Suzana Camargo, a research scientist at the
International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI),
uses atmospheric data to create experimental hurricane forecasts
that can be used to identify year-to-year variations, and ultimately
develop tools to predict hurricane landfall probabilities.

The birth of a hurricane requires the right combination of ocean water
temperature and wind patterns.
Suzana Camargo, a research scientist at the International Research
Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) uses this atmospheric data
to create experimental hurricane forecasts that can be used to identify
year-to-year variations, and ultimately develop tools to predict
seasonal hurricane landfall probabilities.

In her work, Camargo uses a combination of IRI
dynamical climate models to create low-resolution outputs and look
for possible storms. “Our
forecasts differ from other models because they are based on both
dynamical and statistical data,” she said. Camargo examines
48 different scenarios for each season using different atmospheric
and oceanic conditions.

As many as twelve Atlantic hurricanes can develop over a season,
with an average of six Atlantic hurricanes per season, but few
make landfall. One of Camargo’s goals is to improve and develop
forecasts that give coastal communities in hurricane zones more
time to prepare.

“Tropical cyclones are a major hazard for many societies,
resulting all too often in catastrophic losses of life and property,” says
Steve Zebiak, Executive Director of IRI. “Suzana's important
work is helping us to understand better what we can and cannot
predict about the changing risks of cyclone related hazards, and
to develop forecast tools and products that will enable better
management of those risks. It is a key contribution to the IRI
research agenda.”

“Watching the Florida hits in this hurricane
season stresses the importance of better understanding and preparedness
for hurricanes and that can only be done through extensive research,” said
Camargo. “I follow the storms closely, checking on the
National Hurricane Center website (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/)
many times a day. I would love to experience a hurricane in a
safe environment, as long as it is on firm land, not on airplane
or ship.”

Hurricanes, like other weather phenomena, are affected by changes
in sea surface temperature that result from El Niño/Southern
Oscillation (ENSO), and this is an area of study for Camargo. “During
an El Niño event, hurricanes in the Atlantic tend to be
fewer in number,” Camargo said.

Camargo forecasts cover five regions: Western
North Pacific, Eastern North Pacific, North Atlantic, South Pacific,
and the Australian Region. The general name for these storms is
"tropical cyclones." When they are weak, they are called tropical
storms; when stronger they have different names according to the
region where they exist: hurricanes (North Atlantic and Eastern
North Pacific), typhoons (Western North Pacific), cyclones (other
regions). Tropical cyclones in these areas are mainly generated
during the late summer and fall season, roughly June to November
in the Northern Hemisphere and December to March in the Southern
Hemisphere.

Camargo, a native of Brazil, received her Ph.D. in plasma physics
from the Munich Technical University, but became fascinated with
climate models while working at IRI. “My research is related
to improving these forecasts by gaining a better understanding
of the climatic quantities that influence hurricane activity.”

Camargo added, “As with any probability, there is always
an implied role of “noise”, also referred to as chaos,
which can degrade the deterministic accuracy of forecasts.”

More information:

If the climate event is in the Northeast, its known as a “hurricane;” in
the southwest Indian Ocean, its a “tropical cyclone;” in
the Northwest Pacific Ocean, a “typhoon.” more regional
names http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/A1.html

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