Game Within A Game... Profiting FromYour Come Out CyclePart I

For
the past five or six years, Ive been treating the Come-Out portion of my hands as a
profit-center that is separate and distinct from the point-cycle portion of the same hand.

The
Come-Out is the PRE-point-establishing part of the hand, while the
Point-Cycle is the POST-point-establishing part of it.

The
Come-Out phase of our hand is traditionally used to establish the PL-Point that you then
try to repeat before the 7-Out shows up to end your hand.

Many
savvy players have long known that it can also be used to spawn a fair bit of profit all
on its own, and thats what were going to take a serious look at in this
series.I call it my Game Within
A Game approach to Come-Out profit.

Using
The Come-Out As a Profit-Center

If
you can use your dice-influencing skills to earn a profit before you even establish
the Passline-Point, then it substantially increases your chances of coming away from that
hand with more tied-to-current-skill revenue.

By
efficiently utilizing the Come-Out as a Game Within A Game
profit-center, your overall profit-making efficiency stands an excellent likelihood
of improving too.

The
most obvious way to extract an instant profit off of your Passline Come-Out rolls is with
a 7 or 11 winner; therefore many players specifically set for those two numbers.

In
and of itself, thats not a bad approach.A
C-O win on the 7 or 11 pays even-money (1:1) for your line bet, and if you can deliver up
multiple C-O 7s and 11s, then it makes for a pretty decent return on your
line-bet investment.

ØA
random-roller has a 22% chance of hitting either a 7 or 11 on any given throw.His 8-out-of-36 chances to throw an instant winner
means that hell likely throw a different, non-instant-winner, about 78% of the time.

ØFor
example, hell throw a craps number (2, 3, or 12) about 11% of the time (based on
4-out-of-36 random outcomes), and a box-number (4, 5, 6, 8, 9 or 10) the other 66.6% of
the time.

ØIn
other words, the random roller will throw an instant 7 or 11 C-O winner slightly more than
one-fifth of the time; a PL craps-loser one-tenth of the time, and a Point-establishing
box-number about two-thirds of the time.

Increasing
Your 7-Winner Rate

Each
of the dice-arrangements sets that we are discussing today offer something a little
different from the next, and before you blindly jump into adopting any of these sets, it
is CRITICAL that you do your own research into which set produces the best results for you
and your current skill-set.

Many
people find that a 7-dominant axial set like the A-7, S-6 or P-6 fills the bill in terms
of producing more Come-Out 7s.

For
example:

ØThe
All-Sevens (a permutated Hardway-set where all of the on-axis faces are set to 7)
arrangement throws off the most C-O 7s when kept on-axis without the offsetting
effect of C-O Craps (2, 3, and 12) losers.

ØAlthough
the Straight-Sixes (S-6) and Parallel-Sixes (P-6) set both throw off as many on-axis
7s as the A-7 arrangement, they also contain a disturbing number of C-O
craps-losers.

ØFor
someone who keeps the dice on-axis a majority of the time but isnt planning on any
prop-wagers on the Horn; then the S-6 and P-6 sets arent all that attractive.

Take
a look at this on-axis outcome-distribution chart to see for yourself:

DISTRIBUTIONOFON-AXISCOMBINATIONS

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

Straight-Sixes

S-6 set

34-34 on the axles

1

2

1

0

2

4

2

0

1

2

1

Parallel-Sixes

P-6 set

52-52 on the axles

1

0

2

2

1

4

1

2

2

0

1

All-Sevens

A-7 set

16-16 on the axles

0

0

1

2

3

4

3

2

1

0

0

Even
though each of these sets has four on-axis 7s, its the OTHER outcomes that can
make or break your Come-Out betting strategy.

I
want you to focus in on the on-axis outcome-distributions for the All-Sevens set in
particular.

ØWhen
you compare the four randomly-expected Craps-loser outcomes (one 2, two 3s and one
12) against the two possible Yo-11 winners that youd see in a randomly-expected
distribution of results; and compare it against the A-7 which doesnt have ANY of
them on-axis (no 11s, but also no 2s, 3s or 12s); then its
clear that the 2:1 trade-off (four craps-losers for every two Yo-11 winners) is well worth
it.

ØBy
giving up two possible on-axis Yo-11 winners, you also dispose of four on-axis
craps-number losers.To my mind, thats
a fair trade to make when we are talking about even-money payoffs for PL flat-bet winners
and losers.

ØTo
make that trade-off even more worthwhile, you also get four on-axis 7s which is what
made us look at the A-7 set as a way to increase our C-O 7 win-rate in the first place.

Like
I said though, you have to do your own homework to determine which dice-set works best
with your current skill-set.

A
Pre-Session Indicator of Primary-Face Outcomes

One
of our chief objectives in dice-influencing is to keep the dice on-axis.Within that objective, is the additional goal of
having the dice end up on one of the four primary-faces that we first set them on prior to
our toss.

Now
obviously they arent going to end up that way all of the time or even a majority of
the time, but its a good idea to determine just how often they do wind up on their
primary-faces in order to gauge the effectiveness of some of our betting plans.

In
the scenario that we discussed above, you are hoping to throw more Come-Out 7s, and
so we set the dice in the A-7 arrangement.If
the primary-faces show up more than their 4-out-of-36 (1 primary-hit out of every 9
throws) random-expectancy; then setting them this way may be valid.Now clearly this is an extremely primitive way of
looking at your dice-influencing abilities, but it is also a quick and dirty way to do a
speedy practice-session evaluation right before you head out to the real-world tables.

You
could use either the All-Sevens dice arrangement or even the Hardways-set in their
traditional pip setup to do this rapid assessment.The
objective is to do a quick makeshift roll-appraisal without using any roll-tracking
software or any long-form evaluation.You
just want to get a rough idea of how tuned-in your on-axis and primary-face shooting is.

So,
if you are throwing more than 1-in-9 intentional primary-face 7s with the A-7 set or
more than 1-in-9 primary-face Hardways with the HW-set; then it may be indicative that
your right-here, right-now dice-influencing talents are where you want them to be
in order to make some of the bets we are contemplating here today.

Again,
this is a purely unscientific approach, but it will give you a good indication of how
grooved-in your shooting is at this very moment.Besides,
a pre-session warm-up is always a good idea when you are planning to put your money
in harms way.

Set
Re-Arrangement Often Means Profit Re-Invigoration

Let
me give you an example of how you might re-arrange a given dice-set so that it more
closely matches the specific outcomes that you are looking for.

In
Part One of my Craps
Tournaments The Basics and Beyond series, we looked at how a modestly
skilled player can set and shoot for one particular number.In that example it was done to win a free entry into the LV Hiltons $100,000
Craps Tournament, but you can also apply this to your current betting regimen and make it
part of your own Game Within A Game Come-Out approach.

Now
obviously you have to determine where your best or most dominant facial-outcomes are
derived from and set the dice that way.For
example, if you throw a lot of primary-face outcomes and youve learned to control
the number of double-pitch outcomes; then arranging the targeted-outcomes (the ones you
want to show up) on those four primary-faces makes a ton of sense.But before you do that, you have to figure out
what amount of influence you are imparting to the dice.

That
is, the more influence you can exert, the more profit-making opportunity you will get in
return. It is also true though, that the less influence you are able to consistently
impart, the less revenue-earning prospects that you will enjoy.

The
Ace-Deuce/Yo-11 Angle

Suppose
you want to extract a little more profit from your Come-Out rolls than the even-money
(1:1) payout that your flat line-bet pays on the 7 or 11.A good candidate for that would be the Ace-Deuce and Yo combination.

The
Ace-Deuce (3) and Yo (11) each have two outcome-combination ways that they can be made
(1/2, 2/1, 5/6, and 6/5).Traditionally, each
of those two numbers has a 1-in-18 chance of randomly appearing, but our objective in this
exercise is to make them appear significantly more often than that.

We
start with the Straight-Sixes (S-6) dice-set, but we permutate (transpose) it so that the
top-faces are 6/5 and the near-faces are set as 5/6.This gives you two primary-face outcomes as 11 and the other two
primary-face results as 3 (2/1 and 1/2).

This
can be a very powerful C-O Prop-bet if you make a $1 bet straight-up on both the Ace-Deuce
(3-craps) and the Yo-11.

Now
some gaming authors call these Crazy Crapper bets and say that any
skilled shooter who wagers on them must be completely out of their mind.Lets see if those guys even have a clue
about what they are talking about.

Let
me give you an assumptive example for three different levels of on-axis proficiency:

On-Axis
Outcomes:

50%

55%

60%

b

which
are comprised of

b

Primary Hits:

15%

16%

19%

Double Pitches:

10%

7%

7%

Single Pitches In Either Direction

25%

32%

34%

b

Off-Axis
Outcomes:

50%

45%

40%

b

which
are comprised of

b

One Die Off Axis:

30%

34%

32%

Both Dice Off Axis:

20%

11%

8%

Outcome

Number of
combinations

Random
Probability

S-6 set50% O/A

S-6 set55% O/A

S-6 set60% O/A

2

1

2.78%

3.13%

4.00%

4.25%

3

2

5.56%

7.50%

8.00%

9.50%

4

3

8.33%

6.88%

8.25%

8.25%

5

4

11.11%

7.50%

8.50%

8.00%

6

5

13.89%

13.75%

10.50%

9.50%

7

6

16.67%

22.50%

21.50%

21.00%

8

5

13.89%

13.75%

10.50%

9.50%

9

4

11.11%

7.50%

8.50%

8.00%

10

3

8.33%

6.88%

8.25%

8.25%

11

2

5.56%

7.50%

8.00%

9.50%

12

1

2.78%

3.13%

4.00%

4.25%

Total

36

100%

100%

100%

100%

Even
a 50% on-axis shooter is able to kick the crap out of the house-edge on both the 3 and the
11.

Type Of Bet

S-6
Player

Advantage

50%
O/A

S-6
Player

Advantage

55%
O/A

S-6
Player

Advantage

60%
O/A

Edge per roll on
Field bets, triple on 12

-5.63%

10.00%

16.75%

Edge per roll on
2 or 12

-6.25%

20.00%

27.50%

Edge per roll on
3 or 11

12.50%

20.00%

42.50%

It
is what you do with your actual edge, which means the difference between
seized opportunities or squandered advantage and earned profit or unnecessary loss.

Again,
your on-axis efficiency does not even have to come close to the theoretical 100%
efficiency to make a given dice-set work.

Even
mediocre axial control delivers up usably bettable and tangibly profitable results.

ØFor
the 55% O/A shooter with a 20% edge over both the 3 and 11 as well as the 2 and 12; the
S-6 that is permutated as was outlined above, is a Horn-bettors delight.

ØOn
the Come-Out you could also make this into a World-bet instead of the Horn since the 7 is
also expected to show up 21.5% of the time.That
little 4.83% difference-from-random for the 7 actually represents an increased
expectancy-rate of 29% (28.9742% to be exact).So
if you are seeing nearly 30% more 7s; youll probably want to do something
about that, wagering-wise.

ØBut
even if you only want to deploy $2 to cover the Ace-Deuce and the Yo-11; this would make
for a very compelling and profitable wager EVEN FOR A MODESTLY SKILLED 50% on-axis
shooter.A 12.5% player edge is not something
to be sneered at at least not by anyone who wants to convert their shooting-skill
into ascertainable profit.

Like
I said, some gaming authors call these Crazy Crapper bets.It looks to me like either they havent got a
clue about what they are writing about, or their own shooting and what they are teaching
their students is so flawed and so close to random, that their own shooting
hardly ever puts them in a position of being truly skilled. If that is the case, then I
can certainly understand why they warn their own students and even their own
certified instructors to stay away from bets like this.

If
you dont have a validated skill and you are unable to influence the dice in any
meaningful way, then you too are definitely well advised to stay away from these so-called
bad bets.On the other hand, if you do
have a validated edge, then you might want to consider how crazy you would be if you DIDNT
take proper advantage of your skill.

Next
Time

Obviously
weve only just started to scratch the surface of utilizing the Come-Out sequence as
your own personal profit-center.There is
much, much more to cover.

Coming
up, we are going to explore just how many rolls you should expect to have within the C-O
sequence.Not only will the numbers surprise
you, but well look at several ways to actually extend the average number of
rolls-per-Come-Out that you can weave your dice-influencing magic on.

Further
to that, were going to explore all kinds of betting options that are tied not only
to different dice-sets but also different on-axis efficiencies.

The
objective of this series is to show every shooter, from the barely-beyond-random 45% O/A
novice to the +60% O/A semi-pro, just how to exploit their talents and maximize their
profits during the Come-Out phase of their hands.