March 20, 2018

GOP still favored in CD2, but a rating shifts towards Dems

New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District isn’t the safe territory it used to be for Republicans, according to election handicappers.

Most experts have put the Republican stronghold in the “Likely Republican” category. This is both because of the national environment—there are many more competitive Republican seats compared to Democratic seats—and the fact that the incumbent is not running for reelection.

U.S. Rep. Steve Pearce is instead running for governor.

The Cook Political Report offers the most aggressive prediction. After the narrow victory by Democrat Conor Lamb in Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District, a district that Donald Trump won by 20 points in 2016, the outlet shifted the district and several others into the “Lean Republican” area.

Overall, The Cook Political Report sees a close race for control of the U.S. House.

“At the moment, President Trump’s low popularity and Democrats’ enthusiasm make a wave election quite possible and put the GOP’s majority at great risk,” the outlet wrote last week. “But given Republicans’ redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need to win control.”

Who will be running in November will be decided in June, which could change things. On the Republican side, State Rep. Yvette Herrell, former state party chair Monty Newman, former Department of Interior official Gavin Clarkson and former Gary Johnson campaign official Clayburn Griffin are running. On the Democratic side, Las Cruces water attorney Xochitl Torres Small will face U.S. Coast Guard veteran Madeline Hildebrandt.

All of the prognosticators rate New Mexico’s other two congressional districts as safe for Democrats in this election.

Pearce was first elected to the district in 2002, defeating Democratic State Sen. John Arthur Smith 56.2 percent to 43.7 percent. Republicans lost the seat in 2008 when Democrat Harry Teague defeated Republican Ed Tinsley when Pearce opted to run for U.S. Senate instead of another term in U.S. House. Pearce then won the district back in 2010, 55.4 percent to 44.6 percent over Teague.

Since then, Pearce has easily won reelection three times.

Other races in the district are also dominated by Republicans.

Trump outpaced Democrat Hillary Clinton in the district in 2016, according to numbers from Daily Kos Elections. He received 50.1 percent of the vote to Clinton’s 39.9 percent and Gary Johnson’s 8.1 percent. Mitt Romney also beat Barack Obama in the district in 2012, 51.7 percent to 44.9 percent.

Statewide elections also show a Republican lean, as no Democrat received more votes in the district than Republicans in 2014.

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After inspecting absentee ballots from the 2nd Congressional District’s most-populous county, Republican Yvette Herrell decided not to challenge the results of the election she lost to Democrat Xochitl Torres Small in November. Herrell announced the news Monday, the deadline to challenge the results.

A day after Republican Yvette Herrell closed the door on her 2018 campaign, she announced she would run for the seat again in 2020 and challenge Democrat Xochitl Torres Small, who narrowly defeated Herrell in November. "I'm running for Congress because I believe New Mexicans deserve a Representative who will work hard every day to keep growing our economy, safeguard our way of life from government overreach, and push for solutions and funding to protect our borders,” Herrell said.

U.S. Sen. Martin Heinrich says a former Donald Trump campaign chairman should testify in front of the Senate Intelligence Committee after reports of the former campaign official’s ties to Russia. Heinrich, a member of the committee, said that Paul Manafort must testify “and give the American people the answers they deserve.”
Heinrich cited an Associated Press report that Manafort “secretly worked for a Russian billionaire to advance the interests of Russian President Vladimir Putin a decade ago and proposed an ambitious political strategy to undermine anti-Russian opposition across former Soviet republics.”
Manafort worked for Oleg Deripaska, who is a close ally of Putin, for a reported $10 million a year contract.

Democrats swept statewide races on Election Day, and will control not just the governor’s office and all of the executive agencies, but also independent state agencies that oversee everything from state funds to state lands. Democratic incumbent Tim Eichenberg easily won the race for State Treasurer over Republican Arthur Castillo and Democrat Brian Colón defeated Republican Wayne Johnson for State Auditor.

Women dominated contested congressional races in the Democratic and Republican primaries on Tuesday. Former Democratic Party of New Mexico Chairwoman Deb Haaland won the 1st Congressional District Democratic primary election late Tuesday night.

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Matthew Reichbach is the editor of the NM Political Report. The former founder and editor of the NM Telegram, Matthew was also a co-founder of New Mexico FBIHOP with his brother and one of the original hires at the groundbreaking website the New Mexico Independent. Matthew has covered events such as the Democratic National Convention and Netroots Nation and formerly published, “The Morning Word,” a daily political news summary for NM Telegram and the Santa Fe Reporter.
Matthew has appeared as a panelist for the Society of Professional Journalists’ New Mexico Chapter’s panel on covering New Mexico politics and the legislature.
A native New Mexican from Rio Rancho, Matthew’s family has been in New Mexico since the 1600s.