Our Academy Awards Predictions

If you will give us a moment, we are going to defend the Oscars.

February 22, 2016

If you will give
us a moment, we are going to defend the Oscars.

We are not going
to defend their record of diversity, because it is indefensible. We are not
going to defend the actual awards show, which turns the reading of names off an
envelope into a bloated four-hour exercise in self-absorption. And we are not
going to defend that time they let Seth MacFarlane host, because we’re pretty
sure that’s the worst thing that ever happened.

But we are going
to defend the Academy Awards as an institution that, ultimately, does more good
than harm. The movie industry is one that, left to its own devices without some
sort of little chrome man to make it feel better about itself at the end of the
year, would never deign to make anything
halfway decent; imagine that new announcement that Paramount is making Transformers movies for the next four
years, and imagine that happening every
week. The moviegoing public buys dreck, so Hollywood makes it. It’s not
that different than fast food, or reality television, or Presidential
elections.

The Oscars,
though, give them something to shoot for. Sure, it’s self-interest: Rich,
famous, pretty people wanting to be Taken Seriously, the fourth plank in their
Desk of Self-Actualization. But if it results in better movies, why should we
as an audience care? Sure, we get as exhausted of hacky Oscar bait like Trumbo,Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, and The Theory of Everything as everyone else does. But there are
financial incentives for studios to go after Oscars, and this is an industry
that thinks solely of financial incentives. Do movies like Room, or Carol, or Nebraska, or Beasts of the Southern Wild—fine small movies all—do they even exist if someone with money doesn’t
think they have a chance to win an Oscar?

Your favorite
movie is probably not going to win an Oscar, and you’ll surely complain about
whatever movies and actors do. But on the whole, there are more good movies
because the Oscars exist than there would be otherwise. For all the many problems
with the Oscars, that’s good enough for us.

Here are our
annual wrong predictions for who will win the eight major categories at the
Academy Awards on Sunday night.

Leitch:The Big Short has
been the biggest surprise of the Oscar season, riding a wave of positive
publicity and audience enthusiasm to become one of the three favorites for Best
Picture. It’s the only one of those three films—the others are Spotlight and The Revenant—to be nominated in this category, a category that
rewards the movie’s best element. The film might not make it all the way to the
finish line in the Best Picture race, but at the minimum, it’s a cinch here.

Grierson: Let’s take a moment to reflect on how
strange it’s going to be to affix the title “Academy Award-winner” to Adam
McKay’s name from now on. The director and co-writer of Will Ferrell smashes
such as Anchorman and Talladega Nights, he (alongside cowriter
Charles Randolph) sculpted Michael Lewis’s nonfiction book into a brisk, very
funny, openly angry condemnation of the 2008 financial crisis that nearly sunk
the country. For a brief moment after The Big Shortwon the PGA Award, there was talk that maybe this comedy
could go all the way and snag Best Picture. That looks a lot less likely now,
but Best Adapted Screenplay will be the Academy’s chance to show the film some
love.

Leitch:That The
Revenant—many people’s pick to win Best Picture—isn’t even nominated here
is a bit of a baffling oversight. Maybe the Academy just didn’t imagine all
those “grunt”s written down? Either way, as much fun as it might be to imagine
the Coen brothers getting a fluke fifth Oscar for a Steven Spielberg movie,
this one is Spotlight’s to lose. The only major criticism we’ve heard of
the film is its lack of visual flair, but no one contests the tautness of the
screenplay. Maybe McCarthy will apologize for The Cobbler in his speech?

Grierson:With Inside
Out as the only possible upset, this screenplay prize seems a shoe-in for Spotlight
writers Josh Singer and Tom McCarthy. What has become clear as this year’s
Oscar season has rolled along is that voters admire Spotlight’s lean, intelligent script more than its subdued,
economical storytelling, so a screenplay win makes a lot of sense. (Plus, it’ll
give the Academy a chance to honor McCarthy, who also directed the movie but
has no chance in that category.)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Christian Bale, The Big Short

Tom Hardy, The Revenant

Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies

Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight

Sylvester
Stallone, Creed

Leitch: The case for Rylance is that he’s the
best part of a well-regarded film. The case for Hardy is that he’s the showy
bad guy in a film favored to win Best Picture. The case for Ruffalo is that
he’s the standout in a crazy-deep cast of supporting roles. The case for Bale
is actually similar to Ruffalo’s. These are not bad cases, but none of them are
as strong as the case for Sylvester
Stallone, which has the trifecta of: a) a man who has made the industry a ton of money playing his most beloved,
profitable character; b) a man who has never won an Oscar and in fact had his
last nomination 39 years ago; c) a
man starring in a film made, produced by, and starring African-Americans in a
year when #OscarsSoWhite is the dominant conversation. Sort of strange that we
live in a time that Sylvester Stallone, of all freaking people, would benefit
from an industry’s collective guilt spasm about diversity, but here we are.

Grierson:If Christian Bale pulls off the upset,
then The Big Short’s Best Picture
chances suddenly start to look a whole lot better. Ditto Mark Ruffalo and Spotlight. (And if Tom Hardy wins, well,
The Revenant is going to have an even
better night than prognosticators thought.) But the two most likely winners are
Mark Rylance and Sylvester Stallone, with Stallone quickly establishing himself
as the sentimental favorite. Academy voters love industry veterans in the midst
of a feel-good comeback story, and Stallone fits the bill perfectly. In 1977, Rocky won Best Picture, while Stallone
lost Best Actor and Best Original Screenplay. Sunday night, Sylvester Stallone finally gets his
Oscar for playing the same character.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Jennifer Jason
Leigh, The Hateful Eight

Rooney Mara, Carol

Rachel McAdams, Spotlight

Alicia Vikander,
The Danish Girl

Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Leitch: Winslet might have had a better chance if
Steve Jobs had more lift to it, and
it would have been a perfect comeback year for Jennifer Jason Leigh if The Hateful Eight hadn’t left so many
people, particularly women, feeling sour about it. (Mara would have had a real
shot too if Carol had caught on
more.) With no obvious standout, the pick here is Alicia Vikander, who had a breakthrough year with both The Danish Girl and Ex Machina, and will be starring opposite Matt Damon in this
summer’s new Bourne film.

Grierson: A category that at one point seemed to
belong to Rooney Mara has now irreversibly shifted toward Alicia Vikander, whose breakout 2015 is about to be capped by an
Oscar. Her win is no slam-dunk—The Danish
Girl was only a bit player in this year’s awards season, and Vikander is
still a relative newcomer—but it’s hard to make a compelling case for any of
her competitors. Steve Jobs has been
largely forgotten—and Winslet’s won an Oscar already—and Mara’s muted
performance doesn’t deliver the sort of emotional fireworks Academy members
usually like. (As for Jennifer Jason Leigh and Rachel McAdams, they’re
relegated to the happy-just-to-be-nominated realm.) So the pick here is
Vikander—but get ready for Film Twitter to remind folks that she was even
better in Ex Machina right as she
heads to the podium to accept her award.

BEST ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett, Carol

Brie Larson, Room

Jennifer
Lawrence, Joy

Charlotte
Rampling, 45 Years

Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Leitch: If you squint, you can maybe make a case
for Ronan, who effortlessly carries a well-reviewed film that makes old people—the
primary demographic of the academy— comfortable and happy. Blanchett and
Lawrence have won too recently and Rampling—well, let’s just say this is, uh, probably
not her year. Brie Larson has
had this wrapped up for months.

Grierson: Perhaps an argument could be made for
Charlotte Rampling, who just turned 70 and had never been nominated for an
Oscar. But her regrettable comments about #OscarsSoWhite have probably sunk any chance for an
upset. Cate Blanchett and Jennifer Lawrence have already won Oscars, and the
Academy doesn’t seem particularly enamored of their latest movies. As for
Saoirse Ronan, she’s not yet 22 and has already earned two Oscar
nominations—her previous one was for Atonement—but
Brooklyn doesn’t seem to have the
necessary momentum to put her in the winner’s circle. That leaves Brie Larson, whose Room received four nominations in major categories. Best Actress is
the most likely victory for this dark but ultimately feel-good drama.

BEST ACTOR

Bryan Cranston, Trumbo

Matt Damon, The Martian

Leonardo
DiCaprio, The Revenant

Michael
Fassbender, Steve Jobs

Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Leitch:Not to put too fine a point on it, but
this person is not wrong.

At the end of The Revenant, Leonardo DiCaprio looks in the camera and begs for the Oscar

And I like the
movie! But yes: If Leonardo DiCaprio doesn’t
win this, he’s going to eat someone in the audience. Maybe Eddie Redmayne.

Grierson: It’s been assumed since The Revenant started screening in early
December that Best Actor was Leonardo DiCaprio’s
to lose. Nothing’s changed since then. Is this his greatest performance? Probably not, but it’s a muscular, go-for-broke
portrayal that’s intense and deeply emotional—all adjectives that are catnip to
Academy voters. Add in the fact that so many in the industry think that he’s
due, and you’ve got an Oscar sure thing. Five years from now, you’re going to
be hard-pressed to even remember who else was nominated alongside him.

BEST DIRECTOR

Lenny Abrahamson,
Room

Alejandro
González Inñárritu, The Revenant

Tom McCarthy, Spotlight

Adam McKay, The Big Short

George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

Leitch:I’m super tempted to go with Miller here,
with his career-capping achievement for a film that everybody loves but will likely
only end up with technical awards. And McKay has been such a presence on the
media circuit that he’s only helped himself. But there’s a Revenant wave right now, and it’s difficult to see it cresting
without Alejandro González Inñárritu winning
his second consecutive Best Director Oscar.

Grierson: Once Ridley Scott failed to snag a
nomination, Best Director suddenly became a lot more wide open. Room doesn’t have the heat to propel
newcomer Lenny Abrahamson to a win, and McCarthy and McKay will probably have
to settle for screenplay Oscars. That leaves the men behind two brawny epics. A
win for George Miller would be an acknowledgment of his legacy as a
groundbreaking action filmmaker—a lifetime-achievement award, of sorts—capped
by the gonzo Mad Max: Fury Road,
while Alejandro G. Iñárritu’s
triumph would put him in rarefied company. (Only Joseph L. Mankiewicz and John
Ford have won Best Director in back-to-back years.) It’s a close call, but Team
Revenant have done a superb job of
creating a compelling narrative around how arduous their movie was to make.
That sales job is resonating with Oscar voters, who will want to honor the
director who kept the boat afloat.

BEST PICTURE

The Big Short

Bridge of Spies

Brooklyn

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Martian

The Revenant

Room

Spotlight

Leitch:It’s difficult to remember the last time three movies, coming down the home
stretch, all had a legitimate chance to win. (Last year, Birdman and Boyhood were
fighting late, too.) Spotlight was the
early favorite and remains an audience pleaser. The Big Short was the shocker, the underdog that stunned everyone
and has shown considerable staying power. But you cannot ignore the trends, and
the fact is, The Revenant has swept all the recent awards, including the
powerful indicator that is the Producers Guild Awards. I’m still a little
nervous about one director’s films winning two straight Best Pictures, which
has never happened before, but that film has all the momentum. I want to bet
against it, but I won’t.

Grierson:This is a three-film race between The Big Short, The Revenant, and Spotlight,
with each nominee earning sufficient kudos during this awards season. But it
would be madness to bet against The Revenant. Others have tried to lay out reasons why this rugged survival tale might not
walk away with the top prize, but none of the arguments hold much water. For
the first time since Titanic, a movie
that failed to get a screenplay nomination will win Best Picture—and The Revenant will make Academy history
when Iñárritu becomes the first director to helm back-to-back Best Picture
champs. Plus, The Revenant is one of the
highest-grossing of the eight nominees, and it’s peaking at the right time.
Like Leo’s trapper character furiously and relentlessly working his way across
the untamed American West, nothing can stop The
Revenant from reaching its final destination.

For more on the Oscars, we recommend this episode of the Grierson & Leitch podcast: