Raymond Aron, eminent French political analyst, told the American Jewish Committee yesterday that an American disaster in Southeast Asia could put into jeopardy “the present precarious balance in the Middle East.” Explaining that direct Russian intervention in the Middle East has been restrained by risk of a confrontation with the United States. Mr. Aron told the final-day session at the Committee’s 64th annual meeting: “Between the Vietnam war and the Israeli-Arab conflict there has been no direct connection, but this connection soon may be progressively created. An American disaster in Vietnam, a loss of confidence, a refusal of outside intervention by the Congress or the people may put in jeopardy the present precarious balance in the Middle East.”