Now that the future is here, how fitting that researchers are finally
getting a grip on optimism, the curious human habit of expecting good things
to happen, often in defiance of reality. Dozens of recent studies show
that optimists do better than pessimists in work, school and sports, suffer
less depression, achieve more goals, respond better to stress, wage more
effective battles against disease and, yes, live longer.

The popularity of optimism research has convinced some scholars that
psychology should focus less on misery and more on why things go right.

"Social science now finds itself in almost total darkness about the
qualities that make life most worth living," said Dr. Martin Seligman,
a University of Pennsylvania psychologist and past president of the American
Psychological Association, in a 1998 speech.

Over the last three decades, he said, citing another scholar's spadework,
there were 46,000 papers in the psychology literature on depression - and
just 400 on joy. But 21st-century psychology, he predicted, "will become
a science of human strength and of personal fulfillment."

Indeed, the psychological association's flagship journal starts the
year with a special issue co-edited by Dr. Seligman and devoted to optimism
and "positive psychology" - an idea, perhaps surprisingly, that has generated
controversy.

Perhaps no research finding quite lifts the spirits like the observation
that optimists live longer than pessimists. One reason may be that optimists
do a better job of staying out of harm's way. So concluded a recent study
drawing on records from a project begun eight decades ago involving 1,800
boys and girls in California.

By the 1990s, about half of the men and a third of the women in the
study had died. Those who gave optimistic answers to essay questions when
they were young lived an average of two years longer than did their pessimistic
counterparts.

Pessimistic people appeared more prone to accidents and violence, including
car wrecks, household mishaps, even homicide.

"From what I'm able to figure out, pessimistic people are in bad moods,"
said the lead author of the 1998 study, psychologist Dr. Christopher Peterson
of the University of Michigan.

"And when you're in a bad mood, you're more likely to do risky things,"
because you're distracted or downright reckless.

Other evidence that optimists live longer has been gathered by UCLA
psychologist Dr. Shelley Taylor and co-workers, who studied 78 men with
AIDS beginning in the late 1980s.

Those who indicated that they had a realistic view of their disease's
course died an average of nine months sooner than those who were more optimistic
about postponing the end. And the researchers say they ruled out other
reasons for the optimists' longer lives, such as less severe illness to
begin with.

Dr. Taylor argues that an optimistic frame of mind actually modulates
the nervous system in a way that bolsters immune-system defenses.

It might seem contrary to good sense that people benefit from unfounded
optimism. After all, distinguishing between reality and illusion is a touchstone
of sanity.

But some social scientists have generated controversy by reporting evidence
for what is probably the central paradox of positive thinking: Clinging
to the belief in a positive future against reasonable odds sometimes makes
it happen.

Naturally, that may often occur just because over-optimists keep trying
- a variation on the old saw that quitters never win. But there appears
to be more to it.

For instance, in a report published last year about men infected with
the AIDS virus, Dr. Taylor and co-workers found that the optimists had
remained symptom-free longer than had the pessimists, whose assessment
of their medical condition was actually more in line with clinical data.

Dr. Taylor, author of the 1989 book Positive Illusions, said researchers
know little about how such an "optimistic bias" might help the body's defenses.
The key, she said, is that such unrealism "isn't necessarily bad. It can
be wonderful."

This view has its critics. A false sense of security can be dangerous
when it comes to taking physical risks, says Dr. Neil Weinstein, a psychologist
at Rutgers University.

Epidemics of sexually transmitted diseases, for example, are fueled
in part by people who make overly optimistic assumptions about their sexual
partners.

"You can think of many instances in which people's underestimation of
risk can get them into serious trouble," Dr. Weinstein said.

But numerous studies show that optimists, far from protecting their
fragile vision of the world, confront trouble head-on.

In a 1993 study of women who had recently been given the diagnosis of
breast cancer, the women with an optimistic disposition were more likely
to acknowledge the seriousness of the disease. They experienced less distress
and took more active steps to cope with it.

"Pessimism was associated with denial and a giving-up response," said
Dr. Charles Carver of the University of Miami, who conducted the study
with Michael Scheier of Carnegie Mellon University and others.

"Optimism was associated with positively reframing the situation, with
women believing, 'This is not going to go away, so let me make the best
of it I can,' " Dr. Carver said.

Because experts believe that no less than half of one's optimistic tendency
is nurtured, research probes its roots in childhood experience.

A soon-to-be-published study co-written by Vanderbilt University psychologist
Dr. Judy Garber found that young adolescents often share their mothers'
outlook, evidently because they learn her style of interpreting events,
especially negative ones.

Children with what is known as a pessimistic explanatory style - they
blame errors on deep personal flaws and dismiss triumphs as lucky breaks
- were more likely to have been told their mistakes were caused by overarching
deficiencies in their makeup.

"If parents are negative, critical, blaming, then the child is going
to learn that's how to explain things in the world," Dr. Garber said.

At the same time, she and other researchers have clearly shown that
reality also matters. Children who endure hardship and tragedy, from sickness
to divorcing parents to a death in the family, are also prone to pessimistic
thinking.

If Dr. Seligman and others are correct, the consequences of pessimistic
thinking in childhood may be broader than is usually acknowledged. They
are studying the origins of optimism and pessimism with an eye toward reducing
what some have called the "epidemic of depression" among the young.

It remains to be seen, however, whether behavior experts will heed Dr.
Seligman's call for a "positive" psychology dedicated to better understanding
and even encouragement of virtues like altruism, wisdom, integrity and
leadership.