Weekly Newsletter

How many Oscar nominations can ‘Hobbit’ hope for Thursday?

The predictions are plentiful. Everybody with a keyboard and a website seems to know the secret formula for which films the Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences will announce Thursday morning as the nominations for the organization’s 2012 Oscars.

“The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey,” will probably be heard as from either actress Emma Stone or Seth MacFarlane as they announce the nominations. The winners will be announced on a widely watched television broadcast most people call “The Oscars,” known also as the 85th Academy Awards®, on Sunday, February 24. Coincidentally, (or maybe not!) TheOneRing.net will be hosting a part that same night in Hollywood with food, music and entertainment. (In fact, you should come celebrate film with us!) MacFarlane will also host the show that night for the television audience.

But back to those predictions.

If the experts can be believed, “The Hobbit” has one of its best chances for a win with Best Visual Effects. There is already a short list of nominees to help narrow down the field. “The Hobbit,” is in the running with nine other films, five of which will receive nominations. The other films with the strongest chance for a nomination and win is believed to be “The Life of Pi.”

The other category “The Hobbit” looks especially strong in: Best Makeup and Hairstyling. The field has been narrowed here as well with seven films contending for three spots. Most agree that the likely leaders are:

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Miserables
Lincoln

The rest of the field
Hitchcock
Looper
Men in Black 3
Snow White and the Huntsman.

After those two awards, things get less sure for the folks who worked on “The Hobbit.” Lets go through the whole list and then present a tally at the end. Remember, these are not my predictions nor my report of what I think deserves nominations, only what I gather to be most likely from polling many of the internet websites. After each category listing a brief summary of projected chances for “The Hobbit.” All categories are listed for reader information.

BEST PICTURE – Only a very outside chance and if this happens, it would be the biggest story of the entertainment day.

BEST DIRECTOR – Virtually no chance.

BEST ACTOR – The reality is, despite excellent performances, Martin Freeman, Richard Armitage and Ian McKellen are not even in the nomination discussion.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY – Made some lists but would be a shocking nomination.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM – NA

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE – NA

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE – NA

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY – It has mentions but this would be surprising.

BEST FILM EDITING – Discussed, but not a serious contender and would be a shocker.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN – This is a possibility for Dan Hennah and Ra Vincent but it isn’t favored. Fantasy has a difficult time competing against period pieces.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN – Has a chance but is predicted to finish just outside the top five nominations. See fantasy vs. period pieces above.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG – This doesn’t look good but it isn’t impossible.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE – This is a long shot but not a no shot.

BEST SOUND MIXING – In a banner year for sound, this might be a very near miss but is a real possibility.

BEST SOUND EDITING – In a banner year for sound, this might be a very near miss but is a real possibility. Is there an echo in here?

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS – See above.

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING – See above.

So if things go well, “The Hobbit,” could hope for nominations for makeup, effects, one or two sound categories and production design and costumes. Six nominations would be a shocking, better-than-predicted showing. Any more than that would be monumental. Less than two nominations would be a disappointment but it is possible the film could be shut out. Effects and makeup at least appear to be near locks. Between two and four noms is most likely.

Stone and MacFarlane will reveal it all at 5:30 a.m. California time tomorrow.

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