Recent workshop held in Chiangmai had concluded that Naypyitaw’s
honoring of the ceasefire agreement signed between the Kachin
Independence Organization / Kachin Independence Army (KIO/KIA) and the
current government’s predecessor would prove indispensable to the peace
process, not only with the Kachins but with the rest of ethnic
movements.

U Thein Zaw (Photo: Mizzima)

It
would be in addition to the repositioning, the politically correct word
for withdrawal, of Burma Army units that had moved into KIA controlled
areas since 9 June 2011, according to the discussants that included
Chin, Kachin, Karen, Karenni, Mon and Shan representatives.

“If the Kachin ceasefire agreement is not recognized because it was
signed by Gen Khin Nyunt (who was ousted in 2004), that would set a
dangerous precedent,” said a participant. “People will start to wonder
what’s going to happen to the ceasefire agreements signed by U Aung Min
when he is no more the government’s negotiator after 2015.”

There are 13 ethnic movements that have concluded ceasefire
agreements with Naypyitaw, although government officials, for some
unexplained reason, always cite the wrong figure. 7 of them were signed
by U Aung Thaung and 6 by U Aung Min:

U Aung Thaung

U Aung Min

United Wa State Army

National Democratic Alliance Army

Democratic Karen Buddhist Army

Karen Peace Council

Shan State Progress Party

Arakan Liberation Party

National Socialist Council of Nagaland

Restoration Council of Shan State

Chin National Front

Karen National Union

New Mon State Party

Karenni National Progressive Party

PaO National Liberation Organization

Others have also questioned whether or not the government’s Union
Peacemaking Work Committee (UPWC), nominally headed by Vice President
Sai Mawk Kham, but in fact run by U Aung Min, is an agency approved by
the parliament. “If it is not, then any budget proposal from the UPWC,
like that from the National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) also
established by the President, is likely to be rejected by the
parliament,” said one.

So far, U Thein Zaw, Vice Chairman # 3 of the UPWC, is the only one
designated by the Lower House as head of the National Races Affairs and
Internal Peacemaking Committee. The Upper House meanwhile had appointed U
San Tun as head of National Races Affairs and Domestic Peace Committee.
However, U San Tun is not a member of the UPWC.

Everyone reportedly agreed that the ongoing peace process was still a job with too many loose ends to tie up.

The Working Group for Ethnic Coordination (WGEC), made up of United
Nationalities Federal Council (UNFC), the alliance of 11-armed groups,
and non-UNFC movements, is to meet early next year to discuss the next
stage of the peace process: political negotiations.