Scientists use AI to predict diseases carriers

​Scientists have applied artificial intelligence (AI) to the study of rodents to find out which rats are likely to harbor diseases, known as zoonotic pathogens, dangerous to people.

With so many animals and
unpleasant bacteria and viruses in the world, working out which
ones might infect humans is a difficult job.

One such disease is the plague, known during the Middle Ages as
the Black Death. So devastating were its effects that it killed
one-third of Europe’s population in just eight years between 1346
and 1353. It was caused by a bacteria carried by fleas, which in
turn lived on black rats. Such diseases, which can transfer from
animals to humans, are known as zoonosises. Ebola fever, as well
as swine and bird flu, are examples of these.

Now Barbara Han and her colleagues from the Cary Institute of
Ecosystem Studies in New York have developed a form of AI, called
machine learning, to search for species that could carry
diseases. This technique allows computers to analyze large sets
of data and identify patterns that would be too much for the
human mind. Dr. Han and her team published their findings in the
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Previous research had revealed that of the more than 217 of the
2,200 species of rodent carry pathogens, including viruses and
bacteria, and protozoa and worms. Seventy-nine of these carry
more than one.

Dr. Han used 86 criteria to characterize rodent species, such
their speed of reproduction, and type of habitat and physiology.
Researchers then did the same with rodent-born bugs and fed all
the data into computer programs to predict if a particular rodent
species is likely to harbor something that can cause disease in
humans.

The computers predicted known disease-carrying rodents with 90
percent accuracy. The software also concluded that such species
tend to have short lives and gestation periods, large litters,
and reach sexual maturity early, the Economist reported. They
were also discovered to live near large human populations and in
areas with few other rodent species. In addition, such species
tend to be far ranging.

Species with short lifespans and which breed rapidly tend to
devote fewer resources to fighting off diseases. Their
evolutionary strategy is to deal with illnesses by outbreeding
them.

The scientists then asked the computer to look at species not
known to carry human pathogens, but which could have this
capability. Some 150 of were found. Another 50 already known to
carry at least one human disease, were found to be capable of
carrying other pathogens as well.

Dr. Han stressed that the results are statistical rather than
definitive, and predictions could not be made with certainty that
a particular species was carrying a disease transferable to
humans.

The researchers also found a number of hotspots around the world
likely to harbor disease-carrying rodents. Central Asia, in what
is now Kazakhstan and northern China, was one such area, as were
the states of Kansas and Nebraska in the American prairie region.