I founded Endpoint Technologies Associates, Inc., an independent technology market intelligence company, in 2005. Previously, I was vice president of Client Computing at IDC, covering client PCs (desktop and mobile computers). Before that, I ran my own research and analysis firm, directed operations for a developer of multilingual text processing software, ran a technology analysis and publishing practice for a consulting company, managed international accounts for a data communications equipment manufacturer, and did new product development for a computerized trading network. I have published in a variety of forums and been quoted in a number of publications and other media outlets. I snagged a B.F.A. from Bennington College and an MBA from the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business. I am multilingual, world-traveled, and have bicycled over the Alps, but am now a family man.
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Tablets Set To Take Over The World

Tomorrow, AppleApple, MicrosoftMicrosoft, and NokiaNokia will introduce new tablets, and everyone will be watching. Well, not everyone, but everyone in Silicon Valley and kindred groves, vales, and alleys.

The heightened interest comes as major research firms indicate that tablets are likely to outsell PCs in two short years. Gartner has just released a new forecast revision that highlights this change of fortunes. It shows smartphones rising slowly, tablets on a tear, and PCs dropping like a stone.

Gartner categorizes something called “ultramobile” with PCs. The firm forecasts that in the PC subcategories, which include desktops and notebooks, only ultramobiles will grow. The term ultramobile represents a form factor made up mostly of Ultrabooks, a cryptonym invented by IntelIntel to represent the lightest and thinnest of notebooks. Other suppliers include Advanced Micro DevicesAdvanced Micro Devices (AMD), which calls them Ultraslims. But this one bright spot is not enough to offset the overall decline in PCs.

There is a bit of sleight of hand about the way tablets are marketed. Essentially, a tablet is a slab of glass with a computer behind it. But add an accessory keyboard, and voilà! An ultramobile! And the newest class of light notebooks — 2-in-1s — allow the screen (with computer behind it) to be removed from the keyboard, and abracadabra! A tablet!

But these ambiguities can’t hide what is essentially a sea change in the personal computing market. The old guard — represented by Microsoft, Intel, and their extensive ecosystems — is being offset by the new kings of the hill — Apple, GoogleGoogle, ARM HoldingsARM Holdings, and their champions. Both Intel and Microsoft have a toe in the high mobility world, but only just a toe. All the real volume is coming from the other side. And PCs, unloved by the fickle public, sit for the most part undisturbed on retail shelves, nursing their damaged self-esteem.

Back in March, 2012, I put together a graphic to show the technology divide. The left side shows the traditional personal computing stack in blue, the right depicts the “post-PC” stack in pink, and the shared technologies inhabit the middle, in purple. While I’ll be the first to admit that my art is no Guernica, the information has held up surprisingly well. The forces on the right side remain in ascendancy while the forces on the left are in decline.

Of the announcements tomorrow, it should be understood that only Apple’s is of any real consequence. After all, Nokia and Microsoft are now really the same company, and Microsoft has made pretty much a total shemozzle out of its efforts to field a decent mobile machine. People still can’t figure out which end to grab a Windows 8 tablet by.

But as Gartner has pointed out, Apple is not alone in enjoying this great market shift. Google has managed to figure out how to work the basic controls, and Android-based tablets will certainly give iOS a run for its money over the next few years.

In the midst of all this tabletry, it is only fair that I give my own take on the subject. And here’s the truth: I have not yet bought a tablet myself. Yes, I’ve used them here and there, and I have a couple of Windows and Android units gathering dust around the office, demos sent by the manufacturers for my assessment. I haven’t used any of them for more than a few minutes at a time. Why? you might ask, if you’re not bored already and didn’t abandon this article higher up the page.

And the answer would be simple. I’m not the target market. I don’t “consume content,” that nutritious-sounding phrase that describes watching movies on a screen. I don’t even have a working TV. My kids pursue whatever video they want on the Internets. And when we want to watch a movie, during those rare stretches of a few idle hours, we use some crazy rig I hooked up years ago to play a DVD or run NetflixNetflix. On the road, I work (on a notebook, because my work is mostly typing), listen to podcasts with my eyes closed, or read — gasp — a paper book.

But none of that dims my belief that tablets are taking over. Yes, tablets will grow keyboards when they’ve sufficiently killed PCs, but the new guard is dealing with an entirely different architecture, one which fits the public’s demand for instant-on, easy-to-use, touch-oriented computing, and that’s mostly Apple’s bailiwick, with healthy contributions from Google.

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