Steve Alexander

Offseason Beat

Poor Timing On Love's Injury

Kevin Love – Love’s broken hand is a real buzzkill, especially if you’ve already drafted him. The good news is that he should be back in late-November, or early-December. And unlike some other injured stars, his numbers are so good that missing the first 14 or so games won’t destroy his fantasy value. I don’t think you can still draft Love in Round 1, but my guess is he’ll go in Round 2 in most drafts. If you’re going to take the plunge, make sure you have room on your bench for him. In daily leagues without games limits, carrying injured players can be a painful experience. In weekly leagues, the hit isn’t as severe, while some leagues still have an injured reserve spot, allowing you to keep him and pick up another guy. I bumped Love from the No. 2 PF behind LeBron James to the No. 5 PF, now behind Josh Smith, LaMarcus Aldridge, Pau Gasol and Serge Ibaka.

Andrew Bynum – Bynum has a bone bruise and is also getting a Synvisc injection, which will hopefully help him make it through the season. I heard rumblings that Bynum wasn’t exactly a model of health over the offseason and all this sitting around is going to make his conditioning a potential problem once he is ready to take the court again. I haven’t dropped his games played numbers yet, but may have to if we don’t see him soon. If healthy, he should be the No. 1 fantasy center this season. But we’re not off to a good start, and he’s gone from being a no-brainer first-round pick, to being taken in the second or third round. He’s a true risk vs. reward player this year, as are all of these guys. I’m not opposed taking a flier on him in Round 2 or 3, but have generally been avoiding him, while targeting guys like Marcin Gortat and Nikola Pekovic, among others.

Dwight Howard – Most of the concerns I had about his surgically-repaired back have gone away, as reports from our friends in Los Angeles have been glowing. His back no longer hurts and he’s apparently just waiting to get his conditioning close to 100 percent before he takes the court. It would now be surprising if he doesn’t play before Bynum, which didn’t seem possible a month ago. As for where to draft him, just know that regardless of format, he will cause you to lose free throw percentage every week, as well as finish last there in Roto leagues. He simply shoots and misses too many of them to avoid it. And again, if your league uses free throws made instead, he might be worth the No. 1 pick. As for his back, I could see him missing 10 games this season, but it sounds like once he’s ready to go, he isn’t going to be too much of an injury risk.

Dirk Nowitzki – I dropped Dirk substantially in our rankings based on his latest knee problems. It continues to swell and he continues to have it drained, and now he’s working it out aggressively to see how it reacts. If the swelling comes back, there’s a very good chance he’s going to have surgery. And what they find when they get in there will be the key. Either way, even if he doesn’t go under the knife, it means the knee will likely be a problem throughout the season. Draft him if you want, but my guess is he’s either going to have surgery, or become a gamble to put in weekly lineups for most of the year. I’m not drafting him in any leagues as of now.

And on a side note, if Dirk’s knee continues to be an issue, Elton Brand will end up being a super value pick. If you draft Nowitzki, Brand looks like a required late handcuff.

Eric Gordon – Gordon’s story is very similar to Dirk’s, except with the added caveat that he played in just nine games last year, and had offseason surgery to “fix” the problem. Like Dirk, he’s aggressively working his knee right now to see how it reacts. Surgery hasn’t been mentioned, but you have to think if it’s still a problem two weeks from now, he might end up going under the knife. We’ve dropped him ridiculously low in our rankings, simply because the risk associated with him outweighs the potential reward. As my friend Kelin told me tonight, “I don’t draft guys with one leg.”

John Wall – Wall is supposed to miss about the same number of games as Love, which means you can look for him around Dec. 1. He’s been a little injury prone throughout his career and didn’t live up to the hype last year. He also doesn’t hit 3-pointers, but is one of the league’s best pure scorers when clicking on all cylinders. I’m not opposed to drafting Wall, but I wouldn’t touch him before Round 5, and you have to be a little worried about his conditioning once he’s back. But if all goes well and you have room on your bench, Wall could be a second-half beast after Christmas.

Danny Granger – Granger has yet to play in the preseason as he is dealing with a left knee problem of his own. The good news is that he’s scheduled to play in the next two preseason games for the Pacers and has been able to avoid surgery on the knee. The bad news is that this is not a new injury, and was even a fairly serious issue when he played at New Mexico. You can see the details in this column. Granger is no longer an up-and-coming stud to target in Round 2, but instead a risky gamble in the middle rounds of your draft. Paul George is getting ready to take over as the man for the Pacers, but Granger’s still going to put up some gaudy numbers if healthy. A lot of the risk is removed if you can get him in Round 6, but I seriously doubt this will be the last time you read about his left knee this season.

With news that Kevin Love will miss about six to eight weeks with a broken right hand, my Twitter feed is blowing up with questions as to where he should be drafted. So I’m going to talk about some of the injured stars floating around on draft boards right now, with Love being at the top of the list.

But first, I wanted to take a minute to talk about Fantasy Hoops in general, in regards to league settings and strategies. I’m in five football leagues, and outside of one or two minor things, and two major ones (play 2 QBs & PPR), it seems like most football leagues are essentially set up in the same way. Therefore, coming up with one set of rankings isn’t that hard to do. Of course the biggest difference in football leagues is they’re either points per reception or they’re not. And while doing football research, or a live draft, it’s not that hard to figure out which guys catch a lot of balls and which ones don’t.

But fantasy hoops is a completely different animal. I’m in 11 hoops leagues this year, and every single one is different. There are Rotisserie, Head-to-head and Points-based leagues. There are 30-team leagues and there are eight-team leagues. There are five-category scoring leagues, and there are 14-category scoring leagues. Offensive rebounds, turnovers, 3-point percentage, triple-doubles and technical fouls are just some of the weird categories prevalent in many fantasy hoops leagues.

I get the sense that nine-category leagues are prevalent thanks to Yahoo!, but whether they are Roto, H2H or points leagues changes each player’s fantasy value in some manner. And even if you’re comparing one H2H league to another, there’s a big difference between scoring systems. Does your league count one category as a point? Or does your league have a points system set up that has your weekly game ending in a score resembling a real NBA score? Another big discrepancy is whether your league limits starts at each position. If it does, the weekly schedule essentially means nothing. And then there are the differences between leagues with varying position requirements. A league that requires you to start two centers makes them much more scarce than leagues that only require you to start one. The difference in where centers are drafted in one- and two-center leagues is huge. Glen Davis is a late sleeper in one-center leagues, and a hot commodity in two-center leagues.

Because of all of these factors and the fact so few leagues are identical, ranking NBA players in fantasy hoops is not a pleasant task. Dwight Howard is the prime example. In leagues that count free throws made instead of free throw percentage, and don’t count turnovers, he’s probably the No. 1 overall pick. In Roto leagues that count both FTP and turnovers, he’s virtually undraftable, unless you think you can win despite taking a guaranteed “1” in that free throw percentage. Yes, I know some of you have won a Roto league despite taking a “1,” but it’s not easy to do.

So the bottom line is that you have to take rankings as a rough guide, and not a bible when looking at whom to draft. It all depends on your league’s settings. Our Tiersare the easiest thing to keep updated accurately and are my favorite tool to use when drafting, but whatever rankings you use when drafting, take into consideration everything I mentioned above. Blake Griffin is a stud in points leagues, but is a bit of a Roto nightmare. And trying to come up with a general set of rankings in hoops is nearly impossible. I don’t ever see a day when we can all get on the same page and agree on roster size, starting lineups and a scoring system, so this will be an ongoing challenge.

Lastly, in regards to auction leagues, the size of your league is a key factor when considering how to spend your money. If your league is only 130 players deep, it makes sense to spend your money on studs early because there will be plenty of talent available late in the dollar rounds. Like when I got Glen Davis for a dollar in this draft. But if you are doing a deep-league auction, conserving your money is much more important so you can get those players in the 130 range, outbidding the guys without a bank roll, and not having to settle for Enes Kanter as your back up center. Keep reading for the good stuff - Injury Breakdown

Injury Fest

Kevin Love – Love’s broken hand is a real buzzkill, especially if you’ve already drafted him. The good news is that he should be back in late-November, or early-December. And unlike some other injured stars, his numbers are so good that missing the first 14 or so games won’t destroy his fantasy value. I don’t think you can still draft Love in Round 1, but my guess is he’ll go in Round 2 in most drafts. If you’re going to take the plunge, make sure you have room on your bench for him. In daily leagues without games limits, carrying injured players can be a painful experience. In weekly leagues, the hit isn’t as severe, while some leagues still have an injured reserve spot, allowing you to keep him and pick up another guy. I bumped Love from the No. 2 PF behind LeBron James to the No. 5 PF, now behind Josh Smith, LaMarcus Aldridge, Pau Gasol and Serge Ibaka.

Andrew Bynum – Bynum has a bone bruise and is also getting a Synvisc injection, which will hopefully help him make it through the season. I heard rumblings that Bynum wasn’t exactly a model of health over the offseason and all this sitting around is going to make his conditioning a potential problem once he is ready to take the court again. I haven’t dropped his games played numbers yet, but may have to if we don’t see him soon. If healthy, he should be the No. 1 fantasy center this season. But we’re not off to a good start, and he’s gone from being a no-brainer first-round pick, to being taken in the second or third round. He’s a true risk vs. reward player this year, as are all of these guys. I’m not opposed taking a flier on him in Round 2 or 3, but have generally been avoiding him, while targeting guys like Marcin Gortat and Nikola Pekovic, among others.

Dwight Howard – Most of the concerns I had about his surgically-repaired back have gone away, as reports from our friends in Los Angeles have been glowing. His back no longer hurts and he’s apparently just waiting to get his conditioning close to 100 percent before he takes the court. It would now be surprising if he doesn’t play before Bynum, which didn’t seem possible a month ago. As for where to draft him, just know that regardless of format, he will cause you to lose free throw percentage every week, as well as finish last there in Roto leagues. He simply shoots and misses too many of them to avoid it. And again, if your league uses free throws made instead, he might be worth the No. 1 pick. As for his back, I could see him missing 10 games this season, but it sounds like once he’s ready to go, he isn’t going to be too much of an injury risk.

Dirk Nowitzki – I dropped Dirk substantially in our rankings based on his latest knee problems. It continues to swell and he continues to have it drained, and now he’s working it out aggressively to see how it reacts. If the swelling comes back, there’s a very good chance he’s going to have surgery. And what they find when they get in there will be the key. Either way, even if he doesn’t go under the knife, it means the knee will likely be a problem throughout the season. Draft him if you want, but my guess is he’s either going to have surgery, or become a gamble to put in weekly lineups for most of the year. I’m not drafting him in any leagues as of now.

And on a side note, if Dirk’s knee continues to be an issue, Elton Brand will end up being a super value pick. If you draft Nowitzki, Brand looks like a required late handcuff.

Eric Gordon – Gordon’s story is very similar to Dirk’s, except with the added caveat that he played in just nine games last year, and had offseason surgery to “fix” the problem. Like Dirk, he’s aggressively working his knee right now to see how it reacts. Surgery hasn’t been mentioned, but you have to think if it’s still a problem two weeks from now, he might end up going under the knife. We’ve dropped him ridiculously low in our rankings, simply because the risk associated with him outweighs the potential reward. As my friend Kelin told me tonight, “I don’t draft guys with one leg.”

John Wall – Wall is supposed to miss about the same number of games as Love, which means you can look for him around Dec. 1. He’s been a little injury prone throughout his career and didn’t live up to the hype last year. He also doesn’t hit 3-pointers, but is one of the league’s best pure scorers when clicking on all cylinders. I’m not opposed to drafting Wall, but I wouldn’t touch him before Round 5, and you have to be a little worried about his conditioning once he’s back. But if all goes well and you have room on your bench, Wall could be a second-half beast after Christmas.

Danny Granger – Granger has yet to play in the preseason as he is dealing with a left knee problem of his own. The good news is that he’s scheduled to play in the next two preseason games for the Pacers and has been able to avoid surgery on the knee. The bad news is that this is not a new injury, and was even a fairly serious issue when he played at New Mexico. You can see the details in this column. Granger is no longer an up-and-coming stud to target in Round 2, but instead a risky gamble in the middle rounds of your draft. Paul George is getting ready to take over as the man for the Pacers, but Granger’s still going to put up some gaudy numbers if healthy. A lot of the risk is removed if you can get him in Round 6, but I seriously doubt this will be the last time you read about his left knee this season.

Dwyane Wade – Wade is on the court and playing after offseason knee surgery kept him out of the Olympics over the summer, but I don’t know of an owner who drafted him who isn’t holding their breath. When healthy, Wade’s blocks and stellar production put him in the elite category, but he’s going to make owners in weekly leagues think twice every time they set a lineup, and his four-game weeks could easily turn into 2- or 3-gamers. I have owned Wade several times in the last couple years and have determined that he’s really not worth the headache. He’s still a first-round pick, but there’s enough risk there that I’m going to let someone else deal with the headaches he causes.

Stephen Curry – The yearly joke around the virtual Rotoworld water cooler is that Curry’s right ankle is made of Doritos, and I’m a little surprised we haven’t just nicknamed him ‘Cool Ranch’ by now. He is coming off surgery and my guess is those of you have owned him will let someone else take the risk this year. However, he’s on the court and looks fantastic, and will easily return first-round value if he can stay healthy. He won’t hurt you anywhere statistically and is getting better every week. The problem is the ankle. When you pull up the Rotoworld headlines, or see that Tweet that reads “Steph Curry sprains right ankle, helped to locker room,” your heart will sink. The only question is, will this be the year that doesn’t happen? He’s generally going in Round 2 or 3, and while I haven’t taken the plunge yet, I might do it before drafting season is over. Just because the payoff will be big if he can somehow stay in one piece.

Kyle Lowry – Lowry is back from his groin injury that kept him out of training camp, and appears to be related to the injury he had last season. That one led to an infection and Lowry’s fantastic season was ruined far too early. Now he’s in Toronto, where he’s been named the starter, but between the injuries and the fact that Jose Calderon is still lingering in the background, I’m not ready to go all in on him. The later you can get Lowry the better, but even if he stays healthy, I don’t see Calderon spending as much time on the bench as many other folks do. Treat Lowry like a low-end No. 1 fantasy point guard and pray that his groin injury doesn’t rear its head again this season.

Andrew Bogut – Bogut’s devastating ankle injury from last season is still keeping him very limited in training camp. He just started doing 1-of-1 training and doesn’t sound all that close to 5-of-5 scrimmaging yet. When healthy he should be an excellent source of scoring, boards and blocks, but his free throw shooting is in the Dwight Howard category of poor. I took Bogut for $3 in an auction league and I would take him in a regular draft in the late rounds just to be able to stash him on my bench.

Ricky Rubio – Rubio is coming off major knee surgery and won’t be ready until December or January. Assuming he returns on January 17, he’d miss the season’s first 35 games, available for 47 games. Do you really want to sit on an assist specialist who isn’t a good shooter until a month before the All-Star Break? I love watching Rubio and his injury saddens me, but I have no interest in drafting him this year. Would I pick him up off waivers around Christmas or New Years? Probably.

Amare Stoudemire – Stoudemire is coming off a terrible season and has already been bothered with a sore knee. Don’t forget he had microfracture surgery a few years ago, but was able to bounce back from it as quickly and effectively as any player in history. But you have to wonder when he’s going to need some maintenance done on his knees again. Maybe he’ll stay healthy, play nice with Raymond Felton and Carmelo Anthony, and put the things he learned from Hakeem Olajuwon this summer to good use. But there are enough red flags here that I’m going to let someone else take the plunge on Stoudemire this season. I actually have him ranked behind Glen Davis in Tiers, if that tells you anything.

Jeremy Lin – Linsanity is sidelined again for precautionary reasons, as he’s still not recovered from offseason knee surgery. He’s playing for a new team and coach (Houston/Kevin McHale) and learning a new system. Sure, he’s got talent and I’m fine with owning him if he’s there late enough, but given the knee concerns and the fact that much of what happened last year still feels a little bit like a fluke, I’m not targeting him anywhere.

Derrick Rose – Rose “might” play at some point this year as he recovers from knee surgery. Then again, he might not. Yes, it’s possible he could make a late run and help your team in the playoffs (at least Chicago has a fantasy-friendly playoff schedule), but I don’t think it’s likely. He’s realistically not expected back before the All-Star Break (February) and my guess is more than 50 percent of the owners who draft Rose will drop him by Thanksgiving. In other words, I simply see no reason to draft him this season unless you play in a keeper league. And where you take him in a keeper format depends on how badly you want to try to win this year.

J.R. Smith – Smith is in a walking boot, but that may not be his biggest problem. He’s ticked off about coming off the bench (so am I) and it’s not like he’s been the most stable guy throughout the years even when he’s really happy. I still love Smith this year and am targeting him late in my drafts, as I don’t suspect his foot injury is serious. And even if he’s coming off the bench, he’ll be doing it with a chip on his shoulder and should hit a ton of threes, as long as he doesn’t land in Mike Woodson’s doghouse. But at least you don’t have to spend a high pick on him now that it doesn’t sound like he has a real chance at starting while the Knicks wait for Iman Shumpert’s return.

Andrea Bargnani – Bargnani went down on Wednesday with a calf injury. If it were any other player this might not be a big deal, but if Curry’s ankles are made of Doritos, Bargnani’s calf appears to be held together by spaghetti. I used to be one of Bargnani’s biggest supporters, but once he stopped hitting as many threes and blocking as many shots as he was supposed to, and then started getting hurt every year, I really only think of him as a guy I’ll take if he falls farther than he should. And now that his calf injury is back, memories of him lasting just 31 games last season are refreshed. It could be something minor, but if there are questions about Bargnani’s calf on draft night, let someone else deal with him.

Brandon Roy – Roy’s knee appears to be in much better shape than it was when it forced him to retire prematurely and he’s slated to start at shooting guard for the Timberwolves. And with Love out for the first month, Roy could see an even bigger role than originally expected. Do I trust him to still be playing by Thanksgiving? Not really. Do I believe he’ll be able to play in back-to-back games for most of the season? No way. But am I willing to draft him late in case he happens to become one of the greatest comeback stories ever? Yes, yes I am. Roy’s another risky guy, but you can get him late enough that you can simply cut him if it doesn’t work out.

Steve "Dr. A" Alexander is the senior editor for the NBA for Rotoworld.com and a contributor to NBCSports.com. The 2016-17 NBA season marks (at least) his 15th year of covering fantasy hoops for Rotoworld. Follow him on Twitter - @Docktora.Email :Steve Alexander