IT IS midnight on 22 September 2012 and the skies above Manhattan are filled with a flickering curtain of colourful light. Few New Yorkers have
seen the aurora this far south but their fascination is short-lived. Within a few seconds, electric bulbs dim and flicker, then become unusually
bright for a fleeting moment. Then all the lights in the state go out. Within 90 seconds, the entire eastern half of the US is without power.

May 29, 2009: An international panel of experts led by NOAA and sponsored by NASA has released a new prediction for the next solar cycle. Solar
Cycle 24 will peak, they say, in May 2013 with a below-average number of sunspots.

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With all that in mind, I still have the feeling were are but chimps throwing darts in regards to long range solar weather forecasting.

September 3, 2009: The sun is in the pits of the deepest solar minimum in nearly a century. Weeks and sometimes whole months go by without even
a single tiny sunspot. The quiet has dragged out for more than two years, prompting some observers to wonder, are sunspots disappearing?

"Sunspot magnetic fields are dropping by about 50 gauss per year," says Penn. "If we extrapolate this trend into the future, sunspots could
completely vanish around the year 2015."

Long range forecasting based on a solar anomaly and mixed in with arctic temps at 2000 year highs is like rolling dice, and your guess is as good as
mine Sofi. I have noticed the seasons seem to be arriving later and later in the last few years and was surprised to see tornadic activity in the
Northern US in late summer this year. Abnormal weather patterns begat abnormal weather is about all I can say with confidence.

Some speculate a mini-ice age is coming, although I would say we need a large volcanic Toba
type eruption to make that viable.

Over the weekend, a paper published in the American Geophysical Union's journal Eos attracted a lot of attention, as it suggested that the
levels of magnetic activity associated with recent sunspots indicated that the sun might be returning to a state of low activity, similar to that of
the Maunder Minimum, which occurred in the late 17th century. That change in solar activity was notable for setting off what's called the Little Ice
Age, which plunged Europe into a deep chill. Left undiscussed is what that might mean in a world where greenhouse gas changes are threatening a period
of extended high temperatures.

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We are trying to get a grip on forecasting it though.

How Sunlight Controls Climate Scientific American
New computer models begin to suggest how changes in the sun's strength might change weather patterns

Small changes in the sun's brightness can have big impacts on our planet's weather and climate. And now scientists have detailed how that
process might work, according to a new study published August 28 in Science (pdf
file).

For decades some scientists have noted that certain climate phenomena—warmer seas, increased tropical rainfall, fewer clouds in the subtropics,
stronger trade winds—seem to be connected to the sun's roughly 11-year cycle, which causes ebbs and flows in sunspots that result in variations in
solar output.

Sonograms of the solar interior reveal a flow that is taking longer than usual to move from the poles to the equator and may be related to the
current long minimum of solar activity.

We do not know why the torsional oscillation is slowly migrating. We also monitor the north-south meridional flow and the differential rotation, but
neither is significantly different between the two cycles. The meridional flow is thought to play an important role in determining the timing and
amplitude of the solar-activity cycle,15 but at a depth far below what we can presently sample reliably.

Thus, several mysteries remain in our quest to unravel the cause of the solar cycle. Because of our analysis technique, the flows in Figure 1 are
precisely symmetric across the equator, but the sun shows significant differences between the northern and southern hemispheres that may play a role
in the cycle behavior. These differences can be studied using other helioseismological methods, such as ring diagrams16 and time distance.17 In
addition, we are developing methods to search for the deep meridional flow that should exist about 200,000km below the surface. These techniques will
enable us to learn more about the roots of the sunspot cycle.

It seems that 2009 is sure to pass 1954 and 1933 to move into 4th place for sunspot-free days since 1900. Both of these years had about 240
sunspot-free days. Last year achieved 2nd place with 266 blank days,; as of Nov 2, 2009 we stand at 235 days. Given the number of days left in 2009,
there’s still about an even money chance for 2009 to at least tie 2008.

According to the Royal Observatory of Belgium, geomagnetic conditions reached active levels.
when NOAA active region 1121produced repeated B and C flares. STEREO indicated that a geoeffective CMEs is associated with this activity. This could
lead to enhanced geomagnetic conditions around Nov
13-14.

Although solar activity became quieter today, there is still occasionally a B or small C flare from NOAA 1123. They inform that associated CME seems
to be directed northward. Even though, during the next 48 hours we may
experience geomagnetic conditions to increase (active) due to the arrival of the CME that erupted early on Nov 11.

We´ll have to monitor all other events (seismic, volcanic, etc.) to see if this increases other kind of activity on Earth.

The resulting solar storm could cause a geomagnetic storm on Earth, knocking out electricity grids around the world for hours, days, or even months,
bringing much of normal life grinding to a halt.

Defence Secretary Liam Fox, who delivered the keynote address at an international conference on the vulnerability of electricity grids around the
world, warned that modern societies' dependence on technology leaves them vulnerable to such events

The Sun follows an 11-year cycle of high and low periods of solar activity. It is now leaving a notably quiet phase and scientists expect to see a
sharp increase in the number of solar flares as well as unprecedented levels of magnetic energy.

Experts met in Washington DC in June to discuss how to protect Earth from the ferocious flares, which are expected sometime around 2013.

Nasa is using dozens of satellites – including the Solar Dynamics Observatory – to study the threat.

Smart power grids, GPS navigation, air travel, financial services and emergency radio communications can all be knocked out by intense solar
activity.

But much of the damage could be minimised if it was known in advance that the storm was approaching.

Scientists always talk about the effects of a massive solar storm on electricity grids, radiocommunications,etc. but what about say for instance our
seismic and vulcanic activity? Furthermore, I would bet that all these huge radiation levels somehow will also affect humans and animals...

What is really important is that they openly admit the possibility of a major interruption of our normal life.
What would we do without electricity?
This is very serious...

Prompted by a recent increase in solar activity, more than a hundred researchers and government officials are converging on Helwan, Egypt, to discuss
a matter of global importance: storms from the sun. The “First Workshop of the International Space Weather Initiative (ISWI)” meets Nov. 6th
through 10th and is convened by the United Nations, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and the Japan Aerospace Exploration
Agency (JAXA). "Strong solar storms can knock out power, disable satellites, and scramble GPS," says meeting organizer and ISWI executive director
Joe Davila of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. "This meeting will help us prepare for the next big event. ..A key problem organizers hope to
solve is a gap--many gaps, actually---in storm coverage around our planet. When a big storm is underway, waves of ionization ripple through Earth’s
upper atmosphere, electric currents flow through the topsoil, and the whole planet's magnetic field begins to shake.
"These are global phenomena," says Davila, "so we need to be able to monitor them all around the world."

More and more people (amateurs, scientists, governments, etc.) are looking to the sky... Earth´s enemy seems to be coming from above... We are not
prepared to cope with a massive solar storm. But the problem is that it will happen.

The ability to predict the future behavior of solar activity has become of extreme importance due to its effect on the near-Earth environment Solar
Cycle 24.
A prediction model estimated an average solar cycle 24, with the maximum occurring around June 2012. IPS has revised the prediction model and has
estimated it to be in 2013 (September/October).

Some predictions put the solar maximum of Solar Cycle 24 even more energetic than the last solar maximum in 2002-2003...

This is starting to become really interesting as we will have the chance to monitor all the events that happen on Earth after a solar storm...

Conclusion:
If a CME event takes over 52 hours to reach Earth, it will most likely have minimal impact and produce only a minor geomagnetic storm event (G1 or
G2). Also a large proton event usually accompanies a major CME.

Note: Not all solar flares produce coronal mass ejections (CME), and only a few CMEs are geo-effective, meaning they are directed towards Earth.

Also see Phage's article on why the X2.2 flare/CME had a minimal effect to our geomagnetic field:
Dodged a solar bullet - ATS

The sun is waking up from a long quiet spell. Last week it sent out the strongest flare for four years – and scientists are warning that earth
should prepare for an intense electromagnetic storm that, in the worst case, could be a “global Katrina” costing the world economy $2,000bn.

Senior officials responsible for policy on solar storms – also known as space weather – in the US, UK and Sweden urged more preparedness at the
annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in Washington.

“We have to take the issue of space weather seriously,” said Sir John Beddington, UK chief scientist. “The sun is coming out of a quiet period,
and our vulnerability has increased since the last solar maximum [around 2000]

A severe solar storm has the potential to take down telecommunications and power grids, and the country needs to work on being better prepared,
said NOAA administrator Jane Lubchenco here at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science. Lubchenco is also the
U.S. Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere. "This is not a matter of if, it's simply a matter of when and how big," Lubchenco said
of the potential for a dangerous solar flare. "We have every reason to expect we're going to be seeing more space weather in the coming years, and
it behooves us to be smart and be prepared."

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Currently there are no geo-effecting sunspots that are a threat to Earth. A new series of spots should be rotating into a geo-effective position in
about 12-13 days according to GONG Farside's seismic image data.

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