Friday, February 18, 2011

Friday's GamesCan UConn avenge last month's home loss to Louisville? Do the Huskies deserve to be on the 2 line next week if they do?

Whose at-large hopes will be crushed by the result of VCU at Wichita State?

Can Princeton pass a tricky road test at Yale and stay unbeaten in the Ivy?

Saturday's GamesCould the Jayhawks lose two in a row? Colorado beat Kansas State and Kansas State beat Kansas, so does that mean Colorado can beat Kansas?

It's hard to take a power conference team seriously when their last tourney appearance was 1998, but won't we have to if Nebraska can knock off Texas?

If Kansas State and Baylor can win home games against Big XII bottom feeders, and Colorado and Nebraska somehow pulled off Ws, can you imagine the Big XII bubble mess on Monday?

Will SDSU get caught overlooking Air Force in anticipation of its showdown with BYU next weekend?

St. John's has already beaten three of the top four Big East teams at home. Will they take down Pitt and make it 4-for-4?

West Virginia hasn't beaten a Big East team in the top half of the bracket since early January. Will they break that streak at home against Notre Dame?

Can Washington climb back into the hunt for the Pac-10 title and beat Arizona in Tucson?

Considering that BC hasn't won a conference road game in 2011, do they really have any chance to win in Chapel Hill?

If Virginia Tech can win at Virginia, then they have to finally be ahead of BC on the ACC bubble, correct?

A few days ago it was a given that Utah State needed the win more than St. Mary's in their BracketBuster showdown, but after the Gaels' loss to San Diego this week, who needs this game more?

Florida State couldn't have asked for an easier opponent in their first post-Singleton game. He's not so important that the Seminoles could possibly lose to Wake Forest, is he?

Given the way Georgia has fared against superior opponents in the past month, we have no expectations for them to win at Tennessee. The question is, will they be in the bracket on Monday with another loss?

Can Michigan win at Iowa and keep their slim at-large hopes alive?

We know that Colorado State cannot match the OOC resume of UNLV, but if they beat the Rebels again and have a three-game lead in the loss column on the Rebels, how are they not ahead of them on the MWC bubble?

Cincinnati got the marquee Big East win its resume so desperately needed this week, but can they avoid giving it all back and losing at Providence?

Gonzaga's at-large resume improved this week without them doing much of anything. Can the Zags avoid a season sweep at the hands of San Francisco and keep their at-large dreams alive?

Does Michigan State have the biggest must-win game of any bubble team this weekend with Illinois coming in?

Are we wrong in thinking the most likely scenario for Conference USA is Memphis getting an at-large and someone else (UTEP? UAB? Southern Miss?) winning the conference tourney?

Why does the ESPN Gameday schedule come out in the beginning of the season? Shouldn't they hold off until a week or two before so we aren't stuck watching them in Lansing at such a mediocre game?

Sunday's GamesCan Purdue knock off Wisconsin and Ohio State in the same week?

We were reminded again on Thursday that Penn State is pretty tough to beat at home. Any chance they win at the Kohl Center?

Will Old Dominion continue to state its case for an at-large with a BracketBuster win over Cleveland State?

Will Clemson see its at-large chances end for good with a loss at Miami?

88 comments:

Agree with your take on CUSA. Memphis will probably get an at-large, but there's a good chance they won't win the tournament. If Memphis wins the tournament, UAB, So Miss and UTEP could still get at-large bids if they play well down the stretch and make the conference finals. 2 bids for CUSA is the most likely scenario.

The Gameday thing is stupid, for college football they pick their game the week before, no reason they couldn't do that for basketball. I think Pitt at St. John's is the most interesting game on saturday.

No way Colorado wins at Kansas. It's not likely, but Nebraska could knock off Texas at home. This is a must win for the Huskers to have any chance at a bid.

I would take Georgia out if they lose at Tennessee. I don't think they'll win at Florida or Alabama, which would put them just 8-8 in the SEC. They only have one win over tournament teams right now.

The problem is that ESPN will only do Gameday at locations where they are broadcasting the game. So every Saturday you have a lot of big games not being broadcast by the ESPN family of networks. A perfect example is next weekend with BYU playing at SDSU (CBS game) it what will likely be the only regular season game all season with 2 teams currently in the top 4 of the RPI facing off.

Hello, first time viewer here! I was wonder about how long it usually takes to make a bracketology and how do you compare the teams. Do you put all their resumes on a WORD Document and rank them from there, and then place them in your bracket? Or something else? Thanks if you can help!

I wholeheartedly agree--Harvard has a legitimate chance to win the auto-bid, and if they do, I don't see Princeton getting an at-large. I think the only chance for 2 Ivy league bids is for Harvard to win out the regular season, Princeton to lose the rematch against Harvard and then to win the one-game playoff. With the Bubble going out of its way to destroy its at-large chances, the Ivy League has a chance at two bids, so long as its two big schools keep chugging along, even if it's not probable even at this point.

Apparently the journalistic mock draft took place yesterday, with FSU as an 11 seed and playing in the first round game... Do you think that EVERYONE hates FSU, or is it just transference of the committee's hate of the 'noles onto those who are trying to predict what the committee will do?

We are constantly watching games and analyzing results during the week, but the majority of the bracket is put together on Sunday night. It takes us about two hours to make the S-curve and then a couple hours for our bracket guru Matt Reeves to place teams in each region.

Harvard is the only Ivy team with a legitimate chance at an at-large. The only realistic scenario for the Ivy getting two bids remains Harvard and Princeton winning out and Princeton beating Harvard in the one-game playoff.

You have to take the media's mock bracket with a grain of salt for a couple of reasons: 1. We weren't invited to participate, and 2. It's based on ficticious regular season and conference tourney results. We're assuming they have FSU losing a couple of games down the stretch, and that's why they're an 11.

people can table talk of gtown or nd getting a 1 seed now. it's going to be pitt, ohio st, duke and the better of kansas/texas (right now kansas). there's no way that the committee is going to bump duke, ohio st or the better of kansas/texas for a 1 seed with a distant 2nd or 3rd place finisher of the BE (particularly ND, which only has 1 OOC win (wisconsin) against an NCAAT team, but georgia is creeping up).

mike, apparently you haven't seen FSU play much this season. Chris Singleton is FSU's best overall player, but that's because he's one of the best defenders in the country. He's nowhere close to their best offensive player despite averaging the most points on the team. He leads the team in turnovers and takes tons of terrible shots every game. The only reason he's the leading scorer is because he's taken at least 90 more shots than anyone else on the team! And 2/3 of those were bad shots.

Pomeroy has him rated as FSU's 3rd best offensive player, only slightly ahead of Okaro White, his freshman backup.

I'd even argue that FSU's offense will actually get better overall without Singleton in the lineup. It just flows better without a guy that constantly turns it over that jacks up 3's with a hand in his face all the time.

I love college basketball, as college basketball, without viewing it through a prism of which teams have guys who might be good pros and stuff like that. All that said, at this point, after a long day of basketball with more to come, I'm in favor of stripping the NCAAs back to 48 teams this season. Bad, stupid, basketball should not be rewarded.

WAC is 4-0 so far in bracketbusters, with 5 more to go tonight. Does the conference doing well in these games really help Utah States chances much or is it of pretty small importance of what the rest of the conference does now?

There were a lot of upsets and a lot of important wins on Saturday, but none was bigger than Utah State's. What a second half for the Aggies. Barring a collapse down the stretch, they're going dancing.

Have you been copying Lunardi's bracket? How is VT an 11 after being swept by Virginia? How is St. Mary's a 10 after losing to both San Diego and Utah St. this week? Isn't Memphis as a 12 a little high after losing to Rice?

Isn't a 7 a little high for George Mason? Isn't an 8 a little high for Utah State? Isn't Missouri State a little high as an 11?

Not only did Utah State pull off a big win(finally!!!) but the WAC conference went 8-1 in bracketbusters making Utah State's competition look a lot better. If they take care of buisness now they'll be in tourney.

Never have I seen a collection of NBA ready talent like Baylor fail so miserably to play like a team. Its just so incredibly bizarre that players flock to Waco, Texas to play for a worthless athletics program. What the heck kind of line is Scott Drew feeding them?

Have you been copying Lunardi's bracket? How is VT an 11 after being swept by Virginia? How is St. Mary's a 10 after losing to both San Diego and Utah St. this week? Isn't Memphis as a 12 a little high after losing to Rice?

Isn't a 7 a little high for George Mason? Isn't an 8 a little high for Utah State? Isn't Missouri State a little high as an 11?

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I copy nobodys bracket to be honest. Haven't even looked at Lunardi's bracket since last week. The only sites I like are Jerry Palm's, KenPom's and this.

VT = 11. They're the last on the 11 line. The bubble's weak, what can I say? KenPom has them at 26. Virginia (2) is the worst loss the have.

St Mary's was a 7/8 last week. They fall to a 10. It comes down to the next 2 games for the Gaels. If they lose to Gonzaga at home; they're out. Simple.

Memphis being a 12 and one of the last teams in is just proof of how weak the bubble is. At worst they're 11-5 in conference.

A 7 is not high for George Mason. Have you seen them play? KenPom has Mason ranked 18th. Thats around where he had Northern Iowa last year and look at what they did. They've been demolishing teams. If they go out early in the CAA's they're still a lock. They will win games in the NCAA's.

An 8 may be high for Utah State.. but they looked impressive today. 28-3 heading into the WAC is likely.

Missouri State an 11? The MVC is now a 1 bid league and they're my league champs. They could go anywhere from 10-12.

If Michigan goes 2-1 the rest of the way and win at least 1 Big Ten Tourney game, are they in the big dance? Does one of those 2 wins have to be Wisconsin or can it be any combination of the 3, but 2 wins at least?

Utah State is winning a lot of games, but they did lose a game in conference and the St. Mary's win loses a little bit of luster after St. Mary got beat by San Diego. I'd say a 12 or 11 at most would be reasonable for them.

George Mason is looking excellent, but they didn't really do anything OOC and despite their great play and lofty RPI they appear likely to be a bit under-seeded and to make life very difficult for some higher ranked team in the second round. I'm a big fan of George Mason personally.

It's hard to take Memphis seriously as an at-large when they can't even take care of business in a weak CUSA. If that conference gets two bids it might come down to which two teams make the finals and get the slot accordingly. At this point I don't know whether Memphis, UTEP, Southern Miss, or UAB will be in that mix in the end, though.

Virginia Tech lost @Georgia Tech in addition to being swept by Virginia. They also lost @Kansas State and at home to UNLV. Their marquee wins look like home wins against FSU, Penn State, Mississippi State, and Oklahoma State. This team looks at best like a "last four in team" at this particular moment. With games against Duke, Boston College, and @Clemson coming up, that may not be enough. Going 3-1 in the last four with a win in the ACC Tourney would appear to be necessary to lock up a bid, and it's hard to see that happening right now. If Boston College goes 4-0 in its last four (which looks doable given the schedule of Miami and Wake Forest and Home and @Virginia and @Virginia Tech), BC would almost certainly take the fourth (and likely final) ACC bid behind Duke, NC, and FSU.

Missouri State (a reasonable selection for the autobid) should probably fall around a 12 or a 13 unless they win out in the regular season and the Bubble contains to be like Clark Kent on a kryptonite planet as it has been.

St. Mary's losing to both Utah State and (especially) San Diego makes it a very shaky at-large. I'd say we're talking another 12 spot last-four in at best. It's very possible that the WCC may end up with only one bid.

The bigger question, though, is does anyone want to go to the NCAA tournament?

If Michigan goes 2-1 the rest of the way and win at least 1 Big Ten Tourney game, are they in the big dance? Does one of those 2 wins have to be Wisconsin or can it be any combination of the 3, but 2 wins at least?

@ Go Blue 1980, I am a Michigan fan as well. I can only see them getting in at 9-9 if they beat Wisconsin. I mean Minny is tough at home and MSU is having a down year (even though they still will sneak in) I think the only way we get in is by beating Wisconsin and going 9-9 or 10-8. If they go 2-1 without beating Wisconsin then they would probably need 2 in the BTT to make it. Wisconsin at home Wednesday to me is make or break. Michigan really only has two solid out of conference wins. Harvard at AT Clemson.

The strength of schedule is good, but it would be been nice to beat a Syracuse, Kansas, or even Ohio State when they had the chance. They should really be kicking themselves about the loss at home to Minnesota because that was a winnable game.

Great win by Purdue today. One of the things that I love about the regular season is that a team can look awful against at team on the road, but then look tremendous a few weeks later at home. I think that there are certain conferences where the teams beat each other up so bad that they do not look well for the committee, but I have no problem with a team with a lot of losses making the dance if the conference can be measured as a good one.

BTW a 15 loss team can and has made the tournament via the conferences tourneys. Of course I realize that you were talking about at-large bids.

Not sure where AG's bias against Pitt comes from. They have comparable RPI's and SOS, and have the same number of wins against the RPI top 50. Taking into account that fact that Pitt plays in a better confernece (along with their head to head win over UT), I think anyone looking at the two objectively would conclude that the two teams are near equal in terms of resume. Saying Pitt "isn't close" to a 1 seed is ridiculous.

It's Pitt's style of play that gets it so much disrespect from casual fans like AG. Ashton Gibbs does not have the same starpower as say Nolan Smith, Kyrie Irving, Jared Sullenger, Morris Twins, Jordan Hamilton, Triston Thompson... but Pitt is just as good as a team.

Still can't believe Butler is being touted as the rep for the Horizon...I'm a HUGE Butler fan, but they will have a tough stretch ahead of them to win the conference tourney especially being a less than stellar road team this season....?

It is not out of the realm of possibility that a 15 loss team makes the tourney as an at large some year. Especially with the 3 extra at large slots. Arizona made it a couple of years ago with 14 losses. Georgia in 2001 made with a 16-14 record as a 9 seed. They had the #1 most difficult schedule by RPI.

AG, you're biased, nuts or both. You say, "Pitt would be the softest #1 seed ever. Its still Kansas/Texas/OSU/ Duke for #1s and its not even close."

Let's take these one at a time:

Kansas has played one game against a top 10 RPI team, and lose to #8 at home by 11. Kansas has played one game against an RPI 11-25 team; they beat #17 on a neutral court by 8. Finally, they're 6-1 vs. RPI 26-50, the loss a 16-point shellacking against 9-loss bubble team Kansas St., whose 2nd best win is a 16-point home win over #63 Virginia Tech.

Texas has lost 4 games, two of them to teams outside the RPI top 60 (incl. a 17-point loss to #83 USC), one on a neutral court to, oh yeah, Pittsburgh and one at home to, oh yeah, UConn (you know, the team in a 3-way tie for 8th place in the conference Pitt is currently dominating).

OSU has a nice team. The Bucks have played 4 top 25 RPI games and gone 2-2 (1-1 vs. Top 10 and 1-1 vs. 11-25). One of those wins was a pre-Thanksgiving win at Florida; both losses, incl. a 13-point drubbing today, occurred in the past 9 days. They're 5-0 vs. #26-50 (all vs. teams rated #40-48).

Duke has not faced an RPI top 10 opponent and they're 1-1 vs. 11-25, including a 15-point beatdown at MSG, where Pitt lost this Saturday by 1. The Blue Devils are 5-1 vs. #26-50, all games vs. teams rated 30-48.

Pitt has played 3 games against the Top 10. They're 2-1, having beaten the #5 team by 15 on the road and the #8 team (your obvious 1-seed Texas, which kicked Kansas' butt in Lawrence) by 2 on a neutral court; they lost by 5 at home to #10.

Pitt has played 5 games against RPI 11-25 teams; they're 4-1 in such games, the one loss by 1 on the road at #12 St. John's which blew out #6 Duke, #10 ND and #14 UConn (you remember, those guys that beat Texas on their own court?). Pitt beat #14, 19, 22 and 24 (incl. 2 road gms), by an avg of 8 points per game. Pitt is 1-1 vs 26-50.

You say, "Pitt is going to make some 7 or 10 seed very happy." Perhaps, but it's time we stop seeding teams because they're media darlings (Texas, Kansas, Ohio St., Duke, I'm looking at all of you) and start looking coldly at the resumes. You know, the actual body of work in the 2010-11 season and not some predetermined impression of historical NCAA tournament prowess.

You say, "Pitt fans pray you don't catch George Mason." I think we can agree that there's no team that hopes to face Mason in March, no?

Arizona is completely over rated, thanks for being the only realistic site giving them a (still generous) 7 seed. Washington ends up a higher seed than UCLA but no team from the PAC10 should be higher than a 8 or 9 seed this year.

UnfortunatlyBuy rs gold I think in which either Harvard or maybe New york will slip a few days ago. Back to back games on the highway both for of these. Not easy towards gw2 goldperhaps normal adversaries.

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