Peace Process and US “Plan B” for Syria5
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Peace Process and US “Plan B” for Syria

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Written by Brian Betts exclusively for SouthFront

The reported leak of the CIA’s “Plan B” in the Wall Street Journal last week has had impacts on the dynamic of the ongoing Syrian Conflict. While the specific weapons have yet to be named, the implicit promise of weapons, particularly “anti-air,” is clear. If the peace talks fail, the US and its allies will begin arming the “rebel” factions with “much more lethal weaponry.” Plan B is, essentially, an incentive for escalated conflict.

The Standard of Lethality

To understand what “much more lethal” means in context with the Syrian Conflict, weaponry that has already been delivered to anti-government forces should be considered as a benchmark. In 2014, a CIA-backed program delivered 500 BGM-71 Tube-launched, Optically tracked, Wire-guided (TOW) air-to-ground missiles (ATGM) to anti-government forces. The weapons came from Saudi stockpiles and were delivered via the Turkish border.

The BGM-71 set a very lethal standard, against which the CIA has gauged its next move. On the first day of mass field implementation, anti-government factions reported 24 Syrian Army tanks and armored vehicles destroyed by TOW missiles. This trend has continued in the intervening years, with additional ammo being smuggled through the Turkish border. This reality has made matters in northern theaters more complex, denying the Syrian Army any bold strategy for armor employment and costing them critical resources such as rescue helicopters.

The reason why the BGM-71 has proven so lethal to the Syrian armored and mechanized forces is the specific variant that has been supplied. The BGM-71E, which has been seen in videos posted by all manner of criminal gangs, is noteworthy because it’s designed to defeat reactive armor with tandem warheads. This capability renders the Syrian Army T-72s, some equipped with reactive armor, vulnerable to its warhead.

Much More Lethal

The “Plan B” weapons increase lethality, specifically in the anti-air arena. Reports have already been made of Turkish efforts to smuggle small quantities of the FIM-92 “Stinger” Man-Portable Air-Defense System (MANPADS) in to Syria. Any “Plan B” escalation would likely include a higher volume of these shoulder-fired missiles.

The Stinger missile is lethal to low flying aircraft, and because of this, the widespread introduction of Stinger missiles to the Syrian conflict would further erode the Syrian Army’s fighting capability. Syrian Aérospatiale Gazelle scout helicopters, which have enjoyed particular success tracking terrorist convoys in the vast Syrian Desert, would be at greater risk. Russian attack helicopters and gunships would be vulnerable as well. Low flying Syrian Mig-21s would be within firing range during bombing runs, as would Russian Su-25s.

In turn, the decreased viability of low-level air operations might force Syria to rely more heavily on Russian aerial bombing efforts with higher-flying Su-34 and Su-24 tactical bombers.

Most disturbing, however, is the revelation that many terrorist factions will immediately get their hands on these weapons through trade or conquest, with or against respectively, anti-government forces. Both groups have proven capable of firing on civilians, and would likely use the weapons on non-combatants, such as rescue helicopters. This decreases the survivability of civilians and Syrian Army troops wounded in hard-to-reach regions, such as the mountains of Latakia.

The promise of “much more lethal” weaponry for belligerent forces in Syria will likely curtail the peace process. In addition to weakening the military strength of Assad’s forces and escalating demands for Russian intervention, the prolific presence of surface-to-air missiles in Syria would eventually impact US air missions as well, when ISIS and allied gangs inevitably gain possession of any weapon deployed.

Russia could reply by giving the Kurds a bunch of strela missiles. More directly, they could give the SAA a lot more TOS systems to light up any areas the TOWs originate from. Their smoke trails would make effective beacons.

klseklse

Good idea. Russia and SAA should support Kurds to control the lands bordering Turkey so that Turkey wouldn’t able to support terrorists.

swenguzzi

Wait until these terrorists make their way into western Europe with such weapons and bring down an airliner during takeoff or approach to a major airport. See how well that is going to go down.

Russia should go all in and end this once and for all.Stop this nonsense political solution hogwash.Why not making up Voluntary Brigades ? That worked well for Novorossia.There are enough out there willing to join and kill the terrorist scum,even more than would come to fight in Novorossia.So there is no need to rely on russian consripts.Where is the Father of all Bombs ? Stop making these incremental steps.Get the big stuff out.Make not any longer a meatgrinder , make it a woodchopper and feed it with these pigs.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see more retro-fitted Russian planes return the the Syrian ToO, in the foreseeable future.

I’m also convinced H.E. Mr. Putin didn’t expect any real results to come out of the Geneva talks, and, like he did expect the takfiri terrorists to do, regroup Russian forces and yield other weaponry to this volatile mix, in order to keep the upper hand. The Russian forces are not in it for fun, they’re there to see to it that the SAA [and its allies] end this conflict successfully.

But one has to keep in mind; this can only be done/achieved when local militias and tribes are utilized to defend their territory, as the SAA [and its allies] can’t be stretched beyond their limits.

The FUKUS war machine may rely on often backward and bizarre tricks, but in doing so, they are utterly predictable.

Frank Kelly

Talking about a Plan B is a bit ridiculous seeing as there is a complete absence of a Plan A