Nest Reports

Each quarter, Nest Realty puts out an amazing piece of information we like to call our Nest Report. The Nest Report is a look at the real estate market, sans sales-speak – pure data, no fluff. It’s an incredible document full of helpful real estate market stats for the New River Valley, and you can see past examples at NewRiverValleyMarketReports.com.

While these are really great ways to better understand the NRV real estate market, it takes a lot of work to put these out on a quarterly basis – and as you know, the market will change faster than every quarter. With that in mind, we’ve started taking our quarterly Nest Reports and condensing them into monthly reports, as well. It’s a lot of work, but we’ll do our best to keep these coming – we think that the more information you have at your disposal, the better-informed your selling and purchasing decisions can be! Click the links below to read the various reports:

Since January 1, it seems, real estate agents in Blacksburg seem to have been saying – to each other, to their clients, to anyone – what IS going on in the Blacksburg real estate market?

Historically we follow a traditional bell curve, with more properties starting to come on the market in Mach, climbing to a high around May/June/July, and then falling to yearly lows in November and December … only to do it all again the following year. That’s what it’s USUALLY like.

But 2016 hasn’t been usual, it seems, so this morning – as part of a project for someone else – I decided to look at sales figures YTD in Blacksburg. I was looking only at single-family homes (think detached, not townhomes or condos) in Town limits, and what I found was surprising. I talked a bit about it on Twitter this afternoon – are we connected there?

I have to say, the results are surprising, but this is one reason why I love statistics, because in this case what we feel versus what is actual are somewhat different. While it felt as if the market was moving exponentially faster than in previous years, it really hasn’t been – inventory has followed a traditional track, while buyer demand has increased, thus increasing prices and driving down the length of time homes have been staying on the market. Good for sellers, maybe not so good for buyers, because increased demand doesn’t mean buyers are going to get good deals. Within our office we’ve seen more multiple offer situations this year than in years past, and that’s left some buyers discouraged.

Last year at this time, we were reporting a very unusual quarter. While the first quarter of 2014 saw brisk sales, particularly for that time of year, the second quarter lagged, and we were left shaking our heads. It wasn’t until the third quarter that it made sense – Montgomery County Public Schools had a short (42 day) summer last year, and so real estate sales were pushed aside as folks squeezed all their summer fun into six weeks.

Not the case this year, and the market has responded. The full report is posted below, and as you can see most sectors of the market have rebounded quite nicely.

Christiansburg townhomes, traditionally slower due to an oversupply, have surged back in the last 24 months.

Floyd County, which will see slower sales as a result of being considered “rural” by the market, saw a decrease in inventory, and a 35% INCREASE in median sales prices.

Blacksburg hit a median sales price (for single family homes) of $300000, the first time we’ve ever seen that level reached.

As always, there are positives and negatives in every report, and there are some indicators that say we are not a robust market yet. Condo sales continue to lag, and will do so until the financing environment is on par with traditional financing – as median sales prices rise, condo affordability (and availability) will continue to be an important gateway to the first-time buyer, so we need that market to improve with the help of Willow And Everett. Overall, however, the second quarter of 2015 in the New River Valley real estate market was very different from what we saw at this time a year ago.

There are tons of things I’m proud of about Nest Realty, but one of the things I get really excited about is our Nest Report. It’s a statistical look at what’s happening in the New River Valley real estate market, and it’s put out every quarter. Visually, it’s stunning – thanks to the amazing folks in our Marketing Department, the lead generation is looking better every day. Statistically, it’s one of the most accurate representations of our real estate market – thanks to the bean counters who compile the whole thing. And, interestingly enough, two real estate agents from another company told me yesterday how impressive a report it is … they look through it each time it comes out and think “wow”.

Median and Average Sales Prices both fell 3% in 2014 throughout the New River Valley MSA.

In Blacksburg, the Median Price was flat, but inventory was up slightly.

In Radford, Median Price was up quite a bit, rising more than 12% from 2013 levels.

Conventional Interest rates, projected to be at or above 5% by the end of 2014, were actually at 4%, much lower than expected by those in the know – proving once again that no one has any much of a clue.

We’re extremely proud of what has been happening at Nest Realty, and the Report will talk a little bit about that, as well. The full report will be hitting mailboxes soon, but here’s a sneak peak! You can see earlier reports here.

The Nest Report, our quarterly look at the real estate market in the New River Valley, is out for the third quarter of 2014. I wrote in August that the second quarter of 2014 was different than expected, and at the time we didn’t really know why. I suspected it was because of a very short summer for Montgomery County Public Schools, and from what we’ve seen in Q3 and now, Q4, I think that that was, in fact, much of the reason for the slow down.

Throughout the New River Valley, most of the metrics tracked showed nominal change from the same quarter in 2013 – median sales prices, inventory levels, and total sales were all basically flat. Where we saw the most fluctuation was in the various Towns and locales, with tracked metrics bouncing up and down all over the place.

As we head into winter, we expect to see the historical slowdown before the spring market heats up in Q2 2015, leaving opportunities for buyers and sellers who are ready, willing, and able to act now while rates continue to be held down.

To say that the second quarter of 2014 has been unusual would be an understatement. Pockets of the market excelled, while others did not. Inventory was up, median sales were down, and yet there were more contracts written in the second quarter of 2014 than there were in the second quarter of 2013.

While the New River Valley saw the strongest first quarter performance in the past five years in Q1, Q2 sales are the lowest they’ve been since 2011. Some properties have been flying off the shelves, while others – despite good prices – have been sitting idle for some time, and there’s admittedly some anxiety among sellers (and agents) as to specifically why. My line of thinking is that an extremely compressed summer for the public schools in Montgomery County is partly to blame, as families rushed to get vacation and camp plans together and not much thought was given to housing unless folks HAD to move. Nevertheless, it’s going to be interesting to see what shakes out in Q3 and Q4 of this year … the signs still tell us that there’s a potential for bounce back through the rest of the year, but we’ll just have to wait and see.

Total Sales: Total sales increased almost 13% in Q1 2014 for the overall MSA in comparison to Q1 2013. With 296 homes solds, this shows a strong opening quarter for 2014 which is a positive indicator that we will see strong performance in the remainder of 2014.

Inventory: Total inventory levels increased 3.12% from Q1 2013. However, given the increase in sales this quarter, months of inventory decreased 8.59% compared to Q1 2013, which is an indicator of a strengthening market.

Contracts Written: The number of contracts written rose 2.11% from Q1 2013 which is yet another indicator that we will see strong activity this spring.

Median Home Prices: Median home prices have decreased overall by 8.96%; however, Christiansburg saw the median home price increase by 6.45%. With the increase in the number of sales and reduction in inventory, we expect to see the median home price increase for the overall MSA in the next two quarters of 2014.

After lots and lots of reading, writing, and ‘rithmetic, the 2013 Annual Nest Report is out and finally available! The Nest Report is our look, quarterly and annually, at what’s happening in the New River Valley real estate market. No bull, just a look at the numbers …

Some highlights:

Median prices are up throughout the Metropolitan Statistical Area

Days on Market are down

Inventory levels are down

Overall, positive trends throughout the New River Valley. The challenges we’ve faced have in most cases eased, although there are still pockets of the New River Valley that continue to lag behind. Some of that may change with time, but only time will tell. In the case of products like town homes, supply cannot continue to outpace demand, and condos are following the same path, with buyers finding financing to be difficult. Some of that may ease, and some may be a challenge for a while going forward. Nevertheless, things have improved in the New River Valley in 2013, and 2014 seems to be continuing on the same trend. Take a look through the report below, and if you’d like to receive our quarterly Nest Reports, by email, let me know and I’ll get you signed up!

It was a good year for the New River Valley real estate market, and it was a good year for Nest Realty, as well. Among our four offices – now five, including our office in Asheville, NC – we saw sales climb to $315 million, and Inc.com naming us as one of the fastest growing real estate companies in the country. We are grateful for the opportunity to work with each of you in the communities we serve. Thank you – We live where we love.

Despite a blip in the numbers in Christiansburg this past quarter, it still appears that we’re headed in the right direction. As I mentioned in an interview, buyers – and sellers – seem to be moving in and out of the market on a fairly consistent basis, and although we’ll see a seasonal slow-down heading into the winter months, indicators seem to be that 2014 is on target for a somewhat stable real estate environment in the New River Valley.

Want to receive this report by mail? Email me with your mailing address, and I’ll be sure to add you to the list (and I’ll never SPAM you).

Recently here, WSLS’ Jenna Zibton interviewed a client of mine, and myself, regarding the market here in the New River Valley. We’d just put out the 2Q 2013 Nest Report, and she wanted to know why things seemed to be moving again.

Companies may offer various payment methods such as certified funds, cash, pre-scheduled cash payments, or perhaps they may even take over the existing mortgage completely. With https://homebuyersusa.com/, multiple options offered, and may find a solution that suits their needs.

Truthfully, I don’t know think it has something to do with buyers (and sellers) who’ve been on the sideline and are finally jumping into the market. Other sectors of our economy are doing better, and housing seems to be following that trend. It’s not a perfect situation, to be sure, but certainly better than where it was.

‘There’s no way of knowing what’s going to happen but it does seem like houses aren’t on the market as long as they were a few years ago so we’re feeling positive about it,’ said Kolivras.

‘There’s been a significant change in both buyer and seller interest in real estate here the last 18 months,’ said Jeremy Hart, a Nest Realty Agent.

In the NRV region, second quarter sales are the highest they’ve been since 2008. So far this year sales numbers are up more than 8-percent over last year with 781 homes sold.

Hart says in the first six months of the year, 21% of homes were put under contract less than 14 days after being put on the market.

‘A lot of it has been pent-up buyer demand people who have been watching what’s been happening in other sectors of the economy and now feeling good about making a decision to buy or sell here in the area,’ said Hart.

He says having Virginia Tech and Radford University helps. The area never saw an extreme slump.

‘That’s due in large part to we’ve had pretty conservative financing over the past several years we haven’t seen a lot of risky loans,’ said Hart.

Average NRV sales prices are up too. Numbers provided by Hart are for the first and second quarters of each year.

2008 – $188,763

2009 – $176,456

2010 – $169,866

2011 – $170,399

2012 – $177,444

‘We’re cautiously optimistic that will see this continue for the foreseeable future,’ said Hart.

The data relating to real estate on this website comes in part from the Broker Reciprocity/IDX (Internet Data Exchange) Program of the New River Valley Multiple Listing Service, Inc. Real estate listings held by brokerage firms other than Nest Realty are marked with the Broker Reciprocity logo (IDX) and detailed information about them includes the name of the broker.