Yakima Valley, WA, October 2017 -- Founders Brewing Brewmaster Jeremy Kosmicki inhales deeply as he evaluates the aroma of a hop plant growing in the heart of hops country.

DISCLOSURE: FOUNDERS BREWING BROUGHT ME TO THE YAKIMA VALLEY TO OBSERVE THE HOP SELECTION PROCESS IN OCTOBER 2017.

“If you had to buy oxygen to stay alive and there was a shortage, you’d probably buy a couple extra bottles when you could, wouldn’t you?”

That’s partially how fourth-generation Washington hop grower Eric Desmarais excuses the thousands of craft brewers, who, panicking after a severe U.S. hop shortage that lasted from 2013-15, ordered well over a million excess pounds of the crop they’ve since discovered they don’t need and can’t necessarily pay for. The massive imbalance between what growers harvested in the fall of 2017 and what brewers can use has already caused one hop broker to file for Chapter 11 protection and threatens to upend brewers who got caught off guard by the glut they helped create.

The shoe may have switched feet but now both extremities are overexposed. If brewers can’t accept or afford their entire fulfillment – typically agreed to via a fixed-priced, multi-year contract that determines what growers will plant -- they could be forced to declare bankruptcy. Meanwhile, without those payments, growers risk being unable to make the investments they need to fill this coming year’s orders, along with next year’s and the year after that.

According to the Hop Growers of America association (USA Hops), it costs approximately $10,000 to cultivate a new field and $10,000 per year to maintain it. An acre can produce between 800 and 3,000 pounds annually, with specialty varieties selling between around $8-$14 per pound. The Brewers Association (BA) craft lobbying organization estimates that a 10,000 barrel American brewery similar to his uses around 1.5 pounds per barrel (1 bbl=31 gallons) which all adds up to a back-of-the-napkin calculation that on average, craft production brewers spend upwards of $150,000 per year on hops.

Tara Nurin

Yakima Valley, WA, October 2017 -- The inside of a freshly picked hop flower in the nation's hop-growing capital.