Grim Dems await huge House losses

The last TV ads have been cut. The final polls have been conducted. The end-of-campaign expenditures are being made.

Now, for Democratic consultants and campaign officials who have plotted and strategized for months to preserve the embattled House majority, there’s nothing left to do but sit and wait for the expected horrors of Election Day to unfold.

Story Continued Below

There is nearly uniform consensus among Democratic campaign professionals that the House is gone — the only question, it seems, is how many seats they will lose.

While few will say so on the record for fear of alienating party officials or depressing turnout, every one of nearly a dozen Democratic House consultants and political strategists surveyed expect a GOP majority to be elected Tuesday — the consensus was that Democrats would lose somewhere between 50 and 60 seats.

A senior party consultant who was on the low end with his predictions said the party would lose between 40 and 50 seats. On the high end, one Democratic consultant said losses could number around 70 seats.

All spoke to the grimness of the mood.

“It sucks,” said Dave Beattie, a Florida-based Democratic pollster who is working on a slate of competitive House races and who acknowledges that the lower congressional chamber is lost. “I’m resigned to the fact that it sucks.”

While there was optimistic talk within party circles early this month that the electoral environment was improving for the party, the operatives said those conversations don’t take place anymore.

“If some Democratic consultant told you they are feeling better, they must have dropped some heavy drugs,” said a senior pollster who is working for candidates in competitive races. “It’s hard.”

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee this week launched something of a last-ditch offensive to save some of its incumbents, purchasing airtime to defend endangered members like Iowa Rep. Dave Loebsack, Illinois Rep. Bill Foster and New Jersey Rep. John Adler — all of whom are highly vulnerable but whom party officials believe could ultimately prevail.

The committee also sought to shore up incumbents who until recently were not thought to be in electoral peril: Arizona Rep. Raul Grijalva, Iowa Rep. Bruce Braley and North Carolina Rep. Mike McIntyre.

Still, among those in the Democratic consulting class, there’s a gloomy acknowledgment that many of the incumbents the DCCC has spent millions of dollars to protect won’t be coming back to Congress.

“Everybody that is tied will lose, and everyone that is ahead by a few points will lose because of the GOP wave,” said one party media consultant who is involved in a wide array of House races. “There are going to be some surprises.”