No Mayan apocalypse, and asteroid Apophis will miss us in both 2029 and 2036.

Yesterday, NASA announced the latest orbital data on the asteroid Apophis, which indicated that there is less than a one-in-a-million chance of it hitting Earth in 2036. As far as the space agency is concerned, that's enough to declare our planet safe from a punishing impact.

Apophis has been catching headlines since it was first discovered in 2004. At 325m in diameter and an estimated mass of 27 billion kilograms, the asteroid could cause quite a mess if it were to strike Earth. And initial calculations suggested it had over a two percent chance of doing exactly that in 2029. Further refinements in its orbit quickly eliminated that chance, but it set up an alternate possibility: the gravitational interactions during its 2029 flyby could set the object up to slam into Earth in 2036.

The new orbital information, gathered by three different observatories, effectively rule that out. The 2029 flyby will still be dramatic, as Apophis will slide past Earth at a distance of about 30,000km. That will be the closest passage of a body this size that we've ever directly observed.

NASA's announcement noted that there will be an even closer passage of a smaller asteroid next month. 2012 DA14, which is "only" 40m in diameter, will come within a bit over 27,000km when it travels past the Earth. For context, the Moon is 384,000 kilometers away.

What kind of visual are we talking about? From what I just read it's about 1/10th the size of the moon but will be slightly closer. Is it just going to streak through the night like a shooting star or will we be able to see it for a few days?

This would have been the perfect opportunity for NASA to fudge some numbers to make it's funding seem more important to those who would otherwise be hesitant.

Well, they've already let that opportunity slip past. Maybe there's still time to fund a team of deep-core drillers to land on it. Obviously not to save humanity, sadly, but maybe at least for the lulz?

What kind of visual are we talking about? From what I just read it's about 1/10th the size of the moon but will be slightly closer. Is it just going to streak through the night like a shooting star or will we be able to see it for a few days?

Pretty sure it won't be visible with the naked eye, asteriods hit our atmosphere to cause the "shooting star" effect, and the asteroid is only 325m wide where the moon is 3474.8km so it more like 1/10000th the size.

What kind of visual are we talking about? From what I just read it's about 1/10th the size of the moon but will be slightly closer. Is it just going to streak through the night like a shooting star or will we be able to see it for a few days?

Pretty sure it won't be visible with the naked eye, asteriods hit our atmosphere to cause the "shooting star" effect, and the asteroid is only 325m wide where the moon is 3474.8km

What kind of visual are we talking about? From what I just read it's about 1/10th the size of the moon but will be slightly closer. Is it just going to streak through the night like a shooting star or will we be able to see it for a few days?

What kind of visual are we talking about? From what I just read it's about 1/10th the size of the moon but will be slightly closer. Is it just going to streak through the night like a shooting star or will we be able to see it for a few days?

Pretty sure it won't be visible with the naked eye, asteriods hit our atmosphere to cause the "shooting star" effect, and the asteroid is only 325m wide where the moon is 3474.8km

Ahh, the K is important

Yeah, if a 325km diameter asteroid was coming within 30000km of the Earth that would be epic.

Damn these scientists! Always ruining the fun bits! At least with loony cults you can always count on a Rapture/Apocalypse/Final Judgement every couple of years.

I'm pretty sure those loony cults won't let science stand in their way, they never have before.

In all fairness, if it *were* going to hit the Earth, how likely do you think it'd be that they tell the public?

Why bother us with such stuff. It's not likely it'll help out,Hell - us unprivileged normal people can be a bit of a hindrance to the various rich people's ark projects,etc /kidding

In all seriousness,I doubt they'd release such information from the public if anything to keep things relatively calm,because aside from bad scifi,odds are there'll be a bit more lead time (more akin to Deep Impact than Armageddon) and societal breakdown will hinder dealing with the crisis. In my personal opinion, if there's a high likelyhood of an extinction level event from the same caliber as the one that offed the dinosaurs,I'd prefer to spend the last days/months/years of my life in blissful ignorance.

I know an otherwise intelligent person (retired judge) who really, really bought into the whole Mayan-apocalypse-thing. Every time I saw him I had to endure yet another breathless update he had read off of some wild-eyed website or another.

It did no good to point out conflicting information. It was something visceral with him.

Finally, the last time he told me, "you have to keep an open mind!," I told him, "it's great to have an open mind. But you don't want it so open your brains flop out the back of your head."

When doomsday didn't happen last month, his reaction was to tell me that they were off a year -and the actual doom will be happening next December. (eyes rolling)

What kind of visual are we talking about? From what I just read it's about 1/10th the size of the moon but will be slightly closer. Is it just going to streak through the night like a shooting star or will we be able to see it for a few days?

The Moon is 1700+ km in radius, this thing is 300+ meters in diameter, so a lot smaller than 1/10th the size of the moon. Closer to 1/10000th.

It's going to pass at 1/10th the distance, so maybe that what confused you.

With the 2029 pass being so close, how hard would it be to slow it down enough to put it into orbit around earth? It seems like this would be a good opportunity to capture an asteroid for study and/or mining.

With the 2029 pass being so close, how hard would it be to slow it down enough to put it into orbit around earth? It seems like this would be a good opportunity to capture an asteroid for study and/or mining.

What kind of visual are we talking about? From what I just read it's about 1/10th the size of the moon but will be slightly closer. Is it just going to streak through the night like a shooting star or will we be able to see it for a few days?

The Moon is 1700+ km in radius, this thing is 300+ meters in diameter, so a lot smaller than 1/10th the size of the moon. Closer to 1/10000th.

It's going to pass at 1/10th the distance, so maybe that what confused you.

With the 2029 pass being so close, how hard would it be to slow it down enough to put it into orbit around earth? It seems like this would be a good opportunity to capture an asteroid for study and/or mining.

Damn these scientists! Always ruining the fun bits! At least with loony cults you can always count on a Rapture/Apocalypse/Final Judgement every couple of years.

I'm pretty sure those loony cults won't let science stand in their way, they never have before.

In all fairness, if it *were* going to hit the Earth, how likely do you think it'd be that they tell the public?

Why bother us with such stuff. It's not likely it'll help out,Hell - us unprivileged normal people can be a bit of a hindrance to the various rich people's ark projects,etc /kidding

In all seriousness,I doubt they'd release such information from the public if anything to keep things relatively calm,because aside from bad scifi,odds are there'll be a bit more lead time (more akin to Deep Impact than Armageddon) and societal breakdown will hinder dealing with the crisis. In my personal opinion, if there's a high likelyhood of an extinction level event from the same caliber as the one that offed the dinosaurs,I'd prefer to spend the last days/months/years of my life in blissful ignorance.

If the powers that be can't keep military secrets, I doubt seriously that information concerning a pending doomsday would remain secret. Also, any dangerous celestial object heading our way also would also be seen by the legions of amateur astronomers out there. The squeals from that sector would be deafening. (As would be the Twitterverse)

This would have been the perfect opportunity for NASA to fudge some numbers to make it's funding seem more important to those who would otherwise be hesitant.

Nope There would have been plenty of non-NASA scientists who would have called them out on their lie. NASA would have ruined any credibility they had making it virtually impossible for people to justify continued funding of an organization which so blatantly lied to the public just to get more money.

With the 2029 pass being so close, how hard would it be to slow it down enough to put it into orbit around earth? It seems like this would be a good opportunity to capture an asteroid for study and/or mining.

Am I alone in feeling uncomfortable with doing this?

Definitely not

"Just to double check, although I'm 99% sure...is it SOH-CAH-TOA or COH-SAH-TOA?"

With the 2029 pass being so close, how hard would it be to slow it down enough to put it into orbit around earth? It seems like this would be a good opportunity to capture an asteroid for study and/or mining.

Am I alone in feeling uncomfortable with doing this?

Why? Orbital mechanics are well known. It'd definitely possible to bump a asteroid into a lunar orbit given enough (money) and foreknowledge of it's approach. The payback would be quite high.

(A comet, on the other hand could be risky because of off-gassing effecting it's velocity.)

With the 2029 pass being so close, how hard would it be to slow it down enough to put it into orbit around earth? It seems like this would be a good opportunity to capture an asteroid for study and/or mining.

Am I alone in feeling uncomfortable with doing this?

Why? Orbital mechanics are well known. It'd definitely possible to bump a asteroid into a lunar orbit given enough (money) and foreknowledge of it's approach. The payback would be quite high.

(A comet, on the other hand could be risky because of off-gassing effecting it's velocity.)

Sometimes evaluating on a best-case/worst-case scenario is a good approach. In this instance:a) best case we have an asteroid to studyb) worst case, well, humanity is estinguished.

Pretty sure it won't be visible with the naked eye, asteriods hit our atmosphere to cause the "shooting star" effect, and the asteroid is only 325m wide where the moon is 3474.8km so it more like 1/10000th the size.

For reference, the International Space Station is about a third the size of Apophis but (a) is only ~400 km up and (b) is shiny metal instead of a lump of rock. It's about as bright as Venus or so when it flies by overhead.

If you figure Apophis will be about as bright as the ISS, then it'll be about magnitude 4.5 or so when it passes by, (plus or minus a whole lot), putting it on par with something like one of the stars in the little dipper. Bottom line is you'll probably be able to see it if it's dark out when it passes by and you know just where to look, but it won't be some spectacular light show... more like a dim plane passing high overhead.

If the powers that be can't keep military secrets, I doubt seriously that information concerning a pending doomsday would remain secret. Also, any dangerous celestial object heading our way also would also be seen by the legions of amateur astronomers out there. The squeals from that sector would be deafening. (As would be the Twitterverse)

Sorry,but there are secrets and SECRETS - If Wikileaks was releasing something more confidential than the diplomatic cables and the occasional battlefield report - do you think everything would've been 'fixed already'. I'm not saying that they'd have assassinated Assange,but ... 'Sh!t happens'. As for the amateur astronomers - well,that I doubt can be controlled. Lord knows that I've I see something interesting through my own telescope (a NexStar 130 SLT),I'll start braggin,errr sharing information,faster than you could say 'Holy frak!' XD

aquasub wrote:

Sometimes evaluating on a best-case/worst-case scenario is a good approach. In this instance:a) best case we have an asteroid to studyb) worst case, well, humanity is estinguished.

Looking at Jersey Shore/The Only Way is Essex/The other similar TV crap like that - option B wouldn't be that much of a bummer,don't you agree?