This is a discussion on Advanced statistics. within the online poker forums, in the General Poker section; Hello, in a recent conversation I came across an important point that has stuck in my mind, and I wondered what your opinions as poker

Advanced statistics.

Hello, in a recent conversation I came across an important point that has stuck in my mind, and I wondered what your opinions as poker players might be?

The conversation goes a little something like this -
If we have a deck of cards and randomly shuffled them, after the shuffle, the dealing order is set, what will be dealt, will be aligned to seat order relative to deal order. The odds of any seat being dealt pocket aces are 1/221 from a single deck of 52 cards.

If we have a second deck of cards, the odds of any seat receiving aces from a different shuffled random deck are still 1/221.

Up to yet this is simple probabilities without any confusion.

The more tricky part goes something like this,

If we have 1000 decks of cards randomly shuffled, and placed the decks side by side in a line, several of those decks will hold, after the shuffle, a set sequence of each deck, that contains aces in you seat order of distribution of the sequence.

saying this visual

(deck1)(deck2)(deck3) ETC...................(deck1000)

The conversation continued something like -
If you were dealt every hand with a new deck every time, in order of the line, left to right, you are guaranteed to receive aces from several of the decks in your seat, (comparing to tourney play and sitting out not having effect on the deal).

Ok, that is understandable and the sequence of the deck is set for each deck after the shuffle, if you are on the small blind and deck 100 has an ace top card, that is what you get (obviously unknowingly the value until you are dealt it).

Continued - If we add a second table, the distribution is now altered and no longer are you guaranteed the aces you were guaranteed before in your seat position.

Ok, that makes sense, a second table changes the deck order or deck number you will receive,

Instead of deck 1,2,3,4,5,6, in order , we now may get deck 1, 4, 6,7,9, dependent to how fast each table plays and needs a new deck.

This is the thought that stuck with me, like the aces are pre-set to order, so are 72 and all other hands. My thought is that if deck 1,4,6,7,9 have all got 72 in set sequence order for my seat, then I would be seriously stuffed.

The conversation did continue about multi-tables and coolers etc, but I think you will get the idea,

thoughts please?

#2

22nd August 2016, 1:29 AM

detroitjunkie [826]

Online Poker at: was Titan

Game: Baduecy

Originally Posted by swiur

Hello, in a recent conversation I came across an important point that has stuck in my mind, and I wondered what your opinions as poker players might be?

The conversation goes a little something like this -
If we have a deck of cards and randomly shuffled them, after the shuffle, the dealing order is set, what will be dealt, will be aligned to seat order relative to deal order. The odds of any seat being dealt pocket aces are 1/221 from a single deck of 52 cards.

If we have a second deck of cards, the odds of any seat receiving aces from a different shuffled random deck are still 1/221.

Up to yet this is simple probabilities without any confusion.

The more tricky part goes something like this,

If we have 1000 decks of cards randomly shuffled, and placed the decks side by side in a line, several of those decks will hold, after the shuffle, a set sequence of each deck, that contains aces in you seat order of distribution of the sequence.

saying this visual

(deck1)(deck2)(deck3) ETC...................(deck1000)

The conversation continued something like -
If you were dealt every hand with a new deck every time, in order of the line, left to right, you are guaranteed to receive aces from several of the decks in your seat, (comparing to tourney play and sitting out not having effect on the deal).

Ok, that is understandable and the sequence of the deck is set for each deck after the shuffle, if you are on the small blind and deck 100 has an ace top card, that is what you get (obviously unknowingly the value until you are dealt it).

Continued - If we add a second table, the distribution is now altered and no longer are you guaranteed the aces you were guaranteed before in your seat position.

Ok, that makes sense, a second table changes the deck order or deck number you will receive,

Instead of deck 1,2,3,4,5,6, in order , we now may get deck 1, 4, 6,7,9, dependent to how fast each table plays and needs a new deck.

This is the thought that stuck with me, like the aces are pre-set to order, so are 72 and all other hands. My thought is that if deck 1,4,6,7,9 have all got 72 in set sequence order for my seat, then I would be seriously stuffed.

The conversation did continue about multi-tables and coolers etc, but I think you will get the idea,

thoughts please?

yes this is why the phrase "after so many hands everyone gets the same cards" or "luck equals out for everyone" is never necessarily true.

I ran several coin flip programs based on 1000 flips. All scenarios had a time where heads flipped at least 52 times in a row. If you only flipped a coin 52 times and bet on each of them that it would be tails, if you flip cycle landed in this black swan of a 'luck zone', in this world of 1000 flips, then you would lose every bet, and perhaps think that you were being cheated

it is possible that in your entire poker life you will never get pocket aces, though extremely rare, but the point is nothing is ever guaranteed in random events.

People may claim that they are in this black swan area of luck but most of the time they are not looking at the true numbers, but that doesnt mean it cant happen

#3

16th November 2016, 9:24 AM

Alex Sentsov [535]

Poker at: Pokerstars

Game: Holdem

Do not try to defeat the theory of probability. Examine it and go with its flow. And victory will come.