• Probability of new left-wing party rises • New Zealand First drops below 5% threshold • National/Act/UnitedFuture to have numbers to govern with or without Maori Party • Contracts for East Coast Bays, Rongotai, West Coast-Tasman and Whanganui to be launched at noon today

Commentary:Rebel Maori Party MP Hone Harawira is now expected to win his Te Tai Tokerau electorate as an independent or for a party other than the Maori Party, this week’s snapshot from New Zealand’s prediction market, iPredict, indicates. The change in prices follows disciplinary action against Mr Harawira being initiated by his colleagues after a column he wrote in the Sunday Star-Times. National’s John Key continues to be expected to remain Prime Minister, and could govern with the support of the Act and UnitedFuture parties.

Since last week’s snapshot, the probability of a new left-wing party around at least two of former Alliance President and current Unite National Secretary Matt McCarten, former Green MP Sue Bradford and Mr Harawira has increased from 15% to 33%, but remains below 50%. The probability of a new right-wing party around former National Party leader and Reserve Bank Governor Don Brash remains lower, steady at 11%.