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Team USA – 2013 Team Analysis

Alright, here are all of the numbers that you never knew you wanted. You may still not want them, but if you’re a super nerd like me, analyzing teams is fun! Here are some select optimized teams using team USA’s 2013 scores. This kind of optimization, particularly with the average scores, was quite successful in predicting the members of the fierce five (not that we didn’t all see that team coming).

These are not all of the teams that I have calculated (only about 1/3), and if you are interested in seeing more of them, I’d be happy to publish them as well (or send you my mess of a spreadsheet). I am, however, only going to publish two teams in each category of gymnast’s high scores, low scores, average scores and highest credited difficulty scores. Those categories are

Six-person teams using scores of gymnasts from the 2013 Senior National TeamThis is essentially who we would expect to have made a world team this year if there had been a team competition at worlds

Five-person teams using scores of gymnasts from the 2013 Senior and Junior National Teams, in addition to gymnasts who are not on the current national team but competed internationally this yearThese teams can be thought of as a super early, unrealistic Rio prediction. Please keep in mind, this is just what the number are telling us. If I took a stats class, maybe I would be able to calculate how unrepresentative this type of data has been in the past, but I’m not really into stats (okay, this is all kind of stats related, but I used CS so it’s okay!)

These scores are almost all from USAG’s official results page. If difficulty scores weren’t listed there, the girls lose out on that difficulty. If somebody wants to provide additional difficulty scores, feel free to do so. I got some of the Mexican Open scores, but not all of them. I wanted to include that because it was a legitimate international assignment. You can see the scores I was working with here (I strongly recommend downloading the excel file).

Alright, here they are. Some of the teams, with counting scores in bold!

HIGH SCORES

6 Seniors

Vault

Bars

Beam

Floor

All Around

Simone Biles

15.933

14.850

15.100

15.233

61.116

McKayla Maroney

16.000

14.300

12.666

15.250

58.216

Elizabeth Price

15.700

14.833

13.833

14.466

58.832

Kyla Ross

15.366

15.500

15.250

14.500

60.616

MyKayla Skinner

15.250

13.550

14.250

15.000

58.050

Madison Kocian

14.950

15.000

14.800

13.700

58.450

Total

47.633

45.350

45.150

45.483

183.616

5 Gymnasts

Vault

Bars

Beam

Floor

All Around

Simone Biles

15.933

14.85

15.1

15.233

61.116

McKayla Maroney

16

14.3

12.666

15.25

58.216

Elizabeth Price

15.7

14.833

13.833

14.466

58.832

Kyla Ross

15.366

15.5

15.25

14.5

60.616

Bailie Key

15.1

14.45

15.55

15

60.1

Total

47.633

45.183

45.9

45.483

184.199

AVERAGE SCORES

6 Seniors

Vault

Bars

Beam

Floor

All Around

Simone Biles

15.852

14.391

14.485

14.692

59.419

McKayla Maroney

15.775

14.300

12.666

14.696

57.437

Kyla Ross

15.247

15.250

14.759

14.069

59.325

Kennedy Baker

14.117

13.617

14.417

14.300

56.450

Madison Kocian

14.700

14.517

13.617

13.417

56.250

Madison Desch

14.600

12.175

13.733

14.650

55.158

Total

46.874

44.157

43.661

44.037

178.729

5 Gymnasts

Vault

Bars

Beam

Floor

All Around

Simone Biles

15.852

14.391

14.485

14.692

59.419

McKayla Maroney

15.775

14.300

12.666

14.696

57.437

Kyla Ross

15.247

15.250

14.759

14.069

59.325

Norah Flatley

13.783

14.000

15.050

13.467

56.300

Katelyn Ohashi

14.900

14.566

15.333

14.400

59.199

Total

46.874

44.207

45.142

43.787

180.010

LOW SCORESnote: I let Ohashi’s scores count as highs and averages, but I am not counting them as lows.

6 Seniors

Vault

Bars

Beam

Floor

All Around

Kennedy Baker

13.850

13.550

14.300

14.050

55.750

Simone Biles

15.733

13.05

13.133

13.7

55.616

Madison Kocian

14.450

14.100

12.800

12.900

54.250

McKayla Maroney

15.6

14.3

12.666

14.333

56.899

Elizabeth Price

14.233

12.25

13.5

14.366

54.349

Kyla Ross

15.166

14.55

14.533

13.35

57.599

Total

46.499

42.950

42.333

42.749

174.531

5 Gymnasts

Vault

Bars

Beam

Floor

All Around

Kennedy Baker

13.850

13.550

14.300

14.050

55.750

Simone Biles

15.733

13.05

13.133

13.7

55.616

Norah Flatley

13.750

13.750

14.600

13.250

55.350

McKayla Maroney

15.6

14.3

12.666

14.333

56.899

Kyla Ross

15.166

14.55

14.533

13.35

57.599

Total

46.499

42.600

43.433

42.083

174.615

DIFFICULTY SCORES

6 Seniors

Vault

Bars

Beam

Floor

All Around

Simone Biles

6.3

6.1

6.3

6.5

25.2

Peyton Ernst

5.8

6.0

6.3

6.0

24.1

Kyla Ross

5.8

6.4

6.0

5.7

23.9

MyKayla Skinner

6.4

5.6

6.2

6.4

24.6

Lexie Priessman

6.3

5.9

5.4

6.3

23.9

Elizabeth Price

5.8

6.3

0.0

0.0

12.1

Total

19

18.8

18.8

19.2

75.8

5 Gymnasts

Vault

Bars

Beam

Floor

All Around

Simone Biles

6.3

6.1

6.3

6.5

25.2

Brenna Dowell

6.3

6.1

5.8

6.2

24.4

Kyla Ross

5.8

6.4

6.0

5.7

23.9

MyKayla Skinner

6.4

5.6

6.2

6.4

24.6

Bailie Key

5.8

5.4

6.5

6.0

23.7

Total

19.0

18.6

19.0

19.1

75.7

QUICK OBSERVATIONS

Biles, Maroney and Ross are on all of the teams (excluding difficulty for Maroney). They really are carrying this team

I expected to see Brenna and Bailie on more of these teams.

I was surprised to see Flatley, Baker and Desch on these teams, especially the average score teams which are most representative of the true situation.

There were 924 possible combinations of gymnasts to make up each of the 6 senior teams. There were 26,334(!) possible combinations of gymnasts to make up each of the 5 gymnast teams. Math is fun, guys!