@ARTICLE {RaulierLeGoffGauthierEtAl2013,
AUTHOR = {Raulier, F. and Le Goff, H. and Gauthier, S. and Rapanoela, R. and
Bergeron, Y.},
TITLE = {Introducing two indicators for fire risk consideration in the management
of boreal forests},
JOURNAL = {Ecological Indicators},
YEAR = {2013},
VOLUME = {24},
PAGES = {451-461},
ABSTRACT = {When forest fires are taken into account during timber supply analyses,
planned harvest rates are necessarily reduced to prevent potential
timber shortages due to future forest fires. Because fire events
are highly unpredictable, forest managers are reluctant to proactively
reduce harvest targets, as it results in an immediate revenue loss.
We explored a simple but proactive way of including the risks and
uncertainties of fire in forest management planning through the identification
of low productivity forest areas most vulnerable to fire in two different
boreal forest zones. Site index and relative density index were used
to estimate the time required to reach different harvesting thresholds
based on stem size and tree density. We varied the production objective
by using three different thresholds of minimum stem size (dm3/tree)
and stand yield (m3/ha) (50 dm3/tree – 50 m3/ha, 70 dm3/tree – 70
m3/ha, 90 dm3/tree – 90 m3/ha). We estimated the time required to
reach these thresholds and the proportion of forest zone that could
exceed them. Fire cycle length was then used to assess the survival
likelihood (probability of reaching the threshold at the stand scale
when considering fire risk). An alternative rate of return was also
used as an indicator of profit exposure to fire risk. When survival
likelihood and alternative rate of return are considered jointly
with time-declining interest rates, minimum survival likelihoods
need to be higher for longer fire cycles. The proportion of stands
vulnerable to fire served to decide whether or not to include fire
risk into strategic planning. The identification of major break points
in the vulnerability assessment also helped to decide which minimum
harvesting threshold is appropriate as a function of the productivity
characteristics and fire cycle of the forest under management.},
DOI = {10.1016/j.ecolind.2012.07.023},
ISSN = {1470-160X},
KEYWORDS = {Risk assessment; Sustainable forest management; Forest productivity;
Boreal forest; Forest fire; Survival likelihood probability},
OWNER = {amriv2},
TIMESTAMP = {2012.12.20},
URL = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X12002889},
}