Brexit Brief: U.K. Prime Minister gears up for second crunch vote

LucyMcNulty

British Prime Minister Theresa May is gearing up to return to Brussels and demand last-minute changes to her divisive Brexit deal.

May is reported to be ready to back a U.K. parliamentary amendment to her preferred form of Brexit that would require its most contentious terms to be renegotiated.

The amendment, proposed by influential Conservative lawmaker Sir Graham Brady, calls for the U.K and E.U to find “alternative arrangements” to avoid reinstating a hard border in Ireland.

British politicians will vote on the amendment in a second parliamentary ballot on the terms of Britain’s exit from the European Union on Tuesday night. They could also back efforts to delay or even cancel Brexit.

Sterling lost some of last week’s gains in early day trading on January 28, amid the continued uncertainty. It dropped from $1.31949 at 6:20 GMT to trade at $1.31674 at 8:30 U.K. time.

Negotiators in the U.K. and EU agreed the terms of their divorce in November, almost 2½ years after the British public voted to leave.

But an overwhelming majority of British politicians rejected that accord on January 15. Now, with only 60 days until the UK’s two-year notification period to leave the EU expires on March 29, time is running out for May to break the Brexit deadlock.

So far, May’s plans for a Plan B have been criticized as too close to her plan A to be considered viable alternatives.

What happens next?

U.K. politicians are tabling amendments to May’s revised proposals. They will be allowed to debate and vote on these on January 29.

This is also when pro-European politicians could hijack the Brexit process. A group of MPs will seek parliamentary approval to amend the government’s business plan for the day to prioritize debate on their Brexit proposals, rather than May’s — a daring upending of parliamentary procedure. If a majority of politicians approve that move, they will then have an opportunity to vote on a bill proposed by Conservative Europhile Nick Boles, mandating an extension to Article 50 if parliament cannot agree a way forward. This would make it legally impossible to force the U.K. out of the EU without a deal.

Once votes have been cast on Boles’ bill, politicians will debate and vote on any other amendments to May’s revised proposals — as well as the proposals themselves.

EU leaders, meanwhile, have insisted that the deal agreed in November is the only one on offer and won’t be changed.

Are there any alternatives to May’s deal?

Several British politicians argue that the U.K. should push for some form of membership of the European Economic Area. This is sometimes called the ‘Norway-plus’ option, referencing the EEA’s largest member. Norway and the other EEA countries can access the European single market without being full members; the ‘plus’ part would also keep the U.K. in the customs union in the hopes of preventing a hard border in Ireland.

Staying in the single market is an attractive prospect to U.S. businesses in London. The model also has significant support in parliament and in the EU. But it is reviled by prominent Brexit-backing lawmakers, as well as influential City regulators and UK-focused financial institutions, who all warn that it would leave the U.K. overly exposed to European rules without a say in their making.

What about a second referendum?

May is adamant that the public has already had its say. However, an amendment proposing such a vote could be tabled on January 29, giving Europhile MPs an opportunity to voice their support for it for the first time.

EU officials have suggested they could allow a short extension to the UK’s two-year exit period, for a referendum. But it remains unclear what question would be put to voters, or even whether enough politicians would support the move.

Opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party last week tabled an amendment to May’s deal proposing British parliamentarians be given an opportunity to decide if they would like another vote on the UK’s membership of the EU.

Will May survive?

Insiders expect Labour MPs will instead trigger another vote of no confidence in May’s government, if they think they have a chance of winning. One politico said: “The moment of maximum danger for her is when she comes out with her next plan, having had talks, having seen what the house thinks, and deciding, ‘Right, this what I am going to go for.’”

If a majority of MPs were to support a second no-confidence motion, parliament would have 14 days to form a new government before an election is called. May could also opt to trigger a snap election. Either way, a poll is a distinct possibility.

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