2004: three-peat!

For the third year in a row, StiffArmTrophy.com correctly projected the outcome of the vote.

We made our final projection 90 minutes prior to the presentation show on ESPN based on 223 actual votes we found and tabulated. Our final projection at 3:30 p.m. (pacific time) on December 11, 2003:

Our final projection: Matt Leinart by 2.7% over Adrian Peterson. Last year's winner, Jason White, will place third. Helix High teammates Reggie Bush and Alex Smith are functionally tied, though we believe Reggie will edge out Alex. This year, with your help, we tracked and counted 223 H------ ballots that contained 591 votes.

As you can see below, we pretty much nailed it; Leinart exceeded our projection by just 1.6% of the vote.

Thanks for your help!With the help of dozens of volunteers across America, we built the biggest and best projection with 223 declared votes listed on the Big Chart of Votes.

The H------ Memorial Trophy is a registered trademark of the H------ Memorial Trophy Trust. This site is not affiliated with the Trust, not even a little. We're not even using the H------ word, since they don't want us to. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.

Got a voter tip?

Huh? What is this?

There are 926 official voters. Many of them are sportswriters who will reveal their picks in the media well before the trophy is awarded. We'll collect those picks here, and attempt to project the winner. Our methodology.

What's this "Stiff Arm" business?

Well, we're unable to use the H------ word since the official trophy organization threatened to sue us for using the H------ word or even showing pictures of the little bronze statue. So, from here on out, it's the Stiff Arm Trophy. Stupid, but true.

Does it work?

So far, so good. In 2002, we projected Carson Palmer as the winner, and Brad Banks as the runner-up based on 127 actual ballots declared. We had the top five correct (though we had Larry Johnson at #5, not #3.) 2002 details.

In 2003, we nailed the top four - in order. On average, we were only 1.5% of the vote off from exactly calling the vote percentages for Jason White, Larry Fitzgerald, Eli Manning, and Chris Perry. We found 175 actual declared ballots. 2003 details.

In 2004, we nailed the top three in order - Matt Leinart, Adrian Peterson, and Jason White. We found 223 actual declared ballots that included 591 votes. 2004 details.

In 2005, we projected correctly the top five in order - Reggie Bush, Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Brady Quinn, Michael Robinson. We found 209 actual declared ballots that included 529 votes, and were able to project accurately that Reggie Bush would be the biggest winner of all-time. 2005 details.

In 2006, we found 136 actual declared ballots that included 353 votes and we projected correctly the top three finalists in order - Troy Smith, Darren McFadden, Brady Quinn. 2006 details.

In 2007, we found 249 actual declared ballots that included 685 votes and we projected correctly the top four in order - Tim Tebow, Darren McFadden, Colt Brennan, Chase Daniel. 2007 details.

In 2008, we found 249 actual declared ballots that included 670 votes and we correctly projected that Sam Bradford would win - while Tim Tebow would get the most first-place votes. 2008 details.