Obama only up 4 in SurveyUSA poll in … Oregon?

posted at 2:41 pm on May 11, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

With all of his other competition out of the way, no one should be surprised how Mitt Romney stacks up against other Republicans in the Oregon primary, set for next Tuesday. A new SurveyUSA poll shows Romney with 58% of the vote, with Ron Paul in a distant second at 14%, which means that the May 15th primary will be as drama-free as possible. However, the poll also shows Romney within the margin of error against Barack Obama in the Democratic stronghold — and gaining:

In a November match-up between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney for President of the United States, Obama today edges Romney, 47% to 43%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 2 months ago, when the Republican primary was still competitive, Obama is down 3 points; Romney is up 4. Among women, Obama leads by 13; among men, Romney leads by 6 — a 19-point gender gap. Independents break 4:3 for Obama. In 2008, Obama defeated John McCain by 16 points in Oregon.

The sample in this poll uses registered voters, a survey type that normally tilts a little more toward Democrats. The split might tilt more toward Republicans, though, with a D/R/I of 38/35/27. The D/R/I in 2008 was 36/27/37, and given that independents break more for Obama in this poll (44/33), the difference could be having a substantial impact on the results.

The other internals are intriguing. Anyone from Oregon will be unsurprised to discover that Obama’s strength comes from the Portland area, which he leads by 12 over Romney, but only at a bare majority of 50/38. In the rest of the state, Romney leads by 13 points, 53/40. Obama also leads among 18-34YOs, but not by as much as one would imagine, 49/38, short of a majority. Obama only scores majorities among self-described liberals and very liberals, while carrying Oregon moderates only by a plurality of 47/37.

Obama may have a solid lead, but it’s an unimpressive one in what should be a no-worry, loyal Democratic state. By failing to get to 50%, Obama gives an impression of vulnerability in Oregon, a state that last went Republican when Ronald Reagan ran for re-election. Romney might have Obama playing defense outside of the normally-accepted set of swing states in November.

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Obama won that state by 16 points in 2008. If he loses 12 points off of that(or somewhere within that vicinity), he’ll get crushed in a landslide. That means states like Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada are almost certainly goners.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the Badger State finds Obama with 49% of the vote to Romney’s 45%. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, while two percent (2%) are undecided

I just think that Obama’s strategy of scorched earth is paying its dividends – but in reverse.

Independents hate it. This bullying thing was a joke and I think the electorate is kind of saying – C’mon!!

O doesn’t have the money to carpet bomb they way he needs to in order to be effective. He is going to have to back off and then what does he do? He has no record to run on. None. I still think this race will end up close just because CA, NY, IL and Mass are in his columns and that is a lot of votes. but I could see a reversal of the 2008 results in the GOP favor.

I noticed that as well. Do Oregonians worship the Illuminati or something? I noticed some lady doing that sign after the Oregon Ducks won the Rose Bowl. Which I thought was odd since you’d think they’d at least do a circle(for Oregon) with their hands, not a triangle. And it is certainly not a ‘D’.

The Unions are trying to put a referendum on State Appointed Emergengy Managers on the Michigan Ballot for November.

With cities like Pontiac, Detroit, Allen Park and others going bankrupt and contemplaiting or actually having EMs, this referendum will get out the Union/Urban vote this November.

This will benefit Obama naturally, but with Gov. Rick Snyder actually fixiing much of the damage that Democrat Jenny Granholm did for eight years, there just may be enough support in the rest of the state to push it to Romney…

While the propagandists of the DNC could spin the Bush prosperity years as terrible for other people they cannot do the same when 500,000 people quit looking for work in the last two months.

Mini-Tru is desperate with these 50 year old stories of a teenaged Mitt and nothing about 0bama smoking pot, drinking excessively and snorting cocaine. Much less looking for those super genius college grades on his transcripts.

I was telling people he would lose by a wide margin right after he won in ’08. This is why I was so disappointed Palin didn’t run. She would have unified the anti-Mitt vote and made it dam close or even overtaken him.

Just about anyone could beat The One this time around. We could have had something more to our liking. Don’t get me wrong, I will vote for Mitt, but it will be more of a anti-O vote. And yes I know it’s pointless to play the ‘if only’ game, but I can’t help but wondering…

If not now, when? Say what you will about The One, at least the Prog’s got to vote FOR someone they wanted last time. When do we get to vote for someone that sends a tingle up our leg? Just once before I die I want to vote for someone as opposed to voting against the other jerk.

This is admittedly a fun story, but IMHO not really significant. Please note the following:

1. McCain at his high water mark in ’08 was only behind Obama by 5 points in one poll — in NY.

2. If “only” 50% of the Portland vote is in support of Obama, be assured that the others want someone farther to the LEFT. Remember that Portland was home to the wonderfully tolerant “She’s not a woman, she’s a Republican” anti-Palin sticker in ’08.

Romney will never win in Oregon. But polls like this show Obama will is in big trouble in purple states like Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, and Virgina. And he will have no chance in red-leaning states like Florida, Indiana, Ohio, and North Carolina.

We will not vote for Mitt, McCain, Ford, Dole or any other poser like them.

Steveangell on May 11, 2012 at 3:14 PM

The republicans and conservatives I know all do not like Romney, and I still haven’t actually met anyone in real life who does. Most of my family have already said they aren’t going to bother to vote in November, at least not for president, and a few are starting to talk about this Johnson fellow.

Romney will never win in Oregon. But polls like this show Obama will is in big trouble in purple states like Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, and Virgina. And he will have no chance in red-leaning states like Florida, Indiana, Ohio, and North Carolina.

He’s all done.

kevinkristy on May 11, 2012 at 3:16 PM

All this shows me is pollsters love playing games with us and giving us false hope.

They do this every four years. Gay Marriage wins in polls but never in an election. Polls have become worthless unless a couple of weeks prior to an actual election. They know they can fake it the rest of the time and they do.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the Badger State finds Obama with 49% of the vote to Romney’s 45%. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, while two percent (2%) are undecided

Obama is below 50%

Conservative4ev on May 11, 2012 at 2:48 PM

As I and several others have beens aying, Wisconsin is the key. If Romney wins there Obama is going to lose, end of story. It appears the Walker recall is generating some coattails like Republicans have been hoping for.

In the 2010 midterms Oregon had one safe GOP seat, one safe Dem seat, and three competitive seats where the three Dem incumbents each ended up with less than 55% of the vote. Oregon isn’t more than a couple points off from being a toss-up.

I noticed that as well. Do Oregonians worship the Illuminati or something? I noticed some lady doing that sign after the Oregon Ducks won the Rose Bowl. Which I thought was odd since you’d think they’d at least do a circle(for Oregon) with their hands, not a triangle. And it is certainly not a ‘D’.

Any people from Oregon know the significance of that triangle sign?

Sterling Holobyte on May 11, 2012 at 3:04 PM

It’s actually a lazy attempt at an O. It should be more circular, but these people smoke a lot of weed. Go to a Ducks game and it’s a slightly higher percentage doing it correctly. And I use the term “higher” in more ways than one.

You guys never got picked during PE for sports did you? Was it because everyone knew if you got the ball you’d hand it to the other team and claim you signed up for study hall.

AubieJon on May 11, 2012 at 3:24 PM

I can’t speak for Steveangell, but I threw Shotput in PE and went to state competitions. What is with these pathetic attempts at high school bullying with you Mittbots? Always calling other people children and such, it’s just weird.

You call that bullying?!? Outstanding! I’m just thankful there are only a handful of people like you guys who’d rather throw away a right to vote that has cost buckets of blood and human lives just because you can’t get a perfect candidate.

Romney will also win in PA,WI,MI and NJ!!!! (I think Minnesota is a bridge too far)

Natebo on May 11, 2012 at 3:00 PM

Give us Bobby “Indian Wonder” Jindal as VP and I pretty much guarantee that New Jersey flips red in 2012. We have 200,000 voters of Indian origin who are mostly indifferent to politics but will crawl through fire, broken glass and acid waste to vote for one of their own.

I can’t speak for Steveangell, but I threw Shotput in PE and went to state competitions. What is with these pathetic attempts at high school bullying with you Mittbots? Always calling other people children and such, it’s just weird.

You call that bullying?!? Outstanding! I’m just thankful there are only a handful of people like you guys who’d rather throw away a right to vote that has cost buckets of blood and human lives just because you can’t get a perfect candidate.

AubieJon on May 11, 2012 at 3:32 PM

A right to vote is not an obligation to vote for someone who violates your most basic beliefs and who has a lifelong history of pandering to the public to further his own political career.

Give us Bobby “Indian Wonder” Jindal as VP and I pretty much guarantee that New Jersey flips red in 2012. We have 200,000 voters of Indian origin who are mostly indifferent to politics but will crawl through fire, broken glass and acid waste to vote for one of their own.

Archivarix on May 11, 2012 at 3:32 PM

is that so? then Jindal it is, we have some 3 million people of Indian origins in California (Sikh included, largest community of Sikhs outside India)…btw, love them, I know a few on the work level, and have some as neighbors, most honest, hard working, with an impeccable work ethics people I know…would love to see the Won’s support here dwindling…but then, as far as I know, the Indians in Cali tend to vote conservative anyways…

David Gregory: It’s 7:30 PM on the East Coast and NBC can now project, based on our data, that former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney — yes, Willard Mitt Romney — will become the next President of the United States based on our projections.

Chris Matthews: Wow… just wow.

Rachel Maddow: Well… uh…

Chris Matthews: What does this say about us as a nation? Seriously? What does this say about us as a nation to the world?

Rachel Maddow: Uh… well.

David Gregory: I don’t want to interrupt you, Chris, but we are projecting that New York will fall into the Romney column along with Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina, and possibly Maryland.

Oregon has mail-in ballots. While that would normally worry me, I had to take my birth certificate and drivers license to the registration office in person before receiving any ballots that would be counted.

That said, I mailed in my ballot last week with Mitt Romney as my choice for the Republican nomination.

On the ground here, the Obama bumper stickers are getting rare. When I do see one, I point and laugh. They get it! Will Oregon go for Romney? I doubt it, but it will probably be closer than ’08.

A right to vote is not an obligation to vote for someone who violates your most basic beliefs and who has a lifelong history of pandering to the public to further his own political career.

Buckshot Bill on May 11, 2012 at 3:41 PM

It is an obligation to speak up and do what you can to prevent someone who is destroying our nation from getting 4 more years. You’re never going to get a perfect candidate to vote for. Either vote for the best candidate…or run yourself. Don’t just sit at home.

Years ago I used to be subjected to wrestling on tv that my buddies wanted to watch. At the time, one of the wrestlers went by the name, Diamond Dallas Page, or something like that. I seem to recall his “signature” looking something similar to the “O” those sycophantic kids are making in the picture Ed posted.

Well… as much of professional wrestling is acting and entertainment – fake – that does describe “O” pretty well.

meh, Theo Spark just had a video of a guy that was a Desert Storm wounded veteran that had been told he would never walk again. He followed a DDP yoga video and lost something like 130 lbs in 10 months and by the end of the video it shows him running.

I had never heard of him and he gets two references in two days in my universe.

When my son was small and learning sign language, there was a family who made up some “family” signs…not knowing what this sign meant in ASL, they used it for the word “pizza” until a well meaning deaf person told them what it meant in ASL.

I’ll let you all speculate what this sign represents as it refers to the President.

Sorry to burst you bubble but Mitt is losing not gaining votes. But most will not admit they will not vote for Mitt and pretend party unity

.

Yeah because that’s what all that polling means, he’s losing votes…only it’s a crafty, SEEEEECRET plan, and we all tell the pollsters one thing, but we all do the other…Steve this is called “wishcasting.”

Mini-Tru is desperate with these 50 year old stories of a teenaged Mitt and nothing about 0bama smoking pot, drinking excessively and snorting cocaine. Much less looking for those super genius college grades on his transcripts.

jukin3 on May 11, 2012 at 3:08 PM

It’s going to be interesting to see how the MSM (a/k/a the Obama PR team) handle the credentials issue. In 2008, we heard over and over and over again how incredibly smart Obama was — he went to Harvard Law, you know! He was president of the Law Review! Obama’s vast intelligence was supposed to compensate for his lack of experience. Plus, Obama was running against John McCain, a guy who’d finished at the bottom of his class at Annapolis, and had no graduate degrees — unlike brilliant Obama, who went to Harvard Law, you know!

Now the Republican challenger is Mitt Romney, holder of both a law degree and an MBA from Harvard. And unlike Obama, who has admitted he needed Aff*rmative Act*on to get his Ivy credentials, Romney reportedly had a near-perfect GPA at Harvard. Obama is still hiding his grades from Harvard (and Columbia and Occidental too).