Final First Round NFL Mock Draft

Arizona Cardinals - Kyler Murray, Quarterback, Oklahoma

This happens every single year with the draft. The best possible player gets mocked at #1 overall and then in the two weeks leading up the draft, someone writes a column about how maybe they aren't that good, how the team picking at #1 doesn't want him, how he might fall out of the first round entirely. Make no mistake about it: Kyler Murray is going #1 overall to the Arizona Cardinals, regardless of what happens with Josh Rosen.

2. San Francisco 49ers - Nick Bosa, EDGE, Ohio State

The 49ers have three NFL-caliber quarterbacks on their roster and a defense that desperately needs attention. I was tempted to do a trade back here with a QB needy team and let the 49ers select a wide receiver in the 20's of the first round, but the more likely scenario is that they simply stay put and take the best EDGE rusher in this draft. Bosa will be a cornerstone of this defense for the next 10 years and this NFL mock draft isn't trying to re-invent the wheel.

3. New York Jets - Andre Dillard, Offensive Tackle, Washington State

I have waffled back and forth on how the Jets should approach this pick. Taking Quinnen Williams or one of the explosive EDGE rushers fits more with their organizational philosophy. However, the most important thing for this franchise is figuring out if Sam Darnold can be a franchise quarterback. No player helps Darnold realize that potential more than a stud tackle. Dillard got infinite pass blocking reps playing at Washington State and is one of the most athletic linemen in this entire class. I consider Dillard at three a slam dunk for the Jets in this NFL mock draft, though I can see them opting for one of the defensive lineman.

4. Oakland Raiders - Josh Allen, EDGE, Kentucky

A defensive player makes the most sense for the Raiders with this first pick, though reports over the last few days have indicated that the Raiders want to select a "surprise" player at #4. Dwayne Haskins would be a surprise, as would T.J Hockenson but to a lesser extent, so would Allen. Quinnen Williams and Ed Oliver are the more highly touted prospects, especially Williams. Williams falling to 5 or 6 would be a real shock. However, the Raiders desperately need a pass rush after recording 13 sacks in 2018. Allen, as the second-best EDGE in this class, shores up that problem.

In the Bills wildest dreams, I do not think they saw being able to acquire Quinnen Williams. In some mock drafts, Williams has gone as high as #2 and most rate him out as the most destructive defensive player of the class. The Bills could give up No. 40 (second round) and possibly No. 181 (sixth round) to move up the four spots required to select Williams. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have maybe the strongest DT rotation in the NFL with Vita Vea and Gerald McCoy so they are in no rush to select Williams or Ed Oliver. The Bills are also known for aggressively valuing players and doing anything to select them.

6. New York Giants - Daniel Jones, Quarterback, Duke

Is this is an intelligent pick? No. Would Jones be there at #17? I am pretty sure that he would be. Does Dave Gettleman care about any of this? He does not. Dave Gettleman has never traded back in the NFL Draft and he certainly does not care about value. He'll take an RB #2, trade away Odell Beckham, and pay Golden Tate at 30 years old without blinking an eye. Daniel Jones is a mediocre QB prospect (my #5 in the class) but he fits what Gettleman thinks a quarterback should be. Jones was coached by the same man who coached Eli and Peyton and he has the stereotypical #BigArm that Gettleman values. Rest in peace, Giants fans.

7. Jacksonville Jaguars - Montez Sweat, EDGE, Mississippi State

If I was picking with my heart, T.J Hockenson would go here. Hockenson projects to have a sliver of a chance of becoming the Jaguars version of Rob Gronkowski. A mauling run blocker, an extremely able pass catcher and an excellent teammate. However, a tight end is unlikely to go this high and the Jaguars always prioritize their defense over their offense. Sweat is one of the most athletic EDGE's in this draft and recent chatter about Michigan's Rashan Gary has been overwhelmingly negative which suggests to me that Sweat is a better bet to go in the top ten picks.

8. Detroit Lions - Greedy Williams, Cornerback, LSU

The Lions have such a desperate need for a cornerback that I am leaving this pick the same as my last NFL mock draft. This is the range where I am starting to think about the Iowa tight ends (Fant and Hockenson) or even some of the wide receivers. However, the Lions secondary was so bad last season and they have such few options behind Darius Slay that the best cornerback in this year's draft is a slam dunk pick for them.

9. TRADE Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Devin White, Linebacker, LSU

Back to back defensive picks for the LSU Tigers! Unlike most of the teams picking in the top ten of this years draft, there aren't a ton of holes on the Bucs roster. The offensive line is solid, they have a good quarterback, elite wide receivers, capable EDGE rushers, amazing defensive tackles and a decent secondary. The one hole they have is at linebacker, particularly after Kwon Alexander left in free agency. Devin White seems like the next superstar MLB (though he can play outside as well) and he's a great fit here for the Bucs.

10. Denver Broncos - Ed Oliver, Defensive Tackle, Houston

Originally, I expected that the Broncos were almost certain to take a quarterback. However, Daniel Jones going off the board to the Giants means that there is one less team looking to take Drew Lock or Dwayne Haskins (or even Will Grier). If Ed Oliver is on the board here at #10 and the Broncos pass, I would be taken aback. This is a team that is committed to a defensive identity and Oliver is one of the most athletic and intriguing defensive prospects of the last five years. The Broncos will take him if he is on the board here.

11. Cincinnati Bengals - Jawaan Taylor, Offensive Tackle, Florida

There is nothing mega-exciting about taking the second-best offensive tackle (who profiles more as a right tackle than a left tackle) for Bengals fans but that doesn't mean this is a bad pick. Taylor is a massive 6'5", 335 pounds and the Bengals new, exciting offense won't get off the ground under Zac Taylor unless Andy Dalton can stay upright. This pick makes their offense better for 2019.

Aaron Rodgers likely has two or three years left in his prime. His primary targets outside of Davante Adams are past-his-prime Jimmy Graham, three sophomore wide receivers (only one of whom impressed last season) and Aaron Jones out of the backfield. A quarterback cannot be expected to rise an offense all on his own. Fant's 99th percentile athleticism makes him a more desirable pass-catching target than his college teammate T.J Hockenson (even if Hock is the better overall prospect). If Fant goes to GB as this NFL mock draft suggests, fantasy football players should be rejoicing.

13. Miami Dolphins - Rashan Gary, EDGE, Michigan

If there is any team poised to take some risks with their first-round pick, it is the Miami Dolphins. If any team wanted to trade up to take his pick off their hands, the Dolphins would be more than willing but with no super QB-needy teams, it doesn't feel particularly likely. Gary is the second-most athletic EDGE in this class though his production at Michigan was not always star-level. The Dolphins are entering a rebuilding mode where they are trying to gain as much excess value as possible and Gary could outperform his draft slot pretty significantly while holding that value for several seasons.

14. Atlanta Falcons - Brian Burns, EDGE, Florida State

With Austin Hooper, Calvin Ridley and Julio Jones already in place on offense, an offensive selection is fairly unlikely here. Burns is pretty clearly the best EDGE rusher left on the board and he could fit right into a rotation with Tak McKinley and Vic Beasley. This selection would give the Falcons one of the best defensive lines in the NFL and makes them a better and more competitive team.

15. Washington Redskins - Dwayne Haskins, Quarterback, Ohio State

Another pick that I am leaving as the same from the 2.0 NFL mock draft. This simply makes too much sense for me to not argue for it. Haskins is my QB2 and getting him in the middle of the first round is actually enough value that Washington might be able to turn their franchise around despite the Alex Smith albatross contract. Having Case Keenum on the roster is not enough of a deterrent to keep them from making this pick.

16. Carolina Panthers - Cody Ford, Offensive Tackle, Oklahoma

The Vikings are going to be cursing at the top of their lungs when the draft breaks out this way and the Panthers head to the podium with Cody Ford as their pick. Ford is 6'4", 350 pounds but is one of the most agile and quick-footed offensive lineman in the entire class. As Cam Newton ages and has shoulder troubles, keeping him upright should pretty much be the organizations top priority and no player can aide that quest at this spot fmore than Ford.

After taking Daniel Jones, I am not really sure what direction the Giants want to go with this pick. After no longer bending the knee to Eli Manning, it seems less likely that they will be taking an offensive tackle as I have had projected for them in the previous iteration of this NFL mock draft. Hockenson is an elite blocker, so he provides that skill for Saquon Barkley and he could make Eli's life a bit easier by getting open in the short areas. I feel no strong conviction with this pick but believe it makes sense in Gettleman's head.

18. Minnesota Vikings - Jonah Williams, Offensive Tackle, Alabama

The Vikings just need an offensive lineman. Guard, center, tackle, full back, blocking tight end converted into a tackle. It really does not matter. Kirk Cousins had one of the least-secure pockets to throw from last season and Dalvin Cook/Latavius Murray found running lanes hard to come by because the offensive line was just that bad. Williams is a smooth operator who is going to make the Vikings a better class of football team in this NFL mock draft.

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The Titans just finished one of the most average NFL seasons of all time while rotating between Marcus Mariota and Blaine Gabbert. Part of the problem for the team has been that Mariota simply cannot stay healthy. Adding Bradbury, who can play center or either guard spot, adds some protection for Mariota and another mauling run blocker for Derrick Henry. This is not an exciting NFL mock draft pick but it is one that makes intuitive sense.

The Steelers need a wide receiver. Donte Moncrief and James Washington are theoretically the two players battling to be the starting players opposite (or with) JuJu Smith-Shuster but I am not convinced that either are really quality WR2 options. I am, however, pretty convinced that A.J Brown is both a first-round quality wide receiver and a better prospect than Washington was last season. With Antonio Brown gone, the Steelers have a whole boatload of targets to replace and Brown is capable of filling in as a starting player right away.

21. Seattle Seahawks - Juan Thornhill, Safety, Virginia

This is another selection that is a repeat from previous mock drafts. Juan Thornhill is almost a 3-sigma athlete and fits the Seattle Seahawks safety paradigm to a tee. He is big, fast and SPARQ-y as can be. Safety is a glaring need for the Seahawks after Earl Thomas left town for the Baltimore Ravens. While Thornhill is not the top safety on many boards, he is likely to be the top safety on the Seahawks board and is a good selection for them here.

No team has a bigger positional need than the Baltimore Ravens do at wide receiver. Their current depth chart has Willie Snead projected for the largest target share and Chris Moore playing a meaningful role for them in 2019. If this team wants to repeat their streak to the playoffs, they need to add N'Keal Harry or maybe Marquise Brown here. Lamar Jackson is not likely to hold up to 250 carries in 2019 so they need to develop him (and use him) more as a passer. Adding a first-round wide receiver is a clear way to aid Jackson's development.

23. Houston Texans - Greg Little, Offensive Tackle, Mississipi

If the Texans leave this first round WITHOUT an offensive lineman, then they just do not care about winning football games. Deshaun Watson was one of the most-hit quarterbacks in 2018 and was forced to play through broken ribs behind a piecemeal offensive line. Little is a very mobile offensive tackle and that should suit the Texans scheme well.

This is where Jon Gruden is going to get what he wants after taking an EDGE rusher at #4. There has been steady murmurs that Hollywood Brown is the WR1 for many NFL teams and he might be the only WR taken in the first round. There have also been rumors that Antonio Brown's cousin is a favorite of the Raiders organization. While I would not personally taken Brown here, it is something I can see the Raiders doing quite easily.

25. Philadelphia Eagles - Jonathan Abram, Safety, Mississipi State

Pass defense is the biggest overall need for the Philadephia Eagles as their entire unit struggled last year. A corner, safety, an edge or even an off-ball linebacker all makes sense here. Abram or Chauncey Gardner-Johnson are both potential selections here to replace Corey Graham. Abram is the more tenacious player and a more fun selection for the Eagles here as a big-hitting box safety.

It would be much more fun for the Colts to take Hakeem Butler or JJ Arcega-Whiteside here, but in a more realistic world, Tillery makes sense. He played injured for most of 2018 with a torn labrum but did not miss time, played in his bowl game and even completed his drills at the combine. He provides real pass-rushing ability from the interior and could be a building block of a resurgent defense.

27. Oakland Raiders - Deandre Baker, Cornerback, Georgia

For my money, Baker is probably the best cover corner in this draft. Looking at the Raiders roster realistically, they need more help on the defensive side of the ball than the offensive side. Provided that the Raiders don't make any trades in this draft, it seems more likely to me that they leave the first-round with multiple defensive players than multiple offensive players. Baker can replace some of the leagues' shakiest corner player from day one.

The Chargers are much like the Texans; they are leaving the first round with an offensive lineman of some sort. They might not have the same board as the rest of us, but the chances of them skipping on a lineman seem very slight. Risner had an elite Senior Bowl week and shot up draft boards as a result of those practices. He should be ready to start from his first day in Los Angeles despite not getting a ton of reps as mostly a run-blocker at Kansas State.

Welp. The Kansas City Chiefs have traded this pick to the Seattle Seahawks (and a second-rounder) for the right to pay a market-rate extension to Frank Clark. The Seahawks wanted to make this trade for obvious reasons and they get what they are after: a real WR1. With Doug Baldwin aging and Tyler Lockett a better complementary piece than true star, Hakeem Butler is going to be a perfect fit with Russ Wilson. Butler can play big slot or flanker and will be the best redzone weapon that Wilson has ever had.

30. Green Bay Packers - Nasir Adderley, Safety, Delaware

I want to mock D.K Metcalf to the Green Bay Packers SO BAD. Their offense adding Noah Fant and D.K Metcalf in the same draft would be an outstanding amount of athleticism. However, first-round wide receivers aren't the Green Bay Packer way and the team has a bigger need at safety after taking three wide receivers last year. Adderley might be an FCS player but he is a stud in coverage and fits the new, faster-paced NFL game extremely well.

31. Los Angeles Rams - Devin Bush Jr., Linebacker, Michigan

Off the ball linebackers are not a top priority for most NFL teams in 2019 which is why Bush is likely to fall this far down in the 2019 NFL draft. He is a physical, wrecking ball style of player that is probably going to struggle in pass coverage against quicker wide receivers and tight ends. However, the Rams do have a need at the linebacker position and get most of their pass rush from the interior so Bush is actually a scheme fit for Los Angeles.

Let's have some fun with the last NFL Mock draft of the season. At first glance, Metcalf might not seem like a Patriot selection. However, they love to take Rorschach WR prospects. Aaron Dobson, Malcom Mitchell, Josh Boyce, all of these players made little sense at the time. Metcalf could be 13 different players depending on how you interpret his physical profile, injuries and weird production at Ole Miss. This pick would certainly get the internet buzzed up overnight from the first day of the draft and I couldn't make a more fun selection if I tried.