411’s TV Renewal Predictions: The Gifted Has Stabilized, But Seal Team Hasn’t

Welcome to 411’s official renewal predictions for the 2017 – 2018 television season! I’m Jeremy Thomas and after last season’s late-era run, we’re back to keep predictions going from fall going forward. The fall season is now in full launch this past week and we’re going to take a weekly look at what’s likely to get renewed as well as what you’re not very likely to see come back next year.

This is going to be a pretty short and sweet column each week. I’ll be updating my predictions every Sunday if there’s anything that warrants a move.

How It Works

The categories are pretty self-explanatory: Renewed, Likely Renewal, Bubble (could go either way), Likely Cancellation and Cancelled. It is worth mentioning that some shows will be moved into “Cancelled” status before an official announcement; networks are generally loathe to announce cancellations but there are clear signs when a show has been cancelled. These include a lack of additional episodes ordered for a first season, main cast members joining other shows or pilots and statements made by members of the cast or crew.

A show’s rating in the 18 – 49 demographic generally determines renewal, as that is the demographic that advertisers pay for (and thus determines the show’s profit margin). The 18 – 49 demo rating will be included after the show in the list. However, it’s not as simple as “X show has a higher rating than Y show, so it will be renewed.” There are certain expectations regarding a show’s timeslot; a 10 PM show can easily survive with a lower rating than a 9 PM show. Fridays tend to have lower ratings expectations and a show that is produced by the network’s production company is more likely to be renewed than one that the network has no stake in. International and streaming distributions can influence some shows to survive, but that is by no means a saving grace.

This Week’s Highlights

Things continue to wind down a bit for the winter, and shows are settling into their grooves. There’s still movement to be had, and some notable news besides that as some shows debuted and another concluded what is likely to be the end of its series run.

That show is Law & Order: True Crime which closed out its first season at a not-so-great 0.94 for the finale. True Crime has been an underperformer throughout its run, having hoped to cash in on a rise of interest in real-life crime stories a laThe People vs. OJ Simpson: American Crime Story. Dick Wolf doesn’t have the cachet of Ryan Murphy these days though, and there’s not a ton of interest in the Menendez Brothers these days. The show ends its run at a 1.05 average, which would be tolerable for a third-season or even second-season show but for a freshman, that’s not good. That leaves it in Likely Canceled. That’s not a sure thing, because fellow freshman The Brave will almost certainly end up averaging a lower overall rating and midseason shows could bomb. But at the current NBC landscape, it’s hard to see the show return.

There’s not much more to report for NBC. Blindspot suffered its first week-to-week drop of the season with a single tick down to a 0.6. That sounds bad, and that’s because it is bad. But it’s also a show in its third season with syndication peaking once it gets a twenty-two episode fourth go, so it’s still looking pretty safe. (Blindspot also reportedly does well internationally.) Everything else is holding steady, with The Blacklist having kept quiute stable through its fall run. It’s notable though that the show always takes a drop when it comes back in the winter, so we’ll have to see if it continues that trend.

The other network that saw some movement was CBS, where 9JKL finally dropped into Likely Canceled. The sitcom has been hovering just above the safe line for a while but last week’s ratings droped it into the danger zone. SWAT is still on the Bubble, but it’s on the verge of falling out due to a big drop in week three to a 0.9. The show is likely to fall further but that’s not guaranteed, so we’ll see how it performs from here. I wouldn’t get too comfortable though.

Conversely, Seal Team had a nice bounce back after a scary drop last week. While I’m not ready to move it up because I want to see how much it gives back this week, that helps solidify it at Bubble or higher. And NCIS: New Orleans is now tied with its sister show NCIS: Los Angeles for the first time since I can remember. CBS loves that franchise and this suggests a probably return for both shows, as well as the mother series. The same can’t necessarily be said about Man With a Plan, which returned for its second season at a low 1.0. That’s almost a series low, and further drops will doom it. For now, it’s on the Bubble.

Things stayed quiet at FOX, although The Gifted fans will be happy to know that the show appears thoroughly stable now. The show has two straight 1.0 weeks and has hit that mark three out of the last four episodes. it continues to hold around the point, it will be fine. I’m holding off Likely Renewed until it gets a full season or other information comes in, though. Lethal Weapon is holding at the same spot and that’s good; while it’s no longer the hit it was in season one, it’s not in bad shape. Gotham is the very definition of “nothing new to report,” as it’s stayed within 0.04 since episode two of this season.

The final two networks have nothing going right now. ABC is done with Inhumans, likely permanently, and Once Upon a Time is settled in at regular 0.5 ratings which is a cancel point. Designated Survivor looks solid but not great; the only two dramas currently save are Grey’s Anatomy and The Good Doctor. That creates an open field for the rest of the dramas, with all eyes on Agents of SHIELD’s debut next week on Fridays to see if it shakes things up.

And at The CW, all is the same. Valor is completely done and Dynasty is not making a great case, but it’s holding just above water right now by matching Jane the Virgin and Crazy Ex-Girlfriend’s numbers. Everything else is gravy and sure to come back.