Panic shook a small Surprise neighborhood this month when residents received a postcard in the mail noting that a "high-density" apartment complex could be coming to an 11-acre dirt lot behind their community.

A flood of neighbors from the Sanalina community filled the City Council chambers on Jan. 17, asking the council to deny a zoning change that would allow apartments, although the council won't vote on the issue for at least three months.

"These apartments will only add to an already existing traffic problem with speeding and volume inside our development," Joe Carlie told the council.

"They will be coming into our community to use our playgrounds. ... How are we going to stop folks from coming in and using our facilities and breaking them?" Lisa Terror added.

"One of our main concerns is not only traffic, but the possibility of increased crime," Julie Helms said.

But the developer and rental experts say some of these concerns are misguided.

NexMetro Communities plans to build a complex that does not match up with traditional apartment buildings. For example, the 133-unit complex would be gated, single-story and consist of mostly detached homes with private backyards. Rent prices would be between $1,000 and $1,600 per month.

"It's a hybrid," said Jacque Petroulakis, executive vice president of marketing and investor relations for NexMetro Communities. "It's not an apartment, not single-family home for sale — it's gated, single-family homes for lease."

The developer operates multiple "Avilla" complexes across the Valley, including a location in Goodyear, with similar styles.

Tom Simplot, president and CEO of Arizona Multihousing Association, said the concerns expressed by the residents are common concerns voiced when a rental property is proposed — and they're emotional arguments that lack merit.

"That would be fake news," he said. "Those allegations are certainly not fact based."

Simplot and Petroulaskis said more people of varying demographics are choosing to rent over purchase because of the increased flexibility and decreased responsibilities.

"There have only been two new apartment communities built since the recession west of I-17. So imagine what the pent up demand is in the West Valley," Simplot said.

Regardless, some residents say they're not buying it.

Commercial vs. residential zoning

The 11-acre vacant lot at the northeastern corner of Reems and Waddell roads is zoned for commercial development and would need to be rezoned to high-density residential for the project to move forward.

While commercial zoning could lead to boutique stores and restaurants, it also allows for a plethora of other less-desirable options, including pawn shops, title-loan companies, marijuana dispensaries, tattoo parlors and funeral homes, said zoning attorney Brian Greathouse, who represented the developer at a community meeting Jan 26.

His warning was met with grumbles from the nearly 150 people who packed into a small conference room at the Holiday Inn Express in Surprise.

"That's just to scare us," shouted one woman.

Zoning attorney Brennan Ray, who also appeared on behalf of the developer, noted that property values are often influenced by the unknown. An empty lot, which could be transformed into any number of commercial uses, may concern some homebuyers and curb home prices in the surrounding areas.

"If I were faced with the prospect of commercial or residential … I would take residential every day of the week and twice on Sunday," Ray said.

Councilman John Williams, who represents the area, said he is leaning toward leaving the zoning as it is after talking to his constituents.

"They were there first. They bought a house knowing there was going to be commercial there, so my inclination is let's develop commercial," he said.

Traffic concerns

Residents told the zoning attorneys they were extremely concerned with the number of extra vehicles and congestion an apartment complex would bring to their neighborhoods.

The entrance to the complex would be off Waddell Road, but another exit-only gate would allow vehicles to access Ludlow Drive, the main thoroughfare for the Sanalina neighborhood, where residents say there is already a traffic problem. They suggested the exit gate be placed along Reems Road instead.

Greathouse said that while he understood the concern, a commercial development on that land would likely bring more than six times the amount of traffic.

"If you're having a problem with traffic today, commercial will make that worse," he said. "We think this is a much better option for the community for traffic."

There were 29 accidents near the Reems and Waddell intersection in 2016, including one fatality.

Maintenance and crime

One of the larger grievances aired at the community meeting pertained to maintenance of the park paid for by the Sanalina homeowners association.

Residents said they recently spent thousands of dollars repairing a playground in their community, and they are concerned that children from the apartment complex would use their parks and playgrounds without paying for them.

Additionally, some people said they worried about increased crime apartments would bring.

There are currently seven apartment complexes in Surprise that are not restricted by age or income level, and four of them have a lower number of police calls per housing unit than the Sanalina community.

In 2016, the department received 123 calls from the 209-home Salina community, or about 0.58 calls per unit. The apartment complex that's nearest to the proposed Avilla community, Villas at Mountain Vista Ranch, had 138 calls from the 256 units, or 0.54 calls per unit.

These numbers represent only the police calls for service, not officer-initiated activity. The calls include non-criminal requests like welfare checks.

What's next

The developer will host another neighborhood meeting before the zoning change goes before the planning and zoning commission and Surprise City Council. The attorneys said they plan to take residents' concerns and suggestions back to the developer and consider revisions.

Resident Zac Madsen, 33, said after the meeting that he's opposed to the project because his driveway would be directly across from the exit-only gate on Ludlow Drive. But, he said if the developer made the changes his neighbors suggested, he'd be willing to get on board with the project.

"If they're willing to make the changes, I think we owe them that," Madsen said.

Bill Tomsa, 69, was less enthusiastic. He said he bought his home seven months ago under the impression that the dirt lot would be a commercial property, which would benefit his neighborhood. All an apartment complex would bring is "more cars, more people," he said to the applause of about half the room.

He said the proposed project may look nice, but it's not worth the problems it would create.