Now, this is just a proposed change. I don’t know if it’s good yet. I figured I’d put it out there for feedback. With the Hall of Stats, I’ve tried to steer clear of arbitrary adjustments. I have to admit, I use a couple. For both catchers and relief pitchers, I give a 20% boost to adjWAR and adjWAA. I like that percentage a lot for catchers. For relievers? Maybe it could be a bit higher.

Since I’m using the 20% adjustment twice already, I decided to see how things would look of I used it again—this time to dock value for pitching adjWAR and adjWAA accumulated before 1893 (when the mound was moved to its current distance).

I’m a bit bummed to see Spalding and Ward go, but they certainly are Hall-worthy for other reasons. Spalding is already in the Hall as a pioneer. The fact that he also had a borderline case in just six useful seasons as a player is remarkable. Ward is in as a player, but he easily qualifies as a pioneer as well. Mathews is kind of the Jim Kaat of the 19th century, so it makes sense that he hovers near the borderline. I won’t miss Welch or King at all.

What’s interesting is the number of pitchers who now come very close to the borderline:

In short, I feel that this adjustment actually does a really good job. Many guys now move to the borderline, but that’s where I’ve always felt they belong. I didn’t like the Hall Rating scores that guys like Bond, Buffinton, and McCormick were getting. But I didn’t dislike their cases enough to simply cast them aside. They were elite pitchers and certainly deserve consideration. Did I make a big enough adjustment? Should it go beyond just pre-1893 seasons? Well, I could use some feedback.

If this change did go through, the Hall of Stats would need to induct five new players. They would be:

From 1872 to 1874, over 25% of all innings each season were thrown by a Hall of Famer.

In 1881, a peak of 31.7% of all innings were thrown by a HOFer.

After 18.6% of innings were thrown by a HOFer in 1900, the percentage never went that high again.

In fact, after 1908, it never again reached 15%.

That’s a lot of Hall of Fame pitchers. The thing is, the Hall of Stats currently only adds 19th century pitchers. It doesn’t subtract any. Running this adjustment does help that.

See the table below and note that:

IPouts = innings pitched, expressed in number of outs

HOS = current Hall of Stats pitchers

New HOS = Hall of Stats after this proposed change

Year

IPouts

HOS IPouts

HOS Pct

New HOS IPouts

New HOS Pct

1871

6750

1279

18.9%

0

0.0%

1872

9858

2432

24.7%

0

0.0%

1873

10754

2819

26.2%

0

0.0%

1874

12509

5077

40.6%

1491

11.9%

1875

18571

4831

26.0%

1242

6.7%

1876

14218

4364

30.7%

1230

8.7%

1877

9723

1984

20.4%

1563

16.1%

1878

9972

2951

29.6%

1949

19.5%

1879

17391

7475

43.0%

5147

29.6%

1880

18094

8659

47.9%

5152

28.5%

1881

17965

7863

43.8%

5393

30.0%

1882

30455

9824

32.3%

7268

23.9%

1883

41627

12421

29.8%

9169

22.0%

1884

80835

15103

18.7%

11957

14.8%

1885

47161

11778

25.0%

9035

19.2%

1886

54846

12294

22.4%

10084

18.4%

1887

55110

12256

22.2%

9874

17.9%

1888

57785

11255

19.5%

8225

14.2%

1889

57061

11177

19.6%

8678

15.2%

1890

84342

11925

14.1%

9665

11.5%

1891

58355

12855

22.0%

11222

19.2%

1892

48320

9757

20.2%

8511

17.6%

1893

41593

7030

16.9%

6568

15.8%

1894

41494

5572

13.4%

5572

13.4%

1895

41421

5206

12.6%

5206

12.6%

1896

41286

4185

10.1%

3749

9.1%

1897

42012

4613

11.0%

4151

9.9%

1898

47864

5107

10.7%

5107

10.7%

1899

47665

5461

11.5%

5461

11.5%

1900

29742

4774

16.1%

4774

16.1%

Total

1094779

222327

20.3%

167443

15.3%

We still get a high number of pitchers from the 1880s inducted, but it’s not that much worse than, say, how the Hall of Fame handles hitters from the 1920s and 1930s. Overall, the difference between the percentage of innings by a Hall of Famer before and after the adjustment is a whopping 5%. Pretty major adjustment there.