Making the Cut: AT&T Bryon Nelson

My name is Scott McAfee aka @Scottimac11 on Twitter, Draft Kings, and Fanduel. I will continue our unique prospective this week covering cash game in this “Making the Cut at The Byron Nelson. Ranked in the top 40 in the 2016 Rotogrinders PGA rankings (it’s the only real measure). I have a degree in finance and work as a trader as my day job. I love to chat about DFS golf on twitter so free feel to chat with me @Scottimac11

As with all of our content and tools here at TourLevel we aim to help you make better decisions in all of your fantasy golf/ golf betting related items. The main purpose of this article his to help you “make the cut” with emphasis on cash games. For a more in depth analysis on GPP’s be sure to check out top ranked DFS-Golfer Jason’s Against the Grain Series on Tuesday as well as Kelly McCann’s “Chalk…or not” report due out on Wednesday.

Recap of the Players

A weekend filled with carnage and the 5th major Won by a guy in Si Woo Kim who was a 500/1 favorite. This was one of those “Last Man Standing” type tournaments that just so happened to payout 1.8 million to the winner. The top of the board was filled with more long shots than favorites. It was a disappointing week for some of the guys expected to make a run, even the Golden Boy Jon Rahm decided to lose his putter on Saturday and Shoot +10 on the way to an MDF. Lots of players melted down but this is what Sawgrass will do to the players (pun intended).

We will move on to The AT&T Byron Nelson at TPC Four Seasons, Please check out The First Cut for a detailed course description and stat correlations.

This week we released the Recent Form Generator, I have realized the importance of recent stats for a recent form calculation. Crazy thing about last week is that it picked up on Si Woo Kim, I texted multiple people on it and we just couldn’t roster him with any real volume. Always trust the model!

Not the best week in my tracked history for cash games. Our favorite play of the week Jon RahmGOAT decided to mail it in on Saturday, thus sending our cash lines into a bit of tailspin. For what started off so promising through Friday cuts, it sure took a turn downhill from there. Kuchar and Kisner also didn’t do us any favors. Cantlay held us close to a break even.

Personal results

Scottimac11 went 32-38 in cash games on Draft Kings, which included all H2H, 50/50s and double up. I actually came within 20 bucks of break even because I had my fish radar on from the spreadsheet I keep and picked off a 100/50/20/10/5 from one of my targets. This is a perfect example of the importance of tracking who you play against and their scores.

My first lineup entered in 35 events- 349.50

Second Lineup entered in 35 events- 311.50

Average “cashing” score in the events I played was 354.50. This consists of mostly single entry double ups , 50/50s and H2H

Its easy to see the importance of two lineups, We clearly bubbled on a few of the single entry double ups as well. With a weaker field and tighter pricing, these are weeks that we here at TourLevel really excel.

Cash vs GPP Comparison:

Pressure Putt ($444 entry)- 370.50 (my best line and only entry was 384.50)

Dogleg ($33) –359.00 (my best line was 406.50)

Drive to the Green ($4) – 359.50 (150 lineups and my best line was 461.50)

Strategy Corner:

This week we will continue with our “normal” strategy and course, we will continue to use the two studs strategy, this week its more a two guys that could win, and fill the last 4 with guys we think will reach value. These remaining 4 must have good recent form, good RECENT stats that we can spot from the Recent Form Generator, and good course history. We will continue to deploy two lineups again this week split evenly. Remember I am a firm believer in if you want to play GPP’s you must play a cash game for equal dollar amounts. I will be putting my Standard 50 H2H lineups and 20-25 single entry double up and 50/50s. Anyways lets get to the fun part

Cash Game Locks

Brooks Koepka ($10,200) Brooks is one of my favorite plays this week. He is long enough to get past the 500 yard Par 4 holes without much trouble, he should also take advantage of the two Par 5s. Recent From is strong with 3 top 20s. The dude is just playing good golf right now. The stats on the Recent Form Generator are also strong with positive SG’s gained on the important correlated stats this week. I truly wanna see the Brooks hole in one this week so that Michelob Ultra has to buy everyone that signed up for Round on Brooks 95 cases, cant wait for the beer truck to show up to my house. I wouldn’t bet on a hole in one, I would bet on 2 eagles this week.

Matt Kuchar ($8,700) – I can’t help myself going back to the Kuchar well, last weekend made everyone look bad. His recent stats are still a positive and his course history is filled with two top 10s in last 3 visits to Four Seasons. In a realtivley weak field, at 8700 he should reach value and in a place he is comfortable, ill go with Kuuuuuucccchhh

Value Plays

Jason Dufner ($8800)- Duf Daddy was a borderline Lock for me in cash games, his recent form is solid and he loves this course. He has 3 top 10s and a Win in 2012 here. I’m going back to recent stats again with Dufner and they also look good. I think he contends this week

Gary Woodland ($7700)- Gary is on my value list because of his course history, he has made 7 straight cuts here with a missed cut in 2009 so I’m not giving it the “no hitter” jinx.

Rounding Out the Lineups: Cash play considerations

Ryan Palmer – Course History is solid

Kevin Tway- this one is risky but I love his recent stats per the Form Generator, no course history kept him from the Value play group.

Russell Henley – Purely a recent form generator Play

Good Luck this week and feel free to reach out with any questions, Remember to tune into the @Tourlvlfantasy twitter account Tues night at 9:30 Eastern for Periscope for cash.game advice. Haven’t upgraded from the weekend warrior package? Well you’re missing out on some great content put out by some of the best PGA DFS guys in the business! Be sure to check out our sub options and get the most out of your Tour Level subscription!