I'll keep an eye out on this trade, and I'm actually biased towards your view of the currency pair than Nomura's take to be fair; but in some cases I simply post institutional views (such as UBS's weekly TA for example) to get different takes on the markets, and do so purely as a messenger (as per Remos' DYOR!)

Catch up soon, and keep on posting, always look forwards to your trade set ups!

alarm bells started ringing when I read their TA... word of caution if you follow Nomura as
1. no mention of time frame on chart
2. source is Bloomberg
3. analysis is based solely on wave structure - which is suicide in trading ( My opinion)

I believe what they have shown is 4H chart - their bear flag did break down - but soon shot up
(you can call it a Draghi effect BUT also look at the massive MACD divergence on the chart - I am sure this had some role behind the rise!)

been waiting to see if we could get a rise out of the channel, also if we get above the previous swing high this could go up a couple of hundred of pips. I have a pending order from yesterday to go long, which is waiting for the next rise should it come.

I'm short on this now from earlier in the day when the neckline broke. There's possibily quite a big downside target if the H&S plays out (see earlier chart).

Unfortunately, it didn't quite make my upside target at the backtest of the short term uptrend which was at 1.2919 today so I got stopped out at b/e on my long. Hopefully the short will do a bit better - the RSI seems to support that as a possibility.

I'm long too but with a slightly tighter stop as don't think it's good for more than a brief bounce. I'd be happy if it tests the breakdown of the previous short term uptrend (not shown). The RSI is suggesting that this neckline of the big H&S is going to go IMHO:

It has now reached that oblique support mentioned last week. Question is - will it bounce?

gclark25 wrote:

Short oon the Eur/usd based on following 2 charts.

recently broke the previously mentioned range- initially it looked like a double bottom forming, but it continued in the range, but it broke out that range last night and looks as if the oblique supporting trendline on the Daily chart (not the weekly one yet) is a near term target.

Chart above showing overall target

Above chart showing the breakout from the range.

No need to post this, but if you look at the weekly chart, you can see that the area between 12870/12890 (the target area initially) is a previous price action area.

I had a long position ready to activate but it missed this by 8 pips.. ..gutted....That was from the trend line on first attempt but it bounced early..So now i have cancelled that long as i wont try it on a second attempt on the same day..

I should add though, there is news due today at 1.30 and 3.00pm, so I will move my stops to break even; thinking being that if it is bearish for the dollar, eur/usd will probably shoot up and chances is take out my stop regardless of distance, but if it is bullish the opposite will occur, probably resulting in it going no where near my stop.

The alternative is news is as expected and doesn't really effect price action too much, then that leaves my B.E stop at risk.

recently broke the previously mentioned range- initially it looked like a double bottom forming, but it continued in the range, but it broke out that range last night and looks as if the oblique supporting trendline on the Daily chart (not the weekly one yet) is a near term target.

Chart above showing overall target

Above chart showing the breakout from the range.

No need to post this, but if you look at the weekly chart, you can see that the area between 12870/12890 (the target area initially) is a previous price action area.

A bounce in this area looks plausible (12990/13000. Decent support level previously and a round number. If we look at the 4H chart we can see signs of a double bottom and the accompanying divergence on the RSI/Williams.

Targets may vary - but I am looking at the 13200 area where strong resistance can be found via previous S/R levels and the 50% fib retracement.

This is approaching the intermediate downtrend resistance at 1.3454 (falling daily). One more little rise up to that looks like it'll complete a corrective pattern upwards so the move down could be nice if it works out:

This just shows how trading the trend lines on a first attempt can be profitable
Obviously you need to be able to draw a trend line properly...This eludes majority of people.
Accuracy is every thing when it comes to day trading.

this bounced of the trend line beautifully yesterday and moved 30 points on a first attempt basis.. now its re-testing the trend line so i would not go long on a second attempt.my remaining shares stops are just below the low of yesterday.

Looks like you could be right again Remo. Looking back from afar this looks like a beautiful triangle....ignore all the squiggly bits around the current trading: they come from daily charts. Hopefully this will break through the upper trend line with this move up from the lower trend line

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