In trend terms, short-term visitor arrivals to Australia during October 2011 (503,600 movements) increased 0.7% when compared with September 2011 (500,000 movements). Currently, short-term visitor arrivals are 0.3% higher than in October 2010.

SHORT-TERM VISITOR ARRIVALS, Australia

The following table presents the top ten source countries (based on original estimates) for short-term visitor arrivals during October 2011. When trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals for October 2010 and October 2011 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded for China (21.4%). The highest percentage decrease was recorded for Japan (12.3%) followed by the United States of America (9.1%).

Short-term Visitor Arrivals, Australia - October 2011

Trend

Seasonally Adjusted

Original

Sep 11 to Oct 11

Oct 10 to Oct 11

Source countries(a)

'000

'000

'000

Trend % change

Trend % change

New Zealand

101.8

102.4

115.9

1.1

3.0

UK, CIs & IOM(b)

51.5

49.3

52.7

0.3

-4.0

China

50.1

49.4

38.1

1.3

21.4

United States of America

36.1

37.1

32.9

0.2

-9.1

Japan

28.7

28.4

28.1

1.3

-12.3

Singapore

27.8

27.5

25.7

0.6

2.8

Malaysia

21.7

20.9

16.7

0.3

-1.3

Korea(c)

17.1

16.9

16.2

1.7

-8.1

Germany

12.7

12.8

15.2

0.1

-5.4

Hong Kong

13.6

13.8

12.6

-0.7

-7.0

(a) Top 10 source countries based on original estimates.

(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.

(c) Includes North Korea and South Korea.

'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term visitor arrivals are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term visitor arrivals are presented:

1 The November 2011 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.8% higher than October 2011.
2 The November 2011 seasonally adjusted estimate of visitor arrivals is 2.8% lower than October 2011.

WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STVA TREND ESTIMATES, Australia

The figure of 2.8% for visitor arrivals represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for visitor arrivals over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term visitor arrival trend estimates, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES

In trend terms, short-term resident departures from Australia during October 2011 (656,200 movements) decreased 0.6% when compared with September 2011 (660,000 movements). Currently, short-term resident departures are 8.6% higher than in October 2010.

SHORT-TERM RESIDENT DEPARTURES, Australia

The following table presents the top ten destination countries (based on original estimates) for short-term resident departures during October 2011. When trend estimates for short-term resident departures for October 2010 and October 2011 were compared, the highest percentage increase was recorded for Thailand (29.0%). The next highest percentage increase was recorded for Indonesia (15.8%) followed by the United States of America (12.7%). The only percentage decreases were recorded for Hong Kong (1.5%) and Malaysia (1.1%).

Short-term Resident Departures, Australia - October 2011

Trend

Seasonally Adjusted

Original

Sep 11 to Oct 11

Oct 10 to Oct 11

Destination countries(a)

'000

'000

'000

Trend % change

Trend % change

New Zealand

97.9

101.7

93.2

1.2

11.4

Indonesia

74.9

76.4

84.2

0.1

15.8

United States of America

67.2

66.5

63.1

-1.3

12.7

Thailand

48.1

47.0

50.9

-1.1

29.0

China

30.5

31.9

37.4

-

4.7

Fiji

28.0

27.5

32.2

-1.6

4.7

UK, CIs & IOM(b)

39.1

36.6

24.7

-2.1

3.2

Singapore

24.1

23.9

23.5

0.7

10.0

Hong Kong

18.4

19.2

22.0

0.4

-1.5

Malaysia

21.0

21.1

21.9

-0.6

-1.1

- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)

(a) Top 10 destination countries based on original estimates.

(b) United Kingdom, Channel Islands and Isle of Man.

'What if'....? Future scenarios

The most recent trend estimates for short-term resident departures are likely to be revised when the next month's seasonally adjusted estimates become available. To assist in analysing these movement trends, the approximate effects of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimate of short-term resident departures are presented:

1 The November 2011 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 3.0% higher than October 2011.
2 The November 2011 seasonally adjusted estimate of resident departures is 3.0% lower than October 2011.

WHAT IF...? REVISIONS TO STRD TREND ESTIMATES, Australia

The figure of 3.0% for resident departures represents the average absolute monthly percentage change for resident departures over the last ten years. For further information on the effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on short-term resident departure trend estimates, see paragraph 29 of the Explanatory Notes.

There were 12,350 people who stated they were permanent (settler) arrivals to Australia during October 2011, an increase of 31.8% compared with October 2010 (9,370 movements). People born in New Zealand accounted for the largest proportion of settlers (16.1%), followed by people born in UK,CIs & IOM (12.6%), China (10.5%) and India (8.1%).

There were 6,290 Australian residents who stated their intention was to depart permanently from Australia during October 2011, a decrease of 0.2% compared with October 2010 (6,300 movements). However, analysis shows that the majority of those with an intention of permanently departing, return to Australia within the following year. For example, in the financial year 2006-07, out of the 72,100 Australian residents who stated they were departing permanently, only 14,370 spent 12 months or more overseas.

STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

The above presentation of movements in estimates does not take into account whether the change in movement is statistically significant. Care should be taken when interpreting the impact of numeric and/or percentage change. Please see the Standard Errors section of this issue for more detail.

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