The job market is on the road to recovery. Initial
claims for unemployment insurance fell to 341,000 (-5.5% y/y) during
the week ended February 9 versus a revised 368,000 a week earlier,
reported initially as 366,000. Consensus expectations were for 360,000
claims. The four week moving average of claims ticked up to 352,500, still
near the low for the economic recovery. During the last ten years, there
has been a 75% correlation between the level of claims and the m/m change
in nonfarm payrolls.

Continuing claims for unemployment insurance in the week ended February
2 fell to 3.114M (-9.6% y/y). The four week moving average of continuing
claims dropped to 3.187M., a new recovery low. The insured rate of
unemployment also continued its downward trend and declined to 2.4%, the
lowest level since July 2008. This particular count covers only
"regular" programs and does not include all extended benefit and
other specialized jobless insurance programs. In the week of January 26,
the latest figure available, the grand total of all benefit recipients
nudged up again to a not seasonally adjusted 5.918M, down 23.0% from a
year ago. That compares to a cycle peak of 12.060M in January 2010.

By state, the insured unemployment rate continued to vary
greatly with South Dakota (1.26%), Virginia (1.55%), Texas (1.63%),
Florida (1.70%), Utah (1.97%), Tennessee (2.04%), Indiana (2.33%) and Ohio
(2.53%) at the low end of the range. At the high end were Michigan
(3.44%), New York (3.50%), Massachusetts (3.76%), California (3.80%),
Wisconsin (4.15%), New Jersey (4.27%), Pennsylvania (4.37%) and Alaska
(6.57%).

Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY
database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for
individual states are in REGIONW. The consensus estimates come from
the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.