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US S&P 500– Retail CFD traders remain extremely net-short the SPX500, which tracks the fair value of the S&P E-mini futures contract, and a contrarian view of ‘crowd’ sentiment has kept us firmly bullish. Our data shows there are a remarkable 10 open positions short for every 1 long—91 percent of all open positions are short.

The clear danger is that retail traders have often been ‘right’ at major trend turnarounds, and the extraordinarily net-short positioning warns of a potential top. But such extremes by definition are only clear in hindsight.

We will remain cautiously bullish until we see substantive evidence of a sentiment reversal.

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