Investment-banking revenues had their worst first half since 2006, according to a report last week by Coalition, a London-based research firm. The weakest performance is in bond, currency and commodity trading, which accounts for 42% of revenue, down from almost two-thirds before the financial crisis. When bankers complain about regulation tying them down, this is what they mean. Shed a tear?

Because revenues have fallen faster than expenses, the industry’s return on capital has dropped to 6.7%. Its cost of capital, however, is in the 10% to 12% neighborhood.

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For Goldman, Morgan Stanley and the like, the encouraging news is they remain highly profitable and have fewer problems than Deutsche Bank or UBS and their never-ending restructuring. The grimmer news is shares of Goldman and Morgan Stanley are 21% and 27% lower, respectively, than 18 month ago. President Donald Trump’s trade wars and sluggish economic conditions overseas are taking a toll.

What could turn things around? If recession fears abated there could be a jump in corporate mergers, which produce a ton of fees. It would also help if WeWork went public at a hefty price, but right now WeWork isn’t working well as a possible initial public offering. Help could come from a Trump administration eager to ease the banks’ regulatory burden by reducing the amount of capital they must hold.

Still, making money in the markets figures to get harder in the years ahead. Late last month the $210 billion New York state pension fund dropped the long-term assumed rate of return on its investments to 6.8% from 7%. It was the third time the pension fund has cut its expected return since 2010, when it was 8%.

“The long-term outlook for investors is changing and requires a more conservative approach,” state Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli said in a statement.

If big buyers of investments are dialing down expectations, their dealers will have little choice but to follow.

A business I know well—journalism—has been permanently altered by the same technological upheaval attacking the livelihoods of traders, dealmakers and number-crunchers. Staffers at BuzzFeed and other news organizations have responded by unionizing so their owners will collectively bargain with them. It would be odd indeed for the Wall Street crowd to spend some of their bonus money casting their lot with organized labor. But given how precarious their jobs look, maybe they should.

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