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Let's be realistic here

I'm starting to see some posts claiming we can expect to finish this season with 55-56 wins. As a founding member of the "sunshine brigade" I'm all for that, believe me. With Jax coming back to fill a huge gaping hole at the sf spot, and the emotional lift that could provide us, I do think the team will improve significantly (though perhaps not overnight - there are chemistry issues that will take a few games to work out).

But 55 games? Come on.

Currently at 20-19, the Pacers would have to go 35-8 to finish the season with 55 wins. How many of you honestly feel we're going to lose only 8 more games between now and April? Now, if Ron AND Jax were coming back, you might be able to convince me.

But right now this team is kind of a mess. JO's playing like an MVP but we've gone 4-6 in our last 10. The inconsistency in this team's intensity and quality of play has nothing to do with Jax being gone - it has to do with effort, smarts, coaching and mental toughness. NO team that can beat Miami on the road and Phoenix at home should be losing games to teams like New Orleans in the same week. And having Jax back, while giving us a chance for a strong run run in the playoffs, is not going to magically turn this team into the unstoppable force we all want it to be.

50 games is my goal. That's a 30-13 finish, which would still be one hell of a run and would maybe give us homecourt advantage in the first round. I could live with that.

Re: Let's be realistic here

And don't call me "Slick," tough guy.

EDIT: I'm just saying, let's be cautiously optimistic, hope for the best and see if Jax coming back (and just some consistency in the lineup) can set us up for a strong finish. But let's just not get carried away (btw Soup, I think your 45-or-so win prediction may be a little low - at least I hope so).

Re: Let's be realistic here

EDIT: I'm just saying, let's be cautiously optimistic, hope for the best and see if Jax coming back (and just some consistency in the lineup) can set us up for a strong finish. But let's just not get carried away (btw Soup, I think your 45-or-so win prediction may be a little low - at least I hope so).

Did I make that prediction already? Damn I am forgetful. Have I really said that?

Re: Let's be realistic here

Someone pointed out the 6th seed would have us avoid Detroit or Miami until the Finals. Considering everything would that be right? I thought for a while 50 wins might be in the mix but that would take about .700 ball or better. Pretty tall order. So I will go, maybe 48.

The best exercise of the human heart is reaching down and picking someone else up.

Re: Let's be realistic here

Someone pointed out the 6th seed would have us avoid Detroit or Miami until the Finals. Considering everything would that be right? I thought for a while 50 wins might be in the mix but that would take about .700 ball or better. Pretty tall order. So I will go, maybe 48.

Not true. Assuming the the Pistons and Heat finish #1 and #2 (doesn't matter which finishes where), if the Pacers are #6, they face #3 in the first round (Atlantic winner), then #2 in the second round, with #1 waiting in the ECF. We have to either finish #1, #2, or #7, or have the Cavs beat out the Pistons for the Central title, to avoid facing both Miami and Detroit in the playoffs.

Re: Let's be realistic here

I'd be absolutely ecstatic with 50 wins... at least until I looked at the brackets and see what that got us for the playoffs...

OTOH... I think there's a lot of needed to make even 50 wins.

The conventional wisdom on these boards has been falling flat almost at every turn. First the team won 3 of 4 coming out of the suspension which was surprising. Then they nose-dived and weren't able to play .500 ball meaning we needed every bit of our pad and those 3 early suspension wins.

Then the thinking was we get JO back and start putting this in the rear view mirror. We get JO back sooner than we thought and things look promising... for a bit... and then we end up losing games we shouldn't, getting blown out in some games, and fighting just to stay ahead of .500

But now says we'll put it all together with Sjax coming back and go on a tear.

If that type of thinking works out how it previously did then I think we can reel in the 50-55 game win predictions and just hope we can make a nice little run at the end (when we have to hope chemistry comes together) and try and finish a few games over .500. 44-46... with a shot at 48.

This season was thrown into chaos and expecting anything but chaotic results is wishful thinking. I don't think getting SJax back will make an immediate consistent impact. I'm just hoping after a few games we can start seeing some consistency in play and after a few more that leads to some consistency in the win column.

-Bball

Nuntius was right. I was wrong. Frank Vogel has retained his job.

------

"A player who makes a team great is more valuable than a great player. Losing yourself in the group, for the good of the group, thatís teamwork."

Re: Let's be realistic here

Re: Let's be realistic here

I really think Jack will make a big difference. We have a pretty big hole at the 3. A lot of the time we are playing a guy who due to his size should be a pg. And the rest of the time we are playing a 2nd year 2nd round player who shows promise but wont be there for a few more years.

How many times in the last few weeks have we said we need another guy to score in double figures? We need one more contributor. Well as of now we have a guy who averaged 18 ppg last year is a decent defender and an above average rebounder for his position. Not only that he has a ring already. And if you watched those finals you know he earned his ring. He was not just on the end of the bench he was contributing clutch end of game 3's

We should all be dancing in the streets that Jack is coming back for the next game. If this were a trade and we just aquired this guy we would be overjoyed. But for some reason since we already have him we dont think he will be important. Remember we were 7-2 before the brawl thats a pretty good record.

I know Ron had something to do with that but Jack played well in the games Ron sat out. Clearly he will be able to give us at least 15 ppg and right now thats all we need to compete at a very high level.

Re: Let's be realistic here

Ragnar,
I think Sjax will be VERY important coming back and I am glad his suspension is over. I just don't think he'll be able to step in without us missing a beat. I'm expecting an adjustment period both with the players on the court and coaching before things begin to gel. I want us to get past this period of inconsistency. I don't think another shakeup (Sjax getting inserted into the lineup) will immediately help with consistency but I think it will help with it long term.

That doesn't mean we won't beat Detroit tho

...And depending on how the team has been practicing with Sjax maybe they can get past this period quickly. Maybe practicing with Sjax is in part why they've been inconsistent.. missing a cog from practice?

-Bball

Nuntius was right. I was wrong. Frank Vogel has retained his job.

------

"A player who makes a team great is more valuable than a great player. Losing yourself in the group, for the good of the group, thatís teamwork."