Philadelphia Eagles
@

Dallas Cowboys

Sun, Dec 9

1:25 PM Pacific

Game Analysis

Cowboys’ rookie linebacker Leighton Vander Esch is earning all the headlines lately, but Dallas should improve if Sean Lee is able to return this week. Vander Esch is recording an 11.6% run stop rate, which ranks 3rd among qualifying linebackers, and with Jaylon Smith in the top 20 as well, the Cowboys boast the league’s 3rd-best rush defense. However, stopping the pass is significantly more vital in the modern NFL and Vander Esch doesn’t possess the experience needed to effectively communicate in the passing game between the numbers. Even after a game full of miscues by the Saints last week, the Cowboys defense is still a full yard per play better with Lee in the lineup this season. Lee’s presence will be particularly vital in this matchup as the Eagles target tight ends on a league-high 36.4% of passes with Zach Ertz recording 145 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns against Dallas the first game after Lee was injured in week 9.

Another understated hero for the Cowboys is also in question with Tyron Smith nursing a neck injury. The 5-time Pro Bowl left tackle has yet to concede a sack this season and will be needed against Michael Bennett and Brandon Graham, who both rank top 20 in pass rushing efficiency. The Eagles banged-up secondary won’t be as glaring of an issue versus this ground-and-pound Cowboys offense and I expect Philadelphia’s 11th-rated rush defense to do a better job limiting Ezekiel Elliott after he ran for 151 yards in the first meeting.

Our model favors Dallas by just 2.1-points but that might change depending on injury updates on Lee and Smith. Regardless, the defending champs qualify in a 74-22-2 ATS road underdog same-season revenge situation.