mgo.licio.us

"The face of the operation is Briatore (referred to exclusively in the film by his colleagues and angry, chanting detractors as "Flavio"), an anthropomorphic radish who spends most of his time at QPR plotting to fire all of the managers."

At press time, Harbaugh had sent Michigan’s athletic department an envelope containing a heavily annotated seating chart, a list of the 63,000 seat views he had found unsatisfactory, and a glowing 70-page report on section 25, row 12, seat 9, which he claimed is “exactly what the great sport of football is all about.”

Diaries

This may or may not have been one of the top six swing plays (it was) via Mgoblue.com

1. The Six Factors

Exp Score

Early Conv

Bonus Yds

Avg 3rd Dist

Adj 3rd Conv

Red Zone

Offense

29.8

57%

95

7.0

-22%

5.7

Defense

35.1

45%

52

11.7

+4%

7.0

Thanks to going –1 in the short (or no) field turnover department, Michigan had another game on the wrong side of the field position numbers. On a down by down basis, Michigan really dominated. A large spread on early conversions, a solid lead on bonus yards although 95 isn’t an overwhelming number for the offense. The defense bounced back against the big plays after an uncharacteristic performance against Akron. Michigan also forced UConn into some awful third downs, but the Michigan offense was not good on third downs. Michigan’s game winning field goal was the lone red zone deficiency for either team.

So aside from the turnovers, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the game? The turnovers made the game awful and the offense put forward its least dynamic showing of the season, but the defense looks to be back on track after a bad second half at Akron. As has been noted everywhere, if Devin Gardner can his head back on straight, this could still be an excellent season. The defense should limit the floor and a continuation of this level of turnovers would be unprecedented. The ceiling looks less certain but its definitely not as bad as the last two weeks have felt.

Legend

Exp Score: A team’s expected points based on where a team started its drives

Early Conversion: The percentage of first downs' that are converted prior to a third down play

Bonus Yards: All yards gained after the first down marker

Average 3rd Down Distance: Average yards to go on third down

Adjusted 3rd Down Conversion: Rate of conversion for a team on third down, adjusted for the standard conversion rate based on yards to go, 0% is average

All categories except field position are based solely on plays in competitive situations (all first half plays and any second half plays where the drive begins or ends within two scores).

2. Individual Performances

Devin Gardner: +5.3 +13%

Fitzgerald Toussaint: +4.1, +16%

Lyle McCombs: +0.1, +1%

Chandler Whitmer: –0.7, –34%

Despite all the horrible, awful, no good plays from Gardner he still manages to put up enough good plays to more than offset them. It will be another week or two before I kick in the opponent adjustments, but this will almost certainly be his worst rated game to date.

In terms of overall win contribution, the offense contributed about 60% of the win and defense about 40%. This is actually a pretty high number for the defense.

3. Game Chart & Swing Plays

+11.6% Toussaint scores form 12 yards out to tie it up at 21

-12.2% The punts hits off of D’Mario Jones’ leg and is recovered by UConn

-13.4% Gardner stuffed on 4th down with Michigan trailing by 7

+15.0% Foxx loses 3 on the screen to set up 3rd and 13 on Uconn’s final drive

-15.6% Gardner fumbles on the sneak (-8.4%) and UConn returns it for a TD (-7.2%)

+19.6% Whitmer picked by Morgan (+11.4%) and returned for 29 yards (+8.2%)

So that’s two bad offensive plays, one good offensive play, a bad special teams play and two good defensive plays. Echoes the feeling from the game of the offense being a disaster in general. But after Morgan picked off Whitmer and got a great return, things turned in Michigan’s favor quickly.

The third quarter was just a mess but other than the turnover and some initial yards at the beginning of UConn’s final drive the fourth quarter saw almost every play move the odds in Michigan’s favor.

4. Ron Zook Dumb Punt of the Week

I had a request on twitter to award this to Dantonio for putting in an ice cold Andrew Maxwell for the final drive against Notre Dame. While it probably wouldn’t have mattered either way, it was probably over thinking things a bit. The good news for Michigan State is at least it didn’t add any confusion to a stable quarterback depth chart.

Clemson and NC State kicked the week off on Thursday night with three punts from the opponent’s half of the field and 3 or fewer yards to go.

But I am going to go ahead and give it to Michigan State anyway. Between the Maxwell move and two punts while trailing in the final minutes of the Notre Dame game, the worst being a 4th and 5 from the 45.

Mark Dantonio is your Week 4 Dumb Punter of the Week

Bonus Futile Field Goal of the Week. Austin Peay just wanted to avoid the shut out against the OHIO Bobcats but kicker Walter Spears would have none of it. Spears missed chip shot field goals of 32 and 26 yards and had a 39 yarder blocked on consecutive possessions in the second half as the Governors fell 31-0.

5. Prediction State of the Stats

Exp Score

Early Conv

Bonus Yds

Avg 3rd Dist

Adj 3rd Conv

Red Zone

Offense

27.6 (48)

52.9% (28)

156 (40)

7.3 (96)

-1% (71)

5.8 (30)

Defense

31.1 (106)

44.6 (27)

102 (27)

7.2 (25)

+9% (97)

3.6 (23)

Devin Gardner: +14 (unadjusted), 22nd in the country/4th in B1G

Fitzgerald Toussaint: +1.4 (unadjusted), 76/10

Michigan Offense: 39th/8

Michigan Defense: 38th/5

The numbers are still pretty loose at this point, most schedules are soft and opponent adjustments haven’t kicked in yet. If Gardner pulls out of his slump, there is plenty of opportunity for him to contend with the top QBs in the country. Currently he trails Taylor Martinez and Nate Sudfeld! and Nathan Scheelhaase! I am as surprised as you. Toussaint is still a long way from the Melvin Gordon’s of the world but is at least in the middle of the pack as opposed to last year.

Although Michigan’s offense is 8th in the conference, the top 8 are pretty packed. With Penn St, Iowa and Purdue in a second tier and then Michigan State way back.

On the six factors the defense has been really solid across all metrics but third downs. The offense has been more sporadic. Good as early conversions and red zone, decent at big plays and below average on third down distance and third downs. The turnovers have created a field position gap of half a TD per game.

6. Bye Week Bonus

Completely unrelated to anything else I do here, but I have been working on the side to design Michigan Stadium out LEGOs. I recently finished the design and have ordered the parts. Hoping to have this one a kind set built and displayed in the next couples. I will try and post some pictures to twitter when it’s done. The final structure will be about 2.5 feet square and nearly a foot tall. For now, here is the final design.

Note: Several people have expressed interest in doing this, email me at themathletebt at gmail if you are one of them

(Click the Image to See Full Size Version)

Go off, enjoy the bye week, pretend that your life doesn't revolve around Michigan football, and have faith in the people whose lives do and actually should.

THE BLOCKHAMS™ runs (typically) every week here at MGoBlog and on its official home page. Also, don't forget to check out the Friday Fun, my weekly single panel comic based on trending Michigan events, available on Twitter and the home page every Friday.

2013. The season of Manball. The season of Devin Gardner. The thumping of CMU. The return of Ol' 98. The full bucket of KFC after Notre Dame. The...WTF just happened?

Brady Hoke appeared poised to repeat the third-year success of past Michigan coaches with more of his recruits taking the field and the full installation of his offensive philosophy of MANBALL. An easier schedule meant 9 wins was almost a worst-case-scenario. Ohio at home was going to be the most significant edition of "The Game" since 2006.

Is it time to throw all of that away?

Michigan is 4-0 heading into its first bye week, but never has undefeated felt so much like a funeral. CMU went as expected, Notre Dame was pure joy; now there is an anxious certainty that armageddon is just around the corner.

You know it's bad when the gif is from The Shining

But I thought, "Maybe it's not as bad as it looks. Maybe there is some semblance of hope in the numbers that I'm just not able to see now." So I set out to find solace in statistics, in search of some great white buffalo to sooth my soul.

Let's start with Akron. We're talking about a team that has picked-up only 17 recruits ranked above two stars on rivals in the last five years. To put that in perspective, Michigan had 17 players with FOUR stars or better in the 2013 class alone. Saying there is a "talent gap" is like calling the Grand Canyon a pothole.

Maybe a chart will make me feel better:

Date

Opponent

Surface

Result

Rush Yards

Pass Yards

Plays

Total Yards

Yards/Play

08/29/13

@ UCF

Grass

L 7-38

134

116

60

250

4.17

09/07/13

James Madison

Turf

W 35-33

69

287

57

356

6.25

09/14/13

@ 18 Michigan

Turf

L 24-28

107

311

79

418

5.29

09/21/13

La.-Lafayette

Turf

L 30-35

134

321

70

455

6.50

Totals

444

1035

266

1479

5.56

This is Akron's offensive output through their first four games. UCF held Akron to 168 fewer yards and 1.12 fewer yards/play. How bad is 5.29 yards/play? Last season, only Alabama, Northwestern, Ohio State, and South Carolina averaged more yards/play against us. All of those teams finished the season ranked #17 or higher. UMass averaged 3.92 yards/play; Purdue 3.49; Illinois 2.53. Even Nebraska only posted 5.02, while Air Force managed 4.63.

Not since GERG has a cupcake been able to move the ball so effectively against Michigan, and even the 2008 defense had a better average yards/play than 5.29. So yeah, that's really bad. I'm not feeling any better yet. Maybe another chart?

Date

Opponent

Surface

Result

Rush Yards

Pass Yards

Plays

Total Yards

Yards/Play

08/31/13

Central Mich.

Turf

W 59-9

242

221

68

463

6.81

09/07/13

22 Notre Dame

Turf

W 41-30

166

294

72

460

6.39

09/14/13

Akron

Turf

W 28-24

177

248

62

425

6.85

09/21/13

@ Connecticut

Grass

W 24-21

192

97

72

289

4.01

Totals

777

860

274

1637

5.97

That's better. Our offense cranked out 6.85 yards/play vs. Akron--even better than we did against CMU. Sure, there were some negative plays and the MANBALL didn't really get going until late, but you can't argue the offense wasn't productive when it piled-up 425 yards on just 62 plays. The real problem was the 62 plays--a number indicative of bad defense and turnovers. If we get to 70 plays--roughly our average in the three other games--we're looking at about 480 yards of offense.

But there was something in that chart that bothered me...

HOLY $#!%!!! We only managed 4.01 yards/play agasint UConn? The only game we did worse than that in 2012 was Nebraska. We put up 4.80 yards/play agasint 'Bama, 5.26 against MSU, and even managed 4.53 against ND. Only MSU and VaTech held us under 4.01 yards/play in 2011 (3.73 and 3.54, respectively) and NO ONE kept us that low in 2010. In 2009, Penn State held us to 3.42. Three teams did in 2008--but those three teams had a combined seven losses. In 2007, Penn State allowed just 3.91, while Ohio didn't let us move: we averaged just 1.49 yards/play.

What do you notice about all those teams? They're good. Most of them were really good. I am not willing to go back further than 2007, but I seriously doubt Michigan has ever had such a poor offensive performance against a cupcake. We averaged 6.22 in The Horror.

I need more chart.

Date

Opponent

Surface

Result

Rush Yards

Pass Yards

Plays

Total Yards

Yards/Play

08/29/13

Towson

Grass

L 18-33

81

206

55

287

5.22

09/14/13

Maryland

Grass

L 21-32

25

349

79

374

4.73

09/21/13

18 Michigan

Grass

L 21-24

47

159

57

206

3.61

Totals

153

714

191

867

4.54

UConn managed just 3.61 yards/play against us. That's basically what MSU and VaTech did to us in 2011, and it's far better than Towson or Maryland fared against the Huskies. It's even better than the 3.68 yards/play we allowed to CMU. Only Purdue and Illinois were held to lower yards/play in 2012, and only Illinois in 2011. Miami (NTM) and Delaware State were the only teams held under that average in the RR era, and in 2007 we held Minnesota to 3.50 and Notre Dame to...1.44.

So...how bad?

In the Akron game, the defense was really, really bad. Against an opponent whose players barely make the Rivals rankings. In the UConn game, the offense was even worse. While UConn's 40 three-star recruits (and one four-star!) in the last five classes make Akron jealous, they're hardly a football powerhouse.

The good news is that only one side of the ball sucked in both games (although special teams certainly haven't helped much). That kept us from a second-coming of The Horror. The bad news is that we are capable of playing at historically bad levels on both sides of the ball. Elite teams don't do that.

Based on the last two weeks, it's hard to look at any of our remaining games and feel totally secure. We're not playing anyone as bad as Akron or UConn the rest of the way. If our offense plays like they just did, Minnesota could beat us. If our defense plays like they did against Akron, Indiana could beat us. I just threw-up in my mouth thinking about that.

If we can get the team to play to its potential on both sides of the ball, we could definitely still get to double-digits in the win column. That's a big "if". For now, I'm revising my 10-2 prediction to 8-4. We could easily lose four-out-of-five in November, or Penn State could trip us in October.

It's frustrating that I am this nervous/anxious for the Minnesota game as a measuring stick.

All Part Of The Plan?: Now I see – this is just all part of the plan. After all, what do you learn by rolling over an "easy" opponent in what is basically a glorified scrimmage? Pretty much nothing. But, tough come-from-behind victories and overcoming adversity ……… now that is worth something! Oof.

Synopsis: Michigan's TOM for the game was – 3 and for the year it is now – 5 (– 1.25 per game) which is ranked #111. Turnovers were not a primary factor in determining which team won the game. But, the game would not have been nearly as close without the TOs. Michigan suffered a net disadvantage of –7.75 expected points due to the – 3 turnover margin (see details below in section on Expected Points). Michigan's one takeaway saved the day in this game just as their two takeaways saved the day against Akron. Without those interception takeaways, M is sitting at 2-2 and the pitchforks are being wielded.

Morgan made a fabulous interception and Michigan's 6 interception takeaways for the year is ranked #16 in the nation. The Michigan defense is ranked #35 for interception takeaway percentage at 3.7%. Gardner threw two interceptions and now has 8 for the year. M is ranked dead last (#125) for interceptions thrown percentage at 8.3%. Devin also lost his second fumble of the year.

Player Details: Here is the overall summary for all games by player (data in yellow was affected by this week's game). .

National Rankings: All rankings include games between two FBS teams ONLY and are from TeamRankings except for forced fumbles which is from CFBStats. The four columns with *** show the best correlation to offense and defense (per Advanced NFL stats).

Turnovers And Winning: This chart shows turnover margin (TOM) at the end of the season versus the percentage of teams with a +4 WLM (8-4 record) or better. [WLM = Win/Loss Margin = Wins – Losses]

Expected Points: The impact of each turnover depends upon the down, the spot the turnover is lost, and the spot the turnover is gained. This week, the first turnover was the most difficult to determine EP. It was 3-6 on the UConn 33. Without the interception, it would have been 4-6 and Michigan could have tried a 50 yard field goal, could have gone for it, or could have punted (boo). Based on the assumptions in the EP table below, there is no lost EP for Michigan in this circumstance.

As many of you are likely aware, there was indeed one conference game this weekend and one team actually did not play, and these two facts contribute to the fairly respectable 8-3 performance of the Big Ten over this past week. We saw a good mix of drubbings and nailbiters, with our own game perhaps uncomfortably sitting in the latter category.

SCORING OFFENSE AND DEFENSE:

The “Points For” metric here should not shock anyone – Ohio State fills the spot that Vanderbilt would have occupied on their schedule with air and then handily bloodlets air by a score of 76-0, thereby securing them the top spot in average scoring. You have to travel down to seventh to find Michigan, averaging a still respectable 38 points per game coming out of non-conference play. Typically, that ends up being upper-tier performance in conference play.

The left side of the “Points Against” chart is basically what happens when you schedule teams that you are fairly certain that you can curbstomp (like Purdue), although this year it hasn’t exactly worked out that way for everyone. All the same, several teams are buoyed by shutouts and/or dominating performances against inferior competition. Michigan sits at seventh here as well, giving up an average of 21 points per game (although not all of this is the defense per se).

Here is the scoring differential, mainly so you can see Boilerquest.

TOTAL OFFENSE AND DEFENSE:

With only non-conference games in the books (with a noted exception), it’s difficult to say a lot about average yards per game on offense. Nine teams are averaging 400 or more, Michigan included - granted, we are ninth.

Michigan come sixth in yards allowed, with Michigan State allowing the least on average. The ND and Akron games sort of weigh on the average for Michigan, so in conference play, this will hopefully drop further. For perspective, it isn’t Nebraska or Illinois.

Here is the yard per play differential. Once again, Boilerquest.

RUSHING OFFENSE AND DEFENSE:

Michigan is ninth in the conference right now in rushing, although we’re not that far off our average in-game total from last year. Wisconsin, whose rushing game is the talk of the conference it seems, is far and away the leader here.

As for stopping the run, we’re quite good at it so far based on four games of data. In fact, five Big Ten teams have held their opponents to under 100 yards on average, although some of the opponents in question don’t typically do much rushing.

PASSING OFFENSE AND DEFENSE:

Michigan is seventh right now in passing offense, but again, 215 yards per game isn’t really terrible as an average and it is four games. Indiana throws it a lot, but then you look at their defense and see what they need to try and overcome, right?

Stopping big pass plays? We average 232 yards of passing allowed. Four teams right now are allowing under 200 yards passing per game, but at this point, some of this is due to some opponents not being terribly gifted in, well, any phase of the game.

THIRD DOWN CONVERSIONS:

First, here’s Boilerquest on the tempo-free stats –

We’re in the middle of the pack on converting third downs – we are 48.1% successful in this metric, which is a slight decrease from last week actually.

We improved quite a bit on the other side. Making UConn relatively unsuccessful (1 for 11) on third down put us once again below 40% in third downs allowed.

Due to time constraints and the fact that broken records sound even worse the second time around, I promise this post will be considerably abbreviated compared to earlier entries. To offset what I can only imagine will be a massive downgrade in creativity and humor, I will employ the time-honored and totally not schmaltzy “theme” for this week’s synopsis. I leave it to the reader to determine just what that through line is.

Worst: Ruff Offense

Let me set the stage for you: In a flurry to end the 3rd quarter, UM finished off an epic 75-yard drive with Toussaint’s 35-yard TD run, cutting UConn’s lead to 21-14 (!). The defense then weathered a couple of early completions to force UConn into a long FG attempt, which they missed. So UM took over, down 7 with the ball and driving to start the 4th quarter. A personal foul call on UConn set the Wolverines up on the 31 yard line, and it looked like the team was finally starting to find its “white people dancing at a wedding”-level rhythm offensively.*

On the first play, Al Borges looked into the BAD (Burn Another Down) part of the playbook and called a Fitz run that I can only imagine ended with him running into 1 or more offensive linemen’s posteriors 3 yards in the backfield and scampering forward for no gain. (Yes, this is foreshadowing). On second down, UConn’s totally unstoppable 4-man rush got pressure up the middle and flushed Gardner to the right side, where he held onto the ball while the 14-year-old controlling him kept pressing the stiff-arm and spin buttons instead of throwing the ball away, resulting in a 3rd and 17. The next play, at this point either a designed run or a de-facto run considering both the pressure Gardner was under and his clear discomfort in throwing the ball deep, resulting in a 15-yard pickup and 4 and 2 at the UConn 23.

Down 7 and with no promise that the offense would be that close to scoring again, Brady Hoke left the offense out there. As people noted in the liveblog, if UM isn’t able to get two measly yards against UConn, then so be it. After a Husky TO to think it over (I’m sure the conversation went along the lines of “easily dispatch of the offensive lineman in front of you and tackle the guy with the ball, fine gentlemen” because that seemed to be all UConn defenders needed to know on this night and apparently every conversation in my head is sponsored by Foppish Dandys), the playcall was the most obvious QB keeper possible, which still nearly worked except Devin fumbled the ball near the first-down marker and recovered about a foot and a half short. Turnover on downs, cats went running, beers were spilled, various furniture was kicked, etc.

If there was a better microcosm of UM’s offense the past couple of weeks, I’d like to see it. Against Notre Dame, I compared UM’s attack to a stacked Madden offense and wondered if it was the best/most dynamic of the last 15 years. In the last two games, against two of the worst defenses statistically in the FBS, UM has had 25 meaningful drives and recorded 7 TDs versus 9 TOs, including 2 that were returned for TDs by the opposition. It is an offense in free-fall, unable to really do anything particularly well outside of letting Devin run for his life or test Jeremy Gallon’s ability to enter inner orbit by throwing at the garden gnome standing on top of his helmet. I’ll get into more detail about the various faces of the offense below, but this display was actually more disheartening than against Akron simply because the last game felt like it could be chalked up to under-preparedness and/or lackadaisical play; a week later it sure seemed like UM was trying to get yardage and UConn would have none of it.

* Full disclosure: I’m a pretty stereotypical white guy, and my wedding (despite having a pretty kick-ass hora in this Gentile’s opinion), would have probably been a decent backdrop for a Dave Chappelle bit.

Worst: Stop digging!

Remember when Devin Gardner was spinning away from trouble and scampering for first downs, throwing bullets while under pressure, or calmly throwing the ball out of bounds when, heaven forbid, he was flushed from the pocket? Yeah, those were the days…of early September.

Last year, one of the things this blog and others raved about Devin was his field vision and willingness to keep looking downfield, trying to make a play with either his arm or his legs, unafraid to throw the ball out of bounds Now, every time he feels pressure (read: virtually every time he steps back to pass), he’s spinning around aimlessly or immediately tucking the ball and taking a loss even when he is a decent subway ride from the pocket. On the last drive of the 1st quarter, Gardner took a 16-yard loss scrambling around the field, never once seemingly contemplating throwing the ball away. Though he had thrown an INT on the last drive, it was this play that seemed the far more onerous one, portending a remarkably frustrating outing for a player that was seemingly exceeding the massive hype he had coming into the season. He went from being the best QB in the conference not backing up Braxton Miller to leading the nation in INTs (and I presume TOs though I don’t have that stat in front of me), and being one of the top 30 scoring players in the conference based on points scored for the other team.

Most of those turnovers are the result of simply trying to do too much: throwing across his body while being chased, trying to thread a ball through 3 defenders, lobbing bombs that come up short or are off the mark, failing to protect the ball because he is trying to twist, juke, or stretch for a couple more yards. And all this adds up to ever-deeper holes that UM has to ever-more-desperately try to climb out of. Down 3 late to Akron after seemingly having the game in hand entering the 4th quarter mushroomed into being down 14 to UConn midway into the 3rd quarter. While this phenomenon is certainly not solely due to Gardner’s play, he remains the focal point of a sputtering unit that must return to at least competent form if this team stands any chance in this division, let alone against some high-profile bowl opponent in the future.

Best: Just Roll with It

So for the first time all season, someone other than Gardner broke 100 yards rushing AND 5 ypc. It wasn’t pretty by any stretch, as Fitz had 12 of his 14 runs go for 3 yards or less, including a couple of times where he received the ball effectively off Miller’s ass as he was driven yards into the backfield. It remains very feast-and-famine with him lugging the ball, with about 30% of his 120 yards coming on the long TD run to halve the deficit in the 3rd quarter. Though the team as a whole failed to break 4 yards per carry, some of that can be attributed to some ill-timed runs by Gardner that resulted in lost yardage or minimal gain. And yes, I recognize just how poor the UConn defense was coming into the game; I woke up this morning muttering “Towson” and cursing the liveblog for reminding me of it, though it should be noted that the Tigers are 4-0 and have been obliterating teams so far this season.

For better or for worse, though, this is probably the best fans can hope for this outfit during the conference slate: a depressing number of minimal gains punctuated by some massive runs from Gardner as well as Fitz when he is able to make the first 2 or 3 guys miss. It will obviously be imperative for the line and TEs to cut down on holding penalties and other self-inflicted wounds, and someone needs to send whatever football-related methodone is required to wean Borges off his addiction to inside “power” runs, but I thought Fitz ran better in that second half (81 yards and 2 TDs with only 1 negative run and a couple rushes for no gain), and combined with Gardner’s mobility (provided he HOLDS ONTO THE DAMN BALL!) could provide a reasonably approximation to the rushing attack from 2011.

I do expect that some of the freshmen will see more time after the bye week, but I find it telling that Smith only played on special teams and Green didn’t touch the ball once all game. Minny’s highly-ranked, if lightly-tested, rushing defense should be a decent barometer as to whether this was a return of sorts for the running game or baseless optimism.

Worst: Now It’s Just Embarrassing

And you thought it couldn’t get worst than last week against Akron for this offensive line? Well, look what just happened, strawperson who watches UM football and thinks things can’t get any worse. UM’s line got served* by a unit that came into the game without a sack and 6 TFL’s (they record 3 and 10, respectively, against the Wolverines), and added 3 more QB hits. And beyond the obvious stats, there were numerous times when 3 and 4-man rushes were either driving Gardner from the pocket or forcing Fitz to bounce to the outside on runs. It was a dominating performance the likes of which people expected from Notre Dame’s NFL-stacked line, not the ramshackle one in Storrs.

While I want to believe that there will be changes made to the line during the bye week, what troubles me is that outside of Bryant at guard, I’m not sure who one can reasonably expect to step in and be an upgrade over the players already logging the reps. I mean, the guys out there won whatever amounted to “competitions” for these spots going into the season; to expect someone to come out of the woodworks (beyond major position shifts) seems like a pipedream. There should be some natural improvements just through familiarity and experience, especially at RG with Kallis, but it will fall on Borges and Funk to figure out a workable solution with the pieces they have on the field, a solution significantly better than the product that’s be trotted out there so far.

* In the same vein as my complaints about Varsity Blues movie logic issues, how did the the officials of the dancing competition at the end of You Got Served allow two teams team up, plus add about 10 new members, prior to the finals? Perhaps they were blinded by Steve Harvey’s teeth.

Meh: Air Dud

I’m breaking out the rare “Meh” when it comes to the receivers this game. Gardner was a mess, completing less than 50% of his passes and throwing 2 INTs. He locked onto Gallon a couple of times, one leading to the first INT, and was bouncing or sailing balls to open receivers throughout the game. At first blush I thought the receivers and ends were having trouble getting open, but on a couple of those tuck-and-runs in the second half it looked like Gardner ran through his progressions in about half a second and, either because of real or perceived pressure, just took off and ran the ball. This unit remains distressingly shallow in consistent playmakers (basically Gallon and that’s it), but there is only so much they can do when the defense is able to get pressure and stop the run without giving up coverage. As Chris Spielman (*shudder*) accurately pointed out, UConn didn’t respect UM’s running game and, thus, stayed back in coverage and really limited what UM’s offense could do throwing the ball. Given the fact that the Huskies were breaking in basically a whole new secondary, this was an opportunity for the receivers to reestablish some consistency we saw earlier in the season, and opportunity that they (get ready for the pun) dropped.

Best: Release the Chess-hound!

I do want to point out that Jehu Chesson again showed flashes of the playmaker this team desperately needs to complement Gallon and Dileo. I know he over-ran the ball on Gardner’s second INT and under-ran a probably TD after he beat the UConn coverage by a step in the 4th quarter, but on both plays you saw the speed people raved about. Both misplays seem to be due as much to inexperience as anything else, as freshmen coming from programs where QB play was sub-optimal are want to struggle with ball tracking in the air. Still, I expect him to continue to make strides in the passing game as the season progresses.

Also, he absolutely trucked UConn punt returners on two plays, including forcing a fumble that was recovered by the Huskies in that first half. He’s clearly not afraid of contact and, more importantly, is big enough to actually do something about it. Given the continuing struggles of the TEs to block in the running game, this physicality needs to continue.

Best: Here they come!

Only because of the offensive line’s continued struggles has the defensive line’s woes been (slightly) overlooked, but in this game they finally were able to generate both a consistent pass rush as well as a stout-ish run defense. UConn averaged under 2 ypc and under 5 ypa if you ignore the 26-yard completion on 4th-and-30 to end the game, and UM recorded 4 sacks to go along with 4 additional TFLs. Frank Clark recorded 2 of those sacks to go along with 5 tackles total, and Jibreel continued his solid season by recording half a sack to go along with 6 tackles and consistently getting penetration inside. Black will never be your prototypical tackle, and he probably won’t be able to hold up against bruising lines dedicated to running the ball (i.e. Minny in two weeks), but the “poor man’s Brandon Graham” analogies don’t seem off.

The secondary remains a work in progress, but it held up reasonably well. They were bailed out a bit by Geremy Davis’s overturned TD catch in the end zone, but (I believe) that was followed up by the punting fiasco that led to UConn’s last score. The LB’s in coverage remain troubling (I know, except for that one really GOOD thing I detail below), and guys seemed to find a way to get open up the seams way more frequently than UM’s guys do.

It wasn’t a dominant performance by any means, but it was a positive sign after not being able to generate anything resembling a defense in the second half last week against Akron. UConn barely broke 200 yards in total offense, only one drive longer than 40 yards, and 14 of those 21 points were either on the offense or special teams. Let’s hope this is a return of the Swag.

Best: Air Bud II: Morgan’s Electric Boogaloo

“Woodsonian” is both a strong and made-up word, but Morgan’s game-changing INT was a thing of beauty and really seemed to energize the team. I know there are different schools of thought regarding momentum, and I’m generally not a believer in any long-term effect, but I do think that it can exist within a small context, such as a single game or even just a half. UM looked horrible for most of the game offensively, and UConn had just stuffed Gardner’s 4-down conversion attempt. The defense had been on the field for large swaths of the game, and any score by UConn probably would have meant the game. So when Morgan skied for that pick and returned it to the 12, UM had new life. On the next play, Fitz took the ball outside and scored the tying TD. From that point on, UConn recorded 1 first down and 26 total yards on 2 drives, basically all those yards coming on a meaningless completion on 4th down. He didn’t “save” the season by any stretch, but it was the play of the game.

Worst: No More Norfleeting?

I’m definitely keeping my head on a swivel watching out for the banhammer on this one, but I’m starting to think the potential of Norfleet may never live up to the actual product on the field. He has seemingly lost the faith of the coaching staff on punt returns after muffing a couple in the past weeks, and while he remains a kickoff threat he’s rarely used in the offense except on obvious running plays and (maybe) a couple of passing routes when the team goes empty backfield. He remains very fast but has a season long of 15 yards as a receiver and one 38-yard run against CMU. He also has a penchant for getting tripped up on contact, and while that isn’t unexpected for such a small guy, it also doesn’t warrant much in the way of additional playing time.

Worst: Hold Onto the Damn Ball!

I noted this already, but UM lost the turnover battle 5 to 1, and while the Jones kicking the ball on punt coverage was just poor luck (it seemed like either a lack of communication or awareness that led to him being so close), the other 4 TOs were absolutely in the flow of the offense. Cut that number in half and I think UM wins this comfortably; they’ve been “lucky” the past couple of weeks that the opponents haven’t been able to really capitalize. I’m not saying Hoke needs to break out the duct tape, but the ball needs to stop hitting the ground or landing in other teams’ hands.

On the positive side, Wile booted 5 punts for an average of 42 yards, and Uconn nearly returned the punt turnover favor on Chesson’s big hit. So after last week’s Shankapalooza, it was nice to see UM even out the field position battle. Plus, Gibbons hit another FG, adding his name to another record.

Worst: Seriously, State of Connecticut?

I commented on the liveblog that apparently the University of Connecticut paid for the new seats they added to the stadium by diverting pay from groundskeeping, because that field was horrible. I’ve seen moderately-sized HSes with better turf, and it clearly affected both teams throughout the game. Coupled with the fact that the stadium is across from a Cabela’s and is 30 miles(!!) away from the main campus, and you can see why everyone except Connecticut’s AD was pushing for the game to be played at a bigger, better stadium. I get not every school will have the type of tradition and facilities as UM, but this is (in theory) the major state school in one of the richest states in the US; they should be able to provide a better gameday experience.

Best: Bye Week! Let’s All Get Excited!

Next week being a bye means I can finally get back to working…I mean doing work around the house…I mean spending more time with BronxBlueWife…I mean playing GTA V. Yeah, that sounds right.