Thursday, October 1, 2015

Large Drop In Casualties In Iraq 4th Wk Of Sep, But Figures Not Reliable

In the fourth week of September 2015 attacks remained
largely the same as the previous month, but there was a dramatic drop in the
number of dead and wounded. One reason might have been the Eid holiday and the
increased security precautions. At the same time many papers closed down for
most of the week, which meant a lot of violence went unreported. This was
another example of how casualties have stopped being a reliable measure of the
security situation in Iraq since the summer of 2014 because of censorship and
government propaganda.

There were 128 attacks in the media from September 22-28.
That was in line with the previous weeks when there were 122 incidents from
September 15-21, 144 from September 8-14, 139 from September 1-7, 136 from
August 22-28, 135 from August 15-21, and 132 from August 8-14. During that
7-week stretch there has been an average of 19.0 incidents per day. That
compared to 20.6 attacks per day during the 7 weeks beforehand.

Baghdad had the most attacks with 50. After that there were
30 in Anbar, 20 in Salahaddin, 10 in Ninewa, 7 in Diyala, 6 in Kirkuk, 3 in
Babil, and one in the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG).

During the week there were 190 deaths and 258 wounded. That
was the fewest number reported killed and injured in a full week for all of
2015. The major cause could have been the increased security that the
government provided during the Eid holiday. However, the fact that many of
Iraq’s newspapers went on holiday was probably a bigger factor. This highlights
the fact that casualties are not a good measure of violence in Iraq anymore.
Too many incidents have not been reported, and the government rarely goes
public with its losses. That means what is counted should be considered a bare
minimum for what is really happening in the country.

Violence
In Iraq By Week 2015

Date

Incidents

Dead

Wounded

Jan 1-7

189

466

464

Jan 8-14

172

733

518

Jan 15-21

189

403

528

Jan 22-28

195

492

899

Jan 29-31

91

306

568

JAN

836

2,400

2,977

Feb 1-7

155

408

688

Feb 8-14

177

443

566

Feb 15-21

169

592

383

Feb 22-28

171

391

705

FEB

672

1,834

2,342

Mar 1-7

176

373

595

Mar 8-14

137

398

656

Mar 15-21

146

1,304

505

Mar 22-28

174

273

406

Mar 29-31

72

205

219

MAR

705

2,553 + 4

2,381 + 150

Apr 1-7

127

218

422

Apr 8-14

137

676

542

Apr 15-21

172

729

717

Apr 22-28

163

497

483

Apr 29-30

50

162
+ 7

182
+ 299

APR

649

2,282

2,346

May 1-7

154

627

450

May 8-14

154

420

549

May 15-21

124

963

387

May 22-28

108

341
+ 1,499

348

May 29-31

38

66

164
+ 646

MAY

578

2,417 + 1,499

1,898 + 646

Jun 1-7

132

431

476

Jun 8-14

126

522
+ 405

394

Jun 15-21

141

365

373

Jun 22-28

162

306

474

Jun 29-30

61

122

189

JUN

622

1,804

2,012

Jul 1-7

161

435

719

Jul 8-14

140

384

570

Jul 15-21

109

359

597
+ 4,024

Jul 22-28

145

527

590

Jul 29-31

53

453
+ 8

603

JUL

608

2,166

3,079 + 4,024

Aug 1-7

154

650
+ 760

298

Aug 8-14

132

726

645

Aug 15-21

135

345

354

Aug 22-28

136

342

296

Aug 29-31

59

112
+ 5

169

AUG

616

2,180 + 760

1,762

Sep 1-7

139

285

352

Sep 8-14

144

368

394

Sep 15-21

122

323

488

Sep 22-28

128

190

258

Violence
In Iraq Sep 2015 by Province

Provinces

Sep
1-7

Sep
8-14

Anbar

25 Incidents

52 Killed: 5 Civilians, 10 Hashd,
13 ISF, 24 Sahwa

45 Wounded: 8 Civilians, 10 Sahwa,
12 ISF, 15 Hashd

10 Shootings

4 Suicide Bombers

3 Suicide Car Bombs

2 Mortars

19 Suicide Bombers Killed

20 Car Bombs Destroyed

24 Incidents

29 Killed: 4 Civilians, 8 Hashd,
17 ISF

57 Wounded: 13 Hashd, 19 ISF, 25
Civilians

10 Shootings

2 IEDs

2 Suicide Bombers

2 Suicide Car Bombs

2 Mortars

4 Suicide Bombers killed

5 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed

1 Motorcycle Bomb Destroyed

13 Car Bombs Destroyed

Babil

2 Incidents

2 Killed: 2 Civilians

5 wounded: 5 Civilians

1 IED

5 Incidents

4 Killed: 4 Civilians

14 Wounded: 4 ISF, 10 Civilians

1 Shooting

3 IEDs

Baghdad

58 Incidents

73 Killed: 2 ISF, 71 Civilians

199 Wounded: 8 ISF, 191 Civilians

11 Shootings

28 IEDs

8 Sticky Bombs

2 Car Bombs

1 Grenade

2 Car Bombs Destroyed

57 Incidents

65 Killed: 1 Sahwa, 2 Hashd, 4
ISF, 58 Civilians

154 Wounded: 14 ISF, 140 Civilians

14 Shootings

22 IEDs

10 Sticky Bombs

1 Car Bomb

2 Grenades

Basra

-

3 Incidents

1 Wounded: 1 ISF

2 IEDs

1 Sound Bomb

Diyala

8 Incidents

14 Killed: 5 ISF, 9 Civilians

24 Wounded: 1 ISF, 23 Civilians

4 Shootings

2 IEDs

1 Car Bomb

1 Mortar

12 Incidents

16 Killed: 3 Hashd, 4 ISF, 9
Civilians

20 Wounded: 1 ISF, 1 Asayesh, 3
Hashd, 15 Civilians

5 Shootings

5 IEDs

1 Car Bomb

Karbala

1 Incident

2 Sound Bombs

1 Incident

1 Car Bomb Destroyed

Kirkuk

4 Incidents

1 Killed: 1 Civilian

1 Wounded: 1 Hashd

2 Shootings

2 Car Bombs Destroyed

6 Incidents

29 Killed: 9 Civilians, 20
Peshmerga

121 Wounded: 6 Civilians, 115
Peshmerga

2 Shootings

3 IEDs

KRG

-

2 Incidents

95 Killed: 95 PKK

2 Turkish Air Strikes

Ninewa

21 Incidents

116 Killed: 8 Peshmerga, 108
Civilians

22 Wounded: 2 Peshmerga, 20
Civilians

10 Shootings

3 IEDs

1 Rocket

1 Mortar

13 Incidents

104 Killed: 8 Peshmerga, 32 ISF,
64 Civilians

4 Shootings

1 IED

1 Mortar

Qadisiyah

1 Incident

-

Salahaddin

19 Incidents

27 Killed: 6 ISF, 21 Civilians

56 Wounded: 21 ISF, 35 Civilians

7 Shootings

4 IEDs

1 Mortar

12 Suicide Bombers Killed

1 Suicide Car Bomb Destroyed

21 Incidents

26 Killed: 6 Hashd, 9 Civilians,
11 ISF

27 Wounded: 7 Hashd, 9 ISF, 11
Civilians

11 Shootings

4 IEDs

1 Car Bomb

2 Suicide Bombers Killed

9 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed

1 Motorcycle Bomb Destroyed

1 Car Bomb Destroyed

Provinces

Sep
15-21

Sep
22-28

Anbar

18 Incidents

30 Killed: 4 ISF, 26 Civilians

56 Wounded: 6 ISF, 50 Civilians

9 Shootings

1 IED

1 Rockets

2 Mortars

3 Suicide Car
Bombs Destroyed

30 Incidents

52 Killed: 8 ISF, 17 Hashd, 27
Civilians

37 Wounded: 1 ISF, 9 Hashd, 27
Civilians

15 Shootings

3 Suicide Car Bombs

4 Mortars

1 Artillery

42 Car Bombs Destroyed

Babil

3 Incidents

6 Killed: 6 Civilians

19 Wounded: 19 Civilians

3 IEDs

3 Incidents

9 Wounded: 9 Civilians

1 Shooting

1 IED

1 Sticky Bomb

Baghdad

50 Incidents

88 Killed: 2 Sahwa, 6 ISF, 80
Civilians

303 Wounded: 5 Sahwa, 9 ISF, 289
Civilians

13 Shootings

19 IEDs

4 Sticky Bombs

1 Suicide Bomber

3 Car Bombs

2 Rockets

2 Suicide Bombers Killed

50 Incidents

57 killed: 1 ISF, 56 Civilians

168 Wounded: 1 Sahwa, 167
Civilians

8 Shootings

23 IEDs

5 Sticky Bombs

1 Car Bomb

1 Suicide Car Bomb Destroyed

2 Car Bombs Destroyed

Diyala

5 Incidents

9 Killed: 1 ISF, 8 Civilians

11 Wounded: 2 ISF, 9 Civilians

3 Shootings

1 IED

1 Sticky Bomb

2 Motorcycle Bombs Dismantled

1 Car Bomb Dismantled

7 Incidents

7 Killed: 1 ISF, 6 Civilians

23 Wounded: 1 ISF, 1 Hashd, 21
Civilians

3 Shootings

1 Sticky Bomb

1 Car Bomb

2 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed

1 Car Bomb Destroyed

KRG

1 Incident

55 Killed: 55 PKK

1 Turkish Air Raid

1 Incident

19 Killed: 19 PKK

1 Turkish Air Strike

Kirkuk

8 Incidents

4 Killed: 4 Civilians

3 Wounded: 1 Civilian, 2 Hashd

2 Shootings

1 Rocket

6 Incidents

20 Killed: 20 Civilians

1 Wounded: 1 Hashd

2 Shootings

1 Mortar

Ninewa

16 Incidents

45 Killed: 5 ISF, 40 Civilians

9 Shootings

21 IEDs

1 Rocket

11 incidents

20 Killed: 2 Peshmerga, 5 ISF, 13
Civilians

12 Wounded: 12 Peshmerga

3 Shootings

1 IED

1 Mortar

1 Rockets

Salahaddin

21 Incidents

82 Killed: 4 ISF, 78 Civilians

96 Wounded: 27 ISF, 69 Civilians

15 Shootings

4 IEDs

2 Suicide Car Bombs

3 Mortars

1 Car Bomb Destroyed

20 Incidents

15 Killed: 3 ISF, 5 Civilians, 7
Hashd

8 Wounded: 4 Hashd, 4 Civilians

12 Shootings

2 IEDs

2 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed

15 Car Bombs Destroyed

Wasit

1 incident

4 Killed: 4 Civilians

1 Shooting

-

The fourth week of September was another period of treading
water in Anbar. The seventh operation
to clear East Husaiba to the east of Ramadi was launched. Another sweep through
Albu Diab started, even though the town has been declared cleared twice since
the Anbar offensive began in July. The government’s forces continued to be
drawn out into western Anbar by the Islamic State, this time with a new drive
into Baghdadi, the third since July, which only saps manpower away from the
main thrust into Ramadi and Fallujah. Fighting also continued in Garma where
there has been an on going campaign since May. It’s not that Baghdad has not
made progress in Anbar. There has been penetration into southern Ramadi and
northern Fallujah for instance. The problem is the Iraqi Security Forces, Hashd,
and tribes have not been able to hold many of the major towns surrounding the
two main cities, and have continuously fallen for diversionary attacks by the
Islamic State. The result is that the joint forces are squeezing the balloon in
Anbar, pushing out insurgents from one area only to have them re-emerge in
another.

Selected Security Operations In Anbar

East
Husaiba

Albu Diab

Baghdadi

Operation 7/19/15

Cleared 7/29/15

Operation 7/30/15

Cleared 7/21/15

Cleared 9/13/15

Operation 8/24/15

Operation 7/26/15

Operation 9/26/15

Operation 9/25/15

Operation 8/2/15

Cleared 8/6/15

Operation 8/10/15

Operation 8/25/15

Cleared 8/30/15

Operation 9/16/15

Operation 9/25/15

East Baghdad continued to be a main target of the Islamic
State in the capital province. There were 16 there, but 16 also in the south,
along with 7 in the north and west respectively, along with 3 in the center.
Those included 4 car bombs, three of which were destroyed or dismantled, 5
sticky bombs, 8 shootings, and 23 IEDs.

In Kirkuk the Kurds made another foray into the Daquq
district. They were able to take one village on September
22. This offensive began on August 26, and has been able to capture almost
three dozen towns since then. There have been reports
that Kurdish volunteers have been looting, while the Peshmerga have been
bulldozing houses and not letting locals return.

Turkey reported another foray into the Kurdistan Regional
Government (KRG). On September
25 an air strike was said to have killed 19 Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK)
fighters. There were several other Turkish missions into Iraq during the week,
but no reports of casualties.

IS made two attacks upon the Peshmerga in Sinjar during the
week. The first was a mortar
barrage that wounded two and then an infantry
attack that left 2 Peshmerga dead and 10 wounded. The Islamic State also
executed 18 people during the week in Mosul and Qayara.

In Salahaddin almost all of the fighting continued to center
around Baiji. IS launched attacks throughout the district almost every day of
the week. The government also launched another operation
in Samarra Island, the fourth since the start of August.

Finally, the Islamic State’s on going car bomb campaign
picked up pace again. During the third week of September there were only 10
vehicle borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs) in the entire country
compared to 34 the week before. From September 22-28 there were 70 car bombs. Anbar
was the main target with 45 there. Only three suicide bombers were successful
with the other 42 destroyed. There were another 17 in Salahaddin, 11 of which
were in the Baiji district. Four car bombs were launched against Baghdad with
three being destroyed or dismantled before reaching their targets. Finally, Diyala
was hit for the fifth straight week with 5 VBIEDs, which means IS might be
picking up their bombing campaign there as well.

IRAQ HISTORY TIMELINE

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Musings On Iraq was started in 2008 to explain the political, economic, security and cultural situation in Iraq via original articles and interviews. If you wish to contact me personally my email is: motown67@aol.com