Second Houston Shipping Conference Targeting Opportunities in the Oil and Gas Sector

Transcription

1 Second Houston Shipping Conference Targeting Opportunities in the Oil and Gas Sector With the increase in the demand for energy around the world, this year s Houston Shipping Conference will focus on opportunities in the Oil and Gas Industry by bringing together industry representatives, governmental officials and scholars. Executive Summary & Participation List By Vincent H. Kwon and Javad Mushtaq In cooperation with: Royal Norwegian Embassy, Washington, DC Innovation Norway, Houston Greater Houston Partnership Hart Energy US Brazil Energy Forum For World Commerce and Development

2 Introduction The participants were welcomed with introductory remarks from Deputy Consul General of Brazil, Roberto F. Ardenghy, Consul General of the Republic of Korea, Amb. Suk-bum Park, Consul General of Norway, Dr. Jostein Mykletun, and Counselor of Industrial Affairs at the Royal Norwegian Embassy in Washington D.C., Mr. Arild Wegener. They highlighted the significance of the three countries within the areas of shipping and offshore, and their international competitiveness and significance in this field. This was the first time three consulates have collaborated together for an event, which was highlighted through the introductory remarks. The importance of this collaboration, and the focus on the interface of shipping and oil and gas, was highlighted through a formal greeting sent by the Mayor of Houston, Annise D. Parker: I commend the consulates general of Brazil, Korea and Norway, their respective chambers of commerce, and partner organization for hosting such an important and relevant event. Please accept my best wishes for an enriching and productive conference. Opening Keynote Changes in the Global Energy Industry Implications for International Shipping Kristine Klavers, Senior Vice President, Hart Energy Driven by booming global population, there will be a sharp increase in oil demand over the next 20 years with China and India as the two major drivers. China alone would account for one third of the growth, and we expect an approximate of 31% increase in Global Crude Oil Demand by On the supply side, Iraq and Brazil would have the greatest unutilized potential. Brazil s heavy crude oil production is forecasted to increase through 2016 then decline under the assumption that Petrobras main area of focus is developing the light oil pre-salt reservoirs. Canada has significant deposits of heavy oil, while the United States primarily has large deposits of "unconventional" oil and gas resources. The gas market in the USA will be heavily influenced especially in the sense that prices are significantly lower than the world market price. The changes also mean that the new refinery capacity is growing in the U.S. which would affect crude import and export of finished products - with the impact it will have on the structure of international shipping. The region with the highest percentage growth in heavy crude production is the Middle East which more than doubles by Environmental requirements are becoming stricter, but it also makes the technology available with the steady improvement in fuel quality as a result. Key law in the environmental area is the US Clean Air Act of 1963 which has since been updated several times, most recently in The biggest changes to come will probably happen in the shipping industry as they will have to comply with new MARPOL Annex VI regulations. Technology innovations such as SOx scrubbers and NOx SCR, lower-sulfur distillates, and fuel switch to LNG

3 are all possible options for compliance. At present, Norway is relatively advanced, with around 30 LNGpowered ships. Challenges persist for the shipping industry but with the rise in global population and energy supply, international shipping faces a bright outlook with advances in technology aiding in the compliance of new regulations. Panel Session 1 : Global Market Overview Moderator Panelists Keith B. Letourneau, Bell, Ryniker, Letourneau Jacob Brechan, Fearnley Offshore David J. Saginaw, McQuilling Services David Brady, HMM America The mobile offshore drilling rig market has increased about 40% over the past 10 years with all units being utilized effectively until the financial crisis and Macondo. Following these events grew a trend toward everdeeper waters both in the Gulf of Mexico and Brazil leading to an increased demand for semi-submersible drilling rigs. Problems persist however, as Jack-ups are old and technically obsolete fleet requiring significant and costly upgrades. In the FPSO market, total investment is expected to double during the period with Latin America and West Africa leading in investments. As onshore production begins to level out, offshore production is playing an increasing role in meeting supply with trends leading towards deeper waters. This is reflected in the slightly larger share of expenditures for FPSOs compared to FPS installations through Currently, there is a small fleet of about 200 FPSO units, most converted 75,000 dwt. tankers with an average age of 24 years. South Korea has dominated the newbuilding FPSO market with Singapore dominating the FPSO conversion market. Going forward, offshore Brazil will be the center of FPSO activities. The outlook for the market is bright and it is important to note the rising role of LNG in future FPSOs. World container trade growth is forecasted to grow 7% through 2013 driven by increasing economic activity in both the U.S. and EU. Currently, the containership orderbook is comprised of 3.6 million TEU but this delivery still remains subject to slippage and cancellation. Fleet growth, capacity management and demand patterns affect the overall balance of the market, and oversupply leads to lower utilization factors and downward pressure on freight rates. Over the past two years, supply growth has outpaced demand, and is predicted to continue in 2013.

4 Panel Session 2 : Global Capital Energy Markets Moderator Panelists John C. Welch, NACC Rodrigo Bacellar, Brazil Development Bank Stian Løvseth, DNB Bank Sangjin Ju, Export Import Bank of Korea In response to the growing population of Brazil and its development into a middle class country, the Brazilian Development Bank has prepared itself to fund a wide array of investments. Driven by Brazil s burgeoning oil and gas industry, growth in the shipbuilding industry will be led by long term demand for drill ships and offshore vessels and investments in shipyards and the Brazilian marine supply chain. Local content requirements of the law will also be a driver for this growth. One of the primary projects funded by BNDES includes 14 FPSOs and 28 new drill ships for Petrobras to be built in Brazilian shipyards. It was also shown that it has implemented various incentive programs to promote research and development via Inova Petro which is a joint initiative along with FINEP and Petrobras. From a Norwegian perspective, DNB showed that among other things the current lending market is suffering from the consequences of stricter bank regulation, especially under the auspices of the BIS, as well as tougher borrowing terms from the banking industry. However, the offshore oil and gas industry is a favored sector for high yield investors with year-to-date new issuances exceeding $41 billion. Future forecasts indicate more activity for drilling, offshore supply vessel and oilfield service companies. As of 2011, Korea has accounted for approximately 15% of LNG imports of the world with continuing growth forecasted for the future. Also, the Korean government hopes to have 20% of their LNG imports and developments comprised of shale gas by This demand for energy coupled with Korea s robust shipbuilding sector has given rise to an increasing number of energy projects which have been financed in part by Korea s Eximbank. Over one-third of Korea Eximbanks assets are comprised of ship finance and continues to remain in a strong position in the market for construction of LNG ships and drilling vessels.

5 Keynote James Watson, Director Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement In the wake of the Deepwater Horizon disaster - in which 11 people were killed and 11 million barrels of oil released - a new regulatory environment swept the offshore industry. With a prescriptive and performance based regulatory approach, BSEE seeks to establish new standards for blowout preventers, well design, casing, and cementing and an updated set of safety and environmental systems rules. Significant technological developments would also continue to drive future safety. The upgrade of the legislation is a mix of retail and functional requirements. A large part of the development that is going on is under the auspices of the oil companies themselves. It is important to note that much of what has happened and is still happening, is highly relevant for shipping operators on the shelf. BSEE is equipped to keep up with developments by bolstering its workforce with an extensive recruitment program including 166 new employees in Work is also an extensive digitization to strengthen relationships with the industry and make the rules as accessible as possible and updated. Finally, the cooperation and coordination between the U.S. Coast Guard and BSEE has strengthened since the accident. Panel Session 3 : Technology and Innovation Moderator Panelists Jon P. Vague Kwan Won Sohn, Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering Kenneth Vareide, Des Norske Veritas John A. Moseley, Port of Houston Authority In an effort to recover from the economic recession and subsequent rise in fuel costs, DSME has made steps to improve fuel efficiency which will result in less fuel and emissions. The use of LNG will be important in garnering future investments and ensuring fuel efficiency. Tighter regulations however in regards to NOx and SOx emissions will continue to pose a problem for operation costs. Further technological developments will focus on air lubrication and drag reduction techniques to reduce resistance, improve propulsion, and optimize operation.

6 According to the DNV 2020 Shipping Outlook, future technologies and innovations will be driven by the regulatory environment and economic growth. The use of LNG fuel and marine distillates will be heavily used in future ships. A series of concept ships will lead the new visions for the maritime industry including the low energy ship which focus on new hull designs and drag reduction techniques, the green fuelled ship, electric ship, digital ship, and the arctic ship. The Houston Port Authority has begun its adaptation to the expansion of the Panama Canal, which among other things will allow three times as large container ships to transit the canal. The expected increase in traffic in the wake of the expansion has been quite divergent with current projections. HPA had for its part down scaled its own expansion program somewhat and thinking was at least as much governed by the fact that Houston has the largest population growth in the United States with a correspondingly large increase in demand. It would also be put through an extensive rationalization and dredging at the port which would continue until the end of Principal Conference Keynote Sete Brasil 28 Drilling Rigs Program for Petrobras Mr. João Carlos Ferraz, CEO, Sete Brasil In its debut international presentation, Sete Brasil gave a thorough introduction of itself and its current projects in Brazil. Sete Brasil is an equity investment company that specializes in assets portfolio management in the oil and gas industry, especially those related to Brazilian Pre-salt. Currently, Sete Brasil has a strategic partnership with Petrobras comprised of 28 long term charter contracts. These projects are driven largely in part from the discovery of Pre-salt reserves off the coast of Brazil which will account for 40% of domestic production by 2020 which is a jump from 2% in 2011.

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