Fantasy Football: Selecting Peyton Manning must be done with care

Sunday

Sep 2, 2012 at 6:00 AM

Josh Bousquet Fantasy Football

It is difficult to place much value in the numbers NFL players rack up during the preseason. They're not always games that teams are trying all-out to win, and in only the third of four matchups do we get an extended look at expected starters.

Still, it seemed an era may have ended when Peyton Manning opened his first two preseason games as a Bronco by not getting a touchdown in 30 pass attempts, while throwing three interceptions.

Sure, the preseason doesn't mean much, but when the highest-profile free agent ever starts his second life in such a manner, it's impossible not to notice.

There was that most-important Game 3 still to go, though, and then Manning completed 10 of 12 passes for 122 yards and two touchdowns (see chart). So maybe all is OK with the world.

Manning could be the player with the biggest chance to sway fantasy outcomes this season. He spent most of his career as a top-five quarterback and has never thrown fewer than 26 touchdowns in a season. One season missed with a neck injury, though, and brother Eli is being drafted above him.

Every write-up on Peyton's fantasy potential this season mentions his neck, and this is understandable to a point; it's definitely the type of injury where any future hint of it threatens his career. But there seems to be an irrational fear that the first “big” hit he takes will rattle him into a permanent neck brace while nurses fan him with palm leaves and feed him grapes.

(He's still Peyton Manning, even laid up, he will retain some awesomeness.)

We just don't want to be caught in an I-should-have-known situation if anything does happen to Manning. This preseason, though, he attempted 42 passes, so it's not as if there are no game reps to go on. He took all those drops, absorbed some hits, and is still going to be the Broncos' starting quarterback this season.

Sure, one shouldn't count on him returning to the ultra-elite, and yes, Manning doesn't have the same cache of offensive weapons he had during his best seasons with the Colts. But I still say that evens out to him being a mid-level quarterback steal instead of a potential letdown.

The players Manning has around him aren't that bad, either. In that third preseason game, he hit six different receivers with his 10 completions. That isn't a bad ratio, even if none of them were named Marvin Harrison or Reggie Wayne.

Some of them are named Eric Decker, Demaryius Thomas and Brandon Stokley, though, players who got some fantasy notice when Tim Tebow was throwing to them. Manning could go out wearing a neck brace and still throw a better ball than Tebow.

This then stands as my official statement of Peyton Manning optimism. It comes with fair warning, however, as I also made one last season.

The Colts' Andrew Luck and the Redskins' Robert Griffin III were destined to get significant fantasy attention even before they were drafted with the top two picks in this year's NFL Draft.

And for this, I blame Cam Newton.

Traditional wisdom had said that rookie quarterbacks were never worth too high a fantasy draft pick. They tend to take some time to get acclimated to the NFL style of play; a QB prospect made for a good backup with potential upside, but shouldn't be relied upon as your starter.

Then in Week 1 last year, Newton threw for 422 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for another score for the Panthers. That vision remained too vivid to not affect this year's top-tier rookie duo.

In my fantasy auction league that drafted last weekend, Luck cost 10 times as much as Newton did the year before, while Griffin (whose playing style is more reminiscent of the Carolina star) went for 12 times the amount.

Both of those players still project as backups in my league, but it seems no one was willing to let anyone get another potential rookie quarterback steal anyway.

History, however, says one of them just overpaid for a Rick Mirer/Ryan Leaf-type, though.

Apparently I didn't time my preseason football columns correctly, as a number of kickers got cut since I covered the position last week.

At least the theme behind that column was how little those players mattered.

The Ravens got rid of Billy Cundiff, but he then landed with the Redskins. That is after Washington cut Neil Rackers, apparently giving the job to Graham Gano — for half a day.