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Saturday, October 6, 2018

Here Comes the 30-Year Trade War

What is at stake her is that China needs to completely reform it internal economic and political systems wghich they have put off for a long time allowing only small incremental shifts.

Most of what we see now will be settled rather quickly. Confronting China over its dirty tricks can be charged out by charging out the costs and then negotiating a resolution. This really needs to be done.

While this is been done, The USA can simply declare China as a non conforming member and block USA investment, encouraging transition to India and elsewhere. This will force corporations to actually move elsewhere..

Here Comes the 30-Year Trade War

Trade tensions between the US and China
could drag on for decades but China's focus on its Belt and Road
Initiative could provide relief

Alibaba’s
Jack Ma has warned that the ongoing US-China trade war could last at
least 20 years. As we’ll see, it’s actually more like 30 – up to 2049,
the 100th anniversary of the foundation of the People’s Republic of China (PRC).

Steve Bannon always boasted that President Trump was bound to conduct
a “sophisticated form of economic warfare” to confront China.

The logic underpinning the warfare is that if you squeeze the Chinese
economy hard enough Beijing will submit and “play by the rules.”

Force companies to source elsewhere in the Global South all the components necessary for manufacturing their products.

Force multinational corporations to stop doing business in China.

The overarching concept is that unending confrontation with China is bound to scare companies/investors away.

There’s no evidence South Korean or German conglomerates, for
instance, would withdraw from the vast Chinese market and/or production
facilities.

And even if the Flight Away from China actually happened, arguably
the American economy would suffer as much, if not more, than China’s.

The latest US tariff volley may lower China’s GDP by only 0.9
percentage points, according to Bloomberg Economics. But China may still
grow a healthy 6.3% in 2019.

This is a decent overview, with numbers, of what the trade war might cost China.

What’s certain is that Beijing, as confirmed by a rash of editorials in Chinese state media, will not just play defense.

Beijing sees the trade war as “protracted.” A Commercial Cold War 2.0
atmosphere is now in effect but China is fighting the ideological war
on two fronts. At home, Beijing is using strong language to define its
position against the US but taking a significantly softer approach in
the international arena.

It’s extremely helpful to understand how the current situation has arisen by examining the work of Wang Hui, a professor of Chinese language and literature at Tsinghua University, top essayist and the star player of China’s New Left.

Hui is the author of the significant The Rise of Modern Chinese Thought, published in 2005 and still without an English translation.

Some of Hui’s key conclusions still apply 13 years later, as he
explains how Chinese society has not yet adapted to its newfound status
in international relations; how it has not solved the “accumulated
contradictions” during the breathtakingly fast process of marketization;
and how it still has not mastered the inherent risks in the
globalization drive.

Hui’s analysis is echoed in many a Chinese editorial including
delicious throwback lines such as the “sharpening of internal
contradictions” in international relations. After all “socialism with
Chinese characteristics,” as codified by Deng Xiaoping and renewed by Xi
Jinping, excels in exploiting and bypassing “internal contradictions.”

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18 years old, having cleaned out my HS library, I concluded the only ambition worth having was becoming a great genius. An inner voice cheered. Yet it is my path I have shared much to the Human Gesalt. Mar 2017 - 4.56 Mil Pg Views, March 2013 - Posted my paper introducing CLOUD COSMOLOGY & NEUTRAL NEUTRINO described as the SPACE TIME PENDULUM. Sep 2010 -My essay titled A NEW METRIC WITH APPLICATIONS TO PHYSICS AND SOLVING CERTAIN HIGHER ORDERED DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS has been published in Physics Essays(AIP) June 2010 quarterly. 40 years ago I took an honors degree in applied mathematics from the University of Waterloo. My interest was Relativity and my last year there saw me complete a 900 level course under Hanno Rund on his work in Relativity. I continued researching new ideas and knowledge since that time and I have prepared a book for publication titled Paradigms Shift. I maintain my blog as a day book and research tool to retain data, record impressions, interpretations and to introduce new insights to readers.