Really Now, I'm Syria

As I write this, we are approximately three weeks past the second, and much more horrible, gassing of Syrian people by the Assad regime. The television and print media in the USA and abroad are filled with heart-rending images of suffering and dying children, grieving parents, and angry denunciations of Assad by those who are seeking to depose him. Congress is preparing to hold hearings on President Obama’s request to take military action against Assad’s government and the usual “talking heads” are opining on what, if anything, the USA and its allies should do to respond to this horrific event. In other words, this is the perfect opportunity for me to discuss my take on all of this! President Obama, of course, created a political problem for his administration by declaring, some time ago, that the use of chemical weapons was a redline that would cause the USA to act against whomever used them in the Syrian conflict. Since the Assad government has long been suspected of having such weapons, the warning was really directed at him. It is generally agreed by thinking people that President Obama should stick to his teleprompter in the future. Quincy Jones put it best in his song “The Dude” when he said, “Don’t let your mouth write a check that your body can’t cash!” Apparently, President Obama never heard that song since he definitely wrote a check that he’s now finding hard to cash.

With the average American sick and tired of policing the world—and paying for it—Congress is getting an earful from constituents. Being the heroic standard bearers for honor and integrity that they are, congress critters are rapidly abandoning the President and his call for military action. It doesn’t help, of course, that he and his administration are trying to avoid saying things like “military action” or “war.” Talking to the American people like they are idiots got him 53% of the vote last November, so you can’t really blame him for thinking that is the way to sell an idea to the populace. However, voting for a promise of free everything isn’t the same as asking folks to spend blood and treasure on other people who hate us. Statecraft is hard to sell to a population that doesn’t give a damn about geopolitical gamesmanship. In my opinion, were President Obama to tell the American public that, if we don’t act, Russia will have a strategic edge in Syria, he would be greeted with a “So what?” by the vast majority of the citizenry.

So, having created a political conflagration by, for once, speaking without a teleprompter, President Obama now finds himself dangling in the wind, with precious few friends. As of today’s polls, only 33% of Americans favor military action in Syria. Even our old friend, England, has taken a pass on supporting us. Perhaps, if he hadn’t dissed them at every opportunity after getting elected, they would feel differently, but I doubt it. Even if he had kept the bust of Churchill in the oval office, the English could still sniff out a sour deal in Syria! In the middle of the national, indeed global, debate, Putin’s Russia stands to make gains. Demonstrating his continued disdain for the “boy President,” President Putin first vowed to block any USA proposals to the United Nations calling for military action in response to the Syrian use of chemical weapons.

Then, his ambassador to Syria floated the idea that, in lieu of a military response, Syria should agree to identifying their stores of chemical weapons, allow international observers to monitor the weapons, and permit the eventual removal and destruction of those weapons by international forces. So far, it appears that the Syrian government, after denying they had any chemical weapons, agreed in principle with the Russian proposal. It turns out that having an alternative to a Tomahawk cruise missile landing on your head is considered a good idea, even in an ever more radicalized Damascus. It already appears that the sycophants in the major media are trying to make believe that the Russian proposal is a product of the Obama administration’s “brilliant” statecraft. First, they have attributed the idea to Secretary of State Kerry because he made a statement about Syria giving up its chemical weapons last week. Second, it has been postulated that the Russians came up with this proposal as a result of “back channel” negotiations between the White House and President Putin’s administration. This appears to be a particularly long stretch, but the supportive press can be depended upon to always find
a reason, even a fraudulent one, for praising our president!

Obviously, no one knows for sure where this will end up. However, allow me to fearlessly predict some future events. I predict that President Assad, of Syria, will eagerly agree to the loss of his chemical weapons. I further predict that Syria, already a client state of Russia, will grow even closer ties to them. Meanwhile, the blood of the dead will cry out for vengeance and Syria is in for a prolonged extension of their civil war. Neither Assad, nor his opponents, has sufficient support inside or outside the borders of Syria to achieve a final victory. Therefore, after another bout of violence (and many more civilian deaths), a political power sharing arrangement will be sought and Russian politicians will broker the deal—effectively snubbing American efforts to direct the situation. President Obama will do his dead level best to make it seem as though the Russian effort was his idea, but President Putin will make derisive comments sufficient to let it be known that “Professor” Obama had nothing to do with it. Middle Eastern leaders will have to recognize that Russia has a strong hand in the region and will, consequently, try to balance themselves between Russia and the USA in yet another proxy fight between these two countries. The world will go on turning. Civil strife will break out elsewhere, with all eyes turning away from Syria. Israel will take out Iran’s nuclear facilities. President Obama will express his frustration with the fact that Israel didn’t do what he wanted and will make threatening comments (but never back them up for fear of the many Israel supporters in this country). Finally, a new president will ascend to the office in 2017. The American people will sigh with relief and look to see what a more experienced hand does to lead the nation. In the meantime, I pray that Russia’s bid to end the current sabre rattling will work. If it does, some lives will be spared death from above, the USA’s military won’t spend another hundred million or so in materiel, and we may avoid having to choose between the murderous Assad and his murderous foes. I think I’m going to go listen to Quincy Jones!