Locked out and looking for answers

The NBA lockout is reality, the nightmare fans have been dreading, even as millions tuned in to watch one of the most compelling playoffs in league history.

How did this happen? What do fans need to know about the economic dispute most wish would just go away? Is there reason to believe the dispute can be settled in time for the 2011-12 season to begin, as scheduled, on Nov. 12?

Is it truly possible there may be no season at all?

Express-News NBA reporter Mike Monroe has answers:

How did this happen?

The owners claim they have lost $300 million each of the past two seasons, proof, they say, that their business model is broken. To fix it, they want major changes in an economic relationship with the players that evolved through 40 years of collective bargaining. These include a hard salary cap and a major salary giveback. The players are skeptical of the owners’ claims of losses, and, while willing to take less money, reject the hard cap as a “non-starter.”

What’s the real issue?

As it is in every such negotiation: money. In this case, the split of a $3.8 billion pie that is expected to grow in future seasons. Under the old deal, the players got 57 percent of the pie. The owners want that share to shrink. The magic number is the percentage with which both sides can live.

What’s next?

Even when a work stoppage has been called, U.S. labor law requires both sides to continue bargaining. This is what happened in 1998, the last time there was a lockout, and the two sides on Thursday said they will meet again in the next 2-3 weeks.

When the NFL locked out its players in March, the union decertified, and some players sued the league in federal court. Will NBA players follow suit?

For now, the union has rejected this tactic, with executive director Billy Hunter saying the executive committee does not think it necessary.

What are the key dates?

Using the 1998-99 lockout as a guide, this is what seems likely until a new agreement is reached:

• Training camps are scheduled to open in early October. If there is no agreement on a new CBA by mid-September, expect the league to begin canceling the first week of exhibition games.

• If the dispute continues into October, the remainder of the preseason likely will be canceled.

• By the third week of October, the first batch of regular-season games will begin to be canceled.

• Around Christmas, commissioner David Stern will set a “drop-dead date,” likely in mid-January, after which the entire season will be canceled.

What will the locked out players do until this thing is settled?

The union has plans to run training-conditioning camps in numerous locations this summer, and most players have had time to plan their own offseason skills/conditioning regimens. Many have said they will play overseas, and technically they are free to do so. As a practical matter, few teams in the best international leagues will want to offer big contracts to players who may have to return to the NBA when, and if, the season resumes.

Could the entire season really be canceled?

This dispute is even more contentious than the 1998-99 standoff that cut 32 regular-season games. We’re talking major changes in the way the teams do business with the players. The chances the entire season is wiped out seem no worse than 50-50.