Rain brings a state of relief

Heavy rainfall across most of Victoria has eased fire danger and boosted morale, raising hopes that the state's worst drought in 100 years is about to break.

The drought-ravaged Wimmera and Mallee districts in the north-west recorded the biggest falls, with several towns in the wheat growing district recording more than 100 millimetres by 9am yesterday.

But experts warned the rains did not yet signal the end of drought, which has wiped $8 billion off Australia's farm income. Rather, they confirmed that the El Nino weather system, which caused a worsening of conditions last year, had peaked and was in decline.

They said several months of good rainfall was needed before the drought could be declared broken.

Weather forecasters predicted more rain could come late next week, although it was unlikely to be as heavy. Average rainfall is predicted for autumn.

Country Fire Authority spokesman Peter Philp said the rains had provided relief to the bushfire-ravaged north-east, particularly around Swifts Creek in Gippsland. They had slowed down the fire fronts enough to allow firefighters to tackle the blazes, he said.

But Mr Philp said more rain was needed this weekend with a fire west of Mount Buffalo still burning.

"We want constant light rain but what we are getting now has enabled us to turn the tables and start attacking the fires," he said.

The Bureau of Meteorology's head of climate analysis, David Jones, said recent weather patterns fit the classic model of El Nino breaking down.

"As summer progresses, the rain starts to return to the north, we see good monsoonal activity and you get these incursions of tropical moisture south which slowly but surely break down the drought," he said.

"It doesn't guarantee that the drought will break down completely but it's all pointing in that direction."

Don White, director of Weatherwatch, said the rains could be the start of better times.

"This is the first positive indication that the conditions are changing and this might be the first step back to normality," Mr White said.

But he said the problems caused by the drought, regarded as the worst in 100 years, were not going to be solved by one burst of rain.

"If you can get this type of rain every week for about four weeks you can almost say the worst part of the drought is over, but that is not going to happen," Mr White said.

"The subsurface moisture has been so depleted that it could take six months of regular rainfall to even start getting that back to normal," Mr White said.

Dr Jones said the rains had provided a confidence boost for Victorian farmers. Some places had received four times the February average during the past two days, he said, "so it is a very rare event".

"February tends to be the driest month in most parts of Victoria, so really the likelihood of getting good drought-breaking rains in February is fairly low in Victoria. Sometimes you get lucky," Dr Jones said.

But despite the optimism in rural areas, Melbourne Water general manager Brian Bayley said the rains had had little impact on the state's water reserves, which remain at 46 per cent capacity.

"In terms of what we need it is virtually nothing," he said. "In the catchments, it will settle the dust. We need above average winter rain to have restrictions lifted."

Graeme Hannan, manager of water systems Goulburn Murray Water, also said the rain had little effect on its catchments.

"We have had good rain in our irrigation areas, but only limited rain in our catchments," he said. "Over Lake Eildon we have so far only got eight millimetres. It has taken the pressure off demand for about a week."