Saturday, March 19, 2016

The latest poll in Survation's monthly series for Cleggy and the Vow-Meisters is now out, and it shows Labour slumping to joint all-time lows for Survation polls in both the constituency and list ballots.

The Record bills this poll as predicting that Labour will finish third in terms of seats behind the Tories, but that isn't strictly true - even leaving aside the fact that polls don't make predictions, all that the poll itself says is that the Conservatives have drawn level with Labour on the list vote. Pumping the figures into one particular prediction website may give the Tories one more seat than Labour, but it's debatable whether any prediction model can say anything meaningful about what would happen in the event of a dead heat. The outcome would mostly depend on the regional distribution of each party's list votes.

There are also two important facts we know to be true - a) the list vote for major parties is generally very strongly correlated to their constituency vote, and b) polling for the constituency ballot tends to be more accurate than polling for the list ballot. So it could well be that Labour's 4% advantage over the Tories on the constituency ballot tells us more about what is likely to happen on the list than the list figures themselves do.

Predictably, the Greens' spin machine has cranked into gear over their showing on the list, but actually this poll isn't as great for them as it appears. Survation have consistently been the most favourable pollster for both the Greens and UKIP, and that appears to be due to the inadvisable way in which respondents are asked for their list voting intention. 10% is well within the Greens' recent 'normal range' with Survation - they were as high as 11% in September.

Explanatory note : As a fond tribute to the mainstream media's restrained take on the GERS report, Scot Goes Pop headlines will contain 50% added hysteria for an indefinite period.

All about Europe, gents. IDS being concerned about Welfare cuts is like Satan being concerned about swearing.

The matters that drive people in Scotland to vote conservative are quite distant from IDS' political stunting: defence of the union and the fight for left-right political pluralism. I suspect the effect on the Scottish Tories' performance will be negligible.

One of the exciting things about Scottish politics is that we have been breaking the mould for the past few years.

As the electorate make more politically aware decisions, we are seeing labour suffer the most.

Although the link between first choice votes and second votes may have had a lot of merit in the past, I feel that perhaps we are seeing another thing happening:

Can it be that a lot of Scots would vote for their favoured Party first, but would use their second vote to ensure some kind of balance in the parliament (as was designed to happen)But what people are doing is looking at labour (the natural second vote for all party supporters as they are the party most likely to be in opposition) and realising that they are useless, even in opposition.

So these voters have decided to go to the party they think will offer some opposition to the SNP, and that party is the Tories.

It sticks in the craw to see the Tories getting more seats in Scotland, but Labour has become so dire under Kezia, that apart from the 'low information voters' who still believe Labour are socialists, people feel a vote for Labour is a wasted vote.

I honestly see the list numbers for labour dropping even further as people begin to think about how they will use their second vote.

If the tories "win" second place the constitutional question of Scotland's independence will become even more prominent. It will be a clear fight between pro-indy parties and anti-indy parties until the day when Scotland regains its independence.

As much as it tickles one pink (and it does) to see the Red Tories decimated, annihilated, vaporised out of existence, the truth is that at the moment the Red Tories are still in second place - it makes fun reading for us but a grim tome for the Dug - still, she can claim a victory of sorts if the Red Tories manage to stay in second place in Scotland and won't lose her position as chief BritNat griper to the griping BritNay gripers of Holyrood. Is this what the Rectum poll had in mind all along? One thinks it is their srategy - on election day they'll ignore the SNP victory and revel in the glory of the failure of the Red Tories to completely disappear off the face of the Earth and instead successfully remain as Scotland's second party biting snappishly at the heels (toe nail clipings actually) of the SNP.

What would happen if Kezia and Ruth ended up with the same number of seats in May? Who would be the official leader of the opposition? Who would get to annoy he FM first at question time? Perhaps they would take turns every week. :)

The other nominated choice was Ken MacIntosh. Who represents Eastwood, making him the Holyrood double for what was then Murphy's seat. The two are close friends.

They'd already scraped the barrel for the contest after Johann Lamont resigned... and after Murphy resigned, the candidate pool had been drastically reduced.

As WoS shows here: http://wingsoverscotland.com/meet-the-new-blood/

The next SLab MSP group is going to contain maybe three new faces at most. The odds are enormous we'll see a former leader or deputy leader take charge, unless Jenny Marra is ready to give it a go. Probably Anas Sarwar - I saw that coming as soon as I heard he had first place on the Glasgow list.

However, that's a poisoned chalice, being based in Glasgow with the Labour council there likely to be run out of town next year. At least in the North East, Marra doesn't have as many council seats to lose.

The problem for Marra is, she would be stuck herding a bunch of politically geriatic grandees still living in the late nineties. Her best move would be forcing the resignations of the old guard until the other new faces can be slipped in and then /maybe/ they have a chance of salvaging something by 2021.

Apparently there was no love lost between Anas and Johann when he was her deputy. He viewed her as incompetent and she viewed him as insincere and unprincipled. I'd say her judgement in matters of leadership has been shown to be better than his, since he went on to vote for Murphy while she ranked him last.

Unionists and those unimpressed by Scotland's hard left (by the standards of most of the democratic world) consensus would appear to be swinging behind the conservatives - in no small part due to the talent and character of their leader.

I will be one of those people voting tory x 2. I considered a Labour tactical vote right up to the point when they backed unilateralism. That was it for me after that.

If the tories do come second, it will become an automatic repudiation to those who claim that Scotland is anti-tory - a claim that loses its edge in a country where the tories are now the official opposition. I shall look forward to that!

I'm saying that the issues in Scotland are somewhat removed from whatever EU and career related shenanigans IDS is getting up to.

Having 'someone else's tories' is a non issue for unionists who perceive the UK as one nation of which they are happy to be a citizen. Do Texans complain about someone else's democrats? Do inhabitants of the Northern Isles complain about someone else's SNPers?

I've said it before, but I think we are starting to see the 'Ulsterisation' of Scottish politics, where your stance on independence comes first, and political left/right comes second.Unionists see the Tories as the party of the Union.

The poll to which I refer covered 3.6 million people, in an actual vote, with actual, legally binding consequences :0)

The trust figures are pretty meaningless in the context of independence vs union. Once again, 55% of the population chose the UK over independence. They trust the UK state - if not necessarily its government - over a hypothetical Scottish state.

The DUP and UUP are not London based. They don't run in the rest of the UK. But they oppose Irish Republicanism and have do so successfully to date. In Scotland, there are early signs that the Scottish Tories might be starting to assume that role here. Time will tell. But there is now a definite political vacuum for an unashamedly unionist party.

The Scottish iref was years ago Aldo. You need to move on. A week is a long time in politics.

Out of interest, in N. Ireland are 7 in 10 either pro-reunification or not against it in principle but want more convincing?*

Anyway, back to the present. Why are Labour now ahead of the Tories UK-wide? George's approval is collapsing. I'm pleased to see that, but any ideas what's causing it? Is it 'Ulsterisation' of rUK politics over the EU?

A year and a half Skier (not years plural) and all indications are that if repeated tomorrow the same outcome would be delivered.

The one referendum on NI status saw a staggeringly high pro UK vote. There has not been one since - and any repeat would require cross community endorsement so it's pretty much constitutionally impossible.

Labour were ahead for about 90% of the last parliament - at times miles ahead - and still got gubbed. There is precisely zero chance of a Steptoe premiership.

It's more than 1.5 years Aldo. So 'years' is correct. Polls suggest it would be closer. It could be reversed. Who knows; polls surged for Yes last time in the last few weeks, and if that happened again...

Years isn't correct. It has to be at least 2. You've got six months to wait although it will still be a helluva short 'generation'.

The vast majority of polls put NO ahead, with Yes on 40% in the last one. Assuming undecideds break mostly for the status quo, you would have a repeat of 2014. And why would it be any different anyway? Nothing of substance has changed except the SNP economic case being decimated by the Scottish Government's own figures.

Very difficult for NI to leave the union. You'd need a majority of the Protestant politicians to approve. Good luck with that one.

Scotland may reconsider its position if the UK government can maintain free trade with the EU. What's not to like about such a deal if it happens? All the good stuff, none of the bad - and powers over agriculture, fishing etc returned to Scotland for the first time in 3 centuries. I think, in that "best of both worlds" situation, the nats would have a very hard job breaking up the UK and taking Scotland into an EU where it would be obliged to take on the euro, higher taxes and free movement of people - as well as Brussels-led austerity.

I am confused. If you think the uncaring European bureucacy is oppressing you now, wait til you are on the other side! Europe is not known for giving good deals to those near it. Think that's why we all ...india, South africa, australia, etc, got away. They will screw you in the details. Either you are in or you are out. The idea that england will cede control of europe to Germany and France seems astounding...

In Northern Ireland, as a condition of the Good Friday Agreement (you know - the wee piece of paper that has stopped people getting bombed and shot these last two decades), there is something called cross community voting. In order for an independence or united Ireland referendum to even be called, a majority of both Catholic AND Protestant representatives in Stormont have to vote in favour of it. So there will be no NI secession, unless the peace treaty is torn up.

If pointing out facts makes me a "sad fascist turd" then so be it. I'd rather be that anyway as opposed to an hysterical lefty.

Skier, my life isn't so sad that I'm perturbed by the resignation of a cabinet minister. You seem to be positively excited over it however. How times have changed from 2 years ago when you were going to establish a new socialist republic of Scotland. Now you come to life when a balding 2nd rate politician hands in his resignation. How unfortunate.

You get crap and mediocre people in all walks of life, in all professions. Except the SNP of course - perched on Mount Olympus as they are.

The Yes Scotland campaign was full of some of the most left wing drivel I have ever seen. It's no secret that the pro separation campaign is hard left and anti-monarchy. In the end, it's not really about self dedetermination for Scotland - it's about Scotland becoming a political laboratory for policies and ideas that either failed or were rejected elsewhere. That's what it's really about.

It's not clear that the fact that IDS is "balding" will make his resignation less of a problem for the government. Or that "anti-monarchism" has "failed" everywhere it's been tried. But whatever helps your narrative that no events are ever bad news for the Unionist cause.

Skier young fellow that remembers Major. If we Brits vote to get out of this corrupt EU mafia the Yellow Nat si Tories will not go for another referendum.The Yellow Tories know where their bread is buttered and hanging around hoping they will get a meal ticket from Merkel is not on. The Nat sis will beg to stay with the Union and the GBP.

I read his letter and he has been vindicated. His aim has always been to get people who can work get into work. As for cruelty then we can wait and see if the Yellow Tartan Tories will raise tax to eliminate food banks.However the Tories will cave in on this disability issue and carry on. The Yellow Tartan Tories worse nightmare is a Labour Government because we know you are scumbag Tory impersonators.

God save Brenda, mate, god save brenda. Cue "Land of dope and baloney" Exit stage left to cheers of "Hoorah" and "Howzat"Meanwhile in La La La Land kids are starving, people attend foodbanks, folk are losing their jobs, the Disabled have become the rallying point for the last vestiges of humanity left in the UK and HS2 will stop at a motorway service station just outside Leicester.

Jenny Marra is a bit light weight,like Dugdale,to be leading a political party.

Ulsterification? That seems unlikely when so many people are open minded about the constitutional issue.

Is Ruth Davidson that popular among Scottish Tories? I remember her leadership campaign being quite bitter.I know some Tories who think she's a bit too shouty and not enough like Annabel.And just how many people in 2016 Scotland are prepared to vote for a party led by an old Etonian Bullingdon boy?

If Gwc thinks indi supporters are Nazis. Does this include Andy Murray,Professor Devine,Tommy Sheridan,Elaine C Smith,Annie Lennox, Patrick Harvie,Hamza Yusef..Interesting collection of Nazis. Meanwhile he sings about a corrupt Royal Family with Germanic roots who care not a jot for their loyal subjects.

You don't really get it Skier. We're talking about the moment where identity politics becomes more important than traditional left/right issues. That has happened in Northern Ireland. We are certainly part of the way to it in Scotland. However, at UK level, peoples' politics are not yet defined by their stance on the EU. Might this happen? Possibly. But there is no evidence for it as yet.

Lab and Lib are firm 'In'. UKIP firm 'out'. It's the Tories split down the middle and I predict that's what will happen to them. Two Tory parties, one pro and one anti-EU.

There's too much passion on either side for that not to happen.

If the result is a whopping victory for either side in June, then it won't most likely. But if it's less than 60% for either side, we'll see ulsterisation, with the Tory vote split badly.

Look at what happened to Labour in Scotland. They got 42% in 2010 and 24% in 2015. Vote split in half!

I debate with folks in England all the time. The passion for independence in many Tories is really strong. They increasingly hate Cameron and the 'In' lot with a vengeance. That's why they're rating Osborne as crap as chancellor in polls etc.

You make the mistake of judging the entire United Kingdom by Scotland's standard of politics i.e. if you lose, feck it, get behind the one party and use it as a battering ram until you win anyway. I think English people quite frankly are calmer, more mature and better educated than that. They can see more than two inches in front of their faces. This makes them less susceptible to emotionally driven politics. The mere fact the tory party is popular in the first place ought to tell you something about the English mindset.

Also, this is a short campaign over a relatively boring issue - making a long lasting polarisation even less likely.

You aren't talking to the average English person then. I don't just post in Scottish forums. I want to know what people in the SE of England think and why they're voting UKIP etc (as these things do affect Scotland). So I go online and politely discuss this with them in appropriate forums.

In fact I spend far more time talking politics with people in England than I do with people in Scotland. I know Scotland well, I know England a lot less, so this makes sense in terms of learning.

I have been watching an old episode of "Allo Allo" this afternoon and can't help but think that the German occupiers are just like the SNP - lots of them about, seemingly all powerful, but very very stupid (and doomed to defeat).

Think you've got things mixed up a bit Aldo old boy. Surely the German occupiers bear a striking resemblance to the Tory party at the moment.lots of them about,seemingly all-powerful but very stupid and doomed to defeat.

The conservative working majority is about 16 or 17. They have DUP/UUP support + possible lib dem support should it become necessary. They will see out their 5 year term and by the time May 2020 comes along I suspect all this will be a distant memory. Sorry to be a party pooper!

At least the Labour Party and the Conservatives have MP's who will , rightly or wrongly, vote with their conscience even if means they sometimes vote against their own party. So far I haven't seen any sign of the SNP MP's do anything other than what to vote for by their leaders.

I made no mention of MSP's, you did. Anyway if you feel that two MSP's rebelling during a five year parliament an event good luck to you. It won't bring your one party SNP state into being.The SNP try to frighten us Unionists by saying they want control of all Scotland's councils at the 2017 local elections. Whst a depressing thought

Brit Nat Labour Party and Brit Nat Tory Party MPs have a conscience? Aye Right! Behave yersel! Never ever equate publicity hunting and attention seeking and political manoeuvring with having a conscience man.