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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-04 Version:13

Prediction Map

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

270 |

538 |

Dem

353

Rep

185

Ind

0

Confidence States Won

270 |

538 |

Dem

291

Rep

163

Ind

0

Tos

84

State Pick-ups

Gain

Loss

Hold

Net Gain

ST

CD

EV

ST

CD

EV

ST

CD

EV

Dem

+8

0

+101

0

0

0

20

2

252

+101

Rep

0

0

0

-8

0

-101

23

3

185

-101

Ind

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Prediction Score (max Score = 112)

Score

State Wins

State Percentages

CD Wins

CD Percentages

99

50

42

4

3

Analysis

Final map. If Obama has a good night, then Missouri and Indiana should flip to him. Anything beyond that seems unlikely though not impossible...though admittedly somewhat storybooky.

Unless polling throughout this cycle has been systemically flawed, either because of Bradley effects or incorrect turnout models, or Democratic complacency plagues the electorate, Barack Obama will be the 44th President of the United States.