Washington limits opponents to red zone touchdowns on just 57.1 percent of their opportunities. Washington State isn’t nearly as effective (68.8).

Bottom line:

The bigger the game, the more situational football matters:

Turnover margin, forcing punts and preventing touchdowns.

Washington is better at each.

Washington wins … but not by much.

Last week: 2-4Season: 33-38-4Five-star special: 7-5

All picks against the spread. Lines taken from vegasinsider.com (opening lines used)

Arizona State (minus-6) at Arizona (Friday): The line is down to ASU -3 and needs to keep falling to find the right spot. Stage is set for floundering Arizona to rise up and ruin the Sun Devils’ season. Pick: Arizona.

Washington (minus-6) at Washington State (Friday): Head says Huskies will have it in hand midway through the fourth quarter. Gut says it will come down to a defensive stand. Going with the gut. Luke Falk won’t be easily defeated. Pick: Washington State.

UCLA (minus-4) at Cal: Ignominious stat of the year, in case you missed it earlier in the week on the Hotline: UCLA’s rushing offense is No. 127 nationally. Cal’s rushing defense is No. 127 nationally. Football gods, have mercy on us. Pick: Cal.

Rice (plus-33) at Stanford: I understand the reason: Stanford has a hole in the schedule on the final weekend in even years and asked Rice to move the Week Two date to Thanksgiving Saturday. But that doesn’t make me any more interested. What. A. Dud. Pick: Stanford.

Notre Dame (plus-16.5) at USC: The Forfeiture Bowl. It’s also USC’s sizzling offense against Notre Dame’s vulnerable defense, which make it feel like the Blowout Bowl. Pick: USC.

Oregon (minus-3) at Oregon State: Beavers grab a pregame victory with reduction in point spread compared to the previous five years (Oregon by 27, 9, 23, 18 and 35). Have to think OSU believes it can win deep in its soul, and that’s the first step. Pick: Oregon State.

Utah (plus-12) at Colorado: Keep thinking the Buffs will stumble, that they cannot possibly be this good. But maybe they are. Also: No way the Utes have recovered from last week’s body blow. They would ramp it up for BYU, but not for CU. Pick: Colorado.

Five-star special: Arizona. In Tempe, the Territorial Cup might not be close; ASU has the better roster. But the Devils been dreadful on the road, and the Wildcats usually have one big home win in them each season. They are due in ’16.

Jon Wilner has been covering college sports for decades and is an AP top-25 football and basketball voter as well as a Heisman Trophy voter. He was named Beat Writer of the Year in 2013 by the Football Writers Association of America for his coverage of the Pac-12, won first place for feature writing in 2016 in the Associated Press Sports Editors writing contest and is a five-time APSE honoree.

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