Survey finds Alabamians open to some tax increases and that's an opportunity for Gov. Bentley: Opinion

A new survey shows support for some tax increases if they prevent cuts to some key state services

I've noted that some Tea Party groups and some bloggers are beginning their predictable protestations to Gov. Robert Bentley's warnings that a pending budget deficit will require some tax increases to fix.

You can expect that opposition to grow louder, of course. And you can probably expect it to become filled with vitriol by some who will undoubtedly feel betrayed by a Republican governor who has been until recently an opponent of tax increases.

Bentley has explained that stark budget numbers have forced him to conclude that the $700 million shortfall in the state's General Fund budget cannot be fixed by cuts alone and that there is simply "not enough money" to meet state needs.

Bentley will have to work hard to sell that conclusion to Republican legislators for certain and to voters almost certainly.

I say "almost" because new polling data suggest that maybe Alabamians are more open to tax increases than one might expect in a deep red state. I said maybe.

According to a survey for the Public Affairs Research Council of Alabama (that's a good government think tank); a majority of Alabamians say they are willing to pay higher state taxes to prevent cuts to education, healthcare and public safety.

The telephone survey of 592 Alabamians between Jan. 5 - 21 has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent.

When specifically asked about education cuts, just over 63 percent said they would be willing to pay more to prevent them. About 37 percent said they were not. About 6 percent had no opinion.

To prevent cuts to healthcare the state provides, just over 56 percent said they would be willing to pay more compared to almost 37 percent who said they would not. Just over 6 percent had no opinion.

On cuts to public safety, just over 51 percent said they would pay more to prevent them, almost 43 percent said they would not and 6 percent were undecided.

The survey found a majority -- almost 52 percent -- opposed tax increases to prevent cuts to highway maintenance and building needs.

On a related budget issue - a big one - almost 53 percent of respondents said they think Alabama should accept federal funds to expand healthcare coverage under Medicaid. Those dollars would come from the Affordable Care Act, or Obamacare, which Republican leaders in the state lead by Bentley have strongly opposed and have to date refused to take part in.

However, the governor has said he is willing to look at expanding Medicaid in some form of block grant system; a move that still generates opposition in the GOP dominated Legislature.

What does all this mean?

Maybe that Bentley has an opportunity on the question of tax increases in some areas. The survey shows the Alabamians do not have a closed mind to the possibility of tax increases if they are used to prevent cuts to things they value.

The PARCA poll, conducted by Samford University Professor Randolph Horn, is a work of polling science. Therefore its results can be applied as a real snapshot of the opinions of Alabamians.

I recently put up on Al.com a very unscientific poll asking readers if they would be willing to consider tax increases to help address the looming budget crisis. To date just over 2,300 readers have voted in the poll and just a quarter of them said they are absolutely opposed to any tax increases.

But almost 29 percent said the state has too long underfunded its needs and they would support tax hikes. Just over 24 percent said they were willing to consider tax hikes but needed to know more... what taxes, how much more, for example. And finally, just over 21 percent said they would favor tax hikes on alcohol and tobacco.<

Again, my poll is not scientific. It's just 2,300 readers who decided to take it. But I do think that between the PARCA survey and what my readers had to say there is maybe an opportunity for the governor to make a case that some taxes will need to go up if Alabama is to have enough money to do things like provide adequate schools, more troopers on the highways and better healthcare for its old and poor.

Tax increases are always a tough sell, anywhere. But in Alabama they are usually the third rail of politics, meaning touch them and you die.

At least that's what history tells us. But Bentley is telling us that it's a new day in Alabama. These polls and surveys maybe offer some evidence that Alabamians might be willing to consider a cogent argument as to why they need to pay a little more.

That argument will have to be made by a governor who just won re-election with 64 percent of the vote. The question is: If almost six and a half voters of every 10 liked Bentley enough to vote for him, how many will eventually back him as he makes his case for higher taxes?