Friday, November 16, 2012

The Blue Jays have agreed to sign Melky Cabrera to a two-year, $16MM contract, Enrique Rojas of ESPNdeportes.com reports. ACES represents Cabrera, who must pass a physical for the deal to be completed.

Cabrera served a season-ending 50 game suspension under the Joint Drug Program this past season. The 28-year-old was suspended for having elevated levels of testosterone, a performance-enhancing substance….

Before his suspension, Cabrera was enjoying the best season of his career. He posted a .346/.390/.516 batting line with 11 home runs, 25 doubles and 10 triples in 501 plate appearances with the Giants.

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Wow. $8M a year for two years. What do you think he would have gotten w/o the suspension? This is a tremendous signing by the Jays.

It depends on how Cabrera's 2012 finishes up, no? Let's say he regresses just a bit and finishes out at 335/380/500. At his age, coming off the last two seasons, I think 5/75 would be an opening bid and I could see him getting much, much more than that. The high bid would probably break 100M, especially if the market is as flush as some suspect.

The big question is which Melky Cabrera shows up next season. My guess is 290/350/450 with roughly his typical defense and baserunning. If Cabrera produces at that level, this is a steal.

I'm not under the impression that the Jays are actually going to make the playoffs this year or any other, but if they're going to try, they should concede nothing. An all-star at every position, that should be the goal. I want this to be the best 85-win fourth-place team in the history of baseball.

Cabrera's 2012, even if you make no PED adjustments, was driven by a big fluke BABIP. He hit .380 on balls in play, compared to a career average of .310 and a previous career high of .330. I think you've got to take about 125 points of BABIP air out of Cabrera's 2012 OPS.

His CAIRO projection for 2012 is 335/430, which looks about right to me. A 760 OPS is about average for a corner outfielder, and Cabrera's been roughly average in the field the last few years. 2/16 looks like a minor bargain for a league average player.

Kind of off-topic, but the Jays infield defense looks excellent on paper. That's very good news for Buerhle. The most staggering aspect about Cabrera's season with the Giants was his quantum leap as a right-handed hitter. The Jays are a very interesting, talented team. The AL East is going to be absolutely brutal.

It did not occur to me that one of Izturis/Bonifacio would be starting at 2B, but I guess it makes sense since it makes little sense to keep two utility IF unless there is a heavy platoon reason to do so. With Reyes, Bautista, Lawrie, and Encarnacion, they can seemingly afford a Brandon Crawford-style defensive caddy at one up-the-middle position.

I like the pen, for the most part, so we are down to whether they get the good and healthy vesions of Johnson and Romero. If they are both reasonably healthy and reasonably good, that looks like a very competitive team.

I think it's a bit risky to think we have any idea what Cabrera is expected to do. From 2008-10 he was pretty bad. In 2011, he stunned us all by being quite good. In 2012, he stunned us even more by being outstanding ... then he got busted.

2008-12 was already a very odd career arc that already identified him as an outlier then you add the uncertainty of the PED effect.

2/$16 is low-risk enough it doesn't really matter (and there's high reward potential) but you could be getting anything from old Melky to new Melky and I wouldn't feel confident about either.

I'm a little surprised both that a team would give him two years and that he would want two years. Assuming he gets through 2013 clean, he'd surely make more money in 2014 unless he is below-average.

you know, i really think the jays are going to be a train wreck next season. this type of spending spree rarely works out. the marlins "haul" seems fraught with peril. sort of like how it did for the marlins last season. cabrera is an even bigger gamble. best of luck to them.

you know, i really think the jays are going to be a train wreck next season.

Only the Red Sox had a bigger train wreck in the AL East than the Jays last year.

They lost three starting pitchers to injury in 4 days.
They lost the MVP runner up in 2011 to injury.
They lost their newly signed closer to injury before the end of April.
Their shortstop had a homophobic slur on his eye black.

you know, i really think the jays are going to be a train wreck next season. this type of spending spree rarely works out.

I know what you mean. But: they were a train wreck this year, partly because of not having talent available at key positions, so 2013 can't possibly be worse by comparison. As bad maybe, but there isn't worse to get. I think they'll be okay.

I remember the Toronto fans strutting all about when Troy Glaus and B.J. Ryan got their big deals.

That worked out well.

It did, actually. In a limited way.

(Trivia note: the Glaus trade is still alive in Toronto. He was acquired, with Sergio Santos, for Orlando Hudson and Miguel Batista. Santos drifted out of the organization, but they traded Glaus to the Cards for Scott Rolen. Then they traded Rolen to the Reds for Encarnacion, Josh Roenicke, and Zach Stewart. Encarnacion's still with the team, Roenicke isn't, and Stewart was part of the trade that brought Colby Rasmus and some evanescent spare parts back.)

The Jays had a bit of bad luck based on runs for/against during JPR's time as GM. In 2008 their Pythagorean Wins: 93 vs Tampa's 92, Boston 95, Yankees 87. Real life was Tampa 97 wins, Boston 95 (wild card), Yankees 89 and Jays 86. If things went based on runs for-against they'd have been the wild card. Instead another 4th place finish 9 games out of the playoffs. Sigh.

Being a Jays fan has been frustrating but you know one of these years things will go right and we'll see the playoffs again. If it could happen for Baltimore it could happen for anyone :)

Always fun following trades from start to finish. Right now my favorite is following Dustin McGowan if you get creative.
McGowan was drafted by the Jays in the 1st round of 2000's draft as a compensation pick for losing Graeme Lloyd. Lloyd was acquired in the Roger Clemens trade, and Clemens was signed as a free agent in 1997 by GM Gord Ash. Thus one legacy (sorta) of the Ash era is still kicking and if McGowan can make a comeback this year then Clemens being signed could be bringing returns still as he gets voted on for the HOF.

I do wonder if there is a way to reach back to the Gillick years here (1994 or earlier)?

Found one - Adam Lind - drafted as a compensation pick for the loss of Kelvin Escobar who was signed by the Jays as a free agent in 1992.

I believe the longest living trade the Yankees have is the original trade that brought Hideki Irabu to the Yankees form San Diego. The Yankees got Irabu from SD, and later traded him to Montreal for, among others, Jake Westbrook. Westbrook went to Cleveland in 2000 (with others) for David Justice. Justice went to the Mets for Robin Ventura, who was himself later traded to the Dodgers for Wilson Betemit. Betemit went to Chicago in the Swisher trade, and while Swisher declined his qualifying offer and seems likely to leave, the Yankees will get a pick for him, so that should keep the deal alive for at least 2-3 more years.

In 1980, the Mets signed Terry Leach. Leach was traded to the Cubs for Mitch Cook. Cook was part of a trade to Houston for Ray Knight. When Knight left, the Mets received a draft pick that became Todd Hundley. Hundley was traded to the Dodgers for Roger Cedeno who (with Octavio Dotel) was dealt for Mike Hampton. David Wright was drafted with a pick received for Hampton.

Trivia note: the Glaus trade is still alive in Toronto. He was acquired, with Sergio Santos, for Orlando Hudson and Miguel Batista. Santos drifted out of the organization, but they traded Glaus to the Cards for Scott Rolen. Then they traded Rolen to the Reds for Encarnacion, Josh Roenicke, and Zach Stewart. Encarnacion's still with the team, Roenicke isn't, and Stewart was part of the trade that brought Colby Rasmus and some evanescent spare parts back.

Santos drifted out of the organization, failed as an infield prospect, converted to the mound, and came back to Toronto. The Santos traded with Glaus is the same Santos who started 2012 in the bullpen and ended the season on the DL.

I do wonder if there is a way to reach back to the Gillick years here (1994 or earlier)?

The Jays selected Al Woods in the expansion draft in 1977. They then traded him for Cliff Johnson in 82. When Johnson signed with the Rangers, the Jays then received Tom Henke as compensation. When Henke signed with the Rangers in 92, they selected Shannon Stewart with the compensation pick they received. Stewart was eventually traded for Bobby Keitly who then was traded for Ted Lilly. When Lilly signed with the Cubs, they used their compensation pick on Trystan Magnuson. The then traded Magnuson for current Jay Rajai Davis.

I like this signing for the Jays. I wrote a piece in which I argued that the big free agent OFs were out of their range but that they were in a perfect position to take a flyer on Melky Cabrera to fill their LF hole. The only downside was the possible PED backlash but their big splash trade already built up enough goodwill.

The only hole in the line up yet is at first base unless otherbToronto fans think David Cooper is ready to step in.

Always fun following trades from start to finish. Right now my favorite is following Dustin McGowan if you get creative.
McGowan was drafted by the Jays in the 1st round of 2000's draft as a compensation pick for losing Graeme Lloyd. Lloyd was acquired in the Roger Clemens trade, and Clemens was signed as a free agent in 1997 by GM Gord Ash. Thus one legacy (sorta) of the Ash era is still kicking and if McGowan can make a comeback this year then Clemens being signed could be bringing returns still as he gets voted on for the HOF.

Of course, McGowan was an Ash draft pick, last one standing in the Jays' organization, so he'd be a legacy of the Ash era anyway.

The Jays selected Al Woods in the expansion draft in 1977. They then traded him for Cliff Johnson in 82. When Johnson signed with the Rangers, the Jays then received Tom Henke as compensation. When Henke signed with the Rangers in 92, they selected Shannon Stewart with the compensation pick they received. Stewart was eventually traded for Bobby Keitly who then was traded for Ted Lilly. When Lilly signed with the Cubs, they used their compensation pick on Trystan Magnuson. The then traded Magnuson for current Jay Rajai Davis.

That would be awesome, but unfortunately, Stewart was drafted in June of 1992, when Henke was still a Blue Jay. Stewart was compensation for Tom Candiotti. Henke netted Chris Carpenter.