Spring Roster Overanalysis 2013

I can't believe no entry in this series has previously embedded this youtube video. I endeavor to correct this oversight now:

In this spirit, we proceed.

THING: Boy, is it depressing to delete Denard Robinson from your spreadsheet here. On the other hand, not deleting Taylor Lewan.

QUARTERBACK

Player

2009

2010

2011

2012

Spring 2013

09 to 10

10 to 11

11 to 12

12 to 13

Devin Gardner

--

210

205

206

210

--

-5

1

4

Russell Bellomy

--

--

189

201

213

--

--

12

12

Running Back

Player

2009

2010

2011

2012

Spring 2013

09 to 10

10 to 11

11 to 12

12 to 13

Fitzgerald Toussaint

185

200

195

203

200

15

-5

8

-3

Thomas Rawls

--

--

219

217

217

--

--

-2

0

Justice Hayes

--

--

176

183

190

--

--

7

7

Dennis Norfleet

--

--

--

170

168

--

--

--

-2

Drake Johnson

--

--

--

203

212

--

--

--

9

Sione Houma

--

--

--

221

229

--

--

--

8

WIDE RECEIVER

Player

2009

2010

2011

2012

Spring 2013

09 to 10

10 to 11

11 to 12

12 to 13

Jeremy Gallon

165

180

185

186

187

15

5

1

1

Drew Dileo

--

172

172

180

177

--

0

8

-3

Amarah Darboh

--

--

--

218

213

--

--

--

-5

Jehu Chesson

--

--

--

183

193

--

--

--

10

TIGHT END

Player

2009

2010

2011

2012

Spring 2013

09 to 10

10 to 11

11 to 12

12 to 13

Jordan Paskortz

--

--

246

?

251

--

--

?

5

AJ Williams

--

--

--

282

265

--

--

--

-17

Devin Funchess

--

--

--

225

228

--

--

--

3

Jake Butt

--

--

--

--

231

--

--

--

0

OFFENSIVE LINE

Player

2009

2010

2011

2012

Spring 2013

09 to 10

10 to 11

11 to 12

12 to 13

Michael Schofield

268

293

299

302

303

25

6

3

1

Taylor Lewan

268

294

302

308

308

26

8

6

0

Chris Bryant

--

--

341

320

325

--

--

-21

5

Jack Miller

--

--

263

287

291

--

--

24

4

Blake Bars

--

--

--

282

284

--

--

--

2

Ben Braden

--

--

--

299

314

--

--

--

15

Kyle Kalis

--

--

--

292

297

--

--

--

5

Erik Magnuson

--

--

--

290

286

--

--

--

-4

Kyle Bosch

--

--

--

--

307

--

--

--

--

Logan Tuley-Tillman

--

--

--

--

285

--

--

--

--

DEFENSIVE LINE

Player

2009

2010

2011

2012

Spring 2013

09 to 10

10 to 11

11 to 12

12 to 13

Quinton Washington

325

315

302

299

305

-10

-13

-3

6

Jibreel Black

--

265

260

276

276

N/A

-5

16

0

Richard Ash

--

320

301

301

316

N/A

-19

0

15

Frank Clark

--

--

228

260

277

--

--

32

17

Keith Heitzman

--

--

251

?

277

--

--

?

26

Brennen Beyer

--

--

225

252

254

--

--

27

2

Matt Godin

--

--

--

270

277

--

--

--

7

Willie Henry

--

--

--

302

306

--

--

--

4

Ondre Pipkins

--

--

--

337

308

--

--

--

-29

Tom Strobel

--

--

--

250

262

--

--

--

12

Chris Wormley

--

--

--

268

290

--

--

--

22

Mario Ojemudia

--

--

--

223

244

--

--

--

21

Taco Charlton

--

--

--

--

265

--

--

--

N/A

LINEBACKER

Player

2009

2010

2011

2012

Spring 2013

09 to 10

10 to 11

11 to 12

12 to 13

Cameron Gordon

208

207

222

235

233

-1

15

13

-2

Mike Jones

203

208

224

?

223

5

16

?

-1

Jake Ryan

--

225

230

242

241

N/A

5

12

-1

Antonio Poole

--

--

212

?

218

--

--

?

6

Desmond Morgan

--

--

220

230

227

--

--

10

-3

Royce Jenkins-Stone

--

--

--

206

215

--

--

--

9

James Ross

--

--

--

225

223

--

--

--

-2

Kaleb Ringer

--

--

--

225

236

--

--

--

11

Joe Bolden

--

--

--

230

222

--

--

--

-8

CORNERBACK

Player

2009

2010

2011

2012

Spring 2013

09 to 10

10 to 11

11 to 12

12 to 13

Courtney Avery

--

174

173

173

174

--

-1

0

1

Raymon Taylor

--

--

169

183

186

--

--

14

3

Delonte Hollowell

--

--

164

177

175

--

--

13

-2

Blake Countess

--

--

176

182

181

--

--

6

-1

Terry Richardson

--

--

--

154

162

--

--

--

8

Ross Douglas

--

--

--

--

176

--

--

--

0

SAFETY

Player

2009

2010

2011

2012

Spring 2013

09 to 10

10 to 11

11 to 12

12 to 13

Josh Furman

--

208

208

204

197

--

0

-4

-7

Marvin Robinson

--

203

200

201

202

--

-3

1

1

Thomas Gordon

205

205

208

209

208

0

3

1

-1

Jarrod Wilson

--

--

--

190

196

--

--

--

6

Jeremy Clark

--

--

--

191

201

--

--

--

10

Allen Gant

--

--

--

196

203

--

--

--

7

Dymonte Thomas

--

--

--

--

187

--

--

--

0

ITEMS OF INTEREST

Remember, all weight gain or loss is good.

Ondre Pipkins dumped 29 pounds over the course of a few months, which should bode well for his playing time. Competing at the three-tech? Yeah, possible.

Elsewhere on the defensive line it's mostly BEEFCAKE, with Chris Wormley up to a hello-three-tech 290, Frank Clark up to 277, Mario Ojemudia up to 244, and Keith Heitzman scaling up to 277 after not having a spring weight last year.

Guys who did not move significantly are Quinton Washington (after three years of dropping, a few added pounds at 300 are probably good), Jibreel Black (probably not so good if he is a 276-pound DT), and Brennen Beyer (possibly good or bad or something). Surely there will be better options than a 276-pound three tech; I bet Black moves to SDE to compete with Heitzman. Meanwhile, Clark is now listed at exactly the same weight as those guys, blowing past classmate and WDE competitor Beyer. Most have pegged that as a platoon in which Beyer executes the run defense and Clark gets to the QB; could Clark take over the role full-time? He'll have to be a lot more responsible.

If Beyer can't continue adding weight a move back to SAM might make sense. This has been your Brian Wonders About Moving Someone To SAM moment.

Taco Charlton entering at 265 means he has a shot to blow past everyone at WDE as well. Likely? No, but despite the apparent depth at that position don't put him in the autoredshirt category.

The tight ends are not exactly hulking up. It makes sense that AJ Williams would shed some weight as he transitions back from offensive line to TE, and 265 is a reasonable weight for an in-line blocking TE. Devin Funchess adding three pounds is not ideal unless he's really just a wide receiver with a little blocking to do. Jake Butt showing up at 231 isn't a huge surprise—he weighed in at exactly that number for the Army game—but may indicate he, too, is not going to be much use as a blocker in year one. Redshirt? Probably not since there are no other scholarship TEs on the roster and Kwiatkowski graduated.

Jehu Chesson and Amarah Darboh are meeting in the middle. For non-lineman bodies ten pounds is a relatively big change. See also beanpole safety Jeremy Clark.

Dennis Norfleet losing two pounds isn't a huge surprise since guys that size usually stay exactly that size.

Relatively flat OL numbers are generally good news since they indicate radical overhauls are not necessary for player X to see the field. See Lewan and Schofield above. Chris Bryant is a clear exception since 325 is tough to play at and his injury makes it difficult for him to do a lot of the things Michigan would like him to. Meanwhile, size concerns about Jack Miller are probably minor. 291 is well within plausible.

I'd be surprised if Blake Bars can overtake Ben Braden, who is 30 pounds heavier. Magnuson and Bars going nowhere in year one is a slight concern.

Chattering about Kyle Bosch being ready to play this fall is reinforced by his 307 pounds. Logan Tuley-Tillman at 285 brings this whole exercise into question since that almost has to be fiction. The other option is that LTT is going to be a rich man when he shares his diet secrets. If he really is 285, that would be very good news since his star rose and fell based on his weight when he was a recruit. He seemed like a boom or bust type because of that. I'll ask Ace, who saw him in person with some frequency, to evaluate the plausibility of that weight after the spring game.

James Ross, man, you're supposed to get bigger. Also you, Joe Bolden. All linebackers not named Ringer have been on a diet.

No. First of all, a lineman doesnt have to be over 300 pounds to be affective. Also, he's a Freshman in college. It takes time for these guys to develop their bodies properly.

I think one of the biggest drawbacks in this era of relentless recruiting following is that fans get unreaslistic expectations of players. Like, since Kalis was a five star, he must be ready to contribute immediatly and his body must be pro-ready immediatly

As RS freshman, they might be losing a lot of weight due to the greater demands of college program cardio workouts and then putting it back on with the weightlifting. We would really need to see the incremental weight gains on a more consistent basis than once every spring and fall, especially considerinhg that the coaches probably have a significant incentive to fudge the numbers a bit. If he is still 297 come next year then maybe that would be a concern, but plenty of really good Olinemen can and do play at that weight. Be more concerned if the coaches are wondering about playing a true freshman or walkon over him.

The drastic change between weightlifting and eating during high school and college is tremendous. I remember thinking I was pretty hardcore in high school only to find out that I was a chump when I got to college. And I didn't even play a college sport! Its pretty amazing to see what the freshman do to their bodies in just 1 year's time.

1. In my opinion, Beyer possibly going to SAM would basically be resigning him to the bench. I just don't see the necessary athleticism, especially given the recent LB hauls. If he gets pulled for passing downs as an end as is, I can't imagine playing in space would go much better.

Agreed and I don't really understand the negative comment about him not gaining weight. Yes, ideally a guy gains weight but Beyer was decent against the run, less so rushing the QB. So do we really want him heavier? I think I want him around the same weight, shedding some fast and gaining a bit of muscle. That could make him more athletic and more of a factor, no? Unless people were anticipating a move to SDE?

We've heard hints at Ryan and Gordon possibly seeing the field at the same time this year, if that happened we'd be extremely thin at SAM, while this year we have 4 guys at WDE who could all play, so I think if Beyer moved back to SAM he'd still see the field plenty.

The impression that I had was that if Ryan and Gordon were both going to play, Ryan would probably move down to WDE on passing downs. If so, then moving Beyer to SAM doesn't really help much. If one of Ryan or Gordon gets tired or hurt and Beyer were going to play, they would probably just leave Beyer at WDE and put either of Ryan/Gordon at SAM. So I am not sure moving him helps depth really. And then you are moving him to a position with two playmakers so he his even less chance of playing. Again, I am probably missing something here.

Hoke and Mattison have both mentioned their preference of a 4-3 under, so I would think they'd mostly like to keep it at a true rush WDE and Jake behind/next to. Obvious/short running downs may differ, of course.

Then Ryan is playing the entire game--Gordon would be subbed out by Bolden, Morgan, or Ross. That means no rest which is not good. Beyer could back him up on 1st or second downs--the more likely running plays--and that would allow Ryan to play a lot and always be on the field on third down. I don't have any knowledge on the switch or playing both but if they did play both as starters then they need someone to rest Ryan.

From the press conference it was mentioned that Cam and Jake would see time on the field together, and when that happened Jake would be at WDE and Cam at SLB. It was not mentioned that both would start, just that there would be occasions where both would be on the field at the same time.

Indeed they do - I was sitting on a plane and stewardesses don't understand the importance of spring roster weight analysis.

Here's my number 2:

2. Another factor to consider in managing expectations and gleaning information from this is that it's only been a few short months since the season ended, but its been much longer since the 2012 weights were posted (assuming this is drawn from the fall roster and nothing was updated for the bowl game). So, the change might actually be greater (or less) than what's showing up given that players sometimes lose weight through the grind of the season. So while the linebacker lack of changes might be concerning, maybe they've already put back 5-6 pounds they lost during the season, and the bigger gains will come this summer.

I think Bars and Magnuson aren't in a bad place with their weight. The rougly 285 they're at right now is likely way different weight than the 285 they arrived at. They have plenty of time to gain rest of the 20 pounds they'll graduate with, but I suspect they'll get the first 10 by the end of this year.

Didn't he cut his flow? there's a few lbs. Also, he lost the 8 lbs to mess with people on the internet, as this fall he will now gain 12 lbs (net change of 4) so that we can all be excited with how much weight he gained over the summer.

It's easy to spin that as good. Losing weight will lessen his risk for type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and lessen the wear on his knees leading to a decreased risk of osteoarthritis later in life. What's not good about that?

They are trying to get them quicker. Most likely they are shedding fat right now and may [read: should/will] bulk up a bit by Fall. Many teams (look at Alabama's roster) are playing their LBs between 230 and 245. My guess is that the fall rosters will have Ross and Bolden around 230 as they focus more on weight/muscle gain and get away from bad wieght loss (FWIW, this team could use more team speed at LB from last year, the freshmen provide that a bit, but more speed is probably the correct direction).

I could see Frank Clark moving to SDE. This could be used in an effort to get him to play a little more soundly (clearly he has struggled grasping the coaching, so putting a SAM outside of him may force his hand a bit more and not tempt him to bow outside so much) and to get a bit more pass rush on the field. As far as Beyer goes, he isn't doing too bad. 260 would probably be a decent weight for him to play at.I expect to start seeing WDE drop more as SAM and WDE become more and more interchangable and WDE starts playing stand up more (thought there will still be a fairly clear difference between the two positions). Black I think moves back to the 5-tech more often than not, which is his more natural position. So his weight should probably be fine.

You now have Beyer, Ojemudia, and Strobel at WDE, along with Taco. Clark, Heitzman, and Black at SDE. Godin, Wormly, Henry at 3-tech (could play some of the 5-tech here on passing downs). Washington, Pipkins, and Ash at Nose. This team needs to get a better pass rush on the field, so playing ~260 WDE and ~280 SDE is probably the right move. The message this off-season appears fairly clear: we need more speed on the field.

What's our "best 11" for various plays? Mattison sure isn't shy about substituting various packages out there, and it wouldn't surprise me to have a few different personnell groups on the DL.

It wouldn't surprise me to have a DL of Mario/Black/Clark/Ryan on passing downs in the nickel/dime group, or even something like Clark/Pipkins/Washington/Wormley against spread teams in running situations.

Regarding Frank Clark, I don't know if it would be good to move him to SDE. Because of the type of blocks he would take on at SDE, I think his lack of technique/discipline would hurt him even more. Furthermore, I think his biggest issue at WDE is losing contain on the QB because he bites so hard inside on the zone read/inverted veer, rather than biting outside. With Beyer as a guy who's athletically limited but more fundamental, I think it would make more sense to bulk Beyer up at SDE and keep Clark at WDE.

But there is no reason for a WDE like Clark (at his height) to weigh that much. I do think they want to get a bit more athletic at the SDE. As a SDE, he probably wouldn't be the read guy against zone option teams as often (EMLOS would be SAM and WDE, unless Michigan isn't in their base, but that's being read less often than WDE would be).

Switching to SDE may allow him to focus more on technique and cut down on the decisions he has to make. But, again, this is trying to find a conclusion for why he has put on that much weight.

Kalis may not be at 300, but he is cut for an OL. Very little bad weight, all muscle. The LTT news is amazing, add a redshirt year on top of that which he desparately needs. In a couple years, he could be a force.

Chris Wormley goes to the dining hall pretty regularly. I have no idea how the dude bulks up so fast. He usually has a salad on one plate, and on the other it is filled with healthy protein like chicken breast, eggs, and fish. He drinks water (I think).

The LTT weight loss is definitely true. He looks a lot better.

Kyle Bosch looks like he plays in the NFL. He also hangs out with Taylor Lewan quite frequently, which is cool.

"March 18th..2013. Kyle Bosch has selected a ham sandwich from the south quad dining hall today. Veerrrry interesting. Ham is definitely good for Guards...On the other hand, Chris Wormley has selected Cocoa Puffs, not what I would expect from a 3-Tech, but I've seen stranger. End transmission"