PM Morrison buoyant heading into budget

His NSW Liberal colleagues pulled off a win last Saturday to retain majority government.

Labor is licking its wounds after NSW leader Michael Daley stepped aside following the election result, and later announced he would not even contest the party's leadership ballot.

The Nationals are back on side after being thrown a very tasty bone - a feasibility study into a new power station in north Queensland, possibly run on coal.

And next week his Treasurer Josh Frydenberg will deliver a healthy surplus while setting aside a big bag of loot to spend on tax cuts, roads, rail, hospitals and schools.

There's also evidence of the poll numbers going Morrison's way.

The latest Essential survey published on Tuesday saw the Liberal-National coalition primary vote up two points over the fortnight to 39 per cent - three points ahead of Labor.

However, Labor's 52-48 two-party preferred lead is being strongly propped up by a Greens primary vote of 10 per cent.

Any shift in the pre-budget Newspoll - which has favoured Labor for over 1000 days - next week will be eagerly embraced by the government.

Morrison has enacted a two-fold strategy in recent months.

The first is to neutralise Labor's attacks by embracing some of the opposition's policies and tapping into public anger against other parts of the ALP platform, such as franking credit and negative gearing changes.

The second is to neutralise unrest in his own ranks.

The Nationals and some conservative Liberals have been hassling him to clarify how the government would approach climate change and his willingness to back coal-fired power.

They want to do just enough on climate change to keep metropolitan voters on side, but also telegraph to regional voters - especially in mining communities - that their jobs and businesses are safe because long-term electricity is assured.

Hence the budget will include money for more Abbott-era "direct action" and signal how the government will underwrite a range of energy projects including gas, hydro and coal.

The prime minister has also spent the past few weeks travelling across the country to unveil "congestion busting" road projects - much welcomed by candidates and backbenchers alike.

The next part of the strategy is to deliver a budget on Tuesday night targeted at the hip-pockets of all Australians, from the low-paid to the wealthy.

As well, it needs to neutralise one of Labor's strongest arguments: that the government does not have as firm a commitment to improving health care as the opposition.

Heading into the budget, voters are sceptical about who will be the biggest beneficiaries.

Just 19 per cent of voters, according to the Essential poll, believed they would personally benefit from the budget, while 58 per cent said it would be good for the rich.

The post-budget spin will be more important than ever, as Morrison is expected to call a May 11 election on the weekend after the budget.

The wildcard heading in to the election campaign is the one third of Australian voters who will likely back minor parties and independents.

Pauline Hanson's One Nation is sitting on about seven per cent of the primary vote, despite the scandal over her advisers leaping at the chance of getting money and other support from the American gun lobby, the NRA..

Morrison stepped in this week to ensure the Liberals preference One Nation below Labor on how-to-vote cards, but not without copping several days of damage over delaying his decision whether to preference them last.

The Nationals won't play the same game since One Nation preferences will be crucial in key seats and the idea of softer gun laws, more coal-fired power stations and stemming the flow of Muslim migrants sits well with a large portion of its rural and regional support base.

Scott Morrison has some reason for optimism, but there's not much time to turn things around for the coalition.