I know there are a few on here who like to talk and debate who gets rostered and who gets left unprotected in the Rule 5 every year. Thought I would start a thread on this since we started talking about it in the Sipp thread.

Plus, I got official info from the Indians on who is Rule 5 eligible this year. Here they are (notables are in bold):

So, assuming all 9 of the first list are removed, then taking into consideration Dellucci being added back to the 40-man when he comes off the DL and assuming 2 free agent signings that would leave between 6 and 9 (if all 3 "on the bubble" are dropped) free spaces. So, I'm gonna assume that they'll be room for maybe 5 guys to be added when you consider there may be more free agent signings and possibly guys coming back in trades. Someone please correct my figures if you feel the neccessity/

With that in mind I pick the following 5 players:-

Adam Miller - no brainer

Matt Whitney - decision made half with head and half with heart. Still probably the only true RH power bat in the system.

Brian Barton - Lots of tools, the kind of guy that could easily stick if taken.

Scott Lewis - Good pitching instincts..... LHP who could be hidden in a ML bullpen for a season.

Reid Santos - As, I think Dennis put it, could easily be next years Jensen Lewis.

Mullhern is on the bubble, but being a 1Bman I see the above players having more of a chance of sticking elsewhere. Also, intrigued by Newsom and Nottingham, but both I think fall short in ability compared to the players I listed.

The rest, although there are guys like Costanza (because ofhis speed), Van Every (because of the glove and power) and Gimenez (power and utility abilities) who could stick elsewhere, I don't think their ceilings are high enough to warrant a 40-man spot.

Tony Sipp, due to injury, doesn't get a spot.... I would expect him not to be selected.

Of that list, beyond Barton, Whitney and of course Miller and maybe Lewis, I don't see any that would need to be protected. Sipp is coming off TJ, I can't imagine any team gambling on him. I think leaving Whitney exposed might be a huge gamble.

Mulhern certainly is a possibility, but beyond that, I don't see anybody that's close to being major league ready that we would worry about losing.

Some who might be taken would be Stanford, Van Every, Choy Foo, Dittler, Goleski, Elarton (again) and possibly Toregas and Wallace.

I'm assuming you have left off Marte, Aubrey, Martin, Snyder, Sowers, Laffey & Francisco among others because they're on the 40 man roster? That might and probably will change too.

I don't know what the actual number is but, in the past, I think we have protected up to 38 on the Buffalo roster. What these means is that most of the guys on this list that are not protected on the 40-man roster can be protected so that they would have to be kept on a major league roster all year next year if they were drafted. That is a huge number of guys and it makes you wonder how you could ever lose even a reasonably minor prospect to the minor league Rule 5 draft. I don't see a lot of these guys aside from those we would protect making major league rosters next year out of spring training.

At the same time, Ryan Goleski is the perfect example of a guy whose year can ruined by being taken back after failing to make a ML roster out of ST.

As always, it will be interesting....and no two people will completely agree on who should be protected.

Ryan Mulhern (BB/K ratio and age reminds me of a Ryan Ludwick, Josh Phelps type of major league player)
Tony Sipp (injury out for a long time, but would save if open roster spot)
Jon Van Every (old and has a bad strikeout rate, not offset with exceptional power)
Ryan Goleski (inconsistent performance, obviously doesn't want to be here)
Randy Newsom (25 with awful K per IP rate, and mediocre IP/H ratio),
Jim Ed Warden (way too old to be slammed around at Buffalo)
TJ Burton (too many hits per inning at his age and level)
Jose Constanza (speed only, too little power not offset by exceptional OBP)

Newsom may be reconsidered if we have an open slot due to his extreme GB/FB ratio, and the fact that he can be a "ROOGY".

Regarding Sipp, one thing to remember, if you have the roster spot this winter, is that you gain that roster spot back when the season opens and he is put on the 60-day DL. So if you can get a good minor league free agent signee who knows they will be on the roster when the season starts, you can bring them in and not have to roster that guy during the winter.

I roster Sipp because, if you don't, you have given the team who selects him in the Rule 5 the whole year of not having to roster him on the 25 because he is injured. They would have to roster him two winters before he ever plays but, heck, there are teams out there who have that 40-man roster freedom.

I'm surprised that people are not listing Brian Slocum among the cuts but are listing Aaron Fultz and a Sowers/Lee (due to trade).

The final 40 man listing (for the rule 5 draft) needs to be submitted to the major league offices by mid-November. While I agree that a deal involving Lee might be the best thing for all people involved, I doubt a Lee deal would be completed ahead of Thanksgiving. It would probably be finished at the winter meetings.

I think they will keep Fultz and possibly resign Chris Gomez. I believe they will trade Lee this winter and I wouldn't be surprised to see Francisco and/or Choo traded as well. We could see the trade deadline rumor come to fruition and see Cliff go to Arizona for Carlos Quentin.

captain_wahoo wrote:I think they will keep Fultz and possibly resign Chris Gomez. I believe they will trade Lee this winter and I wouldn't be surprised to see Francisco and/or Choo traded as well. We could see the trade deadline rumor come to fruition and see Cliff go to Arizona for Carlos Quentin.

The key is how many players do we need for each position which is used as a starting point to see who is on and off the 40 man roster? I did this to make sure we have each position set for decent competition in spring with a few people in minors ready to be called up if there is an injury.

(plus 1 additional player for 25 man – reliever, outfield or infield and 2 for 40 for pitching which is harder to predict and more acceptable to injury so we can do 10 starters and 10 relievers). And, I probably would go with 5 inflielders (one less than normal 6 ) and 9 outfielders (one more than normal 8) due to who we have.

Starting Pitchers (10)

Locks to Start (3)Fausto Carmona – Lock – Possibly #1 starter after next year
C.C. Sabathia – Lock – We should try to sign for $19-$20 million over 5 years
Jake Westbrook – Lock – Came back from a rough start

Battling over 4th and 5th spot (5)Paul Byrd – Pick up $8 million option – Some say he has no trade value, yet with a thin free agent market, why wouldn’t another team want to pick him up for security for a decent low-level prospect in return next spring?
Cliff Lee
Aaron Laffey
Jeremy Sowers
Adam Miller – Add

Keep 2 of the following 3 and either trade or risk losing the other (unless we keep 11)–J.D. Martin
Brian Slocum
Sean Smith – keep off and hope he isn’t taken?

How much room is there room with everyone people fighting over 4 and 5th starter to keep all three? The key is what to do after Byrd leaves and if Sabathia is not resigned. We will have some average starters in Westbrook, Lee, Sowers and Laffey. Yet, no one really stands out other than Carmona and A. Miller, who is often injured. Lofgren is the closest to being special in the minors, yet he needs probably a 1 to 2 to develop.

We would need to drop Martin or Slocum to get them off the 40 to add Smith who is more consistent. Even though Smith had a rough year, the key is who will have more upside then the others? Martin would initially (reason he was added last year). Yet, I would either drop Martin (if he does not show anything in Fall leagues – 2 years injured may affect his stuff which was not as great as Miller) or Slocum and add Smith. Otherwise, if we do not add Van Every to 40 in the outfield, we can go with all three to see if one has a great year and becomes a starter with upside that we need if Sabathia leaves. Thus, maybe the option is go with all three unless we sign Sabathia this winter where we know our starters are set in Sabathia, Carmona, Westbrook with either A. Miller, Sowers, Laffey or Lee (for spots 4 and 5) for the next 3 to 4 years where we do not need to worry about a starter who is often injured like Martin.

Off 40-manSanford – Stays off – no one wanted him this year on waivers, so why add him

Relievers (10)

Locks (5)Rafael Betancourt – Lock
Rafael Perez - Lock
Jensen Lewis – Lock
Joe Borowski – Pick up option – even though we should look for another closer
Aaron Fultz – Pick up option – one of the few people that Wedge counts on

Fighting over last 1 to 2 spots on 25 man (but all on 40) (4)

Tom Mastny
Edward Mujica
Juan Lara
Tony Sipp – add, hopefully a Sept. call-up – yet he is too good to leave off (a potential closer) who if picked by another team can end up on their roster in July after their team is out of post-season contention to get his 90 day none-DL service for Rule 5.

Note, who ever loses out on the starting pitching position (A. Miller, Sowers, Lee, Laffey) will probably be one of the relievers (with the other 2 being optioned down to minors or getting a reliever spot over Fultz or another injured reliever)

Possibly 1 of the following 3 being added to 40 roster

Scott Lewis – probably added due to being a lefty who may start if innings improve enough
Randy Newsom
Reid Santos

We can add another (especially Santos being a lefty). I would go with Santos over Fultz, yet Cleveland is probably going to go with experience being another playoff race next year. This is probably the hardest decision for them. You are going to lose someone on this list for sure (Santos or Lewis being lefties) unless we cut a veteran like Borowski (and let Perez and Betancourt fight for the closer spot) or Fultz. Otherwise, the only other option is to not add Sipp or cut Lara who had a great year in 06 and a bad year in 07. Yet, in the needing a closer for the future, should we risk losing a potential closer or risk losing a 6th inning person such as Newsom or Santos?

Off 40 man rosterMike Koplove
John Koronka
Matt Miller

Not Added
Jim Warden - you have to cut the line somewhere

Catcher (3)

Victor Martinez - Lock
Kelly Shoppach - Lock
Wyatt Toregas - Possibly add – he is good defensively which another team can use and hide as 2nd or 3rd catcher, until he improves on his bat

Having 3 catchers on the 40 man is reasonable. Martinez and Shoppach have the spots locked up for years to come. Toregas is added for insurance in case of injury until a McBride or Alcombrack is ready in 4 years. With Max Ramirez traded, Toregas is the only option close to being ready.

1st Base / DH (3)

Travis Hafner – Lock
Ryan Garko – Lock

Keep 1 on the 2 on the 40 listMichael Aubrey (needs to be removed if Mulhern is added)
Ryan Mulhern (needs to be added or risk losing)

If Aubrey lights it up in Fall League, I would leave him on the list because he has the potential to be better than Mulhern. Yet, Mulhern will be chosen if left off. Yet, with Mills, Whitney and others in the minors and with Hafner and Garko settled in for years to come, it is not an issue to lose an average 1st baseman like Mulhern if front office feels like Aubrey is over his injury bug. Mulhern will not see the field her with Garko, Hafner and Martinez being adequate fielders ahead of him. Aubrey can be an injury replacement (funny due to all his injuries) due to a plus bat and at one time a plus fielding.

Off ListMatthew Whitney – He will probably be added next year. He is a low level player that is hard to hide for another team on 25 man because he is not a utility player just 1st base and DH.
Chris Gomez – too old to keep

2nd, 3rd, Shortstop (5)

Asdrubal Cabrera – lock – possibly a rookie of year candidate next year if he does not get too many innings this year.
Jhonny Peralta - lock
Andy Marte - lock
Josh Barfield - lock
Casey Blake – offer arbitration – will be a super utility player

I think they will all make the final roster next year. Marte may be traded as Cabrera takes over shortstop and Peralta moves over to 3rd. Yet, as he did with Philips in the minors, Peralta can move over to short to spell Cabrera while Carbera can also move over to 2nd to spell Barfield with Marte getting a few shots at 3rd to prove his value. Then we can decide who are the best 3 infielders and trade the 4th in a year or two when our younger players (Hodges and Rodriquez now at Kinston and Davis and Rivero at Lake County) start coming close to being called-up in case of injury. This is starting to be a position of strength if Marte and Barfield turn out to be at least average if not fulfill their potential to be plus players.

Possible addition to 40 (down the road)Chris Giminez – He is too low-level to put on 40 especially when pitching and outfield are more of a concern. He would be a good utility player for a team, yet I think we have too many outfielders to keep on the 40 man that we can go light here (one less than the normal 6 players) and know that we have a lot of young talent already at the majors and with more talent in Kinston and Lake County where if we lost Giminez, we will be alright down the road. We will not even notice if we lost Giminez with Blake here.

Do not add
Ryan Goleski – had just started to hit and we have enough outfielders
Jason Cooper

Remember when I said that we would go light on the infield to have enough room to add a few people to the outfield. This way we have Van Every and Barton added and we figure out who to drop after spring training. Yet, no one really stands out for the 3rd outfield spot (not impressed with Michaels and Dellucci). I rather have more adequate young competition to possibly beat one of them out (with an outstanding spring), if not both.

The only problem is in adding Van Every, we lose a pitcher. The decision is for the final 2 spots:

Van Every vs. the starter pitcher not in 10 starters on list (J.D. Martin, Smith, Slocum)
Toregas vs. one of the two relievers not added (Newsom, Santos or Lewis – who I would have already added over Santos and Newsom). Thinking this over I may take Santos over Toregas due to being a lefty.

Or, they cut someone like Brad Snyder to add a reliever. Personally, I would drop Michaels or Dellucci before this. Yet, they like their veterans.

I know in the past, they liked keeping the list at 38 or 39 for free agent signing or rule 5 pick-up. Yet, if we have a free agent pick-up the positions should only be added at the expense of another veteran at the spot (closer - Borowski, reliever - Fultz, outfield - Delucci or Michaels). Adding a free agent will only mean losing a younger player with more promise down the road.

Time for my ideas on this topic. I first thought about doing an article but reconsidered. I wanted to get this out ahead of any playoff successes or failures so that my listing is as objective as possible.

To begin, I need to clear off space on the 40 man in order to add players that would otherwise be eligible to be taken in the draft. I believe 10 spots need to be opened for the draft eligible group, possible drafting and the signing of possible free agents.

To start (IMHO), all the option contract years should be exercised (JoeBo, Byrd, Fultz). Spots opened: Zero

Next I look at the pending free agents: Trot Nixon, Kenny Lofton, Chris Gomez. I would look to resign only Gomez and that would be after the draft in December if he is interested in returning. For the purposes of the time ahead of the draft, I will plan on 3 spaces being opened.

From there I predict that Matt Miller (RRP), JD Martin (RSP), Luis Rivas (INF), Brad Snyder (OF), Mike Aubrey (1B) will be removed from the 40 man roster. This gives me 8 spaces having been opened up.

Other names that might be cut to make space include: Mike Koplove (RRP), Juan Lara (LRP), Brian Slocum (RSP) and Shin-Soo Choo (OF). For the purposes of meeting my number of '10', I also cut Slocum and Lara.

Just missing the addition group are Wyatt Toregas (C) and Ryan Mulhern (1B/OF)

In going this route, there are 2 open spots on the 40 man roster for possible free agent signings and drafting of players from other organizations during the Rule 5 draft. Another benefit of going this route is the ability to stash Sipp and possible Choo on the 60 day DL at the end of Spring Training for adding other players (spring training invitees or kids from the minors that earned their way to the majors during spring training a la Grady, CC in the past).

On a related topic, I forsee Mark Shapiro burning up the phone lines and trying to get a deal done ahead of the mid-November roster submission deadline (like last year with the Barfield trade). I'm keeping my fingers crossed that its a Cliff Lee/ Jason Bay type of trade.

Players in bold are the ones I consider removing to make room for the new players. There is always a possibility that some of the other players are traded, but considering how this list has to be finalized by Nov 20th, there should not be that much trade activity if any.

I think they should decline Fultz’s option and outright Rivas, Slocum, Aubrey, and Snyder to the minors. That opens another five spots. I would keep Martin the list because supposedly he has looked terrific in instructs…..and I guess you just gamble with Aubrey clearing waivers. We just can’t have him on the 40-man right now, considering how fragile he is still.

Of the guys on the Rule 5 eligibles list, these are the guys I consider adding to the 40-man for roster protection:

Of that list, I would have to protect Toregas, Sipp, Santos, Gimenez, Whitney, Lewis, and Barton. For the final one or two spots, it comes down to: Mulhern, Smith, Goleski, and Newsom. If we remove Aubrey from the 40-man, Mulhern would almost certainly be added…..so since in my scenario I have Aubrey being removed, then Mulhen is added. The final spot comes down to Smith and Newsom….which are two guys who profile as certain Rule 5 picks. I’m not a big Smith fan, so I would add Newsom.

While I don't agree with your list I have reconsidered a little and think we need to consider adding Gimenez and Nottingham. I think they could be targets in the Rule V draft.

However, after looking at my list I can't see removing Aubrey and Snyder or even Fultz for Nottingham or Gimenez. Nottingham, at this point in his career profiles best as a reliever...but only because of his 2007 as a starter. That is, he profiles best SHORT TERM as a reliever. Given that this is true I can't see protecting him over Fultz unless I know he can put up Fultz-like numbers starting the 2008 season. I would rather gamble that he isn't ready and leave him off.

Regarding Gimenez, the Indians FO speak I am hearing reminds me of Garko. I see him as being two years away from a utility role in the majors. He didn't hit well when pushed up to AA and is only just holding his own in the AFL.

While I fear losing Gimenez and Nottingham in the draft I am willing to take that risk because I dont' think they stick. Gimenez and Nottingham are, from my experience, the classic guys you leave unprotected in the Rule V. Of course, you protect them against the minor league portion.

Now, after the AFL, the Indians may reassess and think that Aubrey and Snyder will NEVER be major leaguers (something I find hard to believe) and if that is the case then I clearly dump them and protect Nottingham and Gimenez who, someday, might be major leaguers. As I said, however, I can't believe if Aubrey gets through this fall uninjured and Snyder makes some noise in the AFL that the Indians would protect two guys who are 1-2 years away and only project as role players once they get here over Aubrey and Snyder. But you never know.

As far as Smith and Newson I totally disagree. Look at Joakim Soria (http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/ ... oria.shtml), a hard thrower who was in low A when he was selected in last year's Rule V. The point is that teams select hard throwers who are VERY far away from the majors who they hope they can tame in time to be useful that year. They don't select soft tossers and especially not righty soft tossers just because they have had success and are closer to the majors because, in the end, they would be selecting fringe major leaguers who they are selecting on current (fringe, at best, in the case of Newsom) ML ability with little or no projections. Plus, with Smith, he has no history as a reliever and doesn't have the stuff to relieve. There is no way in heck that Newsom or Smith get selected unless the Indians don't even protect them against the MINOR LEAGUE portion of the Rule V draft. I think that Perdomo is more at risk than either of those two and that the only reason he would not get selected is because he isn't tall. Brian Juhl described him as throwing in the low to mid 90s and having a rubber arm. If that isn't the recipe for being selected in the Rule V, well, I have seen enough Rule Vs to know that it is EXACTLY guys like Perdomo who get selected. Now, I will give you Cumberbatch. I don't think he gets selected but the reports I got from the instructs are that he was swinging the bat well and he is a 5-tool guy from what I have heard so, as a 5th outfielder he might even get popped in the Rule V and would certianly be gone in the minor league phase.

Now, as far as Mulhern, you HAVE to leave him unprotected just because of the numbers. He is an older prospect who shows little plate discipline and little power at first base, a position that you need both. I just can't see any contender selecting him and I can't see any lower team selecting him because he has no upside at the moment, IMHO. Teams can protect utility infielders, 4th or 5th outfielders or 7th relievers but not first baseman with little power. It would be a hole on their 25 man roster and even the WORST team has to have a better option than Mulhern...assuming he would even hit enough to stick out of spring training.

When I do my Rule V article you will see that the sure bets to be selected don't even come close to always being selected and there are guys who you would never even think would get selected who get selected an come on right away (see Soria). There is very little difference, IMO, between a major league pitcher and a low A pitcher, assuming the same core stuff. Only experience and consistency, something that can be worked around if you only use the guy in certain spots and spend a lot of time preparing him for that infrequent use.

Look at the logjam in the OF and at 1B. You have Choo out of options and Francisco ready for a ML role. Then, you have Goleski, Barton, Crowe, Van Every, Cooper, and Snyder all vying for time in Buffalo. On top of that, you have three 1B slotted for time in Buffalo in Brown, Aubrey and Mulhern.

Now, Cooper is probably cast aside....and Van Every may sign elsewhere.....but assuming Francisco is not traded you have him, Goleski, Crowe, Barton, and Snyder for three spots in the outfield in Buffalo. And, at 1B you have three guys in Brown, Aubrey and Mulhern for two spots (1B and DH).

That's eight regulars for five total positions. One or more of these guys are traded, released, or taken in te Rule 5.

Totally bizarre but not unexpected. Just because we think a guy should stick around doesn't mean he will. The FO knows who works well in the locker room and on the field and unspoken clashes as this happen. I mean, you have to trust them. Look at their track record with guys like Brandon Phillips/Ramon Vazquez etc.

I found the 'official' announcement and it reads like the Koplove and Rivas moves were made today.

However, you did clue the rest of us 6 days ago about the Koplove move.
Either way its water under the bridge. 6 spots have been opened on the 40 man roster and more should be coming this week. It will be interesting to see just how many spots will be opened and who exactly gets aded to the roster.

MadThinker88 wrote:I found the 'official' announcement and it reads like the Koplove and Rivas moves were made today.

However, you did clue the rest of us 6 days ago about the Koplove move.Either way its water under the bridge. 6 spots have been opened on the 40 man roster and more should be coming this week. It will be interesting to see just how many spots will be opened and who exactly gets aded to the roster.

dnosco wrote:As Dave Hudgens told me, he is thinking Snyder will have a breakout year next year. If that is indeed true I want him on my roster this winter. Ditto for Aubrey who is getting hot now and, more importantly, is playing almost every day in the AFL.

Yeah, looking like Aubrey and Snyder stick. Which really only leaves Lara, Slocum, Choo, and Mujica as guys who are possibly removed. Of those four, I think Slocum may be on the verge of being outrighted. I had completely forgotten about him actually.

Assuming we do release one guy, it looks like we have seven spots to fill.

And, of that group I think they have to protect Miller (obviously), the three lefties in Lewis, Santos and Sipp, and the catcher Toregas. That leaves a spot for one or two others from a reduced lst of Mulhern, Whitney, Newsom, Barton and Gimenez.

I personally do not roster Whitney. I just can't see ay team taking him since he has yet to play above A+ and many wonder if last year was for real or a fluke....especially in the wake of Goleski's 2006 season and how he fared last year. For the last two spots I would probably add Barton and Mulhern. Although, I do worry about losing GImenez. Big power potential and very versatile, he could possibly slip in over Mulhern (or Toregas).

Starting to look like no one will be removed, which means we only add 4-5 guys.

With Jordan Brown slotted to play 1B at Buffalo, it really only leaves the door open for one of Aubrey or Mulhern to be the DH and backup 1B. Since I believe Aubrey will stay on the roster, I think Mulhern is then left off. Even if they protected him, there is no way they carry three first basemen in Buffalo.

Also, with five regular outfielders slotted for Buffalo in Trevor Crowe, Brian Barton, Ben Francisco, Brad Snyder, and Ryan Goleski, two of them have to go. Obviously, Crowe and Francisco are locks to be in the outfield, and it appears Snyder will stay on the 40-man. So, that leaves Goleski (who I guess could return to Akron to start the year) and barton being left unprotected.

The only players I see on the notable unprotected list I would be upset about losing would be Barton, Mulhern, Whitney, Newsom and Gimenez....although I think the only ones likely to be taken are Mulhern, Barton and Newsom. Whitney has not even played above Single-A yet and Gimenez got a small taste above Single-A last year and struggled.

Whitney's progress in the FDP shows me he will be protected. I can't believe they would protect Toregas over Barton or Whitney. I am pretty sure the latter two play in the majors but not Toregas...even with the dearth of ML-quality catchers!

So, subtituted Whitney for Toregas and, if you can, shoehorn Barton on the roster.