Reading the Berman-Sherman tea leaves

6/28/12 6:30 AM EDT

As a rare decennial spectacle in the House, all of the incumbent vs. incumbent races slated for November make for great political theater.

But because of the personalities involved, the crazy amount of cash that’s going to be spent, and the fact that the two members are in the unusual position of facing each other twice this year, the contest between California Democratic Reps. Howard Berman and Brad Sherman might be the most interesting of all.

While the June 5 “top two” primary provided a glimpse at where things stand at the moment — Sherman finished first with 41 percent, followed by Berman at 31 percent — a fascinating new analysis from the Democratic consulting firm Redistricting Partners offers even more insight into this closely watched contest.

From their deep-dive analysis of the primary voting results:

Latino voters - Sherman over Berman decisively

Latinos strongly favored Sherman over other candidates, providing a nearly 4:1 support ratio to the next placing candidate. This can be readily seen in the mapping and correlates to the density of Latino voters within the current Sherman district. While Berman has some Latino voters the data showed little or no strength for him among this subset of the electorate.

Jewish voters – Berman over Sherman decisively

Voters with Jewish surnames supported Berman very strongly. His win among these voters was most convincing in his current seat where he was favored by 2:1 over Sherman. In Sherman’s old district he appears to have essentially tied Berman for the Jewish vote.

Asian voters - Sherman in first

Asian voters demonstrated a preference similar to republicans in degree, but in favor of Sherman and Singh, with Reed placing a close third at 20% support. This is the smallest subset of the electorate analyzed and they are unlikely to have a significant impact on the final outcome.

What’s equally interesting about this race is the key role another subgroup will play in the general election – Republicans. GOP voters are a key constituency in November that neither incumbent is especially well-suited to win given their legislative voting records.

While the analysis finds Sherman came in second with Republicans (after failed GOP candidate Mark Reed), watching both these two California Democrats attempt to learn another political language should be entertaining.

[For more on the Berman-Sherman race, check out Kyle Trygstad’s recent overview.]