“Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure, says whistleblower”

Now the “peak oil” theory is gaining support at the heart of the global energy establishment. “The IEA in 2005 was predicting oil supplies could rise as high as 120m barrels a day by 2030 although it was forced to reduce this gradually to 116m and then 105m last year,” said the IEA source, who was unwilling to be identified for fear of reprisals inside the industry. “The 120m figure always was nonsense but even today’s number is much higher than can be justified and the IEA knows this.

A second senior IEA source, who has now left but was also unwilling to give his name, said a key rule at the organisation was that it was “imperative not to anger the Americans” but the fact was that there was not as much oil in the world as had been admitted. “We have [already] entered the ‘peak oil’ zone. I think that the situation is really bad,” he added.

<< The lowest estimate peaks around 2010, with crude oil at 80 mb/d, a figure which is 6 mb/d higher than what was actually achieved in 2005-2008. A huge, widening gap is shown between demand and supply.

This gap suddenly disappears in the WEO 2000 in which supply exactly matches demand, for the year 2010 at 95.8 mb/d (we are 10 mb/d and 2 months away from that year) and for 2020 at 114.7 mb/d.

On page 74, the WEO 2000 says: “This Outlook incorporates more optimistic estimates of the world resource base than did the 1998 WEO. The change is based on recent findings, including the latest assessment of conventional world oil and gas resources by the US Geological Survey (USGS) — their first such study since 1994. The USGS estimates that ultimate recoverable resources” of oil and natural gas liquids, including oil already being produced, total 3 345 billion barrels. This revises upwards the figures given by the 1998 WEO. In addition to figures for identified reserves and undiscovered resources, the USGS has published for the first time world-level estimates of “reserve growth” in existing fields. World oil and NGL resources from reserve growth are almost as great as resources from undiscovered fields.”

More details about the USGS 2000 survey and EIA’s supply scenarios based on this assessment can be found in my submission #75 to the Productivity Commission (Energy Efficiency)

Amazing. There seem to be quite some different assessments within the IEA itself.

In the same year, the WEO team publishes projections which are higher than ever before (see above table)

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This is an extract from my critique of the BTRE working paper #61, highlighting the flaws in the WEO 2004>>

Back to the beginning of this article: let us compare the 2006 and 2008 WEOs with the estimate of the Energy Watch Group and we see a huge gap opening up between the IEA amd the EWG. That’s what these warnings are all about.

In a stark warning to Britain and the other Western powers, Dr Birol said that the market power of the very few oil-producing countries that hold substantial reserves of oil – mostly in the Middle East – would increase rapidly as the oil crisis begins to grip after 2010.