Monday, February 06, 2012

Employment Trends Index Gains in January

"The Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI) increased 0.73% in January to 105.81, from 105.04 in December (see chart above). The January figure is also up 5.9 percent from the same month a year ago.

“The Employment Trends Index has been improving rapidly for four straight months, suggesting somewhat more robust job growth is likely to continue in this quarter,” says Gad Levanon, Director of Macroeconomic Research at The Conference Board. “Beyond that we still remain cautious. We expect sluggish growth in economic activity in the first half of 2012 and therefore we do not foresee the strengthening of the labor market to be sustained in the second quarter of 2012.”

This month’s strength in the ETI was driven by positive contributions from four of the eight components. The improving indicators include Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now, Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry, Industrial Production, and Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales. The Employment Trends Index aggregates eight labor-market indicators, each of which has proven accurate in its own area. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly."

MP: Some additional evidence that the U.S. labor market is showing some signs of strength in recent months, and will continue to improve at least through the first quarter of this year. January marks the 24th consecutive month of year-over-year gains in the ETI following 30 straight months of decline.

If the current LFPR is, in fact, the new normal (I think it is), it has profound implications on the macro economic outlook for the USA. Virtually all of the economic models used by CBO, OMB, SSA and private economists are assuming that the long-term LFPR will be in the mid-to upper 60s. The consensus is 2-3% higher than where it is today...

"The peevish fixation--really a hysterical obsession--with inflation in some circles would be amusing, except that it qualifies as "monetary thinking" in certain gathering fringe elements of the GOP"....

Well not suprisingly pseudo benny commenting while his head is firmly established up his @$$ gives reality a miss by a wide margin...

The last week has offered an amusing display of the difference between the cheerleading corporate mainstream media, lying Wall Street shills and the critical thinking analysts like Zero Hedge, Mike Shedlock, Jesse, and John Hussman. What passes for journalism at CNBC and the rest of the mainstream print and TV media is beyond laughable. Their America is all about feelings. Are we confident? Are we bullish? Are we optimistic about the future? America has turned into a giant confidence game. The governing elite spend their time spinning stories about recovery and manipulating public opinion so people will feel good and spend money. Facts are inconvenient to their storyline. The truth is for suckers. They know what is best for us and will tell us what to do and when to do it.

Romney does not appear unhinged, except for his braying that we must prevail in Afghanistan, and boost military spending.

Really? After 10 years he wants to try even more, with even larger budgets, to "win" in Opiumistan? To bring in even larger poppy revenues? Execute more Christians? Put more women into Islamic chains? This is lunacy.

Worse, Romney has hired as a security adviser a nut who wants to spend even more money on the US Navy, to counter the perceived Chinese threat. You see, Chjna believes it should have some say as to what happens right next to their borders and shores. The nerve!

More ships! (that can be sunk easily).

I see no way Romney, or Obama, can curtail federal spending.

That said, I probably will vote for Romney as the lesser of two evils.