The biggest question heading into tonight’s Emmy Awards (8 tonight, ABC) is this: Just how much sway will “Modern Family” and “ Downton Abbey” have on the comedy and drama categories, respectively?

Bernie Petit

On the comedy television front, “Modern Family” has amassed eight Emmy Awards since its debut in 2009, including Outstanding Comedy Series in 2010 and 2011, Supporting Actor wins for Eric Stonestreet (2010) and Ty Burrell (2011) and a Supporting Actress win for Julie Bowen in 2011.

It dominates the Supporting Actor category, with four of the six nominations, has the favorite for Supporting Actress and is up for its third comedy series award.

Its submission as a drama series this year brought about nominations for Outstanding Drama Series, Lead Actress, Lead Actor and two nominees in both the Supporting Actress and Supporting Actor categories.

Look for those two shows to win their fair share, but don’t be surprised to see the awards spread out among other deserving shows, especially in the drama categories.

Should/Will Win: Vergara . Bowen won last year, so it’s Vergara’s turn. She’s the best in a category that would be better with Hines and Alison Brie (“Community”).

SUPPORTING ACTOR, COMEDY SERIES

Ed O’Neill, “Modern Family,” ABC.

Jesse Tyler Ferguson, “Modern Family,” ABC.

Ty Burrell, “Modern Family,” ABC.

Eric Stonestreet , “Modern Family,” ABC.

Bill Hader , “Saturday Night Live,” NBC.

Max Greenfield, “New Girl,” Fox.

Biggest Snub: Danny Pudi, “Community,” NBC. His socially awkward Abed character provides the lens through which to view the show.

Should/Will Win: O’Neill. Consider it a lifetime achievement nod for O’Neill. His 30-plus year career is defined by his roles as the gruff family patriarch in “Modern Family” and as hapless shoe salesman Al Bundy in “Married With Children.”

DRAMA SERIES

“Boardwalk Empire,” HBO.

“Breaking Bad,” AMC.

“ Downton Abbey,” PBS.

“Mad Men,” AMC.

“Homeland,” Showtime.

“Game of Thrones,” HBO.

Biggest Snub: “Once Upon a Time,” ABC. Wishful thinking, perhaps, but this succeeded in a big way with an extremely risky premise.

Should/Will Win: “Breaking Bad.” The past season was littered with marvelous acting performances and memorable moments. It should finally end the vice-like grip “Mad Men” has had on this category (it’s won in 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011).

LEAD ACTRESS, DRAMA SERIES

Julianna Margulies, “The Good Wife,” CBS.

Michelle Dockery, “ Downton Abbey,” PBS.

Elisabeth Moss, “Mad Men,” AMC.

Kathy Bates, “Harry’s Law,” NBC.

Claire Danes, “Homeland,” Showtime.

Glenn Close , “Damages,” FX.

Biggest Snub: Katey Sagal, “Sons of Anarchy,” FX. The Emmys should be embarrassed Sagal has yet to receive a nom for her role as Gemma Teller Morrow, the matriarch of the titular motorcycle gang. It’s disgraceful.

Should/Will Win: Danes. Watching her character, CIA officer Carrie Mathison , succumb to her bipolar disorder while desperately trying to prove a former prisoner of war is a national security threat was shocking, heartbreaking, frustrating and edge-of-your-seat stuff.

LEAD ACTOR, DRAMA SERIES

Steve Buscemi , “Boardwalk Empire,” HBO.

Michael C. Hall, “Dexter,” Showtime.

Bryan Cranston, “Breaking Bad,” AMC.

Hugh Bonneville, “ Downton Abbey,” PBS.

Jon Hamm, “Mad Men,” AMC.

Damian Lewis, “Homeland,” Showtime.

Biggest Snub: Hugh Laurie, “House,” Fox. Laurie, nominated the past six years, wasn’t nominated for the final season of “House.”

Should Win: Lewis. Lewis’ performance as a U.S. Marine-turned-secret terrorist was terrifyingly brilliant.

Biggest Snub: Lena Headley, “Game of Thrones,” HBO. Headley, portraying the ultimate ice queen Cersei Lannister, is worthy, as are several of her female costars. Do the Emmys hate the women on that show or something?

Should Win: Hendricks. The depth she demonstrated when her character, Joan Harris, made an ethical sacrifice to get ahead makes her deserving.

Will Win: Smith. Her conniving ways as Lady Violet Crawley and her perfectly delivered quips will be too much for the other nominees to overcome.

SUPPORTING ACTOR, DRAMA SERIES

Aaron Paul, “Breaking Bad,” AMC.

Giancarlo Esposito, “Breaking Bad,” AMC.

Brendan Coyle, “ Downton Abbey,” PBS.

Jim Carter, “ Downton Abbey,” PBS

Jared Harris, “Mad Men,” AMC.

Peter Dinklage , “Game of Thrones,” HBO.

Biggest Snub: John Noble, “Fringe,” Fox. Will Noble ever get a much-deserved Emmy for his role as the mentally unstable Dr. Walter Bishop?

Should Win: Dinklage . Or Harris. Or Paul. Or Esposito. This is the toughest category out there. Could they just split the award four ways?

Will Win: Esposito. His Gus Fring was the baddest of TV bad guys and his explosive exit is one of the best things the show’s ever done, which is saying something.