Fantasy Fallout: What is the Impact of the Logan Forsythe Trade?

by Ray Kuhn

With the acquisition of Logan Forsythe, the Dodgers ensured that they will be going into the season with a definitive solution at second base. It will not have the same impact as Brian Dozier would have, but Forsythe has the potential to be a valuable piece for Los Angeles.

The question then, from a fantasy perspective, is how much and to what extent?

Forsythe’s role is not going to change following the trade, he will still be a starting second baseman and the lead-off hitter, but he now is part of a better lineup than he was in Tampa Bay. While that will give Forsythe a slight boost, I otherwise would expect more of the same from him in 2017. So, let’s take a look at what that is.

We essentially have two years of data with which to evaluate the 30-year second baseman, and while that is not a perfect set of data, there is enough to at least get a baseline for what Forsythe is. And his best quality, which is why he will be batting lead-off for the Dodgers, is his .347 OBP in the last two seasons.

Last season, Forsythe saw his contact rate drop from 79% to 75% while his batting average dipped from .281 to .264. In those two seasons, Forsythe’s expected batting average was .255 and .259 respectively. Unless we see an improvement in his contact rate, which I would not bank on, Forsythe is a likely .260 hitter which makes him more valuable in leagues that count OBP as opposed to batting average.

After hitting 17 home runs two years ago, Forsythe went deep 20 times last season in 511 at bats. He was aided by a 15% home run/fly ball rate which helped to make up for his six percent decrease in fly balls last season (41% to 35%). Forsythe has also maintained above average power, 110 (expected 115) with 100 being average, and that is a skill we can expect him to maintain along with his 110 Hard Contact Rate. That along with his 23% line drive rate, means that Forsythe will continue to be a solid contributor from a fantasy perspective.

While he has just 15 steals over the past two seasons, Forsythe has speed 22% above the league average, but he was not utilized as a stolen base threat in Tampa Bay. That is a situation that will bear watching with the Dodgers as there could be some potential value.

On the surface, it’s hard to argue about our expectations for Forsythe this season. And they happen to be relatively boring to be honest. Expecting a season in which Forsythe bats .260 with 20 home runs, 60 RBI, and 80 runs scored appears to be reasonable.

Currently, Forsythe is being selected as the 19th overall second baseman with an ADP of 240.3. That is the correct draft position for him, as we should resist the urge to overrate him following his trade to Los Angeles.

Source – Baseball HQ

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