A volatile market - how to read the ‘fear gauges’

Trading and investing in stocks means being clear-eyed about risk. But there are market indicators to help you judge what to worry about, and what sectors look most exposed.

Let’s look at fear gauges first. What are they, and can they help you make better trading decisions? The two big ones are the VIX and the Vstoxx.

The VIX is shorthand for the Chicago Board Options Exchange’s (CBOE) volatility index. It’s based on the US S&P 500, the index of America’s biggest public companies, and designed to measure anticipated market volatility. Note ‘anticipated’ or ‘perceived’, not ‘actual’.

What does the VIX do?

The VIX looks at near-term volatility based on calculations from options data of where markets may go in the next 30 days. It’s quoted as a percentage rather than money.

Try not to think of it as a ‘bear’ index. The VIX looks at negative and positive sentiment, political noise plus other market patterns and inputs.

A high VIX reading – traditionally any score below 20 is considered low – may indicate concern about market risk, either up or down. A high VIX reading means more option buying is going on, giving a buyer a right to sell off a security at a certain time for a certain price.

In other words, it’s closely tracking volatility. Keep in mind, a VIX reading is not about stock prices; it’s about S&P 500 option prices. It’s about sentiment. It never tries to lead.

Crunching the data: Shutterstock

And it works…how?

The computational VIX technicalities are arcane. In the CBOE’s own words, “VIX is a measure of expected volatility calculated as 100 times the square root of the expected 30-day variance (var) of the S&P 500 rate of return. The variance is annualized and VIX expresses volatility in percentage points.”

Got that? Hmmn. More talk of “risk-neutral expectation of variance” follows. So let’s keep it short: a VIX reading is a blended read-out of insurance put and call options of how traders think the market may respond in the near future.

Now let’s look at VIX readings for the first quarter of 2017: in January a TV gameshow host and real estate speculator elbows his way into the White House following a tumultuous election result.

In February the risk of a far-right populist presidential victory in France and the potential of an unravelling euro project sweeps across Europe spooking investor sentiment. Meanwhile more Brexit uncertainty surges in and out of the UK.

“When the VIX is high,” the adage goes, “it’s time to buy. When the VIX is low, look out below."

Protests against Brexit: Shutterstock

Market indicators?

Given this – dystopian – backdrop how did VIX readings read in May 2017? Off the scale?

Actually, the VIX slumped to its lowest score since 1993 of just 9.77. That compares with scores of 28.43 in August 2015 when the Dow sank 1,000 points in a day, and a score of almost 43 points at the end of September 2011 as the global financial crisis ground on.

So the relative post-Trump election VIX calm was, to some extent, pinned on historically low global interest rates and a measure of economic optimism (improving US unemployment, solid corporate first quarter earnings).

Keep in mind a lower VIX reading does not imply less risk. A low score can imply a sharp correction is imminent, or of significant market over-complacency. Even coming economic carnage. The duplicitous Janus face of capitalism, you might say.

“When the VIX is high,” the adage goes, “it’s time to buy. When the VIX is low, look out below.

Euro Stoxx 50 Volatility Index or Vstoxx

This is Europe’s ‘fear gauge’. It does a similar job to the VIX, taking its cue from blue-chip companies across the eurozone including Italy, Ireland, Portugal and Spain.

While there are correlations between the VIX and the Vstoxx they represent different geo-political backdrops. Their paths respond differently to uncertainty. But both attempt to measure volatility.

Drive with care: Shutterstock

Take advantage of high volatility stocks

Can you take advantage of so-called ‘fear readings’? Financial adviser Jon Horton from London-based Chamberlain de Broe says most European and British investors don’t give them much attention.

“Channels such as Bloomberg or CNBC almost scream about them. In the UK they’re a more alien commodity.”

However, he says a high fear reading can be the signal to get in if you’re investing long-term. Whether it’s emerging markets such as Brazil or China or sectors such as biotech and pharmaceuticals, many assets are highly cyclical.

Biotechnology and pharma options

The biotech industry is a good example. “Just this last week [third week of June 2017] we’ve seen biotech have a strong rally because the rumour mill suggests President Donald Trump will loosen regulations and make it easier to bring drugs to market,” Horton says.

“A cloud has hung over the sector since Hilary Clinton talked about monopoly concerns in this sector. But now it’s on fire.”

What about individual volatile stocks?

Some stocks are more volatile than others. They present opportunities for day traders prepared to study them.

Generally you want stocks that have consistent strong volumes – so you’re not suddenly caught out by a period of thin trading. In other words, you want stocks where you can enter and exit the market quickly.

Using screening filters and scanning news updates you can identify stocks that:

Move typically more than 5% or more per day based on a 100-day trading range

Have high trading volumes

Are new, disruptive and so unpredictable – think companies such as Tesla

Have a history of recent profit warnings – earnings updates can cause big share price lurches. For example in early 2017 huge concerns hangs over the future of many retail bricks-and-mortar businesses, on both sides of the Atlantic

Are in the media headlines because of concerns about their governance, or issues with leadership style

Generate meaningful social media news which hits share prices, up and down

Are vulnerable to regulation or wider economic news

You can also prepare by looking closely at earnings calendars and anticipating the release dates of economic reports that may impact sector share prices.

Also, get to know the competitors of any companies you study. How their share price responds to news and events will tell you a lot about the stocks you want to trade.

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