Not only do the Baltimore Ravens face the Detroit Lions Monday night—with both teams and no fewer than four others sweating out the result—they face a daunting recent history. Of the previous seven teams to win the Super Bowl, three missed the playoffs the following season, and the other four lost their first playoff game.

Losing to the Lions, then, would be devastating, but the situation it would create wouldn’t be unprecedented. In the Ravens’ case, it shouldn’t be unexpected, either.

Even at 7-6, they control their playoff fate—they win the AFC North if they win their final three games, including their season finale in Cincinnati. They already have won three in a row. Little about that streak, though, indicates they can replicate it down the stretch.

The three teams they beat, the Jets, Steelers and Vikings, all have losing records; they won the last two by a total of five points, and did that with, respectively, stopping a possible game-tying two-point conversion with 1:03 left, and scoring the game-winning touchdown with four seconds to go.

The wins also were all at home, where the Ravens are 6-1. Two of their last three are on the road (1-5), and in between is a home date with the Patriots.

Last year, they caught fire in the playoffs away from home, but they also started 9-2 and were not in danger of missing the postseason completely.

These Ravens’ shortcomings so far, and the player losses since their Super run, are well-documented. Starting Monday, they’ll need to make the most of what they have—or else.

Four of their wins have been by three points or fewer, and so have four of their losses. Joe Flacco has passed them to victories (the last-second rescue against the Vikings) and to defeats (five interceptions in Buffalo). His 17 interceptions are the most by any quarterback not playing home games in East Rutherford, N.J.; it’s inexcusable for both the reigning Super Bowl MVP and the recipient of one of the biggest contracts of the past offseason.

There are signs he could be getting the weapons he badly needs, when he needs them most. Tight end Dennis Pitta only returned last week from preseason hip surgery. Marlon Brown caught the game-winner against Minnesota and may have arrived as the complement to Torrey Smith at wide receiver. Jacoby Jones may also have arrived, as the kind of threat on offense that he is on kick returns.

On the other hand … the Ravens simply cannot run the ball. They begin the night third-worst in the NFL in rushing yards and rock-bottom in yards per carry. The Lions let LeSean McCoy run all over them in the fourth quarter in the snow in Philadelphia last week, but they still have the fifth-stingiest run defense in the league … and nobody on the Ravens is running like McCoy this season.

Certainly not Ray Rice. He has topped 1,600 combined yards from scrimmage in each of the previous four seasons, going over 2,000 twice—and this season, at his current pace, he’ll get over 1,000, but not by much.

But the Ravens still play defense, right? Very well, most of the time. Except, for example, at the end of the Steelers and Vikings games, although the team pulled out wins anyway. And there’s the matter of the Lions’ Calvin Johnson, who Ravens rookie safety Matt Elam last week publicly decided was “pretty old.”

None of which is to say the Ravens are staring at a loss Monday night.

But the Lions, history and their own issues are a lot to overcome in one game.