Toward the end of a
Brussels press briefing this month, a reporter asked Jean-Claude
Juncker for his take on “floating hotspots,” Italy’s
controversial idea for the European Union to set up sea-based migrant
processing centers.

The European
Commission president drew a blank.

“Floating hotspot.
Floating,” the reporter from Italian television repeated.

Juncker slowly
twirled an index finger in the air as he tried to understand the
question.

As the European
Union confronts the worst crisis in its history, migration isn’t
the only area where the Commission president is grasping for answers.

On a range of
fronts, from border fences to Brexit to the economy, Juncker’s
Commission has struggled to plough a path out of the malaise.
Economic priorities — from Juncker’s much-touted €315 billion
investment plan to a transatlantic free-trade pact — have yet to
show significant impact or have been derailed.

Interviews with more
than 40 EU politicians, diplomats and officials from countries across
the EU — critics, supporters, and members of Juncker’s inner
circle — as well as an analysis of his travel and meeting
schedules, reveal a Commission president who is increasingly on the
sidelines.

“The
truth is we don’t see him. People don’t complain here because he
is not indispensable to the everyday functioning of the EU”
— Senior diplomat from a large EU country

Juncker’s
associates worry the multiple crises have left him politically
paralyzed and worsened his health. They complain he has become
disengaged from important debates, letting deputies and senior aides
take the lead on key issues that should fall under the president’s
purview. Given Europe’s troubled state, some question whether he’s
still up to the task.

“I wish him the
best and I hope that he’s able to be at the necessary level of the
duty,” said Ingeborg Grässle, chairwoman of the European
Parliament’s powerful budgetary control committee. “We cannot
have political puppets put in the hands of someone else, this is not
admissible.”

Grässle, who like
Juncker belongs to the center-right European People’s Party,
describes the Commission president as a “good friend.”

Others are less
charitable. The decline in Juncker’s standing over the past 19
months has been so precipitous that the debate in some national
capitals has shifted from what to do about it to whether it really
even matters.

“The truth is we
don’t see him,” a senior diplomat from a large EU country said.
“People don’t complain here because he is not indispensable to
the everyday functioning of the EU. We sometimes don’t notice his
absence.”

‘Last-chance
Commission’

Juncker came into
office promising to act as a “consensus machine.” The first
Commission president to claim a popular mandate after campaigning as
his center-right party’s lead candidate, the longtime Luxembourg
prime minister and head of the Eurogroup vowed to transform the EU’s
executive from a colorless, technocratic committee into a force to
reckon with.

Dubbing his team the
“last-chance Commission,” Juncker promised to be “political,”
to pursue a vision to drive Europe forward, to bury once and for all
the Euroskeptics’ tenebrous narrative.

“Citizens are
losing faith. Extremists on the Left and Right are nipping at our
heels.… It is time we breathed a new lease on life into the
European project,” Juncker told the European Parliament just days
before taking office.

Far from winning
back public trust, the Juncker Commission has lost it. Eurobarometer
polls taken during Juncker’s time in office show public confidence
in the Commission continuing to decline, and a Pew Research Center
survey released last week found rising Euroskepticism in key member
countries.

When Juncker has
intervened, such as by advocating leniency for France in relation to
its budget deficit violations, he has faced accusations of
undermining the very principles the Commission should be enforcing.
His visit to Vladimir Putin’s high-profile economic forum in St.
Petersburg this week, just as the EU is preparing to renew sanctions
against Moscow, is for many just the latest head-scratching moment of
Juncker’s presidency.

‘Poly-crisis
management’

Juncker has his
defenders, even across party lines.

“He is facing
multiple crises that the Commission cannot solve by itself,” said
Christophe Caresche, a Socialist French MP. “His intelligence has
been to manage the multiple crises without making them worse than
they already were, without exacerbating the natural tensions that
exist between member states.”

Juncker’s allies
rattle off a laundry list of factors to explain his marginalization,
from constant meddling by national capitals to the institutional
limits of his office.

To be fair, the odds
were stacked against the longtime Luxembourg premier from the outset.
He took over the Commission at a time when Europe was still reeling
from the trauma of the debt crisis. The debate over German-inspired
austerity for wayward economies had deepened a north-south divide on
the Continent.

Yet it was Juncker
himself who promised to upend the way things were done, to
reinvigorate Europe. The man who earned the nickname “Mr. Euro”
for helping to steer the eurozone through the shoals of the debt
crisis vowed to use his magic touch on the EU. “I’m allergic to
the division in north and south, small and big, weak and strong,”
he said at the time.

If nothing else,
Juncker has made good on his pledge to make the Commission more
political, encouraging commissioners to have a clear point of view.
He has also streamlined the EU’s executive body with a new
structure that gives more power to vice presidents. By all accounts
the day-to-day administration of the Commission has become more
efficient.

Juncker’s aides
insist he is fully in control. “President Juncker devised the new
structure of the Commission so as to focus on the big issues that
require presidential attention, namely the refugee crisis and the
Greek crisis for example,” said his chief spokesman, Margaritis
Schinas, in a written response to questions from POLITICO. “President
Juncker is devoting his time in managing the so-called ‘poly-crisis’
while leaving the portfolio-specific details to the vice presidents
and the commissioners in their project teams.”

European
Council President Donald Tusk has used Juncker’s weakness to his
own advantage, carving out a more political, more forceful role.

Schinas also
dismissed criticism that the EU investment plan — which has been
called “Juncker Voodoo” — had so far failed to deliver, calling
it an “unprecedented success” that has “mobilized over €100
billion in investment in its first year, in 26 EU countries, well
over a third of our objective for three years.”

Asked about the
president’s hesitation on the question on “floating hotspots,”
Schinas said Juncker was aware of the Italian plan and made it clear
that he was open to considering it.

A lack of focus

What’s missing
from the Juncker Commission, critics say, is an overarching strategy.
Political calculation and short-term tactics, whether the issue is
France’s deficit or refugees, drive the agenda. Rather than fixing
a north-south divide, his migration policies have deepened an
east-west one.

“It’s a more PR
commission, it’s more about looks and how it looks in the press,”
said Olivér Várhelyi, Hungary’s EU ambassador. “They’re
drifting with current affairs.”

Some have welcomed
the lack of focus. A rudderless executive creates an opening for
national capitals to exercise more influence. It’s an opportunity
Berlin, in particular, hasn’t hesitated to seize. During
negotiations over a refugee pact with Turkey, for example, German
Chancellor Angela Merkel ignored the Brussels game plan and secretly
hashed out her own deal with Ankara, presenting it to the rest of the
EU as a fait accompli on the morning of a crucial March summit.

Across the Rue de la
Loi in Brussels’ EU quarter, European Council President Donald Tusk
has used Juncker’s weakness to his own advantage, carving out a
more political, more forceful role for an office originally designed
to serve as a neutral arbiter between capitals.

While some in Europe
applaud Tusk’s activism, others worry it has upset the equilibrium
between the EU’s core institutions.

The best Europe can
hope for now, officials say privately, is for the Commission to
muddle through the next three years of Juncker’s term.

The question is how
realistic that scenario is. Even if Europe dodges Brexit at next
week’s referendum in the U.K. on its membership in the EU, economic
pressures and the refugee crisis will continue to strain relations
among member countries. The Commission, with its 32,000 employees and
sweeping responsibilities, should be the glue that holds it all
together. Instead, it’s a bystander.

The ultimate insider

With a career
steeped in European politics, the polyglot Juncker seemed uniquely
qualified for the post of Commission president. From the landmark
Maastricht Treaty to the EU’s eastern expansion to the formation of
Europe’s bailout fund, the Luxembourger had been in the middle of
every important EU negotiation for a generation. If Juncker couldn’t
navigate the politics between Brussels and the national governments,
his backers argued, no one could.

Yet he faced
difficulties from the outset.

Juncker
struggled to explain how in the decades he spent as finance minister
and prime minister he knew little to nothing about the dodgy
practices.

Within weeks of
taking office in November 2014, the so-called LuxLeaks documents,
which exposed the magnitude of Luxembourg’s soft-touch corporate
tax practices, were released. Juncker struggled to explain how in the
decades he spent as finance minister and prime minister he knew
little to nothing about the dodgy practices, even as they helped
transform tiny Luxembourg into a global financial center and one of
the world’s wealthiest countries on a per capita basis.

The scandal dented
Juncker’s credibility just as he was trying to restore Europeans’
trust in the EU. Then, with the election of the leftist Syriza party
in early 2015, the Greek crisis re-emerged. Juncker, a key actor on
Greece from the beginning as Eurogroup chief, would spend months
trying to broker yet another new deal for Athens.

Meanwhile, the
number of migrants trying to cross the Mediterranean had surged, the
beginnings of what would prove to be an even bigger challenge for
Juncker’s fledgling presidency.

A protégé of
Jacques Santer (another former Luxembourg premier and Commission
president) and Helmut Kohl, Juncker is credited with an innate
understanding of how to manage the delicate balance between Germany
and France, the EU’s foundation stone. It’s a role that leaders
from Luxembourg, a country with one foot in both the Germanic and
Francophone spheres, have long embraced.

“He
only really wants to listen to people who agree with the
Euro-federalist line and the rest he regards as mavericks and
populists” — Geoffrey Van Orden, British Conservative
MEP

Yet in Juncker’s
case, that focus has also proved be his weakness. A “Charlemagne
European,” one devoted to the original core countries, Juncker is
the personification of Old Europe, a throwback to an era that has
ended. Unlike the men who shaped the EU’s early days, Juncker
didn’t experience the war. But he shares their vision of Europe as
first and foremost a “peace project” along the Rhine.

Juncker has less
understanding or appreciation for the U.K. or the Union’s newer
eastern members, countries that have a different history and
priorities vis-à-vis Europe.

“Coming from
Luxembourg, he’s steeped in Euro-federalism. That’s the egg he’s
come out of,” said Geoffrey Van Orden, a British Conservative and
an MEP since 1999. “He only really wants to listen to people who
agree with the Euro-federalist line and the rest he regards as
mavericks and populists.”

‘Worried about his
health’

The disconnect
between Juncker and those who don’t share his federalist vision for
Europe has proved to be a major deficit, particularly during the
refugee crisis.

Juncker’s plan to
relocate 160,000 refugees across the EU so that countries would share
the burden of the crisis failed in large measure because of
resistance in Eastern Europe. The Commission’s recent proposal to
impose financial penalties on countries that don’t accept refugees
under the EU-Turkey pact has further antagonized relations between
Brussels and the East.

It hasn’t helped
that since becoming president Juncker has only traveled to one
country in the region, Latvia, which held the rotating EU presidency
in early 2015. When Juncker does travel, he tends to stay within what
Brussels officials call his “comfort zone,” the original six EU
countries, which he has visited 51 times since taking office,
according to Commission records.

“The Commission
president needs to maintain a constant dialogue with all member
states, particularly with the ones that have issues or problems with
the idea of the European Union,” said European Parliament Vice
President Alexander Graf Lambsdorff, a Liberal MEP.

Juncker’s aides
say the travel schedule is part of the overall structure of
delegating authority, but insist he still makes trips when needed.
Schinas pointed to Juncker’s travel schedule for the week starting
May 24, which included a trip to Japan for a G7 summit, then to
France for ceremony marking the 100th anniversary of the Battle of
Verdun, and stops in Luxembourg and Paris before returning to
Brussels.

Another factor is
his health. Plagued by kidney stones, Juncker has become increasingly
frail since taking over the presidency, his associates say.

“I’m a little
bit worried about his health and I know that I’m not the only one,”
Grässle said.

No one knows for
sure how serious Juncker’s health problems are. Schinas, his
spokesman, said, “The president is in very good shape and is
working full throttle.”

Just shy of 60 when
he assumed the presidency, Juncker often appears tired in public
appearances and speeches, or in press conferences at the end of
admittedly long EU summits.

His hard-charging
lifestyle has long been the stuff of legend in Brussels. A heavy
smoker with a nose for wine, Juncker has had to fend off accusations
about his drinking for years.

Dutch Finance
Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem, a frequent Juncker critic who succeeded
the Luxembourger as head of the Eurogroup, referred to him in 2014 as
a “heavy smoker and drinker,” comments for which he later
apologized. A Luxembourg journalist once quipped Juncker “doesn’t
have a problem with alcohol but without it.”

Juncker has
repeatedly denied he has an alcohol problem. Schinas said of the
comments from Dijsselbloem, “This matter has been clarified between
the two presidents. We are not in the business of reopening issues
that predated President Juncker’s appointment to the European
Commission.”

But incidents such
as the welcome ceremony for the EU summit in Latvia in 2015, during
which Juncker awkwardly slapped and kissed arriving dignitaries, have
done little to silence the talk about his sometimes eccentric
behavior. Asked about Juncker’s deportment at the Riga summit,
Schinas said that it was evidence of Juncker’s “very informal and
often cool style.”

Whatever the reason,
there’s no question Juncker has become increasingly less engaged.
He often keeps his Mondays free of outside meetings, records show.
Last year, his schedule was clear of outside meetings for almost all
of August.

Though he attends
summits and other marquee events, such as the Verdun trip, many
Brussels officials say they can’t remember the last time they saw
him.

“We never see
him,” one senior Berlaymont staffer said.

Schinas said Juncker
took few holidays and worked long hours. “Anyone who actually knows
the president knows he is the longest in the office and the most
reluctant to take time off — always found in the office on bank
holidays and only taking short breaks in the summer, certainly fewer
than his closest staff,” the spokesman said. “In 2015 he was only
away from Brussels for two weeks and in any case was permanently on
the phone and continuing to work as presidents don’t ever get time
off.”

When Juncker is
around, he is usually holed up in his office on the 13th floor of the
Berlaymont. He spends his days working the phones to Europe’s
capitals as he chain smokes, officials say. When he moved in, a
maintenance team reconfigured the ventilation system to accommodate
his smoking habit but visitors say his chambers still reek of stale
smoke. Schinas declined to comment on Juncker’s smoking or on the
ventilation system.

“It is not that he
is doing nothing, it is that he does a lot of it by phone,” a
senior EU official said. “He talks to a lot of leaders, he knows
everything, and that is obvious when you meet with him. He is ready.”

‘EU-depressed’

Officials who have
spent time recently with Juncker report that his mood has darkened as
Euroskeptic populists continue to gain ground across the Continent.

“He is less and
less positive about the EU and the abilities of the member states in
particular,” another senior EU official said. “You can say he is
EU-depressed. He has decided simply to focus hard on a few things,
especially migration and Greece. The rest doesn’t matter to him.”

The vacuum created
by Juncker’s disengagement has been filled in part by his powerful
number-two, Vice President Frans Timmermans, to whom he has delegated
key responsibilities. On Turkey, for example, it was Timmermans, not
Juncker, who negotiated for the Commission. Martin Selmayr, Juncker’s
chief of staff, has also gained influence, playing an increasingly
direct role behind the scenes, Commission officials said.

Juncker has
maintained his role as the Commission’s public face. Yet a number
of his recent interviews have sowed confusion and controversy.

Speaking recently
about Brexit to Le Monde he said: “Deserters will not be welcomed
back,” adding, “the U.K. will have to get used to being regarded
as a third-party state.”

His comments
followed a pledge by the Commission to stay out of the debate in
order to avoid inflaming passions.

Juncker’s most
controversial statements have been about France, however.

Asked at the end of
May why the Commission had repeatedly granted France leeway on its
budget deficits, Juncker answered: “Because it’s France.”

The response fueled
criticism that Juncker’s Commission favors big countries over
smaller ones and that the president, in particular, looks the other
way when Paris and Berlin bend regulations.

Some even accused
him of undermining the eurozone fiscal rules in the so-called
Stability and Growth Pact he helped write.

“I
find the Commission too weak and lacking the appropriate
understanding of the need that rules are to be followed” —
Jeroen Dijsselbloem, Dutch finance minister

“If the Commission
president says that things apply differently for France, then this
really damages the credibility of the Commission as guardian of the
pact,” Dijsselbloem, the Dutch finance minister, said in an
interview with several European papers. “It would be wise for the
Commission to pay a little more attention to its credibility.”

Such a public rebuke
of the Commission president, coming from Juncker’s successor as
Eurogroup chief no less, is rare in the upper echelons of the EU and
underscores the growing dismay with his administration.

Dijsselbloem wasn’t
the only one to wince at the comments. “When the president of the
European Commission when traveling to France declares publicly ‘Well,
France gets special treatment because it’s France.’ That is
unacceptable,” said Lambsdorff. “Call me a Germanic stickler for
rules but this is a community of law and we have a treaty concerning
the euro as well. As far as the euro is concerned, I find the
Commission too weak and lacking the appropriate understanding of the
need that rules are to be followed.”

‘Absurd’ to
resign early

Brussels’
chattering classes have even begun speculating about whether Juncker
will have to step down. The rumors aren’t new, but Juncker’s
inner circle is clearly unnerved.

After a Dutch
blogger repeated the rumor that Juncker would “retire soon” in a
tweet last month, Selmayr shot back: “With ‘soon’ you probably
mean ‘31 October 2019’. Indeed, that may be an early option.”

That date is the
final day of Juncker’s term.

Schinas underlined
that statement, saying Juncker would stay in office even if there is
a British vote to leave the EU — which some have speculated would
be his excuse to leave. “President Juncker will not resign,”
Schinas said. “It would be absurd for President Juncker to resign
over a referendum that he has not called.”

As the criticism
intensifies, Juncker’s supporters are racing to his defense.

“Terrorism,
illegal immigration, the euro crisis, Brexit. It’s not easy to be
leader of the European Commission,” said European Parliament Vice
President Antonio Tajani.

“My assessment of
Juncker’s term is really positive,” said Caresche, the French MP
and a close ally of Prime Minister Manuel Valls. “He understands
the need to deal carefully with member states.”

“He has understood
the need to focus Europe’s actions and not to interfere excessively
in member states’ affairs.”

“There
is not enough Europe in this Union. And there is not enough Union in
this Union” — Jean-Claude Juncker

What about Juncker’s
handling of the refugee crisis and the economy?

“I think he’s
made the right decisions and given this Commission the right
options,” said Pierre Moscovici, France’s commissioner, who
called Juncker “the best president the Commission has had since
Jacques Delors.”

Moscovici denied
suggestions that Juncker isn’t fully engaged.

“He is the pillar
of the Commission and he’s in full control,” he said. “He’s a
good manager.”

Even Juncker’s own
assessments have been less effusive.

“Our European
Union is not in a good state,” he said during his state of the
union address in September. “There is not enough Europe in this
Union. And there is not enough Union in this Union. We have to change
this. And we have to change this now.”