Denver’s #2 pick dilemma - prime or choice?

Doc BearMar 28, 2011 12:00 PM

As the draft preparations wind their way down, most people believe that Denver is going to use the second pick in the draft on a defensive tackle and a lot of pixels have been dedicated to breaking down the choice that they face. John Elway has emphasized that Denver has to ‘hit’ on their higher picks this year. It’s always important, but as new Broncos head coach John Fox has noted, you hope that you won’t be in the #2 position again - so you'd best take full advantage of it. That could, in theory, lead Denver to choose the player who’s safer in the short term, ensuring that the team doesn’t find itself stuck in a JaMarcus Tussle: paying out big money for a player who is simultaneously very expensive and less than useful on the field, and/or in trouble off of it. The choice, if they go with a DT, appears to be between the 6’3”, 319 lb Marcell Dareus of Alabama and Auburn's 6’4”, 297 lb Nick Fairley. Fans, pundits and commentators have gone back and forth over the issue until it’s nearly run into the ground, but there’s been a tendency to talk about who is more NFL ready rather than who fits Denver’s needs the most expediently. I’ve followed the conversation with avid interest, watched what film I could lay my hands on, and I’ve also come to a conclusion.

I’d suggest taking an open-minded look at Russ Lande's commentary on the debate: Lande has nothing against Dareus, but he gives a solid analysis of why Fairley is a better choice for Denver. There’s one thing that I thought was absolutely essential in his note here and it deals with the rumors that Fairley takes plays off or fails to give full effort on every down. I filled up a hard drive with college games, and I watched Fairley carefully, fully willing to see and document the way that he handled that issue, either way. I couldn’t find those plays that he was taking off and, as it turns out, neither could Lande. Neither has Ted Bartlett, for that matter. But Ted and I don’t have access to teammates, coaches or trainers (a trainer can tell you if the player tends to overstate their injuries, something that the coaches may not even be up on). Lande does, and he couldn’t find anyone who thought that Fairley did anything but give full effort and competitiveness to every down. Here’s what Lande had to say:

Though Dareus is more pro-ready, a number of scouts have told me their teams rate Fairley as a better prospect. Fairley has received a lot of negative publicity for taking plays off, but we didn’t see evidence of it on film. We spoke to a number of sources and every one of them said that he plays with excellent competitiveness and intensity on every snap. Although Fairley is young and may lack maturity, our sources say that he’s a good kid who won’t get into trouble. Every source we spoke to said that if the team he goes to has some veterans who can help mentor him, he will develop into a star in a few seasons. Based on pure talent, Fairley is clearly a level above Dareus.

What Lande states matches with what I have been able to see when I pull up an Auburn game - I didn’t have all the Auburn games, and it’s possible that I have missed a few downs that Fairley slacked on. Based on what I saw, though, Fairley doesn’t take plays off that I could find. He appeared to play and play hard, from whistle to whistle. This seems to be a media rumor that deserves to have heads of garlic stuffed in its mouth and a stake driven through its heart, because it keeps coming back and I keep not finding any specifics that fit. If Fairley is taking plays off, they weren’t apparent on the games that I watched.

I don’t know how Fairley and Dareus interview, and that’s a factor that may sway coaches, too. This could be where his purported immaturity come out - I’ve heard that rumor too - and if so, that’s fine. Again, this is a matter of access, and Denver isn’t going to tip its hand by saying how they really feel right now. What I can tell you is that between the two, Fairley is one of the few truly dominant players in this draft, and I believe that he has the higher upside. I like Dareus, and I don’t think that he’d be a bad pick, but I don’t think that he’s the same level of opportunity for the Broncos. I didn’t come to this conclusion easily - I’ve tried to read everything that compares the two, or just gives good info on either player and I’ve watched film because in the end, it’s how they play that you’re drafting for.

The concern here appears to be one of deferred gains - Dareus is probably more pro-ready, he unquestionably anchors better and has the lower body base of an elite run-stuffer - in other words, he’s a near-perfect nose tackle in a 4-3 and has the skill to play undertackle. As far as Denver and the draft go, however, it’s worth considering which position the Broncos are trying to fill. Do they want a bigger body who can stuff the run the way Dareus can? Sure they do. He could be an excellent addition to the line, but one of the things that seems to stay the same in the NFL is that teams with truly elite talent tend to keep winning, and often win right on through January. The Broncos have more need of an elite undertackle, a player who can slice, dice and jackhammer his way to the QB, consistently applying pressure, and that’s really not Dareus’ game. He’s more of a 4-3 NT, capable of two-gap play and a big body with good talent who can hold the point of attack and push the pile back, but he isn’t going to find the QB that often.

There is a weakness in Fairley’s game: The fears of him being too light are overblown (he’ll play between 295 and 300 lb), but it’s not unreasonable to say that he plays too high at times, and when he does, he can be pushed back and to the side. However, a couple of years under Broncos strength and conditioning coach Rich Tuten’s tuition, coupled with defensive line coach Wayne Nunnely’s teaching of proper technique can solve that issue. The question is, in three years, which player is likely to do more for your team?

Dareus doesn’t seem to be on the same level as Fairley when it comes to backfield penetration - and that’s an area in which Denver could be justifiably labeled as a federally mandated cleanup site. Dareus isn’t going to be able to be taught to do what Fairley can do - slash inside and reach the QB for a hurry or even a sack (I like sacks and they’re obviously important - I just don’t see them as the Holy Grail that many other do. Consistent pressure means consistent hurries, and hurries, in turn, mean incompletions and turnovers). I see Fairley as always having an advantage there. Dareus will push the pile - Fairley will knife past it. Both have advantages, but Fairley’s is less common.

In other words, Fairley can be ‘coached up’ to improve his anchoring and keep his pad levels low, and when he does he can be nearly as much of a run-stopper as Dareus, even though he’ll lack Dareus’ bulk. Denver also has Kevin Vickerson at nose, and they just gave him a new two-year deal - he’s a solid NT. On the other hand, Dareus is a ‘safer’ pick (that’s a strange term, really - I don’t see Fairley as ‘unsafe’, which would be the alternative), but in three years, and perhaps sooner, I think that Fairley will be outplaying him consistently. Which do you go for? Player A, who has more of an NFL-ready game but will never be at the same level as Player B, or Player B, who can be coached to do what player A can, but who brings to the table a level of skill that Player A just won’t have? How much credence do you give the rumors that Fairley is immature and lacks the kind of work ethic that the NFL requires? That’s very much the question that Denver is facing if they go with either Fairley or Dareus, and it’s not an easy question to answer.

If that turns out to be the choice they’re down to, I hope that they look at the longer term and take Fairley. They can assign a couple of veterans, informally (and that’s where I still think that the recently released lineman Justin Bannan would have been more than worth the money, roster bonus or not) to keep an eye on him. Lots of rookies get into trouble not just because they move to a new city with a college-life approach and they suddenly have money to burn, but because they get to the new city, don’t know anyone and tend to hang out with their hangers on; people who do them no good, but who prey on their egos and wallets and act as their ‘entourage’. Such people are often parasites, and they’ve killed a lot of good players’ careers.

You counter that by making sure that solid veterans are talking to the youngsters from Day 1, showing them how to be a professional, how to care for their bodies at the NFL level; working out with them, showing them how to study in the film room and what to do off the job that won’t get them into trouble. LB Wesley Woodyard has talked about how former Denver teammate Andra Davis made his life much easier through mentoring and it’s a common theme among successful players. S David Bruton was picked out by the other Notre Dame veterans, and he’s also got a son to raise, which helps. But in both cases, someone showed them how to handle life in Denver - from finding a guy to fix the garage door to having someone to spend time with who will help keep the younger guy on the straight and narrow.

Fairley also has won over commentators like Pat Kirwan, who has access that I can only dream of. Kirwan tells a story of listening to Fairley talk about being down at halftime against Alabama, and how while the coaches were huddling in a side room, first Cam Newton and then Fairley himself talked to the team about what had to happen to win that game (they succeeded). That’s something that Fairley will be asked to do in a few years for an NFL team - to show leadership, to demonstrate it on the field and to talk to the defensive players and fire them up for the contest.

Which player is so elite that the others will look to him naturally in three years? Honestly - it’s probably going to be Fairley. That’s not a knock on Dareus, who I believe will be a top player, but the line in the NFL between top and elite can be as wide as the Continental Divide itself. If Denver wants to really become an elite team, they are going to need elite players. Not just top players - elite ones. They will need the kind of players who create mismatches consistently and who give offensive coordinators nightmares. It’s not a knock on Dareus to say that Fairley will be that kind of player. Dareus is a different body type and a different kind of player. Denver has a decent nose tackle in Vickerson and a gaping hole at undertackle, and Fairley is the best undertackle in this year’s draft by quite a bit. As I’m trying to set out in the rest of my pre-draft writing, there are options at both in later rounds, but the dropoff after Fairley is substantial.

Why, then, is Dareus such a popular pick in the mock drafts? Easy. Under Nick Saban, he’s been exposed to an NFL-style of play. He’s been a rock in the middle, has a great work ethic and consistently performs at a high level. There are no questions about his motor or his maturity. He’s scheme-flexible, which won’t matter much since Denver will be moving to a real 4-3; and while it’s great to be able to move him somewhat, he’s likely to be placed at NT or UT and left there most of the time. Like all NFL 4-3 DTs, he’ll be moved at certain times to create mismatches, to set up an overload blitz or to accomplish any of several specific goals on different plays. But for all the things that I love about this guy - and believe me, there’s a lot of them - I don’t see him having the ceiling that Fairley has. Rich McKay of Atlanta once noted that with the right undertackle, you can play almost anyone at the nose. Much as I consider the nose position essential, of the two, NTs are easier to find. Elite undertackles don’t come around often.

Back when B.J. Raji entered the draft in 2009, there was a lot of concern around him. He’d been accused of taking plays off, he had weight issues, he’d tested positive for cannabis and yet somehow he’s turned into exactly what Green Bay saw when they looked at him - an big, elite DL player who can be moved anywhere along the 3-4 line that Dom Capers loves. Raji was the perfect choice for that team at that moment, and Green Bay knew it. Denver should do the same.

Von Miller

If what Denver wants is to go with a 'safer' pick, I’d hope that they abandon the DT question altogether and go with Texas A&M linebacker Von Miller. At 6’3” and up to 246 lb, Miller is one of a very few choices in this year’s draft that I doubt can go wrong and he fully fits - nearly defines - the term ‘elite’. He’s never had a character problem, he’s durable (he played through an ankle injury in 2010 and doesn’t mind playing with pain), and his skill level is absolutely elite for the kind of smaller, faster (4.49-second 40 at his Pro Day) and highly disruptive linebacker that coach Fox has said that he wants. Denver also has a gaping hole at strongside linebacker. They also have one at Mike, but they can fill it in with some current options (Joe Mays, D.J. Williams, or the aforementioned Woodyard) or go to free agency for that. There will still be solid DTs, if not elite ones, in the second round. Actually, that’s not fully true - Oregon State's Stephen Paea may end up being elite at NT, and Marvin Austin out of North Carolina could be elite at either if he gets his head on right. Both may be available in the second round when Denver picks at #36; one or the other is almost sure to be. Each year, in the final decisions of the draft, teams usually go for more QBs and OTs than the pundits project. That’s fine - it helps out Denver, and may lead to a draft day trade-down.

Miller is talented in coverage, a necessary skill that is in short supply in Denver’s linebacking corps. He’s also an exceptional rush linebacker who will immediately help the Broncos' pass rush, not in collapsing the pocket, but in knifing through it to get the hurry or the sack. Miller just about destroyed everyone that they put up against him in the Senior Bowl. Pair him with DE Robert Ayers on the strongside and let Ayers occupy the OT (and, often, the TE or RG) while Miller handles the seek-and-destroy missions on the QB. Miller may struggle to cover the TE at first due to size differences, but I wouldn’t count him out even there. His quickness will permit him to jump routes, his hands will let him deflect the pass, and his tackling skills are excellent if there is a completion.

Patrick Peterson

Will LSU's Patrick Peterson be elite as a cornerback? It’s very possible, even likely. He’s got all the tools, but at 6’0” and 218 lb. he’s big for a cornerback (although at 4.32, he’s very fast) and given his weight, he may make the transition to safety sooner rather than later. Is the #2 pick too high for a tweener player with elite talent? In this case, I think that it is for one reason - Denver just has bigger problems. With Fox and new defensive coordinator Dennis Allen running the show, they are probably going to be playing a zone-based defense, so with Champ locked up for a few years, the Broncos can start looking for zone corners who match their team schematically. On a play-to-play basis, Denver has a bigger problem with the middle of the DL than they do at cornerback, where they are set for this year and have some talented youngsters to develop, most of whom should stay out of prison for the year.

Speaking of, Perrish Cox should improve if he can play. Meanwhile, fellow second-year player Syd’Quan Thompson has shown flashes of real skill as a nickel corner, and in this league, you’re in nickel far more often than not. Cassius Vaughn showed that he can return kicks, although there won’t be a ton to return given the new rules regarding kickoffs. Vaughn also showed some flashes of real skill as a cornerback, and at 5’11 and 193 lbs, he’s got the length that you like to see. Add to that his 4.4 speed (his low end was 4.36, so this guy’s very fast) and you’ve got a player who’s likely to be worth developing. I don’t have a clue as to what’s going to happen with Nate Jones or Andre' Goodman - Goodman’s tackling issues may become more of a concern with the move to zone, and Jones has always been a versatile spare body who can play some corner and some safety, but he excels at neither. Peterson will make some team very happy, but it’s very unlikely to be Denver.

Conclusion

When you look at the issue historically, it’s generally been easier to find top nose tackle material than it is to find elite undertackles. When people talk about the question of Dareus vs. Fairley, the conversation often lacks a recognition that the two players are likely to play different positions. Fairley’s play reminds me of Warren Sapp - Sapp also tended to play high, especially later in his career. He was nearly unstoppable when he kept his pad level low, and that’s about what I see in Fairley. Fairley isn’t at Sapp’s level yet, and I don’t think that he’s “this year’s …”, but there are similarities in their play. Sapp had some maturity issues when he came out, but it didn’t stop Tampa Bay from taking him, and it shouldn’t stop Denver from taking Fairley.

For those of you who prefer Dareus to Fairley, you’ll be getting equal time shortly, since I’m putting togeter Talegating pieces on both players and I’ll post one on Dareus soon. I think that Fairley is the better pick and I’ve said why, but I’ve also been a fan of Dareus for the past several months. Head to head, and taking Denver’s specific needs into account, I’d take Fairley, but they’re both solid players who would contribute quickly to the Broncos' defense. Ranked in order, I’d put it as a tie between Fairley and Miller at the top - both are elite players in their own right, but Miller is probably more NFL-ready. Dareus will be a solid player, even a top player, but he doesn’t have the kind of upside that Fairley or Miller does. Peterson isn’t the right player at the right time - it’s as easy as that. He’s also an elite talent, but the other two at that level fill roles that Denver needs more immediately.

Isn’t it draft day yet? Go Broncos!

Learn to laugh at yourself. You will be ceaselessly amused. - Sri Gary Olsen

You can reach Doc at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) or follow him on Twitter @alloverfatman

Related

Ted discusses the pass rush performance of the Broncos DTs, and begins thinking about the 2013 Draft

My sentiments exactly HT&#8230

Posted by bfree2bronc on 2011-04-01 00:00:12

Re: bfree2bronc&#8217s post.

It&#8217s clear that Dareus has experienced a post-combine bump. What I think we all need to remember is that BPA rankings are not the sole draft consideration. If it were then Patrick Peterson would be our choice (probably). Peterson, a CB and possible Safety, isn&#8217t a wise choice (although he may still be a good one) simply because CB isn&#8217t a high impact position and he also shows flaws on film. He didn&#8217t show himself as a shutdown CB against top competition.

So we agree. All of the possible likely picks are bunched tightly this year and it&#8217s not like last year, in which Suh stood out as a no-brainer. Curiously, I seem to remember McCoy as Mayock&#8217s highest ranked DL, which goes to show that picks are never without some controversy.

Dareus impressed in his combine performance (as did Fairley, but not as much), but it&#8217s unwise to put a disproportionate weight on this. Fairley&#8217s greatest attribute is not his better chance of becoming a star but his position&#8212as a UT. Dareus and Fairley are not equal in this regard. UT is an extremely important position for a 3-4 and they&#8217re hard to find.

I like Miller more than anyone else at this point but it&#8217s very hard to justify (but not impossible) taking a LB at #2. Miller is as clean as anyone (although Peterson might be moreso) but he still plays a position that&#8217s not as &#8216high impact.&#8217

I don&#8217t see a clear &#8220dominant&#8221 choice for our selection. My hope is that one of the other top ten teams trades with us in order to obtain their choice at QB. Any of the prospects under consideration would be a suitable pick and extra pick(s) we&#8217d obtain would certainly help. I wish I could get worked up over the choice at #2 but there&#8217s so much value in the alternative top ten choices that deferring on the #2 choice and letting the market decide for us seems to be a more optimal choice. And we seem to agree here, too.

Posted by colinski on 2011-03-31 22:50:42

I&#8217ve beat the drum on this since the National Championship game and all I get is beat up for it&#8230Not sure if the intellect is as profound over at MHR as it was when I first started. Seems as though there are too many made up minds about their special interests (Dareus) and refuse for whatever reason to think this thing through logically. Casserly on NFL network yesterday evening stated that he drafted Champ Bailey in 99 at #7 and he was an elite cornerback at the time. Patrick Peterson is not the player that Champ was at that time, at least in his opinion. I agree with Casserly and to be honest I don&#8217t think Peterson is a top 5 talent if that is what your looking for. Cross him off the list for ever as being a Bronco unless there is a Bailey type trade in the future. I can&#8217t see that far and am glad of it.

Now, what to do about the Dareus/Fairley situation? I agree with you wholehearted and believe the Broncos FO is smart enough to smell throught the hype on Dareus and as I stated in a post over on MHR; Dareus will be a plugger disrupting the front line where Fairley will be a star! Yes, I&#8217ll go out on that limb with chainsaw in hand and make that declaration.

I would hate to see him tearing up the league and here we sit with Dareus plugging holes and plugging along&#8230

In my conclusion, I feel like you do, Von Miller is the safer pick if we could somehow move back a couple of spots. In moving back we can secure more picks (like Xanders related)and if for some nasty reason a team ahead of us takes Miller, then Fairley will be sitting there for the taking&#8230No lose sitution in my book&#8230

Posted by bfree2bronc on 2011-03-31 20:20:34

I have to chime in.

I&#8217ve been putting some thought into the Dareus V. Fairley decision and I have to agree that finding a UT is one most important objectives we have, as well as it being one of the hardest positions to find.

It&#8217s been tough making the long slow turnaround mentally from a 3-4 to a 4-3 but I&#8217ve gradually gotten my head turned back around. I&#8217d played with the idea of Vickerson as a UT but it&#8217s sort of silly. What&#8217s annoying is that it&#8217s a great draft for finding 3-4 talent and we&#8217re not looking for that anymore.

I also have to admit that I, too, wouldn&#8217t mind seeing us trade down a few spots and pick up more draft choices. The obvious lure is Miller, who tore up the combine. I could live with lesser talents on the DL (for now) because we&#8217re in a quantity over quality situation and the DL talent in the crop is so deep that we might be able to finagle 2 DLs of a sufficient talent level besides the aforementioned Miller. Perhaps I&#8217m spoiled but it&#8217s a really frustrating situation to not have 2 1st rounders like we&#8217ve had recently. I guess I just have to keep reminding myself that there are FA vets who have yet to come aboard who will fill the holes that I&#8217m nervous about.

Posted by colinski on 2011-03-30 10:52:09

Excellent presentation, Doc. And very good commentary. Afraid that I don&#8217t have much to add - so I thought that maybe I could comment about what I have gathered looking at the Carolina and NO depth charts.

They both appear to favor good sized DEs and strong, penetrating DTs. The DEs have to set the edge as well as penetrate. That frees the smaller and fast LBs to corral and tackle RBs as well as pass defend.

Looking at that, I think that that favors Fairley. However, as O&B points out - there are a slew of DL FAs from the NFC South - several from NO and CAR - who could step into what would seem to be a similar defense to what they are used to playing already. That scenario would pay immediate dividends to any DL player picked - especially if he were picked early on.

I am wondering about trying DOOM at the SAM position. He is listed at 248 lb. (Von Miller is 246 lb.) I realize that he would not be huge in pass defense but he could take on TEs and has improved against the run. It could be a way to get him in the game as well as having bigger DEs on the DL. Just a thought.

I guess if I were pressed for a choice at #2, I would pick Fairley. I would expect him to push for a starting spot by early in the season and be in the rotation from the get go.

Excellent stuff, guys. I went thru it twice and found more gems the 2nd time.

Thanks, Doc.

Posted by BlackKnight on 2011-03-29 05:57:43

You know, Drew, I chose to not add Bowers to the mix based solely on his medical issue. The rumor mill says that he&#8217s healthy and will show off on his Pro Day this week. When that happens, I&#8217ll have to look further at him. You get the same &#8220one year wonder&#8221 concerns that you have with Fairley, but I don&#8217t really worry as much about that - lots of players mature during college, learn that level and then play exceptionally. I just want to know that he&#8217s healthy - the FO has used the phrase &#8216have to&#8217 in terms of hitting on this pick, so that&#8217s primary. He&#8217s a heck of a player, but that&#8217s a whole long discussion. Worth having, too. Thanks for bringing it up.

Posted by Doc Bear on 2011-03-29 01:49:03

I&#8217m a Lande/Warroom devote, which makes it hard for me to not throw Bowers into the line up of possibles. Last I checked, Lande considers him the best player in the draft. I think he&#8217s both a legitimate candidate and a legitimate possibility for the Broncos at #2. His only real disadvantage this draft season has been being the guy that was The Guy at the beginning of the process/pundit discussion. And The Guy always gets picked apart hardest because its the fashionable thing to do. But he fits need, he fits play making ability, he fits by having potential to be both an immediate impact player WITH a high ceiling. I think he has to be in the discussion. That said, I&#8217d have a hard time whining about him, Dareus, Fairley, or Miller. I&#8217d probably even fall in love with Peterson within ten minutes of that pick&#8230

Posted by Drewthorn on 2011-03-29 00:55:30

Just a superlative evaluation, Doc! One of the criticisms I have had for nearly everything I have read recently was &#8220shallow thinking,&#8221 i.e., the inability to see beyond bits and pieces of the Big Picture. You just showed the Big Picture.

I was all for Dareus until this piece of yours. But in one fell swoop, you changed my entire thinking. Let Carolina think they are pulling a fast one on us by taking Dareus, and let&#8217s end up with the one who should be here in the first place: Nick Fairley.

Posted by LarryB on 2011-03-29 00:26:51

Fun read, Doc. I am ready for draft day, but if we can get a CBA done before that, I would be willing to wait longer since it would help immensely in draft strategy.

We are at a huge disadvantage with not knowing who we will expect to have via FA (and trades). Not knowing if Thomas is coming back I think really makes us have to go DT in at least 2 of the first 4 picks. But of course there is a slew of DL that are FA from the NFC South this FA period that Fox and Allen may already have eyes for. It would be nice to have the FA pieces in place before committing to players via a draft when some of the positions may be better suited filled with FA. I hope Fox doesn&#8217t count on FAs he doesn&#8217t have yet in his draft suggestions.

This is a crazy time to have high picks, I hope it works out.

Posted by Orange and Blue on 2011-03-29 00:16:07

Piper: I would like to subscribe to your newsletter. Land wars in Asia have been bothering me of late.

Dareus or Miller for me. Fairley = gamble. I am not gambling with a high pick.

By the way, folks - Denver now has 7 picks rather than 6, having gotten a compensatory 7th from the NFL. As far as LB goes, they are talking about starting Mean Joe Mays at Mike (see today&#8217s Lard), which is a move that Ted talked about first, and they should be using Wes Woodyard at Will (I know that DJ is expensive, but I don&#8217t like him playing in space. He could end up as a Will or a backup - WW outplayed him in the last 3 games of the year at RILB). Sam is a question mark - Miller is one option, and there will be several to chose from in free agency when that happens. It&#8217s going to be a bidder&#8217s market - if Denver is willing to spend some money, they could improve greatly.

Posted by Doc Bear on 2011-03-28 22:00:43

Grover -

I put up an article a short while back on the Basics of the 4-3 - Find it here:

Short version - A lot of fans aren&#8217t familiar with this, but the DTs on most teams are categorized as under tackles and nose tackles. The proper term for the middle of the 3-4 DL is actually nose guard, although that&#8217s sort of been lost over time.

The undertackle is usually your guy like Warren Sapp - someone who can really penetrate, and who generally works in a single gap scheme. The DT next to him is your nose tackle, and like the nose tackle on the 3-4, he&#8217s usually larger and often plays as a two gapper. Vickerson, at 321 lb, is sort of a better fit at nose, although he&#8217s more athletic than many. Marcus Thomas is an excellent penetrating DT, so he&#8217d probably fit better at UT. He&#8217s very flexible, though.

Sometimes in our modern world they call the different 4-3 DTs a 3 technique (the UT) or a one technique (the NT). That can be misleading, though. I don&#8217t use it because either of the DTs may be lined up in any number of formations as O techs - right on the center&#8217s helmet - or in any number of other options. Whether the team is in an under or over formation (that&#8217s in the article too, so no worries if it&#8217s new stuff) will also affect where they are lined up, so the loose use of 3 technique and 1 technique seems sloppy to me.

I hope this helps, Grover - let me know if there are any other questions as you look at it.

Doc

Posted by Doc Bear on 2011-03-28 21:49:15

I hope we can get Miller in the first round and the two good tackles (Paea and Austin) in the second.

Posted by GRUMPA on 2011-03-28 20:34:01

We need nasty and mean, a game changer on the line, I my opinion I feel the hard part of chosing who to pick comes from lack of consistency over many years at defense. We have run a 5-2 hybrid, 3-4 and 4-3, sometimes the defense was great but the majority of time it flat stunk. I know they are some who don&#8217t like Ayers, but in my opinion he controls his side of the line and takes effort from the opposing line to impose what they are trying to do. Fairley may have issues, but Fairley being teamed up with Ayers, Vickerson and Doom sounds very appealing to me. The key for Doom is getting him one on one with the Tackle, the one downside to Doom is if the offense runs the ball at him. His size is what creates concern for me with him at DE. In my mind he becomes a rush specialist where they can change the pressure at the line to get him one on one.

I would not be surprised if the Broncos took a big run stopping DE in the Draft or from FA when the CBA gets done. There will be some very good or possibly Elite DL available at the 36 pick to provide good rotation and to replace Vick as a starter in the years ahead. Lb is what concerns me after some good selection or selections on the line. DJ really struggles to get free to make a tackle with a blocker on him, my guess is he will switch back to will again which will ultimately help his play. Sam and Mike will be interesting to be honest I am not really sure who will fill these postions under Fox and Allen. Gettin Champ locked down helps tremendously, If cox can stay out of prison then the Broncos are not bad at the Cb position, they may make a selection to bring someone aboard from FA or draft as a contingency plan in case Cox is found guilty. Safety is another place of concern, yeah I know who would think we have issues on defense lol. Will the pressure up front negate issues with the Safety position, or will defensive scheme cover up inadequacies. Lots of issues with only six picks and quite possibly limited FA period.

Posted by tom3565 on 2011-03-28 19:54:50

Doc, I&#8217m confused with your comments about the various players being good at NT or UT. In a 4-3 alignment, which Fox has confirmed we are moving back to, how do the two interior defensive linemen (that I would call DTs)get classified as a NT or UT? I&#8217ve only ever heard NT being used in reference to the 3-4 alignment, and I&#8217m not sure what a UT does that is different. Sorry if I&#8217m being dense, but I&#8217d appreciate it if you could clear up this point because I&#8217m perplexed.

Posted by Grover on 2011-03-28 19:02:28

Space - good point, and one that&#8217s going to get a lot of attention as we get closer to draft day. Do you trade down? If so, how much? Can you get an elite player if you do? Tough question - and a good one.

Sterto - Yes, Vickerson&#8217s unusually athletic for a NT, and that works in Denver&#8217s favor. I&#8217ve been up-front about wanting to sign Thomas, probably the most versatile of the Denver DL players, and I hope they do. The only question that I&#8217d have on using Vick as a UT is - who plays NT? No one who&#8217s signed right now, I&#8217m afraid.

And good point on the Fairley/Price comparison. Both could play at either DE or UT, both bring a lot to the game and their demeanors are similar. Nice catch on that one. I think that Fairley will stay at UT, but you&#8217re right on.

Posted by Doc Bear on 2011-03-28 18:44:09

The only way I see Denver being able to trade back is if Carolina goes QB with the first pick. I think BUF is going to go QB with the #3 so it would take someone wanting to jump BUF to get that second choice of QB.

Otherwise, CIN or ARZ can sit back and wait for BUF to take QB 1 and they can choose their second QB choice. I&#8217m not sold that CIN knows what they&#8217re doing at the QB role and I wouldn&#8217t sharpie in theat AZ has to take a QB. They could very well take a good number of very good players if their guy isn&#8217t there. Then AZ could make a deal for McNabb or a vet once the CBA opens up.

It&#8217s gonna take a very willing partner to want to jump BUF to get out of the #2 pick. I just don&#8217t see that as likely to happen. Now a trade out of the second pick in the 2nd round and moving down a spot or two for an extra 3rd/4th sounds more reasonable.

Posted by Joe Howard on 2011-03-28 18:44:02

piper: fanastic

doc: it&#8217s interesting that as one of your reasons for fairley, you point to having vickerson as the NT. but as big as vickerson is, i feel like he (and thomas if we can keep him) both play like UTs.

i would write off fairley based only on his body type vs dareus, but i&#8217ve seen that uninspiring body type (as well as an uninspiring laid-back demeanor) on another broncos DT: trevor pryce. and he was pretty frickin&#8217 awesome.

Posted by sterto on 2011-03-28 18:34:32

If the Broncos admit to themselves that they are rebuilding (step 1), then the question becomes in regards to trading back is do you draft one great player at #2, or trade back and draft more good players?

Posted by SpaceCowboy on 2011-03-28 18:28:04

Doc, good point(s). I guess it depends on the trading partner. I very much would like to get an &#8216elite&#8217 level player here. You&#8217re right, it gets &#8216dicey&#8217 if we drop back too far, then we have sacrificed quality for quantity in some regards. I wish we had Suh sitting there at #2 this year! It would also be nice to know what the plans of the other teams.

It seems to me that Buffalo, Cinci, AZ, Cleveland, SF, & Tenn all have starting QB issues that should be addressed (maybe that;s the Bronco fan in me talking&#8230).

Posted by RalphW on 2011-03-28 18:08:18

If the Broncos do botch this draft, Fox, Elway, and Xanders will ALL be unemployed in Greenland.

Posted by Piper A R on 2011-03-28 17:42:42

LOL - Great reference Piper. Still one of the funniest, smartest movies of all time, and that scene was one of its best. Let&#8217s hope the FO has developed their resilience to iocaine powder before they drink that wine!

Posted by Doc Bear on 2011-03-28 17:39:38

Great read Doc.

Posted by MW730 on 2011-03-28 17:38:18

But it&#8217s so simple. All one has to do is divine from what I know of the Bronco&#8217s brain trust: are they are the sort of men who would choose the higher floor, or the higher ceiling? Now Fox has said that the Broncos must hit with this pick, so clearly they won&#8217t choose Fairly. But Elway said that he wants players on defense that he would have to account for if he was under center, so clearly they won&#8217t choose Dareus.

(You&#8217ve made your decision then?) Not remotely. Because Fairly comes from Auburn, and the Broncos were at the Auburn pro day, so clearly they will not choose Dareus.

(Truely, you have dizzying intellect.) Wait till I get going! Now, where was I? (Auburn.) Yes, Auburn. But other teams will suspect that going to Auburn to scout Cam Newton is a smokescreen, so they can clearly not choose Fairly.

Ralph, your scenario of trading back has a lot going for it. You really do have several players who will immediately make your team better. It&#8217s true that the Denver media is likely to put absurd levels of pressure on the 1st pick (as will some fans) - it&#8217s also likely that the DL will be the recipient of a couple of picks, and that folks will ignore that DL players in the NFL usually need 1-3 years to get up to speed. That&#8217s likely to be true if they trade back, too, but not as much as if we&#8217re reading &#8216as the #2 pick in the draft&#8217 10 times a day. Trading back has advantages - you can get a top player and add a pick (or two).

The only downside is that you may lose a little of that top &#8216elite&#8217 skill that the best in a draft can bring to the team. And you&#8217re right - one of those two (Fairley or Dareus) may fall to Denver anyway and if not, Miller might. I don&#8217t see Peterson as fitting into the Denver scheme as well, although I love him as a player and consider him elite (Prince Amukamara may also be in that group). Denver would have to find the right trade partner. I found a doodled scenario with Denver and Tennessee in my archives, but Tennessee is far enough back that Denver would have to be willing to make a choice other than Fairley, Dareus or Miller, and that&#8217s where it gets dicey.

By the way, I gave a couple of links on Miller that weren&#8217t as positive as the guy deserves. The ESPN Insider link (if you can access it) was more accurate, in my experience:

Will make his mark in this area. An explosive speed rusher off the edge. Does a nice job of anticipating snap and first-step quickness is just a notch below elite. Displays very good body control and ability to bend and shave the corner. Possesses a wide array of pass rushing moves to keep blockers on their toes. Good suddenness and pop when executing double moves back inside. Displays an effective spin move but does not have a lot of power and strength to disengage once bigger blockers are able to get into position. Closing burst is exceptional and is relentless getting to QB. Certainly has the athleticism to hold up in underneath zone coverage. May have some restrictions matching up in man coverage, though.

He&#8217s a lot more than just fast, and his weight is up to 246 with no loss of speed. Just saying.

Posted by Doc Bear on 2011-03-28 17:22:38

Doc, Thank you. Excellent work as usual!

I have to say that I would love it, it we can trade back a few spaces and still get Von Miller (I would even be okay with taking him at #2, but would obviously love to get another pick and get him at say #5). Here&#8217s my problem and tell me if you&#8217ve hear this before&#8230

Whomever we pick at #2 is going to be (unfairly) anointed as &#8220the savior of Denver&#8217s defense&#8221 or whatever. This will add tremendous pressure to said kid/pick and even though he may be a productive NFL citizen, he&#8217ll always be deemed a &#8220failure&#8221 by Woody, PK, Legwold, or some &#8220McGeorge.&#8221 That&#8217s just the way the Denver media/ fans have acted since being spoiled by the 90&#8217s success.

I&#8217d like to see Elway,Fox,Xanders but their collective heads together and and trade back, stay out of the Fairly/Dareus conversation, unless either falls back to our pick, while having the insurance of an additional second (or whatever corresponded to the pts. chart.).

Posted by RalphW on 2011-03-28 17:04:48

Really enjoyable article Doc.

Great to see an article on the Dareus-Fairley debate which doesnt take the side of one whilst knocking the other.

Everyone is going to have their preference, mine is personally with Dareus, but your case for Fairley is very compelling.

Posted by SteveUk on 2011-03-28 16:58:54

Okay, now I&#8217m a Fairley guy (I&#8217m for whoever I read about last - sort of). But it&#8217s like being a kid in a candy store with a single nickel in my pocket. Still, all this is another good reason to trade down if possible - with Bowers, Dareus, Fairley, Peterson and Miller on tap, one is likely to fall to at least 6 because the Browns might take Greene, and someone in the first 5 will take a QB. So we&#8217d be able to get one of these guys plus a second round pick. If we end up with Peterson, we could always trade Goodman (trust me, trades will happen again).

BTW, PK in MMQB did a good job of convincing me that KO returns will not be a thing of the past, partly because part of the new rule only gives the kicking team a five yard running start instead of ten. He also points out that the average KO last year was to the 5.5 yard line. So I expect Vaughn will get chances this year to show what he can do on returns.

PK did mention that a lot of NFL teams are worried about Fairley because of the one year wonder label - 2 years JC; one OK year at Auburn, and then one great year. Might mean he&#8217s just starting to peak though.

Posted by bradley on 2011-03-28 16:42:16

Thanks Doc.

I heard an interview with Fairley on MTC with Pat Kirwan and Tim Ryan and he was very unimpressive. Myabe he was sick, tired&#8230whatever&#8230but I did not hear a guy fired up to play and he struggled to know some basic questions that he should know.

On the over hand, Dareus interviewed very well on NFLN.

Now, obviously this is not the mark of the player, but after hearing both young men, I was sold on Dareus.

I do like Fairley as a player&#8230he plays with some nasty which our team definitely needs&#8230but I just have some doubt&#8230..