by Susan Page, @susanpage, USA TODAY

by Susan Page, @susanpage, USA TODAY

STILLWATER, Minn. - Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker sparked explosive protests and survived a recall election during his first term when he slashed the state budget and tackled public-employee bargaining rights. Running for re-election in 2014, he hopes to strike a more conciliatory tone.

"It's not that I've changed position; I just don't need something that's going to bring 50-60-70-100,000 protesters in," he said in an interview with USA TODAY along the St. Croix River, which divides Wisconsin from Minnesota. While still "pushing big things," he says, "we need a little bit of that Kumbaya consensus in the state."

The firebrand governors who took statehouses by storm in 2010, when the Tea Party movement was surging, are running for second terms in 2014 with tempered messages and in a different political landscape.

Eight new GOP governors were elected in 2010 in states that had voted for Barack Obama two years earlier and would vote for him again two years later. (In all, triumphant Republicans carried 23 of the 37 gubernatorial races that year.) They won amid angst about high unemployment and fevered opposition to the Affordable Care Act Obama had signed that March. The same wave helped the GOP seize control of the House of Representatives in Washington.

Now these freshman Republican governors are expected to seek second terms in their solidly blue or battleground states: Florida, Maine, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

If they succeed, the consequences could be considerable. Amid Republican anguish over losing the past two presidential elections - and about losing ground among Hispanics, young people and other growing parts of the electorate - the governors could provide a blueprint for how to win, including in such quintessential swing states as Florida and Ohio.

Indeed, Walker is testing the waters for a potential presidential campaign himself in 2016.

This time around, the gubernatorial races will be more about effective governing and less about conservative ideology, says Democratic pollster Geoffrey Garin, a strategist for Democratic candidate Terry McAuliffe in Virginia's gubernatorial race this fall. "All of them have been scrambling to portray themselves as more centrist and more practical and less ideological, less Tea Party," he says.

For some, it's been a delicate balance to keep the faith with the small-government conservatives who boosted their first election while building support among more centrist voters for their re-election - and on no issue is the politics more perilous than over the nation's new health care law.

Maine Gov. Paul LePage, Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Corbett and Walker are sticking to their guns on Obamacare, refusing to participate in the law's expansion of Medicaid even though the federal government would pick up 100% of the additional cost initially and 90% later on. But Nevada Gov. Brian Sandoval and New Mexico Gov. Susana Martinez have signed on.

And in showdowns that underscore the complicated politics involved, the other three GOP governors support Medicaid expansion but are being blocked by Republicans in their state legislatures. The Florida Legislature rejected Gov. Rick Scott's plan to participate, then adjourned for the summer. In Ohio and Michigan, Gov. John Kasich and Gov. Rick Snyder are battling to reach last-minute deals before state legislative sessions end.

In an op-ed article this week in USA TODAY, Kasich cited conservative icon Ronald Reagan in pleading his case. "As the debate continues," he wrote, "I urge those who esteem Reagan to consider the principled, big-picture perspective at the core of his decisions."

THE ONE BLEMISH?

Wisconsin is refusing to participate in the Medicaid expansion program because Walker figures the federal government eventually will stick states with the bill, whatever promises are being made now. Then it would be impossible to withdraw, he says. "I haven't met a federal entitlement program the states are involved in that once you get in it, there's any way to get out of it."

Walker, vice chairman of the Republican Governors Association, warns it could be dangerous for governors who were elected with the help of Tea Party supporters to facilitate the law. After all, opposition to Obamacare drew many of those voters into politics.

"I think for the handful who have taken it, on other issues they've been very strong," he says. "If that was the one blemish in their minds, maybe alone it wouldn't (hurt), but if it's part of a series of things, quite possibly" it would.

Five of the eight governors have refused to go along with the other main pillar envisioned by the Affordable Care Act, the state-based insurance marketplaces. Under the law, Americans who aren't covered by insurance through their employers can use the exchanges to shop for insurance plans. People in those states will have to use a federal exchange instead. In Michigan, Snyder is creating a "partnership" exchange with Washington.

But Martinez and Sandoval are creating state exchanges in New Mexico and Nevada, in part reflecting the politics of their states. Their state legislatures are controlled by Democrats, making it more difficult for the governors to pursue as aggressively conservative an agenda as, say, Walker has done.

Similar forces propelled all eight governors into office, Walker says.

"Clearly, there was an overall sentiment in the country and state-by-state of frustration that government had grown out of control, particularly after the health care act and other things," he says. "For all of us who were elected for the first time in '10, running again in '14 - if we can show that things are markedly improved both economically and fiscally in our states, I think it's a pretty compelling case going forward."

Mike Tate, the Wisconsin Democratic chairman, predicts that Walker and the other governors will have a tougher time than they did last time. "2010 was a once-a-generation wave year for Republicans," he says. "It's very unlikely that next year is going to be a wave year for either party."

It's early to assess next year's elections, especially in states where the Democratic challengers aren't clear. At this point, ratings by the non-partisan Cook Political Report and by the University of Virginia Center for Politics "Crystal Ball" give them decidedly mixed prospects for re-election:

Both rate the gubernatorial races in Florida and Pennsylvania as tossups, the seats Democrats have the best chance of winning back. The UVA rankings, led by political scientist Larry Sabato, put Maine in the same category.

Both see the race in Ohio as a competitive one that now only "leans" Republican.

Michigan, New Mexico and Nevada are rated as leaning or likely Republican - that is, potentially competitive, but not the sort of challenge the incumbents face in the trio of tossup contests.

And the safest bet seems to be Walker, who already won what amounted to a second election in last year's recall battle. In 2010, he defeated Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett by 52%-47%. In their 2012 rematch, he widened his margin to 53%-46%. He was the third governor in U.S. history to face a recall, and the first to survive it.

Republican National Chairman Reince Priebus, who happens to be a former chairman of the Wisconsin GOP, says he expects to retain all eight governorships next year in victories that could help shape the party's direction.

"It certainly is the tale of two parties, that's for sure," Priebus says. "I mean, you've got a Republican Party that wins about everything on the table in the off-year, and then you've got a Republican Party that's got a lot of work to do when it comes to winning national presidential elections."

A BRIDGE CALLED 'COOPERATION'

On a rainy day, Walker has crossed the St. Croix River to join in the ceremonial groundbreaking on the Minnesota side for a $629 million bridge - a project decades in the making that took the political leadership in both states and from both parties to get done. The tone is bipartisan by speakers who range from conservative Republican Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota to liberal Democrat Sen. Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin.

"Probably the finest Minnesota-Wisconsin collaboration since Brett Favre," Bachmann declares to laughter, a reference to the retired All-Pro quarterback who played mostly for the Green Bay Packers and briefly for the Minnesota Vikings. Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar praises "my good friend Sean Duffy," acknowledging a Tea Party favorite in Congress who has been allies with the liberal senator on little else.

"The name of this bridge should simply be 'cooperation,' " Walker says when it comes his turn to speak. "Too often we don't see it in our state or our national capital."

Later, talking with a small group of reporters, he declines an invitation to take a swipe at Minnesota Gov. Mark Dayton, a Democrat, for a proposed $2 billion tax hike on tobacco and high earners. "Not today," Walker says, calling it a time for comity. Then he adds with a smile: "Tomorrow, the day after."

Walker has hardly shied from political battles, and the partisan divide in Wisconsin is fierce in the wake of the fight he led to curtail the rights of most public employees to collectively bargain. In a Marquette Law School Poll of Wisconsin voters taken last month, both Walker and Obama scored job-approval ratings of 51%. But Walker had the approval of 91% of Republicans and just 12% of Democrats. Obama had the approval of 92% of Democrats and just 9% of Republicans.

The standings of both men presumably have been boosted by a brightening economy. The national unemployment rate in April was 7.5%, down a bit from the 7.8% in January 2009, when Obama took office, and down considerably from a 10% high in October 2009.

In Wisconsin, the jobless rate is now 7.1%, down a bit from 7.4% in January 2011, when he took office. Even so, Walker isn't on track to meet his signature promise in 2010, to preside over the creation of 250,000 jobs in the state during his four-year term. After nearly 2Â½ years, only 62,000 jobs have been created.

He blames the disruption of the recall election and the uncertainty it created for small-business owners and other employers. "We lost about a year, a year and a half of time of really aggressive job growth because of their reaction and the recall," the governor says, sitting for an interview in a gazebo overlooking the river. "I hope things continue to pick up. The good news is that we're accelerating."

Walker, 45, shakes hands, stops for photos and gabs about his beloved Harley-Davidson motorcycle as he works the small crowd at the groundbreaking. He had just returned from a trip to address an annual Polk County COP dinner in Des Moines - one of those events favored by presidential hopefuls eyeing a run in the Iowa caucuses that will open the 2016 campaign.

He has a personal history in the Hawkeye State, he says, dismissing larger political considerations. "I lived from 1970 to 1977 in Plainfield, Iowa; my dad was the pastor at First Baptist Church there," he says. When asked to speak out of state, he says, "if I can fit it in my schedule after a day of work, I try and do it."