I'm probably not going to gain any friends
with this perspective. But there are inarguable factors that suggest
Bitcoin's own buyers are irrationally driving up prices. And their
exuberance is setting the market up for a crash.

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Money is typically used in exchange. And while Bitcoin can
be used in exchange, it's largely not. Gary Schneider, Professor of
Accounting at California State University, says only about 10% of
Bitcoin is held by people who use it as currency. The large majority are
speculators hoping to sell at higher prices.

The fact that the market is dominated by
speculators is not necessarily the problem for Bitcoin. And here's where
I'm sure to piss some people off... The problem for Bitcoin is its
buyers.

Who are they?

Well, according to a recent survey, approximately 60% of Bitcoin owners are under 35 years old.

In short, most Bitcoin buyers are
millennials. And that's all we need to know about them to make an
inarguable point (told you I wouldn't be making any friends here).

The fact is this: A 35-year-old speculator
intrinsically has much less experience in risk management than a
60-year-old. And remember, most Bitcoin owners are mostly speculators,
as opposed to users of the product.

AND remember they're speculating on a currency, which is among the most volatile of financial instruments.

AND remember they're speculating on what essentially amounts to a new, experimental currency.

All this considered, Bitcoin looks to me as one of the (if not the) most speculative financial instruments available...

Expect for Bitcoin's derivatives, of course.

Yes, believe it or not, Bitcoin has a
futures market. And there are products that offer even more risk. On its
Perpetual Bitcoin/USD Swap Contracts, BitMEX offers up to 100x
leverage!

But to really understand why I think
Bitcoin is eventually headed for a crash, let's consider the most famous
market bubble in history...

Dutch Tulip Mania

In the 17th century, formal
futures markets developed in the Dutch Republic, providing the
infrastructure for a massive bubble in the price of tulip bulbs.

The tulip first became fashionable in
France, where early modern ladies of the aristocracy began sporting the
flower on their dresses. From there, the tulip became the flower to show
off social status and wealth. The demand for bulbs subsequently
skyrocketed, and prices immediately followed.

At the peak of Tulip Mania in 1637, a
single tulip bulb could cost as much as 10,000 gilders, the price of a
nice middle-class townhouse in Amsterdam. According to one author, 12
acres of land was once offered for one rare bulb. For a flower bulb!

The Semper Augustus was the most coveted of all Dutch tulips.

Of course, the bubble eventually burst. The
price of tulip bulbs collapsed, and fortunes in perceived value
disappeared over night.

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Here's what I really want you to take away from this story...

If we consider whom the people were who
took part in Dutch Tulip Mania and compare them to the majority of
Bitcoin owners, it seems both groups share the same shortcomings.

First, we know both groups are speculators
betting on the hot new product. But I think we can also make good
assumptions to compare the investment sophistication of the Dutch tulip
investors and today's Bitcoin buyers.

Because formal futures markets were only
recently developed, the Dutch tulip buyers were inherently
unsophisticated investors. All of them. They simply didn't have the
experience.

The majority of today's Bitcoin buyers are
generally younger, so they share the same inexperience. For many Bitcoin
buyers, I imagine it represents their first real investment. They
simply don't have experience in risk management. And I think that's
pretty clear considering some are buying products with 100x leverage!

Bitcoin could be the tulip of the 21st
century with the development of a textbook bubble. And I think could be
setting itself up for an eventual crash.

Now, even though I've been talking about a
crash in Bitcoin prices, there's an epilogue to the Dutch tulip story
that's often overlooked... and that actually provides a bullish outlook for the technology.

Truth is, the Dutch tulip bubble never
really ended... it evolved. The price of tulip bulbs collapsed in the
17th century. But the flower industry at large eventually recovered and
has never been bigger. Global floral production value is currently
estimated at $55 billion.

People still pay thousands for rare
flowers. In fact, an anonymous buyer paid over $200,000 for a rare
orchid in 2005. And that's not even considered the most expensive flower
in the world. Rose breeder David Austin spent 15 years and $5 million
to develop Juliet rose.

My point is, the tulip as an individual
product lost favor. But the collapse of the tulip market didn't
completely kill the flower market. In the same way, I don't expect a
collapse of Bitcoin prices to completely kill the blockchain-based
currency market.

Bitcoin is simply one product of many blockchain-based currencies. A crash in Bitcoin would throw a wrench in the blockchain-based revolution. But there is little doubt that blockchain technologies are the future.

As we speak, every major central bank and
large financial institution is researching how to implement blockchain
into its own systems. It has already been proven to eliminate
verification redundancies and improve security, and new applications are
being tested every day.

So while I think Bitcoin itself could
eventually be headed for a crash, the blockchain technologies that are
supporting all these digital currencies seem set for unprecedented
growth.

GEORGE TOWN: Two more popular financial schemes in Penang have been red-flagged by Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM).

A check on the financial consumer alert list yesterday showed MBI International Sdn Bhd and Mface International Sdn Bhd to be the latest additions.

Both are subsidiaries of MBI Group International, a company with investors worldwide, many of them from China.

To date, 302 companies have been listed under the BNM financial consumer alert list, for suspicion of not adhering to relevant laws and regulations administered by BNM in their operations.

Under the Financial Services Act 2013, individuals or businesses involved in illegal financial activities can be fined up to RM50mil and jailed for 10 years.

When contacted by a Chinese daily, MBI International chairman Tedy Teow’s special assistant Alfa said he did not think that the company would face any problem.

“And it is unnecessary for us to hold a press conference to explain the situation to our investors.

“We are always doing our work and we believe that our investors can see how we are performing so far,” he told Sin Chew Daily.

An investor, H.L. Teoh, said he put in RM22,500 early this year and was given 10,000 game redemption credits.

“Actually, I can start selling it every six months, but I was advised to wait for it to grow bigger in three years.

“When you have lots of credit, it is like having a lot of virtual shares.

“Now, I will have to wait for further instructions from the company before my next course of action,” he said.

Members are allowed to spend their loyalty points, which are converted from virtual money or coins, in exchange for goods and services at affiliated companies, including a supermarket, restaurants, a gym and even a durian stall.

Meanwhile, a press conference called by a branch representative of another controversial financial scheme operator, JJPTR, was cancelled at the last minute.

Press members in Penang had received an invitation from a man known only as Lim at 8.30am yesterday.

However, no reason was given for the cancellation.

JJPTR has been grabbing headlines in the past few weeks since its founder Johnson Lee claimed that the company had lost US$400mil (RM1.738bil) due to a purported “hacking job”.

Lee and two of his top aides have been detained by the police to facilitate investigations following several police reports lodged against JJPTR.

In another case, 19 Chinese nationals lodged police reports in Kuala Lumpur against another multi-level marketing company, claiming that they had lost hundreds of thousands of ringgit.

They claimed to have lost between 100,000 yuan (RM62,536) and 700,000 yuan (RM437,754) since investing in the scheme by Monspace last year.

Founded in 2014, Monspace is listed as a multi-level marketing company, according to the Com­panies Commission of Malaysia.

In an immediate response, Monspace said it would take legal action against any group or individual making defamatory statements against it.

The company said in a statement to the media that it was functioning professionally and had engaged a law firm to keep track of statements made about it.

Wednesday, 24 May 2017

Prized job: While long-term security like the pension scheme free healthcare and easy loans have been among the perks of joining the public service, many job seekers now want to become civil servants because it pays well. — Bernama

The attractive emoluments and benefits in the public sector are costing the country, say experts.

THE civil service had never been *Sofea Mohd’s dream job but in the current competi­tive job market, the final year Economics student at a local public university is seriously weighing the option. Especially since she was offered a temporary position at a ministry where she had just completed an internship.

“My seniors advised me to take the offer – one said she had to wait years before she got a job, another said he had to work in a fastfood restaurant and sell pens and children’s books on the street, so I thought I should listen to them and just take it.

“They say my chances of being hired permanently will be higher then,” says the 22-year-old.

The main reason she decided to accept the offer, however, is the pay, she tells, “It’s not as low as people say. I will get a daily wage but I can earn at least RM2,000 a month. The pay for permanent staff is of course better.”

Her friend *Azman Jailani dreams of starting his own business but is also planning to join the public sector after graduation.

“That’s what my parents want me to do. They say there is more security in the civil service. I can start my business later if I want,” says the final year business studies student.

With the academic year coming to a close at most tertiary institution in the country, many graduating students are preparing for the next chapter in their life. And like these two, many are looking at the civil service for a job guarantee.

It was reported recently that the Public Service Commission received 1.56 million applications last year to fill 25,046 job vacancies in the public sector. In 2015, the PSC received 1.63 million applications for 24,606 vacancies.

While the attraction of a government job is well-noted – long-term security; a pension scheme; cheap, if not free, healthcare; easy loans – many job seekers are now drawn to the public sector because of its pay.

“It has to be noted that public sector wages have risen, in some cases outstripping the wages in the private sector. And that is only the basic pay. When you add the different allowances and bonuses, the public sector’s salaries – perhaps except for those at senior management level – could be more attractive than that of the private sector.

“Then there are also many benefits for civil servants such as house loans and healthcare benefits for them and family that continue even after they retire.

“In the private sector, the health insurance coverage ends when you leave a company’s employment or retire,” he says.

But the attractive emolument and benefits in the public sector have come at a price for the country, say economists, one that Malaysia will not be able to afford in the future. In fact, some believe it is already hurting Malaysia’s economy – it has been reported that it will now cost the nation more than 40% of government revenue to maintain the public sector.

Experts have pointed to its sheer size as a reason for the burgeoning bill of the civil service.

In February, Second Finance Minister Datuk Seri Johari Abdul Ghani told a local Chinese daily in an interview that it is a growing challenge for the Government to run the public sector due to the rising costs.

“One of the issues that we have to address is the ever-increasing government operating costs and expenses.

“For example, we have about 1.6 million civil servants, which is one of the world’s largest proportion of civil service,” Johari was quoted as saying.

With a population of 31 million, this means Malaysia has a ratio of one civil servant to 19 people, said the news report, which cited corresponding ratios for other countries in comparison: Singapore (1 to 71 people), Indonesia (1:110), China (1:108) and Britain (1:118).

The reported size of the civil service caused a stir, with the Public Service Department director-general Datuk Seri Zainal Rahim Seman refuting criticisms that the civil service is oversized by reiterating Chief Secretary to the Government Tan Sri Dr Ali Hamsa’s statement that the size of the civil service is a matter of definition under the Federal Constitution, which includes the police, the armed forces, and healthcare and education personnel.

As Zainal Rahim told the press, the actual size of the civil service would only be 682,790 should Malaysia adopt the same calculation used by other countries. This would make the ratio of civil servant to population as 1 to 44, instead of 1:19, he said.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, meanwhile, put Malaysia’s employment in the public sector as only 10.8% of the total labour force in 2013.

But as Johari highlighted, the fact is, emoluments make up the biggest portion of the Government’s operating expenditure, and that cost has been and will keep expanding.

“In 2003, the pay of public servants totalled RM22bil but it increased to RM74bil by 2016. In 2003, the pension of civil servants was RM5.9bil and in 2016 the amount soared to RM19bil.”

This year, some RM77.4bil have been allocated in the 2017 Budget for public servants’ pay and some RM21bil for the pension and gratuity payments of retirees, which is about 45% of the allocated operating expenditure of the country.

The challenge to cover the spiking cost is intensified by the declining Government reve­nue, the vernacular newspaper reported Johari as saying.

“In particular, revenues from the palm oil and natural gas industries, which generated profits of about RM65bil in 2014, fell sharply to RM30bil in 2016,” he was quoted.

Concurring, economist Dr Yeah Kim Leng says the rising operating expenditure is also a concern due to its impact on the country’s development.

“Over the last decade or so, we are seeing the operating expenditure in the government budget expand to the extent that we are not able to expand the development expenditure,” says Dr Yeah, who is an economics professor at Sunway Business School.

Some RM214.8bil was allocated for operating expenditure in the 2017 Budget while only RM46bil was allocated for development.

“By right, the development expenditure should be half of the budget if we want a dynamic economy as we see in many countries, especially in the developed countries,” he adds.

“But in Malaysia, the development expenditure has shrunk to as low as 20% of the budget. This will have a multiplier effect on our economy.”

He argues we should be spending more on our development, both in increasing the quantum of development expenditure and at the same time focusing the development expenditure on the right sectors – not just hard infrastructure but also soft infrastructure like social and human capital development.

“This is important in improving the quality of our workforce and their skills, in terms of boosting the talent development that can push the frontiers of growth in the country, especially in science and technology and other emerging knowledge and industries.

“The Government needs to attract investments in these new sectors, so that is why development expenditure is one of the key contributions to spark growth in those sectors and accelerate the growth of the economy towards becoming high end, high value.”

He points out, various studies have shown that the country’s civil service is big, with a low productivity rate.

“Regardless of how we calculate the total, we definitely have more people in the public sector than necessary, and studies have shown that labour productivity is quite low for the public sector.”

Rightsizing the civil service is the way to go, he asserts, but it should be treated as part of the continuous effort of improving the efficiency of its delivery service.

“The key is to be able to provide the services required by the people optimally, which is at the smallest number and lowest cost possible without sacrificing the quality of service,” he says, stressing that the underlying note is that “we should be getting bigger banks for our bucks, that is the taxpayers’ money.”

Crucially, Dr Yeah adds, while rightsizing the civil service is important to sustain growth, it is important that we rightsize without disrupting economic growth in terms of the employment situation in the country.

“We have to ensure meaningful employment for all while sustaining a low unemployment rate so that we can maintain the domestic economic growth momentum.”

Any prudent government would seize the opportunity to rightsize and enhance the public sector efficiency, Dr Yeah says.

“It is important to rightsize gradually and incrementally at a pace that does not disrupt the economy.

“Because the risk is that if we are hit by a downturn and the government is forced to undertake the pending cuts then that would be more painful and damaging to the economy. There would be a loss of productive capital when we face that kind of situation,” he says.

Tan Sri Mohd Sheriff Mohd Kassim, immediate past president of the Malaysian Economic Association (MEA) also believes it is time for Malaysia to rightsize the civil service due to the huge sum of civil servants’ salaries and pensions in the government expenditure.

As he had told the “Economic Governance: Public Sector Governance” forum in February, it could be a problem for Malaysia if it runs into a financial crisis and rightsizing is “better sooner than later” if Malaysia wanted to avoid falling into a Greece-like crisis, where the European country had to cut salaries and state pensions for its civil service.

“It is worthwhile to do it now while we can still afford it.

“I think we should do it gradually. It is kinder to do it now with incentives than to suddenly cut their salaries and pensions at a time when they can least afford it,” he was reported as saying.

Mohd Sheriff, who is also the former Finance Ministry secretary-general and Economic Planning Unit director-general, points out that there are ways of rightsizing in a humane and caring manner including providing free courses on skills development that will make people employable in the right sector like ICT, English, basic accounting, corporate law and others.

He says with the right skills, many would even leave the service on their own accord to improve their lives.

Dr Yeah agrees.

“While their pay is comparable to the private sector, many of the second layer and support jobs in the civil service have low long-term prospect,” he says.

“If their skills are improved, they and their families could get better prospects for the future. And if they are forced to look at other opportunities in the private sector or in entrepreneurship, in the end they could be better off,” he says, pointing to some of the initiatives already taken to rightsize the civil service and improve its productivity and efficiency, especially under Pemandu.

Dr Lee Hwok Aun, senior fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore, says the Government should explore different ways to raise more revenue, such as by introducing a capital gains tax.

As a former lecturer at a Malaysian public university, Dr Lee says he can appreciate the enormous difficulty of rightsizing the civil service.

“The projected increasing burden of civil service salaries and proven continuous increase of operational expenditures in overall federal government spending, at the expense of investment, are major causes for concern. And the size of the civil service matters, but the long-term issues are even more complex,” he says.

For the civil service to be effective, nimble and efficient, it will need to attract and retain talent in certain sectors – which means paying higher salaries, especially for key positions such as teachers, he says.

As he sees it, the main problem is over-bureaucratisation.

“There are various unnecessary administrative posts, which add cost and tend to perpetuate procedures and heavy paperwork. I can attest to this from my experience working in a public university. An overhaul of administrative strategy and operations is probably necessary in many departments, before making any staff reductions. If not, when staff retire or relocate, the same amount of tedious work becomes distributed among fewer people, causing service and morale to decline,” he says, adding there will also be resistance from civil servants who stand to lose their pension if they leave.

“We should be understanding and merciful about this situation. Forms of compensation, or the option to convert from public sector pension to an EPF lump sum, could be explored.”

MEF’s Shamsuddin concurs, pointing out that there are also a lot of duplications of service and work at the federal level and state level and so on.

“A good example is tourism where there is a tourism agency at the federal level while the state has its own tourism Exco and office.

Duplications impact the private sector as it is a problem to deal with different government agencies to get something done. When there are too many agencies, that will bound to cause delays,” says Shamsuddin.

Dr Yeah says it is imperative for the Government to enhance the efficiency of the delivery service and effectiveness of the public sector across the board, such as putting them to work in priority areas and where they will have the highest impact.

“Crucially, when we focus on improving productivity through redeployment, retraining and re-skilling, quite naturally, we will be rightsizing.”

It can even be a win-win situation for the public servants as a smaller number of employees that commensurate with a higher productivity will mean an increase in profit, so the civil servants can receive higher wages, he notes.

Still, Dr Yeah feels the public sector’s emolument bill should be capped.

“We need to ensure that the public sector wages do not exceed the workers’ productivity or rate of inflation, as that itself will lead to a productivity decline.

“We should cascade it so that the wages in private sector could rise in tandem with thepublic sector,” he says, adding that at the same time the size of the civil service needs to be reduced. “If we don’t rightsize and instead create more civil service jobs, it will be a downward spiral.”

The Government also needs to enhance Malaysia’s investment climate and attract more foreign investments, he adds, “The strategy of the country should be to push for private sector growth, especially in new and emerging areas which would boost demand for highly skilled labour.”

Ultimately, says Dr Yeah, the public service sector should not be the job reserve or employer of the last resort in the country.

To achieve this, we need to stop the disproportionate interest in the public sector which is not healthy for the economy, he says.

“We should be steering the workforce towards the private sector or they should become entrepreneurs so that they can raise their income opportunities and create jobs.”
The tightening of the job market can lead to higher investment, higher productivity and higher wages, Dr Yeah notes, “This is the virtuous cycle we need to kickstart to sustain an economic growth for the country at a higher level.”

*not real name

Next: Some of the initiatives already taken by the Government to rightsize the civil service and improve its productivity and efficiency.

Monday, 22 May 2017

KUALA LUMPUR: It is time for police officers to put a stop to irresponsible and corrupt behaviour within their ranks, says Deputy Prime Minister Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi.

He said there were reports that some senior officers had pressured lower-ranked officers, including OCPDs, to finance “celebrations” for them during gatherings.

In the end, the lower-ranking personnel were forced to be involved in corrupt acts.

Dr Ahmad Zahid, who is Home Minister, said such “bullying” should stop as there were complaints made on senior officers.

Dr Ahmad Zahid said there was a case of an OCPD who had to find outside sources of income to allow him to organise celebrations for the senior officers.

Such an excuse is unacceptable, he added.

“This is a stupid excuse, if this matter had actually happened, as it goes against the principle of integrity for all enforcement officers who are supposed to protect the public.

“The days of officers receiving illegal profits and income from non-halal sources are gone. We will never accept such behaviour anymore,” he said at a treasure hunt with the media organised by the Home Ministry yesterday.

He ordered Bukit Aman’s Integrity and Standard Compliance Department and the Special Branch to investigate such claims within the force.

“I don’t deny that there are a few bad apples who bring a bad name to the enforcement agencies. But this behaviour must stop immediately,” he said.

On a separate matter, Dr Ahmad Zahid said the petition signed by Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad calling for the release of jailed PKR leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim is meant “to wash away his own sins”.

He said the people knew that it was Dr Mahathir who put Anwar in jail when the former prime minister was still in power.

He was also informed that there was another petition submitted by Datuk Seri Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail to the Pardons Board for a royal pardon for her husband.

“I believe that is the better way. And I do not wish to interfere with the powers provided by the Yang di-Pertuan Agong to the Pardons Board for them to make such a decision,” he said.

By Rahimy Rahim The Star

Zahid: We will reshuffle police force, trust me and top cops to rectify problems within police force

DENGKIL: Deputy Prime Minister Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi (pic) is
asking the public to trust him and the top brass of the police as the
force undergoes extensive reshuffling to “correct things from within”.

Dr Ahmad Zahid, who is Home Minister, was responding to a string of
arrests of police personnel by the Malaysian Anti-Corruption
Com­mis­sion (MACC) recently.

“We appreciate the monitoring by other agencies, but excessive publicity
on their operation has led to negative perception on the police.

“What I can say is that we are committed to making changes, and that a
major reshuffle is taking place as we speak,” he told repor­ters after
attending zohor prayers and lunch at the Bukit Dugang orang asli village
here yesterday.

The police came under the spotlight after MACC picked up seven police
personnel in Melaka, including two district police chiefs, for alleged
graft.

They are believed to be part of a racket providing protection to illegal gambling dens and massage parlours.

Police have also nabbed their own men – 21 high-ranking narcotics
officers – under Ops Kabaddi, a nationwide operation to weed out corrupt
officers.

The narcotics officers, including a deputy superintendent and an
inspector, were being investigated for alleged involvement with drug
syndicates.

However, Dr Ahmad Zahid said police would not announce the de­­tails of
the reshuffling in order to avoid any further misunderstanding.

“I ask the public to trust us to do what is best for the people and the country,” he said.

Deputy Inspector-General of Police Tan Sri Noor Rashid Ibrahim said the
police would relook their transfer policy, which stipulates that
transfers should take place every three years, adding that other factors
do come into play before such orders are issued.

“We have to consider costs and personal issues involving our men,” he said.

Deputy Prime Minister Ahmad Zahid Hamidi has directed an investigation
over allegations the police, especially at district level, are forced to
seek side incomes to fete their higher-ups. The home minister said he
had directed the Royal Malaysian ...

BANTING – Corporate leaders should support the government in instilling
confidence in the people and investors that the economic fundamentals
of the country are strong, said Deputy Prime Minister Datuk Seri Dr
Ahmad Zahid Hamidi. He said currently ...

PENANG Yang di-Pertua Negri Tun Abdul Rahman Abbas has urged public servants to defend the good name of the civil service by rejecting corruption and misuse of power.
“I fully support efforts in eradicating corruption among public servants by taking strict action against those found guilty, including termination of service,” he said in his speech when opening the fifth term of the 13th state assembly at the state legislative assembly building in George Town yesterday.

Abdul Rahman evoked the example of Prophet Sulaiman (Solomon), who spurned bribes, as an inspiration for civil servants in carrying out their duties.

On the economy, Abdul Rahman said Penang received RM4.3bil in investments, with 106 projects approved last year.

“From that amount, RM3.1bil was from foreign investment while RM1.2bil was from domestic investment,” he added.

In agriculture, he said livestock production value increased from RM827.96mil in 2015 to RM842.55mil last year, with the amount expected to continue growing and exceed RM850mil by 2018.

Abdul Rahman praised the state for its efforts to promote medical tourism by establishing the Penang Center of Medical Tourism (PMED) involving 10 private hospitals in the state.

He said the number of tourists seeking medical services in Penang increased by 14.77% from 302,000 in 2015 to 347,000 last year.

“Income also increased by 17.92% in the same period, from RM391mil in 2015 to RM458mil last year,” he added.

Pulau Betong assemblyman Datuk Farid Saad was earlier quoted as saying that it was unfair to reject the Opposition’s two motions, one asking Chief Minister Lim Guan Eng to step down pending his corruption trial while the other called for civil servants to take leave if they are charged with corruption.

“We will bring it up during our debate in the assembly and let the people decide if the state government practised what it preached,” he had said.

It was also reported that a motion would be tabled by Chief Minister Lim Guan Eng or a state exco member to censure Tasek Gelugor MP Datuk Shabudin Yahaya over his controversial remarks in Parliament on child marriages.