USDA’s forecast of this year’s corn crop has been very stable since it was first made. It started at 168.8 bushels to the acre in August, dropped to 167 and half in September, and then rebounded to 168 last month. The total production forecast declined by only 131 million bushels, slightly less than one percent, from August to October. In addition, the USDA estimate of September 1 stocks of old crop corn came in almost exactly as expected. New yield and production forecasts will be released on November 10. Changes from the October forecasts are expected to be modest says Darrel Good. So, there’s not been much happening on the supply front to move the price of corn around. This leaves the University of Illinois agricultural economist considering demand, and there isn’t much there either.

It leaves corn is what he calls a choppy sideways pattern.

Good :35 …either in South America this year or the U.S. next year.

Quote Summary - March 2016 corn futures have traded in a sideways pattern, with a range of about $0.95 over the past year, about $0.40 over the past four months, and about $0.15 over the past three weeks. The current price is near the low end of that range. A broad sideways price pattern is expected to continue through the winter months. A test of the high side of the price range will likely require a threat on the supply side, either in South America this year or the U.S. next year.

USDA will update corn supply and demand figures next Tuesday (November 10, 2015). Reports on ethanol usage are due this month, and the grain stocks report in January will provide a feed usage guidepost for demand.