NBA Analysis: Breaking Down Heat vs. Bulls

It’s only fitting that while the Western Conference has been filled with upsets, the Eastern Conference Finals showcase East’s two top seed’s. The match-up between the Bulls and the Heat provide compelling arguments and AccuScore is ready to advance cases for both teams.

Heat Favored to Win the SeriesDespite starting the series on the road, the Miami Heat are winning 57.7-percent of our series simulations, with the highest probability of close out coming in Game 6 (21.3-percent). While the Bulls did finish four games ahead of Miami in the loss column, the overall scope of the Miami team lends itself to the Heat simulating higher than the Bulls.

It should also be noted that while the Bulls had a terrific season, they exceeded our projections for them by ten (10) full wins. On the flip side, by winning only 58-games, the Heat underperformed against our simulations by 6.5 games.

The Value Bet is on the BullsThe simulations speak for themselves and Heat are comfortably over the 50.1-percent needed to be a money line favorite according to AccuScore. However, Vegas is going to charge you a tax and make you overpay to bet LeBron and company. In the world of zero-sum propositions, if you are overpaying for the Heat, then you are underpaying for the Bulls.

The odds for the series are Heat (-186) and the Bulls (+167). To properly see if odds give fair value against our simulations, AccuScore created Side Value. The first step in determining Side Value is converting the Las Vegas odds into a win percentage for each team. In this case, Miami -186 converts to a series win percentage of 63.5-percent; and the Bulls +167 converts to a series win percentage of 36.5-percent.

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As previously stated, AccuScore simulations show the Heat to be a 57.7-percent favorite, but if you want to bet on them you will pay the price as if they were a 63.5-percent favorite. The 5.8-perecent is difference and really highlights the value being on the Bulls.

The Bulls are winning a healthy 42.3-percent of our series simulations, and Vegas is giving you great value on them by setting the odds as if they were close to a 1-to-3 underdog.