Today we can vaguely see the HL tourney bracket finally start to take shape.

YSU is playing good ball, and while they will most likely take losses at NKU and WSU, the rest of their remaining schedule is at home and not against top teams. Plus they end the season at home against CSU for an almost guaranteed win. I think YSU is in.

Which, as of now, makes it look like we could be fighting Milwaukee for the final spot (wow, how things have changed since that 3-0 start!). If Milwaukee takes a loss at CSU today (55% probability per ESPN) then it looks nearly certain that Milwaukee and CSU will be the two teams ending their seasons on the first weekend of March.

If we take a loss at WSU today (86% probability) and Milwaukee does in fact win today, the ramifications for our game AT Milwaukee on Valentine’s Day are obvious.

"Anything that can be done in college basketball can be done from right here.” - Coach Davis

Tacitus651 wrote:Today we can vaguely see the HL tourney bracket finally start to take shape.

YSU is playing good ball, and while they will most likely take losses at NKU and WSU, the rest of their remaining schedule is at home and not against top teams. Plus they end the season at home against CSU for an almost guaranteed win. I think YSU is in.

Which, as of now, makes it look like we could be fighting Milwaukee for the final spot (wow, how things have changed since that 3-0 start!). If Milwaukee takes a loss at CSU today (55% probability per ESPN) then it looks nearly certain that Milwaukee and CSU will be the two teams ending their seasons on the first weekend of March.

If we take a loss at WSU today (86% probability) and Milwaukee does in fact win today, the ramifications for our game AT Milwaukee on Valentine’s Day are obvious.

It's pretty good when the outcome of a game depends on the officiating crew assigned to a game. We start the season with the league knowing nothing of Davis. He does really well against non con. teams. We enter into league play and we win two on the road. We come home and we blow out Wright State in a game that is tightly called. Brennan brings his Norsemen to Calihan with a game plan of blocking cuts, holding and clutching. AD is mugged, the game is loosely officiated and the template for the rest of the season is formed. Coach Davis starts getting tech's and states correctly that he has to coach the team to do things differently, but it's hard to do when what you were originally doing was correct. As far as the tourney I think the purpose of the whole season is to send the best team to the tourney to represent the league with the hope that they will do well and the league and its members will benefit. With the games all being played on Indy's home court they have gained an advantage and will profit from the homer switch. When they have a decent team they will have an unfair advantage against teams that would be better representatives of the league. This will be even more of an incentive for members to exit. I can not help but wonder if this was in the plans from the minute that IUPUI became a member.

Cleveland State is taking care of business, up on Milwaukee 46-37 at the half. If the Vikings can keep them pinned down for the second half, I’d say it’s extremely likely they are the two teams not going to the little horizon league dance.

"Anything that can be done in college basketball can be done from right here.” - Coach Davis

Milwaukee lost and sits at 4-8. Even if they can somehow pick up wins against us and Oakland on their home court, they’d probably need a total implosion of us or YSU to make the HL tourney.

One interesting dynamic of the tourney is the reasonably good chance that we will face NKU as a 1v8 or 2v7. That matchup would take place at NKU. This after coach was reportedly swearing at the NKU fans after Thursday’s loss and saying we will be back next year. Truth is, we could be back in about three weeks.

"Anything that can be done in college basketball can be done from right here.” - Coach Davis

Tacitus651 wrote:Milwaukee lost and sits at 4-8. Even if they can somehow pick up wins against us and Oakland on their home court, they’d probably need a total implosion of us or YSU to make the HL tourney.

One interesting dynamic of the tourney is the reasonably good chance that we will face NKU as a 1v8 or 2v7. That matchup would take place at NKU. This after coach was reportedly swearing at the NKU fans after Thursday’s loss and saying we will be back next year. Truth is, we could be back in about three weeks.

You may be overly optimistic, Tacitus. If Milwaukee beats us on their home court on Thursday, they'll be just a half game back on us.

But consider that if Milwaukee did beat us, they would sit at 5-8 and we would sit at 6-8. Milwaukee will then host OU, play tough games on the road at IUPUI and UIC before hosting the two top teams of NKU and WSU. After us, it’s a very tough stretch. I realize Milwaukee beat OU earlier, but it’s still just really hard to see Milwaukee getting 6 conference wins, and I think it’s also hard seeing us not find a 7th win (I think we are good for a win when we host IUPUI and UIC at the very end).

Of course, it’s HL basketball and anything can happen. If we lose on Thursday then we are a team really on the skids and Milwaukee is a team ... not on the rise ... I don’t know, they’re something.

"Anything that can be done in college basketball can be done from right here.” - Coach Davis

Just like that we are back at .500 and pretty much guaranteed a spot in the HL tourney. There are a lot of teams with 7 in the win column. It would be great to finish higher than 7th place to avoid NKU and WSU in the first round. The next two road games are tough - would be nice to get one of them.

"Anything that can be done in college basketball can be done from right here.” - Coach Davis