Who Was Buying Iranian Oil And What Happens Next?

With Trump having started the 6 month process of pulling out from the Iranian nuclear deal (or rather as Steven Mnuchin admitted, Trump’s true intention is merely renegotiating the existing deal and “entering a new agreement”) the biggest concern among traders and analysts is what impact the Trump decision will have on Iran’s oil exports. As a reminder, some such as Barclays have suggested that Iran’s oil production may not be affected at all; others such as UBS predict the sanctions could lead to the reduction of oil exports by 200-500kb/d over the next 6 months. Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank notes that because of the 180-day wind down period, neither Iranian oil production nor exports will drop before the 5 November 2018 effective date. In fact, if behavior follows the example from 2012, there is the possibility of a short spike in Iranian exports just before the effective date, after […]