Nate Silver on what the hell happened in Alaska - looks like the most likely scenario is that Democrats didn't show up to vote since the election had been called by then. Bad Democrats!

More of the Newsweek special election project - it's hard to link to so here are the chapters that have been released. It's really fascinating stuff if you're interested in what was going on inside the campaigns!

4:21 AM ... Now that Alaska seems on its way of reelecting its convicted felon senator and its (little doubt) soon to be indicted member of the House, I realize that perhaps I judged Sarah Palin too harshly. In the context of Alaska politics, I guess she really is a reformer.

4:26 AM ... Now that the "Bradley Effect" seems set for a richly deserved retirement, TPM Reporter Eric Kleefeld suggests christening the "Stevens Effect" -- the poll distorting effect of poll respondents unwillingness to admit they will vote for the convicted felon in the race.

Re my predictions:
- Obama picked up all those states, plus Florida. Most networks have called Indiana for him which would put him at 349 electoral votes. It looks like he's barely ahead in NC with 100% of the vote in, and barely behind in MO with 98% of the vote in. Although the last few states were close, the election certainly wasn't and we don't have to worry about recounts or anything like that. Still kinda in shock he won Ohio and Florida and Indiana!
- Senate: Dems did win seats in VA NM CO NH NC, with AK results not in yet and OR looking to be very close. The GA race has Saxby Chambliss(R) at 50.38% (he needs to stay above 50% to avoid a runoff) with 99% of the vote in, so that's pretty close. Al Franken(D) is barely ahead in MN with most of the vote counted.
- House: Dems pick up somewhere between 12-31
- California Prop 8 looks like it's gonna pass, I'm sad to say - "yes" is winning 52-48 with 62% of the vote in. I'm gonna assume it loses for peace of mind - staying up later hoping for a big comeback is probably not great for my health.

(oh, apparently a lot of GA early votes haven't been counted yet, so that could change things with the senate race and even the presidential one!)

I'm disappointed about Prop 8, of course (whose brilliant idea was it to let people take away rights by a simple majority? /sigh) but you know what? You can take away my legal rights, but you can't take away my djedi. It sucks to be in a state of legal limbo, but there are far worse things. We'll keep fighting the good fight and live our lives in the meantime. (encouraging words from Andrew Sullivan) I'm so overwhelmed by the historic nature of Obama's win and the fact that, with a solid majority in the Senate and House, hopefully he can get things done.

- President: Obama wins Kerry states + IA NM CO VA NV OH for a total of 311-227 electoral votes. (here's a decent calculator to play with) This is a somewhat conservative estimate and I hope he breaks 330 EVs or so so it's not that close.
- Senate: Dems win new seats in VA NM CO AK NH OR NC for a total of 58. The GA race goes to a hotly-contested runoff.
- House: Um, I dunno, Dems gain 25 seats.
- California's Prop 8 fails but it's very very close.

A reminder: exit polls will be leaked tomorrow during the day. They will be partial numbers and very unreliable (they showed Kerry winning in 2004). I don't think I'm gonna be able to stop myself from looking at them (numbers!!) but they're pretty meaningless.

The short version: Obama wins, Edwards just barely beats Clinton for second. Huckabee wins on the Republican side.

Back in 2003, I was a huge Dean supporter. I got to shake his hand (this was back in April when he was pretty unknown), went to Meetups for him and wrote letters to voters in Iowa, sent him lots of money, went down to San Antonio for a rally wearing my Dean shirt and hat, etc., etc. When he lost in Iowa and then the whole Dean Scream nonsense, it broke my heart. I did get behind Kerry, not terribly enthusiastically, but what's the alternative, right? His loss broke my heart too, but in a smaller way.

Anyway, I feel a little bad that I wasn't backing a particular candidate, because I don't want to lose my passion...but in the end it's really hard to tell who would make the best President. They're all pretty good, and I'd be happy if any of them got elected. (even Gravel...think of what an entertaining four years that would make!)

Tomorrow night: movie
Saturday: drive to Houston, do a bachelor party
Sunday: drive back to Austin earlyish, meet djedi's parents and look at houses. Maybe decide to make an offer on the one we like. That would be pretty neat.

And remember, caucuses aren't elections nor particularly democratic (with a lowercase "d"), so when whoever wins try not to get too excited even though presumably the media will crown him/her tomorrow morning because it's not like the media has a blatant interest in making the caucuses overly-relevant with their millions of dollars in media ads.

Also, I will say to supporters of Hillary what my mom said to me about Howard Dean in 2004 (paraphrased and mostly remembered): "Son, feel free to support whoever you want, but if Dean wins the nomination and then loses to Bush you're in big trouble".

So, the big news is obviously that Prop 2 passed by a wide margin - 76%-24%.

Before my analysis and thoughts, a message to those of you who didn't vote for whatever reason: I understand that situations come up on Election Day and that we're all busy people. But when you don't vote, you're letting other people speak for you, and in Texas, that's not necessarily a great idea :-) You may argue that your vote wouldn't make a difference, since the margin was so wide, but if it had passed with a narrower margins we'd see stories about how it was a close vote and did more poorly than expected instead of Ban on gay marriage passes by large margin statewide (screw the Stateman's registration...grr...). So, if you're not registered to vote, please do so - it's easy to do. And if you couldn't vote for whatever reason, just plan ahead next time and vote early or request an absentee ballot. Both are pretty easy to do.

Here's why I not as upset as maybe I should be: I know that we're on the right side of this issue, and I am fully confident that in the end we will win. It may be 10 years, it may be 50 years, but at some point gays being married will be like interracial marriages today. So, screw you, Texas, but we're in this for the long haul.

Anyway, the news was good from other parts of the country - Democrats won the governor's race in New Jersey and Virginia, and Maine rejected a measure to repeal antidiscrimination laws for gays (after voting anti-gay in 1998 and 2000). So that's good, at least.