We are heading back to the 1950s in our climate and weather. With a positive AMO (last month +0.90 STD) and a negative PDO (last month -1.26 STD), we are most like the early to middle 1950s and late 1950s to early 1960s. Notice how we were in this mode after the super El Nino of 1998 for several years before the strong El Nino fo 2002/03 and the strong second solar max reverted us back to a positive PDO. After 2007, the PDO has settled into the cold Pacific and warm Atlantic mode.

Some believe the warm Atlantic mode actually began in the late 1980s which may have helped Hugo in 1989 before Pinatubo and Cerro Hudson in 1991 like El Chichon in 1982 may have cooled the Atlantic like it cooled the globe. The Atlantic returned warm in 1995. Dr Bill Gray has shown the warm AMO favors more Atlantic Basin storms and increased landfalls. East coast landfalls are more likely when the Pacific is cold (Irene last year). Weatherbell’s Joe Bastardi predicted overall activity would be down this year though above the normal with slightly cooler tropics and El Nino but that storms would tend to develop close to the mainland (as 3 of the first 4 did). We also believe the east coast is again vulnerable as it was in the 1950s.

El Chichon 1982 above and Pinatubo 1991 below

Note how much blockage of solar radiation occurred at Mauna Loa from these major eruptions. That cooled the land and the oceans (most notably the Atlantic). The volcano enhanced El Ninos (weakened Hadley circulation and weakened easterlies allowing warm water from the western tropical Pacific to come east) kept the PDO positive.

You can see how the La Ninas are favored in the cold modes and El Ninos in the warm mode. This is annual NINO34. We usually see ENSO peak in the October to February time frame. See how after the 2002 El Nino and second solar max, the PDO popped positive then gradually faded in the first graph above and how NINO34 behavior followed suit.

We were more zonal than normal a decade or so ago and this helped make AO+ and produce less extremes by producing more variability. Now we are heading down into very meridional territory like the 1950s and 1960s and 1970s when extremes were common, when major troughs and ridges dominated and tended to persist produce great extremes.

(6) ENSO state frequency (60 years)

Here as shown we are back in a La Nina favored mode due to -PDO. We get more frequent, often multi-year La Ninas and briefer El Ninos.

(7) Thermohaline circulation (60 years)

We are in a strong phase favoring +AMO.

(8) ITCZ strength and location (60 years)

(9) Length of Day (LOD) which may influence climate and FAO reports correlates well with fish catches. Ties well with ACI in 5 above

What is behind a 60 cycle? You probably would not be surprised it is the sun/solar system.

Scafetta shows the following figures described as: ([A- (top)) Rescaled SCMSS 60 year cycle (black curve) against the global surface temperature record (grey) detrended of its quadratic fit; (B- (botttom)) Eight year moving average of the global temperature detrended of its quadratic fit and plotted against itself shifted by 61.5 years. Note the perfect correspondence between the 1880-1940 and 1940-2000 periods. Also a smaller cycle, whose peaks are indicated by the letter “Y”, is clearly visible in the two records. This smaller cycle is mostly related to the 30-year modulation of the temperature. These results reveal the natural origin of a large 60-year modulation in the temperature records.” (SCMSS – Speed of the CMSS)

This year yields will drop dramatically for the third straight year, this yyear with tens of billions of dollars in crop losses likely. In 1988, the last major drought, losses were over $80B (2008S). Yields can be reduced by droughts and as in 1993 by massive floods). This ties into the ACI above. When the patterns are very meridional they are subject to persistence and extremes. That was the reason for the 1910s, 1930s and 1950s droughts. and the 1988 drought. See much more on similarities to 1988 and 1911 in posts on Weatherbell.com this week.

We are told, natural variability has been ruled out. It seems to me they never seriously looked. These are the same folks (including Mann and Schmidt) who this week admitted they didn’t the difference between a derecho and the Geico gecko.