Chris Christie, the White House, and 40 bucks

That’s the amount of money that has the potential to change the political course of New Jersey, America, and the world.

Why? Because $40 is roughly the amount the average New Jersey household would get if Gov. Chris Christie original 10 percent, across-the-board income tax cut somehow gets passed by the Democrat-controlled legislature. (It won’t. Nor will the Democrats plan to offer a tax credit based on property tax bills. Why? Budget projections not being met and Superstorm Sandy. More about this later. Back to the actual proposed tax cuts … )

But if you read the news articles, listen to the soundbites, you’d think the tax cuts in question would bring about Nirvana if passed, Hell on Earth if denied.

In reality, all it is is some political gamesmanship.

“I’ve heard some people talking concerns for the middle class in this state and I share that concern and I think if they did they (the Democrats) should have passed the middle class tax which is what we wanted to do and what I still want to do,” Christie said, according to a report on NJ101.5. “They seem to just like to talk about doing something for the middle class rather than actually cutting taxes for the middle class.”

The response from the Senate President Steve Sweeney? Honestly, he sounded more like the governor than the governor himself.

“Well you know that’s a lot of crap,” Sweeney said, according to the report.

Remember: This whole fight started over what amounts to $40.

Background: Last summer, Christie’s fiscal year 2013 budget included plans for the 10 percent tax cut. Democrats immediately went after it, saying it was a tax cut for the wealthy, not the middle class. The Office of Legislative Services (OLS) ran some numbers, and they bore out the Dems concerns. A family with a $50,000 income would get a $26.83 tax cut in 2013, whereas a family making $250,000 would get nearly $400, according to the OLS.

The Democrats also noted the budget was, at best, optimistic, and at worst, going to be impossible to meet. So they hedged on the tax cut plan, saying they’d pass the tax cut if the money was there come this January.

It became clear, early on, the money was not going to be there. The state was running a shortfall almost from the word go. The Dems floated out their alternate tax cut plan, but pulled back as the shortfall just continued to grow.

Now, especially in the aftermath of Sandy, the budget is going to be short. Not only won’t there be a tax cut, but in all probability, services will have to be trimmed.

And right there, that’s the battle Christie will have to fight to win re-election next year. He has to convince New Jersey voters the tax cut kibosh was the Democrats fault, pure and simple (which it was, but it was probably the right thing to do). He has to argue the “middle class” would’ve benefited tremendously from the tax cut (they wouldn’t have, but we middle class types are easily confused by math). He has to figure out a way to cut services without making it look like he’s, you know, cutting services (if you’re poor and live in an inner city, watch out).

Christie does have some wiggle room here, as he’s sitting at a eye-popping 72 percent approval rating, according to the latest Quinnipiac poll. But that really means nothing. Just ask the first George Bush, who had an 89 percent approval rating a little more than an year before the 1992 presidential election. It didn’t hold, to say the least.

I’m telling you: This tax cut that won’t happen (almost certainly) and the budget not being met (probably) are going to be some major pivot points going forward. They’re intertwined.

And remember: All of this started with an innocent little (emphasis “little”) tax cut plan. It may end up costing Christie a second term. And if he loses, it all but ends any White House dreams for Christie.

But if he weathers it and wins re-election … well, it will not go unnoticed by the national Republicans, a group that isn’t as enamored with our governor as they once were.