This year, last year; a comparison of progress

In this article, I would like to have a look at the top teams from last season and compare the results and standings for this season. I know this has been covered a couple of times before now and this is not to take away from the others but I have been compiling data for a while now and have used a more detailed format covering more teams.

My idea for this actually came about last season when five games into the season, we were 7 points down compared to the previous season and pretty much every other blog / site was claiming disaster at Arsenal because of this 7 points down compared to 5 games into the previous season.

The trouble was, these articles all overlooked the fact that we had just played Newcastle, Man Utd and Liverpool yet 5 games in the season before, we had only played Liverpool out of the so called top sides. If they had looked at the result for the same fixtures and compared them, we were only 1 point down on the previous season.

Don’t get me wrong, I would have preferred a better start to last season but in all truth, things were not as bad as made out to be. We lost away to Man U in 10/11 and 11/12, we drew to Newcastle in both and I have compared West Ham to Swansea based on their finishing positions (West Ham 20th in Premier League for 10/11, Swansea 3rd in Championship for 10/11).

In the case of relegated / promoted teams for last season, I have used the result from the alternative fixture based on the following:-

Finishing Positions 11/12 Season

Championship

Premiership

Reading

1st

18th

Bolton

Southampton

2nd

19th

Blackburn

West Ham

3rd

20th

Wolves

So first let’s take a look at the team by team figures, starting with the current champions:-

Man City

Last Season

This Season

Blackburn

H

3-0

3

Southampton

H

3-2

3

Liverpool

A

1-1

1

Liverpool

A

2-2

1

QPR

H

3-2

3

QPR

H

3-1

3

Stoke

A

1-1

1

Stoke

A

1-1

1

Arsenal

H

1-0

3

Arsenal

H

1-1

1

Fulham

A

2-2

1

Fulham

A

1-2

3

Sunderland

H

3-3

1

Sunderland

H

3-0

3

TOTAL POINTS

13

TOTAL POINTS

15

Man City have seen an improvement on last year on both points and a +2 goal difference so overall we can say an improvement there.

Moving on to the red side of Manchester we see a 1 point drop based on the equivalent games last year dropping 3 at Everton and picking up 2 at Liverpool.

Man Utd

Last Season

This Season

Everton

A

0-1

3

Everton

1-0

A

0

Fulham

H

1-0

3

Fulham

3-2

H

3

Blackburn

A

0-2

3

Southampton

2-3

A

3

Wigan

H

5-0

3

Wigan

4-2

H

3

Liverpool

A

1-1

1

Liverpool

1-2

A

3

Tottenham

H

3-0

3

Tottenham

2-3

H

0

Newcastle

A

3-0

0

Newcastle

0-3

A

3

TOTAL POINTS

16

TOTAL POINTS

15

Now on to Arsenal, we see a slight drop in points when looking at the equivalent fixtures. This season to last we are 2 points less.

Arsenal

Last Season

This Season

Sunderland

H

2-1

3

Sunderland

H

0-0

1

Stoke

A

1-1

1

Stoke

A

0-0

1

Liverpool

A

1-2

3

Liverpool

A

2-0

3

Blackburn

H

7-1

3

Blackburn

H

6-1

3

Man City

A

1-0

0

Man City

A

1-1

1

Chelsea

H

0-0

1

Chelsea

H

1-2

0

West Ham

A

0-3

3

West Ham

A

1-3

3

TOTAL POINTS

14

TOTAL POINTS

12

Moving on to Spurs, this year sees the same drop in points for them but that may be expected to a degree as they had a good start and were going to win the league last season but ended up changing their minds.

Tottenham

Last Season

This Season

Newcastle

A

2-2

1

Newcastle

A

2-1

0

West Brom

H

1-0

3

West Brom

H

1-1

1

Norwich

H

1-2

0

Norwich

H

1-1

1

Bolton

A

1-4

3

Bolton

A

1-3

3

QPR

H

3-1

3

QPR

H

2-1

3

Man Utd

A

2-3

3

Man Utd

A

2-3

3

Aston Villa

H

2-0

3

Aston Villa

H

2-0

3

TOTAL POINTS

16

TOTAL POINTS

14

Newcastle also had a real good start to last season but this season is a real disappointing 7 points down which is a shame as I personally like Pardew for what he has achieved on limited budgets and would have him as national coach over any other in England, downside is I find he moans a lot. Anyway, here is Newcastle:-

Newcastle

Last Season

This Season

Tottenham

H

2-2

1

Tottenham

A

2-1

3

Chelsea

A

0-2

3

Chelsea

H

0-2

0

Aston Villa

H

2-1

3

Aston Villa

H

1-1

1

Everton

A

3-1

0

Everton

A

2-2

1

Norwich

H

1-0

3

Norwich

H

1-0

3

Bolton

A

0-2

3

Bolton

A

2-2

1

Man Utd

H

3-0

3

Man Utd

H

0-3

0

TOTAL POINTS

16

TOTAL POINTS

9

Our South London rivals show that although money can’t buy you love, it can eventually buy you some points. I suppose only time will tell how long it buys you points before having to go out and spend it all again.

Chelsea

Last Season

This Season

Wigan

A

1-1

1

Wigan

A

0-2

3

Bolton

H

3-0

3

Bolton

H

4-2

3

Newcastle

H

0-2

0

Newcastle

H

2-0

3

QPR

A

1-0

0

QPR

A

0-0

1

Stoke

A

0-0

1

Stoke

A

1-0

3

Arsenal

A

0-0

1

Arsenal

A

1-2

3

Norwich

H

2-1

3

Norwich

H

4-1

3

TOTAL POINTS

9

TOTAL POINTS

19

Everton, another well respected team have seen a little improvement for this season. Everton are a team who receive little praise but have made continuous impressive achievements on a real shoe-string budget.

Everton

Last Season

This Season

Man Utd

H

0-1

0

Man Utd

H

1-0

3

Aston Villa

A

1-1

1

Aston Villa

A

1-3

3

West Brom

A

0-1

3

West Brom

A

2-0

0

Newcastle

A

3-1

3

Newcastle

A

2-2

1

Swansea

H

0-2

3

Swansea

H

0-3

3

Blackburn

H

1-1

1

Blackburn

H

3-1

3

Wigan

A

1-1

1

Wigan

A

2-2

1

TOTAL POINTS

12

TOTAL POINTS

14

And finally, Liverpool. They had an awful start last season, much worse than Arsenal (but if you were reading the papers last year you wouldn’t know it). Their poor start was matched only by Chelsea, the difference between the two being Chelsea have seen an improvement whereas Liverpool have further declined. One wonders how long they can hang on to their past glories to be taken seriously.

Liverpool

Last Season

This Season

West Brom

A

0-2

3

West Brom

A

3-0

0

Man City

H

1-1

1

Man City

H

2-2

1

Arsenal

H

1-2

0

Arsenal

H

0-2

0

Sunderland

A

1-0

0

Sunderland

A

1-1

1

Man Utd

H

1-1

1

Man Utd

H

1-2

0

Norwich

A

0-3

3

Norwich

A

2-5

3

Stoke

H

0-0

1

Stoke

H

0-0

1

TOTAL POINTS

9

TOTAL POINTS

6

One should also take into account who has played more of the top teams and combine this with the difference in points from this year / last year.

Team

No of top 8 teams
faced so far

+/- Points this year / Last Year

Chelsea

2

10

Man City

2

2

Everton

2

2

Man Utd

4

-1

Arsenal

3

-2

Tottenham

2

-2

Liverpool

3

-3

Newcastle

4

-7

So overall the big hitters are Chelsea who have seen the best improvement whilst the rest of the league slowly catches up with the rest of us, the closest match to the Chelsea 10 point increase being the Newcastle 7 point drop.

Chelsea are still unbeaten this season and going strong whilst Arsenal are 2 points down on our ‘worst ever season’. I think it is fair to say Liverpool are well and truly on the decline but I wonder if this will get picked up by the media.

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Nice analysis, but please iron out the mistakes (The Tottyham results are not matching neither in total nor in reality – they did not beat MU last year, and some of the Home and Away naming is inconsistent – see Newcastle).

Grande – the simple answer is no – the articles here are copyright Untold Arsenal, and cannot be reproduced except with fair usage (meaning putting a short quote in and linking to the original article). If you have a special proposal in mind please write to me at Tony.Attwood@aisa.org

Yes, I missed a couple of things when I proof read it. I have double checked and the scores and points for Newcsatle are correct but just got home and away boxes mixed up on a couple of the games. The comparative data is correct though.

With regard to Tottenham, yes there is an incorrect score so I apologise. I have ammended my database and hope to have a future edition out (if they let me) where this correction will show up.

All the data except points totals is manually entered so the mistakes are human error I am currently in process of migrating the data into a new spreadsheet which can automatically calculate goal differences etc… That is going to be a while coming yet as I’m still promoting the ref reviews for new referee candidates.

However, we also know that Arsenal avoid paying top level star wages and tend to reward squad players more highly than other clubs. We calculate Arsenal’s recent “wage equality ratio” – WER – to be 5:1. We’re defining WER as the multiple paid to the top earning player compared to the low-end squad members, with the WER at most top clubs being over 10. This is a policy the AST have questioned, especially when it seems to leave the club burdened with players they then struggle to move on. Interestingly Ivan Gazidis’ view on changing this policy seems to be in flux too. In June at the AST Q&A he was quite clear we’d move gradually towards paying a higher WER (top wages to top players) but then reiterated the previous position in his media interviews in mid-September that this was not Arsène’s way.

MY THOUGHTS:

The reasoning behind the assertion that Arsenal’s equitable wage distribution is not effecient is defective.
I will illustrate this using a benchmark supplied by some advocates of the inflated wages for top talent players brigade.

It is claimed that the WER at most top clubs is about 10:1
And there is a standard PL squad size of 25.
If we add on about 10 more players in the U21 category who are on the fringes of the first team (I’m assuming these are the lowest earners being referred to) this makes on the average 35 players on the rosta responsible for over 90% of the wage bill.

Now, lets assume the highest earners are 5 players, the medium earners (who actually form the bulk of the squad) are 20 and the lowest income earners are 10, now I’ll do a quick distribution using a standard wage for a low income earner which I’ll represent with a value called x. I’ll also make an assumption that medium income earners in the club earn an amount midway between 1/2 and 1/4 (using an approx 40% to simplify maths) of what the top earners earn.

I’ll admit this distribution is quite arbitrary but I’ll challenge those who came up with this metric to give a more valid distribution of wages. Factors I’ve considered in coming up with this distribution include effect of injuries, number of matches/competition and the all important fact a lot of people seem to miss that football is a team game where 11 of 35 players in the squad have to consistently be on the pitch in order to have any chance of success.

Now, lets flesh this out and get some ratios and real life figures that make some sense.

Now, lets assume that the Arsenal board is full of people who believe our WER should be 10:1 with the top earners (but still have to work to the same wage bill we already have) and decide to halve the amount of wages being paid to the lowest earners, this would save 50% of 16.12m which is approx about 9m and lets assume this goes to the top tier of earners, 42.3m + 9m = 51m, this is still less than the amount being paid to United’s top tier of earners and might we remind ourselves what United won last season again? NOTHING (I derived some pleasure writing that by the way).

The flip side (which the AST analyst has missed) is that:

1. If you increase the wages of the top tier of earners, there will be an upward pressure from the middle tier of earners which is actually the larges cost centre of wages and the quality of which is what guarantees sustained success and not ‘flash in the pan’ cup wins. This analyst might not know it, but there is a very good reason why there is a differential of about 20m between the wage bill of Arsenal and Manchester United (which has the least wage bill of the 3 clubs that seem to consistently finish above arsenal).

2. If you decrease the amount spent on these low earners, you miss out on keeping your young top talent (e.g Cesc, Nasri, RVP, Song, Adebayor) who have since been sold off for profit largely to offset the three pronged challenges listed below:

a. Operational losses due to an already large wage bill occasioned by the upward pressure on wages from none football related expenditure (which has led to the agitation for FFP)
b. Additional expenses due to paying off the cost of building the stadium
c. Income limitation due to the front loading of contracts to obtain adequate initial start up funds to get the stadium project off the ground.

CONCLUSION:
Our wage bill structure is not inefficient in anyway even though like everything else in life has room for improvement, some point to the fact that we have some players on the books we’d rather move on but this is not unique to Arsenal. An Example is Man City effectively paying off Adebayor so that he can go and play for Tottenham. We, don’t pay off such players but keep them around (and some of them do come around to show they still have some life left in them e.g. Arshavin and Chamakh in the recent Capital One cup game) or charge loan fees for them (2.9 million in the last year came from such fees).

@Stuart good read, but i understand what your trying to do but i believe you cannot compare Reading and Southampton with Bolton and Blackburn (West Ham and Wolves you can get away with), I know Bolton are/have changed the way they play, however the southern clubs will have a go at trying to beat us, Not just trying to beat us up in and around their own penalty area. Maybe it would have been easier to omit their results from your study? This is in no way a criticism just an observation.
Is your conclusion that we need to improve.

Hi Adam,
Yes I had considered this however it would have meant comparing 6 games of one team to 7 of another as not all teams will play the same amount of games against the newly promoted teams… I also considered looking at the performance against the three promoted teams the previous season but felt that is too far back.

I decided to go with swapping relegated / promoted based on their actual standings (highest ranked relegated team for highest ranked promoted etc..) as I couldn’t think of another way.

Not really sure of a conclusion just yet as the difference is marginal. I don’t think Arsenal have deteriorated, instead I believe Arsenal and other teams have hit a peak and the others are catching up but we’ll see.