September 30, 2015

Does the rest of the world point and laugh, scratch their head in puzzlement, or silently rage at the hypocrisy of it all when the U.S. government makes completely un-self aware statements like this?

Washington quickly criticized the airstrikes [in Syria by Russia] — warning that they bring added risks to Syria — but said Moscow’s moves would not change a U.S.-led air campaign targeting Islamic State strongholds in Syria.

...

Carter said there was a “logical contradiction” in Russia’s aim of fighting terrorism in Syria while also supporting the Assad regime. He said the Russians were “seemingly taking on everyone who is fighting Assad,” as opposed to the U.S. approach of specifically targeting the Islamic State and like-minded extremists. “We believe at least some parts of the anti-Assad opposition belong as part of a transition going forward.”

At a White House news briefing Wednesday, press secretary Josh Earnest warned that “Russia will not succeed in imposing a military solution on Syria.”

Our bombs are bombs of love, peace, compassion, understanding, and " a broadly supported diplomatic initiative aimed at a negotiated political transition [that would] unite all Syrians who reject dictatorship and terrorism."

Russian bombs are just mean and kill innocent civilians. Ours kill terrorists and may on occasion accidentally create some dead no-so-terroristy people collateral damage.

September 28, 2015

Might a government shutdown be a good thing? At least relatively speaking.

In the comments about Speaker Boehner’s plan to step down next month, one consistent theme has been that at least this will allow him to avert a government shutdown this week. The reason being that he won’t have to worry about getting a leadership challenge when he makes the inevitable decision to pass a bill with Democratic votes, he can just bring the bill to the floor and pass it. So he can just do it.

But that seems extremely short-sighted. Whoever follows him will have the same caucus to deal with. (Minus one moderate vote: Boehner’s) So what comes next? Well, in part that depends on how long the continuing resolution to avoid a shutdown is good for. We could be looking at a reprise of the fight in early December, according to one analysis I read.

But the real worry is something else. The debt ceiling needs to be raised by the end of the year. Failure to pass a continuing resolution (an actual budget and spending bills being out of the question) merely shuts down the government for a while. Eventually, we get going again. A lot of money gets wasted, and a lot of important programs are massively disrupted. But once it’s over, it’s over and we can just go on . . . at least until the next one.

But a debt ceiling fight is a different story. Last time we came close to failing to get it done, the US government got our credit rating dropped for the first time ever. Which raises the cost of the debt going forward. And if, this time, we actually default? The costs would be huge.

Think it can’t happen? I wouldn’t bet the ranch on it. Because getting it done would almost certainly require the new Speaker to risk (and probably lose) his new post by doing a deal with the Democrats, in defiance of his own caucus.

The real question is which of the nut cases’ favorites get tacked on to the resolution in the House. Cut funding for Planned Parenthood? Almost certainly. Repeal Obamacare? That, too. Privatize Social Security? Why not? Carpe diem.

Then we see what happens in the Senate. Do the Democrats simply refuse to gut programs that they see as vital? Or do they do what they decide that they must, for the good of the nation? Kind of depends on which GOP base enthusiasms get into the bill.

Ditto for what the President will do, if a bill gets to his desk.

But suppose, as an alternative, the government shutdown actually happens. Probably it runs for a while, before the House Republican leadership decides to do what must be done. And the reaction is then what it was the last time (and the time before) that this happened. The damage done might actually be enough for the moderate Republicans to refuse to pander to the crazies over the debt ceiling. Even if that means doing a deal with the Democrats to elect a (Republican) Speaker who would let sane bills come to the floor for a vote.

Not, certainly, a scenario to count on. But quite possible a better chance. Not good, mind. Just better than the alternative.

September 24, 2015

There was a threatened conversation about this, so to kick it off, I give you Yogi, from Daily Kos by way of the count

Yogi was born in 1925 and 1930 U.S. Census records show that Yogi’s father, Pietro, who arrived in the U.S. from northern Italy in 1909, still declared as an alien five years after Yogi was born. So did his mother, Pauline. It didn’t matter to Yogi, of course. The 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution guaranteed him citizenship. Berra died Tuesday, and here’s the Sports Illustrated headline on its obituary: “Remembering the great American life of Yankees Legend Yogi Berra.” Yogi’s certainly was a great American life. Emphasis on “American.” And it was a life made possible by the 14th Amendment. (link)

Of course, that might be weighing the rhetorical scales a bit, but since Mario Mendoza went back to Mexico, I leave it to McT to provide a counter example.

September 23, 2015

September 22, 2015

As I'm sure you've heard, it appears that somewhere in the Volkswagen management structure a decision was made that it would be "good for the bottom line" to program its cars to cheat on the U.S. emissions test. It now appears that VW has done this in more than just in the U.S., and at least 11 million cars sold worldwide have this, uh, "issue."

VW has set aside $7.3B to deal with the fallout, although that might not be nearly enough as fines in the U.S. alone could run to $18B. VW shares have dropped by more than 25% and a class action lawsuit has already been filed. In my mind this should, quite frankly, lead to the bankruptcy of the company and land many people in jail (see, e.g.).

But I have my doubts. It seems to me that this is much like the 2008 financial crisis and all the MBS shenanigans where so many people committed so much fraud that to throw them all in jail and impose the appropriate fines on their employers would be impossible and possibly just make things worse (so we showered them with cash instead! At least in the immediate aftermath).

I guess we'll see how the DOJ's new supposed emphasis on white collar crime pans out in this case. Or if we get the same pattern here as we've had with the banks - eventually they will pay what appear to be large fines in a settlement, but which are in fact smaller than they appear because they are tax deductible ("no admission of wrongdoing") and are really only 10 cents on the dollar (or less) of what they would have paid had the penalties in the law been strictly applied. Oh, and almost no one goes to jail.

September 19, 2015

As some folks may be aware, Massachusetts is battling rising levels of opioid abuse. Heroin, but also prescription meds like oxycontin. Something like 1,000 people died from opioid overdoses in MA last year.

One of the harder hit towns is Gloucester, up there on the tip of Cape Ann. Gloucester traditionally has been a fishing town. That's changing somewhat because the fishing industry itself is changing - mostly because there aren't as many fish - but it's still at core a small-ish scrappy somewhat hardscrabble blue-collar city. Gloucester has had problems with hard drug abuse for years, and the current wave of opioid abuse is hitting the city harder than many other places.

The chief of police in Gloucester, Leonard Campanello, hit upon a simple scheme to help address this:

If you show up at the police station and let them know you're an addict, they will take you to the hospital, pair you up with a volunteer counselor, and check you into rehab. Right now, not a day or a week or a month later. If you are holding any drugs or paraphernalia, the cops will dispose of it for you.

No questions asked, no criminal charges. Just a lift to the hospital and an introduction to folks who will help you out.

They've had pretty good results with it, I think about 100 people have gone through the program as of August. It started in June, so that's like a person a day.

Now Campenello is raising the ante. He has posted the names, salaries, and contact information for five of the most highly-paid pharma CEOs.

He's asked folks who are interested in doing so to make some calls and give the pharma execs a "little push", to see if they can take on some responsibility for how their products are handled and distributed.

It's an interested role for a police chief to play. We'll see what happens.

September 18, 2015

i will kick if off by talking a little bit about the scorcese bio-pic about george harrison, which i watched not quite two years ago to kill the time while visiting my in-laws.

harrison was, indeed, the dark horse of the beatles. ambitious, but always in the shadow of paul and john as a songwriter. he kind of fulfilled the role of the other-worldly above-it-all spiritual-slash-artistic guy, but i think he also really wanted the recognition (and, frankly, royalties) that came with being the guy who wrote and sang the song.

my guess is that his spiritual disciplines are what kept him from spending his days shooting heroin and fading away as the embittered also-ran in what was a really astounding assembly of sheer talent.

also, from throwing eric freaking clapton under a bus.

one of my favorite lines in the movie comes not from harrison, but from patti boyd. she's talking about how she started her relationship with clapton while still married, or at least involved in some way or other, with harrison. clapton apparently asks her if she's just into him because he's famous.

mind you, she's married to a f***ing beatle at this point. plus, in her own right, just drop-dead big-doe-eyed pouty-lipped adorably gorgeous. the belle of the british invasion ball.

"I thought you were into me because *I* was famous", says patti.

touche.

but my absolute favorite moment in the movie was ringo talking about how he went to see harrison in the hospital in switzerland toward the end of harrison's life.

harrison at this point is basically on his deathbed. he's really just barely hanging on. ringo says he's sorry, he can't stay too long, because he has to go to new york and see his daughter, who is also having some kind of health issues.

"do you want me to go with you?", asks george. the man is dying, he can hardly sit up, let alone go fly across the freaking ocean.

but, he wanted to help.

god bless the beatles, now and forever. they were complicated, astoundingly gifted, ambitious, competitive dudes, individually and together, but they gave the world nothing but love and beauty.

I keep meaning to put up a post about public defenders in the U.S. criminal justice system but can't find the time. So, here's a link to Slate with a John Oliver bit on public defenders, and here's a recent Op-Ed in the WaPo by a public defender in New Orleans. A taste:

Because we don’t have enough lawyers on staff, the week I passed the bar in 2013, I began representing people facing mandatory life sentences on felony charges....An unconstitutionally high caseload means that I often see my new clients only once in those two months. It means that I miss filing important motions, that I am unable to properly prepare for every trial, that I have serious conversations about plea bargains with my clients in open court because I did not spend enough time conducting confidential visits with them in jail. I plead some of my clients to felony convictions on the day I meet them.

That's just, as we lawyers like to say, insane. But hey, if you didn't do anything wrong you wouldn't have been arrested.

Discuss whatever, including Wednesday's, uh, debate. [Trigger warning: post at the link is not polite.]

September 12, 2015

Our discussions of politics tend (perhaps understandably) to be rather US-focused. So here's something a little different.

With the election of Jeremy Corbyn as party leader, Britain's Labour Party seems to be emulating the US' Republican Party in stepping away from the center. How much difference will it make in the results that it's a Parliamentary system, rather than a Congressional/Presidential one?

And does it matter that part of Corbyn's electoral win seems to be due to getting a whole lot of people** who were not previously Labour Party members to pony up the £3 (roughly US$4.60) required to become a member and vote?

** "A whole lot" meaning the number of Labour Party members roughly tripled as a result of Corbyn's push to get new people to sign up and vote for him.

September 08, 2015

I'm wondering what the view is from those in Germany and the rest of the commentariat. A couple of observations.

I wonder if reunification and/or the integration of the Turkish gastarbeiter was, in a sense, dry runs for this. Of course, both of these have not been problem free, but since 2000. Turks born in Germany to parents who have been in country for 8 years as permanent residents have been eligible for citizenship.

I also wonder if Merkel is driven by getting tired of playing the bad guy in the Greek crisis.

I'd love to know what the various countries are saying to each other and to themselves. thoughts?

Addenda

Regular Hartmut added in a comment that I'm pulling up here

If you ask me, Merkel is the ultimate pragmatist. Securing her right flank and keeping her coalition partner (the center left SPD) docile at the same time is very high on her agenda. The European leaders are playing a game of Black Pete (Old Maid for the English speakers). And I think Merkel is fed up with the behaviour of the others that still believe they can morally blackmail Germany (her predecessor Kohl put up with a lot in order to build up the EU from the inside and many consider Merkel to be his naive fosterchild that can be easily abused). Now they cry foul because she is tougher than she looks and willing to throw her weight around if necessary (although mainly behind the scene). Personally, I think that the main culprits at the moment are Hungary (marching further to the right every day) and Poland (where the religious Right is as rabid as in the US and even more influential). Greece can be excused at the moment given their own serious problems (otherwise their extreme xenophobia aimed in particular against people from Turkey and its neighbours would put them among the worst offenders). France has its own longstanding problems with the influx from North Africa (far worse than what Germany had to face until very recently) and Italy has been a general political basket case for far too long (with xenophobia a common political tool up to promises to have the navy sink refugee boats in front of TV cameras as a deterrent).In other words no one really knows how to deal with the situation properly and Merkel's pragmatism shines just in contrast to the helplessness of her Western and the shamelessness of her Eastern and South Eastern neighbours. The Scandinavians are willing but their capacity is running out quickly.Turkey and Lebanon are shouldering the heaviest burden at the moment by far and whatever one thinks of Erdogan, one cannot blame him for not keeping the floodgates 'protecting' Europe shut anymore.---The real digestive final exits are of course the Gulf States. ISIS is their illegitimate lovechild but they have not taken a single refugee in (although they have opened their purses a good deal, admittedly).