MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0038
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1046 AM CST TUE JAN 28 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA...SRN MS AND AL...WRN GA
CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION
VALID 281646Z - 282245Z
SUMMARY...A SW-NE ELONGATED ZONE OF WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL
PERSIST FROM LA INTO GA TODAY...WITH AREAS OF LIGHT
SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.
DISCUSSION...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SEWD ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY WITH MIDLEVEL JET INCREASING FURTHER INTO THE SRN
APPALACHIANS LATER TONIGHT. MOISTENING ATOP THE SURFACE RIDGE ALSO
CONTINUED IN ANTICIPATION OF THE TROUGH...WITH A LARGE SHIELD OF
PRECIP FROM SERN TX INTO GA.
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS GONE INTO COOLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WHICH IS RELATIVELY DRY FROM AL NEWD ACROSS GA AND ESPECIALLY THE
CAROLINAS. UPSTREAM HRLY QPF OF 0.01-0.05 INCHES HAS OCCURRED...AND
MODELS INDICATE ONLY A MARGINAL INCREASE IN QPF WILL OCCUR THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A NARROW TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN
FREEZING RAIN PROFILES WHICH WILL BE IMMEDIATELY ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE SURFACE FREEZING LINE...TO SLEET AND SNOW DUE TO RAPIDLY
DEEPENING COLD AIR AND SUB FREEZING PROFILES ALOFT. CURRENT SREF
MEAN PTYPE PROGS APPEAR REASONABLE WITH A GRADUAL SWD SHIFT IN THE
FREEZING LINE DUE IN PART TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING WITH SNOW ALONG THE
NRN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WHERE THE ENTIRE PROFILE WILL
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING.
..JEWELL.. 01/28/2014
ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...
LAT...LON 31928786 33018490 33008406 32698373 32248375 31388463
30978576 30318768 30188904 29859056 29939101 30459113
31129040 31928786