SportsLine's advanced computer model simulated every Week 12 college football game 10,000 times

by
CBS Sports Staff

Nov 17, 2018
• 3 min read

With rivalry week, conference championship games, and bowl season looming, the Week 12 college football schedule looks like a potential trap for many of the nation's top teams. In fact, Will Grier and the West Virginia Mountaineers are the only team in the top 10 facing a single-digit point spread this week. They're 6.5-point favorites on the road against Oklahoma State in the latest Week 12 college football odds. Other top teams like Clemson (-28.5 vs. Duke), Michigan (-27.5 vs. Indiana), and Kentucky (-16.5 vs. MTSU) are all multi-score favorites. However, don't be surprised if we see some slip-ups this week, especially with college football odds and lines constantly changing. If you're looking to find an upset on Saturday, be sure to check out the Week 12 college football picks and predictions from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times, and those who have followed it have seen massive returns. Over the past three years, this proprietary computer model has generated a jaw-dropping $4,210 profit for $100 bettors on its top-rated point-spread picks.

The model was red-hot on top-rated picks last week. It nailed Ohio State (-3.5) over Michigan State in a game where the Buckeyes covered with plenty of room to spare in a 26-6 rout. Plays like that helped it go an impressive 23-10 overall on all top-rated picks, and anyone who followed it finished way, way up.

Now it has simulated every single play and its Week 12 college football picks are in.

One of the Week 12 college football picks the model is recommending: No. 10 Ohio State (-14) covers at Maryland.

Heading into Week 11, the Buckeyes had been sluggish, getting blown out by Purdue and then struggling in a tight win over Nebraska in their previous two games. But they broke out of that slump by blasting No. 18 Michigan State by 20 points in a game where the Spartans mustered just 12 first downs and 274 yards of total offense.

The model projects that Ohio State will keep rolling this week against a Maryland squad that has lost three of its past four. A week after allowing 34 points to Indiana, the Terrapins will give up 330 passing yards to OSU quarterback Dwayne Haskins, according to the model. The Buckeyes pile up well over 200 yards on the ground as they cover in almost 70 percent of simulations.

Another one of the strong Week 12 college football predictions from the model: Virginia Tech covers as 6.5-point home underdogs against Miami.

In a battle of two teams with ACC title hopes gone bad, Miami has been bet up from 3.5-point favorites to the current line. However, the model says the value is on the other side and likes Virginia Tech to cover by a wide margin.

Powered by a projection of four sacks and three forced turnovers by their defense, the Hokies keep it within the spread in nearly 65 percent of simulations. It's also calling for Virginia Tech to win outright at +200 on the moneyline nearly 55 percent of the time. The model also leans slightly towards Over (51.5), calculating a final score of 27-26 Virginia Tech.

The model also has made the call on the huge Shamrock Series game between No. 3 Notre Dame and No. 12 Syracuse at Yankee Stadium, and is projecting a team with College Football Playoff aspirations to get absolutely stunned by a big underdog.