Liberals slide further as Conservatives make gains on security fears

The political landscape looks very different in the aftermath of last month’s two terror-linked shootings. Justin Trudeau’s Liberals have seen their fairly solid and stable 12-point lead collapse into a three-point lead.

The return of security as a political priority has propelled Stephen Harper’s Conservative party to heights it hasn’t seen in nearly two years — redrawing the political calculus around election timing. The Liberals and the NDP have faltered in the aftermath of these episodes and the Conservatives are close to the polling range which could see them returned to power.

The critical question is how durable these effects are, and whether they’ll affect Stephen Harper’s decision to respect or ignore the fixed election date. It is entirely possible that Mr. Harper may choose to go to the electorate early, with the opposition quite possibly ill-prepared to fight an election over terrorism.

The tracking on the more dominant long-term issue — the economy — suggests that there has been no improvement in public outlook on this front. That leads to the question of whether the Conservatives can improve on the gains they’ve made recently, as the public almost inevitably will turn the focus from security to jobs and Canada’s stagnant economy.

Although it is highly unlikely that the Conservatives were considering an early election call before last month, the bounce they’ve received from recent events is likely to dissipate as time goes on — and there’s little evidence they’ll fare well when attention returns to a moribund and unbalanced economy. There is little evidence that the public’s judgement of the incumbent’s economic and social record can produce a win. If the Conservatives’ poll numbers continue to improve, however, calling an election in the next few months might offer their best chance at success.

The Conservatives are doing well across the board and they now lead with men and the college educated; the Liberals still lead comfortably with women and university graduates. If there is good news to be found for progressive parties, it is that much of the Conservatives’ gains over the past few weeks have been concentrated in the Prairies. The inefficient over-concentration of party support in this region will penalize the Conservatives in terms of seat count, although it could crush any Liberal hopes of capturing seats in Alberta for the first time since 2004.

The Liberals continue to lead in Ontario and, interestingly, have captured a small lead in Quebec — both provinces which will be critical to the outcome of the 2015 election. Indeed, their newfound lead looks very similar to the constituency Jean Chrétien had going for him when he won three successive majorities. There is, however, very little good news for the NDP in this poll; they do not seem to lead in any area of the country and, at these figures, they would be reduced to a (rather distant) third place.

All of these movements appear to be driven almost entirely by the security-related events of the past few weeks. There is no evidence that income-splitting is behind this rise in Conservative fortunes. Canadians do not believe the economy is getting stronger; if anything, they see it as weakening. Fears over the short-term economic outlook have spiked in recent weeks, with the percentage of respondents saying they’ll be better off a year from now at an all-time low.

These movements seem to be the result of a sharp rise in the status of security over other political issues and principles. As late as July, half of Canadians were calling for a strong focus on guaranteeing civil liberties. Today, the plurality wants more security. Similarly, Canadians are now much less averse to granting increased powers to police and intelligence agencies than they were just three months ago (although the plurality still says personal privacy should take precedence).

It is important to remember, however, that security effects in reaction to a crisis are not unheard of and are seldom permanent. Polling the United States has shown that support for the military mission against Islamic State is rising, even though it is almost certain to decline over time; no military conflict in recent history has failed to show this pattern. The critical question here is how long these patterns might last — and whether they can persist through the next election.

All in all, a very different political landscape has evolved over the last few weeks. However, it is important to note that none of the individual changes are particularly dramatic in and of themselves. The Liberals and NDP, while down, have not plummeted. Similarly, the Conservatives, while up, have not soared. Rather, it is the combination of these three movements (coupled with an unexpectedly stronger performance from the Green Party) that has created a dramatically different race.

If these patterns lock in as the new normal, we will have to start asking ourselves whether we are once again looking at the prospect of the dreaded coalition. When the polls were pointing to a Liberal minority, the prospect of a coalition government was almost laughable. With the Conservatives in striking distance of the lead (recall that the Conservatives won a 39.6-point majority when they were consistently polling at around 36 points),it has become an increasingly feasible (albeit unlikely) possibility.

Our internal seat projections suggest that at these figures, the Liberals and NDP combined would capture roughly 60 per cent of the seats (in addition to 54 of the popular vote). A coalition under these circumstances would be a much more realistic arrangement than the proposed Dion-led coalition that would have required the combined support of the Liberals, the NDP and the Bloc Québécois. It is unlikely that Canadians would object to a government that, one way or another, garnered a majority of the vote.

However, this entire discussion may very well be moot. If these shifts are indeed being driven by short-term fears over security, the recent rise in Conservative fortunes will not be sustainable and the polls may simply return to where they were a month ago. Nevertheless, it is a worthwhile conversation — a government made of different parties and based on compromise and negotiation could more fairly represent Canada’s diverse political views and may very well satisfy Canadians’ stated desire for change.

Frank Graves is founder and president of EKOS research.

Methodology:

This study was conducted using High Definition Interactive Voice Response (HD-IVR™) technology, which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone, rather than telling them to an operator. In an effort to reduce the coverage bias of landline only RDD, we created a dual landline/cell phone RDD sampling frame for this research. As a result, we are able to reach those with a landline and cell phone, as well as cell phone only households and landline only households.

The field dates for this survey are November 4-6, 2014. In total, a random sample of 1,561 Canadian adults aged 18 and over responded to the survey. The margin of error associated with the total sample is +/-2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, education). All the data have been statistically weighted by age, gender, region, and educational attainment to ensure the sample’s composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data.

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76 comments on “Liberals slide further as Conservatives make gains on security fears”

It’s not the attack that did it. It’s the action in Iraq. Most Canadians realize this isn’t the same as the last Iraq war and support taking action against ISIS. That’s what ticks me off the most about how opposition parties handled it. We can’t afford four more years of Harper. We simply can’t.

I’d love a coalition government. it would take a few years but maybe after a while we’d learn how to be more like modern Sparta, you know Switzerland?… that whole neutral peace maker vibe is very Canadian.. we don’t need to harvest soldiers to send to the Vatican though..

These polls are a huge change from the last one where Harper was losing which makes one wonder who exactly they are polling. To change so drastically over some admittedly terrible incidents done by mentally ill people is beyond understanding. Most Canadians know that Mental Health Care is almost non-existent in Canada and that the jails and shelters are full of them because there is no place to treat them. Harper cannot be surging in the polls overnight. These polls are flawed and the elections in the past prove it. We should not being paying any attention to them. We should just be making sure that everyone eligible that we know votes and that way the bad guys can be stopped. Imagine the governing party gave Del Maesto a standing ovation! Unbelievable.

You’re so right on here!
And another VERY important thing is for all of us to ignore the damned pundits and press who
persist in their push for Harper.
They have become so irrelevant it’s shocking yet encouraging, too.
Canadians are thinking for themselves, researching and reading everything they can and listening to their own wise voices.
The media voices are even worse offenders as their sole mandate is to tell the truth!
Don’t know about you, but I am sick to death of the tentative waffling and sycophancy spilling out of all of them. Some of them are truly showing their duplicity in their mere presence.
We see through it all.

Everyone should have solid civics education and training in critical thinking before leaving high school. Apparently, “media awareness” is taught, but I doubt that it’s taught with respect to political messages.

Most people seem to vote solely out of self-interest. Who keeps me safe (after scaring me in the first place), and who gives me money? Sod the rest, sod democracy, sod the country. It’s extremely disturbing.

It’s not the opposition that’s ill-prepared to fight an election on terrorism, it’s Harper. He has angered both serving soldiers and veterans by his treatment of returning vets, especially those injured inside and/or out, while VA lapsed $136 million in funding. He’s not prepared to make up for the millions in deferred maintenance, in training budgets, or in hardware — since he’s saving up for planes of dubious merit. I am truly afraid of what happens if he succeeds in picking fights with thugs overseas…

The problem with all of this is that it ignores statistics. Polling companies have to provide explanations and reasons for the changes in numbers to justify their fees. But no other explanation than chance is factually appropriate unless the changes between polls fall outside the margin of error. Even if they do, claiming that a single factor is responsible for that change is grasping at best.

At least in the case of Ekos there is an upward trend for the Conservatives. But they are by far not the only polling company in the game. Éric Grenier does a meta-analysis of sorts on all the polls reporting national voting intention over at threehundredeight.com. This helps smooth out the randomness inherent in sampling methodology not only between companies, but within companies. Looking at this paints a different picture.

The Conservatives are on an upward trend since last October. However, it is almost exactly the same trend as the Liberals. Meaning that the gap between them will not narrow any time soon. The NDP is losing ground. If current trends over the last 12 months hold to election day, which is a very big if, the following will be voting intentions.

Liberals: 37.8%
Conservatives: 32%
NDP: 19.8%
Green: 6.4%
BQ: 1.8%

If you think maybe there has been a short term spike, even looking just at the last 6 months of aggregate polling data, it is no different. Except that in this case the upward trend of the Liberals is stronger than that of the Conservatives and will lead to a wider gap come election time.

Of course, voters are fickle, and intentions can change overnight. And this all only takes into account voter intentions. How many actually vote and what they end up deciding in the ballot box is difficult to predict.

Mr. Grenier is not too shabby with his system. His average error in predicted voting percentage versus actual voting percentage is 2.2% per party per election. His seat projection performance is not as great, at 6.6 average seats in error per party per election. However, in the last few major elections in Canada (Quebec, Ontario, and BC provincial and 2011 Canada federal), he’s correctly predicted 83%, 91%, 82%, and 76% of ridings, respectively. Especially on the federal level, predicting 3 of every 4 seats correctly is pretty fantastic. However, it translates to an average per party seat error of almost 20 seats. That could make a huge difference in what the government looks like at the end of the day.

All of which is to say that polls are interesting, and fun for numbers junkies like myself. But assigning meaning to every single poll, including etiology for the changes, is about as useful as predicting long term market changes using daily swings on the TSX and saying it was obviously due to the recent jobs report, or oil prices, or a new tax bill, etc.

You know the Libtards are in trouble when Franky the Liberal Graves says so. Franky fudges his numbers in favour of the Libtards so you can bet the Libtards are trailing by threefour points. Too bad for the Libtards! Maybe Franky can coach Justin…???

If one is to believe the recent polls then probably the best solution would be for Alberta and Saskatchewan to join and become their own separate little Harper Fiefdom where both Provinces and population can enjoy living under a dictatorship…I for one would not miss them at all….

Whichever party reverses the mass immigration transformation of our cities, stops allowing big business to import cheap labour en masse, and forces the education system to return to higher standards with an emphasis on pro cultural values instead of insufferable identity politics and liberal white guilt will win the elections by a landslide.

I wish people in opposition would consider the possibility that all these attacks since and including 9-11 have been horseshit. Pretty hard to stand up to something if you’re going along with it, isn’t it ?

So because you believe there’s no alternative, you would vote these people back into power to continue the selling out of our country and killing traditional democratic institutions to further their agenda???? You deserve everything you get if that happens.

Try not to lose that faith.
The very fine Jean-Pierre Kingsley bluntly (and eloquently as always) stated that he suspects that the
Harper gang is busy working on ‘new ways to cheat.’
Absolutely a chilling moment hearing him but we all MUST really push and pull everyone we can find to
get out and vote. If we do that, and truly don’t relent, there’s no doubt that we can rid ourselves of these
unbalanced megalomaniacs.
Our will and our power can change the course of history and rebuild this beautiful country which has been so betrayed by Harper and his damned spineless puppets.

Unlikely that Canadians would object to a coalition of parties that garnered the majority of votes??????? Really Mr. Graves and on what basis do you make that assertion? I assure you that Canadians will not allow the losers to go to the Govenor General in an attempt to form government. Canadians have been very clear on this. We are fine with minority governments, not coalitions of losers.

I suppose you’ll say they’re illegal as well. Many coalition governments function very well around the world.

Don’t speak for others on this issue – some people would not like to see a coalition government, others would.

One thing’s for sure: if it comes to that, you can bet Harper will do everything he can, including strongarm his man, the GG, to prevent loss of power. He might even suddenly become more sympathetic to the NDP. I wouldn’t put anything past him.

This Liberal poll is contradicted by the recent Ekos poll in Quebec that shows the NDP over 10 points ahead of the Liberals in Quebec – with an even greater gap in favour of the New Democrats among francophones!.
And does anyone really believe the Green party will poll 24% in Sask? – what rubbish.
The gradual Liberal decline from the lofty heights of a year ago continues as growing numbers of Canadians are aware of Justin’s inexperience, lack of accomplishment and gravitas. In Quebec – where he is known best – his negatives are almost as high as his positives – according to CROP polling.
Here in BC – except for several Martini Heights ridings where the Liberals have historic roots – the battle is between the New Democrats and the Conservatives. And the poor performance of the corrupt BC Liberal government is not helping the brand .

Take heart all passionate Canadians! and read Party of One. Michael Harris has delivered a masterpiece.
Crawford Kilian’s review of the book in The Tyee is a must read.
Although our so called press luminaries are doing their damnedest to ignore this powerful very readable
and important book, we citizens are driving the sales skywards!
It’s a MUST READ and a great Christmas gift!
Happy reading and share it with as many as you can!

I weep for my country if these reformacons get reelected. In fact, I already do; we have lost and changed so much, yet people still do not get it. They see the sun come up and assume all is as it was. Yet so many of their recent freedoms, protections and hopes for prosperity are gone now, never mind the values and promise of being Canadian in the rough world. It s all about money now and the ugly few who get and keep it. They lie and fight and divide, and have destroyed the very democracy they feign to embrace under those evil “omnibus” acts.

It s up to the young; we’ve screwed up, although many of us always fought for a better place that has been trampled unforseen. Their vote can still let them rebuild; if they do not take this opportunity, their terrible future is on them as much as the rest of us.

Usual gutter tears, it’s up to the young, but don’t dare try and take away our entitlements. Whining never accomplishes anything and neither does quitting. Start a business, volunteer your time, or visit the sick. You want the world to change, it has to start with you.

Well dude, I’m 80 years old. Most of my adult life has been in social activism. Because of it, I have no pension or entitlements of any kind. Only CPP, OAS and GIS. But I wouldn’t take back a day. So IMO, it’s time the younger generation got out of the basement, away from their gadgets and work like hell for their country and the betterment of our future.

Yes, instead let Trudeau have your vote and your money and take more of it. He’s already said as much, and worse, he want’s to take more of our freedoms as well. You’d really need to have the IQ of a fence post to vote for the Liberals or the NDP.

Given the last couple of days in Ottawa Mr. Graves, your hopes of defeating the Conservative via a Liberal/NDP coalition grow dimmer all the time. You might have a better chance if you advise your Liberal pals to start another cultural war – this time with the NDP in Quebec. LOL!

Look I know it is a problem for all you Lefties, typing away in the darkness of your parent’s basements. Especially when your brains are frazzled by all that gaming online 24/7. But try to read with understanding would you? It was Mr. Graves of Ekos who raised the coalition question again in this article. Try and read all the way through this time would you? And then you can go back to the TV soaps and that grand theft whatever crap you are into, until mom calls you for supper or the welfare check arrives.

Well sunshine, I m sitting in my own kitchen after a lifetime of working extremely hard to make this country better for everyone here, even you money grubbers. I never considered myself left or right, as so many others didn’t until the divisive new republican “reformers” came along and took over and divided a decent country like marauding barbarians. You can fantasize all you like about who is unhappy with what you are doing, but there are a whole load of real people out here who are not impressed. You ve had your best shot and you ve made nothing better and too many things much worse. Your days are numbers one way or another. We d just like to see the least amount of damage done in your removal.

OhI don’t think so, mommy’s basement is where most of you live. But if you are in your 60s then maybe it’s time to check your glasses and get a new perscription. Then way you would have read the article completely through and seen where Graves brought up the coaltion issue. Right?

I agree and I was once an Albertan but fortunately got out of the Province in my early 20’s. I cannot understand how in this so-called day of enlightenment there still exists pockets of people who remain so ignorant…

Yes, the fact no one wants to live there so everyone god damn left making the wages high, and their total investment into mining (sustainable until the mines are gone) and oil (gamble considering how cheap renewable are getting) make you know that alberta is the shiniest of the shiny turds.

1) I did not buy a tesla yet, but I can’t wait. Why, do you hate cars or something?

2) I will get back to my videogames, being that my job is making them. What, are you anti small business owners or something?

3) That was meant to be more joking then anything, but of course you missed out on that (I assume you were schooled in alberta?). Alberta suffers – or, benefits, really, from high natural resources and low population. But if you want to use THAT as a metric, then ontario is shit and alberta is also shit. Long live the north west terrirories – they completely destroy you guys for GDPPC.