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Wednesday, January 23, 2019

From Oumuamua to Wormholes: Curiosities of space

The Handmaid's Tale, Putin-led putsch hasn't won yet! We're still an amazing, scientific civilization on the verge of Star Trek levels of wisdom and expansion. Of course that frightens them, so let's start with some BIG time...

What will likely happen in a few billion years, when our Milky Way galaxy merges with the neighboring Andromeda galaxy? Both galaxies hostsupermassive black holesat their center, which will eventually smash together and merge into one larger black hole. A team analyzed 96 galaxies with X-Ray luminous cores observed with the Keck telescope and 385 galaxies from the Hubble archive. Their results suggest that more than 17 percent of these galaxies host a pair of black holes at their center, which are locked in the late stages of spiraling ever closer together before merging into a single, ultra-massive black hole. When they do merge... um... look out.

A pair of stars about 8000 light years from Earth are both Wolf-Rayets... precursors to supernovae... but also with so much angular momentum that the system is the first known candidate in the Milky Way to produce a dangerous gamma-ray burst, among the most energetic events in the universe, when it explodes and dies. Look at an amazing image of the spiraling dust cloud.

"... a paper that reported the first traversable wormhole that doesn’t require the insertion of exotic material to stay open. Instead, according to Ping Gao and Daniel Jafferis of Harvard University and Aron Wall of Stanford University, the repulsive negative energy in the wormhole’s throat can be generated from the outside by a special quantum connection between the pair of black holes that form the wormhole’s two mouths.

"When the black holes are connected in the right way, something tossed into one will shimmy along the wormhole and, following certain events in the outside universe, exit the second. Remarkably, Gao, Jafferis and Wall noticed that their scenario is mathematically equivalent to a process called quantum teleportation, which is key to quantum cryptography and can be demonstrated in laboratory experiments."

John Preskill, a black hole and quantum gravity expert at Caltech, says the new traversable wormhole comes as a surprise, with implications for the black hole information paradox and black hole interiors. “What I really like,” he said, “is that an observer can enter the black hole and then escape to tell about what she saw.” This suggests that black hole interiors really exist, he explained, and that what goes in must come out.

It's way too early for us sci fi guys to shout "I told you so!" And these traversable wormholes still (probably) don't violate time or causality. Still, the explanatory journalism here is almost as amazing as the theory Natalie Wolchover describes so well.

== ‘Oumuamua… oh, my! ==

Abraham Loeb, is is chair of the astronomy department at Harvard University, and hence falls into a special category of scientists — those who are so widely respected and institutionally safe that they can choose: either become a staid, establishment defender-of-standard-paradigms, or else use that invulnerability to poke at ideas at the fringe, that might harm the career of someone less august. Alas that the public doesn’t know how prevalent these Invulnerable Paradigm Pokers (IPPs) in the latter category can be. I’ve known iconoclasts like Richard Feynman and Murray Gell Mann, and worked for one of the top Nobel-Laureate crackpots, Hannes Alfven. Hence I am unsurprised to see Loeb publishing a series of papers about our recent interstellar visitor ‘Oumuamua, suggesting “Six Strange Facts about our First (known) Interstellar Guest.”

For those wondering where ‘Oumuamua came from, the answer is weird. It appears to have been almost motionless, relative to the Local Standard of Rest (LSR) or average movement of stars in our vicinity. “

The relative motion between `Oumuamua and the Sun reflects the motion of the Sun relative to the LSR. "`Oumuamua is like a buoy sitting at rest on the surface of the ocean, with the Solar System running into it like a fast ship. Could there be an array of buoys that serves as a network of relay stations or road posts, defining the average Galactic frame of reference in interstellar space?” Loeb speculated. (Wow. A kindred spirit, this IPP. The only only clade who feel as free to speculate is we science fiction authors. And what a slander foxites and other spew, when they portray scientists as "conformists" clinging to standard theories! Our species has never produced more competitive people.)

Of course Loeb mentions the strange trait of elongation, that led some to suggest the tumbling guest has a cigar-like length/width ratio from 5 to 10. That did catch the public imagination. Though Loeb and others now suggest a pancake like shape, or possibly even a flat plane, like a sail.

Infrared readings from ‘Oumuamua’s close passage by the sun suggest it reflected away most of the heat that poured over it, suggesting a rather shiny surface.

Much has been made of the measured acceleration or course deviation the object endured, on its way out of our inner solar system. The standard hypothesis is that ‘Oumuamua experienced outgassing thrust, which we have observed altering the trajectories of many comets. But can this happen without formation of a comet’s traditional coma and tails? Back when I did my doctoral work on cometary outgassing, I showed how an elderly comet might be coated by insulating layers that alter the amount and timing of sublimation of underlying volatiles which could explain the delay in outgassing. Loeb asserts that the observed trajectory change could only have happened if “at least a tenth of its mass evaporated. “If so, wow. But I’d like to see that assertion examined. This part has me really skeptical.

Some of the anomalous traits that Loeb ascribes to ‘Oumuamua might have resulted from the surface of normal cometary dust having been baked and polymerized by interstellar UV and cosmic radiation across billions of years. Such a polymerized surface might open like a FLAP and allow a gas jet that's both directional and almost free of dust

Loeb goes on to give some support to the notion that this was an interstellar light sail. Indeed, my novel EXISTENCE proposes a galaxy almost chock-full of such things, either active or defunct!

There are some other “unusual traits,” but they are statistical appraisals of likelihood of orbital characteristics, and hence poor grist for a sensationalist (?) site and audience like this one. In any event, this paper is brand new, circulating only in manuscript. So you will have to wait a bit to get your hands on it, yourselves. Alas?

== Are there geological traces of stupid? ==

There have long been arguments over whether we can be sure there were never previous civilizations on Earth. I’ve long dismissed the idea for many reasons.

First -- unless our descendants scrape away the dross and dump it into subduction trenches (as I depict in Brightness Reef), our cities will be glaring beacons – rich, layered ore deposits – that stand out billions (yes, billions) of years from now. Of course a previous sophont race – or failed colony - might have had only a few cities and our core samples just happen to have missed them.

While ignoring that clue, this article by Adam Frank sifts others, like the veneer of plastic we’re spreading everywhere, which ought to be traceable for many tens of millions of years, or anomalous Nitrogen ratios from our sudden spike in fertilizer use. While we’ve wisely avoided spewing much radioactive fallout across the countryside, some small traces are detectable e.g. in Jimmy Carter’s urine (another story) and an earlier tech society might have been more foolish.

The article focuses in on the chief effect we’re having, causing this era to be inarguably the Anthropocene… our effects upon both species extinctions and the climate. “If a civilization uses fossil fuels, the climate change they trigger can lead to a large decrease in ocean oxygen levels.” We’re already seeing ocean acidification. (Use those two words on your mad uncles and any member of the Denialist Cult. Dare them to go to the beach to measure it with you; their cult needs to be aggressively confronted, for your children’s sake.) If global warming causes a runaway “blurp” of methane hydrates from the seabed and tundra, then we could be in real trouble. BIG trouble…

…but not as much trouble as every Republican who helped perpetrate this disaster. Their names, face, addresses are all on record, yes even the location of the top lords' Patagonian hideaways. And the “liberal” society that now protects them is the number one thing they seem bent on tearing down.

It's all right. Today's posting was just a sampling of work being done by real geniuses, and not the self-declared "stable" kind. And those who think they can re-establish feudalism without being noticed -- or opposed vigorously -- by folks who know genetic engineering, chemistry, epidemiology, cybernetics, nuclear fission and the rest... those folks are proving which category of delusion they occupy.

I can't get over the fact that we're in communication with a space probe that is 6+ LIGHT HOURS away. We can detect gravitational waves. We can splice DNA (becoming an established branch of engineering with CRISPR). Our grandchildren might not die on Earth. Compare that with the old Monty Python scenes of serfs harvesting muck.

If it was covered in billions of years of accretion + the light elements subliming off that would give it a "skin" - then when it passes the sun it would have to warm enough to melt the interior volatiles and the volatiles would have to get past the skin

That would give it a "jet" like off gassingAnd is that not what we have already observed in some of the comet/asteroid encounter missions and exactly as our host predicted?

The solar sail idea seems silly as it is at minimum far too thick - a solar sail would be thin as - microns thick not mm thick

I'm in two minds as to how good a target Oumuamua would be for a subsequent space probe

Yes, but my doctoral thesis was about accumulating dust layer that gets partially blown of when this happens, creating surges in the dust tail... and no dust was observed near 'Oumuamua, hence the idea that it might have polymerized over many eons and the jet was from a narrow point of release through that coating.

In any event, it's better to keep looking for the next one, ideally inbound, and send a mission past that one.

The ones I've seen lean away strongly from genetic determinism and toward "Try it and found out." Biology has some massively monstrous problems where it is unlikely there is enough time in the universe to calculate what might happen. It's far simpler to observe specific cases and guess at the universals.

That your USAish troubles...

Heh. Yah. They aren't unique to us, but we DO have our own stupid way of doing things at times.

Let's trade your problems with Ukraine?

No thanks. How about we keep sending you some of our people who show you some of how we do things? Keep the parts that you like and seem to work. Improvise off the things that might be close. Toss the rest in the trash.

I know a guy who has been over there a few times. No doubt some Russians thought he represented our government, but I know he did not. He's just an avid NGO type.

I'd be willing to pay more tax money to support funding of New Horizon style fast probes and flash launch contracts so we have some probes to send quickly for possible interstellar visitors. Keep the science simple so we don't have to custom design instruments and then build a few and keep them in a warehouse for the day when an interesting visitor drops by. 8)

I do not understand that thing?Does manifestations of laws of physics, which are manifestation of objective reality itself, NEED someone's approval???(that concerning previous post brawl about Evolution, too)

>> Mike Will said...I can't get over the fact... Compare that with the old Monty Python scenes of serfs harvesting muck.

Not all of us. %(Here is 8 billions of *US*... and hardly most of them can share your admiration. :(

\\...that stand out billions (yes, billions) of years from now.

Isn't "billion" its american name for 10^9, what we europeans call "milliard" (and our billion it's 10^12).But... but Earth only 4 mil... billions years old.And multicellular life only about 500 millions of it?

\\Of course a previous sophont race – or failed colony

I have strong opinion, that capable of star-ferring civilization... do not need colonies on the surface.Really! Why would one throw themselves AGAIN in the deep of gravity well... when he already have all commodities on the orbit? ;)

\\...veneer of plastic we’re spreading everywhere, which ought to be traceable for many tens of millions of years, or anomalous Nitrogen ratios...

That's easy? How'd we know??? What is normal?

What if, for example, deposits of >natural< oil, gas, coal -- it's exactly that result of that pre-historic civilization? ;)

\\…but not as much trouble as every Republican who helped perpetrate this disaster.

And I only thought there's be not politics... %(

Guys? Dr.Brin pointed out my "unusual grammar". But saddly enough, I already use grammar checks (free ones) and see no problems.Can you, when it's not time consuming, point me on one or two of my grammar quirks.So I'd know what to improve (as it is not so visible from within)

>> Alfred Differ said...//Biology has some massively monstrous problems where it is unlikely there is enough time in the universe to calculate what might happen.

Before computers... calculaions was hard monotonous work. ;)

\\Let's trade your problems with Ukraine?\\No thanks.

Sorry. Of course that was a joke. What is correct way to show it more explicitly?Because... I like jokes. %) And it's better when people understand that you are joking mr.Fe... ehm. %))

>> Alfred Differ said...\\I'd be willing to pay more tax money to support funding of New Horizon style fast probes and flash launch contracts so we have some probes to send quickly for possible interstellar visitors. Keep the science simple so we don't have to custom design instruments and then build a few and keep them in a warehouse for the day when an interesting visitor drops by. 8)

Then. Wouldn't you be interested to give... at least some time/thoughts.To ideas of technologies... which allow to build NUMEROUS such probes.As well as countless other things. On the Earth and in the Space?

I'll start from my routine: "What would you say to someone... who,d hand weaving before you about CHEAPly mass-produced robots: flexible and interconnectable like LEGO which can operate in space or under water but... it need quite an imagination and develop a bunch of techs to bootstrap it."

@porohobot | I thought you might be joking about swapping problems. I was fairly sure even though it is hard to tell with simple written words. It's just that I've read a bit about Ukraine and had to argue against some of my citizens who expected our President to go to war with Russia when they annexed Crimea. My neighbors just THINK they have problems. Your neighbors actually DO have problems.

Calculations are still hideously expensive for a lot of biology problems. We've done some amazing things in recent years, but some problems are likely to be out of reach until after the singularity... and maybe even after that... if that happens at all.

As for cheap, mass produced robots, I'd say "show me it can be done". If you or anyone can do it, they should be able to make themselves as rich as they like... at least in the West they can. Short of that, I'd say the field is littered with paper robots... meaning descriptions of robots on paper that no one ever builds. The reason they don't get built is there is usually a flaw in the business logic and maybe even the technical logic.

I used to work at building start-up companies that intended to fly real hardware in space. I saw lots of lots of paper rockets and paper spacecraft and paper businesses. I saw very few actual rockets and only the occasional business that was ever able to produce paychecks for the employees. As for actual spacecraft... one. Sort of. It was meant for sub-orbital flight.

Pushing ideas forward into production is HARD, HARD work for which successful people deserve to get rich as far as I'm concerned. Most of us fail. Those of us who try to make it on our own ALWAYS fail. Our host's catchy acronym applies. CITOKATE. What a team of people can do is far more than create new ideas and work them out. They can also weed the garden of the imagination. That's at least as important and planting in that garden.

That really was funny, surely! Learning another language, the second-last thing to grasp is rhymes, the final skill is to make jokes. You have made impressive progress in only a couple of months. I do not see anything wrong with your writing, no fatal fault, the small words (pronouns and prepositions) are always the most difficult. When you incorrectly spell a word, it is still easy to understand your intended meaning.

"When the meaning is grasped, the words are forgotten."

On the other hand, what emerges with more clarity are sometimes Old World attitudes, and in the US "old world" is only a compliment to food and drink. All people are worthy of respect, equal respect even though they are never equal in resources, talent and temperament. All people are worthy of respect at birth, but some people squander this birthright by failing to overcome the sexism, racism, and xenophobia of their parents.

>> Blogger Alfred Differ said...\\It's just that I've read a bit about Ukraine and had to argue against some of my citizens who expected our President to go to war with Russia when they annexed Crimea.

Yeap. Of course it's stupid. But, simple people do like simple (and wrong) decision.But still, USA could be more eager in pursuing it's motto "Peace and Democracy, should suit everyone"... or am I wrong with such basic of basiest narrow understanding of USA ideals? %(

\\My neighbors just THINK they have problems. Your neighbors actually DO have problems.

I... tend to agree with our neighbors, that they DO have real problems (like, Climate Change, it's NOP for Ukraine, by obvious resons).While disagree with mine... we are slacking.(even at face of such persistent nudge as war) %((

\\Calculations are still hideously expensive for a lot of biology problems.

That's easy. One just need to make em analogous. ;)

\\As for cheap, mass produced robots, I'd say "show me it can be done".

That is sad truth of this world.People with money have no ideas. (just look at Gates's struggle)People with ideas have no money.

But then... that's why we need to communicate. Try to understand each other.

//there is usually a flaw in the business logic and maybe even the technical logic.

No one today can do ALL needed calculation and due decisions...especially for both business and technical parts.

Today is NOT time of singular inventors.We came past it EVEN in Edison's times.

So... vision that I do propose... need to re-establish notion of "Edison's workshop" (or Skunk Workshop ;)).To combine smart-asses of different kinds. And give em many different tasks.Result of which will be that I said -- unmeasurable power for humans -- to build anything, anywhere.

And of course there need to be board of "guarding angels",so that omnipotent techs would not be subcepted to whims of free market (so easily),and as such to fall in hands of malicious people... (do I need to depict disastrous possibilities here?) to perceive and resolve such moral dilemmas.

\\I used to work at building start-up companies...

That's why your opinion could be so valuable.

//They can also weed the garden of the imagination. That's at least as important and planting in that garden.

You have a seed now. It's for you to decide, what to do with that seed. (shy)

//They can also weed the garden of the imagination. That's at least as important and planting in that garden.

Any garden starts from first seed planted. You have a seed now. It's for you to decide, what to do with that seed. (shy)

>> yana said...\\porohobot thought:

Thank you, yana.

I can count it as tomahawk of war are buried? In between us.

\\All people are worthy of respect, equal respect even though they are never equal in resources, talent and temperament.\\All people are worthy of respect at birth, but some people squander this birthright by failing to overcome the sexism, racism, and xenophobia of their parents.

You can count me on board fer all that stuff.If my sincerity are not enough. Or not perceived as genuine.You can safely be assured that it's all because of selfish reasons. ;) For sure.

>> yana said...//All people are worthy of respect, equal respect even though they are never equal in resources, talent and temperament.

I'll try to pose this clarification. So we could understand each other better. In future. I hope.

There is different types of respect.

No... not that...

That thing you stated... it's not respect. IMHO. It's _benevolence_.Something that cannot be asked of.(guess, why?)But something that can be given FREELY and without *any*(or I do not know about such) burden to giving part.

Respect. It's contrary. Something special.Something that MUST be earned. Because it counts _only_if_ (rightfully) earned.(it must be that way... but not always occur, which is sad)And something that could be... NO, must be demanded.Except from some scum of society.(like vatniks) Respect from that side, could make you only dirtier (if you are not saint, needed opt-out).

Of course. There is space for discussions and futher clarifications.You welcomed.

I listed several of the stunning scientific advances that We have recently made. porohobot replied, "Not all of us".

Quite correct. However, it's more of 'us' than you might think. Google citizen science accomplishments for a first bread crumb. Even an impoverished child sitting in the dust sees the night sky with human eyes. And most scientists, at least the ones I've known, care deeply about those eyes.

I do not understand that thing?Does manifestations of laws of physics, which are manifestation of objective reality itself, NEED someone's approval???

It's not a matter of approval. I thought the solution I was talking about was so obvious that it only had to be pointed out to be understood. Therefore, I was afraid I misunderstood the question, and was giving a non-sequitur as an answer.

I followed the links and I am puzzled by something. Ten years ago Loeb and friends did a paper about anticipated density of extra-solar planetisimals. Now a planetisimal has been tracked through the Solar System and he is saying our original numbers were wrong. "Oumuamua implies that the population of interstellar objects is far greater than expected." He is the expert, but he seems to be extrapolating greatly from a single data point. "Each star in the Milky Way needs to eject 10^15 such objects during its lifetime to account for a population as large as ‘Oumuamua implies." Since this is the first visitor detected, we don't know if the last one was 20 years or 20 thousand years ago. I just don't see how a single data point can change their conclusions from 10 years ago. Can some one explain it to me? Or have there been other visitors and I missed the news?

As an aside, that info about the LSR just blows my mind! Science, yay!

Does anyone know where that picture of Oumuamua comes from? Everybody is using the same picture, with no attribution. I've even had some one tell me it had to be of alien origin because "Just look at it!"

Oh Man, I read the article on the "traversable worm holes". You Star Trek fan boys will distort any scientific finding to prop up your interstellar fantasies. This theoretical finding does not allow for faster than light travel even if you could somehow put two black holes in quantum superposition.

@Smurphs re: single data point. Quantifying uncertainty is possible even when normal statistical analysis isn't. Both Frequentist and Bayesian methods have their place.

"The gamma ray astronomer does not want to know how an observation of a gamma-ray burst would compare with thousands of other observations of that burst; the burstis a unique event which can be observed only once, and the astronomer wants to know what confidence should be placed in conclusions drawn from the one data set that actually exists" (p. 83)

“some of my citizens who expected our President to go to war with Russia when they annexed Crimea“

Idiots who ignore the fact that Putin had the biggest “grievance.” That western NGOs (deniability war agents for Clinton & Obama) “stole the Ukraine.” Yes this is an evil meme that ignores the Ukrainian people’s right to self-determination. But we do need to listen to how the enemy rationalizes his evil.

The idea of a bridge-like Wormhole through space is not 'new' as it was first suggested by Einstein in 1935.

And, after watching 'Star Trek', 'Farscape' and Disney's unsurpassed 1979 version of 'The Black Hole', we all thought that the possibility of traversable Wormhole travel was way-cool, but it's pure speculative fiction to declare that this wild theory, assumption, projection and/or scenario equals either "science reporting" or a "cosmically important new physical theory", as it seems much less supportable than Loeb's 'Flapjack' theory of Oumuamua or my very own cheddar-based 'String Cheese' Unified Field theory...

Mmmm, cheddar. Is there anything it cannot do?

It's existence, according to my String Cheese theory, explains the fundamental interactions and mechanics of the universe in a delicious & definitive manner.

As for Yana, I emphasise:

"All people are worthy of respect, equal respect" says Yana, "even though they are never equal in resources, talent and temperament", except (he says) for those deplorable subhumans who squander & forfeit his respect "by failing to overcome" the deplorable influence of "their parents".

We must all learn to forgive our deplorably racist, sexist & subhuman parents if we ever wish to earn our own self-respect, according to Yana's stated moral code.

The folks who wanted conflict were the folks upset at Obama's apparent weakness. They would have had a hard time finding Ukraine on a map before the invasion and annexation. 8)

The guy I know (through a pseudonym) is an NGO type, quite conservative, and would be aghast when people point out that he helped Obama steal Ukraine. Upset too. He would argue that Obama deserves no credit and that his people were simply out there teaching how democracy works with some hand-holding lessons. Think of him as a democracy/liberty missionary.

Anyone who likes a decent conspiracy would wonder if his was a cover story, of course. I don't see how Russian leadership could think otherwise too. However, I'm 99% sure the guy was telling the truth. His story and the supporting personality went way to deep to be a simple cover. He considered himself a GOP partisan and I wish I was still in contact with him to see what he thinks of current events. 8)

Where's the EVIDENCE that supports your position? Oh, that's right. You have no evidence besides theory & speculation because there's no empiric evidence to be had.

And, you have faith, faith in academic credentialism, faith in arcane mathematical syllogism, and faith in the deified personification of your own ideals, like your bourgeois worship of the merchant goddess Aecetia (Equality).

Whether we're talking about traversable Wormholes or my cheddar-based String Cheese Unification theory, one speculative fiction is much like any other when faith is all the proof of fact required.

Best____

The belief in equality is a middle class conceit, one most reflective of the metropolitan merchant economy than of the greater polity.

>> David Brin said...//But we do need to listen to how the enemy rationalizes his evil.

No. You don't.Because it's utter and complete manipulation. Like that bait story Putin veritably fed to Tramp -- about USSR war in Afghanistan "because of need to cease narcotics traficing". What an utter bullshit.When Kim John Un said he will blow you with his bomb -- it's superficial, but still truth. He, and all his nation were raised on that fairy tales with propaganda against "bloody USA".

When Putin talks about his "grievance". It's utter lie and falsehood.(he might even believe it himself, it changes nothing)Because nither him doing in accordance with it no his subordinates, how it be in english "poddanie", do not believe in it.

What is real?I'll tell you what is real. You know, I am listening to their propaganda, by radio.Just yesterday. I admitted some little but subtle change in their "metodichkah"/prop guides.Attention! I'll summarise it's message in few words here:"they all fascists", "European Union it's Reincarnation of Third Reich", "Ukraine independence -- it's revanchism of fascists, of course" therefore "that russians who do fight there in *ukrainian civil war*... they just WANT to turn time back". %)

And that all the way long. Constant work to make deluded shisoprenics from russian people.

And clueless dupes from westerners. By feeding them with complementary to their beliefs stories.

Yah. I suppose so. I usually reserve 'stupid' for things people do, but if you want to go there... I'll do it this time.

1. The merchant economy sorta took over the world... and lifted the majority of humanity out of extreme poverty for the first time in human history.

2. Most of us who mess around with the physics of blackholes do it because it is fun to think about such weird things. If you don't get that, so be it. We don't care.

3. Okay. You are using the word 'faith', so I'll be careful to use the standard, dictionary definition. Primarily faith is identity as measured by what one is 'loyal to.' It's not really possible to be loyal to mathematics of any kind. It's just a language really, though it can be fun to spin the local equivalent of poetry in it. I'm NOT loyal to academic credentialism, but I do use it at times to decide who gets my precious attention. Not often, but occasionally. I AM loyal to Liberty, so you got me there. I think you've mis-identified the merchant goddess, though. The correct one is Prudentia. Yes... I'm loyal to her too. Finally, regarding loyalty to physics theories of one sort or another, I'm not. Can't really do science if one is too loyal to theories. Urania would probably object. 8)

You take this stuff WAY too seriously, though.Where is your sense of joy for the world?

>> Alfred Differ said...//He would argue that Obama deserves no credit and that his people were simply out there teaching how democracy works with some hand-holding lessons.

His influance also near zero.Even less than that notorious "Nuland cookies" so reverberating in vatniks minds, amplified by FSB/KGB propaganda.Because ukrainians have had NO kings and have had their democracy long before some transoceanic teachers.Just read about Zaporogscaya Sech ;)

PS So you are. And nobody here want to discuss REAL prospects for the progress.Ok. I take it. %(

@porohobot | Idealistic Platonism? Ugh. I don't think so. That stuff began to die in the 19th century when they began to mess around with non-Euclidean geometry and was buried in the 20th when they abstracted everything. What exactly is a vector? Anything you want as long as it follows a set of agreed-upon rules. An algebra? There's more than one? Sure. Just define another set of agreed-upon rules. Anything that fits qualifies. Abelian / non-Abelian. No matter.

Plato's ideals didn't survive except in the minds of people who don't think very deep about them. They are a bunch of hooey.

As for locumranch trolling us, I'm sure he does that sometimes. Other times, though, he appears to be seriously upset. I know people who like to troll others. Our Libertarian party has a number of them and they pride themselves in trolling progressives. I know the joy they get from that and I don't see it in locumranch. What he's doing appears to be closer to an attempt to convince himself he's been right all along no matter how many people say he is wrong. It looks more like masochism, but he doesn't seem to get off on it much. When he does I tend to say 'eww' and avoid him, but that's not often.

>> Alfred Differ said...\\@porohobot | Idealistic Platonism? Ugh. I don't think so. That stuff began to die in the 19th...

Hah. I would believe your words.If it were not my personal ACTUAL experience.With a mathematician, professor of logic.Which made very basic of basiest error... just to suit his belief in "there not only dull matter... there also some non-material things...". %)

\\century when they began to mess around with non-Euclidean geometry and was buried in the 20th when they abstracted everything.

And what mean "abstraction"? If not some idealistic "non-existent" thingy? ;)

\\What exactly is a vector?

Perfect ideal thing in some ethereal realm parallel to ours, no? %)

\\Plato's ideals didn't survive except in the minds of people who don't think very deep about them. They are a bunch of hooey.

Yeap!

\\As for locumranch trolling us, I'm sure he does that sometimes.

All the time.

I showed it in previous post comments -- he doesn't care about consistency of his own LOGIC. (that's about kindergarten and Osventsim as "organizations")

That leaves (as fer me) only two possibilities:he is dumb as log, to the level he himself does not recognise that inconsistency,but its don't look true, as his manner of writing is quite refined,orhere know about it... but doesn't care. So. That can be only if he's trolling.

\\ Other times, though, he appears to be seriously upset.

Yeap... showing "gravance". Same as Put in. %P

\\I know the joy they get from that and I don't see it in locumranch.

Who told you that trolling could be only out of joy??? %\

\\What he's doing appears to be closer to an attempt to convince himself he's been right all along no matter how many people say he is wrong.

Yeap. Those exact reason vatniki have of heavy use... for their "trolling".Out of desperation. Yep.

\\It looks more like masochism, but he doesn't seem to get off on it much.

@Pohorobot, David's comment about needing to listen to your enemy's rationalisations doesn't mean you have to *believe* them. They provide an insight into the enemy's thought processes and value system, much like what the rhetorical tactic of projection reveals about the person using it.

----

Since this is supposedly a scientific posting, two items have come to my attention that are worth noting:

1. Is Alzheimer's caused by gum disease? This study seems to suggest it. Even if confirmed, it's unlikely to be the only cause.

'Faith' often means 'agency'. We hominids love us some agency. We see it everywhere. We anthropomorphize everything from beetles and gems to volcanoes and weather. We interpret the world through imitation, metaphor, symbols, and language. It's quite sweet actually.

However, the universe just is. It doesn't subscribe to any ideology or speak any language. Daisies and snails know nothing of Fibonacci or Pi. 99% of the animals that ever lived died from dehydration or were eaten alive. Damn that's cold. It's unimaginably vast and ancient. I use the word 'unimaginably' in the J.B.S Haldane sense. Computers are great tools because they can scale time, space, and complexity to our level of understanding. They're like telescopes for the mind.

I don't 'disbelieve' in mathematics. In fact, I love mathematics. It's an old and very dear friend. That's the problem with it, and me, and us.

THAT'S My Point -- no, it's not.The whole reason of it -- is to create "fog of war", and delude and entrap enemies...as well as own people... and any gullible idiot who would believe in it.

That was whole point of USSR propaganda. From it's very beginning.It's power of thought control. "One who controls how people think -- have immense power."Polished by KGB.And now extensively used by FSB.

\\much like what the rhetorical tactic of projection reveals about the person using it.

You think Put in do not know ins and outs of such stuff?And cannot extend his manipulation to THAT level?Especially... when he fully in the control of a discourse... and can bend narrative in any direction he desires.

YOU just know nothing about totalitarian regimes. And their GRIP on people's minds.You are clueless... John Snow.

>> Mike Will said...\\However, the universe just is. It doesn't subscribe to any ideology or speak any language.

It speaks. But it's Language of Physics... not mathematics. ;)There are subtle differences... though physics using math extensively.

For all other... I subscribe under it too. (thumb up)

And... to my progressist stuff. ;)

To make swarms of robots to be able to build anything, anywhere.

Its easy to start:make design and engineering, modeling tools for such technology -- because current CAD\CAE systems are mostly for rigid bodies and far simpler structures,

make at least prototype of such robots, I think about fish-like robot, because it relatively simple (only one coordinate) -- to test different approaches (as in Edison Workshop),

make special 3D printers -- which can use flexible material and have multi-material nuzzles, etc.

The extended Trump Shutdown (actually, the Limbaugh/Coulter/Ingraham Shutdown, since they pushed Trump into it) is exposing a characteristic of the Republican Party that I hope voters will remember in two years. To them, a shutdown is a bargaining chip. They don't want to end the shutdown unless they get concessions in return. Smirkin' Ted Cruz can say with a straight face that Democrats are keeping the government shut down even though Democrats have passed a bill to do the opposite thing--because he means that Democrats won't pass a bill that Trump will agree to. In my view, that means Trump is the one keeping the shutdown going, but maybe that's just me. :(

Their tactics really are isomorphic with hostage-taking. And hostage-takers generally don't themselves care what happens to the hostages. Law enforcement generally does not advise giving in to the hostage-takers' demands.

I just hope voters remember this in 2020. This should be the issue that the Democratic Party runs on--that the Republicans are the party of government shutdowns. This is not something both sides do. When Newt Gingrich took over the House back in 1995, he specifically removed the "Gephart Rule" which essentially presumed that a budget passed by Congress implicitly raised the debt ceiling enough to cover that very budget--i.e. that passing a budget was the same thing as approving the borrowing that that budget included. Gingrich reduced that rule for the express purpose of using the need to fund government as a bargaining chip.

So when people vote for Republicans in congress or the presidency, they're not just voting for a position on taxes or abortion or immigration. They're voting for the tactic of hostage-taking. It's who they are and what they do.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/25/us/politics/shutdown-deal-reached-trump.htmlWASHINGTON — President Trump agreed Friday to reopen the federal government for three weeks while negotiations proceeded over how to secure the nation’s southwestern border, backing down after a monthlong standoff failed to force Democrats to give him billions of dollars for his long-promised wall.

The decision paved the way for Congress to quickly pass spending bills that Mr. Trump will sign to restore normal operations at a series of federal agencies until Feb. 15 and begin paying again the 800,000 federal workers who have been furloughed or forced to work for free for 35 days.

He promised to ensure that workers will be compensated for the last five weeks. “I will make sure that all employees receive their back pay very quickly or as soon as possible,” he said. “It will happen fast.”

porohobot you confuse two things: propaganda and the leadership's own rationalizations. Sometimes they overlap. But Putin has been remarkably open and clear about his rationalizations.

Putin and his clade were raised on contempt for all western concepts of accountability, rule of law, democracy or self-determination. Hence he does not perceive the deposing of Yanukovich in any of those terms. As a Russian, he leans toward paranoia. As a lenin-raised KGB agent, he can see things in no other way. Hence he ascribes the Ukrainian democracy movement entirely to agitprop by the activity of Western NGOs, not to the Ukrainian people making a sovereign and intelligent choice.

Those western NGOs were - of course - agencies of a conspiratorial war waged against Russian interests by Western powers, especially Clinton and Obama and Clinton, against whom he personally and openly swore revenge. He claims we used "deniability warfare" first, via those NGOs and that his deniable aggressions in Georgia, Crimea and the Donbas -- and Brexit and helping Donald Trump -- are all justified retaliation.

It is VERY important to read Putin's rationalizations and understand them. It seems he is being quite open and is sincerely angry. Crazy-batshit evil? Yes, and if his oligarchic-mafia cabal wins, then humanity may go extinct, but will certainly lose the stars.

In FT, Hari Seldon studied Chaos worlds intensely. This was more than just Sun Tzu - like knowing your enemy. It was ongoing and earnest introspection. Being on the right side of history is kind of important.

It's become quite apparent that the term 'Equality' has become an euphemism for bourgeois middle class values.

Alfred points out that the Merchant Economy (aka 'Mercantilism'), with its conflictual emphasis on acquiring wealth in order to secure national security & personal enrichment via external controls, "sorta took over the world", "lifted the majority of humanity out of extreme poverty for the first time in human history" and CREATED THE MIDDLE CLASS.

Mercantilism is a 'zero sum' nationalist philosophy which perceived the business economy as being analogous to war. This was supplanted by Liberalism, a so-called 'positive sum' economic philosophy championed by Adam Smith, that assumed that business (international & domestic) could be LESS competitive, more harmonious & more 'equal' if the markets were allowed to self-regulate via internal controls.

The implementation of Liberalism's internal controls -- its so-called 'Invisible Hand' -- was problematic & actually created even MORE economic inequality because its lack of external regulatory controls encouraged selfish behaviours which would be later be rationalised away as 'cheating'. It also led to middle class collapse & the exploitation of labour.

In response to Liberalism's many shortcomings, Marxism (aka 'the economic philosophy that fetishises equality') then arose, leading directly to international economic collapse, WW2 and a resurgence of FDR New Deal style Mercantilism** which recreated a prosperous middle class, even though many falsely attribute middle class resurgence to Liberalism's failed international policies.

Liberalism offered us false economic promise, but we failed to learn this tragic lesson, and even now the international community spirals into avoidable conflict & collapse.

Our once vibrant middle class has been all but decimated; Marx's fetish for equality has once again reared its ugly head; and the EU & the USA teeter on the edge of schism as we recapitulate the preconditions for WW2.

A Vote for Trump is a vote for Mercantilism in 2020 !!

Best_____

**There is little or NO liberalism in FDR's New Deal, just a textbook definition of Mercantilism wherein a nation institutes strict government controls in order to increase its wealth by selling more to other nations than it buys from other nations.

Quick skim. Not a single yowled assertion correlates with fact in locum's screech. How does he do it? Every one (tho I admit I only skimmed) is diametrically opposite to historical or even word-definition fact. Wow.

My girlfriend Nancy Pelosi showed why she's a formidable leader. By denying Trump the State of the Union, she turned a hostage situation into a prisoner exchange. "Oh, now we have something you want? Maybe we can talk now."

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/25/us/politics/trump-shutdown-deal.htmlRepublican senators rose one by one to voice concerns about the effect on federal workers and the lack of forward momentum in an impasse that felt unbearable. They swore they would never stand by another government shutdown.

“We’ve already lost,” lamented Senator Johnny Isakson, Republican of Georgia, according to people familiar with the remarks. “It’s a matter of the extent we want to keep losing.”

Yes... but... why didn't he just use the SOTU as an excuse for a rally? He must be in heavy withdrawal now, with no rallies since November. Ivanka must have intervened. My guess is she's a full time caregiver, now.

What's occurring to me is to wonder whether the FISA Court has seen probably cause to order a warrant to tap the POTUS especially during the coming Kim meeting. CAN the FISA court do that? Who would have imagined such a situation?

You have a messy tangle of assertions that demonstrate a combination of ignorance in the subject area and a lack of curiosity to do anything about it.

The merchant economy of which I spoke isn't mercantilism, though it certainly did appear in that form first among the Dutch and the early decades when the English went Dutch. However, the typical English merchant is rather ungovernable when it comes to keeping to the real requirements of mercantilism and liberalism emerged over a century as a result. I'm referring to the old-school liberalism, though. Not the version progressives like to call liberalism. Old-school liberals are feisty with respect to most forms of concentrated power and object to mercantilists as much as Kings and Priests.

[If you dig down deep and avoid the religious pieces of American conservatism, you'll find they are conserving mostly liberal principles. There reason for doing so sounds weird to a classical liberal, but ideas have pedigrees. If one has the courage and curiosity to follow them, they reveal some interesting truths about Americans.

Mercantilism does make comebacks in each generation, but it doesn't really work. It's generally better than Feudalism, but that's not saying much. Self-performed appendectomies are better than feudalism. We come back to mercantilism when we shrink our horizon of inclusion and fail to see the benefit of open trade with Them. They are obviously out to do us harm, so trade with them is seen as unclean at best and a source of infection at worst. It's dumb, though, and loses in any competition with actual liberal cultures.

I think you are right about Trump thinking like a mercantilist, though. He has said he is a tariff man. They impose an error (that they are preserving the wealth of a nation) that is actually a negative sum game onto a positive sum market. If you are lucky, the result is merely zero-sum, but it can easily be negative as horizons of inclusion shrink to match social expectations. Adam Smith demonstrated what contributes to the wealth of a nation as part of an argument against English mercantilists, so it's an old form of ignorance that keeps growing like a weed in an otherwise pretty garden.

Mercantilism as practiced by the Dutch DID manage to lift their most impoverished, but more importantly it lifted their common man by doubling his real income. That's nothing to sneeze at when the income prior to doubling was only just enough to stash some wealth that might be enough to avoid starvation when the crops failed once or twice a generation. It's nothing, though, compared to what the English and Scotsmen unleashed a century later when the income of THEIR common man doubled again. Mercantilism can't do that as it replaces the efficient raping of the markets by Kings and Priests by less efficient raping by guild owners. Liberalism CAN release our potential because it's mostly about freeing us from coercion of any kind. The common man of the world today has a real income at least 16x the common man of 500 years ago because of liberalism and the enlightenment that resulted.

"I like to envision (fantasy!) that five or six GOP Senators threatened to bolt"

Not fantasy! On Thurs, both re-open bills failed in the Senate, but the Dem bill peeled off 6 Republicheat Senators. Trying it again next week would have peeled off 12, and nineteen overcomes a veto. And Congress over-riding a veto is the top A-1 summit of all fears to the orange guy.

Would have made him look impotent (snert) to the outside world, but more importantly, it would have made him feel impotent on the inside, in his 2 or 3 seconds of weekly self-reflection. Naturally, he'd have blamed it on a polar vortex. "No really, this never happened to me before, it's really cold, that's all it is, it's cold, aren't you cold?"

William McKinley in 1896, nearly verbatim quote. McK added: "... standing on a tariff platform." He won on that stance (twice), but by 1901 had done a complete about-face, declaring that not only do tariffs hurt both sides equally, but they will always draw retaliation. Further, McKinley had come to realize that amicable economic relations had a more important effect: generating goodwill towards America, which exaggerates the nation's political influence abroad.

Nothing's clear, everything is muddy, and no thought nor action happens aloof and intact. It may be that the remnants of trusts behind McKinley's throne arm-twisted his turnaround. Or it may have been a real foxhole conversion. Who knows, but the result is the same: the last time we tried the orange guy's method, it didn't work then either. It is the doom of men...

>> David Brin said...//Which means understanding him is even more important than ever.

There was such "scientists" on your side -- kremlinologists. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KremlinologyThat tried to predict or at least explain, political decisions of Kremlin... by order in which Politburo stood on the Mausoleum. %)))

Do you mean SUCH understanding? ;)

\\porohobot you confuse two things: propaganda and the leadership's own rationalizations.

So... Hitler really was fond of jews? And only out of necessity and because of foul propaganda which made him kill them?

\\Sometimes they overlap. But Putin has been remarkably open and clear about his rationalizations.

You need to know your trivia. ;-)In RFia... it's a handbook by which they learned ways of capitalism. %PAs well as many other...

\\Putin and his clade were raised on contempt for all western concepts of accountability, rule of law, democracy or self-determination. Hence he does not perceive the deposing of Yanukovich in any of those terms.

Wrong.I can say he sincerely SEES himself not as despot, but as democrat... within *controlled* democracy, of course. %P

It's called "cargo cult". https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cargo_cultThey reproduced "democracy" VERY WELL (as they think).They have THE SAME AS YOU: Senate, Commons, Senators... even Human Rights Ombudsman.

And now... they stare at YOU with pure misunderstanding -- WHY YOU, do not want to recognize them??? %)))

\\As a Russian, he leans toward paranoia. As a lenin-raised KGB agent, he can see things in no other way. Hence he ascribes the Ukrainian democracy movement entirely to agitprop by the activity of Western NGOs, not to the Ukrainian people making a sovereign and intelligent choice.

And you not? See what Alfred did write higher.And it's just Putin's words. And... he DO know moods of people in Ukraine very well.Isn't Crimea and Donbass are stark proofs of it?

\\against whom he personally and openly swore revenge. He claims we used "deniability warfare" first, via those NGOs and that his deniable aggressions in Georgia, Crimea and the Donbas...

Yes. "Business as usual". USA with its CIA -- creates riots and overthrows governments... ok, so we'll do it too, says Putin.

But you do not recognize him as equal... as someone to whom it is allowed to "create riots and overthrow governments".

Well, says Purin... it's just because THEY ARE hypocrites and russian haters...But it's NO PROB, because their countries are democracies -- _same_as_ours_, so, its people will see and choose THE RIGHT PEOPLE next time.And we'll help them to choose right, wink. In "best traditions" of american democracy (as they see it, twisted, with creating riots and covert using of NGOs, troll bot farms, etc).

It's POV of shysoprenic.And you need to be at least for a bit shysoprenic yourselfs, to understand it. %/

I do have this trait -- because I was leaving in USSR. From which all that shysoprenia originates.You -- not. %)So, you are trying to look for a reason THERE where it cannot be.

\\It is VERY important to read Putin's rationalizations and understand them. It seems he is being quite open and is sincerely angry. Crazy-batshit evil?

Nop... it's a play. The same as in Kim Jon Un case.Concocted solely for gullible and easily impressed. For westerners.

You do know when Tramp is doing something quirky, that it's a play. How do you know?It's the same for us and Put_in. It's easier for post-soviets to read out -- is he sincere or not.It's psyhology, isn't it? ;)

PS And I'd be much more glad... to see your responce on my sci, tech and progress missives. :(

"""One year into the Trump presidency, Democrats can't shut down the booming Trump economy so they shut down the government instead. This is the behavior of obstructionist losers, not legislators. Do your job Democrats: fund our military and reopen our government #SchumerShutdown

— Sarah Sanders (@PressSec) January 20, 2018"""

So. My memory do not fail me yet. :-)

"""Odd thing about this impending shutdown is it's happening over an issue (DACA codification) that the president and leaders of both parties claim to support. That wasn't the case in 2013 when the issue (ACA defunding) split along party lines.

>> locumranch said...\\It's become quite apparent that the term 'Equality' has become an euphemism for bourgeois middle class values.

And what's problem with it?I doubt that you'd like real *equality* achived in USSR for example. Equality in poverty.Or one's achived in Cambodga by Crimson Khmers. Equality in death.Isn't it?

\\and CREATED THE MIDDLE CLASS.

No. Middle class it's result of development of techs. ;)Medieval have had it's own "middle class" -- craftsman.

\\It also led to middle class collapse & the exploitation of labour.

Do read and quote the Marx already. %PSo your missive be at least consise. %)))

\\A Vote for Trump is a vote for Mercantilism in 2020 !!

Bleh. %P You will not sell that elephant with that. %PTry to be simple. And more creative. And try it on more simple, more gullible audience first.Like, on kinders in kindergarten. ;) Or it'll need nursing garden? Dunno. %)))

>> David Brin said...\\Quick skim. Not a single yowled assertion correlates with fact in locum's screech.

As for me. In that exact piece (of shit %)). He showed his intention quite clear.He trying himself on the stage of(pre election) propaganda.

And propaganda do not need to be based on facts. More than that. It's better when it based solely on emoutions. Trmp proved it yet one time and more than effective.

I'm sure you've had some jabs about such an obscure area of research. When I was a kid, I watched the Apollo 11 landing with my beloved LEM model in hand and confidently planned for a life in space. It didn't come to pass. Space exploration and space science was largely in dormancy between Apollo 17 and SpaceX. We paid a HUGE price for that. We could have been on Titan by now.

She said a good day ain't got no rain.She said a bad day's when I lie in bed and think of things that might have been.

At least today you can point to Silicon Carbide. FWIW, I don't think we're going to "lose the stars". It's just going to take more time and 'aspera' than I'd hoped. We apes are a fickle critter.

>> Mike Will said...//It didn't come to pass. Space exploration and space science was largely in dormancy between Apollo 17 and SpaceX. We paid a HUGE price for that. We could have been on Titan by now.

And while I going out of patience proposing SURE DEAL way of how to achieve it.

"""On the 70th anniversary of the final raise of the Nazi blockade of the city of Leningrad, now St. Petersburg.

In the Süddeutsche Zeitung article, the Kremlin was criticized for making a massive tragedy a matter of pride. Russians recreated military events on a street scale. They showed destroyed houses and many thematic expositions, and a "blockade tram" passed through the streets.

“More than a million were killed. The blockade was genocide and remains a sore spot for Russia! The emphasis should be on the memory of the victims, not on national pride,” the article responded."""

That is "pride of the russins" today. Only time can say if and when it'll turn into "you'll answer for your colonializm sins"... in pair with China?

PS Third Reich was beginning from the same envy and revanchism. Do you remember it?

As for wormholes, here is a method that will get you both FTL and time travel.

The idea involves creating wormholes via the Casmir effect and using them as time machines. For a simple explanation of how these would work see this episode of the 19902 science series "Future Fantastic" The part about converting a Casimir induced wormhole into a time machine starts at 19:19:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C3yyr7f_epk

OK, so let's create the pair of charge plates that create the wormhole via the Casimir effect (as described by Dr. Michao Kaku in the video). Instead of being built on Earth, the first set of plates is placed in orbit around the Sun at 99.99999999999.....% of the sped of light. If this occurs on January 1, 3001 it will essentially always be that date at this end of the wormhole. A time traveler could enter the other end of the wormhole and emerge on New Year's day of the year 3001 - but not earlier since the wormhole did not exist before this date.

Meanwhile, the second set of charged plates with the other end of the wormhole gets carried by a spaceship to another star system at nearly the speed of light so that the crew is subject to time dilation, and they experience a journey of a thousand years as lasting only a few months. Once they enter the alien star system in the year 4001, they set up the other end of the wormhole and explore/colonize the planets of this system. Shortly thereafter, the crew can return via the wormhole back to Earth in the year 3001.

The crew experienced a journey of only a few months. Also, the people back home on Earth watched them leave on January 1st and return via the wormhole a few moments later from a star system a thousand light years away.

Once in place, the wormhole becomes a permanent subway to the stars. Millions of these wormholes would create a subway system across the galaxy like that used by the mysterious monolith aliens in "2001" through which astronaut Bowman traveled to meet his destiny.

Like the roads built by the Roman Empire, this subway system of wormholes could knit together a vast galactic empire/federation with essentially instant interstellar travel.

P.S. The only down size is the energy requirements for such a system, roughly equivalent to that of an exploding star.

Sorry, I have to admit that I don't always make it through every word of your long posts. Not just you in particular, but yours are among the longest.

This recent shutdown happened because the president wouldn't sign the bills authorizing the budget for several areas of government, so they had no money to run on.

Which begs the question, why wouldn't he sign the bills that his (Republican) Senate had already passed in December? Because several screeching right-wing radio hosts (Ann Coulter, Rush Limbaugh, and "Dr." Laura Ingraham" threatened to rile up his own voters against him if he didn't insist that the budget contain billions of dollars for their beloved racist monument, a wall along the border with Mexico.

It will be interesting to see now to see what happens with the army of deplorable voters that Trump weilds like a club over the cowed Republican legislators. Are they really Trump's brownshirts, or Coulter's and Limbaugh's? What will they be like if Trump and the radio hosts become adversaries?

Alfred Differ:If you dig down deep and avoid the religious pieces of American conservatism, you'll find they are conserving mostly liberal principles. There reason for doing so sounds weird to a classical liberal, but ideas have pedigrees. If one has the courage and curiosity to follow them, they reveal some interesting truths about Americans.

My old conservative buddy on the "Cerebus" list used to argue that it was a strength of conservatism that it absorbed into itself the liberal ideas that stand a test of time. In his view, conservatives were correct to oppose things like Social Security and integration when they were untested ideas, and also correct to claim them as conservative ideas now that they've proven themselves. I tried (unsuccessfully) to convince him that that attitude necessitated conservatism recognizing that it depends upon liberalism for all of its good ideas, and that accepting those that it rejected previously involves apologizing to liberalism for having stood athwart them shouting "No!"

BTW, for those of you other than Tacitus2 and raito who don't live in the Great Lakes region, we're about to have the coldest weather Chicago has seen in 25 years, with close to a foot of snow followed by a few days that won't even break zero (Fahrenheit) during the day.

According to weatherman Tom Skilling, this is the only area on the planet whose temperatures are currently below their normals for this time of year.

Hunkering down for that sort of weather causes my mind to go off in weird directions. Like, what I'd really like to see on Saturday Night Live tonight is that they'd get Stormy Daniels as a surprise guest to dress up as Nancy Pelosi in a dominatrix outfit, totally spanking Alec Baldwin as Donald Trump.

My take on the the FDR Economic Miracle being Mercantilism would be complete & utter bullshit except for one tinsy weensy detail that the history & economic textbooks like to omit:

World War 2 destroyed the industrial capacity of Europe & Japan, making the US Economy a net exporter & the sole mercantilist beneficiary of international trade for a 20 year period.

And, yes, I'm arguing that Trump is a would-be mercantilist, too.

Poborohot's valid point about the Middle class being "the result of development of techs" also omits that the middle class artisans & craftsman (individuals who are now referred to as Luddites) were destroyed by the wholesale industrialisation of the 19th Century, leading to social unrest, unionisation & even Marxism.

\\Poborohot's valid point about the Middle class being "the result of development of techs" also omits that the middle class artisans & craftsman (individuals who are now referred to as Luddites) were destroyed by the wholesale industrialisation of the 19th Century, leading to social unrest, unionisation & even Marxism.

Go read Marx so then you can quote his teachings and look sma... at least literare and erudit.

Because that you are spouting from yourself -- akin to idiocy.

What have you said? It would be better WITHOUT industrialisation? %)))Without mass production?Without medicine?Without computers? %)

I don't think Dr Brin means that the Enlightenment created a middle class, but that it created the conditions in which a significant portion of the population could be middle class.

Radio host Thom Hartmann likes to point out that in the Dickens novel A Christmas Carol, the shopkeeper Ebeneezer Scrooge was of the middle class of his day. But that middle class was tiny compared to the size of the working poor population, which included Scrooge's employee, Bob Cratchit, who had a good full-time job, but could barely keep his family warm and fed.

" FWIW, I don't think we're going to "lose the stars". It's just going to take more time and 'aspera' than I'd hoped. We apes are a fickle critter."

Alas:

1) I see no reason why Feudalism would not be a Top Ten entry for fermi paradox explanations. It sucked in every human society with metals or agriculture, and for reproductive success reasons that were successful and heavily reinforced by that success.

2) Feudalism's logic works no matter whether the sapient race descended from herbivores, omnivores or carnivores.

3) Feudalism always slowed technological advance and actively stifled many. Weapons advanced, but only in certain ways. Likewise, the ability to do space travel would be tightly constrained.

4) hence it is a strong attractor that gets stronger once it digs in. Over time, it may make a species ever more paranoid, reluctant and conservative.Especially, they will take the Big Lie of Feudalism for 6000 years "my kind of people are inherently superior and merit the power we use to prevent bright underlings from challenging it in fair competition," and use tech to make it come true, as in BRAVE NEW WORLD.

Once that happens, a race might indeed "lose the stars" permanently. As I said, it is a leading candidate for the Fermi Paradox.

Mike it's more like sampling several thousand water glasses in an isolated bay that's connected to a vast ocean and asking "Why no bacteria?" and "Why have no fish wandered in?" and "Why no fish bones or shells of any kind on the beach?"

The January 2018 US government shutdown happened because Trump had ordered an end to the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program, and demanded that a Continuing Resolution to fund the government had to include funds for building the wall he fantasized about. Democrats filibustered the CR until Senate Majority Leader McConnell promised they would take up the legislation known as the DREAM Act. (Spoiler - this promise was promptly ignored by Republicans. This is one of the reasons why similar promises were not believed by Democrats this time around.)

Incidentally, Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) had proposed a bill similar to one passed unanimously during a similar standoff in 2013, providing for continuing pay and benefits for all military personnel during the debates; McConnell, however, refused to consider such an idea, seeking to preserve the Trump administration's claim that the Democrats alone were responsible for the entire mess.

The shutdown was resolved in two days, although there were threats of another such shutdown in February. The effects weren't as bad as this one, because for those days most agencies had reserve funds that could be tapped to support personnel.

Dr. Brin, I remember people seriously pondering the uniqueness of the solar system only 25 years ago. Now it's clear that planets are common. The next gen telescopes will be capable of analyzing exoplanet atmospheres. Drake's numbers are getting better all the time. Patience.

Dr Brin:it [feudalism] is a strong attractor that gets stronger once it digs in.

Maybe we just saw the beginnings of an escape, with Nancy Pelosi handing Benedict Donald his balls on a plate.

Seriously, his base (e.g., Ann Coulter) turns on him because he's not mean enough, while the majority is rejecting his meanness altogether. His only hope to get wall funding from Democrats is to pair it with concessions to liberals which make the hard-line Republicans vote against him. These are not just one-off impediments, but more like the reasons why a strong emperor and a strong general were unable to threaten the Foundation in Foundation and Empire--the invisible hand of psychohisotry at work.

I'm not at all sure that the preponderance of solar systems that are entirely unlike our own (I know that we would not detect a solar system like ours) helps the Drake numbers

We seem to keep finding things that were "essential" and unlikely

It appears possible that without Thetis hitting the early earth then we would have entirely too much water - and a deep ocean planet is unlikely to have enough "Life Zones" to allow the evolutionary step to complex life to occur inside a stellar lifetime

Maybe there are lots and lots of planets - but incredibly few like earth

School is likely to be closed for 4 days this week. Only Friday was scheduled. 3 of those days will be for cold weather, as the standard is that a wind chill of -35F or below is ground to close the schools.

is a scientist, futurist and best-selling author. His novels include Earth, Existence, The Postman, and Kiln People, as well as Hugo Award winners Startide Rising and The Uplift War. The Transparent Society won a Freedom of Speech Award of the American Library Assn.