The race is very stabil at this point. Days are withering away and the movement in poll's MoE is not anything. Obama is the next president if a national catastrophe ie. terrorist attack doesn't happen.
___________________________________________http://www.internationalpoliticstoday.com

Here's one sily little measure of stability: the title of this page on pollster.com is "us_obama_51_mccain_45_rasmusse_4" -- meaning it's the fourth time those numbers (51/45) have appeared in this poll. :-)

Adam, indeed. The numbers haven't moved a lot in a week now and it's quite suprising. We have to remember that people are usually made up their mind when October rolls around so maybe it's not so astonishing after all. If the numbers stay anything like this after the third debate then the race is over, completely over.
___________________________________________http://www.internationalpoliticstoday.com

Didn't Hotline poll just have Mccain down by 1 point like 4 days ago? That still would be a 7 point GAIN for Obama if you are hanging your hat on this poll. This pollster is obviously sipping the koolaid and all over the place. Regardless, if boombatty is excited about ONLY an 8 point lead for Obama, then he needs to get outside and play. I'll take an 8 point lead any day!

"The son of William F. Buckley has decided—shock!—to vote for a Democrat.
Let me be the latest conservative/libertarian/whatever to leap onto the Barack Obama bandwagon. It’s a good thing my dear old mum and pup are no longer alive. They’d cut off my allowance."

I'm generally not inclined to make predictions, but I would note it is certainly possible McCain's relative numbers could continue to decline. For example, possible proximate causes of such a decline could include further bad economic news, more self-inflicted wounds from the McCain/Palin campaign, a bandwagon effect, and so forth. Again, though, I'm not predicting that--just noting it is possible.

boomshack:
"Considering the electorate tends to move right the week of the election, Obama must make ZERO MISSTEPS between now and Nov 4 to win comfortably."

boom, you've suckled on hope! Good for you!

Meanwhile, unless I heard wrong on Meet the Press, James Knowles of the KKK infamy has come out endorsing Obama. Who'd have thunk it? We've lived to the day when a man convicted of a KKK murder would vote for an AA? Wow.

First, there is one more debate coming, and so far the debates seem to have helped Obama.

Second, it is likely there will be an ever-growing gap in terms of things like voter contacts and advertisements, which again could help Obama. And if the RNC ever decides to start shifting more resources to congressional races, that gap could widen even further.

boomshak: Obama hasn't really made any mistakes in the last few weeks... what makes you think he will now? Even if he made a small mistake, it pales in comparison to the mistakes McCain has made... and will likely continue to make. The Troopergate thing should really be the nail in the coffin. If Americans can really vote for someone that used her official power for a vendetta, then they're clearly voting for ideology alone.

Yep. That's 2 % *less* disadvantage for Obama, compared to the same university's poll about a month ago. Obviously you have failed to find that very same poll here, because it is already listed... /blogs/oh_mccain_48_obama_46_ucincinn.html

And by the way, except for Rasmussen that's the last remaining poll with a McCain majority in this must-win-state. No Republican managed to win the presidential election without winning Ohio since... uhm... I think some time in the *19th* century... if at all...

from the Toledo Blade :
"Historically, Ohio has had a critical role in presidential elections and appears poised once again to be a key in deciding who sits in the Oval Office for the next four years. This is an awesome responsibility, and one that cannot be taken lightly. For the future of Ohio and America, there is only one reasonable choice for president: Barack Obama."
or how about the dayton daily news:

"But in a time of change, Sen. Obama is the more promising leader. With his agile mind, often pitch-perfect judgment and preternatural calm and self-confidence, he seems built for the job of sorting through this thing, if anybody can.

The nation faces a choice that looks more and more like a choice between the future and the past. It has never been one to shrink from the future."

Yes, please cite the one poll that shows McInsane ahead in Ohio. Then also note that the Toledo Blade and the Dayton Daily News have both endorsed Obama. LOL. I am willing to bet the Cleveland Plain Dealer is next...I bet you are exhausted grasping at all of those straws!

Clearly the polls have not moved over the past week. Obama has just about the same lead he had seven days ago.

The past week has been notable for three things:

1. The attacks of the McCain camp centred on the Bill Ayres connection.

2. Wall Street falling off a cliff for day after day.

3. The Debate

Was there not affect from any of these things or did they simply cancel out?

Overall good news for Obama since keeping his lad and moving closer to the winning post must be good news for him. But I am sure that the McCain camp are relieved that the Wall Street Crash has not buried him even deeper.

Next week we might (and might not) have:

1. Further attacks

2. A rise on Wall Street? (or a further fall?)

3. Another debate.

Same as this week then with the possibility that 2 will go in the other direction. If it does then will McCain gain?

Overall I don't think this is yet a done deal, even at these levels in the polls since none of the Red Swing States, apart from Iowa, looks out of reach for McCain.

Why ar you folks obsessing about the national results, which are fine for Obama. He's killing McCain in the battleground states. The real question is the size of the "Democrat" majority in Congress to go along with an Obama presidency. Boomshak -- "Keep dream'n (as Pitbull with Lipstick would way)"

McCain is turning out to be another BOB Dole! I voted republican the last two elections, but I am now votin for Barack Obama. I think McCain made a terrible Vp pick, but a hot one. He had two chances to buck his party and he could not or would not do it. First he could have picked Lieberman. And he could have voted against this Bailout. Both times he failed. And plus he can not handle Barack Obama in debates. The race is over!

"I heard it on Meet the Press on NBC and posted it here. The transcripts of the show have not been posted yet on the NBC site, afaican tell."

The only place on the web I can find it after a search was a right-wing website. The guy was claiming it proves that racists and extremists of all flavors support Obama. So I'm a bit incredulous. It's interesting that the extreme right would be amongst the first to be revealing this...do they have folks regularly visiting Knowles in prison?

Who said it on Press The Meat?

However, if a good original source can be found I'd like to see Knowles' rationale.

@cinnamonape
I was the one who posted that, and I did hear it on Meet the Press. AFAIR, it was Ted Koppel, a guest on the show, who brought up this fact as it relates to the Discovery Channel show he is doing on the last lunching:

However, as I mentioned, I cannot seem to find any links on the net as of yet. It is only something I heard while watching NBC/clicking through the Su morning news/reading the pollster stuff. I am fairly certain of what I heard, but have no additional information yet.

You are correct the outcome in the individual states ultimately determines the election. However, because the polling in most states is somewhat sporadic, you can reasonably use the national polls as a crude but somewhat effective leading indicator. Of course, for a more scientific approach to this issue, you can look at 538.com.

You mention the GOTV effort not turning up anything in Ohio. Those days also included the last days to register voters before the election. They were less interested in getting voters out than registering them.

It seems that if McCain seems "bi-partisan," calling on his supporters to be respectful with Obama, McCain's numbers improve. The more he runs negative, the worst he does. McCain "set up" his "I'm-nicer-than-you-think" show on Thursday or Friday, and it seems people are gave him good reviews on Friday and Saturday night.

These results, based on Oct. 9-11 polling, represent a narrowing of Obama's lead over McCain. Obama led by double-digits for three consecutive days last week, but now his advantage is down to seven percentage points. Obama has led in each of the last three individual days' polling, but by less than double-digits each day, suggesting that the race is, in fact, tightening.
--------------------------------------

Boom, go for it! Find solace in this.

My take, there is no way Obama has a 11 point lead. His lead is likely between 7-9 lead, and all the stats still point this.

Likely voter information:

Likely Voter Estimates for Gallup...

Obama's current advantage is slightly less when estimating the preferences of likely voters, which Gallup will begin reporting on a regular basis through the election. Gallup is providing two likely voter estimates to take into account different turnout scenarios.

The first likely voter model is based on Gallup's traditional likely voter assumptions, which determine respondents' likelihood to vote based on how they answer questions about their current voting intention and past voting behavior. According to this model, Obama's advantage over McCain is 50% to 46% in Oct. 9-11 tracking data.

The second likely voter estimate is a variation on the traditional model, but is only based on respondents' current voting intention. This model would take into account increased voter registration this year and possibly higher turnout among groups that are traditionally less likely to vote, such as young adults and racial minorities (Gallup will continue to monitor and report on turnout indicators by subgroup between through the election). According to this second likely voter model, Obama has a 51% to 45% lead over McCain. -- Jeff Jones

Well maybe Koppel interviewed Knowles in prison, as part of his series.

Except as a statement of remorse (and hopefully as part of a confession of his role) I wouldn't put much more into it than a personal epiphany. Sadly, prisons overall are one of the most probable proliferators of racism we have in this country.

Obama polls worse on the weekends. Gallup this Sunday O 50% M 43% / Last Sunday O 50% M 43% / Two Sundays ago O 50% M 42%. Relax people it is a 6-8 point lead Nationally and that is including getting beat by around 30% in several red states.

By the way, Gallup is almost exactly where it was a week ago, which is almost exactly where it was two weeks ago. So I am tempted to suggest the big picture with respect to Gallup is stability more than anything else.

Data shows what a weak candidate Obama is. With all the horrendous economic news Obama should have had this election wrapped up a long time ago. Yet McCain keeps hanging in there. The news can't get any better for Obama so the movement should continue McCain's way the rest of the way. All he needs to do is pick up a couple of points each week and have a little good news financially and look out.

I know that this year, the traditional "likely voter" model is not going to hold, starting with African Americans. But I think that it is relevant that even by using the most "Republican-friendly" model, Obama is ahead and averaging the 50% watermark. In my opinion, the traditional "likely voter" model is the worst case scenario for Obama, and he still is at 50%. He support doesn't change.

Unless John McCain has a good polling day tonight I am expecting the margin on Rasmussen to go up tomorrow.

I was looking the net favorability numbers for him on Rasmussen and noticed that he had his 2 worst numbers on consecutive days ever on Rasmussen in the last 2 nights of polling (+4 and +5 respectively). He had his best numbers on consecutive days in the recent past on Wednesday and Thursday nights (+9 and +8 respectively). Since both those days will have fallen off the rolling average the margin between him and Obama will most probably widen.

The soundbite in question comes up roughly midway through the segment. I found it helpful to pause the video and read the transcript because the voice is badly distorted to protect JK id (witness protection program).

I really could not care less what this man has to say, except that it paints an amazing and truly incredible turnaround in arguably one of the most extremist, fringe elements in recent American history.

Unless John McCain has a good polling day tonight I am expecting the margin on Rasmussen to go up tomorrow.

I was looking the net favorability numbers for him on Rasmussen and noticed that he had his 2 worst numbers on consecutive days ever on Rasmussen in the last 2 nights of polling (+4 and +5 respectively). He had his best numbers on consecutive days in the recent past on Wednesday and Thursday nights (+9 and +8 respectively). Since both those days will have fallen off the rolling average the margin between him and Obama will most probably widen.

Aggregated weighted results for the week (now including today) on the daily trackers show that both candidates have each fluctuated within bands of 1%, while the spread has moved within a 1.5% band. So if we discard the noise, the signal is very stable.

BTW Pazienza, these polls are pretty much stuck where they have been for months now. The only deviation was a week after the RNC. Then things return back to normal and except for Obama taking a few points larger lead, everything is stuck. Sorry man.

The only reason McShame has around 43% is because of the staunch repub base and a bunch of racist out there. Which isn't gonna get it done.

@Pazienza.
Not sure what you mean by "Obama should have had this election wrapped up a long time ago."

No matter how you slice it, the election is not going to happen until Nov. 4. All we have until then are the polls.

And the national poll trends thus far have shown Obama blowing McCain away, up to and including by double digits. Point one.

Point two, the state polls show McCain's slide continuing, as more and more battle states turn blue, none have turned red. Point two b) - more and more previously red Bush states have turned either blue or into toss up. That list now includes WV, VA, NC and soon to join them MO and GA.

How much of a blow out do you want?

"Yet McCain keeps hanging in there..."

This was exactly Hillary battle cry. Look where she is now. McCain is actually channeling May 2008 Hillary: "my friends, the pundits have counted us out before...". Well, my friends, that is what Hillary was saying too when faced with insurmountable numbers.

And guess what? The pundits turned out to be right. When they said she was mathematically eliminated, she actually WAS mathematically eliminated.

Now McCain is facing similar insurmountable odds, acc. to all the polls. He's done a remarkable job proving the pundits (read: polls) wrong by dropping another point or two in same polls and going negative with character attacks.

If you think that the economy is going to turn into sunshine and roses any time soon, a la "The news can't get any better for Obama so the movement should continue McCain's way the rest of the way", you better check with our buddy boomshack, who has been chanting that mantra for about a month now.

Yeah ... you are independent indeed ... You are 3 times an idiot now .. twice by voting for Bush and now a third time by voting for Obama ..

Your dems are both racists and sexists.. "

Dude, seriously, give it up. You can pretend like you never propped up and voted for Bush the failure, that still doesn't mean it isn't a bunch of BS. And I would definately not be questioning another persons intelligence if I were you, considering all the "brilliant" and "insightful" things you have posted on here.

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