Unless you've got a really good history of stepping in front of speeding trains .... & surviving, I'd agree w/ part 2 of your post.

I've got too many scars trying to pick tops in momo stocks w/ significant short interest. Let the shorts be your friend .... and price action tell you when to get short. No matter when you get short, don't expect a smooth ride .... (take a look at the old TASR chart for a sample of short-fueled rallies...).