Thailand at the Brink

Political tensions that have long simmered in Thailand have exploded into violence in recent days. Clashes and gunfights between antigovernment protesters and security forces led to several deaths and many more injuries over the weekend. But the country’s elected leaders and the protesters are digging in their heels even as the conflict tears their country apart. The leader of Thailand’s army recently warned that continued violence could lead to a “collapse” of the country.

Since November, the protesters have been trying to oust Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra and her government. In response, she and her allies called for an election earlier this month. But voting was disrupted in many parts of the country, preventing a new government from being formed. The election commission has not said when it will complete the election. Both sides have been unwilling to compromise, and their supporters appear to be girding for more violence by forming militias and armed gangs in Bangkok and elsewhere in the country.

The current crisis is the result of years of increasing regional and class divisions that have been exploited by leaders of all Thai political parties. Ms. Shinawatra and her brother Thaksin Shinawatra, the former prime minister, represent the north and northeast of the country, which has historically been more rural and poorer than the rest of Thailand. The antigovernment protesters, led by a combative opposition politician, tend to be from the south and from Bangkok, which is home to the country’s economic and cultural elite. Among other issues, the urbanites say Ms. Shinawatra has given overly generous subsidies to rice farmers that the country cannot afford.

Resolving the current standoff will not be easy. The protesters want to replace the country’s democracy temporarily with an appointed council to enact unspecified political reforms. They argue that voters from the north and northeast cannot be trusted to elect an honest and competent government because they are easily influenced by populist policies. And supporters of Ms. Shinawatra argue that the Bangkok elite are trying to suppress the rural majority’s political voice and deny those people a fair share of the country’s wealth by preventing them from voting.

The country’s two powerful institutions, the military and the royal family, which have previously stepped in to resolve political disputes, do not seem willing or able to intervene this time. The military, which has taken power in a coup or attempted to nearly 20 times since 1932, has said it will not take sides and has called on protesters and political leaders to respect the country’s Constitution. King Bhumibol Adulyadej, who is 86 and ailing, has not publicly spoken about the crisis.

One potential solution to the current crisis would be for the national government to delegate more power and taxing authority to provincial administrations. That would allow different regions greater control over matters like agricultural and social welfare policies, which have been a major source of tension between the north and Bangkok. But no proposal can make headway until both sides renounce violence and agree to talk to each other.