Seasonal Climate Outlook Message for January to April 2003

The bottom line

Climate Watch (Dated 07/01/03)

A rather mixed seasonal outlook has developed across the state for January to March. There has been an improvement in the rainfall outlook for many western, central western and north western regions of the state (roughly west of the line from approximately Camooweal to Charleville). However for the south east corner of Queensland, the chance of above median rainfall remains relatively low at around 20-40%.

For example, currently there is a 68% chance of getting above the long term January to March median rainfall of 112mm at Quilpie. This compares with a 30% chance of getting above the long term January to March median rainfall of 440mm at Boonah.

While the improvement in rainfall probabilities across much of the state indicate the potential for some very useful relief rain, an El Nino sea temperature pattern still persists in the central Pacific Ocean. It is expected that this pattern is likely to persist in some form until at least autumn. We will monitor the situation on a monthly basis and inform readers when it becomes apparent that there is some measurable breakdown of this event.

Regular readers of this column would be aware of the influence of the 30-50day intra-seasonal oscillation (also know as the MJO). It is simply a band of low atmospheric pressure that originates off the east coast of central Africa travelling eastward across the Indian Ocean and northern Australia roughly every 30 to 50 days.

While it is mainly a tropical phenomenon, it appears to indicate the timing of potential rainfall events (but not indicate rainfall amounts) over central and southern Queensland.

The last passage of the MJO occurred in late December/early January and helped trigger some widespread storm activity. It is next expected late in mid February and it will be interesting to see if it helps trigger some more relief rainfall events.

For more specific rainfall data for your location refer to Australian Rainman or contact me through the DPI Call Centre on 13 25 23. The latest outlook maps are also available on the DPI climate page www.dpi.qld.gov.au/climate or on www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au

The full story

Mixed Seasonal Outlook For Queensland 07/01/03

A rather mixed seasonal outlook has developed across the state for January to March. There has been an improvement in the rainfall outlook for many western, central western and north western regions of the state (roughly west of the line from approximately Camooweal to Charleville). However for the south east corner of Queensland, the chance of above median rainfall remains relatively low at around 20-40%.

For example, currently there is a 68% chance of getting above the long term January to March median rainfall of 112mm at Quilpie. This compares with a 30% chance of getting above the long term January to March median rainfall of 440mm at Boonah.

While the improvement in rainfall probabilities across much of the state indicate the potential for some very useful relief rain, an El Nino sea temperature pattern still persists in the central Pacific Ocean. It is expected that this pattern is likely to persist in some form until at least autumn. We will monitor the situation on a monthly basis and inform readers when it becomes apparent that there is some measurable breakdown of this event.

Regular readers of this column would be aware of the influence of the 30-50day intra-seasonal oscillation (also know as the MJO). It is simply a band of low atmospheric pressure that originates off the east coast of central Africa travelling eastward across the Indian Ocean and northern Australia roughly every 30 to 50 days.

While it is mainly a tropical phenomenon, it appears to indicate the timing of potential rainfall events (but not indicate rainfall amounts) over central and southern Queensland.

The last passage of the MJO occurred in late December/early January and helped trigger some widespread storm activity. It is next expected late in mid February and it will be interesting to see if it helps trigger some more relief rainfall events.

The monthly value of the SOI for November was minus 4.1 and for December was minus 13.4. Based on these monthly values the SOI is in a "Rapidly Falling" phase. The 30day average of the SOI has risen slightly since the start of the month and as of the 6/1/03 is minus 9.2. Daily updated SOI values are available on (07) 46881439.

Other years that have had the same SOI phase in December include 1908, 12, 18, 34, 35, 40, 43, 48, 52, 72, 76, 91, 95 and 2001. What were rainfall patterns and farming conditions like for January to March in your area following those years?

Many producers and industry groups are interested in how climate forecasts can be used in management decisions. Some interesting case studies developed by the Climate Variability in Agriculture Program (CVAP) can be found at http://www.cvap.gov.au/mastersoftheclimate/

These case studies highlight how some producers have used climate information in their management decisions and are well worth reading.

Many producers have also found it beneficial to do a cost benefit analysis of any decisions with a climate risk factor. For example, what will I gain if I get the desired outcome from this decision? What will I lose if I do not get the desired outcome from this decision? What other options do I have?

As part of the QCCA science program an experimental climate forecast system has been developed based on the pattern of tidal forces exerted by the Sun and Moon. Analysis suggests that tidally derived cycles may contribute to climate features like the Southern Oscillation and Pacific equatorial SSTs. Since the pattern of tidal force is predictable for centuries to come, any such connection would have obvious significant effects on our ability to forecast climate patterns. For more information try http://www.dpi.qld.gov.au/climate/9470.html

For more specific rainfall data for your location refer to Australian Rainman or contact me through the DPI Call Centre on 13 25 23. The latest outlook maps are also available on the DPI climate page www.dpi.qld.gov.au/climate or on www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au