Government wins confidence vote but faces tough tasks ahead

Seven months after the country's inconclusive general elections, the Czech
Republic finally has a legitimate government. Prime Minister Topolanek's
centre right coalition government made up of the Civic Democrats,
Christian Democrats and the Green Party won a vote of confidence in the
lower house on Friday. Of the 198 deputies present it got approval from
100. Its survival was secured by two rebel Social Democrat deputies who
agreed to tolerate the government -by absenting themselves from the
assembly hall - in order to end months of political paralysis.

Photo: CTK
It was an upbeat moment for the three coalition parties and Prime Minister
Mirek Topolanek said that while he did not have reason to cheer, his
centre right cabinet was the best possible solution to the country's drawn
out political crisis. My colleague Dita Asiedu spoke with him shortly after
the vote:

When you won the elections in June, I said 'congratulations' and you told
me not to say that yet - you were quite pessimistic. Can I say that today?

"I think I was very realistic then."

Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek, photo: CTK
Is it really advantageous for you to be in a ruling coalition for four
years considering that opinion polls suggest that you, the Civic
Democrats, would be better off if elections were held today?

"When we will no longer be able to push through our reform programme,
or reform steps, we will try to call early elections to let people decide
what the political situation should be for a second time."

Although there are doubts regarding the viability of this government the
head of the Green Party Martin Bursik said that other alternatives -in
particular a grand coalition between the two strongest parties - would
have been much worse.

Mirek Topolanek and Martin Bursik, photo: CTK"Imagine if we had a grand coalition with a majority, then the
opposition wouldn't be able to do a single thing and that would be much
worse for democracy. So, I think there are positive aspects to this
situation and we are going to work on our proposals as individual
ministers and on the government proposals too so that we can persuade the
Social Democrats that at least part of them vote for the amendments or
laws here in Parliament."

What do you expect will give you the most sleepless nights now as
environment minister?

"My ambition is to get the topic of the protection of the environment
and quality of life much closer to the public. We are still in a society
where the people don't care about harming the environment that they see on
their way to work or to the cottage on the weekends. We should change this
attitude so that the people understand that the quality of the environment
affects them personally."

Jiri Paroubek, photo: CTK
For the Social Democrats the defection two of its deputies was a bad blow.
But after a stormy nine hour debate in the lower house in the course of
which Social Democrat deputies railed about blackmail, fraud and betrayal,
their leader Jiri Paroubek appeared to have become resigned to the party's
new role in Czech politics.

"I think that these two gentlemen formed a new coalition party - a
fourth coalition party - and it is not a problem of the Social Democratic
Party at this moment."

You've said that the Social democrats are not going to be a "zero
tolerance" party; they are willing to discuss some reform plans.
Could you name some of them?

"Cooperation in pension reform, for example."

You've said earlier that many of the new ministers in the government are
quite inexperienced. Could you name a few and tell us what you think their
biggest challenges will be?

"I think that the majority of government ministers have no experience
in management, the industry, and leadership roles. That is not to the
government's advantage and it is a great problem for the Czech
Republic."

Photo: CTK
Can you give us some concrete names?

"We can name the Prime Minister. He has no experience in any kind of
leadership."

The vote of confidence was preceded by some nine hours of heavy discussion
and debate. What was the aim of this?

"I think it is normal. We have seen it in Great Britain, Germany, and
other states in Western Europe. I feel that it was impossible to say 'yes'
to or agree with many articles in the government's policy programme. So,
it was necessary that the Czech public hears the Social Democratic Party's
statements."

Although the Social Democrats have not ruled out some degree of
cooperation, it is clear that the new government will have a hard time
implementing its strong pro-reform policy programme of tax changes, public
spending cuts and health and pension reforms. This especially in view of
the fact that the two rebel left-wing deputies have not pledged
across-the-board-support for the cabinet - but merely enabled its
existence. So what lies ahead for the Czech Republic - and its new
government? That was a question Daniela Lazarova put to political analyst
Jiri Pehe:

"The government that the Czech Republic is getting is a rather
unstable and weak government. It is a government that will be under
pressure from several sides. Certainly it is not liked by President Klaus
who has expressed reservations to it. It is not a government that all
Civic Democrats - the largest party in the new coalition - are happy with
and finally it is a government that will be under strong pressure from the
opposition. It is a government that depends on the votes of two Social
Democrats and they will be very unstable supporters who may decide at any
time to go against this government. So I do not think that this government
can possibly survive for a very long time."

Do you feel that this will, in fact, be another step to early elections?

"I think that this government will survive for several months.
However it will be under very strong pressure any time it tries to discuss
any serious reforms because it does not have enough votes to push such
reforms through. It will certainly be faced with internal problems when it
starts discussing the budget for 2008 and moreover there may be surprises
in store - there may be coalition deputies who may not be happy with this
government. As far as early elections are concerned, I think it will be
very difficult to trigger early elections. This government has been
promising to resign if it is not able to push through serious reforms.
However the mechanism that is described in the Constitution which the
government would like to use - that is to link a vote of confidence to a
reform bill which would trigger early elections if that bill was not
passed within three months - that mechanism depends on the behaviour of
the opposition. If the opposition does not play along then it could be
extremely difficult to trigger early elections. So I am afraid that if
this government collapses, given the deadlock in the lower house of
Parliament it may not be easy to move forward."

Are you saying that the Czech Republic is now facing another long period
of instability?

"I am afraid that the Czech Republic is in for another long period of
instability. The new government will not be able to provide stability -it
will be under constant pressure and also if the government goes then we
may find ourselves in a very similar situation to that which we
experienced in the last seven months."