With numbers now established, redistricting debate begins

If drawing political districts could be done in a vacuum — without having to worry about how the numbers work out in the rest of the state — creating new congressional districts along California's central coast could be a pretty tidy task.

Redistricting data for the state, released this week by the U.S. Census Bureau, show the combined population of San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara counties (693,532) almost exactly equals the population of what a new congressional district must be (702,900).

Moving on down the coast, if one were to carve out Simi Valley and group it with areas in Los Angeles County, the population of the remainder of Ventura County (699,181) would neatly fit into a second district.

It probably won't be that easy, of course.

The release of the new data has kicked off a frenzy of speculation of what California's political districts will look like in 2012 and triggered the start of a five-month sprint toward Aug. 15 — the deadline for the state's new Citizens Redistricting Commission to produce a final set of maps for new congressional and legislative districts.

Statewide, the numbers show two distinct trends, each with different partisan implications. The fastest-growing regions of the state over the last decade were inland counties such as Riverside (41.7 percent), Placer (40.3 percent) and Kern (26.9 percent). Because those areas far outpaced the statewide growth rate of 10 percent, they will gain seats — and they are areas that have traditionally voted Republican.

But inside the numbers is another story. Even in those inland counties, the driving factor of population growth in California over the last decade has been among Latinos. All of California gained about 3.5 million people between 2000 and 2010; the Latino population grew by 4 million. In recent years, Latino voters have strongly favored Democrats.

"Republicans see those figures and say, 'We're strong in the inland,'" said Herb Gooch, a political science professor at California Lutheran University. "Sure, the tide is moving that way, but what's in the wave?"

The growth of the Latino population has been so strong and so widespread across the state the new districts may show that an era of ethnic politics has ended, said writer Kenneth Burt, author of "California Latino Politics: The Search for a Civic Voice."

"As the Latino community has grown, where you place the lines has become less important," Burt said. "They are now in essence the future of California, as opposed to some small group that's different from the rest of California."

In Ventura County, too, the key question in determining the shape of new districts will be how the commission's mapmakers handle the largest concentrations of Latinos.

Oxnard, which in the 2001 redistricting plan was divided into two Assembly districts and placed in Senate and Congressional districts in which its role was marginalized, could now become the anchor of any new district. Its population of 197,899 is 73.5 percent Latino. The city's size would make it about 42 percent of an Assembly district, 28 percent of a congressional district and 21 percent of a Senate district.

"The base for any district would probably now be the Latino vote in Oxnard," said Gooch. "The question is, will it be Oxnard drawn north, or Oxnard drawn east?"

That question is the focus of discussions of a group called the Central Coast Redistricting Collaborative.

"The folks we're working with from Oxnard would like to see Oxnard kept whole and integrated into the politics of Ventura County," said Chris Lanier, civic engagement coordinate for the central coast community-organizing group CAUSE.

The group hopes to build consensus around a plan — "or at least around shared advocacy points" — that it can present to the commission when advocating plans for new districts in Santa Barbara and Ventura counties, he said.

Before discussing actual maps, Lanier said, the group is encouraging people in the county to think about what the term "communities of interest" — a concept the commission must consider — means along the central coast.

"It's important for people to reflect on their own particular view of what those words mean, and what their interests are," he said.

The 14-member commission, whose members include former Santa Paula City Councilman Gabino Aguirre, is scheduled to meet in Sacramento today. It will soon be scheduling a series of hearings around the state to receive public input.