This compact site enables readers to find most of the information they want about HBCUs with a few mouse clicks. It hosts the "Gateway to HBCUs" (left column) that provides links to data about the academic activities of HBCUs. The site also provides links to statistical reports, an op-ed blog, tech news (daily), and a tech magazine (weekly) that identify Black efforts to use Internet-based technologies to close the Digital Divide

Friday, April 19, 2013

Why North Carolina's Five Public HBCUs Are Still Needed -- Part 1

A Very Bad Idea Whose Time Will, Hopefully, Never Come In a recent article (Consolidate UNC Campuses But Give Savings to HBCUs, Newsobserver.com, 3/26/13), Mr. Rick Martinez lamented what he regarded as the unacceptably low graduation rates of North Carolina's five HBCUs -- Elizabeth City State University, Fayetteville State University, North Carolina A&T University, North Carolina Central University, and Winston-Salem State University. He proposed to raise their graduation rates by merging them into a smaller number of institutions and passing the savings that he anticipated from the lower costs of operating the more efficient consolidations to the merged HBCUs.

IMHO Mr. Martinez places North Carolina's public HBCUs within a 20th century framework. He therefore sees them as underperforming corporate entities for which he applies an inappropriate 20th century corporate solution ==> consolidation

By contrast, within a 21st century framework, I see these same HBCUs as valuable assets whose performance could be enhanced by applying 21st century solution strategies ==> "disruptive innovations"

In other words, Mr. Martinez sees the glass as half-empty; I see it as half-full. He wants to merge the state's HBCUs into fewer campuses, whereas the reader will see that I would advocate increasing the number of HBCU campuses so as to provide more opportunities for blended degree programs composed of face-to-face courses, blended courses, and online courses.

A. Corporate IllusionsWhy would consolidation yield substantial savings? Unlike modern corporations, higher education in North Carolina and throughout most the nation's colleges and universities is still a labor intensive activity; so the state's black students would still require the same number of instructors and the same number of administrative support staff after the HBCUs were consolidated. Indeed, consolidation would only yield substantial savings if the number of black students enrolled in the consolidated mega-HBCUs was substantially lower than are currently enrolled in the five public HBCUs. As can be seen fromTable 1 (below), the total black enrollment -- 23,643 -- at the five HBCUs is 40 percent higher than the total black enrollment at North Carolina's 11 non-HBCUs -- 17,192. Readers should note that the five HBCUs are listed at the top of the table in order of their six year graduation rates; the 11 non-HBCUs follow the HBCUS, again in order of their six year graduation rates.Given that Mr. Martinez has not proposed to expel substantial numbers of black students or to substantially reduce the number of black students admitted to the state's public institutions in the future, there is no reason to believe that herding them all into fewer HBCUs or dispersing them among the state's non-HBCUs would substantially reduce the total cost of educating them.Table 1 -- Undergraduate Enrollments and Graduation Rates in Fall 2011

University

Six-year Graduation
Rates-- Fall 2011

Total
UndergradEnrollment

Percent
Black

Black
UndergradEnrollment

Elizabeth City State University

44%

2836

74%

2099

Winston-Salem State University

41%

5692

78%

4440

North Carolina A & T State University

41%

9206

88%

8101

North Carolina Central University

38%

6416

84%

5389

Fayetteville State University

31%

5162

70%

3613

Total Black Enrollment

23643

University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

89%

18430

9%

1659

North Carolina State University at Raleigh

72%

25176

8%

2014

University of North Carolina at Wilmington

67%

11950

5%

598

Appalachian State University

65%

15460

3%

464

University of North Carolina at Asheville

61%

3814

3%

114

East Carolina University

59%

21589

15%

3238

University of North Carolina School of the Arts

58%

772

9%

69

University of North Carolina at Greensboro

53%

14898

23%

3427

University of North Carolina at Charlotte

53%

20283

17%

3448

Western Carolina University

50%

7627

6%

458

University of North Carolina at Pembroke

34%

5494

31%

1703

Total Black Enrollment

17192

Source -- Data extracted from interactive database on IPEDS Data Center WebsiteB. Graduation Rates at North Carolina's Public HBCUsAs can be seen from Table 1 (above), the six year graduation rates of
the five HBCUs are lower than those of most (but not all) of North
Carolina's 11 non-HBCUs.But why does Mr. Martinez think the graduation rates of the public HBCUs are too low? Why does he lament that:

"In my book, the best measure of an institution’s worth is its graduation
rate, and the numbers out of the state’s HBCUs aren’t good. Not only is
this a poor return on the state’s investment, it’s also a big-time
problem for the students. Prospective employers are interested only in
degrees earned, not classes taken."

Not good? ... "Poor return"?? ... Big-time problem???? What did he expect them to be? Indeed, how high should we expect the HBCU graduation rates to be? Rather than propose an arbitrary cut-off of acceptability, it will be more instructive to compare the graduation rates of the HBCUs with the graduation rates of the other universities within the University of North Carolina (UNC) system. C. Graduation Rates vs. SAT Scores and Pell Grants Table 2 (below) again displays graduation rates for the 16 public universities in North Carolina, but this time the rates are accompanied by SAT scores and Pell grant allocations that will provide context and explanation for the differences between the graduation rates of the five HBCUs and the non-HBCUs in our comparisons. Close examination of the data in Table 2 reveals two broad patterns:

The higher the SAT scores, the higher the university's graduation rates ... more or less-- Note: 25 percent of the entering freshmen obtained scores on their SAT exams that were below the 25th percentile mark-- Note: 25 percent of the entering freshmen obtained scores on their SAT exams that were above the 75th percentile mark

The higher the percentage of students receiving Pell grants, the lower the university's graduation rates ... more or less ... This pattern occurs overall, but not among the HBCUs

These broad patterns are not surprising because:

SAT tests are designed to predict academic performance

Pell grants are awarded to financially needy students. Unfortunately, Pell grants don't cover all tuition and living expenses. Hence the higher the percentage of students receiving Pell grants, the higher the percentage of students who will feel pressed to take part-time jobs whose working hours may interfere with their academic efforts. This will be especially true in the aftermath of the Great Recession for Black and Hispanic students who cannot offset rising tuition with increased financial support from their families.

As reported by the Pew Research Center, "From 2005 to 2009, inflation-adjusted median wealth fell by 66% among Hispanic households and 53% among black households, compared with just 16% among white households." (See "Wealth Gaps Rise to Record Highs Between Whites, Blacks, Hispanics" -- Pew Research Social & Demographic Trends, July 26, 2011)

Although broad patterns can be detected in Table 2, the table presents too much data in too many categories to readily assess the performance of the HBCUs. Therefore the data in Table 2 is summarized in Table 3 (below) and discussed in the next section of this note.The reader should note that the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill is not grouped with the other non-HBCUs in Table 2 in order to emphasize that it in a class by itself, sui generis. Chapel Hill is the flagship of the UNC system: its professors receive substantially higher salaries, and the admissions criteria for its students are substantially higher than at the other 15 universities.Chapel Hill is as good as it gets. Hence it is the gold standard to which the performance of the HBCUs and North Carolina's other 10 public universities will be compared in the remaining sections of this discussion.Table 2. Graduation Rates vs. Pell Grant Percentages and SAT Scores in Fall 2011

University

Six-year Grad Rates
(2)

Percent of full-time
first-time undergrads receiving Pell grants
(3)

Total
Undergrad
(4)

SAT Critical Reading 25th
percentile
(5)

SAT Critical Reading 75th
percentile
(6)

SAT Math 25th percentile
(7)

SAT Math 75th percentile
(8)

SAT Writing 25th
percentile
(9)

SAT Writing 75th
percentile
(10)

University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

89%

20%

18430

590

700

610

710

590

690

North Carolina State University at Raleigh

72%

29%

25176

530

620

560

660

510

610

University of North Carolina at Wilmington

67%

22%

11950

540

620

550

620

520

600

Appalachian State University

65%

23%

15460

510

610

530

610

490

590

University of North Carolina at Asheville

61%

33%

3814

540

650

520

620

510

620

East Carolina University

59%

34%

21589

460

550

490

570

450

540

U. North Carolina School of the Arts

58%

25%

772

510

630

480

600

490

620

University of North Carolina at Greensboro

53%

45%

14898

460

560

460

560

440

550

University of North Carolina at Charlotte

53%

38%

20283

480

570

500

590

470

550

Western Carolina University

50%

41%

7627

470

560

480

570

440

530

University of North Carolina at Pembroke

34%

58%

5494

410

490

420

500

390

470

Elizabeth City State University

44%

80%

2836

370

450

380

470

350

430

Winston-Salem State University

41%

73%

5692

400

480

410

490

380

460

North Carolina A & T State University

41%

68%

9206

390

480

410

500

350

440

North Carolina Central University

38%

76%

6416

380

460

390

470

370

450

Fayetteville State University

31%

75%

5162

370

450

390

470

350

430

Source -- Data extracted from interactive database on IPEDS Data Center WebsiteD. Weighted AveragesTable 3 (below) displays weighted averages of the data presented in Table 2 (above), wherein the universities are divided into three groups: "Upper Five" non-HBCUs, "Lower Five" non-HBCUs, and "HBCUs." Weighted averages of the data presented in Table 2 are calculated for each group where the averages are weighted by the total undergraduate enrollments in each university.

Column (2) displays the average enrollments in each group

Column (3) displays the weighted average six-year graduation rates for each group

Column (4) displays the weighted average Pell percentages for each group

The weighted averages for the Reading, Math, and Writing 25th percentiles were calculated, but are not displayed

Column (5) displays the simple average of the weighted 25th percentiles, i.e., it displays the sum of the weighted averages for the Reading, Math, and Writing 25th percentiles divided by 3

Column (6) displays the simple average of the weighted 75th percentiles, i.e., it displays the
sum of the weighted averages for the Reading, Math, and Writing 75th
percentiles divided by 3

The broad patterns that were discernible in Table 2 (above) are now crystal clear in Table 3 (below):

The higher a group's weighted SAT scores, the higher its weighted average graduation rates

The higher a group's weighted Pell grant percentages, the lower its weighted average graduation rates

The SAT scores suggest that the Upper Five universities tend to enroll B students, together with some A and C students; the Lower Five tend to enroll C students, together with some A and B students; and the HBCUs tend tend to enroll C students, together with some A, B, and marginal students. Table 3. Weighted Averages of Graduation Rates vs. Pell Grant Percentages and SAT Scores in Fall 2011

Group

Enrollment Average
(2)

Graduation Rates Weighted
Average
(3)

Percentage Pell Grants
Weighted Average
(4)

SAT 25th Percentile Weighted
Average
(5)

SAT 75th Percentile Weighted
Average
(6)

University
of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

18430

89%

20%

597

700

Upper
Five

15598

66%

28%

510

601

Lower
Five

9815

50%

43%

463

555

HBCUS

5862

39%

73%

381

465

Upper Five = North Carolina State University at Raleigh, University of North Carolina at Wilmington, Appalachian State University, University of North Carolina at Asheville, East Carolina University
Lower Five = University North Carolina School of the Arts, University of North Carolina at Greensboro, University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Western Carolina University, University of North Carolina at Pembroke
HBCUs= Elizabeth City State University, Winston-Salem State University, North Carolina A & T State University, North Carolina Central University, Fayetteville State University
E. Expected Graduation RatesTable 4 (below) displays the graduation
rates that could be expected for each group if their rates were
proportional to their students' SAT scores:

Column (2) repeats the percent Pell grant weighted average for each group for convenient reference

Column (3) repeats the 6-year graduation rates weighted averages for each group, again for convenient reference

Column (4) displays the ratios of the sum of the each group's weighted 25th and 75 percentile scores to the sum of Chapel Hill's scores for its 25th and 75th percentile scores. Ratios are expressed as percentages.

Column (6) displays the differences between the expected scores in column (5) and the weighted averages in column (3)

It should come as no surprise that the graduation rates for all three groups fall short of the estimates based on comparisons with Chapel Hill. If all other things were equal, the students attending universities in the Upper Five, Lower Five, and HBCUs would have access to the same quality of resources as the students at Chapel Hill. So their lower graduation rates would only reflect their weaker academic preparation... but all other things are far from equal. Chapel Hill is the flagship of the UNC system, so the state has provided it with disproportionately more premium resources, including more highly paid, nationally renowned faculty. (Note: The IPEDs database reports that the average salary of full-time faculty at Chapel Hill was $105,000 in the Fall 2011 semester, but no other university in the UNC system had average faculty salaries higher than $90,000, and most were substantially lower than $80,000)However, Mr. Martinez and other critics of the five HBCUs in the UNC system may be surprised to learn that:

The 6-year graduation shortfall for the HBCUs, 19.2 percent, was slightly less than that of the Lower Five group, 19.4 percent

The HBCUs attained this parity despite the fact that 73 percent of their entering freshmen were financially pressed Pell grant recipients, whereas only 43 percent of the Lower Five freshmen received Pell grants.

The estimated shortfalls for the HBCUs and Lower Five should not be taken too literally. What the equal shortfalls do suggest is that the HBCUs are doing at least a good a job as the universities in the Lower Five, and all the more so given the substantially higher percentage of financially pressed students who are enrolled in the HBCUs.On the other hand, the average enrollment in the Lower Five, 9815, is substantially larger than the average enrollment in the HBCUs, 5862; hence far more students would benefit from improvements in the learning environments of those universities than from comparable improvements in the HBCUs. So the question becomes, "Why do Mr. Martinez and others focus their concerns on North Carolina's public HBCUs?"

Table 4. Expected Average Graduation Rates in Fall 2011

Group

Percent Pell Grant
Weighted Average
(2)

Graduation Rates Weighted
Average
(3)

SAT% of Chapel Hill
(4)

Expected Graduation Rates
(5)

Shortfalls
(6)

University
of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

20%

89.0%

100.0%

89.0%

0.0%

Upper
Five

28%

65.7%

85.7%

76.3%

-10.6%

Lower
Five

43%

50.5%

78.5%

69.8%

-19.4%

HBCUS

73%

38.9%

65.2%

58.1%

-19.2%

Upper Five = North Carolina State University at
Raleigh, University of North Carolina at Wilmington, Appalachian State
University, University of North Carolina at Asheville, East Carolina
University
Lower Five = University North Carolina School of the Arts, University of
North Carolina at Greensboro, University of North Carolina at
Charlotte, Western Carolina University, University of North Carolina at
Pembroke
HBCUs= Elizabeth City State University, Winston-Salem State University,
North Carolina A & T State University, North Carolina Central
University, Fayetteville State UniversityPart 2 -- North Carolina's Public HBCUs as an Epicenter of Black Higher Education ... in process

Part 1 of this essay rejected the notion that merging UNC's five public HBCUs would yield substantial savings. It also rejected the notion that their graduation rates were too low.

Part 2 will suggest that UNC's five public HBCUs not only occupy a unique position within the HBCU community, but with modest additional support are poised to become national leaders in the creative embrace of the emerging "destructive innovations" in higher education. These IT-based innovations hold the promise of producing learning environments that are substantially more effective, not just for the 9 percent of black students enrolled in the nation's 105 HBCUs, but for the other 91 percent enrolled in non-HBCUs, i.e., in the nation's mainstream colleges and universities.