Investing in GCC

Investing In Saudi Arabia

Investing in Saudi Arabia

OPEC’s Economic Clout Set to Grow

The world economy will witness a $2,000bn shift in wealth and power from oil-consuming countries to members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries as oil prices rise to $200 a barrel by 2030.

The projected near-tripling of Opec’s revenue to $2,000bn by 2030 from last year’s $700bn comes on the back of significantly increased oil price assumptions. In its report, the IEA sees oil prices reaching $200 by 2030; almost doubling last year’s forecast of $108 by the same year.

In its report, the IEA assumes a rebound from today’s levels, expecting oil to trade, in real terms adjusted by inflation, at an average of more than $100 a barrel from 2008 to 2015. By 2030, prices will be more than $200 a barrel, or more than $120 when adjusted for inflation.

The cartel will control 51 per cent of the world’s oil supply by 2030, up from last year’s 44 per cent. Saudi Arabia will remain the largest producer with its output rising to 15.6m barrels a day in 2030 from the current 9.5m b/d.

Saudi Arabia Economic Profile

Saudi Arabia is one of the growing economies in the region with real economic growth at 6.1% in 2005 and 4.3% in 2006. Last few years were prosperous for the Kingdom mainly due to strength of the oil sector, better domestic geo-political environment, acceleration of reforms, membership of the World Trade Organization, growth of foreign assets of Saudi Arabia Monetary Authority (SAMA), increased liquidity in the market, strong private sector growth and high corporate earnings.

Oil has a major share in the country’s revenue. Government officials have set a vision for the year 2025 where the economy will be a diversified, private-sector driven, providing rewarding job opportunities, quality education, health care facilities and necessary skills to ensure positive growth momentum. The Kingdom is focusing on development of an attractive investment environment. In the past years corporate tax on foreign-owned firms was reduced from 45% to 20% which has aided in foreign direct investment inflows to increase from US$183mn in 2000 to US$18,293mn in 2006. The Kingdom also benefited from accession to the World Trade Organization three years ago. Saudi Arabia intends to be among the top ten competitive nations in the world for inward investment by 2010 “10x10 Strategy”.

The authorities are also looking to attract US$300bn of investments in ‘energy-intensive industries’ over the next 13 years. A further US$100bn of investments is also being sought for ‘Knowledge-based’ industries and a similar amount for transportation ventures. Variety of industrial projects, transport developments, building of six new cities, liberalization initiatives as well as oil and gas ventures are certain to ‘increase the level of investment desired by the country.

Gross Domestic Product

Saudi Arabia is the largest economy in the Middle East and the biggest of the oil producers worldwide. Oil plays a major role in the economic performance of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, exposing it to external shocks stemming from changes in international oil prices. The country plays a pivotal role in the global oil market owing to its high levels of production, spare capacity and exports. The Kingdom is the world’s largest crude oil producer and has a share of 11% in the world oil supply. Its oil reserves are estimated to account for around 22% of global reserves and 55% of GCC reserves while it has 252tncf of natural gas reserves, accounting 16% of the GCC total gas reserves.

Saudi Arabia’s nominal GDP grew by 10.6% (SR1.3tn) in 2006 against 26% in 2005 (SR1.18tn) and real GDP rose by 4.3% (SR798.9bn) in 2006 as against 6.1% (SR766bn) in 2005. The relatively slower growth rate in 2006 was a result of fall in oil production levels in second half of the fiscal year. However, drop in production levels supported the oil prices. Nevertheless, economic activity on the ground remained robust owing to the government’s investment drive - a key precept of the reform program. The expansionary fiscal position continued to support domestic economic activity, as did the continuation of the government’s reform and investment program. Country’s mining and quarrying sector accounted for more than 50% of total nominal GDP in 2006. Government services ranked second in terms of contribution to nominal GDP amounting to 14%, while the finance, insurance, real estate and business services followed at 8% of GDP.

Nominal and real GDP growth accelerated from 2002 to 2006, and exhibited a CAGR of 17% and 6% respectively. Real GDP growth was driven by increasing oil production levels, higher government spending and the subsequent pick-up in domestic demand. The difference between the real and nominal GDP grew as real GDP growth reflects the change in total volume output of oil and increases in oil prices don’t have an impact on real GDP growth.

Although the government is making efforts to reduce the dependence of oil by promoting and facilitating investment in the non-oil sector, oil sector domination in GDP continued to grow due to the high prices that prevailed during the period. In manufacturing sector, refining witnessed strong growth as new downstream projects helped the refining industry to grow at a CAGR of 21% during 2002-06 whereas the manufacturing sector recorded a CAGR of 14%. However, the contribution to the GDP by manufacturing sector remained flat at 9% in 2006. The robust performance of the manufacturing sector reflected the growth of the petrochemical sector. The potential of petrochemicals remains strong owing to government expansion program, extensive global demand and Saudi Arabia’s agreement with the WTO. Construction activities exhibited healthy growth as a CAGR of 7.2% was posted by the sector during 2002-06 and its contribution to the nominal GDP stood at 4.5%. The sector is well supported by a number of projects entering the implementation stage. These include Petrochemical and infrastructure projects, as well as the KingAbdullahEconomicCity and include the development of new residential, industrial and services facilities in the Kingdom. Total planned investment in the construction sector over the next five years is estimated to cross SR1.31tn (US$350bn), a sum which will keep the sector in a state of boom. Apart from that a new mortgage law is due to be passed this year which will provide further impetus to the construction sector.

The proposed long term strategy for Vision 2025 involves:

− Doubling per capita GDP from its current level of SR43,300 at the beginning of 2005 to SR98,500 in 2025.

− Commensurate increase in the quality of life of citizens.

− Increase in per capita income of Saudi citizens is to be accompanied by a matching increase in their standard of living.

− Economic growth could be fuelled by boosting investments in both the public and private sectors.

− Economy is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 9.3% during the strategy period.

Public Finance

Saudi Arabia’s 2008 national budget projected the revenues at SR450bn and expenditure at SR410bn resulting in the surplus of SR40bn. The revenues are 38% lower than the year 2007 estimates of SR621.5bn. It is to be noted that the actual revenues of 2006 were higher by 73% than the budgeted revenues reported for 2006 indicating the conservative estimates maintained by the government while preparing the budgets.

Budget 2008

Saudi Arabia’s 2008 national budget projected the revenues at SR450bn and expenditure at SR410bn resulting in the surplus of SR40bn. Budget 2008 is a continuation of the government focus on optimizing the available resources and giving priority to social infrastructure and services especially in education, health, social affairs, municipal services, water and sewage, and roads. Moreover, the budget put special emphasis on projects related to research and development and e-government in addition to capital expenditures that will create more job opportunities and enhance economic activities, and boost economic growth.

2008 Budget Allocations

− Education and Manpower Development: Total expenditure amounts to SR105bn including technical and vocational training. These include King Abdullah Project for Education Development amounting to SR9bn. In addition, new projects include 2,074 new schools (in addition to 4,352 schools currently under construction), rehabilitation of 2,000 existing school buildings.

− Health and Social Affairs: Total expenditure amounts to SR44.4bn. New projects include over 250 primary care centers, 8 hospitals with a capacity of 1,900 bed, expansion and development of existing health facilities, and furnishing newly completed hospitals.

Meanwhile, there are 79 hospitals under construction which will add 9,850 beds.

− Transportation and Telecommunication: Total expenditure amounts to SR16.4bn. New projects include roads totaling 7,300km to be added to 24,000km of roads currently under construction, ports, airports, and railroads development, and new postal services. In this respect, the existing paved road network stands now at 54,000km.

− Water, Agriculture, and Infrastructure Sector: Total expenditure amounts to SR28.5bn. They include projects for water, sewage, and desalination projects amounting to SR13.3bn.

In addition, the budget includes appropriation for the two industrial cities of Jubail and Yanbu, and other industrial and agricultural projects amounting to SR7.6bn.

− Specialized Credit Development Institutions and Government Financing Programs:

(1) SR25bn to be allocated to the Real Estate Development Fund over five years. (2) Loans disbursed by Real estate Development Fund, Saudi Industrial Development Fund, Saudi Credit and Saving Bank, and Agricultural Bank since their inception amounted to SR224.7bn. SR16.2bn is expected to be disbursed in 2008 including credits to build hotels, schools, universities, and hospitals. Private higher education scholarship program will continue in 2008. Saudi Export Program managed by the Saudi Fund for Development financed SR6.9bn.

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Comments 4 comments

nasir 5 years ago

brilliant stuff..

kind regards

Nasir - London

Lethbridge Dentistry 6 years ago

Very informative hub on health care in your country. Thanks for sharing all this information.

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