Federal forecasters said this week that Orange County is unlikely to receive significant rain through Nov. 15. But, there’s some good news. Or, rather, some potentially good news. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center says that Southern California is likely to receive above average rainfall between Nov. 1 and January 31st. CPC doesn’t predict how far above normal the precipitation might be. Instead, the agency forecasts general trends based on long-term models of climate. Readers should look at the prediction as an educated guess. CPC also says that an El Nino remains active in the eastern equatorial Pacific. But the agency says in an Oct. 15th analysis, “The models disagree on the eventual strength of the El Nino.” The forecasts reflect the limited understanding of the complexities of global and regional climate and weather patterns.

The only thing that doesn’t remain uncertain is the need for rain. John Wayne Airport has received 0.38” of precipitation since the rainy season began on July 1, or about a half-inch below normal. Since Jan. 1, the airport has received 3.17”, or 6.63” below normal. The county has received below normal rainfall for the past three years, and the region is current listed as being in a severe drought.