* Without offering up any actual evidence, other than black people will likely vote for Sen. Kwame Raoul instead of Gov. Pat Quinn if Raoul runs for governor and the lack of a finished product from Raoul’s pension reform committee, Laura Washington writes…

Now the consultants and operatives are whispering in Raoul’s ear, and telling him what he wants to hear.

You can do it! They urge: You are a black legislator who occupies the state Senate seat once held by Barack Obama. You are respected by Chicago’s black leadership and progressive activists. You’re a WTTW regular, gee whiz!

You are smooth and suave, you’ve got a 1,000-watt smile, they coo. You can raise bucks and show off your policy resume, they wheedle. You can drum up enthusiasm among black voters in Cook County and downstate. Geez, you even have a funny name. Look where that got Obama?

The big question: Will State Sen. Kwame Raoul, who replaced now-President Barack Obama in the state senate, run for governor in the Dem primary and split the vote by siphoning off the African-American and Hispanic votes?

◆ Here’s the deal: If Raoul does run, it’s because he got the green light from his boss, powerful Senate President John Cullerton, who is no fan of Gov. Pat Quinn.

* First of all, as subscribers already know, the polling shows that Democrats aren’t just hungry for another candidate to run, they’re practically starving for it. From an August 12th, Capitol Fax/We Ask America poll of 1,536 likely Democratic primary voters…

Currently, two Democrats have declared their candidacy for governor: Former White House Chief of Staff William Daley and current governor Pat Quinn. We’d like to know whether or not you’re satisfied with your choices, or if you’d prefer additional choices on the ballot.

Satisfied 43.25%
Not satisfied 47.50%
Not sure 9.25%

So, a strong majority is either dissatisfied with their choices or aren’t sure. The voters clearly want somebody else.

*** UPDATE *** I forgot to mention that the poll found 57 percent of African-American Democrats were dissatisfied with their choices and another 12 percent were unsure. Just 31 percent were satisfied with their current choices. Whites were split 45-45.

[ *** End Of Update *** ]

* Also, both columnists may have forgotten that Cook County ain’t everything. Quinn is despised in Downstate and Daley isn’t trusted there. A Downstate running mate for Raoul as well as assistance from his fellow state Senators could help him put together the plurality needed to win.

And it’s not just Downstaters. Sen. Daniel Biss brought Raoul into his Evanston-based district for a forum earlier this month…

Raoul said the governor has the “luxury” to act “ignorant of the negotiations that took place in the months prior to the amendatory veto and come in and say, ‘If I had a chance to partake in it, I would have done this.’”

“Well you did have a chance to partake in it, and you did partake in it, and those things fell,” Raoul noted.

He’ll be getting that sort of help from lots of his colleagues all over the state should he decide to run.

* Next, what does a stalking horse look like? A good example would be Roland Burris, 2002. He received one big contribution, hardly campaigned at all, and siphoned enough black votes away from Paul Vallas to allow Rod Blagojevich to win. If Raoul runs a non-credible race, then, yeah, he’s little more than a stalking horse. So far, at least, he doesn’t appear to be doing so from this vantage point.

In any event, don’t you think you’d have to look at the campaign he puts together before you decide he’s essentially just shilling for Daley? C’mon.

Raoul said he was offended that Sun-Times columnist Laura Washington suggested his running for governor would help challenger Bill Daley, by undermining Quinn’s support among black voters.

“The notion that I would be characterized as a spoiler ­— it’s a bit of an insult,” he said.

* And, yes, Cullerton is working hard for Raoul, but it’s not up to him to give Raoul a final “green light.”

* By the way, Raoul also told the Sun-Times that he would be deciding on a run in the next ten days…

“I give myself 10 days or so to make up my mind,” Raoul said. “This is something that’s spiraling out of my control. I don’t think it does the party or the state any good to let it linger very long.” […]

Raoul’s remarks came at a South Side park where Quinn signed a new gun-safety law that Raoul sponsored. At a news conference, the governor said Raoul did more than anyone to win the measure’s approval.

When asked in an interview to rate Quinn’s record in office, Raoul replied, “I think the governor came into office under very challenging circumstances . . . He shouldn’t get all the credit. He shouldn’t get all the blame.”

* And, finally, a trip down memory lane. Washington once wrote this about then Senate President Emil Jones’ remarks regarding another Hyde Park Democrat…

African-American leadership, Jones says, must get past “the crabs in a barrel syndrome. Every time one of us pulls up, we want to pull him down.”

A Rauner vs. Raoul race would provide not only relief from boredom but also, perhaps, some interesting choices. We voters need relief from the endless mediocrity (and worse) of recent decades. Quinn/Brady/Dillard/Daley, these guys are all so yesterday. Not an original thought in sight. Can’t we get ourselves out of this rut?

I like Senator Raoul. I respect his record. I respect his statement about dragging this out. He clearly understands that what is best for the voters, and for his party, is to make a decision sooner rather than later. However, if pension reform isnt done, i think it could be pinned on him. Not that its his fault, but that he chaired the reform committee and pledged not to run unless its work is done. If he backtracks on that pledge, his primary opponents will rightly point that out as often as possible. When he accepted the reigns of this committee, he accepted responsibility for the outcome. If he sticks with it, and the committee generates a bill that will reform and save the state’s pension system, he will be able to add that to his growing list of legislative accomplishments. I would suggest that he stay out of this race, get pension reform done and own it, then begin putting together a run in 2018. Assuming that Governor Quinn wont run again in 2018, I suspect a lot of Quinn supporters, like myself, would immediately flock to Senator Raoul.

Raoul has what many Illinois Democrats are looking for. The Hype Park background with the big government outlook. What Democrat in Illinois will be the first to call for a change in the state constitution to enact these thrilling Blue state income tax rates????

Question is, how many of those vital county chairs and other powerful individuals will back him over Quinn or Daley? For instance, we’ve spent the past few days discussing Zuccarelli and the votes he brings to the table for Quinn.

And if Kwame isn’t the first choice of many of those key vote-drivers around the state, can he build enough popular appeal statewide to overcome that obstacle? Can he overcome the top-down structure the Democratic party enjoys today?

Any chance that Quinn may court him for Lite Guv running mate? Any chance Raoul may be strategizing for something similar? An entry into the race 2 weeks after Cook County slating, when you’re trying to collect support from Cook County, would be very odd. If there’s one place where Cook County slating matters, it’s Cook County.

This topic sorta reminds me of sports talk radio, where people call in suggesting trades like “How about we trade the Dodgers Shingo Takatsu and picks for Matt Kemp?” and the host keeps having to say “Why would the Dodgers do that?” And then the caller tries to think up some silly reason that an ardently hoped-for outcome will happen. I usually love RM’s & word’s insights, but I think Quinn hating is distorting their powers of logic today.

“A good example would be Roland Burris, 2002. He received one big contribution, hardly campaigned at all, and siphoned enough black votes away from Paul Vallas to allow Rod Blagojevich to win.”

Burris was not a stalking horse, he just thought he should have been appointed gov and that entire election thing was in the way. Yes, he had the impact of a semi-credible candidate / stalking horse and took votes Vallas needed, but those votes were never on the table as long as RB was in the race.

RE RB impact, yes he garnered the AA vote, as he had in his previous two gov races and other statewide runs (~ 80% in the City), as should have been expected. Vallas had the illusion that he was going to get a lot of AA vote, just because he was in charge of CPS (he was wrong and advised that his assessment was wrong). In fact Blagojevich actually got more / about the same AA vote in the City AA Wards than Vallas while only putting in significantly less timme / resources. Vallas lost because of many factors, including poor performance in the AA wards, but also a pathetic showing downstate - largely because of lack of money, time and resources expended there and Blago running up the score there early in the game.

At first glance it might look like Raoul would just help Daley win by pulling black voters from Quinn. While I don’t think that polling at this stage is too important, it does give an overall picture of a wide-open race. With Cook County and most other county chairmen backing Quinn, I see no way for Daley to win regardless of whether Raoul gets in. His entry would change the fundamental dynamics of the race, and not just because of his race. This would be a sitting senator, with the backing of John Cullerton, challenging a sitting governor. That would cause real re-thinking among a lot of people in the Democratic Party. Quinn has already lined up a lot of support, and Cullerton is one of probably two people who could bring bodies and money to the table for a serious challenger. Daley would almost become an afterthought in a scenario like that.

black voting strength can elect a black mayor, two black US Senators (was carol brau a stalking horse for Al Hofeld) and a black president so why not a black governor–do the math–this is called opportunity!

The whole stalking horse idea is a false premise. Senator Raoul may hurt Daley even more than Quinn. I think he beats them both, and I hope he decides to run.

Because he is appealing on so many levels. Smart, likeable and experienced. Quinn and Daley both fail to impress and don’t come across as likeable. Quinn loves to talk about his 2010 election mandate, but those were not votes of enthusiasm in the primary or in the General.

The Kassamoron and his newsette bought the stalking horse line too so maybe ERV is “leaking” to help CounsinBrucey
Meanwhile all seem to forget the results of three ways in IL when solid African American candidates are in the field

I think Bill Daley needs this to be a one-on-one with Quinn to have a shot. Any credible candidate, of any race, gender or geography, who gets in pretty much ends Daley’s chances by splitting the anti-Quinn vote. Raoul is the kind of candidate who could actually win, which is the opposite of a stalking horse.

And the Emil Jones flashback quote is priceless Rich. From what I hear, the former Senate President is clawing away at Raoul, trying to keep him down in the barrel.

Laura washington is a terrible political analyst who doesn’t have her finger on the pulse of black voters..Sneed has been in the pocket of the white Irish establishment since she was the schiil for Jayne Byrne! Raoul has a real chance of victory if he can get the unions because unions will outwork county chairmen everyday of the week.

Raoul is not going to get “the unions”. He may get the public employee unions, but Quinn has the trade unions locked up. Raoul would have Cullerton and public employees behind him. Daley would have… what? North shore/SW side whites are not gonna be enough to win a D primary.

Downstaters just don’t like Quinn…and they probably won’t give anyone named Daley a second look. That would leave Raoul. If he’s a good campaigner and actively campaigns in ALL parts of the state, he’ll win the nomination…and depending on the GOP nominee, would win the general, thanks to the Chicago vote.

===From what I hear, the former Senate President is clawing away at Raoul, trying to keep him down in the barrel. ===

From that above linked Laura Washington story…

===In early February, according to the political news site Politico.com, Jones flew to Washington, D.C. to speak to the Democratic National Committee’s black caucus. He used the platform to make a no-nonsense plea that black Democrats coalesce behind Obama, noting that they don’t “owe” any allegiance to other presidential contenders, àla Hillary Clinton.

He noted the jobs and appointments President Bill Clinton had doled out to blacks. Some of those people were in the room. Then Jones went in for the kill—he asked when they would stop owing the Clintons.

Some Clinton allies in the room were livid. “‘You could hear a pin drop,’ said one person in the room who doesn’t currently support either Obama or Clinton,” the Web site reported. Jones says he’s not backing off. ===

If Sen. Raoul gets into the race, I can figure a path to victory for each of the three.

And I don’t see how he is damaged if he runs and loses. He gains statewide name recognition, and I don’t think there’s much shame in losing an uphill race — at least not if he puts real effort into the campaign and makes a credible showing.

I’m not saying he should run — but I don’t see why Ms. Washington is so disparaging of this.

No one owns the right to any political office. Raoul has as might right to run for office as anyone. Plus , he didn’t get wealthy taking TARP from federal taxpayers like Bill Daley. That alone should disqualify Bill Daley from elected or appointed office.

Kwame Raoul’s appearance in Evanston with State Senator should not surprise anyone: for quite a few years Raoul was based in Evanston and he formerly worked in the law office of Evanston alderman Lionel Jean Baptiste (Baptiste is now a Circuit Court Judge). Raoul was tight with the Jan Schakowsky/Bob Cremer political machine before he moved South to take Obama’s vacant State Senate seat where he wooed the committeeman. Raoul was not Obama’s preferred candidate for the vacancy in Springfield.

As a melanin-deprived downstater, do I need to ask Ms. Washington’s permission to vote for Senator Raoul? Or, because I’m a hick from the sticks, does she demand that I restrict myself to choosing between the too-polished scion of an exhausted brand or the incompetent incumbent?

If I can’t vote Raoul, I’ll stay home (or pull an “R” ballot so I can vote for Rutherford).

I would like to hear more on his pension ideas. He did pretty well working with the south on gun issues. Pick a John Bradley or Brandon Phelps for Lt. and he would beat Quinn and Daley like a drum in this area.

I agree with Washington…she’s stating her opinion…Raoul needs to sit this one out, gain experience and amass an organization…we dont need any more not quite ready for prime time players…BTW, isn’t Tio Hardiman officially in as the African American candidate?

i figure Quinn has an 80 percent likelihood of beating Daley and probably a 70 percent likelihood of winning a three way.

Combined, Kwame and Daley still dont have Hynes’ strengths.

Kwame will not be a spoiler, but he will most certainly succeed in helping the unions and a few others extract promises from Quinn before they endorse him. And make no mistake, just as the Cook Democratic Party ended up backing Quinn unanimously, most if not all liberal groups will back Quinn in the end.

Is running and losing in Kwame’s longer term interest? He is the one to decide that. but i thought he would be better off running for states attorney.

Rich, no black cap law-I’m not looking for a spoiler of any color or creed in the race…but if there is more than one candidate of color, the race will be further split-just sayin, take it easy man..you misconstrue…

===if there is more than one candidate of color, the race will be further split===

You’re assuming that black people will vote for anybody who is black. It’s never been the case at the top of the ticket. The candidate needs to be credible, and I doubt Tio is gonna be credible, or can even get on the ballot.

Boy IL politics have been interesting this summer. Better than any telenovela, though maybe the characters aren’t as hot. Lol. I digress. PQ wins. Even if Raoul gets in. Can a R pick him off though?? Doubtful.