Will Israel Attack Iran?

It is not advisable to predict anything in this turbulent world. One cannot even trust what one reads in the newspapers or hears in the media. But I can’t resist analyzing the current standoff between Israel and Iran, and sharing my insights, wrong as they may be.

I believe Israel will attack Iran.

Not because attacking Iran would stop them from developing nuclear weapons—when there is the will there is the means, and Iran has the will.

Not because an attack would stop a nuclear armageddon by preventing Iran from using the bomb—just the opposite. An attack might start a devil’s dance with disastrous repercussions not just for Israel, not just for the Middle East, but also perhaps for the whole world.

How?

Iran is not alone. It has supporters in the Arab-Muslim world who would seek revenge, and not against Israel alone. Iran has already announced that if Israel were to attack, Iran considers the United States an accomplice (Israel will be using US made planes, no? And Israel has forever been an ally of the US). Iran and its Muslim supporters will release an unprecedented wave of terror on U.S. soil and for that matter on Europe too; What a great excuse to attack the West with no restraints. I would not take this threat lightly.

So, why does Israel not wait and see whether Iran will, indeed, launch an attack? True, it might cost several thousand lives if Iran moves first, but if Israel attacks first, and the revenge is unleashed against the western world, there might not be fewer casualties either.

I have spoken with some knowledgeable Iranians who told me that Iran is too smart to use the bomb. It is a poorly kept secret that Israel, too, has a nuclear arsenal and could strike back. Iran knows there will be retaliation and it will cost them in too many lives to deliver on their threat.

The bomb, those Iranians claim, is a defensive vehicle, not an offensive vehicle.

So why would Israel attack first?

Because of the mythos of “never again!”

The memories of the Holocaust are still driving Israeli military and foreign policy: “We will never again be taken like lambs to the slaughter. Never, never, never again.”

It is like a mantra many Israelis repeat when asked what Israel should do about Iran.

It is what children in Israel learn even as kindergartners.

It is an oath most Israeli select military units take when graduating from basic training.

This is the conclusion one arrives at in history classes in Israel: We are not Diaspora Jews anymore. When attacked we will not suffer quietly anymore. We will fight back.

Israel applauds Mordechai Anielewicz, who led the Warsaw Ghetto Uprising during the Second World War. There was no chance the revolt would succeed, but he and his people would rather die fighting than wait to be slaughtered.

Israelis climb Mount Masada and identify themselves with the Jewish zealots during Roman times who committed suicide rather than die as slaves.

This is the mythos that will drive Israel to attack.

I believe the decision to attack will not be driven by logical, cold, rational deliberations but by this cultural mythos Israelis cannot resist.

Neither Bibi Netanyahu nor Ehud Barak, his defense minister, would like to go down in history as the leaders who behaved like Diaspora Jews, who sat there watching the Iranian threat advancing like a dark cloud and not proacting against it.

Even if taking action would bring disaster upon their country.

Even if waiting and doing nothing is the more rational decision.

And what will the United States do?

It is in the United States’ interest to see Iran lose its capability to have nuclear arsenal but at the same time to appear to be against military action, and for peaceful diplomatic efforts instead.

Why?

In order not to turn the wrath of the Muslim world against it. Yet, at the same time, the U.S. will quietly encourage, or at least not prohibit, Israel from launching an attack.

Let Israel do the dirty work. USA and the rest of the world will keep its distance and purity.

After the attack, after its interests were well served, the world can accuse Israel of being aggressive, irrational, a warmonger, etc. It is nothing new. Jews have been used as scapegoats before….

Some of what you say makes sense – especially the Israeli post-holocaust mind-set and paranoia – but one of your basic assumptions is way off. You say:
“Iran is not alone. It has supporters in the Arab-Muslim world who would seek revenge, and not against Israel alone.”
Which supporters? Turkey? A rapidly disintegrating Syria, Hamas and Hezbollah? Almost all the Arab/Moslem countries would happily see Iran bombed by Israel. The rift between Iran and most of the other Arab states is based on the fact that Iran has a large Moslem Shi’a majority while most of the other Moslem countries/states are Suni Moslem.
Here is an interesting article about this in Der Speigel (English)http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,706445,00.html

This is one of the wisest assessments of the Israeli psyche I have read in a long time. I have to admit that I am a bit surprised that it is coming for a Jew, since people are typically reluctant to criticize their own nation or ethnic group. I can only lament there are not more Dr. Adizeses in the world and I ask where the likes of Dr. Adizes are when it comes to forming US policy. It was not long ago that New York State Democratic Congress representatives lost their reelection bids to Republican war mongers, mostly over Jewish wrath over Obama’s criticism of Israeli settlements. One wishes that Dr. Adizes could help convince these constituents that aggressive and suicidal behavior leads to nothing but violence and violence leads to nothing but death and destruction. The Jewish people paid an unthinkable price for such mindless and destructive policy perpetrated upon them by the Nazis. It is high time this nation of high achievers demonstrates its wisdom learned from its tragic history: Only an inclusive society without ethnic boundaries and religious divisions breeds cultural and economic success, the cornerstones of peace and prosperity. As I visit Berlin I am often pleased to see how Jewish synagogues prosper in this once capital of racists and haters, a nation people which considered itself above everyone else. Berlin today is proof that an open mind and an open heart lead to a creative, inclusive and successful society, a place where terrorists find it more difficult to recruit backward thinking religious zealots whose reason is limited by whatever extreme interpretation of their holy book.

“knowledgeable Iranians who told me that Iran is too smart to use the bomb”

True. If (not when) they have it, any Israeli deterrence against the overwhelming Arab superiority in conventional modern weapons (supplied by the USA and European countries) will evaporate.

What Israel (and the rest of the world) will do if Egypt will evict the peace-keeping troops from Sinai and move its army up to the Israel border, and then stop? How long could Israel keep its reserve armies mobilized to be prepared for a sudden attack?

Yes, all of what you write here is true, unfortunately. It illustrates how little we have learned as a species, condemning ourselves to repeat the mistakes of the past. What I wonder, really, is how the Adize principles of mutual trust and respect could, some day, somehow, be brought to this kind of human-social phenomenon. “Dirty politics” is just the uncovering of dark human tendencies that we all have in one way or another. This is what we all want to lift, to refine and to help change in one another.

As a student of yoga, Dr Adize, what if you take the approach suggested by the philosophy of reincarnation. A Jew or an Iranian or an American, or whatever does not necessarily reincarnate in the same culture or race or whatever. What if ….. think of it! Does this help to give us pause, to think again what it means to be human, and to find other ways to deal with one another than by a mantra like “never, never, again”, as if that will solve anything in the long run of human life on this planet?

Just as mutual trust and respect is the hallmark and standard in our professional and personal lives, so it must be in “politics”. We can’t resign ourselves to something less under the guise of being “realistic”. No. Together we must insist that these same standards are the motives for the actions we take as communities of people and nations. Never, never again should be allow our actions to be based on base instincts like anger, fear, revenge…

‘What will happen if this?’ ‘What will happen if that’
Humanity loves to presume way to much in its knowledge of potential outcomes.
Here’s one if either attack the other:

An un-holy mess.
Carnage.
Immense suffering.
Politicians and military in their bunkers ordering the attacks & responses.
The people losing everything.
Is it worth it? No.
Get back to the 1967 borders, please, with respect.

The eventual attack of Iran will not be a decision of Israelis of their own.
It is a complex USA/West strategy of advаncing towards the east.
I’m not going to guess the goal of that strategy, but it is obvious that this strategy is on the field for some period (10 or maybe 20 years ahead).
The question is will this strategy and the interests of the west reduce cultural differences and bring the two cultures closer?!
Will the Israelis have a bright future in that region after all will happen?!

It exists in one lesser known letter written by a man of tremendous courage and love for humanity – Shri Ram Chandra.

In his letter dated 8th July 1957 to the United Nations, he had assured us of peace, IF a simple recipe was used with sincerity and deep faith :

“Let all brothers and sisters sit daily at a fixed hour individually at our respective places and meditate for about an hour thinking that all people of the World are growing peace – loving and pious.” Shri Ram Chandra, Shahjahanpur, INDIA.

Dear friends, What more terrible could happen has already happened, it was World War II, the Armageddon has happened, it was World War II, a nuclear war ever happened was World War II. This is my conviction, there will never be a World War III, it is that lives strong in my heart, I am 30 years praying every morning Nam-Myoho-Renge-Kyo to bring peace, wisdom and courage in the heart of each person to lead a world fit for everyone. In 2015, in Hiroshima, the world will sign a treaty (NWC) to eliminate these more than 20,000 nuclear weapons that are pointed at our heads, here where I live in Sao Paulo, Brazil, and where every citizen of the world is. For 30 years I have been talking with the people around me, children, youth and adults to come together toward a world of dignity for all, a world of the triumph of creative life, I have been talking and praying that the true teaching bring peace in the heart of each person. The true teaching is what he considers every human being as worthy of respect, is what elevates each human condition treasure of the universe. It is that values every human being. Unlike a nuclear weapon disregards human life. I have much to talk about it. We are all brothers, every war in the world is a civil war, a war between brothers. I will continue talking with more and more people, where I am in Brazil, to awaken to the dignity of life. I consider myself fortunate to have found in this life a true master in life, Dr. Daisaku Ikeda. Japanese is the people who raised more for the dignity of life, it is the only people that suffered the consequences of nuclear bombs. I’ll keep shouting the words of my master and teacher of my teacher, Mr. Jossei Toda, the importance of pull the claws that justify such a world with nuclear weapons. Therefore, any prediction of end times that someone has done in the past, I consider as the Second World War, because now it is my strong determination that this will never occur. And I have this force, as every one of you has. A single person can change the destiny of an entire people and the world. Instead of continuing to question whether or not world peace a reality, we question how much we are willing to make it a reality from our own sweat and labor.
We have much knowledge we can apply. We can make up syndags in each neighborhood, with students, parents, teachers, schools, community people, and bring ideas for a better world.
Please, you can count on me to create a world with dignity for everyone, a world of peace with justice. Best regards my friends, Michel Nader – Sao Paulo / Brazil

Your assessment of the situation that exists today between Israel and Iran may turn out to be true. Or it may not be. Who knows what is there in the destiny of nations of the world?

So, I suggest that instead of making prediction of what we think will happen based on assessment of the existing situation – we rather pray that situation would improve and become better. Our every thought counts. Particularly a written word. It is very important for people involved in spiritual pursuits to guard their thoughts and words. Their every noble thought uplifts the world in a small (may be insignificant) but a positive way.

What I’m saying is that knowing that situation is bad – we should be spreading words that say how can situation become better i.e., we offer ways of solving problems instead of predicting doom.

Rather than further discussing who would attack first, I believe attention should be focused on
finding other alternatives. Nevertheless, in my opinion Israel would never start first. For long term survival and for retaining US support, it has to be the “victim” not the “agressor”.

Israel, is America surrogate. If Obama (or any of his predecessors would have liked Israel to be the 52nd state they could have offered that, however America benefits more from Israel being a surrogate than a “legitimate member of the USA family.

The conflict with Iran is about American interests. the haterate to the Jewish state is fueled by the belief of the Iranians that America (and the West) will not agree with the annihilation of Israel or maybe allow them to do what Hitler did to Poland.

As far as attacking Iran USA is procrastinating, so the best is to have Israel do the job. That is what surrogates do – the work that nobody want to do themselves or be accused for.

Dr.Adizes, forgive my lack of manners, but is it not contradicting to say that “even though Israelis are to be irrational in attacking Iran first, they would not be stopped (by US or others) from doing world a favor and then be used as scapegoats”?

Clearly, nobody wins in a war, especially in a nuclear one. So are Israelis dumber than Iranians to have missed that?

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Please note:

The insights presented in these blogs are the personal insight of Dr. Ichak Kalderon Adizes and do not necessarily express the opinion or position of the Adizes Institute or its staff individually or as a group.

DISCLAIMER: The insights presented in these blogs are the personal insight of Dr. Ichak Kalderon Adizes and do not necessarily express the opinion or position of the Adizes Institute or its staff individually or as a group.