Another Afghanistan Commander Bails on the War Early

Marine Gen. John Allen, the U.S. commander in Afghanistan, inspects a border position in Paktika Province, 2011. Photo: ISAF

Afghanistan war commanders have tenures as long as Spinal Tap drummers. Army Gen. David McKiernan got fired in 2009. His replacement, Army Gen. Stanley McChrystal, resigned the next year. Now the current commander, Marine Gen. John Allen, may be out the door as well, more than a year early.

If Washington Post ace Greg Jaffe is correct, Allen isn’t leaving under the cloud that haunted his predecessors. He’s getting a big promotion: military chief of NATO, one of the military’s most prestigious jobs. President Obama loves him. But Allen’s impending departure still leaves the war primed for its fifth commander in four years, an astonishing amount of top-level turnover for a war that still has over 87,000 U.S. troops in combat.

Allen oversaw the initial withdrawal of U.S. forces from their 2010 peak of about 100,000, a process that will be complete by the end of the summer. Just as importantly, he emphasized to his company commanders that they had to let go of the reins and make the Afghan troops they mentor take the lead for the fight — a crucial, if difficult, step for getting the U.S. out of Afghanistan. (Well, sort of out.)

Accordingly, Allen is getting what he wants from the White House. Obama has agreed to an upcoming U.S. offensive in eastern Afghanistan against the buck-wild Haqqani Network of insurgents — something the White House telegraphed last year it wasn’t comfortable waging. He’s deferring an announcement of how many more U.S. troops will come home after the summer until Allen makes a recommendation. And now, apparently, he’s sending Allen to Belgium, a major promotion.

But even with the next year’s worth of troop reductions and the slow transition to Afghan control, Afghanistan is the U.S.’ largest active battlefield, and the turbulence at the top has impacted the way the war is waged. McKiernan didn’t buy into counterinsurgency with sufficient vigor for ex-Defense Secretary Robert Gates’ tastes. McChrystal really bought into it, and shifted operations and tactics accordingly. Petraeus reversed McChrystal’s restrictions on air power and fought with surprising tactical intensity. Allen all but abandoned counterinsurgency and refocused on training Afghans to smooth the pullout.

All this occurred in under four years. When historians assess why the Afghanistan war underperformed, the frequent command shifts may prove to be a factor.

On the other hand, Allen won’t be handing over the war to a n00b. Jaffe reports that Allen’s likely successor is either Lt. Gen. David Rodriguez, who ran the day-to-day war under Generals McChrystal and Petraeus; or Vice Adm. Robert Harward. There’s reason to think either commander will show some continuities with Allen, even beyond the troop withdrawal’s they’d inherit.