Creating a new post on request because the other one was way too long and it was a pain in the ass even for me to update.

So far this has been pretty accurate.

Right now there is a ton of enthusiasm calling for a pump back to old highs.

I have to emphasize that although that is absolutely possible, we are in a different place in the overall market cycle than we were on the dumps to $1800, $2900, and $5500 on the way up to the $19,000 all-time high.

We have been amidst heavy selling pressure for approaching 60 days and have dumped from $20,000 to $5,800

This is the second longest correction in BTC's history and the second biggest in magnitude.

People have developed very bad habits and a very smug sense of self-satisfaction amidst the perpetual bull run.

Longs at an all-time high. People have confused this situation with previous dumps on the bull run. Even long-term and very strong traders are confusing this situation.

The SEC and CFTC have also yet to deal with:

1. Unregulated exchanges
2. ICOs
3. Tether and Mount Finex

1 & 2 are issues Giancarlo and Clayton discussed explicitly during their testimony. Tether was a topic that they _all_ avoided, even while touching _every_ other hot topic in crypto.

That's because the CFTC still has open subpoenas with Finex and Tether.

I'm still of the opinion that a big move downwards that targets long term hodlers and miners is coming before Lightning Network launches.

Institutions want ALL of the underwriting coins of the world's new central banking system.

They will just catch you offguard when it comes, as you gather to pray to the $30,000 moon like you are about to at $9,300.

==
Stop the Organ Harvesting Persecution of Falun Gong Practitioners by the Chinese Communist Party

Kommentar:
Thank you guys for reading my crazy talk. I'd be thrilled to see the bull pump through $10,000 and continue to go up. It would certainly make my spot holdings worth more money, so I wouldn't complain.

On the other hand, I think that's not going to happen until real pain has come to long traders.

If you've benefited from any of my posts along the way, please read and sign the petition to end the organ harvesting of Falun Gong practitioners by the CCP at the end of my post.

If you'd be so kind to spread it around on Twitter and other social media, that would serve to help the situation greatly.

Kommentar:
I had been looking for a while for a secondary tests of the lows, or even any pattern resembling Wyckoff accumulation, but it hasn't manifested. It occurred to me that this pattern does, however, look a lot like re-distribution during mark down.

Right now in the current situation, I believe the market maker has evidenced he's short from 8800-8900 after yesterday's double top, and is long from 8100 after the bounce.

The market maker will move price into profit away from his position. Meaning, if he was short from 8800 and long from 8100, if we approach 8800+ again we are going over $9,000 because he has obviously scalped his short position at 8300 and has maintained his long position.

If the rejection around 8600-8700 continues, then we are for sure going to break the current bullish trend that's within the overall bearish trend and resume liquidating long traders.

Right now with the way it's playing out, the hot zone I'm looking for is $9,200-9,300 taking out all the stops over $9,000 before resuming major corrective cycle.

Kommentar:
I've found when the morons come out to flame in this post it's at times when the market appears bullish and their self entitlement to free moon-money is triggered and their spectrum is flaring at an all-time high.

Then price drops and you don't hear from them again.

Bitcoin maximalists, hodlers, miners, and all the traders who have developed very dangerous habits are starting to get desperate.

Pleading and negotiating is starting internally.

Lower highs and bad volume = moon, right?

Kommentar:
So, this one is really simple.

I remember when we were back at $3,600ish after the $4,900-$2,900 China FUD correction and Goldbug1 referred to this pattern as "the most important trading pattern to learn".

Kommentar:
I haven't cared what any of you have thought of me since I posted this.

Unsurprisingly, during this correction, when the bull trap has been prime is when the coyotes posing as wolves have come out of their caves to yip at my feet.

I still don't care what anyone thinks. Reputation and fame are worthless.

The situation is very binary.

1. This is start of new major bull run and this is meager correction from $11.7
2. Four digit Bitcoin becomes a staple part of your 2018 diet

Be careful which barking dog you listen to, including this one.

It's your risk, your reward, right?

Kommentar:
Daily shows a severe rejection of the downtrend line. This will shortly become BTC's 90th "Inverse Cup and Handle! Target: $18,000" in the last month.

2 hours to daily close and the highest swap volume bar by far.

Volume has been nuts in the last week or two with 530,000,000 contracts of open interest on perpetual swap, yet price can't break $11,700.

If Ripple were to show this kind of price action, what would you think of its direction?

Is Bitcoin a special snowflake that only goes ub, or is it perhaps the case that market cycles apply even to crypto?

$10,000+, increasing volume without corresponding moon, and the SEC and CFTC still have not dealt with ICOs or Tether/Finex.

And yet, everyone is complacent and comfortable.

Kommentar:

I call this piece "An epitaph for slaughtered pigs"

Kommentar:
Bitcoin isn't a special snowflake. It was a never-short coin because it was on a colossal bull run.

Now it's on a colossal bear run. Shorting is trading in the right direction until proven otherwise, and I hate to break it to moonbois, but you aren't seeing "$30k-Bai-May" when you're on the wrong side of a bump and run.

Short it on Bitmex and save on fees with this referral link. Don't rekt yourself with leverage. Trade smart and follow hedging principles.

I actually really enjoyed the last month and a half of "bull run". It wasn't a bull run though. It was just a divergence on the selling side of the market cycle.

Twitter and the TradingView top account shills and all the paid minions in the comment threads, your pump and dump groups, and everything else you pursue is telling you institutions institutions adoption regulation mainstream!

After a run like we just had, before $50,000 comes, whales and institutions need to obtain sufficient supply for their campaign.

There's ~17M Bitcoins in actual circulation. Think about how many that really is. Imagine having merely 25,000 BTC being dumped on Coinbase or Bitstamp?

Say you're one of the largest hedges or traders in literally the entire world and you want to obtain even 10 or 15% of supply so that you have a fundamental stake in the future and can restrict supply when you want the price to go up and suppress price with your supply when you want the price to go down.

You have to obtain in the range of 1.5-2.5 _million_ BTC. Someone has to sell them to you.

The target is the retail traders who bought at 12k+ early on. Most are eliminated. Now the targets are those who bought at 9k+.

The final target is small miners and early adopters. When they move their wallets to exchanges and market dump at the bottom, the reversal is here.

Spam at me all you want, but what happened to the Bitcoin bull?

You're told to BUY and HODL by the machine and the narrative, but does the position _actually_ call for that?

Your money. Your risk. Your reward.

Right now this market trades like it's being sold off by large players who have inside knowledge of when the SEC sweep on scamcoins and ICOs is coming.

Kommentar:
I've noticed people are very willing to be completely dismissive and even totally condescending when the price is going up about the realities of market cycle patterns like the one described in this post when Bitcoin was still 5 figures.

Well, that's why you buy the top and hodl for years to get your money back.

Your seller thanks you for your most generous donation. He'll also enjoy selling the coins back to you above what you originally paid for them when you FOMO after supply is accumulated and markup begins.

Kommentar:

Kommentar:
An absolutely plausible scenario here as well is a BTC pump that is accompanied by an altcoin red massacre.

That being said, retail is always long and there's an _awful_ lot to gain by smarter money being short in this delirious moonboi environment.

Do you know who trading is easy for?

Only the wallets that have deep supply.

For the rest of us, we are their customers and the onus is on _you_ to recognize, play against, and capitalize on that fundamental conflict of interest.

About your chart - bitcoin have health correction to around 0.236-0.382 fib. And 4000 is your dream.
Now we are in penate from global view and this is pattern for continuation the trend (bullish trend).

Also, you forget that the long correction in 2015 had fundamental reasons - MtGOX. Now these reasons are not present. And there are many positive signs on the part of regulators and the government. You can say that tomorrow the US will bans Teter or something else. With the same probability, I can say that the US will allow bitcoin ETF on the next week/month etc.

@artgen567, The SEC, CFTC, and DOJ in the United States as well as the regulatory bodies in Canada, the UK, Australia, and a variety of other countries are all going to show their hand very shortly. One of the bigger things that is extremely likely to happen is Ethereum itself will be classified as a security, with all the tokens issued on it being implicated.

The market will be affected dramatically by design.

The difference between now and 2015 is simply that the incumbent bounce will be much faster than it was then.

Also, my dream of $4,000? Not sure all of you realize I actually own crypto and I hardly hate my life when my money is worth more money.

@RiversAndMountains, Ethereum and Bitcoin is different things. If ETH will going to regulate - this is only about ETH and ERC-20 based tokens. Because of this Tron lounch Main net and EOS release native tokens till the end of may / start of june. They need to break away from ETH also because of regulators. So if ETH going under regulations - BTC and TOP tokens will be ok.