Cocoa lower as African arrivals remain strong

General Comments: Futures closed lower. Good arrivals in Africa are negative and are continuing. Ivory Coast arrivals are strong, and the trend for strong arrivals from there should continue. However, arrivals from other West African countries are starting to move lower. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable. Overall weather patterns in West Africa production areas are good for harvest progress. Demand is reported weaker from the US and Europe, in part due to current economics and in part due to changes forced by the World Bank that encouraged forward marketing of the crops. Traders are starting to look ahead and past the midcrop harvest and note that the market could move to a production déficit next year. Ivory Cost growing conditions are reported good right now as the Harmattan winds are subsiding without causing any real damage to crops. Some showers have been reported as well. The better weather is needed as it was too dry last year.

Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in West Africa, but some showers ar expecte. Temperatures will average mostly above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of scattered showers, but Malaysia will be drier this weekend. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.754 million bags. LIFFE stocks are 2,642 standard lots, 146 large lots, and 3 bulk lots.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2175 and 2100 March. Support is at 2155, 2145, and 2115 March, with resistance at 2230, 2250, and 2275 March. Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1425 March. Support is at 1425, 1410, and 1405 March, with resistance at 1455, 1465, and 1480 March.

COTTON

General Comments: Futures were higher as speculators contemplated less planted area next year and also expected a strong export sales report this morning. Bull spreads were featured once again as the market tries to find some Cotton. Those looking for Cotton are having a tough time as supplies do not seem to be out there, or at least are not available to the market. Export sales have been strong for the last month to six weeks, and strong sales are expected to continue after the failed Chinese government auction a week ago. Buyers there said that the government wanted high prices for inferior Cotton and that they would continue to import even with higher taxes. The current low prices are bringing into question what farmers in Texas and the Delta and Southeast will plant this year. Some are wondering if planted area might be lower this year here in the US due to weak prices against competing crops. The area lost would go mostly to Corn and Soybeans. Current weather features some precipitation in Delta and Southeast areas, but western Texas was mostly dry. Delta areas will turn dry this week. Ideas are that the market can continue to work higher overall.

Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see mostly dry conditions, although a few showers are possible early next week. Temperatures will average near to above normal, then above to much above normal starting on Sunday. Texas will get dry weather this week and a shower this weekend. Temperatures will average near to above normal this weekend and above to much above normal next week. The USDA spot price is now 77.42 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.110 million bales, from 0.108 million yesterday. USDA said that net Upland Cotton export sales were 213,700 bales this year and 29,700 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 20,700 bales this year and 0 bales next year.

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up with objectives of 9100 March. Support is at 80.55, 79.90, and 78.00 March, with resistance of 84.00, 85.25, and 87.00 March.

About the Author

Jack Scovilleis a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

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