As of 640 PM Thursday...
Dropped the overnight lows in the mountains a couple degrees, but
otherwise, no significant changes to the forecast package this
evening.
As of 200 PM Thursday...
Brief sfc high pressure remains in control this evening with VFR
conditions. Models suggest strong cold advection tonight. This,
together with radiational cooling where it clears will produce
temperatures from the low 20s lowlands to the single digits for
elevations higher than 3000 feet.
Winds turn northwest to set up upslope snow showers mainly over
elevations greater than 3kft.
Used a blend of all models for temperatures through the period.

-- End Changed Discussion --

&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 235 PM Thursday...
Flurries and snow showers should be confined to the northern
mountains Friday night with a lingering strato/stratocu deck
holding firm elsewhere. This should keep overnight lows up a bit
from what MOS guidance is suggesting...though still quite cold.
The stratocu will erode from southwest to northeast on Saturday
with sunshine becoming more prevalent across the region. Temps
will still be cold though, with only a slight improvement from
Friday.
Attention then turns to Sunday, where models are beginning to
converge on a synoptic solution regarding the next system. A
surface low will eject out of the Southern Plains Sunday with a
developing warm front extending pretty far to the northeast, into
the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, an upper levelimpulse zipping through
the increasing zonal flow will help to increase the isentropic
lift across the Ohio Valley in proximity to the warm front. Where
this warm front sets up will ultimately determine the extent of
wintry precip over the area. There is some consensus on this
staying just north of the area, perhaps clipping portions of
southeast Ohio and northern West Virginia zones with some light
snow later Sunday before turning to rain overnight into Monday. As
such have some minor accumulations coded up for those locales.
This is still a low confidence forecast despite an emerging
consensus, primarily due to how close the warm front will be and
the extent of WAA from the south.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 250 PM Thursday...
The extended was primarily populated with the Superblend given the
volatility amongst the global models and ensembles. Overall, a
reload of arctic air for the latter half of the work week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...