Introduction

In a period characterized by a global crisis of crises, there is a case for exploring any means of articulating the set of those crises and the possibilities for their comprehension as a system. The following exercise identifies 30 trends which inhibit the capacity to engage effectively with those crises and which together constitute a dangerous system.

Of particular concern is the tendency to consider that there is far too much “bad news” and that the quest should be to set it aside as much as possible and focus on the “good news” offering hope for the future. Problematic trends do however provide a form of focus whose nature is more readily recognized than the greater subtlety of remedial possibilities. The question, as with the previous exercises, is whether any kind of systemic “holding pattern” can be elaborated from such a set of trends through which to engage more coherently with them. This could then offer insights into the nature of a possible holding pattern for a complementary set of remedial, corrective trends. This was the ambition of the Encyclopedia of World Problems and Human Potential.

The exploration here assumes that the binary juxtaposition of complementary “negative” and “positive” patterns is necessary but insufficient. It can however be used to frame investigation of possibilities of interweaving these two patterns as a means of eliciting insight into a more complex system which characterizes the dynamics from which more fruitful understanding could be engendered. The “holding patterns” together might then provide a more comprehensible “holding platform” on which initiatives of the future could be designed. The emphasis on a need for comprehension of system dynamics is the reason for which some experimental animations are included.

Use is made of the meteorological metaphor whereby current crises are often compared to hurricanes. This suggests that the understanding of their dynamic complexity could be used to distinguish the contrasting “cyclones” and “anti-cyclones” of the northern and southern hemispheres of social “climate change”. It could then be asked whether some form of “rotation” should be recognized with respect to the viability of the sociosphere (and the noosphere) — as being vital to their sustainability.

As with the previous exercises, the following checklist is a tentative clustering of trends which have been variously recognized by many. It makes no claim to be “complete” and “definitive”, nor is it necessarily as balanced as might prove to be appropriate. The articulation could be much improved. It could be subject to extensive refinement and fine tuning, adding or eliminating items and improving their wording. A justification for isolating a set of 30 trends is indicated in the light of the cybernetic work of Stafford Beer.

Click on Image to Enlarge

Checklist of 30 disabling trends

Systemic erosion of confidence and trust, most notably with regard to:

Politicians, with a vested interest in ensuring their re-election at any cost

Science, with a vested interest in justifying costly research

Professions, with their vested interest in overselling on the basis of their authoritative advice

Business (especially the financial community), with a vested interest in overselling and miss-selling

Alternatively, switching metaphors, there is a sense in which humanity is being sucked into a form of black hole — of which the global financial deficits are appropriately indicative as a public “confidence deficit”. In information terms, this “black hole” would be such as to ensure a very high degree of disruption to the communication on which a global knowledge-based society depends. The situation might be compared to a “memetic singularity” as discussed separately (Emerging Memetic Singularity in the Global Knowledge Society, 2009). One effort to display the set of trends in this form is presented below.

The above representation raises the question as to whether there is a corresponding means of configuring the trends to facilitate the quest for a remedial dynamic — especially given the sense in which they would appear to be dysfunctionally “divergent”, rather than “convergent” as those above. The spiral could be “reversed” to suggest an “anti-cyclone” — or possibly even a “white hole” (cf. Peter Russell, The White Hole in Time: our future evolution and the meaning of Now, 1993). This would then reflect the sense of both a “negative” (“black”) hole to be escaped as problematic and a “positive” (“white) hole as a desirable goal — the resolution of humanity’s challenges. The reversed image might then be presented as follows with the trend labels suggestively reframed to reflect this.

The point can be usefully explored by returning to the meteorological system metaphor in the light of the tentative explorations of J. W. Thompson (Meteorological Models in Social Dynamics: concepts in meteorology, Human Relations, 1961; Meteorological Models in the Social Sciences: complex processes in meteorology and sociology, General Systems Yearbook, 1962). In the case of the planetary global weather system:

a cyclone is usually characterized by inward spiraling winds into a region of low pressure — rotating counterclockwise in the northern hemisphere and clockwise in the southern hemisphere

an anti-cyclone (as the reverse of a cyclone) is usually characterized by outward spiraling winds from a region of high pressure — rotating clockwise in the northern hemisphere and counterclockwise in the southern hemisphere.

Many animations of these natural phenomena are available on the web. Few appear to make evident the situation in the southern hemisphere, or the relation between those in in the northern and southern hemispheres.

The portrayal of the problematic spiral in the first image (above) is consistent with a cyclone in the northern hemisphere. The portrayal of the remedial spiral in the second image is consistent with an anti-cyclone in the northern hemisphere. The directions are consistent with the widespread convention that clockwise is “good” and counterclockwise is “bad”. This is evident in interpretation of use of the traditional swastika symbol (cf. Swastika as Dynamic Pattern Underlying Psychosocial Power Processes, 2012). This overly simplistic representation of the dynamics in a global social system then raises questions about the corresponding “systems” in the “southern hemisphere”.

With respect to the infoset structure based on the icosahedron, as applied to the configuration of a set of “function-teams” within an organization, each vertex corresponds to such a team. In the case of the icosahedron there are therefore 12 function-teams (with distinct agendas) with 5 edges leading to each vertex. 5 distinct functions can then be associated with each team.

As an edge of the icosahedron, each function is associated with two different function-teams — namely connecting two different function-teams. Each of the 30 plays two roles which are polar opposite to one another. The 30 functions can then be understood as alternating between two contrary complementary — reinforcing that trend and challenging that trend. This means that each such function-team configures 5 elements supportive of that function and 5 elements critical of that function — a pattern of checks and balances.

In Beyond Dispute, Beer explained that retaining the “twelveness” of the topics examined and maintaining some separation between opposite topics was desirable to reduce the risk that topics and positions would collapse onto each other. This was given mathematical formulation when Assad Jalali noted that the icosahedron was a Paley Graph of diameter three – that is that the opposite poles do not share any members or critics since it takes three steps to get from one pole to the other.

In the poem, the birds of the world gather to decide who is to be their king, as they have none. The hoopoe, the wisest of them all, suggests that they should find the legendary Simorgh, a mythical Persian bird roughly equivalent to the western phoenix. The hoopoe leads the birds, each of whom represent a human fault which prevents man from attaining enlightenment. When the group of thirty birds finally reach the dwelling place of the Simorgh, all they find is a lake in which they see their own reflection.

The poem names and characterizes 18 of the birds (hoopoe, nightingale, partridge, parrot, peacock, huma, owl, duck,heron, finch,hawk, falcon, wagtail, turtle dove, pigeon, francolin, pheasant, goldfinch) of which those italicized offer distinct “excuses” for not participating in the journey — to which the hoopoe offers persuasively insightful responses. The poem continues with respect to the other 12 uncharacterized birds of that avian ecosystem as follows.

The other birds in turn received their chance
To show off their loquacious ignorance.
All made excuses – floods of foolish words
Flowed from these babbling, rumour-loving birds.
Forgive me, reader, if I do not say
All these excuses to avoid the Way;
But in an incoherent rush they came,
And all were inappropriate and lame.
How could they gain the Simorgh? Such a goal
Belongs to those who discipline the soul.

The hoopoe counselled them: The world holds few
As worthy of the Simorgh’s throne as you,
But you must empty this first glass; the wine
That follows it is love’s devoted sign.
If petty problems keep you back — or none —
How will you seek the treasures of the sun?
In drops you lose yourselves, yet you must dive
Through untold fathoms and remain alive.
This is no journey for the indolent —
Our quest is Truth itself, not just its scent!

Conclusion

“Re-cognition” of a solution? In these strange times when many claim to have solutions to global crises — with others claiming to be in quest of an appropriate solution — there is a fundamental assumption which merits consideration. Would the most appropriate solution be recognizable — even comprehensible — and to whom? (cf. Comprehension of Appropriateness, 1986). Why is it assumed that it would be — when any “solution” proposed clearly evokes an array of well-considered objections? What would a “solution” to the crises of the times “look” like? Expressed as a strategic “vision”, could people “see” it? Or would it be effectively “invisible” — requiring articulation through metaphors based on other senses (cf. Metaphor and the Language of Futures, 1992)?

Question vs. Answer? Ironically, as with the constrained capacity to “see” a globe (because one side is necessarily hidden), any claims to be able to “see” a global solution may be analogously mistaken. Might the “solution” then be more of a question than an answer — especially for the individual challenged to engage with the world? (cf. Am I Question or Answer? Problem or (Re)solution? 2006). Does any declaration to the effect that “We Have a Plan” embody an oversimplistic mode of thinking: “We”? “Have”? “A”? “Plan”? Who can justify such exclusively singular possessiveness? Is “Plan” not intimately related to static, two-dimensional thinking — at a time when greater complexity is surely required?

Imposing a solution? A further assumption is that if only the “right” solution could be found, the powerful would indeed “recognize” it and would ensure that it is implemented in the “best interests of all” — irrespective of other views on the matter. This would seem to be the case with respect to the geo-engineering initiative (Geo-engineering Oversight Agency for Thermal Stabilization (GOATS), 2008).

Integrating alternatives? Conventional thinkers cannot deny that cyclones and anti-cyclones do not have an “alternative” significance in the “other” part of the global weather system. Any such claim might even be said to be strangely reminiscent of that allegedly made by King Canute — in claiming to be “ruler of the waves” — for which he has been much ridiculed by history. The same would appear to apply with respect to the global psychosocial system and any efforts to govern it appropriately. The USA may be recognized — in future assessment of the economic policies it promotes with the complicity of the World Economic Forum — as the “King Canute” of the current era. Of relevance is the explicit intolerance of the Allende “alternative” in Chile by the Nixon regime (with the advice of Henry Kissinger), where Stafford Beer had implemented the Cybersyn approach to socio-economic management (cf. Eden Medina, Designing Freedom — Regulating a Nation: socialist cybernetics in Allende’s Chile, Journal of Latin American Studies, 2006).

Imagining richer connectivity? Systematic denial of the role of imagination, as with the TINA denial of any “alternative”, suggests that not only does current strategic thinking neglect “the other hemisphere” in the global system, but it also neglects “the other hemisphere” of the (global) brain. Could the global system be understood as having been effectively lobotomised — a form of therapy for which the Nobel Prize was awarded in 1949? Is this “procedure” in process of emulation with respect to connections within the “global brain“? The animations above are a contribution to eliciting imagination regarding the unusual degrees of connectivity which the future appears to require.

Rotation? The final spiral animation above is suggestive of the kinds of dynamic connectivity “between hemispheres” required within a healthy global knowledge-based society — and within any global brain. Rotation is required for the sustainability of the natural systems vital to the viability of the biosphere. As suggested by the meteorological metaphor, it might then be asked whether some form of “rotation” should be recognized with respect to the viability of the sociosphere (and the noosphere) — as being vital to their sustainability.

Local complexity within a global system? A great deal is now known about about the “local” structure of cyclones (hot air, low pressure, etc) within the planetary weather system. Why not apply some of that systemic thinking to exploring how spiralling trends might also be of relatively “local” and “seasonal” nature within a global society — even if their frequency is building towards a perfect storm of social climate change?

Meteorological Models in the Social Sciences: complex processes in meteorology and sociology. General Systems Yearbook, 7, 1962, pp. 283-291

J. Truss, C. Cullen and A. Leonard. The Coherent Architecture of Team Syntegrity: from small to mega forms. In: Proceedings of the 44th Conference of the International Society for Systems Science, 2000 [text]