Here's the only way it makes sense for Justin Fields to transfer

Yes, I understand the way he was misused in the SEC Championship and at certain points this season. Yes, I understand the stunning number of 5-star quarterback recruits who end up transferring (75 percent of the 5-star quarterbacks from 2013-16 transferred, including the most recent Heisman Trophy winner, Kyler Murray). Yes, I understand the fact that Jake Fromm took his game to another level and has likely already earned the right to start in 2019, health permitting.

But no, I’m not predicting Fields and Georgia to part ways.

If Fields and his family break this down, there’s really only one scenario in which leaving would make sense. And even then, it might still be a reach.

The only way in which Fields transfers from Georgia is if he believes that Fromm is staying all 4 years.

On the surface, that might some pretty obvious. Of course that would be something that would make Fields, who is only a year younger than Fromm, use as the basis of his decision.

It’s actually more complicated than that, though.

Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Fields is going to have to roll the dice on something that even the experts seem to be somewhat split on. Ask someone like Bleacher Report NFL Draft scout Matt Miller and he’ll tell you Fromm will be a first-round pick in 2020. Ask someone like SEC Network analyst Jordan Rodgers and he’ll tell you that Fromm will be an undrafted free agent after having an Aaron Murray-like career at Georgia.

That’s not a knock on Murray, who was a record-setting quarterback. But the more Fromm gets that comp, I think the more likely we are to see Fields leave Athens.

Let’s back up for a second because I know what you’re probably thinking.

“Why couldn’t Fields just decide to leave after the bowl season and transfer somewhere with a clearer path that’s not dependent on one of the nation’s best quarterback’s eventual NFL decision?”

Well, it’s simple really. If Fields decides at season’s end that he wants to transfer, he’s going to sit the 2019 season per NCAA rules. An in-state kid isn’t getting a hardship waiver, either. If he does, the NCAA might as well forgo that process altogether and just hand them out like candy on Halloween.

In other words, Fields’ path elsewhere would consist of him starting in 2020 at the earliest … which would be the same timeline at Georgia if Fromm leaves for the NFL Draft after his junior year.

So again, why would it make sense for Fields to leave?

If Fields does transfer, it’ll be fair to wonder why he picked Georgia in the first place. The former Penn State commit would have had a clear path to replace Trace McSorley and be the starter in 2019. Shoot, he could have gone pretty much anywhere outside of Alabama or Georgia and not had to worry about dealing with an established starter just one year his senior.

But that discussion is all in the past. The one that matters now is how the nation’s No. 2 recruit in 2018 feels about his development and his opportunity moving forward.

To Georgia’s credit, Fields was part of the offensive game plan on a weekly basis, albeit not always in the fashion that I would have preferred to see him used. The Dawgs have one of the country’s top 10 quarterbacks, and they still made it a point to get a true freshman involved. Was it to keep Fields happy? Probably. Was it because Fields is extremely talented and they wanted to see what they had in him? Most likely.

This dynamic isn’t going anywhere, and for all the parallels it had to the Tua Tagovailoa-Jalen Hurts 2017 situation entering the season, Fromm’s improved play took this down a different path. Who knows if Fields is thinking about his different path just a year into his time in Athens. If he is, it probably stems from the fear that Fromm will indeed be the next Murray and become a 4-year starter.

But I still come back to the belief that Fromm not leaving after his junior season would be the result of regression. If that happens, Fields has his window. That would obviously be dependent on him staying at Georgia for his sophomore season. I suppose in this era of transferring, nothing is a guarantee.

The ideal way this works out for Georgia is essentially a repeat of 2018. That is, Fromm makes more strides and looks NFL-ready after his junior year while Fields stays involved and gets more responsibility as a passer. That combination fuels a return to the title game and Fromm leaves NFL scouts drooling with perfect back-shoulder throw after perfect back-shoulder throw.

Will that happen? It’s not a bad bet.

If you ask me, a worse bet would be Fields leaving after his freshman season.

Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.

I’ll take NFL scout Matt Miller’s evaluation over a TV personality pretty boy like Jordan Rodgers all day. Fromm is on his way to the NFL after next season. Ironically, after a 2-year wait, Justin might only need the 2020 season to accomplish all his goals and HE could be gone early.

Not being certain of what Fromm will do is the biggest reason for a move now. It takes that out of the equation. He’s going to sit for the most part at UGA next year. He can transfer, sit out a red shirt year, unless getting a waiver, and it won’t matter if Fromm goes to the NFL or not. The tricky part is finding a place where he fits in that doesn’t have an entrenched starter.

So would say the best fit for Justin fields would be Dan Mullen just based on how’s dan Mullen runs.his offense and the skill Justin fields has. justin just has to look at what dan has done this year with franks and it’s a no brainer

Fromm will likely be a 4 year starter and a 3rd – 5th round draft pick. He is a great field general with enough arm talent to make most passes and he has started to understand when and how to throw into the middle of the field. Half way through last season he even started showing that he understands when a TE is standing wide open it might be a good idea to toss a few ball there way.
Fields will have a decision to make after next season till then his smart play is to stick around compete hard and learn about being a QB from the Georgia coaches.
There are just so many things that can happen I have no prediction on what Fields will decide in the future. He could request a redshirt season and graduate on time and transfer with no restriction and 2 years to play or the redshirt could make him a 2 year GA starter. Fromm could get hurt and Fields step in and never allow Fromm the job back……. Just take it 1 year at a time see how it falls out right now I see not enough plusses that he should even think of transferring till next year after the bowls or playoffs are over

That’s a really good take on Fromm, LateModelRay. As for Fields, I think we’re all getting to wrapped up in his recruiting ranking and how things went down with Eason when we experience concern over Fields transferring. For as physically gifted as Justin Fields is, he still needs a lot of development in understanding how to run a pro style O. Just recoginizing defences and route development quickly, and knowing how/when to use those wheels of his against a defense full of guys as fast and strong as him. I doubt there is any better place than UGA with Fromm as tutor in the QB room for Justin to get that development. Justins best move is to stay and learn. Now, if circumstances conspire to keep him off the field on Saturday after next year AND he’s mastered field leadership, all bets are off.

Does this situation make future QBs more cautious about UGA? You have a very entrenched starter and a very talented QB salivating for his chance to take over. Being a top QB, you either be very confident that you can beat out the other two, or start to look elsewhere. Crazy how getting such riches can cause issues as well.

Anyone who think Fromm is a 3rd-5th round pick doesn’t know football.he’s gone after next year.he showed he’s a better player than a game manager all yr.he also showed he’s more ready than Tua is right now.Fields aint going nowhere but yall keep hoping tho.

I’m not trying to start crap or be mean but Fromm has not proven himself more than Tua. Fromm looked mediocre in the second half of both the NC and SECCG. Tua lead Alabama from behind 13 in the NC game in his first start and won the biggest game of his career in his first start. Skip to this year and Jalen Hurts outplayed Jake in the fourth quarter. Tua was a Heisman finalist and many believe he should’ve won it. I did not see Jake’s name up there. Tua will be a higher draft pick obviously than Jake. Jake has looked wonderful at times and then at times, well, LSU…… Lots of folks say Tua could go to any school and win them a bunch of games. I don’t think the same could be said about Fromm. I think he’s a 4 year starter or gets beat by Fields eventually. The kid is a good college football QB. Not great.

My guess is that Fields was promised significant playing time when he was being recruited. This is based on comments his dad made during the season. He could transfer down a division and play. If he is as good as all you Georgia fans say he is, this would not hurt his NFL chances. Rodgers is hard to listen to but he does know what he’s talking about. If Fields does not come out of Spring ball with a lot of playing time, he Will transfer.

Fields brought up redshirting during his recruitment and talked about how that wasn’t off the table (he obviously didn’t his fresh year).

So don’t start this “he was promised playing time” bit. Fromm had come off his Freshman year as a top 10 QB and Fields knew that coming in. No one promised him tons of playing time. I guarantee you that.

Because there were several articles and interviews where his family said they were all fine with him redshirting and had talked about it, so it is a guarantee. He knew coming in he would be riding the bench unless he outplayed Fromm. So far he hasn’t done enough to show he is ready. If he wants to play he will have to outdo Fromm. It’s pretty simple, if he wants to transfer, let him. We will find another QB to take his place.

Rodgers knows nothing, especially about being a 5 star QB. He was “promised significant playing time”? No, he was promised full opportunity to earn playing time. Rodgers was a QB bust in college and wants to degrade everybody else. If Baker Mayfield, Tua, Kyler are all top 10 NFL QB’s, then so is Fromm. He outplayed Mayfield and Tua head-to-head.

I don’t see fields transferring now but it would not surprise me. If Fromm has a big year he may be gone. But he may not. If fields is the talent he is touted to be he must be really regretting signing with UGA. Players wanna play. Not a knock on UGA just the way it is. He is kind of stuck. Stay and hope Fromm goes pro or leave now and assure he is starting somewhere in 2020. He is sitting all or a lot of 2019 either way.

Kirby promises the best player will play. If Fields isn’t on the Field he isn’t the best player.

If Fromm has a bad year than Fields should have the drive to overtake him. If not than he wasn’t as talented as we all thought. Most likely case is Fromm has a great year and has to make a decision. Stay or leave. Depends on the draft next year. If Fromm Stays Fields can either leave and play elsewhere for 2 years….or Redshirt (weird but to his advantage if he wants to play at UGA) or just play 1 year.