THE 2002 CAMPAIGN: MISSOURI

THE 2002 CAMPAIGN: MISSOURI; X-Factor May Provide the Edge in a Close Senate Race

By DAVID FIRESTONE

Published: November 1, 2002

KANSAS CITY, Mo., Oct. 31—
When Senator Jean Carnahan mentioned the death of Paul Wellstone at a boisterous labor rally this week, the Teamsters hall went silent, and not just out of respect for his memory. The crowd seemed to lean forward, as if morbidly wondering whether she would actually bring up the uneasy parallel between Mr. Wellstone's plane crash and the one that took her husband's life days before his election to the Senate two years ago.

As it turned out, she simply praised Mr. Wellstone's principles and did not invoke the name of her husband, Gov. Mel Carnahan. But by then she did not need to. Within hours of the crash on Friday, newspapers and broadcasts around Missouri had seized on the similarities to wonder about her gut reaction and that of voters, speculating about whether it would generate a sympathy vote for her in the final days of an exceptionally close race.

So she was ready when asked about it afterward, unflinching in confronting a question that goes to the heart of her presence in the Senate and her political and personal identity.

''It does cause a lot of images from two years ago to come back, and a lot of thoughts that you thought you had gone past,'' she said carefully, outwardly poised during an interview while the fingers of her hands, clasped behind her back, worked furiously. ''But you realize how fragile life is, and how much people who serve do sacrifice, as Paul did. But I think people are going to judge this election on my record.''

This particular Senate election, however, is too close, and too closely watched, to turn on mundane matters like voting records. The race was already burdened with psychological freight before the Minnesota crash, as voters saw Ms. Carnahan's face on the commercials and remembered again that her public persona was born in tragedy two years before, when she was appointed to the seat her husband had won. Her Republican opponent, former Representative Jim Talent, has made her lack of experience one of his chief slogans, and whenever he does so it serves as a reminder that she has never been elected to office, never before this season had to bring a crowd to its feet or defend her beliefs in a debate.

Now this race, so close that it prevents any reliable prediction on the control of the next Senate, has become a collection of precariously balanced X-factors, any one of which could nudge a winner past the tape. Debate gestures, the president's popularity, and death have eclipsed policy positions as strategists weigh the consequences of unpredictable events.

''I think the Wellstone factor will be a net negative for her,'' said Ernie Blazar, an adviser for the state Republican Party who is working with the Talent campaign. ''It will remind everyone in Missouri that she was appointed to the Senate and that she doesn't have the experience Jim Talent has.''

Republican strategists also said that the death on Sunday of Mr. Talent's father at 91 would serve to counter any sympathy directed toward Ms. Carnahan.

At the same time, voters here are still talking about the moment in last week's debate when Ms. Carnahan appeared to get angry at Mr. Talent's criticism of her votes on the Homeland Security Department, accusing him of questioning her patriotism and wagging her finger at him in a schoolmarmish scolding. ''I don't want you to do it again,'' she told him.

Ms. Carnahan, 68, has focused the bulk of her campaign on classic Democratic themes, reminding voters of her defense of Social Security and a Medicare prescription drug plan. Struggling to expand her base beyond the manufacturing workers and city dwellers who long supported her husband, she has also noted that she voted for President Bush's tax cut; and she has done some skeet shooting for the cameras, though she favors regulation of handguns and a ban on assault weapons.

Mr. Talent, 46, has fashioned a campaign around the goals of President Bush, questioning why Ms. Carnahan did not support the president's version of a Homeland Security Department or his desire to drill for oil in the Alaskan wilderness. He regularly criticizes Ms. Carnahan for voting against the confirmation of Attorney General John Ashcroft -- the man Governor Carnahan was running against in 2000.

The most recent independent polls show the race too close to call, with Mr. Talent, who served for eight years in the House, having closed an earlier gap through repeated appearances with Mr. Bush. (Vice President Dick Cheney joined him at an airport rally in Cape Girardeau today.)

Mr. Talent clearly had the greater momentum in the last month, and several leading state Democrats had spoken publicly about Ms. Carnahan's lackluster campaign style. Some analysts of the race, however, said Ms. Carnahan had won new strength in recent days with a more sharply focused effort and good debate performances.

''Carnahan needed to hold her own in the debates, to show people that she was up to a job that she seemed to have by accident, and she did that,'' said David Webber, a political science professor at the University of Missouri-Columbia.

The issue that has made the race a focus of national attention -- its pivotal role in determining the control of the Senate -- rarely comes up in either candidate's remarks. Though surrogates regularly talk about it, both candidates insist that they try not to think about why the nation is so closely following their progress.

''I understand why it's so important to everyone else -- after all, you wouldn't be covering this race if the Senate were 60-40,'' he said in an interview on Wednesday. ''But I've been a backbencher, I've been in the leadership, and I think I can be effective in any of those capacities. I'm just running to be a senator from Missouri.''