Kiev protests: Dangers ahead for Ukraine

Ukraine protests, which have gone on ever since Mr Yanukovych's U-turn two
months ago on a trade deal with Europe, do not seem likely to fizzle out

For successive Ukrainiangovernments, it has long been a standard strategy to prosecute, jail and occasionally poison political opponents. Human rights groups will complain, the European Union will tut, but the chances of getting hit with sanctions are unlikely, and besides, Vladimir Putin in Moscow is always there for backup.

As President Viktor Yanukovych may be about to find out, though, there is just one problem with treating one’s rivals this way: it means they aren't there just when you really need them most.

With huge anti-government demonstrations in the capital, Kiev, now escalating into open street warfare, the best option for Mr Yanukovych to restore calm now have been to reach out to the leaders of the mainstream opposition. Cue a transitional government of national unity, and a little breathing space ahead of the next scheduled elections in February 2015.

Unfortunately, the mainstream opposition is itself in disarray, not least because its best-known leader, Yulia Tymoshenko, the blonde-haired face of the 2004 Orange Revolution, is currently serving a seven-year jail sentence on corruption charges. So instead of credible leaders to talk to, Mr Yanukovych has only angry crowds, few of whom so far seem intimidated by last week’s draconian new laws forbidding nearly all forms of legitimate protest.

"It is a very volatile situation," says James Sherr, of the London-based foreign policy think tank, Chatham House. "Unlike the Orange Revolution of 2004, there is an absence of any effective and coherent opposition. The government has no one but a mob to negotiate with, although this is a situation they have created themselves."

In fairness, the opposition has done little to distinguish itself since the heady days of the Orange Revolution, when demonstrations in Kiev helped Ms Tymoshenko overturn a rigged vote in favour of Mr Yanukovych’s pro-Kremlin regime. At that time, both she and her partner-in-people-power, Viktor Yushchenko, whose was face was hideously pockmarked from a poisoning attempt, adorned the covers of Elle and Time magazines respectively. But true to democracy's mischievous way, people who were icons of virtue in opposition proved less effective in government, squabbling endlessly and allowing Mr Yanukovych to win again fair and square in 2010.

Mr Yanokovych (GETTY IMAGES)

So what happens now? In a sense, Mr Yanukovych's options are limited. Having introduced legislation that carries a five year penalty for the crime of demonstrating outside a public building, he has invited a do-or-die mentality among the protesters. This morning three of them were been shot dead. The question now is whose nerve holds out longest. If Mr Yanukovych backs down he may lose credibility. If he continues to deploy live rounds, he will give Europe and America the excuse they need to impose sanctions, most likely targeted at him and other close associates.

But while his security forces may be able to clear a snowy square in downtown Kiev, it is doubtful whether they will be able to stamp out protest across the whole country. For the Russia vs Europe split in Ukraine is not just about whether the country wants a Kremlin-style government or a European one: it is also about language and nationality. While pro-Kremlin sentiment is strong in the Russian-speaking east, it is much less so in the west, where Ukrainian nationalism is predominant and memories of the Soviet Union bitter.

Here, Mr Yanukovych could well find town and city halls unwilling to disperse crowds of protesters outside their buildings: indeed, they might even encourage them. Local police and army units might also defect from government control, a scenario that Mr Yanukovych already seems to be worried about, having dismissed the commander of the Ukrainian ground forces four days ago amid doubts about his loyalty. Russia could theoretically send in troops to back him up, but that would only happen as an absolute last resort, given the likelihood that it would simply make things worse.

"Mr Yanukovych could well lose authority in western Ukraine and even in Kiev itself," said Andrew Wilson, of the European Council on Foreign Relations. "It's really not clear if he can put these new laws into practice, and clearly the opposition will be contesting it – already some people are also talking about non-peaceful forms of resistance."

Already such resistance has included targeting regime figures' homes, and flying drones over ministers' houses to show how they live in the lap of luxury, as well as petty acts of sabotage. How much it escalates is open to question, although Mr Yanukovych's habit of deploying plain clothes thugs as agents provocateurs is unlikely to help.

But either way, the protests, which have gone on ever since Mr Yanukovych's U-turn two months ago on a trade deal with Europe, do not seem likely to fizzle out. For despite his apparent preference for forging closer links with the more authoritarian regime in Russia, the one lasting legacy of the Orange Revolution, is that Ukrainians now view free speech and protest as a right. Whatever the opposition’s other shortcomings, attempts to take that away seem doomed to failure.