The Polling Report for October 17, 2018

A new College Reaction survey finds that 50% of college students say they’ll “definitely” vote this year. That includes 57% of Democrats and 40% of Republicans.

Axios: “If true, that kind of turnout could help Democrats, since Republican students are more lukewarm about whether they’ll vote. But in reality, young voters aren’t exactly known for rushing to the polls in midterm elections. It would take a sharp break with recent history for that to become a reality.”

The Washington Post/ABC poll released Sunday suggests it’s true. Though midterm voter enthusiasm is up almost across most segments compared to 2014, it is absolutely surging among the demographics most inclined to send Trump and the GOP a message.

Democratic certainty to vote is up 18 points, independent certainty is up 13 points, and Republican certainty is up just 4 points. Though not all the “certain” people will actually vote, the varying intentions among these groups speak volumes. In addition, the Post writes:

Certainty to vote is up 32 points among women younger than 40, compared with 2014. Among men and women ages 18 to 29, it has risen 17 points. Among nonwhite registered voters, 72 percent are now certain to vote, up from 48 percent in Post-ABC polling in October 2014.

A new Emerson College poll in Nevada finds that Sen. Dean Heller (R-NV) holds a 7-point lead against challenger Jacky Rosen (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 48% to 41% among likely voters. For comparison, the RealClearPolitics polling average shows Heller ahead by 1.7%.

In states where the Latino population is growing quickly, pollsters don't do a great job predicting their voting behavior. That's one reason why midterm forecasts in these three states could be wrong.https://t.co/h1Y6uAlTiN

A new Greenberg Research poll finds there’s now 12-point gap in support for the Republican tax law and that a majority of American voters oppose the law.

While Democrats have remained firmly opposed to the law, GOP support has also faded by 7 points since April. But the biggest shift is among independent voters who have swung 19 points from barely supportive to firmly opposed.

These numbers confirm that the GOP’s sole legislative accomplishment is now deeply unpopular. The question now is whether Democrats will be able to use the issue against Republicans in key districts around the country. An accompanying memo advises Democrats that “embracing the public’s anger with other leaders’ out-of-touch portrayal of their economic lives genuinely shifts vote support toward Democratic candidates and increases turnout.”

Republicans currently hold an astonishing two-thirds of the governors’ mansions across the country. Democrats are fighting to change that in November. https://t.co/s703b3pSr0