Thursday, May 13, 2010

Monsoon Watch-7El-Nino Factor Over:With all the major indicators now below El Niño thresholds,latest observations show that sea surface temperatures, trade winds, the Southern Oscillation Index and cloudiness over the Pacific have all returned to levels considered typical of neutral.The tropical Pacific has continued to cool during May,with NINO indices all at neutral levels. The weekly SST anomaly map shows warm anomalies covering most of the equatorial Pacific.Thus the El-Nino is over and done with!This parameter need not be mentioned vis-a-vis the progress of the Monsoon now, and its impact, finished now, will not be discussed in our MW. Even the June short-rainfall danger, due to the El-Nino, seems to be over now.

MJO Indications:Acoording to the Australian Bureau of Met. -"The active MJO is currently located near longitude 110 East, entering the Maritime Continent region.The latest guidance suggests that the MJO event will slow as it moves into the Maritime Continent region, and begin to weaken in intensity over the coming week or two". The majority of dynamical model MJO index forecasts indicate a weakening MJO signal during Week-2. Now translated, I presume it means less rain for the West Coast of India after May end.So,it means, the active MJO in the Arabian Sea will bring in the Monsoon by May end, to the South-Western Coast of India, and then the Eastward movement of the MJO will weaken the rains in the first week of June ?? I am not well versed with the MJO actions and resulting effects, so would not like to comment or forecast on this parameter.

The Heat Wave in Central India is intense,(IMD day temp.Maps), and with a high of 47.3c at Wardha, we have a whole lot of 45s, 46s in the Sub-Continent.The highest of 48c onThursday, 13th. May,in the region was at Nawabshah (Pakistan).This augers well for the forming of the seasonal low, now at 998 mb.

The HIGH pressure seen in [NORTH] Indian Ocean and extending in ARABIAN sea is NOT allowing monsoonal winds advancing into Northern Hemi sphere. This is the general pressure pattern in April and mid May.

The above is the Metosat wind analysis. 950-800 hPa winds in southern hemisphere are concentrating and converging near East African coast of Tanzania . This concentration has not crossed equator. This is low level wind. The anti cyclonic circulation in southern hemisphere is lying between 20 DEG South to 35 DEG South and between 75 deg EAST to 110 deg EAST. It may take another ten days to concentrate and to become SEM winds.

Cherrapunji crossed 4000mm mark before monsoon with a 209mm rainfall yesterday. It has received 2733% above normal rainfall from march 1st. Will it able to cross 6000mm before the onset of monsoon posted by Pradeep

Iceland’s Eyjafjallajökull Volcano continues to erupt a thick plume of ash. On May 11, 2010, the ash was streaming almost directly south, visibly extending at least 860 kilometers (530 miles) from Eyjafjallajökull. According to the London Volcanic Ash Advisory Center, the ash reached altitudes of 14,000 to 17,000 feet (4,300 to 5,200 meters). CNN reported that some Spanish and Moroccan airports were closed at the time. On May 10th, the Icelandic Met Office reported continuous ash fall south of the volcano, with as depths reaching 2-3 millimeters (roughly 0.1 inches).
This natural-color image was acquired by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer aboard NASA’s Terra satellite at 12:15 p.m. local time.