echoed by manager Jim Leyland, who tried to cushion his closer from as much of the glare of the spotlight as he could, an outgrowth of the unique relationship between the two very different men.

"I've never had a player that I've had more respect for than Jose Valverde. It broke my heart the way it kind of ended for him because he took some beating and that's only natural," said the manager, who spoke to all the impending free agents at the end of the World Series. "I had good relationships with those guys, particularly Valverde. He was tremendous. Fun to be around and a real pleasant personality. Takes good care of his mom. A great guy. I'm serious. People probably think he's a little bit different, but he's a tremendous guy and I'm really going to miss him."

But now, the plan has to change, after the 2011 Rolaids Relief Man of the Year was unable to finish an inning in any of his final three outings with the club, blowing a save in one, and a four-run lead in another. His postseason ERA was a ghastly 30.34.

If not him, though ... well, who?

That answer depends on how the Tigers choose to deal with the vacancy.

They could promote internally, with someone already on the squad, or they could go with a closer-by-committee approach, like they did in the playoffs.

They could pony up the big money and sign the one and only true lock-down closer on the market, New York's Rafael Soriano, or they could take a gamble on one of the lesser free agents, who are returning from injury.

They could get a stop-gap guy that would plug the hole for the moment, giving them more time to look at the problem.

Or they could simply accelerate the learning curve of the closer of the future, Bruce Rondon.

The answer, again, depends on who Dombrowski wants to listen to.

If the coaching staff thinks someone is ready, they could tab that person. It could be Joaquin Benoit, the current set-up man, or Phil Coke, the lefty who handled closing out games in the playoffs. It could be Octavio Dotel, the veteran whose contract option the Tigers picked up last week. It could be a youngster like Al Alburquerque, who appears to be back from elbow surgery last offseason, or the talented-but-erratic Brayan Villarreal.

Or, it could be all of the above, by committee, with the manager merely dialing up whichever option fits the situation on a given night.

"As long as you know what you have, (a committee is) not bad at all. I've handled those situations before, but who's to say we won't have a closer? I think we will have a closer. I think it might be a surprise closer, but I think we might have one. And I'm not talking about Phil Coke, by the way. Not that I don't like Phil Coke," Leyland said. "Rondon's a good name. Here's a kid, who knows? Believe me, I'm not putting my blessing on Rondon as a closer for next year, but I'm just mentioning that name as a possibility. When you've got an arm like that, that's a possibility. Now, could he handle it mentally, could he handle it in a three-tier stadium with the bright lights? I don't have a clue. But we'll find somebody."

If the Tigers want to spend the money and forget about the problem, they could dive head-first into the deep end of the free-agent market, and go after Soriano. Benoit set up for Soriano in Tampa Bay in 2010, before both left for free-agent deals elsewhere. Soriano filled in for Yankees legend Mariano Rivera this season, and was tied for third in all of baseball with 42 saves.

On the advice of agent Scott Boras -- who has inked many a deal with the Tigers -- Soriano opted out of the final year of his three-year contract in New York, intent on breaking the bank in free agency. He'll probably cost easily $13-15 million a year for the team that signs him.

That's awfully rich, almost double the average of $7.62 million the Tigers paid Valverde over three seasons, two of them All-Star caliber.

And the market is bound to be competitive, since the Tigers are hardly the only team looking to improve at the closer spot.

There are more cost-effective options in free agency. The Tigers could go after proven closer-types like Ryan Madson or Joakim Soria.

Problem No. 1: Both guys are coming off Tommy John surgery, which cost them most of last season. That's why Dombrowski would really have to trust the team doctors to lavish either with a risky deal.

Problem No. 2: If they're still in the process of recovering surgery, and conceivably are not 100 percent until partway through next season, that doesn't really solve the Tigers' main problem of figuring out who is going to close right now.

Realistically, that's the only question, since long term, the Tigers feel like they have a perfectly good closer-in-waiting in the system in Rondon.

The organization's Minor League Pitcher of the Year in 2012, the burly Rondon zipped through the system, starting at Class A Lakeland, moving to Double-A Erie and finishing the season at Triple-A Toledo. He legitimately averages 100 mph on his fastball, evoking comparisons to former Tiger Joel Zumaya, once another "closer-in-waiting" for the organization.

"I would not discount Bruce Rondon in the competition for our closer role for next year. I'm not saying he's going to be our closer but I do not discount him in that role," Dombrowski said of the fireballer, who they'd considered bringing up for the playoffs. "This guy is a special potential closer with the makeup of a closer, and normally you're not going to thrust that in a young guy's hands and say automatically, 'It's your job' -- but it would not surprise me if he earned that job. With the number of good arms that are out there, there are not many arms like this, and he cherishes that type of role."

But is he ready?

Nobody knows the answer to that question.

"I'll figure out how to do it. And it could be one of many, if Rondon is not ready to handle it. I'm not putting Rondon at the top of the list, I'm putting Rondon in the mix," Leyland said. "Because I don't know what he's liable to do. I mean, he might not throw it in the ocean."

Leaving loose ends hanging is not the normal M.O. for a meticulous GM like Dombrowski.

This might be the rare case where he leaves a question unanswered for the time being, though.

"Well, I think you also have to be open-minded and flexible. It's just like a couple years ago when in 2006, (Justin) Verlander and Zumaya jumped up pretty good for us at that point," Dombrowski said. This guy (Rondon) is a talented guy. He's a rare talent. You would not believe the number of clubs that called me about Bruce Rondon to trade him. If I had a choice of any young closer in baseball to give an opportunity to in any organization, it would be him. Now would be ready? I don't know that. But he is that good."

Could the Tigers sign a place-holder for Rondon, a guy who holds the fort until he IS certifiably, undeniably, perfectly ready?

Maybe.

"The way I look at that is you go through the winter, you have various needs with your club and you set your priority levels. You try to address those priorities, but you look at players' talents. And If you see someone available that fits into what your price range is at any position, then you react at that point and make that decision. It would not be something that would happen early," Dombrowski said. "[I]t would have to really be the right scenario, right situation, guys fall through, where the dollars are spent, who else we sign, how much we spent, because it's not going to be something we do right away."

The scarcity of available free-agent solutions could force the Tigers to sit and wait, and see what develops. The backup plan, obviously, is going with what they already have.

But is there a scenario where that guy could be someone very, very familiar?

At least one person thinks so.

"It's hard to go out and get a closer, because when somebody's got a real good closer, they normally keep him. We've had a real good closer, and probably because of instances that have happened towards the end, it's probably better to let him test the market," Leyland said.

"I don't know if Dave touched on this, but there could be a chance, when all is said and done, if all of a sudden things fall through the cracks, Valverde might be available at some type of a role.

"Maybe Dave has totally ruled it out. But I don't think -- I think there's a possibility. You think these guys are just going to go out, and everybody's going to be after them, and will give them what they want, and everybody's happy ever after. It doesn't work that way. There's a lot of times you get a guy late that, for whatever reason, people didn't really go for him like you thought. And you might get him for the price you want, and all of a sudden, you got something."

Email Matthew B. Mowery at matt.mowery@oakpress.com and follow him on Twitter @matthewbmowery. Text keyword "Tigers" to 22700 to get updates sent to your phone. Msg & data rates may apply. Text HELP for help. Text STOP to cancel.