Wanted to follow-up on a post john made in another thread . . as follows:

"Edmonds.com says about 100,000 new subscribers in April???

Well not really, they just track new car sales month to month and they estimate that April sales are a little down from March at a sales rate of 988,100 cars sold in April. But we here can figure most to the rest out and at the present penitration rates (SIRIXM says 60%), after taking out present estimated churn rates you basically get to almost 100,000 new subs for April.

I will go further and say that if history holds and the next two months hold to history then May and June both should equal out to about the same as April therefore I am going to take a long shot in the dark and predict at least 300,000 new subs in the 2nd quarter (Of course this will be updated UP or DOWN once new sales figures come in)."

So (sometimes I like to start a sentence with the word "so" . . . Mel does that a lot and it makes him sound really smart - lol) . . . john, if you are saying 300,000 for Q2 . . .

Adding that to Q1, which is already in the bank, brings us to just under 500,000 subs through first half of year, correct?

Sounds to me like you are thus also predicting 1,100,000 - 1,200,000 subs for full-year 2010?

Wanted to follow-up on a post john made in another thread . . as follows:

"Edmonds.com says about 100,000 new subscribers in April???

Well not really, they just track new car sales month to month and they estimate that April sales are a little down from March at a sales rate of 988,100 cars sold in April. But we here can figure most to the rest out and at the present penitration rates (SIRIXM says 60%), after taking out present estimated churn rates you basically get to almost 100,000 new subs for April.

I will go further and say that if history holds and the next two months hold to history then May and June both should equal out to about the same as April therefore I am going to take a long shot in the dark and predict at least 300,000 new subs in the 2nd quarter (Of course this will be updated UP or DOWN once new sales figures come in)."

So (sometimes I like to start a sentence with the word "so" . . . Mel does that a lot and it makes him sound really smart - lol) . . . john, if you are saying 300,000 for Q2 . . .

Adding that to Q1, which is already in the bank, brings us to just under 500,000 subs through first half of year, correct?

Sounds to me like you are thus also predicting 1,100,000 - 1,200,000 subs for full-year 2010?

SRK

If you noticed I included, "if history holds" then that will happen. First I would like to say that is only an ESTIMATE from edmonds.com (we will know what the real numbers are soon enough, I think 2:00 today). Second that is once again going from past history of sales and how closely the following months were to April. I do think if the economy stays stable that they will be simular and that we will get to something like 300,000+ subs in the 2nd quarter. The numbers are the numbers and if churn remains the same as usual then they will bore out to at least 300,000 in the 2nd quarter. So now on to the furture quarters after the 2nd quarter. Those numbers from the 2nd quarter are as far out as I would like to go because the ones I just gave are an estimate. I would not like to project that far out there are just to many things that could happen. I could see, and lets not forget that 3rd quarter is not the greatest for car sales, last year was helped by the "Cash for Clunkers", so that was an anomaly and not something I would include in any projections. Putting that aside, I still think they may get as many as 700,000 to 850,000 new subs for the year but that is as high as I would like to go at this time.