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Markets Pulse

New Mood, but No Clean Slate in Asia

By Duncan Mavin, Tom Orlik

In the first days of 2013, Asia is manufacturing optimism.

Export economies in South Korea and Taiwan are picking up steam. Both saw manufacturing activity expand in December for the first time since last spring, according to HSBC’s December purchasing managers’ indexes.

In China, official PMI data out Tuesday showed the manufacturing sector expanded for the third month in a row after a summer of some discontent.

Stock markets are getting in on the act, too. Hong Kong’s shares hit their highest level since summer 2011 Tuesday. Other leading stock exchanges posted gains, helped by the positive Chinese data and Washington’s last-minute maneuvering to avert the so-called fiscal cliff.

Maintaining the positive momentum, though, won’t be easy.

China’s leaders have to walk their own policy tightrope between rebalancing the economy and kick-starting it. Société Générale sees a 30% chance of a hard landing in China, in which gross domestic product growth would dip below 6% in 2013 compared with around 7.7% in 2012.

The region’s exporters also face a still-uncertain U.S. recovery and weakness in Europe. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development estimates that a severe downturn in Europe could shave 2.3 percentage points of GDP growth in Japan in 2013, and 1.2 percentage points in China. Recent export-related data suggest the way ahead is unclear. In Singapore, a bellwether for Asian exports, a disappointing fourth quarter meant gross domestic product grew by 1.2% in 2012, below the government’s forecast for 1.5%. In South Korea, exports fell 5.5% year on year in December—though one factor may have been fewer working days because of the country’s elections.

In short, many of the concerns that dragged on Asia’s export-driven economies last year are still present. The signs at the beginning of 2013 are positive, but with risks not far below the surface it might be too early to bet on a resurgent Asia.