The Liberals suffered a massive blow in Toronto Monday night, ceding most of the power in their 416 stronghold to Conservative and New Democrat candidates.

Leader Michael Ignatieff was among fifteen Liberal incumbents who lost their seats in Parliament in what marks a dramatic victory for Stephen Harper’s Conservative Party, that had been previously shut out of the 416.

The Conservatives picked up nine ridings, while the NDP won eight. There are 23 seats in Toronto.

Despite assurances from Mr. Ignatieff that the Liberals would hold on to its 21 Toronto seats, political observers were predicting that their control was in jeopardy — although no one expected such a dramatic change.

Conservative Bernard Trottier beat Mr. Ignatieff in Etobicoke Lakeshore by more than 2,000 votes. Etobicoke Centre was impossible to call until the last poll came in: Liberal incumbent Boris Wrzesnewskyj narrowly lost to Conservative Ted Opitz by 26 votes, which is slim enough to trigger an official recount.

“This campaign has been about change and I think the credit is due to NDP leader Jack Layton,” said NDP winner Peggy Nash in a victory speech after reclaiming Parkdale-High Park from Liberal MP Gerard Kennedy, once a contender to be Liberal leader. NDP MP Olivia Chow retained her Trinity-Spadina seat and was jubilant in her victory speech.

“I can never say thank you often enough, or in all the languages that people speak in Trinity-Spadina,” she told cheering supporters at her victory party.

Joe Oliver, victor in Eglinton-Lawrence, called the Conservative result a “magnificent victory” and proof that Toronto “wanted in”

“I do believe the central issue was the economy and the fact that this Prime Minister saw us through an international financial crisis to the point that we are performing better economically than any other country in the developed world. The message of economic stability was paramount,” said Mr. Oliver.

Toronto Mayor Rob Ford, who endorsed Prime Minister Harper last week, congratulated him on his victory. “I look forward to our continued, positive working relationship with the federal government focusing on the transportation and economic priorities of the residents of Toronto,” Mayor Ford said in a statement.

Observers predicted the dramatic surge in NDP Orange popularity in recent polls could have a big impact on Liberal fortunes in Toronto, whether by losing power to the NDP or splitting the progressive vote to the benefit of the Tories. ”I would be surprised if they don’t take big chunks out of [Liberal support],” said Nelson Wiseman, a political expert at the University of Toronto said earlier in the day. Ryerson University professor Duncan MacLellan was more circumspect, suggesting that the Liberal Fortress Toronto would start to show some cracks, but still hold firm.

Conservative strategists thought a handful of ridings were within striking distance, most notably Ken Dryden’s ward, Joe Volpe’s stomping grounds and Rob Oliphant’s seat in Don Valley West. The battle between NDP incumbent Olivia Chow and Liberal challenger Christine Innes was also supposed to be much closer with 8,000 new condos in the downtown riding changing the demographics of what has traditionally been a high immigrant population. Ms. Chow held on comfortably.

The Liberals retained a few key ridings, including Bob Rae’s Toronto Centre, St. Paul’s, held by Carolyn Bennett, and York West remained in Judy Sgro’s hands. Mr. Rae, in his victory speech, was sombre but confident that his party would rebuild.

“The Liberal Party will come back again, we will once again be there to serve Canadians,” said Bob Rae. He deflected questions by a reporter on CP24 about whether he was interested in being the next leader.

“I think that’s part of the longer discussion. It’s not about me… I think everybody has to consider what’s in the best interest of the party and what’s in the best interest of the country.”

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