Live Index – Thu, 22 May 2014 Premarket

PREMARKET WORLD NEWS

June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 +0.03%) this morning are up +0.05% at a 1-week high and European stocks are down -0.18%. U.S. stocks found support on stronger-than-expected Chinese manufacturing data, while European stocks slipped after German manufacturing activity rose at its slowest pace in 6 months. Asian stocks closed mostly higher: Japan +2.11%, Hong Kong +0.51%, China -0.22%, Taiwan +1.21%, Australia +1.02%, Singapore +0.12%, South Korea +0.35%, India +0.31%. China’s Shanghai Stock Index shed early gains and closed lower despite the larger-than-expected increase in the China May HSBC manufacturing PMI to a 5-month high, while India’s Sensex Stock Index posted another record high as it continues its recent bull run. Commodity prices are mixed. July crude oil (CLN14 -0.09%) is down -0.11%. July gasoline (RBN14 unch) is unch. Jun gold (GCM14 +0.79%) is up +0.68%. July copper (HGN14 +0.72%) is up +0.94%. Agriculture and livestock prices are mostly higher. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.08%) is up +0.04%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.09%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.19%. June T-note prices (ZNM14 -0.10%) are down -2.5 ticks.

The China May HSBC manufacturing PMI rose +1.6 to 49.7, better than expectations of +0.2 to 48.3 and the highest level in 5 months.

The German May Markit/BME manufacturing PMI fell -1.2 to 52.9, a larger decline than expectations of -0.1 to 54.0 and the slowest pace of expansion in 6 months.

The Eurozone May Markit composite PMI fell -0.1 to 53.9, right on expectations.

UK May CBI trends total orders rose +1 to 0, less than expectations of +4 to 3. May CBI trends selling prices unexpectedly fell -5 to 4, weaker than expectations of +1 to 10.

UK Apr public sector net borrowing rose +9.6 billion pounds, more than expectations of +3.4 billion pounds and the most in 5 months.

UK Q1 GDP was left unrevised at +0.8% q/q and +3.1% y/y, right on expectations, although Q1 private consumption was revised upward to +0.8% q/q from the originally reported +0.6% q/q and Q1 government spending was revised downward to +0.1% q/q from the originally reported +0.2% q/q.

The Japan May Markit/JMMA manufacturing PMI rose +0.5 to 49.9.

U.S. STOCK PREVIEW

Today’s weekly initial unemployment claims report is expected to show an increase of +13,000 to 310,000, reversing part of last week’s -24,000 decline to 297,000. Meanwhile, today’s continuing claims report is expected to show an increase of +8,000 to 2.675 million, reversing most of last week’s decline of -9,000 to 2.667 million. Today’s April existing home sales report is expected to show an increase of +2.2% to 4.69 million, more than reversing the small -0.2% decline to 4.59 million seen in March. Today’s April leading indicators report is expected to show an increase of +0.4%, adding to the sharp increase of +0.8% seen in March. The Treasury today will sell $ 13 billion of 10-year TIPS.

June E-mini S&Ps (ESM14 +0.03%) this morning are up +1.00 point (+0.05%) at a 1-week high. The S&P 500 index on Wednesday closed higher. Bullish factors for stock included (1) upbeat Q1 company earnings results as Bloomberg data shows 75% of the S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings results beat estimates and that 53% of the companies exceeded sales projections, and (2) the Apr 29-30 FOMC minutes that stated Fed members saw little risk of inflation from continued stimulus. Closes: S&P 500 +0.81%, Dow Jones +0.97%, Nasdaq +0.98%.

Jun 10-year T-notes (ZNM14 -0.10%) this morning are down -2.5 ticks. Jun 10-year T-note futures prices on Wednesday closed lower as a rally in stocks reduced the safe-haven demand for Treasuries: TYM4 -6.00, FVM4 -2.75. T-notes recovered from their worst levels after the minutes of the Apr 29-30 FOMC meeting stated that policy makers said continued stimulus to push unemployment lower doesn’t risk sparking an undesirable jump in the inflation rate.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.08%) this morning is up +0.032 (+0.04%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0012 (-0.09%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.19 (+0.19%). The dollar index on Wednesday closed higher: Dollar index +0.054 (+0.07%), EUR/USD -0.00148 (-0.11%), USD/JPY +0.036 (+0.04%). Bullish factors for the dollar included (1) the Apr 29-30 FOMC meeting minutes that stated policy makers saw little risk of inflation from continued stimulus to push the unemployment rate lower, and (2) weakness in EUR/USD which fell to a 3-1/4 month low on divergent monetary policies between the Fed, which is tapering stimulus, and the ECB which is expected to add to stimulus. This boosts the interest rate differentials in favor of the dollar over the euro.

July WTI crude oil (CLN14 -0.09%) this morning is down -11 cents (-0.11%). July gasoline (RBN14 unch) is unch. July crude and gasoline prices on Wednesday closed higher with July crude at a 1-month high: CLN4 +1.74 (+1.70%) RBN4 +0.0291 (+0.99%). Bullish factors included (1) the -7.226 million bbl plunge in weekly EIA crude inventories, a larger decline than expectations of unch, and (2) the -225,000 bbl drop in crude supplies at Cushing, OK, the delivery point for WTI futures, to a fresh 5-1/3 year low.