Collectively, the three cities bidding to host the 2020 Summer Games—Madrid, Tokyo and Istanbul—have been rejected by the International Olympic Committee seven times over the past 20 years. And that's the good news.

The 2020 Olympic Finalist Cities

Three cities competing to light the Olympic torch in seven years arrive with substantial baggage at the final vote Saturday.

Madrid is the capital of a country with a broken economy. In June, Istanbul was the site of violent protests over development that left four people dead and thousands injured. Tokyo is still recovering from the aftereffects of the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster—and the city is a mere hop across the Sea of Japan from South Korea, the host nation for the 2018 Winter Games.

When the IOC votes on the 2020 Olympic host on Saturday, it will confront something of a devil's choice. In any other year, the three aforementioned cities likely wouldn't stand a chance of landing the biggest event in sports. Eight years ago, amid a world-wide economic boom, the bidding for the 2012 Games included Paris, Moscow, New York and victorious London. But the U.S. didn't submit a bid this time because of a dispute with the IOC over revenues that wasn't solved until last year, and a teetering economy discouraged other international capitals, such as Rome, from entering the fray.

ENLARGE

From left, Madrid, Tokyo and Istanbul, the three candidates vying to host the 2020 Summer Games.
Getty Images

Thus, three cities with substantial baggage are poised to light the Olympic torch in seven years, and few are willing to predict the outcome.

"Anyone who tells you who is going to win would be unwise," said Chris Renner, chief executive of Helios Partners, the international sports consulting firm that helped Russia capture the 2018 World Cup. "There is always a final card that gets played in these races."

For what it's worth, Oddschecker, a U.K.-based odds comparison site, has Tokyo, host of the 1964 Games, the runaway favorite, with odds of 4-6. Istanbul, which would stage the first Games in a Muslim country, comes next at 15-4. Madrid, bidding for a third straight time, is the longest shot at 9-2.

Based on recent history, though, Istanbul may be in the pole position.

The IOC lately has been awarding the Games to cities, countries, even continents, where they have never been before. Narrative counts for a lot with the IOC, often more than confidence that the locals can pull off the gargantuan task of putting on the Games. Witness the choices of Sochi 2014, Rio 2016 and Peongchang 2018, when safer alternatives existed. "The IOC has a balancing act to fulfill their mission of spreading the Olympic idea around the world, to push into new territories without ignoring their history and heartland," said Michael Payne, the IOC's former chief marketing officer. "Istanbul is the new territory and a new culture. It's the only one of the cities offering something new."

Perhaps no other city embodies the Olympic message of connecting people through sport like Istanbul, the capital of a secular democracy in a predominantly Muslim country that sits on the border of Europe and Asia. Organizers plan to hold events in both continents, with the marathon starting in Asia and finishing in Europe.

"It's a full, creative combination of east and west, Asia and Europe," Hasan Arat, the bid chairman, said in a recent interview. "We're bridging continents, nationalities, religions and cultures."

The downside is that Istanbul is the least prepared of the three cities. It will have to spend more than $19 billion to build the infrastructure for its Olympic plan, though leaders say 90% of the funding will go to civic projects that will be built regardless of whether the city gets the Games.

On the other hand, Madrid has the infrastructure to host an Olympics next year if the city had to. Theresa Zabell, chief executive of international relations of Madrid2020 and a 1992 gold medalist in sailing, said the city's bid is much improved from four and eight years ago. Like London, it now uses iconic landmarks for events, including basketball games at the famed Plaza de las Ventas bullfighting ring. "Our story is about sports," Zabell said. "It's not about politics or any other kind of story. It's a compact bid with the best venues and the best plan."

The bid also has tried to sell itself as the biggest potential party. At a recent international sports convention, exhibits for Istanbul and Tokyo showed off maps and models. Madrid offered Serrano ham and glasses of rioja.

A vote for Madrid, though, is a vote for a country where the projected unemployment rate in seven years is unlikely to be much below 20%. A significant current of skepticism exists in Spain. Some see vying for the Games as a ploy by politicians to spend on the types of white-elephant projects they undertook during the real estate bubble. Guillermo López, a university professor from Valencia, fears undertaking the Games now sends a message that Spain is irresponsible. "If you're cutting spending all over the place because you're out of money, how can you afford the Games?" he said.

Madrid Mayor Ana Botella rejected such pessimism. "The economy could change two times in the next seven years," she said.

Once seen universally as surefire boons to local economies, the biggest sporting events are gaining reputations as expensive indulgences that governments shouldn't waste money on. The Confederations Cup soccer tournament in Brazil in June took place amid widespread protests. Voters in Oslo, a winter-sports hub, are poised to vote down spending money to support a bid for the 2022 Winter Games.

As Istanbul and Madrid try to establish their viability, Tokyo has presented itself as the risk-free choice and a nod toward history. Its proposed stadium will be on the same site as the 1964 venue.

"We are a safe pair of hands," said Masato Mizuno, chief executive of the Tokyo bid committee. "These are the hands that can be used to lead to show a super Games in uncertain times."

In response to such thinly veiled attacks on the competition, supporters of the other bids have raised questions about radiation fallout from Fukushima. Marisol Casado, president of the International Triathlon Union and a Spanish member of the IOC, told the Spanish newspaper El País this week there are fears about the nuclear plant.

"I think they won't have time to recover," Casado said. "It's clear that the people on the IOC have it in mind."

Tokyo Governor Naoki Inose has insisted radiation levels in Tokyo were on par with other major cities such as London, Paris and New York.

Still, the Tokyo bid hasn't gained the sort of overwhelming local support the IOC prefers in the months leading up to the vote. IOC polls in the spring found support for the Games at 70% in Tokyo, compared with 76% in Madrid and 83% in Istanbul. Tokyo bid organizers claim their support now stands at 92% and has the momentum.

"'Discover Tomorrow,' is the key slogan," Mizuno said. "These are short words with deep meaning."

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