Jul 20, 2011

DAY 49

Bret remains a tropical storm tonight with sustained winds of 50 mph and a pressure of 999mb. He is still headed north-northeast and is gradually starting to pick up speed, now moving at 8 mph. His forecast track has changed very little. Still no threat to land. Bret will continue to weaken, spending one more day at tropical storm strength.

Bret is being sheared from north to south. You can make out the fairly empty spin on this infrared image, and the only thunderstorm activity is on the south side of the storm.

The Hurricane Center has also circled another area of low pressure that has developed along the same old front that Bret was from. It has been given a 30% chance of becoming a sub-tropical storm. If by some strange reason it does develop it will receive the next name in line even though it will not be tropical in nature.

The strong African wave we've been watching is still healthy tonight. Some of its vorticity is not as clearly visible as it was yesterday but it is still producing lots of storms and carrying a lot of moisture along with it. The Canadian forecast model is still very aggressive in developing this storm as it makes its way into the northern Caribbean. It is still a long way out at this point. It could reach the windward islands by the weekend.