@shepi13, yes, the official FIDE rating list, not the unofficial live list, is what counts for records, but if Carlsen cared enough about not risking the record, he could just take a break for a few months the instant his live rating passes the record and wait for the next FIDE list to come out.

@Powerlevel_9001, yeah, Caruana is extremely impressive. I think he'll pretty soon be among the top three, and the next few years will feature Carlsen at the top, with Aronian and Caruana jockeying back and forth for 2nd and 3rd, with these three being the only three 2800+ GMs for a while, and a sizable gap between them and the rest of the top 10.

@corpsporc, Yes, I might be wrong on "only three 2800+ GMs" for a while. Kramnik and maybe one or two others might break 2800 in the near future and stay there, but I feel more confident that Carlsen, Aronian and Caruana will be in their own private tier.

If Kramnik and a couple of other people manage to break 2800 and stay there, then 2850 will become the new 2800, and it'll just be Carlsen, Aronian, and Caruana there ;-).

@shepi13, yes, the official FIDE rating list, not the unofficial live list, is what counts for records, but if Carlsen cared enough about not risking the record, he could just take a break for a few months the instant his live rating passes the record and wait for the next FIDE list to come out.

@Powerlevel_9001, yeah, Caruana is extremely impressive. I think he'll pretty soon be among the top three, and the next few years will feature Carlsen at the top, with Aronian and Caruana jockeying back and forth for 2nd and 3rd, with these three being the only three 2800+ GMs for a while, and a sizable gap between them and the rest of the top 10.

Carlsen would find it difficult to sit on a rating by not playing. He is committed to many events as much as a year ahead of time, and of course the WC cycle (assuming he's taught FIDE he won't tolerate mid-cycle changes this time). To drop out of those would damage his value to organizers.

But Carlsen doesn't seem to give a rat's patootie about any of that stuff. He plays chess because it interests him. By happy coincidence, he is good enough to make a fine living doing what he loves. Carlsen will continue to play actively because that is who he is and what he does, not because he cares about Kasparov's record which he is virtually certain to smash soon anyway.

Caruana does seem to be the next member of the 2800 club, but Radjabov is not so far behind. Other younger players we never suspected will surge forward, too, and Karjakin is hardly finished improving despite his poor result in the Grand Slam. Anand and Topalov retain the potential to regain the 2800 level, and Kramnik is only a fraction below it (but Vladimir has indicated he will retire when he feels it is time, hinting that will not be too many more years at the most).