19 February 2010

ADRIFT IN IRAQ

Leave it to Joe Biden to claim that Iraq is one of the great successes of the Obama administration, never mind that Obama strongly opposed the surge that made victory there possible. Unfortunately much of what we fought for may go down the drain if we simply walk away with nothing gained. The administration has set a firm date for a complete troop withdrawal even as the political situation there remains somewhat unsettled. One can argue about the wisdom of the war in the first place, but that is academic now. What matters is the current situation, where Iranian influence is boldly growing and further reconciliation of Iraqi factions has hit a dead end. The now-empowered Shiites are refusing to allow virtually anyone who was a member of Saddam’s B’aath party to run for office, even though that may have been the only way to get a job and their involvement was otherwise limited. This precludes a significant number of Sunnis from running for office. The Sunnis pose no threat to majority Shiite domination of the government so some conciliation would be advisable, but American efforts have been insufficient to bring this about.

Behind the scenes lurks the presence of Iran, which is manipulating various Shiite factions, violating Iraq’s borders and otherwise gaining influence in the country. If we simply ignore Iraq now we will have fought a war just to turn it into an Iranian satellite. Steps must be taken to counter the influence of the illicit Iranian regime now. Otherwise this administration may not be responsible for “success” in Iraq, but an avoidable failure. Sour grapes over Bush is not a reason to abandon a successful policy. The administration itself has adapted the surge strategy in Afghanistan, and if that works it can properly claim credit for it. But claiming success in Iraq is a little premature.