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NBA tanking: Would it pay off for Raptors? A look at past teams’ experiences

As the Raptors search for their first playoff berth in six seasons, or as they decide to somehow tear down what they have now in a reach for a brass ring in next June’s draft, it would be wise to see how other teams have done, what history shows.

The Cleveland Cavaliers drafted superstar LeBron James but he couldn't help them win an NBA championship. (David Cooper / TORONTO STAR FILE PHOTO)

The only sure thing about building an NBA team is that there is no sure thing, a proven fact that should serve as a cautionary tale to Raptors fans who are under the delusion that getting really bad to get really good is a surefire method.

It takes a confluence of events — good fortune, minor moves that pay major dividends, the misses from other teams, astute free-agent signings, “winning” trades — to ascend through the standings.

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And they are so intertwined, it’s impossible say any one works independently any better than the others.

The draft?

In the last 20 years, the only first overall picks to play for a championship with the team that originally drafted them are Tim Duncan in San Antonio, Allen Iverson in Philadelphia, LeBron James in Cleveland and Dwight Howard in Orlando.

Only Duncan — flanked by the likes of David Robinson, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker — managed to win.

Iverson retired without a championship, James only got two when he joined forces with Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh in Miami, and the hunt for a ring continues unanswered for Howard, who is now with his third team.

Staying bad long enough to accumulate draft picks?

The Cleveland Cavaliers today have two No. 1 picks in Kyrie Irving and Anthony Bennett, and two No. 4 picks in Tristan Thompson and Dion Waiters on their roster, and it’s folly to think they are anywhere remotely near Eastern Conference contention, let alone the NBA championship.

As the Raptors search for their first playoff berth in six seasons, or as they decide to somehow tear down what they have now in a reach for a brass ring in next June’s draft, it would be wise to see how other teams have done, what history shows.

It shows there are too many moving parts and too many variables for anyone to be the proponent of one over the other — given that gambling on one, and failing, could set a franchise up for years of additional futility.

2003 DRAFT LEGACY

One of biggest attractions with the coming 2014 NBA draft — and one of the big reasons so many teams are jockeying to have a top-five pick — is the presumed depth of talent.

It’s seen in some circles as the best draft since 2003, a year that yielded a treasure trove of talent.

How did that one pan out? A look at the past 10 seasons since that draft, in order of where the teams picked.

1. Cleveland Cavaliers, LeBron James

Made playoffs in five seasons, advanced to two conference finals, lost NBA final in 2006-07.

The Cleveland Cavaliers drafted superstar LeBron James but he couldn't help them win an NBA championship. (David Cooper / TORONTO STAR FILE PHOTO)

2. Detroit Pistons, Darko Milicic

Made playoffs six seasons, advanced to five conference finals, won NBA final in 03-04, lost NBA final in 04-05. But Milicic was a nonfactor on every team he played for.

3. Denver Nuggets, Carmelo Anthony

Made playoffs all 10 seasons, but knocked out in first round every year except 08-09 (lost in conference final).

4. Toronto Raptors, Chris Bosh

Made playoffs twice, knocked out in first round each time.

5. Miami Heat, Dwyane Wade

Made playoffs in nine of 10 seasons, made four NBA finals, winning three times.

THE TOP THREE PICKS

Top-three NBA draft picks are coveted because they might quickly turn around the fortunes of a franchise, while picks right after the lottery (clubs that made the playoffs) are deemed hardly worth it because they can go to teams in the “middle”.

Or not.

Taking the 2013 draft out of consideration because the players have yet to finish their rookie seasons, a look at the five previous drafts show that more players taken No. 15, 16, 17 have made playoff appearances than those chosen No. 1, 2 or 3.

A look at how many playoff games each player has been in since being drafted by their original team:

2012

No. 1: Anthony Davis, New Orleans

Playoff games: 0

No. 2: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Charlotte

Playoff games: 0

No. 3: Bradley Beal, Washington

Playoff games: 0

No. 15: Moe Harkless, Philadelphia

Playoff games: 0

No. 16: Royce White, Houston

Playoff games: 0

No. 17: Tyler Zeller, Dallas

Playoff games: 0

—

2011

No. 1: Kyrie Irving, Cleveland

Playoff games: 0

No. 2: Derrick Williams, Minnesota

Playoff games: 0

No. 3: Enes Kanter, Utah

Playoff games: 0

No. 15: Kawhi Leonard, Indiana

Playoff games: 35

No. 16: Nic Vucevic, Philadelphia

Playoff games: 1

No. 17: Iman Shumpert, New York

Playoff games: 13

—

2010

No. 1: John Wall, Washington

Playoff games: 0

No. 2: Evan Turner, Philadelphia

Playoff games: 18

No. 3: Derrick Favours, New Jersey

Playoff games: 0

No. 15: Larry Sanders, Milwaukee

Playoff games: 4

No. 16: Luke Babbitt, Minnesota

Playoff games: 0

No. 17: Kevin Seraphin, Chicago

Playoff games: 0

—

2009

No. 1: Blake Griffin, L.A. Clippers

Playoff games: 17

No. 2: Hasheem Thabeet, Memphis

Playoff games: 4

No. 3: James Harden, Oklahoma City

Playoff games: 49

No. 15: Austin Daye, Detroit

Playoff games: 4

No. 16: James Johnson, Chicago

Playoff games: 4

No. 17: Jrue Holiday, Philadelphia

Playoff games: 18

—

2008

No. 1: Derrick Rose, Chicago

Playoff games: 29

No. 2: Michael Beasley, Miami

Playoff games: 12

No. 3: O.J. Mayo, Minnesota

Playoff games: 20

No. 15: Robin Lopez, Phoenix

Playoff games: 6

No. 16: Marreese Speights, Philadelphia

Playoff games: 12

No. 17: Roy Hibbert, Toronto

Playoff games: 35

What do you think?

HOW THEY WERE BUILT

A look at how the current top teams in the NBA’s two conferences got to where they are, showing there is no one way that’s better or more guaranteed than another.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Indiana Pacers

2012-13: 3rd in the East, 49-32

2011-12: 3rd in the East, 42-24

2010-11: 8th in the East, 37-45

2009-10: 10th in the East, 32-50

2008-09: 9th in the East, 36-46

Highest draft picks in the last five years

Paul George, No. 10, 2010

Jerryd Bayless, No. 11, 2008

Tyler Hansbrough, No. 13, 2009

What happened:

They are the model franchise when it comes to developing their own players, having patience and getting a break here and there.

The George draft pick was inspired, they made a crucial trade to land local point guard George Hill (at a substantial cost in Kawhi Leonard), only signed one big-name free agent in David West and allowed Hibbert to develop over years despite some significant growing pains.

Their incremental growth represents one of blueprints for sustained success.

—

Miami Heat

2012-13: 66-16, 1st in the East

2011-12: 46-26, 2nd in the East

2010-11: 58-24, 2nd in the East

2009-10: 47-35, 5th in the East

2008-09: 43-39, 5th in the East

Highest draft picks in the last five years

Michael Beasley, No. 2, 2008

Arnett Moultrie, No. 27, 2012

Bojan Bogdanovic, No. 31, 2011

What happened:

They are the anti-Pacers, the anti-everything, the once-in-a-lifetime, shoot-for-the-moon organization that hit the motherlode for a number of reasons.

The Heat suffered through some tough times to clear enough cap space to sign both LeBron James and Chris Bosh to deals worth less than the NBA maximum; they parlayed lifestyle and weather and a tax-free state into a Big Three that will likely never be seen again thanks to the tightening of NBA cap rules and tax levels.

Was it worth it? Of course. Two titles won and a third played for make it worthwhile — but what happens in two years?

—

Atlanta Hawks

2012-13: 44-38, 6th in the East

2011-12: 40-26, 5th in the East

2010-11: 44-38, 5th in the East

2009-10: 53-29, 3rd in the East

2008-09: 47-35, 4th in the East

Highest draft picks in the last five years

Dennis Schroeder, No. 17, 2013

Shane Larkin, No. 18, 2013

Jeff Teague, No. 19, 2009

What happened:

The prototypical good-but-not-great team that tried the multi-star approach with Joe Johnson and Josh Smith, but could never truly get over the hump.

They haven’t drafted particularly well — they took Marvin Williams and left Chris Paul on the table in the 2005 draft — and you have to wonder how things would have turned out if they’d hit one home run in the last five or six years (they took Shelden Williams at No. 5 in the 2006 draft).

Still, being a perennial playoff team and high seed can’t be seen as a bad thing; one break here or there — a more amenable first- or second-round matchup might have been enough — and things might have worked out for the better.

—

Boston Celtics

2012-13: 41-40, 7th in the East

2011-12: 39-27, 4th in the East

2010-11: 56-26, 3rd in the East

2009-10: 50-32, 4th in the East

2008-09: 62-20, 2nd in the East

Highest draft picks in the last five years

Avery Bradley, No. 19, 2010

Lucas Noqueira, No. 16, 2013

Jared Sullinger, No. 21, 2012

What happened:

A hybrid, and an example of gambles that paid off in the short-term and that appears — given the standings today — to be well worth it.

Excellent drafting of Rajon Rondo at No. 21 in 2006, but there were no marquee free agents signed and when the Celtics went all-in on Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen through trades, they knew they were taking a short-term shot at greatness — one that worked out, for the most part.

They seem to be on a downward trend (this season’s pitiful East notwithstanding) but they’ve massaged assets enough that they don’t seem destined for the absolute bottom.

—

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Portland Trail Blazers

2012-13: 33-49, 11th in the West

2011-12: 28-38, 10th in the West

2010-11: 48-34, 6th in the West

2009-10: 50-32, 6th in the West

2008-09: 54-28, 4th in the West

Highest draft picks in the last five years

Damian Lillard, No. 6, 2012

C.J. McCollum, No. 10, 2013

Meyers Leonard, No. 11, 2012

What happened:

They’ve grown and fallen and grown again, and are proof positive that sometimes a big hit in the draft and a couple of tweaks can turn a franchise around.

It took time for LaMarcus Aldridge to blossom after the 2006 draft, they captured lightning in a bottle with Brandon Roy but found a gem — and lots of teams thought he was — in Damian Lillard.

But the tweaks are just as important and a reason to think so-called minor moves can provide great benefits. They bolstered a bench with a series of under-the-radar moves that greatly improved a good team. Sometimes home runs need to be augmented with singles.

—

Oklahoma City Thunder

2012-13: 60-22, 1st in the West

2011-12: 47-19, 2nd in the West

2010-11: 55-27, 4th in the West

2009-10: 50-32, 8th in the West

2008-09: 23-59, 13th in the West

Highest draft picks

James Harden, No. 3, 2009

Russell Westbrook, No. 4, 2008

Steven Adams, No. 12, 2013

What happened:

Sometimes, the draft process works.

A huge hit with Westbrook and Harden — although reality set in and Harden had to be moved, which may become more a fact of NBA life as the new tax system kicks in fully — and the development of talent like Serge Ibaka didn’t hurt.

Kevin Durant is the engine that drives the franchise but here’s the question: What if Portland had gone a bit off the charts and taken him instead of Greg Oden? Where would they be then?

Sometimes — many times — it’s the actions of others that set a team up to succeed.

—

San Antonio Spurs

2012-13: 58-24, 2nd in the West

2011-12: 50-16, 1st in the West

2010-11: 61-21, 1st in the West

2009-10: 50-32, 7th in the West

2008-09: 54-28, 3rd in the West

Highest draft picks in the last five years

James Anderson, No. 20, 2010

George Hill, No. 26, 2008

Livio Jean-Charles, No. 28, 2013

What happened:

The gold standard. Pure and simple.

Astute drafting — Tony Parker (No. 28, 2001) and Manu Ginobili (No. 57, 1999) — along with stability in coaching and throughout the roster combined with excellent trades — Kawhi Leonard for George Hill — make the Spurs unique among the 30 NBA teams.

In a bygone era they did fail miserably and got lottery luck to get Tim Duncan (1997, No. 1 overall) but San Antonio is so much more than just that.

Can it be replicated? It hasn’t been in more than a decade, despite valiant efforts throughout the league.

—

Los Angeles Clippers

2012-13: 56-26, 4th in the West

2011-12: 40-26, 5th in the West

2010-11: 32-50, 13th in the West

2009-10: 29-53, 12th in the West

2008-09: 19-63, 14th in the West

Highest draft picks

Blake Griffin, No. 1, 2009

Eric Gordon, No. 7, 2008

Al-Farouq Aminu, No. 8, 2010

What happened:

So bad for so long, it’s impossible to suggest they knew what they were doing in all those years of blown high draft picks, which left the Clippers in the West toilet for so long.

They finally landed a great one in Blake Griffin and it started the team on the ascent — but if they don’t add Chris Paul in a trade and convince him to re-sign long term, it could very well have been, at best, a flash in the pan that paid off for a couple of years before the cycle repeated itself.

They seem secure at the moment but only because of multiple moves, more proof that the growth process is multi-pronged.

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