Is China Practicing Missile Strikes Against U.S. Bases in Asia?

Are the United States and China set on a collision course that ends in war? White House advisor Stephen Bannon thinks so. While neither country openly wants war, both sides are preparing for the worst case scenario. War on the Rocks has an intriguing set of satellite images that indicate that preparations on the Chinese side are farther along—and more specific—that anyone previously believed.

The United States maintains an extensive network of bases in the Asia-Pacific region. Much of the network is a holdover from World War II, preserved through the Cold War, and still in place today. Naval bases such as Yokosuka and and Sasebo, and air bases such as Yokota, Kadena, and Osan protect America's allies while projecting American power into the region. Some of America's most advanced military equipment, from F-22 Raptors to B-1 Lancer and B-2 Spirit bombers to a full carrier battle group are deployed in an arc stretching from South Korea to Guam.

China sees those bases as a threat—and it's not necessarily wrong. The great distances between the continental United States and China mean the U.S. military will need those bases to prosecute any war between the two countries. According to WotR, China is actively practicing hitting those bases with long-range ballistic and cruise missiles.

For decades, China's main means of power projection was in the form of ballistic missiles, and large numbers of them. Ballistic missiles—placed under the command of what is now the People's Liberation Army-Rocket Forces—are an inexpensive and efficient way of delivering warheads long distances. They're cheaper than aircraft carriers, or long-range bombers, but can still pack a considerable punch. Modern guidance systems, even those not using GPS, can target with precision. The DF-21D intermediate-range ballistic missile, for example, can hit moving aircraft carriers at sea.

Japan's attack on Pearl Harbor, the preemptive strike that brought the United States into World War 2, was a tactical success but a strategic failure. Although Japan managed to sink several battleships, it failed to destroy the what really mattered—the port facilities, fuel storage depots, and other critical infrastructure that sustained American air and naval power. Ships and planes eventually need fuel and maintenance. Without those facilities, the U.S. Navy could not have sustained the counterattack that led to the Battle of Midway, and might have even been forced to withdraw thousands of miles eastward to the West Coast.

Satellite imagery shows China is preparing to target ships in port, particularly at Yokosuka naval base, and individual hardened aircraft bunkers at Kadena Air Force Base on the island of Okinawa. What's more, China appears to have learned Japan's lesson: it's also practicing targeting electrical substations, above-ground fuel storage depots, and other support facilities. The goal would be to force American forces back to Guam or even Hawaii, isolating America from allies Japan, Australia, and even South Korea.

The attack plan appears comprehensive and well thought-out. The satellite imagery shows that cluster munition strikes have been carried out against simulated Patriot PAC-2 and PAC-3 missile batteries, the primary American defense against Chinese missile strikes. A mobile, land-based air defense missile capable of shooting down aircraft, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles, Patriot is particularly vulnerable to attack by ballistic missiles that dump cluster munitions over a wide area.

This evidence of target practice against American ships and bases isn't unusual. The United States is a powerful potential adversary, and the PLA-RF would be remiss if it didn't have contingency plans to take on U.S. forces. Rather, the imagery should serve as a reminder that the Chinese are maximizing their resources and are prepared to take on the might of the U.S. military if necessary. If it comes to war, the Pentagon should be prepared for a tough fight.

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