Friday, November 20, 2009

Take a closer look at the image. Historically, the 6 months performance after the the golden cross is 10.01%. The performance since golden cross on June 24 around 900 is 21.22%. The funny thing with averages is that you can have 30, 0, 0 and it averages to 10. Unfortunately, I don't have the data points.

So far, performance is 2x the average. Can it go higher, sure? At this point, I don't know if this is a new record performance or not because I don't know what the record is or was.

I know that you should not double down on a losing trade. But how do you know if a trade is a losing trade? Because the price movement goes against you initially, does not necessarily mean it was a losing trade.

I like to reference the game of black jack once in a while.

Let's say you have 11 and dealer has face card showing. You double down and got a 2. You have the opportunity to surrender and lose half the wager amount. Do you, would you?

The card underneath turns out to be 6, dealer draw 10 and busted.

Here are the charts for TWM.

I have tweeted - I will sell #TWM for loss when #IWM close above 61.57.

Would you have double down? Do you have balls of steel?

FYI: I did not double down, never saw it, but it's 28.19% of my one IRA account. May be I should have only invested 5% of account to start with.

Tuesday, November 17, 2009

If I don't do this now, I might forget. With Thanksgiving coming up, I just wanted to say thanks.

Thanks for families and friends.Thanks for good careers and colleagues.Thanks for readers who stop by for quick read.Thanks for readers who come back for another read.Thanks for those who has helped me along the way.Thanks for those who are tolerant of me.Thanks for those who have given the time of day.Thanks for all the beauties in the world.

Had you pay attention to my charts, you will realize that a majority of them have On Balance Volume (OBV). It's on the chart for a reason.

I was infected by the herd mentality - there's no volume in this rally. Hence, I was paying attention to Volume and not On Balance Volume. Today, I questioned myself on how was it possible that this market continues to rise on no volume. Then it hit me dead smack in the face, look at the On Balance Volume.

Chalk this up as another lesson learned and sometimes too much information can be detrimental.

Tuesday, November 3, 2009

Then I sit here indecisive as to whether or not to create a new post. I am sure some of you are the same way about the market. Should I buy, should I sell, should I short, should I be bullish or should I be bearish.