Tuesday, May 4, 2010

There was a substantial sell-off today invalidating the short term count suggested yesterday, see the chart above. An impulse lower is fairly clear, however there was only consolidation following this move. Because an impulse lower since 4/29 with 4th wave completing now is a possibility (not labeled) but in my opinion not very desirable (if the consolidation continues for most of tomorrow working into a satisfying Elliott channel, this view will change), a truncated wave (c) of [x] that completed yesterday is suggested above.

This is major truncation, but prices did break down following yesterday's highs. Considering the options above the corrective nature of the downward wave 4/29-4/30, this count has been suggested as the primary. A few other options are listed above, but my expectation is a new low tomorrow following the completion of the correction underway. This may be brief however; it is probably unlikely that the legs of a completing zigzag will come close to equality. The larger count (based on the chart above and in the larger context) continues to make sense as a correction, so a degree of unpredictability in the count should continue to be expected.

There was a substantial sell-off today invalidating the short term count suggested yesterday, see the chart above. An impulse lower is fairly clear, however there was only consolidation following this move. Because an impulse lower since 4/29 with 4th wave completing now is a possibility (not labeled) but in my opinion not very desirable (if the consolidation continues for most of tomorrow working into a satisfying Elliott channel, this view will change), a truncated wave (c) of [x] that completed yesterday is suggested above.

This is major truncation, but prices did break down following yesterday's highs. Considering the options above the corrective nature of the downward wave 4/29-4/30, this count has been suggested as the primary. A few other options are listed above, but my expectation is a new low tomorrow following the completion of the correction underway. This may be brief however; it is probably unlikely that the legs of a completing zigzag will come close to equality. The larger count (based on the chart above and in the larger context) continues to make sense as a correction, so a degree of unpredictability in the count should continue to be expected.

My trading philosophy is 95% based on my own Elliott Wave analysis of the S&P 500. I try to keep my analysis and trading as simple as possible and do not use trend lines, channels, or definite retracement, price, or time targets. To me, inspecting the proportionality and symmetry of a market's price structure is the key to mastering the principle; it is through this that low-risk, high-reward trading opportunities are found.

Because they are the only things I look at when trading, the quality of the charts I post on this blog are very important to me. I think you will find my work to be the best Elliott Wave analysis of the S&P 500 on the internet.