A new Maori Television poll shows Maori support for Labour and Helen Clark remains high

Despite its remarkably steady poll lead, as shown in the latest Pollwatch poll of polls here on Pundit, National is taking a considerable gamble in this election. Still seemingly unable to understand that coalitions are at the heart of MMP, National's prime strategy is to win 50 percent of the vote on its own—or, at least, a percentage in the late 40s that's sufficient for it to govern alone.

It would be remarkable if National could hold its current lead. As David Lewis pointed out last week, no single party has won more than 50 percent of the vote since 1951.

If the Labour/Progressives/Greens/New Zealand First gaps closes, National's Plan B is to beg a few seats from Act, United Future and perhaps the Maori Party. Hence John Key's efforts to woo Pita Sharples and Tariana Turia and downplay the Maori-bashing that National revelled in under Don Brash. The Maori Party, shrewdly, has ruled nothing out, putting them in the box negotiating seat come November 9. Commentators have bought into the potential for a National—Maori coalition. The strongest point in that argument is that National could yet offer movement on the Foreshore and Seabed Act, or even some constitutionally-creative role for the Maori Party within a new government.

But the very serious weakness in that plan has been highlighted by a Maori Television poll released last night. The channel's statement reads:

A political poll commissioned by Maori Television shows that Labour has a clear majority of support amongst Maori voters (52 per cent) followed by the Maori party (20 per cent) and National (15 per cent)... On leader preferences and assessments,Maori voters' support for Labour is reflected in their much stronger preference for Helen Clark (38 per cent) for Prime Minister than John Key (10 per cent) who enjoys as much support for preferred PM as Winston Peters (10 per cent).

And that, in a nutshell, is why it would be very hard for the Maori Party to sign a deal with National. Sharples and Turia can't burn off the people it wants to be the party's long-term supporters for the sake of a single term in government.

The poll is one of eight being carried out by the channel's Kowhiri 08 programme, in partnership with TNS. The margin of error is 4.8 percent. Here are some more of the findings:

Attribute

Clark%

Key%

More honest than other politicians

61

22

Down to earth

74

42

In touch with the needs of Maori

52

14

Rather inexperienced

8

66

Base: Maori voters

420

420

I would have that thought that "In touch with the needs of Maori" is a crucial point.

MMP VOTING: PARTY VOTE: If a general election was held yesterday, which political party would you have voted for?

18-28 September 2008

Total

Maori

Non-Maori

%

%

%

Labour

41

52

35

National

40

15

51

NZ First

4

5

3

Green Party

5

5

6

ACT

1.7

0.6

2.2

United Future

0.4

0.3

0.5

Maori Party

6

20

0.4

Alliance

0.1

-

0.1

Christian Heritage

-

-

-

Progressive

0.2

0.3

0.1

Destiny NZ

0.3

0.6

0.1

All others

1.5

1.4

1.5

Base:

1172

355

817

Don’t know/ undecided

11.3

12.6

10.7

Would not vote

2.9

2.9

2.9

Base:

1365

420

945

It seems that the National Party is still suffering from the Brash attacks, if not its decades-long refusal to take Maori issues seriously. What's surprising is that John Key doesn't rate better, despite his recent efforts. He may find solace in the fact his negatives aren't as high as his parties, but he'll be disappointed his positives aren't a lot better.

PREFERRED PRIME MINISTER:

18-28 September 2008

Total

Maori

Non-Maori

Main candidates

%

%

%

Helen Clark

34

38

32

John Key

28

10

36

Winston Peters

5

10

3

Pita Sharples

1.2

3.6

0.2

Tariana Turia

1

3

-

None

4

5

4

Don’t know

19

20

18

Base:

1365

420

945

With numbers like this, National's going to have to offer the Maori Party the sweetest of sweetheart deals if the Maori Party is going to be able to sell a right-sided coalition to the people it represents.

Comments (2)

What you seem to be overlooking is the appeal such an appalling combination of parties will have for voters. The foreboding prospect of a hodge podge of parties including NZ First in the mix will be a very frightening prospect for a lot of voters, especially considering recent history, especially in trying economic times.

This potential line-up may be a very compelling reason for voters to vote for national, just to get some certainty and stability, if for nothing else. Hence, I am predicting a landslide to National.

A labour/Greens/Maori coalition would be very unlikely. I don’t believe the Greens would be that stupid, having been shafted by Labour the last time. I don’t believe the Moari Party would be either, unless Labour are able to close the gap in the polls significantly, which would seem unlikely. National would have to make a horrible blunder between now and the election for that to happen.

While it may be unlikely National will maintain their current 50 percent vote come election day, they should still score around 45 percent of the vote. Labour on the other hand are unlikely to get to 40 percent, so National will be the clear winner on the day. In such circumstances any coalition that proposes to thwart the will of the people will be very divisive. No self-respecting political party would want to be part of such an arrangement.