Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 241641
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2012
VALID 241700Z - 251200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN AND PARTS OF CNTRL
NV...EXTREME NWRN AZ...A SMALL PART OF EXTREME ERN CA...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN AZ...WRN AND CNTRL NM...A
SMALL PART OF EXTREME SWRN TX...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE MORNING FORECAST. FIRST CRITICAL AREA
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NV WILL SEE STRENGTHENING WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND HUMIDITY IN THE 10 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
MORNING MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME SMALL RELIEF FOR
SOUTHWESTERN AZ WITH AN INFLUX OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ON SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND HUMIDITY ACTUALLY ABOVE 30 PERCENT INTO THE AFTERNOON.
ALSO...SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST TO
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE.
OVERALL...FOR SECOND CRITICAL AREA CENTERED OVER EASTERN AZ/WRN
NM...THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITY ARE FORECAST
FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF AZ EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF
NM...IN THE VICINITY OF THE LARGE ON-GOING WILDFIRE COMPLEX IN WEST
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED AND HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO
10 TO 15 PERCENT WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S AND SOME LOW 90S.
WESTERN AND EVENTUALLY CENTRAL AZ WILL SEE SOME RELIEF LATE IN THE
DAY IN THE FORM OF HIGHER HUMIDITY...HOWEVER...OVER EASTERN AZ AND
CENTRAL/WESTERN NM...POOR HUMIDITY RECOVERY OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED.
..BOTHWELL.. 05/24/2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0339 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2012/
...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE TROUGH IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL COVER THE WRN/CNTRL
UNITED STATES. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE EJECTED NEWD
FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WHILE THE WRN
EXTENT OF THE LARGE TROUGH AMPLIFIES FROM THE PACIFIC NW TO CA AND
OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN. A BELT OF STRONG FLOW IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL EXIST WITHIN THE BROAD BASE OF THE LARGE
TROUGH.
...SRN AND PARTS OF CNTRL NV...EXTREME NWRN AZ...A SMALL PART OF
EXTREME ERN CA...
AS THE LARGE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER PARTS OF THE WRN STATES...STRONG
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERLAY THE REGION...AND SUPPORT SLY TO WLY
WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS REACHING 40 MPH AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DEEPENS. AND...WITH AN ANTECEDENT DRY AIR MASS...RH VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO FALL TO 10-14 PERCENT. THIS WILL OCCUR AS TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE 60S AND 70S ACROSS NRN/CNTRL SECTIONS OF THE CRITICAL
AREA TO THE 80S AND 90S ACROSS SRN SECTIONS. THE COMBINATION OF
THESE FACTORS IS FORECAST TO YIELD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
...ERN AZ...WRN AND CNTRL NM...A SMALL PART OF EXTREME SWRN TX...
PERSISTENTLY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW TRAILING SWWD/WSWWD FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SWLY WINDS OF
20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS REACHING 40 MPH. A CONTINUED DRY AIR MASS WILL
SUPPORT RH VALUES OF 8-14 PERCENT...WITH THE LOWEST OF THESE
READINGS FROM SERN AZ INTO SWRN/CNTRL NM AND EXTREME SWRN TX.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 70S ACROSS NRN
PARTS OF THE CRITICAL AREA TO THE 80S AND 90S ACROSS SRN PARTS OF
THE CRITICAL AREA. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS IS FORECAST TO
YIELD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
...SURROUNDING THE TWO CRITICAL AREAS FROM PARTS OF SERN CA AND NRN
NV TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
TO THE SW OF THE WRN CRITICAL AREA ACROSS PARTS OF SERN CA: DESPITE
THE PRESENCE OF AREAS OF CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES...CRITICALLY
STRONG SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS MAY NOT OCCUR ON ANY MORE THAN A
SPOTTY/BRIEF BASIS -- IN AREAS WHERE FUELS ARE AVAILABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE FIRES -- PROVIDED THE SPATIAL DISPLACEMENT OF
THIS AREA FROM THE STRONGER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW DURING PEAK HEATING.
TO THE N OF THE WRN CRITICAL AREA ACROSS NRN NV: RH VALUES ARE NOT
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO FALL BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ON ANY MORE
THAN A SPOTTY/BRIEF BASIS IN THE ABSENCE OF WARMER SFC TEMPERATURES.
BETWEEN THE WRN AND ERN CRITICAL AREAS FROM PARTS OF WRN AZ INTO
SWRN UT: AREAS OF STRONG WINDS COULD DEVELOP...THOUGH MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA COULD KEEP RH VALUES FROM
FALLING BELOW 15 PERCENT ON ANY MORE THAN A SPOTTY/BRIEF BASIS IN
MOST AREAS. WHILE CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES ARE RELATIVELY MORE
LIKELY IN SOME AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE AZ-UT BORDER...THE
ABSENCE OF STRONGER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW DURING PEAK HEATING IN THESE
AREAS MAY MITIGATE THE STRONG-WIND THREAT. ACCORDINGLY...THE TWO
CRITICAL AREAS ARE NOT BEING CONNECTED AT THIS TIME.
TO THE EAST OF THE ERN CRITICAL AREA ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS: SFC
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY WEAKER...AS THIS REGION
WILL BE DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE STRONGER LOW-TO-MID-LEVEL FLOW.
WITH ONLY MARGINALLY CRITICALLY STRONG WIND SPEEDS POSSIBLE...AND
WITH AREAS OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
WEEKS AND FUEL GREEN-UP...THE ERN CRITICAL AREA DOES NOT EXTEND
FARTHER EAST AT THIS TIME.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 241933
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0233 PM CDT THU MAY 24 2012
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SERN CA...SRN NV...SRN
UT...NRN AND ERN AZ...SWRN CO...WRN/CNTRL/SRN NM...SWRN TX...
MODELS CONTINUE HIGHLIGHTING THE PREVIOUS CRITICAL AREA AS HAVING
STRONG SWLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND VERY LOW
HUMIDITY IN THE 10 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY
BELOW 10 PERCENT FOR A FEW HOURS. NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
HAVE COORDINATED WITH A FEW OFFICES ABOUT THE FUELS FOR THE SEE TEXT
AREA WHICH IS EASTERN NM AND PARTS OF TX PANHANDLE. CONSENSUS IS
THAT FUELS ARE GENERALLY STILL GREEN WITH ONLY SOME DRYING ON-GOING
WITH CONTINUED DRY/GUSTY SWLY WINDS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SLY LOW LVL FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SWRN AZ WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY
OF 25 TO 35 PERCENT NEGATING THE NEED FOR A CRITICAL AREA ACROSS
SWRN AZ.
..BOTHWELL.. 05/24/2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0341 AM CDT THU MAY 24 2012/
...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG TROUGH IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL DIG SWD OVER THE WRN
STATES...WHILE AN EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW MOVES SSEWD ACROSS CA AND
EVENTUALLY EWD INTO NV LATE IN THE PERIOD. A ZONE OF STRONG FLOW IN
THE MID/UPPER LEVELS ACCOMPANYING THIS TROUGH WILL COVER PARTS OF
THE WRN STATES. AS THIS OCCURS...A SFC LOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
CNTRL GREAT BASIN. ELSEWHERE...A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...WHICH HAD EARLIER EJECTED FROM THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
STRONG TROUGH...WILL SHIFT ENEWD FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
INTO SRN CANADA...WITH RIDGING FORECAST TO OCCUR BETWEEN THE TWO
TROUGHS.
...FAR SERN CA...SRN NV...SRN UT...NRN AND ERN AZ...SWRN
CO...WRN/CNTRL/SRN NM...SWRN TX...
THE COMBINATION OF THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE STRENGTHENING GREAT BASIN SFC LOW AND THE ZONE OF STRONG
MID-LEVEL FLOW OVERLAYING THE REGION WILL SUPPORT SSWLY TO SWLY
WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS REACHING 40-50 MPH. RH VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO FALL TO 6-14 PERCENT...AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S
AND 80S ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL PARTS OF THE CRITICAL AREA...AND INTO
THE 90S ACROSS SRN PARTS OF THE CRITICAL AREA. THE LOWEST OF THE RH
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS SRN NM AND SWRN TX. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL SUPPORT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
THREAT. ALSO OF NOTE...ANY SINGLE-DIGIT RH VALUES ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO ALIGN WITH SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 20-25 MPH /I.E.
BELOW EXTREMELY CRITICAL WIND SPEED THRESHOLDS/ AND MAINLY OCCUR
ACROSS THE SERN PART OF THE CRITICAL AREA...WHICH WILL BE REMOVED
FROM THE COMPARATIVELY STRONGER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.
...SURROUNDING THE CRITICAL AREA FROM PARTS OF SERN CA/LOWER CO
RIVER VALLEY TOWARD THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
TO THE SW OF THE CRITICAL AREA ACROSS PARTS OF SERN CA INTO THE
LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AND SWRN AZ: AREAS OF STRONG WINDS COULD
DEVELOP...THOUGH MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA MAY
PREVENT RH VALUES FROM FALLING BELOW 15 PERCENT ON ANY MORE THAN A
SPOTTY/BRIEF BASIS. ACCORDINGLY...THIS AREA IS NOT INCLUDED IN
CRITICAL DESIGNATION AT THIS TIME...BUT MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY BE
INCLUDED IF RH VALUES TREND LOWER IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.
TO THE N OF THE CRITICAL AREA ACROSS PARTS OF NRN/CNTRL UT AND
NWRN/CNTRL CO: DESPITE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF STRONG WINDS...RH
VALUES ARE NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST TO FALL BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
ON ANY MORE THAN A SPOTTY/BRIEF BASIS IN THE ABSENCE OF WARMER SFC
TEMPERATURES.
TO THE EAST OF THE CRITICAL AREA ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS:
CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED TO THE WEST OF A
N-S-ORIENTED DRYLINE AND TO THE SOUTH OF A NWD-ADVANCING SFC FRONT.
COINCIDING WITH THESE RH VALUES...CRITICALLY STRONG WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE EXISTENCE OF AREAS OF ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS AND AREAS OF FUEL
GREEN-UP MAY MITIGATE THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT. ACCORDINGLY...THE ERN
BOUND OF THE CRITICAL AREA DOES NOT EXTEND FARTHER TO THE EAST AT
THIS TIME.
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...