Diaries

Ok, so I've done a couple Harbaugh-themed works in the past day and saw at least one request for them to be posted. I will be working on a Beilein painting to pair with the Harbaugh one, In the meantime, I hope you enjoy these. I suppose the Harbaugh painting could be used as a mobile wallpaper, however, it was purely for fun at this point, so it's not sized appropriately to be perfect. As always, constructive criticism and/or suggestions are always welcome. The inspiration for the painting came from learning how to do some painting-effects in Photoshop and blending with old paintings to make them look plausible. I think, for a first attempt, it turned out pretty well. I'm sure I'll get better with practice and this is, after all, not my day job. I have four more days of freedom until I'm bound by work duties again, so I'll try to bang out some more work for ya'll in that time frame. God Bless and Go Blue! HAPPY NEW YEAR! HARBAUGH!

With the proliferation of “what about our recruiting?” and “who are we getting for coaches” threads, I thought it would make sense to put the two together. That way we could see where current college coaches have recruiting strengths and opine about possible recruits we can win or flip.

Ace does a great job with a weekly summary of our recruiting. That would be the best place to get your recruiting answers for current targets (rather than starting a new post!). Also, Brian has the current Depth Chart in an easy to find place – right there in the drop down under “Useful Stuff” (above). You can see where we have holes to fill with this easy to reach chart.

I compiled a list of coaches from other threads and got input from MGoBrewMom, Mr. Yost, alum96 and others (thanks!). If other coaches are of interest, I can add them here.

Let’s start with the coaches mentioned from the pro ranks and a little of their background:

Tyrone Wheatley – Bills RB coach; former running back at Michigan and father of a highly touted recruit.

(edit) Reggie Davis – San Fran TE coach; playing experience was at tight end on the San Diego Chargers when Harbaugh was QB.

Below are a few of the college coaches mentioned several times through the various posts. I added Rival’s recruiting information so you can see what geography they recruit from along with positions and rankings. These are broken down by 2015 commitments they earned and targeted players that committed elsewhere or not at all. If the information is in Bold, that means that Michigan has offered. The hyperlinks will take you to the Rivals information (free).

In no particular order:

DJ Durkin– Recently the DC at Florida

He was the Defensive End Coach and Special Teams coach at Stanford from 2007 to 2009. Played for Bowling Green

It appears that this guy does all the recruiting for Kentucky! His 2014 recruiting list is off the charts, too. He mostly recruits in Ohio and doesn’t target a specific position. My guess is that he is a real likeable guy.

I like to tell people that sometime in the afternoon of September 1st, 2007, after the final whistle of The Horror, Michigan football began a long walk in the woods in search of itself. We saw the edge of the woods perhaps in 2011 in the first year under Brady Hoke, but only for a fleeting moment as we took the bend in the path which led back into the thicket of seemingly muddled identity.

Even going into 2014, it didn’t seem like the way out was coming anytime soon, and as disappointments mounted, we began to wonder if 2014 was becoming a make-or-break moment for the program. That is to say, we seemed to come to the conclusion that it either gets righted now – or at least gets in a position where it can be righted – or we might be in for a long period of numbing irrelevance.

2014 itself began, I think, with some cautious optimism but much impatience after a lackluster end to 2013 with the bowl loss merely encapsulating the frustrations that had been building since one night in October 2013 where we witnessed, to quote Ace, “the stupidest fucking game that Michigan ever played”. Let’s be honest, it was exactly that.

It was with those memories we began the year, but we did have an excellent run from our basketball team which ended sadly with a loss to Kentucky in the NCAA Tournament. During the so-called Polar Vortex, during which much of the upper Midwest became the densely populated mockup of Greenland, we watched with delight as Michigan basketball put another great season in the books.

The late spring and summer were dominated with football talk around here – more than usual - because I think the crossroads were before us, and we knew it. The fall began with a bit of vengeance against Appalachian State, but then the reason of the season happened – I’ll put it that way. We endured deteriorating performance even with a theoretically excellent roster, public relations nightmares and it became clear by the end of September that this was not, in fact, Michigan. Indeed, the things that made it so were absent altogether in some cases.

Enter Jim Hackett. The absence of David Brandon as our Halloween treat suddenly breathed some life into what was a thick fog of disillusionment around the fanbase by that time. Sure, he was interim, but almost immediately, changes began – vestiges of the Brandon era in the department were told they had no future – and the culture began to change. Our season was lost by then, but we all talked about the potential to make it right existing where it had not before.

We lost to Ohio State. Days later, Brady Hoke found himself unemployed – this felt like a necessary, sad duty and if there was anything that would have summed up 2014 to that point, it was having the team leaderless yet again. We talked about whether or not the leadership had actually been there in the first place, but now it physically was not.

December on MGoBlog was one of the nuttiest months I’ve ever experienced here. Up and down, left and right, rumors, sources, sources shooting down or confirming those sources, the NFL / college axis of reporters…every conceivable name up to and including some Division III guys being discussed as potential replacements. We had no effing clue, more or less, until not that long ago that this was in fact “happening”, but I think that deep down we loved every minute of this or we would not have tried so hard to make “Stitt Happens” a Michigan thing for 15 minutes.

If 2014 up to the point of noon yesterday were to be called anything, it would be the year where Michigan’s identity crisis reached critical mass. With the Harbaugh hire, I think we’ve put ourselves in a position to have 2015 be the year where Michigan rediscovered itself.

A year that began on a cautious note, sunk to despair for a lot of fans (myself included), and then has now ended with a grand slam hire in Jim Harbaugh is a year that I wouldn’t call completely lost then. Indeed, we end 2014 with a renewed optimism and a sense that the future really can be ours. We end this year with the hope that football can get back to where we know it has been, perhaps even farther than that at some point. It might not happen right off the bat, but the potential is now real under the stewardship of Harbaugh, in my opinion.

I realize that this diary rehashes some unpleasant moments, but it isn’t anything you didn’t know. I just want to believe that now, after 7 long and frustrating years, this walk in the woods ends along with 2014 and the future is indeed bright.

So thorough was the coaching incompetence at Michigan the past two seasons that many among us have genuinely become convinced that we don't have good players on our team. On-field ineptitude chipped away at our psychology, making us feel that all things Michigan football were inept. Even in the past glorious days, there are Michigan fans claiming that we don't have good players and that we should temper our expectations for Harbaugh's first years. Maybe by 2017 we will have a competitive team.

No.

We have extremely talented players and can be competitive this next season. The table below shows the total points from the 247 Composite Team Rankings for the 2014, 2013, and 2012 recruiting classes. Players from these classes will be teams' primary contributors during the 2015 season. Total points take into consideration both quality and number of recruits in a class. The "Total" column in the table simply sums the total points from the 2014, 2013, and 2012 classes, resulting in total points over the three-year period. Further, since older players typically contribute more, another column, "Weighted total," gives more weight to 2012 (x2) and 2013 (x1.5) points to privilege talent more likely to contribute next year. Note that the top 50 teams in terms of three-year total points, plus Big Ten and future opponents are included in the table.

Rank

Team

2014

2013

2012

Total

Weighted total

Weighted Rank

1

Alabama

319.58

319.48

310.06

949.12

945.95

(1)

2

Ohio State

296.06

303.28

281.66

881.00

876.20

(2)

3

Florida

267.75

291.51

286.99

846.25

852.66

(3)

4

Florida State

286.77

262.45

287.72

836.94

837.26

(4)

5

LSU

298.80

281.04

247.10

826.94

809.71

(6)

6

Georgia

273.38

260.43

270.37

804.18

803.18

(7)

7

Michigan

233.54

289.17

275.89

798.60

812.72

(5)

8

Texas A&M

278.25

267.84

245.56

791.65

780.75

(12)

9

Notre Dame

260.44

284.77

244.29

789.50

784.12

(10)

10

Auburn

276.87

252.54

259.73

789.14

783.43

(11)

11

USC

260.54

256.45

268.36

785.35

787.96

(9)

12

Texas

240.71

234.55

295.80

771.06

789.42

(8)

13

Miami

255.80

250.44

264.52

770.76

773.67

(13)

14

UCLA

238.37

276.28

243.49

758.14

759.85

(14)

15

Oklahoma

248.55

241.44

251.20

741.19

742.07

(15)

16

Clemson

240.66

249.53

245.91

736.10

737.85

(16)

17

Tennessee

274.76

213.60

239.11

727.47

715.59

(17)

18

South Carolina

240.77

223.69

244.96

709.42

710.82

(19)

19

Oregon

232.45

227.75

247.31

707.51

712.46

(18)

20

Ole Miss

240.82

275.38

188.88

705.08

687.77

(21)

21

Stanford

250.06

174.47

272.45

696.98

704.44

(20)

22

Virginia Tech

216.97

223.04

226.63

666.64

669.86

(22)

23

Washington

197.58

234.46

220.97

653.01

660.81

(23)

24

Arkansas

215.62

215.94

217.58

649.14

649.79

(24)

25

Baylor

217.00

206.91

218.04

641.95

642.30

(26)

26

Mississippi State

200.03

212.85

223.78

636.66

644.58

(25)

27

Nebraska

197.83

220.73

210.48

629.04

633.26

(27)

28

Virginia

205.30

203.20

219.02

627.52

632.09

(28)

29

Oklahoma State

216.48

200.06

209.50

626.04

623.71

(29)

30

Michigan State

217.41

192.46

207.57

617.44

614.16

(30)

31

Arizona State

222.47

191.16

203.12

616.75

610.30

(31)

32

North Carolina

213.49

206.46

195.21

615.16

609.07

(32)

33

Penn State

222.38

195.04

189.32

606.74

595.72

(37)

34

Kentucky

225.45

194.59

184.53

604.57

590.93

(38)

35

West Virginia

196.38

200.76

202.70

599.84

601.95

(34)

36

TCU

188.06

194.42

214.45

596.93

605.73

(33)

37

Arizona

211.60

186.77

196.20

594.57

589.44

(39)

38

Missouri

195.14

188.17

209.81

593.12

598.01

(36)

39

Texas Tech

190.04

182.63

217.80

590.47

599.72

(35)

40

Vanderbilt

183.09

210.77

188.63

582.49

584.34

(40)

41

Maryland

184.35

190.61

201.23

576.19

581.82

(42)

42

Pittsburgh

184.56

195.38

196.06

576.00

579.83

(43)

43

California

173.56

191.00

206.62

571.18

582.20

(41)

44

Louisville

183.93

193.73

191.75

569.41

572.02

(45)

45

Rutgers

165.50

176.19

219.66

561.35

579.40

(44)

46

Wisconsin

204.85

191.25

157.60

553.70

537.95

(50)

47

Oregon State

164.97

186.45

192.40

543.82

552.96

(47)

48

South Florida

190.54

173.80

179.46

543.80

540.11

(49)

49

Utah

160.27

180.94

202.21

543.42

557.40

(46)

50

N.C. State

200.91

161.86

179.37

542.14

534.96

(52)

51

Iowa

172.60

169.95

197.80

540.35

548.75

(48)

52

Indiana

180.15

188.56

171.61

540.32

537.47

(51)

53

Northwestern

182.10

173.94

173.74

529.78

526.99

(53)

56

Purdue

157.42

159.12

184.62

501.16

510.23

(57)

60

Illinois

152.35

177.60

159.84

489.79

492.29

(61)

61

Minnesota

169.94

151.40

167.54

488.88

488.08

(62)

70

Brigham Young

160.55

153.42

142.95

456.92

451.05

(70)

76

UCF

165.79

136.69

111.10

413.58

395.35

(80)

85

Hawaii

108.61

138.94

121.92

369.47

373.91

(84)

108

UNLV

81.84

120.23

102.60

304.67

311.59

(103)

Based on recruiting rankings, Michigan has the seventh most talented roster in the nation, ahead of every Big Ten team and every 2015 opponent outside of Ohio State. Using the weighted total, Michigan has the fifth most talented roster in the nation, with a preponderance of talent in the upper classes.

Clearly, recruiting rankings aren't completely accurate predictors of college performance, but Michigan's superiority based on this metric is so vastly beyond every non-Ohio State opponent (Nebraska is next at 27th), that even if there is a margin for error, we should still rest assured that our players have the talent to compete in every game next year.

Now that we have a proven winner, leader, and developer-of-talent at the helm, we can feel good about our odds this next season. The talent is there. These kids came to Michigan with the expectation of being developed, being put in position to succeed, and being great. Get after it, Jim.

One of the staples of an efficient Jim Harbaugh offense has always been the running back position. In his time at Stanford he coached the likes of Toby Gerhart (a 3 star Recruit, who was not recruited by Jim Harbaugh’s staff), Stephan Taylor, and Tyler Gafney, both of whom were Harbaugh recruits. Below are Harbaugh’s year by year running back commits while at stanford, provided by (www.rivals.com).

The three most productive running backs from Stanford under Harbaugh in order are:

Toby Gerhart (3 Star) 2009 consensus All-American:

Rushing

Rushing

Rushing

Rushing

Receiving

Receiving

Receiving

Receiving

Scrimmage

Scrimmage

Scrimmage

Scrimmage

Year

School

Conf

Class

Pos

G

Att

Yds

Avg

TD

Rec

Yds

Avg

TD

Plays

Yds

Avg

TD

2006

Stanford

Pac-10

FR

RB

12

106

375

3.5

0

15

124

8.3

0

121

499

4.1

0

2007

Stanford

Pac-10

SO

RB

1

12

140

11.7

1

12

140

11.7

1

2008

Stanford

Pac-10

JR

RB

12

210

1136

5.4

15

13

114

8.8

0

223

1250

5.6

15

*2009

Stanford

Pac-10

SR

RB

13

343

1871

5.5

28

11

157

14.3

0

354

2028

5.7

28

Career

Stanford

671

3522

5.2

44

39

395

10.1

0

710

3917

5.5

44

Stephan Taylor (4 star):

Rushing

Rushing

Rushing

Rushing

Receiving

Receiving

Receiving

Receiving

Scrimmage

Scrimmage

Scrimmage

Scrimmage

Year

School

Conf

Class

Pos

G

Att

Yds

Avg

TD

Rec

Yds

Avg

TD

Plays

Yds

Avg

TD

*2009

Stanford

Pac-10

FR

RB

13

56

303

5.4

2

3

43

14.3

0

59

346

5.9

2

*2010

Stanford

Pac-10

SO

RB

13

223

1137

5.1

15

28

266

9.5

1

251

1403

5.6

16

*2011

Stanford

Pac-12

JR

RB

13

242

1330

5.5

10

25

182

7.3

2

267

1512

5.7

12

*2012

Stanford

Pac-12

SR

RB

14

322

1530

4.8

13

41

287

7

2

363

1817

5

15

Career

Stanford

843

4300

5.1

40

97

778

8

5

940

5078

5.4

45

Tyler Gafney (4 star):

Rushing

Rushing

Rushing

Rushing

Receiving

Receiving

Receiving

Receiving

Scrimmage

Scrimmage

Scrimmage

Scrimmage

Year

School

Conf

Class

Pos

G

Att

Yds

Avg

TD

Rec

Yds

Avg

TD

Plays

Yds

Avg

TD

*2009

Stanford

Pac-10

FR

RB

12

22

87

4

1

2

39

19.5

0

24

126

5.3

1

*2010

Stanford

Pac-10

SO

RB

10

60

255

4.3

4

3

60

20

2

63

315

5

6

*2011

Stanford

Pac-12

JR

RB

13

74

449

6.1

7

12

79

6.6

1

86

528

6.1

8

*2013

Stanford

Pac-12

SR

RB

14

330

1709

5.2

21

15

86

5.7

1

345

1795

5.2

22

Career

Stanford

486

2500

5.1

33

32

264

8.3

4

518

2764

5.3

37

All three of these backs were, or eventually became the featured back in Jim Harbaugh’s offense at Stanford. The most highly touted of three listed backs above was Stephan Taylor. Stephan Taylor possessed great vision and was good at both the power and zone running scheme. There is no doubt that Taylor benefited from having Andrew Luck as his quarterback while at Stanford, but this is one of the many parts of the Harbaugh Offense that will be relied upon heavily at Michigan.

Toby Gerhart who was not recruited by Jim Harbaugh, was only 3 star recruit but he was the leader of the Stanford offense in 2008, 2009. In 2009 Gerhart was a workhouse. He compiled over 1800 yards on the ground. This was big for the growth of the Stanford offense and the tough identity it would have under Jim Harbaugh and that same identity has continued under current Stanford coach David Shaw. Gerhart can also be credited for helping take pressure off of a young Andrew Luck who was still coming into his own in 2009.

This is the type of back Michigan needs in Harbaugh’s first year, a tough nosed guy, who can get the tough yards when needed and who can carry the load 25,30 times per game. This will be important for Michigan in 2015 while Harbaugh grooms a quarterback.

Harbaugh was at a severe disadvantage recruiting and as you can see his best recruit was a 4 star at the running back position. According to rivals Harbaugh did not get a single 5 star commit at Stanford. Andrew Luck was a 4 star, and even Owen Marecic was only a 2 star kid. The big disadvantage were academics at Stanford. If a kid did commit to Stanford, he had to wait to be admitted academically and there were instances a recruit, or commit did not get accepted. Jim will not have this problem at Michigan. Yes, Michigan is a highly regarded academic institution, but not quite on the level of Stanford.

Stephan Taylor Highlights: Sorry I can never get the embed to work.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_00ziPxn0Os

I have what I believe to be the four deep at the running back position for Michigan. We can argue the order all day, but I will start off with who I believe will line up first in 2015 for Michigan, based off of my own expectations.

1. Ty Issac, former 5 star recruit and number one ranked running back in the nation according to many recruiting sites out of high school. Click his name for more details.

2. Derek Green, Was also a 5 star guy out of high school. Rated the top back by many recruiting sites. Click his name for more.

3. Deveon Smith, a 4 star kid out of Ohio. He is a bruiser who seems to lack great vision but would never avoid contact. Click his name.

4. Drake Johnson, a 3 star kid who played in the shadows of the Big House, at Ann Arbor pioneer High School. If it were not for his ACL tear against the Buckeyes this past season I would have him at 1, or 2 on the depth chart. If he can fully recover, he has the ability to overtake all the other guys listed above him. He possesses great speed and vision. Johnson can run powerfully between the tackles and will not avoid contact. Click his name as well for more details.

The tape I chose to analyze was that of Ty Issac who played limited snaps his freshman season at USC before transferring to Michigan.

The Thing that stands out to me when I watched the above video, is that Ty Issac never tries to avoid contact. He is always lowering the boom on defenders, and this is important when you are running a power, or a zone rushing attack. He also has a knack for bouncing the play outside. My only concern is his pad level. As a running back you always want to get low when running. I foresee Issac being the lead back to start 2015, while splitting carries with Derrick Green.

Michigan has depth, and before derrick green was hurt last year he was starting to come on stronger. As long as the offensive line continues to improve, Michigan will have success running the ball in 2015 and this will be important for Jim Harbaugh while he is breaking in a new signal caller.

There have been a number of threads asking, essentially, “Now that Jim Harbaugh is our coach, what kind of recruiting class can we expect in 2015?” The most common answer has been “we should do okay in 2015 and then kill it in 2016.” That seems like a fairly safe assumption, but because we are all in “we got JH let’s party” mode, I figured I would take a look at how some other rock-star coaching hires have improved their teams’ recruiting in the recent past. I will use the Rivals database primarily since that seems to be the most popular and goes back sufficiently far.

1. Nick Saban – Alabama

Nick Saban became the 27th head coach of the Alabama Crimson Tide on January 3, 2007, and thus had roughly the same amount of time (actually, several days less) to assemble his inaugural 2007 recruiting class that Jim Harbaugh will have before NSD 2015.

At the time he signed, Alabama’s ’07 class had nine recruits with an average star rating of 3.33 (four 4-stars). Saban added 15 additional recruits to that class, including six 4-stars, to finish with the nation’s #10 class. This was Alabama’s best class yet in the Rivals era; in the five years preceding Saban’s arrival, Alabama had averaged a 24.4 recruiting class ranking.

Even so, Saban’s 2007 class would hardly compare to his 2008 harvest. With 32 overall signees at a 3.72 star average, Alabama signed the nation’s #1 recruiting class in 2008—headlined by 5-star WR Julio Jones. That 2008 class featured two other 5-stars (OL Tyler Love, ATH Burton Scott) and nineteen 4-stars (including eventual Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram, Jr.). Nick Saban’s performance at Alabama is, accordingly, “Exhibit A” for the suggestion that Harbaugh will help Michigan land a solid 2015 class, and a potentially great class in 2016.

2. Urban Meyer – Ohio State

Ohio State hired Urban Meyer around November 28, 2011, inheriting the machine from which Jim Tressel had departed earlier that year in disgrace. Fueled in part by free tattoos and extended “test drives,” as well as a prolonged period of Big Ten domination, Tressel’s recruiting classes had averaged #11.6 nationally in the five years preceding Meyer—including top-4 classes in 2008 and 2009.

Meyer, at most slightly handicapped by Tressel-related sanctions that would make the Buckeyes ineligible for post-season play in 2012, had significantly more time to assemble his first recruiting class than Saban had (or than JH will have). He used that time well, proceeding to land the nation’s #4-ranked class in 2012. That 25-member class included 5-stars Adolphus Washington and Noah Spence, fourteen 4-stars, and an overall 3.72 star average. His 2013 class was just as good (arguably better, though there isn’t much room to improve from #4) ranked #2 in the nation and featuring two more 5-stars (Vonn Bell and Mike Mitchell), sixteen 4-stars, and an overall 3.83 star average. Meyer has maintained this level of recruiting in 2014 (finishing #3 overall) and 2015 (sitting at #3 headed into NSD).

3. Steve Spurrier – South Carolina

Steve Spurrier became the Head Ball Coach at South Carolina on November 23, 2004, after Lou Holtz retired. The Gamecocks had been a league whipping boy since joining the SEC in 1991, but Holtz brought them to some measure of respectability by going 8-4 in 2000 and 9-3 in 2001. That success had begun to translate into recruiting, with South Carolina landing the nation’s #11 class in 2002 and the #8 class in 2003. But by 2004, Holtz’s Gamecocks were mired in mediocrity and their recruiting dipped back to historical levels (the team Spurrier took over had gone 6-5 in 2004, after signing the nation’s #38 recruiting class that spring).

Like Meyer, Spurrier had almost three full months to sign his first recruiting class—and with that time was able to sign the nation’s #23 class with six 4-stars and 28 overall players (2.96 star average). Spurrier signed a similar class in 2006: the #24 unit nationally, with six 4-stars, 24 total players, and a 3.08 star average. But in his third season (2007), Spurrier pulled in the nation’s #6 class—headlined by 5-star WR Chris Culliver and joined by fourteen 4-stars, 31 total players, and a 3.42 star average. Whether this 2007 class was Spurrier cashing-in on his rockstar status after a bit of delay and his 2005 SEC Coach of the Year award, or whether the modest 2006 class as a response to an NCAA investigation (through which South Carolina wound up on 3-year probation for violations that occurred under Holtz), or some combination thereof, is unclear. But since then, Spurrier has been able to maintain South Carolina’s recruiting at a high level—averaging #18.1 in the nation over the past seven cycles.

4. Bobby Petrino – Arkansas

Journeyman Bobby Petrino famously resigned from the Atlanta Falcons with three games remaining in their 2007 season to become head coach of the Arkansas Razorbacks in December 10, 2007. Like Urban Meyer, Petrino took over a strong program from a successful former coach—in this case, Houston Nutt, who’d bolted Fayetteville for Oxford, Mississippi.

Under Nutt, the Razorbacks had steadily recruited just inside the nation’s top-30 programs, finishing no worse than #31 and no better than #24 over the six preceding cycles (#27.2 average national ranking). Petrino’s first class (2008) ranked #36 nationally, however, Arkansas’ worst finish in the Rivals era. But Petrino’s second class, headlined by 5-star Darius Winston (and, though not counted, transfer Ryan Mallett coming off his sit-out year) ranked #16; with 31 players and an overall star average of 3.26, the 2009 class was far and away Arkansas’s best of the Rivals era. Interestingly, though, Petrino was the one rockstar coach who proved unable to sustain his recruiting success beyond the second year; Arkansas plummeted back to #49 in the 2010 cycle, and continued to recruit outside the top-30 for the remainder of Petrino’s tenure.

5. Bobby Petrino – Louisville (2)

Petrino was fired from the Arkansas job in April 2012 after a motorcycle accident led to the revelation of his adulterous affair with a colleague. He remained out of work until December of that year, when Western Kentucky hired him to replace Willie Taggart. He coached the Hilltoppers for a season, but then thriving Louisville head coach Charlie Strong took the head job at Texas. That left a vacancy at Petrino’s old program, and he promptly returned to the Cardinals for 2014.

Louisville announced Petrino on January 9, 2014, leaving him only about five weeks before national signing day. He still managed to sign thirteen recruits, to finish with 25 overall players and the nation’s #40 class (2.82 overall star average). While #40 may not sound impressive at first blush, Louisville averaged a #49.6 ranking in the five previous cycles (2009-2013), finishing inside the top-30 only once (#29 in 2011). And Louisville’s current recruiting class is ranked #27, which would make for a nice second-year bump if it holds up through NSD.

6. Pete Carroll – Southern Cal

Though arguably not really a rockstar at the time, I am including Pete Carroll anyway because any study of modern recruiting needs to include Pete Carroll. He took over the USC Trojans on December 15, 2000—meaning (i) he had about two more weeks to assemble his first recruiting class than JH will have, and (ii) that first class was assembled before the Rivals era.

The 2001 USC Trojans recruiting class featured only sixteen student-athletes—but among them were key contributors like Shaun Cody and Matt Leinert. Most of the sixteen were Paul Hackett recruits that Carroll locked-down after coming on board. The overall quality of the class is a matter of some disagreement, with Tom Lemming ranking it #9 nationally while SuperPrep ranked the USC class outside the national top-10 and behind both Washington and UCLA in the Pac-10.

Carroll signed the nation’s #13 class in 2002, with 20 overall recruits and fifteen 4-stars among them (3.1 overall star average). While that was undoubtedly a strong class, it was the following season when Carroll’s recruiting success really took off: the 2003 class featured two 5-stars (Reggie Bush and ATH Whitney Thomas), ten 4-stars, and 26 players (averaging 3.43 stars), good for #3 in the country. USC would finish with the nation’s #1-ranked recruiting classes in each of the next three years (before dropping to #2 in 2007).

Conclusion

Of the six cases of “rockstar coach hires” studied herein, three were able to improve upon their schools’ recent recruiting performances in the first cycle. But in two of those three instances, the incoming coach was taking over a strong program whose prior coach had left for greener pastures (Petrino, replacing Strong) or for reasons unrelated to failure on the field (Meyer, replacing Luke Fickell after Tressel). Most of the coaches were able to make a dramatic improvement in recruiting by year 2, however—and all of them by year 3. Only Petrino (at Arkansas) was unable to sustain that high-level recruiting beyond their second or third-year increases.

So, what does this mean for Harbaugh? I am no statistician, but I highly doubt there is enough of a sample size here for the numbers to mean anything. But for what it’s worth, the few existing examples suggest that Harbaugh should enable Michigan to sign a top-30ish class for 2015 (Michigan finished no worse than #31 in the past five recruiting cycles), improve significantly upon that with his second-year leap in 2016, and land top-10 (maybe top-5, comparable to Meyer/Saban/Carroll) classes consistently thereafter.