2012 policy report card: Energy forecast

Climate change: President Barack Obama’s green base will look to him to lead on climate change in his second term. Even without major action by Congress, environmentalists hope the Environmental Protection Agency will quickly finalize climate regulations for new power plants and then propose regulations for existing plants, which could dramatically reduce emissions from coal-fired power.

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Outlook: Any significant action will probably have to come from the executive branch. And a carbon tax is unlikely.

Keystone: Obama is expected to make a decision at the beginning of 2013 on the controversial Keystone XL oil pipeline, which would allow crude from the Canadian oil sands to flow to refineries on the Texas Gulf Coast. Environmentalists say the huge amounts of carbon that would be released from tapping the oil sands pose a dire threat to the planet. But the project’s supporters want Obama to follow through on his pledges of an “all of the above” energy policy.

Outlook: Obama’s decision will do much to define his environmental legacy.

Energy efficiency: There’s little Congress can agree on when it comes to energy, but observers think energy-efficiency legislation is one cause that can get bipartisan support. One vehicle is a bill by Sens. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) and Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) that includes beefed-up standards for buildings and appliances and a revolving loan fund to improve manufacturing efficiency.

Outlook: Lawmakers from both parties will be eager to show they can actually get something done.

FIVE KEY PLAYERS TO WATCH

Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) will take over as chairman of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee in the next Congress, replacing the retiring Sen. Jeff Bingaman (D-N.M.). Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle are looking to Wyden to find areas of common ground and push bipartisan energy legislation.

Greens worked hard to get Rep. Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.) elected to Bingaman’s Senate seat, and they are hoping he’ll be one of the most prominent voices in the upper chamber when it comes to energy and environmental issues.

Republican Rep. Lee Terry is certain to be a top voice on the House Energy and Commerce Committee on issues like natural gas and the Keystone XL pipeline, which would cross through his home state of Nebraska.

Climate activist Bill McKibben has emerged as one of the most outspoken voices in the environmental community and has at times been a vocal critic of the Obama administration. He organized last year’s mass sit-ins that helped prod the president to postpone his decision on Keystone.

New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg endorsed Obama after Hurricane Sandy, citing expectations that the president will deal with climate change. Will he push the president to follow through?