GameNight: Georgia Tech vs UIC

A couple of teams that
have generally played well, but escaped national attention are the focus of
my preview today, as #57 Illinois Chicago (5-2, 1-0) face #69
Georgia Tech (5-1).

The UIC Flames had
a tough start to the season, sandwiching losses to Bradley and DePaul around
a win over Northern Iowa, but have gone 4-0 since, including an impressive
20-point win at Vanderbilt. GeorgiaTech has its own win over
Vandy, while the Yellow Jackets’ only loss came in the ACC-Big Ten Challenge
against a Penn St. team off to a good start.

This looks like it will be
a really interesting contrast in styles, as the two teams take very
different approaches to getting their points. UIC is most effective outside,
and it shows in their shooting, as they are excellent from behind the arc
and at the free throw line, but their two-point percentage is poor, and they
shoot nearly the same percentage from two as from three. The offense would
be really efficient if they could take more three pointers, rather than
having misses from inside, as they commit few turnovers and are decent on
the offensive glass. As it is, the offense is solid, but nothing more.
Georgia Tech has hung its hat on defense so far in the season, a departure
from the last couple of seasons, and closer to the style of the ’04 and ’05
NCAA Tournament teams, though it’s somewhat unlikely it’ll stay at those
levels. The Yellow Jacket defense has had no core strength so far, as they
have stopped shots, forced turnovers and grabbed boards at respectable
levels, adding up to a strong defensive whole. They are good shot-blockers,
and given UIC’s woeful interior scoring, this could be a real advantage for
them.

Offensively, Georgia Tech
is a fast-paced team that almost totally ignores the three, currently
sitting dead last in the nation in the percentage of attempts that come from
three, the only team that’s taken take less than 19% of shots from behind
the arc. Given their poor percentages both from three and at the line, this
doesn’t seem an unwise decision. The good news for the Yellow Jackets is
that they are good at scoring inside, with the added bonus of capturing a
lot of offensive rebounds. Considering their high pace and inside focus,
they are also very impressive in ball control, not gifting their opponents
many turnovers. Georgia Tech’s play down low creates a favorable matchup
with UIC, as the Flames defend quite poorly inside, and don’t do great on
the defensive glass. UIC should try and make this a game played on the
perimeter, as they force a poor three-point percentage and a lot of
turnovers from their opponents.

It probably won’t last,
but there’s a decent statistical argument that Gani Lawal has been the best
forward in the ACC not named Hansborough. The 6-8 sophomore is seeing double
the minutes he did last season, and has thrived so far, shooting over 60%
from the field, ranking third in the ACC in points and leading the ACC in
rebounding, though with more minutes per game than players like Hansbrough
and Singler have had. Still, Lawal, who broke 15 points just once last
season, has twice scored over 25, including a career-high 34 in the Penn St.
defeat. He came down to earth somewhat against Vandy, and the Jackets must
hope that doesn’t end up as a sign for the rest of the season. He’s joined
inside by the only current senior starter, 6-10 Alade Aminu, who is also
shooting above 60% from the field, and has averaged nearly 9 rebounds a
game, and junior Zach Peacock, who is the least effective of the three main
inside options. There are questions about the Jackets’ guard play, as they
have precious little experience after senior Lewis Clinch was declared
academically ineligible (though this may be
cleared up in time for today’s game). In Clinch’s absence, highly-touted
freshman Iman Shumpert has stepped up, and while Shumpert’s shooting has not
been good, his second-in-the-ACC 6 assists a game, along with a 2.0 A/TO
ratio have been excellent from such a young player. He’s been joined by
Maurice Miller, who is posting similar numbers in assists, but really needs
to stop shooting, as he’s at just 25% from the field, and 0-17 from three.
Lance Storrs has been an effective backup guard, while Bassirou Dieng and
Brad Sheehan can provide help inside, but the Jackets are a fairly shallow
team who would be greatly helped by Clinch’s return.

UIC have an excellent
two-man inside-outside combination in Josh Mayo and Scott VanderMeer, two
seniors who are the heart of this Flames team. Mayo’s numbers in particular
have been outstanding, as he is shooting over 60% from behind the arc on a
fairly large number of attempts, and he enters this game on a 18-24 run from
three. He provides some assists and steals as well, but the Horizon’s
leading scorer doesn’t need to do much beside shoot to be a very effective
player. 7-footer VanderMeer’s shooting percentage is a fair bit lower than
Mayo’s, which has got to be a concern, but the big man makes up for it with
his defensive presence, as he leads the Horizon in both blocks and rebounds,
and he will have to have a big game and avoid foul trouble for the Flames to
win. Guard Robert Kreps is the team’s second leading scorer, and has been a
solid second shooting option on the perimeter. The other starters are
Spencer Stewart, who has been a terrible shooter, but knows his job is just
to move the ball around, hence his leading the conference in assists, and
Rob Eppinger, a 6-8 forward who isn’t particularly notable. The main player
coming of the bench is Tori Boyd, a 6-5 forward who has had a couple of big
scoring games, and gets to the line pretty well. This is another fairly
shallow team, and they lose a lot when VanderMeer or Mayo is out.

These are two teams that have looked pretty good this season, as UIC seem
serious Horizon contenders, while Georgia Tech seem closer to the high end
of
Paul Hewitt’s best case scenario than many expected. While UIC have the
ability to win this game, I think that Georgia Tech’s inside play will cause
serious havoc for the Flames, and that they will pull off the home win.

Winner: Georgia Tech Margin: 3-7

-- Evan Dorey's game previews & rankings are based on
Elo Ratings. Elo Ratings are fairly simple, all teams are assigned an
initial number of points, which is the same for all teams, eliminating
preseason bias. Then, as the season progresses, when a team wins it gains
points, and when it loses it drops points. The amount of points that are
gained or lost depend on the level of the opponent (beating a cupcake gets
you little, beating #1 will be a big increase), the scoring margin of the
game (which is capped), and the game’s location. To take a look at Evan's
College Basketball Elo Ratings, visit
his website or
blog where he discusses the
rankings along with other statistical observations about big games and
interesting teams.