Worries about the consumer outlook are elevated. First, despite a surprise pop in November, hiring is not accelerating at the end of 2012. Second, consumers are more pessimistic about the future as households realize they likely face higher tax bills next year. Modest job growth and less take-home pay won’t support substantial increases in consumer spending.

At first glance, the November job gain of 146,000 was a positive surprise. Economists had expected only an 80,000 increase because of Sandy, but the Labor Department said the superstorm had little impact.

But labor demand isn’t as strong as the November number suggests. That’s because Labor also revised down hiring in September and October. Job growth over the past three months averaged 139,000 per month.

That’s below the 157,000 average of the past year, and is only fast enough to hold the unemployment rate steady or to reduce it very gradually. (The unemployment rate dropped to 7.7% last month only because more Americans dropped out of the labor force, not because more job seekers found work.)

And then there is the fiscal cliff threatening the outlook. The consumer survey compiled by Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan showed an unexpectedly large drop in economic sentiment and expectations in early December.

Economists at Goldman Sachs wrote in a research note, “Worries about the fiscal cliff figured prominently in the survey responses, with 25% making negative references to the likelihood of higher taxes.” (Indeed, the drop in sentiment was larger in high-income households than that for lower-earning consumers.)

Fiscal worries also showed up in the consumer survey released Thursday by the Royal Bank of Canada. The survey found a large 38% of consumers say the fiscal cliff has worsened their view of the recovery. And 13% say the potential negatives of the fiscal cliff has caused them to reduce purchases or investments.

That’s bad for retailers hoping for a successful holiday shopping season. Workers who realize their paychecks will shrink in January–the same time they plan to pay off the credit bills run up in December–may be looking over their gift lists and rethinking how generous they want to be this year.

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