Earlier today, the Anaheim Ducks signed Andrew Cogliano to a three-year contract worth $2.39 million per season. Lowetide’s take on it is here, and he makes a quick comment on the Oilogosphere in the piece:

As an aside, if Steve Tambellini had signed this contract, I suspect Oiler Nation would be rushing to the internet to express their displeasure at the signing.

I think that deserves comment.

First off, I think it’s worth comparing the Cogliano contract to a couple of others. Ideally, these contracts would be to restricted free agent forwards, the players would be about the same age, and ideally they’d be signed this summer. Fortunately, we have two such examples to look at: Blake Wheeler and Michael Frolik.

Blake Wheeler: Two years, $2.55 million cap hit

Andrew Cogliano: Three years, $2.39 million cap hit

Michael Frolik: Three years, $2.33 million cap hit

How do those players compare, given that their age, status and contract situations are all similar?

Cogliano scored 45 points as a rookie, and recorded 18 goals each of his first two seasons – thanks to a shooting percentage more than twice as high as he’s recorded in either of the last two seasons (where he’s scored 10 and 11 goals respectively). The question is whether his first two seasons or the last two seasons better represent his NHL ability; given the fact that recent results deserve more weight and that Cogliano’s shooting percentage was insanely good the first two years, I’d bet on the latter. If that’s the case, than while Cogliano’s game has come along, offensively he’s not likely to be a game-breaker. Over the last two seasons, he’s scored 1.39 and 1.33 points for every 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play.

Blake Wheeler, on the other hand, has scored 18, 18 and 21 goals over the last three years. His goal-scoring the last two years hasn’t been attributable to shooting percentage, and while he’s played a somewhat similar role to Cogliano on the depth chart (i.e. complementary forward) he’s been a far better scorer, topping the 2.00 points per 60 mark two of the last three seasons (including 2010-11, where he managed 2.20 points per 60).

Michael Frolik is far and away the most complete player of the three. He’s recorded between 38 and 45 points over the last three years. In two of the last three years, he’s topped the 20-goal plateau; last year he finished with 11 goals thanks to a massive drop in shooting percentage (an 8.4% career shooter, Frolik scored at just a 4.4% clip last season). He played on a tough minutes line with Stephen Weiss and Nathan Horton as a sophomore, and saw an unusual amount of quality opponents with Weiss as a rookie. He recorded 1.73 points per 60 last season, and while he’s not the scorer that Wheeler is, he’s better than Cogliano.

In short: Anaheim probably overpaid for Cogliano, relative to the market. Other restricted free agents in the same age range but with a better track record got almost identical dollars and terms, and while Cogliano might grow into the contract he probably isn’t there yet.

The dollar figure on Cogliano’s new contract makes Steve Tambellini look better for trading him. We might present it as a choice, one between Eric Belanger and a second round pick as well as roughly $700,000 in savings, or Andrew Cogliano. Given that Belanger’s the better player, cheaper, was available at no cost other than money, and most importantly fits team needs better, that’s a great choice.

Even so, on a rebuilding team, it may not have been an easy one to make. Trading Cogliano is a risk; he’s young, has scored in the past, has blazing speed and rarely left anyone questioning his effort level. He’s also been exceptionally durable.

Personally, I think it’s a smart risk. The Oilers have, in the past, been reluctant to sever ties with far worse players than Cogliano. Steve Tambellini made a smart choice here, and given that I’d be criticizing the signing (had he made it), it’s only fair that I acknowledge his strong asset management in this instance.

Jonathan Willis is a freelance writer.
He currently works for Oilers Nation, Sportsnet, the Edmonton Journal and Bleacher Report.
He's co-written three books and worked for myriad websites, including Grantland, ESPN, The Score, and Hockey Prospectus. He was previously the founder and managing editor of Copper & Blue.

What does that have to do with the article?I hope someone gives you a FIST...JK JK...kinda #nohardfeeling #RINGDING

Yeah i'm glad i'm not the only one thinking this. Cogs, no matter how much i like him, just didnt have a place anymore with the oilers. Too many small guys and we have bigger guys who have comparable skills ala Lander

But would you pay more for the abilities of Wheeler, Frolik or Cogliano, given that all are young complementary forwards and all paid roughly the same?

They aren't the same kind of player, but they play remarkably similar minutes and I'd much rather send out the first two than Cogliano.

If I had to overpay two of those 3 players, I'd pick Wheeler and Frokik, but I'm not entirely sure what the point/question was - I'm giddishly tired right now, and I'm questioning why the heII I'm still up.

Agree with JW.
It's a win-win.
Oilers' moves have a much better chance of paying off and Cogliano - who seems like a good kid - gets overpaid after being underpaid here in Edmonton (at least compared to what Brule, Gags, POS, etc. were getting); more importantly, he gets 3 years of security.

The only probable loser here is Anaheim; but we already knew that when they signed JDD to a weird one-way (in his 2nd year) contract.

Good luck to Cogliano. Getting that contract from LA leads me to believe that his agent should be our Federal Finance minister. With the player's obvious shortcomings that is a generous deal. Lombardi must realize he has the Sword of Damocles hanging over his neck right about now. Overpaying Andrew Cogliano seems to me to be a questionable call. Cogliano gets there as fast as anyone in the league but when you can't finish the job upon arrival I wonder how well he'll do offensively.

In my opinion, Lombardi's desperation and overpayment of Cogliano's contract doesn't necessarily translate into goal production for LA.

I find it somewhat amusing that some commenters feel that Lombardi's relatively generous contract terms makes the decision to trade him by the Oil questionable.

The only error made by the Oil was drafting too many small skilled forwards and now they are trying to go in a new direction.

If you're judging the worth (or lack of) this contract based on past performance, should you not also be taking into account the linemates Cogliano has had the past two years?

I bet you'd find Wheeler and Frolik had far superior support than Cogliano. And I'd also bet his new employers are thinking the same thing too.

The problem with the Oilers is that for whatever reason, they've decided it's OK to break in a half dozen prospects and junior players at once. Cogliano developed properly would have been teamed with actual decent NHL'ers. Here he was given scrubs and rejects more often than not, which I'll wager hindered his development by killing his confidence.

The Ducks are making the bet that Cogliano with a new lease on his career and supported by a team philosophy that actually has winning as its primary objective will turn into the guy he was supposed to be here.

Totally agree with Lowetide. If Tambo did this deal it would be a Monty Python Witch Burning within 5 minutes.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zrzMhU_4m-g

This contract is more of the Ducks rewarding Cogliano for the player they hope he becomes, not the player he is today. As for the Oilers, we have done enough of this in the past. Probably turns out to be a good decision for both the Oilers and the Ducks.

Way over paid... so glad we got rid of Cogs.. he's a good guy.. but if this is the cash he was looking for from the Oilers then it's too much... He should be getting 40-50 points every season minimum in my eyes for that cash and he's nowhere near that...

Somewhat agree with David S. Cogs is going to a team with more playing depth and a more developed atmosphere as a cohesive team. The Oilers are getting there and should be there within 2-3 seasons. The other issue at play though (and this affects the whole team) is that the Oil has been decimated by injuries every season for the last 3-4 years, mostly to the teams stars and leaders. Because of that they have to fill in these spots with the call-ups. It's hard to develop that team chemistry with your leaders and best players when they aren't playing and knowing that those call-ups can be sent down at any time. That being said though, a really good player can play with anyone. I say in 3 years Cogs will be playing close to the level that was expected of him when he was drafted.

Good comparables, Willis. Cogliano, Wheeler, and Frolik are all food young players who have been traded by the team that drafted them within the last six months.

Maybe it's a good sign that as good as they all are, none of them would be good enough to be guaranteed a spot on the wing on any of the Oilers' top 3 lines. This is why Ray Shero is a genius: there is an abundance of fast wingers in the NHL. You can commit less than $2.5M to them as they're effectively interchangeable.

Good summer all around, maybe he's a better GM then I've been giving him credit for and he was in fact tanking last year.

Good deal, someone had to go because there just wasn't anymore room. It was either him or Brule and they couldn't trade or buyout Brule in the end. And if that is the price he was asking Tambo for I think that was a no go for him.

Based on the Oilers roster today, I think I'd honestly take Jones at 1.5 over Cogs at 2.4.

I think we need a averge or bigger winger that plays with a bit of an edge and can score a bit over a small center that is good defensively and on the PK and can score a bit but can't win a FO and brings no physical element.

I also don't buy into the whole Jones is the worst player in the NHL based on one year of SC against data though.

Good deal, someone had to go because there just wasn't anymore room. It was either him or Brule and they couldn't trade or buyout Brule in the end. And if that is the price he was asking Tambo for I think that was a no go for him.

I agree Tambo is turning onto a real GM and not just a concept.

I didn't say he was turning into a real GM, he's dug a huge hole and still has a long way to go to get out of it.

Would you rather have Jones at $1.5 million or Cogliano at $2.4, given their respective upsides?

I'd say the overpay is pretty comparable in each case (say ~500K) but Cogliano's got upside.

I think the issues was that Jones became a fan favorite so Tambo signed just to keep everyone happy. I would take Cogs over Jones anyday. I've never seen a player that can't seem to stay on his feet like Jones. Even when noone is around him he seems to fall. I think the fans might be very disappointed this coming season with Jone's performance.

I kind of agree with you. We spent four years turning him into the pro that he is just to flip him for another question mark that we'll have to develop.

But that's the reality of the CBA. You get 6 or 7 years to determine whether you want to retain a player for big bucks, or you can cash out early for another spin of the wheel.

I think Asset Management the right term here. Cogs could've been signed to a 2-year deal, played 4th line minutes, and walked as a UFA in 2013. Instead ST acknowledged that there wasn't a place for him given our plethora of wingers who slot ahead of him, and cashed him out.

Yeah, I thought 2 Mill would be the high end for Cogs, and as it turns out he has a contract that escalates over his three years all above that number.

He was my Star last year so I wish him well, but I have to think that the contract is more of a gamble than a reflection of his current worth. Who knows though, it's not like the Oil havent moved away young players that turn out to be good pros before.

I feel pretty good about the return considering the team obviously didnt have room for him at all and needed the contract/roster space. He was buried on the depth chart and on the verge of moving even further down in the very near future with RNH and Lander in the fold, but even without those guys he was #4 on the NHL chart. If the team had properly recognized that Cogliano had very little future at Centre with the Oil and stuck him on the wing all of last season to see if he can learn that position then he might still be here, but even that is a guess.

I kind of agree with you. We spent four years turning him into the pro that he is just to flip him for another question mark that we'll have to develop.

But that's the reality of the CBA. You get 6 or 7 years to determine whether you want to retain a player for big bucks, or you can cash out early for another spin of the wheel.

I think Asset Management the right term here. Cogs could've been signed to a 2-year deal, played 4th line minutes, and walked as a UFA in 2013. Instead ST acknowledged that there wasn't a place for him given our plethora of wingers who slot ahead of him, and cashed him out.

It also isn't very hard to pick up "Cogliano's" for nothing on the FA market.

We just picked up a superior Cogs for nothing (asset wise) and traded our inferior Cogliano for a decent asset.

The move had to be made with one of our forwards, and based on the price Cogs was asking for, and the term, this move makes sense. The term would have brought his bloated salary (at this point) into the year when he need to re-up our young stars. That could have caused potential problems, and given the choices I would way rather save room for them instead of an underwhelming former top pick. Not bashing Cogs, but he didn't turn into a world-beater as a 1st round pick. Instead of calling him Marchant 'with hands' as he was originally cast, we were left to hoping he 'turned into' a Marchant-type.

I do wish Cogs all the best with his new team; hopefully he can cover Anaheim's bet. Personally, I'm glad we kept Gilbert Brule instead. I think he has bigger upside, hits a ton, and if he does get healthy one day we've got ourselves a real solid player there... and a complete player, at that!

(As a side note it's interesting to see the kid line from four years ago and how they have fared now...I was hoping for big things from the young Nilsson, as I had grown up cheering for his dad back in the day!)

After watching that clip, I realize how much I miss Pitkanen. He may not always be a gamer, but watching his skill was pure pleasure. I remember the one goal where he got pass in the neutral zone, got on his horse, split two Red Wing defenders, took a snapper from the hash and went shelf.
http://video.oilers.nhl.com/videocenter/console?hlp=8470137

I remember pinching myself and thinking, this must be 1985 and I`m watching Paul Coffey. But I learned hes a player who likes to tease you once in awhile with moments of brillence and the rest of the time hes average. Pitkanen with his skill seems like he should be a better player. The guy can skate like a deer, has a hard accurate shot, great vision, but he just doesn`t seem like he can get to that elite level....

dawgbone, where was he going to play. What wing was he going to play on. He was a 3rd/ 4rth liner on the worst hockey team in the league. The Oilers were not going to pay him more then 1.5-1.8 per, which Tambo would of got roasted for if had he signed him for anywhere close to what an arbitrator was going to award him. They knew the marketplace and that in arbitration he would be awarded anywhere from 1.8-2.5 and they said lets get what we can, we got more complete players then Cogliano on the roster and waiting in the wings.

He`s terrible on the PP, because hes a player who scores on the rush, bad on PK because he can`t win draws. He`s a excellent even strength hockey player where most of his points are scored. The Oilers gave him 2 plus years to develop into a 3rd liner and at the end he plateau`d. The Oilers knew what Cogliano would bring the team They also know they can`t win with too many diminutive forwards, so they turned the page and they are a better hockey now.

The Oilers got Belanger to replace him, who is a better overall hockey player, and fills the Malholtra void, plus they got a second round pick. I call that good asset management, and we did not have to pay a guy 2.4 mil to loose faceoffs all year, and be our 10-12th forward.

To play Devil's advocate, wouldn't it have been better "asset management" to have signed him to a 3 year, 5 mil deal last summer*, and pumped his stats up with a bit more PP time this past season?

* Some might call this hindsight, and it would be if you weren't saying that at the time. Of course, it takes two parties to agree to a longer term deal than the one year Cogliano got, and we don't know that he was or wasn't willing to do that. I think it's reasonable to suggest he would have been for a 3 year deal, say, a 1.5 mil cap hit, but others might disagree. And they might be right (or wrong), we don't really have the necessary information to be definitive.

I dont know how badly that Cogliano 1st rounder was wasted. The Oilers got 4 cheap years and 328 games out of a player chosen 25th overall THEN they flipped him for a pick that could be as high as 31st (unlikely). He's probably played more games than the average 25th overall pick and then netted the Oil a 2nd rounder even though there was no place for him on the team at his given position.

That said, there are some really interesting players taken in the next 10 picks that followed him and even deeper into the 2nd and 3rd round that year.

Still, I think he covered the bet pretty well and was flipped for not much less than what he originally cost.

However, he was followed up in the draft by the following names: Downie, Neal, Vlasic, Stastny, Raymond, and Letang.

-Cogliano has Todd Marchant like speed, durability and a similar scoring touch so it's really a no brainer The Ducks making the deal with The Oil on the heels of Marchant retiring. Because the two players have similar styles, I think The Ducks are hoping Cogs can turn the corner and figure out his role as an NHL'er the way Marchant did.

-Good move on Tambos part. If Cogs were to get say $2million/season from The Oilers, he would have to become a 50%+ faceoff guy at least in order to justify the contract. Asking Cogs to reach that face off % is possibly asking too much from a guy who's been consistantly inconsistant in the dot. While Cogs is only 24 yrs old, how much more time do you give a guy to discover his game?
Good Luck Cogs!

- A few people have made reference to the Ryan Jones signing comparing Jones to Cogliano. I don't think the comparisons are fair. Jones is 3 years older, 3 inches taller, is more physical AND can take the odd faceoff. While he has to break through the sophomore jinx this year and break the 20 goal mark and possibly put up 20-25 assits, he's an effective player who seems to have found a role in a single full season. Cogliano after 4 years had yet to find that consistant playing style which would have justified a contract raise/extension.

dawgbone, where was he going to play. What wing was he going to play on. He was a 3rd/ 4rth liner on the worst hockey team in the league. The Oilers were not going to pay him more then 1.5-1.8 per, which Tambo would of got roasted for if had he signed him for anywhere close to what an arbitrator was going to award him. They knew the marketplace and that in arbitration he would be awarded anywhere from 1.8-2.5 and they said lets get what we can, we got more complete players then Cogliano on the roster and waiting in the wings.

He`s terrible on the PP, because hes a player who scores on the rush, bad on PK because he can`t win draws. He`s a excellent even strength hockey player where most of his points are scored. The Oilers gave him 2 plus years to develop into a 3rd liner and at the end he plateau`d. The Oilers knew what Cogliano would bring the team They also know they can`t win with too many diminutive forwards, so they turned the page and they are a better hockey now.

The Oilers got Belanger to replace him, who is a better overall hockey player, and fills the Malholtra void, plus they got a second round pick. I call that good asset management, and we did not have to pay a guy 2.4 mil to loose faceoffs all year, and be our 10-12th forward.

Left Wingers who are better than Cogliano: Smyth, Hall

Right Wingers who are better than Cogliano: Hemsky, Eberle

You can add Paajarvi and Omark to that group as well, though with Paajarvi that's more to do with potential than actually being a better player.

He's actually been one of the Oilers best players on the PK, despite his inability to win a draw (which he wouldn't have to take because he wouldn't be a centre any longer). And if he's an excellent even strength player (like you suggested), that's the exact reason why you keep him. Guys who can play at ES and kill penalties still hold a lot of value.

Yes, the Oilers brought in Belanger... but they've needed a Belanger since the idiotic Brodziak trade. They've needed another centre for years. That doesn't mean you add that centre and dump other players.

And this contract issue would have been avoided if they were smart enough to trade Brule last year instead of signing him to a ridiculous contract. I'd rather have Cogs at 1.8-2.0 than Brule.