The Newt Surge is official. Over the last week, Gingrichs Intrade odds of winning the nomination rose from 16% to 39%. Romney has faded a little but still leads with 47% odds. No one else is above 5% odds.

The polls are even more stunning. Rasmussen shows Gingrich leading 38%-17% in a national poll. Real Clear Politics lists polls with Gingrich leading Romney by 15-30 points in Florida, South Carolina and Iowa, and trailing Romney by only 10 points in New Hampshire.

In the general election match-up, Rasmussen has Gingrich leading Obama by 2% and Romney trailing Obama by 6%. Romney is typically competitive with Obama. The tier-two GOP candidates usually trail Obama by double digits.

As a result of this data, we believe only Romney and Gingrich have a realistic hope of winning the 2012 GOP nomination. We believe that only Romney, Gingrich and Paul have a sufficient following to justify continuing.

That's the whole point. The establishment wants it that way. They want the nominee to be chosen just like the Republican gubernatorial nominee is selected in states like Ohio...when it's Joe Blow's "turn" because he's been such a loyal RINO party man for 25 years.

Everybody wants to freeze the field when their choice is at the top. By your standard, Gingrich shouldn’t even be in the race, because he should have dropped out when Perry surged in August. And of course when Cain surged in October.

Forget it! People just want to bitch about Newt on a couch, giving amnesty that he never proposed, and that he has been married three times. They don’t want to be faced with any real substance. When I hear Gingrich, I feel hope and possibilities for the first time in three years.

Who knows? Paul will do better in caucuses than primaries on average. Newt will likely be hit very hard in the next month.

It remains to be see whether Newt is a flavor of the month or not. There’s a lot to hit Newt with, and he’ll get hit. Every candidate knows that has to happen. So it’ll happen.

Someone could win Iowa with 21%. If Santorum keeps working hard, he could get 10% or more. Bachmanns a neighbor, she could get 10%. Cain hangs in there, he gets 10%. Give 5 to Perry and 5 to Huntsman. Gingrich, Romney, Paul all at 20%.

It’s a fairly realistic potential scenario.

I can’t believe that the Iowa Evangelicals want multiple adultery and divorce Gingrich. So they might go to Santorum or Bachmann.

If it is Mitt, I'll hold my nose and vote for him. He is not a Marxist like Zero is. We are not electing someone for sainthood. Even Jesus was for taxes, if he was running, some of us would not vote for him.

If it is Mitt, I'll hold my nose and vote for him. He is not a Marxist like Zero is. We are not electing someone for sainthood. Even Jesus was for taxes, if he was running, some of us would not vote for him.

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