Last week
the Shirley Forecasting System was fairly close in predicting a lower-scoring
Tide offense, but underestimated the surging Tide defense and its ability to
thwart the Rebel offense. But at least we didn't follow the crowd who thought
the Tide would put 40 points on one of the best defenses in the conference.
This week may be more difficult to predict, but for a different reason. The
lack of depth and rash of injuries at South Carolina makes it hard to even know
what team will be on the field. The analysis this week will be a bit thin, as
its hard to know what's going on with the Gamecocks and because my herniated
disk is driving me nuts.

The Disclaimer: Once again, this is a
FAN BLOG, not a news report. As a way to make a comparison of each key part of
the game, we use a 100 point "must" system like boxing, and the best team must
receive 10 points in that category. The other team can receive from one to
nine. This is my own system, and it's completely unscientific.

Week 7, Bama
vs. The Gamecocks:

1.Quarterback--Greg
McElroy continues to put up significant numbers despite a drop in his
passing efficiency. He hits lots of targets, and let's hope he is not tempted
by fan complaints to try too hard this week to include Julio in the game when he's double covered. Last
week it appeared that the plan (his? Or the coaches?) was to force the ball to
Julio, and it was almost a disaster. I do have to mention that Julio was unselfish and had at least two key blocks.

Stephen
Garcia is having a similar year to Greg--Garcia set a record for
completions without an interception, while Greg set a record for consecutive
completions. Both complete 61% of their passes. Both have 9 TDs. Greg's
efficiency rating is slightly higher at 146 (vs. Garcia at 134). Both gain just
over 200 yards.

So what's
the difference? I'll give Greg a very slight edge for his efficiency rating,
and total offense of 444 vs. Garcia earning 370 yards a game.

Score: Bama 10/ Gamecocks 9

2.Running backs and receivers

Mark Ingram
is beginning to separate himself from the pack, although I haven't forgotten Trent
Richardson's 52-yard run that will go down in history are one of the greatest
runs of all time. Mark's 110 yards per game with a six-yard average is hard to
match.

SCs top
three runners together gain 112 yards per game, with Miles, Giles and Maddox
splitting time.

Score: Bama 10/ Gamecocks 8

3.O-line

Bama's o-line has established itself, while South Carolina's
line is suspect and uneven. Alabama gains 223 per game versus 152 for SC. And
SC's 4th quarter scoring (23 points) is its worst part of the game, so their line has not been able
to wear down a team and take control. Bama has scored 53 in the 4th,
for comparison.

Score: Bama 10/ Gamecocks 7

4.D-line and backers

This is one area where these teams are close in some ways,
though not across the board. SC is fourth in the SEC in Total D, giving up 280
yards, to Bama's 2nd place ranking and 220 yards.

Don't get mad, Bama fans, but LB Eric Norwood for SC is in
the same league with Rolando McClain. He's fast, a leader, and has six sacks to
boot as the SEC leader. Pair him with DE Cliff Matthews (tied for second in sacks in the SEC) and a QB
better watch his backside. The other DE position also carries its weight with
Clifton Geathers, another one that is fun to watch unless he's after your guy.

Of course, Bama has the number 5
sack leader (Dareus), #6 (Arenas), and #14 (Anders) so we match well in sack
potential. Through in Bama's depth and McClain's performance and leadership and
Bama gets the nod.

Score: Bama 10/ Gamecocks 9

5.Defensive secondary

Again, somewhat evenly matched. SC gives up 151 yards in the air to Bama's
154. But Bama's depth, schemes, speed and linebacker mentality in the hitting
of Barron, Woodall and Arenas give them an edge as they make receivers pay.

Score: Bama 10/ Gamecocks 9

6.Depth

Lots of rumors are floating around about injuries at SC, and
Bama's depth is becoming a factor in almost every facet of every game. Little analysis
needed here.

Score: Bama 10/ Gamecocks 8

7.Kicking game

Tiffin is 14 of 16 in field goals, while his rival Spencer
Lanning is 10 of 11. Spencer punts for 42 yards to match PJ Fitzgerald's 42
yard average. Alabama is a woeful 9th in net kickoffs, but
fortunately for the Tide SC is even worse in 11th place in the SEC
with a 38 yard net average. So how do we pick a winner? I give the edge to
Javier Arenas's17 yard punt return average as the difference.

Score: Bama 10/ Gamecocks 9

8.Coaching staff

Hard to go against Coach Spurrier, who is a master with an
offense but always seems to find a good defense as well. But if you compare the
staff top to bottom and look at the magnificent game plans Coach Nick Saban's
staff has put together this year, they get a tiny edge their way.

Score: Bama 10/ Gamecocks 9

9.Game site

South Carolina's one loss came on the road, though they
played Georgia very well and scored 37 points. Spurrier knows the league and is
not intimidated on the road, so he can get his guys ready. Fans are expecting a
win and may not be that pumped up. Spurrier takes some of the home advantage
away.

Score: Bama 10/ Gamecocks 9

10.Intangibles

The Tide holds the ball an average of 34 minutes, giving it
an eight minute advantage. That translates into at least one or two drives.
Bama also averages some 70 yards more than SC in total offense. The Tide also
holds opponents to 12.5 points, compared with 18 points SC gives up. But remember
three of those low scoring games were SC State (I-AA team), NC State (3-3
record), and FAU (0-4 record) the stat seems less important.

Score: Bama 10/ Gamecocks 8

The bottom line

Final rating tallies 100-85, which translates to a final
score of: Bama 39/ Gamecocks 17.