Obamacare Starts Oct. 1, But How Will It Affect You?

What happens when you add 100,000 new patients to Connecticut's health care market but don't increase the number of physicians?

Delays in getting a doctor's appointment? A rush on elective surgeries? Better overall preventive care, leading to fewer emergency-room visits?

We may be about to find out.

Tuesday marks the opening of a new online marketplace for health insurance in Connecticut for policies that take effect Jan. 1.

That will create an influx of formerly uninsured patients into the health care system, but what that will mean is a matter of conjecture. The answer could depend in part on the number of people who sign up for coverage, and in part on the health of those new enrollees.

Connecticut's new online marketplace, or public exchange, called Access Health CT, estimates that its potential customers are roughly 345,000 uninsured people, or about 10 percent of the statepopulation. The U.S. Census Bureau this month put the state's uninsured rate at an even lower figure: 8 percent.

Not all of the uninsured will buy insurance this fall for coverage next year. Young, healthy people may opt to pay a penalty, which is relatively inexpensive next year compared with the cost of insurance. Also, people who aren't citizens can't get a tax subsidy and therefore health coverage won't be as affordable as it is for a citizen. So many undocumented immigrants could remain without health insurance.

Access Health CT hopes 80,000 to 100,000 people will sign up by the time open enrollment ends March 31, 2014. In addition, an estimated 20,000 to 30,000 may learn through the exchange that they qualify for Medicaid.

Some health experts say it could take longer to get an appointment with a primary care physician, though there's disagreement on the matter. It's possible that longer waits would occur only in places that are expected to havea high rate of newly insured people, such as New Haven or Hartford.

It is unlikely that the new patients will cause a rush on elective surgeries, such as hip replacements. And many hope that emergency departments will be relieved of some unnecessary visits.

Under one scenario, if there is a rush on primary care and it causes delays, some people may go to urgent care clinics instead. Doctors and hospital administrators, however, hope that mid-level providers — nurse practitioners and physician assistants — will help meet any increased demand for primary care, at least to a degree.

"A lot of these types of arguments are predicated on certain types of assumptions — that there's massive, pent-up demand. We don't know if that's true or not," said Jason Madrak, chief marketing officer for Connecticut's online marketplace, or public exchange, called Access Health CT.

"We could sign people up; it doesn't necessarily mean that they're going to be running for the nearest clinic on Day 2 of their coverage."

'Strain On The System'

Mark Schuster, a South Windsor health insurance agent for 23 years in Connecticut, said that, now, "It's a cattle call going into the doctor's office to even get an appointment." He said he believes people who buy plans on the exchange will discover that the network of doctors isn't as robust as other commercial plans, and they will be the ones having difficulty getting into a doctor.

Most people won't see a major difference, said Zack Cooper, a Yale University assistant professor of public health, health policy and economics.

The noticeable difference will be for people who are now uninsured and go "from absolute misery to having health care," he said. "The rest, OK, maybe you see on the margin a day or two longer wait."

Cooper said the drama we've seen on television about the Affordable Care Act is partisan politics and not the likely result of new health policies.

Some primary care physicians are expecting to be busier with the new crop of patients, and they saydelays are likely.

"This is going to be a strain on the system," Dr. C. Todd Staub, an internist in Litchfield and chairman of ProHealth Physicians, which has nearly 350 medical providers in more than 80 locations across the state.

What's not clear is to what degree people will wait longer to see a doctor. An extra day? More?

"We don't really know what the primary care infrastructure is in our state," Staub said. "Surprisingly, we don't have good data on that."

When people have access to good primary care, visits to hospital emergency departments decline, Staub said. Many doctors, hospital executives and insurers hope that broader coverage will translate to reduced hospital expenses, which could curb the growing cost of medical care overall. Some people now end up in an emergency room for routine treatment that could be handled at a less expensive urgent-care facility, or by a primary care doctor.