Now that the Johan Santana sweepstakes has gone into extra innings, outlasting baseball's winter meetings and enticing fresh bidders, the Padres have to be wondering what they could get for Jake Peavy.

They have to wonder. But they don't have to waffle. They should probably get the Peavy deal done before they have a chance to reconsider.

Elite starting pitching is so scarce and so essential that those clubs that find it are loath to lose it. The Minnesota Twins are exploring Santana's trade value only because they have despaired of cutting a long-term deal with the two-time Cy Young Award winner.

Yet even though the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox both raised their opening bids for Santana, dangling players previously deemed untouchable, and though the New York Mets now appear poised to raise the ante yet again, the Padres would be better served signing Peavy to a contract extension than soliciting offers from bigger-spending ballclubs.

Already sensitive to the perception that they have shortchanged fans who helped fund their new ballpark, the Padres can ill-afford the fallout of failing to keep a 26-year-old Cy Young Award winner who has spent his entire professional career in the organization.

If John Moores & Minions were unwilling to pay Peavy close to market value, the backlash would be bitter and the credibility of the franchise could take years to rebuild. Though Padres fans are generally resigned that their club will not compete for the priciest free agents – witness Andruw Jones' new deal with the Dodgers – they are entitled to expect serious negotiations with those stars who rise through the ranks.

They are entitled to expect that Jake Peavy will still be pitching for the Padres when President Whozits is running for re-election in 2012. They are entitled to expect that a midrevenue team in a $6 billion business has the means to keep its best pitcher on the mound.

Happily, Padres management has arrived at the same conclusion. Though some details remain unresolved and Peavy must pass a physical, the framework already in place would guarantee the pitcher $52 million for extending his current deal three more years through 2012. The deal could eventually be worth $70 million if the Padres exercise a 2013 option.

This is serious money by anyone's standards and, Axelrod acknowledges, “certainly a departure on what the Padres have done in the past.”

If the deal is slightly less rewarding than those signed by San Francisco's Barry Zito and Chicago's Carlos Zambrano, this reflects not only the notorious San Diego Discount but Peavy's personal predicament.

Two years short of free agency, Peavy lacks some of the leverage he would have on the open market. If he's settling for 95 cents on the dollar, he's also avoiding the risk of a price-slashing injury.

That the Padres are willing to absorb much of that risk (albeit mitigated by insurance) tells you how precious starting pitching has become. If the Red Sox are willing to trade the pitcher who clinched the World Series (Jon Lester) and/or a gifted center fielder (Jacoby Ellsbury) for a pitcher the Twins can control only one more year, that's a significant shift in the market.

Just two years ago, the Red Sox acquired Josh Beckett and slugging third baseman Mike Lowell from Florida for four prospects considerably less proven than Lester and Ellsbury.

Presumably, trading Peavy could also bring a multiplayer bounty. If the Yankees were willing to swap previously off-limits pitcher Phil Hughes and center fielder Melky Cabrera for Santana, they would likely craft a comparable deal for Peavy. Due diligence demands that the Padres investigate all of their options. (Towers was traveling yesterday and did not immediately respond to an interview request.)

“Kevin (Towers) openly said they have to run through their progressions of what are all the possible things we can do in dealing with Jake Peavy,” Axelrod said. “I do think that the Padres have been in the driver's seat. . . . They were certainly not going to make a deal for Jake Peavy unless they could dominate the trade.”

Axelrod said the frenzied activity now surrounding Santana might have had more bearing on Peavy had it happened two weeks ago. Today, the Padres and Peavy have reached haggling's homestretch with a deal nearly done.