Smartphones, Tablets Help Scientists Improve Storm Forecasts

The next advance in weather forecasting may not come from a new satellite or supercomputer but from a device in your pocket. University of Washington atmospheric scientists are using pressure sensors included in the newest smartphones to develop better weather forecasting techniques.

"With this approach we could potentially have tens or hundreds of
thousands of additional surface pressure observations, which could significantly
improve short-term weather forecasts," said Cliff Mass, a UW professor of
atmospheric sciences.

Owners of certain new Android smartphones and tablet computers can now
download the PressureNet app, which measures atmospheric pressure and provides
the data to UW researchers.

When some smartphone manufacturers recently added pressure sensors, to
estimate the phone's elevation and help pinpoint its location, Mass saw an
opportunity to enhance weather prediction. In the autumn he approached
Cumulonimbus, a Canadian app company that developed a barometer application for
smartphones that collects all the data and shares it back with users.

The PressureNet app this week collected about 4,000 observations per hour,
with users clustered in the northeastern United States and around some major
cities.

"We need more density," Mass said. "Right now it's a matter of
getting more people to contribute."

Atmospheric pressure is the weight of the air above, and includes information
about what is happening as air masses collide. Precise tracking of pressure
readings and pressure changes could help weather forecasters to pinpoint exactly
where and when a major storm will strike.

Mass is particularly interested in the center of the country, which is prone
to severe storms but includes fewer weather observation stations.

"Thunderstorms are one of the areas of weakest skill for
forecasting," Mass said. "I think thunderstorms in the middle part of
the country could potentially be the biggest positive for this approach. They
are relatively small-scale, they develop over a few hours, they can be severe
and can affect people significantly."

Tracking storms a few hours out could help people better protect themselves
and their property. In the Seattle area, the tool could improve short-term
forecasts for wind and rain.

"I think this could be one of the next major revolutions in weather
forecasting, really enhancing our ability to forecast at zero to four
hours," Mass said.

Cumulonimbus updated the app's privacy settings last week so users could
allow access to the data by scientific researchers. Since then, the UW group has
been uploading the pressure data each hour and preparing it for use in weather
forecasting models. The data will soon be available to all researchers who want
to incorporate it in weather-prediction tools.

A project begun in 2010 by Mass and Gregory Hakim, a UW professor of
atmospheric sciences, has explored ways to improve weather forecasts by taking
advantage of surface pressure measurements. The current network of U.S. weather
stations offers about one thousand air-pressure readings. Adding observations
collected by small-scale weather networks and hobbyists, the UW team found,
improves the forecasts. A weather station in every pocket would offer an
unprecedented wealth of data.

A recent blog post by Mass explains more about the UW group's approach. Luke
Madaus, a UW graduate student in atmospheric sciences, will load the smartphone
data into a weather-forecasting system. At first the tool will use only
stationary data points, but eventually it may include data from devices in
motion.

Building the system will take a few months, Mass said. By this summer's
thunderstorm season he hopes the UW team will be using smartphone data to
forecast storms and compare their results against traditional forecasts.

If the technique is successful, the researchers hope to supply it to the
National Weather Service and the weather bureaus of other countries.

The technique could be particularly useful, Mass noted, in countries that
have little weather-forecasting infrastructure but where smartphones are
becoming more common.

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