Bangkok's Shut Down and Coup Fears Cripple Thailand

BANGKOK, Thailand -- Security forces and six million
residents are worriedly preparing to survive a 19-day
"shutdown Bangkok" protest beginning on Monday (Jan. 13),
designed to topple the elected government amid fears that
the military may help the urban insurrection by staging a
coup.

Street clashes have killed at least eight people
during the past two months of protests leading to the
shutdown which plans to cripple Thailand's government and
economy until the end of January.

Tens of thousands of
anti-election protesters plan to erect huge stages and
makeshift defensive structures at several key intersections,
congesting the heart of Bangkok.

"Even demonstrations
that are meant to be peaceful can turn confrontational, and
can escalate into violence without warning," the American
Embassy said on Tuesday (Jan. 7) in an e-mailed "security
message for U.S. citizens" describing the upcoming
shutdown.

Thousands of people staged a fresh "practice"
march in Bangkok on Thursday (Jan. 9), cheering the stocky
protest leader Suthep Thaugsuban, thrusting cash into his
hands, and begging for his autograph.

"Bring your clothes
and food with you, because we will fight for months until we
achieve victory," Mr. Suthep earlier told 150,000
supporters.

The protesters are denounced by their enemies
as "sore losers," "fascists," and "pro-dictatorship."

In
turn, the protesters describe the government as "vote
buyers" who are imposing a "tyranny of the majority."

A
front-page headline in the royalist English-language Bangkok
Post on Tuesday (Jan. 7) described a "Coup Panic" within the
government because "the military has emerged as the key
player".

"The military does not shut, nor open, the door
to a coup," Army Chief Gen. Prayuth Chan-ocha said in a
recent Bangkok Post interview.

"Anything can happen,
depending on the situation," said Gen. Prayuth who played a
role in a bloodless 2006 coup.

Academics, politicians,
and local media warn that this major non-NATO U.S. treaty
ally could implode into "civil war" if a coup is launched,
because the U.S.-trained military suffers dangerous
political divisions.

A post-coup civil war could also
erupt because tens of thousands of pro-democracy Red Shirt
activists would likely mobilize to fight for their right to
vote and protect the government they helped to elect.

The
protest includes elements of a class war waged by
monarchists and traditional elites who have convinced
Bangkok's middle class and some southerners that their urban
insurrection is the only way to achieve power.

They are
ballot box losers because their poorly led opposition
Democrat party candidates have been unable to produce a
prime minister through nationwide elections since 1992.

Many protesters despise the prime ministers that poorer
northerners, urban laborers, and wealthy "new money"
business interests are able to elect.

Today, the Democrat
party is allied with protesters boycotting the nationwide
Feb. 2 election which would replace a dissolved House of
Representatives in the bicameral Parliament.

Caretaker
Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra's popular Pheu Thai ("For
Thais") party and their coalition are expected to easily
win.

Many urban protesters also discriminate against
Thailand's north and northeastern rural ethnic Lao-Thais,
perceiving them as uneducated, easily corrupted, and
unqualified for equal voting rights.

Some analysts warn
that Thailand could become regionally split, with protesters
controlling Bangkok and the south, while pro-democracy Red
Shirts and others dominate the north and northeast.

Protest leader Mr. Suthep is dodging an arrest warrant for
multiple murders allegedly committed in 2010 when he was
deputy prime minister in the previous government.

Mr.
Suthep allegedly acted in concert with the military to crush
a pro-democracy uprising in Bangkok's streets which tried to
oust Mr.

Suthep and then-prime minister Abhisit
Vejjajiva.

More than 90 people died in 2010, most of them
Reds and other civilians, including at least two innocent
people who now comprise the alleged multiple murder case
against Mr. Suthep and Mr. Abhisit.

Despite forming a
military-backed government through an internal Parliamentary
vote in 2008, Mr. Abhisit's Democrat Party lost the next
nationwide election in 2011 which brought Ms. Yingluck to
power.

The murder charges may be one element prompting
Mr. Suthep's protest which is fueled by hate-filled,
demagogic rants.

If Mr. Suthep's protest -- or a coup
supporting him -- ousts Ms.

Yingluck, it could hamper the
murder investigation and court proceedings against Mr.
Suthep.

"We have never called for a military coup," Mr.
Suthep declared on Sunday (Jan. 5). "We are going to stage
our own people's coup."

Authorities recently issued an
additional arrest warrant for Mr.

Suthep for leading
thousands of people to forcibly occupy government buildings
and commit other violations in an "insurrection," which is
punishable by life imprisonment or lethal injection.

Police appear unable or unwilling to arrest Mr. Suthep amid
fears it could spark widespread violence by his
supporters.

During the past two weeks, protesters blocked
29 candidates from registering in the south for the
election, amid clashes which left at least three people
dead.

Ms. Yingluck's fugitive billionaire brother, former
prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, is meanwhile criticized
for his "war on drugs" during his 2001-2006 administration
which left more than 2,500 people dead.

Those
extrajudicial killings were never fully investigated, and no
charges have been laid.

After the 2006 coup toppled the
popular Mr. Thaksin, he was convicted of abuse of power and
sentenced to two years in jail -- which he is dodging by
living abroad -- and $1.2 billion of his assets were
seized.

Mr. Thaksin has been heavily involved in helping
his sister run the government, and is a target of
protesters' anger.

Mr. Suthep, Mr. Abhisit, Mr. Thaksin
and the military deny every allegation of wrongdoing, and
said they acted within the law.

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