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The price is already so far under the offer, I'm not sure how much it would drop further without it. But it's certainly possible.

No, I'm not buying CSIQ at this time, because there's no action in it. The offer has been on the table for months, with no further news. And company developments towards improving profits also seem to be glacial at best. So while I do expect a long-term turnaround, I don't see short-term catalysts. I've switched my investing strategy for solar from buy-and-hold, which got me absolutely NOTHING over the long term (I lost all my boom gains again during the busts) to quite active short-term trading in stocks that display a fair amount of volatility. Currently, those are DQ, ENPH, and RUN.

But if I had a longer-term horizon for new money, yes, I think CSIQ is a good buy here.

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My positions were all bought a long time ago, at much higher prices (in the 30s). The CEO obviously thinks eventually we'll get back there, else he wouldn't want to buy the company on the (long-term) cheap.

I've held a long time--I'm willing to hold longer. So I hope that when the offer is presented to the Board, the company fundamentals will show a brighter future ahead, and they'll reject it.

Or maybe Qu won't be able to come up with the money and won't be able to tender his offer. If he's serious, why hasn't he done so yet?

So much, though, for CSIQ being "best of breed," as many of us thought so long ago.

Regarding best of breed. CSIQ has for long placed a big bet on panelizing GCL wafers. Now LONGi might win over the old no 1 GCL. The wafer is the base for panel performance and cost. CSIQ has in some sense made the smart move to take the saws more in-house but leaving the ingot (the multi vs mono bet) outsourced. This should mitigate their technology risk of the intimate GCL partnership a bit. If you compare to JKS and JASO they never went all in on multi the way TSL and CSIQ did. CSIQ were smart though to outsource the bet through partnerships, which should make them more adaptable to PV world changes. Watch GCL vs LONGi success to understand how to bet on c-Si panel brands.

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GCL revises first half 2018 earnings. 30.2M Yuan same as last year. They indicate they have shifted to 50% overseas business up from 14%.

http://guangfu.bjx.com.cn/news/20180712/912269.shtml

On the evening of July 11, GCL Integratedreleased the 2018 semi-annual performance forecast amendment announcement, which revised the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies from January to June 2018 to the profit of 2041. Ten thousand yuan to 30.22 million yuan, basically the same as the same period of the previous year. Prior to April 28, GCL Integrated had expected net profit for the first half of the year to be -10,000 yuan to 10,000 yuan.

The sales ratio in overseas markets has rapidly increased from 14% in the first half of 2017 to the current 50%.

BNEF has recently said after the China policy changes that it expected PV module prices to fall 34%. What kind of solar module price declines are you expecting?

"One thing I would like to clarify is that with or without the China policy changes, our forecast for this year’s prices was a decline. For example at the start of the [module] prices would be around US$0.36/W and were expected to decline to say US$0.33/W or US$0.32/W. This was expected due to cost reductions, technology etc…

But people have tried to say that due to the China policy changes the prices would decline by so much. What will be interesting to watch is what will be the actual impact on prices, due only to the China policy change. From my perspective, I think the China policy change will make a 15% to 18% difference to pricing by year-end.

BNEF has recently said after the China policy changes that it expected PV module prices to fall 34%. What kind of solar module price declines are you expecting?

"One thing I would like to clarify is that with or without the China policy changes, our forecast for this year’s prices was a decline. For example at the start of the [module] prices would be around US$0.36/W and were expected to decline to say US$0.33/W or US$0.32/W. This was expected due to cost reductions, technology etc…

But people have tried to say that due to the China policy changes the prices would decline by so much. What will be interesting to watch is what will be the actual impact on prices, due only to the China policy change. From my perspective, I think the China policy change will make a 15% to 18% difference to pricing by year-end.

1 / (1 - 15%) = 18%

1 / (1 - 18%) = 22%

So what Trina is saying is that technology progress would enable cost improvements supporting a 10% price decline during 2018 at retained GM. And then the China policy change will take around 20 percentage point of that GM. Essentially a 18-22% GM company would be willing to give up its GM to maintain sales but not more.

To me this sounds reasonable since it might be a prolonged supply-demand imbalance trough. The alternative is to run at cash cost instead (negative GM), i.e. to not retain the cash flow from the depreciation cost (at 0% GM) to cover interest expenses and hopefully some OPEX.

Of course Trina is sending a message in the details to other big players on where the price floor should be. Trina management is known for its deep knowledge and foresight in all aspects of this industry (earning it representation in industry organisations etc.).

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So what Trina is saying is that technology progress would enable cost improvements supporting a 10% price decline during 2018 at retained GM. And then the China policy change will take around 20 percentage point of that GM. Essentially a 18-22% GM company would be willing to give up its GM to maintain sales but not more.

To me this sounds reasonable since it might be a prolonged supply-demand imbalance trough. The alternative is to run at cash cost instead (negative GM), i.e. to not retain the cash flow from the depreciation cost (at 0% GM) to cover interest expenses and hopefully some OPEX.

Of course Trina is sending a message in the details to other big players on where the price floor should be. Trina management is known for its deep knowledge and foresight in all aspects of this industry (earning it representation in industry organisations etc.).

They have set a blended price target in the $0.26-$0.28 price range based on a 15-17% further price erosion from the $0.32-$0.33 ASP target the had forecast originally. That is the year end pricing. It looks based on a 30/70 blending of MonoPerc/PolyPerc that price range is close to where the ASP ranges are today.

In 2019, I might gather another 5-10% price decline as they shift more to 50/50 or 60/40 MonoPerc/PolyPerc.

A 5% further decline would place average PolyPerc at $0.24 and average MonoPerc at $0.28 for a blended ASP of $0.26. Currently Mono Perc in China is $0.286 average with a low of $0.27 while the ROW is $0.04 higher. Poly would have a slight ASP decline from todays lows.

A 10% decline in 2019 would then drive the blended ASP to $0.2475 by the end of the year. That would place pricing at .265/.235 MonoPerc/PolyPerc.

If you look at the original target year end ASP of $0.32 with an 18% GM, their cost to manufacture was going to be $0.2816. That cost is above either a 5% or a 10% price decline ASP for year end 2019. To mantain 18% GM on the $0.27 year end 2018, the blended cost at $0.23. With a $0.10 module processing cost and current Perc Cell prices, that $0.23 comes in around $0.235. This is a $0.035 gross per watt. Currently no company shipping globally has an average Opex+Interest below $0.04/watt.

Basically this confirms that they will likely have an ASP above cash cost + depreciation.

China's solar sector has been growing rapidly after local governments commissioned hundreds of new projects to meet the country's aggressive renewable energy targets.

But the state planning agency said in June that it would cut subsidies for new projects and cap capacity additions at 30 gigawatts (GW) for this year, down from a record 53 GW in 2017, as it tried to "optimize" the pace of construction amid overcapacity fears.

Despite the policy adjustments, manufacturers continued to ramp up production in the first half of 2018, even though total installed generation capacity remained unchanged compared to the same period of last year, China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA) Vice-Chairman Wang Bohua said.

"The solar power sector should strengthen self-discipline whether domestically or overseas, and it should refrain from false propaganda and from price-gouging cut-throat competition," Wang told an industry conference.

He said the production of silicon wafers - a key solar component - rose 39 percent year-on-year to 50 GW in the first half, with solar module output rising to 39 GW, up 22 percent.

BEIJING (Reuters) - Shenzhen Energy Group Co Ltd (000027.SZ) said on Wednesday it has ditched a plan to buy three U.S. solar power stations after failing to get approval from a U.S. government panel amid growing trade tensions between the world’s top two economies.