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The FPC and the Quarterback Position

The Footballguys Players Championship Analysis - Looking at the Quarterback Position

by Jeff Pasquino, July 25Photo: Brett Davis, US Presswire

Footballguys continues to advance the world of fantasy football. With several additions to their offerings last year, the much heralded Best Online Content Site for 2009 joined the world of High Stakes Fantasy contests and made an instant splash. Joe Bryant and David Dodds teamed with David Gerczak and Alex Kaganovsky of the Fantasy Football Players Championship (myffpc.com) to create the first annual Footballguys Players Championship contest in 2010 and by all measures it was a huge success. Now the FPC and FFPC are back again for their fourth season, ready to knock it out of the park once again in 2013.

By studying the rules of both the FFPC and the FPC along with some of the history and previous performances by FPC players, insights can be found that will help many players to not only compete well in both contests but also to be in a position to win their league and be in the running for a top prize in the championship round.

As the summer rolls on, I will continue analyzing many aspects of the Footballguys Players Championship and the Fantasy Football Players Championship. Through these articles I hope to provide extra help with fully understanding how to best build a top notch fantasy team within the contest. As someone who has competed against the best players in the world and in several contests much like the FPC and the FFPC, I fully understand how every possible advantage and extra edge can make all the difference in the world.

The Quarterback Position

Under the microscope this time around is the position of quarterback. According the rules of the Footballguys Players Championship, the rosters are as follows:

So how do you analyze the impact of this scoring system to the current crop of potential fantasy quarterbacks? We need to dig into some numbers.

First, let's take a look at both the projected scores for the Top 30 quarterbacks this season and calculate some VBD numbers using the worst starter method (QB12 has VBD = 0). The results are in Table 1:

Rank

Points

VBD

Rank

Points

VBD

1

365.8

60

16

265.4

-40

2

341.1

35

17

262.7

-43

3

336.1

30

18

260.9

-45

4

334.5

29

19

258.4

-47

5

331.1

25

20

253.1

-53

6

323.2

17

21

247.9

-58

7

320.2

14

22

245.3

-60

8

314.4

9

23

243.9

-62

9

309.2

3

24

236.5

-69

10

307.1

1

25

235.9

-70

11

306.6

1

26

227.1

-79

12

305.8

0

27

221.5

-84

13

271.4

-34

28

216.9

-89

14

268.4

-37

29

205.4

-100

15

265.9

-40

30

151.8

-154

Table 1: FPC Projected Fantasy Points For Top 30 Quarterbacks

The VBD does not do much for a complete analysis without some context of other positions. Looking at the Draft Dominator, we can run a mock draft to get a feel for when the various quarterbacks are slated to come off of the draft board. Table 2 gives some more insight as to when the mock draft says to take a signal caller:

Rank

Points

VBD

DD ADP

Rank

Points

VBD

DD ADP

1

365.8

60

26

16

265.4

-40

121

2

341.1

35

51

17

262.7

-43

136

3

336.1

30

52

18

260.9

-45

137

4

334.5

29

55

19

258.4

-47

139

5

331.1

25

56

20

253.1

-53

140

6

323.2

17

57

21

247.9

-58

158

7

320.2

14

58

22

245.3

-60

172

8

314.4

9

60

23

243.9

-62

179

9

309.2

3

61

24

236.5

-69

193

10

307.1

1

62

25

235.9

-70

194

11

306.6

1

63

26

227.1

-79

195

12

305.8

0

66

27

221.5

-84

197

13

271.4

-34

159

28

216.9

-89

240+

14

268.4

-37

194

29

205.4

-100

240+

15

265.9

-40

205

30

151.8

-154

240+

Table 2: Draft Dominator FPC Mock - ADP For Top 30 Quarterbacks

Based on the results, quarterbacks go about one per round for Rounds 1-6 and then a run comes in Rounds 7 and 8. This is great for a mock draft, but how about some real life comparisons? This is great for a mock draft, but how about some real life comparisons? With the help of Clayton Gray here at Footballguys, he has pulled together some great ADP data based on early FPC drafts and created current ADP data for all of the top players. Here are both ADPs compared side-by-side and their relative differences:

The ADP has the first five quarterbacks going earlier than expected. This is most likely due to one or two owners trying to compensate for missing out on the first 4-6 running backs off the draft board.

After the top 5-6 quarterbacks are gone, the rest of the league will tend to wait for the next tier of quarterbacks to be selected. With half of the league already having a starter and 6-7 more options, there tends to be no rush to fill out the position.

A run can be expected in or near Rounds 6-8. There are about a dozen elite-quality quarterbacks (or should I say 10-12 QBs projected to be elite) so once they start to get picked many teams will want to grab one.

Every fantasy team should expect to have their starting quarterback by the end of Round 9 or 10 (or the 9-10 turn).

Another key item to note is that backup QBs (QBs 13-20) are going faster as well. That reflects that the league does not have strong depth at starting quarterback after the Top 12 are gone, and several NFL teams lack good QBs.

Parting Thoughts

Every fantasy league and its rulebook are a little different. For the FPC and the FFPC, the quarterback position is not nearly as emphasized as it may be in other leagues. The reduced scoring for passing touchdowns (only four points per TD pass) shrinks the disparity between the elite and the very good NFL quarterbacks. Based on Table 1 alone, only five quarterbacks are projected to top 330 fantasy points while the difference between the QB1 and QB12 is only about four points per game. The top 4-5 quarterbacks this year are predicted to have huge years, which explains why most of them are gone before the end of Round 4 of many FPC drafts, but after that the difference between the quarterbacks is so minor (QB6 and QB12 are only 1-2 points per game apart). This is why many suggest to wait on quarterback and go with either a committee approach or to grab one of the last elite-caliber quarterbacks near or during the inevitable quarterback run around Round 9.

The benefits of being both disciplined and being able to wait at the quarterback position are huge in the FPC. With seven other positional players in a starting lineup (2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE and two flex), a patient team owner can grab their starters and then be one of the last to snag their team quarterback. Given that QB12 is only about four points per game below QB1 (or projected to be that much) and just 1-2 below QB6, the "penalty" of waiting an extra 5-6 rounds to draft a quarterback is greatly outweighed by the advantage of filling the rest of the starting lineup.

It takes a little time to get your mind wrapped around a new contest with a new set of rules, but the time spent is often well worth it if the goal is to field a competitive team. Giving a little bit of effort to get a greater understanding of the twists and turns to the rulebook can give turn a good fantasy player into a great one and a great player into a dominant force. Knowledge is power - so be as powerful as you can!