NFL Draft

Piggybacking off my early Pac-12 projections for the 2017 NFL Draft, we’ll narrow the focus to Bay Area prospects.

Please note: The rankings below don’t include all the draft-eligible players in 2017, only those whom I believe — and this is wholly subjective, of course — are likely to apply for the draft or give it serious consideration.

For instance, Stanford DL Solomon Thomas is a top-tier prospects, but the upcoming season will only be his second of competition — he took a redshirt in ’14 — and he plays a position that requires more physical maturity than others. In my estimation, Thomas is not likely to make the jump next spring.

Also, you will notice a paucity of Cal players. Odds are, several Bears will emerge as draft prospects during the upcoming season. But at this point, it’s difficult to identify more than one or two from the pool of eligible players.

(Of the eight Bears who received all-conference/honorable mention recognition last season, only one returns: Offensive lineman Chris Borrayo, and he’s a mid-level prospect, at this point.)

Let’s start with a quick thought on the top story here in the Bay Area: Cal quarterback Jared Goff, as expected, went No. 1 to the Rams.

In the process, he became 1) the first Golden Bear to be the top overall pick since Steve Bartkowski in 1975 and 2) one of only two Bay Area players in the past three decades to be the first off the board.

The other was Stanford’s Andrew Luck, in 2012. And in both cases, the No. 1 pick comes with immense pressure because of the particular circumstances:

Luck’s task in Indianapolis: Revive a franchise and replace a legend, Peyton Manning.

Goff’s challenge with the Rams is equally momentous: He immediately becomes the face of a franchise that traded six picks to get him and oh-by-the-way just relocated to the No. 2 market in the country — a market that happens to be in need of a superstar after its most popular athlete recently retired.

If projections hold, Cal, Stanford and San Jose State prospects will be well represented in the NFL Draft, starting at the very top.

Sure, it’s possible the Rams traded six picks for the right to draft a quarterback from North Dakota State, but we’re of the opinion that Cal’s Jared Goff is the target.

(If it happens … once it happens … Goff will become the face of L.A. sports, now that it’s “Mamba out” in SoCal.)

As we’ve said and seen over the years — as recently as last year, when Stanford S Jordan Richards went in the second round to the Patriots — it only takes one team liking a particular player to detonate all presumptions. But it sure seems like Goff will be the only Cal, Stanford or San Jose State product selected Thursday in the first round. A few could go Friday (second and third) and then a handful should get scooped up Saturday (four through seven).

Quick note to start: Stanford opens spring practice today/Tuesday and will again have two sessions of two weeks. Cal and San Jose State get started next month.

Here’s an early version of chart published in Tuesday’s Mercury News and Bay Area News Group publications …

The Combine is underway, at least officially. The good stuff — if you are into the Combine — comes later this week. The event ends when NFL Network analysts run out of things to talk about, which is scheduled to happen Monday.

Cal, Stanford and San Jose State are sending 14 players, which is close to five percent of the total number of participants — it’s the strongest across-the-board representation for the region in years.

Here’s a Bay Area-specific version of my May 6 post on the top Pac-12 prospects for the 2016 draft, because it’s never too early to have some fun and because projections of this nature help identify the talent, and thus set the framework, for the upcoming season.

Stanford has dominated these rankings in past years with Cal struggling and SJSU lacking a pipeline of the NFL-caliber talent, but the talent gap appears to be closing.

Sure, the balance could tilt sharply to the Cardinal by next spring. But at this point, on paper, Stanford has fewer high- and mid-round prospects than in recent years, while Cal and SJSU have increased their supply.

The ranking is based on a combination of talent/potential and, for third- and fourth-year players, the likelihood that a particular prospect will enter the ’16 draft. Continue Reading →

With the 2015 draft behind us, let’s delve into the Hotline’s annual look-ahead for Pac-12 prospects.

Yes, the potential for error is high (although my ’15 projections were respectable). But if nothing else, this exercise provides a sense for the talent: which teams and which positions are loaded.

As we look to the ’16 draft …

* There is a noticeable lack of high-end talent. This time last year, the league had a bevy of potential top-10 and first-round picks. But that’s not the case looking out to the ’16 draft, especially at some of the coveted positions like offensive tackle, cornerback, even quarterback.

* Most of the top prospects play defense.

* Please keep in mind:

1. Many of the players listed below will be draft-eligible juniors and sophomores during the upcoming season but won’t necessarily turn pro.

2. Players not listed will undoubtedly transform into top prospects. (Have I missed some worthy names? Almost assuredly!)

3. This is not a projection of the best players in the conference. Rather, it’s a look at the available and potentially available players most likely to get selected early in the draft (i.e., top-three rounds).

Winner: Florida State. Produced the No. 1 pick (Jameis Winston), topped all schools with 11 draftees and set a record for most picks in a three-year span (29), surpassing the total set my Miami and USC.

Loser:Tampa PD.

Winner: SEC. After slow start — horror of horrors, it lagged the ACC and Pac-12 in the first round! — the conference rallied in rounds 2 through 7 to produce the most draftees on a raw and, more significantly, per-team basis:

Welcome to the first installment (out of at least five, maybe six or seven) of the Hotline’s early look at the 2015 Pac-12 football season.

The series will include an examination of non-conference schedules, projections for the all-conference team and order-of-finish in each division, plus a look at the most pressing questions for the offseason.

We’ll start by assessing the impact of NFL Draft decisions …

As you might recall (but probably don’t), the Hotline addressed the draft exodus at this time last year and noted the total number of defections wasn’t nearly as important to the league’s prospects as the who and the where.

The conference lost a whopping 25 early-entry players in Jan. ’14, but almost half were from teams that didn’t figure to contend for the division/conference/national title. (Cal alone was responsible for almost 20 percent of the departures.)

The return of the three big quarterbacks, Marcus Mariota, Brett Hundley and Sean Mannion, served to further mitigate the early-entry damage.