>> Friday, January 06, 2017

Today's video has all of the details:

The short-range 12z models are rolling in, and I don't see any reason for any big forecast changes.

Warmer air aloft will try to work in with this system and cause some snow to mix in with sleet or even rain in some areas. I expect the Triad and the northern and western Charlotte metro, and probably Charlotte proper, to stay all or mostly snow. But near and southeast of a line from just SE of Charlotte to Albemarle to near Asheboro to near Raleigh, the threat of some mixing (which would reduce snow totals) is definitely there. It's a very fine line.

On the flip side, locations just NW of the mixing line are often the big winners regarding snow totals. So it's the dance you have to dance if you are hunting for the best snows.

In locations that remain all snow, a solid 6-10" looks likely, and there is definitely the chance some areas exceed 10". And as always, there will be some places the under-perform and only get a couple of inches.

PLEASE TAKE NOTE that it will be bitterly cold following the system. Please make preparations for a means to stay warm in the event you happen to lose power.

>> Thursday, January 05, 2017

>> Wednesday, January 04, 2017

Above is the video. Really challenging forecast still regarding snow potential. Frankly, there is way more disagreement between the various computer models than I would like to see at this range. A few differences I'm looking at:

* RPM and Canadian model are much quicker with the arrival of precip than most models.

* GFS remains further south with the system.

* European model generally the furthest north and strongest with the system.

* Individual ensemble members of GFS and European are generally boom or bust... either big snows or weak and next to nothing.

* GFS snow footprint has been trending slowly northward over the last several runs. Not big adjustments, but they are there. See below:

It is still too early in the game for me to mention specific accumulation ideas, but here's the idea from me at this point:

I think the European solution is about as far north as this can go, and I think there's a decent chance the GFS continues to slowly adjust north.

However, the weakening seen in the latest UKMET model (see video) gives me some pause, and there is still a chance this could wind up trending weaker, as some of those ensemble members I mentioned indicate.

If you want a decent system, the overall key is keeping this piece of energy rolling through the southern Plains as independent and intense as possible .