Politics blog + Recession | The Guardianhttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog+business/recession
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We can’t blame David Cameron if the eurozone stumbles into recession againhttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2014/nov/17/david-cameron-eurozone-recession-warning-not-his-fault-michael-white
As PM warns of economic red lights, it’s fair to say UK’s tax and spending policies are his fault, but not long-term global problems<p>It’s a rare treat to hear the phrase “<a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/nov/16/david-cameron-third-eurozone-recession-g20-warning" title="">Writing in the Guardian, David Cameron</a> says” on the morning’s news bulletins before being told that the prime minister is warning us sandal-wearing polenta eaters of flashing red lights ahead for the global economy.</p><p>That’s not so good, but it is mostly true, as <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2014/nov/16/david-cameron-economics-warning-lights-analysis" title="">Larry Elliott explains in his analysis of Cameron’s statement</a>.</p> <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2014/nov/17/david-cameron-eurozone-recession-warning-not-his-fault-michael-white">Continue reading...</a>David CameronPoliticsGeorge OsborneEd MilibandEconomic recoveryEconomicsBusinessEconomic policyEconomic growth (GDP)Financial crisisWorld newsBankingFinancial sectorRecessionEurozoneMon, 17 Nov 2014 10:34:06 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2014/nov/17/david-cameron-eurozone-recession-warning-not-his-fault-michael-whitePhotograph: Chris Radburn/PADavid Cameron has warned that the global economy is in danger of sliding into another recession. Photograph: Chris Radburn/PAPhotograph: Chris Radburn/PADavid Cameron has warned that the global economy is in danger of sliding into another recession. Photograph: Chris Radburn/PAMichael White2014-11-17T10:34:06ZHollande's way through the double-dip and Dutch debaclehttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2012/apr/26/hollande-double-dip-dutch-debacle
The disappointing economic news showed the risks of austerity. But the French Socialist holds the promise of an alternative<p>In a television studio at dawn someone remarked &quot;most people aren't as interested in the Leveson inquiry as the media is. Most people are far more worried about the economy.&quot; Dead right, I thought. So I was delighted to see that the grown-up papers, the FT, Guardian and Indy, led today's editions on the alarming news that the UK economy shrank by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2012.</p><p>After the 0.3% contraction in the last quarter of 2011 (Q4) it appeared to confirm the long-feared double-dip recession, the first since the oil crisis of 1975. Arggh! As the economic writers rushed to point out, that makes the 2007-08 bank bust the start of the longest recession for 100 years. Britain's output is still 4.3% off its 2006 peak. Arggh again.</p> <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2012/apr/26/hollande-double-dip-dutch-debacle">Continue reading...</a>Economic policyFrançois HollandePoliticsWorld newsGeorge OsborneRecessionEconomicsBusinessAusterityThu, 26 Apr 2012 11:17:07 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2012/apr/26/hollande-double-dip-dutch-debacleGao Jing/ Gao Jing/Xinhua Press/CorbisVive le Fran&ccedil;ois: Hollande shows that Osborne's is not the only way Photograph: Gao Jing/ Gao Jing/Xinhua Press/CorbisGao Jing/ Gao Jing/Xinhua Press/CorbisVive le Fran&ccedil;ois: Hollande shows that Osborne's is not the only way Photograph: Gao Jing/ Gao Jing/Xinhua Press/CorbisMichael White2012-04-26T11:17:07ZDid the eurozone crisis cause the double-dip recession?http://www.theguardian.com/politics/reality-check-with-polly-curtis/2012/apr/25/economicgrowth-debt-crisis
The UK is officially back in recession. Is the coalition's economic strategy to blame, or the eurozone crisis? <strong>Polly Curtis</strong>, with your help, finds out. Get in touch below the line, tweet <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/pollycurtis">@pollycurtis</a> or email <a href="mailto:polly.curtis@guardian.co.uk">polly.curtis@guardian.co.uk</a>.<p><span class="timestamp">10.13am:</span> The <a href="http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/gva/gross-domestic-product--preliminary-estimate/q1-2012/stb-q1-2012.html">Office for National Statistics published GDP figures</a> today showing that the UK is officially back in recession with negative growth of 0.2%. These are their toplines:</p><p>•&nbsp;GDP decreased by 0.2% in Q1 2012 <br />• Output of the production industries decreased by 0.4% in Q1 2012, following a decrease of 1.3% in the previous quarter <br />• Construction sector output decreased by 3% in Q1 2012, following a decrease of 0.2% in the previous quarter <br />•&nbsp;Output of the service industries increased by 0.1% in Q1 2012, following a decrease of 0.1% in the previous quarter <br />• GDP in volume terms is flat in Q1 2012, when compared with Q1 2011 </p><p> There's very little you can say about that either way unless the ONS says that exports have collapsed. The construction industry is not a eurozone issue. If the eurozone had done better other sectors might have grown. If it's construction it's not really the austerity measures either – it's not teachers losing jobs. </p><p>Look at table B1 (available <a href="http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/gva/gross-domestic-product--preliminary-estimate/q1-2012/tsd-gdp-preliminary-estimate-q1-2012.html">here</a>) and compare 2012 Q1 with 2011 Q3<br />&nbsp;<br />GDP down 0.5%<br />Manufacturing down 0.8% - so a bit worse than the aggregate and export data do suggest some hit form the eurozone crisis<br />Construction down 3.2% - that's all domestic and due to inadequate housing and cuts in government capital spending<br />Services up 0.1% BUT<br />Government services up 0.6%<br />Distribution etc down 0.4%<br />Transport etc down 0.1%<br />Business etc down 0.1%</p><p>So private sector services down – harder to blame that on the eurozone</p><p> The composition of growth is also a blow for the chancellor who called for the economic recovery to be led by a 'march of the makers'. The recession is the result of large drops in manufacturing and construction output. While - as the chancellor has said - the crisis in the euro zone explains some of the weakness in manufacturing, the fall in construction is wholly a domestic problem, reflecting inadequate investment in housing and deep cuts in government capital spending.</p><p>Latest three months (to February) compared to the previous three months for volume of exports of goods:</p><p>• To the rest of the EU was down 1.2%</p><p> It's a very tough economic situation. It's taking longer than anyone hoped to recover from the biggest debt crisis of our lifetime – even after the recent fall in unemployment. But over many years this country built up massive debts, which we are having to pay off. It's made much harder when so much of the rest of Europe is in recession or heading into it. The one thing that would make the situation even worse would be to abandon our credible plan and deliberately add more borrowing and even more debt.</p><p> UK recession - entirely due to 3% fall in construction output in Q1. North Sea oil decline also hurts.</p><p>The dip in activity is small but massively significant. With the government up to its eyeballs in the phone-hacking scandal and with local elections looming, the timing could hardly have been worse for David Cameron and George Osborne...</p><p>City analysts, once again caught on the hop by the dismal growth figures, will no doubt make the point that the main reason behind the 0.2% contraction in the first quarter was the performance of the construction sector, where the figures are notoriously prone to revision.</p><p>Public sector net investment [published yesterday available on page four of <a href="www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/d/psf.pdf">this</a> pdf] was cut by 25% last year. A lot of that is construction. All of the reduction in deficit last year came from cutting public investment – houses, schools, hospitals, roads. What do you expect? Of course construction spending fell. </p> <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/reality-check-with-polly-curtis/2012/apr/25/economicgrowth-debt-crisis">Continue reading...</a>Economic growth (GDP)Eurozone crisisRecessionConstruction industryBusinessEconomic policyEconomicsPublic sector cutsWed, 25 Apr 2012 09:17:23 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/reality-check-with-polly-curtis/2012/apr/25/economicgrowth-debt-crisisPublic DomainTreasury stats on public sector investmentLewis Whyld/PAGeorge Osborne's economic policies will come under scrutiny following news of a double-dip recession. Photograph: Lewis Whyld/PA WireLewis Whyld/PAGeorge Osborne's economic policies will come under scrutiny following news of sluggish GDP growth. Photograph: Lewis Whyld/PA WirePolly Curtis2012-04-25T09:17:23ZThe carless young: should we feel sorry for them? Nohttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2012/feb/27/carless-young-michael-white-blog
Young people today face lots of problems that older generations didn't – but they also take many handy things for granted<p>A teenage member of my extended family asked the other day: &quot;What are you doing, Uncle Michael?&quot; &quot;I'm darning a sock,&quot; I explained benignly without going into further detail about the early austerity that my generation took for granted. My young kinswoman is a vegan who is saving the planet in her own way.</p><p>So I was delighted to read in today's Guardian that current austerity – and student tuition fees – are forcing a whole generation of students to <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2012/feb/26/economy-young-car-coach-train" title="">abandon</a> &quot;the teenage dream of passing the test and driving a car&quot; in favour of what the article calls &quot;the mixed joys of budget travel&quot; using something called a bus. That should help save the planet!</p> <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2012/feb/27/carless-young-michael-white-blog">Continue reading...</a>PoliticsUK newsMotoringMoneyYoung peopleSocietyRecessionEconomicsBusinessHousehold billsConsumer affairsTransport policyTransportRoad transportMon, 27 Feb 2012 11:03:46 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2012/feb/27/carless-young-michael-white-blogDon Mcphee/taken from picture libraryUsing a bus: it's cheaper and greener. Photograph: Don Mcphee/taken from picture libraryDon Mcphee/taken from picture libraryUsing a bus: it's cheaper and greener. Photograph: Don Mcphee/taken from picture libraryMichael White2012-02-27T11:03:46ZIs Ed Balls the new John Maynard Keynes as George Osborne hits trouble?http://www.theguardian.com/politics/wintour-and-watt/2011/nov/30/edballs-georgeosborne
Shadow chancellor believes his decision to follow John Maynard Keynes and oppose consensus on deficit has been vindicated<p>There are only a handful of people in Britain who think they can get away with comparing themselves to John Maynard Keynes without provoking guffaws.</p><p>Ed Balls is one of those people. In the <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/wintour-and-watt/2011/jan/25/edballs-georgeosborne">most important speech</a> in last year's Labour leadership contest, Balls drew comparisons with the father of modern macroeconomics to explain why he was opposed to Britain's two deficit reduction plans. These were: George Osborne's plan to eliminate the stuctural deficit over the course of this parliament, outlined in his <a href="http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/2010_june_budget.htm">emergency</a> budget in June 2010, and Alistair Darling's plan to halve the deficit over four years.</p><p>George Osborne was fond of saying – wrongly – that the Labour government had failed to fix the roof while the sun was shining. What he is now doing is the equivalent of ripping out the foundations of the house just as the hurricane is about to hit.</p><p>We said that the chancellor's plan was reckless, not cautious, and that he was ripping out the foundations of the house, leaving our economy not safe, but badly and deeply exposed to the growing global storm.</p><p>Ed Balls ended up yesterday arguing that we are borrowing too much and that the way to borrow less is to borrow more...I promise you, this is never going to work politically. Ever.</p><p>Here in Britain we can start to be cautiously optimistic about the economic situation. GDP growth in the second quarter surpassed expectations at 1.1%, with all but 0.2% of that coming from the private sector.</p><p>Employment is growing at the fastest pace for over a decade, confounding predictions that the economy cannot generate private sector jobs. Manufacturing is picking up and exports are recovering thanks to increasing global demand.</p><p>But of course, we must remain cautious. Inflation is proving more persistent than expected, as the Bank of England Governor explained in his letter to me this morning. The availability of credit to support business expansion is limited and needs to improve.</p><p>Despite the strength of the German economy, data for Japan and the US has been less encouraging, undoubtedly contributing to lower global confidence. And of course, the world remains concerned about sovereign debt issues at a time when our budget deficit remains the largest in the G20.</p> <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/wintour-and-watt/2011/nov/30/edballs-georgeosborne">Continue reading...</a>Ed BallsPoliticsGeorge OsborneAutumn statement 2011BusinessUK newsOffice for Budget ResponsibilityEconomic policyAlistair DarlingBudgetWinston ChurchillGordon BrownTony BlairEd MilibandDavid MilibandRecessionCoalition budget 2010Liberal-Conservative coalitionBloombergLabourLabour party leadershipWed, 30 Nov 2011 19:09:32 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/wintour-and-watt/2011/nov/30/edballs-georgeosborneMurdo Macleod/GuardianEd Balls believes his warnings about cutting the deficit have come true. Photograph: Murdo Macleod for the GuardianNicholas Watt2011-11-30T19:09:32ZGeorge Osborne has made a good political fist out of a poor hand | Michael Whitehttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2011/nov/30/george-osborne-good-political-fist
Labour's legacy and the euro crisis leave the chancellor with few options, but the coalition has not done enough to persuade voters that we are all in this together, writes <strong>Michael White</strong><p>I had been nursing a stubborn cold for weeks when I woke up yesterday with a painful shoulder. By the time I left Westminster after George Osborne's <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2011/nov/29/public-sector-george-osborne-growth" title="">gloom-laden autumn statement</a> I had also acquired a painful knee. Five more years of austerity and, to cap it all, <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/nov/30/britain-withdraws-diplomats-iran" title="">Iranian rioters</a>, whose government is so much more venal and incompetent than ours, were again attacking the British embassy.</p><p>A zeitgeist moment then. Yes, though the knee and shoulder feel better this morning, no thanks to the chancellor or the rioters. Overnight analysis of the autumn statement focuses on the coalition's <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2011/nov/29/public-sector-george-osborne-growth" title="">renewed squeeze</a> on public sector jobs, pay and pensions – as well as the impact of lower tax credits on the lives and children of the working poor. The outlook looks bleak, uncertain or both for most people.</p> <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2011/nov/30/george-osborne-good-political-fist">Continue reading...</a>George OsborneAutumn statement 2011RecessionPoliticsEconomicsBudgetUK newsPublic sector cutsWed, 30 Nov 2011 12:34:44 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2011/nov/30/george-osborne-good-political-fistAndrew Winning/ReutersStrikers in London: the coalition has not done enough to persuade voters that the better off are pulling their weight in the collective sacrifice. Photograph: Andrew Winning/ReutersAndrew Winning/ReutersStrikers in London: the coalition has not done enough to persuade voters that the better off are pulling their weight in the collective sacrifice. Photograph: Andrew Winning/ReutersMichael White2011-11-30T12:34:44ZDavid Cameron feels for Plan B amid the economic gloom | Michael Whitehttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2011/oct/06/david-cameron-optimism-speech
PM's speech was long on optimism and skated over thin policy ice on the coalition's pond but it's better than 'can't do sogginess'<p>Home at last from the conference season, I re-read <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2011/oct/05/david-cameron-show-some-fight" title="">David Cameron's keynote speech</a> this morning and rather enjoyed it.</p><p>Yes, I realise it was <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/interactive/2011/oct/05/cameron-speech-text-analysis" title="">long on optimism</a> and rapidly skated over a lot of the thin policy ice on the coalition's pond, a weakness the Guardian's Comment is Free panel – myself included – <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/oct/05/david-cameron-conservative-party-conference-speech" title="">pointed out in its instant responses</a> on Wednesday.</p> <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2011/oct/06/david-cameron-optimism-speech">Continue reading...</a>David CameronPoliticsQuantitative easingEconomicsRecessionInterest ratesBank of EnglandBusinessConservativesConservative conference 2010Conservative conference 2011UK newsThu, 06 Oct 2011 12:11:11 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2011/oct/06/david-cameron-optimism-speechMark Makela/Zuma Press/CorbisDavid Cameron delivering his keynote speech at the Conservative party conference. Photograph: Mark Makela/Zuma Press/CorbisMark Makela/Zuma Press/CorbisDavid Cameron delivering his keynote speech at the Conservative party conference. Photograph: Mark Makela/Zuma Press/CorbisMichael White2011-10-06T12:11:11ZEconomic crisis: a time for cool heads, not conspiracy theories | Michael Whitehttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2011/sep/23/economic-crisis-cool-heads-conspiracy-theories
Britain is in acute economic difficulty – the last thing we need is talk of plots or pompous, bogus passion<p>The global economy is &quot;staring down the barrel&quot; of a second world recession, David Cameron sternly reminded eurozone leaders from the safety of Ottawa this morning. He has also <a href="http://www.number10.gov.uk/news/pm-signs-joint-letter-to-g20/" title="">signed a round robin letter</a> telling the G20 to get its finger out and sort things out at the Cannes summit in (wait for it) November.</p><p>So should it be &quot;well done, Dave&quot; or &quot;who do you think you are, matey – Gordon Brown?&quot;? A bit of both, but mainly the latter, I think – especially on a day when Peter (&quot;a better class of conspiracy theory&quot;) Oborne, the posh populist pundit, has run amok on Europe (again).</p> <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2011/sep/23/economic-crisis-cool-heads-conspiracy-theories">Continue reading...</a>Economic policyDavid CameronLiberal-Conservative coalitionPoliticsEuroRecessionEconomicsGlobal economyFri, 23 Sep 2011 11:54:40 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2011/sep/23/economic-crisis-cool-heads-conspiracy-theoriesSipa Press / Rex Features/Sipa Press / Rex FeaturesDavid Cameron says the global economy is 'staring down the barrel' of a second world recession. Photograph: Sipa Press / Rex FeaturesSipa Press / Rex Features/Sipa Press / Rex FeaturesDavid Cameron says the global economy is 'staring down the barrel' of a second world recession. Photograph: Sipa Press / Rex FeaturesMichael White2011-09-23T11:54:40ZGeorge Osborne is skating on thin ice | Michael Whitehttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2010/oct/18/george-osborne-skating-thin-ice
While I sympathise with politicians doing a difficult job for which they get little thanks, it's no excuse for foolish exaggeration, rashly raised expectations or plain porkies<p>You know my line on these matters: I sympathise with politicians doing a difficult job for which they get little thanks even when they do something well. George Osborne may be about to save the British economy – or not; it's very hard to be sure. Either way we won't all cry: &quot;Good old George!&quot;</p><p>What Osborne and his fellow toilers in the coalition can be sure of is abuse from ungrateful voters who are too busy watching reality shows on TV, defrauding insurance companies (can 40% of all claims really be fake?) or making their bodies a drain on the NHS, not least by devouring crisps, Coke and fags – as one friend put it after visiting a northern maternity unit at the weekend.</p><p><strong>Osborne</strong>: Well, both the spirit of the tax law, as well as the letter of the tax law. That is what we are asking. Of course we've got a sanction, which is …</p><p><strong>Marr</strong>: What's the sanction?</p> <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2010/oct/18/george-osborne-skating-thin-ice">Continue reading...</a>PoliticsUK newsGeorge OsborneEconomic policyTax and spendingRecessionEconomicsBusinessMon, 18 Oct 2010 10:37:55 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2010/oct/18/george-osborne-skating-thin-iceHandout/Getty ImagesGeorge Osborne on the Andrew Marr Show yesterday. Photograph: Handout/Getty ImagesHandout/Getty ImagesGeorge Osborne on The Andrew Marr Show yesterday. Photograph: Handout/Getty ImagesMichael White2010-10-18T10:37:55ZGeorge Osborne's gamble | Michael Whitehttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2010/jun/17/george-osbornes-gamble
I persist in my view that Osborne is a smart fellow but he is only 38 and he's got his L-plates on. Fingers crossed – and close to the handbrake<br /><p>George Osborne said on air a few minutes ago that the financial crisis that engulfed Britain's financial services in the summer of 2007 could have been mitigated had the new model of regulation he now proposes been in place.</p><p>Well, it's a point of view and the new chancellor is entitled to act upon it provided he keeps his fingers firmly crossed. In the Commons yesterday Alistair Darling called it a &quot;dog's breakfast,&quot; and Osborne can – and did – throw the taunt back at his predecessor. It's your mess, he said.</p> <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2010/jun/17/george-osbornes-gamble">Continue reading...</a>George OsbornePoliticsUK newsEconomic policyTax and spendingRecessionBusinessMervyn KingBank of EnglandFinancial Services Authority (FSA)Thu, 17 Jun 2010 09:57:19 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2010/jun/17/george-osbornes-gambleCarl Court/AFP/Getty ImagesMervyn King and George Osborne attend the Lord Mayor's dinner to the Bankers and Merchants of the City of London at Mansion House in London last night. Photograph: Carl Court/AFP/Getty ImagesCarl Court/AFP/Getty ImagesMervyn King and George Osborne attend the Lord Mayor's dinner to the Bankers and Merchants of the City of London at Mansion House in London last night. Photograph: Carl Court/AFP/Getty ImagesMichael White2010-06-17T09:57:19ZOffice for budget responsibility: the key data, as a spreadsheethttp://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2010/jun/14/office-budget-responsibility-report-forecasts-gdp
The Office for Budget responsibility publishes its first economic forecast today. They provide unprecedentedly detailed forecasts for the next five years - we have never seen these before<br />• <a href="#data">Get the data</a><p>The <a href="http://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk">Office for Budget Responsibility</a> (OBR) has only existed since May - but already it has caused controversy.</p><p>Set up by Chancellor George Osborne, the <a href="http://budgetresponsibility.independent.gov.uk/d/pre_budget_forecast_140610.pdf">OBR report</a> today said that Britain's annual borrowing will be more than &pound;20bn lower than first predicted at &pound;155bn, according to an independent body commissioned by the government, but growth forecasts were also slashed.</p><p>The OBR's gloomy view of the government's finances and the potential for growth are expected to spur the government to include large tax rises in the budget next week alongside deep cuts in public spending.</p> <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2010/jun/14/office-budget-responsibility-report-forecasts-gdp">Continue reading...</a>George OsborneBudgetEconomic growth (GDP)Economic policyEconomicsRecessionCredit crunchPoliticsMon, 14 Jun 2010 10:34:43 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2010/jun/14/office-budget-responsibility-report-forecasts-gdpChris Ratcliffe Pool/EPAAlan Budd, chairman of the Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR). Photograph: Chris Ratcliffe Pool/EPAChris Ratcliffe Pool/EPAAlan Budd, chairman of the Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR). Photograph: Chris Ratcliffe Pool/EPASimon Rogers2010-06-14T10:34:43ZGeneral election 2010: Who is better at running the public finances? Labour or the Conservatives?http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2010/apr/19/general-election-public-finances-labour-conservatives-ifs
The economy is the big election issue this week. Get the key data from the Institute for Fiscal Studies to compare Labour and Conservative records on the economy - and see how we compare to the rest of the world<br />• <a href="#data">Get the data</a><p>It's a big week for economic data. Inflation numbers are out tomorrow, on Wednesday we have unemployment figures and on Friday the latest GDP estimates, showing how much the economy has grown. And all in the middle of a general election campaign.</p><p>Labour has made much of its campaign out of its handling of the recession - which makes it time to see how this government's record on the public finances compares to the last time the Conservatives were in power (all with the help of our friends at <a href="http://timetric.com">Timetric</a>).</p><p>SOURCE: OECD, IFS</p><p>SOURCE: IFS</p> <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2010/apr/19/general-election-public-finances-labour-conservatives-ifs">Continue reading...</a>General election 2010UK newsBusinessPoliticsEconomicsEconomic growth (GDP)RecessionConservativesLabourInflationUnemployment and employment statisticsGordon BrownUK unemployment and employment statisticsMon, 19 Apr 2010 07:30:00 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2010/apr/19/general-election-public-finances-labour-conservatives-ifsLefteris Pitarakis/APPublic finances under scrutiny: Gordon Brown at the launch of Labour's manifesto. Photograph: Lefteris Pitarakis/APAndy Rain/EPAGordon Brown outside 10 Downing Street. Photograph: Andy Rain/EPASimon Rogers2010-04-19T07:30:00ZLord Mandelson v Kenneth Clarke – live debatehttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2010/mar/18/ken-clarke-lord-mandelson-debate
Two of the biggest beasts in the political jungle – the business secretary and his Tory shadow – slug it out in front of an audience of business leaders<p><strong>12pm</strong> <br />It's not exactly Frazier v Ali but it's the closest British politics gets to a heavyweight bout. In the red corner is Labour's veteran spinmeister Lord Mandelson, the business secretary. In the blue corner is his opposite number, the old Tory bruiser Kenneth Clarke. </p><p>The two comeback kings have been paired up in a kind pre-election sparring match by the British Chambers of Commerce. This Rumble in the Jungle takes place, not in a Kinshasa stadium, but in the more sedate surroundings of the Bafta HQ in Piccadilly. The match referee is the BBC's Jon Sopel.</p> <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2010/mar/18/ken-clarke-lord-mandelson-debate">Continue reading...</a>Kenneth ClarkePeter MandelsonRecessionPoliticsEconomic policyUK newsThu, 18 Mar 2010 12:02:00 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2010/mar/18/ken-clarke-lord-mandelson-debateMartin ArglesLord Mandelson and Ken Clarke debate policy at British Chambers of Commerce. Photograph: Martin ArglesMartin ArglesPeter Mandelson and Ken Clarke debate policy at British Chambers of Commerce Photograph: Martin ArglesMatthew Weaver2010-03-18T12:02:00ZConservatives unveil economic policies - as it happenedhttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2009/oct/06/toryconference-conservatives
Rolling coverage from Manchester as the Tories set out their policies to reform the economy<p><strong>5.08pm:</strong> <strong>Instant Summary</strong></p><p><strong>1. Labour can't accuse the Tories any more of not having any plans to cut spending.</strong> Gordon Brown is not going to be able to make that speech again mocking David Cameron for proposing to cut &pound;75bn from the deficit by raising the pint of beer in the House of Commons. The Tories have come up with proposals that are far bolder than anything we've heard from the government. You can argue about the rights and wrongs of raising the pension age early, or imposing a blanket public sector pay freeze, but you can't dismiss them as proposals that are insignificant.</p><p>Some people who are earning &pound;200,000 to &pound;250,000 a year can see a pension in the range of &pound;15,000. I think most people would think that that was excessive. Perhaps there should be a cap of, say, somewhere around &pound;50,000.</p><p>The recession was caused by the collapse of a speculative bubble driven by bankers and the finance sector. It cannot be right to single out public sector workers to pay the price of putting it right.<br /> <br />Those who did so well out of the boom should now be asked to make their fair contribution through higher tax rates for the highest earners.</p><p>The first macro point is on the scale of the package. Assume, for a moment, that Tory officials are right and it would raise about &pound;7bn a year - half a per cent of GDP - by the end of the next parliament, or &pound;23bn in total over that period.</p><p>The government's budget plans would cut borrowing by about 1% of GDP - roughly &pound;14bn - a year over the next eight years. So, assuming that the Conservatives spend no more than Labour in other areas, you could say they are taking the government's squeeze and raising it by another half a percent of GDP a year.</p><p>Guardian welcomes Osborne's speech, but Right is more cautious</p><p>This set of deficit reduction proposals is Lib Dem Lite.</p><p>The sum total amounts to nothing more than a drop in the ocean and will not deal with the structural deficit.</p><p>The shadow chancellor has wrapped up public sector cuts, public sector pay freezes, a rise in retirement age and reduced pension rights in warm words that will ring hollow with Britain's army of public sector workers.</p><p>George Osborne has made it clear that the Tories are going to hit hard working public sector workers on low pay while preparing to line the pockets of the wealthy through income tax cuts.</p><p>Hudson Institute economist Dr Irwin Stelzer said Mr Osborne had given a &quot;bookkeeper's speech not a chancellor's speech&quot;.<br />He told the fringe meeting: &quot;There has to be more than just the presumed savings from being efficient and eliminating a few MPs.<br />&quot;There has to be a vision for Britain, a growth of attracting entrepreneurs, doing a lot more than finding this cut and that cut.&quot;<br />Mr Stelzer said Mr Hague would make a better chancellor than Mr Osborne. His remark drew prolonged applause from the audience, while Mr Hague smiled and said: &quot;I already have a job to do.&quot; </p><p>The Conservatives have made an impressive start to the week; party strategists knew their key vulnerability was the charge of lack of substance to Tory plans. With their welfare to work plan and pensions reform, they have effectively buried this weakness, whilst also looking more credible than Labour in relation to reining in public spending. </p><p>In the past, politicians have learned to their cost that honesty is not always the best policy. Voters who applaud talk of tough choices tend to howl when those choices hurt them.</p><p>The Tories today took a massive electoral gamble.</p><p>Liam Byrne MP, Labour's Chief Secretary to the Treasury responding to George Osborne's speech today said:</p><p>&quot;George Osborne appears intent on talking Britain down. We were told his speech would tell us 'everything' we needed to know about how the Tories would get the deficit down. But he lost his nerve.</p><p>Gordon Brown, I want an apology for the debt burden you have passed on to my generation.</p><p>Populus split the sample of interviewees into two: asking one half whether a Tory or a Labour Government would be more likely to make various spending cuts, and then asking the other half whether Mr Cameron or Gordon Brown would be more likely to make the cuts. On each question, Mr Cameron is ahead of his own party by between 4 and 11 points, while Mr Brown is on level pegging with or slightly behind his own party. This can make a big difference. For example, while Labour is ahead of the Tories on making cuts that protect frontline public services, by 42 to 37 per cent, Mr Cameron is ahead of Mr Brown by 45 to 42 per cent on the same question.</p><p>Similarly, Labour is ahead of the Tories by 46 to 36 per cent on &quot;spreading the burden of cuts fairly, so that the best-off bear their share too&quot;, but Mr Cameron is just ahead of Mr Brown, 43 to 42 per cent, on the same point. </p><p>It is precisely this kind of example of how savings can be found or money raised that we have been pressing Mr Osborne to provide. I'm told we will get several more, all of which will give something other than ID cards to talk about. At last.</p><p>Life expectancy at birth in UK cities ranges from 70.8 years in Glasgow City to 83.7 years in Kensington and Chelsea. The results show that Conservative plans to raise the pensionable age to 66 from 2016 will have a different impact on retirement plans in different parts of the country ...</p><p>In the London borough of Kensington and Chelsea, the average worker will lose 5.3 per cent of their retired life. This compares to 17.4 per cent in Glasgow City. In David Cameron's constituency of Witney, in West Oxfordshire, people will lose 6.8 per cent of their retired life.</p> <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2009/oct/06/toryconference-conservatives">Continue reading...</a>Conservative conference 2009Conservative conferenceConservativesEconomic policyTax and spendingKenneth ClarkeGeorge OsborneEconomicsRecessionBusinessTue, 06 Oct 2009 09:49:25 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2009/oct/06/toryconference-conservativesStefan Rousseau/PAShadow chancellor George Osborne speaks at the Conservative party conference in Manchester. Photograph: Stefan Rousseau/PAAndrew Sparrow2009-10-06T09:49:25ZWhy can't we be more like the Swedes?http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2009/sep/12/sweden-cuts-recession-conservatives-labour
The straight talking Scandinavians have a thing or two to teach our politicians when it comes to cuts<p>It might not sound like thrilling weekend reading. But anyone interested in the current debate on tax and spend should check out an <a href="http://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/Reforming_the_public_sector_in_a_crisis_An_interview_with_Swedens_former_prime_minister_2358" title="interview in McKinsey Quarterly">interview in McKinsey Quarterly</a> – the magazine of the uber-management consultancy whose political alumni include William Hague – with the former Swedish prime minister, Goran Persson.</p><p>Persson led his country through a severe recession in the 1990s which threatened to pull it apart: public debt doubled and unemployment tripled in the worst economic conditions since the 1930s – and the lessons he draws from it are stark.</p> <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2009/sep/12/sweden-cuts-recession-conservatives-labour">Continue reading...</a>LabourSwedenTax and spendingConservativesLiberal DemocratsGeorge OsborneRecessionPublic financeSocietyEuropeSat, 12 Sep 2009 11:30:25 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2009/sep/12/sweden-cuts-recession-conservatives-labourGaby Hinsliff, politics editor2009-09-12T11:30:25ZTrust the Tories to prevent a carnage of public serviceshttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2009/aug/09/blog-tories-labour-public-finances
Tories are ready to get tough to reverse 'toxic' Labour legacy, says party's candidate for Dover and Deal <br /><p>Twelve years of Labour government have shattered the public finances, wrecked our economy and increased social division. The Conservatives take no glee from this near total failure, as Lord Mandelson might have you believe. Healing the social divisions in our society and social justice are now key elements of the Conservative agenda. So, too, is a compassionate desire to rebuild our public finances and protect public services. The challenge for our party will be how to demonstrate this at a time of unique and truly daunting economic challenges.</p><p>The rise of social division in Britain is a serious concern. The gap between rich and poor has risen since 1997. Social mobility has fallen. Figures for 2008 show that the poorest 5 million households have an income of &pound;4,651 per annum; the richest &pound;38,505. The richest pay less of their income in taxes than the poorest – 34.9% against 38.7%. The poorest receive a lower proportion of benefits than when Labour came to power.</p> <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2009/aug/09/blog-tories-labour-public-finances">Continue reading...</a>ConservativesLabourRecessionDavid CameronPublic financeSat, 08 Aug 2009 23:05:14 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2009/aug/09/blog-tories-labour-public-financesCharles Elphicke<br />2009-08-08T23:05:14ZCould green shoots of recovery save Gordon Brown?http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2009/may/07/gordon-brown-green-shoots
Downing Street advisers believe an economic revival is the prime minister's best chance of survival. In reality it's his only chance<p>Amid all the gloom surrounding Gordon Brown's leadership, is all hope really lost?</p><p>I ask after looking at today's economic data.</p> <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2009/may/07/gordon-brown-green-shoots">Continue reading...</a>Economic policyRecessionPoliticsGordon BrownBusinessUK newsEconomic recoveryThu, 07 May 2009 16:36:00 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2009/may/07/gordon-brown-green-shootsToby Helm2009-05-07T16:36:00ZRecession a psychological as well as economic event, says Mandelsonhttp://www.theguardian.com/global/blog/2009/may/06/mandelson-recession-psychological
Business secretary argues that peddling despondency will harm the economy, and by implication that the Tories are trying to prolong the recession<p>Lord Mandelson did not quite say &quot;it's all in the mind&quot; when he was talking about the recession in his speech to the CBI today. But he did argue that a bit of positive thinking could make a difference.</p><p>Sometimes recession creates a sense of shared purpose. Sometimes it does the opposite, replacing the greater tolerance and optimism that often comes with economic growth with a starker and more fatalistic mindset.</p><p>A recession, in other words, is a psychological event as well as an economic one. It is an expression of our confidence to invest and spend, of our confidence in ourselves and in the future.</p><p>We will neither exit the recession as quickly as we can nor build the future strength we need if we allow pessimism to descend on us or lower our expectations of what we can achieve.</p><p>We seem to be seeing a deliberate political or media ploy to move us from recognising how severe and painful the present recession is to believing that we can never recover or be as strong again. That, indeed, the country is being run into the ground.</p> <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/global/blog/2009/may/06/mandelson-recession-psychological">Continue reading...</a>PoliticsUK newsEconomic policyRecessionBusinessPeter MandelsonConservativesWed, 06 May 2009 13:39:03 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/global/blog/2009/may/06/mandelson-recession-psychologicalAndrew Sparrow2009-05-06T13:39:03ZDarling's budget: Thatcherite, red or mildly pink?http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2009/apr/23/alistair-darling-budget-thatcherite-or-red
The chancellor has had to steer a discreet, middle course as he grapples with the awkward inheritance he received from the one man he can't blame<p>The old cliche about badly-received budgets turning out for the best (and vice versa) is worth trotting out this morning, if for no other reason than that I have not read it elsewhere.</p><p>Media coverage of the budget is mostly pretty harsh.</p> <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2009/apr/23/alistair-darling-budget-thatcherite-or-red">Continue reading...</a>BudgetAlistair DarlingPoliticsEconomic policyTax and spendingEconomic growth (GDP)RecessionBudget 2009Thu, 23 Apr 2009 11:13:34 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2009/apr/23/alistair-darling-budget-thatcherite-or-redMichael White2009-04-23T11:13:34ZVincent Cable's slideshow of economic doomhttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2009/apr/20/vincent-cable-recession-briefing
Today's briefing on the state of the economy by the Lib Dem Treasury spokesman was a sobering affair – but plenty of people wanted to hear it<p>Anyone starting to feel a twinge of optimism about the economy (like <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/apr/20/budget-alistair-darling-spending-cuts" title="">Gordon Brown</a>, perhaps?) should have been at Cowley Street this morning to listen to Vincent Cable present an off-camera briefing, complete with a PowerPoint presentation, on the state of the economy. It was a slideshow of doom.</p><p>Cable, who spoke to journalists after <a href="http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/apr/20/nick-clegg-liberal-democrat-tax-cuts" title="">Nick Clegg made his tax policy announcement</a>, said more than once that he was &quot;not entering into a forecasting competition&quot;.</p><p>I do not suggest that we are getting into the interwar period again ... But it is worth remembering that the US, when GDP fell 30%, did not recover for a decade. The British, after the first world war, had a rather similar history. That period is worth remembering because it was the last time we had this brutal combination of a banking collapse, a collapse of asset markets, I mean shares and housing, combined with a global recession. My whole training was not in forecasting, but in thinking about scenarios. At the back of our mind we need to bear in mind the possibility that things could turn out badly.</p> <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2009/apr/20/vincent-cable-recession-briefing">Continue reading...</a>PoliticsVince CableLiberal DemocratsEconomic policyRecessionCredit crunchBusinessUK newsMon, 20 Apr 2009 16:49:26 GMThttp://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2009/apr/20/vincent-cable-recession-briefingDavid Levene/GuardianVince Cable. Photograph: David LeveneDavid Levene/GuardianVince Cable. Photograph: David LeveneAndrew Sparrow2009-04-20T16:49:26Z