AccuWeather.com releases summer forecast

What is in this article?:

• The weather pattern that produced a wild winter for the Northeast and parts of the Midwest, then extreme flooding and devastating killer tornadoes this spring, is changing to one that may not be as volatile this summer.

• However, given the national economic impacts of the tornadoes and floods this spring, all it would take is one hit by a major hurricane to stress the economy even more.

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The La Niña that has driven the extreme weather since winter is over, but the lingering effects mean no summer for the Great Lakes, drought conditions expanding out of the southern Plains, and flooding expanding into the Midwest from the Mississippi Valley.

The weather pattern that produced a wild winter for the Northeast and parts of the Midwest, then extreme flooding and devastating killer tornadoes this spring, is changing to one that may not be as volatile this summer. However, given the national economic impacts of the tornadoes and floods this spring, all it would take is one hit by a major hurricane to stress the economy even more.

Senior Meteorologist Paul Pastelok, leader of the AccuWeather.com Long-Range Forecasting Team, said a change in the weather pattern means areas of the lower Mississippi Valley hit by flooding will have hot, drier weather this summer, which could help clear standing water and dry saturated ground.

However, we will need to keep a careful eye on the tropics as late-season tropical storms could threaten the Gulf and/or East Coast states.

The end of the La Niña pattern will threaten to make the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Midwest a region "without a summer." Repeated intrusions of cool air from Canada, along with showers and thunderstorms, will keep temperatures below normal in many areas. Temperatures topping 90 F may be rare.

The severe weather that has plagued the South this spring will shift northward. Frequent bouts of thunderstorms could mean numerous instances of flooding, hail and wind damage, even tornadoes. While we probably had the most extreme tornado activity of 2011 during April and May, the summer still has potential to bring a few moderate outbreaks of tornadoes.

Flooding may be the biggest concern this summer, as already-soggy ground canhandle only so much heavy rain.

The Northeast has been frequently cloudy and damp this spring, but that is forecast to change this summer. While not as hot as it was last year, it will become warmer and more humid this summer with temperatures close to long-term averages.

That means in major cities along the I-95 corridor, temperatures will hit the 90-degree mark or higher for the typical number of times this summer. The summer may end with good beach weather after a dismal start on Memorial Day weekend.

The region will have its share of rainfall, as more showers and thunderstorms will return during mid-summer, and humidity levels may run higher than normal.

Pastelok also added there is always the threat of a tropical system sneaking up the coast from the south, as hurricane season will ramp up by the end of June.