[Quote No.38543] Need Area: Money > Invest "At turning points [between an economy growing and a recession], a few months’ lag in [government monetary and fiscal] policy action can be immensely costly. If it spells the difference between a recession and a soft landing, a couple of months’ delay can end up costing a couple of million jobs and couple of hundred extra basis points in rate cuts – and still not have the same effect. What a stitch in time can accomplish early in a down cycle cannot be achieved, even with far more aggressive action, a few months down the road. [As they say, 'A stich in time can save nine!'] At best, forceful but delayed action can mitigate the severity of a recession." - Economic Cycles Research Institute (ECRI)Highly respected business and economic cycles forecasting company. Quoted Friday, January 25, 2008.Author's Info on Wikipedia - Author on ebay - Author on Amazon - More Quotes by this AuthorStart Searching Amazon for GiftsSend as Free eCard with optional Google Image

[Quote No.38548] Need Area: Money > Invest "'Position Sizing' (what some call money management) is that portion of your trading system that tells you 'how many' or 'how much.' How many units of your investment should you put on at a given time? How much risk should you be willing to take? [This has been shown to both increase long-term profits while reducing drawdowns and the risk of ruin. At least in speculating, a probability advantage - a positive expectancy 'edge' and bet size are key determinants of survival and success. Remember...size DOES matter in the markets.] " - Van K. TharpShare trading trainer. He has written many books, including 'Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom' and 'Van Tharp's Definitive Guide To Position Sizing - How to Evaluate Your System and Use Position Sizing to Meet Your Objectives'.
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[Quote No.38580] Need Area: Money > Invest "One of the methods I use in analyzing markets is the contrary opinion approach. Whenever a strong consensus emerges on a market trend, I become very curious about taking an opposite stance.
What is the logic of this seemingly paradoxical style? In many markets, especially those for which futures are traded, the number of long and short positions is equal. For every long there is a short, and if there are 100,000 contracts on the long side, there must be 100,000 contracts on the short side. Now, if the consensus in that market becomes 75% bullish, it means that there are 3 bulls for every bear. Since the total size of their positions is equal, this means that an average bear holds a position about three times as large as average bull. This is a sign that the big money is on the bearish side. The big money did not become big by being stupid. The big money tends to be smart money, which is why at sentiment extremes I tend to side with the minority and against the majority.
How does one detect such extreme areas of sentiment? There is no one sure-fire method – this is not like looking at a thermometer – but there are several ways to detect crowd extremes. One website I like to use is sentimentrader.com, which mostly focuses on the stock market but often comments on futures as well. Another is oanda.com, which shows you he actual positions their traders have in currencies and gold. For example, earlier this month I saw that the bullish consensus in Japanese Yen had reached 90%. It meant that the average bear had nine times more money than an average bull. I looked at the charts, the technicals for the yen looked toppy, and I shorted that top." - Dr. Alexander ElderWell-known trader and educator.Author's Info on Wikipedia - Author on ebay - Author on Amazon - More Quotes by this AuthorStart Searching Amazon for GiftsSend as Free eCard with optional Google Image

[Quote No.38581] Need Area: Money > Invest "In trying to end a recession, following a sharemarket 'bust' of more than a 20 percent fall, besides fiscal policy - government spending including grants and subsidies for stimulus, tax policy - what things and rates government taxes including depreciation rates for business investment, etc. and when they expire, monetary policy - interest rates (and how that along with perhaps some central bank intervention to support through buying or weaken by selling effects currency exchange rates and therefore import and export companies as well as imported inflation or deflation), liquidity injections, bank reserve requirements and collateral rules - are used to encourage domestic private spending especially real estate and government and business capital investment (capex-capital expenditure, including maintenance as well as investment, or opex-operational expenditure). The latter business investing is incentivised as the recessionary low prices for materials and labour not only offers good prospects for an enticing return on capital as they are buying low, with the likelihood of selling higher later for a healthy capital gain for them, but the government's stimulatory higher depreciation rates mean the companies earnings for the next year will often be very good as their taxes for each dollar of profit will fall due to the higher depreciation rates, stabilising or even improving margins, if not sales and other revenues yet. Share investors see this, along with the greater labour productivity, and anticipating better profits and better year on year comparisons, if not improving at least not falling or falling as quickly, buy back into the share market while short sellers cover their shorts so the market rises, usually at least 20 percent, before the economy's recession is over. In time and with hopefully greater profits from better productivity and now greater productive capacity, inventories run down during the recession are rebuilt for the expected recovering sales demand, employment increases, write downs are reduced and the recession ends. Slowly government's yearly fiscal deficits and Debt to Gross Domestic Product improve as transfer payments for things like unemployment insurance and trade deficits fall and tax receipts rise with GDP and inflation. This spurs the currency exchange rates to rise and continue rising as interest rates rise to control inflation, unemployment, deficits and GDP by limiting eligible demand and influencing export and import competing industries. Eventually inflation (or an economic shock, including bond yields rising quickly or too high due to rising risks including excessive personal or government debt levels, natural disasters, etc.) usually seen first by share investors who then sell their shares driving the share market down thereby reducing people's net wealth, their feelings of prosperity, job security and confidence to spend, requires the government to slow the economy and the opposite of these stimulatory policies and methods are used. If done skillfully and with luck a slowdown is achieved without an economy-wide recession in GDP and vast increases in unemployment and bankruptcies. This is called a 'soft landing'. Many times however a small recession results. But this is considered less damaging over the long-term than doing nothing and the country eventually having an even more severe recession, perhaps even a depression, due to imbalances, including high-risk loans on questionable valuations, where the sharemarket or some other asset class 'overheats' sometimes called a 'crack-up boom', in the economy becoming severe, and in private, business and government, speculative and unsustainable practices, rather than productive and durable ones, becoming too widespread. Many of the above things are monitored and reported by economists and government bodies. Economists group them into leading economic indicators that change before the economy does, coincident indicators and lagging indicators." - Seymour@imagi-natives.comAuthor's Info on Wikipedia - Author on ebay - Author on Amazon - More Quotes by this AuthorStart Searching Amazon for GiftsSend as Free eCard with optional Google Image

[Quote No.38582] Need Area: Money > Invest "[Be careful of investing in banks that have loaned too much to poor risks, especially in recessions, when asset values will fall anyway, reducing the value of bank collateral even to the point of being worth less than the loan. Remember the quality of the loan book in any bank you invest in is your responsibility, because as a part owner you will wear any loss.] If you owe the bank $100 that's your problem. If you owe the bank $100 million, that's the bank's problem." - John Paul GettyFounder of the Getty Oil Company, and in 1957 named the richest living American by Fortune Magazine.
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[Quote No.38587] Need Area: Money > Invest "[In the brginning of increasing the money supply to stop deflation] Everyone loves an early inflation. The effects at the beginning of inflation are all good. There is steepened money expansion, rising government spending, increased government budget deficits, booming stock markets, and spectacular prosperity, all in the midst of temporary stable prices. Everyone benefits, and no one pays...
the latter effects [of inflating the money supply] patiently wait. In the terminal inflation, there is faltering prosperity, tightness of money, falling stock prices, rising taxes, still larger government deficits, and still soaring money expansion, now accompanied by soaring prices and the ineffectiveness of all traditional remedies. Everyone pays and no one benefits. " - Jens O. ParssonQuote from his book, 'Dying of Money'.Author's Info on Wikipedia - Author on ebay - Author on Amazon - More Quotes by this AuthorStart Searching Amazon for GiftsSend as Free eCard with optional Google Image

[Quote No.38699] Need Area: Money > Invest "A nation's exchange rate is the single most important price in its economy; it will influence the entire range of individual prices, imports and exports, and even the level of economic activity. [A floating exchange rate can act as an economic stabiliser for the domestic economy. For example if an economy has high external debts and is not very competitive due to high domestic wage rates a floating exchange rate would fall rather than the brunt of the adjustment have to fall on the wages of the citizens. This is the advantage. The disadvantage would be imported goods would become more expensive increasing inflation if domestic substitutes could not be found. In a period of fixed exchange rates or gold standard a managed devaluation would achieve the same result of increasing international export competitiveness. Giving up a floating exchange rate for a currency union removes this important economic stabilization mechanism and returns the burden of competitive adjustment back to the wages of the citizens. This potential problem was seen with the problems with Greece in the European Currency Union especially in 2010.] " - Paul Volcker and Toyoo GyohtenTwo respected economists. Quote from 'Changing Fortunes: The World's Money and the Threat to American Leadership.'Author's Info on Wikipedia - Author on ebay - Author on Amazon - More Quotes by this AuthorStart Searching Amazon for GiftsSend as Free eCard with optional Google Image

[Quote No.38701] Need Area: Money > Invest "Like company bonds, sovereign bonds can be good investments. But like any investment the return of your money is more important than the return on your money. Therefore this risk side of the risk reward ratio needs to be weighed carefully, in particular debt and income, just like when a bank considers lending to a person or a business. So when considering the very important net Debt to GDP of countries it is important to be aware of whether the debt is dangerously high - for example above 90 percent of GDP (See 'This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly' by Reinhart and Rogoff)
- and then whether it is mainly private or government and whether the debt is internally or externally owed. If debt is held by non-residents it is worse because it means that the governments do not receive tax revenue on the interest paid, nor do the interest payment itself remain in the country. Also external debt denominated in another currency, ie dollars, produces an 'inverted balance sheet' where the value of liabilities is positively correlated with the value of assets, so that the debt burden and servicing costs decline in good times and rise in bad times, in relation to the currency exchange rate differential. All of these things effect the interest rates and sovereign bond yields of the country as well as the likelihood of sovereign default. Should the Debt to GDP be above 90% and the interest rates higher than sustainable GDP growth levels for the country the Debt to GDP level should be expected to grow each year, especially the portion of external debt denominated in another currency, therefore necessitating a debt default and restructure to a more sustainable level. Bonds which face this likelihood, if bought at all, need to be bought well below their face value and well below the expected devalation 'haircut', even if Credit Default Swaps are bought as it is not unknown for legislation around these to be circunvented by desperate governments, banks and the international community to avoid a deflationary credit crisis (refer Greece 2010)." - Seymour@imagi-natives.comAuthor's Info on Wikipedia - Author on ebay - Author on Amazon - More Quotes by this AuthorStart Searching Amazon for GiftsSend as Free eCard with optional Google Image

[Quote No.38702] Need Area: Money > Invest "I've long said that capitalism without bankruptcy is like Christianity without Hell. [It creates a 'moral hazard' that then creates a speculative frenzy that always ends badly for the last entrants if there is the prospect of reward without the sobering influence of risk. It is not capitalism if this is encouraged by government, namely where profits are privatised and losses socialised, but rather 'crony capitalism' sometimes called corporatism. It is very econmically damaging and demoralising in the long-run to all but the government's crony supporters.] " - Frank BormanChairman of Eastern AirlinesAuthor's Info on Wikipedia - Author on ebay - Author on Amazon - More Quotes by this AuthorStart Searching Amazon for GiftsSend as Free eCard with optional Google Image

[Quote No.38705] Need Area: Money > Invest "If you want to know where the economy is heading, watch the price of oil. Oil is used to power over 90% of our transportation fleet from land, sea, to air. It is responsible for 95% of the production of all goods found in stores. It is also directly linked to 95% of our food products, from the fertilizer used in the planting cycle to the diesel used in tractors to the trucks that transport the food to processing plants and grocery stores. Look behind nearly any consumer item, building material, or medical device and you will find it linked to oil in some way. Plain and simple, we live in a petroleum-based society. It is the common thread behind all industrial/modern economies. Without oil our present way of life would cease to exist. For this reason, it is not only the most highly sought-after resource by nations worldwide, but also critical in driving the natural rhythms of recession and recovery. We define this as the 'Petro Business Cycle'.
There are eight phases...
1.Fiscal & monetary stimulus is applied to the economy.
2.Economic growth accelerates as a result of stimulus.
3.Demand for energy picks up as global GDP growth picks up.
4.Energy prices rise along with energy demand as supply struggles to keep pace.
5.Rising energy prices cause the prices paid component to rise leading to a rise in both the PPI [Producer Price Index] and CPI [Consumer Price Index].
6.Rising inflation feeds through to the economy [reducing the disposable income that consumers and businesses have to spend] — LEIs [Leading Economic Indicators] begin to peak and roll over.
7.Falling LEIs lead to slower economic growth and falling equity markets [as investors anticipate reduced earnings and growth as profit margins fall with decreasing sales and increasing prices].
8.A weakening economy and faltering equity markets force another policy response and the cycle repeats itself.
" - James J PuplavaCertified Financial Planner, President and Chief Investment Strategist at PFS Group. Quote from 'Financial Sense', 15th February, 2012. [http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/james-j-puplava/petro-business-cycle ]Author's Info on Wikipedia - Author on ebay - Author on Amazon - More Quotes by this AuthorStart Searching Amazon for GiftsSend as Free eCard with optional Google Image

[Quote No.38706] Need Area: Money > Invest "[When a country tries to improve its exports and reduce its imports to improve its deficit or surplus trade balance by weakening its currency by keeping interest rates lower than inflation would demand or engaging in quantitative easing, a form of 'money printing' that reduces the value of each unit, then other countries that lose market share can become upset and instigate strategies that negate the advantage and there develops a race to the bottom as global free trade decreases. The following article examines this:] Brazil has declared a fresh 'currency war' on the US and Europe, extending a tax on foreign borrowings and threatening further capital controls in an effort to protect the country’s struggling manufacturers.
Guido Mantega, the finance minister who was the first to use the controversial term in 2010, said the government would not 'sit by passively' as developed nations continue to pursue expansionary monetary policies at the expense of Brazil.
'When the real appreciates, it reduces our competitiveness. Exports are more expensive, imports are cheaper and it creates unfair competition for businesses in Brazil,' he said on Thursday after announcing changes to the so-called IOF tax.
In a presidential decree, the government extended the existing 6 per cent financial transactions tax on overseas loans maturing in up to three years. Previously, the levy was applied only to loans with maturities of under two years.
President Dilma Rousseff later weighed in on the debate, vowing to defend Brazilian industry and stop developed countries’ policies from causing the 'cannibalisation' of emerging markets.
The move comes as Brazil’s central bank also steps up direct intervention in the market, selling dollars and offering derivatives called reverse currency swaps to curb the real’s near 9 per cent surge against the US dollar this year." - The Financial TimesMarch 3rd, 2012. [http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com.au/2012/03/brazil-declares-new-currency-war-on-us.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis+(Mish's+Global+Economic+Trend+Analysis) ]Author's Info on Wikipedia - Author on ebay - Author on Amazon - More Quotes by this AuthorStart Searching Amazon for GiftsSend as Free eCard with optional Google Image

[Quote No.55377] Need Area: Money > Invest "Margin debt [credit to leverage - increase percent profit from the amount invested] is pro-cyclical because when markets are going up people’s capacity to buy also increases without changing the relative level of margin that they’re using. It can also create a cushion against small bump if investors hold a bit of this new capacity in reserve. Either way, whether investors pile new paper wealth into more (also overpriced) stock or give themselves breathing room, margin debt supports a bull market. But when prices fall far investors are forced to sell when they can’t meet their margin calls – pushing prices lower and starting the cycle again." - Michael Ide[http://www.valuewalk.com/2015/07/pettis-china-crash/ ]
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[Quote No.38714] Need Area: Money > Invest "There used to be an old saying when the Dow was holding up while the rest of the market indexes seemed to be following each other in retreat, that at some point the generals [the large companies] look over their shoulders and see the troops [the small and medium companies which are more risk averse] are in retreat and that they are leading the charge alone, at which point they turn tail and join the retreat. " - Sy HardingEditor of the Street Smart Post from the Asset Management Research Corporation. Quoted 6th March, 2012. [http://www.streetsmartpost.com/2012/03/06/are-negative-divergences-finally-taking-a-toll/ ]Author's Info on Wikipedia - Author on ebay - Author on Amazon - More Quotes by this AuthorStart Searching Amazon for GiftsSend as Free eCard with optional Google Image

[Quote No.38732] Need Area: Money > Invest "...Top Economic Indicator - Warren Buffett's 'Desert Island' Indicator.
In a 2010 interview with CNBC, [one of the world's richest men and most successful investors] Warren Buffett was asked which single set of economic data he'd request access to if he were stranded on a desert island.
Buffett's response? Freight car loadings. These show the volume of raw materials and industrial supplies being moved by rail around the US every week.
Why is Buffett so keen on such an old-fashioned sounding indicator?
Because all the stuff that's being transported by America's railways will at some stage get used. It will either be processed into finished goods for sale, or stored as inventory. In the latter case it should be pressed into service at a later date.
As inventory levels drop, more raw materials are likely to be ordered by manufacturers to plug the gaps in the stock warehouse shelves. That will be reflected in future freight car loading figures.
In other words, freight car loadings are a nice and simple, useful and very accurate early warning guide to the future direction of the US economy. They are, if you like, the American land-based equivalent of the Baltic Dry shipping rate index...
And the other handy thing about freight car loadings is that you can easily find out what's going on. Up-to-date information is published every week on the Association of American Railroads (AAR) website. ... Importantly for investors, there's confirmation of the ...[railway] trend in America's stock market.
The Dow Jones Transportation Average (TRAN) consists of shares in firms that shift people or products around, like haulage firms, airlines, railways, shippers and delivery service providers.
The TRAN is widely seen as a harbinger [leading indicator] for the Dow. Again, history shows that if the TRAN takes a tumble, the rest of the stock market is likely to follow on behind." - David StevensonAssociate Editor, MoneyWeek (UK). [http://www.moneyweek.com/news-and-charts/economics/us/us-economic-indicators-freight-car-loadings-21000 ]Author's Info on Wikipedia - Author on ebay - Author on Amazon - More Quotes by this AuthorStart Searching Amazon for GiftsSend as Free eCard with optional Google Image

[Quote No.38733] Need Area: Money > Invest "The Baltic Dry Index... BDI is a key barometer of global freight activity. It’s published by London’s Baltic Exchange, the world’s leading market for buying and selling shipping contracts.
The BDI covers 26 major shipping routes. It measures the cost of transport space (shipping rates) on so-called ‘dry bulk carriers’. These carry cargoes of raw materials such as coal, grain, timber, steel and iron ore.
If the BDI rises, it indicates that shipping rates are rising, due to increased demand for transport space for raw materials. If more raw materials are being shipped, it suggests that factories are seeing higher demand for their finished products and so are planning to make more.
This makes the BDI a key leading economic indicator [LEI]. Rising shipping rates suggest that manufacturing activity is improving, even before it shows up in the official statistics.
On the flipside, a drop in the BDI could suggest that worldwide demand for shipping space – and therefore, for raw materials – is falling. That in turn indicates that the global economy must be about to slow down.
[While the Baltic Dry Index records the costs of sea transport for raw materials another index, the Harpex, recordsthe shipping rates for container ships, which carry finished goods. Both indexes can be found and followed on the internet.] " - David StevensonAssociate Editor, Money Week (UK). [ http://www.moneyweek.com/news-and-charts/economics/global/global-economy-shipping-baltic-dry-index-20500 ]Author's Info on Wikipedia - Author on ebay - Author on Amazon - More Quotes by this AuthorStart Searching Amazon for GiftsSend as Free eCard with optional Google Image

[Quote No.38772] Need Area: Money > Invest "Volatility Index (VIX) -
The VIX is often called the fear gauge.
It reflects the options activity on the Chicago Board of Options Exchange (CBOE).
The VIX shows how the smart money (option traders) are betting on the SP500 over the next 30 days. These numbers are then annualized.
For example, if the VIX is 15, this represents an expected annualized change of 15% over the next 30 days. Thus one can infer that the index option markets expect the S&P 500 to move up or down 15%/√12 = 4.33% over the next 30-day period...
That is, index options are priced with the assumption of a 68% likelihood (one standard deviation) that the magnitude of the S&P 500's 30-day return will be less than 4.33% (up or down).
" - Christian A. DeHaemerQuote from Wealth Daily newsletter, Tuesday, March 6th, 2012.Author's Info on Wikipedia - Author on ebay - Author on Amazon - More Quotes by this AuthorStart Searching Amazon for GiftsSend as Free eCard with optional Google Image

[Quote No.38781] Need Area: Money > Invest "Over the past 30 years, an offensively minded Federal Reserve and their global counterparts were printing money, lowering yields and bringing forward a false sense of monetary wealth. Successful investing in a deleveraging, low interest rate environment will require defensive in addition to offensive skills. Interest rates have a mathematical bottom and when they get there, the washing of the financial market's hair produces a lot less lather when it's wet, and a lot less body after the blow dry. At the zero bound [ZIRP - zero interest rate policy], not only are yields rendered impotent to elevate P/E ratios and lower real estate cap rates, but they begin to poison the financial well. Low yields, instead of fostering capital gains for investors via the magic of present value discounting and lower credit spreads, begin to reduce household incomes, lower corporate profit margins and wreak havoc on historical business models connected to banking, money market funds and the pension industry. The offensively oriented investment world that we have grown so used to over the past three decades is being stonewalled by a zero bound goal line stand. Investment defense is coming of age." - Bill GrossPIMCO March 2012 Letter Author's Info on Wikipedia - Author on ebay - Author on Amazon - More Quotes by this AuthorStart Searching Amazon for GiftsSend as Free eCard with optional Google Image

[Quote No.38782] Need Area: Money > Invest "You simply cannot create investment opportunities when they're not there. When prices are high, it's inescapable that prospective returns are low. That single sentence provides a great deal of guidance as to appropriate portfolio actions. Investment risk comes primarily from too-high prices, and too-high prices often come from excessive optimism and inadequate skepticism and risk aversion. Contributing underlying factors can include low prospective returns on safer investments, recent good performance by risky ones, strong inflows of capital, and easy availability of credit. That same pattern of taking new and bigger risks in order to perpetuate return often repeats in a cyclical pattern. The motto of those who reach for return seems to be: 'If you can't get the return you need from safe investments, pursue it via risky investments.' It takes a lot of hard work or a lot of luck to turn something bought at a too-high price into a successful investment. Patient opportunism - waiting for bargains - is often your best strategy." - Howard MarksOaktree Capital, 'The Most Important Thing' (2011).Author's Info on Wikipedia - Author on ebay - Author on Amazon - More Quotes by this AuthorStart Searching Amazon for GiftsSend as Free eCard with optional Google Image

[Quote No.38789] Need Area: Money > Invest "[Besides the PE -Price Earnings- ratio of a stock and the share market in relation to its historical range, it is important to consider the PEG -Price Earnings Growth- ratio. Good value is when the PEG ratio is below 0.75 and starting to get overvalued at around 1.50. The relative value between bond yields and capital growth, dividend yield and Earnings Price ratios also effects the market's view. But growth is still very important as the following article says.]
As soon as the Fed[eral Reserve Bank] stops flooding the markets with liquidity, or when investors recognize that the emperor is naked, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is poised to plunge to about 6,000 from 13,000 today. When the drop occurs I have no idea, but unless incomes again start growing at more than 5% a year and since a 5%+ growth rate is unlikely anytime soon, stocks will plunge when the Feds fix stops. Why Dow 6,000 for a bottom estimate? Historically stock prices sold at a 10 PE when income growth was 3% or less and with the Dow at 13,000 the PE is 23 today using Robert Shiller's 10 year earnings PE.
Historically there have been three major bull markets since 1900 each lasting 24 to 25 years. During each bull run income growth averaged over 5% after inflation; and as a result of that rapid income growth the price to earnings ratio, or PE, grew rapidly.
On the other hand, during the 1930’s bear market and from 1967 to 1982 when stocks did nothing, income growth averaged 3% net of inflation or less. During those low growth times, the PE dropped to 10 or less.
Surprise, PEs expand when income growth is rapid and PEs decline when income growth slows. PE growth and PE contraction is what really creates a bull and bear market.
What causes rapid income growth is a major breakthrough in communications. A breakthrough in communication is a breakthrough in wealth creation. Each of the three 24, 25 year long bull runs started with a major communications breakthrough. And each run ended when the communication breakthrough matured and created excesses.
Going back to 1904 when the Dow bottomed at 31, the communication breakthroughs of that time were telephones, electricity and automobiles. Those breakthroughs not only created a lot of wealth but also the possibility of modern cities. Post World War 1 US incomes grew by much more than 5% per year on average and the PE of the stock market tripled from 10 in 1918 to 30 by 1929. By 1929 the excesses created by the prior boom took the economy down.
The second bull market that started during World War 2 and ended in 1966 was due to communication breakthroughs in television, air travel, interstates, in essence the suburbanization of America. That breakthrough had incomes growing rapidly, exceeding 5% per year on average from the end of the Korean War through 1966. All that resulted in PEs tripling from 8 in 1942 to 24 in 1966. By 1967 the interstate system was pretty much built out and we thought we could fight a war in Vietnam and on poverty at the same time. Add a spike in oil prices, and incomes after inflation grew very slowly for 15 years and average PE was around 10.
In 1982 the communication breakthrough that started with the IBM PC began a 25 year long bull market where stock prices surged 14 times. President Reagan cutting the top income tax bracket from over 50% to the thirties did not hurt either. By the end of 1980’s the PC boom was over and stock prices sold off for a while. Then in the early 1990’s the economy took off again. What happened? The internet. By the early 2000’s the market sold off again, why? The internet excess collapsed. By 2003 income growth started soaring again. What happened? Broadband. Broadband modernized the entire world. The China miracle would not be possible without broadband. The 25 year boom from 1982 to 2007 resulted in massive excesses being wrung out now.
OK, so what does all that mean for stock prices today? If the key to long term bull markets is a communication breakthrough, unfortunately there is none in the offing at least according to my Silicon Valley buddies. If any of you know of some breakthrough technology, please tell us.
Without the benefits of a breakthrough, income growth is probably limited to 3% or so. And that is before all the headwinds we face. Looking at history, during times when income growth was at 3% or below PEs averaged around 10. That means that if it were not for the Fed’s fix, the Dow would be now be around 6,000 and not the 13,000 it is.
The big question is when does the collapse begin? Your guess is as good as mine.
" - Charles BidermanPresident and CEO TrimTabs Investment Research, as well as Portfolio Manager, TrimTabs Float Shrink ETF (TTFS). Quoted 13th March, 2012. [
http://trimtabs.com/blog/2012/03/13/bidermans-daily-edge-3132012-stock-could-drop-50-when-fed-fix-ends/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TrimtabsMoneyBlog+%28TrimTabs+Money+Blog%29 ]Author's Info on Wikipedia - Author on ebay - Author on Amazon - More Quotes by this AuthorStart Searching Amazon for GiftsSend as Free eCard with optional Google Image

[Quote No.38817] Need Area: Money > Invest "[Here is a simple example of an investing method used by a trader who uses some macro and some technical chart methods without any fundamental data like company earnings, etc.]
Follow the Drill:
Today’s piece is going to be short. I want this little missive to stick with you and make you think. Hopefully, it will assist you with forming your own definitive investment strategy. A strategy you can use regardless of the market environment.
I am going this route today based on some things that I have persistently heard over the past several months. Some have pointed to concerns that make them pessimistic about the market. While I am not suggesting you put on blinders and ignore concerns, things need to be put into proper perspective.
'Volume wasn’t what we wanted to see.' I have read comments like that on every advance since the market bottomed in 2009. But, if you closely analyze the market since the 2009 bottom, volume is just fine. How do I define just fine? From the lows volume on moves higher has been greater than downside volume. That covers volume for me. I am confused at what the volume bears are looking for. Are they looking for some number? If there is greater upside volume than downside volume then the market is healthy. Certainly there is less leverage and proprietary trading in the financial sector, but I do not think it is necessary to go too deep into the analysis. More buyers in good markets than sellers in bad markets, sounds good to me.
People either view the markets from a top-down or bottom-up perspective. Those that take a top down view look at the overall macro environment and then try to determine which sectors will benefit in that environment and then choose individual stocks. Bottom-up stock pickers will look at individual companies and select those they feel offer the best prospects going forward. They will construct portfolios consisting of their best ideas.
Let’s take a look at the top-down approach. There are endless sources to give you an overall global economic view. Every brokerage firm on the planet came out with their 2012 forecast. These forecasts consist of hundreds of pages of analysis with chart after chart, graphs, correlations, and moving averages. As part of my job I read all of these things. After reading 20 or 30, frankly I do not come away with all that much. Hey, smart guy, is the global economy getting better or is it getting worse? How did you come up with that and how do I know when things are changing? I guess if they came up with concise reports they feel we would be unimpressed. So, for me, I need a solid read on things that I can understand and track. For me, the most effective way to track the global economy is through the [OECD's Composite leading Indicators CLI's - both Leading and coincident blended into one number, US Conference Board's and Economic Cycle Research Institute's] Leading Economic Indicators (LEIs). They have been improving for several months now. The market is up over 20% from last October’s lows. For me, as long as the LEIs are improving stocks should perform well.
That is all well and good but how do I find good stocks? When should I look to add to stocks? 1-2-3-4. I keep things simple. Stocks are basing (1), advancing (2), topping (3) or declining (4). I try to put as many 1’s and 2’s in my portfolio as I can and sell the 3’s and 4’s. The trend in how many stocks are in each category will give you a pretty good idea of how the market is doing. At the close of trading last Friday 74% of the stocks in the S&P 500 were basing or advancing and 76% of secondary stocks were in those categories [refer internet graphs of percentage of S&P 500 above 200 Day Moving Average. This methodology resembles Stan Weinstein's method described in his best-selling book, 'Secrets For Profiting In Bull and Bear Markets']. So, in the current environment you have a better than 7 out of 10 chance of picking a winner.
I am neither a bull nor a bear! I try to be bullish when it is prudent and bearish when the facts tell me that is the best viewpoint. What is my take on things now? The global economy has been improving for several months; the LEIs are my guide here. The charts are telling me that there are more attractive stocks each week. Therefore I am constructive on the market. When things change I will plug this incremental data into my own template and make the appropriate changes. That is my drill. What is yours!
" - Thomas J SmithCertified Financial Advisor and Senior Vice President, Senior Portfolio Manager at PFS Group. Quoted from Financial Sense 30th January, 2012. [http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/thomas-j-smith/follow-the-drill ]Author's Info on Wikipedia - Author on ebay - Author on Amazon - More Quotes by this AuthorStart Searching Amazon for GiftsSend as Free eCard with optional Google Image

[Quote No.38818] Need Area: Money > Invest "[Here is another simple example of an investing method used by a trader who uses some macro and some technical chart methods without any fundamental data like company earnings, etc.]
The long term positive trend in the market remains intact. The technical position of the market continues to be strong. Leading Economic Indicators were again strong last week and positive economic news was released today. From a short term perspective the technical condition of the market gave us some troubling signs last week. Based on these short term issues the probability of a pullback has increased. Based on longer term factors any pullbacks should be orderly.
The drill says I have to look at the overall technical condition of the market each week. So, as we start this week where do we stand? 84% of the stocks in the S&P 500 and in the secondary markets are in fine shape technically [above the 200 Day Moving Average]. With better than 8 out of 10 stocks either basing or advancing I have to remain constructive on the market. With all the major indexes trading above their important moving averages, pullbacks should remain orderly.
The near term technical picture [for example the 50 and 100 Day Moving Averages] is not as favorable. There is increased churning in the market. Several stocks have broken above resistance but then faltered as new buyers failed to come in and push stocks higher. Last week I discussed some of the negative divergences that are developing. The Russell 2000 index failed to move to a new high, as the other major indexes have. Last Wednesday another negative divergence developed. New 2012 intraday highs were hit last Wednesday on the S&P 500, Dow and the NASDAQ. Again it was the smaller cap Russell index that failed to confirm the move. Also, key reversal days were seen last week on the Dow and S&P 500. A key reversal day is when a stock, or an index in this case, makes a new high for the move, and then not only closes down on the day, but closes below the low of the prior day. This sort of action can signal the loss of momentum in a move and foreshadow a pullback in the market. Short term support levels for the S&P 500, Dow, and NASDAQ are as follows: 1352/12,880/2920. The Russell has already closed below short term support. Intermediate term support (including the Russell this time) levels are, 1240/11,735/2640/734.
[Let's consider some recent economic news especially those that are leading economic indicator components.] February ISM Services numbers were released this morning. Again, we received better than expected numbers from the economic front. The number was 57.3 versus a 56.0 estimates. February was a strong month for purchasing manager index numbers. Eight of the ten PMIs released so far for the month have shown improvement. The ISM manufacturing number released last week was disappointing. Housing activity and improved credit conditions are two areas of the economy that continue to show improvement. The economy will clearly benefit from more worthy borrowers having access to commercial and consumer credit.
Let’s sum things up. The long term picture of the market remains positive. That is best evidenced by the fact that better than 80% of all stocks are in sound shape technically. Near term the market seems to have lost some momentum. The negative divergences that have developed increase the chances of a correction in the markets. Positive technical and economic numbers suggest pullbacks will be controlled. Look to the support levels I gave to gauge the strength of any correction should the market get tough this week." - Thomas J SmithCertified Financial Advisor and Senior Vice President, Senior Portfolio Manager at PFS Group. Quoted from Financial Sense, 5th March, 2012. [http://www.financialsense.com/node/7770?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+fso+%28Financial+Sense%29&utm_term=FSO ]Author's Info on Wikipedia - Author on ebay - Author on Amazon - More Quotes by this AuthorStart Searching Amazon for GiftsSend as Free eCard with optional Google Image

[Quote No.38822] Need Area: Money > Invest "Valuation is not the most important problem in finance; valuation is not the most interesting problem in finance; valuation is the only problem for finance. Once you know value, everything happens. Cash moves for value. More price does not mean more value. If you do not recognize the difference, the fundamental difference between price and value, then you are doomed... The Chicago School of Economics has been telling us for a century that price and value are identical, ie, they are the same number. What this means is that there is no such thing as a good deal, there is not such a thing as a bad deal, there are only fair deals." - Sylvain RaynesSylvain Raynes works at RR Consulting and teaches at Baruch College. [http://blogs.reuters.com/christopher-whalen/2011/10/07/fair-value-accounting-derivatives-increase-global-debt-deflation/ ]Author's Info on Wikipedia - Author on ebay - Author on Amazon - More Quotes by this AuthorStart Searching Amazon for GiftsSend as Free eCard with optional Google Image