Nick Thompson, cook at the Black Tomato restaurant in Ottawa, works in the kitchen wearing a "wake up Ontario" slogan before the restaurant closes its doors due to a minimum wage increase.Jean Levac/Ottawa Citizen / Justin Tang/THE CANADIAN PRESS

By Aleksandra Sagan, THE CANADIAN PRESS

Ontario shed some 59,300 part-time jobs in January, the same month the province hiked minimum wage about 20% to $14 an hour — but experts say it may be too soon to know how much the two are correlated.

The province shed 50,900 jobs total from December 2017, according to the Statistics Canada report.

It gained approximately 8,500 full-time positions but lost roughly 59,300 part-time gigs, according to data provided by the agency, which noted the figures are rounded.

That means there was 3.4 per cent or 46,100 fewer part-time posts in January 2018 than the same time the previous year.

Some economists said it’s possible Ontario’s minimum wage increase played a role in those declines, but noted it’s important not to read too much into one month of data.

The province hiked minimum wage by $2.40 per hour to $14 per hour at the beginning of the year, a move some economists warned could result in mass job losses as employers look to reduce costs.

Overall, economists are divided on how minimum wage increases play out. Some research has suggested a reduction in hours or jobs follow mandated wage bumps, while other studies suggest no long-term connection between wage increases and dips in employment rates.

The 59,000 figure is a “whopping” one, said Matthieu Arseneau, senior economist at National Bank Financial Markets, in a note.

It “may be a sign of adjustments made by corporations coping with a minimum wage surge,” he said, noting young people ages 15 to 24 lost 24,000 part-time positions.

However, economists also pointed to possible connections between Ontario’s minimum wage and Canada’s stronger average wage growth of 3.3% in January. It’s the highest year-over-year increase since July 2015 when it rose 3.32%. The same increase — 3.31% — happened in March 2016 and November 2015.

“One of the positives in today’s release was the fact that wage growth picked up,” said Craig Alexander, chief economist at the Conference Board of Canada.

“Now part of that might be reflecting the increase in minimum wages in Ontario because that increase in minimum wage is impacting more than 20 per cent of all the workers in Ontario.”

Protesters gather outside a Tim Hortons location in Peterborough, Ont. on Wednesday January 10, 2018 in response to some franchisees scaling back benefits in response to a provincial minimum wage increase. (Clifford Skarstedt/Postmedia Network)

In the province, average hourly wage rates for permanent employees in January rose 3.19% from the same time last year.

While that is lower than the national number, the dollar amount of $27.83 in Ontario is higher than for all of Canada at $27.46 for January, said Gordon Song, an analyst with Statistics Canada, in an email.

Ontario’s mandatory minimum hourly rate is set for another bump in January 2019, when it will rise to $15.

related linksB.C. to raise minimum wage to $15.20 per hour by June 2021 following moves by Alberta and Ontario

The province of British Columbia announced Thursday it too plans to raise rates for its lowest paid employees over several years.

It aims to reach at least $15.20 by June 2021. Its current minimum wage is set at $11.35 and will rise every June, starting this year when it moves to $12.65, until it reaches at least $15.20.

Some have already criticized the increase as being too fast, noting it may be difficult for small business owners to adapt to the increased labour costs.

( the pc leadership hopefuls gave there positions and ideas on this issue at yesterdays debate )

No $15 min wage in 2019, Tory leadership hopefuls say in first debate

By Canadian Press. Published on Feb 16, 2018 4:00am

TORONTO — A Progressive Conservative government in Ontario would not implement a planned minimum wage increase next year, no matter who ends up winning the race to lead the party through the spring election.

In an hour-long debate Thursday, the four candidates vying for the top Tory post were united in their opposition to a key Liberal government promise to raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour in 2019.

The forum was the first chance for former Tory legislator Christine Elliott, lawyer Caroline Mulroney, former city councillor Doug Ford, and parental rights advocate Tanya Granic Allen to present themselves as the best choice to replace former leader Patrick Brown, who resigned last month amid sexual misconduct allegations.

The candidates provided few concrete details on their plans for the province but were clear about their intention to scrap the wage hike, saying the Liberal plan would hurt the province’s economy, particularly small businesses, which have complained about the January increase from $11.60 to $14 per hour.

Ford, the brother of notorious late Toronto mayor Rob Ford, called the wage hike a “tax grab” for Premier Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals and said he would instead eliminate provincial income tax for those making minimum wage.

“That will benefit the companies, it will benefit the person leaving their office or their factory at the end of the day,” he said.

Mulroney, daughter of former prime minister Brian Mulroney, said she would increase the minimum wage by 25 cents over four years, while Elliott also said she would phase in a hike gradually.

“The minimum wage law is a classic example of the way the Liberals have been governing this province, making decisions that help them in the short term — in this case their electoral chances — and hurt the rest of us in the long term,” Caroline Mulroney said. “Small businesses are suffering. It was too much too soon.”

Wynne responded to the criticism of the wage hike in a video posted on Twitter prior to her town hall event in Windsor, Ont., saying raising the minimum wage to $15 an hour will make the strong Ontario economy even stronger.

“We know Conservatives say over and over again that it’s too much, it’s too fast and today they made it clear that a Conservative government would deny that raise,” Wynne said in the video.

“But we know that when they say not now, what they’re really saying is not ever, because they want to put wealthy business owners ahead of working people. That’s not okay.”

While all four candidates said they opposed a carbon tax to replace the Liberals’ current cap and trade, none of them offered specifics on how they planned to make up for the estimated $4 billion from the tax that was to fund a 22 per cent income tax cut and other key election promises in the party’s platform.

Instead, all four suggested savings could be found by cutting waste from the Liberal provincial budget.

“In a $141 billion dollar budget, do you think we can find two or three per cent (in savings)?” Ford said.

Mulroney said she would deliver her own fully costed plan if she’s elected leader.

“This government needs to learn to do more with less,” she said.

Elliott, who recently served as the province’s health ombudsman, pitched herself as the experienced candidate best positioned to win the spring election.

“I know Kathleen Wynne. I’ve debated against her before,” she said, noting later that with an election in less than 100 days, the party could not afford a “leader-in-training.”

Granic Allen, an outspoken critic of the Liberals’ updated sex-education curriculum, pulled no punches during the debate, attacking Brown as a “corrupt leader” who alienated grassroots members with social conservative views and “left the party in tatters.”

Brown’s abrupt resignation in late January threw the Progressive Conservatives into turmoil, prompting a hastily called leadership race that will see a new leader in place by March 10. Brown has vehemently denied the allegations and has vowed to clear his name.

Genevieve Tellier, a political science professor at the University of Ottawa, said Thursday’s debate didn’t bring any major revelations but confirmed that the candidates appear split into two camps.

Elliott and Mulroney have positioned themselves as more moderate, centrist options, and seem to be addressing voters across the province, while Ford and Granic Allen, who lean more to the right, appeal to grassroots members, she said.

The candidates stopped short of making any detailed policy commitments, noting they would wait for further consultations on key issues, making it difficult to know where they stand, Tellier said.

“They’re cautious, they really don’t know where to go, what to target,” she said. “They are all unclear.”

In the next, and last debate, set for the end of the month, “they will have to come up with some more precise policy actions that they want to take,” she said.

But there was price collusion going on prior to that up and until Loblaws blew the whistle.

Quote:

Not to jump into a spirited debate uninvited...

No invite needed. Rational toughts are always welcome !

I understand the price fixing aspect increasing the cost artificially but they also certainly utilized the cost of wheat in increase the price when wheat was on its highs.

But even now that this is out the open, I don't believe the cost of bread or bread products is significantly less than it was even off peak and I am just basing that off my the Statscan basket of goods index.

Even with all this boring wheat talk;
Is that even the biggest cost driver in a sandwich? LOL

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