Portfolio

Tuesday, February 28, 2017

Metals are maybe something I don't talk about enough. here is the performance of Copper, Gold, Silver, & Platinum. It's noteworthy that despite Gold's huge rally lately it's only up around 3% over the last year. Meanwhile Silver has staged an impressive 25% rally. Copper was really in the dog house until the US Elections. After that it was off to the races as the metal literally soared straight up. Meanwhile the S&P 500 Total Return Index has rewarded investors with a 24.29% gain. Let's look at some charts.

Sunday, February 26, 2017

Very embarrassing but this article was never published a few weeks ago. Either way I wrote it so I might as well put it out there. My apologies to all readers for the oversight.

We just have to decide if we are willing to put our money where our faith is - The Long Haul Investor

It was close for a bit there at one point during the week when it seemed the market was going to log it's first down week in over a month. Nevertheless the S&P 500 managed to eke out another 0.7% gain for the week. Add in the fact that we haven't seen the S&P 500 close down by 1% in over 90 days(10/11/16 to be exact), plus over 10 days of new highs in the Dow, and it seems this bull market will never end!!!

Of course we know better here at The Long Haul. Eventually we'll see this market trend sideways or down for a bit. When is any one's best guess. I'd prefer sooner than later so I can buy more awesome companies at better than today's price.

Wednesday, February 22, 2017

We have earnings from two of our holdings that haven't had the best stretch for us. Wabtech(WAB) and Boston Beer Company(SAM) are our two most recent earnings reports. Wabtech reported their quarter yesterday while Boston Beer reports after the close today.

Saturday, February 18, 2017

This week's highlight was from Janet Yellen's semiannual testimony in front of Congress. When asked why the Fed didn't update their growth projections at the December meeting like other organizations did. Yellen said the Fed decided to refrain from updating it's economic forecasts until they had greater clarity on on any fiscal stimulus measures that are going to be taken. In other words now that it appears fiscal stimulus is on the way it seems the Fed maybe raising rates more than the markets expect them too.

Thursday, February 16, 2017

Let's say 3 years ago you had the choice of buying for a Valentines Day gift either Twitter(TWTR), or portfolio member Facebook(FB) stock. If you were lucky you bought Facebook stock as you likely posted your date night on the social sharing site with for all your friends to see and comment on. Clearly the performance of the two stocks agrees.

My apologies for not getting HCP's latest report out as personal matters took front and center the last few days. So here it is.

On Monday February 13th HCP Inc (HCP) reported Q4 and FYE'16 results. Q4 results came in with EPS of $0.12, FFO of $0.35, and revenues of $539.9 million. FYE'16 results came in with EPS of $1.34, FFO $2.39, and revenues of $2.12 billion. During the year the company completed it's previously announced spinoff of QCP. For the whole year the company entered into agreements to sell 64 communities to Brookdale Senior Living, and an additional $723 million in acquisitions along with $770 million in dispositions. The company also repaid $1.7 billion worth of debt in Q4. The company also gave guidance for 2017 that is inline with prior guidance released on 11/1/16.

EPS: $1.32-$1.38

FFO: $1.88-$1.94

SPP Cash NOI: 2.5%-3/5%

WhiteWave(WWAV) reported Q4 and FYE'16 results after the close today. Q4 EPS came in at $0.34 on revenues of $1.05 billion. FYE'16 results came in with EPS of $1.18 on revenues of $4.2 billion. The company continues to struggle with with its fresh food segment. Overall these are ok results. i think if the company didn't have the merger pending we would have seen the stock drop on this news. The company still expects to see it's merger with Danone to be completed this year. I'll have to figure out another company to replace this pick with.

Sunday, February 12, 2017

This week we saw every major index hit a new high. The Nasdaq led the way with a 1.2% gain for the week while continuing to lead in the new year as it's already tacked on 6.5% in 6 weeks!!!

The week was light in economic reports so we are going to focus strictly on the earnings front with our picks. We had a slew of reports out this week from Church & Dwight(CHD), Emerson Electric(EMR), Universal Corp(UVV), Cognizant Technology Solutions(CTSH), Reynolds American(RAI), and Cummins Inc(CMI).

Thursday, February 9, 2017

Our global leader in power and engine manufacturing, Cummins(CMI), reported their Q4 and FYE'16 results this morning. The company had Q4 EPS of $2.25(up 11.3%) on revenues of $4.5 billion(down 6%). The company had FYE'16 EPS of $8.23(up from $7.84) on revenues of $17.5 billion(down from $19.1 billion). I must say considering the challenging environment and sagging sales the company still managed to post net income that was barely unchanged from 2015 at $1.394 billion. Shares are so far up around 4% today. The company gave guidance for 2017:

Tuesday, February 7, 2017

Today we are receiving earnings from Church & Dwight(CHD), Emerson Electric(EMR), and later Universal Corp(UVV), and the 8th is Cognizant Technology Solutions(CTSH)

Church & Dwight(CHD) reported Q4 and FYE'16 results. Q4 EPS came in at $0.42 on revenues of $896 million. FYE'16 results came in with EPS of $1.75 on revenus of $3.49 billion. For the year the company increased operating cash by 8.1%, which got reflected in the 7% dividend increase to $0.19 share. Make no mistake about it they are a dividend machine as this marks the 21st consecutive year of dividend increases & 116 years of dividend payments. The company plans to continue targeting a 40% payout ratio. Shares are so far up over 2.5%

Monday, February 6, 2017

First of all sorry this did not get published over the weekend. The auto-scheduler wasn't set and I overlooked it.

It was a busy week with news from the Fed, economic reports, and plenty of earnings so I won't be wasting anyone's time here today. So like a grizzly on a salmon let's get on it.

The Federal Reserve released their FOMC rate decision which you can read here. At first look it seems the Fed is pretty bullish on the economy relative to their tepid wait & see outlook for most of 2016. The market I think actually agrees. The economy is still growing. The clip and pace of growth isn't meteoric by any measure. Yet it's still growth. Participants think the Fed will raise rates next at the June meeting with 60%+ odds still. I'd say that's about right. If not then I could easily see a September hike as the next likely target.

Thursday, February 2, 2017

We received a slew of earnings reports since yesterday from many of our biggest companies, and I'll update this post to highlight Visa after they report tonight.

Altria(MO) reported Q4 and FYE'16 results yesterday morning. Q4 EPS came in at $0.68 on revenues of $5.45 billion. For 2016 EPS came in at $3.03 on revenues of $22.8 billion. The company recently completed an acquisition of Sherman Group Holdings, which markets ultra premium cigarettes and cigars. The company gave 2017 EPS guidance that ranges between $3.26-$3.32. The stock initially started the day down a bit, but moved up the rest of the day to finish up 20 cents higher than the day before. #winning. Here are the CEO's remarks:

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