August 9, 2018

Tuesday’s Election Results

in a hotly contested U.S. House of Representatives race in Ohio late on Tuesday, holding off a strong challenge in the reliably Republican district after a late show of support from President Donald Trump... Republican Troy Balderson led Democrat Danny O’Connor by about 1,700 votes with all precincts reporting.” (Reuters)

“What has to keep Democrats excited and Republican operatives and politicians worried is that all the indicators — election results, approval ratings, generic ballot polling, fundraising, resources —are pointing in the same direction.”

Bloomberg

The right is worried about the coming midterm elections.

“The Blue Wave is real. That much emerged from Tuesday’s primary election race in Ohio’s 12th congressional district... Republicans have one other ace up their sleeves: Nancy Pelosi... Making the 2018 midterms about stopping Pelosi will probably not, by itself, be enough for Republicans to hang onto power. But it will help — and right now, it looks like Republicans will need all the help they can get.”

Breitbart

“Even as Republicans have won these special elections, they have often underperformed in them... The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates 60 Republican-held House seats as ‘genuinely’ in play. Democrats need only to net 23 to capture the majority. Hillary Clinton won that many GOP districts in 2016.”

Washington Examiner

“Specials elections are, indeed, somewhat special. The Democrats can bring special attention to these races and pour large amounts of money into them. But Republicans can do the same... [At the same time] Trump will be hard pressed to be present in every contested district and state with a key Senate race, and certainly won’t be able to be [in] dozens of them in the two or three days just before the election.”

Power Line Blog

“This isn’t the result of some great new micro-targeting gizmo, or a jarring advertising campaign, even a particularly great crop of Democratic candidates. This is primarily driven by a Republican president who is in the headlines every single day and who finds some new way to jab and poke at voters who didn’t vote for him in 2016... Maybe some working-class whites are drifting over to the GOP, but a lot of suburban women are heading to the Democrats.”

National Review

Counterpoint: “In 2017 and 2018, so far, Republicans have won eight of the ten special House elections. And one of the two Democrat wins was an all-Democrat contest in California’s 34th... Having failed to beat the Republicans, the post-election media focuses on how close the race was, how near the Democrat came to a historic upset. But House special elections are typically very close as an unusual amount of national media attention and money from both parties floods a relatively small district.”

Western Journal

Some argue that “what might be called the Republican-establishment message is not generating countervailing enthusiasm within the Trump coalition.” Instead, the GOP should adopt a cultural message focused on curbing illegal immigration and pushing back against elites and media who paint such viewpoints as bigotry. “Which side is successful in determining what the elections are about will go a long way to determining who wins them.”