3/27 NBA DFS: Tons of value at point guard

Daily Fantasy Rundown – NBA DFS – March 27th, 2015

Welcome to Friday’s edition of the Daily Fantasy Rundown with “leonem” and “dinkpiece”. Each day throughout the NBA season our daily NBA scouting reports will highlight the best top, value and cheap plays of the day based on the Daily Fantasy Industry’s pricing for salary cap games. Our analysis will help you consistently build winning rosters over the long run.

Point Guard

Value Plays:

Greivis Vasquez (TOR) – With Kyle Lowry ruled out again Vasquez is a phenomenal value play. He’s well underpriced on the major sites (41.5 percent discount on FanDuel, 30 on DraftKings). Even on DraftKings, where he’s more expensive, Vasquez’s .83 DraftKings points per minute puts him on target to hit value (25.6 DraftKings points) in 31 minutes on average. In the last three games Lowry has missed, Vasquez has played 31, 34 and 37 minutes. Simply based on price and opportunity, Vasquez has a really high probability of hitting value. However, the matchup also makes him a great play and gives him quite a bit of profit potential. As we’ve mentioned several times recently, the Lakers are dead last in defensive efficiency against point guards as both Jeremy Lin and Jordan Clarkson are poor individual defenders.

Dennis Schroder (ATL) – With Jeff Teague ruled out, Schroder should see heavy minutes. In the last two games Teague has missed, Schroder has played 38 and 35 minutes. Schroder also saw big increases to his usage and assist rates in the two starts and was already projected for nearly the same Fantasy points per minute in our model as Teague. Schroder averages .90 FanDuel points per minute on the season, which puts him at value on average in 29.5 minutes. Not only do we expect Schroder to exceed that amount of playing time, but we expect a boost to his per minute performance due to both the matchup and increase in assist rate in a starting role.

Goran Dragic (MIA) – Dragic’s status as a value play depends on Dwyane Wade‘s status (depending on which beat reporter you follow he’s either questionable or doubtful). If Wade is out, you can expect to see usage and assist rates in the high 20’s for Dragic, which would be meaningful boosts to his season long numbers in the low 20’s. With the increased responsibility, we’d expect Dragic to average somewhere around a Fantasy point per minute, depending on site scoring. That gives him a projection nearing 40 Fantasy points as he’s consistently seeing big minutes with Miami fighting for one of the last playoff spots. Since returning from a two game absence at the beginning of the month, Dragic hasn’t played less than 34 minutes in eight contests and is averaging 37.4 minutes per game over that span. If Wade is in, Dragic is still usable but moves more towards a secondary value rather than a primary one. Teammate Mario Chalmers (MIA) deserves some consideration if Wade is out as he’d likely see a mid-thirties minutes total. However, his upside still pales in comparison to the starting point guards that are written up.

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