Sheil Kapadia

Philly.com

In order to better form an educated guess at how Maclin might perform next season, I took a look at how his rookie numbers compared to other first-year receivers since 2004.

I focused on receiving yards as the criteria for selecting this group, but also included their other stats. The following chart shows the 10 receivers whose yardage totals during their rookie seasons most resembled Maclin's total of 773:

Player

Catches

Yds.

TDs

YPC

Rookie Year

Jeremy Maclin

56

773

4

13.8

2009

Larry Fitzgerald

58

780

8

13.4

2004

Calvin Johnson

48

756

4

15.8

2007

Keary Colbert

47

754

5

16.0

2004

Roy Williams

54

817

8

15.1

2004

Santonio Holmes

49

824

2

16.8

2006

Lee Evans

48

843

9

17.6

2004

Donnie Avery

53

674

3

12.7

2008

DeSean Jackson

62

912

2

14.7

2008

Greg Jennings

45

632

3

14.0

2006

Anthony Gonzalez

37

576

3

15.6

2007

Not bad company, huh?

And here's how those 10 players performed in Year 2:

Player

Catches

Yds.

TDs

YPC

Larry Fitzgerald

103

1,409

10

13.7

Calvin Johnson

78

1,331

12

17.1

Keary Colbert

25

282

2

11.3

Roy Williams

45

687

8

15.3

Santonio Holmes

52

942

8

18.1

Lee Evans

48

743

7

15.5

Donnie Avery

47

589

5

12.5

DeSean Jackson

63

1,167

9

18.5

Greg Jennings

53

920

12

17.4

Anthony Gonzalez

57

664

4

11.6

And finally, differential from Year 1 to Year 2:

Player

Catches

Yds.

TDs

YPC

Larry Fitzgerald

+45

+629

+2

-0.3

Calvin Johnson

+30

+575

+8

+1.3

Keary Colbert

-22

-472

-3

-4.7

Roy Williams

-9

-130

0

+0.2

Santonio Holmes

+3

+118

+3

+1.3

Lee Evans

0

-100

-2

-2.1

Donnie Avery

-6

-85

+2

-0.2

DeSean Jackson

+1

+255

+7

+3.8

Greg Jennings

+8

+288

+9

+3.4

Anthony Gonzalez

+20

+88

+1

-4.0

Totals:

+70

+1,166

+30

-1.3

Averages:

+7.0

+116.6

+3

-0.13

So what can we conclude from the numbers? Here are some notes and observations:

* Six of the 10 receivers had more catches in their second years; one had the same; and three had fewer. Six of the 10 were within 10 catches (plus or minus) of their totals as rookies.

* Six of the 10 receivers had more receiving yards in their second years; four had fewer. Seven of the 10 had more touchdowns as sophomores; one had the same; and two had fewer.

* The most dramatic improvements were Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson. The most dramatic dropoff was Keary Colbert.

* Every one of the 10 guys on the list were taken in the first or second round of the draft. The highest picks were Johnson (second overall) and Fitzgerald (third overall). The lowest pick was Colbert (62nd overall).

* If Maclin falls in line with the averages, he'll project to 63 catches for 890 yards and seven touchdowns. But obviously there are several variables. It'll be Kevin Kolb, not Donovan McNabb throwing Maclin the football. Also, remember that Maclin missed a portion of training camp last year as a rookie.

* Last year at Lehigh, DeSean Jackson was the Eagles' most impressive player. When Maclin got on the practice field, his talent was evident, but I was skeptical of him having an immediate impact and picking up the offense right away. I was wrong. He came in and played very well. It'll be interesting to see how different Maclin looks this year at Lehigh.

* So, based on what you see above, what are your projections for Maclin in his second season?