China's New Space Exploration Vision Shoots for the Moon

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There is no doubt that China is on the move in space — including
the country's own human spaceflight missions to Earth orbit — and
at a time when NASA's own budget and big space decisions remain
in the to-be-determined column.

Last November, China accomplished its first unpiloted space
rendezvous and docking test between the country's Tiangong 1
space lab module and a Shenzhou 8 spaceship. Follow-up flights to
the space lab by crewed spacecraft are on the books, all in
preparation for China to develop a larger space station in the
near future — a major space project that could serve as a testing
ground for human treks to the moon.

The country also recently unveiled its blueprint for future space
exploration in a white paper entitled " China's
Space Activities in 2011," which was released in late
December by China's Information Office of the State Council. In
addition to taking a detailed look at China's space achievements
to date, the report offers a glimpse into where the spacefaring
nation appears to be headed.

China is the third country, after Russia and the United States,
to achieve human spaceflight. The country has launched three
crewed spaceflights, each more ambitious than the last, since
2003. In the new white paper, major future goals include plans
for a robust space transportation system, Earth satellites, human
spaceflights and deep-space exploration. [ Photos
From China's 1st Space Docking Mission ]

SPACE.com asked several China space program watchers to chime in
on what they see in the report ... and what they read as
between-the-lines intimation in the document:

China's space economy

"I found this report the least clunky and bureaucratic of the
Chinese space white papers that have been issued," said Joan
Johnson-Freese, professor of national security studies at the
Naval War College in Newport, R.I. "It provides relatively
straightforward information that doesn’t require translation by a
Sinologist, and an impressive list of accomplishments and goals."

The national security specialist said that in reading the
document, she was struck by several points.

Firstly, "economic development" remains the umbrella rationale
for
space development in China, she said. The spectrum covered by
that umbrella ranges from the very fungible increasing of Chinese
“innovative capabilities” to the very practical "industry
development."

"The report includes an impressive list of accomplishments,
impressive as much for the political will for success
demonstrated as the technical achievements," Johnson-Freese said.
Furthermore, the document notes that "guaranteed funding" through
"multiple funding streams" is a goal, she added.

"The Chinese do an excellent job in learning from others and I
think they do not want to see themselves in NASA's position of
having lots of good ideas, but more rhetorical political support
than actual funding to follow through on those ideas,"
Johnson-Freese said.

Humans on the moon

Under tasks, China's No. 1 priority is getting their heavy-lift
Long March 5 rocket operational, Johnson-Freese noted. "Until
that is done, all the other big plans will be on hold."

Task No. 3, China says, is to "conduct studies on the preliminary
plan for a human lunar landing."

"This acknowledges the eventual intent to put a human on the moon
… something most Americans have long assumed already officially
approved and in the works," Johnson-Freese said.

Also in the document, the Chinese provide an extensive list of
international cooperation partners, with positive mention made of
working with NASA, "though they are acutely aware of
Congressional roadblocks in place to stifle any U.S.-Sino
Cooperation," Johnson-Freese added.

"Overall, this is a report they can, and I'm sure they do,
rightly take pride in. It also tacitly points out the need for
NASA to move forward with the
Space Launch System. China is not doing anything the U.S,
couldn't or hasn't done, but space development appears more
important to China now than it is to the U.S.," Johnson-Freese
concluded. "The Chinese emphasis on space for innovation and
economic development ought to resonate as much in the U.S. as it
does in China."

China's space method

According to space analyst Marcia Smith, the president of the
Space and Technology Policy Group, LLC in Arlington, Va., and
founder and editor of the highly informative
SpacePolicyOnline.com, there were few surprises in the latest
white paper.

"I don't see that the Chinese are announcing anything that we
haven't heard about already… part of their steady, methodical
approach to space exploration and utilization," Smith said.

Smith said that, as for sending people to the moon, all the
report says is: 'China will conduct studies on the preliminary
plan for a human lunar landing. "No news there," she added.

Smith has written an
extensive review of the white paper at SpacePolicyOnline.com.
In that appraisal, she said that "China issued such white papers
in 2000 and 2006, and the 2011 version offers little that is
new."

According to Steve Eisenhart, senior vice president of the Space
Foundation in Colorado Springs, Colo., is a recent visitor to
China, where he met with officials from the China Space Agency
and Chinese space industry leaders.

"What is said in the plan is consistent with what we have heard
and seen in all of our interaction with the Chinese," Eisenhart
told SPACE.com. "They have a plan, and seem intent on executing
it. From a purely Space Foundation perspective, we are happy to
see the inclusion of engagement with nongovernmental
organizations."

Technological autonomy

Dean Cheng, a research fellow on Chinese political and security
affairs at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative public policy
think tank in Washington, D.C., also offered his thoughts to
SPACE.com on the white paper.

Cheng said he found it interesting to read the space document in
conjunction with the speech that China's President Hu Jintao
recently gave to representatives of the All-Army Military
Equipment Development Commission.

In that talk, Hu complimented them on their achievements in the
last Five Year Plan, telling them that this would be the starting
point for the new 12th Five Year Plan. As the Chinese space
program is under the effective control of the People's Liberation
Army, Hu's speech is arguably in line with the space white paper,
Cheng said.

"Note, too, that the second hallmark, after 'scientific
development,' which is a Hu Jintao catchphrase, is independent
development. This would seem to reinforce the importance of
Chinese technological autonomy and 'autonomous innovation' or
'indigenous innovation,' another Hu hallmark and ideological
legacy," Cheng explained, something that is again reiterated in
"innovative development."

"I think those who foresee a whole lot of international
programmatic development with the People's Republic of China will
be disappointed. China may cooperate with others, but not in
technology development," Cheng said.

In the document, the repeated references to high resolution
Earth-observation satellites raises the question, Cheng said, of
whether China is interested in developing sub-meter resolution
spy satellites … and if so, whether it will also makes them
commercial systems, competing against
U.S. commercial imaging satellites and others.

Cheng noted that there are extended references in the white paper
to satellite applications.

"Past Chinese economic analyses have noted that the money lies in
satellite applications, and there's no reason to think the
Chinese will miss out on that, if at all possible," Cheng said.

Direct TV, Beidou handsets for China's version of the GPS, etc.,
are all mentioned, Cheng added, "and this is consistent with past
Chinese discussions of needing to expand their commercial
presence in this area."

In the human spaceflight arena, Cheng said, "we now have a
formal, official statement of interest in a
manned lunar mission. This is huge, since the white paper
reflects governmental buy-in from the entire system."

On the whole, Cheng said that he doesn’t think the document
offers too many surprises.

"It is a reminder, though, that the Chinese link their space
development efforts — among other things — to their five-year
plans, hence the issuance of these white papers every five
years,” Cheng said.

For a look at the expansive white paper "China's Space Activities
in 2011"
visit this link.

Leonard David has been reporting on the space industry
for more than five decades. He is a winner of last year's
National Space Club Press Award and a past editor-in-chief of the
National Space Society's Ad Astra and Space World magazines. He
has written for SPACE.com since 1999.