Monday, March 10, 2014

What Happens Tomorrow?

With nearly $25 million in cap space and player rumors
flying, the Bucs are expected to be active participants when free agency kicks
off Tuesday at 4pm. What positions will
Licht and Lovie look to address first?

If we’re to believe the whispers, the Bucs will be most
active on the offensive and defensive lines.
They’ve already cut their starting right guard and are rumored to be
flirting with the idea of ditching their left tackle and center as well. It’s assumed a pass rushing defensive end
will be one of their first signings, but they may add a tackle too.

OL

With the Bucs being tied to Eugene Monroe, Branden Albert,
and Anthony Collins you’ve got to think Penn’s roster spot is in serious
jeopardy. Albert is reportedly headed to
Miami, and Monroe
might stay in Baltimore. Reports have Collins ticketed for Tampa at $6.5 to $7
million per year. He’s a guy I’ve liked
since he was at Kansas. With Andrew Whitworth and Andre Smith manning
Cincinnati’s
tackle positions, Collins has been the best backup tackle in the league the
last few years in my opinion. He would
be a significant improvement in pass protection and is no slouch in the run
game either. To me the biggest things
about Collins are that he’s consistent and has stayed healthy.

What also excites me about this potential acquisition is
that the Bucs could get younger and better at left tackle for less money. I listed Collins in my offseason piece, but I
didn’t think the Bucs would be that aggressive in replacing Penn.
Hopefully I underestimated them.

The Bucs are rumored to be talking to Rodger Saffold as
well, and I would hope that would be for right guard rather than left tackle
where I think Saffold is a inferior talent to Collins. I’d rather let Oakland pay Saffold the rumored $8 million to
play left tackle and focus on either Geoff Schwartz or Jon Asamoah at right
guard. I know this sounds narrow-minded
since it’s only two players, but if the Bucs don’t sign either of KC’s guards,
I think they’ll focus on the draft to find Joseph’s replacement. I still like Florida’s Jon Halapio as a day three
pick.

At $4.5 million, Zuttah might not be any safer than Penn. Working a bit in his favor though is the
center market dried up a bit when Cleveland
gave Alex Mack the transition tag. Yes
he’s free to talk to other teams, but I have a feeling any suitors would just
be doing Cleveland’s
negotiating for them. If the Bucs do
decide to move on from the versatile but average Zuttah, two realistic options
are Evan Dietrich-Smith and Brian De La Puente.
Dietrich-Smith earned $1.3 million with the Packers last year, while De
La Puente made $2 million with the Saints.
The former is expected to land the larger deal this offseason, but maybe
the Bucs could steal the latter from a division rival at roughly what it would
have cost to keep Zuttah. De La Puente
is a pretty athletic center who played for Jeff Tedford’s Cal Bears and could
be a nice Mack consolation prize.

DL

Heading into the offseason I was hoping for either Everson
Griffen or Corey Wootton to be the Bucs primary focus at defensive end. Unfortunately, Griffen signed a 5 year dealt
to remain in Minnesota
with $20 million guaranteed. Wootton
will come cheaper than that, has the Lovie connection, and can assist the Bucs
from both the end and tackle positions.
He would be my #1 pass rush target when free agency kicks off and would
give the Bucs a solid pairing at left end with William Gholston.

Michael Johnson is the big name being tied to TampaBay. With his former defensive coordinator’s new
team re-upping Griffen, he’s not headed to Minnesota.
The Bears are rumored to be competition for Johnson’s services, but the
Bucs should have no trouble matching any Bears’ offer since they sit at just
roughly $9 million under the salary cap.
Stating the obvious, signing Johnson would be a big upgrade at left end
over the disappointing Da’Quan Bowers.
An anticipated $9-10 million annual stipend may seem a bit steep for a
guy with just 3.5 sacks last year, but a lot of Johnson’s contributions come in
less sexy statistical categories.
Johnson tied teammate Carlos Dunlap for the league lead with 7 batted
passes, and set career highs in QB hurries with 41 and hits with 17. The bottom line is disrupting the flow and
momentum of the offense. Johnson does
that in multiple ways.

With Michael Bennett staying in Seattle,
maybe Chicago finagles
the cap somehow to get competitive for Johnson.
The Bucs could make my year by signing both Johnson and Wootton.

If Henry Melton finds a soft market, the Bucs could get
quite the steal at tackle. Melton would
give the Bucs a very quality rotational piece in the middle as he tries to
rebuild his value. If Melton doesn’t
fall in their laps, I’d like to see the Bucs add Vance Walker, the veteran who
shows up every week. I expect both Randy
Starks and Jason Hatcher to sign deals that price them out of TampaBay’s
range, so there don’t figure to be many economical impact options.

Other Positions

Not to completely rehash my previous piece, I would like to
see the Bucs add a corner, receiver, and middle linebacker. With the majority of the funding going into
the trenches, the Bucs will likely be looking “second tier” when it comes to
these positions.

Sam Shields’ signing made a lot of other guys a lot of
money. Alterraun Verner and Vontae Davis
are very unlikely options, and Aqib Talib isn’t coming back to town. Former Bear Charles Tillman may be the most
likely option, but I’d still prefer to the Corey Graham route. He’s four years younger, a better player at
this point, and will likely land a similar deal to Tillman. Veteran Drayton Florence would be another, cheaper option and
would also weaken the rival Panthers.

With Jeremy Maclin re-signing with Philly, Andre Roberts is
my clear #1 option at receiver. He’s a
proven talent who would not surprise me if he were to outplay current #2 and
resident knucklehead Mike Williams. The
Bucs would still need to add to the position in the draft, and Sammy Watkins
could be the cherry on top of a restocked receiving stable.

I think Mason Foster has a bullseye on his back, but there
isn’t a clear, immediate upgrade in free agency. I expect the Bucs to pursue both Erin
Henderson and Desmond Bishop, former Vikings familiar with DC Leslie
Frazier. Henderson could be Dekoda Watson’s
replacement at SLB, while a healthy Bishop could be legit competition for
Foster. Being greedy, I’d like to
re-sign Watson, bring in the two Vikings, and let the best men win the MLB and
SLB jobs.

There’s no serious long-term threat to Mike Glennon’s job in
free agency, but Josh McCown and Shaun Hill are the best remaining
options. McCown is surely seeking a shot
at a starting gig, while Hill makes for the more likely clipboard holder. I’ve mentioned Hill as an option in previous
years and would be the route I’d go should they choose to bring in a
veteran.

I mentioned Dexter McCluster as someone I expected/wanted
the Bucs to target in free agency, and it appears they will do so. I have a clear preference for McCluster over
Hester given that McCluster can be a pretty decent offensive contributor when
given enough snaps.

Summary

With plenty of cap space and currently only five draft
picks, I expect the Bucs to be active early and often in free agency,
especially with the potential “no-cap-impact” additions on the offensive
line. Since the TE market sucks, I hope
they address enough other needs in free agency that they can get a quality TE
in the draft. They can’t sign all of
these guys, but given what has happened and what we think we know so far, here
are my updated Tampa
targets –