Another quiet day on Wall Street. That is the new normal. The S&P
500 this year has been more likely to move less than 0.1 percent than
to move more than 0.5 percent in a trading session. The index has closed
at least 1 percent higher or lower a mere four times this year.

The
CBOE volatility index has fallen to 23-year lows. And still the market
keeps inching higher. The market is still hovering near
record highs.

The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office has released its score
of the Better Care Reconciliation Act, this is the Senate version of
legislation to repeal and replace Obamacare. The Senate Republican
health care bill would leave 22 million fewer Americans with health
insurance by 2026 than under Obamacare.

And while that is a slight
improvement on 23 million that would lose insurance under the House
version, it is still a dreadful number. Next year, 15 million more
people would be uninsured compared with current law. Like the House
bill, the Senate’s version would end enhanced funding for Medicaid
expansion, though at a slower pace, while overhauling the entire
Medicaid program.

It would eliminate the mandates that require nearly
all Americans to have coverage and companies with more than 50 workers
to provide health benefits. And it would jettison Obamacare’s taxes on
the wealthy, insurers and others, while allowing insurers to charge more
to older policyholders.

However, the Senate bill would maintain much of
Obamacare’s subsidy structure to help people pay for individual
coverage, but make it less generous, particularly for older enrollees.
And it would keep more of Obamacare’s insurance regulations than the
House legislation. The Senate version also provides funds to stabilize
the Obamacare market over the next few years, including money for a key
set of subsidies for insurers.

The GOP plan allows insurance
companies to charge older adults up to five times more than younger
people, while under ObamaCare older Americans can only be charged three
times as much as younger people. The lobbying group for seniors accused
Senate GOP leaders of crafting legislation in “secrecy” that “would hit
millions of Americans with higher costs and result in less coverage for
them.”

Here are a few other key findings from the CBO:
Premiums would increase in 2018 and 2019 compared to the current baseline, but decline thereafter: According
to the CBO, premiums would increase 30% more than the current
projection in 2018 and 10% higher than the current baseline in 2019.
From 2020 and beyond, the change in the risk pool with older and poorer
Americans likely priced out would bring these premiums down.

Deductibles and out of pocket costs would increase substantially: The
benchmark plan on the individual insurance market would have an
actuarial value of 58%, meaning insurance was obligated to cover 58% of
the total costs. That is down from the current 70% benchmark value.
According to the CBO, that opens the door for higher deductibles and
out-of-pocket costs.

Earlier today, Republicans released changes to their healthcare bill,
adding a measure that would penalize people who let their insurance
coverage lapse. The revised bill would impose a six-month waiting period
for anyone who lets their health insurance lapse for over 63 days and
then wants to re-enroll in a plan in the individual market.

The legislation would decrease federal deficits by a total of $321
billion over a decade; more than the $119 million in savings in the
House bill, between 2017 and 2026. The savings are made possible
by cutting $862 billion in spending over that time-frame while also
reducing tax revenue by $541 billion. It represents a big tax cut for
wealthy taxpayers, but even bigger spending cuts, mainly to Medicaid.

That means the legislation can continue under the budget reconciliation
process, which only requires 51 votes to pass. As of today, it does not
have enough votes to pass. Five Republican senators have said they would
not vote for the BCRA, several others have indicated they are leaning
in the direction of a vote against and it doesn’t look like the CBO
score will help turn those to support the bill.

Senate Majority Leader
Mitch McConnell is insisting on a vote this week before lawmakers leave
town for the July 4th recess, but a vote could be delayed, especially if
it looks like it will go down in flames. Look for tweaking, name
calling, arm twisting and much more over the coming days or weeks.

The Supreme Court will allow most of the Trump administration’s travel ban to go forward before
it hears a case on the matter in October. The ruling grants a stay of
lower court rulings that had piled up against the administration. The
court’s decision found that the lower courts’ preliminary injunctions,
which fully halted the key provisions of the executive order, were too
broad.

So, the court narrowed these injunctions, ruling that the travel
ban “may not be enforced against foreign nationals who have a credible
claim of a bona fide relationship with a person or entity in the United
States.”

That would apply to people who have family members stateside,
those who have been admitted to a college or hired by an employer. However, “all other foreign nationals are still subject to the
provisions” of the order.

In practice, the court’s ruling means Trump’s
travel ban won’t be able to affect the great majority of foreign
nationals who were trying to get to the U.S. from the six
countries. It was already extremely difficult to get a visa from these
countries unless you had family ties or a specific invitation.

The court
also set arguments on the merits of the case for the first day of its
next term in early October. The government may now exclude citizens from
six Muslim-majority countries from coming into the United States unless
they have some meaningful connection with a “person or entity” in the
country. The court’s order also allows the government to exclude
refugees, even those who are already vetted and poised to resettle here,
unless they have the required connections.

SCOTUS agreed to consider whether employees who report misconduct at
their companies are entitled to protections as “whistleblowers” if they
report the alleged wrongdoing only internally, not to the Securities and
Exchange Commission.

The announcement is welcome news for corporate
defendants that have lamented the broad way in which the SEC and some
federal courts have interpreted the 2010 Dodd-Frank financial overhaul,
which is ambiguous about whether employees who only make internal
corporate reports of securities fraud are protected under federal law.

The Supreme Court also agreed to consider whether the Constitution’s religion clauses allow a bakery to deny service to gay couples. In a separate ruling, the Supremes ruled that
the Constitution requires states to list married same-sex couples on
their children’s birth certificate. The decision marks a landmark
victory for gay rights, confirming that the court’s decision in Obergefell v. Hodges protects all rights relating to marriage, not simply the recognition of marriage itself.

The Supreme Court ruled that taxpayer-funded grants for playgrounds
available to nonprofits under a state program could not be denied to a
school run by a church.

The Supreme Court declined to hear a Second Amendment challenge
to a California law that places strict limits on carrying guns in
public. The California case essentially bans carrying guns openly in
public and allows carrying concealed weapons only if applicants can
demonstrate good cause.

Orders for durable goods such as planes and computers fell in May for
the second month in a row and registered the biggest drop in six
months. Durable-goods orders slipped 1.1% last month following a similar
decline in April. A key measure of business investment known as core
capital-goods orders, meanwhile, fell 0.2% to mark the first decline of
2017. Businesses that were eagerly anticipating tax and regulatory
relief may be taking a wait-and-see attitude.

Government websites
in Ohio, Maryland and New York have been hacked with what appears to be
pro-ISIS propaganda. It was not immediately clear who the group is — or
whether it is genuinely affiliated with ISIS. The Ohio sites were back
to normal this morning.

Twitter, Facebook, YouTube and Microsoft have formed the Global Internet Forum to Counter Terrorism.
The group will share technical tools for combating extremist content,
such as violent imagery and terrorist propaganda, and commission
research to guide future resources. It’ll also work with academic and
policy experts to learn more about terrorism.

Martin Shkreli,
the former pharmaceutical executive is going to trial. In 2017, Shkreli
sparked outrage in 2015 for increasing the price of Daraprim, a drug
used by AIDS patients, by more than 5,000% from $13.50 to $750 a pill
while he was CEO of Turing Pharmaceuticals. But the trial deals with
charges of securities fraud, wire fraud and conspiracy for allegedly
cheating investors out of more than $11 million between 2009 and 2014 in
what federal prosecutors called a “Ponzi scheme.”

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