There are only two seats in the ACT and both are comfortably held by the Labor Party. The southern electorate of Canberra (ALP 9.4%) is held by Annette Ellis, and northern Fraser (ALP 12.7%) by frontbencher Bob McMullin.

An election is due for the ACT Legislative Assembly on 16 October 2004, in all likelihood coinciding with the federal campaign. If the Federal election were called for the same date, the ACT election would be deferred to 4 December.

Given Labor holds the two House of Representatives so safely, there is often more interest in the Senate contest. In the past, the Liberal vote has fallen below the 33.3% required to win a Senate seat, giving the Democrats a chance of winning a seat. Any chance of a minor party victory in the Senate requires the Liberal vote to fall below 33.3%, and the minor party vote to be higher than the excess of Labor's vote above 33.3%. To date, no minor party has managed to achieve both of these goals.

The Greens have a high profile candidate contesting the Senate election in Kerrie Tucker, who will be retiring from her seat in the Legislative Assembly. However, while in the past Democrats have taken vote off the Liberal Party, it seems less likely that the Greens could do the same. Unless the Greens can draw enough support to push the Liberal vote below 33.3%, Tucker stands little chance of being elected.

Past Elections Results

Primary Vote %

2PP %

Seats Won

Election

ALP

LIB

DEM

GRN

ONP

OTH

ALP

ALP

LIB

Total

1975

48.3

47.3

..

..

..

4.1

49.3

1

1

2

1977

50.2

41.9

7.4

..

..

0.5

54.3

1

1

2

1980

54.9

38.3

5.6

..

..

1.3

58.6

2

..

2

1983

63.9

32.0

..

..

..

4.1

65.5

2

..

2

1984

53.3

32.2

7.6

..

..

6.9

62.0

2

..

2

1987

53.9

30.3

6.8

..

..

9.0

63.2

2

..

2

1990

44.9

34.8

14.4

3.8

..

2.1

58.5

2

..

2

1993

53.3

34.2

5.8

1.7

..

5.0

61.2

2

..

2

1996

47.9

40.9

..

8.7

..

2.5

55.5

3

..

3

1998

50.6

30.5

7.4

4.2

5.1

2.2

62.4

2

..

2

2001

47.0

32.4

8.0

7.1

2.8

2.8

61.1

2

..

2

Note that in March 1995, the Liberal Party won the ACT seat of Canberra at a by-election. However, at the March 1996 Federal election, the Labor Party won the three seats contested in the ACT.