Saturday Service Plays

To say Kansas has been dominating at home would be an understatement. 7-0 last year winning by an average of 45 points and scoring an average of 56 points a game. Last week they won by 30 while scoring 40. Meanwhile, LA Tech is coming in off a nice upset against Miss. St., but an upset mostly setup by State's 5 turnovers. LA Tech was held under 250 yards of offense and were held to 1 touchdown or less in 5 of 7 road games last year. In addition, LA Tech has only covered 4 of their last 22 as a road dog. Look for Kansas to roll again.

Bowling Green is coming off a monster upset at Pittsburgh and this is not a very good spot for the Falcons. They trailed 14-0 early but came back thanks to the Panthers basically giving it away. Pittsburgh actually outgained Bowling Green 393-254 but four turnovers did the Panthers in. It was the first win over a top 25 team since 2003 so if ever there is a chance for a letdown, this is it.

Minnesota is coming off a home win over Northern Illinois to start the season. It was a much closer game than expected and it took a touchdown with just 22 seconds remaining for the Gopher to avoid yet another opening game upset from a MAC opponent. Last season, it was Bowling Green who defeated the Gophers in overtime to start they ear so Minnesota is playing with some revenge.

The Gophers put up 425 yards of total offense and that will be the strength again this year. Minnesota has nine returning starters on offense, including quarterback Adam Weber, who led the offense in rushing and passing last year. It finished 48th in total offense which was outstanding considering it was the first year the new offense was in place. The Gophers scored 31 or more points six times so they are right on pace with that again after matching that against the Huskies.

The Falcons defense played well against the Panthers but they could be in for some trouble here. Minnesota put up 434 yards in last season’s meeting including 246 yards on the ground. The rushing defense allowed a whopping 207.9 ypg last season and while it did a good job against Pittsburgh on Saturday, this spread attack will be much tougher to defend. Bowling Green finished 93rd overall and 94th in scoring defense a season ago.

This line is the first thing that jumps out. Bowling Green did take out a team from the Big East but now being favored by a decent amount over a Big Ten team is simply too aggressive. The MAC has provided many upsets over the years but the question is can Bowling Green do it two weeks in a row? I say there is no chance but we get enough points to cover a close game if it comes down to it. Look for the Gophers outright. Play Minnesota Golden Gophers 1.5 Units

Saturday's game between Oklahoma and Cincinnati is one of the better match ups on the board, though you might not know it with top sportsbooks setting the spread for the game at Oklahoma -21. Both teams dominated in their season opener against weaker teams, of course, but confidence will be riding high for the Sooners as well as the Bearcats.

Cincinnati's starting QB, Dustin Grutza got off to a blazing start in week one, scoring 4 touchdowns (3 passing, 1 rushing) and racking up 296 yards passing, good enough for Big East Player of the Week honors. Grutza and the rest of the Bearcat offense will have their hands full this week against a very good Oklahoma defense, but if the QB can stay consistent and the offensive line can give him time to throw, they can put up a fight in Oklahoma Saturday. Don't expect 550+ yards of total offense from this squad again this week, but with the talent they put on the field you shouldn't expect them to be totally absent either.

The Bearcat defense also impressed against Eastern Kentucky in week one. They only allowed one touchdown in a 40-7 rout of the Colonels. Playing from behind all game allowed Eastern Kentucky to rack up over 100 yards through the air (still not a very impressive feat), but the Cincy rush defense allowed just 48 yards on the ground, a solid number against any level of competition.

The Oklahoma Sooners were predictably dominant in the season opener against Chattanooga last week. OU dominated the first half of the game, going up 50-0 by halftime, before mercifully easing up in the second half, eventually winning 57-2. The running and passing games were both hitting on all cylinders against an out-matched defense which allowed Oklahoma to rack up 487 yards by the final whistle.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Sooners were even more impressive than Cincinnati was against Eastern Kentucky. This unit allowed a total of 16 rushing yards and 20 passing yards, allowing a total of only 36 yards of total offense. The defensive line is one of the best in the nation and will certainly be causing fits in the backfield for the Cincinnati offense all game long.

The 21 point spread for this game is a little bit surprising considering that this is a big jump in competition for the Sooners, at least at first glance. But, looking up and down the field at these teams you start to realize just how much better of a team that Oklahoma is. The Sooners are one of the elite teams in college football. Do not be surprised to see them in the BCS Championship this season. On both sides of the ball they are head-and-shoulders above the Bearcats. Three touchdowns might seem like a lot, but don't think for a minute that Bob Stoops's crew is going to let up against a more nationally-known opponent.

Take BG easy over MIN here. The points will not even matter here. This winner will be by at least 10 points. BG showed that they don't even have to play there best game to win at PITT that was ranked #25 in the country at the time. Now back home expect BG to really put in on a undermaned MIN team. MIN struggled last week to beat N. Illinois and don't see them improving much in one week. Big 10 has struggled so far this season, expect for this to continue. Take BG in a romp. SCORE BG 31 - MIN 20

Amazingly, the Gators have lost their last six meetings with the Hurricanes, although this is the first meeting between these two rivals since the '04 Peach Bowl (Miami won, 27-10). That's worth pointing out because from '05-'07, while the Gators have gone 31-8 (including winning a national championship in '06), the 'Canes are just 21-16 (12-24 ATS!) during that span, including a 5-7 mark last year. Florida 'warmed up' for its meeting with Miami by trouncing overmatched Hawaii last Saturday in "The Swamp," beating the Rainbows 56-10. Tebow was asked to do very little but the Florida defense was in mid-season form, holding the Rainbows without a TD until the game's final two minutes. Florida's 2ndy returned two INTs for TDs, plus James threw in a 74-yard punt return TD as well. Miami opened last Saturday with a 52-7 home win over Charleston Southern, christening its new home (Dolphin Stadium), after spending seven decades in the Orange Bowl. True freshman QB Jacory Harris accounted for two touchdowns. Harris started only because first-string QB Robert Marve (a red-shirt freshman) was serving a one-game suspension for disciplinary reasons. Marve is expected to start here and ironically will square-off against Heisman-winner Tim Tebow. A "side story" to this game is the fact that Marve broke Tebow's state high school records for yards and TDs. Expect Tebow to bring his "A-game" for this contest against a Miami defenses adapting to its third DC in the last three years. The Hawaii 'cover' makes Florida 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games (since the beginning of LY) and Miami, with just eight returning starters, is just 3-7 ATS on the road the last two years, including blowout losses at Oklahoma (51-13) and Virginia Tech (44-14) last season. Lay the points with the Gators.

Week 1 is always the lowest scoring week of the college football season, with offenses needing a bit of work against ‘real’ defenses before they can get in to any kind of a rhythm. Historically, the biggest increase from scoring from week to week occurs between the first and second week of the season. For example, in 2007, scoring increased by more than eight points per game from Week 1 to Week 2, while Overs cashed at a 67% clip. There’s no shame in looking for solid Over’s to bet this week.

Texas Tech put up 639 yards of offense in their opener last week, scoring 49 points, yet we’re getting quotes like these from the Red Raiders. Head coach Mike Leach: “We are a spotty team. I don't think that we played what I consider well more than three series in a row on either side of the ball.” Third year quarterback starter Graham Harrell: “That was a pretty sloppy game and offensively we were pretty sloppy. We've got a long ways to go and a lot of room to get better.” I expect a focused, well executed performance from an offense that scored 41 points per game last year, facing a slower, undersized Nevada defense that struggles to stop high octane attacks.

But don’t sell the Wolfpack’s offense short either. Head coach Chris Ault has found the perfect quarterback to run his pistol offense in sophomore Colin Kaepernick, the WAC Freshman of the Year last season. Eight starters return from an offense that scored 33 points per game last year; six points higher than that at home. Expect a wild shootout in Reno on Saturday Night, sending this game flying Over the total.Take the Over.

BYU has come into this season shooting to become last season's Hawaii, the team from a non-BCS conference to receive a BCS bowl bid. The Cougars have a history of high-powered offenses, and it looks no different this season. The public LOVES offense, and they tend to follow that when they bet. High-scoring offenses also tend to turn the ball over, as the Cougars did last week by coughing up five fumbles. BYU had a good defense last season, but lost eight starters from that unit. There's still a question how the new starters will perform after allowing some big plays last week against Northern Iowa.

Washington is coming off a road loss to No. 18 Oregon, and the Huskies' Tyrone Willingham is on the hot seat in his fourth season. Willingham does have a special talent in QB Jake Locker, who passed for 2,062 yards and ran for another 986 in 2007. The Huskies defense has experience and a new coordinator in Ed Donatell, who spent 13 seasons as a coordinator in the NFL.

The Cougars are receiving 60% of wagers at Sports Insights' contributing sportsbooks, but the line has moved in the opposite direction you would expect. BYU opened at Pinnacle as 10-point favorites, but are currently at -8.5. A 1.5 point move against that percentage shows me that the Sharps are backing Washington. I'm going to follow the Smart Money, especially since there are still some places offering Washington +9.5 (Sports Interaction).

Washington +9.5

Texas A&M vs New Mexico

Texas A&M opened the Mike Sherman era with a home loss to Arkansas State, not a good way to endear yourself to the Aggies' 12th Man. Sherman is switching to a pro-style offense at A&M, but it doesn't look like he has the right fit of players for that system. Senior QB Stephen McGee is more of a dual-threat player, as he was the Big 12's top rushing quarterback last season with 899 yards. Sherman also moved bruising RB Jorvorskie Lane to fullback, and made Mike Goodson the featured back. The Aggies didn't have a strong defense last season, and lost their top-2 defensive players heading into 2008.

New Mexico won its first bowl game since 1961 last season with a 23-0 defeat of Nevada in the New Mexico Bowl. The Lobos return key talent on offense including two-time first-team all-conference running back Rodney Ferguson. He is joined in the backfield by fellow RB Paul Baker (over 200 yards total offense in New Mexico Bowl). New Mexico also returns a strong secondary from last season, which could give fits to A&M's McGee.

The Aggies are receiving 76% of the betting public's support playing on the road, but they have moved from -3 favorites at Pinnacle to -2.5. Yet again, I'm following the Sharps and taking the home dog. Much like last week's Michigan game, beware of a coach implementing a new system without the right players in place to run it.

New Mexico +2.5

Mississippi vs Wake Forest

Wake Forest went on the road and crushed Big 12 cellar dweller Baylor 41-13 in week 1. Junior Riley Skinner begins his third season as the Demon Deacons starting QB. Skinner was the most accurate passer in the NCAA last season with a 72-percent completion rate, but Wake lost four starters along its offensive line. The Deacs also return the bulk of a talented defense.

In Houston Nutt's debut Mississippi started out the year with a big win against Memphis. It seems Nutt has found a decent option in Junior WR Dexter McCluster to play the Darren McFadden position of his "Wildcat" offense that he brought over from Arkansas. Texas transfer QB Jevan Snead looked good in his first action for Ole Miss, and the Rebels' unpredictable offense can confuse even the most experienced defenses. With DT Peria Jerry and DE Greg Hardy, the Rebels also feature the SEC's most talented defensive line duo, and a potential stud LB in Allen Walker.

The Deacs are receiving two-thirds of public wagers after receiving extra media attention for being the only ACC team to actually look good in week 1. Even with that public support, the line has moved a half-point in their favor. Could that be a sign of smart money I see? Absolutely. When two teams this talented square off, anything can happen, and we're following the Sharps in thinking this is a close one. I'll take Ole Miss and the points.

Sometimes it is good to have a short memory while other times (like this one) it is good to remember the past. The Owls won five games last year, but were only credited with four. They had one stolen when a late TD was ruled out of bounds by the refs, while replays clearly showed otherwise. The Owls return all 22 starters this season, all with a fresh memory of that game. Revenge is a sweet motive! Add to that the fact that this team was told a few years ago that they were no longer wanted in the Big East. The Owls finally have the talent to make a statement about those painful memories. Connecticut was the luckiest team in the Big East last season, getting wins vs. Temple and Louisville that were aided by botched calls. They also got a weather break against South Florida and had a huge surplus in turnovers and relatively few injuries. The result? They finished tied for first in the Big last despite being outgained by nearly 100 yards per game! They looked absolutely horrible against a hapless Hofstra team last week, and won because their talent was just extreme vs the competition. They don't enjoy that edge here, and this one is on the road where the Huskies are just 5-14 in their last 19. The Owls are motivated and pumped up here and we like them a lot to get the cover.

Oregon State makes the long, ‘rough’ travel to Happy Valley and the Beavers figure to be swimming up stream here. A majority of the SU and ATS victories in week 1 were by teams that dominated at the point of attack and had success in the running game. Oregon State figures to struggle against the staunch Penn State defense after managing just 86 rushing yards last week versus an inferior Stanford team. Beavers QB Lyle Moevao will be pressured throughout and may be forced to throw over 40 times again (54 passes last week). Oregon State made numerous mistakes and turnovers while also playing undisciplined with 12 penalties. Despite solid overall yardage and expected improvement in week 2, Oregon State will find moving the ball much more difficult against Penn State’s dominating defensive front...although must note the suspension of DE Evans and DT Koroma. Meanwhile, Penn State romped 66-10 over an inferior foe last week led by a deep group of running backs and a veteran offensive line that paved the way for over 330 rushing yards. The Oregon State defense allowed Stanford to run for 210 yards and their defense is very thin on experience and features no returning starter along the defensive line. Another 3+ touchdown victory looks probable for Jo Pa and Penn State

The Chippewas of Central Michigan have consistently been the best team in the MAC since Dan LeFevour took his first snap. He entered his freshman year as the third string signal caller only to see both his fellow quarterbacks go down with injuries in the season opener. Since that time he has stepped in and never missed a beat as he has put himself on the NFL radar. Central scored 43 total points in three road games last year vs BCS schools Kansas, Purdue and Clemson. So with the signal caller now in his junior year we can see the Chippewas reaching at least 14 here. The problem for Central Michigan in those games was that they played a matador defense. They let Kansas score 52, Purdue reach 45 and Clemson lit them up for 70 points. With Georgia being loaded this year and with Matthew Stafford at the top of the NFL future quarterback lists we can see the Bulldogs pouring it on. Especially when you consider that in beating Georgia Southern handily last week they dropped out of the number one slot in the polls. We fully expect coach Richt and the Bulldogs to run up the score here as they try to influence the pollsters with an impressive victory.

Houston Nutt takes his road show to Ole Miss, after having vast success at Arkansas and winning some big games down there, before getting ran out of town on a railcar by boosters for reasons which still baffle me. None the less, the Rebels were impressive as they rolled a decent Memphis team last week and WR McCluster is the "real deal" as he tore up the Tiger secondary and I think he will keep Wake Forests defense on edge all day. Ol Miss has some balance and good sized lineman up front as well on offense. Yes the defense is a a question mark, but on offense they will trade punches in this match up.

Not impressed yet with Wake who drubbed Big 12 bottom feeder Baylor last week, which is no surprise, and while QB Skinner is back in form, I like QB Snead for Ole Miss to trade punches in a high scoring game here. Both quarterbacks in this game are playmakers and way above average in talent. A big step up in class for #20 Wake, against an SEC team who has renewed confidence and a coach willing to take some big chances in big games, and for one reason or another, Houston Nutt seems to get the most out of his players and they overachieve, which in fact I think Ol Miss makes this a close one on the road.

This game opened at Wake -10 and has dropped all week, I have even seen some -7.5 numbers coming in Friday, so I am not alone in thinking this game is tighter than the oddsmakers originally thought.

A lot of early pressure in Charlie Weis to make something positive happen, and for one of the rare times in his tenure at South Bend he has the coaching advantage over Chuck Long, who appears to be over-matched. SD ST is awful and lost last week to a D-2 school. ND finally has some offensive weapons and coming off a 3 win season didn't sit well with Charlie (buffet boy) Weis. They need to win this year and open the season with a BLOWOUT WIN. NOTRE DAME WINS 45-14

If BYU is serious about their BCS bowl aspirations this game will be a major hurdle to get there. In spite of the Huskies going through tough times in recent years this is only 1 of the 2 games on their schedule versus a BCS Conference team. I look for BYU to be totally focused and come out with a superlative effort. In spite of how elusive and good a runner that Washington quarterback Jake Locker is the Cougar defense will not allow 1 guy to beat them.

Any non-conference home underdog of 14.0 or less that is off a conference away SU and ATS loss by 22 points or more as an underdog of 4.5 or better, and they have won 3 or more of their last 22 games overall is 0-16 SU and ATS. The favorite has won those 16 games by an average of 23.6 points per game. Play on BYU minus the points.

There’s nothing worse than getting embarrassed in your season opener. After putting in all the blood, sweat and tears in August, laying an egg in the first game of the season really hurts.

Maybe it was a lack of preparation. Or, like Clemson last week, one team was simply outcoached. Regardless of the situation, the fact remains that you are resting at 0-1 SU and know that a second blemish would be the absolute worst case scenario.

When it comes to handicapping college football, it is imperative that you isolate those teams that take the field “with a definite reason to play”. Motivation is huge at this level and good ‘cappers know when to use it to their advantage. This is one time when a little extra energy goes a long way. Take a look.

Since 1980, PLAY ON any game two college football favorite priced at -9’ or more provided they lost straight up as a favorite of -7 or more in their season opener.

28 Year ATS Record = 14-5 ATS for 73.6 percent.

This Week’s Play PITTSBURGH

As you can see, those game two teams that got rocked in game one as a touchdown favorite or more bounce back nicely when favored by -9’ or more in their next contest. Amazingly, the 19 teams in that set all won the game too by an average of 26.6 points per game!

There is one tightener to this Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde system that really makes it pop. With out 14-5 ATS record in hand, we can improve this situation to a perfect 7-0 SU and ATS for 100 percent provided our “play on” team is matched up against an opponent that is NOT off a straight up loss. (That means our “play against” side enters off a straight up win or this is their season opener.) Please note: Those seven wins have come by an average of 33.0 points per game!

Last Saturday, Pittsburgh jumped out to an early lead against Bowling Green but couldn’t close. The Falcons upset the Panthers 27-17. Off that loss and with the support of this rare system in play, Dave Wannstedt will have his troops ready to play. Good luck with Pittsburgh on Saturday!

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