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Quiz 46 – Estimating numbers

Estimating numbers in flocks of birds is a skill that birders need to practice, but we rarely get a chance to test ourselves. We see a flock, guess the total number, and write it down. We might be off by a large margin, but we’ll never know.

Here is a quiz (and more to come) that will give you a chance to test your accuracy. These are lentils, photographed against a white background, but they simulate birds pretty well, I think.

One estimating technique you can try is to count the “flock” in segments. That is, count ten to see what a group of ten looks like, then superimpose that group across the flock, counting in groups of ten. Or you can just “eyeball” the flock of lentils and take a guess. Good luck, and feel free to offer suggestions or encouragement in the comments.

Test your number sense

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These are great exercises, and I really need to practice this skill. This is a cool way to do it.

My only quibble: What level of precision is necessary? To my mind, there is no significant difference between the numbers 90 and 100 in this context. Even 100-120 are within the expected margin of error, I would think. If my estimates of birds in flight were regularly within 50% of the actual number, I’d call myself skilled enough. Am I setting the bar too low?

Hi Tim, Thanks for the feedback. I agree, if you’re getting within 50% consistently that’s pretty good. I did try to avoid making these quizzes too “nit-picky” with answer choices as close together as 90 and 100, so I’ve just fixed that one. I also added “hints” that show up to give instant feedback on which way you missed, as I think that is helpful also.

This is great! I regularly do waterfowl surveys and have volunteer citizen scientists that help. I have used these exercises for years to hone my skills and encourage my teams to do the same. The more precise the count the better the data… I guess I just like to set the bar high. One twist I like to throw at people (myself included) to challenge them is to use mix sizes and colors i.e. mixture of pinto beans, lentils, rice etc. tossed onto a gray background.
These exercises are great because I don’t have to count them and I don’t have to pick up the mess.