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Just months following the US Court of Federal Claims rejection of the claim that the MMR vaccine causes autism, here you will see data from formal peer refereed medical papers showing that vaccines caused autism in British and in Japanese children and will be doing the same to children around the world. The number of Japanese children developing autism rose and fell in direct proportion to the number of children vaccinated each year:-

[click image for larger graph in new window]

Click here on Contents for full details of the Japanese data [after our short section below on “British Data Show Vaccines Cause Autism”].

[See end of page for the above graph by annual % of children receiving MMR vaccination – still showing the same correspondence.]

We have compensated cases in which children exhibited an encephalopathy, or general brain disease. Encephalopathy may be accompanied by a medical progression of an array of symptoms including autistic behavior, autism, or seizures.” [Text added 10 April 2011]

Information from formal peer reviewed papers including data from the UK’s General Practice Research Database shows that with each major change in the UK childhood vaccination programme the rates of childhood autism have increased significantly.

[Click on graph to enlarge in new window]

[Article updated 27 April 2010 to include British data]

The graph above is adapted from a 2001 paper by Jick et al. The authors claimed [emphasis added]:-

“... the data provide evidence that no correlation exists between the prevalence of MMR vaccination and the rapid increase in the risk of autism over time. The explanation for the marked increase in risk of the diagnosis of autism in the past decade remains uncertain.….. The increase ….. could be due to …… environmental factors not yet identified.”

The data shows something different and when correlated with major changes in the UK childhood vaccination programme shows what are the most likely “environmental factors not yet identified“. With each major change to the UK’s childhood vaccination programme cases of childhood autism increased substantially.

The childhood autism risk increased three-fold for children born in 1988 and 1989 from the previous rate of between 1 and 4 in 10,000 to 12 in 10,000.

The major change: the MMR vaccine was introduced in October 1988. Routine administration was at around 15 months.

The childhood autism risk increased five-fold for children born in 1990 and 1991 to 20 in 10,000 from the pre 1988 rate of 1 to 4 in 10,000.

It appears it was only from 1993 that most infants were vaccinated at 2, 3 and 4 months with those born earlier being vaccinated at later ages in “catch-up campaigns”. This data suggests that to reduce the risk of autism from vaccines parents should delay the age at which their children are vaccinated.

The rate in boys is 1 in 40. Prior to 1988 which saw the first of several major changes to the UK childhood vaccination programmes the rate of childhood autism was running at between 1 and 4 in 10,000. Childhood autism is also known as “typical” or “Kanner” autism.

The data presented here provides further evidence of the unscientific approach of medical researchers when publishing papers purporting to support the claim there is no association between vaccines and autism.

The “science” from medical journals presented to courts is not reliable. The medical “science” evidence-base has become institutionally and systemically corrupt since US President Ronald Reagan introduced the Bayh-Dole Act in the 1980’s : [“Doctors Without Borders – Why you can’t trust medical journals anymore” by Shannon Brownlee, Washington Monthly].

Mainstream medical journals live off drug company advertising. Government health officials, drug company lobbyists and medical professionals tell us: it is “science” and “proof” when it is not.

Covert lobbying is endemic:-

‘The use of PR to counter negative publicity’

‘221. ………. Considerable resources are invested into building long-term, sustainable relationships with stakeholders and ‘key opinion leaders‘ and journalists. These relationships are used to promote the use of certain brands and counter concerns relating to safety. Efforts to undermine critical voices in particular were identified, under terms of “issues management”. In later evidence, in response to the ISM’s memorandum, Pfizer stated that PR is entirely legitimate and can “help to educate and inform”. According to the PMCPA, PR activities may include “placing articles in the lay press, TV documentaries, soap operas etc“.’ [p60 ‘The Influence of the Pharmaceutical industry‘ 2004 – English Parliamentary Health Select Committee report [emphasis added]]

The US Justice Department publicised a US$650 million fraud settlement agreed to by pharmaceutical giant Merck for a fraud on patients and the US government healthcare system involving a conspiracy with US hospitals to give the elderly cheaper drugs but charging them for the more expensive product prescribed by the patients’ doctors. More Fraud By Drug Giant Merck – US$650 Million

And governments expect the public to trust the health and safety of their children to products from companies like that.

Peer Review of Data

The data and analysis shown here has been through a process of peer review. Publication is responsible to bring it to public attention.

Head of UK Health Protection Agency. Result: no comment rebuttal or answer [although correspondence sent was received];

the publishers Blackwell Publishing. Result: no comment, rebuttal or answer [although correspondence sent was received].

It has also been presented to others including an expert in the assessment of adverse drug reactions who confirmed data showing such a close correspondence is remarkable in post marketing surveillance and rarely if ever seen – probably unique.

In 2005 a paper by two Japanese psychiatrists, Hideo Honda and Yasuo Shimizu, was published in an English psychiatric journal with English psychiatrist Professor Sir Michael Rutter also named as an author. The paper was claimed to be proof MMR vaccine could not cause autistic spectrum disorders: [“No effect of MMR withdrawal on the incidence of autism: a total population study.” Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry (2005)].

The scientific reality is that the only thing Honda/Rutter teaches us is that MMR vaccine cannot be the only vaccine to cause autistic spectrum disorders – and not that it is not a cause of autism.

These three psychiatrists failed to provide the full picture. They made invalid claims [See more below The Invalid Claims]. Those claims were based on inadequate research containing basic flaws.Psychiatrists are not usually also trained scientists and normally lack scientific qualifications. When the flaws in their paper are identified and corrected, the paper provides unusually strong evidence, not normally seen, showing vaccines as a cause of Autistic Spectrum Disorders (ASD).

The paper shows, when corrected with the missing data, Autistic Spectrum Disorder numbers increased and decreased in direct proportion to the total number of children vaccinated.We see here not just evidence of dechallenges and rechallenges but a “dose-response” relationship on a population level.

A dose-response relationship on a population level is rare if not unprecedented. The close numerical correspondence seen here is usually not found. This is conclusive evidence of a causal association.

The Honda/Rutter paper claimed that new cases of autism in Japan fell for children born in 1991-92 (as the confidence of Japanese parents fell in the dangerous Japanese MMR vaccine withdrawn on safety grounds in 1992) but then rose sharply again and especially for children who were born in 1993-94. Here is the graph from the Honda/Rutter paper:-

The MMR vaccination rate in the city of Yokohama declined significantly in the birth cohorts of years 1988 through 1992, and not a single vaccination was administered in 1993 or thereafter. In contrast, cumulative incidence of ASD up to age seven increased significantly in the birth cohorts of years 1988 through 1996 and most notably rose dramatically beginning with the birth cohort of 1993.”

The authors wrongly claimed this meant it was unlikely MMR vaccine caused autism spectrum disorders. They made this claim without any “control” – a scientific fundamental – something to compare against MMR – a scientific benchmark or yardstick to see if there was any difference compared with something else.

As can be seen from the above Honda/Rutter graph, in 93-94 and after, the autism rate was double that in the period up to 1992 [when the MMR vaccine was withdrawn]. The authors were duty bound to consider this before going into print. Their data put them on notice that withdrawing the proven dangerous Japanese MMR vaccine was associated with a marked drop in new cases of autism. That is clear from their graphs. Autism cases fell for those born in 1991-92 as uptake of the Japanese MMR vaccine fell and was withdrawn in 1992.

The authors failed to do what any scientist would have done. They failed to ask themselves “why?“.Why did autism rapidly increase for children born in 1993-94 and thereafter?

And there was something to compare against the MMR. Honda/Rutter did not use it.

The MMR was replaced with single measles and single rubella vaccines. These were given at or about at the same time. And also at the same time the overall vaccination rate in Japan was increased by 150%.

When this happened the autism rate increased in step.

Professor Rutter has close associations with the drug industry including GlaxoSmithKline. He was a paid expert witness on their behalf in the UK MMR vaccine damage litigation. That was not declared in the Honda/Rutter paper nor were any other potential conflicts of interest or statements of funding (about which see more below).

The Honda/Rutter paper when corrected provides not only strong evidence that MMR and single measles vaccines are causes of ASD but it also implicates as causes of ASD the rubella vaccine and JE (Japanese Encephalitis) vaccine containing Thiomersal [Thimerosal in the USA]. Thiomersal is a known toxic mercury containing neurotoxin and also causes allergies.It is toxic in parts per billion.

Japanese Encephalitis vaccine was given in three separate vaccinations and each one contained the poisonous mercury based neurotoxin thiomersal. So JE vaccine is just like DTP given to children in the USA and UK up until very recently in that it contained that neurotoxin and was given in three jabs to infants or toddlers.

That the practice in Japan was to give the measles and rubella vaccines at the same time was the boast of The British Department of Health. That was to bolster official claims that whistle blower medical doctor Andrew Wakefield’s concerns about the MMR vaccine were wrong. The Honda/Rutter paper was announced in the usual blaze of publicity. And as usual, the truth has not been. No one can argue validly that scientifically the Honda/Rutter paper is not deeply flawed.

In Japan when MMR was introduced, single measles vaccine was still being used side-by-side with MMR. Professor Rutter and his colleagues failed to take that into account.They also failed to look to two peer refereed papers published only three years earlier in 2002 which provide some of the missing data:-

The Nakatani and Terada papers provide a more complete picture. The Terada paper sets out the annual Japanese vaccination data for the annual numbers of vaccinations for measles and MMR vaccines combined in Kurashiki City, Japan. The Nakatani paper sets out the overall national Japanese vaccination data for all regions including Yokohama. Its data includes vaccine uptake in Japan for measles, rubella and the mercury containing Japanese Encephalitis vaccine.

In addition Honda/Rutter missed another Japanese paper from 2003 – Takahashi – claiming the risk of autism could be between 5 and 9 times greater from single measles and rubella vaccines, so Honda/Rutter have no excuses for not considering this possibility and including the single vaccines as a control or comparison group:

The Takahashi paper is further direct evidence of a link between vaccines and autism – despite repeated denials by health officials, “expert” panels, medical professionals and journalists that there is no evidence of such a causal link. The confidence intervals for the Takahashi data are large which brings the results of the study into doubt and the authors called for a nationwide study. However, its existence and conclusions would have put the Honda/Rutter paper’s authors on notice that they needed also to consider the causal association with single vaccines. This is in addition to it being well-known and accepted since at least 1966 that rubella virus is a cause of autism. Thus making it biologically plausible for a vaccine virus and particularly one containing rubella virus to cause autism.

A study post dating Honda/Rutter compared Japanese children who received the MMR vaccine with “unvaccinated” Japanese children and found no difference in regressive autism rates: MMR-Vaccine and Regression in Autism Spectrum Disorders: Tokio Uchiyama, Michiko Kurosawa, Yutaka Inaba J Autism Dev Disord (2007) 37:210–217.

However, the “unvaccinated” children were not. These were children who had received the single measles and rubella vaccines. So that study also goes to support the findings presented here that it is the vaccines and/or the combinations of vaccines which are causally associated with autistic conditions.

Grateful thanks for generously making his library facilities available pro bono publico without condition or hesitation, and especially so for enabling the key Terada paper to be located are due to Professor Jeff Bradstreet MD, MD(H) FAAFP, Adjunct Professor of Pediatrics, Southwest College of Naturopathic Medicine, International Child Development Research Centre, Melbourne, FL 32934, USA. It is certain some children and their families could be saved from a lifetime of autism if the information here becomes more widely available to parents, independently minded physicians and other medical practitioners.

When Honda/Rutter is compared to Terada it can be seen that ASD numbers rose and fell in direct proportion to the total number of children vaccinated in any year. In other words, the number of Japanese children who developed autism was directly related to the number who received MMR, single measles, rubella and Japanese Encephalitis vaccines. Here is a combined graph showing this:-

This is a dose-response relationship – the extent of the effect of a drug is related to the amount of the drug administered. Unusually, we see a dose-response relationship on a “population level” in a large sample of the child population of Japan, a biological gradient, and as such, this is conclusive evidence of a causal association between vaccination and Autistic Spectrum Disorders in children.

Immediately below is the data from the Terada and Honda/Rutter papers shown separately in the graphs, from the original papers as published:-

Terada Paper: Fig. 4 Numbers of measles vaccinations and births in Kurashiki City from 1980 to 2000

Red Line joins tops of bars. It shows the total of MMR and Measles vaccinations each year in Kurashiki City from 1980 to 2000.

Honda/Rutter Fig. 1: Numbers of ASD diagnoses in children up to 7 years of age by year of birth

These graphs compare data for children born in two different areas: Kurashiki City with Kohoku Ward, Yokohama. The correspondence is remarkable. [Note when comparing the first graph, Japanese children were vaccinated when 15-18 months old – so the comparison of ASD rates by year of birth is with the vaccination rates approximately two years later. The first graph is 15-18 months “ahead” of the second.]

Further, the Nakatani paper indicates this similarity in the data is unlikely to be coincidence: [Development of Vaccination Policy in Japan: Current Issues and Policy Directions, Hiroki Nakatani,Tadashi Sanoand Tsutomu Iuchi Jpn J Infect Dis 55 101-111 2002]. The Nakatani paper shows the national vaccination rates in Japan. These are closely similar in profile to that shown for Kurashiki City. It is also reasonable to expect that the national vaccination rates would be similar for Kohoku Ward (data in the Honda/Rutter paper).

To put this correspondence mathematically, the correlation co-efficient shows a high, 79% correlation between the Honda/Rutter paper’s autism data and the measles and MMR vaccine uptake nationally in Japan [Nakatani data].

It is however the Nakatani paper which implicates rubella vaccine and the thiomersal/thimerosal mercury containing JE (Japanese Encephalitis) vaccines along with MMR. The Nakatani paper shows that in 1995 there was a sharp rise (150%) in single measles and single rubella vaccinations. Many of the children getting those vaccines in 1995 would have been those born in 1993-4. This rise was also coupled with a doubling in Japanese Encephalitis vaccinations (200%) between 1993 and 1995.

Here is the graph from the Nakatanipaper showing the increases in single measles, rubella and JE vaccine vaccination rates by 1995 in Japan – the vertical blue line has been added to highlight the year and the legend ringed in blue to pick out the measles, rubella and JE vaccine lines of the graph:-

And after the 150% increase in measles and rubella vaccinations and the doubling in the JE vaccine uptake, the graph shows that autism incidence doubled.

Incidence rose from 60 in 10,000 (1991-92 births) to 120 in 10,000 (1995-96 births). The same applies to the peaks in the graph in 1990 and 1994. The 1990 peak was 80 in 10,000 and the 1994 peak was double that at 160 in 10,000.

Grateful thanks to to Dr F E Yazbak of Boston Massachusetts, USA for drawing attention to the Nakatani paper and so assisting to identify this population level rechallenge proof of autism causation of the MMR and mercury containing vaccines.

This shows that not only did the authors of the Honda/Rutter paper have before them evidence of a “population level” dechallenge, they also had evidence of a “population level” rechallenge. Had they carried out their researches properly, they would also have had the evidence of the Nakatani and Terada papers to show the powerful evidence of a dose-response relationship on a population level.

How Comparable Are These Two Cities?

The graph below demonstrates how comparable Kurashiki City and Yokohama are for MMR vaccination uptake. This is in addition to the national figures for Japan from the Nakatani paper which apply to both cities. The Nakatani figures show [for the second autism peak in the Honda/Rutter paper for children born in 1994] there was 150% increase in single vaccine uptake throughout Japan and a 200% increase for Thiomersal containing Japanese Encephalitis vaccine. [These increases followed the change in the national Japanese vaccination law in 1994. Children born that year would have been vaccinated 15-18 months later with MMR and 12-24 months later with JE vaccine].

Just one well documented spontaneous report of a rechallenge is sufficient to prove a drug causes a harmful adverse drug reaction. Only three well documented cases of dechallenge are sufficient proof.

But here we see these numerous dechallenges and rechallenges combining into a continuous dose-response relationship on a population level. This is unusual and powerful proof of a causal association.

“Dechallenge” is the withdrawal of the administration of a drug from a person after they have been taking it. If adverse symptoms suffered by the person diminish with withdrawal of the drug, that is evidence the reaction is caused by the drug. “Rechallenge” is where the same drug is reintroduced and the adverse reactions start again. This is standard well-known and well-accepted pharmacological science.“Spontaneous” means you do not have to carry out a drug trial. If it happens to an ordinary patient at any time anywhere but is well documented, that can be sufficient proof.

Here, we see the Honda/Rutter paper in conjunction with the Nakatani paper providing us with a large number of examples of dechallenges and rechallenges. This is not in a few individuals but in large samples of the child population of Japan. And the dechallenges and rechallenges are well documented in published peer refereed papers.

The Terada paper also shows us that in this sample Japanese population (hence the term “population level”) the dechallenges and rechallenges combine to show us a population level dose-response relationship. That means we see the adverse effects increasing and decreasing in proportion to the quantity of the pharmaceutical (here vaccines) administered to the sample population. That is powerful as proof of a causal association between the vaccines and autistic spectrum disorders. You can read further about the power of dechallenge and rechallenge evidence in this peer refereed medico-legal paper by Professor Donald Miller MD, professor of surgery at the University of Washington and published in the Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons:-

The Honda/Rutter graph shows that autism incidence was rising over the entire period from 1988 to 1996. Thus this is more evidence to confirm the world autism pandemic, and which is other evidence the Honda/Rutter authors had before them which they did not deal with.

It can help to follow the money. In the money connections, you don’t get any bigger than Rutter. Psychiatrist Professor Sir Michael Rutter is a former (recent) Deputy Chairman of the immensely wealthy Wellcome Trust (founded by the Wellcome Foundation which is now Glaxo). For confirmation of his status, see the 4th page of :-

The Trust hands out millions every year and has far more substantial reserves to enable it to do that. And it can dictate a great deal of what research is carried out around the world. See here for details:-

Professor Sir Michael Rutter is Professor of Developmental Psychopathology at the Institute of Psychiatry, Kings College, London. He has been a consultant psychiatrist at the Maudsley Hospital since 1966, and was Professor of Child Psychiatry at the Institute of Psychiatry from 1973 to 1998. He set up the Medical Research Council Child Psychiatry Research Unit in 1984 and the Social, Genetic and Developmental Psychiatry Centre 10 years later, being honorary director of both until October 1998. His research has included the genetics of autism; the study of both school and family influences on children’s behaviour; the links between mental disorders in childhood and adult life; epidemiological approaches to test causal hypotheses; and gene-environment interplay. He was Deputy Chairman of the Wellcome Trust from 1999 to 2004, and has been a Trustee of the Nuffield Foundation since 1992. He was elected a Fellow of the Royal Society in 1987 and an honorary member of the British Academy in 2002. He was a Founding Fellow of the Academia Europaea and the Academy of Medical Sciences, of which he is currently Clinical Vice-President. He has received numerous international honours and has published some 40 books and over 400 scientific papers and chapters.

Professor Sir Michael Rutter along with a troupe of psychiatrists now or formerly associated with The Maudsley Hospital and The Institute of Psychiatry at Kings College, London University, have been working hard at telling the public autism is solely genetic and denying there is a world autism pandemic.If a condition is genetic, you also do not suddenly get spontaneous mutation of large numbers of individuals. That suggestion is counter logical and non science. Genetics cannot account for the large rise we are seeing in autism since the mid 1980s. So instead what we see are efforts by Rutter and the King’s Institute of Psychiatry other autism denialists to claim there is no real rise in the prevalence of autism. This claim is unscientific and runs counter to the facts documented in the formal literature.

The Institute of Psychiatry has been an embarrassing place to be because of this April 2008 news item:-

BBC psychiatrist Tonmoy Sharma is struck off By Lucy Cockcroft The Telegraph 01 April /2008A psychiatrist who regularly appeared as an expert on the BBC has been struck off the medical register after he lied about his academic qualifications and performed unethical drugs tests on mentally ill patients.

The Institute of Psychiatry has or is home to more than its fair share of doctors (psychiatrists mostly) who publish papers claiming autism is genetic and denying there is an autism epidemic (the correct word is pandemic – epidemics have far fewer victims). These doctors include Rutter, Eric Fombonne (now expert witness in the US in the thiomersal/autism litigation when he had previously published nothing about it) and Professor Simon Baron Cohen.

It is also home to controversial “Gulf War Syndrome” psychiatrist Simon Wessley, director of the Centre for Military Health Research at King’s College London and who had been claiming ME/CFS is not a physical condition but a mental one contrary to the definition used around the world. Sophia Wilson is an example of an ME/CFS sufferer who died following this approach to diagnosis, albeit there is no evidence available to this author she was ever a patient of any of the psychiatrists or institutions name here.

Also associated with The Institute of Psychiatry and the Maudsley is Dr Ben Goldacre, who constantly attacks alternative medicine in The Guardian [a UK national newspaper] whilst writing the “Badscience” column – yet Goldacre has no scientific qualifications and avoids disclosing that he practises psychiatry. Psychiatry is the least successful branch of medicine in history and is notorious for a lack of scientific bases to support the theories some of its proponents put out.Goldacre works with Wessley.

Goldacre and Wessley have close professional and personal connections to King’s Mobile Phones Research Unit. Goldacre has made public attacks, backed by the industry funded lobby group, The Science Media Centre, on a BBC Panorama documentary about mobile phone hazards, which hazards were raised by the current head of the UK’s Health Protection Agency, before taking up that post. Ben Goldacre and The Science Media Centre attacked the programme and its journalists.

Professor Rutter is also a friend of the editor of the journal which printed the Honda/Rutter MMR paper. Here is his endorsement of the Journal:-

JCPP is clearly the world’s No. 1 child psychology and psychiatry journal. It integrates clinical and developmental perspectives, it is truly international, and interdisciplinary, and it combines high scientific standards with attention to clinical relevance.” Prof. Sir Michael Rutter“

When confronted with the above evidence on Rutter’s Japanese autism paper Charman refused to have the Honda/Rutter paper retracted or to publish a correction or rebuttal. The publishing group Blackwell which published the Honda/Rutter paper have provided no comment.

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Addendum – Additional Graphs

Alternative presentation showing same correspondence between autism rate and vaccination rate – showing annual vaccine uptake as % of annual birthrate [click graph for larger version in new window]:

In the US the official diagnostic definition of what we call “Autism Spectrum Disorders” or ASD are instead called “Pervasive Development Disorders” or PDD for short. That is under the “Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (4th edn)” or “DSM IV” for short.

“Autistic Spectrum Disorder” is the term applied internationally under the “ICD” or “International Classification of Disease”

Many refer to ASD and PDD as “autism” but “autism” is a subset of the spectrum and is often referred to also as “childhood autism”, “typical autism” and “Kanner autism”. [The common behaviours like hand flapping, loss of eye contact and suchlike in young children are unmistakable, whereas other spectrum disorders like mild Aspergers Syndrome can be more difficult to diagnose.]

106 Responses

Excellent stuff. Thank you so much, chs, and people like Prof Bradstreet and Dr Yazbak for keeping such a weather eye out for these sorts of evidences, and shenanigans on the part of the power structure.

I have been having a bit of a contretemps with a ‘true-believer’ poster on a ‘pro-science’ blog – meaning, to them, ‘pro-vaccine’ – about evidences pro and con about links between vaccines and autism, and the poster constantly refers to studies like the Honda/Rutter one above as ‘proof’ of the lack of any evidence of such a link. I have drawn his attention to analyses of the Denmark study (Madsen) and the Canadian study (Fombonne) which have caught their methodological flaws, and the good work of Mark Blaxill in finding analytical-error flaws in some incidence studies on ASD; but so far he will have none of it. Those analyzers post on dubious sites, you see, so out goes the baby with the bathwater…hopefully this analysis of the Japan study, and your article, will attract wide attention.

This is really an excellent post! You do not only have a complete presentation but you also provide factual evidence. The comparison of vaccine versus autism is realy evident with the graphs presented. This is really nice. Thanks for sharing! ;)

Laughable nonsense. this is not scientific in any way – you are comparing 2 cities hundreds of miles apart. well done to present it with such pseudo-scientific rubbish as to make it seem plausible to the ignorant.

[ED: Irrelevant – the Honda/Rutter second peak of autism rose in step with the increase in measles and rubella vaccination uptake in Japan nationally when replacing MMR – national data from Nakatani paper.

Therefore unscientific on that basis alone of Honda/Rutter to claim MMR could not cause autism. If you cannot accept that then you will accept nothing.

The Terada data for Kurashiki City in addition supports the national picture shown by the Nakatani data and provides a city to city comparison. A double-check.

This is real data. What you have added is zero. The blogging equivalent of a tyre-kicker.]

“Laughable nonsense”—That is a pretty insensitive thing to say about a subject that has had such an impact on the lives of millions. This is just one of many studies pointing to vaccination as a damaging effect on the human body.

This is Laughable nonsense. Your data reflects selective biases and confounding. Your report is just as valid as taking two completely random facts, linking them, and then claiming that one caused the other. You don’t take into consideration all of the many other variables that could be contributing factors.

In addition you only report incidence. Naturally the vaccines and Autism will rise with more infants born and decrease with less. Did you account for that? Those years of increase and decrease could simply vary according to the number of children born those years.

As said before, you do not account for any variables. You are doing basic elementary research: taking two incidences, finding a coincidence and then claiming cause and effect. A pathetic waste of time and a poor reflection of a research scientist.

Good luck in the future and be complete before you make such an outstanding confabulation.

[ED: More of the usual nonsense Dr D.

To demonstrate your enviable scientific erudition perhaps you can confirm you agree Honda/Rutter is valid, an unconfounded scientific investigation and that their conclusion still holds? Please do let us know.

Takahashi’s paper suggests single measles and single rubella vaccines cause autism so we can all conclude MMR which gives both at the same time cannot possibly do so. It is just laughable to suggest otherwise.

Takahashi should really not have acknowledged the possibility along with the peer reviewers of that paper and journal editor who agreed to publish it. Clearly, the Takahashi paper must be tosh – not like that excellent Honda/Rutter paper which is not confounded or flawed at all I am sure you can agree.

“Your report is just as valid as taking two completely random facts, linking them, and then claiming that one caused the other.”

Of course you must be right Dr D – it must be completely random – no correlation whatsoever – no possibility of any association – how superbly perspicacious of you. An interesting approach to the concept of “randomness” but then that kind of thing is not really the medical profession’s forte.

“Those years of increase and decrease could simply vary according to the number of children born those years. Did you account for that?“

Yes. The data as a percentage normalised by birth rate and as by absolute numbers of births show the same scales of increases and decreases – the same peaks and troughs. Anyone can check for themselves. You clearly have not.

“Your data reflects selective biases and confounding. …… You don’t take into consideration all of the many other variables that could be contributing factors.”

Which “selective biases” do you have in mind and what is your evidence?

Which “confounding factors” do you have in mind and what is your evidence?

Which “variables that could be contributing factors” do you have in mind and what is your evidence?

Additionally, you say “As said before, you do not account for any variables. ”

This implies you have posted once as “number9dream” and then again as “Dr D“? So bit of “hit and run” eh?]

Interesting – but not “real science”. Papers like this do nothing to truly prove that immunizations do or don’t cause autism. There will be no one “easy” study – this whole issue is incredibly complicated and controlling all variables will be next to impossible. There are many forms of autism and most likely, just as many causes. But let’s all keep plugging away any child saved is worth the battle.

[ED:

‘Papers like this do nothing to truly prove that immunizations do or don’t cause autism.’

Really? Not just a bit? Not even a teensy weensy little bit? Not even a tiny speck of evidence to suggest vaccinations cause autism?

And ‘not “real science”‘. Whatever term you prefer your view it is not evidence of anything?

So when autism increased in step when the Japanese vaccination rate went up 150% across the whole of Japan for rubella and measles vaccines, what do you think of that? Evidence of nothing?

And the Honda/Rutter paper? How does that still stand in your view? It has been claimed worldwide to be proof MMR does not cause autism. What do you say now?]

now i am a parent of 3.i have a 18month old that has up and coming shot appointments.today we went and the office told me that i had to reshchedule them for some odd reason.something about the state of ga.and if the shots were given today that they wouldnt be recorded…i was lost…not a month or so after her last shot visit my daughter came down with what they sd was the baby measles,which spiked a temp of 105.7 for 3days..so tell me what to do to aviod her being let down by our government

Sorry that I am coming to this article somewhat after the fact, but I just discovered it.

The incidence of autism has been going up in almost every developed country since the early 90s, completely independently of the type or quantity of childhood vaccines. This is purely and simply because there has more and better screening for autism, not because children are, on average, any different whatsoever. Cherry picking studies or cities or even countries where the correlation happens to fit your argument is neither good science nor is it ethical. Please look at the totality of evidence worldwide before making these claims.

[ED: 1) Not correct.

2) Dr Bernadine Healy does not agree with you. She is former Director of the US National Institutes of Health, The US Red Cross and member of the US Institutes of Medicine.

3) There was an increase in the number and quantity of vaccines over a period of time and changes in the timing to give them earlier in countries like the UK. Over this period the increase in autism incidence [rate of new cases] increased in a different manner to the increase in incidence during that 1990s when the vaccination schedules “settled down”.

Then, when the schedule settled down autism incidence settled down.

For a new phenomenon prevalence of any condition will increase substantially with time provided the incidence is a number greater than zero.

We have looked very closely at this including the “totality of evidence worldwide” to the extent that is reasonably possible.]

For the past decade or so Simon has been denying pesticides and organophosphates have any relevance to the people in UK suffering from ME with denials at times ME even exists. These are brain destroying chemicals probably as dangerous as the brain destroying chemicals in vaccines.

It seems Michael is learning his trade from a past master.

The crticisms of this article may or may not be valid but why in their hyperbole of criticism can they not see the tactics of Michael amount to fraud on their sky high plane of good science.

The year of start was chosen carefully to show increases year on year as MMR tailed off. Neglecting just the year before when autism was sky high and so was the MMR?

They also fail to link the soaring amount of autism with no MMR but fail to explain that in fact the children were still getting not just measles vaccine at even higher levels but to me of more importance rubella vaccine a known cause of autism accepted by EVERYONE.

A 150 per cent increase of M and R components with parallel rises in autism seem to go unnoticed as it is omitted and the experts either didn’t know or didn’t want to know, even though it is carefully explained to them.

What conclusions can we draw?

Finally the amount of autism is sky high today and amounts often to a life of misery and no hope when their caring parents die.

The only hope and sad fact will be that often the children will die young.

Next door is a young child screaming the place down all day and devoid of speech. Opposite another friend the same. He however spared his child of the full whammy of French injections and anecdotally and coincidently has the only intelligent normal and HEALTHY child I know out of three children mentioned.

I have Asperger Syndrome. It is clearly genetic in our family, although I should mention I received the usual vaccinations. I was vaccinated (again) for measles when I had my second child because they found that I was not immune to the measles. I found myself fairly psychotic following the vaccination (read the studies on tamiflu in Japan causing suicide and other psychiatric issues.) I was able to get better, but was misdiagnosed with Post partum depression as a result. Actually, I believe I had PTSD and issues from the vaccine.

I did all the research and my dr assured me that autism was not caused by vaccines. How I wish I had read this one! My oldest child was vaccinated against my will at birth (8 weeks premature and only 4 lbs) with the Hep vac that did contain mercury. When I brought her home from the hospital she had serious sensory and other issues. Later she developed obvious signs of autism.

I refused the vaccines for my next two children, but at a year I allowed them to be vaccinated with the usual MMR ect. They suddenly went from social and speaking over 10 words to avoidant and non verbal. They are now on a gluten free diet and vaccine free and doing much better.

I did vaccinate my fourth child on schedule. She was terribly ill for 6-8 weeks following each series of vaccines from newborn to six months. I took her to many drs and all said her illnesses were “normal” and not vaccine related. I allowed them to give only HALF her vaccines at 6 months and she was still very ill, with strange boils inside her mouth and throat, fevers, ear infections, ect. I refused to take her back for more.

She has had no more vaccines and this sickly child has been healthy (not even a cold) for nearly 2 years! I also found out that one of the vaccines she was being given was later RECALLED. Supposedly no children were harmed by it but obviously that is not the case. NO MORE VACCINES FOR US!! This new swine flu scares me.

Hey Mr. Smartypants Dr. D. You are forgetting one thing in your fantastic display of mathematical science. Your talk of variables and coincidence. There are millions of people around the world that have or had autism. Every single one of them received vaccinations. No person in history has ever had autism that didn’t receive vaccinations. Ever. No record anywhere of any person that was vaccine free getting autism. I don’t know how ell you understand math, variables, the law of averages, or laws of probability, but it is impossible to say vaccines have nothing to do with autism because of this simple fact. The laws of science demand that vaccines cause, contribute, or in some way play a role in autism because of the fact that no person in recored history has had autism that was vaccine free. Go back to 5th grade math my friend.

First of all you’re really cherry-picking the data. Second, correlation does not equal causation. Third, what mechanism do you propose leads vaccination to cause autism given that large-scale studies have rulled out both inflamatory bowel disease and thermosil?

[ED: Ha ha!! The usual twaddle with no specifics. And what is “thermosil”? Clearly no idea what you are talking about.

“Cherry-picking” data!!!! Soooo funny. Amazing nonsense. We have shown Rutter and Honda’s paper to be junk because they have not just cherry-picked, but have ignored the data we have found.

“Correlation does not equal causation”. Hilariously trite saying. Clearly you know nothing about rechallenge evidence or the methods of assessment of adverse drug reactions.

There are no “large-scale studies” ruling out inflamatory bowel disease and “thermosil”. What a loser.]

I am the father of a 1 year old that according to the government now requires a MMR vaccination. I have decided that we will not administer this vacine, is there any seperate vacines you would recommend in place of said MMR or should all be avoided?

[ED: We consider it inappropriate either to recommend or tell others not to vaccinate. We present information to help others make their own decisions.

Essentially you are questioning whether there is greater benefit to your child from vaccinating than risk from the vaccines and whether the risk from the diseases exceed the risks from the vaccines.

Our view is the risk profile of vaccination now exceeds the risk of the diseases concerned]

I am really confused. I find this post rather intriguing though garbled, and not quite convincing yet. Wouldn’t it be more interesting however to correlate percentages of children rather than absolute numbers of children?
Do you know that these numbers in your plot are not tracers of rising and falling fertility rates?
I also agree that using data from the same city would be more convincing, As it stands now this does indeed smack of cherry picking.

[ED: Martin, confused? A good rule is read and think before writing in public. At the top of the article it states “See end of page for alternative version of this graph normalised by annual % of children receiving MMR vaccination – but also showing the same correspondence as above graph.”

Fertility rates? Does Berkeley offer degrees in alternative comedy?

Cherry picking!! Sooo funny. This is official Japanese data you are looking at from peer reviewed journal papers.]

I gave birth to my son Nikolai, 10 years ago, at 42 years of age. I thank God that I was introduced to the vaccine controversy while I was still pregnant, when someone who loves me gave me the book “A Shot in the Dark”. I went on to read everything on the subject I could get my hands on, and as a result have refused to EVER vaccinate him. At 10 years of age he has been sick only 5 times in his whole life, has had NO ear infections ever and already writes and illustrates his own novellas. His level of energy, ability to learn and his natural immunity to sickness are all stellar.
Neither BTW have I ever had a school or camp or day care turn us away when we presented our ‘Religious Waiver’.
My siblings see it differently and they have illnesses, allergies and other ailments in their children that were never part of our own 1960’s childhood. I am thankful that the WEB makes it easier now to get critical information to people before they decide to vaccinate their beautiful babies or children. I also pray that one day common sense and compassion will prevail and the lawmakers will remove the onerous task of parents having to fight for what is right for their offspring. I won’t hold my breath though, since these are the same lawmakers that while wishing to mandate the injections of highly toxic materials into the bloodstreams of infants, have taken away the right of Americans to go out this time of year and buy fresh pressed uncooked APPLE CIDER! Go figure.
Victoria Bingham, Christpatriot@gmail.com

this has been one of the best and most complete articles I have read. thank you for all your hard work, everyone that worked on putting all this wealth of information together should be proud of themselves, if you help save even one child form Vaccine induced injury, should be proud of yourselves….
thank you..
ps. please let me know how to contact the writer(s) for more info

Even if you all believe correlation=causation, then why doesn’t ASD/1000 continue to rise in 95 and 96 when a greater % of the population has received vaccinations?

As a person who is a big advocate of Dr. Simon Baron Cohen and his E-S theory you are all doing a huge disservice to not only parents dumb enough to read and listen to this blog, but to true academic debate.

Stop getting caught up in nomenclature, or taking things personally if you are Austistic or have Aspberger’s and start trying to voice some constructive SCIENTIFIC evidence/theories.

[…] established. Look at who conducted those studies (one sample of evidence vaccines cause autism here 1 2).. Separately, do you know that vaccine efficacy (that they work) has NEVER been proven? The […]

[ED: Hint: read article before posting. The article is a complete obliteration of the Honda/Rutter paper which your 2005 New Scientist article is referring to. And if you also read the article you will see that it is not just MMR vaccine which causes autistic conditions.

Additionally, you should also read the statements by US Government health officials confirming vaccines cause autistic conditions which statements you can find here:

At the very least, you need to update your data. There are dozens upon dozens of peer-reviewed studies disconfirming the link between autism and MMR. Research relies on repeated measures to confirm results because any given study is subject to the possibility of statistical “noise.” You’re presenting the noise and ignoring the statistical symphony playing a different tune.

[ED: You need to update your reading.

Statements by US Government health officials confirm vaccines cause autistic conditions which statements you can find here:

So are those guys presenting noise too? And they paid out money to the victims.

Also, BIG hint, read the articles you comment on before commenting. The Honda/Rutter paper is completely obliterated in another article you failed to read before commenting. And if you also read the article you will see that it is not just MMR vaccine which causes autistic conditions. Here is where you can find it [again]:-

It will always amaze me how cattle will line up like sheep for a needle to be put into them, and they don’t read the simple ingrediants. Its all really that simple! Are there other contibuting factors?, Yes!

However, when needles are directly injected into us with shit in them, use your heads people 2 =2 and 4=4. Its called common sence!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Children weigh 11 to 50 Lbs! STOP THE SLAUGHTER, PLEASE!

This article is scientifically poor. It is very scary that my child and future child is being put at great risk by parents not vaccinating there children. The major problem with this debate is that those anti vaccination seem to not understand the literature, and some still believe the convicted felon Wakefield. The simple truth is that we have well established methods for statistically prooving a hypothesis as highly
Likely or not . If there is no statistics presented to support the hypothesis, it is likely that it is not statistically sound or didn’t support the hypothesis. Without any such evidence (as continually highlighted here) I really dont see why any loving parent wouldnt vaccinate their child. Not doing so puts them and others at severe risk of death. We are lucky to live in a society where such vaccinations are possible.

@Richard
Firstly how is your child at risk when apparently he is vaccinated against those diseases, isn’t those vaccination meant to protect your child? do you suspect its efficiency? then why would you administer it!
Secondly: I am sure you dont have kids, otherwise you would have given this topic some thought instead of just name calling and trying to discredit truth. I know 3 people in my life who have kids and brother who are autistic. They swear that it was triggered after the MMR administration.
Pharmaceutical companies driven by profit and creed have sold their soul for money. They are even pumping money to discredit the claim that vaccination cause Autism, the discrediting of Dr, Wakefield is also one such case.
Your blind faith in vaccination despite contrary facts makes your ability to grasp reality and process information highly challenged.
Let the pharmaceutical company which claims to spend billions of dollars in research figure out the cause of autism and prove us wrong, until then the facts have proven them guilty and they should be charged with murder.
Recently, in April 2011 there were fews deaths of children in Japan due to Vaccination. In 2010 more the 800 children have died in India after being vaccinated.
Richard, next time, for your future child’s sake do some research before posting and misleading people.

Generally those who are serious about a topic do not need to use such tactics as name-calling to make a point. I tend to wonder how certain commenters even came to reading this article. Clearly not from a genuine search for the truth. It appears that they did not carefully read the article either. For the complete picture you must look at the original papers and then read this article, which I appreciate because it specifically points out the flaws in a “peer reviewed”, “scientific” research paper. It should at the very least cause us to be less hasty to believe everything scientists, doctors, etc. tell us without question. Remember there is BIG money in the pharmaceutical business. And keep in mind that many people (including scientists, “researchers”, and doctors) are capable of unethical acts (i.e. misrepresenting data) when there is money involved. However, most doctors, nurses (I am one of them), and other medical professionals will assure you that there is no harm in vaccines. They truly believe this, but NOT because they have done the research themselves, they are simply regurgitating what they have heard over and over and over from the CDC and drug companies, etc., almost a brainwashing, which I am only recently seeing to be true. I am only on the beginning of my research, and it is extremely difficult to change ideas which have been so firmly engrained, (and ideas I have taught patients myself), but I hope that it is a topic that I will honestly approach and not be hindered or distracted by the noise would drown out the truth.

I am a healthcare provider and was initially brainwashed to believe vaccines were a blessing. I now believe the opposite is true. The trends of diseases ‘eradicated’ from vaccines were trending down even before vaccines came out- that is how the pattern of disease seems to go. It is a great case of money and power over the naive public hoping the governing bodies seek our welfare.

[…] MMR/mercury and autism (some have even reversed it by removing/chealating heavy metals), and recent research from England and Japan point to that connection. There is also an increase in allergies and autoimmune diseases including […]

The case of Sophia Wilson who died at the age of 32 does not seem to be related well to any vaccines.

Not sure why it was included on a study of harm or secondary events from vaccines?

Not sure if this girl has been exposed to GMO foods? This type of condition is exploding around the world as more and more GMO food is being eaten.

Having had a reaction myself possibly from GMO food, I now have to avoid all suspect foods as far as I am able and my money allows.

The number of people with fluctuating heart beats is rising alarmingly and is a feature once extremely rare.

Sudden Adult Death has increased and an abnormal heart beat is often the sign of trouble ahead.

This is not an illness for a pacemaker but is often treated by burning out nerves close or along the blood vessels and also by implanting a device that automatically kick starts the heart if it stops.

I know of one person very well who underwent a five hour operation after being unable to finish a normal days work. This person is also female and in her thirties and will need to take care of herself for the rest of her life.

The idea of a GMO connection is purely mine based on nothing better to consider but organophosphates might have a similar action indicating perhaps the fault of organophosphate residues now rising alarmingly as Monsanto round up herbicide is sprayed in ever larger amounts on our food and in sufficient amounts to kill every other form of plant life except glyphosate resistant GMO foods.

Several people have over the years proved over and over the harm of GMO food or even GMO technology with about half of them losing their jobs and providing a warning to people not to publish anything damaging about this Franken Food industry that is increasing to around 90 per cent of some of our foods. (American GMO soya)

Soy and other allergies have exploded as well with the rise in this GMO product. Some people even link this GMO to peanut allergy based on the resemblance of DNA in GMO and peanuts ovelapping.

Far from destroying careers we need more science to tell us all the facts and not keep them commercially confidential.

Interestingly the illness prompted an excellent TV documentary where they claimed that the illness occured in a remote north west corner of Thailand and failed to mention its significance to all of us in America and Europe and especially women if it affects them more?

[…] TampIT, I am very sorry to hear of your son's reaction to his vaccinations, I worked in handicapped schools for some years and I am still haunted by the number of parents that told me the same horrifying story. At that time I had my own infant children going thru their immunisations. Looking at the graph of the SIDS peak it corresponds to just after the 2 month vaccination (see graph below). Some years ago I did some research and found that Japan had so many adverse reactions to their 2 month vaccinations that they stopped mandatory immunisations at 2 months in the early 90's, their rate of mortality then dropped (see link below). In my search for gardisil adverse reactions while I was back working in high schools revealed a frightening number of young people afflicted after their injections. The US CDC (Centre for Disease Control) stated that some vaccination ingredients are neurotoxic, that was interesting indeed – I see that they have since removed this statement. Interesting web site reporting on cases settled for causing autism. Japanese & British Data Show Vaccines Cause Autism | ________________Child Health Safety________… […]

The first claim is too stupid for words. A graph shows change in autism risk over 5 different time periods. Some change was made to vaccination programs in 3 of them. A change was made in the period with the greatest decrease in risk; no change was made in the period with greatest increase in risk. Yet somehow the writer interprets this as meaning that “With each major change to the UK’s childhood vaccination programme cases of childhood autism increased substantially.”

[…] More studies on autism are found here Japanese & British Data Show Vaccines Cause Autism | ________________Child Health Safety________… and here British & Japanese Data Show Vaccines Cause Autism | ________________Child Health […]

I have to laugh at ‘so-called’ doctor ‘D’s tirade episode over this article. Dr. D hangs his ‘trust / arguement’ solely on a couple of shrink’s. Dr. D sounds more like ‘lawyer’ D with his lawyering ‘medspeak’.

Here’s what I know… Out of the entire Amish and Mennonite population there is ONLY 4 recorded cases of anything remotely similar to autism. 2 of the children were adopted and ‘fully vaccinated’ and one was mercury poisoned from a near by plant. ALSO…. both the Amish and Mennonite populations do NOT have ANY epidemics of ‘so-called’ vaccine preventable diseases.

Dr. Eisenstein’s practice had 35,000 patients over the years and the ONLY autistic children he had in his practice were ALL fully vaccinated.

Similar studies my family participated in, have gone through school records of vaccinated children vs non vaccinated children dating back to the 1970’s to 2014 (and on going) shows exactly what Dr. Eisenstein discovered in his own practice.

THNK GOD FOR VACCINE FREE CHILDREN the 10,000 pound elephant in vaccine injury room. How else would would we have known otherwise?