Commodore Perry wrote:The thing about Ubaldo, is that Ubaldo didn't fix Ubaldo. A very patient and coddling Indians coaching staff did. And that still took 2 years.

When he takes the mound for the big market team that will gamble on him, he will fall apart again.

So where's the guarantee that he would remain "fixed" if he loyally stayed here?

Exactly. As far as I'm concerned, I don't want him to be "loyal". That 2nd half of the season sure was great, but after suffering through the rest of Ubaldo's stay in CLE, I'll take the 1st round pick and try to forget that whole trade ever happened.

Not making the argument he would remain fixed here. Not making the argument he should be loyal and stay.

I think we may be surprised by the hesitancy of some teams to go for a guy that has that QO tag on him. The way the draft is structured now with allocated slot money only a small handful of teams can afford to give up that golden egg. And those teams are typically maxed out right now anyway (Doyers, Angels, Yankees, BoSux).

If you're the Blue Jays or ChiSux or any other med-high payroll team are you really willing to give up all that draft gold for a player with a tenuous track record? I'd pass.

A team like the Tribe has a better bet of resigning him than we think. Mostly because of that draft slot money.

/Although I could see him going to a team like the Cubs that is looking to make major leaps forward and has all the money in the world.

I think a guy like Kazmir would be a better pick for the Cubs. Shorter contract length (don't see him getting more than 2 guaranteed), plus he's a lefty. He pitches well for them in the first half, they could flip him for controllable prospects, which is their current operating philosophy.

A middle of the road team with a protected pick could take a shot at Jimenez. A place like Seattle or San Diego. A pitcher-friendly park on a team without many big contract players that is in need of starting pitching. Hard to see a contender shelling out big cash and a pick for a question mark, but who knows.

Regarding Kazmir, Fangraphs did a crowdsourcing project for free agent salaries and Kazmir was 2/17. I don't see how the Indians couldn't match something like that. I think Kazmir comes back unless somebody gives him a guaranteed deal of 3/30 or something. The Indians want him back, I think he wants to be here because he knows there's no immediate competition to his job if he struggles, and he may have a sense of loyalty since the Indians gave him a chance. That might be optimism on my part, but the Indians stayed with him through the Opening Day injury, his early season struggles, and managed his arm in a way that would protect both his future and the team.

I think the Cubs will definitely be involved. A lot of teams will be involved on Kazmir with very similar contract offers. No idea what the deciding factor will be, but I think the Indians giving him a vesting option based on innings pitched would help.

A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe

Ubaldo officially walks away. Good luck to him. It was a shame to see him loose his footing and completely fall off the mountain, just to climb part of the way back up. He really worked hard to get back to this point. I hope he finds success somewhere.

A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe

skatingtripods wrote:Ubaldo officially walks away. Good luck to him. It was a shame to see him loose his footing and completely fall off the mountain, just to climb part of the way back up. He really worked hard to get back to this point. I hope he finds success somewhere.

I can't say I hope he finds success. I hope he finds a big contract and financial security and happiness and health, but I don't care that he ever wins 10 games in a season again.

I hope the compensation pick has a better career than Alex White or Drew Pomeranz though.

skatingtripods wrote:Ubaldo officially walks away. Good luck to him. It was a shame to see him loose his footing and completely fall off the mountain, just to climb part of the way back up. He really worked hard to get back to this point. I hope he finds success somewhere.

I can't say I hope he finds success. I hope he finds a big contract and financial security and happiness and health, but I don't care that he ever wins 10 games in a season again.

I hope the compensation pick has a better career than Alex White or Drew Pomeranz though.

I hold no animosity towards him. I felt bad for him watching him get booed off the mound and seeing that look in his eyes in interviews. He was totally lost.

I hope he finds success. Preferably in the National League, but I hope he lives up to his new contract.

Would be great if the compensation pick becomes something.

A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe

skatingtripods wrote:Ubaldo officially walks away. Good luck to him. It was a shame to see him loose his footing and completely fall off the mountain, just to climb part of the way back up. He really worked hard to get back to this point. I hope he finds success somewhere.

I can't say I hope he finds success. I hope he finds a big contract and financial security and happiness and health, but I don't care that he ever wins 10 games in a season again.

I hope the compensation pick has a better career than Alex White or Drew Pomeranz though.

I hold no animosity towards him. I felt bad for him watching him get booed off the mound and seeing that look in his eyes in interviews. He was totally lost.

I hope he finds success. Preferably in the National League, but I hope he lives up to his new contract.

Would be great if the compensation pick becomes something.

Considering our 1st round draft slot in the bottom half, that compensation pick money can be used to draft an "expensive" guy a la Wacha who falls due to teams afraid to sign him. At least that's how I'd use it.

This move is a defeat. This is yet another example of Cleveland failing to develop talent. Santana is not a top tier first baseman. And this tells me that we aren't going to pick up a top tier first baseman.

Yay.

This team needs legitimate threats and I don't know where we're going to get them.

And don't take this to mean that I don't like the move. I like the move given that it probably is the best thing for the club right now. But it signals that we yet again failed to develop elite talent. We couldn't get Santana to be a catcher so now he gets to be an average 1B.

Santana's move out of the starting catcher role doesn't come without a lot of effort on the Indians' part. They brought in Sandy Alomar Jr. to help Santana with the fundamentals of the position. It's not his natural position. Furthermore, the Indians aren't responsible for Santana's laziness. Only one person can change that and he doesn't seem to want to.

No, he's not a good first baseman either. But he should hurt us less defensively over there than behind the plate.

A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe

It's the best move considering the situations. Yes, the Indians failure's to develop talent is indeed a problem, but that being with the other holes to fill and contracts to extend it's the right move.

Gomes is clearly better behind the plate than Santana. Santana is clearly a better DH than the alternatives and Francona clearly knows how to get the best out of a line-up in daily match ups.

skatingtripods wrote:Santana's bat still plays above average at first base.

Santana's move out of the starting catcher role doesn't come without a lot of effort on the Indians' part. They brought in Sandy Alomar Jr. to help Santana with the fundamentals of the position. It's not his natural position. Furthermore, the Indians aren't responsible for Santana's laziness. Only one person can change that and he doesn't seem to want to.

No, he's not a good first baseman either. But he should hurt us less defensively over there than behind the plate.

Nothing to argue with there. It's just so frustrating to look back at the offensive prospects of the last several years and realize that not one has lived up to potential. That thought makes me doubt that we can sustain real success, which is even more frustrating.

skatingtripods wrote:Santana's bat still plays above average at first base.

Santana's move out of the starting catcher role doesn't come without a lot of effort on the Indians' part. They brought in Sandy Alomar Jr. to help Santana with the fundamentals of the position. It's not his natural position. Furthermore, the Indians aren't responsible for Santana's laziness. Only one person can change that and he doesn't seem to want to.

No, he's not a good first baseman either. But he should hurt us less defensively over there than behind the plate.

Nothing to argue with there. It's just so frustrating to look back at the offensive prospects of the last several years and realize that not one has lived up to potential. That thought makes me doubt that we can sustain real success, which is even more frustrating.

I think Santana has lived up to his offensive potential. He's averaged 22 HR over the last three years and he has a career .367 OBP, despite a batting average in the .250s. Sometimes you'd like to see him a little bit more aggressive, but you really don't want him to change his approach too much.

He'll never really hit for a high average because he works so deep in counts, so he has to protect with two strikes. 409 of his plate appearances in 2013 ended with either three balls or two strikes (subtracted full counts). That's 64% of his plate appearances. So in those situations, he's usually looking to walk or having to protect.

It feels like he should have the potential to do more, but he's a very valuable offensive player already.

A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe

skatingtripods wrote:Santana's bat still plays above average at first base.

Santana's move out of the starting catcher role doesn't come without a lot of effort on the Indians' part. They brought in Sandy Alomar Jr. to help Santana with the fundamentals of the position. It's not his natural position. Furthermore, the Indians aren't responsible for Santana's laziness. Only one person can change that and he doesn't seem to want to.

No, he's not a good first baseman either. But he should hurt us less defensively over there than behind the plate.

Nothing to argue with there. It's just so frustrating to look back at the offensive prospects of the last several years and realize that not one has lived up to potential. That thought makes me doubt that we can sustain real success, which is even more frustrating.

I think Santana has lived up to his offensive potential. He's averaged 22 HR over the last three years and he has a career .367 OBP, despite a batting average in the .250s. Sometimes you'd like to see him a little bit more aggressive, but you really don't want him to change his approach too much.

He'll never really hit for a high average because he works so deep in counts, so he has to protect with two strikes. 409 of his plate appearances in 2013 ended with either three balls or two strikes (subtracted full counts). That's 64% of his plate appearances. So in those situations, he's usually looking to walk or having to protect.

It feels like he should have the potential to do more, but he's a very valuable offensive player already.

Santana is fine from an overall offensive player standpoint. I agree with you there. It's not his fault he's miscast as a middle of the order hitter on a team that needs him to live there (much in the way everyone 3-5 in the Indians lineup is miscast as a 3-5 hitter).

But, BUT, I think your definition of "protect" is different than mine. Hitting with 2 strikes or deep in counts isn't protecting. That would require a shorter swing and a willingness to put the ball in play a lot more. He strikes out 35% of the time the count gets to two strikes over the course of his career and 33% last year. A guy like Pedroia (who was over 40% career wise) was at 20% last season. That, to me, is a conscious effort being made to 'protect' and shorten up, make contact, go the other way,whatever.

I don't "see" Santana's approach change with 2-strikes.

And it's something that he could consciously do if he wanted to do it and work at it. Which brings us back to the 'work' thing.

peeker643 wrote:Santana is fine from an overall offensive player standpoint. I agree with you there. It's not his fault he's miscast as a middle of the order hitter on a team that needs him to live there (much in the way everyone 3-5 in the Indians lineup is miscast as a 3-5 hitter).

Realistically, and I know Francona wouldn't do this, Santana should bat second because of the high OBP. I get the bat control, move runners along argument, but optimally, he'd bat first or second. Since I know he won't bat first, second is the best place for him.

But, BUT, I think your definition of "protect" is different than mine. Hitting with 2 strikes or deep in counts isn't protecting. That would require a shorter swing and a willingness to put the ball in play a lot more. He strikes out 35% of the time the count gets to two strikes over the course of his career and 33% last year. A guy like Pedroia (who was over 40% career wise) was at 20% last season. That, to me, is a conscious effort being made to 'protect' and shorten up, make contact, go the other way,whatever.

I don't "see" Santana's approach change with 2-strikes.

And it's something that he could consciously do if he wanted to do it and work at it. Which brings us back to the 'work' thing.

I get what you're saying. Santana's approach is entirely about selectivity. With two strikes, that approach is taken away and he's not a good enough contact hitter to compensate. I think we're in agreement, but I didn't elaborate on my opinion.

He doesn't adjust with two strikes, you're right. He doesn't use the whole field enough. That's why I said he'd never be a high-average hitter.

Among qualified hitters, Santana had the 11th-highest number of plate appearances that ended in a pulled ball in play last season (221), but the 44th-highest batting average.

Out of 287 players with at least 50 plate appearances ending in hitting the ball to the opposite field, Santana ranked tied for 221th (63 PA).

(Random fact, Jason Kipnis had the highest batting average to the opposite field of any hitter last season.)

A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe

There was that beautiful stretch just before the All-Star break where he was peppering the opposite field wall with line drives. He even did it during the AS game. I think he hit well over .400 during that stretch. I hope he finds it again next season and holds it.

peeker643 wrote:It's not his fault he's miscast as a middle of the order hitter on a team that needs him to live there (much in the way everyone 3-5 in the Indians lineup is miscast as a 3-5 hitter).

The average MLB team had a .799 OPS from the #3 spot, .788 from the #4 spot, and .741 from the #5 spot, even before we adjust for the fact that Progressive has become a pitcher's park, Santana easily topped all these with a .832 OPS. His 137 OPS+ ranked 10th best in the AL. Dude is a middle of the order hitter.

peeker643 wrote:It's not his fault he's miscast as a middle of the order hitter on a team that needs him to live there (much in the way everyone 3-5 in the Indians lineup is miscast as a 3-5 hitter).

The average MLB team had a .799 OPS from the #3 spot, .788 from the #4 spot, and .741 from the #5 spot, even before we adjust for the fact that Progressive has become a pitcher's park, Santana easily topped all these with a .832 OPS. His 137 OPS+ ranked 10th best in the AL. Dude is a middle of the order hitter.

Yeah, he's probably the one guy on the roster with middle of the order creds, I'll say that. Miscast is the wrong word. Let's just say my perception is he doesn't have a high baseball IQ which to me translates into him doing less with more talent than maybe he should.

Indians reportedly taking a gamble on David Murphy, formerly with the Rangers. Expected to be a 2-year deal in the $10M range. Coming off very bad year, but career .816 OPS against LHP. Home/road splits are about what you'd expect with Arlington.

Re-thinking my initial opinion of the move. Figure Murphy and Raburn platoon in RF. Santana, Giambi, Raburn all in mix for DH at bats.

Between Murphy and Raburn, you could put out a 3-3.5 win RF without either guy having to have a ridiculous season. Play to their strengths. Serviceable defensively (Murphy's an above avg LF, slightly above avg RF).

I like this. BABIP was terribly low last season. Around league average bat on road with 100 wRC+. Should be better.

A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe

skatingtripods wrote:Indians reportedly taking a gamble on David Murphy, formerly with the Rangers. Expected to be a 2-year deal in the $10M range. Coming off very bad year, but career .816 OPS against LHP. Home/road splits are about what you'd expect with Arlington.

Re-thinking my initial opinion of the move. Figure Murphy and Raburn platoon in RF. Santana, Giambi, Raburn all in mix for DH at bats.

Between Murphy and Raburn, you could put out a 3-3.5 win RF without either guy having to have a ridiculous season. Play to their strengths. Serviceable defensively (Murphy's an above avg LF, slightly above avg RF).

I like this. BABIP was terribly low last season. Around league average bat on road with 100 wRC+. Should be better.

Done deal. Does this mean Stubbs is gone? Or does he still have options?

skatingtripods wrote:Indians reportedly taking a gamble on David Murphy, formerly with the Rangers. Expected to be a 2-year deal in the $10M range. Coming off very bad year, but career .816 OPS against LHP. Home/road splits are about what you'd expect with Arlington.

Re-thinking my initial opinion of the move. Figure Murphy and Raburn platoon in RF. Santana, Giambi, Raburn all in mix for DH at bats.

Between Murphy and Raburn, you could put out a 3-3.5 win RF without either guy having to have a ridiculous season. Play to their strengths. Serviceable defensively (Murphy's an above avg LF, slightly above avg RF).

I like this. BABIP was terribly low last season. Around league average bat on road with 100 wRC+. Should be better.

Done deal. Does this mean Stubbs is gone? Or does he still have options?

I think Stubbs still has options (in fact, looking at his career without detailed transaction history leads me to believe he might have all 3 option years remaining). But, he's due another arbitration raise so, yeah you'd assume his time has come to an end - either by trade or non-tender.

I guess, if you really put your conspiracy theorist hat on, you could speculate that signing Murphy could be a sign they're looking to trade Bourn to free payroll to acquire some pitching. That way, you could keep Stubbs and platoon him and Murphy and/or Brantley in CF, I guess.

Yeah, I like it, too. It's not a huge impact move like what they did last offseason (hopefully, that's still coming), but Murphy is a nice bounce back candidate, and if you hide his LHP deficiencies by platooning him with Raburn, he could potentially put up some decent numbers. I'm not getting any Dellucci/Michaels vibes from this potential pairing, that's for sure.

My only concern about this signing is that it all but signals we won't be in the mix for one of the few big bats on the free agent market like Beltran or (maybe more realistically) Hart. The 1B/RF/DH mix was probably our best bet to improve the offense, but there are too many players (Swisher, Santana, Raburn, Murphy) for them to bring in a full-time middle-of-the-order hitter now unless someone goes.

Adverb Harry wrote:My only concern about this signing is that it all but signals we won't be in the mix for one of the few big bats on the free agent market like Beltran or (maybe more realistically) Hart. The 1B/RF/DH mix was probably our best bet to improve the offense, but there are too many players (Swisher, Santana, Raburn, Murphy) for them to bring in a full-time middle-of-the-order hitter now unless someone goes.

Antonetti said he was looking for a left handed complementary bat. This would be it. I don't think this impacts their other potential moves. Given the money that they gave Murphy, it seems that a Stubbs non-tender/trade or a Bourn trade are serious possibilities.

We did kick the tires on Beltran, at least I think I remember seeing us mentioned. But Beltran has no reason to come here.

I think they're still searching for a complement to Chisenhall because they believe there's hope left for him. My Chisenhall opinions are pretty well-documented, but it's hard to find a 3B at a reasonable price that can both hit and field.

One guy who seems to be pretty on the ball, Steve Kinsella, a writer for WahoosOnFirst, thinks that the Indians will take a hard look at Phil Hughes to compete for the vacant rotation spot now that Josh Johnson and Tim Hudson are both off the market. FWIW, I'd have LOVED Johnson at 1 year, 8M.

Edit: Numbers on Murphy are 2/12, with an option for a 3rd year.

Between Murphy and Raburn (2.25M), if you can get a 3-3.5 win RF for 8.25M, that's really good market value. I recently saw an article by Lewis Pollis (former Indians front office intern, SABR Award winner) about wins costing 7M in FA, not the traditional 5-5.5M originally thought. He took some backlash for the article and his methodology, but even if both sides are off, and wins are 6-6.5M, the Indians could have quite a RF bargain, as much as we all hate the notion of platoons.

A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe

WiscTribeFan wrote:You'd think with Raburn, Murphy, Bourn, Swisher, Brantley and Stubbs, someone is going to have to go, even with playing them at DH and Swisher at 1B. That's quite a log-jam of players.

I see Stubbs getting dealt, if only for the fact that Bourn is probably untradeable with his contract, at least not without us picking up a fair amount of it.

I don't think Bourn is untradeable, but his value isn't what it would have been if he had a better season. With the price now at 15M, he still only has to be about a 2.5 WAR player to be worth the yearly deal. Last year was his first season below 3.7 WAR since 2009.

Stubbs is easier to move, though. I think you can get a Double-A arm with upside for him. The Mets should be looking hard at Stubbs and they have some young pitching that's very intriguing. Some hard throwers in their system. Problem is, they'll be terrible, especially if Harvey can't pitch.

Stubbs would be a good fit in Seattle. Good outfield for his skill set and they're stocked with left handed bats. A right handed stick would be good for them. Worst team in OF defensive runs saved last season. By 24 runs.

A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe

I think he is tradeable if we were willing to put money into the deal and/or not expect a great return. At $7M his production was fine. At nearly double that next year, I don't see a lot of takers. Maybe I'm wrong on that. We shall see.

WiscTribeFan wrote:I think he is tradeable if we were willing to put money into the deal and/or not expect a great return. At $7M his production was fine. At nearly double that next year, I don't see a lot of takers. Maybe I'm wrong on that. We shall see.

Yes, my mistake, 13.5M next year for Bourn. So 2.5 WAR would be above market value. That should be doable. He never really got on track last year with the hand injury and various other ailments. Plus first year in the AL. I'm looking for a 3 WAR season from Bourn, which would be great value at 13.5. Somebody else will think so as well and may pony up some nice assets for Bourn.

A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe

Kinsler for Fielder. Tigers probably eating some of Fielder's contract. Another smart move by Dombrowski. Kinsler fills a huge need for the Tigers and they can move Miggy to 1B now and he won't have to deal with the physical strain of playing 3B.

Can't believe somebody would take that Fielder contract.

Edit: Tigers sending 30M. Difference in owed salary between the two was over 100M.

A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe

skatingtripods wrote:Kinsler for Fielder. Tigers probably eating some of Fielder's contract. Another smart move by Dombrowski. Kinsler fills a huge need for the Tigers and they can move Miggy to 1B now and he won't have to deal with the physical strain of playing 3B.

Can't believe somebody would take that Fielder contract.

Edit: Tigers sending 30M. Difference in owed salary between the two was over 100M.

Great deal for Detroit. Save on salary, get Miggy back to first, fill a hole at second... They just keep moving the goalposts on us.

Galley Boys are slop on top of a so-so burger and a bun you coulde get from a Covneninet food mart generic pack. They the Antoine Joubert of burgers; soft, sloppy, oozing grease and cheap sauce and extremely overrated by a biased fan base. Proof that if you throw enough cheap sauce shit on a burger you still can't overcome the lame burger. -JB

skatingtripods wrote:Indians reportedly taking a gamble on David Murphy, formerly with the Rangers. Expected to be a 2-year deal in the $10M range. Coming off very bad year, but career .816 OPS against LHP. Home/road splits are about what you'd expect with Arlington.

Re-thinking my initial opinion of the move. Figure Murphy and Raburn platoon in RF. Santana, Giambi, Raburn all in mix for DH at bats.

Between Murphy and Raburn, you could put out a 3-3.5 win RF without either guy having to have a ridiculous season. Play to their strengths. Serviceable defensively (Murphy's an above avg LF, slightly above avg RF).

I like this. BABIP was terribly low last season. Around league average bat on road with 100 wRC+. Should be better.

It's a very good, astute pickup. He clobbers RHP and is a good defender. with Raburn as the 4th OF we have a really strong OF corp even if it is light on HRs.

I hear we are strong contenders for Hudson too. Would love that addition to the rotation, and if we can re-sign Kazmir I'd be ecstatic

"There is but one thing of real value: to cultivate truth and justice and to live without anger in the midst of lying and unjust men"

British_Pharaoh wrote:I hear we are strong contenders for Hudson too. Would love that addition to the rotation, and if we can re-sign Kazmir I'd be ecstatic

Hudson's already signed for the Giants - 2 years, $23m.

Pitcher market is strange so far. 2/23 for Hudson, 2/35 for Lincecum, yet Josh Johnson only gets 1/8 from San Diego, and I think he's the best bet of the three. Hudson's 55% ground balls, so pitching in SF isn't a huge advantage. I'm not sure he can stay healthy throughout the year. 2800 innings and he'll be 39 in July.

Loved the Johnson signing for SD. I was actually hoping the Indians would take a chance. At 8M, I'm a little surprised they didn't. Much better gamble than 7M on Brett Myers last season.

The Indians may kick the tires on Phil Hughes, but I think they'll wait around and see who's left in February unless they trade Stubbs/Cabrera for pitching.

A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe

Yeah, the Tigers really made a strong move that is very beneficial to them long-term. Gets Cabrera away from 3B, opens a spot for top prospect Nick Castellanos there, gets them out of a long-term contract they would be seriously regretting in a few years, and frees up salary that'll be handy for resigning Scherzer and/or Cabrera. Got to like it if you're a Tigers fan. Which means I hate it as an Indians fan.