On the idea of traitors, there could be a traitor that knows he is a traitor, but has to survive to win. That would allow a "mafia" of 3, but not overwhelm town in one night. Probably unlikely, so 7:2:1 seems most likely. I agree that pretty much everybody is going to have a power (possibly something passive in some cases).

adnapemit wrote:There is enough people suggesting an independent that it seems almost certain.

You agree there is an independent because everyone says so, so it must be true? What do you yourself think? IGMEOY andapemit for following the pack.

Carlington – Two very agreeable posts. I don’t like this:

Carlington wrote:I think there's quite likely an independent, but I think that with a 7-2-1 split an indie with a kill seems unlikely, as a mislynch and two kills leaves us at 4-2-1 MYLO on D2, and I feel that only giving town two mislynches is not super generous.

I don’t think that’s correct, in that I don’t think 4-2-1 is necessarily MYLO. Even if we lynch town on D2, the mafia still needs to eliminate the serial killer, or the serial killer needs to eliminate the mafia. Unless you know something about the setup and night actions order that I don’t know, like which kill is processed first, I think you’re trying to talk down the threat of a possible serial killer, maybe because you’re the serial killer. FOS Carlington.

(note: I’m not really the most experienced mafia player and I am assuming that the SK needs to be last man standing, or the mafia needs to eliminate the SK to win. If I am mistaken in how this typically works please call me out on it and I will apologize and find another reason to FOS Carlington.)

crucialityfactor – Two posts with almost no content. Didn’t read the Game Setup in the opening post.

crucialityfactor wrote:Well that's a bit borning then. I guess bastardy means something different nowadays. Just in that we don't onow the roles and alignment breakdown?

I’m not sure to what you are referring. Do you find the lack of cult or lack of bastardry boring? What elements do you like to see in a game to make it fun? And what do you consider OK in a non bastard game? I would like to see more content from crucialityfactor, until then IGMEOY crucialityfactor.

Diemo- Two posts, but with the most content of anyone on my list so far. Likes cults, I would FOS him for that but I like that he questioned jimbob. He’s the only player that didn’t just stick to safe agreeable setup speculation. So I downgrade my FOS to IGMEOY Diemo.

dimochka – One post. I don’t like this:

dimochka wrote:For obvious reason, I suspect mafia to have a godfather. So cop results are helpful but should be taken with a grain of salt.

To start with, it’s not obvious to me that the mafia has a godfather (although I do think it’s highly likely) but I am flavor blind so maybe it’s flavor. What I really don’t like is that he’s posted almost no content except a warning to everyone not to trust cop results. Mafia? FOS dimochka.

emlightened – Four posts, two with no content, two with minimal content, setup speculation, gameplay question, and this:

emlightened wrote:How closely do people's roles correspond with their abilities? It may be useful later on to know if, for instance, Dr Saunders is guaranteed to have a doctor role, or if the role could correspond with some other aspect of her from the show.

Role fishing. Could be the other mafia. FOS emlightened.

freezeblade – Three posts. Setup speculation and answered a question. Oh, and responded to emlightened’s role fishing question. I can’t even find enough content to FOS him properly, so IGMEOY freezeblade.

jimbobmacdoodle – Five posts, the post count leader, and the word count leader too. Long role speculation based on the Wikipedia entry. While I appreciate the work he put in to it, I’m not sure how useful this is from someone who hasn’t watched the show. Agreed with me on the setup. A reasonable amount of content, but still all nice safe agreeable setup speculation. FOS jimbobmacdoodle.

mpolo – Three posts. Setup, setup, gameplay.

mpolo wrote:If I'm reading this right, the Town is loyal to Adelle, the LA manager, while the mafia is loyal to the Rossman corporation, but I'm not 100% sure of that. [double-checks Role-PM] And my Role PM doesn't really make that any clearer.

Hmm, if nothing in your role PM gives you any clues as to the setup, why mention your role PM at all? It seems like you just wanted to mention your role PM to appear townie. FOS mpolo.

Vote: Carlington

Reason: for being a serial killer. It would be better to lynch a serial killer today and leave the mafia for tomorrow. If we start tomorrow with 1 mafia and 1 serial killer, it will be more difficult to look for connections between players.

Player analysis time!bessie:Suspects no vanilla roles, flavour blind. Guess of 3 Mafia and one third party. Guesses regular roles for town and this makes me think that her role is pretty standard. Brings up serial killer in first post of game. Heavily suspicious of Carlington. FOS'd and IGMEOY'd everyone. She is trying to encourage discussion, probably town.

Carlington:Thinks there's an independent and a serial killer would be too many kills. I don't think the posts contained much content but something makes me think that Carlington is a non SK independent or is a cop. But as bessie said they were very agreeable so I'm not saying town just yet.

crucialityfactor: Suggests traitor and 7-2-1. Too little content for me to make any judgement.

Diemo: Suggests 7-2-1 or 6-2-1-1. Their role if they have a power is likely to be able to be used every night. Has forgotten most of the show. Also suggests a serial killer. Suggestion of 6-2-1-1 although it was merely a suggestion seems like a decision gathered from a member of scum or independent. The consistency of a 2 and 1 being the more certain of the two guesses.

Dimochka: Suggests godfather and 7-2-1 or 7-3 with 7-2-1 being more likely.Also too little content for me to judge.

emlightened:Flavour blind and suggest 3 mafia is too many and 2 vanilla mafia too weak. Also agrees independent is likely. Also is likely to have limited powers. Lack of content is a negative but could be town.

Freezeblade:For 3 mafia or 2 if significantly powered. A bit of character talk. Nothing significant for me to judge.

jimbobmacdoodle: Looks up characters for potential characters. Guesses 7-3 or 7-2-1. Suggests SK. Re-decides on 7-2-1. Read the rules a second time. I can't tell if town or not.

mpolo: 6-3-1 maybe then finally agrees on 7-2-1. Mention of role-pm being unclear would imply not independent.

Other comments:After rereading I think if there is a serial killer I would be quite surprised.I am agreeing on the 7-2-1 because the number was reach mostly independently by more people than there could possibly be scum.

mpolo wrote:If I'm reading this right, the Town is loyal to Adelle, the LA manager, while the mafia is loyal to the Rossman corporation, but I'm not 100% sure of that. [double-checks Role-PM] And my Role PM doesn't really make that any clearer.

Hmm, if nothing in your role PM gives you any clues as to the setup, why mention your role PM at all? It seems like you just wanted to mention your role PM to appear townie. FOS mpolo.

I was writing pretty "stream of consciousness" there. I had already said that my Role PM didn't make things clearer, then went back to double check and added the bracketed text. I suppose I could have deleted the line.

I am not seeing a whole lot of nefariousness in the postings to this point. I probably need to strap down and review them, but since two people just did that, I think I will wait a little while, so as not to be unduly affected by the ones we have.

Ok, Jimbob's reply makes sense. I disagree with his initial conclusion though, I think that each character has enough variability that the mod could assign alignments first and then assign abilities.

Bessie's list is pinging me a bit, especially when she says she will find another reason to FOS Carlington (your first reason is good btw). It seems like she is FoSing everyone so she can explain any vote later, allowing scum! Bessie to lynch the easiest person with deniability. FOS Bessie

Freezeblade also has no real content. IGMEOY freezeblade

In the beginning the Universe was created.This has made a lot of people very angry and been widely regarded as a bad move.--Douglas Adams

bessie wrote:crucialityfactor – Two posts with almost no content. Didn’t read the Game Setup in the opening post.

crucialityfactor wrote:Well that's a bit borning then. I guess bastardy means something different nowadays. Just in that we don't onow the roles and alignment breakdown?

I’m not sure to what you are referring. Do you find the lack of cult or lack of bastardry boring? What elements do you like to see in a game to make it fun? And what do you consider OK in a non bastard game? I would like to see more content from crucialityfactor, until then IGMEOY crucialityfactor.

I think I just had grander ideas for what the bastardry would be in this game. Especially in the dollhouse universe where who people are one moment can change the next. I get it though, not a lot of players, so you can't go too crazy with alignment swapping/role changing because the balance is too delicate. I'm sure there's more to the game than just a closed set up though, because I don't consider "closed setup" to be a bastard game. Some sort of hidden role mechanics/deception would need to be there. But we'll have to wait and see on that.

Yeah, I'm pretty bad with reading through rules. I tend to just skim, makes assumptions, and then let jimbob or someone else correct me.

Also, I don't fault you for being suspicious of everyone. You should be. And really, everyone else should be as well. I would hazard that for you an IGMEOY result would be equal to most people's 'feeling neutral'. But, it is telling to me that you are at least somewhat negative on everyone right now. You mention that you are inexperienced, which is fine, and may explain your list more. Are you searching too hard for reasons to lynch people? A bit. Are you paranoid because you don't know anyone else's alignment and don't know who to trust? Possibly. Are you trying to publicly distance yourself from everyone so you can hide who you are aligned with? Also a possibility at this point.

Diemo wrote:Bessie's list is pinging me a bit, especially when she says she will find another reason to FOS Carlington (your first reason is good btw). It seems like she is FoSing everyone so she can explain any vote later, allowing scum! Bessie to lynch the easiest person with deniability. FOS Bessie

Yes, I FOSed everyone. And if I was wrong about the setup, my FOS of Carlington would be invalid and I would need to find another reason to FOS him.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I'm glad I'm not the only one to raise their eyebrows at Bessie's reads post. She quite literally FoSed or IGMEOYed every other player, so I'm not quite sure what she's trying to achieve.

Oh, so sorry. I wasn’t aware that actually looking for scum was scummy behavior. Is this perchance a townier analysis?

...

bessie's new and improved player analysis, still in alphabetical order!

adnapemit- Very helpful posts. She is watching the show to try to get a feel for the flavor. I think that this is a lot of effort and will be helpful in trying to catch scum, and I don’t see a reason for scum to do this. She makes some good observations in her long analysis post. Town.

Carlington- A little light on content, but trying to be helpful in answering adnapemit’s question. Cautious and careful, doesn’t want to jump to any quick conclusions. Town.

crucialityfactor- Not a lot of content, but trying to contribute to the discussion. He didn’t read the rules, but I think that is more likely an indication he is town. Scum would have read the opening post more carefully. Town.

Diemo- He made a very good first post where he presented an alternate speculation on the setup 6-2-1-1, scum probably would have just gone along with what everyone else was saying. And I like that he questioned jimbobmacdoodle. I think it is very townie of him to apply some early pressure and try to draw out participation from players. Town.

dimochka- Not a lot except for his very sensible warning not to trust cop results. And he offered some information about his role by volunteering that he is on jimbob’s list. I doubt scum would stick their necks out like that. Town.

emlightened- Flavor blind, but trying to contribute to the discussion. Some setup and role speculation. I like that she is encouraging everyone to participate by asking about their powers. Town.

freezeblade- He hasn’t posted much, but this is entirely consistent with his D1 meta, so I would not consider lack of content a reason to suspect freezeblade. He answered emlightened’s role/power question, so townie points there, and answered a question from crucialityfactor. I don’t think scum would be trying to be helpful. Town.

jimbobmacdoodle- Just from his long character summary, I am leaning strongly town. He put a lot of time into the post and is obviously trying to be helpful. He has also contributed to the setup discussion and has been open minded to considering other’s opinions. If he were scum, I would expect him to try to steer opinion, not follow it. Town.

mpolo- I always have trouble reading mpolo on D1. I am a little uneasy that he mentioned his role PM in his first post, but no one else shares my concerns so I will consider it a null tell. I do like that he has been helpful in trying to answer questions about possible third party roles. Town.

Hmm. It seems like the mod forgot to include any scum roles in this game. FOS Sabrar for running a game with only town roles.

Unvote

Vote: No Lynch

Note: Thank you mpolo and crucialityfactor for answering my questions. I don’t have time right now for a proper reply to your posts, but I’ll reply to you and to any other page 2 content when I get home tonight.

Indeed, you are correct. This game does largely hinge on players using the available information to build cases one way or another. A skilful manipulator of information can use it selectively to make other players seem towny or scummy and to shift the narrative as desired. This is in large part the point of the game of Mafia.Calling everyone town or everyone scum, however, doesn't help much. This is because both cases are trivially and necessarily untrue. Certainly everyone is worthy of suspicion, especially early on, and scumhunting isn't scummy, but it's a bit disingenuous to reduce Diemo's point to something that simple.

To expand on the above a little by paraphrasing someone else: if all your reads are "town", you're doing it wrong - there must be scum. Conversely, if you have way more scum reads than there can be scum in the game, you're doing it wrong. The most useful reads list is possibly the one with the largest differentiation between towniest and scummiest. I'm off to a concert so likely won't post before the morning, but I might. bessie's defensiveness in response to jimbob et. al. has reduced her towniness a little in my estimation, but maybe not much as IIRC she's always a little aggressive D1?

bessie wrote::arrow: bessie's new and improved player analysis, still in alphabetical order!

I greatly appreciate the effort you put into your response to jimbob.Although done jokingly, I found it help to provide an alternate perspective to your thoughts.

Carlington wrote:Calling everyone town or everyone scum, however, doesn't help much

Only if they don't provide reasoning with it. It they say one thing but end up at an unexpected result it can be extremely helpful.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I'm glad I'm not the only one to raise their eyebrows at Bessie's reads post. She quite literally FoSed or IGMEOYed every other player, so I'm not quite sure what she's trying to achieve.

'Don't worry, it's just life-support letting us know of its limitations.' replied Topher. 'Soon we'll need to shut down most of the functions for a little while to preserve our power. You can go now and catch some sleep if you like, I'll handle it.'

Deadline is set at Monday, 8pm UTC (~3.5 days from now). Please send me your night-actions (if you have any) before the end of the day!

Carlington wrote:Calling everyone town or everyone scum, however, doesn't help much. This is because both cases are trivially and necessarily untrue.

I agree, but if you read my first post on this page carefully, you’ll see I didn’t call everyone scum. I FOSed or IGMEOYed everyone, but I only accused three people of being scum: you, dimochka, and emlightened. And three is the exact number that most people have speculated to be the number of anti-town in this game. What a bizarre coincidence.

Carlington wrote: but it's a bit disingenuous to reduce Diemo's point to something that simple.

Wait, what? I think you mean jimbobmacdoodle. I wonder why you made this mistake. Was it something in my exchange with Diemo that has you distracted? Perhaps it was that I accused you of being a serial killer because of your “error” in analyzing the possible setup, and Diemo’s comment that I was correct in my analysis? Why would you be so fixated on me accusing you of being a serial killer? Oh, wait, you caught your mistake and made another post to correct it here

Carlington wrote: bessie's defensiveness in response to jimbob et. al. has reduced her towniness a little in my estimation

where you also doubled down on your dismissal of my analysis posts.

Carlington wrote:To expand on the above a little by paraphrasing someone else: if all your reads are "town", you're doing it wrong - there must be scum. Conversely, if you have way more scum reads than there can be scum in the game, you're doing it wrong. The most useful reads list is possibly the one with the largest differentiation between towniest and scummiest.

Nope, you still didn’t read my posts carefully, or did you? adnapemit made a list where all her reads are neutral-townie, why not make a dismissive remark about her post too? Is it because she said this about you

adnapemit wrote:I don't think the posts contained much content but something makes me think that Carlington is a non SK independent or is a cop.

and not this?

bessie wrote: I think you’re trying to talk down the threat of a possible serial killer, maybe because you’re the serial killer. FOS Carlington.

OK...This game has gone on for almost four real life days. I am the only one that has voted. Diemo is the only other player to even FOS/IGMEOY anyone. Someone has to make an effort to get people talking. If not, we will have ten people doing this:

freezeblade wrote:What real content can we have at this point besides "gut feelings" and setup spec?D1 sucks. Nothing is concrete, it's all wibbly wobbly and fuzzy.

freezeblade, why are you so against trying to generate content on D1? Yes, D1 is tough. Yes, we will probably mislynch. But if no one talks or votes we won’t even be able to analyze the lynch and we will have another D1.

So who else responded to me?

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I also don't quite get why she simultaneously says it's likely that there's a godfather yet calls dimochka out for saying the same thing.

Hey, another guy that didn’t read my post carefully, or did he?

bessie wrote:dimochka – One post. I don’t like this:

dimochka wrote:For obvious reason, I suspect mafia to have a godfather. So cop results are helpful but should be taken with a grain of salt.

To start with, it’s not obvious to me that the mafia has a godfather (although I do think it’s highly likely) but I am flavor blind so maybe it’s flavor. What I really don’t like is that he’s posted almost no content except a warning to everyone not to trust cop results. Mafia? FOS dimochka.

How is it obvious mafia has a godfather? And out of my entire long post, why did you comment specifically on only this one point? What do you think about dimochka’s cop comment?

crucialityfactor, I’m not really a newbie, but I feel like one a lot of the time, because I don’t play often and I tend to choose games with simple setups. And I have more than once misunderstood a role or even misread my own role PM. I skimmed some old games to see if the normal win condition for serial killer was last man standing because in the one game where I was serial killer (Doctor Who Mafia), my win condition was three successful kills. (And in that game, I misread my role PM and thought I was town, I didn’t even realize I had a kill because I didn’t know what a Weeping Angel was, and I got scared away from flavor heavy and complex games for a while).

crucialityfactor wrote: Are you searching too hard for reasons to lynch people? A bit. Are you paranoid because you don't know anyone else's alignment and don't know who to trust? Possibly. Are you trying to publicly distance yourself from everyone so you can hide who you are aligned with? Also a possibility at this point.

Well, I haven’t seen anyone else vote yet, random or serious, or even hint that they might possibly vote. And I’m the one that usually doesn’t vote on D1.

mpolo wrote:I am not seeing a whole lot of nefariousness in the postings to this point.

I agree. This is the most cordial mafia game I have ever played.

adnapemit wrote:I greatly appreciate the effort you put into your response to jimbob.Although done jokingly, I found it help to provide an alternate perspective to your thoughts.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:I also don't quite get why she simultaneously says it's likely that there's a godfather yet calls dimochka out for saying the same thing.

Hey, another guy that didn’t read my post carefully, or did he?

bessie wrote:dimochka – One post. I don’t like this:

dimochka wrote:For obvious reason, I suspect mafia to have a godfather. So cop results are helpful but should be taken with a grain of salt.

To start with, it’s not obvious to me that the mafia has a godfather (although I do think it’s highly likely) but I am flavor blind so maybe it’s flavor. What I really don’t like is that he’s posted almost no content except a warning to everyone not to trust cop results. Mafia? FOS dimochka.

How is it obvious mafia has a godfather? And out of my entire long post, why did you comment specifically on only this one point? What do you think about dimochka’s cop comment?

I did read the comment about a godfather in full, and I was trying to figure out if you were calling out dimochka for suspecting there's a godfather or claiming that there's an obvious reason for one. Based on your response, I'm going with the latter now, which is less of an issue. If you'd responded differently, I'd have put it down as scummy.

As to why I didn't comment on anything else, I didn't have anything else that stood out to me particularly that I felt I needed to comment on immediately. I'll likely talk about it more when I have more time (i.e. Sunday). I was writing the post whilst standing on the bus on the way home from work, so didn't exactly have a huge amount of time then, nor do I now.

On the note of the cop comment, I think that in any game where there's a reasonable chance of fake results for a cop (e.g. due to a godfather) we need to not blindly believe a cop result 100%, at least for a negative (i.e. town) result. I've already been stung in one game (Secret Santa 2015) where I completely believed a cop result on a godfather. On the other hand, I'm not saying we should ignore them at all, just be wary. In particular, scum results will almost certainly be correct. I believe any Millers should claim D1, so that we don't have to waste cop results. I doubt that scum will risk fake-claiming Miller when there's a reasonable chance of there being one. For the record I think both godfather and Miller fit well within the flavour that I read.

I'm not terribly comfortable with "No Lynch" as a vote target on Day 1. No Lynch this early tends to favor scum. Bessie has probably been around long enough to know them, which makes it a little bit suspicious. I don't want to turn this into a huge witch-hunt for people who vote "No Lynch", but something had to be said about it.

No Lynch is pretty much guaranteed to be a bad idea on D1; the only possible way for it to be the ideal path is if everyone had a scum list like Bessie's second one.

It feels like she's getting at everyone's posts, and is particularly trying to see if Carlington's an SK. Generally I'd say she's one of the townier players, overall.

Due to how little content is being posted by most players, I'm tempted to ask for a town-scum list from everyone, so that we have more to work off. I don't know how effective they are generally though, due to only having seen them in the last Secret Santa game.

██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████"Therefore it is in the interests not only of public safety but also public sanity if the buttered toast on cats idea is scrapped, to be replaced by a monorail powered by cats smeared with chicken tikka masala floating above a rail made from white shag pile carpet."

I think bessie's just trying to get us all talking, and it's working, which is good for town. I kiiiiinda wish she'd stop haranguing me about being an SK for a miscalculation I made, but I can see that discussing the matter is actually bringing people out of the woodwork, so if that's what it takes then by all means.Bessie, you skipped over an important part of one of my posts - the bit where I talked about manipulating the narrative of the game. That was the main thrust of that post, in a way. If you can control the narrative in a game, you can command the swing of opinion to a surprising extent and essentially push the game wherever you like. That's what makes scum so dangerous - having access to more complete information gives them access to more tools for shifting the narrative. This idea can work even for something as simple as raising the suggestion that there could be a cult - I have seen this very thing lead to a majority of players assuming there was a cult in the game, all from the mere mention.The reason I brought all this up was because while I thought your all-town-reads post was flippant (I didn't think you were serious, give me a little credit please), I also thought it was a poor response to jimbob (and to Diemo, who made the same point separately, to my confusion). They were both pointing out that you used FOS and IGMEOY for everyone in the game - for me and I suspect for jimbob and Diemo, those terms are both applied to people considered mildly or moderately scummy, kind of a half or quarter of a vote almost, or as a second-place scum award. I think that you might be using them differently, is that the case? Otherwise, I stand by my point and say that calling everyone moderately scummy is poor scumhunting, good scumhunting requires hunting town as well.

95% of no-lynch votes are perpetrated by non-town members. I have a feeling that this is to keep us talking, but I can't let players think that NL on day 1, (or really most of the time minus a deathy), Is acceptable practice.

Belial wrote:I am not even in the same country code as "the mood for this shit."

So, this has been covered but obviously bessie's no lynch plan is scummy as shit (I remember someone talking about it in a previous game but basically it is pretty much always scum who suggest no lynch). Care to explain it before we lynch you, bessie?

Alright, reading posts since my last post. It would really amuse me if freezeblade is scum again .

Ok, I read bessie's post properly this time, and that is just a joke, right? And I was all set to lynch bessie as well. But Carlington is right in that calling everyone scum/town is unhelpful. Heh, fine, you answered that.

Ok, I am definately moving bessie to the town side. She has made some real good points.

Oh, FFS, feezeblade. That is pretty clearly a joke.

Vote: freezeblade

For both not providing content, active lurking when asked for content, and voting for someone for a stupid reason.

In the beginning the Universe was created.This has made a lot of people very angry and been widely regarded as a bad move.--Douglas Adams

mpolo wrote:I'm not terribly comfortable with "No Lynch" as a vote target on Day 1. No Lynch this early tends to favor scum. Bessie has probably been around long enough to know them, which makes it a little bit suspicious. I don't want to turn this into a huge witch-hunt for people who vote "No Lynch", but something had to be said about it.

Wow yes, it would be just awful to end the day with No Lynch. If only there was something you could do to prevent this from happening. I can’t think of anything off the top of my head, but give me a minute. Hmm...there must be something...

freezeblade wrote:vote: bessie

Hey,that’s it!

Diemo wrote:So, this has been covered but obviously bessie's no lynch plan is scummy as shit (I remember someone talking about it in a previous game but basically it is pretty much always scum who suggest no lynch). Care to explain it before we lynch you, bessie?

Alright, reading posts since my last post. It would really amuse me if freezeblade is scum again .

Ok, I read bessie's post properly this time, and that is just a joke, right? And I was all set to lynch bessie as well. But Carlington is right in that calling everyone scum/town is unhelpful. Heh, fine, you answered that.

To start with, let me assure you my vote was indeed serious. And I intended to keep it there until at least one other person (I suspected it would be freezeblade) voted, neither of which happened by the time I left for work in the morning. I’m still concerned about the lack of voting (and even posting for that matter).

Unvote

We’re still at no lynch.

Sabrar wrote:11. A tied vote at day end will result in No Lynch in all cases.

Vote: mpolo

For being concerned about a possible No Lynch, having ability to try to modify the situation, and still doing nothing about it.

Still at no lynch. Someone else better vote this weekend too. Hopefully dimochka. He’s had like one post.

emlightened wrote: I'm tempted to ask for a town-scum list from everyone, so that we have more to work off.

This is always a good idea, I will work on this!

Proper responses to everyone else later. I had an extra exhausting day at work today.

I really don't think I was "refusing" to vote, just that I was not convinced that bessie in particular was scum for a tactic that in general is scummy. I should have some more time tomorrow (I got stuck covering two "events" that the organizers couldn't handle today, so have been out the whole day.)

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:On the note of the cop comment, I think that in any game where there's a reasonable chance of fake results for a cop (e.g. due to a godfather) we need to not blindly believe a cop result 100%, at least for a negative (i.e. town) result. I've already been stung in one game (Secret Santa 2015) where I completely believed a cop result on a godfather. On the other hand, I'm not saying we should ignore them at all, just be wary. In particular, scum results will almost certainly be correct. I believe any Millers should claim D1, so that we don't have to waste cop results. I doubt that scum will risk fake-claiming Miller when there's a reasonable chance of there being one. For the record I think both godfather and Miller fit well within the flavour that I read.

jimbobmacdoodle, I’m a bit confused about your remarks. What do you mean by scum results will almost certainly be correct?

emlightened wrote:Due to how little content is being posted by most players, I'm tempted to ask for a town-scum list from everyone, so that we have more to work off. I don't know how effective they are generally though, due to only having seen them in the last Secret Santa game.

emlightened, I like scum-to-town lists with no groupings because it forces you to make a judgment on everyone, even if it’s only in relation to everyone else. I can have a neutral read on everyone, but if I have to make a list, someone will be scummiest neutral and someone will be towniest neutral. So how about you post a list, and throw in a few reads too?

Carlington wrote:I think bessie's just trying to get us all talking, and it's working, which is good for town. I kiiiiinda wish she'd stop haranguing me about being an SK for a miscalculation I made, but I can see that discussing the matter is actually bringing people out of the woodwork, so if that's what it takes then by all means.

Well, I was initially haranguing on you being the serial killer for the miscalculation you made. Now I’m haranguing on you for your second mistake in attributing jimbobmacdoodle’s remark to Diemo, and for being dismissive of my two analysis lists when you didn’t read them carefully.

Carlington wrote:The reason I brought all this up was because while I thought your all-town-reads post was flippant (I didn't think you were serious, give me a little credit please), I also thought it was a poor response to jimbob (and to Diemo, who made the same point separately, to my confusion). They were both pointing out that you used FOS and IGMEOY for everyone in the game - for me and I suspect for jimbob and Diemo, those terms are both applied to people considered mildly or moderately scummy, kind of a half or quarter of a vote almost, or as a second-place scum award. I think that you might be using them differently, is that the case? Otherwise, I stand by my point and say that calling everyone moderately scummy is poor scumhunting, good scumhunting requires hunting town as well.

Why do you think I am being flippant? And I didn’t call everyone moderately scummy. I implied a strong scum read on three of you. As for reads, how about you share some reads, and give us an ordered list too?

Diemo wrote:I'm not seeing the argument against mpolo? Is it just because he has little content? Or because he refused to vote?

bessie, you are seriously not helping yourself by insisting that the vote for NL was serious. Why do you think that NL is better than lynching a lurker say?

Also paging dimochka! Where are youuuuuu?

I explained why my vote was serious. Because I seriously think it’s wrong if only one person in a game of ten people makes a single vote on D1, and that vote determines the lynch. I don’t think a vote of NL is better than lynching a lurker. But really, ending D1 with a single vote? I already explained I intended to move my vote if someone else voted.

My argument against mpolo is that he’s managed to make six posts with almost no content. dimochka only needed one post to contribute almost nothing to the game.

Can we get a prod on dimochka?

Back to lurkers, the problem is that you don’t know if it is scumminess, meta, or real life issues that’s keeping them from posting. I’m willing to give everyone the benefit of the doubt that it’s real life, because I’ve used that excuse myself, and it’s been the truth. But it can go too far, like Secret Santa 2015. There were three players that didn’t make a single post on D2, and I think that there were some RL issues (and holiday season) but two of them were scum and town’s reluctance to lynch the lurkers may have cost them the game. As for the meta argument, it’s a sad fact that the most active posters are sometimes the players mislynched D1, and night killed for their activity. Then you can end up with two scum who look townie because they contribute and three town who look scummy because they have almost no content to analyze.

This leads me back to my argument about why I don’t like this:

freezeblade wrote:What real content can we have at this point besides "gut feelings" and setup spec?D1 sucks. Nothing is concrete, it's all wibbly wobbly and fuzzy.

freezeblade seems to have adopted this policy that nothing useful comes out of D1 so he’s not even going to try. I went after town freezeblade for this in Draculafia too. What puzzles me is that I’m not really sure what changed his attitude about D1, because if I remember correctly, he posted walls of text in verse on D1 of Shakespeare Mafia, and he was the SK. So I’ll just stick by what I’ve said in other games. Someone may be town, but refusing to contribute and discouraging content from others is anti-town gameplay. And even if you’re town, if you’re not going to contribute you’re not helping catch scum so you’re not big loss.

@bessie: I didn't think it was worth making the post if nobody else does it, as I don't know if they're generally useful. I'll post one now, and then do an analysis (expect it late tomorrow, I've got family down) and post another based on the analysis, to see how my gut feelings compare to it.

Also, I've been spending too much time on PyPoke, so sorry about that. I should be here more during the night phase over there.

██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████"Therefore it is in the interests not only of public safety but also public sanity if the buttered toast on cats idea is scrapped, to be replaced by a monorail powered by cats smeared with chicken tikka masala floating above a rail made from white shag pile carpet."

This is the post I was planning to make a while ago and forgot but had saved in a notepad file.

Carlington wrote:...I think that with a 7-2-1 split an indie with a kill seems unlikely, as a mislynch and two kills leaves us at 4-2-1 MYLO on D2

That makes sense to me but at the same time two mislynches and two kills going through hitting town specifically is unlikely in my opinion. If we're playing that badly, we deserve to lose.However, it sounds to me like carlington is a lot more confident about this than he should be (in my opinion). possible indie.

@Bessie - I didn't say that it's definitely in game, I said it's obvious to suspect that given the setup. This flavor is all about double agents or people who appear on one side but are really on the other. So I want to make sure people are aware of this. I have zero knowledge of godfathers and it does not in any way relate to my role (wine wine wine)

Bessie's FoS of mpolo makes actually makes sense to me. There was little reason to bring that up.

What worries me is Bessie literally finding a reason to attack everyone no matter how trivial. More so because I want to make sure that people don't follow suit (on possibly a smaller scale).

-----------------

Ok now updated post (and it should go without saying I'm anti NL):

Bessie is in my opinion making too much noise to be scum, and that was a gutsy move to essentially find a way to suspect everyone. I just hope that everyone doesn't start doing this. Also her NL vote was clearly a joke. She's close to the top of my town list.

Carlington is my main suspect but as I mentioned he's more likely indie than mafia imo, and I don't like focusing on indies D1

Adnapemit - don't agree with some of the reads, but nothing jumps out as being overly cautious. Probably town.

mpolo - opposite of adnapemit, seems to be overly cautious without much content. neutral leaning scum.

Freezeblade - neutral. Scummy if it were some random player, but it is actually within his meta to be somewhat unhelpful D1. @Freezeblade - can you give us a scum to town list? Whom, other than bessie, do you suspect?

Diemo - Nothing jumps out at me at all and I like the staunch decision on bessie. townish

Jimbob - lots of content, a lot of it focused on flavor, which could be helpful (it was for me in my last game). Interesting how he retracted his suspicion of bessie about my godfather post, seems too easy. neutral for now.

O.K. I guess my first priority after dinner is to give this game some attention. Right now most of the posting is how scummy I am for being "reserved", and the only answer to that is to provide some content.

emlightened wrote:@bessie: I didn't think it was worth making the post if nobody else does it, as I don't know if they're generally useful.

emlightened- Anything you post is useful. My list feels blurry too, and I keep shifting it around. But sometimes it’s better to post what you are thinking so it’s out there. You can change your mind and make another post later, and someone will probably call you scummy for it. I used to post a lot less because I wanted to make sure all my thoughts were clearly and carefully presented in nice grammatically correct sentences, and I look back on those games and regret that I didn’t post more often. So I have a personal goal of making at least one post every 36 hours (and I don’t always make it) and I try not to worry about creating a work of art every time. And yes, all the typos and grammatical errors in my posts really annoy me. If you’re town and are night killed, we have your lists and we can try to figure out who thought you were a threat. If you revise your list and someone starts a wagon on you for it, your lynch would still be useful because we can analyze the wagon the next day.

dimochka wrote:@Bessie - I didn't say that it's definitely in game, I said it's obvious to suspect that given the setup. This flavor is all about double agents or people who appear on one side but are really on the other. So I want to make sure people are aware of this. I have zero knowledge of godfathers and it does not in any way relate to my role (wine wine wine)

I thought that this comment might be flavor related, but I’m flavor blind and the comment was a bit scummy without the wider context. Plus it was your only contribution to the game until yesterday, which was also a bit scummy. Your response was what I expected (regardless of your alignment). jimbobmacdoodles’s response (and the exchange that followed) was not what I expected and therefore much more interesting.

bessie - Town roles are prob. normal and not overly powerful; will post questions; review of players FOS everybody; facetious post with everybody townie; there were exactly 3 scum reads in the analysis; votes mpolo for not having voted yet; explanations, asks for prod; list

adnapemit - no vanilla roles; what is a serial killer?; comments on bessie's lists; freezeblade is looking scummy;

crucialityfactor - traitors; boring with no traitors; bessie looks more townie than scum

Unfortunately my PyPokemon detailed analysis took me about twice as long as I expected, leaving me with not enough time to do as thorough a job here, which means this post is going to look rather disjointed. Sorry. I'll try to get some more thoughts together on the way into work tomorrow, if I can think better then.

Post Summary:

Spoiler:

mpolo: flavour/setup speculation. Joins in with likely aim of SK (i.e. trying to hit mafia). Traitor possible, everybody likely to have a power. Plans on posting reads list later on. Doesn't like No Lynch. Explains why he didn't vote. Posts basic reads list and town to scum list. Votes freezeblade.

freezeblade: flavour/setup speculation. Role matches up with character. Votes bessie for her No Lynch vote. Stands by his vote.

emlightened: setup speculation. Expects two power mafia plus independent. Thinks power roles slightly more unusual than normal. Asks how much people's abilities line up with powers. Also doesn't like No Lynch. Suggests town to scum list. Initial town to scum list.

bessie: thinks 2 power mafia + anti-town independent. Thinks no vanilla roles. First to raise point about everybody agreeing. Seems to want to start discussion. Makes big reads post with reasons to IGMEOY or FoS everyone. Responds to some comments on her suspicious list with a "why everyone is town" list. Lengthy list of responses which I don't have time to look at in detail. Votes mpolo for his No Lynch comments without doing anything about it, whilst also complaining about others. Responds more to various comments. Encourages emlightened to post town to scum list and posts her own.

adnapemit: thinks no vanilla roles. Thinks true-neutral independents most likely. Posts a reads post which mostly devolves down to "not enough content for a reads list". Found bessie's posts helpful, if done somewhat jokingly. Wants to vote either freezeblade or mpolo. Ends up voting freezeblade. Posts town to scum list.

diemo: agrees with others on setup, but not with emlightened's odd power role suggestion. Ping from me about self-defence power-role claims. FoSses bessie for her all-FoS/IGMEOY list as it could be scum trying to give a reason to vote anybody. Finds bessie's No Lynch vote scummy, but backs off and calls her townie after re-reading. Votes freezeblade for his vote on bessie, along with active lurking. Queries bessie's mpolo vote.

Carlington: agrees with others on likely breakdown. Discusses SK's likely aim with adnapemit. Finds bessie's two reads lists unhelpful. Says bessie a little defensive, but usually aggressive D1. Stands by this later as poor scum-hunting.

On the topic of bessie's giant scum reads list, I think she has a good point against emlightened (role-fishing). I also think it's fair to call everyone out except Diemo for being agreeable (including me), and in particular to call out those with low content (crucialityfactor, freezeblade). I don't agree with her belief of Carlington being a serial killer (he might be, but I think her reasoning is extremely weak). A mistake with the setup is extremely easy to make (I've made similar errors in previous games). He was also not the only person to say that an SK is unlikely, so I think you were unduly harsh on him. On the other hand, I reckon much of what you said was an attempt to get things going. She goes on to post an all town-list instead, after mine and others' comments on her first list. I feel that I should clarify here that my raising eyebrows wasn't so much a case of calling you scum, but more finding it odd, and asking for explanation. For what it's worth, I found the all-town list less useful than the all-scum list except, apart from it showing that there are townie things to be found in everyone and that we need to consider both sides of each player. Her later vote on mpolo seems to me to be mostly about applying pressure, which is fine, but I don't really see a strong case there.

@bessie, in response to your query about my statement scum results almost certainly being correct: if a cop targets a player and gets a scum result, I think it most likely that the player targeted is scum. Not 100% guaranteed I suppose (e.g. redirection or a Miller who hasn't claimed for some reason), but extremely likely.

adnapemit's reads list on the other hand is not particularly helpful, since the majority of it can be summarised as "insufficient content". I can't tell if this is genuinely someone trying to post some useful reads (i.e. town) or someone trying to look like being helpful (i.e. scum).

@dimochka - what did you mean by this?

dimochka wrote:Interesting how he retracted his suspicion of bessie about my godfather post, seems too easy.

As noted earlier, I was trying to flush out what bessie's thought patterns were, to which she responded and I was happy with the response. As she said elsewhere, she found the fact that you found it "obvious" that there was a godfather suspicious, not that you thought it likely that there was one. The fact that she agreed with you wasn't the problem, it was more that her agreement was in contradiction to her accusation, from one way of reading it. Her response makes it clear to me what she meant.

This might be the fact that it's approaching midnight here, but I'm struggling to draw any firm conclusions. Let's start with a vague town to scum list to try to help order my thoughts:

Thoughts on my top 3 scum:Carlington - seems too against bessie's play, which I think is the towniest bit of play all game, so I find his responses here odd. I don't feel like he's a serial killer necessarily, but something doesn't rub right with me, which I can't place my finger on, and after several occasions in the past where my gut has sucessfully identified scum, I'm going this way as my top scum. I plan on reviewing this first tomorrow.freezeblade - he doesn't post much D1, as noted elsewhere, but his vote seemed a little opportunistic and possibly an attempt to start a wagon on a townie.crucialityfactor - low content. Hasn't really posted thoughts on anybody apart from bessie.

I had a post mostly typed up, and then my laptop decided to turn itself of. Ugh.

Updated Town-Scum list (I don't have time to rewrite the entire post, but I'll try to summarise the changes.)

Town~~~jimbobmacdoodle (His posts are detailed and bring up valid points, a bit more than bessie's)bessieadnapemitDiemoDimochkaFreezeblade (it's pretty much his standard, based off meta)Carlingtonmpolocrucialityfactor (major inactivity, and nothing helpful for town in other posts)~~~Scum

Vote: crucialityfactor

A couple in the middle might want moving around, it's still pretty blurry there. I'll try to go into detail about this tomorrow.

██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████"Therefore it is in the interests not only of public safety but also public sanity if the buttered toast on cats idea is scrapped, to be replaced by a monorail powered by cats smeared with chicken tikka masala floating above a rail made from white shag pile carpet."

A few more posts from dimochka has improved his positioning a bit but too much neutral/town opinion, feels a bit like scum trying not to draw too much attention.

As for freezeblade, I am leaving my vote there. I agree there is never much to go on with D1 but dismissing attempts to try to provide anything is worse than going around and acting overly scummy. Just because it's within his meta isn't a good reason to just ignore scummy behavior. If people just accept scummy behavior as always part of someones meta then what happens if they are actually scum?

Updated list with only a small change:Town-----adnapemitbessieemlightenedjimbobmacdoodleDiemoCarlingtondimochkacruicialityfactormpoloFreezeblade-----Scum

Quick couple of points that I picked up on my readthrough this morning:

@bessie - Why did you pick out mpolo above other people who were against No Lynch, but didn't vote, specifically emlightened? She was one of those you highlighted as possible scum in your original all FoS/IGEMOY reads list.

@emlightened - Do you have any thoughts on mpolo or Carlington? Why are they so low on your town to scum list? I'm suspicious you might have simply put them there because others have, rather than coming up with your own thoughts.

Ninja'ed by adnapemit:@adnapemit - same sort of question as to emlightened - why do you have mpolo and crucialityfactor as your second and third choices? Why do you have emlightened so high up your list?

I tend to feel reluctant to explain my reasoning sometimes because a lot of it doesn't have exact reason. I just go with what feels right. But I should really try more.

mpolo did complain about complained about bessie's no lynch vote, but hesitated to vote her.

crucialityfactor's posts contained mostly setup and then some encouragement for bessie. Somehow I read this as scum but not really as much as my list might indicate.

When I made my first list emlightened looked better in comparison to others but I reread her posts after you asked about her position, looking at her posts by themselves she should probably be between Diemo and Carlington.bessie is really the only one I would label town(other than myself). Jimbobmacdoodle and Diemo are more neutral, Carlington is positioned there because I think he is an independent the last four are who I suspect are scum with not really that much between them.

mpolo - States that he checked his Role PM, for some reason. Sort-of repeats what others have said for traitor roles. Wanting to wait after other people's analyses is fine, I guess. Feels like something has to be said about NL votes. Gives uncontroversial analysis. He's not provided a lot of actual content and has mainly repeated opinions. Also, although he's been fairly active, few of his posts have a decent amount of content. I'd put him as slightly scummy.

Carlington - Doubs SK/indie kill. Explains information manipulation and what a good town/scum llist should be. Comments on how scum can manipulate the game with Bessie. He doesn't really post much game-specific content, and although his talk about how scum could manipulate was good, it also felt slightly put off due to it being against the towniest player in the game. Neutral-slightly scummy.

Mainly I ended up putting them there, not because they felt particularly scummy, but because everybody else felt more townie (although pretty much everyone is some verity of 'neutral'). I'd also have put dimochka lower, but he was off the forums for a few days, so his semi-lurkiness seems due to irl issues.

██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████"Therefore it is in the interests not only of public safety but also public sanity if the buttered toast on cats idea is scrapped, to be replaced by a monorail powered by cats smeared with chicken tikka masala floating above a rail made from white shag pile carpet."

Thank you emlightened/adnapemit. I find it interesting the difference in the two responses. It might just be meta reasons, but it seems to me that emlightened's opinions are more thought out in comparison to adnapemit's. One of the reasons I brought this up is that I went over mpolo's posts again since bessie found him scummy enough to vote for, and to me it seems reasonable not to vote against bessie or anyone else in his shoes. I note in particular that emlightened reacted in the same sort of way as mpolo to the No Lynch vote, so I wanted to see if she found mpolo scummy because of this reaction. Her reasoning seems good and she gave does not say that it's for his anti-No Lynch post, so I'm happy with that. On the other hand, adnapemit's reasoning seems to be "he didn't vote against No Lynch when he could have, ergo he must be scum" which feels very weak and sheep-like. IGMEOY adnapemit.