...INCREASING RISK FOR LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...DMGG WINDS AND STRONG TORNADOES THROUGH THE EVENING OVER A LARGE PART OF AR AND NRN LA AND POINTS EWD...

21Z JACKSON SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT THE CAP HAS ERODED. INCREASING ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WAS RESULTING IN NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS SPROUTING INTO TSTMS. STRONG WIND PROFILES AND MAGNITUDE OF LOW-LVL SHEAR IN PLACE /LZK VWP SRH 330+ M2/S2/ ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ATTENDANT RISKS FOR STRONG TORNADOES...DMGG WINDS AND VERY LARGE HAIL. THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR COVERS A LARGE REGION OVER THE MID-SOUTH AND ANY STORM THAT BECOMES ESTABLISHED COULD BE LONG-LIVED.

LATER THIS EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO ENTER WRN PORTIONS OF THE WW WITH ADDITIONAL RISKS FOR SVR TSTMS WITH ALL FACETS OF SVR WEATHER PSBL.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH OF CAPE GIRARDEAU MISSOURI TO 25 MILES EAST OF JACKSON MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...COMPLEX SITUATION EVOLVING THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE OPEN WARM SECTOR FROM MS NWD INTO WRN TN/KY. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO NW MS FROM AR/LA...AND INTO TN/KY/IL/INDIANA FROM THE W BY EARLY TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC SYSTEM NOW LOCATED FARTHER TO THE W. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S COVER A WIDE AREA...WHILE LOCAL VWP/S AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE WARM SECTOR. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A THREAT FOR SCATTERED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY SUPERCELLS/BOW ECHOES WITH THE LATER CONVECTION TONIGHT. A FEW STRONG TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL INCREASE AS WELL INTO TONIGHT AS THE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION MOVES E OF THE MS RIVER.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23050.

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I have been posting about Alabama weather on this blog since April 2006. Here you will find my observations, information provided by the NWS, links to quality weather information from other sources, and historical weather data. Please "follow" me on Twitter and join my "fan" page on Facebook. Twitter and Facebook posts are usually more current/breaking news. I appreciate your visit. Enjoy and come back soon. Thank you!