But with the ANC leader Jacob Zuma growing more powerful, South Africa's approach to its northern neighbour may now become more assertive, he added.

"Jacob Zuma, because of his background in the liberation struggle as a member of the ANC's armed wing would not feel the need to prove his pan-African credentials," he said. "He is more likely to stand up to Mugabe."

Mr Zuma has in the past openly criticised Mr Mugabe's mismanagement, and his left-wing allies in the trade unions instinctively support the MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai, a former labour activist.

"If I was his spin doctor I would be looking for a very sexy issue to present him as tough on abuse of power and dictatorship in Africa that would mollify critics saying South Africa is going down the same path," said Mr Maroleng. "It would be an easy foreign policy score for him."