* Democratic congressional candidate Cheri Bustos has released new poll numbers which purport to show her race against Republican freshman Bobby Schilling is neck and neck. From the pollster, GBA Strategies…

Democrat Cheri Bustos is surging in her race against incumbent Republican Congressman Bobby Schilling in Illinois’ new 17th congressional district. A new survey1 of 600 likely voters shows Bustos has closed the gap dramatically since advertising in the campaign began, pulling to within 45 – 47 percent—well within the survey’s margin of error.

But the pollster then did some weird voodoo, which makes me uncomfortable…

In a vote simulation where undecided voters are allocated by their partisanship, Bustos and Schilling are completely tied 49 - 49 percent.

I really wish campaigns wouldn’t do that stuff without at least offering up some detailed explanations. It undermines their numbers.

* Schilling released numbers last month showing him leading the race by 13 points, 50-37. But the new polling shows President Obama is doing very well in the district…

Survey of 600 likely voters conducted by GBA Strategies September 24-26, 2012. Respondents were reached on land lines and cell phones. Results have a margin of error of +/- 4.0 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence interval.

Pretty simple–Schilling is a hard-working guy who built his success the hard way, and people respect that. Bustos, on the other hand, made it where she is because the machine, and her godfather Dick Durbin, backed backed her. There are a lot of people on both sides who recognize the difference in candidate quality.

By the same token, there are plenty of R’s in the area who have one or two Dem’s they pull the ballet for.

there was a lot of bad stuff in that oppo file about schilling you posted so that this pac wouldn’t have to take a cookie cutter ad they’re probably running in 8 other districts. Democrats seem to be spending all of their energy in Illinois boosting duckworth and punching walsh instead of trying to also pick up these other pieces.

Bustos fan—It means that President Obama is the top of the Dem ticket. In the poll he is possibly leading his presidential opponent by double digits. The poll has Bustos possibly neck and neck with Schilling, her congressional opponent. (Not double digits ahead.) Therefore she is vastly underperforming Obama. Obama seems to be getting Dem and Indy voters that are not translating down to Bustos. Not good news for her.

It seems odd that only 5% are undecided in the Obama race, and that the undecided in the Bustos race is 5% or less. That is an amazing amount of name recognition at this point for a new candidate. Good for her!