Our View: If you think Illinois' pension mess is ugly, just wait

Rep. John Cabello may be right about lawmakers’ resolve to fix the worst unfunded pension liability in the country. He would agree, however, that being right on this is not a good thing.

Journal Standard

Writer

Posted May. 8, 2013 at 12:01 AM
Updated May 8, 2013 at 7:22 AM

Posted May. 8, 2013 at 12:01 AM
Updated May 8, 2013 at 7:22 AM

Rep. John Cabello may be right about lawmakers’ resolve to fix the worst unfunded pension liability in the country.

He would agree, however, that being right on this is not a good thing.

Cabello, a Machesney Park Republican, thinks lawmakers can resolve the pension mess if all stakeholders are allowed input and robust debate follows. He doesn’t see that happening.

What he can foresee is legislative leaders messing around with a pension fix and passing legislation that will not pass constitutional muster.

That would put the issue in the courts, where a judge could rule that Illinois must fund its pensions and that the state has to pay up.

Oh, and raise taxes so the state has the money to do just that.

“I don’t think they want a solution. I think they want the pension system to go bankrupt,” Cabello said, referring to legislative leaders. It won’t matter to the judge that the state is broke and can’t pay retirees.

“The judge is going to come in and tell the state of Illinois that you’re raising taxes X amount of dollars and the politicians are going to say, ‘I didn’t raise your taxes, the judge did.’ That solves the problem.”

That’s not an inconceivable scenario.

There are individual lawmakers who are conscientious and represent their constituents well, but the Illinois General Assembly as a group is unlikely to be featured in a future volume of “Profiles in Courage.”

Cabello was one of the “no” votes on a Mike Madigan pension bill that passed the House last week. Cabello thinks the bill is unconstitutional.

Senate President John Cullerton has announced his own plan, which has some union support, that he hopes to get passed as early as today. But Cullerton’s plan would not save as much money as Madigan’s — and saving money so the state can meet its obligations is what pension reform is all about.

Cullerton’s proposal is projected to save $46 billion over 30 years. Madigan’s plan would save $140 billion over the same period. Big difference.

Also, Cullerton’s plan would get the system to 90 percent funded. Madigan’s plan goes for 100 percent. Today, it’s about 45 percent.

Cullerton thinks his plan would win any court challenge. Madigan thinks the same of his plan.

The Illinois Retired Teachers Association doesn’t think so and has threatened to sue. The group of about 35,000 former public school educators doesn’t like Cullerton’s plan and likes Madigan’s plan even less.

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A court battle seems to be inevitable.

Madigan’s plan has been proclaimed the better fix although such groups as the Illinois Policy Institute would like to see the state get out of the pension business altogether and move employees into a 401(k)-style system.

How the debate plays out over the next few weeks is anyone’s guess. The General Assembly is supposed to wrap up its business by the end of the month, although lawmakers could go into overtime — special sessions — if they deem what they have to do important enough.

Making laws is a messy process, and the pension debate, which has been going on for about a decade, probably is one of the messiest we’ve seen.

Meanwhile, lawmakers are getting ready to make budget cuts that none of us wants to see. Pension costs are growing and leaving less money for everything else.

We have dueling pension proposals and retirees getting ready to sue. The next few weeks are going to be ugly.