If you didn't see it, Emmitt on the Brink is back! Season 4, Episode 4 has been posted - DeSean Jackson has been banned from the NFL for using another slur. Episode 5 will be posted this weekend.

Also, a friendly reminder that Jerks of the Week for Oct. 3, 2011 are up, so just click the link. This week's jerks are: 1) Jerks of the Mall. 2) Lifeguards. 3) Spanish Heritage Month.

TAMPA BAY OFFENSE: The Buccaneers don't make it look pretty, but they manage to get it done. Josh Freeman always seems to start slowly, but he is extremely clutch at the end of each half. I'd rather have someone like him than his polar opposite, Tony Romo, who posts pretty stats but chokes like Aurora Snow when the game is on the line.

The 49ers provide a much tougher challenge than Indianapolis and Atlanta. They have a terrific front seven that can get to the quarterback (9 sacks) and stop the run (1st; 2.9 YPC). LeGarrette Blount won't be able to trample the opposition like he was able to do Monday night, so Freeman will have to do more of the work.

The good news for Tampa is that San Francisco is susceptible to the pass. Both Tony Romo and QB Dog Killer eclipsed 400 passing yards against this secondary. The problem is that the Niners have awful safety play.

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: The 49ers weren't able to run the ball whatsoever in the first three weeks of the season, but they piled up 165 rushing yards against the pathetic Eagles. The Buccaneers won't be as yielding; they've given up 80 combined rushing yards to the Falcons and Colts the past two weeks.

Alex Smith obviously won't be as successful without a supporting ground attack. He'll be in more long-yardage situations, which means that Tampa Bay will be able to tee off on him. The Bucs have eight sacks in the previous two weeks, which doesn't bode well for Smith, who has been sacked 14 times this season.

That being said, the 49ers will still be able to move the chains. Tampa has had trouble tackling this season, as we all saw Monday night when the Colts turned what should have been short receptions into long gains.

RECAP: The 49ers are 3-1, but how good are they? Well, they would have barely beaten the Seahawks if it weren't for Ted Ginn (ugh). They won an ugly, 13-8 battle at Cincinnati. And they had to come back from 20 down against the Eagles. They probably should have defeated the Cowboys, but Dallas isn't very good.

The Buccaneers are the superior 3-1 squad, so I'm taking the points. I think San Francisco could be in a potential flat spot; the team is coming off a close road victory as a massive underdog, and is now favored over a team that didn't look too impressive on national TV. Check below in the trends section for the Statfox Trend.

BEST LINE: Once again, Bodog has the best line on an underdog today. Maybe that's why they're called BoDOG? I don't know. The Buccaneers are +3 -120. Definitely buy the half point to get up to the key number.

The Psychology. Edge: 49ers.
This is a tough spot for both teams. The Buccaneers won and are traveling across the country on a short week, and then have the Saints. The 49ers, meanwhile, just had a close victory as huge underdogs, and they are also traveling across the country to be favorites.

The Vegas. Edge: None.
Equal action.

Percentage of money on Tampa Bay: 59% (63,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Buccaneers.

Statfox Trend: Home favorites coming off a road win of 1-3 points are 24-43 ATS since 2000.

It's time for Notes from NFL.com GameCenter - a list of a few stupid comments I found on NFL.com's GameCenter and my thoughts on them:

1. "Lions..... remind me of Lion King (the movie). it was soooo good back then. Now they are trying to do remakes. as if it would make it better. well guess what?! its the same ol' thing.... Catch my drift?! COWBOYS BABY!!!! but c'mon lions keep the smack talk going!!!! RACK ME!!!"

No one's catching your drift. No one whatsoever. And what the hell does "Rack Me" mean? Is that something sexual?

2. "HEY NAJANOMICS I KNOW HOW DO U FEEL COUSE I'M FEEL AT THE SAME WAY THE LAST MINUTE, BRESS MADE A FEW BIG PLAYS SO AND I'M THINK THE LAST CALL PASS INTERFERENCE WASN'T"

3. "any one complaining about penatys for the steelers musta not watched the first qurater"

People are complaining about panties? What do you mean?

NEW YORK OFFENSE: Mark Sanchez played really well at the end of last season. No, really. He was the one positive for the Jets in the AFC Championship loss to the Steelers. The week before, he made several impressive throws in an upset victory at New England.

But man, he has really regressed. I don't know if it's the decline of the offensive front, Braylon Edwards' absence, or Sanchez himself, but he has gotten so much worse.

Playing the Patriots may seem like what the doctor ordered, but I wouldn't be so sure. First of all, it's unlikely that Nick Mangold will be ready for this contest, as he was limping around in pre-game warmups Sunday night. Rex Ryan wasn't optimistic about Mangold's status afterward. And second, Albert Haynesworth could be back, and his presence will really help a struggling pass rush.

Ryan said Monday that he wants to return to "ground and pound." That's easier said than done. The hobbled offensive line can't open up any holes for Shonn Greene.

NEW ENGLAND OFFENSE: Tom Brady really struggled against the Jets in that aforementioned playoff loss. Think he and Bill Belichick have spent countless hours devising a plan to beat Ryan's schemes?

I think Brady will have a huge game. He's playing out of his mind right now, and the Jets will be without starting linebacker Bryan Thomas, who has been lost for the season.

New England should be able to run the ball as well. New York has really struggled against the rush; it has allowed 446 yards on the ground to opposing running backs the past three weeks. Impressive rookie Stevan Ridley is getting more work each week, and he could have his breakout performance this Sunday.

RECAP: I hate laying this many points in a tough divisional matchup, but I'm taking the Patriots. This is a big revenge game for them, and they're catching the Jets at the right time.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
The Patriots want revenge; the Jets will be looking for redemption off that ugly loss. No edge.

More Notes from NFL.com GameCenter. All of these are from some Packer fan named ADawkins:

1. "YOU NO WHAT HONNEYBEARS F THE BEARS BECAUSE WE WERE SAYING YOU GUYS WERE GOING TO WIN BUT FORGET THAT? WE DIDNT CHEAT SO YOU CAN GO TELL YOUR FACE THAT CROP"

Yeah! Get that crop out of my face! Damn corn and wheat.

2. "ITS ALL GOOD PACKERS THE BEARS DONT NEED TO BE PICK UP NO MORE CARLINO WILL PUCH THEM BACK DOWN LOL"

Who's Carlino, and why is he "puching people?" Is he a member of the Italian mob?

3. "they saiding who dat O:"

Saiding? Does ADawkins really think "saiding" is a word? That's a low, even for GameCenter.

DENVER OFFENSE: This is a home game for the Broncos, so the crowd will be going against them. Kyle Orton will start yet again for some reason, so the fans will be chanting for Tim Tebow.

Having said that, Orton should have a decent outing. The Chargers are 21st versus the pass (7.6 YPA); even Matt Moore looked functional against them, and it could have been even worse had Brandon Marshall not lost a potential 50-yard completion in the sun. The Chargers don't really have a consistent pass rush, and Orton is well protected; he's been sacked only five times the past three weeks.

Willis McGahee eclipsed the century mark last week, but don't expect that to happen again. Since Week 2, the Chargers have done a good job limiting opposing rushing attacks.

SAN DIEGO OFFENSE: This looks ugly on paper. Philip Rivers, Ryan Mathews and Vincent Jackson take on a defense that ranks 27th against the pass, 17th versus the rush and in the bottom 10 in terms of getting to the quarterback (7 sacks). Yeeesh.

I wouldn't expect the Chargers to pile up the points, however. It's the same old story every week - they've done a good job driving down inside the opposing 35-yard line, but kill themselves with stupid mistakes. As a consequence, they turn the ball over or have to settle for field goals. Since I'll be betting against them this week, expect Nick Novak to drill all of his field goal attempts.

RECAP: Yes, I'm going against the Chargers yet again for several reasons:

1. This line may seem low, but it's really not. Think about it. The Chargers are -4 at Denver, so they'd be -10 against the Broncos at home. Yet, they were only -7 versus a Miami team that traveled across the country. The Dolphins are not three points better than the Broncos.

2. As mentioned, San Diego is playing sloppily right now. I'm probably going to keep fading them as favorites until they begin their late-season surge.

3. Here's a cool trend going against the Chargers: Road favorites coming off standard rest after two consecutive wins as home favorites are 13-41 against the spread since 1995. The SQDL for this is: pp:HWF and p:HWF and AF and p:margin > 7 and rest=6 and week < 18 and season > 1994

LOCKED IN: I'd like to pounce on the Broncos +4 before it falls to +3.5. You can get +4 -105 at Bodog.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
No psychological edge found.

The Vegas. Edge: Broncos.
The public is all over the Chargers, yet this line is falling. Hmm...

GREEN BAY OFFENSE: Aaron Rodgers is unstoppable. It's really amazing what he's doing. He's completing 73 percent of his passes on a 9.4 YPA. No one has had an answer for him since that Week 16 blowout against the Giants last year.

I wouldn't expect the Falcons to come with an answer either. They haven't registered a sack since Week 1. They just surrendered 319 passing yards on 38 attempts to the Poop Salad. Rodgers will be able to do whatever he pleases.

Atlanta is better versus the run; it has limited three of its four opponents to fewer than 90 rushing yards. James Starks won't be nearly as good as he was last week, but that hardly matters. Rodgers has thrived without the help of a steady rushing attack before, and he can do it again.

ATLANTA OFFENSE: The Falcons are having major issues on offense because their dreadful line can't protect Matt Ryan. Left tackle Sam Baker has been especially bad, and he doesn't have much of a chance against Clay Matthews.

Ryan will have to operate out of long-yardage situations because Michael Turner won't be able to find any running room. Green Bay is ranked seventh against the rush, limiting the opposition to 3.4 YPC.

The Falcons will score some points, however, as Green Bay's shaky, Nick Collins-less secondary has allowed at least 273 passing yards to every single opponent this year. That said, Green Bay's pass rush will definitely force a good amount of punts and turnovers.

RECAP: I gave this away in my NFL Power Rankings: I love the Falcons on Sunday night. This is a big-time revenge game for them, and there are a couple of great systems that support the pick.

However, I can't bet them. I'm not even sure I can even pick them for zero units. Aaron Rodgers is just way too good. Like I said last week, if you gamble against Rodgers, you might as well set your money on fire. He's just playing out of his mind, and it wouldn't surprise me one bit to see the Packers go 15-1 or even 16-0.

The Psychology. Edge: Falcons.
Big revenge game for the Falcons.

The Vegas. Edge: Falcons.
No shock that everyone is all over the Packers.

It's Monday Night Football, but we're going to have Mike Tirico, Ron Jaworski and Jon Gruden calling the shots instead of the great preseason homers like Kevin Reilly, Don Tollefson and Herm Edwards, and inept ESPN guys Emmitt and Matt Millen. Here's what it would sound like if those five clowns were calling this game:

Kevin Reilly: Welcome to Detroit, home of the stinky Lions! Hey guys, the Lions are really stinky! They haven't been to the playoffs in like 5,000 years. Why are the stinky Lions on Monday Night Football anyway? Monday Night Football should be for the best teams, like my Eagles!

Emmitt: Mike, do you not followin' what the Lion doin' this year? In math, the Pac-Man sign tryin' to eat the win number and not the lose number for the Lion for the first time since Barry Smith line up in the backfield.

Reilly: Emmitt, that's a bunch of bull crap. The Lions are stinky and nowhere near as good as my Eagles!

Herm: Look at the standings! Look at the record! Look at the wins! Look at the Tampa game! Look at the Kansas game! Look at the Minnesota game! Look at... uhh... ummm...

Reilly: Now that Herm has said it, I know it's not true. Herm is a liar and a fraud. I'm not looking at anything that loser tells me.

Emmitt: Mike, you should look at the team standing. The Lion have courage and strong this year, much like the lion in the Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe, where the little girl click two boots together and make a rainbow, and then the wizard blow up the Wicked Witch of the Northeast.

Tollefson: I wish they put me in that movie. I would have kidnapped Dorothy, and made her cook and clean for me. I would have stolen her ruby shoes so she couldn't go home. The only place my women go are the kitchen and the bedroom.

Reilly: Guys, I'm looking at the standings, and the Lions are actually good. What the hell? I thought that idiot Millen ruined everything for them?

Millen: Let me tell you, Kevin. The Lions have made a number of stupid mistakes over the years. Drafting Matthew Stafford first overall was dumb. He's not a stallion. I would have taken Darrius Heyward-Bey. Now there's a guy you can really shove some kielbasa up the anus with. In 2010, they took Ndamukong Suh. That's dumb. Suh's not even 10-percent USDA Man. Demaryius Thomas would have been my choice. I took some pictures in the locker room of Thomas' butt, and let me tell you guys, at least 10 sticks of kielbasa can fit in there. And last year, it was Nick Fairley, who is USDA Woman as far as I'm concerned.

Reilly: Shut the f*** up, stinky Herm! We'll be back after a word from our local sponsors!

CHICAGO OFFENSE: The Bears "scored" 34 points last week, but their offense didn't have a good showing. They struggled to move the chains aerially, as Jay Cutler was just 9-of-17 for 102 yards and a pick. What saved them were special teams and uncharacteristically good play-calling by Mike Martz, who gave Matt Forte more than 16 carries for the first time all year.

Can we really expect that to continue? I don't think so. It's impossible to trust Martz. Giving Forte as many carries as possible would be the right move since the Lions have surrendered at least 110 rushing yards to their previous three opponents.

If Forte is fed the ball early and often, the Bears will be able to pull the upset. If not, Chicago's offense won't do anything, as a struggling Cutler will undoubtedly take tons of sacks. He was brought down only once last week, but the Panthers don't have much of a pass rush. You can't say the same thing about Ndamukong Suh and the Lions, who have registered nine sacks on the year despite trailing by double digits in two contests.

DETROIT OFFENSE: No one has been able to stop Matthew Stafford to Calvin Johnson. Megatron already has eight touchdowns in four games. Teams keep double- and triple-teaming him, yet nothing works.

The Bears won't have an answer for this either. Chicago has actually struggled against the pass, as it has surrendered at least 270 passing yards to every single opponent this year. The defense has just three sacks in the past three games. Safety Major Wright has also been a huge (major?) liability.

Stopping the run is a problem for the Bears as well. They've permitted at least 97 rushing yards every single game, so the Lions, who usually struggle to get things going on the ground, could have a rare stellar rushing performance from Jahvid Best.

RECAP: I've heard/read that lots of people are down on the Lions because they've fallen behind by double digits in consecutive weeks. That is definitely troubling, but I don't think enough is being made about how bad the Bears have been. They were totally blown out by both the Saints and Packers, while the Panthers thoroughly outplayed them last week. The defense has struggled, while Cutler has just been awful.

This is a big game for the Lions, who are hosting a Monday Night Football contest for the first time since 2001.

The Psychology. Edge: Lions.
This is Detroit's chance to prove itself on Monday Night Football.

Week 5 NFL Picks - Early Games Chiefs at Colts, Cardinals at Vikings, Eagles at Bills, Raiders at Texans, Saints at Panthers, Bengals at Jaguars, Titans at Steelers, Seahawks at Giants

Prop/Teaser/Parlay Picks A list of some of my favorite team/player prop picks this week (Offense & defensive ROY picks to be counted
whenver winners are announced.) Picks carried over on a week-to-week basis will be in black.

My Team-by-Team ATS Record This section shows how well I do when picking each team this year. The purpose is to see how well I read each team. Pushes are not
displayed. Winning/losing streak in parentheses.