Vegas oddsmakers: Despite futures prices, Lakers are not second best team in West

Vegas oddsmakers: Despite futures prices, Lakers are not second best team in West

According to the futures boards at multiple sports books, it’s Warriors No. 1 in the West, Lakers No. 2 and Rockets No. 3. But according to oddsmakers, Houston is better than L.A. and would be favored over the Lakers on a neutral court.

Marcus DiNitto is managing editor of BetChicago, overseeing the editorial direction of the company and making sure it aligns with the company's broader strategies and objectives. He has held ME roles at SportsBusiness Daily, Sporting News and The Linemakers. Marcus has an MBA from UNC-Charlotte.

There’s a discrepancy in Las Vegas between the futures odds and the power ratings among the top Western Conference teams.
According to the futures board at multiple sports books, it’s Warriors No. 1 in the West, Lakers No. 2 and Rockets No. 3. But according to the oddsmakers at those books, Houston is better than L.A. and would be favored over the Lakers on a neutral court.
Houston -3.5 is the estimate from Jeff Sherman, manager at the Westgate SuperBook. Jason Simbal, vice president of risk management at CG Technology, went even higher, to Houston -5.
“I’m basing it off what the Rockets were against Cleveland last year. Houston was -3 in Cleveland,” Simbal said in a text message to BetChicago. “And the Lakers are currently constructed similar to Cleveland.”
At the Westgate, the Lakers’ odds to win the NBA title were moved to 7/2 upon Sunday’s news that [LeBron James was heading to L.A.](https://www.betchicago.com/lebron-james-agrees-4-deal-lakers) That made them the co-second favorites to win it all, equal with the Celtics and behind only the Warriors.
Asked Monday if adding LeBron really made the Lakers the second or third best team in the league, oddsmaker Ed Salmons deadpanned, “No. Future books are based on perception. People want to come in and bet the Lakers with LeBron, so their odds are obviously going to be lower just because that's how your books work. Cavaliers odds were always lower because LeBron played for ‘em.
“If their team is essentially what they have now, the Warriors and Rockets are clearly well ahead of them,” Salmons added of the Lakers. “You could argue they're the third best team. “
Since our conversation with Salmons, DeMarcus Cousins [agreed to a one-year deal with the Warriors](https://www.betchicago.com/demarcus-cousins-warriors). Golden State’s NBA championship odds are now 4/7, while the Celtics are 9/2, the Lakers 5/1 and the Rockets fourth at 13/2. It’s similar at CG, where the Warriors are -150, the Lakers 4/1 and the Rockets 7/1.
Our theme holds true with projected Golden State vs. Houston point spreads – the Warriors will be bigger favorites over the Rockets than they will over the Lakers, the bookmakers say.
Simbal makes the spread “somewhere in the Warriors -3 range,” while the Westgate’s Jeff Sherman offered 3.5 or 4 post-Cousins, just a shade higher than the 3, 3.5 that Salmons, his colleague, estimated pre-Cousins.
“Cousins is going to attract (bettors) in the future book, but as high as a power rating they had, he’s not going to mean that much,” Sherman said of the Warriors. “If it comes out one day that Cousins is out of the lineup, the point spread will barely move. So he doesn't have a day-to-day impact like that.”
So, as you peruse the NBA futures below, keep in mind that they won’t line up perfectly with the point spreads you’ll be betting against come October.
## Odds to win 2018-19 NBA title (Westgate)
*(current as of Tuesday, July 3; opening lines in parantheses if changed)*
Golden State WARRIORS 4/7 (5/4)
Boston CELTICS 9/2 (8/1)
Los Angeles LAKERS 5/1 (20/1)
Houston ROCKETS 13/2 (7/2)
Philadelphia 76ERS 14/1 (7/2)
Toronto RAPTORS 60/1 (40/1)
Oklahoma City THUNDER 60/1
San Antonio SPURS 80/1 (25/1)
Utah JAZZ 80/1 (60/1)
Portland TRAIL BLAZERS 100/1 (80/1)
New Orleans PELICANS 100/1 (80/1)
Milwaukee BUCKS 100/1
Washington WIZARDS 100/1
Indiana PACERS 100/1
Miami HEAT 200/1 (20/1)
Minnesota TIMBERWOLVES 200/1 (80/1)
Denver NUGGETS 200/1 (100/1)
Detroit PISTONS 200/1 (300/1)
Dallas MAVERICKS 200/1 (300/1)
New York KNICKS 300/1 (100/1)
Los Angeles CLIPPERS 300/1 (100/1)
Charlotte HORNETS 300/1
Chicago BULLS 300/1
Cleveland CAVALIERS 500/1 (30/1)
Phoenix SUNS 500/1 200/1
Orlando MAGIC 500/1
Memphis GRIZZLIES 500/1
Brooklyn NETS 1000/1 (300/1)
Sacramento KINGS 1000/1 (300/1)
Atlanta HAWKS 1000/1

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