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The first Newspoll of the year has caused Labor to take a knock on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, helped along a little by a softer result from Morgan. Newspoll has also driven up the Greens, whose breakthrough into double figures softens a shift from Labor to Coalition on the primary vote to a 0.8% movement on two-party preferred. That translates into a solid six-point change on the seat projection, which is now back to hung parliament territory. Taking into account Labor’s still solid lead on the two-party result, this demonstrates the height of the bar the BludgerTrack model sets for Labor in making it to an absolute majority, mostly on account of sophomore surge effects in the decisive marginal seats. On the state breakdowns, the Coalition recovers one seat each in Victoria and Tasmania and four in Queensland. The latter is down to the publication of a Galaxy poll of federal voting intention in Queensland from yesterday’s Courier-Mail, which I have thus far failed to comment on. The poll of 800 respondents showed the Coalition with a 52-48 lead  a swing of 5% to Labor from the election, and 4% on the previous such poll in November  from primary votes of 41% for the Coalition (down five on the November poll), 33% for Labor (up three), 7% for the Greens (steady), 4% for Katter’s Australian Party (up one) and 11% for the Palmer United Party (up three). It was evident that BludgerTrack had wandered off the reservation for a while there so far as its Queensland projection was concerned, and the addition of this substantial new data point from a high-quality pollster has returned it to where it probably should have been all along.

There are also two new results to feed into the leadership ratings, one being the regular findings from Newspoll and the other the monthly result from Essential Research. Both have landed in exactly the same place after bias adjustments were added, and the effect has been to maintain the downward momentum for Bill Shorten that emerged when the last numbers were added from Essential Research a month ago. Tony Abbott on the other hand has been in a gentler pattern of decline after the steep fall that followed the Coalition’s polling slip in November, and has a stable lead of slightly below double figures as preferred prime minister. Some good analysis of the leadership ratings is available at the bottom of this post by Kevin Bonham, who previously noted that Shorten’s early ratings were on the mediocre side for a leader new to the job, and now finds similarities with Brendan Nelson and Simon Crean at comparable stages of the game.

Indonesia may have good reason for fearing further trouble in the ME, since together with Turkey anMalaysia they may become the final destination for many millions. If Australia, Europe and Canada close their borders to Muslims, where else could displaced Palestinians or Syrians go? pt

Syria, Iraq, Egypt and Lebanon are essentially trashed, Jordan too small and would not welcome Sheites.

Indonesia and the rights of the Palestinians——-
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-Indo Foreign Minister pledges strong support for the Palestinians and their rights to a state…and will make it a major plank of the Indons foreign policy..with a major world Conf later in the year in Jakarta..
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This coming on top of Bishop’s statement of suppprt for the building of illegal jewish settlements on the West Bank…is just another area where the two govts will have major disagreements

Rossmcg all individuals are subject to the same tax on personal income. The difference with trusts is the ability to direct trust profit where you get the best tax advantage. For ordinary salary earners an equivalent would be tax splitting in a single income family.

People who support trusts argue that beneficiaries all contribute to the trust income so deserve a share. It’s really a shallow argument but so far it has won the argument.

Hit a lot of small businesses and farming families. Does that mean they would pay the same tax as people who work for wages?
If I recall correctly reform of the tax arrangements for trust was something that Peter Costello mentioned. I think he was quickly slapped down by the Nats and it was never mentioned again.

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madcyril, I havent been able to listen to Ch9 commentary for years now, this year i went to a new level of heavenly enjoyment by listening to BBC radio, didnt matter it was 4 balls behind the vision.
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Simon

Yes I listened to the BBC radio coverage at work and it was very enjoyable. I can’t cope with the radio being out of whack with the TV coverage and just have to put up with Channel 9’s shambolic efforts. Still, if that’s the biggest problem I face this year, I’ll be doing well!

Tom simply because it is allowed under current tax legislation and no government has had the courage to try and change that mainly because it will hit a lot of small business families and farming families. The simple way to fix it is to tax trusts at the same rate as companies and allow the beneficiaries a franking credit.