Not only the EU but everybody has to be doing some fresh thinking. Our present impotence in the face of many complex and seemingly unsolvable problems can only be remedied when we recognise that the old power games, even if they don't lead to world war, can still ferment the kind of horrors we now see in Syria, etc. EVERYBODY has to admit that sovereignty in global affairs resides in and ONLY in a global authority - which we lamentably lack still but ever more desperately need.

I don't try to comment on the issues concerning Russia or Turkey.
I would like to address the question about managing a "multi-polar" system.
Because I think this is where we have been failing.

When people organize "unions", cooperation these days they somehow think that the only way such union, "global cooperation" can work if people gradually all become similar, dumbed down, wanting, producing and consuming the same goods, pleasures, following the same "value system/culture".

Thus mass media, marketing has been working hard to create such a dumbed down mass similarity all across the globe.
Consciously, unconsciously we are doing a lot of things trying to delete all original, traditional individual and national characteristics, differences to make such "forced globalization", creating a single market for production/consumption more effective.

The "problem" is that we can't erase our identities, we can't completely delete our individual and national characteristics, traits even aggressively.
Sooner or later we reach a threshold where people start rebounding and fighting back against such forceful, unnatural "amalgamation".

And as that "rebound" is then exploited by opportunists then we start falling back into nationalism, populism, extremism and usually reach either revolutions, wars and then when the dust settles we start again.

Instead we would need to learn how to create mutually complementing cooperation while respecting, keeping the underlying differences, individual and national uniqueness, building something mutually beneficial above them.
Of course that would also require a complete change in our aims and value system.

That would require a complete shift in the purpose why we want to cooperate, building interconnected societies.
At the moment our aim is purely economic, financial, we look at humanity as a giant Ponzi scheme producing constant quantitative growth and never ending profit for those in control without taking into consideration that we are actually emotional, social beings belonging to a natural, evolutionary system.

We need to rebuild our societies on traditional humane and moral values, principles if we want to avoid another "civilization-ending" meltdown and create a sustainable world for ourselves and for our children.

Mark Leonard is raising an issue that the EU can't ignore. Apart from the risk of disintegration as well as the north/south and east/west divides within the bloc, it has to seriously deal with two important "disgruntled neighbours" - Russia and Turkey. The two mavericks have benefited from the crises that the EU is grappling with. Hostility runs deep between Turkey and the EU and their powerful NATO ally, the US, driving Recep Tayyip Erdogan into the arms of Vladimir Putin.
Despite strained relationship Europe needs Turkey to uphold the refugee deal, curbing the influx of migrants into Europe. The US is eager to resolve the dispute with Turkey over the Islamic cleric, Fethullah Gülen, who is living in US exile. He is wanted by Turkey for the failed coup last July. Besides Washington needs Turkey to play a bigger role in fighting ISIS in Syria.
Turkey's ambition to join the EU has allowed the two parties to get together, which helps ease tensions. However due the West's tough stance towards Putin following the 2014 annexation of Crimea, the sanctions imposed against Russia has alienated Moscow, and equally divided the EU, exposing its "member states' varying historic, geographic, and economic interests." The author calls countries - Estonia, Poland, Sweden, and the United Kingdom - which have Russia as their immediate neighbour, "Europe's new cold warriors" because they "have stood up to Russian aggression." Austria, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Slovakia, "and other countries only signed on to sanctions reluctantly, and are more open to engagement" with the Kremlin.
The author mentions that six years ago, he warned "of the specter of a multipolar Europe, wherein the rules and institutions affecting European countries would not all be decided by the EU. That specter has become a living reality." But he also viewed enhanced co-operation between the EU, Turkey and Russia as both unavoidable and desirable. He said European security structures were dysfunctional, EU countries were pulling in different directions, and "the US is no longer focused on Europe's internal security."
It is true that America's unipolar post-cold war order is unravelling. Washington is being distracted by Iraq, Syria, the rise of China and Russia. It had failed to prevent wars in Georgia and Kosovo. Obama admitted last April that his handling of the 2011 intervention in Libya was a serious mistake. He lets Russia get away with destabilising Ukraine and has been reluctant to intervene in Syria. Europe is bearing the brunt of the ongoing violence in its backyard.
Six years ago, Leonard argued that "a 'trialogue' involving the EU, Turkey and Russia should be established." Turkey was an emerging regional power then, with a policy of "zero problem with neighbours." Today - despite Erdogan's authoritarian streak - the country is "a critical player, because its geopolitical reach covers regions where the EU and Russia are both actively engaged - from the Balkans and Central Asia to the Middle East." The author proposed a "fast-track" EU membership for Ankara, to prevent a possible "alliance" between Turkey and Russia "against the EU." He also advised Europe to directly engage Moscow's new "westpolitik", saying: "A European security identity should be fostered by encouraging the involvement of Russia in projects like missile defence." This would alleviate Putin's fear of having NATO weapons at Russia's border.
Although the worry of such an alliance "may be premature," despite recent rapprochement, Russia and Turkey have a long history of conflict. In the Syrian war, Putin and Erdogan have their own views and agendas regarding Assad's future. It is unclear how Ankara and Moscow can agree on security in the Black Sea and the fate of the Crimean Tatars after Russia's annexation.
The author's message to Europe is that "the EU needs to develop fresh thinking so that member states can agree on how best to manage these relationships." A divided EU would find itself "increasingly isolated and alone in a neighborhood where new powers have moved in." The question is whether Europe's weakness is transient or permanent. Yet there is doubt that the rise of countries in "Eastern Europe and the Balkans to Central Asia and Syria," is substainable enough to see the end of Europe. We may live in a world uncertainty and instability, but democracy will prevail and Europe will live to see the failure of illiberal democracy in Russia and Turkey.﻿

I agree with the concerns about a Molotov-Ribbentrop pact from comments below. Perhaps less significantly (in world terms), the Uk would not want its young men to be marched off to another Drang Nach Osten in an EU army, or to be forced to pay for one. The ganging up on the UK with threats of neo colonial rule under duress of trade sanctions, will inevitably destroy legitimacy for military alliance. We have already seen Eastern European states blackmailing the UK into force deployments and that is a fundamental cultural misunderstanding as it will surely break UK-continental military alliance, and also NATO if anti British Clinton wins the US elections.

BREXIT IS THE FIRST SHOT - FOR MULTIPOLAR EUROPE
The world view and global strategic policies that emanates from each European Great Power is different.
Britain Germany France Spain Italy plus Russia Turkey - all have very different agendas.
CLUBWEST was a culmination from a history of meltdowns - Europe was one pillar BUT The Anglosphere was the Senior Partner.
CLUBMED in the pursuit of its different agenda, diminishes CLUBWEST. The Atlantic bridge between the Two must not be undermined.
Pushed to breaking point, The Anglosphere always has kept alternatives to The Atlantic option in The Pacific.
The narrative of a geographical union - Europe - that can take over The World, is not backed with substance.
Foremost is Europe's Security architecture - without NATO it's success is questionable.
Second is Europe's Economics architecture - CLUBMED remains an endless supplier of migrants.
In undermining both Europe's North and The Anglosphere - CLUBMED has overplayed its majority within EU.
Multipolar Europe has to date been ambushed by CLUBMED majority within.
Real Europe - of its dreams - is possible once The Majority is no longer able to ambush The Minority.
Otherwise, Brexit is just the first shot.

The EU certainly needs to be more sensitive to the interests of surrounding states. For too long, it has trolled for partners among states engaged in regional conflicts, and too often taken the side of the weaker state only because it was a more pliable negotiating partner. This was true in the Aegean with Greece and Cyprus, the Balkans with Croatia and Slovenia, and the former Soviet Union with the Ukraine. The net result, however, was to leave the EU with weak partners and clients, and strong enemies. In the future, the EU really needs to deal more prudently with rival states, offering the same deal to both sides and accepting neither as partner or client until the basis of the regional conflict or rivalry is resolved. That may slow the EU's expansion and complicate accession negotiations, but it will ensure that the EU does not import (and aggravate) problems as it accepts new members.

i don't agree seeing in Russia relation with Turkay as something long lasting strategy. but agree Europe will became more bipolar. Finally twenty five years after we can't any more explain politacal choices with previously experienced cold war in Europe. If we realize it then we will see how free market for politacal ideas will open and opening has started already.

Current Turkey under the rule of Mr. Erdogan has been working to transform the political system into a SUNNI based religious system, is not interested in EU membership, but using membership as a tactical reason to continue with his political agenda. Mr Erdogan, who had said in the past that "all the means, which we can use to achieve our political aim, are justifiable tools for us to use them", is good at using such tactical political tools. Mr. Erdogan is well aware that the system he wants to establish is not compatible with EU political values. Current political implementation demonstrates clearly that democracy and democratic rights are used as tool (not as end-goal) to achieve a undemocratic system.

The irony is that the silence of the EU against (has been ongoing) antidemocratic rule of Mr. Erdogan.

Mark is this not symptomatic of the problems Europe has to grow to such a large part of the map and yet keep everyone on the same page allkaincewise. Alliances are created by near neighbours and the real politik - it is obvious that countries bordering other power blocs will have other priorities which are not replicated in Brussels - the South and North of Europe have different issues to deal with.

The UK has other alliances and concerns outside of the EU but has been limited to defend those interests because of the gravitation towards Brussels - surely what we are seeing is the failure of "one size" to fit all. A One Size military policy; foreign relations policy and One size economic policy doesn't work...hence the need for deeper change in Europe and more flexibility so that nations with differing needs and priorities have those needs properly addressed.

This (naturally) will be the problem of a one world government - not everyone has the same Agenda, you would like to imagine the powers that be have worked that out by now.

New Comment

Pin comment to this paragraph

After posting your comment, you’ll have a ten-minute window to make any edits. Please note that we moderate comments to ensure the conversation remains topically relevant. We appreciate well-informed comments and welcome your criticism and insight. Please be civil and avoid name-calling and ad hominem remarks.

Log in/Register

Please log in or register to continue. Registration is free and requires only your email address.

Log in

Register

Emailrequired

PasswordrequiredRemember me?

Please enter your email address and click on the reset-password button. If your email exists in our system, we'll send you an email with a link to reset your password. Please note that the link will expire twenty-four hours after the email is sent. If you can't find this email, please check your spam folder.