COVID-19: Potential EMEIA economic scenarios and their impact by sector

The COVID-19 pandemic continues to have a growing impact on the global economy, with uncertainty over the economic impact across all sectors set against an ever-changing situation. Here, we try to lay out potential scenarios for how the health crisis might shape economies across Europe over the coming 18 - 24 months, and the impacts that these scenarios will have on major industries.

In all scenarios explored in our report, the economy is expected to enter an initial period of contraction, with lead indicators of which of the subsequent recovery scenarios is most likely for a given economy to be informed by a number of variables including: the strength of each government’s social distancing measures, potential curative treatments and/or testing programs. The speed of recovery across all of these shapes will also be impacted by each government’s fiscal policy and other government interventions (which can vary significantly by country) as we come out of this unprecedented time.