I've gotten burned more than once thinking like that. Its predictable until it's not. It may be worth a shot though as this stock is way too boring/disappointing these days.

I too have been burned, however when Sirius gets locked in a trading range it stays there for a long time. I have played this before and gained quite a bit. It seems the trick is not so much the precise timing of when, but more so the gonads to pull the trigger at all.