*Team records are only for games played by player [i.e. scoring zero points in no minutes isn’t included in team record]

Of Note:

• Cuttino Mobley is the most decisive bellwether on the roster. When he scores, the Clippers generally win. When he doesn’t, they usually lose.

• When Elton Brand takes matters into his own hands, the Clippers win. The more often he does that, the better the season will proceed. He scored 30 points or more 25 times in 2005-2006. In 2006-2007, he hit the 30 mark only nine times.

• It’s not advantageous for Tim Thomas to be a focal point of the offense.

• The Clippers miss Sam Cassell.

Statistics should always be taken with a grain of salt, particularly when multiple variables aren’t taken into account. But these numbers reflect some interesting dynamics.

Posted Wednesday, October 29 at 3:20PM

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Some interesting evidence for extended playing time of QRoss. That's not gonna make the Maggette lovers happy if Dunleavy sees this. As far as Kaman goes, is there any correlation as to how many minutes he plays to wins...because we all know how quickly he can be taken out of a game due to foul problems.

Scoring effectively seemed to be one of the major problems for this past season. I can't remember how many times we had to play catch up to so many teams in the second half only to end up losing by single digits. With that in mind, SMALL BALL might work well for us in 07-08:
C: Brand 6'8"
4: Thornton 6'8"
3: Maggette 6"6"
2: Mobley 6'4"
1: Cassell 6'3"

Positives: Everyone in this starting 5 can score 20+ point games, no doubt.
Though they are under-sized, I know that Brand, Thornton, and Maggette could rebound and do pretty well on the boards.

Negatives: With Cassell on the court, the running game is non-existent. Having Maggette and Cassell gives us two holes in our D, unless we play a zone which Maggette always seems to get lost in. If any decent 4 like Boozer for example, posts up against Thornton or Maggette, were f*cked.

I think JB_Baby hit the nail on the head. I think we need to see how Kaman and Davis contribute this season before we start thinking about playing small ball. I have high hopes for Kaman this season. Let just hope he's taken his meds ....

Games where FGA were 10 or more: W-15, L-30
FG%: 44.63 on totals, 25.8 minutes/game

Games where FGA were 9 or less: W-22, L-8
FG%: 47.63 on totals, 33.5 minutes/game

Games where FGA was 0: W-3, L-4
Corey did not play.

Of the 40 games the Clips won, FGA: 367, FGM: 171 – 46.9%
367 FGA over 40 games breaks down to 9.175 attempts per game.

Of the 42 games the Clips lost, FGA: 441, FGM: 196 – 44.44%
441 FGA over 42 games breaks down to 10.5 attempts per game.

If numbers ruled the world, I say start Corey and make (almost) everyone happy. BUT, play him for 25-30 minutes a game and get him to takes 2.5 less shots (or touches) a game. That should provide for a solid 20-25 minutes give or take for Q Ross.

Dan - I like that lineup, but starting Mobley with Thornton playing significant minutes off the bench. They would need another three point threat (sorry to say that T Thomas doesn't fulfill that role).

Those numbers for Cat make a lot of sense. If he takes his 11 shots per game and comes up with less than 9, obviously that's alot of empty possessions vs turning those 11 chances into 20+ points. Cat as efficient scorer is the difference between scoring 95 and 105 and that's pretty much the sweet spot for the Clippers defense.

Why would one hate stats? Do you hate the stats because you hate stats in general? Or do you hate them because you don't like what they vaguely suggest?

Just on Games he started:
On games Won – 4.71FGM / 10.57FGA, FG% - 44.59 on totals
On games Lost – 6.35FGM / 13.58FGA, FG% - 46.75 on totals

Just on Games he sat:
On games Won – 4.26FGM / 9.52FGA, FG% - 44.74 on totals
On games Lost – 4.19FGM / 10FGA, FG% - 41.9 on totals

They are -3 with him starting and only +2 without him starting, not counting those 7 games he missed. Otherwise, his percentages and totals go up slightly when he starts. Looks like starting or not starting Corey is more of an individual boost to his numbers, than for the team. If anything their record with Corey as a starter suggests (slightly) keeping him on the bench.

As previously stated: "start Corey and make (almost) everyone happy. BUT, play him for 25-30 minutes a game and get him to takes 2.5 less shots (or touches) a game."

Its really more about touches than starts. The "trend" speaks for itself.

If he took ~2 less shots or had ~2 less touches in his 31 starts... he'd be between 9-10 FGA per game, that's been good for the clips.

John R's post is helpful because it shows how stats can be manipulated to support whatever position one wants to assert, even illogical positions (as well as incorrect statistical interpretations) like those we see so frequently from John R.

As John R (aka Dunleavy) well knows, Corey was hurt most of last year and the Clippers had legitimate point guards and a legitimate center. As John R also well knows, the team would have been better last year with Corey starting or playing significant minutes, just like it was better with Corey starting this year.

However, sometimes stats do help. John R, since you seem to have so many stats at your disposal, certainly you have the stats that show the number of Clipper wins last year with Cory at starter and coming off the bench.

I suspect that John R won't post the numbers because he is afraid of what they will show . . . That the team did far better with Corey starting than, gasp, with Q Ross starting. Of course, that's not very surprising to most people who know basketball, which is why John R doesn't want to talk about it and hasn't discussed it since last Spring.

Clippers are not going to keep Paul Davis. They are already getting serious about signing Jared Jordan, M.Abukar & Mike Gansey. Abukar & Thornton will be more helpful alongwith Elton & TThomas to service the 'Center' position. Kaman will get one more shakey chance to show his empty 'talent'. Buy out his contract or ship him somewhere he can rest on the bench. Clippers sacrificed couple of seasons for him. Wondering why?

Stop beating each other up guys. It's time to unite as Clipper fans. NBA is treating Clippers as doormat. Right now NBAtv is telecasting Laker-Philly game live. Excellent NBA quaity coverage. Let's see how they are going to cover Clipper game tonite. Heard complaints about previous game coverage.

If this double standard continues, we'll have no choice but to start FIRE ELGIN BAYLOR.COM

the stats don't matter. The clips flat out play ugly ball when corey isn't playing significant minutes. Also he should start b/c he's not a good spark plug off of the bench...he's not a smart enough player and he takes longer to find his rhythm and make an impact.

Wow,what a bunch of crap. I am a professioanl research executive so read all of this with a great big smile on my face since the way all of the stats were presented were basically meaningless since nothing happens in a vacuum. Yes, Clipper stats look better when Corey was off bench vs., when he was starting. Of course those stats do not take into account that for the most part when Corey started both Livingston and Cassell were injured. So they aren't apples to apples. John R's little chart showing decreased Maggette minutes is totally irrelevant unless you want to believe that Corey being hurt in 05-06 is what made Cassell, Kaman and EB all have significantly better seasons than they did this year.John R. do this: what was the Clips record in 05-06 when Corey played and Cassell, Kaman and EB averaged the 43 points a game they delivered this season, instead of the 54 they averaged in 05-06? And as for the Clips winning more when EB scores 30 or more, duh! But try this one on; EB has played 8 seasons, 7 of them he has averaged between 18.2 and 20.5, in one he averaged 24.7. Now anyone with any knowledge of statistics will tell you that the 24.7 is an anomaly that will most likely not occur again. So what does that mean? Well, Coach Dunceleavy needs to develop a true secondary weapon since it is most likely that he isn't going to get those 4.5 points a game from EB again.

“what was the Clips record in 05-06 when Corey played and Cassell, Kaman and EB averaged the 43 points a game they delivered this season, instead of the 54 they averaged in 05-06?”

Okay Mr. “professional research executive” here you go:

Season: 05-06, Corey played in 32 games. Of those 32 games, Brand-Sam-Chris scored 44 or more 25 times, 43 or LESS 7 times.
In those 7 games: W-4, L-3
Corey started 1 of those 7, had 30pts , EB19-SC13-CK8
In game #82 vs Dal, Corey had 18, EB-dnp / SC-dnp / CK-14

So what…? Whether Corey starts or not isn’t really the issue, it’s the FGA/touches that he gets.

05-06, he started 13 games W-9, L-4
Games Lost: FGM/FGA - 6/13.8 – at 41.81 on totals
Games Won: FGM/FGA - 6/13.4 – at 42.97 on totals
Averaged 21pts/game (8.5 on FT… looking at 12.5pts/game)

He was most efficient in the 12 games the clips won, when he did NOT start and he had about 10 FGAs per game. Granted he did score 6 more points on average, but that’s including 3-4 more FTs and an extra FG per game. Don’t get me wrong. I’ve been a fan of Corey starting all of 06-07. All I’m saying is, he doesn’t need more than 10 FGAs a game for the Clippers to be good. Give those 2-4 extra FGAs to Brand, Sam, Kaman, Mobley… Heck, give those 2-4 extra FGAs to Brand and mabye the 24.7 won't be an anomaly.

"The Clippers best season maybe ever came when Corey couldn't go for most of the season and last season the Clippers were better off with Corey not starting and more minutes for Q."

No, the Clippers best season maybe ever came when Sam Cassell was healthy and last season the Clippers were better off with Corey starting and Cassell healthy.........when one or both of those doesn't happen, then the team is hurt.

portland just paid out Steve Francis, so let's hope the Clips sign him up.

p.s. for my 2 cents, Q Ross doesn't have the offensive weapons that Corey does, and the Clips sucked with no offense beside Elton, they need outside shooting, something hopefully Francis can bring (and hopefully he can help out "OLD" friend Mobley too)

so Dan, thanks for doing the work, but unfortunately you didn't prove anything since there is only 1 occurence of Corey starting and the big 3 delivering their 06-07 output in 05-06. Obviously CM was going to have more shots and touches last season since Sam and Livingston played less minutes. What I was trying to state is that comparing a year to year stat is virtually worthless when there are so many other factors that come into play. It just cannot be done.

Case in point: In 2001 after jettisoning A-Rod, Griffee,Jr. and Randy Johnson the Mariners won 116 games, a league record. Using the Corey logic applied above, one would deduct that the replacement players, Carlos Guillen, and others were better for the Mariners. Obviously that is a ludicrous belief,but there were other factors involved that increased the team's play.

Numbers in baseball actually do provide great insight if put in the right context and analyzed thoroughly but when it comes to basketball, there's nothing numbers can tell you that you can't get from watching the game. All of Kevin's noteworthy stats are obvious points and are only a surprise to people who don't watch the games. It's what "analysts" use when they have no other insight to give.

John R - thank you for providing some unintended comic relief. I will yet again resist the temptation to respond to your sophomoric assertions ("scrub" - LOL). Why would I hate you? I just think you know nothing about the game of basketball and routinely waste our time on this board (and you seem to be overly obsessed with me).

For example, you think the Clippers were better with Q starting over Maggette. Sure, John R. I think your idol Dunleavy would beg to differ - indeed, he confirmed in an article in the LA Times today that Maggette will be starting. Since you seem to love Dunleavy, I'm certain that you agree with his opinion. Q will see less than 20 mins a game next year.

The bottom line is this. To compete at the highest leve, the Clippers (and really any NBA team) need three solid scorers of at least 18 ppg who play over 30 minutes a game, as well as a quality point guard and solid big men and a good defensive presence such as Q Ross. Unfortunately they do not have anything close to that. They have two consistent scorers (Brand and Corey), they need a consistent pg (see how well they did with Sam healthy as a third scorer / quality pg in 05/06).

If the Clips get another high quality scorer (Thornton in a year at SF?), Corey could conceivably be a force coming off the bench. However, it won't matter if they don't get a better pg (or healthy Sam). Someone like Q would be gravy, but really has no business starting for an NBA team who doesn't have three scorers, a pg and good big men.

With all due respect, people like John R who think that the Clips could replace Corey's 20 ppg by committee just don't understand the game.

I read this on a blog, and the time has come to face the inevitable, I have to agree with the writer. We must give up our heart and soul or suffer a slow and painful death.

“The Clips should realize that they are going nowhere. They're starting backcourt has an average age of 35 years of age, and Cassell has shown some significant signs of aging and unfortunately Livingston may never play again. It will take them at least 2-3 years to be back at a competitive level, and that's ONLY IF they make a trade to get young talent. If they don't, they will be like the Warriors Pre 2006. Not good enough for the Playoffs, but not bad enough to get a top lottery pick. NO MAN'S LAND!!!

A trade of Elton Brand, Quinton Ross and a 2nd round pick for Brandan Wright, Monta Ellis, Patrick O'Bryant, and Saras Jasekevicius would give them a young nucleus with some playoff experience, not to mention Kaman in the middle. A sign and trade of Pietrus for Cassell can also be done. In this trade the Clips not only get young playoff experienced talent, but an expiring contract in Saras ( who's has yet to be given an ample opportunity) and another almost expiring contract in Adonal Foyle.

Warriors will get Brand who can be the answer to the Warriors interior, a 1-year rental on Sam Cassell, the LA Clippers mal-content Quinton Ross, and a 2nd round pick. ”

If they attempt a last minute improbable playoff push this season, they run the risk of losing Cassell to retirement or free agency at the end of the season receiving nothing in return and they run the risk of being a mediocre team. Mediocre, but not bad enough to earn a top lottery pick in the draft to replace Cassell and Livingston. I honestly cannot see a better trade scenario for both teams.

There is also a plethora of superstar PG’s in next year’s draft. Includin OJ Mayo, Gordon, Lawson, Collison, Bayless, etc next season but they are only available if they really tank the season and get a top 5 pick.

This trade will obviously help the Clips, the only question is will the Warriors bite as they have other optins: they can land Garnett, trade for a big elsewhere, trade for Camby, or stand pat.”

Unfortunately, we have to blow the team up now. When we start talking about Brevin Knight as a key free agent pick up that will somehow take us over the top and take Jason Hart's place. WE HAVE PROBLEMS. Instead of risking losing brand for nothing next year, we should get something for him.

just read a really funny book called “Foul Lines,” by SI hoops writers Jack McCallum and Jon Wertheimer, and I thought my fellow Clips fans would enjoy it. It’s a great satire of the NBA today, with the names changed to protect identities (but it’s very easy to figure out who is who). It takes place in LA (the team is called the "Lasers"), so there's some funny LA-related stuff too, with the wild drivers and the pretentious trendy clubs. Everyone gets mocked, from rich owners in the mold of

04/11/08 18:12:08

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