Had a chance to look over some old stats and found Indian pitchers ranked 4th highest in the AL in BB. Also, Indian fielders ranked 4th highest in the AL in errors. These two simple stats have to improve greatly in 2012 if the Indians are to contend.

Seems to be a clear message for people trying out for the back end SP to pound the zone. Also, Chisenhall has to improve tremendously offensively or defensively, or he won't be playing. Period.

GhostofTedCox wrote:Had a chance to look over some old stats and found Indian pitchers ranked 4th highest in the AL in BB. Also, Indian fielders ranked 4th highest in the AL in errors. These two simple stats have to improve greatly in 2012 if the Indians are to contend.

Seems to be a clear message for people trying out for the back end SP to pound the zone. Also, Chisenhall has to improve tremendously offensively or defensively, or he won't be playing. Period.

Chiz's offensive stats in September were nice. Hopefully this is a result of adjustments to the speed of the game in the majors. I'd take a .761 OPS for 2012.

Now on the BB thing. I hate walks (from my pitchers). I don't care if it's rec ball, HS ball or the majors, that has to improve. Walks eat up pitch counts, puts defenders on their heals, and leads to runs.

I think they'll rework his contract into a 1-year incentive laden deal with options for a 2nd year (maybe even a 3rd year based on vesting options). Unless the FO knows they can get a CF'er elsewhere (read: B.J. Upton).

I think they'll rework his contract into a 1-year incentive laden deal with options for a 2nd year (maybe even a 3rd year based on vesting options). Unless the FO knows they can get a CF'er elsewhere (read: B.J. Upton).

Seems reasonable for both ideas but would be surprised if any deal is announced before rule V. Not a huge issue IMO but might want to keep a couple fringe just for depth.

I think they'll rework his contract into a 1-year incentive laden deal with options for a 2nd year (maybe even a 3rd year based on vesting options). Unless the FO knows they can get a CF'er elsewhere (read: B.J. Upton).

Hasn't there been whispers that Grady does not necessarily want to do that?

He is here to stay, takes two years to get your strength back after microfacture. They are going to keep him and see if he can reestablish trade value

I have to believe there is no way the tribe will just pick up his option. Essentially a bag of 9 million dollars is ALOT for a team like Cleveland and given the state of baseball economics, despite the HUGE attendence increase cannot risk spending that much Grady Sizemore. Its just too big of commitment considering the price and the risk. Now we have only really been talking about 2012 but what do you do about 2013?.....CF is a void again. More Good news - Hafners deathlock will finally be coming off the books in 2013 too..There is alot of cash that will/can be freed up over the 2012 and 2013 seasons IMO and it will be interesting to see how it gets used.

But I think the tribe has to take on salary this off season, whether it is a trade or FA pick up the tribe will have a stack of 9 million dollars at least to improve the team. I am not saying they will use it all, but Cleveland will try to be aggressive/creative i think. If they do their homework and stay true to competeing in 2012, they will certainly make a move(s) that improves the team ..We traded our right and left for Jimenez. That takes baseballs. I think 1 or 2 solid moves could (and would) improve the ML team substainally. Really there is a nice "window" here to make committed run at it in 2012 for several different reasons and that might be enough for the FO to push all in for 2012-13. Having a chunk of money (hopefully-2013 in particular) before to many other Indians salaries grow to large, look to have a good possibly great even, core of young players ready to break out in 12-13, alot of team friendly contracts, being in a winnable division IMO for example. A poor showing in 2012 (Jimenez/LaPorta in particular) coupled with a successful performance from Pomeranz, and can't forget White and Gardner will be really hard for me as a Cleveland fan to take. It was a huge risk trading for Jimenez so they better not back off now - .... I just want them to get it right (like everyone does) and coming round again, if they end up just picking his option up AS-IS I will consider that a terrible financial decision. I am 100% against it and if it happens I sincerely hope he proves me wrong. I guarantee we will see trades/contracts alot better than Sizemores 2012 option this off-season. Of course circumstances differ, like a player being chronically injured for 2 seasons in a row for example. Stuff like that will be used to explain why this and that deal is either as good or as bad as Sizemores 8.5 mil option is. There will be fresh face(s) in next years line-up Sizemore/LaPorta are on the hot seat and Sizemore is as good as gone if he doesn't agree to a new contract with the tribe.

All of you guys who were in on Allen Craig, excellent, excellent call. If I am the Cards I am not trading him now. Well thats negotiable but think he just scored for the Cards all over the place. Talk about baseball... So who is the next Allen Craig-type... Think RH...

Allen Craig entered the 2011 season as a potential rookie of the year.. having only 114 AB's in 2010 on his resume.. The year he had could be considered magical or phenomenal.. His teammate, David Freese, didn't have much more experience and is now World Series MVP. Finding the next one of these guys... and right handed?.. A tall order.. but, here's a go:

Gary Brown, SF Giants, Outfielder with speed, more speed..and did I say speed?Travis d'Arnaud, Toronto Blue Jays, Catcher with all the skills needed to excel Nick Franklin, Seattle Mariners, SS, great range and good hands. Could be as good as he wants..Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles, SS, could grow into a power hitting 3B or stay at SS and dominateDevin Mesoraco, Cincinnati Reds, a Catcher good enough to let a .300 hitting incumbent goJesus Montero, New York Yankees, a DH/1B/e-C: he'll be hidden as a defensive player, but he can hit.. Jurickson Profar, Texas Rangers, SS.. Think Alex Rodriguez before steroids.. a natural, if ever there was oneWilin Rosario, New York Mets, Catcher, Power, great feet and howitzer arm.. runs pretty well too..Miguel Sano, Minnesota Twins, SS, like Machado and Profar.. this kid is a natural..Mike Trout, Anaheim Angels, OF, Five tool guy with unlimited ability.

The Shortstop grouping on this list could have Francisco Lindor, Christian Colon & Adeiny Hechevarria added to it. This is the strongest group of SS's that I've seen in a lonnnnnggggg while...

I'd be willing to say the Tribe parts ways with Grady, 9 mil for a part time player isnt worth it. Sizemore was once the face of the org. for a brief time. For 9 mil the Tribe could sign Coco Crisp as a replacement and an arm for a player like Aaron Harang who signed for 5 mil last yr with the Padres, Im not saying sign Harang the Padres still have his option btw but a useful innings eater from the pitching staff.I wouldnt be surprised to see the Tribe bring in a guy Ryan Doumit to play 1b and backup a little at C. Jason Kubel and Michael Cuddyer are guys Id be willing to say the Tribe goes after but so will alot of other teams.I wouldnt rule the Tribes interest in acq. Allen Craig out, The Cards could opt to max his value now and the Tribe has plenty of arms in the pen that could be expendable.There were some hot rumors that the Tribe and Rays were close to a deal for BJ Upton at the deadline, I believe it was very near. Fact is the Tribe will still have to give up almost the same exact deal to get it done, this is one to watch IMO the Tribe could also try to pry away an arm as well like Jeff Niemmen who is set for a pay increase. Obviously the Tribe would have to part with more than the rumored Marson, Raffy Perez in that type deal.I look for the Tribe to be aggressive and creative once again in looking for deals to get done. The tribe may not be able to land that superstar player but dont rule out a potential star type player such as Kubel, Cuddyer, Upton.Also Im expecting to see the Tribe add a starter either via tr. or as a FA signing. The Tribe still has depth in the system in Pitching (mostly RP) and C.

See ya Grady. His agent is unwilling to rework his contract.....so barring a last minute change of heart by the agent, the Indians are going to decline his option and let him become a free agent but continue to talk to him. Perhaps once the agent realizes he will not get much of a deal in FA the Indians may re-enter the picture.

TonyIPI wrote:See ya Grady. His agent is unwilling to rework his contract.....so barring a last minute change of heart by the agent, the Indians are going to decline his option and let him become a free agent but continue to talk to him. Perhaps once the agent realizes he will not get much of a deal in FA the Indians may re-enter the picture.

Read an article today that said the OF market, particularly the CF market, this offseason is rather weak and speculated that actually might give Grady a little more leverage in negotiations... but, we'll see.

TonyIPI wrote:See ya Grady. His agent is unwilling to rework his contract.....so barring a last minute change of heart by the agent, the Indians are going to decline his option and let him become a free agent but continue to talk to him. Perhaps once the agent realizes he will not get much of a deal in FA the Indians may re-enter the picture.

Read an article today that said the OF market, particularly the CF market, this offseason is rather weak and speculated that actually might give Grady a little more leverage in negotiations... but, we'll see.

TonyIPI wrote:See ya Grady. His agent is unwilling to rework his contract.....so barring a last minute change of heart by the agent, the Indians are going to decline his option and let him become a free agent but continue to talk to him. Perhaps once the agent realizes he will not get much of a deal in FA the Indians may re-enter the picture.

Read an article today that said the OF market, particularly the CF market, this offseason is rather weak and speculated that actually might give Grady a little more leverage in negotiations... but, we'll see.

Yeah, I think Sizemore is gonna end up surprising people with how much he ends up getting. As said, the market is pretty thin. IMO the Phillies make sense. And wouldn't rule out the Yanks.

According to Buster Olney the front runners for Grady apparently are the Nationals (who are in on every OF rumor) the Brewers and a third team i can't remember. i can't see the Yankees being involved (they wouldn't need him in cf or lf and wouldn't trust him even as a replacement of in right) but the Phillies could be a possibility due to Charlie Manuel.

ACrank wrote:According to Buster Olney the front runners for Grady apparently are the Nationals (who are in on every OF rumor) the Brewers and a third team i can't remember. i can't see the Yankees being involved (they wouldn't need him in cf or lf and wouldn't trust him even as a replacement of in right) but the Phillies could be a possibility due to Charlie Manuel.

I saw the Rangers mentioned somewhere as well. Brewers seem like a realistic option.

ACrank wrote:According to Buster Olney the front runners for Grady apparently are the Nationals (who are in on every OF rumor) the Brewers and a third team i can't remember. i can't see the Yankees being involved (they wouldn't need him in cf or lf and wouldn't trust him even as a replacement of in right) but the Phillies could be a possibility due to Charlie Manuel.

I think it was the braves... could be that part of the compensation to the Braves for Derek Lowe would be a sign and trade of Grady Sizemore... we shall see....

Here are some of the comments regarding the Derek Lowe Trade to the Indians: -Congrats Braves fans. -IT'S A MIRACLE -THERE IS A GOD! -This is a huge win for the Braves -Olney says Braves ate $10 mill. Sounds like a good deal to me. -Lowe = first ever .400 team BABIP-against -Frank (Wren) does it again. Addition by subtraction

In short.. it looks like no one is giving much credence to Derek Lowe being anything more than a salary dump / POS being shipped out of Atlanta.

Here are some of the comments regarding the Derek Lowe Trade to the Indians: -Congrats Braves fans. -IT'S A MIRACLE -THERE IS A GOD! -This is a huge win for the Braves -Olney says Braves ate $10 mill. Sounds like a good deal to me. -Lowe = first ever .400 team BABIP-against -Frank (Wren) does it again. Addition by subtraction

In short.. it looks like no one is giving much credence to Derek Lowe being anything more than a salary dump / POS being shipped out of Atlanta.

I'm getting the same reactions from my friends down here. In reality, Derek was OK until he got a DUI in June or so then went into the tank. He was acquitted of the DUI charge but never really got it going again. Lowe's tenure with the Braves were up and down. But in reality, might be useful to the Tribe. If not they can eat the $5mil. But yes for the Braves this is just a salary dump.

Magneticnorth451 wrote:Lowe's ERA was bad, but his FIP and xFIP were pretty good. Has to be some bad luck thrown into his 2011 season.

more like he would cruise for 4 innings then get hammered. I saw a lot of his games and that is what happened. Some of it could be his DUI but Atlanta had to dump him. They have a lot of young pitching talent ready for the majors.

Chris Jones is heading south in the Lowe deal....according to CBS Sports.

Edit: for what it's worth. I'm ok with this deal. It can be an upgrade but he isn't an inning eater any longer. My biggest problem with Lowe is that he is cruising along with a 2 hit shutout then with no warning there's a 5 spot up there and he isn't on the mound any longer. There just didn't seem to be any advanced warning when he was going to implode this year. He's old (38) for a pitcher but is a sinker guy so velocity may not be that big of an issue. He can have a rebound year but I'm not counting on it.

Last edited by daingean on Mon Oct 31, 2011 1:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.

daingean wrote:more like he would cruise for 4 innings then get hammered. I saw a lot of his games and that is what happened. Some of it could be his DUI but Atlanta had to dump him. They have a lot of young pitching talent ready for the majors.

Just based on some of the amplifying information available, I believe Lowe can be successful for the Indians next season:

His GB% is still high, his HR/FB rate is relatively low, and his LD% in '11 was lower than his 2010 season.

One thing of note is that his Zone Contact % is a bit above his career norm, but he's getting more swings and misses on pitches outside of the zone, which resulted in his highest K/9 since 2007.

GhostofTedCox wrote:I'd rather gamble $5 million on Lowe than $9 million on Sizemore. With the strong and deep bullpen we have, who knows, he may surprise.

Needs: Vet BOR starter ----- check.

It all depends on what solution we end up getting in CF. It is too premature for me to make that statement. Lowe may not be any better than Gomez or Huff but his presence with the young rotation may be beneficial. I personally think my Braves friends are a bit jaded by Lowe (some of it deserved but not all).

This guy is trash. Atlanta has got to be happy they found somebody to hand them 5 million for garbage they planned to leave out on the curb before spring training. He's no longer an innings eater ... he's good for about 65-70 pitches and then hits a wall and gets creamed after that point. Like clockwork. They had been trying to hook him on the Pirates for the past week I had heard, as well. They just wouldn't spend five mil for him, obviously. They, being in the NL, obviously have a strong feel for how little he's got left in the tank. I'd rather go with Jeanmar Gomez or McCallister than continually dragging in veteran trash... every year it seems we bring in guys like Austin Kearns, Chad Durbin ...vets that just stink up the roster and roadblock kids that are deserving that have more to offer. Obviously, if we can't get the Dolan's to eat a contract like Austin Kearns' for just one million, they will never eat five mil on Lowe ...so, no matter how horrid this guy pitches this season, and he will, he will be out there every five days ...no matter what. Doesn't matter if we have kids ready that are better. He WILL be in our rotation, and coming in at around a 5.5 to 6 ERA.

This is one of two seasons we have to go for a title, and we are bringing in THIS ? Lowe will be a bottom tier fifth starter. NOT someone that will help us in the least. Very very poor pickup.

I know we gave up nothing but money ...but, the amount we are paying him will mandate that he be in the rotation no matter how ineffective he will be, and he will cost us big on the competitive side of the ledger... If we were an organization that didn't look at what we paid players and just played the guys that gave us the best chance at success it wouldn't bother me this much ... but we aren't that type organization. If we pay someone what we are paying Lowe ..he has to be in the rotation no matter how badly he will be hurting us.

GhostofTedCox wrote:I'd rather gamble $5 million on Lowe than $9 million on Sizemore. With the strong and deep bullpen we have, who knows, he may surprise.

Needs: Vet BOR starter ----- check.

It all depends on what solution we end up getting in CF. It is too premature for me to make that statement. Lowe may not be any better than Gomez or Huff but his presence with the young rotation may be beneficial. I personally think my Braves friends are a bit jaded by Lowe (some of it deserved but not all).

Don't know how great a vet presence he will be ...have heard he's got some real problems with the bottle..

danh8 wrote:Don't know how great a vet presence he will be ...have heard he's got some real problems with the bottle..

Living in Atlanta, I have heard good things about his professionalism. About the bottle that stems from a DUI he was charged with but it was thrown out of court. Not saying there may not be issues but I hadn't heard any beyond that. BTW, just because the charge was thrown out doesn't mean he didn't drink and drive.

I don't have a problem with the Lowe deal. He costs the Indians just $5M next season and Chris Jones. A risk worth taking for a veteran backend starter who supposedly is great mentoring young pitchers and who has been very durable (10 straight years of 180+ IP, 32+ starts).

I prefer a guy like Gomez or Huff as the 5th starter, but to me this implies that the Indians may be using one or more of those young depth starters in a deal this offseason. I also believe that even though the Indians are paying Lowe $5 million that he will not stick long if he is crap.

"....a player entering the walk year of his contract will be highly motivated to perform at an amazing level.."

Derek Lowe, as a starter, has had two such seasons.. The 2004 season where he was pretty bad but, his dramatic contribution to the Red Sox efforts in the playoffs contributed to ending "The Curse of the Bambino". Up until that point, he was downright dreadful all season.. Then, in 2008 when he had perhaps his best season ever as a ML starting pitcher contributing to his 4 year $ 60 MM dollar deal with the Braves... So, a bit of this.. and a bit of that..

For me, $5 million (or $6 or so) would have been better spent on an OF for Duncan/Sizemore replacement. Yes, we now have an excess of starting pitching in Gomez, McAllister and Huff. However, you need one or two of them as your spare starter as Lowe at 38 is going to break-down. Plus, to use them, what is going to be the return as you need someone young with no salary due to $5 mill (most of our spare $$$) for Lowe ... which is going to cost more than an average middle-aged OF who would be an upgrade over Duncan.

I can see the advantage of having a mentor for the SP issue of Jiminez and Carmona ... however, I would take someone who just retired or should retire (like Lowe) and give then $250,000 as a special assistant coach ...

The other thing on cost ... is yes we will probably trade someone to clear 40-man spots ... yet we have said this the last few years without doing it. So, who is left off of the 40-man for Rule 5? Hopefully not much ... but it is more than Jones here. And, yes the player would probably be returned like last year. Yet, it just seems like the push that players make to grab that 25-man spot for Rule-5 to stay with the team and the team letting them push instead of developing them, just seems to derail too many players who could have been a shot at a back-up role. When has a Rule-5 player been returned that went on to do anything? Very few ... no one from the Indians ... even though both our first overall picks have been returned - J. Rodriguez and Goleski.

I actually really like the deal. You get Lowe for relatively cheap and a "prospect" who ranks no where close to elite. He's a veteran guy who can help an incredibly young staff. He had one bad year last year, sure, but overall, he's a solid #4/5 guy. A Kevin Millwood, if you will... I'll gladly take that.

i'm very cognizant that we gave up really nothing for him... but, anyone who has followed the Indians under the Dolan ownersip knows that when they are paying someone five million, they will make sure he's not only on the roster, but playing. If we are giving him five million, he will be in our rotation n mater how poorly he's performing. Everyone in baseball knew Austin Kearns had completely lost all bat speed last year and was DONE as a player, yet he remained playing, with a solid role on our team. Chad Durbin is another example. Washed up vets we bring in for "vet leadership" that can't perform near the level of kids we already have with us.

Go ask some Braves fans about how much they loved watching Lowe pitch last year ... in the AL it will get worse. An ERA approaching the 6's, vet leader or not, doesn't contribute to winning a pennant in one of the few "window" years we have to hit big. Won't do thew trick, folks.

If this is what we go for to make our move for the pennant, we'll never ever see one.

A.Zajac wrote:I actually really like the deal. You get Lowe for relatively cheap and a "prospect" who ranks no where close to elite. He's a veteran guy who can help an incredibly young staff. He had one bad year last year, sure, but overall, he's a solid #4/5 guy. A Kevin Millwood, if you will... I'll gladly take that.

Ubaldo, Masterson, Carmona, Lowe, Tomlin... yes, please.

Here is the thing .... Lowe born in 73, Millwood in 74. Millwood signed a minor league FA invite contract last year with NY before going to Boston and then Colorado after going 4-16 and 5.1 ERA the prior year. Yes, being in Cleveland, we have to entice veterans to come here as Millwood and Colon were lured by NY after we looked at them. But, giving $5 million for someone at the end of his career and is rapidly regressing and saying that is a Millwood type deal? Maybe 4 years ago....

I just think that you could have gotten a few vet pitchers after the rush of FA is done. Then give them $3-5 million incentive ladden deals with opt outs and would have had a competition instead of a guarunteed spot. I like what Gomez and McAllister have ... just would have liked there to be competition with a vet or two.

I also would have liked to use $ for an outfielder than give up on one of Gomez or McAllister if not both. Huff has no value. Then our starters below them are kind of thin with White and Pom gone. So who is around to replace Lowe if he bombs or gets injured/worndown? Barnes (when he recovers), Rondon (yet he may bullpen guy as he needs to build up his arm), McFarland ... rest are big question marks in Klubler (consistency), Adams (pen or starter), Packer, Soto (too finese?).... There is also a gap in our starters until our new guys like Howard, Sterling, Araujo, Perez, Sisco, ... are ready in 3-4 years. Thus,there is some excess but not much as you want a few for injuries each year when guys like De La Cruz are starting to transition to the bullpen. Luckily Carmona, Masterson, Jiminez, Tomlin will be fixtures for 3-4 years.

A.Zajac wrote:Let me ask some of you this, who in free agency would you have wanted to get instead (who's realistic)? Paul Maholm, Kuroda, Kazmir, Maine, Harden, Harang..?

I don't think the issue was who we rather have as an upgrade in FAs but rather the upgrade in OF is more pressing with Sizemore cut than an upgrade over Huff, Gomez, or McAllister which I don't see in Lowe being that great. I know Tony says expect a trade ... but not holding my breath.

Yes, the upgrade in the OF is more pressing, but that doesn't mean you pass up a chance like this.

And yes, i expect Lowe to be trotted out regularly in the beginning of the season, but the fact that he is in the last year of his contract (i believe this to be true) means i am not that concerned about the Indians continuing to trot him out there if he is not effective. i mean if it goes to the all star break, cutting him lose means 2.5 million dollars might have to be swallowed. i doubt the Indians would have a problem with that, and i also think the current front office could find a taker for him (they found one for Orlando Cabrera last year).

JP_Frost wrote:If you look beyond his ERA you'll see that he wasn't so bad. I think you jump to a lot of quick conclusions. Let's see what happens before we make judgements.

As for the deal, can't say I hate it. I think it's a solid pick up. Probably better than a few FA pitchers we might've targeted.

Exactly. He had solid FIP and xFIP. His K-Rate went up, his groundball rate went up, and his HR-rate down. Only negative was really his walk rate jumping up. He's probably got one more year in him. Personally like the deal. don't love it, but a decent #3/4 (depending where Carmona slides...if he's still here).

Personally not sold on Tomlin as I've stated before. Really wonder if the Tribe isn't either. Had 2 great months then fell off. Gets you innings, but that HR-rate was ugly. League may have just caught up to him. Doesn't walk guys though so can still be a #5 I guess.