At 19/12Z, Invest 98L was located about 1450 miles east of the Windward Islands roughly near 10.5N 38W. A slow movement to the west is likely for a few days. The system is at a low enough latitude that windshear should remain light and SSTs are at 29C. Chances for additional development are now up to 60% - which seems realistic. The convection has been slowly improving over the past 24 hours.

Would love some discussion here as 98 seems destined to be a TD and most likely Ophelia. And, many models take her west into the Carib which could portend a much stronger storm down the line if she veers from the tracks of Irene or Maria.

Looks like it is ready for official status...what TD16?
As for the future, not much hype because there is so much ahead of it in terms of uncertainty. Two of the best performing models don't think much of this after a few days due to more shear as it enters the Carribean.
In my opinion this could be the last of the long track systems this season as the Atl. is cooling. The secondary season which ends in mid Oct. will focus, as usual, on the GOM and W. Carribean. Speculation is beginning on such a system two weeks out from now.

Here we are almost 10 days later and Ophelia is still out there northeast of the northern Leeward Islands and looking better organized this morning. Ophelia is now heading off to the north northwest and should pass east of Bermuda on Saturday as a Cat I Hurricane.
ED

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