USDA raises 2019 wheat and corn ending stocks

WASHINGTON, D.C., U.S. — Standing out in 2018-19 grain and oilseed forecasts in the December World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report issued Dec. 11 were higher projections for wheat and corn ending stocks. The 2018-19 supply-and-demand forecasts for soybeans were unchanged from November.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture raised its forecast for the carryover of wheat on June 1, 2019, by 25 million bushels, to 974 million bushels. While a large number, the carryover forecast still was down 125 million bushels, or 11%, from 1.099 billion bushels in 2018 and compared with 1.181 billion bushels in 2017. The recent five-year average wheat carryover was 920 million bushels.

The hike in the carryover forecast was tied to a 25-million-bushel reduction in the USDA’s forecast for 2018-19 wheat exports to 1 billion bushels. The USDA in commentary accompanying the supply-and-demand forecasts said, “Wheat exports are lowered 25 million bushels to 1 billion with all the reduction in hard red winter on historically low exports for this class in the first half of the 2018-19 marketing year.”

All-wheat supply estimates and forecasts for 2018-19 were unchanged with total supply remaining at 3.123 billion bushels, up 45 million bushels from 2017-18.

With the exception of the lower export forecast, all-wheat use projections for 2018-19 were unchanged from November at 970 million bushels for food, 69 million bushels for seed, and 110 million bushels for feed and residual.

The USDA forecast the carryover of corn on Sept. 1, 2019, at 1.781 billion bushels, up 45 million bushels from the November projection at 1.736 billion bushels but down 359 million bushels, or 17%, from 2.140 billion bushels in 2018. The 2018-19 corn supply forecast was lowered 5 million bushels, to 16.811 billion bushels, as imports were lowered 5 million bushels, to 45 million.

Domestic use of corn in 2018-19 was forecast at 12.580 billion bushels, down 50 million bushels from the November outlook and compared with 12.355 billion bushels in 2017-18. The use of corn in manufacturing ethanol was forecast at 5.600 billion bushels, down 50 million bushels from the November projection and down 5 million bushels from 2017-18. The USDA lowered its forecast for corn used for ethanol based on the most recent data from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report and weekly ethanol data as reported by the Energy Information Administration for the month of November.

“These data imply corn used for ethanol during the September-to-November quarter declined relative to the prior year for the first time since 2012,” the USDA said.

Corn exports in 2018-19 were forecast at 2.450 billion bushels, unchanged from November but up 12 million bushels from the 2017-18 outgo of 2.438 billion bushels.

Food and residual use of corn in 2018-19 was forecast at 5.500 billion bushels, unchanged from November and up 4% from 5.298 billion bushels in 2017-18.

The USDA forecast the carryover of soybeans on Sept. 1, 2019, at 955 million bushels, unchanged from November and up 517 million bushels, or 118%, from 438 million bushels in 2018. All supply forecasts were unchanged for 2018-19 with the carry-in estimated at 438 million bushels, production at 4.600 billion bushels and imports at 25 million for a total supply of 5.063 billion bushels. Soybean imports were forecast at 25 million bushels, up 3 million from 2017-18.

All demand forecasts for 2018-19 also were unchanged from November. The soybean crush was forecast at 2.080 billion bushels, up 25 million bushels from 2017-18. Seed use was forecast at 96 million bushels, down 8 million bushels from the previous year. Residual use was forecast at 32 million bushels, up 24 million from 2017-18. Soybean exports were forecast at 1.900 billion bushels, down 229 million bushels, or 11%, from 2.129 billion bushels in 2017-18.