Want to see Big Papi? Manny? You'll pay for it

The Bottom Line By Andrew S. Ross

Published 4:00 am, Friday, June 25, 2010

They may not be as hot, or expensive, as tickets for Saturday's U.S. vs. Ghana World Cup match in South Africa - running around $350 on Thursday - but, if you haven't already, you might want to nail down the price of a seat now for baseball beginning tonight at AT&T Park.

That's because the San Francisco Giants' "dynamic pricing" system is kicking into high gear in anticipation of the turnout for the Red Sox weekend series, followed immediately by the Dodgers. It's quite likely that Thursday's $57.50 price for a left field seat at the Red Sox opener may not last. The same seat for the June 15 evening game against the Orioles went for $6.

It's all about rolling supply and demand, as processed by a Texas startup's software, which the Giants first experimented with on 2,000 outfield seats last season, and now applies to all 41,500 at AT&T Park.

Starting from a base price set by the Giants, variables are factored in, like the time of year, a weekday or weekend game, who the opponent is, whether, say, Tim Lincecumis pitching, and, of course, how the Giants are doing. Prices usually change once a day, but may do so more frequently when, for example, teams like the Red Sox and Dodgers are in town.

The computer doesn't have the final word. "We get suggested prices from the software, then we'll massage them up or down, depending on our judgment," said Giants President Larry Baer. (Warning to short sellers: They never go down below the initial base price.)

Putting the squeeze on? To some fans it's "downright evil." "I sincerely hope that this is a dismal failure, and those responsible for it are disgraced into finding nonbaseball avenues of squeezing every last dollar out of rubes," wrote an SF Weeklyblogger in February.

So far that appears to be a wish unfulfilled. Last season's pilot program brought $500,000 in added revenue. This year, according to Baer, "we're looking at an upside of 5 to 7 percent" over anticipated ticket revenue of $100 million. Ticket sales so far this season are up 12 percent, Baer said. And while other factors may have been in play, dynamic pricing seems not to have hurt. "No way could we have gotten the numbers for the Orioles series" (approximately 35,000 per game) "without it," he said.

To the rip-off argument, Baer responds that 75 percent of this season's games will be priced the same as last year or lower. The rest - Opening Day, Red Sox, Dodgers - are likely to be higher. "But they're still better than prices you'll get on the secondary market," he said, meaning resellers like ClickitTicket and StubHub.

Wave of the future: Like it or not, sports fans everywhere, get ready. "Everyone's watching what the Giants are doing," Joris Drayer, a professor of sports management at the University of Memphis, told my colleague Benny Evangelista, who wrote a story on the brave new world of ticket pricing last month ( www.sfgate.com/ZJWQ). "They're the guinea pigs not only for baseball, but for all sports." And rock concerts, as evidenced by Live Nation Entertainment's "dynamic ticketing" of an Eagles show in Sacramento in April.

"This is the wave of the future," Baer said.

-- Tips: Buy early, rather than later, Baer suggests. The price difference can be substantial. The safest path, for a nongambling but committed fan, is a season ticket. No one will be sitting in your section at a lower price, Baer guarantees.

For a compare and contrast, and the latest ticket prices for the Giants weekend and beyond, go to links.sfgate.com/ZJWR.

Senators might ask Tyson, one of President Obama's outside economic advisers, if she still believes in the need for a second stimulus package, as she stated a year ago. They also might bring up a more recent opinion that "it would be premature to begin slashing the deficit now."

"A robust, self-sustaining recovery is far from a sure thing and cutting the deficit by curbing spending or boosting taxes too soon might tip the economy back into recession," she wrote in a Bloomberg column in January. "Lawmakers should continue to provide significant fiscal support as long as the economy is operating far below its potential and private spending is constrained." What's more, "additional fiscal stimulus to encourage job creation in 2010 is advisable."

Red alerts: Flying in the face of seemingly overpowering political headwinds, Tyson's views are similar to those of economists such as Joseph Stiglitz, Paul Krugman, and Tyson's UC Berkeley colleague Robert Reich, who warn of a double-dip recession. In addition to a general sense of unease (or is it just me?) about the "robustness" of the "recovery," an increasing number of indicators - unemployment, consumption, housing starts - seem to be flashing red.

I ran into Tyson at an Asian banking conference in San Francisco this month. I had asked Morgan Stanley Asia's chairman, Stephen Roach, with whom she was chatting outside the conference room, whether he still believed as he had written last year that the United States was looking at a Japanese-style "lost decade." Yes, he replied.

"So is the West," Tyson chimed in. "Two or three decades, maybe," said Roach. Tyson nodded.

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