Line movement: The Patriots opened as 4.5-point home favorites, were immediately bet up to -5, but were nudged back down to -4.5 later last Sunday night. Texans money dropped the line to Pats - 4 on Monday, to - 3.5 by Tuesday, and to -3.5 (even) on Friday. Action on New England pushed it back up to -4 Sunday, but by Monday, the line is up to -5.5. The total dropped from 51.5 to 51, but OVER money on Monday pushed it up to 52.5.

Recent meetings:

1/3/10 Texans 34-27 (-7) at Houston

Series trends:

HOUSTON is 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games following a ATS win.

HOUSTON is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games.

HOUSTON is 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games following a SU win.

HOUSTON is 11-5-2 ATS in their last 18 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

HOUSTON is 0-4 ATS in its last four Monday games.

NEW ENGLAND is 4-0 ATS in its last four Monday games.

NEW ENGLAND is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a ATS loss.

NEW ENGLAND is 2-5 ATS in its last seven home games.

NEW ENGLAND is 1-4 ATS in its last five games in December.

Over is 25-8 in NEW ENGLAND's last 33 games following a SU win.

Texans’ outlook: Houston has already won at Chicago in what many believed, at the time, was a Super Bowl preview. This one could be the AFC Championship preview. The Texans clinched a playoff spot with their sixth straight win last week, and their 11 wins overall is a franchise record. J.J. Watt paced Houston to a 24-10 win at Tennessee last week. Watt is the runaway favorite for defensive player of the year. Matt Schaub has won 15 of his last 16 games under center.

Texans’ key injuries:

TE Garrett Graham (head) questionable

CB Johnathan Joseph (hamstring) questionable

LB Bradie James (hamstring) questionable

Patriots’ outlook: New England is riding a six-game winning streak and wrapped up its fourth straight AFC East title with a sluggish win at Miami last week. The Patriots lead the NFL in scoring and have overcome a bevy of injuries. WR Julian Edelman is the latest to land on the injured reserve list with a foot injury. Tom Brady threw one TD pass last week to extend his NFL-long streak of at least one scoring pass in 44 straight games. He’ll most likely have to air it out again on Monday against the Texans’ stingy run defense.

Patriots’ key injuries:

WR Julian Edelman (foot) IR

LG Logan Mankins (hip) questionable

DE Chandler Jones (ankle) questionable

TE Rob Gronkowski (arm) out

What The Linemakers are saying: The Patriots have won 10 of their past 11 Monday night games and covered their last four. While the Texans have been outstanding on the road, the Patriots are an NFL-best 71-14 at home since 2002. The Texans are also playing their third straight road game. They won the first two, but only five teams since 2000 have won three straight road games. The Texans blitz more than anyone else in the league, and Tom Brady is the wrong quarterback to consistently send extra defenders against — he has tossed 15 of his 25 touchdown passes this season when opponents try to throw the kitchen sink at him.

In addition to believing the Patriots will cover on Monday night, we also think the game should fly OVER the posted total of 51 points. If Henne and Stafford can combine to put up 68 points against the Texans' defense within the past three weeks, what will Brady do at home? The Patriots have set a fast pace in nine of their past 10 games. Last week’s 23-16 win at Miami stopped a streak of nine straight OVERs posted by the Patriots. In six of the past 10 weeks, the Patriots covering-to-the-OVER combination has hit six times, a nice profit margin, as two-team parlays pay out at 13-to-5 odds.