Texans prediction: They lose and College Gameday

Okay, here is my prediction about what will take place on Sunday. Just in case some of you maniacs out there want to freak out that I’m picking a 3 point home underdog who is going up against a team that is missing their three biggest skill position weapons (minus QB), I break down why I think the Texans will have a hard time winning this one.

On Offense: On paper the Texans offensive gameplan should be severely limited with Andre Johnson, Jacoby Jones and Ahman Green out for this week, but my best guess is that Kubiak won’t limit anything the Texans want to do just because of injuries. The Texans offensive line took a big hit with Steve McKinney going out for the year and Mike Flanagan might have a big problem with big Grady Jackson at NT. However, the Falcons haven’t exactly played offensive juggernauts in their first three games and yet they are still giving up 142 yards rushing per game and have a pass defense that has allowed 4 passing TDs and 1 INT. Opposing QBs have a total passer rating of 102 against which is terrible. It behooves the Texans to stay within a normal gameplan. The Falcons have a decent front seven who has played okay at times, but I think the Texans will be able to protect Schaub. Andre Davis’ deep speed needs to be a factor in this game to help open up the deep middle for Owen Daniels. Ron Dayne’s inability to break a big run really limits the Texans potential for scoring in the 20s this week.

On Defense: The Falcons have made changes to their running game now that Bobby Petrino is in. Gone is the zone running scheme that was predominant over the last few years and the Falcons have been trying to acclimate themselves to their new offense with their new QB. The Falcons haven’t had too much success on the ground so far, but keep in mind that they’ve faced solid rush defenses from Carolina, Minnesota and Jacksonville. The Texans have been solid against the run and that is the key to this game as well. The Falcons will try and attack the perimeters with Roddy White and Michael Jenkins and White’s size and speed could cause the Texans problems. A bigger problem could be if Alge Crumpler gets going. QB Harrington has been sacked a ton this year and the Texans will need to blitz Harrington throughout the game because he is prone to make mistakes.

Outcome: The Texans are going to find out (if they don’t already know), that the offense will not be the same with Flanagan in for McKinney. Flanagan has problems with stronger NTs and if he gets blown up too frequently, the running game will non-existent because Dayne’s lack of quickness will limit the Texans ability to get to the perimeters in the running game. The Falcons could have beaten the Jaguars if not for two missed FGs and they totally imploded last week in the 4th quarter against the Panthers. The Falcons know this is a game they have to have and they are a relatively healthy team. With the Texans this beat up on offense, they are going to have a hard time putting points on the board.

Prediction: Texans – 14 Falcons – 17

Here are my favorite signs from “College Gameday” this morning in Oregon for the Cal vs. Oregon showdown.