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Overview: There is an eerie calm in the capital markets today as the G20 meeting gets underway. There is much uncertainty, and the event calendar is chock full next week, with the Brexit debate getting underway in the UK Parliament, the CDU picks a new leader to replace Merkel, possible partial US government closure, Powell's testimony befor…

The softer than expected PCE deflator today plays into the dovish market mood. There may be little that can resist it until next Friday's employment data, which should be another robust report with hourly earnings holding above 3% year-over-year. Last November, average hourly earnings rose by 0.3%. As this drops out of the year-over-year c…

Great Graphic: Weekly Jobless Claims and the S&P 500
Reviewed by Marc Chandler
on
November 29, 2018
Rating: 5

Overview: The biggest US equity advance since Q1 has helped lift global markets today. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose for the fourth session, and nearly all the bourses in the region rallied with the notable exception of China and Hong Kong. Almost all the sectors in Europe are rallying but energy and real estate. US oil inventories rose thre…

I was on Fox Business today. Stuart Varney introduced me by asking me about my forecast for a Santa Claus rally--a year-end recovery in equities. From a technical perspective, I liked the fact that the S&P 500 successfully retested last month's lows last week. I liked that last Friday's price action was a bullish island bottom, with…

Overview: Global capital markets are relatively calm as investors gird for drama. The Bank of England reports its assessment of the impact of Brexit and the stress tests a little before Fed Chair Powell speaks at midday in NY. The G20 meeting begins Friday, and several bilateral meetings are taking the spotlight from the larger gathering. Asia…

Overview: The global capital markets have taken the US latest tariff threats in stride. Most of the Asian equity markets advanced, including Japan, Korea, Taiwan, India, and Australia. China and Hong Kong were exceptions with marginal losses. European markets are trying to extend their recovery for a third session, but the industry performance…

There are three key scheduled events between now and the end of the year. In chronological order, this weekend G20 meeting is first. It will shape expectations for trade tensions between the US and China, with extensive secondary impact. Saudi Arabia and Russia's meeting may help shape expectations for the price of oil, which has collapsed h…

Overview: Global equities paid no mind to the losses seen in the US before the weekend. After falling for three weeks, Asian equities rallied, led by a recovery in technology. The Hang Seng set the pace with a 1.7% gain, but Taiwan, Korea, and Singapore markets were up over 1%. The two exceptions were Chinese mainland markets and Australia, wh…

Greenback is Softer but the Market may be Getting Ahead of Itself
Reviewed by Marc Chandler
on
November 26, 2018
Rating: 5

The investment climate will be shaped by three events next week. ECB President Draghi's testimony before the European Parliament to kick-off the week. Fed Chairman Powell speaks to the NY Economic Club in the middle of the week. Presidents Trump and Xi are to meet at the G20 meeting to end the week in hopes of dialing back the escalating t…

Powell and Draghi, Xi and Trump
Reviewed by Marc Chandler
on
November 25, 2018
Rating: 5