New surge predictions giving West Bank leaders hope

Jefferson Parish officials said they're becoming increasingly confident that West Bank levees will be able hold back Hurricane Gustav's surge, after the latest tidal models show as little as 7 feet of water funneling into the Harvey Canal.

Previous predictions called for more than 10 feet of surge that might threaten the vulnerable and incomplete system. Still, a National Weather Service advisory that remains in effect warns that tides could pour over the area's flood defenses.

Tim Whitmer, top aide to Parish President Aaron Broussard, said at about 11:30 p.m. Sunday that SLOSH models indicate a 5- to 10-foot surge hitting coastal Louisiana, including Grand Isle and Jean Lafitte.

"It would work itself up the estuary so that by the time it got up front, it wouldn't be that high," he said, using the parish's nickname for its most populated areas. "We think we can handle 7 feet at Harvey (Canal) without problem."

Baskets loaded with sand protect an unfinished section of levee on the southeast end of the industrial waterway. The defense sits 8 feet above sea level, but levee district authorities weren't certain the temporary wall would hold up against violent wave action.

"The tracks shifted whatever little bit, which helps us," Whitmer said. "What's typically the northeast quadrant was kinda wind-sheared off. So the worst of the storm is actually to the southwest, which should miss us."

Jerry Spohrer, an administrator for the West Bank levee board, said he even saw a model with less than 6 feet of water in the Harvey Canal.

"That's fine. We can fight that," he said. "Nine, 10, 12 feet, that kicks our ass. But 5 to 6? We may run into a few problems here and there, but we feel pretty good about it."