A new poll shows support for the Progressive Conservatives has increased in Alberta despite several recent scandals, and experts say that’s because the long-governing party has likely “bottomed out” and won’t slip any lower in public support.

The Leger poll commissioned by the Edmonton Journal and Calgary Herald says if an election were held today, 29% of decided voters would vote for the Progressive Conservatives, up from 26% in June.

Support for the Wildrose has also increased since June, to 33% of decided voters, up from 31%. The gains have come at a cost to the NDP (down to 16% from 19%) and the Liberals (down to 18% from 20%).

“The race has not moved the needle very much at all in terms of support for the PCs, which is a surprise,” Large said, explaining that a leadership race normally boosts support for a political party because it makes headlines and raises awareness.

The party hasn’t suffered, however, from a scathing auditor general’s report, the resignation of former premier Alison Redford as MLA, and a gloves-off leadership race marred by unsavoury leaks and controversy over free memberships.

“Either the race has balanced out the scandals, or they’ve lost all the support they’re going to lose,” Large said.

“They’ve hit bottom, and the only way they can go is up.”

One in three Albertans polled said they have voted Tory in the past but won’t vote Tory again; of those, 63% say they are most likely to vote Wildrose. Large said the most interesting finding is that 59% of undecided voters say they are willing to consider voting Tory in the next election, whether they have voted Tory in the past (21%) or not (28%).

“What it means is that the damage done by the auditor general’s report and the scandals … that damage is not irreparable,” Large said. “The battleground in 2016 has to be with the undecided [voters].”

There are three men vying to become leader of the PC party, who will automatically become Alberta’s next premier: Jim Prentice, Thomas Lukaszuk and Ric McIver. The poll shows Prentice will give Smith the best run for her money, topping out with 20% of the vote compared to Smith’s 26%. Lukaszuk and McIver fare substantially worse in today’s hypothetical election, taking 15 and 16% of the vote, respectively.

Large notes Prentice is also most popular among voters over 55, who are more likely to cast a ballot than younger voters.

MacEwan University political science professor John Soroski said people were “shocked and dismayed” by the auditor general’s report, but it only added to voters’ declining faith in the Tories, which dates back to 2011.

“The Conservatives have dropped as low as they can go in Alberta, around 25 to 30%,” Soroski said. “They do look like they’re bottomed out … so that does not bode well for winning the next election.”

The NDP continues to dominate the polls in Edmonton, though support has dropped to 27% of decided voters, from 30% in June. The Wildrose picked up some of those votes, increasing to 24% from 22% in June. The Tories held steady at 22% support in the capital city, while Liberals slipped to 20% from 22%.

The online poll of 1,002 Albertans was taken between Aug. 27 and Sept. 2, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margin of error is higher when the sample is divided by location; in Edmonton it is 5.5%.