The International Institute for Strategic Studies is an independent
centre for research, information and debate on the problems
of conflict, however caused, that have, or potentially have, an
important military content. The Council and Staff of the Institute
are international and its membership is drawn from over 90
countries. The Institute is independent and it alone decides what
activities to conduct. It owes no allegiance to any government,
any group of governments or any political or other organisation.
The IISS stresses rigorous research with a forward-looking policy
orientation and places particular emphasis on bringing new
perspectives to the strategic debate.

Singapore – have for many years consistently sent
strong delegations led by ministers to the Shangri-La
Dialogue; other governments have also strengthened their delegations over time. In 2008, Canada’s
defence minister participated for the first time, and
Myanmar and Vietnam both elevated their representation to deputy-minister level. In 2009, Vietnam was
represented at full ministerial level for the first time;
in 2010, Russia’s deputy prime minister participated
and spoke in plenary. From time to time, the IISS has
also invited additional countries keenly interested in
Asia-Pacific regional security, such as Chile, Tonga
and, in 2013, Papua New Guinea, to send their defence
ministers. In 2014, it was notable that Vietnam’s delegation was particularly strong: Minister of National
Defense General Phung Quang Thanh led a team that

Air Marshal Mark Binskin, Chief of Defence Force, Australia; and General
Phung Quang Thanh, Minister of National Defense, Vietnam

also included the Deputy Minister of Defense and four
other officers of general rank.

Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sihasak Phungketkeow,

The extent to which the Shangri-La Dialogue has

who was accompanied by the defence ministry’s per-

become an important fixture in the calendars of Asia-

manent secretary, the deputy chief of defence forces,

Pacific defence and security establishments has been

and senior officials from his own ministry.

evident in the participation of national delegations in

Increasingly open debate during the Shangri-La

spite of domestic developments and crises. In 2008, for

Dialogue has helped to foster and facilitate substan-

example, China and Myanmar both sent high-level dele-

tive cooperation on important security issues, and over

gations despite having recently suffered serious natural

the years ministers have used the Dialogue as a plat-

disasters at home. In 2010, though a political crisis in

form from which to propose and advance initiatives

Japan led to the resignation of Prime Minister Yukio

in areas as diverse as maritime security cooperation in

Hatoyama and his replacement by Naoto Kan only

the Malacca Strait, the analysis of the implications of

the day before the Dialogue began, Japan’s new leader

regional states’ expanding submarine capabilities, the

ensured that Minister of Defence Toshimi Kitazawa

regional proliferation of small arms and light weap-

could attend and speak as planned, underlining the

ons, the structure of the regional security architecture,

importance that Tokyo assigns to security matters and

and the idea of a ‘no first use of force’ agreement in the

the Shangri-La Dialogue’s standing as the key regional

South China Sea. In 2014, it was China’s Deputy Chief

defence and security forum. In 2012, Thailand’s Minister

of General Staff, Lieutenant-General Wang Guanzhong,

of Defence, Air Chief Marshal Sukumpol Suwanatat,

who made the most comprehensive range of propos-

came to the Dialogue despite a brewing domestic

als for enhancing regional security. Lieutenant-General

political crisis that meant he had to return to Bangkok

Wang argued for: deepened dialogue and exchanges

during the course of the weekend. In 2013, the new

between regional states’ defence establishments, includ-

Malaysian defence minister, Dato’Seri Hishammuddin

ing through the ASEAN-China Defence Ministers’

bin Tun Hussein, came to the Dialogue despite having

Meeting scheduled for 2015; a ‘Silk Road Economic

only taken up the portfolio two weeks earlier follow-

Belt’ and ‘a twenty-first century maritime Silk Road’,

ing a general election. And in 2014, despite the military

which would include strengthened regional coopera-

coup in Thailand only eight days before the Dialogue

tion on counter-terrorism, disaster relief and protecting

commenced, that country was represented by a strong

sea-lines of communication; closer disaster relief coop-

delegation led by the Permanent Secretary and Acting

eration, including an ASEAN Regional Forum disaster

Introduction

9

relief exercise that China and Malaysia would co-host
in 2015; and enhanced maritime cooperation, particularly through the China-ASEAN Maritime Cooperation
Fund, which would be used to support joint search-andrescue operations and hotlines; and the more effective
management of ‘differences’ through strengthened
communication among regional countries.
Government delegations to the Shangri-La Dialogue
have increasingly used it as a venue for private bilateral and trilateral meetings with defence and security
partners. The detailed content of these meetings, which
have become more numerous each year, has naturally
remained confidential. Over time, though, such meetings have become more transparent, with governments’
more often divulging at least elements of their substance in public statements. Among the numerous such

meetings held on the side-lines of the 2014 Dialogue,
US Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel and China’s

beginning served to animate and enrich the summit’s

Lieutenant-General Wang Guanzhong, in which Hagel

proceedings, particularly through the questions such

‘reiterated the United States’ position that all regional

delegates regularly pose to ministerial and other speak-

disputes be solved peacefully, through diplomacy and

ers in the plenary and special sessions. As usual, many

in keeping with international law’, while encouraging

of the non-official delegates at the Dialogue in 2014

China ‘to foster more dialogue and deeper relation-

were leading academics and think-tank analysts at the

ships with neighboring relations’. Secretary Hagel,

forefront of debate on Asia-Pacific security (includ-

South Korea’s Minister of National Defense Kim Kwan-

ing a good number of younger faces), but they also

jin, and Japan’s Minister of Defense Itsunori Onodera

included a strong cohort of journalists and bloggers

used their countries’ fifth annual trilateral defence

on regional affairs, as well as private sector represen-

meeting not only to discuss regional security issues

tatives. From the time of the first Dialogue in 2002, to

including North Korean provocations, but also to reaf-

which then-Senator Chuck Hagel led a strong, bipar-

firm the ‘importance of information-sharing on North

tisan US Congressional Delegation, the IISS has also

Korean nuclear and missile threats’. The 2014 Dialogue

been particularly keen to involve parliamentarians with

again also provided an opportunity for the US defense

strong defence, security and foreign affairs interests. In

secretary and the defence ministers of Australia and

2014, legislators participating in the Dialogue included

Japan to hold a trilateral meeting. As well as exchang-

Fu Ying (Chairperson, Foreign Affairs Committee,

ing views on regional security, Secretary Hagel and

National People’s Congress, China), Reinhard Bütikofer

his Australian counterpart ‘welcomed and supported

(Member of the European Parliament), Tarun Vijay

Japan’s recent efforts to play a greater role in regional

(Member of Parliament, Upper House, India), Mikhail

and global security’. On occasion, official delegations

Margelov (Chairman, Committee for Foreign Affairs,

have also met with private-sector representatives. In

Council of the Federation, Russia), Lord Howell of

2014, Vietnamese Minister of National Defense General

Guildford (Member, House of Lords, United Kingdom)

Phung Quang Thanh held a ‘working session’ with

and Senator Ben Cardin (Chairman, Senate Foreign

senior managers of the US company, Lockheed Martin.

Relations Subcommittee on East Asian and Pacific

The Shangri-La Dialogue has remained above all

Affairs, US).

a ‘Track One’ inter-governmental meeting. However,

By replenishing each year the cohort of academic

participation by ‘non-official’ delegates has from the

experts, distinguished journalists, legislators and busi-

10

The Shangri-La Dialogue

ness delegates invited to the Dialogue, and by making

China Sea. At the same time, though, there was an even

constant efforts to increase the diversity of non-official

wider consensus – one that included China – on both

delegates from across the Asia-Pacific region, the IISS

the objective need and the practical usefulness of multi-

has continually expanded awareness of the institution

lateral regional collaboration on humanitarian and dis-

in the wider policy community concerned with defence

aster relief (HADR) and search-and-rescue (SAR). This

and security. The IISS has also sought to involve senior

latter consensus reflected not only the serious gaps in

representatives of relevant international and inter-state

cooperative capacity revealed by the impact on the

bodies. At the 2014 Shangri-La Dialogue, these included

region of Typhoon Haiyan in late 2013 and of the search

the Head of Operations for East Asia, Southeast Asia

for the missing Malaysian airliner MH370 in early 2014,

and the Pacific from the International Committee of

but also a determination to identify areas of common

the Red Cross, and the Chairman of the North Atlantic

interest where regional cooperation was possible, with

Treaty Organization’s Military Committee.

a view to building confidence and trust as well securing practical benefits. In their plenary addresses, Singapore’s minister for defence, Dr Ng Eng Hen, broached

INTER-STATE SECURITY CONCERNS
AT THE FOREFRONT

Singapore’s proposal for a regional coordination centre

Because of the Asia-Pacific region’s great geographical

minister, David Johnston, suggested ‘a regular multilat-

scope, the breadth of the Shangri-La Dialogue’s mem-

eral search and rescue exercise’ intended to consolidate

bership across the region, and the sheer diversity of the

the lessons learned from the search for MH370 and to

region’s security challenges, the IISS has always ensured

‘strengthen interoperability’.

for humanitarian and disaster relief, while Australia’s

that the agenda for the Dialogue’s plenary and special

The first Shangri-La Dialogue in 2002 saw the begin-

sessions is wide-ranging. While there is no confected

ning of a tradition that the meeting commences with

overarching ‘theme’ for the agenda of each annual Dia-

an address by a leading regional political figure at the

logue, the emphasis each year has been on what the IISS

opening dinner on the Friday evening. In that year,

sees as the most important contemporary and emerging

Singapore’s Senior Minister (later Minister Mentor) Lee

regional security challenges. At the 2014 Dialogue, the

Kuan Yew made the opening remarks, and in subse-

agenda squarely reflected the acute inter-state security

quent years Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong and Senior

issues that since the previous year’s meeting had been

Minister (later Emeritus Senior Minister) Goh Chok

preoccupying governments in the region and those

Tong delivered speeches. In 2009 Prime Minister Kevin

with important stakes in its security. It was these inter-

Rudd of Australia was the first leader of a country other

state issues that preoccupied most of the ministers who

than Singapore to address the opening dinner. He was

made plenary addresses and also the speakers in some

followed in 2010 by President Lee Myung-bak of the

of the special sessions. The rising tensions between

Republic of Korea, in 2011 by Prime Minister Dato’ Sri

China and other regional states as a result of territorial

Mohd Najib Tun Abdul Razak of Malaysia, in 2012 by

disputes in the East China Sea and South China Sea, and

President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono from Indonesia,

particularly the contention between China and Japan,

and in 2013 by Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung of

was a major focus for discussion and controversy at the

Vietnam. At the 2014 Dialogue, Prime Minister Shinzo

most recent Dialogue. There was considerable consen-

Abe of Japan spoke. In his address, Prime Minister Abe

sus among governmental speakers and delegates from

emphasised the theme that Asia’s continued prosperity

many (but not all) participant countries on the impor-

depended on ‘rock solid’ peace and stability, which in

tance of using international law as the basis for man-

turn required that ‘all countries must observe interna-

aging and resolving territorial disputes in the region

tional law’. He also stressed Japan’s intent to expand its

and also on the more specific matter of the need for the

role in ensuring regional and global security.

speedy establishment of an effective Code of Conduct in

In the opening plenary session of the Dialogue’s

order to prevent any escalation of tensions in the South

Saturday morning, US Secretary of Defense Chuck

Introduction

11

minister for defence, Dr Ng Eng Hen, spoke about
how more agile and effective conflict management
might most effectively be ensured in the Asia-Pacific.
Minister Le Drian examined the lessons that France
had learned from its experience of crisis prevention
and management. Dr Ng talked about the need for
stronger regional mechanisms and multilateral frameworks, military-to-military cooperation, and concerted
action in order to protect ‘common goods’ in the context of a region where the ‘temperature’ had risen.
On the Saturday afternoon of the Dialogue, a total
of twenty distinguished speakers including ministers
of defence (one of them also holding the post of prime
minister), deputy ministers, chiefs of defence force
Ian Irving, Chief Executive Australia, Northrop Grumman Corporation; and
Senator David Johnston, Minister for Defence, Australia

and other senior military commanders, high-ranking
defence and foreign affairs ministry officials, and highlevel representatives of Chinese and Russian research

Hagel underscored the enduring nature of the United

institutes, made opening remarks in five special ses-

States’ strategic presence and role in the Asia-Pacific,

sions on ‘The challenges of maintaining and managing

and challenged China’s assertive behaviour in regional

open seas’, ‘The impact of new military capabilities in

waters. In the second plenary, Japanese Defence Min-

the Asia-Pacific’, ‘Climate change, HADR, and secu-

ister Itsunori Onodera, the United Kingdom’s Sec-

rity in the Asia-Pacific’, ‘ASEAN and the emerging

retary of State for Defence, Philip Hammond, and

regional security order’, and ‘The future of North

Malaysian Defence Minister Dato’ Seri Hishammud-

Korea: implications for regional security’. Members of

din bin Tun Hussein, presented their countries’ views

IISS directing and senior staff chaired these sessions,

on the prospects for military and security cooperation

all of which were – like the plenary sessions – ‘on the

in the region and more widely. In the third plenary,

record’ and open to media delegates.

Indonesian Defence Minister Purnomo Yusgiantoro,
new Australian Defence Minister David Johnston,
and Vietnam’s Minister of National Defense, General

LOOKING TO THE FUTURE

Phung Quang Thanh, talked from their national per-

At the end of the final plenary session of the 2014

spectives about the importance of common norms and

Shangri-La Dialogue, IISS Director-General and Chief

international law in managing strategic tensions in the

Executive Dr John Chipman noted in his conclud-

Asia-Pacific.

ing remarks that two themes had emerged over the

On the following day, the fourth plenary ses-

course of the Dialogue: the requirement ‘at every

sion provided an opportunity for Chinese Deputy

turn’ to uphold and respect international law; and

Chief of the General Staff Lieutenant-General Wang

the need to work towards greater transparency, so

Guanzhong and Russian Deputy Minister of Defence,

that ‘proclaimed norms’ may ‘in some fashion be

Anatoly Antonov, to examine regional security from

enforced’. Dr Chipman also commented that, while

their respective major power viewpoints. Lieutenant-

delegates had heard a great deal about history at the

General Wang’s presentation was notable for his

2014 Shangri-La Dialogue, much of the discussion

departure from his original script in order to respond

was ‘future-oriented’, including a focus on the devel-

at some length to earlier remarks by Japanese Prime

opment of norms for the future. The 2014 Shangri-La

Minister Abe and US Defense Secretary Hagel.

Dialogue had perhaps been the most successful so far,

In the fifth and final plenary session, French
Defence Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian and Singapore’s
12

The Shangri-La Dialogue

because the debate there had been both transparent
and future-oriented.

SIMULTANEOUS SPECIAL SESSIONS
Saturday 31 May 2014
Session 1
The challenges of maintaining and managing open seas
Session 2
The impact of new military capabilities in the Asia-Pacific
Session 3
Climate change, HADR, and security in the Asia-Pacific
Session 4
ASEAN and the emerging regional security order
Session 5
The future of North Korea: Implications for
regional security

SPECIAL SESSION 1

The challenges of maintaining
and managing open seas

Click for transcript and audio

CHAIR

There was substantial agreement in this session on the

Dr Wenguang Shao

importance of maintaining open seas, given the crucial

Consulting Senior Fellow for China and International

role that freedom of navigation has played in promot-

Affairs, IISS; Managing Director, Phoenix Chinese

ing prosperity, particularly in the Asia-Pacific: there

News and Entertainment Company

are state, commercial and individual interests at stake.
Confirming Beijing’s subscription to these common

OPENING REMARKS

interests, one delegate noted China hosted six of

Fu Ying

the world’s eight largest container ports. Attention

Chairperson of the Foreign Affairs Committee,

quickly turned to more contentious issues: manag-

National People’s Congress, China

ing freedom of navigation within national Exclusive

Shinsuke Sugiyama
Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs, Japan

Economic Zones (EEZs) and in zones where claimed
EEZs overlap. In discussing the principle of freedom
of navigation, including for military assets, within

EEZs, the session heard that the implications of challenges to this right extend beyond Asia. Some 38% of
all ocean territory is within EEZs, as are all major maritime chokepoints.
The session discussed the usefulness of UNCLOS
in managing overlapping claims to EEZs, in particular given the convention’s lack of enforcement

surveillance and command and control technologies
could also enhance regional armed forces’ capacity to
respond to humanitarian emergencies.
The Chinese perspective highlighted the risks
posed by nuclear-weapons proliferation, including by North Korea and potentially non-state actors.

Moreover, in the Chinese view, ballistic missile
defences and US global conventional strike concepts
are both destabilising. Militarisation of the global commons, particularly outer space and cyber-space, was
also of concern. Both economic growth and insecurity are driving regional armed forces’ modernisation,
and more states are deploying air-capable ships and

possessed the capacity to play a more assertive part.
Participants agreed that ASEAN – despite its inadequa-

OPENING REMARKS

cies in decision-making and coherence – has emerged

Sihasak Phuangketkeow

as a central actor in regional affairs. Amy Searight from

Permanent Secretary of Foreign Affairs, Thailand

the US Department of Defense said that Americans
have moved away from old debates questioning the

Peter Varghese
Secretary, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade,

need for Washington to engage with ASEAN. The US

Australia

now seeks to accelerate such engagement. The fact
that US Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel had visited

Dr Amy Searight
Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for South and

Southeast Asia five times in just over a year testified to

Southeast Asia, US

Washington’s interest in the sub-region. The US also

Dr Dino Patti Djalal
Senior Diplomat, Ministry of Foreign Affairs,

viewed with satisfaction the multilateral exercises conducted by the ADMM-Plus in 2013.
Optimism about ASEAN’s prospects was quali-

Indonesia

fied by calls for the group to play a more assertive
role in regional security. There was clearly difficulty
on ASEAN’s part in finding a coherent strategy that
could help Southeast Asia and the wider region

Shangri-La dialogue: Japan
PM Abe urges security role
Japan’s PM says his country will play a greater role in
regional security and support South-East Asian countries
in territorial disputes with China.
Shinzo Abe made the comments at the Shangri-La
Dialogue in Singapore.
The three-day summit involves the US and SouthEast Asian countries, and comes amid growing tensions
between China, Vietnam and the Philippines.
Chinese officials said Mr Abe was using the “myth” of a
China threat to strengthen Japan’s security policy.
Japan-China ties have also been strained over disputed
islands in the East China Sea.
‘Seas and skies’
Mr Abe gave the keynote address at the Shangri-La
Dialogue, also known as the Asia Security Summit, on
Friday.
Japan, he said, would play “a more proactive role than it
has until now in making peace in Asia and the world something more certain”.
“Japan will offer its utmost support for the efforts of
the countries of Asean [Association of Southeast Asian
Nations] as they work to ensure the security of the seas and
the skies.”
Mr Abe added that he supported efforts by the
Philippines and Vietnam to resolve territorial disputes with
China.
Earlier this month, the Japanese prime minister called
for a new interpretation of the country’s constitution,
which currently bans “the threat or use of force” to settle
international disputes.
China, which had parts of its territory occupied by Japan
during World War Two, has criticised the move.
On Friday, Chinese Vice-Foreign Minister Fu Ying, who
is also at the summit, said Mr Abe was “trying to amend

66

The Shangri-La Dialogue

the security policy of Japan” in a move that was “worrying
for the region”.
Mr Abe had exacerbated regional tensions and the
“myth” that China was “posing a threat to Japan”, she
added.
Analysts say that although some Asean members will
be reluctant to antagonise China because of their economic
and political ties, others are likely to welcome an increased
role from Japan.
‘Overplaying its hand’
China continues to unsettle its neighbours after declaring
an air defence zone in the East China Sea and taking a more
confrontational stance over disputed islands in the South
China Sea, the BBC’s Sharanjit Leyl in Singapore reports.
The forum is a chance for senior delegates from the
region to meet face to face and attempt to resolve tensions,
our correspondent adds.
Beijing claims a U-shaped swathe of the South China
Sea that covers areas other South-East Asian nations say
are their territory.
On Tuesday, a Vietnamese fishing boat sank after it collided with a Chinese vessel near a controversial oil rig in
the South China Sea, with both countries blaming the other
for the incident.
Vietnam has protested against China moving its oil rig
to waters also claimed by Hanoi, at a spot near the disputed
Paracel Islands.
Meanwhile, the Philippines is in the process of taking
China to a UN court over its territorial claims in the South
China Sea.
US Defence Secretary Chuck Hagel said he would use
the summit to raise issues “where we think China is overplaying its hand and presenting new challenges”.
Analysis: Jonathan Marcus, BBC diplomatic correspondent:
“Mr Abe wants to step up support for countries locked in
maritime disputes with Beijing. He condemned those who
wished to “consolidate changes to the status quo” by dictating to others - another stab at China.
Mr Abe wants to change Japan’s post-war consensus to
allow the country to take a more active role in collective

U.S. Sway in Asia Is Imperiled as
China Challenges Alliances
By Helene Cooper and Jane Perlez
SINGAPORE — The Obama administration’s threeyear-old plan to shift its foreign policy focus to Asia was
supposed to shore up interests in a critical region, push new
free trade pacts and re-establish United States influence as
a balance to a growing China, after a decade of inattention.
But as Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel visited this
city-state for a security conference with all of the interested
parties on Friday, that much-vaunted Asia policy appeared
to be turning into more of a neighborhood street fight, with
the United States having to simultaneously choose sides
and try to play the role of referee.
All around Asia, China is pushing and probing at
America’s alliances, trying to loosen the bonds that have
kept the countries close to Washington and allowed the
United States to be the pre-eminent power in the region
since World War II.
In just the past week, China traded punches with Vietnam
and Japan. A Chinese fishing vessel rammed and sank a
Vietnamese fishing boat on Monday near a Chinese deepwater oil rig that was placed in disputed waters off the coast
of Vietnam. That confrontation followed a close encounter
last Saturday in which two pairs of Chinese fighter jets flew
close to Japanese surveillance and electronic intelligence
planes, in disputed airspace claimed by both countries.
By itself, neither encounter rises to the level of the transPacific standoff that occurred in the East China Sea last year
after China asserted military authority over airspace that
included uninhabited islands claimed by Japan.
But taken together, those episodes form a pattern of
escalating maritime and air tensions in the Pacific that have
frustrated and worried American officials.
In his strongest words yet on the territorial disputes,
Mr. Hagel on Saturday morning implicitly accused China
of “intimidation and coercion” as he delivered his keynote

address to the conference. China has called the South China Sea
“a sea of peace, friendship and cooperation,” Mr. Hagel said.
“But in recent months, China has undertaken destabilizing,
unilateral actions asserting its claims in the South China Sea.”
China’s goal is to show Washington that if it maintains
alliances in Asia, it risks a fight with Beijing, said Hugh
White, a former senior Australian defense official who
worked closely with Washington and is now professor of
strategic studies at the Australian National University.
“China is deliberately doing these things to demonstrate
the unsustainability of the American position of having a
good relationship with China and maintaining its alliances
in Asia, which constitute the leadership of the United States
in Asia,” Mr. White said.
China is betting that America, tired and looking inward,
will back off, he said, eroding its traditional place of influence in Asia and enhancing China’s power.
But even as Mr. Hagel and the United States have
adopted a public posture that backs Japan — and, to a lesser
extent, the Philippines, Vietnam and any other country that
finds itself at odds with China — some administration officials have privately expressed frustration that the countries
are all engaged in a game of chicken that could lead to war.
“None of those countries are helping matters,” a senior
administration official said. The official, who spoke on the
condition of anonymity in order to talk candidly about
American policy, said that the United States would publicly back Japan and that treaty obligations mean that if
Japan and China go to war, the United States will almost
certainly be dragged into it. But, he added, administration
officials have privately prodded their Japanese counterparts to think carefully before acting, and to refrain from
backing China into a corner.
“If these are kids in the schoolyard, they are running
around with scissors,” said Vikram J. Singh, who until
February was the United States deputy assistant secretary
of defense for South and Southeast Asia and is now the vice
president for national security at the Center for American
Progress. “Wars start from small things, often by accident
and miscalculation — like dangerous maneuvers by aircraft that result in a collision or aggressive moves that lead
to an unexpected military response.”
Speaking at the opening session of the conference on
Friday, Japan’s prime minister, Shinzo Abe, who has had
a role in stirring tensions in the region by embracing a
more assertive military stance, bypassed a question about
whether he was willing to go to war with China over the
disputed islands in the East China Sea, which Japan calls
the Senkaku and China calls the Diaoyu. Instead, he said
cryptically that it was “important that we all make efforts”
so that certain “contingencies can be prevented.”
Mr. Hagel and the large American military contingent
on hand, including Gen. Martin E. Dempsey, the chairman
of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Adm. Samuel J. Locklear

Selected press coverage

67

III, the commander of the United States Pacific Command,
spent their time shuttling from delegation to delegation to
make sure those contingencies did not come up.
“Any good teacher knows that you want to get the kids
to behave in the first place, rather than try to referee a dispute that breaks out,” said Andrew L. Oros, an associate
professor of political science at Washington College in
Chestertown, Md., and a specialist on East Asia.
But showing how deep some of the enmity runs, a
Chinese officer in the audience took Mr. Abe to task for his
visit last year to the Yasukuni Shrine, which honors Japan’s
war dead, including several war criminals who were
executed after Japan’s defeat in World War II. The visit
angered China and South Korea, which suffered under
Japan’s empire-building efforts in the 20th century, and it
annoyed the United States, which issued a statement calling the visit “an action that will exacerbate tensions with
Japan’s neighbors.”
“Millions of people in China, Korea and many countries
in this region have been killed by the Japanese Army,” the
Chinese officer said, asking whether Mr. Abe planned to
honor them. Mr. Abe spoke of the remorse that Japan felt
after World War II. But he added that it was common for
world leaders to honor those who fought for their country.
While much of the maritime and air disputes go back to
ancient territorial claims, the Obama administration may
have fanned the tensions with its shift toward Asia, some
foreign policy experts said. Many Chinese believe that shift
is intended to check China’s rise.
“For that reason, you cannot expect China to welcome
the alliance system because it doesn’t serve China’s interest,” said Wu Xinbo, the director of the Center for American
Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai.
China’s president, Xi Jinping, gave a strong hint of his
objectives in a speech in Shanghai on May 19, when he outlined a new Asian security strategy that would deliberately
exclude the United States, analysts said.
“We need to innovate our security concepts, establish a
new regional security cooperation architecture and jointly
build a shared win-win road for Asian security,” Mr. Xi said
at the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building
Measures in Asia, a group that includes China, Russia and
Asian countries but not the United States, according to the
state-run news agency Xinhua.
At another conference, in Beijing, Adm. Sun Jianguo, the
deputy chief of the general staff of the People’s Liberation
Army, expanded on Mr. Xi’s ideas, describing the American
alliance system as an antiquated relic of the Cold War that
should be replaced by an Asia-centric security architecture,
participants said.
As word filtered through the region about Mr. Xi’s new
concept — so far, only sketched in a bare-bones outline — it
was referred to as “ ‘Asia for Asians,’ which means China
decides as the biggest guy on the block,” said a senior Asian

Japan’s Abe pledges greater
role in Asia-Pacific security,
as Chinese power grows
By Karen DeYoung
SINGAPORE — Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said
Friday that his country was ready to take a stronger role
in collective defense in the Asia-Pacific area and beyond,
and made clear that he views China as the most immediate
threat to regional stability.
“Japan intends to play an even greater and more proactive role than it has until now in making peace in Asia
and the world something more certain,” Abe told a gathering of East Asian defense ministers and officials, including
U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel, gathered here for the
annual Shangri-La Dialogue on regional security.
Abe’s muscular remarks echoed a nationally televised
address he made in Japan this month calling for a reinterpretation of Japan’s post-World War II constitution to
expand the role of its military to aid allies and in U.N.
peacekeeping operations. The use of Japan’s military for
anything other than self-defense has been banned since the
aftermath of the war, and Abe’s proposed change is controversial there.
He said that Japan’s “new banner” would be used to
help “ensure the security of the seas and the skies, and
thoroughly maintain freedom of navigation and freedom
of overflight,” a direct challenge to China’s increasingly
confrontational actions in disputed waters of the South
China Sea and East China Sea.
In recent weeks, China has flown military jets near the
Japanese-administered Senkaku islands it claims in the
East China Sea and has charged that Japanese fighters have
entered a disputed air zone between the two countries.
China is also in disputes with its neighbors farther
south, including Vietnam, the Philippines and Malaysia,
over nearly all of the South China Sea, with its busy international shipping lanes and rich oil and gas resources.
Nearly all those governments have had direct clashes with
Beijing; the Philippines has asked the International Court
of Justice in The Hague to intervene, and anti-China riots
broke out this month in Vietnam after China positioned an
oil rig in waters claimed by both countries.
The territorial and maritime disputes have stymied U.S.
efforts to protect its own economic and defense interests

Litmus test of ability to
keep peace in Asia
By Alex Neill
ASIA’S security has declined since the last Shangri-La
Dialogue in Singapore, where the focus of Vietnamese
Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung’s opening speech was the
strategic trust deficit in the region. Referring to the South
China Sea, he warned how single irresponsible actions
could lead to the interruption of trade flows, ultimately
damaging the global economy. He quoted a Vietnamese
saying: “If trust is lost, all is lost.”

One year on, these words are particularly ironic in the
wake of the dramatic escalation between Vietnam and
China triggered by the arrival of a Chinese oil rig in the
disputed waters of the South China Sea.
A wave of lethal anti-Chinese sentiment has spread
through Vietnam. Prime Minister Dung is threatening to
take defensive measures, including legal action against
China. Miscalculation, it seems, remains a major danger for
big and small powers alike.
The 13th International Institute for Strategic Studies
Shangri-La Dialogue convenes in Singapore over this
weekend amid mounting uncertainty over the security of
the Asia-Pacific region and the ability of regional powers to
curb this downward spiral.
Tensions are running high on the Korean peninsula, where
North Korea is reportedly making preparations for a new
nuclear test. Friction between China and Japan in the East
China Sea spiked six months ago and now confrontation in the
South China Sea has once again returned to the headlines.
During preparatory discussions held in Singapore in
January, Minister for Defence Ng Eng Hen pointed out that
nationalist ambitions, progressive military modernisation
and dynamic changes in power relations form the backdrop to recent events in Asia.
Recent changes to Japan’s national security strategy, for
instance, are an acknowledgement that in recent years the
security environment around Japan has changed dramatically.
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s keynote address
tonight at the Shangri-La Dialogue will be studied by
leaders, policymakers and commentators seeking an
understanding of tectonic shifts in geopolitics and how the
security environment will be affected.
Mr Abe may seek to articulate his plans for a more
muscular defence policy, supported by new Japanese legislation enabling Japan to contribute more to international
security. Mr Abe may also elaborate on why he is pursuing
changes to Japan’s Constitution to allow “collective selfdefence” - essentially the right to use force in defence of an
ally (the United States) under attack.
Mr Abe’s national security overhaul has generated deep
suspicion in China, aggravated by having top leaders in
Japan continuing to visit the Yasukuni Shrine where some
of Japan’s most infamous war criminals are interred.
At the heart of the matter, however, are the enduring
Japan-US alliance, the military element of the US rebalancing policy to Asia, and China’s growing military clout.
Chinese President Xi Jinping, on the other hand, has
developed his own vision for the security of Asia, incorporated into the “China Dream”.
Earlier this month in Shanghai, at the Conference on
Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia,
Mr Xi scorned “Cold War thinking” and “zero-sum game”
mentality. Calling for a new regional security architecture,
Mr Xi stated that: “A military alliance which is targeted at a

Abe accused of using sea
tensions to beef up military
By Kristine Kwok
A senior Chinese official yesterday accused Japanese
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of exploiting the territorial
dispute in the East China Sea to amend the country’s security policy.
In an apparent attempt to pre-empt Abe’s own speech
at the Shangri-La Dialogue, former deputy foreign minister
Fu Ying told a special panel on the sidelines of the annual
forum in Singapore that Abe’s denial of Japan’s history
would intensify concerns at the direction in which he was
taking the country.
“My observation is that after he came to office he didn’t
show interest addressing the Diaoyu Islands dispute.
Instead he has made it into a bigger issue - that is, China as

Asian Defence Budget
Transparency
By Giri Rajendran
In his keynote address to the 13th Shangri-La Dialogue
yesterday, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe used the
opportunity to urge the region to become more transparent about its defence expenditure, as a first step to rein in
‘disproportionate’ spending on ‘military expansion.’ He
called for greater transparency in regional defence budgets
through disclosure under a revitalised East Asia Summit: ‘a
framework, under which we publicly disclose our military
budgets step by step that enables us to cross-check each

other, is a system that we should seek to establish as we
extend the scope of the East Asia Summit’.
While it is true that Asian states have rapidly increased
their defence outlays in recent years, there is little evidence
that these increments have been disproportionate. For example, although nominal Asian defence spending has risen
by more than one-fifth since 2010 – from $262bn in 2010 to
$322bn in 2013, overtaking NATO European defence outlays in the process – these increases have broadly matched
overall economic growth rates across the region over the
same period. As such, defence spending as a proportion
of regional GDP has stayed roughly constant since 2010, at
around 1.4% of Asian GDP. This is one of the lowest proportions of GDP allocated to defence of any region in the world
– only Latin America allocates appreciably less than this (as
a proportion of GDP) to its armed forces.
Mr Abe nevertheless highlighted a salient point: the
transparency of defence spending is where the worries lie.
Many states in Asia only release highly-aggregated, topline defence budget figures, which give little indication as
to the breakdown distribution of funding between the main
service arms (i.e. between land, naval and air forces, as well
as perhaps joint and strategic forces) or between different
functional aspects of defence spending (such as personnel,
operations & maintenance, research & development and
equipment procurement spending). In a 2011 Transparency
International study of defence budgeting transparency
worldwide, three Asian states were ranked in the lowest
possible category: Cambodia, China and Pakistan. They
were reported to provide little or no defence-related budget
information to the public, as well as having poor budget
oversight laws, undefined defence budgeting process and
significant off-budget military expenditure.
Of these states, China is clearly the most significant,
given that it has the largest defence budget in Asia – it
spends more on defence than Japan, South Korea and
Taiwan combined – and is the second largest defence
spender globally. Chinese defence spending opacity is
particularly illustrative when compared with the other
billion-people economic powerhouse of Asia, India, whose
annual defence budget release contains detailed spending
breakdowns categorised by service and function that run
into hundreds of lines. Many other states around the world
produce multi-year defence budget forecasts, and even if
these are adjusted over time, they provide a degree of stability and certainty over the state’s underlying priorities.
It is in this context that Prime Minister Abe’s remarks
are potentially significant. Others have called for increased
transparency in recent years, without success. Indeed, a
decreasing number of Asian states subscribe to existing
transparency measures, for instance through engagement
with the UN Register of Conventional Arms. If Mr Abe’s
call marks a renewed push to boost defence-budgeting
transparency across the region and to create a mechanism

for defining, evaluating and perhaps even monitoring
defence outlays, this would provide an important confidence-building measure that is likely to serve the region
well in the long run. The uneven levels of transparency in
Asia inevitably results in uncertainty and suspicion over
military intentions and aspirations. Defence-budget opacity is more likely than transparency to encourage planning
on the basis of worst-case scenarios.

IISS Voices
31 May 2014

Abe’s keynote - the
domestic context
By Jens Wardenaer
In his keynote speech at the Shangri-La Dialogue on Friday
evening, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe laid out his
vision for improved regional security.
Abe focused on the primacy of the rule of law (a phrase
he repeated often, in a not-so-subtle rebuke to China), and
a ‘proactive contribution to peace’, meaning an increased
role for Japan in regional peace and security issues.
Abe said Japan would offer its ‘utmost support’ for
ASEAN members’ efforts ‘to ensure the security of the sea
and skies’ through development assistance, capacity building and defence equipment and technology cooperation.
He also called for an enhanced role for the East Asia Forum,
beginning with a permanent committee consisting of permanent representatives to ASEAN.
But a key component of the proactive contribution to
peace — collective self-defence (CSD) — is controversial at
home as well as in China.
Currently, Abe’s main security policy goal is to have the
1947 constitution reinterpreted so as to allow the right to
collective self-defence. This right is currently prevented by
successive Japanese governments’ interpretations of CSD
as inadmissible under Article 9 of the constitution, which
renounces war as a sovereign right of the nation.
While a reinterpretation falls short of amending the constitution, which is advocated by Japanese hawks, it faces
considerable opposition in Japan, including in Abe’s own
ruling coalition.
In a reference to the Buddhist pacifist party New
Komeito (NKP), Abe said that he was consulting with coalition parties on the matter. NKP holds that constitutional
reinterpretation is not enough to allow CSD - though it
recognises that a separate change to the interpretation on
‘grey zone issues’ may be needed to allow the Self-Defense
Forces to act against foreign combatants disguised as
civilians who threaten Japanese interests. Currently, only
the police or coast guard are allowed to respond to such
a contingency. Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) sees

Selected press coverage

71

potential agreement on this issue as a step towards a coalition agreement on CSD.
Japanese delegates felt the speech would generally play
well in Japan, but pointed out that Abe’s occasional use of
language more common a few generations ago suggested a
certain nostalgia which may or may not resonate with the
public. This nostalgia was also present in Abe’s reference to
a type of ‘new Japanese’ - to be fostered by his ‘Abenomics’
set of economic policies - who are in fact little different from
their fathers and grandfathers, and who have ‘lost none of
the good qualities of the Japanese of days gone by’ in their
contributions and commitment to peace and prosperity in
Asia.
Pacifism indeed remains strong among the Japanese
public. A 26 May poll in the Nihon Keizai Shinbun saw 28%
agree and 51% disagree with reinterpreting the constitution
to enable collective self-defence, just two days after a close
encounter between Chinese and Japanese jets over the East
China Sea. This further highlights the challenge the Abe
administration faces in convincing its domestic audience,
in addition to sections of the international community.
Abe will have to spend much of the political capital
earned by the apparent success of Abenomics in order to
reform Japan’s security policy. He is likely to do so.

New York Times
31 May 2014

China Accuses U.S. and
Japan of Incitement
By Helene Cooper
SINGAPORE — China struck back harshly at the United
States and Japan on Saturday, as a senior Chinese military
official accused Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel and Prime
Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan of acting in concert to sow
controversy and division in the Asia-Pacific region.
Speaking to reporters at a conference here of senior
military officials from around the region, Lt. Gen. Wang
Guanzhong, the deputy chief of staff of the People’s
Liberation Army, characterized a speech on Saturday
morning by Mr. Hagel, which followed one by Mr. Abe
on Friday night, as “full of threats and intimidating language,” according to Chinese news media outlets.
General Wang seemed especially annoyed that Mr.
Hagel, who accused China of coercive tactics in its many
maritime disputes with its neighbors, had made his accusations at a conference about regional cooperation.
“Secretary Hagel, in this kind of public space with many
people, openly criticized China without reason,” General
Wang said. “Secretary Hagel’s speech is full of encouragement, incitement for the Asia region’s instability giving rise
to a disturbance.”

Asian, U.S. Military Chiefs
Raise Criticism of China
Hagel Accuses Beijing of
‘Destabilizing Unilateral Actions’
By Trefor Moss, Julian E. Barnes and Chun Han Wong
SINGAPORE—Military leaders from the U.S. and parts
of Asia escalated their criticism of China at a major international security summit Saturday, as regional opinion
appeared to coalesce against Beijing’s perceived role in
stoking tensions over disputed territories in the East and
South China Seas.
A major question hanging over the annual Shangri-La
Dialogue security conference, however, was whether such
criticism would influence Chinese behavior and help cool
regional tensions, or inflame them more.
Chinese officials were quick to challenge the chiding
from U.S. and other Asia-Pacific countries, while some
security experts at the conference doubted the rising chorus
of complaints would be sufficient to alter China’s course.
U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel led off the barrage
with a speech that accused China of undertaking “destabilizing, unilateral actions” in the South China Sea and
undermining the rule of law after it deployed a deep-sea
oil-drilling platform in waters claimed by Hanoi.

China has defended the move, along with other contested actions in the East and South China Seas, as normal
activities in areas it considers its own territory.
Admiral Samuel J. Locklear III, the commander of
the U.S. Pacific Command, told The Wall Street Journal
after Mr. Hagel’s remarks that China needs to change its
approach to dealing with regional disputes, especially as
territorial confrontations are likely to become more frequent in the hotly contested Asia-Pacific.
Chinese leaders “will have to make a decision on how
they will help the region, and help lead the region through
these issues,” rather than posing challenges to regional
stability, he said. “The path they’re on, dealing with [territorial disputes] now, is not productive for the region.”
Other defense chiefs piled on, a day after Japanese
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe used a speech at the Dialogue to
denounce what he called unilateral efforts to alter the strategic status quo in Asia, in remarks clearly aimed at China.
Australian Defense Minister David Johnston told delegates Saturday that his country shares “serious concerns”
over recent developments in the South China Sea “which
have served to raise tensions and temperature in that region,”
though he didn’t explicitly target Beijing in his speech.
Vietnamese Defense Minister Gen. Phung Quang Thanh
meanwhile rapped China for allegedly acting outside of
international law by placing its oil-drilling platform in
waters that Hanoi claims.
“Vietnam has exercised utmost restraint,” and is
seeking “high-level” talks with Beijing to resolve their differences, said Gen. Thanh, adding that Hanoi could seek
international legal recourse against China should peaceful
dialogue fail to produce results.
China didn’t send top-level defense officials to the
Shangri-La gathering. But the ones who did attend, including English-speaking academics and People’s Liberation
Army officers, returned the criticism in kind.
Major General Zhu Chenghu told The Wall Street Journal
that the charges of destabilizing actions by China were
“groundless” and that “the Americans are making very, very
important strategic mistakes right now” in their approach to
dealing with China. Gen. Zhu, who is a professor at China’s
National Defense University, accused Mr. Hagel of hypocrisy in his assessment of the region’s security landscape,
suggesting that in his view “whatever the Chinese do is illegal, and whatever the Americans do is right.”
The “Chinese are not so stupid” as to believe that
Washington wants to work with China, or that the U.S.
government is truly neutral when it comes to territorial
disputes between China and American allies, he said.
“If you take China as an enemy, China will absolutely
become the enemy of the U.S.,” he warned.
Gen. Zhu’s comments were echoed during a spirited question and answer session following Mr. Hagel’s
speech. Major General Yao Yunzhu of the Chinese People’s

Liberation Army questioned America’s repeated claim that
it doesn’t take sides in territorial disputes, asking how that
can be true when the U.S. also claims that disputed islands
in the East China Sea are covered by a U.S. treaty with Japan.
She said the fact that the U.S. claims its defense treaties
cover disputed matters amounts to a “threat of force, coercion or intimidation.” Mr. Hagel rejected her contention
that the U.S. was taking sides and said China was trying to
resolve disputes in the wrong way, through force.
China’s forceful rebuttal was a sign to some experts that
it has no intention of backing down from its claims in the
region, even as criticism of its actions widens. It has shown
no indication it intends to remove its disputed oil rig until
it completes drilling in the area.
The criticism “doesn’t deter China at all,” said Ian Storey,
a senior fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in
Singapore. “China seems more willing to absorb the reputational costs” as it becomes more powerful, he said.
Another analyst, who asked not to be named for fear
of offending China, said that the Chinese delegates’
expressions of anger at Mr. Hagel’s remarks should not
necessarily be taken at face value. “It’s hard to tell what is
real and what is theater,” he suggested.
Nevertheless, he said it was remarkable how much
other countries’ impressions of China had shifted in the
space of just a few years. “You could say now that they’re
behaving more like a great power—they’re behaving with
a sense of entitlement, a sense of exceptionalism—the way
the Americans have done, and the British before them—as
if the rules don’t apply to them.”
In advance of the Dialogue, U.S. officials say they heard
from a variety of allies in the region that were hoping to
hear strong American statements about China’s actions.
The statements Saturday by U.S. officials were considered
to be markedly stronger than even a few weeks ago, when
Gen. Fang Fenghui, chief of the general staff of the People’s
Liberation Army, visited the Pentagon.
U.S. statements from Mr. Hagel, Adm. Locklear and
others appear to have been more sharply-worded than
Beijing anticipated. At a meeting with Mr. Hagel Saturday,
Lt. Gen Wang Guanzhong, Beijing’s highest-ranking official at the Singapore event, said the comments were “more
candid than our expectations,” according to an official in
attendance.
Bonnie Glaser, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic
and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank,
said it would be wrong to conclude that U.S.-China relations were heading for a crisis simply because of some
sniping at this year’s Shangri-La Dialogue.
“There is an understanding between the U.S. and China
that doesn’t seem to be appreciated by many of the countries here, that where we have differences we do not allow
them to spill over into other issues. Our leaders recognize
what’s at stake,” she said.

Hagel: China territorial
claims destabilize region
By Lolita C. Baldor
SINGAPORE (AP) — Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel
warned an international security conference Saturday that
the U.S. “will not look the other way” when nations such
as China try to restrict navigation or ignore international
rules and standards.
China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea are
destabilizing the region, and its failure to resolve disputes
with other nations threatens East Asia’s long-term progress, Hagel said.
For the second year in a row, Hagel used the podium at
the Shangri-La conference to call out China for cyberspying
against the U.S. While this has been a persistent complaint
by the U.S., his remark came less than two weeks after the

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The Shangri-La Dialogue

U.S. charged five Chinese military officers with hacking
into American companies to steal trade secrets.
The Chinese, in response, suspended participation in a
U.S.-China Cyber Working Group, and released a report
that said the U.S. is conducting unscrupulous cyber espionage and that China is a major target.
Noting the suspension, Hagel in his speech said the
U.S. will continue to raise cyber issues with the Chinese,
“because dialogue is essential for reducing the risk of miscalculation and escalation in cyberspace.”
In a string of remarks aimed directly at China, Hagel
said the U.S. opposes any nation’s use of intimidation or
threat of force to assert territorial claims.
“All nations of the region, including China, have a
choice: to unite, and recommit to a stable regional order, or,
to walk away from that commitment and risk the peace and
security that has benefited millions of people throughout
the Asia-Pacific, and billions around the world,” he said.
China and Japan have been at odds over uninhabited
islands in the East China Sea that are controlled by Japan
but claimed by both.
The U.S. has declined to take sides on the sovereignty
issue but has made clear it has a treaty obligation to support
Japan. And the U.S. has also refused to recognize China’s
declaration of an air defense zone over a large swath of the
East China Sea, including the disputed islands.
U.S. officials have raised concerns about Beijing’s decision to plant an oil rig in part of the South China Sea also
claimed by Vietnam. The move has led to a series of clashes
between the two nations in the waters around the rig,
including the recent sinking of a Vietnamese fishing boat.
Chinese leaders, however, has been equally strong
in defending their actions, and have blamed the Obama
administration’s new focus on Asia for emboldening some
of the territorial disputes.
But some Asian leaders have expressed worries that the
U.S. is doing little more than paying lip service to the complaints, fueling doubts about America’s commitment to the
region.
In an effort to tamp down those concerns, Hagel also
used his speech to reassure Asia-Pacific nations that despite
persistent budget woes and increasing demands for military aid across Africa and Europe, the U.S. remains strongly
committed to Asia.
Allies in the Asia Pacific have questioned how serious
the U.S. is about its so-called pivot to Asia, particularly
as the recent unrest in Ukraine and terror threats in north
Africa have garnered more attention. And President Barack
Obama’s national security speech earlier this week made
no mention of the Asia Pacific.
“The rebalance is not a goal, promise or a vision – it is
a reality,” Hagel said, laying out a long list of moves the
U.S. has made to increase troops, ships and military assets
in the region, provide missile defense systems to Japan, sell

U.S. and China square off
at Asia security forum
By David Brunnstrom and Lee Chyen Yee
The United States and China squared off at an Asian
security forum on Saturday, with the U.S. defense secretary accusing Beijing of destabilizing the region and a top
Chinese general retorting that his comments were “threat
and intimidation”.
Using unusually strong language, U.S. Defense
Secretary Chuck Hagel took aim at Beijing’s handling of
territorial disputes with its Asian neighbors.
“In recent months, China has undertaken destabilizing,
unilateral actions asserting its claims in the South China
Sea,” Hagel said.
He warned Beijing that the United States was committed
to its geopolitical rebalance to the Asia-Pacific region and
“will not look the other way when fundamental principles
of the international order are being challenged”.
Hagel said the United States took no position on the
merits of rival territorial claims in the region, but added:
“We firmly oppose any nation’s use of intimidation, coercion, or the threat of force to assert these claims.”
His speech at Singapore’s Shangri-La Dialogue, Asia
biggest security forum, provoked an angry reaction from
the deputy chief of staff of the Chinese Army, LieutenantGeneral Wang Guanzhong.
“I felt that Secretary Hagel’s speech is full of hegemonism, threat and intimidation,” he told reporters just after
the speech.

Wang said the speech was aimed at causing trouble in
the Asia-Pacific.
Hagel’s comments followed the keynote address by
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe at the same forum
on Friday evening, who pledged “utmost support” to
Southeast Asian countries, several of which are locked in
maritime disputes with China.
“I felt that they were just trying to echo each other,”
Wang said.
Hagel later held a bilateral meeting with Wang, where
the Chinese military leader expressed his surprise at the
U.S. defense secretary’s speech.
“You were very candid this morning, and to be frank,
more than our expectations,” he said. “Although I do think
those criticisms are groundless, I do appreciate your candor
… likewise we will also share our candor.”
A senior U.S. defense official said that, despite Wang’s
opening remarks, the tone of the meeting had been “businesslike and fairly amicable”.
While Hagel went over ground he covered in his speech,
Wang spent most of the meeting talking about U.S.-China
military-to-military contacts, including Chinese participation in forthcoming military exercises, the official said.
The U.S. official said Hagel’s speech had been well received
by other Asian delegations with the exception of China.
Only if provoked
In Beijing, President Xi Jinping said China would not initiate aggressive action in the South China Sea but would
respond if others did, the official Xinhua news agency
reported.
“We will never stir up trouble, but will react in the necessary way to the provocations of countries involved,”
Xinhua quoted Xi as saying in a meeting on Friday with
Prime Minister Najib Razak of Malaysia.
China claims almost the entire oil- and gas-rich South
China Seas, and dismisses competing claims from Taiwan,
Brunei, Vietnam, the Philippines and Malaysia. Japan also
has a territorial row with China over islands in the East
China Sea. Tensions have surged in recent weeks after
China placed an oil rig in waters claimed by Vietnam, and
the Philippines said Beijing could be building an airstrip
on a disputed island. Japan’s defense ministry said Chinese
SU-27 fighters came as close as 50 meters (170 ft) to a
Japanese OP-3C surveillance plane near disputed islets last
week and within 30 metres of a YS-11EB electronic intelligence aircraft. Japanese Defence Minister Itsunori Onodera
said Tokyo perceived an “increasingly severe regional
security environment”.
“It is unfortunate that there are security concerns in the
East and South China Seas,” he said. “Japan as well as all
concerned parties must uphold the rule of law and never
attempt to unilaterally change the status quo by force.”
On Friday, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe pitched his plan
for Japan to take on a bigger international security role

Hagel Says China’s Actions in
South China Sea Destabilizing
By Gopal Ratnam, Sharon Chen and Isabel Reynolds
U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel today spelled out
a series of Chinese actions in parts of the disputed South
China Sea and said they were destabilizing the region,
drawing a rebuke from a Chinese General.
While China has said it wants a “sea of peace, friendship and cooperation,” in recent months it “has undertaken
destabilizing, unilateral actions asserting its claims in the
South China Sea,” Hagel said in prepared remarks at the
annual Shangri-La security conference in Singapore.
“It has restricted access to the Scarborough Reef; put
pressure on the long-standing Philippine presence at the
Second Thomas Shoal; begun land reclamation activities
at multiple locations; and moved an oil rig into disputed

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The Shangri-La Dialogue

waters near the Paracel Islands” off the coast of Vietnam,
Hagel said, listing for the first time Chinese infractions in
the region that are alarming Southeast Asian nations.
The stepped-up U.S. comments follow Vietnamese
Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung’s appeal for a “stronger
voice” from the U.S. against China after clashes between
coast guard vessels near the rig placed in contested waters.
The Philippines, dwarfed militarily by China, has sought
support from the U.S. and the United Nations to counter
China’s encroachment into shoals off its coast.
Under President Xi Jinping, China has taken a more
assertive approach to its territorial claims. During a visit to
Beijing in April, Hagel was told by his counterpart, General
Chang Wanquan, that China would make “no compromise,
no concessions” in disputes with Japan and the Philippines.
International Order
In Singapore today, Hagel said the U.S. “will not look the
other way when fundamental principles of international
order are being challenged” including moves by China to
restrict overflight or freedom of navigation.
U.S.-China military ties have been tested after the U.S.
Justice Department indicted five Chinese military officials
on charges of economic espionage linked to computer hacking of U.S. nuclear power, metals and solar companies.
China has suspended the U.S.-China Cyber Working Group.
Even so, “we will continue to raise cyber issues with
our Chinese counterparts, because dialogue is essential for
reducing the risk of miscalculation and escalation in cyberspace,” Hagel said.
Taking questions after his speech, Hagel was quizzed
by Major-General Yao Yunzhu, director of the Center
for China-America Defense Relations at the Academy of
Military Science within the People’s Liberation Army,
about the U.S. stance over East China Sea islands claimed
by both China and Japan. Yao asked if recent U.S. statements about the islands being covered by its defense treaty
with Japan were a threat of coercion or intimidation.
‘Position Clear’
“I thought I made America’s position clear in my remarks
about the position we take on disputed territories,” Hagel
replied. “In fact, I think I repeated our position a number
of times.”
Hagel later met Lieutenant General Wang Guanzhong,
the deputy chief of general staff of the PLA, who told Hagel
his criticism was “groundless” and said the U.S. defense
secretary had been “very candid” in his speech.
Speaking separately on China Central Television, Wang
said Hagel had “openly pointed” his finger at China in a
public setting, according to a summary posted on CCTV’s
website. “Secretary Hagel’s speech is full of American
hegemony; secondly, it’s full of threats and intimidation;
thirdly, it’s full of instigation and incitement, aimed at provoking restless elements in the Asian-Pacific region to stir
up trouble.”

Hagel-Abe ‘Duet’
Wang also criticized Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.
Abe has accused China of trying to change the status quo
by force, and in a speech at the forum yesterday set out his
policy to broaden the role of Japan’s defense force to be
able to come to the aid of allies.
“I feel they’re echoing each other and sang a duet,”
Wang said of Hagel and Abe, according to CCTV. “We can
see from the Shangri-La Dialogue this year, it’s Japan and
the U.S. who stirred up conflict.”
Singapore defense minister Ng Eng Hen told reporters
he would rather have sessions at the forum that dealt with
the issues “than have token sessions where it’s just motherhood statements and there isn’t direct identification of
issues and then we assume that we have had a conference.”
Alongside its dispute with Japan in the East China Sea,
China claims much of the South China Sea under its “ninedash line” map, first published in 1947. The map extends
hundreds of miles south from China’s Hainan Island to
equatorial waters off the coast of Borneo, taking in some
of the world’s busiest shipping lanes. Brunei, Malaysia and
the Philippines also claim parts of the sea.
Vietnam Options
“Japan will offer its utmost support for the efforts of the
countries of Asean as they work to ensure the security of
the seas and the skies,” Abe said in his speech yesterday
at the forum, referring to the 10-member Association of
Southeast Asian Nations.
Vietnam has prepared evidence for a lawsuit challenging China’s claim and is considering the best time to file it,
Dung said yesterday in an interview.
If open conflict were to erupt in the South China Sea,
“there will be no victor,” Dung warned. “Everyone will
lose,” he said. “The whole world economy will be hurt and
damaged immeasurably.”
Vietnamese Defense Minister Phung Quang Thanh said
today he has contacted the deputy chair of the military
commission of China as Vietnam seeks to communicate
with China over the oil rig dispute.
“I hope that in the coming days leaders of the two countries can meet and discuss these disputes,” Thanh said at
the Singapore forum. “We still have room for peaceful dialogue.” The legal avenue, he said, would be a “last resort.”
Malaysia Worries
Malaysia Defense Minister Hishammuddin Hussein said
he is increasingly concerned about tensions in the waters.
“Inflamed rhetoric and mutual recrimination will not
do any country any good,” he told the forum in Singapore.
World War 1, he said, “was started by sheer accident. That we
must avoid for our region as the world focuses in this area.”
Vietnam said China rammed one of its fishing boats on
May 26 near the oil rig. The sinking happened two days
after Chinese fighter jets flew within tens of meters of
Japanese surveillance planes in the East China Sea.

Japan plans more proactive
role in Asian security
SINGAPORE: Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe vowed
on Friday that his country would play a larger role in promoting peace in Asia, and called for the rule of law to be
upheld in the region.
Laying out a vision of Tokyo as a counterweight to
the growing might of China, Abe offered Japan’s help to
regional partners “to ensure security of the seas and skies”.
He said Japan and the United States stood ready to bolster security cooperation with Australia and the Association
of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).
“Japan intends to play an even greater and more proactive role than it has until now in making peace in Asia and
the world something more certain,” he said in a keynote
speech at an annual Asia security forum in Singapore.
Abe said Japan will provide 10 new coast guard patrol
ships to Philippines, which has one of Asia’s most poorly
equipped security forces.
He said three such vessels have already been provided
to Indonesia and Vietnam may receive similar assistance.

Selected press coverage

77

Abe delivered his speech as tensions simmer over territorial disputes, involving China and some Southeast Asian
states in the South China Sea as well as between Tokyo and
Beijing in the East China Sea.
Beijing claims almost all of the South China Sea, even
waters approaching the shores of neighbouring countries,
and has become more aggressive in enforcing what it says
are its historical rights.
In the latest tensions, Vietnam on Thursday accused
Chinese war ships of pointing their weapons at Vietnamese
vessels during an escalating standoff near an oil rig in contested waters in the South China Sea.
The Philippines has also faced increasingly tense disputes with China for control of islets and reefs in the sea.
In one high-profile incident in 2012, the Philippines lost
control of a rich fishing ground 220 kilometres (135 miles)
off its main island to China after a standoff.
China is also in dispute with Japan over islands in the
East Sea, which Tokyo calls Senkaku and Beijing refers to
as Diaoyu. Tokyo has control over the outcrops.
On May 25, Japan accused China of “dangerous”
manoeuvres in the area after a Chinese fighter flew within
roughly 30 metres (100 feet) of a Japanese military aircraft.
“We do not welcome dangerous encounters by fighter
aircraft and vessels at sea,” Abe said, reiterating a call for
both countries to establish a maritime and air communication mechanism in order to prevent unexpected situations.
Abe repeatedly used the phrase “rule of law” during
his speech, urging nations to respect international norms in
dealing with territorial rows, avoiding coercion in enforcing claims and settling disputes by peaceful means.
“I urge all of us who live in Asia and the Pacific to each
individually uphold these three principles exhaustively,”
he said at the Shangri-La Dialogue, a security forum involving defence chiefs, military officials and security experts.
“Movement to consolidate changes to the status quo
by aggregating one fait accompli after another can only
be strongly condemned as something that contravenes the
spirit of these three principles,” he said, without mentioning any country.
Abe told the forum that talks were under way in his
country about Japan’s pacifist armed forces taking on a
more pro-active role in security.
US defence secretary Chuck Hagel told Abe during bilateral talks on the sidelines in Singapore that he welcomed
the initiative, Japan’s Jiji Press news agency reported.
Japan’s Self Defence Forces have not fired a shot in battle
since a battered and broken country surrendered in 1945,
accepting a US-led occupation that would last until 1952.
Its once-huge armed forces were emasculated, stripped
by the foreign-imposed constitution of the right to wage
war and restricted to a defensive role.
Speaking ahead of Abe on the sidelines of the Singapore
meeting, Fu Ying, the head of the foreign affairs committee of

News Analysis: Asian security
calls for mindset change
SINGAPORE - Some of the nations need to change their
mindset on national and regional security in Asia, based on
the approach revealed by the speeches of national leaders
and defense chiefs at the ongoing Shangri-La Dialogue.
Finger pointing at China is no longer surprising at the
regional security forum. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo
Abe made a speech full of innuendoes that attempt to put
cosmetic make-ups on his dream of reviving the militarist
glory of Japan in the past.
The United States Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel spoke
on “the contribution of the United States to regional stability” on Saturday. He openly blamed China for what he called
unilateral actions, despite that China has said that it has had
to respond to provocations from some of the countries.
The United States has in the past called for efforts to “
safeguard freedom of navigation and respect for international law. “ But behind the rhetoric is a unilateral approach
that is in line with the United States security philosophy.
The philosophy is evident in Asia where the United
States has been trying to practice its approach of ensuring
the safety of its allies by maintaining its military dominance. It even adopted the strategy of stoking fires to do
this, with the influence felt and visibly seen behind the tensions on the South China Sea.
“The United States strategy is to create trouble for you
in your neighborhood,” said Huang Jing, director of the
Institute on Asia and Globolization, National University of
Singapore.
However, he said that China should not allow itself to
be swayed in its pursuit of peaceful development.
The freedom of navigation has never been a problem
and China has all the due respect for international law and
the spirit of cooperative management inherent in the body
of international laws.
In particular, China has ratified the United Nations
Convention on the Law of the Seas, whereas the United
States has not. Its advocacy of managing the disputes in
accordance with international codes and resolving the
disputes through bilateral diplomacy and dialogue is also
consistent with the spirit of international law.

After Beijing, Tokyo calling:
Welcome Modi, seal deal
By Pranab Dhal Samanta
A day after Chinese Premier Le Keqiang called up Prime
Minister Narendra Modi to set the ball rolling on a new
roadmap for bilateral engagement, Japanese Prime Minister
Shinzo Abe exuded confidence that both sides will be able
to confirm trilateral cooperation with the United States
whenever Modi visits Japan.
Indicating that a Modi visit to Japan was on the cards,
Abe said: “In India, Mr Narendra Modi has become Prime

Dust-up at the Shangri-La
TEMPERS frayed rather alarmingly at this year’s Shangri-La
Dialogue, an annual forum for Asia’s defence establishments, held in one of the eponymous hotels, in Singapore.
First Japan and then America criticised China. Then China
reciprocated in furious terms.
The 13th dialogue, from May 30th to June 1st, could
hardly have been better timed to deal with the region’s
security anxieties. Over the past six months the level of
concern about China’s aggressive pursuit of disputed territorial claims has been increasing steadily, at least outside
China.
In November 2013 China unilaterally declared an AirDefence Identification Zone (ADIZ) in the East China Sea,
which covered the Senkaku or Diaoyu islands, which are
administered by Japan. Then in May, in rapid succession,
China moved a massive oil-rig to drill in waters in the
South China Sea seen by Vietnam as part of its Exclusive
Economic Zone; started construction work at a shoal in the
South China Sea claimed by the Philippines; and then, the
Japanese complain, flew fighter jets dangerously close to
surveillance planes Japan had near the Senkakus.
China probably feared the worst when it learned that
this year the speech at the dialogue’s opening dinner would
be delivered Japan’s prime minister, Shinzo Abe (pictured).
It tends to shun him as a troublemaker intent on reviving
Japan’s militarist past.
Perhaps for that reason, the Chinese delegation was not
headed by the defence minister. Instead China sent some of
the top brass from the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), and
Fu Ying, a senior diplomat now attached to China’s parliament, the National People’s Congress.
They were all duly incensed by Mr Abe’s speech. It was
indeed a (largely implicit) onslaught against China and its
recent behaviour. In response, Mr Abe promised, there will
be an enhanced role for Japanese security in the region.
He offered to provide patrol boats to the Philippines and
Vietnam.
Then the next morning, Chuck Hagel, America’s secretary of defence, used his speech to accuse China of
“destabilising, unilateral actions” to assert its claims in the
South China Sea. He also endorsed Mr Abe’s speech and
stressed the importance of America’s strategic “pivot” or
“rebalance” towards Asia.
Part of Mr Hagel’s intention may have been to counter
the disappointment felt among some of America’s Asian
allies about an important foreign-policy speech that Barack
Obama had made three days earlier. Mr Obama had made
no reference to the rebalance, and mentioned China only
in passing. In suggesting that terrorism remained the big-

Beijing hits out at US
and Japan alliance
By Demetri Sevastopulo
A top Chinese general has lashed out at the US and Japan,
accusing the two countries of teaming up against China
and making “provocative” comments amid escalating
Asian maritime tensions.
Speaking at a defence forum in Singapore on Sunday,
Wang Guanzhong, deputy chief of the Chinese general
staff, lambasted the US and Japanese defence ministers for
telling Asian counterparts that China was using intimidation to assert its territorial claims.
US defence secretary Chuck Hagel said on Saturday that
the US would “not look the other way when fundamental
principles of the international order are being challenged”.
He added that China was undermining​ its claims that the
South China Sea was a “sea of peace, friendship and cooperation” by using coercive tactics.
The spat came as US President Barack Obama prepared
for a trip to Europe where he will attend a G7 meeting and
second world war D-day commemorations. Republican
senator and presidential candidate hopeful Ted Cruz
on Sunday attacked Mr Obama’s foreign policy, saying:
“Every region of the world has gotten worse; America has
weakened, our enemies have been strengthened.”
In the face of mounting efforts by the US and Japan to
shore up new security relationships in Asia, Gen Wang said
China opposed both the practice of building military alliances
and “attempts by any country to dominate regional affairs”.
Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe said on Friday that
Japan would give more support to southeast Asian nations
facing Chinese pressure.
Gen Wang said: “The speeches by Mr Abe and Mr Hagel
gave me the impression that they co-ordinated with each
other, they supported each other, they encouraged each
other and they took the advantage of speaking first . . . and
staged provocative actions and challenges against China.”
The Shangri-La Dialogue forum has become one of the
key defence events in Asia, particularly as China becomes
more willing to voice its views. Gen Wang said he had not
intended to deliver a critical speech, but felt compelled to
respond to Mr Hagel whose speech was “full of hegemony”.
This year’s event became more heated because of the
escalating disputes in the South China Sea and East China
Sea. China is embroiled in maritime disputes around the
region, including with Manila and Tokyo.
Scores of Chinese and Vietnamese ships are also
involved in a stand-off near the disputed Paracel Islands
after China started drilling for oil there in early May.

Discord in Shangri-La
China’s attempt at Asian
dominance meets resistance
The Shangri-La Dialogue held annually in Singapore has
become Asia’s premier forum for sniping about regional
security, and the snark gets most of the headlines. But this
weekend included more substance. Prime Minister Shinzo
Abe pledged Japan would play an “even greater and more
proactive role” with stronger defense ties to Southeast
Asia, including an offer of coastal patrol boats. And U.S.
Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel gave a more complete
military accounting of the American “pivot” to Asia than
we’ve previously heard.
The justification for both agendas was clear: Beijing has
destabilized the region with its attempts to use military
coercion to change the status quo in the East and South
China seas. That didn’t go down well with Chinese officials. Lt. Gen. Wang Guanzhong called the two speeches
“simply unimaginable” and a “provocative action against
China.”

China hits back at US, Japan
for ‘provocative’ remarks
Singapore (AFP) - China denounced Japanese Prime
Minister Shinzo Abe and US Defense Secretary Chuck
Hagel on Sunday for “provocative” remarks accusing
Beijing of destabilising actions in contested Asian waters.
Lieutenant General Wang Guanzhong, deputy chief
of the general staff of the People’s Liberation Army, told
an Asian security forum in Singapore that strong comments made by Abe and Hagel at the conference were
“unacceptable”.
Abe had opened the Shangri-La Dialogue on Friday
by urging countries to respect the rule of law -- an apparent reference to what rivals consider aggressive Chinese
behaviour over disputed areas in the South China Sea and
East China Sea.
Hagel on Saturday warned China against “destabilising actions” in the South China Sea and listed a number of
alleged infractions, including against the Philippines and
Vietnam, the two most vocal critics of Beijing’s claims.
“The Chinese delegation... have this feeling that the
speeches of Mr Abe and Mr Hagel are a provocative action
against China,” Wang, dressed in full military uniform,
said in an address to the forum.
Abe had left Saturday and Hagel departed early Sunday
before Wang spoke.
The Pentagon said Hagel and Wang held a brief meeting Saturday in which they “exchanged views about issues
important to both the US and China, as well as to the
region”.
About midway into his prepared speech in which he
said China “will never seek hegemony and foreign expansion”, Wang diverted from the script.
He accused Abe and Hagel of “coordinating” with each
other to attack China.
“This is simply unimaginable,” said Wang, the highest
ranking military official in the Chinese delegation, adding
that the US and Japanese speeches were “unacceptable and
not in the spirit of this Shangri-La Dialogue”.
“The speeches made by Mr Abe and Mr Hagel gave me
the impression that they coordinated with each other, they
supported each other, they encouraged each other and they
took the advantage of speaking first... and staged provocative actions and challenges against China,” he said.
‘Destabilising actions’
Hagel issued a blunt message to Beijing on Saturday,
saying “China has undertaken destabilising, unilateral
actions asserting its claims in the South China Sea.”
He accused China of restricting the Philippines’ access
to Scarborough Shoal, putting pressure on Manila’s long-

China denounces ‘provocative’
US and Japan comments
over territory disputes
By Sonia Elks
China has hit back at Japan and the US for “provocative”
remarks after Beijing was told to end “destabilising” actions
over disputed waters and islands amid growing tensions
on the Pacific Rim.
Lieutenant-General Wang Guanzhong, deputy chief of
the general staff of the People’s Liberation Army, threw
away a prepared speech at an Asian security forum in

SINGAPORE -- The idea of “proactive peace” Japanese
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe preaches should be a cause for
concern because its essence is not peace but “proactiveness,” says a senior Chinese diplomat.
The so-called “proactive” approach is aimed at changing the path of peaceful development set for Japan after
World War II, Fu Ying, a former vice foreign minister, said
here on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue, a regional
security forum.
Japan’s moves in recent years are worrying because
the country inflicted tremendous harm on its neighbors in
modern history, and it has not truly come to terms with its
past, the soft-spoken diplomat noted.
Even worse, the current leaders of Japan have been
trying their best to deny and beautify Japan’s history of
invasion, added Fu, who now chairs the Foreign Affairs
Committee of the National People’s Congress (NPC).
In his keynote speech at the Shangri-La Dialogue on
Friday, Abe used various innuendoes to paint China as a
threat. He also called on his compatriots to revise Japan’s
pacifist constitution, saying the Self-Defense Forces should
play a larger role in regional security.
“He has been trying to lift the lid on Japan’s right of
collective self-defense, and he is drumming up a campaign
for Japan to be more proactively involved in international
security affairs. Given all that, we cannot help questioning
the motive, aim and consequence of his moves,” Fu said.
She expressed concern that Japanese leaders, with various pretexts, may lead Japan on “a wrong path as their
predecessors in modern history did.”
“Our world is increasingly globalized and the countries
are increasingly interdependent. What we need is peace
and stability, and development and steady improvement
of people’s living standards,” she said.
“We are opposed to raising voices on differences and
disputes or creating confrontation. ... We must stay vigilant and not let what happened tragically in history repeat
itself,” added the diplomatic veteran.
Cooperative security
Fu said that she came to the three-day Shangri-La Dialogue,
which opened Friday, to listen to other countries’ views on
security issues while trying to explain China’s policies and
stances.
“Asia is a region of growth and vitality. It has had peace
and stability after the Cold War. At the same time, however,
it is also a region of diversity with multiple interwoven

challenges. To maintain peace and stability and sustain our
cooperation and growth momentum, we have to keep our
channels of communication open, and keep on efforts to
build confidence and reduce distrust,” she said.
Fu said countries in the region should further push
forward their economic integration in order to achieve
common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable
security, the goal of a security approach put forward by
Chinese President Xi Jinping at a recent security summit
in Shanghai.
“We should pursue sustainable security through the
pursuit of sustainable development,” she said.
She also said that in the 21st century, the goal must be
common security that takes account of the interests and
concerns of all countries.
“It must be inclusive. We cannot limit our pursuit to the
security interests of a small number of nations or the absolute security of the members of an alliance,” Fu said. “We
should increase our constructive interaction among major
countries and discard the Cold War mind-set.”
She urged countries in the region to stick to the path
of multilateralism and build an inclusive regional security
cooperation framework.
It is good for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations
(ASEAN) to be at the center of regional cooperation and
for all the countries to work together “in the ASEAN way,”
which works by building on consensus while properly handling differences and disputes, she added.
Reducing space for China to be misread
Fu, who answered questions and explained China’s policies at the Shangri-La Dialogue, said China does need to
think about how it can better communicate with the rest of
the world so that people could understand China’s ideas
and thoughts better and know them more timely.
“One of the most frequently asked questions at the
Shangri-La Dialogue is: ‘China is so powerful, so what
changes will it bring to this region and the world?’
Obviously China is now seen as a major power in the
world,” she said.
She added that she expects people from other countries
to be following the latest developments related to China
more closely and with more critical eyes.
“Misunderstanding and misreading can often make it
hard to see the truth, especially when others do not have
enough knowledge about China and when there still exists
the Cold War mind-set,” she said.
Responding to a question on maritime disputes in
South and East China Seas, Fu said China has always been
opposed to unilateral changes to the status quo or provocations in these areas, adding that its policy has always been
the peaceful solution of the disputes through consultation
and negotiations between the countries involved.
However, she said, China has faced unilateral provocations by certain countries in recent years, with some not

Shangri-la Dialogue no paradise
as China and US trade barbs
By Peter Ford
SINGAPORE — When the great and the good in the world
of Asian strategy get together once a year here to talk about
what’s new in their field, it is not often that sparks fly.
But there were some fireworks at the Shangri-la
Dialogue on Sunday when the deputy chief of the Chinese
Army, Gen. Wang Guanzhong, let loose with some barbed
attacks on the United States and its principal ally in Asia,
Japan.
Since the conference began on Friday evening, speaker
after speaker had criticized China, in more or less veiled
fashion, for the aggressive way Beijing is pushing its territorial claims in the East and South China seas.
Wang clearly felt aggrieved; people were ganging up on
his government and it was time to hit back.
He accused Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and US
Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel of “provocative actions
and challenges against China” in their earlier speeches and
described Mr. Hagel’s speech as “full of hegemony, full of
words of threat and intimidation…to create troubles and
make provocations.”
What had they done to deserve such opprobrium?
Mr. Abe had complained about the way China has
crowded the seas and skies around the disputed Diaoyu
islands (which he calls the Senkaku) with naval vessels and
fighter jets.
Hagel had accused Beijing of “destabilizing, unilateral actions asserting its claims in the South China Sea,”
for example by moving an oil drilling rig last month into
waters that Vietnam also claims.
That has led to clashes between Vietnamese and Chinese
vessels in which one Vietnamese fishing boat sank last
week, and to anti-Chinese riots in Vietnam in which four
people died.
The United States “firmly opposes any nation’s use of
intimidation, coercion, or the threat of force” to assert its
claims, Hagel said bluntly.
Real risks
These were strong words. But tensions in the South China
Sea and around the Diaoyu/Senkaku islands are getting
dangerously high, and with opposing ships and combat
aircraft in close proximity there is a constant risk that a
miscalculation might unleash a serious conflict.
Events such as the annual Shangri-la Dialogue are meant
to help avert such disasters by encouraging discussion and
greater mutual understanding. But Wang’s outburst illustrates a fly in the ointment.

Snubs, harsh words at Asia security
meet as U.S. and Japan rile China
By Rachel Armstrong and Raju Gopalakrishnan
SINGAPORE (Reuters) - When Japan’s defense minister greeted the deputy chief of staff of China’s army at a
regional security forum this weekend, he was undiplomatically snubbed.
Lieutenant General Wang Guanzhong said he was
incensed by comments from Japanese Prime Minister
Shinzo Abe implicitly holding China responsible for territorial disputes in the East and South China Seas and later
by U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel’s accusations that
Beijing was destabilizing the region.
“When Mr Abe spoke just now, there was veiled criticism targeted at China,” Wang told Japanese Defence
Minister Itsunori Onodera, according to the semi-official
China News Service. “These accusations are wrong and go
against the standards of international relations.”
The exchange between the world’s three biggest economies at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, a security
forum for government officials, military officers and
defense experts, were among the most caustic in years at
diplomatic gatherings, and could be a setback to efforts to
bring ties back on track.
It was the first such major conference since tensions
have surged in the South China Sea, one of Asia’s most
intractable disputes and a possible flashpoint for conflict.
Tellingly, despite around 100 bilateral and trilateral
meetings taking place over the week, officials from China
and Japan did not sit down together.

China’s Wang had rejected an offer of talks with Japan
and said: “This will hinge on whether the Japanese side is
willing to amend the erroneous policy towards China and
improve relations between China and Japan. Japan should
correct its mistakes as soon as possible to improve ChinaJapan ties.”
Wang later accused the United States of hegemonism,
threats and intimidation.
China claims almost the entire oil- and gas-rich South
China Sea, and dismisses competing claims from Taiwan,
Brunei, Vietnam, the Philippines and Malaysia. Japan has
its own territorial row with China over islands in the East
China Sea.
Riots broke out in Vietnam last month after China placed
an oil rig in waters claimed by Hanoi, and the Philippines
said Beijing could be building an airstrip on a disputed island.
Tensions have been rising steadily in the East China Sea
as well. Japan’s defense ministry said Chinese SU-27 fighters came as close as 50 meters (170 ft) to a Japanese OP-3C
surveillance plane near disputed islets last week and within
30 meters of a YS-11EB electronic intelligence aircraft.
On Sunday, Wang stepped up the rhetoric.
“Mr Abe, as the head of a country and as someone the
organizers have invited to give a speech, is supposed to
stick to the event’s aim in boosting security in the Asia
Pacific region,” he said. “However Mr Abe went against the
aim of the event by instigating disputes.”
Despite the heated words, analysts do not believe relations have deteriorated beyond reach.
“In the past, there was a sense we were sailing towards
stability,” said Kishore Mahbubani, dean of the Lee
Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University
of Singapore.
“Now people worry. Overall, things are going in the
right direction. Nobody thinks there will be war, but there
is a level of unease which is new.”
Japan’s coming out
China has been particularly aggrieved by Japan trying to
woo Southeast Asia.
In his keynote address to the conference, Abe pitched
his plan for Japan to take on a bigger international security
role and said Tokyo would offer its “utmost support” to
Southeast Asian countries in their efforts to protect their
seas and airspace. It is part of his nationalist agenda to
loosen the restraints of the pacifist post World War Two
constitution and to shape a more muscular Japanese foreign policy.
Philip Hammond, the British defense minister, said
Abe’s agenda was well known but provoked a response
because it was laid out publicly.
“It’s certainly the first time I had heard him articulate it
on a public platform in that way,” he said.
Japan’s growing proximity to Washington is also a
worry for Beijing.

Japan, U.S. tussle with China
over maritime disputes
at Asia security meet
SINGAPORE – Japan and the United States, on one side,
and China, on the other, exchanged a flurry of accusations
at a high-profile Asian security conference on May 31 over
China’s actions in regional waters.
Southeast Asian nations in attendance, with many
having a stake in the maritime disputes, remained mostly
on the sidelines, apparently wary of antagonizing China.
The flare-up dominated discussions at the Asia Security
Summit, commonly known as the Shangri-La Dialogue,
organized by the London-based International Institute for
Strategic Studies (IISS). It is scheduled to conclude on June 1.
“(At this conference) not only Japan but also Vietnam
and the United States have become openly hostile (toward
China),” said a Chinese national security expert.

88

The Shangri-La Dialogue

In a speech on May 31, U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck
Hagel harshly criticized China, citing its recent provocations in the South China Sea, including the moving of an oil
rig into waters near the Paracel Islands, which are claimed
by Vietnam.
“In recent months, China has undertaken destabilizing,
unilateral actions asserting its claims in the South China
Sea,” Hagel said.
Hagel also said, “We made it clear last November that
the U.S. military would not abide by China’s unilateral
declaration of an Air Defense Identification Zone in the
East China Sea, including over the Japanese-administered
Senkaku Islands. And as President Obama clearly stated
in Japan last month, the Senkaku Islands are under the
mutual defense treaty with Japan.”
Wang Guanzhong, who heads the Chinese delegation,
said that Hagel’s remarks reminded him of Prime Minister
Shinzo Abe’s speech on the previous day.
According to those close to the Chinese delegation, after
Abe made his speech, its contents were reported to Beijing,
where officials apparently discussed countermeasures
throughout the night.
“We had regarded (Abe’s) speech as the first step in
deciding whether China holds a summit meeting with
Japan. Given the contents of the speech, we cannot accept
(Japan’s request for the summit meeting),” a high-ranking
official of the Chinese government said.
Following Hagel, Japanese Defense Minister Itsunori
Onodera repeated similar criticism of China in his speech
on May 31.
“Japan as well as all concerned parties must uphold the
‘rule of law’ and never attempt to unilaterally change the
status quo by force. Also, no country should ignore international rules and attempt to take dangerous action counter
to military professionalism in both maritime navigation
and over-flight in and above high seas,” Onodera said.
Onodera later met with Hagel and agreed that their
countries will never tolerate “a unilateral change in the
status quo by use of force.”
China expressed its strong opposition to Hagel’s speech.
In a question-and-answer session, a senior officer of the
Chinese military asked the U.S. defense secretary whether
he considers Japan’s nationalization of the Senkaku Islands
as a unilateral challenge of the status quo?”
The officer also said the United States reiterates its
defense obligations to an ally based on a security treaty and
asked, “Do you think it is a sort of threat of force, coercion
or intimidation?”
In a subcommittee meeting held on May 31, high-ranking Japanese and Chinese officials conducted a heated
discussion.
Japanese Deputy Foreign Minister Shinsuke Sugiyama
asked Fu Ying, chairperson of the Foreign Affairs
Committee of China’s National People’s Congress, about

SLD 2014 – the gloves come off
By Nigel Inkster
By general consensus, the 2014 Shangri-La Dialogue
entered new territory. Until now, exchanges at the
Dialogue had been very Asian in their circumspection and
avoidance of controversy. Pressure has been building up
for some time, driven by regional concerns about the implications of an increasingly assertive and militarily capable
China disposed to challenge the United States’ status as
guarantor of regional stability. But this year the dramatic
new ingredient was a keynote address by Japanese Prime
Minister Shinzo Abe, who expressed his desire to dispense
with Japan’s historical baggage and begin a new chapter as
a normal country and an exponent of active pacifism. Abe
spoke of Japan’s emphasis on the importance of observing
international law and norms and promoting human rights
– pointed if unspoken references to a China widely perceived within the region to be doing neither, particularly
with respect to its maritime policies. And Abe’s speech was
followed by an even more blunt statement from US Defence
Secretary Chuck Hagel, who accused China of disrupting the regional order and stating that the US government
would not stand idly by when confronted with breaches of
international law.
The stage was set for a strong Chinese riposte, and the
leader of China’s delegation General Wang Guanzhong did
not disappoint with some ‘unscripted’ remarks – actually
the product of intensive writing and rewriting deep into
the night – in which he accused Japan and the US of ganging up on China and violating the spirit of the Dialogue.
General Wang – junior in rank to the other plenary speakers – faced some tough questions, especially on the subject
of China’s nine-dashed line that lays claim to most of the
South China Sea. His answer, in effect that UNCLOS was
trumped by China’s historic claims, is unlikely to have
found favour with any international lawyer or to have set
at rest the minds of competing claimants.
This year’s Dialogue was to some degree a dialogue
of the deaf, at least with respect to those who have now
become the key actors, whose exchanges were characterised by a degree of tone-deafness. Referring to Abe’s
keynote address, one delegate observed that he had never
heard anyone espousing peace in quite such an aggressive
manner. The United States’ approach towards China was
brutal in its frankness. And China, as so often happens,
failed to explain itself to anyone’s satisfaction, confusing
explanation with assertion.
But the battle lines were unmistakable in their clarity.
China’s vision for Asia-Pacific security is a Sinocentric one

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89

that sees no place for the US, or any other extra-regional
power, a point implicit in a question addressed to France’s
Defence Minister by a PLA officer. This was very much the
vision set out by China’s President Xi Jinping in a recent
speech in Shanghai. For it to happen, Beijing has to work to
establish facts on the ground in areas like the South China
Sea and to eat away at the network of bilateral alliances
established by the US with surrounding states, a network
Beijing characterises as emblematic of an outdated Cold
War mind-set. Circumstances may, in the long term, be on
Beijing’s side.
The other thing Beijing has to do is to win an information war, which is something to be conducted on a daily
basis, not just in time of actual conflict. At present it is not
clear that Beijing is winning that war. The PLA has always
been a reluctant participant in a Shangri-La Dialogue it sees
as a Western construct and a place where the PLA leadership puts itself at risk of ambush and embarrassment. As
General Wang’s predecessor discovered, a failure to be seen
vigorously espousing China’s national interest can elicit a
wave of ultranationalist sentiment on Chinese social media
that can translate into adverse career consequences. It was
not an error General Wang can be accused of having committed. It remains to be seen whether in coming years China
will continue its established policy of underrepresentation at
Shangri-La, or whether it will attempt to seize the initiative
through higher-level representation. Either way, participants
in the 2014 Shangri-La Dialogue can congratulate themselves
on witnessing the prologue to a drama that will fundamentally shape the future of the Asia-Pacific region and the world.

Sydney Morning Herald
2 June 2014

David Johnston backs Chuck Hagel:
China destabilising South China Sea
By David Wroe

Defence Minister David Johnston says the government is
“very concerned” by China’s “destabilisation” of its neighbourhood in some of the strongest words yet over rising
tensions in Asia.
Senator Johnston backed tough words by his US
counterpart, Defence Secretary Chuck Hagel, at a fiery conference in Singapore that one analyst says has hammered
home growing security fears about the region.
Speaking from the Shangri-La Dialogue on Sunday,
Senator Johnston said “the US, Australia and Japan are very
concerned that unilateral action is destabilising the region
of the South China Sea particularly, and East China Sea”.
He added that countries such as Vietnam and the
Philippines shared this concern and that this had come
through in discussions at the meeting.

90

The Shangri-La Dialogue

The 13th IISS Asia Security Summit: The Shangri-La
Dialogue took place last weekend in Singapore. Held
against the backdrop of rising tensions over the region’s territorial disputes, and an intensifying geostrategic tussle in
the Asia-Pacific, this summit saw the most heated debates
since it was started in 2002.
The Straits Times looks back at some of the highlights
of the three-day forum, organised by the International
Institute for Strategic Studies, which was attended by 450
defence ministers, senior military officials and security
experts from the Asia-Pacific and beyond.
1. Japan wants greater role in the region
Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was the keynote speaker
at the opening of the forum on May 30. He expressed

Japan’s intention to play a bigger and more proactive role
in ensuring peace and security in the region and pledged
support for South-east Asian nations in their efforts to protect their territories.
In his address, the first by a Japanese leader at the
forum, Mr Abe also dwelt at length on the need to observe
international maritime laws.
Although Mr Abe did not directly name any country, there was little doubt that his speech was targeted
at China as he repeatedly used language that Tokyo had
employed in criticising Beijing’s behaviour in the region’s
territorial disputes.
2. US raps China, stresses Asia pivot
On the second day of the forum, US Secretary of Defence
Chuck Hagel issued sharp criticisms at China for its “destabilising, unilateral actions” in asserting its territorial claims
in the South China Sea. In unusually pointed remarks, Mr
Hagel warned that Washington would not look the other
way when fundamental principles of international order
are being challenged.
Mr Hagel also reiterated Washington’s commitment to the
region, saying that “rebalancing to Asia-Pacific is a reality”.
3. China hits back
On the final day of the forum, Lieutenant-General Wang
Guanzhong, deputy chief of the general staff of the People’s
Liberation Army (PLA), hit back at Japan and the United
States, lashing out at the two allies for their “provocations”
against China.
In an unexpected deviation from his prepared speech,
Mr Wang accused Mr Abe and Mr Hagel of ganging up
against China, slamming them for using their speeches
to attack Beijing. Their remarks were “unacceptable”,
“provocative” and went against the spirit of the from, the
Chinese general said.
4. Sino-Viet spat in spotlight
The maritime dispute between China and Vietnam was a
topic of interest at the forum. The spat was triggered by a
Chinese oil rig deployed in disputed waters last month and
escalated recently when a Chinese ship rammed and sank a
Vietnamese fishing boat in the area.
Vietnam’s Defence Minister General Phung Quang
Thanh told the forum that Hanoi will take Beijing to international court only as a “last resort”, preferring to resolve
the dispute through talks.
Madam Fu Ying, chairman of the Chinese Parliament’s
Foreign Affairs Committee, meanwhile said that Hanoi
and Beijing have to find a solution themselves and that
Washington should not interfere in this matter.
5. Post-coup Thailand in focus
Thailand, which is now ruled by a military government
after a bloodless coup last month, was also in the spotlight
at the forum. Mr Hagel had in his speech urged the coup
leaders to release detainees, allow freedom of expression
and call for elections soon.

China must immediately withdraw
oil rig: Vietnam’s Defense Minister
China must immediately withdraw its the Haiyang Shiyou981 rig from Vietnamese waters, Vietnamese defense
minister Phung Quang Thanh said Saturday.
“China must join talks with Vietnam in order to maintain peace, stability and friendship between the two
countries,” the general said during the 13th International
Institute for Strategic Studies’ Asia Security Summit, or
Shangri-La Dialogue, in Singapore.

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91

“It will benefit both countries,” he added.
The China’s incursion into Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone has sparked public anger and resentment
among Vietnamese people at home and abroad as well as
special concern around the world, the government website
reported.
Since May 1, China has deployed more than 130 ships,
including military vessels and planes, to guard the rig
which is currently stationed 80 nautical miles inside
Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone.
Chinese ships have repeatedly attacked, rammed and
threatened Vietnamese law enforcement vessels and fishing boats. China even sank a Vietnamese boat with 10
fishermen onboard on May 26.
“Given its role on the United Nations Security Council,
and its sheer size, the perverse acts China perpetrated in
Vietnamese waters are unacceptable,” the government
website said in a statement.
“Big countries need to bear bigger responsibilities in
maintaining peace and stability. All acts of bullying and
trampling the rights of others will certainly be condemned
by the peace-loving peoples of the world,” it said.
At the Shangri-La Dialogue, General Thanh said
Vietnam’s policy is to pursue peaceful solutions to the issue
based on international laws.
“Under this policy, Vietnam has acted with restraint;
we have not used aircraft, missile ships, etc. We have only
deployed coast guard vessels and fisheries surveillance
ships which haven’t deliberately rammed or sprayed water
at Chinese ships.”
“In return, we demand that China withdraw its rig from
Vietnam’s continental shelf and exclusive economic zone,”
he said.
Asked about the role of bilateral relations between
national leaders, Thanh said Vietnamese leaders have
contacted their Chinese counterparts and requested further meetings.
He said Vietnam is hoping to engage in dialogue with
China as both are neighbors who enjoy mutually beneficial
bilateral trade.
Vietnam and China have faced more difficult problems
before, he noted, such as the demarcation of their common
land border and their maritime borders in the Bac Bo
(Tonkin) Gulf.
All of these disputes have already been resolved.
“Taking legal proceedings is also a peaceful measure
that complies with the United Nations Convention on the
Law of the Sea and the Charter of the United Nations. But
it is a last resort,” he said.
Thanh called for restraint from both sides, adding that
bilateral border and territorial disputes between neighboring countries are not rare.
“The media should create an environment to help solve
disputes and conflicts peacefully and should not using pro-

Abe’s pledge to boost ties with
ASEAN real test amid China threats
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has promised stronger ties
between Japan and Southeast Asian countries, but fulfilling the pledge will require careful political maneuvering,
as he seeks to end the postwar pacifist policy and establish
a greater security role amid the rise of an assertive China.
Having made the pledge at the Shangri-La Dialogue
in Singapore, a regional security forum, Abe may need to
strike a delicate balance to become a truly “proactive” contributor to peace in the Asia-Pacific region, experts say.
Stronger ties between Japan and members of the
Association of Southeast Asian Nations could benefit the
region and position Japan to counterbalance China, but are
unlikely to be welcomed by the Asian powerhouse, whose
relations with Japan remain at the lowest point in years.
In his calibrated keynote speech at the security forum,
Abe made a veiled criticism of China and argued that
Asia must uphold the rule of law. He threw strong support behind Vietnam and the Philippines in their attempts
to resolve their own territorial disputes in the South China
Sea, not by force but through peaceful means.
“Taking our alliance with the United States as the
foundation and respecting our partnership with ASEAN,
Japan will spare no effort to make regional stability,
peace, and prosperity into something rock-solid,” said
Abe, who became the first Japanese prime minister to
address the forum.
China immediately accused Japan and the United
States of staging “provocative actions” against the country,
making it the latest instance of the two Asian powers trading barbs on the global stage.
Despite repeated calls for dialogue, Abe has not held
talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping, who proposed in
May that Asia should have a new security structure that
excludes the United States.
Abe’s push to remodel Japan’s security architecture,
which is bound by the pacifist Constitution, has alarmed
China, which suffered from Japan’s wartime brutality.
Abe denies Japan will ever go to war again, even if the
country decides to remove a long-standing ban on using
the right to collective self-defense, but Beijing has rejected
his argument.
“What is clear in Abe’s message is that Japan will help
ASEAN with capacity-building so the grouping can bol-

Sam Roggeveen: Security
forum highlights Asia’s new
confrontational era
The diplomats, military officers, journalists and academics who gathered in Singapore for Asia’s premier annual
forum on security issues and defense diplomacy on May
30 witnessed an extraordinary display of regional jousting.
In years to come, perhaps the 2014 Shangri-La Dialogue,
as the annual event is known, will be seen as just a temporary spike in tensions between the region’s major powers.
On the other hand, the gathering could mark the moment
when those powers entered a new era of competition
and confrontation. While growing antagonism between
regional players has been evident for some years, the diplomatic veil was lifted at the Singapore gathering. Subtext
became text.
Veterans of the annual summit, convened by the
London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies,
agreed they had never seen anything like it. Japanese Prime
Minister Shinzo Abe opened the conference with a speech
that, although it barely mentioned China, was brimming
with implied criticism of Beijing’s assertiveness in South
China Sea territorial disputes. U.S. Defense Secretary
Chuck Hagel was more blunt, criticizing China by name for
its “destabilizing and unilateral” action and promising that
America “would not look the other way when fundamental
principles of the international order are being challenged.”
The leader of China’s delegation, Lt. Gen. Wang
Guanzhong, deputy chief of the People’s Liberation Army’s
general staff, hit back hard on June 1, the last day of the conference. With a theatrical flourish, he stopped in the middle
of his prepared speech to announce he would depart from
his text in order to address directly the remarks made by
Abe and Hagel. He accused them of provocation, then singled out Hagel’s earlier speech, claiming it was intended to
create trouble with its “threats” and “intimidation.”
As veteran Asian security commentator Barry Desker,
Dean of Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International
Studies remarked, there was a definite “Cold War tone” to
the speeches made by representatives of the key powers.
As alarming as that may be, there is value in having such
disagreements exposed, because it elevates a problem that
will embroil the entire region. It is increasingly inevitable
that such diplomatic (and possibly direct) confrontations
will arise. How could it be otherwise? China is a rapidly
emerging rising world power which wants a greater say
in the regional strategic order. America says it welcomes
China’s rise, but this really means it welcomes China’s economic rise. Amid its so-called “pivot to Asia,” Washington

Rapid-fire questions turn
up heat on Hagel
War of words highlights tensions
between China, US and Japan
By Zhao Shengnan
When Yao Yunzhu took the floor to reply to Pentagon chief
Chuck Hagel’s speech on Saturday at an Asia-Pacific security forum, reporters relished the sense of déjà vu.
They wondered how the major general would question
Hagel at the forum for the second year running.
The director of the Center for China-America Defense
Relations at the PLA’s Academy of Military Science did
not disappoint, rapidly firing off four questions in fluent
English and ignoring two attempts by the moderator to cut
her off.
Yao, 60, said she was dissatisfied over not receiving
direct or sufficient answers from Hagel and not being given
the chance to challenge his “wrong answers”.
“During his speech, Hagel portrayed China as breaking
the rules of the international community,” Yao said.
“But you tell me which specific law China violated
when it established an air defense identification zone
in the East China Sea and which international laws the
United States consulted when establishing its own ADIZ,”
she added as the three-day Shangri-La Dialogue ended in
Singapore on Sunday.
The war of words between Yao and Hagel served as a
sideshow amid tensions between China, the US and Japan
at the forum over the situation in the East and South China
seas.
The US and Japan felt perfectly at home when making
blunt or veiled accusations against China, accusing it of
“destabilizing” the two seas.
She said the South China Sea had not been a problem
until recently when countries in the region had accelerated
attempts to draw maritime baselines and to enlarge atolls
to allow them to claim a 200-nautical mile exclusive economic zone around them.
Territorial claims by others only arose when rich oil and
natural gas deposits were found and viewed by countries
in the region as a potentially cheaper source of energy than
that from the Middle East, Yao said.
The US Energy Information Administration estimates
that the South China Sea contains about 11 billion barrels
of oil and 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas in proven and
probable reserves.
Yao said another source of tension stemmed from the
US accusing China of endangering freedom of maritime

Japan, Lawfare and the
East China Sea
By Christian Le Miere
In an article published by The Diplomat on May 29, Jerome
Cohen makes an impassioned and well-reasoned argument
for states in East Asia to utilize independent, third-party
arbitration mechanisms wherever possible to challenge
China’s maximalist claims.
This was very much the theme of a question I asked
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe at his opening keynote address
at this year’s Shangri-La Dialogue. Essentially, I asked
the question as I wanted to challenge his strong theme of
international law in his speech by highlighting Tokyo’s
seeming reticence to take the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands dispute to international arbitration. His answer was effectively
to support the statement made by former foreign minister
Koichiro Gemba in November 2012, that Japan is subject
to compulsory arbitration under UNCLOS, but it is up to
China to bring the case to court because Japan doesn’t consider there to be a dispute.
But I realized as soon as I had sat down (isn’t it always
the way?) that I had asked the wrong question, and a slight
tailoring of the content could have proven much more
interesting and even pointed Tokyo in the direction of a
potential new route to manage tensions with China. What
I should have asked is whether Abe would also consider
taking the overlapping exclusive economic zones (EEZs)
in the East China Sea, north of and separate to the islands
dispute, to international arbitration as international law

How Russia Is Misreading Asia
By Alexander Gabuev
The Kremlin’s own “pivot to Asia” is not entirely new and
should not be viewed exclusively as a response to its deteriorating relations with the West. As the global crisis struck
in 2009, Russia discovered that China’s GDP was growing
at the same pace that the Russian economy was contracting.
That same year China surpassed Germany as Russia’s largest trade partner—the position it still holds now and will
hold in the near future. The Western reaction to Moscow’s
policies in Crimea and Ukraine, however, make Russia’s
turn to the East more of a necessity for the Kremlin. During
his May visit to Shanghai, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping
watched over the signing of some 40 bilateral documents,
nearly a third of them—half-baked memorandums of
understanding. In normal circumstances these documents
wouldn’t have reached the leaders’ desks. This stack may
have been meant to impress others, but the basic truth
is: the significance of Asia (most notably China) for the
Russian economy is set to grow regardless of the dynamic
in Moscow’s relations with the West.
Pivoting to Asia requires that Russia develop a strategy which will include not only optimistic projections of
the growing Chinese appetite for Russian resources, but
also possible risks deriving from a deteriorating security
situation in the region. To craft its Asian strategy, Moscow
needs to understand the complex processes now under way
in the region and to foster an extensive network of official
and unofficial contacts with all significant players. Does
Moscow have this kind of vision? Russia’s recent showing
at the 13th Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore provides some
clues.
Over the years, the Shangri-La Dialogue, organized by
the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), has
become the one event which brings together all leading figures in defense and foreign policy communities from the
whole of the Asia-Pacific. The United States and China as
the major players have over the years sent large delegations with dozens of policy-makers (with the United States
slightly in the lead, status-wise, as its delegation is normally chaired by the secretary of defense while the Chinese
prefer to send second-tier figures).
Against this background, Russia’s delegation has always
been small. Sergey Ivanov, the current Kremlin chief of
staff, came to Singapore a couple of times as a deputy prime
minister in charge of the defense industry. Russian defense
ministers never showed up. This year the official Russian
delegation was comprised of just five people including this
author (even Germany had a larger list). Anatoly Antonov,

Regional harsh accusations
overshadow Shangri-La talks
By Ei Sun Oh
Perhaps the number “13” is unlucky after all. For, over this
weekend, the 13th Shangri-La Dialogue (SLD), the premier
Asia-Pacific security forum held annually in Singapore, was
unfortunately shrouded in a thicket of almost tangible tension.
The first salvo was launched by none other than the
increasingly controversial Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo
Abe. During his keynote speech at SLD opening dinner,
Abe made a thinly veiled accusation that China upset the
status quo in the East China Sea by threat of force.
Abe talked about the need to change the country’s legal
basis, a reference to the amendment of Japan’s pacifist constitution, to enable it to take part in “collective self-defense.” But
amiss in Abe’s extensive description of the “new Japanese”
concept was any mention of Japan’s militaristic past which
still casts a dark pall over many of its victimized neighbors.
The next morning, as if in sync, US secretary of defense
Chuck Hagel wasted no time in his keynote speech to
directly confront China by accusing the latter of unilaterally altering the status quo in the South China Sea.
Hagel followed up by officially stating the US disapproval of China’s setting up of an Air Defense Identification
Zone in the East China Sea. Echoing Abe, Hagel agreed
with the need to amend the Japanese constitution, and even
mooted the reassessment of their joint defense treaty.
The unusually blunt and strident US posture during this
year’s SLD startled many observers. But a careful examination of the recent chain of events both regionally and
worldwide may provide some clues as to Hagel’s tough tone.
A rapidly emergent China, with its attendant rising
confidence in tackling foreign and regional matters, almost
inevitably gave rise to the perception among some US
policymakers that the hitherto more or less unchallenged
regional leadership of the US in the Asia-Pacific region was
being increasingly sapped.
This resulted in the US urgency to reassert its preeminent role in at least the security matters of the region.
Hence the notions of “pivoting” and “rebalancing” rang
aloud in US rhetoric versus this region. This sense of acute
leadership reinstatement is further exacerbated by recent
US foreign policy fiascos around the world.
The Edward Snowden-revealed US blatant spying on
foes and allies alike continued to gnaw at global US credibility and moral standing. US President Barack Obama’s
own threat of use of force to resolve the Syrian civil war
was essentially upstaged by a last-minute Russian brokered deal to avert imminent attack.

China hits back at Hagel comments
By Wei Lai in Singapore and Jiang Jie in Beijing
Maritime disputes feature heavily at Shangri-La Dialogue
China initiated tit-for-tat reaction to criticism on maritime issues at this year’s Shangri-La Dialogue as the
country is expected to exhibit tougher diplomacy.
“China has had sovereignty over the Xisha and Nansha
Islands in the South China Sea for more than 2,000 years
and there have been no doubts on that from neighboring
countries for a long time,” said Wang Guanzhong, deputy
chief of the general staff of the People’s Liberation Army
(PLA) at the summit on Sunday.
Wang added that the recent disputes are mainly a result
of the discovery of oil reserves in the 1970s, reported the
PLA Daily.

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97

Meanwhile, China’s JH-7 fighter-bombers have been
on regular missions to support Chinese coast guards and
guard the oil rig in the Xisha Islands, according to the IHS
Jane’s Defense Weekly.
“It is a blatant provocation through illusive remarks
directed at China. China has never started any conflicts,
but we have to respond to provocations started by some
countries,” Wang said.
This came after Japan and the US made speeches on
China’s South China Sea disputes with neighboring countries including Vietnam and the Philippines at the summit.
Multiple vessel collisions have occurred between China
and Vietnam in the waters of a Chinese oil rig operating
near the Xisha Islands and led to riots targeting foreign
companies in Vietnam’s southern industrial zones last
month, while Vietnam have stated that it was considering
suing China over the territorial row.
The Philippines have already filed legal action to resolve
the disputes in the South China Sea.
US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said that the US was
committed to geopolitical rebalance in the region.
“China has undertaken destabilizing, unilateral actions
asserting its claims in the South China Sea. We firmly
oppose any nation’s use of intimidation, coercion or the
threat of force to assert these claims,” said Hagel.
Japan also vowed to play a “more proactive role” in
making peace and it would support ASEAN countries’
efforts, said Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe at the
summit, the BBC reported.
Wang described Hagel’s speech as “full of hegemony,
full of words of threat and intimidation … to create troubles and make provocations.”
China will continue to step up dialogue and coordination with ASEAN in defense and security areas, Wang said.
Jin Canrong, deputy director of the School of
International Studies at the Renmin University of China,
told the Global Times that it may become “normal practice”
for China and the US to leave “aggressive” comments. “But
the outspokenness in public does not indicate the two sides
will reach beyond the bottom line,” said Jin.
The Shangri-La Dialogue, officially known as the Asian
Security Summit, is organized by the International Institute
of Strategic Studies (IISS), a London-based think tank.
Alexander Neill, a senior research fellow with IISS,
said that the summit is an open platform and would like
to cooperate with China to hold a branch dialogue in the
country.
An anonymous military representative from Indonesia
told the Global Times that China is more similar to ASEAN
countries in terms of economic development and the security order in Asia could not be solid without China.
Chinese President Xi Jinping clearly stated during his
visit to Europe in March that the new security concept
in Asia would not exclude countries beyond the region,

Asia Territory Spats Pose Danger
to Trade, Singapore Warns
By Rosalind Mathieson and Linus Chua
The risk of territorial disputes damaging trade in Asia is
“very real” and the region must focus on shoring up economic links as well as security ties, according to Singapore
Defence Minister Ng Eng Hen.
“It’s completely artificial to think that there are somehow firewalls between trade and security,” Ng, 55, said
yesterday in an interview at the Ministry of Defence. “We
shouldn’t from a security point of view be dominating
headlines every few other days and I don’t think it’s necessarily a positive if this continues for the region. At some
point it may impact trade and our real economies.”
Ng was speaking after a weekend forum of defense
ministers and military leaders in Singapore, where the U.S.
and China openly criticized each other over their agenda in
the region and China’s claims over large parts of the East
China Sea and South China Sea dominated discussion. The
meeting highlighted the growing pains in Asia as China
emerges as a military and economic power, challenging
decades of U.S. dominance.
“China’s rise is a fact,” Ng said in the interview. “China
needs to articulate its own vision, and its own position in
this new, revised world order. Our approach has been that
dialogue is essential, inclusivity is important.”

‘Destabilizing’ Actions
U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel used a May 31 speech
at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore to say China
has in recent months “undertaken destabilizing, unilateral actions asserting its claims in the South China Sea,”
while Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said Japan did
not welcome dangerous encounters by jets or warships.
Lieutenant General Wang Guanzhong, the deputy chief of
general staff of the People’s Liberation Army, broke from
his prepared remarks to the forum to call their speeches
“unimaginable.”
“If China and Japan got into a war, that would be a real
problem,” Norman Boersma, Bahamas-based chief investment officer of Templeton Global Equity Group, which
manages $130 billion in assets, said in an interview in
Singapore. “These are two big economies and they would
have a fundamental impact.”
The U.S. comments follow Vietnamese Prime Minister
Nguyen Tan Dung’s appeal for a “stronger voice” from the
U.S. against China after clashes between coast guard and
fishing vessels near an oil rig China placed in contested
waters off Vietnam’s coast. The Philippines, dwarfed militarily by China, has sought support from the U.S. and the
United Nations against China’s encroachment into shoals
off its coast.
Quite Strategic
Ng, a medical doctor who previously served in the education and manpower portfolios, said given the current
tensions, the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership trade pact
and other multinational deals are “quite strategic, not just
good to have but a must to have.” The U.S.-led 12-nation
TPP, which would cover an area with about $28 trillion in
annual economic output, doesn’t include China.
“You certainly don’t want a scenario where your
frameworks are weighted towards security,” Ng said.
“From Singapore’s point of view we would not be upset
if for example there were no big issues to discuss at the
Shangri-La Dialogue. That’s not a bad outcome for us.”
Under President Xi Jinping, China has taken a more
assertive approach to territory. It claims much of the South
China Sea under its “nine-dash line” map, first published
in 1947. The map extends hundreds of miles south from
China’s Hainan Island to equatorial waters off the coast
of Borneo, taking in some of the world’s busiest shipping
lanes. Brunei, Malaysia and the Philippines also claim parts
of the sea, while Singapore is not a claimant.
Self-Restraint
The 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations on
May 12 called for self-restraint on the territorial disputes.
The statement did not mention China by name and Asean
does not take a position on the actual claims. China is
Asean’s biggest trading partner.
Asean is seeking a code of conduct for the waters,
although talks have made little progress since China agreed

China’s Timely Power Play
Intimidating the neighbors is most effective
when America is ambivalent about
whether to lead a forceful response.
By David Feith
Singapore: On the sidelines of this week’s Shangri-La
Dialogue, Asia’s leading annual security conference, diplomats and policy experts largely agreed on two points. First,
China sees the remaining Obama years as an opportune
time to keep pushing for dominance in the Western Pacific.
And second, China hurts itself with the sort of bluster it
displayed at the conference, essentially daring its weaker
neighbors to seek U.S. help.
Yet the first point undermines the second: As Washington
seeks primarily to minimize overseas commitments, it isn’t
well-suited to help its Asian friends resist Chinese bullying. So Beijing’s bluster may seem short-sighted, but it is
perfectly rational. Intimidating the neighbors is most effective when America is ambivalent about whether to lead a
forceful response.
At Shangri-La, China’s offensive started early. In his
keynote address, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe
stressed that “all countries must observe international
law” and highlighted Tokyo’s willingness to help the
Philippines, Vietnam and others facing illegal land and
sea grabs by China. When the floor opened for questions, a
Chinese colonel asked how Mr. Abe presumes to speak for
regional peace given his recent visit to Tokyo’s Yasakuni
Shrine, which honors Japan’s war dead, including some
convicted of war crimes.
Mr. Abe responded by reiterating Japan’s “acute
remorse” for its past, along with its commitment to democracy and human rights, but the Chinese colonel had made
his point. The ghosts of Imperial Japan threaten Tokyo’s
ability to deter Chinese aggression through cooperation
with neighbors, especially fellow economic powerhouse
and U.S. ally South Korea. So China conjures these convenient spirits at every opportunity, to the frustration of Tokyo
and Washington.
China’s second Shangri-La salvo came after U.S. Defense
Secretary Chuck Hagel criticized Beijing for “destabilizing,
unilateral actions asserting its claims in the South China
Sea,” where the U.S. “firmly opposes any nation’s use
of intimidation, coercion or the threat of force.” Echoing
Japan’s leader, Mr. Hagel stressed the virtues of “wellestablished international rules and norms.”
In response, a Chinese general posed several questions
couched in the language of international law: When Tokyo

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nationalized East China Sea islands in 2012, didn’t it unilaterally alter the status quo? When Washington says those
islands are covered by the U.S.-Japan defense treaty, isn’t
that a threat of force? When the U.S. set up air-defense identification zones like the one declared last year by China,
from what international body did it first seek permission?
Sure, the questions were cynical, and their answers
don’t favor Beijing. For one, Tokyo has administered the
Senkaku Islands for decades, and the U.S. established
air-defense zones in consultation with neighbors whose
territory wasn’t being encroached upon. But again Beijing’s
representative delivered a message: While challenging
the liberal international order with old-school territorial
revanchism, China will smugly justify its behavior in 21stcentury liberal terms.
Except when it chooses not to, explained China’s next
spokesman at Shangri-La. Yes, China signed the Law of the
Sea Treaty 20 years ago, said Gen. Wang Guanzhong, but its
right to 90% of the South China Sea is patrimony from the
ancient Han Dynasty. So China will continue ignoring the
United Nations arbitration case initiated by the Philippines
and backed by the U.S. and Japan. What are Washington
and its friends going to do about it?
Not much, boasted China as the summit concluded.
Because, as Gen. Zhu Chenghu diagnosed, American foreign policy suffers from “erectile dysfunction.” Citing U.S.
weakness toward Vladimir Putin, the general said that he
doubts Washington “will get involved or use military intervention once there is a territorial dispute involving China
and its neighbors.”
That’s a dangerous belief for Chinese officialdom to
hold. First, it signals more grabs for territory, natural
resources and shipping lanes. And if China misjudges
American passivity, it could initiate a shooting war with
the U.S. in East Asia.
Which brings us back to the Shangri-La delegates’
common view that the Obama administration is unlikely
to use force to halt Chinese aggression in the South China
Sea. The U.S. is “pivoting” to Asia but also shrinking its
military. Sixty percent of U.S. air and naval forces will be
in Asia by 2020, up from 50% today, but that will be 60% of
a smaller force.
A Pentagon assistant secretary admitted in March that
for budget reasons the pivot “is being looked at again,
because candidly it can’t happen.” Last week President
Obama excluded the pivot from his West Point address.
And the top U.S. commander in Asia warns of shortcomings
in his submarine fleet and ability to conduct amphibious
operations such as recapturing islands.
Under these circumstances, China may incur few costs
from pushing its neighbors toward Washington. Beijing’s
calculation appears to be that the U.S. will boost military
cooperation with Japan, start returning troops to Philippine
bases, make port calls in Vietnam and the like—but mostly

Uncharming & Offensive
By Dhruva Jaishankar
SINGAPORE — By the standards of Asian security summits -- generally carefully choreographed and stilted
affairs filled with coded messages and platitudes about
cooperation -- the May 30-June 1 Shangri-La Dialogue in
Singapore was extraordinary. There had been much speculation as to how China would respond to Japanese Prime
Minister Shinzo Abe’s keynote address at this annual event
organized by the London-based think tank International
Institute for Strategic Studies, and how Beijing would represent itself in the aftermath of its November extension of
an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over disputed
islands in the East China Sea and recent run-ins with the
Philippines and Vietnam over contested territory in the
South China Sea.
Much to the surprise of many in attendance, China
opted to field a large delegation that included 12 officers of
the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) -- twice as much brass
as the official U.S. delegation. And the officers, along with
Chinese civilian officials and scholars, were omnipresent,
speaking up and challenging speakers at every session in a
bid to present Chinese viewpoints on everything from disputed territory and cyber espionage to defense spending
and international law.
This may have been intended as a charm offensive,
but it proved not very charming and somewhat offensive.
PLA Maj. Gen. Yao Yunzhu engaged in a lengthy diatribe
against U.S. Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel, in which she
insinuated that upholding U.S. treaty commitments was “a
sort of threat of force, coercion, or intimidation.” She even

spoke over the session’s moderator, which didn’t win her
many points with neutrals. French Defense Minister JeanYves Le Drian went so far as to characterize a question by
Chinese scholar Wang Yiwei as “insolent.”
Yet there appeared to be plenty of offense to go around.
The Chinese delegation expressed umbrage over speeches
by Abe and Hagel. Going dramatically off-script, PLA Lt.
Gen. Wang Guanzhong called the two addresses “staged
provocations,” adding, “I feel that the speeches of Mr.
Abe and Mr. Hagel have been pre-coordinated.... They
supported and encouraged each other in provoking and
challenging China.”
Abe’s speech barely mentioned China by name -- but,
in Wang’s view, violated “the spirit of the [Shangri-La]
Dialogue.” Apparently, Abe’s announcement that Japan
would assume a “proactive contribution to peace” and
uphold the rule of law came across as far too menacing.
Meanwhile, Wang called Hagel’s presentation, which
was broadly in line with previously-stated U.S. policy, “a
speech with tastes of hegemony, a speech with expressions
of coercion and intimidation, a speech with flaring rhetoric that usher destabilizing factors into the Asia-Pacific to
stir up trouble, and a speech with unconstructive attitude.”
Needless to say, Wang’s urgings immediately following
these comments to promote strategic trust in the region
came off as somewhat insincere.
There were two broad themes in the Chinese delegation’s talking points throughout the summit. The first
was that China was simply taking “countermeasures” in
response to others’ provocations, and was entirely blameless for any of the tensions that happened to be escalating
in the region. According to Yao, there was nothing wrong
with China’s extension of its ADIZ into the East China Sea.
“What international law has China violated?” she asked
Hagel. Meanwhile, Wang described the United Nations
Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) as a “weapon”
against China -- never mind that the United States still faces
criticism in Asia for not having ratified it. Absolutely nothing, it seems, was -- or could be -- Beijing’s fault.
A second line of argument employed by Chinese officials was simple denial. Speaking at the beginning of the
summit, former Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Fu Ying, a
seasoned diplomat and charmer, accused the Philippines
of provocative actions in the disputed Scarborough Shoal,
while denying that there was any U.S.-mediated agreement (as was widely reported) between Beijing and Manila
to mutually stand down. Yao, similarly, spoke loftily about
China’s concerns about nuclear proliferation in its neighborhood but, when asked specifically about it, conveniently
sidestepped Beijing’s less-than-helpful role in stemming
the spread of nuclear technology and material.
Abe and Hagel’s speeches were forward-leaning
attempts at showing their countries’ security commitments to their region, but they were far from militaristic.

Better war of words
than clashes at sea
By William Choong
Speaking at the Shangri-La Dialogue last week, LieutenantGeneral Wang Guanzhong dropped a proverbial bomb in
the Island Ballroom.
Halfway through his 38-minute speech, the deputy
chief of general staff of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA)
accused Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and United
States Secretary of Defence Chuck Hagel of “coordinating”
and “supporting” one another in comments targeted at
China. Lt-Gen Wang said that such US-Japan collusion was
“unimaginable” and went against the spirit of constructive
exchanges at the dialogue.
In his keynote address last Friday, Mr Abe had criticised
China - albeit indirectly - for consolidating changes “to the
status quo by aggregating one fait accompli after another”.
Speaking hours before Lt-Gen Wang on Saturday, Mr
Hagel decried China’s “destabilising, unilateral actions (in)
asserting its claims in the South China Sea”.
In addition to slamming China’s behaviour in the South
China Sea, Mr Hagel stressed that the US would remain
primus inter pares in the Asia-Pacific. This was in direct oppo-

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sition to China’s view, which wants a regional order for Asians
by Asians - a position seen to exclude the United States.
In recent months, regional tensions have involved China,
be it Beijing’s tussle with the Philippines and Vietnam over
disputed features in the South China Sea, or its confrontation with Japan over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands. More
recently, the US has accused China of cyber espionage of
industrial secrets.
Moreover, the debates at the dialogue brought into
sharp relief pressing regional issues. They should help beat
the path to some degree of resolution.
In his keynote speech, Mr Abe said that Japan would
play a bigger security role in the region, by amending its
Constitution so that Japan could come to the aid of its
ally, the United States. Tokyo would also be sending coast
guard ships to the Philippines to enhance the “security of
the seas” (read: against Chinese intrusions).
Unsurprisingly, some Chinese delegates were shifting
uncomfortably in their seats as Mr Abe spoke.
But it is probably true to say that apart from China and
South Korea, many countries in the Asia-Pacific do not have
major problems with Japan playing a role in regional security.
In his address, Lt-Gen Wang gave the clearest exposition of China’s controversial nine-dashed line claim to the
South China Sea.
China, he said, discovered the islands in the South
China Sea as early as the Han Dynasty; the nine-dashed
line was drawn and declared in 1948, 46 years before 1994,
when the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea
(Unclos) was ratified. Moreover, Unclos has no retrospective effect. He added an extra sting in his bite - the US has
not ratified Unclos.
It is generally accepted that the nine-dashed line is
not consistent with Unclos, the gold standard for assessing disputed claims to maritime areas. But China’s clearer
position on the nine-dashed line should add impetus to the
conclusion of talks for a binding Code of Conduct for the
South China Sea, which would at the least enshrine norms
of behaviour.
On another front, some serious pressure was brought on
Japan to admit that Tokyo has a dispute with Beijing over
the Senkaku/ Diaoyu islands, and consequently should
take it to third-party arbitration.
Eric Li, the managing director of Shanghai-based
Chengwei Capital, lauded Japan’s “elegant” position on
the islands - while Tokyo was all for the rule of law in the
resolution of disputes, Tokyo maintained that the Senkaku
islands were not in dispute. As a result, the rule of law
did not apply. “Congratulations,” he told Mr Shinsuke
Sugiyama, Japan’s Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs,
with a touch of sarcasm.
The over-arching theme of the dialogue, however, was
the competing narratives between China and the United
States about America’s role in the region.

Countries do not have to reach
consensus at Shangri-La Dialogue
On June 2 2014, the annual IISS Asia Security Summit and
Shangri-La Dialogue concluded in Singapore. During the
meeting, defense ministers and politicians from over 30
countries attended several rounds of bilateral and multilateral talks.
As is generally the case, some countries tried to further
their interests by declaring their security strategies. This
year, the US and Japan had an even stronger incentive to
adopt this tactic. US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel said
that the US would enhance the Army’s force posture and

The perils of candour
PUBLIC rows can be a welcome relief from the stifling
obfuscation and pussyfooting courtesy in which much
diplomacy is cloaked. So optimists saw an unseemly spat
in Singapore on June 1st—between China on the one
hand, and America and Japan on the other—as a positive
development. Mealy-mouthed antagonists were at least
speaking frankly about their concerns, clearing the air.
Frayed tempers exposed the concealed limits of national
patience. Through the murk of mutual misunderstanding,
the edges of “strategic clarity” could at last be discerned.
That clarity, however, is not an unmixed boon: it revealed
the depth of the gulf separating China’s view of its future
role from the West’s hopes about what sort of great power
China might become.
The forum for the tiff was this year’s Shangri-La
Dialogue, an annual shindig for Asia’s defence establishments, held in a hotel of that name in Singapore. As an

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opportunity to air the region’s security concerns, this year’s
dialogue, the 13th, was well timed. Such worries have been
mounting sharply over the past six months, as China’s
neighbours have taken fright at what they see as its aggressive pursuit of disputed territorial claims.
In November 2013 China unilaterally declared an AirDefence Identification Zone (ADIZ) in the East China
Sea. It covered the Senkaku or Diaoyu islands, which are
administered by Japan. In January it announced the equivalent of an ADIZ for fish, in the waters of the South China
Sea, requiring foreign fishing vessels to seek its permission.
Then, in May, China moved a massive oil rig, accompanied by a large flotilla, to drill in waters seen by Vietnam as
part of its Exclusive Economic Zone; it started construction
work at a shoal elsewhere in the South China Sea claimed
by the Philippines; and it flew fighter jets dangerously close
to Japanese surveillance planes near the Senkakus.
China probably feared all along that this year’s dialogue
would be an opportunity for concerted China-bashing,
orchestrated by America, with Japan as the lead soloist.
That fear will have solidified into a near-certainty when
it learned that the keynote speech would be delivered by
Japan’s prime minister, Shinzo Abe, whom China shuns as
a troublemaker intent on reviving Japan’s militarist past.
So the Chinese delegation was not headed, as others
have been, by its defence minister. Some of the top brass
from the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), however, were
in attendance, hackles poised to be raised. They were duly
offended when Mr Abe’s speech turned out to be largely,
if implicitly, directed at China and its recent behaviour.
Mr Abe promised that Japan will play an enhanced role in
regional security. He volunteered an offer of patrol boats to
the Philippines and Vietnam—seeming, from China’s point
of view, to be emboldening those countries to stand up to
it. It all seemed to hint at a kind of regional collective selfdefence mechanism, aimed at China.
Then Chuck Hagel, America’s secretary of defence, used
his speech to endorse Mr Abe’s ideas, and to accuse China
of “destabilising, unilateral actions” in the South China
Sea. He also stressed the importance of America’s strategic “pivot” or “rebalance” towards Asia. He may have felt
the need to counter the disappointment felt among some
of America’s Asian allies about a foreign-policy speech that
Barack Obama had made on May 28th. The president made
no reference to the rebalance, and, in suggesting that terrorism remained the biggest security threat to America, raised
questions about whether American strategy had “pivoted”
at all. Asians have noticed that the pivot is a policy American
leaders tend to talk about only when they are in Asia.
China, however, will have noticed that Mr Obama also
said that America “must always lead on the world stage”.
The emerging strategic clarity is that China is no longer
happy with America “leading” indefinitely in the seas that
are China’s backyard. Moreover, Mr Obama said America

Daniel Twining: Is the “Chinese
Dream” Asia’s nightmare?
“We don’t think China wants to rule the world. China just
wants to rule us,” remarked an anxious Southeast Asian
official on the sidelines of the recent Shangri-La Dialogue
in Singapore, the largest annual gathering of Asian security experts and officials. Over two days, that observation
was echoed again and again as representatives from nearly
every Asian and Western nation asked the same question in

different forms: “Whatever happened to China’s ‘peaceful
rise’?”
Beijing’s increasingly aggressive revisionism threatens the peace of Asia and the core interests of nearly every
state in it. Recently, China has used gunboat diplomacy to
assert a unilateral claim to vast swathes of the South China
Sea; unilaterally declared an air defense zone over the
Senkaku Islands administered by Japan; seized control of
Philippine territories in the South China Sea; placed an oil
rig in Vietnam’s territorial waters, causing the sinking of a
Vietnamese ship that challenged it; intercepted American
and Japanese military aircraft in skies far from China’s;
and harassed the American, Japanese, Indian, Philippine,
and Vietnamese navies in international waters and even, in
some instances, in their home seas.
In Singapore, U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel
delivered a speech well-received by allies clearly anxious
for reassurance. He invoked America’s formidable lead
in military power and alliance partnerships. He outlined
ongoing U.S. military exercises, naval ship visits, defense
sales and other activities that reinforced the U.S. role as
guarantor of an open regional order. He rejected use of
force to assert territorial claims or limit freedom of navigation and airspace, and suggested that China had a choice:
to recommit to international rules that have produced
peace and pluralism, or to walk away from them and risk
war.
This is what the region needed to hear. Too many Asians
believe China has been pursuing “salami tactics” in the East
and South China seas -- seizing control of a reef here and
a shoal there, using armed force to drill for oil in another
nation’s waters without its consent, demanding permission
to allow Japanese planes to overfly Japanese islands in the
Senkaku chain, and administering international waters as if
they somehow belonged to China.
None of these provocations is itself sufficient to justify a
U.S. military response. But collectively, they present a stark
challenge to the foundations of Asian and global security.
China increasingly appears to feel entitled to a new sphere
of privileged interest across East and Southeast Asia. We
have seen the results of the Russian version of this mindset
in Ukraine.
Yet somehow China’s government views American
and allied efforts to shore up Asia’s shaky status quo as
destabilizing. China claims only to be playing defense
against “provocations” by others -- especially Japan, whose
armed forces cannot legally even defend American allies
against direct military attack, much less go on the offensive. China’s top military representative at the Singapore
gathering, Lt. Gen. Wang Guanzhong, condemned Hagel’s
remarks about upholding the status quo as being “full of
hegemony, full of words of threat and intimidation.” It is
not China, he asserted, but America that “usher(s) destabilizing factors into the Asia-Pacific to stir up trouble.”

Indonesia and the shifting
power in Asia Pacific
By Nur Alia Pariwita
People’s Liberation Army deputy chief Lt. Gen. Wang
Guanzhong’s impromptu speech made headlines at the
13th Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore recently.
In his remarks on the last day of the three-day meeting,
Wang lashed out at the speeches made by Japanese Prime
Minister Shinzo Abe and US Secretary of Defense Chuck

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Hagel. Wang stated the two leaders cooperated with each
other and took advantage of talking first to shoot out provocative messages against China.
In his keynote speech at the opening dinner, Abe emphasized Japan’s proactive contribution to maintaining stability
and peace in Asia. He reiterated Japan’s respect for the rule of
law, democracy and human rights many times in his speech.
Abe tried to persuade the international community that
the changing regional security architecture in Asia had
pushed Japan to reconstruct the legal basis to the right of
collective self-defense and to international cooperation,
including the use of force in Japan’s international peace
mission to protect civilians.
“Diplomatic speech” by Abe powerfully hinted that
Japan ought to reinterpret its constitution in an attempt to
safeguard national interests in the East China Sea and to
foster security and order in the region.
The rise of nationalism and remilitarization has become
an intense debate in Japan these days, whether Japan
should play a great and more active role in rebalancing
power in Asia or stay on the “conventional pacifism” track
with the mandate to create peace by a peaceful means.
The next day, a more frank and direct speech was given
by Hagel. He said that China had taken unilateral actions
regarding its claims in the South China Sea and declaration
of an Air Defense Identification Zone in the East China Sea.
Those actions, he said, have undermined stability in
Asia. Even though the US takes no position on competing
territorial claims, it certainly opposes any use of intimidation, coercion and force in asserting claims.
As in the past, the 2014 Shangri-La Dialogue, hosted
by London-based think tank the International Institute
for Strategic Studies (IISS), was intriguing. It is (usually)
a “diplomatic” meeting, but China’s reaction to Japan and
the US this year was noteworthy behavior.
Some say it looked like a drama, while others labeled it
as a portrayal of the escalation of distrust among countries
in Asia Pacific. However, at the same time, each country still
shows eagerness to raise their objections and points of view.
This depicts the essence of dialogue itself as an attempt to
open a debate forum and find a peaceful solution.
But what can Indonesia learn from the Shangri-La
Dialogue this year anyway? One thing for sure is the
next Indonesian president has a more challenging job
in response to shifting power in Asia Pacific. The way in
which the upcoming government formulizes its foreign
and security policy will come under the regional and international spotlights.
Then there are several points that should become the
main concerns of the seventh president of Indonesia in
shaping his foreign and security policy.
First is continuation of President Susilo Bambang
Yudhoyono’s policy. During his two terms as president,
Indonesia has had quite impressive track records in for-

South China Seas: Troubled waters
Beijing has built up its navy and is more
assertive in the region, raising fears it
will lay claim to disputed shores
By Demetri Sevastopulo
When Wen Jiabao visited Japan as Chinese premier in
2007, he and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe agreed
to make the East China Sea an area of “peace, co-operation
and friendship”. Following suit, his successor Li Keqiang
used an almost identical phrase about the South China Sea
last October when he met the leaders of the Association of
Southeast Asian Nations in Brunei.
Despite the rhetoric about harmonious seas, countries
from Vietnam and the Philippines to Japan and the US are
increasingly critical of what they see as aggressive Chinese
behaviour in the region.
In a recent speech at the Shangri-La dialogue in Singapore,
Chuck Hagel, US defence secretary, said what many southeast Asian countries believe but are wary of articulating too
forcefully out of fears about Chinese retaliation: “China has
called the South China Sea ‘a sea of peace, friendship, and cooperation’ and that’s what it should be. But in recent months,
China has undertaken destabilising, unilateral actions asserting its claims in the South China Sea.”
From Manila to Washington, experts are trying to
answer what Rory Medcalf, an Asia security expert at the
Lowy Institute, describes as the “billion dollar question”:
why is China taking a more assertive stance over territorial claims in the South China Sea that have, in most cases,
existed for decades?
Where some see an emerging power flexing its new
naval muscles, others view a bolder ambition to push
the US navy out of the western Pacific where it has been
dominant since the second world war. The tensions are
mounting at a pace that worries everyone from military
planners in the Asia-Pacific region to multinational retailers and global energy companies.
In the latest example of friction, scores of Chinese and
Vietnamese naval, coast guard and fishing vessels are
playing a dangerous game of maritime chicken near the
disputed Paracel Islands after China infuriated Vietnam by
starting to drill for hydrocarbons. The spat has also sparked
deadly anti-Chinese riots in Vietnam that forced factories
supplying everyone from Apple to Adidas to temporarily
halt production.
“It is still very serious, not only for Vietnam, but also
for the region and the world,” said Chi Vinh Nguyen,
Vietnam’s deputy defence minister. “They violated inter-

national laws when they placed the oil rig in our exclusive
economic zone and continental shelf.”
Hanoi is mulling taking China to international court,
following Manila, which has seen relations with Beijing
plummet since Chinese ships wrested control of a
Scarborough Shoal reef from the Philippines in April 2012
after a tense month-long stand-off.
In his new book Asia’s Cauldron: The South China Sea
and the End of a Stable Pacific, Robert Kaplan says there
is “nothing unusually aggressive” about China’s actions
given its geography and aim to prevent foreign powers
taking advantage as they did in the past two centuries. “The
fact that it seeks to dominate an adjacent sea crowded with
smaller and much weaker powers, where there is possibly
a plenitude of oil and natural gas, is altogether natural,” he
concludes.
China argues that Hanoi and Manila have breached the
code of conduct, or drilled in waters claimed by China
China dismisses the view it is raising tensions. At
the Shangri-La dialogue, Lieutenant General Wang
Guanzhong, a top Chinese officer, accused Mr Hagel and
Mr Abe – who gave a highly critical speech on China – of
teaming up to provoke Beijing.
The US accepts that the Chinese military will play
a bigger regional role as it grows. But General Martin
Dempsey, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, said
China was using its military muscle in a “provocative” way
that would complicate the search for diplomatic solutions.
“We had discussions just two years ago that regional
powers . . . would not use military force or the military
instrument of power in order to pressurise what is rightly
a diplomatic issue and that dynamic has changed, so now
there is military power being used to pressurise the diplomacy,” he said in a joint interview.
Just this year, Chinese warships have tried to block
Philippine boats from resupplying a ship called the Sierra
Madre that is lodged on the Second Thomas Shoal in the
disputed Spratly Islands. Manila has also accused Beijing
of breaching a 2002 regional code of conduct by reclaiming land at Johnson South, another reef in the Spratlys, for
the possible construction of a runway. There have also been
reports that China wants to turn nearby Fiery Cross Reef
into an artificial island that would help it to project power
in the South China Sea and beyond into the Pacific.
China argues that Hanoi and Manila are being hypocritical, saying they have breached the code of conduct, or
drilled in waters claimed by China. Tommy Koh, a widely
respected former Singaporean ambassador to the US and
maritime law expert, points out that none of the six claimant nations in the South China Sea have adhered to the
letter of the law of the code of conduct.
Some think China is responding to what it sees as
growing US interference in its back yard. During the Bush
administration, the US was so preoccupied with Iraq and

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Afghanistan that many Asian nations worried it was losing
sight of China as its navy and coastguard grew.
In 2010, the US signalled a shift. Speaking in Hanoi,
Hillary Clinton, then Barack Obama’s secretary of state,
declared the South China Sea was in the US “national interest” – a remark that infuriated China, coming just months
after Beijing had called the waters one of its “core” interests.
Two years later, Leon Panetta, then US defence secretary, told Asian defence ministers in Singapore that the
Pentagon would boost its presence in the Pacific as part
of a “pivot” to Asia. En route home, he flew to Vietnam,
becoming the first Pentagon chief to visit the country in
decades, and signalling to China that US-Vietnam relations
were warming. Washington has since signed deals with
Australia and the Philippines to base troops, planes and
ships in those countries on a rotational basis.
Chris Johnson, a former Central Intelligence Agency
China expert at CSIS, said: “From a strategic or military
operational point of view, China looks around and from
the Japanese islands down to the Philippines they see this
net of US alliances and other defence arrangements that
box them in.”
He argued China was responding to more than the
“pivot”. It decided in the mid-1990s to focus on Taiwan
instead of the South China Sea, where it had been building
infrastructure on places such as Mischief Reef. But since the
2008 election of President Ma Ying-jeou in Taiwan, ties with
Taipei have sharply improved, allowing China to focus on
its maritime claims.
In 2012, Hu Jintao, then Chinese president, gave a strong
hint of the future when he announced in a major speech
that the Communist party would “build China into a maritime power” – in what was the first time the country had
declared itself a maritime power in 500 years. Towards that
aim, China is creating a “blue water” navy that can operate far from its shores, and particularly beyond the “first
island chain” that separates the South China, East China
and Yellow seas from the Pacific.
“Chinese leaders believe strongly that as a rising great
power they should have a sphere of influence in Asia, much
like the US has maintained in the western hemisphere since
its 19th-century articulation of the Monroe Doctrine,” said
Paul Haenle, head of the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center in
Beijing.
Many capitals worry that China will ignore international rules as it expands its sphere of influence. They point
to the “nine-dash line” – a marking on Chinese maps that
encloses most of the South China Sea, suggesting that China
claims most of the waters, which critics say would contravene the UN Convention of the Law of the Sea [Unclos].
Gen Wang said the line was created in 1948 after the
Paracels and Spratlys were returned to China following
the Cairo and Potsdam declarations. He said China discovered them more than 2,000 years ago and that their

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The Shangri-La Dialogue

sovereignty had not been contested until the 1970s when
energy resources were discovered in the South China Sea.
While critics such as Jay Batongbacal at the University
of the Philippines describe that view as “really misleading”
(Unclos does not recognise historical claims to waters), Gen
Wang’s explanation highlights that China does not want
to be bound by an international system developed when it
was a weak country.
“It is naive to believe that a strong China will accept
the conventional definition of what parts of the sea around
it are under its jurisdiction,” Lee Kuan Yew, Singapore’s
founding father, said in March.
While this view is uncomfortable listening for China’s
neighbours, it poses a particular dilemma for the US, as it
balances the various strands of its broad relationship with
Beijing. In 2012, Manila was disappointed that US ships did
not appear to help its treaty ally during the Scarborough
Shoal incident. Mr Johnson said the outcome signalled
that the US would not match rhetoric with action and
reinforced the view in China that Mr Obama was “fundamentally weak”.
“Scarborough Shoal has changed hands for the first
time in 20 plus years . . . and there has been no reaction.
That definitely gives people in the region pause,” said
Mr Johnson.
Some experts think China has been emboldened by the
perception that the Obama administration would not risk a
conflict with China over the South China Sea, and that only
a conflict between China and Japan, Washington’s key ally
in Asia, would trigger US military action. “I would agree
that that will be the case under this US president, but we’ll
see what happens under a new US president in 2017,” said
Mr Haenle. “Chinese actions and behaviour over the next
two years will impact how fast and how far the pendulum
will swing in the other direction.”
Some American officials think China’s assertive behaviour will push its neighbours closer to the US, but other
observers are less sanguine given China’s pivotal role as a
trading partner for Asean. Asked whether China was sending Vietnam more into the US orbit, Gen Nguyen said: “I
don’t think so. We are standing alone . . . we don’t stand on
one side or the other side.”
General Phung Quang Thanh, Vietnam’s defence minister, stressed that Hanoi would stay independent. But he
said it was considering allowing foreign ships to use facilities at Cam Ranh Bay, a strategic deepwater port, which
would also help US operations in the South China Sea.
Mr Medcalf thinks the jury is out on whether China has
miscalculated, but adds that “China cannot be certain that
it is not hurting itself” with its assertive actions.
Either way, says Mr Johnson, the US needs urgently
to “rearm our toolkit” to meet the challenges from China.
“Relying on the other team to consistently score own goals
is not a strategy. That is wishful thinking.”

Superpowers turn up the heat in their
struggle for the upper hand in Asia
Smaller nations may be forced to take sides as
Washington, Tokyo and Beijing turn up the heat
in their struggle for the upper hand in region
By Kristine Kwok
It was an annual event that was supposed to bridge differences. Instead, three regional powers - China, the United
States and Japan - blamed each other for causing instability
in the region, leaving the less powerful nations of Southeast
Asia feeling caught in the middle.
And participants at the recent Shangri-La Dialogue
- also known as the Asian Security Summit - say the sniping is just getting started. There’s likely to be growing
antagonism between China and the US as Beijing accuses
Washington of cementing regional alliances to stand up to
the communist nation.
Weaker nations may be forced to answer the question
they sought to avoid during the cold war: which side are
you on?
At the summit, the diplomatic squabbles kicked off with
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s keynote speech on
May 30. He said Japan should play a greater role as a protector in the region.
Abe said Tokyo would support Southeast Asian countries with, for instance, patrol vessels, as they sought to
protect their borders against incursions by Beijing. “Japan
will offer its utmost support for the efforts of the countries
of Asean [Association of Southeast Asian Nations] as they
work to ensure the security of the seas and the skies,” Abe
said.
The next day, US Defence Secretary Chuck Hagel was
more blunt. He accused Beijing of de-stabilising the region
through intimidation and coercion.
“The United States will not look the other way when
fundamental principles of the international order are being
challenged,” he said.
Wang Guanzhong , deputy chief of the general staff
of the People’s Liberation Army and head of the Chinese
delegation to the meeting, said Hagel’s speech was “full of
hegemony” and could cause instability.
Wang said the attacks on China by the US and Japan
appeared to be “coordinated”. “Abe and Hagel’s speeches
gave me a feeling that they were singing a duet,” Wang
said. “They supported and encouraged each other and used
their speeches to instigate provocations against China.”
As the great powers traded barbs, the region’s security
and strategy leaders watched with concern.

Selected press coverage

109

Some delegates applauded Abe’s ambition , but others
said they worried that the competition for influence could
exacerbate tensions.
Carl Thayer, of the University of New South Wales at
the Australian Defence Force Academy, said the smaller
nations were like corks floating “in the ocean with big
powers smashing the water”. “How do they stay in the
centre and not get pushed aside?”
Participants who would welcome a greater security
role for Japan said it would be a counterbalance to China’s
increasingly assertive behaviour in the South China Sea.
It was particularly well received among delegates from
Vietnam and the Philippines, which have territorial disputes with China.
Others at the summit said that dealing with a democratic power like Japan would afford greater predictability,
something China did not offer.
Indonesian delegate Dewi Fortuna Anwar said that in
the 2000s, China was a neighbour that would “go out of its
way” to foster friendly relationships with Asean countries.
But since about 2008, Beijing had become more aggressive and started to “push itself forward”, leaving the region
puzzled, the academic said.
“It’s easy to build distrust, but to restore trust takes a long
time. And we like predictability,” said Anwar, who is a senior
adviser to Indonesia’s vice-president. “You cannot put your
charm on and off. There has to be some predictability.”
China, which still bitterly remembers Japan’s wartime
atrocities, has warned that Abe’s plan to change the country’s defence policy would signal a return to militarism.
But Anwar said Japan had enough checks and balances
to prevent that from happening.
Before he goes much further, Abe must convince a wary
public at home of the benefits of dispatching troops to play
regional protector.
Japan’s constitution forbids the Self Defence Force from
doing anything beyond protecting its own territory. Abe
and his Liberal Democratic Party are now seeking to reinterpret the “no war” provisions so that the defence forces
can participate in so-called collective self-defence - aiding
allies that are under attack and protecting its citizens
abroad.
Abe’s speech at the Shangri-La Dialogue concerned
some delegates.

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Since the inception of the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue in 2002, this unique experiment in multilateral defence
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“[The Shangri-La Dialogue] has developed into a platform, a venue, a bridge, an opportunity, to go
beyond what you had envisioned when we first discussed [the Dialogue] in 1999 and 2000. So I’m very
pleased of my career association with your conference. I want also to recognise the International Institute
for Strategic Studies for its continued support of this effort, as well as other efforts across the globe, as
they convene, in a continuing and very relevant way, these important opportunities to exchange ideas,
and have an opportunity to go deeper down into the great challenges and opportunities of our time.”
Chuck Hagel, US Secretary of Defense
“It is a very, very significant meeting…You can rest assured we will always be back at every
opportunity to Shangri-La.”
David Johnston, Australian Minister of Defence
“I would like to express our gratitude to the International Institute for Strategic Studies and the
government of Singapore for your hospitality and excellent organisation of this event.”
Anatoly Antonov, Deputy Minister of Defence