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16.01.2017 11:34 These 5 Trends Will Shape the Global Economy in 2017

Every year brings its share of events that take us by surprise and shake up the global economy. Few prognosticators saw Britain voting to leave the European Union in 2016, though the decision will likely have important implications for global trade in the coming years. And it almost goes without saying that most polls and pundits failed to anticipate Donald Trump`s election victory in the U.S. That said, many of the economic trends that shape our world can be spotted ahead of time by careful observers. Whether it`s the return of fiscal stimulus under a Trump administration, or the Federal Reserve`s plans to accelerate the pace of interest rate hikes, here are 5 trends to focus on in the new year.

14.01.2017 22:07 IMF: Russian economy to grow steadily in next 5 years, but has capacity for more

Russia will see average GDP growth of 1.5 percent in the next five years, according to International Monetary Fund (IMF) Deputy Managing Director David Lipton. However, he told the Gaidar Economic Forum in Moscow the country should strive for faster growth. In an interview with TASS news agency, Lipton confirmed October`s IMF forecast that predicts global growth of 3.8 percent by 2021, with the Russian economy to grow significantly slower at 1.5 percent. According to Lipton, Russia should implement some policy changes, reforms and structural changes that will increase the capacity of the economy to catch up with global growth rates. The eighth annual Gaidar Forum takes place from January 12 to 14, 2017 in the Russian capital. This year, it focuses on the analysis of the current economic situation and economic growth prospects in Russia and will cover financial and social policy issues, business climate and priorities for regional development in the country.

A tentative pickup in the global economy this year is at risk from the political uncertainty unleashed by Brexit and the arrival of Donald Trump in the White House, the World Bank has said. The Washington-based organisation said 2016 had been the weakest year for the global economy since the deep recession of 2008-09 and expressed concern that protectionist pressures would continue to increase unless the pace of activity picked up. Announcing the findings of its annual Global Economic Prospects (GEP), the bank said global growth had failed to meet its forecast every year since 2011. A sluggish performance by the US and recessions in large commodity-dependent economies kept expansion in the world economy to 2.3%, down from 2.7% in 2015.

10.01.2017 20:02 Predictions for the economy and investments in 2017

The UK economy will perform better than many anticipate, predicts Richard Stone, chief executive of The Share Centre. He thinks that there will be the first interest rate rise in the UK for nearly 10 years. Stone believes the UK economy will continue to perform more strongly than anticipated. "Unemployment remains low and employment is at near record levels. "The boost from sterling"s devaluation will continue to feed through - particularly for exporters to the EU who still have unfettered access to the single market but with substantially lower pricing in euro terms." January will see the inauguration of president Donald Trump and we will then start to see how his policy pronouncements play out. In the US the power of the president is constrained by the checks and balances inherent in the system, particularly in Congress. But the president still has significant sway on foreign policy and trade. Commenting on the US economy, Stone says that it is building a reasonable recovery.

08.01.2017 20:27 Will Be 2017 Russia`s Turnaround Year?

Via its ever-energetic propaganda machine, Russia has signaled to the world that it is a resurgent nation heading for strong economic growth in the coming years. The firm Rosstat claimed that industrial production in the first 11 months of 2016 rose 0.8% compared to 2015. Additionally, the Russian Ministry of Economic Development revised its outlook for industrial production in 2016 to 1% compared to the previous 0.4%. Russia`s Finance Minister Anton Siluanov suggested that economic growth could accelerate to 1.5% in 2017 – nothing too extravagant, but a very positive direction following the negative growth Russia has experienced in recent years. Although seemingly impressive, these estimates must be treated with great caution.

The economic outlook for this year looks similar to 2016 - uneven and unspectacular, according to economists worldwide polled by Reuters in December. The result is despite investor optimism about a breakout for the world economy. Many of the experts said the global trade slowdown, seen during the slight recovery from the financial crisis that started nearly a decade ago, could worsen. Emerging economies are expected to remain vulnerable. Much of Asia will grow below potential, putting the latest global growth forecast for 2017 at 3.2 percent. The projection is less optimistic than for the previous year. Economists called accelerating inflation and a soaring US dollar among the risks to the economic balance. Dollar strength, weakening other currencies, will influence how emerging markets manage relatively higher inflation, as well as falling business confidence, they said.

The U.K. broke away from the European Union, Americans elected Donald Trump for president, and despite all the doom and gloom the world economy has clung on to its track. Considering all these surprises, can Wall Street really predict what 2017 will bring? Probably not. Nonetheless, taking a hard look at economic data, historical trends, and social media(in one case), the Street`s biggest banks took a stab at it anyway. Plenty of the banks were predicting that Trump would lower taxes and reduce regulation. But Fortune has picked through Wall Street`s analysts 2017 outlook reports to find the most interesting predictions for the coming, unprecedented, new year.

31.12.2016 13:44 Russians are getting worried about 2017

The outgoing year was a series of extraordinary events, including many genuine shocks, by anyone`s standards. But for many Russians, it also may be the year that country began to come in from the cold – overcoming three years of international sanctions and isolation, demonstrating their national unity behind President Vladimir Putin, and even rolling back the worst economic recession in almost two decades. Kremlin policies appear to be triumphing in Syria and even Ukraine, while Moscow`s adversaries in the West seem to be mired in disarray. Most economists believe Russia`s beleaguered economy will return to at least anemic growth in 2017. Mr. Putin enjoys public approval ratings of higher than 80 percent, and voters handed his party a massive victory in last September`s parliamentary elections.

After more than two years of recession Elvira Nabiullina, Russia`s central bank governor, had good news to offer. Russia, which has struggled to get over a slump triggered by a sharp drop in oil prices and by western sanctions, was set for “slight positive growth in GDP” in the current quarter, she said. With oil prices ticking up, and hopes that a US administration led by Donald Trump could bring at least some sanctions relief, some investors have taken the view that Russia`s recovery can gather steam. International funds are taking an interest in Russian stocks again, with the Micex, the main stock market index, soaring 27 per cent this year. Inside Russia, though, expectations are far more muted. Most people have yet to feel any economic stabilisation. Real incomes continue to shrink. Inflation, although expected by the central bank to drop to under 5.8 per cent by the end of the year from more than 15 per cent last December, continues to eat into pensions and salaries. Consumers remain timid: retail sales fell 4.4 per cent in October, year on year.

27.12.2016 10:25 Russia`s politics blights its economic outlook

Capping what president Vladimir Putin must feel has been a good year for Russia, Moscow`s stock market is one of 2016`s best performers. Despite sanctions restricting banks` and oil companies` access to western finance, Russian equities are up about 27 per cent in local currency and 47 per cent in dollar terms. Yet this recovery is linked almost entirely to short-term external factors rather than long-term fundamentals. Oil prices, Russia`s economic lifeblood, are up about 50 per cent from a year ago. Little surprise, then, that equities and the rouble should have strengthened. Investors are also betting on a “Trump trade” - a deal between Mr Putin and the incoming US president that eases sanctions. The outlook remains anaemic. Russia is just pulling out of a two-year recession. Output contracted about 0.6 per cent this year. Assuming sanctions remain, international forecasters see economic growth of perhaps 1.2 per cent next year, and 1.5 per cent in 2018 and beyond. That lags behind global growth, the US, and even the EU.