Hezbollah's Gambit in Lebanon

The Lebanese government has collapsed
after Hezbollah and its allies resigned their seats in the cabinet,
leaving it without a governing majority. Hezbollah had threatened to
resign over an ongoing United Nations investigation that is expected to
blame the group for the 2005 bombing that killed then-Prime Minister
Rafik Hariri. His son Saad Hariri, the current prime minister, refuses to condemn the investigation as Hezbollah demands. Here's what
Lebanon-watchers are saying about this developing political crisis and
what it means for the country.

Hezbollah's Mission to Dominate LebanonThanassis Cambanis writes
in the New York Times that this is "the final stage in Hezbollah’s rise
from resistance group to ruling power. While Hezbollah technically
remains the head of the political opposition in Beirut, make no mistake:
the Party of God has fully consolidated its control in Lebanon, and
will stop at nothing--including civil war--to protect its position."
However, "Hezbollah cannot afford the blow to its popular legitimacy
that would occur if it is pinned with the Hariri killing. The group's
power depends on the unconditional backing of its roughly 1 million
supporters. Its constituents are the only audience that matters to
Hezbollah."

Can Lebanese People Resist Hezbollah? The Council on Foreign Relations' Elliott Abrams writes that
"the majority of Lebanese who oppose Hizballah, and who are mostly
Maronite Catholics, Druze, and Sunni, must demonstrate that they have
the will to keep their country from complete domination by the Shia
terrorist group. This is asking quite a bit, to be sure, but Lebanese
should have learned from the impact of their March 14, 2005
demonstrations that world support can be rallied and their opponents can
pushed back. But they must take the lead." He concludes, "Those who
wish Lebanon well must also hope that its political leaders and its
populace show the considerable courage that this crisis demands of
them."

Dilemma for Hezbollah and Its Sponsor, Syria "Neither
Hizbullah nor Syria is pleased with what is going on," The Beirut Daily Star's Michael Young writes. "For the party,
all the contentious means of crippling the tribunal have grave
shortcomings. A serious political or security escalation would only
harden discord at a moment when Hizbullah’s primary goal is to show that
Lebanon is united in its rejection of the special tribunal. As for
[Syrian President Bashar] Assad, if he
pushes too hard, he may lose for good the Lebanese Sunni card, which he
has worked for years to regain. Hariri alone can issue Hizbullah with a
certificate of innocence, and if the prime minister decides to sit the
coming period out of office, it is difficult to see how any
opposition-led government would function properly."

No Good Options for U.S. Here, The New York Times' Mark Landler and Robert Worth
explain: "In contrast to the Iranian case, where the Obama
administration doggedly stitched together a sanctions campaign that it
claims has delayed Iran’s pursuit of a nuclear bomb, the United States
has fewer options in Lebanon." While the U.S. supports Hariri and
opposes Hezbollah, there's not much they can actually do. "The American
role has largely been confined to advising Mr. Hariri to stand firm in
his support for the tribunal."

Hezbollah's Distorted View of Itself The Center for New American Security's Andrew Exum points out
that Hezbollah is in part motivated by a misguided sense of
"insecurity." While the group is very powerful, it "sees itself as so
very weak." He explains, "To an outsider, Hizballah looks like the big
bully in Lebanon--which it most certainly is. But from within the
organization, all many can see are enemies: Saudi Arabia, Israel, March
14th, the United States, etc. Just because you're paranoid does not mean
people are not out to get you, and we know that Hizballah's domestic
enemies have conspired with forces outside Lebanon to weaken Hizballah's
standing."

How This Might End "In the end, and this may well have been Hezbollah's
intention," predicts Steven Heydemann
in Foreign Policy, "the collapse of the government could pave the way for an
exit from the current stalemate." In the short term, "A new Lebanese
Prime Minister-with Saudi and Syrian backing-concedes to Hezbollah's
demands and rejects the findings of the Special Tribunal, while a
neutered Hariri and his supporters rail against the injustice from the
back benches of Lebanese Parliament." This would "avoid outright
bloodshed" and "reinforce [the UN tribunal's] already politicized image
in the Arab world." In the long term, "It would decisively consolidate
Hezbollah's standing as Lebanon's dominant political force, and signal
with a whimper rather than a bang, the final demise of Lebanon's Cedar
Revolution."

News reports are focusing on the Germanwings pilot's possible depression, following a familiar script in the wake of mass killings. But the evidence shows violence is extremely rare among the mentally ill.