Brown's departure opens door for other candidates

It’s all about BRT — with or without Matt Brown in the race. And experts say the London mayor’s bombshell news Friday that he won’t seek a second term leaves a void for another candidate to champion the largest project in the city’s history.

Political analysts say Brown’s departure dramatically changes the landscape of the looming fall civic election, opening the door for a candidate to bring home major projects like the city’s $500-million bus rapid transit (BRT) system without being weighed down by the baggage Brown carried.

London is hungry for strong leadership.

former city politician Gord Hume

“There’s going to be a lot of people thinking there needs to be a pro-BRT mayoral candidate who’s on the left,” said political scientist Andrew Sancton of Western University.

Brown, who made city-building projects such as rapid transit and sprawl-ending infill development a focus of his term, is bowing out after four years as mayor — a rarity itself in a city where incumbents typically run and win.

Mayor Matt BrownMike Hensen/The London Free Press

But Brown was crippled when an affair with then-deputy mayor Maureen Cassidy surfaced in 2016, says longtime political observer and former city politician Gord Hume. Brown had campaigned two years earlier on a pledge to restore integrity and dignity to the mayor’s office, tainted by previous mayor Joe Fontana’s criminal convictions for fraud.

“Brown was weakened forever. He lost his moral authority,” Hume said. “It changed his electability.”

The pressing question: Who might fill the breach left by Brown in the mayoral race?

Experts agree a sitting councillor could cash in all the advantages of incumbency, without the personal baggage that saddled Brown.

“If you have positive name recognition and have already started to talk to your (campaign) team, you certainly have a head start,” said Sandy Levin, a former city councillor who also led London’s Urban League, an umbrella group for neighbourhood associations.

Levin agreed the new political landscape creates a clearer path for a candidate who leans to the left.

That’s not a label that would apply to the most visible challengers, who can’t officially declare their intention to run for mayor until after May 1.

Brown’s main rival in 2014, who won a third of the vote then and is a likely candidate again this year, is self-described pro-business candidate Paul Cheng, who’s vowed to scrap the BRT plan.

And mayoral runs are costly, especially for candidates not widely known by voters, Levin said. Brown built up a war chest of $203,000 en route to a lopsided win in the 2014 race.

Might incumbent councillors join the race?

Rumours have swirled about Josh Morgan, Mo Salih, Phil Squire and Tanya Park, none of whom would go out on a limb and commit to a mayoral run when pointedly asked on Friday.

An incumbent would be the natural choice, Sancton said — someone who has name recognition, knows the issues and has the political experience — but it might not be that easy to find a candidate.

“It’s not at all obvious to me who has the incentives to do that, unless they’re willing to take the risk that they could lose the mayoral election and council altogether,” Sancton said.

“That’s a difficult calculation for most (incumbents) to make.”

Paul Hubert

Deputy Mayor Paul Hubert, who announced last year that he wouldn’t seek another term in west-end Ward 8, said unequivocally Friday he won’t consider a mayoral bid. But he said he hopes someone who shares the vision of this council, will take a run.

“I think there’s opportunity for a really thoughtful, centrist, fiscally conservative candidate, someone who’s supportive of the strategic plan that this council’s put in place,” said Hubert, himself a BRT backer.

Canada’s largest city with no form of rapid transit, London has seen deep divisions over the cost and benefits of BRT, a 24-kilometre network of high-frequency buses running on dedicated centre-road lanes extending to all four quadrants of the city.

Political experts also say voters are more concerned about electing a strong leader with vision than a candidate’s political leanings.

“London is hungry for strong leadership. There’s a huge vacuum and a big opportunity in this city,” said Hume, who’s published a number of books on civic affairs.

That’s something they never got from Brown, he said, especially not after news of his affair broke in 2016.

“I think it took council a year to recover from it,” Hume said of the affair. He said many voters have a sense of quiet disappointment in this council, and predicts leadership will be one of the central themes of the campaign lead-up to the Oct. 22 election.

That might force potential candidates to be clearer with voters about their vision and what they’d bring to the mayor’s office, said Hume. He said he expects to see a number of candidates — and not just incumbents — emerge soon.

“I think you may see the business community step forward, you may see the education community step forward, the health care, the labour community — whatever these communities of interest are,” he said. “They may, together or separately, start to present some candidates.”

Former politicians from London might also be in the mix.

Former city councillor Stephen Orser, who served two terms before losing his Ward 4 seat in 2014 to Jesse Helmer, said this week he will run for mayor. Also weighing a run is defeated former London West Conservative MP Ed Holder, who said he first considered entering the race even before Brown announced he wouldn’t run again.

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