By Hugh Wilson

0

Apr 3, 2013 10:13:00

Back the home side to continue their fantastic form at La Rosaleda, with Hugh Wilson picking out a 16/5 value bet

Malaga host Borussia Dortmund in the quarter-finals of the Champions League and both will feel they can progress in the competition. The two sides, who have never met before, have impressed pundits all over Europe recording some fantastic results to reach this stage.

Malaga recovered from a first leg deficit to beat Porto 2-1 on aggregate in the last 16, winning 2-0 in south Spain to continue their fantastic home form in Europe, which has seen them win four matches and draw once. Despite this unbeaten record at home, Manuel Pellegrini’s side are 12/5 (3.40) with William Hill to gain an early advantage in this tie.

Dortmund have also been extremely impressive in this year's competition. The Germans are unbeaten throughout the campaign, beating the likes of Real Madrid, Manchester City and Shakhtar Donetsk at home.

However, Jurgen Klopp’s men have only won away from home once this term, that victory coming against Ajax in the group stages.

Despite this, William Hill price them as favourites at 6/5 (2.20). The same firm offer the stalemate at 11/5 (3.20).

With Pellegrini’s side being so dominant at home, 12/5 (3.40) seems like a long price for the Spaniards, however, a safer bet for me is Malaga/Draw double chance at 4/6 (1.67) with William Hill. This seems to be a decent price considering the Liga side are yet to be beaten at home, with only Anderlecht drawing at La Rosaleda, thanks to an 89th minute equaliser.

Looking at the goalscorer market, Dortmund hotshot Robert Lewandowski is a cool 7/2 (4.50) to open the scoring. With 10 goals in his last 10 competitive games, it’s tough to ignore, but the Poland international has failed to score first in his last five Champions League matches, so it could be wise to avoid this price.

For those looking for value, total team goals stands out. Malaga have not been shy in front of goal this season, with 10 in five Champions League home games.

Pellegrini’s men have scored twice in three of those matches, and for them to repeat this feat, William Hill price them at 16/5 (4.20).