Saturday, August 12, 2017

Korean Crisis Seen Opening a Way for New Trump-Putin Rapprochement

Paul
Goble

Staunton, August 11 – Short of war,
the largest fallout from the intensifying Korean crisis is likely to be a new
rapprochement between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, according to a Ukrainian
analyst, who suggests that under the cover of the threat of a nuclear conflict
the US president and his Kremlin counterpart may do a deal at Ukraine’s
expense.

Trump’s
second action is especially indicative. On the one hand, it highlights the
contempt of the current administration for the diplomatic service whose members
are viewed with distaste by many ordinary Americans who form the current
American president’s political base.

On
the other, Voloshin argues, it demonstrates that Trump has not given up on his
fundamental idea that partnership with Moscow is something that would be good
for the US and that he will use almost any development in the world to promote
that idea both within his administration and more generally.

In
almost any other circumstances, no American president would dare praise a Kremlin
leader for expelling US diplomats, but now, faced with the crisis in Korea, the
situation has changed. “If Russia is viewed by its opponents as a threat to
democracy and the existing world order, North Korea looks like a threat to the
very existence of the US.”

And
that creates a definite basis for expanding cooperation with Moscow as far as
Trump is concerned, the Ukrainian analyst says.

Russia’s
willingness to vote for a UN Security Council resolution imposing harsh
sanctions on North Korea shows that Moscow is quite open to this possibility.
More than that, this Russian vote “allows Trump to temporarily put off the
imposition of new anti-Russian sanctions.”

Moreover,
Voloshin continues, Moscow has shown itself willing to cooperate with the US in
Syria, and “this allows the Trump command to make the argument that partnership
with Moscow from a position of strength is more useful than the application of
force (including economic) to punish Russia for past sins.”

All
of this taken together, however, “doesn’t mean that a total rapprochement
between Moscow and Washington is possible,” at least anytime soon. Their
differences are too great for that, as one or the other would have to sacrifice
things that are the core values of these respective regimes.

But
it does mean that Trump and Putin will be looking for places where they can
make progress, and one of the most obvious is the pursuit of some kind of compromise
on Ukraine. That is all the more likely given European pressures for an accord
and given the Kremlin’s ostensible “flexibility” on such issues.

In
short, Ukraine faces a situation very different from what is policy makers
assume is the case. “Today there is no united front against Russia,” Voloshin
says. “Everyone is maneuvering and seeking points of contact. This by itself is
a serious test” for Kyiv, and one more way that the Korean crisis is affecting
outcomes in many other parts of the world.