EUR/USD – Limited Movement in Holiday Trading

EUR/USD is showing little movement on Thursday, as the pair trades in the mid-1.24 range. US markets are closed for Thanksgiving, so traders can expect thin trading during the day. On the release front, German Unemployment Change beat expectations with a reading of -14 thousand. Spanish CPI declined by 0.4%. Later in the day, Germany releases Preliminary CPI, a key event which could affect the movement of EUR/USD. The markets are anticipating a flat reading of 0.0%.

German indicators continue to point upwards. Unemployment Change came in at 14 thousand, much stronger than the estimate of -1K. Ifo Business Climate rose to 104.7 points in November. Importantly, this reading snapped a streak of six straight declines. ZEW Economic Sentiment jumped 11.5 points, crushing the estimate of 0.9 points. This strong optimism is somewhat puzzling, given that inflation and growth levels in the Eurozone’s largest economy remain weak. At the same time, increasing confidence in the German economy could translate into stronger German numbers, which would help boost the ailing Eurozone.

The US released a host of key data on Wednesday and the numbers were weak across-the-board. Unemployment Claims jumped to 313 thousand, its highest level since mid-September. Core Durable Goods Orders declined 0.9%, its third decline in four readings. The estimate stood at 0.5%. New Home Sales fell to a 3-month low, dropping to 458 thousand. This was short of the estimate of 471 thousand. Pending Home Sales was no better, declining by 1.1%, well off the estimate of 0.9%. There was better news from UoM Consumer Sentiment, which posted a fourth straight gain, rising to 88.8 points. However, this was short of the estimate of 90.2 points. Despite the disappointing numbers, the euro was unable to make inroads against the dollar.

EUR/USD for Thursday, November 27, 2014

EUR/USD November 27 10:15 GMT

EUR/USD 1.2474 H: 1.2525 L: 1.2465

EUR/USD Technical

S1

S2

S1

R1

R2

R3

1.2143

1.2286

1.2407

1.2518

1.2688

1.2806

EUR/USD was flat in the Asian session. The pair has posted slight losses in European trade.

1.2518 is a weak resistance line. 1.2688 is stronger.

1.2407 is an immediate support level.

Current range: 1.2407 to 1.2518

Further levels in both directions:

Below: 1.2407, 1.2286, 1.2143 and 1.2042

Above: 1.2518, 1.2688, 1.2806, 1.2905 and 1.2995

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

EUR/USD ratio is pointing to gains in short positions on Thursday. This is consistent with the pair’s movement, as the euro has posted small losses. The pair has a majority of short positions, indicative of trader bias towards the dollar moving higher.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

All Day – German Preliminary CPI. Estimate 0.0%.

8:00 Spanish Flash CPI. Estimate -0.3%. Actual -0.4%.

8:55 German Unemployment Change. Estimate -1K. Actual -14K..

9:00 Eurozone M3 Money Supply. Estimate 2.6%. Actual 2.5%.

9:00 Eurozone Private Loans. Estimate -1.0%. Actual -1.1%.

All Day – OPEC Meetings.

Tentative – Italian 10-year Bond Auction.

Tentative – Spanish HPI.

11:30 ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks.

12:00 GfK German Consumer Climate. Estimate 8.6 points.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold.

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.

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