Michael Warren aims to enlighten us with his predictions for 2018

The ancient Chinese philosopher Lao Tzu said, “Those who have knowledge don’t predict. Those who predict don’t have knowledge”

Performance review

As I venture forth with my third annual attempt to foreshadow events, let us test Lao Tzu’s premise with a performance review of my 2017 predictions. I score myself nine correct out of 12.

As predicted, Donald Trump did not change his behaviour once in office of the American presidency. He continues to tweet, bring us closer to nuclear war and abandon all environmental leadership even in the face of another year of hottest average temperature ever.

I thought Russian President Vladimir Putin would test the resolve of NATO by trying to reclaim more former Soviet Union territory. He didn’t. But as predicted, the U.K. economy is suffering under the prospect of leaving the European Union. Inflation has surged. The pound is down, as are exports and real estate prices.

I forecasted the demise of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s electoral reform initiative and the U.S. approval of the Keystone XL pipeline. But my caution about “a host of social, medical and political startup problems” with the legalization of recreational marijuana was mostly premature. That’s for 2018.

Finally, I identified Andrew Sheer as a finalist in the Conservative leadership race and said Jagmeet Singh would emerge as the national NDP leader. I also predicted the NDP win in British Columbia over Christie Clark’s Liberal government.

So what about this coming year?

The future of work

In 2018 we will hear much more about computers and artificial intelligence replacing humans in the workplace. The chair of Trudeau’s Economic Growth Council, Dominic Barton, predicts 40 per cent of the existing jobs in Canada will be replaced by automation over the next decade. The political rhetoric will shift from “helping the middle class” to the broader need for a new “social contract” and a guaranteed annual income to prevent worsening unemployment and income inequality.

Trudeau & Company

Trudeau’s attempt to use a “mandate letter tracker” to measure progress of his cabinet has instead served to confuse (deliberately?) the picture about campaign promises kept and dropped. He will either move it off the government website to a Liberal party site, or abandon the idea altogether.

The fate of NAFTA will likely end up in the hands of the U.S. Congress over Trump’s objections. Fortunately many senators and representatives are aware of the negative impact on their state’s economy if NAFTA were to fail.

The Trump presidency

The special counsel investigating Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election will assume centre stage in 2018. Robert Mueller will bring forward evidence of compromising links between Trump and Russia and likely a charge of obstruction of justice. Trump will fight the allegations and may even try to pardon himself if he’s legally cornered.

The 2018 U.S. midterm elections will help to determine Trump’s fate. If the Republicans lose control of the Senate and Democrats reduce the GOP margin in the House there will be a much greater appetite to begin impeachment proceedings against Trump. Trump’s sub-40 per cent approval rating is a harbinger of widespread GOP losses.

Expect Trump to visit Canada for the first time in June as part of the G7 summit in the luxury resort at La Malbaie in Quebec where embarrassing demonstrations can be contained.

Russia and China

The two countries will quickly fill the global influence vacuum left by a mercurial Trump. Both countries will play more prominent roles as intermediaries in Middle Eastern and African conflicts.

China’s economy will continue to grow at twice the rate of the U.S. and stay on track to eclipse it in 10 years.

North Korea

North Korea will become a nuclear nation with missiles capable of reaching the mainland of U.S. and Canada. This will renew a divisive debate in Ottawa about joining the U.S. missile defence program, ending in the status quo.

Sexual harassment

This was the year of brave “silence breakers” who came forward to accuse powerful men in government and corporations of sexual harassment, assault and worse. They were named Persons of the Year by Time magazine. The Me Too movement will peak in 2018, cementing a cultural sea change. We will see a high-profile tightening of private and public sector rules governing sexual conduct in the workplace.

Ontario’s election

The Ontario provincial election in June will be closer than the current polls suggest. Progressive Conservative Leader Patrick Brown has enhanced his chances of winning by coming forward with a centralist agenda. It includes tax cuts, hydro rebates, day-care refunds and more mental health spending. If Brown can overcome the mistrust that stems from his social conservative past, he will oust the long-in-office Liberals.

Housing prices

Governments in Canada need to slowly rein in and deflate housing prices in major centres across the country. The value of residential housing has grown so much in Canada that it is now much higher as a share of GDP (eight per cent) than it was in the United States at its peak (five per cent) before the housing sector there went bust. If housing prices continue to climb, our bubble will burst and be followed by a serious hit to consumer confidence, household equity and our economic growth.

The state of democracy

Across the Western world democracy seems under threat. Our market economy seems stronger and more dynamitic than our democratic institutions.

The influence and power of global “market dictatorships” is growing dramatically. Giants like Google and Facebook are rivalling the ability of some democracies to regulate them in the interests of their citizens. Expect this issue to become more prominent and pressing in 2018.

Greatest challenges of 2018

The two most pressing problems facing the Western world remain the same as they were in 2017.

First, the globe is experiencing more frequent and severe wildfires, floods and hurricanes. Despite this growing evidence, there’s still a reluctance to act aggressively enough to contain climate change.

Second, income and wealth disparity continues to leave the working and middle classes with a dwindling share of economies in many Western countries. It’s fuelling the rise of political instability and political extremists.

But let’s remember, it’s always darkest just before the light. Have a happy and peaceful new year.