Abstract

The International Prognostic Scoring Sytem (IPSS) is an important standard for assessing prognosis of primary untreated adult patients with myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS). To refine the IPSS, MDS patient databases from international institutions were coalesced to assemble a much larger combined database [Revised-IPSS (IPSS-R), n=7012, IPSS, n=816] for analysis. Multiple statistically weighted clinical features were used to generate a prognostic categorization model. Bone marrow cytogenetics, marrow blast percentage and cytopenias remained the basis of the new system. Novel components of the current analysis included: five rather than three cytogenetic prognostic subgroups with specific and new classifications of a number of less common cytogenetic subsets, splitting the low marrow blast percentage value, and depth of cytopenias. This model defined five rather than the four major prognostic categories that are present in the IPSS. Patient age, performance status, serum ferritin and LDH were significant additive features for survival but not for AML transformation. This system comprehensively integrated the numerous known clinical features into a method analyzing MDS patient prognosis more precisely than the initial IPSS. As such, this IPSS-R should prove beneficial for predicting the clinical outcomes of untreated MDS patients and aiding design and analysis of clinical trials in this disease.