How Many “ISIS-Affiliated” Groups Are Really ISIS? Does It Matter?

Egypt carried out airstrikes against ISIS targets in Libya over the weekend in response to a video showing the beheading of 21 Egyptian Christians. The strikes are Egypt’s most high-profile attack against the group yet, and also a sign that the global conflict with ISIS is spreading beyond the central battlefield in Iraq and Syria. In Libya the group has been gaining clout for some time and now controls the city of Derna, near the Egyptian border. Here are some other places ISIS is believed to be making inroads:

Joshua Keating is a staff writer at Slate focusing on international affairs.

Egypt: Before the Libya strikes, Abdel Fatah al-Sisi’s government had been battling ISIS-linked militants in the Sinai Peninsula. The local affiliate, known as Province of Sinai, killed 32 people in an attack on soldiers and police in January.

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Algeria: Jund al-Khilafa, a splinter group of al-Qaida’s North African affiliate, al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb, declared allegiance to ISIS last fall. The group made international headlines with the beheading of a French hiker in September.

Jordan: Support for ISIS is believed to be strong in parts of southern Jordan, and the country, which shares borders with both Iraq and Syria, is a leading contributor of fighters to the Syrian civil war. But ISIS may have miscalculated with the burning of Jordanian pilot Moaz al-Kasasbeh, which enraged even some of its sympathizers.

Afghanistan/Pakistan: Several former Taliban commanders have pledged their allegiance to ISIS, and this month, the U.S. military carried out its first strike against one of them in Afghanistan. A number of members of the Pakistan-based Tehrik-i-Taliban have defected to a new ISIS-affiliate as well.

Southeast Asia: Authorities in Malaysia and Indonesia say local radical groups planning attacks there have pledged allegiance to ISIS.

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And beyond: ISIS sympathizers have carried out attacks in Canada, Australia, and most seriously in France, though in all of these cases, the attackers were most likely sympathizers acting on their own rather than under specific orders from the group. Alleged ISIS cells have been busted by authorities in Belgium, Spain, and Germany. At least 100 Chinese citizens are thought to be fighting for ISIS, raising concerns that the group could operate in that country’s already restive Xinjiang region. One of the group’s leading online propagandists turned out to be in India. But while a significant majority of Americans are concerned that the group is active in the United States, there’s been little evidence of such activity so far.

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Every needs to calm the h*ll down. ISIS has no governing philosophy beyond extortion and ransom. They are pissing off literally every Arab state in the region, even ones that usually hate each other are unifying. More...

As always, there’s a definitional problem when it comes to figuring out what is and isn’t ISIS. With the possible exception of its new Libyan affiliate, none of the groups outside Iraq and Syria actually controls any territory. The Islamic State is also believed to have lower criteria for membership in the franchise than its rivals in al-Qaida, who were more concerned about diluting their core brand.

Groups and individuals are often deemed “ISIS-affiliated” in the media simply because they say they are. Even then, it’s not always clear. Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau has stated his support for ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, but even some ISIS supporters are confused about whether the two organizations are actually affiliated or just simpatico.

This might seem like hair-splitting but it’s really of the utmost importance considering that President Obama is asking for authority, without geographic limitation, to use force against ISIS as well as “individuals and organizations fighting for, on behalf of, or alongside” it. It’s not 100 percent clear which groups that language would apply to, but it’s definitely clear that the list is growing.