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BJP Vs BJP in Gujarat: Standing against anti-incumbency is the 56 inch chest of Narendra Modi

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BJP Vs BJP in Gujarat: Standing against anti-incumbency is the 56 inch chest of Narendra Modi

If one were to sum up the situation in poll-going Gujarat, the prime minister’s home state, a widespread desire for change is pitted against a phenomenon called Narendra Modi whose popularity, paradoxically, has not dipped as has BJP’s stock in the state.

This election, watched internationally because it will have a bearing on Modi’s strongman image as also on political stability in the country, is not really a BJP versus Congress fight. It is not as if people are looking at Congress as the hot alternative. When those unhappy with BJP look the other way, they find only Congress, though many profess “no love” for it. So if Congress gains, it will be by default.

There is visible anger in some sections today – like Patidars demanding reservation in jobs and education, or farmers reeling under the fall in price of their produce. There are those who feel that BJP must be taught a lesson for their “arrogance”, and words such as “ghamand”, “manmaani” are used. The need to give them a “phatka” (jolt) to chasten them, surfaces in conversations. But this does not appear to be universal.

Illustration: Uday Deb

Nor is this a Modi versus Rahul Gandhi poll, though Rahul is not being rubbished as he used to be. He did manage to put BJP on the defensive with the help of a smart social media team, on “development” and “unemployment”. In some way, Ahmed Patel’s election to the Rajya Sabha was also a turning point, sending the message to the Congress worker that victory could be snatched from the jaws of defeat.

Rahul also kept the discourse away from the usual Hindu-Muslim polarisation and avoided any mention of 2002. But last week, Congress fell into BJP’s trap when it went into explanations of ‘Rahul being a Janeu wearing Brahmin’, or attacking Modi for not being a ‘true Hindu’, or Amit Shah being ‘not a Hindu, but a Jain’. By doing so it took the game back into BJP territory, which suits BJP.

Congress’s main problem however is that India’s Grand Old Party does not have the organisational muscle to convert “unhappiness” into votes, nor a charismatic chief ministerial face. In contrast BJP has a well-oiled poll machinery, booth level management, a strategy that is being constantly recalibrated, and no lack of resources.

Having said that, more people have been willing to listen to what Rahul has to say and this has everything to do with the changing mood in Gujarat.

It is this changing mood which has thrown up Gujarat’s new ‘trimurti’ representing the rise of new political energies – Hardik Patel, Alpesh Thakor and Jignesh Mevani – and they have captured the imagination of youth in their communities.

Hardik Patel is doing what former CM Keshubhai Patel did not do in 2012. Unlike Keshubhai, Hardik’s strategy is to try and deliver the disaffected Patidar vote to Congress, not merely to oppose BJP and divide the anti-BJP vote. The Patidars have been the mainstay of BJP’s support since the 80s, and the 23-year-old Hardik has come to symbolise their angst. He has emerged as the star campaigner of this election with crowds thronging to hear him.

Gujarat 2017 is more a BJP versus BJP story. There is on the one hand anti-incumbency of 22 years, compounded by the absence of a figure like Modi in charge of the state, with factional battles inside BJP which went to fuel the Patidar agitation in the first place.

Trying to stem this negativity is the 56 inch chest of Narendra Modi. The PM is going all out to make an emotional pitch to woo voters, particularly fence sitters – as the son of the soil, who may have gone to Delhi but has not forgotten them, the poll outcome being a matter of Gujarat’s pride, and Congress always having insulted the state.

The disaffection against BJP is more visible in rural Gujarat, though people are also more wary of revealing their mind. When i moved through the countryside – in north Gujarat, Saurashtra, even prosperous central Gujarat (Kheda district is the richest in the country) or the tribal belt in Bharuch – and heard the voices at the ground level, i began to wonder if there was a silent sentiment afoot against BJP.

But in the cities it was back to Modi, and the urban and semi-urban seats account for 84 seats out of a total of 182 in a state which is highly urbanised.

Even in Surat, where traders held a month long agitation against GST, many were heard talking about voting BJP again given course correction by the Centre. The Patidar factor, however, has made the fight ‘tough’ in 4 out of 12 seats in Surat, traditionally considered BJP fiefdoms.

Traders have been assured that their problems would be taken care of. But also that if BJP loses, they will face more problems. With Modi’s prestige at stake, BJP has not been shy of using ‘saam daam dand bhed’ to go for the kill.

What does it all add up to in electoral terms? Most people like to hedge their bets, particularly after having burnt their fingers in UP. Or say that Modi will make it, but with a reduced majority.

If Congress can swing 6-7% more votes than it did last time, the game will change. But then it has to contend with the reality that while Gujaratis’ love for BJP is diminishing, their faith in Modi endures.