The author is a Forbes contributor. The opinions expressed are those of the writer.

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For all the talk about Syria, Iran, and intensified conflict in the Middle East, none of those represent the situation with the highest potential for an international military conflagration. With our own presidential election having dominated the American political dialogue in recent months, tensions between China and Japan – two global economic powerhouses – have once again been escalating.

The Chinese government’s increasing public belligerence toward Japan is a longstanding dispute over the Senkaku Islands, a group of uninhabited islands in the East China Sea that sit atop potentially enormous oil and natural gas resources. The issue illustrates an important lesson for investors on geopolitical risk: It’s never where you expect it to be.

Why would China’s political and military leaders suddenly begin pushing the envelope more aggressively in territorial disputes that have been going on for close to 50 years?

To answer that question, consider the compromise between the Chinese government and its citizens that emerged from the bloodshed of the Tiananmen Square massacre of 1989. In the absence of democratic reforms, the government chose to re-establish its legitimacy on two pillars: economic growth with higher standards of living, and a nationalist ideology to elevate China’s reputation to that of a major player in the global economy.

The years since Tiananmen Square have been a period of prolonged economic development which has spiked China’s relevance on the international stage and boosted the government’s popularity with its citizens. Even so, the relationship has remained a rocky one in large part because Beijing made promises of never-ending economic expansion. China’s problem of slowing growth is being exacerbated by its dearth of domestic energy resources, which may prove to be a continual drag – if not an outright cap – on the country’s attempts to reach its long-term potential.

The timing of China's deteriorating growth and its increasingly hard-line stance with Japan over the Senkaku Islands is not a coincidence, but rather a product of its recent economic slowdown.

No longer able to depend solely on organic economic growth to maintain its legitimacy, China’s government has chosen instead to stoke the fires of nationalism. One sure way to generate support is through intensified confrontation with old political rivals like Japan. In the event that the Chinese economy continues to weaken, do not be surprised if China deepens its nationalistic tone, which could lead to even more military hostility with its neighbors over disputed territories in Asia.

Should this happen, here are some areas investors should monitor opportunistically.

Increased boycotts of Japanese companies: In the wake of rising tensions over the Senkaku Islands, calls within China for a boycott of Japanese goods have already gained momentum. Likewise, 24 percent of Japanese manufacturers recently said they were considering delaying or reducing planned investment in China. Those policies have hit Japan’s auto industry particularly hard as new car sales to China for Mazda, Mitsubishi, Nissan and Toyota Motor tumbled 35 to 65 percent in September compared to a year earlier. If relations between the two countries worsen, further boycotts are possible and automakers won’t be the only Japanese companies investors should avoid. Others already experiencing the effect of Chinese boycotts include Kamatsu, Panasonic, Sharp, Mitsubishi Heavy, Sumitomo, and Toyo Tire.

American companies, however, could benefit from the boycotts. General Electric, Deere and Caterpillar all have established business relationships in China and are positioned to fill the void left by Japanese competitors.

U.S. defense companies could benefit. In a heightened security environment under the shadow cast by a wealthy and heavily armed China, other Asian-Pacific countries could spend more on advanced weapons systems in anticipation of a military conflict. That could bode well for defense contractors in the United States, many of which have been bracing for potentially severe cuts to the Pentagon's budget at the beginning of 2013. Two examples are Northrop Grumman and United Technologies.

There is no question China and many of its close neighbors in Asia are experiencing a period of unprecedented material prosperity, and the incentives to continue along that path will certainly influence political diplomacy.

Indeed, one could argue that the intense economic interdependence and shared prosperity among China and its neighbors (including Japan) rules out any realistic possibility of warfare within the region. Such an outcome would be utterly irrational given what all parties involved would stand to lose.

That being said, much the same argument about economic interdependence was made by British author Norman Angell in The Great Illusion. Five years later marked the beginning of the First World War.

Investors would be wise to closely monitor geopolitical risks in Asia. While the chances of a true military conflict may seem unlikely for now, remember the lesson about where those risks typically lie. A continued slowdown in the Chinese economy would only increase the possibility.

Ben Marks is president and chief investment officer of Marks Group Wealth Management, a Minnetonka, Minnesota-based independent registered investment advisory firm with approximately $400 million in assets under management.