@bessie - do you see all visitors of your target, or only one? Also, I assume SDK revealed who he targeted during the course of the game? If so, who? Last night's action in particular.

@Carlington - what do you have to claim?

I don't think I've had a single successful action all game (excluding the unexpected Znirk alliance N1). N2 I redirected Carlington but he was blocked. N3 I tried to redirect adnapemit to freezeblade, which would have confirmed plytho's action had I not been blocked, as presumably freezeblade would have died...

Madge wrote:@plytho: I think freezeblade just got me mixed up with someone else

Yeah it would seem so but as bessie claimed "also watcher" I thought I missed something.

freezeblade wrote:Seeing as how I believe the SDK kill to be the mafia kill, that would put adnapemit in the prime lynch spot for today.

Why do you believe the SDK kill to be the mafia kill? Reasoning or gut feeling?

freezeblade wrote:I had a one-shot commuter power, which I used N2.

That would explain my failed actions N2.

Looking at Sabrar's abilities I think he was the scum killer the first two nights, looking for their supporter. It's possible one of the missing night kills was that recruitment. Can we deduce that based on the information we have? Did the victims of the successful night kills (2 SirGabriel incarnations) provide anything that made him look like a possible mafia supporter?

I'm guessing SDK was the scum kill, because they pushed hard against Sabrar, and is a strong player. Out of the two deaths, GoP makes less sense as a mafia kill, I think. This is all gut feelings, but I know that if I was scum, I would have shot SDK last night. I think that if this is confirmed somehow, then we should look at SDK's read list again. As a matter of fact, let's look.

SDK wrote:Town (it's actually difficult to order these - all are quite strong reads)bessieJimbobmacdoodleGopherofPernFreezebladeplythoMadge

Not sure*adnapemit - Largely unconcerned with what I've seen (ie: probably town), but has taken some stances that seem wrong (probably just wrong though, not evil?)*ahippo (replaced by SirGabriel D2) - ahippo seemed town, SirG less so. His Day 2 content did not strike me as particularly townie.

Not TownZnirk - Probably truthfully a survivor, but there was enough weirdness in his claims that mod confirmation in a message of unknown origin is not enough to clear him 100%.*Carlington - Best bet for SK, but could also be scum. 10% chance of being town.*LaserGuy - Best bet for Sabrar's scum buddy. If Sabrar flips mafia, 95% sure LaserGuy is mafia too. If Sabrar flips non-mafia, I'd give him more like 75%.Sabrar - Scum, almost certainly. Day 1 content was glaring, Day 2 content was only good in so far as his neutral discussions. Falling on the wrong side or right on the fence constantly - no reason at all to think he's town.

Belial wrote:I am not even in the same country code as "the mood for this shit."

So, if we take SDK at his word, Carlington makes a good SK candidate with his being watched last night and roleblocked on a night where we had a missing kill. Should we take care of him with the lynch?

Don't claim who you'll block, as I think we're likely looking at 2 scum and 1 SK. If you say who you'll block, they'll just kill with the other.

If I take the bottom three on my town-scum list, we have Carlington, adnapemit, and Laserguy. I still think the Mafia kill was SDK, not GoP.

Scenario 1: We lynch the SK, block the correct mafia member. Result: No night killsScenario 2: We lynch the SK, block the wrong mafia member. Result: 1 night killScenario 3: We lynch a mafia member, block one of the other two. Result: 1 night kill (but not looking so good, as indie could switch sides here, resulting in a possible town loss)Scenario 4: We suck and lynch a town. Result: We lose.

Belial wrote:I am not even in the same country code as "the mood for this shit."

I feel like based on everyone's feelings towards me this claim won't be believed anyway, but here goes. I believe myself to have been redirected, I targeted adnapemit with a vig shot. I am, in fact, JOAT. I'm not super flavour knowledgeable but if it helps - I'm the Warrior of Khanduras. I don't really know how much stock you all put in role names/flavour, but it panned out alright with my call on Lazarus, which was based off the flavour primer PM I requested D1.

LaserGuy wrote:I have nothing to report. I am the Barbarian. I have one-shot bulletproof, but if it successfully blocks a kill, I gain a one-shot vigilante kill for myself.

adnapemit claims to have targeted you last night, plytho claims she used a kill. Do you have a one-shot vig now?

Madge wrote:N2: Carlington (I originally targted jimbob because I don't want redirectors to complicate things, but I changed to Carlington after nightfall because someone had made a convincing argument for that)

Interesting. Judging from his D3 content, Carlington didn’t seem to know he was blocked N2.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote: Also, I assume SDK revealed who he targeted during the course of the game? If so, who? Last night's action in particular.

Yeah… no. How about adnapemit and LaserGuy answer those questions first.

Madge wrote:So, if we take SDK at his word, Carlington makes a good SK candidate with his being watched last night and roleblocked on a night where we had a missing kill. Should we take care of him with the lynch?

I’m a watcher, I watched SDK. Carlington visited him.

Carlington wrote:I feel like based on everyone's feelings towards me this claim won't be believed anyway, but here goes.

freezeblade wrote:Scenario 4: We suck and lynch a town. Result: We lose.

Assuming that SK/scum don't take each other out.

bessie wrote:

jimbobmacdoodle wrote: Also, I assume SDK revealed who he targeted during the course of the game? If so, who? Last night's action in particular.

Yeah… no. How about adnapemit and LaserGuy answer those questions first.

A fair request.

Time to throw a little concern around:

@Scum - if you expect my co-operation in an end game scenario, don't kill bessie. As it's not looking good for you though, I'm still siding with town.

@Town - I'm going to continue to attempt to redirect kills, since they are the main threat. Any specific requests however, I may meet. I'm not in siding-with-scum mode yet.

Carlington's claim is very convenient, given everything that's happened and been claimed so far. However, I'm uncertain which of him or adnapemit are the Serial Killer. My D2 suspicion points to Carlington and my D3 to adnapemit. Errrmmm...

@Carlington: you haven’t responded to my concerns from the end of D3 about the mismatch between your soft claim ‘everyone will know what I mean when I say I may have caused plytho’s power to fail’ and your doctor power claim. Your JOAT claim (which I predicted) does not help. It’s still not clear why you would think it’s obvious to ‘everyone’ that ‘I may have caused plytho’s power to fail’ means ‘I used the doctor power from my JOAT arsenal to protect plytho’. Bonus question: why did you target adnapemit with your vig shot?

@LaserGuy: Does your one-shot bulletproof automatically activate the first time you get targeted or did you choose to use it last night?

Regarding Sabrar’s flip: On first read I interpreted the supporter thing to be a sort of recruiting power, but after rereading it seems like Sabrar could ‘recruit’ other demons?

dimochka wrote:- As a confidant of Diablo, you've garnered some respect among the demon "community", and may be able to sway some of them to do your bidding. Should you use the night kill on an appropriate target / given the right circumstances, you may find a supporter. You are unsure, however, how Diablo will feel about your new "management" abilities.

I don’t really understand this.

Gopher of Pern had a D2 universal backup if I’m reading correctly, that means he became either doctor or cop. Can we learn anything useful from this?

@Madge: Why did you block Znirk N1? He claimed tracker, by blocking him you took away his ability to prove that. To me that looks like a scummy play to make him look more suspicious.

freezeblade wrote:I'm guessing SDK was the scum kill, because they pushed hard against Sabrar, and is a strong player. Out of the two deaths, GoP makes less sense as a mafia kill, I think. This is all gut feelings, but I know that if I was scum, I would have shot SDK last night.

GoP was pushing Sabrar before SDK was even playing. Looking back GoP was the solo vote on Sabrar N1 and N2. I think it’s perhaps more useful to look at their secondary targets? Who were they going to lynch next?

I expected that I might be killed N1 because of my miller claim, and as I recall Znirk's claim happened after I had put a VERY HEAVY "I will roleblock Znirk" breadcrumb, but close enough to deadline that I was not able to make another post (I believe - at the very least it was close enough to deadline that I didn't have the time / energy / creativity to defuse my last breadcrumb and put in a new one).

I did very seriously consider changing my target but in the end I didn't want to die, having roleblocked someone else, and have town look at my VERY CLEAR "Znirk is my RB target" breadcrumb and go down the complete wrong path. I don't want us to have bad information.

Madge @ 4:47pm Mar 04 wrote:I hate D1 but if you're an indie and you're not going to put your cards on the table to help us out, then you suck. You're distracting us and you're causing us to go down potential blind alley and mislynch (if you're pro-town). If you're anti-town, then, well, you suck for being anti town. I don't know what you're up to, but I'm going to try and stop you unless you come clean.

((vote on Znirk goes here))

Znirk @ 10:27pm Mar 06 wrote:Eh. At this point I have little to lose anyway, so why not: I'm a tracker (knowing which probably makes scum less worried, in exchange for no specific benefit to town. Seriously, townsfolk, I'm trying to find a way to be helpful here.)

Then night happened shortly after midnight (i.e. one and a half hours later). I go to bed at 9:30pm or so, I had not a snowball's chance of getting a new breadcrumb in and expected I might die so didn't want my breadcrumb to be misleading.

I targeted LaserGuy with a Vig kill since he seemed the most scummiest. I was starting to doubt if Carlington was actually scum since bessie seemed to be really pushing his lynch. Also on the slight chance that he was telling the truth about yesterday I thought it would be better to target LaserGuy. Unless someone counter claims Gillian I think that bessie is probably town.I think LaserGuy is either lying about getting a one shot kill or got the kill since I don't think there is likely anyone else that could have blocked or redirected me. (assuming everyone is telling the truth)

Carlington wrote:I feel like based on everyone's feelings towards me this claim won't be believed anyway, but here goes.

adnapemit wrote:I targeted LaserGuy with a Vig kill since he seemed the most scummiest. I was starting to doubt if Carlington was actually scum since bessie seemed to be really pushing his lynch. Also on the slight chance that he was telling the truth about yesterday I thought it would be better to target LaserGuy. Unless someone counter claims Gillian I think that bessie is probably town.I think LaserGuy is either lying about getting a one shot kill or got the kill since I don't think there is likely anyone else that could have blocked or redirected me. (assuming everyone is telling the truth)

Was your vig kill a one-shot? If not, did you target anyone the previous nights? Is this your only power? Also, where do you see bessie really pushing Carlington's lynch D3? She didn't even vote.

I have placed the above in the order I believe their claims from most to least likely.

@bessie - you haven't claimed your other night's actions yet. Is that deliberate?

@adnapemit - What is your full role? As asked elsewhere, what were your N1 and N2 actions?

I took a look back at voting, and neither adnapemit nor Carlington voted for Sabrar during the game. I think both are likely anti-town. adnapemit's reticence to reveal more about her claim so far makes me think she is marginally more likely to be lying. Carlington did have Sabrar as scummiest, but that was a while after he was under suspicion from many others, and he did leave it with quite a lot of weasel room. adnapemit also had Sabrar as scummiest, again after others had already expressed suspicion of him. Information on immediate links from that way around is pretty much even. Sabrar said almost nothing about either Carlington or adnapemit D3. One post, about the only thing he said about adnapemit, sounded genuine, to me, which makes me think they are not on the same team. Voting now in case I don't get another proper chance to post.

I'm going to be away Sat-Sunday as usual, so I'll vote before I leave tonight. We need to get rid of the SK tonight, and I'm inclined to believe SDK and other's earlier reads on that over my own (I'm terrible at indie reads, SDK has super-human mafia reads), so Carlington will likely be my vote.

Belial wrote:I am not even in the same country code as "the mood for this shit."

plytho wrote:@Carlington: you haven’t responded to my concerns from the end of D3 about the mismatch between your soft claim ‘everyone will know what I mean when I say I may have caused plytho’s power to fail’ and your doctor power claim. Your JOAT claim (which I predicted) does not help. It’s still not clear why you would think it’s obvious to ‘everyone’ that ‘I may have caused plytho’s power to fail’ means ‘I used the doctor power from my JOAT arsenal to protect plytho’. Bonus question: why did you target adnapemit with your vig shot?

I was waiting for adnapemit to post. I probably didn't need to wait because she will claim 1-shot vig with no N1 or N2 action anyway. I think we have enough that someone smarter than me should be able to figure everything out.

bessie's guess: N1 SirGabriel was probably the SK, I'm guessing Sabrar tried to kill/recruit someone and was blocked. N2 was possibly Sabrar trying to recruit ahippo/SirG (there was some speculation that ahippo claimed his name because he was a mafia supporter). If Carlington was blocked N2 and adnapemit wasn't blocked, Carlington is probably the serial killer.

plytho wrote:Regarding Sabrar’s flip: On first read I interpreted the supporter thing to be a sort of recruiting power, but after rereading it seems like Sabrar could ‘recruit’ other demons?

dimochka wrote:- As a confidant of Diablo, you've garnered some respect among the demon "community", and may be able to sway some of them to do your bidding. Should you use the night kill on an appropriate target / given the right circumstances, you may find a supporter. You are unsure, however, how Diablo will feel about your new "management" abilities.

I don’t really understand this.

The way this role usually works (and more experienced players, correct me if I’m wrong) is that the mafia recruiter (Sabrar) can only recruit one predetermined player, the mafia supporter (in this case a demon). The recruiter can't recruit anyone else and would kill them instead. This player may or may not know they are the mafia supporter/demon. Possibilities:1. There is a mafia supporter who knew they were a mafia supporter, needed to be recruited, and now can't win the game. Unlikely, they would probably have left the game with a loss when Sabrar died.2. There is a mafia supporter who knew they were a mafia supporter, was not recruited, and has an alternate win condition (town, survivor, etc). 3. There is a naïve mafia supporter that is town/indie but would have flipped to mafia if targeted by Sabrar (possibly Znirk, he was a demon, but jimbob found him first).

plytho wrote:Gopher of Pern had a D2 universal backup if I’m reading correctly, that means he became either doctor or cop. Can we learn anything useful from this?

Wild-ass-guess is that he would have taken the cop power and used it on Sabrar. I watched GoP N2 and he wasn’t roleblocked (unless ninja), and if he got a mafia result on Sabrar (or anyone else) he should have claimed, so I’m obviously not correct. Maybe he copped someone else and got a town result. I suck at breadcrumbs so if he left a clue I won’t find it. Anyone else want to take a shot at this?

adnapemit wrote:I targeted LaserGuy with a Vig kill since he seemed the most scummiest. I was starting to doubt if Carlington was actually scum since bessie seemed to be really pushing his lynch. Also on the slight chance that he was telling the truth about yesterday I thought it would be better to target LaserGuy.

adnapemit, you claim you have a not one-shot vig kill, withheld N1 and N2, and targeted LaserGuy N3. I can understand withholding your kill on N1, and maybe even N2. However, I’m not buying your reasons for targeting LaserGuy and not targeting Carlington N3. I reviewed your lists all three days.

On D3 you still had me as your towniest read and Carlington as scummier than LaserGuy. And you said this on D3:

adnapemit wrote:Opinion: There is definitly enough evidence that Carlington is scummy and I also think it is likely that he is a SK.

I’ve been hammering on Carlington hard since D1. Tunneling really. But I was still townie until N3 when you were thinking about your night action, and then for the first time you began to have enough doubt about my tunneling to switch your suspicion to LaserGuy, who you didn’t even read on D3? Ok, I have a question, if you were uncertain why did you even submit a kill N3? It’s obviously not compulsive because you didn’t have to submit one on N1 or N2.

Madge wrote:What surprises me is that Carlington's claim seems to make sense even though he's the scummiest person around here. That said he did claim last so that could explain it...

Madge, he claimed last on D2 (except for adnapemit), D3, and D4, and he had to be prodded all three days by me to claim. See my analysis of Carlington’s D1-D3 posts here and the last half of D3 here.

So great I’m feeling uneasy about Carlington and adnapemit BFD. I still think it’s likely there is one more scum out there and we need to keep looking. More later after I think about it a while.

bessie wrote:On D3 you still had me as your towniest read and Carlington as scummier than LaserGuy. And you said this on D3:

adnapemit wrote:Opinion: There is definitly enough evidence that Carlington is scummy and I also think it is likely that he is a SK.

I’ve been hammering on Carlington hard since D1. Tunneling really. But I was still townie until N3 when you were thinking about your night action, and then for the first time you began to have enough doubt about my tunneling to switch your suspicion to LaserGuy, who you didn’t even read on D3? Ok, I have a question, if you were uncertain why did you even submit a kill N3? It’s obviously not compulsive because you didn’t have to submit one on N1 or N2.

I still consider you townie but started to wonder if I was being influenced by your post too much so I'd rather his death be decided by lynch (which seemed likely yesterday). I am not always good at judging scum but there seemed to be a better chance of me being right after so many non scum deaths and I dislike not using an ability I have seems a waste when I can use it to help.

plytho wrote:Regarding Sabrar’s flip: On first read I interpreted the supporter thing to be a sort of recruiting power, but after rereading it seems like Sabrar could ‘recruit’ other demons?

dimochka wrote:- As a confidant of Diablo, you've garnered some respect among the demon "community", and may be able to sway some of them to do your bidding. Should you use the night kill on an appropriate target / given the right circumstances, you may find a supporter. You are unsure, however, how Diablo will feel about your new "management" abilities.

I don’t really understand this.

The way this role usually works (and more experienced players, correct me if I’m wrong) is that the mafia recruiter (Sabrar) can only recruit one predetermined player, the mafia supporter (in this case a demon). The recruiter can't recruit anyone else and would kill them instead. This player may or may not know they are the mafia supporter/demon. Possibilities:1. There is a mafia supporter who knew they were a mafia supporter, needed to be recruited, and now can't win the game. Unlikely, they would probably have left the game with a loss when Sabrar died.2. There is a mafia supporter who knew they were a mafia supporter, was not recruited, and has an alternate win condition (town, survivor, etc). 3. There is a naïve mafia supporter that is town/indie but would have flipped to mafia if targeted by Sabrar (possibly Znirk, he was a demon, but jimbob found him first).

Thanks, I think scenario 3 seems the most likely here. I believe freezeblade pointed out Sabrar buddying Znirk so Znirk makes sense as Sabrar’s target N1.This failed because Sabrar was in jail.

I'm still wondering what "You are unsure, however, how Diablo will feel about your new "management" abilities." might mean?

bessie wrote:

plytho wrote:Gopher of Pern had a D2 universal backup if I’m reading correctly, that means he became either doctor or cop. Can we learn anything useful from this?

Wild-ass-guess is that he would have taken the cop power and used it on Sabrar. I watched GoP N2 and he wasn’t roleblocked (unless ninja), and if he got a mafia result on Sabrar (or anyone else) he should have claimed, so I’m obviously not correct. Maybe he copped someone else and got a town result. I suck at breadcrumbs so if he left a clue I won’t find it. Anyone else want to take a shot at this?

Gopher’s first post D3:

Gopher of Pern wrote:So, is everyone convinced that Znirk is a survivor now? (Well, not really. They still have a chance at winning.)

And who has it out for SirGabriel? Two nights, two deaths. Although, this one could have been his own doing, protecting someone else. If only we had a tracker...oh, we lynched them.

We've also lost a one-shot vig. Who may have tipped the scales in towns favour.

Given what's happened, my top three scum picks are Sabrar, plytho, and Carlington. Plytho flip flopped a bit too much for my liking yesterday. Screams of scum attempting to look towny, but doesn't want their reads analysed too much. Sabrar, well, I've maintained that they are scum since day c1, and I still think that is likely. I'm less sure of Carlington, but the way the lynch went down may suggest scum buddies saving their own by jumping on the Znirk bandwagon. If so, freezeblade, plytho, and laserguy are likely scumbuddies.

Sabrar, I wonder why you discount laserguy. Although there was no bandwagon on Carlington at the time of his vote, it's still a 'safe' vote for a claimed survivor. There were other options (you had two votes at the time, Carlington had one. There excuse also screams like a scum tell, with no strong scummy leads, and something fishy with Znirk. In fact, I think I've just upped laserguy to potentially scummy.

The first letter of every paragraph spells SAWGS. Not sure if there’s any meaning in that but it might mean GoP saw something (I can’t interpret what GS could stand for).

What happened N3 is as follows:Town!adnapemit targeted me with her Vig kill. This was redirected to freezeblade by jimbob.SK!freezeblade is NK immune, so that kill was blocked. SK!freezeblade targets Gopher of Pern and kills him.Carlington uses the mafia NK on SDK.

freezeblade likely did commute on N2. He probably has the option of commuting or NK each night. That also explains why there was only one kill on N2 (he was commuting)... only the mafia NK came through.