Riding the wave of a 2 game winning streak, the Seahawks find themselves slowly surfing towards the East Coast for a 10am meeting with a Dolphins club that looks very much like one whose season and playoff hopes has finally been harpooned. Having now lost 3 games in row, the once mighty Phins will have had 10 days to stew over their loss to the lowly Bills by the time they greet the Seahawks in Miami. Will they roll over and allow themselves to be pecked over … or is there still some fight left in this Dolphins team? Here are 5 Keys to Victory that the Seahawks will have to accomplish if they are to fly out of Sun Life Stadium in Miami with a win …

Key #1: Beach the Bottle-nosed Battering Rams …

During early part of their schedule, the Dolphins looked like a team that might be able to put up some respectable numbers on the ground …

Dolphins Games (Weeks 2-4)

Week

Opponent …

Score

Yards Rushing/Carries

TD

Game Notes/Highlights …

2

vs. Raiders

35-13 (WIN)

263 Yds on 43 Car

4

R. Bush 172 Yds. and 2 TD

3

vs. NY Jets

20-23 (LOSS)

185 Yds on 43 Car

2

R. Bush 61 Yds./D. Thomas 69 Yds/1 TD

4

at Cardinals

21-24 (LOSS)

86 Yds on 29 Car

1

R. Bush 67 Yds.

In Weeks 2-4 … the Dolphins averaged 178 Yards Rushing/Game and had 7 TD’s on the ground.

But since that time, the running game has been pretty much a non-factor …

Dolphins Games (Weeks 5-11)

Week

Opponent …

Score

Yards Rushing/Carries

TD

Game Notes/Highlights …

5

at Bengals

17-13 (WIN)

68 Yds on 35 Car

2

R. Bush 48 Yds./1 TD

6

vs. Rams

17-14 (WIN)

36 Yds on 17 Car

0

R.Bush 17 Yds (1.4 Yds Rush)

7

BYE

NA

NA

NA

NA

8

At Jets

30-9 (WIN)

97 Yds on 33 Car

1

R.Bush 59 Yds.

9

at Colts

20-23 (LOSS)

84 Yds on 18 Car

1

R.Bush 41 Yds/1 TD

10

vs. Titans

3-37 (LOSS)

54 Yds on 15 Car

0

R.Bush 21 Yds

11

at Bills

14-19 (LOSS)

60 Yds on 24 Car

0

R.Bush 20 Yds

So since Week 5 … the Dolphins have averaged just 66.5 Yards/Game and have only 4 Rushing Touchdowns over that time.

Prior to their game with the Titans, Dolphins head coach Joe Philbin talked about his team’s ineptitude on the ground … and about his desire to re-establish the run …

"Early on in the season if you looked at us and got a profile of us, I'd tell you we're a team that can run the football and defend the run extremely well," Coach Joe Philbin said. "Frankly the second part of the season, that hasn't stayed true to form necessarily. It's an area we have to solidify again and get back to basics on both sides of the ball. It's something we need to improve upon because if you looked at us after four weeks you say, 'Boy these guys can run and defend the run.' And it's not a 180 from there but it's not what it was."

And Philbin has become increasingly frustrated with his running backs. During their 37-3 drubbing at the hands of the Titans at home, Reggie Bush was benched after the second series of the 1st Half for fumbling the football for the 2nd time in 2 weeks. But though he’s had nowhere close to a stellar season by any means, it shouldn’t be forgotten exactly who Reggie Bush is and what he’s capable of. As the 2005 Heisman Trophy Winner and a former college star under Pete Carroll at USC, Reggie Bush was one of the most explosive and dynamic players in the nation coming in to the NFL. Last season, Bush ran for 1,086 yards and sported a 5.0 yards/rush average (11th in the league in Yards/Carry) as a Dolphin, so he is quite capable of burning opposing defenses.

Continuing to shut down the Dolphin running attack … and making this team one dimensional … will very much be key to the Seahawks success in Miami. On paper, it looks highly likely that’s exactly what will happen …

The Dolphins come in to this game averaging 100.9 Yards Rushing/Game (22nd in the NFL).

The Seahawks on the season have given up an average of 100.6 Yards/Game on the ground (12th Best in the NFL) … and come in to this game having allowed only 48 Rushing First Downs (11th Best in the league).

And outside of their 2 performances against San Francisco and Minnesota, the Seahawks Defense has surrendered just 588 yards on the ground for an average of just 73.5 Yards/Game – which would be far and away the best in the game.

But those 2 performances are precisely why the Seahawks and their fans should be a bit nervous coming in to this game. Dolphins Offensive Coordinator (Seahawks OC in 1999) and former Packers Head Coach Mike Sherman has undoubtedly broken down every inch of film from the 49er and Viking games, looking for tendencies and weaknesses in the Seahawks run defense that he can look to similarly exploit. With 10 days to game plan and to stew over an emotional loss, I fully expect the Phins to come in to this meeting with the Hawks with an attitude and the idea of establishing the run. If the Dolphins are able to show that their running game is at least a threat, that would certainly go a long ways towards taking the burden off of rookie QB Ryan Tannehill to win the game – which is precisely why I believe that’s exactly what they will try to do. Ensuring that this Miami team stays one dimensional is definitely a key to this game … and leads us straight in to Key to Victory #2 …

It was a moment that many Dolphins fans rejoiced … and many fans in Seattle (including myself) groaned, as we were hoping that somehow Ryan Tannehill would fall to #12 so the Seahawks could finally land themselves a franchise quarterback. In fact, rumors persisted prior to the draft that Pete Carroll LOVED Ryan Tannehill, so the Seahawks were probably hoping for that as well. Oh how times have changed though. Just 7 short months later, how many in Seattle would honestly exchange quarterbacks with the Dolphins now? While Russell Wilson has at times looked like a franchise superstar in the making … Tannehill has more often than not looked like the rookie that he is. Even a brief comparison of the numbers reveals the stark contrast between the two …

Ryan Tannehill vs. Russell Wilson

QB

Pass Comp

Pass Att

Comp%

Yards

TDS

INTS

QB Rating/NFL Rank

Total QBR/NFL Rank

Tannehill

179

308

58.1%

2,120

6

11

70.8 (29th)

48.0 (26th)

Wilson

157

253

62.1%

1,827

15

8

90.5 (12th)

56.1 (17th)

Almost any way you slice and dice the numbers, Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins passing attack have been fairly inept in 2012 …

Ryan Tannehill QB Rating (By Period)

Period

QB Rating

NFL Rank

1st Half

72.9

(28th)

2nd Half

69.0

(29th)

4th Quarter

72.3

(27th)

The Dolphins come in to this game averaging just 209.0 Yards Passing/Game (25th in the NFL) … so Richard Sherman and the rest of the Seahawks secondary can basically take the day off, right? Not exactly.

In reality, Ryan Tannehill is ahead of the curve of where most NFL rookies normally are at because (for those who might not realize it) OC Mike Sherman was Tannehill’s head coach at Texas A&M from 2008 to 2011. Under Sherman, the Dolphins are using virtually the same offensive system that he ran at A&M, so Tannehill naturally has quite a grasp of it. While Tannehill hasn’t racked up tons of yards this year … and has had his share of mistakes … he has also shown that he CAN make plays down the field.

The Dolphins and Seahawks both have 24 Plays that have gone for 20 Yards+ (tied for 25th in the NFL)

The Dolphins and Seahawks are both tied with 11.0 Yards/Completion (tied for 12th BEST in the NFL)

Also, Tannehill and the Phins have shown that when they get down in to scoring position, they generally punch the ball in …

On the season, the Dolphins have scored TD’s on 54.17% of their trips inside the Red Zone (12th Best in the NFL)

AT HOME they have been even better … as the Dolphins have scored TD’s on 75% of their trips inside the Red Zone (#1 in the NFL).

Leading the Dolphins receiving attack is 4 year pro Brian Hartline – former Ohio State wide receiver and a real key to the Buckeye’s National Championship in 2008. During his Junior Year and final season at OSU, he showed himself to be a deep threat to be reckoned with, averaging 22.8 yards/catch. Hartline hasn’t exactly torn up the league in Miami (because up until now he’s had no one to really get him the ball) … but he’s definitely shown he can make plays this year. A big, tall receiver (6’2” 199 Pounds), Hartline comes in to this game having clearly demonstrated that he is a downfield threat as he has … 53 receptions, 790 Yards (14.9 Yards/Catch), 1 TD … and 8 Catches that have gone for 20 Yards or more.

On the other side, former Rainbow Warrior Davone Bess (5’10” 193 Pounds) is a possession receiver that has shown that he can make some plays downfield as well. On the season, he has 48 receptions, 586 Yards (12.2 Yards/Catch), 1 TD … and 7 Catches that have gone for 20 Yards or more.

Outside of those two though, there hasn’t been a whole lot of help for Tannehill honestly. Tight End Anthony Fassano (6’4” 255 Pounds) leads the team with 3 touchdown receptions, but he’s more of a short range option, as he’s had only 26 catches on the season … averages only 7.7 yards/catch … and has had no receptions that have gone for 20 yards or more. Reggie Bush (23 receptions, 194 yards, 0 TD) has been the only other true target coming out of the backfield, so the truth of the matter … is that this Dolphins’ receiving corps might just be the worst group in all of football. On paper at least, this looks like a crew that the Seahawks could totally dominate.

The Seahawks Defense comes in to this contest having allowed …

… just 296.8 Yards/Game (4th Best in the NFL)

… an average of 196.2 Yards Passing/Game (4th Best in the NFL)

… only 22 Passes of 20 Yards or More to be completed against them (5th BEST in the NFL)

… an average of just 16.1 Points/Game (4th Best in the NFL)

As you know, the Seahawks secondary is one of the best (if not THE BEST) in all of football. Their numbers certainly confirm that …

Seahawks Secondary Defense

Passed Defensed (NFL Rank)

Comp% Against (NFL Rank)

48 (8th MOST)

58.2% (7th BEST)

ProFootballFocus.com recently ranked Richard Sherman as their 3rd Best CB, noting that he has allowed only 48.1% of passes to be completed against him. Opposing QB’s have a QB Rating of just 46.1 when throwing his way. Gil Brandt of NFL.com meanwhile ranked Brandon Browner as his 6th Best CB, observing that of the 50 times he has been targeted, he has been “burned” only 22 times (a 44% rate). If Walter Thurmond can eventually assume the role of the starting Nickel CB and return to the form he had at Oregon, the Seahawks secondary could become a killing field for opposing QB’s.

And recently, there have been real indications that this Miami team could be poised for a head first plunge in to the Bermuda Triangle.

Over their last 3 games, the Dolphins Red Zone Offense has taken a real dive, as they have scored TD’s on 40% of their trips inside the Red Zone (23rd Best in the NFL)

Tannehill had a relatively good game in the loss to the Colts, but followed that up with a couple of real bottom feeder performances against the Titans and Bills …

Ryan Tannehill – Last 3 Games …

Opponent

Pass Comp

Pass Att

Completion%

Yards

TDS

INTS

At Colts

22

38

57.89%

290

1

0

vs. Titans

23

39

58.9%

217

0

3

At Bills

14

28

50%

141

1

2

In addition, Ryan Tannehill has been hobbled somewhat with a deeply bruised left knee recently and prior to the Buffalo game had been wearing a brace in practice. So, if the Seahawks don’t somehow lose their defensive intensity somewhere in a hurricane on their way to Miami, this is an offense that Seahawk defenders should be able to have their way with. We’ve thought that before though, which brings me to Key #3 …

Key #3: Bring the Vice …

The last time the Seahawks traveled East for an early game, we all felt pretty confident of victory as well. For some reason though, the Seahawks secondary made Lions WR Titus Young look like the second coming of Cliff Branch.

The facts are that this season the Seahawks are 1-4 on the road. In their 4 Road Losses, they allowed …

Arizona’s Kevin Kolb to look like Joe Montana in the 4th Quarter (Kolb had a 138.5 QB Rating) and to snatch victory right out of the Seahawks beaks in Week 1.

St. Louis’s punter Johnny Hekker to juke out the entire Seahawks defense on a fake field goal for a TD (to say nothing of Russell Wilson’s 3 interceptions) in Week 4.

San Francisco’s Frank Gore to bowl right over the league’s #3 rush defense for 131 yards in Week 7.

Detroit’s Matthew Stafford to come alive like Frankenstein’s monster, completing 69% of his passes for 352 yards and 3 touchdowns against a secondary that many experts said was the best in football in Week 8.

Indeed, since 2010 and the beginning of the Pete Carroll Era in Seattle, the Seahawks are now 4-7 in games that start at 10 A.M. in the Eastern Time Zone. (And before you ask … the Seahawks are 1-1 coming off of the Bye Week over that time frame.)

There’s been a lot of talk in recent weeks about how Seattle’s defense has performed at home versus on the road. So, I decided to do a little breakdown for myself and see exactly how true that was. Here are the results …

Seahawks Pass Defense (Home vs. Road)

Pass Comp%

Avg. Yards/Game Allwd

Total TD Allwd

Total INT

Sacks

QB Hits

Passes Defensed

Home

58.01%

211.2

3

5

17

34

24

Road

57.74%

210.8

6

4

11

23

24

Seahawks Run Defense (Home vs. Road)

Avg. Yards/Game Allwd

Avg. Yards/Rush

Total TD Allwd

Tackles for Loss

Opp Fumbles (#Def Recovered)

Home

109.4

4.88

3

21

11 (4 Rec by Def.)

Away

91.8

3.83

2

21

6 (2 Rec by Def.)

As you can see by the numbers above, there really isn’t a whole lot of true difference between the numbers at home vs. on the road. In reality, what’s truly affected those numbers you see above are exceptional performances and miscues (both for and against the Hawks) along the way (ie. Stafford, Gore, Peterson, 8 Sacks vs. Green Bay, etc.) If the Seahawks can just be consistent and play with the same level of urgency as they do at home … we could realistically see the same kind of performance from this team as we saw from them in Carolina.

The Seahawks Defensive Line play will very much be key in this game. The Dolphins offensive line DOES have some talent, as LT Jake Long has been a 3 time All-Pro selection the past 3 years … and C Mike Pouncey is having a Pro Bowl year, as he’s given up just 1 QB Hit and 1 QB Hurry all year long. That’s not good news for DE Chris Clemons and DT Brandon Mebane, as those will be tough match-ups for each. After starting off the season strong, both Clemons and Mebane have pulled something of a disappearing act in recent weeks. If the Seahawks are going to have success on the road, they’re going to need both of those guys to step up.

That said, the rest of the Dolphins offensive line has been somewhat of a sieve in recent weeks. Rookie RT Jonathan Martin (and Andrew Luck’s former blindside protector) has struggled in converting over to the right side … having allowed 3 sacks and 24 quarterback hurries going in to the Buffalo game. RG John Jerry has allowed 15 quarterback hurries on the season ... and the Seahawks old friend Richie Incognito (who mans the LG spot) has 7 Penalties going in to this game (tied for 8th Most in the league).

As far as pass protection is concerned, the Dolphins have actually compared pretty favorably with the Hawks for most of this season …

Pass Protection Comparison (w/NFL Rankings)

Category

Dolphins

Seahawks

Sacks Allowed

21 (13th)

19 (16th)

QB Hits Allowed

44 (13th MOST)

44 (13th MOST)

It’s in the area of penalties though where the differences have really become apparent in recent weeks …

Offensive Penalties Comparison

Category

Dolphins

Seahawks

Total Penalties

57 (18th MOST)

64 (6th MOST)

Last 3 Games

21

13

Last 3 Game Avg.

7.0 (8th MOST)

4.3 (Tied for 5th LEAST)

Miami’s Offensive Line is really starting to make mistakes and it’s costing them games. Generating pressure on this group (and Miami’s lack of ability to generate pressure on defense) has shown to be a surefire formula for how to beat them …

In the Dolphins 4 Wins This Season …

INT’s

Fumbles (#Lost)

Sacks Allwd

Opp. INT’s

Opp. Fumbles (#Lost)

Opp. Sacks Allwd

0

3 (2 Lost)

7

4

7 (4 Lost)

10

In the Dolphins 6 Losses This Season …

INT’s

Fumbles (#Lost)

Sacks Allwd

Opp. INT’s

Opp. Fumbles (#Lost)

Opp. Sacks Allwd

11

6 (Lost All)

13

4

4 (Lost None)

16

And it’s on Miami’s defense where we next shine our spotlight …

Key #4: Don’t Break the Line …

We come now to what I believe just might be THE biggest key for the Seahawks in this game – how Seattle’s Offensive Line performs against Miami’s defensive front 7. What do I mean by that? Before I get in to the details, let me show you some pertinent numbers …

Dolphins Defensive Statistics

Category

Dolphins Defense (NFL Rank)

Points/Game Allwd

20.5 (8th Best)

Rush Yds/Game Allwd

98.6 (9th Best)

Rush 1st Downs Allwd

39 (3rd Fewest)

3rd Down Conv%

33.1% (3rd Best)

Sacks

27 (4th Best)

Forced Fumbles

7 (16th Best)

TD% Allwd in Red Zone

37.14% (2nd Best)

TD% Allwd in Red Zone at Home

35.71% (tied 4th Best)

TD% Allwd in Red Zone (Last 3 Games)

40% (9th Best)

Despite their recent struggles as a team, the Dolphins enter this game still one of the top defenses in the NFL. They are extremely stout right up the middle and as you can see, opposing teams have had trouble both gaining yards on the ground and keeping their quarterbacks upright against this group. Let’s take a closer look at some of the individual 1:1 Battles in this game and you’ll see why I say Seattle's Offensive Line is going to have to bring its “A” Game on Sunday …

Cameron Wake vs. Russell Okung and/or Breno GiacominiThis Sunday, the Seahawks offense could very easily find itself caught in a wake. Who is Cameron Wake, you say? If you haven’t of him, you’d want him for your Fantasy Team – that’s for sure. As a former CFL Star, Cameron Wake (6’3” 258 pounds), you might say, is kind of the Dolphins version of Brandon Browner. Since coming to the Dolphins in 2009, he has been a terror for opposing QB’s. In 2010, Wake finished with 14.0 Sacks (3rd in the league). In 2011, Cameron Wake followed that up with 8.5 Sacks and 52 Quarterback Pressures (3rd in the NFL behind only Chris Long and Julius Peppers). This season through 10 games, Wake already has 9.5 Sacks (more than anyone on the Seahawks). Back on November 7th, Pro Football Focus released its list of the Top 51 Players in the NFL … ranking Wake #3 on the list. At that time, they noted Wake was leading the league with 55 quarterback disruptions … and last week added that Wake’s 41 combined sacks, hits and hurries also ranked #1 in the NFL.

In addition, Wake has 8 Tackles for Loss on the season (tied for 18th with guys like Bobby Wagner and John Abraham), so running against this guy isn’t going to be easy.If Russell Okung ends up facing Wake, he’s going to have his hands full … but so far in 2012 (outside of an early rash of penalties), he’s actually had an extremely good season. Through 10 games, Okung is yet to allow a sack and he has given up only 12 quarterback pressures. Okung has had big games in the past against big time pass rushers – just ask Julius Peppers. Because of that, I’d actually expect Miami to have Wake matched up against Giacomini (who has far more pressure on Wilson than Okung). This is the marquee match-up of the morning.

LDT Randy Starks vs. RG Paul McQuistan[Note: With Seattle’s guard situation, I’m presuming a lot in terms of who exactly is going to be playing LG and RG. I’m simply projecting that Carpenter should be ready to go after the Bye and that McQuistan gets the nod over Moffitt.]

Randy Starks, for those who don’t know a thing about him, is one of the premier defensive tackles in the game. Starks (6’3 305 Pounds) checked in at #47 on Pro Football Focus’s top 51 player list, as they noted that he had 26 QB disruptions on the year – the 2nd most of any defensive tackle. His 8 QB Hits leads all interior defensive lineman and he is 2nd on the team with 4.5 Sacks. He is having a Pro Bowl season, so McQuistan is going to be fairly busy on Sunday as well. Very quietly, McQuistan has been having a pretty good year himself. Outside of 1 false start and 2 holding penalties, he’s been rock solid, as he hasn’t allowed any sacks this year either. He’s going to have to continue to be a rock on Sunday, as Starks can be a jackhammer.

RDT Paul Solial vs. LG James CarpenterThough he might not show up prominently on the stat sheet, Paul Solial is a defender that Seahawk fans should get the highlighter out on. Solial is a BIG BOY (6’4” 345 Pounds) and in many ways is this team’s version of Brandon Mebane – a guy who can clog up the middle and shut down the running game. Coming in to this game, Solial has actually been statistically better than Mebane, as Solial has 6 Tackles for Loss (while Mebane only has 4). Carpenter is going to have to move this log out of the stream if Marshawn Lynch has any hopes of finding a running lane. Carpenter (6’5” 321 Pounds) vs. Solial (6’4” 345 Pounds) is a whole lot of beef right there.

As far as the rest of Miami’s front 7 is concerned, they can definitely cause trouble as well …

DE Jared Odrick 5 Tackles For Loss (same number as Chris Clemons)LB Koa Misi 4 Tackles For Loss (he has 3 forced fumbles this year)MLB Karlos Dansby 3 Tackles For Loss (he leads the team with 76 Tackles). LB Kevin Burnett (2nd on the team with 63 Tackles).

Last week, Football Outsiders released their updated analysis of offensive lines throughout the NFL. In that study, they ranked Seattle’s Offensive Line as the 6th Best Run Blocking team in all of football … noting that runs are stuffed at the line of scrimmage only 15% of the time – 3rd Best in the league (incidentally, the two top teams have a 14% stuff rate).

Even so, against this defensive front (on the road) I foresee Seattle having difficulty getting Marshawn Lynch going. Last week, Football Outsiders also released their Defensive Line rankings as well … and ranked Miami’s Defensive Line (Front 7) as the 5th Best in all of football (ahead of Seattle’s, who checked in at #12 on that list). According to them, opposing runners are being stuffed behind the line of scrimmage 23% of the time (7th best in the league) … and gain the fewest yards of any team in football 5-10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. That all brings us to Key to Victory #5 …

Free Willy …

In case you hadn’t heard yet … Russell Wilson is pretty good. How good has he been this year? Well, let me answer that by showing you this little graphic …

2012 Top 10 Performances by Rookie Quarterbacks (sorted by QB Rating)

Quarterback

Date/Opp

Comp

Att

Comp%

Yards

TD’s

INT’s

QB Rating

1. Robert Griffin III

11/18 vs. Eagles

14

15

93.3%

200

4

0

158.3

2. Robert Griffin III

9/9 vs. Saints

19

26

73.1%

320

2

0

139.9

3. Russell Wilson

10/14 vs. Patriots

16

27

59.3%

320

2

0

139.9

4. Russell Wilson

11/11 vs. Jets

12

19

63.2%

188

2

0

131.0

5. Russell Wilson

11/4 vs. Vikings

16

24

66.7%

173

3

0

127.3

6. Brandon Weeden

9/16 vs. Bengals

26

37

70.3%

322

2

0

114.9

7. Russell Wilson

9/16 vs. Cowboys

15

20

75.0%

151

1

0

112.7

8. Ryan Tannehill

10/14 vs. Rams

21

29

72.4%

185

2

0

112.0

9. Robert Griffin III

10/21 vs. Giants

20

28

71.4%

258

2

1

108.9

10. Andrew Luck

9/16 vs.Vikings

20

31

64.5%

224

2

0

107.5

So, of the Top 10 Performances by Rookie QB’s this year … Russell Wilson has 4 of those. Considering the level of competition, that’s frankly remarkable. And unlike the QB he’ll be opposing on Sunday, Russell Wilson has shown a remarkable ability to make big plays in crunch time …

Russell Wilson QB Rating (By Period)

Period

QB Rating

NFL Rank

1st Half

104.8

(7th Best)

2nd Half

76.7

(24th)

4th Quarter

96.5

(6th Best)

As you can see from the numbers I presented regarding the Dolphins Run Defense … the Seahawks are going to need some of Russell Wilson’s mojo on Sunday.

In addition to the Dolphins’ Front 7, Russell Wilson is also going to be going up against one of the top CB’s in the league and a guy that many people outside of Miami don’t know about – Sean Smith. Like Richard Sherman, Sean Smith (6’2” 215 pounds) showed that he could shut down opposing receivers, as through the first 4 weeks of the season QB’s completed just 42% of their passes when throwing in to his area (a passing rating of just 52.7). Sean Smith has 11 Passes Defensed on the year (tied for 5th in the NFL), so Sidney Rice may not put up Yahtzee numbers in this game as he will probably find himself matched up against Smith a lot on Sunday. Golden Tate, Zach Miller, and others are simply going to have to step up. But here too, the Seahawks may have struggles early in the passing game against this defense …

The Dolphins defense enters Sunday’s contest with 56 Passes Defensed (tied for #1 in the NFL with Chicago and Houston).

They also have allowed opposing QB’s to complete only 56.8% of their passes (5th Best in the NFL – ahead of Seattle).

That said, the numbers ALSO clearly show that plays can be made against this secondary …

Dolphins Passing Statistics

Category

Dolphins Pass Defense (NFL Rank)

Passing Yards/Game Allwd

278.0 (28th)

Passing 1st Downs Allwd

145 (MOST in the NFL)

Passes of 20 Yards+ Allwd

39 (3rd WORST)

Those numbers are clear indicators that Sean Smith has had very little help … and that things have started to go awry for this secondary. Richard Marshall started the first 4 weeks of the season at RCB and struggled, as opposing QB’s were able to complete 61% of their passes and posted a 101.2 QB Rating against him. He was lost for the season with a back injury after the Cardinals game and was replaced by Nolan Carroll (6’1” 205 Pounds), who (though he has 5 Passes Defensed and played very well early on) has continued those struggles of late. He committed 4 penalties in the Bills game (2 Pass Interference, 1 Illegal Contact, and 1 Holding) and played a key role in that loss. Due to the issues this group has been having, the Dolphins have been forced in to playing a lot of zone coverage – which teams have been successful against. There has been talk recently of elevating R.J. Stanford (5’10” 185 Pounds), 2nd Year player out of Utah to the starting RCB job, as he replaced Carroll (who was benched) in the 2nd Half of the Buffalo game. Stanford is reportedly faster and better in man-to-man coverage, but others have argued he is no more than a nickel back. Though SS Reshad Jones had a good game against Buffalo (14 Tackles and forced a fumble on Bills TE Scott Chandler), Sean Smith allowed Bills RW Stevie Johnson to catch 6 passes for 79 yards. Obviously, this secondary is not what it once was.

The Bills Ryan Fitzpatrick was able to complete 62.9% of his Passes and to connect on 2 Passes of 20 Yards or more in that game. Two weeks prior, Andrew Luck completed 62.5% of his passes and carved this defense up to the tune of 433 yards, 2 TD, and 7 Passes of 20 Yards or More allowed.

So, there is definite hope for Russell Wilson and the Seahawks heading in this game. Up until now, Pete Carroll and the coaching staff have not asked Wilson to be the one to shoulder the load and to carry them to victory. Against this Dolphins Defense though and the fact that Marshawn Lynch may conceivably struggle … all of that could change on Sunday. This game is set up perfectly for Russell Wilson to potentially have a big day. I’m projecting that by the time the clock reaches 00:00, he’ll be the one who’s the hero.

Bold Prediction …

Before I get to my parting thoughts, let me show you why there’s a large piece of me that’s a bit skeptical about this Dolphins team …

2012 Dolphins Strength of Schedule (as of Week 11)

Week

Opponent

Result

ESPN Opponent Power Ranking

1

at Houston Texans

10-30 (LOSS)

#1 Team

2

vs. Oakland Raiders

35-13 (WIN)

#28 Team

3

vs. New York Jets

20-23 (LOSS)

#26 Team

4

at Arizona Cardinals

21-24 (LOSS)

#22 Team

5

at Cincinnati Bengals

17-13 (WIN)

#19 Team

6

vs. St. Louis Rams

17-14 (WIN)

#23 Team

7

BYE

NA

NA

8

at New York Jets

30-9 (WIN)

#26 Team

9

at Indianapolis Colts

20-23 (LOSS)

#11 Team

10

vs. Tennessee Titans

3-37 (LOSS)

#25 Team

11

at Buffalo Bills

14-19 (LOSS)

#27 Team

Looking at the rankings of the teams the Dolphins have faced, I find myself asking, “Who has this team actually played?” I certainly don’t see any quality wins on the schedule there.

Of all the road games that the Seahawks have on their schedule … this one (to me) appears the most win-able. Because this game is on the road though, I foresee this being a fairly hard fought contest, as the Dolphins Defense will present problems for Seattle’s running game. Since this Dolphins Offense just might be one of the worst offenses in the league (if not THE worst offense) … I see them having a lot of difficulties against the Seahawks defense as well. I’d look for this to be a close game early … with the Seahawks pulling away late as the Dolphins defense will be spending a lot of time out on the field. Let’s call this one …

Seahawks 24Dolphins 10

Last edited by Hawkscanner on Tue Nov 20, 2012 3:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.

In the spirit of Thanksgiving, I wanted to bestow the blessing of an Early Edition preview of this game. Thought I would get this one out early, as this may take a while to get through. With Turkey Day imminent, we don’t want too many cases of indigestion out there. Enjoy and Happy Thanksgiving to all!

As always, I’d love to hear what thoughts you all have as we head in to this game.

"Riding the wave of a 2 game winning streak, the Seahawks find themselves slowly surfing towards the East Coast for a 10am meeting with a Dolphins club that looks very much like one whose season and playoff hopes has finally been harpooned."

drdiags wrote:Nice writeup. Was wondering why you included the Cardinals game rushing total in the week 2-4 group, when the low totals made it fit right in with the week 5-11 results?

I believe his point was to show that their running game is trending sharply downward between the first month and the games down the stretch. The Cards game should be included in the first group as it's statistically relevant to that first month's rushing performance.

Feel free to contact me if you need legal assistance. I have a great lawyer that helped me with an ex who violated my privacy and kept harassing me on MySpace and Facebook. He's very good. And there is legal precedent. - linuxpro

drdiags wrote:Nice writeup. Was wondering why you included the Cardinals game rushing total in the week 2-4 group, when the low totals made it fit right in with the week 5-11 results?

I believe his point was to show that their running game is trending sharply downward between the first month and the games down the stretch. The Cards game should be included in the first group as it's statistically relevant to that first month's rushing performance.

Yeah that was part of my thinking with doing that. The other part was honestly based upon an earlier article that I read from a writer at the Miami Herald, who segregated things that way (looked at Weeks 2-4 and afterwards).

Outside of those 2 weeks, the Dolphins have really struggled running the ball with any kind of consistency. Now, for those who might be asking themselves, "Why did you make a point of making that one of my keys?" ... it's because Philbin himself has made a point of wanting to establish the running game. And it makes complete sense why they'd want to: they have a rookie QB, they don't want to put all the pressure upon him alone to win the game, it would improve Tannehill's ability to really thrive in the passing game (i.e. the defense now has to concern itself with the run) ... and Seattle HAS already been gashed by a couple of running backs (albeit elite ones) this year. Honestly continuing to shut down the Dolphins run game (in Miami) should be a priority. Just throwing that out there.

Lords of Scythia wrote:"Riding the wave of a 2 game winning streak, the Seahawks find themselves slowly surfing towards the East Coast for a 10am meeting with a Dolphins club that looks very much like one whose season and playoff hopes has finally been harpooned."

drdiags wrote:Okay smokin, sounds good but where is week 1 if we need to look at a first month look?

I just got through answering that one above. That WAS a part of my thinking with looking at Weeks 2-4 (and then from then on out) -- showing that early on in the year it looked like the Dolphins might be able to get the running game going ... but that things petered out after that.

Lords of Scythia wrote:"Riding the wave of a 2 game winning streak, the Seahawks find themselves slowly surfing towards the East Coast for a 10am meeting with a Dolphins club that looks very much like one whose season and playoff hopes has finally been harpooned."

Hawkscanner wrote:There’s been a lot of talk in recent weeks about how Seattle’s defense has performed at home versus on the road. So, I decided to do a little breakdown for myself and see exactly how true that was. Here are the results …

Seahawks Pass Defense (Home vs. Road)

Pass Comp%

Avg. Yards/Game Allwd

Total TD Allwd

Total INT

Sacks

QB Hits

Passes Defensed

Home

58.01%

211.2

3

5

17

34

24

Road

57.74%

210.8

6

4

11

23

24

Seahawks Run Defense (Home vs. Road)

Avg. Yards/Game Allwd

Avg. Yards/Rush

Total TD Allwd

Tackles for Loss

Opp Fumbles (#Def Recovered)

Home

109.4

4.88

3

21

11 (4 Rec by Def.)

Away

91.8

3.83

2

21

6 (2 Rec by Def.)

As you can see by the numbers above, there really isn’t a whole lot of true difference between the numbers at home vs. on the road. In reality, what’s truly affected those numbers you see above are exceptional performances and miscues (both for and against the Hawks) along the way (ie. Stafford, Gore, Peterson, 8 Sacks vs. Green Bay, etc.).

Thanks for these facts. Seattle is 1-4 on the road because of a handful of lucky plays and a rookie QB's nerfed playbook, not because of some ominous boogeyman in this team's fundamentals. We're doing fine.

Hawkscanner wrote:There’s been a lot of talk in recent weeks about how Seattle’s defense has performed at home versus on the road. So, I decided to do a little breakdown for myself and see exactly how true that was. Here are the results …

Seahawks Pass Defense (Home vs. Road)

Pass Comp%

Avg. Yards/Game Allwd

Total TD Allwd

Total INT

Sacks

QB Hits

Passes Defensed

Home

58.01%

211.2

3

5

17

34

24

Road

57.74%

210.8

6

4

11

23

24

Seahawks Run Defense (Home vs. Road)

Avg. Yards/Game Allwd

Avg. Yards/Rush

Total TD Allwd

Tackles for Loss

Opp Fumbles (#Def Recovered)

Home

109.4

4.88

3

21

11 (4 Rec by Def.)

Away

91.8

3.83

2

21

6 (2 Rec by Def.)

As you can see by the numbers above, there really isn’t a whole lot of true difference between the numbers at home vs. on the road. In reality, what’s truly affected those numbers you see above are exceptional performances and miscues (both for and against the Hawks) along the way (ie. Stafford, Gore, Peterson, 8 Sacks vs. Green Bay, etc.).

Thanks for these facts. Seattle is 1-4 on the road because of a handful of lucky plays and a rookie QB's nerfed playbook, not because of some ominous boogeyman in this team's fundamentals. We're doing fine.

You know, that was a pretty interesting lesson for me actually. That part of the piece was basically a forethought. I've heard a lot of talk about the difference between this Seahawks team AT HOME vs. on the Road ... so I decided to look in to that in terms of the defense. Is this Seahawks Defense honestly different On the Road vs. At Century Link Field? That one took me a little while, as I was basically looking for the smoking gun -- the one statistic or set of statistics that you hoped really jumped out that made you say, "Ah HA! I knew it!"

Well ... I DID actually find that Smoking Gun -- I just didn't find it where I thought I'd find it. The Smoking Gun turns out to be those Big Plays (both that this Seahawks team has been made ... and has been made against them).

As I said earlier ...

outside of their 2 performances against San Francisco and Minnesota, the Seahawks Defense has surrendered just 588 yards on the ground for an average of just 73.5 Yards/Game – which would be far and away the best in the game.

That said, I realize that's unrealistic to simply "eliminate" those 2 games when looking at defensive statistics and playing the "What IF" game. But what if we tweaked that slightly by simply eliminating a couple of the big plays made against us? What kind of impact would that have on the numbers?

In the Vikings Game, Adrian Peterson had a few big runs against us the game. He had a 74 Yard Run on the 2nd Play of the 1st Quarter. In the 2nd Quarter, (on back to back plays) he had a run of 24 yards ... followed up by a run of 15 yards. Just to see what the Seahawks Run Defense Statistics would look like ... let's simply eliminate those 3 plays. That's 113 Yards right there. As it stands right now, Seattle has allowed 1006 Yards on the ground this season (which ranks 12th in the League in terms of fewest yards/rushing allowed). If we eliminated those 3 plays ... that would take us down to 893 Yards (which would rank #4 in the NFL ahead of Pittsburgh). That (in my mind) is much more reflective of how good this Seattle team truly has been in stopping the run all year long.

On the flip side of that argument, let's take a look at the Seahawks Sacks totals. Looking at the ledger sheet, we see that we have 28 Sacks -- tied for 5th in the NFL with Chicago and Arizona. Looks pretty impressive ... until you stop to consider the fact that 8 of those Sacks were in the Green Bay game. On the season, this Seahawks team has averaged 2.8 Sacks/Game. What if we adjusted those numbers down from that Green Bay Game to our season average -- let's say 3 sacks in that game? That would put this team at 23 Sacks ... which would put this team tied for 16th in the NFL with teams like the 49ers, Lions, and Bills. Honestly from what I've seen out of this team on a consistent basis ... that may be a more accurate picture of this team's pass rush capabilities.

Point being, the Smoking Gun that I discovered were the impact of Big Plays. Seattle's performance against Adrian Peterson and Frank Gore isn't necessarily reflective of this Seahawk team's overall ability to stop the run ... just like Seattle's performance in 1/2 against the Packers isn't necessarily reflective of their pass rush ability (at least up to this point). The lesson that I walked away from doing that little exercise was that it's what a team does on a CONSISTENT basis that's most important when evaluating just how good they are at whatever we're talking about.

falcongoggles wrote:Thread of the week right here. This is some seriously in-depth stuff. I love your excel spreadsheets in hawks colors.

Thanks for all the props guys ... and yes to Ivotuk -- this one DID take hours to work on. BUT, it's more of a labor of love for me. I started the day after the Jets win gathering info ... and slowly pecked away at this one as I had time. Though I'd love to take credit for the spreadsheet colors ... those would be the default ones of the board. They obviously WOULD have been the exact colors I would have chosen though.

If you've not checked out Scott's Thread ... it's definitely a must read and a confirmation of basically everything I've laid out here.

Well, Carpenter was listed as a limited participant in practice on Wednesday. That's a good sign, as they're going to need him - Solial and Starks are very effective at clogging things up the middle and collapsing the pocket. Hopefully Carpenter will be ready to go on Sunday. We'll see for sure.

Hope you all are having a very good and Happy Thanksgiving. I just got through watching the Lions-Texans game. Sure was nice to see the Texans give the Seahawks something to be thankful for today.

Interesting slate of games yesterday. As a result of their loss to the Texans, the Lions have virtually eliminated themselves from Post-season contention. BUT ... don't look now -- the Redskins are a dark horse contender that could conceivably make a late season charge down the stretch.

This just in -- RGIII is awesome. Here is an updated list of the Top 10 Performances by Rookie QB's this season ...

So, Wilson and RGIII are now tied ... each having 4 of the top 10 Performances this season. If RGIII continues to play with that -- given their remaining schedule, I don't preclude the possibility at all that the Redskins could get to 10 wins (it would be a long shot for sure, but not impossible by any means).

As I mentioned in the main piece, this game is set up perfectly for Wilson to perhaps have a similar performance on Sunday to the one RGIII had yesterday. The Dolphins defense has some extremely good run defenders (i.e. Solial, Starks, Wake, and Dansby) ... and they have been very good at shutting down opposing runners all year long ... so Marshawn Lynch may have a hard time getting going in this game.

BUT, as I mentioned before, the Dolphins secondary has been a real Achilles Heel especially of late ...

Dolphins Passing Statistics

Category

Dolphins Pass Defense (NFL Rank)

Passing Yards/Game Allwd

278.0 (28th)

Passing 1st Downs Allwd

145 (MOST in the NFL)

Passes of 20 Yards+ Allwd

39 (3rd WORST)

Andrew Luck carved up this Dolphins secondary to the tune of 433 yards ... 2 TD's ... and 7 Passes of 20 Yards or More completed. Could we see a similar performance by Wilson on Sunday? He certainly displayed the long ball against the Patriots ... and given the fact that stopping the run is the Dolphins strength ... Pete Carroll will probably need the take the reins off Wilson and for the first time all season ask him to carry the team to victory.

As I mentioned in Scott's thread, Wilson is going to have to show that he can complete some deep passes against this secondary. In their last meeting with the Jets, the Dolphins were able to tee off and send extra defenders on the blitz, as Mark Sanchez showed very clearly that he didn't have any true deep threats that the secondary needed to truly worry about. Expect the Dolphins to similarly gear up to blitz Wilson until he shows them that it's a bad idea not to do that.

Red Bryant sat out Wednesday's practice with a sore foot and is now listed as Doubtful for this game. Given that the Dolphins may make an exerted effort to try to establish the run in this game, that's not good news, especially given the fact that Brandon Mebane and Chris Clemons have really pulled a disappearing act of sorts in recent weeks.

James Carpenter is still listed as "Questionable" for this game (Concussion) -- we'll see if the medical staff clears him to play Sunday. As the interior of that Dolphins D Line is very good, the Hawks need all the help up front that they can get. Given that he was a full participant yesterday, it looks like that will happen.

On a positive note -- K.J. Wright looks like all systems are go for him. That may help offset Bryant's loss if he can't end up going. Clinton McDonald also looks to be healthier than he's been in awhile -- that may also help offset things as well.

As far as the Dolphins are concerned ... looks like they'll be virtually at full strength. I'm not seeing any true significant injuries for them at this point.

Just a few thoughts and notes with 48 Hours to go until Kickoff ...

*Edit to Add ... for those who are thinking that Seattle could come out flat in this game (given that they are coming off a BYE and haven't played in 14 Days), consider this: the Dolphins haven't played in 10 days and are coming off 3 straight losses. Is the rust factor going to come in to play? Seattle is 4-7 in 10AM East Coast Games ... and 1-1 coming off a Bye under Pete Carroll. We'll have to see.

As far as the offense goes (to put it in baseball terms) though they might strike out a ton ... they are also quite capable of hitting the home run ball, as (like the Seahawks) the Dolphins also have 24 Plays that have gone for 20 Yards or more this season. Here is one of them ...