The case for Kevin Durant

Let it be known right up front: LeBron James is the MVP. He will win and should win, the Maurice Podoloff Trophy. End of discussion, end of story, end of debate. Well, I guess not end of discussion because I’m going to try and start one. (Or I guess you could look at this as a case for why Kevin Durant should finish as the runner-up. Either way.)

Regardless of LeBron’s fantastic year, it is my duty as a Thunder fan, and even more importantly as Kevin Durant fan, to make a strong case for him as this year’s Most Valuable Player. And honestly, I won’t have to try that hard to make one. Because KD’s resume is pretty darn strong. In a word for the 21-year-old’s season, he’s been outstanding.

First, the most straightforward fact: KD has led an incredible, unbelievable, improbable turnaround for the Thunder. As it stands today, the team has gone from 23 wins, to 49 in a season. The Celtics tied the record for greatest single season turnaround in 2008 with a 36-win improvement. But that was with blowing up the roster, adding two Hall of Famers and starting fresh. Oklahoma City sits with a chance for a 27 or 28 game increase with virtually the exact same roster. Added was three rookies and two veterans that never play. To me, that’s the strongest part of Durant’s case.

He’s elevated a young team – the youngest in fact – to the playoffs. He’s taken his team to a higher place. It’s what the great players do. As Durant has rapidly improved, so has his team. No player’s direct improvement has so greatly affected his team. Russell Westbrook might have a better case than Durant for Most Improved, but because of KD’s commitment to the defensive end, along with shouldering the load as the primary rebounder and scorer, he’s been Reason No. 1 for OKC’s unexpected rise. Consider this: Last year, KD’s adjusted plus/minus was -8.62. This year? He’s skyrocketed to a +17.58. Yep, that’s the biggest improvement in the league and a 26.2-point swing. Heavens.

Obviously there’s the argument of “If you took LeBron off the Cavs, where would they be?” They wouldn’t be that great. LeBron does it all for Cleveland. But in the same respect, so does Durant. If you subtracted KD from the Thunder, this team would maybe be sitting in the 20s. Russell Westbrook would still be answering questions about whether or not he was a point guard, Scott Brooks might be on the hot seat and Sam Presti’s genius status might be taking a hit. Jeff Green probably wouldn’t have had two open looks at 3 against Boston last week because KD required so much attention. So that argument surely works two ways. LeBron was good last year and his team was good. But KD’s team stunk. They’ve won more games THIS YEAR than they have Durant’s previous two seasons. So like I said, Durant’s team has made an incredible rise in the standings and the direct relation to that has been because of him.

But the reality is, that doesn’t matter that much to people. What matters is that LeBron scores AND creates. It’s what separates him from everybody. He’s a point guard wrapped in a linebacker’s body. Most label Durant as a scorer only. And it’s true – KD isn’t near the creator and distributor LeBron is. But a lot of that is because Durant doesn’t have to be. He has a team built around him that’s made for KD to score. Westbrook creates. Durant scores. It’s a simple formula. But that doesn’t mean Durant isn’t as valuable to the Thunder as LeBron is to the Cavs. We all know KD isn’t “just a scorer” as some blowhards like to say. He rebounds, he defends, he scores, he creates, he helps teammates get looks and he leads. No team loves each other as much as the Thunder and that comes directly from Durant. He sets the tone and the example and his mates walk in step behind him.

How valuable is KD to this team? The best way I thought I could summarize it was with this crude, likely disagreeable graph.

Durant is the centerpiece. He’s the middle. Everyone has their role on this team, but he’s THE scorer, THE rebounder and has become a better-than-good-but-not-great defensive player. The mark to qualify yourself for MVP candidacy is 50 wins and OKC has a legit shot at that. The Thunder needs just one more win for 50. And besides that, OKC battled for the Northwest Division title all season which happens to be the toughest division in basketball and will finish the season just three or four games out of second in the West. If that doesn’t qualify you for MVP candidacy, then, well, insert some kind of slightly witty quip here to illustrate that truth.

The other top MVP candidates find the middle hole in the Venn Diagram too. LeBron is his team’s best defender, leading scoring and leading rebounder. Dwight Howard scores, rebounds and defends. And Kevin Durant is everything to his team. He’s the leading rebounder, leading scorer, leading stealer, second in blocks, third in assists and leads the team in minutes played. His PER is a strong 26.17 which is third in the league and a six-point improvement from last year. He’s become a well-rounded small forward and he’s not close to his ceiling as a player yet.

A few other stats: He leads the league in 30-10 games with 17. He’s had 25 double-doubles this year. He’s averaging 30.1 points per game, which again leads the league. He’s averaging 7.6 rebounds a game, which puts him in the top 30. He’s had seven 40-point games and had scored 45 three times this year. He’s even averaging a full block a game this year. And he’s led the Thunder in scoring 73 times this year out of 80 games. He’s scored 25 points or more 71 times this year, which is the most since Michael Jordan did it 76 times in 1987-88. He’s shooting 47.5 percent from the floor, 36 percent from 3 and 89.8 percent from the stripe for a true shooting percentage of 60.5 percent which is flat out amazing. I could go on and on and on but know this: He’s been awesome.

I wish I was a better writer/basketball mind to really make a great case of Kevin Durant. Because he deserves serious consideration. It’s a foregone conclusion that LeBron will win, but if KD doesn’t at least come in a semi-close second, I’ll be upset. He’s meant absolutely everything to his team, he leads the league in scoring and because of his commitment over the summer to get stronger and become a better defender, he has his group on the cusp of 50 wins. His value to the Thunder is really immeasurable. Without him, who knows what things would look like. Not just on the scoreboard, but the chemistry in the locker room, the culture of the team and the overall togetherness these guys have bonded. Durant leads the way on all of that and without him, I don’t know if we’d feel so great about things.

Again, Durant isn’t winning this award. LeBron James is the best player on the best team. It’s an obvious choice. But at the age of 21 and in his third year, Kevin Durant has made The Leap. He’s in the discussion for MVP and we all know this isn’t the first time this will happen. Actually, I expect to be having this conversation for 10 or 12 more straight years.

The lines are similar - however Westbrook + Harden play 57 mins per game and Lebron is averaging 39 mpg. So with 18 more mpg the 2 players manage 3 less points, less than 1 more rebound and barely more than 1 assist per game. Over the course of the season they'd score 240 total points more than LBJ combined, in 1.5x the minutes.

I would just like to say, as a Cavs fan, the post earlier about Durant being more valuable because LeBron's "team" is better might be the greatest thing I've ever seen written. Just from years of having to read, "LeBron's got no help, blah, blah, blah." At least someone recognizes the team is better.

Anyway, just wanted to say that. As for the Thunder, can't wait to see you guys in the playoffs. I love watching your team and hope they can pull off an upset... or three.

LBJ can win five MVP from now on,He is like Neo in Matrix.But KD Howard and Kobe without injure have little chance to win him.Kobe have some great games this season,but his fingle stop him.I hope he can join USA team this summer and KD can learn much from him.I still think KD is similar with him but no LBJ

Anyone that doesn't see multiple statistical "abberation" type seasons in KD's future is forgetting how young he is and how rapidly he's improving. As he gets stronger and quicker, his 10-12 FT attempts per game are going to skyrocket. In future years, it's going to come down to what's more valuable, LBJ's 30-7-7-2-1 average or KD's 35-10-4-2-2 statline. And I'm fairly confident, injuries notwithstanding, that won't be the best season KD puts up.

Anyway - I just don't won't anyone to get hurt tonight. As far as I'm concerned we can play the bench - we're in the playoffs and no matter who we play its going to be tough cause everyone turns it up a notch for the playoffs.

How about since this award is named the most "valuable" award, we give it to the player who's team gets the most bang for the buck, so to speak. KD made about 4.8 mill this year, LeBron, about 15.8 mill.

The one flaw I usually see in the "most valuable to their team" argument is that people want to take those players off the teams completely. "Cleveland minus LeBron is a 40 win team at best" etc...

What I think is a better argument (but still not a good argument) is swapping those two players. OKC may win 30 games without KD. They will win 50 or so with KD. They would also win 50 games with LeBron. In fact, swap LeBron and KD, and the Cavs are probably about where they are right now. Win shares are the stat that is supposed to speak to this. I still don't think that line of reasoning is perfect, because those teams are built around KD's and LeBron's specific talent set and would have some serious adjusting to do. But the general idea is better than removing those players entirely.

We will have to be on TV a whole lot more if KD is going to actually come close to Lebron in the vote. Media look at numbers, but they have SEEN Lebron, and get to see him regularly. KD ... not so much. Hopefully he rips Memphis on Wednesday (I'll be cheering from Sec 108) and gets even more media attention. If he wants to surpass Lebron, or even come close in the media vote, we need to get on TV ALOT MORE! And he needs to become more agressive in his pursuit of media opportunities. Like or not, politics are involved in all of the awards.

Last season, starting (notably) with the Rookie-Sophomore game, Kevin Durant started giving people a glimpse of what he was going to look like next season. He was playing great already, but we saw him rise to a completely new level during the course of the season--a level which became his standard this year.

It seems like the last couple weeks could be this season's indication of what to expect from KD in the coming season or two. Look at his averages over the last 7:

38.3 PTS9.3 REB3.8 AST2.0 STL1.8 BLK3.0 3PM2.0 TO

The Thunder are scrapping for playoff position, so he's having to play harder and more minutes (42) than he has all year, but this shows you what kind of stretches he's capable of. I'd think such stretches will become much more common in the coming years.

If he gets close to averaging numbers like this over a season, he'll get his throne right next to LeBron's and will absolutely begin stealing MVP trophies from "Chosen1."

It seems to me like this will become the rivalry to watch for the next 5-10 years.

Agreed completely on the block issues. Almost all of Lebron's blocks come from help side defense or chasing players down on fast breaks. I'm confused why the media makes him out to be a Josh Smith type shot blocker.

I would love to see Ibaka at PF, and Jeff Green coming off the bench. If Serge keeps developing his game, we wouldn't even need a truly dominant center, just one who can protect the paint and score when necessary.

I think it's unfair to use stats to credit Lebron on his greatness. I'm in no way suggesting that he isn't an incredible player, but he practically runs point for that team. He's involved in almost every single play for the Cavs, even more than Durant is. As a result, he's going to see more chances for assists. Compare Russ's Pts/Reb/Assists to Lebron's, and it's not all that far off. However, nobody claims Russ is almost as good as Lebron (And rightfully so). Stats are a poor measure of skill, because there are a ton of other factors to consider. namely usage.

I'm not a stats person as much as justin or some other posters are, but this is just what I was thinking with respect to the box score stats.

Points: Hard to say. Lebron can score any time he wants, but I think KD is more of a pure scorer, and has more offensive weapons than Lebron. I'll give the slight edge to KD for this one, especially since it's still possible for him to improve his efficiency as he works on his post game more, and he doesn't need to dominate the ball as much to get his.

Assists: Since KD will probably never be the playmaker that Lebron is, the best we can hope for is that KD makes about 4-5 APG, especially if OKC gets better around him and better teammates. Lebron wins this one easily though.

Rebounds:Right now, Durant rebounds more. Barely. Also a function of his getting so much playing time. Good news is, we're seeing improvement on this front. 'Bad' news is, if we do end up getting a strong presence in the paint at some point, Durant's rebounds will probably end up going down. Lebron hasn't played with a truly dominant paint player either though, which partially explains why he gets so many rebounds. No, Shaq doesn't really count. Deadlock, slight edge to KD.

Blocks: Lebron's shot-blocking is overrated; he has about the number of blocked shots as Durant, yet the media makes him out to be some kind of Howard-esque block machine. We're already seeing KD's improvement on this front, hopefully he can increase his BPG, but he may not. Deadlock.

As it stands right now, the one area where Lebron truly dominates KD is in his playmaking. The rest of the statistical categories are fairly even, and I'm projecting KD to even increase those per-game stats. THey won't be enough on their own though, which is why I think KD's best bet of overcoming Lebron will be to seriously increase his level of defense. With his physical tools, KD could be one of the best perimeter defenders in the league..I'm hoping that when he goes to the Olympics/World Championships, Kobe will be there to teach him a thing or two. Love him or hate him, Kobe's defense is still amazing when he wants it, and it rubs off; Lebron even credited his defensive rise to playing and training with Kobe on the Redeem Team.

@girlballeryeah the unfortunate thing is precedent is for the best player, so KD has no chance.

@justinkevin garnett came into the league at 220 lbs as a PF, so durant could easily be a PF if he gained another 10-20 lbs. However unless we end up with a SF that paired with KD at PF is better then KD at SF and green/ibaka/FA at PF then i dont see us sliding him up.

I tend to agree with @f5alcon. Most "valuable" to his team (and really the league), THIS season is KD35 hands down in my (okay maybe a "smidge" biased) opinion! Scoring title anyone? If any of you think we would be sitting on right at 50 wins, and playoffs to boot, WITHOUT KD35 you are certifiable, and I mean that in the nicest way possible.

In the East, the Cavs have a better than 50/50 shot at the playoffs even without "King" James. By my thinking, that is most valuable in it's very definition. Heck, I think they should post a nice 8 x 10 glossy of Mr. Durant next to the definition of MVP in the Oxford English Dictionary!! Now this does NOT mean that I think KD could beat LBJ in a game of one-on-one, but I'll take his side in a game of H-O-R-S-E anyday and twice on Sundays!

As for Nash, Dirk, Kobe, Duncan, etc.... I really don't think being the best player on your team, however great you are, gets you the MVP. You have to be the "difference maker". KD is the NBA season 2010 "difference MAKER." He has ignited the entire league this season, the buzz is palpable, if that doesn't get you the MVP (along with that scoring title I might add....) then I don't really know how they are deciding.

@justinyeah, i really dont expect it to happen like that, at some point lebron will get hurt and miss half a season or something and KD will win. I think the assists and steals will be the hardest, his assists will go up as the team around him improves, but maybe not that high, next year he will be above 3, hopefully close to 4.

His blocks improved the 2nd half of this season so i think there is some improvement for next year.(7 games in the 1st half of the season with 2 or more blocks, 14 in the 2nd half)

16 games with 8 or more rebs first half of the season, 23 2nd half, so a healthy improvement there.

steals were 14 games of 2 or more first half and 16 games 2nd half, so basically no change.

turnovers, first half 17 games with 3 or fewer, 2nd half 30. So he is turning over a lot less now.

He'll need to eat more than a few cheeseburgers to get to play PF. He'll need to pack on quite a few pounds, which at age 21, I know I was more than capable of. Hopefully he can too. He's long and lanky, so hopefully his frame will accept the added bulk he'd need. Maybe he needs my freshman year of college diet: fried everything, mashed potatoes and ice cream. I wish I could go back in time and whip freshman-me's ass.

Since the award is voted on by a bunch of the media, the mere fact that LBJ is a quotable, affable, media-attention seeker will work in his favor. If LBJ was on this team, you wouldn't see Jeff or Nick or Russ doing the pregame interview.

Yes, that's really the only way. I don't think Durant has a shot at being an elite playmaker, but he has the tools to be an elite defender if he wants to be. That's where he can potentially improve the most still.

I've said it before, but if he moves to PF eventually and cracks or gets close to 10 rebounds a game he'll have a very good chance. 30-10 seasons are rare.

If KD can:*increase his A:TO ratio to the 1.25-1.50 range*have an All-Defensive Team year*bump his block numbers up to 1.5-1.75 to have some flashy stats to go along with the defense award

I think he would have a real argument provided everything else stays about the same (TS%, PPG, Rebounding, Steals, 3s, etc.)

The main problems are his turnovers and Lebron's ridiculous levels of dominance, both on the court and general notoriety. As long as Lebron stays healthy and keeps up this level of production, it's hard to really see anyone else winning the MVP legitimately. But with a season like that described above, KD would be a clear cut, far and away number two and would deserve a spot in the discussion + a healthy number of votes.

I would argue that Russ is closer to the middle than KD. Afterall, Russ is one of the leading PGs at rebounding. I'm not so sure that Durant belongs in the defense part quite yet.

I do think that KD is much better at offense and rebounding overall than Russ, and that he is the most imporant part of the team though. And I agree that he should be #2 in voting even though Kobe will probably get it.

It's a cold day in hell but I agree with justin about KD having "a long way" to go to reach Lebron's level

Statistically, you can definitely argue KD is in Lebron's class and that for the first 36 minutes (first 3 quarters) of games KD is as dominant scorer as there is, but the game is not played on paper.

What stat sheets cannot document is the gap between KD and Lebron in terms of impact. Every game cleveland plays, the entire energy and momentum of those games are dictated by Lebron. The entire game revolves around him and his presence/energy. He is the tempo/energy/momentum that determines the direction of all the games he plays in.

That is not the case with KD, even when he's having one of his hot nights a lot of the time.

I think KD would trade an MVP, scoring title, first team all NBA whatever, and whatever other accoldades anyone could give him for a little gold ball and being able to say he is / was a champion. He seems like that type a guy to me. Lebron ... maybe. I think he'd like his cake and to eat it too .. he just might have the talent to do both.

If we had a sharp shooter (I know Harden can be that, but is he right now?) and the offense was a bit different, I could see KD getting some more assists. He'd have to be willing to drive it to the bucket a bit more, which means he'll need to down a few dozen cheeseburgers and put some more meat on his bones.

JAX - totally agree. The MVP debate is dumb. It's been decided since before the Allstar break. Lebron deserves it. Everyone else is a distant second.

Data driven Venn Diagrams are difficult to create, especially given three intersecting entities. You could go with a series of scatter charts instead, but that would just point out what we all already know, that KD is the best player on this team, and that claim can be backed up with statistics.

MVP is about to wear me thin. I've heard it being discussed since November. It's basically turned into a time filler subject for networks.

LeBron's year this year and last year statistically are up there with the best from Jordan and Wilt. There's more to the game than stats and defense is always difficult to quantify but the gap between LeBron / everyone else is just so huge I don't know how anyone overcomes it as long as he's putting up these kind of seasons.

He's going to have to become elite at something besides scoring to have a shot at dethroning LeBron, or we're going to have to win 60+ games and seriously contend (like Karl Malone when he won it when Jordan deserved it).

The fact that Kevin Durant is having a historic scoring year, and LeBron is only slightly behind him in that respect on top of his huge advantage as a facilitator, is amazing.

LeBron is going to win MVP's until we get tired of giving them to him. There isn't an argument for Durant over LeBron this year. Durant has more turnovers than assists this year. He's got a long way to go to be in LeBron's league...