Expires:201306302015;;329556
FPUS51 KBTV 300753
ZFPBTV
ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
353 AM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
VTZ006-302015-
LAMOILLE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSON...STOWE
353 AM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THIS MORNING...THEN SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
.TONIGHT...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 60S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.
.MONDAY...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS
LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT.
.MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS
IN THE LOWER 60S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN
60 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN
THE MID 60S. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.
.INDEPENDENCE DAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN
THE LOWER 60S. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 60S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.
$$
Expires:201306301100;;335752
ASUS41 KBTV 301030
RWRBTV
VERMONT REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
600 AM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY.
* THESE REPORTS ARE NOT UNDER NWS QUALITY CONTROL AND/OR DO NOT
REPORT WEATHER SUCH AS PRECIPITATION AND FOG.
VTZ001>019-301100-
_____VERMONT_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
BURLINGTON FOG 64 62 93 CALM 29.76R VSB 1/2
MONTPELIER FOG 61 61 100 CALM 29.81R VSB<1/4
MORRISVILLE FOG 61 60 97 CALM 29.78R VSB<1/4
ST. JOHNSBURY* N/A 65 63 93 MISG 29.75R
LYNDONVILLE* FOG 62 60 91 CALM 29.80R VSB 1
RUTLAND* SUNNY 63 61 94 CALM 29.79R
SPRINGFIELD FOG 61 61 100 CALM 29.78R VSB 1/4
HIGHGATE* FAIR 62 59 92 CALM 29.76R
NEWPORT* FOG 60 57 92 CALM 29.78R VSB 1/4
BENNINGTON MOSUNNY 63 61 94 CALM 29.80R FOG
SUTTON* N/A 61 N/A N/A MISG N/A
ISLAND POND* N/A 61 N/A N/A CALM N/A
GALLUP MILLS* N/A 61 N/A N/A MISG N/A
UNION VILLAGE* N/A 63 N/A N/A MISG N/A
MT. MANSFIELD* N/A 55 N/A N/A NW16 N/A
_____LAKE CHAMPLAIN_____
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS
COLCHESTER RF* N/A 63 63 100 S5 N/A
DIAMOND ISL* N/A 64 64 100 SE1 N/A
$$
Expires:No;;331720
FXUS61 KBTV 300831
AFDBTV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
431 AM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK. WE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE DAILY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING WILL BE ON
TUESDAY OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ARRIVING BY LATE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 425 AM EDT SUNDAY...ONCE AGAIN TODAY'S FCST CHALLENGE WL BE
AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SHOWERS/STORMS...AS LITTLE CHANGE IN
OVERALL PATTERN CONTS. WATER VAPOR CONTS TO SHOW A BOARD SW FLW
ALOFT WITH MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACRS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
TODAY'S S/W ENERGY OF INTEREST IS NOW LOCATED ACRS
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PA AND IS PROGGED TO LIFT NE TWD OUR CWA BY THIS
AFTN. THIS COMBINED WITH PW VALUES BTWN 1.25 AND 1.50" AND
CONTINUED BOUNDARY DRAPED ACRS OUR CWA...WL PRODUCE MORE
SHOWERS/STORMS. RAP13 SHOWS BEST SFC INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES
BTWN 1200 AND 1800 J/KG ACRS SOUTHERN VT...WITH SHARP GRADIENT
OVER ESSEX COUNTY NY INTO CENTRAL VT...WITH 0 TO 6 KM SHEAR VALUES
BTWN 40 AND 50 KNTS. FEEL BASED ON POSITION OF SFC
BOUNDARY...INSTABILITY AXIS...AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER PWS ACRS OUR
SOUTHERN CWA...HIGHEST POPS WL BE FROM THE EASTERN DACKS INTO
CENTRAL VT. VERY DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACT PLACEMENT OF
HEAVIEST QPF AXIS...BUT ONCE AGAIN FEEL LOCAL 2KM AND 4KM MODELS
ARE WAY TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
PRECIP...ESPECIALLY WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY RELATIVELY SMALL
QPF FOOT PRINTS. WL MENTION LIKELY POPS SOUTH/CENTRAL CWA AND
TAPER TO SCHC/CHC ACRS THE SLV/INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WL NOT
MENTION ENHANCED WORDING FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AS S/W
ENERGY IS WEAKER TODAY AND BEST INSTABILITY IS A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH. HOWEVER...STILL WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED FOR ISOLATED QPF
>1.0"...WITH SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN OUR VERY SATURATED SOILS. WL HIGHLIGHT IN HWO OF POTENTIAL
ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING THREAT. LITTLE CHANGE
ANTICIPATED IN TEMPS FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS...MAINLY MID 70S
MTNS TO L80S WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS.
TONIGHT...AREAL COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SHOWERS/STORMS WL DECREASE
AROUND SUNSET...AS LLVL STABILIZE AND BEST S/W ENERGY LIFTS
NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA. WL MENTION LOW CHC POPS THRU 03Z...THEN AREAS
OF FOG DEVELOPING PER SATURATED BL CONDITIONS. TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
50S COOLER MTN VALLEYS TO M60S CPV.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 425 AM EDT SUNDAY...THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS
WL CONT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE FLOODING...ESPECIALLY ON
TUES AS BETTER S/W ENERGY AND DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES.
OVERALL...LITTLE CHANGE IN LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH
BERMUDA HIGH OFF THE EAST COAST AND DEEP CLOSED TROF ACRS THE MS
VALLEY. ALL LARGE SCALE MODELS SHOW MID/UPPER LVL TROF DEEPENING
AS S/W ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE AND OUR MID LVL FLW SHIFTING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH. THIS WL HELP ADVECT DEEP MOISTURE INTO OUR
CWA...WITH PWS APPROACHING 2.0" AGAIN BY TUESDAY...WHICH IS 200%
ABOVE NORMAL AND >90 PERCENTILE FOR EARLY JULY. IN
ADDITION...ANTICYCLONIC CURVED 25H JET OF 80 TO 100 KNTS WL BE
LOCATED ACRS SOUTHERN CANADA...PLACING OUR CWA IN RRQ WITH
FAVORABLE ULVL DIVERGENCE...WHILE DEVELOPING NOSE OF 85H JET IS
LOCATED OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZNS ON TUES. WL MENTION CHC POPS ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH LIKELY ACRS THE EASTERN DACKS INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT ON MONDAY. WL CARRY THESE LIKELY POPS UNTIL
MIDNIGHT OR SO ON MONDAY NIGHT...AS BOTH GFS/SREF SHOW FAVORABLE
MOISTURE AND BEST S/W ENERGY ARRIVING AROUND 00Z...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN VT. MODEST VALUES OF INSTABILITY WL BE PRESENT ON MONDAY
WITH LIS AROUND -2C AND CAPE BTWN 800-1200 J/KG. WL MENTION SCHC
TO CHC OF THUNDER IN GRIDS. TUESDAY...INSTABILITY INCREASES ACRS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VT ZNS...ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL. WL MENTION LIKELY POPS ACRS MOST OF THE CWA...AS
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE IS BETTER...ALONG WITH A BOUNDARY IN PLACE.
TUESDAY COULD BE A VERY BUSY DAY WITH HYDRO PRODUCTS...WITH
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. WL HIGHLIGHT IN HWO AND HYDRO
SECTION BLW...BUT EVENTUALLY ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAYBE
NEEDED...ESPECIALLY GIVEN CRNT INDICATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 405 AM EDT SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WITH WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG WITH DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MID-LATE SUMMER PATTERN PERSISTS WITH FORECAST AREA INBETWEEN STRONG
BERMUDA HIGH AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH OFF TO THE WEST. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF TROPICAL AIR AND A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS APPEAR HIGHEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD WHEN REMNANTS
OF SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS REGION...PROVIDING A FOCUS
FOR THE PRECIPITATION.
OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO HIGHEST DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH
DAY...DURING TIME OF MAX HEATING AND INSTABILITY.
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING VERY HIGH FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD (NEAR 2 INCHES)...THERE WILL BE CONTINUED THREAT FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POTENTIAL HYDRO CONCERNS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE DUE TO THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN WE HAVE RECEIVED THIS
MONTH AND THE SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT BY LATE IN THE WEEK THE RIDGE MAY
RETROGRADE WEST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR FLOW TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND
ZONAL...WHICH MAY HELP DRY THINGS OUT JUST A BIT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AND IT WILL BE
HUMID. EXPECT VALLEY HIGHS IN THE MID AND PERHAPS UPPER 80S...WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT IFR AT SLK/BTV THROUGH 12Z AND PERHAPS A PERIOD OF
IFR AT REST OF SITES BETWEEN 08Z-12Z. IMPROVING CIGS/VSBYS AFTER
12Z WITH ALL SITES VFR BY AROUND 14Z. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH CONDITIONS
LOWERING TO MVFR AT TIMES. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT ALL TAF SITES
EXCEPT MSS BETWEEN 18Z- 24Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SHOWERS. SHOWERS
END SUNDAY EVENING...BUT AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT...THEN S-SW 5-10 KTS DURING SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH BRIEF
REDUCTION TO MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. MAY SEE MVFR/IFR IN SOME FOG/BR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THOSE PLACES THAT SEE RAIN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 430 AM EDT SUNDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VT. WHILE NOT WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED...SOME
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS.
THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING WITH POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING
WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OF THIS UPCOMING
WEEK. THE EXPECTED AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
INCREASE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP
MOISTURE... SFC INSTABILITY...AND A BOUNDARY NEARBY WL HELP IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS. GIVEN THE RECENT
RAINS AND ALREADY SATURATED SOILS...VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL IS NEEDED TO CAUSE PROBLEMS. RAPID RISES ON LOCAL
WATERWAYS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY WHEN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAYBE
NEEDED FOR TUESDAY.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...RJS/SISSON
AVIATION...RJS
HYDROLOGY...TABER
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