Your observations are way off reality. As a German-Canadian who was born and somewhat bred here I rarely run into anyone who was here in the 80s, and Germans are a tiny part of Vancouver demographics (~9% and shrinking). British and other commonwealth immigrants, sure, Americans, and lots of Ontarians.

Like... 3rd generation Vancouverites, really? They barely exist in the adult population. When my mom moved here in 1946 it was a small, smoggy logging town.

Never ceases to amaze me how insecure people get about the idea that some people left their home town for greener pastures.

There is a large contingent of European immigrates in the 40, 50 and 60 from other parts of Europe. Portugal, Italy are just two. Generally these have been in waves. Over time as waves from other parts of the world have come in the relative population has decreased.

Yeah, Van whites seem pretty WASP-ish (including sizable numbers of Scandinavian and German ancestry that are basically WASPs anyway). Yes, there are some "ethnic whites" of southern and eastern European ancestry like the Italians in Van but they're a lot less of a presence than they are in Toronto and Montreal. You don't have these ethnic subcultures and concentrations running into the 2nd and 3rd generations there.

The GVRD has more people of Scandinavian ancestry than Italian - 124,000 are of Northern European ancestry which includes all the Nordic countries. Even if we take out the non-Scandinavian Finns and assume none of those have any Scandinavian ancestry that still leaves about 110,000. About 5% of the population. But yeah of course they're less visible because they quickly melted into the WASP mainstream.

But even the Italians in Van are far less "Italian" than they are in Toronto.

So there's a larger "critical mass" in Toronto than Van and they've continued to concentrate in enclaves outside the old "Little Italies" and urban ethnic neighborhoods.

Vaughan is a fairly affluent post-1980 suburb of 300,000 where 1/3 are Italian - more than the entire GVRD! The western half is about 50% Italian. There is no equivalent in Van and it's nothing like East Van.

In the GTA there are several CTs that are 30%+ Italian - is there a CT in the GVRD that's anywhere close to 30% Italian?

Location: Another great post taking place from the best place on earth!

Posts: 787

Quote:

5 Reasons Canada’s Housing Market Won’t Crash as the Market in the U.S. Did 10 Years Ago

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Much has been made over the past decade of Canada?s rising household debt, which is now at levels similar to those in the United States prior to the 2008-09 Financial Crisis.

With housing prices in Toronto up more than 30% over the past 12 months, and Vancouver prices having been inflated for several years, many are wondering: now that the Bank of Canada has raised interest rates twice in the last three months, will it be enough to topple the Canadian housing market?

There are five very important reasons why investors should not expect a housing correction in the Canadian market to be of nearly the same magnitude as the one experienced in the United States 10 years ago.

Reason #1: The United States incentivizes home ownership

In the U.S., federal policy actively encourages home ownership, whereas in Canada, policies are designed to encourage access to housing, but they do not explicitly favour home ownership over renting or leasing a property.

It seems then only natural to suggest that creating incentives for home ownership (like, for example, allowing mortgage interest to be tax deductible in the U.S.) would be more likely to create an environment ripe for a housing bubble.

Reason #2: Canada?s housing market is directly backed by the Federal government

In the U.S., Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are responsible for providing guarantees on mortgage-backed securities and providing overall stability to the housing system.

At the time of the Financial Crisis, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were privately owned, with the ?implicit? backing of the Federal government. Yet, when push came to shove, investors learned the hard way the difference between an implicit guarantee and direct backing.

By comparison, the Canadian equivalent responsible for providing insurance and stability, is the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) ? a Crown corporation directly owned by the Canadian Federal government.

Reason #3: Canada does not allow non-recourse mortgages

In Canada, mortgages are typically ?full-recourse? loans, meaning the borrower continues to be responsible for repaying the loan in the event of a foreclosure, which effectively incentivizes the borrower to do everything in their power to avoid foreclosing and losing the property.

Meanwhile, many U.S. states employ ?non-recourse? mortgages, which, in the event of a foreclosure, allow the borrower to walk away from their homes, leaving the lender with no-recourse besides taking over ownership of the property.

It?s easy to see how non-recourse mortgages can exacerbate the problem of homeowners defaulting on their payments.

Reason #4: Canada has tighter restrictions on mortgage insurance

Canadian legislation prohibits lenders from issuing mortgages without loan insurance if the loan is greater than 80% of the value of the property.

Insurance which is purchased from the CMHC covers the entire amount of the loan for the entire life of the mortgage.

In the U.S., it is a little different; while many lenders will require insurance, they are not legally obligated to do so.

Moreover, in the U.S., loan insurance is ?partial,? often covering 20-30% of the loan amount and is cancelled as soon as the value of the loan falls below 78% of the purchase price.

Reason #5: The relative absence of a subprime market in Canada

Sub-prime mortgages are made to riskier borrowers, such as those with a weaker credit history or less stable income.

In the U.S., before the housing crisis, the sub-prime mortgage market peaked at 23.5% of all mortgage originations.

By contrast, in Canada today, the sub-prime mortgage market, which includes Home Capital Group Inc. (TSX:HCG), accounts for less than 5% of originations, making the market significantly less risky.

Conclusion

Regardless of how you look at it, rising interest rates are not a good omen for the future of Canada?s housing market. And while delinquencies today are well below historical averages, that may actually be confirming evidence that a bubble is present.

Current and prospective homeowners should approach the market with caution. Those warning that the ?sky is falling? and that the environment is similar to the situation in the U.S. 10 years ago, ought to think a bit more Foolishly.

Being of Scandinavian and Finnish descent, I find almost no representation in Vancouver. Nordstrom and IKEA? Sad to think that our numbers are so high with such little effect.

That being said, I come from Thunder Bay which has distinct Scandinavian and Finnish influences. It’s a place that gets a bad rap but my heart pines for that familiar feeling at times. “Toivo Lehtonen is going to start speaking Finn to me at the Hoito because he thinks I’ll understand.”

The pace of Canadian home price growth slowed in August as prices in Toronto dropped for the first time in 19 months as sales in the city have declined following provincial government efforts to rein in the market.

The Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index, which measures changes for repeat sales of single-family homes, showed prices rose 0.6 per cent last month from July, less than the August average of 0.7 per cent.

In Toronto, Canada’s largest city, prices were down 0.4 per cent, the first decline since January 2016. Price weakness was seen in particular among homes other than condominiums, such as single-family homes, the report said...

Another "how the hell do you explain this" statistic for bubble/foreign influence deniers: Stats Can just announced the median HOUSEHOLD income (ie usually two people and include investments etc) in Vancouver is $72,662. That is pathetic, meaning most people don't even earn $40,000 per year, and lower than other major Canadian cities.
That's a 5.2% increase since the last census 2011. Housing prices went up 78% in the same period.

District of North Vancouver, i.e. the only expensive municipality in the metro that isn't significantly Chinese, has the highest incomes now.

There's some facts for ya, sunsetmountainland. I look forward to your spin.

...As foreign funds flow into hot Canadian housing markets, concerns about money laundered through real estate have grown. In recent reports, Canada has received tepid reviews for its effectiveness at combatting financial crimes, such as money laundering and terrorist financing.

Last fall, an international evaluation by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), an intergovernmental body that sets worldwide standards, said Canada has made progress since 2007, but still has significant enforcement gaps. FATF warned that "little is done by [Canadian financial institutions] to verify the accuracy of beneficial ownership information."...

In other news, 44 buildings collapsed in Mexico City with a 7.1 earthquake yesterday. And I know you're probably thinking "we have better building regulations than them" but if you have seen the horrific shit I've seen in several new developments you wouldn't be so confident about our chances in a similar quake. That will definitely be the end of the bubble if Chinese money isn't blocked/exhausted first.

In other news, 44 buildings collapsed in Mexico City with a 7.1 earthquake yesterday. And I know you're probably thinking "we have better building regulations than them" but if you have seen the horrific shit I've seen in several new developments you wouldn't be so confident about our chances in a similar quake. That will definitely be the end of the bubble if Chinese money isn't blocked/exhausted first.

The scary thing about Vancouver is that it is in an area that is prone to infrequent, but huge earthquakes - the megathrust earthquakes. They often have magnitudes of 8.5-9.0. I'm not sure even properly engineered stuff will do well.

If the scientists are right, the last one was in 1700, with a return period of 300 years.

We're going to start liquidating some rental property here shortly in order to get some capital together for some land in BC. I'm a little concerned about the local real estate market in that there is a pretty significant over supply of condos here right now. Both our rentals are low-mid range so I think they'll do okay, but from what I am hearing, pricier real estate might get harder to move here for the next while. Hopefully things turn around before we put the primary residence up for sale

In other news, 44 buildings collapsed in Mexico City with a 7.1 earthquake yesterday. And I know you're probably thinking "we have better building regulations than them" but if you have seen the horrific shit I've seen in several new developments you wouldn't be so confident about our chances in a similar quake. That will definitely be the end of the bubble if Chinese money isn't blocked/exhausted first.

This is something I've wondered about ever since I saw that video a few months back of that suite in Telus Gardens with all those problems. What sorts of corners are being cut in the construction of these new condos and how might that affect their safety in the event of a major seismic event?

Though I think a massive earthquake would shatter the housing bubble even without any of those extra issues.

In other news, 44 buildings collapsed in Mexico City with a 7.1 earthquake yesterday. And I know you're probably thinking "we have better building regulations than them" but if you have seen the horrific shit I've seen in several new developments you wouldn't be so confident about our chances in a similar quake. That will definitely be the end of the bubble if Chinese money isn't blocked/exhausted first.

The mega thrust would be some 250 kms from Vancouver, a almost perfect comparison is Santiago Chile in 2010 which had a mega thrust that was equally as far. I have a friend who is a civil engineer from Santiago and he said he thinks Vancouver will have a big problem because much of the infrastructure will fail. The difference with Santiago is that they get earthquakes quite often, the stuff not built well has continually fallen, and they have rebuilt with better standards. Vancouver does not have the luxury and the city has never faced a earthquake. It will be interesting.

Having said all this the even bigger danger is a shallow crustal earthquake close to Vancouver. There are many fault lines close by, many that we don't even know about. There is one that runs straight through Abbotsford for example that is active and has historically produced shallow 6.5-7.5 earthquakes. These are much more likely to happen, more frequent, and can be more destructive for Vancouver if they are shallow, 7+ and are within say 50 km's of the city. Its actually amazing we have not had a large crustal earthquake in the region in a long long time. They should be happening much more frequently in this part of the world.

• Video Link 8.8 2010 subduction in Santiago some 250 or so km's from the subduction zone. Similar city to Vancouver, though with significantly more frequent earthquakes.