I would love to see Contador win it but I think that is a hopelessly long shot. Froome most likely. But you all know I am a fan of Quintana and a scenario I can imagine (and dream for) is having Contador see a Sky weakness, go and be followed by Quintana. I can imagine Bardet also getting in on that. So, hoping Quintana doesn't lose seconds early, maybe:

QuintanaFroome (further back wouldn't upset me at all, but I am trying not to dream too much)Contador (I wish) or Bardet (more likely w/ Contador in the next two places.)

If the conditions had been dry, I'd agree that the Tour is over on Day One...but I'm gonna hold out hope that it is not over yet.

That will happen on Stage 5, as I predicted earlier.

As for Valverde, it might well be a career-ender. Knew right away that he had broken his leg....wasn't trying 'to stand, motioning towards it and the mechanic taking the bike away. Then the guy with the red jacket trying to cover the leg with his jacket.....haven't seen an official announcenemtn, but everything indicates a compound leg fracture. How hard are you gonna be willing to try and come back from that at 37?