And when that happens, there will be pain – more for some Arizonans than others.

No, it’s not fair.

But the days of thinking we can avoid the first tier of shortage declarations and spare everyone from pain are over. Even the state's two largest water voices – the Arizona Department of Water Resources and Central Arizona Project – have said as much.

Our primary goal now is to ensure that Lake Mead – which provides about 40 percent of Arizona’s water supply – doesn’t go into a death spiral, requiring far more severe cuts that would affect every person in this state.

The risk of a spiral is too high

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A boat passes silt banks towering more than 50 feet above the banks of the Colorado River near Pearce Ferry on Aug. 1, 2018. The silt in the banks, which make the end of the Grand Canyon in Lake Mead National Recreation Area, came down the Colorado River and could not pass Hoover Dam. The banks were once underwater, but now line the river with the lake at near-record-low levels. David Wallace/The Republic

Silt banks tower more than 50 feet above the banks of the Colorado River near Pearce Ferry on Aug. 1, 2018. The silt in the banks, which make the end of the Grand Canyon, in Lake Mead National Recreation Area, came down the Colorado River and could not pass Hoover Dam. The banks were once underwater but now line the river with the lake at near-record-low levels. David Wallace/The Republic

A boat passes silt banks towering more than 50 feet above the banks of the Colorado River near Pearce Ferry on Aug. 1, 2018. The silt in the banks, which make the end of the Grand Canyon in Lake Mead National Recreation Area, came down the Colorado River and could not pass Hoover Dam. The banks were once underwater, but now line the river with the lake at near-record-low levels. David Wallace/The Republic

A dead tamarisk is seen atop silt banks towering more than 50 feet above the banks of the Colorado River near Pearce Ferry on Aug, 1, 2018. The silt in the banks, which make the end of the Grand Canyon in Lake Mead National Recreation Area, came down the Colorado River and could not pass Hoover Dam. These silt banks were once underwater, but now line the river with the lake at near-record-low levels. David Wallace/The Republic

Silt banks tower more than 50 feet above the banks of the Colorado River near Pearce Ferry on Aug. 1, 2018. The silt in the banks, which make the end of the Grand Canyon, in Lake Mead National Recreation Area, came down the Colorado River and could not pass Hoover Dam. The banks were once underwater but now line the river with the lake at near-record-low levels. David Wallace/The Republic

Silt banks tower more than 50 feet above the banks of the Colorado River near Pearce Ferry on Aug. 1, 2018. The silt in the banks, which make the end of the Grand Canyon, in Lake Mead National Recreation Area, came down the Colorado River and could not pass Hoover Dam. The banks were once underwater but now line the river with the lake at near-record-low levels. David Wallace/The Republic

Dried silt is seen what was once underneath Lake Mead, near Pearce Ferry, making the end of the Grand Canyon, in Lake Mead National Recreation Area on Aug. 1, 2018. Lake levels are at or near historic lows. David Wallace/The Republic

Dried silt that was once underneath Lake Mead is seen Aug. 1, 2018, near Pearce Ferry, making the end of the Grand Canyon, in Lake Mead National Recreation Area. Lake levels are at or near historic lows. David Wallace/The Republic

Dried silt is seen that was once underneath Lake Mead is seen Aug. 1, 2018, near Pearce Ferry, making the end of the Grand Canyon, in Lake Mead National Recreation Area. Lake levels are at/near historic lows. David Wallace/The Republic

A line along a cliff illustrates where the surface of Lake Mead once stood near South Cove in the Lake Mead National Recreation Area on Aug. 1, 2018. Lake levels are at or near historic lows. David Wallace/The Republic

A line along a cliff illustrates where the surface of Lake Mead once stood near South Cove in the Lake Mead National Recreation Area on Aug. 1, 2018. Lake levels are at or near historic lows. David Wallace/The Republic

Silt banks tower more than 50 feet above the banks of the Colorado River near Pearce Ferry on Aug. 1, 2018. The silt in the banks, which make the end of the Grand Canyon, in Lake Mead National Recreation Area, came down the Colorado River and could not pass Hoover Dam. The banks were once underwater but now line the river with the lake at near-record-low levels. David Wallace/The Republic

A boat passes silt banks towering more than 50 feet above the banks of the Colorado River near Pearce Ferry on Aug. 1, 2018. The silt in the banks, which make the end of the Grand Canyon in Lake Mead National Recreation Area, came down the Colorado River and could not pass Hoover Dam. The banks were once underwater, but now line the river with the lake at near-record-low levels. David Wallace/The Republic

A boat passes silt banks towering more than 50 feet above the banks of the Colorado River near Pearce Ferry on Aug. 1, 2018. The silt in the banks, which make the end of the Grand Canyon in Lake Mead National Recreation Area, came down the Colorado River and could not pass Hoover Dam. These silt banks were once underwater but now line the river, which is at near record low levels. David Wallace/The Republic

Silt banks tower more than 50 feet above the banks of the Colorado River near Pearce Ferry on Aug. 1, 2018. The silt in the banks, which make the end of the Grand Canyon, in Lake Mead National Recreation Area, came down the Colorado River and could not pass Hoover Dam. The banks were once underwater but now line the river with the lake at near-record-low levels. David Wallace/The Republic

As the Bureau of Reclamation has warned, there is now a one-in-five chance of that happening by 2026. And no, that’s not a place where we want to be. The consequences of such drastic cuts would be dire for our economy (not to mention our taps).

That’s why Reclamation is pressing the three states that rely on Lake Mead – California, Arizona and Nevada – to cement an agreement that would leave more water in the lake. All three states, not just Arizona, would be making contributions to prop up lake levels. And that would decrease the chances of a catastrophic water-level spiral to nearly zero.

It’s the right move.

But let’s be clear: Signing this so-called drought-contingency plan (DCP) won’t avoid less-severe water shortages. In fact, for Arizona, such an agreement would deepen the impact of a Tier 1 shortage, which would be declared once the lake hits 1,075 feet of elevation.

DCP would basically wipe out the Colorado River water available to Pinal County farmers, instead of axing about half of it. It also would make a smaller cut into what’s called Non-Indian Agricultural water, more than half of which is split among two tribes and seven Valley cities.

Why all signs point to a shortage

Though Lake Mead narrowly missed a shortage declaration this year, we are bobbing just above the trigger point. The lake is projected to end 2019 at 1,070 feet – five feet below it.

And if the forecasts come to pass, we may be in line in 2020 to only get 7.48 million acre-feet of water from Lake Powell, the upstream reservoir that feeds the upper Colorado River basin states. That’s down from the 8.23 million acre-feet (or more) we’ve received from Powell in recent years.

In other words, no matter what we do in the short term, all signs point to a Tier 1 shortage.

Can’t we just conserve more water?

CLOSE

The Colorado River produces less water than Arizona and other states are entitled to use. And that is a big problem for our drinking water.

There’s a popularly held belief that if we make people rip out their pools, or if we institute watering restrictions, or if we get more farmers to use more efficient drip irrigation and convert to less water-intensive crops, we could save enough water to avoid a shortage.

And I agree: We need to do more to conserve such a precious resource. But it would take years to implement and realize significant savings from those efforts.

We don’t have years.

Remember: If the predictions are true and a Tier 1 shortage is declared in 2020, the actual declaration would come in August 2019. That’s less than a year from now.

What do we do then?

The quest now is to find some relatively quick ways to move other water supplies around – or possibly to pay farmers to fallow their land – when a shortage is declared. That’s arguably the biggest (and thorniest) issue facing those working feverishly on a plan to more equitably spread DCP’s cuts, so they don’t disproportionately hurt farmers.

These workgroups hope to finish their work by the end of the year.

No, there are no specific proposals or cost estimates to weigh in on yet. And even when there are, they will be Band-Aids. Long-term solutions – like the water conservation stuff mentioned above, or efforts to augment our water supply through desalination or recycling, or even creating something like a water market for folks to trade extra water – will take much longer.

The good news is many committee members recognize this and are pushing to continue the debate after their report has been presented to lawmakers.

Arizona also has Jon Kyl – arguably one of the state’s most knowledgeable politicians on water policy – back in the U.S. Senate. He should take an active role in this process.

Because shortages on Lake Mead are going to be part of our reality moving forward. How well we learn to weather them will shape our future, for better or worse.