Following the conclusion of an audit into the team’s anti-doping policies and management by the Institute of Sports Sciences at the University of Lausanne (ISSUL), and having obtained material from the Italian authorities involved in the Padova investigation, cycling’s governing body has referred the issue back to its Licence Commission.

Why is Astana in trouble?

The Astana WorldTour team provided two positive anti-doping tests during the 2014 season, for brothers Maxim and Valentin Iglinskiy. Both tested positive for banned blood booster EPO. In addition, three riders from the Astana Continental Team also tested positive last season. Although the WorldTour team denies any links between the two squads, they do share a number of staff and sponsors.

In December, shortly before the initial decision to award the team a WorldTour licence, Italian newspaper La Gazzetta dello Sport reported that it had received photographs showing the squad’s members with banned medic Dr Michele Ferrari at a team training camp in November 2013.

Ferrari was given a lifetime ban from any involvement in professional cycling in 2012 by the United States Anti-Doping Agency for his part in organised doping within the US Postal team of Lance Armstrong.

Having awarded the team a WorldTour licence for 2015 based on the recommendations of its Licence Commission, the UCI commissioned the ISSUL audit into “the team’s internal structures, culture and management systems to understand whether these are adequate to ensure that the highest ethical standards are upheld.”

The same Commission will now be presented with the report from ISSUL and additional material from the Padova investigation. The UCI believes that this additional evidence has revealed “a big difference between the policies and structures that the team presented to the Licence Commission in December and the reality on the ground.”

The UCI also believes the new evidence and information will result in the Commission chosing to rescind Astana’s WorldTour licence.

What if Astana doesn’t have a WorldTour licence?

Is Astana has its WorldTour licence rescinded, then the team will not have automatic entry into the world’s biggest bike races, including the Tour de France, Giro d’Italia, Paris-Roubaix and many others. It is possible it would then have its application forwarded to ride in the second tier, Professional Continental calendar, but this would also have to be approved by the UCI’s Licence Commission. Pro Conti teams can still get into some of the big races by being selected as a wildcard team.

UCI president Brian Cookson told Cycling Weekly in December: “Subjective to what the licence commission might decide, a minimum sanction could be that the team could be reduced to the Pro Continental level and be dependent on wildcards for the WorldTour races. A maximum sanction could be that the team’s licence would be removed all together.”

If the team doesn’t get a Pro Conti licence either… well, it cannot race and it’s in serious trouble. If it does get a WorldTour licence, then there will be serious questions asked of the UCI, the report from the University of Lausanne, and indeed the Licence Commission.

What would happen to Tour de France winner Vincenzo Nibali?

Astana won the 2014 Tour de France with Vincenzo Nibali, and the Italian is contracted with the team for 2015. However, Nibali has a clause in his contract that states if Astana are no longer in the WorldTour or handed a Pro Continental licence then he is free to leave. It is possible he may also take ‘his’ key staff and a couple of support riders with him, depending on their contracts too.

Where would Nibali go?

If Nibali left Astana, then he would be free to join another team. However, there are question marks at this stage of the year whether any teams have the necessary budget or space in their roster to sign and support the reigning Tour de France champion. Most of the big teams already have one or two general classification riders, and simply do not have room for another one.

What about the other riders?

It’s already a market saturated with riders. With Europcar missing out on a WorldTour roster due to financial grounds, Astana’s demotion from the WorldTour could leave just 16 top tier teams.

It’s unlikely that all of Astana’s 30 man roster will have exit clauses written into their contracts and for the rank and file of the Kazakh team this will be a particularly worrying time. Spare a thought too for the team staff such as mechanics, soigneurs bus drivers and press officers.

If Astana is not awarded a WorldTour licence for 2015, it could follow the same path as Katusha and appeal to CAS. However this could be a lengthy and costly process, and this time the UCI appears confident that any decision would stand up to legal scrutiny at CAS.

David Chadderton

Rider denials of any involvement have been an all too regular occurrence in recent years. Sackings, suspensions and lawyers picnics with court cases flying around in all directions. I’m still trying to read through Tom Simpson’s ‘Put me back on my bike’ by Wiliam Fotheringham for the time period when there were no testing or bans. There were no experts to dose riders. They took absolutely anything. It’s so depressing I can only read it it short periods. No wonder that Stan Britain rode Le Tour and described it as, ‘a pile of agony’ around 1960. He was racing against supercharged nitrous oxide-burning engines while he ate bread. Come on cycling, let’s race honestly, but then, I’m not a professional earning millions from my racing prowess.

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