>> Friday, February 24, 2012

Here is today's edition of the video. In it, I take a detailed look at today's severe weather threat as well as a weekend cool-down.

We remain in a warm and fairly muggy airmass this morning. As a potent storm system swings into the region today, we will likely see broken lines of showers and storms move through. The potential for damaging winds is fairly high today, and a couple of tornadoes can't be ruled out. Stay with News 14 Carolina on television for all of the latest information.

Up in the mountains, some upslope snow showers will kick in by tonight and continue into parts of tomorrow. Not a huge event, but the favored areas will get some snow on the ground.

It will be much cooler around here this weekend. Highs and lows will return to slightly below average levels.

It looks like our next significant system will then roll through around Wednesday next week.

>> Wednesday, February 22, 2012

Here is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video:

Highs today will warm well into the 60s across the region as our warming trend continues.

A little disturbance is rippling our way and will scoot through this evening. Some afternoon showers or storms look possible in the mountains spilling down into the foothills, then this evening, the chance of showers and storms moves through the piedmont.

The SPC has outlined the western Carolinas in a 'slight' risk of severe weather with this disturbance. While I don't think it's a huge severe weather threat, we will monitor it.

Highs tomorrow will surge to near-record levels across the region....well into the 70s for most east of the mountains.

Our next system then swings in late Thursday night into Friday. The GFS is quicker with the progression of this system than is the European, but for the time-being, I will still highlight Friday as the best time frame for shower and storm chances.

>> Tuesday, February 21, 2012

Here is today's edition of the video...lots of details about our weather over the next week, including a big warming trend and severe weather potential for portions of the Southeast late-week.

Highs will warm into the 50s today across the region. We will then head into the 60s tomorrow before a lot of us top 70 Thursday afternoon.

One storm system is moving through today. There isn't much moisture for it to work with, but a few showers are possible mainly east of I-95.

Another disturbance moves through late tomorrow afternoon and evening, and I can't rule out a few showers making it out of the mountains and down into the foothills and western/ southern piedmont. But they will be brief.

Late-week system...

A pretty dynamic storm system will sweep into the eastern US Thursday into Friday. It sure looks like this one needs to be watched closely for severe weather concerns across portions of the Southeast. See the video for more on this.

>> Sunday, February 19, 2012

I share the concerns of some about how the radar looks right now. However, this is somewhat encouraging. Take a look at the latest 4km RPM, valid at 1pm:

Now take a look at what it has at 8pm:

So, while the radar (and some modeling) seems to be shifting the heaviest precip north of NC into VA, I think the prudent thing right now is to stay the course with the forecast.

As the lift from the incoming upper level impulse moves in, we should see the precip blossom in NC. If it doesn't, well then the accumulation forecast is definitely in trouble. But let's see what radar trends we see over the next several hours. After that point, we can refine the forecast if need be.

After looking over the data this morning, there are a couple of factors that remain a challenge with the forecast today and this evening.

First of all, warm ground temps. While I think sometimes this gets overplayed in terms of limiting accumulations of snow, you have to account for at least a bit of melting or time consumed to begin accumulations with initial warm ground conditions. While I don't think it's a huge factor, it is somewhat of a factor.

Secondly, the amount and intensity of precipitation. There will likely be some banding that sets up in the precip later this afternoon and evening, and in the spots that find themselves under a localized heavy band, some significantly higher amounts of snow could occur.

As of 9am, the radar upstream looks good, and the incoming upper level disturbance is doing its job.

After looking over some sounding data, for the Triad and Triangle, it looks like a change from rain to snow could occur around late afternoon with any lingering rain possibly kicking over to snow around the southern Piedmont this evening.

You can see my accumulation map. Anybody across the southern Piedmont could be fair game to get a little snow on the ground, but it is just as likely that you will not have any accumulation in this area.

Further norther, I have included much of the Triad and Triangle areas in the 1-3" area, but the closer you get to the Virginia border, the more the totals could really ramp up. For the northern part of the Triad viewing area, I am going with a 3-6" accumulation.

Be aware that there could certainly be some higher amounts, especially in the 1-3" area, if we get some nice banding features to set up.

Up in the mountains, this is a good snow event. I am outlining a large 6-10" area, but I fully expect there to be some 12"+ amounts in a few mountain spots.

Travel in the snow accumulation areas could definitely be a challenge in the morning.