What Will the Directors Guild Awards Tell Us About a Crazy Oscar Race?

Two weeks ago, I wrote about how the Producers Guild Awards were going to clear up a confusing Oscar race and give us a real frontrunner.

I suppose they did, briefly. But the PGA winner, “The Big Short,” is hardly a secure favorite. In a wild, confusing year, that movie grabbed the top seed by winning the Producers Guild, but then couldn’t hold serve the following week at the Screen Actors Guild Awards, where it lost the ensemble award to its chief competitor, “Spotlight.”

But SAG by itself wasn’t enough to make “Spotlight” a favorite — so once again, the focus shifts to the next major guild honors, the Directors Guild of America Awards on Saturday.

Over the last 20 years, 16 winners at the Directors Guild Awards have gone on to win the Oscar for Best Director, and 15 of their films have won Best Picture.

The four Oscar frontrunners are all represented with DGA nominations: Alejandro G. Inarritu for “The Revenant,” Tom McCarthy for “Spotlight,” Adam McKay for “The Big Short” and George Miller for “Mad Max: Fury Road.” And so is Ridley Scott, mysteriously bypassed by the Academy’s Directors Branch for “The Martian,” but still a formidable challenger within his guild.

For those interested in sifting the tea leaves, the Directors Guild Awards could be the final big opportunity to learn anything. The last of the major guild awards, the Writers Guild of America Awards, won’t be nearly as helpful in deciphering the Oscar race: Because “The Revenant” wasn’t eligible and because “Mad Max” is all action rather than dialogue, the only Oscar frontrunners also nominated by the WGA are “Spotlight” and “The Big Short.”

And they’re in separate categories where they will most likely emerge with twin victories, “Spotlight” for original screenplay and “The Big Short” for adapted. That means the WGA won’t help much — and that means it’s up to the DGA to clarify things a bit.

The trouble is, it’s not hard to imagine any one of the five directing nominees winning — but of those five possible outcomes, only two would do much in the way of clearing up the Oscar race. The other three would take a confusing race and potentially make it even more confusing — or even more fun and entertaining, if you actually like the idea of going into Oscar night with some genuine suspense.

Here’s what could happen, and what it could mean.

Adam McKay wins for “The Big Short”
This would come the closest toward giving us a real frontrunner, because “The Big Short” has already won the most accurate predictor from among the guilds, the Producers Guild. (They’re the only guild that uses the Academy’s preferential system of vote-counting.) Adding the second-most accurate, the DGA, would make it hard to bet against the film, particularly if it then follows with an expected WGA win.

But for McKay to win, the directors would have to go for a guy known for broad comedies like “Anchorman” over the iconic likes of Miller, Scott and Inarritu. If that happens, he’ll clearly be the man to beat on Oscar night.

Tom McCarthy wins for “Spotlight”
In a way, “The Big Short” and “Spotlight” are fighting for the same voting constituency, so a DGA victory would mean as much to the latter as it would to the former — or even more, since the win it does have, SAG ensemble, is the least reliable at predicting a Best Picture win. Clearly, another major guild award — and another guild that goes for “Spotlight” over “Big Short” — would be a big boost that would put the two films neck-and-neck going into the big show.

And like “Big Short,” “Spotlight” is expected to win a WGA award, which would give the film a formidable three major guild awards going into the Oscars. The only films to win three guilds and not win Best Picture in the last 20 years were “Brokeback Mountain,” “Little Miss Sunshine” and “Apollo 13.”

Alejandro G. Inarritu wins for “The Revenant”
So far, the wins for “The Revenant” have been limited to Leonardo DiCaprio taking one best-actor award after another — and if it doesn’t win at the DGA, that’s likely to be its fate at the Oscars, too, denying Inarritu the chance to become the first director to win back-to-back picture and director Oscars. (He won last year with “Birdman.”)

But a lot of voters are impressed by Inarritu’s massive undertaking, and a DGA win would go a long way toward making it a serious rival to “The Big Short” and “Spotlight” — particularly among voters inclined toward something less talky and more muscular.

A DGA win wouldn’t mean more than the Producers Guild award that “The Big Short” won, so it wouldn’t give us a new favorite. But it would make the race a real nail-biter.

George Miller wins for “Mad Max: Fury Road”
Miller has lots of critics’ awards, but he needs to show that his reinvention of the action movie has muscle with the guilds, too. After losing at the Producers Guild (and being overshadowed by “Star Wars” and “The Revenant” at the Visual Effects Society’s VES Awards), “Mad Max” has seemingly slipped to fourth place among the frontrunners, something that a win at the DGA would quickly change.

As with Inarritu and “The Revenant,” a DGA win for Miller wouldn’t automatically make “Mad Max” an Oscar favorite, but it would tighten the race.

Ridley Scott wins for “The Martian”
Since Scott wasn’t even nominated by the Academy, this won’t tell us a damn thing — unless you believe in the possibility of a “Ridley was snubbed” narrative taking hold and leading to an upset Best Picture victory for the film.

That seems unlikely, so a Scott win would mostly retain a very unsettled status quo, with “The Big Short” continuing as an uneasy frontrunner.

We’ll know a few answers by about 11 p.m. on Saturday night. But given the kind of year it’s been so far, it might be foolish to pretend we’ll have any real answers.

SURPRISE: Tom Hardy, nominated Best Actor, “The Revenant”Leonardo DiCaprio has dominated conversations surrounding the grueling shoot and high art of "The Revenant," but Hardy suffered right alongside him -- and was rewarded with a Best Supporting Actor nomination.

Fox

SNUB: "Carol," not nominated Best PictureTodd Haynes' dreamy period piece fetched acting, score and cinematography nominations but was shut out of the Best Picture race.

SNUB: Ridley Scott, not nominated Best Director, "The Martian"The exclusion of Ridley Scott from the Best Director category is enough to make you want to move to Mars. While the longtime movie maestro claimed a Golden Globe award, he was left off of the 2016 list entirely, presumably bumped by surprise nominee Lenny Abrahamson.

SNUB: Idris Elba, not nominated Best Actor, “Beasts of No Nation” The excessively likable and highly pedigreed Elba could not earn a spot among the Best Actor crowd for “Beasts of No Nation” despite his edgy positioning with hot director Cary Fukunaga and streaming release platform Netflix.

Netflix

SURPRISE: Lenny Abrahamson, nominated Best Director, "Room"Sure, the director’s “Room” is an emotional marathon and, frankly, a technical feat for creating a universe within those tiny walls -- but it was surely a surprise to hear his name called for Best Director over Ridley Scott’s.

TheWrap

SNUB: “See You Again,” not nominated Best Original Song, "Furious 7"Wiz Khalifa and Charlie Puth’s “Furious 7” anthem served not only as a radio hit but also a tribute to the late Paul Walker. It was all but guaranteed that the creative eyebrows of Puth and NBA-level tattoos of Khalifa would suit up to claim a Best Original Song Oscar come February. Sorry boys, maybe we’ll see you again.

Universal

SNUB: Amy Schumer, not nominated Best Original Screenplay, "Trainwreck"America’s acidic sweetheart Schumer was a fledgling leading lady in Universal’s “Trainwreck,” but had a serious shot at Best Original Screenplay for her comedy with Bill Hader and Brie Larson.

Universal

SURPRISE: “Inside Out,” nominated Best Original ScreenplayAny Pixar film is a presumed nominee if not winner, but it was unexpected to see the Amy Poehler-fronted film nominated for Best Original Screenplay. We imagine all the writers attached are feeling only Joy.

Disney

SNUB: Johnny Depp, not nominated Best Actor, “Black Mass"Forget the Ed Harris makeup — Johnny Depp did an extraordinary job playing Whitey Bulger in Warner Bros. “Black Mass.” Many thought the A-lister would be among peers like Leonardo DiCaprio in the Best Actor category.

Warner Bros.

SURPRISE: Charlotte Rampling, nominated Best Actress, "45 Years"Charlotte Rampling was nominated for her role in "45 years" in the Best Actress category along with Jennifer Lawrence, Cate Blanchett, Brie Larson and Saoirse Ronan. Rampling was a strong contender in October, but no one really talked about the film throughout the rest of award season. For example, she didn't receive a Golden Globe or SAG nomination.

Artificial Eye

SNUB: Will Smith, not nominated Best Actor, "Concussion"He delivered a spectacular performance as Dr. Bennet Omalu in "Concussion," but Will Smith didn't receive a nomination in the Best Actor category despite making everyone's radar following his Golden Globes nom.

Sony/Columbia

SURPRISE: "The 100-Year Old Man Who Climbed Out The Window and Disappeared," nominated Achievement in Makeup and HairstylingFor the Danish film to be nominated at all came as a complete surprise because most hadn't even heard of this film. Released in May in only 76 theaters, it grossed $944,000 dollars. It took the place within the Makeup and Hairstyling category of films like "Cinderella," "The Danish Girl," "Ex Machina," "Black Mass" and "Star Wars," which all received Makeup Guild Awards nominations.

Music Box Films

SNUBS: "Peanuts"/"Minions"/"Good Dinosaur," not nominated Best Animated FeatureThose three films were left out of the nominations for Best Animated Feature, replaced by surprises "Boy and the World" and "When Marnie Was There." "Minions" is an especially surprising omission because it made $336 million domestically and broke several box office records for Universal at the time.

Universal/Fox/Pixar

SNUB: Aaron Sorkin, not nominated Best Screenplay, "Steve Jobs"Sorkin is known as one of the best living screenwriters, and his adaptation of Walter Isaacson's "Steve Jobs" was one of this year's most anticipated scripts. Sorkin also received praise for the unique structure he established for the film, receiving a Golden Globe award for Best Screenplay on Jan. 10.

Getty Images

SNUB: Todd Haynes, not nominated Best Director, "Carol"Many who saw the film "Carol," starring lead and supporting actress nominees Cate Blanchett and Rooney Mara, praised it for how artfully it was put together. That makes Haynes' absence in the Best Director field perplexing.

Getty Images

SNUB: Steven Spielberg, not nominated Best Director, "Bridge of Spies"Spielberg directed "Bridge of Spies," one of the most well-received films of the year, yet, the two-time Oscar winner was left out of the Best Director category by the Academy this year.

Getty Images

SNUB: Tom Hanks, not nominated Best Actor, "Bridge of Spies"The two-time Academy Award winner delivered another stellar performance in "Bridge of Spies," but didn't receive a Best Actor nomination for the film, despite its six total noms. The film's supporting actor, Mark Rylance, was nominated for an Oscar this year.

Disney

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The Academy sprung some last-minute names — and shut out sure things from awards season

Steve Pond, awards editor at TheWrap, is also author of the L.A. Times bestseller The Big Show. He has been covering entertainment for more than two decades, and is the industry's most knowledgeable Academy Awards prognosticator.