JETS Key to victory: Third and long conversions!

The most important statistic to watch in Sunday’s Divisional game between the Jets and Patriots is 3rd and long (7 or more yards to go) conversions by each team. That is, which team does a much better job converting 3rd and long situations. To keep the ball and scoring drives alive, sooner or later the offense will have to convert one or more 3rd and long situations. Belichick and Brady are the cream of the crop in these situations. They design plays that take their average receivers and make them look like superstars. Synergy is the best way to describe the Patriot offense; the whole produces much more than the sum of the individuals can produce apart.

Belichick takes the throw-a-ways of other teams and finds ways to convert them into assets for his team. He forces the other teams to play his type of game where he has the advantage!

Look at the Patriot offense. Other than Brady, Moss and Welker, I bet you couldn’t name too many of them in the beginning of the year? Then take away Randy Moss and add Branch. Now, how does this offense become one of the best in football?

On the other hand, the Jets – who have more offensive talent and better known players than the Patriots, have not had the same success! It seems the Jets have to get into desperate situations before they air the ball to Edwards and Holmes. I get that Sanchez is not Brady, but every NFL QB should be able to consistently hit receivers. Certainly, no one thinks that Edwards, Holmes, Keller and Cotchery have been utilized to their full potential? Now, contrast that with the utilization of the Patriot receivers. See what I mean?

The biggest under-utilization in the 2010 NY Jets is their offense. Keller and Cotchery have been underutilized in the middle of the field where slower line backers or smaller safeties will have to cover them. This is a big Jets advantage. Look at the success they had in the beginning of the year when Keller had 5 touchdowns. Why are they not going to him more often; especially in the red zone? Do you think Belichick would take advantage of this mismatch? You bet!

Bello/Getty ImagesTom Brady not looking dapper during the Ravens beating in the playoffs last year.

With the correct mix of plays (running, short outs or slants, medium and deep balls), the Jets should be at least as dynamic as the Patriots on offense! See it’s more than Brady! It’s running the right plays at the right time. It’s running the right routes. It’s keeping things simple. It’s taking what the defense gives you. It’s not as though they don’t have good enough players, they do. I believe it’s because their offensive coach is not taking advantage of their talents. He isn’t using his players synergistically like Belichick.

The key to this game will be limiting Brady’s possessions as the Jets did with Peyton Manning last week. In order for that to happen, the Jets will need to hold the Patriots on 3rd and long situations to get Brady back on the bench and the Jets offense will have to convert 3rd and long situations by synergistically using their talents to keep him there! If they can do that, the Jets will win the game!