Analyse India Big Value 4.0

We are pleased to announce the subscriptions for Analyse India Big Value 4.0.

This is the 4th iteration of the product with the first one being in 2013. By Gods grace the performance has been inline with expectations and hope we can do the same for the coming one also.

What do you get in Big Value 4.0 ?

25-50 investment ideas in a year.

1-4 investment ideas in a month.

Focus will be on companies with decent fundamentals and good potential.

There will be a few trading bets due to market opportunities based on technicals.

A bit of technical analysis for better timing or catching the trend early or in momentum for picking up good companies at good prices.

The normal allocation to one stock would be 2% to start with. So ideally we should have 50 stocks. But in many cases we will allocate more to some stock with max limit of 10-12% to one stock and around will generally be diversifed to a minimum of 20-25 stocks or more.

The accumulation of stocks would be done over the next 1 year so one will be investing systematically and increasing allocation to equity in steps.

We would be focusing on companies based on different investing styles and at times even in companies where corporate governance is changing and valuations are low. Also money would be deployed over a period of 1 year volatility would reduce.

In the long run a diversified stock portfolio can beat the benchmark index returns by a big margin. For example in a study we did for a random portfolio of stocks, outperformed the Nifty/Midcap Index returns over a 10 year period. This period had two rounds of bull/bear cycle. But going into good companies can reduce capital loss in the interim. ( So our returns could also be totally random but we try to make lot of efforts to outperform at lower risks. Do read this post )

We do not focus on catching multibaggers or 10 baggers but it is about finding good risk-reward entries in quality stocks. Pleasant surprises are welcome.

There are no promised / expected /possible returns or possible loss / expected loss etc but the target is 20-30% annual returns along with beating the benchmarks by a good margin and to control risks more importantly.

The motive of this product is to make investors increase their exposure to equities gradually and we will put the full allocation over the next 6-12 months ( starting 1st July ). The updates will continue for 24 months even for people who do not renew. We will launch the Big Value 5.0 after 18 months.

We will generally have an update every few weeks and a portfolio review once in 3-6 months.

Apart from the stock recommendations and updates on the same every quarter we do send Technical View on the Markets on important times ( like at 7000 in February 2016) and other additional research.

We will continue to research honestly and recommend to the best of our ability and we do not claim or promise super normal returns.

This is meant for long term investors who have a horizon of 1-3 years and do not get scared by a 20-40% drop in a good company. ( yes that has happened many a times in our stocks and can happen in the future too )

Even traders can deploy some part of their capital into this portfolio with a long term view to build a corpus.

Money is to be allocated over a period of 6-12 months so investors will need to be patient and expect conservative returns. Let me repeat this is not for short term trading ideas.

As a disclosure we would be investing personally also into the recommended companies.

The communication medium would be via e-mail .

How long is it open for subscription ?

Unlike our other services which are open for subscription this one will be open only till June 30th 2017 or when the limit we have set for no of people is reached. ( The max limit is 125-150 people.)

We had started Big Value 3.0 in December 2015.

What has been the Past Performance ?

The performance of Big Value 1.0 , Big Value 2.0 and Big Value 3.0 has been around the lines what we wanted to be but does that confirm it would be for Big Value 4.0 ?. We could turn out to be terrible too or outperform crazily that god only knows. So please understand the risks involved. Equity Portfolios can drop 20-30% easily even in long term uptrends and have fallen 40-60% from peak in times of bear markets like 2008. Although the valuations are a little stretched as of now but earnings have not picked up and we believe we may get some opportunities over the next year or so.

In the last 3 runs of Big Value the performance has been above the 20-30% number which we try to target but going ahead with lower interest rates we think we should lower expectations to 15-25% and more importantly focus on mitigating risk and being more careful in allocation/selection.

Past Performance is not a guarantee of the future but definitely is a great source of learning.

By gods grace the peformance of Big Value 3.0 has been decent and there have been a lot of learnings and improvements. ( This needs a different post altogether and will be writing a separate note on it in a few days.)

Big Value 3.0

The returns for Big Value 3.0 as on December 15th 2017 is

49% CAGR

46% absolute.

A major part of the returns can be attributed to the bull market in smallcaps and midcaps and a bit of it to us for picking up a lot of stocks in January/February 2016 when Nifty had dipped to 7500-6850 accompanied with a good correction in smallcaps.

I would suggest you to go through the portfolio in detail and do the math.

We have taken a size of 10 lakhs to be deployed and so 2% allocation would be 20k into one investment idea. ( This is the minimum size which is recommended for the portfolio. Advisory accordingly is charged at less than 2-3% expense to portfolio. You can have a higher capital and the advisory costs reduce.)

We have not included dividends neither have we included brokerage. ( only one included was a dividend which was higher than 10% of value invested.)

You can do further detailed analysis of the Big Value 2.0 by loading the backup file on mprofit.in which has a nice free software for less than 50 lakhs portfolio. Would recommend the software otherwise too ( Do note am not being paid for saying so )