Tufts University Study Pegs World Vaccine Sales at $40 Billion by 2020

A Tufts University study projects vaccine sales to hit $40 billion by 2020.

Five companies now account for more than 80% of the market.

Demand for vaccines will be fueled by need to decrease health care costs and find a cure for cancer.

The value of the world market for vaccines was estimated at $33.1 billion in 20141—up from $24 billion in 200923 and $5 billion in 2000.3A new study conducted by Tufts University’s Center for the Study of Drug Development (CSDD) in Boston, MA forecasts annual sales of vaccines around the world will reach $40 billion by 2020.4

According to a summary of the Tufts CSDD Impact Report, “Worldwide vaccine sales grew at an average annual rate of 11.5% from 2005 to 2014, nearly double the 6% average annual growth rate for total pharmaceutical sales.”5

The report states that five companies account for more than 80% of total vaccine sales, and that the number of vaccines undergoing clinical trials increased from 102 in 2002 to 250 in 2013.5A Tufts CSDD press release notes, “Clinical trials are currently being conducted on new vaccines that aim to treat and prevent more than 40 infectious diseases, including historical and emerging scourges, such as dengue fever, malaria, HIV, and Ebola.”4

The top vaccine makers include American firms Merck & Co. and Pfizer Ltd., which each held 22.2% revenue share of the market last year; Sanofi SA of France, 19.9%; GlaxoSmithKline plc (GSK) of the United Kingdom, 17%; and Novartis AG of Switzerland, 5.8%.6 Together, these companies accounted for 87.1% of the revenue from vaccine sales.

The five companies are expected to remain the industry leaders through at least 2020, with Merck projected to account for 21.6% of revenue share, followed by GSK with 21.4%, Sanofi with 21.1%, Pfizer with 20.9%, and Novartis with 2.8%.6

The Tufts CSDD release cites the study’s principal investigator, Professor Ronald Evens, who believes that the market for vaccines is “likely to expand as demand for new vaccines grows.”4 The growth will be driven by different factors, “ranging from efforts to reduce health care spending to increasing demand for new vaccines to treat and potentially cure cancer worldwide.”4