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Monday, February 23, 2009

I think we could get a move higher--even though the futures are off of their best levels of the night. I can't see any catalyst that will actually move us out of the bear market. We continue to look toward the government for our answers and that cannot be the answer for a free market system. Citi is moving closer to nationalization and we can't see the financial sector move higher until we have a plan that will allow the banks to heal without government dependence.

I have no problem saying that I was wrong and I was---I exited my UDN (short dollar) trade last week. Over the short run, we will be seeing deflation and when inflation finally takes hold it will be bad, but for now we are seeing the dollar hold up well against everything but gold. Deflation will not be good for stocks and I will use this rally (if it materializes) to get short. I like SRS (short real estate).

I think we could get a move higher--even though the futures are off of their best levels of the night. I can't see any catalyst that will actually move us out of the bear market. We continue to look toward the government for our answers and that cannot be the answer for a free market system. Citi is moving closer to nationalization and we can't see the financial sector move higher until we have a plan that will allow the banks to heal without government dependence.

I have no problem saying that I was wrong and I was---I exited my UDN (short dollar) trade last week. Over the short run, we will be seeing deflation and when inflation finally takes hold it will be bad, but for now we are seeing the dollar hold up well against everything but gold. Deflation will not be good for stocks and I will use this rally (if it materializes) to get short. I like SRS (short real estate).