•We expect Innergex to have weak financial metrics in 2018 due to the timing and financing of acquisitions, although it expects these to improve in 2019.

•Innergex is issuing nonrecourse debt at the asset level and intends to sell its HS Orka geothermal assets in Iceland, using proceeds to reduce parent-level debt; however, this introduces incremental execution risk.

•If the debt reduction strategy is delayed or the amount is lower than expected, financial metrics might not recover to the 24%-26% range, which could result in a downgrade.

…. Innergex has completed a number of acquisitions in 2018 that have increased leverage both through acquired debt and development financing at the corporate level. Although the company expects to de-lever in 2019 through asset level financing and asset sales, we believe that there is execution risk with this strategy. Our financial forecasts project Innergex moving back into the stable range of 24%-26% funds from operations (FFO)-to-debt in 2019. However, they are predicated on completing asset sales, which raises significant execution risk and reflects our outlook revision to negative from stable.

The negative outlook reflects significantly lower FFO-to-debt ratios of about 18% in 2018, compared with expectations of 23% at the ‘BBB-‘ level. S&P Global Ratings’ expects Innergex to face execution risk with its strategy of improving forecast financial metrics through asset level financing and asset sales, and the outlook reflects the deteriorating financial performance. S&P Global Ratings expects FFO-to-debt to recover to the 24%-26% range in 2019 and 2020.

A downgrade could happen if the FFO-to-debt ratio does not recover and remains above 23% over our two-year outlook period. This could result from Innergex’s inability to execute on its asset sale plan that it would use to reduce nonrecourse debt. In addition, given the limited cushion in financial metrics above the 23% FFO-to-debt downgrade trigger, lower-than-expected distributions from its subsidiary assets or an increase in nonrecourse debt used to finance development or acquisition opportunities could lead to a downgrade.

An outlook revision to stable could occur if Innergex deleverages, by paying down bridge and revolving credit facility with asset sales, such that FFO-to-debt metrics return to, and stay in, the 24%-26% range.