Thursday, January 07, 2010

Two polls out this morning that will no doubt give some comfort to the anti-perogie forces, but both should be taken with a grain of salt and should only be considered a conformation that while there is opportunity around the Conservative decision to shut down parliament and take a two-month vacation, converting on that opportunity is both challenging and uncertain.

The first poll is from Angus Reid and the Toronto Star and surveyed specifically on the decision to prorogue parliament, and it found a majority (53 per cent) opposed the decision, either strongly or moderately. Just 19 per cent agreed with the decision, while 28 per cent were unsure. Support was highest in Manitoba/Saskatchewan at 31 per cent, and opposition was highest in Atlantic Canada at 61 per cent and Ontario at 59 per cent. Along party lines, naturally opposition supporters were opposed, but so were 35 per cent of Conservative supporters (46 per cent of them agreed).

Asked if they believed the government that the decision to prorogue was just about gearing-up for the next stage of the economic plan, or the opposition that it was about hiding from the Afghan detainee abuse scandal, 23 per cent believed the government, 38 per cent sided with the opposition, and 39 per cent didn’t know who to believe. The party line numbers are predictable.

So, Angus Reid tells us Canadians disagree with the decision to prorogue (and that most aren't really paying that close attention either). That’s all well and good, but in isolation it means little. The real question is, what impact, if any, will this disagreement have on their voting intention? Just because I disagree with something doesn’t mean it will change my vote.

So, an outside the margin decline for the Conservatives, a small within the margin gain for the Liberals, a slight drop for the NDP and an unusual increase for the Greens. What does it all mean? Who knows for sure, but here’s my take:

Since not much else has been happening lately, it’s safe to say based on the Conservative dip that the prorogue story is putting a crimp in their numbers. And it’s also safe to say the opposition parties have yet to benefit much at all from the public disapproval of the Conservative decision.

These numbers largely echo what I’ve been saying since this began: even if people are annoyed at the Conservatives, the Liberals haven’t done the necessary spadework to be able to convert that dissatisfaction into support. We’re still languishing below 30 per cent, and only got a small bump. That’s because while there is anger with the Conservatives, they’re not enamored enough with the alternatives to make the jump. If the Liberals were a more credible alternative, you’d see a larger Conservative decline and a higher Liberal increase. But just because someone dislikes one choice doesn't mean they automatically like another.

Instead, you see a relatively small but still significant Conservative decrease, as those that are really dissatisfied park their support temporarily with the Greens, a traditional holding-basin for the temporarily annoyed, or with the undecided.

If the opposition parties, in particular the Liberals, don’t do anything to begin converting those dissatisfied former Conservative supporters into Liberal supporters by giving them a reason not just to be mad at the Conservatives but to support the Liberals, then over the next few weeks and months that support will slowly trickle back into the Conservative support column, and we’ll be back where we started.

That has been the clear pattern for several years now. They know what they need to do to break it. If they will or not remains to be seen.

Bryan Mulroney started way behind in the polls and only gained traction when he was able to show Canadians he had something more to offer than just opposing patronage.

"Yesterday's Man" Jean Chretien started from way behind in the polls against Campbell until the Red Book came out.

"Hidden Agenda" Harper started way behind Martin - about where Ignatieff is right now in fact - until he added some basic sense of policy and priorities to his arsenal of opposition.

Harris in 1995. Newt Gingrich in 1994. McGuinty in 2003. The list of examples goes on.

In each case, the population was ripe for a transfer of allegiance, and in each case Canadians wanted to seem something more than just opposition: just show us the basics, show us you aren't going to screw things up worse, that you are not just about getting into power.

And the bar was set pretty low on the opposition: Chretien's Red Book and Harris's "Common Sense Revolution" were the highwater mark, but Harper's "policiettes" (as Coyne called them) in 2006 or Mulroney's platform in 1984 were not ground shaking stuff.

You have to answer the very simple question: what are you about?

And we really haven't answered that question.

So with these polls, Harper may have been too clever by half with the prorogation. We can make it too clever by a quarter if we take advantage and use the time to present an alternative government.

I'm only half joking when I say that i think the Greens should swallow up the Liberals like Reform swallowed up the PCs.

That "unusual" bump for the GPC might have something to do with the fact that Elizabeth may was first out of the gate with a strong denunciation of the prorogation and a call for citizens to kick and scream. We're all still waiting for Jack and Iggy to grow a pair and get up on their hindlegs.

Our national embarrassment at Copenhagen may be having a belated or cumulative effect. We saw May in Copenhagen representing the environmental attitudes of the majority of Canadians while Harper was transparently supporting big oil and dirty tar sands.

Sorry to say it but MI has been a big letdown... from Dion, no less. All he needs to do is what Elizabeth may has been doing: talk to the people in their own language about the things that matter... without being afraid to promote some well-developed policy. Basic politics.

Since I know you and Jason are insiders, here's some advice from an old streetfighter. Get the party to quietly but effectively assist the grassroots amateurs who are doing their damnedest to organize pro-democracy rallies on Jan 23. This is the moment. Seize it.

Another factor that may play with all this is that Harper could end up splitting his own vote and fracture his party back into the reformers and PCers.

The reformers don't have much respect for Canadian institutions, including or perhaps especially Parliament - but - old PCers do. The disaffected Liberals who moved over to the Cons do as well.

If the contempt for Parliament is perceived as part and parcel of an overall contempt for all our institutions of governance and civil life then those Con voters who don't want to join that parade will defect. Maybe permanently.

That is why Libs are not reaping lost Con support.The long term effects of the 2008 Lib coalition.

Sorry Wilson. Your simply speculating just like your lousy Harper has been doing. Unless your an insider too valid info which I doubt, I think you had better quit making those kind of statements.

Now I wonder how Harper is feeling today after reading the latest polls. 9OOPS!9 I forgot, he doesn't read Canadian news so he says another lie no doubt) and how Canadians through these polls are telling them that they DO care about the detainee issue and the Con reform Copenhagen farce and this Parougi thing. You think maybe he will change his tactics again? Can he be that stupid again? YUO he can and he will try again I have no doubt.

I do. He's nothing but an opportunists and anything he tries again may work anymore as Canadians are now seeing him for what he really is and has been since day one.

Bring on an election. Canadians will know its money well spent to oust his sorrybackside right out of the country.

Good analysis Jeff, there is great oppurtunity here if managed correctly. Now is the time to start presenting an outline of alternatives to Conservative policy that the Liberals have. That is how we access the "not sure" or the undecided. It must be kept simple and straight forward, it must speak directly to the undecided voters needs, which appears to be clarity as to direction. Harper has a long record now of murkiness and blatant reversals(eg.income trusts). It will be of paramount importance to be sure to use information soon to be released by the PBO to advantage. Since the economy is the priority according to Harper I would suggest the Liberal caucus first meet with Kevin Page when his reports are released. They should include all upcoming confirmed candidates in this. Next of great importance will be the Auditor Generals report which will not be released until the HOC sits, as she is an Officer of Parliment. This means that the Opposition parties are going to have to bite the bullet on the throne speech, and the budget. Allowing of course for some procedural manouvering for some delay, and to show the actual lack of support for them. Once the AG reports and the conference has happened in Montreal, it may be time to move. A summer of thoughtful repose for the public and the opposition may better serve the objective of removing the Conservatives from government. This would have to be determined on an ongoing basis. It may also allow some time for the infighting to begin with the Conservatives, the polls say to me it is just below the surface. Once the iron fist of Harper is released, it is a forgone conclusion what will happen.

Good analysis Jeff, there is great oppurtunity here if managed correctly. Now is the time to start presenting an outline of alternatives to Conservative policy that the Liberals have. That is how we access the "not sure" or the undecided. It must be kept simple and straight forward, it must speak directly to the undecided voters needs, which appears to be clarity as to direction. Harper has a long record now of murkiness and blatant reversals(eg.income trusts). It will be of paramount importance to be sure to use information soon to be released by the PBO to advantage. Since the economy is the priority according to Harper I would suggest the Liberal caucus first meet with Kevin Page when his reports are released. They should include all upcoming confirmed candidates in this. Next of great importance will be the Auditor Generals report which will not be released until the HOC sits, as she is an Officer of Parliment. This means that the Opposition parties are going to have to bite the bullet on the throne speech, and the budget. Allowing of course for some procedural manouvering for some delay, and to show the actual lack of support for them. Once the AG reports and the conference has happened in Montreal, it may be time to move. A summer of thoughtful repose for the public and the opposition may better serve the objective of removing the Conservatives from government. This would have to be determined on an ongoing basis. It may also allow some time for the infighting to begin with the Conservatives, the polls say to me it is just below the surface. Once the iron fist of Harper is released, it is a forgone conclusion what will happen

It's been said before and proven untrue, but i'll venture there again -- Harper's credibility has taken a serious hit here, even those who aren't really following this are feeling something in the air. The whole fact that this is boiling over on facebook takes this into a new generational kind of region, young people have been more affected by the economic downturn than many other demographics, their general dissatisfaction with politics doesn't eliminate them from the equation -- just look at Obama. His wave evolved from an anti-bush movement. Not to get too far ahead but I do see opportunity here; as Ted notes small steps have often led to the biggest wins.

What did the 2 of you say when Chretien called an election barely 3 years into his mandate because it was tactically sound?... because Day Dared him to do it.

What do you think of a party that is now sitting on its hands (Again) but yelling loudly that "they have no confidence" in one sentence and "but Canadians don't want an election" in the next. (the latter is a bunch of BS, since Canadians do relatively little different in an election than they do right now) They are sitting on their hands for one reason only (its the same reason as all 4 of the parties). They don't have winning conditions in place.

What did you think about Martin ignoring a confidence vote for a couple days until he could... (bribe is an ugly word)... convince an opposition MP to join him out of the goodness of her principles... and be rewarded with a cabinet seat for those good principles. He did reestablish the confidence of the house in the end,....

You tell me... are all the opportunists only in the tory party? Yes?? How about all the hypocrites?