Translate

Friday, September 21, 2012

The Problems Israel Would Face in Attacking Iran

Here are some of the problems facing the Israelis if they attempt to attack Iranian nuclear facilities by air:

According to Joffe, the US air force ordered MOPs [massive bunker busting bombs] when
the Fordo facility was uncovered, the first were delivered last fall.
Israel does not have MOPs or American B2 bombers, which would be used to
transport the bombs if the Americans attack. Yet Fordo is only one of
the problems Israel is facing.

Another difficulty in a military strike
against Iran is the distance. Out of the eight central air force
targets in the Islamic Republic, only the Arak facility is reachable
without refueling.

"An F-16I 'Storm' flies very high in very
thin air, with extra fuel tanks it can cover 1500 km. Yet if it flies
low to evade radar in Jordan, Iraq and Iran, its combat radius shrinks
by half. The F-15I 'Thunder', the IAF’s mightiest jet probably has
similar specs: 1000 to 1500 kilometers.

Joffe goes on to
explain in detail why it just is not enough: "The pilots would have to
turn back about a hundred kilometers short of the enrichment sites at
Fordo and Natanz. If they were to fly on anyway, they would have to refill their tanks over territory that’s not exactly friendly: Jordan and Iraq using the direct route; or, on the northern variant, along the Syrian-Turkish border.

"They could fly undetected only over the sea, around the Arabian
Peninsula. That would mean 5000 kilometers: an absurd venture…Geography,
then, remains Israel’s foremost enemy, one that can be overcome only by
midair refueling."

Yet refueling might be Israel's main
problem, says Joffe: "Israel has only five tanker jets modified Boeing
707s. Time for some mental math: The IAF has 100 Storms and 25 Thunders.
If they’re all deployed at once, they would have to be refueled twice,
on each leg of the mission. 125 times two equals 250 – with a handful of
tankers?

"Then with half the fleet, perhaps? That wouldn’t
change much either, because bombers have to arm themselves against
fighters and ground-to-air missiles. The Iranians’ 50-odd fighters
(F-14s, Mirages and MiG-29s) may be old to obsolete, but still have to
be reckoned with."

In line with American assessments claiming
that Israel cannot destroy all of Iran's nuclear facilities, and would
only be able to delay Tehran's efforts to achieve nuclear capability,
Joffe believes that the IDF would choose to hit a few of targets rather
than all eight of them.

He concludes that the air force might
try to take out key components in the nuclear supplies chain by
destroying the enrichment facility at Natanz, which is more vulnerable
than Fordo, as well as the uranium converter facility at Isfahan.

Joffe explains that without the possibility of converting uranium to gas, Iran would be forced to halt enrichment activities.