July 17, 2012 – ECONOMY – The risk of a new depression — a sustained, severe recession — has struck fear into the heart of markets and driven monetary policy in developed economies since the current financial crisis began. “We’re in a very unfortunate position to be here,” Richard Duncan, author of The New Depression, warned on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” Monday. “When we broke the link between money and gold, this removed all constraints on credit creation. This explosion of credit created the world we live in, but it now seems that credit cannot expand any further because the private sector is incapable of repaying the debt it has already, and if credit begins to contract, there’s a very real danger that we will collapse into a new Great Depression,” he argued. “If this credit bubble pops, the depression could be so severe that I don’t think our civilization could survive it.” The explosion in cheap credit has been widely blamed for the global financial crisis, but the debate about how to fix the problem continues. “We could keep deferring the depression, but that could just encourage the bad guys. If you do this, you possibly do more harm than good,” Roger Nightingale, economist and strategist at RND Associates, told CNBC Monday. “You can defer, but not prevent.” Nightingale argued that previous credit booms, for example in Japan in the 1980s, have led to sustained recessions. “When you throw money into the system at a rate much in excess of the requirements of the real economy, you’re trying to get people to borrow and spend, but the good guys out there won’t because they’re too cautious. It’s the bad guys who come in, the malefactors,” he said. “When the central banks realize what is going on and raise interest rates, it flings the world economy into depression.” The ideas of Milton Friedman, the Nobel Prize-winning economist who argued that monetary policy should constantly expand, informed some of the Fed’s response to the crisis. “Policymakers really believe that if we allow credit to contract, we will reach a new Depression,” Duncan said. “The increase in government debt is making total debt grow; otherwise we would already have collapsed in to a debt-deflation death spiral. This creates great perils, but also tremendous opportunities.” –CNBC

44 Responses to The next Great Depression will destroy civilization as we know it, warns author

Thank you for posting this Alvin…your coverage of these events gives me a focused package in one place rather than having to sift through reams of data and I respect your judgement and integrity with what you post..You are consistent and stable in your reporting ..I really appreciate the level of focus and commitment from you to get the pertinent facts across with clarity and I enjoy the ‘flow’ as you link one story progressively to another…Bless you…Wendy

THANK YOU Peter Benchley! You are so right, but so many people in this world just don’t want to listen to that. And so many are going to suffer the consequences for it. I pray for the humanity with the closed eyes.

…………and from the ashes could a new world order rise in where there is a central world goverment, a central world religion and a central world economy with limited free speech, no right to assembly, no second amendment, no personal freedom and no choices but to comply or die.
sounds like socialism/communism to me or the rise of the man of sin…………..
Just a taxpayers opinion………….

No, as Stan stated above, it is Designed Destruction. And done by those shadow powers that want nothing to do with the distribution of wealth and resources found in a “pure” communism and socialism. The NWO will be run by a small group of rich at the top, ruling over a very large underclass to wait on them. If they get their way.

Unfortunately and in reality, “pure” communism/socialism, historically, has always devolved into cases such as USSR and East Germany, where there is an elite ruling class at the top with the wealth, the top 5% controlling 95% of everything, then 95% at the bottom beholding to whatever morsels the top permits to hand out and making all the decisions as to who shall get what. And there is no way to move up in such a system other than conform to the corrupt party at the top and become a thug in order to do so, and even then, there’s nothing guaranteed, it being a political hack system. So USSR and East Germany may be the idea to which Dennis is referring to, not the utopian “pure” version that has thus far never materialized any single time it has been forced onto an unwilling population – and always by force or manufactured shenanigans, hardly “democratic” or “free”.

Ok manich, what will we call that type of life “Selective Slavery”?
It is true we are seeing a process leading to a condition(s)
Some as I are under the impression that there will be no wealth and we will live almost hand to mouth………

Unfortunately and in reality, “pure” communism/socialism, historically, has always devolved into cases such as USSR and East Germany, where there is an elite ruling class at the top with the wealth, the top 5% controlling 95% of everything, then 95% at the bottom beholding to whatever morsels the top permits to hand out and making all the decisions as to who shall get what. And there is no way to move up in such a system other than conform to the corrupt party at the top and become a thug in order to do so, and even then, there’s nothing guaranteed, it being a political hack system. So USSR and East Germany may be the idea to which Dennis is referring to, not the utopian “pure” version that has thus far never materialized any single time it has been forced onto an unwilling population – and always by force or manufactured shenanigans, hardly “democratic” or “free”.

One of the most effective misnomers to encourage debt slavery is calling credit cards and credit, credit. When in fact it’s debt. We’ve had 30 years of cheap debt, not cheap credit. Would you have the same easy spending impulse if you took a Debt Card, and not a Credit Card to the mall?

““The increase in government debt is making total debt grow; otherwise we would already have collapsed in to a debt-deflation death spiral. This creates great perils, but also tremendous opportunities.”

What opportunities? In the past 4-5 years we’ve witnessed the largest transfer of wealth in history from working and middle class families to the top ‘1%’ ever. The stock market is broken, and High Frequency Trading and computer algorithms create market moves ordinary investors simply cant beat. Opportunities perhaps for the institutional speculators and bond ‘vigilantes’ who are manipulating and shorting markets, and ‘too big to fail’ banks who have passed on the debt of bad investment decisions to taxpayers of generations to come via government bailouts. Perhaps for the creators and holders of Credit Default Swaps and other bogus ‘financial products’ that have taken banking away from basic services of holding depositors capital, and lending it out to other customers who use it productively.

Printing money creates debt from it’s inception. The Fractional Reserve Banking System multiplies this debt by only being required to keep around 10% of their deposits on hand, the reset is lent out, then lent out again and again, creating a debt chain some 10 times the ‘value’ of the initial deposit.

I’ve read that re-linking the ‘money supply’ to gold would value gold at at around $10,000 an ounce. There is around 100 times the amount of gold and silver that actually exist, traded as contracts and futures. If everyone who thought that they had a stake in a gold fund or trade demanded their physical metal, there would be chaos in the precious metal markets. However reserve banks around the world, particularly in emerging economies, are buying gold bullion at increasing speed, perhaps in anticipation of a total collapse.

There’s also a shadow banking system containing ‘off balance’ sheet debt through which many banks are hiding their exposure to even more debt than is being reported. And the value of the assets on their balance sheets hypothecated then re-hypothecated (multiplied). Plus a Credit Default Swap web with an exposure of some $700 plus trillion. It can never be repaid through production and consumption. Plus the planet can’t cope with the environmental cost (that’s not factored into the global economy’s bottom line) of the ‘endless growth’ model that we have embraced for the past 100 years or so.

“Debtflation”: When the value of everything you own goes down, and the cost of everything you need goes up…

I watched this interview and another on GBTV today. This guy actually thinks we can spend our way out of a debt problem by bigger government doing the investing rather than shrinking government and getting government out of the way. If we let government pick the winners and losers like Obama is doing, we will get horrible inefficiencies. Do we want $600 toilet seats or $50 light bulbs or $5000 tuition.

People have no answers to what ails the world. If there was a solution to the global debt problem, we would have fixed it after the 1929 crash and subsequent Depression. This appears to be more a case of, ‘there’s a leak in the boat’ and I’m plundered everything I can carry before I abandon ship.

Great analogy, the sad thing is that the leak was just below the water line. As they row away with their plunder, they fail to notice that removing all the cargo raised the ship above the leak and would have taken them safely home had they just not worshiped and coveted all that plunder.

I like that analogy Alvin, and you are correct in that there is no solution because we are ALL part of the problem, as much as we little people hate to admit it. Your anology reminded me of of one of my favorite Three Stooges episodes where the Three Stooges are in a row boat on a lake and Curly rips a hole in the bottom of the row boat. As Moe and Larry try to bail out the incoming water, Curly takes a hand drill and begins a new hole in the bottom of the boat, Moe smacks him and says, ” What do you think your doing ? ” Curly replies, ” I’m drilling a second hole so that the water can go back out!!! “

I hate to think of another depression, people back then had more respect for others for the most part. Also the population was so much lower than today, Most will take to the streets and plunder what ever they can and there will not be enough police to protect any one. So if this should happen then load up your guns and get ready, I guess all the people that are against guns will perish. Have a nice day every one.

I am 38 years old and have lived through the good times… the 2008 crash completely caught me off guard. In a way it was good, it brought me to reality. I now hope for the best but plan for the worst and I can see that most do not plan at all. They believe this western lifestyle will go on indefinitely. I wake people when I can. I don’t think I will ever be completely ready but I will give the rest to Jesus (fully man, fully God). People get ready, Jesus is coming!

This article is very true, most Americans are in debt. I am no stranger to credit card debit, in my early 20’s, it was so very easy to get credit cards..I had about 6 & ran about $11k in debt over 5 years…I finally got out of debt in 2010, have zero debt, & have not used a credit card since March 2010. I am done with credit. It is VERY destructive & as I just stated, most Americans are in debt. Most middle class families have many things they do because they are in debt, it may seem they are well off from the outside but they are deep in debt..& same with lower income people…both groups so easily want the new iPhone, iPad, etc..even though they got the one that came out 10 months ago..they charge it..charge clothes, food, electronics…& so on..& only able to pay the minimum payment each month. Is extremely easy to get the mindset of “charge & get stuff now, pay later” very dangerous..there really needs to be legislation passed to keep credit card companies from giving out cards as they do & limit people to how many credit cards & credit one can have.

Just want to say hi Alvin, been thinking of you & am sending light & love your way. Hope all is well with you & yours. I’ve been away up North the last few days protesting against an expansion of a uranium mine located in my state. I figure we’ve got to do what we can whilst we still are able to.

Good article. I think we are being propped up for a big fleecing, and we’re helping them. Either intention or unintentional it really doesn’t matter, what matters is that we are. Before I got sick and our rainy day fund went, we got out of the system… for now, everything paid off. But we ain’t fancy like we were. As George Carlin once said they call it the American Dream because you have to be asleep to believe it, we woke up. I think with moral decay this Depression will not go as well as the last.

you didnt sat where you where from..there is some huge protests going on in Australia re the planned expansion of the BIGGEST uranium mine in the WORLD. it is in a place called roxby downs in south australia.. brave courageuos ozzies are being arrested as they protest..have we n

I expect the next super depression to hit anytime I just hope we can get prepared for it somewhat before it’s upon us.Yes it appears the world-wide-pyramid scam is close to crumbling.
It amazes me what the “powers that be” will do to keep it going for a few more weeks/months but in the end it will fail.

When it hits a lot of people will be out of their comfort zone and miserable.

I blame people for the mess we are in. I personally think it stems from the old saying “what will the Joneses think”; if you drive a five year old economy car instead of the latest luxury high performance sports sedan. If your kids are not in all the local expensive school activities while wearing the latest fashion clothing and using the latest wireless gismo. If you don’t have the largest house with the greenest lawn on the street. All this comes down to is self indulged embarrassment about what your neighbors and total strangers would think about you if did not have what they have. Why put yourself through the financial stress. It is far better to eat healthy and exercise with your loved ones than to get caught in the who is better than who game. Credit cards are just a tool. Pay your whole balance at the end of the month and you will have no stress at all.
If you cannot afford something , open a bank account and deposit a little money in there every week until you have enough money to purchase the item, even then I would still hold off until the end of the year and wait for it to go on clearance or sale.

The only thing my Grandparents ever bought on credit was a home and their cars. Everything else was “if you have the money, you can get it and if not, you’re out of luck”. He was born in 1920 and lived through The Great Depression as a child. For some reason that stuck with me and I’m proud to say at 46 years old I have never had a credit card and I really like the post about it being called what it really is “A Debt Card”. Maybe if more people would look at it that way they wouldn’t get in the messes most Americans have with them. I see people buy pop and cigarettes with them and I think “why would you want to pay interest on that”? If you don’t have 10 bucks, you don’t need that crap. But alas, we do live in a world fueled by instant gratification and it will be the downfall of our civilization. The greedy rich get richer and the rest are left to fight over the scraps like animals. Revolution or Revelation, one way or another things are going to change dramatically soon and everyone should prepare as best they can and try to make plans to meet up if communications are down. Our family has one and we have made our peace with whatever is coming. God Bless everyone who follows this site and especially Alvin for keeping us informed and bringing us all together here. I can’t go a day without TEP.

I’ve seen this issue coming for some time. Unfortunately I awoke to this realization after I had already been a zealous participant in the get things on credit circus. I’m paying that off now. I just pray I finish in time to prepare my family for what’s coming. Well, the best I can anyway. I am thankful God has opened my eyes to the issue. There are many that believe everything is just fine.

As one that had a modest 20k debt over 3 years ago and now its down to a small amount that should be gone in less than a year I can tell you its a HUGE burden off my shoulders and a great stress reliever.
keep going the way your going it feels great.

having the debt wasnt so much of a problem when we were both working but since the wife hasnt worked in 3 years things have been tough but paying down the debt not increasing it makes for far less tension.