Back in 2007, spurned by the success of rookies Vince
Young, Matt
Leinart, and Jay
Cutler—as well as first year starters Philip
Rivers and Tony
Romo—I re-examined the “conventional wisdom” in the fantasy
football community which held that rookie and other first-year starting
quarterbacks struggled mightily in year one .

Most fantasy owners at the time wouldn’t
have dreamed about taking a young quarterback in their redraft
leagues. Furthermore, those owners would have also downgraded
the receivers from a young quarterback’s team when preparing
their preseason rankings. Fantasy experts and message board posters
would have even gone so far as to warn against drafting a running
back from teams expected to start a rookie quarterback, since
opposing defenses would stack the box and dare the rookie to beat
them.

The 2007 article and last
offseason’s follow-up showed that the conventional wisdom
surrounding rookie quarterbacks may be heading the way of the
cassette tape and the typewriter. Said wisdom is starting to look
obsolete.

The NFL now expects highly drafted rookie quarterbacks to learn
on the fly and resurrect their franchises, especially after Matt
Ryan, Joe
Flacco, and Mark
Sanchez did just that during their very first season, taking
their respective teams to the big dance. While fantasy owners
shouldn’t expect rookie QBs to lead their fantasy teams to the
Promised Land, they do need to realize that the landscape is changing.

Sam Bradford's rookie season ranks 12th-best
all time.

Last season, Sam
Bradford crashed the NFL’s exclusive quarterback club by having
a rookie season for the ages—from an NFL (if not necessarily a
fantasy) standpoint at least. In more limited action, both Colt
McCoy and Tim
Tebow proved their doubters wrong by showing immediate results
during their rookie seasons. While it’s an extremely small sample
size that came against poor pass defenses in meaningless games,
Tebow’s fantasy points through the last three weeks of the season
while starting for the Broncos actually surpassed Dan Marino’s
formerly top-ranked rookie season by a significant margin. The
times they are a changing, indeed.

Below is a chart that will look familiar to those who have read
the previous two articles linked above. The seasons of young field
generals of recent vintage are compared to some of the best rookie
seasons of all time, as well as to the rookie campaigns of quarterbacks
who went on to become some of the best of the modern era. This
list is based on a scoring format where all TDs are worth six
points and interceptions count as negative two points. Note that
the list is sorted by fantasy points per game (FPts/G) in order
to compare the players who did not play full seasons to those
who did. Once again, please understand that I am not implying
that these young guns will someday measure up to the all-time
greats or that they are destined to become Hall of Famers. I’m
simply trying to show how successful first-year quarterbacks have
been in recent seasons compared to how others had fared previously.
As you can see, with the lone exception of Marino, five of the
top six slots are dominated by quarterbacks who started their
careers after 2006, while the bottom five slots are filled by
players whose busts are sitting in Canton, Ohio.

The Rookie Years

Rk

Player

Year

G

Yds

TDs

INT

R-YDs

R-TDs

FPts

FPts/G

1

Tim Tebow

2010

3

651

4

3

201

3

88.14

29.38

2

Dan Marino

1983

11

2210

20

6

45

2

224.90

20.45

3

Tony Romo

2006

12

2903

19

13

102

0

240.32

20.03

4

Jay Cutler

2006

5

1001

9

5

18

0

95.84

19.17

5

Matthew Stafford

2009

10

2267

13

20

108

2

191.48

19.15

6

Vince Young

2006

14

2199

12

13

552

7

257.16

18.37

7

Carson Palmer

2004

13

2897

18

18

47

1

234.58

18.04

8

Fran Tarkenton

1961

14

1997

18

17

308

5

248.68

17.76

9

Brett Favre

1992

15

3227

18

13

198

1

262.88

17.53

10

Steve Young

1985

5

953

3

8

233

1

85.42

17.08

11

Philip Rivers

2006

16

3388

22

9

49

0

272.42

17.03

12

Sam Bradford

2010

16

3512

18

15

63

1

260.78

16.30

13

Ben Roethislberger

2004

14

2621

17

11

144

1

227.24

16.23

14

Bob Griese

1967

12

2005

15

18

157

1

191.90

15.99

15

Peyton Manning

1998

16

3739

26

28

62

0

255.76

15.99

16

Jim Plunkett

1971

14

2158

19

16

210

0

221.32

15.81

17

Matt Ryan

2008

16

3440

16

11

104

1

250.00

15.63

18

Matt Leinart

2006

12

2547

11

12

49

2

184.78

15.40

19

Drew Bledsoe

1993

13

2494

15

15

82

0

197.96

15.23

20

Josh Freeman

2009

10

1855

10

18

161

0

150.30

15.03

21

Matt Moore

2009

6

1053

8

2

-3

0

89.82

14.97

22

Colt McCoy

2010

8

1576

6

9

136

1

118.64

14.83

23

Joe Flacco

2008

16

2971

14

12

180

2

232.84

14.55

24

Troy Aikman

1989

11

1749

9

18

302

0

154.16

14.01

25

Mark Sanchez

2009

15

2444

12

20

106

3

198.36

13.22

26

Joe Montana

1980

15

1795

15

9

77

2

181.50

12.10

27

John Elway

1983

11

1663

7

14

146

1

129.12

11.74

28

John Unitas

1956

12

1498

9

10

155

1

135.42

11.29

29

Terry Bradshaw

1970

13

1410

6

24

233

1

121.70

9.36

30

Dan Fouts

1973

10

1126

6

13

32

0

84.24

8.42

Passing over ground that was already explored in the past two
articles, what we can take from this chart is that the college
game may be changing in a way that better prepares young quarterbacks
to succeed at the NFL level more quickly than they had in the
past.

I’m not advocating going out and drafting a first-time
starter as QB1 for your fantasy team, but you may want to think
twice about totally avoiding the skill players on any team that
will be led by a young quarterback simply because of that young
quarterback. Furthermore, keeping your eye on the progress made
by a young signal caller could land you a prized waiver wire acquisition
who could help your team come playoff time if you had been winning
despite shaky QB play. On the flip side, so far we have ignored
busts like JaMarcus Russell, Brady Quinn, Jimmy Clausen, and Brodie
Croyle, among others—so it’s not all wine and roses.
However, it is undeniable that things have changed. NFL teams
can win right away with a first-year starter under center, and
those young players can produce meaningful statistics right away.

It should also be duly noted that this may be a banner year for
rookie quarterbacks (based on sheer volume), with six of them
having been taken in the first two rounds of the NFL draft and
a good number of those expected to be handed the starting reigns
right away.

I’d rank their chances for success in 2011 in the following
order:

1. Cam Newton – A quick glance at the chart above shows
that a QB’s ability to gain fantasy points with his legs
gives him an advantage over other rookie QBs. The running aspect
of the player’s game is obviously more instinctive than
the mental hurdles that come with leading a passing attack. Cam
Newton is the best runner in this draft class and arguably the
best rookie runner at quarterback since Mike Vick. Newton isn’t
all about the run though. He possesses a rocket arm as well, albeit
one that is not always the most accurate. What sets Newton apart
from the other running quarterbacks at the college level is that
he does not take off at the first sign of trouble—most of
his runs at Auburn were designed runs, not scrambles—and
he can be just as dangerous using his arm. He will at least be
able to get the ball deep to the big, strong, and fast second-year
duo of Brandon LaFell and David Gettis, allowing them to make
plays for the ball. How quickly Newton is able to learn a more
complex NFL offense and read pro defenses will go a long way toward
his 2011 success, but no rookie this season (even among the non-QBs)
possesses as high a ceiling as the Heisman Trophy winner.

2. Jake Locker – Locker is also an adept runner, but his
weakness in the passing game is inconsistent accuracy. Locker
reminds me of Donovan McNabb in that he has a powerful arm, great
leadership skills, better-than-average mobility, but below-average
accuracy. In Locker’s defense, he will be surrounded by
far greater talent in Tennessee than in college at Washington.
The athletic, ball hawking Kenny Britt should be able to track
down Locker’s deep throws, and Chris Johnson can gain significant
yardage off of swing and dump-off passes. Locker may sit for a
game or two behind an aging veteran (perhaps Kerry Collins), but
after investing a high pick and seeing what Locker can do, expect
the Titans’ front office to give him the majority of the
starts in 2011.

3. Andy Dalton – Many compare Dalton to Chad Pennington,
as if that should have a negative connotation. Those people may
want to delve a little deeper into just how impressive Pennington’s
career was. In every full season Pennington played, his team never
failed to make the playoffs and he accumulated more-than-adequate
passing statistics. Dalton does remind me of Pennington, too,
but I use that as a compliment. While he does not possess a strong
arm, he is extremely smart and accurate with his throws. He’s
also used to performing on the big stage, leading TCU to an undefeated
season and a Rose Bowl Victory over Wisconsin. He should be a
very good fit for Jay Gruden’s West Coast offense and will
be able to learn and grow with Cincinnati’s young receiver
group, which features Jerome Simpson, Andre Caldwell, Jermaine
Greshem, Jordan Shipley, and No. 4 overall pick A.J. Green.

4. Christian Ponder – Perhaps the Vikings “reached”
when they chose the former Seminole at No. 12 overall, but only
time will tell if they got their franchise quarterback. Ponder
is a smart, tough, athletic competitor with a quick release and
a good arm, but he tended to fold under late-game pressure at
times during his college career. He also proved to be much less
of an iron man than the player he’ll be replacing in Brett
Favre. To his advantage, Ponder will be surrounded by far more
talent than any of the other rookie quarterbacks, provided the
Vikings re-sign Sidney Rice. There is, however, a very real possibility
that the team will sign or trade for a veteran signal caller to
start the season in order to compete in 2011. If that is not the
case, Ponder should be a decent, late-round fantasy option with
upside for those who draft studs like Manning, Brady, or Rodgers

5. Blaine Gabbert and Colin Kaepernick – Putting these
two this far down on the list isn’t necessarily an indictment
of their abilities. Rather, it’s an observation that they
don’t hold much, if any, value in redraft leagues since
the respective incumbents in Jacksonville and San Francisco (David
Garrard and Alex Smith) are expected to hold onto their starting
positions for at least as long as their teams stay in playoff
contention. Gabbert has the size, arm strength, and athleticism
of a prototypical NFL quarterback, but he lacked any eye-popping
results at the college level. The Jacksonville receiving corps
isn’t exactly over-flowing with playmakers, so don’t
expect much even if Gabbert wrestles the job away from Garrard
later in the year. Kaepernick is a fiery leader and a great athlete
but is raw as a passer and will need time under Harbaugh before
the results are there. Alex Smith has been a disappointment thus
far, but could gain some new life under Harbaugh and keep the
’Niners in the playoff hunt through December. For those
in redraft leagues, neither QB should be in your draft-day plans,
but keeping an eye on their situations couldn’t hurt.