By Tiernan Ray

Apple (AAPL) shares have been under pressure today following reports from Japan’s NikkeiNews Service and others saying that manufacturing partner Foxconn was “freezing expansion plans” at the main plant in China making Apple’s iPhone 5, citing remarks from Foxconn representatives.

However, UBS’s Steve Milunovich, who follows Apple and rates it a Buy, this afternoon refutes the notion, writing that the freeze actually pertains to Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), he thinks.

Noting that a Foxconn spokesperson has already clarified “the decision was unrelated to iPhone 5 production,” Milunovich writes that “Apple already gave guidance for a roughly 23% sequential revenue decline in the March quarter, likely including a sharp reduction in iPhone shipments.”

He continues, “In December we and others picked up on an Apple production decline at Asian suppliers, but our sources indicate there has not been a change since.”

Rather,

After conferring with our Asia tech colleagues, we believe the weakness could be attributable to HP. We think HP represents 8-10% of Foxconn’s revenue. We believe that Foxconn makes mostly desktop PCs for HP along with some printers and servers. We are forecasting a 12% YoY PC revenue decline for HP in the quarter to be announced tomorrow. Yesterday Dell indicated that PC demand and pricing remain difficult. In addition, we are concerned about printer demand and that the declines in printer hardware shipments will begin to affect supplies revenue over the next few quarters.

HP will report fiscal Q1 results tomorrow afternoon.

Apple sharesare down $8.61, or 2%, at $451.38, while HP shares are off 7 cents, or 0.4%, at $16.82.

Update: HP representative Michael Thacker was in touch this afternoon with some comments from the company that would tend to refute, albeit indirectly, Milunovich’s claim. According to Thacker, “HP does not manufacture personal computers at the Foxconn Shenzhen site,” and “HP has a very diversified supplier strategy unlike other companies who are more dependent on a single vendor.”

About Tech Trader Daily

Tech Trader Daily is a blog on technology investing written by Barron’s veteran Tiernan Ray. The blog provides news, analysis and original reporting on events important to investors in software, hardware, the Internet, telecommunications and related fields. Comments and tips can be sent to: techtraderdaily@barrons.com.