Speech About Egyptian Democratization to the Arkansas Peace and Justice Coalition, January 12, 2013

Democratization in EgyptJanuary 12, 2013Thank
you for inviting me here tonight. It is a real honor to have received
this invitation, and be asked to speak in front of such a diverse group
of progressive activists. I
am excited about the chosen topic for tonight’s talk, but I also
realize its pitfalls. How do I summarize the high points of a Revolution
only two years old, but one that has more excitement, plot twists, and
drama than a novel by Tolstoy? I was lucky enough to live through the
Egyptian Revolution, and actually arrived in Egypt to teach at the
American University in Cairo on the first official day of the
Revolution, January 25, 2011. I stayed in that country until December
31st, at which point I returned to the US, and began teaching at the
Clinton School of Public Service. So
tonight, I am going to just briefly sketch a history of movement
towards democratization in Egypt over the past two years, and what I
believe are the concerns around those matters. Then, I want to invite
questions from the audience to fill in the gaps people are most
interested in. Demographically,
Egypt has significant economic potential. It is the most populous
country in the Arab world. It has the Nile River. It has strong ties to
both Africa and the Middle East and lies upon the mediterranean ocean.
It has significant natural gas reserves, and massive tourist potential.
It has a well developed manufacturing base, and some impressive
engineering, such as the Aswan dam. It is a diverse country with
approximately 90 percent of a Muslim population, ten percent Coptic
Christian, and the remaining population consisting of Bahais, and
traditionalists. Every shade of skin is represented in Egypt from the
blue eyes and blond hair of Alexandria, to the dusky tones of the
bedouin in the Sinai, and the rich dark skin of the Nubians in Upper
Egypt. So,
what is the current political situation in Egypt? As you know, an
enlightenment style revolution swept through Egypt two years ago. One
of the mottos of the revolution was “bread, equality and social
justice.” Hosni Mubarak, a US ally, and an authoritarian, oligarchic
leader was forced to leave power. Politically,
Mubarak was very beholden to the US. He was enormously corrupt. He had
emerged from the military and maintained strong ties with them. Under
Mubarak, business and the state became one in a manner a political
scientist might characterize as nearly fascist. In an interesting twist,
the military created its own business empire under his rule. Under
Mubarak, the poor became desperately poor. Illiteracy increased to
nearly 70 percent, and corruption was rife. Inequality increased
rapidly, and as the Revolution indicated, Mubarak and his cronies stole a
significant amount of the nation’s wealth under his rule. After
Mubarak left, the country was ruled for an extended period by the
military, known as the Supreme Council of Armed Forces, or SCAF.
Essentially, the country remained authoritarian in this period, but the
military was the leader, not Mubarak. Many viewed this as the death of
one head of a two-headed hydra, where the beast remained alive. One
head had been cut off yet the other head remained. The
conservative right and liberal left categories which categorize Europe
and perhaps the US simply do not fit well in Egypt. Rather, parties can
more easily be divided along a crucial axis: support for a secular
state, or support for a religious (Islamic) state. Another axis might be
support for human rights, democratic mechanisms, social justice and the
poor, or conversely support for large business, the military and an
authoritarian state. So to give an example, Mubarak was secular, but
pro-business and autocratic. The Muslim Brotherhood supports poverty
relief, but also leans towards an Islamist state. The Nour party
(Salafis) support a strong Islamist state and have no well thought out
views on most of the other issues. The opposition led in part by
Mohammed El Baradei, supports a secular state, the rights of women and
minorities, poverty reduction, and more democratic approaches. As
a point of clarification, being Muslim does not make one an Islamist,
or a radical or al qaeda. There are many practicing Muslims who prefer a
secular state. The threat, in my view, comes from the Salafis, or
fundamentalists, who wish to impose a Wahabi, Saudi style, stripped
down, and very strict version of Islam on Egypt. These are the people
who are destroying Sufi relics in Mali, and who terrorize Afghanistan as
the Taliban. Like Christianity, Islam has many voices, from the most
conservative, (Wahabi) to the most liberal, perhaps the Sufi, and a
whole spectrum in between. A
burst of optimism among the liberal secularists occurred as the nation
prepared for the first ever truly free parliamentary elections in the
Winter and Spring of 2012. However, after the dust had settled, the
first post-revolutionary Egyptian parliament had few women, and many
Islamists, some of them extreme. One good outcome of the parliamentary
election was that the liberals and secularists did better than expected,
capturing about 15 percent of the seats in the lower house. Given the
fact that the majority of liberal parties were formed after the
Revolution, I believe that was a strong showing. Late
in the spring, however, the sunshine of democracy dimmed as the
judiciary dismissed the lower house of parliament on technical grounds. In
June 2012, I returned to Egypt to the American University in Cairo to
work on my research. In mid June, an election took place between Ahmed
Shafiq, former prime minister under Mubarak and a military man, and
Mohammed Morsy, a well educated engineer, and prominent member of the
Muslim Brotherhood. Tensions ran very high, and matters were tense. It
appeared to be a Hobson’s Choice: on the one hand, Shafiq was resolutely
secular, but nonetheless had strong ties to the deposed regime. On the
other hand Mohammed Morsy was a revolutionary of sorts, but he was also
clearly an Islamist. It was really a choice between the devil and the
deep blue sea. As we know now, it was a tightly contested election, but
Morsy seems to have fairly won Egypt’s presidency. This
ushered in another strange interregnum with both democratic and
authoritarian elements. An Islamist was President, the judiciary had
been appointed by the old regime, and the freely elected parliament had
been dismissed. After only a few months in power, Morsy stunned the
world by trying to implement a power grab in late November 2012,
sparking outrage and massive protests across Egypt. Egypt’s
New Constitution was approved by referendum in December, and was signed
into law by President Mohamed Morsy on December 26, 2012. Human Rights
Watch states that the draft constitution provides for basic protections
against arbitrary dentention and torture and for some economic rights.
However, it fails to end military trials of civilians or protect freedom
of expression and religion. One positive development is that the final
draft does not require strict adherence to sharia with regard to women's
rights (former article 68 has been removed). However, sex or gender is
not a grounds for prohibiting discrimination in the approved version,
and potentially interferes with women's choices about work and family. Also,
in the period between Christmas and New Years, more developments
occurred. In accordance with the recently passed Constitution, eight
judges have been dismissed from the Supreme Constitutional Court, one of
whom was the first Egyptian woman to hold a post in the judiciary.
Activists believe this dismissal violates the separation of powers, and
shows that the judiciary is increasingly under attack. The
dispute about the Constitution, which was largely viewed as drafted by
Islamists, has had a positive side effect of bringing the opposition
together. The new opposition coalition is called the National Salvation
Front. This group includes Mohamed El Baradei, the Social Democratic
Party (a European style left democratic group), The Free Egyptians (A
free market group which has secular and coptic membership) and a variety
of socialist, communist, and secular groups. All
legislative power now rests with the upper house, the Shura. A draft
law on elections has been proposed by the Egyptian Shura council. This
law is being put in place to plan for a new round of parliamentary
elections scheduled for April. The National Council of Women,
however,has said the draft does not allow proper representation of
women in Parliament, nor does it represent the capabilities, potential
and ambitions of women after the January 25th revolution. So,
in summary, there is good news and bad news about democratization in
Egypt. Egypt has made remarkable, and bold strides. It is impressive
that elections were held. They were not completely free and fair, but
neither were they totally rigged. The fact that the Islamists won is
encouraging in the sense that the electorate did elect a completely
different group into power than held power during the Mubarak
government. The bad news is that the Islamists are not progressive, nor
particularly interested in democratic institutions, and they seem to be
consolidating their grip on power. As
we have seen, two years into the Revolution, there is still a lot of
work to still be done. That is, in and of itself, not a bad thing.
Please remember that the French Revolution took nearly twenty years to
complete. Many countries that have gone through democratic transitions
recently, including Ghana, Kenya, and South Africa, often experienced
long periods of partial transition. Thus, it would be realistic to
assume that Egypt has a good ten to twenty years ahead of it before the
democratic transition is complete.What
can American activists do to support democracy in Egypt? We can send
support and training to the emerging progressive parties, such as the
National Salvation Front, and urge the American government to do the
same. We can also educate our fellow Americans that there are different
kinds of Islam, most of which are moderate, and not affilated with al qaeda.
We can also encourage support for the rule of law, and democratic
processes. The best idea is to support Egyptian based NGOs doing work in
these areas.