Primary elections attract far more voters than last night's caucuses in Iowa, where party activists dominate. For Republicans, that means evangelical Christians. For Democrats, it is union members and older voters.

The concerns of New Hampshire voters are believed to offer a broader reflection of America. The state motto on car licence plates reads "Live free or die", which gives one indication of its citizens' preoccupations: taxes.

Republican candidates are likely to tone down the talk about moral values, aimed to appeal to evangelical voters. That could bode badly for Mike Huckabee, the former Baptist preacher.

"New Hampshire voters are more live and let live when it comes to people's private lives," said Thomas Mann, of the Brookings Institution, who studies elections. Instead, the big issue for Republican voters will be government spending and tax cuts. That could play well for Mitt Romney, the former executive.

Republican candidates are also likely to tone down the rhetoric on the "war on terror", and tiptoe even further away from George Bush's policies on Iraq.

For Democrats, the shift is less stark. Iowa favoured the anti-corporate message of John Edwards. That may not play so well in a state where many people commute to work in Boston. But the collapse of the housing market and the economic downturn are likely to be high on voters' lists of concerns.

Anti-war feeling also runs stronger in New Hampshire than in Iowa, where healthcare and education were dominant issues. That could boost Barack Obama, because of his early opposition to the US invasion.