Hurricane FABIO

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HURRICANE FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062012
200 PM PDT SUN JUL 15 2012
FABIO HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. SATELLITE
IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE
LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH A FEW BREAKS OR DRY
SLOTS EVIDENT OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. AN AVERAGE OF THE LATEST
DVORAK CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB YIELDS AN INITIAL WIND SPEED
ESTIMATE OF 85 KT. THE WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS FABIO MOVES OVER MUCH COLDER WATER
AND INTO A PROGRESSIVELY DRIER ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE...AND
BRINGS FABIO BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 3 WHEN IT
WILL BE OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 20C. DISSIPATION IS NOW
SHOWN AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
GLOBAL MODELS.
THE HURRICANE IS GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE RIGHT...AND THE LATEST
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/9. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD
CAUSING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BREAK DOWN. THIS STEERING PATTERN
SHOULD ALLOW FABIO TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD...AND THEN NORTHWARD OVER
THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A BIT TO THE
RIGHT...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE LATEST ECMWF RUN AND THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/2100Z 17.4N 118.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 18.0N 119.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 19.0N 120.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 20.2N 121.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 21.5N 121.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 24.4N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/1800Z 26.0N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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