Wednesday, March 21, 2012

Most Constitutional Lawyers think Obamacare will Pass Supreme Court

I was watching an hour long report on Dan Rather's Reports on HDNET on CABLE TV. It turns out that even the most Conservative of Constitutional Lawyers believe that Obamacare will pass the Supreme Court. In fact, most believe it won't pass just as a 5 to 4 decision but rather as an 8 to 1 decision. The main reason is precedent. The only for sure Justice at this point who will vote against Obamacare is Justice Clarence Thomas. For 70 years the Commerce Clause has been interpreted very liberally since FDR in the 1930s. As a result of this there is a 70% to 90% probability that Obamacare will pass through the Supreme Court Unobstructed. However, the likelihood is just like Roe Versus Wade in the 1970s that it will empower the conservative base of the Republican Party for the next 30 to 50 years. So, the decision though it likely will stand the test of time might be the most controversial of this century. So, in this sense it is the decision of this century just like Roe Versus Wade might have been the decision of the last Century that changed everything.

So, it turns out that ALL the rhetoric about all this is political and not factual in any real way and that all legal arguments against Obamacare likely would not stand in Any Supreme court ruling as far back as the early 1800s at this point.

Days Later: after Obamacare issue was heard for three days by Supreme Court: At this point I think it will either be 5-4 for or against Obamacare because of the kinds of questions asked. But after listening carefully to President Obama carefully parse his words today (Realizing that he was the first black Head of the Harvard Law Review) which made him the most prestigious and smart pre-lawyer in the country when he was in Harvard Law School, I think if the Supreme Court goes against Obamacare that there will be a fight against the Supreme Court like FDR lead in the 1930s and won. I think if it goes 5 to 4 against Obamcare that Obama will run not only Against the Congress but also Against the Supreme Court. This might be a winning stance similar to Truman when he won against Dewey.

About Me

I live in Coastal Northern California at present but was raised mostly in Los Angeles and San Diego Counties. I have also lived in Seattle, Santa Fe, New Mexico, Maui and the big Island of Hawaii. My archive site is: dragonofcompassion.com