Warringah

Sydney North Shore

Very Safe Liberal 15.3%

MP

Tony Abbott (LIB) since a March 1994 by-election. Former Prime Minister.

Profile

Warringah is an affluent electorate covering 68 sq.km in Sydney's north shore and lower northern beaches, covering suburbs on both sides of Middle Harbour around the Spit Bridge. It includes Middle Head and the Mosman Council area, North Head and the Manly Council area, plus parts of Warringah and North Sydney Councils. (Map)

Redistribution

Minor changes only, losing parts of Cremorne north of Military Road and west of Macpherson Street to North Sydney. The Liberal two-party preferred margin nudges down a point from 15.4% to an estimated 15.3%.

Background

Warringah was first contested at the 1922 election and has always been a safe conservative seat. Former members including Sir Percy Spender (1937-51), Edward St John (1966-69) and Michael Mackellar (1969-94).

St John's time as member for Warringah was brief but eventful, managing to embarrass both Liberal Prime Ministers under whom he served. He used his maiden speech to attack the Holt government over its handling of the Voyager disaster, and later he attacked John Gorton over his behaviour in public. St John was suspended from the parliamentary Liberal Party over his attack on Gorton and was defeated at the 1969 election.

Tony Abbott was first elected at a 1994 by-election and has retained this seat with ease at elections since, except at the 2001 election when he was challenged by former state Independent MP for Manly Dr Peter Macdonald. Macdonald had a reasonable chance of creating an upset, and reduced Abbott's margin substantially, but his attempt to harness local issues was swamped by the higher prominence of foreign affairs in the aftermath of the Tampa incident and September 11 terrorist attacks.

Past Election Results

Year

Winning Party

1972

LIB

1974

LIB

1975

LIB

1977

LIB

1980

LIB

1983

LIB

1984

LIB

1987

LIB

1990

LIB

1993

LIB

1994By

LIB

1996

LIB

1998

LIB

2001

LIB

2004

LIB

2007

LIB

2010

LIB

2013

LIB

Coloured tab indicates seat won by a party forming government

Past First Preference Votes

The announcement that former Australian Idol host, James Mathison, was entering the race for Warringah created some media excitement in a quiet and predictable election campaign. Would he be able to harness 'liberal' voters in opposition to the conservative Abbott? Would he be able to tap into youth disengagement with politics?

The graph below shows how difficult the task is for anyone else other than an official Liberal candidate to win Warringah. Since 1983, the Liberal first preference vote has never dropped below 50%. Unless Mathison or any other candidate has a strategy to take votes from the Liberal Party rather than Labor and the Greens, then any challenge to the Liberal grip on Warringah is doomed to fail. Former state Independent MP for Manly, Dr Peter Macdonald, contested Manly in 2001, but only ate into the Labor and minor party vote, though his campaign was disrupted by the heightened emphasis on immigration and security after the Tampa incident and the September 11 terrorist attacks.

Comparison between an anti-Abbott campaign and the contest in the Victorian seat of Indi in 2013 are not relevant. First, Indi is a rural electorate with a strong local media where knowledge of the candidates is much higher than in an urban seat like Warringah. Second, Independent Cathy McGowan had been campaigning for months, was a very well known local, and tapped into strong networks of community groups, where there has been no long term campaign in Warringah. Finally, the Liberal first preference vote in Indi had previously fallen below 50% when the National Party nominated, and this history of competition for the conservative vote has no similar history in Warringah.

Changing Boundaries

Most of the change in area shown in the map below flows from a change to using the mid-point of the harbour in defining electoral boundaries.

2016 Ballot Paper (10 Candidates)

Candidate Name

Party

WOODWARD Andrew

Labor

ROWLAND Marie

Nick Xenophon Team

SCIFO June

Christian Democratic Party (Fred Nile Group)

GIORDANO Marc

Science Party

ABBOTT Tony

Liberal

CAPLICE Shea

The Arts Party

MATHISON James

Independent

WILLIAMS ROLDAN Clara

The Greens

BARROW David

Independent

BACKHOUSE Tony

Independent

Candidates

Andrew Woodward

Labor

Woodward grew up and spent most of his life on Sydney's northern beaches. He spent over twenty five years in the corporate world and holds a Master of Business and Technology from the University of New South Wales (UNSW) and is currently undertaking a Master of Environmental Management at UNSW. He is experienced in the corporate world, starting as a journalist in Sydney, working in regional Australia and Canberra before taking on senior roles in marketing, corporate affairs and management consulting in Australia and overseas. Woodward states that he played a key role in Sydney's successful bid and the staging of the 2000 Olympic and Paralympic Games, and he has held roles with the Australian Tourist Commission and Visa Inc, having lived in San Francisco for three years where he was Visa's global head of brand and sponsorship communications. After having trained with Al Gore, former US Vice President, Woodward was inspired by Gore to get involved in climate change and now runs a Manly-based business, Climate Communication, that helps organisations navigate climate change.

Marie Rowland

Nick Xenophon Team

Rowland was born in the UK of Sri Lankan/English heritage and lived in New Zealand before settling in Australia. She completed a Bachelor of Arts at the University of Melbourne and then went on to study fashion, opening her own design and manufacturing studio at the age of 20. By 21 she had her own shopfront which she successfully ran for 6 years in the iconic fashion precinct of Richmond, Victoria. Moving to Sydney, she worked at Fairfax Media, followed by the Sydney Cove Authority publicising the iconic Rocks area. Rowland then opened her own PR, marketing and advertising agency, specialising in the lifestyle, arts and fashion industries. Seeking more meaningful work, Rowland received post-graduate qualifications in psychology and counselling and opened her own practice in 2008.

Tony Abbott

Liberal

58 year-old Abbott was first elected at a 1994 by-election to replace Michael Mackellar, on the same day as Bronwyn Bishop was elected for neighbouring Mackellar. A former right-wing student activist, seminarian and journalist, he later worked as John Hewson's press secretary, and then director of Australians for a Constitutional Monarchy. He was appointed to the ministry following the 1998 election as Minister for Employment Services with responsibility for 'work for the dole' and making the privatisation of employment services work. He rose to the Cabinet portfolio of Employment and Workplace Relations in the December 2000 re-shuffle. Abbott was appointed to the politically charged Health portfolio in the September 2003 cabinet re-shuffle. This was to cause him problems when his strong Catholic views on abortion and reproductive technology came into conflict with his parliamentary colleagues in debates on RU486 and stem-cell research. In both debates, his strong advocacy of deeply held personal opinions probably solidified support for those opposing his position. In the 2007 election campaign he famously turned up late for a debate with Labor's Shadow Health spokeswoman Nicola Roxon. After the 2007 election Abbott served in several relatively low profile portfolios before announcing a challenge to Malcolm Turnbull's leadership in late 2009. Abbott was expected to be a stalking horse for Joe Hockey, stating he would pull out of the contest if the proposed deal on the government's CPRS legislation was abandoned. In the end Hockey wouldn't back down on CPRS and Abbott surprisingly went on to win the election by one vote. Abbott immediately abandoned the CPRS deal, allowing him to re-unify the party room and shore up Liberal Party support. By June 2010, the Labor Party was so concerned by the poll turnaround that Kevin Rudd was replaced as Prime Minister by Julia Gillard. Abbott's strong campaigning deprived the Gillard government of its majority, and his continued attacks on the government undermined Labor's support, bringing him the scalp of another Labor Prime Minister in 2013 when continued bad polling undermined Julia Gillard's leadership of the government. Abbott's skills as opposition leader did not translate well to being Prime Minister, and after one failed spill motion in February 2015, he was defeated by Malcolm Turnbull at a second challenge in September 2015.

Shea Caplice

The Arts Party

Caplice is a highly respected Midwife who is passionate about the arts. Art, music, theatre, dance is food for her soul. Caplice has lived in the electorate all her life and has seen the importance of arts and culture in building community. She believes the arts creates the balance from which we can build business, infrastructure and communities without losing our heart.

James Mathison

Clara Williams Roldan

The Greens

Williams-Roldan was born in Manly and studied law at the University of Sydney and has worked within peak bodies like the Human Rights Commission, the United Nations Environment Project, and the Indigenous education Aurora Project. She has also worked in remote Northern Territory Indigenous communities and studied at universities in Spain and Sweden. She was the Green candidate in Manly at the 2015 NSW election and states that like the local fairy penguins, she always comes backs to Manly.

David Barrow

Independent

Barrow is campaigning from Victoria as an fly-in-fly-out candidate. He holds a Juris Doctor law degree from RMIT University; a B.Com honours degree in accounting and finance, B.A. honours in philosophy, and a B.Litt in English literature at the University of Melbourne. He is a CPA Accountant who runs a small business arranging testamentary trusts for willmakers. Barrow was a self-represented party in Andrew Bolt litigation which ran for 4 years until it was settled when an application for special leave to appeal was before the High Court. Barrow previously contested the Victorian seat of La Trobe in 2010 as a Family First candidate before he was disendorsed after stating that families must include gays and lesbians for equality. This came after the printing of ballot papers so he remained listed as a Family First candidate, campaigned as an Independent but also probed becoming an Australian Sex Party candidate.