To mark today’s opening of the Atlantic hurricane season for 2011, just like we did last year, and have done many years before, we’re going to have a hurricane season prediction contest.

As an incentive this year, I’m offering a fabulous prize to one lucky winner: a one-year subscription to Katy Magazine. No joke.

If that’s not your bag, you can have a shrink-wrapped, hardcover copy of Oceanic Wilderness.

To enter the contest all you need do is, in the comments below: Predict the number of named storms and number of hurricanes (first tiebreaker). As a second tiebreaker guess how far, in miles, the nearest hurricane landfall will be to Galveston Island.

It’s as simple as that.

I’ll even do your homework for you by providing the estimates of various seasonal forecasting services for this year.

Although I respect the experts and what they’re trying to do, seasonal hurricane forecasting remains a chancy business. Even the best forecasters often do little better than the predictive value of a five-year or ten-year running average.

This means you’ve got a good chance to beat them. So give it a try.

2010 CONTEST WINNER

I also want to call attention to the best guessers from last year’s contest. There were 19 named storms last year, 12 hurricanes and the closest hurricane landfall to Galveston was Soto la Marina, Mexico (Alex, 450 miles). Six readers correctly guessed 19 named storms:

Ricky and Jeff were closest with 11 hurricanes, and therefore it goes to the second tiebreaker, of which Ricky had the closest guess. Ricky: Let me know if you want the Katy Magazine subscription, or would prefer a package of science books.

NOTE: Contest closes June 10, as in no entries accepted after that time.