The 10 biggest quarterback steals in the NFL draft since 2010

That quarterbacks would own the first round of this week’s NFL draft seemed set in stone as early as last summer, when a quick review of the crop of draft-eligible starters indicated that 2017 would be the year of QB in college football.

Russell Wilson runs the ball against Penn State during his one season at Wisconsin.

Four are almost certain to go within the first dozen or picks: Oklahoma’s Baker Mayfield, Southern California’s Sam Darnold, UCLA’s Josh Rosen and Wyoming’s Josh Allen. A fifth, former Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson of Louisville, should also find a home in the first round.

But not all starting quarterbacks are found in the first round of the draft. Drew Brees went in the second round. You may have heard that Tom Brady lasted all the way to the sixth round in 2000. Insert your own example here.

So this week’s Top 10 list looks back since 2010 to ask: Which former college quarterbacks taken outside of the first round have put together the best NFL careers?

1. Russell Wilson, Wisconsin

Wilson was taken 75th overall in the third round by the Seattle Seahawks in 2012, as the sixth quarterback taken in his class. Any fears about his height, or lack thereof, have been proven to be ridiculous: Wilson has started every game of his career since that 2012 season with 161 touchdowns and a Super Bowl ring – and he probably should’ve won two.

The Raiders grabbed Carr with the 36th overall pick in 2014, just a few spots into the second round, and he’s been the starter ever since. Carr’s thrown for least 3,270 passing yards and 20 touchdowns in each of his four years, and in 2016 led Oakland to its first year of double-digit wins since the 2002 team that went to the Super Bowl.

3. Andy Dalton, TCU

Like Wilson and Carr, Dalton has been a starter since being taken 35th overall in the second round by the Bengals in 2011. This period has been among the best in franchise history: Dalton led the Bengals to the postseason in each of his first five seasons, though he’s yet to win a playoff game.

4. Colin Kaepernick, Nevada

As NFL teams look elsewhere in search of competent options under center, it’s worth remembering that Kaepernick threw 72 touchdowns against just 30 interceptions, averaged 7.3 yards per attempt, ran for 2,300 yards and 13 touchdowns, and won an NFC championship after being drafted by the 49ers one spot after Dalton in 2011.

5. Kirk Cousins, Michigan State

The former Michigan State standout wasn’t even the first quarterback Washington selected in 2012; that’d be Robert Griffin III. Cousins lasted until the fourth round, 102nd overall. But he ascended to the full-time starting role in 2014 and threw for more than 4,000 yards in each of the past three years before landing an enormous contract from the Minnesota Vikings.

6. Dak Prescott, Mississippi State

Maybe this is a little high for Prescott, considering he’s only been in the NFL for two seasons. But he gets a few bonus points for lasting until the fourth round, when the Cowboys happily scooped up the Mississippi State product and inserted him into the lineup to replace an injured Tony Romo. His second season wasn’t as good as his first, but Prescott figures to spend the rest of his career as the prime example of how teams can find top-tier starters outside of the first round.

7. Nick Foles, Arizona

Prior to this past January, Foles was best known for a ridiculous 2013 season, when he threw for 27 touchdowns against just two picks in Chip Kelly’s offense with the Eagles. The third-round pick in the 2012 draft was a non-factor for years – one awful year with the Rams, another doing little for the Chiefs – before returning to the Eagles prior to last season and driving the team’s postseason push to a Super Bowl.

8. Tyrod Taylor, Virginia Tech

Taylor was drafted in the sixth round by the Ravens in 2011 and spent the next four years holding a clipboard before the Bills plucked him away and made him their starter in 2015. After three seasons there, Taylor will spend 2018 as either the Browns’ starter or a key veteran reserve, depending on what direction Cleveland goes with its first overall pick. Not bad for a guy who was the second-to-last quarterback taken in his draft.

9. Jimmy Garoppolo, Eastern Illinois

Garoppolo’s career as a starter is just warming up for the 49ers, who traded with the Patriots to make the former Eastern Illinois quarterback the face of its offense. In his six games for San Francisco in 2017, Garoppolo completed 67.4% of his attempts and averaged a tidy 8.8 yards per throw. After biding his time behind Tom Brady, the former second-round pick in 2014 is ready to break out.

10. Mike Glennon, North Carolina State

This is probably a good time to say that the miss rate on quarterbacks taken from the second through the seventh rounds in higher than first-round picks, unsurprisingly. But so are the expectations: Quarterbacks who go in the first round are supposed to become starters at worst and franchise difference-makers at best. On the other hand, quarterbacks such as Glennon, who has started 22 games for two franchises since being taken in 2013, provide above-average return on a third-round investment.