Category Archives: The Pause

The numbers of scientist predicting a drop in global temperature are becoming a large group— ready to challenge the mythical 97%. This blog has posted some of the predictions. The postings have demonstrated that there is not total unanimity as to reason why the temperature will drop. Maybe it is a combination of different things. That is refreshing in light of the warmer’s one size fits all theory that CO2 is essentially raising or will raise global temperature all by itself.

First some discussion that suggests that CO2 is not what the warmers claim.

The warmer’s theory says that atmospheric CO2 molecules intercept low-frequency IR waves radiated from Earth on their way back into space. The exchange warms the atmosphere a little and this causes water to evaporate and move into the atmosphere. Water vapor is a much more significant “greenhouse gas” than CO2. They say that the result is a 3 fold increase in temperature as a result. This is their so-called “climate sensitivity”. This is part of the GIGO that is put into the climate models that the warmers use to predict catastrophic in the future. Let us look and see how well this has turned out for them in the real world versus the computer world.

The chart above was made in June 2013 so it is a little out of date. Next chart will be the latest update.

The important things to know are the following

All those little hair-like lines represent the output from one of the 73 warmer computers. They are all over the place.

The heavy black line aggregates all of the 73 outputs into a single line which represents the “official forecast”.

The blue squares are the actual recorded global temperatures as measured by satellites.

The actual temperature as measured by the weather balloons are shown as black dots.

The balloons and the satellites essentially confirm each other and they are, again, actual measurements.

Every 4 or 5 years, the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) gathers and produces an analysis of the state of the climate. They then issue a technical report and a summary that is primarily for the politicians of the world. One of the features of the IPCC report is how confident they are that their predictions are spot on.

The red arrows show their level of confidence, at the time of the report, as to how sure they are that the forecasts are correct.

The first report said that they were “confident”. As each new report was issued, they got more confident of their forecasts. The last one being 95% certain. This is all happening as the spread between their forecast temperature readings and the actual temperature readings continued to diverge.

The UAH satellite global average temperature anomaly went up moderately in April from March’s +0.19° C to +0.27°C. The Southern Hemisphere and the Tropics led the way, but both are well below the same month’s anomalies in 2016. How low will the anomaly go?

The website CO2 Coalition has a post titled “Climate Change: A summary of the Science”. It one of the best summaries I have come across lately. It is fairly long, so I could do my usual and summarize it, but there is virtually nothing in it that I would want to skip over. So, I will not deprive the reader. I will put it in, in its entirety. I hope that my posting yesterday will fill in any blanks you may have otherwise had.

cbdakota

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News 26 Feb, 2017

Climate Change: A Summary of the Science

The climate change science is settled, but not how the climate alarmists want you to think.

°If cbdakota were appointed the EPA Administrator, he might begin his work issuing this statement:

I thank President Trump for my nomination and the vote approving the nomination.

Our mission will be that the EPA continues to protect the environment and at the same time does not stifle our Nation’s productivity.

Our initial review of the EPA has found some activities, regulations and guidance documents that need to be critically assessed, cancelled or expanded. The following are several of the items that illustrate the issues we uncovered and our plan to deal with these issues:

Endangerment Finding:

The Endangerment Finding (EF) needs to be re-evaluated, revised and updated using current science. The EF is largely based upon the IPCC pre-2007 climate science, making it more than 10 years old. Furthermore, the projections of temperature, sea level and other variables do not match the actual measured temperature and sea level data. These EF projections greatly overstate the size of the changes thus putting into question the amount of endangerment.

I am rebloging Warren Meyers essay that says we should deny the climate catastrophe that the warmers predict. This is a long chapter showing what the actual global temperature data really is. There has been a lot of adjusting the data on the part of the warmers who, with the exception of the UAH satellite data, control the system. This is the 4th chapter of his essay. He titles this one as 4A and has a 4B which reviews the troubles with the surface temperature record. He says the reader can skip 4B, so I may give just a reference to those who want read it can do so.

cbdakota

In our last chapter, we ended a discussion on theoretical future warming rates by saying that no amount of computer modelling was going to help us choose between various temperature sensitivities and thus warming rates. Only observational data was going to help us determine how the Earth actually responds to increasing CO2 in the atmosphere. So in this chapter we turn to the next part of our framework, which is our observations of Earth’s temperatures, which is among the data we might use to support or falsify the theory of catastrophic man-made global warming.

The warmers tell us that there can be no ambiguity about why the atmospheric CO2 is climbing. It is because the “natural” carbon in the carbon cycle is perfectly balanced and addition of unnatural carbon, in the form of CO2 from the burning of fossil fuels is the cause.

For several years, several skeptics have ventured that the rise in atmospheric CO2 is due to the gradual rise of global temperatures. This thinking coincides with the results of the Antarctic Ice Core data that indicates for hundreds of thousand of years when temperature rises or falls CO2 responds to the change in temperature by rising or falling to match the temperature.

Dr. Murry Salby has been lecturing on his findings that show atmospheric CO2 coincides with changes in global temperature and shows no coincidence with increases in CO2 emissions from fossil fuels. In a nutshell, Salby’s theory says, the rate of change of CO2 in the atmosphere can be described by an equation that demonstrates that it only depends on temperature change.

It seems since my last posting, the RSS satellite temperature record will be revised. It appears that it will be cited as proving there was no “pause”. Dr Mears, the chief scientist of RSS said that he has been bombarded with emails wondering why the RSS is supporting the DENIER’S view. Mears believes that the denialists (his words) like to cherry pick the starting point. Watts commented on this by saying:

” It seems to me based on his recent comments that Dr. Mears has gotten fed up with people using his RSS data set to suggest that the world isn’t warming as he expects it should”.