The peace test

The prospects for Basque peace after Spain's local elections are not great

LOCAL elections seldom matter. But as Spaniards vote for councils and mayors on May 27th, more than local politics is at stake. In the Basque country, peace is in the balance. Efforts by the Socialist prime minister, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, to strike a peace deal with ETA terrorists face a big test. Some observers expect ETA to resume its attacks after the vote. It all contrasts starkly with an end to political violence in another troubled region: Northern Ireland.

ETA's political ally, Batasuna, has no formal candidates in the election, thanks to a ban imposed in 2003. Demands for its reinstatement have fallen on deaf ears. Indeed, Mr Zapatero's government has put the banning law to wider use, to deal with some new militant separatists. Both they and the opposition People's Party are outraged. To the separatists, it has been too tough; to the PP, not tough enough. ETA may use the exclusion of Batasuna as an excuse to resume bombings.

Why have things apparently gone right in Northern Ireland but not in the Basque country? Spanish politicians say the two places are not comparable. Northern Ireland had two lots of terrorists—the IRA and Protestant paramilitaries. The Basques have but one: ETA. Some argue that peace deals are possible when two sides are at war, as in Northern Ireland, but not when one is fighting and the other is the state. A peace deal with a still armed ETA, the same logic goes, is impossible. The only solution is unconditional surrender.

Some Spaniards do not consider Northern Ireland such a success, either. They claim the Spanish model of intransigence practised before Mr Zapatero came to power in 2004 worked better. “The process in Northern Ireland has some very high costs,” says Rogelio Alonso, of Rey Juan Carlos University, pointing to the ruling alliance of hardline Protestants with Sinn Fein. “It has strengthened the extremes at the cost of moderates.” In any event ETA shows no signs of readiness to surrender: in December it killed two people in a bomb attack at Madrid's Barajas airport.

There are lessons to be learnt from Northern Ireland about getting terrorists to realise that violence is not helping them. Patience and fortitude, the negotiators' main virtues, are another. Mr Zapatero has made clear his admiration for Tony Blair's role in the Northern Ireland peace process. Advisers claim that he seeks Mr Blair's advice, though British diplomats say contact has been minimal. Mr Blair nevertheless offered Mr Zapatero encouragement at their last meeting in October.

One big difference between the two situations is that Mr Blair was backed by the opposition Conservatives. Mr Zapatero has gone it alone, because the PP insists on unconditional surrender. So any failures, airport bombs included, are potential vote losers. The future of the Basque peace process depends as much on the Socialists' showing at the local elections as on ETA's reaction. A general election is due next spring. A poor result this weekend could turn Mr Zapatero off the whole risky business of pursuing peace.