Monday, December 14, 2009

On PBR and a Possible March Election

The intriguing questions facing us become ever more intiguing. Alistair Darling's Pre Budget Report has generally been judged at best a damp sqib- at worst a minor disaster. Andrew Rawnsley reminds us that ther PBR was invented by Gordon to:

'give him two opportunities to deliver a budget every year, two occssions to subject his Cabinet colleagues to his power, two occassions to infuriate Tony Blair by hiding what he was up to, two occasions to make the same announcements of spending promises, and two occasions to boast that he had ended boom and bust.'

Rawnsley goes on to point out that politically the PBR failed to impress the bonds markets who were looking for a credible plan that debt would be reduced. The danger now is that the costs off borrowing for Britain may soar even higher; 'the insurance premium for lending to Britain is now higher than that charged for lending to Slovakia'. Not only did Darling not convince over cuts but his increase in National Insurance was seen as a tax on jobs when unemployment is still rising sharply. The press took fulla critical advantage.

Rawnsley suggests voters were also unimpresed by what seemed to be a precurser to a series of cuts and squeezes. And if the IFS figures are correct each household will have to deliver over two grand a year in lost earnings for a total of eight years until the books are balanced. Oh Lor!

And yet the other story running alongside this is that Labour are catching up the Tories whose lead has slipped from 20 points a year ago to shrinking single figures now. Some opportunists are urging a snap election in March to avoid another budget debacle and take advantage of a voting tendency which will at least avoid wipeout and may deliver a hung parliament out of which Brown might parley a continuation in power. Wiser heads advise this would be precipitate. Professor Paul Whiteley argues the narrowing of the lead is a result of a 'feel good' factor returnng as the economy seems to retun to 'normal'. He questions whether this will continue and says the lead could shrink even more by May.

My own feeling- from the present vantage point- is that Cameron will lead the biggest party after the election and will then become prime minister as Gordon will appear to have 'lost' trhe contest. This would be in precisely the same way as Labour 'lost' in the 2007 Scottish Parliament elections and had to bow to Alex Salmond's SNP minority government.

It is time we forget the Second world war, we are not the country that can run around the world stopping conflicts we do not have the army, we do not have the equipment and we do not have the money.

So no more being the UN police force let France and Germany take it over.

We now need to look internally at what is going on, why is it we have no real jobs for people, these retail parks which are now the placed people work, I think I'd rather slit my wrist at birth then end up stacking shelves at Tesco or Asda.

But this is now the main area of work for this country either that or dying for New labour in some stupid war, done on a pack of lies so Blair can fill his pockets with Luca from America.

This week I was told I was nothing more then a Troll because after the welfare reforms I join Plaid in Wales, but of course this month we are told the over sixty fives will lose DLA and AA benefits for the sick and disabled many of these will be old soldiers miners and steel workers, so they can we are told have a nurse look after them.

We have ten million disabled people some get the AA but we are told only 100,000 will need total care, so Labour will now save £8 billion spend 600 million and dump 8 million perhaps into massive poverty.

The UK is in a mess a real mess and sadly like it or not it has been the failure of New Labour to keep it's eyes on the ball with Banking. But I wonder how many MP's will lose any money or any expenses, I see my MP has this year decided not to claim for food, but she has claimed the same expenses almost to the penny by putting in claims for £20 no receipts. I think life is going to get hard for the poor the sick the disabled and the working class.

About Me

I was born in the Welsh borderlands and grew up in Shrewsbury. Then to Aberystwyth University before working in the admin class of the civil service for a couple of unhappy years. Then got job at Manchester University which I loved. I became Director Extra-Mural Studies 1986-91 and then had a stroke while out jogging. Retired on medical grounds but still teach and write a good deal. Recently took up a part-time position in politics at Liverpool Hope University. Why Skipper? Legacy of captaining a post-graduate cricket team at university.