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Saturday, September 3, 2011

Syria And The Domestic Factor

By Walid Choucair

Many
people are wagering that the stance by foreign countries on the situation in
Syria could evolve rapidly, despite the prevailing belief that there will be no
sudden or rapid change in events there, domestically, as seen by uprisings in
other Arab countries.

In
terms of the domestic situation, the only surprising thing is the determination
by the protestors and the opposition to continue demonstrating and taking to
the streets, despite the death that awaits them. There is also the
determination of the Syrian regime, to continue its crackdown and use of
bullets and all forms of violence in its campaign to “confront armed and
terrorist gangs.” Those who are demanding the fall of the regime are
demonstrating an ability to resort to the street, despite the painful and
bloody campaign by security bodies, the army and militias. When these militias
complete a military operation in a given town, city or governorate, they soon
return to the location as a result of people taking to the street, with an
escalation in their tone and the slogans they chant against the head of the
regime. This has happened on many occasions in Deraa, Hama, Homs and most
areas, as more deaths are recorded, and the number of arrests rise. If this
determination by both sides in the crisis demonstrates anything, it is that
neither side is able to settle things in the foreseeable future.

The
inability to settle things by either side has prompted several foreign actors
to search for ways out of the crisis that respect the sensitivity of the Syrian
people to any type of foreign intervention, while maintaining foreign pressure
on this regime. Perhaps the growing isolation of Damascus will lead other
elements of Syrian society and official institutions to demand change, so that
the balance of power shifts in the direction of the opposition.

Up
to now, the foreign intervention on the side of the regime has been more
effective than that in favor of the opposition. The pressure of sanctions by
Washington and the European Union on the regime has been offset by measures
that involve assistance offered by Iran. This has prompted countries such as
Turkey to try and intercede with Tehran, in a bid to get it to pressure its
ally Syria to halt the crackdown and accelerate reform moves. This is in order
to avoid a larger international consensus on tougher sanctions on Syria, which
could pave the way for foreign intervention that would exacerbate the regional
and international struggle over the country. Perhaps this has prompted Iranian
officials, over the last two weeks, to talk about the need for reform and the
importance of listening to the people’s demands. Some people have even imagined
that the regional equation has changed – instead of demands that Damascus
abandon its relationship with Iran, as in recent years, the developments in the
external stance on Syria are paving the way for Iran to abandon the Syrian
regime, if it continues to confront the opposition in a way that leaves it
twisting in the wind. This will threaten Iran’s interests in the Middle East
and prompt it to search for alternatives, such as the reported Iranian contacts
with the Syrian opposition. However, such a scenario is unlikely to play out at
present, meaning that foreign intervention is still supporting the Syrian
regime, due to its ability to overcome sanctions by relying on Iranian
assistance and the situation in Lebanon and Iraq.

But
this raises another problem: the degree to which Beirut and Baghdad can
withstand international pressure to apply international sanctions, if adopted
by the United Nations. This will turn Iraq and Lebanon into arenas of
escalating the struggle between Iran and the international community, because
of the struggle over Syria. Both Lebanon and Iraq are subject to Iranian
influence, in one way or another, and this will put each in a more difficult
situation than they face today, in terms of the domestic contradictions and
deep divisions with regard to the external options available to both countries.

In
light of the very complicated external situation, the Syrian domestic situation
appears to be the chief factor that will prompt outside countries to make up
their minds, and both the regime and the opposition are aware of this.

The
regime is trying to use a crackdown to settle matters, paying no heed to any
foreign reactions and the possibility of seeing an international front take
shape. The opposition, meanwhile, is seeking to unite its ranks and bring in
more political and social groups to its side, after these elements have
remained hesitant about, or frightened by, such a move. The declaration by the
opposition inside the country, to form a “national transitional council,” and
the naming of some figures to form such a body, is an attempt to establish a
united political group that can address the outside world and expand the base
of the opposition, which could allow it to keep pace with expected foreign
developments. An early sign of the future stance by the opposition is that the
nucleus of the transitional council has declared its commitment to agreements
that have been conducted with the outside world.

About Me

I graduated from the French University in Beirut (St Joseph) specialising in Political and Economic Sciences. I started my working life in 1973 as a reporter and journalist for the pan-Arab magazine “Al-Hawadess” in Lebanon later becoming its Washington, D.C. correspondent. I subsequently moved to London in 1979 joining “Al-Majallah” magazine as its Deputy Managing Editor. In 1984 joined “Assayad” magazine in London initially as its Managing Editor and later as Editor-in-Chief. Following this, in 1990 I joined “Al-Wasat” magazine (part of the Dar-Al-Hayat Group) in London as a Managing Editor. In 2011 I became the Editor-In-Chief of Miraat el-Khaleej (Gulf Mirror). In July 2012 I became the Chairman of The Board of Asswak Al-Arab Publishing Ltd in UK and the Editor In Chief of its first Publication "Asswak Al-Arab" Magazine (Arab Markets Magazine) (www.asswak-alarab.com).

I have already authored five books. The first “The Tears of the Horizon” is a love story. The second “The Winter of Discontent in The Gulf” (1991) focuses on the first Gulf war sparked by Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait. His third book is entitled “Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: From Balfour Promise to Bush Declaration: The Complications and the Road to a Lasting Peace” (March 2008). The fourth book is titled “How Iran Plans to Fight America and Dominate the Middle East” (October 2008) And the fifth and the most recent is titled "JIHAD'S NEW HEARTLANDS: Why The West Has Failed To Contain Islamic Fundamentalism" (May 2011).

Furthermore, I wrote the memoirs of national security advisor to US President Ronald Reagan, Mr Robert McFarlane, serializing them in “Al-Wasat” magazine over 14 episodes in 1992.

Over the years, I have interviewed and met several world leaders such as American President Bill Clinton, British Prime Minister Margaret Thacher, Late King Hassan II of Morocco, Late King Hussein of Jordan,Tunisian President Zein El-Abedine Bin Ali, Lybian Leader Moammar Al-Quadhafi,President Amine Gemayel of Lebanon,late Lebanese Prime Minister Rafic Hariri, Late Palestinian Chairman Yasser Arafat, Haitian President Jean Claude Duvalier, Late United Arab Emirates President Sheikh Zayed Bin Sultan Al Nahyan,Algerian President Shazli Bin Jdid, Jamaican Prime Minister Edward Siyagha and more...