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MONTREAL - Is early achievement in sport a harbinger of future success? Or, is the road to the Olympics littered with former champions who failed to make the cut? Assistant professor Robert Chapman and graduate student Joshua Foss, both from the kinesiology department in the School of Public Health at Indiana University, addressed both questions in a study of junior and senior athletes.

The study analyzed the career performances of the top eight male and top eight female finishers in the 2000 World Junior Track and Field Championships (65 men and 64 women) and the 2000 Olympic Games (64 men and 64 women). Events included the 100m and 200m sprints, the 1500m and 5000m runs, long jump, high jump, discus and shot put. The time span covered 12 years after the junior event and 12 years of data both before and after the 2000 Olympics.

Chapman and Foss looked at the age each athlete achieved their lifetime best performance, the improvement from junior to lifetime best results and the frequency with which athletes won junior and senior medals.

What they discovered is that track athletes who succeed at 18 and 19 years of age don't necessarily carry that success into the senior level. In fact, top junior athletes (defined as under-20 years of age) accomplish their lifetime best performance at a significantly younger age than top senior athletes, with most failing to improve to a level required for success at the senior level.

There are several reasons why a young athlete may not be able to sustain their athletic achievements into their early 20s. Burnout and overuse is a possibility, especially in this age of early sport specialization, but Chapman thinks the primary reason has to do with how early or late an athlete matures physically.

Chapman says athletes who mature early are bigger and stronger than the majority of the competition, which means they can run faster, jump higher and throw farther. It also means they receive more attention from coaches and get more reps during practices, games and meets.

"We've all seen examples of the 13-year-old man/child who excels in hockey and football," Chapman said.

Despite their physiological advantages, most of these successful junior athletes see their improvement peak before they reach 21, with only 23.6 per cent going on to win a medal in the Olympics. The late bloomers, on the other hand, are more likely to peak at around 26 years of age and are almost all late to mature.

Before you worry that your young athlete isn't likely to translate early success into Olympic gold, silver or bronze, Chapman is quick to point out that these statistics are based on sports that demand good physiology like track and field, biathlon, rowing and triathlon rather that those that are highly technical like diving, gymnastics and figure skating.

Mitch Geller, chief technical officer and high performance director of Diving Canada, says 80 to 90 per cent of divers who excel at junior level go on to become high-achieving Olympians. Émilie Heymans, the only Canadian to have won medals at four Olympic Games, won the World Junior Championships.

And who can forget Alexandre Despatie, who at 13 won gold at the 1998 Commonwealth Games and silver in the 2004 and 2008 Olympic Games at 19 and 23 years of age, respectively.

"Most future Olympians (divers) are spotted at 14 or 15 years of age," Geller said.

Geller believes that Chapman and Foss's findings are more pertinent to late specialization sports like track and field, versus early specialization sports like diving. And he says late maturers tend to have longer limbs and a higher centre of gravity, which describes the body types of rowers, track athletes and many swimmers versus the shorter limbs and statures of divers and gymnasts.

What does this mean for the average young athlete with Olympic dreams? Don't despair if you're not on the podium in your junior years. Work hard, stay healthy and keep at it. Your best years are still ahead of you.

"If you're not particularly successful as a junior athlete, that doesn't mean you can't be a successful senior athlete," Chapman said.

As for parents of athletes who are losing to bigger, stronger competitors of a similar age, stay positive and encouraging as success may still be in the cards.

Chapman says the findings should also be of interest to national sporting organizations looking to maximize their investment in long-term athlete development.

"Should Athletics Canada invest in their junior teams in hopes that they will develop into successful senior athletes?" Chapman asked. "Or should they ... invest in their senior athletes who are more likely to win a medal?"

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