Bitter Pills – Visit #4

Hi! Welcome back to the pHantasy pHarmacy, is there anything I can help you find today? Oh, you picked up another handful of players to help your teams health? Well let me break down all the side effects you may encounter while using this players. Remember to use your new players appropriately or you may get a burning sensation instead of that warm fuzzy feeling.

RX#: TE88

Player Name: Evan Engram

When this drug was released, it performed in its first year on the market like almost no other drug ever had in that category. We all remember the wild run of Shockey but that one peaked early, and ended up being associated in some street dealings. In his rookie season Engram garnered 115 targets, and turned that into 64 receptions for 722 yards and 6 touchdowns. He played the majority of that season as the only legitimate pass catching option on his team. Sometimes we take whatever medicine is the cabinet, even if its not exactly the cure for what ails us. This was illustrated by his horrendous 55.7% catch rate. He survived on volume alone. In his second season with the return of Odell Beckham Jr. and addition of Saquon Barkley to the regimen he dropped to 64 targets but increased his catch rate to 70.3%. It is often that we see higher volume leading to less efficient results.

This coming season Odell is gone, injuries abound already for the wide receiver corps and Engram stands looking to have a large target volume coming his way. But a major difference between his rookie season and this coming season is the addition of Barkley. Engram does not appear to be the dump off option. Furthermore, he is still tied to mediocre (at best) quarterback play. Engram may have another great year in volume but if his efficiency slips to 2017 levels and Saquon hogs what little touchdown production they have to go around he may leave you wishing you had bought a cheaper option.

RX#: WR13

Player Name: Odell Beckham Jr. (OBJ)

This particular drug is being marketed as one of the five best wide receiver options for your healthcare needs. The marketing is wonderful and some of the past studies (though often limited in scope) have shown fantastic results when using this particular medication. However, many of these studies were cut short due to unforeseen damage to the medication. This seems to happen often but here at the pHantasy pHarmacy we hate to say that certain pills just break more easily than others. That being said, he has only played a full season once his entire career.

For the majority of his career OBJ has also been the primary pass catching weapon on his team. Now he is sharing those duties with Jarvis Landry and David Njoku. Furthermore, the main argument for his boosted production is improved quarterback play, but he will also be on a more successful team. As such, there may be a propensity for the Browns to be more run heavy when they are in favorable game scripts more often than the Giants ever were. Then there is the problem of where this immense target load will come from. Top end fantasy wide receivers generally see at least 25% of the target share for their team. Jarvis Landry was already getting a target share in that range. Landry’s target share will obviously drop considerably with the addition of OBJ, but unless you project him to disappear entirely it is hard to project Odell to break that 25% threshold with much certainty.

Currently being taken as one of the first 5 wide receivers in most drafts, Odell Beckham Jr. stands the highest likelihood of those 5 to finish outside the top 10. This one will work well, but you may be upset at the steep price at the end of your treatment.

RX#: 26

Player Name: Lamar Miller

I would call this next medication old reliable, but it’s more accurate to call it Mr. Mediocrity. Since joining the Texans, he finished as running back 20 in 2016,16 in 2017, and 23 this past year in 2018. He is what he is, fair at most running back skill sets but not exceptional at any. Then we were worried about a drug interaction with D’Onta Foreman, even though that medication had limited supporting research and some negative injury related effects. So we got rid of the Foreman medication, and things looked clear for Lamar Miller to be the only running back on the treatment plan.

Another solid floor running back 2 season seemed to be in the works, but along comes a new prescription for Duke Johnson. At first glance, most of the specialists are not worried about any potential interaction but a further look is cause for concern. The physician claims its a safe combination because the Texans do not pass to the running back position very much. We said the same thing about Cam Newton, and then he got Christian McCaffrey. They have not had a running back in Houston with the pass catching ability and positional flexibility of Duke Johnson, and even Alfred Blue got over 170 combined touches out of the backfield last season. If Duke plays well enough there is room for a split, or even a chance they transition away from Miller since his patent expires next season. And let’s be honest, Miller is a pretty generic running back to begin with.

Thanks for stopping by the Phantasy Pharmacy. I hope you found everything you were looking for. Remember to swallow your pills no matter how bitter they are. You brought this on yourself.