As I’ve said a few times now, Gary V is one of the people I’ve looked-up to the most in the startup space. He’s a true hustler and beyond his sales and marketing genius he’s also pretty darn good at predicting future trends. Gary made some great points about the evolution of the Internet and the impact he sees this having on domains.

The key takeaway that nobody should ignore is that traffic is going mobile, consumers understand, love, and use apps every single day, and this means a habit change has already taken place. Extrapolate this habit change out another 3-5 years and we’re living in a different world, ten years and we’re on a different planet.

Someone asked Gary about the domain name Cabinets.com, and the value it would have ten years from now. Gary made a great point, look at the 16 year old who in ten years will be picking-out cabinets. Your average 16 year-old spends a LOT more time using apps then surfing the web, yes, that happened. So in ten years when she’s looking for cabinets she’ll go to an app she already knows and loves, the idea of going to Cabinets.com will seem as old school as going to the library and looking things up in a card catalog.

Sounds harsh? Hopefully this is a wake-up call for everyone because while we all love domains, we can’t stop the evolution of the Internet. Of course I don’t think domains are dying and neither does Gary, but if you look at how teenagers currently use the Internet you’ll find that the web is becoming a smaller part of their experience. If you missed the keynote I was able to get some nice exclusive videos of some highlights I thought you’d all like to see, enjoy!

I actually checked on the passengers to see if many were looking at their phones, as Mr. Vaynerchuk claims (that ALL passengers he encounters were), and I didn’t see one out of about 100 looking at their phones, neither the driver nor their passengers, not one was, Century City to Beverly Hills, 405 FWY exting Sunset BLVD., after 5pm Pacific time zone, very busy traffic, ideal and ambient for the foregoing.

Think about Mr. Vaynerchuk’s promulgation, all his hyperbole aside, it is absolutely unreasonable. Billboards have survived Radio, and Television. Caveman even used Billboards, however rudimentary. They will survive apps. Most Billboards are owned by Business Juggernauts such as CBS, Turner etc.

Besides, the underlying argument explicit in his talk is that these driver culprits are breaking the law using these phones, but more importantly, they are killing people by causing serious accidents; the states will not tolerate a complete breakdown of the law in this regard. They will simply have to ramp up its enforcement. And I support that.

toddApril 2, 2014, 6:24 pm

This statement below is absolutely false

“Someone asked Gary about the domain name Cabinets.com, and the value it would have ten years from now. Gary made a great point, look at the 16 year old who in ten years will be picking-out cabinets. Your average 16 year-old spends a LOT more time using apps then surfing the web, yes, that happened. So in ten years when she’s looking for cabinets she’ll go to an app she already knows and loves, the idea of going to Cabinets.com will seem as old school as going to the library and looking things up in a card catalog.”

First of all the only reason a 16 year old is spending more time on apps then on the web is because all they care about is hanging out, smoking weed and getting laid. They don’t own a home that needs cabinets, or a car that needs tires so they don’t have to surf the web looking for essential things that us so called “grown-ups” have to. If I had to have an app for every single thing that I needed or loved I would need a wagon to carry all the extra apps because they wouldn’t fit on my phone and then if I had a thousand apps I would have to visually remember each icon so I knew which one to access when I needed it. Sorry but Gary V is full of shit. Humans need to be able to access things in the most basic way and that is placing some type of associational thinking on it such as a name or a number.

KasseyApril 2, 2014, 6:46 pm

I tend to agree with Roger Mcnamee (early investor in Facebook etc.) who said the pendulum will swing back from native apps to web apps as HTML5/CSS3/JS improves the performance of web apps. Apple first advocated use of web apps before the age of native apps. Web apps do not require download/install/upgrade for consumers and offer complete control by developers.

toddApril 2, 2014, 7:33 pm

Will you be posting the extended version of the “Andrew Rosener and Gary Vaynerchuk talk domains” video. It cut off when Gary V started to answer his question. First time I have ever seen this guy and I like him but I definitely don’t agree with his domain predictions.

Maybe if the whole thing is played, then many more would be convinced.
Gary was lucky enough to see the potential of the internet in 1996 and look what happened in 2000. (Good for him.)

Now, let’s see what has happened to the phone numbers in this country.
In the Los Angeles area, more area codes have been created in the past 15 years then ever before.
It is so much that we had to start dialing the area code even if the phone that we are dialing from is in that area code.

Using the logic of Apps. taking over domain names would be like saying in 1996, phone numbers are going to disappear because of the domain names.

I don’t know though, maybe, just maybe I might be wrong.

Adam StrongApril 2, 2014, 11:27 pm

Another person who sat in front of me debated about domains not losing value and I thought Gary’s reply was great “If you truly believe that, then you should be doubling down on that”

KasseyApril 2, 2014, 11:34 pm

Thanks for posting the video clips, Morgan. Did I see a lot of empty seats?

Mobile will definitely continue to become a bigger part of the experience but I can’t do half of what I do on my laptop on my phone. The laptop is always going to be at the heart of the experience for people doing serious business and domains are at the core of that.

toddApril 3, 2014, 7:53 am

I just have to add that I think Domainfest is genius for hiring a guy that basically is saying that domain values are dropping and they will be rendered irrelevant and replaced by apps.

Nothing like hiring your own assassin DomainSponsor so whoever booked this guy should be fired. LOL What is that term we hear often? Oh yeah, Epic Fail!

albertApril 3, 2014, 8:24 am

@Mathew
I saw an interview with a “specialist” on desktops and laptops. He said that the majority will not be having laptops in the next 3 years. That interview was about three years ago.

@Adam
I have been buying more domains in the last year (.coms) as they have become more available. Thanks for the advice.

@Todd
I was trying to figure out why Domain Fest (that DOMAIN FEST) would bring on a guy touting the destruction of domains as well.

albertApril 3, 2014, 8:28 am

@Mathew
Correction, meant to say desktops, not laptops.

Also, I want to get something straight. Is Gary saying that the people looking for furniture, jewelry, clothing, or other tangible items are only going to look at apps?

The whole idea of the internet is to provide information, and by looking at some App. that someone developed simply takes away from the freedom to surf the web and get as much information as possible before making a decision.

Again, I have not seen the whole presentation, but it just does not make sense.

Adam StrongApril 3, 2014, 9:12 am

“The laptop is always going to be at the heart of the experience for people doing serious business and domains are at the core of that.”

The guys at the newspaper or yellow pages probably said that about their products too.

Gary said several times that he didn’t see domains going the way of the Dodo bird but there are a lot of shifts happening very fast in the digital space. The joke he used was people said “I don’t need a cell phone. I have this cool pager” If you want to be romantic about the way things are and how you made your fortunes (or the ones you missed) that’s great. Another point he made was there are lots of obvious ways for domainers and those in this business to leverage their current assets (whether it be smarts, experience, market position, cash, domains, etc) in to the mobile world and the social space.

I personally feel that there are assets I have that will increase in value and I’m going to leverage them in to some of the things that are happening now. I’ll find the opportunities like I always have.

btw, Todd are you doubling down on your prediction of the future by buying tons of domains ?

MorganApril 3, 2014, 10:25 am

Well said @Adam and completely agreed!

Domo SapiensApril 3, 2014, 10:27 am

Morgan, thanks for the post.
Any chance you will upload the whole enchilada?
The other day I witness my son book a flight via an APP in less than 5 minutes using his iphone…
something Old Fart’ domainers (and I am one) are resisting to comprehend, visualize.
The thing with Gary is that you can’t buy his thoughts, he is usually way ahead of his time and usually right, in this case he touched a nerve.
He mentions APPS and other platforms (not just apps)
What he mentions as happening in the next 10 to 20 years (price going downwards) has already begun…

Jab Jab Jab… Right Hook!
(get his book)

toddApril 3, 2014, 1:45 pm

@Adam

In 1879 when the telephone number was created I wonder how many times they said in 10 years phone numbers will be obsolete. 135 years later and you can still reach me at a phone number.
….and in 135 more years unless you can yell really loud to get my attention you will probably still be calling me at a phone number.

albertApril 3, 2014, 4:42 pm

Let me put it this way.
Who would jump at the chance to purchase for $100,000 (today) a domain name that would easily fetch $1,000,000 today if the catch was that you could not sell it for a minimum of 10 years, however, you would be able to run a business from it.

Me for one.
But I don’t think Rick Schwartz would go for it.

MorganApril 3, 2014, 5:26 pm

@albert – your assumption that a domain worth $1,000,000 today would be worth anything close to that ten years from now is just a wild guess. I hope you are right but I can tell you that teenagers today don’t see the Internet as the web, they experience it through apps, and .COM doesn’t have the same meaning to them as it does to us.

I hope .COM prices skyrocket, heck they comprise most of my portfolio, but I can tell you that my 15 year-old cousin has no nostalgia around .COM. Times they are a changing, hoping things will stay the same is the best way to stay behind the curve. Let’s get ahead of it!

Adam StrongApril 3, 2014, 10:27 pm

@Todd How many times has the phone number reinvented itself ?
4 digits, then 7, then 10, then country codes. Sounds really familiar to me. Today, I can get a laptop or tablet and a wifi connection at a cafe and call you with no number of my own. Millions ditch copper land lines. . . things change and now you connect with someone via skype. What’s my # ? There’s a dozen people in the domain space I talk to on skype every week and don’t have their “phone number”.

Methods of communication are constantly changing . . . We need addresses or an identifier system. Yes, I get it completely. People are still going to use domains as one way to perform that, SURE ! I’m on your side there. I’m still buying. I’ve spent well in to 6 figures this year already on domains. Double down. I still feel there’s downward pressure . . . not in all areas mind you, but in most.

When I’m old and feeble I know there’ll be a great domain still sitting in my portfolio to hand off to someone. Kinda like when my grandfather handed down his pocket watch. It still tells time but do I need it with my “swiss army knife” of a mobile phone? People are already making different choices on how to communicate, how to sell things. There are new ways to communicate already that we didn’t have 25 years ago, before the .com

As early as 30 years from now, god willing if I’m alive still, I’ll be sitting around with a bunch of domain names, and I’ll be telling my grandchildren a story of the good old days of the internet when I used to wait for 5 mintues for an image to “download” and it wasn’t even a VIDEO !! and some times we’d lose the connection if someone picked up the phone and we typed-in domains and we were thankful !” http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tt33zqib2qk&t=1m58s

albertApril 4, 2014, 12:41 am

@Morgan
I have 16 and 11 year olds. They both have phones and yes, you are correct that applications play a part in their over all experience. It used to be facebook, but now it is Twitter as far as communicating with a few of their friends at the same time.

Having said that, 80% of what they do is on the desktop, laptop and not too much on the Ipad which is left for my wife.

In order to get to the websites (whether it would be Saks, Neiman’s, Chanel, or even Amazon) they need a domain name.
In order to search for something, you go to google and company.

The biggest fear of any business is that the employees will leave, take your idea, contacts, etc. and open up the street from you taking away your competition.

However, if your business is on line and you have a category killer name (books.com, jewelry.com, boats.com), you are so far along that it will be extremely difficult and expensive to compete.

Your domain is your address and that is why it will become more valuable as time goes bye.

Applications are great, but remember, the phone is a very inconvient devise making you do things that your fingers are not made to do.

Very good comment, the one above. I pretty much agree, over 90% of it, above all it was a nice read.

Now, I believe we all agree that something could come in the future that might disrupt what we are used to today; it’s even more likely than not.

What our duty is, it seems to me, to guard against false messiahs. Are new gTLDs, or Apps that disruptor [Coll.]? Perhaps. Perhaps not. Hence, the debate.

Finally, while contributing to the debate on he future of dot Com at DomainFest, Vaynerchuk, the Wise and Accomplished Entrepreneur, veered off when he threatened Billboards too; by no less errant, drunk, app wielding, pimple-faced newGTLD texting teenagers…

And their passengers.

albertApril 4, 2014, 12:50 am

@Adam
I have lived in the Los Angeles area for 37 years and back then, there was 818, 213 & 714.
Today, there is:
818, 213,310. 626, 714, 562,
Now, a lot of these area codes have come into play in the last 15 years. The irony is so did the internet.

As a matter of fact, we did not have to dial YOUR OWN AREA CODE first until about a few years back.
Why?
Because we were (are) running out of numbers.

Services like Skype work especially great in areas where not their are no phone lines, towers, etc.

toddApril 4, 2014, 6:45 am

“Methods of communication are constantly changing . . . We need addresses or an identifier system. Yes, I get it completely. People are still going to use domains as one way to perform that, SURE ! I’m on your side there. I’m still buying. I’ve spent well in to 6 figures this year already on domains. Double down. I still feel there’s downward pressure . . . not in all areas mind you, but in most. ”

I agree.

I like your writing style and would love to see it more on your blog DomainNameNews.com. I am not knocking Frank but you have a lot say and you say it well and I would love to read more. The domain blogs are in need of a fresh writing style.