[14.04] Solar and Geomagnetic Precursor Predictions

K. Schatten (GSFC/NASA)

Recently a NASA supported, NOAA SEC panel of experts predicted
that the next solar cycle would peak in early 2000 at a sunspot
number value of 160 +/- 30, or equivalently an F10.7 radio flux
of 205 +/- 30. This value was arrived at by group consensus,
and close to both the geomagnetic precursor and solar precursor prediction values. We discuss:

1)The historical origin for precursor indices;
2) The physical basis for the solar and geomagnetic precursors.;
3) How big are the differences between these two techniques, and what do they mean?;
4) From the above, the listener may be able to form a better picture of the next cycle.