And those who strive hard for Us, We will most certainly guide them in Our ways; and Allah is most surely with the doers of good. 29:69 The Quran

Lebanon's Darkening Slide

Syed Javed Hussain

Grappling with presidential vacuum, compounded by national disorientationthat is further aggravated by mutual distrust, incrimination and loss ofcommon sense as well as a national sense of urgency, Lebanon is sliding fastinto an abyss of unfathomable depth taking with it all good tidings for aconsiderable stint of time in future. In 80s revolution Hezbollah emerged asa saving grace for Lebanon and kicked Israel out of Lebanon albeit with thehelp of Syria.

Although, since then Syrian influence on Lebanon had increasedproportionate to the depleting influence of Western powers yet Lebaneselived with it, as they had become tired of the US, French and European andIsraeli meddling with their domestic affairs. Syrian presence in Lebanon wasobvious though, they were discreet enough not to repeat the mistakes oftheir predecessors in Lebanon. Syria helped Lebanon recover its sovereigntyin 80s and until they ended their active presence in Lebanon, they ostensibly worked towards this end.

With the rise of the US influence in the Middle East, leading to all time USmilitary presence in and around the region, the mechanics of regional politicschanged.

The Western powers found yet another opportunity to recover Lebanon andbring it back to its folds to counter Syrian and Iranian stress on Israeliborders. In the aftermath of Rafik Hariri’s killing Syria was successfullydemonised and forced out of the country militarily; Lebanon was attackedto eliminate Hezbollah.

Pro-Israel West failed on both counts. Syria had withdrawn its forcesdiligently to remove an irritant so that the veracity of charges levelled againstit regarding the murder of Rafik Hariri as well as Lebanon’s instability couldbe proved wrong. The West could not scratch Syria from the hearts andminds of millions of Lebanese, who still thankfully remembered Syrian sacrifices, in men and material, for bringing peace and stability to theircountry.

Israeli defeat in terms of realising its military objectives in 37 day war notonly exposed the moral bankruptcy of its killing machine, mostly furbished,fed and sustained by the US money, it diluted its halo of invincibility thatwas created in the haze of 1967 and 1973 Arab Israeli wars. The war saw a new military stratagem at play: Israel’s total disregard to maintain anydistinction between military and civilian targets as long as the enemy targetcould be eliminated, abolished or neutralised, successfully.

West’s leaders too failed the West. Whereas anti war demonstrations, everincreasing in terms of participation and frequency, all across the Westernlandscape demanded imme-diate stoppage of war, its leaders completelyfailed to see the Devil at work in Israel.

The magnitude of death and destruction, the loss of civilian property and lifeof non-combatant population was unimaginatively huge. The SecurityCouncil at the United Nations completely failed to act promptly because of Israel’s Godfather, the US and thus Devil’s game of bloodletting went onfor 37 days.

Whereas, Lebanon’s army stayed out of the battle Hezbollah’s fighters facedthe full brunt of Israeli war machine. Now, the same general of Lebanonarmy is being tipped as the next president of the country. The governmentunder Fuad Siniora is in rush. It wants a quick fix to eliminate andmarginalise the opposition to government in Lebanon that has beendemanding a change of the government it consider the most corrupt, pro-Israel/West and inept in taking care of Lebanon’s national interests. The tendeferments in the election of Lebanon’s president speak volumes about the difficulties in reaching any understanding between the government and theopposition.

The political conflict over the presidency is escalating and turning itself into afull fledge war and might lead the country into a chaos of unfathomableproportions. It is feared that if political issues are not resolved throughpolitical means two rival governments might be formed, as was the case atthe end of the 1975-1990 civil war.

Under the influence of Jewish-Western nexus the government of FuadSiniora has been rejecting all demands of the opposition that is being pushedto the corner with a very few options to resort to. The desperation onpolitical front can be gauged by the fact that a seasoned politician, MichelAoun, a former Maronite Lebanese army chief, who led a campaign from hisParis home against Damascus before he returned to Lebanon in 2005 afterSyria had withdrew from the country, has allied his Free Patriotic Movement with Hezbollah and other opposition parties and is demanding theremoval of Fuad Siniora’s government. Challenging the integrity ofopposition parties in Lebanon Pro West-Israel government of Fuad Siniorasimply brushes the opposition parties aside branding them as Pro-Syriagroups.

Disagreement over the election of his successor was on the horizon beforeMr. Lahoud had left the office last Nov. It was expected that the crisis mightpush the country into a chaos. In his parting statement on 23rd Novemberhe said, ‘he was handing over responsibility for the country’s security to the army on the grounds that conditions existed “which could lead to a state ofemergency.”

Fuad Siniora rejected the assessment of the outgoing president, took chargeof the country on 24th November, and told reporters “we will exert allefforts to carry out as soon as possible the election in line with theconstitution. … We, as a government, will continue to carry out our dutiesas provided by the constitution.” The constitution that needs to be amendedto break the impasse and that is the thing, which is not possible without thefull participation and agreement of the opposition, that is already onLebanese streets demanding the dissolution of Siniora’s government beforeany political agreement could be reached.

In desperation to push the election of the president through, bulldozing theopposition, Siniora’s government failed to elect the president for the tenthtime on 22nd Dec. The murky political scene is made duller each passingday. Terrorists are gaining grounds and in turn might make Lebanonunliveable for peaceful souls. Last week a top Lebanese army officer, Brigadier General Francois El-Hajj, head of army operations, and hisbodyguard were killed in a powerful car bomb that has further destabilisedthe country as it grapples with a presidential vacuum. According to themilitary assessment, El-Hajj was targeted because he was tipped to becomethe new army commander-in-chief, replacing General Michel Sleiman,frontrunner to become Lebanon’s next president.

Opposition is at the receiving end of all the blames as well as challenge to itsintegrity. That too from a government that remained silent when Israel hadattacked the country and was pounding Hezbollah positions in SouthernLebanon. All parties in Lebanon are in a no win position and must rally together to pull the country back from a steep slide into death anddestruction. Country’s power sharing system needs to be overhauled. Whyshould not there be a constitution that should respect all religions at par witheach other and a democracy that is the product of a popular vote.

The division of high offices of the country as spoils of war was the productof a crisis averted and should not be allowed to govern the sensibilities of acivil society. Lebanon can be a model for Christians of all denominations,Shias and Sunnis to live together in peace and harmony: only if Lebanese are able to defeat select political interests.

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With the rise of the US influence in the Middle East, leading to all time USmilitary presence in and around the region, the mechanics of regional politicschanged.﻿