Francona: Putin's real end game in Ukraine

By Rick Francona

updated 11:55 AM EDT, Sat July 26, 2014

Debris from Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 sits in a field at the crash site in Hrabove, Ukraine, on Tuesday, September 9. The Boeing 777 is believed to have been shot down July 17 in an area of eastern Ukraine controlled by pro-Russian rebels.

Australian and Dutch experts examine the area of the crash on Sunday, August 3.

A woman walks with her bicycle near the crash site on Saturday, August 2.

Police secure a refrigerated train loaded with bodies of passengers from Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 as it arrives in a Kharkiv, Ukraine, factory on Tuesday, July 22.

A pro-Russian rebel passes wreckage from the crashed jet near Hrabove on Monday, July 21.

Wreckage from the jet lies in grass near Hrabove on July 21.

A man covers his face with a rag as members of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe and the Dutch National Forensic Investigations Team inspect bodies in a refrigerated train near the crash site in eastern Ukraine on July 21.

Emergency workers carry a victim's body in a bag at the crash site on July 21.

A piece of the plane lies in the grass in eastern Ukraine's Donetsk region on July 21.

An armed pro-Russian rebel stands guard next to a refrigerated train loaded with bodies in Torez, Ukraine, on Sunday, July 20.

Ukrainian State Emergency Service employees sort through debris on July 20 as they work to locate the deceased.

A woman covers her mouth with a piece of fabric July 20 to ward off smells from railway cars that reportedly contained passengers' bodies.

Toys and flowers sit on the charred fuselage of the jet as a memorial on July 20.

People search a wheat field for remains in the area of the crash site on July 20.

A woman walks among charred debris at the crash site on July 20.

Emergency workers load the body of a victim onto a truck at the crash site on Saturday, July 19.

Emergency workers carry the body of a victim at the crash site on July 19.

A large piece of the main cabin is under guard at the crash site on July 19.

Victims' bodies are placed by the side of the road on July 19 as recovery efforts continue at the crash site. International officials lament the lack of a secured perimeter.

A man looks through the debris at the crash site on July 19.

An envelope bearing the Malaysia Airlines logo is seen at the crash site on July 19.

Armed rebels walk past large pieces of the Boeing 777 on July 19.

Ukrainian rescue workers walk through a wheat field with a stretcher as they collect the bodies of victims on July 19.

A woman looks at wreckage on July 19.

Pro-Russian rebels stand guard as the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe delegation arrives at the crash site on Friday, July 18.

A woman walks through the debris field on July 18.

Pro-Russian rebels stand guard at the crash site.

Wreckage from Flight 17 lies in a field in Shaktarsk, Ukraine, on July 18.

A man covers a body with a plastic sheet near the crash site on July 18. The passengers and crew hailed from all over the world, including Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Germany and Canada.

A diver searches for the jet's flight data recorders on July 18.

Coal miners search the crash site.

Wreckage from the Boeing 777 lies on the ground July 18.

People search for bodies of passengers on July 18.

A woman walks past a body covered with a plastic sheet near the crash site July 18.

Belongings of passengers lie in the grass on July 18.

People inspect the crash site on Thursday, July 17.

People walk amid the debris at the site of the crash.

Debris smoulders in a field near the Russian border.

Fire engines arrive at the crash site.

A man stands next to wreckage.

Debris from the crashed jet lies in a field in Ukraine.

Family members of those aboard Flight 17 leave Schiphol Airport near Amsterdam, Netherlands.

A large piece of the plane lies on the ground.

Luggage from the flight sits in a field at the crash site.

A couple walks to the location at Schiphol Airport where more information would be given regarding the flight.

Flight arrivals are listed at the Kuala Lumpur International Airport in Sepang, Malaysia.

Debris from the Boeing 777, pictured on July 17.

A man inspects debris from the plane.

Wreckage from the plane is seen on July 17.

A man talks with security at Schiphol Airport on July 17.

Wreckage burns in Ukraine.

A man stands next to the wreckage of the airliner.

People inspect a piece of wreckage believed to be from Malaysia Airlines Flight 17. This image was posted to Twitter.

People inspect a piece of wreckage believed to be from Malaysia Airlines Flight 17. This image was posted to Twitter.

A piece of wreckage believed to be from Malaysia Airlines Flight 17. This image was posted to Twitter.

A piece of wreckage believed to be from MH17. This image was posted to Twitter.

An airsickness bag believed to be from MH17. This image was posted to Twitter.

A piece of wreckage believed to be from MH17. This image was posted to Twitter.

HIDE CAPTION

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

Malaysia Airlines jet crashes in Ukraine

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STORY HIGHLIGHTS

U.S. intelligence officials say they believe Russian artillery is firing into eastern Ukraine

Rick Francona says the artillery firing is a significant escalation by the Russians

Editor's note: Rick Francona is a retired U.S. Air Force intelligence officer and CNN military analyst. The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of the author.

(CNN) -- CNN Pentagon Correspondent Barbara Starr reported Thursday that the U.S. intelligence community has information that Russian artillery is firing into eastern Ukraine. The artillery pieces shown in the released footage are Russian M-46 130mm field guns with a range of a little over 16 miles.

Why would the Russians do this? Simple -- this fits into their plan to support pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine. The end game? I believe it is the eventual absorption of that region into the Russian Federation.

The area in red on the map is where much of the fighting between the Ukrainian government and the pro-Russian rebels has been occurring over the last month. The separatists have downed several Ukrainian military aircraft in this area as the fighting raged. It is also the area in which Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 was shot down in what most of us believe was a tragic case of mistaken identity and inept use of modern weaponry.

Over the past month, the Ukrainians have been successful in pushing the rebels into a pocket near the Russian border. One of the key weapons used by the Ukrainians is the Sukhoi Su-25 ground attack/close air support jet fighter. It is heavily armed and armored, meant to fly low and attack personnel and vehicles with a variety of weapons. Flying low makes it vulnerable to ground fire, however, especially shoulder-launched MANPADS, which are the heat-seeking surface-to-air missiles in the rebels' arsenal (also supplied by the Russians).

To address some of the vulnerability to ground fire, pilots can fly higher than the effective ranges of MANPADS.

Defending against these higher-flying aircraft requires a more advanced and capable air defense system -- like the SA-11 (called the "Buk" system by the Russians). From a variety of reports, it appears that the Russians provided a Buk transporter-erector-launcher-and-radar (TELAR) to the separatists. There is footage of an SA-11 TELAR being moved from this contested area toward the Russian border immediately after MH17 was shot down.

MH17 Investigators Look At All Clues

Just three days before, on June 14, the rebels shot down a Ukrainian military Antonov An-26 twin-turboprop cargo aircraft flying at an altitude of 21,000 feet. Since this altitude is significantly above the range of the MANPADS in either the Ukrainian or rebel arsenal, the obvious conclusion is that it was downed with a more capable system: the SA-11 system supplied by the Russians.

That event alone should have set off alarm bells in the civil aviation community. The downing of any aircraft operating at that altitude presented a different threat scenario than would an area in which shoulder-fired missiles were the only threat to aviation.

The subsequent -- and I believe mistaken -- downing of MH17 forced the rebels and their Russian sponsors to remove the SA-11 system from eastern Ukraine, although it is obvious to most observers what had happened.

Without the improved air defense umbrella provided by the SA-11, the separatists found themselves again subject to effective Ukrainian air strikes. On Wednesday, two Ukrainian Su-25 fighters were shot down while operating at an altitude of 17,000 feet -- just above the range of MANPADS, yet still at an altitude to deliver munitions with a degree of accuracy.

The Ukrainians believe the aircraft were downed with SA-11 missiles, but this time fired from inside Russian territory. The SA-11 has enough range to reach not only that altitude, but more than 20 miles into Ukrainian territory.

In a further development, on Thursday it appeared that the Russians had also begun fire support for the rebels, firing artillery from inside Russian territory into eastern Ukraine. While the M-46 130mm field gun seen in the photos can reach out to about 16 miles, the Russians have other systems that can reach as far as 25 miles or more.

This represents a significant change in the situation between Russia and Ukraine. Providing material support -- the money, weapons and training required to mount an effective insurgency -- to groups in foreign countries is a recognized method of assisting groups that are either carrying out your wishes or are furthering a foreign policy objective. We have done it routinely. Afghanistan is a prime example.

Firing artillery rounds into another sovereign nation with whom you are not at war is another matter entirely. This would be an act of war, yes, but it underscores just how seriously the Russians (read: President Vladimir Putin) view the survival of the pro-Russian rebels in Ukraine and their hopes that their continued fighting will achieve a key foreign policy objective.

Putin believes these rebels are his ticket to gradually acquiring eastern Ukraine without a Russian military invasion. This use of artillery in the midst of the international furor over the MH17 incident demonstrates his seriousness.

On Friday, the Ukrainians reportedly responded to the Russian artillery fire with mortar fire across the Russian border. This represents a significant escalation of the tensions along that border -- what was once an internal (albeit externally supported) conflict between Ukrainian nationals and pro-Russian separatists now has the trappings of a cross-border fight between two sovereign nations, one of which has immensely greater military power.

Both sides are calculating their next moves. From the Russian perspective, with its approximately 15,000 troops deployed along the border, this artillery fire is logical and almost obligatory support for ethnic Russians who they believe would rather be part of the Russian Federation.

From the Ukrainian perspective, this is Russian meddling in their internal affairs. Military action from the Russian side will draw a Ukrainian armed response. This is understandable, but the Ukrainians need to ensure that they are not playing into Vladimir Putin's game plan. At some point, the Russians may declare that they need to intervene to protect "Russian nationals in eastern Ukraine."