Stewart Mandel’s Week 3 college football picks against the spread

Every Thursday during the college football season, I'll be picking the 10 best games of the week against the spread, plus one upset special. Here are my picks for Week 3.

Last week ATS: 6-5

Season: 15-7

Houston (-7.5) at Cincinnati (Thursday)

Cincinnati ran the ball well and notched five INTs in last week’s win at Purdue. Houston has a stout run defense, and Greg Ward Jr. won’t throw five picks.

Pick: Houston 31, Cincinnati 20 | Tickets

Getty ImagesThomas B. Shea

Ohio State at Oklahoma (+1.5)

Ohio State’s defense could not have looked better against Bowling Green and Tulsa, but this is the first road game in a hostile atmosphere for a lot of inexperienced players. Bob Stoops is 97-8 at home. Oklahoma bounces back from the Houston loss.

Pick: Oklahoma 27, Ohio State 24 (Saturday, 7 ET on FOX) | Tickets

Alabama (-11) at Ole Miss

Game-turning defensive plays keyed Ole Miss’ 2014 and ’15 upsets of Alabama. The Rebels’ 45-34 loss to Florida State did not inspire much confidence that this year’s inexperienced secondary can do the same.

Pick: Alabama 34, Ole Miss 17 | Tickets

Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY SportsMarvin Gentry

Florida State (-2) at Louisville

FSU will surely miss injured S Derwin James, but its D-line should dominate Louisville’s O-line, which should help cut down on Cardinals star Lamar Jackson’s big plays. ‘Noles QB Deondre Francois may himself have a big day.

Pick: Florida State 36, Louisville 28 | Tickets

Getty ImagesDon Juan Moore

Michigan State (+7.5) at Notre Dame

Texas exposed an inexperienced Irish defense that may struggle to rush the passer this season. But Michigan State might not be able to exploit that.

Pick: Notre Dame 26, Michigan State 20 | Tickets

USC at Stanford (-8.5)

USC will test Stanford’s secondary in a way Kansas State couldn’t and may notch some big plays, but the Trojans have no answer for Christian McCaffrey.