Dan's Winds of War: 2004-26-04

Welcome! Our goal is to give you one power-packed briefing of insights, news and trends from the global War on Terror that leaves you stimulated, informed, and occasionally amused every Monday & Thursday. Today's "Winds of War" is brought to you by Dan Darling. of Regnum Crucis.

TOP TOPICS

Hezbollah operations chief Imad Mughniyeh, who is already responsible for the deaths of over 200 American troops in Lebanon in the 1980s, is inside Iraq and has reportedly trained Sadr's Mahdi Army.

Pakistan has granted an amnesty to the Waziri tribal leaders accused of sheltering al-Qaeda fighters (the latter of whom will apparently be let off in return for a pledge of good behavior) in an extremely disappointing turn of events. As part of the deal, 50 tribesmen, most of whom were captured during the recent military operation in Waziristan and in all likelihood killed Pakistani troops, will be released. Thankfully, we have no less a figure that MMA supremo Qazi Hussein Ahmed to tell that there are no al-Qaeda inside Pakistan.

On a much happier note, over 300 members of the Algerian GSPC have agreed to surrender to the government under a new amnesty deal in a devastating blow to al-Qaeda's main arm in North and West Africa.

Members of Sadr's Mahdi Army in Basra are accusing the UK of masterminding the recent suicide bombings there. Back in the real world, the Basra police have arrested 5 al-Qaeda members in connection with the attacks.

Tribal leaders in An Najaf don't seem too enthused by the prospect of being ruled by Sadr and are asking him to end his standoff with the US.

Mahdi Army fighters in Karbala have clashed with Polish troops the Shi'ite holy city. No word if any baseejis were killed this time around or not ...

The deadline for the residents of Fallujah to turn in their weapons has arrived, though junk appears to be all we're getting at this point in time.

Speaking of Fallujah, the truce appears to have led to some favorable results as the various Iraqi insurgent factions active in the city (the al-Tikriti Baathists, the former Republican Guard Baathists loyal to al-Douri, al-Qaeda, the Iraqi National Movement, and the al-Dulaimi tribesmen) turn on one another over what to do next. This comes as the US is announcing the beginning of patrols in the volatile city.

US administrator Paul Bremer is allowing low-level Baathists to return to positions previously occupied in both the military and the new Iraqi government.

Japan is heeping scorn on the returning hostages from Iraq. While the Times account does not mention the internet rumor that the hostages were in cahoots with their kidnappers, I think that this may also account for some of the Japanese public's reaction to their return.

IRAN REPORTS

Just one entry in the Iran Reports section today but it's well worth reading - an editorial by Constantine Menges outlining what Iran's objectives are in Iraq, who is doing what, and why. Menges also states that Iran doesn't plan on setting up Sadr as the Iraqi Khomeini - that dubious honor belongs to his mentor, Ayatollah Kazem Hussein al-Haeri.

THE WIDER WAR

50 Taliban have attacked an NGO in the Panjwai district of Kandahar province.

Sydney architect Faheem Lodhi has been accused of belonging to the same Australian terrorist cell as Willie Brigitte. Lodhi, a member of the Pakistan-based al-Qaeda affiliate Lashkar-e-Taiba, was targeting Australia's energy supplies with Brigitte and other members of his cell.

Yemen has arrested al-Nagar, who is described as being involved in the bombing of the U.S.S. Cole. Seeing how everyone remotely connected to al-Qaeda in Yemen seems to share this trait, that much makes sense ...

The Saudi al-Qaeda affiliate al-Haramain Brigades has claimed responsibility for the recent bombing in Riyadh.

A risk assessment agency in Hong Kong claims that the counterfeit market is tied to JI as well to other terrorist networks, yet another convergence between crime and terrorism.

Ansar al-Islam leader Mullah Krekar is writing a memoir from his safe haven in Norway.

5 Saudi al-Qaeda members have been killed in bin Laden's hometown of Jeddah. This comes as the general sentiment in the Magic Kingdom supports jihad in Iraq but is far less eager to engage in one back at home.

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Excerpt: Yesterday when I commented on evidence that Iran was winning the Iraq war, I hadn't seen this NBC report on "the numbver one killer of American troops in Iraq: roadside bombs."Military officials say there’s only one use for shaped charges...

While being eternally thankful that we're behind in medical technology in the U.S. and still use real live human beings as surgeons....

Imad Mughniqey's prescence in Iraq strikes me as big, albeit not unexpected news. Any other sources available available? Seems like there should be a number of news agencies all over this. He's been thought of as a pretty bad guy in the U.S. for more than 20 years, long before "terrorist" became a popular word in American jargon.

While being eternally thankful that we're behind in medical technology in the U.S. and still use real live human beings as surgeons....

Imad Mughniqey's prescence in Iraq strikes me as big, albeit not unexpected news. Any other sources available available? Seems like there should be a number of news agencies all over this. He's been thought of as a pretty bad guy in the U.S. for more than 20 years, long before "terrorist" became a popular word in American jargon.

They currently have troops acting on our behalf, so I suspect that this would be unwise, entirely apart from the logistical and political dilemmas involved in undertaking such an action.

"What in the world is Norway doing sheltering him in the first place?"

He has had refugee status in Norway since 1991, citing claims of persecution in the event that he returned to Iraq. The Norwegian government believes that he is connected to numerous attacks on coalition targets inside Iraq and has attempted to prosecute him to that effect, but have been hampered from doing so do to the fact that Krekar is a very charismatic individual who has been able to exploit popular Norwegian anti-Americanism as well as take advantage of the system through the machinations of his lawyer, Byrnar Meling.

"Do we hire a local hitman or send in our own?"

Krekar is currently being protected by a rather large group of Norwegian Muslim admirers and maintains a celebrity status in the Norwegian media, so I expect that such a course of action may be dismissed as unwise at this time.

"Boycott the book when it pops up on Amazon.com?"

We could always write nasty reviews as well ...

"Imad Mughniqey's prescence in Iraq strikes me as big, albeit not unexpected news. Any other sources available available? Seems like there should be a number of news agencies all over this. He's been thought of as a pretty bad guy in the U.S. for more than 20 years, long before 'terrorist' became a popular word in American jargon."

ICT has been speculating along with others such as myself, Amir Taheri, and Michael Ledeen that Sadr's little revolt had Mughniyeh's fingerprints all over it. The Telegraph story is the first hard confirmation of it that we've had, however.

Anyway, there I was, sitting cross-legged in the tent with my good friend and sometime drinking companion, Abu Mussab. As I looked beyond the phantasmagoric flickerings of our lone candle, I said to Abu, "You know, what the heck are we doing here anyway? I mean, we sit around, make some poisons, and nothing ever happens. You know what we need, my friend?"

"This leg is killing me! By God, I am suffocating! Yes, I, too, have wondered what we are doing with the poisions, Mullah Krekar. What do we need?" he asked.

"We need a cause. Remember the old days, when we were fighting the Godless Communists in Afghanistan?"

"Yes, Mullah Krekar. Those were the days. But what could our cause be? Sure, we hate the Zionist entity and the Americans, but since the Americans are not occupying a Muslim country, our recruiting is way down. Our brothers around the world are having the same problem."

Iran's covert actions in Iraq
By Constantine C. Menges
Published April 25, 2004

On April 4, 2004, Sheik Muqtada al-Sadr, a pro-Iranian Iraqi cleric, called on his followers to "terrorize your enemy," meaning the Americans and all those Iraqis cooperating to bring about a constitutional government.

This led tens of thousands of the cleric's armed and unarmed followers to attack U.S. and Coalition forces in four Iraqi cities. This was a preview of the violence and turmoil Iranian covert action could inflict in the coming months.

This threat is the current September 11, because the administration has not yet "connected the dots" revealing Iran's secret but discernible activities.

Following removal of Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq, the Iranian clerical dictatorship began a covert effort to set up an allied Shi'ite Islamist extremist regime in 60 percent Shi'ite Iraq. Iran has prepared this for many years and recruited political, military and covert agent assets among the hundreds of thousands of Iraqi Shi'ites who fled Iraq to live in Iran.

The Iranian dictatorship is acting to bring about a "second Iran" in Iraq in five ways:

(1) Those Iraqi Shi'ite clerics who agree with the heretical Khomeini view that the clergy should rule society in all aspects are used by Iran to build a power base from their mosques and associated social services. Iran views as the future religious leader of Iraq Ayatollah Al Haeri, an Iraqi cleric who has lived in Iran for the last 30 years and who, when Baghdad was liberated last year, issued an edict telling Iraqi clergy not to cooperate with the United States.

(2) Iran established the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq as a political movement that could win elections or take power town by town with the help of covert Iranian funds and propaganda. This organization also has an Iranian-trained and -armed paramilitary group of about 30,000. Both the political and the armed wings began moving from Iran into Iraq in March 2003. Iran also funds the Dawa Party. Leaders of both these Iran-linked parties are on the Iraqi Governing Council.

(3) Iran is working covertly with Iraqi extremist Sheik al-Sadr to use political and coercive means, including murder, to intimidate and take over Iraq's Shi'ite leadership. The murders of several prominent Shi'ite clerical leaders who favored democracy and cooperation with the coalition repeats Iran's covert actions since December 2001 in post-Taliban Afghanistan. There, a number of moderate Muslim clerics and political leaders were killed. It was Sheik al Sadr who issued the call to violence in Iraq on April 4, 2004. The next day, the coalition announced an Iraqi judge had issued an arrest warrant for Sheik al Sadr for the April 2003 murder of the respected moderate cleric, Ayatollah Al Kohei.

(4) Hezbollah, the Iranian-supported and often -directed terrorist organization has moved hundreds of cadres into Iraq as reported since last November. They along with Hamas, another Iranian-supported terrorist organization, have opened offices in Iraq and are recruiting Iraqis to be the foot soldiers and suicide killers in the massive terrorist attacks planned against U.S. and coalition forces. Iran is most likely to order these to begin fully after the planned July 1, 2004, turnover of civil authority to the Iraqis. It also is quite likely Iran will use its links with Hezbollah and al Qaeda to facilitate major terrorist attacks inside the United States this summer and fall to try to force the U.S. out of Iraq and increase the odds of an electoral defeat of President Bush.

(5) Iran has spent heavily seeking to dominate radio and television broadcasting in Iraq. A survey by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty found Iran is the source of 33 of 59 AM broadcasts and of 41 of 63 AM/FM/TV broadcasts heard in Iraq. In comparison, the U.S.-supported Iraq Media Network has one television station, two radio stations and one newspaper.

The Bush administration must immediately counter Iran's covert assets and planned actions or risk major setbacks to its goals in Iraq. Indeed, if Iran brings about an anti-U.S., pro-Iranian Shi'ite extremist regime in Iraq, the risks to the United States and its allies from terrorism and weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) would dramatically increase. And it would defeat the Bush "forward strategy for freedom" in the entire Middle East.

A first step is recognizing, analyzing and understanding the intent of Iran and its Iraqi allies and what they have done to date. Next, there is an urgent need to work with moderate Shi'ite leaders to build pro-democratic political parties and a broad pro-democratic political coalition that can withstand and overcome the pressures, coercion and terrorism of the pro-Iranian Shi'ite groups. This means revising the currently self-defeating and much-too-limited efforts to aid genuinely democratic Shi'ite and other political parties and groups.

The pro-democracy Iraqi media also needs to be enlarged, and, as a corollary, the pro-extremist, Iranian-funded media needs to be restricted. This is an inescapable element of the early stages of a post-dictatorship transition where anti-democratic groups and media have sources of support far greater than those now available to moderates.

It also is necessary to quickly arrest all extremist leaders advocating violence and disarm their thousands of armed followers. It is may be necessary to detain many of these armed extremists for some time, to assure they are cannot join anti-U.S. terrorist operations.

Such detention should be humane. Efforts should be made to educate these misguided people about the values of political democracy and tolerance and to counter lies they have been told by extremist leaders for the last year.

The best defense against Iranian destabilization of Iraq is helping Iran's people to politically liberate themselves from their dictatorship. While the Iranian regime has a 25-year record of effective and brutal terrorism and secret action abroad, it is weak, fragile and vulnerable at home.

Polls and a series of partially open elections since 1997 reveal more than 75 percent of Iranians completely reject the extremist Shi'ite clerical regime that is perceived as very corrupt and a total economic failure. The people know the dictatorship has spent much of Iran's oil wealth supporting terrorism, Islamic extremism and on WMDs and ballistic missiles.

Ironically, while the United States may face difficulty fending off covert Iranian political action in Iraq, it has the symbolic credibility of its democratic institutions and the knowledge and experience to encourage the Iranian people to free themselves.

President Bush has spoken eloquently and often about the Iranian people's right to freedom. Now he needs to instruct his State Department to cease all its open and secret "dialogue and engagement" activities with the clerical regime. These legitimatize the dictatorship and discourage those in Iran who might otherwise act to bring about a democratic future.

Taking these actions now in Iraq and encouraging the Iranian people to liberate themselves this summer could result in two democracies. Otherwise, there is grave risk the removal of Iraq's Saddam Hussein will ultimately result in two Irans -- two Shi'ite extremist regimes in the region.

Constantine C. Menges, a senior fellow with the Hudson Institute, is a former presidential special assistant for national security affairs and a former Central Intelligence Agency officer. He has analyzed events in Iraq and Iran since 1980.

Yes, Sadr is a very very bad man but it's also equally true that we can't go after him openly. Our best chance of victory is to fund and arm a group of tribesmen in large enough numbers to liberate Najaf and subdue Sadr. It's patently obvious that we can't do so directly ourselves.

Since we are off topic already, I thought I would share this story that should get a few chuckles.
Thought a little humor might be useful.

**************************************************
A woman in a hot air balloon realized she was lost. She lowered altitude and
spotted a man in a boat below. She shouted to him, "Excuse me, can you help me? I promised a friend I would meet him an hour ago, but I don't know where I am."

The man consulted his portable GPS and replied, "You're in a hot air balloon
approximately 30 feet above a ground elevation of 2346 feet above sea level.
You are 31 degrees, 14.97 minutes north latitude and 100 degrees, 49.09
minutes west longitude."

She rolled her eyes and said, "You must be a Republican."

"I am", replied the man. "How did you know?"

"Well," answered the balloonist, "everything you told me is technically
correct, but I have no idea what to make of your information, and I'm still
lost. Frankly, you've not been much help to me."

The man smiled and responded, "You must be a Democrat."

"I am," replied the balloonist, "How did you know?"

"Well," said the man, "you don't know where you are or where you're going.
You've risen to where you are due to a large quantity of hot air. You made
a promise that you have no idea how to keep, and you expect ME to solve your problem. You're in EXACTLY the same position you were in before we met, but somehow, now it's MY fault."

The following is an actual question given on a
University of Washington chemistry mid-term. The
answer by one student was so "profound" that the
professor shared it with colleagues, via the Internet,
which is, of course, why we now have the pleasure of
enjoying it as well.

Bonus Question: Is Hell exothermic (gives off heat) or
endothermic absorbs heat)? Most of the students wrote
proofs of their beliefs using Boyle's Law (gas cools
when it expands and heats when it is compressed) or
some variant.

One student, however, wrote the following:

"First, we need to know how the mass of Hell is
changing in time. So we need to know the rate at which
souls are moving into Hell and the rate at which they
are leaving. I think that we can safely assume that
once a soul gets to Hell, it will not leave.

Therefore,
no souls are leaving. As for how many souls are
entering Hell, let's look at the different religions
that exist in the world today. Most of these religions
state that if you are not a member of their religion,
you will go to Hell. Since there is more than one of
these religions and since people do not belong to more
than one religion, we can project that all souls go to Hell.

With birth and death rates as they are, we can expect
the number of souls in Hell to increase exponentially.
Now, we look at the rate of change of the volume in
Hell because Boyle's Law states that in order for the
temperature and pressure in Hell to stay the same, the
volume of Hell has to expand proportionately as souls
are added.

This gives two possibilities:
1) If Hell is expanding at a slower rate than the rate
at which souls enter Hell, then the temperature and
pressure in Hell will increase until all Hell breaks
loose.

2) If Hell is expanding at a rate faster than the
increase of souls in Hell, then the temperature and
pressure will drop until Hell freezes over..

So which is it?

If we accept the postulate given to me by Teresa
during my Freshman year that, "...it will be a cold
day in Hell before I sleep with you," and take into
account the fact that I still have not succeeded in
having an affair with her, then #2 above cannot be
true, and thus I am sure that Hell is exothermic and
will not freeze over."

Apparently, they shot the last kufr branding consultant who raised concerns about the name....

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