Meh, six dead in China? Must not be very virulent, because I figure in China a really nasty strain of this will kill 60,000 before being detected, 600,000 before ineffective quarantine procedures are in place and 6,000,000 before the West even noticies.

I don't know what they taught you in school, but when I learned maths I learned that any attempt to double zero gets zero. So the "doubling process" in your chart would end right at the zero line and never get any further. Pay more attention in class, smart guy.

I don't know what they taught you in school, but when I learned maths I learned that any attempt to double zero gets zero. So the "doubling process" in your chart would end right at the zero line and never get any further. Pay more attention in class, smart guy.

A couple years ago I spent some time trekking in Nepal, where in the hill country you can pretty much find every sort of mammal and fowl living with humans.

Within a week I went from the hill country of Nepal, to the lowlands that were pretty much uninhabitable except for a bunch of people with a genetic resistance to malaria, to Kathmandu, where they burn people and dump their ashes into the stagnant, barely flowing river, to...

Then about 10 hours hanging out in Indira Ghandi airport. a major hub in Asia.

Then 14 hours in a sealed tube flying to John F. Kennedy airport, a pretty big one in NY.

Then I stopped at a rest stop in New Jersey, split a cinnabon with my travelling companions...

Then on to Washington DC.

Then it occurred to me... You know, if I had picked up a virus in my travels, I've basically farked over the world.

Oh yes, vaccines are a BIG moneymaker. Tamiflu and Relenza, too -- wow, they makes ZILLIONS off of injections given once (vaccine) or for 5-10 days (the antivirals). Much more than all those medicines people take every single day.

Now, I've only been a physician for around a dozen years, but I'm a-waitin' for my Big PharmaTM payoff for all of those drugs and vaccines I give! Last time I checked, I got paid exactly $0.00 for every vaccine I ordered.

DubtodaIll:It's either going to be mass plague or mass war. Population reduction events are natural and inevitable.

Good. I guess you're volunteering yourself to be one of the casualties, so we won't work to protect you. We can protect the portion of the population who doesn't take such a fatalistic view.

I mean, death is inevitable, so we should just kill you now? Is that the logic?

maxheck:A couple years ago I spent some time trekking in Nepal, where in the hill country you can pretty much find every sort of mammal and fowl living with humans.

Within a week I went from the hill country of Nepal, to the lowlands that were pretty much uninhabitable except for a bunch of people with a genetic resistance to malaria, to Kathmandu, where they burn people and dump their ashes into the stagnant, barely flowing river, to...

Then about 10 hours hanging out in Indira Ghandi airport. a major hub in Asia.

Then 14 hours in a sealed tube flying to John F. Kennedy airport, a pretty big one in NY.

Then I stopped at a rest stop in New Jersey, split a cinnabon with my travelling companions...

Then on to Washington DC.

Then it occurred to me... You know, if I had picked up a virus in my travels, I've basically farked over the world.

That's getting close to one in a billion. I like dem odds. There are diseases so rare that scientists don't even know they exist yet which have killed a lot more people than that. On the other hand, every new strain of the flu has a first victim. It is the mutating to be transmissable between birds and humans, or birds and pigs, or pigs and humans, that is worrisome.

The reason why China is the world's main exporter of influenza is that it has an enormous number of Chinese peasants living in very close proximity to their geese and pigs, like, in the same tiny hut in many cases. There should be a large decline in global influenza when the peasants become rich enough to raise one crop or another, and to buy pork or fowl rather than raise their own food.

The alarming thing I have heard about this new strain in the last 24 hours or so is that it might be transmitted between birds and other animals. That means a reservoir of the virus could build and lurk until the flu has mutated into a more virulent form that can be caught by humans and spread easily.

At the moment this is the birth of a new flu strain. It isn't even a big problem locally yet.

It's practically the definition of "too soon to panic". It's too soon for Panic to hit the snooze alarm for a few more minutes of sleep.

maxheck: A couple years ago I spent some time trekking in Nepal, where in the hill country you can pretty much find every sort of mammal and fowl living with humans.

Within a week I went from the hill country of Nepal, to the lowlands that were pretty much uninhabitable except for a bunch of people with a genetic resistance to malaria, to Kathmandu, where they burn people and dump their ashes into the stagnant, barely flowing river, to...

Then about 10 hours hanging out in Indira Ghandi airport. a major hub in Asia.

Then 14 hours in a sealed tube flying to John F. Kennedy airport, a pretty big one in NY.

Then I stopped at a rest stop in New Jersey, split a cinnabon with my travelling companions...

Then on to Washington DC.

Then it occurred to me... You know, if I had picked up a virus in my travels, I've basically farked over the world.

Hipster.

Heh... expected response registered and accepted.

It gets worse... My last trip to Asia was going well until I hit Saigon. Spent three days using what little strength I had left to keep from pooping out any major organs I might need later.

I'd also like to take this opportunity to apologize to the housekeeping staff of the Asian Ruby 3 hotel... There is no way my tip covered what you had to deal with.

Anyway, I wasn't back a month before there was a major outbreak of colitis nearby that *did* in fact kill some people. I had to ask "Damn... Did *I* bring that back?"Travel is an epidemic's best friend. Ask the 1917 flu.