February 19, 2012

Romney gaining on Santorum in Michigan

Raleigh, N.C. – The Republican race for President in Michigan has tightened considerably over the last week, with what was a 15 point lead for Rick Santorum down to 4. He leads with 37% to 33% for Mitt Romney, 15% for Ron Paul, and 10% for Newt Gingrich.

The tightening over the last week is much more a function of Romney gaining than Santorum falling. Santorum's favorability spread of 67/23 has seen no change since our last poll, and his share of the vote has dropped only 2 points from 39% to 37%. Romney meanwhile has seen his net favorability improve 10 points from +10 (49/39) to +20 (55/35) and his vote share go from 24% to 33%.

Romney is leading the field with women (38-34), seniors (42-34), moderates (35-24), 'somewhat conservative' voters (40-34), and Catholics (43-31).

Santorum's advantage over Romney seems to be a reflection of voters being more comfortable with where he is ideologically. 48% of voters think Santorum has more similar beliefs to them, compared to only 32% who pick Romney on that question. 63% of primary voters think Santorum's views are 'about right' compared to only 42% who say that for Romney. 37% believe that Romney is 'too liberal.'

“Rick Santorum continues to have the lead in Michigan, but momentum is now on Mitt Romney’s side,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Romney’s supporters are also more committed than Santorum’s, so there’s reason to believe this could get even closer in the final week of the campaign.”

PPP surveyed 602 Republican primary between February 17th and 19th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-4.0%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. PPP is a Democratic polling company, but polling expert Nate Silver of the New York Times found that its surveys in 2010 actually exhibited a slight bias toward Republican candidates.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q1 Do you plan to vote in the Republican primaryor the Democratic primary, or are you not sure?Republican primary........................................100%Democratic primary......................................... 0%Not sure .......................................................... 0%

Q3 Would you say you are strongly committed tothat candidate, or might you end up supportingsomeone else?Strongly committed to that candidate.............. 64%Might end up supporting someone else .......... 36%

Q10 Does Rick Snyder’s endorsement make youmore or less likely to vote for Mitt Romney, ordoes it not make a difference?More likely....................................................... 13%Less likely ....................................................... 28%Doesn't make a difference .............................. 57%Not sure .......................................................... 2%

Q11 If a candidate opposed the bailout of the autoindustry, would that make you more or lesslikely to vote for them, or would it not make adifference?More likely....................................................... 34%Less likely ....................................................... 27%Wouldn't make a difference............................. 35%Not sure .......................................................... 5%

Q12 Do you consider Mitt Romney to be aMichigander, or not?Consider him a Michigander ........................... 29%Do not ............................................................. 62%Not sure .......................................................... 9%

Q15 Who do you think has more similar politicalbeliefs to you, Mitt Romney or Rick Santorum?Mitt Romney.................................................... 32%Rick Santorum................................................ 48%Not sure .......................................................... 19%

Q16 Would you rather have a beer with MittRomney or Rick Santorum?Mitt Romney.................................................... 29%Rick Santorum................................................ 42%Not sure .......................................................... 29%

Q17 Do you think Newt Gingrich should drop out ofthe Presidential race, or not?He should drop out ......................................... 47%He should not.................................................. 40%Not sure .......................................................... 13%

Q18 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.Woman ........................................................... 47%Man................................................................. 53%

Q19 If you are 18 to 45 years old, press 1. If 46 to65, press 2. If you are older than 65, press 3.18 to 45........................................................... 35%46 to 65........................................................... 40%Older than 65.................................................. 25%

Q21 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If aRepublican, press 2. If you are an independentor identify with another party, press 3.Democrat ........................................................ 5%Republican...................................................... 68%Independent/Other.......................................... 27%

Q22 Do you consider yourself to be a member ofthe Tea Party?Yes.................................................................. 25%No ................................................................... 60%Not sure .......................................................... 15%

Q23 Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?Are an Evangelical.......................................... 41%Are not ............................................................ 59%

Q24 Are you or is anyone in your household amember of a labor union?Yes.................................................................. 27%No ................................................................... 73%

Q26 Which of the following best describes thehighest level of education you completed:some high school but did not finish, high schoolgraduate, some college but did not finish, twoyearcollege degree, four-year college degree,some graduate work, or post-graduate degree?Some high school ........................................... 3%High school graduate...................................... 14%Some college .................................................. 19%Two-year degree............................................. 10%Four-year degree ............................................ 21%Some graduate work....................................... 12%Post-grad degree ............................................ 13%Something else/Don't care to say ................... 7%

Q27 Are you Catholic, Protestant, Jewish, Muslim,some other religion, or no religion at all?Catholic........................................................... 27%Protestant ....................................................... 43%Jewish............................................................. 2%Muslim ............................................................ 1%Some other religion......................................... 11%No religion at all .............................................. 7%Don't care to say............................................. 9%

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