2014 Senate rankings: Map favors GOP

With four months until Election Day, Republicans are as close to winning the Senate as they’ve been since losing it in 2006.

Six months ago, the GOP path to the majority was narrower: Republicans essentially had to sweep seven races in states Barack Obama lost in 2012 but where Democrats currently hold seats. Unlikely, in other words.

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2014 races defined by energy issues

Now Republicans have more options. They’ve landed top recruits to take on first-term senators in New Hampshire and Colorado, nominated credible female candidates in open-seat contests in Michigan and Iowa, protected all of their incumbents from tea party challenges and thwarted more conservative candidates that could have hurt the GOP’s chances in states like North Carolina and Georgia.

With the general election field all but set, Republicans are looking to turn the midterms into a national referendum on Obama. Democrats want the focus to be squarely on the candidates, and they’re spending the typically quiet summer months trying to define Republican hopefuls as unlikeable and extreme.

Obama’s approval rating continues to hover around his all-time lows, especially in the GOP-leaning states that will decide control of the upper chamber. Obamacare is not as toxic now as during the disastrous HealthCare.gov rollout, but it undeniably remains a drag on Democrats. The jury is still out on the economy: The Commerce Department announced a 2.9 percent decline in first-quarter gross domestic product late last month, but then the Labor Department reported last week that the unemployment rate in June had dropped to 6.1 percent.

Republicans are expected to pick up seats in South Dakota, West Virginia and Montana, where longtime Democratic incumbents are retiring or have already resigned. From there, they need to net three more seats to take control of the chamber. Fifty-five senators currently caucus with Democrats, 45 with Republicans.

With that in mind, here are the 10 truly competitive races, ranked in order of likelihood of a party change.

1. Louisiana

Democrats feel more hopeful than they did a few months ago about Sen. Mary Landrieu’s reelection prospects. She became chairwoman of the Energy and Natural Resources Committee, which helps in the oil-rich state. And she ran effective biographical spots that showcased her still-popular father Moon, who has special appeal to crucial African-American voters after helping integrate New Orleans as mayor in the 1970s.

But Republicans are confident that Landrieu’s “clout” argument won’t get her to 50 percent in November, especially when Obama continues to block construction of the Keystone XL pipeline and pushes Environmental Protection Agency regulations. That would almost certainly mean an early-December runoff, likely with GOP Rep. Bill Cassidy, a relatively bland medical doctor.

Landrieu is a notoriously relentless politician. That’s helped her survive even as the state has become redder. But she has an exceedingly difficult job this fall: to drive up black voter turnout and simultaneously appeal to independents and conservative Democrats who disapprove of Obama.

2. Arkansas

It turns out Mark Pryor is not Blanche Lincoln. In 2010, there was never much doubt that Lincoln — one of only three Democratic Senate incumbents to lose reelection in the past decade — would get wiped out. Republicans saw Pryor as a dead man walking when Rep. Tom Cotton got into the race and cleared the field. But the conventional wisdom has shifted; big Democratic TV buys drove up Cotton’s negatives, and the race is very much in play. After some public polls showed Pryor ahead, a handful of Republican internal surveys have shown Cotton in the lead.

Pryor, who didn’t even draw a Republican opponent in 2008, is a skilled retail campaigner with an independent image. But Arkansas has grown more conservative, and Pryor has voted for every signature Obama initiative, including Obamacare. Despite Cotton’s controversial votes, whether against the farm bill or the Violence Against Women Act, he is a slight favorite at this point.

3. North Carolina

Freshman Sen. Kay Hagan does not have an established family “brand” like Landrieu and Pryor, which makes it easier to run against her as a generic Obama Democrat. But the president is more popular in North Carolina — he lost the state in 2012 by only 2 percentage points — than in Louisiana or Arkansas.

After conservative outside groups spent tens of millions bombarding Hagan, women’s groups are now rallying to her defense. But, because she was elected in 2008, all her major accomplishments are the accomplishments of an unpopular administration. Republicans plan to run a campaign against Hagan similar to the one she ran against Elizabeth Dole in 2008: tying her to the president and calling her an ineffective legislator.

State House Speaker Thom Tillis won the nomination without a runoff. He is now overseeing a special session of the state Legislature, which brings some political headaches, along with stories about GOP infighting. Hagan’s path to victory requires destroying Tillis’ image in a way that drives women and African-Americans to the polls.

4. Alaska

Even though Mitt Romney won the state by 14 points, freshman Sen. Mark Begich looks better positioned than any other Democratic incumbent running in a state carried by the GOP ticket in 2012.

The former mayor of Anchorage has run a flawless campaign thus far, and operatives on both sides agree this race will remain tight until the end. Begich’s ads have highlighted his fights with the Obama administration on behalf of the state. And he has benefited from a well-funded super PAC that has battered GOP challenger Dan Sullivan with millions in attack ads.

This may not be enough. Sullivan, a Marine and former natural resources commissioner, is heavily favored to win a three-way August primary over Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell and Joe Miller, who defeated Lisa Murkowski in a 2010 primary and lost in the general. Both Treadwell and Miller teamed up on Sullivan in a recent debate, but Club for Growth and American Crossroads are unified behind the front-runner.

Miller remains a wild card. He’s not going to win the primary. But he hasn’t ruled out running as a third-party candidate, and in a close race he could siphon enough votes to be a spoiler.

5. Iowa

The race to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Tom Harkin feels like a true toss-up. State Sen. Joni Ernst rode late momentum to a GOP primary romp. Rep. Bruce Braley, from northeast Iowa, cleared the Democratic field and has had a year to build up an infrastructure and raise money. But Braley has also made unforced errors, including a disparaging comment about Sen. Chuck Grassley’s background as a farmer.

Ernst is poised, has a good bio — she’s from a rural area and is in the Army Reserve — and is running as an outsider. And Republican Terry Branstad, who’s favored to win reelection to a sixth term as governor, could give her a boost. But Ernst also took positions in the primary that could hurt her in the general, from opposing minimum-wage increases to criticizing the Clean Water Act.