Main Street Investor

By Andrew Benington

There is no philosophy, no plan, no system that works consistently for investors. There is only what is obvious and panic.

Take the eurozone “crisis.” Large-cap global businesses based in the eurozone are at March 2009 prices. Yet the world economy is slowing a few percent, not collapsing. So what’s causing this obvious anomaly. Politics.

Merkel is up for re-election soon. She failed to fix the systemically incompetent German banking system, and allowed it to leverage German savings into a Spanish housing bubble. In classic politician she blames someone else, “the lazy cheating foreigner who seeks to beggar the good German worker”.

With Merkel going off the reservation, Draghi has stepped in to the leadership role and in large part Europe is now resolved. So I have taken a position thru a reputable ETF provider.

China worries me. I want to like it but I don’t. The government don’t seem the right sort to me. And it’s not one people, it’s an empire of the unwilling within one border and that’s a recipe for a civil war. Having said this I have a little invested in FCI because the growth story has a way to run.

Apple has 2 serious problems. Jonathan Ive doesn’t need the money. And Apple
/quotes/zigman/68270/quotes/nls/aaplAAPL executives don’t understand their customers. IPhone users are cool, liberal early adopters. Since they were kids others have copied them. It’s part of their identity. They don’t identify with preventing people with less money than them, from having a cool looking phone that works well. That the Apple executives don’t know this about their customers augurs badly for the future of the business. I think it would be crazy to short today, but a long term put option is worth considering.

Google. Since when is 3 links to the same Wikipedia article and 10 pages of adverts a search result. I’ve tried Android and it’s just not as good as the iPhone. Google’s
/quotes/zigman/93888/quotes/nls/googGOOG design is universally terrible. OK that’s the criticism over. I like Google, they are developing things I want to buy like the Google Glasses and a self drive car. This is my type of company, bringing sci-fi to life. But why does it all have to be so ugly and unwieldy. I suggest they get Ive and make him an equal partner. That’s the point. Terrible design and a poor UI is fixable and money earning for a company like Google because their strength is invention.

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