ESPN's Bill Simmons sleeper of 2006 is....

To my 2006 sleeper! Come on, after I nailed the Bears last year, you've been waiting for this one. Admit it. So here we go.

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Steven Jackson, NFL MVP in '06?
We go through this every year, but it's worth mentioning again: True sleepers can only be teams that everyone is writing off -- like the Bears last season, who came out of nowhere to win their division (to the shock of nearly everyone). Ten teams fit the bill this season: Green Bay, New Orleans, San Fran, St. Louis, Buffalo, Cleveland, Houston, Oakland, Tennessee and the Jets. I'm telling you, one of those 10 will make the 2006 playoffs, followed by the alleged experts writing/saying, "Oh my God, how did that happen?" and "Absolutely no one saw this one coming!" Happens every year.

We go through this every year, but it's worth mentioning again: True sleepers can only be teams that everyone is writing off -- like the Bears last season, who came out of nowhere to win their division (to the shock of nearly everyone). Ten teams fit the bill this season: Green Bay, New Orleans, San Fran, St. Louis, Buffalo, Cleveland, Houston, Oakland, Tennessee and the Jets. I'm telling you, one of those 10 will make the 2006 playoffs, followed by the alleged experts writing/saying, "Oh my God, how did that happen?" and "Absolutely no one saw this one coming!" Happens every year.

My 2006 sleeper is … (drumroll please) … the Rams of St. Louis.

The explanation: Last year's team underachieved because of the ongoing Martz soap opera, Marshall Faulk's awkward situation and various injuries. The Rams have a fairly easy schedule that includes San Fran, Arizona, Detroit and Green Bay in the first five weeks, followed by a clash against rival Seattle at home in Week 6 (and Alexander's ACL should have exploded by then). They beefed up a lousy defense with three marquee free agents (Corey Chavous, La'Roi Glover and Will Witherspoon, who was great for the Panthers), drafted corner Tye Hill in the first round and hired Jim Haslett as their defensive coordinator. (Note: I like when teams hire former head coaches as coordinators, they're almost overqualified for the job).

The Rams have genuine firepower on offense (Steven Jackson, Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce, Marc Bulger, even Kevin Curtis), as well as a new head coach, Scott Linehan, who worked under Nick Saban and seems exceedingly competent by all accounts. Throw in Seattle's inevitable collapse and the Rams absolutely REEK of sleeperdom. That's why I'm picking them.