Iowa State economist authors report on population trends in the Midwest this decade

Posted May 19, 2010

AMES, Iowa -- Demographers like Liesl Eathington eagerly await
the new population data that will be provided by this
year's U.S. Census. But before looking ahead to the latest
population numbers, Eathington finds value in reflecting on
Iowa and Midwest population trends this decade -- and where
they're headed.

That's why the Iowa State University economist authored a
new report,
"2000-2009 Population Growth in the Midwest: Urban and
Rural Dimensions," posted online on ISU's Regional
Economics and Community Analysis Program (RECAP) website. The
report examines the rural-urban dimensions of population change
across a 12-state Midwestern region (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa,
Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota,
Ohio, South Dakota and Wisconsin) over the first nine years of
the decade.

While Iowa's total population grew by 2.8 percent over the
past nine years, the report shows that the growth has occurred
in the state's largest cities and their suburbs, while the
rural areas are losing residents. All but 22 of Iowa's
counties have declined in population over the last nine years
-- with just 10 counties around the metropolitan areas growing
faster than the Midwest region's 3.8 percentage growth.
Midwest growth is less than half the 9.1 percent average
population growth across the United States.

Eathington emphasizes that Iowa is not alone when it comes to
rural population decline. A similar story has been playing out
across much of the Midwest, particularly in three states to the
west of Iowa.

"I thought our pattern was similar to Kansas, North
Dakota, and to some of extent, Nebraska," said Eathington,
who is the director of RECAP. "States on the western edge
of the region are experiencing different degrees of population
decline, but similar patterns. The metro areas are really the
pull and may be contributing to some of the drain in the
non-metro areas."

Putting population in urban and rural terms

The report explores the patterns of population change using
several different definitions and degrees of "urban"
and "rural." For example, Eathington's analysis
compares the experiences of metropolitan and micropolitian
areas with other, less populated counties in the region.

Iowa has 20 counties in metropolitan areas, defined by the U.S.
Office of Management and Budget as a central county with an
urban core of 50,000 or more in population, plus neighboring
counties with strong linkages to the core area. The state also
has 17 counties in micropolitan areas, defined around urban
core areas with population from 10,000 to 49,999.

Iowa's metropolitan and large urban counties actually
outperformed regional average growth rates, but its small urban
and rural counties experienced higher rates of loss. The
state's small urban counties lost 4.5 percent of their
population, while six states in the region had slight growth in
their small urban counties -- with Missouri having the highest
at 1.6 percent.

Rural counties across the Midwest averaged a 5.1 percent
population loss over the nine years. Kansas (11.7 percent) and
Nebraska (11.1 percent) had the highest rate of loss.
Iowa's rural counties lost 7.4 percent of their population.

The agricultural effect

A heavy reliance on agriculture is common to the states
experiencing the greatest rural population loss -- Kansas,
Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota and Iowa. And while
that's not the lone reason for the shrinking population,
Eathington confirms it's a contributing factor.

"It's related [to the population decline], but I
wouldn't say it's causal," Eathington said.
"The fact that we have more of an agricultural base -- and
by definition, more rural space -- means there's already
fewer job opportunities in those areas. Agricultural production
requires less labor than it used to, and these ag-dependent
areas are still adjusting to those changes."

Eathington wrote that while individual state and local
development strategies are unlikely to reverse the region's
most dominant urbanization trends, understanding Iowa's
experience in a broader, regional context may help
policy-makers and planners better respond to the state's
changing demographic landscape.

"There are probably a dozen or so things to help on the
margins, but the real purpose of my report -- and the reason I
chose to look at a Midwestern view, not an Iowa view -- is to
help temper expectations in non-metro areas about what can be
done," Eathington said. "It's bigger than Iowa
and bigger than a single community.

"And in the long run, this knowledge can have some value
if people start a development initiative and their expectations
aren't too high," she said. "So if they don't
see the payoff right away, they may be less likely to be
disappointed and give up. If they have more reasonable
expectations, they may stick with it longer and be more pleased
with the outcomes."

The projected release of the 2010 U.S. Census data will begin
next summer.

Quote

"I thought our [Iowa's] pattern was similar to Kansas,
North Dakota, and to some of extent, Nebraska. States on the
western edge of the region are experiencing different degrees
of population decline, but similar patterns. The metro areas
are really the pull and may be contributing to some of the
drain in the non-metro areas."