An anti-aircraft
missile is seen at the Military Museum in Beijing in February 2007, one
month after China conducted its first successful antisatellite test.
Another trial appears set to occur in short order, according to the Union
of Concerned Scientists (AP Photo/Greg Baker).

WASHINGTON -- There are a number of signs that China is
preparing to soon carry out a fresh antisatellite test that if successful could
further demonstrate a capability to defeat incoming strategic ballistic missile
attacks, the Union of Concerned Scientists said on Friday.

There have been media reports for months of a
new antisatellite test in the works, according to Gregory Kulacki, the
organization's China project manager.

The Asian nuclear power’s most recent antisatellite trials in
2007 and
2010 both occurred on Jan. 11, but Kulacki in a Monday interview cautioned
that the rumored coming test would not necessarily take place this week.

In a
blog post, Kulacki said also his organization had heard from a senior U.S.
defense official that the Obama administration was worried China might carry out
another antisatellite trial in the near future.

“Given these high-level administration concerns, and past
Chinese practice, there seems to be a strong possibility that China will conduct
an ASAT test within the next few weeks,” the UCS senior analyst wrote on Friday.

In both previous efforts, China
launched an SC-19 missile, according to U.S. State Department cables
released by the antisecrecy group WikiLeaks. The SC-19 is understood to be a
modified, land-based version of one of the Dongfeng 21 ballistic missile with a
kinetic kill vehicle addition.

The technology has obvious applications as a ballistic
missile interceptor, Kulacki said, though he does not personally believe
another test would be aimed at sending a military message to the world. “I don’t
think it’s correct to interpret the testing program as a signal to the United
States.”

China’s own plans to in the coming years launch more than 20
new GPS satellites would give it a good reason not to carry out any
antisatellite actions or attacks that would produce more space debris to further
clutter up the same section of space it intends to use, according to Kulacki

The 2007 test that destroyed an old weather satellite
demonstrated a simpler capability to successfully target orbiting objects with
known flight trajectories. It also created a large quantity of space debris that
for decades will threaten orbiting spacecraft and caused some defense analysts
to worry that China might target foreign nations’ satellites.

A dummy warhead fired by a ballistic missile was used to
simulate a satellite in the 2010 test; as the interception did not target an
object in orbit, there was no resulting space debris. “This test is assessed to
have furthered both Chinese ASAT and ballistic missile defense (BMD)
technologies,” the State Department concluded in a leaked cable

Using the multipurpose SC-19 successfully again in another
trial against a mock warhead would build a case for the dependability of the
system in a missile defense situation in which the capacity to quickly calculate
a target’s flight path using supporting sensors is critical.

More than the 2007 trial, the 2010 test sent an overt signal
to the world on China’s missile defense capabilities, according to experts.

It is not clear whether the anticipated attempt would involve
the same technology as the past two ASAT tests or involve a system that does not
destroy satellites, Kulacki wrote.

Media reports indicate the expected next test will involve a
target at “a much higher orbit than the 2007 test,” which took place in low
orbit, roughly 528 miles above the Earth, Kulacki wrote.

The Obama administration should urge Beijing to abandon any
plans to carry out another ASAT test, which might cause a field of new space
debris similar to the 2007 test, Kulacki said. “They‘ve been watching this for a
while and they haven’t said a thing as far as we know and we think they should.”

The White House National Security Council by press time had
not responded to requests for comment.