Backers see ballot measures, Peskin as referendum on mayor

Mayor Lee gave a statement about his efforts to avoid another incident like the one that killed Katheryn Steinle at a press conference at Portsmouth Square Wednesday July 8, 2015. San Francisco Mayor Ed Lee spoke about the sanctuary program which allowed Juan Francisco Lopez-Sanchez to be free on the streets where he allegedly killed Katheryn Steinle recently.

Mayor Lee gave a statement about his efforts to avoid another...

Election day is still almost four months away, but here’s a wild prediction: When San Franciscans go to bed the night of Tuesday, Nov. 3, their newly elected mayor will be none other than Mayor Ed Lee.

Well, that was anticlimactic.

Sure, Lee officially has five challengers, but probably the only one you’ve ever heard of is Stuart Schuffman, a.k.a. BrokeAss Stuart, who bills himself on his website as a “Mother— Hustler.” While it could be argued that’s an important credential for a politician, we’re still calling this one for Lee.

But for those of you who aren’t convinced San Francisco has moved in the right direction under Lee — and who aren’t enamored of homes selling for $1 million over the asking price, $4,000 apartments and $18 cocktails — there’s a sliver of hope.

There are several ballot measures, and a crucial supervisorial race in District Three, that when taken together could be viewed as a referendum on Lee’s San Francisco, if not the mayor himself.

So when San Franciscans turn in on election night, they could also have severely curbed Airbnb and other home rental sites, banned the construction of anything but affordable housing in the Mission for 18 months, ensured public lands sold for development include more affordable housing, and created a fund to support longtime small businesses.

Oh, and they could also have sent former Supervisor Aaron Peskin back to City Hall, tipping the balance of power on the 11-member board toward the progressives and giving Lee a whip-smart, biting nemesis to deal with on a daily basis.

“I think people understand that having checks and balances is one of the underpinnings of having a healthy government, and I’m sensing that people feel like those checks and balances are missing,” Peskin said.

The buzz we’re hearing is that Peskin is favored to win against Lee’s appointee, Supervisor Julie Christensen — an outcome the mayor has privately let his supporters know is absolutely not OK.

By the way, Lee’s appointee to the Community College Board, Alex Randolph, also faces tough competition from Tom Temprano, the former president of the progressive Harvey Milk LGBT Democratic Club, and Wendy Aragon, who came close to winning a seat on the board last time around.

Lee took office during the end of the recession and worked to lure tech companies through the Twitter tax break and other efforts — and said his priorities were “jobs, jobs, jobs.” Now, unemployment is virtually nonexistent, and San Francisco’s businesses, development and real estate are booming.

Although Lee and his campaign staff say his top priority now is dealing with the resulting affordability crisis, not everybody thinks the mayor has acted quickly or decisively.

“Personally, he’s very popular, and he has real support from a broad spectrum of San Franciscans,” said political consultant Jim Ross. “But I think there are a lot of people in San Francisco across the political spectrum who want to have a conversation and want to weigh in on the future of San Francisco.”

But that discussion is very unlikely to happen in the mayor’s race — or, more accurately, mayor’s stroll.

Members of the San Francisco Human Services Network, an association of 80 nonprofits, as well as progressive political operatives have met a couple of times recently to figure out how to join forces and persuade voters to back all four progressive ballot measures as a sort of referendum on the sweeping changes in San Francisco under Lee’s leadership.

Longtime housing activist Calvin Welch, a key backer of the Airbnb ballot measure, said the four measures taken together at least allow the city to have an important debate and that they can serve as “the equivalent of the mayor’s race” in that regard.

“There’s a hunger for people for talking about these issues,” Welch said. “This administration not only buries issues under the rug, it then busies itself to stomp on the lumps.”

The groups will probably collaborate on joint mailers to voters, a unified social media presence and walking the streets to get their message out to voters, Welch said.

Roberto Hernandez, a Mission District native who backs the housing moratorium there, said he and his allies asked the mayor two years ago to consider declaring a state of emergency over displacement in the Mission and to temporarily order a halt on evictions.

“He said he would study it,” Hernandez said, adding he’s guessing the mayor is still studying it because they never got an answer. “He didn’t do anything about it.”

Christine Falvey, spokeswoman for Lee, said the mayor cares deeply about solving the city’s affordability crisis and will be putting a lot of work into passing a $310 million housing bond that will also be on the November ballot. He has spoken out against the Mission housing moratorium and has proposed less stringent regulations to deal with Airbnb. Falvey said he hasn’t yet studied the public lands measure or the fund for small businesses.

Supervisor Scott Wiener, who opposes the Airbnb, Mission moratorium and public lands measures, said he doesn’t think their backers will have success trying to bundle them as an antimayor referendum.

“People who don’t like Mayor Lee are looking for a way to be against the mayor, but the fact is the mayor doesn’t have an opponent for a reason,” Wiener said. “He’s doing a good job, and he’s popular.”

Political consultant Sam Lauter’s firm, BMWL, persuaded state Sen. Mark Leno not to challenge Lee because it didn’t think the mayor could be beaten. He said voters won’t be making their decisions on other races based on their feelings toward the mayor.

“People are nervous about the economy, people are nervous about Airbnb and the sharing economy and they’re nervous about development,” he said. “But they don’t turn to Mayor Lee and say, ‘You don’t care about this.’ They don’t blame him. People are separating the person and the concerns.”

Overall, Lee is proud of the San Francisco he has helped create. On the KQED radio show “Forum” a few days ago, he said it was misguided to criticize job creation and a thriving economy.

“Job creation is good for the city. ... I support a robust, vibrant economy,” he said. “All the things we’re doing for the city are good in the long term. They’re sustainable.”

Backers of four ballot measures are hoping to bundle them as a referendum against Mayor Ed Lee. Here’s a look at the measures.

Airbnb: This was done through a signature drive and hasn’t yet officially qualified for the ballot. It would cap all short-term rentals at 75 days a year and require the city to post a notice on each unit to signify it has been approved for short-term rentals.

Mission housing moratorium: Mission housing activists mounted a signature drive to get this on the ballot, though it hasn’t officially qualified yet. It would bar the city for 18 months from issuing permits for construction, demolition or conversion for housing projects with more than five units unless the project was 100 percent affordable housing.

Public lands:This was put on the ballot by supervisors John Avalos, David Campos, Jane Kim and Eric Mar. This would require that any piece of public land sold for development have at least 33 percent of its units dedicated for affordable housing.

Legacy business preservation: This was submitted by the same four progressive supervisors and would create a Legacy Business Historic Preservation Fund. The money would pay for grants to small, long-time businesses and the landlords that house them in hopes of preventing more historic businesses from shutting their doors.