my 2018 Oscar picks

It's that time again for my picks this year for the Oscars! It's a wild year of nominations with tons of movies that I either absolutely loved or are just lukewarm about. Not all my favorite movies were nominated, but that's totally fine! (Check out my TOP 10 by clicking right here!)

I've seen a good majority of the movies that were nominated (for a pretty much complete list, they're all here!), so I hope you can trust my opinion, but you can also see my biases throughout... The only movies that were nominated that I didn't see in theaters are: ROMAN J. ISRAEL, ESQ., BOSS BABY, THE BREADWINNER, FERDINAND, LOVING VINCENT, LOVELESS, ON BODY AND SOUL, all of the Documentary - Feature & Short Subject nominees, MARSHALL, and VICTORIA & ABDUL. I don't feel like calculating percentages right now, but I'm like 80% sure I've seen at least 80% of the nominees in theaters! Woo! (Thanks, MoviePass!)

So first off, I'm gonna start off with the categories that I think need some discussion, with the rest of the categories below. Click this handy lil link down here to skip down there.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

WILL PROBABLY WIN...

"This Is Me" from THE GREATEST SHOWMAN

... BUT MY HEART VOTES FOR

"Remember Me" from COCO

I'm not sure exactly which version the Academy votes on for this specific category, but I'm assuming it's the "single" version of the song. "This Is Me" is an extremely powerful song with soaring vocals and an uplifting message that can stand as a radio single. On the other hand, I'm pretty sure the Miguel version of "Remember Me" that plays during the end credits of the film is the one the Academy is going to vote on. This version is more dance-infused and doesn't completely work on an emotional level divorced of its context within the movie. "Remember Me" is the stronger song musically and emotionally, but "This Is Me" is a more rousing pick for the voters who don't see all the nominated movies.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

WILL PROBABLY WIN...

A FANTASTIC WOMAN

... BUT MY HEART VOTES FOR

THE INSULT

A FANTASTIC WOMAN, the Chilean entry, portrays a transgender woman dealing with the family of her late, older boyfriend, including his ex-wife and children. It's a more culturally relevant and powerful film about a strong, resilient woman. THE INSULT, a Lebanese film, starts off as a legal drama following an extremely minuscule incident, but evolves into an insane situation that delves into geopolitical issues. I loved how the latter unraveled, but WOMAN is still a great movie.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

WILL PROBABLY WIN...

CALL ME BY YOUR NAME

... BUT MY HEART VOTES FOR

LOGAN

There's no way in hell LOGAN would ever win against CALL ME, but one can only hope that the superhero genre can be more recognized within the Academy (especially with BLACK PANTHER potentially making a mark next year), and this would be a great start.

Honorable Mention: THE DISASTER ARTIST, as they were able to spin the story into a hilarious, sentimental tale about a person with a dream. No chance of winning, though, because of Franco's allegations.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

WILL PROBABLY WIN...

GET OUT

... BUT MY HEART VOTES FOR

GET OUT

Probably going to be the only award GET OUT receives for the night, but I'm okay with being wrong about that.

Honorable Mentions: THE BIG SICK and LADY BIRD for the stark realism, laughs and relatable characters they brought to the table.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

WILL PROBABLY WIN...

Allison Janney in I, TONYA

... BUT MY HEART VOTES FOR

Laurie Metcalf in LADY BIRD

Janney goes for broke in a loud, but great performance, while Metcalf does a lot more subtle work which I respect more.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

WILL PROBABLY WIN...

Willem Dafoe in THE FLORIDA PROJECT

... BUT MY HEART VOTES FOR

Willem Dafoe in THE FLORIDA PROJECT

Might seem like an odd choice because of Sam Rockwell's much lauded performance in THREE BILLBOARDS, but I think this is another year of the Career Oscar aka "good job for all these years, here ya go, bud" award. I'm not mad about it, since Dafoe is so damn good and subtle in this role.

BEST ACTRESS

WILL PROBABLY WIN...

Frances McDormand in THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI

... BUT MY HEART VOTES FOR

Frances McDormand in THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI

In a movie I'm lukewarm on, McDormand absolutely slays this role. Probably the only award I'm cool with THREE BILLBOARDS winning.

Honorable Mentions: Literally all four other actresses. My goodness.

BEST ACTOR

WILL PROBABLY WIN...

Gary Oldman in DARKEST HOUR

... BUT MY HEART VOTES FOR

Daniel Kaluuya in GET OUT

Career Oscar. Meh movie.

But subtlety seems to be the theme for my actor picks, as Kaluuya plays every scene with such coy smarts as he slowly puts everything together. I'm so happy he was even nominated, but that won't stop me from wanting him to win!

BEST DIRECTOR

WILL PROBABLY WIN...

Guillermo Del Toro for THE SHAPE OF WATER

... BUT MY HEART VOTES FOR

Guillermo Del Toro for THE SHAPE OF WATER

A solid choice in a solid field. The others probably will have their chance to win in the near future.

BEST PICTURE

WILL PROBABLY WIN...

THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI

... BUT MY HEART VOTES FOR

GET OUT

Yeah, I can't believe it either. I'm picking THREE BILLBOARDS as the Best Picture winner. Don't get me wrong, I get the movie, I just couldn't stand by some of its plot points. It is a very important movie about a form of activism, getting off your ass and doing something about a problem, and I respect it especially for most of the performances given. I can't get past some of the decisions characters make, and some casting choices...

GET OUT is a perfect movie to me. Great acting, twisted story and important themes. It's one of those movies that will probably be talked about longer than the actual movie that won. There's been a bit of groundswell for the campaign as of late, and I hope this can take the big one!

THE REST

(The titles that come first in the line are the "Will Probably Win"s, while the italicized titles are the "But My Heart Votes For"s, when needed)

Best Animated Feature Film

COCO (duh...)

Best Documentary - Feature

ICARUS (I guess... haven't seen any of these...)

Best Documentary - Short Subject

HEROIN(E) (see note for Documentary - Feature...)

Best Live Action Short Film

DEKALB ELEMENTARY; THE SILENT CHILD (The former's subject matter is just too relevant right now, sadly.)

Best Animated Short Film

DEAR BASKETBALL; GARDEN PARTY (PARTY is cute and does a great job with exposition, but DEAR BASKETBALL hit me right in the feels.)

Best Original Score

THE SHAPE OF WATER (Considering this is my first choice when I queue up a movie soundtrack...)

Best Sound Editing

DUNKIRK; BABY DRIVER (How can you say no to a movie that integrates sound so incredibly? With a movie that does the same, I guess.)