Sunday Political Brunch: All Politics is Local, or Is It? August 6, 2017

It is the intersection where two political worlds collide: the landscape of national versus local politics. Nowhere was that more event in the United States this past week, as when President Trump came to West Virginia Thursday to share a stage with Governor Jim Justice, now Republican of West Virginia. There’s a lot on the table here, so let’s “brunch” on that this week:

“Go Where They Love You” – The most recent Gallup Poll had President Trump’s national approval rating at just 38 percent. But among individual states he is most popular in West Virginia with a 60 percent approval rating. That might explain why he visited here twice in the span of just ten days. As I’ve said in this column often, when you are hurting politically from a defeat, go somewhere you are still very popular and change the topic of conversation. On the heels of his loss on the Obamacare repeal, Trump came to Huntington and talked about the growing national and state economies and was greeted with wild cheers.

“Coal is Back, For Now” – So why is the President so popular in West Virginia? A lot of it has to do with his support of the coal industry. On the campaign trail his mantra was, “We’re putting the miners back to work! We’re putting the miners back to work!” The President issued a few Executive Orders rolling back Obama-era regulations that hurt the coal industry. Today coal production in West Virginia is up 31 percent over last year, and nationally coal exports are up 60 percent.

“Two Peas in a Pod” – My local readers know the story well, but my national readers must be scratching their heads saying, “Who is this Jim Justice guy, and why is this former Democrat aligned with President Trump?” Tell me if this sounds familiar: Jim Justice is a billionaire businessman who never held political office, but was elected in 2016. He is well-liked for his maverick and independent streaks and is seemingly beholden to no one. He’s certainly not a clone of Trump, but their similarities and backgrounds are worth noting. There are sharp differences, too. Trump appears very ego-centric, while Justice is a folksy, country “boy next door” type who people just call Jim or Jimmy. At 6 foot 8, and 300-plus pounds (just a guess), and with a shock of white hair, he’s hard to miss in a crowd.

“The Tri-State Triangle” – Huntington, West Virginia sits on the banks of the Ohio River, and is bordered to the west and north by Kentucky and Ohio. It’s known as the Tri-State area, and the Charleston-Huntington media market includes a significant number of counties in all three states. A lot of it is rural coal country, so the voter base in these portions of the three states is heavily pro-Trump. It also has one of the highest per capita populations of veterans in the nation.
Strategically, it was a smart place for Trump to hold a campaign rally (which technically it was, since it was sponsored by his reelection committee).

“All Politics is Local” – It was fascinating to watch how the national press corps and the local media covered this story. I was able to help the CBS and CNN crews from Washington, confirm the Justice party switch a few hours before the rally began (we are affiliates of both networks). Obviously, with our Governor switching parties while on stage with the U.S. President was huge local news. It was our banner headline, and really nothing Trump would say, could top it. When I looked at the national news websites later that night, Trump’s comments on Russia were the main focus, and the Justice party switch was just a small, sidebar story near the bottom of the page.

“Issues Intersect” – The big issues in this region cross state borders. Coal production is still a big industry in all three states, but will never be what it once was. Because of that the regional economy is struggling to transition, and unemployment swells above the national average. The opioid and drug overdose epidemic is at its absolute worst here. West Virginia has the highest drug overdose death rate in the nation, and Huntington is ground zero. Geographically it is an important cog on drug trafficking routes.

“Let You Upstage Me!” – As mentioned, Donald Trump is a very ego-centric man. He has basked on the spotlight for decades, and loves to be center stage. It was fascinating for him to interrupt the middle of his speech and invite Governor Justice on stage to announce he was formally switching from the Democratic to the Republican party. Justice says he had been mulling the switch for weeks after a bruising internal budget battle with Democrats in the Legislature. He says Trump did not ask him to switch parties. But to watch a man of Trump’s titan ego let someone else upstage him was a sight to behold. He really likes Justice and wants his input on a host of issues.

“Getting Stuff Done” – One of the biggest challenges nationally for President Trump is showing that he’s getting things done. The health care defeat and some of the court losses over his immigration policies have been big setbacks, not to mention the constant focus on the Russian election meddling investigation. His one shining accomplishment was appointing Justice Neil Gorsuch to the U.S. Supreme Court. But now the national economy is picking up steam. Unemployment dropped to 4.3 percent (a 16-year low), and the Dow Jones Industrial average is above 22,000 (an all-time high). West Virginia’s growth in GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is three-percent, the second highest of all states. Who knows if these trends will last, but a resurging economy certainly rocketed Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton into second terms.

“Why All of the This Matters” – If he runs for reelection in 2020, President Trump can pretty much count on winning Kentucky and West Virginia and their Electoral College votes. But Ohio will always be a toss-up, battleground state and the President must do everything he can to secure his base in the Buckeye State. A rousing and combative speech like he delivered Thursday night plays well to his constituency in Ohio and elsewhere. If the economy is truly rebounding, that needs to be his theme nationally.

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