5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Utility swell2 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Utility swell1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell

Flossie Provides Hope for Hawaii South Pacific Remains Quiet

PACIFIC OVERVIEWOn Sunday (8/12) Northern CA surf was again barely up to waist high and weak. South facing breaks in Santa Cruz were flat. Central California surf (Morro Bay) was waist high. Surf in Southern CA from Santa Barbara to just north of LA was near flat with maybe some knee high sets. The LA Area southward to Orange County was thigh high. Southward from Orange County into San Diego best breaks were flat. The North Shore of Oahu was flat. The South Shore had some waist high waves. The East Shore report was not available.

North/Central California was really small receiving only bare minimum local windswell and no other swell source. Southern California was really not rideable receiving only some tiny windswell and the last fading remnants of energy from a tiny southern hemi swell. Hawaii was flat on the North Shore with the usual limited short period easterly tradewind generated windswell on the East Shore. The South Shore was receiving a taste of southern hemi background swell mixing with wrap-around tradewind swell. The North Pacific remained in hibernation with no large scale weather systems in-play. But hurricane Flossie was 731 nmiles west southwest of the Big Island with sustained winds peaking at 120 kts (135 mph) aimed well at the Big Island but shadowed from the rest of the Islands. A gale that was forecast south of New Zealand Monday-Tuesday (8/14) has disappeared from the charts with nothing else of interest indicated to follow either. So it looks like more of the same with no clear signs of any swell forecast other than some easterly swell for Hawaii. See details below...

SHORT- TERM FORECASTCurrent marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

NorthPacific

Overview
Sundays jetstream charts (8/12) for the North Pacific indicated virtually no energy of interest with a ridge pushing most energy up into Alaska. Over the next 72 hours a backdoor trough is expected to start bulging off Canada Monday into the Gulf of Alaska and holding, though weak. Nothing expected to develop at the oceans surface. Beyond 72 hours a new stronger trough is forecast to develop in the Northern Gulf of Alaska diving south next weekend with up to 140 kt winds in it's western quadrant,perhaps having some effect at the oceans surface, but that seems like pure fantasy at this early date.

At the surface today high pressure at 1032 mbs was centered 1500 nmiles west of Southern Oregon and too distant to be having any effect on California. But it was just close enough from Hawaii and in concert with hurricane Flossie to be generating 15-20 kts trades north of her center and those winds were just starting to push into the Islands now. Otherwise a quiet pattern was in control. Over the next 72 hrs through Wednesday (8/15) not a whole lot of change is forecast with the only point of interest being Flossie. She is to move just south of the Big Island of Hawaii early Wednesday (within 100 nmiles) with winds down to minimal hurricane strength heading on a west-northwesterly track, then passing south of Kauai 24 hours later. Current data suggest all the pure swell generating capacity of this system to be focused on the Big Island with the other Islands shadowed, though sizeable short period windswell from the interaction of Flossie and high pressure to the north to provide raw surf for east shores (see details in the Tropical Report below). Otherwise a patch of 20 kt winds to build off Pt Conception CA on Tuesday but have no windswell generation potential for our forecast area.

Tropics
On Sunday (8/12) Hurricane Flossie was 730 nmiles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii tracking just barely north of due west at 12 kts. Maximum sustained winds were 115 kts and she was moving basically due west at 12 kts. Current forecast data suggests Flossie has maxed out, with a slight turn to the northwest expected later today and winds gradually fading. If she moves along the expected track, Flossie is to be positioned just 100 nmiles south of the Big Island at 2 AM Wednesday morning (8/15) with winds down to 75 kts. She is to continue on this track positioned about the same distance south of Kauai on Thursday morning with winds down to 50 kts, then exiting the area. From a swell generation perspective, the core fetch from Flossie is and has been shadowed from all the other Islands by Hawaii. So whatever swell is generated is expected to all impact the east shore of the Big Island starting Monday (8/13) at noon with period 15 secs and on the increase through the afternoon. Rough data suggest swell at 6-7 ft @ 15 secs (9 ft faces) coming from 110-115 degrees. Swell to continue into Tuesday but with conditions deteriorating (strong easterly winds). For the other islands this swell is to be completely shadowed by the Big Island (other than perhaps eastern Maui). Still sizeable windswell generated by the interaction of Flossie with high pressure to the north to be a possible swell source (see QuikCASTs for details). Also as Flossie passes south of the Islands Wed-Thurs, sizeable southern swell is possible along southern shores, but local conditions to be far from optimal, with 25-30 kt east winds expected.

California Offshore ForecastOn Sunday (8/12) high pressure at 1032 mbs was well west of the area having no impact. Mostly light winds (less than 15 kts) were occurring over the area. Weak low pressure (1016 mbs) was positioned off southern Oregon expected to hold for days but a tiny finger of the high is expected to try and wedge into Southern CA on Monday generating 20 kt north winds limited to a small area off Pt Conception late Monday pushing 25 kts late Tuesday on into Wednesday. Finally on Thursday (8/16) the little low is to break up and high pressure is to be pushing into the entire state including North CA late with north winds building there up to 25 kts. Windswell generation potential to be on the increase as the fetch area builds in size with the core moving up to Cape Mendocino late Friday. But local winds to be anything but calm. In fact, starting Tuesday a steady local flow of 15 kts or greater is expected from Bodega Bay southward peaking late Thursday into Friday with a good amount of chop in the water. The fetch to fade on Saturday as low pressure builds in the Gulf of Alaska and the high retreats, and windswell with it.

SouthPacific

Overview
Sundays jetstream charts (8/12) for the South Pacific remained unfavorable with the southern branch of the jet depressed well to the south tracking generally flat west to east along the 70S latitude, all over the Ross Ice Shelf and totally icelocked. Winds were in the 100-120 kt range. There was no support for surface level gale development. Over the next 72 hours through Wednesday (8/15) not much change is forecast with the southern branch push even further south over Antarctica proper in the east. A minimal hint of a trough pushing north is forecast under New Zealand Monday (8/13) but never reaching north of the Ross Ice Shelf and not making it to open water before it dissipates on Tuesday. Yet another slightly strong trough is to push under New Zealand on Wednesday with with actually reaching 130 kts and pushing some to the north, into open waters. A little hope here. Beyond 72 hours that trough is to continue pushing north while is moves to the east providing a little window for something to develop in at the oceans surface in the mid-South Pacific, but energy levels to really be dropping after Thursday. Limited support for weak gale development at the oceans surface. Beyond a flat flow to continue in the southern branch and depressed well to the south, locked over Antarctic Ice.

At the surface today no swell producing winds of interest were indicated with the generalized wind motion in the Southwest Pacific all aimed due south towards Antarctica and in the Southeast winds were aimed due east towards Chile. One low was off the southern tip of Chile generating 45-50 kt due north winds at 55S 95W, but well west of even the California swell window. And it is supposed to dissipate within 12 hours. No swell production potential suggested. Over the next 72 hours a little low is supposed to push under New Zealand on Tuesday (8/14), but with high pressure due north of it all of it's 35-40 kt fetch and 25-27 ft seas area to be aimed due east, again missing our forecast area. Maybe background swell for Hawaii with luck. No other swell sources indicated.

LONG-TERM FORECASTMarine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

NorthPacific

Beyond 72 hours the remains of Flossie to be exiting the Hawaiian Islands to the west on Thursday (8/16) while low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska is to settle south. Theoretically low pressure is supposed to start building off the Kuril Islands and also in the Gulf of Alaska. The Kuril low is to push northeast into the Bering Sea late Friday while the Gulf low wraps up some well off the Pacific Northwest supposedly producing up to 35 kt north winds aimed well at California early Saturday (8/18). Some potential for windswell generation if one is to believe the models, but that's far from a safe bet this far out into the future. No other swell source indicated.

SouthPacific

Beyond 72 hours the models indicate that low pressure that pushed under New Zealand Tuesday is to try and organize again in the far Southeast Pacific Saturday/Sunday (8/19). 45 kt winds and 27 ft seas are forecast and on the increase, but by the time they reach critical mass Sunday they are to be repositioned, outside the Caledonia swell window at 55S 112W. So no hope is apparent.

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