I guess the storm from the west is falling apart. This morning there was a 70% chance of rain for Sun with the possibility of heavy rain for SEPA. Now, 7 hrs later, the chance of rain for Sun has been reduced to 50% and the heavy rain warning has been lifted. The possibility of rain for Sat is 80%.

Eh, not seeing much change. Keep in mind the official forecast is not what they think is going to happen. Political meteorology. For the official forecasts, they tone down the extremes. If you're expected to get swamped, they keep it lighter. If you're not expected to get anything, they say you have a chance at something.

At least till they're sure of the details.

There was always to be a break between storms Sunday. Only exception might be extreme SE corner where the Noreaster comes in just about as the front is exiting.

Frontal system enters western PA tomorrow morning. Takes about 4-6 hrs to pass any given location, 24 hrs to pass through the whole state. So for eastern PA, rain starts Saturday night and ENDS Sunday morning. Drops close to a half inch on most of the state, maybe a few holes here and there.

That's pretty much it for western PA probably. For eastern PA, the REAL storm follows. Enters from the SE early afternoon Sunday, and spreads NW ward, covering the eastern part of the state Sunday evening/night with hard rain. Tapering off Monday morning. Multiple inches of rain possible for many locations. Western extent of this bigger storm still in question, could include the central portions, and it may not. Higher elevations in NC PA still not out of the question for some snow.

shift west. Pretty much all of PA gets in on the bigger amounts, western PA back in for the real storm. It's entering Florida right now.

And snow a reality. Warren, Bradford area. Showing close to 12" of white stuff. Some snow all the way down to Pittsburgh. Now, I would assume with warm ground that will be melting as it comes down, so how much it equates to on the ground I don't know.

The last one I remember was back in 1993 when I lived in Binghamton and we got about a foot of snow on April 27th or 28th.

Getting around was pretty tricky for a day because they didn't plow. They already had pulled the plow frames off the dump trucks but it all was gone in a day or two and it did what it was supposed to do, it recharge the groundwater.

I highly doubt we'll see any snow here in Harrisburg but I welcome it up the line. The Susquehanna down here is already below 4 feet, which historically is the July 4th "target" level, and we desperately need some water.

Regards,

Tim Murphy

Posted on: 2012/4/21 9:57

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"Then the coal company came with the world's largest shovel, and they tortured the timber and stripped all the land. Well they dug for their coal till the land was forsaken, then they wrote it all down as the progress of man."

OK, I guess I was goin by the mets, who are still scaling back the prediction until they're sure.

Verbatim it looks like 20+ inches of snow for the Bradford area, 30" locally. I said a foot earlier. The foot is closer to what it shows for Pittsburgh and the Laurel Highlands (8-12" maybe, mixed with rain). Again, that's what falls, not what sticks, which is sure to be less as it'll be melting from the bottom as the storm adds to the top. Might be one of those deals where it's rain in the valleys and snow up high, too, especially further South through Johnstown to Pitt.

Eastern and central PA ranging from 2.5" to 5" of rain total over about an 18 hr period.

This is a BIG storm. Very impressive. It'd be truly historic if it happened in January or February, you'd have isolated locations with above 40" of snow, and widespread 30" totals.

Pattern changer. The warm and dry pattern is likely to reverse as it's just gonna demolish that stationary system in Canada that's steered everything out to sea. We'll be cool and in a shooting gallery for hit and miss clipper type systems for the next few weeks most likely.

Still waiting to lift my fly fishing moratorium. Finally got some new wading boots; and have been tying up my favorite patterns. Timing is fortuitous since there are a lot of streams getting trout in the next week. Hoping at least some of it is moderate and steady, so it sinks in.

In Media, you'll get the front coming through tonight, starting, say, around midnight, plus or minus an hour. That could be more hit and miss, thunderstorm type. Maybe a quarter to a half inch. Ending around dawn.

Then you get a break before the big storm comes in. But for you, that'll start late afternoon tomorrow. It won't stop till midday Monday, just a hard, cold, steady rain with plenty of wind. Several inches total.

Hey pcray, I've been following your posts and thanks for tracking those systems. The snowfall should be interesting. The Weather Channel is calling for thunder storms around 9 pm tonight in SE PA. Thank God we're getting rain.

Looking at wearecentralpa.com futurecast its supposed to start again today up in the state college area around 1500 hours. I live pretty close to the Little Juniata so if anyone has any plans to come over for next weekend I will take some pictures of the Little J on Tuesday. Mostly down around Barree where most people go well at least where I go.

Posted on: 2012/4/22 8:32

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You only live life once but if you live it right once is enough

That snowfall accumulation map has Potter getting around a foot of snow, which will mean a time released melt. That couldn't be much better for the region. Better than getting a ton of rain in the same amount of time, and watching much of it run off.