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11/17/2014

Oscar Predictions: Round 3 - Christmas Comes Eary?

Selma

Christmas comes early, which is a blessing for Oscar fans in
a year that seems particularly back-loaded. 2014 has ample strong films to
offer, but this year’s race is too busy and too close to call, especially with
so many seemingly viable contenders skipping the fall festival circuit and
opening on Christmas Day. Into the Woods,
Unbroken, Big Eyes, Selma, and American Sniper could presumably count
for half the Best Picture line-up, and only a week ago it seemed like few of us
could suss out the awards race until the time came to carve the turkey.

Luckily, though, Selma
screened in its (not fully complete) entirely at the AFI fest earlier this
month instead of as the 30-minute sneak peek that was originally slated. Clint
Eastwood’s American Sniper played
that same day at AFI as the festival’s “secret screening,” while JC Chandor’s A Most Violent Year kicked off the AFI
awards chatter and then Tim Burton’s Big
Eyes, long presumed an Oscar hopeful for Amy Adams, screened in LA later in
the week. At least two of these films are clear and one remains a question mark,
while one is on the way out.

Selma’s strong
reception at AFI bodes well for the crowded Christmas Day release, since the
hype will give the comparatively smaller film the boost it needs. Selma’s also bound to receive thunderous
support at the box office from African Americans, who continually prove that
there is a demand to see diverse stars and stories by showing up at the theatre
on opening weekend and making sleeper hits out of even the most under-the-radar
films. (E.g. the work of Tyler Perry.) Add the specialty/smarthouse audiences
and awards-season hype, and Selma
could handily gain the foothold that I (and others) assumed it would lose
amidst bigger and louder films.

American Sniper

Clint Eastwood’s American
Sniper is still a bit murky compared to Selma,
although the film also won considerable praise. The best praise for American Sniper isn’t necessarily enough
for Mr. Eastwood to set his sights on Oscar number five, since opinions on the
film vary so much with some critics call it Eastwood’s “best in a number of years” to “bythe numbers and predictable,” and even likening the film to “watching a suspenseful but highly repetitive video game.” In a strong year that will
has the biggest Christmas glut in recent memory. Recall that established
contenders Wild, Foxcatcher, and The Imitation
game will be expanding then while films like Still Alice and Mr. Turner,
already the focus of conversation, will be reaping awards benefits in circles
where people can actually see the films. Sniper,
at the very least, seems to have deemed Clint after the disastrous Jersey Boys.

Amy Adams in Big Eyes. Photo: eOne Films.

Big Eyes

Well, it seems as if 2014 won’t be the battle between the
overdue redheads. Word on Tim Burton’s Big
Eyes isn’t especially good and while the reviews are almost universally kind to Amy Adams, they don’t offer the kind of enthusiasm that brings an Oscar.
(Even the industry’s biggest trade makes a paint by numbers shot at Burton’s film.) Still, most commentators end on an optimistic note for Amy Adams by citing the dearth of Best Actress
contenders beyond Julianne Moore, Reese Witherspoon, Rosamund Pike, and
Felicity Jones, so there’s still hope for Adams to hang around on the outskirts
and maybe land another nomination. Although Hilary Swank’s faring a bit better with The Homesman, which has played consistently well(ish) at festivals. Expect Big Eyes to be one of those Hyde Park on Hudson’s also-rans that
earns a Golden Globe nomination and little else.

A Most Violent Year. Courtesy of Elevation Pictures

A Most Violent Year

Most heads were looking at AFI to see what would happen with
JC Chandor’s A Most Violent Year,
since the latest film from the maverick All
is Lost director was the major world premiere of the festival. It, like Selma, drew some major rave reviews
with especially strong props for Oscar Isaac and Jessica Chastain, the latter of whom probably has
the better chance for a nomination given the comparative thinness of the Best
Supporting Actress race to the Best Actor field. Chastain finds herself in an
awkward position, though, since her strongly praised work in Interstellar once again puts her in
direct competition with herself. Chastain is one of the most prolific actors of
the moment, so she’s no stranger to handling multiple commitments, but the
awards race of 2014 features an unfortunate blip in the report that Interstellar director Christopher Nolan
has contractually barred Chastain from campaigning for any film but his. This
puts Chastain and A Most Violent Year
in a sticky situation since, as the New York Times explains, she’s the biggest star in the comparably
smaller film, so Violent arguably
needs her help to reach audiences. The critics who have seen Violent are generally behind the film,
though, and distributor A24 is proving itself one of the shrewdest boutique
players in the US. Violent marks
their first legit chance to enter the Oscar race, and the sassy clip they
recently released showcasing Chastain and only Chastain amidst the Interstellar buzz shows that they demand
respect.

Into the Woods

Finally, the two biggest Christmas releases, Into the Woods and Unbroken, still feel like heavy players even though they have yet
to screen. Unbroken premieres in
Australia on November 17th, so we’ll cease speculation until then,
but it’s a smart move on Angelina Jolie to open the film away from Oscar
onlookers and let Unbroken be
assessed on its own merit. The recently released final trailer for Into the Woods, alternatively, looks
very promising, especially Meryl Streep’s performance and the arts/crafts work,
but the trailer hardly showcases anything for Emily Blunt, who will be
competing as the film’s lead in a weak field, which looks to be even weaker now
that Big Eyes has premiered. The good
news, though, is that Roadside Attractions is releasing Canada’s Oscar bid Mommyin 2014 after all, so Anne Dorval
might actually have a chance to break into the race!