This tropical cyclone was located approximately 780 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California…moving west-northeastward at 10 mph.

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Andres is just below hurricane strength. Although an eye feature is no longer apparent in infrared and visible satellite images, the associated convection has been deepening during the past few hours.

Microwave images show that the structure of Andres is asymmetric with well-defined cloud banding to the south of the center, and more fragmented bands to the north of the center.

Wind shear over the storm is expected to persist for another 12 to 24 hours, but will likely lessen some thereafter. Therefore, slow strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, while the tropical cyclone remains over warm water. Beyond a couple of days, Andres is expected to move over cooler sea surface temperatures, and into a drier and more stable air mass. These unfavorable thermodynamic conditions should cause the system to weaken.

The official intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one, and lies at the high end of the model guidance. Andres continues on a west-northwestward track at about 8 knots. A weakness in the subtropical ridge should cause the storm to move northwestward during the next day or two. After that time, a turn back to the west-northwest is predicted, when a high pressure ridge restrengthens to the north of the storm.

Maximum sustained surface winds, according the NHC’s warning #6, were 60 knots…with gusts to 75 knots. The National Hurricane Center expects Andres’ winds to peak on May 31st near 90 mph…before a weakening trend begins.

At the same time, there’s continues to be an area of disturbed weather to the east of tropical storm Andres, although as was the case yesterday, it has a low zero chance of developing over the next 24 hours. Here’s asatellite imageof this area in yellow, along with Andres a distance to the west.

This first tropical cyclone of the season, is expected to remain far enough offshore from the Mexican coast…that there will be no threat to land. The first named storm of the season typically become active around June 10th, which makes Andres almost two weeks ahead of schedule.

According to the database of Eastern Pacific storms, the formation of a tropical storm in May in the Eastern Pacific is not that unusual however, as 33 named storms have formed in May in the 45 years…since satellite records began back in 1970.

Meanwhile, sea surface temperatures are warmer than normal, at least 2°F above average in this area, with the strengthening El Niño largely responsible. El Nino conditions typically support increased hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific basins…so that many other tropical cyclones are likely to follow Andres lead in the eastern Pacific.

According to NOAA, the 2015 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook indicates that an above-normal season is most likely, with a 70% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 5% chance of a below normal season.

The main climate factor expected to enhance the 2015 eastern Pacific hurricane season is El Niño, which is now present and is predicted to last throughout the hurricane season. Many models predict this El Niño to strengthen further as the season progresses.

El Niño decreases the wind shear over the eastern tropical Pacific, which favors more and stronger tropical storms and hurricanes. El Niño is already affecting the wind and rainfall patterns across the equatorial and subtropical Pacific Ocean.

Also, the sea surface temperatures patterns that have been associated with decreased hurricane activity in the eastern Pacific since 1995 are not expected during the 2015 season, and are therefore not expected to compete with El Niño’s conducive wind patterns.

For the 2015 hurricane season, NOAA estimates a 70% chance of occurrence for each of the following ranges of activity:

15-22 named storms,

7-12 hurricanes,

5-8 major hurricanes

Eastern North Pacific

1.A small area of disorganized cloudiness and showers associated with a tropical wave is located several hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico. Upper-level winds are not expected to be favorable during the next few days while the system moves slowly west-northwestward, but they could become more conducive for development early next week.

Central North Pacific

The central north Pacific hurricane season officially ended on November 30. Therefore, the last regularly scheduled tropical weather outlook of the 2014 hurricane season has occurred. Routine issuance of the tropical weather outlook will resume on June 1, 2015. During the off-season, special tropical weather outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

The Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) will begin its coverage of the central Pacific again on June 1, 2015.

North Arabian Sea

As I mentioned when we met recently at BNPB HQ Jakarta, I want to extend my appreciation to you, to your colleagues at PDC, and to USAID/OFDA for your hard work and dedication – and for your tangible results – in building capabilities and capacities for disaster risk reduction in Indonesia, especially in the area of hazard monitoring and early warning.

Daniel B. Whitley

Acting Associate Administrator, Foreign Agricultural Service (2017)

"On behalf of USDA's Foreign Agricultural Services, I would like to express my appreciation and full support of the Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) for its essential contributions...with data and support...we've been able to improve our global agricultural production and disaster assessment analyses, products, and decision outcomes."

Harlan V. Hale

Regional Advisor, USAID/DCHA/OFDA/EAP

"From a disaster management perspective, these agencies [PDC, HOT, PetaBencana.id] have combined their skills, have worked well together, and have created something that is really innovative, useful, and can actually improve both the disaster response by the government and citizen's participation in it as well."

“Keep up the good work. I'm using EMOPS (DisasterAWARE) in Texas to monitor Hurricane Harvey.”

Eric Yarrell

Lieutenant Colonel, United States Air Force, JTF-Bravo (2017)

"JTF-Bravo sincerely appreciated the HADR decision-support information provided by the Pacific Disaster Center during Hurricane Irma response… has been both timely and valuable support of current operations."

Susan Cruz

Director, Office of Civil Defense (2015)

"We are very appreciative of your support to our country."

Augusto Moreno O'Phelan

Director General for Policy and Strategy, Ministry of Defense, Peru (2016)

"Many thanks for your important information about the ongoing outbreak of Zika virus in the Americas."

"…thank you all for the assistance you have rendered on so many occasions to The BNGISC but more importantly to The Bahamas."

Claudia Mateo

President, Republica Domincana Comisión Nacional de Energía

"Thank you for being aware of our situation and for the sending of images for analysis."

William I. Clark

Humanitarian Assistance Division Chief, U.S. SOUTHCOM (2017)

Our success during response efforts is directly related to PDC's contribution. The set of tools offered by your decision support system (DisasterAWARE), the large amount of data, the modeling and assessments, and skill set of your staff are unique. They provide my team with great situational awareness in a timely manner, enabling rapid and informed decision making in critical periods."

Don Price

Disaster Management Advisor, U.S. Forest Service, Myanmar (2017)

"The big floods in Southern China are causing some real problems for Vietnam and Myanmar and DMRS/EMOPS (DisasterAWARE) is the best visualization for this regional flood situation."

Ana Ake

Ministry of Information and Communications, Kingdom of Tonga (2017)

"I was first introduced to EMOPS (DisasterAWARE)...during a HA/DR training in Auckland this year. I've worked with several tools and it is obvious that EMOPS is the only sustainable tool that is available and is openly available."

Dr. Sutopo Purwo Nugroho

Head of Data, Information, and Public Relations, BNPB (2017)

"Thank you very much for your support in Mt Agung eruption. Very useful to us."

"[I] wanted to pass along that the reports that PDC is generating are succinct and extremely informative. I've passed along to other colleagues in the HQs staff and other COCOMs to peak their interest. Well done!"

Christopher Vaughan

FEMA National Headquarters Geospatial Information Officer (2015)

"My sincerest thanks to the PDC team during this event. [Tropical Cyclone Dolphin] Your professionalism and dedication to the mission is to be commended. I'm sure we will have plenty to discuss/improve upon in the weeks to follow. Thanks again for all the support. Great job team."

USDA Foreign Agriculture Service officer

USDA (2016)

"Your suggestion that we look at PDC content and capabilities has really paid off. We partnered with them, and are ingesting their global disaster feeds into [Global Agricultural & Disaster Assessment System] GADAS. The addition of a couple of our own applications to quickly delineate impacted areas and extract agricultural acreage and population has proved quite valuable."

Jeremy K. Delancy

Senior Assistant Secretary, Ministry of Social Services & Community Development, Commonwealth of The Bahamas (2016)

"I wanted [PDC] to know that I used DisasterAWARE during Hurricane Joaquin and it performed admirably. Some further training will be needed for us to use it to its full capabilities. One of the persons who was quite impressed is Chief Meteorological Officer, Mr. Arnold King."

"I knew of 'InAWARE' and I am impressed by its capabilities. Information sharing in the humanitarian context is still a big challenge (especially in ASEAN), and the efforts you are putting to close this gap are highly appreciated, and indeed highly useful for the whole humanitarian community."

Kenta Hamasaki

The Consulate General of Japan, Honolulu, HI (2016)

"Aloha Julie. Hello. After the registration [for DisasterAWARE], I started to receive warnings such as Typhoon Meranti. That data contains necessary info and is so graphic that it's easy to know at a glance how the impact is. This is very important for our duties. Thank you again."

Jonathan Colwell

Goespatial Coordinator, DHS-FEMA Region 9 (2016)

"EMOPS (DisasterAWARE) made my day so much easier while monitoring [Tropical Cyclone] AMOS. Data that I thought I'd spend a good part of the morning digging for was available, as were the tools to draw polygons and annotate and meet the requirement."

"I work for the Virginia DOT as an emergency planner. I would like to be added to your distribution list for awareness products. I followed work during Hurricane Mathew and would like to avail our organization of your great products."

Jesse Rozelle

Program Manager, Natural Hazards Risk Assessment Program, FEMA (2017)

"Aloha PDC team: I wanted to express my sincere gratitude for all of your support during Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. The modeling and risk assessment support you have provided to FEMA has been incredibly helpful for our response efforts and our emergency management partners. I'm looking forward to a continued partnership."

PDC's support in the SOUTHCOM region and its commitment to promote public safety were unfailing during the Rio Olympics. [DisasterAWARE] greatly enhanced our situational awareness and offered an abundance of useful data and safety monitoring information."

Marcus Elten

United Nations OCHA (2016)

"I was impressed with how quickly you guys developed situational awareness products...quite impressed with your team's work."

Dr. Sutopo Purwo Nugroho

Head of Data, Information, and Public Relations for Indonesia's National Disaster Management Agency, BNPB

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