Economic Affairs: Year In Review 2005

In 2005 rising U.S. deficits, tight monetary policies, and higher oil prices triggered by hurricane damage in the Gulf of Mexico were moderating influences on the world economy and on U.S. stock markets, but some other countries had a robust year, the U.S. dollar strengthened, and oil companies reported record profits.

Economic Affairs , In 2005 the world economy expanded by 4.3%, in contrast to the 30-year high of 5.1% in 2004. Several factors contributed to the more moderate growth that affected nearly all regions (notable exceptions were India and Japan). Higher oil and other commodity prices, which had begun causing capacity constraints at the end of 2004, were reducing incomes of importers. In the U.S., monetary policy was tighter. Other developed countries’ macroeconomic policies were also less accommodative, and the booming housing markets of 2004 were becoming more subdued. Against this, at least for the time being, inflation and interest rates remained low, however, and a global slowdown in manufacturing output was offset by the strengthening services sector. (For Real Gross Domestic Products of Selected OECD Countries, seeTable; for Changes in Output in Less-Developed Countries, seeTable.)

The global economy continued to be led by the U.S. and China. Higher oil prices, short-term interest rates that were still low but rising, and the exceptionally disruptive hurricane season slowed expansion in the U.S. to 2.5% (3.3% in 2004). Insurance brokers estimated that Hurricanes Katrina, Rita, and Wilma could cost global insurance and reinsurance sectors up to $80 billion. Although past experience of natural disasters suggested that the hurricanes would not have an impact on overall U.S. growth in the longer term, in the short term a major cost resulted from the shutdown of oil-refinery capacity that accounted for 13% of national capacity. In China economic momentum moderated only slightly, and the country’s importance as a global player became increasingly evident. In July, in recognition of this development, the outgoing secretary-general of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development stated that China should be admitted as a member.

The slowdown in global growth, intense competition in many industries, and higher oil and commodity prices provided a stimulus for foreign direct investment (FDI) as major firms sought to improve their competitive positions. More than 100 countries introduced new regulations to improve their investment appeal. Total inflow of FDI was up 2% in 2004 to $648 billion, bringing the total stock to an estimated $9 trillion. Less-developed countries (LDCs) were the main beneficiaries, and after three years of declining flows, FDI in 2004 rebounded to rise 40%, giving the LDCs a record 36% share of the total. All less-developed regions had increased inflows, led by China, which accounted for a quarter of the total. LDCs offered new growth markets in which companies could boost their sales and gave access to rich supplies of natural resources when demand for oil and other commodities was forcing up prices.

National Economic Policies

The International Monetary Fund projected a 2.5% rise in the GDP of the developed economies, compared with a 3.1% rise in 2004.

United States

In the first half of the year, the U.S. economy grew 3.6% year-on-year. Events in the third quarter temporarily dislocated output and dented U.S. and international confidence, but GDP was likely to exceed the IMF’s projected expansion of 3.5% (4.3% in 2004). The economy quickly moved back on course, and third-quarter output rose much faster than expected, at an annual rate of 4.3%. The immediate effect of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita was the loss of oil, natural gas, and petroleum-products processing in New Orleans and the Gulf of Mexico, which resulted in a short-term extreme escalation of energy prices. The area represented only 2% of total U.S. GDP, but it accounted for a much larger share of oil and oil-derivatives activities. The hurricanes, together with a strike at aircraft manufacturer Boeing, caused industrial output and employment to fall in September, but there was a recovery in October when industrial output rose a modest 1.9% above year-earlier levels.

The buoyancy in the economy was due to strong consumer demand. This was partly fueled by the strength of the housing market, where the median established-home price rose by 14.4% in the year-to-August. At the same time, the rate of unemployment fell steadily and at 5% in October was below the year-earlier level (5.5%). (For Standardized Unemployment Rates in Selected Developed Countries, seeTable.) Fears that consumer confidence would be dented by high energy prices proved unfounded. Retail sales (excluding autos) rose 10.3% year-on-year in October.

Standardized Unemployment Rates in Selected Developed Countries % of total labour force

Headline inflation, which included food and energy, rose fast relative to rates over the previous decade, reflecting the higher oil prices. In October consumer prices rose 4.3%, compared with 3.2% a year earlier. The underlying rate (excluding food and energy) was well contained and slowed to 1.7% in the first half of the year but began rising toward the end of the year, which was attributed to the tighter labour market and higher unit-labour costs.

Given a continuing decline in the national savings rate and a growing current-account deficit, public finances continued to be a cause of domestic and international concern. At 2.6% of GDP, the federal deficit for fiscal 2005 was lower than expected. Corporate income taxes and other revenue increases offset increased military expenditure.

United Kingdom

The rate of economic growth slowed much more than expected in 2005, and the U.K.’s GDP was likely to fall slightly short of the IMF-projected 1.9% increase. This was in stark contrast to the 3.2% consumer-led growth in 2004. The 1.5% growth in output early in the year was the lowest in a decade. A modest improvement in the second quarter brought the annual rise to 1.7%. The slowdown was due to sluggish private consumption, which declined to 1.8% from 3.6% in 2004. Higher interest rates, which were subsequently lowered in August, contributed to the slowdown, as did the rapid cooling of the housing market. The rise in house prices peaked at 15.2% in August 2004, and in September 2005 the annual increase of 3.2% represented a nine-year low. At the same time, the rise in fuel prices contributed to the two-percentage-point decline in real income in the year to the second quarter.

Despite the slowdown, the rate of inflation increased. Year-on-year the September consumer price index rose 2.5% before falling back in October to 2.3%. The rise in oil prices added 0.7 percentage point to the September index, compared with 0.25 percentage point a year earlier. Import prices for consumer goods also rose, which was surprising given that U.K. companies were increasingly outsourcing to countries such as China that had lower labour costs.

Labour-market trends were more positive in the U.K. The 4.7% unemployment rate in September was unchanged over the same year-earlier period. Tight labour conditions were eased by the substantial net inflow of immigrants attracted to the U.K. by the abundance of jobs. There were an estimated 75,000 potential workers from countries that had joined the EU in 2004 who were eligible to join the U.K. workforce. The increase in the labour supply also eased pressure on the average wage, which rose 4.1%. Public-sector wages were rising much faster (5.6% annually) than those in the private sector (3.8%), with take-home pay some 13% higher for public-sector workers than that of their private-sector counterparts.

Japan

Expansion over the year looked set to exceed the 2% (2.7% in 2004) projected by the IMF, and business confidence in Japan was at its highest level in a decade. For the fourth straight quarter, output rose in the three months to September, exceeding expectations with an annualized increased of 1.7%. This was despite adverse factors that included cuts in public expenditure and the increased cost of imported oil. Japan moved away from its traditional export-led growth to private domestic demand. This was helped by increasing household incomes and a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.2% in September (compared with 4.6% a year earlier), which brought it to the lowest level since August 1998. For the first time in a decade, firms were increasing the number of full-time jobs and reducing the amount of part-time work.

Badly needed reforms were made in the banking sector, and bank lending increased for the first time since 1988. The sector had long underperformed because of the large number of bad loans being supported—they were estimated at $362 billion in 2002—but it was at last becoming more profitable. By March the major banks had exceeded government targets in reducing the share of nonperforming loans down to 2.9% from 8.4% in 2002.

Although deflation persisted, it was on a downward trend. The core inflation rate (excluding fresh food but not energy products) fell 0.1% in the third quarter. Land prices nationwide were falling more slowly, and in Tokyo they rose for the first time in 15 years.

Euro Zone

In 2005 Europe’s long-awaited economic recovery did not materialize, and the euro zone remained weak and vulnerable. The IMF revised downward its forecast rise for GDP to 1.2% (2% in 2004), and the zone once again lagged the performance of Japan, the U.K., and the U.S. Second-quarter output slowed to 0.3% (down from 0.5% in the first quarter). The economic malaise that this generated was exacerbated by political turmoil surrounding the rejection of the proposed EU constitution by voters in France and The Netherlands (seeWorld Affairs:European Union:Sidebar) and the failure of national governments at the June EU summit to agree on a budget. The EU institutions came under criticism, and for the 11th straight year the Court of Auditors refused to approve the EU’s own accounts because of waste and fraud in the €100 billion (about $118 billion) budget. In March the once-sacred Stability and Growth Pact, which set a 3% limit on the budget deficits of national governments, was amended to give governments more time to reduce excessive deficits. This made it more difficult to enforce discipline, and the pact lost credibility. Several major countries, including Germany, France, and Italy, exceeded the limits, and Hungary’s deficit was expected to reach nearly 7%.

Economic performance across the zone varied widely, and monetary management was difficult. Unemployment remained high at 8.6%, and labour reforms were long overdue in several countries, notably Germany, Spain, and France, where unemployment was nearly 10%. The future of the monetary union was questioned, and the European Central Bank (ECB) once again came under pressure to cut interest rates. Headline inflation, which included the cost of energy, remained above the ECB’s 2% ceiling and in September jumped to 2.6% owing to higher oil prices, though it dipped in October (2.5%) and November (2.4%). Core inflation was much lower, but the ECB moved to subdue prices and on December 1 raised interest rates for the first time since 2000, from 2% to 2.25%.

The Countries in Transition

Overall, the region, excluding the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), grew by 4.3%, which reflected a marked slowdown from 2004 (6.6%). The eight “emerging Europe” countries of Central and Eastern Europe (Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, and Slovenia) that became members of the EU in May 2004 continued to benefit from EU accession, but the pace of expansion eased following the initial high level of activity and investment boom in the run-up to EU membership. Among the top performers were Estonia (7%) and Slovakia (5%), which were establishing reputations for being business-friendly and were attracting strong investment interest.

The 12 transition counties of the CIS grew faster. Output in the seven low-income CIS countries (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan) accelerated to 8.9% (8.3% in 2004), led by an 18.7% increase in GDP in Azerbaijan, where oil production rose sharply. Output in the larger CIS countries (Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Belarus, and Turkmenistan) increased more slowly at 6% (8.4% in 2004). GDP growth in Russia slowed to 5.5% (7.2% in 2004), as the oil sector was hampered by a lack of investment and manufacturing was hurt by capacity constraints. While inflation rates in most of the EU transition countries declined, in the CIS countries inflationary pressures were increasing, largely because of high oil prices and, in some countries, excessive private consumption. (For Changes in Consumer Prices in Less-Developed Countries, seeTable.) In Russia social spending contributed to a 12.6% rise in consumer prices. Bribery and corruption were less of an obstacle to doing business in 2005, compared with 2002, according to a survey by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. Nevertheless, bribes were accepted as a business cost and still accounted for some 1% of annual revenues.

Changes in Consumer Prices in Less-Developed Countries % change from preceding year

Area

2001

2002

2003

2004

20051

All less-developed countries

6.7

5.9

6.0

5.8

5.9*

Regional groups

Africa

12.2

9.6

10.4

7.8

8.2*

Asia

2.7

2.1

2.6

4.2

4.2*

Middle East

5.4

6.5

7.1

8.4

10.0*

Western Hemisphere

6.1

8.9

10.6

6.5

6.3*

1Projected.

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook,. September 2005.

Less-Developed Countries

The IMF projected a deceleration in LDC output from 7.3% in 2004 to a still-robust 6.4%, and all regions grew more slowly. China and India again boosted overall LDC expansion. Regional disparities were not as wide as in many previous years. On a per capita basis, the lowest growth was in Africa (2.4%).

Output in Africa slowed to 4.5% from a higher-than-expected 5.3% in 2004. The resource-rich countries boosted growth in sub-Saharan Africa (4.8%). The GDP of South Africa, the region’s largest economy, increased 4.3%, with higher metal prices helping to offset increased oil prices and rising unit-labour costs. Unemployment remained a problem. Zimbabwe continued to deteriorate, with output down 7.1% and consumer prices up 200%. Output in Seychelles also fell, for the third straight year, by 2.8%. The Angolan economy expanded strongly for the second straight year, at 14.7%. GDP in Nigeria, the region’s second largest economy, slowed to around 4% (6% in 2004) as oil output was constrained by capacity constraints, but the non-oil sector was buoyant and at risk of overheating. The CFA franc zone lagged, with output falling to 3.3%.

In Asia GDP was forecast to increase 7.3%, led by China (9%) and India (7.1%), but growth was mixed across the region. Pakistan grew by 7.4%, its fastest pace in two decades, as past macroeconomic reforms began to bear fruit. In Indonesia GDP expanded 5.8%, while the inflation rate reached a six-year high of 17.9% in October as fuel prices rose in response to government cuts in subsidies. Poor harvests and higher oil prices were detrimental in the Philippines, where growth slowed from 6% in 2004 to 4.7%, and in Thailand, where it declined from 6.1% to 3.5%. The newly industrializing Asian economies (Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan) grew by 4%, led by Hong Kong, where GDP rose 6.3%. Higher oil prices and slower growth in information technology exports adversely affected South Korea (3.8%) and Taiwan (3.4%). Singapore expanded 3.9% and earned the distinction of overtaking the U.S. as the world’s most successful economy in exploiting new information and communications technology.

With high oil prices hurting economies across Asia in 2005, environmentalists campaign in South …

AP

The better-than-expected recovery in Latin America in 2004 continued at a more sustainable pace in 2005, with output forecast at 4.1% (5.6% in 2004). Argentina expanded by 7.5% (9% in 2004); Uruguay grew 6% (12.3% in 2004); and though Venezuela rose 7.8%, that was much lower than the 17.9% growth recorded in 2004. Weaker manufacturing output was offset by the strong demand for the region’s commodities, particularly coffee, copper, and oil, which accounted for 65% of the region’s exports. The low interest rates and improved risk profile of the region also helped to stimulate an 11% increase in investment. The region’s annual inflation rate fell to around 5% in September. Only Venezuela experienced high consumer price rises (16.6%), but the rate was declining with price controls and tighter monetary policy.

Despite continuing terrorism and insurgency in some countries in the Middle East, overall economic growth was estimated at 5.4%. Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, which constituted the Gulf Cooperation Council, generated nearly 40% of both oil imports and the world’s oil reserves. Continuing high oil revenues enabled double-digit public spending, much of it on infrastructure improvements. The strong demand for labour in these countries assisted the non-oil-producing countries in the region through higher remittances and intraregional travel flows. Nevertheless, growth in the oil-importing countries fell from 4.6% in 2004 to 4%, partly because of the removal of quotas under the Agreement on Textiles and Clothing.

International Trade and Payments

The volume of world trade in goods and services was expected to rise 7%, which would make 2005 the fourth year of strong recovery. The deceleration from the exceptional 10.3% expansion in 2004 largely reflected the slowdown in the industrialized countries.

Current-account balances in 2005 became a source of international debate and concern. The U.S. economy was being largely driven by the willingness of Americans to spend heavily on imported goods, while much of the world was building up dollar savings, providing support for the U.S. currency. This situation made the U.S. extremely vulnerable to externalities. The U.S. deficit continued to burgeon and was expected to exceed $760 billion. It was being counterbalanced, not only by the huge surpluses in Asia but also by the commodity-producing countries in the Middle East and Russia and, to some extent, by Latin America and Canada.

Overall, the current-account deficit of the developed countries rose from $314 billion to $451 billion, with the value of exports rising more slowly than imports. The trade deficit closely matched that on current account, increasing from $314 billion to $476 billion. Continuing the well-established trend, the U.S. current-account deficit—which at $760 billion was well above the 2004 figure ($668 billion) and was expected to rise further in 2006—exceeded the total surplus of the other developed countries. In Japan the surplus fell for the first time in four years, to $153 billion. The traditional deficits in the Anglo-Saxon countries continued, with a slight fall in the U.K. to $41 billion and Australia unchanged at $39 billion. In the euro zone, however, the surplus halved to $24 billion, despite a 20% surge in Germany’s surplus to $121 billion. Spain, Italy, and France saw their deficits rise. A 12% drop in the surplus of the newly industrialized Asian countries to $78 billion was accounted for by a decline in South Korea.

Most notable were the changes in the LDCs. For the sixth straight year, the overall surplus rose dramatically, from $228 billion in 2004 to a record $410 billion. Significantly, the Middle East surplus more than doubled to $218 billion as higher oil prices sent the region’s exports soaring to $543 billion ($388 billion in 2004). China accounted for a quarter of the surplus ($116 billion). Exports from LDCs in Asia rose by 21%, contributing to the $110 billion surplus. The surplus in Latin America rose slightly to $22 billion, and in Africa it was a record $12 billion, up from $600 million. Increased oil revenues produced a doubling of the surplus in Russia to $102 billion. Indebtedness of the LDCs rose in absolute terms by around 5% to almost $3.2 trillion. Measured as a share of exports of goods and services, it fell for the seventh straight year to 3.8%, compared with 4.2% in 2004 and 9.6% in 1998. The rate fell in all regions except in less-developed Asia, where it was unchanged at 2.4%.

Interest and Exchange Rates

For the early part of 2005, interest rates were benign and reflected the low-inflation environment. Low interest rates were particularly beneficial for the LDCs, which were able to reschedule debt and meet their financing commitments early. At the same time, the low rates contributed to much stronger economic growth, which in itself became inflationary through the act of raising commodity prices. These, in turn, had consequences for the industrialized countries, where inflationary pressures were building and creating uncertainty in central banks, which feared that the increased costs of fuel and other raw materials would feed into consumer prices and wages.

It was against this background that monetary policies were being tightened, and interest rates, rather than the nature of public and current accounts, had the most bearing on exchange rates. The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) raised interest rates in quarter-point hikes from 2.25% at the start of the year to 4.25% at year’s end. The Bank of England (BOE) cut interest rates for the first time in two years, by a quarter point to 4.5%. The ECB, prompted by signs of economic recovery in France and Germany, raised the interest rate to 2.25%, ending two years of inactivity. In Japan the zero-interest policy continued, but in much of Asia rates were rising modestly in the second half of the year. In Hong Kong monetary policy was kept in line with that of the U.S. Despite a modest rise, interest rates were declining in real terms in Asian LDCs.

In contrast to 2004, in 2005 the dollar demonstrated considerable strength and resilience. In the first half of the year, the U.S. dollar appreciated against its trading partners, and in July the dollar was up 3.5%. This was due partly to the rise in U.S. interest rates, which had created a wider differential with Europe and encouraged investors to hold dollar- rather than euro-denominated assets. From the end of July, the dollar was more volatile. In mid-October it was reported that the September consumer price increase of 1.2% was the biggest in 25 years, while core inflation was only 0.1%. This news dampened speculation concerning more interest-rate increases, and the dollar slid. Good economic news and higher interest rates caused it to recover, and on November 10 the dollar reached two-year highs against the euro, British sterling, and the Japanese yen. The dollar fell back following comments by Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, who warned against complacency about the current-account deficits and the buildup of dollar assets outside the U.S. By year’s end the dollar had recovered to end its steep three-year decline.

In late November the yen reached seven-year lows against the euro, sterling, the Australian dollar, and the South Korean won. The fall was prompted by positive economic news that sent the Nikkei 225 stock index soaring to a five-year high. The weakening yen was good news for exporters, and the Japanese government appeared complacent.

On July 21 the People’s Bank of China (PBC) announced long-awaited currency reforms following pressure on China from the U.S. and other industrialized countries to change the fixed exchange rate under which the renminbi was pegged to the dollar. The perceived undervaluation of the renminbi was seen as giving China an unfair trading advantage. Under the new regime the renminbi was revalued by 2.1% and moved to a managed float against a basket of currencies that included the dollar, the yen, the euro, and the won. This allowed the renminbi to fluctuate by 0.3% against the dollar. The Malaysian government announced that the ringgit, which was pegged to the dollar, would be subject to a managed float; it soon rose 0.7% against the dollar. The moves toward more flexible exchange rates were widely welcomed. In a further—and unexpected—move on September 25, the PBC announced a widening of the band in which currencies other than the dollar might trade against the renminbi. No reasons were given for the move, but it was likely that the wider band would ease pressure on China to intervene in the market to keep the yen and euro within the band.