Continuing Senators (Elected 2001)

(*) Casual Vacancies

Shayne Murphy resigned from the Labor Party in October 2001. Guy Barnett was appointed to replace Brian Gibson in March 2002.

(+) Retiring Senators

Senator Brian Harradine has announced he will not be contesting the 2004 election. He is currently the longest serving Senator, having first been elected in 1975. Senator Kay Denman will also be retiring. While not contesting the election, the terms of both Senators will continue until 30 June 2005.

Assessment

While a lot of debate has been around whether Christine Milne will win a seat for the Greens, she looks certain to be the fifth elected. Certain to be the first four Senators elected are Labor's Senator Kerry O'Brien and new candidate Helen Polley, along with sitting Liberal Senators Eric Abetz and Guy Barnett. The question is really who will win the final spot, Labor's state secretary David Price or Liberal Stephen Parry? Sitting Independent Senator Shayne Murphy, who resigned from the Labor Party after the 1998 election, looks set for defeat.
The biggest unknown is, with Brian Harradine's retirement, where will his supporters go? He has a strong moral conservative base, but many of his votes also come from the Labor side of politics given his union background. At the 1998 election, his vote was drawn heavily from voters who in the lower house cast their ballots for sitting Labor MPs. You would expect there to be less vote splitting with his retirement, and with Labor likely to have the higher primary vote in the state, Labor probably has the better chance of winning the final spot.

2001 Result

Party group

Votes

%

Swing

Quotas

Liberal Party (3 elected)

119,720

38.79

+4.97

2.72

Labor Party (2 elected)

113,709

36.84

-4.79

2.58

The Greens (1 elected)

42,568

13.79

+7.98

0.97

Australian Democrats

14,273

4.62

+0.70

0.32

Pauline Hanson's One Nation

10,169

3.29

-0.48

0.23

Tasmania First

3,895

1.26

-0.21

0.09

Liberals For Forests

1,892

0.61

+0.61

0.04

Others (4 groups + ungrouped)

2,436

0.79

-8.78

0.06

Formal

308,662

96.71

-0.24

Informal

10,493

3.29

+0.24

Total Votes and Turnout

319,155

96.23

-0.13

Enrolment

331,675

Quota

44,095

1998 Result

Party group

Votes

%

Swing

Quotas

Labor Party (3 elected)

128,377

41.63

+2.57

2.91

Liberal Party (2 elected)

104,268

33.81

-8.44

2.37

Brian Harradine Group (1 elected)

24,254

7.87

+7.87

0.55

The Greens

17,905

5.81

-2.87

0.41

Australian Democrats

12,107

3.93

-3.20

0.27

Pauline Hanson's One Nation

11,655

3.78

+3.78

0.26

Tasmania First

4,548

1.47

+1.47

0.10

Abolish Child Support/Family Court

1,750

0.57

+0.57

0.04

Others (5 groups + ungrouped)

3,513

1.14

-1.75

0.08

Formal

308,377

96.95

+0.11

Informal

9,704

3.05

-0.11

Total Votes and Turnout

318,081

96.35

-0.53

Enrolment

330,121

Quota

44,054

Past Results

Summary of Past Elections

Election

Percentage of Vote

Seats Won

Year (Seats)

ALP

LIB

DEM

GRN

HAR

OTH

ALP

LIB

DEM

GRN

HAR

1977 (5)

37.7

49.8

5.9

..

..

6.6

2

3

..

..

..

1980 (5)

35.6

39.4

3.2

..

21.4

0.4

2

2

..

..

1

1983 (10)

32.8

42.6

6.8

..

17.8

..

4

5

..

..

1

1984 (7)

41.6

40.7

6.1

..

8.8

2.8

3

3

1

..

..

1987 (12)

40.8

38.7

6.8

..

13.3

0.4

5

5

1

..

1

1990 (6)

41.3

44.1

7.9

4.9

..

1.8

2

3

1

..

..

1993 (6)

42.7

36.7

1.7

6.8

10.4

1.7

3

2

..

..

1

1996 (6)

39.1

42.3

7.1

8.7

..

2.8

2

3

..

1

..

1998 (6)

41.6

33.8

3.9

5.8

7.9

7.0

3

2

..

..

1

2001 (6)

36.8

38.8

4.6

13.8

..

6.0

2

3

..

1

..

Notes: HAR means the Brian Harradine Group. Note that the Brian Harradine Group ran candidates at the 1984 election though Harradine himself did not face election. The National Party contested the 1996 election and polled 1.2%. One Nation polled 3.8% in 1998 and 3.3% in 2001.