Mosul advance slows amid ISIL resistance

By JEREMY HERB

10/19/2016 08:30 AM EDT

With Zach Montellaro and Connor O’Brien

THE BATTLE FOR MOSUL — EVIDENCE OF A ‘DIFFICULT FIGHT’ AHEAD: The Washington Post’s Kareem Fahim and Loveday Morris have more here on the Islamic State’s efforts to slow, if not stop, the Iraqi offensive into Mosul: “To defend a few miles of unremarkable road in northern Iraq, flanked by farmland, the occasional factory and flyspeck hamlets and villages, the Islamic State militants seemed to spare no effort. They loaded a Volkswagen with explosives and secreted remote-detonated bombs into the road’s median strip. They burned tires and dug large tunnels in houses, to obscure their positions. They placed crude mortar launchers on the road’s shoulder, pointed in the direction of any approaching force.

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“The arsenal ultimately failed to protect the militants as thousands of Kurdish soldiers known as peshmerga swept down the road Monday as part of a broader offensive to drive the militants out of Mosul. But it seemed to slow down the action Tuesday, tying up a large contingent of Iraqi soldiers for the better part of the day as they tried to clear the road and surrounding villages of booby traps, a few wearying feet at a time. There were still 12 grueling miles left to travel before reaching the city’s outskirts.”

— CAPTURED VILLAGES SHOW ISIL DRIVEN UNDERGROUND, writes The Associated Press: “This farming village east of Mosul was turned into a bunker during more than two years of Islamic State rule: A network of tunnels and cramped living quarters betrays an extremist group increasingly forced to operate underground by a punishing air campaign and mounting territorial losses.

“Wrested from IS control on the first day of the offensive to retake Iraq's second-largest city, Badana offers a glimpse of the battle ahead. Above ground, walls were shredded by airstrikes and artillery, homes were stained black with soot and the buildings still standing had been looted. Below ground, bags of fresh vegetables lay on the floor of a cooking area and a bowl of eggs sat beside a crude stove, suggesting the fighters managed to maintain supply lines up until days before their defeat.”

— U.S. EXPECTS ISIL TO WIELD CHEMICAL WEAPONS, reports Reuters’ Phil Stewart and Idrees Ali: “The United States expects Islamic State to use crude chemical weapons as it tries to repel an Iraqi-led offensive on the city of Mosul, U.S. officials say, although adding that the group's technical ability to develop such weapons is highly limited. U.S. forces have begun to regularly collect shell fragments to test for possible chemical agents, given Islamic State's use of mustard agent in the months before Monday's launch of the Mosul offensive, one official said.”

— TENSIONS ARISE AMONG ALLIED FACTIONS, reports The Wall Street Journal’s Ben Kesling and Paul Sonne: “Tensions emerged Tuesday among allied forces fighting to retake the northern Iraqi city of Mosul from Islamic State, a day after the offensive was launched. The long-awaited assault on the extremist group’s last major Iraqi stronghold began Monday with rapid advances, including by a contingent of Kurdish fighters who stormed nine nearby villages in the first phase of the effort to retake Iraq’s second-largest city. The pace slowed Tuesday as the Kurdish fighters, known as Peshmerga, consolidated their gains and prepared for the next push.

“They also criticized their partners in the Iraqi military. ‘The Iraqi army hasn’t moved even a bit,’ said the Peshmerga’s Gen. Sihad Barzani, brother of Iraqi Kurdistan’s president, Masoud Barzani. ‘The plan was us taking villages, and then the Iraqi army takes some of them. They didn’t.’”

— OBAMA SAYS LIBERATING MOSUL WOULD BE A ‘MILESTONE,’ via POLITICO’s Brent Griffiths: “President Barack Obama says driving Islamic State fighters out of the Iraqi city of Mosul would be a ‘key milestone’ in his plan to defeat the Islamic State. ‘I’m confident we can succeed, although it will be a tough fight and a difficult fight,’ Obama told reporters on Tuesday at a joint press conference with Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi.”

MEANWHILE, IN SYRIA — ASSAD’S WIFE SAYS SHE TURNED DOWN ASYLUM OFFER, via the BBC: “Syria's first lady has said she rejected a deal to offer her safe passage out of the war-torn nation in order to stay by her husband's side. Asma al-Assad revealed she believed those offering her a new home were trying to undermine her husband Bashar's presidency. In an interview with Russian state-backed television, she refused to say who made the offer. Mrs Assad also thanked Russia for its ‘noble efforts’ supporting the regime.”

HAPPENING TODAY — DEBATE NIGHT, ROUND THREE: Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump debate for the last time tonight as the election is less than three weeks away. Tonight’s presidential debate, moderated by Chris Wallace of Fox News, includes “foreign hot spots” as one of the six topics, so foreign policy issues like Mosul, Aleppo, the Islamic State and more are likely to come up.

— IF THINK TANKS RAN THE DEBATES: Several think tanks have posted foreign policy and national security-related questions for the third presidential debate, including the Brookings Institution and the Center for a New American Security. Among the familiar themes: Military force in Syria (a topic the Bipartisan Policy Center also highlighted), Russian aggression in Ukraine and the Baltics and the terrorism fight. Our vote for a foreign policy topic that hasn’t been addressed at the first two debates: the war in Afghanistan.

— MILITARY VOTERS STICK BY TRUMP,via Military Times’ Leo Shane III and George R. Altman: “The recent scandals surrounding Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump haven’t hurt his support among military members, according to the latest Military Times/Institute for Veterans and Military Families poll out this week. In fact, he appears to be the clear favorite among military voters now. But allegations of sexual assault and misogyny against the GOP business mogul are hurting his image among military women and eroding his support among military officers, according to poll results.”

LATER THIS WEEK — CARTER HEADS TO TURKEY AT THE START OF A WEEKLONG FOREIGN TRIP: Defense Secretary Ash Carter heads to Turkey on Friday, where he’s slated to meet with Turkish leaders and discuss the campaign in Iraq and Syria, according to the Pentagon. Carter also has a scheduled stop in the United Arab Emirates on the Middle Eastern leg of the trip. His visit to Turkey is the first since the failed coup attempt against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, which led to accusations that the U.S. military was involved in the coup (and even prompted a denial from Obama).

On Monday, Carter flies to Paris for the latest meeting of defense ministers in the coalition fighting the Islamic State and then stops in Brussels for a NATO defense ministerial, where the Pentagon says he plans a “major speech on the NATO alliance and its future.”

FROM THE WIKILEAKS EMAILS — THREE RETIRED MILITARY LEADERS ON CLINTON’S VP SHORTLIST: One of the latest emails from the WikiLeaks trove of Clinton Campaign Chairman John Podesta’s hacked emails includes what appears to be an early list of possible vice presidential candidates. Written by Podesta in March, the email includes three retired military officers: former U.S. commander in Afghanistan retired Gen. John Allen, former Special Operations Command chief retired Adm. Bill McRaven and former Joint Chiefs Chairman retired Adm. Mike Mullen. They’re on a list of more than three-dozen names that also includes both Bill and Melinda Gates and former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg.

None, of course, became Clinton’s pick, and the one former military official who appeared at the 11th hour on the VP short list, retired Adm. James Stavridis, wasn’t listed at all. The military leaders also took vastly different approaches to this year’s campaign: Allen spoke for Clinton at the Democratic National Convention in Philadelphia, while Mullen then criticized both Allen and Trump adviser retired Lt. Gen. Mike Flynn for jumping into the political fray. Still, it’s worth noting that these three leaders are likely to be considered for top spots in any new Clinton administration.

FALSE ALARM MAY HAVE TRIGGERED NAVY SHIP’S DEFENSES, reports Military Times’ Andrew Tilghman: “After several days of investigation, the U.S. Navy believes an urgent warning about an incoming missile aboard a destroyer Saturday night may have been a false alarm, defense officials said Tuesday. The guided-missile destroyer Mason, underway in the Red Sea off the coast of Yemen, detected a ‘possible inbound missile,’ prompting the ship’s commander to activate the missile defense system and launch interceptor missiles, defense officials said.”

— HOUTHIS BACK YEMEN CEASE-FIRE, via Reuters: “Yemen's Houthi-run administration welcomed a 72-hour ceasefire starting on Wednesday intended to allow aid to reach areas cut off by months of fighting and in dire humanitarian need. In its first statement on the truce, a governing council composed of the Iranian-allied Houthi group and powerful local allies demanded a Saudi-backed Arab coalition end military attacks and lift curbs on air, sea and land transport.”

SPEED READ

— The Islamic State is repositioning both rhetorically and physically after losing ground: The New York Times

— Russia’s military accuses the U.S.-led coalition of an airstrike on a Syrian village in Aleppo province that killed six civilians:

— Turkish police kill a suspected Islamic State militant believed to be planning a suicide attack in the capital: AP

— An Iranian-American businessman is sentenced to 10 years in prison in Iran: NYT

— The Justice Department has kept at least 74 opinions, memos and letters on national security classified: The Washington Post

— Czech police arrest a Russian in connection with U.S. hacking attacks: Reuters

About The Author

Jeremy Herb is a defense reporter for POLITICO Pro. Prior to joining POLITICO, he covered defense and national security for The Hill, and covered the Minnesota congressional delegation and 2012 Republican presidential primary as a Washington correspondent for the Minneapolis Star Tribune.

Herb is a native of San Jose, Calif. He graduated with a bachelor’s degree from Santa Clara University and received a master’s degree from Columbia University’s Graduate School of Journalism.