Elections Offer Upside To Oil Exports

Libya | Oil & Gas | Mon Jun 16, 2014

BMI View: The outcome oftheJune 25Libyan parliamentary elections is uncertain and volatility inLibyanoil production will continue. That said, if Haftar wona legitimate majority and securedcontrol of parliament this would pose upside risks to oil exports due to the former General's support from rebels holding export terminals in the East. With instability in Iraq causing jitters in the oil market, Libya's 1mn b/d of production upside will play a crucial role in shaping global crude pricesover the remainder of 2014.

On Sunday June 15, production from Libya's El Feel field was reportedly restarted after two months of protests had kept the field offline. The 80,000 barrel per day (b/d) field will bring much needed respite to production levels in Libya, which have struggled at around 200,000b/d due to instability. It will also help to soften the impact of the geopolitical premium being priced-in to global crude benchmarks due to the insurgency in Iraq.

Access all of our latest analysis, data and forecasts - request a trial

Related Articles

We expect China to overtake the US as the world's largest market for crude oil imports in 2015. However, the increa...We expect China to overtake the US as the world's largest market for crude oil imports in 2015. However, the increase in demand from China will still lag behind the fall ...

: We have revised our longer-term outlook for WTI and now forecast an average price of USD57.75/bbl in 2016, rising...: We have revised our longer-term outlook for WTI and now forecast an average price of USD57.75/bbl in 2016, rising to USD65.00/bbl in 2019. This compares to a previous f...