~ Information for Real Estate Buy-Sell-Invest in Ontario, Canada

The Bank of Canada stuck with its trend-setting interest rate Wednesday ,but it offered fresh, yet cautious, warnings to Canadians that increases are likely on the way.

The central bank has now left the rate locked at one per cent for two straight policy announcements after the strengthening economy prompted it to raise it twice in the summer.

In announcing the decision, the bank pointed to several recent positives that could support higher rates in the coming months. They included encouraging job and wage growth, sturdy business investment and the resilience of consumer spending despite higher borrowing costs and Canadians’ heavy debt loads.

On top of that, there’s increasing evidence in the economic data that the benefits from government infrastructure investments have begun to work their way through the economy, the bank said.

But on the other hand, the bank noted exports have slipped more than expected in recent months after a powerful start to the year, although it continues to predict trade growth to pick up due to rising foreign demand.

It also said the international outlook continues to face considerable uncertainty mostly because of geopolitical- and trade-related factors.

“While higher interest rates will likely be required over time, (the bank’s) governing council will continue to be cautious,” the bank said in a statement Wednesday that accompanied its decision.

It will be “guided by incoming data in assessing the economy’s sensitivity to interest rates, the evolution of economic capacity and the dynamics of both wage growth and inflation.”

The bank said inflation, a key factor in its rate decisions, has been slightly higher than anticipated and could stay that way in the short term because of temporary factors like stronger gasoline prices. Core inflation, which measures underlying inflation by omitting volatile items like gas, has continued to inch upwards.

Governor Stephen Poloz raised rates in July and September in response to an impressive economic run that began in late 2016. The hikes took back the two rate cuts he introduced in 2015 to help cushion, and stimulate, the economy from the collapse in oil prices.

From here, the bank must assess how to proceed with the interest rate while taking into consideration that Canadian households have amassed high levels of debt and the presence of still-hot housing markets in areas like Toronto and Vancouver.

Last month, the Bank of Canada flagged the steady climb of household debt and these real estate markets as the financial system’s top vulnerabilities.

The bank’s statement Wednesday said recent economic indicators have been in line with its October forecast, which projected a moderation following the country’s exceptional growth in the first half of 2017.

The document contained a few differences compared with the statement that accompanied its last rate announcement in October.

This time, the bank once again noted the unknowns over the future of trade policy, however, it did not specifically mention the ongoing renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement.

The recent downturn in Toronto's real estate market, brought on after Ontario introduced measures this spring including a foreign buyers' tax, is expected to be brief, the federal housing agency said Wednesday.

Property prices in the city which fell from an average of $919,589 in April to $793,915 last month, according to data from the Toronto Real Estate Board should pick up again due to supply constraints and a stronger economy, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. said.

"The response we're seeing in the Toronto market seems almost emotional and a knee-jerk reaction to some of the changes, which suggests that these impacts will be short-lived,'' Dana Senagama, CMHC's principal market analyst for Toronto, said during a conference call to discuss the agency's latest housing market assessment.

The provincial government's measures, which were retroactive to April 21, include a 15 per cent tax on foreign buyers in the Greater Golden Horseshoe region, expanded rent controls and legislation allowing Toronto and other cities to tax vacant homes.

"If job creation continues in Toronto ? and the economy continues to fuel the housing demand, we can expect some of the pressures on house prices in Toronto to resume,'' said Bob Dugan, CMHC's chief economist.

Like Toronto, Vancouver also experienced a real estate slowdown following the implementation of a tax on foreign buyers a year ago. But there have been signs this year that the city's housing market is heating up again.

In its latest quarterly house price survey released two weeks ago, Royal LePage said home sales in Vancouver began to recover in the April-to-June period after the tax “bruised consumer confidence.'' The realtor reported in April that sales in Vancouver's housing market jumped by almost 50 per cent on a month-over-month basis.

CMHC, in its latest housing market assessment released Wednesday, kept its overall risk rating for the national housing market at strong. The quarterly report, which is based on data from the first three months of this year, precedes the Ontario government housing rules.

New protections for condo owners and rules for managers and directors in Ontario are taking effect this fall.

Government and Consumer Services Minister Tracy MacCharles says more than one in 10 people in the province live in a condo and more than half of the new homes under construction are condos.

Starting this fall, new rules will make it easier for condo owners to participate in owners' meetings and will make it easier for them to access records of their condo corporation.

Directors will have to disclose whether they are owners or occupiers of units in the building or if they have interests in contracts involving the corporation, which MacCharles says will improve governance and address conflicts of interest.

Directors will also have to undergo training and there will be mandatory education requirements for condo managers applying for a general licence.

Two new administrative bodies will launch this fall :-the Condominium Authority of Ontario will provide education about condo owner rights and responsibilities and will manage the tribunal that resolves disputes about access to records, and -the Condominium Management Regulatory Authority of Ontario will regulate and licence condo managers.

The Ontario government has passed its Budget Measures Act which brings in new laws to tackle housing affordability.

The measures include a 15 per cent non-resident speculation tax targeting certain foreign buyers in the Greater Golden Horseshoe, including corporations and trusts.

The tax applies to all residential properties bought in the region from April 21 2017 but there will be rebates for those who become permanent Canadian residents within 4 years of purchase, who work in Ontario for a continuous 12 month period following purchase, and for foreign students subject to conditions.

“Our government is working to make life more affordable for everyone in Ontario,” commented Charles Sousa, Ontario’s finance minister, following the passing of the act Thursday. “This legislation will help to both address the recent price increases in our housing market.”

The lawmakers also passed legislation to reduce the cost of public transit for seniors.

The Bank of Canada is sticking with its trendsetting interest rate of 0.5 per cent, saying uncertainties continue to overshadow the economy’s stronger-than-expected start to the year.
In explaining its decision Wednesday to hold the rate, the central bank once again highlighted weak wage growth and the softening rate for underlying inflation as examples the economy still has room for improvement.

The bank’s scheduled rate announcement comes after it raised its 2017 growth projection last month following a surprisingly healthy start to the year in areas such as employment, consumer spending and the housing markets. In Wednesday’s statement, the bank added better business investment numbers to the list.

“Recent economic data have been encouraging,” the bank said.

“Consumer spending and the housing sector continue to be robust on the back of an improving labour market, and these are becoming more broadly based across regions.”

The bank’s statement, however, also predicted that the “very strong growth” over the first three months of the year will be followed by some moderation in the second quarter, even though at the same time it expects the U.S. economy to rebound.

Analysts had widely predicted governor Stephen Poloz to keep the rate locked at its very low level of 0.5 per cent, as significant unknowns underlined by the bank in the past continue to swirl around the U.S. agenda on trade and taxation.

“The uncertainties outlined in the April (monetary policy report) continue to cloud the global and Canadian outlooks,” said the bank, without making any specific mentions this time about the potential policy path of Canada’s largest trading partner.

With no monetary policy report released Wednesday, observers will scrutinize the commentary in the bank’s one-page statement for clues about its thinking on the trajectory of the economy.

The bank’s statement also said while recent government policy measures on real estate have contributed to more sustainable outlooks for household debt, the rules have yet to have a substantial cooling effect on hot housing markets.

On core inflation, the bank noted that recent readings for its three measures, which reduce the influence of some more volatile consumer items like gasoline, have stayed below its ideal target of two per cent. That signals the entire economy has yet to catch up to the recent momentum.

The Ontario government has announced 16 new housing measures, what it calls a comprehensive housing package aimed at cooling a red-hot real estate market on Thursday.

Here are those 16 proposed measures:

A 15-per-cent non-resident speculation tax to be imposed on buyers in the Greater Golden Horseshoe area who are not citizens, permanent residents or Canadian corporations.

Expanded rent control that will apply to all private rental units in Ontario, including those built after 1991, which are currently excluded.

Updates to the Residential Tenancies Act to include a standard lease agreement, tighter provisions for “landlord’s own use” evictions, and technical changes to the Landlord-Tenant Board meant to make the process fairer, as well as other changes.

A program to leverage the value of surplus provincial land assets across the province to develop a mix of market-price housing and affordable housing.

Legislation that would allow Toronto and possibly other municipalities to introduce a vacant homes property tax in an effort to encourage property owners to sell unoccupied units or rent them out.

A plan to ensure property tax for new apartment buildings is charged at a similar rate as other residential properties.

A five-year, $125-million program aimed at encouraging the construction of new rental apartment buildings by rebating a portion of development charges.

More flexibility for municipalities when it comes to using property tax tools to encourage development.

The creation of a new Housing Supply Team with dedicated provincial employees to identify barriers to specific housing development projects and work with developers and municipalities to find solutions.

An effort to understand and tackle practices that may be contributing to tax avoidance and excessive speculation in the housing market.

A review of the rules real estate agents are required to follow to ensure that consumers are fairly represented in real estate transactions.

The launch of a housing advisory group which will meet quarterly to provide the government with ongoing advice about the state of the housing market and discuss the impact of the measures and any additional steps that are needed

Education for consumers on their rights, particularly on the issue of one real estate professional representing more than one party in a real estate transaction.

A partnership with the Canada Revenue Agency to explore more comprehensive reporting requirements so that correct federal and provincial taxes, including income and sales taxes, are paid on purchases and sales of real estate in Ontario.

Set timelines for elevator repairs to be established in consultation with the sector and the Technical Standards & Safety Authority.

Provisions that would require municipalities to consider the appropriate range of unit sizes in higher density residential buildings to accommodate a diverse range of household sizes and incomes, among other things.

The Canadian Press has learned that the Ontario government will place a 15-per-cent tax on non-resident foreign buyers as part of a much-anticipated package of housing measures to be unveiled today.

The measures are aimed at cooling down a red-hot real estate market in the Greater Toronto Area, where the average price of detached houses rose to $1.21 million last month, up 33.4 per cent from a year ago.

Premier Kathleen Wynne and Finance Minister Charles Sousa have said the measures will target speculators, expedite more housing supply, tackle rental affordability and look at realtor practices.
Sousa says investing in real estate is not a bad thing, but he wants speculators to pay their fair share.
He says the measures will also look at how to expedite housing supply, and he has appeared receptive to Toronto Mayor John Tory’s call for a tax on vacant homes.
Sousa has also raised the issue of bidding wars, and has suggested realtor practices will be dealt with in the housing package.
The Liberals have also said that the government is developing a “substantive” rent control reform that could see rent increase caps applied to all residential buildings or units. Currently, they only apply to buildings constructed before November 1991.

The Bank of Canada held its trendsetting interest rate unchanged on Wednesday, despite a recent run of stronger-than-expected data, saying it believes the economy has yet to show it can stick to the higher growth trajectory

In holding the rate at 0.5 per cent, the central bank said it also considered significant uncertainties still weighing on its outlook, including the potentially adverse impacts of the U.S. economic agenda.

Canadian growth exceeded the bank’s expectations and it now predicts real gross domestic product will expand at an annual rate of 2.6 per cent in 2017 up from its January forecast of 2.1 per cent.
The recent improvement, it said, was largely fuelled by unexpectedly robust residential investment as well as temporary factors such as the resumption of expenditures in the energy sector and the consumer-spending lift from bigger child-benefit cheques.

However, the bank noted export growth was uneven and that there were signs of weakness in areas like business investment and within underlying employment indicators such as hours worked and wages.

“While the recent rebound in GDP is encouraging, it is too early to conclude that the economy is on a sustainable growth path,”the bank said in a news release that explained its interest rate decision.

TD Bank senior economist Brian DePratto said the bank is attempting to “throw cold water”on discussion that the economy has been improving.

“The growth outlook may be sunnier, but it seems to be all about the negatives for Governor Poloz,”DePratto said in a research note.
“Poloz remains focused on the soft spots in Canadian labour markets and exports, and is not yet ready to declare Canada ‘out of the woods’ when it comes to unevenness in economic growth.”

Beyond 2017, the bank predicted growth will moderate and become more balanced.

It anticipates greater contributions from exports and business investment. The bank also expects the powerful pace of household spending particularly in residential investment to eventually slow next year as debt levels and borrowing costs rise.

For this year, however, the bank believes hot housing markets in cities like Toronto will help residential investment deliver a “significantly higher” contribution to Canada’s growth performance than it had anticipated in January.

The bank also warned that climbing real estate prices in the Toronto area appear to now be driven, in part, by speculation.
Economic growth, it said, is now expected to expand by 1.9 per cent in 2018, down from the bank’s January forecast of 2.1 per cent, and to hit 1.8 per cent in 2019.

The future, however, looks murky.

The statement said the bank’s governing council was “mindful of the significant uncertainties” faced by the Canadian economy.

In its quarterly monetary policy report, which was also released Wednesday, the bank said its outlook once again factored in some of the effects caused by ongoing unknowns around the potential introduction of U.S. changes, especially in relation to trade and fiscal policies.

With the timing of any U.S. policy changes still unclear, the bank said its base-case projection includes only the estimated impact of

“prolonged and elevated trade policy uncertainty” on trade and investment in Canada and internationally.
Changes under discussion in the U.S. include the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement, corporate and personal tax cuts, regulatory easing and a potential border tariff.

The bank said Canadian firms “remain wary” over potential U.S.-related developments that could increase protectionism and reduce competitiveness in the event of corporate tax reductions and regulatory changes.

Due to an expected additional drag on global investment connected to U.S. trade policy uncertainty, the report included slightly lower projections for export growth in 2017 and 2018 compared to the bank’s earlier predictions.
The bank also pointed to the U.S. trade-policy unknowns, and the fact it now expects them to drag on longer than expected, in its decision to revise down its prediction for business investment in 2017.
“A notable increase in global protectionism remains the most-important source of uncertainty facing the Canadian economy,” the bank said.
Source:The Canadian Press

However, the added supply did not soften prices as high demand and competition between buyers saw the HPI benchmark price rise 28.6 per cent and the average sales price across the TREB area up 33.2 per cent to $916,567.

“Annual rates of price growth continued to accelerate in March as growth in sales outstripped growth in listings. A substantial period of months in which listings growth is greater than sales growth will be required to bring the GTA housing market back into balance. As policy makers seek to achieve this balance, it is important that an evidence-based approach is followed,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Director of Market Analysis.