Firstly the simple stuff: Tuesday's consumer price inflation figures, that seem certain to reaffirm recent moves within touching distance of the Bank of England's 2% target. But after that, things might get more complex.

Wednesday will bring the unemployment figures for July, which are predicted to show a modest rise – good news that appears at odds with weak data elsewhere in the economy, including the UK's sliding GDP. That divining rod will be followed by what are expected to be stagnant retail sales figures from the ONS on Thursday.

So, depending on which political party you prefer, the economy is either performing better than the figures show, or the numbers aren't telling the real labour-market story. But economists are rarely burdened by such certainty (or courage) so many will argue that both (or neither) scenario is correct: that each indicator is broadly accurate, but it is productivity that has weakened.

For those still awake at the back, Bank governor Sir Mervyn King made a similar argument last week and many in the City reckon he may be right about slumping productivity. And, no, he wasn't talking about Threadneedle Street's own output during the crisis.

Virgin Rail bid likely to hit buffers

British rail passengers were once urged to "let the train take the strain" – but after assuming the responsibility on the west coast line for 15 years, Sir Richard Branson's Virgin Rail may soon be relieved of the burden.

The government is poised to announce the winner of a new 14-year contract to operate the franchise, with an announcement pencilled in for this week – though, as with all things rail, keep an eye out for last-minute delays.

Still, Branson's bid seems to be stuck firmly in the sidings and, like an angry commuter inconvenienced by a late-running service, the tycoon is resorting to haranguing the guards. He has penned a missive to the prime minister to remind him that governments have a record of accepting pumped-up bids for franchises that collapse (such as National Express on the east coast line) and suggesting that rival FirstGroup – which is believed to have outbid Virgin with an offer of up to £7bn – will be forced to cut the quality of the services.

Still, Whitehall looks likely to award the contract to the highest bidder in a competition where there are only prizes for coming first. All of which makes a mockery of Virgin Trains' slogan: Love every second.

Better times for JJB?

A big week for JJB Sports, the struggling sportswear and equipment retailer, whose future is again on the agenda of gossiping City types. The chain emerged on Friday as a possible target of private equity tycoon Jon Moulton, who remains best known for his failed attempt to rescue MG Rover in 2000.

Moulton is believed to be offering to buy troubled JJB's debt via his firm Better Capital, in a move that would effectively hand him control. (Moulton, currently on a kayaking break, says that his interest has been somewhat overstated.) That vignette will interest Sports Direct boss Mike Ashley (for whom JJB is practically his only – if a rather feeble – competitor) as well as JJB's 47% shareholder, Invesco, which is also thought to be chasing a similar debt deal.

Moulton is an entertaining and candid man who, on leaving his last firm, Alchemy, apologised to investors for making "too many investment and people errors".

He pledged to raise his game (hence Better Capital) and is now chasing a retailer in urgent need of improvement, having just warned investors that JJB is running out of cash only four months after receiving a £30m injection.

For JJB's 4,000 staff, it might prove rather simple to believe in Better.