UFC 66: Performify's Picks

UFC 66: Performify's Picks

Performify here. Your primary voice of MMAjunkie.com is on the road today, and I thought I’d commandeer the site and get the picks up for the readers who are tapping their fingers at work waiting for new content. So any mistakes or misspellings or anything else are solely the responsibility of yours truly.

I’m exceedingly excited about the UFC 66 card this weekend. We’ve got a couple decent matchups to bet in my opinion – no significantly “off” lines that justify wagering a significant amount, but we should be able to edge out some value in betting most fights on the card and playing the small percentage edges. Playing these small-percentage edges is a significant part of being a winning handicapper, especially so in a sport decided on moneyline odds like mixed-martial arts. If you’ve got a line that’s set at +300, corresponding to a 75% chance of winning, and the correct line should be +275, that’s a small percentage edge of not even 2%, but its enough of an edge that value is going to come out of it in the long run. For example, take my last round of UFC predictions and the clear value I was able to identify in the line for Keita Nakamura (I was able to successfully predict about a 50-cent swing in that line). While Nakamura didn’t pull off the upset (instead losing a close decision in which many thought he was robbed), the value was in betting him at a the errant line. We gained value that would pay off in the long run; over the long run we exploit small-percentage edges (or in that case, a large-percentage edge) and we show a profit in the long term.

On to the picks, and best of luck to anyone considering betting a fight.

As always, these are the widely available lines at the time this was written:

Andrei Arlovski vs. Marcio Cruz

Andrei Arlovski -471

Marcio Cruz +431

Arlovski, a.k.a. “PitBull,” sports a 9-5 MMA record after getting flash KO’d by eBay Timmy at UFC 59 in April, then losing the boring decision loss at UFC 61 in July Ã¢â?¬â?? a loss in which Arlovski reportedly suffered an injury to his leg in the first round thus resulting in possibly the most boring five-round fight in history.

Marcio “Pe de Pano” Cruz has a 2-1 MMA record, all in the UFC — a submission victory over Japanese fighter Keigo Kunihara at UFC 55 in October 2005, a TKO of Frank Mir at UFC 57 back in February 2006, and then a closely contested split-decision loss in which many would say Cruz was robbed of the decision (to Jeff Monson at UFC 59 back in April of this year). Cruz is a Gracie Barra black belt, a world champion in both the Mundials and ADCC.

This line is pretty well set. Arlovski is coming in as a massive favorite for a reason. Cruz certainly can’t stand with AA, but AA is skilled on the ground, with his background in Sambo and his current BJJ training under Dino Costeas. Arlovski also has a significant speed advantage, which is very dangerous to Cruz both on the feet and when the fight goes to the ground. I’d recommend staying away from this fight from a gambling perspective. There isn’t enough value in Arlovski here, and I don’t see Cruz being able to catch AA in a submission before AA pounds him in to oblivion. I’ll predict AA with a first-round KO.

Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Carmelo Marrero

Gabriel Gonzaga -276

Carmelo Marrero +256

Gabriel “Napao” Gonzaga is a Brazilian fighter with a 6-1 MMA record who has experience in Abu Dhabi, Shooto Brazil, Vale Tudo, as well as the octagon; you might remember seeing Gonzaga at UFC 59 in November 2005 where he KO’d Kevin Jordan in the end of the first round, and then again at UFC 60 (Hughes vs. Gracie) where he TKO’d fellow Brazilian Fabiano Scherner. Gonzaga has trained with some of the best in Brazil, receiving his BJJ black belt from Wander Braga and usually training with Marco Alvan at Link BJJ; however he has put in time with several other standout Brazilian names, including members of the vaunted Chute Boxe team. Unlike in PRIDE, it’s not too often you see a heavyweight in the UFC with some serious ground skills, but surprisingly, we’ve really yet to see much on the ground from Gonzaga in the UFC, as both his previous UFC fights have been mostly standup matches. However, he’s certainly skilled in BJJ, with four submissions in his six wins, including choking out UFC fighter Branden Lee Hinkle with a triangle choke in Vale Tudo back in 2003 in Brazil. Not to mention Gonzaga’s decorated record in grappling contests outside of MMA; he is a four-time Brazilian jiu-jitsu national champion and placed second at Abu Dhabi Combat Club 2005 (losing in the finals to Jeff Monson).

Carmelo “The Fury” Marrero is 5-0 in MMA and holds the heavyweight championship in the Cage Fury Fighting series. You should remember Marrero from UFC 64 just two months ago, where he won a surprising split decision over the (formerly) highly touted Frenchman Cheick Kongo. Melo has a background mostly in the Reality Fighting series, and his strengths are wrestling, takedowns, and ground and pound. Melo has won two fights by submission (both rear-naked chokes), one by TKO, and three by decision. Melo has been training with Forrest Griffin, Adam and Rory Singer, and Big John Gartham for this fight.

Marrero didn’t impress me much in his win over Kongo. He really didn’t do much on the ground — he just won on the cards with takedowns and some limited ground and pound. I didn’t see anything there that makes me think he can roll with a BJJ standout. I think Gonzaga presents very good value here and is worth a straight bet, 2.81 units to win 1 unit. I predict Gonzaga by submission, setup by strikes, finishing on the ground, in the very first round.

Christian Wellisch vs. Anthony Perosh

Christian Wellisch -151

Anthony Perosh +141

Christian Wellisch fights with the American Kickboxing Academy and sports a 6-3 MMA record. He was last seen at UFC 62 in August, where he was KO’d by a big knee from the aforementioned Cheick Kongo in the first round.

Australian Anthony Perosh has a 5-2 MMA record, with his first loss in Shooto Australia in 2004, and then his second loss at UFC 61 in July, where he was TKO’d in the first round by the heavy hands of Jeff Monson. Perosh is a BJJ blackbelt and trains (and teaches) with onetime UFC fighter Elvis Sinosic.

Perosh looked terrible in the match with Monson, letting the much shorter Monson just pick him apart on his feet. I don’t really see much of anything that’s impressive from either fighter. The loss to Kongo hurts Wellisch, due to how bad Kongo subsequently looked against Marrero. I have a hard time picking either of these two fighters to win, so instead I’ll pick Wellisch to lose. While the training with AKA probably gives Wellisch a slight edge in that department, Perosh is supposedly a well-regarded BJJ fighter. I’m going to hope that we can see that here, so my prediction is Perosh by submission in the second round. This is an undercard match, and based on what I know about these two fighters, I really doubt we see it unless Wellisch pulls out a quick KO or Perosh pulls out a quick sub. More than likely though, this fight will be slow and methodical and may even go the distance. Meh. Not excited about this at all, if you can’t tell. I don’t see value in betting this; neither fighter has impressed me enough to back them with money.

Michael Bisping vs. Eric Schafer

Michael Bisping -381

Eric Schafer +351

“The Count” Bisping everyone should know as the Englishman who secured the light heavyweight contract from The Ultimate Fighter 3 with his knockout of Josh Haynes in the finale. Prior to coming across the pond for show, Bisping fought in Cage Rage (where he once held the light-heavyweight title) and in the Cage Warriors series (where he also held the light-heavyweight title).

Eric Schafer sports a 7-1-2 MMA record, and previously fought on the undercard of UFC 62 (Liddell vs. Sobral), where he pulled out a surprising upset of Rob MacDonald with a first-round triangle. Schafer holds a brown belt in BJJ under Henry Matamoros and Pedro Sauer, and currently holds the Xtreme Fighting Organization (XFO) light-heavyweight championship title.

Bisping and Schafer were supposed to meet on Nov. 11 at The Ultimate Fighter 4 Finale, but Bisping had visa issues and couldn’t get in the country. When interviewed about this fight, Bisping quipped, “I’m not worried about going to the ground. I’m pretty talented on the floor. There’s no doubt in my mind that I can out-grapple and submit almost anyone. But why take the fight to the ground — where Schafer’s best chance is — when I can stand up and probably waste him in one or two rounds?” Bisping also added “I’ll actually be pissed off with myself if he even gets a takedown; I’ve pushed myself that hard in training I’d actually offend myself if I get taken down.”

While Schafer isn’t a slouch, he hasn’t fought anyone at Bisping’s level, and this will be a showoff fight for one of the UFC’s big young names at 205. Schafer is still an amateur, holding a regular job as a “laboratory technologist” (Schafer graduated magna cum laude with a degree in Biology/Chemistry from the University of Wisconsin-Oshkosh). Bisping is a full-time fighter and has been for the past two years. That’s a very serious edge across the board, in preparation and in conditioning. Bisping is clearly being groomed for a major run from here, and as such, baring a very freak occurrence, I believe Bisping is a very safe bet here, albeit at obviously steep odds. Look for Bisping to win in the first round with a stoppage due to strikes, and look for The Count to get a much bigger name and much tougher test in his next match. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Babalu or Alessio Sakara thrown around as his next opponents, or the up-and-coming David Heath. Any of the above would present an interesting matchup and serve as a good gatekeeper to the upper echelon of talent at 205. Griffin is obviously another big name at 205, but I’d be really surprised if they wanted to put these two against each other, as Griffin is an obviously popular fighter but needs to grab a couple wins to get his career back on track.

Yushin Okami vs. Rory Singer

Yushin Okami -421

Rory Singer +381

Okami is a teammate of Caol Uno and a strong ground-and-pound fighter. He was first in the UFC on the undercard of UFC 62 (Liddell vs. Sobral), where he beat Alan Belcher by unanimous decision, and then for the second time at UFC 64 (Silva vs. Franklin), where he TKO’d TUFer Kalib Starnes, again on the undercard. Okami is a highly ranked middleweight in Pancrase (recently ranked as high as third in that division). Okami has fought some talent, including Anderson Silva, and a tough Jake Shields. Okami sports a 18-3 MMA record overall and is 5-1 in MMA this year with his only loss a split decision to the aforementioned Jake Shields in Rumble On the Rock 9.

Rory Singer everyone should know from The Ultimate Fighter 3, where he was beaten by Ed Herman on the show. Singer got to fight Englishman Ross Pointon at the show’s Spike TV finale, where he won with a very quick first-round triangle choke. Singer then returned to Ultimate Fight Night 7 (this past Oct. 10), where he won a decision over fellow TUFer Josh Haynes, who has been rather forgettable, dropping four of his last five fights on the way to a mediocre 7-7 record.

I know a lot of rather respected people who believe that Singer is a good bet here, people who feel that Singer’s style will present matchup problems for Okami. And while the classic battle of ground-and-pound striker versus jiu-jitsu grappler can certainly present danger for the striker, I really don’t feel that Singer is in the same class as Okami in the slightest. Okami hasn’t been dominant, and he’s taken well too many of his fights to decision, but he has rattled off a 5-1 record this year against decent competition, whereas Singer has faced average to below-average talent and has struggled against them. He could barely eke out a decision win to the struggling Josh Haynes, who isn’t nearly the striker that Okami is. If Singer couldn’t deal with Haynes, I can’t see any way he can deal with Okami. Okami by TKO (ref stoppage due to strikes) in the third round.

Chris Leben vs. Jason MacDonald

Chris Leben -211

Jason MacDonald +191

Chris “The Crippler” Leben is a UFC veteran – scratch that, an UFC Fight Night veteran. Leben broke on to the UFC scene on the first season of The Ultimate Fighter, where he accomplished three things: he urinated on Jason Thacker’s bed, he was eliminated from the show by Josh Koschek, and then was brought back to the show by Nate Quarry (who injured his ankle and got to hand pick his replacement from his ousted teammates), where he was defeated yet again by the razorblade elbows of Kenny “K-Flo” Florian. Leben then was matched on the undercard of the first TUF finale to fight Jason Thacker, and after humiliating Thacker on the show, he gave him a beating for good measure, winning by a first-round KO. Leben was then brought back for the inaugural UFC Fight Night event, where he won a split decision over Patrick Cote. Leben was then invited back for the following five consecutive UFC Fight Nights. That’s right: he fought at UFN 1 through UFN 6. Along that path he defeated Cote, Edwin Dewees at UFN 2, Jorge Rivera at UFN 3, Luigi Fioravanti at UFN 4, lost decisively to Anderson Silva at UFN 5, and most recently KO’d Jorge Santiago at UFN 6 in August of this year.

Jason “The Athlete” MacDonald is a Canadian fighter who now holds a 17-7 MMA record, but is 5-1 in 2006 with five straight wins after a loss to Patrick Cote in March at Maximum Fighting Championships 9 in Canada. MacDonald made his UFC debut at Ultimate Fight Night 7 (October 2006), where I predicted that he would upset Ed Herman. MacDonald came through, securing a first-round triangle choke to end the fight.

Leben is a Team Quest fighter, which means that Ed Herman is a teammate, and reportedly a very good friend. So there is certainly a revenge factor there. MacDonald is infamously unreliable — he’s shown himself to be very focused and very strong at times, and has shown himself to be unreliable, unfocused and mediocre at times. It’s a complete unknown as to which MacDonald shows up here — the focused Athlete who defeated Herman, who defeated the dangerous Joe Doerkson in the fourth round of a matchup at Ultimate Cage Wars 3 in 2005, who defeated Giddeon Ray by unanimous decision at Extreme Cage Combat 1 in April of this year… or the MacDonald who dropped a few fights he shouldn’t have, like Kalib Starnes? I think it’s the former not the latter — MacDonald is 5-1 in 2006, coming off five straight wins. Leben got exposed big time by Silva. While MacDonald is certainly no Silva, he’s got a gameplan to work from: stay moving and bring accurate strikes from outside. MacDonald is bigger and stronger, and I think he pulls yet another big name upset here. With a win and a six-fight win streak, MacDonald will then present an attractive option to be fed to some of the upper echelon of the stacked 185-pound division. In fact, I wouldn’t be too surprised to see the winner face either Mike “Quick” Swick or Rich Franklin at March’s UFC 68 in Columbus, Ohio, for example. Anyway, this is worth a straight play to win a unit in my opinion. MacDonald with a late-round rear naked choke, let’s say third round.

Thiago Alves vs. Tony DeSouza

Thiago Alves -136

Tony DeSouza +126

Thiago Alves is another Brazilian fighter, a member of the now very large ranks of American Top Team. Alves sports a 9-3 MMA record, 3-2 in the UFC. I’ve actually been pretty surprised that the UFC has kept a hold of Alves. He lost his first fight in the octagon, getting caught by Spencer “The King” Fisher in a triangle at UFC Fight Night 2 in October 2005. We’ve seen the UFC drop fighters for a lot less. But Alves was brought back just a month later on the UFC 56 undercard, where he KO’d Russian fighter Ansar Chalangov in the first round. Alves then returned to UFC 59 (the card featuring Tito Ortiz vs. Forrest Griffin) in April of this year and KO’d Derrick Noble in the first round. Alves was next seen at UFC Fight Night 5 two months later, where he was straight worked by the hard-charging John Fitch, a quality opponent. Fitch is now 12-2 in MMA and is undefeated since the end of 2002. In their fight, Alves caught Fitch in a guillotine in the first round, but couldn’t finish it, and Fitch pounded Alves for most of the rest of the round, taking the round in my opinion. Fitch then dominated Alves in the second round, leading up to Fitch stopping Alves with strikes toward the end of the second round.

Tony DeSouza, yet another Brazilian fighter, is a veteran of the fight scene, making his MMA debut back in 2000 and making his UFC debut at UFC 31 back in May 2001, where he was victorious on the undercard of one of the UFC’s better fight cards in my opinion; UFC 31 featured the main event of Randy Couture vs. Pedro Rizzo (who was 11-1 at the time of that fight), as well as Chuck Liddell vs. Kevin Randleman, Carlos Newton vs. Pat Miletich, and the debut of “The Prodigy” B.J. Penn. But back to DeSouza. After winning at UFC 31, he returned to win his next fight at UFC 32 the following month, then fought again at UFC 33 three months later, where he was KO’d at the start of the second round by Japanese shooto fighter Jutaro Nakao. DeSouza then left the UFC, fighting in the World Fighting Alliance’s inaugural event (WFA 1), where he scored a first-round TKO. DeSouza then left MMA for almost three years before returning in mid-2004 to fight primarily in Vale Tudo and the Jungle Fighting series, culminating in his recent return to the UFC at UFC Fight Night 7 (October 2006), where he defeated Dustin Hazelett with a first-round kimura. Since his return in 2004, DeSouza is 5-1 in MMA, with his lone loss a stoppage to a cut in April 2005.

I’ve been pretty high on Alves, backing him in several of his past fights, but I can’t back him here. While both fighters have been in the octagon several times, DeSouza has the edge in overall MMA experience. While Alves is a better striker, DeSouza has a five-inch height advantage that will give him a decent reach advantage, thus helping to balance the playing field on the feet. DeSouza’s record and everything I’ve been able to read on him indicates he’s got an edge on the ground, and I think this fight will end up there, and as such I’m going to predict DeSouza by submission in the first round. I think there’s room here for a small play, but this fight is enough of a coinflip not to warrant a significant bet in my opinion.

Forrest Griffin vs. Keith Jardine

Forrest Griffin -266

Keith Jardine +246

The popular Forrest Griffin now sports a 13-3 MMA record after losing the split decision to Tito Ortiz at UFC 59 — his first loss since 2003 and first since emerging on the national stage courtesy the first Ultimate Fighter series. Forrest comes in off a rather unimpressive but decisive unanimous-decision win over Stephan Bonnar at UFC 62 (Liddell vs. Sobral). Jardine sports a 11-2-1 MMA record, but his most recent defeat is courtesy a very shaky unanimous-decision loss to Stephan Bonnar at UFC Fight Night 4 in April of this year. However, despite Jardine’s impressive record, he really doesn’t have any significant wins, and I expect this to be a relative cakewalk for Forrest. While I’m sure it will be a decent fight, with the two most likely going toe-to-toe with Forrest swinging away wildly, I don’t see anything in Jardine that makes me think he’s going to be able to pull this out. Griffin checks a leg kick and pops Jardine in the face a few times. Someone surely taught Griffin to check a leg kick, and hopefully his striking accuracy has gone up a tiny bit. Griffin by TKO in the second round: we all know Forrest has to see some of his own blood to get things started, so we probably won’t see a first-round KO here.

Chuck Liddell vs. Tito Ortiz

Chuck Liddell -261

Tito Ortiz +241

I previously wrote quite a bit about this matchup in my preliminary writeup, and forgive me while I rehash a bit of that here.

I think neither fighter needs much in the way of introduction. Chuck Liddell is one of the UFC’s most dominant fighters in history. His place in the UFC Hall of Fame is assured. But let me break down quickly how impressive Chuck’s 19-3 MMA record really is: Liddell back in 1998 at UFC 17 (back when the fights went one round) won a decision over Extreme Challenge fighter Noe Hernandez. Liddell returned to UFC 19 in 1999, where he suffered his first MMA loss via triangle to Jeremy Horn. Liddell then rebounded with a string of 10 straight wins, beating a who’s who of MMA at the time: Jeff Monson (UFC 29), Kevin Randleman (UFC 31), Guy Mezger (PRIDE 14), Murilo Bustamante (UFC 33), Vitor Belfort when he was good (UFC 37.5) and “Babalu” Sobral (UFC 40). Liddell then suffered his second loss, the first in almost four years, to Randy Couture at UFC 43. Liddell then bounced to PRIDE again to drop the impressive Dutch kickboxer Alistair Overeem (Total Elimination 2003) before suffering his third and most recent loss to the always-deadly (and newly signed UFC fighter) Quinton “Rampage” Jackson at PRIDE Final Conflict 2003 (Nov. 9, 2003). Chuck has then rattled off wins in his last six fights: dropping Ortiz early in the second round at UFC 47, defeating Couture twice at UFC 52 and 57, avenging his loss to Jeremy Horn at UFC 54, and most recently, of course, dropping Babalu for second time at UFC 62.

Ortiz’s career is similar in some regards: he has a 15-4 MMA record, not too far off of Chuck’s 19-3 record. Tito is a another veteran of the early days of the UFC: Ortiz got his start at UFC 13, back in the tournament format, where he won his first round match but was submitted by Guy Mezger by triangle — the same way Chuck lost his first match — in the second-round bout. Ortiz stayed almost exclusively in the UFC in the early days, rattling off a 10-2 MMA record up to the end of 2002 with wins including Jerry Bohlander (UFC 18), avenging his loss to Guy Mezger at UFC 19, losing to Frank Shamrock in the fourth round of a war at UFC 22, defeating Wanderlei Silva (yes, Pride badass Wanderlei Silva for those new to MMA) by decision in a five-round war at UFC 25, KO’d Evan Tanner with a highlight slam at UFC 30, and his first of three wins over Kenny Shamrock at UFC 40. Ortiz then stepped out of the UFC for almost a year, returning for a unanimous-decision loss to Randy Couture at UFC 44 in late 2003, then the aforementioned KO at the hands of Chuck Liddell at UFC 47 in early 2004. Ortiz took a six-month sabbatical and returned to defeat Patrick Cote by unanimous decision at UFC 50 in late 2004 and Vitor Belfort by split decision at UFC 51 in February 2005. Ortiz then had his infamous split with Dana White and the UFC over salary, leaving perhaps right before the UFC was reaching its peak. Ortiz returned to win the split decision over Forrest Griffin in a fight where Ortiz was clearly hampered by an injured knee. Then we have the coaching gig on The Ultimate Fighter that won Ortiz a new generation of fans, and the two joke matchups of Kenny Shamrock at UFC 61 and UFC Fight Night 7.

Now let’s dig a little deeper and dissect the two. Ortiz has five straight wins and is undefeated since losing to Liddell and Couture two-and-a-half and three years ago respectively. However, those wins are a decision win over Patrick Cote (a mid-tier fighter), a split-decision win over Vitor Belfort right at the pinnacle of Belfort starting the downslide of his oh-so-promising career, and a split decision over Forrest Griffin (though the one round Ortiz had a good leg, the first round, was a pretty dominant Ortiz performance). However, once the leg gave out, Ortiz was lucky to ride it out to a split decision. And then the two contests bordering on jobber fights with Shamrock. So while Ortiz had an amazing young career with wins over some of the bigger names of the burgeoning MMA scene in the early days, Ortiz hasn’t fought anyone of note and won decisively in a long long time. Arguably Evan Tanner is his last legit win against a formidable opponent — and that was back in February 2001 at UFC 30. That’s a long time ago in a galaxy far, far away at this point. However, I will argue that Ortiz did dominate Forrest Griffin for a round, but those of us who are fans of B.J. Penn know that one round does not a fight make.

Now all that being said, this fight comes down to a couple edges for each fighter, and a couple unknowns. First, and foremost, we’ve got conditioning. We know Tito is now a cardio machine and he’ll be in fantastic shape for this fight. The further the fight goes, the more edge Tito gains simply due to conditioning. We also have some reasons to start to suspect Chuck Liddell’s conditioning: first off, we really haven’t seen Chuck tested in a decently long time. Liddell went three-and-a-half rounds with Jeremy Horn in August 2005 at UFC 54, but other than that, he’s only been outside of the first round twice in three years. He went 38 seconds into the second round in the first bout with Tito, and went just over 13 minutes in the loss to Rampage Jackson over three years ago (close to the end of the second round in PRIDE’s 10-5-5 format). We do know Chuck is getting up there in age. He turned 37 on Dec. 17 (happy belated birthday, Mr. Iceman, sir). There aren’t many UFC fighters turning in solid performances beyond the age of 35, let alone at 37. Randy Couture certainly sticks out as an obvious exception, but I’d say the number of fighters doing well over 35 against significantly younger, better conditioned opponents is rare indeed. Ortiz is six years younger than Liddell and certainly better conditioned. We can’t be sure how much the pronounced “beer gut” we saw on Liddell at his match with Babalu will affect his conditioning, thanks to Sobral’s brain-dead decision to pursue Liddell across the ring and allow himself to be counterpunched into oblivion. But it is a rather safe assumption to say that Tito will likely have a very significant edge in conditioning in this fight. It’s a pretty safe bet to say Ortiz has a conditioning edge over just about anyone in the UFC though, so it’s really a question of how significant Tito’s conditioning edge is, and can Tito survive Liddell’s fists long enough for conditioning to play a factor here?

This isn’t a tremendously easy fight to call. We have a couple very major unknowns that a lot of casual fans overlook here: Ortiz hasn’t been tested against a quality opponent in a match where he’s been 100-percent healthy in a long time. Liddell hasn’t been tested in a while either, and we have no idea how his conditioning is these days, or if he’s slowed significantly due to age. We do know that Sobral did get the better of Liddell standing in their first exchange, but Sobral is a very talented striker as well — and well, we did see how that turned out once Sobral thought he had Liddell stunned.

So with the two major unknowns here, I can’t recommend a very significant play either way on this fight. But that said, the current line of Liddell -250ish is high in my opinion. Liddell opened around -220 (+200 Ortiz or so) and has been bet up from there, and has been bet up to the point that I feel pretty strongly that Ortiz is the right play here at around +230 to +240. Right now, Chuck would have to win this fight about 75 percent of the time to make the current line +EV, and I really believe this fight is closer than that. Without question, Liddell is the favorite here, for good reason. However, I feel that Liddell should be closer to a 66 percent favorite translating to closer to a -200 line than a -250 line, and as such I can recommend a play on Tito Ortiz here as +EV in my opinion.

As I said in my preliminary writeup, Ortiz is smart. Chuck is aging, and looked physically very out of shape for his last fight. I know the public loves Chuck, but I’m saying I think Tito has the tools (amazing conditioning, takedowns, strong in the clench, great defense while standing) that are necessary to make this fight competitive for Chuck. But more importantly, with VERY serious questions about Chuck’s conditioning and age, I think its hard to say that this fight is “a lock” for Liddell. More so, I think this fight is going to be a lot closer than people expect, and I think Liddell is going to be constantly in danger. Tito’s going to be smart and isn’t going to give Chuck a chance to counterpunch him to death; he’s going to constantly try to take Chuck down and force Chuck to sprawl and evade, sprawl and evade, until either Chuck gets in a good shot while Tito is shooting, or Chuck’s conditioning/age combine to make him just slow enough for Tito to get a leg, in which case Tito is going to have a pretty big edge on the ground.

My prediction: Ortiz by TKO (elbows in number) in the fourth round — and worth a unit bet on Ortiz at +230 or better in my opinion.

ALBANY, N.Y. – MMAjunkie is on scene and reporting live from today’s UFC Fight Night 102 event at Times Union Center in Albany, N.Y., which kicks off at 5:45 p.m. ET (2:45 p.m. PT). You can discuss the event here.

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