Coastal State Unemployment: A Mixed Bag

Coastal State Unemployment: A Mixed Bag

The nation's unemployment rate has been trending gradually
downward, as public payrolls decline but private payrolls rise
to pick up the slack. But among coastal states, there continues
to be a wide spread in the unemployment rates, with some
regions improving as other regions continue to struggle. And to
complicate matters further, the federal Bureau of Labor
Statistics has just made a correction to its figures based on
newly available U.S. Census data, introducing some confusion
into the public's mind about what the numbers really mean.
Google provides an easy-to-use set of interactive charts
depicting the Labor Department's unemployment data in graphic
form. Below is a snapshot of national unemployment rates from
November, 2011 viewed as a state-by-state bar chart, with
coastal states highlighted (click the image to go to the
interactive Google page).
And here is a line chart showing coastal state unemployment
trends since 2002. Again, click the image to go to the Google
page, where you can highlight different states or change the
time frame of the graph.
From the high-unemployment states such as Rhode Island or
Mississippi, down to low-unemployment New Hampshire (which is
mostly landlocked and extends inland as far as Canada, with
only a short coastline), the graphs show a wide spread. Various
local and state factors may account for the disparity
&euro;” New Hampshire and Maine, for
example, benefit from proximity to a relatively active economy
in the Boston metropolitan area, which has a better jobs
picture than the rest of Massachusetts. New York's numbers are
affected by New York City's status as the center of the
national financial system and the city's importance in
international shipping. But New Jersey, Connecticut, and Rhode
Island, for example, appear to have not caught onto the
coattails of either Boston or New York.
Local reporting from coastal states highlights the mixed
picture. The Gulf Coast is seeing some improvement, reports the
Mobile Press-Register
("
Gulf Coast employment picture starting to brighten after a few
dark years
,"by Katja Wilkinson). "Unemployment rates in
south Alabama in December fell below the national average for
the first time since 2009. Mobile County's unemployment rate
was 8.4 percent, down from 9.1 percent in November and 9.7
percent in November 2010,"the paper reports. While the loss of
a major defense contract a few years ago disappointed Alabama
boosters, continuing expansion on a smaller scale by a variety
of industrial employers has brightened the local picture in the
past year.
Farther down the gulf, the South Texas coast is also showing
signs of improvement, Corpus Christie television station
KRIS-TV notes
("
Coastal Bend Unemployment Lowest In Nearly 3 Years
,"by Bart
Bedsole). "Employment in trade, transportation, utilities, and
leisure and hospitality continues to increase, while government
jobs continue to decline,"the station reports.
But on the Atlantic coast, North Carolina is seeing a weaker
situation, reports Carolina News14
("
Unemployment rate increases in most NC coastal counties
").
"Graham County has the highest unemployment in the state at
17.5 percent, that's up more than 2 percent from the previous
month. New Hanover County's rate was one of the lowest at 9.7
percent, which was up .4 from November. Brunswick County's rate
was 11.9, up more than 1 percent from last month and Pender
County was one of the exceptions. Its rate dropped a .1 to 11.5
percent,"the station reported.
As hard times drag on, unemployment insurance expenses are
weighing on state budgets. In South Carolina, that's triggering
a push by lawmakers for tougher scrutiny of the laid-off
workers who receive the benefits, according to a report in the
Columbia State
("
Bills target the unemployed
,"by Gina Smith). Two measures
advancing in the state legislature would require unemployed
people to undergo drug testing in order to collect benefits,
while another bill would make benefits conditional on volunteer
work in the community.
Meanwhile, a minor modification in the statistical
background of the Bureau of Labor Statistics' reports on
employment levels and the unemployment rate has set off
speculation that the U.S. government may be cooking the books
for political reasons. Dr. Joe Webb has an informative post
about the adjustment and its implications at his "What They
Think"blog
("
Unemployment Rate Drops, Conspiracy Theories Rise, Economy
Improves
."by Dr. Joe Webb). "The first thing that happened
statistically was that [the revised Census estimates] added
300,000 more workers to the household survey, which reduced the
unemployment rate more than would have occurred
"naturally."Second, it reduced the labor participation rate
from 64% to 63.7%. This meant that all along the BLS was
undercounting both the number of jobs holders and undercounting
the number of people not working at the same
time.&euro;
Webb comments, "The entire process is a reminder that
statistical precision is often elusive, the application of
statistical concepts is more art than science, and that data
series like the unemployment data are best viewed over time,
not as a single event.&euro;
Gallup organization's national unemployment estimates
from
2010 to the present &euro;” estimates
based on Gallup's own 30-day rolling average of a 30,000-person
polling sample, not on government data. The general trend is
down, the chart indicates &euro;” but
slowly, and in fits and starts. Joe Webb observes, "We know
that there is no sign of an economic boom, just some positive
economic activity that is barely above muddling
by.&euro;
Statistics and figures, of course, can be put to all sorts
of purposes. A case in point: it turns out that unemployment
figures are linked to Super Bowl outcomes
&euro;” statistically, at least. But even
though the relationship is clear, predictions remain risky.
Before last Sunday's game, the Quincy, Mass.,
Patriot-Ledger reported that San Jose, Calif., think
tank RiseSmart, Inc., had analyzed 20 years of data and
discovered that the winner of the Super Bowl had been the team
whose city had the lowest unemployment rate
&euro;” 17 times out of 20
("
The New England Patriots are sure winners Sunday if our lower
unemployment rate is any indication
,"by Joe Chesto).
The Patriot-Ledger had the sense to hedge its bets,
however, noting, "Of course, a statistician would remind us at
this point that correlation and causation are two entirely
separate things."Hindsight, as we know, is 20-20. As of Monday,
RiseSmart had yet
to provide any explanation for the anomalous Giants
victory.