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Tuesday, November 15, 2016

It's time for another edition of Renewology Swings of the Week. Which shows had the best and worst weeks in terms of Renewology odds? These numbers cover Week 8
of the 2016-17 season (November 7-13).Biggest R% Gainers:

Name

A18-49

Last

True

Last

R%

Last

Mom

1.5

+0.2

1.23

+0.12

73%

+22%

Life in Pieces

1.5

+0.2

1.40

+0.14

88%

+18%

The Great Indoors

1.7

+0.1

1.19

-0.03

48%

+11%

Pure Genius

0.9

0.0

1.04

-0.02

28%

+9%

The Last Man on Earth

1.1

+0.2

1.01

+0.08

74%

+8%

The Odd Couple

1.0

+0.1

1.05

+0.04

42%

+6%

Secrets and Lies

0.7

+0.1

0.88

+0.04

49%

+6%

Quantico

0.7

+0.1

0.99

-0.00

70%

+5%

Blue Bloods

1.3

+0.2

1.34

+0.14

83%

+5%

Superstore

1.2

+0.1

1.20

+0.04

93%

+5%

Mom / Life in Pieces / The Great Indoors: It was a big moving week for a lot of the CBS comedies, as week three growth for Mom finally sent it above the bubble where we all think it's "supposed" to be. I still think the True formula is right to be harsh to this show; it's hammocked by two above-average comedies, and its competition is two fractional dramas and a slightly-above-average drama. That's really an easy situation for a 9:00 weeknight. But ever since the Thursday Night Football acquisition, it's tended to premiere modestly and then pick up steam, and we seem headed in that direction again. Life in Pieces remains really impressive at 9:30, and The Great Indoors kept itself in the game with a week three uptick.

Secrets and Lies / Quantico: Though Quantico has dropped from its huge early-season R%, it has stabilized in recent weeks and we still list it as a renewal favorite (seemingly a major departure from the conventional wisdom). The True formula continues to posit that this is an extremely difficult timeslot, and Quantico continues to exhibit the massive DVR growth (+150%ish in recent Live+7 results) that would seem to back that up. This may end up going down as a pretty good test of whether the delayed DVR audience really does matter, as well as the whole notion of Sunday being the new Friday.

Biggest R% Decliners:

Name

A18-49

Last

True

Last

R%

Last

Blindspot

1.0

-0.1

0.93

-0.15

55%

-13%

Crazy Ex-Girlfriend

0.2

0.0

0.24

-0.05

47%

-13%

Criminal Minds

1.3

-0.3

1.20

-0.18

83%

-8%

MacGyver

1.1

0.0

0.98

-0.21

51%

-8%

Man with a Plan

1.4

+0.1

1.17

-0.19

46%

-7%

Code Black

0.9

+0.2

0.96

-0.02

33%

-7%

Rosewood

0.7

-0.1

0.84

-0.11

51%

-6%

Once Upon a Time

0.9

-0.2

0.82

-0.24

67%

-6%

The Exorcist

0.6

0.0

0.71

-0.08

23%

-6%

Dr. Ken

0.9

+0.1

0.85

-0.10

57%

-5%

Blindspot: The NBC sophomore had its worst point of the season by a wide margin, dropping to a new low while overall viewing spiked due to the end of DST. We still have it as basically a true bubble show, but that's because it's an average of the last three episodes... with just the 1.0 from last week, it would be a big underdog (somewhere in the low-30s). I'd still argue that it's at least a bubble show with the low-1's during DST, but it's gotta get back to that strength level in a hurry.

MacGyver: CBS' Friday lead-off drama is sort of in the same boat as Blindspot, failing to capitalize on the end of DST (while its fellow CBS Friday dramas rose to season high levels). The spike in overall viewing was really pronounced in the Friday 8/7c hour, up by well over 10% week-to-week and actually within a couple points of the same hour on Thursday. Maybe it will come back to earth a bit, and MacGyver will start to stack up better again. I think it should be a solid bit higher than what is currently listed, butit's still in a range where if it pulls a Limitless and comes back weaker after the new year, it could be in trouble.