Frederick Forsyth

Best-selling author and political commentator

May's formula for a Brexit disaster, says FREDERICK FORSYTH

IT IS not rocket science but clear common sense: if you are going into a negotiation and there is a formula granting you about 80 per cent of what you want and it looks likely to pass, don't faff around. Grab it: 80 per cent is about as good as it gets.

In the vexed business of the UK leaving the EU, clearly voted for more than two years ago, it appears there exists such a formula that the Brussels team across the table would be likely to accept.

The code (all these things are in code) is the Canada-Plus-Plus formula but Theresa May bizarrely refuses to go for it on all cylinders.

The invocation of Canada is because that large, rich and democratic country retains her full sovereignty (where we have conceded huge chunks of ours) yet trades with the entire EU on exactly the same terms that we do.

And trade is the key to every consideration.

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Under this formula we would leave the EU without rancour, retrieve the supremacy of our courts, recover the sole jurisdiction of our elected Parliament, abolish thousands of EU rules, laws, regulations, directives and diktats (which never applied to Canada and we do not want either) and repossess our agriculture and ocean fisheries. (When did Canadians ever pay large subsidies to European farmers or see their fishing waters raped?)

EVEN more to the point we could, like Canada, sign free trade agreements with anyone we liked, and we know a score of rich economies are gagging to do more trade with us.

We cannot at the moment because we need Brussels' permission. But, remaining inside the European Free Trade Area we could still trade vigorously with all 27 countries of the EU. What's not to like? Not a lot. But would the Brussels team accept this? Seemingly, very likely.

British Prime Minister Theresa May steps out of Number 10 Downing Street (Image: Jack Taylor/Getty Images)

So what has happened? Well, it has been brushed under the carpet. By? Downing Street, in the form of Theresa May as she blindly and obstinately pushes on with her disastrous "Chequers" formula which all sides, Michel Barnier (Brussels chief negotiator) included, have rejected out of hand.

Constantly mentioned in our papers is the real deal-killer - the so-called Irish Backstop. So what the devil is that? A requirement that we must abandon Northern Ireland and draw a north-south border down the middle of the Irish Sea with the six counties of British Ulster still inside the EU.

This deliberately confected lie states that you cannot have a strife-free border between a non-EU country and an EU member. Really? Well there are seven on the continent and cross-border traffic flows quite free of any friction.

In the north of Scandinavia there is a Russia-Finland border, then a Finland-Norway one. Right down the spine of Scandinavia runs the border between Norway (outside) and Sweden (inside). The classic example of fully computerised and friction-free borders are those from France, Italy, Germany and Austria (three of them EU founder members) and Switzerland which has twice declined to join and remains rich, peaceful and independent.

A peaceful north-south Irish border with all cargo tariffs computerised for later settlement would be perfectly possible. So what has gone wrong? Well, our negotiating attitudes are a complete shambles and even Brussels agrees to that. It concedes nothing because every time it refuses we capitulate.

At the heart of our miserable failure are two names. Theresa May and her personally appointed chief negotiator, EU-devotee Olly Robbins. So, is that miserable failure really accidental or is it quietly deliberate? The Tory Party is going to be consigned to no-member, novoter, no-donor history unless it sorts this Fubar (fouled up beyond all recognition) without delay.