The political spin is thick as egg nog this holiday season, but the mathematical reality remains that both the Conservatives and the Liberal-NDP coalition are going to need to depend on the Bloc Quebecois if they wish to survive in this Parliament.

It's even money that the Liberals will find some way to have enough members absent at any crucial votes so that they can vote in favour of non-confidence and still not bring down the government. Wait and see.

"Avoiding this change in government is still possible. Harper simply needs to offer a full apology for the failed economic update, name a new Finance Minister, and bring forward a plan for the economy."

Harper can do that, or admit that he has personally lost the confidence of the House of Commons and resign as Prime Minister. Mackenzie King did.

It would then be up to the Governor-General to either invite the Liberal-NDP coaltion to government, or ask Rob Nicholson (who is next in the Cabinet's order of precedence) to serve as Prime Minister with the Conservatives. That's how it would work, right?

I think we will be in for another election and no single party can be blamed for it. The Conservatives set the wheels in motion and the opposition parties are fueling the flames. Even the president of the Liberal party has stated that the current political and economic climate represents a vastly different situation than what the country faced in the last election, which means the GG would be justified in calling another one. It could be her own little $300 million stimulus package.

With such a strong minority it will be very hard for the Governor General to overturn the results of the last election...

If a new government happens, they won't have to "overturn the results of the last election." The new coalition is perfectly consistent with the results of the last election, because Canadians vote for a parliament, not a government.

Why don't people know this??? My god, what ARE they teaching in Canadian high schools these days???

I agree with Idealistic Pragmatist completely. The idea that we somehow "elected Steven Harper as Prime Minister" is flawed. His party one the largest block of seats and he was rightly entitled to therefore become Prime Minister for as long as he held the confidence of a majority of MPs. If he has lost said confidence, the leader of the next largest block of MPs shall be asked if he can instead govern.

If this were the US Congress, the Tories would effectively have a majority. That's because all they have to do is routinely pull a couple dozen Liberals to vote with them. It doesn't happen in Canada, because the party lines are so set in stone. That's what makes the idea of Tories in a Liberal-NDP led cabinet so absurd. If that were the system (like Obama keeping Gates on in Defence), there wouldn't be a Liberal-NDP government in the first place!

This is ridiculous -- the Conservatives and Liberals are (or should be, who knows how far left Dion has/is planning on taking them) closer in ideology than the Libs and the NDP, fiscally. You saw that with the Throne Speech last week (feels like ages ago, eh?), when Dion and the Liberals voted with the government at the behest of the NDP.

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The opinions expressed on this blog represent my own and not those of my employer or any organization I may be affiliated with.In addition, my thoughts and opinions change from time to time. I consider this a necessary consequence of having an open mind. This blog is intended to provide a semi-permanent point in time snapshot and manifestation of the various ideas running around my brain, and as such any thoughts and opinions expressed within out-of-date posts may not the same, nor even similar, to those I may hold today.

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Who is Dave Cournoyer? I am a writer, blogger, communicator, occasional media pundit, political watcher, & proud life-long Albertan. I studied Political Science at the University of Alberta and have served as Vice-President (External) of the U of A Students' Union, Chair of the Council of Alberta University Students, and communications coordinator for Alberta's official opposition party.