Most of us don't play enough BJ to experience the stress that comeswith large bankroll fluctuations. No doubt the card counter commentsposted by Surfteg are the true realities that one would face when tryingto play professionally. How many of you take 5-6 two week trips or playevery other day year after year? More like none.........

You may be like me....play a lot when you can, but very little at othertimes. All of us have experienced the good and bad sessions and someof us are lifetime winners because we have had our share of good luck.

In 2003 I had my best year ever and went to the casino expecting towin and did most of the time. 2004 was a different story. I struggledfrom January through Most of November. Strange things happened atvarious times. During Jan and Feb I had trouble with doubles of alltypes and it got to the point where I thought there was somethingwrong with the cards. December and a 10 day trip was a recoveryperiod and put me back in the black for the year, but those were notthe kind of fluctuations that takes you to the bottom of the pit.

With our somewhat sporadic play, we may never hit one of those killerlosing streaks and unless you keep good records you may not be ableto determine if you are a winner or loser over time.

Ray, when I Count, I mostly use a Balanced Hi/Lo count, BUT I NEVER Raise my bets until AFTER a High Count REVERSAL, WHEN the High Cards ACTUALLY start coming out on a DESCENDING Count...I like to SEE some PROOF of 9's, 10's, and Aces BEFORE I Raise my Bets...

I have noticed that I WIN most of my Bets AND that the Dealer BREAKS most often during a -1 to O to +1 Count Range, especially AFTER an EXTREME Plus or Minus Count...

I don't see how that can work. You want to recognize a "streak" (hi cards coming out) before the streak ends. The count can jump, you can get a natural (the count drops) and the count can continue to increase again from that point forward.

You have to bet when the count says bet, not when you believe that high cards are actually coming out of the deck.

The BIG Difference for me is that I WAIT for a Count REVERSAL,AFTER a High Count PEAKS, and is DESCENDING back to the Neutral ZERO areaWHERE I WIN most often AND the Dealer BREAKS most often...

In my experience during the last 17 years of serious Blackjack action,at least 90% of ALL Counters LOSE at least 90% of the timeWHEN they Bet UP into a HIGH Count BEFORE the High Cards are ACTUALLY coming out,especially in 4 to 6 to 8 Deck shoes...THIS is the FATAL FLAW of most Card Counters...

Important Quote from Lance Humble,"there is new research going on concerning what happens WHEN the count is extremely POSITIVE...the player is actually at a DISadvantage WHEN the count is a very HIGH plus. This agrees with the feelings of myself AND many other players who have reported OFTEN LOSING BIG BETS IN EXTREMELY FAVORABLE SITUATIONS"(The World's Greatest Blackjack Book, 1987 Revised Edition, pages 92, 315-316).

In a real game, you won't know the count has peaked and started to drop until it has already dropped. Take a DD game, where you are one deck into it with a RC of +4, after the previous hand it was +3 so it appears to be going up. On the next hand, you get a BJ, the dealer gets a 20, the RC is now zero, and you had no opportunity to get your big bet out when you had the advantage.

your scheme says "I just had the advantage, and the advantageous cards came out as I expected, but I didn't bet big and so the advantage was lost."

The only math you can depend on is that when the count is high, you have an advantage and the only way to use that advantage is to bet big, because when the count is negative, the house has the edge, and if you are flat-betting waiting to recognize something that you can't recognize until it is gone, you are not playing with any advantage over the house at all.

All the counting books explain this.

Yes, when the count is high, your advantage might drop, but it _never_ drops to a disadvantage. If there aree 20 cards left, and all are 10's, your EV drops to 0.0 since every hand will be a push even though the TC is sky-high. But if there are a few non-10's in the deck, or even better a few of those are Aces, then your advantage becomes very real again, as a natural pays you 3:2, but only pays the dealer 1:1.

Anyone can wreck a good counting system. I use simple hi-lo and find it works effectively, when played correctly. Anything can be whacked to pieces. Follow Patterson's advice for a short-cut to the poorhouse. Of course he will appreciate your purchasing his book first...