India is all set to launch its first ICBM
-- the Agni V, which has a range of 5,000 km plus, on Wednesday (April
18) and a successful launch will be a significant achievement for the
Indian DRDO (Defence Research and Development Organization) which
embarked upon the IGMDP (Integrated Guided Missile Development Project)
in 1983 under the stewardship of then PM Indira Gandhi.

India, it may be recalled, was under severe U.S.-led technological
sanctions at the time and three decades after the nascent steps taken
with the short-range Prithvi missile, it is a matter of considerable
satisfaction for the domestic scientific and strategic community that
the Agni V is on the anvil.

The technical characteristics of the three-stage solid propellant Agni V
merit notice and are testimony to the commendable strides made by the
Indian DRDO and its affiliates in the public and private sector in the
many diverse engineering and industrial disciplines that contribute to
the design and production of a ballistic missile.

Agni V can carry a one-ton payload (meaning a nuclear warhead) and is
configured for carrying multiple warheads which can be guided to
separate targets independently -- thereby giving the missile a MIRV
(multiple independently targeted re-entry vehicle) capability. This is a
major technological achievement combining as it does guidance and
control with miniaturisation of the warhead. Thus, Agni V will be fitted
with a PBCV (post boost control vehicle) and a rigorous post-launch
technical evaluation will establish the credibility of the missile and
its MIRV index.
Indian metallurgy has also contributed in no small measure and it has
been suggested that the use of carbon composite in the second-stage
motor has led to significant weight reduction and improvement in overall
performance. Considerable mobility and time criticality is in-built
with the use of solid propellant and this allows the Agni V to be
launched from a mobile rail-road platform. However, these are features
that will be proven at a later stage -- after the successful completion
of the first test.

The April 18 test would be a significant technology demonstrator and its
strategic implications need to be placed in appropriate context. When
inducted into India's strategic forces command (SFC), a proven ICBM
capability would enhance India's deterrent capability. This in turn
would enhance the credibility of Delhi's No First Use (NFU) commitment
as regards the use of nuclear weapons. The Indian doctrine is predicated
on not being the first party to use the apocalyptic nuclear weapon --
but conveying to its potential adversaries who chose to go down this
path that the retaliation which will inevitably follow will be
‘massive'.

The run-up to the Agni V missile launch has seen many references to
China and the fact that with a 5,000-km missile India will now be able
to 'balance' its imposing neighbour. The reality is more modest. China
already has a range of proven ICBM in its inventory that straddle the
5,000 to 10,000 km bandwidth. India cannot acquire any equivalence with
China in the WMD domain, nor is it warranted. More importantly, Beijing
has a geo-political missile in Rawalpindi and the scope and depth of the
Sino-Pak nuclear-missile cooperation adds to the Indian security
challenge.

As and when Agni V moves from technological proficiency to assured,
credible and proven operational induction -- maybe by 2014 -- India will
move towards acquiring that elusive mutuality it seeks with China. More
generous claims or exaggerated interpretation about what the maiden
launch of the Agni V implies would be premature and imprudent.

(C. Uday Bhaskar is the former Director of the New Delhi-based National
Maritime Foundation. The views expressed in the column are his own. This
article first appeared on the Reuters on April 18, 2012)