Redistricting did no favors for Owens, who won in 2010 against Doheny and a third candidate with only 48 percent of the vote. The partisan tilt of the upstate district remained about the same: tossup territory.

The new poll, conducted by respected Democratic firm Anzalone Liszt Research, found both candidates had strong name identification: 81 percent for Owens and 71 percent for Doheny.

Forty-one percent of those likely voters polled had a favorable opinion of Owens, while 17 had an unfavorable opinion of him and 24 percent had neutral feelings about him.

The survey used live telephone interviews of 400 likely voters. It was in the field from July 29-31. The margin of error was 4.9 points.

Update: “The fact that Bill Owens can’t break 50 percent as an incumbent in a poll commissioned by his own party is indicative of how much trouble he’s in this fall," said Doheny spokesman Jude Seymour in a statement to Roll Call. "When people find out that Owens is part of job-killing agenda of this administration, that number is going to be much lower than 50 percent.”