One of the penalties for refusing to participate in politics is that you end up being governed by your inferiors:
Plato

Tuesday, December 23, 2008

Stephen Harper and the stench of political death

There is a rather noxious odor coming from 24 Sussux and it is not the smell of the mould that is to be removed during the renovations.Stephen Harper is looking more and more like a government leader who knows that his days in that position are numbered. It is apparent in the way he is carrying himself and in his actions. Indeed, the similarities between him and Paul Martin after the Brault revelations during the Gomery Inquiry hearings is striking.After those revelations everybody in this town knew that Mr. Martin would never win another election.The November economic statement was the beginning of the transformation from political strongman to political has been and the Senate appointments will be what cements Mr. Harper's fate. For the second time in less than a month I heard my co-workers talking about politics today, specifically the Senate appointments, and like a few weeks ago their statements were not at all positive towards Mr. Harper. Mr. Harper, Mr. Manning and other Reformers, God bless them, were very successful in denigrating the Senate in the eyes of Canadians so the stacking of the Senate by one of them, with party bagmen and party hacks, is going to have a much greater impact on public opinion than if a Liberal would have done it. All of the other acts of hypocracy by this government were largely ignored but this last one is going to stick.Again, like Mr. Martin, I believe Mr. Harper will enjoy a temporary reprieve from the Headman's axe in January but it will be short-lived. The idea of a coalition does not sit well with Canadians and that fact is causing an artificial boost in support for the Conservatives. However, once the "threat" of a coalition disappears at the end of January Conservative Party numbers will catch up to the sudden low standing Stephen Harper enjoys with Canadians. Then, sometime in the spring or summer the Big Three automakers are going to announce massive layoffs AFTER accepting billions in government handouts and that will mark the beginning of the final death spiral of support for the Conservatives. Incidently, those layoffs are going to happen no matter what. The structural problems with the Big Three cannot be solved with tax payers money. It will only be solved by major restructuring and that means lost jobs in the thousands.Stephen Harper is beyond political redemption. My guess is we will no longer by talking about him during the holiday season of 2009. His own party will either turf him or Canadians will turf him, probably in the Fall of 2009.

1 Comments:

"The idea of a coalition does not sit well with Canadians and that fact is causing an artificial boost in support for the Conservatives."

And, as I'm sure you are aware, the only poll that avoided the coalition question found Ignatieff tied with Harper for PM, his negatives skyrocketing, the horserace numbers very close.

Conservatives are deluding themselves with these coalition polls, Harper and Cons are not stronger, it's just a reaction to a very, very unpopular alternative. Once the irritant is removed, I suspect some might be in for a surprise. Besides, Harper's musings and body language tell me all I need to know about how things are going, doesn't look a guy on the cusp of a majority, looks like a guy trying to keep it together.