Last month, Russia announced
that it would shift all its flows of natural gas to Europe via
Turkey, instead of Ukraine, in an effort to counter its
decreasing influence over the European gas market.

"Our European partners have been informed of this and now their
task is to create the necessary gas transport infrastructure from
the Greek and Turkish border," Alexei Miller, head of
the Russian state oil giant Gazprom,said
in a statement.

And now Hungary, a European Union (and NATO) member, has
bolstered Moscow's push to redraw the European gas map.

"It would be a good investment for Hungary if it makes sure that
Turkish gas goes through Greece, Macedonia, and Serbia to
Hungary," Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor
Orbánsaid
after negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin in
Budapest on Tuesday.

Russia Today

The Moscow Times reports
that a deal hasn't been signed and that the price of gas hasn't
been disclosed. Nevertheless, Orbán said the agreement
had been made in principle, and Putin seemed to agree.

"If they don't hinder us, then in essence we could
realize part of the former South Stream project via Turkey,"
Putin said, referring to the European Commission.

The move makes economic sense
to Budapest because Russia is Hungary's biggest
trading partner outside the EU and supplies most of its gas.
Politically, it's the latest win
for Putin near Ukraine's borders and a blow to a
unified European response to Russian aggression.

"We are convinced that locking Russia out of Europe is not
rational," Orbán said. "Whoever thinks that
Europe can be competitive, that the European economy can be
competitive without economic cooperation with Russia, whoever
thinks that energy security can exist in Europe without
the energy that comes from Russia, is chasing ghosts."

Furthermore, the countries prospectively involved in the pipeline
plan have increasingly cozy relationships with
Putin. (The canceled South Stream pipeline had been
slated to pass through both Serbia and Macedonia, which are not
in the EU).

Last February, Macedonian President Gjorge Ivanov told
Russian media "the partnership with the Russian
Federation is crucial for us" because the South Stream pipeline
was "expected to provide the country's energy stability in the
coming decades."

Serbian President Tomislav
Nikolic with Putin during a military parade in October in
Belgrade to mark 70 years since the city's liberation by the Red
Army.REUTERS/Vasily
Maximov

And geopolitical expert Ian Bremmer recently noted that the
signals from the new government in Greece — including
comments by Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras regarding
sanctions over Ukraine, "as well as his meeting with the Russian
ambassador to Greece within hours of taking office — demonstrate
that he is willing to engage differently with Moscow."

Politics in Europe are the
top global risk for 2015, and Putin's emerging gas plan is
making the situation even more difficult for EU leaders.