Jesuit-educated
Bill Shorten
is keeping half an eye as we speak on cable news of the election of a new pope and notes approvingly that Francis is the first Jesuit pontiff in the history of the Catholic Church. Shorten might not appreciate the irony but as the College of Cardinals makes its choice following the surprise resignation of Benedict XVI, Labor’s own conclave remains unsettled, putting it mildly.

This means inevitably attention focuses on various alternatives – or pretenders – whether these individuals like it or not. Shorten might proclaim fealty to the leader but he would know the ground shifts in what is proving to be a protracted shell game.

“Do you aspire to lead the Labor Party," I ask, towards the end of a long discussion in his Parliament House office as flickering images from Rome play in the background, distracting the member for Maribyrnong.

He pauses.

“At this point, no, because of a number of reasons: one, I completely support
Julia Gillard
and two, I think what matters is working on the areas I’ve got. You worry about what you’ve got rather than worrying about what you’re not doing,’’ he says.

Note use of the phrase “at this point".

Damned if he does, damned if he doesn’t

In fairness to Shorten he is damned if he does and damned if he doesn’t in proclaiming his readiness to serve as leader at some undetermined time, if the opportunity arises.

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This is the febrile state in which Labor finds itself as it counts down to its September 14 date with the Australian people, caught between pressures to return to
Kevin Rudd
, stay with Gillard or even try someone else.

Trying someone else seems the least likely option but you never know, which is why Shorten is perceived to be positioning himself, whether this is the case or not.

The Labor caucus, its own conclave, is a jumpy beast these days as witnessed this past week by a surge of rumours that Gillard was about to be “tapped’’. These may have emanated from Liberal Party “sources’’, as Labor claims, but the fact they achieved even a half life tells you something.

Gillard may well survive, she may not, but speculation about the Labor leadership is baked into the political discourse: it will not go away until – to paraphrase Bill Clinton – the last dog dies.

All this is challenging for someone like Shorten who is regarded – for better or worse, right or wrong – as a buffer or safety valve for the Gillard leadership.

If he talks to the media he is accused of self-promotion; if he is out of sight this reinforces impressions of a shadowy back-room operator, or as one of his less charitable colleagues puts it “a power broker without power’’.

The “power broker’’ is also constrained by his own history of having brought down a prime minister. “To kill one prime minister is unfortunate, to kill two would be careless,’’ said a colleague, referencing Oscar Wilde.

Shorten’s power in caucus may be exaggerated. Numbers he actually controls may range between two and five, according to some estimates.

Rudd supporters are philosophical about securing Shorten’s support in any leadership switch. “At 50 we won’t get Bill, at 60 we’ll already have him,’’ said one.

Shorten himself has been telling people Rudd does not have the 52 votes he needs.

This is the current arithmetic, but the calculus shifts up and down depending on polls and other factors beyond the control of the various players such as a bulge in asylum seeker arrivals or some other shock to the system.

Whatever else might be said about the times in which we live, not much can be taken for granted.

This is far from the age of certainty.

How does Labor get itself out of the hole in which it finds itself?

“The way for us to win the next election – and it is a general formula – is to be the party that offers hope and optimism,’’ Shorten says. “We have to give people an affirmative reason to vote for us, not just a reason that we’re not the other side.

“That applies in this election, but I also think it applies for the next 20 years. Who’s got a better vision for the future.’’

Qualities of a Labor Party leader

I ask Shorten what qualities might be expected of a leader of the Labor Party given the mixed reviews he had received from some of his colleagues who question his trustworthiness.

“This is not a job application, by the way,’’ he says. “But leadership is the ability to take people where they don’t always want to go. Leadership is the ability to bring people together. Leadership is having a long view. Leadership is being able to explain where people fit in the change process.’’

If not a job application this is close to being a job description.

Shorten will be 46 on May 12 . This means he could still be around in two decades. He is perhaps the most distinguishable representative of Labor’s Generation X, those who came of age in a post-baby boom digital era.

But not before he got the reading habit.

On his office desk I notice a copy opened of Jared Diamond’s Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Survive. The book provides an apocalyptic view of what causes human civilisation to collapse, including the case of Easter Island whose inhabitants over-exploited its resources, but ends hopefully by noting the success of the “polder society’’ of the Netherlands which had made best use of its limited resources.

Shorten mentions he had met Diamond in Melbourne recently and had begun an email correspondence on the subject of organisational theory – Diamond is writing a book on the subject – born of Shorten’s own observations in his long years as national secretary of the Australian Workers’ Union.

During this time, Shorten says, he visited thousands of companies and worksites to the point where he believes he knows what represents organisational success and failure.

Shorten says he tries to set aside 5 to 10 per cent of his time for reading each week, and laments social media’s intrusions into everyday life in which one’s thoughts can be ­compressed into 140 twitter characters.

Warrior aspirations

Conversation strays to school and ­university where the Jesuits inculcated in Shorten a sense of scepticism (to the point where the member for Maribyrnong is no longer a practising Catholic), and Monash law professors persuaded him jurisprudence represents the best means of resolving conflicts if mediation fails.

At Monash, Shorten served in the ­university regiment because “I wanted to see if I wanted to be a soldier’’. Earlier he had considered going to the maritime college in Launceston, possibly out of deference to his father, Bill Shorten, who had worked as a ship’s engineer and later a member of the Painters and Dockers union on the ­Melbourne waterfront.

If Shorten’s warrior aspirations were unsatisfied in the Monash University regiment, they found expression in his combative years in Young Labor, his brief stint as a labour lawyer, his union role, his leadership of the right faction in Victoria together with ally Communications Minister Stephen Conroy (the ShortCons, as they’re known), his parliamentary career in which he engineered the removal of a first-term prime minister, and now a ministerial role that is not without merit.

He has served as parliamentary secretary for disabilities and children’s services; assistant treasurer; minister for financial services and superannuation; and, following the Rudd coup, found himself elevated to the cabinet as Minister for Employment and Workplace Relations. Ground-breaking disabilities legislation now passing through Parliament would not have happened ­without Shorten’s engagement.

He can also lay claim to “micro-reforms’’ in the financial services sector while he was minister, including efforts to regulate the activities of financial planners. Increases in employers’ superannuation contributions from 9 to 12 per cent over time were partly due to his own efforts.

All these achievements, however, have been overshadowed by his perceived factional manoeuvring and power broking, both pejoratives in this latest period.

Asked whether factionalism is undermining Labor’s ability to present itself as a modern political force, Shorten demurs.

“Factionalism functions both positively and negatively,’’ he says. “Organising around ideas is inevitable, especially in the Labor Party which is made up of people who all have ideas about change. But when you start binding people on ideas you have probably gone too far.’’

Union background an impediment

Shorten is resistant to the idea that his union background is an impediment in an era in which the union movement, with the best will in the world, is soiled thanks to the activities of officials of the Health Services and other unions who have brought the movement into disrepute.

“Anyone who denies where they come from is a fake,’’ Shorten says. “Having been involved in a general union [covering diverse occupations] represents a strong background.

“I’ve negotiated productivity improvements with companies, helped save companies, and I’ve taken a lot of advice from business.

“The union background is part of who I am but it’s not exclusively who I am.’’

He is not averse to more flexible workplace arrangements. This suggests he may find himself at odds with some of his colleagues and the union movement itself on issues like penalty rates.

Shorten’s relations with Melbourne’s business community are extensive, and form an important part of his consultative circle, along with former ACTU boss Bill Kelty and former prime minister Paul Keating.

Shorten would describe both as mentors.

This brings us to a discussion about the party’s ability to heal itself and constraints that might apply in Shorten’s case given his union background and his factional role.

What’s your prescription for reforming the party, I ask.

“First, before the next election tempting as it might be to have a conversation about ourselves we’re not going to,’’ he says. “Let us have a conversation about what we’re going to do for Australia and Australians.

“But I do accept in the medium term we need to revisit how we make decisions, how we select candidates and how we involve people with ideas.’’

Shorten says he is in favour of a primaries process for selecting parliamentary candidates as opposed to having people imposed by factional bosses. But he deflects a question about whether he favours rank-and-file participation in the election of the leader of the parliamentary party, as is the case in Britain.

“We manage to talk about ourselves so much now, for me to add to that is indulgent nonsense,’’ he says. “But we do need change.’’

The party may not have a choice if it is to avoid remaining in the wilderness for a lengthy period.

In your heart of hearts do you think the ­situation is salvageable?

Labor can regain its footing

“It’s hard but not impossible,’’ he says. “We have to get people to think and believe we have a clear third term agenda [around issues of productivity increases, skills and education, social justice and financial and jobs security].’’

Shorten believes that given some clear air (not likely in present circumstances with a difficult budget coming up amid continuing leadership speculation) Labor can regain its footing.

He mentions superannuation returns in the double digits for the first time in six years, lower interest rates, and moderate inflation as reasons for people to feel better about their situations.

Why do you think you’re so much on the nose?

“I think the opposition has been effective,’’ he says. “But in the past two and a bit years it’s been a phantom race. There’s only been one horse in the race. That’s changed. With six months to go there’s the Coalition and us.’’

Meanwhile, back at the Vatican a Jesuit accession is being celebrated.

This might be regarded as a good omen for the Jesuit-educated pretender Tony Abbott or Shorten himself, depending on how the cards fall.