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Monday, 20 June 2016

The war in Syria - 06/20/2016

Syria
- Russian Surprise Attack Blows Up Kerry's Delaying Tactic

The
U.S. is unwilling
to stop the war on Syria and to settle the case at the
negotiation table. It wants a 100% of its demands fulfilled, the
dissolution of the Syrian government and state and the inauguration
of a U.S. proxy administration in Syria.

After
the ceasefire in Syria started in late February Obama broke
his pledge to separate the U.S. supported "moderate
rebels" from al-Qaeda. In April U.S. supported rebels, the
Taliban like Ahrar al Sham and al-Qaeda joined to attack the Syrian
government in south Aleppo. The U.S. proxies broke the ceasefire.

Two
UN resolutions demand that al-Qaeda in Syria be fought no matter
what. But the U.S. has at least twice asked Russia not to bomb
al-Qaeda. It insists, falsely, that it can not separate its
"moderates" from al-Qaeda and that al-Qaeda can not be
attacked because that would also hit its "moderate"
friends.

The
Russian foreign minster Lavrov has talked wit Kerry many times about
the issue. But the only response he received were requests to further
withhold bombing. Meanwhile al-Qaeda and the "moderates"
continued to break the ceasefire and to attack the Syrian government
forces.

After
nearly four month Kerry still insists that the U.S. needs even more
time for the requested separation of its proxy forces from al-Qaeda.
Foreign Minister Lavrov recently expressed the
Russian consternation:

The
Americans are now saying that they are unable to remove the 'good'
opposition members from the positions held by al-Nusra Front, and
that they will need another two-three months. I
am under the impression that there is a game here and they may want
to keep al-Nusra Front in some form and later use it to overthrow the
[Assad] regime," Lavrov said at the St. Petersburg International
Economic Forum.

The
bucket was full and Kerry's latest request for another three month
pause of attacking al-Qaeda was the drop that let it overflow. Russia
now responded by hitting the
U.S. where it did not expect to be hit:

Russian
warplanes hit Pentagon-backed Syrian fighters with a barrage of
airstrikes earlier this week,
disregarding several warnings from U.S. commanders in what American
military officials called the most provocative act since Moscow’s
air campaign in Syria began last year.

The
strikes hit a base near the Jordanian border, far from areas where
the Russians were previously active, and targeted U.S.-backed forces
battling the Islamic State militants....These latest
strikes occurred on the other side of the country from the usual
Russian operations, around Tanf, a town near where the borders of
Jordan, Iraq, and Syria meet....The Russian strike hit
a small rebel base for staging forces and equipment in a desolate,
unpopulated area near the border. About 180 rebels were there as part
of the Pentagon's program to train and equip fighters against Islamic
State.

When
the first strikes hit, the rebels called a U.S. command center in
Qatar, where the Pentagon orchestrates the daily air war against
Islamic State.

U.S.
jets came and the Russian jets went away. The U.S. jets left to
refuel, the Russian jets came back and hit again.Allegedly two
U.S. proxy fighters were killed and 18 were wounded.

Earlier
today another such attack hit the same target.

This
was no accident but a well planned operation and the Russian
spokesperson's response makes the intend clear:

Kremlin
spokesman Dmitry Peskov appeared to confirm the attack
Friday, telling
reporters it was difficult to distinguish different rebel groups from
the air.

Translation:
"If you can not separate your forces from al-Qaeda and
differentiate and designate exclusively "moderate" zones we
can not do so either."

The
forces near Tanf are supported by U.S. artillery from Jordan and air
power via Iraq. British and Jordan special operations forces are part
of the ground component (and probably the majority of the "Syrian"
fighters.) There is no al-Qaeda there. The Russians know that well.
But they wanted to make the point that it is either separation
everywhere or separation nowhere. From now on until the U.S. clearly
separates them from AQ all U.S. supported forces will be hit
indiscriminately anywhere and anytime. (The Syrian Kurds fighting the
Islamic State with U.S. support are for now a different story.)

The
Pentagon does not want any further engagement against the Syrian
government or against Russia. It wants to fight the Islamic State and
its hates the CIA for its cooperation with al-Qaeda and other Jihadi
elements. But John Brennan, the Saudi operative and head of the CIA,
still seems to have Obama's ear. But what can Obama do now? Shoot
down a Russian jet and thereby endanger any U.S. pilot flying in
Syria or near the Russian border? Risk a war with Russia? Really?

The
Russian hit near Tanf was clearly a surprise. The Russians again
caught Washington on the wrong foot. The message to the Obama
administration is clear. "No more delays and obfuscations. You
will separate your moderates NOW or all your assets in Syria will be
juicy targets for the Russian air force."

The
Russian hits at Tanf and the U.S. proxies there has an additional
benefit. The U.S. had planned to let those forces move north towards
Deir Ezzor and to defeat the Islamic State in that city. Eventually a
"Sunni entity" would be established in south east Syria and
west Iraq under U.S. control. Syria would be split apart.

The
Syrian government and its allies will not allow that. There is a
large operation planned to free Deir Ezzor from the Islamic State
occupation. Several hundred Syrian government forces have held an
isolated airport in Deir Ezzor against many unsuccessful Islamic
State attacks. These troops get currently reinforced by additional
Syrian army contingents and Hizbullah commandos.A big battle is
coming. Deir Ezzor may be freed within the next few month. Any U.S.
plans for some eastern Syrian entity are completely unrealistic if
the Syrian government can take and hold its largest eastern city.

The
Obama administration's delaying tactic will now have to end. Russia
will no longer stand back and watch while the U.S. sabotages the
ceasefire and supports al-Qaeda.