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Sunday, February 27, 2011

I've given my preferred ranking for the 10 Best Picture nominees, but I'm getting my prediction for the Oscars themselves in under the wire. I predict that The King's Speech will win 6-8 awards including Best Picture, Best Actor (Colin Firth), Best Screenplay (David Seidler) and yes, even Best Director (Tom Hooper). That will be a close race of course.

Many people believe that David Fincher's win at the BAFTA Awards meant that the momentum had swung his way. I don't believe that at all. There was no momentum swing. Rather, it's a very close race that was a coin-toss and still is. But I think that Tom Hooper's accomplishment is greater and the Academy will recognize that. It's hypocritical for critics to complain that the Academy doesn't always reward the best, yet they feel that Fincher is "owed" an Oscar for something even he doesn't consider to be his greatest work.

I see Inception taking three technical categories, and The Social Network taking Adapted Screenplay and Editing.

True Grit may get shut out entirely, but it should capture at least Cinematography and maybe Best Supporting Actress.
Natalie Portman will win Best Supporting Actress for Black Swan, but that will be all that film gets.

Toy Story 3 will no doubt take the Animation prize, but should also capture Best Song in a weak field. I'm cheering on the hometown favourite Incendies for Foreign Language Film. It was my top film of 2010.

I think Inside Job will win for Documentary. It and not The Social Network is the film that is the most relevant and that captures the zeitgeist of our times. Waste Land is also a strong possibility. But if Exit Through the Gift Shop wins, it will have successfully made fools of both the art world and the cinema world in one fell swoop.

We'll know soon enough.
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My 2011 Oscar predictions

BEST PICTUREThe King's Speech
I'd also be fine with Black Swan, Inception or 127 Hours winning.

BEST DIRECTOR
Tom Hooper
Or Darren Aronofsky, but this is a strong category. Really though, it's a toss-up between Hooper and Fincher.

BEST ACTOR
Colin Firth
Another strong category, but this one is a slam-dunk for Firth.

BEST ACTRESS
Natalie Portman
Another really strong category. This one is Portman's to lose, but Annette Bening may come close.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christian Bale
All the acting categories are solid this year, and the Supporting Actor categories are often unpredictable. Christian Bale is the front-runner, but any would be worthy.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Helena Bonham Carter
This is Melissa Leo's to lose, but it'll be close with Hailee Steinfeld and Helena Bonham Carter poised to pull off an upset. I'll go out on a limb and say Carter.

BEST DOCUMENTARYInside Job
Possibly Waste Land will take this. If Exit Through the Gift Shop wins, it will have successfully made fools of both the art world and the cinema world in one fell swoop.

BEST ANIMATED FEATUREToy Story 3
It's a Best Picture nominee, so it's a lock. It's my least favourite of the nominees, though. I prefer The Illusionist first, then How to Train Your Dragon second.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAYThe King's SpeechInception has an outside chance, but unlikely. The King's Speech made a rousing story out of seemingly uninteresting material: a royal with a stutter.