Poll puts Labor deep in the danger zone

Labor strategists – and bookmakers setting the odds on the 2010 election – will be looking at one number from Newspoll. That’s its reading on Labor’s primary vote in the latest poll, published on Friday in The Australian.

Labor’s primary vote, according to Newspoll, has softened by three percentage points in the past week, down to 35 per cent with those three points going straight to the Coalition which is up three points to 44 per cent.

This is potentially very bad news for Labor on the eve of polling and brings into focus the challenge facing the incumbent in the last 24-hours of campaigning.

If the apparent shift in the primary vote number was carried forward into the polling booth on Saturday, we would be looking at a possible – even likely – change of government. At the least, such a low primary would ensure a knife-edge conclusion to this campaign.

Labor number crunchers watch primary vote intentions like hawks on the basis that anything “without a ‘4’ in front of it’’ spells danger. Labor’s primary vote in its 2007 victory was above 43 per cent.

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The Newspoll numbers, accepting a margin of error of between 2-3 percent, are ominous for Labor, to say the least.

On a two-party preferred basis, the poll shows Labor and the Coalition neck-and-neck at 50 per cent each with the former down two points since the last poll and the latter up two.

This narrowing of the margin will be cold comfort for Labor knowing it is facing big swings against it in three states – New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia – where the bulk of contestable seats are concentrated.

Julia Gillard is drawing swings towards Labor in Victoria and South Australia, but pickings in these states are slim for the incumbent compared with a target rich environment for the Coalition in the locations north of the Murray and west of the Nullabor.

The latest apparent shift in voting intentions is another wrinkle in what has been an odd campaign, but sentiment seems to have moved – almost imperceptibly – towards the Coalition in the past 24 hours.

A protest vote against Labor may be developing a bit of a life of its own. If this is the case, it would be bad news indeed for the Labor Party.

Tony Abbott should be given credit for a strong finish to his campaign (he will not die wondering whether he might have done more).

Gillard has also given it her all, but in the past day or so she has lost some of her zip. She now believes she is in the “fight of my life’’ whereas before she might have been saying it for effect.

Gillard is fighting not simply to secure re-election, but for her own political legacy as the once loyal deputy who knifed her leader and then ran the risk of leading her party and government to defeat.

Defeat would be a devastating outcome for a woman whose political trajectory has moved smoothly upwards since her election to parliament in 1998. Dumping Kevin Rudd would be seen to have been a mistake, and her decision to rush to the polls after having done so would be questioned.

The Gillard aura would be seriously tarnished and along with it the reputations of others who were party to the plot to bring down a prime minister.

But this is all far from over. Polling indicates a significant pool of undecideds – according to Morgan pollster Michele Levine up to 22 per cent of voters don’t make up their minds until the last moment – and these may opt in the end for the devil they know.

Labor’s anxiety was underscored overnight by the “strategic’’ leak of internal polling to demonstrate how finely balanced is this campaign. Labor strategists will have done this to remind potential Labor supporters of the stakes involved.

Labor has been warning of the risks of Abbott “sliding’’ into office partly on a protest vote. Polling indicates these fears are not groundless.

Other polling indicates that Labor is holding on to its two-party preferred advantage. Galaxy in News Limited tabloids has Labor leading 52-48 per cent, and so does the latest Morgan poll.

But the bottom line is that Labor needs to boost its primary vote above or close to 40 per cent or face the prospect of enduring a very long night on Saturday.