LONDON — “I like him a lot!” This week’s state visit provides ample proof that French President Emmanuel Macron has found a special place in his American counterpart Donald Trump’s heart.

Their hand crushing contest from last year has even been superseded by a few man-to-man cheek kisses — an unusual sight on U.S. television news.

Trump may be hugely unpopular in France but this will be a net positive for Macron at home, at least in the short term. The French like to see their president strutting the world stage, especially if his strutting brokers compromises between global powers. But like many spring trysts, the encounter is one Macron may soon come to regret — especially if his progress in Washington proves illusory or puts him at odds with his allies in Europe.

The French president heads home claiming at least three achievements. First, having demonstrated Europe is becoming tougher on Chinese trade and deserves a permanent exemption from the new U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum. Second, having persuaded Trump to be less rushed in his withdrawal of U.S. troops from Syria.

Macron’s advantage in Washington is unlikely to help him in his struggle with Berlin over the coming weeks.

His third achievement concerns the Iran deal. The detail of yesterday’s apparent compromise has been kept secret but Macron claims there is now room for a “new deal” which could satisfy the U.S.

This may be enough to satisfy French public opinion but EU capitals are less likely to be convinced. Much has been made of Macron the “Trump whisperer,” but the French president had to prioritize among the many multilateral processes the U.S. president has shunned. He didn’t even attempt to lure the U.S. back into the Paris climate agreement, and his successes in other areas already feels a bit shaky.

Macron hasn’t secured a clear commitment on anything, including the tariff exemption. What the U.S. president promises to someone he personally likes may not endure when he is talking to someone he dislikes.

A revealing moment from the footage before the talks will alarm EU leaders. Unprompted, Trump bemoaned the fact he couldn’t use the meeting to launch talks on a trade deal with France because the unacceptable demands of other EU member countries got in the way.

On Friday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel will be in Washington for a working visit. Trump has a visibly poor relationship with Merkel and regularly grumbles about Germany’s trade surplus. Next to her, it would be no surprise if he suddenly brings up new “tests” for the EU’s strategy against Chinese trade practices before a permanent exemption from tariffs can be secured.

Macron’s other successes also feel too bilateral. It isn’t clear how other EU member countries will feel about a “new” Iran deal and the additional demands the U.S. will make. At the press conference, Trump cheekily said that he’d keep his decision secret until the May 12 deadline but that he’d already told Macron. This would suggest other EU members haven’t even been consulted.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel (right) and French President Emmanuel Macron (left) attend a press conference on April 19, 2018 in Berlin | Carsten Koall/Getty Imagesfucs

The overall impression Macron’s EU partners will get from the state visit is that France still considers its EU membership and its partnership with the U.S. as two separate levers it can use to defend its own interests. Since the visit hasn’t unlocked a permanent tariff exemption, and instead confirmed that Trump merely prefers dealing with Paris bilaterally, it is hard to imagine how Macron will use his good relationship with Trump to boost his beleaguered EU reform ambitions.

During Macron and Merkel’s own bilateral talks in Berlin last week, they agreed on their strategy for their meetings with Trump and — revealingly — not much else. Even at the press conference which was held before the talks, their diverging views on eurozone reform were clear, although they did reiterate their promise to produce a common roadmap by the June European Council.

Macron’s advantage in Washington is unlikely to help him in his struggle with Berlin over the coming weeks. The fact that France is doing its homework on a domestic level by removing regulatory rigidities and cutting the deficit is more relevant but it will take at least two years for the reforms to yield benefits.

An immediate crisis in U.S.-EU relations would give Macron more bargaining power within the EU but the bloc’s tariff exemption is likely to be extended. A crisis affecting European markets could also force Berlin to give Macron a better hearing, eventually. Once again, Europe is idly waiting for the next crisis.

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lib crit

Macron managed to secure France’s interests in Iran so well done to him.

Posted on 4/25/18 | 5:11 PM CEST

Irene Duym

As a US media, I hope Politico enjoys what it calls a Trump play on Macron. This was not a one-way exercise: very smartly, Macron helped the US president “play” his role. He probably didn’t succeed in obtaining that the WH tenant would change his mind but he managed to force him to be more courteously insulting than he usually is. And that, as such, is an achievement. I was going to compare DJT to a bulldog but it would be an insult to an adorable and loving animal.

Posted on 4/25/18 | 5:13 PM CEST

Irene Duym

By the way, what was this stupid hat on Melania’s head? Were to sunrays too hot in Washington or did she want to protect herself against her “husband’s” unexpected kisses in front of cameras? Can Politico answer that question?

Posted on 4/25/18 | 5:19 PM CEST

Tony Brown

A this stage I have got no opinion either way of the effectiveness of Macron domestically or internationally.

I thought the dandruff incident was revealing. Was Trump trying to show him who is the senior partner? Did this get shown on French TV?

Posted on 4/25/18 | 5:40 PM CEST

Irene Duym

@Tony Brown
Yes, it was shown on French TV and many commentators had a good laugh about it. Some disapproved.

Posted on 4/25/18 | 5:42 PM CEST

Peter Monta

Does someone pay Eurasia Group money for this sort of vague babble? Trump’s behavior did prove one thing. For someone who ostensibly is right winger he was completely gauche.

Posted on 4/25/18 | 7:13 PM CEST

Antoine uk

Macron showed he can handle Trump and keep a good relationship while expressing his own views including his many disagreements in public in front of the Senate.
Of course, both parties know he cannot impose his views on Trump and it is not the intent. Whether he can influence him remains to be seen but it was worth having a try in his own singular way. Sure, Angela will have a different approach and also has other weapons.
What is refreshing is that Macron, both in EU parliament and with Trump, is trying to influence and push into directions he believes are right and, on several subjects (Global warming, need to reform Europe,…) for the World rather than just for France.
It is clear that he does not have the power to impose anything so he will get a bloody nose on several subjects…. but any result that would not have been obtained by being prudent will be valuable.

Posted on 4/25/18 | 7:40 PM CEST

Darius Na

A little boy (Macron) was way out of depth in adult run Washington, DC and left for home with a pat on his back, some pointers on keeping his attire, and perhaps his nose, clean.
But the whole exercise did allow Trump to come away having done the equivalent of politicians’ staple of “baby kissing”, so it wasn’t a total loss.

Posted on 4/25/18 | 8:04 PM CEST

Neo Siratzi

How MACRON got played??!!! Seriously, I think Politico has to review the competence of their journalists… (perhaps off-shored article writing to “save” a buck or two?)

No – Macron is not best buddy with Trump. He is obviously just doing what adults often do when dealing with stubborn children: exploiting their juvinal minds by means of flattery and reversed psychology to meet their objectives (which in this case was to make US stick to the Iran-deal [in the same way that he persuaded them to stay in Syria]). Basically, T: s shortcomings has become such a liability that Macron is now running US forreign policy (and as a result UK:s via May: s “special relationship” with T. )

Johann M. Wolff

Wondering why are you reading these pages, as Politico is quite in the center.
I strongly believe you’d be happier on the forums of Die Tageszeitung.

Posted on 4/26/18 | 8:55 AM CEST

Irene Duym

@Johann M. Wolff
Love Berlin: wonderful city. First time I went was 1991 so Postdammer Platz was still a huge empty field covered in memories from the Russian occupation. However, I don’t think the media you mention would be my favourite one. So you have decided I am left wing or even more so. You don’t know me so don’t jump to hasty conclusions, please. Thank you 🙂

Posted on 4/26/18 | 6:52 PM CEST

Irene Duym

@Johann M. Wolff
As to Politico, it sometimes upsets me and I enjoy challenging some of its assertions. There is nothing else to it. 😉

Posted on 4/26/18 | 6:54 PM CEST

Irene Duym

It is very clear that the way he dragged Macron was meant to be humiliating, same for the drandruff episode. Nothing else to expect from someone who is in love with himself. So pretending “his friend Emmanuel is going to be a great president” is but total hypocrisy. Macron reacted very well by playing the game. Congrats to him. To win without risk is to triumph without glory. But to him, this sentence is by far too elaborate and esoteric.

Posted on 4/29/18 | 5:19 PM CEST

Irene Duym

Previous post: by “to him the sentence ….” was of course referred to the US WH tenant.

Posted on 4/29/18 | 5:21 PM CEST

Irene Duym

Strangely enough, although I have friends in the US and always respected the country and its past, since DJT rules over it, I consider the US differently to say the least. A bunch of greedy people with no respect for anyone else but themselves. Just “ordinary people” implying the negative meaning of the word, because Redford’s movie was beautiful. But here, “ordinary” to me has turned into simply “basic”. Not “people like any other” but simply elementary people who ignore fundamental rules when it comes to consideration towards others, respect. Those feelings that help society function. None of this for one year. But attacks, criticism, irony. What a shame.