Advocates promised that the top-two open primary would increase turnout, give independent voters more reason to vote and result in more moderate victors on Election Day.

But two elections cycles into the new system, the open primary has accomplished none of these goals, according to an analysis published this month by UC San Diego political scientist Thad Kousser.

The previous system allowed voters to cast primary ballots only for candidates with the same party affiliation in partisan races, while the top-two open primary lets voters to pick any candidate regardless of party.

So voters with no party preference – 21 percent of the state’s electorate and growing – were suddenly able to cast primary ballots for governor, state Legislature, Congress and other partisan seats.

Did more voters take advantage of that? Nope.

In last year’s primary, 12 percent of independent voters cast ballots – the same as in 2008 and slightly less than in 2010, according to Kousser.

The top-two open primary also allows voters registered with a party to cast ballots for candidates with a different party affiliation. The increased options – along with the expectation of more independent voters – was supposed to increase turnout overall.

But the 2014 primary saw 25 percent of registered voters cast ballots, the lowest on record.

Uninformed voters

“The new rules did not seem to change the outcomes of any statewide races,” Kousser writes. He also generally dismisses any moderating effect of the open primary at the state and federal legislative level as “voters have little information about the candidates, making it difficult for them to discern moderates from extremists of the same party.”

Later, Kousser offers evidence that many voters aren’t paying attention even when information is widely available: State Sen. Leland Yee, running for secretary of state in a field of eight, received nearly 10 percent of the vote – despite having been indicted for gun running and public corruption prior to the start of mail voting.

Some argue that the top-two open primary advanced a more moderate Republican candidate to the general election, with Neel Kashkari defeating controversial conservative Tim Donnelly.

But Kousser points out the Kashkari spent four times as much money and received endorsements from numerous prominent Republicans – including Mitt Romney, Pete Wilson, Jeb Bush and Darrell Issa – who worried that party’s poor image in the state would deteriorate further if Donnelly advanced.

Kashkari probably would have done even better in a closed primary, Kousser says, noting that twice as many Democrats cast ballots for Donnelly as for Kashkari – most likely devious voters seeking to embarrass the GOP.

Near upset

While the previous system advanced the top vote-getter from each party, the top-two primary advances the two with the most votes regardless of party. That nearly resulted in two Republicans advancing in the state controller race despite Democrats having a huge edge statewide.

Contributing to that near-anomaly was turnout – while Democrats have a 15-percent edge in voter registration, they only had a 4-percent advantage among primary voters – and three Democrats splitting the primary vote.

But Kousser is careful to say his findings don’t mean the previously touted benefits of the new primary system won’t be seen in the future.

He notes that the top race on the ballot – Jerry Brown’s re-election – was a foregone conclusion and that for the first time all citizen initiatives had been moved to the general election, both of which likely suppressed turnout.

Martin Wisckol covers coastal environment and development. Previously, he spent two decades as politics reporter and columnist for the Orange County Register. He’s also held reporting positions in Miami, Jacksonville, Detroit and his hometown of San Diego, with an emphasis on land use and urban planning. He is a lifelong surfer and has spent most of his life on the coast. His work has been honored by the Society of Professional Journalists, the National Headliner Awards, the California Newspaper Publishers Association, the Florida Press Club and the American Planning Association Florida Chapter.

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