ChM-avez sure to play role in Cuba's future

Guillermo I. MartM-mnez Special Correspondent

Consider for example the early years and decades of the Castro revolution and the effect it had in Latin America, Africa and even the Middle East.

Cuba was a small isolated island - albeit the largest of the Greater Antilles - with a population of less than 10 million people. Yet, alone first, and then as a surrogate of the Soviet Union, Cuba had armies fighting wars in Africa. It ran training centers for guerrilla movements in Central America. It even tried to launch its own guerrilla movements in Venezuela and Bolivia. We recently celebrated the death in Bolivia of Che Guevara in one of Cuba's many failures.

Back in the 1960s and 1970s, political analysts in the hemisphere knew that Cuba was a dangerous opponent willing to send armed men all over the world to defend Soviet interests.

At a dinner party in Peru in 1972, a Cuban intelligence official and a Soviet diplomat got into an argument when the Cuban said that the Soviet Union was not a truly revolutionary regime. "You have the desire to create more communist states all over the world, but we are the ones to put up the dead to achieve these goals."

It was true. Cuban soldiers had become mercenaries for Soviet ambitions in Africa and the Middle East. In the Western Hemisphere Fidel Castro ran training camps for guerrillas fighting in Nicaragua and El Salvador. He provided weapons, training and moral support to the Sandinistas in Nicaragua and the Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front in El Salvador. He sent troops to Grenada to defend the island's socialist government. Who knows where else his revolutionary trainees went?

That was when Castro was younger and Cuba was more aggressive. Despite the assistance from the Soviet Union, Cuba had severe limitations to what it could do to export its revolution to other countries in the hemisphere. All his efforts failed. Being an island helped Cuba survive the demise of the Soviet Union, but it also prevented it from using all its force in helping guerrilla movements in neighboring countries.

Now, one can hear the drums of a new revolutionary offensive rising in Latin America. And they are much more dangerous than in decades past, for they come from countries with contiguous borders.

Understanding precisely how far Venezuelan President Hugo ChM-avez is willing to go is not easy. Some say his bark is bigger than his bite. I, for one, take him at his word.

His comments last weekend from Santa Clara, Cuba concern me. He said that Cuba and Venezuela should form a confederation and added that it made little difference if he or Castro, were president of Cuba, and Venezuela can be meaningless or extremely important.

A few days earlier, ChM-avez said that he would intervene to stop any attempt to kill or oust Evo Morales in Bolivia.

These are not idle threats when the one making them has more petrodollars than he knows what to do with. He could be helping curb poverty, unemployment and inflation in Venezuela. But these mundane things hold no glory. He wants to be the new master of Latin America, or at least of as many countries in South America as he can bully, buy or cajole.

ChM-avez will face internal and external countries. Some large countries in South America will not take kindly to his ever-growing interference in the affairs of other countries. Internally, his opposition, while disorganized, is still willing to put up a struggle.

But unless the United States, Europe, and Organization of American States become more engaged in the region and decide that they must present an alternative to the expansionist ambitions of ChM-avez, the Venezuelan president has a much better chance of success than Cuba had in supporting guerrilla movements in the hemisphere in decades past.

In sharp contrast to Cuba's options, Venezuela has the resources to intervene wherever he sees the opportunity to do so. In contrast to Cuba's isolation, Venezuela and its allies have contiguous borders to most of the countries in South America.

Put Venezuela's monetary resources and Cuba's well-trained military together, and they present a truly formidable force. Forget about who will govern Cuba once Fidel is gone. It is now evident that ChM-avez will play a role there too.

Countries who believe in an open form of government may continue to ignore a Venezuela - Cuba alliance only at an enormous risk.

Guillermo I. MartM-mnez is a journalist living in South Florida. He may be reached at guimar123@gmail.com.