2018 Sleeper College Football Teams

It happened again. After doing a study last year about characteristics of college football teams going from unranked to the top ten, the theory proved true again. The 2017 study can be found here. Every year there are around three teams who go from unranked to the top ten. Here are the history of teams that fit that criteria since 2010:

Both Georgia and TCU fit the criteria to perfection and we actually guessed Georgia as one of the three teams to make the top ten. UCF is different since the criteria only applies to Power 5 teams. But, we have found a formula to track down potential Power 5 sleeper teams. It is a combination of two key areas, recruiting rankings and returning starters. And now… I give you the rules:

Rule 1- Four year recruiting average must be less than 60

Rule 2- Recruiting ranking of less than 35 for the senior class or the senior class ranking must be the highest of the four classes. If neither are the case, must have at least one top 30 class in the last four years.

Rule 3- Must have at least 13 total starters returning

The criteria cut the list from 44 unranked Power 5 teams last year to just 12. So without any more delay here are the 12 teams that statistically can go from unranked to the top ten this season ranked by recruiting rankings:

Texas

Texas A&M

Florida

Michigan

Oregon

South Carolina

Arkansas

Kentucky

Missouri

Arizona

Texas Tech

Georgia Tech

Now that we have the list here’s my three picks to make a run at the top ten:

1. Oregon Ducks

Not only do I have Oregon making the top ten, I think there’s a legitimate possibility of them making the College Football Playoffs. Justin Herbert is a stud and was 5-1 as a starter last year. Returning 14 starters and having a 18 four-year recruiting average, the Ducks are a prime candidate to make the top ten.

2. Michigan Wolverines

This one kind of surprised me. Jim Harbaugh has struggled to find legitimate success at Michigan, but with 8 returning starters on defense, the defense is loaded. If Shea Patterson can just improve the offense moderately Michigan has a legitimate shot at finishing in the top ten.

3. Arizona Wildcats

My final pick is a little out there. They have the most returning starters out of anyone on the list with 17, a new head coach Kevin Sumlin, and one of the most dynamic quarterbacks out there with Khalil Tate. They have a lower recruiting ranking, but this is a team that could surprise in a weak Pac-12 South division.