Comments on: Wages, Employment, and Productivity https://chicagoboyz.net/archives/61765.html
Some Chicago Boyz know each other from student days at the University of Chicago. Others are Chicago boys in spirit. The blog name is also intended as a good-humored gesture of admiration for distinguished Chicago boys including those pictured above.Sat, 22 Feb 2020 21:30:50 +0000
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By: Mike K https://chicagoboyz.net/archives/61765.html#comment-1029556
Sat, 22 Feb 2020 21:30:50 +0000https://chicagoboyz.net/?p=61765#comment-1029556To attract high-quality immigrants, it might be more effective for us to reduce our welfare state payouts than to expect more from our dysfunctional immigration bureaucracy.

Trump is trying to enforce the “Public Charge” law on immigrants and is meeting furious resistance.

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By: Mike-SMO https://chicagoboyz.net/archives/61765.html#comment-1029555
Sat, 22 Feb 2020 21:30:05 +0000https://chicagoboyz.net/?p=61765#comment-1029555Seems like we have allowed the dim employees of the “Swamp” to skim from one side or the other until there was no there there. Used to be, or so I remember my parents sayin’, “All or none”. Either wages, profits, creativity, and productivity “all” increase or we all fail. The corruptocrats played one against the other until there was nothing left. The Orange Man and AOC both see that. AOC worked to block Amazon prosperity and to maintain her dependent party base. Kind of Lenin with buck teeth. That Neu Yawker, Donald of Orange, seems to see or sense that game; “All or none”. The latest cycle of the Corona plague may help him/us if the Asian Skimmers don’t fail into a convenient war in an attempt to survive. Them idiots killed tens of millions last time to keep their plush offices.

The guys with the shovels (“ped noir”?) made the Titanic go. The man with the brass on his hat doesn’t make the ship go, but he can keep it from hitting the big, bad stuff. When the guys “upstairs” were only inspecting their nethers, or those of the entertainment, they all drowned.

The “pointless” air shows in Syria and Iraq were subtle, brutal messages that were understood (forunately) by those who were not reading by the narrow glimmer of ideology, fantasy, or greed. Big League stuff.

I don’t particularly “like” “Captain Orange” but he is smart enough to be looking out the front window while trying to avoid the nasty stuff.

Hey! Who took my shovel?

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By: Mike K https://chicagoboyz.net/archives/61765.html#comment-1029554
Sat, 22 Feb 2020 21:29:04 +0000https://chicagoboyz.net/?p=61765#comment-1029554, I’ve seen quite a few immigrants from Mexico and further south who are indeed very hard-working and have in many cases started businesses.

I agree but almost all are from 20 years ago and more. My closest friend in medical school was the son of immigrant parents from Mexico. They had ten children, nine of which had graduate degrees. Ed had gone to college and medical school on scholarships funded by Francisco Bravo, who had founded the Bravo Clinic is east LA.

Francisco Bravo, a son of migrant farm workers who eventually came to own thousands of acres of his own farmland, has died in a Montebello hospital, it was learned this week.

His daughter, Francine Pumphrey, said her father–a seminal force in the financial development and self-determination of Latino East Los Angeles–died May 3. He had turned 80 the previous day and lived in Whittier.

Bravo, a former Los Angeles police commissioner and member of the state Agriculture Board, was, sequentially, a pharmacist, surgeon, clinic founder, banker and then rancher and landowner.

Born to poverty in Ventura County, he worked his way through the USC School of Pharmacy and then as a pharmacist through Stanford University School of Medicine.

His scholarships did not have to be repaid if the student practiced in a community with 25 % Spanish surnames. Ed settled in Chula Vista, south of San Diego,. His daughter joined him in practice of Surgery in later years. His mother never learned English and made her own tortillas. His father had a wrought iron business in east LA.

Those immigrants are from an earlier era. The more recent ones are mostly Indian and from villages that don’t speak Spanish, let alone English

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By: Jonathan https://chicagoboyz.net/archives/61765.html#comment-1029550
Sat, 22 Feb 2020 20:13:05 +0000https://chicagoboyz.net/?p=61765#comment-1029550I’m dubious about the idea of limiting immigration to those who are ‘high-skilled’ or who have substantial assets.

Yes. We want the best people to stay here, but because there is so much variability between individuals screening immigrants for qualities other than performance tends to lead to excessive focus on national origin, race etc. To attract high-quality immigrants, it might be more effective for us to reduce our welfare state payouts than to expect more from our dysfunctional immigration bureaucracy. As Jim Bennett said: Multiculturalism, open borders, a welfare state – pick any two.

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By: MCS https://chicagoboyz.net/archives/61765.html#comment-1029547
Sat, 22 Feb 2020 19:04:42 +0000https://chicagoboyz.net/?p=61765#comment-1029547Anonymous,
They were stocking. I’ve watched them on numerous days since I usually shop on Wednesday. I’ve overheard talk between the foreman and the crew. I was in the business for 6 years and know the difference. The store was reset about 3-4 months ago to free up space for online orders.

Wal-Marts, above all else, are rigidly planned. I’m sure that they have no trouble putting the Planogram on a smart phone. Hell, I could probably do it from memory.

What this does is allow them to reduce store personnel even more. It’s very rare to see anyone in the blue vest for workers or the yellow vest for managers more than 5 feet from the checkout lines. That it even further aggravates the customer experience doesn’t seem to matter. It’s not worth even going to a store from Sunday to Tuesday because they will be out of half of what you want. Aldi has become the same. The ultimate labor saving will be when they eliminate customers, they’ll be able to just lock the doors and walk away.

The jobs in the stores have become very specialized. From the problems getting a checker, you’d think it required a post-doc at least. The days when someone would go from stacking to bagging to checking to sweeping the floor in an hour are gone. So is having a checkout lane open as the line extends past the produce section. Having a dedicated crew is probably more efficient and probably reduces mistakes compared to a frequently interrupted generalist. It’s not particularly new, it just used to take place after hours.

Organizing, specializing and closely supervising greatly reduces the necessary quality of labor. It started long before Ford started building Model-T’s and probably went furthest during WWII. The RAF couldn’t have survived if Rolls Royce had continued to take 4 years to train every worker. There’s still lots of jobs that are at risk of this, probably far more than at risk of robots.

I’m sourly amused when I saw an article about how someone had taken the kind of machinery that have been producing frozen pizzas for decades and put them in store front. Bringing frozen pizza quality at restaurant prices to the masses. I’m sure this is the future of pizza delivery if you were planning a career; I wouldn’t.

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By: David Foster https://chicagoboyz.net/archives/61765.html#comment-1029546
Sat, 22 Feb 2020 18:37:07 +0000https://chicagoboyz.net/?p=61765#comment-1029546I’m dubious about the idea of limiting immigration to those who are ‘high-skilled’ or who have substantial assets. Do we really want to be effectively selling American citizenship? Are we confident in the ability of the Government to pick the truly valuable skills?

Historically, one could immigrate to America and could–and were expected to–make your own way. The equation is more complex now, of course, given the social ‘safety net’ and the much better communications with country of origin.

Just anecdotally, I’ve seen quite a few immigrants from Mexico and further south who are indeed very hard-working and have in many cases started businesses. Some intend to stay here permanently, some want to accumulate money for several years and eventually return to their home countries where living costs are a lot lower.

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By: Mike K https://chicagoboyz.net/archives/61765.html#comment-1029542
Sat, 22 Feb 2020 14:34:45 +0000https://chicagoboyz.net/?p=61765#comment-1029542Bringing in Englishmen would be fine, generally. I don’t think that’s who we will end up inviting, however.

First, repeal and replace the 1965 immigration law that Ted Kennedy wrote to stop immigration from “white Europe.”

I know a German master plumber who spent years on the waiting list for an immigration visa until he and his nurse midwife wife won a lottery and got to come to Tucson where he was almost immediately successful. It helped that they had 60,000 Euros in savings.

Our immigration laws are designed to discourage immigration for skilled people who look and act like Americans. Not all are white. I interviewed a Nigerian guy who was applying to the Army Reserve in Phoenix. He has a BS in Mechanical Engineering and an MS in Industrial Engineering, both in Nigeria. He told me that he had two choices for college majors, Engineering and Optometry. It sounds like Nigeria has its incentives aligned, unlike the US which provides student loans for Dance and Gender Studies.

I asked him if he was an Ibo tribe member and he was pleased that I knew about them. Of course he is.

When I first read this I figured that this would explain why my local Walmart is invariably out of several items I’d like to buy, but actually I think you were watching a reset crew change the store layout.

From personal experience long ago, it’s really helpful to know exactly where on the shelf the cans of early medium June peas are vis a vis the mixed peas with carrots, simply to avoid the completely unproductive time spent standing and searching the shelves in bewilderment.

Eventually, you’ll find where it goes- but if you need to stop and search for the locations of 200-300 different items in an 8-hour shift, you’ll leave a lot of boxes on the floor.

Not from personal experience you’ll get fired, too.

In other words, I don’t think it likely that Walmart thinks a set of contractors will know where to put things on the shelf more efficiently that the local store employees who are at that store every day.

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By: Mr Black https://chicagoboyz.net/archives/61765.html#comment-1029534
Sat, 22 Feb 2020 11:04:30 +0000https://chicagoboyz.net/?p=61765#comment-1029534Name the year in which white Americans are projected to be a minority in our own country. From that data point, we’ll discuss immigration policy.
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By: Assistant Village Idiot https://chicagoboyz.net/archives/61765.html#comment-1029530
Sat, 22 Feb 2020 04:40:39 +0000https://chicagoboyz.net/?p=61765#comment-1029530The hidden assumption is that any new immigrant coming in is going to be instantly at the American average for workers. When stated openly, anyone can see that it’s false. But advocates and policymakers just running along heedlessly treat them as interchangeable units. We have x open jobs, we should bring in x people, so they think.

Bringing in Englishmen would be fine, generally. I don’t think that’s who we will end up inviting, however. Considering the long run and world stability, we might want to encourage the best and brightest of every country to fix their own places rather than come here. I can understand why they don’t want to do that, though.

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By: d https://chicagoboyz.net/archives/61765.html#comment-1029528
Sat, 22 Feb 2020 04:04:44 +0000https://chicagoboyz.net/?p=61765#comment-1029528>Immigration is a losing issue everywhere, except in the United States. But soon, it will be here too. Because the immigration = economic growth = societal wealth argument is now as observably and objectively false as the free trade = economic growth = societal prosperity argument.<

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By: Tom Holsinger https://chicagoboyz.net/archives/61765.html#comment-1029525
Sat, 22 Feb 2020 02:38:40 +0000https://chicagoboyz.net/?p=61765#comment-1029525This discussion will likely be blown away by the coronavirus epidemic. Let’s wait a year or two to see how that comes out.
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By: d https://chicagoboyz.net/archives/61765.html#comment-1029523
Sat, 22 Feb 2020 02:06:23 +0000https://chicagoboyz.net/?p=61765#comment-1029523“We are desperate — desperate — for more people,” Mulvaney said at the gathering in England. “We are running out of people to fuel the economic growth that we’ve had in our nation over the last four years. We need more immigrants.”

Get rid of the 10 -40 million illegals and get 49 million out of the labor force employed, then we can talk about more legal immigrants.

“We are desperate — desperate — for more people,” Mulvaney said at the gathering in England. “We are running out of people to fuel the economic growth that we’ve had in our nation over the last four years. We need more immigrants.”

I don’t think these comments were intended for public release.

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By: David Foster https://chicagoboyz.net/archives/61765.html#comment-1029521
Sat, 22 Feb 2020 01:24:30 +0000https://chicagoboyz.net/?p=61765#comment-1029521Some data: BLS analysis in the ‘persons not in the labor force’ category and their reasons for being in this category.

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By: Anonymous https://chicagoboyz.net/archives/61765.html#comment-1029520
Sat, 22 Feb 2020 01:23:17 +0000https://chicagoboyz.net/?p=61765#comment-1029520“That would not occur, though (the ‘make more money’ part), if the only source in demand was the same group of people whose numbers declined…because their demand be driven by fewer people….and the production would be getting done by the same % of the original people.”

All of that is going to depend entirely on the distribution of the deaths. If, as we might surmise, it eliminates a lot of dead weight in terms of the non-working population (elderly, non-productive homeless, etc.), then the only people losing out are going to be the caregivers who survive. Close a bunch of homeless outreach operations, and you’ve suddenly got unemployed caseworkers and others. The rest of us go on as before, with cleaner city streets. Net gains to productivity? Well, you’re suddenly saving a bunch on public sanitation.

On the other hand… Say you instead lose a bunch of mid-level skilled employees that make things–That opens up a lot of room for advancement for the lower-skilled, and creates a bunch of costs you didn’t have before because those skilled employees saved you money, and the new ones are still on the “expensive” side of the learning curve. Opportunities become good for the less-skilled, and they make more money because of it.

The market may tighten because we lose a bunch of customers, but on the other hand, you still have to have people around to do things. It’s all going to depend on who winds up dead, disturbingly enough. Some good might actually come out of it all, but at what cost?

Whole thing is going to be very dislocating, and that’s going to cost money, but… As with anything, there will be opportunities. Hell, I’d love to have shares in a company that makes face masks, right now. Or, any other health-care product, for that matter.

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By: David Foster https://chicagoboyz.net/archives/61765.html#comment-1029518
Sat, 22 Feb 2020 01:05:27 +0000https://chicagoboyz.net/?p=61765#comment-1029518Kirk…”One would do well to pay attention to the lessons of history, and recall one of the side-effects of the Black Death. You lose a chunk of your labor force, the survivors are gonna make a lot more money, and be in the driver’s seat as things ramp back up.”

That would not occur, though (the ‘make more money’ part), if the only source in demand was the same group of people whose numbers declined…because their demand be driven by fewer people….and the production would be getting done by the same % of the original people. I’d think there would need to be either a non-population constraint on production (probably land), or some other source of demand, such as the nobility.

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By: MCS https://chicagoboyz.net/archives/61765.html#comment-1029517
Sat, 22 Feb 2020 00:50:39 +0000https://chicagoboyz.net/?p=61765#comment-1029517There are a lot of ways to increase productivity besides mechanization. Wal-Mart seems to be using contractors to restock their stores. A whole crew descends on the store, breaks down the pallets that have been delivered and puts the merchandise on the shelves in a few hours, then, presumably, moves on. It’s terrifically inconvenient if you happen to be trying to shop at the same time but I assume it’s more efficient than having the regular complement of the store do it. No technology needed and we’re a pretty long way from a robot that can do it.

Mechanization requires first of all capital with payback periods that generally range to years. A lot of businesses aren’t either able or willing to do it. Adding employees that can be let go when things slow down is seen as a lesser risk.

Mechanization requires a well ordered work flow and consistent materials. This is often unrecognized. People, even in menial jobs, are capable of extensive adaptability and improvisation. Having to deal with inconsistent materials will greatly increase complexity and cost. There are still a lot of things that are easy for a person to do that are nearly impossible for a machine. The converse is also true, but most of that has already been mechanized. It’s still easier to increase production incrementally by hiring a couple more guys.

Mechanization requires time, first for planning and design, then for procurement and construction and finally for commissioning and training. All of the experts, equipment and labor may be, probably are, in limited supply. Even then, the time most lacking in a lot of businesses, especially small a one, is management. They not only have to keep the present business running, they have to plan and figure out how to run a different one.

Mechanization will require at least partially, a new work force. One that can operate the new machines. This will have to come from the present one by training. The supply is already very thin. You’re not going to be able simply hire enough trained people off the street, not when everyone else is trying to do the same thing.

In the short term, there is no escaping the law of supply and demand. Wages will rise, some jobs will go away and some services will become more expensive. It may no longer be economic to hire someone to stand beside the road, twirling a sign.

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By: Kirk https://chicagoboyz.net/archives/61765.html#comment-1029516
Fri, 21 Feb 2020 23:51:21 +0000https://chicagoboyz.net/?p=61765#comment-1029516One would do well to pay attention to the lessons of history, and recall one of the side-effects of the Black Death.

You lose a chunk of your labor force, the survivors are gonna make a lot more money, and be in the driver’s seat as things ramp back up.

China is probably going to be unrecognizable after all this is over. The CCP has been used to a state of affairs where they had untold riches, in terms of human resources. Now? Not so much… They are about to find out what it’s like to live in a China where the Party can’t expend people like bullets, and I imagine that many of the elite are going to have problems coming to terms with that, or making the leap.

Of course, it all depends on how many people succumb to this pandemic we seem to be in the early stages of.