Pilarski on gambling: How long you play makes difference on payouts

Oct. 26, 2011

Written by

Mark Pilarski

Best Bets correspondent

QUESTION: You, along with other gambling writers, always suggest to play on slot machines that advertise specific returns on machines. Well, I was in Nevada, playing on advertised machines that were supposed to return 99 percent, and, to say the least, I got crushed. Any chance you want to retract that statement? — Jason F.

ANSWER: Every slot machine, Jason, is meticulously designed and tested to assure the casino a specific, happy end result. The “payback percentage” is the portion of the money put into the slot that is eventually paid out to the player. The reason I recommend playing an advertised 99 percent payback machine in contrast to an 86 percent payback machine, is a casino will hold, over the long run, 1 percent of the money played through a 99 percent machine versus 14 percent of the money played through the 86 percent machine. That doesn’t mean you can expect 99˘ to drop into the tray for every dollar’s worth of handle yanks. The percentage return is a long-term concept, and your gaming timeline possibly is limited to hundreds of yanks of the handle, not millions, so any percentage return can — and will — happen.

In your case, the Law of Averages did not have time to work during your trip to Nevada. Your gambler’s timeline (slot time) still was relatively short, be it three hours or three days, so anything can happen — yes, even in the land where dreams are made — getting crushed.

Payouts can be volatile. I have witnessed players play for hours and win on some of the worst machines the casino offers. And dare I say it, other players getting crushed on a 99 percent return machine quicker than you can say Jack Robinson.

What you don’t want to do, Jason, is to ignore the mathematical odds that are working for or against you. Long term, you will see a different, hopefully better, outcome.

Q: Even when I get decent hands at blackjack, I can never seem to get ahead. My high teen hands (17s through 19s) can’t beat a hot dealer who gets more than their fair share of 20s, or their uncanny ability of drawing to it. Help! — Bill W.

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A: Suppose I decided to open up a casino, fittingly calling it, Pilarski’s Grind Joint. My grand-opening offerings — besides 9/6 video poker, single-zero roulette and a $3.49 prime rib buffet — would include all patrons at blackjack automatically are issued a blackjack hand with a total of 18. Would you, Bill, be a taker of that wager?

If you answer yes, you would end up losing 60 cents for every $100 you bet. Infinite 18s will not make you a long-term winner at blackjack.

Even your 19s will lose more than they win when the dealer’s upcard is a 10 or an ace. So, what constitutes a strong hand? Well, it is those 20s, which you were not getting during your recent gambling timeline. With a 10-10 against any dealer’s upcard, you will make money over the long run. In point of fact, approximately 70 percent of your overall winnings at blackjack result from these two hands: 10-10 and an ace-10. If you were not getting these power hands, along with your fair share of blackjacks, double downs and split possibilities, I can see how going home light in the wallet was a real probability.