2012 Mock Draft

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Sunday, December 16, 2012

2013 NBA Mock Draft

New 2013 NBA Mock. I didn't factor in any international players into the second round because I haven't studied many of them yet. Plus, I'd like to put in as many collegiate players as possible into the mocks. Team needs are loosely taken into account - moreso near the top of the draft.

Players leaving/staying were made at my own discretion and are purely speculation.

1. Charlotte Bobcats - FR Archie Goodwin, SG, Kentucky

The first overall pick is up for grabs. Honestly - try doing a mock draft right now. Each pick in the top 5 you question yourself if the player is worth that high of a selection. At this point, nobody has earned much. Goodwin has outstanding physical gifts and a knack for scoring and getting to the line. The Bobcats will need a scoring wing to pair with MGK if they ever want to win.

2. Cleveland Cavaliers - FR Nerlens Noel, C, Kentucky

Noel has been a mixed bag this year. If you had Anthony Davis level expectations you would be disappointed. If you were like me and had a lot of questions with his game - you should be seeing some reasons to be optimistic. Noel isn't as smart or as tough as Davis on defense, but is still making tons of plays and rebounding the ball. He has shown good energy and better body language than he did in high school. Offensively, he is raw but sports a positive assist to turnover ratio. He can get to the rim but needs to finish stronger and more under control.

3. Toronto Raptors - FR Anthony Bennett, PF, UNLV

Bennett has been dominant his freshman season thus far and will take on a even bigger role with Moser out. He does a good job setting screens and getting open off of them - showing a nice mid-range and deep jumper. He can also face up and get to the rim where he finishes with authority. He shows a post game but needs to get better at utilizing his big frame. Defensively you can say the same thing - he projects as just a solid defender - but has been a great rebounder.

Toronto is ready to end the Bargnani era and Bennett would spell the end of that. Bennett would fit well in their pick and roll offense and give them a different look from it than what Valanciunas presents. Also, Toronto wouldn't mind having a Canadian on their roster - and would hope to add another one the following year (Wiggins).

4. Washington Wizards - SO Cody Zeller, F/C, Indiana

Zeller has been great this year for #1 Indiana, but that has not lifted the concerns about his length and explosiveness. Zeller can look very average at times in the post when he can't create separation. He struggles to get his own shot and finish near the hoop. Zeller's outstanding skill level, footwork, and energy still make him a nice prospect - just not an elite one.

5. Phoenix Suns - 1992 Rudy Gobert, C, Cholet

Gobert just recently announced that he would like to play in the NBA next year. He's a project but has the size and athleticism to turn out to be a good one.

6. Sacramento Kings - FR Marcus Smart, PG, Oklahoma State

Smart is one of my favorite players in this draft and a leader who can step in and turn the culture of a team around. He possesses natural leadership skills, great athleticism and size, and a advanced understanding of how to change speeds. Smart is a stat stuffer who helps out in all areas of the game and has the ability to be either a great scorer or facilitator at the point guard spot.

7. New Orleans Hornets - FR Shabazz Muhammad, SG, UCLA

Muhammad has struggled early on and needs to turn it up soon. He had an injury and missed practice so its understandable, but as the season goes on that excuse will go away. And the UCLA excuse doesnt work for me - it was much more evident it was the system that was holding back Westbrook and Holiday. For Muhammad its his lack of ball handling skills and ability to create separation. He has to work very hard for each bucket and relies too much on his strength and energy. Defensively, he looks slow and out of shape.

8. Detroit Pistons - SO Otto Porter, SF, Georgetown

Porter has been great for Georgetown and his most impressive revelation for his stock so far has been his shooting ability. His high IQ, defense, passing skills, and toughness were known - but his silky smooth jumper from the mid-range area has now started progressing into a solid 3-pt shot. For a guy with average explosiveness for a lottery wing, his ability to knock down the jumper is crucial for his offensive success.

9. Orlando Magic - SO Michael Carter-Williams, PG, Syracuse

Carter-Williams is the most dynamic player on the board at this point and offers a lot to be excited about. He also offers a lot of questions. Is he mature and a good enough leader to run the point? Can he get into the paint and finish with contact? How will he defend outside of the 2-3 zone? Will he fare better than the last couple of Syracuse players? His height is helping mask a lot of his weaknesses at this point. I still like him though and as Syracuse plays tougher opponents the answers to these questions will become more clear. The one concern I dont have that most actually do is his shooting - he has always had a good touch and its starting to come along the past few games.

10. Houston Rockets - FR Glenn Robinson III, SF, Michigan

The hype on Glenn Robinson III hasn't gotten rolling yet with him stuck next to two ball dominant guards. And perhaps that is best for him - like the rest of the SFs in this draft, GRIII isn't a guy who wants to be "the guy". He's perfectly content playing his role - knocking down jumpers, rebounding, and playing defense. The thing is, he has been incredibly efficient doing it so far as a freshman on one of the best teams in the nation. You can easily carve out a long NBA career doing what he is done so far.

11. Philadelphia 76ers - FR Ben McLemore, SG, Kansas

McLemore has already stepped into the main scoring role for the Jayhawks and he hasn't even started hitting threes yet. McLemore does a great job getting open for shots off screens and sneaks in for backdoor alley-oop plays every now and then to show off his athleticism. He has the size, athleticism, and the shooting ability for the shooting guard position. He is kind of like Bradley Beal last year in the sense that it is tough to go wrong with him. His floor seems like a solid starter and he offer the potential to be one of the better shooting guards in the game. He could end up going in the top 5.

12. Portland Trailblazers - SR CJ McCollum, G, Lehigh

CJ McCollum has lived up to his senior hype in the scoring column - already going off for 30+ points a couple of times. He gets good separation for his jumpshot with his crossover and has silky smooth body control when going up for his shot. McCollum is a great shooter and projects as instant offense off the bench at the next level. He isn't the athlete that Portland's Damian Lillard is and it prevents him from being the playmaker Lillard is. I don't think McCollum will make the full transition to point guard, but will be able to run it off the bench. He is a student of the game and a very hard worker.

13. Dallas Mavericks - FR Alex Poythress, F, Kentucky

With his near 70% field goal shooting and 0.6/3 assist to turnover ratio, its clear just looking at the stats that Poythress is much more of a power forward right now. Poythress is able to defend multiple positions well which is a big part of his appeal and if you can defend the perimeter like he can then there is hope that he can make the transition on offense. Even if he doesn't, Poythress has enough size to be a combo forward in the NBA and the attitude and work ethic that will keep him in the league. He's not a top 5 pick though. I don't see it in his skillset and its definitely not his type of mentality. He went to Kentucky so he didn't have to be "the guy" - Poythress prefers to be a role player.

Everyone is well aware of McAdoo's struggles this year in his new role. The biggest problem with him has been his strength. He is getting pushed around inside, has been unable to get under control, and it is causing a lot of turnovers. He isn't the physical presence North Carolina needs him to be. He still shows good upside on offense thanks to his ability to move without the ball, his quickness, and his soft touch. If he gets stronger, I also think he will be able to start showing a forming post game. Defensively he is smart and is able to draw charges with his quick feet, but doesn't prove to be much of a threat. And he gets pushed around on the glass.

15. Indiana Pacers - SO Trey Burke, PG, Michigan

Trey Burke has followed up his impressive freshman season with another one so far - leading Michigan to an undefeated record. Burke has drawn comparisons to a poor man's Chris Paul and its accurate. He is a balanced point guard, able to both distribute and score. He has a high BBIQ and takes the team and the game on his shoulders. He understands Michigan's complex offense so well. He can overdribble at times and does need to be more of a factor on defense. The only thing holding him back from a top ten selection is his athleticism. And averaging a combined 4.7 rebounds/blocks/and steals brings up some concerns among stat junkies.

16. Milwaukee Bucks - SO Alex Len, C, Maryland

The hype around Alex Len right now reminds me of the Kosta Koufos hype when he first got to Ohio State. Legit seven footer with offensive skills, blocks shots, can hit the jumper and score with his back to the basket. Its an intriguing set of skills for sure, but the most important factor for centers in today's NBA is defense. That is how you get on the court. Len is a good shot blocker (he is more explosive than Koufos), but lacks an understanding and commitment on the defensive end. Besides Kentucky, Maryland hasn't played in any big games so Len is still living off the hype from his first game. But come ACC play he will have to earn the top 5 billing analysts are placing on him.

17. Boston Celtics - SO Tony Mitchell, F, North Texas

I just wrote about Mitchell and this part of the draft would be a good spot for him. His production hasn't been the best up to this point. He might be the best athlete in the draft, but seems to have false beliefs that he is a small forward. If he commits to power forward, he can be very good. Its a high risk/high reward situation in the lottery. It this spot, it would be all reward.

18. Minnesota Timberwolves (to Phoenix) - SR Mason Plumlee, F/C, Duke

Wrote this recently - "There is part of me that wants to rank Plumlee lower, but its tough with the season he is having. He very well could be National Player of the Year this season and his stock should start soaring. It won't surprise me if he ends up in the lottery. I don't want to split hairs though with his ranking - my main point is if I were a GM, I'd spend my top 20 pick somewhere else. I'd much rather take Jeff Withey outside the top 20 then spend a top 20 pick on Mason. Nothing against him, he's having a great season, I just question how it all translates to the next level. His offense is a lot of face up looks, but he can't shoot. He relies on the drive, but its going to be hard to keep NBA defenses honest if he can't consistent hit the 15 footer. And his post game is still based on his athleticism. And he doesn't even establish deep post position enough to take advantage of it."
19. Utah Jazz - JR Ray McCallum, PG, Detroit

McCallum is an underrated prospect. CJ McCollum gets all the hype because of his scoring, but all Ray McCallum has done this season is prove he can suddenly switch from a point guard to shot hunter to provide his team with much needed scoring. He isn't as good at it as McCollum but McCallum also isn't a combo guard. He is a pure point who has proven he knows how to lead a team and create shots for his teammates. McCallum looks like a sure bet to be at least a top backup point guard, but could easily turn into a solid starter.

20. Denver Nuggets - SR Jeff Withey, C, Kansas

Withey is leading a suffocating Kansas defense. I wrote this recently -

"The second best senior? It sounds weird, but Withey has an elite ability to affect games on the defensive end that should make him a good player in the pros. He moves so fluidly for a 7 footer and gets off the court quickly. He has been Kansas's best player so far, even becoming more of a threat on offense. Kansas can't get much penetration so Withey has been a key factor on offense - being relied upon as a part of their inside/out game. He has shown quick moves in the post and has been more aggressive this season. Withey isn't the most talented senior, but he might be the surest bet to walk onto a NBA team and contribute right away."
21, Golden State Warriors (to Utah) - SR Jackie Carmichael, PF, Illinois State

Jackie Carmichael has been a huge revelation to me this year. He has a prototypical body for a four man and is more explosive than he looks. He's actually extremely nimble on his feet and does a great job defending pick and rolls on the perimeter. He plays the game offensively like a 10 year NBA vet - setting good screens, showing great patience in the post, hitting from mid-range, and cleaning the offensive boards. He is a good passer and has a post game. At this point, it wouldn't be crazy to call him the most NBA ready power foward in the draft.

22. Brooklyn Nets - JR Andre Roberson, PF, Colorado

Roberson has looked bad this year trying to show his perimeter skills and that is taking away all the attention from what he can do. He is still posting great rebounding numbers and generating a ton of blocks and steals. He isn't a small foward, but would that have even been the best fit for him? He can be a poor man's Marion off the bench.

23. Chicago Bulls - JR Gorgui Dieng, C, Louisville

Dieng has been out the last month with a broken wrist and he has been missed - not only for his great defense, but for his offense. Dieng is a big help facilitating the offense from the post and had flipped his turnover ratio upside down from previous years. He should be back in the next couple of weeks.

24. Atlanta Hawks - SO BJ Young, SG, Arkansas

Young has proven to be one of the better one on one players in college basketball when it comes to getting to the rim. He has excellent body control and footwork on his way to the rim and is able to manipulate his way through defenders and hang in the air to finish with contact. While his ability to get to the basket and finish is elite, his shooting has taken a step back this year and he isn't getting a chance to show his ability to run the point guard in Arkansas' 3 guard offense.

With North Carolina struggling, it is easy to sour on their top prospects and place the blame on them. And you can knock Bullock for his aggressiveness - only getting to the line 1.4 times a game. But that isnt his game and isnt what he will be expected to do in the NBA. He cant carry UNC, but in terms of doing the little things, he continues to show elite qualities of a role player. His 3-pt shot is hitting at an all time high, as he's making 43% from behind the arc, and it looks great coming out of his hand. His assists and steals are also up. He could be an immediate contributor to a playoff team.

26. Miami Heat (to Cleveland) - SO LeBryan Nash, SF, Oklahoma State

LeBryan Nash is an interesting player. He struggled last year trying to show off his perimeter skills and has made it a point this year to play more inside and get to the free throw line. He's getting to the line nearly 2.5 times per game more than his freshman year. Operating inside of 18 feet, he has looked nearly unstoppable and has shown a variety of different ways to hurt the opposition. He has also shown solid court vision but his A/TO is hurt by his propensity to force things and take bad shots. Defensively, Nash has a reputation as a stopper but struggles to keep quicker perimeter players in front of him. He might be stuck in between positions like an Al Thornton type but if he blossoms, he could be the next Caron Butler.

27. Los Angeles Clippers - JR Victor Oladipo, G/F, Indiana

Oladipo has been arguably Indiana's best player this season while turning himself into some kind of folk hero. His defense is something that can't be captured in a scouting report - nor can his energy. He has Tony Allen-type defense skills. And his defense has turned into quick offense for him, enabling him to get out on the break for big thunderous dunks while showcasing his elite athleticism. He is shooting a ridiculous 65% from the field this year - up from just 47% the year before. I predicted a breakout year from Oladipo, but the season he is having is something special.

28. New York Knicks - JR Patric Young, F/C, Florida

After two subpar years, Patric Young has started to show some signs of life this season - upping his rebound totals and finally blocking some shots. Still, he needed a early season benching to jumpstart him and after last night's game, it looks like he could be starting to get too comfortable again. He has a NBA body and moves his feet well defensively, so he should at least be a solid big off the bench in the league. I highly doubt at this point he will ever become anything more.

29. San Antonio Spurs - 1994 Dario Saric, F, Cibona Zagreb

Saric's season is just getting underway.

30. Oklahoma City Thunder - JR Mike Moser, F, UNLV

Mike Moser got off to a shaky start this year before getting hurt. It was an adjustment for him to get used to playing with Anthony Bennett and when he comes back this time, he will also have to adjust to playing with Khem Birch. Bennett has taken over as the star of the Rebels and Birch will play center, so Moser will have a chance to focus on playing the perimeter.

Leslie continues to be a mixed bag for the Wolfpack, looking like a guy who will never grow to "get it". This is his junior year and at this time, he should be dominating competition with his athleticism alone. Yet that hasn't been the case as NC State has been a disappointment and Leslie is stuck in neutral. He still lacks any reliable way to score on offense and doesn't play smart defense. And he has failed to provide any kind of leadership on a NC State team begging for a leader - he instead plays more like a freshman than Purvis, Lewis, or Warren.

32. Cleveland Cavaliers - SR Elijah Johnson, PG, Kansas

I was so busy trying to point out Elijah Johnson's weaknesses over the summer - saying he won't be able to be "the guy", he isn't aggressive, he doesnt get to the rim - to recognize his strengths and what he can bring to a team. Elijah Johnson is a shot maker and also has a great physical profile on defense. He is excellent off the catch and shoot once he gets his feet get set. I still question his ability to take advantage of his defensive attributes, as he has never shown good awareness. But this season that hasn't been as apparent with him guarding the oppositions point guard more. His main trouble was defending off ball and understanding how to see "ball" and "man" at all times. Johnson really needs to get to the line more though - 1.4 times a game won't cut it. He's perfectly capable.

33. Toronto Raptors - JR Jamaal Franklin, SG, San Diego State

Franklin is a guy who coaches will love one second and hate the next. He tries to do everything on offense even though he is limited by his ball handling abilities. He turns it over a lot and takes a lot of bad shots. But he also works very hard, rebounds like a big man, and can score in bunches. He is a highlight reel finisher and is a streaky outside shooter. Right now, he needs to get his 3-pt% back up because that will need to be a big part of his game in the NBA. Being a 23% 3-pt shooter will have him averaging 20ppg in the D-League real quick.