Sunday, January 18, 2009

SUMMARY:- Stocks blow a lead as financials crater, but manage a recovery to the close.- Economic data remains as bad as you would imagine- LIBOR continues to reverse positive trend, rising faster as stimulus types and TARP requirements less than favored by financial markets.- Tax cut percentage of stimulus package fell as one tax credit was properly abandoned but nothing new was put in its place.- Bank dive pushes financial sector toward the old low, setting up an important test.- Good stocks show good volume on the Friday move, and the rebound will need them and more if it is going to move further upside.

Let's see, it was another day in the stock market so there was some really bad news out. Doesn't matter what day of the week. You cannot watch the news, have a work conversation, catch a workout at the gym, or go to your kid's basketball game without hearing about the latest and worst economic news or investment scandal. Indeed Friday after the close another scandal hit with another fund manager disappearing reportedly along with $350M in other people's money.

So it was no surprise there was more bad news in the morning. C and BAC, one cutting itself up and the other forced to drink the blood of the government's TARP (and thus become a government zombie), announced earnings that were, as hard as it is to imagine, worse than expected. The CPI price measure was weak but not as weak as expected (-0.7% versus -0.9% and -1.7% in November). Production and capacity fell even more than expected and were quite weak. Yes, just another day confronting the worst economic times since the 1970's. I didn't like the 1970's at all. The republican Ford couldn't do anything after taking over from Nixon. Democrat Carter was elected as a new start and voice of reason and intellect after the Nixon corruption and the Viet Nam war. He was the worst President, during and after leaving office, we have ever had, making things much worse at a time you though things could not get worse. Kind of makes you wonder about our current situation . . .

Despite the same bad news du jour, futures were up and the market started higher as well. Looked as if the Thursday reversal had a little muscle left over after that higher volume reversal move. Almost immediately, however, stocks started fading. They sold into lunch, giving up the gains and then moving negative. A bearish high to low fade right in the face of the Thursday high volume reversal. On top of that Circuit City announced it was liquidating, unable to come out of Chapter eleven. 35,000 more to be out of work. AMD then announced it was laying off 1,100.

So, as you would expect . . . the market rallied back. It recovered the lost ground and turned positive. It got a goose from Bill Gross when he appeared on CNBC stating the worst was likely over for banks' balance sheets. Stocks continued higher and by the close were just below session highs. Something of a return to the rally that started in the face of a lot of bad news. Something like that, but as noted all week, there are other issues at work that arose after the rally started. Good recovery Friday, but the difficulty in hanging onto a continuation rally from the Thursday reversal was worrisome.

TECHNICAL. As noted the action was looking pretty bearish with the fade from the morning highs, the old high to low bear market selloff. Once more it did manage to turn higher in the face of bad news, however, something to its credit. A solid and steady rally into the close pushed the indices positive. Good recovery.

INTERNALS. The downside internals were impressively weak Wednesday with NYSE breadth at -10:1 levels. That along with 6.5 down days set up the bounce. Thursday breadth was mediocre; okay for a reversal session. Friday it was better with NYSE showing almost 2:1, but these days that is a pretty modest session. NASDAQ was mediocre again at 1.2:1. Volume on the reversal session was very good and it was good again Friday though down a bit. Trade was still above average on both, another positive as the market moves higher yet again though it was expiration week and some of the volume can be attributed to that.

CHARTS. The Thursday reversal started pretty much where it had to as there was no more room to the downside to give and keep things even superficially positive. Friday the move was not as impressive as the indices had to recover from giving away the gains just to hold positive. SP500 is holding right at the October lows. NASDAQ bounced off that level but stalled at the 50 day SMA Friday. DJ30 held the October low as well but it couldn't make much headway. Same with SP500. Very similar. All made the bounce, but of all, the mid-caps look the best in the SP400. We joked a month back about the SP600 small caps leading ('and the children shall lead'). Maybe it is going to be the teenagers instead as they managed to hold the December consolidation levels.

LEADERSHIP. Chips continue looking good with more high volume advances Friday. BRCM moved above the 50 day EMA and the 90 day SMA. NVLS jumped past the 50 day EMA on very strong trade. Chips are universally despised, but they are also moving higher on strong volume and we have picked up positions along the way. Not all small caps struggled mightily last week; HMSY, EPIQ and others performed well and more are in position to move. Engineering pulled back but recovered well to end the week. Metals were down in the selling, but were recovering late in the week. They are a bit iffier with their patterns and have something to prove this coming week. Medical and drugs have improved, but they are a mixed picture. They can be leaders and they can also be defensive. In sum, there are still leaders in good position but the ranks thinned during the pullback. Those in good position started to bounce some Thursday and Friday, but they still have a lot to prove this coming week if they are still going to hold the leadership mantel and help pull the market higher again.

THE ECONOMY

Last batch of economic data stinks.

Yes Michigan sentiment rose to 61.9, topping expectations and December's 60.1. Lower oil prices and the bump higher in the stock market helped that out. The lower oil prices pushed PPI lower and on Friday we learned CPI as well. Consumer prices fell 0.7% but that was not the -1.7% in November. It still marked the fifth straight monthly decline and put 2008 prices at a meager 0.1% rise. That was something in the neighborhood of a 54 year low rate. Core prices remained flat, not rising the 0.1% expected.

At least prices are not rising, but that of course stokes deflation fears given the economic cycle is at low tide. Happened in the 2000 to 2003 recession. Happened in 1991 before that. Happens just about every serious economic pullback, and usually near the trough. As with inflation where the economic cycle has peaked as inflation spikes, deflationary trends in prices typically hit their peak (or bottom) when the economic cycle has bottomed. Hey, that is something to look forward to.

Production was really bad, falling 2%, doubling the 1% anticipated decline. November's 0.6% gain was flipped to a 1.3% decline. Production has fallen off the cliff in this downturn and is picking up speed, dropping an annualized 11.5% in Q4. Year over year production fell 7.8%, the largest drop since 1975. Capacity utilization fell to 73.6%, well below expectations and November's downwardly revised 75.2%. That 73.6% rate is 7.4% below its average from 1972 to 2007. Below average? No surprise there.

No question the economic data is bad. It remains bad. There are not a lot of signs it is improving. Regional manufacturing reports for the week were a bit better than expected and improved over the prior month. Maybe something is brewing there; this was one of the first areas to turn up in the last recession and is a bit leading. As jobs losses surge there is a typically a pickup in manufacturing as they become more efficient and the managers feel better having reduced overhead costs. As we know, jobs as with inflation lags the economic cycle and as they hit seemingly unbearable levels the cycle is rounding the bottom. At least unless this is a generational decline, and with all of the bad decisions and evisceration of our banking system (a.k.a. nationalization) it may prove to be generational.

As for jobs, more were pitched under the bus Friday. As noted CC is closing the doors and that means 35K unemployed. AMD cut 1,100. Conoco is cutting 4% of its workers. Hertz is shedding 4K. Honda is cutting 2,100. WLP is cutting 1,500. These were all announced Friday. Earlier in the week MOT announced 4,000, Barclays 2,100, and MWV (packaging) 2,000. All told thus far this year (and the month is only 16 days old) 87,235 job cuts have been thrown on the table. That on top of the 2.6M lost last year. With the workweek falling to 33.3 from 33.5 last month, it is going to get worse because employers are working their employees fewer hours, showing the slack demand has crushed the need for workers.

It is a sad story and we can only hope that this is truly the bottom of the cycle. Companies typically lay off workers en masse as things are actually bottoming. Many are saying that companies acted quickly to axe workers this time around, but that simply isn't reality. It costs too much to layoff workers that have been trained and are productive, so they put it off until it really hurts. As with most things emotional, the action occurs as the bottom is here.

I want to preface this section by noting that the overall credit condition is vastly improved. If you chart the various credit spreads and rates across a span of 40 years you see that the current crisis at its peaked topped them all. Russian ruble, Asian Flu, Tai baht. They were younger cousins of this credit crisis. That said, after this last sharp decline in dollar LIBOR and the improvement in corporate bonds and commercial paper, the current crisis has come back to levels just under the peaks of those other very serious currency and credit crises.

Problem is, after improving to levels just below those other events, the recent action is reversing ground and ready to break back over the PEAKS in those other crises. The culprit? The market is letting us know when we make bad policy decisions.

We already noted the relationship earlier this week, but the speed of the turn warrants reiterating it in the hope more will take up the cry and thus catch the attention of the policy makers. Ever since the one-two punch of new TARP regulations and the fight over including tax cuts in the stimulus package emerged, the credit markets started to reverse some solid and hard-fought gains.

LIBOR rates were posting very impressive declines, picking up speed along the way. The key 3-month dollar LIBOR hit 1.08% the past week, down from 1.85% just a couple of weeks back. That 1.85% was the lowest level since August 2004 at the time. A very nice drop indeed. When the proposed Obama administration changes in the TARP regulations and the fight over including tax cuts in the stimulus package started, however, the decline abruptly halted. It held steady and then started to bounce back up this week. Friday the 3-month closed at 1.14%. Still well off the highs and holding much of the decline, but LIBOR is up across the spectrum.

This happened before when the Paulson Treasury announced one sunny day several weeks after TARP was passed that it would not be used to buy distressed assets. Of course TARP was sold to us and Congress as a vehicle to buy distressed assets much the same as the RTC bought bad assets in the savings and loan crisis of the late 1980's and early 1990's. LIBOR had been falling until Treasury made this announcement. Then it stalled the decline and started right back up. It was not until the Fed announced its TALF to actually by distressed MBS and SBA loans and securities did LIBOR resume the fall once more.

Take heed please new administration. We know the Fed is watching this rate closely, but the last thing we need is for the Fed to have to come up with another $600B+ program to fix what a bad decision by Treasury damaged.

More word on the tax component of the proposed stimulus plan.

Friday the official version of the stimulus bill left the House. It is still $825B in all with $550B in spending and $275B as tax cuts. Actually it is two bills; one for the spending, one for the tax portion. That is still the 33.3% we reported Thursday. $145B of the tax cuts is a 'tax cut' for low and middle income workers. There is something called the 'Make Work Pay Credit' that pays those making $75K or less ($150K joint) $500 or $1500 in the form of a tax credit. It is paid either through paychecks or their tax return. That tells you what it really is: you may not owe any taxes but you get a 'tax credit.' It is not a tax credit or tax bill at all; it is a new welfare bill and is really nothing more than issuing the bogus 'tax rebates' from the spring of 2008. In short, it isn't going to stimulate anything; it is something to help out and should be called such.

As for real tax cuts, there is not much left out of the $825, just $130B. That is too little, and unfortunately the types of relief offered is not much relief and it is not very stimulating. $17B is for net operating loss carry backs and carry forwards. You can file and get money back. That is not the kind of 'use it to get it' credits that have proved so successful in past recessions. There are renewable energy credits as well. Great. Spend $50K on putting some solar panels on your building to generate one-seventh of your monthly electricity needs and you get a modest tax credit. Watch out for the stampede to the solar and wind stores for that one. There is the increase in expensing, bring it up to $250K from $125K. As we have noted before, however, if you are not going to spend enough to take advantage of the $125K expensing, you won't suddenly spend more because the limit is now $250K. What we need are tax credits: if you buy a computer you get $1000 credit off the bottom line. What do you do? You buy a computer. That goes for phone systems, vehicles, trailers, tools, and on and on. You have to have a 'use it to get it' requirement that forces any thinking business person or individual to make the purchase and have something in hand versus just sending the money in the form of taxes to DC.

And what of Charlie Rangel, the head of the House Ways and Means committee (and the fellow who didn't realize he had a house in the tropics that he rented and received income on and didn't report) who promised to lower the corporate tax on small businesses? That is a move that would really, really help versus this 'file and get money back lost in prior years' nonsense. Who cares? So you can get more of your losses back. You had to have some whopping losses and a lot of businesses, until recently, have been in good shape. The initial stimulus will be so minimal it is a joke. Plus it will cost businesses a lot of money to figure out and determine what is recoverable and then filing the documents. Hire the accountant and the tax lawyer and lose half of what you would get back. Way to go guys. Just cut the percentage people and businesses owe in taxes and you get IMMEDIATE impact. Throw in some tax credits and you accelerate the impact.

Hopefully the Senate will spice it up more as the democrats need the republicans to get anything passed. If not we are getting ready to shoot $825B down the hole with spending that, just like the Great Depression, does nothing to improve our investment in the US and new technologies that will be the real provider of jobs in the future. I had to laugh when I heard the President-elect say that the spending bill would hopefully produce jobs that would not go overseas. He is absolutely right. If you fix a bridge or school roof in the US that job is not going to go overseas. It is, however, going to go away nonetheless because fixing a bridge does not create the demand for another bridge to be built. It only provides a temporary job that anyone can do. That is not the kind of job that will carry us well into the twenty-first century. It may carry us through the end of 2009 and then we will be looking for more money to spend to try and stimulate the economy, but at the rate the Fed and Treasury are spending it, there won't be any.

Hate to sound so pessimistic, but we have tried this before and it failed miserably. If you give money to people with no strings attached such as these 'credits,' they won't spend it given times are bad or they won't spend it on capital investment in the US. It simply takes money that was taxed away from someone who earned it, gives it to someone who did not, and then creates another taxable event (with the money going to the Feds) when it is spent (sales tax and income tax). The winner? The federal government as it gets more tax revenue out of the same dollar that is passed around without being invested in any jobs producing activity.

THE MARKET

MARKET SENTIMENT

VIX: 46.11; -4.89VXN: 44.19; -4.14VXO: 45.85; -2.61

Put/Call Ratio (CBOE): 0.97; -0.2

Bulls versus Bears:

This is a reading of the number of bullish investment advisors versus bearish advisors. The reason you look at this is that it gives you an idea of how bullish investors are. If they are too bullish then everyone is in the market and it is heading for a top: if everyone wants to be in the market then all the money is in and there is no more new cash to drive it higher. On the other side of the spectrum if there are a lot of bears then there is a lot of cash on the sideline, and as the market rallies it drags that cash in as the bears give in. That cash provides the market the fuel to move higher. If bears are low it is the same as a lot of bulls: everyone is in and the market doesn't have the cash to drive it higher.

This is a historical milestone in the making. Bulls are impressively low considering we are in general a very optimistic country. The few bulls is a positive indication because it means most everyone that is getting out is out and there is money on the sidelines. In other words the ammunition boxes are full and as the market recovers investors will start opening up the boxes and firing. Little by little they will be forced to put more money into the market and there will be some rushes higher in fear they are missing the train. You relish times when sentiment is so negative because it means some tremendous buys are setting up. This could indeed be the opportunity of a lifetime, and you take advantage of it by buying quality stocks and letting them work for you as long as they will. If we can hold them for years, great.

Bulls: 43.0%. Up from 41.8% last week and continuing the rise though the market drop might bring it down a bit next week. Up from 38.5% the prior week and up from 25.3% hit in mid-December. This puts bullishness above the 35% threshold below which is considered bullish. It does not mean the action is now bearish. That level is up at 55%. Bullishness bottomed on this leg lower at 21.3% in November 2008. This last leg down showed us the largest single week drop we have ever seen, falling from 33.7% to 25.3%. Hit 40.7% on the high during the rally off the July 2008 lows. 30.9% was the March low. In March the indicator did its job with the dive below 35% and the crossover with the bears. A move into the lower 40's is a decline of significance. A move to 35% is a bullish indicator. This is smashing that. For reference it bottomed in the summer 2006, the last major round of selling ahead of this 2007 top, near 36%, and 35% is considered bullish.

Bears: 34.4%. Basically flat from 34.1% the prior week, slowing the rapid decline from 38.5% the prior week and off from the 46.2% hit mid-December. That puts it below the 35% level considered bullish for stocks, but as with bulls, still well below the level considered bearish for stocks. Bearishness hit a 5 year high at 54.4% the last week of October. The move over 50 took bearish sentiment to its highest level since 1995. Extreme negative sentiment on this move. 35% is the level that historically indicates excessive pessimism. As with the bulls the jump in bears did its job after hitting 44.7% in the third week of March. Bearishness peaked at 37.4% in September 2007. It topped the June 2006 peak (36%) on that run. That June peak eclipsed the March 2006 high (33%) and well above the 2005 highs that spawned new rallies (30% in May 2005, 29.2% in October 2005). This is a huge turn, unlike any seen in recent history.

NASDAQ

Stats: +17.49 points (+1.16%) to close at 1529.33Volume: 2.284B (-8.76%)

Up Volume: 1.531B (-150.935M) Down Volume: 664.693M (-141.676M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.24 to 1Previous Session: Advancers led 1.2 to 1

Gapped higher, sold to fill the gap and test the October low again and then rebounded close to session highs. It could not break the 50 day SMA (1594), however, though it did move up through the late December consolidation lows. Still rather precarious; the gains the past two sessions were just 40 points and NASDAQ was losing more than that on the downside sessions in the selling. NASDAQ has quite a bit of work to do this coming week if it is going to make this rebound stick. More volume on the upside moves and that is a positive, but the pattern took a real bearish turn this past week and NASDAQ dug a hole that will need some better than expected earnings and guidance for the second half of 2009 to get it out of.

SOX (+3.47%) gapped higher and rallied to the November/December up trendline and the 50 day EMA. It filled the gap and recovered, but it is showing a doji on the candlestick chart near the mid-December high. As with the other indices, there is the risk of a head and shoulders top here that needs to be broken up with the action over the next week or so. Always tough climbing out, but as noted above, many chip stocks are in good shape and showing good action.

Stats: +6.38 points (+0.76%) to close at 850.12NYSE Volume: 1.617B (-1.61%). Volume was lower but still nicely above average as the NYSE indices scratched out a modest gain. It was expiration, however, and thus there was volume tied to it.

Up Volume: 1.023B (+134.707M) Down Volume: 573.875M (-155.064M)

A/D and Hi/Lo: Advancers led 1.96 to 1. Not bad, but as noted above, nothing special with the breadth shown of late.Previous Session: Advancers led 1.2 to 1

SP500 was up, but it was also all over the map before it closed right at the October low. Good reversal Thursday but not much of a follow through Friday. Given that some major components (or at least they used to be) such as JPM, BAC, C and WFC sold hard those same days, it is amazing SP500 finished upside at all. It has a lot to do next week to turn a rather lackluster follow up to the reversal off a week of selling into a continuation of the rally. The trend is broken, it closed the week below the late December consolidation lows, and the financials continue to bleed and sap SP500's strength. The XLF (financial spyder) is approaching the prior lows for a test. That makes this week's action in SP500 very critical to the market and whether it can hang on and convert this to something more of fails and starts lower again.

SP600 (+2.70) bounced up and down and up as well, posting a very modest gain for all the running around it did. Held the October low on the closes, a positive, and bounced form there. It is also below the late December consolidation range, however, and has some ice breaking to do if it is going to recover and get the bounce back on track. That will take more than next week to determine even if SP600 finishes next week higher. It has to take out the mid-December peak to break up its own potential head and shoulders top.

Similar to SP600 the blue chips held the October closing low on last week's closes, reversing off some support at 8000 Thursday. It added just a modest gain Friday similar to the other indices; not much of a follow through to the reversal. It does have a rather well established trading range from 8000 to 9000. If it can make that move that will be a great start. It has resistance at 8420, 8500, and 8750 along the way. AS with the other indices, lots of work to do.

Stats: +68.73 points (+0.84%) to close at 8281.22VOLUME: 439M shares Friday versus 436M shares Thursday. Lots of volume on the financial components as they mined lower once more.

Inauguration day Tuesday. Should we believe the commercials about new beginnings, etc.? Was there some geological event we were not informed of such as hell freezing over? This is Washington, DC we are talking about. Even before the inauguration we are witness to politics as usual as long-time senators and House members try to show the incoming President where he stands in the pecking order and these are people in his own party.

More important is the action on the stimulus plan and what if any meaningful changes are made over the next two weeks in committee. Rangel said an AMT patch and some corporate tax reduction should be included as the bill is taken up by the House Ways and Means committee. We will see. If discussions turn that way that will be a market positive.

Economically it is a slow week but earnings will dominate. The spigot opens up and they will be coming in fast. The market needs some good names reporting some relatively positive outlooks for the back half of the year, some movement on the tax cut stimulus, the solid stocks in good position to move upside, and financials to hold the line and start back up.

Speaking of financials, this was a very, very bad week for that group on some very, very bad news in the sector. Bad earnings, the need for more money from the government, the fear that total nationalization of all major banks will occur before this is over. It was a feeding frenzy of bad news and that drove them lower. As noted, the XLF financial spyder is nearing the prior lows set in November 2008. If they can hold and double bottom at that point (just a point away though that is a 10% move) that gives the market a real opportunity to attack the recent selling with some vigor.

That is a lot of ifs and maybes, but these are uncharted waters for the economy and the financials, so investors are feeling their way along. There is a dichotomy right now with some great stocks in great position on one end and the financials on the other end. Everything else is somewhere in between, but after the past week and one-half most are leaning to the financials' side of the median line. Not in nearly as dire shape, but not ready to break higher either. Again, the financials are near the prior lows (as a whole), and if they muster a bounce at that point then the market stands a good chance of bouncing further up on this rebound.

That takes the indices up to the December peaks, maybe a bit farther. The chance of success from there depends upon stimulus negotiations and how the financials fare. At this juncture there remains good leadership, but it is half of what it was two weeks back. Still, as you can see on the report and the continuing plays table, there are many, many high quality stocks in very good position to move higher. Still, all aspects considered, the index patterns and the action in the financials tip the scale more toward an eventual failure of this rally versus hitting new highs on the move. That can all change with a new surge of buying off of this pullback, but for now our game plan as set out on Thursday remains the same: riding a bounce as far as it will take us, playing stocks that can make us nice, crisp moves higher, and if it stalls at the December peaks or in that general vicinity we take them off the table along with current upside plays and have some downside plays at the ready when the bounce plays out. After all, SP500 has bounced a couple of sessions, but still does not look too healthy. Again, it is amazing it finished upside at all given how some major financials sold hard to end the week. That suggests there is strength elsewhere in the market, and if the financials overall hold at the prior lows then there is a jump higher coming.

Support and Resistance

NASDAQ: Closed at 1529.33Resistance:1534 is the 50 day SMA1536 is the late November 2008 peak1542 is the early October 2008 lowThe 18 day EMA at 1552The 50 day EMA at 15941597 is the November/December up trendline1565 is the second low in October 20081603 is the December peak1620 from the early 2001 low1644 from August 2003The 90 day SMA at 16961752 from 20041782 from August 20041786 is the November 2008 high. Key level.1948 is the early October 2008 gap down level

Support:1521 is the late 2002 peak following the bounce off the bear market low1499.21 is the 2008 closing low1493 is the October 2008 low & late December 2008 consolidation low.1428 is the November 2008 low1398 is the early December 2008 low1387 is the 2001 low1295 is the November 2008 low

S&P 500: Closed at 850.12Resistance:853 is the July 2002 low857 is the December consolidation low866 is the second October 2008 lowThe 10 day EMA at 872The 18 day EMA at 879889 is an interim 2002 peak896 is the late November 2008 peak899 is the early October closing lowThe 50 day EMA at 905916 is the November/December up trendline919 is the early December peakThe 90 day SMA at 958965 is the 2003 consolidation low995 from June 2003 consolidation peak1008 is the November 2008 peak1065 is the Q4 2003 level that SP500 started the run to 2007 after the first run in the recovery.

Support:848 is the October 2008 closing low839 is the early October 2008 low815 is the early December 2008 low818 is the November 2008 low800 is the March 2003 post bottom low768 is the 2002 bear market low741 is the November 2008 low

Dow: Closed at 8281.22Resistance:8419 is the late December closing low in that consolidation8451 is the early October closing lowThe 10 day EMA at 84638521 is an interim high in March 2003 after the March 2003 lowThe 50 day SMA at 85728626 from December 2002The 50 day EMA at 87578829 is the late November 2008 peak8934 is the December closing high8985 is the closing low in the mid-2003 consolidationThe 90 day SMA at 91539200 is the July peak in the 2003 consolidation9323 From June 2003 peak9575 from September 2003, May 20019654 is the November 2008 peak

Support:8141 is the early December low8197 was the second October 2008 low8175 is the October 2008 closing low. Key level to watch.7965 is the November 2008 intraday low.7882 is the early October 2008 low. Key level to watch.7702 is the July 2002 low7524 is the March 2002 low to test the move off the October 2002 low7449 is the November 2008 low7282 is the October 2002 low

Economic Calendar

These are consensus expectations. Our expectations will vary and are discussed in the 'Economy' section.