Against the Grain: Volvo China Open

Against the Grain (DraftKings)- The Volvo China Open

A great first week at Tour Level, and we’d love to thank all of you for the positive feedback. This week is a bit off an odd, not off, week as DK and FD haven’t made the technology for “team events.” This problem is one that’s been out there already when DK was asked about Ryder Cup events. For me personally, that would be awesome, but hopefully next year. Let’s keep our fingers crossed.

Recap of Last Week’s Article: The Adam Hadwin fade worked very well, and as I mentioned in the article last week, it was solely based on his projected ownership not his ability to golf at a very high level. Summerhays ended up providing a bit of value, while Campos deciding to layup on 18 needing 4 to make the cut, cost him a shot at the weekend. The last of the “Top Plays” was highlighting Jimmy Walker’s ownership and upside from you could get on that. He ranked 14th in DK points, second amongst golfers priced over 10k.

DraftKings Contests This Week: We shift to Euro League for the week.

Player Focus: ***Note that just because a golfer is listed as part of the Game Theory Analysis does not mean that I am recommending playing them unless specified otherwise.***

$10,000 & Above:4 golfers fit this category:

Coming off a W last week, Wiesberger is the favorite to go back to back to back. Fisher, Luiten and a rising Jordan Smith round out the four.

Projections:

Highest Owned: Wiesberger 25+ %

Lowest Owned: Fisher < 15%

GTA (Game Theory Analysis):Luiten/Smith and Bernd all look like they are going to come in over 20% owned in most gpps. Wiesberger saw a huge jump in ownership last week, as the field had him at around 35% across all contests. With his form in very good shape, coming off a win I expect the ownership to remain in that level. Stacking him with Fisher will provide the greatest variance amongst the top 4 stacks, however you’ll be left with a bunch of people you probably won’t recognize. I’ll highlight a few below in the under 7k category.

The Top Play:With both Smith and Luiten expected to be owned in the 20% range, and probably one of the highest owned stacks, the Weisberger/Fisher combo is our top play in this price category. It creates the most variance against the field using a pure stars and scrubs approach.

$9,999-$8,000: 13 golfers fit this category:

The defending champion (Li), and heir of Mr. Titleist (Uliehin) himself are just two of the golfers in this category. A crowd and DFS-Fav Kiradech Aphibarnat also shows up.

Projections:

Highest Owned: Peter Uihlein – 35+

Lowest Owned: Zanotti- 5%

GTA: Uihlein’s ownership is going to be through the roof this week. I wouldn’t be surprised to see upwards of 40 or 50%. I’m not calling for a fade, but bare that in mind when you and/or if you roster him. A sure way to create some variance with Peter in your lineup is to stack him with Frittelli/Zanotti or climbing up the salary ladder with Fisher.

The Top Play:Zanotti is coming off a top 10 last week at the Shenzen, so the form is there. He also placed in the top 10 here last year. Match that up with an expected low ownership has him as the top player in this price category.

$7999-$7000: 25 golfers fit this category.

3 golfers from this category placed in the top 10 here last year and all 3 are coming off some decent form. It’ll be vital to find those guys again this year.

Projections

Highest Owned: Bradley Dredge- 13%

Lowest Owned: Maximilian Kieffer – <2%

GTA: Dredge coming off a MC may bring down his following and ownership % a bit, but he will still come in at the top of this price category, maybe only surpassed by Scott Hend, but suffered the same fate as Dredge last week with a MC.

The Top Play: Peter Hanson and Richie Ramsay are both under the radar names that are coming off good weeks at the Shenzen, and placed very well here (both in 6th) last year. I love the idea of starting a team with those two guys.

6999 and Below-114 golfers fit this category.

Well DK outdid what I thought would never be outdone, and that’s price 114 golfers below 7k.

Projections:

Most if not all guys will be below 2% in this price category. Euro ownership is much more top heavy than the normal PGA Tour events.

GTA: As I mentioned above, the ownership is going to come in very low for virtually every golfer, so the GTA in this price category is going to be merged with the top play. Because of the lack of information, we only have recent form and 1 year of course history to go on with these guys. Therefore, according to @dfsjimmie Euro cheat sheet, click here to view, says that Bernd Ritthammer and Matthew Southgate came in T14 last week and are playing this course for the first time. I’ll ride the form train with these two as my two top plays. Other guys that played well here last year in this price category: Aguilar, Siem, and Paratore.

If you like what you’ve just read, you’ll want to check out my other article, The Winning Element, and cheat sheets included in our premium Edge package. There, we take a deep dive into the 2017 course setup from a Tour player’s perspective. And bottom line, we tell you which players we are keying in on to be your top tournament contenders.