friday night brief

2017-9-30

Good evening.

It is 2:34 in Pyongyang, and 11PM in Seattle. I hope everyone reading this is having a reasonably pleasant and peacefilled night with family and friends. I spent the bulk of the evening at a church gathering celebrating some religious study accomplishments. I hope that this kind of evening with friends and social groups can be enjoyed both in the US and the DPRK by ordinary people for many years to come.

On to the news, the more reliable & sophisticated sources....

North Korean Foreign Minister Ri has a profile on him by Reuters. An astute politician well read and well rehearsed in Western thinking. It would be interesting to read a memoir written by him freely and uncensored.http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201709290041.html

A commentator suggests to watch actions, rather than words, in the consideration of whether war will occur. That is why I have focused on specific verifiable actions in this blog, along with attempting to understand Twitter influencers. The commentator in Defense One here notes that with Tillerson going to China (and Trump planning an Asia dog n pony show), diplomacy is proceeding. The big question, according to the commentator, is if a miscalculation occurs and guns start going off. This is, by the way, one strategic reason the Moscow-DC Hot Line was installed, to ensure fast communication to correct misunderstanding.http://www.defenseone.com/threats/2017/09/how-tell-if-north-korea-and-america-are-actually-headed-war/141355/

US Pacific Command notes on Twitter that South Korean, Japanese, and US leaders met to discuss defence strategies. This is intended, at the least, to demonstrate to the world that those are the three major allies of the US in the region.

The NY Times reports South Korea is preparing pre-emptive strike systems, a missile defence system, and a strike force against the NK leadership.

A commentator notes that we had best accept a nuclear NK and heavily implies we had best focus on diplomacy if we're not interested in a utterly bloody war.

Unsubstantiated reports claim DPRK is shifting missiles, likely in preparation for another test.

A survey of twitter suggests that an array of accounts want to send liberals to north korea as punishment. Likely, these accounts are bots... Other accounts claim to not understand how nuance and interests work - "empathizing with NoKo" has become wrong. It's a good idea to get into the head of your adversary, whether in war or diplomatic negotiation. My question: how many of these are Gen-ew-uine American Warhawks, and how many of these are bots. Some definitely are bots. Who benefits from nuclear war, that is my question... Russia? An America wound up to full xenophobia on a 100% war footing is not a pleasant sight for a Great Power to consider. Russia has been recently exposed as attempting to deliver divisive messages to the US populace. Worth considering - who benefits?

In summary: might be another missile test coming up. Trump's not really being a great diplomat (still/again), and there's a large array of screaming twitter accounts lusting for war.