The Situation in the Ukraine. #14

I believe there was an article posted here about ABM systems and how China can counter them. It pretty much came down to the fact that:1) ABM systems are not 100% reliable, and Austin pointed out in an article how they are not even close to 100%, not even 50% effective.2) Due to the poor effectiveness of anything higher than a typical scud like IRBM, deplete the systems capabilities by using old, unguided balistic missiles against it.3) Use more systems like nuclear tipped cruise missiles, which ABM systems cannot go up against4) make new systems to counter ABM systems like more anti radation missiles5) more quasi ballistic missile systems like Iskander6) If such a system is in Kharkov ever to appear, it would be within striking range of longer range artillery systems.7) More missiles!

In the 1991 referendum, 86% of Kharkov oblast voted for independence from Ukraine. I think NAF should do an uprising in Kharkov oblast.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kharkiv_Oblast

It is important to remember that Maidan is not over. Donbas has resistance, so Maidan never accomplished its objectives, that is placing US military bases in eastern Ukraine. As of today, Maidan is nearly 2 years long. Compared to the Orange revolution where 1 guy died of heart attack, over 6,200 people have died in Maidan so far.

The ceasefire in eastern Ukraine is under strain as Kiev presses the West for more financial and military aid. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko warns that full-scale war could explode “at any moment.” Yet many of his country’s young men are avoiding conscription into the no-win conflict. Americans’ sympathies should go to both Ukrainians and Russians suffering in Vladimir Putin’s deadly geopolitical games, but Washington should stay out of the battle.

A century ago Europe was enveloped in death and destruction. The “Great War” raged, killing millions, ravaging nations, impoverishing peoples, and wrecking empires. Out of that conflict came the loosening of Russia’s control over multitude subject peoples, including in Ukraine. The Bolsheviks soon reversed the process, but their Soviet-Russian empire disintegrated in 1991. Again Kiev escaped outside domination, this time hopefully permanently.

Independent Ukraine suffered mightily from internal divisions and poor governance. Politics was autocratic, abusive “oligarchs” dominated the largely unreformed economy. The country straddled the divide between Europe and Russia, with the Ukrainian people wanting greater Western integration without abandoning Russian ties. A strong majority rejected NATO membership, which Moscow would see as hostile.

Kiev now effectively is a Russian enemy, despite continuing cross-border ties. Putin obviously bears immediate responsibility, having seized Crimea and promoted separatist conflict in the Donbas. However, the West did much to antagonize someone who, though a one-time KGB officer, appeared to bear America no special animus when the U.S.S.R. collapsed. Moreover, Putin accepted Ukraine even when ruled by Russian antagonist Viktor Yushchenko, since Kiev did not join the Western bloc.

But Washington and Brussels consistently disregarded Russian security interests. The allies expanded NATO up to Russia’s borders; dismembered Serbia, historically linked to Russia; attempted to prevent Moscow’s participation in the post-war Kosovo settlement; pushed Ukraine to choose between East and West economically; and encouraged the ouster of an elected pro-Russian government in Kiev. Needless to say, Washington did not emphasize these factors when “countering Moscow’s deceptive propaganda with the unvarnished truth,” as explained the Obama administration’s 2015 National Security Strategy. .......................................................................... continue...

More mendacious disinfo from our media presstitutes. The author opens admits to the US/EU/NATO shenanigans that have destroyed the potential for peaceful co-existance and mutual accommodation that should have followed the end of the Cold War, yet he fucks up his article with the usual boiler-plate agitprop shit like "Vladimir Putin’s deadly geopolitical games" or the pathetic gem of stupidity of "Putin obviously bears immediate responsibility, having seized Crimea and promoted separatist conflict in the Donbas".

WTF is wrong with this guy? He has laid out the relevent recent historical background, yet reverts to propaganda and blames Russia. Is this a case of a writer trying to tell the truth, but having to kow-tow to the corporate media "official truth" in order to get his article approved?

Either way, fuck you Forbes. It has always been a media group that caters to the views of the corrupt, rich, selfish wankers of the Western ruling elite....

Flagship Victory wrote:In the 1991 referendum, 86% of Kharkov oblast voted for independence from Ukraine. I think NAF should do an uprising in Kharkov oblast.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kharkiv_Oblast

It is important to remember that Maidan is not over. Donbas has resistance, so Maidan never accomplished its objectives, that is placing US military bases in eastern Ukraine. As of today, Maidan is nearly 2 years long. Compared to the Orange revolution where 1 guy died of heart attack, over 6,200 people have died in Maidan so far.

No, its NOT over yet, and will not be until the Banderistas meet the same fate as the Nazis, and HATO follow the Warsaw Pact into the "Graveyard of Ideas that have Outlived their Purpose".

Big_Gazza wrote:More mendacious disinfo from our media presstitutes. The author opens admits to the US/EU/NATO shenanigans that have destroyed the potential for peaceful co-existance and mutual accommodation that should have followed the end of the Cold War, yet he fucks up his article with the usual boiler-plate agitprop shit like "Vladimir Putin’s deadly geopolitical games" or the pathetic gem of stupidity of "Putin obviously bears immediate responsibility, having seized Crimea and promoted separatist conflict in the Donbas".

WTF is wrong with this guy? He has laid out the relevent recent historical background, yet reverts to propaganda and blames Russia. Is this a case of a writer trying to tell the truth, but having to kow-tow to the corporate media "official truth" in order to get his article approved?

Either way, fuck you Forbes. It has always been a media group that caters to the views of the corrupt, rich, selfish wankers of the Western ruling elite....

Forbes have published several articles with a similar tone recently, lots of accusations without presenting supportive facts. I suspect they have been told to up the anti-Russian propaganda war a bit. Must be something about to happen.

sepheronx wrote:I believe there was an article posted here about ABM systems and how China can counter them. It pretty much came down to the fact that:1) ABM systems are not 100% reliable, and Austin pointed out in an article how they are not even close to 100%, not even 50% effective.2) Due to the poor effectiveness of anything higher than a typical scud like IRBM, deplete the systems capabilities by using old, unguided balistic missiles against it.3) Use more systems like nuclear tipped cruise missiles, which ABM systems cannot go up against4) make new systems to counter ABM systems like more anti radation missiles5) more quasi ballistic missile systems like Iskander6) If such a system is in Kharkov ever to appear, it would be within striking range of longer range artillery systems.7) More missiles!

So on so forth.

ABM can be used.. to intercept Interceptors trying to protect Russia from a nuclear attack. this is one of its danger. So if ABM fully in place.. then Americans without asking their European Colonies ,can launch a nuclear attack on Moscow from Europe (Either a country that is friendly to Russia or one that many millions ethnic Russians living like Ukraine..) and later usethe ABM shield to intercept any S-400 or S-500 missile trying to intercept the incoming attack to moscow..

So the ABM shield essentially seeks to neutralize any possibility of Russia to intercepting ,the defenses against a nuclear attack on their nation on mid course.. ,that is Russian defenses at Russian Borders.. allowing American nukes to penetrate deep inside Russia and enter Moscow airspace when it could be too late.. since on the final path.. ICBM like Tridents.. drops hundreds of decoys, and if you use a nuclear weapon warhead to intercept them... it could blind your own defenses to any other incoming attack.

So effectively Ukraine deploying ABM on its territory ,will be the biggest threat for RUssia possible from NATO.. it can't be worse.. why?

1)Because an ABM in Ukraine use ethnic Russians as human shield. So even if Russia destruction of the ABM is successful it will cause major unrest in Russia if thousands Russians civilians killed by the attack..

2) The ABM could be use offensively ..Missiles continue being missiles.. and armed with nuclear warhead to bomb Russia.. this could allow US deploy hundreds of missiles with nuclear warhead at Ukraine border aiming at moscow and in a preventive attack US launch them at Russia..

Forget what you know about Nuclear Deterrence , or what garry have said.. that no one will attack Russia because Russia have nukes.. that will be true if the nation attacking had any morals or values or integrity and care for its people.. USA is not that nation.. i posted before how US military advisors considered acceptable losing 40 to 80 million americans and cities destroyed.. if in the end they win the nuclear war.

All the people who are leading the hostilities against Russia in the west.. are billionaires ,with properties around the world.. they feel citizens of the world.. and they can happily moveto luxury residence in any tropical island or South American ,far away from the warzone and wait for the nuclear war to end and Russia destroyed.

What Russia is saying with the ukrainian suggestion of hosting ABM.. is that Russia will bombthe missiles ,with conventional precision weapons ,before they can be operated. And Russia willbe justified from their point of view ,because they rightly understand they are aimed against their nation and pose a major security threat ..to their nation security.

It will be like allowing a terrorist to park and car filled with bombs near your house.. even though is not in your territory ,is near enough to kill your family and blow your property.

Flagship Victory wrote:In the 1991 referendum, 86% of Kharkov oblast voted for independence from Ukraine. I think NAF should do an uprising in Kharkov oblast.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kharkiv_Oblast

It is important to remember that Maidan is not over. Donbas has resistance, so Maidan never accomplished its objectives, that is placing US military bases in eastern Ukraine. As of today, Maidan is nearly 2 years long. Compared to the Orange revolution where 1 guy died of heart attack, over 6,200 people have died in Maidan so far.

The 1991 referendum you reference was for Ukrainian independence from the USSR after the failed coup attempt in 1991. It was highly suspect as to a fair vote and the wording of the referendum was completely bias. By that time, Ukraine was already under the control of nationalistic forces as Gorbachev had ceded them complete power in Kiev. A prior vote held in 1990 showed a majority in Ukraine supporting remaining a part of the USSR so you can take the votes of 1991 with a grain of salt. In any event that was 1991, this is 24 years later. 24 years worth of older people born and raised in the USSR passing on. The younger generation has no memory of living with Russia and have been raised and schooled in a Russo-phobic environment (funded and supported by the West). Russia in the last 24 years did zero to counter this program so with each passing year Ukrainians, and Belorussians too, become less and less mentally connected to Russia.

Vann, the interceptors wont be able to all of a sudden take out Russias ibterceptors for the sheer fact that Russian interceptors are mobile, not the American ones, as well, how they intercept would be differrent (terminal stage vs warheads itself). As well, the abm systems dont even have close to 100% accuracy so it would be extremely hard to try to knock out interceptors which multiple of them would be launched to take out the US warhead.

Add in, ICBMs are not instant, so Russia will see them launched and attempt to coubter before they enter Russian airspace. Add in to that, once they see US nukes, it will retaliate with theirs and once those start flying, those abm systems will have no more missiles left when trying to hit those Russian ICBMs or SLBM's. A few ICBMs or SLBM's is game over for both sides once they reach into each others territory.

Ukraine government is kookoo crazy. Verkhovna Rada calls for sanctions against Mongolia for Khan genocide in 13th century

Anyway I like this

The world had never heard of any Ukrainian nation, especially in the era of Genhis Khan heirs. Millions of Ukrainians killed in 13th century is the fruit of unhealthy imagination among Ukrainian deputies.

VZ via Google Translate wrote: МВД Украины предложило привлечь иностранных полицейских к патрулированию улиц [b] Ukrainian Interior Ministry has offered to attract foreign police officers patrolling the streets [/b] May 19, 2015, 20:45 The Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine wants to attract foreign police officers patrolling the streets in the country, said Deputy Interior Minister Tigran Avakian. "A week ago, during the last meeting with our European partners, we came out with a proposal for the direct involvement of foreign police in joint patrols and performance features of the new patrol police, which will begin in the summer to work in Ukraine", - said Avakian. According to him, it is primarily of officers from countries where there is no "significant linguistic and mental barriers", reports "Ukrinform" . "We offered to involve the police in countries where there is no significant linguistic and mental barriers with Ukraine. This refers to Poland, Slovakia, the Baltic States ", - said the deputy minister. Continue reading. wrote:

VZ via Google Translate wrote: МВД Украины предложило привлечь иностранных полицейских к патрулированию улиц [b] Ukrainian Interior Ministry has offered to attract foreign police officers patrolling the streets [/b] May 19, 2015, 20:45 The Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine wants to attract foreign police officers patrolling the streets in the country, said Deputy Interior Minister Tigran Avakian. "A week ago, during the last meeting with our European partners, we came out with a proposal for the direct involvement of foreign police in joint patrols and performance features of the new patrol police, which will begin in the summer to work in Ukraine", - said Avakian. According to him, it is primarily of officers from countries where there is no "significant linguistic and mental barriers", reports "Ukrinform" . "We offered to involve the police in countries where there is no significant linguistic and mental barriers with Ukraine. This refers to Poland, Slovakia, the Baltic States ", - said the deputy minister. Continue reading. wrote:

What police officer anywhere would want to work in Ukraine?

I guess if they had an extreme right wing mindset, or couldn't get a job elsewhere it might be attractive, the language barrier would make them not so effective at interview or other police work, but the could be a grunt in a riot squad or something that didn't involve speaking much Ukrainian.

Museum expresses deep concern over two bills passed by the Ukrainian parliament in April.

Ukraine’s decision last month to extend official recognition to a nationalist militia that collaborated with the Germans during World War II has drawn condemnation from the US.

In a statement last week, the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum (USHMM) expressed deep concern over two bills passed by the Ukrainian parliament in April.

One allowed for official government commemoration of the Ukrainian Insurgent Army, an ultra-nationalist faction that sought to establish an independent Ukrainian state, while the second would ban propaganda and symbols associated with both the Nazi and Soviet regimes.

While the law’s prohibition on the use of such symbols does not apply within academic contexts, it does prevent broadcast media from airing material that “justifies the fight against participants in the struggle for Ukraine’s independence in the 20th century,” according to a translation of the law provided by the Kharkiv Human Rights Protection Group.

Such provisions, the USHMM claims, “attempt to legislate how the history of Ukraine should be discussed and written, especially regarding the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists (OUN) and the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA).”

“As Ukraine advances on its difficult road to full democracy, we strongly urge the nation’s government to refrain from any measure that preempts or censors discussion and politicizes the study of history,” the Washington- backed Holocaust memorial organization entreated. Continue reading.

As noted in the department, the total amount of fines airline "Aeroflot" is 194,344,000 USD, and all airline regulations challenged in the District Administrative Court of Kyiv. More than half of the court rulings are upheld, and for other litigation matters not yet finished. In meeting the 56 appeals against the decision of the District Administrative Court of "Aeroflot" has been denied. The court of appeal airline continues to appeal in cassation. Continue reading.

The column left the Ministry of Emergency Situations Ministry in the center of Rostov Region at 4:00 Moscow time.

Russian Emergency Situations Ministry sent to the Donbass 27th convoy. At 4:00 Moscow time, more than 100 trucks moved from Don rescue center Emergency Situations Ministry in Rostov region.

As described in the Ministry of Emergency Situations, the column is divided into two parts. After the trucks pass inspection, one part will go to Lugansk, and the second - in Donetsk.

"Failures in the movement of the column should arise. All the equipment has been checked before leaving it technically perfect. Rescuers route is already known thoroughly, but nevertheless with them held an additional instruction on driving in extreme situations and in difficult road conditions," - told in the Ministry of Emergency Situations.

Another gumkonvoy contains more than one thousand tons of cargo, consisting of food and basic necessities. Continue reading.

Former Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko has warned that Ukraine is falling out of the international spotlight, comparing his country to an “annoying fly” everyone is bored with. A new format is needed for resolving the conflict in Donbass, he said.

“The world is getting tired of the Ukrainian question,” Yushchenko told Segodnya. “We’re not even second or third on the agenda anymore – Ukraine is being swatted away as an annoying fly.” He added that the issue of Ukraine has become mundane and the international community is not paying as much attention to it anymore.

Yushchenko stressed the need to move to a new format where the EU, Russia and the US should get involved in negotiating an end to the conflict in Ukraine.

He also said that the loss of financial stability in Ukraine had led to greater economic damage than the war waged against the rebels in the east of the country. Continue reading.

Arsen Avakov's Facebook via Google Translate wrote:1 hr · Edited · Well done. Yesterday in Odessa.I thought that yesterday's story worth telling and generalizations without cuts - giving full information without the inaccuracies that were in some media.Yesterday at 14.30 in Odessa on the street. Panteleymonoskoy, 25 pharmacy "Good Day" came people. Threatening with a pistol and an explosive device, he took hostage two young girls, employees of pharmacies.At the scene police squads arrived on duty and the task force headed by the chief of the criminal police area, Colonel Golovin. After evaluating the threat and possible consequences, the colonel decided to encircle the perimeter of the evacuation of people and events. Was introduced plan "Thunder" and the place of the police special forces arrived.Golovin, agree on a plan to arrive at the scene, General Ivan Katerenchukom, began to negotiate with terrorists. He managed to persuade the latter - let girls in exchange for the hostages themselves.At 15.20 there was an exchange of employees for the pharmacy police colonel Golovin.In the course of the negotiations, a terrorist (as it turned out later - a resident of Odessa Tikhomirov BB born in 1965), put forward the following demands:1. To cure his sick mother.2. Call for an interview with journalists of the central TV channels.3. Change the constitutional order in Ukraine and join Russia to the Odessa region. Continue reading.

No, not at all to them and according to the ukropy propaganda over the past 23 years they are their very own ethnicity, because who do not want to be his own ethnicity with the name "Atboarder living" "SALA ATtheBOARDERlivings!" that is what Ukraine means.

No, not at all to them and according to the ukropy propaganda over the past 23 years they are their very own ethnicity, because who do not want to be his own ethnicity with the name "Atboarder living" "SALA ATtheBOARDERlivings!" that is what Ukraine means.

Probably many who have seen the ridiculous nonsense from ukrops about them existing as a seperate people for 40,000 years have discarded this as simplistic trolling propaganda. Yet the reality is worse, much worse. Major Ukranian historian Sergey Yekelchuk has written in 2007 to try and make it seem Ukranians have existed for 700,000 years. While he does not state specifically these humans, and surely he must mean hominids from that long ago, are actually Ukranians, the context in which he writes suggests that they were the ancestors. He leaps forward to the infamous 40,000 years ago and writes about clans of hunter gatherers living in the area north of the Black Sea, and again tho not directly, he leaves the door open to the possibility these may have been early ukrops. Then another leap to 6,000 years ago and we have the first name for a tribe, Trypillians. These are regarded by some as proto Ukranians. This bizarre "historian" does not even mention that certainly 6,000 years ago all Slavs were probably still one people in all language, religious and other cultural aspects, and yet he sees this one group that is seperate, "Ukranians". And he is what passes in Ukraine for "intelligentsia"

Original behind paywall:http://www.wsj.com/articles/in-ukraine-economic-ties-to-russia-are-hard-to-break-1431921181?cb=logged0.769006366841495

Berdychiv , Ukraine—Billboards here hail the army’s fight against Russia-backed separatists in the east of the country, the statue of Lenin has been torn down and activists have covered the word “Russia” on a bank sign with Ukraine’s yellow-and-blue flag.

But the director of the machine-building plant in this city, a two-hour drive west of Kiev, is treading a familiar path as he tries to revive flagging sales—to Russia.

“On the one hand, it’s our enemy, but we haven’t stopped trade. I have a thousand people at the factory. They all want to eat and feed their families,” says Ihor Shchesnyakov, the 46-year-old chief executive of the Progress plant.

Ukraine’s pro-Western government has been trying to pivot away from Russia. It signed an association agreement with the European Union, secured billions in loans and other aid from the West and passed a law calling for the removal of all Soviet symbols from the public sphere.

But turning its economy toward the West is a more arduous task. Much of its Soviet-era heavy industry has long-standing ties to Russia and struggles to compete in Europe.

The separatist conflict in eastern Ukraine drove the country’s exports to Russia down 61.3% to $1 billion in the first quarter of 2015 compared with last year, while exports to the EU slipped one-third to $3.3 billion, the State Statistics Service said on Friday.

Gross domestic product shrank 17.6% in the first quarter, with industrial output down by more than one-fifth, the agency said.

The worst hit are plants in or around the combat zone that have suffered damage to equipment or severe disruption to supply chains. But the erosion of the Russian market is also crippling factories hundreds of miles away like Progress, which for years has depended on Russian buyers for its industrial equipment and is struggling to find customers in the EU.

In its heyday in the 1980s, Progress was at the heart of life in this city of some 80,000 people, providing accommodation for its 7,600 employees as well as a sports hall and swimming pool. The bulk of the factory’s production—including filters used in the metals and mining industries—were shipped to Russia.

The factory suffered a series of blows starting with the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. By 2013, business was just beginning to pick up after the global financial crisis, Mr. Shchesnyakov says, before Moscow started putting “spokes in the wheels” in response to Ukraine’s pursuit of closer EU ties.

Russia barred some imports from Ukraine, started tougher customs checks on others and encouraged Russians to buy domestically. Orders from Russia have shrunk by two-thirds in the last two years, although they still account for half of sales as the domestic market has also contracted, Mr. Shchesnyakov says. Sales to Europe and the U.S. make up a tiny amount.

As a result, the remaining workforce of some 1,100 has had working hours cut. The average full-time salary is around 3,000 hryvnias ($150) a month.

Russian officials say Ukraine needs to join its nascent Eurasian Economic Union if it wants preferential trade ties, and has demanded that Ukraine rewrite its free-trade deal with the EU or face further restrictions.

At Progress, where a Soviet red star still stands over the main offices, the EU offers little hope.

“Europe isn’t waiting for us. We aren’t needed there,” says Mr. Shchesnyakov. “We are trying to push into the European market, but our share is very small, and it’s not growing.”

Others say owners used factories as cash machines, making insufficient investments to improve production or to break into new markets. “Technology in Europe is many times better,” says Hennadiy Losovskiy, deputy chief executive at Progress. The withering of Ukraine’s currency, the hryvnia, hasn’t helped the factory, as it relies on imported parts, he says, pointing to an Italian thermometer and a Slovakian meter on his desk.

Larger enterprises have also been hit, including pipe makers and railway-car manufacturers. The country’s largest steel mill, owned by the world’s biggest steelmakerArcelorMittal, has all but halted sales to Russia and is looking for new customers in the Middle East and North Africa.

“I’d be lying if I said that it was easy to sell to one market one year, and then quickly switch the same production to other countries,” Economy Minister Aivaras Abromaviciussaid in March. “We have to be realistic.”

Ukraine’s large agricultural exports, including grains, have fared much better, recording only a tiny dip in earnings last year, because they aren’t as dependent on the Russian market.

Volodymyr Vlasyuk, director of a consultancy that advises companies on selling abroad, said Ukraine’s best chance for recovery is for Western producers to use the country as a manufacturing site.

That model is helping one Berdychiv firm to flourish. The town’s main clothing factory was taken over by a Hungarian company over a decade ago, and now ships more than 90% of its products to Europe, said Chief Executive Halyna Stukalo.

The average monthly salary is 3,600 hryvnias ($175), topped up in recent months as the currency slid. Ms. Stukalo says the company recently made a new hire as a security guard: one employee’s husband, who used to work at Progress.

But the factory is an exception. Walls and lampposts here are covered with fliers offering jobs 200 miles to the west in Poland, an EU member.