Election results maps for the Chamber of Deputies (on the left) and for the Senate of the Republic (on the right). The colors identify the coalition which received the most votes in each electoral constituency. Blue the Centre-right coalition, Yellowthe Five Star Movement, Red denotes Centre-left coalition, Light Blue the Aosta Valley regional coalition, and Grey is the South Tyrol regional coalition.

The centre-right alliance, in which Matteo Salvini‘s League emerged as the main political force, won a plurality of seats in the Chamber of Deputies and in the Senate while the anti-establishment Five Star Movement led by Luigi Di Maio became the party with the largest number of votes and the centre-left coalition, led by former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, came third.[6][7] However, no political group or party won an outright majority, resulting in a hung parliament.

On 16 November 2013, Berlusconi launched a new party, Forza Italia (FI),[9] named after the defunct Forza Italia party (1994–2009). Additionally, Berlusconi announced that FI would be opposed to Letta’s government, causing the split from the PdL/FI of a large group of deputies and senators led by Minister of Interior Angelino Alfano, who launched the alternative New Centre-Right (NCD) party and remained loyal to the government.[10]

Following the election of Matteo Renzi as Secretary of the PD in December 2013, there were persistent tensions culminating in Letta’s resignation as Prime Minister in February 2014. Subsequently, Renzi formed a government based on the same coalition (including the NCD), but in a new fashion.[11] The new Prime Minister had a strong mandate from his party and was reinforced by the PD’s strong showing in the 2014 European Parliament election[12] and the election of Sergio Mattarella, a fellow Democrat, as President in 2015. While in power, Renzi implemented several reforms, including a new electoral law(which would later be declared partially unconstitutional by the Constitutional Court), a relaxation of labour and employment laws (known as Jobs Act) with the intention of boosting economic growth, a thorough reform of the public administration, the simplification of the civil trial, the recognition of same-sex unions (not marriages) and the abolition of several minor taxes.[13][14]

As a result of the Libyan civil war, a major problem faced by Renzi was the high level of illegal immigration to Italy. During his tenure, there was an increase in the number of immigrants rescued at sea being brought to southern Italian ports, prompting criticism from the M5S, FI and Lega Nord (LN),[15][16] and causing a loss of popularity for Renzi.[17] However, well into 2016 opinion polls registered the PD’s strength, as well as the growth of the M5S, the LN and Brothers of Italy (FdI), FI’s decline, SC’s virtual disappearance and the replacement of Left Ecology Freedom (SEL) with the Italian Left (SI).

In December 2016, a constitutional reform proposed by Renzi’s government and duly approved by Parliament was rejected in a constitutional referendum (59% to 41%). Under the reform, the Senate would have been composed of 100 members: 95 regional representatives and 5 presidential appointees.[18][19][20] Following defeat, Renzi stepped down as Prime Minister and was replaced by his Minister of Foreign Affairs Paolo Gentiloni, another Democrat.[21]

In May 2017, Matteo Salvini was re-elected federal secretary of the LN and launched his own bid.[27][28] Under Salvini, the party had emphasised Euroscepticism, opposition to immigration and other populist policies.[29] In fact, Salvini’s aim had been to re-launch the LN as a “national” or, even, “Italian nationalist” party, withering any notion of northern separatism. This focus became particularly evident in December when LN presented its new electoral logo, without the word “Nord”.[30]

In September 2017, Luigi Di Maio was selected as candidate for Prime Minister and “political head” of the M5S, replacing Grillo.[31][32] However, even in the following months, the populist comedian was accused by critics of continuing to play his role as de facto leader of the party, while an increasingly important, albeit unofficial, role was assumed by Davide Casaleggio, son of Gianroberto, a web strategist who founded the M5S along with Grillo in 2009 and died in 2016.[33][34][35] In January 2018, Grillo separated his own blog from the movement; his blog was used in the previous years as an online newspaper of the M5S and the main propaganda tool.[36] This event was seen by many as the proof that Grillo was slowly leaving politics.[37]

In late February, Berlusconi indicated the President of the European Parliament, Antonio Tajani, as his candidate for the premiership if the centre-right won the general election[48] and if Forza Italia received at least the plurality of the votes inside the coalition, condition that did not occur, resulting in a victory of the party led by Matteo Salvini, the League.

The first phase of the electoral campaign was marked by the statement of the President Mattarella to parties for the presentation of “realistic and concrete” proposals during the traditional end of the year’s message, in which he also expressed the wish for a high participation in the ballot.[49]

The electoral programme of the PD included, among the main points, the introduction of a minimum hourly wage of €10, a measure that would affect 15% of workers, that is those workers who do not adhere to the national collective agreements; a cut of the contributory wedge for permanent contracts; a relocation allowance and an increase in subsidies for the unemployed; a monthly allowance of €80 for parents for each minor child; fiscal detraction of €240 for parents with children; and the progressive reduction of the rates of IRPEF and IRES, respectively the income tax and the corporate tax.[50][51][52] Regarding immigration, which had been a major problem in Italy for the previous years, the PD advocated a reduction in migrant flows through bilateral agreements with the countries of origin and pretended to a halt to EU funding for countries like Hungary and Poland that have refused to take in any of the 600,000 migrants who have reached Italy through the Mediterranean over the past four years.[53] Among the PD’s allies, the CP proposed free nurseries, a tax exemption for corporate welfare and other measures regarding public health, including the contrast to the long waiting list in hospitals, the abolition of the so-called “supertickets”, and an extension of home care for the elderly.[54] +E advocated the re-launch of the process of European integration and federation, towards the formation of the United States of Europe.[55] This focus, regarding the European process of integration, was also strongly supported by the PD.[56] More Europe also strongly advocated the social integration of migrants, quietly opposing the PD’s policies implemented by the Minister of Interior Marco Minniti.[57]

The main proposal of the centre-right coalition is a huge tax reform based on the introduction of a flat tax: for Berlusconi initially based on the lowest current rate (23%) with the threshold raised to €12,000, then proceeding to a gradual reduction of the rate; while according to Salvini the tax rate should be only 15%. The most notable Italian economic newspaper Il Sole 24 Ore estimated the cost of this measure at around €25 billion per year calculated with a 20% rate, or €40 billion with 15%.[58]Berlusconi also proposed the cancellation of IRAP, a tax on productivity, the increase of minimum pensions to €1,000, the introduction of a “dignity income” to fight poverty, the decontribution on youth recruitment, changes to the Fornero law, which regulated pensions, and the launch of a “Marshall Plan” for Africa to reduce illegal immigration to Italy.[59] Within FI there are some representatives of the Animalist Movement (MA) led by Michela Brambilla, whose main focus is in particular the banning of fur clothingand stricter controls in circuses, free veterinary care and the establishment of an ombudsman for animal rights.[60] The Lega additionally proposed the complete replacement of the Fornero law and the possibility of retirement with 41 years of contributions, the “scrapping” of tax records for taxpayers in difficulty, an operation that should yield up to €35 billion to the State, the disbandment of Equitalia, the company that deals with the collection of taxes, the abolition of the limit on the use of cash, the regularization of prostitution;[61] moreover, Salvini’s main aim is a drastic reduction of illegal immigration, by reintroducing border controls, blocking arrivals and repatriating all migrants who have no right to stay in Italy.[62] The FdI proposed free nurseries, a check for €400 per month for newborns up to the six years old, to increase population growth, parental leave paid to 80% up to the sixth year of birth, increase in salaries and equipment to law enforcement, the increased use of the Italian Army as a measure to fight crime and a new law on self-defense.[63]

The M5S presented a programme whose main points are the introduction of an basic income, known as “income of citizenship”, to fight poverty, a measure that would cost between €15 and €20 billion annually; the cut of the public debt by 40 points in relation to GDP in ten years; the adoption of measures to revitalise youth employment; a cut in pensions of over €5,000 net not entirely based on the contribution method; the reduction of IRPEF rates and the extension of the income tax threshold; the increase in spending on family welfare measures from 1.5 to 2.5% of GDP; a constitutional law that obliges members of Parliament to resign if they intend to change party, which by now is unconstitutional.[64] Di Maio also proposed a legislative simplification, starting with the elimination of almost 400 laws with a single legislative provision.[65]

LeU focused on the so-called right to study, proposing in particular the abolition of university fees for students who take the exams regularly, with the estimated cost for the state budget of €1.6 billion. LeU also proposed the reintroducing the workers’ statutory protections which were eliminated by the Renzi government’s Jobs Act, fighting tax evasion, corruption and organised crime.[66]

On 3 February 2018, a drive-by shooting event occurred in the city of Macerata, Marche in Central Italy when a 28-year-old local man, Luca Traini, seriously wounded six African migrants.[67] Traini also targeted local headquarters of the ruling PD.[68]After the attack Traini reportedly had an Italian flag draped on his shoulders and raised his arm in a Fascist salute.[69] Traini stated that the attack was a revenge for Pamela Mastropietro, an 18-year-old Roman woman whose dismembered body had been found few days earlier, stuffed into two suitcases and dumped in the countryside; for this, three Nigerian drug dealers were arrested, the main suspect being 29-year-old failed asylum seeker Innocent Oseghale.[70][71] Missing body parts had sparked allegations of the murder having been a muti killing involving cannibalism.[72] The case sparked extreme anger and anti-immigrant sentiment in Macerata. Traini’s lawyer reported “alarming solidarity” for Traini expressed by the populace, and Mastropietro’s mother publicly thanked Traini for “lighting a candle” for her daughter.[73] A second autopsy of Mastropietro’s remains, published after Traini’s attack, suggested that the victim was strangulated, stabbed and then flayed while still alive.[74] The murder of Mastropietro and the attack by Traini, and its reception in Italian media and by the Italian public, were “set to become a decisive factor” in the upcoming national elections.[75]

Traini was a member and former local candidate of the Lega, and many political commentators, intellectuals and politicians harshly criticised the Lega’s leader Matteo Salvini, in connection with the attack, accusing him of having “spread hate and racism” in the country. Particularly, Roberto Saviano, the notable anti-mafia writer, labeled Salvini as the moral instigator of Traini’s attack.[76] Salvini responded to critics by accusing the center-left government of responsibility for Mastropietro’s death for allowing migrants to stay in the country and having “blood on their hands”, asserting the blame lies with those who “fill us with illegal immigrants“.[77] Prime Minister Gentiloni stated that he “trusts in the sense of responsibility of all political forces. Criminals are criminals and the state will be particularly harsh with anyone that wants to fuel a spiral of violence.” Gentiloni added that “hate and violence will not divide Italy”.[78] Also, Minister of the Interior Marco Minniti harshly condemned the attack, saying that any political party must “ride the hate”.[79] Renzi, whose party was the second target of the attack, stated that calm and responsibility from all political forces will be now necessary.[80]

Despite all the media reportages of the event and the accuses of some political forces, in the constituency of Macerata the centre-right coalition led by Traini’s former party, the Lega, won a plurality of the votes in the ballot, thus electing the candidate Tullio Patassini, showing a rise of its preferences from 0.4% in 2013 to 21% five years later.

Differently from many other Western countries, in Italy the electoral debates between parties’ leaders are not so common before general elections;[103] in fact the last debate between the two main candidates to premiership dated back to the 2006 general election between Silvio Berlusconi and Romano Prodi.[104] In recent years, with few exceptions, almost every main political leader had denied his participation to an electoral debate with other candidates, preferring interviews with TV hostsand journalists.[105][106][107][108]

However, many debates took places between other leading members of the main parties.

As a consequence of the 2016 constitutional referendum and of two different sentences of the Constitutional Court, the electoral laws for the two houses of the Italian Parliament lacked uniformity. In October 2017, the PD, AP, FI, the LN and minor parties agreed on a new electoral law,[109] which was approved by the Chamber of Deputies with 375 votes in favor and 215 against[110] and by the Senate with 214 votes against 61.[111] The reform was opposed by the M5S, the MDP, SI, FdI and minor parties.

For Italian residents, each house members will be elected in single ballots, including the constituency candidate and his/her supporting party lists. In each single-member constituency the deputy/senator is elected on a plurality basis, while the seats in multi-member constituencies will be allocated nationally. In order to be calculated in single-member constituency results, parties need to obtain at least 1% of the national vote. In order to receive seats in multi-member constituencies, parties need to obtain at least 3% of the national vote. Elects from multi-member constituencies will come from closed lists.[115]

The voting paper, which is a single one for the first-past-the-post and the proportional systems, shows the names of the candidates to single-member constituencies and, in close conjunction with them, the symbols of the linked lists for the proportional part, each one with a list of the relative candidates.[116]

The voter will be able to cast their vote in three different ways:[117]

Drawing a sign on the symbol of a list: in this case the vote extends to the candidate in the single-member constituencywhich is supported by that list.

Drawing a sign on the name of the candidate of the single-member constituency and another one on the symbol of one list that supports them: the result is the same as that described above; it is not allowed, under penalty of annulment, the panachage, so the voter can not vote simultaneously for a candidate in the FPTP constituency and for a list which is not linked to them.

Drawing a sign only on the name of the candidate for the FPTP constituency, without indicating any list: in this case, the vote is valid for the candidate in the single-member constituency and also automatically extended to the list that supports them; if that candidate is however connected to several lists, the vote is divided proportionally between them, based on the votes that each one has obtained in that constituency.

Twelve members of the Chamber of Deputies are elected by Italians abroad. Two members are elected for North America and Central America (including most of the Caribbean), four members for South America (including Trinidad and Tobago), five members for Europe, and one member for the rest of the world (Africa, Asia, Oceania, and Antarctica). Voters in these regions select candidate lists and may also cast a preference vote for individual candidates. The seats are allocated by proportional representation.

The electoral law allows for parties to form different coalitions on the lists abroad, compared to the lists in Italy; in fact Forza Italia, Lega and Brothers of Italy formed a unified list for abroad constituencies.[118]

Di Maio and Renzi run in a single-member constituency, respectively in Acerra, near Naples, for the Chamber of Deputies and in Florence for the Senate. Salvini ran in many multi-member constituencies through the country and, due to the mechanism of the electoral law, he was elected in Calabria.[119]

After the election’s results were known, both Luigi Di Maio and Matteo Salvini stated that they must receive from President Sergio Mattarella the task of forming a new cabinet because they led the largest party and the largest coalition, respectively.[121] On 5 March, Matteo Renzi announced that the PD will be in the opposition during this legislature and he will resign as party leader when a new cabinet is formed.[122] On 6 March, Salvini repeated his campaign message that his party would refuse any coalition with the M5S.[123] On 14 March, Salvini nonetheless offered to govern with the M5S, imposing the condition that League ally Forza Italia, led by ex premier Silvio Berlusconi, must also take part in any coalition. Di Maio rejected this proposal on the grounds that Salvini was “choosing restoration instead of revolution” because “Berlusconi represents the past”.[124][125]

On 12 March Renzi resigned as party leader and was replaced by deputy secretary Maurizio Martina.

On 7 April, Di Maio made an appeal to the PD to “bury the hatchet” and consider a governing coalition with his party.[125]

On 18 April, President Mattarella gave newly-elected Senate president Alberti Casellati a so-called “exploratory mandate” to form a government of M5S and the centre-right alliance, with a two day deadline.[129]

On 23 April, President Mattarella gave newly elected Chamber of Deputies president Fico an “exploratory mandate” to form a government between M5S and the Democratic Party, with a three day deadline. The decision came after the previous attempt by Alberti Casellati failed to show any progress. [130]

On 30 April, following an interview of the former PD’s leader Matteo Renzi who expressed his strong opposition to an alliance with the M5S, Di Maio called for new elections.[131][132][133]

On 7 May, President Mattarella held a third round of government formation talks, after which he formally confirmed the lack of any possible majority (M5S rejecting an alliance with the whole centre-right coalition, PD rejecting an alliance with both M5S and the centre-right coalition, and the League’s Matteo Salvini refusing to start a government with M5S but without Berlusconi’s Forza Italia party, whose presence in the government was explicitly vetoed by M5S’s leader Luigi Di Maio); on the same circumstance, he announced his intention to soon appoint a “neutral government” (irrespective of M5S and League’s refusal to support such an option) to take over from the Gentiloni Cabinet which was considered unable to lead Italy into a second consecutive election as it was representing a majority from a past legislature, and offering an early election in July as a realistic option to take into consideration due to the deadlock situation.[134]

On 9 May, after a day of rumours, both M5S and the League officially requested President Mattarella to give them 24 more hours to strike a government agreement between the two parties.[135] Later the same day, in the evening, Silvio Berlusconi publicly announced Forza Italia would not support a M5S-League government on a vote of confidence, but he would still maintain the centre-right alliance nonetheless, thus opening the doors to a possible majority government between the two parties.[136]

On 13 May, 5 Star Movement and League reached an agreement on a government program, likely clearing the way for the formation of a governing coalition between the two parties, but they are still negotiating the members of a government cabinet, including the prime minister. 5 Star and League leaders were slated to meet with Italian President Sergio Mattarella on 14 May to guide the formation of a new government.[137]