Jared Olar: Will Herman Cain take GOP by storm?

Thursday

Sep 29, 2011 at 12:01 AMSep 29, 2011 at 6:39 PM

Well, well. Herman Cain trounced all his rivals in the Florida Republican straw poll last weekend. I didn’t see that one coming at all. I admit I haven’t been paying a great deal attention to the Republican presidential race lately, but I haven’t been entirely ignoring it either (in my line of work, that’s really not possible to do).

Jared Olar

Well, well. Herman Cain trounced all his rivals in the Florida Republican straw poll last weekend.

I didn’t see that one coming at all. I admit I haven’t been paying a great deal attention to the Republican presidential race lately, but I haven’t been entirely ignoring it either (in my line of work, that’s really not possible to do).

I was aware that Rep. Michele Bachmann’s campaign had pretty much fizzled after her victory in the Iowa straw poll, losing momentum when Texas Gov. Rick Perry entered the race. I knew that, to all appearances, the GOP race was resolving into a two-man race between Perry and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. The other candidates were hardly out of the picture, but most of the attention was on Perry and Romney.

Cain’s campaign, however, was attracting hardly any attention at all. In fact, the tea party favorite, a former successful CEO of Godfather’s Pizza and chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, had been gearing down and preparing to quit the race.

Then, seemingly out of the blue, whammo! — he takes home 37.1 percent of the vote of the Florida GOP straw poll. Perry came in second with 15.4 percent, Romney was third with 14 percent, and Bachmann was dead last with 1.5 percent.

What, if anything, does that mean?

An obvious answer is that it means the Republican presidential race is far from over. We’re still over a year away from the 2012 election, and the presidential race doesn’t begin in earnest until the first caucuses and primaries, which aren’t for a few more months. A lot can change between now and then.

It also means that hard work pays off. One reason Cain won in Florida is because he worked the hardest of all of the candidates. In comparison, Romney decided to sit out this poll as he’d done in Iowa, and coasted to a comfy defeat in third-place. Perry put in a more of an effort, but was probably hurt by his terrible performance in the GOP debate in Orlando last week.

The Florida results don’t seem to be a fluke, either. This week a new Zogby poll, taken after the Orlando debate but before the straw poll, put Cain in the lead, with 28 percent support, followed by Perry at 18 percent and Romney at 17 percent, with Bachmann trailing at 4 percent. The Zogby numbers are remarkable because they gauge the opinion of all likely voters and likely Republican primary voters, not just that of Florida GOP leaders and activists.

In other words, GOP support for Cain has been surging nationally, not just among Florida Republicans. After an early burst of enthusiasm, support for Perry has been ebbing, while conservative Republican uneasiness with Romney has remained a problem for him. That’s probably why neither Romney’s name recognition nor his party connections nor his mopping the floor with Perry at the Orlando debate has been helping him.

In part, this new life breathed into Cain’s presidential bid reflects dissatisfaction or disappointment with the current or former frontrunners, but dissatisfaction with Perry or Romney of itself doesn’t explain why more Republicans are giving Cain a fresh look. No doubt the fact that he gives a really great stump speech helps to explain his growing support. Many conservatives also like his proposals to save Social Security and reform and simplify the tax code.

They’re probably also impressed with his business acumen and his head for numbers, and his genuine rags-to-riches story: the son of a maid and a janitor who became a mathematician and then a businessman with a gift for rescuing flailing businesses.

With the U.S. flailing economically and at times feeling rudderless internationally, the Republicans just might decide that someone with that kind of experience and talent could offer the American people some change they can really believe in.

Besides that, a face-off between two African-American candidates would definitely be one for the history books, and would revolutionize race relations in the U.S.

It might even get leftists to stop leveling baseless accusations of racism against the tea party and the Republican Party.

Nah, that’s just crazy talk.

Community editor Jared Olar may be reached at 346-1111, ext. 660, or at jolar@pekintimes.com. The views expressed in this column are not necessarily those of the Pekin Daily Times.