Mr. Tillerson’s ouster may undermine the nuclear deal that allowed
Iran to boost its oil production and could lead to sanctions against
Venezuela, analysts said. In either case, this could mean less oil
supply, which is bullish for prices.

Pierre Fabiani, a former executive at French oil giant Total
who advises companies trying to enter Iran’s oil industry, said Mr.
Tillerson’s dismissal was likely to lead to a return of restrictions on
Iran’s oil exports and investments.

“I am very worried,” Mr. Fabiani said.

Brent, the international benchmark, briefly jumped by more than a
dollar after the announcement before falling again to trade down 0.5% at
$64.41.

The 2015 Iranian nuclear agreement
between the U.S. and other world powers and Iran lifted most
international sanctions against Tehran in exchange for a significant
scaling back of its burgeoning nuclear program, opening the doors for
foreign investment in its oil industry. Mr. Trump next faces a decision
on waiving sanctions from that deal in May.

Mr. Tillerson had advocated for the U.S. to stick by the agreement, while Mr. Trump has repeatedly attacked it.
In comments as he left the White House on Tuesday, Mr. Trump called Mr.
Tillerson a “very good man” but said they disagreed on policy, notably
the 2015 Iran nuclear deal.

The appointment of an intelligence official to replace a former oil
executive “increases the risk of hot conflicts” between Iran and the
U.S. in Syria or with Saudi Arabia and Tehran in the Persian Gulf, said
Roozbeh Aliabadi, who advises companies trying to enter the Iranian
market. Such risk would be bullish for oil prices, he said....MORE