Wrapping Up

The Turd is wrapping up his relaxation extravaganza this weekend and he'll be back at his post bright and early on Monday. Until then, here's some stuff for the weekend.

First of all, some charts. Let's start with the metals. Both have flat-lined, which is interesting because a flat-line usually precedes some type of dramatic move, either up or down. We see this sometimes on the short-term charts. We rarely see this play out over days on the hourly charts but here we are. My personal feeling is that we are very close to a significant break OUT and UP. We'll go into more detail on this on Monday.

And the grains are, quite literally, ON FIRE. Though they are susceptible to a sharp pullback here, the forecast isn't getting any better. And it's still July. Yikes. Here's the latest forecast for Kansas City, Missouri. Right in the middle of corn and soybean country.

And here are your weekly charts showing new all-time highs in both corn and beans. The DAG, which we first discussed here a few weeks ago near $9, is closing in on $15, too.

The latest CoT was kind of a bummer. For the reporting week, gold rose $9 and silver rose 44c. In the face of that, The Gold Cartel added over 6000 new net shorts and The Evil Empire added just over 1000 new net short in silver. Not a disaster but not real encouraging, either. The only positive in the report is in the LargeSpecShortSheep category for silver where the LSSS added another 1,123 gross shorts. This brings their total up to over 20,000 at 20,775 and lowers the LargeSpec net long ratio to just 1.37:1. Again, for perspective, on 4/5/11, the LargeSpec net long ratio was 4.04:1 based upon 48,890 longs and just 12,105 shorts.

OK, that's all for now. I hope everyone has a safe and relaxing weekend and I look forward to getting back to "business as usual" on Monday.

TF

p.s. When I return, I expect the "Main St" thread comments to return to "normal", too. Main Street is where we discuss the metals, the economy and issues dealing with the end of The Great Keynesian Experiment. It is not the place for subjects like Zionist conspiracies and Chemtrails. All are certainly welcome to discuss those items here but it needs to be done in the forums. https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/forums/conspiracy-theories. Thank you in advance for your cooperation.

364 Comments

Harvey said, "Our friends over at the Silverdoctors.com web site has released the audio of the interview with Bill Murphy of GATA with respect to his London source. As a reminder, this London trader's views on what will happen have been 100% accurate over these past several years. The London trader believes that silver will explode in August."

sir, my large position is RIOAF,rio alto gold mining,large mine in Peru,21,000Ha[51,780 acres, has not been well explored,first year of production + 200,000 oz estimated for 2012, second quarter due second week of August,will be a copper mine with gold credits in 3/5 years, do your own diligence,price ~usd 4.36 second one RBY Rubicon Mining, extending their existing shaft,not in production yet, still drill and laying the foundation for a 1500/T/day mill[gold] only,Red Lake near Gold Corp low price $3.0 ish, good web site, jasmts

Most folks like myself work in black market, we don't pay taxes and hate our government for making life of people miserable here. According to our government we have overcame the crisis and everything is great. They don't care about hospitals and schools closing and folks dying on the streets at winter time.

Something I've always said - expect that day-to-day activities necessary for survival to become illegal. And that pretty much the only way to make it, nay, the NEXT growth industry will be - the black market. Systeme D. Under the table.

Whatever you want to call it, it happened in the past. Look at Weimar, look at Argentina, look at Zimbabwe.

When I spoke to Harvey Organ, he told me that Barrick changed the way gold was mined when they switched to OPEN-PIT MINING rather than UNDERGROUND. Before Barrick came on the scene, the majority of gold mining was done underground. If we look at South Africa we see that most of their mining was underground. South Africa produced most of the gold in the world prior to 1980.

Open-pit mining consumes so much more diesel than underground. Open-pit mining is safer as you don't have to deal with all the problems dealing with mining 1,000-2,000 feet underground. Underground mining has much less WASTE ORE.

Anyhow... I would imagine underground mining will become more in fashion when liquid fuels become more scarce and expensive.

For those interested in London Trader's track record and Harvey Organs' credibility here are some links and quotes:

"As a reminder, this London trader's views on what will happen have been 100% accurate over these past several years" - Harvey Organ July 21, 2012

"There are massive orders for tonnage of gold, incredible amounts between $1,715 and $1,760. This has the effect of putting a physical floor under the price of gold. If they make a push to the $1,715 level that would be suicide in my opinion. There are simply too many massive orders for physical gold down to that level for that to be breached"

In one of Jim's recent posts over at jsmineset he mentions a short conversation he once had with Indian avatar (spiritual master) Sai Baba. I can tell you with personal certainty that if Sai Baba saw fit to question Sinclair in this manner, we are truly on the right path and Jim can be trusted. That may seem a bit over the top in analysis, but my father's best friend spent 18 months studying under Sai Baba, and from his amazing accounts I am a believer... there are many paths to God, but universally the Divine Poet values love, selflessness, courage and bravery... often testing our worthiness in ascending to higher realms.

I would add that there is a LOT of black market activity already going on in the US, and the reason is government taxes and regulation. Ever visit a construction site? Who is doing all of the framing, roofing and brick laying? When the truck shows up to install the sod for the law, who makes up the work crew? One of the post offices that I use frequently is in a Hispanic neighborhood. If I ever go in on Friday afternoon, there are dozens of men there purchasing US Postal Service money orders for cash. The line is always longer at the post office than it is at the bank. I am certain that all of this business is done off the books.

What about the drug trade in the US? We probably have no idea how large that really is.

"Rich Ricci, head of Barclays’ investment bank, has ruled himself out of the running to replace Bob Diamond as chief executive as the troubled bank prepares to announce profits in the region of £1.7bn for the second quarter."

The problem i have with Kid's analysis is not so much that he doesn't know how to interpret raw data: he does a fantastic job doing just that.

But the problem i have with him, and so many others (also on this blog) is that they actually believe all that raw data, posted by the same parties that have proven time after time not to be reliable. 5 years ago i would have agreed, but taking into account Enron, Lehman Brothers, BLS, Libor, it's almost naive doing so today.

COT figures, delivered by the COMEX. Why should i believe any of that?

SLV figures by JP Morgan and co about silver being delivered. SLV figures about the number of shares outstanding. SLV figures about the physical silver/share ratio. Why should i believe any of that.

Same goes for GLD.

Physical gold in possession of central banks, sell/buy figures. Why should i believe any of that?

And i could go on for quite some time. Garbage in, garbage out.

I find Bron's argument in the Screwtape comments, that his company still can get their hands on enough physical without a huge premium, more reliable. Although a little voice inside me says that if i wanted to play the game of "everything is just fine nothing to see move on" that's what i would do till the very last minute if i were the EE: make sure everyone get's fast delivery until the last ounce is given away, and then sink the whole pyramid scheme.

Time will tell...i have read so many comments that "silver/gold are going to explode in august/september" that my reaction is to wait and see. But if it doesn't happen in those 2 months, a whole lot of "experts" will have lost total credibility. On the other hand, the opposite is equally true: if parabolic movements happen indeed, it was a con game all along.

The Cayman Islands: a favourite haven from the taxman for the global elite. Photograph: David Doubilet/National Geographic/Getty Images

A global super-rich elite has exploited gaps in cross-border tax rules to hide an extraordinary £13 trillion ($21tn) of wealth offshore – as much as the American and Japanese GDPs put together – according to research commissioned by the campaign group Tax Justice Network.

James Henry, former chief economist at consultancy McKinsey and an expert on tax havens, has compiled the most detailed estimates yet of the size of the offshore economy in a new report, The Price of Offshore Revisited, released exclusively to the Observer.

Although he is of course wrong, in his cute naivety, and will learn as he gets older that it is debt that was the great invention. Money is just an idea - a label for something that is very convenient to use as a medium of exchange. When we call pieces of paper money, it is obviously only true if someone else wants them. Money is not in anyway the root of all evil, it is merely the grease of efficiency.

Ref TF: "When I return, I expect the "Main St" thread comments to return to "normal", too. Main Street is where we discuss the metals, the economy and issues dealing with the end of The Great Keynesian Experiment. It is not the place for subjects like Zionist conspiracies and Chemtrails. All are certainly welcome to discuss those items here but it needs to be done in the forums."

I say Alleluia to that. People/Sheeple/Creeple bout time too.Get thee to a forum.

Metals rule to the moon, all-in and beyond! Tired of this 'other' crap.The Eden film was VG though.)))

"In the economic sphere an act, a habit, an institution, a law produces not only one effect, but a series of effects. Of these effects, the first alone is immediate; it appears simultaneously with its cause; it is seen. The other effects emerge only subsequently; they are not seen; we are fortunate if we foresee them.

"There is only one difference between a bad economist and a good one: the bad economist confines himself to the visible effect; the good economist takes into account both the effect that can be seen and those effects that must be foreseen.

"Yet this difference is tremendous; for it almost always happens that when the immediate consequence is favorable, the later consequences are disastrous, and vice versa. Whence it follows that the bad economist pursues a small present good that will be followed by a great evil to come, while the good economist pursues a great good to come, at the risk of a small present evil."

- From an essay by Frédéric Bastiat in 1850, "That Which Is Seen and That Which Is Unseen"

I have been captivated by the concept of the seen and the unseen in economics since I was first introduced to the idea. It is a seminal part of my understanding of economics, at least the small part I do grasp. The idea was first written about by Frédéric Bastiat, who was a French classical liberal theorist, political economist, and member of the French assembly. He was notable for developing the important economic concept of opportunity cost. He was a strong influence on von Mises, Murray Rothbard, Henry Hazlitt, and even my friend Ron Paul. He was a strong proponent of limited government and free trade, but he also advocated that subsidies (read, stimulus?) should be available for those in need, "... for urgent cases, the State should set aside some resources to assist certain unfortunate people, to help them adjust to changing conditions."

Big hat tip there S Roche, the screwtape file link is just what we need to guage the reliability of these so called '100% accurate insiders'. The ability to pool information on this site is what makes it so great. As such here's my contribution/expansion, hope it helps;

Record =

Jan 14th 2011 he got the bottom call wrong in Silver by $2 and 10 days

Jan 26th 2011 he got it spot on (news = 2 days before the Suez crisis started)

May 16th 2011 (Silver $34.50) he got it nearly right as price bottomed at $32.60 the next day before recovering (note it got smashed from $49 at beginning of May)

July 18th (Silver $40.55) he got it wrong for Silver as 2 days later it was down $2, though he got it right for Gold

Aug 10th (Silver $39.27) he got it nearly right as price bottomed next day at $38.20 (news Gaddaffi war ongoing defeated on 23rd, US downgrade on the 17th)

Sept 20th (Silver $40.25) HE GOT IT WRONG BIG TIME IN SILVER by calling a bottom at $38 ish. 1 week later Silver was at $$28.71

Oct 20th (Silver $30.30) He got it right for both Gold and Silver (the day Gaddaffi died)

Conclusion for Silver only = he's been spot on correct (within 2 days and $2) for 4 in 7 calls, BUT he's by no means 100% accurate & a $2 error at this point could prove highly expensive for paper traders, so be careful when reading headline claims!

On a brighter note (and this is 100% factual so I don't give 2c's whether you believe me or not), I can assure you that the really rich people ARE swapping bucketfuls of fiat /stocks for physical Gold (probably unallocated but that's irrelevant to the demand that's actually occurring)

I guess the number of people applauding Turd's stance is about 60 to 30 that find it a pitty that we restrict topics to those being mentioned.

I understand, from a business perspective, why it is done: there are more people thinking positive or main stream, than people thinking doom and gloom (i would call the latter group realists, but hey that's just me).

What i don't like, is that Turd doesn't take a stance, not once.

I would feel better if he would say "hey guys i don't believe in geo-engineering and alike and for peace-sake discuss it in the forums".

Leaving it up for debate but still banning it to the shadows of the forum (where very few, if any, read it) leaves a bitter taste in my mouth, and i know of many here that feel the same. I asked the same question in private email but didn't get an answer......

And i still regret that we don't have a debate, not once, about actual documents. Nay sayers call it bullshit, unbelievable, unreliable, not proven, yet i have yet to see the first one calling me out on links that i posted to. That, i truly find a pity.

If there are things that you feel are neglected in the global dialog, it is not that difficult to start your own blog. Getting readers is the tricky part indeed - so how to both satisfy an audience and deliver a message? How about using a strong mission statement:

The end of the Great Keynesian Experiment is upon us. Turd Ferguson and his band of loyal Turdites patrol this Watchtower. We are here to help each other navigate the coming economic chaos.

and trying to stick to it, while being so accommodating as to allow people to discuss whatever they want, but just not on the main page, which is trying to stay on message.

​I think Turd's approach has more support than you figure. He offers you or anyone else a blog within his blog, (where you can even direct people from Main St), but that's not good enough? Time to re-think your position I would suggest.

Cat and mouse game on! It appears that Assad has done a quick side step, by granting the Turkish Kurds (PKK terrorists or Turkish revolutionary freedom fighters depending on how you qualify them?), bases in Syria to attack Turkey (10% population of Syria are Kurds) = northern Syria stays loyal to Assad = frees up Assad troops to fight on other fronts. IMHO this now gives Turkey its own Afghanistan type war with the PKK able to flit across the border, hit a target in Turkey, and disappear again. This is not a good development for the world as hit & run enemies are expensive to fight & nearly impossible to defeat! History shows us this with the Boar wars / Britains occupation of Africa, Russian occupation/western occupation of Afghanistan = This is no longer going to be like the arab uprising in Lybia / Eygpt and I'm not sure how the western governments are going to be able to justify attacking the Syrian government on the basis of supporting the Syrian rebels, whilst at the same time attacking Turkish rebels on the basis of supporting the Turkish government?

Content

Features

DISCLAIMER: The charts and analysis provided here are not recommended for trading purposes. Trade at your own risk. The Turd provides knowledge not direction. Turd holds no liability for your trades and decisions but he's happy to take credit when credit is due, particularly through the "donate" button. Read more...