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Governance in an Emerging New World

The George P. Shultz Project on Governance in an Emerging New World explores the challenges and opportunities for our democracy, our economy, and our security posed by emerging technologies and societal changes.

George Shultz has observed that the world ahead will not be like the world behind us. His Project on Governance in an Emerging New World explores the challenge to governance posed by changing demographics, the information and communications revolution, emerging technologies, and new means of production of goods near where they are used. Its contributors aim to understand the impact of these global transformations on our democracy, our economy, and our national security and inform strategies for how best to proceed in a rapidly changing world.

New and rapid societal and technological changes are complicating governance around the globe and challenging traditional thinking. Demographic changes and migration are having a profound effect as some populations age and shrink while other countries expand. The information and communications revolution is making governance much more difficult and heightening the impact of diversity. Emerging technologies, especially artificial intelligence and automation, are bringing about a new industrial revolution, disrupting workforces and increasing military capabilities of both states and non-state actors. And new means of production such as additive manufacturing and automation are changing how, where, and what we produce. These changes are coming quickly, faster than governments have historically been able to respond.

Led by Hoover Distinguished Fellow George P. Shultz, his Project on Governance in an Emerging New World aims to understand these changes and inform strategies that both address the challenges and take advantage of the opportunities afforded by these dramatic shifts.

The project will feature a series of papers and events addressing how these changes are affecting democratic processes, the economy, and national security of the United States, and how they are affecting countries and regions, including Russia, China, Europe, Africa, and Latin America. A set of essays by the participants will accompany each event and provide thoughtful analysis of the challenges and opportunities.

A Message from George P. Shultz

Faced with an aging and shrinking population and a weak economy, Russia’s future appears uncertain. Participants will explore how Russia is taking on the challenges posed by an aging and declining population and attempting to exploit the economic and military potential of advancing technologies.

Featuring Stephen Kotkin, Maria Smekalova speaking on behalf of former Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov, Michael McFaul and David Holloway and moderated by Kori Schake, the Hoover Institution hosted a public panel discussion "Russia In An Emerging New World" on Wednesday, October 3,2018 from 3:30pm - 5:00pm PST. The event was also be livestreamed and can be viewed here.

Even as its economy continues to grow, and it becomes a world leader in technology, China must also contend with an aging, unbalanced population and the information revolution. The discussion will examine China’s pursuit of next-generation technologies for economic, political, and military purposes as well as its changing demographics and widespread use of new means of communications.

The Hoover Institution will host a public panel discussion "China In An Emerging World" on Monday, October 29,2018 from 3:30pm - 5:00pm PST. The event will also be Livestreamed and can be viewed here.

The communications revolution has surrounded society with information, some right and some wrong, and enabled people to communicate and organize like never before. It gives new dimensions to the old challenge of governing over diversity. Participants examine the rapid spread of information and means of communicating and suggest responses to the governance challenges posed by social media, fake news, and the decline of confidence in institutions.

Featuring Niall Ferguson and Joseph Nye, and moderated by Condoleezza, the Hoover Institution will host a public panel discussion "The Information Challenge to Democracy" on Tuesday, November 13,2018 from 3:30pm - 5:00pm PST. The event will also be Livestreamed and can be viewed here.

Foreign policy starts in the neighborhood. Mexico, Central America, and South America are at the tail-end of decades of rapid workforce growth, a period during which migration was central to their relationships with the United States. The panel will address how a tighter labor supply, alongside new means of production, will affect the economic development of our southern neighbors. It will also consider whether the public transparency offered by new forms of communications can improve governance, and with it, growth.

The Hoover Institution will host a public panel discussion "Latin America In An Emerging World" on Monday, December 3,2018 from 3:30pm - 5:00pm PST. The event will also be Livestreamed and can be viewed here.

Africa will be home to much of world’s population growth in coming decades, giving it a young, growing, and increasingly urbanized population. At the same time, it faces economic challenges and will acutely feel the effects of a changing climate. The discussion will explore what these demographic and environmental dynamics, alongside the promise of advancing technologies and new means of communications, will mean for governance and development across the continent.

The Hoover Institution will host a public panel discussion "Africa in an Emerging World" on Monday, January 14, 2019 from 3:30pm - 5:00pm PST. The event will also be Livestreamed and can be viewed here.

The Europe of the early 21st century is rapidly changing, as European institutions evolve, populations age, and new political forces emerge. The panelists will review how internet and communications technologies, new means of production, and rapid flows of people are affecting governance across the continent.

The Hoover Institution will host a public panel discussion "Europe in an Emerging World" on Monday, February 4, 2019 from 3:30pm - 5:00pm PST. The event will also be Livestreamed and can be viewed here.

The United States finds itself in strategic competition with China and Russia at the same time as its traditional technological superiority faces emergent challenges. The participants will address how new military technologies might change the strategic dynamic in both Europe and in the Pacific and what these weapons may mean for non-state actors.

The Hoover Institution will host a public panel discussion "Emerging Technology and America’s National Security" on Monday, February 25, 2019 from 3:30pm - 5:00pm PST. The event will also be The event will also be streamed online at hoover.org/governanceproject.

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Facebook Live. That was the platform chosen by Jair Bolsonaro to issue his first statements after learning of his triumph in the presidential elections in Brazil in October 2018.1 It was not a speech at the headquarters of his party or in a public place. It was not the television channels or the radio stations that intermediated in the communication with the citizens. More than 300,000 people saw their statements live, and within the hour there were more than two million people who had seen his eight-minutes long message, approximately, quickly registering nearly 350,000 comments and reactions.

Population dynamics, often conceived only by looking at its size or volume, has defined opportunities and challenges throughout history. However, the evolution and changes of the demographic components of a population (fertility, mortality, and migration) are key for understanding the nature of these challenges and opportunities. In this document we analyze past and future demographic dynamics of the countries of the Northern Triangle of Central America (Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras) and Mexico, the Latin American country of North America.

As Digital Transformation reaches Central America, a strategic question arises: will it result in more marginalization, or in more empowerment? Writing from a practitioner’s perspective building on decades of lessons learned, the authors propose design principles for the transition. The region is systemically unprepared for the global forces that are hitting it, and the ability of the average citizen to generate income will increasingly decrease.

Sharp changes are afoot throughout the globe. Demographics are shifting, technology is advancing at unprecedented rates, and these changes are being felt everywhere. How should we develop strategies to deal with this emerging new world? We can begin by understanding it.

The early years of the Internet were marked by a libertarian optimism about its decentralizing and democratizing effects. Information would be widely available and undercut the monopolies of authoritarian governments. Big Brother would be defeated. President Clinton believed that China would liberalize and that Communist Party efforts to control the Internet were like trying to “nail jello to the wall.”

Once upon a time, only the elite could network globally. David Rockefeller—the grandson of the oil tycoon John D. Rockefeller—was a pioneer networker. According to a recent report, “He recorded contact information along with every meeting he had with about 100,000 people world-wide on white 3-by-5-inch index cards. He amassed about 200,000 of the cards, which filled a custom-built Rolodex machine, a 5-foot high electronic device.”

Sharp changes are afoot throughout the globe. Demographics are shifting, technology is advancing at unprecedented rates, and these changes are being felt everywhere. How should we develop strategies to deal with this emerging new world? We can begin by understanding it.

Over the last forty years, China has stunned the world with the brilliant success of its reform and openness policies in modernizing China at a pace never seen before in world history. Forty years after launching these policies, the size of China’s GDP measured in purchasing power parity terms has surpassed that of the United States. Per capita income has skyrocketed but lags behind the OECD countries because of the immense size of China’s population, now numbering roughly 1.4 billion.

The adoption of the Internet by the Chinese government in the 1990s was part of China’s ambitious economic reform and opening up. Introducing information and communication technology was seen as a pathway toward innovation, attraction of foreign direct investment, and global competitiveness. In the past two decades, China has significantly reaped the benefits of the Internet. It is now at the forefront of digital revolution. China is moving quickly toward a cashless economy and leads the world in digital commerce, accounting for 40 percent of global e-commerce transactions.

After nearly four decades as the “factory of the world,”China today is stepping into a new role in the global economy: as a hub for innovative applications of artificial intelligence.According to one recent study by PriceWaterhouseCoopers, of the $15.7 trillion in global wealth AI is expected to generate by 2030, a full $7 trillion will occur in China alone.

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H. R. McMaster was the 26th assistant to the president for National Security Affairs. He served as a commissioned officer in the United States Army for thirty-four years before retiring as a Lieutenant General in June 2018.

Sharp changes are afoot throughout the globe. Demographics are shifting, technology is advancing at unprecedented rates, and these changes are being felt everywhere. How should we develop strategies to deal with this emerging new world?

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