Europehttp://www.newgeography.com/category/story-topics/europe
The taxonomy view with a depth of 0.en'Two Regimes': A Visual Memory of Wartime Survivalhttp://www.newgeography.com/content/005442-two-regimes-a-visual-memory-wartime-survival
<p>At the corner of Maitland Avenue and Maitland Boulevard, the Holocaust Memorial Center is squeezed between tennis courts and a small courtyard, part of the Jewish Community Center. Inside, the classrooms are nicely squared off. The exhibit “Two Regimes” takes up one classroom’s walls with about 40 paintings depicting life during the Stalin and Hitler regimes for Jews living in Mariupol, Ukraine. From this industrial port town on the shore of the Azov Sea to a ramshackle stilt house in north Florida, the exhibit is a strange tale, partly told.</p>
<p>“The exhibit will be free and available for the public to view until January 2, 2017,” stated Terrance Hunter, Program Coordinator for the <a href="http://www.holocaustedu.org/">Holocaust Memorial Resource and Education Center of Florida.</a> The Center is dedicated to building an inclusive community in the Orlando area through exhibits and educational programs centered around the events of the Holocaust. This is the very first show of these paintings by the artist, and the Holocaust Center, through a State of Florida Grant, is preparing classroom curriculum materials using the paintings to help children better understand this terrible period.</p>
<p>Artist Nadia Werbitzky’s forty-odd paintings soulfully illuminate her mother’s memoirs of the times between the two world wars. After surviving several concentration camps, Werbitzky and her mother emigrated first to Germany, then to Canada, ending up in Baltimore. How her paintings came to rest under a Florida Cracker stilt house is still a bit of a mystery, confessed exhibit co-curator Kelly Bowen in a recent talk about the art.</p>
<p>The work was discovered by Mimi Shaw, then an acting coach in Tallahassee in the late 1990s. A student advised her of an interesting garage sale, so she went, and discovered Teodora’s memoirs and much of Nadia’s paintings, slowly rotting in an old house about to be demolished. Foresight and determination helped Shaw and her friend Bowen rescue, and eventually restore, the artwork.</p>
<p>Werbitzky studied at the Art Academy of Dusseldorf after the end of World War 2, developing her own style that references European masters like Van Gogh and Matisse. Haunted by her memories she carefully depicted real people in real events. When her work was subjected to authoritative Holocaust scholarship, the people she claimed to have painted were found to be real, and so are memorialized, as she put it, as “people who lived and breathed on this earth.”</p>
<p>So much of our Holocaust education is about numbers: six million Jews; twenty-three main concentration camps, and so on. The suffering, however, cannot be abstracted into numbers and are brought to extraordinary life in Werbitzky’s beautiful paintings. “Hell’s Threshold” is a good example. It depicts the October 1941 Nazi roundup of 7,500 Jews in Mariupol. Standing in the back of the line, the woman in the pink dress was a friend of Teodora’s, and later verified by others. In a blue dress, a woman rushes around the corner to the back of the line with a young baby in her arms and pulling her daughter, who is clutching a large doll. Again, a specific memory of a specific person: this time, herself.</p>
<p>The book “Two Regimes” puts the paintings and memoirs together, bringing old Russia to life, both good and bad. This touring exhibit evokes awe for its subjects and respect for the calm approach the curators have taken to restore and exhibit Verbitzky’s work. Two Regimes is worth seeing for both its artistic depth and its unique eye on this terrible time. If it happened then, it could happen again.</p>
<p><strong><a href="http://www.orlandoweekly.com/orlando/two-regimes-memorializes-a-town-of-ukrainian-jews-caught-between-two-world-wars/Content?oid=2536380">This article first appeared in The Orlando Weekly.</strong></a></p>
<p><em>Richard Reep is an architect with <a href="http://www.voa.com/">VOA Associates, Inc.</a> who has designed award-winning urban mixed-use and hospitality projects. His work has been featured domestically and internationally for the last thirty years. An Adjunct Professor for the Environmental and Growth Studies Department at Rollins College, he teaches urban design and sustainable development; he is also president of the Orlando Foundation for Architecture. Reep resides in Winter Park, Florida with his family.</em></p>
<p>Image: Nadia Werbitzky</p>
http://www.newgeography.com/content/005442-two-regimes-a-visual-memory-wartime-survival#commentsEuropeOrlandoThu, 24 Nov 2016 00:38:30 -0500Richard Reep5442 at http://www.newgeography.comErasing Anglo cultural heritage risks what makes our republic diversehttp://www.newgeography.com/content/005415-erasing-anglo-cultural-heritage-risks-what-makes-our-republic-diverse
<p>It’s increasingly unfashionable to celebrate those who made this republic and established its core values. On college campuses, the media and, increasingly, in corporate circles, the embrace of “diversity” extends to demeaning the founding designers who arose from a white population that was 80 percent British.</p>
<p>In this American version of Mao’s “Cultural Revolution,” which tried to eviscerate traces of China’s past, venerable buildings are being renamed, athletes refuse to stand for the national anthem and, on some campuses, waving the American flag is now considered a “microaggression,” while English students at Yale want to avoid reading the likes of Milton, Shakespeare and Chaucer.</p>
<p>Of course, some changes are justified. Asking anyone, particularly African Americans, to revere the Confederate flag or attend schools named after the founder of the Ku Klux Klan is, indeed, offensive. But in our zeal to address old wrongs, we may also be sacrificing the very things that have made this republic so attractive to millions from distinctly different backgrounds for the last two centuries.</p>
<p><strong>Why we come here</strong></p>
<p>Just to clear the air, I have not a single drop of British blood in me. The closest ties I have to what I consider my cultural and political home country come from my great uncle Simon, who served in Gen. Allenby’s Jewish brigade in World War I, and that my wife, born in Montreal, came into the world a subject of Her Majesty, Queen Elizabeth. Career wise, I did work for a think tank in London for several years.</p>
<p>But what ties most Americans to the founders is not race, but our embrace of a political and legal culture based on distinctly Anglo-Saxon ideas about due process, representative government, property rights and free speech. These proved infinitely superior to the divine right of czars, kaisers, emperors and other hereditary autocrats for generations of non-Anglo-Americans.</p>
<p>This system, always capable of amendment, has allowed waves of traditional outsider groups — African Americans, Latinos, women, Mormons, Jews and Muslims — to join the economic, political and cultural mainstream. In some cases, as in the case of President Obama, they have also secured the highest reaches in the national firmament.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.ocregister.com/articles/republic-731593-core-unfashionable.html"><strong><em>Read the entire piece at the Orange County Register.</em></strong></a></p>
<p><em>Joel Kotkin is executive editor of NewGeography.com. He is the Roger Hobbs Distinguished Fellow in Urban Studies at Chapman University and executive director of the Houston-based Center for <a href="http://www.opportunityurbanism.org/">Opportunity Urbanism</a>. His newest book, <a href="http://amzn.to/1oewWF4">The Human City: Urbanism for the rest of us</a>, will be published in April by Agate. He is also author of <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/091438628X/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=091438628X&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=newgeogrcom-20&amp;linkId=CAGQAHAYTUPQIPY2">The New Class Conflict</a>, <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0375756515/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;tag=newgeogrcom-20&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=0375756515">The City: A Global History</a>, and <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B005B1BN90/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;tag=newgeogrcom-20&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=B005B1BN90">The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050</a>. He lives in Orange County, CA.</em></p>
<p>Photo: William Robert Shepherd [Public domain], <a href="https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3ABritish_colonies_1763-76_shepherd1923.PNG">via Wikimedia Commons</a></p>
http://www.newgeography.com/content/005415-erasing-anglo-cultural-heritage-risks-what-makes-our-republic-diverse#commentsCaliforniaDemographicsEuropePoliticsUnited KingdomPolicyFri, 28 Oct 2016 01:38:32 -0400Joel Kotkin5415 at http://www.newgeography.comSolidarity, not Division: Understanding London’s East Endhttp://www.newgeography.com/content/005404-solidarity-not-division-understanding-london-s-east-end
<p>The East End of London has a long history of working-class community. It has been a place of industry, where the river Thames and the river Lea have provided work for many people. The area attracted many <a href="http://www.elta-project.org/theme-immigration.html">immigrants</a>, including workers from <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-18903391">Africa</a> since Tudor times, sailors from <a href="https://www.britishmuseum.org/pdf/Chinese%20diaspora%20in%20Britain%20201008.pdf">China</a>, former slaves from America, French Protestants facing religious persecution in the 1600s and Irish weavers working in the textile industries. There have been Jewish <a href="http://www.publicspirit.org.uk/the-life-and-legacy-of-the-jewish-east-end/">communities</a> in the East End for centuries, too. The twentieth century saw an increase in immigrants from the former British colonies, including South Asia, particularly <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2002/jun/21/religion.bangladesh">Bangladesh</a>. Not only has it been a place to seek a livelihood, but it has also been a place of refuge.</p>
<p><!--break--></p>
<p>One side of my family hails from the East End and North East London, so I have a strong personal connection to this part of London. My ancestors worked in the local industries and on the river. We might not technically be <a href="http://public.oed.com/aspects-of-english/english-in-use/cockney/">‘Cockneys’</a> (in that we weren’t all born within earshot of Bow Bells), but we are Cockney by nature. Family gatherings would include a raucous ‘knees-up’ (dancing and singing) and traditional local fare of <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2013/nov/09/jellied-eels-cockney-tesco-food">jellied eels</a>. We’re a working-class family who have lived in East London for generations.</p>
<p>So I was interested when I came across a recent short BBC documentary called <a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b07czw5k">Last Whites of the East End</a>. I was disturbed by the title, which suggested that white people in the area are somehow endangered – an odd idea and potentially a racist one. This racism was confirmed when I watched the show. The documentary focused on residents of Newham, one of the <a href="http://www.londonspovertyprofile.org.uk/indicators/boroughs/newham/">poorest</a> working-class boroughs in England. The filmmakers interviewed a number of working-class residents about their experiences of living in the East End and the decisions of some of them to leave the area. The majority of the subjects were white, though they also included one man of Bangladeshi background and one man of white and Afro-Caribbean heritage.</p>
<p>The narration of the documentary presented a racist agenda, describing the neighbourhood as at ‘tipping point’ with the ‘lowest white population in the UK’. It also noted a ‘dwindling cockney community’ who were in danger of disappearing in the face of increased immigration. Some of those interviewed were moving outside of London, to places like Essex, so they could live in areas with larger white populations. Some described themselves as ‘traditional East Enders’ and lamented the loss of the old community. They spoke of local services being shut down and the closure of the local pub. The film presented the interviewees as embodying white racism and a fear of the other, highlighting their reluctance to build bridges due to perceived differences. As one young white woman explained, they wanted to ‘stay with their own’.</p>
<p>But there were many contradictions in the documentary, too. It included an elderly white woman, who was preparing to leave her home and move out of London, not due to her fear of her Muslim neighbours (as implied by the narration, despite the fact that she was obviously upset to say goodbye to her Somali neighbour), but because she was elderly and alone and wanted to move closer to her daughter. Like many of her neighbours, she had once been a new arrival to the neighbourhood, moving there from the north of England. The two people of colour in the film both spoke of their connections to the local area and their identification as East Enders. Like their white neighbours, they pointed to the changing environment, but I’d suggest that the changes they were criticising were not tied to the latest influx of new immigrants.</p>
<p>Instead, they are matters of class. Gentrification and austerity are disrupting the lives of the working-class residents of the East End, not immigration. Housing has become too expensive, and government funding cuts are squeezing local schools and health services. Interviewees complained about the closure of a club which wasn’t just a local pub but also a community centre that elderly residents relied on for social events and to reduce isolation. Some white people are leaving, but, as I’ve seen with some friends and family members, that’s for financial reasons. They can purchase bigger properties if they sell their London homes, or they can pay less rent by moving to areas outside of London with smaller populations and less pressure on local services. And of course, not all of those leaving London are white.</p>
<p>The documentary downplays this part of the story. It also downplays the working-class solidarity that connects residents despite their differences. Residents of the East End share the experience of hardship and struggle, and this shared struggle has a very long history. The East End has a tradition of political <a href="https://turbulentlondon.com/2015/09/24/the-east-ends-radical-murals/">radicalism</a> and collective action. East Enders have looked after each other during tough times and shown a united front against hostile external forces. Famously, in 1936, the local community stood up against a group of anti-Semitic fascists who wanted to march through a Jewish area. The confrontation, known as the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2006/sep/30/thefarright.past">Battle of Cable Street</a>, was won because the community put their bodies on the line to keep the fascists out. The same community rallied during the Second World War and looked after each other during the bombing raids of the Blitz. More recently, local people have been supporting each other and engaging in collective <a href="https://focuse15.org/">action</a> in the face of forced evictions as local public housing is sold and redeveloped for private profit.</p>
<p>If the ‘traditional East End’ is disappearing, that isn’t because some working-class white are moving out of London. Working-class communities are not made up of just white people, and I’ve certainly never known a London that was mono-cultural. Yes, there are racist white working-class people. But the East End of London is a diverse and dynamic place, and always has been. It has also been a place of solidarity and struggle. The filmmakers chose to emphasize division instead of showing how East Enders act collectively, and it cast immigrants as a threat, when the real threats facing this community are austerity and gentrification.</p>
<p>This piece first appeared at <a href="https://workingclassstudies.wordpress.com/">Working-Class Perspectives</a>. </p>
<p>Photo Credit: Daryl Hutchison, <a href="https://www.instagram.com/daryldactyl/">@daryldactyl</a></p>
http://www.newgeography.com/content/005404-solidarity-not-division-understanding-london-s-east-end#commentsMiddle ClassDemographicsEconomicsEuropeHousingLondonUnited KingdomMon, 03 Oct 2016 01:38:50 -0400Sarah Attfield5404 at http://www.newgeography.comTwo Views of West’s Declinehttp://www.newgeography.com/content/005366-two-views-west-s-decline
<p>Summer is usually a time for light reading, and for the most part, I indulged the usual array of historical novels, science fiction as well as my passion for ancient history. But two compelling books out this year led me to more somber thoughts about the prospects for the decline and devolution of western society.</p>
<p>One, &ldquo;<a href="http://amzn.to/2b9RxnN">Submission</a>&rdquo; by the incendiary French writer Michel Houellebecq, traces the life of a rather dissolute French literature professor as he confronts a rapidly Islamifying France. The main character, Francois, drinks heavily, sleeps with his students and focuses on the writing of the now obscure French writer, J.K. Huysmans. Detached from politics, he watches as his native country divides between Muslims and the traditional French right led by the National Front&rsquo;s Marine Le Pen.</p>
<p>Ultimately, fear of Le Pen leads the French left into an alliance with the Muslim Brotherhood, handing power over to an attractive, clever Islamist politician. With all teaching posts requiring conversion to Islam, Francois in the end &ldquo;submits&rdquo; to Allah. Francois motives for conversion merge opportunism and attraction, including to the notion that, in an Islamic society, high prestige people like himself get to choose not only one wife, but several, including those barely past puberty.</p>
<p>The other declinist novel, &ldquo;<a href="http://amzn.to/2b7J0HX">The Family Mandible</a>&rdquo; by Lionel Shriver, is, if anything more dystopic. The author covers a once illustrious family through the projected dismal decades from 2029 to 2047. Like the Muslim tide that overwhelms Francois&rsquo; France, the Brooklyn-based Mandibles are overwhelmed in an increasingly Latino-dominated America; due to their higher birthrate and an essentially &ldquo;open border&rdquo; policy, &ldquo;Lats&rdquo; as they call them, now dominate the political system. The president, Dante Alvarado, is himself an immigrant from Mexico, due to a constitutional amendment — initially pushed to place Arnold Schwarzenegger in the White House — that allows non-natives to assume the White House.</p>
<p><strong>Collapse is from within</strong></p>
<p>Some critics have lambasted author Shriver as being something of a Fox style right-wing revisionist while others have labeled Houellebecq as an &ldquo;Islamophobe.&rdquo;</p>
<p>But these books are far more nuanced than orthodox Muslims or progressives might assume. For one thing, neither book blames the newcomers for the crisis of their respective societies. The collapse, they suggest, is largely self-inflicted.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.ocregister.com/articles/indulged-726457-summer-light.html"><strong><em>Read the entire piece at The Orange County Register.</em></strong></a></p>
<p><em>Joel Kotkin is executive editor of NewGeography.com. He is the Roger Hobbs Distinguished Fellow in Urban Studies at Chapman University and executive director of the Houston-based Center for <a href="http://www.opportunityurbanism.org/">Opportunity Urbanism</a>. His newest book, <a href="http://amzn.to/1oewWF4">The Human City: Urbanism for the rest of us</a>, will be published in April by Agate. He is also author of <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/091438628X/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=091438628X&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=newgeogrcom-20&amp;linkId=CAGQAHAYTUPQIPY2">The New Class Conflict</a>, <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0375756515/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;tag=newgeogrcom-20&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=0375756515">The City: A Global History</a>, and <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B005B1BN90/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;tag=newgeogrcom-20&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=B005B1BN90">The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050</a>. He lives in Orange County, CA.</em></p>
http://www.newgeography.com/content/005366-two-views-west-s-decline#commentsMiddle ClassDemographicsEconomicsEuropePoliticsPolicyMon, 22 Aug 2016 10:52:00 -0400Joel Kotkin5366 at http://www.newgeography.comEastern Europe Heads For A Brave Old Worldhttp://www.newgeography.com/content/005357-eastern-europe-heads-for-a-brave-old-world
<p>Will a unified Europe survive Britain’s vote on Brexit? The referendum of last June pointed the country out of the European Union. Will France or Italy follow suit? If so, it could doom the structure that began in the 1950s as a customs union, if not an uneasy economic alliance to keep Germany from rearming and dominating central Europe. And will a consequence of Brexit be the re-emergence of Russia as the dominant power in Eastern Europe? Or will the European Union last long enough to bring prosperity to the forgotten countries of Eastern Europe? </p>
<p>I thought about these questions when I recently boarded a night train in Zurich. Switzerland has never been a member of the European Union, but it coexists with the EU through a series of bilateral agreements, similar to those that Britain will now seek. I was heading east on a series of sleepers that took me through Austria, Slovakia, Hungary, Serbia, and Bulgaria, precisely those countries that a unified Europe had aimed to lift into prosperity. </p>
<p>I expected to find an absence of trade barriers, and see lands benefiting from the common currency, the euro, which is used by nineteen of the twenty-eight EU members. Instead, I felt as thought I was descending into a Brave Old World, that of a Europe with guarded borders and separate currencies, a land best imagined as lying on the far side of an economic Iron Curtain rather than a political one. Here’s the view from the train window:</p>
<p><B>Austria:</B> Along with its capital city, Vienna, Austria has been an EU winner. Into the 1980s Vienna was a cul-du-sac of the Cold War; the dead end, final stop of Western European laissez-faire economic polices that nestled against the dragon teeth and barbed wire of the Soviet sphere of influence.</p>
<p>After the wall fell, Vienna became a glittering capital of central Europe, the ideal city for both corporate headquarters and long weekends at the opera. Its banks and companies flourished, and much trade with the new countries of the East began and ended in the Austrian capital, which lies on the western edge of the great Hungarian plains. </p>
<p>Without the EU, however, Austria would be at risk of becoming a more dynamic Slovenia.</p>
<p><B>Slovakia:</B> A stepchild of the Soviet dissolution, Slovakia is the rump state to the east of the Czech Republic, the other half of divided Czechoslovakia. Its capital is in Bratislava, which is something of a Viennese suburb. The rest of the country, surrounded by Poland, Hungary, and Ukraine, is best understood as a heavy machine shop of collectivization, where there is now more demand for imported jeans than for Comecon turbines.</p>
<p>An EU member in the Eurozone — that is, a member that uses the euro as its currency — Slovakia is betting its economic future on the basis of its low-costs and proximity to Austria, which has attracted a number of Western car companies, including Jaguar. A nice hotel room is €45. </p>
<p>Conversely, Western consumers are indifferent to Slovakian products, goods, and services, which has positioned Turkey as one of the country’s leading trade partners.</p>
<p>I spent an evening with a Slovakian who is fixing up his house. His solution wasn’t to order British or French fixtures from within the EU, but to import a container full from Istanbul, complete — so he implied — with Turkish workers to hitch up the low-cost appliances and lighting.</p>
<p><B>Hungary:</B> In the go-go years of European expansion, Hungary was the France of Eastern Europe, a proud civilization that dates back more than a thousand years. Its capital city, Budapest, is a place of grace and sophistication. </p>
<p>London bankers invested their bonuses in Pest apartment flats, and discount airlines flooded the Buda hills with wandering tourists.</p>
<p>In the soon-to-be-reordered European Union, Hungary could become neither here nor there. Its nationalist, right wing parties (70 percent of the recent election) dream of a Hungarian greatness that was lost at Trianon after World War I and in Transylvania. But the Hungarians have no idea whether its salvation lies in turning east toward Russia, north toward Germany, or west toward a fragmented EU. </p>
<p>Without a lodestone that inspires optimism, Hungary finds it easier to blame its problems on gays, immigrants, Viennese bankers, and the EU, not to mention the protocols of the elders of Zion.</p>
<p><B>Serbia:</B> My overnight train from Budapest to Belgrade was covered with graffiti, giving it the air of a wayward New York City subway train from the 1970s, although one with couchettes and without break dancers.</p>
<p>NATO bombed Belgrade in spring 1999, in support of Kosovo's independence. Legally, Kosovo is an autonomous region of Serbia, but in practicality it is a NATO protectorate, the love child of Madeline Albright’s and Richard Holbrooke’s air campaign. </p>
<p>Among the casualties of that air war was Serbian enthusiasm for all things American and European. The isolated, rump republic of 11 million Serbs has become an orphanage of disaffected Europeans who remain locked away from Western prosperity with a stillborn economy.</p>
<p>In theory, Serbia, the nearby republics of Macedonia and Montenegro, and perhaps even a new republic in Kosovo were to rise into the middle class through membership in the European Union. In reality, the EU has no more appetite for Serbia’s tottering banks or pig farms than it does for more Greek debentures.</p>
<p><B>Bulgaria:</b> Sofia, the capital, is 225 miles from Belgrade, the same distance as Boston is from New York City, but my meandering sleeper took twelve hours to make the overnight trip, which included several hours at dawn on the Serbian-Bulgarian border, the site of many Balkan wars.</p>
<p>Carved from the Ottoman Empire at the 1878 Treaty of Berlin, Bulgaria could rightfully claim to be both the last piece on the European chess board and the best barometer of EU efficacy in the twenty-first century. Some polls say it is the most unhappy EU member. As a city, Sofia is a pleasant combination of socialist realism, Balkan impressionism, and a few modern glass towers. </p>
<p>I first visited it in summer 1976, when Bulgaria was hewing the Marxist line with Stalinist devotion. Now, in summer 2016, the oppression comes from a hybrid form of capitalism that mixes Leninist sympathies with mafia business practices. No wonder the EU isn’t in any rush to bring the euro to Bulgaria, although the country is a member of the confederation.</p>
<p>Bulgaria's political dilemma is that its gas is a hostage to fortunes in Russia and Ukraine (where all the pipelines originate), while its subsidies and regulations come from Brussels.</p>
<p align="center">***</p>
<p>Sadly, I doubt the EU will last much longer. Brexit marks the ebb tide of European optimism, and part of the reason the British voted themselves out is a wish to send home Hungarian, Slovak, and Bulgarian immigrants who despair of making a living in their own countries.</p>
<p>Brexit is also a diplomatic move in the increasing cold war between Western Europe and Islam, whose fault lines run precisely through Bosnia, Albania, Bulgaria, Macedonia, and Turkey.</p>
<p>When the Brexit vote took place, Europe was in the midst of a terror spree that had Muslim fanatics opening fire on shoppers in a Munich mall and driving a truck through a Nice street fair on Bastille Day. Is it any wonder that Britain, staring at refugees camped out in Calais, would raise the draw bridge?</p>
<p>Brexit is also a victory for Putin’s Russia and its gangster capitalism. Until the invasions of Crimea and Ukraine, Russia felt encircled by NATO in Turkey and by the EU in the Baltic States. Now, however, Europe has the look of what diplomatic histories used to call a “dead letter,” leaving much of Eastern Europe vulnerable to a modern Russian Risorgimento. </p>
<p>In the EU, only Germany is earning any money, and it is only a matter of time before Angela Merkel is voted out of office. A new leader there — appealing to nationalist sentiments — will ask German voters, “Why are you working for 4.5 years, on average, to pay the subsidies that are handed out to lazy Spaniards, Greeks, and Italians?”</p>
<p>As someone who admired the European Union, riding trains from Zurich to Sofia reminded me of the downside of old Europe. I hated changing money in train stations, and being woken up by border guards at forlorn crossings like Dimitrograd (Serbia) or Kalotina (Bulgaria). More disturbing was to see, in Belgrade parks or along rail lines, Syrian refugees living like cattle that is drifting north across an arid plain. </p>
<p>The EU was created to embrace free trade and freedom of movement across a continent of 400 million that, in the past, has failed to compensate for overlapping national claims by adjusting borders.</p>
<p>Brexit is one overt expression of dissatisfaction with Europe. But EU failures can also be seen across countries that have changed little since Bismarck, an early Pan-European, said the Balkans were not "worth the bones" of a single Prussian grenadier.</p>
<p><i>Matthew Stevenson, a contributing editor of Harper’s Magazine, is the author of, among other books <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0970913362?ie=UTF8&amp;tag=newgeogrcom-20&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=0970913362">Remembering the Twentieth Century Limited</a><img src="http://www.assoc-amazon.com/e/ir?t=newgeogrcom-20&amp;l=as2&amp;o=1&amp;a=0970913362" width="1" height="1" border="0" alt="" style="border:none !important; margin:0px !important;" /></a>, and <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0970913389/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=390957&amp;creativeASIN=0970913389&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=newgeogrcom-20">Whistle-Stopping America</a>. His next book, Reading the Rails, is due out in August. He lives in Switzerland.</p>
<p>Flickr photo by sbrrmk: <a href="https://flic.kr/p/agENfL">Rhodope Mountains, Bulgaria</a></i></p>
http://www.newgeography.com/content/005357-eastern-europe-heads-for-a-brave-old-world#commentsEuropeThu, 18 Aug 2016 01:38:59 -0400Matthew Stevenson5357 at http://www.newgeography.comCommie Skin Jobshttp://www.newgeography.com/content/005342-commie-skin-jobs
<p>This is Riga, Latvia. The Baltic Republics had a particularly difficult time during the twentieth century with Nazi Germany invading in 1941 and Soviet Russia occupying them until 1991. What had been a prosperous group of small Scandinavian style countries became relatively impoverished and isolated.</p>
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<p>This is Riga, Latvia. The Baltic Republics had a particularly difficult time during the twentieth century with Nazi Germany invading in 1941 and Soviet Russia occupying them until 1991. What had been a prosperous group of small Scandinavian style countries became relatively impoverished and isolated.</p>
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<p>This is nothing new. The Baltic has been repeatedly dominated by larger nations since the 1200&rsquo;s. Riga is equidistant from both Berlin and Moscow. It&rsquo;s a rough neighborhood and it seems likely there will be more such impositions in the future. The region is too important to left alone. But the people will adapt as they always have.</p>
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<p>Between the various wars and occupations when the country was allowed to flourish on its own Latvia proved to be industrious and highly cultured. The buildings that survived the tumults of history attest to the quality of the people, economy, and place.</p>
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<p>It was a matter of national pride for the Latvian people to completely restore the historic core of Riga after the Soviets left things in Havana style dishevelment. This is their homeland and the repository of their culture, language, music, and history. It was also an excellent business model. The city is a dynamic and highly profitable venue for foreign investment, trade, and tourism. Every inch of the old city is productive.</p>
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<p>But then there&rsquo;s all that left over communist stuff ringing the city. What exactly do you do with it all? Pulling it down and replacing it is too expensive. And many of these buildings are occupied by ethnic Russians not Latvians. (Latvia is a quarter Russian as a result of the Soviet occupation, but the city of Riga is closer to half Russian.)</p>
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<p>This was top down bureaucratic central planning at its finest. Residential buildings were isolated from industry and from each other for health and safety. Operating a business of any kind in these apartment buildings was strictly forbidden. Tightly regulated shops were provided at convenient but segregated locations. Highly consolidated schools and isolated office and manufacturing parks were constructed in their own little pods at some distance.</p>
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<p>The preservation of green open space was a hallmark of Soviet design. Grass and trees were necessary for recreation, health, and social tranquility. There&rsquo;s also a coincidental side effect of this kind of land use planning that worked in favor of central authority. Where exactly would people organize a protest rally in this environment? There is no prominent central square or iconic rallying point. What exactly would the rebel cry be here? <em>Rise up and storm the shrubbery!</em></p>
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<p>Honestly it&rsquo;s not that different from American suburbia. Communists just preferred concrete tower blocks to wood framed tract homes. If you&rsquo;ve ever been inside an original 1947 Levittown house then you&rsquo;ve essentially been inside one of these Soviet apartments. I spent a chunk of my childhood in a beige stucco apartment in Los Angeles that was nearly identical on the inside. The kitchens are small, there&rsquo;s only one bath, the ceilings are low, there&rsquo;s no craft or workmanship in the architecture. It&rsquo;s utilitarian. It&rsquo;s not terrible. People can and do live perfectly comfortable lives in these places. It&rsquo;s just bland and there&rsquo;s never anything to do in the neighborhood. It&rsquo;s the precise opposite of the historic city center. No tourist ever ventures out to this part of town and you&rsquo;ll never see photos of these neighborhoods in brochures.</p>
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<p>So here&rsquo;s what the pragmatic Latvians are doing. First, these inherited communist buildings are given a quick skin job. They&rsquo;re scrubbed clean, fitted with new cupboards and fixtures, painted, given new windows and doors, and generally made to feel fresh. If you squint these buildings look like the lesser offerings of 1960s Sweden or Germany. There are worse places to live in the world. A tidy apartment in a boring suburb of Riga is what some people genuinely prefer. There&rsquo;s plenty on offer here for them. And there isn&rsquo;t much else that can be done with these places.</p>
<p><em>John Sanphillippo lives in San Francisco and blogs about urbanism, adaptation, and resilience at <a href="http://granolashotgun.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">granolashotgun.com</a>. He's a member of the Congress for New Urbanism, films videos for <a href="http://faircompanies.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">faircompanies.com</a>, and is a regular contributor to <a href="http://strongtowns.org/" rel="nofollow">Strongtowns.org</a>. He earns his living by buying, renovating, and renting undervalued properties in places that have good long term prospects. He is a graduate of Rutgers University</em>.</p>
http://www.newgeography.com/content/005342-commie-skin-jobs#commentsUrban IssuesEuropeHousingSat, 30 Jul 2016 01:38:43 -0400John Sanphillippo5342 at http://www.newgeography.comChallenging Nordic Mythshttp://www.newgeography.com/content/005318-challenging-nordic-myths
<p>Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders and numerous other American politicians want to increase taxes, regulate businesses and create a society where government takes responsibility for many aspects of daily life. If you are sick, the public sector should pay for your treatment and give you sick leave benefits. If you quit your job, taxpayers should support you. If you have a low income, the government should transfer money from your neighbor who has a better job.</p>
<p>The ideal is a society in which the state makes sure that those who work and those who don’t have a similar living standard. These are classical socialist ideas, or as Bernie Sanders himself would explain, the core ideas of social democracy.</p>
<p>Social democracy is becoming increasingly popular among Leftists in the United States. An important reason is that positive role models exist. In fact, a number of countries with social democratic policies — namely, the Nordic nations — have seemingly become everything that the Left would like America to be: prosperous yet equal, and with good social outcomes. Bernie Sanders has said, “I think we should look to countries like Denmark, like Sweden and Norway and learn from what they have accomplished for their working people.”</p>
<p>At first glance, it is not difficult to understand the Left’s admiration for Nordic-style democratic socialism. These countries combine relatively high living standards with low poverty, long life spans and equal income distribution — everything the Left would like America to have. The Left, however, is simply failing to understand the reasons why Nordic societies are so successful. The reason is not large welfare states, but rather a unique culture. </p>
<p><i>Debunking Utopia – Exposing the myth of Nordic socialism</i>, my new book, details the situation. Many people seem to forget that Nordic countries have not always had large welfare states. During the latter half of the nineteenth century and the first half of the twentieth century, these places were shining examples of small government systems that combined open trade policies with free labor markets and a dynamic market system.</p>
<p>Today, Denmark, for example, stands out as having the highest tax rate among developed nations. But in 1960 the tax rate in the country was merely 25 per cent, lower than 27 percent in the US at the time. In Sweden, the rate was 29 percent, only slightly higher than the US. </p>
<p>During this time, the Nordic countries had already developed equal income distributions, long life spans, low child mortality rates, and high levels of prosperity. The reason is simple. In order to survive the harsh Nordic climate, the people in this part of the world adapted a rigorous work ethic. The Protestant norms of hard work and individual responsibility combined with a system that emphasized protection of private property, limited government and openness to global markets. Income equality grew and poverty was pushed back, thanks to the wealth creating force of markets. </p>
<p>In 1960, well before large welfare states had been created in Nordic countries, Swedes lived 3.2 years longer than Americans, while Norwegians lived 3.8 years longer. After the Nordic countries introduced universal health care, the difference shrunk: today, it is 2.9 years in Sweden and 2.6 years in Norway. </p>
<p>This fact might surprise those who believe that large welfare states lead to longer life spans. Once we study the issue in depth, however, it becomes clear that the explanation is cultural. Nordic people eat healthy diets, run in forests, and avoid the unhealthy lifestyles of many Americans.</p>
<p>In late 2015, a PBS story entitled "What Can The US Learn From Denmark?" stated, “Danes were excited this week to see their calm and prosperous country thrust into the spotlight of the U.S. presidential race when Democratic hopefuls Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton sparred over whether there’s something Americans can learn from Denmark’s social model.” The story continued, “Danes get free or heavily subsidized health care” and “compensation when they’re unemployed, out sick from work or on parental leave,” adding that they have longer life spans than Americans.</p>
<p>Now, all these statements are certainly true. The only problem is that the story gives the impression that these facts are directly related. Danes have universal healthcare and government compensation when sick. Correspondingly, they live longer than Americans. So, for the US to raise its life expectancy rates, perhaps a Danish model should be adapted? After all, what kind of heartless monster would oppose policies that increase life spans? </p>
<p>Well, as it turns out, Danes lived 2.4 years longer than Americans in 1960 — when Denmark had lower taxes than the US. Today, the difference has shrunk to 1.5 years. Denmark no longer ranks among the top ten countries in the world in terms of lifespan. </p>
<p>Iceland, the Nordic country with the smallest welfare state, has far surpassed Denmark and the other Nordic countries in terms of life span. The explanation for this success is clearly not a large welfare state. Nor is it that the Icelandic people inhabit a pleasant country. Iceland is cold and dark. It has large, barren, volcanic fields which look much like the fictional Mordor of Lord of the Rings. But the Icelandic people enjoy going out in nature. Also, they eat a healthy diet based to a large extent on fish. The lesson is quite simple: Nordic culture, rather than Nordic-style social democracy, explain the social successes in this part of the world.</p>
<p>The American Left has an idealized, and fully unrealistic, vision of social democracy; a belief that if the US adapts a large welfare state it will magically succeed in this way. There is little if any merit to this viewpoint. Today, Nordic-Americans actually outstrip their cousins in the Nordics both in prosperity and social outcomes. </p>
<p>If we look at another broad measure of social success, child mortality, again we find that yes, Nordic countries indeed do have among the lowest levels in the world. But this too was already the case when these countries had small public sectors. As Sweden, Denmark and Norway introduced large welfare states, if anything they fell somewhat in global ranking. Iceland, on the other hand, climbed the ranking. </p>
<p>The conclusion is clear: Nordic social success pre-dates the modern welfare state, and was if anything more pronounced during the small-government era. Perhaps equally interesting is that while Nordic-style democratic socialism is all the rage among Leftist ideologues in the US, the same policies are to a large degree rejected by the people of the Nordic countries themselves. </p>
<p>After seeing his country held up as an example by in the Democratic presidential debate, the Danish prime minister, Lars Løkke, Rasmussen, objected to the skewed image of socialism in his country. In a speech at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, he told students, “I know that some people in the US associate the Nordic model with some sort of socialism. Therefore I would like to make one thing clear. Denmark is far from a socialist planned economy. Denmark is a market economy.” </p>
<p>The remark comes as no surprise. While some US liberals believe that democratic socialism is a flattering label, in the Nordics many are distancing themselves from socialist ideas, pointing out that they, too, embrace the market. In many regards, the Danish government interferes less in the economy than the American government does.</p>
<p>While Denmark does have high taxes and generous welfare policies, today even the Danish Social Democratic Party acknowledges that these policies are slowly eroding responsibility norms, trapping people in welfare dependency and reducing the level of prosperity.</p>
<p>Out of the five Nordic countries, four currently have center-right governments. The only exception is Sweden, in which the Social Democratic Party – which holds the seat of power – has never in its modern history polled as weakly as it does today. Most Swedes vote either for the center-right coalition which wants to reduce the scope of government, or for the right-wing anti-immigration party.</p>
<p>Perhaps these facts are worth pointing out to Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton, the journalists at PBS and numerous other Americans who believe that Nordic-style social democracy will transform America to Shangri-La. </p>
<p><i>Nima Sanandaji is president of the European Centre for Policy Reform and Entrepreneurship. His latest book is </i>Debunking Utopia – Exposing the myth of Nordic socialism. </p>
<p><i>Copenhagen <a href="https://flic.kr/p/wfs24u">Harbor Water Bus</a> by Jacob Surland </i> </p>
http://www.newgeography.com/content/005318-challenging-nordic-myths#commentsEuropeWed, 13 Jul 2016 01:38:16 -0400Nima Sanandaji5318 at http://www.newgeography.comUrban Future: The Revolt Against Central Planninghttp://www.newgeography.com/content/005311-urban-future-the-revolt-against-central-planning
<p>In Milton Keynes, perhaps the most radical of Britain’s post-Second World War “New Towns,” the battle over Brexit and the culture war that it represents is raging hard. There, the consequences of EU immigration policy, of planning instituted by national authority, and of the grassroots yearning to preserve local character have clashed together to shape a platform that may set a precedent for whether central planners or local residents will determine the urban future. </p>
<p>Milton Keynes is unusual for planned cities. Founded in 1967 and having matured in the last few decades, it defies virtually every tenet of contemporary planning orthodoxy. In its day it was a product of Britain’s national planners; despite that, today Milton Keynes drives the country's national planners crazy. Instead of a mixed-use, dense, transit-oriented bastion of urbanism – the predictable and commonly <a href="http://www.rtpi.org.uk/briefing-room/rtpi-blog/land-use,-urban-form-and-infrastructure-the-$1trillion-question/">reiterated goals</a> of many British town planning leaders today – Milton Keynes is exactly the opposite, intentionally. </p>
<p>A modernist experiment, Milton Keynes <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/may/03/struggle-for-the-soul-of-milton-keynes">was planned to be low-density</a>. It was also planned to be auto-oriented, and suburban. Its houses are large, its buildings do not front streets, and its transportation modes are separated by grade: that is, they are at different heights, with different means of transport often moving at different speeds. This is the antithesis of the now-favored idea of “complete” streets. The town's downtown shopping enclave is an inward-facing mall – the largest in Britain – with downtown as a whole designed as a business and commercial center rather than a mixed-use playground. Mixed-use development is clustered in the city’s low-density neighborhoods and villages, all on a grid, rather than scattered with the UK’s more favored randomness.</p>
<p>Milton Keynes was designed to be livable and functional, family-friendly, job-friendly and conducive to convenient mobility. The daily grind, by design, was to bear a closer resemblance to a rural experience than to an urban one. <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XfSoZ6_x7kk">Original advertisements</a> promoted a healthy, carefree lifestyle sheathed in nature, away from the nuisances of the big city. Even the logic of its location, equidistant from Britain’s other large cities, sought convenience over traditional planning rationales. </p>
<p>To those with a one-track view of what a city should be, Milton Keynes is unrecognizable. To these people, the city is bland, sterile, and without the day-to-day vibrancy that defines cities. In many planning texts it has been <a href="http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/4642/">written off as a failure</a>, and to many residents of Britain, Milton Keynes is not a preferred destination.</p>
<p>But in many of the most important metrics that define urban success, Milton Keynes shines. It has virtually no traffic, it attracts lots of families, and it has the <a href="http://www.recruiter.co.uk/news/2015/01/milton-keynes-ranks-top-of-uk-jobs-growth-cities/">highest job growth in the country</a>. Its population has swelled over 20 percent since 2001, over twice the national average, to 255,000 , and its residents ardently defend it. It has built out nearly identically to the original vision, with its millions of trees and lush, anti-urban character earning it the affectionate moniker “Urban Eden”.</p>
<p>Today, however, Milton Keynes faces ever-mounting threats to the integrity of its original character. Thanks to the consequences of EU immigration policy, which spurred population growth in the UK to a level that exceeded housing construction to the tune of <a href="http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3599970/Migrants-spark-housing-crisis-EU-tells-Britain-build-homes-open-borders-send-population-soaring.html">70,000 units a year</a>, or roughly 50 percent, cities like Milton Keynes are under fire to take up their “fair share” of the difference. Although Milton Keynes was originally developed independently through a long-range loan to the Milton Keynes Development Corporation, the nation's housing issue led Britain’s deputy prime minister to effectively lift the city’s self-rule in 2004 in a sweeping authoritarian <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2004/jan/06/regeneration.immigrationpolicy">central takeover</a>.</p>
<p>That move transferred planning authority from local government to a national regeneration authority. The authority promptly set a housing quota for the city based on national targets, and began the task of systematically increasing density, narrowing roads, reducing unit sizes, instilling a transit-oriented ethos, discontinuing the grid, and concocting plans to build new development that directly fronted the street, all at odds with the city’s original masterplan. </p>
<p>The new ideas reflect tenets frequently promoted by the <a href="http://www.rtpi.org.uk/briefing-room/rtpi-blog/land-use,-urban-form-and-infrastructure-the-$1trillion-question/">Royal Town Planning Institute</a>, Britain’s central planning body. The moves reflect what has become a familiar narrative of planner as a high-minded savior and opposition as selfish NIMBY (“not in my backyard”) residents, who lack regard for the broader picture. That Milton Keynes’ defenders are arguing on behalf of a thoughtful vision – one shaped decades ago and misaligned with contemporary planners’ aspirations – is a complicating wrinkle. In contrast to the narrative that the suburbs were an unfortunate accident that have destroyed communities, Milton Keynes’ defenders are trying to save a city that was planned to be suburban and that is successful today, and are defending it by citing affection for its character and sense of community.</p>
<p>Because of Milton Keynes’ unusual design, traditional NIMBY dynamics have been inverted. In a rare twist on the oft-repeated Jane Jacobs narrative of residents against the planners, Milton Keynes’ defenders are fighting for the planned suburban character of their town: a primary complaint is that the central planners promoting density and mixed-use development lack creativity or an understanding of the bigger picture vision that shapes their sense of place, even though the tactics the planners are employing are often advocated using the same argument in reverse. Far from being ad-hoc selfish obstructionists, the Milton Keynes defenders are well-organized and thoughtful: a group called “Urban Eden” offers a well-composed six-point vision as the baseline for <a href="http://urbaneden.org/recent-news/">alternatives to the central plans</a>.</p>
<p>Milton Keynes belies the narrative of a lack of intentionality as a disqualifier for suburbia. More importantly, its future will tell us much about whether creativity and self-determination can continue to exist in Britain at the local scale, and whether the forces that induced Brexit can topple an internal bureaucracy, in addition to an external one. </p>
<p>While local freedoms may ultimately help cities like Milton Keynes preserve their unique character, additional bureaucracy in the UK must be lifted to solve the larger national issue of housing affordability. In particular, Britain should free the private land development market, which has been effectively nationalized since 1947. Britain’s self-imposed shortage of developable land is the primary reason British housing production is well under half what it was <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-30776306">when Milton Keyes was originally conceived</a>. In an ironic twist, if it maintains such strict centralized planning strategies, Britain may continue to choke the character of its cities over the issue of housing production, wielding a national-scale bully pulpit to try to solve a crisis that could perhaps best be solved by eliminating the nationalization of property development altogether.</p>
<p>Brexit offers a lesson to planners world-wide, with Milton Keynes a creative case study of an alternative to the hegemony of contemporary urban planning. While many planners loathe Milton Keynes, many residents like it, and its demonstrable successes suggest it should be a worthy case study. So many planning bodies are dominated by a singular ideology. Instead, a new era of open-mindedness to local creativity should be embraced… lest Britain and the world rise up to circumvent the planners behind a movement with a nickname as catchy as Brexit. </p>
<p><i>Roger Weber is a city planner specializing in global urban and industrial strategy, urban design, zoning, and real estate. He holds a Master’s degree from the Harvard Graduate School of Design. Research interests include fiscal policy, demographics, architecture, housing, and land use. </p>
<p>Flickr photo by Sarah Joy: <a href="https://flic.kr/p/astQYH">Double Rainbow, Milton Keynes</a></i></p>
http://www.newgeography.com/content/005311-urban-future-the-revolt-against-central-planning#commentsEuropeHousingPlanningSmall CitiesSuburbsUnited KingdomThu, 07 Jul 2016 01:38:47 -0400Roger Weber5311 at http://www.newgeography.comEuropean GDP: What Went Wronghttp://www.newgeography.com/content/005310-european-gdp-what-went-wrong
<p><em>First the two world wars, then a decline in the birth rate.</em></p>
<p>Newspapers these days are full of stories on World War I which started 100 years ago. They are also full of stories on today&rsquo;s anemic European economy, as for example with Italy&rsquo;s negative growth rate in the second quarter and France&rsquo;s struggle to reach 1% GDP growth this year. At first blush, these two sets of stories are unrelated. But on closer look, it is apparent that the economy today is a distant echo of the war a century ago. And it all comes down to Europe&rsquo;s demographics.</p>
<p>In my view, there are essentially three main catalysts of economic growth: innovation, demographics, and a favorable institutional framework. To illustrate this, imagine that a firm develops the best smartphone in the world but that there is only a potential market of 1 million buyers. Clearly, the wealth created by this innovation would be far smaller than if the potential market was 100 million buyers. Thus the importance of demographics.</p>
<p>Now imagine that there is a market of 1 billion people but that there is no innovation of any kind. In this case, wealth creation would be greatly stunted and, with few new assets being created, wealth would become essentially a game of trading existing resources. Thus the importance of innovation. Finally, imagine a country where institutions are weak, where contract law is weak, where access to capital is difficult, where the government is corrupt and political risk is high. Here again there would not be much innovation because there would not be much capital or much incentive to innovate. Thus the importance of a favorable institutional framework.</p>
<p><strong>Too many deaths</strong></p>
<p>So going back to Europe, we could say that it has some innovation and that it has a favorable institutional framework, though in both cases to a lesser extent than the United States. What Europe lacks most is a strong demographic driver. It is enlightening in this regard to look at the sizes of European populations in the year 1900 vs. today:</p>
<table width="401" style="border: 1px solid rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px -1px 24px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; border-collapse: collapse; border-spacing: 0px; text-align: left; width: 639px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 24px; orphans: auto; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(255, 255, 255);" bgcolor="rgb(255, 255, 255)">
<tbody style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">
<tr style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">
<td width="113" style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; font-weight: bold; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent"> Population (millions) </strong></td>
<td width="53" style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; font-weight: bold; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">1900</strong></td>
<td width="53" style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; font-weight: bold; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">2014</strong></td>
<td width="53" style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; font-weight: bold; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">Growth</strong></td>
<td width="64" style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; font-weight: bold; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">CAGR</strong></td>
<td width="65" style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; font-weight: bold; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent"> TFR </strong></td>
</tr>
<tr style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; font-weight: bold; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">France</strong></td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">38</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">66</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">74%</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">0.5%</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent"> 1.98</td>
</tr>
<tr style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; font-weight: bold; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">Germany</strong></td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">56</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">81</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">45%</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">0.3%</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent"> 1.42</td>
</tr>
<tr style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; font-weight: bold; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">Italy</strong></td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">32</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">61</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">91%</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">0.6%</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent"> 1.48</td>
</tr>
<tr style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; font-weight: bold; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">Russia</strong></td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">85</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">146</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">72%</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">0.5%</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent"> 1.53</td>
</tr>
<tr style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; font-weight: bold; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">Spain</strong></td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">20.7</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">46.6</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">125%</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">0.7%</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent"> 1.50</td>
</tr>
<tr style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; font-weight: bold; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">United Kingdom</strong></td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">38</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">64</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">68%</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">0.5%</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent"> 1.88</td>
</tr>
<tr style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; font-weight: bold; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">Brazil</strong></td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">17</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">203</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">1094%</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">2.2%</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent"> 1.80</td>
</tr>
<tr style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; font-weight: bold; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">China</strong></td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">415</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">1370</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">230%</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">1.1%</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent"> 1.66</td>
</tr>
<tr style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; font-weight: bold; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">Egypt</strong></td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">8</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">87</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">988%</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">2.1%</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent"> 2.79</td>
</tr>
<tr style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; font-weight: bold; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">India*</strong></td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">271</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">1653</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">510%</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">1.6%</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent"> 2.50</td>
</tr>
<tr style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; font-weight: bold; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">Indonesia</strong></td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">45.5</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">252</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">454%</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">1.5%</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent"> 2.35</td>
</tr>
<tr style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; font-weight: bold; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">Japan</strong></td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">42</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">127</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">202%</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">1.0%</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent"> 1.41</td>
</tr>
<tr style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; font-weight: bold; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">Mexico</strong></td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">12</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">120</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">900%</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">2.0%</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent"> 2.20</td>
</tr>
<tr style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; font-weight: bold; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">Nigeria</strong></td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">16</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">179</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">1019%</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">2.1%</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent"> 6.00</td>
</tr>
<tr style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; font-weight: bold; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">Philippines</strong></td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">8</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">100</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">1150%</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">2.2%</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent"> 3.07</td>
</tr>
<tr style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; font-weight: bold; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">United States</strong></td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">76</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">318</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">318%</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">1.3%</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent"> 1.97</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><em>* includes India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Burma.</em></p>
<p><em>Source: Various, United Nations. </em><em>Data may include errors. Estimates vary due to shifting borders and uneven reporting.</em></p>
<p>Two important points stand out:</p>
<p>First, in 1900, European countries were not only the world&rsquo;s economic and military powers. They were also among the most populous countries in the world. By contrast today, Russia is the only country in the top 10 most populous. Then Germany is 16th and France is 20th. More importantly, some of the new demographic powers, India, Nigeria, Egypt, Mexico, the Philippines and Indonesia, are growing at a healthy clip, as can be seen from their Total Fertility Ratios (TFR, see table) whereas European countries are growing very slowly at TFRs that will ensure stagnation or shrinkage in the sizes of their population. A ranking ten or twenty years from now may show no European countries in the top 20 most populous countries.</p>
<p>Second, comparing European population sizes in 2014 vs. 1900 reveals a very slow annual increase in the 114 year period. And this is where the effects of the two World Wars, of the Spanish Influenza and of communism can be seen. Populations have grown with a CAGR of less than 1% per year for the last 114 years.</p>
<p>The United States had fewer casualties in the two World Wars, more immigration and a strong post-war baby boom, resulting in a healthy 1.3% population CAGR and a near quadrupling of the population over the past 114 years. However, as <a href="https://populyst.net/2012/04/05/america-heading-towards-zero-population-growth/">I wrote previously</a>, the US faces slower, sub 1% population growth in the next few decades.</p>
<p>Here is the tally of deaths for some countries in the two World Wars:</p>
<table width="293" style="border: 1px solid rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px -1px 24px 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; border-collapse: collapse; border-spacing: 0px; text-align: left; width: 639px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: Georgia, 'Bitstream Charter', serif; font-size: 16px; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; line-height: 24px; orphans: auto; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: 1; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; background: rgb(255, 255, 255);" bgcolor="rgb(255, 255, 255)">
<tbody style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">
<tr style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">
<td width="113" style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; font-weight: bold; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent"> Millions of deaths </strong></td>
<td width="45" style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; font-weight: bold; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">WW1</strong></td>
<td width="45" style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; font-weight: bold; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">% of pop</strong></td>
<td width="45" style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; font-weight: bold; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">WW2</strong></td>
<td width="45" style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; font-weight: bold; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">% of pop</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; font-weight: bold; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent"> France </strong></td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent"> 1.7</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">4.3%</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent"> 0.6</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">1.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; font-weight: bold; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent"> Germany </strong></td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent"> 2.8</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">4.3%</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent"> 8.0</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">10.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; font-weight: bold; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent"> Italy </strong></td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent"> 1.2</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">3.3%</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent"> 0.5</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">1.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; font-weight: bold; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent"> Soviet Union </strong></td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent"> 3.1</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">1.8%</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">22.0</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">14.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; font-weight: bold; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent"> UnitedKingdom </strong></td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent"> 1.0</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">2.0%</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent"> 0.5</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">0.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; font-weight: bold; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent"> United States </strong></td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent"> 0.1</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">0.1%</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent"> 0.4</td>
<td style="border-width: 1px 0px 0px; border-top-style: solid; border-top-color: rgb(231, 231, 231); margin: 0px; padding: 6px 24px; vertical-align: baseline; background: transparent;" bgcolor="transparent">0.3%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><em>Source: Various. Estimates vary widely and may include errors.</em></p>
<p>Estimates of deaths from the Spanish Influenza of 1918-19 vary widely from 20 to 50 million people worldwide. And Stalin&rsquo;s purges are estimated to have killed over 20 million. Tens of millions of people and a larger number of descendants would have been added to today&rsquo;s European population had these events not occurred. <a href="https://populyst.net/2013/02/22/europe-was-is-it-worth-the-trouble/">I made the case last year</a> that Europe&rsquo;s economies and markets suffer from weak domestic demand and have for a long time been driven by events outside of Europe itself.</p>
<p><strong>Too few births</strong></p>
<p>In general, a large number of countries are facing a more challenging demographic period in the next fifty years compared to the last fifty. Since the 1970s, there had been a steady decline in the dependency ratios (the sum of people under 14 and over 65 divided by the number of people aged 15 to 64) of the US, Western Europe, China and others. This decline is explained by a lower birth rate and was accelerated by large numbers of women joining the work force in several countries. There were fewer dependents and more bread winners than in previous decades.</p>
<p>In future years, dependency ratios are expected to rise due to the aging of the population in most countries and a decline in the number of workers per dependent. In the United States for example, baby boomers are swelling the number of dependents who rely on younger generations to support them in retirement (whether through taxes or through buoyant economy and stock market). But because boomers had fewer children than their parents, the burden on these children will be that much greater than it was on the boomers themselves.</p>
<p>In effect, our demographics have pulled forward prosperity from future years. Had there been more children in the West in the 1970-2000 period, there would have been less overall prosperity during that time, but we would now look forward to stronger domestic demand and a stronger economy going forward.</p>
<p>Note in the table below that the dependency ratio of Japan bottomed around 1990 which is the year when its stock market reached its all-time high; and that the dependency ratios in Europe and the US bottomed a few years ago around the time when stock markets reached their 2007 highs. The fact that several stock indices are now at higher peaks than in 2007 can be largely credited to America&rsquo;s faster pace of innovation and to near-zero interest rates. Case in point: Apple&rsquo;s market value has more than tripled since 2007.</p>
<p><a href="https://populyst.files.wordpress.com/2014/11/dependencyratios.jpg"><img src="https://populyst.files.wordpress.com/2014/11/dependencyratios.jpg?w=640" alt="DependencyRatios" width="595" height="142"></a></p>
<p>India will soon be the most populous country in the world but because its dependency ratio is still declining, its growth profile may improve in future years. The same is true of Subsaharan Africa where the fertility rate is still high but declining steadily thanks to improved health care for women and declining infant mortality. As such both India and Subsaharan Africa could see faster economic growth than elsewhere, provided the institutional framework can be improved towards less corruption and more efficiency.</p>
<p>Europe is in a bind in the sense that, even if it had the wherewithal to do so, it cannot now raise its birth rate without making its demographic situation worse in the near term (by raising its dependency ratio faster). For the foreseeable future, its economy will become even more dependent on exports towards the United States and emerging markets. The new frontier for European exports may well be in the old colonies of the Indian subcontinent and of Subsaharan Africa.</p>
<p><em>Sami Karam is the founder and editor of <a href="http://populyst.net/">populyst.net</a> and the creator of the populyst index™. populyst is about innovation, demography and society. Before populyst, he was the founder and manager of the Seven Global funds and a fund manager at leading asset managers in Boston and New York. In addition to a finance MBA from the Wharton School, he holds a Master's in Civil Engineering from Cornell and a Bachelor of Architecture from UT Austin.</em></p>
<p>Lead photo 4 August 1914 (via Wikipedia)</p>
http://www.newgeography.com/content/005310-european-gdp-what-went-wrong#commentsDemographicsEconomicsEuropeSat, 02 Jul 2016 01:38:35 -0400Sami Karam5310 at http://www.newgeography.comWorking Class British Voters Led the European Union Rejection http://www.newgeography.com/content/005302-working-class-british-voters-led-european-union-rejection
<p>On Thursday night the first results from Britain&rsquo;s referendum on pulling out of the European Union came in. </p>
<p>A small clue to the way things were going last night was the vote in the North East. </p>
<p>People in Newcastle are known locally as 'takems' (said with a short a, like tack um); those in Sunderland are called 'makems'. It means that people in Sunderland make things and people in Newcastle take them. Sunderland is solidly industrial, while Newcastle, also a big industrial centre, is a market town. Newcastle voted to remain, but by the tiniest of margins. Sunderland voted to leave, 60-40. That was when we began to think that – not for the first time – the polls had got it wrong. </p>
<p>As the night wore on the results came in, defying the pollster&rsquo;s determination that the people would reject the referendum question and stick with the European Union. </p>
<p>Of London Boroughs, Barking voted to leave, too. It was historically a &lsquo;white flight&rsquo; borough, but today it is thronging with Poles and Africans. It is very working class. Islington, by contrast, was overwhelmingly for stay. Islington has working class wards, though these are mostly demoralised, and the borough deserves its reputation for being dominated by a precociously radical middle class. </p>
<p>Most of all the vote is a popular reaction against the elite. Their view that the European Union is not for them is right. I have taken students to the Brussels Parliament, which is a bit like visiting the offices of the IMF. The only people that you see hanging around outside and waiting to see someone, are themselves very haut bourgeois. By contrast, if you go to the Palace of Westminster, you will see large crowds of school children, nurses, veterans, and ethnic minorities. Parliament is often very bad in its decisions and its cliquishness, but the people do look to it in a way that they will never look on Brussels. That law making should have passed so silently and sneakily off to the European Commission is not something that ordinary British people approve of, and they are right. </p>
<p>The British Labour movement protested against the Maastricht Treaty back in 1991 that created the EU, and had already been committed to a position of withdrawing from the preceding EEC. Labour's heartlands were in agreement. Over time, though, the temptation of the 'European Social Chapter', and the trade union leaders' resentment at the Tories opt-out of that did tempt some labour leaders (though not their members) to support the EU. That in itself is a symptom of the unions' loss of influence in their own right; they hoped that their European friends would offer them what their own campaigning could not. </p>
<p>As the Labour Party became more distant, metropolitan and elitist, it sought to re-write the party's policy to mirror its own concerns, and also to diminish working people's aspirations for social democratic reform in their favour. They got rid of the socialist clause in the party's constitution, Clause 4, diminished union leaders' say so in making party policy, and, symbolically, they changed the party's position on Europe from withdrawal to positive support. For younger graduates in London who were the party's activists, that all seemed to make sense, but a chasm was opening up between the party and its working class redoubts in the Midlands and the North of England. </p>
<p>There are many facets to this disaffection. People are angry about the NHS. Some of the mood of hostility towards Blair's government was attached to the Iraq War. </p>
<p>Latterly, the question of immigration became one that the labour voters came to distrust the Labour leadership on. In private the Cabinet did indeed talk about encouraging wide scale immigration, with the ambition of making the Conservative Party unelectable, by creating a 'multicultural' country. In a telling moment in the 2010 election Gordon Brown was caught by a radio mike complaining about a voter whom he had been introduced to. &lsquo;That bigoted woman&rsquo;, he called her. Suddenly everyone could hear the snobbery in his prissy voice. &lsquo;Bigoted&rsquo; here was code for common, uneducated, or perhaps even &lsquo;unwashed&rsquo;. </p>
<p>The EU issue was initially raised by the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP), which is to say the grassroots of the Conservative Party, peeling away from David Cameron's leadership. UKIP in that way are a mirror image of the disaffection of the Labour vote. In time, UKIP candidates got some support in Labour constituencies. That was a clue that the disaffection of the Labour vote was about to form itself up around the referendum. </p>
<p>Asked by pollsters why they had voted to leave the EU, some said it was immigration. But more said that it was the question of democracy. This is a word that seems to mean very little to the academics, government officials, constitutional lawyers and politicians, and yet, strangely, means a great deal to those whose access to it is most limited – the greater mass of the British public. </p>
<p>Depressingly, the sulking metropolitans and &lsquo;opinion formers&rsquo; (Ha!) dismissed this revolt of the lower orders as nothing more than race prejudice. But that says more about those that say it than those that it is said of. To them almost every expression of popular sentiment feels like fascism. They see fascism in the support for the English football team, and lurking in the bad tempered rants of &lsquo;white van man&rsquo; as he makes his deliveries. An old drunk on a bus says something mean about immigrants and he is pilloried on YouTube and Facebook as the latest sign of incipient fascism. </p>
<p>What they usually mean is that the common people have spoken, and spoken clumsily, without the tortuous manners of the intersectional left. But by and large the exiters were not angry with migrants so much as they were angry with the established order. </p>
<p>A tipping point was the publication of a letter on the front page of the Times, signed by leading businessmen demanding &lsquo;remain&rsquo;. This came hot on the heels of the claims that all economists (the same ones who had told us that there was no danger of an economic meltdown in 2008) were for remain. Before that the leaders of all the major parties lined up to say that remain was the only viable result. </p>
<p>Elsewhere in Europe we have seen this kind of consensus form up. The last time was around the proposed EU Constitution in 2004/5. As every respectable voice made it plain that the Constitution effectively making the EU into a superstate was needed, the ordinary people revolted. In referenda in France and Denmark it was rejected. The project was in tatters. The very solidity of the establishment behind the EU Constitution was the thing that sunk it. If this shower are for it, thought the mass of the people, then it must be rubbish. So it was with the EU referendum in Britain on 23 June. The solidity of the establishment case for staying was probably what decided the majority to leave. </p>
<p>The &lsquo;out&rsquo; decision leaves many questions. The traders have attacked the pound – well, they had made it clear that they did not like exit, so we can expect them to try to punish the voters. We will weather it, and the economy&rsquo;s underlying strength will make them come back for sterling later on. &nbsp;Shame on them. </p>
<p>It is by no means clear that the vote to leave will lead to an actual &lsquo;exit&rsquo;. The prolonged process of leaving set out in the EU Treaty is effectively a &lsquo;cooling off&rsquo; period, and a confident political leader – perhaps Boris Johnson, the star of the exit campaign – might well be tempted by some reforms. The EU itself will be shaken by the vote, and there are already signs that its leaders are moving away from the Federal structure of the Union in favour of a looser, intergovernmental agreement, that would allow greater sovereignty for its member states. That much is just an obvious attempt to accommodate what is already a groundswell of opposition to the Union that is much wider than Britain, taking in France, Spain, Greece and Portugal. </p>
<p>One thing is for sure: the vote shows that very few of the experts, the academics, the media, lawyers and politicians have any insight into the will of the people, or even understand the meaning of the words sovereignty and democracy. </p>
<p><em>James Heartfield is author of The European Union and the End of Politics and an historian and political scientist based in London.</em></p>
<p><em>Photo by flickr user <a href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/dgeezer/27792525851/in/photolist-JkVXEc-J2fJpu-J3LwxC-EsUHK4-JqeL39-JtCeWn-Jji9Aw-Jq1ecC-J2RZMV-JqZLJR-JsTUk2-Jjccfm-JjiMNG-J45EQU-J3TTKo-AVZDxh-JmTa1Z-JogbS9-JiUNk5-JtsuP8-DtRWqS-GZUSWs-Jscd5T-JtaKNF-Hrt6ZU-J3vULW-Goxtor-JqGoJd-jMhm83-pgaDi6-HxrD7f-Hx6G1m-JjaQHm-FKL715-oBvzpe-nzdi73-JmY52k-eWRoBH-GKeGaQ-o9Gb3M-GYkVKz-pfFsxD-oMWky5-ohQA9o-JmZPxX-ok8Ggj-Ej9cAo-p4oSQH-oaH7D9-J4aWoC">Diamond Geezer</a> licensed under Creative Commons.</em></p>
http://www.newgeography.com/content/005302-working-class-british-voters-led-european-union-rejection#commentsMiddle ClassEuropeLondonPoliticsUnited KingdomFri, 24 Jun 2016 15:33:02 -0400James Heartfield5302 at http://www.newgeography.com