The parade of tired Warriors opponents continues for a little while, but just for a little while…

-Utah lost to the Clippers in Salt Lake City last night, and will play the Warriors tonight at Oracle.

That’s the 9th time so far this season that the GSWs play an opponent on the end of a BTB… out of 20 games.

(The Warriors play at Sacramento on Saturday, with both teams having the day off before the game.)

Advertisement

Then Oklahoma City comes back to Oracle on Tuesday, a day after playing in Portland.

And then the Nuggets host the Warriors, a day after Denver hosts Dallas.

The Warriors will have a day off before each of these games.

Let’s add it up…

* Eleven of the Warriors’ first 23 opponents (through the Denver game) will be on the end of a back-to-back.

–That’s 47.8% of the Warriors’ early-schedule games vs. tired opponents.

Wow. Even in this compressed, 66 games in 4+ months, that’s stunning.

I knew the Warriors keep playing teams on BTBs, but I didn’t think it was close to 50% until I added it up.

* Also, the Warriors have been kissed by the early-schedule gods, because they’ve only had 4 BTBs of their own so far and won’t have another until Feb. 13 a t home against Phoenix, a day after the GSWs play at home against Houston.

So only 4 of the Warriors’ first 24 games come on the end of a GSW back-to-back… or 16.6%.

Opponents tired almost 50% of the time. Warriors tired less than 20%.

That’s a good combination for the GSWs, too bad it hasn’t worked out so wonderfully in the standings.

Advertisement

And, of course, the GSWs will pay for this on both ends as the season unfolds.

The final rush of the season will give them fewer tired opponents and put the GSWs on the bad side of BTBs far more often.

* After that game in Denver, only 9 of the Warriors’ last 43 opponents will be on the end of a BTB.

That means only 20.9% of the Warriors’ schedule after Feb. 7 will involve an opponent who played the previous night.

* And 14 of the Warriors’ last 42 games put the GSWs on the end of a BTB.

That’s 33.3%.

Keep an eye on this one. I’m sure other teams have easy-upfront/brutal back-loaded schedules this year or have had them in the past, but I know I’ve never seen it up close.

—If you’re looking at him for All-Star purposes, this is not one of Monta Ellis’ greatest early-seasons, certainly not statistically.

His scoring average is way down, FG% is way WAY down (at 40.8% for a career 46.6% shooter), his turnovers are up, his minutes are down.

Ellis’ assist average, however, is up to 6.9 per, from 5.6 last season, but nope, that does not quite offset the other stuff (if you’re just reading the stat line for ASG purposes).

But if you toss out the actual game-performance (as I know many All-Star voters do), this actually might be Ellis’ best shot to make a Western Conference All-Star team, which should make the Warriors very happy.

For PR, for trade value, for whatever…

By the way, I don’t actually think Ellis will get in when the reserves are announced Feb. 9.

But I do believe it’s the best shot he’s had (and remember, I’ve been the one who has always cautioned GSW fans and execs that he had little chance in years past).

Ellis has a better chance this year due to these coalescing factors

1–Stephen Curry has been hurt much of this season, which eliminates the chances of him blocking Ellis’ candidacy.

I’ve presumed that the much more popular Curry would get the nod from coaches/David Stern over Ellis–if the GSWs were to finally get a player in the game–from here on out.

If the Warriors win, I believe Curry probably will have more to do with that and will be credited more for that… than Ellis. Is it politics? Some.

I mean, Stern already signaled how much he liked Curry by holding out for Curry in any Chris Paul-Warriors talks last December, which the Warriors declined to do.

Curry ahead of Ellis, from here on out… But not if Curry misses a huge chunk of the games before the teams must be decided, which he has done.

2–It won’t be David Lee, either.

3–Several of the stars in the West who have eaten up spots on the roster–and bumped out Ellis–in the past aren’t around for consideration this time.

-Deron Williams and Carmelo Anthony are in the East.

-Manu Ginobili and Zach Randolph are hurt this season.

-Yao Ming is retired.

4–In such a quick evaluation period due to the lockout, it’s hard to evaluate some of the other guards/wings who could be Ellis’ peers this time around like Mike Conley Jr., Tony Parker, James Harden, Tyreke Evans, Raymond Felton and Kyle Lowry.

The East and West starters will be named tonight, and I think the West’s starters will be something like:

C-Andrew Bynum.

F-Kevin Durant, Blake Griffin.

G-Kobe Bryant, Chris Paul. (Ricky Rubio might jump in for Paul, depending on the late vote.)

I’d say the obvious reserve choices would be:

C-Marc Gasol.

F-Kevin Love, LaMarcus Aldridge, Dirk Nowitzki.

G-Rubio/Paul, Russell Westbrook.

That’s 11 players. The roster is 12.

Which leaves the final spot down–plus very likely injury-replacements– to pretty much picking from…

F-Pau Gasol.

C/F-Nene.

F-Danillo Gallinari.

F-Rudy Gay.

F/G-James Harden.

G-Tony Parker.

G-Steve Nash.

G-Monta Ellis.

G-Chauncey Billups.

G-Kyle Lowry.

Maybe I forgot somebody…

Again, I wouldn’t think Ellis is going to get in. He’s not having a great first portion of the season, his team isn’t winning, and the coaches tend to pick the reserves from winning/cohesive teams.

Which means: Never the Warriors.

My personal choice for the last spot would probably be Gallinari or Lowry, but nobody from the league has called and asked me.

Plus, it’s the All-Star team, which is generally dumb, and it’s in a shortened season, so we’re deciding this on… 20-25 games, with guys going down with injuries all over the place?

The biggest reason Monta has a decent chance at the All-Star Game this year is that the Shooting Guard position has basically evaporated in the conference.

Kobe is obviously at the front of the line, while the retirement of Brandon Roy and the injuries to Manu have taken out two guys who could or would consistently stand in Monta’s way.

In terms of true SG’s, the only guys left that warrant any ASG consideration are Monta, James Harden, Kevin Martin, and Eric Gordon (who has been hurt the whole season thus far).

The PG slots are stacked with CP3, Nash, and Westbrook, much less guys like Tony Parker, Ty Lawson, Steph, and the remarkable Kyle Lowry.

The biggest challenges Monta faces are the fact that Harden and Martin both play on teams with better records while currently having better 2011-2012 seasons and the potential for other swingmen like Gay or Caron Butler to slide in and take the spot.

This was the year for Monta to grab that 2nd SG slot, but he hasn’t had the year to warrant getting it. Let’s see if the NBA gives the spot to him anyway.

Greg Monroe is being considered in the East which makes me want to kill myself. We needed a C. A C was available. That C was expected to be our pick. Instead we took Udoh. A guy we could’ve traded down for.

This team is a joke.

SoCalWarrior

Please don’t ever bring Monta up in discussion of All-Stars again. He’s just not one.

Let’s say the West takes 6 total guards, regardless of PG or SG.

Locks:
Kobe
CP3
Westbrook
Nash

Ahead of Monta
Lowry
Chauncey
Lawson
Rubio
Felton
Parker
Jack

Discussion over.

SoCalWarrior

I would even put Mo Williams ahead of Monta. In my book, he’s in line for 6th man of the year.

Also didn’t mention the Mavs guards, both of whom I’d take over Monta in a draft today.

JKidd
JTerry

robert rowell

#6 i agree with you, but lowery, billups, felton and jarret jack over monta? that’s a laugher. there are plenty of great guards ahead of monta, too bad most of them didn’t make your list.

i watched the utah/clips game last night. wow. good thing we didn’t go all in with CP3. that dude pretty much just RAN sh!t. i haven’t seen basketball like that played at the Snore-icle since, well, a long time. it was a great game, by two pretty good squads. the jazz bring it like they did last night and it’s gonna be a long night for the W’s.

Speculator

Monta an All Star? Huh? Lucky Curry not blocking him? Huh???

Newsflash: no one on the Warriors is an all-star this year. Not even close.

Tim, tell me you’ve not gone homer on us.

jason

@1 Good one, WorriedWarrior… and Sprewell’s record is still safe. We need a new GM. Someone who will take this team in another direction.