Titans vs. Jaguars odds, line: Thursday Night Football picks and best predictions from model on 14-3 run

An AFC South rivalry will be renewed on Thursday Night Football as the Tennessee Titans take on the Jacksonville Jaguars at 8:20 p.m. ET. The Titans are staying afloat in the AFC Wild Card race at 6-6, while the Jaguars have been one of the biggest disappointments of the season. After a 2-0 start that included a dominant win over the Patriots, they're now 4-8. The Titans won the first meeting this season in a battle of field goals, 9-6, back in September. The spread has been climbing ahead of kickoff, moving from Tennessee -4 to -5.5 in the latest Titans vs. Jaguars odds. The Over-Under, or total number of projected points oddsmakers believe will be scored, has dropped to 37 after opening at 38. Before you make your Titans vs. Jaguars picks and predictions for Thursday Night Football, check out the projections from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

The advanced computer model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, and those who have followed it have seen massive returns. SportsLine's proprietary computer model went 176-80 last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Office Pool players in 2016 and '17. It also performed better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000.

The model has continued to nail its top-rated picks in 2018, entering Week 14 on a blistering 14-3 run. For the season, it is now 28-12 on all top-rated picks, extending its two-year run to a strong 76-46. And when it comes to all straight-up picks, the model is 129-61 on the season, ranking in the top two on NFLPickWatch.com.

Now the model has dialed in on Jaguars vs. Titans. We can tell you it's leaning over, and it's also generated a strong point-spread pick that's hitting over 50 percent of the time. You can only see that one over at SportsLine.

The model has factored in that the Titans' top-five pass defense will have the luxury of sitting on quick-hitting routes, a major advantage over Jacksonville. In Jaguars quarterback Cody Kessler's first start against the Colts last week, 12 of his 24 pass attempts didn't go more than two yards down the field in the air and only three of his attempts for the day went further than eight.

With the tape from last week as a guide, that should free up the Titans' Malcolm Butler, Logan Ryan and Adoree' Jackson to jump a few routes and make life more difficult for Kessler than the Colts could manage last week.

And while the Titans aren't prolific turnover creators, the numbers show that when they can at least tie the turnover battle, it bodes well for them. They're 6-1 this season when they win or match the turnover battle and 0-5 when they lose it.

But just because the Titans boast a solid defense doesn't mean they'll cover the Thursday Night Football spread.

The model also knows that one big advantage for the Jaguars will be the pressure they routinely get on the quarterback courtesy of defensive ends Calais Campbell and Yannick Ngakoue. Both have seven sacks this season, but their ability to impact the game goes beyond disrupting the passing game.

Campbell has registered 15 quarterback hits this season and Ngakoue has an incredible 25. The Titans have given up 42 sacks this season, so if Campbell and Ngakoue can live in the Titans' backfield, it could be a long night for Mariota.

Jaguars running back Leonard Fournette is expected to return to action after serving a one-game suspension for throwing haymakers against the Bills. In Fournette's five games played this season, he's found the end zone five times and has scored multiple touchdowns twice. He has yet to eclipse 100 yards rushing in a game, but has added over 40 yards receiving twice. Fournette will also be well rested since he last played on Nov. 25. He'll face defensive linemen going on just four days' rest.