I've studied the film industry, both academically and informally, for 25 years and extensively written about it for the last five years. My outlets for film criticism, box office commentary, and film-skewing scholarship have included The Huffington Post, Salon, and Film Threat. Follow me at @ScottMendelson.

The author is a Forbes contributor. The opinions expressed are those of the writer.

Weekend Box Office: 'Man Of Steel' Soars To $128 Million Debut

Since Man of Steel was actually a little front-loaded this weekend, it’s unfortunately going to matter whether or not you count that extra $12 million from the Thursday Wal-Mart screenings as part of the opening weekend or merely basically ‘bonus grosses’ to be counted exclusively as Thursday figures. So bear with me, as this might get a little complicated.

Man Of Steel debuted this weekend for a 3.25 day total of $128.7 million. If you count that whole figure as its opening weekend, then it not only trumps the $116.1 million debut of Alice In Wonderland for the second-best opening weekend for a non-sequel behind The Hunger Games‘s $152 million but becomes the 12th biggest debut ahead of the $128.1 million debut of Iron Man 2. But if you count just the $116.1 million Fri-Sun total as its opening weekend, which I generally do not, that puts Man Of Steel above the $110 million debut of Toy Story 3 for the June weekend record and ahead of Alice In Wonderland‘s $116.1 million but beyond the $121 million debut of Shrek the Third for the 15th biggest opening weekend in history. Big problems, I know…

For the sake of long-term guestimates, we’re using the full $128 million debut. Either way, this performance is both pretty terrific but not all that surprising for reasons I’ll get into below. The single day grosses for Man Of Steel were $12 million, $44 million, $36.3 million, and $36.3 million (thank you, Father’s Day). The film earned an A- from Cinemascore. It played 56% male, 62% over 30 years old, 59% 2D, and 12% IMAX (that’s $13.3 million in IMAX alone, good for an IMAX June record). The good news is that it’s more-than double the biggest DC Comics debut outside The Dark Knight ($158 million) and The Dark Knight Rises ($160 million). Next down the list is Watchmen ($55 million) and Green Lantern ($53 million) and the first four Batman films (Batman & Robin with $43 million, Batman Forever with $52 million, Batman Returns with $47 million, and Batman with $42 million respectively). The first three Batman films broke the opening weekend record in their day, with Batman Forever debuted this very day 18 years ago and scoring the first $20 million single day gross. This week we had a $21 million Thursday/midnight debut. It’s times like these that I feel like Tommy Lee Jones at the end of No Country For Old Men.

Of note, the 1978 Superman: The Movie actually broke the weekend record in December of 1978 and became only the second film to gross $10 million in a single weekend during its third weekend of national play (its debut was $7 million). The first film? Star Wars‘s 43rd weekend of theatrical play (a re-release of sorts, going from 103 theaters to 1705 theaters in July 1978). The other good news is that the film’s worldwide cume is $151 million, with most of the big markets set to debut next weekend. The film should reach its $225 million budget by the end of next weekend or early the next week with big overseas numbers padding out what could be a big second weekend drop due to the twin competition of Monsters University and World War Z.

Obviously credit goes to Warner Bros’ marketing department, which cut a series of emotionally potent trailers that actually hid most of the big action beats, even if they (grumble grumble) spoiled nearly every major emotional beat found in the film. Even the last minute action-filled teaser (titled ‘You are not alone’) and the NokiaNokia trailer were cut so quickly as to merely suggest action rather than give away specific scenes (although I’m glad I waited until after I saw the film to watch that Nokia trailer). Warner Bros. also successfully kept expectations low, offering official predictions of a $75 million debut weekend while even rival studios dared only speculate as high as $100 million. As such, the $125 million figure is now seen as ‘over performing’ and will be reporting as opening well above expectations.

But here’s the rub: the five-day Wed-Sun debut of Superman Returns, which was $83 million back in July, 2006, would be around $103 million today adjusted for inflation and about $118 million adjusted for a normal 3D/IMAX bump. As such, the much-anticipated, heavily-marketed, etc. etc. Man Of Steel sold 14.2 million tickets, or just a bit more than the 12.9 million tickets that Superman Returns sold in its official Wed-Sun debut weekend. So what seems like a massive improvement on its face is partially merely seven years of inflation and the aforementioned 3D/IMAX advantage. Truth be told, it’s not a slam on Man Of Steel (because a $128 million debut is an unmitigated triumph for pretty much anything outside of a The Avengers 2 or Avatar 2) but just reinforces that Superman Returns, which earned $200 million domestic and $395 million worldwide, wasn’t so much a bomb as a massively over-budgeted tent-pole which couldn’t deliver record-breaking numbers to justify its $270 million budget.

Man Of Steel‘s performance is almost identical to the Memorial Day 2007 debut of Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End. That third Pirates film opened with $13 million in Thursday sneaks and grossed $127 million by Sunday and $114 million over the traditional Fri-Sun opening weekend. Of course that film’s Monday was Memorial Day, which gave way to a $25 million Monday gross, something Man Of Steel will not get to (think closer to Toy Story 3′s 15 million). The third Pirates of the Caribbean film ended its domestic run with $309 million while Iron Man 2 opened with $128 million and ended with $312 million, so that’s probably a good closing point for Man Of Steel. The worst case scenario is that the film is front-loaded and/or gets buried by the title wave of competition (World War Z, Monsters University, The Heat, White House Down, The Lone Ranger, and Despicable Me 2 just over the next three weekends) and plays closer to Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows part I ($125m/$295m).

$400 million isn’t going to happen (this isn’t Toy Story 3 or Spider-Man), but $300 million domestic seems likely barring a collapse next weekend, especially as it will be keeping its IMAX screens for a full month until Pacific Rim on July 12th. Of course, much of the budget has already been partially covered by $170 million worth of endorsement deals (innocent civilians get to die in buildings with overtly established company logos), and the overseas roll-out next weekend should be huge. It’s already earned $71.6 million in international waters this weekend for a $200 million worldwide debut. The big question is of course which side of the critical divide audiences end up on, since the film doesn’t just need to make money but establish excitement for Man Of Steel 2 coming summer 2015 (starring… uh… Chiwetel Ejiofor as Lex Luthor?) and the eventual Justice League film coming summer… 2018? But for the moment, Man Of Steel has reaffirmed DC Comics as a viable brand for big-scale tent poles just as Marvel did with Iron Man five years ago. So far, so good…

There were other films in release this weekend aside from Man Of Steel, with one other wide release. This Is the End opened on Wednesday and pulled in a solid $20.5 million over the Fri-Sun portion and $32.8 million over its five-day debut. The ‘Seth Rogen, James Franco, and countless other comedy stars’ apocalypse comedy cost $32 million to produce, so it’s going to be a very profitable piece of counter-programming. It’s tracking relatively close to the $36 million five-day debut of Tropic Thunder back in late summer 2008, which ended up crossing $100 million. Next weekend will tell the tale for This Is the End. Sofia Coppola’s The Bling Ring, which stars Emma Watson as one of a group of young teens who burglarized the homes of LA celebrities, earned $210,000 in five theaters for a superb $42,000 per-screen average. It goes wider next weekend.

In holdover news, The Purge dropped 76% in weekend two, sadly all-too-familiar for horror films, and earned $8.2 million. But weep not, for the $3 million Universal horror film has $52 million in ten days. Before Midnight finally went somewhat wide, but it earned just $1.5 million on 893 screens for just $1,701 per screen. It’s a good movie, but the mediocre expansion is somewhat expected, as its the third film in a trilogy where most audiences haven’t seen the first two (Before Sunrise and Before Sunset both made around $5 million back in 1995 and 2004 respectively). Iron Man 3 fell 50% in the face of Superman, and earned $2.9 million this weekend, ending up *just* under $400 million ($399.6 million). The Great Gatsby ended its frame with $139 million while The Hangover part III ended with $107 million domestic. Both Warner Bros. releases, which each cost around $105 million, are both set to cross $300 million worldwide very soon.

Now You See Me has turned into a leggy sensation of sorts, grossing $10.2 million over its third weekend (-46%) and ending the frame $80 million. It’s now a lock for $100 million domestic. Fast & Furious 6 earned $9.2 million over its fourth weekend with $219 million total, having officially passed the $209 million domestic gross of Fast Five to become the franchise’s biggest domestic earner as well as worldwide with $636 million. Epic is at $95 million today and should cross $100 million during the week or over next weekend, just as it starts losing 3D screens to World War Z and Monsters University. Star Trek Into Darkness now has $210 million domestic, as it flies past the first film’s $385 million global gross thanks to improved overseas figures (it topped $400 million worldwide this weekend). After Earth now has $54 million here and $145 million worldwide. Oh, and The Internship has crossed $30 million this weekend but probably won’t cross $50 million.

That’s it for this weekend. Join us next time for the debuts of World War Z (review hopefully Tuesday) Monsters University (seeing it whenever I can drag my kid to a 2D matinee next weekend). Until then, take care.

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FYI I saw “This Is The End” and it’s hilarious, the theater was completely full (it took two days to find a screening that wasn’t sold out, even showings as late as 10pm were sold out) and it’s the first time I’ve seen people stand up and applaud at the end of a comedy (not a full standing ovation since it was probably only about ten percent of the audience, but that’s still pretty impressive).

Mark I get what you’re saying about “MOS” and “Superman Returns” in terms of box office comparisons, but let’s be a little more fair to “MOS” as well. You’re basically comparing “MOS” 3 days plus a few extra hours to “Superman Returns” full 5 days, wait until after Tuesday to gage a more accurate box office comparison between the two films.

Oh I see, my mistake. Well my point is addressed to you than ‘Scott’. I’m sure you understand the point is was making in response to your article. The 14.2 million tickets “MOS” sold as to “Superman Returns” 12.9 is not really a truly fair comparison, after Tuesday count how many tickets sold by “MOS” than you can make a fair assessment. Still 14.2 to 12.9 million tickets sold in almost days less would seem to be very favorable for “MOS” when you really think about it right.

i went to see man of steel with great hopes. i liked the first act but in the overall i felt unsatisfied. i am aware it made great at the box office but what about satisfaction? bad. i commented with friends and mostly they expected another thing. i wanted the bizarro chapter actually . if you ask me, superman in film can only be saved if he fights against the bizarros. think of the faces of the witches in hanzel and Gretel. they are bizarros like and are great and different. eduardo vc

Scott, If you had to Guess, what do you see Avengers 2 likely grossing total? Maby 625 with anywhere from 500-750 feasible? And what about opening weakened? Maby 269 with anywhere from 215-293 feasible? What do you think?

Congratulations matter and insightful and accurate math, however I must add that, I agree with everything you wrote actually just what bothers me is Ace sequences tiresome, especially Superman, Superman Returns …… worst are ace adaptations or remakes!!!!