UNITED STATES OFFERS WORLDWIDE ATTRACTION

A few weeks ago, a friend and I started talking with people seated at adjacent tables in a restaurant frequented by tourists.

On one side sat a husband and wife from Sweden who owned a small grocery store. On the other side sat a group of Italians, occupations undetermined.

We had arrived at the restaurant in a car designed and engineered in Japan and manufactured by Americans in a suburb of Detroit. Earlier we'd listened to some music on stereo equipment manufactured in half a dozen Asian countries.

The next day at the office I was told that the 1990s are going to be the decade of the global economy.

Holy Toledo! I thought.

My reaction was something like a colleague's who had seen The Wall Street Journal quote someone as saying: "The world is getting more global."

He said he thought the round vs. flat-earth question had been settled 500 years ago.

'GLOBAL' ECONOMY MISLEADING

The point is not that we are entering a global economy -- we've had that for some time. The point is that in the '90s almost every U.S. business, large and small, will feel the impact of international competition and trade.

If trends continue, there could be some unexpected results. Japan will grow stronger, for example, and the Four Tigers will become more like Japan.

Does that mean that before the decade is over Florida developers will be looking to Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan for capital? I think so.

Everybody is expecting that Eastern Europe will provide a tremendous new market in the decade, and it could become that. But early indications are that there will be more barter deals than cash transactions in the area -- at least for a while.

Does that mean Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, Czechoslovakia and Poland will join the international bidding as low-cost assemblers of high-tech products? I think some will.

It is obvious that South Florida will not be able to compete in this international market as a low-cost producer of anything. It must add value, and quality education is the key.

Those are obvious trends. What about big surprises? I think we've got one possibility right in our back yard.

ECONOMIC POTENTIAL STAGGERING

Can you imagine the economic potential of a post-Castro Cuba? The synergism between Cuban immigrants in South Florida and relatives and friends left behind could be powerful.

Think about it: We'll probably test the idea before the decade is over.

In Europe, I think the country to watch may be Ireland. Enough U.S. firms have tiny toeholds that expansion there would be easy. They couldn't find a better work force, and the Irish don't consider Americans to be outsiders.

Germany will dominate the European continent, and firms that are comfortable doing business there will benefit.

Which brings us to a key question: Which U.S. companies will profit most from this coming decade of Europe?

My nominees would be some sleeping giants -- IBM, Exxon, Eastman Kodak and even Ford and General Motors. These companies have been in the multinational game for years; they know how to operate across country borders. And all except the car companies are the largest in their fields in the world.

With all the changes in the world this decade, this country won't lose its dominance. It is still the most envied, admired, feared and copied in the world.

That's why the Swedish and Italian tourists were at the restaurant the other night. That's why the Japanese go to Disney World. That's why the Eastern Europeans will be arriving here soon for fun and education.