The Democrats have gotten closer since last month, though, so let’s see what the damage is to Republican hopes:

Category

D

R

2008 two party split

56

44

Rasmussen two party split June 6

44

56

Rasmussen two party split July 11

46

54

So the swing from 2008 is now from a D+12 to an R+8, or a 20 point swing, down 4 from early June*. A 20 point swing toward the Republicans carried into every district from 2008 would yield a 57 seat Republican gain from that year, and a 235-200 majority.

So the news is better for Democrats, but not what one might call good.

* Last time I had it 22 points, not 24, due to a difference in rounding of the 2008 two party split.