Monday, July 27, 2009

With 24 of the top 40 runners graduating the team competition is wide open in 2009. This year the top 4 spots qualify for the State Championships and with some support from a few underclassmen any team could vault themselves into a State qualifying spot. The fact that only 16 of the top 40 runners return this year should allow ample opportunity for the underclassman to shine. In fact, the team competition is likely to come down to which team has the fastest number 5 runner! The question is: Who will step up in 2009?

Aptos won handily in 2008 and is once again the favorite. Saint Ignatius was hit hard by graduation and will need the younger talent to step up big. They will be challenged by Pioneer, who will need the Strum brothers to translate their success on the track to cross country. Even if they both place in the top 5 at CCS they will need help from the 3-5 runners. Willow Glen looks good and could be #2 with help from a solid Frosh-Soph crew, but they will need to hold it together as a new coach takes the reins. North Monterey County could pull it off as they return three strong runners but will need help from the 4 and 5 runners. With a good freshman any one of these teams could make a run for the title!

Division 3 looks to be very competitive for 2009. Last year Saint Ignatius won thanks to a strong team performance where their scoring runners were all in the top 20, led by an impressive 2-3 finish by Daly and Hinds. With an impressive number of JV and Frosh-Soph runners looking to move up to the varsity ranks they will be tough again.

But the pre-season favorite has to be Aptos. Led by Marissa Ferrante, Aptos has three of the top 6 returning runners this year in D3. Their top 6 all return and could very well have 5 runners all in the 18’s at Crystal Springs this year. This team is going to be very hard to beat in 2009.

Valley Christian could be in the mix again as they return of 6 of their top 7 runners from 2008. North Monterey County, Note Dame – San Jose and Sacred Heart are also right there and if they have a good day could easily surprise some people.

I understand the whole low standards thing however boys develop at different rates. A skinny little freshman/sophomore boy running a sub 5:00 minute 1600 has the potential to develop into a competitive runner.

An example would be Rogan Meza of Burlingame (can't speak what he looked like as a freshman or sophomore) but he ran 5:04.71 and 10:42.53 at the league finals as a sophomore. This year he ran 4:21.35 at the CCS finals and 9:39.92 at the CCS Top 8 Meet.

Our top boy miler last year (who plays football) ran 4:50 in 8th grade. Last year ran 4:30 as a freshman. I think that's pretty good.

Sub 5 for an 8th grade boy is very good and can develop into a huge talent. When I was in high school over in Santa Cruz one 8th grader ran 5-ish and went on to run 4:16 for Soquel. An Aptos runner who barely got in the 4:40's as a freshman went on to be state champion in the 3200.

I know plenty of others...

It is not about low standards but about potential and development. Don't be so negative.

The girls will be interesting especially in the WCAL. SI, Valley Christian, Presentation, Sacred Heart & St. Francis will all be in the mix. Will be interesting to see if SI can bring up from JV & Frosh to the same level as years before. I believe SH and Valley Christian will sneak in with some interesting times. Experience will be a big key in how well the times do once they move past their league.