Been following IV for sometime, donated $100 today. Transaction ID: 6J91452909057105A. Keep up the good work!!

One confusion though. As per this: https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/114/hr213 it has 3% chances of being enacted. I certainly don't believe that number for this bill as this time it has but can anybody tell how is that number derived?

- B

This question has been asked by many members so making an attempt to share what we think.

Numbers and relevant percentages matter. But please try to look for the source of the numbers, assumptions and method in which those numbers were calculated before considering them to be facts. If the assumptions are incorrect and method is not relevant, the numbers will not be relevant.

The link you posted is a private website (although the URL seem to give a wrong impression that it might be a government website) with its own method to to provide some data point. If you dig a little you can find how they are calculating the percentage of the numbers. Here is the link:https://www.govtrack.us/about/analysis#prognosis

We don't believe that these numbers are relevant. 2015-2016 is not a repeat of 2011-2012. Those were different times and this is a different time. Facts, circumstances and environment is different.

Although we understand that many of us are from STEM background and we have a desire to analyze and draw probability to make intelligent guess, we believe that the assumptions for this % number is not complete and it is not considering hundreds of other factors that can (and will) contribute to how any bill (and this bill in particular) will progress.

In 2013 and 2014, Congress was considering CIR bill and there was no room to do piecemeal bills. So there was no room to push for individual bills where large CIR was being debated and discussed. And elimination of per-country limits for EB category was part of CIR which passed the Senate. Our fix was also part of the bills that passed the House last year.

You have to understand that even when there is sufficient support for our fixes, it has to wait for the right climate and timing. I know immigrants waiting in backlogs don't want to hear this because for our community what could be more pressing than fixing green card backlogs. However, Congress is dealing with other pressing issues as well. And the only way to increase the priority of our fixes is when more and more people waiting in backlogs will do their share to meet with their member of congress.

This year, Congress plans to tackle issues in piecemeal manner. Which is why it makes sense to support and ask your member of Congress to pass H.R.213.

I agree with your assessment and the fact that both chambers are now controlled by Rs, it is a good time to breathe life back into this. Even if enough folks on both side of the aisle support this or some morphed form of this bill, do you really think the WH has any appetite for piecemeal legislation on immigration?

Also, looking at the current state of affairs in the House, I fear that loonies in there will try to hold this hostage unless Boehner concedes and adds language to repeal/defund te EO that the President signed. Anyway, what is IVs sense of the approach the Senate and WH will take, of the bill makes it out of the committees and the lower chamber?

Hello Admin,
This looks very promising and helps almost everyone in this forum. I have a specific question - How does the Effective date works here? It says "Effective Sep 30, 2014...".

For Example - I'm an Indian with PD in 2014 & have applied I-485 in November 2014 using my spouse's country charge-ability (she is UAE born). If this bill passes which would remove the country cap which will make the cross country charge-ability invalid. Will my 485 approval be pushed back? Or it will go in sequence it was submitted?

Hello Admin,
This looks very promising and helps almost everyone in this forum. I have a specific question - How does the Effective date works here? It says "Effective Sep 30, 2014...".

For Example - I'm an Indian with PD in 2014 & have applied I-485 in November 2014 using my spouse's country charge-ability (she is UAE born). If this bill passes which would remove the country cap which will make the cross country charge-ability invalid. Will my 485 approval be pushed back? Or it will go in sequence it was submitted?

I would appreciate your response. Thanks!

Effective date here means that from that effective date bill will be effective. It does not have to do with priority date but you will get green card faster because it would be first come first serve.