Friday, March 25, 2011

Declining GOP Frontrunner Popularity

Much has been written about the weakness of the 2012 Republican Presidential candidate field but what I think might be most remarkable about the leading quartet of Mike Huckabee, Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, and Newt Gingrich is that they've all become more unpopular and by quite a good bit since we started monthly national 2012 polling in April of 2009. The fact that the more Americans are exposed to them, the less they like them certainly does not bode well for their competitiveness next year.

-In April 2009 Huckabee's favorability was +8 at 42/34. Now it's -7 at 35/42, for a 15 point drop over the last two years. His net drop has been 25 points with Democrats, 7 points with Republicans, and 19 points with independents.

-In April 2009 Romney's favorability was +5 at 40/35. Now it's -12 at 32/44, for a 17 point drop over the last two years. His net drop has been 25 points with Democrats, 18 points with Republicans, and 9 points with independents.

-In April 2009 Palin's favorability was -7 at 42/49. Now it's -22 at 35/57, for a 15 point drop over the last two years. Her net drop has been 19 points with Democrats, 18 points with Republicans, and 19 points with independents.

-In April 2009 Gingrich's favorability was -8 at 36/44. Now it's -31 at 26/57, for a 23 point drop over the last two years. His net drop has been 20 points with Democrats, 25 points with Republicans, and 33 points with independents.

This is a field dying for some new blood...and with even Republican voters souring on their frontrunners there might just be the appetite for it.

12 comments:

RC
said...

Interesting. The more voters get to know the GOP candidates, the less they like them.

I think George Will said it best in one of his columns: The tea party was a boon to the GOP in 2010, but long-term, the anti-immigrant, anti-government, anti-science, hell no to basic facts, incendiary rhetoric crowd, is a disaster for the GOP brand. The sad thing for the GOP candidates is that in order to win, they have to bow down to the extreme Limbaugh, Beck, Hannity, birther wing in their party. It's a rite of passage. They have created their own monster and bed. You reap what you sow.

'Most polls have Huckabee in the lead?' Keep swilling that... well, frankly, not even Fox is that misinformed. Republican-leaning RealClearPolitics (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_huckabee_vs_obama-1170.html) has a compilation of polls of Obama vs Huckabee, and a grand total of five polls in the last two years (four of them by PPP, none since October) have Huckabee in any sort of lead - and thirty-one polls have Obama in the lead, with an average of about 6% margin. Fox has Obama up by 8. The Wall Street Journal has Obama up by 10. McClatchy has Obama over Huckabee by 12.

And PPP is the only pollster out there who's producing state-level polling, which is the much more important factor... and Obama is winning in almost every permutation in the swing states.

You need to leave the world of numbers and embrace reality. The closer anybody comes to the reality of an election contest, the more stark the differences of opinion become, This applies to everybody, Republicans and Democrats alike. Favorability numbers are particularly lightweight since they are so vacuous to begin with. I frankly have no clue why pollsters use " Favorability " as a measure. Many respondees to your polling will " favor" candidate A over B but VOTE for B over A CraigS

They have created their own monster and bed. You reap what you sow.Absolutely. And recognize that Conservatives began sowing their crop of crazies in the late 1980's. (The early 1970's if the bornagainers qualify as early adopters) This demographic inertia is politically 'fatal'. Conservatives have written off the majority of a (3 decade) generation.

"And PPP is the only pollster out there who's producing state-level polling, which is the much more important factor... and Obama is winning in almost every permutation in the swing states."

And that is main reason why these guys cannot be trusted. They know they are the only ones polling so they can rig their numbers to favor Dems knowing full well there is no comparative poll to call them to account.

I said it before and I'll say it again: PPP is nothing more than a shill for Libs to get them all excited. When the rubber hits the road however, their numbers will fall back in line rather than the fly by night stuff we are getting from them these days.

I would NOT believe any polls from these guys on the Repubs until we get other "independent" pollsters in the mix. Then they will be less likely to "tweak" their samples to favor Libs since they know there will be credible comparative data out there.

With the rumors flying that Huckabee WON`T run, that leaves Iowa wide open for someone not in the quartet: The Northern Ice Queen from Minnesota, Michelle Bachmann (it looks like Sarah Palin won`t be coming to the dance, either).Given the similar GOP demographics in the 3rd primary state, South Carolina, Bachmann could be poised for a quick strike at the GOP nomination (I`m assuming that Romney will take New Hampshire).

After 20 years as a solid GOP voter (1968 to 1988) the Religious Right chased me right out the door. (I just wasn't graciously submissive enough, as prescribed by the Southern Baptist Convention.) Nothing that has happened since 1988 has invited me to return. I'd like to see two sane, grown up parties vying for my vote but based on actuarial figures it isn't going to happen in my lifetime.