Copyright Notice

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, distributed, or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying, recording, or other electronic or mechanical methods, without the prior written permission of the author, except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical reviews and certain other non-commercial uses permitted by copyright law. For permission requests, write to the author, at the address below.

Sakmongkol ak 47

ariff.sabri@gmail.com

Thursday, 13 September 2012

When addressing
the society of Pahang born in Kuala Lumpur, Our Dear Leader Najib declared that Pahang must be
100% behind BN. Its now our Dear Leader as his posters and that of his spouse are sacred ground. Those that belonged to others are fair game. Defile and do whatever to posters belonging others, thats ok. Lets see how things fare in the biggest state in peninsula. it’s a matter of pride when it comes to Pahang as the PM comes
from the state. He is MP for Pekan, since 1976 when he took over after his late
father. But what else can he say other than displaying bravado to inspire his
troops? He had to forfeit the inconvenient truth. He knows the numbers.

In 2008, results for selected parliamentary areas are as
follows:-

Table 1

Parliament
seat

Actual

voters

BN

PR

% opposition

Racial structure

%age

M

NM

1

CAMERON
HLANDS

16400

9164

6047

37

43

57

2

RAUB

34000

18078

15326

45

49

51

3

KUALA LIPIS

21646

12611

8474

39

74

26

4

JERANTUT

37969

19543

17597

46

81

19

5

TEMERLOH

41245

21381

18940

46

63

37

6

INDERA MAHKOTA

39287

18796

19823

50

65

35

7

KUANTAN

35593

16572

18398

52

60

40

8

PAYA BESAR

30887

19355

10852

35

80

20

9

KUALA KRAU

27544

16165

10900

40

90

9

10

BENTONG

39004

25134

12585

32

43

56

11

BERA

33064

18051

14230

43

61

38

M=Malay;
NM=Non-Malay

Column 6
shows the share of popular votes obtained by PR. PR made good showing in
Raub(45%), Jerantut(46%), Temerloh(46%), Indera Mahkota(50%), Kuantan(52%) and
Bera(43%). Based on 2008 performance, 6 seats showed great promise for PR. They won
in Kuantan and Indera Mahkota(both through PKR).

There are a
few peculiar features shown by Pahang and which are capable of being
generalized.

(1)Areas with
a large Malay population do not necessarily lead to easy wins for BN. Jerantut,
Temerloh, Indera Mahkota and Kuantan all have majority Malay voting
populations. But in each of these areas, PR secured 46-52% of the votes. PR got
40% votes in Kuala Krau and 43% in Bera.

(2)It means
Malays are more discerning and are ready to evaluate their voting preference in
terms of the costs and benefits.

(3)Jerantut in
particular with a population of 81% Malay voters saw PR took home 46% of the
votes.

(4)As a rule,
if PR puts up a Malay candidate in these areas, the Malay votes are easily
split 50:50

How stable was
the vote swing to the opposition? Very often, the gains made by PR were dismissed
as protest votes. They probably were but no one is sure how much of the swing
to the opposition in 2008 was done in the name of protest. They can’t all be
protest votes and to think they were, would be a big mistake. It would also be
a mistake to assume that they are easily retaken.

BN had the
power of incumbency. Logically, with the amount of resources applied and having
the power of incumbency, one would think, BN would have won big. But people
still swung to the opposition. How can one explain that?

Their swing
can only be attributed to a choice being made on the basis of conviction and
belief. People believed in the PR and so made the swing. This type of voting
preference is not easily overturned. On the other hand, votes secured through vote
buying, intimidation, deception are fickle and can be retaken. So it is not
open for BN to dismiss the vote swing to the opposition in 2008 as mere protest
votes.It may even be the case that more votes will go to the opposition.

I have
added Bentong in the analysis. Bentong has a sizeable non-Malay population
which has shown a marked preference for PR especially for DAP. The Health
Minister must rethink of staying in Bentong. 43% of the population is Malay and
56% Chinese. If 80% of non-Malays vote opposition while the Malay vote switches
by 30%, Leow is gone. Rumors are circulating in the market that he wants to
move back to Melaka where he comes from and replace Fong Chan Onn. BN won
marginally in 3 out of 4 state seats in Bentong( Sabai, Bilut and Ketari). This
time around I predict BN will lose the 3 state seats.

The best candidate
to put up in Bentong would be non-Malay who is also acceptable to Malays. I can’t
think of anyone more qualified that Leong Ngah Ngah- the indomitable ADUN from
Triang. Or a Malay acceptable to the non-Malays.

In 2008,
the vote swing to the opposition was around 9%. Let’s allow a regain of 5% by BN.
that is already a generous concession. That will still leave about 4% vote
swing remaining with the opposition. This of course assumes, PR have done nothing
these years when they made great strides and where they won. What did they give? What they lacked in
giving in terms of material, they gave in the form of better and more committed
service. PR has also contributed to raising general awareness. BN on the other
hand does a number of things- paying for votes, bringing development and so
forth, daily dosages of propaganda through all the marketing means of the MSM.

The quality
of votes is different. The vote for PR is stable while that of BN is fickle. It
would also be unrealistic to assume, BN has regained completely from lost
ground. Najib for example is busy marketing his own personal brand rather than improving
the discredited brands of UMNO and BN. the Najib factor isn’t strong enough to
resuscitate UMNO and BN. it’s even dangerous to rely on the Najib factor especially
when Najib becomes the subject of greater scrutiny.

What does Table
1 tell us? Using the above table, PR has got clear wins in Indera Mahkota
and in Kuantan. It made credible gains in Raub(45%) Jerantut(46%), Termerloh(46%)
and Bera(43%). Which means, PR can add 4 more seats assuming the current vote
swing remains.

Suppose
now, we introduce the factor of a 4% swing for PR. The above table becomes:-

Table 2

Parliament seat

current% PR

Vote swing

4%

Racial structure

M

NM

Cameron Hlands

37

41

43

57

Raub

45

49

49

51

Kuala Lipis

39

44

74

26

jerantut

46

50

81

19

temerloh

46

50

63

37

Indera
mahkota

50

54

65

35

kuantan

52

56

60

40

Paya besar

35

39

80

20

Kuala Krau

40

44

90

9

Bentong

32

36

43

56

Bera

43

47

61

38

With a 4%
vote swing with them, PR goes away with wins in Jerantut, Temerloh, Indera
Mahkota and Kuantan and Raub. Conservatively,
with a simple vote swing of 4%, PR wins in 5 parliamentary seats. It is almost
there in Bera.

Let’s
introduce the race factor now:-

(1)Malay votes
are split 50:50

(2)Non Malay
votes- 80% goes to PR.

Table 3

PARLIAMENT SEAT

% PR

Racial
structure

Malay 50:50

NM= 80% for
PR

Scenario # 1

Probable scenario

With 4%
swing

M

NM

M

NM

Deduct 5%

CAMERON
HLANDS

41

43

57

21

45

66

61

RAUB

49

49

51

24

40

64

59

KUALA LIPIS

44

74

26

37

20

57

52

JERANTUT

50

81

19

40

15

55

50

TEMERLOH

50

63

37

31

29

60

55

INDERA MAHKOTA

54

65

35

32

28

60

55

KUANTAN

56

60

40

30

32

62

57

PAYA BESAR

39

80

20

40

16

56

51

Look at the
last column in the above Table 3. With racial factoring, PR can win up
to 8 seats in Pahang. With 4% vote swing without racial factoring, PR can win 4
seats. PR can take

28
comments:

Najib is not a well-liked brand and as a matter of fact, coupled together with the image of him being ridden by Rosmah (not truly sure if it's a pun), it is a most disgusting brand ever created by UMNO second only to TDM and his heir, the brainless (and hair-less)Mukhriz. Furthermore with Mahathir unwelcome appearances in the MSM (unwelcome by the public) and combined with his overbearing persona, UMNO might even begin to crack from within and possibly implode.

Pundits may have their arguments about the existence of safe states of UMNO the likes of pahang or Johor or even maybe Melaka (right now Ali rustam is not very popular) but the real factor in Malaysian politics is time and time is not siding with UMNO. With time (more delay by Najib on the GE) on the side of PR and the people, more revelation about the evil deeds of UMNO can surface and with it the greater the shift in the voter's sentiment and loathing. Furthermore, UMNO had all the time in the world to do good or even to be somewhat good at governing Malaysia but history have shown us that the past 3 decades, UMNO is destroying Malaysia and worse, stolen its wealth at the same time. And that fact cannot be denied by Najib and UMNO (and especially not by Mahathir). In my personal opinion and observation, to date there are no safe state for UMNO, ONLY safe seats and that's the real fear of Najib and UMNO.

They might win some seats easily but gaining a state to govern will be very hard and daunting and for UMNO who had it easy in all previous election it's a new and scary experience. An experience which many in UMNO would not want to taste and many of them will resort to defecation... err.. defection and shifting allegiance, just to feel safe and secure. After all, for people who have never tasted defeat, experiencing one will be so frightening that they would rather choose anything else over it even to the point of betraying UMNO. But then again, allegiance in UMNO was never really about loyalty, patriotism and religion. It's all about the money and with defeat, the money will run out. The contracts and tender will have to be fought for and day to day life will be a struggle. UMNO by then will lose its shine and only those the likes of Ibrahim Ali, Mahathir and Kimma will remain simply because they are not accepted by anyone else or anything else.

And that is why mahathir is right to say that if and when PR rule the country, they will rule forever. The reason is simple, UMNO will no longer exist and PR will never remain a coalition of 3 parties but a coalition of parties that have the support from the majority of Malaysian. In the future without UMNO, everyone can form an association, a coalition or a party and it will truly be a party of the people, a coalition of the people and the association of the people, unlike what it is now which is the party of the privileged, the coalition of cronies and association of the "atasan" elite. PR by then will not be Pakatan rakyat BUT more to the point "People's Rights" (to vote and to choose freely)!

Now, as much as I consider myself an opposition sympathizer, it really cuts deep within me to see Saifuddin Abdullah dropped. I'm not sure what you think of him Dato, but could you provide more details regarding this? If he were to contest within my area, I would vote for him at the drop of a hat; so it really saddens me to see a voice of reason in UMNO being marginalized, yet again. For all the 'good news' in the post you've put up, surely this is a tragedy. Perhaps I'll ask him when he comes to give a talk in Melbourne next week.

I've followed your articles for quite some time now. But, this is the first time leaving a comment.

Your article today is very interesting indeed. Just that your comments on the analysis of Table 2 (without racial factoring) suggest that Raub will go to PR (although PR votes is 49%). On the other hand you correctly pointed out that PR will win 4 Parliamentary seats for the analysis on Table 3 (with and without racial factoring).

I would eagerly look forward to your analysis on the state seats. And if possible, would appreciate if you could also look into other states as well ~ perhaps Selangor and Perak.

Good and interesting analysis. However, there are other factors that is seriously not considered, which I hope you can factor in as well.

1. WINNABLE CANDIDATES....too many old geriatrics jostling for THAT category with total 'winnable' unknowns from Najib's hat. Understand that Rosmah even has her own list of 'winnable candidates'. This is THE first major hurdle to cross by Najib.

2. MONEY POLITICS......how much will Najib spend? To dump the old 'winnable candidate(s)', he has to stuff a lot of cash into their bank accounts to compensate them for future lose of income for not being selected. The 'unknown winnable candidate(s)' will be generally inexperienced and low on election funds. So Najib has to fork out more cash to help this new set of 'winnable' characters win. More FGV in the pipeline for this???

3. INSTANT CITIZENS.........this is Najib's trump card. The EC and NRD has all the database. And are on standby to manipulate on the drop of a dime. He has already announced LOUDLY that he intends to use HIS constituency's postal votes, with its recent inclusion. So marginal areas is where this impact will be the greatest. Afterall, Najib used govt funds to acquire such large numbers of instant citizen tools purely for this purpose.

4. THE TDM FACTOR.......everybody who is not a spastic knows that TDM has been exerting his geriatric influence on UMNO. He is the only person in Malaysia that the mainstream media will publish his comments from his blog. TDM is fearful for his life and legacy. Hence his heavy involvement in all things UMNO and GE13. TDM still have a lot of old geriatrics in the cabinet which he placed there eons ago to do his bidding. And doing his bidding, they are. For example, we have an idiot who is not a govt official to declare that GE13 will be held after CNY next year. Who is IA? What is his standing in govt? Why is the media giving him incredible airtime? So far, IA is the absolute best disposable quasi-politician deployed by TDM and gang. And the beauty is, he doesnt know it at all.

However, if the opposition continues on its path thus far, the sheer will of the people of Malaysia should ensure that the BN govt is toppled in the next GE. The opposition must push for more high profile exposes AND clearly defined policies affecting our beloved country. So, perhaps you can factor the above into your analysis to further reflect the realities on the ground with your absolutely marvelous analysis and reports.

UMNO-MCA-BN will lose heavily in the next General Election in Kuantan and Raub (parliamentary seats as well as ADUN seats).

It will be payback time from the rakyat of all ethnic groups, socio-economic classes, genders, ages, religious beliefs, for callously approving industrial projects that threaten or already affect the health and economic well-being of the people of Kuantan and Raub.

(The people of nearby electoral districts in S. Terengganu will do the same too).

I was in Kemaman a few days ago and had breakfast at the famous Hai Peng coffeeshop. There were many local Malays there and some were chatting very loudly about politics. One was very vocal and talking loudly..Jahanam Umno yang kuat rasuah.Later I visit my customers and chit-chat after business was completed."Bang..apakah sentiment sekarang"...jawapan.."kuat nak perubahan"

DATO-- well written article>> the MALAY community are now more dis cerning as they have been cheated n conned too long together with the non malays malaysians,, this act of cheating n plundering need to be stopped .. hope must be given to all citizens who desired real change,, citizens interests must come first n corruption must stopped now<< bring in change all malaysians n set anew HOPE FOR ALL

With the two army camps at Batu 9 and Batu 10, not only Najib but any BN canditate will win. Najib already lost the seat in 1999 but was saved by postal votes that came from God knows where. The re-delienation of the Pekan constituency post 1999 election gives Najib/BN with additional 14,000 votes from the army.

PR should concentrate on other constituencies. Let Najib wins Pekan and become Opposition Leader, that is if BN still wants him to lead.......

whoa! najib dares drop saifuddin???on what excuse? not winnable???or issit gonna be a surprise where saifuddin is yanked away from federal - only to be put in as candidate for the next pahang mb???hmmmmm...

Dato Sak, I think you deliberately left out the aftermath when the share price dip below the offer price.Pahang is felda territory and ANAK has done a wonderful job in exposing the scam @ ground zero. Dato',I think the perfect storm will happen and all our prayers will be answered.Salam.

It would be good to win 8 parliamentary seats on the basis of your analysis BUT these are the factors that you need to consider too that are not favorables to PR in Pahang in my view:

1.Past performace factor. Overall i anticipate BN will win in Pahang be it DUN and Parliament from past performances especially so for DUN because Pahang has always been a BN turf.

2. Najib the Pahang PM possible will be a strong branding factor for Pahang voters to vote for BN victory.

3.The Felda recent listing will have an impact on settlers voting preference in favour of BN for all the goodies even if price go below IPO.

4.DSAI factor.The Malays do not look at DSAI/PKR favorabably now unlike 2008 as most of his sympathisers will try to avoid PKR and will go for PAS instead.Indera Mahkota and Kuantan being the only two seats secured would be better contested by other PR candidates from PAS than PKR.PKR will be the weak link in PR.

5.Pahang chinese are different chinese breeds unlike the urban chinese in KL and Penang who will vote for PR for a possible change.Do not underestimate Bentong and Raub.These are held by top MCA leaders.They too have their supporters and are chinese ministers in the government.

Congratulations!Your blog is attracting MCA propagandists who claim to know Pahang and its Chinese voters well.

Well, I'm Kuantan-born and I go back there regularly. I can tell the readers of this blog that the people of Kuantan of all ethnic groups are up in arms over the Lynas project. YB Fuziah Salleh of PKR, who has so courageously and persistently battled against Lynas, is very popular and is unbeatable politically in Kuantan. I predict that she will garner a super-majority of votes in the next GE due to the stubborn foolishness of the UMNO-MCA-BN politicians of Pahang.

Politicians are by nature optimistic, and they need to convey this sense of hope to the electorate. So political forecasts by political parties and politicians tend to be rosy. Obama and Romney both think they can win. But we know that when the counting stops on November 6, there will only be one winner.

And so would be the case in Malaysia in our yet unknown GE13. I do hope it would turn out like you predict in Table 3, at least for Pahang, where with a 50/50 Malay vote split coupled with a 80/20 Chinese vote split PR will sweep all seats. But will they? Will there be a 50/50 Malay split?

What factors might cause these vote splits? A Merdeka Centre survey done in 2008 just prior to GE12 said these factors would have an impact on that election:inflation, shortage of goods, fuel subsidies, rising crime, majority government, mismanagement, corruption, the demand for free and fair, racial equality especially as highlighted by HINDRAF, Internal Security Act detainees, the case surrounding the Lingam Video Clip and Anwar Ibrahim.What has changed since 2008? There is little inflation (excepting house price inflation), no talk about fuel subsidies, HINDRAF has lost its influence and Anwar is out of jail. These are the non-issues. But crime is up, BERSIH is stronger, polls cheating is being highlighted and is real, corruption in high places are being discovered on a daily basis, cronyism is alive and thriving, the Indians are still unhappy but less so because Najib has mollified them by visiting Batu Caves.

But some new things that were never there in 2008 have surfaced. First is the Scorpean submarine (pardon the pun) and the RM430 million bribe, then there is Ms Rosmah and the diamond ring and Birkin handbags, the ghost of Altantulya, Sharizat and the RM250 million NFC cowgate, police brutality in the April Bersih march, defections in Sabah, PERKASA, UMNO infighting, election bribery especially the RM15,000 to Felda settlers and FGV IPO. Most significantly PR has shown that it can rule, and rule well as they have shown in Selangor and Penang. Further PR parties have demonstrated that they can work effectively together in equality unlike in BN where UMNO is everything and the other parties are nothing more than wallflowers. Finally, PAS has changed, less ideologue and much more pragmatic.

So in essence the factors favouring PR have increased and are more significant. BN is on the back foot. This will result is a more pronounced swing of Chinese votes to PR because PAS is now a benign force, and they sense that this is the best time for a change of government. As for the Malays, I don’t have a finger on their pulse. There is some swing to PR in urban seats but this will simply increase the large majorities already enjoyed by PR. It is the swing in the rural and semi-rural seats that is important. It is hard to judge this because of 3 primary factors. First there is this massive vote buying. Second there will be cheating using foreigners and police and army votes. Third, the Malays must feel comfortable with the idea that their future will be brighter under a PR government, and that they will not lose political control because the a PR government is still a Malay-led one. Will all this mean 50/50?

Dato Sak, get ready to stand as DAP candidate for Bentong or Raub. We are looking at you as the next DAP MP. BUTU PLEASE DON'T SELL US OUT. KATAKAN KEPADEA KAMI KALAU YOU KELUAR PARTI MASUK UMNO SEMULA ATAS APA SEBAB PUN, YOU AKAN SUNAT KALI KEDUA. BOLEH? I and tahousands of others will VOTE U.