'Elections don't mean more stability in Libya'

Former rebel fighters who are now intergrated into the Libyan army and form the Diraa al-Gharbiya brigade, are seen with their weapons guarding the western entrance of the capital Tripoli on May 19, 2014.( AFP Photo / Mahmud Turkia) / AFP

While everybody is waiting for elections to improve the situation in Libya, we should remember that many countries drowning in violence had elections, like Iraq, and they did not help, Washington correspondent and political analyst Said Arikat told RT.

RT:Former General Khalifa Haftar says he
wants to root out terror in Libya. Could this be an attempt to
grab power during a security vacuum or could he be a knight in
shining armour?

Said Arikat: I think it is a little bit of both.
First of all, there is a great deal of violence, a great deal of
lawlessness. There are too many militias with different
orientations and maybe he looks at the military as the catalyst
to restore some sort of order. That may be not viewed too badly
by Egypt which has a border with Libya, or Algeria or other
countries because everybody is really concerned about the
deterioration in the Libyan Sea.

RT:Libya's government claims it has the
country under control. So what do you make of that attack on
Parliament?

SA: I do not think that actually fits what we
see happening in Libya. The head of the Parliament called on the
militia themselves to fight the retired general of the Libyan
army in this case. So I do not think they really have the
situation under control. We saw at least that one airbase, at
Tobruk, joined forces with Haftar, that the special forces joined
forces with Haftar, so we are seeing a lot of the military
element. A lot of the military units are joining forces together
with Haftar to restore some sort of order. Is this a coup? It
looks like this. Will the government be able to hold onto power?
I am not so certain.

RT:The removal of Colonel Gaddafi by
Western-backed rebels brought back decades-old tribal tensions.
How, if at all, will this chaos be settled?

SA: This is the thing. I do not think that those
who aided the Libyan rebellion, to begin with NATO, and flooded
the country with arms paid by countries like Qatar, Saudi Arabia,
really foresaw all this. In fact, the tribal tensions, the tribal
divisions existed in Libya for a long time, it was certain [they
would] take advantage of these arms that were flowing
uncontrollably into Libya to serve their own power, their own
tribal agendas and perhaps garner some of the oil wells and so
on. It is not likely to be resolved any time soon. I heard some
suggestions that maybe Algeria, Egypt and the United States of
the Africa will form some sort of a task force to help the
government control large portions of Libya and fight obvious
militant militias.

RT:Libya is scheduled to hold general
elections later this year. Can we expect a stable and legitimate
government emerging out of it despite flourishing tribal
conflicts? Will it be capable of bringing real change to the
fragile situation?

SA: It is hoped that election will help, and
everybody is waiting for that. Perhaps freezing the activities of
the Parliament until such elections takes place may help the
situation. But look, having elections and having stability are
two separate things. We have had elections in many places, from
Iraq to other places where there is actually a great deal of
violence. So it can conceivably take place. Whether it can solve
the Libyan problem in the long-term remains to be seen.

RT:Fighting between troops loyal to Haftar
and Islamists began last Friday in Benghazi and has left dozens
dead. Is this the start of a civil war in Libya?

SA: I think that all indications show that
basically the violence in Libya is getting out of control, and
more and more people are involved. I asked the State Department
what do they make of it, and they said “We call on all sides
to refrain from violence”. We know they can address
themselves to government but who are they talking to in terms of
the militias? Nobody really knows. It is not something that is
going to be controlled in the near future. We see it happening in
Benghazi, we see it happening in many parts of Libya, on the
Sub-Saharan Africa border and many other places in Algeria.
Algeria closed it border because the situation became so
volatile. I expect that violence will spiral out of control in
the next couple of weeks.

RT:Is any new foreign intervention
possible?

SA: I think the intervention is not likely, but
some sort of a coalition where elements of Egyptian special
forces, Algerian special forces, maybe some elements of AFRICOM
is possible. We have to remember that the US Marines pulled out
and relocated into Sicily, so at least for now it does not seem
to be intent on intervention, although it does not rule out any
kind of airstrikes. There is always a possibility.

The statements, views and opinions expressed in this column are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of RT.