Mark Kiszla

Kiszla: Peyton Manning can't win the Super Bowl by himself

Denver Broncos Quarterback Peyton Manning signals a touchdown after a pass to tight end Jacob Tamme for a 1 yd touchdown pass with 4:48 left in the game to take the lead over the Pittsburgh Steelers during the fourth quarter of play in Sports Authority Field at Mile High in Denver, CO Sunday September 9, 2012. John Leyba/The Denver Post (The Denver Post | John Leyba)

Everybody knows Peyton Manning is the No. 1 reason the Broncos have a shot to win the Super Bowl.

So here's the paradoxical riddle Denver must solve: If the team counts on a 38-year-old Manning to be its most valuable player game after game, the Broncos probably have zero chance to win the Super Bowl.

While oddsmakers in Las Vegas list Denver as the best team in the AFC, with 7-1 odds of winning the NFL championship, that's a sucker bet guaranteed to steal rent money from gullible Broncomaniacs, unless Manning finds a different way to win in 2014.

"I'm sorry," said Manning in the hour after that stunning 43-8 beatdown by Seattle in February. He was bravely and graciously taking responsibility for the Super Bowl blowout.

There was no need to apologize, though.

The truth: No NFL team is more dependent on one player than the Broncos are reliant on Manning. Oh, it might be close with Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay or Tom Brady in New England. But you take Manning off the Broncos, and they would be lucky to win six regular-season games.

The major issue for this team from now through opening night of the regular season is well defined. How do the Broncos become less dependent on their veteran quarterback without undermining the identity that allowed them to finish 13-3 in back-to-back seasons of the Manning era?

In a sports world that has developed an insatiable appetite for metrics, here's food for thought: After 13 weeks of the 2013 season, the Broncos were averaging an astonishing 38.8 points per game and outscoring foes by more than 12 points per contest. During their final six games, including three in the playoffs, the Broncos averaged 24.8 points per game and outscored foes by a little more than three points per contest.

When he coached the Broncos, Mike Shan- ahan helped make John Elway a more efficient QB. They ended up winning two Super Bowls together. Peyton Manning, left, can't win the Super Bowl by himself either. (Ed Andrieski, The Associated Press)

Yes, the competition grew tougher in the playoffs. But I would also suggest NFL rivals, starting with San Diego coach Mike McCoy, began to figure out how to slow down a Denver offense that was based on quick reads by Manning's brilliant mind to compensate for physical limitations the quarterback readily acknowledges.

If you buy the premise that foes are catching up to Denver's attack, the forecast for 2014 is challenging, as a team that outscores the opposition by a field goal per game seems more likely to finish with 10 or 11 victories rather than with the AFC's best record.

Denver knows it must change the way it plays football, and give Broncos executive John Elway credit for attacking the problem with millions of dollars. Elway, however, absolutely needs his heavy investment in defensive free agents DeMarcus Ware, Aqib Talib and T.J. Ward to pay off. Rookie cornerback Bradley Roby can be a project, with the mistakes common for a first-year player, but he absolutely needs to be a major contributor as the regular season enters the home stretch.

The Broncos were the most prolific scoring team in NFL history last season. But what do the five highest-scoring teams in league annals have in common? None won the Super Bowl. On the other hand, during the past 10 seasons of a pass-happy era, the league champ has surrendered an average of 301 points per game, more than 30 percent less than the 399 allowed by the Broncos in 2013.

What might help Denver improve defensively is if the pedal-to-the-metal aggressiveness of the Manning offense is augmented by methodical ball control. Lose a little of the hurry, hurry. Add a little ground and pound. That's one reason moving Orlando Franklin to guard makes sense.

One of the great myths of Broncos history is Dan Reeves' conservative nature held back the talent of Elway, costing a gunslinging QB championships early in his storied career. The only time Elway threw more than 600 passes during any season in his career? Answer: 1985, with Reeves as coach. The lone time Elway passed for more than 4,000 yards in a season? Answer: 1993, when the Broncos finished 9-7 with Wade Phillips as coach.

Contrary to football legend, Mike Shanahan did not turn Elway loose. Shanahan made Elway a more efficient quarterback. When did Elway record a 93.0 that was the highest quarterback rating of his career? Answer: 1998, a championship season when he averaged a modest 215.8 yards passing per game.

Elway won the Lombardi Trophy twice at the end of his career because running back Terrell Davis was the best player on the team. What Manning needs is a Denver teammate he can trust enough to lead the way back to the Super Bowl. At age 38, it would be foolish for Manning to do all the heavy lifting.

Want to believe the Broncos have better than 7-1 odds to win the Super Bowl?

Put it this way: Unless Von Miller, Ware or even Montee Ball can take turns being the best player on the field at least as often as Manning, it's likely the Hall of Fame quarterback will retire without winning another championship ring.

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