The Saudi Arabian government’s plan to diversify its power sector away from oil-fired generation will be restricted as continued low oil prices constrain fiscal spending. Thermal power generation will remain dominant over our 10-year forecast period, particularly through gas-fired projects. Fiscal pressures and stringent local content requirements will be an obstacle to the nascent renewable power sector and the government will struggle to meet its capacity targets.

Latest Trends And Developments:
– To finance construction of the 2640 megawatt (MW) Shuqaiq power plant, the Saudi Electricity Company (SEC) has signed a USD900mn loan agreement with the Export-Import Bank of Korea (KEXIM) and several other international banks, including Santander Bank, Deutsche Bank and the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ. The total cost of the power plant is estimated at USD3.2bn.
– Under the newly unveiled ‘Saudi Arabia Vision 2030’ plan, the government has announced that it now plans to increase gas-fired capacity to generate 70% of total electricity output in the country by 2030.
– Under the same plan, the Saudi Arabian government has decided to alter its renewable targets. Targets have been reduced to 9.5GW of renewable capacity by 2023. This is after the decision was made to push back the target of 41GW of solar to 2040 (after it was originally planned for 2032). We forecast these decreased targets will remain due to the prolonged period of low oil prices forecast, which will drag down government revenue and constrain fiscal spending.
– We also note that the plan makes no mention of nuclear power, which we will monitor as it could mean that future plans for nuclear will be scrapped.
– The amount of gas required to reach the desired goals outlined in the Vision 2030 plan means we do not include this into our forecasts as of yet until we see progress in developing gas-fired capacity (as well as gas exploration) to the capacity required to achieve this target.
– SEC has called for two tenders of 50 megawatts (MW) of solar capacity each. The two solar farms are planned to be in the regions of Al-Jouf and Rafha.

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