Friday, May 27, 2011

Auto parts maker Delphi Automotive has been in bankruptcy purgatory for years. That's about to change. The company filed for an initial public offering on Wednesday and set an initial $100 million target. This is an important development mainly due to the high concentration of prominent hedge funds that own stakes.

Heavy Hedge Fund Involvement

David Tepper's Appaloosa Management was originally one of the main sponsors of Delphi's reorganization plan in 2005 but pulled out and things fell through. Fast forward four years later and new hedge fund owners Silver Point Capital and Elliott Management took control of the situation as the company finally looked to complete the cleansing process through reorganization.

Greenlight Capital Takes Stake

As far as other current hedge funds involved, David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital recently took a stake in Delphi as noted in their recent letter to investors. The hedge fund wrote,

"Delphi Automotive is an automotive supplier that produces a broad range of highly engineered products for powertrain, safety, electronic and thermal technology solutions. Delphi exited bankruptcy in October 2009 and has emerged in very good shape, following an aggressive restructuring in which it sold 11 businesses, closed 41 sites, reduced its U.S. workforce from 46,000 to 5,000 and moved its hourly pension plan and other post- employment benefits obligations to the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC) and General Motors (GM). In addition, emerging markets have increased from 7% to 25% of sales.

The Partnerships established a position at an average price of $19,228 per share. To date, Delphi’s multiple class ownership structure has limited its ability to go public. However, on March 31, 2011, Delphi repurchased shares from both GM and the PBGC for $4.4 billion, thereby creating a one class structure. There has since been press speculation that Delphi will pursue a public offering later this year. As Delphi potentially re-enters the public market, we hope that the company will gain value recognition for the significant progress it has made through its restructuring. Delphi stock ended the quarter at $21,500 per share."

Dan Loeb's Third Point Owns Large Position

As noted in our recent post on Third Point's latest exposure levels, Delphi was one of their top positions as of the end of April. The hedge fund has owned a sizable stake for quite some time, so it will be interesting to see when they decide to eventually shed their stake.

Perry Capital Involved in the Past (Still Involved?)

Perry Capital originally purchased claims in Delphi late in the bankruptcy process. And in its fourth quarter 2010 letter to investors, the hedge fund had this to say about its stake in auto parts maker: "Our position in Delphi equity continued to march higher. The company has performed quite well since exiting bankruptcy and, despite significant appreciation, we continue to hold our position. Delphi is well positioned as an automotive supplier - diesel, power train, safety and infotainment - with the best balance sheet in the industry."

When Will They Cash In?

Given that Delphi is not yet publicly traded and that Perry hasn't mentioned it in other letters, it's hard to say if they still own a position two quarters later. Greenlight's commentary, on the other hand, makes it sound like they will hold through the IPO in hopes of further upside through market revaluation.

Regardless, there are a lot of other hedge funds involved that are glad to finally see Delphi emerge from its drawn-out bankruptcy process and go public. The question is, how many of them will be cashing in?

Oaktree Capital's Howard Marks is out with his latest missive entitled, "How Quickly They Forget." Warren Buffett says that when Marks' letters hit his desk, it's the first thing he reads. If that's not a good enough endorsement, we don't know what is. You can download a .pdf copy here.

Two days ago at the Ira Sohn Conference, Pershing Square's Bill Ackman pitched shares of Family Dollar (FDO) as an attractive investment. At the time, however, no one knew the exact size of his wager. Now, we do.

In an amended 13F filed with the SEC, Pershing Square Capital Management disclosed ownership of 5,764,187 shares of FDO. At current prices of around $55.50, that translates into almost a $320 million investment. Compared to the rest of Pershing's disclosed holdings, this represents about a 5% position.

Keep in mind, though, that this only represents his ownership stake as of March 31st. Since then, Ackman has been buying more shares. At the Ira Sohn Conference on Wednesday, he even mentioned his hedge fund was out buying shares that day. So, it's tough to say exactly how much larger his position is, but it is at the very least slightly larger than what is reported above.

The hedge fund manager thinks shares of Family Dollar are worth up to $92 (including dividends) and sees it as an attractive target for a leveraged buyout. You can see see the rest of Bill Ackman's portfolio in the brand new issue of our Hedge Fund Wisdom newsletter that was just released.

Wednesday, May 25, 2011

This is part 2 of our ongoing coverage of presentations given by top hedge fund managers at the Ira Sohn Conference today. Be sure to check out part 1 of our notes from Ira Sohn which includes presentations from Dinakar Singh, Jim Chanos, Phil Falcone and more.

Part 2:

Steve Eisman / FrontPoint Partners: Eisman was profiled in Michael Lewis' great book, The Big Short as one of the big winners in the subprime trade. Last year at Ira Sohn, he said to short for-profit education stocks and that trade paid off as many stocks were down anywhere from 25% to 72% over the past year.

This time around, Eisman focused on US financials, asking "are financials dead forever?" He notes that credit quality is improved but interest margins will most likely continue to contract.

Eisman likes property and casualty insurers, citing the potential for commercial policy pricing to improve. He noted that his year has been particularly hard hit with natural disasters, leading to large insurance losses. He thinks P&C insurers are a 'buy' even if there's another big disaster.

He says the least risky way to play this is via insurance brokers like Marsh & McLennan (MMC), Willis Group (WSH), and Aon (AON). You can read an in-depth analysis of AON in the free sample of our Hedge Fund Wisdom newsletter (direct .pdf download link).

For riskier plays, Eisman points to pure reinsurers based in Bermuda and pulled up a list of them, the most well-known of which is probably Ace (ACE).

Bill Ackman / Pershing Square Capital: Ackman said to buy Family Dollar (FDO). He likes the dollar-store chain because it is like Walmart, but there's room to grow. He also notes the company's solid return on capital as they can build plenty of new stores. Many of Ackman's plays are retail or real estate focused and this one is no different.

FDO actually received a bid to go private from Nelson Peltz's Trian Fund, who offered between $55 to $60 per share in February. They are one of the largest shareholders, owning almost 8% of FDO's shares. Ackman believes that FDO is an attractive target for a leveraged buyout.

Ackman notes that Family Dollar has fallen behind competitor Dollar General (DG) ever since KKR bought DG and now FDO has to improve. The Pershing Square manager thinks shares will trade as much as 70% higher (FDO currently trades around $55 and Ackman thinks it's worth up to $92 including dividends). He also mentioned that his hedge fund was even buying shares today.

Joel Greenblatt / Gotham Capital: The value investor talked about the advantage of having a long-term investment horizon. He emphasizes investments that fall under the 'time arbitrage' classification. Market Folly readers will recall that Blue Ridge Capital's founder and hedge fund manager John Griffin also uses this approach. He classifies investments as either time arbitrage or catalyst driven.

David Einhorn / Greenlight Capital: Einhorn's presentation laid out the bull case for life insurer Delta Lloyd (AMS: DL), traded in the Netherlands. This is one of his hedge fund's largest positions.

His second pick was Microsoft (MSFT). The tech giant has attracted lots of value investors as of late and you can view fellow hedge fund T2 Partners' presentation on MSFT here. Einhorn says the company still has a shot at the smartphone market with its partnership with Nokia (NOK). He also notes that it is trading at a discount as the market isn't giving them credit for their solid position in cloud computing.

Einhorn also said that CEO Steve Ballmer doesn't care what Wall Street thinks and that could possibly be a good thing. However, he conceded that Ballmer is "stuck in the past" and said that Ballmer's "continued presence is the biggest overhang on Microsoft's stock." It's very clear Einhorn wants Ballmer fired.

Carl Icahn / Icahn Partners: The legendary rabblerouser began his presentation by saying he's made a fortune by studying natural stupidity. Icahn said that "activism" in the old-school sense of the word is dead; there aren't anymore true corporate raiders anymore. He says that there's tons of money to be made by shaking things up at a company.

He went on to talk about why he returned outside investor capital in his funds. He simply didn't want to be responsible for the losses of others like he was during the 2008 crisis. Icahn fears further problems will arise in the markets in a year or two. His pitch at the conference? His holding company: Icahn Enterprises (IEP).

Mark Hart III / Corriente Advisors: If you're unfamiliar with Hart, then all you need to know is that he created subprime mortgage and sovereign debt funds well before the crises happened, profiting handsomely from the events that followed.

In his speech, Hart said to short China and this isn't the first time he's made this case. He argues that it is a credit fueled bubble and there are many misconceptions out there. It seems his conviction is high here as he says that China's bust will be much larger than the Asian crisis in the 90's.

Hart argues that inflation will end China's credit growth. This isn't the first time we've seen this argument. Hedge fund Kleinheinz Capital has in the past said that inflation is the biggest threat to emerging markets. Coincidentally, both Kleinheinz and Corriente operate out of Fort Worth, TX. Lastly, Hart mentioned he was buying puts on the renminbi.

Jeffrey Gundlach / DoubleLine: He used an Andy Warhol car crash painting as an illustration for the housing market. He said that Bank of America $BAC is a proxy for the ABX and says it's going lower. Gundlach likes natural gas.

Interestingly enough, Gundlach said that gold is too heavy to carry around to use as a form of currency to pay for things. Instead, he said to use gems to protect against a crash and uncertainty because they are more portable, noting that you can carry a ruby in your shoe. Gundlach prefers holding cash or gems instead of gold or silver.

As an aside, it's worth noting that diamond prices have been heading higher in recent months. They are not a publicly traded commodity and high demand from India and China seems to be driving prices there.

Marc Faber / Gloom Boom & Doom Report: Faber is very clearly not a fan of Ben Bernanke. He says that the Federal Reserve Chairman is a student of history regarding the Depression, but that Bernanke unfortunately doesn't know what caused it. Faber notes that as the Fed prints more money, cash and bonds obviously aren't good investments. He also joked that if everyone at Ira Sohn complained, Bernanke would come in and drop a trillion dollars right there.

Faber said not to own US government debt, even if the deflationists end up being right. He is also an advocate of owning gold but not storing it in one place. Faber says you need to store gold all over the world in Australia, Switzerland, etc. He also disputed Gundlach's notion to own gems over gold and said people will always value gold, even if you're in a jungle or desert because everyone knows what it is.

Steve Feinberg / Cerberus: He pitched residential mortgage backed securities (RMBS) as a compelling opportunity and labeled them 'cheap,' given the high amount of underwater loans and depressed home prices.

The Ira Sohn Conference is taking place today in New York and features an all-star line-up of hedge fund managers. This post features part 1 of our notes from their presentations. ***Update: We've also posted up part 2 of our notes from Ira Sohn as well.

Part 1:

Erez Kalir / Sabretooth Capital: His pick was a long of MBIA (MBI) as a 'favorably asymmetric' play. His presentation was entitled, "Economic Death as a Special Situation." He feels that MBIA has 100%-200% upside with only 30% downside at worst, so the risk/reward skew is favorable.

He also likes Argentina as a compelling investment arena since its default in the early 2000's. In particular, he's looking at energy exploration & production names. He points to stocks like YPF SA (YPF) and Crown Point Ventures (CWV).

On the topic of inflation hedging, Kalir doesn't like gold. In fact, he warned against owning it. He also dislikes shorting treasuries. Instead, he prefers to buy farmland. This stance no doubt echoes the sentiment of Jim Rogers, the ex-Quantum fund manager who has also been a staunch advocate of owning farmland. Additionally, we've detailed how subprime profiteer Michael Burry also bought farmland.

He says S needs to consolidate its two networks starting now with the next generation phones. Singh actually feels like the T-Mobile / AT&T (T) merger is good for Sprint because it removes their largest competitor. Singh notes that the US wireless market could offer defensiveness like utility stocks, but with the added benefit of growth. He thinks S could have 40-70% upside, saying its worth $8-14 per share (currently trading around $6).

TPG-Axon's leading man cited Zhongpin (HOGS) as a compelling investment due to its top line growth and the fact that it's trading at 7x earnings.

Singh also mentioned he thinks that Orkla (OSL: ORK) has a fair value of $65 to $80 as the company was mismanaged and restructuring could unlock value.

Jeff Aronson / Centerbridge Partners: His pick was to go long shares of CIT Group (CIT). This has been a hedge-fund-favorite as some of the largest owners also include Bruce Berkowitz's Fairholme Capital, Howard Marks' Oaktree Capital, David Einhorn's Greenlight Capital, Marc Lasry's Avenue Capital, and Dan Loeb's Third Point. Before Chapter 11, Centerbridge was buying CIT debt. Since then, they've been buying the equity.

Aronson says that the company's intrinsic book value is $59 per share and notes that they have $12 billion in cash on their balance sheet. He highlights that CIT has publicly stated it could buy a retail bank (whose deposits would boost earnings). As a takeout candidate, Centerbridge thinks CIT could be worth as much as $65 (shares trade around $41 currently.)

Robert Howard / KKR: Howard (representing KKR's new equity team) pitched shares of Wabco (WBC), a company that produces anti-lock braking systems among other things. He cites three major trends that WBC can benefit from: cyclical recovery (US & Europe trucking recovery), emerging market growth, as well as tighter safety rules. Howard mentions the company is often overlooked by investors too.

KKR's man also pitched HSN, Inc (HSNI), otherwise known as the Home Shopping Network. He likes their demographic of 30-55 year old women with solid annual income to spend. Howard thinks that John Malone's Liberty Media could make a play for the company too, as he points out that Liberty owns 30% of HSNI and all of QVC, the other major player in the shopping-via-television arena.

Phil Falcone / Harbinger Capital Partners: Falcone talked about his wireless venture, LightSquared. We've covered this play numerous times and while it's not publicly traded yet, Falcone says that it will be some day. Essentially, this is Harbinger's concentrated bet on a 4G network.

Numerous hedge funds have invested in the 'more mobile data usage' theme via various plays. Some have elected to buy the wireless tower operators like American Tower, (AMT), Crown Castle (CCI), and SBA Communications (SBAC). Falcone, on the other hand, has elected to straight up build out his own network as his hedge fund has morphed into a semi-private equity-like fund. He noted that they've accumulated spectrum and are looking at a 4G terrestrial network.

Falcone also likes Crosstex Energy (XTXI). We covered his investment in XTXI back in December and the Harbinger manager likes it due to its complex financial structure. A master limited partnership owns the assets and then XTXI owns that partnership. He drew attention to the fact that this isn't a company that pulls gas out of the ground, but rather a play on gas processing and transmission. Falcone thinks XTXI is worth double what it's trading at now or more (around $9.50 currently).

Jim Chanos / Kynikos Associates: The well-known short-seller attacked alternative energy 'green' plays with a presentation entitled, "Does Solar and Wind = Hot Air?" Chanos said that, "wind is 50% more expensive than natural gas, and solar is 4 times more expensive" and that natural gas prices have essentially shot an "economic arrow" into alternative energy.

In particular, Chanos mentioned Denmark-based Vestas (CPH:VWS or PINK: VWDRY), a company focused on wind power that might be worth looking at for a short.

However, he is most excited about shorting solar power via First Solar (FSLR), a company he believes has outdated technology. Chanos was recently on television talking negatively about this name as well. He points out that Spain and Italy utilize solar power the most. But, the problem there is that the demand is highly subsidized. Also, he points to the management exodus at FSLR as a warning sign for investors to exit shares.

Sunjay Gorawara / Investment Idea Contest Winner: This year's Ira Sohn featured an investment idea contest where the winner was able to present their idea to all attendees. Michael Price introduced the contest winner but while he was talking, he mentioned that Goldman Sachs (GS) could be a buy as it should be worth $100 more than where it currently trades. And in general, he was bullish on financials.

Judges Bill Ackman, David Einhorn, Michael Price, and Joel Greenblatt selected the winning entry of Bridgepoint Education (BPI) from an undergraduate student at Indiana University who will be interning at JP Morgan this summer.

Tuesday, May 24, 2011

Here's your chance to see a full past issue of MarketFolly's premium newsletter, Hedge Fund Wisdom. Hopefully this gives you an idea as to the high quality research and in-depth nature of the newsletter.

The above download is a past issue. Our brand new 91-page issue was just released! If you like what you see, make sure to take advantage of our low introductory pricing before prices go up on June 30th. Save 33% instantly by clicking here.

John Thaler's hedge fund JAT Capital has been buying shares of Sina Corp (SINA) hand over fist. Per a 13G filed with the SEC, the hedge fund has disclosed a 5.6% ownership stake in SINA with 3,384,385 shares.

JAT has doubled its position and then some in the past few weeks as they only owned 1,455,995 shares at the end of March. And before that at the end of December, they only held 513,920 shares. Over the past six months, JAT Capital has ramped up its position by almost 560%.

Social Media Investing Boom

Sina Corp is at the crossroads of two hot investing trends: social media and China. SINA is essentially the 'Twitter of China' and with the recent LinkedIn (LNKD) IPO, the social media investing boom is here. By the way, don't forget to follow @marketfolly on Twitter for intra-day commentary and further hedge fund coverage.

Per Google Finance, Sina Corp is "an online media company and MVAS provider in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the global Chinese communities. The Company provides services through five business lines, including SINA.com (online news and content), SINA Mobile (MVAS), SINA Community (Web 2.0 and social networking-based services and games), SINA.net (search and enterprise services), and SINA E-Commerce (online shopping)."

About John Thaler/JAT Capital

Before founding JAT Capital in 2007, Thaler worked at Shumway Capital Partners where he was responsible for covering technology, media and telecom and he managed the internal Omni fund. Prior to that, he worked in private equity at Spectrum Equity Investors.

Due to this experience, it should come as no surprise that Thaler employs a fundamental research process and private equity-like approach to investing with an emphasis on tech. Thaler earned his BA in Economics from the University of Chicago.

In 2008, JAT returned -5.9% (compared to -37% for the S&P) and in 2009, Thaler's fund returned 23.2% gross.

James Crichton and Adam Weiss' hedge fund Scout Capital just filed a 13G with the SEC on shares of Sensata Technologies (ST). Based on portfolio activity on May 13th, 2011, Scout has disclosed a 5.02% ownership stake in ST with 8,750,000 shares.

At the end of the first quarter (March 31st), Crichton and Weiss' hedge fund owned 8,200,000 shares so this marks only a 6.7% increase in their position size.

However, Scout just revealed their position in Sensata equity as a new holding in the first quarter. As such, all of their buying in the name has been within the past five months. They also recently started an Arcos Dorados stake (ARCO).

Scout isn't the only hedge fund that has recently disclosed a position in Sensata equity. As noted in the brand new issue of our newsletter, John Griffin's Blue Ridge Capital started a new stake in the quarter and Alan Fournier's Pennant Capital was adding to its position as well.

Per Google Finance, Sensata Technologies is "The Company is engaged in the development, manufacture and sale of sensors and controls. It produces a range of sensors and controls for mission-critical applications, such as thermal circuit breakers in aircraft, pressure sensors in automotive systems, and bimetal current and temperature control devices in electric motors."

John Griffin's hedge fund Blue Ridge Capital has filed a 13G with the SEC on shares of Level 3 Communications (LVLT). Due to portfolio activity on May 13th, Blue Ridge has disclosed a 5.74% ownership stake in LVLT with 97,805,000 shares.

This marks a whopping 434% increase in their position size. Griffin's firm owned 18,305,000 shares back on March 31st, so the recent addition took place somewhere within the past two months. We've just detailed the rest of Blue Ridge's updated portfolio in the new issue of our newsletter: Hedge Fund Wisdom.

Per Google Finance, Level 3 Communications is "is engaged in the communications business. The Company is a facilities based provider of a range of integrated communications services."

Monday, May 23, 2011

Soros Fund Management just filed a 13G with the SEC regarding shares of Microstrategy (MSTR). Per portfolio activity on May 10th, George Soros' firm has disclosed a 5.67% ownership stake in MSTR with 454,595 shares.

This marks a 34% increase in their position size. Back on March 31st, they owned only 338,384 shares. Per Google Finance, Microstrategy "is a worldwide provider of business intelligence software that enables companies to report, analyze and monitor the data stored across their enterprise."

We just detailed George Soros' updated portfolio and you can view the rest of his investments in our new issue of Hedge Fund Wisdom that was just released yesterday.

Market strategist Jeff Saut's latest commentary is out and he focuses on some of his favorite investment ideas. They are:

Wiliams Companies (WMB): He writes that, "Our bullish thesis on Williams is supported by three main points: (1) we believe the company's E&P assets will garner a higher valuation in the market place as a stand-alone entity when the company splits itself into two parts; (2) we believe the market is undervaluing Williams' ownership of the Williams Partner GP, and (3) we expect strong growth from the Canadian midstream assets."

Market Folly readers will recall that Dan Loeb's Third Point outlined this exact WMB thesis as well, as the stock seems to be a hedge-fund-favorite.

Clayton Williams (CWEI): Saut notes, "What does set Clayton Williams apart from the rest of the group is its highly oil-weighted production profile (74%), growing position in high-return oil plays (namely the Permian and Delaware Basin), and cheap valuation. Raymond James Analyst John Freeman last week reiterated his Outperform rating on Clayton Williams and stated that he viewed any pressure in the stock as a buying opportunity."

In his commentary, Saut also explains the rationale behind bullishness on shares of Iberiabank (IBKC), and Equinix (EQIX).

He also points out some of the latest hedge fund moves from 13F filings. While he notes that HCA Holdings (HCA) was one of the largest new buys in the past quarter, he fails to mention that it was because the company had its initial public offering. To see what hedge funds have been buying, we of course point you the new 91-page issue of our Hedge Fund Wisdom newsletter.

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