2014-11-04

Superbowl XLIX Projection, Week 9, Final

New England over Arizona

Indianapolis nearly took over the AFC lead with their victory Monday night. They're actually more likely to win the Superbowl than New England, and would be favored over them, but have just slightly less of a chance of winning the AFC, which is what I use to declare my projection each week.

I just noticed my "AFC=Red, NFC=Blue" color scheme is completely backwards with respect to team colors this week, though New England could be red too I guess.

Next week I may get to start chasing whether or not teams are truly eliminated when my hundreds of millions of simulations never show them making the playoffs even once. The Jets could lose and fall far enough to need a tiebreaker scenario to have any shot at their division, and Oakland could do the same against Denver. Jacksonville will be safe for another week, since Indianapolis only has 6 wins and a bye this week.

TEAM

Record

Strength

Div

Plyff

WC

Qtr

Semi

Champ

KC

5-3

0.627

33.757

65.380

45.273

24.622

13.237

7.370

BAL

5-4

0.627

18.478

40.115

24.160

12.904

6.889

3.834

IND

6-3

0.625

92.933

93.929

66.535

36.213

19.579

10.869

NE

7-2

0.619

72.236

86.285

68.692

36.900

19.677

10.801

PHI

6-2

0.599

67.171

85.617

65.499

35.377

18.953

9.546

DET

6-2

0.590

68.659

88.043

69.432

36.737

19.245

9.517

ARI

7-1

0.576

80.525

95.531

83.255

43.271

21.759

10.435

DEN

6-2

0.575

60.382

80.251

59.183

28.651

13.653

6.864

MIA

4-4

0.569

9.752

23.796

13.462

6.409

3.050

1.516

DAL

6-3

0.569

31.733

70.302

44.784

22.225

11.088

5.237

GB

5-3

0.556

25.211

53.219

32.082

15.394

7.473

3.433

SEA

5-3

0.555

15.015

50.406

29.919

14.376

6.935

3.183

PIT

6-3

0.552

41.269

64.334

42.251

19.262

8.700

4.174

NO

4-4

0.551

77.788

78.256

40.493

19.083

9.090

4.130

BUF

5-3

0.549

18.012

37.007

20.897

9.489

4.309

2.052

SD

5-4

0.541

5.861

20.297

10.444

4.697

2.103

0.985

CLE

5-3

0.534

14.528

29.679

16.299

7.134

3.106

1.433

HOU

4-5

0.519

6.944

14.444

6.793

2.910

1.242

0.555

SF

4-4

0.518

4.119

25.254

12.968

5.707

2.544

1.073

CIN

5-2-1

0.514

25.725

44.280

25.950

10.791

4.449

1.966

CHI

4-4

0.470

5.024

16.353

7.797

3.078

1.234

0.464

ATL

2-6

0.448

9.480

9.700

3.831

1.419

0.534

0.190

NYG

3-5

0.441

0.824

4.695

1.888

0.688

0.257

0.090

WAS

3-6

0.437

0.272

1.132

0.433

0.157

0.058

0.020

MIN

4-5

0.430

1.107

6.950

2.759

0.976

0.353

0.120

CAR

3-5-1

0.385

12.417

12.736

4.274

1.339

0.426

0.128

TEN

2-6

0.368

0.120

0.198

0.060

0.017

0.005

0.002

STL

3-5

0.368

0.341

1.480

0.490

0.146

0.044

0.013

TB

1-7

0.343

0.315

0.325

0.096

0.026

0.007

0.002

OAK

0-8

0.342

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

NYJ

1-8

0.323

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

JAC

1-8

0.303

0.004

0.004

0.001

0.000

0.000

0.000

First to 10% chance of Superbowl Win: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)

First to 80% chance of Playoffs: Cincinnati (Week 3, Sunday)
First to 90% chance of Playoffs: Indianapolis (Week 7, Sunday)