NBA TV analyst Steve Smith said, “The only reason I said they will make the playoffs is if (other teams) have injuries. Right now, with Pau Gasol out, they don't have a chance. It’s a wrap.”

TNT analyst Kenny Smith was just as down on their chances: “Zero chance at making the playoffs.”

Hall of Famer Charles Barkley was, naturally, the most definitive. “The Lakers had zero chance of making the playoffs before those guys got hurt,” he said. “Now, it’s negative-17.”

If that seems particularly harsh, it is. The Lakers have obviously backed themselves into a corner, and they may not be able to get out of it. But certainly their chances are considerably better than negative-17, or zero for that matter.

While it is true they have been a colossal disappointment, they are 10th in the Western Conference, and it’s not an impossible task to make up two spots in the standings.

Still, history shows that it isn’t easy to make that kind of second-half rally. Generally, if you’re going to finish in the Top 8 in the conference, you’re already in the Top 8 at the All-Star break.

In the last 10 years, four teams have been in 10th place or lower in the Western Conference at the All-Star break and gone on to make the playoffs. But each has an asterisk.

Last year, Utah did it, but that was a lockout-shortened schedule, so a comeback was not nearly as difficult as it would be for the Lakers. The last team before Utah was Golden State, which hit the All-Star break in 11th place in 2007 but wound up in the No. 8 spot. That year, the Warriors were sparked by the acquisition of Stephen Jackson. Similarly, the Kings rallied from No. 11 into the playoffs in ’06 and did so because they dealt for another troubled Pacer, Ron Artest.

The Nuggets were in 10th place in 2005 but got in. They didn’t make a trade, but that was the year they dumped coach Jeff Bzdelik, hired George Karl and finished the season on a 32-8 run.

If history is a guide, then, the Lakers need to make a trade, hire a new coach or hope for an in-season lockout that shortens the schedule. Losing Gasol means there’s not likely to be a significant trade in L.A., and as wishy-washy as the front office has been, it’s highly unlikely it’ll make yet another coaching change.

So the lockout thing might be their best bet.

Or, they could simply play better, and count on the two teams ahead of them to sag. That’s not out of the question. The Lakers are 23-27 heading into Friday’s game in Charlotte, meaning they need to go 18-14 to get to .500 by year’s end. That probably won’t be enough, though—more likely, the Lakers would need at least 42 wins to reach the playoffs, or a record of 19-13.

That would require the two teams ahead of L.A., the Portland Trail Blazers and Houston Rockets, to fall behind the Lakers, and the two teams behind them (the Dallas Mavericks and Minnesota Timberwolves) to continue their struggles. Catching the Blazers shouldn’t be too difficult, because the team has a historically awful bench (Luke Babbitt is the top reserve, averaging 4.3 points on 35.4 percent shooting) that puts too much stress on the starters, and their reliance on point guard Damian Lillard will be costly if/when he hits the rookie wall.

The Rockets are tougher to figure, because—well, because they’ve been tough to figure all season. They’ve had two winning streaks of five games, but they’ve also had a seven-game losing streak. The Lakers have to hope that the load James Harden, a career sixth man in OKC, has been carrying will catch up with him in the second half, and that the Rockets will slump.

The Lakers play the Rockets on the final day of the regular season, and if they were to win that game, they’d even up the season series and probably be in a position to earn the tiebreaker, thanks to Houston’s poor record against the West (10-18 right now).

The history and the other teams involved in getting into the playoffs in the Western Conference are one thing, though. None of it matters unless the Lakers simply start playing better.