India Interest Rate

The Reserve Bank of India lowered unexpectedly its benchmark interest rate by 25bps to 6.25 percent on February 7th and shifted its stance to "neutral", in an attempt to boost a slowing economy as inflation rate remains well below its mid-point 4 percent target. Interest Rate in India averaged 6.65 percent from 2000 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 14.50 percent in August of 2000 and a record low of 4.25 percent in April of 2009.

Interest Rate in India is expected to be 6.25 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Interest Rate in India to stand at 6.25 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the India Interest Rate is projected to trend around 6.75 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

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RBI Unexpectedly Cuts Key Policy Rate to 6.25%

The Reserve Bank of India lowered unexpectedly its benchmark interest rate by 25bps to 6.25 percent on February 7th and shifted its stance to "neutral" in an attempt to boost a slowing economy as inflation rate remains well below its mid-point target of 4 percent.

Excerpts from the RBI Press Release:

In the fifth bi-monthly monetary policy resolution in December 2018, CPI inflation for 2018-19 was projected in the range of 2.7-3.2 per cent in H2:2018-19 and 3.8-4.2 per cent in H1:2019-20, with risks tilted to the upside. The actual inflation outcome at 2.6 per cent in Q3:2018-19 was marginally lower than the projection. There have been downward revisions in inflation projections during the course of the year, reflecting mainly the unprecedented soft inflation recorded across food sub-groups.

Turning to the growth outlook, GDP growth for 2018-19 in the December policy was projected at 7.4 per cent (7.2-7.3 per cent in H2) and at 7.5 per cent for H1:2019-20, with risks somewhat to the downside. The CSO has estimated GDP growth at 7.2 per cent for 2018-19. Looking beyond the current year, the growth outlook is likely to be influenced by the following factors. First, aggregate bank credit and overall financial flows to the commercial sector continue to be strong, but are yet to be broad-based. Secondly, in spite of soft crude oil prices and the lagged impact of the recent depreciation of the Indian rupee on net exports, slowing global demand could pose headwinds. In particular, trade tensions and associated uncertainties appear to be moderating global growth. Taking into consideration the above factors, GDP growth for 2019-20 is projected at 7.4 per cent – in the range of 7.2-7.4 per cent in H1, and 7.5 per cent in Q3 – with risks evenly balanced.

Headline inflation is projected to remain soft in the near term reflecting the current low level of inflation and the benign food inflation outlook. Beyond the near term, some uncertainties warrant careful monitoring. First, vegetable prices have been volatile in the recent period; reversal in vegetable prices could impart upside risk to the food inflation trajectory. Secondly, the oil price outlook continues to be hazy. Thirdly, a further heightening of trade tensions and geo-political uncertainties could also weigh on global growth prospects, dampening global demand and softening global commodity prices, especially oil prices. Fourthly, the unusual spike in the prices of health and education needs to be closely watched. Fifthly, financial markets remain volatile. Sixthly, the monsoon outcome is assumed to be normal; any spatial or temporal variation in rainfall may alter the food inflation outlook. Finally, several proposals in the union budget for 2019-20 are likely to boost aggregate demand by raising disposable incomes, but the full effect of some of the measures is likely to materialise over a period of time.

The MPC notes that the output gap has opened up modestly as actual output has inched lower than potential. Investment activity is recovering but supported mainly by public spending on infrastructure. The need is to strengthen private investment activity and buttress private consumption.

India Leaves Rates Steady as Expected
The Reserve Bank of India left its key policy rate steady at 6.5 percent for the second straight meeting on December 5th 2018, in line with market expectations. Policymakers reiterated the decision is consistent with a calibrated tightening that aims to achieve a 4 percent +/- 2 percent inflation target and support growth. The reverse repo rate was also left at 6.25 percent and the marginal standing facility rate and the Bank Rate at 6.75 percent each.Published on 2018-12-05

India Leaves Rates Unchanged
The Reserve Bank of India unexpectedly left its key policy rate steady at 6.5 percent on October 5th 2018, following a 25bps hike in the previous meeting, surprising markets that expected a similar rise to support a falling currency and curb inflationary pressures from oil prices. Policymakers said the decision is consistent with a calibrated tightening that aims to achieve a 4 percent +/- 2 percent inflation target and support growth. The reverse repo rate was also left at 6.25 percent and the marginal standing facility rate and the Bank Rate at 6.75 percent each.Published on 2018-10-05

India Raises Key Rate to 6.5%
The Reserve Bank of India increased its benchmark policy repo rate by 25bps to 6.5 percent on August 1st 2018, in line with market expectations and following a similar hike in the previous meeting. Policymakers mentioned uncertainty around inflation and slightly increased forecasts for H2 2018-19 to 4.8 percent from 4.7 percent. Although the central bank considers growth momentum is sustained, it noticed several global risks that could weigh on the outlook, including rising trade protectionism, geopolitical tensions and higher oil prices.Published on 2018-08-01

India Hikes Key Repo Rate to 6.25%
The Reserve Bank of India raised its benchmark policy repo rate by 25bps to 6.25 percent on June 6th 2018 while markets expected no changes. It is the first hike in borrowing costs since January of 2014, mentioning upside risks to inflation that include higher oil prices and uncertainty in global financial markets. Policymakers said the decision is consistent with a neutral monetary policy stance and is in line with achieving the inflation target of 4 percent +/- 2 percent while supporting growth. The reverse repo rate was also adjusted to 6 percent from 5.75 percent and the marginal standing facility rate and the Bank Rate to 6.5 percent from 6.25 percent.Published on 2018-06-06

India Interest Rate

In India, interest rate decisions are taken by the Reserve Bank of India's Central Board of Directors. The official interest rate is the benchmark repurchase rate. In 2014, the primary objective of the RBI monetary policy became price stability, giving less importance to government's borrowing, the stability of the rupee exchange rate and the need to protect exports. In February 2015, the government and the central bank agreed to set a consumer inflation target of 4 percent, with a band of plus or minus 2 percentage points, from the financial year ending in March 2017. This page provides - India Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. India Interest Rate - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on March of 2019.