2017 federal redistribution in Queensland - Major Party Submissions

On Friday the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) will release draft electoral boundaries for Queensland's 30 electorates in the House of Representatives.

The redistribution has been triggered under the seven-year rule, Queensland's current boundaries having been in place since 2009 and used for three elections.

Unlike redistributions in Victoria, South Australia and the ACT, Queensland's redistribution does not involve a change in seat numbers.

As a result, the Queensland redistribution is likely to be incremental rather than radical, minor changes of boundaries adopted to bring electorates back within the permitted variation from the state average.

Queensland's current federal electoral boundaries have been in place longer than any set of boundaries in the state since the 1980s.

Queensland had 24 electorates at the 1990 federal election, but gained an extra seat and underwent a redistribution at six of the next seven elections. Queensland reached 30 seats at the 2010 election when the current boundaries were first used.

The LNP currently holds 21 seats in Queensland to Labor's eight, the final seat held by Bob Katter.

Four of Labor's eight seats are held by margins under 5 per cent, as are eight of the LNP's seats.

With so many marginal seats, the re-drawing of electoral boundaries has implications for many of the state's sitting members.

And with Queensland seats making up more than a quarter of the Turnbull Government's numbers in the House of Representatives, the redistribution's implications for the next federal election are important.

The two major parties have adopted different approaches in their submissions to the Redistribution Committee.

The Labor Party has chosen to disturb as few boundaries as possible, with the exception of a significant re-alignment of the boundaries for the marginal LNP seat of Forde.

The major feature of the LNP submission is a re-arrangement of the northern seats of Kennedy and Leichhardt, with knock-on implications for the marginal seats of Capricornia and Herbert further south.

As the map of current boundaries on the right shows, Leichhardt currently takes in Cairns, Douglas Shire to the north, plus Cape York and the Torres Strait islands. Kennedy covers the western parts of north Queensland and the coast between Townsville and Cairns.

To keep Kennedy within quota, redistributions have traditionally lopped off southern suburbs of Cairns and transferred them from Leichhardt to Kennedy.

Submissions from Labor, Bob Katter and many others, have suggested a continuation of this approach. They propose the southern Cairns suburb of Bentley Park be transferred from Leichhardt to Kennedy, with the electorates otherwise unchanged.

The LNP has suggested a complete rearrangement of north Queensland. Douglas Shire, Cape York and Torres Strait would be transferred to Kennedy, while all of the southern Cairns suburbs currently in Kennedy are transferred to Leichhardt. This makes Leichhardt almost entirely urban, like the Townsville-based seat of Herbert further south.

The LNP's proposed changes have only minor impact on the two-party preferred margins for Kennedy and Leichhardt, but they generate consequential changes to marginal seats further south.

Where Labor proposes no changes to Herbert, currently held by Labor's Cathy O'Toole with the tiny margin of 0.02 per cent, the LNP changes further north flow through to Herbert. On the boundaries proposed by the LNP, Herbert moves north and would become a notional LNP seat with a margin of around 0.3 per cent.

The LNP changes also allow room for the mining town of Collinsville to be transferred from Capricornia to Kennedy. The LNP's Michelle Landry currently holds Capricornia with a margin of 0.6 per cent, and the LNP submission would give her margin a small lift to 0.8 per cent.

The LNP also suggests a range of changes to the very safe LNP seat of Maranoa that contract it southward, making room for marginal Flynn to stretch all the way to the Northern Territory border.

Flynn is currently held by the LNP's Ken O'Dowd with a margin of 1.0 per cent. It is a very mixed seat, based on the industrial city of Gladstone but including significant rural areas to the west. The new boundaries increase the seat's rural component, boosting the LNP margin to around 2 per cent.

The map below from the LNP submission shows the rather distended boundary of its suggested Flynn, stretching west to the Northern Territory border, taking in Blackall, Tambo, Barcaldine, Winton and Longreach from Maranoa, and Boulia Shire from Kennedy. (The red lines are the old boundaries crossed by the suggested Flynn.)

Labor proposes only minor changes to Flynn that have no impact on its margin. Labor also proposes few changes to either Hinkler or Wide Bay where the LNP makes a range of suggested changes flowing from its suggested re-arrangement of Flynn and Maranoa.

Changes on the Sunshine Coast north of Brisbane are largely incremental. The current boundaries are shown right.

The interest in the region is Dickson, held by Minister for Immigration and Border Protection Peter Dutton by 1.6 per cent. Voters need to be added to Dickson to keep it within the state quota, and understandably the LNP has suggested changes that benefit Mr Dutton.

The south-eastern boundary of Dickson runs along the council boundary between Brisbane City Council and Moreton Bay Regional Council. To the east of this boundary lie some of Brisbane's best Liberal voting booths in McDowall and Bridgeman Downs.

Labor has proposed a small change to this boundary, adding parts of Bridgeman Downs currently in Lilley to Dickson, putting Dickson back within quota but having little impact on the LNP's margin in Dickson.

The LNP has gone for more substantial change, moving electors from Brisbane to Lilley and freeing up more electors for moving from Lilley to Dickson. The LNP suggests to move parts of McDowall and Aspley to Dickson in addition to Bridgeman Downs.

Moving this many electors leaves room to adjust the northern boundary of Dickson as well. The LNP submission suggests adjusting the boundary between Dickson and Longman, moving some strong Labor voting areas around Kallangur out of Dickson.

The LNP's proposal for Dickson boosts Peter Dutton's margin from 1.6 per cent to an estimated 2.9 per cent. They also boost the Labor margin in Longman from 0.8 per cent to 1.7 per cent.

There are few significant suggested changes south of the Brisbane River other than the different approaches adopted by the Labor and LNP submissions concerning the electorate of Forde.

Forde currently covers part of Logan City south of Brisbane, and also northern parts of the Gold Coast west of the Pacific Motorway. It is held by the LNP's Bert van Manen with the narrow margin of 0.6 per cent.

The LNP proposes to move Liberal voting areas east of the motorway from Fadden to Forde and move a Labor voting pocket in Marsden to the safe Labor seat of Rankin. These changes would boost the LNP margin from Forde from 0.6 per cent to 1.5 per cent.

Labor's proposal is a more significant rearrangement. Labor suggests the Gold Coast City Council areas be transferred to the safe LNP seat of Wright, replaced by the transfer of Logan City areas south to Jimboomba from Wright to Forde.

On Labor's submission, Forde would become a notional Labor seat with a margin of 0.5 per cent.

Whether the redistribution commissioners follow either submission will be revealed when the draft boundaries are released for public comment on Friday.