If the US tactically nuke NK, any radiation that the winds blow risk harming neighbouring countries. And if China or Russia take a hit...we could be in for WW3.

Even conventional warfare could result in the destruction of SK.

Given that there are no good solutions, perhaps the time has come to give NK a seat at the big table, and sufficient trade for it to grow its economy. A more prosperous NK might be a less dangerous one.

Part of the deal could be to formally end the NK war, eliminating part of the driving force behind anti-Americanism.

It's a win for NK, as it becomes a full member of the global clubs.

The tricky part is how to make it a win for America. Perhaps President Trump negotiating the deal of the century, finally bringing peace to the Korean Peninsula, supported by selling a lot of American goodies to a new market.

If the US tactically nuke NK, any radiation that the winds blow risk harming neighbouring countries. And if China or Russia take a hit...we could be in for WW3.

Even conventional warfare could result in the destruction of SK.

Given that there are no good solutions, perhaps the time has come to give NK a seat at the big table, and sufficient trade for it to grow its economy. A more prosperous NK might be a less dangerous one.

Part of the deal could be to formally end the NK war, eliminating part of the driving force behind anti-Americanism.

It's a win for NK, as it becomes a full member of the global clubs.

The tricky part is how to make it a win for America. Perhaps President Trump negotiating the deal of the century, finally bringing peace to the Korean Peninsula, supported by selling a lot of American goodies to a new market.

Just an idle thought from a nobody.

I know more about, have spent more time in and am more invested in SK than anyone on this board,,,but please, do go on.

I think you over-estimate the technology and firepower available to NK. There is no way they have the ammunition, fuel, food and logistical backup to sustain any kind of incursion into SK, and they have no effective off-shore offensive capability. I also seriously doubt that they have any personnel with the initiative and willpower to sustain any kind of offensive action. Together with zero air-power, and no technological advantage what is it you think they are going to achieve?
The Iraqis were better trained and equipped in 1990/91 against 1980's western technology and look how that turned out. SK's biggest fear should be ending up having to take over and run NK and feed the population after a total collapse of the regime within a few short days of any aggression.

I think you over-estimate the technology and firepower available to NK. There is no way they have the ammunition, fuel, food and logistical backup to sustain any kind of incursion into SK, and they have no effective off-shore offensive capability. I also seriously doubt that they have any personnel with the initiative and willpower to sustain any kind of offensive action. Together with zero air-power, and no technological advantage what is it you think they are going to achieve?
The Iraqis were better trained and equipped in 1990/91 against 1980's western technology and look how that turned out. SK's biggest fear should be ending up having to take over and run NK and feed the population after a total collapse of the regime within a few short days of any aggression.

EJC, most of my news comes from The Economist, though have started reading South China Morning Post.

Tony:

1. It's well reported that after a surprise attack against NK, it would be difficult to stop an immediate devastating NK assault on Seoul. Assuming accurate analysis and resporting obviously.

2. What is to stop NK strapping a nuke onto a ww2 style one man mini submarine and idling its way (fuel reserves?) to Guam? Before doing a kami Kazi?

For me, the seriousness of it all aside I find it fascinating how the most excluded nation in our world seems to have outmanoeuvred global spooks.

I know how I think they have done it, and you can guess that easily without going there here. I could even, years ago now, do a PaulL and draw pictures. But hey ho no one ever listens to me.

Last edited by SloggingScotsman on Mon Sep 04, 2017 7:09 am; edited 1 time in total

The Donald obviously doesn't read Sun Tzu; I'm sure the grown-ups in his administration do though. Either way, countries like the US have ways and means to hamper technology projects in rogue states; they did it to Iran. Although NK exists in more of a vacuum than any other nation I can think of.
_________________25 Years since it all began....

I think you over-estimate the technology and firepower available to NK. There is no way they have the ammunition, fuel, food and logistical backup to sustain any kind of incursion into SK, and they have no effective off-shore offensive capability. I also seriously doubt that they have any personnel with the initiative and willpower to sustain any kind of offensive action. Together with zero air-power, and no technological advantage what is it you think they are going to achieve?
The Iraqis were better trained and equipped in 1990/91 against 1980's western technology and look how that turned out. SK's biggest fear should be ending up having to take over and run NK and feed the population after a total collapse of the regime within a few short days of any aggression.

I think you over-estimate the technology and firepower available to NK. There is no way they have the ammunition, fuel, food and logistical backup to sustain any kind of incursion into SK, and they have no effective off-shore offensive capability. I also seriously doubt that they have any personnel with the initiative and willpower to sustain any kind of offensive action. Together with zero air-power, and no technological advantage what is it you think they are going to achieve?
The Iraqis were better trained and equipped in 1990/91 against 1980's western technology and look how that turned out. SK's biggest fear should be ending up having to take over and run NK and feed the population after a total collapse of the regime within a few short days of any aggression.

EJC, most of my news comes from The Economist, though have started reading South China Morning Post.

Tony:

1. It's well reported that after a surprise attack against NK, it would be difficult to stop an immediate devastating NK assault on Seoul. Assuming accurate analysis and resporting obviously.

2. What is to stop NK strapping a nuke onto a ww2 style one man mini submarine and idling its way (fuel reserves?) to Guam? Before doing a kami Kazi?

For me, the seriousness of it all aside I find it fascinating how the most excluded nation in our world seems to have outmanoeuvred global spooks.

I know how I think they have done it, and you can guess that easily without going there here. I could even, years ago now, do a PaulL and draw pictures. But hey ho no one ever listens to me.

or perhaps the worlds intelligence organisations know exactly whats going on and that is in fact very little apart from sabre rattling and pretending they have capabilities that they don't.
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I think you over-estimate the technology and firepower available to NK. There is no way they have the ammunition, fuel, food and logistical backup to sustain any kind of incursion into SK, and they have no effective off-shore offensive capability. I also seriously doubt that they have any personnel with the initiative and willpower to sustain any kind of offensive action. Together with zero air-power, and no technological advantage what is it you think they are going to achieve?
The Iraqis were better trained and equipped in 1990/91 against 1980's western technology and look how that turned out. SK's biggest fear should be ending up having to take over and run NK and feed the population after a total collapse of the regime within a few short days of any aggression.

EJC, most of my news comes from The Economist, though have started reading South China Morning Post.

Tony:

1. It's well reported that after a surprise attack against NK, it would be difficult to stop an immediate devastating NK assault on Seoul. Assuming accurate analysis and resporting obviously.

2. What is to stop NK strapping a nuke onto a ww2 style one man mini submarine and idling its way (fuel reserves?) to Guam? Before doing a kami Kazi?

For me, the seriousness of it all aside I find it fascinating how the most excluded nation in our world seems to have outmanoeuvred global spooks.

I know how I think they have done it, and you can guess that easily without going there here. I could even, years ago now, do a PaulL and draw pictures. But hey ho no one ever listens to me.

or perhaps the worlds intelligence organisations know exactly whats going on and that is in fact very little apart from sabre rattling and pretending they have capabilities that they don't.

Hammerer, that is my hope.

Believe me in this case I would be happy to be proven wrong about my long held belief that NK has an active....intuitive...(that's me being tactful) programme that is running rings around the West, and which has enabled its progress.

Your point does however then beggar a second question. What value is there in such propaganda? Obviously NK gets to motivate its own people, but for America? Where is the win? Especially nowadays with people being more questioning and cynical about politicians?

Does NK have nukes? Does NK regularly get agents into SK (given SK are good at identifying such assassins and picking them up). How much more difficult would it be for them to strap a nuke onto an agent and get him into Guam?

To me the intercontental missile thing is a bit of a distraction. Look at what recently happened in Macau by a woman believed to be working for NK. Assassination made simple.

Just call me Mr worrier. But what really annoys me is that, if I am correct and not a loony, if people had only listened to me years ago.... no one can say that I didn't try to help.

How much more difficult would it be for them to strap a nuke onto an agent and get him into Guam?

NK's current technological aim is to miniaturise a Nuke so it can be strapped to a intercontinental ballistic missile. A rather powerful rocket capable of lifting a very heavy load to the edge of space, Their current weapons are too large and heavy to be attached to these rockets.

The latest device "may" be small enough for this purpose.

I'm not sure the hand luggage requirements on flights to Guam but I think the current 1000kg weapons might be a little conspicuous.

This is already getting faintly ridiculous. The NK regime is looking to use its nuclear capability as a lever, not to try an reenact the plot of The Fourth Protocol.
_________________25 Years since it all began....