A non-partisan blog dedicated to a discussion of politics from a social scientific perspective.

Thursday, March 15, 2012

The Fat Lady Didn't Sing...

Another week of Republican primaries has resulted in another split decision by the GOP electorate. Frontrunner and presumptive nominee Mitt Romney won Hawai'i, Guam, American Samoa, and the Northern Mariana Islands. Rick Santorum picked up wins in Kansas, Alabama, and Mississippi as I predicted here. Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul were shut out, though Gingrich did pick up delegates in both MS and AL with his 2nd place finishes there. That leaves the race for the GOP nomination pretty much exactly where it was a week ago with Gov. Romney holding a comfortable lead in delegates over his main rival, Senator Santorum. Barring an exit from the race by Newt Gingrich (who cannot win the nomination at this point), the process is likely to drag on through Texas (May 29) and CA (June 5) before Romney can get to the magic 1144 delegate total. There is a slight chance he won't get there, which is what keeps Gingrich in the race at this point. Josh Putnam has an excellent analysis of where the race stands through March 13th, while Larry Sabato and the gang at the Crystal Ball have projections about what comes next.

The bottom line is that we probably won't be hearing the Fat Lady sing anytime soon when it comes to this year's GOP nomination process.

About Me

I am an Assistant Professor of Political Science. My research interests include the presidency, the Congress, and institutional relationships. I'm married (Kate) with one daughter. We have two rescue hounds named Remy and Tessie, who love to get into trouble. My wife and I are the owners of the web based travel agency 'The Cruise Doctor' We love traveling to Walt Disney World and just about anywhere by cruise ship.