States in play: 2014's top governor races

The 2014 ballot includes 36 governors races, the results of which could be a strong indicator of the national mood heading into the next presidential contest.

Democrats say that the GOP governors elected in 2010 were a product of that year’s tea party wave and, now that the trend has receded and they’re up for reelection, they don’t belong in statewide office. Republican governors argue that, unlike their congressional counterparts, they’re the only ones in the country enacting real reforms and getting things done.

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2014: Races, candidates to watch

Which argument will win in which state? Here are POLITICO’s 10 key governors races to watch:

1. Florida

Florida always was going to be an expensive, nasty slugfest: incumbent GOP Gov. Rick Scott, who’s dealt with low approval ratings throughout his term, is a wealthy former businessman who was able to pour his vast personal wealth into the 2010 race and will undoubtedly do the same in 2014.

What makes this perhaps the marquee gubernatorial race of the year is his opponent, former Gov. Charlie Crist.

Crist is still a major player in Florida politics and will likely be able to raise the kind of money necessary to tackle Scott. But as a GOP politician who ran for Senate in 2010 as an independent and then made the full switch to the Democratic Party, Crist has his fair share of political baggage, and it’s unlikely the Republicans will let him or voters forget it.

2. Pennsylvania

Republican Tom Corbett is arguably the most vulnerable incumbent governor in the country — he tops national Democrats’ list of 2014 targets and has consistently had approval ratings in the 20s and low 30s.

But before anyone takes him on in the general, the Democratic primary could be just as interesting: No fewer than eight candidates have entered that contest thus far, including Rep. Allyson Schwartz, state Treasurer Rob McCord, businessman Tom Wolf and former state environmental protection director Katie McGinty. The crowded field, plus Wolf’s pledge to spend $10 million on the race, make it a likely free-for-all this spring.

Corbett’s hope is that whichever Democrat faces him in the general election will be bruised and broke enough that he can have the advantage, despite his low popularity in the state. With the Corbett team’s stated fundraising goal of $30 million, the general election is bound to be epically nasty.

3. Maine

Paul LePage is another blue-state Republican governor that Democrats are hoping to unseat. He, like Corbett, has received consistently low approval ratings throughout his time in office. He’s also been accused of a string of fairly offensive gaffes this summer, including allegedly saying that the president hates white people and that a political opponent was “giv[ing] it to the people without Vaseline.”

LePage is facing Rep. Mike Michaud, national Democrats’ top recruit in the race, and independent candidate Eliot Cutler. Recent polling shows Michaud narrowly in the lead, but Cutler’s presence complicates things: All LePage needs to win reelection is a plurality of voters. If Michaud and Cutler split the state’s sizeable Democratic and independent voting populations — like in 2010, when LePage benefited from a three-way race — the incumbent might just squeak through to a second term.

4. Michigan

Gov. Rick Snyder is another Republican governor elected in 2010 that Democrats are hoping to deny a second term in November. He won in blue Michigan by billing himself as the numbers-focused “One Tough Nerd,” and while he’s not as unpopular as several of the other GOP governors of his year, he’s still expected to have a tough reelection battle.

Snyder is facing former Democratic Rep. Mark Schauer, Democrats’ top recruit for the race. Polling in the fall generally gave Snyder a single-digit lead over Schauer.

5. Illinois

Pat Quinn is another one of America’s least favorite governors: The Democrat has been mired in low approval ratings throughout his tenure and even briefly drew a primary challenger, former White House Chief of Staff Bill Daley.

With Daley out of the race and other prospective primary challengers staying out (thus far), it looks like Quinn will avoid a competitive fight for the Democratic nomination. But the general election is still bound to be an incredibly tough fight — current polling shows Quinn in a tight race with any of the GOP’s four candidates.