Honey I shrunk the vote

Where will the next federal election, due late next year, be decided? Will it be in Queensland, or western Sydney, or perhaps Victoria?

When people formulate the equation like that it is never clear what they mean. Presumably it’s not that whoever wins a majority in that region will win the country. Labor rarely wins a Queensland vote majority (the last three were in 2007, 1990 and 1961) and the Liberals never win western Sydney.

Elections are decided everywhere, across the country. The side that can scrape together 76 or more seats out of 150 will form government.

The “decided in [insert place]” descriptions seem to assume two things: that the overall result will be “close”; and the rest of the country will remain roughly status quo. Those things are extremely unlikely.

If, say, the Coalition wins 53 47 two-party-preferred next time, that won’t simply see all Labor seats with margins 3 per cent or less change hands. The pendulum gives an approximate net number; it doesn’t name the seats.

The 2010 result was 50-50, but a 50-50 in 2013 would be unlikely to produce another minority government. Possible results would range from a comfortable Coalition win to a comfortable Labor one, with a small chance of hung parliament.

Currently federal Labor’s relative bright spot is Victoria. Julia Gillard is so lucky her former boss John Brumby took his government to a narrow defeat there two years ago.

South Australia was friendly but seems to be turning as the state government wears out its welcome.

All the other states are good for the Coalition. (Tasmania a dark horse, but the word from Newspoll is that it is showing a big swing to the Liberals, and internal polling such as that mentioned by commenter “DB” here from time to time suggests the same.)

Notwithstanding last week’s Newspoll, the general opinion poll situation seems to hover around 53 47 in the Coalition’s favour. That would be a 3 per cent national swing from the last election. Uniform net swing would see ten seats go to the Coalition from Labor.

If you take that 3 per cent to the Victorian portion of the federal pendulum you get three seats moving from Labor to the Coalition. In NSW it would mean five.

But of course the swing won’t be uniform. The last Newspoll quarterly, July to September this year, showed percentage swings to the Coalition in this order, largest to smallest: NSW (5.5), South Australia (5.2), Victoria (3.3), Queensland (2.9) and Western Australia (1.6).

(These numbers come from subtracting figures rounded to the nearest integer from numbers rounded to one decimal place. So the “actual” swings are those numbers plus or minus 0.5 per cent.)

Plot NSW’s 5.5 per cent against the pendulum and you get 10 seats going to the Coalition.

In yesterday’s Sydney Morning Herald, Phillip Coorey had leaked internal Labor polling which apparently indicates a loss of just that number of seats in NSW, “predominantly in western Sydney”.

Parramatta, Barton, Reid, Werriwa, Fowler, Banks and Greenway would, according to one Labor drama queen, be “gone by 10 past six on election night”.

I don’t have confidence that either party conducts polls to such precision. They more likely survey a clutch of seats collectively, rolling over several nights, with sample size of several hundred, and extrapolate the results. They pick a number; they embellish.

And of course they leak for certain reasons.

Some “leaked” polling even seems to just be plucked from a recent Newspoll or Nielsen. (I’m not suggesting Coorey’s was.)

NSW, containing a little under a third of the country’s electorates, remains relatively good for the Coalition. (I keep saying I expect that not to be the case at the next election but the polls remain stubborn; we’ll just have to wait and see.)

We hear again and again that things are particularly bad for the government in Sydney’s west, so it’s probably true.

But there really is nothing magical about western Sydney. The Electoral Act doesn’t bestow those electorates special status; they count for one each, just like all the rest.

God won’t strike the ALP down if it forms government without winning Lindsay.

But of course if the ALP lost 10 seats in NSW it would not win the election. Such a result would be part of a landslide Coalition win across the country.

(Labor lost 13 NSW seats in 1996, with 3–5, depending on how you classify the area, in Sydney’s west.)

“Western Sydney” is a large area, containing depending on your definition around 15 seats, most of them Labor-held. Those electorates are not homogeneous and the biggest divide is between the middle-income, “white” traditional swinging parts on the outskirts and the migrant-heavy low-income, “safe Labor” areas further towards Sydney’s CBD.

The Labor-held Sydney electorate with the lowest migrant population is the famous Lindsay, around Penrith, with according to the 2011 Census some 81.9 per cent of households speaking only English. At the other extreme is Fowler, containing Cabramatta, whose corresponding figure is just 27.7 per cent.

Lumping these seats together is obviously problematic. In many ways their interests conflict.

Recall Gillard’s anti-immigration message at the last election—just about congestion and overburdened infrastructure, wink wink—aimed almost exclusively at Lindsay voters (and people like them).

Fowler was the NSW seat that swung to the Coalition most in 2010, a huge 13.8 per cent. It still has an 8.8 per cent margin, but sits in that history-making “10-past-six club”; in fact it is the safest seat in that group.

If the government’s leadership has a whiff of pre-Whitlam, monocultural Labor about it, it’s because it follows the market-research Lindsay script more conscientiously than any predecessor. Gillard and Wayne Swan have a clear idea of a particular demographic and they spend every waking hour trying to appeal to it.

A template increasingly at odds with modern Australia but they can’t leave it alone.

It’s a recipe for a shrinking vote.

Comments short and on-topic please.

Thursday afternoon update: that’s it for comments thanks!

Your Comments

The issue with Western Sydney is that these people are on large houses with large mortgages, which are affecting by standard of living pressures (Carbon tax) they are on large income with no carbon compensation to fund those house. These family have been pushed toward the liberals by the ALP, add that to the fact that the Liberals have been increasing their ethnic votes means that the ALP are in big trouble in a lot of these Western Sydney seats.

The ALP starts the next election behind as Lynn and New England will more then likely go back to the Coalition. any losses in NSW and Tasmania will need to be made up for elsewhere and it is hard to see the ALP winning sufficient seats in Victoria, WA and Qld to offset the likely losses

dovifWed 21 Nov 12 (11:54am)

I also note that you think NSW will not be bad for the ALP at the next election. But the stench of the last ALP government is still very strong (and reinforced by the bad decision of Carr entering federal parliament)

The Obeid/MacDonald/Tripoli ICAA enquaries and joining the Thompson, Neal misdemenour to make NSW one of the worst state for the ALP at the next election

AnnieWed 21 Nov 12 (12:16pm)

Greater Western Sydney is no longer fibre cottages, dusty streets, full of blue color workers, that has long gone. Many are now self employed, Mcmansions dominate the skyline, the shopping is excellent due to the many immigrants who came here for a better life, two cars are the norm, and the west is also known for being the best payers using cash instead of credit cards. They have high hopes for their children and many are sent to the private schools coming up like mushrooms, all over the west. Will they still vote Labor? Probably many will not, but there are a large amount of people on the dole in the west and they will probably stick with Labor its highly unlikely they will risk” work for the dole” coming back,. but I doubt if there are enough of them to keep Labor in the job. This is also Alan Jones country, the following is huge in these areas, and if Labor thinks they can lead them around by the nose, I suggest they think again. I think Labor will lose the west, this time around anyway, the future, who knows.

ChezWed 21 Nov 12 (12:17pm)

Used to live in Western Sydney so agree with large houses, large mortgages. If JG and Wayne can’t see how these people are hurting and that expensive outlays are not going to help them , then they deserve their reward ,come election time? They cannot afford to backflip more, as they’ve done on so many “schemes” already and been accused of lying, at any cost, etc. They’ve backed themselves into a corner, not very wise, ever,ever,ever.

Steve DuneraWed 21 Nov 12 (12:32pm)

It’s a pity that table misses out Tas. DB points out the Libs expect to pick up a seat or two there. One or two in SA also makes it even harder.

What makes it so hard for the ALP is that they have to pick up seats. If you give Windsor and Oakeshott’s seats to Libs then the ALP effectively start behind.

That’s why the betting odds are where they are.

ChezWed 21 Nov 12 (12:38pm)

Modern Australia demands equality for its workers and business
so productivity, it demands answers, honest and transparent, of all reasonable questions. Austere measures as seen as reasonable as taxes? will be taken in their stride. Modern Australia is now a world aware nation with many contributing nations our history, and ever developing in relationships and innovative science and education. These last need not blow the budget, trust Australians to come up with innovations.

Rob on Park in Adelaide TownWed 21 Nov 12 (12:39pm)

Julia Gillard and Wayne Swan could (and should) save their breath and shoe leather. Their greatest possible contribution to the Party - and the country - would be to fall on their swords and do everything they possibly can to persuade Labor politicians to join them in accepting the will and clear message of actual and potential ALP voters: in a word. Rudd!

IanWed 21 Nov 12 (12:41pm)

As is apparent from many of my posts here I’m no psephologist but those that are often refer to “bellwether seats”. The only one of these special seats I can recall is Eden-Monaro ( I hope that’s right). But if the thrust of your piece is correct then the use of the term “bellwether seat” seems misplaced

AnnaWed 21 Nov 12 (12:50pm)

Just because the 2011 Census says that 80.9 % have English as their spoken language at home in the seat of Lindsay, does not necessarily mean that they are Australian born.
My husband and I came to Australia, as teenagers with our respective families, during the 1950s from a non English speaking country.

In the street where I live there are another 3 couples from different backgrounds who have been in this country just as long and only speak English at home. Our children have in the main married Australians hence English has become our first language. I think you will find that the seat of Lindsay houses a lot of elderly migrants who have integrated extremely well and consider themselves Australian.

If I was David Bradbury I would be a worried man!

McFurryWed 21 Nov 12 (12:56pm)

Mumble,

Im perpetually amused by the overstatement of the importance of the individual leaders satisfaction ratings. There are several issues at play but primarily:
1) Parties form government, not party leaders
2) The question itself is key - it (Newspoll) asks “Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way X is doing his/her job as X?”.

I could be filthy or over the moon with the way X or Y is doing their current job but it may not sway my voting intention one iota. E.g. a large swathe of Coalition supporters may despise the way TA is doing his job as LOTO and therefore his sat ratings will be through the floor but the Coalition itsely may still be popular because the punter is not being asked about the job for which the leader aspires to.

I suppose the point is - job sat and voting intention may be almost entirely disconnected. Coalition supporters may love the way JG does her job if they think it is poorly and likely to assist the Coalition and vice versa (think Rudd/Turnbull).

MattgnikWed 21 Nov 12 (12:57pm)

It pains me to agree, but your reading of South Australia is probably correct. I dont get why but thats bias for you.
I wonder if the ALP could pick up seats in Queeensland? Campbell doing his best to help and the electorate seems to have been come to terms with the Rudd removal. But, may be my bias again.
My suspicion is that people will vote Abbott if the meandering economy doesn’t improve. If it does, then maybe a few less seats fall.

Peter BrentWed 21 Nov 12 (01:00pm)

Because the Coalition did so well in Queensland last time, if for some reason Labor is competitive next year they may make ground in Queensland.

JKWed 21 Nov 12 (01:01pm)

The keys to the next federal election are females and so-called minorities. To support this opinion, take a closer look at the drivers of the recent US election, and we do follow the US.

AnnieWed 21 Nov 12 (01:06pm)

Four seats for almost sure go to the Libs in NSW. New England, Lyne, Dobel, and more than likely Robertson. The damage by the Obeid inquiry will also hurt, if only by association. It is really hard to see Vic, SA , ACT, and TAS doing any favours for Abbott, but the NT,WA and QLD are almost certain to. A very interesting and probably traumatic year ahead..

SimonTigeyWed 21 Nov 12 (01:24pm)

NSW Labor have some serious problems at the moment regarding corruption and Barry O’Farrell is polling quite well, I actually think NSW will be adisaster for Labor and they may well lose more seats than you think.

Two very important NSW seats you didn’t mention in your analysis is Lyne and New England. I don’t know the current polling but most expect these to fall to the Nationals.

Am I correct in assuming that Peter?

Peter BrentWed 21 Nov 12 (01:28pm)

Correct. It would take a big turnaround for those indies to keep their seats.

class WAR!Wed 21 Nov 12 (01:26pm)

I’m actually wondering if Eden-Monaro is going to break a 40 year tradition this (next) time. Would not surprise me if it did.

Richard YoungWed 21 Nov 12 (01:33pm)

Wow, JK. The Hispanic vote will help Labor? The minorities in Australia are a small percentage of the vote, and, apart from one or two seats, are less concentrated.

CameronWed 21 Nov 12 (01:40pm)

PB a few people here have been commenting on some of the seats held by the independents. I was wondering what your view is. Do Oakshott & Windsor necessarily lose to the coalition? What then about Wilkie & Bandt - is there a chance those seats drift back to the ALP? I assume Katter stands again and wins and that the nominal independent seats of Thompson, Slipper and the WA National revert to the major parties in which case given the Thompson saga could be 3 seats to the coalition.

Peter BrentWed 21 Nov 12 (01:49pm)

If Labor somehow wins the election, then perhaps Windsor and (less likely) Oakeshott will survive. Their fortunes are to an extent tied to the government’s. But that’s not likely. I’m on record that Bandt is likely to retain his seat, even if Libs preference Labor, but that was before it became evident that the overall Greens vote is in decline. I give him and Wilkie 50-50 chance. Crook will presumably retain O’Connor and Fisher will go to the LNP (Brough). Dobell’s fate is like the government’s overall: will probably go to Lib but might stay Labor.

Marv87Wed 21 Nov 12 (01:46pm)

Half of the reason Labor are having so many troubles is because they seem to have picked up a narrative typically (more recently) owned by the Coalition. You’re right in some comments you’ve made on previous blogs of yours that JG and Swan appear to be trying to make themselves out to be “John Howard-lite”. While doing so they abandon the left hence a squeeze in the middle between The Greens who for some claim a moral high road, and the Liberals who are happy to sit where they feel most natural on the centre-right.

In essence, I feel if Labor pursued this course with their economic record like Hawke and Keating they might do quite well, since even though some may not nessasarily support them most will rate the Coalition as “better economic manager”. Instead we have a left of centre Carbon tax, and right of centre social policies.

Hardly surprising that not as many people can identify with the ALP. Though I digress, times and opinions in our broader society are always changing.

MarkWed 21 Nov 12 (01:49pm)

“ JK
Wed 21 Nov 12 (01:01pm)

The keys to the next federal election are females and so-called minorities. To support this opinion, take a closer look at the drivers of the recent US election, and we do follow the US. “

No.

The US is optional voting.

While appealing to division in society will be a card to be played by both sides those 2 identity groups have to vote here anyway. You don’t have to get them to come in the first place. Big difference.

The dynamic doesn’t quite work the same.

dovifWed 21 Nov 12 (01:53pm)

JK
If you need us to explain to you the difference between Australia (ALP) and US (democrat) handling of illegal immigration policy… lets just say that the US has a poliicy that works, while Australia had a policy that worked

dovifWed 21 Nov 12 (01:57pm)

Peter

I have to disagree

If the Labor wins in a Ruddslide, Windsor will still lose his seat by double digits, Torbay is very popular in the area, and New England is one of the the safest National seats in Australia (upper house votes)

Janey has MovedWed 21 Nov 12 (01:58pm)

Numbers, schmumbers…

I still reckon that in the seats that supposedly count (on known knowns), it’ll be a choice between a $19,000 (or thereabouts) tax-free threshold and the old one. I tip the new one will out, particularly for the return-to-the-workforce women and low-income households.

Abbott’s small-target strategy is actually quite big.

Julie GWed 21 Nov 12 (02:05pm)

I’m not sure if the southern states are experiencing the same thing, but one issue you haven’t factored in is the effect of a double dip recession. QLD has a poor employment rate which is only getting worse. I’m not sure how Wayne’s the worlds greatest treasurer act is going to play out when people are struggling to pay the rent. The election may be due late next year - but what happens if the economy starts taking a nose dive? Do you go early before it worsens?

WINEDIAMONDWed 21 Nov 12 (02:40pm)

Prof
It is hard not to repeat what i put in the previous days. Labor seems to think that it can expect a repeat of the state election voting patterns. Talk about catastrophizing ,& panic. They couldn’t do that badly.
Essentially i now agree with you!!!. Perhaps there is only one direction the polls can head ??. The only way seems to be up !!!

madimpulseWed 21 Nov 12 (02:47pm)

So another election is coming around where we have to put up with ads that need not have any scinter of truth in them! I wish either or both parties would bring in corporate standards of reliability in advertising and behaviour !

Peter Brent

Peter Brent started Mumble in 2001; the old site can be found at http://mumble.com.au. He mainly goes on about the numbers in electoral behaviour and voters' motivations that drive them. In 2009 he finished a PhD in political science which dealt with electoral administration, a topic he also sometimes goes on about. You can follow him on Twitter at @mumbletwits.