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The scientific literature contains evidence suggesting that women who have been treated for breast cancer may, as a result of their diagnosis, increase their phyto-oestrogen (PE) intake. In the present paper, we describe the creation of a dietary analysis database (based on Dietplan6) for the determination of dietary intakes of specific PE (daidzein, genistein, glycitein, formononetin, biochanin A, coumestrol, matairesinol and secoisolariciresinol), in a group of women previously diagnosed and treated for postmenopausal breast cancer. The design of the database, data evaluation criteria, literature data entry for 551 foods and primary analysis by LC–MS/MS of an additional thirty-four foods for which there were no published data are described. The dietary intake of 316 women previously treated for postmenopausal breast cancer informed the identification of potential food and beverage sources of PE and the bespoke dietary analysis database was created to, ultimately, quantify their PE intake. In order that PE exposure could be comprehensively described, fifty-four of the 316 subjects completed a 24 h urine collection, and their urinary excretion results allowed for the description of exposure to include those identified as ‘equol producers’.

The coastline along the southern Arabian Gulf between Al Jubail, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and Dubai, UAE, appears to have risen at least 125 m in the last 18,000 years. Dating and topographic surveying of paleo-dunes (43–53 ka), paleo-marine terraces (17–30 ka), and paleo-marine shorelines (3.3–5.5 ka) document a rapid, > 1 mm/a subsidence, followed by a 6 mm/a uplift that is decreasing with time. The mechanism causing this movement remains elusive but may be related to the translation of the coastal area through the backbasin to forebulge hinge line movement of the Arabian plate or, alternatively, by movement of the underlying Infracambrian-age Hormuz salt in response to sea-level changes associated with continental glaciation. Independent of the mechanism, rapid and episodic uplift may impact the design of engineering projects such as nuclear power plants, airports, and artificial islands as well as the interpretation of sedimentation and archeology of the area.

The northeastern sector of the Rub' al-Khali desert in the eastern United Arab Emirates (UAE) is dominated by large NE–SW trending dune ridges orientated perpendicular to the currently prevailing northwesterly wind regime. In this study, extensive use has been made of artificially exposed sections through these major dune ridges that reveal internal sedimentary structures and allow an intensive, high-resolution sampling programme to be carried out. Here, we present the optical dating results for samples from 7 sections. The results indicate that dune activity and preservation occurred within the periods 7–3 ka, 16–10 ka and 22–20 ka with evidence of earlier preservation during marine oxygen isotope stages MIS 3 and 5, with net accumulation rates in the range 2.2–25 m.ka− 1. In several instances, hiatuses in the preserved record of dune accumulation coincide with stratigraphic bounding surfaces visible in the exposed section profiles with associated truncation of internal sedimentary structures. Caution must be exercised when interpreting such gaps in the recorded accumulation chronologies of these dunes since these may simply constitute phases of low preservation potential rather than phases of low aeolian activity. Other factors such as sediment supply and availability in relation to sea-level dynamics may be significant and are also considered.

The synthesis of SrBi2Ta2O9 (SBT) thin films has been investigated using a superlattice approach. Thin films were deposited on silicon by independent injection of each source to produce Bi2O3/SrTa2O6 superlattices. The effects of post-deposition annealing have been investigated using high-resolution TEM and medium energy ion scattering (MEIS) to depth profile the superlattices. X-ray diffraction has also been used to characterize the conversion of the superlattices from distinct layers of Bi2O3 and SrTa2O6 into a polycrystalline layer of strontium bismuth tantalate.

One of the critical components in a thermophotovoltaic (TPV) system is the infrared-sensitive photovoltaic (PV) semiconductor device that converts the emitted radiation to electricity. Currently, several semiconductor material systems are under development by various workers in the field. The most common are InGaAs/InP, GaSb, and InGaSbAs/GaSb. These devices normally have electronic energy bandgap values in the range of 0.50-0.74 eV. In addition, the design and structure of these devices fall into two distinct formats: conventional planar and monolithic interconnected module (MIM). The conventional planar devices normally have one semiconductor junction and are high-current/low-voltage devices. In a MIM, small area PV cells are connected in series monolithically, on a semi-insulating substrate. This results in the formation of a single high-voltage/low-current module. Electrical and optical performance results for MIMs with electronic energy bandgaps of 0.60 and 0.74 eV will be presented.

The white-beaked dolphin, Lagenorhynchus albirostris, is commonly found throughout the North Sea and shelf waters of the North Atlantic. Little is known about the behaviour and ecology of this species, especially in British coastal waters. In this paper we present details of the seasonal and geographical distribution of white-beaked dolphins around the UK, along with new information on their diet and habitat use. Analysis of historical stranding records show a segregation of the sexes, with a significant difference between when males and females strand in UK waters. There has been a steady decline in reported strandings since the 1970s and seasonal differences in the distribution of strandings suggest that sea temperature may limit white-beaked dolphin distribution around the British coast. Stomach contents' analysis, from dolphins stranded mainly on the Scottish east coast, identified haddock and whiting as the predominant fish species being taken. Boat surveys were performed along the north-east Scottish coast to examine relationships between topography, environmental conditions, dolphin presence and group size. Dolphin presence was related to seabed slope and aspect while variation in temperature explained almost 45% of variation in observed group size, with smaller groups associated with higher sea temperatures.

Summary

As noted in Chapter 1, Title IV includes a voluntary compliance program intended to enable owners of the 263 Table A units subject to Phase I to make some of the required emission reductions at other units, which then become Phase I-affected units. As we have also noted, the response to this program has been much greater than expected. More than half the electric utilities with Table A units have voluntarily brought units into Phase I in each of its first three years: 182 units in 1995, 161 in 1996, and 153 in 1997. One hundred thirty-eight units – more than half of these units – were subject to Phase I in all three years.

Yet, as encouraging as this response has been, on closer examination it serves to illustrate a general problem with such voluntary provisions. In principle, allowances should be allocated to voluntary units equal to what the emissions of these units would be if they were not part of the program (i.e., counterfactual emissions). If this could be done exactly, participation would be attractive only to units with particularly low abatement costs. In practice, however, allowance allocations generally differ from counterfactual emissions. Units with relatively low control costs that would receive an allocation below their counterfactual emissions are thereby discouraged from participation, while units with relatively high control costs are encouraged to participate by an allocation above their counterfactual emissions.

Summary

COST SAVINGS IS THE GOAL

Emissions trading is advocated as a means for achieving environmental goals because the flexibility it provides to affected sources promises lower costs than do the usual source-specific mandates, standards, and other forms of prescription broadly characterized as “command-and-control” (CAC). With the choices made possible by a market-based emissions control policy, the costs of achieving any given level of environmental protection can be reduced below those incurred by CAC regulation. Alternatively, more environmental protection can be obtained for the same cost.

The magnitude of the cost savings potentially available through use of emissions trading has been the subject of study for a number of years, but the results have varied widely. Estimated ratios of the cost of an observed CAC program to that of a least-cost market-based alternative have ranged from just over 1 to over 20. The implication is that emissions trading could lead to negligible or enormous savings, depending on the costs of the CAC program to which the efficient, market-based alternative is compared. These earlier studies were performed with the considerable handicap of being able only to compare the unappealing, observed reality of CAC programs with simulated and often idealized market-based alternatives. This defect was unavoidable because so few market-based alternatives have been available to observe, and, with one or two exceptions, these few have not been notably successful. Now Title IV provides the opportunity to compare a real, market-based alternative, with all of its inevitable imperfections, with some hypothetical CAC alternative.

Summary

The argument for the cost-minimizing properties of emissions trading rests, of course, on the assumption that an external market for permits exists and that it is reasonably efficient. By “efficient” we mean that the prices for permits are transparent to buyers and sellers, transaction costs are low, arbitrage opportunities are quickly exploited, and buyers and sellers take full advantage of the opportunities to reduce compliance costs by engaging in trading activity. The limited experience with emissions trading prior to 1990 was not particularly encouraging in this regard (Hahn, 1989; Hahn and Hester, 1989), and there was considerable doubt whether the tradable permit feature of Title IV would meet with any greater success than did earlier programs involving emissions trading.

Unlike previous tradable permit programs, Title IV embraces emissions trading among utilities with remarkably few restrictions. First, allowances can be traded nationally. Second, no review or prior approval of trades is necessary. Third, the purchase and holding of allowances is not restricted to utilities for which these permits would become a necessary input for the coal- or oil-fired generation of electricity. All sources receiving allowance allocations as well as third parties, such as brokerage firms and individuals, are free to buy allowances from or sell them to any other party. Fourth, neither the frequency nor the mechanisms for trading allowances is limited. Finally, allowances that are good for use in one year may be saved and used in future years.

Summary

CONFUSION ABOUT CONTROL COSTS

The initially low price of allowances in Phase I led to some misunderstanding and controversy about the cost of compliance with Title IV. Specifically, the initially low and declining allowance prices were interpreted as an indication that the costs of complying with Title IV were dramatically less than had been anticipated. For instance, prominent representatives of President Clinton's Administration asserted that:

during the 1990 debates on the Clean Air Act's Acid Rain Program, industry initially projected the costs of an emission allowance…to be approximately $1, 500.… Today those allowances are selling for less than $100.

and

We've reduced the emissions that cause acid rain for less than a tenth of the price that was predicted.…

These statements err both in the interpretation of allowance prices and in the recollection of what earlier studies had estimated Title IV's costs to be. Our interpretation of the low allowance prices early in Phase I and of the subsequent doubling of allowance prices in 1998 is provided in Chapter 11. In this chapter we develop an estimate of the cost of complying with Title IV in Phase I and compare it with the predictions of the same cost made in earlier studies of Title IV. The objective in this chapter is not to estimate the cost savings attributable to emissions trading when compared to some hypothetical alternative emissions control mechanism. That more difficult analytic task will be addressed in Chapter 10.

Summary

EXPECTED VERSUS ACTUAL SO2 EMISSIONS

When acid rain legislation was being debated, SO2 emissions were expected to rise throughout the 1990s as a result of the increase in the demand for electricity and continuing reliance on coal-fired generation. For example, in a 1990 analysis of the proposed acid rain legislation, a widely recognized consultant to government and industry predicted that, without acid rain controls, electric utility SO2 emissions would rise by as much as 25% over the 1985 level by the year 2005 (ICF, 1990). Other forecasts, with lower load growth or more gas generation, projected smaller increases in emissions, but none forecast a decrease. In fact, however, 1990 SO2 emissions from electric utilities were 3% below the 1985 level, and 1993 emissions were 7% below 1985 despite continuing growth in coal-fired generation. Even before the emission constraints embodied in Title IV could have affected the trend in SO2 emissions, the historical data indicate that emissions were falling rather than rising.

In this chapter, we discuss why SO2 emissions fell rather than rose after 1985 and develop methods to distinguish the impact of Title IV on SO2 emissions from the impact of other exogenous factors operating during this period. From the standpoint of the environment, any reduction in SO2 emissions, whatever the reason, may be viewed as welcome. However, an accurate estimate of the emission reductions due to Title IV is required for any evaluation of the costs of the Acid Rain Program.

Summary

EARLY HISTORY OF FEDERAL REGULATION OF SO2 EMISSIONS

The 1970 Clean Air Act Amendments

The 1990 Acid Rain Program and the factors that influenced its structure cannot be understood in isolation from the earlier history of the federal government's efforts to limit SO2 emissions produced in conjunction with the generation of electricity. The 1970 Clean Air Act Amendments, the first significant U.S. federal air pollution legislation, led to the establishment of national maximum standards for ambient concentrations of SO2, as for those of carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, particulates, ozone, and lead. The states were largely responsible for meeting these standards in each local area. Each state was required to develop and have approved by EPA a state implementation plan (SIP) specifying actions to be taken to bring the state into compliance with the standards before the deadlines specified in the statute. The motivation for controlling SO2 emissions at this time was not concern about damage caused by acid rain. Rather, it rested on concerns about the effects of ambient SO2 concentrations on human health (for which “primary standards” were specified in the statute) and on other aspects of human welfare such as visibility (for which “secondary standards” were specified in the statute).

The 1970 Amendments also imposed New Source Performance Standards (NSPS) applicable only to SO2 emissions from new power plants. According to the NSPS, the emissions rate (ER) for new coal plants could not exceed 1.21b of sulfur dioxide per million Btu of fuel burned (0.81b/mmBtu for oil).