Size of sheep flock on the rise

A RISE in the size of the UK breeding flock last year, along with a good lambing rate and likely lower ewe lamb retention, is forecast to lead to a supply of 13.8 million head during the next season, according to HCC senior economic analyst Jane Connor.

A RISE in the size of the UK breeding flock last year, along with a good lambing rate and likely lower ewe lamb retention, is forecast to lead to a supply of 13.8 million head during the next season, according to HCC senior economic analyst Jane Connor.

Although a return to pre-foot-and-mouth disease levels of 15.2 million a year is unlikely to be achieved again in the short or medium term, she says supply has shown a modest rate of growth from

13.1 million in 2002-3 to a forecast 13.8 million in 2003-4 and 14.1 million in 2004-5.

"This is despite the fact that lamb prices throughout 2002 were the highest for five years and look set to remain firm for this year.

"However, to offset good prices uncertainty about the future - especially about CAP reform - means many producers have adopted a wait and see policy before making decisions about future flock sizes," she said.

The UK breeding flock is forecast to rise just 1% by December this year and remain static during 2004.

Increased lamb availability is also good news on the export front, especially with continuing strong demand from the Continent.

Last year lamb exports recovered to 56,000 tonnes carcass weight and could reach 67,000 tonnes in 2004 - back to more than 65% of pre-foot-and-mouth levels.