National Grid Future Energy Scenarios: Solar could be UK’s ‘dominant’ source of power by 2030

The “optimistic” “Community Renewables” scenario envisages 33 GW of solar and 9 GW of storage by 2030, and 66 GW of solar and 29 by 2050.

It is worth perusing the track record of scenarios in energy reports covered in the chronology. In essence, they underestimate growth without exception, often ludicrously.

The most pessimistic of National Grid’s scenarios, ‘Steady Progression’, envisages 16.4GW of solar by 2030. 13GW of solar capacity is currently operational, meaning little more than 3GW of solar would be connected over the coming 12 years. Why do they even bother formulating such a scenario?