Some in York County politics think this election season might be one to watch, for a few reasons:

>>Whether Republicans Chris Reilly and Susan Byrnes, both running for county commissioner, will mend their split in the primary and run together to try to put two from the GOP on the board;

>>How incumbent commissioner Steve Chronister — elected as a Republican but now running as an independent — will affect the vote if he makes the ballot; and

>>Whether enough Democrats could vote for a former member of their party, Republican Kathleen Prendergast, to make her a county judge.

"I'm excited to watch how this turns out, how voters gauge this," said state Rep. Seth Grove, R-Dover Township.

Let's take a look at the big scenarios:

Allegiances

Democratic incumbent Commissioner Doug Hoke and candidate Henry Nixon are likely to coordinate their campaigns, said Bob Kefauver, the chairman of the Democratic Party of York County. Both candidates said they haven't spoken since Tuesday's primary so cannot confirm any plans.

Should they coordinate, they might be more unified than the Republican contenders, though incumbent Reilly said he has called Byrnes several times and hopes they can talk about the possibility.

Joel Ogle, Byrnes' campaign manager, said that it is "too early to tell" whether they will coordinate campaigns, and he said he welcomes this short break after the primary campaign before gearing up for the general campaign.

"My intention is to work for the Republican team, it always has been," Reilly said. "This is politics. It's not a tea party but there shouldn't be any hard feelings. I took some lumps and I'm not holding any grudges."

During the primary, Reilly had aligned himself with Kelly Henshaw, who had sent out campaign mailers criticizing Byrnes for switching to the Democratic party to vote for Tom Wolf in the governor's race primary before switching back. It was, by all accounts, the most negative move of the primary, and Kefauver said he would be surprised to see any coordination between the two.

Rep. Stan Saylor, R-Windsor Township, acknowledged the split.

"I think there's definitely animosity that has developed because of the untruthful attacks during the campaign," said Saylor, who serves as Byrnes' campaign chairman. "The way it was handled was poor. You can't say you're a Christian and big Republican if you break Reagan's 11th Commandment" not to attack fellow Republicans.

Chronister, who will have to outpoll two of the four partisan nominees in November for a seat, said the mailer had a major effect on Byrnes' campaign in the outer municipalities of York County. He said it might have confused older voters who saw Reilly and Henshaw as the "Republican team" and thought Byrnes might be a Democrat.

She got the nomination, he said, based on support from the more populated municipalities surrounding the city where residents are generally more connected to internal partisan politics and saw past the mailer.

Ogle said it's difficult to know how the mailer affected voters since there was no polling done ahead of the primary, but said he didn't think it had a huge impact considering that Henshaw has run several unsuccessful campaigns and Byrnes is a first-time candidate.

"What concerns me is that if Byrnes and Reilly both win come November, then I don't see there being much coordination or camaraderie in the office," Kefauver said.

But Republican Party of York County chairman Alex Shorb disagrees.

"At the end of the day, both candidates recognize the goal is to win in November," he said. "Both Susan and Chris understand that they need to work together in the best interests of the county."

G. Terry Madonna, a pollster and professor of public affairs at Franklin & Marshall College in Lancaster, said that if animosity exists between the two Republican candidates, it could split the vote and work positively for the Democrats, but "the split would have to be that palpable and that great."

"That's asking a Republican to vote for a Democrat," he said of Republican-majority York County, "and that's asking a lot."

Reilly said he doesn't see Republican coordination making much of a difference either way, because the number of Republican voters so outnumbers Democratic voters that it's a "daunting obstacle for the Democrats to overcome."

"It's been nearly 40 years since there was a Democratically-controlled board," he said. "Democrats who receive the most votes usually lag five, six thousand votes behind the Republican candidates."

Still, he said he's "not going to take anything lightly. I expect a spirited race."

The independent factor

Chronister withdrew from the Republican primary in March following a legal challenge to some of his nominating signatures. He intends to run as an independent candidate if he can collect a minimum of 919 nominating signatures by Aug. 3. He said in March he planned for 9,000.

"You just don't know who he's going to take votes from," Grove said, adding that Chronister "throws a monkey into the entire political wrench."

Winning as an independent candidate is rare in Pennsylvania, Madonna said, but it's not unprecedented. Northumberland County has an independent county commissioner in Stephen Bridy, who did not return a call for comment on the challenges of running an independent campaign.

"I'm prepared to face off against any of them," Chronister said. "I think maybe what really kind of changes the political atmosphere is that there are three Republicans running. I'm independent, but people know me as a Republican."

Chronister has the name recognition and experience to be a viable candidate, but the nature of off-year elections will be a major obstacle to overcome, Madonna said.

That, he said, works out well for incumbents and the party candidates.

"It's hard to say how Steve will affect the race," Hoke said of Chronister, his cousin. He added that he thinks Chronister has done good work for the county in his three terms and remains a popular figure.

Nixon sees Chronister's candidacy in a different way.

"My personal opinion is if you can't get 242 clean signatures then that's pretty complacent about public service and I don't think people are interested," he said.

But Chronister said that he has a broad base of support as a moderate among Republicans, Democrats and independents alike.

Race for judge

In the judicial race, all three candidates are registered Republicans, but only two of them will be backed by the local Republican committee as the party's nominees, Shorb said.

Michael Flannelly (Submitted)

Michael Flannelly topped the Republican primary and was second in the Democratic primary. Chris Menges placed second on the Republican ballot and Kathleen Prendergast was first on the Democratic ballot. All three were cross-filed on both ballots.

Prendergast was a registered Democrat before switching to the Republican party in December 2010, according to Nikki Suchanic, the director of the county Voting & Elections office. But that status has no bearing on why the Republican Committee of York County endorsed the other candidates for the general election, Shorb said. Instead, the party's bylaws require them to endorse only their official, Republican ballot nominees.

Prendergast could not be reached for comment.

Because Prendergast is not backed by the Republican party, Grove said predicting the outcome of the race is "really easy."

Chris Menges (Submitted)

"I fully expect Mike Flannelly and Chris Menges to be elected judge," he said. "Unless something very strange happens and people decide to split their vote."

Kefauver said that Prendergast's former party registration and later switch could be like a "double-edged sword" when it comes to garnering support from Democrats, but he said that "for Democratic voters I think the decision is easy" and said Flannelly and Prendergast should win.

Kathleen Prendergast (Submitted)

"Mr. Menges, I think, is ethically challenged based on things he has said at candidate forums," Kefauver said, citing a specific time when Menges brought out his National Rifle Association membership card and his concealed firearm carry permit card as exhibits at a forum where he also promised not to legislate from the bench.

Menges said he disagrees with that assessment because any judge "takes his or her legal experience and his or her life experience" to the bench with them.

"I'm a rural person. I hunt, I hike, I'm an outdoorsman," he said. "It's the Second Amendment. There's nothing unethical about supporting constitutional rights."

Menges said judicial elections are "not supposed to be highly partisan and highly political" by their nature and said he expects the general election to be as positive as the primary campaign was.

Possible appointment

Shorb said Flannelly should be appointed to fill one of the two vacant judicial seats since he won both the Republican and Democratic primaries.

"From what I understand it would not be unprecedented with his decisive victory on both sides," Shorb said. "It would put a judge on the bench sooner ... versus waiting until January."

That decision would be made by Gov. Tom Wolf, and the appointment would have to be approved by the Pennsylvania Senate. Often the governor chooses an appointment based on a senator's suggestion, Saylor said.

Flannelly said that he will not run as though he's a front-runner candidate despite his strong primary performance. Instead, he will treat it the same way he did the primary: by putting himself out to the voters and emphasizing his experience.

State Sen. Scott Wagner, R-Spring Garden Township, could not be reached for comment on whether he would recommend the appointment.