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Re: Homer Bailey making first start since the no-hitter

Reds44, Bailey did not throw a no hitter. Two starts ago, he went 6 innings of no hit and 9 strikeout ball. First reliever came in and went 2 innings of no hit ball. Second reliever came in and got the first guy out in the 9th before the opposing teams leadoff hitter laid down a bunt single to get the only hit of the game.

Re: Homer Bailey making first start since the no-hitter

Bailey and Hughes Krates are the same, Hughes ability to control his secondary pitches and get them to go where he wants them to go is the main difference in looking at hits per 9. Bailey had his 3 pitches working quite well in the 6 no hit innings, but they took off on him again last night.

Re: Homer Bailey making first start since the no-hitter

Originally Posted by dougdirt

Reds44, Bailey did not throw a no hitter. Two starts ago, he went 6 innings of no hit and 9 strikeout ball. First reliever came in and went 2 innings of no hit ball. Second reliever came in and got the first guy out in the 9th before the opposing teams leadoff hitter laid down a bunt single to get the only hit of the game.

Re: Homer Bailey making first start since the no-hitter

I'll say it again, like I did last week. Whenever I start getting a fuzzy feeling about Homer Bailey, I remind myself that even Dave Williams put up better numbers at High-A than Bailey has. Williams had a sub-3.00 ERA while pitching 100+ innings in the FSL. And I'll bet he was "working" on pitches too.

When Homer starts putting up Josh Beckett like numbers at High-A (ERA under 2.00 over 90+ innings), THEN I might start to get excited.

Opinions are like belly buttons. Everybody has one, and they don't want someone else's shoved into their face.

Re: Homer Bailey making first start since the no-hitter

Bailey may have also gotten into baseball later than most hurlers do, which describes his "struggles" mastering his secondary pitches, which is the only thing keeping him away from the majors. He already has a top notch delivery(which IMO made him a top 10 pick, if not top 5 to some) and power 4 seamer.

Mastering those secondary pitches though can be quite the challenge. Does Bailey have the work ethic to do it? If he does, it will be like Adam Dunn in 2001, the rest will be history. If not, he will go down as one of the most disappointing talents of the last 10 years.

Re: Homer Bailey making first start since the no-hitter

Originally Posted by traderumor

As for Homer's WHIP, I suspect it will end up in the 1.30-1.40 range before all is said and done for this year.

Your logic (and I agree) is that Bailey is currently still too inconsistent to be labelled and elite prospect. His big potential for the future is what keeps posters' interest in him. Right now his WHIP is 1.04, yet you provide us with his potential whip. Why? It goes against your logic that he be judged on his current performance. As a fan, your interest in his future shows thru your critique of his present.

Re: Homer Bailey making first start since the no-hitter

Originally Posted by Betterread

Your logic (and I agree) is that Bailey is currently still too inconsistent to be labelled and elite prospect. His big potential for the future is what keeps posters' interest in him. Right now his WHIP is 1.04, yet you provide us with his potential whip. Why? It goes against your logic that he be judged on his current performance. As a fan, your interest in his future shows thru your critique of his present.

No, his current performance is based on too little data to be relied upon (6 starts). If he's sitting on that number in August, then we'd all be happy and I'd be pleasantly surprised.

Re: Homer Bailey making first start since the no-hitter

Originally Posted by traderumor

Yup, and absent are all those folks who were just blasting me as negative and pessimistic because I pointed that out as a reason to not get overly excited about the 6 innings of no-hit ball. I haven't seen those folks posting here yet.

Let's not forget those that thought the major league roster would be a good place for him.

Re: Homer Bailey making first start since the no-hitter

Originally Posted by registerthis

Let's not forget those that thought the major league roster would be a good place for him.

I forgot about them because they were far and few between. The no hitter shouldn't be dismissed, but what could be. No reason to be negative on Homer's ability yet, it is still there(alas, unlike somebody like Richie Gardner who clearly had something wrong with him last year), it is between the ears which needs to develope.

Re: Homer Bailey making first start since the no-hitter

Originally Posted by Aronchis

I forgot about them because they were far and few between. The no hitter shouldn't be dismissed, but what could be. No reason to be negative on Homer's ability yet, it is still there(alas, unlike somebody like Richie Gardner who clearly had something wrong with him last year), it is between the ears which needs to develope.

That's funny, because those who I see exercising caution on Homer as a serious prospect have really never questioned his ability, but have honed in on his performance, his inconsistency, and the significant odds against a HS pitcher ever making a meaningful contribution, esp. as a staff ace, at the major league level. There are a lot of guys who were identified as having "ability" (translated as "potential") selling insurance and coaching their son's little league team.

Re: Homer Bailey making first start since the no-hitter

Originally Posted by traderumor

That's funny, because those who I see exercising caution on Homer as a serious prospect have really never questioned his ability, but have honed in on his performance, his inconsistency, and the significant odds against a HS pitcher ever making a meaningful contribution, esp. as a staff ace, at the major league level. There are a lot of guys who were identified as having "ability" (translated as "potential") selling insurance and coaching their son's little league team.

Whats so funny about it? That Homer has a great delivery? Not to me. That is the reason why to be happy about Bailey. The chances of a major injury are low. That increases the odds that Bailey will have the chance to put it together and pitch in the Majors. In otherwords, all that inconsistancy you complain about, will pass at some point. The key is between the ears. It also means Bailey isn't going to be a 20 year old prodigy either. Take the good with the bad. If the right deal comes along, we can bid goodbye to him, but to slam that his ability isn't going to be a determining factor in his development is wrong, it most surely is.

Those guys selling car insurance, also went through major arm surguries.

Re: Homer Bailey making first start since the no-hitter

Originally Posted by Aronchis

Whats so funny about it? That Homer has a great delivery? Not to me. That is the reason why to be happy about Bailey. The chances of a major injury are low. That increases the odds that Bailey will have the chance to put it together and pitch in the Majors. In otherwords, all that inconsistancy you complain about, will pass at some point. The key is between the ears. It also means Bailey isn't going to be a 20 year old prodigy either. Take the good with the bad. If the right deal comes along, we can bid goodbye to him, but to slam that his ability isn't going to be a determining factor in his development is wrong, it most surely is.

Those guys selling car insurance, also went through major arm surguries.

I think it's a major assumption that Bailey's delivery will spare him arm surgery or that his inconsistency will just disappear. I tend to believe both of those are wishful BS. He's inconsistent partially because he's got an inconsistent release point and arm slot. If he's got an inconsistent release point and arm slot then he does not a Skippy smooth delivery and he could tweak something in his shoulder or elbow just like anyone else.

Maybe Homer avoids the injury bug and maybe he doesn't. Maybe he straightens out his wrinkles or maybe he doesn't. Maybe he moves forward or maybe he regresses. No one knows.

Baseball isn't a magic trick ... it doesn't get spoiled if you figure out how it works. - gonelong

Re: Homer Bailey making first start since the no-hitter

Originally Posted by M2

I think it's a major assumption that Bailey's delivery will spare him arm surgery or that his inconsistency will just disappear. I tend to believe both of those are wishful BS. He's inconsistent partially because he's got an inconsistent release point and arm slot. If he's got an inconsistent release point and arm slot then he does not a Skippy smooth delivery and he could tweak something in his shoulder or elbow just like anyone else.

Maybe Homer avoids the injury bug and maybe he doesn't. Maybe he straightens out his wrinkles or maybe he doesn't. Maybe he moves forward or maybe he regresses. No one knows.

Yep, no one knows. He is a scouts dream right now, a statman's nightmare. Hopefully things come together and we sing in harmony.

Re: Homer Bailey making first start since the no-hitter

Originally Posted by Aronchis

Whats so funny about it? That Homer has a great delivery? Not to me. That is the reason why to be happy about Bailey. The chances of a major injury are low. That increases the odds that Bailey will have the chance to put it together and pitch in the Majors. In otherwords, all that inconsistancy you complain about, will pass at some point. The key is between the ears. It also means Bailey isn't going to be a 20 year old prodigy either. Take the good with the bad. If the right deal comes along, we can bid goodbye to him, but to slam that his ability isn't going to be a determining factor in his development is wrong, it most surely is.

Those guys selling car insurance, also went through major arm surguries.

First of all, even pitchers with "great deliveries" encounter arm difficulties. Good mechanics is an oxymoron when it comes to the violence done to an arm to toss it 95 MPH, snap off curves and sliders, etc. I'm sure there are many things that help, but it seems that only a very select few escape arm troubles at some point in their career.

Second of all, if people who have studied pitching motions and the correlations to injury are doing groundbreaking stuff (such as Will Carroll), I do find it laughable for someone to claim that they have identified Homer as having a great delivery that gives them great confidence for future success. Yet, here we are with this great delivery, 95 FB, plus curve, and A ballers are handling him more often than he is dominating them. I'll take a guy who actually performs at a high level over the guy who causes people to believe he will perform at a higher level than he currently is every day of the week.

What it comes down to is no matter how one tries to explain away Homer's subpar numbers relative to the hype and hopes, he still must perform at a higher level than he has to date.

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