Wright says EVs will always be pricey and nothing more than a niche market.

Ian Wright, electric-vehicle specialist and one of the early guiding lights of , believes EVs will never be more than a niche market; this, despite the federal government's billions of dollars of investments and its stated goal of making EVs fully half our national fleet by 2030. The keynote speaker at the Custom Integrated Circuits Conference in San Jose, California, Wright said, "The high cost of batteries will keep pure electric vehicles such as the Nissan Leaf and out of the mainstream consumer market. You will get early adopters with the Leaf, but you will not get to a mass market. Today's Chevy Volt is well designed, but will cost about twice as much as a similar gas vehicle.

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"Gas prices," Wright said, "will have to soar above $10 per gallon to make such consumer EVs economical, even at lower battery costs." He also cited charging time as another limiting factor in mass-market EV acceptance.

One reason I sit up and listen is remembering our "" article, in which Wright's fabulous Wrightspeed X1 was one of the cars tested. Briefly, his electric conversion of an Ariel Atom leapt from 0 to 60 mph in 2.9 seconds and posted quarter-mile results of 11.6 seconds at 103.3 mph. To wit: Wright knows his way around automotive electrons. What's more, I also respect his views concerning EVs and the enthusiast. Indeed, Ian was not one of my sources in "" appearing in our November issue and here at roadandtrack.com. However, his views coincide with what others suggested: Cars such as the Nissan Leaf, Chevy Volt, Mitsubishi i-MiEV and others coming will establish a niche market—even, and perhaps especially, among enthusiasts. But they'll play only a peripheral role in the overall automotive scene.

Noted Wright, "The economics don't work without massive subsidies. We can't even afford to fix potholes in the road, so where are we going to get trillions for battery charge stations?"

Part of me hopes he's being overly pessimistic. But I respect Ian Wright and worry that he speaks with real insight.