Gray, Jo Anna
Stone, Joe A. (Joe Allan), 1948-
Stockard, Jean
2006-03-21T14:20:14Z
2006-03-21T14:20:14Z
2006-02
http://hdl.handle.net/1794/2463
45 p.
This paper proposes and tests a simple joint explanation for i) increases in marital and nonmarital birth rates in the United States over recent decades, ii) the dramatic rise in the share of nonmarital births, and iii) the pronounced racial differences in the timing of childbearing. The explanation arises from differences across time and race in the attractiveness of marriage and opportunities for investment in human capital. For given preferences, a decline in the marriage rate necessarily causes both the marital and nonmarital birth rates to increase, with no change in the total birth rate. This model exhibits exceptional power in replicating salient features of childbearing behavior. Our results suggest that changes in marital and nonmarital birth rates, as well as in the share of nonmarital births, arose primarily from changes in marriage behavior, not from changes in fertility; and that racial differences in the timing of childbearing reflect early differences in human capital investment.
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en_US
University of Oregon, Dept of Economics
University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers ; 2006-01
Illegitimacy ratio
Marriage
Birth rates
Education
Welfare
Childbearing, marriage and human capital investment
Working Paper

Climate Leadership Initiative
Mazze, Sarah, 1977-
Doppelt, Bob
Stockard, Jean
Shaddrick, Abbie
2008-07-30T17:10:14Z
2008-07-30T17:10:14Z
2008-05-07
http://hdl.handle.net/1794/6987
9 p.
In a 2007 pilot in Eugene, Oregon, the University of Oregon’s Climate Leadership Initiative
trained 50 community members who conducted 600 hours of volunteer outreach reaching 1250
people through a program we developed called the Climate Master program. A portion of those
outreach hours consisted of performing household “climate consultations” in 85 homes.
Results from a pre- and post-survey of the most active program participants showed an increase
in energy efficient purchases and energy saving behaviors, use of alternative transportation,
purchase of local foods, volunteering with organizations involved with climate change and
talking to others about climate change, along with a decrease in purchase of disposable goods
and meat eating. Through these actions and others, participants reduced their personal
greenhouse gas emissions by an average of 4,317 pounds, or approximately two tons. According
to self-reports in interviews and program evaluations, the actions also led to an increased sense
of wellbeing, empowerment and good health for participants, with some saying the program
changed their life. The pool of survey respondents included both those who participated in the
30-hour Climate Master training course and those who received household consultations from
Climate Masters. Forty-two people responded to both the pretest and posttest regarding
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and climate-related behavior, while 135 people participated in
the program at the level of survey respondents. Another 1100 were reached through outreach
efforts by Climate Masters like tabling, public speaking and distributing compact florescent
lightbulbs, the impact of which were not measured.
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Institute for a Sustainable Environment, University of Oregon
Climate Master Research Results
Other

Stockard, Jean
Gray, Jo Anna
O'Brien, Robert
Stone, Joe A. (Joe Allan), 1948-
2007-10-24T19:35:14Z
2007-10-24T19:35:14Z
2007-05
http://hdl.handle.net/1794/5132
45 p.
The authors employ a newly developed method to disentangle age, period and
cohort effects on nonmarital fertility ratios (NFR) from 1972 to 2002 for U.S. women
aged 20-44 – with a focus on three specific cohort factors: family structure, school
enrollment, and the ratio of men to women. All play significant roles in determining NFR
and vary substantially for whites and blacks. Indeed, if black women and white women
had cohort characteristics typical of the other group, age-specific NFRs for black women
would decline markedly, while those for whites would increase markedly. Hence, cohort
related variables contribute substantially to black-white differences in NFR in adulthood.
Early family structure and education are particularly crucial in the racial differences.
Most distinctively, while the impact of school enrollment on NFR is significantly
negative for whites, the impact is significantly positive for blacks, perhaps due to the
dominance of the “independence” effect.
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en_US
University of Oregon, Dept of Economics
University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers ; 2007-10
Fertility
Cohort
Unmarried births
Education
Family structure
Sex ratio
Cohort Effects on Nonmarital Fertility
Working Paper

Stone, Joe A. (Joe Allan), 1948-
Gray, Jo Anna
Stockard, Jean
O'Brien, Robert
2009-01-15T17:38:49Z
2009-01-15T17:38:49Z
2008-01
http://hdl.handle.net/1794/8308
48 p.
We employ newly developed methods to disentangle age, period and cohort
effects on nonmarital fertility ratios (NFRs) from 1972 to 2002 for black and white
women aged 20-44 in the United States. We focus on three cohort factors: family
structure, school enrollment, and the sex ratio. For both blacks and whites, cohorts with
less traditional family structures have higher NFRs. Other results differ by race. The
impact of school enrollment on NFRs is significantly negative for whites, but
significantly positive for blacks. The impact of sex ratio is significantly negative for
blacks, but insignificant for whites. If black women and white women had cohort
characteristics typical of the other group, age-specific NFRs for black women would
decline markedly, while those for whites would increase markedly.
en_US
University of Oregon, Dept of Economics
University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers;2008-5
Fertility
Education
Family structure
Sex ratio
Unmarried births
Cohort
Race Differences in Cohort Effects on Nonmarital Fertility in the United States
Working Paper

Stone, Joe A. (Joe Allan), 1948-
Stockard, Jean
Gray, Jo Anna
2009-01-09T17:23:23Z
2009-01-09T17:23:23Z
2008-09
http://hdl.handle.net/1794/8263
19 p.
In a 2006 article in Demography, Jo Anna Gray, Jean Stockard and Joe Stone (GSSi)observe that
among black women and white women ages 20 to 39, birth rates increased sharply for unmarried women
over the period 1974 to 2000. But they also increased for married women, as well, and yet the total birth
rate for married and unmarried women combined was essentially unchanged; ii)conclude that's since the
total birth rate did not change, it seems obvious by inspection that the rises in unmarried and married birth
rates could not have come from a general rise in fertility among women 20-39; iii)argue that these
patterns are an example of a phenomenon called "Simpson's paradox", often illustrated by a joke, as told
at Harvard, that when a student transfers from Harvard to Yale, mean intelligence rises at both places.
Both means rise not because the average intelligence of the combined student bodies changed, but
because the composition of the student body changed at each school; iv) conclude that between 1974 and
2000, sharp increases in the proportion of women who were single, termed the single share, or Su,
changed the composition of the pools of married and unmarried women. The rising single share had a
selection effect on the pools of married and unmarried women akin to the hypothetical student transfer
from Harvard to Yale. Women with target fertility below the average for married women, but above the
average for unmarried women, became less likely to marry than previously, so that mean birth rates for
both groups rose over the period, and iv) using age/race-specific panel data, find parameter values
strikingly consistent with those predicted by their illustrative model, and a dominant role for the selection
effect of the single share in determining NFR on this. Recently Ermisch Martin and Wu (EMW) have
challenged the GSS findings and conclusions. In this response GSS respond to the EMW challenges, and
reaffirm the GSS results and conclusions.
en_US
University of Oregon, Dept of Economics
University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers;2008-4;
Non-marital births
Marriage
Non-marital fertility ratio
Illegitimacy ratio
Fertility
The rising share of nonmarital births: A response to Ermisch, Martin, and Wu
Working Paper

Gray, Jo Anna
Stockard, Jean
Stone, Joe A. (Joe Allan), 1948-
2005-03-22T23:16:26Z
2005-03-22T23:16:26Z
2004-11-01
http://hdl.handle.net/1794/664
33 p.
Much of the sharp rise in the share of nonmarital births in the United States has been attributed to changes in the fertility choices of unmarried and married women - in response, it is often argued, to various public policies. In contrast, we develop and test a model that attributes the rise to changes in marriage behavior, with no changes in fertility. A variety of empirical tests strongly supports this conclusion and invites focused attention to issues related to marriage behavior, as well as the interactions between marriage and fertility.
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en_US
University of Oregon, Dept of Economics
University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers; 2004-17
Fertility
Illegitimacy ratio
Marriage
Non-marital fertility ratio
Non-marital births
The Rising Share of Nonmarital Births: Fertility Choices or Marriage Behavior?
Working Paper

Gray, Jo Anna
Stockard, Jean
Stone, Joe A. (Joe Allan), 1948-
2005-03-22T23:17:05Z
2005-03-22T23:17:05Z
2004-06-01
http://hdl.handle.net/1794/665
10 p.
We develop a model of fertility and marriage that implies a magnified effect of marriage rates on the share of births to unmarried women. For U.S. data, plots and regression estimates support the prediction that the share of unmarried births is driven primarily by the square of the share of unmarried women. Our findings suggest that some of the emphasis on changes in fertility behavior in explaining the rising share of births to unmarried women might be productively redirected toward exploring the role and determinants of changes in marriage behavior. Moreover, previous studies of fertility behavior, to the extent that marital status is taken as given, may confound fertility and marriage behavior.
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en_US
University of Oregon, Dept of Economics
University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers; 2004-16
Fertility
Illegitimacy ratio
Marriage
Non-marital births
Non-marital fertility ratio
A Tale of Two Shares: The Relationship between the
Working Paper