UFC 158 Statistical Matchup Analysis: St. Pierre vs. Diaz

One of the most memorable media calls of all-time has thrown fuel
onto the fire of the long-awaited showdown between reigning
Ultimate Fighting Championship welterweight titleholder
Georges
St. Pierre and former Strikeforce
champion Nick Diaz. The
contrasting personalities that verbally sparred on the
teleconference foreshadow clear stylistic differences between the
two highly skilled and physically fit fighters. The incumbent is a
tireless technician who excels across the board in skill metrics --
a true mixed martial artist. The challenger is a bold and dangerous
striker-grappler, whose brawler mentality belies a sophisticated,
multi-pronged attack. The fight for which fans have been calling
for years will finally go down at UFC
158 on Saturday at the Bell Centre in Montreal. It is safe to
say the local fans in the arena will be biased, but with the help
of some diagnostic analysis of the two fighters, we will be armed
with the facts.

Between their performances in the UFC, Strikeforce and EliteXC,
there were almost 30,000 data points through which to sift. Here is
what those numbers tell us:

Starting at the beginning of the Tale of Tape, we see two fighters
in the range of their physical peaks, with not much of an age
difference. Though St. Pierre has a slightly longer reach, but Diaz
counters by being a natural left-hander. Over the years, however,
St. Pierre has effectively learned to switch stances, depending on
the opponent and strategy. Though slightly younger, Diaz has the
longer and more diverse fighting career, including a win in the
boxing ring in 2005.

The biggest differentials here are Diaz’s finish rate and layoff.
Diaz is a finisher, by strikes or submission; he is a dangerous
competitor who hates hearing the judges’ scorecards as much as UFC
President Dana White. However, some may argue that the quality of
his opponents has been lower than St. Pierre’s, given that more of
Diaz’s career was spent in other promotions. Perhaps his finishing
instinct will be less effective at the highest levels of the fight
game.

In contrast to his last fight, St. Pierre is now the more current
competitor after defeating Carlos
Condit less than four months ago. Diaz, on the other hand, is
coming off of a loss and a suspension that has kept him out of
competition since his own five-round fight with Condit way back in
early February 2012, more than one year ago. Conditioning does not
appear to be a problem for Diaz, however, as he competes in
endurance sports recreationally and has been highly motivated
training for this fight. Still, it does raise questions about how
long it will take for him to get comfortable again in the cage. In
his prior fight with Condit, Diaz struggled with his opponent’s
long-range fighting style and was only successful closing the
distance late in the bout. Against St. Pierre, he will need to
figure out a game plan quickly in order to avoid succumbing to the
champion’s notoriously methodical, bell-to-bell style.

Regardless of where this fight goes, there are reasons to be
interested in how they match up. With that said, these two will
begin the fight standing across from each other, so I will start
with the striking statistics.

Unsurprisingly, both fighters have great technical skills, and,
offensively, they have similar profiles. They both utilize the jab
effectively. Each fighter throws more jabs than power strikes and
does so with very high accuracy. They also both have knockdown
power, higher than the welterweight average, logging eight
knockdowns apiece in the fights analyzed. Punch-for-punch, St.
Pierre’s is higher. Their power strikes land with good accuracy,
though again St. Pierre has an edge. The widest differentials here
are Diaz’s pace and St. Pierre’s defense.

In prior fights, Diaz has controlled the cage, using his dangerous
“Stockton Slap” in high volume. He generally outpaces his opponents
in standup striking by about 50 percent, though he was unable to do
so in his recent fight against Condit. Overall, Diaz’s pace of
significant strike attempts is the highest of any fighter on the
card. While he is accustomed to dictating the pace of fights, St.
Pierre’s technical and controlling style is the perfect foil to
Diaz’s volume.

On the flipside, St. Pierre may match his opponents in pace, but
between his own high accuracy and his opponents’ poor rate of
landing strikes against him, the champion gets the better of
standup exchanges in the long run. His head striking defense is
actually quite amazing when put in context: St. Pierre continually
faces the best welterweights in the world, and, yet, they cannot
land strikes at even half the average rate of accuracy for the
division. Diaz’s power head striking defense is slightly above
average, but his jab defense indicates some willingness to eat a
few extra shots. Fortunately for Diaz, the numbers show he is much
less likely to be knocked down than the champion per strike landed,
which again complicates the balance of power.

In terms of varying the standup attack, St. Pierre will be more
likely to work the body and legs, while Diaz focuses primarily on
boxing and head strikes. St. Pierre’s standup will be more varied,
and, as is always the case with a disciplined fighter, the strikes
and combinations will often serve as setups for more dangerous or
strategically important attacks. Diaz, in contrast, tends to wade
forward, eating some combinations but stalking opponents with a
barrage of punches almost exclusively to the head. Only two percent
of Diaz’s standup strikes are leg kicks, the lowest of any fighter
on the UFC 158 main card. These tradeoffs will certainly make for
an interesting first few exchanges. Even so, let us not overlook
where this fight might end up going, and that is to the floor.

The defending champion’s wrestling is one of the most effective
weapons in the UFC, and he attempts takedowns at a rapid clip. His
78 percent takedown success rate has resulted in 75 takedowns
landed, which puts him atop both FightMetric UFC career records
lists. While Diaz has historically attempted takedowns almost as
often, his success rate is much lower. In fact it is one of the
only metrics in which he is below average for the division. GSP
also has the edge in takedown defense over Diaz, so the numbers
give the edge to the champion if he wants to fight on the
ground.

Once on the ground, each fighter has been successful in prior
fights. Both vastly out-strike their opponents, attempt submissions
at similar rates and have good submission defense. While Diaz’s
submission game may be more honed than St. Pierre’s, it is not as
if the champion has not fought inside the guard of dangerous
Brazilian jiu-jitsu practitioners before. This could end up being
the key to the fight: St. Pierre’s ability to put Diaz on his back
and do damage without exposing his neck or arm. Diaz taking top
control does not look as likely but would certainly make for an
unexpected twist to the plot.

The story here is that GSP is more likely to get ground control,
and once there, he can effectively work ground-and-pound while
avoiding submission attempts. Given that Diaz is a dangerous
striker, this may be a sound strategy for the incumbent champion,
but it is not without risk. Catching Diaz in a submission seems
unlikely, but St. Pierre has the stamina to work on the ground for
five full rounds if he needs to. There will be a delicate balance
for St. Pierre to maintain position and control while still
mounting an offense and minimizing openings for his opponent. If
Diaz cannot defend the inevitable takedowns, he will undoubtedly
become more and more frustrated and desperate as the fight goes on.
His likelihood of securing a submission will also decline with
time, as fatigue and sweat begins to affect him, so the first
rounds of match will be critical.

The Final Word:

The current betting line favors the champ at -500, implying an 83
percent probability of victory based on that market price. That is
a bit higher than St. Pierre’s last line of -350 against Condit,
presumably because the questions about his rehab and layoff have
now been answered. That fight also saw the biggest threat of defeat
that we have seen for the champion since he began his current
winning streak back in 2007. The head kick that almost ended GSP’s
latest reign added to the one blemish on the St. Pierre stat line:
knockdown resiliency.

While he is elusive to the point where most opponents never connect
with a clean shot, St. Pierre’s likelihood of being knocked down
with a landed power head strike is multiples higher than the same
value for Diaz, who has demonstrated a solid chin in recent years.
Diaz’s closest recent knockout scare came against the powerful
striker Paul Daley,
just before Diaz was able to knock out the Brit with strikes of his
own. While we see clear advantages for the champion to control the
fight on the ground, the greatest threat to him will be Diaz’s
boxing.

What do you think? Any particular stats you think reveal the key
difference in this matchup? Who wins and how? I will be back next
month to run the numbers on “Ultimate Fighter” coaches Jon Jones and
Chael
Sonnen, as they stop playing nice and fight at UFC 159. Let the
lyrical Sonnenisms begin.

Note: Raw data for the analysis was provided by, and in
partnership with FightMetric. All analysis was
performed by Reed Kuhn. Reed Kuhn, Fightnomics, FightMetric and
Sherdog.com assume no responsibility for bets placed on fights,
financial or otherwise.

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