LANCE MAN TO BEAT

BONNIE DESIMONE; Chicago TribuneTHE HARTFORD COURANT

Whether it was a Fourth of July gesture or a sincere statement, French cyclist Richard Virenque's Tour de France prediction was a stunner.

Virenque said Americans could sweep the top three places in cycling's premier event, naming three-time defending champion Lance Armstrong and Armstrong's former U.S. Postal teammates Tyler Hamilton and Levi Leipheimer as favorites to occupy the podium in Paris.

Armstrong called Virenque's comments a compliment but was quick to issue a caution about the trio's prospects for the race, which starts today in Luxembourg.

"There are a lot of guys in the race who want to be on the podium," Armstrong said. "It's very competitive. I'm not guaranteed to be at the front. There could be somebody in front of me. There could be 10 guys in front of me. That's why I still get nervous before the Tour de France. That's why I prepare and train so hard. The day you're not nervous is the day you lose."

Hamilton, now a co-leader for the Denmark-based CSC Tiscali team, demurred even more.

"That would be something, but I think that would be a very difficult task for all three," said Hamilton, a Massachusetts native who was one of Armstrong's chief support riders the past three years.

Hamilton finished second in last month's Tour of Italy despite riding the last two weeks with a hairline fracture and torn tendon in a shoulder. Leipheimer, now riding for the Dutch team Rabobank, finished third in the Tour of Spain in September.

"It's not like Levi came out of the blue," Hamilton said of Leipheimer, who left Montana to begin racing in Europe as a teenager. "All the Americans you see doing well have really paid their dues."

In the absence of previous Tour winners and Armstrong foils Marco Pantani of Italy and Jan Ullrich of Germany, most observers expect Armstrong to win his fourth straight Tour.

But Armstrong and others expect strong performances from Spanish teams ONCE and Kelme, both deep with climbers and overall talent.

Other teams, such as Germany's Telekom, will build strategy around showcasing their sprinters -- but that means they might not be as willing to help Postal chase down early breakaways.

The jeopardy to Armstrong would come if a rider with climbing ability got into one of those breakaways, was well-positioned midway through the race and managed to hold his own with the champion in the mountains. Postal, which features three new riders, could find itself working harder than ever early to prevent that from happening, sapping the team's energy.

Armstrong also needs a continuation of his good fortune over the last three years, when he has been unimpeded by major crashes, equipment problems or illness.

The 21-team peloton will cover about 2,046 miles in 20 stages over 22 days. The Tour heads west to Brittany, south along the Atlantic coast, east through the Pyrenees and north over the Alps.

This year the mountain stages have been pushed a few days later and the second individual time trial one day later, to the eve of the largely ceremonial July 28 finish in Paris.