tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post8575136146280108749..comments2015-02-28T06:03:22.596-05:00Comments on Frontloading HQ: So, Who's Going to Win This Race? The Forecasts are Starting to Come InJosh Putnamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06301836432446874997noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-46417873781642630002008-08-03T13:10:00.000-04:002008-08-03T13:10:00.000-04:00Here's that link from Rob.<A HREF="http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/08/02/obama-mccain-camp-cynical-not-racist/" REL="nofollow">Here's that link from Rob</A>.Josh Putnamhttp://frontloading.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-57028369462612305622008-08-02T19:15:00.000-04:002008-08-02T19:15:00.000-04:00Tried to play the game but when I attempt to begin...Tried to play the game but when I attempt to begin a simulation, three numbers show up on the screen, and apparently there's supposed to be some question that comes up that you need the manual to answer.Jackhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04365194237710177589noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-42642713191913138302008-08-02T18:13:00.000-04:002008-08-02T18:13:00.000-04:00Do you remember the old computer game President El...Do you remember the old computer game <A HREF="http://www.the-underdogs.info/game.php?id=839" REL="nofollow">President Elect</A>? It was a remarkable simulation for getting across the interaction between the economy, incumbency, political views, the candidate's abilities, and shrewd campaigning. Random gaffes and debate results were included too. If the macro factors were too far against you, SarahLawrenceScotthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14690577323454357276noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-55372373521181873922008-08-02T17:09:00.000-04:002008-08-02T17:09:00.000-04:00Did you seehttp://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/20...Did you see<BR/><BR/>http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com<BR/>/2008/08/02/obama-mccain-camp-cynical<BR/>-not-racist/<BR/><BR/>There was a comment from Obama saying "They're very good at negative campaigning. They're not so good at governing."<BR/><BR/>I think we have heard that before, and I think it will be heard again. I think if the Republicans keep up the complaining about Obama playing the Roberthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03379192575044761972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-51464283877428613282008-08-02T16:58:00.000-04:002008-08-02T16:58:00.000-04:00Again, as Paul has said, most of these models assu...Again, as Paul has said, most of these models assume that the campaign doesn't matter. I still have problem with that concept. I heard Charles Cook on NPR this morning indicating that he thinks it will be an extremely close election that is impossible to call at this point.Roberthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03379192575044761972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-49825693432687641632008-08-02T16:02:00.000-04:002008-08-02T16:02:00.000-04:00Thanks for including 538's results, Glenn. I thou...Thanks for including 538's results, Glenn. I thought about including it and then forgot. Not much of an excuse. <A HREF="http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/06/we-know-more-than-we-think-big-change-2.html" REL="nofollow">Nate has actually been advised by Erikson (a family friend apparently) on some of his methodology</A>.<BR/><BR/>FiveThirtyEight is cited often enough around here, but for Josh Putnamhttp://frontloading.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-36161644734701428492008-08-02T15:23:00.000-04:002008-08-02T15:23:00.000-04:00fivethirtyeight.com currently predicts Obama getti...fivethirtyeight.com currently predicts Obama getting 49.7% of the vote, and McCain getting 47% of the vote.<BR/><BR/>(I believe it gets this data through averaging the results of 10,000 test simulations)<BR/><BR/>It gives Obama an average of 303.7 electoral votes, with McCain having an average of 234.3 electoral votes.<BR/><BR/>It predicts that Obama has a 67.7% chance of winning.Glenn Russellnoreply@blogger.com