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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast. Can May win the ‘meaningful vote and what happens if she doesn’t?’

On this week’s podcast the Polling Matters team, including the returning Rob Vance, discuss evolving public opinion on May’s Brexit deal and what happens if she does not win the ‘meaningful vote’ next month.

To be fair, I wonder if the RAF would be in any better place. The long-haul VIP jets are just moonlighting from their day jobs as tankers, so if the one taking the PM to a conference went tech they too might be hard pressed to rustle up a replacement. In fact, is May even taking a RAF plane? Usually for these sorts of thing they charter from BA or fly scheduled.

The take away here is, because the time zone difference is small, and despite any memories of the task force taking a long time to reach these parts, we tend to not realise quite how far away Buenos Aires is.

As I stand by my globe, I can span London-Tokyo with my forefinger and thumb, if I span from Cape Town, I reach Paris, from Singapore I am approaching Munich. From Buenos Aires, I am still only off the Iberian North African Islands, specifically Madeira.

It's not quite as far away as Bali, but not far off.

That is a big tiring trip to make with May's current schedule - the legendary stamina of some PMs past would not go amiss.

Where is the data from? It's no surprise that M wins (which is one reason the Commons won't vote for an AV referendum pitting M vs N vs R), but I'm surprised that when N is eliminated 11/28 = 39% of its voteshare goes to R. What's the reason?

Surely she'll have to call off the vote if it's clear a 200 vote defeat is likely.

Why? A loss is a loss. Absent a miracle a loss is already assured. It's still important for parliament to clearly reject it. Everyone should be clear where everyone stands, Mps are let off the hook if they never even formally vote it down.

It's a farce if Mps don't even have to stand up and be counted on this, the only reasons for there not to have the vote have been political.

And it achieves what? If the EU is going to renegotiate after all they would be fools not to want to know how parliament voted on the current offer.

Where is the data from? It's no surprise that M wins (which is one reason the Commons won't vote for an AV referendum pitting M vs N vs R), but I'm surprised that when N is eliminated 11/28 = 39% of its voteshare goes to R. What's the reason?

OT. Just been for a days training on Universal Credit. Politics isn't over after Brexit. Slow Train Coming.

So tell us what you learnt and why it’s a slow train coming.

Will do tomorrow as I am off to bed. Some good, some bad. Will reveal all in the morning. Thanks for the interest. It is a slow train coming, as it will affect everyone on child or working tax credits. Pretty much the majority of working age people. It is a train as it is too far gone to turn round. It is slow, as managed migration has been postponed yet again.People don't like change.

Where is the data from? It's no surprise that M wins (which is one reason the Commons won't vote for an AV referendum pitting M vs N vs R), but I'm surprised that when N is eliminated 11/28 = 39% of its voteshare goes to R. What's the reason?

This is based on the pairwise preference in the Deltapolls published today. Remain beats MayDeal and NoDeal on a first preference basis, but MayDeal is the Condorcet winner (beats Remain and NoDeal), Remain is the Condorcet loser (Beaten by MayDeal and NoDeal).

May's deal is also the AV winner, able to sneak through on second prefs.

To be fair, I wonder if the RAF would be in any better place. The long-haul VIP jets are just moonlighting from their day jobs as tankers, so if the one taking the PM to a conference went tech they too might be hard pressed to rustle up a replacement. In fact, is May even taking a RAF plane? Usually for these sorts of thing they charter from BA or fly scheduled.

The take away here is, because the time zone difference is small, and despite any memories of the task force taking a long time to reach these parts, we tend to not realise quite how far away Buenos Aires is.

As I stand by my globe, I can span London-Tokyo with my forefinger and thumb, if I span from Cape Town, I reach Paris, from Singapore I am approaching Munich. From Buenos Aires, I am still only off the Iberian North African Islands, specifically Madeira.

It's not quite as far away as Bali, but not far off.

That is a big tiring trip to make with May's current schedule - the legendary stamina of some PMs past would not go amiss.

I did Heathrow to Buenos Aires with BA with a short service stop at Sao Paulo (we remained seated) - about 14 hours

Where is the data from? It's no surprise that M wins (which is one reason the Commons won't vote for an AV referendum pitting M vs N vs R), but I'm surprised that when N is eliminated 11/28 = 39% of its voteshare goes to R. What's the reason?

This is based on the pairwise preference in the Deltapolls published today. Remain beats MayDeal and NoDeal on a first preference basis, but MayDeal is the Condorcet winner (beats Remain and NoDeal), Remain is the Condorcet loser (Beaten by MayDeal and NoDeal).

May's deal is also the AV winner, able to sneak through on second prefs.

We were using the Schulze method, but we don't need to. When there's no Condorcet cycles, the complexity of Schulze isn't needed.

Where is the data from? It's no surprise that M wins (which is one reason the Commons won't vote for an AV referendum pitting M vs N vs R), but I'm surprised that when N is eliminated 11/28 = 39% of its voteshare goes to R. What's the reason?

Labour really needs Brexit to move on or die or something. Their position is a nonsense on that but Corbynism has a real fire and passion with many other issues.

When you hear some of the people calling for a No Deal Brexit you get the sense they really want a 'year zero' event domestically, never mind our relationship with the EU, so I can understand why Corbyn equivocates, but it's not leadership.

Pretty shoddy of Corbyn to choose a commercial TV station over a nationalised one. I think it's an excuse because of Corbyn's famed iinability to grasp detail. He's hoping ITV's commercial breaks will give him time to dust himself down between rounds

No - he doesn't want the debate at all. By opposing the BBC option, he is hoping it will just go away.

His posturing on this has been infantile.

Did they ask him about his favourite person in I'm a Celeb when he claimed he is lovin it on This Morning?

Remind me how many people have been prosecuted for FGM in this country.

' The number of girls in England who have experienced or are believed to be at risk of female genital mutilation (FGM) has more than doubled in a year, according to assessments by council social workers.

Analysis of government figures shows that FGM featured in 1,960 social work assessments in 2017-18 – more than twice the 970 cases reported in the previous year.

The figures were described as alarming by those working in the field, who said the increase was due mainly to better detection by social workers. Experts said the real incidence of FGM is likely to be far higher, however, as it remains a largely hidden crime. '

Liam Fox will follow Andrea Leadsom in endorsing Theresa May’s Brexit deal today, saying that her opponents do not have the “luxury” of an alternative plan.

The trade secretary will back Mrs May’s plan in a speech in the southwest that coincides with a YouGov poll for The Times suggesting that there has been a sharp rise in people who favour her compromise over a no-deal Brexit. However, more than a quarter of those who voted for Brexit in 2016 want MPs to reject the prime minister’s deal, even if it means remaining in the EU.

Dr Fox will use his speech to argue that Brexiteers must make tough choices. “The deal we’ve reached will give us a firm and stable base on which to leave the EU and build this country’s global future, a future that still encompasses Europe, of course, but also the wide fast-growing markets beyond, with all the opportunity that entails,” he says.

Polling for both the deal and the Tories has risen as May has stressed the deal controls immigration. May is trusted on the issue and Corbyn is not. The issue has fallen away as an issue as people felt confident it was sorted when we voted to leave the EU. Now people are pushing to stay in again, concern is rising.