Pimentel column: Latino birth statistics deliver mixed message

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January 16, 2013
: Updated: January 16, 2013 11:44am

If the prospect that Latinos will be the majority soon makes you fear for the Republic — whether that's how you still think of Texas or the real sea-to-shining sea version — recent news of declining birth rates among Latinos must have seemed a refreshing tonic.

But if you've been eagerly anticipating the shift, the news might seem a bitter brew.

Relax. On both counts.

Parts of the country have been majority Latino for a while — including San Antonio. And, while breakfast tacos are something of a staple, we still speak hamburger hereabouts and want our fire, police departments and schools to work and our roads paved. Always will.

The report told of a lower U.S. birth rate generally, “the lowest ever recorded.” This is something to be concerned about, but please note that this would be rock bottom were it not for the Latino birth rate.

In other words, that which is feared in some quarters is actually the only thing standing between you and even more rapid Social Security insolvency.

This decline in Latino birth rates, the report explained, is spurred by lower birth rates among foreign-born women — a significant portion of whom are from Mexico and elsewhere in Latin America.

But if you've read this news of declining birth rates and had your hopes for more and better representation dashed, here's what else the report says:

“The projections indicate that immigrants arriving since 2005 and their descendants will account for fully 82 percent of U.S. population growth by 2050.”

And it's still true that U.S.-born Latinas have higher birth rates than other groups.

So, combine the U.S.-born and Latina immigrant births and we get 80 births per 1,000, outpacing other groups despite the declines.

As much as I'd like to buy into that whole Latin lover mystique, the reason for this relative abundance of Latino newborns is really demography boilerplate.

Among Latinos, there are simply larger shares of women of childbearing ages.

And in Texas this will be true for the foreseeable future. In 2010, Latinos represented 48.3 percent of all Texans under the age of 18. Combine that with black and Asian populations and we're up to 63.5 percent. It's 33.8 percent for non-Hispanic whites.

Translated: Unless birth rates shoot up astronomically for whites in Texas, a majority of the state's newborns will continue to be babies of color. Despite the dips in Latino births currently, the projections are that Texas, already majority-minority, will be majority Latino no later than 2050 and perhaps earlier, depending on different immigration scenarios.

This relatively higher birth rate has fed another notion I've heard often. You know, Latinos don't have the self-discipline to quit having babies they can't afford.

Hmm. Can you guess the frontrunner theory given for the dip? Right. The economic slump hit Latinos awfully hard. Decisions made pragmatically, in other words.

So, the lower birth rate is not about assimilation per se. After all, Mexico and much of Latin America have also been experiencing declining birth rates.

It turns out that Latinos can plan their lives as well as anyone, circumstances, opportunities and economics allowing.

For the moment, however, math and biology collude. More women of childbearing ages simply equals more babies.