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Hourly earthquake forecast for Asia-Pacificfor today and tomorrow - this is derived
from relative acceleration of sun and moon compared with observer location at North
Sumatra. The vector sum of acceleration is correlated with previous events for the
past 38 years (period of records available from USGS since 1973). The countries covered
by this forecast include those in South-East and East Asia Pacific Region - such
as Kamchatka, Kuril Isles, Japan (Hokkaido, Honshu, Kyushu) Izu Isles, Bonin Isles,
Volcano Isles, Taiwan, Ryuku, Philippines ( Baguio, Manila, Mindoro, Batangas, Surigao,
General Santos, Samar. Indonesia ( Sumatra, Java, Bali, Sumbawa, Flores, Timor, Sulawesi),
China (Sichuan, Xizang, Xinjiang) Pakistan, Myanmar, Andaman, Nicobar Isles and more.
The strengths shown on hourly forecast are only concerning past events so do not
necessarily indicate forecast strenghts. However the forecast should act as an indicator
of possible events - within a few hours. When a lot of past events in different locations
are shown on the same line it does not mean that all events will occur - in fact
it means that the movement is likely to be balanced so that probably less likely.
The table should be viewed in conjunction with the lunar calendars for Asia-Pacific
which are derived from the location of sun and moon relative to observer in N Sumatra
at zero hrs GMT on each day - see table sub latitude this month. For Asia Pacific
region calculations are also made concerning historic events which take account of
stress transfer across tectonic plates - this is done for magnitude M6+ and M5+ -
last 5 events each - also takes account of weather and lunar phase. Seelatestresults
- in this table the M5+ score highest is 2.0 which is probably most likely place
for quake on the day - while percentage probability also an indicator of possible
strength - thus less than 50% probably M4+, more than 50% M5+, more than 70% probably
M5.5+ - but depends also on other factors - If M6+ high too more likely for big quake.