Oil prices climb as investors wait for OPEC meeting

In November the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed to slash output by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) to reduce a global supply glut and lift the oil price.

Specifically, judging by hedge funds' positioning in the call/put options market, there are significant odds that OPEC might deepen the production cuts to expedite oil market demand/supply rebalancing (Scenario B) or give up market intervention, allowing near-term prices to free-fall in an attempt to squeeze out the higher-cost U.S. oil producers (Scenario C).

Members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers led by Russian Federation agreed previous year to cut oil production by around 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) mainly to tackle bloated crude inventories and support higher prices.

An extension into next year will help producers reach their goal of trimming global stockpiles to a five-year average, Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih said Sunday.

A sharp-elbowed scrum of analysts, journalists and lobbyists all jostling to get to the oil ministers - known as the "gangbang" - is a notorious feature of its twice-yearly meetings.

Crude oil inventories are on the decline and there is "some light at the end of the tunnel" for OPEC's market balancing effort, its secretary general said.

US energy companies added oil rigs for an 18th week in a row, the second-longest such streak on record, as higher crude prices motivated drillers to boost monthly shale production to its highest since mid-2015. The expectation of a production cut deal extension could support oil prices.

Meanwhile, U.S. producers learned during the oil crash how to become leaner and operate within cash flow at lower oil prices.

OPEC and other producers initially agreed to reduce output by 1.8 million barrels per day in the first half of 2017, with a possible six-month extension.

The rise in price is attributed to the expectation that an OPEC pledge that member countries as well as non-member countries such as Russian Federation would be reducing their supplies by approximately 1.8 million bpd would get an extension to possibly next year in March. Also, it has given propositions that the cuts could even be deepened.

Volatility has dominated the commodity in recent weeks, with the latest statistics from the United States shale industry showing another huge surge in production.

Futures climbed as much as 1.5 percent in NY after advancing 5.2 percent last week.

As of May 19, 2017, crude oil prices were 7.6% below their highs.

India now imports 86 percent of its oil needs from OPEC states to meet its 4.6 million barrels per day (bpd) refining capacity.

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