SportsLine’s Top Weekend Picks: Baseball Looks Ahead

My numbers have the Blue Jays toppling the Orioles in 65 percent of simulations for their Friday matchup, making Toronto worth the price as a moderate home chalk. The Blue Jays have won four straight when starter Sam Gaviglio pitches on full rest, and are 5-1 in their past six Friday games. The Orioles are 1-10 when Dylan Bundy takes the mound against AL East opponents.

My numbers see the surging Reds beating the Pirates in two-thirds of simulations for their Friday meeting, offering a strong value on Cincinnati at a pick’em price. The Reds have won four straight starts by Tyler Mahle against losing teams and have won four consecutive series openers. The Pirates are 1-4 in their past five road games.

Danny Duffy has been a disaster at home, posting a 6.75 ERA while allowing a .291 batting average and eight homers in 37.1 innings. He’s facing a Twins team that’s won nine of 11 overall. Kyle Gibson thrives on the road, holding batters to a .197 average. Lay it.

When this Bay Area rivalry renews Friday, I’m seeing the Giants and Athletics plating eight runs or fewer to send this game Under the posted total. The Under is on an 8-1 run for the Giants in road games, while the Athletics are on a 3-0-1 Under run in inter-league contests.