Final Score Power Index - an objective evaluation of NFL teams, based on final scores of games played.

Wednesday, January 18, 2012

NFL Conference Championship Picks

Game

APR

SRS

Line

Ravens @Patriots

Patriotsρ=1.0926

Patriotsδ=4.6

Patriots-7½

Giants @49ers

49ersρ=1.0549

49ersδ=4.3

49ers-2½

Comments:

The latest reports
are the
Ravens should have Ed Reed for their game against the
Patriots. They're probably going to need their defense at full
strength to come away with a win, especially the way the Ravens'
offense played against the Texans.

The Patriots are coming off their first playoff win in four
years, and if their defense can play as well against the Ravens as
they did against the Broncos, they should have a relatively easy
time advancing to the Super Bowl.

Last Sunday, the Giants seemed to have the upper hand over the
Packers for virtually the whole game. In spite of that, they were
only leading by 7 points at the start of the 4th quarter (and that
margin provided by what was basically a fluke touchdown).

The Giants will likely need a lot better production from their
offense to have a chance to beat the 49ers.

For the first 56 minutes, the 49ers offense had a very
unimpressive performance against the Saints. Just two drives
longer than 32 yards, and only 10 points off all those
turnovers.

But in the final 4 minutes of the game, Alex Smith managed to
produce, by a good margin, the 49ers two best drives of the game.
Both 80+ yards in length, and both ending in touchdowns. It will
make it a lot easier for he 49ers to come away with a win if their
offense can play more like those last 4 minutes, and less like the
first 56.

Given the way the Giants and 49ers offenses both played last
Sunday, it seems very likely that the winner of their matchup will
be determined by which defense can win the turnover battle.