India Today-Nielsen mood of the nation poll gives NDA edge over UPA

Mismanaged economy and corruption seem to be polarising people of the country against the ruling United Progressive Alliance (UPA), apparently giving the opposition National Democratic Alliance (NDA ) and other parties an upper hand in the next Lok Sabha polls, scheduled in 2014, the findings of latest India Today-Nielsen "Mood of the Nation " opinion poll indicate.

It is the most comprehensive survey of popular sentiment towards the nation's rulers. This year's survey spanned 19 states and covered almost 16,000 respondents of voting age. In all, India Today-Nielsen polled 125 parliamentary constituencies covering at least two assembly segments in each.

The results should act as a huge wake up call for the UPA as the velocity of its slide has been threatening. The outcomes give NDA the clear edge with just 20 months left to the next general election. The second largest party in the Lok Sabha has been back in the reckoning as a party of governance regaining its hold over north India. However, that might be at the cost of its only government in the south.

Disapproving of the poll outcomes, the Congress, however, felt that there was enough time for it to regain people's support even if the results were considered right.

Appearing for a panel discussion on Centre Stage programme on Headlines Today, Congress MP and national spokesperson Manish Tewari said the nation was still 20 months away from the election and in politics even a week was a long time to make any prediction.

"The UPA is in the ninth year of its governance... we are still about 20 months before the polls. Even a week is a long time in politics... Presuming that the figures (of survey) are correct, we are still 20 months away from election," Tewari said.

Senior journalist and BJP MP Chandan Mitra said, "The mood of the nation is only half the story... The Congress and the UPA can go only downhill from here. People are reposing faith in the BJP and NDA. Cases of corruption and policy paralysis can only worsen the situation for the Congress."

Batting for a possible Third Front, BJD MP Jay Panda said that the "Others" were gaining more than double as compared to the meagre gains of the BJP and the NDA. He said there were many regional leaders and governments who were showing the real progress.

"The regional parties cannot be marginalised. Your survey results of this year and last year that the Others have been consistently gaining," Panda said.

Slamming the UPA regime, social activist and former IPS officer Kiran Bedi said, "I think the results (of survey) are perfect picture of the public perception. This survey is a subtle notice to the government. The survey is matching the public perception."

India Today Group editorial director M.J. Akbar said that the survey was conducted about six weeks ago, when the Assam had not witnessed large scale violence. So the possible mood against the ruling party did not reflect in the opinion poll.

Defending the survey outcomes, he said the survey was not conducted by India Today, but by Nielsen on behalf of the popular magazine. He said the opinion poll clearly showed that the "margin of goodwill of the ruling party is diminishing".

On the question of Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi again emerging as the most popular leader to become the next prime minister, Akbar said people thought that he could revive the economy.

Asked about the fall in the popularity of Modi in the consecutive polls, however, Mitra said, "I don't think that his popularity is decreasing... But we will have to wait till the BJP selects its leader."

Tewari, however, said that the revolt in Gujarat BJP, headed by former chief minister Keshubhai Patel, was a clear indication of the decline in his popularity.

Akbar, however, said that the next prime minister might not be the one projected by parties or alliances, but "the next prime minister will be created by circumstances". "Indian politics is very volatile and coalition politics is even more volatile," he said.

On Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, who emerged as the most popular non-Congress, non-BJP leader for the prime minister's post after the next general election, ruling himself out for the post, Akbar said, "Mr Nitish Kumar is a modest man so he says so. He will not do the same when the opportunity comes."

On Congress general secretary Rahul Gandhi finishing a distant second as the most popular face for next prime minister after Modi, Bedi said, "Rahul Gandhi had a chance to win over the nation by coming to Ramlila Maidan on December 28 and making an announcement that the Congress would make a strong Lokpal. However, he lost the chance."