Mangled Jet Stream Aims River of Moisture at Central US and Gulf Coasts

Over the past few weeks, a record warm El Nino has been slowly cooling down in the Equatorial Pacific. One of the top three strongest events on record, this particular warming of sea surfaces in the Pacific coincided with never before seen global heat as atmospheric CO2 levels spiked to above 405 parts per million on some days during February and March. The record warm sea surface and atmosphere held a never before seen excess of water vapor and moisture in suspension — primarily over the Equatorial Ocean zones. And as the world hit peak temperatures during early March and began to back off a little, some of that massive excess of moisture was bound to wring out somewhere.

For such events, all you really need is a trigger. And over the past two days, forecast models have been predicting an insane dip in the Jet Stream. Today, we got it. A raging storm track over the Northeast Pacific roared its 200+ mph upper level winds down over the Western US and Mexico. It drew deep from a rich, record global warming intensified, low Latitude moisture flood as its tail end reached all the way to the Equator itself. This insanely deep trough then turned north, aiming an unprecedented atmospheric moisture flood fire-hose style at the storm-tossed airs above the Mississippi River Valley.

(An extreme dip in the Jet Stream stretching through the Western US and all the way to the Equator is aiming both Pacific and Gulf moisture at the Mississippi River Valley today. The severe storms that are now firing and that are predicted to continue over the next three days may result in an unprecedented flooding event. Image source: Earth Nullschool.)

Foot of Rain or More over Mississippi River Valley in the Next Three Days

Rain that is expected to be extraordinarily intense and long lasting. Reports from the Weather Channel indicated the risk for rainfall rates in the range of 3 inches an hour in some of the heaviest storm cells. Meanwhile, model runs earlier today indicated a potential for as much as 20 Inches of rain for some regions over the next 72 hours. Official NOAA models are now indicating nearly a foot in peak rainfall regions in Eastern Texas and Western Louisiana with the potential for greater than five inches along a broad swath running from the Gulf Coast through to Illinois.

(NOAA predicts very extreme rainfall totals over a broad region of the Mississippi River Valley during the next three days. Image source: NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.)

In addition, those flooding rains will fall all over the Mississippi River Valley — resulting in an extreme threat of very severe flooding all along this great river and its tributaries. As such, we are likely to be dealing with a flood situation for many days after the initial rain event tapers off. With Spring on the way, with so much moisture still bleeding off the Pacific, with a record level of global warming greatly amping up the hydrological cycle, and with a trough development tendency setting up for this region — this particular extreme rainfall event may, sadly, be but the first of many this season.

185 Comments

It is not just temperature records that are falling. The average carbon dioxide level recorded at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, during February 2016 was 404.02 parts per million – 3.76 ppm higher than the average for February 2015, according to preliminary figures.

That is the biggest ever increase over a 12-month period.

…

A new record has also been set for the biggest rise over a calendar year. Global average CO2 levels (which differ slightly from the figures for Mauna Loa only) rose by 3.09 ppm in 2015. The previous record was a rise of 2.82 ppm, in 1998.

Kevin Jones

Charles David Keeling was one of our nation’s and worlds greatest scientists. His son carries on his monitoring. Scripps. Charles David Keeling was awarded the Presidential Medal for Science. By George W. Bush. ‘Splain that you Kochs. Explain this, G.W.!

Kevin Jones

I live not too far from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography — have a membership to the Scripps-Birch Aquarium. One of the bennies of being a member is free admission to monthly lectures given by Scripps scientists.

(Tip for those out there who give lectures and would like to spice them up with a bit of humor. The phrase “Fox News” is a guaranteed laugh-getter at almost any climate-science lecture. I’ve seen it work in person).

But I digress: now, back to Ralph Keeling.

Once a year (in May), the Scripps-Birch Aquarium hosts the Charles David Keeling Memorial Lecture (MC’d by Dr. Ralph Keeling). While waiting in line outside the Keeling Lecture venue a couple of years ago, I noticed that Dr. Keeling was standing in line behind me.

The event organizer then stepped outside the door and noticed Dr. Keeling standing in line. She called out to him, “You are a very important person here; you don’t need to stand in line. Come right on in”.

His reply? “Everyone here is important. I’ll just wait in line”.

And that he did; he continued to wait in line and filed into the lecture hall along with everone else.

That apple didn’t roll far from the tree. Dr. Ralph Keeling is truly a gentleman and a scholar.

Kevin Jones

Great story, caerbannog. Over the years I’ve met some great scientists and been struck by their humility, earthiness (makes sense ’cause their earth scientists!) and accessibility. Kind of makes you want to listen to what they have to say….

Ryan in New England

Wonderful story, caerbannog, thank you for that🙂 It’s knowing how great most of these scientists are, their humility, their respect for others, their tireless efforts to expand humanity’s knowledge, that gets me so furious when crackpot deniers dismiss them as con-artists and know-nothings…when the deniers themselves are usually the embodiment of Dunning-Kruger.

Yes, reservoir levels are recharging.🙂 There’s a huge ground water deficit to make up, though. Some areas have been subsiding very rapidly – from May 2014 to January 2015 total subsidence due to ground water depletion around Corcoran, CA was about three feet, according to NASA.

Maybe the California state government ought to drill injection wells getting water from ponds built along the California aqueduct system. Then when we have these events, water could be quickly injected down into the affected aquifers, supplied by the reservoirs.

Apparently other sources of water are being considered for aquifer storage and recovery including runoff and water from sewage treatment plants. One problem is clogging of injection wells by particulates. Another problem is legal control of the injected water.

You know, in the fruit juice and beer industries, they use diatomaceous earth filters to remove particulates and clarify their products. One would think that a series of filters including sand and diatomaceous earth, along with flocculation could help the clogging problem. And then there is backflushing, I guess. Maybe a device that works like a pool vacuum could periodically vacuum out the wells to remove particulates.

The USGS says hydrological and geological knowledge of the aquifer is necessary for aquifer storage and recovery, to prevent unintended consequences.

I also read, though I can’t recall where, that a lot of California’s aquifers exist in ground that is clay-like. The problem there is that when water is removed the pressure of the above ground squeezes the clay together, eliminating the void that was previously occupied by water, leading to subsidence but also eliminating the ability for the aquifer to store as much water in the future. So California is not just losing water from their aquifers, they are also losing the ability of those aquifers to recharge fully to pre-drought levels no matter how much rain they get. Like many effects of climate change, and climate change itself, we are doing things that can’t be undone.

Well, Californians might be willing to tolerate small earthquakes to recharge groundwater, but not for fracking. I know I would, and I am a homeowner with cracks in my drywall when the house moves and settles.

Some of the aquifers can be recharged, likely, and some cannot. Recharge the ones that can, if we can find the water to do that.

And stop allowing the clay aquifers to collapse. Stop digging – do what we can. Like the USGS says, the first step is knowledge. And we need to stop making unsustainable withdrawals from the ground water. That’s going to require regulation, and permits, and meters on private wells, likely. There was one guy near Merced, CA, who was selling billions of gallons of water he was pumping out of wells on his land with big pumps last year. That has to stop, I think.

Dan in Oz

I am in no way under-estimating the drought and its impact in SoCal, but here in Perth, Australia we have the lowest dam levels we’ve had in years (not sure if it’s at record lows – don’t have the data to hand). The aggregate level of our various dams is just below 24% of capacity. Granted, we are now at the end of our summer, and entering autumn, but that’s pretty awful. And the next potential for rain is about 22/23 March, so another 2 weeks or so with no rain at all.
The 2 million people of Perth rely on 2 desalination plants. They have various environmental issues with them, hyper-saline hot water discharge being one of them. However, on the plus side, the first one had a wind farm built in conjunction with it, so its power needs are offset by the turbines. Originally it was meant to be 100% offset, but I’m not sure what the reality is. Interestingly that was done by a Labor Government. The one done by the Liberal government (right of centre conservatives) had a much looser set of renewable energy initiatives to off set the power needs.

– “record global warming intensified, low Latitude moisture flood as its tail end reached all the way to the Equator itself.
…
With Spring on the way, with so much moisture still bleeding off the Pacific, with a record level of global warming greatly amping up the hydrological cycle, and with a trough development tendency setting up for this region — this particular extreme rainfall event may, sadly, be but the first of many this season.”

Cento

dnem

Neven has a post this morning that I thought folks here would appreciate:

An 80-thousand pound metaphor crashed through the ice in the Northwest Territories Saturday in the form of an off-white Western Star fuel tanker.

The CBC reports that the tanker was carrying heating fuel to Deline, a town of about 500 near the Great Bear Lake. The accident happened just three days after the territory’s transportation department raised the allowable weight on the Great Bear Ice Crossing from 10,000 kilograms to 40,0000 [you have got to be kidding; N].

The truck is currently semi-submerged in the top portion of the ice, which one official estimates to be between 100 and 120 centimetres thick. No one was injured in the incident.

The symbolism of a fuel truck trapped in the ice in Canada’s north will not be lost on anyone who follows news from the scientific community about climate change.

Andy in SD

Ryan in New England

Aren’t hydrocarbon-based fuels less dense than water, making the tanker likely to float whether it is full of air or fuel? I’m not trying to be a smart ass here, I’m actually curious about the answer. I Googled it and wasn’t satisfied with the single relevant hit I got.

Andy in SD

The weight of diesel fuel is slightly temperature dependent, but for the purposes of this discussion, lets say it is 7.5 pounds per gallon (and water is 8). So, if the tanker is carrying, say, 5000 gallons, that fuel will weigh 37,500 pounds while the water it displaces weighs 40,000 pounds, a difference (and resulting buoyancy) of 2500 pounds. However, the metal in the tanker trailer alone weighs much more than that, thus the trailer has a net negative buoyancy, not counting the tractor.

Ryan in New England

That was an enjoyable and very extensive article. I really enjoyed this phrase;

In an average year, some two hundred million tons of sediment are in transport in the river. This is where the foreland Rockies go, the western Appalachians. Southern Louisiana is a very large lump of mountain butter, eight miles thick where it rests upon the continental shelf, half that under New Orleans,

It’s almost magical to think that the mountains I have stood on in the Rockies, and also those in Appalachia, get transported one particle at a time down the Mississippi to make the “mountain butter” that is the delta.

Yes, we need to remember that even as the rain falls and the reservoirs fill, there are millions of dead trees in California forests. Groundwater is still severely depleted, and some places in the Central Valley have subsided more than 10 feet due to groundwater depletion. Forests are full of dead wood and vulnerable to fires and insect infestations, and so on.

These rains are from the pineapple express, from Hawaii, not from the cold northern storms that used to fill the Sierras with snow every year, regular as clockwork, I think.

So, any rain is welcome, but if the drought is tied to the loss of Arctic sea ice, that loss is permanent and so the drought will be permanent, at least in our lifetimes, I think. We can hope that the drought in California is not tied to the loss of Arctic sea ice, and was a random phenomenon. But the once in a millennium nature of this drought argues against chance alone. Another hope is that the pineapple express from Hawaii will ramp up as the northern storm track ramps down.

The levels of the climate gas methane is increasing more than expected at measuring stations both on Svalbard and in Southern Norway.

Director of the Norwegian Environment Directorate, Ellen Hambro, said that the development gives reason for concern: “It is very disturbing that the concentration of methane and CO₂ are increasing. It shows once again the urgency of implementing measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions both in the short and long term.”

Ryan in New England

Greg

From Jeff Masters:http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/flash-flood-emergency-in-northern-lousiana-over-a-foot-of-rain-in-24-
“near-record levels of atmospheric moisture for this time of year–more than 200% of average–remain in place over the region, and renewed rounds of heavy rain are likely through Friday. Extreme flooding rains were spreading into Southern Arkansas on Wednesday morning, and rainfall amounts of a foot in 24 hours are possible there, as well. Additional major flash flooding over the next few days is also possible in Houston, San Antonio, Austin, Shreveport, Little Rock, Memphis and New Orleans….A large low pressure system (a “cut-off” low) has separated from the jet stream, and will stay parked over the U.S./Mexico border region during the next few days. The counter-clockwise flow of air around this low is bringing up plenty of warm, moisture-laden air from the tropics along the east side of the low, causing the heavy rains we’ve observed. By this weekend, when all of this rain has had time to flow into area rivers, expect to see several rivers crest at near-record flood levels. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are near average over the Gulf of Mexico, which will keep the amount of moisture available to this week’s storms lower than would be the case if SSTs were unusually warm. However, the cut-off low has tapped into a moisture source in the deep tropics over the Eastern Pacific where SSTs are record warm.”

Fantastic follow-up by Dr. Masters as usual. Man is this event huge. Should have pointed out the risk of getting a cut-off low of this kind with such a huge dip in the Jet. Prayers and concerns for everyone in the flood zone.

Greg

Re DT above: “– Some visually inspiring symmetry of the cloud/moisture plumes:
Of course the rain in Acapulco is a direct result of <-5 SD trough digging into Mexico at the moment."
five-sigma corresponds to a p-value, or probability, of 3×10-7, or about 1 in 3.5 million.

cushngtree

There’s a video in there toward the end of some man trying to get across the flooded parking lot in a shopping cart, so he doesn’t get his feet wet. Makes no progress. Just seemed such an apt metaphor for how TPTB are dealing with climate change in general. Sigh…

Ouch. That’s pretty extreme. And it’s all in a region that’s now undergoing rapid permafrost thaw. I’d say maybe we should be using the hashtag #dontincreasetheweightclass . Because, well, we don’t want climate change to become a real heavyweight kind of problem.

Seventeen major environmental groups are calling on Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) to hold prompt confirmation hearings and a vote on President Obama’s nominee to the Supreme Court.

In a brief but pointed letter to be sent to the offices of McConnell and Reid on Tuesday, leaders of the groups argue that Obama has the right to fill Supreme Court vacancies during the entirety of his term, and that it is the Senate’s duty to move the process forward. The letter is signed by leaders of the Sierra Club, Natural Resources Defense Council, Greenpeace USA, Friends of the Earth, Earthjustice and others.

Republicans show complete disrespect to both the court and the American people. The most recent in a long chain of politically-charged lock-downs of the functioning of the US government. It would be one thing if republicans decided to do this now after being helpful and cooperative for the last 8 years. It would be one thing if the court did not need to rule on some of the most critical issues ever to face the American people — such as an energy transition and climate change. However, what we see here is just the latest attempt to sabotage the US political system.

Another excerpt from the article:
“On Wednesday, Clinton will appear at a $575-a-head fundraising lunch at a Ritz-Carlton Hotel on the Northern California coast hosted by Alisa Wood, a partner at the international private equity firm Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. (KKR).”

This is sickening and speaks volumes.

Heck, we could throw in a “W” quote here that would apply to the gathering at The Ritz—- when speaking at a white tie charity event George W. Bush said:
“This is an impressive crowd — the haves and the have mores. Some people call you the elite — I call you my base.” -GWB 2000

The world endured a warm year as President Roosevelt wrangled with crippling drought during the first year of his second term. Scientists now say global temperatures that year, in 1937, were record-breaking for the time. The heat record fell again two years later. More records were set in 1940, 1941 and 1944.

For the first time, climate scientists have identified greenhouse gas pollution’s role in global temperatures measured during record-breaking years back to 1937, as industrialized cities and nations continued burning coal to power factories and trains.

-“What we found was that we could actually detect human influence on extreme events a lot earlier than we’d thought,” said Daniel Mitchell, an Oxford University physicist who researches climate change. He was part of an international team of scientists that published the findings this week in Geophysical Research Letters.

Syd Bridges

– A telling statement there Syd — thanks. It’s something I have been assuming in a FF burning (car) culture.

‘By fuel combustion man has added about 150,000 million tons of carbon dioxide to the air during the past half century. The author estimates from the best available data that approximately three quarters of this has remained in the atmosphere.’

The internal combustion engine equals the intake of a volume of fuel (petroleum) and air (O2) followed by an explosive combustion which expels hot toxic gases and partially combusted debris.
All to turn a crank to rotate a wheel, to propel a multi ton slab of pig iron and plastic across an asphalt crust — at one’s pleasure.
A lot of breathable oxygen is burned to create heat and CO2, etc. solely for locomotion on demand.
OUT

wili

Excerpts from Jim White’s AGU presentation on abrupt CC. Ice cores show that temperatures in parts of Greenland rose one degree C per year for five years in a row. Elsewhere on Greenland there is evidence of a 10 degree C rise in just year or two! He also points out that sea level has risen in the past as fast as a meter every 20-30 years.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PORTLAND HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
FORCE WIND WARNING…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM PST
THIS EVENING. THIS IS IN ADDITION TO THE STORM WARNING WHICH IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING.

– Stuart Tomlinson ‏@ORweather 32m32 minutes ago

Hurricane force wind warning just one of a handful since @NWSPortland was authorized to issue in Dec. 2007.

Mblanc

Colorado Bob

A Flash Flood Emergency has been declared in Northwest Louisiana, including the city of Shreveport, where over a foot of rain fell in just 24 hours, from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning. At Shreveports’s Barksdale Air Force Base, 13.16″ had fallen as of 10 am EST Wednesday, and over 14 inches of rain fell just to the southeast of Shreveport near Bossier City.

Colorado Bob

Almarai, the largest dairy business in Saudi Arabia, has purchased land in California to grow alfalfa for its cattle – and it’s rubbing some people the wrong way

If you are the largest dairy producer in Saudi Arabia and you are running out of water to grow cattle feed, there’s only one thing to do if you want to stay in business: go shopping.

Which is exactly what dairy giant Almarai has done, undertaking a global search for land and water to grow alfalfa to feed its dairy cows. The search brought Almarai to a most surprising place: California, which is suffering its worst drought in recorded history.

Earlier this year, the company announced that it had paid $31.8m for 1,790 acres of land near Blythe, in the southeastern corner of California, for the sole purpose of growing alfalfa. Known as lucerne in some parts of the world, alfalfa is a member of the pea family, growing up to 1 meter high with small purple flowers and leaves that resemble clover. Almarai will grow the crop using water diverted from the Colorado River, then ship it back to Saudi Arabia to feed Almarai’s estimated 1m dairy cows, helping to ensure it remains the number one dairy producer in a nation of 30 million people.

wili

At a sprawling complex in the Saudi desert, 90 miles southeast of Riyadh, dozens of black and white Holstein cows amble from their sandy surroundings into air-conditioned milking halls. Inside, they take their places on a motorized, rotating corral and are milked by machines while munching on shredded alfalfa and being misted with water.

It’s all well and good so long as resources are abundant. But what happens when food prices skyrocket in the US as a result of a combined global warming impact and a good portion of our arable land being owned by overseas interests? Does the US government deny food exports and put a lock down on foreign agricultural holdings to prevent unrest here? And if so, what happens to the global geopolitical environment. This particular policy has unintended consequences written all over it.

Colorado Bob

For the first time scientists have looked at the net balance of the three major greenhouse gases—carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide—for every region of Earth’s landmasses. They found surprisingly, that human-induced emissions of methane and nitrous oxide from ecosystems overwhelmingly surpass the ability of the land to soak up carbon dioxide emissions, which makes the terrestrial biosphere a contributor to climate change. The results published in the March 10, 2016, Nature, revises our understanding of how human activity contributes to global warming.

Ryan in New England

This mangled jet stream has done its part in delivering outrageous temperatures to my home state. In Connecticut we had an official high today of 81 degrees. 81 degrees on March 9th sets a few records. It beats our previous high by 11 degrees. This is also our warmest March day overall. And another record, this is the earliest in the year we have ever hit the 80 degree mark. This temperature is our normal daytime high for the first day of astronomical Summer, but today it isn’t even Spring yet. We completely skipped an entire season.

And the local news is treating this as the greatest gift ever and the most wonderful thing one could ask for. It makes me nuts! This warm day is like a heroin addict’s first high, it’s the first step in a life destroying downward spiral that ends in total disaster.

Ryan in New England

A US court will decide whether 21 young people can sue the US government over the failure to address climate change. Predictably, all the major corporations who stand to lose have lined up against these brave kids, who are joined by the courageous Dr James Hansen.

Greg

…Continued delay in implementing serious climate remedies challenges the vision of our Founders, eviscerating fundamental constitutional guarantees. Congress and the President manifestly lack the requisite resolve. Accordingly, the Court should immediately order the government to develop and implement a climate recovery plan. Effective measures, in my view, should include a rising fee on carbon emissions to ensure that fossil fuel industry
costs now imposed on our health and our children’s future are accounted for in energy purchase and investment decisions. Such a plan could pave the way for deep decarbonization of our industrial system, and guide effective international action.
It will take such a court order to extricate our nation from the looming danger that our
government’s actions have done so much to bring about. Our children’s lives, their prospects, and the Blessings of Liberty we are obliged to secure for them, hang in
the balance.

Ryan in New England

Thanks Greg🙂 Hansen is amazing, and he should be celebrated and known by every person in this country. Sadly, far more Americans are concerned with the Kardashians than the currently unfolding catastrophe that will make their futures very uncertain, and likely far worse in every measure than what they experience today. Our culture in America is disgusting and embarrassing.

Syd Bridges

Yet another vindication for Francis and Varvus. If one thinks of the jet stream as a river on a floodplain, then I guess the cut-off low is the equivalent of an oxbow lake. But the dip to Mexico is staggering. With so much warmth still coming off the Pacific, and the Atlantic circulation backing up off the eastern seaboard, we may see much more wild weather this summer.

Ryan in New England

A piece by Bill McKibben about us crossing the 2C threshold (on a daily timescale), the seriousness of our situation juxtapositioned with the lack of seriousness among the Presidential debates (particularly the Republicans).

Bill, as ever, writes on this subject beautifully and eloquently. The lack of urgency on this issue among republicans is probably the greatest political crime of our time. It is just sick all the effort put in to protect fossil fuels from a necessary energy transition that is now happening far too late.

Ryan in New England

There are people in my apartment complex with their air conditioners on right now, in CT, in the beginning of March. This is totally unreal! Robert, I’m sure you’re seeing some crazy temperatures in your neck of the woods as well, right?

Ryan in New England

Mark from OZ

Slightly OT, but a related development in the ‘critter’ world who often get overlooked.

European wasps in Australia (like other introduced species) can create some ‘issues’; stinging issues to be precise. Normally, their populations are moderated by freezing temps ( Euro heritage) and although Canberra can occasionally go sub-freezing, the overall rise in average temps here is being matched by a rise in the # of nests.

“They’ll also hunt you down for a couple of hundred metres if you threaten their nest, as CoreEnviro Solutions senior pest and weed officer, Jim Bariesheff was reminded on Wednesday.”

Unsurprisingly, not a mention as to the ‘why’ the increase’ in numbers–SMH is owned by Fairfax. Like so many ‘developments’, the e-wasp will be categorized as a ‘pest’ and dealt with suitably; extermination being the preferred pathway.

Andy in SD

Reading through the Colorado basin projections. It appears calculations and forecasts indicate a 60+% chance of shortage in Lake Mead starting in 2018. 17 to 37% chance for 2017. That would be the 1050′ to 1075′ tier.

Jay M

Had another day of soaking rain in Portland, OR. Again, it looks to me like the energy pushed towards PNW and less so to California. Looks like CA will get more as this series of pulses of energy develop over the next few days. Kind of confusing,trying to translate the mass media, which is currently convinced that the atmospheric river is ready to hit CA. If so, might get a deluge. I’m a former SF resident and think if is an important area because it is a large economic zone.

Mark from OZ

One for you, dt.
Seems like just about everything we know deteriorates over time. Exceptions might include our fondest memories, veneration of great people and ideas, and cherished music.

And despite what is occurring now, don’t we all still marvel at the unrelenting power and beauty and source of all energy;and in our own personal way, that permanent, but seemingly temporary, ‘connection’ to the sun?

Abel Adamski

Walt Kelly, the cartoonist who created Pogo, used the phrase in a couple of ways, none more memorable than a 1970 poster for the first Earth Day. Pogo, having tripped over debris in his home swamp, paused to look back at all the trash and said his famous saying. It hit home at the time, reminding people that they were responsible for the state of the earth, that they could make a difference and that they could multiply that difference if they all worked together.

Today, we need to apply that attitude to what we say as well as what we do. If we keep talking about the icy grip of winter when it has provided more of a lukewarm hug, we miss the chance to confront the reality that is manmade climate change.

Imagine if every unseasonably warm forecast by a TV meteorologist was framed in the reality of the annual increase in temperatures. Imagine if instead of falling back on their faded wintry cliches, more anchors greeted the prospect of a 70-degree day in March by saying, “Well, that’s about what you can expect with all this global warming.”

It’s a small step but one that could help frame the conversation we need to have, one way to provide a constant reminder about what is happening, why it is happening and how important it is we start to do things to stop it from happening.

Ryan in New England

A leaked European commission proposal would “open the gates to over-fishing”. I would point out that over-fishing is already occurring and allowing increased fishing is simply suicidal. It’s like the world is doing everything it can to guarantee that our society collapses this century.

Ryan in New England

In an agreement with Canada, the Obama administration announced that the EPA will limit methane emissions from exiting oil and gas facilities, in an effort to reduce methane emissions from oil and gas 40-45% below 2012 levels by 2025.

Ryan in New England

Here’s a good article by Dr. Larry P.Atkinson (a professor of oceanography and fairly new blogger at Wunderground) about the Gulf Stream, how we measure it, and what a slowdown would mean for sea level. Something I didn’t know prior is that we measure the current off of Florida thanks to abandoned phone lines on the ocean floor between the U.S. and the Bahamas. Very interesting.

Abel Adamski

“Human actions not only are emitting greenhouse gases based on our own activities, but also are causing plants and animals and microbes to be net emitters of greenhouse gases as well,” said Anna Michalak, a co-author of the study with the Carnegie Institution for Science in Stanford, Calif.

State Dinner tonight for Canadian Prime Minister:
WASHINGTON — Justin Trudeau, the prime minister of Canada, met with President Obama on Thursday for the first state visit by a Canadian leader in 19 years, a diplomatic honor made possible in part by new pledges of cooperation on combating climate change.

Cate

All sounding good, but I’ll wait for the proof of the pudding. Canada is still going to be drilling in the North. We’re still planning pipelines and new deepwater ports for exporting fossil fuels. The messages coming out of Ottawa are very mixed indeed.

Whoa, a first! Sitting waiting for my car at the local garage and one of the customers and a garage guy started talking about the extremely hot weather yesterday (Vermont) and agreeing how weird it is that people still deny global warming. Extraordinary. Unfortunately.

mlparrish

Same, a first for me yesterday. Reading a book in the hospital waiting room. Old, grizzled veteran asked what, and when he found out it was Fred Pearce’s “With Speed and Violence” went on to say, unprompted – paraphrased but he covered it tersely in about 4 sentences – ‘Anyone who grew up and looks outside can see that, it is a disaster happening, how can people deny it and not do anything’!

The thing is that this issue has been suppressed for so long that when it breaks out, it will break out with a vengeance. My sense is that it will be a huge, huge deal this election. And the republicans well get creamed if we can just manage to communicate how much damage they’ve done.

Greg

An excellent new piece in the Atlantic monthly :”The Obama Doctrine–The U.S. president talks through his hardest decisions about America’s role in the world. By Jeffrey Goldberg

RS- it’s right up your alley. One thought I have is whether historians will accurately, or not, consider the American tilt away from the Middle East as shown in this article about the Obama Doctrine, a defining chapter to the story of the end of the age of oil.

Lots of foreign policy here but also some climate change thinking. ““Climate change is a potential existential threat to the entire world if we don’t do something about it.” Obama explained that climate change worries him in particular because “it is a political problem perfectly designed to repel government intervention. It involves every single country, and it is a comparatively slow-moving emergency, so there is always something seemingly more urgent on the agenda.”

Colorado Bob

A remarkably rare atmospheric event is unfolding over Mexico and the Southern U.S., where an upper-level low pressure system of unprecedented strength in the historical record for that location has stalled out, bringing multiple days of torrential rain to the Southern U.S. and snow to the mountains of Mexico. The upper low tapped into an atmospheric river of moisture from both the Western Caribbean and the Eastern Pacific, bringing rainfall amounts one would expect to occur only once every 200 years (a 0.5% chance of occurrence in a given year) over portions of northern Louisiana. According to the latest NOAA Storm Summary, as of 9 am EST Thursday, the city of Monroe, Louisiana had received 17.25″ of rain since Monday, and Shreveport had picked up 16.70″ at Barksdale Air Force Base. The heavy rains led to numerous high water rescues, evacuation of at least 3,500 homes, and closures of hundred of roads. Portions of two interstate highways in northern Louisiana–I-20 and I-49–were closed on Thursday morning due to flooding, according to KSLA.com. Three drownings have been reported since Monday from the storm system–one each in Texas, Oklahoma and Louisiana.

Greg

JPL

My heart really goes out to all of the folks whose houses are affected by flooding. The toll it takes on you mentally, emotionally, financially trying to deal with the aftermath is so tough. It can be one of those setbacks in life that is extraordinarily difficult to recover from, especially if you were already in a precarious financial position, and with each degree C of temp rise it’s only going to get worse.

– Does that long finger at frame right and reaching up towards UK and Greenland also add warm moisture to the Arctic? Tie in the half loop going through US South and up and out into the Atlantic — it looks like a huge fish hook. Can the two combine?
(Just thinking about what I’m seeing — and trying to make sense of it.)

That’s the downstream implication I was mentioning earlier. You get a big dip in one spot, you’re bound to get a big northward drive somewhere else.

They don’t really combine as such. Think of the El Nino related moisture and heat as throwing a big bolder into the stream that increases atmospheric heat and moisture flow along the Equator. Now think of polar warming as another big bolder that produces these eddies running down toward that added heat and moisture. The two converge and bam — you’ve got a problem.

Now the big dip over NA had aided in pushing up the amplitude of the Barents meridional flow for the next few days. And that’s another warm air train wreck for the Arctic.

A federal jury awarded two Dimock Twp. couples $4.24 million today after finding Cabot Oil & Gas responsible for contaminating their well water.

The verdict comes following 8.5 hours of deliberations over two days.

The decision following the 14-day trial is a huge victory for Nolen Scott Ely, his wife, Monica-Marta Ely and Raymond and Victoria Hubert, who pursued the case for six years after rejecting a settlement offer in 2012.

Ryan in New England

Researchers from Utah State University found that the Beehive State’s Great Salt Lake has shrunk by 48 percent since 1847. Meanwhile, Lake Poopó, Bolivia’s second-largest lake, is died up and may be beyond recovery.
…
“There’s no doubt about it, Great Salt Lake is shrinking,” Wayne Wurtsbaugh, lead author on the paper, said. “Though we’ve witnessed droughts and floods in recent decades, impacts of water diversions have decreased the lake’s level by 11 feet.”

Canada’s Unmuzzled Scientists Call for Protection From Future Muzzling
…
“Science should never be silenced again,” Debi Daviau, president of the Professional Institute of the Public Service of Canada (PIPSC), a union representing more than 15,000 federal scientists, said in a statement released Wednesday.

The scientists are merely pointing out the facts. Muzzling them just prevents people from understanding the truth of what’s happening in our world. It’s just wrong.

To this point, what should be clear here is that there’s a moral difference. One set of fuels is amoral and harmful. The other set is not. That’s what should be distinguished here. It’s like the difference between cigarrettes and healthy foods and exercise. One product is harmful, the other is beneficial. This should be clear to pretty much everyone with half a brain.

Oh how rich. This entire industry has funded organizations and think tanks in an effort to deny climate change. Now they want to say the shoe is on the other foot. So what if it is. Solar energy certainly isn’t going to wreck the climate. But burning oil, gas and coal absolutely will.