WPS3955
Finance and Economic Development:
Policy Choices for Developing Countries
Asli Demirgüç-Kunt *
Abstract: The empirical literature on finance and development suggests that countries
with better developed financial systems experience faster economic growth. Financial
development - as captured by size, depth, efficiency and reach of financial systems-
varies sharply around the world, with large differences among countries at similar levels
of income. This paper argues that governments play an important role in building
effective financial systems and discusses different policy options to make finance work
for development.
World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3955, June 2006
The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the
exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly,
even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should
be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely
those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the view of the World Bank, its Executive Directors,
or the countries they represent. Policy Research Working Papers are available online at
http://econ.worldbank.org.
* Senior Research Manager in Finance, Development Research Department, World Bank. The paper was
written for publication in Bourguignon and Monga (2006) "Macroeconomic Issues in Low-Income
Countries." The author is grateful to Meghana Ayyagari, Thorsten Beck, Bob Cull, Patrick Honohan,
Vojislav Maksimovic and Sole Martinez for helpful comments and Edward Al-Hussainy for excellent
research assistance.
What is the role of the financial sector in economic development? Economists
hold very different views. On the one hand, prominent researchers believe that the
operation of the financial sector merely responds to economic development, adjusting to
changing demands from the real sector, and is therefore overemphasized (Robinson,
1952; Lucas, 1988). On the other hand, equally prominent researchers believe that
financial systems play a crucial role in alleviating market frictions and hence influencing
savings rates, investment decisions, technological innovation and therefore long-run
growth rates. (Schumpeter, 1912; Gurley and Shaw, 1955; Goldsmith, 1969; McKinnon,
1973; Miller 1998).1
Financial markets and institutions arise to mitigate the effects of information and
transaction costs that prevent direct pooling and investment of society's savings.2 While
some theoretical models stress the importance of different institutional forms financial
systems can take, more important are the underlying functions that they perform (Levine,
1997 and 2000; Merton and Bodie, 2004). Financial systems help mobilize and pool
savings, provide payments services that facilitate the exchange of goods and services,
produce and process information about investors and investment projects to enable
efficient allocation of funds, monitor investments and exert corporate governance after
these funds are allocated, and help diversify, transform and manage risk.
While still far from being conclusive, the bulk of the empirical literature on
finance and development suggests that well-developed financial systems play an
1Two famous quotes by Robinson and Schumpeter illustrate these different views. Joan Robinson (1952)
argued "Where enterprise leads finance follows," whereas Joseph Schumpeter observed "The banker,
therefore, is not so much primarily a middleman...He authorizes people in the name of society ...(to
innovate)."
2See for example, Gurley and Shaw (1955), Diamond (1984), Boyd and Prescott (1986), Greenwood and
Jovanovic (1990), Galor and Zeira (1993), Aghion et al. (2004) among others.
1
independent and causal role in promoting long-run economic growth. More recent
evidence also points to the role of the sector in facilitating disproportionately rapid
growth in the incomes of the poor, suggesting that financial development helps the poor
catch up with the rest of the economy as it grows. These research findings have been
instrumental in persuading developing countries to sharpen their policy focus on the
financial sector. If finance is important for development, why do some countries have
growth-promoting financial systems while others do not? How do we define financial
development? And what can governments do to develop their financial systems?
This chapter addresses these questions. The next section provides a brief review
of the extensive empirical literature on finance and economic development and
summarizes the main findings. Section II illustrates the differences in financial systems
around the world and discusses the role of legal, cultural, political and geographical
factors in influencing financial development. Section III discusses the governments' role
in building effective financial systems. Section IV provides areas of particular emphasis
for lower-income countries. Section V concludes.
I. Finance and Economic Development: Evidence
By now there is an ever-expanding body of evidence that suggests countries with
better developed financial systems ­ mostly captured by depth and efficiency measures-
experience faster economic growth.3 Cross-country studies show that better developed
banks and markets are associated with faster growth and that this relationship is robust to
controlling for reverse causality or potential omitted variables (King and Levine, 1993;
Levine and Zervos, 1998). These findings are also confirmed by panel and time-series
3See Levine (1997 and 2005) for a comprehensive review of this literature.
2
estimation techniques (Levine, Loazya and Beck, 2000; Christopoulos and Tsionas, 2004;
Rousseau and Sylla, 1999). Research also indicates that financial sector development
helps economic growth through more efficient resource allocation and productivity
growth rather than through the scale of investment or savings mobilization (Beck, Levine
and Loayza, 2000). Furthermore, cross-country time-series studies also show that
financial liberalization boosts economic growth by improving allocation of resources and
the investment rate (Bekaert, Harvey and Lundblad, 2001 and 2005).
To further understand the relationship between financial development and
economic growth, researchers have also employed both firm-level and industry-level data
across a broad cross-section of countries. These studies better address causality issues
and seek to discover the mechanisms through which finance influences economic growth.
Demirguc-Kunt and Maksimovic (1998) use firm level data and a financial
planning model to show that more developed financial systems ­ as proxied by larger
banking systems and more liquid stock markets- allow firms to grow faster than rates
they can finance internally. Consistent with Demirguc-Kunt and Maksimovic (1998),
Love (2003) also uses firm level data and shows that the sensitivity of investment to
internal funds is greater in countries in less developed financial systems. Beck,
Demirguc-Kunt and Maksimovic (2005) use firm level survey data for a broad set of
countries and show that financial development eases the obstacles that firms face to
growing faster, and that this effect is stronger particularly for smaller firms. Recent
evidence also suggests that access to finance is associated with faster rates of innovation
and firm dynamism consistent with the cross-country finding that finance promotes
3
growth through productivity increases (Ayyagari, Demirguc-Kunt and Maksimovic,
2006).
Rajan and Zingales (1998) use industry level data across countries and show that
industries that are naturally heavy users of external finance ­ as measured by the finance-
intensity of U.S. industries4 ­ benefit disproportionately more from greater financial
development compared to other industries. Beck, Demirguc-Kunt, Laeven and Levine
(2006) again using industry data, highlight a distributional effect: They find that
industries that are naturally composed of small firms grow faster in financially developed
economies, a result that provides additional evidence that financial development
disproportionately promotes the growth of smaller firms. Also using industry-level data,
Wurgler (2000) shows that countries with higher levels of financial development increase
investment more in growing industries and decrease investment more in declining
industries, compared to countries with underdeveloped financial systems.
There are also numerous individual country case studies that provide consistent
evidence. For example, Jayaratne and Strahan (1996) compare states within the U.S. and
show that bank branch reform boosted bank-lending quality and accelerated real per
capita growth rates. Similarly, Guiso, Sapienza and Zingales (2002) examine the
individual regions of Italy. They find that local financial development enhances the
probability that an individual starts a business, increases industrial competition, and
promotes growth of firms. And these results are stronger for smaller firms which cannot
easily raise funds outside of the local area. Bertrand, Schoar and Thesmar (2004) provide
firm-level evidence from France that shows the impact of 1985 deregulation eliminating
4Chosen on the basis that the US financial system is relatively free of frictions, so each US industry's use
of external finance is a good proxy for its demand.
4
government intervention in bank lending decisions fostered greater competition in the
credit market, inducing an increase in allocative efficiency across firms.
Besides debates concerning the role of finance in economic development,
economists have debated the relative importance of bank-based and market-based
financial systems for a long time (Golsdmith, 1969; Boot and Thakor, 1997; Allen and
Gale, 2000; Demirguc-Kunt and Levine, 2001c). However, research findings in this area
have established that the debate matters much less than was previously thought, and that
it is the financial services themselves that matter more than the form of their delivery
(Levine, 2002; Demirguc-Kunt and Maksimovic, 2002; Beck and Levine, 2002).
Financial structure does change during development, with financial systems becoming
more market-based as the countries develop (Demirguc-Kunt and Levine, 1996 and
2001b). But controlling for overall financial development, differences in financial
structure per se do not help explain growth rates. Nevertheless, these studies do not
necessarily imply that institutional structure is unimportant for growth, rather that there is
not one optimal institutional structure suitable for all countries at all times. Growth-
promoting mixture of markets and intermediaries is likely to be determined by the legal,
regulatory, political, policy and other factors that have not been adequately incorporated
into the analysis or the indicators used in the literature may not sufficiently capture the
comparative roles of banks and markets (Demirguc-Kunt and Levine, 2001a).
Financial development has been shown to also play an important role in
dampening the impact of external shocks on the domestic economy (Beck, Lundberg and
Majnoni, 2006; Aghion, Banerjee and Manova, 2005; Raddatz, 2006), although financial
crises do occur in developed and developing countries alike (Demirguc-Kunt and
5
Detragiache, 1998 and 1999; Kaminsky and Reinhart, 1999).5 Indeed, deeper financial
systems without the necessary institutional development has been shown to lead to a poor
handling or even magnification of risk rather than its mitigation, consistent with the
findings of Demirguc-Kunt and Detragiache (1998), Beck, Lundberg and Majnoni
(2006) and numerous country case studies discussed in Demirguc-Kunt and Detragiache
(2005).
Another area of investigation where there has been recent empirical research is
the impact of financial development on income distribution and poverty. Theory provides
conflicting predictions in this area. Some theories argue that financial development
should have a disproportionately beneficial impact on the poor since informational
asymmetries produce credit constraints that are particularly binding on the poor. Poor
people find it particularly difficult to fund their own investments internally or externally
since they lack resources, collateral and political connections to access finance (see for
example, Banerjee and Newman, 1993; Galor and Zeira, 1993; Aghion and Bolton,
1997). More generally, some political economy theories also suggest that better
functioning financial systems make financial services available to a wider segment of the
population, rather than restricting them to politically connected incumbents (Rajan and
Zingales, 2003; Morck, Wolfenzon and Young, 2005). Yet others argue that financial
access, especially to credit, only benefits the rich and the connected, particularly at early
stages of economic development and therefore, while financial development may
promote growth, its impact on income distribution is not clear (Lamoreaux, 1994; Haber,
2004 and 2005). Finally, if access to credit improves with aggregate economic growth
and more people can afford to join the formal financial system, the relationship between
5Also see Demirguc-Kunt and Detragiache (2005) for a review of the bank crisis literature.
6
financial development and income distribution may be non-linear, with adverse effects at
early stages, but a positive impact after a certain point (Greenwood and Jovanovic,1990).
In cross-country regressions, Beck, Demirguc-Kunt and Levine (2004) investigate
how financial development influences the growth rate of Gini coefficient of income
inequality, the growth rate of the income of the poorest quintile of society, and the
fraction of the population living in poverty. The results indicate that finance exerts a
disproportionately large, positive impact on the poor and hence reduces income
inequality. Investigating levels rather than growth rates, Honohan (2004) shows that even
at the same average income, economies with deeper financial systems have fewer poor
people.6 Much more empirical research using micro datasets and different methodologies
will be necessary to confirm these initial findings, and to better understand the
mechanisms through which finance affects income distribution and poverty.
Taken as a whole, the empirical evidence reviewed above suggests that countries
with better developed financial systems grow faster and that this growth
disproportionately benefits the poorer segments of the society. Yet, financial system
development differs widely across countries. What makes some countries develop
growth-promoting financial systems, while others cannot? If finance is crucial for
economic development, what can governments do to ensure well-functioning financial
systems? I turn to these questions next.
6Also looking at levels, Clarke et al. (2003) provide further evidence that financial development is
associated with lower levels of inequality.
7
II. Financial Development: Indicators and Historical Determinants
Financial development is a multifaceted concept and thus difficult to measure.
Ideally, we would like indicators of how well each financial system fulfills its functions,
i.e., identifies profitable projects, exerts corporate control, facilitates risk management,
mobilizes savings, and eases transactions. Unfortunately, since no such measures are
available across countries, I will rely on commonly used measures of financial
development to illustrate cross-country differences. Table 1 reports summary statistics
for indicators of financial depth, efficiency, access, size and openness by income level for
over 150 countries.
Private Credit, the value of credit by financial intermediaries to the private sector
divided by GDP, and Stock Market Capitalization, the value of listed shares divided by
GDP, are frequently used as measures of depth for the banking system and stock markets,
respectively. Private Credit captures the amount of credit channeled from savers, through
financial intermediaries, to private firms. Analysts use Stock Market Capitalization to
indicate the ability to mobilize capital and diversify risk. Both Private Credit and Market
Capitalization increase with income (Figures 1a and 2a), although at similar levels of
development there are still large differences (Figures 1b and 2b).7 For example, while
Thailand's Private Credit is over 100 percent, at similar levels of GDP per capita, Peru
only has a value of 23 percent. Similarly, Malaysia's Stock Market Capitalization is 140
percent, Costa Rica, another upper middle income country has a ratio of 10 percent.
7Also note that significant increases in financial depth not predicted by the underlying institutional
improvements may signal trouble: Demirguc-Kunt and Detragiache (1998) show that credit booms often
lead to crises, and Demirguc-Kunt and Maksimovic (2002) show that levels of banking and stock market
development not predicted by legal efficiency and creditor rights protection do not promote firm growth.
8
The Net Interest Margin measures the gap between what the banks pay the
providers of funds and what they get from firms and other users of bank credit and it
equals interest income minus interest expense divided by interest bearing assets, averaged
over the banks in each country. It is frequently used to measure efficiency despite the
fact that differences in net margins may reflect differences in bank activities rather than
differences in efficiency or competition. Net Interest Margin tends to decline with a
country's income, suggesting bank efficiency improves with development (Figure 3a).
Unlike measures of depth, dispersion in efficiency figures tends to be higher at the lower
end of the income distribution (Figure 3b and Table 1).
While measures of financial depth and margins are available for a large set of
countries, measures of the reach of the sector have been much more difficult to obtain
across countries. Until recently, we did not have answers to simple questions like what
proportion of the population has a bank account or loan. Beck, Demirguc-Kunt and
Martinez Peria (2005) is the first study to develop cross-country measures of access to
and use of banking services. One of their indicators, Number of loans per capita,
captures the use of credit services, with higher numbers indicating mode widespread use.
Figure 4a shows that use of bank credit increases drastically with income. But
differences within income groups are also large: while there are 770 bank loans per 1000
people in Poland, there are only 94 in Venezuela (Figure 4b and Table 1). Further
research in this area is moving in the direction of developing better indicators of access to
different financial services, using surveys both at the financial institution and household
level.
9
Another interesting indicator is the size of the financial system. For example
measured by the Liquid Liabilities of the financial system (M2), about one third of all the
countries have financial systems smaller than $1 billion, and another third have systems
smaller than $10 billion (Figure 5b). Leaving outliers like China or India aside, most
developing countries have very small financial systems (Figure 5a). This underlines the
importance of domestic policy actions to maximize each country's capacity to secure the
best provision of financial services from the global marketplace.
The last indicator, Freedom in Banking and Finance index, is a measure of
openness of the banking industry. It is constructed by the Heritage Foundation and
captures the extent of government involvement in the financial sector through ownership
and control of financial institutions, quality of regulation and supervision, existence of
interest controls, activity restrictions or directed lending, and the ability of foreign
institutions to operate freely. The index ranges from 1 to 5, with higher ratings indicating
less openness and freedom. Lower income countries allow their banks less freedom in
general, compared to more developed countries. But, for example comparing two
low-income countries, Cote d'Ivoire has a much more liberalized banking system with a
score of 2.5, whereas in Uzbekistan government still has heavy involvement in the
financial sector and allows no foreign entry, getting the highest possible score of 5
(Figure 6a,b).
The above analysis illustrates that financial systems vary widely with respect to
all dimensions. Even at similar levels of development, there are significant differences in
their size, depth, efficiency, breath and openness. Given the important role finance plays
in promoting development, there is a growing body of research that examines
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determinants of financial development. One area of this line of research focuses on
historical determinants of financial development and studies the legal, political, cultural,
ethnic and geographic differences across countries that may shape development of
financial institutions and markets.
La Porta et al. (1997 and 1998) stress that differences in legal traditions shape the
laws and enforcement mechanisms that protect the rights of outside investors, thus
influencing financial development. Focusing on the differences between the two most
influential legal traditions, the British Common law and the French Civil law, this view
holds that legal traditions differ in terms of the priority they attach to protecting the rights
of private investors against the state. Beck, Demirguc-Kunt and Levine (2003b and
2005) also show that legal system adaptability is crucial and more flexible legal systems
do a better job at meeting the continuously changing financial needs of the economy and
promoting financial development.
Haber (2004), Pagano and Volpin (2001), Rajan and Zingales (2003) focus on
how political economy forces shape national policies toward financial development and
influence and change the political power of entrenched incumbents. According to this
view, closed political systems are more likely to impede the development of financial
systems that promote competition and threaten entrenched powers than open political
systems. This is because centralized and powerful states are more responsive to and
efficient at implementing policies that protect the interests of the elite than decentralized
and competitive political systems with an assortment of checks and balances.
Stulz and Williamson (2003) emphasize the role of religion and culture in
influencing development of institutions. Many scholars argue that religion shapes
11
national views regarding institutions, including financial institutions. For example, it is
said that Catholic Church fosters "vertical bonds of authority" rather than "horizontal
bonds of fellowship." This view suggests that Catholic and Muslim countries tend to
develop cultures that maintain control, limiting competition and private property rights.
Alesina et al. (2003) and Easterly and Levine (2003) focus on ethnic differences, instead.
They argue that in highly ethnically diverse economies, the group that comes to power
tends to implement policies that expropriate resources, restrict the rights of other groups,
and prevent the growth of industries or sectors that threaten the ruling group.
Others stress the role of initial geographic endowments in determining attitudes
towards development of different institutions (Engerman and Sokoloff, 1997; Acemoglu,
Johnson and Robinson, 2001). Acemoglu et al. (2001) focus on the disease environment
and argue that the degree to which Europeans can settle in a land influenced the choice of
colonization strategy with long lasting implications on institutions. Engerman and
Sokoloff (1997) focus on the geographic endowments and study the differential
development of institutions in North America. They argue that the geographic conditions
in the North which favored production of wheat and maize fostered a large middle class
with egalitarian institutions, whereas the conditions in the South which led to the
production of rice and sugarcane also led to the rise of a powerful elite and more closed
institutions.
Beck, Demirguc-Kunt and Levine (2003a) investigate the relative importance of
these historical determinants of financial development and find that differences in initial
endowments and legal origins are robustly associated with development of financial
institutions and markets. Thus, countries with common law origins with better protection
12
of outside investors were more likely to develop financial institutions. But colonization
strategy also mattered: Tropical environments, inhospitable to European settlement, were
more likely to foster extractive institutions as opposed to institutions that promote
financial development.8
Perhaps most important from a policy viewpoint however, is the government's
role in building effective financial systems. In the next section, I review the role of
regulations and economic policies in influencing financial development.
III. Government's Role in Making Finance Work
Although finance thrives on market discipline and fails to contribute to
development process effectively in the presence of interventionist policies, governments
do have a very important role to play in promoting well-functioning financial systems.
Specifically, governments can help greatly through providing a stable political and
macroeconomic environment, fiscal discipline and good governance; well-functioning
legal and information infrastructure; and strong regulation and supervision that enable
greater market monitoring without distorting the incentives of market participants.
Governments can also improve the contestability and efficiency of financial systems by
avoiding ownership of financial institutions, and liberalizing their systems including
allowing foreign entry. Government policies can also help in efforts to facilitate broad
access to financial services. Below, I discuss each of these areas and, where applicable,
pros and cons of different policies.
8Ayyagari, Demirguc-Kunt and Maksimovic (2006a, b) instead focus on property rights protection and
show that legal origin is not a robust determinant whereas ethnic fractionalization is.
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IIIa. Political and Macroeconomic Environment
Even if historical factors are favorable to financial development, political turmoil
may lead to macroeconomic instability and deterioration in business conditions. Civil
strife and war destroys capital and infrastructure, and expropriations may follow military
takeovers. Corruption and crime thrive in such environments, increasing cost of doing
business and creating uncertainty about property rights. Detragiache, Gupta and Tressel
(2005) show that for low-income countries political instability and corruption have a
detrimental effect on financial development. Investigating the business environment for
80 countries using firm level survey data, Ayyagari, Demirguc-Kunt and Maksimovic
(2005) find that political instability and crime are important obstacles to firm growth,
particularly in African and Transition countries. Further, Beck, Demirguc-Kunt and
Maksimovic (2005) show that the negative impact of corruption on firm growth is most
pronounced for smaller firms.
Given a stable political system, well functioning financial systems also require
fiscal discipline and stable macroeconomic policies on the part of governments.
Monetary and fiscal policies affect the taxation of financial intermediaries and provision
of financial services (Bencivenga and Smith, 1992; Huybens and Smith, 1999; Roubini
and Sala-i-Martin, 1992 and Roubini and Sala-i-Martin, 1995). Often large financing
requirements of governments crowd out private investment by increasing the required
returns on government securities and absorbing the bulk of the savings mobilized by the
financial system. Bank profitability does not necessarily suffer given the high yields on
these securities, but the ability of the financial system to allocate resources efficiently is
severely curtailed. Empirical studies have also shown that countries with lower and more
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stable inflation rates experience higher levels of banking and stock market development
(Boyd, Levine and Smith, 2001) and high inflation and real interest rates are associated
with higher probability of systemic banking crises (Demirguc-Kunt and Detragiache,
1998 and 2005).
IIIb. Legal and Information Infrastructure
Financial systems also require developed legal and information infrastructures to
function well. Firms' ability to raise external finance in the formal financial system is
quite limited if the rights of outside investors are not protected. Outside investors are
reluctant to invest in companies if they will not be able to exert corporate governance and
protect their investment from controlling shareholders/owners or the management of the
companies. Thus, protection of property rights and effective enforcement of contracts are
critical elements in financial system development.
Empirical evidence shows firms are able to access external finance in countries
where legal enforcement is stronger (La Porta et al., 1997; Demirguc-Kunt and
Maksimovic, 1998; Beck, Demirguc-Kunt and Maksimovic, 2005), and that better
creditor protection increases credit to the private sector (Djankov, McLiesh and Shleifer,
2005). More effective legal systems allow more flexible and adaptable conflict
resolution, increasing firms' access to finance (Djankov et al., 2003; Beck, Demirguc-
Kunt and Levine, 2005). In countries where legal systems are more effective, financial
systems have lower interest rate spreads and are more efficient (Demirguc-Kunt, Laeven
and Levine, 2004; Laeven and Majnoni, 2005).
Timely availability of good quality information is equally important, since this
helps reduce information asymmetries between borrowers and lenders. The collection,
15
processing and use of borrowing history and other information relevant to household and
small business lending ­ credit registries - have been rapidly growing in both the public
and private sectors (see Miller, 2003, for an overview). Computer technology has also
greatly improved the amount of information that can be analyzed to assess
creditworthiness, such as through credit scoring techniques. Governments can play an
important role in this process, and while establishment of public credit registries may
discourage private entry, in several cases it has actually encouraged private registries to
enter in order to provide a wider and deeper range of services. Governments are also
important in creating and supporting the legal system needed for conflict resolution and
contract enforcement, and strengthening accounting infrastructures to enable financial
development.
Empirical results show that the volume of bank credit is significantly higher in
countries with more information sharing (Jappelli and Pagano, 2002; and Djankov,
McLeish and Shleifer, 2005). Firms also report lower financing obstacles with better
credit information (Love and Mylenko, 2003). Detragiache, Gupta and Tressel (2005)
find that better access to information and speedier enforcement of contracts are associated
with deeper financial systems even in low-income countries. Indeed, compared to high
income countries, in lower income countries it is credit information more than legal
enforcement that matters (Djankov et al., 2005).
IIIc. Regulation and Supervision
For as long as there have been banks, there have also been governments
regulating them. While most economists agree that there is a role for government in the
regulation and supervision of financial systems, the extent of this involvement is an issue
16
of active debate (Barth, Caprio and Levine, 2006; Beck, 2006). One extreme view is the
laissez-faire or invisible-hand approach, where there is no role for government in the
financial system, and markets are expected to monitor and discipline financial
institutions. This approach has been criticized for ignoring market failures as depositors,
particularly small depositors, often find it too costly to be effective monitors.9 Thus,
governments often act as delegated monitors for depositors, exploiting economies of
scale to overcome costly information problems.
On the other extreme is the complete interventionist approach, where government
regulation is seen as the solution to market failures (Stigler, 1971). According to this
view, powerful supervisors are expected to ensure stability of the financial system and
guide banks in their business decisions through regulation and supervision. This view
relies on two crucial assumptions. First, that governments know better than markets, and
second, that they act in the best interests of the society. To the extent that officials
generally have limited knowledge and expertise in making business decisions and can be
subject to political and regulatory capture, these assumptions will not be valid (Becker
and Stigler, 1974; Haber et al. 2003).
Between the two extremes lies the private empowerment view of financial
regulation. This view simultaneously recognizes the potential importance of market
failures which motivate government intervention, and political/regulatory failures, which
suggest that supervisory agencies do not necessarily have incentives to ease market
failures. The focus is on enabling markets, where there is an important role for
9Small depositors have to be protected, but banks also need to be protected against runs by uninformed
depositors that may precipitate forced liquidations. Further, market imperfections may also prevent optimal
resource allocation, as powerful banks may extract rents from firms, reducing their incentives to undertake
profitable investments. See Levine (2005) for further discussion.
17
governments in enhancing the ability and incentives of private agents to overcome
information and transaction costs, so that private investors can exert effective governance
over banks. Consequently, the private empowerment view seeks to provide supervisors
with the responsibility and authority to induce banks to disclose accurate information to
the public, so that private agents can more effectively monitor banks (Barth, Caprio and
Levine, 2006).
Empirical evidence overwhelmingly supports the private empowerment view.
While there is little evidence that empowering regulators enhances bank stability, there is
evidence that regulations and supervisory practices that force accurate information
disclosure and promote private sector monitoring boost the overall level of banking sector
and stock market development (Barth, Caprio and Levine, 2006).
Beck, Demirguc-Kunt and Levine (2006) show that bank supervisory practices
that force accurate information disclosure ease external financing constraints of firms,
while countries that empower their official supervisors actually make external financing
constraints more severe by increasing the degree of corruption in bank lending.10
Consistent with these findings, Demirguc-Kunt, Detragiache and Tressel (2006)
investigate compliance with Basel Core Principles of regulation and supervision and
show that only information disclosure rules have a significant impact on bank soundness.
Finally, Detragiache, Gupta and Tressel (2005) find little significant impact of regulatory
and supervisory practices on financial development of low-income countries. Where
10La Porta et al. (2006) find a similarly positive effect of private monitoring and disciplining for stock
market development. Laws and liability rules that mandate disclosure and facilitate private enforcement
promote stock market development, while there is little evidence for a positive effect of public
enforcement.
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there is significance, greater supervisory powers seem to be negatively associated with
financial depth.
Related to the debate on different approaches for regulation and supervision, is
the important debate on whether prudential regulation and safety nets designed for
developed countries can be successfully transplanted to developing countries. Research
shows that financial sector policy which is considered appropriate in advanced economies
can prove ineffective or even counterproductive in weak institutional environments of
developing countries. For example, powerful regulators are not significantly associated
with increased corruption in banking in countries with strong institutions that provide
checks and balances, but lead to greater capture and corruption in lower-income
countries. However, although empowering the markets and focusing on information
disclosure are policies that promote bank stability most effectively in countries where
there is strong rule of law, we do not observe negative effects of such policies even in
low-income countries (Beck, Demirguc-Kunt and Levine, 2006).11 For developing
countries, these results have important implications for which aspects of the Basel II
accord (which was designed for and by regulators in advanced economies) to adopt and
over what time period. In particular, the complicated rules and procedures for
determining bank capital adequacy pre-suppose expertise and governance conditions
which simply do not exist in most low-income countries.
Similarly, research has questioned safety net design, particularly adoption of
deposit insurance in developing countries by highlighting the potential costs of explicit
schemes ­lower market discipline, higher financial fragility, and lower financial
11Consistent with these results, Demirguc-Kunt, Detragiache and Tressel (2006) show that compliance
with the information disclosure rules of Basel Core Principles promotes bank stability where there is strong
rule of law.
19
development ­ in countries where complementary institutions are not strong enough to
keep these costs under control (Demirguc-Kunt and Kane, 2002; Demirguc-Kunt and
Detragiache, 2002; Demirguc-Kunt and Huizinga, 2004; Cull, Senbet and Sorge, 2005).
These findings are particularly important for lower income countries with
underdeveloped institutions. For example, Detragiache, Gupta and Tressel (2005) also
find that presence of an explicit deposit insurance system does not lead to more deposit
mobilization in low-income countries; to the contrary it is associated with lower levels of
deposits.12
IIId. Contestability and Efficiency
Policymakers around the world frequently express concern about whether their
countries' bank competition policies are appropriately designed to produce well-
functioning and stable banks. Globalization and the resulting consolidation in banking
have further spurred interest in this issue, leading to an active public policy debate.
Competition policies in banking may involve difficult trade-offs. While greater
competition may enhance the efficiency of banks with positive implications for economic
growth, greater competition may also destabilize banks with costly repercussions for the
economy.
Recent research has shown that contrary to conventional wisdom, there are no
difficult trade-offs when it comes to bank competition. Greater competition ­ as captured
by lower entry barriers, fewer regulatory restrictions on bank activities, greater banking
freedom, and better overall institutional development ­ is good for efficiency, good for
12Using a sample of developed and developing countries, Cecchetti and Krause (2004) also find that
explicit deposit insurance results in less credit provision to the private sector.
20
stability, and good for firms' access to finance (Berger et al., 2004).13 Indeed, regulations
that interfere with competition make banks less efficient, more fragile, and reduce firms'
access to finance. Thus, it is a good idea for governments to encourage competition in
banking by reducing the unnecessary impediments to entry and activity restrictions.
Similarly, improving the institutional environment and allowing greater freedoms in
banking and economy in general would lead to desirable outcomes.
Ownership is another important dimension of competition in banking. As I
discuss further in sections IIIe and f, research shows that while foreign banking is
associated with generally positive outcomes, state ownership is associated with higher
margins, greater fragility and less access. These results highlight the importance of
removing impediments to foreign entry and provide further justification for bank
privatization policies. Finally, bank concentration, which has been the focus of much
policy discussion, is not a good proxy for the overall competitive environment per se and
its impact often depends on the existing regulatory and institutional framework. Hence
governments would do better to focus on improving the underlying regulatory and
institutional environment (as discussed in sections IIIb and c) and ownership structure to
promote contestable financial systems, rather than trying to reduce concentration levels in
banking.
IIIe. Government Ownership of Financial Institutions
Policymakers in many countries have felt the need to retain public ownership of
banks. However, research has shown that government ownership of banks everywhere,
but especially in developing countries, lead to lower levels of financial development,
13Also see Beck, Demirguc-Kunt and Maksimovic (2004), Beck, Demirguc-Kunt and Levine (2006),
Claessens and Laeven (2004), and Demirguc-Kunt, Laeven and Levine (2004).
21
more concentrated lending and lower economic growth, and greater systemic fragility (La
Porta et al., 2002; Barth, Caprio and Levine, 2004). The inefficient allocation of credit
by state-owned banks to politically-favored and commercially unviable projects
frequently necessitates costly recapitalizations (Cole, 2005; Dinc, 2005). Thus, empirical
evidence shows that the ownership of financial firms is an area where the public sector
tends not to have a comparative advantage; such ownership weakens the financial system
and the economy.
However, privatization also entails risks and needs careful design. Studies of
privatization processes suggest the preferred strategy is moving slowly but deliberately
with bank privatization, while preparing state banks for sale and addressing weaknesses
in the overall incentive environment. On average, bank privatization tends to improve
performance over continued state ownership, and there are advantages to full rather than
partial privatizations, and in weak institutional environments selling to a strategic
investor and inviting foreign interests to participate in the process increase the benefits
(see Clarke, Cull, Shirley, 2005). Privatization, however, is not a panacea, and privatizing
banks without addressing weaknesses in the underlying incentive environment and
market structure will not lead to a deeper and more efficient financial system.
IIIf. Financial Liberalization
As illustrated above, in comparison with the scale of global finance, financial
systems in individual developing countries are often very small. Small financial systems
underperform because they suffer from concentration of risks, cannot exploit economies
of scale and are thus more vulnerable to external shocks (Bossone, Honohan and Long,
22
2001). Theoretically, these countries fall short of minimum efficient scale and have
much to gain by liberalizing and sourcing some of their financial services from abroad.
There is a very large literature on macroeconomic and international financial
issues which are outside the scope of this paper. In this section I limit my discussion to
(a) the impact of financial liberalization on financial development and the importance of
sequencing liberalization and institutional reforms; (b) the impact of exchange rate
regime on financial fragility; and the impact of (c) foreign entry and (d) international
capital flows on financial development.
Financial liberalization, financial development and the sequencing of reforms.
Many countries have liberalized their financial systems in the 1980s and 1990s with
mixed results. Liberalization, including deregulation of interest rates and more relaxed
entry policies, often led to significant financial development, particularly in countries
where there was significant repression, but the enthusiasm with which financial
liberalization was adopted in some countries in the absence of or slow implementation of
institutional development also left many financial systems vulnerable to systemic crises
(Demirguc-Kunt and Detragiache, 1999). Poor sequencing of financial liberalization in a
poorly prepared contractual and supervisory environment contributed to bank
insolvencies as banks protected by implicit and explicit government guarantees
aggressively took advantage of new opportunities to increase risk, without the necessary
lending skills. Banking crises in Argentina, Chile, Mexico and Turkey in the 1980s and
1990s have been attributed to these factors (Demirguc-Kunt and Detragiache, 2005).
On the other hand, many Sub-Saharan African countries that have also liberalized
their interest rates and credit allocation and privatized their institutions by allowing entry
23
of reputable foreign banks did not suffer instability but from lower intermediation and in
some cases lower access to financial services. Some of this was due to the absence of an
effective contractual and informational framework (See Beck and Fuchs, 2004). This has
also resulted in claims of failed liberalizations in these countries and calls for greater
government intervention in the financial sector.14 Both of these experiences with
financial liberalization underline the importance of sequencing liberalization and
institutional improvements.
Impact of exchange rate policy on financial fragility. The choice of an
appropriate exchange rate regime for developing countries is another issue of active
debate.15 One of the reasons this is an important issue is because the choice of exchange
rate regime may influence the extent to which the impact of external shocks affect
financial stability. For instance, flexible exchange rates may have a stabilizing effect on
the financial system since the exchange rate can absorb some of the real shocks to the
economy (Mundell, 1961). Flexible regimes may also curtail the tendency of countries to
over-borrow in foreign currency and discourage banks from funding dangerous lending
booms through external credit (Eichengreen and Hausmann, 1999). Further, with a fixed
exchange rate (and even more so with a currency board), lender of last resort operations
are severely limited, since domestic monetary expansion risks undermining confidence in
the currency peg.
On the other hand, a commitment to a currency peg may reduce the probability of
banking crises by disciplining policymakers (Eichengreen and Rose, 1998). The lack of
an effective lender of last resort may also discourage risk-taking by bankers, decreasing
14However, after a slow start, credit growth is accelerating across Africa, and there has also been a catch-
up in access, often through growth of cooperatives and other microfinance institutions.
15See Yagci (2006) in this volume for an extensive discussion.
24
the likelihood of a banking crisis. Finally, developing countries are often plagued by lack
of credibility and limited access to international markets, and suffer from more
pronounced effects of exchange rate volatility due to their high liability dollarization.
Thus, the additional transparency and credibility associated with fixed exchange rates
may insulate a country from contagion (Calvo, 1999).
Empirically, Arteta and Eichengreen (2002) find that countries with fixed and
flexible exchange rates are equally susceptible to banking crises. In contrast, Domac and
Martinez Peria (2003) find that adopting a fixed exchange rate regime diminishes the
likelihood of a banking crisis in developing countries. However, once a crisis occurs, its
economic cost is larger under a fixed exchange rate.
Studies on the impact of dollarization on financial fragility similarly reveal mixed
evidence. Dollarization is a symptom of weak domestic currencies and volatile real
exchange rates and thus may be associated with fragility. Arteta (2003) investigates the
impact of deposit and credit dollarization for a large number of developing and transition
countries and finds no evidence that dollarization increases fragility. De Nicolo,
Honohan and Ize (2003) perform a similar test but measure fragility using average Z-
scores (measuring the distance to default for the banking system, which is different from
the actual occurrence of a systemic crisis) and non-performing loans across a large
number of countries. In contrast to Arteta's results, they find that dollarization is
positively related to both measures of bank fragility. More research is needed in these
areas to guide the on-going policy discussion on the impact of exchange rate policies.
Impact of foreign entry. With financial liberalization, more and more developing
economies also allow entry of foreign financial institutions. While governments have
25
worried about whether allowing foreign banks to take a large ownership share in the
banking system could damage financial and economic performance, the bulk of the
empirical research in this area, particularly drawing on the experience of Latin American
and Eastern European countries, suggests that facilitating entry of reputable foreign
institutions to the local market should be welcomed. Foreign banks bring competition,
improve efficiency, lift the quality of the financial infrastructure and expand access
(Claessens, Demirguc-Kunt and Huizinga, 2001; Clarke, Cull and Martinez Peria,
2001).16
As the African experience illustrates, foreign bank entry cannot guarantee rapid
financial development in the absence of sound contractual and informational weaknesses,
however. Such weaknesses can prevent low-income countries from reaping full benefits
of opening their markets to foreign providers of financial services, and can potentially
explain the finding that greater foreign bank penetration is associated with lower levels of
financial development (Detragiache, Tressel, Gupta, 2006).17 However, addressing these
weaknesses is likely to allow foreign banks to act as an important catalyst for the sort of
financial development that promotes growth.
Impact of international capital flows. While there is consensus that liberalizing
financial systems facilitates their development, there are also concerns that this leaves
16While in some countries like Pakistan, foreign banks have been shown to lend less to smaller more
opaque borrowers because they rely on hard information (Mian, 2003), evidence from Eastern Europe has
shown that foreign banks eventually go down market increasing small business lending (De Haas and
Naaborg, 2005). This is consistent with recent research that shows as new transaction-based lending
techniques have been developed, where large foreign institutions have greater advantage, relationship
lending, thus small, domestic institutions have become less important for SME lending (Berger and Udell,
2006).
17Another explanation why cross-country correlations between foreign bank penetration and financial
development may be negative in low-income countries is that in most of those countries foreign bank entry
was through privatization of failed government banks.
26
them more open to volatility and crises.18 As discussed above, one way of containing
such volatility is stronger fundamentals, hence proper sequencing of reforms.19 Policy
discussion has also focused on proper design of capital controls, which could prevent or
mitigate the effects of sudden shifts in foreign capital. Controls can take the form of
restrictions on outflows; restrictions on aggregate inflows; restrictions on short-term
flows (a la Chile); or a Tobin tax, aimed at imposing a small uniform tax on all foreign
exchange transactions, regardless of their nature.
There is a large literature on the effects of capital controls, but overall, these
empirical studies suggest that these controls work at best temporarily, with the effects
diminishing over time, and are not effective in preventing spillovers from very large
shocks (Kaminsky and Schmukler, 2001).
Besides debt and equity flows, workers' remittances, funds received from
migrants working abroad, have grown steadily in recent years becoming the second
largest source of external finance after foreign direct investment. Furthermore, unlike
other capital flows, remittances tend to be stable even during periods of economic
downturns and crises. Recent research also provides evidence that remittances do
promote financial development (Aggarwal, Demirguc-Kunt and Martinez Peria, 2006).
Other studies emphasize the importance of financial development in allowing countries to
make the most out of capital flows. For example, Hermes and Lensink (2003) show that
18Opening up allows firms to raise resources abroad but Levine and Schmukler (2005) show that it may
also reduce the trading activity of these firms on domestic stock exchanges, negatively affecting the
liquidity of other firms that do not go abroad. However, Ferreira and Matos (2005) show that with
increased cross-listing, foreign ownership of shares traded on the local exchanges also increase.
19Note that studies suggest volatility tends to decrease in the long run, with more integrated markets having
lower volatility due to better diversification and development of the financial sector (Bekaert and Harvey,
2003). However, liberalization does also increase the probability of crisis (Demirguc-Kunt and
Detragiache, 1999).
27
a more developed financial system positively contributes to the process of technological
diffusion associated with foreign direct investment.
IIIg. Facilitating Access
Access to financial services has increasingly been receiving greater emphasis over
the recent years, becoming a focal part of the overall development agenda. One reason is
the accumulating evidence on the importance of finance for growth, and the belief that
limited access to finance is a contributor to not being able to escape poverty. Another is
the observation that small enterprises and poor households face much greater obstacles in
their ability to access finance all around the world, but particularly in developing
countries.
What does access to finance mean? There are many dimensions of access,
including availability, cost, and range and quality of services being offered. Morduch
(1999) defines these dimensions as (a) reliability, whether finance is available when it is
needed or desired; (b) convenience, how easy it is to access finance; (c) continuity, ability
to access finance repeatedly; and (d) flexibility, whether the product is tailored to the
needs of the household or enterprise.
While there is much data on financial sector development more broadly, there is
very little data on usage and access to finance, both for households and firms. Hence,
there is also very limited analysis on the impact of access to finance on economic
development. Research using firm level survey data suggests that financing obstacles are
the most constraining among different barriers to growth (Ayyagari, Demirguc-Kunt and
Maksimovic, 2005). Financing obstacles are also found to be highest and most
constraining for the growth of smaller firms (Beck, Demirguc-Kunt and Maksimovic,
28
2005). At the household level, lack of access to credit is shown to perpetuate poverty
because poor households reduce their children's education (Jacoby, 1994; Jacoby and
Skoufias, 1997). Similarly, Dehejia and Gatti (2003) find that child labor rates are higher
in countries with under-developed financial systems, while Beegle et al. (2003) show that
transitory income shocks to greater increases in child labor in countries with poorly
functioning financial systems. A better understanding of what the chief obstacles to
improving access are, and access to which type of financial services has the greater
impact on reducing poverty and promoting growth, will need to wait for availability of
better data in this area.
There are many different reasons why the poor do not have access to finance ­
loans, savings accounts, insurance services. Social and physical distance from the formal
financial system may matter. The poor may not have anybody in their social network
who knows the various services that are available to them. Lack of education may make
it difficult for them to overcome problems with filling out loan applications, and the
small number of transactions they are likely to undertake may make the loan officers
think it is not worthwhile to help them. As financial institutions are likely to be in richer
neighborhoods, physical distance may also matter, banks simply may not be near the poor
(Beck and De la Torre, 2006). Specifically for access to credit services, there are two
important problems. First, the poor have no collateral, and cannot borrow against their
future income because they tend not to have steady jobs or income streams to keep track
of. Second, dealing with small transactions is costly for the financial institutions.
Ceilings on the rates financial institutions can charge backfire and limit access to the poor
even more.
29
Microfinance ­specialized institutions that serve the poor - tries to overcome
these problems in innovative ways. Loan officers come from similar social status as the
borrowers and go to the poor instead of waiting for the poor to come to them.
Microcredit also involves education as much as it provides credit. Group lending
schemes not only improve repayment incentives and monitoring through peer pressure,
but they are also a way of building support networks and educating borrowers.
Has microfinance fulfilled its promise? Microfinance allows poor people to have
more direct access, but development of microfinance around the world has been very
non-uniform, with significant penetration rates only in a few countries like Bangladesh,
Indonesia and Thailand (Honohan, 2004). Group lending is very costly since labor cost
per dollar of transactions needs to be high by design. The most controversial aspect of
microfinance, however, has been the extent of subsidy required to provide this access.
Overall, the microfinance sector remains heavily grant and subsidy dependent. Skeptics
question whether microfinance is the best way to provide those subsidies and point out
that development of mainstream finance is a more promising way to reach the poor and
alleviate poverty in significant ways.
There are also good political economy reasons why we should not focus on the
poor and ask how we can make microfinance more viable, but instead ask how financial
services can be made available for all (Rajan, 2006).20 The poor lack the political clout to
demand better services, and subsidies may spoil the credit culture. By defining the issue
more broadly to include the middle class who often also lack access, would make it more
likely that promotion of financial assess will be made a priority.
20Rajan (2006) argues "...let's not kill the microfinance movement with kindness. If we want it to become
more than a fad...it has to follow the clear and unsentimental path of adding value and making money. On
that path lies the possibility of a true, and large-scale escape from poverty."
30
What can governments do to promote access? First and foremost, governments
can further access by making and encouraging infrastructure improvements. Better legal,
information, payments systems, distribution and other structures can allow technology to
bring down transaction costs. Research shows that small firms and firms in countries
with poor institutions use less external finance, especially less bank finance, and that
other types of finance are imperfect substitutes (Beck, Demirguc-Kunt and Maksimovic,
2005). For example, at the household level, giving each individual a national
identification number and creating credit registries where lenders share information about
their clients' repayment records would help since all borrowers could then borrow using
their future access to credit as collateral (Rajan, 2006).
Government regulation can also help. Removal of interest ceilings, or usury laws,
would allow institutions to charge the rates that they need to be profitable and improve
access. These regulations end up hurting the very poor they are trying to protect as the
supply of these services completely dry up. Anti-predatory lending or truth in lending
requirements is also very important since households may also be forced into over-
borrowing by unscrupulous lenders. Reducing costs of registering and repossessing
collateral is crucial. In Brazil for example, inability to repossess property has contributed
to the cost of the housing finance program, keeping the mortgage rates too high to be
affordable for the poor. Anti-discrimination policies may also help against cases of active
or passive discrimination against the poor or different ethnic groups.
Financial regulations can also prevent the emergence of institutions better suited
to the needs of lower income households or smaller firms. Rigid chartering rules, high
capital adequacy requirements, very strict accounting requirements may reduce the ability
31
of institutions to serve the poorer segments of the society. As many households are
interested in savings services but not in credit services, considering and regulating
savings mobilization separately from credit services may be helpful (Claessens, 2005).
For example in South Africa, extension of bank regulation and supervision to
microfinance institutions reduced their capacity to offer their services profitably
(Glaessner et al. 2004).
Governments can also be instrumental in facilitating innovative technologies to
improve access. For example in Mexico, a program developed by Nafin, a government
development bank, allows many small suppliers to use their receivables from large credit-
worthy buyers to receive working capital financing (Klapper, 2006). This type of trade
finance is called reverse factoring and effectively allows small firms to borrow based on
the creditworthiness of their buyers, allowing them to borrow more at cheaper rates.21
Governments can also opt to stimulate access more directly. The US Treasury's
Electronic Transfer Accounts (ETAs) to increase use of bank accounts, US Community
Reinvestment Act (CRA) to improve access to credit services, legal measures adopted by
the UK, France, Sweden, and Ireland among others, are such examples. However, there
is little consensus on the success of those schemes (Peachey and Roe, 2004; Claessens,
2005) and whether they can be replicated in developing countries. The experiences with
credit extensions, especially to improve the maturity structure of debt and reach the
SMEs, are extensive in both developed and developing countries. However, both the
rationale for and effectiveness of those interventions are much more doubtful (see Caprio
and Demirguc-Kunt, 1997; Beck and Demirguc-Kunt, 2006).
21Also see Berger and Udell (2006) for a discussion of different innovative technologies that can expand
access of small firms even in the absence of a strong institutional environment. De la Torre and Schmukler
(2005) includes other such public-private partnership examples of expanding access.
32
Last but perhaps most importantly, governments can improve access by
increasing competition in the financial sector. As financial institutions find their
traditional business coming under competition, they seek out new lines of profitable
opportunities, including lending to the SMEs and the poor. Given the right incentives,
private sector can develop and make use of new technologies ­ like credit scoring ­ to
reach the underserved segments. Foreign banks' role in improving the competition
environment and improving access is important. There is accumulating evidence that
foreign banks can enhance access (Clarke et al, 2001 and 2003).22 Indeed, multinational
banks have been leading the way in expanding access all around the world.23
IV. Challenges for Low-Income Countries
Should all countries follow these recommendations? While the general messages
will not be dissimilar, the directions in which financial sector needs improvement in
different countries will be based on their initial conditions (World Bank, 2001). These
reforms are the most challenging for low-income countries, where the legacy of financial
repression and state ownership has generally hampered the development of a vigorous
private financial system, where the underlying legal and information infrastructure is
weak, and achieving minimum efficient scale will be difficult. Supported by stable and
sustainable macro policies, a priority for the state would be to divest itself of bank
holdings and attract reputable international banks. If democracy is weak and ethnic
conflict is high, a significant level of uncertainty will prevail, which will likely deter
22Also see the country examples discussed in Claessens (2005).
23Studies have found that while foreign banks with small local presence do not appear to lend much to
small businesses, large foreign banks in many cases surpass large domestic banks. See for example,
Sanchez et al. 2006.
33
entry by good foreign banks. Low population density is another factor that may deter
entry.
Legal and informational infrastructures are likely to be weak, and will need to be
strengthened if financial systems are to function well. Transport and communications
infrastructures are also essential for financial development. In financial regulation,
political capture and corruption will potentially be an issue, so transparency,
independence and accountability will be important. Although markets are likely to be
underdeveloped and the rule of law weak, encouraging and empowering the market to
participate in monitoring through education and disclosure will have longer-term
pay-offs. The temptation to extend government guarantees ­ in the form of deposit
insurance ­ to bolster confidence in the formal financial system should be resisted, as it
has been shown to create moral hazard and backfire. The country is likely to be too small
and too poor to sustain a liquid securities market, so this is an area of reform best left till
after other priorities are addressed. Reducing bank concentration is not a worthy goal in
itself either, the focus of policy should be improving contestability instead ­ through
lower entry barriers, fewer restrictions on bank activities and freedoms. Improving
competition in this way, coupled with institutional reforms, should increase the
availability and lower the cost of credit to enterprises with good growth opportunities.
Governments would do well to remove barriers that prevent borrowers and
lenders from accessing international capital markets, as institutional improvements are
made. While this will increase volatility at least in the short run, it will also lead to
significant benefits in terms of overall financial development. If the country is small,
exploring possibilities for regional cooperation may be fruitful in improving access to
34
higher quality financial services. Technological advances, facilitated by greater
competition and entry of foreign know-how, can lead to promising innovations in the
areas of deposits, payments, credit, and risk management, making basic financial services
available to poor households and small firms.
V. Conclusions
A well-functioning financial system is one of the key foundations on which
sustained economic development can be built. Research suggests that financial sector
development plays an independent and causal role in promoting long-run economic
growth. More recent evidence has also shown that finance is not only pro-growth, but
also pro-poor: Well developed financial systems are associated with more rapid growth
in the incomes of the poor, helping them catch up with the rest of the economy as it
grows.
Yet, financial development differs sharply around the world. Even at similar
levels of income, countries have very different levels of financial development. If
finance is a key driver of economic development, what can governments do to promote
financial development? Research so far suggests a number of important policy
recommendations. First and foremost, well functioning financial systems need stable
macroeconomic policies and strong legal and information systems. Making infrastructure
improvements a priority is a must. Second, promoting a contestable financial sector ­ as
characterized by lower entry barriers, fewer regulatory restrictions on bank activities,
greater banking freedoms -is essential for improving depth, efficiency and access. This
means reducing government ownership through careful privatization, and domestic and
35
international liberalization including foreign entry. Opening up is also accompanied by
risks however, particularly a higher risk of financial crisis, and therefore needs to be
synchronized with improvements in institutional improvements.
Third, governments have an important role to play as regulators. But empirical
evidence suggests the best approach to regulation is one which empowers the markets,
rather than creating all powerful regulators who may be subject to corruption and
political and industry capture. Empowering the market entails enforcing accurate and
timely information disclosure and providing the right incentives for market participants to
make sure they remain vigilant monitors ­ for example, through avoiding generous and
mis-priced deposit insurance, or forbearance policies that distort risk-taking incentives.
Research also questions the wisdom of transplanting First World practice to developing
countries. Often regulations considered appropriate in developed economies prove
ineffective or counterproductive in weaker institutional settings: Explicit deposit
insurance may destabilize the very financial system it is meant to protect, and powerful
supervisors may be more prone to corruption and extracting rents. Hence, the importance
of institutional factors that need strengthening to support these policies.
Finally, governments have an important role to play in facilitating broad access to
financial services, i.e., in expanding the availability of the range of financial services to a
broader set of households, firms and sectors in the economy. A sure way of improving
access is by making and encouraging infrastructure improvements. Better legal,
information, payments systems, distribution and other structures can allow technology to
bring down transaction costs. Promoting competition in the financial sector and allowing
36
foreign institutions will also encourage the private sector to reach the under-served
segments and increase the speed with which access-improving technologies are adopted.
Consumer protection rules such as anti-discrimination and anti-predatory lending
regulations would help, and so would removal of interest ceilings that end up hurting the
poor. Governments can also be instrumental in facilitating innovative technologies to
improve access through private-public partnerships.
Finally, while the general messages will be similar, the priorities and the extent to
which financial sector needs improvement in each country will depend on initial
conditions, with the reforms being the most challenging for low-income countries.
37
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Table 1. Financial Indicators : Summary Statistics by Income Group
Full Sample No. of Obs. Mean Std. Dev. Min Max
Private Credit / GDP 156 0.447 0.416 0.008 2.067
Stock Market Capitalization 107 0.465 0.550 0.004 3.798
Net Interest Margin 156 0.053 0.034 0.009 0.240
M2 (mil. 2000 USD) 159 123,757 735,395 20 6,604,461
Number of Loans per 1000 People 44 200.02 222.50 4.44 771.80
Freedom Score - Banking & Finance 163 3.0 1.0 1.0 5.0
High Income Countries No. of Obs. Mean Std. Dev. Min Max
Private Credit / GDP 37 0.997 0.379 0.294 2.067
Stock Market Capitalization 36 0.885 0.688 0.098 3.798
Net Interest Margin 45 0.025 0.009 0.009 0.051
M2 (mil. 2000 USD) 23 676,638 1,820,871 3,423 6,604,461
Number of Loans per 1000 People 10 450.50 247.99 48.75 753.98
Freedom Score - Banking & Finance 37 2.3 0.9 1.0 3.5
Upper Middle Income Countries No. of Obs. Mean Std. Dev. Min Max
Private Credit / GDP 32 0.442 0.316 0.101 1.306
Stock Market Capitalization 25 0.374 0.395 0.019 1.470
Net Interest Margin 28 0.053 0.029 0.018 0.150
M2 (mil. 2000 USD) 35 25,293 37,628 112 162,953
Number of Loans per 1000 People 11 251.81 211.23 53.85 771.80
Freedom Score - Banking & Finance 29 2.6 0.9 1.0 5.0
Lower Middle Income Countries No. of Obs. Mean Std. Dev. Min Max
Private Credit / GDP 40 0.307 0.207 0.029 1.018
Stock Market Capitalization 30 0.213 0.214 0.005 0.844
Net Interest Margin 41 0.062 0.028 0.011 0.127
M2 (mil. 2000 USD) 48 58,545 294,801 72 2,045,992
Number of Loans per 1000 People 18 74.41 54.00 4.44 249.60
Freedom Score - Banking & Finance 46 3.2 0.9 1.5 5.0
Low-Income Countries No. of Obs. Mean Std. Dev. Min Max
Private Credit / GDP 47 0.137 0.091 0.008 0.399
Stock Market Capitalization 16 0.132 0.136 0.004 0.529
Net Interest Margin 42 0.075 0.039 0.025 0.240
M2 (mil. 2000 USD) 53 7,910 40,830 20 296,826
Number of Loans per 1000 People 5 37.33 39.73 4.50 98.11
Freedom Score - Banking & Finance 51 3.6 0.8 2.5 5.0
48
Figure 1. Private Credit / GDP
(a)
Distribution by Income Group (mean)
1. High Income
2. Upper Middle Income
3. Lower Middle Income
4. Low Income
0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1
Private Credit / GDP
Sample size: 156 countries
Time period: 2000-2004 Avg.
Source: Beck et. al. 2006. Financial Structure Database (The World Bank)
(b)
USA
2.00
CHE
1.50
PDG/ti MYS
edrC 1.00 THA
e
atvirP FIN
0.50
VNM
ETH
BDI PER
LBY
0.00 SDN
4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00
Log of GDP per capita (2000 USD)
Sample size: 152 countries
Time period: 2000-2004 Avg.
Source: Beck et. al. 2006. Financial Structure Database (The World Bank)
49
Figure 2. Stock Market Capitalization / GDP
(a)
Distribution by Income Group (mean)
1. High Income
2. Upper Middle Income
3. Lower Middle Income
4. Low Income
0 .2 .4 .6 .8
Stock Market Capitalization / GDP
Sample size: 107 countries
Time period: 2000-2004 Avg.
Source: Beck et. al. 2006. Financial Structure Database (The World Bank)
(b)
4.00
HKG
PDG/ 3.00
onitazilatpiaC CHE
2.00
etkra ZAFMYS
Mk 1.00
octS
CRI ARE
0.00
4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00
Log of GDP per capita (2000 USD)
Sample size: 105 countries
Time period: 2000-2004 Avg.
Source: Beck et. al. 2006. Financial Structure Database (The World Bank)
50
Figure 3. Net Interest Margin
(a)
Distribution by Income Group (mean)
1. High Income
2. Upper Middle Income
3. Lower Middle Income
4. Low Income
0 .02 .04 .06 .08
Net Interest Margin
Sample size: 156 countries
Time period: 2000-2004 Avg.
Source: Beck et. al. 2006. Financial Structure Database (The World Bank)
(b)
0.25
ZWE
0.20
0.15 VEN
Margin
Interest 0.10
Net
0.05
ETH
BGD
SYR
0.00
4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00
Log of GDP per capita (2000 USD)
Sample size: 145 countries
Time period: 2000-2004 Avg
Source: Index of Economic Freedom (Heritage Foundation, 2006)
51
Figure 4. Bank Loans per 1000 People
(a)
Distribution by Income Group (mean)
1. High Income
2. Upper Middle Income
3. Lower Middle Income
4. Low Income
0 100 200 300 400 500
Number of Loans per 1000 People
Sample size: 44 countries
Time period: 2000-2004 Avg
Source: Beck, Demirguc-Kunt and Martinez Peria. 2005. Reaching Out Dataset
(b)
800.00
POL GRC
ISR
600.00
le
opeP
0001reps 400.00
MYS
an
Lofo 200.00
er
VEN
mbuN SAU BEL
0.00
-200.00
5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00 10.00
Log of GDP per capita (2000 USD)
Sample size: 44 countries
Time period: 2000-2004 Avg
Source: Beck, Demirguc-Kunt and Martinez Peria. 2005. Reaching Out Dataset
52
Figure 5. Money Supply
(a)
Distribution by Income Group (mean)
1. High Income
2. Upper Middle Income
3. Lower Middle Income
4. Low Income
0 5 10
Log of M2 (mil. 2000 USD)
Sample size: 159 countries
Time period: 2000-2004 Avg.
Source: Beck et. al. 2006. Financial Structure Database (The World Bank)
(b)
1000000
100000
D)
US
2000.li 10000
(m
2
M
1000
100
< 1 bil. USD
1 - 10 bil. USD
> 10 bil. USD
Sample size: 159 countries
Time period: 2000-2004 Avg
Note: All values are in 2000 USD
Source: Beck et. al. 2006. Financial Structure Database (The World Bank)
53
Figure 6. Banking and Finance Freedom Index
(a)
Distribution by Income Group (mean)
1. High Income
2. Upper Middle Income
3. Lower Middle Income
4. Low Income
0 1 2 3 4
Freedom Score - Banking & Finance
Sample size: 163 countries
Time period: 2000-2004 Avg
Source: Index of Economic Freedom (Heritage Foundation, 2006)
(b)
5.00 UZB SYR IRN LBY
e
nc 4.00
naiF
&gin JPN
nkaB- 3.00
erocS CIV
om
ederF 2.00
ARM
1.00 CZE
4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00
Log of GDP per capita (2000 USD)
Sample size: 156 countries
Time period: 2000-2004 Avg
Source: Index of Economic Freedom (Heritage Foundation, 2006)
54