2018 Hollywood Turf Cup

Brandon A. QuickThu 22/11/2018 - 09:56 EST

The Grade 2 Hollywood Turf Cup is a nice post-Thanksgiving entree, as eight older horses will contest the 1 1/2-mile turf event Friday, Nov.23 at Del Mar (3:00 PM PT post). From where I sit, the race looks to be a difficult one to sort out, but these types of races can reward bettors willing to dig into the finer details to find an edge, and that's exactly what I'll do here.

If one were to simply study speed figures here, you’d be left with the impression that at least 5 of the 8 runners have a legitimate chance to win. Beach View (6/1), Bigger Picture (5/2), Ashleyluvssugar (9/2), Ya Gotta Wann (4/1) and Chicago Style (3/1) have all recorded Beyer Speed Figures between 96-99 in recent starts.

Betting Tips

Sorting out the field

So what gives? Bigger Picture and Ashleyluvssugar appear to have a class edge, but they both enter this race on 7-race losing streaks. That’s not exactly the kind of horse I like to take a short price on in a wide-open event.

Here’s the entire field:

Beach View 6/1

Krewe Chief 20/1

Bigger Picture 5/2

Can’thelpbelieving 8/1

Ashleyluvssugar 9/2

Marckie’s Water 12/1

Ya Gotta Wanna 4/1

Chicago Style 3/1

Chicago Style and Beach View are the up-and-comers of the group. Chicago Style, a former claimer, has won 5 of 10 starts for trainer Thomas Proctor and enters this race following a deceptively good fifth-place finish in the Lure Stakes going a mile Nov.2 at Santa Anita. Chicago Style should improve with the added distance and while making his second start of a layoff greater than 180 days (19% move for Proctor).

I like what Beach View did winning the Grade 3 Cougar II Handicap at Del Mar last-out, but there are two problems: that race was on dirt, and Beach View hasn’t been seen since the July 25 triumph.

Bottom line pick

All signs point to Chicago Style for me. The five year-old gelding likes to win races and, in fact, was beaten just a neck in this spot a year ago. He seems to be coming into the race in good order and will be right on the wire. I’d like to get better than 3/1 here, but that’s probably a fair price.

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