U.S. Talking Tougher About Iran as Netanyahu Visit Approaches

By John Walcott -
Mar 1, 2012

Obama administration officials are
escalating warnings that the U.S. could join Israel in attacking
Iran if the Islamic republic doesn’t dispel concerns that its
nuclear-research program is aimed at producing weapons.

Four days before Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
is scheduled to arrive in Washington, Air Force Chief of Staff
General Norton Schwartz told reporters the Joint Chiefs of Staff
have prepared military options to strike Iranian nuclear sites
in the event of a conflict.

“What we can do, you wouldn’t want to be in the area,”
Schwartz told reporters in Washington yesterday.

Pentagon officials said military options being prepared
start with providing aerial refueling for Israeli planes and
include attacking the pillars of the clerical regime, including
the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its elite Qods Force,
regular Iranian military bases and the Ministry of Intelligence
and Security. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity
because Pentagon plans are classified.

“There’s no group in America more determined to prevent
Iran from achieving a nuclear weapon than the Joint Chiefs of
Staff,” Joint Chiefs Chairman Army General Martin Dempsey told
the House Budget Committee yesterday. “I can assure you of
that.”

Separately, unnamed U.S. officials told the Washington Post
that U.S. military planners are increasingly confident that
sustained attacks with the Air Force’s 30,000-pound (13,608
kilograms) “bunker-buster” bombs could put Iran’s deeply
buried uranium-enrichment plant at Fordo out of commission.

Meetings Failing

The latest American warnings of possible military action
against Iran come after meetings between top Israeli and Obama
administration officials failed to resolve differences over when
an attack would become necessary, according to officials of both
countries who have participated in the discussions.

Most Israelis oppose a unilateral attack on Iran’s nuclear
facilities if it doesn’t have U.S. support, the Globes financial
daily said, citing a survey conducted by the Washington-based
Brookings Institute. Only 19 percent of Israelis support their
country striking Iran without U.S. backing, Globes said.

Will to Act

“Because there is uncertainty about the administration’s
will to act in the Israelis’ minds, and more importantly in the
Iranians’ minds, it’s very important that we don’t just say that
all options are on the table, but also show that they are, by
some overt means,” Representative Mike Rogers, a Michigan
Republican who heads the House Intelligence Committee and was
one of the recent visitors to Israel, said in a phone interview.

Other U.S. officials spoke only on condition of anonymity
because the discussions have been private and because the
administration is trying to reassure Israel and its American
supporters of its determination while also tamping down fears
that are helping drive up oil prices.

Iranian leaders are using the bellicose talk to draw voters
for tomorrow’s parliamentary elections, the first since a
disputed vote in 2009 that sparked mass riots.

The ballot “will be a slap in the face of enemies of the
nation,” Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on his
website yesterday, urging voters to “stand tall and show your
determination” by taking part. Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani
last week called the election “a big step to preserve the
dignity of the Iranian nation.” Israel declined to comment.

Drawing the Line

About 48 million Iranians are eligible to vote and more
than 3,400 candidates have been cleared to compete for the 290
seats in the assembly, known as the Majlis.

The most significant difference between the U.S. and
Israel, said American officials, is where to draw the line on
Iran’s atomic program. Parliament doesn’t have power over the
country’s foreign policy and the outcome of the race is unlikely
to affect Iran’s foreign policy.

Obama administration officials have suggested that the
trigger for military action should be a decision by Khamenei to
enrich uranium beyond a current level of 20 percent that
supports nuclear-power generation to a weapons-grade level 85 or
90 percent.

U.S. and Israeli intelligence officials said they agree
that such a decision would be hard to detect until sometime
after it had been made.

Israel is more concerned about Iran’s missile and nuclear-
weapon technology programs while the U.S. is focused on the
Persian Gulf nation’s uranium-enrichment activities, the Israeli
officials said.

Targets Measured

Iranian nuclear facilities at Natanz and Fordo would be
difficult to destroy because they were built to withstand air
attacks. Israel, which has the 5,000 pound GBU-28 bomb, said its
ability to strike is underestimated, according to the officials.

Iran’s warhead and weaponization facilities at the military
complexes at Parchin and Bidganeh and elsewhere are more
vulnerable, at least for now, the Israeli officials said,
according to Americans who met with them.

Iran barred International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors
from the Parchin site in February, and a still-unexplained Nov.
14 explosion at the Bidganeh missile base killed an Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps general.

The Israelis said what worries them is that Iran could
complete work on warheads, triggers, neutron reflectors and the
other ingredients of a nuclear weapon or move that work to
harder-to-hit facilities.

Intelligence Report

A recent U.S. intelligence analysis concluded that if Iran
can get its centrifuges to produce weapons-grade uranium and
assemble in different locations the 33-44 pounds of material
needed for a weapon, a delivery system and other necessary
components, it could build an atomic weapon in two months, said
two U.S. officials who have read the analysis.

Further underscoring the timing issue, U.S. and Israeli
officials have concluded that Iran may be content with a
computer test of a new weapon rather than detonating one in the
desert, thanks in part to confidence inspired by what they said
is significant North Korean assistance. These officials also
spoke only on the basis of anonymity because intelligence
matters are classified.

The American officials said their Israeli counterparts are
less inclined than the Obama administration is to give the
toughening economic sanctions on Iran more time to work for a
second reason: They are skeptical that sanctions can ever
persuade Iran to abandon its pursuit of an atomic weapon.

Israel’s Role

In different meetings with American counterparts in
Washington, Jerusalem and Tel Aviv, Netanyahu, Defense Minister
Ehud Barak and Tamir Pardo, the head of Israel’s foreign-
intelligence service Mossad, argued that only Israeli military
action prevented Iraq and Syria from going nuclear.

They also said witnessing the dictators of non-nuclear Iraq
and Libya toppled by or with Western assistance, coupled with a
deep sense that Shiite Muslim Iran is entitled to a weapon that
Christians, Jews, Sunnis, Hindus, Russia and China all possess,
may reinforce Iran’s intentions of continuing to develop a
weapon.

High-level visitors have included Barak, Pardo, Vice
President Joe Biden, U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, U.S.
Director of National Intelligence James Clapper, CIA Director
David Petraeus, Dempsey, U.S. National Security Adviser Tom Donilon, White House adviser Dennis Ross, Rogers and C.A. “Dutch” Ruppersberger, the ranking Democrat on the U.S. House
Intelligence Committee.

U.S. Resolve Questioned

These talks have failed to dispel Israeli doubts that
President Barack Obama is willing to do whatever is necessary to
keep nuclear weapons out of Iranian hands, the American
officials said. Barak described a meeting with Panetta yesterday
only as “important and useful.”

Netanyahu isn’t convinced Obama will alter his emphasis on
sanctions as a mean to change Iranian behavior, U.S. officials
said.

Responding to a question during a House Appropriations
subcommittee budget hearing yesterday about concerns Israel may
attack Iran, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton responded:
“Let’s focus on economic sanctions that we have the world
behind right now. We believe we’re making progress on the
sanctions front.”

U.S. Policies

Iran doesn’t believe the U.S. has the resolution to
intervene again in the region, according to the Israeli
officials, who cited Washington’s abandonment of former Egyptian
President Hosni Mubarak and the limited support given Muammar Qaddafi’s overthrow in Libya. They said Washington succumbed to
domestic political pressure in exits from Iraq and Afghanistan.

Finally, the Israelis told some U.S. officials that the
administration’s failure to retaliate against Iran for plotting
to assassinate the Saudi Arabian ambassador to the U.S. and its
inability to get Egypt to free the son of Transportation
Secretary Ray LaHood, who is one of 16 American pro-democracy
activists charged with operating without government permission,
has reinforced an image of American weakness.

Some Republicans share those doubts. Senator Lindsey Graham
of South Carolina, a Republican member of the Senate Armed
Services Committee, said the Obama administration should be
“more clear” in its determination to prevent Iran from
acquiring nuclear weapons capability.

“The intelligence community is uncertain about Iranian
intentions,” Graham told reporters at a news conference
yesterday. “You don’t need to be Sherlock Holmes to figure this
out.”