Janša eyes return to post as prime minister

Borut Pahor of Slovenia, one of just three social democratic prime ministers in the European Union, is all but certain to be voted out of office in an early election on Sunday (4 December). But any predictions beyond that are made difficult by volatile opinion polls and the emergence of new parties.

Until a few weeks ago, the opposition Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) of Janez Janša, a former centre-right prime minister, was favoured to be the clear winner. But the launch of two new political parties in recent weeks has changed the game. According to opinion polls, the SDS is expected to obtain around 30% of the vote, the two new parties between 13% and 21% each, and the ruling Social Democrats around 10%.

Janša is still expected to emerge as prime minister – a post he held in 2004-08 – but he could be forced into complex coalition talks if, as now seems likely, he requires the support of smaller parties in the parliament. One of the new parties is the List Zoran Jankovic´ (LZJ), launched by the independent but left-leaning (and popular) mayor of Ljubljana, the capital. Jankovic´ is a former chief executive of retailing giant Mercator. The other party, the Civic List of Gregor Virant (DLGV) – a minister in Janša’s previous government – is more centrist, but Virant’s defection from the Janša camp has created bad blood between the two.

Corruption charges

Janša is currently on trial on charges of corruption in connection with the purchase of armoured vehicles from a Finnish firm during his time as prime minister. (He also served as defence minister during the country’s brief war of independence 20 years ago.) The trial has been postponed until after the election; it has not had a significant impact on opinion polls. Janša has denied any wrongdoing.

This is the first government since Slovenia split off from Yugoslavia in 1991 not to serve out its full term. Early election became inevitable when two smaller parties left the ruling coalition in September, leading to a vote of no confidence in Pahor.

Slovenia has been sucked into the eurozone’s sovereign-debt crisis, with government bonds for weeks commanding more than the 7% interest that is seen as critical. However, Slovenia’s public debt still stands at only 43% of gross domestic product, double the level when Pahor took power.