UFC 150 preview: UFC gives new blood a chance by nixing another rematch

If the past five fights of his career are any indication, Frankie Edgar’s next fight – a meeting with champ Benson Henderson that will be his third consecutive rematch in six fights – will be close.

It could be the kind of fight that makes great fodder for the endless judging debate in our sport. And Edgar has had more than his share of time at the center of these discussions.

Perhaps too much time.

They meet at UFC 150 which takes place Saturday at Denver’s Pepsi Center. Main-card fights air live on pay-per-view (10 p.m. ET/7 p.m. PT) following prelims on FX (8 p.m. ET) and Facebook (7:30 p.m. ET).

Henderson, too, knows about rematches; he cemented his status as a WEC champion (interim and then undisputed) by twice defeating Donald Cerrone within a year.

But as UFC President Dana White recently said, Henderson won’t get the luxury of getting an immediate rematch with Edgar if the fight is another nail-biter on the scorecards. Which, if Edgar’s performance in rematches is any indication, it could be.

That’s a sign that the UFC is, for now, tired of holding up the lightweight division to right real or perceived scoring wrongs.

Edgar came back better in second bouts against B.J. Penn and Gray Maynard. And though he lost to Henderson on the scorecards in their February meeting at UFC 144, fight stats showed him slightly ahead at the end of five rounds. (The less tangible measure of octagon control sealed the deal, as did the damage Henderson’s strikes inflicted.)

Rematches, meanwhile, have burned up more than a year of time on the calendar. That’s forced the top fighters in the lightweight division to make a choice: sit out, miss paydays, and wait for a shot – or take interim fights and risk losing their spot on the ladder.

Rematches can be big business, as most recently seen by UFC 148 and the Anderson Silva vs. Chael Sonnen rematch. But too many of them in succession may be a bad thing. With the very promotable Nate Diaz waiting on the horizon, it might be the best move to move on and test his bankability in PPV dollars.

And if Edgar comes out ahead on Saturday, the UFC can always revisit the idea of Edgar vs. Henderson III down the line. If Henderson wins, it opens up fights with Diaz, Maynard, Anthony Pettis and perhaps even Clay Guida (the latter two of which are rematches, of course).

The important thing is to move it along.

Oddsmakers give Henderson (16-2 MMA, 4-0 UFC) about a 65 percent chance of walking away with a second win over Edgar (14-2-1 MMA, 9-2-1 UFC). Lines have swayed toward the champ as the fight has drawn nearer, but they never broke into the territory of him being an overwhelming favorite. Henderson hasn’t yet established a track record as a UFC champion, and Edgar’s reputation of waging incredible comebacks has kept things, well, close.

Other main-card bouts

Donald Cerrone (18-4 MMA, 4-1 UFC) vs. Melvin Guillard (30-10-2 MMA, 11-6 UFC): This lightweight matchup was put together as a surefire way to produce fireworks. Cerrone is a muay Thai wrecking machine, and Guillard is an explosive kickboxer with powerful hands and knees. Here’s the thing: The most recent time Guillard was paired with another striking specialist, Jeremy Stephens, he played hit and run over three rounds. In pre-fight press obligations, he’s claimed to have adopted the Dutch style of kickboxing, which means all aggression, all the time. But if he’s trying to advance his career (and who isn’t?), it’s far more prudent for him to take down Cerrone or measure his offense. Cerrone is expected to walk down Guillard. If he connects, he’s proven to be fantastic in scrambling for a submission, which he did against Dennis Siver. That’s a winning strategy against Guillard, whose weakness to submissions is well-established.

Jake Shields (27-6-1 MMA, 2-2 UFC) vs. Ed Herman (20-7 MMA, 7-5 UFC): Shields is too honest for his own good sometimes – unless he’s pulling a head fake in admitting prior to this middleweight fight that he hasn’t fully acclimated to the thin air of Denver. While he doesn’t have to deal with the same kind of weight cut that he did as a welterweight, he’s carrying around more bulk, and that could be its own hindrance. As a current resident of Fort Collins, Colo., Herman is on home turf here, and his best move will be to keep this fight standing, where he can tire out Shields. The X-factor in this matchup is that Herman has shown weakness to submissions, and if Shields is able to get him to the floor and get top position, he’s in trouble. But if he prevents Shields from distracting him too much with awkward standup, he should be able to land big punches and close this one out.

Yushin Okami (26-7 MMA, 10-4 UFC) vs. Buddy Roberts (12-2 MMA, 1-0 UFC): As both fighters’ opponents were forced to withdraw from the event due to injuries, these two middleweights found themselves paired up. But make no mistake about it: This is the Buddy Roberts debut party if he’s victorious. The bout is almost all upside for him, and very much all downside for Okami, who’s facing a trip back to the preliminary card after back-to-back losses to Anderson Silva and Tim Boetsch. In the latter, he was performing spectacularly before crumbling in the third round, so he’s got more chances in store provided he doesn’t completely blow it. He shouldn’t, of course, because he’s got twice the experience of Roberts with far more high-level competition – and because he has a dangerous toolbox against an opponent who didn’t exactly wow in his first octagon appearance. Roberts certainly beat Caio Magalhaes, but not in the way that earmarked him as a future star. If he can step up for this one, he will have surprised many.

Justin Lawrence (4-0 MMA, 1-0 UFC) vs. Max Holloway (5-1 MMA, 1-1 UFC): Featherweight Holloway did in his second octagon bout what he was supposed to do in his debut against Dustin Poirier, which was to show off his crisp striking chops. (Darn that Poirier for going the mounted-triangle route.) Against an overmatched Pat Schilling, Holloway looked great. It’s hard to say whether that will be the same against striking specialist Lawrence, who made quite an impression on “The Ultimate Fighter: Live” before knocking out John Cofer with a head kick on the undercard of the reality show’s finale. What this fight may end up testing rather than the standup skills of either is the ground skills of both, as one of them is bound to connect with a hard shot at some point. Then, we could see who is the more well-rounded fighter.

A total of 26 fighters got their chance to shine on Saturday as part of UFC 190 at Rio de Janeiro’s HSBC Arena. Now that UFC 190 is in the books, it’s time to commence MMAjunkie’s “Three Stars” ceremony.

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