Friday, January 26, 2007

How to read western report: China's Net users send wrong message

Let me tell you some more about its points and you will have more understanding about China's internet.

1. China Daily, the country's official English-language newspaper, claimed Thursday that China would surpass the United States by 2010 , even though current growth rates of about 23 percent per year does not support that. In fact, Internet growth has slowed slightly since its peak in 2001 and 2002.First, Chinadaily said: That could be a bullish prediction. The United States now has about 210 million Internet users, according to industry estimates. A research report by JP Morgan earlier this month forecast China's Internet population could hit 190 million by 2010. Second, China's internet user number grew at 18.2%, 18.1% and 23.4% in 2004, 2005 and 2006. Let me set the average growth rate at 20% anually. In 2010, China's internet user numbers could be doubled. That means it could reach 270 million. Oh, that's about 90% of US population.

2. Beijing and Shanghai alone account for over 50 percent of the total number of users;This can only be faked number. The total population of Beijing and Shanghai is about 30 million. How the both cities have half of the Chinese netizens that is 137 million?

3. the Xizang Autonomous Region -- the official name for Tibet -- ranked last for Internet use, with only 160,000 Internet users, 0.1 percent of China's total. First, Tibet is one of the poorest provinces in China, and it is also remotedly located in mountainous area.Second, Tibet has a population of only 2.5 million. That means the internet penetration in Tibet is about 7%. It is not bad at all comparing with 10% of national average and considering Tibet's economical and geographical conditions.

4. 57 percent of users surveyed stated their monthly income was 1,500 renminbi ($193) or less (over 61 percent if you include users who said they had no income). That sounds to me like high school kids, college students, or young people in their first job.So what? young Chinese are often decisive in purchasing in their families. It is they who often make decision not their parents.

Think Again: India

The following came from the article on Foreign Policy website. The author, Barbara Crossette, reported for the New York Times on the killing of Sikhs in New Delhi in 1984 and was later the Times chief correspondent for South Asia 1988-1991 and bureau chief at the United Nations 1994-2001. This article speaks out something about India's situation.

“India and the United States are natural allies”

Not so fast. It was not until the collapse of its champion and friend, the Soviet Union, that Delhi saw reasons to improve ties dramatically with the United States. Recent mutual overtures to warm U.S.-Indian ties are still works in progress on both sides. Though the world’s most populous democracy seems to be increasingly in sync with free-market American thinking, India’s interests often conflict with those of the United States.

Consider India’s relationship with Iran. The energy-hungry subcontinent looks at Iran in the same way that the United States views Saudi Arabia. Iran and India reached a “strategic partnership” in 2003, cementing the “historical ties” between the two nations. India is now chafing at Western demands that it stop backing Iran’s right to develop its nuclear capacities. Despite a new American deal to share advanced nuclear technology with India, Delhi is likely to resist opening its own nuclear facilities to serious international inspection and remains steadfast in its refusal to sign major international arms-control agreements. The father of its clandestine nuclear bomb, A.P.J. Abdul Kalam, is now the country’s president.

“India is a responsible world power”

Not yet. India has a history of interference in the politics of its weaker South Asian neighbors. A rebellion in Pakistan split the country in two in 1971 with a lot of help from Delhi, whose army effectively created Bangladesh. Over a million people died in the bloody ethnic cleansing campaigns that followed. In the 1980s, Sri Lanka’s Tamil rebels started a vicious civil war from safe bases in India’s Tamil Nadu state, with generous assistance from Indian intelligence agencies. Sikkim, a little Tibetan Buddhist kingdom, disappeared altogether after a Machiavellian manipulation of its ethnic Nepali population by former Indian Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, who spent the better part of the 1970s and 1980s troublemaking in the region. Only recently, under former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee and current Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, have these activities been curtailed.

India has nevertheless projected a positive image in the world, largely because the country is far more successful than the United States at public diplomacy. India’s outstanding diplomatic corps and government officials are more focused on winning all-or-nothing support for India in the international arena than they are on confronting India’s shortcomings.

Impressive economic growth and a nuclear arsenal have made India a world power, and may earn it a permanent seat on the U.N. Security Council. The question remains, however, whether India’s voice and vote would do any more than echo the mantras of the Nonaligned Movement and the Group of 77. Last year, for instance, India supported Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez’s bid for a Security Council seat. India contributed 0.4 percent of the United Nations budget in 2006, less than Israel, about the same as Poland, only slightly more than Ireland, and one fifth of the dues paid by China. India, unlike the United States, does field many international peacekeepers. The Indian armed forces are superbly well trained, urbane, and effective. Within India, however, U.N. activity is always under close scrutiny. The U.N.’s international monitoring mission for Kashmir, one of the first to be established more than half a century ago, is forced to work almost entirely on the Pakistani side of the border.

“India will surpass China”

Perhaps, But at What?. India, which currently has a population of 1.1 billion people, will be the world’s most populous nation sometime in the next few decades. But that may be the only arena in which it overtakes China.

Both countries have large urban-rural gaps and other income and living standard disparities, but China is now well ahead of India on a number of key indicators. China ranks at number 81 of 177 countries on the latest United Nations Human Development Index (in the neighborhood of Armenia or Peru), while India is 126 (below Namibia and just ahead of Cambodia). In China, a person’s chance of dying before the age of 40 is just under 7 percent. In India it’s over 16 percent, higher than in Pakistan or Bangladesh. Eighty percent of Indians live on $2 a day or less, compared with about 46 percent of the Chinese. Almost half the children under 5 in India are malnourished, compared with 8 percent in China.

India’s democratic system prevents it from taking draconian measures, such as China’s one-child policy, to keep population growth in check. India’s population is growing at 1.38 percent a year, a figure that may look low until it is multiplied by more than 1 billion. India adds more than 15 million people a year to its population, nearly twice the population of Austria. Indian leaders are aware that a “youth bulge,” which demographers expect to level off by 2025, can be conducive to economic growth. But countries in this position need to, “broaden the opportunities for young people to develop their human capital and use it productively,” in the words of the World Bank’s World Development Report 2007. That’s the route to prosperity followed by Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea—and now China. The adult literacy rate in China is above 90 percent. In India, it’s 61 percent. About one quarter of primary-school-age Indian children are not in school. In China, the figure is practically zero.

“India is becoming a high-tech, middle-class nation”

Prove it. India’s vaunted middle class is still a distinct minority. In reality, the gap between rich and poor remains enormous. An Oxfam report in 2006 predicted that even if India met all the U.N.’s Millennium Development Goals by 2015, which is almost impossible, 500 million Indians would still have no access to basic sanitation. The World Bank has concluded that India may have many highly skilled professionals, scientists, and engineers, “but they represent only a fraction of the population.” The information technology sector in India, which accounts for just 4 percent of GDP, employs only 1 million people, and most come from predictable, higher-caste, private-school-educated, English-speaking families. Although some parts of the country are becoming world centers of research and development in technology, just 32 out of every 1,000 Indians have access to the Internet. That’s 3.2 percent of the population.

“India is a model of tolerance”

No. Human rights abuses and corruption of political power are far more prevalent in India than in other democracies. Indians can use the courts for redress, but the justice system is incredibly backlogged, and large numbers of abuses go unpunished. Worse yet, the Hindu caste system is hopelessly discriminatory. Poor people can be killed for offenses as petty as trespassing in a high-caste Brahmin temple or drawing water from an upper-caste well.

The treatment of most Indian women can be just as bad. Women are much more likely to be illiterate, earn one-third as much as men across the board, and die in the thousands annually as the victims of abusive spouses or in-laws. The same goes for religious minorities. In 1984, mobs in New Delhi, reacting to the assassination of Indira Gandhi, slaughtered around 3,000 Sikh men and boys. Witnesses identified Congress Party politicians directing some of the killings, yet none among them were ever convicted. In a more recent incident, 2,000 Muslims were killed in the state of Gujarat in 2002. As in the case of the Sikh massacres, where the army ultimately had to restore order, corrupt police forces in Gujarat stood aside and let the carnage go on.

This is to say nothing of Kashmir, whose people consider themselves ethnically and historically separate from India. Most Muslim Kashmiris have become united in their contempt for Indian rule. Over the last two decades, tens of thousands of people on all sides have died in Kashmir; thousands more have been arrested or “disappeared.” Human rights groups have decried abuses on both sides. But extrajudicial killings by the Indian military are common and well documented. It is a stinging indictment of democratic India.

Wednesday, January 24, 2007

India is Democracy? Devolpment at the Cost of the Poor

Democracy and development are the two words that are used often on India. But what you will think if you read this news?

India is trying hard on the facelift in some metro area, such as Mumbai, Kolkata and new Delhi where slum residents are a large part of their population. Look at the following cases in India, where is the rights of the poor?

In late 2004 or early 2005 in Mumbai, Slum demolitions in Mumbai have left tens of thousands of people without a home as the government tries to free up valuable space for development in Mumbai. Source.

In Kolkata, land has been bought from farmers for 10,000 to Rs 12,000 per acre and sold to builders for Rs 300,000 to Rs 400,000 per acre.Source.

Now in New Delhi, Earlier this month, bulldozers and riot police moved into the slum behind the colony of Shankar Gardens. The garbage-filled streets are home to 500 poor families who live without safe drinking water, proper sanitation or health services.It was early afternoon and most of the men in the slum, who work on construction sites, were out. Those who were around were given bottles of drink, so that they would relax. The local residents' association, which had long campaigned for the removal of the poor from their midst, came out with snacks.

By the time the authorities cleared a path through the slum, 200 huts made of bricks and galvanised steel were reduced to rubble. Puja had lost her home and her 12-day old baby son, killed in the demolition according to his parents.Source.

These even happened in metro areas. The worst thing is that many of them are even legal in India.

Tuesday, January 23, 2007

India's scientific talent pool much smaller than China's

Indians and many of India's propagandas often say that India is a scientific and techological power. But this claim can hardly be tested by real numbers. Of the 14 countries spends on research and development, India is the only country who spent single digit of US dollars per capita on R&D.

India has just 110 scientists per one million population and spends a mere $3.53 per capita on research and development in science and technology.

According to information volunteered by Minister of State for Science and Technology Kapil Sibal, India stands last in a list of 14 countries in spending on research and development in science. China, which stands one notch higher, spends $12.15 per capita and has 633 scientists per million - about six times as many as India's.

Sunday, January 21, 2007

China's trains to run at over 200 km/h from April

Chinese Minister of Railways Liu Zhijun told an annual work conference that beginning April 18, trains on lines such as Beijing-Harbin, Beijing-Shanghai, Beijing-Guangzhou, Guangzhou-Shenzhen and Jinan-Qingdao will travel at speeds of 200 km per hour, with certain sections reaching 250 km per hour.

Preparation work for the speed boost -- including safety tests, improvement of technical guarantee systems and staff training -- has been finished, he said.

Thursday, January 18, 2007

Assam Struggles for Independence from Colonial India

The United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) on Thursday reiterated its demand asking migrant workers, mostly from Bihar, to quit Assam.

"Many times we appealed to the Hindi-speaking people that the conflict running in Assam is with colonial India, so go away from here as soon as possible. Again we appeal to those people coming from colonial India to stay away during this conflicting period," the ULFA said in its fortnightly newsletter Freedom.

Authorities have blamed the ULFA for a wave of attacks over January 5 to January 8 in which 73 people were killed, 61 of them being migrant workers.

The ULFA have not owned responsibility for the violence and instead blamed New Delhi for the massacres.

"For the last few days people are ceaselessly condemning the ULFA by holding it responsible for the attacks on Hindi-speaking people. We once again reiterate that ULFA will never entertain the dirty policy of acquiring its goal by gambling with the lives of innocent people," the rebel statement said.

"Over the years the Indian colonial rulers are venturing into the tactics of bombing in public places, buses, trains and then people blame the ULFA. To tarnish ULFA's image, the colonial government's functionaries are utilising this opportunity."

The ULFA, fighting for an independent homeland since 1979, said it would step up its armed campaign.

"They (New Delhi) talk of dialogue on the one hand and announce full-fledged military operation on the other. ULFA is destined to give proper reply to this dual policy by boosting the struggle," the statement said.

"There is no way left other than intensified resistance struggle if India does not tackle the Assam-Indo political conflict politically and opt for displaying military might. Masses will rightly choose their path for resolution."

The ULFA threat to step up its campaign comes in the wake of a major counter-insurgency operation launched in Assam and Arunachal Pradesh.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had on Tuesday said 'terrorism will not be tolerated' and dealt with 'firmly'.

This report came from hindustantimes. India government and many othr Indian propaganda machines blamed ULFA for violence. But it sounds not true.

Monday, January 15, 2007

Internet: China takes over

Yes, the usual suspects top Alexa's top three (though Alexa's owner Google stands at number 3 behind Yahoo and MSN) but the real surprise is where Chinese language websites rank.

A US Congressional hearing once "found" that the internet was of strategic importance to the US economy.

That's a lesson not lost in China - as the latest figures from Alexa.com demonstrate for of the top ten websites worldwide, three are Chinese sites with little or no English on them.

Even though the top ten is dominated by sites owned by or close to Google (see list below), baidu.com (no. 4), qq.com (9) and sina.com.cn are all Chinese owned (baidu.com is part owned by Google).

Microsft sites also score well (live.com is Microsoft's search site - but its results are not very good: its first site listed for "money laundering" is seemingly for a company that went out of business about two years ago and the website has not been updated since.

Outside the top ten, sitting amongst the likes of ebay, wikipedia and even Microsoft's corporate site are two more Chinese-only sites, bringing the total in the top twenty to a quarter of the list.

Take out Microsoft and Google's dominance and the only non-Chinese top ten site is yahoo.com. Despite the reputation of India as a tech-savvy country, no Indian site makes it to the top twenty, nor do any European - including British - sites. Indeed, the only non-US and non-Chinese site listed in the top 20 is Yahoo's Japanese site.

Sunday, January 14, 2007

China`s capital market charge

WORLD MONEY

A V Rajwade / New Delhi January 15, 2007

China had the largest issues of fresh equity in the year, exceeding even the issues in the US last year.

The speed and scale at which China changes, and digests the changes, never ceases to amaze me — from Mao’s cultural revolution to Deng’s capitalistic revolution is less than five years; from Asia’s worst infrastructure in the early 1990s to perhaps the best in a decade; from the mess in the banking space to the world’s largest ever IPO and second largest bank by market capitalisation in five years. Reforms have been instituted in totality in the financial sector. One manifestation of this is that more than $100 billion of corporate funding (a fifth), came through sources other than bank loans. Not all of this can be characterised as capital market activity in the traditional sense, as there seem to be some instruments peculiar to China.

More than half the amount raised from non-bank sources was in the form of IPOs, making China the largest issuer of fresh equity in the world. This is remarkable considering that, after new issues had been suspended by the authorities for a year, issuance resumed only in the middle of last year. A recent issue by the China Life Insurance Company attracted subscriptions totaling $100 billion! (Paralleling the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Life is now the world’s second largest insurance company by market cap.) The secondary market in equity warrants is the largest in the world even when there are just 20 issues, and the market did not even exist 18 months back. The bond market is also getting sophisticated: there was an issue of dollar-denominated Chinese Residential Mortgage Backed Securities in Singapore and Hong Kong a few months back.

The enthusiasm of the investor for equities is understandable given the extremely low interest rates (banks pay just 2 per cent to depositors), the fast growing economy and the fact that the index has gone up 130 per cent last year — ironically, it had fallen sharply over the previous four years despite the economic boom. The recently reconstituted regulatory regime is cleaning up the secondary market practices and making it more transparent. Earlier, given the ban on domestic IPOs, several Chinese companies listed only in Hong Kong. After the ban was lifted, major issues are now being floated in both Hong Kong and the Shanghai/Shenzen stock markets. IPOs by Chinese companies on global market totalled $45 billion in 2006.

Another major reform has been the abolition of the “non-tradable” category of shares — these were actually state holdings, and comprised two-thirds of the total share capital of the listed companies. While such non-tradability no longer exists, it is not clear whether the shares would actually come in the market, as part of the privatisation of the state sector. Remarkably, the rise in equity prices last year took place in the face of the possibility of the huge amount of hitherto non-traded stock coming in the market. Including the capitalisation of the companies listed only in Hong Kong, the market capitalisation of Chinese-listed companies now comes to around $1,600 billion. Mergers and acquisitions in China (including Hong Kong) totalled $350 billion last year. Like the economy and banking, Chinese capital market activity has overtaken its Indian counterpart in many areas.

The mutual fund sector is also growing rapidly. While money market funds have dropped in assets as the stock market boomed, the aggregate mutual fund assets are in excess of $100 billion. India’s, on the other hand, are about $80 billion. As part of the financial market reform, pension fund management regulations have been introduced. These envisage a small proportion of the funds to be invested in the stock market. The insurance sector has also been reformed with foreign companies allowed a majority holding in both life and general insurance companies. Clearly, the Chinese are well ahead of us in some of the areas which we keep debating.

While, in general, China continues to welcome foreign direct investments without too many reservations, including in the retail sector, some backlash is developing in respect of the takeover of existing domestic companies by foreigners. It took a Citibank-led consortium one year to get approvals to take over a relatively small Chinese bank. Carlyle, the private equity fund, has also faced problems and opposition to a takeover bid. On this issue as well, the contrast with us is interesting. We seem to be much more wary of fresh investment proposals, than takeovers or other private equity investments!

Meanwhile, commercial banks’ reserve requirements have been increased to 9.5 per cent to cool the economy and the yuan continues its gradual appreciation against the dollar. A Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (SHIBOR) market in the domestic currency has started in Shanghai.

Saturday, January 06, 2007

How IndianMedias Play with Numbers

China’s auto exports doubled to 340,000 units in 2006 but were less than half of India’s total vehicle export tally of 970,620 units (including two- and three-wheelers). Sedan exports tripled to 90,000 units in China but fell far short of India’s 191,723-unit passenger vehicle export tally.

According to SIAM statistics, India’s passenger vehicle exports, dominated by cars, quadrupled from 46,028 units in 2001 to 164,965 units in 2004, hitting 171,608 units in 2005. India’s total export CAGR in the 01-06 period was 41.72% with cars and jeeps clocking 33%. China’s total vehicle exports, on the other hand, jumped 120% from 78,000 units in 2004 to 173,000 units in 2005. In terms of value, China’s vehicle exports have hit $1.58 billion while India’s tally is expected to be $2.8 billion, up from $2.25 billion clocked in 2005. Just passenger vehicle exports from India (mostly cars and some jeeps) were worth an estimated $1.4 million in 2006.

India’s auto parts exports too have been on a growth trot with total cumulative parts exports being worth Rs 6280 crore in the fiscal 2004-2005 which is expected to touch Rs 9700 crore in 2006, as per data collated by ACMA.

As for China, its total exports (vehicles and parts) reached $10.9 billion in 2005, up 34%. India's auto parts have been growing at a CAGR of 39% in the past three years helping the export tally to grow from the Rs 2623 crore clocked in 2001-2002. Parts exports are expected to be up by nearly 54% in 2005-06. India's imports are growing at the CAGR of 39% in the past five years and are expected to touch Rs 8450 crore.

More Than 50 Killed in India's Pro-independence Violence

A second day of bloodshed in India's restive northeast took at least 21 lives Saturday, including 13 migrant workers shot while they slept and eight government employees killed by a land mine explosion.

On Friday, a series of attacks by suspected separatist rebels killed 35 other migrants and wounded at least 19 in Assam state's tea-growing districts of Tinsukia and Dibrugarh, officials said.

Migrants are frequently attacked by rebels of the United Liberation Front of Asom in an effort to draw national attention to their demands for independence for ethnic Assamese. At least 10,000 people, mostly civilians, have died since the rebellion began in 1979.

Thursday, January 04, 2007

With gifts of parliaments, dams and hospitals, China woos Africa

BISSAU, Guinea-Bissau -- China paid for the marble and tile parliament building soaring above the crumbling homes of this former Portuguese colony, and is also promising a dam and a military hospital -- all with none of the political strings Western donors might attach.

Intent on cementing ties across Africa, China is active even in impoverished Guinea-Bissau, a small nation with little industry, no oil and few exports.

Chinese Foreign Minister Li Zhaoxing ended a two-day visit here Thursday, part of a tour that includes Chad, Benin, Central African Republic, Eritrea and Mozambique. Li arrived from Equatorial Guinea, Africa's third-largest oil producer, where he agreed to forgive about $75 million in debt.

Some nations on Li's itinerary are sources of the raw materials China's booming economy craves. Countries like Guinea-Bissau may not have much to offer today, but could in years to come. In courting them, China has turned on its head the Western aid formula that has tied public works projects to progress in good governance.

"China is not like the World Bank, they don't attach all these conditions on the money," said Edmundo Vaz, a former adviser to the Guinea-Bissau Finance Ministry who now runs a bank.

"The West makes us wait, but we're a poor country -- we don't have time wait," he said.

The Chinese strategy is especially troubling to countries like France, traditionally a power in West Africa, said Valerie Niquet, a director at France's Institute for International Relations. France has a particular interest in Chad and Central African Republic, countries on Li's tour where stability has been undermined by violence in neighboring Darfur.

"China is not listening at all to the concerns that are being expressed by Paris on these development strategies," she said.

When asked about China's investment in nations with records of human rights abuses -- notably Sudan and the Central African Republic -- Li replied curtly: "Do you know what the meaning of human rights is? The basic meaning of human rights is survival -- and development."

Inside the parliament building, security guard Feliciano Balde said his country is better served by Chinese aid.

"In a corrupt country, it's better to come and build something big like this where the people can come to discuss politics," said the 42-year-old Balde. "At least this is something we can see. Other countries give us money, but the politicians eat it, and so people like me never see any of it."

Africa has become a crucial part of China's growth strategy. Trade between Africa and China has grown fourfold since 2001, topping $45 billion in the first 10 months of last year. At a summit attended by 35 African heads of state in Beijing last fall, Chinese entrepreneurs signed deals worth $1.9 billion with African governments and firms.

China has found a seemingly limitless market in Africa for its cheap goods. And oil-rich countries like Nigeria and Angola provide the natural resources China needs to sustain its rapid growth.

The imbalance between a superpower like China and a struggling West African country like Guinea-Bissau has prompted some to describe the Chinese overtures as the latest chapter in Africa's history of exploitation.

Ivan Nhuqui watched a Chinese construction crew working on another gift -- a small subdivision of cinderblock homes for the military elite.

"It hurts me to see this. The construction is bad. It has no quality. And although the buildings are big compared to what we have, they're small compared to our sea," the 20-year-old said.

He referred to maritime treaties signed with China in recent years that give Chinese fishing vessels access to Guinea-Bissau's waters. Some say the treaties are the unofficial price for the new parliament building. It's a claim officials from both nations deny, but one that former U.S. Ambassador to Guinea-Bissau John Blacken says is not far-fetched.

"These buildings and things are basically tokens in return for the fishing agreements which are extremely beneficial to the Chinese," said Blacken, who estimates the Chinese have netted $85 million worth of fish from the country's waters.

By contrast, the parliament building cost roughly $6 million.

"What the government doesn't seem to understand is that they're being systematically robbed," Blacken said.

Prime Minister Aristides Gomes acknowledged an imbalance of power, but argued that the government can hold its own. "It's true that we come to negotiating table from a position of weakness," he said. "But we can't be fearful to the point of paralysis."

What is clear is that Chinese influence has seeped deeply into African soil.

On the pavement outside the building where the Chinese and the Guinean foreign ministers met to discuss the latest construction plans, Una Dang ekes out a living selling salted purple yams for 20 cents a serving.

Monday, January 01, 2007

China doubles auto exports in 2006

China was expected to produce and sell over 7 million vehicles in 2006 and may bypass Germany to become the third largest automobile producer judging by the number of units.

With the rapid improvement of the auto industry. China made big progress in the international market.

Over the past few years, China's exports of vehicles and parts have grown rapidly. In 2005, exports reached 10.9 billion dollars, an increase of 34 percent on the previous year. China's auto exports doubled in 2006 from the previous year to hit a record 340,000 units, state media reported Monday.

Xinhua News Agency quoted a Ministry of Commerce official as saying of the total, sedan exports topped 90,000 units, a 200 percent increase over 2005. The total is up from 78,000 units More detail could be reached here.