KENTUCKY vs. UCONN POINT SPREAD:

KENTUCKY -2.5

UCONN +2.5, O/U 133

A #7 seed versus a #8 seed for the 2014 NCAA Tournament Title? Many will say that we have been building towards this moment for quite some time, as the NCAA Tournament has become the equivalent of a crap shoot in the past decade.

If you are looking for a technical betting trend edge tonight, favorites are 7-2-1 ATS in the past 10 NCAA title games. A betting trend that goes completely against the previous trend is the higher-seeded is on a 8-2 streak both SU and ATS in NCAA Tourney champ games.

2011 Final Four Betting Tips: Kentucky vs. UConn & Butler vs. VCU

We have now reached the Final Four of the 2011 NCAA Basketball Tournament, and in the immortal words of the Grateful Dead, “What a long strange trip it’s been!”

As you probably know, we have analyzed how each individual seed has done in every round of the tournament over the last 10 years, and we have already presented our findings though the Elite Eight. However, much of our research for the Final Four is moot since all four top seeds are out this year and the 2011 Final Four consists of a three seed, a four seed, an eight seed and an 11 seed!

Remember, this is after 39 of the 40 Final Four participants since the 2001 NCAA Tournament had been teams seeded fifth or higher, with only the 11th seeded George Mason Patriots crashing the party in 2006. Furthermore, there is guaranteed to be either an eight seed or an 11 seed in the National Championship Game this year after no team seeded higher than fifth reached the Finals the last 10 years.

Favorites Hitting 60% ATS L10 Years

Before taking a more detailed look at the two Final Four matchups, please note that the favorites have done quite well in the Final Four round over the last 10 years. The chalk has gone 12-8, 60.0 percent against the Final 4 odds in this round since 2001, and that includes both favorites covering in the Final Four round last season with Duke beating West Virginia handily and Butler beating Michigan State.

Kentucky Wildcats (4) vs. Connecticut Huskies (3): This matchup obviously has more data available for this round over the last 10 years than the other matchup does. A total of six #3 seeds have reached the Final Four since 2001, and they are 3-3 both straight up and against the spread. It should be noted however that only once was the #3 seed the higher seed like Connecticut is here, and that resulted in an easy covering win by the Florida Gators over the Cinderella George Mason Patriots in 2005.

Somewhat surprisingly, Kentucky is just the third fourth seed to have reached the Final Four in 11 years, and the two previous ones each got hammered while losing ATS, as Louisville lost by 15 points to top seeded Illinois in 2005 and LSU lost by 14 points to second seeded UCLA in 2006. Thus, all the seeding trends point to third seeded Connecticut in this contest, but that actually flies in the face of the general success the favorites have had in this round, as the lower seeded Wildcats are actually two-point favorites in this contest.

With the seeding trends conflicting with the overall favorite trend, we will defer to the Pomeroy Ratings and make our selection Kentucky -2.

VCU Rams (11) vs. Butler Bulldogs (8): After having only one team seeded higher than fifth reach the Final Four the last 10 years, we have two such higher seeds facing each other this year. As stated, earlier, 11th seeded George Mason got trounced by Florida in 2005. Well, at least you can say that 11 seeds are 0-1 and eighth seeds are 0-0, right? Also, Butler does fall under the successful favorite trend in this round.

Given the limited seeding data, that will have to do, so we are going with Butler -2½.