Some of
Julia Gillard
’s staunchest supporters are losing hope the Prime Minister will lead Labor to the September 14 election, conceding for the first time that
Kevin Rudd
is a handful of votes away from a majority of Labor MPs and closing.

Three senior sources, all close to Ms Gillard and all of whom say they will vote for her in a spill whatever the circumstances, told The Australian Financial Review they believed momentum was shifting towards Mr Rudd. Asked if Ms Gillard could hold on, one of the supporters said: “It’s hard to see.’’

As Ms Gillard took a lead role on Tuesday in trying to salvage the media changes that have stoked unhappiness with her leadership, those in her inner circle said Mr Rudd was as few as five votes short but they also accepted he might already have a majority.

People on both sides said soundings were being taken by both camps and there was confusion as to the exact numbers because some MPs were undecided or promising to support both sides.

Former Prime Minister Kevin Rudd is standing by his promise not to challenge again, a commitment he made after last year’s failed leadership bid.
Photo: Andrew Meares

Mr Rudd’s backers claimed they could move as soon as this week. Ms Gillard was confident of her position, sources said, and told supporters the issue was more about the media feeding off itself than any real substance and she predicted there would be no challenge this week or any other time.

The media package, which has increased the pressure on the leadership, was before the Parliament last night. The non-controversial bills that will cut licence fees for commercial TV stations in return for increased local content were guaranteed to pass.

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Colleagues have scoffed at Foreign Minister Bob Carr’s rejection on Tuesday of a report that he had lost faith in Ms Gillard.
Photo: Alex Ellinghausen

Ms Gillard’s camp said it regarded criticism by former leader
Simon Crean
of the government’s handling of the media legislation as confirmation Mr Crean had abandoned Ms Gillard, even though he said at the same press conference that changing leaders was not the solution.

“We are where we are and we have to deal with it through a better process," Mr Crean said, echoing widespread caucus criticism that the media package was bungled because of the way the government tried to rush it through. “I hope it is another lesson to all of us about the right way to do things."

During a caucus meeting, chief government whip and Rudd backer
Joel Fitzgibbon
was also critical.

The Australian Financial Review confirmed reports that the Aged Care Minister
Mark Butler
, who convenes the South Australian Left, had defected to the Rudd camp.

Carr prepared to return from washington

“Those stories are not true. I am loyal to Julia Gillard,’’ he said. “Julia Gillard, in my view, will lead the Labor Party to the election in September."

Ms Gillard’s camp regards criticism by former leader Simon Crean of the government’s handling of the media legislation as confirmation he has abandoned the Prime Minister.
Photo: Rob Homer

It has been rumoured for some weeks that Senator Carr has been conniving against Ms Gillard and would support a leadership push after the May budget. One of his ministerial colleagues said Senator Carr’s denial was “hilarious’’. The Foreign Minister is overseas until Wednesday and is prepared to come home earlier if needed.

In Parliament on Tuesday, Ms Gillard was defiant and angry when Opposition Leader
Tony Abbott
asked if the failure to pass the media legislation would amount to a lack of confidence in the government.

“The election will be on September 14 and let me be very clear to the Leader of the Opposition, it will be a contest, counter-intuitive to those believing in gender stereotypes but a contest between a strong, feisty woman and a policy-weak man and I’ll win it,’’ she said. “Misogynist Tony is back.’’

The Liberals said Ms Gillard’s use of the misogyny reference indicated she was under pressure.

Mr Rudd’s camp claims to have a majority of MPs already and believes there may be a move on Thursday, or even Friday if the Parliament is still sitting to debate the media bills. Asked when there could be a challenge, one of Ms Gillard’s supporters said: “Whenever Rudd gets the numbers.’’

Rudd stands by promise not to challenge

After being soundly defeated by Ms Gillard in last year’s ballot, Mr Rudd promised not to challenge again and is standing by his promise.

Ms Gillard will not stand down, nor will she agree to call a special caucus meeting to hold a ballot should she be tapped on the shoulder.

Elements of the Rudd camp are threatening to force a ballot by gathering a requisite 34 signatures – one-third of the 102-member caucus – on a petition. But no such petition has been started.

“They didn’t need a petition, they had a caucus today,’’ chided a Gillard supporter. “If they have the numbers, they could have challenged.’’

Sources on both sides say Mr Rudd’s promise not to challenge was no longer seen as an impediment. One of Ms Gillard’s supporters agreed the Rudd camp would be able to argue that the majority wants change and a challenge would be in the interests of the party.

Ms Gillard still has the backing of the trade union movement, which cannot abide Mr Rudd.