The Mexican Spotted Owl is a threatened species in the United States.
Therefore, the ability to predict the future population of this animal
would benefit the Fish and Wildlife Services by allowing them to have
accurate data when panning timber sales, or various other programs that
would effect the owl's habitat. The Mexican Spotted Owl's habitat is
threatened by logging, fire, and human intervention. The Gila National
Forest, located in southern New Mexico, has the largest population density
of the Mexican Spotted Owl. By using this region's data, this project can
be used to predict Mexican Spotted Owl populations in other heavily
populated regions such as regions in Arizona and Texas.

To be able to predict the populations of the Mexican Spotted Owl,
we had to create a basic mathmatical model of the animal's situation. We
had to study and combine individual equations into this basic equation to
allow our predictions to take this predator's prey into consideration.
For example, the rodent population of the region had to be a single
equation in itself. This equation was then colaborated with the original
equation to produce more accurate results. Variable such as the
destruction and modification of habitat caused by timber harvest and
fires, and the increased predation associated with habitat fragmentation,
will be implimented into this equation at a later date. Once this model
is complete and able to be upgraded when necessary, our computer
grogramming will take its turn.

The graphing equation we are using for the interactions of the
Mexican Spotted Owl is a predator versus prey graph. The predator versus
prey graph, also called Gnuplot, uses two factors which are population and
time. The time will be spread out into yearly fragments. Gnuplot uses an
X and Y axis so that the two lines of predators and prey can easily be
seen intercepting one another.

We have collected in formation on the Mexican Spotted Owl, its
habitat, its prey, and its predators. We have decided to use the Gnuplot
program to aid us in our progress. We are using Gnuplot to discover the
increase or decrease in the Mexican Spotted Owl's population over a time
span of one year. We are substituting our findings into Gnuplot's
mathematical equation and also using its Y and X coordinate devices for
our input, output solution.

Gnuplot is written out in the mathematical equation of the
population multiplied by the time in years, which equals the population
minus the time, plus half of the population, multiplied by the time, minus
one. In abstract form, it would look like this:
pop(t)= [pop(t)-1] + 1/2[pop(t)-1] - 1/3[pop(t)-1]
The X axis would equal the population and the Y axis would equal the time
in years.

To date, we have not come up with our own computer program.
Several simulation programs have been recommended to us which we are
investigating. It is unclear whether we should manipulate an existing
program or develop an original. Our programming skills are limited and an
oringinal program would not demonstrate the complexity of our model.

Using the collected data and Gnuplot's outline we plan to have a
program that will be able to accurately simulate the Mexican Spotted Owl
population in our chosen area of the country. Our program will aid all
wildlife specialists in the observation and care of this specific animal.