* Warriors vs. Spurs tonight at Oracle. This is obviously a historic regular-season match up andfor the first half-plus as they head into this game.

-Others have written many good articles previewing this match-up… and reminding us there are several more of these the rest of the regular season…

And pointing out the true meaning won’t be known until and unless the Warriors and Spurs meet in the playoffs, probably in a massive Western Conference finals tilt.

The Spurs, being the Spurs, announced yesterday that Tim Duncan will miss this game (he’s not even with the team) due to knee soreness.

Whether that’s typical Gregg Popovich gamesmanship, actual necessary rest for Duncan, or some combination (I’dguess it’s the combo-platter) … it’s hardly unexpected at this point of the season.

The Spurs don’t do Game of the Centuries, not in January, and full respect to Popovich and that franchise for always playing the long game.

And I completely agree with Popovich’s implied point: This game is not the most important game of all-time or even more important possibly than 4 or 5 other regular-season games involving either team later in the season.

There’s just too much basketball left to presume anything more about this game.

However, I do think there will be very interesting angles to tonight’s meeting, symbolic developments and maybe even some partial basketball conclusions to make, if we’re lucky.

* First, the absence of Duncan puts a lot of focus on Popovich’s big-man rotation, which is going to be key vs. the Warriors, no matter what.

I want to see how Popovich usesLaMarcus Aldridge, Boris Diaw and David West and maybe even Boban Marjanovic against the Warriors, and I want to see if Steve Kerr goes to his Killer Small Line-up often or at all tonight.

Diaw, in particular, always seems to be the key complementary guy when the Spurs play the Warriors–he can go fast vs. Small Ball, he’s uniquely effective vs. Draymond Green in the post, and he just seems to bug the Warriors in a way that few other non-superstars can bug them.

I think the Warriors’ defense against Diaw is going to be big in this game and in all Warriors-Spurs games, and I think generally the Warriors’ defensive effort tonight will be the decisive factor.

We know that the Spurs are playing incredible, milestone defense so far this season, but that’s with Duncan in the middle, playing 27 minutes per at his absolute zenith of defensive efficiency, somehow, this late in his career.(We also can figure that Duncan vs. the Warriors Killer Small Line-up might be something Popovich wouldn’t want to see for long spells, anyway.)

Duncan won’t be out there at all tonight, so let’s presume the Spurs take a slight step back in their defensive level… and of course they’ve achieved this level so far without having played the Warriors, who are the No. 1 team in offensive efficiency.

The Warriors are fifth in defensive efficiency. The Spurs are third in offensive efficiency.

I think this game–and all games between these two teams–will largely revolve on the Warriors’ ability to gum up the Spurs’ offensive rhythm, because we can guess that the Warriors’ own offensive levels will drop down a bit vs. Kawhi Leonard & Co.

* What’s at stake in the long-term? We know that the Warriors and Spurs are in a season-long skirmish for the No. 1 seed in the West, and if you get it, you get Games 1, 2 and possibly 5 and 7 at home in a possible West finals.

All huge.

But also: The No. 2 seed is likely going to be headed straight into a West semifinal match-up with Oklahoma City, and the No. 1 seed would avoid that.Yep, Oklahoma City is on pace to win 58 games this season… and to finish more than 10 wins behind the West’s #1 AND #2 teams.* Season point-differentials as they go into Monday’s showdown: Spurs +14.5, Warriors +12.1.

Both are massive numbers. The Spurs’ number is historic, to this point.

The Spurs’ number, if maintained, would be the largest in NBA history over a full season.

Currently the record is +12.3 by the 1971-’72 Lakers. (Who went 69-13 and won the Western Conference finals by beating the Milwaukee Bucks, who, at +11.2, remain the only team to ever have a +10 point-differential or higher and not win the NBA title. Looks like there will be a second team added to that list this season.)

The Warriors’ +10.1 last season was eighth-best all-time.

* Another match-up question: When and how much does Kawhi Leonard defend Stephen Curry?

I suspect–maybe not in this game, maybe in the playoffs–Leonard will see a lot of time defending Draymond Green, which sets up Leonard to make the easy switch to Curry on the Warriors’ patented 1-4 pick-and-roll.

So I can guess that Danny Green will start defending Curry and Tony Parker will get at least some time on Harrison Barnes.

* The other notable statistical battle will happen at the three-point line: Warriors average 12.8 made three-pointers per game–No. 1 in the league. Curry alone averages almost 5 a game.

San Antonio allows only 5.9 made threes per game–also No. 1 in the league.

The Warriors average 5.9 more made three-pointers per game than their opponents, by far tops in the league.

I don’t think this game will necessarily come down to three-point shooting, because I think San Antonio’s defense is too good to let that happen, usually. But if it does, we know which team it favors.

* Not that it matters, but I think the Warriors are going to win this game–they’ve gotten the burst of adrenaline from Steve Kerr’s return, and having him on the court vs. Popovich is a huge symbolic thing for the home team.

I think Oracle will be loud and stormy, I think it’ll be a close game, and I think the Warriors win it, to keep alive the possibility of the NBA’s first-ever undefeated home campaign.