federal budget Indicators

CONCORD COALITION WARNS CONGRESS AND CANDIDATES THAT ACTION IS NEEDED TO ADDRESS THE DEFICIT

September 6, 2004

WASHINGTON -- The Concord
Coalition warned policymakers and political candidates, including President Bush
and Senator Kerry, that today's new projections by the Congressional Budget
Office (CBO) confirm the need for tough policy choices to bring the budget back
into balance. Trying to have it all -
guns and butter and tax cuts - risks a
decade of large chronic deficits at a time when the Federal government needs to
improve its fiscal position before the impact of the baby boomers' retirement
and health care costs begins to hit.

“With Congress back in town and the presidential candidates
making some expensive promises on the campaign trail, these numbers are a timely
reminder that the deficit is a serious problem needing serious attention. It is
not going to go away on its own. Even assuming strong economic growth, today's
numbers show deficits persisting for as far as the eye can see. Regardless of
who wins the presidency or which party controls Congress after the elections,
they are going to have to deal with the deficit,” said Concord Coalition
Executive Director Robert Bixby.

In today's report, CBO estimates that the 2004 deficit will
be $422 billion (3.6 percent of GDP). Last year's deficit was $375 billion (3.5
percent of GDP). In dollar terms, these are the two largest deficits in our
nation's history. Measured as a share of GDP, they are the worst back-to-back
deficits since 1992-93.

“It is important to recognize that the deficit is still
going up. Despite an improvement from the March baseline, this year's deficit
will be nearly $50 billion higher than last year's deficit. Moreover, the
projected deficits beyond 2006 have worsened somewhat and the total 10-year
deficit of $2.3 trillion is the highest CBO has published since 1997. Even this
is probably optimistic because it does not assume policy changes that are
popular with members of both parties, such as the extension of expiring tax
cuts, or an adjustment to the alternative minimum tax. It also assumes a
substantial slowdown in the recent growth rate of appropriations
- from about 7 percent annually to 2.5
percent. Under more plausible political assumptions the 10-year outlook shows a
deficit of roughly $5 trillion,” Bixby said.

“These numbers do not present a hopeless scenario. They do,
however, present a serious challenge for lawmakers and candidates. All
priorities must be reexamined to ensure that the budget can be brought into
balance again and that we return to a position of fiscal strength in time to
deal with the even greater long-term challenges,” Bixby said.