Through three games, Andrew Luck ranks dead last in passer rating

Posted by Michael David Smith on September 29, 2015, 11:49 AM EDT

AP

The NFL’s passer rating formula is far from perfect, but it’s the official metric the league uses to provide a ballpark estimate of how well a quarterback is playing. And according to that metric, the worst starting quarterback in the NFL this year is Andrew Luck.

That seems crazy, but it’s true. Luck’s passer rating of 65.1 is the lowest of all the NFL’s first-string quarterbacks. The only players who have thrown a pass in the NFL this season with a lower passer rating are Bears backup quarterback Jimmy Clausen and Rams punter Johnny Hekker, who threw one pass, an incompletion, on a fake punt.

Luck’s passer rating is lower than that of quarterbacks who have been benched (Brian Hoyer is at 72.7), lower than that of quarterbacks who many observers think should be benched (Josh McCown is at 83.2), lower than quarterbacks who have been roundly criticized for their slow starts (Sam Bradford is at 72.5) and lower than quarterbacks who don’t look ready to play yet (Blake Bortles is at 78.3).

Perhaps most amazingly, all of the other quarterbacks in the 2012 draft class are doing better than Luck. Cowboys quarterback Brandon Weeden, a bust with the Browns in the same first round when the Colts drafted Luck, has a passer rating of 102.7. Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson, drafted in the third round in 2012, is at a solid 94.2. Rams quarterback Nick Foles, a 2012 second-round pick of the Eagles, is at 87.5. Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill, another first-round pick in 2012, is at 85.5. Washington quarterback Kirk Cousins, a fourth-round pick in 2012, is at 81.3.

At least Luck doesn’t have to worry about his passer rating falling behind the player chosen directly behind him, Robert Griffin III, whose stock has fallen so far that Washington turned him into a scout team safety. There’s no chance of that happening to Luck. But there are questions being raised around the NFL about what has happened to this player who entered the NFL looking like the best quarterback prospect of his generation. Luck is off to a terrible start.

HA HA HA! Indy fans! HA HA HA! You were talking about an undefeated season! HA HA HA! You thought you were shoe ins for the Super Bowl! HA HA HA! Irsay must have been dumping his drugs into the drinking water supply! HA HA HA!

He’s not playing well at all and the Colts have done an atrocious job of game planning on offense as well. He’ll snap out of it and they will win their division so they can get trounced in the playoffs again.

In all fairness the GM and the HC haven’t done anything to improve Luck. He grew so much under Bruce Arians, but somehow has been regressing under Pagano. The team didn’t need Andre Johnson or even Frank Gore for that matter, the team needs OL and deffense. Luck will be fine, but the Colts will be just average till the GM and the HC (both) are gone and a true rebuilding starts.

As a pats fan I have actually always liked Luck and think he is going to be a superstar in a few years. He bears his fair share for the colts woes this season but most of the blame needs to laid at the feet of management and coaching. He has been asked to do too much, the management has not addressed the flaws of the team, especially on defense and the coaching is flawed. Pagano is not a terrible coach, he just isn’t a very good one and Griegson is a piece of crap.

Yes the pats are going to lay a whooping on the colts but its not going to be very satisfying, at least to me, its going to be more like kicking a street drunk while he is passed out on the sidewalk. Its actually a lot more satisfying to beat a team that is worthy of you, but this game has clearly now become just another stop on the brady F.U. tour.

Karma. And about that 72 point comment? Pagano and Grigson will be ecstatic if that turd defense can keep them under 50 and you know it. Luck’s a good kid, likable actually. Play’s hard but is asked to carry the team on his back so he takes chances. He’s a victim of his front office. Maybe if the GM concentrated on something else besides the Patriots and how to frame them he just might have thought to, oh, I don’t know, acquired some defensive help and strengthened the o-line. And just maybe not sign a free agent closer to Social Security than to their prime.

numbers schmumbers……id say 30 teams would trade their QB for him in a heartbeat… including the pats and broncos, because of their QB’s respective ages. only team that wouldnt would be the packers cuz rodgers still has plenty of under the center time left in his career

Maybe stop hyper-focusing on players with a magnifying glass. Matthew Stafford has been in the league way longer with a better defense and the best receiver of a generation to throw to and hasn’t done squat. But hey, let’s pile on Luck instead. He might go through the whole year and just not have it this year, but I think the guy’s track record speaks for itself that a benefit of the doubt is warranted.

Funny how Pats followers this this is funny and then make fun. When people do that to their cheating franchise, they call the rest of us crybabies. Go to court and see if you can get a new ruling or something.

“According to that metric, the worst starting quarterback in the NFL this year is Andrew Luck.”

Um … and according to that same metric, the 7th best starting quarterback in the NFL this year is Marcus Mariota. … While we Titans fans will argue in a heartbeat that Marcus is the real thing, we know he’s far from having “arrived.” There’s only one elite QB in our division and that’s Andrew Luck. He may have company next season or the season after, but … let’s talk reality, okay?

It’s too early to compare QB ratings. One bad or one good game will change the ratings drastically until a larger sample size is achieved. Tannehill was around 108 after 2 games and his debacle against the Bills (~60) dropped his rating to 85ish. Picks kill a QB rating and a tipped ball that should have been caught but is intercepted counts the same as a ball thrown directly to a wide open defender with no receiver in sight. I’m sure some of his picks were just unlucky but he does throw a bit more interceptions than other ‘good’ QBs. The Colts have been behind alot so far and that means the QB will likely take more chances in order to make a play. If he still has the low ratings by mid-season then there might be something to worry about.

Same problem Payton had with the Colts. No supporting cast around him. Luck has had no running game and his receiver corps is meh. Add to an Offensive Line that is absolutely putrid and you have the current situation.

Indy and Miami will both be picking in the top 10 next year. I know Miami will be and that is something I am looking forward to. No sense in winning 7 games and loosing out on a top LT. Here is to loosing out and drafting ND Left Tackle. This is what happens when youre oline sucks as well as youre defense.

The scheme and lack of talent around him is part of the issue. But he gets WAY too much slack concerning his turnovers. I get tired of watching games where he’ll have 2-3 picks and the announcers continue to talk about him like he’s a Hall of Famer.

gotitan says:
Sep 29, 2015 12:21 PM
Funny how Pats followers this this is funny and then make fun. When people do that to their cheating franchise, they call the rest of us crybabies. Go to court and see if you can get a new ruling or something.

mister305miami says:
Sep 29, 2015 12:27 PM
Indy and Miami will both be picking in the top 10 next year.

Indy will win at least five of their division games if not all six. Outside of their division the Saints and Bucs look like certain wins, and Indy will probably get their offense together enough to compete in a few of their other games.

No way Indy picks in the top 10 with their own draft pick next year unless Luck gets hurt, or Irsay orders the team to throw games again like he did the season before Luck draft.

Well, maybe if Colts management had drafted Luck some damn protection instead of picking up an aging RB and WR, he wouldn’t be dead last in the NFL and wouldn’t be getting hit almost every time he drops back.

“It’s too early to compare QB ratings. One bad or one good game will change the ratings drastically until a larger sample size is achieved”

Lolz you’re posting actual scientific reasoning in a place full of science deniers and people who can barely add 2+2

I applaud the effort but trying to explain statistical analysis to the posters here and the media trying to get click bait is like trying to explain calculus to a dog. They’re just not going to get what you’re even referring to.

Something tells me that his passer rating will skyrocket this week….because “Luck”y for him the “we just played NE and they scored on thier 1st 9 possessions and got 35 first downs” Jaguars are coming to town.

Yes those stats are true. Boy do we stink and Gus Bradley is an absolute failure as a Head Coach. It is actually getting to the point where he might even be coaching himself out of any future Def Coordinator spots – it is truly that bad.

IMO? Your line play still determines your overall success. And the Colts OL is a mess.

The Titans are still a hot-and-cold defense who are very bad when cold. Unless the Colts get the OL issues worked out, remaining games against stronger, more consistent defenses will continue to be ugly.

When the Colts decide to get serious about building an adequate offensive line for Luck, then we can discuss his passing rating. Until then, can anyone think of a QB in the league right now that could take the pounding that Luck has been taking? He has absolutely no time at all to get the ball thrown before he is pummeled. The only QB even close to that durable would be Big Ben, and even he is injured right now. The Brady/Manning/Rogers of the NFL would be on IR by now with the beating that Luck has taken so far this yr.

“3 out of 4 colts balls were under the legal limit
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Incorrect. Quit making things up to make yourself feel better about your Pats. ”

Actually with the gauge used to claim the Pats balls were under 12.5 psi 3 of the 4 Colts balls were under 12.5 psi.

With the other gauge they were not, however the NFL only used the data from that gauge for the Colts, and tossed out that data for the Pats using only the data from the gauge that showed them under 12.5 psi but within the range the the ideal gas law shows they would lose pressure to.

The only ball the Pats had that was significantly under pressure was the one the Colts had on their sideline for half an hour. The one they lied about when they claimed the intercepting player told the coaches felt soft. When in fact the player later said he never told the coaches anything along those lines.

There seems little question that the Colts let a significant amount of air out of that ball to frame the Pats.

hairpie2 says:
Sep 29, 2015 12:41 PM
he hasnt been the same since the colts were caught playing with under inflated footballs during the afccg. Brady, however, has been exactly the same.
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Your team is doing just fine, and my Colts are sucking, but you still feel the need to troll on them? Why, are you somehow threatened by them?

3 out of 4 colts balls were under the legal limit
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All 4 were well over the limit on the properly calibrated gauge. ALL Pats balls were underinflated on BOTH gauges.
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And which gauge was that? Neither were calibrated.
Luck will do OK with time cause he has all the basic skills of a star. Just won’t be happening any time soon.

Luck was know for hitting his TEs and RBs at Stanford, with just under 7 ypa. His old OC at Stanford, Pep Hamilton announced last year that he would be throwing more vertical routes.

I was in the minority, but I stated right here, that it would result in more INTs. Well, he threw a lot of TDs, but who can say there are not more INTs? Yeah, he’s under pressure, but so is every QB. Heck Wilson runs for his life every game.

His problem at Stanford was throwing 15-20 yds outside the numbers. The ball is in the air way too long. I predicted professional DBs would get to his balls and they are. Favorable media is basically related to hyped expectations that he was not ever going to be able to live up to. Let him play sans the hype, maybe he’ll be OK.

Luck turned a 1-15 team into an 11-5 team literally overnight. The Colts are 1-2 right now. They’ll end up at least 10-6, but who knows, he could have an off year and go 9-7. Just my opinion, but the Colts are a bad team. They need a new coach and a fresh start.

Love that Andrew is getting fan backed support in the form of he has no talent around him, the game plans are atrocious, no defense…. etc

Same things we had spouted for many seasons about Romo.
Hows those shoes fit? Snug?

Parallels of the two are similar. Both enjoy great success early, both get rocked out of playoffs, both end up on teams that disintegrate around them, both become the butt of every NFL joke imaginable, both will probably never see a Super Bowl.

Biggest difference – Ones a #1 overall pick that IS a turnover machine. The other, a undrafted free agent with some of the best numbers in the history of the sport.

Good news though, I’m positive Luck will be fine. Down the road, maybe this season. This organization though, if they choose the flashy drafts over the lunch pail drafts well…

Out of control beard Andrew Luck…

Meet

Arts and Craftsy Tony Romo….

Enjoy 10+ seasons of Crownies w/o sprinkles mind you. Because we all know, sprinkles are for winners.

Luck CAN be as good as most people think, but playing for that toxic waste dump of a franchise and it’s crack head owner is a prescription for unfulfilled potential.

If I were Luck’s dad, I’d make sure he never sign another contract with the Colts. THAT would be the final karmic irony. The team that ACTUALLY cheated the rest of the league and dumped games to get Luck, loses him after the 2016 season to their own incompetence.

Ryan Grigson wanted to draft Andrew Luck,
The Colts were so bad, it was said that they suck
They took Andrew Luck with the number one pick
It certainly looked smarter than signing Michael Vick

But then they tempted fate, and they accused the Pats
Now Luck is last in the league, and getting outclassed
They accused Tom of cheating, and he got annoyed
And the Pats will soon visit, the Colts will be destroyed

varangia says:
Sep 29, 2015 1:36 PM
Luck turned a 1-15 team into an 11-5 team literally overnight. The Colts are 1-2 right now. They’ll end up at least 10-6, but who knows, he could have an off year and go 9-7. Just my opinion, but the Colts are a bad team. They need a new coach and a fresh start.
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If the Colts go 10-6….that means, in all probability they win their 6 division games and go less than .500 against teams from other division…..and that means they lose in the playoffs pretty quickly….again.

When the Colts decide to get serious about building an adequate offensive line for Luck, then we can discuss his passing rating. Until then, can anyone think of a QB in the league right now that could take the pounding that Luck has been taking? He has absolutely no time at all to get the ball thrown before he is pummeled. The only QB even close to that durable would be Big Ben, and even he is injured right now. The Brady/Manning/Rogers of the NFL would be on IR by now with the beating that Luck has taken so far this yr.
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Stafford is in his second straight season of getting crushed every week. Not saying Luck isn’t tough, but watch some Lions games…I feel bad for Stafford with the O-Line issues they have in Detroit.

That said, Luck’s problems are two-fold. First, he needs a real O-Line, and that is all on the GM. The second factor is effectng the whole team. A lame-duck head coach makes every player question the direction of the team. And when a guy has been successful, such as Harbaugh in Frisco, or Pagano in Indy, there is no reason for the team to leave them hanging, unless they are just going to hang.

Every player in that locker room (except Luck) is wondering if he will have a job there next year with a regime-change in the wind. Blame Irsay and Grigson equally.

And for those typically delusional fans looking for Harbaugh to come in and fix everything, consider this: he is in year one with his alma-mater, loves the job, and his team is already better than expected.

In addition, why would he go into a situation as dysfunctional as the one he just got fired from in Frisco? If/When he returns to the NFL, he will have his choice of teams, and Indy won’t be on that list.

1.) Luck has never had a good offensive line but yet still producing this well through three seasons.

2.) Look at the teams he faced in his first two games, the Bills and Jets. Not only to mention that they’re outstanding defenses but he had to play them early in the season when defenses are always ahead of offenses.

3.) Luck has a lot of new faces around him with RB, WRs, and many of the lineman. Chemistry takes a while to develop.

Lastly, I would love for all of you to save this article and come back to it in December so you could have a good laugh.

This is not news to Russell Wilson fans that have been arguing the Luck vs Wilson debate the last three years. Other than total yards the stats aren’t really even close. Russell wins easily.

Funny how RG3 used to be in that conversation. Oh and BTW Wilson’s OLine is actually WORSE than Luck’s.

Back to back super bowls after three years of playing the game. If that was Andrew everyone would already have him as the best player in any sport ever. Nomatter what his numbers actually were.

Isn’t it funny that if Payton gets back to the sb again one last time this year it will be on the back of that currently awesome defense and effective running game? Things people actually hold against Russell. That’s football folks. It’s a team sport.

Luck isn’t bad, but can the media just finally give up on trying to anoint him as the next best thing already? Let him earn it. Until he can dramatically reduce the amount of interceptions he throws, he shouldn’t be mentioned in the same breath as Rodgers and Brady.

eazeback says:
Sep 29, 2015 12:08 PM
numbers schmumbers……id say 30 teams would trade their QB for him in a heartbeat… including the pats and broncos, because of their QB’s respective ages. only team that wouldnt would be the packers cuz rodgers still has plenty of under the center time left in his career
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You wish you could trade your overrated bust for the GOAT, I think several teams would keep their respective QBs over Andrew (S)uck including Pats, Packers, Falcons, Seahawks, Panthers, Cowboys, Titans, Cardinals, maybe even Vikings, Jaguars, Buccaneers and even the Bengals with consideration of price tags and cap space. Keep deluding yourself, Luck is already as overrated as the greatly overrated Peyton Manning, he’ll be lucky to even sniff a SB with that garbage franchise.

So I went back and adjusted the QB ratings for Luck, adding the fumbles lost to the interception count, since a turnover is a turnover, and I suspected the fact that fumbles don’t count in traditional QB ratings was masking how bad he is at keeping the ball in his team’s hands. Here’s the regular QB rating, and then the adjusted numbers, by year:

2012: 76.5 / 73.2
2013: 87.0 / 85.6
2014: 96.5 / 92.5

His biggest drop was last year, and that’s not counting the 7 fumbles that his team recovered, that basically amounted to the same impact as a sack would have.

The drop isn’t HUGE, but it takes him from looking like a border-line elite QB, to a good but not great QB. I hear a lot of excuses being made for him, and I’m reminded of what people did with Peyton; the guy had elite talent around him, but there was always an excuse when he would fail. You don’t hear the same excuses for Brady or for Rodgers for instance. In Peyton’s case he at least was putting up elite numbers most of the time, in a career that was largely pre-modern pass-happy era. Luck’s whole career has been in this era, and his stats when you include fumbles lost, and fumbles, don’t paint the picture of someone that’s elite.

Don’t worry Colts fans, Irsay is going to the competition committee in the offseason to get a rule change instituted that says if your QB has the lowest rating it means your team is now the best, because that’s how the Colts roll in the era of participation banners!!!

The change in what constitutes a great QB is already happening. In the past, a guy that could huck the ball down field and hook up with a speedy WR a few times a game was the goal. Because of the better QBs in the league, that is the old and dangerous path.

Now, like Brady in New England, even Rodgers eschews the long passes for the short catch and run plays. Why? Because it wins football games.

There is far less risk of turnover, and you manage the clock in your own team’s favor by just moving the chains down the field steadily instead of going for the long bomb all the time. Young QBs should take note.

Could Luck become a greatly productive offensive leader of some team in the future? Of that I have no doubt. But not with the crappy game planning he’s getting from the current Colts’ coaching staff., and the weak supporting cast he’s getting from their front office.

When it comes right down to it, all of an offense’s production is dependant on having an effective front line. That is NOT what Indy has right now.

His OL sucks and always has and now he has happy feet like Pats Drew Bledsoe and Tony Eason used to have. Eason especially in the SB vs the Bears in 86, although I couldn’t have blamed him, that team was vicious.

His line is terrible, end of story. The man doesn’t exist that can play QB in the NFL at an elite level on a consistent basis without at least an average line.

They can keep Luck clean on 3 step drops, let alone have the ability to call routes that take time to develop.

That doesn’t mean it’s easily fixable, or will be fixed at all. Their line has been suspect as long as Luck has been there, and they seem intent on ignoring it to bring in high prices vets on D, and more WR on O. Until they are going to be willing to build the line from the ground up, Luck will be in trouble

The Colts balls were measured at the end of the half after the Pats balls were measured twice allowing them to warm up in an over crowded ref locker room. That is the reason they only checked 4 of the Colts balls, they ran out of time.

Then 3 were still below the 12.5 league minimum on the gauge the Ref said he used. But Pash or Nash along with Wells said he must have misremembered which gauge he used but accepted every other answer he gave to their questions.

The problem with Luck is he’s always going for the home run and holds the ball to long. With a bad OL he needs to get rid of it quicker but he waits 4-6 seconds on most plays. Anyone watching the game vs the Jets could see that. Well except for his coaches.

Colts fan here. Keep the comments coming… I wouldn’t want to piss Luck off. Any given Sunday he can beat any team. He plays best from behind. Here’s a tip… Don’t bet against Luck. Variances happen. Colts and their fans are dedicated. For what it’s worth Peyton held the record for int’s his rookie year. I believe Blake Bortles broke it. With Luck on our side, we will always have a chance any given Sunday.

rekroot says:
Sep 29, 2015 6:01 PM
Colts fan here. Keep the comments coming… I wouldn’t want to piss Luck off. Any given Sunday he can beat any team. He plays best from behind. Here’s a tip… Don’t bet against Luck. Variances happen. Colts and their fans are dedicated. For what it’s worth Peyton held the record for int’s his rookie year. I believe Blake Bortles broke it. With Luck on our side, we will always have a chance any given Sunday.
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You barely beat the Titans…..I don’t think too many teams are trembling at the thought of Luck and the Colts.

Weak comparison. Since by 3 games into his 4th season, Rodgers was the starter for exactly 3 games.

Once learned from 3 years on the sidelines. One learned under fire. Of course the numbers will reflect that

your analysis is TURRIBLE

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what makes people think not playing made rodgers better?? if he was going to be great, he was going to be great, and luck has 3 years experience at this point in his career rodgers never got. in his first 50 starts, rodgers had 32 picks to luck’s 48.

When the Colts decide to get serious about building an adequate offensive line for Luck, then we can discuss his passing rating. Until then, can anyone think of a QB in the league right now that could take the pounding that Luck has been taking? He has absolutely no time at all to get the ball thrown before he is pummeled. The only QB even close to that durable would be Big Ben, and even he is injured right now. The Brady/Manning/Rogers of the NFL would be on IR by now with the beating that Luck has taken so far this yr.
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Rodgers was the most hit QB in 2011 had the 32nd ranked running game and 32nd ranked defense. Still went 15-1.

As soon as he can Luck will get the fork out of Indy and head east to New England.

There he will sign with the hated you-know-whos, don the number 13 and spend a season standing on the sideline healing and watching #12 show him how to play, while at the same time healing inwardly by being with a top-notch organization. Then #12 will step down, #13 will step up and life will go on as usual for the obnoxious arrogant New England fans. (I’m one of them)

30 other teams will go ballistic at this revoltin’ development, Goodell will call for a congressional inquiry under President Cruz, Indy will have an absolute cow over it, and the (hated and feared) coach and GM of the other team – the you-know-whos – when asked what it all means will simply shrug and say ” we’re just looking forward to Cincinnati”