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Austin-area growth rate ranks 2nd in nation

Austin-area growth rate ranks 2nd in nation

Death and taxes are certain, and now in Texas and in the Austin region, we might add population growth.

A signature story of the past decade, robust growth is persisting in the new one, according to new census population estimates out today showing surges in Texas' biggest metropolitan centers, and Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos ranking as the nation's second fastest growing metro area between April 2010 and July 2011, with a 3.9 percent population increase. The new estimates put the Austin metro area's population at 1.78 million.

Among counties, Williamson was the nation's 10th fastest growing, with a 4.8 percent gain.

The Austin metro area added 67,230 people during the 15-month period (which ranked 10th in the nation), or 4,482 a month. Travis County had the majority of that gain, with 38,858.

"It's still about Austin," Ryan Robinson, the city's demographer, said about the data. "It's about the fact that when people move here, they're wanting to move into the heart of the metropolitan region, and the reason they want to do that is I think the vibrancy, the quality of life, the overall culture."

Robinson said he had expected the Austin metro area to be among the nation's fastest growing, but its 3.9 percent growth surprised him. The rate, he said, rivaled growth from 2006 to 2008, "before we began to feel the effects of the recession."

Five metro areas with 2011 populations of at least 1 million were among the nation's 20 fastest growing. Four were in Texas: Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, San Antonio (ranked 16th), Dallas-Fort Worth (17th) and Houston (18th).

"Growth has continued to be centered in the Texas Triangle, the area from Dallas-Fort Worth, down to Austin and San Antonio and on to Houston and Galveston," said Steve Murdock, director of the Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University.

The data are from the first census population estimates for counties and metro areas to be published since the 2010 census counts were released.

In the past decade, Texas led the U.S. in population growth, increasing 20.6 percent to 25.1 million, a gain of about 4.3 million. During the period covered by the newest census data, the U.S. population saw its slowest growth since the 1940s, but Texas gained more people than any other state.

Still, the figures out today are particularly remarkable for Texas.

Four Texas counties that were already among the nation's most populous ranked in the top 10 in the nation with the greatest gains from 2010 to 2011. They included Harris, Dallas, Bexar and Tarrant counties.

Among the 50 fastest-growing counties for the period, 12 were in Texas, more than any other state.

Murdock said Texas' growth can be attributed to a number of factors, including that the state's economy is healthier than others, but the largest factor is natural increases, meaning more births than deaths.

In Travis County, migration, which the Census Bureau defines as including domestic and international migration, accounted for 61.5 percent of the 38,858 population increase from April 2010 to July 2011. Of that figure, 17,453 was domestic, according to today's data.

For the Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro area, which includes Travis, Williamson, Hays, Bastrop and Caldwell counties, migration accounted for 65 percent of net population increase. Domestic migration accounted for more than 82 percent of that portion.

"Growth is something that, of course, Texans like. I think it reflects very positive things about the state," said Murdock, a former director of the U.S. Census Bureau. "Of course, the other side is that it continues to place tremendous demands on public services in Texas, in areas like education and health care."

Robinson said population surges should lead to more and unprecedented emphasis on regional approaches to issues such as water supply, transportation and social equity.