MY VIEW is that bookmakers have got the probabilities roughly right, and have listed a top flight set of candidates. My money would be on Kemal Dervis as he has the right experience and qualifications and Turkey might be considered close enough to Europe to satisfy Europeans. Some candidates are non-starters for reasons of their nationality (the World Bank and the IMF cannot both be run by Americans). Others are rightly long-shots for different reasons, even those that are spectacularly well qualified like Stan Fischer (who has been there before, as Deputy Managing Director) or former heads of state like Gordon Brown.

Keep in mind that the World Bank will look to appoint a new head in only a year. Some of the candidates from developing countries might be better suited for the World Bank, which focuses more on long-run development than crisis management. Montek Ahluwalia or Trevor Manuel, for instance, are both great non-American candidates to head that organisation.

Given the situation today, if you compare the CV of the two actual candidates (Lagarde & Carstens) it is pretty obvious that the decision should favor Mexico's Carstens. Just consider the experience: 4 vs 30 years of experience in Economic policymaking... I urge you to read the CV's and statements of both candidates. It is just wrong how nationality pollutes decision making and how old traditions keep us from efficiency.

Developing Countries have experiences with crises. Particularly notable are the Latin American debt crises, we can think of the 1980s or the 1995 so called 'Tequila Crisis' in Mexico. It is all about the right timing, there are lessons learnt in all those episodes that could be usefull at the moment.
In my view a developing country economist should lead the IMF, a good choice could be Agustin Carstens from Mexico (he's got plenty of research devoted to debt crisis, stability, and so on)

Kemal Dervis is the perfect candidate. He is close to europe,has experience with a financial crisis, and he is in a non-european country. This means that he will get the support of both european and non-european countries.

Kemal Dervis is the perfect candidate. He is close to europe,has experience with a financial crisis, and he is in a non-european country. This means that he will get the support of both european and non-european countries.

Economics by invitation

About our guest

Professor of the Practice of International Development at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government

United States

Contributions: 9

Lant Pritchett is currently Professor of the Practice of International Development and Faculty Chair of the Masters in Public Policy in International Development (MPA/ID) program at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government. Prior to returning the the Kennedy School in 2007, he was lead Socio-Economist in the Social Development group of the South Asia region of the World Bank, resident in Delhi, 2004-2007. He has published widely in economics journals and in specialized journals on demography, education, and health.Finally, he has been engaged in policy dialogue and projects with governments and civil society around the world, both with the World Bank and as a consultant while at Harvard.