The 77 level is trying to hold on the USDJPY. This week has already made a lower low. It tested and held its 0.0% retrace (76.75). It's below all SMA's. The US isn't going to intervene so it's up to the BoJ. Yeah right.

41
comments:

ben22
said...

@Ra,

I also put a lot of importance on larger trendlines

I see the trendlines a little bit different though I think

I think in this case you must use log for $spx to identify the proper trendline because

1. The rally started over 2 years ago, so arithmetic should be set aside when looking at the entire rally, it's taken too long not to use log and

2. It will give you earlier warning of the trendline break than the arithmetic chart

If I draw a trendline from the 2009 lows and create the second touch in summer of 2010 I show in log that trendline broke but it did so with a close below on 5/31

http://i54.tinypic.com/t6pld4.png

a secondary trendline from the summer head and shoulders failure in 2009 through the 2010 correction I show 6 touches and we've got quite a lot of room to work lower before we touch that one

I'm going to guess by the end of the week sentiment will have flipped far enough short term to be considered bullish (as sentiment will be so bearish) very much looking forward to looking through COT at the end of the week as well

note the emotional response to the news that we were just discussing, what are you not supposed to do as an investor? Well, look in the rearview at econ data to determine your positions for starters

but that's what lots of folks are doing with all the "new" data that has come out, which of course, is actually now old news and was known before by people controlling big money

closed FXA puts for some nice change, closed SPXU calls... wanted to clear out the account, see what unfolds next few days. My BAC broker, which just happens to have the same initials as C.V., hasn't advised me to sells these yet.

dark cross bitchez - (since 2010, it's going to be the NEW [get the technical lemmings wrongfooted & charging play]... Succesive occurrences (version 2011 - 2.0; version 2012 - 3.0 [& if needed, a version 3.1 somewhere again, near the elections to guarantee that Barry Teleprompter will have a chance to practice his putting for 4 more years]...

Instead... If anybody is really reading INTO what I'm saying... I'll say it more bluntly here...

This is a contrived situation... contrived doesn't mean 'controlled'... Instead it means that TPTB 'want' a certain outcome & will pull all the strings to make it occur... Possibly many times it will succeed (but ULTIMATELY Mr. market will have its way)...

IMO - all one needs to do is to have that '6th sense' (in getting to understand):

- Who ARE TPTB?- What are their motives?- What are the vulnerabilities to their motives?

If, & once, you have the mental self discipline to understand that these famous TPTB are simply 'humans' (after all)... & that 'human behavior' is clannish... then it is very easy to toss away such labels as 'anti-semitic', or 'homophobic', or whatever the LABEL dU JOUR is that 'aggressive' clannish types use to propagate their homogenization fallacies (as if TRUE homogenization meant that we'd all become homos - which is, NOT EXACTLY what I think they want - instead, they just want a 'homo-belief' world where THEIR voice happens to be the loudest)... The LAUGH (irony) there, is that even if that were to happen, then the homo-seeds which emanated from that primordial mass, woul likely start to faction off amongst themselves...

Anyway - What doest this have to do with markets?

You tell me...

Metaphorically... I could choose to play the Miami Heat (on paper)... In which case I might as well go home...

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