Global and European Mission

The most shocking statistic that comes out of the latest study on Muslim’s in Europe is that by the year 2030 in “Austria, Muslims are projected to reach 9.3% of the population…, up from 5.7% today; in Sweden, 9.9% (up from 4.9% today); in Belgium, 10.2% (up from 6% today); and in France, 10.3%” (Pew Forum).

Where is all this growth coming from? The Pew Forum makes this important observation,

“Statistical data on conversion to and from Islam are scarce. What little information is available suggests that there is no substantial net gain or loss in the number of Muslims through conversion globally . . . . An independent study published in 2010 that examined patterns of religious conversion among various faiths in 40 countries, mainly in Europe, also found that the number of people who were raised Muslim in those countries, as a whole, roughly equaled the number who currently are Muslim.”

So, the growth is really not from conversion but from births into Muslim families. This emphasizes the cultural nature of Islam. There is an interesting report done by Nova Research that shows that Islam in Europe is becoming ‘Europeanized.’ You can find the PDF document on Islam in Europe here. For example, Nova reports that, “A Swedish study of Islamic Imams in 2004 indicated that as few as 15% of second-generation Muslims in Sweden could be considered religiously active.”

Here is my free 35 page report that looks at the present and future populations of Muslims in each country of Europe. Download the updated version it here. (This version corrects errors in the Republic of Macedonia).

I need to dig into this a little more. Patrick also has some numbers on this. The number of births to second- and third-generations of families that have immigrated are always substantially less than the first generation. I *suspect* (although I don’t have immediate data) that most of the growth of Islam in Europe comes either from (a) immigration (e.g. new people arriving), (b) births to families, or (c) conversion-via-marriage (e.g. not outright conversion so much as someone marrying someone else and converting in the process). I also suspect that many of those converts are not very serious about the faith; it’s primarily a formality. For example, technically Robert Scoble (http://www.scobleizer.com) converted to Islam to marry his wife, but as far as I can see this is primarily a formality. Is it more than that for a typical European marriage to an immigrant?