Standalone Blog Pages

October 2, 2012

Romney Suggests That Greece Acquire & Merge With The State Of California

Analysis: Romney must win the state of California to have a shot at winning the presidency. California voters detest Romney. Romney's solution? Sell California and their fiscal problems to Greece for a buck.

By Roy Steele

It’s hard to believe that it’s October 2012, and the election is a month away.

Where did the summer go?Willard Mitt Romney takes every opportunity he can to criticize Greece’s financial problems, and often compares their woes to the finances of the state of California. He dislikes this state so much -- that he owns a beachfront estate in La Jolla -- near San Diego, in addition to his homes in New Hampshire and Massachusetts. The Republican candidate is poised to lose all three states where he owns a home. Has that ever happened before?California may be experiencing a fiscal crisis in state government, but it is still rich in electoral votes with 55. Those 55 electoral votes have had Barack Obama’s name on them since he won the 2008 election. At the starting gate, Obama knew that he had 55 electoral votes from California, and 20 electoral votes from his home state of Illinois, giving him a 75 point advantage. Right at the start, he had 20% of the total needed to reach 270.How many electoral votes was Romney assured of? His home state of Massachusetts has 11 electoral votes, and the state of New Hampshire has 4 electoral votes, where his vacation home is located. Romney isn’t very popular in his home state(s), so he started with zero. Ouch. While my headline is admittedly a little tongue in cheek, though I have no doubt that If Romney could engineer a leveraged buyout and transfer the ownership title for the state of California, to a European country or foreign entity, that he would do that in a heartbeat.The electoral college is Romney’s biggest hurdle to winning the November 2012 election. Romney could win the majority of the popular vote, and he would still lose the election.

Obama or Romney - Who’s Gonna Win?

When the party primaries were over last spring, political pundits identified Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin, Missouri, Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida as swing states. The implication was that voters in these 15 states, with 179 electoral votes, were undecided - so each state was in play. Logically one would think that the candidates would focus their efforts on those crucial states, because either candidate could win those electoral votes, and the presidency

Bear in mind that President Obama won each of those states on his path to victory in the 2008 election. If likely voters are unhappy with the president and his job performance in 2012, conventional wisdom would hold that Obama would lose the election and be out of a job in January 2013.

I took three different scenarios and played around with the electoral college numbers to see who has the best chance to win. Based on current pollling - what do the numbers tell us today?

The Swing States - Electoral College Map # 1

The electoral college map above shows you the swing states, and represents where things stand currently, with 110 electoral votes unallocated.. While I’m giving Romney a break here in a couple states, you can see the swing states clearly. It’s for you to use as a reference, and for comparison purposes.

Current independent polling of likely voters reflects a different picture. Both candidates have been out on the campaign trail engaging voters. Romney is leading Obama in Arizona, Missouri, and Indiana with their 28 electoral votes. Obama leads Romney in New Mexico, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Virginia, and Florida with 121 electoral votes. Nevada, Colorado, and North Carolina are too close to call with 30 electoral votes.

At this point it’s looking more and more like this election is trending Obama’s way. If Obama’s message continues to resonate with voters, and he performs well in the televised debates, he’ll get four more years in the oval office.

Scenario One: Electoral College Map # 2

I took all of the swing states and awarded the states to the candidate who I thought might win on election day. Even though I don’t think Romney will win all of the electoral college votes I awarded him, I’ve done that to make the race more competitive than it really is. Yes it’s all conjecture and I’m making this shit up to illustrate where things stand. If anything - I’ve been too generous with Romney and Obama should win more states. This iteration of the map awards electoral votes as follows:Romney Wins: Arizona, Nevada, Colorado, Missouri, Indiana, North CarolinaObama: Wins New Mexico, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Virginia, FloridaObama: 317 WinnerRomney: 221

Scenario Two: Electoral College Map #3

Pollsters have gotten better over time, though it’s impossible to be right 100% of the time. I thought let’s mix things up a little and make the race more competitive. What if crazy Florida worked overtime to keep minority voters from casting a ballot, and Romney won Florida. Could Obama still win?Yes he could - but he barely wins in this scenario.Romney Wins: Arizona, Nevada, Colorado, Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, FloridaObama Wins: New Mexico, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, VirginiaObama: 288 WinnerRomney: 250

Scenario Three: Electoral College Map #3

This map reflects how I think the electoral college map will look after the election. I’m not an electoral college expert like Nate Silver of the Fivethirtyeight blog. I’m using my gut feeling here, and current polling data, to create this map where Obama wins more convincingly. Do you think I’m making shit up? The difference between me and the extremists is that I’m telling you about it. I think this scenario is very plausible.Romney Wins: Arizona, Missouri, IndianaObama Wins: Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida Pollsters have gotten better over time, though it’s impossible to be right 100% of the time. I thought let’s mix things up a little and make the race more competitive. What if crazy Florida worked overtime to keep minority voters from casting a ballot, and Romney won Florida. Could Obama still win?Yes he could - but he barely wins in this scenario.Romney Wins: Arizona, Nevada, Colorado, Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, FloridaObama Wins: New Mexico, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hamphire, Virginia

Obama: 347 WinnerRomney: 191

Conclusion

Obama: 332 WinnerRomney: 206

However I sliced and diced the numbers, Obama came out ahead in every scenario.Bill Clinton was the first President to be elected twice with less than 50% of the popular vote.President Obama could be the 2nd President to be elected with less than 50% of the popular vote. Or not.Regardless, it’s very difficult to create a realistic scenario where Obama doesn’t win. Much can happen between now and election day. What do you think?I’m glad that Election 2012 is finally getting interesting! And that Obama is ahead and pulling away.