2012-13 Dallas Mavericks season review: Will Dirk return?

A look at the 10 players to think about keeping for next season

Dallas Mavericks' O.J. Mayo (32) drives to the basket against Houston Rockets defenders Jeremy Lin, left, and James Harden (13) in the second half of an NBA basketball game Wednesday, March 6, 2013, in Dallas. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)

DALLAS - While they are not quite mathematically eliminated (they have a 1.5% chance of making the playoffs according to ESPN's playoff odds machine), the Dallas Mavericks' hopes of making the post-season are all but gone, and their streak of 12 straight post-season appearances is set to expire in a couple of weeks. That means that we won't be seeing Dirk Nowitzki in the playoffs for the first time since he was 21 (that was way back in 2000).

Dirk's off-season knee surgery is likely what did the Mavericks in this season. While their 4-1 start was encouraging, they were 12-15 by the time Nowitzki was back in uniform and and 13-20 by the time he was back in the starting line-up. Since January 5th, which is when Dirk made his first start of the season against the Hornets, the Mavs have gone 25-19, good for a 56.8% winning percentage; over the course of a full season, a 56.8% winning percentage nets 47 wins, which is likely what the 7th seed in the West will finish at this season.

That poor stretch without Nowitzki has put the Mavs in an incredibly tough predicament, and though they showed some terrific fight in March, going 11-5 with wins over the Nets, Rockets, Celtics, Clippers and Bulls and narrow losses to the Spurs and Thunder, their back-to-back losses against the Lakers (a competitor for that 8th seed) and Nuggets (who lost Danilo Gallinari in that game) last week sealed their fate.

I think this team can be proud of their resilient efforts this season. I never felt like this bunch was mailing things in and I think Carlisle did a pretty good job of keeping his team as competitive as possible during their darkest stretches. At the end of the day, Dirk's injury cost them valuable games that would have helped them in this playoff race. Because of that, I'm not one of pin this season as a failure for Dallas, even if they aren't going to the playoffs in the first time in forever. Several Mavs, many of whom were just signed this off-season, had to step out of their comfort zones in order to fill the gaps left by Dirk and it caught up to them after their decent start; to me, that's a solid excuse for missing out on the playoffs.

This season is all I am giving them a pass for, though, because another dry off-season in Dallas will earn Mark Cuban quite a bit of criticism for failing to rebuild his team after breaking up the defending champions in 2011. Until then, here's how I rank Dallas' top 10 players this season.

1. Dirk Nowitzki

Even though he missed over a quarter of the season, Dirk was still the best player for this Mavs' squad by a mile. It may have been his worst statistical season in over a decade (his 19.63 PER is his lowest since his first two years in the league), but Dirk's still been the focal of everything the Mavericks have done since he returned, and he's still a high level offensive player that can carry a team on that end of the floor. It will be tough to go through a post-season without Dirk. Even in the years in which the Mavs underachieved in the post-season, Nowitzki was still a joy to watch.

The most interesting part of this season for Nowitzki has been what he has said in the press. In January, a frustrated Nowitzki that was beginning to see the writing on the wall about the team's post-season future questioned the team's off-season moves and said that he hopes the Mavs' plans to build another contender no longer rely on the hope that another superstar will sign with the Mavs. In late February Dirk opened up about his knee. He said he had doubts about his ability to come back while he was rehabbing, but based on the way his body has responded, he believes he can play out the remaining two years on his contract and then re-up for a couple more years.

And then a few days ago Dirk told USA Today's Sam Amick that, though that 2011 title run has eliminated the need for him to go around chasing titles before he retires, that he would finish his career elsewhere if staying in Dallas meant another season or two of fighting for the eighth seed. Before you panic, Nowitzki did say that he would prefer to be a Mav for life, but you can certainly understand such a historically great player not wanting to end his career on a lottery team (he must be so jealous of Tim Duncan's ever present supporting cast).

It has clearly been a very introspective year for Nowitzki, who has reached the point of his career where he's grinding through the aches and pains that come with age in an attempt to grow his already impressive Hall-of-Fame resume. Dirk was not happy when the Mavs let Tyson Chandler walk after they won the title in 2011 - though he understood Cuban's reasoning behind the decision - and things certainly haven't gotten better since despite Cuban's best efforts to see hope to the fanbase.

I think there would be a beautiful symmetry if three of the pillars of the 2000's era retired after spending all of their careers with the same team (Kevin Garnett gets a pass because Minnesota was godawful), so I'm rooting for Dirk, Duncan and Kobe to finish their careers where they started them. That said, of those three, Nowitzki is the one in the least enticing position as far as going out on top goes. It'd be tough to see Nowitzki dawn a different jersey, but I wouldn't blame him if the outlook in Dallas isn't looking better by the time the trade deadline passes next season.

2. Vince Carter

I covered Vince's resurgent season with the Mavericks in detail in this column. It's tough to envision Carter winning the Sixth Man of the Year award, him playing for a lottery team and all, but he certainly should finish in the top five in the voting. He's been tremendous for Dallas this season and he's not someone I would be totally opposed to see the Mavs keep, with the caveat being that they improved their point guard position in the off-season so that Carter isn't your best crunch time ball-handler.

3. Shawn Marion

Marion is so underappreciated. With Dirk out, Marion's responsibilities ranged from guarding Carmelo Anthony one night to playing center for 20 minutes the next, all while helping provide some functionality to the offense with his smart off-ball movement and intuitive passing. Even at 34, Marion is still one of the game's better defensive players and he's handled every tough assignment given to him this season.

I was one that advocated the Mavs trading Marion at the deadline and I still hold that position. He does so many of the little things that help you win games, if "you" is a playoff caliber team in need of such a swingman to put them over the top. For a lottery team that has struggled mightily to put solid defensive personnel on the floor like the Mavs, Marion's value is indisputably lower. I would imagine that if Dallas finds themselves in a position remotely similar to this year near the deadline in 2014 that they will deal Marion, who has a $9 million expiring contract that contenders will be fighting over.

If Dallas can make some kind of return to the mid-tier in the Western Conference, though, then Marion is the kind of glue guy necessary to make the team complete. He's currently posting his best rebound rate since 2008 and his best assist rate ever, so Marion has yet to slow down. One way or another, Marion will be helping a playoff team next season.

4. O.J. Mayo

Mayo had such an intoxicating start to the season that it was tough to believe he'd finish the year with a sub-15 PER (15 is considered league average by the metric), but that is where we are headed. Mayo is at 14.51 PER right now despite posting a career highs in assist rate and true shooting percentage. The problem with Mayo's efficiency this season has been the turnovers. Mayo has had a couple of turnover prone seasons before, but none this bad. Mayo is turning the ball over on 12% of his possessions this season. The players that rank near Mayo in that category are either D-League caliber players (Garrett Temple, Will Barton, MarShon Brooks) or solid all-around players that make up for their turnovers by being extremely proficient in other areas (Manu Ginobili, Andre Iguodala, James Harden).

It's not that difficult to understand why Mayo has struggled to hang on to the ball this year. I mean, after rarely getting to handle the ball for a Memphis team that played games at a snail's pace, Mayo had a huge chunk of ball-handling duties this season for a team with one of the fastest paces in the league. The combination of his added responsibilities and tempo-reliant environment culminated in a dreadful season for Mayo. To make matters worse, Mayo's turnover issues were constantly evident in crunchtime. Mayo has played 70 minutes in the fival five minutes of a five point games this year and his turnover rate in those situations is 15.1%. In the last minute of a five point game, Mayo has turned the ball over on nearly a quarter of his possessions (24%).

Here is O.J. Mayo's season in a nutshell: In his first 20 games, he shot 53% from three and 48% from the field. In his past 10 games, Mayo is shooting 29% from three and 36.4% from the field. There have been enough flashes throughout the season to make the Mavs consider bringing Mayo back on a long-term deal, but there is also a lot of evidence to suggest Mayo isn't fit for a starting role, which is what he'd be asking the Mavs to pay him to do. The decision the Mavs make with Mayo this off-season will tell us a lot about their plans moving forward.

5. Brandan Wright

Is he the fifth most talented player on the Mavericks? Probably not, but for past two years, there have been few players in the NBA that I've been more impressed with than Wright. This NBA afterthought (an afterthought that is just 25, by the way) finally found his way after arriving in Rick Carlisle's lockerroom. Carlisle has carved out a perfect role for Wright, sticking him in the game as a rim protector for stretches while finding ways for the athletic big man to make an impact offensively by spreading the floor and allowing Wright to feast off of dribble drop offs and lobs. He's a classic minimalist that sticks to contributing in very specific areas and the result has been two straight seasons of 21+ PERs (21.66 last year and 21.77 this year). Though Wright is not a very dynamic player, he does what he is asked to do very effectively and he doesn't make mistakes, which makes him an extremely efficient player. I'd like to see Dallas keep him around to be their third or fourth big next season.

6. Darren Collison

In what was supposed to be a transformative season for the young point guard, Darren Collison suffered through one of the most confusing and disheartening seasons ever. Collison entered the year expecting to be Dallas' starting point guard for the whole season with a chance to improve leaps and bounds with Carlisle at the helm and earn himself a permanent role as the franchise's lead guard. Instead, what ensued was Collison being tugged in and out of the starting line-up throughout the season, being benched twice in favor of 38-year old Derek Fisher and 37-year old journeyman Mike James and not getting to play in several fourth quarters. While Collison has actually been solid offensively this season when operating Dallas' pick-and-roll heavy flow offense, his lack of attention to detail defensively and his tendency to get lost on that end made Carlisle turn to the more reliable veterans that would compete harder on that end of the floor.

Collison has been pretty rough defensively this year, so you can see where Carlisle is coming from, but now that we know the end result of this season is ping pong balls, I look back and think that Carlisle should have rode with the promising young player in hopes of baptizing him by fire. Of course, hindsight is always 20/20, and there's a chance that the method of punishment that Carlisle chose to use will be beneficial for Collison going forward. The question is whether or not Collison will be a Mav going forward. If Brandon Jennings is available this off-season, I'd say he won't be.

7. Chris Kaman

Much like the next guy on this list, I think Kaman could have done a bit more for Dallas this season. His offense was absolutely essential for the Mavs during the first quarter of the season when Dirk was out and he was combining his soft jumper with his great touch at the rim to score in double digits consistently in Dirk's absence. Kaman looked to have regained his offensive flow after mailing last year in because he didn't want to play for the Hornets. But ever since his fellow German seven footer returned to the line-up - that has to be a pretty exclusive club - Kaman has been in and out of the line-up with concussion issues (and some DNP-CD's) and is only averaging 16 minutes a game. He has not enjoyed his time in Dallas this year, at least it hasn't seemed that way, and it looks like Kaman's stay in Dallas will be a brief one.

8. Elton Brand

You can't really argue with acquiring Brand off amnesty waivers for such a cheap price and Brand did a decent enough job to pay off the investment. He hit his lifeline mid-range jumper at a 44% clip this season, giving the Mavericks a nice offensive weapon off the pick-and-pop game, he rebounded as well as he has in years and seemed like a great lockerroom presence. But then again, I think Brand could have a bigger role with this team; 22 minutes a night seems a bit low to me. Brand was a little lacking defensively after being a savant in Philadelphia, though, and the Mavs have had to enact a rest plan to keep him fresh this season, so perhaps the miles are catching up to Brand.

9. Jae Crowder

I thought Crowder had a great rookie season and the fact that he played much more than first rounder Jared Cunningham as a second round pick shows you a lot about his work ethic. Crowder seemed to grasp Dallas' defensive scheme well, he moved the ball when he was supposed to and he's shown the ability to knockdown outside shots at a somewhat decent clip. I think Crowder is going to be a very solid player for the Mavs over the next few seasons that can split time between either forward spot and take on some tough defensive assignments (especially if Dallas ends up trading Marion soon).

10. Mike James

While I think that Collison should have kept his starting job, I can acknowledge that Mike James actually played well this year. In 42 games, James had a +4.2 points per 100 possessions net rating, with the Mavs scoring at a much higher clip (108.3 per 100 possessions to 105.9) when he was on the floor. He did compete defensively much more attentively than Collison and sometimes simply knowing where to be and what the coach wants you to and actively employing those strategies is enough to earn his trust, even if you aren't that great at actually preventing the opposing player from scoring, and James did that.