In Maine, a Gay Marriage Toss Up

Finally, at long last, we have some fresh polling on the Maine vote on gay marriage this fall. However, the DailyKos/Research 2000 poll doesn't ...

Finally, at long last, we have some fresh polling on the Maine vote on gay marriage this fall. However, the DailyKos/Research 2000 poll doesn't clarify much -- it shows Maine voters rejecting gay marriage 48%-46%, well within the margin of error.

This is about where I'd expect this contest to be. I say that because Maine is similar (politically) to California, where a gay marriage ban passed with 52% of the vote last year.

In recent presidential elections, California has been a bit more Democratic than Maine. President Obama received 61% of the vote in California and 58% of the vote in Maine.

On the other hand, Maine has a slightly more liberal electorate. In the 2008 exit poll, 25% of Californians described themselves as liberals, 44% were moderates and 30% were conservatives. In Maine, the figures were 27%, 44% and 29%, respectively.

Add it all up and the election should be very close, though the most likely result is the same one that we saw in California -- a narrow victory for opponents of gay marriage.