Employers' hiring plans in holding pattern

Manpower survey finds 'stable' staffing levels for second quarter

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- A net 5% of employers said they expect to hire in the second quarter, a moderate increase compared with -2% in the prior year, but essentially flat from the prior quarter, according to the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey released Tuesday.

In the first quarter, a net 6% of firms, on a seasonally adjusted basis, said they expect to add to their workforce, up from -2% in the prior three quarters, according to the Milwaukee-based firm's survey of more than 18,000 employers.

"We continue to remain cautiously optimistic," said Melanie Holmes, vice president of world of work solutions at Manpower. "For those who are currently unemployed and looking for work, we anticipate that U.S. employers are inching ahead. We are heading into the right direction, but the labor market will really take some time before it begins to accelerate."

The Manpower data does not measure the number of jobs; it measures the portion of firms planning to hire minus those intending layoffs. "We are anticipating that more employers will add than decrease, but we don't know how many jobs that means," Holmes said.

Last week the government report on U.S. nonfarm payrolls showed that labor-market strength has yet to return, as payrolls declined for the 25th time in the past 26 months. While severe snowstorms during the survey week may have depressed the payroll count, the government could not quantify the impact, and some analysts said weakness persists. Read more about the employment report.

The best news in the Manpower report may be for those who are currently employed: a record-tying high of 73% of employers said they plan to maintain their current staff levels.

"Inventories are down, and people are beginning to create goods. So many employers can't afford to cut more people," Holmes said.

Industry outlook

The survey indicated that employers have a positive net employment outlook in 12 of 13 industry sectors tracked by Manpower -- "government" being the only category with a negative outlook.

"We expect it's because of local and state government, rather than federal government," Holmes said.

However, hiring plans are at a lower level than normal in a strong economy. In a good economy, the usual net employment outlook is in the low 20s.

Still, the employment outlook for 12 of 13 industry sectors is better in the second quarter than in the first quarter. The only industry sector with a decline for that period is education and health services, with a net employment outlook of 3% in the second quarter, compared with 4% in the first quarter.

For each industry sector, here are the figures for the net employment outlook for the second quarter, not seasonally adjusted, in order of most positive first.

Leisure and hospitality, 17% in the second quarter, up from 4% in the first quarter

Professional and business services, 15%, up from 5%

Mining, 11%, up from -1%

Manufacturing, nondurable goods, 9%, up from 1%

Financial activities, 9%, up from 2%

Transportation and utilities, 8%, up from -6%

Manufacturing, durable goods, 8%, up from -3%

Information, 8%, up from 0%

Wholesale and retail trade, 7%, up from 4%

Construction, 4%, up from -12%

Other services, 4%, up from 2%

Education and health services, 3%, down from 4%

Government, -1%, up from -3%

By region

For its regional analysis, Manpower divides the U.S. into four areas. For each region, here is the seasonally adjusted net employment outlook for the second quarter:

Northeast, 8%, up from 3% in the first quarter. Manpower counts the following states in this region: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont.

West, 6%, up from 2% in the first quarter. Manpower counts the following states in this region: Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming.

South, 6%, down from 7% in the first quarter. Manpower counts the following as part of this region: Puerto Rico and Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia.

Midwest, 4%, down from 6% in the first quarter. Manpower counts the following states in this region: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin.

Industry breakdown

Here's a breakdown of what types of jobs fall into which industry category (industries are in alphabetical order):

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