Ondrej Palat

While recency bias has hockey fans looking back on the Tampa Bay Lightning’s season as a failure due to their shocking early playoff exit, in reality the team was historically good, winning 62 games en route to 128 points and an easy President’s Trophy win. In general, most teams who enjoy that level of success would look to change as little as possible, even with the postseason disappointment. Last year’s Stanley Cup-winning Washington Capitals have become the standard for staying the course and, by all accounts, the Lightning expect to follow in their footsteps and avoid the temptation to make sweeping changes.

So what does Tampa do about this situation? The aforementioned cap dump seems a near certainty, as veteran forward Ryan Callahanis expected to be traded or bought out this summer. A buy out could give the Lightning the wiggle room to re-sign one of the four pending UFA’s, while a trade could either open up cap space or allow the team to bring in a blue liner with a bad contract like Callahan’s. Yet, Callahan alone is not the only move that the Bolts could make before next season. Smith mentions Miller as the easiest forward to trade away, as his trade protection does not kick in until the new league year on July 1st. Johnson, Palat, and Alex Killornall have full or limited No-Trade Clauses, making them harder to deal, but still expendable regardless. In moving any of those four valuable forwards – or even Point if negotiations reach an impasse – the Bolts would likely be able to land a talented defenseman in return.

Outside of Callahan though, the Lightning do not have to make other trades to form a capable defense. Internally, they already have a promising top-four in veteran stars Hedman and McDonagh and promising young rearguards Mikhail Sergachevand Erik Cernak. AHL standout Cal Footewill also challenge for a job in camp, while the team will almost certainly target a defenseman with the 27th overall pick in the first round this year, who could push for an NHL spot right away if they’re lucky. Moving Callahan, if salary does not come back in return, could enable the team to re-sign Rutta, likely the cheapest option of the four, or perhaps Coburn or Girardi on hometown discounts. It is hard to imagine Stralman being within their price range or any two returning. Yet, affordable options will also exist on the free agent market, as many players may be willing to sign for less for a shot at the Cup in Tampa Bay. Veteran UFA options who could come in under $2MM or so include Michael Del Zotto, Adam McQuaid, Ben Lovejoy, and Roman Polak, among others.

The only certainty when it comes to Tampa’s defense this season is that it will not look the same as it did last year. There is simply no financial way for the team to maintain the depth and balance on the blue line that this unit had, but some savvy moves this off-season could still keep the defense just as strong. How the team handles Point, Callahan, and the free agency and trade markets will be one of the more intriguing story lines this summer and could dictate whether the Bolts are able to follow the Capitals’ model and stay the course toward a championship following postseason disappointment.

The Arizona Coyotes missed out on the postseason this year by a mere four points. While a success overall for the rebuilding club, the Coyotes struggled greatly on offense. The team’s 209 goals for were tied for third-worst in the NHL and their 16.3% power play success rate was sixth-worst. Behind stellar goaltending from Darcy Kuemperand strong team defense, the team largely got the job done, but they need to improve their scoring if they want to take the next step.

I think to understand what we need to do to improve is pretty simple: We need to score more goals. I think anytime someone’s going through and trying to diagnose what you need to do to take that next step, that’s not the complicated part or complex part. I think what we need to understand and work through is, how do we score more goals? How do we create more offense, while maintaining that fundamental foundation of being a good stingy, defensive team.

Among the top options – albeit unlikely – for the Coyotes on the free agent market would be Columbus Blue Jackets stars Artemi Panarinand Matt Duchene, Buffalo Sabres’ standout Jeff Skinner, or any of the New York Islanders’ trio of Anders Lee, Jordan Eberle, and Brock Nelson. All of these forwards are prime talents, but may not be available to Arizona. Both Skinner and Lee are expected to re-sign with their current teams, as could Eberle or Nelson, while Panarin and Duchene are likely outside the Coyotes’ price range. More accessible free agent scorers could include Ryan Dzingel, Gustav Nyquist, Wayne Simmonds, or Brett Connolly, one or two of which would be a major boost to Arizona’s offense.

Either by signing or trade, the Coyotes are likely to add a prominent forward or two and are expected to target wingers rather than centers. Arizona will be a team to watch this off-season as they target several of the aforementioned top names.

While the Toronto Maple Leafs are still without injured defenseman Jake Gardiner, the team will get some defensive help as head coach Mike Babcock said that the Toronto Marlies’ top defensmean, Calle Rosen, is expected to join the Maple Leafs in New York on Monday and jump into Toronto’s lineup immediately, according to TSN’s Mark Masters.

The 25-year-old Rosen has put up a big season in the AHL as he has seven goals and 46 points in 54 games this season and was signed to a two-year extension in December to keep him with the team at a cheap price with the general belief that Rosen will be a solid, inexpensive option who can provide the team with the depth they need over the next couple of years.

Babcock said that Rosen, who hadn’t been called up yet after suffering a foot injury several weeks ago, will stay in the lineup until Gardiner is ready to return.

The Tampa Bay Lightning are expected to get back winger Ondrej Palat on Saturday after he was forced to leave Monday’s game against Boston with an upper-body injury, according to Tampa Bay Times’ Mari Faiello. The forward took a big hit from the Bruins’ Connor Clifton in the first period and did not return. He then missed Tuesday’s practice, but skated on Friday and again this morning and is expected to return to the lineup without having missed a game, taking the place of Ryan Callahan, who will be a healthy scratch.

The Ottawa Senators will be without defenseman Mark Borowiecki on Saturday, as he has been ruled out with an upper-body injury, according to NHL.com’s Craig Medaglia. While the 29-year-old is listed as day-to-day, the injury isn’t considered to be too serious and he is expected to return before the season ends. “It shouldn’t keep him out too long,” said the coach this morning. “Unfortunately he will not be able to play for us this evening.” The team also expects that forward Zack Smith is expected to return to the lineup tonight against Toronto.

The Buffalo Sabres announced that veteran forward Vladimir Sobotka will be out Saturday with an upper-body injury. The 31-year-old Sobotka hasn’t had the season that many had hoped for when Buffalo picked him up this summer as part of a package for center Ryan O’Reilly. Sobotka, who recorded 11 goals and 31 points last season in St. Louis, has just five goals and 13 points this season in 69 games.

Tampa Bay Lightning head coach Jon Cooperannounced that winger Ondrej Palat is not expected to play Sunday, but after that the 27-year-old is expected to be listed as “day-to-day” and could be back soon. Palat hasn’t played since Oct. 26 when he left the game with a lower body injury and subsequently was listed out for at least four weeks. That seems about right as the team could get him back at some point this week.

Palat has appeared in just nine games this season and has failed to find the back of the net as he has just five assists in that span. The team needs the winger to return and re-establish himself in the team’s top-six as he also dealt with injuries last year as he played in 56 games, tallying only 11 goals.

Cooper also added that defenseman Anton Stralman is being re-evaluated and will be out Sunday. The 32-year-old hasn’t played since Nov. 8 with an undisclosed injury. Stralman has eight points in 16 games.

The Ottawa Sun’s Bruce Garrioch reports that center Jean-Gabriel Pageau, who has been out all season with a torn Achilles muscle, continues to make amazing progress as he joined the team on their four-game road trip in New York and skated with the team Sunday in a non-contact jersey. Despite a six-month timetable in mid-September, Pageau looks closer and closer to returning to the team quite a bit earlier than the original diagnosis. Garrioch also notes that Mark Stone, Colin White and Mark Borowiecki all took part in skating Sunday.

The Athletic’s Ian Tulloch (subscription required) breaks down the play of many of the Toronto Maple Leafs from Saturday’s game. Of note, Tulloch writes that one necessity in the near future is that Toronto must find a way to find a spot in their top-four for defenseman Travis Dermott. The 21-year-old is only averaging 17:53 of ATOI, but has been used more and more, getting 23:06 of ice time Saturday. The scribe adds that Dermott has developed into the team’s top defenseman and the Toronto needs to make adjustments accordingly, which means cutting playing time for struggling blueliners Ron Hainsey and Nikita Zaitsev.

It looks like the break that Tuukka Rask took a week ago has been paying off for the netminder. Rask has had three impressive starts since taking a critical weekend off earlier this month, including a .938 save percentage in his three appearances since his return, according to the Boston Globe’s Kevin Paul Dupont.

Palat, 27, is in the second season of his long-term deal with the team, and so far hasn’t been able to provide quite the value they were expecting. After recording 52 points in 2016-17, last season was a down year due to injury limiting him to just 56 contests. Missing four weeks already this year threatens to make it a similar outcome, especially given that Palat is still searching for his first goal. The talented winger could be the team’s best defensive forward—a title that Brayden Point is pushing to claim—but could be limited to fewer than 15 goals in consecutive seasons depending on how the rest of the year turns out. Four weeks would keep Palat out for an additional 15 games, meaning the most he could possibly play this season is 61.

It’s a troubling trend for a player that is such an important part to the Tampa Bay attack, as Palat hasn’t played more than 75 games in a season since 2013-14. That was his first full-time chance in the NHL, and still stands as his career-high in goal scoring with 23. Though he’s been an excellent playoff contributor and provides flexibility by being a fit in multiple spots throughout the lineup, the team needs him on the ice more consistently if they want to really get any return value on his $5.3MM cap hit. Because of the unusual structure of his deal, he’s actually earning $6.855MM in salary this year.

Lightning winger Ondrej Palat is not recovering well from the lower-body injury he sustained in late October. Accordingly, the team has decided to shut him down for a couple of weeks with the hope that some rest will help the issue, notes Joe Smith of The Athletic (Twitter link). However, he’s not expected to need surgery. The Czech winger has yet to score in nine games this season but has collected five assists.

Meanwhile, Smith adds that defenseman Victor Hedman won’t suit up on Thursday night but is nearing a return to the lineup. He has been out since sustaining an upper-body injury on October 26th and will be a welcome addition to the Lightning’s back end as their number one blueliner.

More injury notes from around the league:

Although Avalanche center J.T. Compher is skating on his own, he is not progressing from a concussion he sustained in mid-October, head coach Jared Bednar told Ryan Goulding of the Denver Post. Accordingly, there is no timetable for his return. The 23-year-old was off to a strong start to his season before the injury, collecting three goals and an assist through his first five games. Meanwhile, Goulding adds that winger Sven Andrighetto has also resumed skating and could be available to play on their upcoming two-game road trip that begins on Friday.

Blues defenseman Jay Bouwmeester was listed as a scratch on Tuesday but head coach Mike Yeo indicated to reporters, including Jim Thomas of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, that Bouwmeester is still dealing with hip soreness. Accordingly, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him sit for a few games to see if the rest helps with the pain. It has been a rough couple of seasons for the veteran on the injury front and hip troubles cost him the final 16 games of 2017-18. Louis has some defensive depth but given Bouwmeester’s situation, it’s unlikely they’ll want to deal from that anytime soon.

Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2018-19 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Entry Level Contracts

After a impressive rookie campaign, the Lightning knew they had a special player in Point, who proceeded to have a breakout year as the team’s second-line center. Point, who is good enough to be a No. 1 center, provided the team with a 32-goal, 66-point season. Now in his third year, Point could really walk away with a huge payday if he can equal or even better on that performance this year. Cirelli looks to have the third-line center spot locked down after the 21-year-old had a successful, but short stint, last season. He posted five goals and 11 points in 18 games last season and played in all 17 games of the playoffs, adding a pair of goals.

Sergachev has two years remaining on his contract and the 20-year-old defenseman had an up and down season, but still posted a nine-goal, 40-point season. He did have trouble getting regular minutes as the team often lost faith in his defensive play along with some immaturity issues. Regardless, the left-handed shot actually proved to head coach Jon Cooper that he can play on the right side, solving their depth issues on the right side. Sergachev should continue to develop his skills and also be in line for a big payday in two years.

For a team known for its defensive depth on its defense, it’s a little shocking to see that they only have three players signed after the 2018-19 season. Almost all of the team’s defense become free agents, restricted or otherwise, including Stralman, Coburn, Girardi, Koekkoek and Dotchin. With the team heavily laden in long-term deals, the team might be willing to allow Stralman, Coburn and Girardi to walk at the end of the year. All three are solid players, but there might not be any cap room to extend any of them, especially if the team has to give long-term deals to both Sergachev and Point. Stralman’s situation will be the most interesting as he’s a solid defenseman that complements his partner quite well and was the veteran who mentored Sergachev last season. Coburn and Girardi are likely expendable. Koekkoek and Dotchin will only be restricted free agents, but neither got a lot of playing time with the team, especially after the team added defensive talent at the trade deadline. However, both could play bigger roles this year, or within two years.

Another interesting decision the team will have to make is Gourde, who posted a breakout season in his first full season. The 26-year-old spent many years working on his game in the AHL before finally catching on with the Syracuse Crunch in 2014. From there he worked his way up before catching the team’s eye in training camp to win a spot. The result was a 25-goal, 64-point performance and now he has to prove he can duplicate that performance this season to get a big boost in his pay. For $1MM, Gourde may be the best bargain on the team, but he could get pricey quickly.Read more

Two Years Remaining

With the increase in salary being handed out to top goaltenders, the Lightning aren’t looking forward to Vasilevksiy’s contract negotations. Considered by many to be the top goaltender in the NHL at only 23 years old, Vasilevskiy will likely break the bank when the team signs him to a long-term deal. Montreal’s Carey Price ($10.5MM) and the eventual contract that Columbus’ Sergei Bobrovsky gets next year will likely just be the starting point for a goaltender who posted a .920 save percentage in 65 games last season.

The team should be able to salvage part of that raise from the expiring contract of Callahan (assuming they don’t trade or buy him out before then). Callahan, will be eventually missed as he’s the heart and soul of the team, but injuries have negated his presence for much of the last two years. Once his $5.8MM contract expires, the team can apply that towards a new contract for Vasilevskiy (plus quite a bit more). Callahan, 33, provides a physical presence, but he only played 67 games and he had an injured shoulder for quite a bit of that time after missing most of the 2016-17 game.

The team has locked up more players than most teams as they feel their core is ready to win for the next 10 years. The team started much of those signings back in 2016 when they were able to convince Stamkos to sign an eight-year, $68MM deal. Stamkos, who then got hurt in his first season and only played 17 games, bounced back with a solid season last year, posting 27 goals and 86 points. The 28-year-old posted impressive point totals, but saw his goal output drop after tallying 36 goals in 2015-16 and 43 in 2014-15 (not to mention the 60 in 2011-12). However, with Kucherov on his wing, there may not be a requirement to score as much.

Kucherov signed his eight-year, $76MM extension this offseason, as the team wanted to lock up their star winger, who many think is one of the top five players in the league. The 25-year-old posted a career-high in points, breaking 100 points this year. He also added 39 goals and now has scored 138 goals in the past four seasons.

Once the team locked up Stamkos, they immediately followed that up with an extension for Hedman, who proved he was worthy of the eight-year, $63MM deal when he won the Norris Trophy last season with a 17-goal, 63-point performance. The addition of McDonagh at the trade deadline only made Hedman’s job easier as McDonagh was able to share some of those tough minutes and help prevent Hedman from playing too many minutes in each game. The team then followed up on that by signing McDonagh to a seven-year, $47.3MM extension that will keep the veteran with the team until he’s 37 years old.

The team also locked up Palat and Johnson, two key wingers, to long-term extensions as well. The 27-year-old Palat has four years left on a five-year, $26.5MM deal. He was hampered by injuries last season, but still produced 11 goals and 35 points, but has the abilities to be a respectable 20-goals scorer year after year. The 28-year-old Johnson has six years remaining on his seven-year, $35MM contract and provided 21 goals and 50 points, providing solid top-six depth. The addition of Miller, who signed a five-year, $26.25MM deal this offseason, walked in and was an immediate fit on the team’s top line next to Stamkos and Kucherov. He combined for a career-high in goals and points as he gives the line much-needed size and style around the net.

The only player who seems to not be an impact player would be Killorn. the 28-year-old power forward, who the team handed a seven-year, $31.2MM contract back in 2016. With five years remaining at $4.45MM, Killorn still provides offense, but in a bottom-six role. He scored 15 goals and had a career-high 47 points, but $4.45MM is a lot of money for a player in that role.

Buyouts

D Matthew Carle ($1.83MM through 2019-20)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

Looking Ahead

The team has done an impressive job in building a franchise winner. They need only one thing — a Stanley Cup title — but the team has the pieces, most of which are just entering their prime, to accomplish just that. The franchise that general Steve Yzerman has things they have to deal with, but it seems to be in good hands. The team got a good deal out of Kucherov, who signed for slightly below-market value (thanks in part to Florida’s lack of state tax) and while they still have a few contracts they’ll have to deal with in the near future (Point, Sergachev, Gourde and Vasilevskiy), the team is set up perfectly to compete with the best teams in the leagues for the foreseeable future. They might even have the ability to take on another major contract like an Erik Karlsson if they wanted.

After suffering a disappointing Game 1 loss at home to the Boston Bruins, the Tampa Bay Lightning are pushing the pace at practice today and is compared to a training camp style of practice, according to The Athletic’s Joe Smith. The Lightning struggled and didn’t look prepared for their first-round matchup, falling 6-2, likely forcing coach Jon Cooper to wake them up in practice today.

While the team hopes to rebound in Game 2 and even the series, the team is also without Brayden Point and Ondrej Palat, who are both absent from the practice and are considered day-to-day for Monday. Point took a hard check from Boston’s Brad Marchand in the first period, while there is no word on Palat. Point said he will be ready to go Monday, according to NHL.com’s Dan Rosen. Both missed practice because of “body maintenance.” One positive note, the Lightning have winger Adam Erneback, who is practicing in a regular jersey, not a non-contact one. He could return Monday. He last played on Mar. 26 and has been out with a lower-body injury.

The Nashville Predators could get Austin Watson back from injury for Sunday’s game. The winger left Friday’s game in the first period with an undisclosed injury, but practiced Saturday alongside linesmates Colton Sissons and Nick Bonino, according to the Tennessean’s Adam Vingan. That suggests he will be available for Game 2. His return is key as Watson, who scored 14 goals during the regular season, has come up big in the playoffs, putting up seven points in seven games so far, including four goals.

While the Winnipeg Jets are almost fully healthy, veteran winger Mathieu Perreault remains in a non-contact jersey and looks to be out for at least another game, according to Winnipeg Sun’s Ken Wiebe. Perrault has been out with an upper-body injury and has played in just one game so far in the playoffs.

“Whatever gets said, the belief is the Ottawa Senators want to try to make this happen and Erik Karlsson wants it to happen, and they have been grinding away in the last two or three days to see if they can,” Friedman said. “Obviously Tampa Bay is a leading contender, I think they’ve thrown several different proposals at each other.”

While negotiations haven’t reached their final stages, other teams have also shown interest in Karlsson, including the Nashville Predators, San Jose Sharks and the Vegas Golden Knights.

The idea that Karlsson could end up in Tampa Bay is not unrealistic considering he is close friends with fellow Swede Victor Hedman. The two playing on the Lightning’s blueline could be the ultimate piece for a team that want to win a Stanley Cup this year. However, what would be the cost? While Tampa Bay has quite a lot of solid prospects they could deal, Ottawa would almost definitely be looking for a major piece from the team’s active roster with names such as Brayden Point, Yanni Gourde and Vladislav Namestnikov, rumored to be names that Ottawa would want back.

“I’m sure the names Brayden Point and Yanni Gourde have come up, but at the very least it might even cost them [Vladislav] Namestnikov and we know how important he is to the first line in Tampa Bay,” said Kypreos on the same segment of Hockey Night in Canada. “But Ottawa wants a major piece back.”

Friedman added in the segment that he believes if Ottawa is willing to accept Namestnikov as the centerpiece of the deal, “that’s something that Tampa would do.” However, the real question is what else would Ottawa want? The team is unlikely to part with 19-year-old Mikhail Sergachev, who seems to have turned the corner after recent struggles.

You also have to factor in the injury to Ondrej Palat, who is out for another two or three weeks with what many believe is a high ankle sprain. Does the team have enough depth to survive without a Namestnikov, who is a major influence on the team’s first line. The 25-year-old is having a breakout season with 20 goals and 24 assists in 62 games this year. He is only making $1.94MM this year, but will be a restricted free agent next year, which could make him harder to sign for the future.

The Tampa Bay Lightning have been dealt a huge blow to their forward group, announcing today that Ondrej Palat would be out for six to eight weeks with a lower-body injury. Palat suffered the injury at the hands of the Minnesota Wild on Saturday, likely when Jared Spurgeon speared him in front of the net.

One of Tampa Bay’s most consistent two-way players, Palat has 30 points on the season and has received Selke votes three times in his career as one of the league’s best defensive forwards. His loss will be felt at both ends of the rink for the Lightning, whose lead in the Atlantic Division is slipping after losing three games in a row.

Eight weeks would put Palat’s return around March 19th, meaning the team will have to navigate the trade deadline without him. Whether that means the Lightning will go out and add to their forward group is unclear, but with Victor Hedman also out at the moment their overall skill level has taken a huge hit.