How Will Syria's Assad Fall?

By Elliott Abrams

A sectarian divide or an Alawite-led "palace coup" are two of the most likely ways he might be removed

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad speaks on Syrian state TV / Reuters

It is easy to say that with Qaddafi gone, the next vicious regime to
fall is that of Bashar al-Assad in Syria. 'Tis a consummation devoutly
to be wished, but realists and pessimists have rightly asked "how
exactly does that happen?"

That's a fair question, because the Assad regime has yet to crack and
none of the previous models--Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya--can work the same
way in Syria. In my view, there are two possibilities that head the
list.

One possibility is that the army will split, largely on sectarian lines. The New York Times reports today as follows:

There were reports that dozens of
soldiers, possibly encouraged by the rout in Libya of Col. Muammar
el-Qaddafi, had deserted their positions in a village near Homs, the
country's third-largest city, and also on the outskirts of the capital,
Damascus, to join the five-month-old popular uprising against Mr. Assad
and his Baath Party. Activists said that since the uprising started in
mid-March, most such desertions have taken place in the eastern tribal
area of Deir al-Zour, bordering Iraq; in the northwestern province of
Idlib; and in towns around Homs and Damascus....The Free Officers of
Syria, a group of soldiers and officers who left the army last month in
protest of the crackdown and say that they now represent defectors,
published an online statement saying that "large" defections were
reported in Harasta, another suburb of Damascus and that armed troops
loyal to the government were chasing those defectors.

There have been numerous other reports about defections in the Army (from Reuters,
for example) but it is difficult to assess whether they have yet
reached a significant size. If the demonstrations grow, I assume the
numbers of defectors will grow as Sunni troops refuse to shoot peaceful
and unarmed Sunni demonstrators.

But there is another possibility, that the Alawite "Establishment,"
civilian and military, will remove Bashar from power in a kind of
"palace coup." This would only happen, I believe, if the economic and
financial sanctions grow stronger and stronger and demonstrations
continue. Removing Bashar might then appear to the Alawite generals and
"business leaders" (i.e., Assad cronies) as the only way to settle
things down and end the rebellion.They could call for some sort of
government of national salvation, schedule elections, denounce Bashar,
and send a new foreign minister to negotiate an end to the sanctions.

I doubt the demonstrators would accept such a cosmetic change, and we
should reject it as well. It would mean the regime is beginning to
collapse, and it would be very much in the interest of the United States
for it to collapse entirely. We should not rescue it, nor any remnant
of it.

There are other possibilities: perhaps the Sunni and Christian
business community will turn against Assad if sanctions are tough
enough, and will help bring him down. Perhaps over time hundreds of
thousands will flee to Turkey, giving the Turks the incentive they need
to bring Bashar down. All these possibilities make it clear that the
pressure should be increased: more sanctions, more isolation, more
denunciations of regime violence. Meanwhile we should be reaching out
privately to the business community, Sunni, Christian, and Alawi, and to
the generals to say it is time to switch sides and prepare for the
post-Assad future. Change in Syria never had a chance of being a "velvet
revolution" because of the brutality of the Assad clan, but anything
the United States, the EU, and Arab allies can do to shorten the period
of violence and bring change faster will be a great favor to the people
of Syria.