According to Juan Williams, Christie only will get in if it looks like Palin is getting in, setting himself up as the anti-Palin, since she would be unstoppable against the current field:

What will it take to get Chris Christie to say yes and run for the GOP nomination?

Come on down — Sarah Palin.

If the queen of the Tea Party makes a grand entrance into the Republican primary sweepstakes the New Jersey governor will finally say yes to all the calls for him to jump into the race….

All the talk about Palin has the Republican political establishment seeing red. They fear losing control of the nominating process and the whole party spiraling down, sinking into a sea of far-right polarization and the cult of personality around Palin if “Sarah Barracuda” – her nickname as star high school basketball player — swims into their waters and begins eating up Mitt Romney, Rick Perry and the other current Republican candidates.

Williams’ theory — and I don’t know if it’s anything more than that — makes sense:

None of those [poll] numbers will matter if Palin gets in the race. She will become a media sensation. The rest of the field will be an afterthought. That is the moment when the Republican political establishment will send out the call for the one remaining political star on the GOP side who can take the spotlight away from Palin. That candidate is Gov. Christie.

The only way for Christie to get out from under his promises and suicide threats not to run is to claim that the world has changed. Which it would have if Palin gets in.

The problem with Christie’s strategy of waiting for Palin is that Palin keeps waiting, while Christie keeps promising he’s not running. A late entrance by Palin will make her look tactically astute, while a reactionary late entrance by Christie will make him look like a reactionary late entrant.

[Note: “?” added to title because it’s just Williams saying it for now, although it makes sense to me.]

Comments

The problem with Juan Williams theory is that the Ruling Class Republicans will have to convince everyone that it is not too late for Christie to enter the race after they spent all the blowhard airtime declaring it is too late for other candidates to enter the race.

Run Christie Run! I won’t vote for him however his entrance in the race will help to divide the Ruling Class Republican vote who will have to choose between Obese Government-types Romney, Huntsman, Gingrich, Perry and Christie.

“I do hope the use of these two words used together does not mean RACCIIISSSSTS much like what happens when the two words ‘black sheep’ means RACCIIISSSSSTS!

If so, then eventually every word will mean RACCIIISSSSTS”

Do you realize how offensive that statement is, especially since the duchess expressed mere curiosity about why the definition is called what it is? Would you have tacked this on if she had not said she is Hispanic? Anyway, you didn’t answer her question. From her comment, she knows what the definition is, she just doesn’t get the etymology of it. Duchess, you might try wiki for the background on the term.

“All the talk about Palin has the Republican political establishment seeing red. They fear losing control of the nominating process and the whole party spiraling down, sinking into a sea of far-right polarization”

“And since G.O.P. Front Runner Ronald Reagan relies upon a base of support that is on the far right wing of the Republican Party, some experts have long declared that if he wins the nomination, the G.O.P. would simply be repeating the suicidal Goldwater campaign. Ex-President Gerald Ford left no doubt about his views when he warned last month: “A very conservative Republican cannot win in a national election.”

” National opinion polls continue to show Carter leading Reagan by an apparently comfortable margin of about 25%. They also show that more moderate Republicans like Ford would run better against the President”

“Reagan cannot hope to win, however, unless he moves beyond the hard-line conservative base that has sustained him since he first appeared on the national political scene as a spokesman for Goldwater himself. He has no experience in Washington politics or foreign affairs. ”

Much as I was impressed by Chris Christie’s speech – I hope he does NOT run. For God’s sake, let someone stay in their position as Governor, as Senator and as Congressman to MAKE A REAL DIFFERENCE. Stay there and make the reforms that are so desperately needed.

Besides, those of us who MIGHT be Christie supporters if Palin is not in the race, will NOT be Christie supporters if she is. And if she isn’t, and we have to choose between Cain, or Perry, and Christie? It’s a split vote.

I’m going to be really po’d if Christie jumps into the race after saying time and time again that he wasn’t going to run and after listening to the insiders harping about how it’s too late for Palin to run. People criticize Palin for not deciding but they’re willing to plead with CC in spite of him saying he wasn’t interested.

If it’s too late for Palin it’s too late for Christie because she has name recognition that he doesn’t. In the preverbial flyover areas the average voter may never have heard of Christie and his loud brash manner may sell on the coasts I don’t think it will in the Midwest. JMO.

Juan Williams is speculating at best, and IMHO is way off base. If Christie really is that shallow that he won’t get in unless/until Sarah Palin does – to answer the cry of the Republican establishment, no less – is a pipe dream.

Christie has said over and over – OVER AND OVER – that he is not running. For him to change his mind now would make his record as a RINO be ultra-emphasized by Conservatives. There are PLENTY of problems with Christie – just listen to Mark Levin on the subject. Or Rush Limbaugh, after Christie’s Reagan Library speech (key word=”compromise”). Too much like McCain, according to Rush.

Sarah Palin has not announced, and hasn’t said EITHER WAY that she will or will not. And, whether Erick Erickson likes it or not, she is in charge of when she will announce – or not. She is the one most in the public eye being asked – and NOT by the permanent political class Republicans, mind you – and is someone that many TEA Party Conservatives both know and support.

Whatever happens, happens. But I don’t buy the premise that Juan Williams makes. It would be a HUGE (no pun intended) flip-flop if Christie changes his mind because of what Sarah Palin does, and would, IMHO, negatively impact support for him.

Christie is NOT “the one we’ve been waiting for” – he’s only that for Ann Coulter. 😉

Why wouldn’t she be? None of the announced candidates has a concrete 65%+ unfavorable with independents. Given this economy and Obama’s plummeting approval numbers, she’s probably their only viable hope to scrape out a win.

Count me profoundly skeptical of those results, quadruply so if it purports to be nationwide. Why? Because I don’t know a single person that disliked her two years ago that likes her now, but I know a whole bunch who liked her but have soured. Yes, that’s purely anecdotal, but I doubt many peoples’ experience is much different.

Adrienne Ross wonders: “Is it possible that Governor Palin is contemplating a third party/Independent run for the presidency in 2012? Is it possible that the title she’s referring to, that she repeatedly says she doesn’t need, is not the title of President of the United States, as some are fearing, but rather the title she mentions in the above quote: GOP nominee?”

As I said on that blog, I don’t believe Sarah Palin would split the ticket. She is a Reagan Republican, A Conservative Republican.

Also, she wants Obama to LOSE – and she knows that splitting the ticket would likely give the election to Obama.

Nah. She stands and acts on principle. She wouldn’t do that to the GOP – even though they would do (and have done) as much to her. Her philosophy, as she stated in prior years, is to do as Reagan espoused: take back the Republican Party, for Conservatives.

I tend to agree with you, but I thought it was an interesting way of interpreting Sarah Palin’s statement. Everyone thought Sarah was referring to the title of president, which led them to think that she isn’t going to run. Adrienne Ross showed there was more than one way to read her statement.

Don’t doubt that Sarah Palin and the GOP establishment both know that if Governor Sarah Palin bolts to form a third party it will a long, long time before the GOP wins another national election. I’m sure she has that club handy by in her discussions with certain people.

Palin has too much integrity, conscience, and principles to even pretend to become a Democrat.
Actually your idea would fit Chris Christie to a T. He is a RINO so all he would have to do is register as Democrat to primary Obama. What an exciting thought! The GOP seems to act as its own worst enemy. The debates seem so farcical and they are controlled by the hostile msm and shill for Obama, Brian Williams.
Yeah, Christie primary Obama!!!

Christie thinks he can beat the Barracuda? LOL!!!!! He thinks he’s the RINO answer to Palin? He thinks he can stop The Guv? LOL!!! Some of Christie’s fat has gone to his head. Dude, she’s got the troops, the base, and the organization. She’s got the reformer track record. She brought down the corrupt bastards in Alaska, and the ones in DC are deathly scared she’ll do the same to them, so Chris Christie, bought and paid for YouTube bombastic wonder thinks he can defeat Palin. Christie has an active fantasy life. He should wish he had a record like Palin’s.

Economy, what does Christie think? See Palin’s FB notes and any number of speeches. She was the onlynone who called it right on QEII. Where was Christie?

Healthcare, what does Christie think? Run the bread, is what he thinks. See Palin’s FB page and assorted speeches. We know where she stands since she uttered the metaphor ‘death panel’.

Foreign policy, what does Christie think? Who knows? We have an idea though from the Shariah-loving Muslim Christie has promoted to the bench, and don’t tell him jack about Islamic terrorism. Where does he stand on Israel? See the shariah guy. Palin? See her FB notes and other assorted speeches.

Expanding Conservative power in Congress, what does Christie think? Don’t make me laugh. Christie supported Mike Castle. Sarah Palin? Please review her impressive 70%+/- win-loss endorsement record. The ungrateful bastards in the GOP owe Palin for the House but were so uncouth they blamed her for the loss of the Senate.

Battling Obama and the Socialists for the heart and soul of America, what does Chris Christie think? Oh, he gave a speech the other day. Big whoop! Palin? She’s been handing Obama’s rear end to him since 2008. He has no ammunition, that isn’t a stone cold lie, to use against her.

American exceptionalism, what does Chris Christie think? Who knows? Palin? Check her FB notes and other assorted speeches.

Consistent and well developed political philosophy, what does Chris Christie think? He’s a RINO, all they know is they want us to arrive at Socialism a bit slower than the Democrats do. Besides that, he thinks bluster and yelling at union thugs is a political philosophy. Palin? Hers has been 20 years or so in the developing, and she knows exactly what she believes, and she knows what works because she’s put it into practice and tested the effectiveness of Conservative ideas.

Making hard choices in good times, what does Chris Christie think? He’s a RINO, when they’re flush with money they don’t stash it away for a rainy day, they spend it on dumb stuff. Palin, she left Alaska with $12 billion in reserves.

Putting the state and family ahead of desire for political power, what does Chris Christie think? Who knows? He’s a RINO; they like power. Palin, she gave up power when she saw that countless frivolous lawsuits were eating the financial resources of the state of Alaska and her family, and she figured that she could be just as or even more effective unshackled by the economic destruction of ankle biters. Say hello to the GOP control of the House and the ascendance of the TP.

Achievement during tenure in office, what has Chris Christie done? Not too much, apart from capturing his histrionics and having them posted to YouTube, he had some sort of minor success the other day that was turned in to a big noise. Palin, in three years, she accomplished more than any governor, present or past, and could truthfully declare that she had accomplished her legislative goals.

Yet, the GOP wants Christie and would savage Palin. They’d prefer an Obama victory and destruction of the USA to a Palin presidency and the destruction of their power.

I’ll bet old Juan gets paid pretty well to invent imaginary events like this. Visions of a convention battle between two candidates who aren’t even running. Fantasy football is awfully popular… maybe Juan can conjure up a few fantasy politics leagues for those of us hooked on politics.

This scenario doesn’t make much sense. Either Christie wants to be president or he doesn’t. Running just to spite someone else gets you a Ross Perot type candidate and a lost election. I don’t see where this benefits anyone.

The problem here is the source. Williams sees things as he wants them to be, and presents those thoughts tactically, to inflict as much damage as possible on those he opposes… typically, anyone to the right of Lenin.

This is the time to consider the source, and killing off even 2 brain cells over what he says and giving his positions any credit is like giving a male credit for his thoughts on what the child birth experience is like.

Palin would not gain the nomination… and Christie will not enter even if she tries. And it’s bizarre that Williams sees such a scenario… but then, his slavish devotion to the left is equally bizarre.

My theory, though, is that Christie does want to run but is attempting to wait out Sarah Palin’s expected announcement before doing so.

Why? Because by going last, Christie could limit Sarah’s inevitable announcement surge with an announcement surge of his own.

But he’s wrong….

(1) Sarah surge will come not from the establishment republican side of the race (Romney-Huntsman), her surge will be in part Perry, Bachmann, Cain, Johnson, Santorum, and Gingrich current voters, plus those of us waiting on the sidelines until she jumps in.

(2) Christie will get his votes out of Romney and Huntsman (whatever that is).

(3) Christie would be able to get some financial backers, but he doesn’t have Sarah’s advantages as spelled out by Donna Brazile in June 2011:

“Palin can wait until the last possible moment to officially file her intent to run. Others who have already filed or are looking to file need to start developing traction-generating strategies now. However, Palin has both name recognition and the ability to quickly raise the funds needed to pull together a massive organization in the key early states. This media-savvy political professional can decide when it is the right time for her to file. “

“It is amusing to watch the people who do not like Palin fretting about her sitting on the sidelines instead of following their timetable.”

She controls their battle space. And if Christie really would be a reactive rather than a proactive candidate in that battle space, Palin controls him too, and already.

The only person qualified to act as POTUS — apart from the question and process of being nominated and elected — is the one who existentially, internally does not want the office.

So far one candidate qualifiedly fits that description, Perry. However, his wife does want that office and she is half him, so he does not unqualifiedly qualify to act as POTUS. (Remember, this analysis is being conducted apart from the question and process of nomination and election.)

Chris Christie, much as I dislike his gluttony and RINO/”compromise” frame of reference (a consequence of the gluttony he is unwilling to forego), does not want the office of POTUS, and as best I see, neither does his wife. That makes him qualified for the office. I do not want him in it, but he is qualified for it.

Neither Sarah nor Todd Palin want her in the office of POTUS. Therefore, she is qualified for it. So is Todd.

All other current and potential candidates showing as Republican want to be in the office of POTUS and are thus unqualified for it. Also unqualified for the office of POTUS is, of course, the personality occupying the White House, all three halves of it.

rightConcept introduces a volatile variable. The calculus of that would be elegant.

Sarah Palin did not want to be Governor of Alaska and she does not want to be POTUS. She had a desire to serve her State and she has a desire to serve her Nation. On that base rests her popularity and her decision-making. She is self-less, and that makes her vision clear and convincing. She is hollow like a flute Through her the universal urge to build up and to foster, to unite and to motivate breathes sweet melodies.

People hear that sweetness and love her for it. But it’s not her. She is not its author. The yearning to reunite power and meaning, the very breath of life, originates the sweetness heard from Sarah Palin. It’s not her power. It’s the power of life breezing through her.

IMO, this is really not about Chris Christie. Christie is a smokescreen to distract Republican voters from the real scheming of the Beltway Republicans, which is to pave the way for a Jeb Bush run in 2016. If Palin announces she’s running, she forces Jeb Bush to jump in now on the assumption that she’ll be a two termer. She is likely to pick as VP her successor, who will come from the following group: Rubio, West, McDonnell, Cain, or Ryan. That threatens to keep the Presidency in the hands of Conservatives through 2024, and the Party pols and Democrats are in a panic over that possibility. I see it as near Nirvana.

Time to get out that old chestnut the OODA loop. Even Ace had to reluctantly admit she was up to something.

“In order to win, we should operate at a faster tempo or rhythm than our adversaries–or, better yet, get inside [the] adversary’s Observation-Orientation-Decision-Action time cycle or loop. … Such activity will make us appear ambiguous (unpredictable) thereby generate confusion and disorder among our adversaries–since our adversaries will be unable to generate mental images or pictures that agree with the menacing as well as faster transient rhythm or patterns they are competing against.

The OODA loop, which focuses on strategic military requirements, was adapted for business and public sector operational continuity planning. Compare it with the Plan Do Check Act (PDCA) cycle or Shewhart cycle, which focuses on the operational or tactical level of projects.

As one of Boyd’s colleagues, Harry Hillaker, put it in “John Boyd, USAF Retired, Father of the F16″:

The key is to obscure your intentions and make them unpredictable to your opponent while you simultaneously clarify his intentions. That is, operate at a faster tempo to generate rapidly changing conditions that inhibit your opponent from adapting or reacting to those changes and that suppress or destroy his awareness. Thus, a hodgepodge of confusion and disorder occur to cause him to over- or under-react to conditions or activities that appear to be uncertain, ambiguous, or incomprehensible.

Writer Robert Greene wrote in an article called OODA and You that

the proper mindset is to let go a little, to allow some of the chaos to become part of his mental system, and to use it to his advantage by simply creating more chaos and confusion for the opponent. He funnels the inevitable chaos of the battlefield in the direction of the enemy.”

There are some great comments on the threads the professor has going; reasonable, articulate and untroll-like. People need to reflect, debate and disagree.

I like Rick Perry. There was video around a few months ago from a pastor who interviewed some of the GOP candidates and included both Palin and Perry. Rather than politics the interview touched on some of the personal, religious and human qualities of the candidates. Palin’s interview was pretty good but Perry was wonderful – charming, sincere and charismatic. That being said Perry is a good old boy whose method of doing business is you scratch my back and I’ll scratch your back. That makes him an all star fund raiser and very popular with the government-industrial complex. But is that what we need right now? Another GOP lobby fest in Washington DC? The Republicans will likely will gain great power this election cycle. Do we want yet another round of the spoils of politics in Washington, DC with the red lobby replacing a blue lobby?

I admit there is an element of risk involved with Governor Sara Palin. For her to rise like a phoenix from the ashes of the Alinsky nuclear attack launched on her would be one miracle. Much of the criticism directed at Governor Palin is the fallout from this unprecedented malicious attack on her. How much of your knowledge of her comes from this conspiracy of 400 reporters, politicians, pundits and professors?

Take a minute with a pencil and paper when you are by yourself. Honestly – remember you are alone – write down every accomplishment you can think of Sarah Heath Palin. And not just the accomplishments but also the hurdles she has overcome. If you need some information, beg, borrow, or buy a copy of Stephen K. Bannon’s film “The Undefeated.” Come on be honest. When you are done read the list.

She is also a woman. Believe me that is a problem on the deepest psychological level in some quarters. If she prevails over the next fourteen months she will be the first female President of the US, Commander in Chief, leader of the “free world” and one of the most powerful people on the face of the earth. This is causing great unease made worse because men are getting hammered from all sides in out feminized society. Throw in the fact that from all reports of people meeting her in person she is not just attractive but stunning. It makes for a powerful psychological cocktail. For her to overcome this deep seated instinctive and reflexive misogyny will be another miracle.

It’s all part of the RINO Stampede GOP strategy for clearing the path for Romney so they can go after him with in the end with a Bush-approved liberal Democrat. Most of the stalking horses are still playing the “will he or won’t he run” game on the sidelines to derail the narrative when a Bachmann or Cain surge in the polls.

The only reason the GOP establishment won’t commit to Romney is because they know he won’t win. In a weak field, he should be polling far better than the 24% barrier he just can’t seem to break through despite campaigning for so long. And not like he is polling all that well against a very, very weak president.

I am more than ever convinced that the GOP would rather lose in 2012 than allow a strong conservative to win the nomination. The dirty money Rove kowtows to doesn’t care about party, they will again split their money between the two parties but assuming both are committed to their one-world-without-borders globalist agenda (which is what always happens), they will again direct most of that money to the candidate most likely to win. Right now, that would be Hillary.