Funding and planning are the two biggest factors affecting property development and, of these, funding is probably the most critical. Yet that in turn depends on the national and global economies.

And the national economy has been through a period of uncertainty unprecedented in recent times. “The biggest barrier to growth continues to be the economy and there are some concerns ahead with Scotland generally lagging behind England,” says Gavin Maclean, partner at law firm Davidson Chalmers.

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“If this current sluggish performance continues here it will undoubtedly impact on investment in new developments. Brexit also creates uncertainty for the property market. This is, of course, uncharted territory.

“But the EU withdrawal negotiations combined with the prospect of another independence referendum – albeit now a longer-term prospect – continues to deter so many of the investors I have dealings with, particularly those based in London who are looking for greater certainty.

Foreign investors appear less concerned about these factors, however, and are more attracted by currency plays.”

Worryingly this has not been a short-term situation and it seems set to continue longer. “For the past few years, funding for speculative schemes has been a significant obstacle to development,” says John Rae, capital markets partner at Knight Frank. “It’s partly a hangover from 2008 but uncertainty in the market has also had an impact.

“There’s limited appetite for this kind of risk, despite strong occupational markets in both central belt cities. The usual development cycle suggests that we should be entering the next phase of new schemes. Recent examples have shown how successful they can be – 1 West Regent Street, 110 Queen Street, and St Vincent Plaza among them.

“But there’s little sign of those who previously funded speculative projects getting involved again. Overseas investors have become the most active buyers in the Scottish commercial property market in the last 18 months or so, but they typically favour buildings that are already let and provide secure, long-term income.”

For Eric Curran, managing partner at DM Hall in Glasgow, “uncertainty is the dragging sea anchor that disincentivises productive and forward-looking economic activity. People cannot plan and there is an understandable temptation to batten down the hatches until the coast is clearer.”

David Stewart, partner at Morton Fraser commercial real estate (CRE), believes the receding prospect of a second independence referendum “is likely to result in some investors, who had previously ruled out investing here, looking once again at Scotland and the yield gap that it offers versus the rest of the UK.

“Scotland could therefore fare more positively in relation to investment decisions over the next six to 12 months. In this context ‘investors’ refers to both occupiers and investment buyers – both of who have a knock-on effect on the demand that drives developer decisions and appetite for risk.”

This gains some support from analysis by Knight Frank showing investment in Scotland’s commercial property market remained fairly resilient in the first half of 2017 with spending of £804m, down 11.8 per cent on H1 of 2016 but healthy given the political uncertainty.

Edinburgh saw the highest levels of activity, with £326m spent on commercial property, against £401.2m last year, headed by the sales of Exchange Place 1, 2 and 3 for a reported £83m and Silvan House in Corstorphine for £18m.

Another is 1 West Regent Street in Glasgow

Glasgow was broadly in line with 2016, with £182.05m spent in the first half of this year against £189.5m last year. Among the biggest deals was Credit Suisse’s £28m purchase of Cuprum in Glasgow’s International Financial Services District.

Trading volumes in Aberdeen continued to recover from the sustained low oil price with £80m invested in commercial property against £49.5m in H1 of 2016. Most of this was down to LCN Capital Partners’ purchase of Prime Four Business Park for £43.2m.

“Despite the overall figure dropping, the first half of 2017 has seen a steady level of investment,” says Alasdair Steele, head of Scotland Commercial at Knight Frank. “Edinburgh, in particular, had a strong first half in 2016, so it is encouraging that transactional levels this year are broadly keeping pace. There are a number of deals on the verge of going through in the capital which make us confident of a strong second half to the year.”

Savills annual Financing Property presentation in the summer reported that UK property is attractive and financeable, while the outlook for Scotland is improving. More than 80 per cent of lenders wanted to increase their loan book this year. “The strong desire to lend is generating increased competition in the market,” says Craig Timney, head of valuation at Savills Scotland.

He added: “The political uncertainty surrounding Scotland and in particular the prospect of a further independence referendum has resulted in a contraction in the volume of investors looking to buy in Scotland. Similarly, whilst many lenders are seeking to diversify by lending on assets within the UK’s regional cities, Scotland has, of late, been considered a bridge too far.

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“However, with the political landscape now very different and the threat of a second independence referendum receding, we hope investors and lenders will be encouraged back to Scotland.”

Steve Dougherty, head of real estate at Shoosmiths in Edinburgh, concludes: “Developments in Scotland are hindered by a range of factors. Despite the drive for independence receding in the short-term it is far from finished, leaving Scotland facing political uncertainty and doing little to encourage non-Scottish investors to fund developments.”