Todd Porter picks Michigan to top Big Ten football conference

Friday

Aug 31, 2007 at 12:01 AMAug 31, 2007 at 5:13 PM

Football capsules

Todd Porter

Illinois Fighting Illini

Coach: Ron Zook, second season, 4-19

2006: 2-10, 1-7

Key players: QB Juice Williams is as good as advertised. He needs to learn touch and how to slide instead of taking a hit. LB J Leman isn’t huge, but he’s good with great instincts. Ankle surgery in the offseason could slow him down.

Bottom line: Zook’s reputation as a great recruiter is on the line this
year. The Fighting Illini should be much improved, and the schedule sets up well. Remember that Illinois led the Big Ten in rushing last year, and Williams and RB Rashard Mendenhall are back. Williams should become a passing threat this year, and freshman WR Arrelious Benn will make an impact.

Porter’s projection: Get ready. The Fighting Illini will win more than they lose for the first time since 2001. Look for about a .500 conference record and sixth-place finish.

Indiana Hoosiers

Coach: Bill Lynch, first season

2006: 5-7, 3-5

Key players: QB Kellen Lewis led the Hoosiers in rushing and passing yards as a redshirt freshman. He has James Hardy as a target. Now, does he have time to throw the ball?

Bottom line: The Hoosiers will struggle this season and play with heavy hearts after the death of Terry Hoeppner, their former head coach who died in June.

Porter’s projection: The Hoosiers won’t win a conference game on the road. They might get upset by Akron. This will be a long year, and a 10th- or 11th-place finish is in store.

Iowa Hawkeyes

Coach: Kirk Ferentz, ninth season, 55-43

2006: 6-7, 2-6

Key players: DEs Kenny Iwebema and Bryan Mattison anchor the defense. Throw in LB Mike Klinkenborg, and this will be a tough unit to score on. RB Albert Young has to be a 1,000-yard back this year, or the offense under new QB Jake Christensen will struggle.

Bottom line: Some of the luster has been lost on Ferentz. The Hawkeyes should be better without QB Drew Tate, who wasn’t a teammate’s best friend all the time. Another season like 2006, and Ferentz might be wishing he thought more seriously about the Cleveland Browns.

Porter’s projection: Missing Ohio State and Michigan helps this year, plus the defense returns eight starters. Iowa has Syracuse, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan State, Minnesota and Western Michigan at home. Those can all be wins and help the Hawkeyes to fifth in the conference.

Michigan Wolverines

Coach: Lloyd Carr, 13th season, 113-36

2006: 11-2, 7-1

Key players: RB Michael Hart is a Heisman contender after more than 1,500 rushing yards last season. Throw in WR Mario Manningham and QB Chad Henne, who seems to have been around forever, and the Wolverines can put up a lot of points. LB Shawn Crable, a Massillon graduate, will be a key to how good the defense is.

Bottom line: The Wolverines are loaded in the right spots with Henne and Hart back. If Carr doesn’t win the conference title this year, he won’t have to worry about retirement. Another loss to Ohio State would seal his fate.

Porter’s projection: Yes, it could come down to another showdown with Ohio State. But the Wolverines have Hart, Henne and center Jake Long returning for their senior seasons. Michigan wins the conference so long as it can handle going to Wisconsin and hosting OSU in consecutive weeks to end the year.

Michigan State Spartans

Coach: Mark Dantonio, first year

2006: 4-8, 3-7

Key players: RB Javon Ringer has to be the workhorse. Dantonio needs Brandon Long to anchor a defensive end spot and Kendell Davis-Clark to have the same instincts he did a year ago. Both players will be better because of Dantonio. QB Brian Hoyer should show signs he is ready to take over for Drew Stanton, but Hoyer is yet untested.

Bottom line: The Spartans lost credibility under John L. Smith. Dantonio will restore it, but it will have to come gradually. A tough schedule includes consecutive games against Pitt, Notre Dame and Wisconsin early on, then games at Ohio State and Iowa later.

Porter’s projection: Ninth or 10th in the conference as Dantonio spends a season getting to know the hand he was dealt.

Minnesota Golden Gophers

Coach: Tim Brewster, first year

2006: 6-7, 3-5

Key players: The Gophers have turned out a fine stable of running backs over the years. Amir Pinnix could be next. He rushed for more than 1,200 yards last season. With Tony Brinkhaus at center, Pinnix should get 1,000-plus again. SS Dom Barber was honorable mention All-Big Ten a year ago and leads the defense.

Bottom line: The Gophers have Ohio State and Wisconsin at home. They play conference also-rans Indiana and Northwestern on the road. It could get ugly Oct. 27 at Michigan, though.

Porter’s projection: The problem with Minnesota is its non-conference
schedule. The Gophers rarely play a Top 25 team, even rarer on the road. They started 2-1 last year and lost their next four against the Big Ten. This could be a one-win conference season: 10th or worse.

Northwestern Wildcats

Coach: Pat Fitzgerald, second season, 4-8

2006: 4-8

Key players: RB Tyrell Sutton ran for 1,000 yards in ’06. QB C.J. Bacher returned from injury and seemed to grasp the position late in the year. Keep an eye on WR Andrew Brewer, who converted from quarterback. DE Corey Wootton and SS Brendan Smith lead the defense.

Bottom line: Fitzgerald has great energy. He also has Sutton and Bacher returning. The offense will be better -- but will it be good enough to contend in the top half of the conference?

Porter’s projection: This is easily the most unpredictable team in the
conference. Last year, the Wildcats lost a 38-3 lead against Michigan State and were beaten by I-AA New Hampshire, but they played then-No. 2 Michigan close. With distractions diminished and Sutton in the backfield, Northwestern could be better. No worse than eighth.

Penn State Nittany Lions

Coach: Joe Paterno, 42nd season, 363-121-3

2006 9-4, 5-3

Key players: QB Anthony Morelli took his lumps last year, but he needs to be a leader. WRs Deon Butler and Jordan Norwood have experience. A.Q. Shipley is a throwback center.

Bottom line: The Nittany Lions will be at the top again. Most of the
offensive starters are back, but both tackle positions are losing anchors from a year ago, and Paterno is breaking in a new running back.

Porter’s projection: The Nittany Lions averaged just 22 points a game last year, but with Morelli a year older and presumably wiser, that has to be better. A win over Notre Dame on Sept. 8 will create buzz, but Morelli has yet to live up to the hype that followed him to Happy Valley. Fourth place.

Purdue Boilermakers

Coach: Joe Tiller, 11th season, 75-49

2006 8-6, 5-3

Key players: At 233 pounds, Curtis Painter is the biggest QB in the Big Ten. He nearly threw for 4,000 yards last season. He threw 19 picks, too. OG Jordan Grimes is a two-year starter. Dorien Bryant may be the best receiver in the league and will be a high draft pick.

Bottom line: Easily the most experienced team in the conference. Another mediocre season, and Tiller will be the first Big Ten coach out of work. With Notre Dame and Ohio State in back-to-back weeks at home, the Boilermakers can get momentum with wins.

Porter’s projection: Tiller always seems to get his team to a bowl game, but that’s part of the problem. He could become a victim of his own success. The Boilermakers get welcomed to reality after facing Toledo, Eastern Illinois and Central Michigan the first three weeks. Then they get Notre Dame, Ohio State, Michigan and Iowa. Another five- or six-loss season should put them in the middle of the pack again. Sixth.

Wisconsin Badgers

Coach: Bret Bielema, second season, 12-1

2006 12-1, 7-1

Key players: A new QB doesn’t have to do much other than not screw it up. Tyler Donovan will get the first crack. RB P.J. Hill is a workhorse. He ran for 1,569 yards and scored 15 TDs in 2006. Luke Swan is faster than people think and along with fellow WR Paul Hubbard, they scored 10 TDs.

Bottom line: If the Badgers aren’t 6-0 rolling into Happy Valley in the
middle of October, then something has gone drastically wrong. Bielema is the toast of Madison now. Underachieve this season, and he’ll find out what it’s really like to be a head coach at a major school with expectations. The Badgers have more talent than people realize.
Porter’s projection It’s no longer the Big Two. Wisconsin’s program is
every bit as strong as Ohio State and Michigan. CB Jack Ikegwuonu is
impossible to throw on. Three starters return on the defensive line. Get the point? The schedule is tougher than most with games at Illinois, Ohio State and Penn State. But Michigan, which could determine the Big Ten title, is at home. No worse than third.

Ohio State Buckeyes

Coach: Jim Tressel, seventh season, 62-14

2006 12-1, 8-0

Key players: RB Beanie Wells has to become the star Ohio State thinks he can be. Much of the offense will fall on his broad shoulders. TE Rory Nicol will be a bigger part of the offense as new QBs settle in. LB James Laurinaitis is one of the best players in the country and won the Nagurski Award last season. FS Anderson Russell is a stud. RT Kirk Barton (Perry) is looking to finish his career strong.

Bottom line: The Buckeyes will feel the talent lost from last year. If QB
Todd Boeckman clamps down the position early, and musical QBs doesn’t become the theme music, OSU could contend for a championship. But Wisconsin and Michigan are two of the last three opponents.

Porter’s projection: Too much is missing from last season’s unbeaten
conference team, but the Buckeyes are still the two-time defending Big Ten champs. If WRs Brian Hartline and Brian Robiskie can replace last year’s production, the offense will be better than most think. Look for freshman RB Brandon Saine to become a playmaker. Having Wisconsin at home helps for a second-place finish. Lose that game, it’s third.

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