2017-11-15

1. Real estate investment is strongest relative to prior cycles
2. Fixed asset investment over the past three months is slower than it has ever been, and the downturn hasn't officially begun
3. Private fixed asset investment is near the prior cycle lows (set in spring 2016)

Implication: if the credit cycle isn't aborted earlier than before, it looks like nearly all measures of FAI could fall into full blown recession (at least mid-single digit declines in some categories) before growth bottoms out. That's assuming another bailout later next year.