In preparation for moving to a simpler "lazy portfolio" style of investing I sold everything in my retirement portfolio on 12/3/18. So I am now 100% cash. Got a little lucky on the timing, but now I need to figure out when to get back in. With the huge drop in the DOW looks like it would be a good time... or is this be the beginning of a long slide down. Of course nobody really knows, but I do need to get back in at some point. Any thoughts?

In preparation for moving to a simpler "lazy portfolio" style of investing I sold everything in my retirement portfolio on 12/3/18. So I am now 100% cash. Got a little lucky on the timing, but now I need to figure out when to get back in. With the huge drop in the DOW looks like it would be a good time... or is this be the beginning of a long slide down. Of course nobody really knows, but I do need to get back in at some point. Any thoughts?

If it were me, I'd get right back in. Today. Time in the market counts, and if you were to get back in today, you'd certainly be no worse off than if you hadn't sold.

It’s taken me a lot of years, but I’ve come around to this: If you’re dumb, surround yourself with smart people. And if you’re smart, surround yourself with smart people who disagree with you.

In preparation for moving to a simpler "lazy portfolio" style of investing I sold everything in my retirement portfolio on 12/3/18. So I am now 100% cash. Got a little lucky on the timing, but now I need to figure out when to get back in. With the huge drop in the DOW looks like it would be a good time... or is this be the beginning of a long slide down. Of course nobody really knows, but I do need to get back in at some point. Any thoughts?

If it were me, I'd get right back in. Today. Time in the market counts, and if you were to get back in today, you'd certainly be no worse off than if you hadn't sold.

In preparation for moving to a simpler "lazy portfolio" style of investing I sold everything in my retirement portfolio on 12/3/18. So I am now 100% cash. Got a little lucky on the timing, but now I need to figure out when to get back in. With the huge drop in the DOW looks like it would be a good time... or is this be the beginning of a long slide down. Of course nobody really knows, but I do need to get back in at some point. Any thoughts?

If any of us knew how to time the market like that, we'd be replying to this question from our private jets.

Personally, I'm replying from a 10 year old computer sitting on a recycled desk.

Ah, the market timers' dilemma. Now that you've sold, when to get back in? The answer is now; but, be sure you choose an asset allocation that fits your need, ability and willingness to accept the risks necessary to meet your goals. Then stay the course.

I've had the same AA for more than a decade - but, looking back, it's been an easy decade to stay on track.

Best of luck.

FI is the best revenge. LBYM. Invest the rest. Stay the course. - PS: The calvary isn't coming, kids. You are on your own.

Personally I'd dollar-cost-average back in, once you've chosen your asset allocation. Something like 20% every 2 weeks until you're fully back in. Pushing 100% in today during this Trump/China/yield inversion scare-fest would bother me. At TD Ameritrade, with a 3-fund portfolio, this would cost me about $90 in commissions or $0 if I choose from their 'commission free ETF's' bucket rather than go with Vanguard funds.

For now I would stay on the side lines. You have already gone to cash. You seem really scared about the market and do not know you sleep at night allocation. You need to figure out that AA before investing. Most here are OK with 40% to 80% stocks but we are older and have weathered many big market crashes and learned to "stay the course" and stay invested. We do not jump in and out as we have no idea when to get back in or when to sell and wait. The steady approach produces the best investing results for us. But is is harder as you have to live with market down turns and loosing money like we are doing now.

My portfolio is "solid" as well. Sorry, I couldn't resist. The time to get back in isn't next Monday at 1:47, it's next Thursday at 2:13. You're in the wrong place my friend. You've been on for two months. Have you not been watching? It's okay to be in cash but don't expect growth. How old are you? Do you have sufficient funds for it not to matter? Have you done this before? Have you not seen this before many times? Why do you want to get back in?

In preparation for moving to a simpler "lazy portfolio" style of investing I sold everything in my retirement portfolio on 12/3/18. So I am now 100% cash. Got a little lucky on the timing, but now I need to figure out when to get back in. With the huge drop in the DOW looks like it would be a good time... or is this be the beginning of a long slide down. Of course nobody really knows, but I do need to get back in at some point. Any thoughts?

You won't get a lot of encouragement or backup for what you did here. However, I am in definite agreement with what you did. I would do something similar if I cared about preservation of this investment. I still may do so.

I did this once with a much smaller amount in my retirement account and put it right back into the market. Fidelity emailed me and said I had made a "round trip" and if i did it again that there would be issues with that account. Just FYI.

In preparation for moving to a simpler "lazy portfolio" style of investing I sold everything in my retirement portfolio on 12/3/18. So I am now 100% cash. Got a little lucky on the timing, but now I need to figure out when to get back in. With the huge drop in the DOW looks like it would be a good time... or is this be the beginning of a long slide down. Of course nobody really knows, but I do need to get back in at some point. Any thoughts?

Hope less experienced reader have read this and noted how BAD of a move this was/ is. One sold everything (ultimate market timing move even professionals don't do) AND have no plan and what to do next.

When making moves like this one should ALWAYS think, "Would I be doing this if the market was done well?" If the market was up 10% for the year I doubt the OP would have done anything this drastic nor should anyone else.

Good luck.

"The stock market [fluctuation], therefore, is noise. A giant distraction from the business of investing.” |
-Jack Bogle

What a perfect time to go back into the market! With all of the uncertainties about trade wars, geopolitical strife, and inflation/deflation it is the ideal time to get a realistic grip on your risk tolerance and put in place an allocation plan to stick with. Tomorrow all could be rosy on these fronts and the Dow up 2500 points. Or bad news could drop the market sharply. At this time you face risk and reward squarely and seemingly about as equally as possible. Whatever allocation your stomach can take now is probably an allocation good for you for the long haul.

There are many indivudual investors that sold out in 2009 at market bottoms and are still sitting on cash because they haven't found a perfect time to get back in. They missed perhaps the best bull market in their lifetimes.

Personally I'd dollar-cost-average back in, once you've chosen your asset allocation. Something like 20% every 2 weeks until you're fully back in. Pushing 100% in today during this Trump/China/yield inversion scare-fest would bother me. At TD Ameritrade, with a 3-fund portfolio, this would cost me about $90 in commissions or $0 if I choose from their 'commission free ETF's' bucket rather than go with Vanguard funds.

That makes no sense. Are you selling everything to DCA into the market? Absent taxes, there's no difference between not investing cash and selling investments to cash.

Market timing doesn't work. Everything you or the OP knows about Trump/China/yield inversion everyone else knows. You don't have a secret insight into the market based on that.

This week's fortune cookie: "Your financial life will be secure and beneficial." So I got that going for me, which is nice.

Our AA was down to 30/70 from 50/50 over the past several months due to a settlement sitting in Prime MM and another huge chunk also in Prime MM for a possible second home down payment. We keep most of our stock allocation in my 457b account. My former employer is changing providers and the new provider offers a 4.25% stable value fund. I went all SV a few days ago for the transition which has a 3 week blackout period so I'm in a similar position as OP.

In the next week or so when I get a minute I will get us back to our desired AA by increasing equities in our IRA's and DW's 457b. I will do this regardless of what is going on with Mr. Market.

I sold all my mutual funds because my portfolio was scattered with little rhyme nor reason. It had worked well over the years, but now that retirement is close I need something with a sensible game plan. I reinvested yesterday with my 50/50 aa. Off I go and I am not looking back.

I sold all my mutual funds because my portfolio was scattered with little rhyme nor reason. It had worked well over the years, but now that retirement is close I need something with a sensible game plan. I reinvested yesterday with my 50/50 aa. Off I go and I am not looking back.

Thanks for the opinions. Very helpful...

Congratulations!! Sounds like a good plan moving forward.

videocrafters, now that you are close to retirement, one thing for you to start thinking about is how you are going to manage cash flow when you stop working. Your day-to-day life style is driven by cash flow, not by how much money you have invested.

I sold all my mutual funds because my portfolio was scattered with little rhyme nor reason. It had worked well over the years, but now that retirement is close I need something with a sensible game plan. I reinvested yesterday with my 50/50 aa. Off I go and I am not looking back.

Thanks for the opinions. Very helpful...

Glad to see your were decisive and came up with a sensible AA for you and took action.

I sold all my mutual funds because my portfolio was scattered with little rhyme nor reason. It had worked well over the years, but now that retirement is close I need something with a sensible game plan. I reinvested yesterday with my 50/50 aa. Off I go and I am not looking back.

Thanks for the opinions. Very helpful...

Good move . I am happy to see that you did not fall into analysis paralysis trying to guess a good time to become reinvested.

"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein |
Wiki article link:Getting Started

Personally I'd dollar-cost-average back in, once you've chosen your asset allocation. Something like 20% every 2 weeks until you're fully back in. Pushing 100% in today during this Trump/China/yield inversion scare-fest would bother me. At TD Ameritrade, with a 3-fund portfolio, this would cost me about $90 in commissions or $0 if I choose from their 'commission free ETF's' bucket rather than go with Vanguard funds.

That makes no sense. Are you selling everything to DCA into the market? Absent taxes, there's no difference between not investing cash and selling investments to cash.

Market timing doesn't work. Everything you or the OP knows about Trump/China/yield inversion everyone else knows. You don't have a secret insight into the market based on that.

The wealthiest investors MARKET TIMED. This is true in the real estate world (Sam Zelle and Robert Kiyosaki as 2 examples) and the stock market world (Warren Buffett and Ray Dalio). Market/location/business timing makes fortunes. I never understood the almost socialist approach that all people are equally the same intelligence/skills/work ethic etc. You and I know this to be false. If I thought any successful individuals (like I just mentioned) were just statistically "lucky" among millions, I wouldn't want to work harder and achieve great things.

In preparation for moving to a simpler "lazy portfolio" style of investing I sold everything in my retirement portfolio on 12/3/18. So I am now 100% cash. Got a little lucky on the timing, but now I need to figure out when to get back in. With the huge drop in the DOW looks like it would be a good time... or is this be the beginning of a long slide down. Of course nobody really knows, but I do need to get back in at some point. Any thoughts?

On a smaller scale I'm in a similar situation. Due to incorrect information provided to me by Fidelity reps, I liquidated all holdings in my HSA to transfer to them. Now I'm all cash (unintended) and in Fido and hmmmm. It was never my intent to be out - but here I am. Market is down and I'd say within 24 months the bear will come a calling (if it isn't here already). So I may take the chance and just sit out until it arrives and try to catch the down to re-invest. Understand this is a very small portion of my overall portfolio so it really doesn't matter in the overall scheme whether I'm right or wrong. In the past, whenever I've tried to market time, I've been wrong. Nevertheless, my brain continues to want me to believe its my most important organ and its every thought should be heeded.

OP - perhaps you could DCA back in? Going in 1/8 every quarter over the next 24 months. My monies in my HSA are too small to bother with that, but if the same thing happened in my total account, I would go back in that way. And to the prior poster who asks, then why not do that now - my portfolio is all taxable so doing that would be imprudent on a cap gains basis. If it were all IRA based - I would likely do it with at least 1/2 my assets.

The wealthiest investors MARKET TIMED. This is true in the real estate world (Sam Zelle and Robert Kiyosaki as 2 examples) and the stock market world (Warren Buffett and Ray Dalio). Market/location/business timing makes fortunes. I never understood the almost socialist approach that all people are equally the same intelligence/skills/work ethic etc. You and I know this to be false. If I thought any successful individuals (like I just mentioned) were just statistically "lucky" among millions, I wouldn't want to work harder and achieve great things.

You pointing out a few people that you claim successfully market-timed means nothing. Studies have shown repeatedly that ordinary investors that attempt it have on average worse results than just investing in the markets when money is available.

This week's fortune cookie: "Your financial life will be secure and beneficial." So I got that going for me, which is nice.

The wealthiest investors MARKET TIMED. This is true in the real estate world (Sam Zelle and Robert Kiyosaki as 2 examples) and the stock market world (Warren Buffett and Ray Dalio). Market/location/business timing makes fortunes. I never understood the almost socialist approach that all people are equally the same intelligence/skills/work ethic etc. You and I know this to be false. If I thought any successful individuals (like I just mentioned) were just statistically "lucky" among millions, I wouldn't want to work harder and achieve great things.

You pointing out a few people that you claim successfully market-timed means nothing. Studies have shown repeatedly that ordinary investors that attempt it have on average worse results than just investing in the markets when money is available.

This phrase "ordinary investors" is arbitrary and not helpful. What is the line between ordinary and not ordinary? Where is the exact edge that makes one ordinary vs. not ordinary? There isn't one. Its a continuum, like virtually any talent or skill in life. Lets accept something straightforward. People are better than other people are some things. I can't believe I even have to say this.

This phrase "ordinary investors" is arbitrary and not helpful. What is the line between ordinary and not ordinary? Where is the exact edge that makes one ordinary vs. not ordinary? There isn't one. Its a continuum, like virtually any talent or skill in life. Lets accept something straightforward. People are better than other people are some things. I can't believe I even have to say this.

The people you name, if at all successful in market timing, haver resources well beyond most. If it were that easy, EVERYONE would be able to beat the market. That should tell you something right there.

This week's fortune cookie: "Your financial life will be secure and beneficial." So I got that going for me, which is nice.

This phrase "ordinary investors" is arbitrary and not helpful. What is the line between ordinary and not ordinary? Where is the exact edge that makes one ordinary vs. not ordinary? There isn't one. Its a continuum, like virtually any talent or skill in life. Lets accept something straightforward. People are better than other people are some things. I can't believe I even have to say this.

The people you name, if at all successful in market timing, haver resources well beyond most. If it were that easy, EVERYONE would be able to beat the market. That should tell you something right there.

You haven't answered my question though. How can you qualify or quantify between ordinary and non-ordinary? If the distinction is "one who is wealthy and successful investor" is non-ordinary, no disagreement there. That goes for any talent, skill, or vocation.

In preparation for moving to a simpler "lazy portfolio" style of investing I sold everything in my retirement portfolio on 12/3/18. So I am now 100% cash. Got a little lucky on the timing, but now I need to figure out when to get back in. With the huge drop in the DOW looks like it would be a good time... or is this be the beginning of a long slide down. Of course nobody really knows, but I do need to get back in at some point. Any thoughts?

Get back in immediately. Monday December 10, 2018 would be your first opportunity. Get back in then.

The wealthiest investors MARKET TIMED. This is true in the real estate world (Sam Zelle and Robert Kiyosaki as 2 examples) and the stock market world (Warren Buffett and Ray Dalio). Market/location/business timing makes fortunes. I never understood the almost socialist approach that all people are equally the same intelligence/skills/work ethic etc. You and I know this to be false. If I thought any successful individuals (like I just mentioned) were just statistically "lucky" among millions, I wouldn't want to work harder and achieve great things.

You pointing out a few people that you claim successfully market-timed means nothing. Studies have shown repeatedly that ordinary investors that attempt it have on average worse results than just investing in the markets when money is available.

This phrase "ordinary investors" is arbitrary and not helpful. What is the line between ordinary and not ordinary? Where is the exact edge that makes one ordinary vs. not ordinary? There isn't one. Its a continuum, like virtually any talent or skill in life. Lets accept something straightforward. People are better than other people are some things. I can't believe I even have to say this.

And I can't believe people have to remind you that the "ordinary investor" doesn't do this for a living, and doesn't have the resources or time that Buffet does. How about we use that for the line between ordinary and not? And even then, in aggregate, professional money mangers suck at market timing as much as Joe Ordinary does. Buffet does this for a living, and spends 50-60 hours a week at it with a team of researchers so asking why everyone can't replicate his success is ridiculous.

Most people already have full time jobs, and while you seem to have an abundance of free time to manage your global real estate empire and evangelize about it here, the vast majority of retirement investors don't have the time or interest to do the proper market research. Instead, they react to what they heard on CNBC and find themselves three steps behind the professionals. OP selling out on Dec 3 and getting back in on Dec 6 may have worked, but anyone who thinks it was strategy and not luck is fooling themselves.

I sold all my mutual funds because my portfolio was scattered with little rhyme nor reason. It had worked well over the years, but now that retirement is close I need something with a sensible game plan. I reinvested yesterday with my 50/50 aa. Off I go and I am not looking back.

Thanks for the opinions. Very helpful...

Before I knew the word "boglehead" I was one, except for two times. I read "A Random Walk Down Wallstreet" some time around 1992 and one message that really sunk in was "When everyone says "This time it's different", pick up your money and run."

So, I did, twice. More or less, I correctly (or closely) called the top of the dot com bubble, and fled to bonds, almost 100%. I was almost as accurate with the real estate bubble, and was safe in nearly 100% bonds with the meltdown happened. So, I'm a genius and made a mint, right?

Nope. I was waaaaaaayyyy to slow getting back into stocks, both times, and I missed a lot of gains. I think I'm a little better off today in retirement for having done those two moves, but it's 5-10%....maybe.

I did get to be the "smart guy" for water cooler talk at work when my coworkers were mostly getting killed in the market, and that was fun, but long term difference? Not much.

Right now I'm in the Boglehead 3 fund portfolio, 40% US, 20% International, 40% total bond. I don't plan to change anything, except possibly cut down on luxuries if there is a prolonged downturn.

The wealthiest investors MARKET TIMED. This is true in the real estate world (Sam Zelle and Robert Kiyosaki as 2 examples) and the stock market world (Warren Buffett and Ray Dalio). Market/location/business timing makes fortunes. I never understood the almost socialist approach that all people are equally the same intelligence/skills/work ethic etc. You and I know this to be false. If I thought any successful individuals (like I just mentioned) were just statistically "lucky" among millions, I wouldn't want to work harder and achieve great things.

You pointing out a few people that you claim successfully market-timed means nothing. Studies have shown repeatedly that ordinary investors that attempt it have on average worse results than just investing in the markets when money is available.

This phrase "ordinary investors" is arbitrary and not helpful. What is the line between ordinary and not ordinary? Where is the exact edge that makes one ordinary vs. not ordinary? There isn't one. Its a continuum, like virtually any talent or skill in life. Lets accept something straightforward. People are better than other people are some things. I can't believe I even have to say this.

And I can't believe people have to remind you that the "ordinary investor" doesn't do this for a living, and doesn't have the resources or time that Buffet does. How about we use that for the line between ordinary and not? And even then, in aggregate, professional money mangers suck at market timing as much as Joe Ordinary does. Buffet does this for a living, and spends 50-60 hours a week at it with a team of researchers so asking why everyone can't replicate his success is ridiculous.

Most people already have full time jobs, and while you seem to have an abundance of free time to manage your global real estate empire and evangelize about it here, the vast majority of retirement investors don't have the time or interest to do the proper market research. Instead, they react to what they heard on CNBC and find themselves three steps behind the professionals. OP selling out on Dec 3 and getting back in on Dec 6 may have worked, but anyone who thinks it was strategy and not luck is fooling themselves.

Not having enough time to be successful (in whatever you value) is typically a sign of lack of control in your life.

Next time you experience the self talk "I don't have time", ask yourself why. If one doesn't have time to be a great investor, that's a choice they made.

You're correct, I have plenty of time for other passions since real estate only takes me a couple of hours per month of my time. I don't do real estate for a living (I spend way more time in the gym as an example), but that doesn't preclude success.

In preparation for moving to a simpler "lazy portfolio" style of investing I sold everything in my retirement portfolio on 12/3/18. So I am now 100% cash. Got a little lucky on the timing, but now I need to figure out when to get back in.

Since you are restructuring your portfolio, you should move back to the same risk level you had before the restructure, and do that as soon as you have figured it out. If 60% of your previous portfolio was stock, you should put the whole portfolio into a balanced fund which is 60% stock if you want a portfolio which manages itself, or put 60% into stock funds and 40% into bond funds if you want to manage your own three-fund portfolio.

For example, if you are a Vanguard investor and you want 60% stock, you could put the whole thing into Vanguard Target Retirement 2025; this fund is 61% stock and will become more conservative over time. Or you could put 40% into Total Stock Market Index, 20% into Total International Stock Index, and 40% into Total Bond Market Index; I would prefer this combination in a taxable account so that you could sell bonds if needed with no tax cost.