Attackers' Identity Remains Unclear

By

Matthew Rosenberg

Updated Nov. 28, 2008 12:01 a.m. ET

NEW DELHI -- It remains unclear who was responsible for Wednesday's terrorist attacks in Mumbai. But by Thursday, Indian officials had voiced suspicions that some of the terrorists were from Pakistan. The comments damped hopes for an improvement in relations soon, though few believe the peace process between the nuclear-armed rivals will collapse altogether.

ENLARGE

Pakistan's Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi expressed shock at the attacks and vowed his country will cooperate in any investigation.
Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

Pakistani officials were quick to condemn the attacks. President Asif Ali Zardari "stressed the need for taking strict measures to eradicate terrorism and extremism from the region," the state-run Associated Press of Pakistan reported.

Mr. Zardari's young government, Pakistan's first democratically elected administration in nearly a decade, is widely seen in India as committed to the peace process. Earlier Wednesday, before the attacks, Pakistan's foreign minister had told reporters in New Delhi that his country was committed to the faltering peace process with India. "Terrorism threatens both the countries and we should join hands in fighting this scourge," Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi said.

While it's still unknown who was behind the attacks, some have suggested other potential culprits. There are widespread doubts in both India and Pakistan that Mr. Zardari and his government have full control over the army and the powerful military agency Inter-Services Intelligence, the two Pakistani institutions capable of reining in the country's many militant groups.

Pakistan's military and intelligence establishment have long cultivated Islamic militants to use as proxies against Hindu-majority India, mainly in Kashmir, the predominantly Muslim region in the Himalayas over which the countries have fought several wars. Those militants have played a leading role in a 19-year insurgency in India's part of Kashmir, and have been repeatedly blamed by the Indian government for attacks that have plagued the rest of India since the India-Pakistan peace process began in 2004.

The familiar accusations surfaced again following Wednesday's assault on Mumbai. Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh declared there were probably "external linkages" to the assault, a clear reference to Pakistani militants.

Opinion

An Indian home ministry official said authorities suspected Pakistani militants because one of the attackers spoke with a Pakistani accent in a phone call to India TV, a Hindi-language station, and because Americans, Britons and Jews appear to have been singled out in the attacks.

"We have some Indian Muslims who are unhappy, and there are grievances they have. But they don't hunt for Americans or Britishers or the Jews," the official said, noting that other recent attacks in India, which weren't blamed on Pakistani militants, targeted spots frequented by Indians.

Mr. Singh's remarks added to the tensions with Pakistan. "The statement of the Indian prime minister is premature and could escalate tension in the region," said Tariq Fatmi, a former Pakistani ambassador to Washington. "It will have a negative effect on the ongoing efforts to normalize relations between the two countries."

One of the main goals of Pakistan's myriad militant groups, many of which have ties to al Qaeda, is to undermine the peace process. This summer, a car bombing destroyed India's embassy in Kabul, killing 60 people. Indian and U.S. officials said Pakistan's ISI plotted the attack with Islamic militants, allegations Islamabad denied.

The peace process survived, however, and Pakistani officials have made a series of overtures to India in the past week. Mr. Zardari offered to declare that Pakistan wouldn't be the first to use nuclear weapons -- an offer it hadn't made previously -- and work toward establishing a visa-free travel zone between the two countries. Mr. Qureshi arrived Wednesday in New Delhi to reinforce that Pakistan remained committed to the process.

Still, few believe the peace process will collapse. Neither country can afford renewed conflict -- India's economy is too fragile and Pakistan is struggling to contain the Taliban and al Qaeda. "Since the outset, both sides have said the process should be blastproof," said
C. Uday Bhaskar,
a strategic analyst in New Delhi.

The result, say analysts, will probably be persistently cool relations between India and Pakistan. That will complicate matters for the U.S., which has struggled to convince Islamabad's military elite that the real threat comes from Islamic militants dug in on the border with Afghanistan, not from India.

The U.S. has had some success in recent months: Pakistan's military is fighting a major offensive against the Taliban and al Qaeda in one of the tribal areas bordering Afghanistan. But the bulk of Pakistan's army -- and its best soldiers -- are still stationed on the border with India.

This copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. Distribution and use of this material are governed by our Subscriber Agreement and by copyright law. For non-personal use or to order multiple copies, please contact Dow Jones Reprints at 1-800-843-0008 or visit www.djreprints.com.