Friday, October 10, 2014

Market Watch

In the advanced line for this game the Titans were touchdown favorites. The line was kept off the board when the numbers were released after Week 5, but some shops put up some -6's on the board. Now that Locker has been downgraded to 'doubtful' this game got put back up at -5. Apparently people think that was too much, so it's been bet down to -4 (for now). 55% of the bets are on the winless Jags.

Bottom Line

If you've followed my blog this year then this pick will be no surprise at all. I'm fading the Jaguars every week until they cover (or the line becomes ridiculous). Therefore, I shouldn't really need to provide any reasoning, but here are a few thoughts on this matchup anyways ...

Blake Bortles. The guy is the future of this team and he's shown some nice poise for a first year player, but he continues to make a lot of rookie mistakes. Far too many times he's checking down for short throws on third and long, or failing to recognize the situation in a game (completing a 1 yard pass at the end of the PIT game with no timeouts). The biggest thing he brings to the offense is mobility in the pocket, but he's still surrounded with some of the worst talent in the league.

On defense, their secondary is a mess, remain one of the worst teams on third down, and don't force many turnovers. Their pass rush showed signs of life last week, but this unit still gave up almost 400 yards of offense.

The worst part of this matchup is the fact that I'm backing Tennessee. That's not something I feel good about whatsoever, but a below average Titans team is still better than the lowly Jags. "Clipboard" Charlie is filling in as a competent backup, which should be enough given the opponent.

Will they feel the effects of blowing a 28-3 lead? It's possible. They know their season is over and now they must find motivation to beat the worst team in football. Sooner or later the Jags will cover, and this is as good a chance as any, but until they do I'm willing to bet the other side - as ugly as it might be.