13 July 2007

ten thousand pennies

Philadelphia Fish & Company is running a promotion in which, once the Phillies lose their ten-thousandth game, anybody who brings in ten thousand pennies can get a dinner for ten.

This is from the Don Polec's World segment on WPVI's 6 PM newscast yesterday. (To see the actual segment, look at the menu under the "Action News on demand".) The guy who came up with the promotion, Kevin Meeker, says it comes from an ancient Greek tradition -- when the ancient Greeks had lost ten thousand men in battle, they had a feast of fish and it was believed to bring them good luck.

(To answer the obvious question -- you actually have to bring ten thousand pennies. You can't just show up with a $100 bill. And they have to be rolled. He wants people to suffer.)

The Phillies are currently at 9999 losses. The probability of the Phillies' ten-thousandth loss tonight, which I originally looked at here and re-examined here and here? Just under 40%. The full distribution -- which is now nothing more than the distribution of the time until the team's next loss is as follows:

Jul 13

v. Cardinals

0.394329

Jul 14

v. Cardinals

0.238834

Jul 15

v. Cardinals

0.144655

Jul 16

@ Dodgers

0.130046

Jul 17

@ Dodgers

0.053929

Jul 18

@ Dodgers

0.022364

Jul 19

@ Padres

0.009184

Jul 20

@ Padres

0.003861

Jul 21

@ Padres

0.001623

Jul 22

@ Padres

0.000682

Jul 24

v. Nationals

0.000174

Jul 25

v. Nationals

0.000113

Jul 26

v. Nationals

0.000073

Jul 27

v. Pirates

0.000048

Jul 28

v. Pirates

0.000031

Jul 29

v. Pirates

0.000020

Jul 30

@ Cubs

0.000018

Jul 31

@ Cubs

0.000009

Aug 01

@ Cubs

0.000004

Aug 02

@ Cubs

0.000002

Aug 03

@ Brewers

0.000001

Aug 04

@ Brewers

0.000001

And how much do ten thousand pennies weigh? Twenty-five kilograms, or about fifty-five pounds.