The global ballot

According to the latest polls, the Democrats are almost certain to take the White House but what will happen in the Senate and the Congress?

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The American Presidential election has become a global ballot. True, the global constituency, following this election with far greater interest than usual, does not actually have the franchise. But the whole of the planet has a stake in the result.

This has actually been true for a very long time and certainly since Woodrow Wilson asked Congress for a declaration of war on Imperial Germany in 1917. While the limits of American strategic influence and military reach have become evident during the Bush Administration, there is no question that the United States remains the most significant global power. While its economic strength must be considered in the context of the developing European Federal prospect and the emerging economies of China and India, there is no question that the American response to the consequences of the global financial meltdown is also of critical impact.

All the polls now point to a convincing win for the Obama/Biden ticket. Even allowing for the Bradley effect, which refers to the unexpected defeat of Mayor Tom Bradley for the Governorship of California in 1982, despite a double digit lead in the polls, the Democrats look set to reclaim the White House comfortably. Indeed, the Presidential election may well be decided early, should the Democrats poll as strongly on the Atlantic seaboard, perhaps adding Virginia, North Carolina and Florida to their tally as all the available research now suggests.

But what of the House and Senate? And do the results for Congress matter to Australia?

In both Houses, the Democrats look set for major wins. And the results actually matter a great deal.

Three essential points need to be made about the Congressional outcomes. First, the Democrats appear headed for a gain in the House of some 25 seats or more and a minimum gain in the Senate of some seven to eight seats.

Currently, the Democrats command a narrow majority in the House of Representatives and the Senate is split evenly, with two Independents acting as swing votes.

There are clear indications that the Democratic tide is running so strongly that the Party could actually achieve the high-water mark of 60 Senate seats, which would give them a capacity to end filibusters and help expedite the new President's program through the Senate.

There are two races that are critical to this potential outcome. The first is in Alaska where the conviction of Republican Senator Ted Stevens on a corruption charge means that his opponent, Anchorage Mayor, Mark Begich, is a likely winner. In North Carolina, Senator Liddy Dole faces a strengthening challenge from State Senator Kay Hagan and appears very vulnerable. Here, the Democrats have made much of the suggestion that Senator Dole seems to have spent only two weeks of the last year in the State, according to Senate travel records.

The second point is that the Democrats who are being elected are likely to be far more insular and introspective about the American future.

In these uncertain times, this can lead to protectionist sentiment, especially for those Democrats elected with the backing of the AFL CIO affiliates. In the wake of the crisis on Wall Street, we need not expect a reversion to the Smoot/Hawley tariff laws of the 30's but we need to anticipate some Democrats arguing for a heavy handed regulatory oversight of US financial institutions, as we saw in the Sarbanes Oxley Act, passed in the wake of Enron and other scandals.

Finally, given the scarring of the American body politic by the Iraq War, we can expect Congress to be more assertive in the foreign policy role. The US Senate has always had final determination on Treaties but has not been the decisive player in American foreign policy since the period immediately after Vietnam in the late 1970's. The new Administration will want to carry opinion on Capitol Hill and is therefore likely to be cautious in projecting American power abroad, with the exception of the commitment to confronting the Taliban in Afghanistan.

Congress is likely also to be cautious on free trade agreements. Candidate Obama has been sceptical on NAFTA and hostile on global outsourcing of US jobs. Should he wish to revive trade liberalisation, perhaps via the DOHA round, President Obama would need to expand much precious political capital.

Beginning next year Capitol Hill is going to require the same kind of careful Australian cultivation, especially of freshmen and women in Congress, as has traditionally characterised the building of bridges to an incoming Administration.

For a more assertive Congress is likely to make its presence resonate, both domestically and internationally.