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Another Newt come-back: Stranger things have happened

Newt Gingrich not only lost in the Iowa Republican caucuses; he rounded up barely half as many votes as his three top rivals.

The only aggressive campaigner in Iowa who finished far behind the former U.S. House speaker and Georgia congressman was Rep. Michele Bachmann, who's dropped out.

And Gingrich didn’t beat Texas Gov. Rick Perry – who teetered on the edge of quitting before deciding to hang around – by all that much.

But one thing that may help Gingrich remain a contender is that, even though he was a big loser, there may really have been no big winners.

Sure, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who edged former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum in a photo finish, has bragging rights.

He ratcheted up his Iowa efforts only in the last weeks before the caucuses after earlier almost writing the state off. Moreover, Santorum and third-place finisher Ron Paul likely won’t remain competitive over the long haul, even if for different reasons.

But Romney also raised expectations about his showing in Iowa and then barely beat Santorum, a blip in Iowa polls until the final days before the caucuses. And 75 percent of Iowans opted for someone other than Romney – about the same as in 2008.

That, of course, stokes smoldering coals of doubt about whether he can mobilize the GOP base against President Barack Obama. They glow brightly in spite of polls suggesting that Republicans think Romney would run stronger against the president than other Republicans.

So Gingrich’s hopes remain alive, even if just barely.

He’s made it clear – and none too soon – that he’s through being Mr. Nice Guy.

His whining about Romney’s negative campaigning – and of course, it was pretty nasty – might impress some academic types and good-government crusaders. That’s more likely if they overlook the fact that, before he reinvented himself, Gingrich sometimes condoned much the same.

Anyway, GOP voters are more interested in what candidates can do to fix the country and – as a pre-requisite in their view – beat Obama.

In other words, welcome to the NFL, Newt.

Meanwhile, he faces a bumpy road ahead.

Surveys suggest that Romney is poised to dominate Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary. Sure, Gingrich can – if he hits the frontrunner hard and effectively – pull him down a bit and let Santorum move up some. But not much; indeed, it’s hard not to wonder if he’s more interested in hurting Romney than in helping himself.

Gingrich’s last chances for a come-back likely will be in South Carolina on Jan. 21 and Florida on Jan. 31. Carolina still looks promising. Florida may be, too, but less so. And it will be more expensive to make a big splash there, something that favor's Romney and his fat campaign treasury.

Unless Gingrich has turned the tide, pickings will be increasingly slim after that.

If he’s still in the hunt, he could carry Georgia on March 6 and maybe Tennessee on the same day. He’d also have a good chance that day in Virginia, but – barring success in a pending legal action – he won’t be on the ballot.

Meanwhile, Republicans in Romney’s home state and in neighboring Vermont also vote on March 6.

So Gingrich probably won’t make it back to the front of the pack.

But, as shown by Santorum’s meteoric ascent in Iowa and the Gingrich campaign’s earlier Lazarus-like revival, strange things can happen.