Solar Storms Building Toward Peak in 2013, NASA Predicts

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Solar flares like the huge one that erupted on the sun early
today (Aug. 9) will only become more common as our sun nears its
maximum level of activity in 2013, scientists say.

Tuesday's flare was the
most powerful sun storm since 2006, and was rated an X6.9 on
the three-class scale for solar storms (X-Class is strongest,
with M-Class in the middle and C-Class being the weakest).

Flares such as this one could become the norm soon, though, as
our
sun's 11-year cycle of magnetic activity ramps up, scientists
explained. The sun is just coming out of a lull, and scientists
expect the next peak of activity in 2013. The current cycle,
called Solar Cycle 24, began in 2008.

"We still are on the upswing with this recent burst of activity,"
said Phil Chamberlin, a solar scientist at NASA's Goddard Space
Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md., who is a deputy project
scientist for the agency's Solar Dynamics Observatory, a
sun-studying satellite that launched in February 2010. "We
could definitely in the next year or two see more events like
this; there's a potential to see larger events as well."
[ Sun's
Wrath: Worst Solar Storms in History ]

A more active sun

Earth got lucky with the most recent flare, which wasn't pointed
directly at Earth; therefore, it didn't send the brunt of its
charged particles toward us, but out into space. However, we may
not be so fortunate in the future, experts warned.

"We're in the new cycle, it is building and we'll see events like
this one," said Joe Kunches, a space scientist with the National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s Space Weather
Prediction Center. "They'll be much more commonplace and we'll
get more used to them." [ Stunning
Photos of Solar Flares & Sun Storms ]

Spacecraft such as the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), which
recorded amazing
videos of the Aug. 9 solar flare, and other observatories
will be vital in monitoring the sun during its active phase,
researchers said.

How sun storms form

Storms brew on the sun when pent-up energy from tangled magnetic
field lines is released in the form of light, heat and charged
particles. This can create a brightening on the sun called a
flare, and is also often accompanied by the release of a cloud of
plasma called a coronal mass ejection (CME).

These ejections are the part we Earthlings have to worry about.

As the CME careens through space, it can send a horde of charged
particles toward our planet that can damage satellites, endanger
astronauts in orbit, and interfere with power systems,
communications and other infrastructure on the ground.

"We're well aware of the difficulties and challenges," Kunches
told SPACE.com. "We know more about the sun than we ever have."

Can we predict solar storms?

When a big storm occurs, the Space Weather Prediction Center
releases a warning to the U.S. Department of Homeland Security,
emergency managers and agencies responsible for protecting power
grids. Then power grids can distribute power and reduce their
loads to protect themselves.

Still, scientists would like to offer more advanced warnings when
big storms are headed our way.

"We're being reactive, we're not being proactive," Chamberlin
said. "We don't know how to predict these things, which would be
nice."

Chamberlin said solar science has come a long way in recent
years, though, and the goal of SDO and other NASA projects is to
improve our understanding of the sun and our ability to forecast
space weather.