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CVAS - Climate Variability Across Scales

Climate Variability Across Scales: from centuries to millennia (CVAS) timeline

Launch

Synthesis

2016

2017

2018

2019

Overview

PAGES aims to improve reconstructions, understandings and models of past climates. CVAS will quantify climate variability across space and time scales. While such variability occurs over huge ranges, centennial and millennial variability is of special importance.

First, the natural variability at these scales dynamically interacts with anthropogenic forcing so that there are implications for understanding both the industrial epoch and also for future climate projections.

Second, multiproxy records show that the variability at these scales is very strong yet cannot be explained by the much lower frequency orbital forcing mechanisms. At these scales, existing numerical models (e.g. Millennium simulations) drive the variability almost exclusively by solar and volcanic forcings, but there is growing evidence that these forcings are too weak and that other slow internal climate mechanisms are likely at work.

The description and understanding of centennial and millennial variability requires climate series developed by paleoclimatologists combined with multiscale and scaling analysis techniques developed by nonlinear geophysicists. While these communities have interacted notably at the European Geoscience Union, this was taken to a new level with the first joint (partially PAGES funded) workshop in the Mont-Orford National Park near Montreal (4-7 October 2015).