Come
up with an elaborate schedule and then not meet it. Paul Musgrave
suggested this after his talk at NPSIA today--that one of the things
European countries do best is come up with various goals and then not
reach them. The upside is that Trump has a short attention span and no
expertise (and does not listen to experts) so he may not detect that the
Europeans are not doing what they promised. The downside is that Trump
may listen to someone on Fox who does do a bit of homework and then he
will rant some.

Spend more in the next year, as you were planning, and let Trump take credit for decisions made prior to his Presidency.

Start counting stuff as defense spending that you previously did not, which each year counting a bit more. Such as border security, veteran's benefits, whatever. Game the numbers until Trump is gone.

Tell
Trump/Tillerson to fuck off and see what happens. Trump can't pull out
of the NATO treaty without Congress, but he can pull US forces out of
Europe....

I'd like to see #3 because I hate it when
friends threaten friends. But I'd bet on one. The reality is that most
allies can't dramatically increase their defense budgets for a few key
reasons. Canada demonstrates what happens when one does not have enough
bureaucrats who are good at procurement--projects get delayed. So,
Canada can't spend the money it had allocated to this stuff. A more
fundamental reason is that countries have domestic politics and
competing priorities. The German foreign minister, who is of a
different party than Merkel, has already said hells no to getting to 2%
quickly. This makes #1 unlikely for many countries since lying to the
US would still suggest a commitment that some parties are unwilling to
make.

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Stephen M. Saideman

Intro

Greetings! I am a political scientist, specializing in International Relations, my research and teaching focus on ethnic conflict and civil-military relations. I watch way too much TV, and I like movies as well so I tend to write about both and find IR stuff in pop culture. I rant alot about American politics and sometimes about Canadian politics. I like to take ideas I once learned a long time ago and apply them to whatever strikes my fancy.