Your dislike of Football Outsiders is well documented, but what is your beef with this breakdown of the Falcons roster?

I don't agree with everything they have but not to any degree that would prompt a Tina Fay GIF.

Ryan has a noodle arm, Quizz excels at pass blocking? Maybe. Sam baker is listed as 'good' but that's only based on last year when he was healthy and in a contract year. I think Coffman is better then JAG, Id say average.. and I would list Kroy as 'adequate'. Im a big Spoon fan, but he is a 'star' and Ryan is 'good'? And they list D Davis as JAG when it should be 'jury is still out' since he never had any legitimate playing time.

Spoon is one of the best 4-3 OLBs in the NFL. He had a bit of a down year, but so did most of our defense. I do have issues with Spoon, but my issues aside, he's still one of the best in his position.

BUt he ranks better then Ryan? That's what I'm talking about. I have no issues with Roddy, Tony or Julio being ranked there, but to suggest that Spoon>Ryan or that Ryan=Biermann, that's out of control nerd-speak. Not hating on Spoon, just can;t buy into thier 'metrics', which is why I usually roll my eyes or mock these kind of junk-stat manipulations

Football Nerdsiders ranks as 'just a blog' , not 'elite' or even 'good'

BUt he ranks better then Ryan? That's what I'm talking about. I have no issues with Roddy, Tony or Julio being ranked there, but to suggest that Spoon>Ryan or that Ryan=Biermann, that's out of control nerd-speak.

Look, I have no problem when other people don't consider Ryan to be all that great. I personally think he's closer to 5 than 15 when you're ranking QBs but others may see it differently. Because the reality is that the gap between those that you'd put 5 or 15 isn't that huge. So if Ryan is just "good" while Flacco is a "star" then so be it. Flacco's got a better playoff record and has just gotten him some hardware, so it would be bold for someone to put them on the same plane. I mean, a few months back you would have been arguing for that it would seem: viewtopic.php?f=2&t=17609

Davis IS just a guy. What is the jury still out on? Whether he can be a legit backup QB in the NFL. Look, maybe Davis beats the odds and becomes a real player at this level, but if that is the case that makes him basically like a once in a decade player like Tom Brady or Tony Romo. But the reality is that he probably at best is going to be Anthony Wright, a guy good enough to stick around as a backup, win a couple of games, but mostly be a clipboard holder at the NFL level. And that's if he's lucky.

Look, I'll admit that I was wrong in my initial assessment that Davis was a marginal QB prospect, but I don't want people to get carried away with their hype for him. Davis has a LONG WAY to go before he's a competent starting QB, which he is going to have to be if he's going to be any team's long-term option as a No. 2. He played well last summer, showing a nice feel and athleticism. But if he's going to get out there against teams like Seattle and Washington, he's got to get a lot better.

Kroy is more than adequate. But he's at least borderline good/adequate that their ranking him on the good side shouldn't bother you too much.

Coffman has 4 catches in 4 seasons in the NFL. Do you know how many TEs that have been in the league that long and had such little production and weren't long snappers? Not many.

I liked Coffman a ton coming out of Mizzou in 2009. I had him in my top 30 prospects that year. Part of his struggles have been transitioning to an inline of Y tight end after basically being a slot receiver at Mizzou. Not an easy transition, as Martin Rucker has struggled sticking before him, and Michael Egnew was infamous on Hard Knocks last summer. But while I liked Coffman because i loved his hands and ability to make grabs in traffic, the fact that he's slow and lacks quickness has hindered him because he doesn't create separation. Neither does Tony Gonzalez, but Gonzo runs extremely polished routes and has earned his reputation as money in traffic over the course of 16 years. It will take quite a bit for Ryan to trust throwing to smaller windows with Coffman. That's one of the reasons why Douglas has yet to take off in this off-season because Ryan is reluctant to pull the trigger in tight windows because guess what?...he knows his arm strength limitations. If you're going to argue that there was any "genius" behind the Julio trade, it would be that: getting a big 6-3 target that goes and gets the ball. It's why it would be smart for the Falcons to nab someone like Eifert in this year's draft because he has similar traits. Now some of those issues are mitigated if you get Coffman in space as an H-back.

And because Coffman is a very limited blocker, he doesn't play because if you're not a starting TE the most likely scenario in which you will see the field is as a run blocker even if you're just an H-back. Falcons use 2 TEs on about 30% of run plays last year, while only about 16% of pass plays. It's the same thing with a backup S, you're only going to play in dime packages (i.e. passing plays), so if you're a run defender like Jimmy Williams, you're rarely going to get opportunities to play (see Antoine Harris in 2007).

So understanding this, even if Coffman does manage to make the roster, who impactful is he going to be in the starting lineup? Douglas barely gets targets and he runs a 4.4 and is quick as hell. Coffman runs a 4.85. Aren't we basically talking at best we're hoping for is Brian Finneran at the end where he's really only 10-20 catches a year.

I know we all love Finn, but I think most would agree he was Just A Guy at the end.

BUt he ranks better then Ryan? That's what I'm talking about. I have no issues with Roddy, Tony or Julio being ranked there, but to suggest that Spoon>Ryan or that Ryan=Biermann, that's out of control nerd-speak.

yes, a year DOES make a difference. In June of 2012, Matt Ryan pussied out on his last playoff game, and had gone 0-3 in the playoffs, regressing. Now? He got a playoff win and was 10 yards, a separated shoulder and fumbled snap away from the Superbowl. So, to me, that is 'progress'. He went from 'adequate' to 'good' IMO> Only Nerfside Footballers calls him 'good' for both seasons, and still keeps up with the canard that Ryan hasd a 'weak arm', when it has been demonstratively proven false. That is, unless you factor in a new '4 letter acronymic measurement'

"Davis IS just a guy". Kinda like Sid, huh? As you mentioned ,he didn't shine on ST, and he was surpassed on the roster by two guys who were 'better', thus not getting any playing time, right? But is he 'JAG'? No. And we dont know about Davis, because he was never really given a chance to show exactly what he is capable of, which is the very definition of 'jury is out'. But these mathematical clowns have that figured out after almost 2 complete games in preseason with scrubs.

I may accept thier JAG judgment on Coffman. I think of him as adequate, because they aren't asking him to do much, and when he does get in there, he seems to at least contribute once in awhile, rather then say, Kerry Miers.

Fun Gus, I don't think that the nerdsiders are comparing Spoon to Ryan. I think that they're comparing Spoon to other OLBs, and Ryan to other QBs. They have Ryan listed in the, "good," category, which a lot of people on this site would seem to agree with. They don't consider Ryan to be on the same playing field as Tom Brady, Drew Brees, etc. They have Spoon listed as a, "Star," at his position, and again, he is one of the best 4-3 OLBs in the NFL. Hard to argue that he is a star at his position.

The only rankings which I think may be seriously off is having Babs listed as a star, and Davis not being, "Jury's out." I would list Babs as Adequate to Good, based on the past 2 years. How can they rate Davis after a couple of pre-season performances?

Fun Gus, I don't think that the nerdsiders are comparing Spoon to Ryan. I think that they're comparing Spoon to other OLBs, and Ryan to other QBs. They have Ryan listed in the, "good," category, which a lot of people on this site would seem to agree with. They don't consider Ryan to be on the same playing field as Tom Brady, Drew Brees, etc. They have Spoon listed as a, "Star," at his position, and again, he is one of the best 4-3 OLBs in the NFL. Hard to argue that he is a star at his position.?

RAP, I completely understand that they weren't 'comparing' Spoon to Ryan directly. But I still do not agree, and you know I am a huge Spoon fan. Spoon is very,very good. BUt he is not Cornelius Bennett 'star' quality~ yet.

My issue is with the entire grading system.

You take Ryan off the field and replace him with other 'good' QB in their rankings and this team folds faster then Superman on laundry day.

But you take Spoon off the field, and put one of his peers, say a Lance Briggs, Chad Greenway, Will Witherspoon, and while the defense may srtuggle, they aren't going to completely implode.

So by that 'logic' if Spoon ranks as a 'star', then Ryan should as well. I think they are both very good, not elite yet, but will get there.

But they also put sackmaster Beirmann as 'good' as well. And he is on the cusp, if not just 'adequate'. If he was 'good' we wouldn't be looking for another DE and he could have stepped up and taken Abe's spot.

Basically, these guys will always have some numerical trickery to prove thier point, which is why I generally mock and tease them. Truth be told, I don't think they actually watch these guys, or they would not be repeating things like 'Ryan cant throw deep'. That's what people who only see Ryan in the playoffs, not the regular season see.

Look, it makes them $$ and keeps Pudge entertained, so in the bigger picture, who cares? But they continue proving my point with articles like these.

And we dont know about Davis, because he was never really given a chance to show exactly what he is capable of

BS. Davis had 1 year at Boston College, 1 year at Fort Scott CC, and 2 years at ECU to show what he is capable of. We know plenty about Davis. He's not particularly accurate, has sloppy footwork, and is still green in the offense because he struggles going to more than one progression. We also know he has a strong arm and is good with his legs, and in general has a good feel for the game.

By your logic, then you should also be complaining about Bradie Ewing, and pretty much everyone that is listed as J.A.G. because then they haven't really had the opportunity to show what they can do. So everyone should have the jury still out on them right? No, because when it's all said and done and jury reaches its ultimate verdict, in all likelihood they are going to be Just A Guy. I personally thought Pat Schiller was the most impressive of all our UDFAs last summer, and I think if he develops can become a pro like Chase Blackburn that can play 8+ years in the NFL as a versatile backup. But I'm not going to act like it's a disservice to his ability if someone considers him to be J.A.G.

This is nitpicking. You have them rating 60 or so players, and you disagree (strongly) on a half dozen of them, and thus in your eyes is "further proof of why Football Outsiders is out of touch" when it's really you just making a mountain out of a molehill.

Ryan doesn’t quite have top-notch arm strength, but he understands his progressions, he’s very sound fundamentally and, most importantly, he has developed the poise and toughness to make throws from a muddied pocket. In short, you can win a Super Bowl with Ryan as your quarterback.

I don't know what your issue is, but that is pretty fair analysis of Ryan. He doesn't have top-notch arm strength. As far as other 31 starters are involved, he's in the Bottom 10 in terms of arm strength. There are 5 starters that definitely have weaker arms than Ryan: Flynn, Alex Smith, Dalton, Kolb, & Ponder, and there's another 5 that he's in the general ball park around: Schaub, Brady, Rivers, Sanchez, Romo.

And I would say that Ryan has improved throwing from a muddied pocket, although I don't think it's a strength to his game. But he's made enough strides where it's not a huge hindrance anymore.

fun gus wrote:

But they continue proving my point with articles like these.

They aren't proving anything. You have a low opinion of their site, and basically damned if they do, they are damned if they don't. You seemingly agree with 90% of this article's contents.

This isn't crazy drivel written by an insane person. It's just an article that has a slightly different opinion than yours, but because of your bias against the site, you think it's a huge gulf, when it's not.

In Football Outsiders Almanac 2012, we unveiled SackSEER 2.0, an improved version of our system for projecting the pass rushing success of college edge rushers (4-3 defensive ends and 3-4 outside linebackers) selected in the NFL Draft. SackSEER 2.0 contained the following elements: •An "explosion index" that measures the prospect’s scores in the forty-yard dash, the vertical jump, and the broad jump in pre-draft workouts; •A metric called "SRAM" which stands for "sack rate as modified." SRAM measures the prospect’s per game sack productivity, but with adjustments for factors such as early entry in the NFL Draft and position switches during college; •The prospect’s college passes defensed divided by college games played; and •A metric that measures the prospect’s missed games of NCAA eligibility. This metric includes games missed for reasons such as time spent in Junior College, academic problems, injuries, benchings, and suspensions.

Last year, SackSEER 2.0 was somewhat bullish on USC defensive end turned outside linebacker Nick Perry, and was highly critical of two edge rushers who were thought to be sure first-round picks: Melvin Ingram and Courtney Upshaw. (Upshaw was actually drafted in the second round.) It is hard to get a read on Perry, who recorded 2.0 sacks in six games before landing on injured reserve. Ingram and Upshaw, however, struggled at compiling sacks in their first years. Ingram recorded only a single sack. Upshaw recorded only a sack and a half during the regular season and was held sackless during the Ravens’ playoff run.

The one player that SackSEER 2.0 seems to have really missed on is Bruce Irvin. Irvin had a fine first year for the Seahawks, recording 8.0 sacks to lead all rookies. Since we are always looking to improve SackSEER, we have two more tweaks to make to the model, both of which would have improved SackSEER’s take on Irvin significantly.

To be fair Fun Gus, everyone who takes any interest in football is looking for a way to identify talent. However, it has proven to be quite a challenge so far. A lot of the metrics used by Football Outsiders are quite informative. They're not the end all, be all of evaluating players, but their info is usually quite helpful. They're obviously going to miss from time to time. No one can truly evaluate what is going on in someone's head. Ray Edwards is a case in point. TD, the King of personality evaluation, totally missed on Ray Edwards. That kind of stuff is going to happen.

To be fair Fun Gus, everyone who takes any interest in football is looking for a way to identify talent. However, it has proven to be quite a challenge so far. A lot of the metrics used by Football Outsiders are quite informative. They're not the end all, be all of evaluating players, but their info is usually quite helpful. They're obviously going to miss from time to time. No one can truly evaluate what is going on in someone's head. Ray Edwards is a case in point. TD, the King of personality evaluation, totally missed on Ray Edwards. That kind of stuff is going to happen.

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