How The 'No Budget, No Pay' Provision Could Completely Backfire On The GOP

The "No Budget, No Pay" provision that GOP leaders insisted be
part of a debt ceiling suspension could backfire on House
Republicans, according to crucial new information from
POLITICO's Ben White.

The move was largely interpreted as a way to force Senate
Democrats' hand on a budget.

The House GOP has had various incarnations of the Ryan budget for
several years, while Democrats have remained comfortable
extending the last budget passed at the beginning of President
Obama's term.

But here's how the GOP's move — which would defer salaries to
Senators and members of the House of Representatives until a
budget passes each chamber — could backfire.

As it turns out, the Senate not only has the votes for the
budget, they also have an outstandingly easy path to passage.
Gugenheim Securities' Chris Krueger told POLITICO's White that
the Senate budget process is something of a breeze:

Total debate time on the Senate budget is capped at 50
hours (no filibusters), which is then followed by a daylong
‘vote-a-rama.’ The Senate budget only needs 50 votes to pass,
provided Vice President Biden breaks the tie. There are 55
Democratic votes.

However, the House of Representatives has a much narrower
path to pass even the Ryan budget. There remains the deadline of
April 15, and the vote will be tight. Kreuger pointed out the
following stats:

There are a number of blue-state Republicans who might not
vote for a budget that "austere" — 15 in districts Obama won in
2012.

There are a number of conservatives who may not vote for the
budget because it's not austere enough — 14 Republicans voted
against the continuing resolution as a rejection of the current
fiscal trajectory.

There are 231 House Republicans and Boehner can lose only
15.

"No Budget, No Pay" begins on
April 15 if both chambers have not passed a budget.

The breezy Senate process and the difficult House process means
that it's very possible that in fact the GOP will trip their own
trap on April 15, when "No Budget, No Pay" kicks in.