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9/29/15

Through A Glass Darkly - FY2017 Budget Forecasting

It
begins. On September 18th the Board of Supervisors directed the county
administrator to prepare the proposed FY2017 budget at two options: the current
real property tax rate ($1.135) and the estimated equalized real property
tax rate ($1.115). With the current LCPS estimate for its budget, there is a
projected gap of $59.6 million at the current tax rate or $69.4 million at the
lowered tax rate.

At
A Glance

Preliminary
LCPS forecast needing an additional $77.8M in local funding

The increase is due not only to additional new enrollment but also because of forecast step increases, other compensation, VRS retirement benefits, healthcare, and the transportation fleet

The LCPS forecast does not include cost for full day kindergarten expansion, technology, or further reductions to class size

The LCPS forecast is not a budget

The Superintendent's presentation of the FY2017 budget to the School Board is on January 7, 2016

The
LCPS forecast and potential tax rates were discussed at the Finance Committee
meeting on September 8. “These numbers are a little scary but they have
been a little scary at this stage in the process in years past. It looks
like we may have a greater challenge this year because of the fund balance
situation,” said Supervisor Matt Letourneau (Dulles). “We will work through it.
In any case, these are the two scenarios that we should move forward on
and the board can make adjustments as needed.”

Loudoun
County Administrator Tim Hemstreet responded, “Traditionally, what has
happened at this stage we believe that revenues have been estimated
conservatively and expenditures are being estimated conservatively.
Typically, what happens is those numbers get closer as we get farther
into the process … At some point, I would say probably November or
December, if the gaps not closing I’m going to have to come back and ask you if
we keep the revenue guidance, what areas do you want us to pursue reductions
in, or is it across the board, or do you want us to target certain areas, how
do you want to do that. But traditionally the numbers will narrow before
we are at that point.”

The
final decisions on the LCPS budget and local funding will be made by the newly
elected School Board and Board of Supervisors in the coming year.