Russia/Georgia Situation News & Updates

"¶5. (C) xxxxx said the key question the GOR was
trying to determine was whether the U.S. had given
Saakashvili the go-ahead. The GOR had expected the U.S. to
again convince Georgia to pull back and when that didn't
happen, it raised the question whether the U.S. had allowed
Georgia to go ahead. The GOR was questioning whether this
was a first step in the U.S.'s attempt to isolate or contain
Russia, and were waiting for America's reaction and
intentions."

GOR = Government of Russia

Very interesting to see that this is what the American ambassador was sending to Washington.

Sokhumi and Tskhinvali expressed concern over President Saakashvili’s remarks that “war is not yet over” and noted that this rhetoric was
not in line with his non-use of force pledge made in his address to the European Parliament on November 23.

In his second live TV phone-in with Georgians nationwide, broadcast on three TV stations on January 25, President Saakashvili said: “War is not yet
over… If we are consolidated and… if we continue development we will definitely win this war.” He said that it was one of the major achievements
that the term “occupation” in reference of Abkhazia and South Ossetia was establishing on the international arena. “Occupation always ends with
de-occupation,” he said.

“The statements of this kind are an open call for the preparation of a new military aggression against Abkhazia and South Ossetia,” Apsnypress
news agency quoted the breakaway region’s Foreign Ministry as saying on January 26.

On Tuesday, yesterday, Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili announced Russia was a “crocodile” which was ready to “swallow” his
country, Russian media reports this information quoting Georgian PIK TV channel (the First Caucasian). Saakashvli answered to the public questions
during the three hours live show.

And he said Russia deserved the terrorist bombing at the airport, saying ``it's the boomerang effect of the Russian policy in the Caucasus``...

Georgian Foreign Ministry said reported deployment of short-range ballistic missiles, Tochka-U (SS-21 Scarab B) and other offensive weapons in
breakaway South Ossetia “points clearly to the Russian Federation's plans to launch open military aggression against Georgia.”

Interfax news agency reported earlier on January 24, quoting unnamed source from Russia’s Southern Military District, that tactical-operational
missile unit with Tochka-U rockets with maximum range of 120 kilometers had been deployed in the Russian military base in South Ossetia. The same news
agency reported in December, also quoting unnamed Russian military source, that Russia had deployed Smerch (Tornado) multiple-launch rocket systems in
vicinity of Tskhinvali.

The Georgian Foreign Ministry expressed protest over the deployment of the team of specialists from the state-owned Russian Railway in
breakaway Abkhazia to repair sections of Abkhaz railway, saying that Russia’s goal was “to create military infrastructure.”

Sokhumi and Tskhinvali expressed concern over President Saakashvili’s remarks that “war is not yet over” and noted that this rhetoric was
not in line with his non-use of force pledge made in his address to the European Parliament on November 23.

In his second live TV phone-in with Georgians nationwide, broadcast on three TV stations on January 25, President Saakashvili said: “War is not yet
over… If we are consolidated and… if we continue development we will definitely win this war.” He said that it was one of the major achievements
that the term “occupation” in reference of Abkhazia and South Ossetia was establishing on the international arena. “Occupation always ends with
de-occupation,” he said.

“The statements of this kind are an open call for the preparation of a new military aggression against Abkhazia and South Ossetia,” Apsnypress
news agency quoted the breakaway region’s Foreign Ministry as saying on January 26.

On Tuesday, yesterday, Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili announced Russia was a “crocodile” which was ready to “swallow” his
country, Russian media reports this information quoting Georgian PIK TV channel (the First Caucasian). Saakashvli answered to the public questions
during the three hours live show.

And he said Russia deserved the terrorist bombing at the airport, saying ``it's the boomerang effect of the Russian policy in the Caucasus``...

Not that he's wrong about that... but still.

And he said Russia deserved the terrorist bombing at the airport, saying ``it's the boomerang effect of the Russian policy in the Caucasus``... Not
that he's wrong about that... but still.

So i assume you support an Islamic state of Chechnya? typical not what was i expecting from you, Chechnya rebels aren't rebels they are Islamic
terrorists, who want to form an Islamic state.

I give you a star for the update and find Mikhail Saakashvil statements similar to that of How Serbs feel about kosovo.

Saakashvili is a American puppet and a fool if he wants to start a new war again, he will awake the sleeping bear, just imagine Russians forces
marching down through whole eupore and South Ossetia.

If Saakashvili attacks South Ossetia again it may start a world war 3.

Saakashvilli is already a "has-been" on the international political arena. Small despots like him thrive on international attention, but alas the
world has quickly forgetten this pathetic joker. His 15 minutes of fame have passed. Even the US seems to have turned a blind eye on him, realizing
that he is too crazy to play with. He will say anything to get some attention, and hopefully for him some weapons and money. When it comes to action
however, he is powerless and he knows it. His recklessness resulted in South Ossetia and Abkhazia being lost by Georgia forever and the Georgian
military being redules to junk, and should he start another conflict there will not be anyone left to come running when he cries wolf.

I predict that in time he will become a sort of pariah on the international arena especially with idiotic statements like this, even if the US will
still continue to support him. He destroyed what little there was of democracy in Georgia, and the only way he can be removed now is through a coup.
What's left is to wait and see how long it takes for Georgians to get fed up with him enough to push him out.

While most of the world reacted with the predictable combination of shock and eagerness for more security measures in the wake of Monday’s suicide
bombing in the Moscow Domodedovo Airport, Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili is openly cheering it.

According to Saakashvili, the bombing was “payback” for the brief Russo-Georgian War of 2008, and that he had recently told Russian Prime Minister
Vladimir Putin that he would face “payback for his country for supporting separatists.”

Georgia is interested in the proposal by a group of U.S. senators that Tbilisi host a missile defense radar, Deputy Foreign Minister David
Dzhalagania said on Monday.

Four U.S. Republican senators - Jon Kyl, James Risch, Mark Kirk and James Inhofe - have sent a letter to Secretary of Defense Robert Gates asking him
to consider Georgia as a potential host for the TPY-2 missile defense radar.

"This is a new initiative so I can't say the Georgian side has formulated a concrete position on the matter," Dzhalagania said.

"This initiative is interesting in and of itself and it deserves attention from the point of view of regional security and stability."

Russia started renovating the Rokskiego tunnel - the only road linking Russia with South Ossetia, which has 2 years after the war, declared
independence. Poza Rosją niepodległości Osetii Południowej praktycznie nikt nie uznał, a Gruzja nazywa ją strefą okupowaną. Apart from
Russia, South Ossetia held virtually no one, and Georgia called it a zone occupied. Dlatego remont strategicznego tunelu budzi jej niepokój.
Therefore, repair of a strategic tunnel, it raises concern.

Strona rosyjska nie wspomina o wojskowym znaczeniu tunelu. The Russian side does not mention the military significance of the tunnel. Jednak w Tbilisi
wszelkie działania z nim związane uznawane są za nielegalne. But in Tbilisi, all activities associated with it are considered illegal.

So basically, Russia is renovating the tunnel under the mountain linking Georgia to Russia... and building a new one... and that makes Georgia
scared.

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The Georgian parliament has voted to recognize the 1864 genocide against the Circassian people in the Russian Empire. Givi Targamadze, head of the
parliamentary committee on security and defense, has proposed discussing acts of genocide against other North Caucasus peoples. The political calculus
behind Georgia’s actions is obvious. But the Georgian government seems to be underestimating the risks.

Now his government is facing a new problem: fading international interest in Georgia. The United States and Europe have had to reassess their
priorities in light of events in other regions as well as their own internal problems. Western attention is Georgia’s key economic and foreign
policy asset, and fighting for it would be the natural course of action. Provoking a conflict with Moscow is the only fail-safe way to win back that
attention.

The North Caucasus is the most volatile region in Russia and Moscow’s biggest headache. The Georgian government was certainly aware of that when it
aimed its latest blow. Any mention of genocide generates a huge international reaction and guarantees much attention given the nature of today’s
information environment and how widespread the humanitarian ideology is.

The proximity of the region in question to the site of the next Winter Olympics gives the claim even more publicity. Tibet employed a similar tactic
shortly before the Beijing Olympics.

Surprisingly, Georgia does not seem to expect this move to boomerang. Although destabilization of the North Caucasus might give Georgian politicians
some satisfaction, the country itself is not immune to what happens on its borders. The Chechen war was a massive inconvenience to Georgia, which had
no means of controlling the militants infiltrating the country. Any other conflict in the region will have the same effect; worse still, the
consequences will be even less predictable because the international situation has grown more complex since then.

Moscow is unlikely to stand idly by as Georgia destabilizes the region. Some in Georgia believe Russia can’t hurt Georgia anymore after having
stripped it of one-third of its territory. But that is not true. Georgia is not an ethnically homogenous country. There are Armenian and Azeri
enclaves that can retaliate. Even though Russia does not control these populations, any complex and unstable society is prone to external influence.
In Georgia, interethnic relations are stable but not ideal.

Assuming that Georgia’s move is a gambit to attract international attention, any response from Moscow would play into Georgia’s hands, giving it a
reason to appeal to its Western patrons. But this is a dangerous game with unpredictable consequences.

Even if the United States (we can ignore Europe due to its ongoing political decline) is more willing to take a risk for Georgia’s sake than it was
three years ago. Georgia may need its support most when the West is busy with something else. Today’s world is fraught with surprises.

After Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili broke up an opposition rally in Tbilisi with rubber bullets, tear gas and clubs, Washington, which
provided one billion dollars in aid to Saakashvili two years ago, was once again faced with the agonizing question of what to do with the "first
democrat" of the Caucasus.

President Saakashvili ,,,,
He realize his dream of ruling Russia ,was already tried by a guy from his country, his name was Stalin.
I dont think Russia wants another meglamaniac, ( or a paranoid, new york city lawyer), to look after the Russian Motherland.
Besides ras putin is already doing fine.

The European Union and NATO refused on Saturday to recognise elections in Georgia's rebel region of Abkhazia, as they reiterated their support
for the territorial integrity of Georgia.

"The Alliance reiterates its full support for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Georgia within its internationally recognised borders,"
Rasmussen added.

Alexander Ankvab, who has served as prime minister of Abkhazia and vice president over the last half decade, was elected as the new president of the
breakaway region in Friday's polls, officials said Saturday.

After all, an election is quite a ``provocation``... if you are Saakasvilli.

Silly Abkhazia - does it not realize that only NATO gets to decide who gets to be free and have elections and who does not. For example Kosovo
received independence and had elections - because NATO said it could. In NATO's eyes that doesn't set a precedent for Abkhazia, because NATO sees
what NATO wants to see, and everything else it is blind to. Only they can carve up existing countries into bits - after a liberal dose of bombing of
civilian cities of course.

In all seriousness, there is absolutely no reason why Kosovo deserves to be independent anymore than Abkhazia does. Now I didn't agree with Kosovo
being granted independence by big brother (read US), but everyone was warned very clearly that it will set a precedent that cannot be reversed. So
now Russia, China, India, and what else other big power comes along will play by the new rules, and carve up smaller countries as they see fit
according to their geopolitical interest. And NATO can sit and watch - it had its chance, and it granted independence to a bunch of Albanian mafioso
thugs and their Islamist partners.

And yet apparently tthe elections weer held despite NATO not letting them happen?

Oh...wait - NATO didn't actually try to stop them happening...it's just not recognising the state.......

Why not? Maybe there haven't been enough natives killed??

And let's see - russia thinks its fine for these elections to happen - but not in Kossovo.......why's that then?? I thouht it was only NATO got to
decide these things & who was setting precedent??

No matter - Russia & Georgia are both at the Rugby World Cup- I wonder if
they'll meet in the lower-level finals?? No I see they won't - what a shame - but Russia gets to play USA - that should be good!

Originally posted by Aloysius the Gaul
And yet apparently tthe elections weer held despite NATO not letting them happen?

Oh...wait - NATO didn't actually try to stop them happening...it's just not recognising the state.......

I was being sarcastic. NATO has no say over what happens in Abkhazia. It is just that NATO is being openly hypocritical, which lessens their
credibility.

Originally posted by Aloysius the Gaul
Why not? Maybe there haven't been enough natives killed??

And who decides how many natives or ethnical minorities killes is "enough"? There isn't even consensus in Europe over how many civilians were
actually killed in Kosovo. As I said, Abkhazia deserves independence no less than Kosovo does.

Originally posted by Aloysius the Gaul
And let's see - russia thinks its fine for these elections to happen - but not in Kossovo.......why's that then??

Russia was pretty open about its position - it did not agree with Kosovo's independence, but since NATO forced it anyway and took the land away from
Serbia by force, Abkhazia is de facto "payback" meant to demonstrate to NATO what such precedent entails. Before Kosovo was granted independence,
Russia had warned that this exact thing would happen.

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