Sports Handicapping Information

This section lists the key performance statistics for each team in various situations. StatFox provides applicable team stats when playing home or away. Categories where a team has performed poorly are denoted in red. Categories where a team has performed well are denoted in green. These stats can be critical when considering that many teams play vastly different when at home as opposed to on the road. Teams’ situational stats can serve as an excellent compliment to a trend or system that may be sided one way or another. Below each stat table is the average Power Rating of opponents played. Comparing the ratings is a good indication as to the validity of the stats they have compiled at any point of the season.

Legend

W-L - The team's win/loss record.

Units - The number of wager units up or down, assuming one unit wagered on each of the team's games.

O-U - The number of games where the team went Over Or Under the posted total.

KR-YDS - Kickoff returns and kickoff return yards as per game averages. (gained or allowed)

YPKR - Kickoff return yards per return. (gained or allowed)

PR-YDS - Punt returns and punt return yards as per game averages. (gained or allowed)

YPPR - Punt return yards per return. (gained or allowed)

PEN-YDS - Team (offense) and opponent (defense) penalties and penalty yards per game.

How do I use this?

The key to utilizing the stat tables is to identify the green and red statistics in the team's chart. These will help explain a team's strengths and their weaknesses. You can identify factors like if a team is a good passing team or if their defensive is poor against the run. Do they perform worse in road games than overall? Do one team's green offensive stat categories correspond to red categories in their opponent's defense? If so, this could identify a possible matchup problem. You get the point. Identify the team's strength's and weaknesses. Compare their stats against their opponents. Try to utilize the stat table to visualize how the game will be played and what weaknesses can be exploited!

A: Statistics are compared up against the historical averages of all teams in recent seasons. If a statistic is in the upper 20% when compared against all past teams, it is designated as good. Conversely, if it is in the bottom 20%, it is designated as bad.

Q: What are the key statistics to look at?

A: Certainly the answer is a little different depending on which brand of football you are handicapping. However, in general you should always focus on offensive efficiency defined by yards per play. This statistic tells you how efficient a team is at moving the football or stopping their opponents. In the NFL passing yards per play and rushing yards per game are generally regarding as important statistics. In college football, rushing yards per attempt is also an important indicator of a dominant running game or rushing defense.

You should also consider turnovers. However, in many instances, you should go against conventional wisdom when analyzing turnovers. Turnovers are often the result of bad luck. Many handicappers subscribe to the theory that you are better off playing on teams with bad turnover differentials and play against teams with good turnover differentials. The theory being that the luck will even out eventually.

Q: What is YPPT telling me?

A: Total yards gained per point is a good indicator of a "bend but don't break" defense or an indicator of an offense that can't capitalize on its opportunities (because of turnovers, missed field goals, or inability to score touchdowns in the red zone.) Sometimes the top scoring and defensive teams aren't amongst the leaders in total yards. Total yards per point (YPPT) can tell the rest of the story.

A: These are schedule strength indicators. Many FoxSheet members mistakenly confuse these statistics a team's offensive or defensive per game averages. Instead these statistics tell you the average statistics of all opponents that this team has played going into the current game. In the example above, Philadelphia had played a rather weak schedule leading into this game. Their opponents played thus far scored on average just 19.4 PPG, while surrendering 24.9. i.e. They were 5.5 points worse than an average team. (which is defined by an equal offensive and defensive PPG)

Q: Under the stat tables, what does the line 'Average Power Rating of Opponents Played' refer to?

A: This is another schedule strength indicator, utilizing the StatFox power rating system. The higher the number, the "tougher" the schedule that the team has played. In college football, this is a very important factor as some teams will play decidedly tougher schedules than others. If you see a matchup between two teams with far different schedule strengths, you should use caution when handicapping with statistics! Statistics generated by teams that play weak schedules are often not as impressive as they appear on paper.