Measuring the impact of Structural and Cohesion Funds using regression discontinuity design in EU27 in the period 1994-2011 - Work package 14C Ex post evaluation of Cohesion Policy programmes 2007-2013, focusing on ERDF and the Cohesion Fund

Measuring the impact of Structural and Cohesion Funds using regression discontinuity design in EU27 in the period 1994-2011 - Work package 14C Ex post evaluation of Cohesion Policy programmes 2007-2013, focusing on ERDF and the Cohesion Fund

This ex post evaluation aims to assess the effects of Cohesion policy (CP) on economic growth in the EU-27 regions that have benefited – to various extents – from financial assistance in the programming periods 1994-99, 2000-06 and 2007-13.

The study explores how the average effect of CP influences regional GDP growth. The proposed approach is based on a counterfactual causal analysis using a new extension of the Regression Discontinuity Design, that allows us to estimate the non-linear relationship between the intensity of EU regional transfers and per-capita regional growth. We use a new, reliable and comprehensive dataset, stemming from several sources, fully coherent with the CP. The main result is that the positive and statistically significant impact of CP on regional growth is confirmed by the analysis.