Forecast

Commentary: Teachout could oust governor

By Bruce Ferguson, Commentary
| on August 17, 2014

I admit it. I'm all in for Zephyr Teachout, the political unknown challenging Gov. Andrew Cuomo in the Democratic primary on Sept. 9. But am I dreaming, or is it just possible that she can knock the mighty Andrew Cuomo off the ballot?

Conventional political wisdom would say she can't. Cuomo is well-known. His poll numbers are strong. And he's sitting on a war chest of $35 million. Teachout has never held office and her campaign has less than $1 million.

So she doesn't have a chance, right? Well, consider what happened to Eric Cantor, the House majority leader who lost the Republican nomination in his Virginia district to a political novice despite national name recognition, a powerful position, and a 40-to-1 spending advantage.

There's another political reality to consider: Very few people actually vote in primaries, and the candidate who can motivate his or her core supporters wins. True, Cuomo has enough money to blanket the state with advertising and will have phone banks working overtime on his behalf. These are both huge advantages. What does Teachout have, apart from an unusual name (it's Dutch, by the way)?

For one thing, she's taken positions that might persuade impassioned single-issue voters — among the most motivated in the electorate — to turn out in force. If enough of them hear her message, she may be able to capture the 400,000 votes it will likely take to win the nomination. (Her campaign collected more than 45,000 signatures to secure her place on the ballot.)

More Information

Bruce Ferguson is chairman of the Democratic Committee in the town of Callicoon, Sullivan County, which unanimously endorsed Teachout.

Teachout expects parents and teachers will support her because she's calling for increased spending on education, and because she wants to jettison Common Core standards, which have proved to be unpopular with both educators and the public alike. The Buffalo Teachers Federation is endorsing her, and even let it be known that it may back Republican Rob Astorino in the general election if Cuomo ends up on the Democratic line.

And Teachout can certainly count on votes from Democrats demanding campaign finance reform. In 2010, candidate Cuomo pledged to plug a loophole in the law that let some companies pour huge amounts of money into political races. But since then, instead of closing the loophole, he exploited it to raise $6 million for his re-election bid. But corporations don't vote, people do, and in the first four weeks of her campaign Teachout received more individual donations than Cuomo received during the last six months.

Then there's fracking. Polls have shown that many New Yorkers no longer believe the governor when he says he's carefully weighing the evidence; they think he's dragging his feet. In contrast, Teachout has a clear position on an issue that is likely to turn out a lot of single-issue voters. Teachout says she's looked at the scientific evidence and concluded that fracking is dangerous and destructive; she's calling for a statewide ban.

There is also the unknown impact of the corruption scandal playing out across the front pages of newspapers across the state. Cuomo's office has been accused of interfering with the Moreland Commission on Public Corruption, forcing it to withdraw subpoenas that might have exposed wrongdoing on the part of his inner circle. The ongoing U.S. Attorney's investigation of the matter provides Teachout with a ready-made issue. She claims to be a real reformer — a political outsider who, incidentally, wrote a book on political sleaze, "Corruption in America," published by Harvard University Press.

Finally there's the personality issue. Yes, Cuomo is smart and powerful, but his authoritarian style doesn't inspire affection. In her campaign appearances, Teachout comes across as approachable and genuinely interested in what others have to say. If elections were popularity contests — and to some extent they are — the governor could be in real trouble.

Can all these factors coalesce to overcome Cuomo's mountain of money and superior name recognition? Maybe. Maybe not.

Certainly all the smart money is on Cuomo. Just like it was on Eric Cantor.