Sarkozy's Re-Election Isn't Going To Plan (Thanks To Marine Le Pen)

French President Nicolas Sarkozy's struggle to avoid a shock
first round exit in the April presidential elections just got a
lot harder.

A new poll on Thursday of voting intentions showed far-right
candidate Marine Le Pen had risen to 21 percent, just two points
adrift of the Conservative incumbent,
Reuters reports.

The daily poll,
conducted by Ifop for Paris Match, also showed
that Socialist Francois Hollande remained the
frontrunner at 27 percent. The poll was the latest to
raise the possibility of an upset in the first round of the
upcoming elections. Hollande is already tipped to beat Sarkozy in
a head-to-head, 57 percent to 43 percent.

Le Pen has already proposed that France renounce the euro for the
franc and leave the European Union — something sure to find an
audience given the current European situation. And of course, she
proposes to reduce legal immigration from 200,000 a year to
10,000,
The New York Times reports (a position Sarkozy seems to have
echoed with his record
deportation numbers last year).

Her protectionist stance has struck a chord with disillusioned
voters. A recent poll showed some 30 percent of the French
agreed with Le Pen's ideas, according to Reuters.

Experts are reluctant to make a prediction, but a number of
scenarios are now possible. If Sarkozy manages to defeat Le Pen,
he will most likely be defeated himself by Hollande. However, if
Le Pen overtakes Sarkozy in the first round of voting, as recent
trends seem to show, analysts say she would most likely be beaten
by Hollande in a repeat of the 2002 French elections, where Le
Pen's father, having bested Socialist Lionel Jospin, was himself
routed by Jacques Chirac.