James O'Brien

Hockey Daily Dose

Swimming in playoff pools

Personally, I feel my fantasy hockey successes tend to come from an evolving combination of waiver wire pickups, deep draft pick bargains and the occasional sell-high/buy-low trade. Generally, it seems like the good times stem from studying the movements of others, whether that amounts to the play of dark horse players, people undervaluing certain guys in a draft or overvaluing fellows whose hot streaks might peter out.

A significant amount of those advantages dissolve in a playoff instead of regular season pool.

So take that previous bit as a disclaimer: postseason fantasy hockey represents uncharted wilderness to me. As far as my foggy memory goes, this is now just the second year I’ve done anything fantasy-wise when “the games matter the most.”

Now that the grains of salt have dissolved on your taste buds, I’d like to trot out a few thoughts on how you should select your playoff team(s).

(By the way, the folks at Fantasy Postseason have a format available for you to enjoy right after you finish reading this column.)

PLAN

While I appreciate the comfortable feeling of picking players from bad teams just about as readily as I do players from dominant squads in the regular season format, there’s a strangely subversive element to disregarding one or more of the 16 postseason squads available in a playoff draft.

Really, you have to ask yourself a crucial question: “Do I want to win this league or do I just want to save face and be competitive?”

Hopefully you want to win the league. If that’s your choice, then I’d strongly recommend “investing” heavily in specific teams rather than trying to spread the wealth by grabbing a guy or two from all 16 squads. After all, there will only be eight left after round one, four remaining after round two and so on …

With that in mind, it’s important to note the ebbs and flows of your league, and maybe even identify some prejudices. Is everyone mocking a decent-enough team to the point that no one’s taking them? Is one squad being picked to bits as if owners are vultures? These are key observations if you want to stock up on players from a team (or teams) who will make a deep playoff run.

YET BE PREPARED TO SCUTTLE THAT PLAN

Of course, some might become so intoxicated by the formulas they’ve concocted that they’re unwilling to acknowledge a failed recipe. In a draft with limited resources like a playoff pool, it’s important not to depend too much on getting the right picks at the right time. It’s also dangerous to reach for lower-end talent when there are clearly superior values.

With that in mind, you have to be prepared to throw out previous notions if it’s clear that other people have the same ideas.

DETERMINE A DARK HORSE OR TWO

Most importantly, you should note that the highest seeds are likely to draw the most attention. Sure, everyone wants to load up on players from a powerhouse like the Pittsburgh Penguins or Chicago Blackhawks, but taking that journey means traveling down the path of most resistance.

Now, don’t get me wrong, it’s fine to get guys from those teams when it makes sense (I have Evgeni Malkin [first overall] and Marian Hossa [21st overall] myself), but you’re more likely to lock down multiple quality players from teams who are riskier.

Before you draft, make note of the teams you believe have the chance to advance at least two or three rounds. Depending upon how your draft breaks, you might get some real value by picking a bunch of players from those squads while everyone fights for the sixth or seventh best guy with a Native American logo on his chest.

On Page 2, I’ll discuss how this team ID process a) kinda just fell into place and b) prompted me to make a substantial risk or two.

GET GOALIES EARLY

Depending upon how stat categories are laid out, it often pays to WAIT for second or third-tier goalies during regular season drafts. That’s not really the case with netminders in playoff pools, however.

Think about it this way: there are just eight starting goalies who will see the second round of the postseason. Backups are only going to see time if 1) the guy in front of him implodes or 2) the guy in front of him gets injured.

While forwards and defensemen are plentiful, netminders are a scarce resource that probably won’t last more than a round or two.

Obviously, use your best judgment with what might be a “reach,” but make sure you get at least one starter you can believe in.

Now that I’ve laid out a few drafting tips, check out the next page to see how the Rotoworld playoff draft went. Try not to giggle too loudly at my team, as I’m fragile about these things.

Playoff pools are a strange animal.

Personally, I feel my fantasy hockey successes tend to come from an evolving combination of waiver wire pickups, deep draft pick bargains and the occasional sell-high/buy-low trade. Generally, it seems like the good times stem from studying the movements of others, whether that amounts to the play of dark horse players, people undervaluing certain guys in a draft or overvaluing fellows whose hot streaks might peter out.

A significant amount of those advantages dissolve in a playoff instead of regular season pool.

So take that previous bit as a disclaimer: postseason fantasy hockey represents uncharted wilderness to me. As far as my foggy memory goes, this is now just the second year I’ve done anything fantasy-wise when “the games matter the most.”

Now that the grains of salt have dissolved on your taste buds, I’d like to trot out a few thoughts on how you should select your playoff team(s).

(By the way, the folks at Fantasy Postseason have a format available for you to enjoy right after you finish reading this column.)

PLAN

While I appreciate the comfortable feeling of picking players from bad teams just about as readily as I do players from dominant squads in the regular season format, there’s a strangely subversive element to disregarding one or more of the 16 postseason squads available in a playoff draft.

Really, you have to ask yourself a crucial question: “Do I want to win this league or do I just want to save face and be competitive?”

Hopefully you want to win the league. If that’s your choice, then I’d strongly recommend “investing” heavily in specific teams rather than trying to spread the wealth by grabbing a guy or two from all 16 squads. After all, there will only be eight left after round one, four remaining after round two and so on …

With that in mind, it’s important to note the ebbs and flows of your league, and maybe even identify some prejudices. Is everyone mocking a decent-enough team to the point that no one’s taking them? Is one squad being picked to bits as if owners are vultures? These are key observations if you want to stock up on players from a team (or teams) who will make a deep playoff run.

YET BE PREPARED TO SCUTTLE THAT PLAN

Of course, some might become so intoxicated by the formulas they’ve concocted that they’re unwilling to acknowledge a failed recipe. In a draft with limited resources like a playoff pool, it’s important not to depend too much on getting the right picks at the right time. It’s also dangerous to reach for lower-end talent when there are clearly superior values.

With that in mind, you have to be prepared to throw out previous notions if it’s clear that other people have the same ideas.

DETERMINE A DARK HORSE OR TWO

Most importantly, you should note that the highest seeds are likely to draw the most attention. Sure, everyone wants to load up on players from a powerhouse like the Pittsburgh Penguins or Chicago Blackhawks, but taking that journey means traveling down the path of most resistance.

Now, don’t get me wrong, it’s fine to get guys from those teams when it makes sense (I have Evgeni Malkin [first overall] and Marian Hossa [21st overall] myself), but you’re more likely to lock down multiple quality players from teams who are riskier.

Before you draft, make note of the teams you believe have the chance to advance at least two or three rounds. Depending upon how your draft breaks, you might get some real value by picking a bunch of players from those squads while everyone fights for the sixth or seventh best guy with a Native American logo on his chest.

On Page 2, I’ll discuss how this team ID process a) kinda just fell into place and b) prompted me to make a substantial risk or two.

GET GOALIES EARLY

Depending upon how stat categories are laid out, it often pays to WAIT for second or third-tier goalies during regular season drafts. That’s not really the case with netminders in playoff pools, however.

Think about it this way: there are just eight starting goalies who will see the second round of the postseason. Backups are only going to see time if 1) the guy in front of him implodes or 2) the guy in front of him gets injured.

While forwards and defensemen are plentiful, netminders are a scarce resource that probably won’t last more than a round or two.

Obviously, use your best judgment with what might be a “reach,” but make sure you get at least one starter you can believe in.

Now that I’ve laid out a few drafting tips, check out the next page to see how the Rotoworld playoff draft went. Try not to giggle too loudly at my team, as I’m fragile about these things.

MY ROTO

Conveniently enough for this column (and not quite as conveniently enough in the sense that I had to be the first guy pulling the trigger in the draft), I received the top pick, so we can start with my team. Here’s the old battle axe:

The useful stuff comes with my second pick rather than selecting Geno first overall, I’d say ...

Carey Price was easily the best goalie available after a staggering run of netminders. To me, it’s important to draft goalies who have a strong hold on jobs even in the regular season, but it’s downright crucial in the playoffs.

My biggest gamble - one I’m not totally sure I’d recommend - was buying in on the Wild. It all started with the irresistible (for me, at least) value of Zach Parise at 80 and continued with nice values for Ryan Suter (100th overall) and Mikko Koivu (140th overall).

Look, I don’t really think the Wild are going to beat the Blackhawks. Still, I think I did the best I could to place myself in a high-risk, high-reward situation. The Canadiens and Kings could very well make deep runs (Los Angeles is my reluctant Stanley Cup pick) while the Wild represented bold gamble values.

Again, it’s all about adapting on the fly. This edition of the strategy probably has a lot to do with the fact that I was making “sandwich” picks.

Still, I think the core of the idea is valid: get the best players from a handful of teams and cross your fingers that the right pieces fall into place.

Goalies wise, I grabbed Price and then took a few weighted risks on threatening backups with the hopes of one or two working out. If you can get two starters who are likely to make decent runs, do that instead, though.

(Note: Maybe I should’ve taken the leap with Marc-Andre Fleury, even if I think he’s a flawed netminder. I’ll move on before I get too envious.)

Now consider his team-building philosophy:

I decided to take goaltending with two early picks as I saw that won it last season so getting Fleury and Hiller, two goalies on teams that should go to the Conference finals, will help. Since the pool is weighted in that first round points are what they are, the second round is doubled, the third round tripled and the Cup Final quadrupled, I went with Pittsburgh players and Anaheim players with some Montreal and Vancouver players sprinkled in. Of the 20 picks, none of my players finished lower than third in their Conference. If form holds true (and unfortunately it rarely does in the Stanley Cup playoffs) I should be in the mix. Grabbing Desharnais, Galchenyuk and Diaz late could be really good if Montreal has a deep run.

My strategy entering the draft was simple: goaltending, goaltending, goaltending. I wasn't a mathematics major, but even I realized pretty quickly that with 10 people in the pool and a requirement to start two goaltenders, the supply of puck-stoppers would run out early. With that in mind I grabbed Tuukka Rask and Cory Schneider with my first two selections, laying the groundwork for the rest of the draft. In addition to loading up on Bruins and Canucks players, I identified one more team from each conference that I thought was undervalued, the Senators and Blues, and filled my roster with their players as well. I'm a little concerned about the fact St. Louis is facing the defending Stanley Cup champions in the opening round, but I like their depth and think they can win the series. The Senators have suffered so many injuries this season that we don't really know what the team looks like at full strength. I'm banking on Erik Karlsson's return giving them a spark and I expect to win at least one round as an underdog. Having said all that, my chances likely hinge on those of the Canucks. With both of their goaltenders, each of the Sedin Twins, Alex Edler and Kevin Bieksa are on my roster, I'm hoping this is the year they drink from Lord Stanley's mug.

I have to admit I didn't have much of a strategy going into the draft aside from the general idea of taking Penguins, Hawks and Ducks. Having the last pick obviously wasn't the best of situations, but Sidney Crosby's cloudy status allowed me to nab him with my top selection. I was hoping to get Patrick Kane or Jonathan Toews as well, but they had already gone so I decided to pick Ryan Getzlaf. After that I tried to fill out my crease, but there wasn't much left there in terms of quality keepers or quality teams, so I settled on James Reimer because he's guaranteed to start and Ray Emery because he should play if Chicago goes deep. After that my roster was filled with Pittsburgh, Anaheim and Chicago depth players with some Maple Leafs sprinkled in to round out the group. A couple of missteps occurred in the drafting process when I got Brandon Prust from an auto draft error and I picked up Boston's Anton Khudobin for my bench when he opposes my healthy contingent of Leafs players. But I can plead ignorance on that since we started the draft without knowing the match-ups in the East. Hopefully, my gamble on Crosby pays off and the other teams I'm banking on advancing can pull through.

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Hopefully this post will provide you with some insight on how a draft might go. Stay tuned for weekly updates of the Dose as the playoffs rage on.