ABC Election Map

The map lacks a lot of detail if you use Microsoft Internet Explorer. Electorate boundaries have had to be simplified to run efficiently in Explorer. The map has more detail and looks better in Chrome and other Windows browsers. It runs well on tablet computers but is a bit mucky on the tiny screens of a mobile phone.

You can search for an electorate or search for an address, and then click through to the electorate you've chosen.

Comments

I would be interested in your opinions regarding the representation of under 30's in the current polls. This demographic is more likely than ever to be either still living at home, sharing accommodation or even more likely possessing only a mobile phone. Do the major parties include mobile numbers in their polling or is this group truly underrepresented? Further, if this is the case, have we seen any similar issues affect polling reuslts in other western democracies?is there any data on this demographic?

COMMENT: At some point relying only on landline calls will undermine the validity of traditional polling. At what point the tipping point is reached is unknown.

Thanks so much for the map. It would be helpful to distinguish the LNP/CLP reps who currently sit with the Nats by showing those electorates in 'Nat Green'. It might be more politically correct to show in 'LNP blue' but I don't think this aspect of the map currently represents the member's party allegiances. I had to go to the Nats website to work out 1) how many members they have in the party room when LNP/CLP Nats are taken into consideration and 2) where their representative influence extends. Thanks, Antony, for the wealth of electoral wisdom you share with us through your work. i pray Jesus' blessing upon you, to grant you rest and rejuvenation after this busy time.

COMMENT: We display all candidates strictly as they appear on the ballot paper. If you adopt any other method you quickly find yourself tied in knots.

Looks great but I think the safe/marginal classifications are misleading in some seats. I suppose they're an attempt to reflect the state of things as of the last election, but a lot has changed in that time. E.g. it sounds as though Adam Bandt has a good chance of losing Melbourne to Labor yet it's "safe Greens". Similarly, Denison is "marginal independent" even though Wilkie is polling significantly more of the primary vote than any other candidate.

I never realised Bob Katter's division of Kennedy was so large! I guess population density is pretty low in the far north!

Great job with the blog - I enjoy reading as much as you have time to post.

COMMENT: Classifying seats as marginal, safe or very safe is done by definition based on the result of the previous election. If a seat was won at the last election by less than 6% it is defined as marginal. In defining whether a seat was marginal, safe or very safe at the last election, I am in no way making a statement that the electorate will be marginal, safe or very safe by the results of this election. I am just applying the definition of these categories which are long established in political science. It is a statement of where an electorate was, not where it is going.

Why is the threshold for "marginal" set at 6%? Does it mean that it is rare for either side to get more than 56% of the 2PP at an election?

COMMENT: Because decades ago political scientists decided to use it. Overall swings at an election are rarely above 5% which means the action tends to be concentrated in the seats that fit within the definition of marginal.

The ABC election map web site is great, but when I went to read the description of each candidate in my electorate (Richmond), I noticed that one of them had no description.

I then emailed that candidate directly to let him know in case it was an oversight on his behalf. He emailed back promptly saying that he asked the ABC to fix it weeks ago but has never heard anything back.

I'm not sure if the ABC web guys are ignoring the candidate and leaving his details blank for political reasons or if it's just an honest mistake, but all candidates should get a fair go.

I also think the candidates name is shown incorrectly, and won't match the name shown for the candidate on the ballot papers, which is another thing that should be fixed.

Please chase it up if you can.

NOTE- I'm an undecided voter, and am just interested in all candidates getting a fair go. I have no affiliation at all with the candidate or his party.

COMMENT: All candidate names are listed exactly as they appear on the ballot paper. Every page has a 'send feedback' link in the right hand column which links to where information can be sent in. I don't know which candidate you are talking about because you didn't name them. The site has concentrated on candidates who were publicly campaigning before the close of nominations.

Hi Antony, I've had a look at the prepoll and postal voting statistics released by the AEC. Currently around 950K prepolls have been lodged. This is a significant increase on 2010 (approx 550K) at the same time. Also it looks as though 400K extra postal votes will be lodged this election. So we could have 1 million more early votes than 2010. Will this have any effect on your predictions on Saturday? Is so what do you think will be the effect?

COMMENT: Not really. The big increase is in pre-poll votes and these are mostly counted on election night these days.

Good luck for the election tomorrow, I am sure I speak for all the readers of your blog when I say you add lustre to Australian democracy, and we are all looking forward to seeing your smiling face on the telly tomorrow night.

Query, unrelated to this topic thread but im not sure wherelse to post this...

In the seat of Charlton, given that the Liberal candidate has withdrawn, but still exists on the ballot paper, if the electorate wants change away from Labor but doesnt want a minor party in, is it conceivable that we still vote for the Liberal candidate so that he wins the elctorate, cannot take office and we go to a bi-election with a new Liberal candidate?