I think he gets to 500 but that doesn't get him in the HOF. He's only been to one All-Star game and has no major awards to his name. I think it is going to take some post-season heroics or closer to 600 HR for him to have a chance.

He would have been a multiple all-star award winner if he played in NY, Boston or LA though.... is that really good criteria? If Dunn played in NY and was voted as a starter his entire career with inflated RBI numbers but otherwise the same stats would he be HOF?

jfg wrote:He would have been a multiple all-star award winner if he played in NY, Boston or LA though.... is that really good criteria? If Dunn played in NY and was voted as a starter his entire career with inflated RBI numbers but otherwise the same stats would he be HOF?

This is a good point because I'd almost bet the answer was yes if he played in a major market.

jfg wrote:He would have been a multiple all-star award winner if he played in NY, Boston or LA though.... is that really good criteria? If Dunn played in NY and was voted as a starter his entire career with inflated RBI numbers but otherwise the same stats would he be HOF?

Is that really good criteria? No.Will that be the criteria the HOF voters will judge him by? Yes

So forget about the voters... if Adam Dunn hits 500 HR's should he get in? Accolades mean nothing to me because they're arbitrary, all that matters is the stats and he might be the first 500 HR hitter that you can say doesn't belong. Everybody on the list right now is above virtual clinch status on the HOF monitor. Raffy is way above it and Thome is 15 points above it. Dunn might end up being the Bert Blyleven of his generation.

jfg wrote:So forget about the voters... if Adam Dunn hits 500 HR's should he get in? Accolades mean nothing to me because they're arbitrary, all that matters is the stats and he might be the first 500 HR hitter that you can say doesn't belong. Everybody on the list right now is above virtual clinch status on the HOF monitor. Raffy is way above it and Thome is 15 points above it. Dunn might end up being the Bert Blyleven of his generation.

I would say yes, he should. He's consistently been a tremendous power hitter and has always maintained an outstanding OBP. He's hit 40+ homers five times in in his career and he can certainly reach that mark again.

As for "dominance," he did hit 46 homers in '04 with a .956 OPS. Pretty dominant in my opinion.

For being a one-dimensional player, he also stole 19 bases in his first full season ('02)! That was quite startling.

I don't think the amount of dimensions a player excels in should be a consideration, but rather the entire net value of that player. The question is: is his one dimension (an on base and slugging machine) enough to make up for his lack of defense? I guess that could be answered by looking at some of the respected valuation stats that are going around - win shares, or whatever metrics are being used these days, haven't looked into it for a while. If he keeps going at a 900 OPS clip for another 8 years or so it would be hard to say he done'st deserve the hall of fame. Whether they actually induct him is another matter, and one that I'm not particularly interested in.

Pogotheostrich wrote:I think he gets to 500 but that doesn't get him in the HOF. He's only been to one All-Star game and has no major awards to his name. I think it is going to take some post-season heroics or closer to 600 HR for him to have a chance.

I agree with this.

He will hit 500, and he will not get in. He is one-dimensional, he has never been a "dominant player," never been one of the best players in the game, never been a winner.

I don't think it matters if the teams he plays on wins any games at all. He could be on the next 5 world series winners and it shouldn't count toward a Hall of Fame induction. Wins are a team stat, not an individual stat.