Cyclone Threatens Region, Refugees

By

Shibani Mahtani

May 12, 2013 10:44 a.m. ET

A tropical cyclone headed toward Bangladesh and western Myanmar is raising fears of a potentially devastating humanitarian crisis in Myanmar's Rakhine state, where 140,000 Rohingya refugees displaced by sectarian violence are living in makeshift camps.

"Many of the camps are located in low-lying coastal areas, susceptible to tidal surge," said the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. The estimated 45,000 refugees living in Sittwe, Pauktaw, Myebon and Kyauktaw in Rakhine state are the "most vulnerable," it added.

Cyclone Mohasen is expected to land in Bangladesh on Thursday, but strong wind and rain will be felt earlier, there and in Myanmar. The U.N. estimates that 60 million people could be at risk across the two countries.

The U.N. humanitarian office held emergency meetings in Yangon and Sittwe, the capital of Rakhine state, over the weekend. A U.N. disaster-assessment and coordination team is also on standby.

Cyclone Mohasen—currently in the Bay of Bengal—is expected to intensify and land Thursday just south of Chittagong, the second-largest city in Bangladesh. Bangladesh's meteorological department in Dhaka said the storm will hit areas along the coast at Cox's Bazar, the country's main tourist area.

"We have asked all fishermen not to go out into open sea, and alerted the local government authorities," said Md. Ruhul Amin, deputy commissioner of the Cox's Bazar district. He said local authorities had been asked to hoist a danger signal of 3 out of 10—a moderate signal—, which might be increased depending on the storm's strength and direction.

Myanmar authorities, too, have issued warnings to coastal communities, but aid officials warn that areas there are far less equipped to deal with such potential disasters because of relatively poor investment in disaster relief.

"Bangladesh has in place prevention measures, evacuation centers and evacuation volunteers," said Kirsten Mildren, a Bangkok-based spokeswoman for the U.N.'s OCHA.

In comparison, all of Rakhine state, she said, is "highly vulnerable," even if it isn't where the cyclone first makes landfall, because of inadequate infrastructure. Aid agencies say the challenge of relocating over 100,000 displaced people makes the situation there potentially more disastrous. Authorities there on Sunday started moving communities at risk to higher ground.

Ye Htut, a spokesman for Myanmar President Thein Sein, said in a post on his official FacebookFB-1.26% page that local radio stations are issuing warnings to people living in Rakhine state, particularly fishermen who have been told not to go to sea. Authorities there, he said, are putting in place early notification systems.Myanmar's Department of Meteorology and Hydrology also has warned that people in the country's northwest should move to higher ground and sheltered areas.Tens of thousands have attempted to flee the country to neighboring Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand, many drowning before they got to shore.

U.N. agencies are working with the Rakhine state government, planning for strong winds, expected to be 80 kilometers an hour or more, and are identifying communities that are most at risk.

"It is fortunate that there are still a few days to go before this hits," said Ms. Mildren, adding that the priority is to "be as prepared as possible" even if the intensity of the cyclone, for now, doesn't seem to be as brutal as with Cyclone Nargis in 2008. The cyclone could veer from its current trajectory and head deeper into western Myanmar, where aid agencies have long warned of a coming crisis when monsoon rains hit fragile shelters housing the Muslim Rohingyas, who were displaced by clashes with majority Buddhists last year.

Displaced Rohingyas in Sittwe and Pauktaw are "very concerned," said Chris Lewa, founder of the Arakan Project, a human-rights advocacy group. Many there, Ms. Lewa said, feel that the government isn't prepared.

"We hear speakers warning us about the cyclone, but we are still afraid," said Ba Kyi, a Muslim community worker at a clinic in Sittwe. "Many of the displaced people cannot do anything, even though they hear the warnings, because they are still stuck in their camps. We can't help them more, except to warn them of the cyclone."

"I'm worried for them, and myself," Mr. Ba Kyi added. "As it is we don't live in a normal situation, it will be even harder to survive this."

The impending rains, which mark the start of Myanmar's monsoon season, underscore the urgency for the country's government to get a handle on sectarian tensions in Rakhine state. Since violence between Buddhists and ethnic minority Rohingyas broke out there last year, religious violence and deep-seated hostilities have prevented Rohingyas from returning to their homes or being resettled in other areas of the country.

Rohingyas, who aren't considered citizens of Myanmar by the country's government, are extremely restricted in their mobility, even between refugee camps. Although Myanmar's neighbors and bilateral partners have urged authorities to solve the problem there, resettlement of the minority group has remained complicated, particularly after clashes between Buddhists and Muslims spread to other regions in Myanmar in March.

The 2008 cyclone affected 2.4 million, mostly in Myanmar, according to the U.N., and was considered one of the worst natural disasters in the country's history. Myanmar's then-military government was widely criticized over its handling of the disaster, and accused of initially limiting foreign aid to even the worst-hit areas.

—Myo Myo in Yangon and Zain Syed in Dhaka contributed to this article.

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