Abstract:

The purpose of this research is to model developments in productivity and relative prices in New Zealand and across countries. The first chapter produces aggregate and industry estimates of Total Factor Productivity (TFP) for New Zealand based on Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) production functions. The CES approach simultaneously explains changes in labour share and output over time, and provides estimates of the contribution of capital and labour to productivity in New Zealand. The results suggest that negative capital-augmenting technical change in several industries has weighed on productivity in New Zealand. The second chapter focuses on high frequency dynamics of exchange rates. Tests for explosiveness in highly traded exchange rates at a daily frequency are performed using a methodology that accounts for the possibility of non-stationary volatility. Bouts of explosiveness in exchange rates are uncommon at a daily frequency and there is high concordance with explosiveness in the effective value of the US dollar, suggesting that there are relatively few instances where explosiveness in individual cross-rates reflect country-specific factors. The final chapter focuses on long term developments in sectoral productivity and prices across countries. The chapter tests the validity of an augmented Balassa- Samuelson hypothesis using a panel of real exchange rate levels across 17 OECD countries based on a unique panel of sectoral TFP and price level data. The results show that real exchange rate dynamics can be explained by relative productivity levels both across countries and over time. Other relative fundamentals such as structural labour market differences also matter for real exchange rates.