Editorial: Job numbers are a positive signal

Published: Thursday, April 24, 2014 at 05:23 PM.

For two months running, North Carolina’s unemployment rate has bested the national average. That’s a big improvement over where we were for the first part of the recovery — worse off than most of the nation.

North Carolina’s unemployment rate in March dropped a tenth of a point to 6.3 percent, compared with the national rate of 6.7 percent — a marked improvement since the recession hit this state even harder than it socked much of the rest of the country. The rate has dropped for nine straight months now.

North Carolina’s governor and Republican legislative leaders attribute the improvement, in part, to cutting benefit limits and kicking people off unemployment sooner, as well as business-friendly policies. Except, the numbers also tell another, less obvious story.

Over the past year the labor force also contracted by about 50,000 people. Although 106,000 people left the unemployment rolls in the year since last April, a little more than half became re-employed. The rest? They dropped out of the labor pool. Maybe they moved out of state or had enough money saved to retire early. But another likelihood, economists say, is that their benefits ran out and they simply gave up.

Now for better news: Although the April-March figures indicate a smaller labor force, both January and in March saw increases in the number of people either employed or looking for work. That is a sign that the work force may again be growing — a good economic indicator if the trend continues.

Earlier this year, University of North Carolina Wilmington economist Woody Hall noted that the work force in Southeastern North Carolina had already begun showing signs of growth, leading him to be more optimistic about economic growth in general for the coming year. And late last year an economics professor at N.C. State University predicted that the state would add more than 100,000 jobs in 2014. At the time, Michael Walden was predicting a 6.5 percent to 7 percent unemployment rate for the year. March’s numbers were even better, another positive sign.

Job growth is not evenly spread, and a large percentage of jobs added have been in low-wage fields. Unemployment tends to be higher in rural areas in particular. Most of the jobs added in the years prior to Walden’s study were in the Triangle, the Triad and the Charlotte metropolitan area.

For two months running, North Carolina’s unemployment rate has bested the national average. That’s a big improvement over where we were for the first part of the recovery — worse off than most of the nation.

North Carolina’s unemployment rate in March dropped a tenth of a point to 6.3 percent, compared with the national rate of 6.7 percent — a marked improvement since the recession hit this state even harder than it socked much of the rest of the country. The rate has dropped for nine straight months now.

North Carolina’s governor and Republican legislative leaders attribute the improvement, in part, to cutting benefit limits and kicking people off unemployment sooner, as well as business-friendly policies. Except, the numbers also tell another, less obvious story.

Over the past year the labor force also contracted by about 50,000 people. Although 106,000 people left the unemployment rolls in the year since last April, a little more than half became re-employed. The rest? They dropped out of the labor pool. Maybe they moved out of state or had enough money saved to retire early. But another likelihood, economists say, is that their benefits ran out and they simply gave up.

Now for better news: Although the April-March figures indicate a smaller labor force, both January and in March saw increases in the number of people either employed or looking for work. That is a sign that the work force may again be growing — a good economic indicator if the trend continues.

Earlier this year, University of North Carolina Wilmington economist Woody Hall noted that the work force in Southeastern North Carolina had already begun showing signs of growth, leading him to be more optimistic about economic growth in general for the coming year. And late last year an economics professor at N.C. State University predicted that the state would add more than 100,000 jobs in 2014. At the time, Michael Walden was predicting a 6.5 percent to 7 percent unemployment rate for the year. March’s numbers were even better, another positive sign.

Job growth is not evenly spread, and a large percentage of jobs added have been in low-wage fields. Unemployment tends to be higher in rural areas in particular. Most of the jobs added in the years prior to Walden’s study were in the Triangle, the Triad and the Charlotte metropolitan area.

That said, all counties have seen their unemployment rates falling, and the economists believe that job growth will continue.

It has been a long climb, and there are still potential pitfalls ahead, but the days of double-digit unemployment rates statewide appear to be over for now. We’ll take that.

A version of this editorial first appeared in the Wilmington Star-News, a Halifax Media Group newspaper.