Can Jake Locker Win the Heisman Trophy?

I would love it if Jake Locker was a true Heisman contender this year. He’s going to be fantastic, his offense will be humming, he’s got plenty of skill players to help him accumulate stats… but the defense does not come anywhere near matching the offense and the schedule isn’t helping matters either. Realistically, UW should finish 6-6, with a reasonable chance at 7-5 or 8-4 (now that would be something) which would be fantastic, but in terms of Jake-Locker-as-a-Legitimate-Heisman-Level fantastic? Unfortunately, that’s just not very likely.

In the last 30 years, if the Heisman Winner’s team wasn’t going for a shot at No. 1 (15 times), then the Heisman winner set a single season or career record (6 times, one of those times the winner’s team had a chance at No. 1).

So, if a player is on a team that is not gunning for a national title and is not going for some sort of record, then, based on the last 30 years, he has 33% chance of winning the Heisman. In the last decade, that percentage shrinks to 20%.

Here are the winners over the last 30 years who were not racing the records books and whose teams were not in the national title hunt (video clips of each guy at the end of this article):

1980: George Rogers, RB, South Carolina

1984: Doug Flutie, QB, Boston College

1985: Bo Jackson, RB, Auburn

1987: Tim Brown, WR, Notre Dame

1991: Desmond Howard, WR, Michigan

1994: Rashaan Salaam, RB, Colorado

1995: Eddie George, RB, Ohio State

2002: Carson Palmer, QB, USC

2007: Tim Tebow, QB, Florida

I’m not sure if this is a trend or not, but notice that of the guys who fit the profile, there were four in the 80s, three in the 90s, and two in the 00s. Of the eight guys who won the Heisman in the 00s, none of them were record-setters; all were on teams playing for the national title.

So where does that leave Locker? On the outside, I’m afraid. Locker is not winning the Heisman unless he has a monstrous statistical season like Tebow did in 2007–which I am not ruling out–but just take a look at what Tebow did that year, it’s astonishing: 3,286 yards passing 32 TDs, 895 yards rushing 23 rushing TDs (105 yards from a 3,000/1,000 season and 55 total touchdowns, 4 in the Capitol One Bowl,… that’s ridiculous).

And then there’s Carson Palmer’s lights-out year in 2002 where he threw for 3,942 33 TDs and set USC and Pac-10 records and was the consensus No. 1 pick in the draft. Sounds a lot like Peyton Manning, actually, except Manning got killed for not beating Florida.

If Locker doesn’t stash an economy-sized box of matches in his QB hand warmer and pour lighter fluid all over the field he’ll need to lead Washington to an undefeated, or near undefeated, season and put them in BCS Title Game contention in order to take home the bronze statue. And according to Vegas, Washington’s odds at winning the BCS title are 65/1, which sounds pretty far-fetched (because it is), but consider this: they have the 29th best odds–just below Clemson, Missouri, and Michigan at 60/1 and just above Notre Dame at 70/1. Pretty interesting, no?

With that said, according to Vegas, here are the 15 teams with the best odds to win the 2011 BCS Championship:

Alabama 7/2

Ohio State 13/2

Boise State 12/1

Oregon 12/1

Texas 14/1

Nebraska 15/1

USC 15/1

Florida 16/1

Virginia Tech 17/1

TCU 18/1

Oklahoma 18/1

Iowa 20/1

LSU 25/1

Penn State 25/1

Miami 25/1

Look at Boise State! Vegas thinks that the Broncos have the third best chance to win the title, I don’t disagree and would love to see it. Oregon at 12/1 seems like a really big stretch given the fact that Jeremiah Masoli will not be QBing the team (incidentally, I have no love for Oregon, but I really thought that they had a chance to win the title and Masoli had a legit chance to win the Heisman, in my mind, he was at worst the third best candidate, and then all that crap happened in Eugene. I remain amazed by the goings on in Duckland).

So, armed with the knowledge that it’s very unlikely that a player from non-championship contending team will win the Heisman together with some preliminary Vegas odds, let’s take a look to see who’s got a chance to bring home the stiffarm.

Alabama: Mark Ingram, Junior RB. Ingram took home Alabama’s first Heisman last year and I suppose that it’s possible that he’ll repeat, but it seemed like his victory (as deserved as it was) was more of a victory of attrition. Tim Tebow didn’t have the numbers, Colt McCoy didn’t have the big numbers in big games, and Toby Gerhart was awesome, but his team lost too much, and so on. I’d be amazed if Ingram won it again.

Ohio State: Terrelle Pryor, Junior QB. He’s my favorite to win it. He’ll have the exposure, the team, and apparently the newfound ability to throw. We all know that he’s an amazing athlete, but what he really showed in that Rose Bowl win over Oregon is that he is now a complete QB. He was so impressive in that game and I was so shocked with how far he’d come (he was a horrid passer for most of the year and certainly during his freshman season) that after I saw that performance I immediately thought that he’d be the guy next year. He’ll have the numbers if Jim Tressel allows him to play like he did against Oregon, and Pryor will run away with it.

Boise State: Kellen Moore, Junior QB. First, his numbers from ’09: 277/431 64% 3,536 yards 39 TDs 3 Ints (!) and 5 sacks. FIVE. For as much as he drops back, that’s an ungodly number. Also, his interception-to-pass-attempts ratio (.6) is ridiculous (compare it to Billy Volek’s who holds the record for a career (1.3)). Their national-title aspirations will be determined with their first game of the season, similarly to last year when they punched it out against Oregon (sorry). They will be playing Virginia Tech in Washington on Labor Day (yes, Monday). Virginia Tech will be ranked very, very high and I suspect that Boise State will be as well. Additionally, Boise State will face a good Oregon State team (although with question marks at QB) in Boise. There is a reason that Boise State has the third best odds to win the BCS Championship this year. They’ll be ranked in the highly in the preseason (they better be top 5 at the worst), they’ll play one great team and one good team out of conference. Moore has the team, tools, and schedule to make a serious run at the title and the trophy.

Oregon Sigh. I don’t even know what to do with these guys. Could Senior QB Nate Costa or Sophomore QB Darron Thomas step right into Masoli’s void (that sounds like a digestive problem) and lead this team to where we thought they’d be able to go? That seems doubtful given that Costa is not that kind of QB and Thomas while promising and intriguing is young and inexperienced. If those guys are adequate to good, then I suppose Sophomore RB LaMichael James is a legit possibility here. They are still a title contender, but without Masoli, I just don’t trust them enough.

Texas Garrett Gilbert, Sophomore QB. Now this would be interesting. The kid who came into the BCS Title Game and both gave the game away and nearly won it for the Longhorns as a freshman. They lose a lot of talent and leadership off of last year’s runner-up, but this is Texas, they lose a lot of talent every year because so many of their damn players are talented; but the flipside of that is they have a lot of talent coming in. That being said, they are not going to be in title contention this year, and thusly, Gilbert will not be a true Heisman candidate.

Nebraska There is title talk in Lincoln… how warranted is it? They return four starters from their offensive line and a 1,100-yard rusher (Roy Helu) and have a strong defense coming back, even without Ndamukong Suh. While the team might be good and they have a relatively easy out-of-conference schedule (easy Washington fans, I know that they come to Seattle, and are a very one-dimensional rushing offense – ranked 101 in passing last year) I just don’t trust the defense yet, I may come around though…) and play Texas, Missouri, and Kansas all at home, I don’t see any individual player who is Heisman-worthy.

USC Matt Barkley, Sophomore QB. He’ll have to improve mightily from last season in order to be considered. He threw way too few touchdowns (15) and way too many interceptions (14) in 2009. But since he was a true freshman, what he did was impressive. He’ll be better, but it remains to be seen if Lane Kiffin is a good head coach or not. He’s losing a great player security-blanked player Damian Williams, but USC has other players that can step up. Their out-of-conference schedule (at Hawaii, Virginia, at Minnesota, and Notre Dame) isn’t embarrassing (e.g. no San Jose State), but it certainly isn’t scary. They will contend for the Pac-10 Title and possible for the national title, but in order for them to do so, Barkley has to have a big year… and if he has a big year…

Florida John Brantley, Junior QB. The buzz about Brantley is that he’s a more pure passer than Tebow, and that may serve him well because he doesn’t have an experienced receiving corps to throw to. However, they return a full stable of running backs and a talented offensive line. They’ve lost a lot of “name” players on defense (LB Brandon Spikes, DE Carlos Dunlap, and CB Joe Haden), but Florida has been a recruiting machine, I’d be surprised if they didn’t have more than capable backups to step in. The interesting thing to watch will be how this team, offensively, will be changed since Tebow ran so much. Will Brantley be in the shotgun for every snap? Will he be under center? Regardless, if he puts up big numbers and Florida continues to win, Brantley will be in the discussion. Their out-of-conference schedule has two good teams, one bad team, and one 1AA team: Miami of Ohio, South Florida, Appalachian State, and Florida State. So he’ll have a chance to pile up some numbers and face stiff competition at the same time with those out-of-conference games and of course the SEC.

Virginia Tech Tyrod Taylor, Senior QB. I don’t see it. Virginia Tech could very well be in the national title hunt, and while Boise State is a gigantic hurdle, their remaining out-of-conference games are James Madison (1AA), East Carolina (they owe the Pirates), and Central Michigan (who lost their coach). All that being said, VT does not run the kind of offense that elicits huge passing numbers for a QB, but he does have the ability to run and run well and he’s got a great set of running backs to lean on. Since I think Boise State is going to beat Virginia Tech, Taylor, and anyone else from VT will be eliminated from consideration.

TCU Andy Dalton, Senior QB. TCU, along with Boise State, should also start the season highly ranked. Oregon State, Tennessee Tech, Baylor, and SMU are their out-of-conference opponents, not great, but not terrible either. Dalton is a consistent, steady, and wildly successful QB, but he’s not going to put up Heisman worthy numbers, even if TCU rolls to an undefeated regular season (which is very possible). His best year was 2009 (2,756 23 TDs and 8 INTs while rushing for 512 yards and 3 TDs; very, very, very similar numbers to Jake Locker a year ago; except Dalton ran for more yards, Locker ran for 388, but fewer TDs, Locker had 7). Dalton will have a good year, but he is a long, long, long, longshot to win the trophy.

Oklahoma Landry Jones, Sophomore QB. Jones performed more than admirably after Sam Bradford went down against BYU and finished with 3,198 yards 26 TDs and 14 Ints. Nice numbers to be sure, especially for a freshman. He may perform well again (although is interception numbers are far too high, especially in that wide-open offense). Oklahoma does not have to face Nebraska during the regular season, but they do have two, maybe three, intriguing out-of-conference matchups against Florida State (in Norman), Air Force (in Norman), and Cincinnati (in Cincy). And they don’t have an open date before the Texas game as it is the week after the Cincy game. Also, I must add this tidbit: Jones simply does not look the part of a star QB. While completely unfair, it’s true. I mean, the guy had a mustache last year.

Iowa Ricky Stanzi, Senior QB. Stanzi is a nice QB who unfortunately got hurt very late last year. That being said, he’s not a viable candidate. Not enough numbers and I doubt very seriously that Iowa is going to have the same kind of run that they had last year (although… they get Ohio State at home in their penultimate game… but they have to travel to Arizona, a team that isn’t frightening by any stretch, but who is definitely good).

LSU Jordan Jefferson, Junior QB. I don’t think so. Jefferson is extremely erratic and doesn’t have anywhere near the numbers to support a candidacy. Their best player is actually CB Patrick Patterson, who is a surefire first-round draft pick after next year. But unless he has 10+ interceptions and returns five of them for touchdowns, LSU won’t have a candidate.

Penn State I don’t see a viable candidate here.

Miami Jacory Harris, Junior QB. His candidacy will be heavily impacted by the ‘Canes’ early schedule since they play at Ohio State in their second game and play at Pittsburgh in their third game. If both or at least one of those games was at home, I’d feel better about Miami’s prospects this year. I’m guessing that Harris will perform admirably, but he, and his team, are one year away from blowing up. And they will blow up. Miami is a ticking timebomb.

So that’s it. Those are the true contenders. There are other guys who may make some early noise (Case Keenum, Senior QB, Houston; Robert Griffin, Junior QB, Baylor; Jacquizz Rodgers, Junior, RB, Oregon State; Dion Lewis, Sophomore, RB, Pittsburgh; Noel Devine, Senior, HB, West Virginia; Ryan Mallett, Junior, QB, Arkansas; Andrew Luck, Sophomore, QB, Stanford; Jake Locker, Senior, QB, Washington), but the national-title contenders are the ones who will be in New York.

Speaking of Keenum, he is creeping up on some pretty significant passing records this year, but notice that guys he’s going to pass, none came within sniffing distance of the Heisman.

Most Passing Yards, Career – Current Record Holder: Timmy Chang, Hawaii (2000-04) 17,072; Keenum is 4,122 yards away from this record. He has 12,950 and threw for 5,671 yards last year and 5,020 the previous year. Pencil it in.

Most Passing Yards, Season – Current Record Holder: B.J. Symons, Texas Tech (2003) 5,833; definitely doable since he was only 162 yards from it last year.

Most Passing Touchdowns, Career – Current Record Holder: Graham Harrell, Texas Tech (2005-08) 134; Keenum currently has 102 career TDs, 32 short of the record, he’s averaged 44 TDs the last two years… tattoo it….

Most Pass Attempts, Season – Current Record Holder: B.J. Symons, Texas Tech (2003) 719; Keenum nearly had this record last season when he attempted 700.

Most Pass Completions, Career – Current Record Holder: Timmy Chang, Hawaii (2000-04) 1,388; Keenum has 1,076 career completions leaving him 312 shy of the record, he’s averaged 444.5 completions the last two years. Etch it in stone.

Kellen Moore also has a slim chance at two of these current career records given the pace that he’s set at Boise State (completions and touchdowns), but as great as Moore has been statistically, it just makes Keenum’s pace look even more absurd. But, again, B.J. Symons finished No. 10 in the Heisman race in 2003, Timmy Chang didn’t crack the top 10 in 2004, and Graham Harrell finished a promising fourth in 2008, but only garnered 4% of the vote behind Sam Bradford (32%), Colt McCoy (30%), and Tim Tebow (29%). So record-breaking, even at these stratospheric levels, is not enough to garner serious consideration for the Heisman. Houston does play some intriguing out-of-conference games (UCLA, Mississippi State, and Texas Tech) and if they run the table, perhaps Keenum will have a shot.

So there you have it. Locker will win the Heisman if, and only if, he decides to mainline meth and antifreeze, which is to say he goes crazy. I’d love to see it, but it seems unlikely. My money, if I had any at all and if I bet, would be on Terrelle Pryor.