Why won't Odessa rise up on May 2nd? Part 1

Mikhail Saakashvili, the governor of the Odessa region, has declared that the Ukrainian state is collapsing and demanded that Petro Poroshenko deal with this by sending additional forces of the National Guard to Odessa. On the other hand, the representative of the traditionally anti-Saakashvili “Avakov clan”, the scandalously famous advisor to the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, Zoryan Shkiryak, stated that there are no grounds for deploying the National Guard to Odessa, also noting that the police forces of the “pearl by the sea” have been instructed to shoot to kill in the case of any disturbances over the May holidays. Despite Shkiryak’s opinion, the National Guard has already begun to be deployed to Odessa. It is already known that 300 fighters of the National Guard’s “Azov” special forces have arrived in the “southern capital” with equipment. But this, apparently, is far from everything.

It is obvious that Odessa is in an uneasy state and that there is a veritable mess in the city. But how is all of this connected with Anti-Maidan or pro-Russian activity? Apparently, it’s not! All the above is but infighting of the new government.

The visiting governor vs. the local “separatist” mayor

Mikhail Saakashvili’s entourage and the so-called Ukrainian activists have denounced the mayor of Odessa, Gennady Trukhanov, as a separatist on the grounds that he supposedly has a Russian passport. Yet no one is interested in Trukhanov’s denial of such charges or any investigation of him possessing Russian citizenship. Why the hate? The current mayor was voted in by the last elections which became a sort of “protest” vote for Odessans. Thus, the residents of the city expressed their real attitudes towards the forces of the Maidan, whose mayor was Saakashvili’s deputy, Alexander Borovik.

In the end, the “Eurokrainians” suffered a severe defeat in Odessa, for which it was impossible to forgive Trukhanov despite his relative loyalty to the central government.

In April, Trukhanov came under attack in both Kiev and Odessa. In the Ukrainian parliament, a resolution on mayoral re-elections began to be lobbied and was backed by the “Maidan” gathering outside which demanded the city head’s resignation. After two weeks of the pitched camp, one night a few dozen strong young men armed with chains and bats came and ruined the encampment. The patriotic community was agitated and called the attackers “Trukahnov’s separatists and mercenaries.” But then, the shock came to a sudden halt as it turned out that there were “Ukrainian patriots” among the “rioters.” Even fighters from the “heroic” “Dnepr-1” battalion were allegedly among them. It can’t be excluded that what happened was the handiwork of Kolomoysky, who, as is known, doesn’t love Saakashvili’s team.

The same night, one of Odessa’s banks was shot by a grenade-launcher. Immediately afterwards, unidentified persons set fire to a bus traveling from Odessa to Kiev. A massive brawl in Odessa’s famous Privoz market square broke out between Euromaidan fighters and… crayfish salesmen! The supporters of “European Ukraine” suddenly pre-occupied themselves with entrepreneur’s business permits. The latter refused to listen to these unidentified people and when they attempted to manhandle them, they tanned their hides. Unidentified persons also set fire to the car of Saakachvili’s assistant, Alexander Borovik.

Maidan and Anti-Maidan anticipating an explosion

Some prognoses of the situation in Odessa have focused on the resources of the Anti-Maidan, albeit in different forms and with different signs. But, paradoxically, they repeat what has been predicted by representatives of the Kiev government and Maidan supporters.

For example, the publication “Who’s who” promises the resumption of the Russian Spring in Odessa, Nikolaev, and Kherson:

“The southern regions of the country which have been “surrounded” by Poroshenko’s fatherly love and strict control on the verge of terror are running out of obedience and are nearing the point of self-determination and secession from the corrupt state…The resident of the southern regions are tired of bending their necks under the heel of the regime and enduring the bullying of foreign packs of hyenas endowed with extraordinary powers. Kiev has essentially made the independence of South Ukraine imminent even without the aid of the other side…According to journalists, Odessa is preparing itself for mass actions on the day of the tragedy of the House of Trade Unions. In Nikolaev, the leaders of the opposition movement are moving into action and preparing rallies and demonstrations for all the May holidays. In Kherson, supporters of the former head of the RGA are going out on the street and demanding an end to the blockade of Crimea…”

The author directly speaks of preparations for an uprising in South Ukraine. But what are his references? He refers to a number of leading Russian publications and (attention!) Ukrainian mass media sources which in their turn have quoted pro-Maidan officials, security forces, and so-called “activists.” An amazing source, is it not?

Let’s see what comes out of the government offices in Kiev in Odessa. Yuri Tandit, an advisor to the chairman of the SBU says:

“Security forces are keeping track of people who are planning provocations in the city for the anniversary of the tragic events. We are doing everything we can to make sure the city can live peacefully.”

The chief of the Alpha Center for Special Operations of the SBU, Alexander Ustimenko says:

“Last year we held three major waves of operations in Odessa, including against the so-called Bessarabia People’s Republic and so on and so forth. There were many arrests. Now in Odessa mass measures are also being prepared to nip any provocations in the bud. Let’s see the result of these operations on May 3rd. The security services are very active. Fighters of the Odessa administrations and more have been brought in..We are taking measures to help keep the situation under control. The enemy is taking unconventional steps - this is a hybrid war. But I am sure that we have enough ingenuity to promptly prevent any actions against the interests of state security.”

The advisor to the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine, Stanislav Rechinsky, says:

“There are separatist sentiments in Odessa and a taste for revenge for the events of May 2nd at the House of Trade Unions…The situation intends to heat up. Additionally, all train tickets to Odessa have been sold-out since the middle of April. This cannot be explained by a mere tourist flux. “Little green men” could also come via Transnistria with little obstacles under the guise of tourists.”

In an interview with Ukrainian media, Ukrainian People’s Deputy Dmitry Tymchuk, known for a multitude of fakes on the war in Donbass as the “talking helmet” who repeated “there are no causalities”, also suggested that there is a high probability of provocations in various cities of Southern Ukraine

Odessa expresses a “silent verdict”

In reality the only reliable fact that can be recorded is that political opponents of the Kiev regime are preparing mourning events for May 2nd. Graffiti has appeared on the walls of Odessa homes calling for the murderers of Odessa to be brought to justice. But more than anything people are being invited to events in honor of those killed, which will take place on May 2nd near the House of Trade Unions. In addition, unknown activists have begun to distribute leaflets comparing Ukraine to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic. The comparisons, of course, are not in favor of “independent” Ukraine.

Mildly speaking, drawing the conclusion that some kind of large-scale actions and protests are being prepared on these grounds is quite bold. Credible experts are predicting that large-scale commemorative events will be held on May 2nd, during the course of which provocations by Ukrainian Neo-Nazis cannot be excluded, but these are not expected to lead to drastic consequences.

Maria Bilchak says: “This year, on Mary 2nd, Odessa will once again display a silent verdict.”

The committing of arson in Odessa on May 2nd has been promised by supporters of the radical provocateur Dmitry Korchisnky, who coined the words “deserted Crimea.” The truth is, however, they are not going to burn anything but the mayor. This is yet another indication that the date of mourning will be unjustly used by politicians in their dirty games which have nothing to do with mourning ceremonies.

The possibility of launching a mass-scale uprising in Odessa on May 2nd, 2016 is extremely low. the Kiev government is already no longer what it was two years ago, and the situation today is fundamentally different. With its disastrous economic course, official Kiev controls the situation quite well in a political and security sense. The uprising in Donbass began in the midst of Kiev’s uncertainty as to which actions to take and thanks to the presence of an enormous border with Russia which was crossed on one side by volunteers and on the other by women and children fleeing bombardments. There are none of these conditions in Odessa. Moreover, Kiev’s secret services have placed hundreds of thousands of “informers” in all potentially dangerous groups which, while pretending to be in opposition, are leaking information on the opposition to the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the SBU.

As a result, the representatives of the backbone of the anti-fascist resistance in the south today: