Weather Journal: Rain, Then Skies Clear

Nicole Elizabeth, from Bronx, N.Y. checks her email as she lies on a rock in Central Park this week.

By Brian Kahn

This week’s weather tug-of-war ends with a decisive win for spring as we head into the weekend. A large storm stretching from Louisiana to Michigan will wash over the eastern seaboard Friday, bringing rain and wind to Greater New York.

Wednesday night’s storm brought spring’s first lightning show, but Friday’s storm will bring drenching rains and winds. Expect April showers to develop from west to east on Thursday night and develop into April rain and downpours on Friday. Rain will be locally heavy at times in the late morning and early afternoon. Rainfall totals of an inch are possible across the region.

Greater New York can also expect gusty winds out of the east as this low pressure system moves into the region. Gusts over 30 mph are likely in Manhattan and points east.

Adding to Friday’s melange of dreary weather will be cooler temperatures as a cold front moves in overnight on Thursday. Highs will be in the low 50s in the southern half of the region. For points north in the Hudson River Valley, temperatures will be in the upper 40s.

The good news is the weekend isn’t ruined. Rain exits the region Friday night. Skies gradually clear through Sunday and temperatures eke up a few degrees. Though we won’t see the highs of midweek return, it should be warm enough on Saturday and Sunday to enjoy some fresh air with only a light jacket in tow. Inland temperatures might even reach 60 degrees. The northern Hudson River Valley has a chance for rain as a weak system comes through on Saturday but the odds aren’t too high.

The only detractor from the mild weekend weather will be persistent winds out of the west. They peak on Sunday afternoon with gusts over 20 mph before dying down Sunday night.

Central Plains Drought Explained, Sort Of; Sandy Retired

Thursday offered two pieces of climate news. The first was a new report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration about the causes of the “flash drought” that overtook the Central Plains in the spring and summer of 2012. Forecasters failed to predict drought, let alone what was the driest summer on record in the Plains. The rainfall deficit that beat out even the Dust Bowl coupled with extreme heat is estimated to have caused more than $12 billion in damage.

The failure to predict the drought was basically due to the fact that there was no single, big influence. The two most likely culprits, ocean temperatures and greenhouse gases, were minor players. The report tantalizingly notes that the U.S. might have been drying as a whole over the last 10 to 15 years. That could have increased the odds of drought, though it still doesn’t explain why this drought was so extreme.

The other major piece of climate news was the decision to retire the name Sandy from the tropical cyclone list. The World Meteorological Organization maintains lists of storm names for each of the ocean basins that experience tropical cyclones. For the Atlantic basin, there are six lists that rotate every year.

WMO only changes the names on the list if a storm is particularly deadly or costly. This is the second year in a row a storm that impacted New York has been retired, with Irene receiving the dubious distinction in 2011. Both Irene and Sandy are the only storm names in the Atlantic basin to have been retired the past two years.

The WMO has decided Sara will take Sandy’s place. Sara could make her first appearance in 2018 when that list comes back into use. That’s not an appearance many would look forward to, though.

Your Weather Journal weekend forecast roundup:

WSJ Headquarters in Manhattan:

High: Friday: 52, Saturday: 58, Sunday: 56

Low: Friday: 44, Saturday: 45, Sunday: 44

Weather: Rain amd wind Friday then gradually clearing through Sunday

Friday/Saturday/Sunday Highs for Greater New York:

Brooklyn: 51/56/54

Queens: 51/58/55

Bronx: 52/59/54

Staten Island: 51/57/54

Poughkeepsie, N.Y.: 57/54/58

Trenton, N.J.: 45/57/59

Islip, Long Island: 51/54/53

New Haven, Conn.: 46/56/53

Brian Kahn works at Columbia University at the International Research Institute for Climate and Society