Decent Skiing This Weekend

The 2nd half of this week was quite warm, we hit 59 in Portland today and Government Camp was in the 40s the last two days.

But good news for skiing, a cooler airmass moves inland Saturday and temperatures cool. I expect 2-4″, all above Government Camp’s 4000′ elevation. By night ski time the sticking snow level should finally drop down to around 4,000.

Colder temperatures Sunday mean a pretty good weekend for skiing, especially considering I see another round of warm rains Tuesday-Thursday this coming week.

There will be another, cooler, period of 3-5 days starting next Saturday. All models are in agreement with a cool trough moving through the West. Unfortunately they all show mild westerly flow returning in early February. Here are the ECMWF ensembles; the top section shows maximum temperatures for each 12 hour period.

Note the low point around February 1st. I have noticed in cool patterns these numbers are a little low for PDX. But mid 40s sound good. The lower section shows minimums for each 12 hour period. Looks like frost will return for a few days with the cool spell. I’m feeling more confident the 24 degree low in November will be our coldest temperature of this winter…

Chief Meteorologist Mark Nelsen

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This entry was posted on Friday, January 22nd, 2016 at 11:36 pm and is filed under Weather. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
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Gosh, it sure was nice today, took the dogs for a walk at River Island Metro where they have made a lot of improvements this past year. It’s not officially open to the public but if you are out this way near Barton Park do stop by and enjoy a walk by the river.

Looking at the video from the East coast. Sure glad I don’t have to put up with that mess. A snowstorm of 2-4 inches would be nice but 24-30, no way. That is a segue into our chances of snow next weekend, no way. Maybe down to 1500 ft but none on the Valley floor. I do hope I am wrong because I would like to see some snow before our chances run out. In the meantime mostly cloudy and low 50,s today. Between November 1 and January 31 we usually see around 19 inches of rain. So far this time around we have seen 27.47. So we have a decent shot of hitting 30 inches. It has been a very wet Winter. However Spring is near so drier weather is at hand. Just not over the next few days. Peace.

Sorry Dan…. Wasn’t low 50’s today in Salem, but good try anyway. 2-4 inches is not a snowstorm in any way shape or form as well. And honestly, just quit saying how you hope it snows.. We all know that isn’t true, you hope everyday you wake up its Phoenix weather outside…

Hillbilly Ted, maybe you and Dan should go get a room somewhere, turn the heat way up, zip a couple sleeping bags together and give each other warm hugs. Keep on chuggin’ on Chris. We all see what you posted and its true. I hope its quite the marine layer of a summer, which it probably will be.

Btw, I remember when Dan was saying maybe that models would be wrong all winter with rain amounts. Saying we’d have maybe 10% of what they’re saying. I guess he was way wrong. Looks like we are actually in a temperate climate after all. Not a desert lol.

I, for one, hope Dannie gets his wish – that the weather will be different from day to day and that Spring is near and that things may change from day to day and that Barton is actually in the Twilight Zone and that the agricultural hobbit gets his old man pants on front to back and that peace occurs in Salem – the capital of boredom – and that all’s well that ends well and that the aforementioned Salem gets ten feet of something (your thoughts here) and that rain falls down – not up, but doesn’t dampen Dannie’s dystopic attitude and that we never, ever, ever have to hear about how OLD the guy from Barton is again.

But, I digress. Do these guys have some kind of prison connection, or is it just two peas – you know.

Not to restate the blindingly obvious, but, here’s a revelation for those among you who may have been unconscious for the last month or so: It has been a very wet Winter.

Chris who the hell are you to tell me what I think or want. I really hate it when somebody like you says something like that. Not that I have to justify myself to you about anything. As for it not hitting the low 50,s yesterday it hit 49. That is within the range Mark gives himself a check for on his forecasts. He allows himself 3 degrees and I was off by 1. You are an Idiot Cris. I don’t care if you are offended. I get offended when I read the garbage from you and you little troll friends.

Guess what germantown road I like it where I live. If you don’t like Salem then stay away. Anytime I see the news about the Portland metro area it is because of the homeless camping on the street, or drug needles in the polluted river, or the freak parades, or the gang shootings, or the armed robberies. Well guess what every city has them. Portland also has museums and parks and lots of fine entertainment. But when you trash Salem you show your ignorance. It is a great place to live and has a lot to offer. But if you find it boring then stay away. But if you want to compare Portland to Salem then I guess it it fair to compare Portland to Seattle. Where is the Portland MLB or NFL teams. Salem/Keizer is about 200,000. Portland is about 700,000. You have more of both the good and the bad. I love my city and Portland as well. Hey here’s a piece of advice if you don’t want to be bored. Spend some time on Burnside. Guaranteed to have plenty of excitement.

Yeah, I noticed that the GFS has changed dramatically over the past 24 hours, but I was hopeful with the 12z EURO showing a low off of the southern Oregon coast at hour 216 with cool temps (certainly not cold, but cool) in place. Since it’s a long way off I’m hopeful that things will improve as time moves on; however, I know how things around here go, and I know that everything must line up just right for snow to happen. I’m desperately trying to keep those forks away 😉 lol

I did notice that the 00z was cooler again. EURO looks just really odd, but it’s pretty cool. Since the charts I look at are on the global scale I cannot tell if there’s offshore flow or onshore flow with the cool temps, I would guess mostly onshore, but still a ways out.

That last post was sloppy, sorry. I should have said that the link to the EURO that I shared lacks much detail. I see much more detail for the GFS. ALSO: tonight’s EURO run looked weird, just to clarify. I’m done… lol

MARK’S TWITTER FEED

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