Tackling the topic, Massachusetts Institute of Technology President Rafael Reif last year convened a task force on the "Work of the Future" to address what might be the most critical question of the digital economy: As emerging technologies raise aggregate economic output and the wealth of nations, will they also enable people to attain greater economic security and improved health and longevity?

The task force recently released an interim report concluding that the likelihood that AI and automation will wipe out major workforce sectors in the near future is exaggerated. However, we’ve already seen important reasons for concern, especially the rising polarization of employment and wage distribution over the past few decades, which has disproportionately benefited high-skilled professionals while reducing opportunities for mid- and low-skilled workers.

“[A] critical challenge is not necessarily a lack of jobs, but the low quality of many jobs and the resulting lack of viable careers for many people, particularly workers without college degrees,” the report states. “With this in mind, the work of the future can be shaped beneficially by new policies, renewed support for labor, and reformed institutions, not just new technologies.”

Let me briefly discuss some of the report’s key findings and recommendations.

The paradox of the present.

Of the 36 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development member countries, two-thirds have record employment. In the U.S., the jobless rate remains at a near-historic low of 3.7%, while wages have been increasing. Yet many throughout the industrialized world feel underpaid, exploited and pessimistic about a future where intelligent machines threaten to make them unemployable.

While these fears are greatly exaggerated, they’re neither ill-informed nor misguided. Recent history has shown that there’s ample reason to be concerned about the impact of technological advances on large segments of the workforce. Whether the impact will turn out to be positive or negative depends on many factors.

For example, demographic trends point toward rising labor scarcity in the U.S. and most other industrialized countries due to declining fertility, an aging population and restrictive immigration policies. The Bureau of Labor Statistics projects that the share of workers 55 and over will rise from 16.8% to 24.8% between 2006 and 2026, while the share of prime-age workers (25-54) will fall by 5%.

“These demographic shifts will impose steep burdens on national budgets as the ratio of retirees to workers rises and as the growth rate of working-age taxpayers slows,” the report says. But the shifts also offer opportunity. “Countries that make well-targeted, forward-looking investments in education and skills training should be able to deliver middle-skill jobs with favorable earnings and employment security to the vast majority of their workers.”

Is this time different?

How are job markets likely to evolve in our 21st-century digital economy? The digital era differs from prior waves of automation in a few important respects, said the MIT task force. Labor market polarization has spurred growth of high-skill, high-wage and low-skill, low-wage jobs at the expense of mid-skill, mid-wage jobs. Rising inequality has concentrated earning growth among the most educated, highest-skilled workers. Low productivity technologies have displaced many categories of work previously done by less educated workers.

“Despite the sobering record of the last 40 years, our research argues against fatalism and in favor of tempered optimism,” the MIT task force writes. “Better work and broadly shared prosperity are not assured, but both are feasible, and technological advances make them more, and not less attainable.”

Policy Proposals for the future

Foremost among the task force'srecommendations is the need to provide workers with the skills required to meet these technology and workforce challenges, especially workers without a four-year college degree who’ve disproportionately borne the brunt of automation.

Postsecondary education and training venues are likely to be most relevant and accessible to these workers. However, the report adds that education and training won’t be enough.

The task force recommends four broad areas where concerted public and private action are essential to shaping the future of work:

Reinvigorate America’s leadership position in technology and innovation

Irving Wladawsky-Berger worked at IBM from 1970 to 2007, and has been a strategic adviser to Citigroup, HBO and Mastercard and a visiting professor at Imperial College. He's been affiliated with MIT since 2005, and is a regular contributor to CIO Journal.