Lets go back a year and look at those players gone from the 2015 team. I’m building these partly from the Nats to Oblivion Posts and partly from my own notes using a combination of players gone via FA, trades, DFAs, to include major league players and significant minor league players. If a player is still in the org but was just DFA’d off the 40-man, I’ll mostly skip them. I may miss someone; pipe up in the comments if I have a glaring miss.

I’ll organize this by roughly by the level of the player; major league players who left via FA or trade, then DFA’d/declined players, then minor leaguers of note who departed.

Jordan Zimmermann; signed 5/$110M with Detroit and left us with a comp pick, used to take Dane Dunning. I think its safe to say that Zimmermann’s tenure in Detroit thus far has been disappointing: he had a 4.87 ERA in 2016 and missed half the season, and he’s been even worse this year. Detroit has to behaving some buyer’s remorse right now. And he’s signed for 3 more years past this one, at big money.

Dan Uggla: The Nats were probably his last stand chance in the majors; hit just .183 and was given just 17 ABs the last two months of the 2015 season. Never signed for 2016 and seems to be retired.

Doug Fister: signed 1/$7M with Houston, to whom he gave 32 starts and 180 innings of mediocrity (4.64 ERA) in 2016. Apparently still believes he’s worthy of a 25-man spot and refused all offers this past off-season that were not MLB deals. Remains unsigned as of this writing; he may have to swallow his pride if he wants to keep playing and take a MLFA deal.

Ian Desmond signed 1/$11M with Texas after declining Washington’s qualifying offer. Desmond became kind of the poster child for all the things wrong with the Qualifying Offer season; after turning down a 5yr/$89.5M deal the previous season, he turned down a guaranteed $15.8M offer to eventually sign for $11M. To add insult to injury, Desmond had to move off of SS for Texas, which was what propped up his value in the first place. He had an up-and-down season with Texas, starting the year incredibly hot and making the All Star team, but slumping towards the end. He got saddled with a second QO, which he again signed, but his 2016 season was enough for Colorado to give him perhaps the most inexplicable contract of last off-season, a 5yr/$70M deal … to play first base. A position he’d never played before. And Colorado gave up literally the highest unprotected draft pick to do so (the 11th pick in the upcoming 2017 draft). Desmond suffered a hand injury this spring, and as a result Colorado has installed slugger Mark Reynolds at 1B; he’s done so well that the team is wondering just what they’ll do with Desmond when he returns in early May. On the bright side for Desmond; at least he finally got paid. And i’m sure that 100% of Nats fans would take what the team has done at SS since over having a $90M contract on their hands.

Denard Span signed 3/$31M with San Francisco, capping a frustrating year for Span and the team. He only played 61 games for the 2015 team, forcing the Nats to start Michael Taylor and his 30% K rate in CF for a good chunk of the season. Span’s first season in SF was similar to his first in DC; he struggled offensively. He’s been even worse in 2017, and is currently on the D/L (in an interesting twist of fate; his replacement on the SF active roster? None other than Michael Morse).

Nate McLouth; The team couldn’t wait to decline his 2016 option and pay his 750k buyout for 2016 after his disastrous stint with Washington. His contract was ill-advised from the start; did we really need to pay good money to have a “veteran 4th outfielder?” McLouth missed the entirety of 2015, has yet to sign since, and may have played his way out of baseball.

Matt Thornton signed a MLFA deal with San Diego for 2016, got called up after a couple of months in AAA, but struggled. He posted a 5.82 ERA over the next couple of months and was released in August. He has not appeared since and now at age 40 is likely done.

Casey Janssen was so poor for the Nats that they bought his 2016 out for a cool $1.5M buyout for 2016); he also signed a MLFA deal with San Diego for 2016. Ah San Diego; the place where pitchers go to resurrect their careers. He was released in late Spring Training 2016, got picked up with Boston in June of 2016, pitched a bit for their Short-A and AAA teams then was released in early August 2016. Did not pick up with a team for 2017 and at age 35 with little velocity on his fastball, he may be retired.

Reed Johnson got picked back up on a MLFA deal by Washington for 2016 season, but did not make the team out of spring and was released on 4/2/16. He did not pick up with anyone for 2016 and at age 39 may be retired.

Taylor Jordan: After brief stints with the team in 2015, started 2016 in AAA but got hurt in June of 2016, he had a second TJ surgery … and then was released by the club on 6/28/16 to correspond to the Giolito contract addition. Man, that seems kind of cold to release a guy just after surgery, but his odds of making it back to the majors just took a significant hit. As of 2017 has not re-signed anywhere and seems a long-shot to do so, with little major league track record and two arm injuries. Likely out of baseball at this point.

David Carpenter: shoulder injury, DFA’d, elected free agency and quickly signed a ML deal with Atlanta for 2016. However he was cut after just a handful of spring training games; maybe his injury is worse than we thought. He then bounced from Tampa to the Angels system for 2016, and then signed back with Tampa as a MLFA/NRI for 2017, but was cut on 4/4/17.

Emmanuel Burriss: signed MLFA with Philly and lead-off against the Nats in their first visit to Philadelphia in the new season. He was DFA’d and purchased a couple times by Philly last year, but upon his outright after the season he elected FA and signed a MLFA to return to the Nats for 2017. He looked like nice utility infielder insurance until he got suspended for a “drug of abuse” in the spring (his second such offense). He currently sits on Syracuse’s restricted list. I have to say; his status as the sole DC-bred baseball player in the pros (as far as I can tell) and his playing for the Washington franchise seems to put him in a great post-career outreach position … but now with two drug suspensions on his resume, I wonder if he’s scuttled any such possibility of representing the team in the community.

Craig Stammen: fan favorite had an ill-timed injury late in the 2015 season and was non-tendered instead of guaranteeing him a contract for 2016. He signed a MLFA with Cleveland for 2016 but never made it out of AAA. I had him as a leading “oblivion candidate” until he signed another MLFA deal for 2017 and made the San Diego opening day roster. His april has not been good though, sporting an ERA in the mid 8s as of May 1st. He may be in danger of a DFA, which might spell the end of his MLB career given how the last couple of seasons have gone. He gave the Nats 3 solid years as a bullpen workhorse that may have led to his eventual wearing out.

Tyler Moore never could match the magic of his debut season in 2012, but a series of injuries kept him hanging around in 2014 and 2015 when he may otherwise have been released. His luck ran out though for the 2016 team, when he got beat out for the RH bench bat by Chris Heisey and he got DFA’d at the end of spring training. We negotiated a trade of similar discarded assets with Atlanta, trading Moore for Nate Freiman. Freiman didn’t last three weeks with the AAA team before being released (a measure of just how little we got in return for trade), while Moore got injured early and missed most of the year for AAA Gwinnett. He signed a MLFA for 2017 with the Marlins and team out of spring training. He even got a crucial hit against the Nats early in 2017 season, but was soon DFA’d again. He passed through waivers and was outrighted to New Orleans (where, as noted in the previous post, he joins a litany of former Nats).

Xavier Cedeno was the first 25-man DFA of the 2015 season. He was used 4 times in 5 nights in early April, gave up a couple of runs and then got designated with just 3 IP. It was an odd move at the time; why was he getting appearance after appearance if the team was going to DFA him? Why did the team have so little patience with him? After his DFA, he got purchased by the Dodgers, who then sold him to the Rays 5 days later … and he had 61 appearances with a 2.09 ERA for Tampa Bay the rest of 2015. He was a solid bullpen arm for them all of 2016 and remains on their team now. Do you think maybe the team gave up on him too soon?

Taylor Hill: Hill was DFA’d to make room for January 2016 signings and was outrighted to AAA, where he pitched the entire 2016 season. Hill finished out the year for AAA Syracuse with a 4.60 ERA in 27 starts. He is still with the AAA team for 2017 but has been passed on the depth chart by several guys (Cole, Voth, Fedde) and faces long odds of a return to the majors with this organization. Additionally, Hill has started the 2017 AAA season by getting shelled; an 8.14 ERA for April. He may be in serious jeopardy of getting released.

Aaron Barrett: Tommy John in 2015, then in June of 2016, he had a major set-back in his TJ recovery, fracturing his elbow. He has re-signed with the Nats for 2017 and starts the year on the AAA D/L. I was happy to see the Nats give Barrett this gesture of signing him so that he can rehab with the team, and I hope it pays off with an eventual return to the fold.

Matt Purke got his last shot at salvaging a career with the Nats, who signed him for big-time money ($2.75M as a 3rd rounder in 2011, the last free for all non-capped bonus draft). He failed to impress again, and the team let him go to free agency. He signed a MLFA deal with the Chicago White Sox, who assigned him to AAA … and then he earned a call-up by mid May 2016. The nats were looking rather foolish for cutting bait on a guy who made the Chicago MLB team after just a few weeks. But his time in South-Side was short lived; he was optioned back to the minors by the end of June, never made it back, was outrighted over the off-season and started 2017 off the 40-man pitching for AAA Charlotte. He is still wild (8 walks in 11 2017 innings) but he’s only 26 so there may still be time. But from a Nats transaction perspective, i’m not sure what else they could have done.

Yunel Escobar: after a productive season with the Nats, where Escobar played multiple positions and covered for infield injuries galore, he was traded to Los Angeles Angels for Trevor Gott and Michael Brady in the off-season. At the time of the trade (mid December 2015) Escobar was considered surplus to requirements, in that the team had its infield already spoken for in Anthony Rendon, Danny Espinosa, and Trea Turner. Two weeks later the team signed Danny Murphy to play 2B, thus relegating Turner back to AAA to save his service clock. Escobar was traded to the team with perhaps the worst farm system in the majors; Gott has yet to throw a pitch for the MLB team and Brady is already gone via MLFA, so the return for Escobar is rather paltry. That being said, I think the league knew we were shopping him, he had just had a career year with a BA 30 points above his career average, and may have been ceiling limited with the expectation of regression. Since the trade, Escobar has played a solid 3B for the Angels and kept his BA above .300, and has been joined in their infield by fellow Nats reject Espinosa.

Drew Storen traded with cash to Toronto for Ben Revere, ptbnl. I think we’ve litigated the Storen case to death; he was flipped more or less since the acquisition of Jonathan Papelbon and Storen’s undeserved demotion seemed to break him; it was as clear of a case of someone needing “a change of scenery” as I’ve seen with one of our players. We got a player in Revere that filled a point of need (CF) and one that looked on paper like a good deal at the time. I think its fair to say now that this trade didn’t work out for either team: Storen put up an ERA north of 6.00 for Toronto, got flipped again to Seattle, and at current sits as the 8th inning guy for one of the worst teams in baseball (Cincinnati). Meanwhile Revere barely hit the Mendoza line for the Nats, forcing the team to put its SS of the future into CF as a make-shift replacement, and got non-tendered at season’s end. A crummy end to Storen’s career here, where he remains in 2nd place all time (behind Chad Cordero) in career franchise saves.

Kila Ka’aihue, Ian Stewart, Mike Carp: part of the great 2016 RH bat spring training cattle call; didn’t make the team and were eventually released.

Tony Renda traded to Yankees for David Carpenter mid-season in an attempt to buttress the bullpen. Didn’t work. Renda may have been my farcical “future hall of famer” before Max Schrock, in that they’re both basically undersized middle infielders that posted good minor league numbers but seem ceiling limited. Renda got traded to Cincinnati ahead of the 2016 season, had a cup of coffee up there, but got outrighted after the 2016 season and remains on the AAA Louisville roster.

Mitch Lively and Evan Meek: both AAA hurlers released from their contracts so they could sign in Japan and Korea respectively. Lively struggled in Japan and has been pitching in the Mexican league ever since, while Meek also struggled in the KBO and has been playing indy ball ever since.

Jose Valverde opted out of his MLFA contract and was released in July; never picked back up for 2015, or 2016. Kept pitching in winter ball and is now in the Mexican league.

Eric Fornataro the off-season waiver claim never made it out of AAA, posting a mid 5 ERA and got released in July. He picked back up with a MLFA for 2016 with Baltimore, but struggled in AA and was released in May of 2016. He has not signed since and may be done.

Nick Pivetta: traded to Philadelphia for Papelbon. We know the Papelbon story, and now we know the Pivetta story; he debuted in Philly’s rotation last weekend in LA after a solid year starting in AA and AAA in 2016 and a hot start in Lehigh Valley for 2017. He may be in a position to haunt the Nats for 6 seasons …. all for a year and a half of tumult out of Papelbon.

Dan Butler was a Catcher we received from Boston for Danny Rosenbaum in Jan of 2015; he was a 40-man spot holder for most of the season but served mostly as catcher depth before being DFA’d in July to make room for Papelbon. He was outrighted to AAA, elected FA after the season and went right back to Boston for 2016. He remains as their AAA backup catcher.

Did I miss anyone?

Player I most miss from this list: From a Nats “legacy” perspective it was tough to wave good bye to Ian Desmond, who gave this franchise 11 years of his life. Same with Zimmermann; he was part of the core that turned this team from a laughing stock to divisional winner.

Player Loss I most regret using unfair “hindsight is 20/20” vision: Pivetta. Even if he’s “only” a 4th starter, he represents all that was wrong with the Papelbon decision.

Player Loss that is the most “We dodged a bullet” situation: Zimmermann’s contract; we thought he’d get overpaid, but a year and a half in his contract looks awful for an aging team that’s moving the wrong direction and has little chance of unseating Cleveland in their own division.

Note: this is a recurring post, and large chunks of the older material is recycled. I’ve updated the research for older players as needed (mostly 2015 and 2014’s players), getting 2016 season updates for everyone on this list still playing, plus 2017 assignments and whether or not htey’ve . See here for the 2015 version, 2014’s version, 2013’s version, and 2012’s version of this post, though honestly everything from those posts that’s still relevant is updated here.

Even though I know most of this data is repeated from last year, I still find myself reading the whole way down just for a crazy trip down memory lane each time I do this post.

Background: many years ago (November 2010) Mark Zuckerman initially posted a fascinating analysis he titled “From Nats to Oblivion.” It chronicled the astoundingly high number of players that the early incarnations of the Nats were using who, once the Nats released them, never again appeared in a MLB game. I thought the analysis was so interesting that I kept up the same data and have been keeping it up-to-date with the whereabouts of Nats-to-Oblivion candidates ever since. So with apologies to Zuckerman for stealing his original idea, here’s an interesting visit to the Nats darker past.

It is nearly impossible for a team to field an entire year’s worth of players who will not fall into this “Oblivion” category. Every MLB team has guys playing out the string or near retirement, and every MLB team calls up guys through out the season from the minors who eventually show themselves as unable to compete on the MLB level and who never make it back. So a 0% oblivion measure isn’t a goal. The best this team has done is 4 players (the 2013 team). I don’t think the 2015 team will get that low, and I’m not sure the 2016 team will get that low either.

For your reminiscing pleasure, here is the summary data updated to the 2016 team:

Look at the 2006 season; 35% of the players who played for the team that year never played another Major League game. That’s still astounding to me. Read on for a detailed look back at some of the very bad players that have put in significant time for this team.

Candidates: this is a preliminary list for now; many of these guys will have their names removed throughout 2017 since they remain on our 40-man roster. They are listed in the order of their odds of staying on this list: highest to lowest odds that they’re done playing.

Jonathan Papelbon: hard to believe he’s on this list. But the facts remain; after his release mid-2016, not only did he not sign on for the rest of the season … he has yet to sign on with anyone for 2017. Is it possible he’s being forced into retirement? I think he still holds value as a middle reliever for someone, but it is a possibility that his “baggage” is preventing teams from signing him. Or perhaps he’s instructed his agent to hold out for closing jobs only. Nonetheless, of all the players on this list, right now I give Papelbon the highest probability of being done with baseball and staying on this list.

Sean Burnett: given a quick look late in 2016, signed MLFA deal with Philadelphia for 2017 but failed to make their opening day Roster. Active on Philly’s AAA team all of 2017, but no appearances. Might be done.

Spencer Kieboom: had a “Moonlight Graham” esque 2016 debut; one at bat, a walk, then an off-season DFA. He remains in the organization but once you’re off that 40-man, its tough to get back on. I still think he’s 4th on the realistic catcher depth chart and may get called back up if injuries persist, but there is another catcher (Raudy Read) on the 40-man which complicates things for Kieboom. At least he got his one AB in the majors … which gives him access to the MLB players health benefit plan for life.

Clint Robinson: long-time minor league veteran made the team in 2015 and had a break-out season, but struggled badly in 2016, prompting the team to sign Adam Lind to a guaranteed deal, all but eliminating Robinson’s chances from making the roster. Robinson was waived towards the end of Spring Training as expected, cleared waivers and is at Syracuse. I give him a decent chance of getting called back up if Lind or Ryan Zimmerman gets hurt.

Rafael Martin: Just a handful of Sept 2016 innings after a not-very-impressive 2016 in Syracuse, and was DFA’d early in 2017; he was outrighted and may struggle to return to the majors.

These guys have a high likelihood of getting removed from this list as prospects still on the Nats 40-man roster, but are listed here for completion at this point.

Lucas Giolito: listed here for completion purposes; he did not break camp with the 2017 White Sox and had a very up and down 2017 for AAA Charlotte. Odds are he’ll get a 9/1 callup.

Names recently removed: Espinosa, Revere, Belisle, Melancon, Rzepczynski, all of whom signed MLB deals and appeared in the first week of 2017 for new teams. Petit, who made the 2017 Angels as an NRI. Difo and Taylor for making the Nats 2017 opening day roster and getting appearances. Mat Latos removed when Toronto added him and called him up in April 2017, shocking me; I figured Latos was done. Technically Ross’ first start removed him from this list. Matt den Dekker got removed when Detroit recalled him for a few games in June 2017. Wilson Ramos indeed returned from his injury and began starting for Tampa. Brian Goodwin not only returned to the majors but got an extended run of starts with Werth’s 2017 foot injury. Severino got recalled during an outfielder crunch in July 2017. A.J. Cole got a spot-start in May 2017. Relievers Gott and Grace both got re-calls, with Grace impressing and Gott not. Reynaldo Lopez removed upon his 8/11/17 call-up for CWS.

Outlook for remaining 2016 Oblivion candidates: Of the 5 candidates, I don’t see an easy path forward for any of them. Two are older guys probably forced out of the game, the other three marginal prospects who, now that they’re off the 40-man roster, face long odds of getting back on.

Favorite Nats to Oblivion Story: Jonathan Papelbon. What a whirlwind career he had with the Nats: he was already controversial even before arriving, then essentially ended the productive career of Drew Storen, who he replaced (as a condition of his accepting the trade) as closer upon his arrival. Two months into his tenure here, he took it upon himself to choke teammate Bryce Harper as Harper and the rest of the team disappointingly played out the string of the 2015 season. These two buried the hatchet over the off-season, and everyone looked happy entering 2016 … but a 6.00 ERA in June and an even worse ERA in July sealed Papelbon’s fate; the team paid heavily to acquire Mark Melancon for the stretch run and Papelbon was released a couple weeks later. Quite the Nats tenure for the combustible Papelbon.

Candidates (these players are listed in the order of their odds of staying on this list: highest to lowest odds that they’re done playing):

Dan Uggla: The Nats were probably his last stand chance in the majors; hit just .183 and was given just 17 ABs the last two months of the 2015 season. Never signed for 2016 and seems to be retired.

Reed Johnson: Got picked back up on a MLFA deal by Washington for 2016 season, but did not make the team out of spring and was released on 4/2/16. He did not pick up with anyone for 2016 and at age 39 may be retired.

Casey Janssen: Signed a ML deal with San Diego for 2016 but was released in late Spring Training. Picked up with Boston in June of 2016, pitched a bit for their Short-A and AAA teams then was released in early August 2016. Did not pick up with a MLB team for 2017. Signed for a Mexican league team, pitched in 15 games and was released. Might be the end of the line for the 35-yr old.

Taylor Jordan: After brief appearances in 2015, started 2016 in AAA but got hurt in June of 2016, he had a second TJ surgery … and then was released by the club on 6/28/16 to correspond to the Giolito contract addition. Man, that seems kind of cold to release a guy just after surgery, but his odds of making it back to the majors just took a significant hit. As of 2017 has not re-signed anywhere and seems a long-shot to do so, with little major league track record and two arm injuries. Likely done.

Aaron Barrett: the odds of him turning into Cole Kimball seems small; an elbow is not a shoulder. But until he recovers from his 2015 surgery, he’s an Oblivion candidate. He’ll sit on the 60-day D/L for most of 2016. In June of 2016, he had a major set-back in his TJ recovery, fracturing his elbow. This will require another visit to Dr. James Andrews and another surgery. The Nats outrighted him off the 40-man after the 2016 season and he elected free agency. He has re-signed with the Nats for 2017 and starts the year on the AAA D/L.

David Carpenter: shoulder injury, DFA’d, elected free agency and quickly signed a ML deal with Atlanta for 2016. However he was cut after just a handful of spring training games; maybe his injury is worse than we thought. He then bounced from Tampa to the Angels system for 2016, and then signed back with Tampa as a MLFA/NRI for 2017, but was cut on 4/4/17. Signed w/ Arizona in July 2017, pitching in AA Jackson.

Taylor Hill: Hill was DFA’d to make room for January 2016 signings and was outrighted to AAA, so he faces longer odds to get back to the majors at this point. If it comes to it, would you rather go with Hill or the likes of Voth or Giolito at this point? Hill finished out the year for AAA Syracuse with a 4.60 ERA in 27 starts, but I’d have to say he’s just an innings-eater/org guy now. Still with the team for 2017 but has been passed on the depth chart by several guys (Cole, Voth, Fedde) and faces long odds of a return to the majors with this organization. Started 2017 badly, demoted to AA.

Names recently removed: Fister (signed a $7M deal with Houston for 2016). Thornton (MLFA deal with San Diego and made 25-man roster). Burriss: signed MLFA with Philly and lead-off against the Nats in their first visit to Philadelphia in the new season. Added Stammen when he failed to make Cleveland’s 25-man roster in 2016. Removed Solis when he got called up to cover for injury to Belisle. Removed Martin when he got called up briefly on 6/27/16. Removed de los Santos when he got waived, picked up by Cincinnati and appeared for them mid Sept 2016. Removed all our 2015 prospect-types who all got 2016 call-ups: Turner, Difo, Severino, Grace, Cole. Stammen removed after he made the 2017 San Diego Padres out of spring training. Tyler Moore made the 2017 Marlins, and got a crucial hit against the Nats early in 2017 season, but was soon DFA’d.

Note: the one guy DFA’d mid-season 2015 by the Nats (Xavier Cedeno) got purchased by the Dodgers, who then sold him to the Rays 5 days later … and he had 61 appearances with a 2.09 ERA for Tampa Bay this year. Do you think maybe the team gave up on him too soon?

Outlook for 2015 Oblivion candidates: Most of these guys seem like they have little shot of re-gaining a MLB spot; the first 4 guys are likely retired at this point (Uggla, Johnson, Janssen, Jordan), and the other 3 (Barrett, Carpenter, Hill) face pretty long odds to make it back.

Favorite Nats to Oblivion Story: Dan Uggla. Uggla was released out of a $13M/year contract from Atlanta and the Nats picked him up for 2015, paying just a MLB minimum on him as middle infield cover/lottery ticket. Well, Uggla’s luck turned out pretty well as injuries shredded the Nats lineup and Uggla earned a 25-man roster spot. He played sparingly throughout April but had a massive homer in the epic April 28th come-from-behind 13-12 win over Atlanta, which sparked the Nats (who were just 7-13 at the time) to a 21-6 run. It was one of just two homers Uggla hit on the year (the other in the last game of the season/his career), and Uggla played less and less as the team got healthier. For the year he hit just .183, which was in line with what he had hit the prior to years, and he never got picked up after his “last hurrah” season. Uggla never seemed to recover from two separate concussions he suffered from HBPs (one in July 2012, another in ST 2013), never again hitting even the meager .220 he managed in 2012.

Nate McLouth, who signed an ill-advised 2-year deal to be our “veteran 4th outfielder” behind Denard Span … but who struggled in 2014 and then missed the entirety of 2015. The team bought out his 2016 option and as of this writing has not signed with a new team (not even a minor league deal). May have played his way out of the game. (Thanks to Karl in the comments for the reminder on McLouth).

Jeff Kobernus: Released by the team Mar 2015, played the rest of 2015 with SF’s A+ club in San Jose, MLFA for 2016. He never signed with anyone in 2016 and may be finished.

Scott Hairston: FA after 2014, sat out 2015. Signed for Chicago White Sox for 2016, but then was cut on 3/29/16. He did not pick back up with anyone for 2016, and at age 36 could be forced into retirement.

Nate Schierholtz: FA after 2014, signed w/ Texas but did not stay with club out of spring training. Played 2015 in Japan, then signed as a MLFA with Detroit in Dec 2015. Starting in AAA for Detroit 2016 but not a 40-man player. Subsequently released on 5/23/16 after hitting .246, did not pick back up for the rest of 2016. May be done.

Names removed since the last post: Kevin Frandsen (signed w/ SFG and appeared in 7 games in 2015), Ryan Mattheus (got one game with LAA, waived, then pitched the whole of 2015 in Cincinnati’s bullpen), Rafael Soriano (who finally signed with the Cubs in June but had just 6 appearances before getting released on 9/4/15, and Taylor Hill (who had 12IP across 6 games for the Nats in 2015). Added Nate McLouth after Karl noticed he was missing in the comments.

Outlook for 2014 Oblivion candidates: after a rough 2016 for all these players, only Schierholz really seems like he may give it another shot, but he never signed for 2017 and this list may be complete.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: I’ll go with Kobernus at this point, if only because he went to my dad’s Alma Mater (Cal-Berkeley) at a time where the program was threatened with the Axe (eventually donations resurrected the program in 2011). He’s an example of an odd fascination the Nats seem to have with good field-no hit upper round draft picks from Cal (see also Renda, Tony).

Yunesky Maya; MLFA with Atlanta AAA for 2014, then went to Korea where he got pounded for two seasons. Just signed a MLFA deal with Los Angeles Angels for 2016 and is pitching for AAA Salt Lake. He strained his elbow and missed a big chunk of the 2016 season, which was a missed opportunity for Maya as the Angels had very little SP depth. Did not sign for 2017.

Erik Davis; Nats AAA 2014 60 day D/L Tommy John surgery 2014, still on Nats D/L 2015. Outrighted off the 40-man in January 2016, assigned to AAA. Posted a 4.13 ERA in a full year of middle relief for Syracuse, with excellent K/9 ratios, but did not merit a 9/1 call up. Elected free agency after 2017, signed with Arizona.

Updates since last post: removed Jhonatan Solano went 1-20 for Miami in 2015 and may be a “Marlins to Oblivion” candidate going forward. Removed Chris Marrero after he made the 2017 San Francisco Giants team in a shock (four years in the minors between MLB at bats). Unfortunately he was DFA’d just a few weeks later after struggling to start the season.

Outlook for 2013 Oblivion candidates: The 2 active remaining guys face uphill climbs; none remain with the Nats. Davis is with a new organization for 2017 while Maya has not signed for 2017 and may be done.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Yunesky Maya, who was Mike Rizzo‘s first foray into the Cuban exile market. Signed to a 4yr/$8M deal, he was given several shots at the majors and never could capitalize. He arrived in the US with a wide arsenal of pitches but not a lot of swing-and-miss talent, and he ended up basically being a AAA starter. He spent the last three seasons as Syracuse’s lead starter (getting 22, 28 and 24 starts there in-between infrequent call-ups) and ended up with just one career MLB win for his $8M salary (making his one of the worst dollars-per-win contracts ever … even if it was “just” $8M). This whole paragraph is assuming that Maya never makes it back to the majors … but based on what he’s shown thus far combined with his advancing age, that seems like a likely end-result for the Cuban starter. As we speak, he has given up on minor league ball and has decamped for Korea, where he’s shown some good stats in limited appearances.

Christian Garcia: got added to the 40-man roster down the stretch of 2012 and provided some electric relief out of the pen, even making the playoff roster. Got hurt in ST 2013, went to the 60-day D/L, still hurt in 2014, and released in June of that year. Garcia never had bad stats … just too many injuries that he couldn’t overcome. (Thanks to commenter Justin for this reminder!)

Ryan Perry: Wash AAA/AA 2013, 2014, released by Washington in 2014, signed back with Detroit and played 2014-2015 with their AAA affiliate. Released mid 2015 by Toledo and never signed on again for 2015 or 2016; may be done.

Jesus Flores; signed ML deal with Los Angeles Dodgers for 2013, was with TB, KC for 2014, Miami AAA for 2015, but was released in July 2015 and never re-signed. Played Winter Ball 2015 never signed for 2016; may be done.

Brett Carroll: signed ML deal w/ Pittsburgh for 2013, Tor for 2014. Never signed for 2015, looks done.

Carlos Maldonado: Wash AAA 2013. Played Venezuelan Winter Ball for a number of years, then after no US-based organized ball for 2 seasons signed a ML deal with Texas in 2015 …and made their AA team as a 37-yr old. Still plugging away. In 2016 Maldonado again was assigned to Frisco, but was immediately put on the D/L and never appeared. In fact, he doesn’t even have a minor league at bat since 2013; is he just on a roster to serve as a bullpen catcher?

Updates since last post: Updates for Maldonado, who I can’t believe is still playing in the bus leagues at age 37. Added Christian Garcia after commenter Justin noticed he was missing.

Outlook for 2012 Oblivion candidates: Only Maldonado seems like he’s still technically “active,” but as a 38-yr old catcher who hasn’t even had an at-bat since 2013 the odds of him making it back are nil. The book seems closed on 2012.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Brad Lidge, who gave it one last shot and failed and didn’t keep trying. Sometimes, when you lose your stuff, its gone and gone fast. I’ll readily admit I thought the signing was a great one when it occurred but it just didn’t work out. I really hoped that Lidge would be a serviceable 7th inning guy and mentor to Drew Storen and Tyler Clippard, being one of the great closers of his day. It didn’t work out that way: the Nats released him on June 25th and he hung ’em up.

Cole Kimball — Nats 60-day DL in 2012, XST in 2013, DFA’d off 40-man roster. 2014 indy, NYY AA team. Threw 3.2 Innings of 14-ERA ball in the Mexican summer league in 2015. Does not seem to be on any 2016 rosters; may be done.

Brian Broderick — Stl AAA, waived now Nats AAA in 2012, AA in 2013. Indy ball 2014, Kansas City AAA 2015, where he had a pretty good season. He elected MLFA … and (oddly?) did not get picked up for 2016. May be done.

Atahualpa Severino — Nats AAA, DFA’d off 40-man in 2012, signed w/ KC for 2013, Atl AAA in 2014, LAA AAA in 2015 but he got cut and ended the year in the Mexican league. For 2016 he is again in the Mexican League, and had a strong season for Monterrey. Perhaps he gets another shot some-day. There’s always people looking for loogies.

Changes since the last post: none other than 2016 assignment updates; nobody’s gotten off this list in a while.

Outlook for 2011 Oblivion candidates: Just one guy still hanging on: Severino continues to throw albeit in his home country’s unaffiliated Mexican league.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Matt Stairs: He made the 2011 roster despite having almost no defensive capabilities and, as it soon became evident, almost no remaining abilities at the plate. He somehow hung onto his roster spot until August 1st despite having just one extra base hit in 74 at-bats on the year. I remember one game in particular; we were at the stadium going against the hated Phillies and they left Roy Halladay in to attempt to finish a shutout with a 3-0 lead (Game was on 4/13/11). Nats rally, score 2 runs to make it 3-2. Stairs comes up pinch hitting for Jerry Hairston with guys on 1st and 2nd with one out; he promptly watches three straight fastballs go right down the middle of the plate without moving his bat. I’ve never been so p*ssed at a player at the ball-park. Fellow Nats-to-Oblivion candidate Ivan Rodriguez then promptly struck out on 3 pitches as well, looking strike 3 into the mitt and then arguing vehemently with the ump over the game-ending call which gave Halladay the complete game victory. Those were the good ole days.

Willy Taveras; played AAA for Col in 2011, retired prior to 2012, back with KC AAA 2013. Mexican league 2014, 2015, Indy ball in 2015. He re-signed with Pueblo in the Mexican league for 2016 and played a full season, hitting .325.

JD Martin; in MIA org AAA 2012, in TB AAA 2013, in Korea 2014 but struggled, no 2015 stats. 2016 MLFA signing back with the team and re-making himself as a knuckleballer. Why not right? For 2017 he’s in XST to start but may get a shot in the AA or AAA rotations.

Changes since last post: none.

Outlook for 2010 Oblivion candidates: Two active players in the minors; Taveras and Martin. Martin seems likely to get another MLFA contract in 2017 to see if he can pan out as a knuckleballer.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Jamie Burke: The 2009 Nats were so thin at Catcher by the end of the season that we literally bought a spare catcher in Burke from Seattle so we could have some coverage at the end of the season. Burke re-signed on for 2010 and appeared in exactly one MLB game. He was released after the season and retired.

Elijah Dukes: released and never picked up for 2010. Arrested in 2011, 2012, out of baseball.

Alex Cintron; playing in Mexico 2012, nothing in 2013

Jorge Padilla; in SD org, AAA in 2012, nothing in 2013

Ron Villone, AAA all of 2010, 2011 playing indy ball, retired prior to 2012. He was scheduled to appear on the 2015 Hall of Fame ballot but was removed for some reason. Remains a pitching coach for the Cubs organization.

Julian Tavarez; retired after getting DFA’d in July 2009

Mike Hinckley: Tor org in 2011, retired prior to 2012

Steven Shell; KC org in 2011, retired prior to 2012

Victor Garate; MIL org and Indy ball in 2012, Mexican league 2013, 2014. Went to Japan for 2015 and had a great season. Back on the continent and pitching in the Mexican League for 2016; had 10 starts for Saltillo and was released. May be done.

Zack Segovia; in Det org AA in 2012, Mexican league/Indy ball 2013, Mexican League 2014. Picked up with San Diego’s AAA for 2015 but got hit. Pitching in the Mexican League for 2016 and had decent numbers as a middle reliever, but was released in June.

Changes since last post: none.

Outlook for 2009 Oblivion candidates: Still a couple guys active here, both in the Mexican league. Not likely to see any changes going forward.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Ron Villone, who proved that a crafty lefty with a halfway decent fastball can have a long career in this game. He had 63 appearances at age 39 for the 2009 Nats and got re-signed for 2010. He didn’t make the team though, labored in Syracuse the whole season and was released. Despite being 41 years old, he headed to Indy ball for one last shot but washed out after just a few outings in 2011.

It wouldn’t be a retrospective on poor Nats players if we didn’t briefly talk about Elijah Dukes though. I think its safe to assume that he’s the only guy on this list that has served more time in jail than has played in the minor leagues, attempting to get back to the show.

Outlook for 2008 Oblivion candidates: every remaining candidate is now out of baseball.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Odalis Perez, though I’m tempted to say either Mackowiak or Estrada, possibly the two worst FA signings of the whole Jim Bowden era (and that’s saying something). But nothing beats the Perez story. He was the Nats Opening Day Starter in 2008, and he was the first guy to get a start in the new Nationals Stadium. He pitched decently enough; in 30 starts he was 7-12 with a 4.34 ERA and a 99 ERA+ for a god-awful team. But apparently he got really pissed when the team only offered him a non-guaranteed Minor League deal for 2009. So he held out, the Nats said “fine with us” and released him, and nobody else picked him up. And he never played another game. I’m not sure if that was a sign that he was just that bad (not one team wanted to even give an opening day starter a look the subsequent year?), or if there was some sort of MLB general manager omerta that conspired against him. Either way, Perez never played again, not even in Winter Leagues as far as I could find. Sometimes a player has to swallow his pride, and Perez apparently could not.

Robert Fick: Cut from the Padres in ST 2008, full year indy league 2009, retired.

D’Angelo Jimenez: AAA all of 2008, 2009. Mexican league and Indy league 2010-2012

Tony Batista: Wash AAA 2008, then released

Michael Restovich: 2008 in Japan, AAA 2009-2011, retired

Brandon Watson: AAA 2008-9, indy league 2011, retired.

Mike Bacsik: 2008 AAA, 2011 indy league, now a broadcaster.

Jason Simontacchi; 2008 indy league, 2010 again.

John Patterson; cut in ST 2008, immediately signed w/ Texas but never played again.

Ryan Wagner: AAA 2008-9, released and presumably retired.

Arnie Munoz; went to mexican league, retired > 2010

Chris Booker: AAA in 2008, then retired/released.

Changes in last 12 months: none

Outlook for 2007 Oblivion candidates: every remaining candidate is now out of baseball.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Mike Bacsik, who was destined to be a career 4-A guy before Washington picked him up and gave him 20 starts in 2007. Bacsik was on his 6th minor league organization when he arrived in Syracuse and pitched his way up to the major leagues. He was overmatched badly; he had a 5.11 ERA and just a 3.4 K/9 rate. But he did get his moment in the headlines by giving up Barry Bonds‘ 756th career homer one night in San Francisco in August. Contrary to accusations on the topic, I do not believe Bacsik “served up” the homer. If you check the play index, Bonds hit the 7th pitch of the at-bat in a 3-2 count for that homer. Bacsik didn’t purposely give up a homer on the 7th pitch of an at-bat; he just ran out of pitches to show Bonds that weren’t going to get pulverized.

A quick comment though on John Patterson: I remember being absolutely shocked at his release in 2008’s spring training. He was cut on 3/20/08, right in the middle of Spring Training with no warning and having just thrown his Grapefruit innings. He was healthy, recovered from surgery, ready to be the ace of that staff and start showing off the potential that he showed in 2005 (you know, when he 4-hit the Dodgers with 13 punch outs and posted the best Game-Score performance in Nats history). He signed a ML deal with Texas after his release by the Nats, but he couldn’t answer the call and never appeared again, getting released in mid May. I guess his third arm surgery in 7 years just left him unable to compete at any level and he hung ’em up.

Outlook for 2006 Oblivion candidates: every remaining candidate is now out of baseball.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Joey Eischen, who bounced around the league in his 20s before settling in Montreal and moving south with the team. He was known to be a “character” in the clubhouse and to give good quotes to reporters (google “Joey Eischen quotes” and you’ll find some of his classics). By 2006 though the years had taken their toll on his shoulder; he had 19 walks in 14 2/3 innings through the end of May had blown his rotator cuff. The team put him on the 60 day D/L and called up Virginia-native Bill Bray. Eischen never got off that D/L; he was released in the off-season and never played again. He has been a pitching coach in the Colorado system since 2010.

C.J. Nitkowski; AAA in 2006, then went to Japan 2007-8, Korea 2009-10, back with the Mets AAA team in July 2012. Not signed for 2013. Was a blow-hard “I’m an ex baseball player and know more than you” Podcast host for Fox Sports with Rob Neyer until their cancellation. Made news in 2015 for his article on the Bryce Harper/Jonathan Papelbon where he quoted a number of anonymous MLBers who said that (paraphrasing) “Harper had it coming.”

Antonio Osuna: dnp in 2006, Mexican league 2007-9.

Tony Blanco; Nats minor leagues 2006-7, Colorado AA in 2008, in Japan from 2009-present. Hit 41 homers in 2013 for Yokohama but struggled in 2015, but got picked up by Orix and is on their 2016 roster. Not signed for 2017, may be done.

Changes in last 12 months: none

Outlook for 2005 Oblivion candidates: Tony Blanco is still playing in Japan, entering his 8th pro season there in 2016. But he has no 2017 assignment.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story:Rick Short, who got his MLB debut at the age of 32, after 11 very long seasons in the minors with many different teams. He got a couple of call-ups in June and July to provide cover, and then played out the string after a Sept 1 roster expansion call-up. In that off-season, he returned to Japan (where he’d played one full season prior), and played four more years in the Japanese League and retired in 2009.

Though it merits talking about a couple other guys here. Tony Blanco; he was a rule-5 draftee who the Nats carried the whole of 2005 so they could keep his rights. He was awful; he had a .177 batting average as the 25th guy off the bench. In 2006 he couldn’t even cut it in AA and played most of the year in High-A. After 2007 the Nats summarily released him from their minor league organization altogether. He found his calling though; he signed on in Japan in 2009 at age 27 and continues to play there today. You have to wonder if he may very well earn another MLB shot.

Jeffrey Hammonds was well known to Washington baseball fans by virtue of his pedigree with our northern neighbors in Baltimore; he was a 1st round draft pick in 1992 out of Stanford, broke in with the MLB team the following year and was a role player on the powerhouse Baltimore teams of the mid 1990s. He bounced around the league afterwards though, signing on with the newly relocated Washington franchise for the 2005 debut season but he hung ’em up after a slow start here. He was only 34 when he retired.

I slacked on minor league pitching analysis this off-season. But i’m as excited as ever to see the four full-season affiliate rosters announced ahead of the beginning of the minor league season this weekend. And i’m ready for another season of tracking minor league arms (kind of the bread and butter of this blog).

So lets take a look at the four staffs, guess the roles, and talk about the changes of the staffs from the end of last year til now. I’ll do these in four posts to break them out and get more content/discussion. First up: Syracuse.

And don’t forget the invaluable work of SpringfieldFan maintaining the Nats Big Board, now in its 12 season!

Note: in the below list, “missing” means that the player was on a 2016 roster, is still listed as active but is not found anywhere on a 2017 full-season roster as expected. Most are still sitting in Extended Spring Training (abbreviated XST throughout) with the intent of getting assigned as injuries or releases occur, but some may be release candidates. Other abbreviations I use often: MLFA == Minor League Free Agent, OOO = Out of the Organization.

As often happens with AAA squads, this group of players is about half home-grown (I count 8 drafted players out of the 17 on the roster) and half MLFA or acquired depth. And this group is missing more than a few names that we know will eventually be here and play major roles; Jeremy Guthrie probably slides into the rotation spot that Joe Ross is temporarily holding. But XST also currently holds players like John Lannan and Josh Outman, both of whom were MLFA signings this past off-season with the intent of providing AAA depth.

And as you often see in AAA, there’s huge turnover from last year. Eight guys on the AAA rosters at the end of last year are out of the organization now, 6 by free agency and two by the much discussed Adam Eaton trade. I was kind of bummed to see Paolo Espino go in particular, but I like the potential of former major leaguers like Jacob Turner and the aforementioned Guthrie (who looked pretty good in spring training, for what that’s worth).

Rotation guess: not too hard to squint and see this rotation go A.J. Cole, Austin Voth and Taylor Hill at the top. After that i’m assuming it goes Turner-Guthrie (after Ross gets called back up). Perhaps we’ll also see 2017 MLFA Kyle McGowin after he returns from whatever ailment has him on the D/L.

Reliever thoughts: I was happy to see the team re-sign Aaron Barrett; he may not ever contribute again but it was a good gesture to bring him back into the fold. Interested to see what Lannan can provide. The four relievers on the 40-man roster all seem to be on thin-ice with the org; are we expecting anything of value from any of Adams, Gott, Grace or Martin any more? I don’t mean to sound like a debbie downer, but at this point those four guys are my first four to get cut if space is needed. Its kind of amazing to me that this team has so little reliever depth at the upper level of the minors given the ridiculous amount of pitching they’ve drafted in the past few years.

Interestingly, Matt Swynenberg remains on the AAA restricted list, where he’s been since he retired on 5/1/15. I’m not sure why at this point the team doesn’t just release him, if only to clean up the official MILB.com roster on the web page.

Who am I focusing on: Voth, Turner, Adams and Gott to see if they’ve got any future value, Guthrie, Lannan when they get there, McGowin when he gets off of the D/L.

Fedde probably #1 arm in the system … and its tough after that. Photo via minorleagueball.com

Every year, Luke Erickson over at NationalsProspects.com does a crowd-sourced ranking of the Top 10 “bats” and “arms” in the Nats farm system (link to the “Arms” post)

This year, I had such a hard time deciding upon my top 10 arms for Luke’s survey that I thought it would be worth doing my own post on the subject, temporarily stealing Luke’s idea. I think its an interesting time for our farm system arm development; we’ve spent the off-season trading away a significant amount of arm depth, and what we have left made it kind of tough for me to even find 10 “arms” that were worth ranking. Furthermore, how do you really compare starters and relievers? Isn’t a mediocre starter prospect who has reached AAA better than a high-end reliever prospect in the lower minors? Is our best reliever prospect (Koda Glover) a “better” or “worse” prospect than a really good-looking starter who is in A-Ball (like a Tyler Watson?) How do you compare a good starter prospect in A ball with what looks like an org-arm in AAA? Its potential versus reality, ceiling versus floor. In the end, you have to make kind of a rolling judgement call to put PlayerA above PlayerB … leading to excellent arguments in the comments section.

So, taking these thoughts into account, here’s my top 10 ranked Arms, splitting guys into starters and relievers. My rules: a “starter” is someone who was “predominantly” a starter this year. A reliever is someone who, well, was a reliever and wasn’t getting starts unless there was some weird situation going on. And since the lowest levels generally were doing tandem starting, if you were clearly a “pitch every 5th day” guy even if you weren’t starting, then i’m calling you a starter for these purposes. This only comes into play with a couple of guys who were in and out of rotations this year; i’ve put them into the Relievers section.

My Nats top 10 Starters:

1. Erick Fedde: He’s clearly come back from TJ, dominated for most of 2016, and probably debuts in the later half of 2017.

(1a. A.J. Cole, if you still think he’s got prospect status. He exhausted his rookie status by service time in 2016 … but has yet to reach 50 IP in the majors, so Baseball America qualifies him as a prospect still. I don’t view him as a prospect anymore; to me he’s a 6th starter/long-man candidate for 2017).

2. Austin Voth: he’s more than earned it, has nothing to prove in AAA, and frankly should have gotten a 40-man addition last September and gotten innings instead of Mat Latos.

3. Tyler Watson: had a great season competing against guys well older than him; could be looking at a jump to high-A in 2017 and he’s yet to turn 20. I like his potential.

4. Weston Davis: I’m going with Davis over the more highly regarded (on prospect lists) Baez because of a slightly cleaner stat line. Davis had a nice 2.67 ERA in Short-A as a 20-yr old.

5. Joan Baez: Full year starting in Low-A as a 21-yr old, good K/9 numbers, some wildness. A step-up to High-A will clear the waters on him.

6. Matthew Crownover: great in Low-A, struggled in High-A. Should be in the Potomac rotation for 2017, may turn into a useful lefty reliever if he can’t maintain stats as a starter.

7. Jesus Luzardo: entirely based on pre-draft reputation; hopefully he comes back strong, but he’s several years away from even doing what Watson is doing.

8. Tyler Mapes: the fact that a 30th round draft pick is on this list is, well, the obvious evidence of the current thin-ness of our pitching depth. I love what Mapes has done, don’t get me wrong, but does anyone really expect him to become an impact player in the majors?

9. McKenzie Mills: I could see Mills a bit higher here, but honestly anyone in the 6-10 rank here could be argued to be higher or lower.

10. Andrew Lee: solid for Hagerstown before hitting the D/L. His spot here is assuming he didn’t blow out his rotator cuff or something that affects him longer term.

Honorable Mentions: Kyle McGowin, Yonathan Ramirez, Carlos Acevedo, Jaron Long, Austen Williams, Jefry Rodriguez. I could probably see arguments for Ramirez above perhaps Lee or Mills, but barely. I don’t really bother looking at GCL or DSL guys, so if you want to argue that someone who got 40 innings of complex ball is better than someone who put up stats in an A-ball league … well i’m going to argue with you :-).

So, clearly there’s a huge gap between the AAA-calibre guys at the top and Watson, both in terms of service time and in career minor league achievement. Our trades have resulted in this gap. There also seems to be a pretty significant potential gap right after Baez; you go from prospect to lottery tickets and org-guys pretty quickly it seems. Prior to these trades, I would likely have had Giolito 1, Lopez 2, Dunning right after Voth and perhaps Avila in discussions for being at the #10 spot. Still, that’s half of your best starter prospects gone in a couple of weeks.

Nats top 10 Relievers; these are going to be more heavily aligned towards guys who are near the top of the system, for obvious reasons. If you’re in A-ball and already a reliever … you’re in trouble unless you’re striking guys out at 12 K/9 clip … and we seem to have a habit of trading those guys (Hearn, Sanchez).

1. Koda Glover: for obvious reasons. Despite how much we’ve talked about him this year, he’s only got 19 MLB innings and still has rookie status by service time. We were mostly mystified by his drop-off of talent, until learning that he tore his hip labrum. I, like many others, like him for a future closer. Grow ’em, don’t buy ’em.

3. Bryan Harper: he was clearly moving himself ahead of other lefty options in AAA before getting hurt; lets hope he recovers from TJ and puts himself back on the map.

4. Jimmy Cordero: pretty solid AA numbers for two seasons running; i’d like to see him in AAA to see if he’s a bullpen option in the mold of an Aaron Barrett/Craig Stammen role.

5. Matt Grace: may be on the downslope of his Nats career, given that he wasn’t depended upon in 2016 and the Nats felt the need to flip a future Hall of Fame prospect to acquire a 5-week loogy rental. But he’s still an effective AAA reliever, which the rest of the guys below him cannot say.

6. Trevor Gott: our return bounty for Yunel Escobar was relatively effective for AAA this year, had good MLB numbers, but is anyone counting on him competing for the 2017 MLB bullpen? He and Grace are my “first two guys to go” off the 40-man if we need room right now.

7. Andrew Robinson: this MLFA signing put up great AA numbers and seems to be sticking around; I think he competes for the AAA bullpen.
8. Wander Suero: Another guy who put up nice AA numbers for the team this year as a RH middle reliever. He’s a bit old (25) and has been around the system forever (IFA signing in 2010), but should feature in AA or AAA this year.
9. Ryan Brinley: others have him higher based on his High-A dominance; he’s another Tyler Mapes-esque draft success story, a 2015 27th rounder who has rocketed up the system. I’d like to see what he can do in AA in 2017.
10. John Simms: another one of the Nats great 11th round picks, he really may be a starter, but for now he’s here. If he was being counted as a starter he’d probably be around the same ranking in the above list.

Austin Voth seems like the most likely rule-5 protection candidate. Photo mlb.com official

Here’s our annual ritual. Discussing the Rule 5 draft and the impact it has on rosters.

According to my Off-Season Baseball Calendar teams have just a few days (Nov 18th) to add players to the 40-man rosters ahead of the Rule-5 draft (which occurs the last day of the winter meetings (this year, at the Gaylord Hotel in the Maryland waterfront in early Dec).

As always, using the indispensable Nationals resource sites Draft tracker and the Big Board, and then looking up candidate acquisitions made via trade, here’s some thoughts on who might merit protection. The quick Rule-5 rules; any college-aged draftee from 2012 or before who isn’t already on the 40-man roster is Rule-5 eligible this coming off season, and any high-school aged draftee/International Free Agent from 2011 or before is newly eligible this year.

This year’s Draft class Stat overview posts were especially helpful too; here’s the 2013 version for College draftees and the 2012 version for high school-age draftees that are now Rule-5 eligible.

Newly Eligible 2013 draft College Players this year worth consideration for protection:

Jake Johansen: Only listed because of his draft round and bonus; Johansen has been a huge disappointment and will not be protected.

Austin Voth: Absolutely has to be protected and should have been added on 9/1 to get him some MLB innings.

John Simms: Put up solid numbers in AA and could feature in AAA this year, but isn’t a shoe-in to immediately contribute at the MLB level. Arguable whether he’s worth protecting. I would, but then again, i’m pro-prospect.

Not mentioned: several other draftees from this class that are marginal prospects right now: Cody Gunter, David Masters, William (Isaac) Ballou, Justin Thomas and Matthew DeRosier. All of these guys are scuffling or trending down in my analysis and are not risks for being drafted. Also did not mention any MLFA’s picked up that were 2013 draftees (Philip Walby, Jake Mayers) since they’re both in the low-minors.

None: the only HS-age draftee from 2012 that remains in our system is Lucas Giolito, who was added to the 40-man mid 2016 season.

Newly Eligible 2012 signed IFAs under consideration for protection:

Osvaldo Abreu: slashed .247/.328/.346as the starting SS for Potomac. Has neatly risen one level every year, so seems project-able to AA for 2017. I can’t see him getting drafted though considering he had a .674 OPS figure in High-A this year, even given that he could provide MIF cover for a MLB team. Has gotten some notice on prospect lists.

Rafael Bautista: slashed .282/.344/.341 with 56 stolen bases in 136 games playing mostly CF/RF for Harrisburg. A CF with that kind of speed who maintains his BA and OBP is worth protecting. Turns 24 before next season though.

Jefry Rodriguez: went 7-11 with a 4.96 ERA in 25 starts for Low-A Hagerstown. Rodriguez was on our lips for a while as a potential high end prospect … until he couldn’t succeed outside of short-season ball. 2016 was the third year he’s competed in Hagerstown and a 4.96 ERA isn’t going to cut it. He’s no threat to get drafted but probably keeps moving up the system.

Philips Valdez: went 12-7 with a 4.24 ERA across two-levels and 27 starts this year. He turns 25 in a few days. Despite being a AA starter, I’m not sure any team would really roll the dice on him in Rule-5. He “only” had 109 Ks in 152 IP this year, not exactly overpowering stuff. He also got hit in AA; i can see him starting in AA rotation again next season.

David Ramos spent most of 2016 on the D/L in Auburn and has never pitched above low-A ball. Not a candidate to be protected.

Not mentioned: several 2012 IFA signings throughout the lower levels of the system. This includes Andres Martinez, Darryl Florentino, Mario Sanchez, Brayan Serrata.

One other significant 2012 IFA signee is already on the 40-man: Reynaldo Lopez.

Rule-5 Eligible hold-overs of note: 2012 or prior college draftees still hanging out in the system, or 2011 and prior HS/IFAs.

Raudy Read: slashed .262/.324/.415in a full year catching in High-A. Promising, but he’s also already 23. Considering a rule-5 draft of a player like Read brings back memories of our own drafting of Jesus Flores.

Bryan Mejia: slashed .241/.279/.347 starting a full year playing 2B for High-A. Not a ton of power there; little chance of being drafted, no prospect buzz.

Jose Marmolejos (no longer -Diaz): slashed .289/.370/.475 between High-A and AA while earning his 2nd straight Nats minor league hitter of the year award. Good slugging percentage showing lots of gap power and some home-run power, but he’s already 1B-only and is 23.

Hector Silvestre: spent most of 2016 doing short stints/rehab assignments after missing all of 2015. 9 starts, 1.42 ERA amongst all A-ball affiliates. Looks promising for us, but no need for Rule-5 protection at this point.

Gilberto Mendez: nice numbers as a late-inning reliever for High-A (2.09 ERA, 8 saves). Turns 24 tomorrow and is an undersized RHP reliever; no risk of being picked.

Wander Suero (2010 IFA): 3-0 with a 2.44 ERA, 48/21 K/BB ratio in 55 AA innings. Solid numbers … but not a lefty so seems unlikely to get drafted. But he’s really no different than Simms, so he’s a maybe.

2012 College Draftees that are Rule-5 holdovers include Perez, Benincasa, Self, Pena, Orlan; none are really worth protecting. There are no 2011 HS draftees still remaining in the system. Other 2011 IFAs still around but not mentioned: Anderson Martinez, Diomedes Eusebio, Randy Encarnacion, Jorge Tillero. 2010 IFAs still hanging around not otherwise mentioned: Adderling Ruiz, Narciso Mesa. All are so low in the system they’re not worth mentioning.

So, who would I protect? As of today, the team has a ton of open slots on the 40-man roster to work with (32 of 40 as of this writing), but has to “save” some room for some clear FA/trade acquisitions. There’s also (arguably) a bit of wiggle room there; I see at least 4-5 additional guys on the current 40-man who could make way if need be.

Locks: Voth, Bautista

Maybes: Simms, Abreu, Read, Marmolejos, Suero, Valdez

Who would I protect? Probably Voth, Bautista and Marmolejos. I’d roll the dice leaving the likes of Abreu and Read unprotected despite their presence on prospect lists, and I’d roll the dice leaving Simms, Suero and Valdez unprotected since they’re all RHP and none has pitched above AA.

Thoughts? Opinions? Did I forget anyone and/or am I considering the wrong guys? These IFAs are always iffy in terms of eligibility, and some of the MLFAs are confusing too in terms of their status. So let me know if I’m missing someone.

MLBpipeline posted its Rule5 analysis and mentioned (for the nats) the four names we’re bouncing around here as well. We don’t have any super-high ranked prospects to protect like other teams.

11/18/16: official announcement: Voth, Bautista, Marmolejos, Read and Skole. Most surprised by Skole, who I didn’t even bother to do analysis about above thanks to his lack of a 9/1 call up this year.

For a fun trip down memory lane, here’s the same Rule 5 Protection analysis post for 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, and 2010.

Lets break down these current 31 guys and see what their payroll looks like projected for 2017 to see what kind of financial flexibility the team may have. Using the ever-awesome Cots MLB player salary site as a source here we go:

Players Already Under Contract for 2017 – 8

Werth, Jayson: $21,571,429

Scherzer, Max: $15,000,000

Strasburg, Stephen: $15,000,000

Zimmerman, Ryan: $14,000,000

Gonzalez, Gio: $12,100,000 (Option for 2017 picked up 11/3/16)

Murphy, Daniel: $12,000,000

Perez, Oliver: $4,000,000

Kelley, Shawn: $5,500,000

Subtotal: $99,171,429 <– Sum of Established Contracts for 2017

Note that I’ve not prorated any deferred money for Scherzer, Strasburg. Also, I’m not entirely sure what Werth did last year; was it to lower his 2016 salary by $10M and pay that later? I think so, so I don’t believe his 2017 salary was affected. I do not agree with the prorating that Cot’s does with the deferred dollars on Scherzer/Strasburg; I think the Lerners are treating it like payments later on so as to add financial flexibility now, so I count just the dollars owed in 2017 here. With these caveats, we come to the $99.1M figure due for these 8 players. Feel free to comment and correct me if I have this wrong.

Arbitration Eligible Players for 2017 – 6

I’m using MLB Trade rumors’ estimates instead of doing my own guesses since they’ve proven to be hyper accurate in years’ past, but will offer commentary on each figure.

Now, I’m on record saying that I think the team non-tenders Revere; I cannot imagine paying $6.3M for the production we got out of him last year. If the team thinks 2016 was an aberration and he can return to his 2015 form, then $6.3M might be a bargain (reminder: he hit .319 and had a 101 OPS+ figure in Toronto in 2015). However, for the time being i’m going with Revere getting non-tendered. I also think Harper’s going to sign a 2-year deal to buy out the rest of his Arb years, so I could see something like a 2yr/$25M deal at 10 and 15. I think the Rendon figure seems high (yes he had a solid year but $6.4 more than doubles his 2016 pay). I also have a hard time believing that Roark is going to net $6.1M in his first arb season, no matter how good he was last year.

So my working guess on this number is $35M less Revere’s $6.3 and less a bit more off of the Rendon & Roark numbers: call it $27,200,000.

Pre Arbitration MLB players – 17

Robinson, Clint $540,000

Treinen, Blake $536,000

Taylor, Michael $530,000

Ross, Joe $520,000

Gott, Trevor $518,000

Turner, Trea $507,500

Solis, Sammy $507,500

Glover, Koda $507,500

Severino, Pedro $507,500

Difo, Wilmer $507,500

Cole, A.J. $507,500

Goodwin, Brian $507,500

Grace, Matt

Martin, Rafael

Kieboom, Spencer

Giolito, Lucas

Lopez, Reynaldo

Subtotal: $6,196,500

The rest of the 40-man roster are pre-arbitration/team-assigned salaries. The current league minimum salary is $507,500; that might change, that might go up with the new CBA. For the time being, those players above who are ABOVE that figure are those who have played at the MLB level and have earned a nominal raise. These are guesses on these nominal salary increases, and then the rest of the guys are listed assuming they all make next year’s 25-man roster. Assuming no acquisitions, 12 of these pre-arb guys will be on the 25-man roster so that’s roughly $6M.

That figure represents about a $12M delta from last year’s working payroll figure of $145,178,886 (cot’s figure), but is about $5.7M higher than my “present day dollar only” figure for last year’s squad.

So, I’m not sure if the team has $12M to “spare” or will be looking to cut costs. Either way they’re nearly $30M below the 2015 payroll figure of $162M (Cots).

That’s not too bad. It also doesn’t account for any players received from trading Gonzalez and Espinosa; we could get back a starting catcher, pushing Severino to AAA, or we could get a utility infielder, obviating the need for Drew or Heisey.

Ramos may be the toughest off-season decision the team makes. Photo via wp.com

Another year, another playoff failure. Beat it to death already. Time to move on.

Lets talk about the post-season “To Do” list is for the Nats. We’ll have eventual posts to talk about other stuff, like Tender decisions, 40-man decisions ahead of the Rule5 draft, etc.

In this post, we’ll squint at the overall roster, look at blatant holes that will need filling, and discuss how they might get filled. Call it the cliche’s “General Manager for a day” post for the Nats this coming off-season.

Pending Free Agents we are waving good-bye to and the holes they thus leave (as per the invaluable Cots site at BaseballProspectus):

Mark Melancon: though i’d love to re-sign him … see later in the post.

Wilson Ramos: his injury is a shame for both player and team; he likely lost $50M in guaranteed FA money and the team lost a clear QO-compensation pick. He may not even be able to catch again, which dumps him to the AL, where his market is significantly cut thanks to the lessening of demand for bat-only DH types. Ramos is in serious career jeopardy right now; would he decamp back to the Nats on some sort of minimally guaranteed deal with performance incentives?

Stephen Drew: also one I hope re-signs; see later in the post.

Chris Heisey: one who I think is replaceable; look for another cattle call for RH bat options this coming spring training.

Matt Belisle: despite not making the NLDS roster, he was great for Washington this year and is worth another contract.

Mark Rzepczynski: He’s been very effective for us, and overall had a good 2016. His 2015 was awful, but he was good before that. Such is the life of specialist relievers.

Sean Burnett and Mat Latos: both given Sept 2016 tryouts; neither seem likely to be retained.

Jonathan Papelbon: worth mentioning if only for the payroll flexibility.

Guys who I think are clear Non-Tenders (probably a topic worth its own post).

Yusmeiro Petit: $3M option with $500k buyout for 2017; pitched poorly in 2016, didn’t make the post-season roster and should be replaceable on the roster by any number of our AAA starters.

Ben Revere: $6.25M salary this year, due an arbitration raise for 2017; struggled badly in 2016, lost his job to a guy who had about 2 week of CF experience and didn’t make the post-season roster.

Aaron Barrett: as heartless as it would be; he’s arb-eligible, still hurt, not likely to be ready by opening day and is completely replaceable as a RH middle reliever).

Total savings from these non-tenders: roughly $10M

Guys who I think its Time to Trade and the holes they thus leave. This also may be worthy of its own whole post.

Gio Gonzalez: I think the Nats can take advantage of a historically weak FA market for starters and Gio’s very friendly contract (two $12M options for 2017 and 2018) and move him. Yes he struggled this year, but if you look at what middle rotation innings eaters like him are getting these days, $12M is a bargain and he should fetch something we value. Moving him lets some of the guys who are clearly biting on the heels of a deserved rotation spot earn it for 2017 and thus the Nats “save” $11.5M in salary for the 2017 roster.

Danny Espinosa: As much as I have argued against this, his 2017 playoff performance has solidified in my mind the need to move him. He has his pros (a plus defender range wise, perhaps the best SS arm in the game, and serious power for a SS) and his cons (he hit just .209 this year, he strikes out at about a 30% clip, and his switch hitting capabilities are really in question). Nonetheless, there has to be some demand for a 25-home run capable plus defender SS in a lineup that can afford one crummy batting average at the bottom of the order. Perhaps an AL team that doesn’t have to also bat a sub .200 BA pitcher.

Total savings from these guys getting moved (not counting payroll received in return of course): $15-$16M.

So, adding up all three lines, assuming a steady payroll ceiling similar to this year’s and not counting arbitration raises (or Strasburg‘s new contract), you’d have roughly $47M with which to work. Not bad. Strasburg’s new contract will take $5M away from that flexibility (he made $10M last year, will make $15M next) and arbitration raises for Harper, Rendon and Roark will cost some cash, but that’s a post for another day. Lets call it $30M in available FA dollars when all is said and done.

So, assuming you’re even reading this far and havn’t already started commenting and arguing about that list of players, here’s the presumed holes that losing these 10 players leaves (in order of mention above):

Closer

Starting Catcher

Backup Utility Infielder

Backup RH bench bat/corner outfielder

6th/7th inning RH reliever

Loogy

Long Man/Spot starter/7th guy out of the pen

Backup Outfielder (CF capable)

Another 6th/7th inning RH reliever

#5 Starter

Starting Shortstop

(and not really counting the “loss” of Burnett and Latos for this discussion)

If we just filled these holes internally, what would it look like?

Closer: Make Shawn Kelley the closer and move up Treinen and Glover to be 8th inning guys. This leaves a hole later on in the pen for the middle RH relievers (see below)

Starting Catcher: promote Lobaton to starter and install Severino as the backup. Or switch them; honestly I like Severino’s at-bats; he looks confident. I don’t think Kieboom is ready for the show, so it makes sense to tender Lobaton for one more year.

Backup Utility Infielder: Difo becomes the first go-to guy to backup Turner/Murphy, but we’ll still need another utility guy.

Backup RH bench bat/corner outfielder: not much internally to go to; both the 2016 AAA and AA rosters are basically bereft of decent hitting prospects who might be candidates. We’ll be trolling the FA market here for sure. See the next section.

Two 6th/7th inning RH relievers: We have Gott and Martin on the 40-man; they could step up to replace these two guys like for like. Right now we have five RH relievers under contract for 2017 (Kelley, Treinen, Glover, Gott and Martin) to go along with two lefties (Solis and Perez); that’s not too bad of a bullpen to start out with, but could be improved. And this lineup doesn’t “really” have a long man, so you’d have to think one of Gott or Martin is in AAA to make room for a long-man (likely Martin at this point).

Loogy: its arguable whether we need another lefty with both Solis and Perez under contract, but they went most of the year this year with three. Matt Grace is still on the 40-man and would be an internal option.

Long Man/Spot starter/7th guy out of the pen: loser of #5 starter competition (see below)

Backup Outfielder (CF capable): Michael Taylor, in what likely is his ceiling from here forward.

#5 Starter: have Sprint Training 2017 tryouts for the #5 starter between Lopez, Giolito, Cole and even Voth (who I’m assuming by that time will be on the 40-man, protected ahead of this coming off-season’s Rule-5 draft). The winner is #5 starter, and one of the losers could be the long-man (well, if the loser is someone like Cole or Voth, who aren’t nearly as “big” of a prospect as Giolito). There’s also the distinct possibility that Lopez’s arm is turned into a closer at some point if he can’t turn over lineups. Check out Lopez’s 2016 splits, specifically SP versus RP and specifically the “Times Facing an Opponent” during the game; as a starter he struggles with the first time through the order, but not as a reliever.

And we’re missing one-two spots that don’t really have natural in-house replacements: another backup infielder and a starting Center fielder.

So, looking at that 25-man roster, where do we see areas of need? This feeds directly into the Off-season Priorities in the next section.

Quick diversion: Notice I didn’t say what position Bryce Harper is playing. Honestly, if Turner is vacating CF and we’re waving good-bye to Espinosa, then I think you have to put Harper in center. Here’s my main arguments for putting him in center (most of which are “anti-arguments” for those who for some reason think he cannot play center):

He’s young. He just turned 24 for crying out loud; there’s no reason he doesn’t have the youth or athleticism to handle center. Mantle did it while hitting for power. So did Mays. So did Griffey Jr and Aaron for the early part of his career. Trout plays center.

He’s got the arm (he has the 2nd best statistically rated arm in the majors in 2016), he’s got the speed (21 Stolen bases this year). And now he has years of OF experience on which to depend.

He’s played there before and played well. Here’s his career fielding stats from fangraphs.com: He had more than 700 innings in CF in 2012 and played it to a fantastic UZR/150 figure of 19.1 and 13 DRS. He was also great there in more limited sample sizes in 2013 and 2015. I leave out 2014 since that was his injury season and its clearly skewed as compared to his other seasons.

By putting Harper in Center, you vastly open open up the roster possibilities on the FA market. Look at the pending FA last at mlbtraderumors.com and compare/contrast the available options at CF versus LF/RF.

Top FA/Trade Priorities in 2016-2017 Off-season

Fantasy: I view these as not really possible but are listed as “fantasy” wish lists. Both fixate on moving unmovable contracts, so they’ll probably remain fantasies.

Upgrade 1B: dump Zimmerman and upgrade offensively at that position.

Upgrade LF: dump Werth and the last year of his deal and find a LF-capable bopper.

Acquire a leading CF: back up the farm system and dump it out for a leading center fielder. Charlie Blackmon or Andrew McCutchen are names often mentioned thanks to the precarious position their teams face. Mike Trout is the funny name you also hear since he’s so good he’s virtually untrade-able. Unlike Tom Boswell, and as discussed in comments here before, re-signing Ian Desmond to man CF poorly would not be my first choice either. I’d rather go with my “Bryce to Center” plan as laid out above.

Reality

Corner Outfielder. See above Harper->CF logic. If you want to splurge (and hurt your #1 divisional rival) sign Yoenis Cespedes. Or you could make a big splash and sign Jose Bautista to a 3-yr deal that ends the same time Harper hits FA. Werth remains serviceable in left, where he is mitigated defensively while Bautista still has value in RF. This is where I could see a big chunk of the $30M of FA dollars going. Lord knows we could use another clutch hitter in the middle of the order.

Closer: Above I said i’d love to re-sign Melancon, but more and more it seems like he’s going to be the 4th prize in a 4-closer musical chairs race. And he’s gonna get paid. And I’m not sure that the Nats are going to pay him. Per the same previously mentioned FA list there’s 5 “active” closers hitting FA: Melancon, Wade Davis, Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Sergio Romo There’s a whole slew of guys who are FA who are former closers though, names like Andrew Bailey, Joaquin Benoit, Santiago Casilla, Neftali Feliz, Jason Grilli, Greg Holland, J.J. Hoover, Jonathan Papelbon (haha, just making sure you’re still reading), Joe Smith, Fernando Salas, and Brad Ziegler. There’s probably even more frankly; these were just the ones who stood out as I read the list. Now, i’m not saying most of these guys are legitimate options, but some of these guys were perfectly good as closers and got “layered” by better closers. Take Ziegler for example: he was just fine for Arizona for a while, then got moved to Boston where he got demoted to 8th inning duties. I’d take him as a late-innings bullpen option.

Bullpen arm: middle reliever: Now, all that being said about Closers, I think maybe what the team does is install one of their existing options as “the closer” and then maybe hire one of these former closers to be an 8th inning/emergency closer kind of guy. That’s essentially what they got last year with Shawn Kelley and that’s worked out ok. I’d go after some of the ex-closer guys listed above, try to get them on an affordable deal (like halfway to closer money maybe) and that’d help off-set the losses of Melancon and Belisle.

Veteran utility infielder: as noted above, there’s not much in the farm system here. If you keep Espinosa and put him in this role, then this is moot .. but we’ve read over and again about his disposition when he’s not playing. This is kind of why I think we need to move him. He’s more valuable in trade than he is in this bench role. I hope the team re-ups with Stephen Drew honestly; he was solid, can cover all infield positions as needed, and can probably be had for a similar deal as last year. I’d be happy with Difo and Drew and wouldn’t be opposed to perhaps another veteran utility guy to pair with Drew and compete with Difo if we don’t think Difo is up to the task.

Less Likely:

Backup LF/IB bench bats: While I like Robinson and I think Heisey did a good job this year, one struggled and the other is a FA with no guarantee of returning. I absolutely expect to see another spring training cattle call of veteran bats of the LF/1B type to compete for roster spots. I’m appreciative of Goodwin‘s completely unexpected line at the plate upon his call up; do we think he’s a better lefty bat option off the bench than Robinson? I’m not sure. I also sense (based on anecdotal evidence read over the years) that Robinson is a clubhouse and teammate favorite, which might make it tougher to cut him when the time comes. Especially with a player’s manager type like Dusty Baker. I know this is where MartyC will cry about Matt Skole (likely to depart in MLFA this coming off-season) and I understand; its all about potential versus production and Skole never produced enough during these annual spring training “tryouts” to win his spot.

Catcher: Here’s where the most arguing may occur. I’m of the belief, after watching Severino down the stretch, that he could slide right into the starting spot right now. I thought he looked good at the plate, took confident at-bats, never looked over matched, and (here’s the kicker) *puts the ball in play!* This lineup has too many strikeouts; Severino struck out just 3 times in his 34 PAs down the stretch. That correlates to about 50 punch-outs over a 600-plate appearance season; that’s awesome. He was known for years for his defense, not his bat, so if he can provide even competent ABs he could be a starter. So i’m up for saving money on the FA market (where the catcher ranks are thin and the prices will get bid up badly as a result). Now, I could absolutely see us re-signing Wilson Ramos to an incentive-laden deal to keep him in house and hopefully get a good second half out of him. Why not? If he signs for $5-6M (basically his salary this year) and then has games played incentives that could take him up to $7 or $8M why wouldn’t he do that here instead of elsewhere? We go into the season with Severino and Lobaton with Kieboom in AAA and when Ramos shows up we (finally?) cut bait on Lobaton and have the two remaining guys platoon. I’d be onboard with that plan.

Loogy: Why spend money here? Solis and Perez ably fill the need. Do we need a third lefty in the pen at the expense of one of the aforementioned righties? I liked Rzepczynski this year; would he re-sign for reasonable dollars? Would you want him back? There’s several interesting names on the FA list; maybe one of them can be had for cheap.

What can we get in Trade versus buying on the FA market? Payroll implications?

I suspect that Gonzalez can fetch some seriously valuable resources. He’s an innings eating 4th starter who probably thrives in a pitcher’s park and is significantly less expensive at $12M/year than what something comparable costs on the FA market this year. So can he fetch maybe one MLB-ready player that fits a need above plus maybe one decent prospect? Is that too much?

Espinosa probably fetches less, unless you can get a GM to fall in love with his power/defense combo and somehow miss his BA and his K rate. By way of comparison, Yunel Escobar (a lesser defender with less power but more contact) fetched us two upper-level pitching prospects in Trevor Gott and Michael Brady (by upper-level I mean AA/AAA level, not top 100 prospects). I’d guess that Espinosa could fetch a bit more since he plays a premium position. So that could end up being more of the needs above plus maybe an additional prospect.

But who knows what we can and cannot get. In Mike Rizzo we trust when it comes to trades; no matter how much we bitch about prospects heading out the door, you’re really hard pressed to find a trade where Rizzo got the short end of the bargain or “lost” the deal. So lets see what he can do.

Payroll implications. I think we could get a $20M/yr corner OF slugger, a former closer at like $6M/year, resign Ramos at $5M, find a utility infielder in the Drew $3M/year range, and then sign a couple of guys to $1.25M conditional deals like what Belisle and Heisey got and fit right into the $145M payroll budget, even after arbitration raises.

Well; that’s a lot to argue about. Maybe I should have split this up. But let the discussions begin!

Note: this is a recurring post, and large chunks of the older material is recycled. I’ve updated the research for older players as needed, getting 2015 updates for everyone on this list still playing. See here for 2014’s version, 2013’s version, and 2012’s version of this post.

Even though I know most of this data is repeated from last year, I still find myself reading the whole way down just for a crazy trip down memory lane each time I do this post.

Background: many years ago (November 2010) Mark Zuckerman initially posted a fascinating analysis he titled “From Nats to Oblivion.” It chronicled the astoundingly high number of players that the early incarnations of the Nats were using who, once the Nats released them, never again appeared in a MLB game. I thought the analysis was so interesting that I kept up the same data and have been keeping it up-to-date with the whereabouts of Nats-to-Oblivion candidates ever since. So with apologies to Zuckerman for stealing his original idea, here’s an interesting visit to the Nats darker past.

It is nearly impossible for a team to field an entire year’s worth of players who will not fall into this “Oblivion” category. Every MLB team has guys playing out the string or near retirement, and every MLB team calls up guys through out the season from the minors who eventually show themselves as unable to compete on the MLB level and who never make it back. So a 0% oblivion measure isn’t a goal. The best this team has done is 4 players (the 2013 team). I don’t think the 2015 team will get that low.

For your reminiscing pleasure, here is the summary data updated to the 2014 team:

Look at the 2006 season; 35% of the players who played for the team that year never played another Major League game. That’s still astounding to me. Read on for a detailed look back at some of the very bad players that have put in significant time for this team.

Here’s my entirely too early list of Nats to Oblivion candidates from the 2015 Nats. Odds are that this list will be halved by June 1 of 2016 season. The candidates are listed from most likely to least likely to stay on this list.

Names recently removed: Fister (signed a $7M deal with Houston for 2016). Thornton (MLFA deal with San Diego and made 25-man roster). Burriss: signed MLFA with Philly and lead-off against the Nats in their first visit to Philadelphia in the new season. Added Stammen when he failed to make Cleveland’s 25-man roster in 2016. Removed Solis when he got called up to cover for injury to Belisle. Removed Martin when he got called up briefly on 6/27/16. Removed de los Santos when he got waived, picked up by Cincinnati and appeared for them mid Sept 2016. Removed all our 2015 prospect-types who all got 2016 call-ups: Turner, Difo, Severino, Grace, Cole.

Dan Uggla: The Nats were probably his last stand chance in the majors; hit just .183 and was given just 17 ABs the last two months of the season. Seems unlikely to pick up with a team in 2016 and may be done professionally.

Reed Johnson: Got picked back up on a MLFA deal by Washington thanks to his utility capabilities, especially since he did show he was recovered from his 2015 injury. But age is working against him, and the team signed several utility guys to 40-man deals, making it hard on Johnson to get back onto the roster. Johnson did not make the team out of spring and was released on 4/2/16. He did not pick up with anyone for 2016 and at age 39 may be retired.

Casey Janssen: Signed a ML deal with San Diego for 2016 but was released in late Spring Training. Picked up with Boston in June of 2016, pitched a bit for their Short-A and AAA teams then was released in early August 2016. At age 35, he may be done.

Taylor Jordan: passed on the depth chart by guys getting signed (Scherzer), acquired in trade (Ross), and guys just being in the right place at the right time (Roark). Just like he saw time in 2015 in brief spurts, he likely will again in 2016, but seems like a long shot to be a permanent part of this franchise’ rotation. In June of 2016, he had a second TJ surgery … and then was released by the club on 6/28/16 to correspond to the Giolito contract addition. Man, that seems kind of cold to release a guy just after surgery, but his odds of making it back to the majors just took a significant hit.

David Carpenter: shoulder injury, DFA’d, elected free agency and quickly signed a ML deal with Atlanta for 2016. However he was cut after just a handful of spring training games; maybe his injury is worse than we thought. Picked backup on a ML deal with the Los Angeles Angels in May 2016 (which makes sense since they’ve lost most of their pitchers). Was released from AAA Salt Lake in Mid June 2016 and did not pick back up. May be finished.

Taylor Hill: Hill was DFA’d to make room for January 2016 signings and was outrighted to AAA, so he faces longer odds to get back to the majors at this point. If it comes to it, would you rather go with Hill or the likes of Voth or Giolito at this point? Hill finished out the year for AAA Syracuse with a 4.60 ERA in 27 starts, but I’d have to say he’s just an innings-eater/org guy now.

Tyler Moore; hit just .203 in 2015 yet stayed on the active roster the whole year thanks to our ridiculous number of injuries. A DFA candidate who never has come close to his rookie year production and now has a career .228 BA in 649 PAs. Signed for 2016, but then waived, outrighted to AAA and traded to Atlanta towards the end of spring training. Moore missed most of the 2016 season for AAA Gwinnett with injury and did not appear in the majors.

Craig Stammen: non-tendered after injuring his arm and missing most of 2015; signed a ML deal with Cleveland in 2016 and did not make the team out of camp. Immediately sent to the AAA D/L list. He missed a couple of months, rehabbed in AA and spent the rest of the year for Cleveland’s AAA team in Columbus.

Aaron Barrett: the odds of him turning into Cole Kimball seems small; an elbow is not a shoulder. But until he recovers from his 2015 surgery, he’s an Oblivion candidate. He’ll sit on the 60-day D/L for most of 2016. In June of 2016, he had a major set-back in his TJ recovery, fracturing his elbow. This will require another visit to Dr. James Andrews and another surgery.

Note: the one guy DFA’d mid-season 2015 by the Nats (Xavier Cedeno) got purchased by the Dodgers, who then sold him to the Rays 5 days later … and he had 61 appearances with a 2.09 ERA for Tampa Bay this year. Do you think maybe the team gave up on him too soon?

Outlook for 2015 Oblivion candidates: Most of these guys seem like they have little shot of re-gaining a MLB spot; the first 5 guys are likely retired at this point, the next three (Hill, Moore, Stammen) are off 40-mans and not really pushing for a promotion with their AAA stats, and Barrett faces another year of elbow surgery recovery.

Favorite Nats to Oblivion Story: Dan Uggla. Uggla was released out of a $13M/year contract from Atlanta and the Nats picked him up for 2015, paying just a MLB minimum on him as middle infield cover/lottery ticket. Well, Uggla’s luck turned out pretty well as injuries shredded the Nats lineup and Uggla earned a 25-man roster spot. He played sparingly throughout April but had a massive homer in the epic April 28th come-from-behind 13-12 win over Atlanta, which sparked the Nats (who were just 7-13 at the time) to a 21-6 run. It was one of just two homers Uggla hit on the year (the other in the last game of the season/his career), and Uggla played less and less as the team got healthier. For the year he hit just .183, which was in line with what he had hit the prior to years, and he never got picked up after his “last hurrah” season. Uggla never seemed to recover from two separate concussions he suffered from HBPs (one in July 2012, another in ST 2013), never again hitting even the meager .220 he managed in 2012.

Nate McLouth, who signed an ill-advised 2-year deal to be our “veteran 4th outfielder” behind Denard Span … but who struggled in 2014 and then missed the entirety of 2015. The team bought out his 2016 option and as of this writing has not signed with a new team (not even a minor league deal). May have played his way out of the game. (Thanks to Karl in the comments for the reminder on McLouth).

Jeff Kobernus: Released by the team Mar 2015, played the rest of 2015 with SF’s A+ club in San Jose, MLFA for 2016. He never signed with anyone in 2016 and may be finished.

Scott Hairston: FA after 2014, sat out 2015. Signed for Chicago White Sox for 2016, but then was cut on 3/29/16. He did not pick back up with anyone for 2016, and at age 36 could be forced into retirement.

Nate Schierholtz: FA after 2014, signed w/ Texas but did not stay with club out of spring training. Played 2015 in Japan, then signed as a MLFA with Detroit in Dec 2015. Starting in AAA for Detroit 2016 but not a 40-man player. Subsequently released on 5/23/16 after hitting .246, did not pick back up for the rest of 2016. He’s only 32, so he may still give it a shot in 2017.

Names removed since the last post: Kevin Frandsen (signed w/ SFG and appeared in 7 games in 2015), Ryan Mattheus (got one game with LAA, waived, then pitched the whole of 2015 in Cincinnati’s bullpen), Rafael Soriano (who finally signed with the Cubs in June but had just 6 appearances before getting released on 9/4/15, and Taylor Hill (who had 12IP across 6 games for the Nats in 2015). Added Nate McLouth after Karl noticed he was missing in the comments.

Outlook for 2014 Oblivion candidates: after a rough 2016 for all these players, only Schierholz really seems like he has a shot at even a ST invite for 2017. The rest are likely done.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: I’ll go with Kobernus at this point, if only because he went to my dad’s Alma Mater (Cal-Berkeley) at a time where the program was threatened with the Axe (eventually donations resurrected the program in 2011). He’s an example of an odd fascination the Nats seem to have with good field-no hit upper round draft picks from Cal (see also Renda, Tony).

Yunesky Maya; MLFA with Atlanta AAA for 2014, then went to Korea where he got pounded for two seasons. Just signed a MLFA deal with Los Angeles Angels for 2016 and is pitching for AAA Salt Lake. He strained his elbow and missed a big chunk of the 2016 season, which was a missed opportunity for Maya as the Angels had very little SP depth.

Chris Marrero: MLFA, signed w/ Baltimore AAA 2014, played briefly for the White Sox’s AAA affiliate in 2015. He’s still out there, playing in the 2015 Venezuelan winter league. Signed back with Boston’s AAA affiliate for 2016. He had a strong 2016 season for Pawtucket, hitting 23 homers but did not get called up.

Erik Davis; Nats AAA 2014 60 day D/L Tommy John surgery 2014, still on Nats D/L 2015. Outrighted off the 40-man in January 2016, assigned to AAA. Posted a 4.13 ERA in a full year of middle relief for Syracuse, with excellent K/9 ratios, but did not merit a 9/1 call up.

Updates since last post: removed Jhonatan Solano went 1-20 for Miami in 2015 and may be a “Marlins to Oblivion” candidate going forward.

Outlook for 2013 Oblivion candidates: The 4 remaining guys face uphill climbs; only Davis remains with the Nationals but none are on 40-man rosters. Maya and Marrero are hanging on though and may get shots based on decent 2016 seasons in AAA.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Yunesky Maya, who was Mike Rizzo‘s first foray into the Cuban exile market. Signed to a 4yr/$8M deal, he was given several shots at the majors and never could capitalize. He arrived in the US with a wide arsenal of pitches but not a lot of swing-and-miss talent, and he ended up basically being a AAA starter. He spent the last three seasons as Syracuse’s lead starter (getting 22, 28 and 24 starts there in-between infrequent call-ups) and ended up with just one career MLB win for his $8M salary (making his one of the worst dollars-per-win contracts ever … even if it was “just” $8M). This whole paragraph is assuming that Maya never makes it back to the majors … but based on what he’s shown thus far combined with his advancing age, that seems like a likely end-result for the Cuban starter. As we speak, he has given up on minor league ball and has decamped for Korea, where he’s shown some good stats in limited appearances.

Christian Garcia: got added to the 40-man roster down the stretch of 2012 and provided some electric relief out of the pen, even making the playoff roster. Got hurt in ST 2013, went to the 60-day D/L, still hurt in 2014, and released in June of that year. Garcia never had bad stats … just too many injuries that he couldn’t overcome. (Thanks to commenter Justin for this reminder!)

Ryan Perry: Wash AAA/AA 2013, 2014, released by Washington in 2014, signed back with Detroit and played 2014-2015 with their AAA affiliate. Released mid 2015 by Toledo and never signed on again for 2015 or 2016; may be done.

Jesus Flores; signed ML deal with Los Angeles Dodgers for 2013, was with TB, KC for 2014, Miami AAA for 2015, but was released in July 2015 and never re-signed. Played Winter Ball 2015 never signed for 2016; may be done.

Brett Carroll: signed ML deal w/ Pittsburgh for 2013, Tor for 2014. Never signed for 2015, looks done.

Carlos Maldonado: Wash AAA 2013. Played Venezuelan Winter Ball for a number of years, then after no US-based organized ball for 2 seasons signed a ML deal with Texas in 2015 …and made their AA team as a 37-yr old. Still plugging away. In 2016 Maldonado again was assigned to Frisco, but was immediately put on the D/L and never appeared. In fact, he doesn’t even have a minor league at bat since 2013; is he just on a roster to serve as a bullpen catcher?

Updates in last 12 months: Updates for Maldonado, who I can’t believe is still playing in the bus leagues at age 37. Added Christian Garcia after Justin noticed he was missing in the comments.

Outlook for 2012 Oblivion candidates: Only Maldonado seems like he’s still technically “active,” but as a 38-yr old catcher who hasn’t even had an at-bat since 2013 the odds of him making it back are nil. The book seems closed on 2012.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Brad Lidge, who gave it one last shot and failed and didn’t keep trying. Sometimes, when you lose your stuff, its gone and gone fast. I’ll readily admit I thought the signing was a great one when it occurred but it just didn’t work out. I really hoped that Lidge would be a serviceable 7th inning guy and mentor to Drew Storen and Tyler Clippard, being one of the great closers of his day. It didn’t work out that way: the Nats released him on June 25th and he hung ’em up.

Cole Kimball — Nats 60-day DL in 2012, XST in 2013, DFA’d off 40-man roster. 2014 indy, NYY AA team. Threw 3.2 Innings of 14-ERA ball in the Mexican summer league in 2015. Does not seem to be on any 2016 rosters; may be done.

Brian Broderick — Stl AAA, waived now Nats AAA in 2012, AA in 2013. Indy ball 2014, Kansas City AAA 2015, where he had a pretty good season. He elected MLFA … and (oddly?) did not get picked up for 2016. May be done.

Atahualpa Severino — Nats AAA, DFA’d off 40-man in 2012, signed w/ KC for 2013, Atl AAA in 2014, LAA AAA in 2015 but he got cut and ended the year in the Mexican league. For 2016 he is again in the Mexican League, and had a strong season for Monterrey. Perhaps he gets another shot some-day. There’s always people looking for loogies.

Changes in the last 12 months: none other than 2016 assignment updates; nobody’s gotten off this list in a while.

Outlook for 2011 Oblivion candidates: Just one guy still hanging on: Severino continues to throw albeit in his home country’s unaffiliated Mexican league.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Matt Stairs: He made the 2011 roster despite having almost no defensive capabilities and, as it soon became evident, almost no remaining abilities at the plate. He somehow hung onto his roster spot until August 1st despite having just one extra base hit in 74 at-bats on the year. I remember one game in particular; we were at the stadium going against the hated Phillies and they left Roy Halladay in to attempt to finish a shutout with a 3-0 lead (Game was on 4/13/11). Nats rally, score 2 runs to make it 3-2. Stairs comes up pinch hitting for Jerry Hairston with guys on 1st and 2nd with one out; he promptly watches three straight fastballs go right down the middle of the plate without moving his bat. I’ve never been so p*ssed at a player at the ball-park. Fellow Nats-to-Oblivion candidate Ivan Rodriguez then promptly struck out on 3 pitches as well, looking strike 3 into the mitt and then arguing vehemently with the ump over the game-ending call which gave Halladay the complete game victory. Those were the good ole days.

JD Martin; in MIA org AAA 2012, in TB AAA 2013, in Korea 2014 but struggled, no 2015 stats. 2016 MLFA signing back with the team and re-making himself as a knuckleballer. Why not right?

Willy Taveras; played AAA for Col in 2011, retired prior to 2012, back with KC AAA 2013. Mexican league 2014, 2015, Indy ball in 2015. He re-signed with Pueblo in the Mexican league for 2016 and played a full season, hitting .325.

Changes in last 12 months: none.

Outlook for 2010 Oblivion candidates: Two active players in the minors; Taveras and Martin. Martin seems likely to get another MLFA contract in 2017 to see if he can pan out as a knuckleballer.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Jamie Burke: The 2009 Nats were so thin at Catcher by the end of the season that we literally bought a spare catcher in Burke from Seattle so we could have some coverage at the end of the season. Burke re-signed on for 2010 and appeared in exactly one MLB game. He was released after the season and retired.

Elijah Dukes: released and never picked up for 2010. Arrested in 2011, 2012, out of baseball.

Alex Cintron; playing in Mexico 2012, nothing in 2013

Jorge Padilla; in SD org, AAA in 2012, nothing in 2013

Ron Villone, AAA all of 2010, 2011 playing indy ball, retired prior to 2012. He was scheduled to appear on the 2015 Hall of Fame ballot but was removed for some reason. Remains a pitching coach for the Cubs organization.

Julian Tavarez; retired after getting DFA’d in July 2009

Mike Hinckley: Tor org in 2011, retired prior to 2012

Steven Shell; KC org in 2011, retired prior to 2012

Victor Garate; MIL org and Indy ball in 2012, Mexican league 2013, 2014. Went to Japan for 2015 and had a great season. Back on the continent and pitching in the Mexican League for 2016; had 10 starts for Saltillo and was released. May be done.

Zack Segovia; in Det org AA in 2012, Mexican league/Indy ball 2013, Mexican League 2014. Picked up with San Diego’s AAA for 2015 but got hit. Pitching in the Mexican League for 2016 and had decent numbers as a middle reliever, but was released in June.

Changes in last 12 months: none.

Outlook for 2009 Oblivion candidates: Still a couple guys active here, both in the Mexican league. Not likely to see any changes going forward.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Ron Villone, who proved that a crafty lefty with a halfway decent fastball can have a long career in this game. He had 63 appearances at age 39 for the 2009 Nats and got re-signed for 2010. He didn’t make the team though, labored in Syracuse the whole season and was released. Despite being 41 years old, he headed to Indy ball for one last shot but washed out after just a few outings in 2011.

It wouldn’t be a retrospective on poor Nats players if we didn’t briefly talk about Elijah Dukes though. I think its safe to assume that he’s the only guy on this list that has served more time in jail than has played in the minor leagues, attempting to get back to the show.

Outlook for 2008 Oblivion candidates: every remaining candidate is now out of baseball.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Odalis Perez, though I’m tempted to say either Mackowiak or Estrada, possibly the two worst FA signings of the whole Jim Bowden era (and that’s saying something). But nothing beats the Perez story. He was the Nats Opening Day Starter in 2008, and he was the first guy to get a start in the new Nationals Stadium. He pitched decently enough; in 30 starts he was 7-12 with a 4.34 ERA and a 99 ERA+ for a god-awful team. But apparently he got really pissed when the team only offered him a non-guaranteed Minor League deal for 2009. So he held out, the Nats said “fine with us” and released him, and nobody else picked him up. And he never played another game. I’m not sure if that was a sign that he was just that bad (not one team wanted to even give an opening day starter a look the subsequent year?), or if there was some sort of MLB general manager omerta that conspired against him. Either way, Perez never played again, not even in Winter Leagues as far as I could find. Sometimes a player has to swallow his pride, and Perez apparently could not.

Robert Fick: Cut from the Padres in ST 2008, full year indy league 2009, retired.

D’Angelo Jimenez: AAA all of 2008, 2009. Mexican league and Indy league 2010-2012

Tony Batista: Wash AAA 2008, then released

Michael Restovich: 2008 in Japan, AAA 2009-2011, retired

Brandon Watson: AAA 2008-9, indy league 2011, retired.

Mike Bacsik: 2008 AAA, 2011 indy league, now a broadcaster.

Jason Simontacchi; 2008 indy league, 2010 again.

John Patterson; cut in ST 2008, immediately signed w/ Texas but never played again.

Ryan Wagner: AAA 2008-9, released and presumably retired.

Arnie Munoz; went to mexican league, retired > 2010

Chris Booker: AAA in 2008, then retired/released.

Changes in last 12 months: none

Outlook for 2007 Oblivion candidates: every remaining candidate is now out of baseball.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Mike Bacsik, who was destined to be a career 4-A guy before Washington picked him up and gave him 20 starts in 2007. Bacsik was on his 6th minor league organization when he arrived in Syracuse and pitched his way up to the major leagues. He was overmatched badly; he had a 5.11 ERA and just a 3.4 K/9 rate. But he did get his moment in the headlines by giving up Barry Bonds‘ 756th career homer one night in San Francisco in August. Contrary to accusations on the topic, I do not believe Bacsik “served up” the homer. If you check the play index, Bonds hit the 7th pitch of the at-bat in a 3-2 count for that homer. Bacsik didn’t purposely give up a homer on the 7th pitch of an at-bat; he just ran out of pitches to show Bonds that weren’t going to get pulverized.

A quick comment though on John Patterson: I remember being absolutely shocked at his release in 2008’s spring training. He was cut on 3/20/08, right in the middle of Spring Training with no warning and having just thrown his Grapefruit innings. He was healthy, recovered from surgery, ready to be the ace of that staff and start showing off the potential that he showed in 2005 (you know, when he 4-hit the Dodgers with 13 punch outs and posted the best Game-Score performance in Nats history). He signed a ML deal with Texas after his release by the Nats, but he couldn’t answer the call and never appeared again, getting released in mid May. I guess his third arm surgery in 7 years just left him unable to compete at any level and he hung ’em up.

Outlook for 2006 Oblivion candidates: every remaining candidate is now out of baseball.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story: Joey Eischen, who bounced around the league in his 20s before settling in Montreal and moving south with the team. He was known to be a “character” in the clubhouse and to give good quotes to reporters (google “Joey Eischen quotes” and you’ll find some of his classics). By 2006 though the years had taken their toll on his shoulder; he had 19 walks in 14 2/3 innings through the end of May had blown his rotator cuff. The team put him on the 60 day D/L and called up Virginia-native Bill Bray. Eischen never got off that D/L; he was released in the off-season and never played again. He has been a pitching coach in the Colorado system since 2010.

C.J. Nitkowski; AAA in 2006, then went to Japan 2007-8, Korea 2009-10, back with the Mets AAA team in July 2012. Not signed for 2013. Was a blow-hard “I’m an ex baseball player and know more than you” Podcast host for Fox Sports with Rob Neyer until their cancellation. Made news in 2015 for his article on the Bryce Harper/Jonathan Papelbon where he quoted a number of anonymous MLBers who said that (paraphrasing) “Harper had it coming.”

Antonio Osuna: dnp in 2006, Mexican league 2007-9.

Tony Blanco; Nats minor leagues 2006-7, Colorado AA in 2008, in Japan from 2009-present. Hit 41 homers in 2013 for Yokohama but struggled in 2015, but got picked up by Orix and is on their 2016 roster.

Changes in last 12 months: none

Outlook for 2005 Oblivion candidates: Tony Blanco is still playing in Japan, entering his 8th pro season there in 2016.

Favorite Nats-to-Oblivion story:Rick Short, who got his MLB debut at the age of 32, after 11 very long seasons in the minors with many different teams. He got a couple of call-ups in June and July to provide cover, and then played out the string after a Sept 1 roster expansion call-up. In that off-season, he returned to Japan (where he’d played one full season prior), and played four more years in the Japanese League and retired in 2009.

Though it merits talking about a couple other guys here. Tony Blanco; he was a rule-5 draftee who the Nats carried the whole of 2005 so they could keep his rights. He was awful; he had a .177 batting average as the 25th guy off the bench. In 2006 he couldn’t even cut it in AA and played most of the year in High-A. After 2007 the Nats summarily released him from their minor league organization altogether. He found his calling though; he signed on in Japan in 2009 at age 27 and continues to play there today. You have to wonder if he may very well earn another MLB shot.

Jeffrey Hammonds was well known to Washington baseball fans by virtue of his pedigree with our northern neighbors in Baltimore; he was a 1st round draft pick in 1992 out of Stanford, broke in with the MLB team the following year and was a role player on the powerhouse Baltimore teams of the mid 1990s. He bounced around the league afterwards though, signing on with the newly relocated Washington franchise for the 2005 debut season but he hung ’em up after a slow start here. He was only 34 when he retired.

For some historical perspective, here’s 2013’s version (featuring Pedro Encarnaction), 2012’s version (Aaron Barrett was the feature pitcher) and 2011’s version (Taylor Jordan the feature pitcher) of this post specifically for Hagerstown/Low-A. Had I done this post in 2014 I would have “featured” Lucas Giolito, who dominated in 2014 for the suns (10-2, 2.20 ERA).

Note; while its relatively easy to do reviews for the upper levels of the system, once we get lower we’re usually talking about a lot of short sample sizes. I’ll depend on text from my “draft class” write-ups where appropriate.

Hagerstown starters. The rotation started the season with AWilliams, Bach*, LReyes, Van Orden, Valdez. 18 guys got starts in 2015. Here’s an overview of the starters used, starting with the original five starters, going all the way to the rehab spot starts.

Austen Williamsblitzed the Sally league (8-1 with a 2.10 ERA) and forced a promotion to Potomac mid-season, where he continued pitching well. See High-A write-up for more. Outlook for Next season: High-A rotation to start with an eye on quick promotion.

Connor Bach: Posted a 6-4, 3.85 ERA with 106/69 K/BB in 110 ip (20 starts) in Low A as a member of the rotation for much of the season. 4.08 fip, .311 babip. Not too shabby for a 21st round senior sign from a relatively unknown baseball school (VMI). Perhaps too many walks, but nearly a K/inning in full-season ball portends well for his future. At the very least he could move up as a lefty specialist. Outlook for Next season: High-A rotation.

Luis Reyeswent 6-7 with a 4.82 ERA in 24 starts and 117.2 IP, both leading the Hagerstown squad. 1.42 whip, 4.87 fip. Reyes signed relatively late for a Dominican player (at age 18) but has steadily progressed out of the DSL and through the short-season leagues. This was his first stint in full-season ball and at age 20 could be excused for getting hit somewhat hard. A 72/50 K/BB ratio isn’t promising; he maintained much better K/9 rates in the lower levels. I figure he’ll repeat Low-A looking to improve his numbers and see if he can regain some of his swing and miss stuff. Outlook for Next season: repeating Low-A rotation.

Drew Van Ordenwent 5-5, 3.61 ERA for Hagerstown with 47/34 K/BB in 92ip (15 starts), 4.33 fip, .254 babip. Not a bad season for the under-slot 2014 5th round senior sign, who’s clearly sticking around. He was mostly a spot starter for Hagerstown this year, getting a bunch of starts during the turmoil of the rotation. He ended the season on the DL after giving the team 92 decent innings. His FIP is a bit weak thanks to overall lucky BABIP contact but he has given no reason not to put himself into the discussion for that same role in Potomac next year. Outlook for Next season: High-A rotation competition.

Philips Valdezdominated the Sally league, going 5-2 with a 1.47 ERA and quickly earned a promotion to Potomac. See High-A write-up for more. Outlook for Next season: High-A rotation

Jefry Rodriguezbounced between Short-A and Low-A again this season, starting in Hagerstown, pitching most of the year in Auburn and ending in Hagerstown. See the Short-A write-up for more. Outlook for Next season: Low-A rotation.

Mario Sanchezwas Hagerstown’s long-man/spot starter all year, getting 8 starts in 29 appearances and posting a 4.86 ERA along the way. 70/18 K/BB ratio in 90.2 innings, 1.28 whip, 4.18 whip, .301 babip. Sanchez is even younger than the other DSL grads on this team (he didn’t turn 21 until after the season was over, so 2016 will be his age-21 season). Good control (nearly 4 strikeouts per walk) but was a bit homer prone (11 homers in 90 innings). He’s undersized (6’1″) and I wonder if he’s not destined to continue to be this rubber-armed innings eater for the organization. Its the same way he’s been used all along; few starts but lots of IP per appearance. I also think he needs to improve his numbers before moving up, and he’s young enough to repeat a level without really stalling his progress. Outlook for Next season: Low-A swingman again.

Justin Amlungis a bit of an oddity; he’s was a 24-yr old MLFA after getting cut from the Cubs’ high-A affiliate in May of 2015. The Nats signed him and had him repeating Low-A for his third straight year. He (like Sanchez) served as a swing-man, getting 19 appearances and 8 starts for Hagerstown, posting a 4.22 ERA along the way. He had a great 42/7 K/BB ratio in 64 low-A innings, 1.14 whip, 3.70 fip. He was promoted towards the end of the season and had a nice stretch for Potomac before the seasons’ end. He was immediately declared a MLFA but has re-signed for 2016. Outlook for Next season: high-A bullpen/swingman.

Matt Purkehad 8 starts and 32 IP for Hagerstown during his tour of the Nats farm system in 2015: see AA write-up for more.

Erick Feddeevenly split his season between Short-A and Hagerstown. He was 4-1, 2.57 ERA in Short-A Auburn with 36/8 in 35ip (8 starts), 2.60 fip, .346 babip. He then got bumped up to Hagerstown where he threw another 29 innings across 6 starts with lesser stats (1-2, 4.34 ERA). A good post-Tommy John debut season for our 2014 1st rounder Fedde, despite the rather restrictive innings limits put on him; he was limited to just 5ip per start for a total of 64ip on the season between two levels. Given his mediocre stats in Hagerstown and the Nats historical promotion schedule, he could start 2016 in the Hagerstown rotation with a quick move up to the Potomac rotation. I could be wrong though; looking at the state of my projected High-A rotation I could also easily see him starting the year in Potomac. There’s just so many arms competing for the Low-A rotation he may be forced up. Outlook for Next season: High-A rotation.

Andrew Leeposted a 5-1, 1.63 ERA across 3 levels, ending up in Hagerstown where he spent most of his first pro season. 47/10 K/BB in 38.2 innings (16/5 starts), 2.19 fip, .250 babip specifically in lowA where he spent most of his time. An intriguing arm for sure and more than held his own in 5 Low-A starts. He’s the fastest riser so far of the 2015 draft class and he’s easily in the mix for the Hagerstown 2016 rotation. Outlook for Next season: Low-A rotation to start; could be a fast riser.

Jose Moralesgot blasted in two Low-A starts after three quick relief appearances in Auburn, then spent the rest of the year on the D/L. Not much to glean from his year; is he a starter or a reliever? He only threw 30-some odd relief innings in 2014; I think he’s being used as a long-man/spot starter arm for now. I would guess he’ll start 2016 in XST with an eye of hooking on with Short-A again. Outlook for Next season: Short-A bullpen.

Ryan Ullmanngot stuck in XST to start the season, hooked up with Hagerstown 5 weeks into the season, got hit hard, was dumped to Auburn, had one appearance and then was summarily released. Quite a quick downturn of events for Ullmann, who was always going to be a long shot (30th rounder out of a small school). Outlook for Next season: out of baseball.

Other Guys who got starts for Hagerstown:

Joan Baezgot 3 starts for Hagerstown in June, got hammered, and spent the rest of the year in short-season ball. See GCL write-up for more.

Jeff Howellhad two starts for Hagerstown before getting a few more in Potomac as he converted to the mound. See High-A write-up for more.

Brian Rauhhad two “rehab” starts for Hagerstown and spent most of the year in Harrisburg. See AA write-up for more.

Robbie Dickeyhad two starts in Hagerstown before getting dumped back to Auburn. See Short-A write-up for more.

Robert Orlanhad one spot-start for Hagerstown; see the reliever section.

Wirkin Estevezspent the entire season on the D/L: he’ll compete for a Low-A rotation spot in 2016.

Hagerstown Relievers: taking a look at the relief corps. We’ll organize relievers by going by IP from most to least. Anyone with less than 10 IP will get cursory analysis at the end.

Andrew Cooper: 2-2, 3.53 ERA with 35/16 K/BB in 63.2 relief IP for Low-A Hagerstown, 3.63 fip, .283 babip. Improved his numbers across the board while repeating Low-A. Still isn’t getting the K/9 we’d like to see though. He’ll be 24 in High-A next year in what probably is a make or break season. Outlook for Next season: High-A bullpen.

David Napoli went 7-5, 4.01 ERA with 62/36 K/BB in 60 relief IP mostly for LowA Hagerstown. 3.57 fip, .289 babip. He started with Potomac but spent most of the year in Hagerstown, despite turning 25 during the season. If anything, his numbers took a step back from his 2014 Hagerstown campaign, and given his age and the glut of arms in the system, time may be running out. Or maybe not: i mean, he signed for $15k and basically cost the team nothing and eats innings; that kind of guy is useful to have around. Outlook for Next season: High-A bullpen.

Robert Orlanwent 3-1, 3.00 ERA with 85/28 K/BB ratio in 72 relief IP between LowA and HighA. Orlan bounced between Potomac and Hagerstown all season, ending up in HighA with pretty good numbers in a “more than a loogy” role. Especially impressive is 85 Ks in just 72 ip. He’s older for these levels, inarguably, but could put himself in a good position by continuing to succeed in 2016. I see him in the Potomac bullpen again with an eye towards a June promotion to AA when the short-season promotions come due. Outlook for Next season: High-A bullpen.

Samuel Johnswent 3-4, 4.31 ERA between LowA and ShortA with 39/17 k/bb in 62.2 relief innings, 4.63 fip, .290 babip in lowA. He struggled in LowA, but then dropped back to ShortA and was dominant. Not great, but certainly not bad for a 31st round 5th year senior as compared to what has happened to other 5th year senior signs on this list. Maybe not the best stuff, but has been effective. My guess is that he either makes the Hagerstown team next spring or is cut loose, but the fact that he hung around this long gives him some more room to work with. Outlook for Next season: Low-A bullpen.

Kevin Perezthrew 36 relatively effective innings for Hagerstown after throwing 18 relatively ineffective innings for Potomac to start the year. The team signed him as a MLFA early in 2015 after he was dumped out of the Low-A Royals affiliate but I doubt he showed the team enough to stick with him given the number of arms rising out of the short-season rosters. Outlook for Next season: out of the organization.

Deion Williams, went 1-2, 5.46 ERA with 22/18 K/BB in 29.2 relief innings with Hagerstown. Williams was drafted as a SS but converted to the mound after a year or so. Since then, he’s struggled, somehow making it onto the full-season Hagerstown roster in June after sitting in XST for two months. There, he continued not to impress; his career ERA is now 6.12 across 103IP and the three lower levels of the minors. I could see 2016 being a “make it or break it” year for him; he either makes the full season bullpen or he’s cut. Outlook for Next season: Low-A bullpen competition.

Koda Gloverwent 1-1, 1.80 ERA across 2 levels, getting promoted to Low-A after just 6 IP in Short-A. Of course, in those 6ip he gave up just one hit and struck out 11, so it was pretty clear he was over-qualified for the league. For the season: 38/2 K/BB in 30 ip (19app), 2.44 fip, .288 babips in LowA where he spent most of the year. 38 to 2 (!!) K/BB ratio in 30 innings. No wonder he was an over-slot deal; the 2015 draftee is one of the highest rising guys in the class so far. Glover profiled very well and should be in the mix for a High-A bullpen slot in 2016 already.Outlook for Next season: High-A bullpen.

Brett Mooneyhamwas 0-2 with a 6.41 ERA in 19 ineffective innings for Low-A Hagerstown before the Nats finally cut the cord and released him on 6/3/15. Mooneyham was in Low-A for the third successive season, having failed to make the cut in Potomac in each of 2013 and 2014. You’d have to say that he’s one of the more higher-profile drafting failures of the Mike Rizzo era. Or maybe not; the team had to go over-slot to sign Giolito and may have skimped for the rest of the draft. Outlook for Next season: out of the organization.

Ryan Brinleywent 1-4 1.44 ERA across 3 levels this year with a 16/1 K/BB in 31.1 ip, 3.85 fip, .292 babip in low-A (where he ended up). Great 27th round find so far in Brinley, who may not have a ton of swing and miss but certainly seems to have some command (1 BB in 31 innings??). Could be a nice little middle relief option going forward, someone who can keep his team in games. I could see him in the High-A bullpen next year based on his command of Low-A. Outlook for Next season: High-A bullpen.

Jake Walshthrew 17 scoreless innings in Hagerstown before getting bumped up to High-A. See High-A write-up for more.

David Ramosthrew 13 innings of middle relief for Hagerstown before getting hurt; he spent most of the summer going “rehab” assignments all throughout short-season ball before being “activated” once the full-season was done. Not much to glean from his season; his ERAs were not pretty anywhere he went. He’s now 24, in his fourth pro season outside of the DSL and has yet to post an ERA below 6.46 in any of his multiple stops. Honestly, I’m surprised he made the full-season bullpen in 2015. I’d guess he’ll take another shot at Hagerstown’s bullpen in 2016 and if he doesn’t make it, he could be facing an April 1 release. Outlook for Next season: Low-A bullpen competition.

Other Relievers who got less than 10 IP for Hagerstown this year:

Tommy Peterson: threw 6ip in the last week of the season: see Short-A write-up.

It was a successful season for Hagerstown hurlers; I count 6-7 guys who earned promotions by pitching well in Hagerstown. A good number of them should feature in 2016 for either Potomac or Harrisburg. This didn’t help the Suns much, as they finished both halves right around .500, not quite good enough for a playoff spot. 2016’s staff will have some familiarity to it; I think a good portion of the 2016 opening day rotation will look just like the 2015 end-of-season rotation, mirroring the Nats recent habit of having players repeat levels in overlapping seasons and doing mid-season promotions.

For some historical perspective, here’s 2013’s version (featuring Taylor Jordan), here’s 2012’s version (Nathan Karns the feature pitcher) and 2011’s version (Danny Rosenbaum the feature pitcher) of this post specifically for Potomac/High-A. Had we done this in 2014, we would likely have “featured” Gilberto Mendez for his good work closing.

Note; while its relatively easy to do reviews for the upper levels of the system, once we get lower we’re usually talking about a lot of short sample sizes. And i’m sure there’s people reading this who saw every pitcher on this post throw in 2015; by all means feel free to comment if you believe i’ve mis-characterized someone here. Of all the write-ups I expect readers here to have better opinions of Potomac players by virtue of actually seeing them week in/week out, so definitely pipe up.

Potomac starters. The rotation started the season with Pivetta, Rauh, Schwartz, Suero, Spann*. 19 guys got starts in 2015. Here’s an overview of the starters used, starting with the original five starters, going all the way to the rehab spot starts.

Nick Pivettawas your opening day starter, and by the end of the season he had gotten promoted and traded. He earned his promotion, going 7-4 with a 2.29 ERA in 15 starts for Potomac. He was not as successful upon his promotion to AA, but that was still enough to catch the eye of Philadelphia and be the bounty for them ridding themselves of Jonathan Papelbon‘s ego and contract. If he was still with the team, he would have been the ‘featured” player above and not Mapes for his dominant season in High-A. Outlook for Next Season: Philadelphia’s AA team in Reading, where he gets to go against Harrisburg and all his old teammates a few times a year.

Brian Rauhthrew 7 excellent High-A starts before getting promoted to AA, where he spent most of the year. See AA write-up for more. Outlook for Next season: AA rotation or bust.

Blake Schwartzhad three High-A starts, struggled, and retired. After a fantastic 2013 season in Potomac, he just never could make the jump to AA and (not that I’ve ever talked to him or anything) perhaps got discouraged after not really progressing further up the chain. Outlook for Next season: retired, out of baseball

Wander Sueropitched pretty effectively for Potomac in the first half in a swingman role, getting 16 appearances and 5 starts and posting a 2.41 ERA, 1.20 whip, and a 3.27 FIP. Not much in the way of swing and miss though; 39/18 K/BB in 56 innings. After moving up, he struggled in AA but inched up his K/9 rate while focusing more on middle relief. No reason to think he can’t compete in AA in 2016, and is still relatively young (he turned 24 just after the season ended so he’ll still be 24 all next year). Outlook for Next season: AA bullpen, perhaps High-A bullpen again if he gets squeezed in a numbers game.

Matthew Spann bounced between High-A and AA all year, posting mid 4 ERAs in both places. See AA write-up for more. Outlook for Next season: AA rotation.

Reynaldo Lopezled the team in IP and starts for 2015, going 6-7 with a 4.09 ERA in 99 IP across 19 starts. His stats: 4.09 ERA, 1.22 whip, 2.95 FIP and 94/28 K/BB in those 99 innings, all as a 21-yr old. It isn’t hard to see why Lopez is highly ranked on “top 10” lists for Nats prospects; he more than held his own in High-A as one of the younger hurlers in the league. The team held him back in XST for a few weeks to keep innings off his arm. While most scouting reports think he’ll eventually end up in the bullpen (no third pitch, iffy mechanics, big arm), he’s obviously worth giving more chances to stick as a high-velocity starter (in the same vein as Yordano Ventura for example). Outlook for Next season: AA rotation.

John Simmsthrew an excellent half season for Potomac before getting bumped up mid-season; see AA writeup for more. Outlook for Next season: AA rotation.

Lucas Giolitothrew an dominant half season for Potomac (86 ks in 69 innings) after being kept in XST for the first 5 weeks of the season (so much for those pre-2015 interviews where he proclaimed that he had no innings limits, eh?) before also getting bumped up mid-season; see AA writeup for more. Outlook for Next season: AA rotation.

Austen Williamsblitzed the Sally league and forced a promotion to Potomac mid-season, where he continued pitching well. In High-A he was 4-6 with a 2.59 ERA, 1.09 whip, 3.22 fip and 41/17 K/BB over 63 high-A innings. The 2014 draftee is looking like a nice little find. There does seem to be a bit of fortuitousness in his numbers (.253 BABIP and a delta between his ERA and FIP), so I could see the log-jam in the AA projected rotation keeping Williams back in Potomac for the first half of the 2016 season. Outlook for Next season: High-A rotation to start with an eye on quick promotion.

Philips Valdezdominated the Sally league and earned a promotion after two months. In Potomac he bounced in and out of the rotation, getting 10 starts across 22 appearances and posting a 3.77 ERA in High-A. Other numbers: 1.44 whip, 3.26 fip, 48/25 K/BB in 59 High-A innings. Valdez has been around for a while; this was his *seventh* season in the Nats organization. He just turned 24. But he has relatively few innings on his arm; just 260 IP across those seven seasons (he missed the entirety of 2012). He’s looking like he could be a low-profile decent starter going forward, though he may run out of time in the system before the team is faced with a tougher decision on how to keep him. For now, I think he repeats High-A to start, is tried out as a full time starter, and we’ll see if he can push forward to AA in 2016. Outlook for Next season: High-A rotation

Tyler Mapesso far is a pretty good 2014 draft success story; he was a 30th round *senior sign* out of Tulane who was basically unhittable in Short-A last year, threw 6 clean innings in Low-A and was bumped up to High-A (the first 2014 draftee to get promoted that high) after just a couple of weeks. Once in Potomac, he continued to pitch well in a swing-man role; 30 appearances, 8 starts, a 2.38 ERA across 90 innings, 1.22 whip, 2.78 FIP and 75/17 K/BB over 96 innings in High-A. Not too shabby. If it were me, I’d push him right to AA and stick him in the rotation, but as noted before I’m projecting an awful lot of starters to be in that Harrisburg rotation right now. I’m curious to see how things shake out for someone like Mapes; he didn’t last to the 30th round as a favor to the Nats; is there something limiting in his capabilities that will cause him to suddenly top out like a lot of late-round senior signs? We’ll see. Outlook for Next season: AA rotation.

Ian Dicksonwas hurt the first half of the season and finished 2015 the exact same place he finished 2014: in the Potomac rotation with decent to effective numbers. 2015 totals for Dickson: 3-3, 3.60 ERA in 12 appearances/8 starts. We see a problem though: 31 ks and 39 (?!) walks in 40 innings in Potomac this year. Wow; that’s a walk an inning. He never saw this kind of walk rate before, so hopefully its just a remnant of whatever injury kept him out the first half of the year. Nonetheless, he seems like he’ll be back in Potomac a third year until he can solve his walk rate issues. Outlook for Next season: High-A rotation.

Dakota Bacus began the season in Potomac, had 5 starts and 8 appearances and got bumped quickly to Harrisburg, where he played most of the season. See AA write-up for more.

Jeff Howellis a pretty interesting player. He’s a career minor league backup catcher, having toiled in the lower minor leagues since 2005. He signed on with Washington in 2012 and hung around as a backup between the levels for a couple of years. Then suddenly, at the age of 32, he decided to try his hand on the mound. Perhaps he was inspired by other Catchers-turned-Hurlers like Jason Motte. He (presumably) hung out in XST for most of the season learning how to pitch, then threw a couple of games in the Rookie league, then for Hagerstown, then finally for Potomac at season’s end. He struggled once he got to Potomac, giving up 9 runs in 13 innings but more importantly walking 17 guys while he was there. He’s now a MLFA and one may think that he’d re-up with Washington since we’re the ones who gave him a shot. We’ll see how the off-season goes. He may choose to pitch elsewhere where he can be guaranteed a rotation spot (a tough one in our system, since we’re completely overloaded with arms from pitching-heavy drafts over the past few years). Outlook for Next season: continuing his conversion to pitcher in another organization.

Others who got starts in Potomac for 2015:

Matt Purke got three brief starts in Potomac before settling in Harrisburg for the year; see AA write-up for more.

Potomac Relievers: taking a look at the relief corps. We’ll organize relievers by going by IP from most to least. Anyone with less than 10 IP will get cursory analysis at the end.

Justin Thomaswas the bullpen leader in IP for Potomac in 2015, throwing 57 innings across 28 games, posting a 3.43 ERA, 1.21 whip, a 2.84 FIP and getting 50/18 K/BB in those 57 innings. He’s a lefty but was used more as a long-man, not being limited to just short stints. He’s looking great considering his limited draft pedigree (senior sign out of a small college in the 21st round) and I see no reason not to keep bumping him up the chain. Outlook for Next season: AA rotation.

Jake Johanssenwas 1-7 with a 5.44 ERA, 1.81 whip, 4.69 fip with 48/27 K/BB in 48 relief innings for Potomac. Johanssen was our top draft pick in 2013, has already been “demoted” from a starter to the pen, and now seemingly can’t perform in a relief role either. Where do you go from here with him? You and I know that his large bonus is a “sunk cost” and shouldn’t dictate his usage, but teams don’t seem to see it that way. Just look at how long the Nats kept Brett Mooneyham around after it became clear he wasn’t capable of performing, even at lower levels of the minors? I see Johanssen repeating High-A and trying to get his career back on track. Outlook for Next season: High-A bullpen.

Derek Selfseems to be taking a step back in his career; after posting a 1.69 ERA through half a season in Potomac last year, he more than earned a promotion up to AA where he more than held his own. However after just 14 innings in AA this year, he got dumped back to Potomac, thus repeating High-A for the third straight year. He was solid again; a 4/1 K/BB ratio in middle relief, but where is his Nats career going at this point? Obviously he needs to be in the AA bullpen next year, but you could have also said that last year and it didn’t work out. There’s going to be a lot of AA bullpen competition; if he gets squeezed out does he get cut in 2016? we’ll see. Outlook for Next season: AA bullpen competition/Release Candidate.

Brian Duprais in a similar boat as Derek Self; he’s now 27 and spent most of his third successive year in Potomac. He was promoted mid-season to AA but didn’t last long after getting hit hard. Final Potomac stats for 2015: 2.79 ERA in 42 mostly later bullpen innings. I think he’s going to be in a similar situation as Self this coming spring; if he cannot cut it at AA (and there’s plenty of competition for that bullpen), he may get cut loose entirely. Not that it should matter, but it should be noted that Dupra was a senior sign for limited bonus money out of Notre Dame in 2011, so it could be a “make the team or get cut” situation. Outlook for Next season: AA bullpen competition/Release candidate.

Cody Daviswas struggling early in the season, with a decent ERA but ugly peripherals (4.55 fip, 10/15 K/BB in 21 ip) and was released towards the end of June as upwards player movement started to need bullpen spots. The undrafted MLFA signing from 2011 played parts of 5 seasons for the system but seemed to fall apart this year as he repeated High-A. It does not look like he picked up anywhere and may be done. Outlook for Next season: out of baseball.

Manny Rodriguezonly threw 21 innings between two different D/L stints this year, and then was released soon after the end of the season. It seems that the team believed he never recovered from the injury that cost him two full seasons early in his minor league career. Outlook for Next season: out of baseball.

Jake Walshthrew 17 scoreless innings as a late-inning/closer in Low-A before getting bumped up to High-A in July. From there out he posted a 3.66 ERA in 19.2 innings across 9 appearances with a 19/10 K/BB ratio. There’s something odd going on with Walsh; why was he even in Low-A to start 2015? He posted a sub-2.00 ERA across low- and high-A LAST YEAR, yet didn’t start in Potomac nor get considered for the AA rotation despite being a senior sign in 2013. He now holds a CAREER 1.65 ERA and seems to me to more than have earned a shot at a look at a higher level. Outlook for Next season: AA bullpen.

Kevin Perezspent the 2nd half of the year in Hagerstown after struggling early on in Potomac: see Low-A write-up for more.

Robert Orlanspent most of the season in Hagerstown but posted a 2.20 ERA in Potomac in 16.1 August innings: see Low-A write-up for more.

Justin Amlung, similarly to Orlan above, spent most of the season in Hagerstown but posted an excellent 1.84 ERA in Potomac in 14.2 July and August innings: see Low-A write-up for more.

Other Relievers of note who had less than 10 IP for Potomac this year:

David Napoli had 8 IP for Potomac before getting demoted to Hagerstown: see Low-A write-up for more.

Matt Purke threw 7 IP for Potomac during his tour of the Nats farm system in 2015: see AA write-up for more.

Erik Davis threw 3 re-hab IP in 2015; see AA write-up for more.

Tanner Roark threw one 4Ip start during his “stretch out” minor league stint; see MLB write-up for more.

Brenden Webb, normally an Outfielder, threw a 3Ip mop-up game (really? they couldn’t find ONE reliever out of the 32 guys who threw innings for Potomac this year?)

MLBers Aaron Barrett, Casey Janssen and David Carpenter each had some re-hab innings; see MLB write-up for more.

A few guys spent the entire year on the D/L: Ronald Pena, Kylin Turnbull, Hector Sylvestre: all are looking at repeating Potomac next year if/when healthy.

Summary

Potomac certainly saw a lot of churn in its pitching staff; 32 total pitchers used (19 different starters including rehab starts by relievers). Their leading IP was Lopez, who didn’t even hit 100 IP on the year. There were at least 6-7 arms who earned their promotions to AA mid-season, a great sign for the rising tide of pitching talent in the system. Lots of guys with ERAs that start with a “2” in the season-ending stats. It didn’t help Potomac in the standings; they finished both halves several games under .500 and out of the playoffs. This will create quite a competition for the AA staff next year: my projections at this point show at least 6-7 rotation candidates, 8-9 bullpen candidates and another 3-4 guys who are right at that age where they may be summarily cut if they don’t make the AA team in 2016. Harsh, but good for the Nats, who could use all the bullpen help they can get.