CASTRO UNBENDING ON CUBA'S FUTURE

By HOWARD W. FRENCH, Special to The New York Times

Published: April 5, 1990

HAVANA, April 4—
Thumbing his nose at a changing world, President Fidel Castro is embellishing one of his sturdiest themes, the resolute defiance of tiny Cuba against its gargantuan neighbor, the United States.

Now all but alone in the vanguard of hard-line Communist leaders, Mr. Castro is asking his people to join him in resisting the political and economic change that has swept his closest allies even as he prepares to ask for greater sacrifice, Calling Cuba ''the symbol of resistance, the symbol of the defense of revolutionary ideals,'' Mr. Castro rejected any profound restructuring of Cuban society at a news conference on Tuesday. ''The road of concessions is the road of submission,'' he said.

If Cubans have to fight, alone and to the death to preserve their revolution, Mr. Castro insisted they would do so proudly. ''If you ask, are we going to adopt a capitalist system, we will say no,'' he said in a two-hour performance Of those who speculate on the demise of his Government, he said, ''I am sure they are wrong.''

Change Called Necessary

But for all the Cuban leader's fervor about the correctness and durability of his revolutionary course, diplomats from both East and West in Havana say that to avoid economic catastrophe Mr. Castro's Government must quickly see its way to change.

''The Cubans are trying their best to get hard currency,'' a Soviet official said. ''This is their No. 1 problem. I think the Cubans in the future must develop deeper economic relations with the West, but the only way I see is by improving relations with the United States.''

Asked whether the Soviet Union, with serious economic difficulties of its own, would maintain its huge aid program to Cuba, the Soviet official said, ''I don't think it is possible for us to cut off our aid abruptly.''

Even though he said current levels of Soviet aid would likely last at least five more years, the official said the Cuban Government must ''take into consideration the situation'' and ''look for higher efficiency in our cooperation.''

Russian Expresses Frustration

In January, when an interruption in Soviet shipments to Cuba temporarily caused shortages of bread and other food items, speculation was rife that President Mikhail S. Gorbachev of the Soviet Union, weary of Cuban oratory interpreted as critical of his policies, had decided to rein in Mr. Castro by reminding him of his economic dependency on Moscow.

Denying that there was any such message, the Soviet official nonetheless expressed frustration with what he said was the Cuban Government's failure to use its resources properly and build stocks of critical staples.

''Because of this, everything depends upon the arrival of our ships,'' the official said. ''The Cubans must take some steps to deal with this situation. They should have done this long ago; we have been telling them this all along.''

Western diplomats here agree that Cuba desperately needs to produce foreign exchange, but there is an increasing sense that with important economic relationships dissolving in Eastern Europe, it will not be able to develop hard currency earnings quickly enough to keep its economy from crumbling.

Serious Problems Predicted

''They face a whole range of problems and shortages even if the Soviets do what they can to help,'' said a Western diplomat who spoke on the condition of anonymity. ''There are going to be some very, very serious economic problems. They have already started, but next year will probably be the crunch.''

The diplomat credited Mr. Castro with taking good propaganda advantage from the United States' mostly unsuccessful trial efforts to broadcast television programs to Cubans recently, but said distractions of that kind will quickly be followed by daily reminders for the Cuban people of their economic hardships.

''For the moment he has blurred the image of standing alone on the lonely island,'' the Western diplomat said. Referring to the United States television broadcasts, he added, ''TV Marti has sailed up and rescued Robinson Crusoe, but the real serious problems he faces haven't gone away.''