'Labour ahead'

“Our new Welsh Political Barometer poll provides the first evidence, in Wales at least, suggesting a ‘Corbyn-bounce’ for Labour,” said Professor Roger Scully from the Wales Governance Centre, which commissioned the poll jointly with ITV Cymru Wales.

He said: “With little more than seven months to go until the National Assembly election in May, Labour thus remain well ahead of the field. And after having had a disappointing general election, the boost we see in their support in this new Barometer poll must be heartening for them.”

Based on the figures, Prof Scully projects that only one constituency seat would change hands – with Plaid Cymru gaining Llanelli from Labour.

Seat projections

Overall, Prof Scully projected Labour to win 29 seats, the Tories with 12, Plaid with 10, Ukip with eight and the Liberal Democrats with one.

“The details of the poll point to Labour doing particularly well amongst some of those who voted for Plaid Cymru and the Lib-Dems in May’s general election: nearly a quarter of those in our sample who voted for Plaid Cymru, and almost a third of Lib-Dem voters, now say they would vote Labour in a general election.”

“We must remember that it is only one poll,” he added, “and also that if there has been a ‘Corbyn bounce’ for Labour, the party will need to sustain that all the way to the Assembly election next year for it to produce tangible results.”

Concern for Plaid?

Prof Scully said the poll will surely be encouraging for the Conservatives, with their Assembly numbers remaining ‘impressively robust’ from May’s general election.

“In contrast, for Plaid Cymru this poll must be a disappointment, with their vote slipping by two points across the board,” he added.

“That may simply be random sampling variation from one poll to the next, but this poll suggests that far from challenging the Tories for second place in the Assembly election, UKIP may even put them in danger of coming fourth in the popular vote.”

Labour also saw a slight boost in how people said they’d vote in the regional list – the second ballot paper where people can vote for a party in their region.

Some 34% said they’d vote Labour, up 2%, while the Conservatives’ share also rose by 2% to 24%. Meanwhile 18% said they’d back Plaid in the regional selection, slipping by 2%. There was no change for UKIP, the Lib Dems and the Greens, with their standing at 14%, 5% and 4% respectively.

The poll also measured how people would vote in a General Election, and with Labour’s share increasing by 5% to 42%. The Conservatives’ were backed by 26%, down 2%, while Ukip were up 1% to 16% in third place.

They remained ahead of Plaid Cymru, which came fourth at 10%, down 2% from the last poll, while the Liberal Democrats stood at 5%, up 1%.

The poll sampled 1010 Welsh adults and was carried out by YouGov on 21-24 September 2015.