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GOP eyes the Slaughterhouse Five

The DCCC has already pulled its ads for Ohio Rep. Steve Driehaus. |
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This cycle may well be a reversal of 2006, when Democrats made gains after several late-breaking challenges, even if not in the same seats.

“You’re going to see people winning this time that have no business winning,” said Republican strategist Nelson Warfield, who worked on Doug Hoffman’s two campaigns in the North Country-based 23rd District, a district held by Rep. Bill Owens that’s now among the tossups.

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Another top race is in the 20th District, where Rep. Scott Murphy — whose seat once belonged to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, who won it in an ugly race with GOP Rep. John Sweeney in 2006 — is locked in a tight battle with Republican Chris Gibson, a military veteran.

Democrats insist privately that fewer than four seats are likely to flip — still a significant delegation overhaul. But many argue that some of the GOP candidates viewed as competitive won’t ultimately be that tough to fend off on Nov. 2 because of their business histories or first-time candidate mistakes.

Working against the GOP are several factors, including the two-week-long public messiness of the Carl Paladino campaign at the top of the ticket, which some campaign insiders said was starting to show up in their candidates’ polling.

“I think all politics is local, and the national races are local in that sense,” said state GOP Chairman Ed Cox. “And that’ll be separated from the governor’s race.”

But there are those local factors, the biggest of which is the Democrats’ massive cash advantage in its coordinated campaign, as well as get-out-the-vote help from union operatives and others.

And some of the Democrats are stronger than they may seem. For instance, in the Staten Island-based 13th District, Republican Michael Grimm could be helped by turnout for Staten Island District Attorney Dan Donovan, currently the nominee for attorney general, but he is massively outgunned in money by incumbent Rep. Mike McMahon.

Pennsylvania

Democrats face a worst-case scenario of losing as many as eight seats in Pennsylvania, spread across the breadth of the state.

“They’re always going to be competitive districts,” said Larry Ceisler, a Democratic consultant, recalling a 2000 redistricting process that produced GOP-friendly districts across the state. “This doesn’t surprise me in the least.”

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has pulled its TV advertising in support of Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper, a freshman Democrat who faces an uphill reelection race. And two public polls conducted over the past month show Rep. Paul Kanjorski at about 40 percent — dangerous territory for an incumbent — and trailing GOP challenger Lou Barletta.

Democrats also face a difficult path to victory in the suburban Philadelphia-based 7th District, where the party is trying to hold the seat of Rep. Joe Sestak, who is running for the Senate. In addition to that open seat, Reps. Chris Carney, Patrick Murphy and Mark Critz face competitive races; Rep. Tim Holden needs to be vigilant in his Republican-leaning district, though he is thought to be in much better shape than his colleagues.

“This will be a really tough test,” said T.J. Rooney, a former Pennsylvania Democratic Party chairman who served in the state Legislature. “There’s no question that we occupy some very conservative districts.”

Rooney was quick to point out that many of the Democrats facing tough races — a list that includes Dahlkemper, Murphy and Carney — won conservative-minded seats in the more favorable election cycles of 2006 and 2008.

“If anybody thought we were going to replicate our success over the last couple of cycles, they were wrong,” said Rooney.

Nice to see folks in these blue states waking up to the nightmare the Dems have created with the help of the SEIU and others. Now if only my state of Cali can pull their head out and elect some conservatives I'd have some hope for our future.

Corporate American is mad that they will have to quit their wild, irresponsible investing and betting against American mortgages they sold American consumers on. They want the Wild Wild West days of America back -- the days that sent our economy into the Great Republican Recession of October 2008, the days that saw us bleed over 700,000 jobs a month and lose over 7 million so far. To that end, they are pouring anonymous millions into Republican races, for Republicans want to do away with the new, sane regulations and want to do away with tax impediments to shipping American jobs overseas and do away with corporate taxes on corporations making tens of billions in profits annually. Republicans think "the people who own the country should be running the country" (and they are not talking about us).

Nice pic accompanying the article of a Burns (Republican) campaign worker placing his signs in a way that obscure those of his opponent, which were already there. Not sure this is illegal, but it is certainly unethical. Tells you all you need to know about Burns. What a sleaze ...

THANK YOU MR. PRESIDENT FOR NOT TALKING ABOUT THE ISSUESIT WOULD REALLY BE HARD FOR US TO JUSTIFY RE-ELECTING ANY DEMOCRATS President Barack Obama attacked Republicans with gusto Monday as he plunged into a final week of midterm election campaigning, but his party's prognosis remained darkened by the feeble economy and his itinerary was designed largely to minimize losses. Nor was his greeting totally friendly in Rhode Island where Obama has pointedly declined to endorse his party's candidate for governor.

Corporate American is mad that they will have to quit their wild, irresponsible investing and betting against American mortgages they sold American consumers on. They want the Wild Wild West days of America back -- the days that sent our economy into the Great Republican Recession of October 2008, the days that saw us bleed over 700,000 jobs a month and lose over 7 million so far. To that end, they are pouring anonymous millions into Republican races, for Republicans want to do away with the new, sane regulations and want to do away with tax impediments to shipping American jobs overseas and do away with corporate taxes on corporations making tens of billions in profits annually. Republicans think "the people who own the country should be running the country" (and they are not talking about us).