Analysis chronicles changes in US investment in R&D

The distribution of U.S. investment in research and development (RD) across countries and industries has undergone a dramatic shift since the 1990s, with RD becoming less concentrated geographically and growing rapidly in less developed markets such as China and India. The phenomenon of RD globalization is also distinguished by its concentration in the domains of software and information technology (IT). In this context, a new analysis examines how changes in innovation within firms and a shortage of human capital in the United States in the fields of software and IT have driven U.S. multinational companies to establish and expand new innovation hubs abroad.

The analysis, by researchers at Carnegie Mellon University and Georgetown University, was published as a working paper by the National Bureau of Economic Research. “Our findings support the view that the globalization of U.S. multinational RD has reinforced the technological leadership of U.S.-based firms in the information technology domain,” notes Lee G. Branstetter, professor of economics and public policy at Carnegie Melon University’s Heinz College of Information Systems and Public Policy, who led the study. “And that multinationals’ ability to access a global talent base could support a high rate of innovation even in the presence of the rising human resource cost of frontier RD.”

The analysis documents three important issues: the growing globalization of RD, the increasing importance of software and IT to firms’ innovation, and the rise of new RD hubs and the differences in the types of activity done there. The researchers argue that these are not separate issues but are closely related, and that the shift toward increasing reliance on software and IT in innovation is driving multinational corporations abroad in search of scarce talent.

Based on their analysis, the researchers conclude that the United States is experiencing constraints on the supply of human capital in the fields of software and IT, which limit the possibilities for U.S.-based multinational firms to be innovative. Global flows of investment, people, and ideas could help relax these constraints to some extent, they suggest, raising growth, productivity, and consumption possibilities worldwide. However, since the 1990s, the U.S. labor market has become more closed to immigration, which, in some cases, has spurred firms to shift some of their RD to the places from which they had recruited engineers. Education policies could also expand the supply of IT and software workers in the United States, they suggest.

The authors also document a sharp rise in outbound foreign direct investment focused on RD at a time when U.S. and other political leaders have assailed such investment for weakening U.S. production, employment, and growth. In contrast, the authors’ work suggests that the globalization of RD by U.S. multinationals will strengthen these U.S.-based firms, by enabling them to continue to innovate in the face of human capital constraints.

“To the extent that the rapidly growing investments in global RD networks are rational, they provide a new reason for worry that policymakers around the world are rejecting globalization,” according to Britta M. Glennon, Ph.D. student at?Heinz College, who coauthored the study. “If a greater globalization of RD is required to maintain a flow of innovations in the domains where technological opportunity is greatest, then de-globalization could have severe consequences for the future trajectory of growth and living standards.”

###

The study was funded by the National Science Foundation.

Summarized from a working paper by the National Bureau of Economic Research, The IT Revolution and the Globalization of RD by Branstetter, LG (Carnegie Mellon University), Glennon, BM (Carnegie Mellon University), and Jensen, JB (Georgetown University). Copyright 2018. All rights reserved.

About Carnegie Mellon University’s Heinz College

The Heinz College of Information Systems and Public Policy is home to two internationally recognized graduate-level institutions at Carnegie Mellon University: the School of Information Systems and Management and the School of Public Policy and Management. This unique colocation combined with its expertise in analytics set Heinz College apart in the areas of cybersecurity, health care, the future of work, smart cities, and arts entertainment. In 2016, INFORMS named Heinz College the number one academic program for Analytics Education. For more information, please visit http://www.heinz.cmu.edu.