The 6 hurricanes so far in 2012 matches the average number in an entire season slightly less than half way through. NOAA’s updated hurricane forecast called for 5-8 hurricanes, 2 to 3 of which would be major (category 3 or higher). So far, there have been no major hurricanes.

While forecasting hurricane intensity is highly uncertain, Leslie has the potential to strengthen into a major hurricane. By Saturday, the National Hurricane Center predicts its peak winds will be 110 mph - which is right at the major hurricane threshold (category 3 storms have maximum winds of at least 111 mph).

We’ll have more on Leslie and the rest of the tropics tomorrow.

Jason is currently the Washington Post’s weather editor. A native Washingtonian, Jason has been a weather enthusiast since age 10.

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