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After the US, Australia is a major wheat exporter, along with Argentina, France, Russia and Ukraine.

The local harvest is under way and will continue across different regions over the next six weeks.

“On the supply side, most of the weather risks have now passed. The remaining risk is the possibility of a heavy dump of rain across the wheat belt in NSW and Victoria just before harvest, as happened in November 2010," Mr Deane said.

“That would cause the wheat to sprout, changing the protein structure in a way that makes it unsuitable for bread-making and only able to be sold at a cheaper price for animal feed.

“But it is pretty much in the bag that Australia will have 18 million tonnes of wheat to export this season."

Indonesia, the main buyer of ­Australian wheat, is expected to buy 5 million tonnes and China is likely to also take 4 million to 5 million tonnes this year, which will leave supply for the rest of the Asian region quite tight, Mr Deane said.

“India and China are both large wheat-producing nations but have ­traditionally consumed the bulk of their harvests. But China has become a net importer of grains over the past two to three years as it has ramped up corn imports and this year has significantly increased wheat imports."

He predicts this year China will import 10 million tonnes of wheat for the first time in at least 20 years.

While Russia and Ukraine are important global suppliers selling wheat to Africa, Europe and the Mediterranean, the freight costs mean they tend not to compete with the US and Australia for the Asian market. Chicago Wheat Futures are trading between $US6.40 and $US6.50 per bushel.

ANZ forecasts the price will strengthen slightly to between $US6.60 to $US6.80 per bushel over the next two quarters, with a 12-month price forecast of $US6.80 to $US7 per bushel.