I'm just looking at a history of recent by-election polling. Ashcroft's Feltham and Heston poll was surprisingly accurate; within a couple of points of both the Labour and Tory percentages. Survation will probably release a poll at some point too. They were even more accurate in Feltham and Heston; they understated Labour and overstated the Tories each by a single point.

But yeah, quite a lot of by-election polls have been....well, pretty ghastly. Probably most notably the two polls for Glasgow East in 2008 - they both predicted an easy Labour hold.

This poll is scarily like what I'd've imagined the results of this by-election to be before seeing the poll and the pre 2010 election results (well, seeing again in the case of the 92-05 ones, technically).

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A 5 point drop in Corby during a by-election wouldn't be too problematic for the Tories.

I agree.

In fact, the Conservative vote has held up stronger than I expected. It's definitely helpful that UKIP isn't standing.

And if the Tories drop 5% nationally? Not a problem?

Not really, no. Although I'd prefer our polling numbers to be higher.

Governments are rarely popular and often suffer low polling numbers after their honeymoon period, however by election month, the polls often narrow quickly as the decision between a 'protest' vote for the Opposition and actually electing a government are different. If we were 5% behind come April 2015 (or whenever the election is), then I would be sh*tting it, to be blunt.

A 5 point drop in Corby during a by-election wouldn't be too problematic for the Tories.

I agree.

In fact, the Conservative vote has held up stronger than I expected. It's definitely helpful that UKIP isn't standing.

And if the Tories drop 5% nationally? Not a problem?

Not really, no. Although I'd prefer our polling numbers to be higher.

Governments are rarely popular and often suffer low polling numbers after their honeymoon period, however by election month, the polls often narrow quickly as the decision between a 'protest' vote for the Opposition and actually electing a government are different. If we were 5% behind come April 2015 (or whenever the election is), then I would be sh*tting it, to be blunt.

A 5 point drop in Corby during a by-election wouldn't be too problematic for the Tories.

I agree.

In fact, the Conservative vote has held up stronger than I expected. It's definitely helpful that UKIP isn't standing.

And if the Tories drop 5% nationally? Not a problem?

Not really, no. Although I'd prefer our polling numbers to be higher.

Governments are rarely popular and often suffer low polling numbers after their honeymoon period, however by election month, the polls often narrow quickly as the decision between a 'protest' vote for the Opposition and actually electing a government are different. If we were 5% behind come April 2015 (or whenever the election is), then I would be sh*tting it, to be blunt.

Various parties have candidates. The Tory candidate is not, in spite of rumours spread by a certain publicity seeking right-wing blogger, the recently retired England cricket captain Andrew Strauss. From Wikipedia, the list is

North East Hants, East Northants, where's the difference? (Of course, the constituency isn't named Corby & East Northants either, but it might as well be, so that bit's fine really.)

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I'm a little surprised that said publicity seeking right-wing blogger put that one about; most cricketers are rather nerdish about the history of the sport, which means they all know about Ted Dexter and his ill-advised run against Callaghan in '64.

That provisional list of candidates has doubled in size in the last few days. The additions are (again based on the Wikipedia page):

- James Delingpole, climate change denying right-wing journalist, standing as an Independent campaigning against wind farms. I'm not sure I see the point of the OMRLP candidacy any more.- Adam Lotun, a disabled rights campaigner, supported by a number of campaign groups including UKUncut.- Peter Reynolds, Cannabis Law Reform.- a BNP candidate- Rohen Kapur, Young People's Party, whoever they are. Stood as an Independent in Hornsey & Wood Green in 2010 and got 91 votes. From his blog it seems he doesn't like Mitt Romney or the Labour Party very much.- Christopher Scotton, United People's Party (who are also supposedly standing in Manchester Central - edit: actually it seems that they have disowned their candidate there)

I'm a little surprised that said publicity seeking right-wing blogger put that one about; most cricketers are rather nerdish about the history of the sport, which means they all know about Ted Dexter and his ill-advised run against Callaghan in '64.

Callaghan's majority in Cardiff South East fell under 1,000 votes in 1959 and local Tories thought he might be vulnerable next time round. So in 1964 Ted Dexter was drafted in as a star candidate; the theory was that his celebrity status would negate the national swing to Labour. His campaign was a trainwreck of epic proportions; amongst other things he seriously suggested to an audience made up mostly of dockers and steelworkers that they ought to consider sending their children to Eton. Callaghan increased his majority to just under 8,000.

Given that their biggest success on Nov. 15th is likely to be in Corby, it's a bit embarrassing for Labour that their candidate for Northants Police Commissioner has had to withdraw. But then interest in the commissioner election is so low that probably no-one will notice.

Given that their biggest success on Nov. 15th is likely to be in Corby, it's a bit embarrassing for Labour that their candidate for Northants Police Commissioner has had to withdraw. But then interest in the commissioner election is so low that probably no-one will notice.

What happens when he wins - as with differential turnout he well might?

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Given that their biggest success on Nov. 15th is likely to be in Corby, it's a bit embarrassing for Labour that their candidate for Northants Police Commissioner has had to withdraw. But then interest in the commissioner election is so low that probably no-one will notice.

What happens when he wins - as with differential turnout he well might?