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Re: What is Putin's motivation?

Originally Posted by ataraxia

You know, I happened to be visiting Moscow in the summer of 2007. That was when Medvedev was in power. I remember laying on my hotel bed in Moscow and listening to English language RT TV. They were interviewing Medvedev. The interviewer was asking him about the prospects of Russia joining the EU, and Medvedev was very seriously entertaining the possibility of it, going through the pros and cons of such a potential merger. What really then blew my mind was that the interviewer even asked him about the possibility of Russia joining NATO! Medvedev laughed at the idea a bit initially, but then went on to talk about that as a possibility in the future as well. He spent a long time talking about the pros and cons of such a move. I couldn't believe my ears that this was even being seriously discussed.

That was 2007. Man, Russia has come a long way since then. Obama was defending their "Russian reset" in his debates, open to helping them in the community of civilized nations. Does Putin think that Russia is in a position of greater power now, being an international pariah, hated and distrusted by almost the entire rest of the world, on economic sanctions with an economy that's literally on life support? Is this his idea of how to make Russia great again?

I think I miss Medvedev. I really do think Russia would have been better off right now if it had been less aggressive this last decade.

Actually, I believe it was informally floated with the Russians that they might join NATO and the first steps in that direction were taken somewhere around 2004 or 5. The Germans worked on getting Russia to think about joining the Eu. The main motor was the SPD. But the Russians weren't interested.

Of course, these things are never clear cut and in organizations like the Eu or NATO are full of diverging interests and conflicting opinions.

Re: What is Putin's motivation?

Originally Posted by Abbazorkzog

Seems like a mixture of desperation and paranoia. He, Trump and Netanyahu are all quite unhinged.

And don't forget Erdogan in Turkey. He too wants to make Turkey "great again"- as in the seat of the caliphate and Muslim world. And Kim Jung Un wants to make N. Korea "great again". And The Ayatollah Khamenei wants to reassert Iranian cultural and geopolitical hegemony in the middle east. And the Palestinians go and elect Hamas. And Farage in England and LePen in France are interested in making their countries great again too.

It seems the world is once again regressing to an era of narcissistic strongmen that characterized the first half of the 20th century: a dangerous and dysfunctional powderkeg of testosterone and explosives. As they said of Saddam Hussein's family " It's like the Simpsons, except with guns". The world has become like a bad episode of the Simpsons, except with nukes now.

Re: What is Putin's motivation?

Originally Posted by ataraxia

It is now clear that the election hacking of the DNC, the deliberate spread of "fake news", and other cyber-attacks from Russia have come from the highest reaches of the Russian government- very likely Putin himself. This has been confirmed by the CIA, and now the FBI, and supported by 99 out of 100 US senators.

At least this is what they claim. As for the truth, we will never know it, as always.

Originally Posted by ataraxia

You know, I happened to be visiting Moscow in the summer of 2007. (...) That was 2007. Man, Russia has come a long way since then. (...) Does Putin think that Russia is in a position of greater power now, being an international pariah, hated and distrusted by almost the entire rest of the world, on economic sanctions with an economy that's literally on life support? Is this his idea of how to make Russia great again?

First of all Putin and Medvedev have always been the two sides of the same coin.

I do not think there really has been a policy change on Russian side, I think Putin also wanted to forma common entity with Europeans to avoid being stuck between China and the EU.

But the EU and the USA seem to have rejected those perspectives. They closed trade unification's perspectives, they attempted to assimilate the buffer with Russia, and they did set up missiles for a first-strike configuration all around this country. Russia was clearly going to be left behind, at the mercy of China and the EU and NATO, reduced to nothing. What should Russia have done? Submit and shut up, and get lost in history?

As for whether Russia is better right now, certainly not. But when you look at the long term, Russia seems to be winning:

* The ME was dominated by the USA not so long ago while Russia is now allied with Iraq, Iran, Turkey and Syria. Together they probably have a quarter or a third of world oil production.

* They managed to prevent the assimilation of Ukraine and the installation of some missile bases.

* They may have installed an obedient dog at in Washington, who may do nothing if Russia decides tomorrow to invade and subjugate the Baltic states.

* They ended the Syrian conflict that Europe was failing to tackle. This is not a desirable outcome because it remains unstable, but it will end the refugees problem that Putin fueled, and Europeans will be grateful to Putin for this. They appear as the ones who achieved a peace that the West failed to achieve for years.

* They played on our divisions, exposed that the West was supporting neo-Nazis in an ethnic conflict against Russian speakers, exposed that we were funding Al Qaeda to fight El-Assad, divided Europe about refugees and forced us into a pathetic treaty with Turkey to avoid even more refugees.

Meanwhile, what did Bush, Obama, Merkel and Hollande achieve? The ME is more unstable than ever, terrorism is at its peak, Europe is more impotent and divided than ever, Iran is now a few weeks away of having nuclear weapons while this country is crumbling as tribes take the power back.

Putin outsmarted us. The job was not so hard though: there are so many inconsistencies and fragilities with our current political and strategic positions... We are easy preys, especially the weak Europe. Putin, China, Muslims, they are all toying with us.

Re: What is Putin's motivation?

Originally Posted by ataraxia

It seems the world is once again regressing to an era of narcissistic strongmen that characterized the first half of the 20th century: a dangerous and dysfunctional powderkeg of testosterone and explosives.

It can't be helped: a weak power is great as long as everything works, since it protects this desirable state. But when the weak and smart power repeatedly fails to fix anything, it's time for the bold answers.

Take Europe: the Schengen area and eurozone have been failing since their introduction. Yet the smart guys only offer more desperate fixes to save something flawed from the start, hoping that it will eventually work.

Sometimes it takes a dumb crowd to bring experts back to their senses, because we experts tend to get lost in our savant and patiently elaborated models of reality, but eventually become unable to realize that the model no longer has anything in common with reality.

Re: What is Putin's motivation?

Originally Posted by Auvergnat

It can't be helped: a weak power is great as long as everything works, since it protects this desirable state. But when the weak and smart power repeatedly fails to fix anything, it's time for the bold answers.

Take Europe: the Schengen area and eurozone have been failing since their introduction. Yet the smart guys only offer more desperate fixes to save something flawed from the start, hoping that it will eventually work.

Sometimes it takes a dumb crowd to bring experts back to their senses, because we experts tend to get lost in our savant and patiently elaborated models of reality, but eventually become unable to realize that the model no longer has anything in common with reality.

There is not a doubt in my mind, right now, Western civilization is going to talk itself to death.

Re: What is Putin's motivation?

Originally Posted by ataraxia

I think there cybersecurity people have a way of tracking down the signature trademarks of particular hackers- individuals, or from a particular organization/nation.

Some skepticism is good, and I applaud you for it. But keep in mind there is a very thin line between that and an unhealthy level of suspicion, mistrust, and paranoia. I couldn't tell you if you are crossing it or not. Only time will tell, I guess.