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10/01/2010

Unusual suspects top the growth tables

It’s pop quiz time. So which country do you think will grow the fastest in the next five year period? China? A close call but no. India!? Not really. It is actually Liberia, followed by Turkmenistan and a bunch of other equally unusual suspects.

According to data crunched by The Conference Board, a New York-based policy and research think tank, Liberia could beat all others in the pecking order of world’s fastest growing economies between 2010 and 2014.

The aftermath of the global financial meltdown has been a leveller of sorts, creating unexpected winners.

The tiny country on the western fringe of Africa that derives nearly two-thirds of its GDP (Gross Domestic Product) from agriculture, forest and fisheries, is expected to clock growth rates of 13.4% in 2013. Turkmenistan, with its sizeable oil and gas resources, is second. With oil prices hardening, it could expect dividends trickling in.

Here’s how they stack up:

Real GDP (annual % change)

2010

2012

2014

Average 2010-2014

Liberia

6.3

12.8

12.9

10.9

Turkmenistan

15.3

8.6

8.0

9.8

China

9.9

9.8

9.5

9.6

Mongolia

3.0

15.0

0.9

9.6

Ghana

5.0

7.1

5.1

9.0

Qatar

18.5

3.4

3.3

8.4

Timor-Leste

7.9

7.6

7.8

7.7

India

8.0

7.6

8.1

7.5

Botswana

4.1

13.8

2.1

7.5

Ethiopia

7.5

7.5

7.7

7.5

Source: The Conference Board, IMF

China is third but that’s hardly surprising. In fact, it has been storied to the point of being a global obsession. Its blistering rate of growth in the last few years, on the contrary, could have pulled along many of the other smaller nations, through several backward and forward trade linkages.

The other eye-poppers in the list are Mongolia – China’s northern neighbour that is growing just as fast during this period – Ghana, Timor-Leste and Botswana.

Forecasts for Mongolia and Ghana predict GDP of 22.5-23% in 2013 and 2011 respectively – spikes that are pulling up their average.

Meanwhile, world’s largest economy, US is plodding through a slow, tough recovery with an expected average growth of 2.3 in this period.

Kenneth Goldstein, economist with The Conference Board outlines three factors that could be driving these growth newbies: “demand for raw materials that drives up prices for material producing countries” although this trend is now softening; “export driven growth…and infrastructure development”.

Of these, infrastructure development is the fillip that is “most likely to sustain and extend their growth,” Goldstein explained.

Numbers alone, however, should be viewed with caution. Most of these countries have nascent-to-poor infrastructure and get large chunks of their national income from agriculture. Their growth is usually fuelled by some exogenous stimuli and fluctuates in a wide bracket. Secondly, a low GDP base in these economies could be propping up the overall percent change, even when the growth in actual terms is much smaller.

Some of these countries could lose steam in their growth tracks over time while others ride the wave and quicken their pace. But here and now, they are the fastest of them all.