Marine Weather and TidesAltmar, NY

Version 3.4

What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:04AM

Sunset 4:39PM

Monday November 19, 2018 6:39 PM EST (23:39 UTC)

Moonrise 3:07PM

Moonset 2:44AM

Illumination 90%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

LOZ044 Expires:201811192215;;541425
FZUS51 KBUF 191438
NSHBUF
Nearshore Marine Forecast
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
938 AM EST Mon Nov 19 2018
For waters within five nautical miles of shore
Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest
1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of
the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
LOZ043-044-192215-

Synopsis
Light snow toward the pennsylvania state line associated with a weak
area of low pressure moving by to the south of the region will taper
off by late this evening. Otherwise the rest of the area will be
mainly dry through much of the overnight. A pair of clipper systems
will then bring a few rounds of snow showers late tonight through
Wednesday, with some lake effect snow east and southeast of the
lakes. Cold temperatures will last through thanksgiving before
warmer air arrives next weekend.

Near term through Tuesday
A weak and narrow ridge of high pressure will remain in place across
the lower great lakes, which will keep the bulk of the region dry
through most of tonight. The one exception is across the western
southern tier, specifically closer to the new york pennsylvania
border, where a weak wave of low pressure will continue to move ene
through pennsylvania to far southern new england tonight. Light snow
falling toward the pennsylvania state line will taper off by late
this evening, with an additional half to one inch possible,
especially across southeastern cattaraugus and allegany counties.

The remainder of the area will remain mainly dry through much of the
overnight. Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 20s
inland to around freezing toward the lake shores.

Meanwhile a mid level trough will begin to sharpen over the central
great lakes later tonight, and approach our region by early Tuesday
morning, with increasing deep moisture and large scale ascent. This
will support an increasing chance of snow showers across western new
york and the northcountry very late tonight. The best chance of snow
showers before daybreak will be east of lake erie with some lake
enhancement beginning as lake induced equilibrium levels rise to
near 9k feet by early Tuesday morning. Any accumulations will be
very light through daybreak Tuesday.

As a cold front moves through on Tuesday morning, snow showers will
overspread the area, with some slick road conditions possible across
western new york for the morning commute. Continued lake enhancement
will transition to lake effect Tuesday afternoon. Widespread snow of
around an inch is possible on Tuesday, with additional light snow
amounts from any lake effect. Aside from any minor areas of lake
effect, much of the area will dry out for Tuesday afternoon.

Temperatures will average some 10-15 degrees below average with
highs ranging from the upper 20s to lower 30s across the area.

Short term Tuesday night through Thursday night
An upper level low centered near hudson bay on Tuesday night will
move across quebec and to new brunswick province on Thursday.

Meanwhile a shortwave will pivot around the base of this trough,
with a clipper low expected to track from lake superior Tuesday
evening to new england on Wednesday. An arctic boundary associated
with this low will drop across our region on Wednesday. This will
result in some lake effect snow ahead of and behind the frontal
boundary, followed by the coldest conditions so far this season
Wednesday night through Thursday night.

There will likely be a period of lake effect snow ahead of this
clipper low, with some moderate snow accumulation possible.

Mesoscale guidance suggests a prefrontal snow band will develop
in the southwesterly flow ahead of the front late Tuesday night
and into Wednesday. Most 12z guidance now shows a briefly well
aligned flow which should tap into pre-frontal moisture. Off
lake erie, a band should develop near dunkirk Tuesday night and
lift northward to the buffalo metro area late Tuesday night
before dropping southward and weakening Wednesday morning. This
scenario will play out east of lake ontario also, but will
develop late Tuesday night and last through Wednesday morning.

Although brief, this does have the potential to result in
snowfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches which may require advisories.

One limiting factor is that the best lift will be at levels
below the zone for favorable dendritic snow growth. It should be
cold enough to support snow, but it probably will not be
terribly fluffy. There also uncertainty in the position and
timing of the band. As a result, no headlines will be issued on
this forecast package, but the amount of snow forecast was
increased.

The arctic front will drop across the region on Wednesday, which
will shift winds to the northwest. 850mb temperatures will plummet
to around -20c. The boundary may produce some snow showers, and
possibly a snow squall when the shortwave clips the north country.

There also will may be a brief lake response southeast of the lakes,
however this will be limited when drier air builds in behind the
system Wednesday night. The colder air will support a better
post- frontal fluff factor, but the combination of winds and dry
air suggests post frontal snow accumulation should remain below
advisory criteria.

Otherwise, the big weather story will simply be the cold temperatures.

Temperatures will plummet into the teens and single digits
Wednesday night, with gusty winds resulting in near to below
zero wind chills. Then highs on thanksgiving day will only be in
the teens to lower 20s which will be close to the coldest
thanksgiving maximum temperature on record. Arctic high pressure
over the area will result in a another very cold night. Those
with shopping plans for early Friday morning should be prepared
for temperatures in the teens and single digits, with some
below zero readings across the north country.

Long term Friday through Monday
An arctic high will move east into southern new england on Friday
allowing for a fair weather day. Although the day will start out on
the frigid side, as warm air advection kicks in, temperatures
will moderate into the upper 20s to mid 30s, perhaps near 40
degrees across far western new york.

The weekend continues to look unsettled with precipitation
chances increasing, but with milder temperatures. Upper level
trough will move slowly across the great lakes into the
northeast conus, eventually becoming negatively titled over the
area. Surface low over the carolinas will eventually push
toward new york and new england. Expecting mainly rain for
precipitation type, but cannot rule pockets of mixed
precipitation during the cooler overnight and early morning
periods. Highs should be mainly in the 40s over the weekend,
with overnight lows in the 30s.

Aviation 21z Monday through Saturday
Low stratus will continue to produce mainly MVFR ifr CIGS vsby
across the western southern tier through late this evening in light
snow, with MVFR ifr CIGS hanging on across the western southern tier
and possibly expanding into the western finger lakes through
tonight. The remainder of the area will stay mainly dry through much
of tonight, with mainlyVFR conditions prevailing through much of
tonight across the kiag-kbuf-kroc-kart terminal.

A few snow showers will develop late tonight as a trough approaches,
especially east of lake erie with some modest lake enhancement. This
will produce areas of ifr vsby and MVFR CIGS through mid to late
Tuesday morning. The remainder of the area will have a chance of
snow showers through midday Tuesday, with MVFR flight conditions
expected at all sites.

Outlook...

Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday... Areas of MVFR ifr in periods
of snow showers.

Thursday and Friday...VFR.

Saturday... MVFR or ifr as a system moves into or south of the
region.

Marine
Winds will be relatively light tonight through Tuesday morning.

A weak front will cross the eastern great lakes Tuesday, and this
may bring winds and waves to near small craft advisory levels on
lake ontario.

A stronger cold front will then cross the eastern great lakes
Wednesday. Latest guidance is a bit stronger, and may result in a
period of gales or strong small craft advisory conditions. A gale
watch was issued for lake ontario. The wind will last through
Wednesday night before high pressure builds into the eastern great
lakes Thursday with diminishing winds.

Weather Map and Satellite Images

(on/off) &nbspHelpWeather MapGOES Local Image of EDITNOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.Link to LoopOther links:
Northern PacificContential USFull GOES-East

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (18,4,5,8)

Disclaimer:The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.