Rangers at Maple Leafs 12/28/19 – Odds and NHL Betting Trends

The Toronto Maple Leafs take some mixed trends into the tailend of a back-to-back, but the New York Rangers have two troubling ones.

The Maple Leafs are a -222 betting favourite while the Rangers are a +180 underdog with a 6.0-goal total on the NHL odds for Saturday at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. Both teams were in action the evening prior, with the Maple Leafs earning a 5-4 overtime road win against the New Jersey Devils while the Rangers defeated the Carolina Hurricanes 5-3 at home.

The Maple Leafs are 1-7 in their last eight games when they played the previous day, but are also 13-2 in their last 15 games as a home favourite of -200 to -250 on the moneyline. The Rangers are 5-12 in their last 17 games on the second of a back-to-back with the total finishing OVER 12 times at betting sites. They are also 7-13 in their last 20 games as an away underdog of +170 to +200 with the total finishing OVER 14 times.

The Rangers are 18-15-4 this season and have delivered decent value as a road underdog, going 7-8 in such matchups this season. But while the Maple Leafs are one of the NHL’s best teams at driving pace and generating a high volume of shot attempts, the Rangers with their attack led by left wing Artemi Panarin is 31st and last in the NHL in five-on-five shot-attempt percentage (44.2 percent). The Rangers are 10th in goals scored (3.22 per game) but rank 26th in goals against (3.22). Their power play is ranked 17th (18.9 percent) and the penalty kill is ranked 22nd (78.9).

Henrik Lundqvist had a 42-shot workload while earning the win against Carolina on Friday. That would suggest the goaltending start will go to Alexandar Georgiev, who has a 9-7-1 record this season with a 2.93 goals-against average and .915 save percentage.

The Maple Leafs are 21-14-4 this season as they ride a six-game win streak where they have scored an average of 5.33 goals per game. Toronto is fifth in the league in five-on-five shot-attempt percentage (52.8 percent) as John Tavares’ and Auston Matthews’ lines have provided a strong 1-2 punch. Toronto will have to try to maintain continuity as left wing Ilya Mikheyev (wrist laceration), who had been flanking Tavares, is out indefinitely. The Maple Leafs are third in goals scored (3.51) but 23rd in goals against (3.18). On special teams, they have the sixth-ranked power play (23.3 percent) and 26th-ranked penalty kill (75.8).

Frederik Andersen is 19-8-3 this season with a 2.64 goals-against average and .916 save percentage.

The Maple Leafs start next week with a two-game road trip, visiting the Minnesota Wild on Tuesday and the Winnipeg Jets on Thursday.

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