CHANGES TO PUBLICATION AND AUSSTATS TABLES FOR INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN GOODS AND SERVICES, AUSTRALIA

As advised in the September 2005 issue of International Trade in Goods and Services, Australia (cat. no. 5368.0), the monthly goods series will be seasonally adjusted at a more detailed level than previously. This article describes the changes being introduced and provides examples of the new publication tables, and the associated AusStats tables, that will present the more detailed seasonally adjusted series. The article also describes some minor changes being made to a number of tables presenting services data.

ALIGNING THE SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT OF MONTHLY AND QUARTERLY GOODS SERIES

Currently, monthly goods series in International Trade in Goods and Services, Australia (cat. no. 5368.0) are only seasonally adjusted at broad levels, while quarterly goods series are seasonally adjusted at a more detailed level in Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, Australia (cat. no. 5302.0). From the October 2005 issue of International Trade in Goods and Services, Australia, the monthly goods series will be seasonally adjusted at the same level as the quarterly series, except that other non-rural credits will not be split between beverages, sugar and other in the monthly series.

This change is being introduced for two reasons.

First, the availability of more detailed seasonally adjusted series will help users understand the factors driving the seasonally adjusted series. The commentary presented in the publication will now place greater emphasis on the seasonally adjusted series.

Second, seasonally adjusting the series at a similar level may improve the alignment between the monthly and quarterly series. Analysis of data for the last 15 years shows that introducing the more detailed monthly seasonal adjustment will, on average, improve the monthly and quarterly alignment of the balance on goods and services, rural goods credits and each of the goods debits series (consumption, capital and intermediate and other goods). However, the monthly and quarterly alignment has not, on average, improved for non-rural and other goods credits.

Now that the methodology for component seasonal adjustment of the monthly and quarterly series are basically aligned, some further investigations will be undertaken into the seasonal adjustment process with particular emphasis on the treatment of trading day influences in each of the series and consistent application of prior corrections. It is anticipated that these investigations will result in further alignment between the monthly and quarterly series. The results of these investigations will be advised in a future issue of the monthly or quarterly publication.

IMPACT OF THE MORE DETAILED MONTHLY SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT OF GOODS

Undertaking seasonal adjustment of the monthly series at a more detailed level has resulted in two additional series being identified as not having identifiable seasonal patterns. These series are "civil aircraft" credits and "fuels and lubricants" credits.

Table 1 from the September 2005 issue of International Trade in Goods and Services, Australia has been reproduced using the original estimates as at September so that users can see the impact on the seasonally adjusted and trend estimates of the more detailed seasonal adjustment.

CHANGES TO PUBLICATION AND AUSSTATS TABLES AS A RESULT THE MORE DETAILED MONTHLY SEASONAL ADJUSTMENT OF GOODS

The change to detailed monthly seasonal adjustment will result in the October issue of International Trade in Goods and Services, Australia containing four additional tables, consequential table renumbering, some re-formatting of table presentations, and corresponding changes to AusStats table presentations.

Tables 3 and 4 present original estimates for goods credits and debits. In these tables the "other goods" category has been expanded to present the four subcategories also being presented in the new seasonally adjusted and trend tables.

AusStats table 20 (will be table 90) presents monthly forward seasonal adjustment factors and has been expanded to include the factors for the more detailed categories now being seasonally adjusted.

The new and amended publication tables are attached (without any data). The AusStats format of the new and amended tables can be viewed in the attached AusStats tables (without any data).

As a result of the new tables, all tables from table 5 onwards in the current issue of the publication have been renumbered.

Adding the four tables has resulted in changes to the numbering of AusStats tables although this will not impact on clients who use the name of each table as the reference in their system. To try and minimise renumbering of AusStats tables in the future, the current numbering has been reviewed and some changes made. Concordances between the current and new table numbering for International Trade in Goods and Services, Australia follow.Table A Concordance between Current and New publication and AusStats tables

Current publication and AusStats tables

New publication and AusStats tables

1.

Goods and services, summary, seasonally adjusted and trend estimates

1.

Goods and services, summary, seasonally adjusted and trend estimates

2.

Goods and services, summary, original

2.

Goods and services, summary, original

3.

Goods credits, original

3.

Goods credits, original

4.

Goods debits, original

4.

Goods debits, original

5.

Goods credits, seasonally adjusted

6.

Goods debits, seasonally adjusted

7.

Goods credits, trend estimates

8.

Goods debits, trend estimates

5.

Services, summary, original

9.

Services, summary, original

6.

Services, summary, seasonally adjusted and trend estimates

10.

Services, summary, seasonally adjusted and trend estimates

7.

Services, original, quarterly

11.

Services, original, quarterly

8.

International merchandise exports, by commodity

12.

International merchandise exports, by commodity

9.

International merchandise imports, by commodity

13.

International merchandise imports, by commodity

10.

International merchandise trade, by country and country groups

14.

International merchandise trade, by country and country groups

11.

International merchandise trade, by state

15.

International merchandise trade, by state

12.

Period average exchange rates per Australian dollar

16.

Period average exchange rates per Australian dollar

Table B Concordance between Current and New non-publication AusStats tables

International trade in services, credits, financial year by country and service

59.

International trade in services, credits, financial year by country and service

30.

International trade in services, credits, service by financial year and by country

60.

International trade in services, credits, service by financial year and by country

31.

International trade in services, credits, calendar year by country and service

61.

International trade in services, credits, calendar year by country and service

32.

International trade in services, credits, service by calendar year and by country

62.

International trade in services, credits, service by calendar year and by country

33.

International trade in services, debits, financial year by country and service

63.

International trade in services, debits, financial year by country and service

34.

International trade in services, debits, service by financial year and by country

64.

International trade in services, debits, service by financial year and by country

35.

International trade in services, debits, calendar year by country and service

65.

International trade in services, debits, calendar year by country and service

36.

International trade in services, debits, service by calendar year and by country

66.

International trade in services, debits, service by calendar year and by country

20.

Monthly forward seasonal adjustment factors

90.

Monthly forward seasonal adjustment factors

CHANGES TO A NUMBER OF TABLES PRESENTING SERVICES DATA

Tables 5 and 6 (will be tables 9 and 10) present monthly services data while table 7 (will be table 11) presents quarterly services data. The presentation of the category "transportation services" in the tables with the monthly data has been amended to align with the presentation used in the table of quarterly data. In addition, the sub-totals in table 7 have been revised and are now presented in a consistent manner to other tables in the publication. The revised publication tables (with no data) and the associated AusStats tables (with no data) are attached.

INQUIRIES

If you have any queries about these changes please contact Tom Jebbink on (02) 6252 5540.

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