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Three Byelections Called

NDP back in the lead. Good day for the Greens. Bad day for the Libs. They stayed the same in one,dropped slightly in another and made gains in another due to unusual local conditions. The conditions being they had a popular mayor criticize their candidate, had a weak candidate, many provincial Tories sat on their hands to punish the federal Tories for supporting WR. Plus finally, this is not a trend.They are not going to win a seat in AB next election.

NDP back in the lead. Good day for the Greens. Bad day for the Libs. They stayed the same in one,dropped slightly in another and made gains in another due to unusual local conditions. The conditions being they had a popular mayor criticize their candidate, had a weak candidate, many provincial Tories sat on their hands to punish the federal Tories for supporting WR. Plus finally, this is not a trend.They are not going to win a seat in AB next election.

Good day for the Greens. Good day for the Libs. So-so day for the NDP & Cons. NDP barely hold VICTORIA, Cons barely hold CALGARY CENTRE. Meanwhile Greens & Libs come close to pulling upsets in both.

At 175/256 polls, Galloway had a 184 vote lead over Rankin. At 180 polls, Galloways lead was 315 votes I then wrote that whether Rankin can catch him depends on where the remaining polls as this quick increase is likely from wealthy polls. However, I had a glitch and could not enter this. Now Rankin has a 359 vote lead after 190 polls, likely due to middle and lower class polls coming in. Who wins still depends on where the remaining polls are located.

In Sask where I was a scrutineer the Conservatiives would have leads at first becasue the small rural polls (mixed urban and rural ridings federally) would be counted first and reported first. Later urban polls would help the NDP to gain some of the ground. I don't know this riding but could this be areas of high density housing coming in and these are NDP areas?

At 175/256 polls, Galloway had a 184 vote lead over Rankin. At 180 polls, Galloways lead was 315 votes I then wrote that whether Rankin can catch him depends on where the remaining polls as this quick increase is likely from wealthy polls. However, I had a glitch and could not enter this. Now Rankin has a 359 vote lead after 190 polls, likely due to middle and lower class polls coming in. Who wins still depends on where the remaining polls are located.

In Sask where I was a scrutineer the Conservatiives would have leads at first becasue the small rural polls (mixed urban and rural ridings federally) would be counted first and reported first. Later urban polls would help the NDP to gain some of the ground. I don't know this riding but could this be areas of high density housing coming in and these are NDP areas?

And probably the NDP campaign office knows already what the final outcome is from reports from inside scutineers.

But it's not the result the NDP wanted. And it gives Elizabeth May momentum to claim that she can now win additional seats and may some day be able to elect a friend to join her in the House and keep her from being alone!

In Victoria, the byelection is all about the sewer treatment--the Greens, Liberals and Conservatives want to back off on treatment, the NDP is the only party taking the difficult position of treatment--nobody it seems wants to pay more taxes. Shame on the Greens for using this issue. Murray Ranking started off the campaign on his opposition to Enbridge and reducing homelessness. The other parties have used the sewer as a wedge issue--even though an MP would have very little influence on the issue.

Rankin now has extended his lead to 821 votes after 205/256 polls. Clearly with an increase of 421 votes in just 5 polls, the polls coming in now are not from the wealthy areas. Starting to look more and more like an NDP victory.

In Victoria, the byelection is all about the sewer treatment--the Greens, Liberals and Conservatives want to back off on treatment, the NDP is the only party taking the difficult position of treatment--nobody it seems wants to pay more taxes. Shame on the Greens for using this issue. Murray Ranking started off the campaign on his opposition to Enbridge and reducing homelessness. The other parties have used the sewer as a wedge issue--even though an MP would have very little influence on the issue.

Yes you wonder if the localized short term gain that the Greens received by cynically disowning their committment to the environment may turn on them. We now have a Green party which likes to dump sewage into the ocean.

it is obvious the Greens appeal to wealthier constituents (because of their tax policy platform) It is no coincidence that EMay ran in one of the richest ridings in Canada (Saanich and the Gulf Islands)

Rankin now has extended his lead to 1,248 votes after 213/256 polls and a lead of 37.5% to 33.7% of the vote. The polls coming in now are increasingly favouring the NDP. Overcoming this lead will be almost impossible with only 43 polls remaining.

it is obvious the Greens appeal to wealthier constituents (because of their tax policy platform) It is no coincidence that EMay ran in one of the richest ridings in Canada (Saanich and the Gulf Islands)

Rankin now has extended his lead to 1,248 votes after 213/256 polls and a lead of 37.5% to 33.7% of the vote. The polls coming in now are increasingly favouring the NDP. Overcoming this lead will be almost impossible with only 43 polls remaining.

In Victoria, the byelection is all about the sewer treatment--the Greens, Liberals and Conservatives want to back off on treatment, the NDP is the only party taking the difficult position of treatment--nobody it seems wants to pay more taxes. Shame on the Greens for using this issue. Murray Ranking started off the campaign on his opposition to Enbridge and reducing homelessness. The other parties have used the sewer as a wedge issue--even though an MP would have very little influence on the issue.

Yes you wonder if the localized short term gain that the Greens received by cynically disowning their committment to the environment may turn on them. We now have a Green party which likes to dump sewage into the ocean.

Things are certainly getting rough between the Greens & the NDP. Elizabeth May & Peter Julian had a heated exchange on Twitter earlier in the day.

The Green proposal to shift the tax burden from income and corporate taxes to "green" taxes would greatly benefit the wealthy and therefore definitely appeal to them, especially when they can say they are doing for environmental reasons (although they don't want to pay for treating sewage in a city of 300,000 beyond the primary level, something that most towns of 5,000 do). While ocean currents may carry much of this away from the city, it is harming ocean species and much of it heads for nearby American municipalities. Believe me, these communities are not at all happy with how Victoria has got away with this for close to 100 years and i don't blame them. The NDP needs to start pointing out in a more forceful manner how this type of "Green" tax policy simply moves the costs of dealing with pollution from the rich to the middle class and poor and to other communities.

In Victoria, the byelection is all about the sewer treatment--the Greens, Liberals and Conservatives want to back off on treatment, the NDP is the only party taking the difficult position of treatment--nobody it seems wants to pay more taxes. Shame on the Greens for using this issue. Murray Ranking started off the campaign on his opposition to Enbridge and reducing homelessness. The other parties have used the sewer as a wedge issue--even though an MP would have very little influence on the issue.

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Yes you wonder if the localized short term gain that the Greens received by cynically disowning their committment to the environment may turn on them. We now have a Green party which likes to dump sewage into the ocean.

Things are certainly getting rough between the Greens & the NDP. Elizabeth May & Peter Julian had a heated exchange on Twitter earlier in the day.

May is very anti-NDP. She seems at times to be a stalking horse for the Libs. Maybe she resents the NDP beause they have the supporters that she feels she is entitled too. Or maybe her conservatism has had her develop a viseral dislike for the NDP but whatever it is, it is palpable

In Victoria, the byelection is all about the sewer treatment--the Greens, Liberals and Conservatives want to back off on treatment, the NDP is the only party taking the difficult position of treatment--nobody it seems wants to pay more taxes. Shame on the Greens for using this issue. Murray Ranking started off the campaign on his opposition to Enbridge and reducing homelessness. The other parties have used the sewer as a wedge issue--even though an MP would have very little influence on the issue.

.

Yes you wonder if the localized short term gain that the Greens received by cynically disowning their committment to the environment may turn on them. We now have a Green party which likes to dump sewage into the ocean.

Things are certainly getting rough between the Greens & the NDP. Elizabeth May & Peter Julian had a heated exchange on Twitter earlier in the day.

May is very anti-NDP. She seems at times to be a stalking horse for the Libs. Maybe she resents the NDP beause they have the supporters that she feels she is entitled too. Or maybe her conservatism has had her develop a viseral dislike for the NDP but whatever it is, it is palpable

She's not a stalking horse for the Libs - and that's going to be even less plausible after tonight in which it looks like the Green may have cost the Libs in Calgary Centre. Is she a stalking horse for the NDP? It looks like a lot of NDP voters in Calgary Centre voted Green, afterall why else did the NDP drop to 3.8% of the vote?

But seriously, rather than you or I claiming she is trying to help one party or another, I think the most likely explanation is that she is just following her own agenda and doing what she thinks is best, regardless of how it affects anyone else.

Rankin's lead is virtually constant changing from 1,248 to only 1,249 votes as the number of polls reporting increased from 213/256 to 230 polls and a lead of 37.7% to 34.2% of the vote over Galloway. Hard to see anyway Galloway could now win.

Let's just say that finishing in 1st place in BC, and in 2nd place in Ontario is a lot better, compared to finishing in 4th place in BC, and 3rd place in Ontario.

Let's just say that dramatically increasing your support in one riding (Calgary Centre) and staying basically the same in the other 2 (Victoria & Durham) is better than collapsing in 2 (Calgary Centre & Victoria) and only marginally increasing in 1 (Durham).

In Victoria, the byelection is all about the sewer treatment--the Greens, Liberals and Conservatives want to back off on treatment, the NDP is the only party taking the difficult position of treatment--nobody it seems wants to pay more taxes. Shame on the Greens for using this issue. Murray Ranking started off the campaign on his opposition to Enbridge and reducing homelessness. The other parties have used the sewer as a wedge issue--even though an MP would have very little influence on the issue.

.

Yes you wonder if the localized short term gain that the Greens received by cynically disowning their committment to the environment may turn on them. We now have a Green party which likes to dump sewage into the ocean.

Things are certainly getting rough between the Greens & the NDP. Elizabeth May & Peter Julian had a heated exchange on Twitter earlier in the day.

May is very anti-NDP. She seems at times to be a stalking horse for the Libs. Maybe she resents the NDP beause they have the supporters that she feels she is entitled too. Or maybe her conservatism has had her develop a viseral dislike for the NDP but whatever it is, it is palpable

She's not a stalking horse for the Libs - and that's going to be even less plausible after tonight in which it looks like the Green may have cost the Libs in Calgary Centre. Is she a stalking horse for the NDP? It looks like a lot of NDP voters in Calgary Centre voted Green, afterall why else did the NDP drop to 3.8% of the vote?

But seriously, rather than you or I claiming she is trying to help one party or another, I think the most likely explanation is that she is just following her own agenda and doing what she thinks is best, regardless of how it affects anyone else.

Come on debater! I gave several possibilities and then opened it up. You replied to one. You have also confused outcome with intention.

Debater, spin it any way you want. you guys should have done better, and you didn't. You need to break through in BC, because Alberta isn't about to go Lib. And you didn't. You know, if you keep it up, all that spinning is going to make you dizzy.

In Victoria, the byelection is all about the sewer treatment--the Greens, Liberals and Conservatives want to back off on treatment, the NDP is the only party taking the difficult position of treatment--nobody it seems wants to pay more taxes. Shame on the Greens for using this issue. Murray Ranking started off the campaign on his opposition to Enbridge and reducing homelessness. The other parties have used the sewer as a wedge issue--even though an MP would have very little influence on the issue.

.

Yes you wonder if the localized short term gain that the Greens received by cynically disowning their committment to the environment may turn on them. We now have a Green party which likes to dump sewage into the ocean.

Things are certainly getting rough between the Greens & the NDP. Elizabeth May & Peter Julian had a heated exchange on Twitter earlier in the day.

May is very anti-NDP. She seems at times to be a stalking horse for the Libs. Maybe she resents the NDP beause they have the supporters that she feels she is entitled too. Or maybe her conservatism has had her develop a viseral dislike for the NDP but whatever it is, it is palpable

She's not a stalking horse for the Libs - and that's going to be even less plausible after tonight in which it looks like the Green may have cost the Libs in Calgary Centre. Is she a stalking horse for the NDP? It looks like a lot of NDP voters in Calgary Centre voted Green, afterall why else did the NDP drop to 3.8% of the vote?

But seriously, rather than you or I claiming she is trying to help one party or another, I think the most likely explanation is that she is just following her own agenda and doing what she thinks is best, regardless of how it affects anyone else.

Come on debater! I gave several possibilities and then opened it up. You replied to one. You have also confused outcome with intention.

All I'm saying is that Elizabeth May is Elizabeth May. She has nothing to do with the Liberals or the NDP other than sometimes taking support away from both of them. Who knows what her future holds at this point.

Durham actually was the bellweather riding, the riding to watch in these by-elections, because of the importance on Ontario in a federal election, and the Trudeau Liberals have suffered another devastating blow in Ontario. They are not quite dead yet, but definitely it is another nail in their coffin.

Debater, spin it any way you want. you guys should have done better, and you didn't. You need to break through in BC, because Alberta isn't about to go Lib. And you didn't. You know, if you keep it up, all that spinning is going to make you dizzy.

I'm not spinning anything any more than you are. Shouldn't your party have done better tonight?

As I said above, NDP support dropped significantly in VICTORIA, fell to the bottom in CALGARY CENTRE to 3.8% and only marginally increased in DURHAM, despite having a much stronger candidate than in 2011.

In a moment of objectivity on another thread, you admitted yourself when you saw the VICTORIA results that they were not good for the NDP compared to what they should have done tonight. Questions will be asked about Mulcair.

Anyway, all 4 parties will claim a win tomorrow! That's the politics of all this. No one had the perfect result they wanted.

May hates the NDP. If she got the right offer, she'd cross the floor and sit as a Lib. If the LPC wins government, watch for her to cross the floor and become minister of the environment in a Trudeau government. Like the Libs, she is in it for herself. It has nothing with governing in the interests of the people. Run left, govern right. Nothing will change.

Durham actually was the bellweather riding, the riding to watch in these by-elections, because of the importance on Ontario in a federal election, and the Trudeau Liberals have suffered another devastating blow in Ontario. They are not quite dead yet, but definitely it is another nail in their coffin.

In Central Ontario’s Durham riding, Conservative Erin O’Toole was out to an early lead with more than 50 per cent of votes cast for him so far, ahead of New Democrat Larry O’Connor’s 26 per cent.

Liberal challenger Grant Humes trailed in third place with more than a third of votes already tallied, marking a dynamic shift in a riding where Liberal-Conservative horse races were the norm.

Preliminary election results seem confirm earlier polls indicating voters will be sending parliamentarians wearing the same partisan sweaters back to Ottawa. Presumably then, two more Conservatives and one New Democrat will return to the House of Commons, an outcome that would alter neither the party standings nor the political dynamic.

Let's just say that finishing in 1st place in BC, and in 2nd place in Ontario is a lot better, compared to finishing in 4th place in BC, and 3rd place in Ontario.

Let's just say that dramatically increasing your support in one riding (Calgary Centre) and staying basically the same in the other 2 (Victoria & Durham) is better than collapsing in 2 (Calgary Centre & Victoria) and only marginally increasing in 1 (Durham).

Strange, Debater, that you call tonight's results an increase in support, when the Liberals held Durham and Victoria before the Conservatives, and yet tonight could only manage a 4th place finish in Victoria and 3rd in Durham.

It's that kind of thinking that helped to create the $600 billion debt we're up to right now.

Durham actually was the bellweather riding, the riding to watch in these by-elections, because of the importance on Ontario in a federal election, and the Trudeau Liberals have suffered another devastating blow in Ontario. They are not quite dead yet, but definitely it is another nail in their coffin.

Debater, spin it any way you want. you guys should have done better, and you didn't. You need to break through in BC, because Alberta isn't about to go Lib. And you didn't. You know, if you keep it up, all that spinning is going to make you dizzy.

I'm not spinning anything any more than you are. Shouldn't your party have done better tonight?

As I said above, NDP support dropped significantly in VICTORIA, fell to the bottom in CALGARY CENTRE to 3.8% and only marginally increased in DURHAM, despite having a much stronger candidate than in 2011.

In a moment of objectivity on another thread, you admitted yourself when you saw the VICTORIA results that they were not good for the NDP compared to what they should have done tonight. Questions will be asked about Mulcair.

Anyway, all 4 parties will claim a win tomorrow! That's the politics of all this. No one had the perfect result they wanted.

Yep, we should have done better. I am not discounting that. But you guys are supposed to be "Canada's Natural Governing Party". North Report has already explained, and you have already ignored why the Ontario result was so bad. You guys will never break through in Alberta, and unless you can make in roads in BC, you are going no where. And besides, you guys were running on Trudeau's coat tails and it did you no good. Nope, as bad as the results were in some way for the NDP, as others have explained better then I, they were worse for the Libs. Everyone here, except you, knows it.

As I said before, all that spinning is going to make you dizzy. Justin has NO coat tails.

May hates the NDP. If she got the right offer, she'd cross the floor and sit as a Lib. If the LPC wins government, watch for her to cross the floor and become minister of the environment in a Trudeau government. Like the Libs, she is in it for herself. It has nothing with governing in the interests of the people. Run left, govern right. Nothing will change.

It must be late - I think I'm hallucinating. How can that be right? I thought the Liberals were finished had no chance of ever forming a goverment again? So how could there by a Trudeau government for May to be a part of?

Anyway, who knows whether either the Liberals or the NDP will form a government. If the vote splits the right way, Harper may win the next election again. In any event, May shouldn't flatter herself and assume she would get any offers from the Liberals - I don't think they're happy with her after tonight's Green results in Calgary Centre.

Good night for now, Arthur. I may check in again in December if there's more news. Have to get back to other things now . . .