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A Mid-Season Patriots Review

A bye week after eight games splits the NFL season
into two distinct halves, much like halftime in a football game.Like halftime, a mid-season bye week provides
a break in the action to regroup and evaluate your efforts from the first
half.With the Patriots now coming of
their mid-season bye week, it also provides an opportunity to reassess
expectations for the remainder of the season.

The first half was generally a disappointment to
Patriot fans, who had visions of an undefeated season prior to the season. These hopes were quickly dashed in the season
opener against Kansas City, and took a further hit with another home loss to
the Panthers in Week 4. If not for a
late comeback against the Texans in Week 3, the Patriots very easily could have
gotten off to a 1-3 start, with three losses at home. The defense was in shambles, allowing big
play after big play. To their credit,
the Patriots kept it together and reeled off four straight wins to close out
the first half at 6-2.

While it has not been unusual for the Patriots to get
off to slow starts as they figure out their team, the issues are usually worked
out well before the midway point of the season.
One does not get that impression with this year’s team, causing real
concern among Patriot fans. Let’s now
assess what we have seen so far from the team, and what we can expect to see in
the second half.

Offense

The offense was the savior of the team in the first
four games of the season, outscoring the Saints and staging the late comeback
against the Texans to keep the team record even at 2-2. They finished the first half ranked first in
total yards and passing yards, third in third down efficiency, and seventh in
points. The last stat isn’t bad, but it
is below the expectations of the usually high-powered offense.

The offense has been trending downward despite the
four game winning streak. After putting
up 27, 36, 36 and 30 points in the first four games, the Patriots have not
scored more than 24 points in their last four games (19, 24, 23 and 21). While the team has moved the ball effectively
between the 20s, they have recently had issues scoring in the red zone,
settling for field goals instead of touchdowns.

Tom Brady, who surprisingly turned 40 earlier this
year, has been generally stellar but has had uncharacteristic bouts of
inaccuracy. Some of these can be
attributed to working with new receivers, to a left shoulder injury, and to
offensive line issues. The offensive
line has not kept the pressure off Brady, and must do a better job in the second
half of the season to keep Brian Hoyer on the sidelines.

The rushing attack has been more of a focus in the
past few games, utilizing a rejuvenated Dion Lewis as the primary back with
Mike Gillislee also getting significant playing time. Whether this has been a means to offset the
opponent’s pass rush, or an effort to control the clock and keep the defense
off the field, it has resulted in a more balanced attack. It is expected this trend will continue into
the second half, especially as the weather gets colder in the northeast.

The receiving corps has been a disappointment to this
point. Rob Gronkowski has not been able
to fill the void created by the preseason loss of Julian Edelman. Danny Amendola has picked up some of the
slack, but he has a reputation of being fragile and is always a hit away from
missing extended time due to injury.
Chris Hogan showed signs of becoming Brady’s go-to guy, but a hit to the
shoulder late in the Charger game could affect his availability for the next
two key games against the Broncos in Denver and the Raiders in Mexico
City. Brandin Cooks and the remainder of
the receiver corps will need to step up to offset the loss of Hogan and take
the pressure off Amendola.

Defense

By all measures, the defense performed far better in
the last four games then they did in the first four games. They held opponents
to 14, 17, 7 and 13 points in that stretch, yet still rank last in the NFL in
total yards allowed and passing yards allowed, and are tied for 16th
in points allowed. That is an indication
of how putrid the defense was in the first four games. But unlike the offense, the defense is
trending in the right direction and, while not dominant, are showing signs of
respectability.

The turnaround in the defense has coincided with the
absence of cornerback Stephon Gilmore, who reportedly sustained a concussion in
practice and has been out for the past three games. Coincidence?
This author does not think so.
Johnson Bademosi and Jonathan Jones have moved up from special teams and
played well in the absence of Gilmore and Eric Rowe, who has also missed
significant time due to injury. Malcolm
Butler appears to have gotten over his early season disappointment at not signing
a big contract and has been solid in recent games. The hope is both Gilmore and Rowe return to
form and team with Butler, Bademosi and Jones to turn the defensive backfield
from a glaring weakness into a team strength.

The front seven has been a mixed bag all season. With the exception of rookie lineman Deitrich
Wise, the defensive front has been unable to apply pressure to opposing
quarterbacks. The linebackers have also
had issues with providing back-side coverage on misdirection plays that have
led to big gains by opponents in the run game and screen passes. Mistakes such as these are caused by lack of discipline
rather than talent, and are usually correctable. The recent acquisition of Ricky Jean Francois
and return of veteran linebacker David Harris should help offset the loss of
Don’t’a Hightower, but the front seven needs to play mistake-free to offset the
lack of a playmaker.

Special Teams

The Patriots are playing a dangerous game with their
kick and punt returners. Dion Lewis and
Danny Amendola have been the primary returners at each respective position. The use of key offensive starters in the
return game is always risky, and the risk is escalated further with their
respective history of injuries. The
offense cannot afford to lose either of them.

Kicker Stephen Gostkowski appeared to have corrected
some of his problems from last season converting field goals, but then missed
two makeable kicks against the Chargers.
These misses highlighted the team’s struggles to score touchdowns in the
red zone, and turned what should have been an easy victory into a contest that
was not locked down until the final play of the game. Ryan Allen has been stellar in the punting
game, deftly pinning opponents inside the 20 when punting from around
mid-field.

Coaching

The coaching staff has had their work cut out for them
since the preseason. Defensive
coordinator Matt Patricia has had to start from scratch and simplify a defense
that could not stop a nose bleed early in the season. The poor play of the defense was unexpected
given the majority of players returning from the previous season. More work is needed from this side of the
ball before anyone can have serious thoughts of repeating as Super Bowl
Champions.

Offensive Coordinator Josh McDaniels has had to
reconfigure his game plan due to the preseason losses of Edelman and Malcolm Mitchell.
Mitchell was expected to play a greater
role in the passing game after finishing strong in his rookie season last
year. Injuries to Gronkowski and
Amendola further hampered the passing game in the first half of the season. The focus on the running game should help to open
up the passing game and keep the opposing pass rush in check.

Second Half Preview

The second half of the season starts with a brutal
road trip to play the Broncos in Denver and the Raiders in Mexico City, before
returning to Foxborough to face the Dolphins.
Denver has always been a house of horrors for Brady and the Pats. Old friend Aqib Talib matches up well with
Gronkowski, and Von Miller is still a formidable pass rusher. The Raiders have their own beast of a pass
rusher in Khalil Mack, who can single handedly take over a game on the
defensive end. The Raiders could be
looking to resurrect their disappointing season with a convincing win against
the defending champs.

Both venues are high altitude sites that could present
issues for a team, particularly offensive and defensive linemen, unaccustomed
to playing in the thinner air. The
Patriots will remain in Colorado between games to try to acclimate to the
higher elevations.

The Patriots then return home to face the Dolphins for
the first of three straight games against AFC East rivals. After the Dolphins game, the Patriots go back
out on the road for three more games against the Bills, a return match against
the Dolphins in Miami, and end the trip with a visit to Pittsburgh. The Patriots end the season with two more AFC
East games at home against the Bills and Jets.

The Steelers game not only has the potential to be a
preview of the AFC Championship Game, it could decide which teams receives byes
in the first round of the playoffs.
Currently the Patriots and Steelers sit atop the AFC with 6-2 records,
with Kansas City close behind at 6-3.
Kansas City holds the tie-breaker over the Patriots by virtue of their
opening night win in Foxborough, however, the Steelers hold the tie-breaker
over Kansas City after beating the Chiefs in Week 6. A Patriot win over the Steelers is even more
critical in the event the three teams end the season in a three-way tie. If that should happen, the head-to-head
tiebreaker is negated in favor of best won-lost percentage in the division. A loss to the Steelers could cost the Patriots
a bye and land them in the Divisional Round.

Outlook

The path to the AFC East Championship, a perpetual
foregone conclusion, is being contested for the first time in nearly a
decade. The Bills are much improved, especially
on defense. Buffalo faces a tough schedule
in the second half, with games against New Orleans, the L.A. Chargers, Kansas
City and two with the Patriots. Barring
a collapse by the offense, a relapse of the defense, or an injury to Brady, the
Patriots should have no problem taking the East. But unless both sides of the ball step up their
games in the second half, a trip to a seventh straight AFC Championship game
will be in jeopardy.

Follow Bill on Twitter @BTravers_BSoT.

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