White voters propelled Trump's win in Florida

Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign appeared to hit all of its goalsfor victory in Florida — huge margins in Orange County and other urban counties, record-breaking Hispanic early voting and solid African American numbers.

But in the end, Donald Trump prevailed, as white voters, especially in the suburbs or rural counties, largely vaulted him to victory in the Sunshine State, experts said Wednesday.

Clinton outpolled Trump by 25 percent in heavily urban Orange, Broward and Miami-Dade. But Trump counteracted that by racking up 20- to 35-point wins in counties such as Pasco, Hernando, Sumter, Lake, Marion and Brevard.

Although the Trump counties had smaller populations, collectively they provided enough votes for Trump's ultimate statewide margin of victory of less than 120,000 votes. In all, Trump won 58 of Florida's 67 counties.

Here are reasons why Trump won Florida:

Demographics

While turnout among Hispanic and African American voters was expected to decide the race for Florida, it was white voters who appeared to put Trump over the top, said University of Florida political science professor Daniel Smith. Exit polling conducted for The Associated Press showed almost two-thirds of white voters in Florida preferred the billionaire Republican.

Karen Pence, Second Lady of the United States, visits the Integrative and Creative Arts Therapy program at the Florida Hospital Cancer Institute, in Orlando, Fla., Wednesday, February 21, 2018, working on an art project with cancer patients Julie Montz and Ann Bosco. (Joe Burbank/Orlando Sentinel)

Karen Pence, Second Lady of the United States, visits the Integrative and Creative Arts Therapy program at the Florida Hospital Cancer Institute, in Orlando, Fla., Wednesday, February 21, 2018, working on an art project with cancer patients Julie Montz and Ann Bosco. (Joe Burbank/Orlando Sentinel)

While Clinton had a slight lead with women, she "underperformed with college-educated white voters, especially among white suburban women," Smith said.

He said it's possible there was a white backlash to the increasing role of minority voters, rooted in "latent sexism and racism," which "stirred up opposition to the Clinton campaign that was piled on top of people's skepticism towards her candidacy that was her own doing."

"She was a flawed candidate," he said.

African Americans lagged behind 2012 and 2008 voting levels elsewhere in the country, but they exceeded their 2012 early voting levels in the state.

But the Associated Press exit polls showed a significant divide between Cuban voters and non-Cuban Hispanics in Florida. Almost three-quarters of non-Cuban Hispanics preferred Clinton.

"If not for the Puerto Rican vote around Orlando, [Trump] would have won by a bigger margin," said Susan MacManus, a political science professor at the University of South Florida, but Trump led with Cuban voters, long a Republican constituency.

Turnout

The Clinton campaign had a vaunted ground game in Florida, with 500 staffers, more than 70 offices,including five in Orange alone, and an explicitly detailed voter database for get-out-the-vote efforts.

But the campaign didn't spend enough time in counties such as Volusia and Brevard, said Doug Head, former Orange County Democratic chair.

"They hired the usual raft of unknown young people moving into town to run things, and it didn't work," Head said. "It's been going on in Democratic politics since 2004. A cadre of young people, ever younger and less informed, moves into town and takes over — and kicks everyone who understands the community to the curb, listens to polls and takes orders from on high."

President Obama made a last-minute visit toheavily Hispanic Kissimmee, "but this year, if you looked at the enthusiasm gap [among African Americans], he probably should have appeared in west Orlando," Head said. "And when Hillary Clinton did appear in west Orlando … she didn't talk about the community or its voters; she gave a policy wonk speech."

The Trump ground operation, which for a large part of the year seemed nonexistent, was helped by state and county Republican Party operations, MacManus said, largely run by people with local connections.

"And time and time again, there was the enthusiasm gap," MacManus said. "You could tell from the [Trumprally] crowds that the enthusiasm was stronger, and people made up their mind for him earlier than for her, and they stuck with him."

Leigh Velez, 58, of Ocala said until Trump ran for president, she was an independent who "had no interest in politics at all." When Trump announced his White House bid in 2015, she watched on TV, not expecting to be inspired.

"I actually watched him to laugh at him because, up to that point, I just thought he was an idiot, basically," she said.

By the time Trump was done speaking, he had won Velez's vote. "He just spoke to me," she said.

Living in a Democrat-leaning area, Velez said she was afraid to put a Trump sticker on her car or wear her Trump shirt around the neighborhood, but she made small donations whenever she could.

"I was surprised I was doing it," she said.

Wade Senti, 29, of Melbourne didn't attend Trump's raucous rallies, but said he was impressed by the candidate's temperament in more intimate settings and his position on international trade and business acumen.

"I think he has an ability to manage situations," Senti said. "I never felt personally that he was going to start a nuclear war or do anything insane because he's going to have people around him."

There also was a final contribution to Trump's win — third-party votes and those who skipped voting for president entirely in Florida.

Trump's victory margin was far exceeded by the almost 300,000 who voted for a third party, including more than 200,000 for Libertarian Gary Johnson. Another 161,000 voters made no choice for president — leaving that space blank.