CFB Week 10 Grades

Our game grades are intended to allow for an apples-to-apples comparison between team performances each week. They control for home field and (expected) strength of opponent, are situationally weighted (i.e. garbage time is de-valued), and look at the statistics most predictive of future performance. In short, the grades measure how teams played in the areas of the game that matter from a predictive standpoint. Percentile rating and score diff are measured relative to historical norms over the past 12 seasons.

The big surprise this week is that LSU slots in as the number two team, despite losing by two touchdowns to Alabama. I think this is great, because it shows how much context matters. Why isn’t Alabama higher than LSU? We’re not saying Alabama played worse statistically than LSU — they didn’t. But LSU had to face Alabama, the best team in the country. And Alabama had an easier task in playing LSU on the road.

Rufus Peabody is a sports analyst and professional sports bettor, currently traveling the world on Remote Year. He is a 2008 graduate of Yale University, where he wrote his senior thesis on inefficiencies in the baseball betting market. Mr. Peabody was previously ESPN's 'predictive analytics expert' and many, many years ago got his start in the industry working as a statistical analyst for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.