Scenario of sustainable development

There will be two scenarios for carrying capacity presented below.

Figure 1 Uncontrolled Development,
"Overshoot and Collapse"

Scenario 1: Uncontrolled Development

As shown in figure 1, consumption of natural resources, including
deforestation, is very rapid. In the present in developing countries it pushes
up the carrying capacity very quickly, but only in the short term. In the longer
term, it will have drastic environmental and ecological consequences. The
population will increase as the carrying goes up and will continue even after it
starts to decrease. The result will be a deficit between population and the
carrying capacity, which may result in famine or refugees. Desertification will
progress for many long years leading to extinction of civilization. There is
much evidence for this in human history: consider for example Egypt, Greece,
Mesopotamia, etc.

Such a pattern is called "overshoot and collapse." The world is
presently on this route.

Scenario 2: Sustainable Development

As proposed in table 1, it is very difficult to meet the criteria
for sustainable development. In order to do so, consumption of natural resources
and industrial production should be controlled.

The increase of carrying capacity will be much more moderate,
which will allow a gentle curve of population increase, and finally an
equilibrium, as shown in figure 2. The birth and the death rate may be almost
the same at an equilibrium, with an increased number of aged persons. The goal
of reaching such a curve is not attractive to ambitious politicians, but we
should establish a consensus among nations for sustainable development.