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POTENTIAL FOR A DRY MICROBURST OR TWO APPEARS TO BE INCREASINGACROSS S-CNTRL AZ --INCLUDING THE GREATER PHOENIX METRO-- LATE THISAFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. STORMS THAT DEVELOP/DECAY MAYPOSE AN ISOLD DMGG WIND RISK. VERY ISOLD NATURE OF THREAT WILLPRECLUDE THE NEED FOR SEVERE TSTM WATCH CONSIDERATION.

SURFACE/SATELLITE COMPOSITE SHOWS HOT TEMPS IN THE 110S ACROSS THELOWER DESERTS S OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. DEEPENING CONVECTION/STORMSARE PROPAGATING WWD FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN TOWARDS S-CNTRL AZ. GIVEN THE HOT SURFACE TEMPS AND MARGINAL MOISTURE...SURFACE T/TDSPREADS OF OVER 70 DEG F HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE FROM THE SURFACE TOMID LEVELS...WHICH WILL BE VERY CONDUCIVE FOR DOWNDRAFT TRANSPORT. MAIN LIMITING FACTORS FOR A MORE APPRECIABLE DMGG WIND THREAT ARE 1)LACK OF RICHER MOISTURE 2) WEAK TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. DESPITE THOSEFACTORS...KIWA 88D IMAGERY DISPLAYED A MICROBURST SIGNATURE NEAR THEPINAL/MARICOPA COUNTY LINE IN THE PAST HOUR AND AN ELONGATED COLDPOOL SURGING WWD OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASEIN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENINGHOURS AS STORMS/COLD POOLS MOVE WWD TOWARDS THE I-17 CORRIDOR NEARAND N OF THE PHX METRO.

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RECEIVED PICTURE OF HAIL GREATER THAN 2.25 INCHES IN MILL CREEK. RELAYED BY WNDU.

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1101106

$$

BENTLEY

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STRUCTURAL DAMAGE AT APARTMENT COMPLEX ON PINEWOOD DR. DUE TO FALLEN TREES

&&

$$

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HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 60 MILES NORTHNORTHWEST OF AKRON COLORADO TO 65 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF LIMONCOLORADO. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THEASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS AREFAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCHAREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FORTHREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTSAND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLYDO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 583...WW 584...WW 585...

DISCUSSION...SHEAR/CAPE PROFILES SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENTMOVING EWD FROM THE FRONT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. PRIMARYTHREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS. HOWEVER THERE ISTHE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST ISOLATED TORNADOES BY LATER THISAFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SUPERCELLS MOVING EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS WHERESEVERE PARAMETERS SHOULD BE GREATER.

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CORRIDOR OF INTENSE DOWNBURST WIND DAMAGE FOUND JUST WEST OF DANBURY. 1/4 MILE WIDE AND 500 YD LONG AREA WHERE EVERY TREE WAS SNAPPED OR FLATTENED. CONSISTENT WITH STRAIGHT-LINE WIND DAMAGE PATTERNS. WIND SPEEDS ESTIMATED TO BE IN EXCESS OF 100 MPH BASED ON OBSERVED DAMAGE.

&&

CORRECTED TO PROVIDE A WIND SPEED ESTIMATE BASED ON THE DAMAGE SURVEY.

$$

LAMERS

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TERREBONNE PARISH EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED DOWNED TREES...DOWNED POWER LINES AND A OVERTURNED TRAILER HOME IN THE BOBTOWN COMMUNITY ALONG GRAND CALLIOU ROAD.

&&

$$

98/SO

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TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WINDGUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESEAREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTEMILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OFMILES CITY MONTANA TO 40 MILES WEST OF SIDNEY NEBRASKA. FOR ACOMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINEUPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FORTORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCHAREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FORTHREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTSAND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 583...WW 584...

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM OVEREASTERN WY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCHAREA THROUGH THE EVENING. SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASING LOW LEVELWINDS...COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL PROMOTESUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS BY 00Z ALSO SUGGEST A RISK OF A FEWTORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAILSURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACEWIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26030.

...HART

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SC HIGHWAY PATROL REPORTS A TREE DOWN ON CROSS SWAMP RD NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF MOSELLE RD

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1100622

$$

JAQ

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PUBLIC CALLED IN A REPORT TO LAW ENFORCEMENT OF HAIL ESTIMATED AT QUARTER SIZE IN THE VICINITY OF ROCK HILL ROAD AND EGLIN TERRITORY SITE C-6 ROAD.

&&

$$

DVD

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HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 75MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES SOUTH OFVALPARAISO INDIANA TO COLUMBIA MISSOURI. FOR A COMPLETEDEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS AREFAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCHAREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FORTHREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTSAND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLYDO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

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