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Staying or going?

Which commissioners are likely to get a second chance – and which will not – in the next European Commission?

European Voice

10/1/08, 5:00 PM CET

Updated 4/23/14, 8:49 PM CET

If European Commission President José Manuel Barroso is to obtain his wish to serve a second term, he needs to keep on good terms with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi to consolidate the public support he has already won from French President Nicolas Sarkozy and the tacit approval of UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown. But even if Barroso’s mandate is renewed, only a handful of the current commissioners are expected to stay on.

Definitely out

Günter Verheugen, the industry commissioner, has already announced that he will be leaving politics at the end of the commission. Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrat Union wants the post for one of their party, with Peter Hintze, a state secretary in the economics ministry, a strong contender. Margot Wallström, the communication commis-sioner, a Swedish Social Democrat, is likely to be replaced by a politician from the centre-right government coalition. Cecilia Malmström, a former MEP who is currently Sweden’s Europe minister, is a possible candidate.

Sarkozy is expected to replace Jacques Barrot, the justice and home affairs commissioner, with a more heavyweight figure in a bid to secure one of the major economic portfolios such as competition (although the UK and Germany might resist this for fear of seeing an erosion of the Commission’s commitment to open markets). Putting forward Jean-Pierre Jouyet, France’s secretary of state for EU affairs (he was head of cabinet to Jacques Delors), might strengthen Sarkozy’s chances of getting the post he desires.

Berlusconi is expected to keep Antonio Tajani, the transport commissioner, who took over when Franco Frattini was summoned back to Rome in May to become Italy’s foreign minister.

Would-be stayers

Then there are the commissioners who would like to stay. These include the Estonian Siim Kallas, the administration, audit and anti-fraud commissioner, and Stavros Dimas, the environment commissioner. Dimas, a Greek, is keen on a possible new portfolio responsible for climate change, which would be a heavyweight post because of the economic impact on policies and its importance for energy, industrial and transport policy.

Viviane Reding, the information society and media commissioner, hopes to stay for a third term provided that the Christian Social People’s party of Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker wins next June’s general elections. If she stays though, Reding is likely to change portfolio.

Androula Vassiliou, the health commissioner, would like to serve a full term, since she took up her post only last April, to replace Markos Kyprianou when he went back to Cyprus as foreign minister. Neelie Kroes, the competition commissioner, would like to stay on for another term – but her party, the VVD, is no longer in the Dutch government. Finland’s Olli Rehn, the enlargement commissioner, would also like to stay on, and has the advantage that his party, the Centre party which governs in coalition, does not face re-election until 2011.

László Kovács, the tax commissioner, would welcome a second term, perhaps with a less frustrating portfolio than he has now. Kovács is a Socialist, like Hungary’s Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsány, but the Socialists are a minority in Parliament so their grip on power is fragile. Budget Commissioner Dalia Grybauskaite?’s chances of a second term depend heavily on the outcome of elections in Lithuania on 12 October.

Fisheries and Maritime Affairs Commissioner Joe Borg is of the ruling Nationalist Party in Malta, which improves his chances, and he is under-stood to be interested in staying on, too.

Bulgaria’s Meglena Kuneva belongs to the National Movement Simeon II party, which is part of the governing coalition. Despite only taking office in January 2007, she has achieved a high profile with the consumer protection portfolio, which may improve her chances of staying on. The same cannot be said for Romania’s Leonard Orban, the commissioner for multilingualism.

The commissioners who are probably leaving include Spain’s Joaquín Almunia, the economic and monetary affairs commissioner, and Austria’s Benita Ferrero-Waldner, the external relations commissioner – following the change of chancellor in Vienna and the competition for the Brussels post among Austrian politicians, not least former chancellor Wolfgang Schüssel.

Likely leavers

The commissioners who are most likely to leave – whether they want to or not – are the victims of changes in national politics since they were appointed. For example, Poland’s Danuta Hübner, the regional policy commissioner, will be replaced by someone from Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s Civic Platform party. Czech Socialist Vladimír Špidla is unlikely to be renominated by centre-right Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek. Slovakia’s Ján Figel’, the education commissioner, is from the same party as former prime minister Mikuláš Dzurinda and is unlikely to get support from centre-left Prime Minister Robert Fico. Peter Mandelson, the trade commissioner, has said he does not expect Gordon Brown to offer him a second term and Mariann Fischer Boel, the agriculture commissioner is not expecting the Danish government to renew her mandate. Slovenia’s Janez Potoc?nik, the science and research commissioner, expects to leave Brussels next year, as does Andris Piebalgs, the energy commissioner, of Latvia.

Charlie McCreevy, the internal market commissioner, who did not want to come to Brussels in the first place, expects to serve just the one term, and the names of possible Irish successors such as Transport Minister Noel Dempsey are already circulating.

Development Commissioner Louis Michel’s successor is almost certain to be Foreign Minister Karel de Gucht as Belgium’s European commissioner rotates from a francophone liberal to a Flemish.

Who gets which portfolio in the next Commission depends on the next president, based on the calibre of candidate commissioners that EU governments offer him. Should it be Barroso, his verdict on who has performed well in his first term will be revealed only once he distributes new portfolios, when it will become clear who of the current Commission are given heavyweight dossiers in the next term.