It's not easy being green

As House Democrats race toward a Friday floor vote on a controversial energy and climate change bill, moderate lawmakers on both sides of the aisle are feeling a little like Kermit the Frog.

It’s not easy being green.

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House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and about a dozen emissaries are cornering skeptical Democrats across the Capitol, warning them that a vote against the bill will come back to haunt them. Top White House officials — including chief of staff Rahm Emanuel — are calling in on-the-fence members for high-pressure meetings.

Across the aisle, Republican leaders are trying to lock down their own caucus in near-unanimous opposition — the better to make the bill, which they dub an “energy tax,” a major campaign issue in 2010.

Moderates — in both parties — are stuck in the middle of what David Wasserman, House editor of the Cook Political Report, calls a “treacherous vote.”

Republicans are paying close attention to how freshman Democrats from conservative districts vote on the bill. While longer-serving Democrats from Republican-leaning districts might be able to explain the difficult vote to their constituents, freshmen may not have the political experience or goodwill back home to survive it.

“Most of my constituents are saying that if you vote for this, you won’t return to Congress,” said Massa. “This is 80-20 back home.”

Freshmen are complaining that Pelosi has given them too little time to review the whopping 1,200-plus-page bill. As of Wednesday, several said they remained undecided.

Kratovil, a freshman Democrat on the Agriculture Committee who will probably find himself in the Republicans’ cross hairs next fall, spent the early part of the week reviewing changes to the bill, along with a 107-page report on the issue written by the Congressional Research Service.

“I’m looking at some of the issues that have been resolved on the Ag Committee,” Kratovil said. “I’m optimistic these issues will be resolved.”

But he’s still on the fence, saying he needs to know more details about the final bill before he will know for sure which way he’s going to vote. “For me, it’s the details,” he said.

The schemers: Reps. Charlie Melancon and Mark Kirk

Both Melancon and Kirk are eyeing statewide office, and their political ambitions are certainly influencing their votes on the bill. Melancon has all but officially declared his challenge to Republican Sen. David Vitter (R-La.). And in Illinois, Republicans are pressuring Kirk to run for Obama’s old Senate seat in 2010.

Melancon voted against the bill, which is close to a nonstarter in oil-rich Louisiana, when it was before the House Energy and Commerce Committee. With the GOP already ready running radio ads against him, he’s expected to oppose the bill again this week.

Kirk remains on the fence, saying he has concerns about the lack of funding for nuclear energy and coal interests in his state.

“We don’t want to de-industrialize Michigan, Illinois and Wisconsin,” Kirk said after a meeting with Pelosi and Reps. Henry Waxman (D-Calif.) and Ed Markey (D-Mass.), the sponsors of the legislation.

Opposing the bill could hurt him, however, in Chicago and other more liberal corners of the state. So voting for the bill, note political observers, could indicate some serious senatorial ambitious.