Canadian gross domestic product rose to a seasonally adjusted 0.2 percent in March, from 0.3 percent in the preceding month. Analysts had expected economic activity in the country to expand by 0.1 percent. For April, the consensus forecast is for a GDP growth rate of 0.1 percent on a monthly basis. While the year started on a strong note, analysts are cautious of a slowdown in coming months, largely due to the devastating floods in Calgary and other parts of southern Alberta. The Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce estimates that ‘the second-largest natural disaster in Canada’ could knock a full percentage-point off the country’s annualized growth.

Market Impact Scenarios:

GDP data are closely watched and have the tendency to move markets upon release. Rising GDP figures are generally bullish for a given currency, while a falling trend is seen as bearish. A better than expected Canada GDP number will indicate higher economic activity in the country, attracting foreign investors to both the local stock market and the Treasury bond market. This increases the demand and value of the Canadian dollar relative to other foreign currencies.

Understanding GDP:

Gross domestic product is a measure of the annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced in a country during a given period of time. Gross Domestic Product is calculated as:

An economy is generally considered to be in recession if it has two successive quarters of contraction.

Canada GDP data is unique in the sense that Statistics Canada releases fresh figures on a monthly basis, and the quarterly GDP number is merely a summation of the monthly data.

The GDP of Canada represents 2.80 percent of the world economy. Historically, from 1960 until 2011, Canada GDP averaged 499.0 billion USD, reaching a record high of 1736.1 billion USD in December 2011, and a low of 40.8 billion USD in December 1961.

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