Sunday, May 04, 2014

I haven’t been able to crank out a Lazy one the past
two weeks, as Easter and my wife’s birthday conspired to make things even
crazier than usual around the house. Hopefully I’ll make it up to you this
week, as I’m unveiling just shy of 5,000 words on the Indians minor league
system and how the performances of some of the prospects in the organization stack
up after the first month of the season. The below stats are only through April
30, so they won’t include Francisco Lindor’s home run from Friday, or Clint
Frazier’s walk-off single. Hopefully you enjoy the in-depth look at the org, as
I’ve been able to see both Carolina and Akron several times this season
already, and I’ve seen a lot of interesting stuff from players at both of those
levels. The Columbus and Lake County info will be primarily statistics based,
but I’ll be incorporating the views of some trusted friends and colleagues who’ve
gotten first-hand looks at the AAA and low-A affiliates. So without further
ado, let’s get at it here on the first Lazy Sunday in the month of May.

Akron RubberDucks catcher Tony Wolters is hitting .286/.329/.325 with 3 2B and 6 RBI in 21 AA
games. That Wolters has 22 hits in the month of April is especially
encouraging, because he had just 16 hits in 28 April games in the 2012/13
seasons. The 21-year old is young for the level and still learning a new
defensive position, which happens to be the most physically and mentally
demanding position on the field. Wolters could hit .100 for the season with no
HR and still have a productive developmental season. He’s improving every day
with the glove, and talent evaluators outside the Indians organization feel
confident that he can play the position at the major league level someday.
Watching him catch makes you wonder if he was secretly playing the position
during the offseason prior to 2013. His hands are strong, he’s already a good
receiver of the baseball and he’s improving his blocking on pitches in the
dirt. He’s thrown out 6 of 13 would-be basestealers (46% CS rate!) this year.
Oh, and he’s
still got the ability to do this if he’s called upon to play 2B
(two appearances at 2B this season). Wolters has long been one of my personal
favorites in the organization, and he’s got the attention of plenty of people
around baseball right now as a future major league backstop.

Outfielder Bryson
Myles is another who’s off to a solid start this season. Myles is hitting
.292/.350/.444 with a HR, 4 2B, 2 3B and 6 RBI. He’s swiped three bases while
also being caught three times, and provides above-average defense in LF for the
RubberDucks. Myles is a career .291/.363/.405 hitter in 265 minor league games,
and it’s good to see him maintaining his production despite the jump to AA this
season.

Clippers catcher Roberto Perez has been playing out of his mind this season. Coming
into 2014, Perez was a career .227/.359/.326 hitter with 14 HR in 461 minor
league games. He was always an elite defender behind the plate, but struggled
to do much on the offensive side of the game. It’s a small sample size, but in
the season’s first month he’s broken out to a .409/.519/.727 line with 4 HR and
12 RBI. He’s walked 10 times and struck out 8 in 16 games with Columbus. It’s a
remarkable line, and unprecedented in Perez’s career. He appeared in 67 games
with Columbus last year, and hit just .176/.269/.241 with no homers. It
was revealed earlier this week that Perez played the 2013 season while
suffering from Bell’s palsy, which partially paralyzed the
left side of his face (to include his left eye). As a right-handed hitter,
Perez’s left eye is his lead eye, and problems with that eye would have to make
it especially difficult to hit. It’s a great story, and it’s fantastic to see
Perez finding success with his offensive game commensurate with his fantastic
defense. If Perez can be even a competent hitter, then he could have a very
long and productive major league career.

Photo Credit: Al Ciammaichella

Carolina Mudcats shortstop Erik Gonzalez has always been a solid defender, but he’s been
making an impact with the bat this season as well. Gonzalez is hitting
.341/.368/.495 with a HR, 5 2B, 3 3B and 11 RBI. Gonzalez is a big, athletic
kid who has a very projectable frame. He should add strength as he fills out,
and has the potential to be an impact player in the middle of the diamond.
Gonzalez used to have a big, high leg lift that created timing issues, as he
was often out on his front foot on off-speed pitches and had some trouble
timing up his hands and his left leg. When I saw him in early April, the high
leg lift was still there. But when I saw him last weekend in Frederick, it was
much lower and less pronounced. His hands were quieter prior to loading and his
timing looked much better as a result. If Gonzalez can stick with and refine
these mechanical adjustments to his swing, he could be a top-10 prospect in the
Indians organization this coming offseason.

Southpaw starter T.J. House started four games for the Clippers in April, and
finished the month with a miniscule 1.59 ERA in 22 2/3 IP. House allowed 3 ER
in his first start of the season, and has given up just 1 ER in his last three
outings. He’s struck out 16 and walked just 5. He’s never been and will never
be a guy who misses a ton of bats, but he does a nice job commanding the ball
within the strike zone and keeps the ball on the ground and in the ballpark.
House still projects best as a back-end starter, but can be an effective
innings-eater in a major league rotation.

Jordan
Cooper is pitching out of the Akron bullpen to start off
the season after shoulder surgery this winter, and has a 2-0 record with a 3.00
ERA in 12 AA IP. He’s struck out 11 and walked just 3 so far, and looks like
he’s stretching back out to move back into the starting rotation. Cooper’s last
outing was on April 29, where he went 3 innings while allowing just one
baserunner and striking out a pair.

I tried and failed to upload video straight to the
site here, so to get a look at catching prospect Francisco Mejia you’ll have to hop over to youtube. Here’s video that I shot of
Mejia collecting three hits in Goodyear, and here’s a slow-motion video
of Mejia singling up the middle so you can get a good look at his swing
mechanics. Mejia is a fun guy to dream on, and I can’t wait until the 18-year
old catcher is assigned to one of the Indians affiliates so more fans can get a
look at him. For now, he’s toiling away in extended spring training and will
likely get another year in the complex leagues when those games start up in
late-June.

Akron reliever Kyle
Crockett is picking up right where he left off last season, opening 2014
with 9 1/3 scoreless innings pitched out of the RubberDuck bullpen. Crockett
has allowed just four base runners this year (3 hits and one walk) while
striking out 9. The lefty now has a career ERA of 0.26 in 34 professional
innings pitched, and could find himself in Cleveland as soon as this season if
the need arises. He’s not a hard thrower, working more off of a deceptive
motion and pinpoint control.

After 18 games in AA to close out the 2013 season,
CF Tyler Naquin is back in Akron
this year. He’s hitting .267/.344/.384 with 4 2B and 3 3B this year, stealing 5
bases in 7 attempts. Naquin is struggling against same-side pitchers, hitting a
robust .321/.400/.491 against righties but just .182/.250/.212 against lefties.
I got to see Naquin’s best tool play in a game against Bowie a couple of weeks
ago, as he preserved an Akron victory with a walk-off outfield assist in the
bottom of the 9th inning. There were runners on 1st and 2nd
with 2 outs in the 9th with Akron clinging to a one-run lead, and a
Bowie hitter sent a grounder back up the middle and into CF. With any other
player in CF, the game would be tied. Naquin charged the soft grounder, had a
little trouble getting a handle on the ball but still managed to throw a
perfect, one-hop strike to catcher Tony Wolters to send Akron home with a win.
It was an incredible play, and a great opportunity to see just how much of an
impact Naquin can make in the field.

Photo Credit: Al Ciammaichella

Another RubberDuck who’s been opening eyes around
baseball with his play this year is 3B Gio
Urshela. Urshela is hitting .302/.344/.570 with 5 HR (tied for 4th
in the Eastern League), 8 doubles and 19 RBI (tied for 3rd in the
EL). Urshela put up a .676 OPS in 116 AA games last season, so his .914 mark
this year is a huge leap and probably not sustainable for a full season. But
he’s added strength to his frame over the offseason, and is really showing an
improvement in his ability to drive balls to the opposite field. He’s still a
potential Gold Glove defender at 3B, so an improvement with the bat would
really make him a serious prospect. In the same game that Naquin made the play
I described above, Urshela turned in a highlight-level defensive play of his
own. He went deep behind the 3B bag to backhand a ball and then made a strong
throw across the diamond while still running away from 1B. It looked almost like
Manny Machado’s web gem from last July, showing both Urshela’s
incredible range and arm strength. He’s definitely a guy to keep an eye on as
the season progresses.

Venezuelan-born 1B Jesus Aguilar is feasting on the offense-friendly environment of
Clippers Huntington Park this year. Aguilar is hitting .356/.440/.667 with 7
HR, 6 2B and 16 RBI. The 7 HR are good for 2nd in the International
League. The line may prove to be a little deceiving though, as Aguilar has a
1.320 OPS and 6 HR in 14 home games and just a .795 OPS and 1 HR in 10 games on
the road. Some fans are clamoring for Aguilar’s promotion as a shot in the arm
for a struggling Indians offense, but I still think he’ll struggle against
big-league breaking balls.

Right-handed reliever Shawn Armstrong had a rocky 2013 season, dealing with an arm injury
that limited him to 37 IP (4.14 ERA) between AA Akron and the complex leagues.
Armstrong has shown no lingering effects from the arm issue so far in 2014, as
he’s allowed just one earned run in 9 1/3 IP, striking out 14 and walking just
3. Armstrong has been a lights-out reliever when healthy, striking out 142
batters in 116 career IP. He’s a future late-inning arm in the Indians bullpen,
and like his teammate Kyle Crockett, could be there as soon as this season if
the need arises.

Righty Cody
Anderson is the RubberDucks top SP prospect, and has been a little hot and
cold this year. In his three good starts, Anderson has gone a combined 14 IP
while allowing just 2 ER. In his two bad starts, Anderson has been roughed up
for 8 ER in 11 IP. His strikeout rate is lower than you’d like to see, with
just 13 K in 25 IP overall this season. He’s walked 9 and allowed 26 hits, and
as of right now looks more like a future back-end starter than a future #3.

Photo Credit: Al Ciammaichella

Lindor
Watch continues. The Indians top prospect is hitting
.281/.354/.416 with 2 HR, 2 2B, 2 3B and 13 RBI in 23 games with the
RubberDucks. He’s stolen 5 bases in 7 attempts, and continues to play elite
defense at the SS position. Asdrubal Cabrera has been struggling at the plate
and in the field, and some fans have been clamoring for the Indians to replace
him with Lindor. I don’t see that happening anytime soon. It’d be unfair to
Lindor to put him in that role at this stage of his development, as asking a
20-year old prospect with no experience above AA to step in and be the savior
for a major league team simply isn’t realistic. Indians fans have to be patient
with the major league club and with their farmhands, as we’re just one month
into a 162-game season. Lindor has the total package, and could be a very, very
good major league shortstop for a long time. But that time isn’t quite upon us,
not just yet anyway.

Last year’s 1st round draft pick,
outfielder Clint Frazier suffered a
minor hamstring injury in spring training, causing the Indians to slow-roll
their multi-million dollar investment and hold him in extended spring training
for a little while. Frazier only appeared in 13 games for Lake County in April,
hitting .224/.339/.327 with a double, two triples and 3 RBI. He did hit his
first full-season league HR on May 1, a 2-run shot to tie the game in the
bottom of the 8th inning. Frazier is a prodigious talent with elite
bat speed, and it’s only a matter of time before he starts hitting the ball out
of the ballpark with regularity. The Georgia native has never played in NE Ohio
weather conditions before, and I have to think that he’ll start to warm up with
the weather here in May/June.

Catcher Alex
Lavisky has played only sparingly as the backup to Tony Wolters in Akron,
but he’s been hitting the ball when he has been in the lineup. Lavisky has just
22 AB, but he’s hitting .318/.348/.636 with 2 HR and 5 RBI in that limited
action. Lavisky is a big, strong kid who still has the potential to be a solid
catcher both at and behind the plate.

Mudcats left-handed starter Shawn Morimando has been dominant in the early going this season,
posting a 1.88 ERA and a 3-0 record in his 5 Carolina League starts. Morimando
is just 21 years old, and although he’s repeating the Carolina League this year
he’s still age-appropriate for the level. He struggled somewhat with his
command last year, walking 76 hitters in 135 innings. I talked to Morimando in
Frederick last week, and he said that controlling his walks was his main goal
for 2014. That goal is going well so far, as Morimando has walked just 5 in 28
2/3 IP this season. The low walk rate has helped keep his WHIP under 1, and the
former 19th round draft pick is looking like a late-round find for
the Indians.

Although C.C. Lee got the first call to Cleveland
when the big club needed a bullpen arm, I still think that flame throwing
right-hander Austin Adams is the
organization’s top relief prospect. A former shortstop in college, Adams is an
outstanding athlete who touches triple digits with his 80-grade fastball and
flashes a plus slider and curve as well. He hasn’t been as untouchable as usual
so far this year, allowing 7 ER in 11 2/3 IP for the Clippers. But 6 of those 7
ER came in two outings, and he’s given up just 1 ER in the other 9 1/3 innings
of work. You obviously can’t pick and choose which innings to keep and which to
throw out, but I am pretty sure Adams won’t have an ERA over 5 for much longer.
He’s a potential late-inning bullpen arm that is ready for major league action
as soon as the Indians need another reliever.

Another of my personal favorites in the
organization, Captains catcher Eric
Haase started off the season on fire, but slumped in the 2nd
half of April to finish the month with a .217/.341/.507 slash line in 19 games.
As you’d guess from the SLG, Haase does lead the team (and the entire Midwest
League) in HR with 5 to go along with 5 2B. But he also has just 5 singles on
the season, hence the relatively low batting average. Haase has an intriguing
blend of tools on both the offensive and defensive side of the game, but his
hit tool is going to have to improve if he’s going to catch at the major league
level.

Photo Credit: Al Ciammaichella

The Mudcats (and by extension the Indians) got a
tough break, literally, when starting pitcher Dylan Baker went down with a broken fibula. Baker dealt with a
nagging oblique issue in spring training, and when he was on the mound towards
the end of spring he was hit in the leg by a line drive. He felt good enough to
pitch, and threw 6 perfect innings in his Carolina League debut in Frederick. I
was at that start, and Baker was dominant, working in the high-90’s with his
fastball and flashing a plus curveball and slider. Prior to his next start
though, Baker was hopping over the baseline as he always does and snapped his fibula.
Baker is in extended spring training right now rehabbing the injury, and will
probably not pitch again during the 2014 regular season. A really, really tough
break for a talented kid and a guy who was really looking like he’d play a big
role in the Indians farm system this year.

Versatile infielder Jose Ramirez came into 2014 with 7 career HR in 231 minor league
games. He’s already hit 4 in 23 games this season, to go along with an
impressive .319/.365/.484 slash line. Ramirez profiles best as a utility
infielder. He can spot start anywhere on the infield, but his best defensive
position is 2B. That just happens to match up with a hole that the Indians
suddenly have thanks to an injury to Jason Kipnis. The Indians already have a
versatile utility guy in Mike Aviles, but Ramirez can come up to help split
time at 2B as well as pinch run and fill in with the occasional spot start at
3B or SS.

Reaching all the way down to extended spring
training, Indians 2012 3rd round draft pick Kieran Lovegrove was expected
to begin this season with low-A Lake County. But the 19-year old had a bout of
self-described “Ankiel-itis” in spring training this year, losing complete
command of his fastball midway through camp in Goodyear. Lovegrove was able to
throw his changeup and slider for strikes, but couldn’t get his fastball over
the plate no matter what. It was more of a mental problem than physical, as
Lovegrove was healthy and still throwing in the 94-97 MPH range. Lovegrove had
to stick around in Arizona for extended spring training, but has worked through
the issue with his fastball and has appeared in three games in Goodyear without
seeing the problem re-appear. It’s just a matter of time before the 19-year old
gets assigned to a full-season league now that he’s back on track. With a
fastball that sits comfortably in the mid-90’s, a wipeout slider and a solid
changeup, he’s got a chance to be one of the top SP prospects in the
organization.

Captains 1B Nellie
Rodriguez has as much raw power as anyone in the Indians system, despite
not turning 20 until mid-June. Rodriguez is 2nd on the team (and the
Midwest League) with 4 bombs this year, and hit .225/.337/.413 in 24 April
contests. Rodriguez still needs to improve his pitch recognition/selection and
hit tool, but his profile at a corner IF spot is tantalizing for an organization
that’s short on big power guys. He’s struck out 29 times and walked 14 this
season, continuing a trend of a 2/1 K/BB ratio throughout his career. The
Midwest league can be tough on hitters, but the Indians are going to be patient
with the slugging young 1B and are likely to give him a full season in low-A
this year no matter what the end result looks like.

I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention the performance
that Trevor Bauer has turned in this
season, winning 3 of his 4 AAA starts and posting a 1.40 ERA for the Clip Show.
Separate from his very good MLB spot start, Bauer has 28 K in 25 2/3 innings,
and most importantly has walked just 7 hitters. I’ve
written pretty extensively about Bauer already this season,
so I’m not going to rehash it here. Suffice to say I expect that Bauer will be
the one getting the call to replace Carlos Carrasco in the rotation, and
hopefully the mechanical adjustments he’s made will stay consistent and
effective over a larger sample size at the major league level this season.

The other pitcher competing to replace the
ineffective Carrasco had a pretty good month of April himself, as the Little
Cowboy Josh Tomlin went 1-1 for the
Clippers with a 2.77 ERA in 26 IP. Tomlin struck out 18 and walked an
uncharacteristic 9 hitters, but didn’t issue a free pass in 8 innings of work
during his April 25 start against Gwinnett. Tomlin was certainly shaking some
rust off after not pitching at all in 2013, and looks like he’s back to his old
strike-throwing self. I still think Bauer offers more ultimate upside as a
member of the rotation, but Tomlin has the ability to give this team effective
innings in 2014 and beyond as well.

Photo Credit: Al Ciammaichella

Former UCLA Bruin Adam Plutko is doing something in the pros that he really didn’t do
in college; strike out a ton of batters. Plutko was the Indians 11th
round pick in the 2013 draft, and he struck out 81 hitters in 124 innings of
work his final year at UCLA. He’s managed to rack up 31 K in just 22 1/3
innings for Lake County, taking advantage of the over-aggressiveness of low-A
batters with his advanced feel for pitching. Plutko doesn’t have front of the
rotation stuff, but he’s a very intelligent pitcher with excellent command and
mound presence. He’s an intense competitor and is going to be a guy who always
gets the most out of his stuff. He’s going to run into much tougher challenges
on his way up the organizational ladder, and a pitcher with his experience
should really be in high-A sooner rather than later.

Judging solely by ERA, lefty starter Ryan Merritt was the best starting
pitcher in the Carolina League during the month of April. Merritt went 3-0 for
the Mudcats, allowing just a single earned run in 24 1/3 IP. He doesn’t have
dominating stuff, getting it done more with command and control that an
overpowering fastball, but a 0.37 ERA is a 0.37 ERA. Opposing batters hit just
.165 off of him, and he struck out 18 and walked just 6. He put up a 3.42 ERA
for the Captains last year, and is looking like he’s on track for an even
better year in Carolina this season.

After setting the AZL on fire to the tune of a 1.015
OPS in 2012, SS Dorssys Paulino has
struggled in the Midwest League the past two seasons. Paulino hit just
.246/.297/.349 in 120 games for the Captains last year, and went for a
.221/.275/.305 slash line in April of 2014. It’s actually an improvement for
Paulino over last April when he hit just .208/.288/.208 during the first month
of the season for Lake County. Paulino is another player who is much more used
to playing in warm weather, having grown up in the Dominican Republic. The
Midwest League in April cannot be fun for him, and hopefully he can pick up his
production as the weather warms up. Paulino posted a .716 OPS in August of last
season, and especially seeing as he’s repeating the level, I’d expect to see a
similar uptick in production as the season wears on.

I didn’t know a whole lot about 3B Grant Fink before seeing him in Arizona
this year, but came away impressed. He made several athletic defensive plays at
3B, flashed a strong throwing arm and demonstrated a solid approach at the
plate. Fink led the Captains in batting during the month of April, slashing
.280/.379/.378 with a HR, 5 2B and 11 RBI. The Indians 23rd round
pick in the 2013 draft, Fink is an athletic kid that can play a very good 3B or
1B. He’s a little old for the level as a 23-year old in low-A, and is the type
of player that flies under the radar and sneaks up on prospect aficionados two
or three years into his career. Fink is definitely a guy that I’m keeping my
eye on, and it’ll be interesting to see if he can cut down on his strikeout
rate (38 in 24 games) enough to become a legitimate major league prospect.

Imposing 6’6” RHP D.J. Brown opened the 2014 season in the Mudcats bullpen, but moved
into the starting rotation on April 13. He’s made three starts, and has a 2-0
record with a 1.89 ERA in 19 total innings this season. Brown has 13 K and just
2 BB, and the James Madison graduate has been a mainstay in a Mudcats staff
that’s been the best in the Carolina League so far this season (2.78 team ERA).

That’s it for this week, as our whirlwind tour of
the organization is complete (for now). Status for next week’s Lazy Sunday is
currently at doubtful, as I’m flying to The Netherlands today and then Sweden
on Wednesday for a work trip and won’t return until Sunday. Hopefully MLB TV
works on the iPad even when I’m in Europe.