Pac-12 football: Picks of the Week (breaking down Stanford-Oregon)

Let’s get right to the Pac-12 game of the Year, which figures to have at least one more touchdown than the SEC’s “Game of the Century.”

I picked Stanford to win 45-35 on an Oregonian chat the other day and I’ll stick with that prediction. Home team, advantageous surface, best player — seems like a favorable combination for the Cardinal.

It should be close, but then again neither of the past two meetings went down to the wire. Stanford was in control in 2009 and the Ducks dominated the second half last year.

A 10-14 point final margin, regardless of which team is on which end of the score, is not unrealistic.

The most important factor, of course, will be turnovers. But if we assume neither team has a decisive advantage in that aspect, then the keys as I see them are:

*** Third down.

I’ve mentioned this here and there throughout the week, including on TheOregonian chat on Wednesday, but let’s flush it out:

Time of possession is not important when it comes to the Quack Attack, but the number of possessions is very important, especially Saturday.

Let’s say Oregon needs six touchdowns to win, which seems like a reasonable estimation given Stanford’s production this season and the scores of the past two Cardinal-Duck games (the losing team averaged 36.5 points).

Six touchdowns is much more easily accomplished in 10-12 possessions than in eight or nine. The more times you have the ball, the more margin for error.

And when your quarterback (Darron Thomas) is only completing 60 percent of his passes, you need some margin for error.

If the Ducks cannot get Stanford off the field, if they cannot stop Andrew Luck on third down, then the Cardinal will squeeze the game … and do it while putting 35 or 40 points on the board.

That’s a lot different than squeezing the game and scoring 20-25 points.

Luck is masterful on third down, equally adept at hitting his fourth receiver as his primary target … or, if the pocket collapses, running for the necessary yardage.

Stanford converts 53.9 percent of its third-down opportunities, which is first in the conference and fourth in the nation.

The Ducks’ third-down defense has been awful the past two weeks: The Washington schools converted a combined 16 of 34 chances (47.1%) of their opportunities.

*** Pass rush.

Oregon defensive coordinator Nick Aliotti is a creative, aggressive playcaller. There is not a shred of doubt in my mind that he has taken a long, hard look at the scheme his USC counterpart, Monte Kiffin, used against Luck and Co. two weeks ago.

More than any team this season, the Trojans disrupted Stanford’s rhythm using an array or stunts and blitzes (not to mention some very quick, talented linemen).

Not only did they pressure Luck, they contained him — kept him from running for first down after first down.

Between Aliotti’s ingenuity and Oregon’s quickness up front, the Ducks have the ingredients to disrupt Stanford.

How will the Cardinal handle the onslaught, especially in long-yardage situations? It must be more effective than it was against USC, because 34 points in regulation probably won’t get it done.

*** Conditions.

Stanford coach David Shaw said earlier in the week that the surface is of no consequence — turf or grass, both teams are playing on the same field.

I’m not sure if Shaw truly believes that or was using gamesmanship, but I think the surface matters:

Oregon’s offense is predicated on speed and on putting its playmakers in position to maximize their speed: one-on-one situations on the perimeter.

Stanford’s defense is built on being well positioned, confusing the opponent and being sound in carrying out assignments.

A faster surface lends itself to Oregon’s style of play more than to Stanford’s style of play; it enables the Ducks to better execute their plan of attack.

The conditions should favor the Cardinal, as well.

There’s a 60% chance of rain at Stanford today, a 30% chance tonight and a 20% chance tomorrow.

The grass, most likely, will be soft — soft and tall.

The mower that cuts the stadium field has two settings. When last used (Wednesday) it was, rest assured, set on high.

To the picks …

Last week: 2-4Season: 32-30-1Five-star special: 5-5

All picks against the spread.
Lines taken from vegasinsider.com.

WASHINGTON (plus-13.5) at USC: Huskies have won two in a row over USC. But given their defensive problems and woeful performances against elite teams, there is little chance the streak reaches three. Pick: USC.

OREGON STATE (plus-9.5) at CAL: Beavers have owned the series in recent years but lack the defensive mettle and steady hand at QB to continue their dominance. Pick: Cal.

OREGON (plus-3) at STANFORD: Teams have combined to outscore their opponents 421-163 in the second half, based partly on deft halftime adjustments. Which coaching staff wins that game-within-the-game on Saturday? As noted above: Pick: Stanford.

ARIZONA STATE (minus-12.5) at WASHINGTON STATE: WSU is in freefall with dark clouds gathering over Paul Wulff’s office. But it won’t be easy for the Sun Devils to make the long trip after a tough road loss last week. Pick: Washington State.

ARIZONA (minus-13.5) at COLORADO: Home loss to Utah last week killed Arizona’s bowl chances and quite possibly its motivation. Buffs have to be looking at this as their best chance for a league win. Pick: Colorado.

UCLA (plus-7.5) at UTAH: UCLA’s midseason resurgence has taken place at home. This should be close, but I’m not convinced the Bruins have what it takes to beat a well-coached team on the road. Pick: UCLA.

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I agree with JW’s assessment of the value of holding onto the ball. I would take it a step further and say that Stanford needs to be aggressive on 4th down. Any 4th and 3 or less should be a cause to go for it. Either you convert and keep the drive alive, or you hand the ball over to the Ducks whose scoring ability seems disconnected to field position.

Gauss

Got my ticket last night, and I’m really excited for a good game and a vibrant atmosphere. Sold-out stadium, two top-7 teams, ESPN gameday, wow, just wow!

I think it is really difficult to pick a winner, and it’ll probably be decided on turnovers and penalties. But I think Oregon will win.

Oregon’s defense is a bit worse than last year, but Stanford’s looks markedly worse. On offense, the Cardinal might have improved a bit over the last year, and the Ducks are roughly similar: Darron Thomas seems to be throwing worse and running less, but D’Anthony Thomas is the most talented freshman in the Pac-12.

I expect Oregon to pick up third downs somewhat easier than Stanford, and win 45-34.

Todd

I don’t see a Stanford victory! Stanford is good but Oregon is better! Stanford will not be able to stop the Duck’s offense. Maybe they hang in there for awhile but in the long run Oregon buries the Cardinal. I hope Stanford can find away to win but I don’t see it happening.

jr

This will be a great game.
Duck VS Tree

NorCal Tree

I think the best player in the country finds a way to lead Stanford to victory! Shaw will pull out all the stops and has the team ready to defend the home turf. The home crowd will be rocking as it has been getting louder with each game. As for 4th down conversions, we are a perfect 10 for 10 thus far. Let that streak as well as our winning streak continue.

I predict 41 to 34 Stanford. Turnovers and penalties will be key and I think Stanford wins on both counts.

Fear the Luck!

Darius

Still think this game is going to be a shootout. The third quarter will make the difference. Stanford will come out blazing and Oregon will falter a couple times and end up playing catch-up the rest of the game. 52-38 Stanford!

milo

Wilner picks Stanford to win 45-35.

Stanfurd you’ve just been served with a Wilner Special Reverse Juju Jynx Pick. Enjoy!

Deepgreen

Wilner makes the point about the playing surface favoring Stanford because he thinks hit hurts Oregon’s speed. I know others make that point and I wonder if there’s any research to back it up. It seems to me that Oregon’s (or any other team with a lot of speed relative to Stanford’s) “speed” is not an end in itself, but indeed only as it is an advantage as it compares with Stanford’s. And how does the playing surface change that advantage for Oregon? (And the rain there is supposed to end by this evening, btw, and tomorrow is supposed to be dry and pleasant day for the field to get reasonably dry before the 5 p.m. game.)

Dumbdonald

As a die-hard Husky fan and long-time Pac10 observer, I have to say that I don’t recall ever being this excited for a non-UW conference game. God please may Stanford win this game!!

Spike89

Field speed does make a real difference, but even more pronounced is field condition. First, it makes no real difference in a straight line or chase situation, the faster guy is still faster, but it does make a difference say on a sweep play.
On a fast surface, the faster guy may gain a step and a half over the defender, enough to turn the corner. On a slow field, both move slower and the difference is now only a step–enough for the defender to possibly make a play.
Obviously a slightly slippery field takes away “ankle-breaker” cuts, benefit to the defense. There is a slight advantage to receivers running planned routes, but basically the more you force everyone to run without sharp cuts, you favor the defense and strength over speed.

leftcoast

I notice we’ve seen less of the typical Oregon woofing posts this year. Could Stanford’s rise have led to some worried Ducks?

I believe both teams see this game as a very close thing. /Lefty

USC Traveler

Get it done Stanford.

Want to see you guys go undefeated.

Ducks- we’ll see you next week.

Keith

Jon has mentioned tall wet grass many times. I have been scouring the internet looking for any kind of proof, or even evidence, that this has a real affect on a team. I can’t find any. If someone wants to point me to some, I’d appreciate it.

I then went on to look at all of Oregon’s games played on grass in the last two years. I can’t see any correlation between surface and performance. In fact, Oregon played on grass at Tennessee, and the first half was interrupted by a 70 minute torrential downpour. Oregon returned to the field and blew the socks off of Tennessee. If Stanford wins on Saturday, soft grass will not have played any part.

I do agree that # of possessions is key. If Stanford can limit Oregon to 8 or 9 possessions, they’ll win the game. Oregon, which ranks dead last in time of possession averages almost 14 possessions per game. They had 13 against LSU, 16 for ASU, 15 for Cal. Of the games I checked, their fewest amount was 12 vs. WSU. My guess is that Stanford will have to win the game while giving Oregon at least 12 possessions.

milo

You’d think the rain would be an advantage to UO. Ironically Oregon doesn’t like the rain and if they lose, they’ll complain about it. See Cal v UO moonsoon. UO complained and complained.

Telrod

Substitue brains for grass and Stanford’s the winner. Keep the streak alive.

lesliemedford

On Wednesday night I dreamt that Stanford won. The first half was close and somewhat chaotic. I was called away…feelings of trepidation turned to relief and joy when I saw the newspaper headline “STANFORD WINS!”

Congrat’s to last week’s winner!
JackBeav 35-10 25pt margin
…the the runner-up…NorCal Tree (closest in the total points category).

GriZz

I’m expecting a great Stanford, Ducks game… A very even match, between two good team — I think it will come down to how Stanford’s defense plays. Both offences will be unstoppable nearly all game. I think the biggest question mark is will Stanford’s defense be able to keep up with the speed of the Ducks non-stop offensive onslaught, in the late stages of the game. Any turnovers will be completely backbreaking.

Not having Owusu is a big loss. But I think the weather will be a factor in Stanford’s favor. Stanford being more of the power team will be less effected by sloppy, muddy conditions than a fast Ducks team who relies on outrunning defender’s angles. Will it be enough of a factor to determine the game? Probably not… I expect this one to come down to the last possession or two. This is really the PAC-12 Championship Game. Can’t wait.

TommyCoug

As a predictable Cougar Homer…I say Cougs surprise the Sun Devils and win 30-24!! Couldn’t happen to a sleazier guy than Dennie Erickson!!

GO COUGS!!

SC

Not because I hate the ducks (which I do, they got us good last week), but because I think Stanford is really good, Stanford shows up big time and wins 41-24

elPalo

Something that went through my head but didn’t post it in time for the PSU related blog:

We need the guys in the white hats to win.

The past 12 months have been the greatest cesspool of moral failure I have seen since I began following college football. Like that bad joke about prisoners only needing to number their jokes to elicit a laugh, merely reciting the names of the teams evokes the stench that now permeates the game: Auburn, Miami, UNC, Georgia Tech, Ohio State, Oregon, and now Penn State. The mantras of “win at all costs” and “winning is the only thing” have usurped the values that college athletics should be teaching students: teamwork, comraderie and sportsmanship. It has blinded the students and college administrators of the finest institutions of higher education in the world to the farcical education bestowed upon these “student athletes.” It has led fans to overlook the moral shortcomings of their athletes and now their coaches for the feel good moment of the big win and the millions of dollars it brings to their university.

Stanford’s ascent to the elite of Div I football was not accompanied by cutting corners. They took what talent they had and worked with it, instilling a strong work ethic, and taught perseverance and preparation. Their finest players embody the notion of student athlete– Gerhart, a HS valedictorian, had his finest game against Oregon in 2009 despite getting by on only 4 hours of sleep that week because he was studying for midterms. And Luck, another HS valedictorian, chose to remain in college despite an assured multi-million dollar payday. There are no run-ins with the law for the team. The coaches have also kept it clean: Stanford and PSU are the only Top 25 teams that have not been investigated by the NCAA.

Sadly, while PSU’s success has also been due to maintaining high academic standards, their image has now been forever tarnished because they placed football before common sense. Tomorrow, Stanford plays Oregon. While there are many fine individuals on the team, Oregon’s ascent to the elite of college football has been accompanied by the malfeasance that is now commonly accepted as standard operating procedure: suspended players and shady recruiting. While I admire what they can do on the football field, I do not admire how they got there.

What college football needs now is a great story. Yes, to go from 1-11 to 13-0 would be that classic feel good story of resurrection. But more significantly, it would tell the nation that, yes, you can do things right and good things will happen. A loss tomorrow puts Stanford out of the national discussion and sadly reaffirms the status quo of how things are done. If there was ever a victory that carried a bigger message, that would be tomorrow’s game. College football needs the guys in the white hats to win.

Sorry for the rant, normalcy will resume soon.

Pluto99

I want Stanford to win, but I hate the idea of it being held up as a shining beacon. No need to put the guys on a pedestal. There are some thugs and dingbats in Oregon’s program, but overall, I gotta say I’m relatively impressed with how CK runs the program. He seems to give guys a second chance, maybe even a third, but also takes action when they don’t meet those standards.

Since people are making predictions, I’ll throw out 45-35. Stanford leads big at the half and then survives the final push by Oregon.

Pretty sad that Stanford and Oregon are the only two ranked teams in the Pac12. Too bad one of them will lose national prestige over this.

nope

“Woeful performances against elite teams”. Yeah, because holding Oregon to less points than any other team this year other than LSU and getting jobbed by the officials against Nebraska, while still beating the spread and dominating the fourth quarter…. is just so woeful. Stanford was woeful. It ends there. The other two were disappointing losses.

bullship

I just want to see a good college football game. Just the game.

But honestly I am having a hard time , thinking about all the abused and neglected children. I am not sure I will ever be able to watch a game without thinking of those young people being abandoned, left to suffer at the hands of an evil man….

1959

Jon’s logic about number of possessions makes no sense. Barring turnovers on special teams, each team will get the same number of possessions in a game (+/- 1). If Oregon gets 12 offensive possessions, Stanford will as well.

stanfordfan

Why do Oregon fans wear zeroes on their caps?

H8sRed

With the kickoff time for Big Game hinging on the outcome of LSJU/UO, I’m rooting for Stanford. 5pm game time is much more preferable to 7:15.

206 Cardinal

Stanford 34, UO 31. Can’t wait.

Leftcoast

Stanford 31, Oregon 45

Dang, I hope I’m wrong but this feels like the game where the Cardinals injuries catch up with them. If I AM wrong it will be because Andrew Luck puts the team on his back and carries them to the promised land – and I’ll never doubt again this season.

Sounds like a good way to remove all doubts! (Although I’d say LSU is a better team.)

But seriously, I’m very worried about injuries.

Gauss

Gameday was fun this morning. A pity about the weather, but it should be better at gametime.

After OkSt anhilitated Texas Tech, the chances of Stanford playing in the NCG look dim, but still, one can dream.

I give Oregon 70% chance of winning (it seems many pundits are just buying into the narrative that Luck’s fate is having a special season), but 30% is a large probability.
So anything could happen, and let the best team win