The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved fell 2.1% in January 2004, following falls in the previous three months.

The trend estimate for private sector houses approved fell 1.0% in January 2004. The trend has now fallen for five consecutive months.

The trend estimate for other dwellings approved fell 4.9% in January 2004, the fourth consecutive monthly fall.

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES

The seasonally adjusted estimate for total dwelling units approved fell 3.3%, to 14,048, in January 2004.

The seasonally adjusted estimate for private sector houses approved fell 4.4%, to 9,638, in January 2004.

The seasonally adjusted estimate for other dwellings approved rose 2.4%, to 4,282, in January 2004. This was driven by a large rise in Victoria.

The seasonally adjusted estimate of the value of total building approved rose 2.5%, to $4,421.0 million. Residential building fell 1.6%, to $2,854.4 million, with a 0.2% rise in new residential being offset by an 11.3% fall in alterations and additions. The value of non-residential building rose 11.0%, to $1,566.6 million.

Notes

CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

Commencing from this issue, a new Appendix (from page 38) lists electronic tables, data cubes and excel tables available from the ABS website and Ausstats.

REVISIONS THIS MONTH

Revisions have been made to total dwelling units in this issue:

2002-03

2003-04

TOTAL

New South Wales

33

54

87

Victoria

-

112

112

Queensland

43

74

117

South Australia

-25

16

-9

Western Australia

5

13

18

Tasmania

-

10

10

Northern Territory

-

45

45

Australian Capital Territory

-

-

-

TOTAL

56

324

380

DATA NOTES

There are no notes about the data.

Inquiries

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Andrea Woods on Adelaide (08) 8237 7350.

Summary Commentary

VALUE OF BUILDING APPROVED

NEW RESIDENTIAL BUILDING

The trend estimate of the value of new residential building has fallen for the last four months, following seven months of growth. The trend fell 0.5% in January 2004.

ALTERATIONS AND ADDITIONS TO RESIDENTIAL BUILDING

The trend estimate of the value of alterations and additions to residential building has fallen for the last four months, following ten months of growth. The trend fell 1.4% in January 2004.

NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDING

The trend estimate of the value of non-residential building has fallen for the last six months. The trend fell 0.5% in January 2004.

DWELLINGS APPROVED

TOTAL DWELLING UNITS

The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved has fallen for the last four months, following seven months of growth. The trend fell 2.1% in January 2004.

PRIVATE SECTOR HOUSES

The trend estimate for private sector houses approved has fallen for the last five months, following seven months of growth. The trend fell 1.0% in January 2004.

OTHER DWELLINGS

The trend estimate for other dwellings approved has fallen for the last four months. The trend fell 4.9% in January 2004.

DWELLING UNITS APPROVED - STATES AND TERRITORIES

SUMMARY COMMENTS

The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved fell 2.1% in January 2004. The trend was flat in Victoria, and fell in all other states and territories except the NorthernTerritory (+2.1%).

The trend estimate for private sector houses approved fell 1.0% in January 2004. The trend fell in all states except Queensland (+0.5%).

NSW

Vic.

Qld

SA

WA

Tas.

NT

ACT

Aust.

Original

Dwelling units approved

Private sector houses (no.)

1,395

2,208

2,100

474

1,289

176

21

68

7,731

Total dwelling units (no.)

2,710

3,644

2,941

692

1,551

198

72

114

11,922

Percentage change from previous month

Private sector houses (%)

-29.7

-13.5

-12.2

-38.5

-22.0

-9.7

-43.2

-29.2

-20.1

Total dwelling units (%)

-30.7

10.5

-9.4

-41.9

-19.5

-13.5

-20.0

-20.8

-15.1

Seasonally Adjusted

Dwelling units approved

Private sector houses (no.)

1,651

2,920

2,617

603

1,522

na

na

na

9,638

Total dwelling units (no.)

3,315

4,087

3,490

879

1,784

230

na

na

14,048

Percentage change from previous month

Private sector houses (%)

-17.7

10.6

-1.6

-24.1

-8.3

na

na

na

-4.4

Total dwelling units (%)

-12.8

14.5

-2.1

-19.5

-12.9

6.3

na

na

-3.3

Trend

Dwelling units approved

Private sector houses (no.)

1,842

2,825

2,618

692

1,626

na

na

na

9,940

Total dwelling units (no.)

3,488

3,918

3,521

926

1,988

230

103

139

14,419

Percentage change from previous month

Private sector houses (%)

-2.6

-1.3

0.5

-2.6

-0.5

na

na

na

-1.0

Total dwelling units (%)

-3.5

-

-2.0

-1.4

-1.6

-2.0

2.1

-3.5

-2.1

- nil or rounded to zero (including null cells)

na not available

DWELLING UNITS APPROVED - State Trends

NEW SOUTH WALES

The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved in New South Wales has fallen for the last five months, following four months of growth. The trend for private sector houses has fallen for the last five months.

VICTORIA

The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved in Victoria was flat in January 2004, following four months of decline. The trend for private sector houses has fallen for the last five months.

QUEENSLAND

The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved in Queensland has fallen for the last four months, following six months of growth. The trend for private sector houses has risen for the last twelve months.

SOUTH AUSTRALIA

The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved in South Australia has fallen for the last four months, following five months of growth. The trend for private sector houses has fallen for the last five months.

WESTERN AUSTRALIA

The trend estimate for total dwelling units approved in Western Australia has fallen for the last two months, following six months of growth. The trend for private sector houses has fallen for the last two months.

What If...? Revisions to Trend Estimates

Effect of new seasonally adjusted estimates on trend estimates

TREND REVISIONS

Recent seasonally adjusted and trend estimates are likely to be revised when original estimates for subsequent months become available. The approximate effect of possible scenarios on trend estimates are presented below. Generally, the greater the volatility of the original series, the larger the size of the revisions to trend estimates. Analysis of the building approval original series has shown that they can be revised substantially. As a result, some months can elapse before turning points in the trend series are reliably identified.

The graphs and tables which follow present the effect of two possible scenarios on the previous trend estimates: that the February seasonally adjusted estimate is higher than the January estimate by 4% for the number of private sector houses approved and 13% for other dwelling units approved; and that the February seasonally adjusted estimate is lower than the January estimate by 4% for the number of private sector houses approved and 13% for other dwelling units approved. These percentages represent the average absolute monthly percentage change for these series over the last ten years.

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