Analysis: Christie is leading early GOP NH Primary poll, and he better

On the one hand New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie has to look at the latest WMUR Granite State Poll and be pleased that he is leading the Republican field for the next primary even though he hasn't stepped foot in the state in nearly a year. One the other hand, he better be winning here.

In the poll, 21 percent say they would vote for Christie if the primary vote were held today. This is ahead of the 16 percent who would vote for Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, the 10 percent who back former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and the 6 percent who like former vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan.

Yet Christie aides must know that if Christie were to run for president, New Hampshire is a must win state, given that it is the only early state that he could even logically have a shot of winning.

As one runs through the calendar of presidential primaries and caucuses as they are currently believed to occur, Christie would lose Iowa, where social conservatives are expected to dominate again. He could win New Hampshire and stay in the game, but then he would head to South Carolina where no one from the Northeast or Midwest has ever won. Christie, a moderate, would also have a tough time in a Rand Paul dominated Nevada Caucus. Further, Florida, where Christie could mark a second win, has moved itself back in 2016 and won't vote until March. Then the list of states are bad news for Christie: Colorado caucuses, Minnesota caucuses, Utah primary. Arizona Republicans also want an early primary and currently say they will set their date to that of the Iowa Caucuses.

Christie is up for re-election as New Jersey governor this November. After that election, Christie should camp out in New Hampshire if he is serious about a run for president.