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Friday, September 07, 2012

What a difference four years makes. In 2008, Barack Obama and John McCain largely agreed about immigration and so it was rarely mentioned after the conventions. Now, as the speeches at the DNC made clear, Obama and Biden plan to hammer Romney and Ryan on the DREAM Act. I would expect to hear a lot about it in the next two months, for several inter-related reasons.

First, it is very popular nationally. Poll after poll reiterate that fact. It is a no-lose issue for Obama.

Second, it gives the Obama campaign an opportunity to paint Republicans as out of touch with the mainstream. The message from Joe Biden's speech last night was that Romney was a nice guy but didn't get it. I expect the same for the DREAM Act.

Third, every time Romney is forced to explain his position on the DREAM Act, he will lose some Latino votes. It is just very hard to convincingly paint people who entered the United States as 5 year-olds as lawbreakers who need to be deported. Every effort to do so implicitly labels Latinos as lawbreakers.

I was asked by a reporter about the chances of the DREAM Act being passed in the next four years. I actually think the chances are quite good, especially if Obama loses. Opposing it hurts the Republican Party, and many of its leaders know it (and publicly say so). If Romney wins, then of course he campaigned against it, but his view has softened considerably since the beginning of the year. I could see him tinkering with it at the edges, then proclaiming his support because it is somehow improved from the Democratic version.

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Obama promised immigration reform in the first years of office when he enjoyed super majorities in both houses of Congress for the first half of his presidency. Instead, he focused on socialized medicine.

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