Wrestlemania is the WWE’s marquee event of the year but the storylines that make it so compelling are often set in motion at the Royal Rumble scheduled for January 29, 2017 in San Antonio, Texas. The 30 year old PPV event is headlined by a 30 man, timed interval battle royal with the winner receiving a WWE World Heavyweight Championship shot at Wrestlemania. The WWE creative team has managed to make the shopworn battle royal–historically one of the most useless types of wrestling match–into the focal point of one of the biggest PPV events of the year.

Setting odds for pro wrestling is a challenge because–spoiler alert–the matches and storylines are ‘worked’ meaning that their outcome has been pre-determined. In a typical sporting event we look for value by analyzing the strengths and weaknesses of each team and look for line value. Games are chaotic affairs with countless variables that can determine the outcome. In pro wrestling the outcome is predetermined to advance a storyline. Ideally, this will engage the interest of fans who will buy tickets and PPVs. The storylines may be set weeks or even months in advance but they’re subject to last minute change due to injury and other factors. ‘Back in the day’ this was the responsibility of a ‘booker’–usually a wrestler or former wrestler. The WWE’s storylines are the product of a creative committee over which several people have significant influence and ‘veto power’–the biggest of these being Vince McMahon, Stephanie McMahon and her husband Paul Michael Levesque (better known to the world as ‘Triple H’). There are also 15 to 20 other members who also serve at the behest of the McMahon family.

In order to set odds or handicap professional wrestling you need to focus on the storylines and determine how this event and the matches on the card fit into the ‘big picture’. And even if you’re right Vince McMahon can change everything at the last minute. Knowing who is injured, who is on the ‘outs’ with the McMahon family or who has other issues also helps. Another important element is the contractual status of the individual wrestlers.

Undercard Matches

Proposition Specials

Will Shinsuke Nakamura be a contestant in the Royal Rumble?
Yes: 5/7
No: 6/5

Will Samoa Joe be a contestant in the Royal Rumble?
Yes: 10/17
No: 3/2

Will Kenny Omega appear on the show in an official capacity?
Yes: 5/1
No: 1/7

Will Kenny Omega be a contestant in the Royal Rumble?
Yes: 13/2
No: 4/47

Will Shaun Michaels be a contestant in the Royal Rumble?
Yes: 6/1
No: 1/12

Will there be a female contestant in the Royal Rumble?
Yes: 6/1
No: 1/9

Will any competitor that appeared on the New Japan Pro Wrestling ‘Wrestle Kingdom 11’ show on 1/4/17 appear on the Royal Rumble PPV in an official capacity?
Yes: 5/1
No: 1/7

Will the Kazuchika Okada/Kenny Omega main event from the New Japan Pro Wrestling ‘Wrestle Kingdom 11’ show on 1/4/17 be mentioned by the WWE announce team during the PPV?
Yes: 7/2
No: 1/5

Will any current UFC roster member appear on the show in an official capacity?
Yes: 6/1
No: 1/9

Will the three Royal Rumble undercard matches (Styles/Cena, Owens/Reigns, Charlotte/Bayley) all be determined via pinfall?
Yes: 2/5
No: 2/1

Will any of the three Royal Rumble undercard matches (Styles/Cena, Owens/Reigns, Charlotte/Bayley) end via disqualification?
Yes: 9/4
No: 2/7

Will any of the three Royal Rumble undercard matches (Styles/Cena, Owens/Reigns, Charlotte/Bayley) end via double count out?
Yes: 6/1
No: 1/9

Will any member of the McMahon family (Vince, Shane, Linda, Stephanie) be a contestant in the Royal Rumble?
Yes: 7/2
No: 1/5

Rules: For the ‘Royal Rumble’ all to win and elimination bets are action regardless of the participation of a wrestler. For the bets contingent on the undercard results any change in the listed matches will eliminate that match from the bet. For example, if one of the three matches is cancelled for the ‘Will the three undercard matches be determined by pinfall’ the bet will be graded on the result of the remaining matches. Appearing on the PPV ‘in an official capacity’ is defined as participating as in-ring talent, on the broadcast team, in an interview, etc. The ‘John Cena turning heel’ prop will only be graded ‘Yes’ if he makes a clear and demonstrable ‘heel turn’ based on his actions before, in, or during his match or in a promo during the PPV. Anything else including an ‘edgy’ promo like he cut on the January 3 ‘SmackDown Live’ broadcast will be graded ‘No’.

About the Author: Jim Murphy

For more than 25 years, Jim Murphy has written extensively on sports betting as well as handicapping theory and practice. Jim Murphy has been quoted in media from the Wall Street Journal to REASON Magazine. Murphy worked as a radio and podcasting host broadcasting to an international audience that depended on his expertise and advice. Murphy is an odds making consultant for sports and 'non-sport novelty bets' focused on the entertainment business, politics, technology, financial markets and more.