This is the second in a five-part series analyzing the 2013 Hall of Fame ballot. Sporting News’ Stan McNeal, a voting member of the Baseball Writers' Association of America, will break down the candidates prior to the announcement of the voting results Jan. 9.

If Jack Morris makes the Hall of Fame in 2013, he will do so without my vote.

Jeff Bagwell ended his career with 449 home runs. (AP Photo)

Yes, I know. Morris was a great workhorse starter who saved his best for the biggest games. But a career 3.90 ERA isn’t worthy of the Hall of Fame, in my opinion. It’s that simple, really.

For me, anyway. For others, we’ll see.

Of the 13 “carryover” players on this year’s 37-player ballot (players need to receive 5 percent of the votes to stay on the ballot), Morris stands the best chance of induction this time around. He needs a bump of just 8.3 points to reach the 75 percent required for induction. Based on history, he stands an excellent chance of such an improvement.

Now, what Morris has done to improve his chances in the past year is another story. I mean, he hasn’t pitched in a big-league game since 1994. Why he would be a Hall of Famer in 2013 when he wasn’t in 2000 is one of the concepts I haven’t quite grasped after three years of voting.

If I didn’t vote for Morris in 2012, why would I in 2013?

The only holdovers that I will vote for this year are the two I voted for last year: Jeff Bagwell and Tim Raines. Bagwell earns my X based mainly on a career OPS of .948 that ranks 22nd all-time. Raines ranks fifth in stolen bases and the top four all are Hall of Famers. Combine that with the fact he played 23 years and ranks 53rd in runs scored and he’s deserving. But I can see why others believe he isn’t.

Likewise, I also can see why other voters might support the other holdovers on the ballot. These guys all were great players. They just weren’t Hall of Famers, in my opinion. Here’s my take on their cases.

Lee Smith, 11th time on the ballot, received 50.6 percent of the votes in 2012. He was the all-time saves leader until Trevor Hoffman broke his record. But Smith’s other numbers are less than dominant, including a 3.03 ERA that ranks 175th all-time (minimum of 1,000 innings pitched).

Alan Trammell, 12th time, 36.8 percent. Played 20 seasons all with the Tigers, made six All-Star teams and won four Gold Gloves as a shortstop. He also hit .285/.352/.415. So why don’t I vote for him? He finished top five in MVP voting only once, which tells me he rarely was considered one of the very best players during his era.

Edgar Martinez, fourth time, 36.5 percent. As impressive as is his .312/.415/.515 career line, he falls well short in the “magic” numbers department with 2,247 hits (3,000 being “magic") and 309 homers (500). Not quite enough to be the first DH inducted.

Fred McGriff, fourth time, 23.9 percent. Seven more homers and he would have hit the magic number of 500. But a line has to be drawn somewhere and given that power was his biggest asset, he falls seven homers short of my vote.

Larry Walker, 3rd time, 22.9 percent. He was an MVP, a three-time batting champ and a seven-time Gold Glover. But aside from a .565 slugging percentage that’s 13th all-time, his best ranking is 60th in homers, with 383. Again, that’s not quite enough, especially after factoring in—a little—the Coors Field effect.

Don Mattingly, 13th, 17.8 percent. As sweet a lefty swing as anyone, and he put it to good use with a .307 career average. But 2,153 hits and 222 homers don’t say Cooperstown for me.

Dale Murphy, 15th, 14.5 percent. A two-time MVP, one of the top players of the 1980s and a true Hall of Fame person. He’s such a tough omission, in fact, that I will devote a story to his case in the coming days.

Rafael Palmeiro, 3rd, 12.6 percent. With 3,020 hits and 569 homers, he is one of only four players to finish with more than 3,000 hits and 500 homers. But he cheated.

Bernie Williams, 2nd, 9.6 percentage. A very fine player but I doubt he would have received the 5 percent votes needed to make it back on the ballot if he had not played for the Yankees.