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Nathan T_ Freeman

Posted 10 April 2013 - 08:25 PM

Nathan T_ Freeman

600 posts

As long as you can buy goods with bitcoin, it will outperform fiat currency. As long as drugs and guns are controlled by the state, you will be able to buy guns and drugs with bitcoin. As long as you can buy drugs and guns with bitcoin, you will be able to buy other things that drug sellers and gun sellers want with bitcoin.

Therefore bitcoin will actually crash when the Drug War ends. And as long as the state tightens its grip, more voluntary transactions and therefore more wealth will move to bitcoin.
The fact that the total market cap of bitcoin allows it to be manipulated in measures of fiat currency just means that speculators can speculate. Well, let them. The truth is on the side of those who recognize that fiat currency is a QUADRILLION dollar scam, and so even if BTC turns out to be a BILLION dollar scam, you're still a million times better off.

ribuck

Posted 11 April 2013 - 04:29 AM

ribuck

1394 posts

Very well put, Nathan.

It can hardly be called "tanking" when something is trading at the same price as a few weeks ago, and trading at many times what it was trading for a couple of months ago. The price should just be called "volatile" instead of "tanking".

The price may indeed "tank" in the future. Or it might go to half a million dollars. Max Keiser advocates putting 2.5% of your wealth into Bitcoin. That's a small enough proportion that most people can afford to risk losing it all.

There's no point holding bitcoins unless you are willing to ride this thing wherever it takes you. It's going to be an exciting year!

Wesley

Posted 11 April 2013 - 04:37 AM

Wesley

Self-Excavator

1412 posts

OMG, it hasn't been this low in, like, two weeks!

Yea, it is kinda funnny. I am still up like 1200% in the past few months. The recent media attention did bring in a lot of new adopters and speculators driving up the price very quickly. The fact that it gets ahead of itself and pulls back to a still very high price is funny. If it gets too low, I would have to invest more money into bitcoin.

PatrickC

Posted 11 April 2013 - 06:02 AM

PatrickC

London Meetup organiser

3315 posts

Well if you want to buy more, then buy now whilst it's dipping. Although I get that many folk wont necessarily feel like buying more whilst it remains much higher than a month ago, but that is the tecnique. However, I think it's wise advice from Mr keiser, although I would probably risk a little more, like 5%. I am also curious to listen to the video Alan presented to get an opposing take on it, when I get home later.

Posted 11 April 2013 - 06:25 AM

Here's a summary of his reasons for why the price is going crazy right now:

1. A handful of "respectable" online merchants are now accepting Bitcoin...
2. Cyprus scared the hell out of everyone...
3. Venture capital (and private investor) money is moving into Bitcoin...
4. An increasingly wide swath of the libertarian/gold & silver "hard money" types are buying into Bitcoin...
5. The FinCEN ruling clarified the government's stance on Bitcoin about 3 weeks ago...
6. The press attention gained from all of the above real-world events is fueling a huge amount of hype (justified or not).
7. Ignorant, foolish people are buying bitcoins simply because the price
is going up and they think (consciously or unconsciously) that this
means it'll go up tomorrow...

zg7666

Posted 11 April 2013 - 07:05 AM

zg7666

237 posts

OMG, it hasn't been this low in, like, two weeks!

Yea, it is kinda funnny. I am still up like 1200% in the past few months. The recent media attention did bring in a lot of new adopters and speculators driving up the price very quickly. The fact that it gets ahead of itself and pulls back to a still very high price is funny. If it gets too low, I would have to invest more money into bitcoin.

am also think something like that. I'm intrigued, what is for you low or "too low" price!?

zg7666

Posted 11 April 2013 - 08:02 AM

zg7666

237 posts

Mt.Gox - "First of all we would like to reassure you but no we were not last night victim of a DDoS but instead victim of our own success!

Indeed the rather astonishing amount of new account opened in the last few days added to the existing one plus the number of trade made a huge impact on the overall system that started to lag. As expected in such situation people started to panic, started to sell Bitcoin in mass (Panic Sale) resulting in an increase of trade that ultimately froze the trade engine!..."

Wesley

Posted 11 April 2013 - 08:09 AM

Wesley

Self-Excavator

1412 posts

OMG, it hasn't been this low in, like, two weeks!

Yea, it is kinda funnny. I am still up like 1200% in the past few months. The recent media attention did bring in a lot of new adopters and speculators driving up the price very quickly. The fact that it gets ahead of itself and pulls back to a still very high price is funny. If it gets too low, I would have to invest more money into bitcoin.

am also think something like that. I'm intrigued, what is for you low or "too low" price!?

I was looking for a price under 100, but I'm not sure it will hit that anymore, especially if the above Mt. Gox statement is true that it was just too many people jumping on the BTC bandwagon being the problem. Who knows what will happen. I am much better at long term investment and speculation that day trading and calling tops and bottoms in a crazy market like this.

zg7666

Posted 11 April 2013 - 04:48 PM

zg7666

237 posts

I was looking for a price under 100, but I'm not sure it will hit that anymore, especially if the above Mt. Gox statement is true that it was just too many people jumping on the BTC bandwagon being the problem. Who knows what will happen. I am much better at long term investment and speculation that day trading and calling tops and bottoms in a crazy market like this.

OK, thanks for that info. I was hoping for the same. As I see it, elsewhere price dropped even to 55$ or so, will see what happens

ribuck

Posted 12 April 2013 - 03:19 AM

It's taking on the charactertistics of a pyramid scheme with early adopters making money off of latecomers.

It's not just taking those characteristics, that all it ever was and ever will be!

1. You don't think Bitcoin provides value to the latecomers?

2. You don't think the early adopters took an enormous risk of losing all the time and money that they put into it, given that every previous digital currency had failed?

Anyone who wishes to be an early adopter can still become one. Fewer than 0.01% of the world's population holds Bitcoins (conservative estimate), so feel free to join the Bitcoin economy.

So why is everyone is not jumping in? It's because there is a market where the price adjusts until the benefit of owning bitcoins (adjusted for the risk) equals the benefit of not holding them (adjusted for the lack of risk). That's why there is (and always has been) a seller for every buyer. A free market is a rare and truly beautiful thing.

Wesley

Posted 12 April 2013 - 04:15 AM

Wesley

Self-Excavator

1412 posts

I was looking for a price under 100, but I'm not sure it will hit that anymore, especially if the above Mt. Gox statement is true that it was just too many people jumping on the BTC bandwagon being the problem. Who knows what will happen. I am much better at long term investment and speculation that day trading and calling tops and bottoms in a crazy market like this.

OK, thanks for that info. I was hoping for the same. As I see it, elsewhere price dropped even to 55$ or so, will see what happens

I had left order for 38,7€ which is around 50$.

Price is 77 as I am writing this. Which is tempting me. I would agree that 50 would be a definite purchase for me.

Arius

Posted 12 April 2013 - 04:39 AM

Arius

786 posts

The bottom of despair is probably in the single digits or high teens. We haven't even hit the bull trap yet. There's no point in buying before the dead cat bounce which, given the last post, is going to be near $50.

On top of all that, did you guys know the ASIC servers are coming online in the next 2 months? The network difficulty is about to go right through the roof. There's going to be really dramatic unloading and shuffling until the network stabilizes around the new production paradigm.

RestoringGuy

Posted 12 April 2013 - 05:02 AM

RestoringGuy

1056 posts

On top of all that, did you guys know the ASIC servers are coming online in the next 2 months? The network difficulty is about to go right through the roof. There's going to be really dramatic unloading and shuffling until the network stabilizes around the new production paradigm.

Neglecting power or equipment cost, is it today simply a waste of time to start with GPU?

Arius

Posted 12 April 2013 - 05:16 AM

ASICs are, quite literally, a thousand times more productive per dollar of hardware. Butterfly Labs has already started shipping. The reviews from the BTC forum are extremely favorable. GPUs are about to go the way of PS2 mining, lost in the sands of time.

Arius

Posted 12 April 2013 - 05:38 AM

Arius

786 posts

I should add that GPUs have additional costs which ASIC servers do not. Namely, you can hook more than 2 ASIC servers to a single computer. Most PCs max out at 3 or 4 GPUs. With a series of USB hubs, it would be possible to hook an unlimited number of ASIC servers into a single computer. As such, you save a ton of money on support (non-revenue generating) hardware. Really, who wants a dozen motherboards anyway?

Arius

Posted 12 April 2013 - 05:43 AM

zg7666

Posted 12 April 2013 - 07:11 AM

zg7666

237 posts

Price is 77 as I am writing this. Which is tempting me. I would agree that 50 would be a definite purchase for me.

The bottom of despair is probably in the single digits or high teens. We haven't even hit the bull trap yet. There's no point in buying before the dead cat bounce which, given the last post, is going to be near $50.

On top of all that, did you guys know the ASIC servers are coming online in the next 2 months? The network difficulty is about to go right through the roof. There's going to be really dramatic unloading and shuffling until the network stabilizes around the new production paradigm.

...And there's the bounce at $50.

Well let us hope that that is the case I will go with Arius's suggestion.

I have read something about ASIC and mining difficulty... I'm just curious, since you seem to be well informed, do you know whats up with those 6mil BC mined by early comers? I've also read that 1mil BC is in 250 wallets.. how did they act in last few days?

st434u

Posted 12 April 2013 - 07:45 AM

2. You don't think the early adopters took an enormous risk of losing all the time and money that they put into it, given that every previous digital currency had failed?

Yes. And this will certainly be no exception.

Anyone who wishes to be an early adopter can still become one. Fewer than 0.01% of the world's population holds Bitcoins (conservative estimate), so feel free to join the Bitcoin economy.

Haha, so your bet is that the whole world is going to jump on this bandwagon. That's quite the bet.

So why is everyone is not jumping in? It's because there is a market where the price adjusts until the benefit of owning bitcoins (adjusted for the risk) equals the benefit of not holding them (adjusted for the lack of risk). That's why there is (and always has been) a seller for every buyer. A free market is a rare and truly beautiful thing.

There is no fundamental benefit of holding bitcoins, it's just a speculative bet that you can sell them before everyone else does, and/or that more foolish investors are going to come down the line and/or some of the same investors will put up more money and bid the price up before you sell.

If you want to get past the illusion veil that has been cast over bitcoins and understand their core problem and the true nature of money, come to the economics forum. You'll find the thread there. My first post is third from the bottom in page 7 (standard view)

ribuck

Posted 12 April 2013 - 08:20 AM

If a person perceives that Bitcoin provides no value to them, that person can ignore Bitcoin, They needn't feel threatened by it.

2. You don't think the early adopters took an
enormous risk of losing all the time and money that they put into it,
given that every previous digital currency had failed?

Yes. And this will certainly be no exception.

If you're certain that Bitcoin will fail, you can make a massive fortune by shorting it. You can be one of the "early adopters" amongst those who predict Bitcoin's failure.

Anyone who wishes to be an early adopter can
still become one. Fewer than 0.01% of the world's population holds
Bitcoins (conservative estimate), so feel free to join the Bitcoin
economy.

Haha, so your bet is that the whole world is going to jump on this bandwagon. That's quite the bet.

I have made no bet. I'm responding to those who express early adopter envy, by pointing out that there is still plenty of time to be an early adopter. That does not depend on the "whole world" jumping into Bitcoin. It just depends on substantially more than 0.01% of the world's population jumping into Bitcoin.

Bitcoin's fundamentals are very strong: a provably-honest shared ledger, no need to trust any third party (e.g. a bank), fast and low-cost global payments. Sure it might fail though. For example, Google could release a competing crypto-currency before Bitcoin reaches critical mass.

My personal opinion is in five years' time, Bitcoin will have either failed (and be worthless), or will be in near-universal use and will be worth much more than it is now. That's all. I'm not making any "bet". I own some bitcoins, and I own some fiat.

There is no fundamental benefit of holding bitcoins, it's just a
speculative bet...

For those who are only holding bitcoins for speculation, then of course it's just a speculative bet. (There's nothing wrong with speculation bets, of course.)

For those who are holding bitcoins because they want to be part of the process that will make it easier for people to trade around the world, that will reduce the overheads associated with old-school businesses such as banks and PayPal, that will help people to protect their savings against the predations of the Cyprus government, etc, then holding bitcoins is likely to provide spectacular benefits and a bit of excitement along the way.

You can either grudgingly adapt to the future when it arrives, or you can help to shape it.

My first
post is third from the bottom in page 7 (standard view)

Dude, they invented hyperlinks for a reason. For me, the third-from-the-bottom in page 7 (standard view) is something by Neilsio about cash registers.