The consensus: Vitter is the man to beat — but not for his Senate seat. Rather, he’s the frontrunner to succeed Gov. Bobby Jindal in Louisiana’s 2015 governor’s race. That would open up the seat he’s held since 2005. But it’s not as simple as that. If Vitter’s sworn in as governor, he’ll also have the chance to appoint his successor, which means he can help give a Republican an advantage in the 2016 cycle. The names that come up most frequently as potential appointments? Rep. John Fleming — who all but declared his candidacy this month — and Rep. Charles Boustany. Both are conservative doctors, but Republicans see Boustany as more in the mold of statewide candidates who succeed in Louisiana. Either would instantly become the front-runner for a full six-year term in 2016. If Vitter lost his gubernatorial bid. he’d be a virtual shoo-in for reelection to the Senate. The only possible derailment? New revelations pertaining to the prostitution scandal that nearly sunk his career seven years ago.

— Neither Fleming nor Boustany would be as formidable as Vitter’s reelection bid. Fleming, in particular, hails from the state’s sparsely populated northwest corner, leaving him with a tiny voting and donor base. Either contender would create the slightest of openings for a strong Democrat — if any of the party’s few prospects decides to run. New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu is mentioned most frequently as the Democrats’ best hope — both for governor and Senate. His sister, Mary, was just defeated in her bid for a fourth Senate term, so the Landrieu brand may be at its nadir — but Democrats are confident it could recover in time for the Senate race. And Mitch is seen as the most politically talented of the Landrieu clan, a powerhouse in Louisiana politics. But the Landrieus — both Mitch and Mary — seem inclined to stay away from another Senate bid. It’d take a major recruitment effort to get either in the race.

Other potential candidates: Democrats don’t have much of a non-Landrieu bench, but there are a few prospects that could be goaded into a Senate bid, including Alexandria Mayor Jacques Roy. Roy, who is white, represents a predominantly African-American city and has drawn looks from party leaders for his ability to appeal to voters across cultural lines, as well as his moderate-to-conservative politics. Jim Bernhard, a super-wealthy businessman who just sold the Shaw Group for about $2 billion to $3 billion, has also flirted with a statewide run — either for governor or Senate — and is considered viable, if only because of his ability to self-fund.

— On the GOP side, Vitter’s appointee will be the most critical decision. If he doesn’t appoint Fleming or Boustany, he could also look to former Rep. Jeff Landry. He may also find pressure to consolidate the power of Louisiana’s North Shore by elevating Rep. Steve Scalise — though with Scalise’s stock in the House rising, he might opt to stay put. Appointment aside, another possible contender could be Rob Maness, who finished third in November’s jungle primary but quickly endorsed Rep. Bill Cassidy and campaigned on his behalf.

Wildcard: Jindal vs. Vitter. The two dominant figures in the Louisiana Republican Party have waged a barely concealed feud for years. It’s a former Jindal lieutenant, Scott Angelle, who could give Vitter the biggest headache in the 2015 governor’s race. Although there’s debate about whether Angelle is “Jindal’s guy” in the contest, if he taps the Jindal machine to propel his bid — and unites others wary of Vitter — it could throw the governor’s race into turmoil. Ironically, a Vitter loss for governor would strengthen the GOP hand in the Senate race, which is why legitimate Democratic contenders may wait for the outcome before deciding whether it’s worth a shot. And Democrats can afford to wait — with the latest primary in the country (on Election Day itself), candidates have a bit more time before they have to declare

Nevada

Incumbent: Harry Reid (D), 5th term

The consensus: Gov. Brian Sandoval is well-positioned to take out incoming Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid, but allies are increasingly convinced he won’t jump into the race, choosing instead to finish his second term and, perhaps, end up on somebody’s vice presidential short list. If he ran, he’d start as an immediate front-runner against Reid, whose partisan baggage has only increased since his unlikely 2010 victory over the tea party-backed Sharron Angle. Sandoval crushed a no-name Democratic opponent last month to win reelection, and his coattails helped the GOP sweep statewide contests and win both state legislative chambers. His standing has never been higher, so the GOP nod to take on Reid is his for the taking. Republicans see his decision less about whether he can beat Reid and more about whether it’s the right career move.

Top Senate races of 2016

— Reid’s probably going to run again, but it’s not an ironclad guarantee. Though he insists he’ll seek a sixth term — he’s hiring staff and preparing to take on any challenge, even from Sandoval — the wily 75-year-old may just be posturing to stave off lame-duck status as long as possible. If he opts out, he’s seen as increasingly likely to help clear the field for his favored successor, outgoing Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto. She’s leaving office extremely popular, with few blemishes on her record, and taking a senior position in the state’s higher education system. Backing from Reid’s vaunted machine would vault her immediately to the top of the Democratic hierarchy. She might not have a shot at Sandoval, but without him in the contest, she’s as viable as any Democrat — especially with the presidential glare on Nevada, a perennial swing state.

— In fact, Republicans think they’ve got a better shot against Reid than against a lesser-known Democrat — at least until a specific alternative emerges. Although Reid’s a master of survival, he may just have too much baggage to pull it off one final time.

Other potential candidates: Republicans have a decent stable of prospects they could call upon if Sandoval takes a pass. At the top of their list is Rep. Joe Heck, who’s just a notch below Sandoval in the pecking order, though Heck has said he won’t run. A third rung includes Rep. Mark Amodei, who’s well-liked but is a tepid fundraiser and has denied interest in the race, as well as outgoing Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki and incoming Lt. Gov. Mark Hutchison. Krolicki would have a unique case against Cortez Masto — she prosecuted him on felony charges only to see them dropped by a judge, a decision that left her open to charges of partisan prosecution. Other GOP mentions: state Senate Majority Leader Michael Roberson and Sandoval’s economic development chief, Steve Hill, who’s been basking in accolades since helping lure Tesla to build a plant near Reno.

— Beyond Cortez Masto, Democrats could look to outgoing Secretary of State Ross Miller, who just lost the attorney general race to Adam Laxalt. Another possible trump card? Shelley Berkley. The former House lawmaker and unsuccessful 2012 Senate candidate is now the CEO and senior provost of Touro University in California.

Wildcard: The Senate minority. Reid’s future in politics may depend in part on how well he helms the Senate Democratic caucus in the minority. If Republicans run roughshod over Democratic priorities and Democrats start angling for new leadership, Reid might see the writing on the wall and decide to retire. He already got a whiff of Democratic resistance during Senate leadership elections last month, when a handful voted against his bid, despite the fact that he ran unopposed. How well he quells that sentiment could determine whether he seeks another six years.

New Hampshire

Incumbent: Kelly Ayotte (R), 1st term

The consensus: The Democratic nod to challenge Ayotte is Gov. Maggie Hassan’s for the taking. A bid by the popular governor, who just won reelection to a second two-year term, would likely clear the field. Hassan is also likely to wait until July — after a state budget process that will require her to collaborate with her Republican-controlled Legislature — to formally announce her bid. That would help her spring into the contest with a track record of bipartisan achievement, and leave her with a year and a half to pivot to a national campaign. Hassan’s already won twice statewide since the last time Ayotte faced voters. But her son has cerebral palsy and she might decide she’s happier being governor than she would be with weekly commutes to Washington.

Other potential candidates: Democrats have a stable of potentially formidable candidates that could fill in if Hassan were to opt out. Former Gov. John Lynch, still popular in the Granite State, would be the strongest but the unlikeliest entrant. Rep. Ann McLane Kuster, who represents the state’s Second District, might be the strongest fundraiser of the potential candidates. Executive Councilor Chris Pappas is also on the short list, but he’s considered likelier to take on Rep.-elect Frank Guinta in 2016. Other potential candidates are viewed as likelier to vie for governor if Hassan decides to go for Senate: Executive Councilor Colin Van Ostern, state Sen. Donna Soucy and former securities commissioner Mark Connolly. Even Rep. Carol Shea-Porter, who was ousted by Guinta in last month’s election, is considered a potential contender.

Wild card: Same-day voter registration. In 2012, about 100,000 New Hampshirites signed up to vote and cast ballots — predominantly for Democrats — on Election Day. Ayotte could run a flawless campaign and find herself swamped by presidential election-year dynamics, which favor Democrats.

The consensus: Burr is in a surprisingly good position to win reelection in a cycle that is supposed to trend blue. The party is more focused on taking back the governor’s mansion with a strong candidate in North Carolina Attorney General Roy Cooper, who has all but made his formal announcement to challenge Gov. Pat McCrory. Cooper’s decision to run for governor instead of Senate leaves Democrats with a few potential contenders with low name ID. Of those, State Treasurer Janet Cowell’s name comes up most often among the consulting class, but Democrats remain skeptical that she would be able to defeat Burr. Speculation that ousted Sen. Kay Hagan could run again has largely died down, but Republicans are wary of a comeback bid. Both parties will be looking for an announcement from her early in 2015. In the meantime, former Democratic Gov. Jim Hunt, the longest-serving governor in the state, is believed to be taking the lead on recruitment. As far as challenges from within the party, Republicans can’t take an easy primary for granted, but there doesn’t seem to be as much of an appetite among the state’s conservatives to mount a challenge against Burr.

Other potential candidates: In recent days, Greenville Mayor Allen Thomas has gained some buzz. Thomas, 44, is a centrist Democrat and a business owner who could help the party with moderate Democrats in Eastern North Carolina. Former Raleigh Mayor Charles Meeker has also hinted he might run for Senate, and Winston-Salem Mayor Allen Jones has received some attention. From the state legislature, House Minority Leader Larry Hall and Senate Minority Leader Dan Blue are considered potential contenders, but there isn’t too much excitement about either. Some Democrats in the state believe national Dems will try to recruit former Rep. Heath Shuler, a former NFL quarterback and businessman. Former Rep. Brad Miller and retiring Rep. Mike McIntyre’s names have also come up, but the latter will have trouble getting through the primary and avoiding a runoff. Hunt might try to persuade Cal Cunningham, a former state senator who lost to Elaine Marshall in the 2010 Democratic Senate primary, to consider running again.

Wildcard: Transportation Secretary and former Charlotte Mayor Anthony Foxx has said he will not challenge Burr because the incumbent voted in favor of his confirmation. But if he succumbs to pressure from the party, Democrats could have a much stronger chance of picking up the seat.