November 07, 2012

Speaker of the House John A. Boehner (R - OH) has just delivered
the opening statement in what is sure to be a difficult lame duck debate within
Congress over avoiding the fiscal cliff.
If lawmakers fail to act, the combination of expiring tax cuts and arbitrary
spending reductions will be automatically triggered in two months time. The consequences
for the American economy could be disastrous,
according to the Congressional Budget Office.

Of those reductions, those affecting the
Pentagon have received disproportionate
attention. What role the Pentagon budget should play in avoiding the fiscal cliff has
been hotly debated, with many – but
by no means all – conservatives calling for a deal to exempt the DoD from
cuts. Some, most notably Buck Mckeon (R-CA), have even called to reverse the cuts already in place, even though those "cuts" are from projected budgetary increases and the Pentagon budget is still on course to rise slightly over the next decade.

But Boehner may have just signaled a
significant softening of the GOP position. In his speech, he dedicated only one sentence
to Pentagon spending to oppose “slashing” the DoD budget. Crucially, this is not objecting to reductions in Pentagon
spending as such – a rhetorical fact which is likely indicative of GOP intentions when
uttered in such a calibrated address. This interpretation would seem to be
corroborated by House Majority Leader Eric Cantor's (R-VA) statements today when he
similarly indicated merely opposing “massive defense cuts.”

In looking forward to near-term the work required to avoid the fiscal cliff, it seems that the GOP
leadership now tacitly agrees that Pentagon spending should remain on the
table.

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