Bruno Waterfield has been the Brussels correspondent for the Telegraph since 2007. He has been reporting on politics and European affairs for over 13 years, first from Westminster and then from Brussels since January 2003.

No more 'golden' Gordon Brown as UK faces worst recession for 18 years

Brussels has published economic forecasts for the European Union. They make especially grim reading for Britons – not least the prediction that the recession in 2009 will move from slowdown to become the first slump for 18 years.

Gordon Brown is taking Britain into worst recession since 1991

Forecast: Britain's economy will contact by at least one per cent in 2009 – the first slump, as opposed to previous slowdowns, since 1991 (when shrinkage was 1.367 per cent), so says the European Commission's economic forecast, autumn 2008.

But, as pessimistic EU forecasters warn, the recession might well be worse because the impact of a collapsing housing market and the over dependency of Britain's economy on the financial sector (all those dodgy, free loading banks).

"This scenario is subject to downside risks relating to the length and severity of the financial market problems which remain highly uncertain but are crucial in view of the scale of household indebtedness and the typically strong growth contribution of the UK's financial sector," says the Commission forecast.

Only two other EU countries will see more economic contraction, Estonia and Latvia. Even Ireland will do better as the euro zone stagnates but avoids the shock of the economy going into reverse.

Forecast: The unemployment rate will increase (labour force survey measure) 25 per cent over next year – up from an estimated 5.7 per cent this year to 7.1 per cent in 2009.

This will mean that 440,000 Britons will become unemployed over the next year, as the dole queue grows to 2.2 million people by 2009, numbers of jobless not seen since 1992.

Living standards will go down as the Britain's economic bubble bursts, private consumption is expected to contract 2.1 per cent next year.

Britons will have to tighten their belts as the Commission "envisages a marked fall in private consumption in 2009 and 2010 driven by more restrictive borrowing conditions and lower household wealth".

"The expected continuation of the downward correction in house prices will also weaken the collateral value of housing for secured borrowing, thus compounding the ongoing tightening for credit conditions," the Commission predicts.

"Private consumption will be dampened further as household spending responds to falling employment as well as to net falls in housing and financial wealth."

Forecast: By 2010, public borrowing as a percentage of the economy in Britain is expected to soar from 2.8 per cent last year to 6.5 per cent.

"Interest payments in 2010/11 are expected to increase by a third compared to 2007/8, mirroring a surge in public debt," the Commission said.

"The general government gross debt ratio is forecast to rise by more than 15 percentage points, to over 60 per cent by 20010/11, driven by primary deficits and government capital injections to the banking sector."

This is over twice the three per cent ceiling seen, under EU fiscal guidelines, as critical to stability and growth.

Once upon a time Gordon Brown, especially as chancellor, used to bore and boast, droning on and on (to anyone who would listen) about Britain's economic success and primly upbraiding euro-zone governments on the virtues of prudence and the merits of the British model.

No more. Commission's economic forecast has the following heading for the United Kingdom: "Budget deficit and debt spiral as economy contracts".

Contrast this pithy and grim assessment to France, "Stalling growth impacting on budget deficits". Or Germany, with the relatively, upbeat prediction: "Global downturn taking its toll".

Even Italy seems better off, with the heading, "Stagnating economic activity and further competitiveness losses".

The financial crisis, and looming recession, is showing us that Britain's much-vaunted economy (under both the Tories and Labour) is something of a smoke and mirrors act.

No more "golden" Gordon Brown. The coming recession means serious questions need to be asked over the structural weakness of the British economy.

Who will ask them? What is going to be done? This debate has vital importance to the counter-crisis and recession measures that need to taken quickly to avoid prolonged economic pain.

At this rate, in the absence of a proper substantive debate, let alone plan, the British public is going to pay the price while the bankers, accountants, economists and politicians who got us into this mess get off the hook.