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The Aspen Global Change Institute is an independent nonprofit dedicated to furthering scientific understanding of Earth systems and global environmental change. Our work includes interdisciplinary research, education and outreach, and collaboration with resource managers and policy-makers. Together we strive to facilitate scientific discussion for the betterment of society and natural systems, while promoting practical solutions to the challenges of today's changing Earth systems.

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Solutions

The key to the climate-energy-carbon problem is in discovering how to accommodate the energy and material requirements of the human population while reducing the environmental impact of civilization’s needs. The challenge lies in finding pathways to achieve this goal while stabilizing the climate and protecting Earth’s critical life support systems – all for generations to come. This is a significant challenge, but there are many underutilized existing solutions with more emerging every day.

The Energy Tool is an interactive simulation tool that provides an introduction to the global energy system and allows the user to manipulate the system in a four step process. As if by magic wand you can set energy efficiency in each energy sector, alter the amount of electrification and set the relative proportion of primary sources (fossil, nuclear, biomass, wind, solar, hydro). In each step the resulting total energy, carbon emissions, and cost are tabulated resulting in a new world energy system and how the new system fares in achieving the climate goals of the Paris Accord.

The AGCI Interactive Energy Table is an easy to navigate matrix of primary energy data for renewable and non-renewable energy sources. The table contains attributes and quantities of each energy type such as installed capacity, capacity factor, levelized cost, and resource availability along with short videos by energy experts on many of the major energy technologies.

Quarterly Research Reviews: Every quarter, AGCI writes a Quarterly Research Review on groundbreaking topics in science, technology and policy with a primary focus on climate change, analysis and solutions.

Energy Solutions

Chapter
I – Overview

I. Energy Overview

One of the Expedition 40 crew members aboard the International Space Station photographed this nighttime image showing city lights in at least half a dozen southern states from some 225 miles above the home planet. Lights from areas in the Gulf Coast states of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama, as well as some of the states that border them on the north, are visible. Image Credit: NASA

Civilization relies upon access to energy. Since the Industrial Revolution that energy has largely been supplied by fossil fuels (coal, oil, natural gas). The emissions of greenhouse gases from energy production is the primary driver of climate change. Climate change poses a daunting and long-term challenge. Many institutions, including most recently the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in the Paris Agreement, have set a goal of limiting global warming to 2°C (3.6°F) to avert the worst of the risks associated with climate change under a business-as-usual scenario. The grand challenge of our time is how to keep supplying energy to the world, while remaining within the bounds of a 2°C rise in average global temperatures. To achieve that goal, we’ll have to revolutionize the global energy system.

Action is being taken. While the Paris Agreement outlines how to achieve emission reductions (nationally determined contributions, NDCs) — it is only a start on the path to achieve the goal. No single plan has all the answers, but increasingly solutions are mounting and their utilization accelerating—in some cases at exponential rates. There are many opportunities to engage with the global energy transition, on scales ranging from what you can do individually in your own life, to what policies can encourage clean energy on national and international scale. We offer here a collection of solution recommendations from respected sources, including recommendations from top researchers who have attended our workshops.

State of Energy Now

Currently, fossil fuels (coal, oil and natural gas) provide the majority of the world's Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES). Renewable energy sources (like solar, wind, hydro, biomass and geothermal) make up about 13% of primary energy supply, and nuclear energy supplies about 4.7% of global energy. Energy is then utilized here characterized by four sectors: the industrial sector (which includes production of food, chemicals, iron/steel, mining, construction, forestry, etc.) takes over half of the world’s primary energy. The remainder is split between residential (household heating, cooling, lighting, consumer products, etc.), commercial (heating, cooling, lighting, refrigeration, computers of offices, stores, hospitals, schools, etc.), and the transportation sector (all road, rail, air, water and pipeline needs). To minimize the impact of the total primary energy supply on the climate for the long haul, efforts will be necessary to efficiently match global TPES with demand (while maintaining and equitably improving quality of life), as well as to supply TPES from energy sources with net zero emissions.

Energy Efficiency Improvements

Energy efficiency will be key to decreasing total primary energy supply. Advanced technologies and improved system designs can result in more efficient energy usage, and in turn energy savings. Improving efficiency saves how much primary energy is needed from the start. Efficiency is an untapped resource. Only 30% of global energy is currently subject to energy efficiency standards. Despite minimal energy efficiency policies in place, between 2000 and 2015 there was a savings in total energy consumed of 13% (IEA Energy Efficiency Market Report). If more energy efficiency measures and policies are deployed, it is projected by 2020 energy efficiency could account for approximately 25% more energy savings (McKinsey).

Electrification of the Energy System

Most energy is delivered to end-users either as electricity through electric grids or by burning fuels directly. For example, a car can be powered either by electricity (if it’s an electric car), or by directly burning fuel (as in conventional cars). So, which of these energy delivery methods is more efficient? The answer partially depends on which energy sources are used to generate the energy to begin with, combined with the end use device. For example a car converts about 20% of the fuel energy into its motion, whereas if the energy source is electric, it converts about 80% or more into motion. The key point is that electrification generally lowers total energy required to meet end-use demand. Some energy sources need to be burned to release their energy, and so a great deal of energy is lost in the thermal to electric conversion process. This inefficiency is true for many of the dominant energy sources today (coal, oil, and natural gas). However, if energy is initially harnessed as electricity and immediately channeled into electric grids, then electricity can be far more efficient than burning direct fuels. This is why many renewable energy sources such as wind, solar, hydro, ocean, and geothermal power, are so efficient. The efficiency savings from electrifying our energy system using renewable energy sources will further decrease the amount of primary energy needed to meet energy demands. One study on the U.S. energy system found that by converting from a combustion based system to one electrified by renewable sources would yield a ~39% reduction in end-use load with ~82% of this saving due to electrification and the remaining due to improving end-use efficiencies (Jacobson 2009, 2015).

Sources of Energy

The ultimate test in revolutionizing our energy system to stay below 2°C warming by 2100 will be the deployment of renewable energy sources at scale. Accelerating this historical timeline for the needed transition will take a focused effort and considerable political will. Currently, renewable energy sources supply only 13% of global primary energy. However, renewable energy sources have seen an exponential rise in deployment in recent years. Exponential rates of change such as in the solar and wind markets, if sustained, have short doubling times. Policies can have a dramatic impact on realized emissions by instituting performance standards. National or state goals are being set altering the rate of renewable energy sources being deployed. In some cases more aggressive goals are being set than those required by the participating parties of the Paris Accord. In the U.S. for example, California is working toward ambitious long-term goals for carbon emission reduction more in step with the required reductions required to stabilize the climate.

World Energy Consumption by Energy Source, BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015. Image Source. Aside from a slight dip during the global recession beginning in 2008, total energy supply has increased from 1971 to 2015. About 82% of the energy supply was fossil based, with biomass/fuel, nuclear, hydro, wind and solar making up the balance.

Energy Systems in Transition

Some estimates of climate stabilization at 2°C or less require negative emissions in the last quarter of the century. The longer it takes for global emissions to peak, the steeper the annual decline has to be from that point if desired temperature goals are to be met. But reaching a near-zero emissions energy system is a challenge that requires support and action from all sectors of society. The global energy system has to go from 86% fossil energy today with about 10 billion tons of carbon entering the atmosphere each year to near zero emissions by 2100. Energy expert Vaclav Smil notes that past energy transitions take multiple decades to achieve. Accelerating the business as usual timeline for a transition commensurate with the UN 2 degree Celsius (or better) goal will take a focused effort and considerable political will— a transformation of the global energy system. Efficiency, consumer choice, advances in low carbon emitting technologies, and needed energy services for underserved populations are all at play. At our current rates of emissions, we’ll exceed the carbon budget for 1.5°C in less than a decade, and the 2°C carbon budget in 20-25 years (Carbon Brief 2016).

If we continue on a business-as-usual path for how we supply energy, we’ll exceed the carbon budget for 1.5°C in less than a decade. To stay within the 2°C temperature goal (purple numbers and curved bars) there is a 50% chance that the goal will be exceeded in 27.8 years at current emission rates (Carbon Brief 2016).

II. Individual Energy Solutions

Artist's rendition of the courtyard area for NASA’s Sustainability Base. On August 25, 2009 NASA held a ceremonial groundbreaking and dedication event for what would become the highest-performing building in the federal government. The building was completed in 2011.

It’s easy to think that what you do personally doesn’t really change the big picture, but in aggregate the big picture is you along with 7 billion of your compatriots on planet Earth. Consumer choice and behavior are a huge factor -- particularly for the wealthier countries -- where consumers have a large footprint. What we buy and eat, how we get around, how we heat or cool our homes are all factors where behavior, choice, efficiency and design are key. There are many resource available about what individuals can do to decrease the environmental impact energy usage.

CoolClimate Network Calculator - Determine the carbon footprint of your travel, housing, food, and shopping, as well as build an emissions reduction plan.

Global Footprint Network Calculator - Calculate your lifestyle's ecological footprint, and see how many Earths would be needed to support your lifestyle if everyone on Earth had the same footprint.

Devise a ‘systems approach’ for reducing emissions starting with your major energy uses.

DOE's Whole-House Systems Approach - A whole-house systems approach helps homeowners, architects, and builders develop successful strategies for optimizing home energy efficiency. This approach considers the house as an energy system with interdependent parts, each of which affects the performance of the entire system.

Tips on Saving Money and Energy at Home from the Energy Saver Guide from the Department of Energy - This guide features the latest information on energy-saving, efficient technologies, including tips for using clean, renewable energy to power your home.

Energy Star’s Energy Savings at Home - This site features advice, tools, resources, and inspriation to help you save energy and money.

Learn about 100 Practical Solutions by the Drawdown Project, and think about which ones apply to your energy consumption. Project Drawdown facilitates a broad coalition of researchers, scientists, graduate students, PhDs, post-docs, policy makers, business leaders and activists to assemble and present the best available information on climate solutions in order to describe their beneficial financial, social and environmental impact over the next thirty years.

Find out what groups in your community can help, share ideas, and tell your story.

Get Involved with Your City’s Climate Action Plan - The ICLEI Local Governments for Sustainability serves the movement of local governments pursuing deep reductions in carbon pollution and tangible improvements in sustainability and resilience. For more than 25 years, they have achieved results that have helped communities reduce emissions and become healthier, stronger, more equitable, and more prepared.

Get involved with Your State’s Climate Action Plan - The Center for Climate and Energy Solutions features state climate action plans from across the U.S. These plans identify cost-effective opportunities to reduce GHG emissions based on individual characteristics of each state’s economy, resource base, and political structure.

Chapter
III – Technology

III. Energy Technology Solutions

An example of a grid-scale solar energy project. Thousands of mirrors, called heliostats, direct the sun’s energy onto a receiver, which was built using expertise gained from constructing the space shuttle main engine. The NASA spinoff receiver sits on top of a 550-foot tower. Image Credit: SolarReserve

Technology in the clean energy arena is rapidly changing. As more devices like photovoltaic panels are manufactured in large quantity, efficiencies have improved while prices have plummeted. Systems thinking that integrates new devices with sectoral requirements are being experimented with from new modes of transportation to innovative electric grids.

Consider the energy footprint of a technology in its intended application.

What is its embodied energy (ie. the energy used to make in a device or product) and what is its operational energy use and carbon footprint over its lifetime? Researchers are reviewing at what point do energy technologies “break even” between their energy use and greenhouse gas emissions?

Re-assessment of Net Energy Production and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Avoidance after 40 years of Photovoltaics Development (Nature Communications, 2016).

Energy Payback of Solar, in the last decade, has decreased from 3.5 years (NREL, 2004) to less than 1 year in some areas (Fraunhofer, 2016) due to more efficient production of solar panels using fewer materials.

The Energy ‘Pay-Back’ Time (EPBT) of Silicon PV Rooftop Systems varies across geographical areas in Europe depending on latitude and climatic conditions (Fraunhofer, 2016). These factors partially account for variations in how much solar radiation a given area is able to receive over a given time (that area’s irradiation). Irradiation in this case is measured in kilowatt-hours per square meter per year (kWh/m2/a).

In 2016, top researchers from around the world attended an AGCI Workshop on ‘Getting Near Zero: Decarbonizing the Last 20%’ to focus on the technical feasibility of achieving a global energy system with near-zero emissions. Cognizant that achieving the first 80% of carbon emission reduction was no simple task, participants were asked to consider the potentially more difficult task of eliminating the last 20 percent of emissions. Workshop participants assessed the technological feasibility and barriers of decarbonizing the most difficult-to-eliminate, portion of energy-related carbon dioxide emissions.

IV. Energy Solutions through Design

In an effort to improve fuel efficiency, NASA and the aircraft industry are rethinking aircraft design. Inside the 8’ x 6’ wind tunnel at NASA Glenn, engineers recently tested a fan and inlet design, commonly called a propulsor, which could use four to eight percent less fuel than today’s advanced aircraft. Image credit: NASA

Increasingly, smart design is entering into how we think about energy services, devices, and systems. Consider the attributes you seek in good design: Is it function, beauty, sustainability, performance, affordability, simplicity, elegance, material quality? The potential for improved efficiency through advanced design is also shaped by advances in materials science and technology. Flexible, nimble designs can accommodate a broader spectrum of present and future needs with less material waste and required energy.

Consider how to shift the role of design in your own choices from being an afterthought to the first step to achieve your needs -- from mobility, dwellings, to commerce and communication.

Seek out what your city, county, state offices offer consumers regarding energy advice and guides to best practices. Support the adoption of high performance standards -- from transportation systems to building codes to hand held devices.

V. Development and Energy Solutions

In the 1970s Shenzhen was a small fishing village in China. The transformation to a modern cityscape was rapid and widespread. Evidence of urbanization is evident in these two images from 1999 acquired by the Landsat Thematic Mapper, and from 2008 acquired by ASTER. Image credit: NASA/GSFC/METI/ERSDAC/JAROS, and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team

All people require energy to achieve an acceptable quality of life. Access to clean, reliable, and sustainable energy sources is an important goal in development. The UN estimates 2.8 billion people do not have adequate energy access and 1.2 billion are without electricity (UN-Energy 2014). As the world population moves from 7 to 9 billion or more this century, achieving a clean energy transition will have multiple benefits in human health, the environment, and climate stabilization.

Energy use is increasingly decoupled from economic development and carbon emissionsas a result of efficiency, behavioral shifts, and clean energy sources.

Decoupling of Global Emissions and Economic Growth Confirmed (IEA 2016). Global emissions have essentially plateaued for the first time in post-industrial history since 2013, while the global economy continued to grow by more than 3%, offering evidence that the link between economic growth and emissions growth is weakening.

The Roads to Decoupling: 21 Countries Are Reducing Carbon Emissions While Growing GDP (World Resources Institute, 2016). The debates on growth and resources are complex, fractious and centuries old, and while they won’t be resolved in the immediate future, recent developments show that global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions stayed flat in 2014 and 2015 while GDP continued to grow.

Can We Reduce CO2 Emissions and Grow the Global Economy? (Yale E360, 2016) Surprising new statistics show that the world economy is expanding while global carbon emissions remain at the same level. Is it possible that the elusive “decoupling” of emissions and economic growth could be happening?

Greater electrification of energy supply and demand requires energy development taking a systems approach to better match supply and demand.

European policy makers are gearing up to take the next steps in setting European energy policy on track towards a nearly carbon neutral economy in 2050. Read more about The Benefits of Electrification: Electricity’s Contribution to Sustainable Energy (Eurelectric 2015).

The Renewable Electricity Futures Study by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory reviews the implications and challenges of very high renewable electricity generation levels—from 30% up to 90% of all U.S. electricity generation in 2050, including considerations for meeting supply and demand.

Trends in urbanization create new opportunities via density, but also new challenges.

At the COP22 meeting in Marrakech in 2016, 48 of the world’s most vulnerable countries committed to supplying 100 percent of their domestic energy from renewable sources between 2030 and 2050. The group, part of the Climate Vulnerable Forum, called on a peaking of global emissions by 2020, and carbon neutrality by the 2050s. This movement recognizes that even under a 1.5°C scenario, disadvantaged populations will be dangerously vulnerable to climate change impacts. Their commitment to promoting green economies was extended as additional encouragement to other nations to increase their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs). Edgar Gutierrez of Costa Rica proclaimed, “We don’t know what countries are still waiting for to move towards net carbon neutrality and 100 percent renewable energy.”

VI. Energy Solutions through Policy

International policy is the means to address issues of accountability and desired actions among nations across time and space. For commons such as the Earth’s ocean or atmosphere, international agreements have led to the resolution of problems such as the control of ozone harming chemicals. The 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change created an international goal of “...stabilization of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system...”. Earlier, the UN created the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to assess the scientific and technical literature for nations to consider, not only the science of climate change and its impacts, but also solution oriented mitigation and adaptation measures -- all codified in reports issued approximately every 5 years over the last 27 years.

While international agreements can create a framework toward greenhouse gas emission goals such as achieved in the Paris Accord of 2015, individual nations or states can choose through internal policies their own pace and approach to solutions affecting environmental health. Protecting a commons such as the atmosphere offers a unique challenge to the world’s nations in that no one country can solve the problem by themselves.

Clean energy policies at all jurisdictional levels can be very effectiveincluding informal agreements, neighborhood and homeowners associations on up to city, state, and international agreements, industry standards and goals.

Adopt policies that promote a more life-cycle based assessment of any product or service.

As resources dwindle and waste piles up, the ‘take, make and dispose’ linear model of economics is in need of a rethink. In a special issue, the journal Nature examines how governments, industries and designers are looking to close the loop through a Circular Economy. In a circular economy, waste materials and energy are redefined as inputs by breaking down and repurposing goods or supplying them as services. It is more sustainable; it creates jobs. So, what research is needed?

Making Sustainable Consumption and Production a Reality: A Guide for Business and Policy Makers to Life Cycle Thinking and Assessment. This guide shows how a life cycle approach can be used to identify and reduce the environmental and health impacts of the products we use. It underlines the importance of considering these issues across the entire life cycle of a product and sets them within the context of policy development, business design and innovation.

Match policies to applicable timeframes of environmental problems and their solutions.

The Climate Scoreboard shows the progress that national plans submitted to the UN climate negotiations will make in mitigating climate change, and how that compares to the international goal to stay “well below” 2°C. Analysis shows that the national contributions to date, with no further progress post-pledge period, result in expected warming in 2100 of 3.3°C (with a range of uncertainty of 1.9 – 4.4°C). This tool uses the C-ROADS Climate Change Policy Simulator.

Enact the precautionary principle as a driver of environmental policies that forward sustainable practices for the long haul.

The precautionary principle was put forth in the 1992 Declaration on Environment and Development at the United Nations Conference in Rio de Janiero. The princple states “In order to protect the environment, the precautionary approach shall be widely applied by States according to their capabilities. Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty shall not be used as a reason for postponing cost-effective measures to prevent environmental degradation.”

Include intergenerational obligations and social justice in environmental policy formation.

Everybody’s Movement: Environmental Justice and Climate Changeby Angela Park. The success of the movement for implementing climate solutions and decreasing the concentration of carbon dioxide to 350 parts per million is far from assured. For climate change to become a priority for U.S. voters and households, a stronger connection must be made between global warming and people’s daily lives. The broad and vibrant response necessary to address climate change requires the engagement of more people, from a wider array of society.

Energy Policy Resources from Energy Innovation:

Build on what works -- there are many environmental policies and mechanisms with proven track records -- from performance based standards and feebates to renewable energy portfolios:

Designing Smart Energy Policies: Energy Policy Solutions Simulator. The simulator allows users to control more than 50 different policies (such as a carbon tax, fuel economy standards for vehicles, reducing methane leakage from industry, and accelerated R&D advancement of various technologies) that affect energy use and emissions in various sectors of the economy. The Energy Policy Simulator operates at the national scale and includes every major sector of the economy: transportation, electricity supply, buildings, industry (including agriculture), and land use.

America’s Power Planassembles information on policies, markets, and regulations to maximize the grid’s affordability, reliability/resilience, and environmental performance.

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Aspen Global Change Institute

Mission

The Aspen Global Change Institute is an independent nonprofit dedicated to furthering scientific understanding of Earth systems and global environmental change in service of society. Our work includes interdisciplinary research, education and outreach, and collaboration with resource managers and policy-makers. Together we strive to facilitate scientific discussion for the betterment of society and natural systems, while promoting practical solutions to the challenges of today's changing Earth systems.