Analysis Topic: Companies Analysis

Thursday, July 21, 2011

Despite some soft China PMI data overnight, U.S. Steel (X) is up nearly 1% as it climbs towards a retest of key trendline resistance at 45.25, which if hurdled should trigger upside continuation towards the top of its May-July base formation (46.40-47.10).

A sustained hurdle of 47.10 will complete the base pattern and trigger upside projections of 50 and 52 thereafter.

Thursday, July 21, 2011

We updated both the NDX and NAZ charts today to the most obvious pattern: Primary wave V underway. If we review the NDX since 2009 we have quite a clear pattern. A 13 month rally, which subdivided into five Major waves and we labeled Primary I. Then a sharp 3 month 17% zigzag correction, which we labeled Primary II. Next comes a 7 month rally, no OEW subdivisions, into a February high. This is followed a 4 month 9% irregular flat correction that completed well above the Primary I high.

Wednesday, July 20, 2011

Yesterday we noted that Amazon (AMZN)'s failure to follow through to the downside multiple times in the session followed by a recovery rally effort intraday suggested it had ended its two-week correction. AMZN's thrust today has hurdled key resistance at 214.45-215.00, and has followed through to an intraday high so far at 217.82, which is very close to a full-fledged test of the all-time high at 218.36.

Tuesday, July 19, 2011

If the directional overlay of the big money center banks -- i.e., JP Morgan (JPM) -- on the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) is any gauge, then the mature downtrend in both JPM and the TBT is poised for a powerful upside reversal.

The TBT hit its low on July 12 at 31.87 and has climbed to 33.25, while JPM hit a new multi-month low today at 38.93, but has recovered to 39.50 so far.

Friday, July 15, 2011

I don't use Facebook. Neither does Warren Buffett, but phonies have used his name on Facebook. Earlier this month, an imposter created "my" profile on Facebook. In order to get the fake removed, Facebook required an uploaded scan of a government issued I.D. that shows a photo and birthdate (for example, a driver's license or passport). Facebook suggests one black out the most sensitive information and claims it will delete this scanned information from its servers once identity has been verified.

Friday, July 15, 2011

About 14 months ago, Google released what turned out to be the biggest flop in the company's history. It was called Buzz. The idea was to leverage its email war chest to create a social network to compete directly with Twitter and Facebook.

It released Buzz all at once and activated it immediately. Buzz even prepopulated its networks with the user's most commonly emailed friends, whether that was your pastor or your drinking buddies. That was the strategic error that revealed the underlying problem. All in an instant, worlds crashed, and people went absolutely nuts trying to shut it off.

Thursday, July 14, 2011

David Zeiler writes:
Flat or falling revenue will plague major bank earnings as second-quarter results are reported this week - delivering yet another blow to battered financial stocks.

Most of the big banks are expected to report a profit, but a falloff in equity trading volume, weak demand for loans, and costly legal headaches all ate into revenue, which will be a prime concern for already-skeptical investors.

Thursday, July 14, 2011

The past few days have been very bad for the world's largest banks. American behemoths Citigroup and Bank of America are down about 7% each. Across the Atlantic, things are far worse. BNP Paribas, Barclays, and Banco Santander are all down 13% or more... and Société Générale is down an astounding 16%!

Monday, July 11, 2011

Purely from a technical perspective, my pattern work in JP Morgan (JPM) has been arguing that the late-June upmove from 39.20 to 41.72 represented the end of a major correction off of the Feb 16 high at 48.36 and the start of a powerful intermediate-term recovery period.

Monday, July 11, 2011

Jon D. Markman writes:
Market bulls and bears are at a standoff as global economic recovery struggles - but not all stocks are in danger of slipping.

Major U.S. stock indexes inched higher by 0.5% to 1.5% over the past week as optimism that companies will report higher second-quarter profits outweighed fears that job growth is crashing. But the final day of the week was a downer, with losses across the board and across the world following a terrible report on U.S. employment.

Saturday, July 09, 2011

George Maniere writes: Yesterday my brother and I were having a conversation about how to value a company. We concluded that a company should not be valued on price but on the correlation of the P/E Multiple to the growth rate. So first me must understand and be able to figure out what the P/E Multiple is. The P/E Multiple can easily be expressed in the algebraic equation Price of the Stock (P) = The Earnings per Share (E) X the Multiple. Another way to express that is P/E = M. That seems pretty easy and clear but there is an important variable. The price of the stock is always changing. And this will chance the multiple accordingly.

Tuesday, July 05, 2011

Sales of autos fell to an annual rate of 11.45 million units in June from 11.79 million units in May. In the second quarter, auto sales dropped at an annual rate of 25.3% after a nearly 25% jump in the first quarter. The bulk of the decline in auto sales was not from a reduction in supply of autos due to the natural disaster in Japan but also a weakness in sales.

Tuesday, July 05, 2011

Larry D. Spears writes:
If there's one skill you need to learn, it's how to profit from inflation.

Thanks to the cheap-money policies of Team Bernanke at the U.S. Federal Reserve, the escalating levels of global sovereign debt, and other recent developments in the world economy, it's clear that we're headed for a period of steeply rising prices - inflation. If you know how to navigate this tricky stretch, you'll be fine. But those who don't are going to really feel the squeeze.

Wednesday, June 29, 2011

Martin Hutchinson writes: If you're like me, you've been invested in mining companies or oil producers the last couple of months because you expected a return to the strong commodity prices of early 2011.

But if that's the case, like me, you're hurting. Commodity prices are well below the high levels we saw in early May - in fact, they've dropped more than the rest of the market.

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