640
FXUS64 KFWD 150837
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
337 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017
.DISCUSSION...
Rain chances don`t completely leave the forecast this week with
most of the rain chances along and north of Interstate 20, but the
heat later in the week will make it feel more like the August we
are accustomed to.
A complex of storms in NW Texas continues to make steady progress
east and southeast with aid from a low level jet around 30 kts.
On its current track, this complex would likely move into our
western counties before daybreak. Some gusty winds and brief heavy
rain would be the main hazards. The low level jet will continue
to veer southwest and weaken after daybreak, and we expect the
complex will dissipate by mid morning. Ahead of the complex, some
weak showers and maybe an isolatedthunderstorm may occur as
isentropic lift and warm air advection occur with the low level
jet. However, our chances for rain won`t completely be done for
the day for more than one reason. One, this complex may leave an
outflow boundary in the region that could be a focus for
additional showers and storms later today. Two, diurnally driven
convection may occur as a disturbance currently over the TX
Panhandle moves into the Central Plains. With the upper levelridge centered to our southeast and ample moisture still in place
across the region, most model guidance indicates isolated activity
across the northern half of the region and will keep low PoPs in
that area this afternoon. Temperatures today are likely to remain
near normal values across most of the region (in the mid to upper
90s), but will remain slightly cooler in our northeast counties
that have been inundated with rain over the past few days.
This evening and tonight, our upper levelflow pattern will shift
to southwest winds aloft as an upper leveltrough crosses the
Rockies. Disturbances embedded within this flow are expected to
aid in the development of an MCS across western portions of the
state. Overnight, this complex is projected to move northeast and
east, aided by a 30-40 ktlow level jet, bringing rain to our
western counties before daybreak. Severe weather is not expected
but gusty winds and heavy rain will again be possible. Once again
this complex will likely dissipate over northwestern portions of
the CWA, but may bring rain to areas as far east as I-35/35W. Low
rain chances will remain across roughly the northern half of the
region during the day on Wednesday for very similar reasons as
today.
On Wednesday night, as the upper leveltrough moves across the
Plains, another complex of storms will likely form to our north
along a southward moving front. This front isn`t expected to move
into North Texas, but the complex may and have increased PoPs
north of Interstate 20. A moisture-laden low level jet of 30-40
kts will likely help move the MCS south, but the southern extent
of its track is still challenging and will likely be based on
mesoscale properties of the outflow. Best guess at this time is
this complex will be weakening as it moves into North Texas early
Thursday morning. Low rain chances continue Thursday, and then
another complex of storms may make a run at the region Thursday
night/Friday morning, from the northwest, as another disturbance
moves through the Plains.
Starting Thursday, the upper levelridge will build back west over
the region. Even with the continued rain chances this week, the
heat will make a significant return, and a Heat Advisory may be
needed for parts of the region for several days this week. A
handful of scattered locations may see heat index values of 105 to
106 today, but heat indices will increase starting Wednesday in
our southeast zones where southerly winds will continue to
transport moisture rich air. As the upper levelridge builds back
in and temperatures rise into the upper 90s and around 100
degrees, heat index values of 105 to 110 are possible over much of
the eastern half of the region. Across our western zones, better
afternoon dewpoint mixing is expected, and we will monitor each
day how far east the dewpoints will mix under the influence of the
ridge.
JLDunn
&&
.AVIATION... /Issued 1153 PM CDT Mon Aug 14 2017/
The thunderstorms over the Texas Panhandle don`t look quite as
good as the complex looked last night. With a weaker low level
jet than we had last night, don`t expect this activity to move
through North Texas Tuesday morning. The High Resolution Rapid
Refresh model does indicate that some isolated warm advection
showers may develop toward daybreak near and west of the
Metroplex, but confidence is too low to include this in the TAFs
at this time. Expect mostly VFR conditions through 09z Wednesday
at the Metroplex TAF sites but we may see some MVFR ceilings with
a stronger low level jet by 11z Wednesday.
There may be a few hours of MVFR ceilings at Waco toward sunrise
Tuesday as indicated by the TEMPO BKN015 between 11z and 15z.
South winds at 6 to 9 knots tonight will increase to 12 to 15
knots Tuesday morning.
58
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 96 78 96 79 95 / 20 10 20 20 20
Waco 98 79 99 79 99 / 10 10 10 10 10
Paris 89 73 91 73 90 / 20 10 20 40 30
Denton 95 77 96 77 94 / 30 20 20 20 20
McKinney 93 77 94 77 93 / 20 10 20 20 30
Dallas 96 78 96 79 95 / 20 10 20 20 20
Terrell 94 78 95 77 95 / 20 10 20 10 20
Corsicana 95 78 97 78 97 / 10 10 10 10 10
Temple 98 77 99 78 99 / 10 10 10 10 10
Mineral Wells 95 76 95 76 95 / 50 20 20 20 20
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
82/90