Tuesday, October 28, 2014

The easy way out of this narrative on the gubernatorial race would be
to call it a coin toss between Scott Walker and Mary Burke. All of the
polling data is pointing in that direction. The paradox of this campaign
is Walker should be winning handily and he’s not. Statistically
speaking, it’s a draw. In combination with the tangible elements of the
campaign, deciphering the qualitative complexities is a critical part of
the equation. The elusive variables of a campaign are the things you
can’t measure that are generally refined through experience. The more
experience you have, the better your instincts.
The Burke-Walker
race for governor is one of the most complicated political dynamics
Wisconsin has experienced in a long time. And, the incumbent may lose.
That could be construed as nothing short of heresy in the very red
county of Waukesha. There is a case to be made for either candidate to
win the election; my thesis dissects both sides of the argument. Few
people who are active in either camp would discount my line of reasoning
privately.

Some of the issues both candidates have been peddling
on the campaign trail should be put into perspective or just debunked.
Mary Burke is alleging we are headed for a $1.8 billion deficit, which
is as close to impossible as me being named the next archbishop of
Milwaukee. It assumes there will be no growth, or zero revenue growth.
If the state of Wisconsin continues at its current growth rate we would
likely achieve a balanced budget. So candidate Burke is fairly
heavy-handed on the assumption side of her analysis. Act 10 is a
non-issue at most kitchen tables in Wisconsin; it’s over, end of story,
and the Capitol protests lost a lot of folks on the issue of collective
bargaining rights. Privately, most municipal officials are happy with
the result. Walker has avoided the issue and, to many, it’s one of his
most significant achievements. His avoidance makes no sense.

Walker continues talking about 100,000 new jobs he’s created and the
horrible hand he was dealt when former Gov. Jim Doyle left office. He
promised he’d create 250,000 new jobs and hasn’t come close, so he’s
carving the turkey from the backside of the bird. Any candidate who
would have been elected in 2010 would have been left with a tough
economy and a bleak job market. His refrain is a tired whine, much like
President Obama blaming President Bush for his problems. Voters don’t
care. Walker claims to have put our house in good order financially but
there were plenty of developments nationally that contributed. The
Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) is something most people like, they want
it improved, and they are saving money on health care costs. The
frenzied pronouncements this would be the beginning of lousy health care
were never true and it was never a good issue for Walker.

Property taxes are lower because Walker gave us across-the-board tax
cuts, saving the average household around $150.00. But, he did so on the
back of education cuts; a claim that Burke has hammered in her
campaign. It’s mostly true. But he has also reprioritized the need for
post-high school training programs. Still, Mary Burke’s pizza slice
commercial is very effective and it looks like a decent pizza. And,
Walker’s tax cut won’t cover the heating bill for most households this
January.

Mary Burke, on the other hand, has tripped, stumbled,
tumbled, slipped, plummeted, plunged, and vaulted her way from obscurity
to make this a neck-and-neck race. She handled herself well in the
debates, although few people actually watched them. She avoided
embarrassing headlines and news reports. The charge of plagiarism on her
jobs plan was mishandled by her campaign. Lifting work from other
campaigns is done all the time and the accusation laughable to insiders.
Still, it was dumb. But it appears, according to the polls, she dodged a
bullet.

Jim Doyle and Mary Burke aren’t conjoined. Most people
only vaguely remember Doyle. Tying Burke to Doyle was a weak tactic.
There is research that demonstrates you can’t transfer the personal
popularity or disdain from one politician to another. The electorate
generally doesn’t blame candidates for prior association. Mary Burke’s
tenure as commerce secretary isn’t very relevant in this campaign. It’s
not like Jim Doyle was Jimmy Carter.

Burke hasn’t overplayed the
woman card. It was the right move. Women aren’t a homogenous horde of
Philistines who march in lock step to the single issue of the Emily’s
List’s movement: abortion. Women are increasingly finding the
single-issue resonance of Emily’s list abortion rights mantra insulting.
While Walker may not be winning the women’s vote, the real question is:
Will Burke win enough of it? While Walker’s ad, stating reasonable
people can disagree about abortion, given his strong pro-life
background, may have backfired. Many women found it offensive, not
because of his position but because it was insulting to all women by its
insincere pandering.

The charge of plagiarism on her jobs plan
was ludicrous but an issue that looked like it would stick. Walker’s
camps handled the initial reports very well. Lifting work from other
campaigns is done all the time and not only in the written word but also
in TV, direct mail, radio ads, and get-out-the-vote efforts. Does
anyone really believe Scott Walker wrote all his plans? Many thought
this would stick to Burke but it hasn’t.

Bill Clinton is a rock
star and helps build the Burke brand--the Obamas don’t. They should be
avoided; it hurts her. But again, not devastating.

Walker’s
inability to move the needle in terms of favorability is puzzling. He
hasn’t been a bad governor. He ran hard in the recall and has been
ballot-tested twice before. He can’t seem to move beyond that 45 percent
to 50 percent in the polls. It seems baffling for his campaign too. The
question is, why?

The constant news reports on the Walker John
Doe probe and the criminal acts of a half-dozen of his surrogates may
have left doubts in the minds of voters as to his culpability. He’s
never been charged. But the constancy of the news reports has taken its
toll. I have written in the past that it is morally and ethically wrong
to dangle unsubstantiated allegations tarnishing his name. And, it could
be the one of the underlining reasons, as the incumbent he appears so
vulnerable.

But Walker’s campaign has made mistakes. His campaign
should have demanded many more debates. It was a mistake to hold two
Friday night debates so close to the election and on high school
football night. Many of his own people encouraged more debates. It was
an opportunity to draw distinction with Burke on their respective
approach’s to governance and define each other on important issues. It
was a blown opportunity for people to get to know their governor.

When Scott Walker said in the last debate, “We don’t have a jobs
problem, we have a work problem,” the context in which he made the
statement was clear. But that’s not how it’s been reported and it hurt
him. He also blundered significantly opposing a modest minimum wage
increase. Over 70 percent of Wisconsinites support the increase. Despite
a 5.4 percent unemployment rate, real income for average families is
down more than $2,000 during Walker’s tenure. These are pocketbook
issues to voters. It created a huge opportunity for Burke on topics of
job creation and the modest minimum wage increase. She’s grabbed the
ball and continues to run with it.

There is an apparent and
mystifying disaffection with Walker and voters. It’s not quantifiable;
people who are passionate about him are very passionate and people who
dislike him really dislike him. In his own party, Republicans
overwhelmingly favor Congressman Paul Ryan as the GOP standard-bearer.

Walker is almost robotically smarmy; when speaking he seems
unapproachable. He tends to romanticize his tenure as governor and it’s
simply not jibing with the difficulties people continue to deal with as
we slog our way out of the recession. There is a discontent in the
electorate. Wisconsin is still struggling and there is a feeling of
stagnation and powerlessness that’s not parochial to our state.
Republican pollster Frank Luntz, responding to a recent CBS poll, said
there is a “crisis of confidence” in government institutions. He went on
to say, “I think it’s going to hurt incumbents. Take a look at the
governors’ races across the country, there are a number of incumbents
from both parties that look like they’re going down.”

When he was asked if there is an anti-incumbent sentiment, he responded, “Exactly.”
Weighing the option of change for change’s sake is part of the
intellectual deliberations voters consider when casting a vote. Francis
Bacon wrote in his treatise “Novum Organum,” “For man always believes
more readily that which he prefers. His feelings imbue and corrupt his
understanding in innumerable and sometimes imperceptible ways.” Weather,
and the lack of voter ID requirements, favor Burke, as imperceptible as
that seems. The extended forecast is for a seasonal and sunny day.
Scott Walker came into this race with something to lose but his hold on
the governorship has always been tentative. The 2012 recall should have
reminded him of this. Walker has failed to reconnect strongly with
voters. Mary Burke has stayed on message. It’s a simple message: We
could have, and should have, done better the past four years.

Mary Burke is the next Governor of Wisconsin…by a nose.

Mise le Meas

(Todd Robert Murphy pays attention and has orchestrated over 80
political campaigns, including some of the biggest upsets in Wisconsin.
You can contact him at toddrobertmurphy@gmail.com)

11 comments:

Why oh why hasn't Mary Burke done ads on the minimum wage issue? She would get all kinds of NEW voters if she did. It's been reported by many sources that minimum wage is thee issue, but crickets from Mary Burke's campaign. I don't get it.

You have 700,000 people in Wisconsin at poverty wages, many of them who don't vote or pay attention to the issues. I don't believe we have undecided voters in this state, it's 50/50. You love Scott Walker or you hate him. But if I could get a $2.85 an hour raise just for voting, or voting for Mary Burke, I'd sure as heck do it. I have nieces and nephews that are registering to vote based on this issue...but they learned about it from me. Nobody I work with (at a job center) or campaign for her with, can understand it either. It seems like a no-brainer.

I don't understand this bit about my property taxes falling. I live in Madison, and mine have gone up something like 8% a year for the last 3 years. I'm fine with paying my property taxes, but not with having them jump like they have to fund tax cuts for corporations.

The governor had his administration alter income tax withholding rates so workers have less taken out of each paycheck — about $520 a year for a married couple making a total of $80,000 a year — starting last April. Well OK, that might put more money in our pockets for a year but what happens when income tax filing time rolls around and that withholding must be made up? People who expect a refund will have an unpleasant surprise. How come nobody is talking about that?

I agree. It'll be quite an unpleasant surprise when people don't get much for their refunds next winter. But Walker and WisGOP were hoping to still be in office and leave you holding the bag. Cool, huh?

" Mary Burke is alleging we are headed for a $1.8 billion deficit, which is as close to impossible as me being named the next archbishop of Milwaukee"Murphy has not payed attention to all the facts on this issue. Do a little reading Murphy.