We investigate the factors associated with the incidence of mortgage-related financial
difficulties in Australia. We use two complementary micro-level datasets: loan-level
data on residential mortgages from two Australian banks, which we use to analyse
the factors associated with entering 90+ day housing loan arrears; and household-level
data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey,
which we use to explore the factors associated with households missing mortgage
payments.

The loan-level analysis indicates that the probability of entering arrears increases
with the loan-to-valuation ratio (LVR) at origination, and is particularly
high for loans with an LVR above 90 per cent. In contrast, the probability
of entering arrears is lower for loans that are repaid relatively quickly.
Additionally, the probability of entering arrears varies across different loan
types; for example, low-documentation loans are more likely to enter arrears,
even after controlling for whether the borrower was self-employed. The likelihood
of entering arrears increases with the contract interest rate, which is consistent
with lenders setting higher interest rates for riskier borrowers. The household-level
analysis suggests that the probability of missing a mortgage payment is particularly
high for households with relatively high debt-servicing ratios. Households
that have previously missed a payment are also much more likely to miss subsequent
payments than households with unblemished payment histories.