The Red Sox really worked over the Yankees pitching staff this weekend, so the Joe Girardi‘s team comes into tonight’s series opener against the Orioles with a bullpen short of healthy and reliable arms. Mariano Rivera probably won’t be available after throwing 35 pitches and two innings yesterday, and both David Robertson (shoulder) and Boone Logan (biceps, elbow) definitely won’t be available. If there was ever a time for a) CC Sabathia to step up and eat some innings, and b) the offense to score a boatload or runs, this is it. Here’s the lineup that will face right-hander Chris Tillman:

And on the mound is the left-hander Sabathia. He has completed seven full innings of work just once in his last five starts and twice in his last ten starts. One of those two was last time out, so hopefully he repeats that effort. The Yankees need Sabathia to soak up some serious innings tonight.

It’s cloudy in Baltimore but there is no threat of rain tonight. It is hot and humid though, typical B’more weather. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm ET and can be seen on YES locally and MLB Network nationally. Enjoy.

Roster Update: Zoilo Almonte (ankle) is with the team and has been activated off the DL. He played in two rehab games with Double-A Trenton last week.

Injury Updates: Robertson (shoulder) will play catch today. If that goes well, he’ll throw a light side session tomorrow. He hopes to be available for tomorrow’s game, but the Yankees made Shawn Kelley wait one extra day this weekend and I assume Robertson will have to do the same … Derek Jeter (ankle) won’t do any baseball activity today and it seems unlikely he will play tomorrow … Travis Hafner (shoulder) is with the team and could be activated any day now.

We finally got somewhere, because this is a very concrete claim that is simply not true, and it goes to the heart of a fundamental aspect of both baseball and probability in general.

To repeat what is in fact true:
Say you flip a fair coin 6 times. If it comes up heads the first 5 times, the probability of it coming up heads on the 6th time is still 50%. And it’s 50% no matter what happened in those first 5 flips.

And the same is also true for things that aren’t close to 50%. If you flip a weighted coin that comes up heads only 30% of the time, the probability of it coming up heads on the 6th flip is 30% no matter what happened in the first 5 flips.

Do you disagree with this? It sounds like you do, or at least did in that thread. If so, I can point you to resources explaining it very clearly and unequivocally.

Winter

Technically if there are probably fewer high cards left in the deck after five winning hands than after five losing hands, so a loss might be more likely. However, looking back at your original conversation you are absolutely right that independent events like coin flips or at bats don’t influence each other.

If Greg is reading this, I would encourage him to learn more about his FALLACY!

Pasta Stumbling Sojo

Yeah, the blackjack thing has small caveats because hands are not quite independent due to cards being removed from the deck. That’s why I’d rather focus on coin flips or other things that are truly independent (roulette, slots, rolling dice, etc.), even though the effect in blackjack is very small.

Pasta Stumbling Sojo

Ha, I just noticed that the example at that link uses “Greg” as the person who believes in the fallacy. Nice.

Alkaline

Oh god. This is stuff I taught highschoolers.

They didn’t believe me until I had 4 kids flip coins 50 times each.

dkidd

the drop-off after granderson is so swift and steep that james cameron is inventing a new type of submersible vehicle to explore it

https://twitter.com/KramerIndustry Kramerica Industries

Nice crowd in Baltimore, given that they’re only two games out of a playoff spot.

*golf clap*

Cy Pettitte

fuck yea A-Rod.

RetroRob

It’ll be sad when the team will have Jason Nix at third again next year.

SDB

maybe they’ll re-sign Youk and we’ll see him for about 8 games!

Freddy’s Dead

A bomb. Hope this is a taste of what’s to come.

Freddy’s Dead

Sori shoulda hit that. Come on CC.

https://twitter.com/KramerIndustry Kramerica Industries

Sabathia off to yet another stellar start.

Freddy’s Dead

Held that lead for several entire seconds.

Wheels

Goodbye lead.

SDB

CC is turning into Fredo.

https://twitter.com/KramerIndustry Kramerica Industries

what the hell is going on?

Tom

Schowalter’s a jackass…

http://www.penuel-law.com/ Cuso

Gee, Buck has to make bullshit up again. Never saw that before.

#cheaptactics

SDB

What the hell just happened? Can someone explain?

Wheels

Wow, what’s this all about?

Alkaline

For the BP is a nice rallying call.

itsallhowuseeit

What was the argument about?

David N

Did Girardi disrespect Flanny again? Or did the Yankees make a contract offer to Wieters mid-game?

http://www.penuel-law.com/ Cuso

Explanation: it was about nothing. Buck makes up shit all the time to fire his club up. It was phantom bullshit.

Cy Pettitte

Joe must have disrespected Flanny

Winter

According to MASN, Girardi was having a word with the Orioles 3B coach. Weird.

http://www.penuel-law.com/ Cuso

I’m watching the MASN feed, too. Interesting how they “figured out” that it has to do with the 3B coach, but still have no idea what it was about.

Speculative answer is speculative.

(They’re full of shit, too)

https://twitter.com/KramerIndustry Kramerica Industries

So glad the Flanny meme was brought up here.

Just stellar stuff. Insanely comical. And it was right around this exact same time two years ago this BS was going on.

Freddy’s Dead

CC’s pitch count nice and low so far.

itsallhowuseeit

Wow that stadium is empty

Winter

It’s just Hal being greedy again.

Oh wait, you meant OPCY. I guess maybe the Yankees don’t have it so bad after all.

Freddy’s Dead

Can somebody school me on the Flanny thing? Clueless here.

Flanny’s Dead

Disrespect!

YankeeFan

If I’m Joe you get these umps to place these coaches in the boxes at 1st and 3rd and throw a fastball high and tight when they’re expecting a slider if they are really stealing signs.

OldYanksFan

Distance and location of ARod’s HR please?

Winter

Rigt-center. Maybe 380 by my guess.

OldYanksFan

Thank you.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/roadgeek/ Roadgeek Adam

And the umpiring crew for this series.

Ed Hickox (No. 15 / HP) – In his 24th season of umpiring, Hickox, noted for being at 3B during Nolan Ryan’s last MLB game, and the HP umpire at Matt Garza’s no-no, Hickox is a patient umpire, with only under 40 ejections since he joined. That ain’t bad. His strike zone has a very interesting situation, where he’s not a pitcher’s umpire, he’s not a batters umpire, but the walks and strikeouts are normal.

Jim Joyce (No. 66 / 1B-CC) – Jim Joyce gets a lot of notorious crap for the blown call on Armando Gallaraga’s perfec game in 2010, Joyce is a pretty good umpire aside from his “STRIKE!!” shriek. Joyce is in his first season as an official crew chief and in his 27th season of umpiring. Joyce has a middle of the range strike zone, not really in favor of the hitters or pitcher and tend to stay right in the consistency bucket. Also a very patient umpire like Hickox, but has higher ejection rates over the years.

Jeff Nelson (No. 45 / 2B) – No not that Jeff Nelson, this Nelson has been umpiring since 1997. Nelson used to be a pitchers umpire, but is now mostly a hitters umpire and man does it bite some times. he has an average attitude towards ejection rate, being middle of the range.

Jim Wolf (No. 78/ 3B) – Brother of current free agent pitcher Randy Wolf, Jim is in his 14th year of umpiring, he has ejected under 25 people since he started, which is tad higher than average. Similar to Nelson, Wolf has also adjusted from a pitchers ump to a hitters umpire, but is also known for being one of the most popular umpires as voted by the players. Wolf also has the best arm in baseball when it comes to throwing a ball, and I come to wonder why. ;)

Anyway, your average crew. Nothing really big to say.

Wheels

Ken Singleton said this is the best crew in the league, in his opinion.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/roadgeek/ Roadgeek Adam

Yeah well, my computer took 40 minutes to make me write that.

Darren

The guys in the booth think the dustup with Buck and Joe was about stealing signs.

Also, HOLY SHIT I didn’t realize how skinny CC got. Was he sick, or was this really planned weight loss? How did he stick with it this year when it didn’t take the other year (after quitting Cap’n Crunch)?

Also, now I want Cap’n Crunch.

RetroRob

Not using Betances is silly.

Freddy’s Dead

You mean yesterday? Apparently it was completely out of the question.

RetroRob

I was reacting to what the broadcast booth crew was saying. There seems to be reluctance to use him, even though the bullpen is depleted.

Alkaline

Bleh. How did the O’s score? I got football on.

Flanny’s Dead

Double to lead off, bunted to third, sac fly. In the first.

Freddy’s Dead

Leadoff double. Manufactured one.

RetroRob

Machado should be a shortstop.

Cy Pettitte

nice of them to let Tillman get his pitch count back in order

RetroRob

The W.B. Mason guy’s day job. And I have no idea why I all of a sudden decided to see who the John Flaherty look-alike was, but I did.

Down by two, Tillman’s dealing, CC is at 75 pitches in the fifth. When they get into our pen, it should really get interesting.

Freddy’s Dead

What pen are you referring to? Nobody seems to have any clue who will close this game.

Bubba

The wheels on the CC bus come rolling off, rolling off, rolling off
The wheels on the CC bus come rolling off every damn game.

Jonathan

The Orioles announcers are absolutely brutal. ARod apparently doesn’t have any arm strength. Also, CC needs to either learn to pitch with this weight loss or start eating some serious calories. I remember David Wells and Jon Lieber among others saying they actually pitched pitcher because they had a better rhythm and balance in their motion. I got CC and Andy’s autograph back to back in KC this year and Andy was significantly larger than CC. It’s only gotten worse (results and his weight loss). This CC is completely unacceptable and you can tell his stuff is basically what it was last year but he has zero command with any of his pitches and is behind nonstop.

this team is dead, their chances were slim after the Sox series but they’re dead now. You can call time of death now.

JGYank

Tillman has no movement on his fastball. We should be hitting it.

Rolling Doughnut

Feels like we’re down 10 runs, too bad Swish isn’t available

Bubba

Well that could have been a whole lot worse.

Anderson Silva

So, 3 hits in 6 innings against Tillman. They have really given up.

Anderson Silva

Straight FB, middle of the plate, and he swings through it.

Bubba

Am I the only one who watches the Yankees and hope the ump pulls a Drebin?

Darren

C’mon, a bloop and a blast and we’re tied. We can do it, it’s only the bottom of the 7th! This isn’t the Reid Brignac Yankees of 3 months ago.

Anderson Silva

3 hits, 0 BBs, 9 Ks against Tillman in 7 innings. If they are not the Reid Brignac Yankees, they are doing their best impersonation of them.

Darren

Yeah, but we at least have the potential to blast one, and an actual bench.

https://twitter.com/KramerIndustry Kramerica Industries

What a putrid performance tonight.

Anderson Silva

Not a single pitch in the bottom of the zone, yet the team wasn’t able to put a single ball in play in that inning.

https://twitter.com/KramerIndustry Kramerica Industries

Truly amazing how bad pitchers are at throwing to second base.

Anderson Silva

CC is the worst at it.

Anderson Silva

I have never seem the fat guy hit the second base on that type of play. Yet another mistake.

Icedcoffee

Yankees really know how to win these important games. Never seen a team suck when they need to win.

Cy Pettitte

maybe CC will just retire due to embarrassment

Icedcoffee

There are several others who need to join him – Pettitte, Tex ( he would be equally awful if playing ), Stewart, Hughes, Joba, oh what the hell, the entire team. Tis is what declining returns looks like on the heels of over paying for past performance.

Icedcoffee

I believe that CC is no longer a pitcher that can do much more than take up a spot that is more deserved by someone else. Lucky for him he is on the Yankees where there is no talent to worry about. What a disaster this team is!

https://twitter.com/KramerIndustry Kramerica Industries

1-4 to start the crucial 11-game stretch.

Way to stay alive, guys.

stuart a

cc pitching his usual avg or worse game.

offense on fire tonight. cannot catch up to 92 gas. so at 92 tillman throws hard enough but CC at 93 does not, I understand.

how many 2 out runs tonight for the birds? 3…guessing not watching every second of the game but CC is a bust…

btw arod has absolutely no range in the field. he is like mike morse at 3b

Frank

Keep that photo above for a momento. It’s the last time you’ll see CC win a playoff game.

Winter

Wanna bet?

Pasta Stumbling Sojo

I’ve been waiting for a while for a good time to point out that Overbay looks exactly like Ed Begley Jr. Now seems like as good a time as any.

Stan Sitwell goes yard!

forensic

I have an irrational dislike of Tommy Hunter just because their radio announcer calls him Tommy The Hunter.

Needless to say, that inning didn’t help things.

Anderson Silva

What a joke. How do you not PH for Ichiro?

Cy Pettitte

still can’t believe they gave him a 2 yr deal but wouldn’t give one to Martin

Itsallhowuseeit

Ahhh the ole dont swing at pitches right down the middle approach

widget

oh my that first pitch to Gardner was a strike? Fuck these umps.

lee

pitchfx had all three of those called strikes out of the zone. the last one was 5″ outside. not that it matters…..

Anderson Silva

Last chance, hope they at least put up a fight.

forensic

Heh, I thought that chorus of boos was actually for Johnson, then I realized A-Rod was coming up.

Guess it could be a combination of the two though.

Winter

Gift out in the ninth. Make them pay.

Tar

Does erica still post here? If so…. E we need a letter and quick.

ropeadope

Haven’t seen her since opening day.

Tar

Thanks

Trey

You coming back to Lohud ever? Still crazy as hell over there though.

Anderson Silva

What a fucking choker.

Wheels

Ha, that throw was so shitty.

JGYank

Don’t steal Sori…

Anderson Silva

could really use a HR by Grandy here.

Cy Pettitte

RIP 2013 season, probably their last chance to make the playoffs for the next few years

Winter

I’m not prepared to call the 2014 and 2015 seasons before 2013 is even over.

Cy Pettitte

most likely no Pettitte, Mo, A-Rod, Kuroda, Grandy etc. It’s too many holes to fill with too small of a budget.

Freddy’s Dead

Pettite and Mo look to be running outta gas to me anyway. Kuroda could be back. I’m not sure why you’re counting Grandy off the team already. Pineda hopefully can pitch. Cashman might do something right. There’s always hope, that’s one reason I’m a Yankees fan.

Anderson Silva

Not good enough, the definition of the 2013 Yankees.

Freddy’s Dead

We’re almost cooked. Hafta win almost every game from now on to have a chance. I say that without checking on any math. Sure feels that way.

Freddy’s Dead

KC threatening to tie the game against the tribe.

Freddy’s Dead

Update: nope. Cleveland and the Birds open up more daylight. Yankees on life support.

JGYank

Well there’s 3 games left against them but this one is a killer. We’re suddenly dropping in the standings and I can’t see things improving with the injuries in the pen.

Tonight CC wasn’t awful but was good either. The offense came up short and at least Warren soaked up some innings. We are in a tough spot here. The next 6 will make or break the season if it isn’t already broken.