Energy Market Analysis - 15-06-2017

Gas prices displayed losses yesterday as the two-week shutdown of the interconnector pipeline will result in surplus supply, while the LNG outlook was improved. Strong downward movement could also be seen on the far-curve following a sharp decrease in oil.

Power contracts closed at a discount on Wednesday with warmer temperatures, a rise in renewable generation and a falling oil market contributing to the bearish sentiment. The majority of contracts followed their gas counterparts, although a falling Pound and an increase in coal contracts offered some support.

Market Close

Market Close

Gas prices continue on a downward trend this morning as comfortable demand levels have weighed on the near-curve. Warm temperatures will reduce residential demand in the UK and the system is balanced despite a number of outages which have limited Norwegian imports. Bearish movement on the oil market has also helped far-curve contracts move down, although a weaker Pound has limited the losses.

Power prices have dropped this morning on the back of the warm weather outlook which will reduce consumption levels over the weekend. Solar production is set to increase further but wind levels are weaker today, although an increase is expected next week. Power contracts have also been pressured down by losses on the gas and oil markets.

Brent 1st-nearby prices recorded strong losses yesterday and trade close to $46.8/b this morning, with bearish pressure provided by the latest EIA stock report; the report showed a significant rise in inventories and domestic production.

1-year forward prices

Market close data has revealed that the 1-year forward price for both commercial gas & commercial electricity recorded a loss – closing at 42.10ppt and £42.61/MWh, respectively.

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