Posted by jhsukow on 6/19/2013 7:36:00 PM (view original):Just so we are all clear, I'm no rookie. I've played over 88 seasons. Having said that, I'm going to have SUCH a disgrace of a team that next ODL Wilt will be out ofthe top 5, and Stockton will be a 3rd rounder. I just can't stop myself. <20 win season. This must be how the Captain of the Titanic felt...

(pasted from earlier so it doesn't get lost) Updated draft picks are in bold within the paragraphs.

98average - LeBron James, Tracy McGrady, Wes Unseld

Can't argue against the King. The 12-13 season would be the best in the sim if it had more minutes... and it might still be anyway. Other seasons are quality as well, but that 12-13 season is just insane. Nobody except shaq brings that kind of offensive efficiency (shooting & turnovers) in the sim, and Lebron brings it all in the backcourt while helping others get better & a rebounding advantage that the Big Fella doesn't bring.There's a special place for Tmac in these leagues... and it's not on a team with Lebron. While the duo will still be very formidable, I just don't like to think that in crunch time, my 60% efg guy will be far less likely to take the shot than a just-above-50% guy. Still, lots of boards in the back court. Good dimes. Good defense. Unseld brings the usual need up front. I like the squad... I just really wish you'd went with someone who had less usage than James to pair with him in the back court.

2. jhsukow - Wilt Chamberlain, John Stockton

With the right owner & right supporting pieces, 66-67 Wilt teams should almost be unstoppable. I have yet to see it in an ODL, however. I've seen it done right in the funk52, however. If using the 68-69 or 71-72 versions, you should have taken someone else (moses). If using the 65-66 season, you should have taken Kareem. None of the other seasons are elite in a non-progressive setting. Okay... Stockton + Wilt is frightening. My only concern is only having 4 usage points with $20M already spent.

3. mikee1 - Dennis Rodman, Chauncey Billups, Kevin Love

I still think the Worm is the highest value in the sim, as nobody gives you what he gives you. It's a challenge to build around him in this league, though, or more people would win with him. It's pretty unthinkable to take a full support player this early, but I still hold to the opinion that his value is top 5 worthy. Give me Worm & I'll walk away with the ring. Mr. Big Shot is always a good choice for possession control... depending on the version used, the guy can be one of the least turnover prone point guards in the sim. Gets to the line a ton & shoots a ton of threes. His 2pt%# is what kills him. I still think he's a championship point guard with the right team (I won many 'ships with him in my early sim days, but never in a draft league). The possession control he gives you in combination with Worm & Love is tremendous. Love gives you so many boards, a superior number of threes for all the other little things he brings, and a fantastic ability to get to the line & make 'em while in the game. He, like Chauncey, has a mediocre efg% because of his two-point shooting, but I really dig the possession control vibe you've got going.

4. skypilot - Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Bob Lanier, Clyde Drexler

3500 minutes of tier 2 usage at 57% efg? Yes, please. Note: I won the ODL recently with the Captain. It should be pretty easy to see why.But it wasn't by pairing him with a mediocre efg%, high usg%, mediocre rebounder in Lanier. Overrated here. This is why I hate when I see someone that really doesn't know what they are talking about being so incredibly vocal... they influence people in the wrong way. Lanier is at best a 4th rounder for a team that loaded up on usage & rebounds in the back court (like tarheel's bird/ginobili pair). Remember: every shot Lanier takes at his mediocre fg% is a shot that Kareem isn't taking at his 57%+. That said, I like Drexler here. I almost took him in round 2 and had him tops on my list for round 3. While he also has a mediocre efg%, he gives you boards, assists, threes & defense at the 2 and is an excellent compliment to the Captain from the outside. A team built around the 2 of them with a couple of tier 4 usage guys & a low usage specialist would be extremely competitive. I feel like Lanier takes this squad down to being merely battling for playoff contention. It is early yet.FYI: my Kareem 'ship team here's first 3 picks were Kareem, Camby, Porter.

5. cmcafeeky - Michael Jordan, Dikembe Mutombo, Shawn Kemp

This feels about right for Jordan now. Lebron (in the sim) is clearly better in all areas except tov% (but when you factor in assists, it becomes a close race there as well), but he's the only guard you can say this about. I feel like building around Jordan is more of a challenge than building around bigs, but his value, to me, is top 5. Mutombo is either an elite defender with slightly above average boards or an elite rebounder with above average defense. Depending on who else you get, it can change which you use. I like the pick, though. Kemp... wow. Great front court option for Jordan. I really feel like you can screw the pooch by using the wrong Mutombo & wrong Kemp... but if you pick the right versions, this is a really, really good start!

6. ashamael - Moses Malone, Terry Porter, Carlos Boozer

Moses used to be the unanimous #1 pick in this league season after season. It's easy to see why: 44% crb (an absurd 18% on the offensive side), almost 55% efg at tier 3 usage, lots of ftas at a decent make percentage, not many fouls... all for 3300+ minutes. Lots of turnovers doesn't detract from his value. I value Howard here more per minute, but Moses has a lot more minutes to use. While that means he costs more, it also means I get to use him almost the entire game in the playoffs, which is a boon to me. There's only one guy in the sim with 20+ ast%, 55+ efg%, 17.5+ usg% & lower tov% than Porter, and he went first in this draft. Porter also isn't a defensive liability with his 60. Only one guy I like better overall than Porter for this role, but I've used him a lot recently and wanted to get someone with less turnovers since I have Moses already. Boozer gives me more solid efg (56) at tier 3 usage and 40 creb to pair with Moses for board superiority.Also gives me 10+ ast%, which was something I was really looking for since Porter is kind of average in the ast% dept (26). He & Moses are flipside defenders, so I feel pretty good against most teams' front lines (not too many teams are going to have a scary 4 & 5 in this league, but a couple will... maybe). In addtion, I'm working on a theory about something that I think it might end up being pretty major in the way we build offenses. I'll tell more later, as it will reveal more than I care to at the moment.

7. seapilots - Karl Malone, Robert Parish, James Harden

3100+ minutes of almost 57% efg at tier 1 usage with a metric ****-ton of ftas at a decent make-rate. Yes, please. Should be noted that I won the ODL recently with the Mailman (the version I just mentioned). The 96-97 version is often used, and is good, but I feel the 89-90 version is superior in this particular league. You almost can't go wrong with either, however. Very easy to build around.Parish gives you some much needed offensive boards, good efg% at a reasonable usage and he & Mailman can flip/defend each other's man. Very nice pick there. I think you needed more boards overall, but Parish was still excellent, man. Harden was a very nice outside compliment to Malone. Gives you a ton of good and very little bad. High foul teams are going to loathe playing you... Excellent start.

8. smokey57 - Kevin Durant, Willis Reed, Rajon Rondo

Clearly a top 10 value now that his 12-13 season has come out. Gives you an edge in all 3 facets of the game (possession, shooting & fouls). If it wasn't just flat easier to build around big men, I'd say he's a top 5 value. He gives you better boards (in regard to position) than Kareem or Shaq, gets to the line as much as anybody and makes them at a ridiculous rate. Almost a 56% efg at tier 2 usage with many of those being 3s... the guy is a stud all around.Reed is a reach here. Again, he brings you a lot of mediocrity when you could have complimented Durant with much better. There were many better options at PG still available, including a guy who is almost just like Rondo only better in every facet. Durant deserves better.

9. banditone - David Robinson, Bobby Jones, Stephen Curry

I'm not the fan of the admiral that many people are. People keep saying "his boards..." but his boards are only 12 & 23. That's not elite. That's certainly not better than Howard. "...and his 55% efg" is not better than Howard or Shaq or Chuck. His 100 defense is nice, though. 55/100 vs 60/90... I'm taking the 60/90 (efg/def). His turnovers are way better than Howard's, though, so there is that. All told, can't diss the pick... just expressing that I'm just not as huge a fan of him as many others seem to be (I've never won anything with him in any league variant, which is saying something). Jones is always a top notch small forward. Decent boards, great fg%, great defense. He is an excellent compliment to the Admiral. Ah, Curry... Yes! Great outside to your excellent inside game. Love your start, dude!

10. Tarheel1991 - Larry Bird, Manu Ginobili, Larry Nance

Nothing not to like about this pick, as long as he's playing the 2 (or you do a crazy ast% thing, in which case he can do the 3 or 4 fine). Good efg% at tier 2 usage, a few threes, helps everyone shoot better, moderate defense, crazy good tov% when factoring in all of the assists he gives... definitely a top 15 value in my mind, so taking him at 10 is realistically good.Love Ginobili here. I anticipate him playing PG & Bird at SG. So much good about that combo that I can't even begin to say how much I like it! Adding Nance to the mix... incredibly efficient on the offensive end & a defensive stalwart. With the board advantage you've gained in the back court, he isn't going to hurt you on the boards at all.

11. krishnaman - Dwight Howard, Tyson Chandler, Brent Barry

Great value in getting Howard here. The 10-11 is idea for building a team around, and the 07-08 is a wonderful compliment season if you get someone with high usage later on. The 09-10 season is another good compliment season. Good defense, fantastic efg% at a tier 3 (or tier 2 if you go 10-11), elite rebounding - THIS is what I strive for in the first round of the ODL. If you can get this outside of the top 10, you're ahead of the game. Fantastic pick. Should be pointed out that I've won the ODL with Howard. Twice, actually. Chandler solidifies your board advantage up front, gives you more good defense & some more reliable field goals, albeit at a low rate. For 30 minutes a game, your front line is scary as hell. Great start.Barry was a killer pickup. You have tremendously high efg% all around at the moment. Barry gives you good boards & dimes in the back court. 63 defense is not a liability. You need some other guys to take some shots with your other picks, but I absolutely love what you've got going here.

12. natenoy - Shaquille O'Neal, Ray Allen, Deron Williams

Pretty much what I just said is repeatable here. Rebounding isn't as good but the turnovers are WAAAAAY down (both being possession stats, you see that one sort of washes out the disadvantage of the other). Shaq is one of the most efficient high usage scorers there is. His 94-95 season has only a 9.0% tov% (good luck finding even CLOSE to that in tier 2 or above usage at 57%+ efg). His 93-94 season has lots of minutes. His 99-00 season has great defense and the least fouls. His 00-01 season gets to the line more per minute than just about anybody else you want to talk about. Lots of good choices here and is extremely easy to build around. Shuttlesworth makes this probably the best inside-out combination this league will see. It'll win a ton of games, and luckily you won't ruin this like someone ruined the combo in the funk52. Lovin' it.D-Will: As I said, I almost took this guy instead of Boozer to form a high octane ast% back court. The guy gives you a ton of good and fits right in with Shaq & Allen. He'll feed the ball well, give you a few threes, overall 54% efg at point guard is pretty nice... and he & Allen are flipside defenders. I dig it. Looking for specialists the rest of the way, as your usage is either at 14 or 16 already, depending on which Allen you use.

13. slymonium - Charles Barkley, Marcus Camby

60% efg at tier 3 usage for 40mpg; almost 35% creb at the small forward position, gets to the line like nobody else & makes them while there. 56 defense is not horrible, especially in this league. I once told the ODL that Chuck was the best player in the sim and should be taken #1. People scoffed. I won two championships with him... and then people started taking him #1. He's not #1 anymore (he wasn't even really back then) but he's still a top 10 value for sure... and sly getting him at 13 is painful (for the entire league). Sly has won rings with Chuck before and knows how to build around the guy. Scary.Camby brings more boards & good defense to the fray. Helps Chuck shoot better. Doesn't turn the ball over. Doesn't foul. As I said, Sly knows how to build around Chuck. If you aren't scared yet, get that way.

14. steelers821 - Tim Duncan, Elton Brand

I don't think this is the reach that others do. Tier 2 usage, 54% efg, top notch boards & great D... yes, please. Has another season with more minutes & less boards to use, too. He doesn't help you win in the foul factor, though, so he might not be a top 15 guy. But I feel like he's a top 15 to 20 value, so I can't fault you for this. Brand's another guy with that whole meh efg%/high defense. When it's the best you can get, I understand that, but when there are guys out there with better, I don't understand the mentality. Still.. gives you good boards at the 3. Just not feeling very frightened of this squad.

15. tanguma44 - Chris Paul, Donyell Marshall

I'm still not huge on cp3 as a guy you build your team around. He gives you few negatives & quite a few positives, but I'm still not sold on him as the centerpiece. Lots of guys have won with him, however. Once upon a time I was a huge Marshall fan. Not so much anymore. He is a lot like Paul to me... not many negatives, just not that overwhelming "THIS IS MY GUY" feeling. Ireally feel like this was the time to get the dude Paul was to compliment, not a role player.

16. iccoachb - Oscar Robertson, Hakeem Olajuwon

I like Oscar more than cp3. More minutes, better boards, better efg%, better fta/poss... things I care more about than the ast% & tov%. Have to use the 54+% efg season, however, or I don't like the pick at all. Oscar deserves better than Olajuwon.I've broken the dream down enough in the past... at least nobody wasted a 1st on him this time.

17. badja - Artis Gilmore, Penny Hardaway

Thievery in motion. Should have gone before Duncan. His 3rd tier usage, 58% efg%, 39% creb season is no joke. His 4th tier, 56% efg%, 40%+ one is also not a joke. Penny combined with either of these is serious business. I really, really, really like your start, badja.Scary offense, good possession control, good defense. Scariest combination by far in the league thus far.

18. malone9975 - Dwyane Wade, Tom Boerwinkle

I've always wanted to build around this guy's 08-09 season but have never had the cojones to pull the trigger. He brings a lot of good. Should be able to build a solid possession control/shooting control team with him, but I never see anyone do it right (dh came close, it seems like). I like the Boerwinkle pick because it leads me to believe you're using Wade at the 1. His short minutes are the only downer in an otherwise solid pick that really fits well with Wade(great boards, decent d, the lower minutes actually help you financially...). I'm interested to see how you treat Wade in later rounds.

19. theyard2 - Ben Wallace, Jerry Lucas

If you're not getting one of the top 7 or 8 efg% monsters to build around, I like building around a defensive/rebounding specialist like Wallace (see: my funk52 team). Really would like to have seen you steer towards an offensive player here in round 2 instead of a guy like Lucas. Lucas is solid, don't get me wrong, but you've drafted 2 guys and have 1.5 usage points. Most of the high efg% guys will be gone before you get a chance to grab them (those with few weaknesses, anyway).You've got good support, but I feel like waiting till round 3 to grab your first scorer is bad news.

20. felonius - Julius Erving, Mookie Blaylock, Mel Daniels

I still don't think he belongs in round 1 despite a plethora of good numbers in important areas. If you could somehow combine his 81-82 offensive efficiency with his earlier 70s seasons' minutes/boards, he'd be a freaking stud. But you can't, so he's either a mediocre shooting, high volume guy or a limited minutes, decent efg% guy that gives you zero 3s. He doesn't belong in round 1. Prove me wrong, primate man.I don't like Mookie. On paper, he gives you so much good, but I just feel like he has shot me out of too many games to really ever consider using him again in a non-restrictive atmosphere. Daniels was a great value for where you got him, but I really just don't like this team at all. But hey - I usually like your teams and WIS poops all over them, so maybe this will be a good thing.

21. eleibowitz - Bill Russell, Shawn Marion

Anytime you can get 3570 minutes of 44% creb, 70 def at 100% pf/c at pick 21, you've got a good steal. See: what I said about Big Ben, only add 700 minutes. I love the Matrix here. Boards are a little crappy for a 4 where he's 100%, but he works well at 98% for a 3. I might look at a flex forward so you could perhaps get that extra 2% out of Matrix by starting him at the 4, but you have a ton of flexibility going forth. The guys after you have 52-53% efg% with good defense. You have 56% with good defense. I'll take the latter over the former (bill's only a tier 5 usage guy, so I'm not worried about him hurting you offensively much).

22. coachcroft - Kevin Garnett, Scottie Pippen

Still not a fan of Garnett. Someone needs to win it all with him in this league to change my mind, otherwise, he's one of these guys that is a great value on paper but doesn't translate to ultimate success. Pippen added to the mix is reminiscent of my opinion on Vance's squad: efg% very meh. Great defensively, though, and great assists, good on the boards. Tad had a ton of success with this combo, so that shows you what I know. I still don't care for mediocre efg%/high defense guys when there are high efg%, high def guys still available.

23. vancem - Magic Johnson, Bill Walton

Frightening to think you got Magic here. Only concern is that his best overall season is only 52% efg%. I like his 56.5% efg season a lot, but only at SF in a high ast% theme. Walton was the reach of all reaches in my mind, but you can't get a guy like him by the time you would have gotten to pick again in round 3. So far, your efg% is very meh to me.I don't feel scared of your squad. Yet.

24. dh555 - Jason Kidd, Kevin McHale

Love Kidd, especially on the turn. Don't have to explain why. Then combining him with McHale... yes. Really interested to see how you shore up the board shortage sine you've said you're going to play McHale at the 4. Extremely efficient combo, both offensively & defensively.You're set up really well to excel at the next turn, too.

Man, when you guys quote him I see the post. Ugh. Nobody is underestimating defense. It's one factor in the shooting struggle, which is 2/5 of the game IMO. One factor. Other factors include fg%, efg%, ast%, usg% & by-zone-scoring. And that's just to accommodate 2/5 of the game (Possession Battle is another 2/5, with Foul Factor contributing about 1/5). Getting tunnel vision on any one facet, whether it be defense, rebounding, ftas or even efg%, will lead to a severe lack of rings. I once upon a time had tunnel vision on rebounds. I've recently had it on efg%.

And 90 defense Kareem? Oh boy. I couldn't have said the truth any clearer in my commentary on skypilot's team. I know he might be a RL friend of smokey's, but he seriously needs to quit listening to him.

I don't know which year sky will use, so give up the nonsense on which year Jabbar gets used. What does he drop to a def 84. Ash you seem to be reluctantly adjusting your defense and I agree with most the points your post makes. I have more than enough data to prove FG%/eFG% is negotiable and can be bought, w/o penalty, with dimes. If you want to run uptempo, usage in this is clearly critical. I think owners in general underestimate the liabilty that a sub 50def starter brings to a team. I don't think an examination of my team design supports a claim of tunnel vision, I without a doubt think defense wins basketball games.

Nate, I read your post on the Robinson/Jones pairing and was interested in your comments on ultra high defense. Your take is correct, defense for the most part brings it's ugly cousin PF's, also high ast brings it's evil twin TO's. I have 2 def90 and a def78, one def90 is PG and one C this is exactly what I want. Now I can utilize anything from a def65-80, targeting for def70's. I can also tolerate a +50def if they have a particular skill I require. Currently I've been overloading ast, not because I think it's the best plan but simple because it's a good way to examine the effect. I've missed getting minimum broards a number of times as a result. Now that I have a firm grasp on how ast interact with FG% and combat defense I will moderate my ast to a amount I've determined to be a correct balance. Ultra high anything is at best poorly spent $$$ in a tight salery cap league. btw - thanks to you & van for the draft eval's.