Estudios de Futuro al 2050

Energía y Transporte

“FREIGHTVISION – Freight Transport 2050 Foresight” was a project funded by the European Commission Directorate General MOVE to design a long term vision for European freight transport in 2050 and to identify actions and research to progress appropriate freight transport measures in Europe.

This website covers work undertaken as part of two projects funded by the European Commission: DG Climate Action, which aimed to, among other things, stimulate a debate about the actions that need to be taken in the medium- to long-term (particularly between 2020 and 2050) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the transport sector in the EU.

Our transportation system is critical to the Nation’s economy and our quality of life. The United States has long enjoyed one of the best and most efficient transportation systems in the world, but it is now facing significant challenges.

Transport is one of the major global consumers of energy and therefore has an important role in meeting the primary objective of the World Energy Council, sustainable energy for all. Transport is the only energy sector in which the
energy itself is mobile during consumption, rather than being delivered for use at a fixed location. For this reason, energy for transport is dominated by petroleum, which is widely available, relatively inexpensive and from which easily transportable liquid fuels of high energy density such as gasoline and diesel are made.

People’s well-being, industrial competitiveness and the overall functioning of society are dependent on safe, secure, sustainable and affordable energy. The energy infrastructure which will power citizens’ homes, industry and services in 2050, as well as the buildings which people will use, are being designed and built now. The pattern of energy production and use in 2050 is already being set.

As the age of cheap energy resources comes to its end, strong political commitment is needed to preserve European competitiveness and to combat climate change. The WETO-H2 report (World Energy Technology Outlook-2050) places the European energy system in a global context. Europe represents today 10% of the world population, 25% of the world GDP and 20% of world energy consumption. Considering the demographic changes and the techno-economic progress made by developing countries, by 2050 these figures will be less than 7%, 15% and 12% respectively.

This study assesses the potential for China to significantly reduce its carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to 2050, with a focus on CO2 from energy and industrial emissions. The study uses modelling by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and Imperial College London, to undertake a detailed analysis of the key technologies that could be deployed in China as part of a low carbon transition. The study also assesses the challenges and opportunities, in terms of a range of factors including R&D requirements, costs and use of resources, facing China and the international community in achieving such a transition.

Europe’s demand for energy is increasing in an environment of high and unstable energy prices. Greenhouse gas emissions are rising and the energy sector is one of the main emitters of greenhouse gases. Natural reserves of fossil fuels such as oil and gas are concentrated in just a few supplier countries around the world. Climate change along with an increasing dependency on energy imports are only a few of the risks the European economy is facing today. The EU now needs the courage to lead the way out of this climate and energy dilemma with a clear commitment to a 100% renewable energy future by 2050.

ETP2010 will build on the success of earlier editions, by providing decision makers with more detailed practical information and tools that can help kick-start the transition to a more secure, sustainable and affordable energy future. The new publication will present:

Updated scenarios with greater regional detail providing insights on which new technologies will be most important in the different regions of the world

Sectoral deep dives highlighting the key technological challenges and opportunities in each of the main energy-using sectors and the new policies that will be needed to realise change

Roadmaps and transition pathways identifying the technical and policy barriers to accelerated deployment of the most important clean technologies and how these can be overcome

Agua y Ciudades

To be able to adequately feed and support the world’s growing population, our global economy needs to continue to grow. Water is critical to this growth. But it can also become the major limiting factor to growth. For instance, businesses in water-scarce areas are already at risk, and so investors are increasingly taking water supply into consideration during their decision-making processes.

Cities are responsible for some 70% of global carbon emissions and 75% of global energy consumption, and by 2050 70% of the world’s population will live in cities. Facing the daunting prospects of climate change and growing resource constraints, the challenge for urban policymakers is to develop the knowledge and capacity to understand more sustainable ways of generating and using energy and resources and to incorporate them into the existing built environment, and the lives of the people who live in it.

The Design 2050 Challenge is a unique opportunity for us to, stop…and challenge the paradigm of reactionary responses to design…and try to imagine y[our] world in 2050, a place where we live “Life @ 1 Planet.”

Although getting older is considered desirable, being old is seen as a problem. Over the last centuries average human life expectancy has risen dramatically. An increasing number of people are reaching increasingly higher ages. What would have been seen as a blessing a century ago is today considered as a curse by some people: the ageing society. Labour market shortages, overpopulation, youth unemployment, increasing retirement age, financial problems in pensions, health insurance
and social security systems, rising medical costs, generational conflicts, immigration, shortage in nursing personnel, “Planet Alzheimer’s” and economic difficulties and the development of controversial developments in science and technology are aspects that are commonly attributed to the ageing society.

Otros

Confronted with highly complex and dynamic landscapes, states of crises and short-term reactions of governments and decisions-makers of all kinds, most readers will probably think that looking forward 30 or 40 years resembles writing science fiction. And yes, indeed, the time horizon (2030-2050) of this study and its all-encompassing scope (Europe and the world) call for a balanced combination of daring ambition and down-to-earth realism.