Drifting off course?

On Sunday (18 April), voters in the Turkish north of Cyprus will decide whether to pursue the reunification course under the leadership of Mehmet Ali Talat.

He has been president of the ‘Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus’ (TRNC) for five years, and has devoted much of his energy during that time to abolishing the TRNC – recognised by no one but Turkey – and integrating it into a re-unified Cyprus. But polls suggest that Talat will lose to Dervis¸ Eroglu, the ‘prime minister’ of the unrecognised statelet. Diplomats fear that this would set back reunification efforts by many years.

“One certainly would not expect any acceleration of the talks” in the event of Eroglu winning, an official who follows the situation in Cyprus suggested, with deliberate understatement.

Turkish EU talks

The talks have been painfully slow since they began in September 2008, despite a favourable regional and local environment. The Turkish government of Recep Tayyip Erdogan is keen on removing the main obstacle on Turkey’s path to the European Union, and the reunification of Cyprus would finally allow the EU to work more closely with NATO on security issues. Greece under Prime Minister George Papandreou has also been constructive. Talat has been able to move out from the long shadow cast by Rauf Denktas, the Turkish Cypriot leader who was for decades an implacable foe of reunification. Talat also found a kindred spirit in Demetris Christofias, president of the Republic of Cyprus and leader of the Greek Cypriots since February 2008. The two share a leftist background and a childhood in and around Kyrenia, a port town in the north.

Talat’s strategy had been to reach a deal on creating a bi-communal, bi-zonal federal state before going into the campaign. But negotiations on the restitution of property and on the return of refugees expelled by both sides during the Turkish invasion of 1974 have been difficult, and the Turkish community also wants some security guarantees for the period after the Turkish troops leave.

Turkish Cypriots are exasperated by Talat’s repeated claims over the past five years that a solution is just around the corner. Last spring, Eroglu, the leader of the centre-right National Unity Party founded by Denktas, became prime minister again, displacing Talat’s Republican Turkish Party after four years in power.

This weekend, Eroglu might complete his comeback by winning the presidency, if voters are not deterred by the prospect of several more years of deadlock.

Eroglu would continue talks, but in less conciliatory mode. “For us, bi-zonal bi-communal federation means the existence of two separate sovereign peoples in separate areas,” he told a Greek Cypriot newspaper last week.

However, Turkey’s influence may prove irresistible. And diplomats suggest that the EU could, against the wishes of the Republic of Cyprus, adopt rules allowing trade between north Cyprus and the EU.

This, in turn, would allow Turkey to open its sea- and airports to Cypriot traffic. Taken together, this could be the breakthrough thathas eluded Talat forfive years.