Sporting News MLB writers Jesse Spector and Ryan Fagan trade emails each week about a hot topic in the world of baseball. This week: Which potential wild-card winner will be the most dangerous come playoff time? (NOTE: All stats through Friday's games)

RYAN: If and when the Tampa Bay Rays make the playoffs, I really believe they are the Boston Red Sox's toughest competition on the American League side of the bracket.

It's all about the pitching. Look at that playoff rotation—lefty David Price and right-handers Matt Moore, Chris Archer and Alex Cobb. Price, the reigning Cy Young winner, has the worst season ERA of the group, at 3.43. Closer Fernando Rodney has only given up runs in two of his past 20 appearances.

And, true, the Rays have struggled to produce consistent offense lately, but I still think the basic pieces are there. In the second half, they lead baseball with a 10.3 walk percentage and are eighth with a team .329 on-base percentage (and they’re fifth among potential playoff teams). Their team BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is an awful .277 in September; what happens when/if it reverts back to the MLB average (.298) or better during the postseason? If you can consistently put base runners on in October, you have a chance to score runs and win baseball games—especially with that rotation.

JESSE: Nobody has better depth than the Rays in the wild card race, pitching-wise or lineup-wise. They're definitely a tough matchup for anyone.

If I'm the Red Sox, though, the team I don't want to see in the first round is the Cleveland Indians, with old friend Terry Francona leading the way. The combination of Justin Masterson and Ubaldo Jimenez in the rotation might be enough to contain the powerful Boston lineup. Their lineup, led by Jason Kipnis and Carlos Santana, is sneaky good, and then you've got to deal with a guy like Ryan Raburn, who just feels like one of those dudes who has a big playoff moment in him. That's far from the most analytical take on it, but the playoffs quite often aren't about being analytical, are they? (Ed. Note: Is Jimenez getting enough support as Comeback Player of the Year? His ERAs, 2010-2013: 2.88, 4.68, 5.40, 3.39).

RYAN: If we’re going to introduce the Mark Lemke element to this conversation, I’m not sure where to go from here. That pre-Eckstein second-base scrapper hit .234 for the Braves in 1991, then hit .417 in the World Series against the Twins. Then, after he hit .255 in the 1996 season, he busted out a .444 clip against the Cardinals in the NLCS. So, yeah, maybe Ryan Raburn has a little Lemke in him. Who knows?

And, look, I’ve long said Francona was an excellent hire for the Indians—arguably the best offseason move for any team—but I’m not sure I buy the Masterson/Jimenez duo. Masterson hasn’t pitched since Sept. 2 because of an oblique issue, and Jimenez has to show more than four games of good control before I’ll believe he’s ready to be a game-changer in the playoffs.

Mark Lemke hit .417 in the 1991 World Series. (AP Photo)

JESSE: The news on Masterson was good after his bullpen session on Wednesday, and maybe I'm just optimistic about Jimenez, but let's be honest, I can't really think of any reason that a wild-card team is going to beat Boston other than "anything can happen in a short series," and that's where you start looking for a Lemke. The Red Sox are really good.

But maybe we're both wrong here. The Red Sox are 6-1 against the Indians and 12-7 against the Rays. Meanwhile, they're 6-9 against the Orioles, 2-4 against the Rangers, and 2-5 against the Royals.

If you're going to pull off an upset, it's probably because of starting pitching, which we've both talked about. So, here's a shout-out as well to Chris Tillman, Yu Darvish, and James Shields. (Ed. Note: The Orioles and, increasingly, the Rangers don't look to be part of this conversation, do they?)

RYAN: I’d love to see Big Game James Shields in the postseason again, though the Royals are still very much a long shot.

Over in the NL, the Reds are very capable of running through October.

Well, they have the personnel to run through October, but something just doesn’t seem right with that team. Maybe it’s Dusty Baker—strange that a power hitter as a player (242 home runs) loves the bunt so much as a manager—but whatever the reason, they have an inability to put everything together for an extended period of time.

It doesn’t really make sense. They have co-aces in Mat Latos and Homer Bailey, reliable starters in Mike Leake and Bronson Arroyo, and I love the idea of using rookie lefty Tony Cingrani in high-leverage situation. There’s a high OBP guy at the top of the order in Shin-Soo Choo, and guys like Joey Votto, Jay Bruce and Brandon Phillips in the top half.

And yet, the Braves, Dodgers and Cardinals are all probably praying that the Reds and Pirates keep the red-hot Nationals out of the postseason.

JESSE: Yeah, I don't think anyone in their right mind wants to deal with Stephen Strasburg in the playoffs, but I wouldn't go so far as to say that the Braves, Cardinals, and Dodgers are actively rooting for the Pirates and Reds because those are two darn good teams.

There's the difference between the leagues this year. In the American League, you've got three elite teams winning the divisions, then a Rays team that's just a cut below, and then a lot of flawed contenders who can certainly beat you but don't inspire real fear. The National League has five good teams, and someone with a real chance at going to the World Series is gonna be on the golf course after the one-and-done wild card game.

Also, let's not forget that the National League wild card conversation still includes a Cardinals team that looks as very dangerous. That division race isn't over yet!