Building MENA Stability in a Climate-Changed World: Defining a Transatlantic Agenda

Event Co-sponsors

Webcast Recap

Climate change can undermine stability in the Middle East and North Africa, where both the United States and Europe have critical foreign policy and security interests. The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region “is impacted by climate and resource scarcity risks now, in the medium, and in the long term,” said Nick Mabey, director and chief executive of the environmental think tank E3G, during a recent Wilson Center event on building climate resilience in MENA countries. “It’s a region that is highly vulnerable to climate change,” said Mabey, and “also incredibly vulnerable to global systems.”

Operating in a Climate-Changed World: Evolving Risks in the MENA Region

In pursuing transformative policies in MENA, we need “to recognize that we are operating in a climate-changed world,” said Sherri Goodman, a senior research fellow with the Wilson Center. Goodman, also a former defense official, said that we need preventative defense measures that anticipate and mitigate exacerbated risks to avoid insecurity driven by food, water, and energy scarcities. “The transition to a more energy-secure and more diversified region, I think, is one of the most important ways that we can invest and seek advantages,” she said. Rather than focusing on the threats, this is an opportunity to “use our climate awareness [and] our ability to innovate.”

Engineering Resilience

Countries can’t “grow their way to resilience,” said Mabey. E3G’s research in Egypt and Tunisia shows that the MENA region will need more than money to avoid climate-induced instability. Instead, deliberate interventions can build stability and “improve resilience in a way we can observe,” he said. The question is, “how do you deliver some of the clever ideas that are easy to come up with on paper, but quite hard to do in practice?”

The European Investment Bank (EIB) is focusing on practical projects to enhance climate resilience in MENA, said Carlota Cenalmor, who is EIB’s deputy head of office and senior institutional advisor. For example, the EIB’s Economic Resilience Initiative, which is supported by EU member states, mobilizes financial support for projects that improve infrastructure, strengthen the private sector, encourage job growth, and address migration issues.

“In order to make a change in terms of climate… the project cycle is crucial,” said Cenalmor. In addition to allocating funds, EIB works with engineers to offer technical advice in the design phase of the project. This way, EIB can mainstream climate concerns into project from the beginning while also incorporating local insights. EIB’s partners are “on the ground talking to the governments, talking to the people there, talking to the NGOs, talking to everyone, to make sure we are getting to where the needs are,” said Cenalmor. The goal is to “get the money going in the right direction.”

Since the first Persian Gulf War, Europe and the United States have significantly expanded their military presences in the region. However, going forward, soft power tools could become more essential for building economic, environmental, and social resilience that prevents insecurity, said Goodman. We should aim to strengthen transatlantic institutions that can generate cooperative, diplomatic approaches to building resilience across MENA communities, she said: “It’s not all about hard power.”

It makes sense for the United States and Europe to combine resources to fulfill their common interests, said Mabey, calling for more dialogue between the United States and the European Union on climate resilience in the MENA region. The forum should be similar in sophistication and commitment to the current joint efforts to tackle extremism in the area, he said: “Shared alignment of approach and analysis needs to be the seed of how we move forward.”

The Wilson Center, chartered by Congress as the living memorial to President Woodrow Wilson, is the nation’s key non-partisan policy forum. In tackling global issues through independent research and open dialogue, the Center informs actionable ideas for Congress, the administration, and the broader policy community.