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Statistics and Australian Politics

Australian election 2010 resulted in a hung government. So far, Labor managed 74 seats (72 Labor, 1 independent and 1 Greens), Liberal and National Coalition got 73 seat. The remaining 3 are country independents. Either Labor or Liberal-National doesn’t have the magic number (76 seats, as a majority) to form a government, has to seduce 3 country independents to support.

There are 8 (2^3) possible permutations of 3 independents towards one of the parties, 1 X 3-0, 1X 0-3, 3X 1-2, 3X 2-1, out of the 8 possibilities, 5 possibilities will results a government (1 X 3-0, 1X 0-3, and 3X 2-1). The Labor has 4 chances to form a government (1X 3-0, 3X 2-1), while the Liberal-Nations has only on chance (1X 0-3). The odds for Labor is 4 to 1, or 1to 4 for Liberal. However, the chance that none of parties merge with more than 76 seats are 3 out of 8. It is very likely this will be ended tomorrow. By the way, the movie from John Marsden’s novel “Tomorrow when war began” starts screening now.

Sep 7 2010.

The results towards Labor was 2-1. The odds prevailed. Labor is is back in power. The Number never lies.

Julia Gillard is the first female Prime Minister in Australian history. Her media conference speech concluded with “let’s draw curtain and let sunshine in”