March 19, 2009

The Guardian reports that "A perfect storm could hit the planet by 2030." The article states that "Food, water and energy shortages will unleash public unrest and international conflict according to Professor John Beddington. Shortages could lead to cross-border conflicts and mass migration and this will potentially come to a head in 2030. Follow the link to find out more.

January 08, 2009

Just about a month ago I wrote about an H5N1 outbreak in poultry in Hong Kong. Further news in the last few days has sadly reported that a nineteen year old woman who contracted H5N1 probably from handling and preparing live/freshly slaughtered ducks has recently died in Beijing. Follow the link to read the full article.

January 01, 2009

Oxford Economics have produced a fascinating, and concerning, report on the estimated global gross domestic product (GDP) for 2009/2010. It gives a timeline for the current credit crunch and the events to date.

The researchers estimate the final losses of the banking sector are around US$1.9 trillion, equivalent to about 6.5% of US and European GDP. The response over recent months has been to implement a series of bank rescue packages which total almost US$3 trillion. The report catalogues these:

"In the US the US$700bn Paulson Plan started with US$250 billion recapitalisation of the nine largest banks. In Europe over €1 trillion has been made available in the Eurozone to guarantee interbank lending with another €200bn for recapitalisation of banks. The UK bailout involves nationalising or part-nationalising leading banks at a cost of £50bn, with additional funding of as much as £325bn available in the form of loans and guarantees."

A further monetary measure has been to reduce interest rates which is good for borrowers but not for investors. In the US interest rates are 0 - 0.25%; Japan 0.1%, UK 2% and the ECB has cut rates to 2.5%. It is possible that if inflation increases rates will be further cut where possible. However this does not mean that businesses or individuals can obtain finance at those rates. The researchers conclude that lower interest rates usually take some 12-18 months to have an impact so other measures will also need to be taken.

World GDP is estimated to contract by 0.4% in 2009. Many countries have announced, or are considering, measures to increase their GDP - China by 14%; US by 7%; Japan 4.5% and Europe around 1.5%.

The report lists the following as key factors that will impact on monetary policy:

Weaker consumer spending - the report forecasts a reduction in personal spedning in 2009 of 1.2% in the Eurozone, 1.3% in the US and 2.3% in the UK.

Tougher economic environment for businesses - caused by reducing consumer demand and the impact of interest rates and borrowing costs.

Government finances - budget deficits and increased public debt will be a key issue as governments seek to spend their way out of recession and meet the financial needs of growing unemployment and the loss of tax income.

Lower inflation and interest rates - driven by a global slow down and lower commodity prices. Deflation is possible in some economies.

Exchange rates - will only help UK exporters when other economies seek to buy our products - if consumer spending is reduced in those countries our exports will also be reduced.

Weaker world trade - forecast to contract by around 1% in 2009 - reinforcing point 5 -

Emerging markets slowdown - many emerging economies have been hit by the issues already described and by external capital withdrawal. The IMF are seeking to fund some countries that have seen a severe impact from capital withdrawal including Hungary, Ukraine, Pakistan.

The report concludes that the economies of the US, the Eurozone, Japan and the UK are forecast to contract by around 2% in 2009. China is forecast to grow by about 7% in 2009, its lowest since 1990, India about 5% and Russia will slow dramatically from around 6% this year to little over 1%. Latin America is expected to grow by only about 1% in 2009 . The economies are forecast to improve in 2010 and move into positive growth for all regions.

December 28, 2008

I haven't written too much about my thoughts on the economic downturn but there have been some alarming articles in the last week or so that have caught my eye that are worthy of note.

The Independent reported that the State of California may run out of money by February. The article states that "John Chiang, the state controller, admitted ... that a spiralling budget crisis, which has left California spending billions of dollars more each month than it can raise in taxes, will see his coffers run dry some time in mid-February". The adminstration faces a stark choice either to cut spending or to raise taxes. If it can borrow money in the short term this choice still has to be made.

Woolworths stores are starting to close with 27,000 people losing their jobs .. not to mention Zavii, MFI and probably more to follow - a significant human imprint. the first of the stores opened on 5th November 1909 and the store has been part of my life. It will be sad to see Woolworths go. The Telegraph reports that at one point a Woolworths store was opening in the UK every SEVENTEEN DAYS!

My father worked for FW Woolworths as it was in the 1960s - starting at the bottom (in the storeroom in his late teens) and working his way up to store manager. He saw the writing on the wall though twenty-five years ago. In 1982 the UK retail operation came under British ownership for the first time and this provided the incentive for him to start his own business and leave the organisation. It is sad to see the 807 stores closing and I feel will have more of an impact in rural areas where there is little alternative to the diverse Woolworths stores.

The Independent carried a worrying article that suggested that the UK economy in 2009 may "contract at its fastest pace since the 1940s." The report states that "The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) expects the UK’s gross domestic product to decline by 2.9 per cent in real terms over the next year, the biggest annual fall since 1946, when the country faced mass de-mobilisation after the Second World War. Business investment – forecast to collapse by more than 15 per cent in 2009 – is pegged to pose the biggest risk to the economy while household expenditure is expected to fall by 1.8 per cent in the New Year.

The government’s statisticians publish a consistent series of gross domestic product estimates back only to 1948. The worst year on these records was 1980, where output was 2.1 per cent lower than the preceding year.”

The Independent also reports that after the £65 billion given to banks in the UK this year will need to be followed by a further £60 billion in 2009.

This all makes quite sobering reading, on topics that I will continue to follow in 2009.

November 26, 2008

The Guardian reports this startling fact. The article continues that "Nearly all hospitals are failing to meet hygiene and cleanliness standards set by the government to prevent superbug outbreaks, inspectors say today. Most of the breaches are not serious, but the Healthcare Commission warns that only consistent and comprehensive controls in all NHS trusts will ensure that infection rates for MRSA, Clostridium difficile and other hospital-acquired infections continue to fall".

Although many of the hygiene issues are not deemed serious this is a cause for concern however "At three out of the 51 trusts (around a third of the total) where unannounced spot checks took place, inspectors found serious breaches of the government's hygiene code". Only five trusts were found to comply.

November 11, 2008

One of the articles that I read over the weekend that filled me with concern was the article in the Guardian about the level of care at Birmingham Children's Hospital. Do check it out. When I have taken my children to hospital whilst being their advocate I have had to trust the judgments of the medical staff and that is a huge level of trust because your children are truly precious.

I can't rewrite the whole article but as a parent to read the concerns expressed in the report collated by other doctors is alarming. J.F Kennedy is reputed to have said that "Children are the world's most valuable resource and its best hope for the future." How a society values its children marks that society.

October 25, 2008

The Guardian reports that there has been a sharp drop in the number of cases of Clostridium Difficile in England. The article states that "There
were 8,683 cases recorded in patients aged over 65 between April and
June - a decrease of 18% compared with the previous quarter between
January and March, according to the agency that monitors infectious
diseases. The Health Protection Agency (HPA) added that, compared
with the same period last year, the number of cases had declined by
38%, from 13,924 cases."

October 02, 2008

The Guardian reports that the British economy has failed to grow in the second quarter of the year with a balance of payments deficit of nearly £11bn. The article states that "Most economists, though, think the economy has contracted in the current three months and will do so again in the final quarter of the year, meeting the technical definition of a recession" and concludes that GDP is expected to contract by 0.2% in 2009, after growing by just 1.1% in 2008.

According to the Guardian the UK Manufacturing sector has shrunk in output at the fastest rate for 17 years when records began.

September 21, 2008

ISO 9001:2000 is due to be updated later this year. The British
Standards Institute (BSI) suggests that there will probably be little
impact. Organisations that are certified to ISO 9001:2000 will be given
twelve months to make any changes.

However the BSI reports that
ISO 9004 may undergo a number of changes. The provisional title is
"Managing for sustainable success – a quality management approach."
They state that:

Due to the
significant changes this standard will no longer be updated at the same
time as ISO 9001 and its planned publication is the end of 2009. In the
meantime, until the publication of this version, the current ISO
9004:2000 will remain alongside ISO 9001:2000 and the subsequent ISO
9001:2008 version until the 2009 version is published, when the 2000
version will be withdrawn.