The departure of Mrs. Clinton and her Asia team makes many in Japan nervous. That’s because they have displayed strong focus on Asia and efforts to engage China at a time of growing friction between an increasingly powerful China and its neighbors.

Another subject of speculation is the successor to Ambassador John Roos, who spearheaded Washington’s efforts to aid Japan after its natural and nuclear disasters last year. Neither Mr. Campbell nor Mr. Roos has formally announced his intention to step down, but both have hinted at their departure at the end of Mr. Obama’s first term, according to U.S. and Japanese experts.

“The policy may not change but the players will change. It would be a bit of tough period for Japan,” Akihisa Nagashima, vice minister of defense, told JRT in a phone interview. “The key is if Japan can show our determination and send messages on key issues such as the TPP between now and January (the presidential inauguration.) If not, we’d be simply be left behind.” Mr. Nagashima was referring to the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a regional free trade agreement Tokyo aims to join despite considerable domestic opposition. Mr. Nagashima spent many years studying and working in Washington D.C., and is one of the main points of contact between the ruling Democratic Party of Japan and the U.S. government.

“Hillary Clinton was very personally active on Asia and very patient with and committed to Japan,” says Michael Green, Senior Vice President for Asia and Japan Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. Mr. Campbell, according to Mr. Green, contributed to U.S.-Japan ties by doing ”the most basic things, like having an open door.” Mr. Campbell, said Mr. Green, has been “willing to sit down and listen, and work through issues with Japan.”

Who might succeed Mr. Campbell would probably hinge on who would succeed Mrs. Clinton. Two often-mentioned candidates for Secretary of State: Susan Rice, ambassador to the United Nations, and John Kerry, the senior senator from Massachusetts. If Mr. Kerry gets the job, he would likely tap the staff of the Senate, perhaps choosing someone like Michael Schiffer, former deputy assistant secretary of defense for Asia, or Frank Jannuzi, a long-time Asia hand on the Senate staff who now works at Amnesty International.

Ms. Rice might turn to experts like Susan Shirk, an Asia expert and professor at the University California, San Diego.

For the ambassador’s job, one name several experts and government officials have mentioned is Joseph Nye, a Harvard professor and former assistant secretary of defense.

Mr. Nye, who served under two Democratic presidents — Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton — was among the four former U.S. national security officials from both parties who recently visited Japan and China in an effort to diffuse the bilateral tensions over the disputed islands.

Still, the ambassadorship could go to someone who helped raise funds for Mr. Obama during a hugely costly election. Indeed, Mr. Nye was viewed as a top contender for the Tokyo job after Mr. Obama’s first election. But instead, it went to Mr. Roos, an Obama contributor.

Mr. Roos arrived in Tokyo in 2009 with little prior experience on Japan. Still, he has become a popular figure as the cheerleader of the TOMODACHI initiative, a Tohoku disaster relief program that has become a broader bilateral exchange program.

In fact, many in Japan had expressed concerns about the current Asia team when they were first chosen at the beginning of Mr. Obama’s first term. The conventional wisdom in Tokyo has long been that Republicans are more friendly to Japan than Democrats. Many Japanese also worried that Mrs. Clinton, though well-known, and Mr. Roos, virtually unknown, had too little experience in dealing with Asia and Japan. Those worries had vanished as the U.S.-Japan ties endured through rough patches characterized by a major changes in Japanese politics and last year’s disasters in Tohoku.

“I think the foundation of this relationship is far deeper than whatever face is on the political party position,” says Sheila Smith, senior fellow for Japan studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.

Comments (5 of 6)

assembling a "Japan team"? Is Japan that important? Japan is a country in which the U.S. has a legal right to occupy as a matter of course since WWII until Japan loses its potential to be an aggressor. This is the term the Allied set up for Japan's surrender, to which Japan has unconditionally agreed.

2:18 am November 10, 2012

To Tell the very Truth wrote:

They are ALL in the hand of the Rockfellers and their friends. Have a look to the web, it's not a secret: Obama, Clinton and McCain are all linked to the CFR created by Rockfeller. Democrats, Republicans, or just the two faces of the same coin ! The ones who believe all these guys really take serious decisions by themselves are naives, at least.

5:25 am November 9, 2012

Cohen wrote:

Hillary is controlled by the right wing Neo-cons. She is more hawkish than many Republicans.

4:06 am November 9, 2012

dinicea wrote:

we was goog

6:07 am November 8, 2012

Rudy Sento wrote:

You guys should drop such a myopic vision in this whole western Pacific mess. Put on glasses, and see farther 20 to 50 years ahead, where his nation is heading on.

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