Sunday, June 24, 2012

It’s June 24, the sun is shining, and the Indians
are in first place. Both Justin Masterson and Ubaldo Jimenez have been pitching
well, Pestano and Perez have been nailing down the 8th and 9th
innings, and the offense has, for the most part at least, been doing enough to
win. They certainly haven’t run away and hid with the division lead, but they’ve
avoided the “June swoon” that marked the beginning of the end of the playoff
hopes for the 2011 squad. They’re an even 10-10 this month with 9 games left,
enough to maintain a slim ½ game lead over the White Sox and 3.5 game lead over
the Tigers. So while the referees dominate the headlines during the NBA
playoffs, fans obsess over the Brandon Weeden experience in Browns OTA’s and
the raging debate over the #4 pick in the NBA draft continues, maybe just sit
back and appreciate what the Indians are doing this summer here on this Lazy
Sunday.

The 2012 MLB draft is in the books, and we finally
got a good look at how the new Collective Bargaining Agreement effected the
draft process, and how the Indians decided to attack it. The first round of the
draft offered more surprises than ever, as some teams took the best player
available, some took a player that was more signable than talented, and some
(like the Indians) seemed to split the difference. As of today, the Indians
have signed eight of their top ten picks, and 17 of 40 overall. Out of the commissioner’s
decreed bonus pool of $4,582,900, they’ve doled out $3,417,500. That leaves
$1,165,400 to sign their remaining two picks in the top 10, plus any bonus over
$100,000 for picks outside of the top 10. If the Indians go over that cap by
less than 5%, they pay a 75% tax on the overage. If they go over the cap by
more than 5%, they lose their first round pick next year. No one the Indians
selected is worth losing next year’s first round pick, so it would be a shock
if the team spent enough to suffer that penalty. So with that being said, let’s
take a look at the Indians top 10 picks in the draft, how they’ve spent their
bonus pool so far and what might still be to come before the July 13 signing
deadline.

The Indians first round pick was Texas A&M outfield
Tyler Naquin. This pick surprised many, including me as you can see when looking back at my draft preview article. I looked at a dozen players that I thought would be options for the Indians
with the 15th pick in the draft, and wrote not a word about Naquin.
He was selected a little earlier than most projections, but wasn’t a horrible
reach. He signed quickly for $1.75 million, which is $500k under the $2.25
million slot for the pick. With the draft pool now being a zero-sum affair,
it’s unfair to look at any pick in the top 10 in a vacuum, and you have to take
a more holistic look at the top 10 picks and their bonuses to see how a team
did in the draft. Naquin is a talented hitter with an elite arm and his bat
will play well in CF if he can handle the position defensively, something the
Indians scouts obviously think he can do. Naquin is already playing CF for the
Mahoning Valley Scrappers, the Indians affiliate in the short-season New
York-Penn League. In his 2 games with the Scrappers, he’s 3-8 with a double and
a stolen base. He’s a good player that the Indians were able to bring in under
slot and save money for overslot signings later in the draft, a good strategy
for bringing in the most talent possible in one draft with the new rules that
are in place.

The 2nd round pick Mitch Brown, a RHP out
of a Minnesota high school, signed for $800,000. That bonus was over the $639,700
slot for the pick, something the Indians needed to do to keep the prepster from
forgoing his professional career for college. Brown was selected with the 79th
overall pick, and he was a player who was rated as the 45th best in
the draft by ESPN’s Keith Law and 44th by Baseball America. His
fastball sits between 90-95 MPH, and he throws a cutter and curveball that
could both be plus pitches as he matures. He’s got an athletic frame at 6’2”,
210lbs, and has a clean, repeatable delivery and should have no problem
sticking in the starting rotation.

The Indians stuck with prep pitching in the 3rd
round, selecting Kieran Lovegrove out of Mission Viejo HS in California.
Lovegrove signed for an even $400,000, which is a little under the $432,700
slot recommendation. I actually thought it would take an overslot bonus to
bring Lovegrove into the fold, so that was a pleasant surprise. He’s a very
projectable 6’4”, 180lb righthander who already has above-average stuff. His
fastball sits in the 89-93 MPH range and touches 95. That velo should improve
as he fills out and adds strength to his frame. His best secondary pitch is a
slider with sharp, two-plane break that he uses to dominate righthanded
hitters. There are some kinks to work out in his delivery, as his stride is
considered to be a bit short and he doesn’t use his lower half as well as he
should, and if the Indians developmental staff can get those flaws ironed out,
his stuff should pick up even more. Lovegrove is a mature kid for his age, and co-founded
a charity for low-income youths who want to play baseball or softball, theGoing to Bat Foundation.He
was born in South Africa and came to the US when he was just 5, and actually
played cricket before baseball. Like Brown, he’ll likely not debut outside of
the complex leagues until next year, but is already out in Arizona working with
the Indians coaching staff. Lovegrove was the 110th overall pick,
and was Keith Law’s #46 player overall and Baseball America’s #131.

Sticking with high schoolers in the 4th
round, the Indians took OF D’Vone McClure out of Jacksonville HS in Arkansas.
McClure is one of the two top-10 selections who has yet to sign, and is likely
holding out for an overslot bonus. Slot for the pick is $314,700, and it may
well take more than that to sign him away from a full ride to play baseball for
the Razorbacks. He’s considered the top prep player in the state, and is a
toolsy guy that has a pretty high upside but is a ways away from reaching it.
He projects to have four above-average to plus tools
(power/throwing/fielding/running) down the road, and some scouts compare him
favorable to Austin Jackson. He’s a real boom or bust pick simply because he’s
so raw, but the potential upside is significant as a two-way impact player in
CF. He was ranked as the #93 player in the draft by Keith Law and #91 by
Baseball America, and the Indians snagged him with the 143rd overall
pick. Now all that’s left is to see if they can sign him.

After the first four picks, I really expected the
Indians to take a signable senior with their 5th round selection to
save some money and ensure that they could have enough scratch to sign their
first four picks. They stuck with upside though, and selected Western Nevada JC
pitcher Dylan Baker. Baker is a 6’3”, 215lb righthander who played his high
school ball in the baseball hotbed of Juneau, Alaska. He’s seen as a future
bullpen guy at this stage of his development because he only has two effective
pitches, but both of those pitches are plus. His fastball sits between 90-95
MPH and touches 97. His secondary pitch is a curveball that is a 12-6 hammer,
movement that is made even more dramatic coming from his high over the top arm
slot. He throws an occasional changeup, but it’s a pitch that will have to come
a long ways to be effective as a pro. If he learn to spin a slider or cutter to
give him a weapon to attack hitters laterally across the strike zone, he could
be an effective starting pitcher, possibly a #2 if the third pitch could be
even average. As it is though, he projects best as a backend bullpen arm who
could move quickly through the system. He signed for an even $200,000, slightly
under the $235,600 slot for the 173rd pick. Keith Law pegged him as
the #75 prospect in the draft, and Baseball America put him at #82 overall.

The 6th round brought the first real “signability”
pick of the draft for the Indians, as they reached down to Divison II West
Chester to select 2B Joe Wendle. Wendle was not ranked in BA’s top 500 before
the draft, and signed for a $10,000 bonus. That’s well under the $176,600 slot
for the pick, and will help the Indians sign some of the higher upside players
they selected. Still, Wendle did hit .399/.479/.768 with 12 HR in college, and
has the chance for an above-average hit tool down the road. He’s not a
throwaway pick, but a guy who went a few rounds earlier than he would have
under the old rules. Wendle was assigned straight to Mahoning Valley where he’s
appeared in two games so far, going 2-8 with an RBI, a walk and a run scored.

With the signable 6th rounder in the bag,
it was back to upside for the Indians in the 7th round when they
selected Calhoun, Georgia HS outfielder Josh Schubert with the 233rd
overall choice. Schubert signed for $250,000, which is $104,400 more than the
$145,600 recommended slot for the pick. He’s another raw, athletic, toolsy
outfielder out of a high school in SEC country similar to 4th round
pick McClure. He’s got a 6’4”, 215lb frame that produces plus raw power, and
should get even stronger as he fills out. He’s got a plus arm, and has future
RF written all over him although he was a CF in high school. His senior year,
he hit .447 with 6 HR and went 6-1 with a 2.68 ERA as a pitcher. He has
slightly above-average speed as it stands right now, but will likely end up as
no more than an average runner down the road. He hits from the right side, and
prior to the draft Baseball America rated him as the #151 prospect in the
country. He’s going to take some time to develop, but there’s a potential
power-hitting RF here down the road.

With their 8th round pick, the Indians
went back to pitching with their selection of prep righty Caleb Hamrick out of
Cedar Hill HS in Texas. He’s a 6-3, 225lb power pitcher who sits between 89-93
with his fastball. His main secondary offering is a sweeping slider that
flashes plus. Hamrick has yet to sign, and slot for the pick is $136,600. It
will almost certainly take more than that to bring him into the fold, and he
has a scholarship waiting to attend Dallas Baptist. The Indians have an
additional $714,700 sitting around under their bonus cap thanks to underslot
signings, so there’s room there to make him a competitive enough offer to have
him forgo that scholarship and begin his professional career now.

The Indians selected Arkansas State righty Jacob Lee
with their 9th round pick as another senior sign, and he obliged by
agreeing to a $2,500 bonus, saving the Indians $124,500 under slot. He works
between 89-91 with his fastball, and touches 93. It’s actually his 2nd
best pitch behind his plus curveball, which is already above average and could
be plus down the road. His third pitch is a changeup, but it lags behind both
the fastball and curveball. Lee was ranked as the #307 player in the country by
Baseball America, and was the #293 overall selection.

The 10th round pick was another senior,
RHP Josh Martin out of Samford. He signed quickly for $5,000, a nice $120,000
under slot. He went 12-1 with a 2.96 ERA his senior year, and is a 6’5”, 234lb
who touches 93 with his fastball. He actually reminds me a little of Zach
McAllister from what I’ve read about him, and although he was a cheap sign it
was hardly a throwaway pick.

Outside of the top 10 rounds, there are a few
unsigned players that might be worth bonuses over the $100,000 cap that the new
CBA mandates for selections 11-40. Their 26th round selection Justin
Garza is an intriguing arm who can pour in a fastball in the 91-95 MPH range
despite being just 5’10”, 160lbs. He has a four pitch mix that includes an
above average curveball as well as a slider and changeup. He attacks hitters He’d
been rising up draft boards late in the process on the strength of a good
senior year for Bonita HS in California, so much so that Keith Law ranked him
#100 and was BA’s #130 player in their final rankings. The Indians selected him
with the 803rd pick in the draft, and will almost certainly have to
pay him over $100k to sign him away from Cal St. Fullerton.

In the 33rd round, the Indians took
multi-sport athlete Cory Raley out of Uvalde HS in Texas. He’s a 6’2”, 185lb
shortstop who should have the defensive chops to stay at the position long
term. He has plus speed and below-average power, but does a nice job using the
whole field and sprays line drives all over the place. He’s an outstanding
athlete who rushed for 1,470 yards as a QB in Texas, scoring 20 TDs and is committed
to playing baseball for Texas A&M. He’s another one who will be tough to
sign away from his scholarship, as he was selected well below his overall
talent level; he was the #1013 selection in the draft while Baseball America
listed him as the #158 player available in the draft.

So that’s a quick look at the Indians 2012 draft with
signing day approaching. I’m not going to give the draft a grade or anything
like that because it is just way too early to make an educated assessment,
especially when I haven’t seen these guys play for myself and am just relying
on what ESPN, Baseball Prospectus and Baseball America have to say about them.
I’m really looking forward to following the new additions to the system as they
make their debuts in Arizona and Mahoning Valley, and really can’t wait to get
a look at them next spring in Goodyear. From 2008 through last year, the
Indians have put together four really solid draft classes; I don’t see any
reason for that to end here in 2012.

Posted by
Al Ciammaichella

3 comments:

Al thanks very much for the article...as someone who doesn't know or understand a huge amount about the draft I have found your pre, during and post coverage very informative. With regard to Cory Raley - how does a guy slip so far from his evaluation# to his actual selection#?

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