Brown’s victory vaults NDP into lead in Ontario

TORONTO May 12th,
2015 - In a
random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll™ among 1001 Ontario
voters, more than a third (36%) will vote NDP if a provincial election were
held today, while one third would vote PC (33%). Fewer than one quarter would
vote for the incumbent Liberals under this scenario (24%).

The
NDP vote is common to the youngest (under 34 - 47%, 35 to 44 - 48%), the least
wealthy (less than $20K - 48%), mothers of children under 18 (49%) and the
least educated (44%),

The
PC vote is characteristic of the oldest (44%), males (40%), mid income groups
($60K to $80K - 45%), those who don’t believe in evolution (53%), disapprove of
same-sex marriage (55%), are pro-life (43%) and disapprove of the new sex
education curriculum (48%).

The
Liberal vote is common to boomers (55 to 64 - 29%), the wealthiest ($80K to
$250K - 28%), eastern Ontario 28%, Toronto 416 area code (33%), the best
educated (university degree or post grad - 29%), those who believe in the
evolution (28%), approve of same sex marriage (29%), and approve of the new sex
education curriculum (34%).

Of
note, close to 3-in-10 of those who voted Liberal in June 2014 will vote NDP if
the election were held today (29%), while one tenth will vote PC (11%). There
is little switching from the PCs or the NDP.

PC minority government seen

If
these results are projected up to a 107 seat Legislature, the PCs would take
49, 6 fewer than required for a majority, while the NDP would come very close
with 40 seats. The Liberals would be reduced to just 18 seats. In this
situation, one might expect the Liberals and NDP would come to an agreement to
govern cooperatively.

All 3 leaders evenly tied for best premier

There
is fundamentally no light between any of the contenders when voters are asked
who would make the best premier. One fifth select Patrick Brown (21%), one
fifth Andrea Horwath (20%) and one fifth Kathleen Wynne (20%). One quarter say
none of these people is up to the job (26%) and as many as a sixth don’t know
(14%).

Two thirds of Ontarians share progressive values

When
asked their view on a selection of fundamental value issues voters are most
likely to adopt an explicitly progressive stance with respect to all, but the
provincial government’s new sex education curriculum. Two thirds share a belief
in Darwin’s theory of evolution (61%), approval of same sex marriage (56%) and
a pro-choice stance on abortion (63%). On the new sex education curriculum,
there is less agreement (45% approve, 36% disapprove), but this still
represents a more favourable view than that noted two weeks ago (May 1, approve
- 42%, disapprove - 40%).

On
the other hand, there are substantial minorities with much less progressive
views. One fifth do not credit Darwin’s theory of evolution (21%), one quarter
do not approve of same sex marriage (25%), just less than one quarter are
expressly pro-life (23%) and more than a third do not agree with the health
education curriculum (36%)

Brown and Horwath supporters share values, Wynne’s most
progressive

Kathleen’s
Wynne’s partisans are especially likely to accept Darwin’s theory of evolution
(78%), same sex marriage (85%), be pro-choice (77%) and support the new sex
education curriculum (75%). Andrea Horwath’s supporters are less likely to
support these positions, but follow the same trends (accept Darwin - 59%,
pro-same sex marriage - 68%, pro-choice - 67%, pro-sex education - 47%). In
many respects, the values of Brown’s supporters are more similar to Horwath’s
than Wynne’s (Darwin - 53%, same sex marriage - 51%, pro-choice - 56%, pro-sex
education - 25%). On the other hand, Brown supporters are especially likely to
take positions which would not be described as progressive (don’t believe
theory of evolution - 29%, don’t approve of same sex marriage - 38%, pro-life
stance on abortion - 30%, disapprove of sex education curriculum - 58%).

“Patrick Brown is a bit of a conundrum. He hasn’t shared any
policy yet and he’s playing his cards very close to his chest when it comes to
his beliefs. We can see, however, that his supporters have some very firm ideas
about their values, and one they share widely is opposition to the new
provincial health education curriculum. In that respect, and several others,
his supporters resemble Andrea Horwath’s partisans more than Kathleen Wynne’s.
Given that a PC minority might lead to a cooperative government of some kind
between the two opposition parties, seeing how these different value sets might
mesh will be interesting," said
Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff,
Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at lbozinoff@forumresearch.com or at (416)
960-9603.