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Comments from “Plugged-In” Readers

That’s hilarious that some 2005 sucker paid $770K for for 458 Edinburgh. Probably didn’t use any of his own money, though.
[Editor’s Note: Far from hilarious as far as we’re concerned. And even if the property was purchased with other people’s money, consider the impact the sale (i.e., industry “comp”) had on other buyers in 2005 (and beyond).]

It’s easy for an “anon” to say that losing that much money is “hilarious”. Sad is what I would call it. Many people got sucked into the bubble, and it wasn’t only other people’s money they lost. A shred of compassion would be appreciated.

7×7 just covered Excelsior and Mission Terrace and it got us looking at the area on redfin. We are two techies that can pay a heck of a lot more for a place than these areas (double), but the west half of the Mission (our first choice) is very competitive for SFH’s. The proximity to the BART line and easy commute to Mountain View & Downtown is alluring.
What are we missing -it seems like a 1/2 off sale in Mission Terrace right now (with a short BART ride to all the food we want to live near).
Plugged in people please help- we are looking to buy soon and never would have considered this area before. Looking at the housing availability and proximity to South Bay/City it looks like an area to consider. We must be missing something…

easily the best chart i’ve ever seen.
unfortunate for those that didn’t do their due diligence, but definitely something for those on the sidelines to consider. 36% increase over 10-years . . . 3.15% per year . . .if year 2000 is your benchmark for pre-bubble and you believe in 3% appreciation/inflation per year, you would be roughly net-even.

Yikes. Looks like the REO Ratio* still stands at 3 to 1 in this neighborhood. That’s three houses in some state of foreclosure for every one currently for sale. In another words, lots of pent up supply.
*REO Ratio = # of Foreclosures/(# of homes for sale). Note that some of the “foreclosures” (NODs, NOTS and actual REOs) stand a chance of being cured before being put on the auction block.

Househunter
We looked in Sunnyside, Glen Park and a little in Mission Terrace a few years ago. For us, these neighborhoods started to seem less city, and more suburb… this is fine, but if we were interested in moving to the suburbs, there seemed to be plenty of great suburbs to choose from (with more space).
Also – A big consideration for me was sun. Despite its name, Sunnyside is in the fogbelt (and likely Mission Terrace as well).
We moved to the “inner” mission because it was walkable/bartable/bikeable, has tons of bars/restaurants/takeout and has the best sun in the city.
One of us commutes to the penninsula so location on the SE side of the city was key. Another consideration was a commercial strip. Noe has 24th, Mission has Valencia (and varios others), Bernal has cortland, Potrero has 18th. Dolores Park was a big draw for us. Some things to consider – Good Luck!

@househunter – I live in Mission Terrace and can only say good things. Great neighborhood feel, lots of families (if that’s your thing), park and pool nearby (the pool is old, but Balboa Park is about to get a major overhaul), many of the houses have big lots, easy transportation everywhere (by car, bus, train, BART). Mission Street out here definitely resists gentrification, but there are some good restaurants, cafes and local joints. There is an interesting mix of cultures, ages, family circumstances etc. Mission Terrace is definitely more expensive than Excelsior (which is generally defined as east of Mission Street up the hill), but also is flatter, the houses are nicer and more detached, and the yards generally are bigger. I bought in 2002, and prices are about what they were in 2004.
Thanks SS for posting this data – I was wondering how things were fairing and this shows the story pretty well.

@anon
I think your analysis is spot on, but it all depends on what househunter is looking for. He or she would pay a hefty premium to get equivalent square footage in the Inner Mission vs. Mission Terrace, and likely higher “urbanity” in terms of crime, trash, attached housing etc. Walking/biking isn’t a problem (I ride downtown 2-3x per week almost exclusively on bike lanes), and Noe Valley/Glen Park are a short walk or J Church ride away. Excelsior is definitely grittier and amenities are harder to get to.

Househunter, I think the comments above re Mission Terrace are accurate. It’s a decent area but a bit sleepy (and a hefty dose of grit closer to Mission). But you prefer the Inner Mission? Then rent a nice place there for a couple years and enjoy life and avoid an expensive mistake. Look at the trend line in the chart. That is not reversing any time soon — pay attention to EBGuy’s comment about distressed inventory in this area. You may be able to afford the neighborhood you really like after a couple more years of price declines.

Looked at Mission terrace when we were hunting, too much Mission, not enough Terrace. Settled in Sunnyside, have a large (for the city) flat south-facing yard of a wide quiet street, kids are happy. Seems sunnier than when we lived in Inner Sunset.

Thank you for all of the advice!
It sounds like we should look south for options, but be patient over the summer to see if the right place opens up in the Mission.
We have been looking in the area between VanNess/Church and 17th/25th and have recently expanded our search to LaLengua and the Duboce park area. Along with ease of access to the Penninsula and Downtown, walkscore, one car parking and space for a small garden are our top considerations.
Getting a mulitfamily with rents in the other units is tempting (seems easier to find), but there are so many horror stories about being a landlord in SF that we have decided to expand our search area first.

One issue with Mission Terrace is the proximity to the freeway; many of the houses seem a bit close to me. Is it a problem for noise, dirt and fumes?
Also, you’ve got to cross the freeway to reach BART and many of the place you might want to reach.
Still, it does seem like the nicest part of the Outer Mission.

Lived there for 10 years. Have South facing yard, 2bd 1 bath barrel bungalow with craftsman details great views of downtown. Love our place. Great neighbors, no issues (homeless, drugs prostition, noise. gangs etc). Homes are worth $400-$600 k depending where you are. Easy commutes etc. I actually rent the house out to some techies from Apple for $2400 month. They love it. Only problem is weather: gets hot in Summer. To Sum up: diverse and quiet middle class SF. Nothing f=goes up forever, nothing goes down forever. If you can afford it and like t=it buy it to live in, not invest.

Househunter, yes, La Lengua (the Valencia/Mission flatland triangle south of Chavez) may be a good option. Also parts of the Precita, northwest and west Bernal neighborhoods are walking distance to the Mission and 24th St BART, and are sunny, with mostly SFRs and mostly quiet streets.

On the block Tuesday, July 6 (according to PS):
258 Moscow Street (2/1, 1237 sq.ft.) Looks like the owner managed almost a refi per year after buying it for $252k in 1998.
Thursday July 8:
618 Paris Street (4/3, 1532 sq.ft.) Currently listed as a short sale for $515k. Bought for $830k in 2007.