DFS Pivot Plays week 7 2017

By Armando Marsal

Focusing on ownership percentages is critical and finding players that have potential to produce similar numbers (or even better) than higher owned players, will put you in a good position to leap frog in tournament standings and give you a better chance to have a unique lineup. Ultimately, that increases your chances for potentially higher finishes in tournaments. In cash games, focusing on ownership is not important. With that said, let’s jump right into some of this week’s pivot plays. Please note: I am only using players from the Sunday slate.

Quarterback

ChalkTyrod Taylor $5,100 vs. Tampa Bay BuccaneersI am expecting for Taylor to be popular this weekend for numerous reasons. For starters, he is just way too cheap. I am fully aware that he has not done all that well this season, averaging just 14.1 DraftKings points and 182 passing yards per game. However, this is just too good of a matchup. The Bucs are giving up the third most fantasy points (20) per game and have allowed 1,544 passing yards and 10 touchdowns in five games. They have also surrendered a rushing touchdown to opposing signal callers, which bodes well for Taylor who has seven or more rushes in all but one game. He has upside despite not displaying it much this season and this could be a game where he shows it off.

Pivot Jared Goff $5,800 vs. Arizona CardinalsGoff has performed much better in favorable matchups this season and this is exactly that. He scored at least 18 fantasy points against the 49ers, Cowboys, and Colts. The Cardinals are yielding 263.3 passing yards per game and have allowed 13 passing touchdowns, while yielding the fifth most fantasy points per game. The young quarterback has been streaky this season, but has shown that he is capable of 2-3 touchdown and 300+ yard games. He is going to go virtually unowned and offers similar upside to Taylor in this spot

Running Backs

ChalkMark Ingram $6,700 at Green Bay PackersIngram is $2,300 more expensive than he was last week, but that is not going to keep ownership down here. He is coming off of a huge game and gets a very good matchup this week. The Packers are yielding 102.8 rushing yards per game and near four YPC. In addition, they have allowed 26 receptions for 194 yards and seven total touchdowns to opposing backs, while giving up over 20 fantasy points per game. Ingram received 30 touches last week, totaling 150 yards and two touchdowns, with five receptions. When a player sees an increase in price this significant it usually causes some concern, but that is not the case this week because when you consider volume, talent, and matchup, Ingram is still fairly priced.

PivotChristian McCaffrey $6,100 at Chicago BearsMcCaffrey has been everything that the Panthers hoped for and some. He is averaging 8.3 targets per game, account for 24 percent of the Panthers targets share, 33.3 percent of their red zone targets and 17.4 percent of the red zone rushes. He is a huge part of this offense and that is unlikely to change. While the Bears are not a pushover run defense, they are allowing a 79 percent catch rate to running backs and have given up five touchdowns. McCaffrey has displayed his 20+ fantasy point upside multiple times this season and has established a relatively safe floor. At this price point, he should have no trouble paying off his salary.

Wide Receivers

ChalkDez Bryant $7,600 vs. San Francisco 49ersBryant leads the Cowboys with 48 targets, which is 27 percent of the team’s target share and also accounts for 37.5 percent of their red zone targets. This is a favorable matchup against a 49ers defense that is yielding 12.5 receptions and 168.8 receiving yards per game to opposing wide outs, with a 63 percent catch rate. He also gets a good matchup versus Dontae Johnson, who Bryant has a 34 percent advantage rating against, per Pro Football Focus. Bryant has found the pay dirt in three of his first five games and is in a good situation to make it a fourth time. The Cowboys have one of the higher implied team totals of the week, so they should score some points in this one, favoring Bryant’s potential.

PivotJarvis Landry $6,800 vs. New York JetsI am having trouble gauging Landry’s ownership, but I do expect him to be lower owned than Dez Bryant this week. Landry is averaging 11.4 targets per game, which is good for 34 percent of the Dolphins target share and also accounts for 35.7 percent of their red zone targets. He has now scored in back-to-back games and has scored double-digit fantasy points in every single game this season. In his last four meetings against the Jets, Landry has two touchdown receptions and has topped 100 receiving yards twice. The volume he receives is significant and the matchup at hand is pretty good, so there is no reason why he should be productive.

Tight Ends

Chalk Evan Engram $4,400 vs. Seattle SeahawksThis will not be the first or last time you see me mention recency bias this season and that is exactly the case here. Engram erupted for 19.2 fantasy points in Week 6, catching 5-of-7 targets for 82 yards and a touchdown. He is averaging 6.8 targets per game and has at least seven targets in four of his last five games. In the Giants last game, he accounted for 37 percent of their target share and played in 70 percent of the snaps. With all the injuries to the receivers on this offense, Engram should continue to see a high volume. This is far from a great matchup against the Seahawks, however, Engram is a very talented tight end and he is set to be the focal point of this offense moving forward, therefore he becomes a tight end people will steer towards, especially at this price.

PivotKyle Rudolph $3,800 vs. Baltimore RavensRudolph accounts for 16 percent of the Vikings target share and has been peppered with nine targets in each of the last two games. With Stefon Diggs ruled out for this week, Rudolph should once again receive a fair amount of targets. He faces off against a Ravens defense that is really good against the pass. In fact, they rank second against wide receivers, but have been generous to tight ends, giving up 23 catches for 323 yards and six touchdowns, with a 66 percent catch rate to the position. The Diggs news may draw some more ownership, but he will likely still go a tad overlooked.
Good luck to all this week. If you have any questions, feel free to reach out to me on the Twitter machine: @Armando_Marsal