Blog Visitors' CommentsCondo Search's comment..
I just drop by to say "thank you" for your excellent blog, and safe me from committing at a high price and wrong time buying. It helps me a small property hunter(with hard earning money) and others(i believed)a better inform. Thank you again...

Young Buyer's comment...
I've just graduated and started working, and I hope to own a residential property in Singapore after 2010/2011. So I'm starting to do my Singapore property research now. I have never come across such a comprehensive coverage on the Singapore property market, and I thank you for enlightening readers like me who want to know more :) Keep up the good work!

Young Expat's comment...
i am an overseas expat who moved to singapore a year ago and started looking out recently for property to buy as rentals started to rise all around me..i was advised to follow ur forum and since then have been impressed with all the wonderful tips exchanged in this portal..thanks to all the contributors.(Smart Buyer, the blogger here, would like to say many thanks to all these unsung heroes too)

Red's comment...
I think your reply give a rational explanation on my question. You are indeed a smart buyer and very knowledgeable.

Kate's comment...
This is a great blog filled with latest news, historical insights and good opinions that gives direction. Not the sitting on the fence type of 'pc' opinions. I love this blog. Please keep up the good work! You are really doing Singaporeans a big favour! Thank you!! I will keep on reading.

Phantasia's comment ...
Hi smart buyer,
Just wanna say thanks for your response to my query earlier in another post. And also for the very informative blog! Have learnt much from your postings! Thanks for sharing.

Smart Buyers, 10 reasons to waitFear that property price will go up forever? Here are 10 reasons to consider before you make that big commitment.......Posted by Smart Buyer(This post contains the 10 reasons that Smart Buyer first wrote for himself in mid 2007 when the property market was in a runaway euphoria, which he subsequently posted on this blog for all property buyers to consider. The arguments are supported by official data and illustrated with property supply and property price index graphs.)

Bad investments are made in Good Times
Looking at the subprime problem, it is definitely a bad news that will take time to filter down. The falling US$ is another problem that will hit the US economy. China and HK property and share mkt are 2 big bubbles.. Beware !!...Posted by km(This post contains km's first-person account of the 1998's property market crash and all the troubles that came with it - soaring mortgage rate, vacant properties with no available tenants, banks pressing for top-ups as property valuation dropped, ... his story has a happy ending of course. He'd share with you openly the lessons learnt.)

Solvency Worries STALK CREDIT-DERIVATIVES MARKET. They are now talking of SOLVENCY, not just LIQUIDITY issue .......it's really quite serious now....Posted by AnonymousHaving a house which has a big loan is a liability at this global trouble time.So far the market is still moving down slow due to the reason that many of the countries are injecting funds to buy part of the share of the banking market. The negative news continues to rise. The money is better leave in CPF and local banks to grow interests....Posted by Anonymous

During the 1995 -1998 period, the same scenerio arise..Many people cant get the HDB flat. There was the ballot system and it is just like "ti-kam", 1 out of 8 can get to buy. Due to this flocked system, many people, including those who are not so keen buyer also join the Q, paying $10 as a ballot fee, when they get balloted, then ......Posted by Anonymous

This market is definitely driven by greed and liquidity.I have never seen anything like it in my lifetime. Property prices goes up as fast a the stock market. This market is definitely driven by greed and liquidity in the asian market. What goes up must come down!...Posted by rob-502

Your Property Investment Decides Your Financial SuccessYour Property Investment may be the sole determinant of your financial success in life. One wrong move,......Posted by Smart Buyer (This post contains Smart Buyer's first-person account of the 1990's boom and bust, and how investment opportunities presented themselves in the market crash of 1998 and 2006.)

Monday, December 8, 2008

We can roughly said that there are some events which will likely to derail whatever efforts the world governments have done. The repercussions to the world and small city like Singapore will be very serious:

1) the financial system in the world have been broken so severely that it impairs the US and Europe economy ability to relevage and completely mute the strength of its cyclical recovery. These are major economies and the richest of the richest in the past. THis is very bad for Singapore who is totally dependent on the two sinful casinos and constructional activities to spur economic growth and jobs. Singapore do not have a motherland like HK or Sydney to fall back and we are just compliant citizens and not entreprenuers. We need the government to hold our hands.

2) as more jobs are lost (soon in millions) in major economies, it is a liquidity trap and any fiscal or interest cuts have no effects resulting in fear and people not spending or hoarding cash. More layoffs is coming to Singapore as Singaoreans will be hard hit. Worst in Singapore, people are heavy in assets and as they age and easily "kiasu" they become more conservative, lonely and withdraw, not willing to spend. They will save for fear of ill health (high hospital bills) thanks to our non-welfare state.

3) the US is now a debtor nation and owes the rest of the world more than US$2trillions. the US$ can crash and there is a real risk of a major currency crisis as investors shun dollar based assets resulting in more deflation of assets denominated in US$. Another crisis is now looming as the rise in US$ is too steep like another bubble in the making.

4) Look at China, yes mighty and GDP of 7 to 9 % growth even at this time. But they have to generate 24m jobs every year. It is a very difficult country to manage (nothing compare to managing Singapore) and how you expect a slowdown will bring jobless youth and workers there with no social problems in a billion population country? Factories after factories are closing and some places are ghost towns and white elephants. Dont forget the Chinese are smarter and sophisticated than compliant Singaporeans and their talent is unlimited. We have so much investments privately and publicly there. The repercussion is unimaginable and our country could be swamped by them and rich and educated FTs.

5) we have invested so heavily in ailing overseas banks and corporates overseas at a "rock bottom" prices for the "long term" and left with the choice of selling Power Seraya and SFI (which are jewels in Singapore) to raise cash or improve our finance. THis is a very sad state as i cant imagine that we have to tap our foreign reserves sooner or later.

6) We have not discounted the political and social or even terrorists lurking around at our door steps. Where is MAS SELAMAT? You think he just relax under a coconut tree> Such dangerous man who can outwit our world class security system, could possibly be inspired by the Mumbai attack and planning for a return in an more organised and intricate manner? We cannot rule this out. It can be a serious threat!

Our government can introduce a string of fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate property demand to help the cash rich developers preserve their cash and capital gains but we have to set priority on helping the people, the aged, sick, the national servicemen and true Singaporeans instead of investing, investing, property, property, Casinos and Casinos, F1 and F1 or FT or FT, and always wants to be the best in the world. We dont really need all these. We just hope that there is no nasty surprise to derail everything otherwise the bottom could really be unreachable in the coming years. Not trying to be pessimistic but really we dont know and it looks like a recovery will be a long long long one.

1 comments:

Anonymous
said...

Fall-offs from US$50billions fraud. This is one of the major frauds sweeping the financial system. Where is the bottom?

NEW York broker Bernard Madoff's alleged giant pyramid scheme duped some of the world's smartest investors, reports suggested, adding to questions about why the scam wasn't uncovered earlier.Evidence emerged that Madoff's alleged multibillion-dollar fraud stretched from Tokyo to Europe to top US investors, all of them apparently unaware they were being conned until the broker's arrest on Thursday.

Prosecutors allege Madoff, a decades-long veteran of Wall Street and pillar of the US financial community, confessed to losing at least $US50 billion in the so-called Ponzi scheme or pyramid fraud.

US newspapers detailed how Madoff, 70, traded on his impeccable reputation and access to exclusive country clubs to cultivate A-list investment clients, including big banks, hedge funds and individuals.

The US Securities and Exchange Commission alleges he delivered consistently strong returns by secretly using the principal from new investors to pay out to other investors. As long as he could attract new investors the alleged scheme worked.

The plot appears to have unraveled when clients asked to withdraw their principal - as they have been doing from hedge funds worldwide - only to discover Madoff's seemingly brimming coffers were empty.

The report said Union Bancaire Privee, a major asset management institution specialising in hedge funds, could be exposed to the tune of $US1 billion .

UBP refused to comment on the report, which said 90 per cent of fund management companies operating in Geneva invested in Madoff products.

Top-drawer US investors who were taken in included the former owner of the Philadelphia Eagles American football team Norman Braman, according to news reports.

Hedge funds are likely to take an especially big hit because Madoff was handling money for several companies raising money for such funds, the Journal said.

"I'm wiped out," the Journal quoted Sandra Manzke, chairman of one such company, Maxam Capital Management, as saying after reporting $US280 million in losses.The New York Times reported hedge fund advisory firm Fairfield Greenwich Group had invested $US7.5 billion ($11.17 billion).

As federal investigators poured over the books at Bernard L Madoff Investment Securities LLC, the Times highlighted the apparent lack of oversight through the years of what appears set to be Wall Street's record-sized fraud.

Despite Madoff's amazingly high and consistent returns and the fact that a relatively unknown accounting firm was doing his audits, the Securities and Exchange Commission "appears to have been completely surprised," the Times wrote.

"Despite these and other red flags, hedge fund companies kept promoting Mr Madoff's funds to other funds and individuals," the Times wrote.

The debacle has "swept up some of the most prominent and wealthy Americans, along with many people who thought they were embarking on a comfortable retirement and have now been left destitute," the Journal quoted a lawyer for another victim, Milberg LLP, as saying.

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The blogger here has been affectionately named by close allies as "Smart Buyer" but really, he's not smart. Smart Buyer just believes that being prudent is smart. That's the essence of the message of this blog and Smart Buyer hopes it'll benefit other property buyers.