Sunday, December 01, 2013

The families have gone home, the turkey carcass has been
picked clean.The stuffing, the
potatoes, the green bean casserole, the pumpkin pie but a memory.As for the Washington Capitals this Turkey
Week, weeks from now folks will look back on Week 9 and think, “hmm…pretty
good.”That’s why they say, “it’s not how,
it’s how many” when it comes to wins and losses.Because, even though it was a winning week,
it smelled like week-old leftovers.

Record: 2-1-0

By the end of Week 9 the Caps were back to winning weeks, this
one being their sixth in their last seven after opening the season with two
losing weeks.It would have been much
better if the Caps remembered in their first game of the week that a hockey
game is played for 60 minutes.Washington took a 3-1 lead over the Ottawa Senators 15 minutes into
their game last Wednesday and held it into the 27th minute of the
contest.Over the following 20 minutes,
though, the Senators would score three times to take a lead. They would survive a tying
goal by John Carlson, then win going away with a pair of goals in the last
three minutes, 6-4.

The Caps looked hardly better in their two wins, both in
extra time, giving the Caps the most extra-time wins in the league (eight) and,
with their trick shot win on Friday, the league lead in Gimmick wins
(six).What that meant was that while
the two wins were welcome, the Caps finished the week ahead of only three teams
in the Eastern Conference in regulation time and overtime wins.Keep that in mind now that the Caps reside in
seventh place in the Conference, only two points ahead of Philadelphia (11 ROW)
in the Metropolitan Division and behind the two leading wild card teams in
points, Detroit (33) and Toronto (31).

Offense: 3.00/game (season: 2.82 / rank:9th)

It was a “meh” week for the Caps on offense, despite the
three goals per game.A third of those
goals came when they sped out to that 3-1 lead against Ottawa in the first game
of the week.That offense came from
welcome sources not often heard from this season.Eric Fehr started things off for the week
with his second goal of the season in what was only his second game back in the
lineup after missing nine contests to healthy scratches.Marcus Johansson was next with his third of
the season and first in nine games on a power play.Brooks Laich got his fourth for the season,
his second in six games after potting only two in his first 19 contests.

After that, though, it was a pretty dry week – six goals
over more than 170 minutes of hockey.Part of it was the infrequent dry spells had by Alex Ovechkin and
Nicklas Backstrom, who came to life just in time to save the week.Backstrom scored the game-tying goal while the
Caps were shorthanded with less than a minute left in regulation against the
New York Islanders, Ovechkin getting the overtime winner in that game. For each
it was his only goal of the week.For
Backstrom it was his first goal in 13 games, while for Ovechkin it snapped a
consecutive games streak without a goal (two straight) that he has not
experienced in three weeks and restored him to the top spot in the league in
goals scored (21).It was Eric Fehr,
however, who led the Caps in goals (two) and points (three, tied with Mikhail
Grabovski) this week.

Defense: 3.33/game (season: 2.82 / rank: 21st)

The shot totals against keep climbing for the Caps.This week Washington allowed 119 shots on
goal (39.7 per game).It was an odd
week, though.Those 119 shots came on
193 shot attempts, hardly a large volume for almost 190 minutes of hockey for
the week.That 61.7 percent of the shots
attempted made it on goal is, at one level, an argument that the Caps allowed
their goalies a good long look – by hockey standards – at shots.As it was, the Caps still allowed 31.7 even strength
shots per game.By itself that average
would leave the Caps with only eight teams with more shots allowed per game for
the season.

It was an interesting week overall.There were 18 different skaters on ice for at
least one goal, 16 of them on ice for at least one even-strength goal.As to the latter, six Caps were on ice for
half of those six even-strength goals.Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Troy Brouwer, and Mikhail Grabovski
represented the forwards in that crew; John Carlson and Nate Schmidt the
defensemen.

The odd part of the week at 5-on-5 was blocked shots.This, as you fancystat mavens know, is what
separates Corsi (which includes them) from Fenwick (which does not).The Caps
teetered on the 50-50 margin for the week in both measures over the three
games.However, while the Caps were on
the good side of 50 percent on 5-on-5 Corsi for two of the three games, they
were on the wrong side on Fenwick in all three.It was consistent with their 5-on-5 close situations where the Caps were
above 50 percent in all three games on Corsi (51.9 percent overall) and below
50 percent in two of three games on Fenwick (49.1 percent overall).What it meant is that at 5-on-5 overall and
5-on-5 close situations the Caps were below 50 percent in shots on goal in all three games and overall.

It was Braden Holtby’s week, although that was not the plan.Michal Neuvirth was to get the start in the
middle game of the week, the day after Thanksgiving against Montreal.But when he came out to take pre-game warmups,
he stepped onto the ice and appeared to take a misstep that left him in
considerable discomfort.He retreated
immediately to the locker room, his week done.That left the Caps turning to their video coach by day, emergency
goaltender by night to serve as backup – Brett Leonhardt…

(photo via Sergey Kocharov/Washington Capitals)

That left it up to Holtby to finish the week in net (Philipp
Grubauer was recalled from Hershey to serve as backup on Saturday against the
Islanders).He shook off the meltdown
against Ottawa when he allowed four goals on the last 24 shots he faced,
allowing only four goals on 76 shots (.947 save percentage) against Montreal
and the Islanders.It was part of a
stretch in which Holtby has been very, very good (four of his last six
appearances with save percentages over .945) or very, very…not good (two of the
six at .900 or worse).In five of those
six appearances he faced 37 or more shots on goal.He is not lacking for work.

Power Play: 2-9 / 22.2 percent (season: 23.3 percent / rank:
4th)

In retrospect, it seems almost amazing that the Caps
finished the week with two power play goals.It was not a good week for the man advantage.First, there were the opportunities.The Caps had nine overall, but only one of
them came against the Islanders in the last game of the week.And second, the Caps allowed a shorthanded
goal on that power play against New York, a goal that might have been the game
winner but for some late-game heroics by the Caps (we will get to that).

Then there was the lack of efficiency.In 14:02 of power play time for the week the
Caps managed only six shots.They
allowed half that many shorthanded shots (the shooting percentages were equal
for each – 33.3 percent).Then there was
the who.Alex Ovechkin, as you would
expect, led the Caps in power play shots on goal.Perhaps the unexpected was that he had only
three power play shots on goal.Moreover, he was the only Cap to record a power play shot on goal
against Montreal (two) and the Islanders (one).Even less expected, he was not among the goal scorers for the week.The two power play goals were scored by John
Carlson (on two of the six power play shots on goal for the week) and Marcus
Johansson (the other power play shot on goal).

It was not a good week on the other side of special teams,
either.First, this was the fourth
consecutive week in which the penalty kill rate dropped for the season.Four weeks ago the Caps had a penalty kill
rate of 90.7 percent and looked as if they might be a top-five ranked club on
both sides of special teams, if not top-ranked.After four weeks of 37-for-49 penalty killing overall (75.5 percent), the Caps
have dropped to 14th in the league.

The “not a good week” part of the week came against Ottawa.
Allowing six opportunities is a recipe for trouble, even for teams doing well
killing penalties.Washington allowed
Ottawa three power play goals on the first five chances for the Senators, and
that was the difference in a 6-4 Capitals loss.Nine of the Senators’ 40 shots on goal against Braden Holtby came on the
power play from five different players over 7:33 of man advantage time.Twice the Senators scored on deflections when
Capitals lost the goal scorer between themselves and Holtby.Both times it was Karl Alzner victimized,
once by Bobby Ryan and the other time by Mika Zibanejad.

Speaking of Alzner, he was one of the same quartet of Caps
taken advantage of for all three of Ottawa’s power play goals – John Carlson,
Brooks Laich, and Troy Brouwer were the others. For the rest of the week it could only get
better, and it did, the Caps shutting out Montreal and the Islanders on four
power play chances overall, allowing no goals on ten shots in eight total
shorthanded minutes.And, it was Nicklas
Backstrom’s shorthanded goal in the dying moments of regulation time that tied
the game against New York, putting them in a position to make it a winning
week.

That the Caps won the week without winning the week at even
strength is a hint that it was a welcome result won with less than welcome
performance.It was close, the Caps
losing the even strength goals matchup with Ottawa by a 3-2 margin and winning
it over the Islanders by a 2-1 margin, with the tie against Montreal in the
middle game (2-2) making for another “even” week.

This was the fourth straight week in which the Caps were
even in even-strength goals scored and goals allowed.Buried within the numbers for the week was
the performance of Eric Fehr, who had two of the six even strength goals for
the week on seven shots.The rest of the
club had four even strength goals on 72 shots.

There was enough frustration to go around.First, there was Alex Ovechkin misfiring on
his first 11 even strength shots on goal before hitting on his 12th,
at 4-on-4, the game-winner in the Caps’ 3-2 win over the Islanders.Then there was Marcus Johansson, who was
0-for-10 at even strength.Finally,
there was Mike Green.In three games
Green was 0-for-6 at even strength.For
the season only nine defensemen have taken more shots overall than Green.None of them – no skater, in fact – has taken
more with no goals to show for it.

Faceoffs: 85-193 / 44.0 percent (season: 48.2 percent /
rank: 23rd)

Here is another area in which the Caps have seen their
ranking slip over the past several weeks.Okay, it was early in the season – Week 2 – in which they ranked 10th
with a 53.5 percent overall winning percentage.After this week – a generally poor week in the circle – they have fallen
to 48 percent and 23rd in the league.

Disturbing as the trend has been recently, this week the
Caps were worse in the ends than overall.Washington won only 25 of 68 draws in the offensive end (36.8
percent).The “offensive” centers –
Nicklas Backstrom and Mikhail Grabovski – were only a combined 14-for-44 in the
offensive end (31.8 percent).In the
defensive end (46.4 percent overall), the volume generators – Backstrom, Grabovski, and Jay Beagle –
were a combined 16-for-32 (50 percent), but only Beagle was over 50 percent
(5-for-8).

Goals For/Against by Period:

But for some late fireworks while shorthanded, the third
periods might have been disastrous for the Caps this week.Tied with Ottawa after two periods, the Caps
were outscored 3-1 in the third period, two of the goals coming in the last
three minutes (one an empty netter).Against the Islanders – a team that has little talent for scoring in the third period (third
worst in the league in third period goals) – the Caps allowed two goals and
lost a one-goal lead theytook into the period.But for those two goals the Islanders would have finished the week tied
for last in the league in third period goals.

On the scoring side of the ledger the best that can be said
for the Caps was that they were balanced – three in the first period, two in
the second, three in the third, with another in overtime.Either the Caps or their opponents scored in
eight of the nine regulation periods for the week, the Caps scoring first in
the period four times, their opponents four times.What the Caps were able to avoid was allowing
the early goal.Only Cal Clutterbuck,
who scored at 3:59 of the third period for the Islanders, scored an opposition
goal in the first five minutes of a period this week.The Caps did not score such a goal in any of
their nine periods, although Eric Fehr did get one 5:17 into the second period
of the Caps’ 3-2 Gimmick win over Montreal.

In the end…

Wins are wins, and having more of them is better than less
of them.How the Caps got two wins this
week is something to think about in terms of whether they can extend their
modest two-game winning streak into Week 10, but ten weeks from now no one will
care that the two wins were not the most artistic of those the Caps are likely
to achieve this season.

Of the Caps who had two or more points this week, it was nice
to see that Eric Fehr, Troy Brouwer, Joel Ward, and Jason Chimera among
them.Getting that second and third
level of scoring when the big guns are largely dormant (and Mike Green still
searching for that first goal) is important.

With the Rangers, Devils, and Flyers all lurking within four
points of the Caps, scratching out wins in November, however it is done, will
be important when the stretch run comes in March and April.In that respect it was not pretty, but it
was a good week.

The other stuff

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