Cowboys vs. Patriots: 5 things to watch

Published 8:32 pm, Saturday, October 15, 2011

1. OFFENSIVE FIREWORKS: The Patriots are second in the league in scoring, averaging 33 points per game, and first in total offense, averaging nearly 500 yards. The Cowboys are 12th in scoring average (24.8 points) and sixth in total offense (417.6 yards).

With speedy wide receiver Miles Austin back from a hamstring injury that forced him to sit out the last two games, Dallas should be able to stretch the field against the New England defense, which is last in the league overall (433.0 yards) and last against the pass (326.6 yards).

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The Patriots have a shot at tying the record of 14 straight 30-point games set by the St. Louis Rams' “Greatest Show on Turf” team in 1999-2000. Tom Brady ranks first in the AFC in passing and is on pace to throw for 5,997 yards, which would shatter Dan Marino's 27-year-old, single-season record of 5,084.

Despite his erratic play, Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo stands ninth in the league in passing with a 92.9 rating and is on pace to throw for 5,091 yards.

Bottom line: Bet the over.

2. BRADY VS. RYAN: Film study of the Patriots often proves a waste of time for opponents because of Bill Belichick's insistence that the offense and defense deviate from recent tendencies. Even if it starts a game sporting alignments it featured the week before, New England often shifts into a surprise look.

To counteract Belichick's sleight of hand, the Cowboys must be quick to adjust. But there will also be pressure on Brady to react to the exotic looks deployed by Dallas defensive coordinator Rob Ryan, whose Cleveland Browns defense was the last to hold the Patriots below 30 points in a 34-14 win last November.

Sporting a variety of coverages cooked up by Ryan, the Browns limited Brady to 226 yards, a big reason they converted just 3 of 11 third-down attempts.

One thing Ryan is sure to do is move linebacker DeMarcus Ware around, looking for matchups to exploit and ways to avoid double teams.

“You're not ever sure exactly where he's going to be,” Belichick said of Ware. “That's a big challenge. ... He comes up the middle, he comes outside. He's a tough matchup problem.”

Ware, the 2010 NFL sack champion with 151/2, is tied for fourth in the league in sacks with five. He loves playing for Ryan, who has excelled so far at positioning Ware to get single coverage on passing downs.

3. TIGHT END TANGO: Cowboys linebacker Sean Lee has been outstanding in coverage in his brief NFL career and has four interceptions in his last eight games.

Dallas will need him to be at his best today because Brady loves to go to tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, who have already combined for 58 catches and seven touchdowns.

“I think they're the best combination of tight ends in the league,” Cowboys cornerback Orlando Scandrick said. “They show up a ton.”

Operating out of the spread formation, the 6-foot-6, 265-pound Gronkowski and the 6-1, 245-pound Hernandez create matchup problems for smaller cornerbacks and slower linebackers. If a safety is assigned to shadow them, Brady takes advantage by targeting wide receivers Wes Welker and Deion Branch.

Fortunately for the Cowboys, Lee has the speed and the size (6-2, 242) to stick with either tight end. Both of his interceptions this season came while he was covering tight ends. What's in doubt is whether aging linebackers Keith Brooking and Bradie James can pull their weight.

4. ROMO GOING DEEP: Austin picked a great week to return from the hamstring injury that forced him to sit out the last two games. No team has surrendered more pass plays of 20 yards or more this season than New England's 30.

Those numbers, however, mean little to Romo, who pointed out that the Patriots limited Mark Sanchez to 166 passing yards in a 30-21 win over the Jets last week.

“I don't know that that's who they are,” Romo said of New England's last-place defensive ranking. “I think they're really a good defensive unit that's just coming into their own lately. They played well last week. You can tell they're well-coached.”

Still, it would be a shock if Romo doesn't take a few deep shots against a suspect secondary. Even if he can't connect with Austin, it would loosen things up underneath for tight end Jason Witten.

5. PATRIOTS' GROUND GAME: It isn't just Brady's strong and accurate right arm that has the Cowboys' attention. They're also concerned with the powerful legs of running back BenJarvus Green-Ellis.

Bolstered by Green-Ellis' 27-carry, 136-yard, two-touchdown effort against the Jets, the Patriots own the sixth-best run game in the league, averaging 128.6 yards per game. But the going won't be easy against the Cowboys, who are first in the league in rush defense (61.8 yards).

“We've got to make them one-dimensional,” James said. “That's what we say every week. We have to control the running game, because if we don't control the running game, it becomes a two-headed monster.

“They came out last week and just decided to run the ball. You've got to be on top of everything when you're playing against these guys.”

Prediction

There are more than a few reasons to believe the Cowboys could be primed to pull off the upset. Dallas is coming off its bye week, so it's healthy and presumably well prepared. The Patriots are due for a letdown after a hard-fought win over a division rival.

In Ryan, the Cowboys have a defensive coordinator who knows how to stymie Brady. Dallas also knows a win today would give it some cachet in the pedestrian NFC East.

But can you trust the erratic Romo against a Belichick defense? Are you willing to have faith that the Dallas secondary will get the best of Brady, who hasn't lost a regular-season home game since 2006?