House Republican Fairytales

PLEASE DO NOT SHARE THIS MEMO WITH THE NRCC. THESE ARE DISTRICTS IN WHICH THEY ARE WASTING NEARLY $6 MILLION AND WE DON’T WANT THEM TO FIND OUT.

House Republicans are in Fantasyland. Not only have House Republicans claimed they will pick up seats in November, but they believe they can win in races that are far out of their reach and favor Democrats.

Republicans’ claims run smack dab against the reality of districts that either President Obama won with more than 55% of the vote in 2008 and/or have incumbents who survived the Republican wave in 2010.

Even conservative analyst Bill Kristol wrote Monday in the Weekly Standard that the Republican Majority may be in jeopardy. The National Journal also wrote Monday that “Dem fortunes are looking stronger nationally” from the White House to the House. Republicans running in Democratic-leaning districts not only face a down-ticket drag from Mitt Romney but are being weighed down by an extremely heavy anchor: The Ryan budget that ends Medicare and raises health care costs for seniors, while giving tax breaks to millionaires.

The Republican Fantasies

CA-09: Ricky Gill vs. Congressman Jerry McNerney: President Obama won this district with over 58 percent in 2008 and a McNerney campaign poll shows McNerney leading Gill by 16 points (49%-33%). Gill calls himself a “small business owner” but in reality he’s a 25-year-old recent law school graduate who has spent virtually his entire adult life in college and law school. The Cook Political Report rates this race as Lean Democrat.

CO-07: Joe Coors vs. Congressman Ed Perlmutter: President Obama won this district with nearly 59% in 2008 and Coors is too extreme for this moderate district. Coors backed the Personhood amendment, which would not only ban abortion even in cases of rape and incest but would even outlaw many common forms of birth control. The Cook Political Report and Washington Post Fix Ratings rate this race as Likely Democrat, and Rothenberg Political Report rates it as Democrat Favored.

FL-22: Adam Hasner vs. Lois Frankel: President Obama won this district with 57% of the vote in 2008 and the district got so Democratic that Congressman Allen West was forced to flee. Hasner joins West in supporting the Medicare-ending Ryan budget that raises health care costs for seniors, while giving tax breaks to millionaires, which doesn’t play well among South Florida’s retirees.

KY-06: Andy Barr vs. Congressman Ben Chandler: Barr lost in a Republican wave election in 2010 and will lose again. The district got more Democratic through redistricting and it now has a Democratic performance index of over 49%. An internal poll released by Chandler’s campaign earlier this month shows he’s leading by 14 points (51%-37%). Barr supports the Ryan budget to end Medicare and has pledged to protect tax breaks for companies shipping jobs overseas. The Cook Political Report rates this as Lean Democrat and Rothenberg Political Report rates it as Democrat Favored.

MA-06: Richard Tisei vs. Congressman John Tierney: President Obama won this district with 58% in 2008, and WBUR released a poll recently that shows Tierney leading by 12 points (46%-34%). Tisei would be a reliable Tea Party vote, calling the Tea Party a “Godsend,” and said the Ryan budget that ends Medicare to give tax breaks to millionaires was “a good starting point.”

RI-01: Brendan Doherty vs. Congressman David Cicilline:President Obama won this district with nearly 69% in 2008 and Cicilline has a strong 11-point lead (46%-35%) over Doherty, a new Benenson Strategy Group poll shows. In addition, internal polling for the Cicilline campaign shows a 10-point lead. Doherty has an added burden of a drag at the top of the ticket with President Obama currently leading Mitt Romney by 30 points (61%-31%). Doherty is a Romney-Republican who supports the Ryan-Romney plan to give tax breaks to millionaires, while ending Medicare, and has claimed that the Republican presidential nominee would be “fantastic for Rhode Island.”

WV-03: Rick Snuffer vs. Congressman Nick Rahall: This is a district Republicans went after hard in 2010 and Rahall still earned 56% of the vote in an incredibly tough environment for Democrats. An internal poll released by Rahall’s campaign shows him leading by 28 points (62%-34%). Snuffer is backed by Republicans in Congress who voted to end Medicare, while giving tax breaks to millionaires. The Cook Political Report rates this as Likely Democrat and Rothenberg Political Report rates it as Safe Democrat.

The bottom line: House Republicans are dreaming and living in a fantasy world if they think they can win these Democratic-held seats or districts with Democratic DNA. Republicans can waste all the resources they want in these races, but it doesn’t change the fact that they won’t have a fairytale ending.