Russia hardens tone on Ukraine

Pro-Ukrainian nationalist demonstrators hold Ukrainian flags during an anti-war rally at the monument of Taras Shevchenko (1814 1861), an iconic Ukrainian poet, writer, artist and political figure, in the center of the Crimean city of Simferopol on March 7, 2014. GENYA SAVILOV/AFP/Getty Images
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To understand why Russians overwhelming back Vladimir Putin's quest to occupy Ukraine, a 360 degree mural of the Crimean War in the Panorama Museum provides the explanation. Thousands of Russians died during the nearly year-long 19th century Siege of Sevastopol by the British and French. Thousands more died defending the city when Nazi Germany laid siege to for 8 months during WWII. Postmedia photo by Matthew Fisher Postmedia photo by Matthew Fisher
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?The Ukrainian peasants are our enemy and (former Ukrainian president Viktor) Yanukovych is the worst of them all,? says Daniel Romanenko, who despite his Ukrainian name described hmself as totally Russian and wants the Crimean Peninsula to split from Ukraine and join Russia. Separatist feelings in the Russian-majority Crimea are running high since a bloody revolt in Kiev left pro-western interests in power in a sharp rebuke to Russia influence and prestige in the Ukraine. Postmedia photo by Matthew FisherPostmedia photo by Matthew Fisher
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A municipal worker sweeps a seafront promenade in Sevastopol in the Crimea on March 7, 2014. (VIKTOR DRACHEV/AFP/Getty Images)
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Russian forces block access to the Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile military unit on the Cape of Fiolent in Sevastopol on March 7, 2014. (VIKTOR DRACHEV/AFP/Getty Images)
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KYIV, Ukraine — A defaced image of Russian President Vladimir Putin dressed up as Napoleon got lots of laughs in Independence Square on Friday.

However, the mercurial Russian strongman is being taken very seriously right now by the new regime in Kyiv and by its western partners as he makes it more and more plain that he intends to defy international law and permanently rearrange the contours of Ukraine.

On Tuesday, Putin said Crimea would remain within Ukraine. Forty-eight hours later that notion was blown apart when the Crimean parliament unexpectedly moved forward a referendum on the peninsula’s future to March 16 and changed the question to: Moscow or Kyiv, Yes or No?

The idea of Crimea remaining part of Ukraine suffered a far more grave reverse on Friday when the leaders of Russia’s lower and upper houses, who are Putin’s guys, declared their legislatures’ intention to rubber stamp the Crimea’s decision to quit Ukraine and join the Russia Empire.

None of these flip flops happened without Putin’s approval, said Andrei Piontkovsky of the Institute of System Analysis in Moscow.

“There is a struggle going on at the top and mostly it is inside one person’s head,” he said, using a turn of phrase that captures the essence of rule today in Russia.

“I think Putin had been waiting to see western reaction. What he saw satisfied him. Germany and Italy are against imposing sanctions so he decided to be rude and speed up Crimea’s annexation.”

The blitz of bad news for Ukraine continued Friday when the Russian energy giant, Gazprom, threatened to turn off the oil and gas spigots to Ukraine because the country was nearly $2 billion behind in paying its bills.

In another salvo, Russia warned Washington that imposing sanctions over Crimea was a “hasty and ill-considered step” that would damage relations.

Putin’s tone hardened as he saw the West’s reaction to last weekend’s military incursion into Crimea and the domestic political benefits that could be reaped from the crisis, said Sergei Mikheev of Moscow’s Centre for Political Assessment.

“Putin’s regime has grown stronger and other issues have become secondary because the events around Maidan (Independence Square) have consolidated Russian society,” he said. “What the West did (by encouraging regime change in Kyiv) created the situation where Russia could get hold of Crimea.”

Bluntly explaining Russia’s current position, Mikheev said: “We were deceived. Putin got angry. Once we have the Crimea, we will not give it back.”

Putin’s pell-mell drive to secure Crimea and the real prospect of a new Cold War have dominated western cabinet meetings and become the obsession of the moment for many who converse through social media.

However, Putin’s machinations and western fury at them have barely resonated with the ragtag paramilitaries camped by Independence Square who overthrew Viktor Yanukovych’s government in a bloody coup on Feb. 22. Although they have insisted that they must have a much bigger voice in the post-coup Ukraine, on Friday the central battle of the heroes of the revolution – which attracted the attention of scores of interested babushkas – was with Kyiv’s municipal authorities over orders to dismantle barricades constructed mostly of garbage and tires.

Aside from the Crimea and cleaning up Independence Square, which is an eyesore and public health concern, there has been a lot else for weary Ukrainians to fret about. The treasury urgently needs about $30 billion or $40 billion to stay afloat. European pledges of aid have only amounted to half of that shortfall. Although the money is needed now, most if it will not be doled out until next year or 2016.

Also troubling to those who have demanded that Crimea remain part of Ukraine was an announcement on Thursday by the Kremlin that it had approved a $3 billion, 4.5 kilometre long bridge to link Crimea with the Russian mainland where the Black Sea meets the Sea of Azov. If the span is built, it could end Crimea’s dependence on Ukraine for electricity, water and food and make it totally dependent on Russia for this.

Leaving open the possibility that Putin might shift course again and still strike a deal that gives the Crimea state-like powers while acknowledging Ukraine’s sovereignty, “it was important for him to give Crimea a signal that he was not abandoning them,” said Dmitri Babich, who is a political pundit for Russia’s RIA-Novosti state news agency.

Russia’s moves to ensure itself the paramount role in Crimea’s future, has not led to public hysteria in Ukraine. But the conflict has created bewilderment, according to Viktor Nebozhenko.

“I bet over the last few days there has been a colossal communication between Russia and Ukraine because we have all relatives there and people are alarmed on both sides of the frontier,” according to Viktor Nebozhenko of the Ukrainian Barometer sociological centre.

“Nobody here is giving Crimea to Putin. But everybody understands that Ukraine is weak now and can hardly oppose Putin’s plans.”

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