Trump is now seen to have a better chance of winning the presidency, than the Republicans retaining the Senate. They have him at between 44% and 48% probability (depending on model) to win the presidency. This is the highest he has been apart from the convention bounce.

adaman

I’m still hoping the big two both crash and burn so Gary Johnson can come down the middle. He is on every ballot. Also his policy of zero income and corporate tax replaced with a 28% consumption tax, YES PLEASE!!!

ross411

I heard something interesting. That upwards of 70% of the vote actually goes to independents (or some similar number) and the remainder is between democrat and republican. Anyone know what the real numbers are?

Manolo

dave_c_

If (and this is very generous odds), only 5 percent of the charges of corruption against Clinton and the Clinton foundation are true, surely that ought to be enough for DPF and people who continue to appear beostted by her, to rethink their ethics.

tom hunter

Ha! Eleven comments – and none of the biggest Trump supporters are here. It’s almost as if they think the Senate doesn’t matter a shit.

WRT these races, it was not so long ago that Ohio and Florida were certainties for the Democrats. While Illinois is dead for sure, things are getting tough out there for the Democrats, and one guy argues that it might be due to the greatest domestic policy clusterfuck of recent times – Obamacare:

The dislocation of Obamacare consumers in many more states may have an even worse impact on Democrats. Voters in almost all key battleground states have at least one insurer pulling out of the exchanges, and in some cases more. Ohio will lose two insurers in every county, which will force consumers to find new policies at ever-higher prices.

Arizona, where John McCain looked vulnerable, will lose one insurer in every county, and one county won’t have any options in the Obamacare exchange. In four other key states for Senate control, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation, more than half of all counties will lose at least one insurer: Florida, North Carolina, Colorado, and Wisconsin.

Don’t think these failings have escaped voters’ attention, either. A Morning Consult poll released this week shows far more people have experienced cost increases in every phase of health care than have seen reductions over the past year. Forty-three percent have had increases in premiums, while only 8 percent have saved money.

Obamacare was the prime reason the Democrats came within a whisker of losing the Senate in 2010 – having started with a huge lead – and was almost certainly the reason they got reamed in 2014. The Democrats keep hoping that they’re going to escape this but I don’t think so…