Will be constantly updated. I just need to lay this out, and also, stop making it like a mock draft.

1. Luka Doncic - Proven triple threat wing/team defender with NBA level minutes and games per year. His upside is entirely based on shooting, but that level of IQ, vision, ball-handling, shooting at 6'7"+ is a premium, and he could still be stronger. Would play him at PG where he has absolute size advantage in the way that Ben Simmons is right now, and neutralizes any effect that Lonzo Ball or DeJounte Murray could do to him defensively. 6'8" Jalen Brunson goes far.
2. Jaren Jackson Jr. - My favorite big in the draft. High impact role player because he's not a typical shot creator, but over 40% behind the arc, has shown straight line drive/kick abilities, finishes around the rim, rebounding, rate, elite defender interior, perimeter, switches, team. Like having a Clint Capela that can make reads, drive and kick, and create 5-and-out offense. Switchable defensively. TO prone. Foul prone. VERY young. Outward shot, but most people ignore the mechanics because the results are there. Poor man's Anthony Davis; doesn't have the fluidity on offense yet. Absolutely has the defensive motor, IQ, timing, etc.
3. Trae Young - Next level should be easier for him. Needs strength to help with some distances. Passing is his best skill, not shooting. One of the elite ball-handlers in the draft. Super shifty. Worst case Bibby. Best case, quicker Nash without as much development time and quicker trigger.
4. DeAndre Ayton - If Alonzo Mourning was Shaq's size, but had issues defending PnR. Increased motor tremendously compared to HS. Runs the floor. Strong swat numbers by percentage. Elite DReb%, despite very weak Arizona perimeter defense. Worst case, longer/athletic Vucevic. Average case, Longer/athletic Al Horford. Best case, what healthy Embiid could be without the post shot diversity, but better perimeter diversity.
7. Wendell Carter Jr - A solid big capable of midrange, finishing in the paint, interior defense, rebounding. Underrated vision/passing. That's what keeps him on the floor for death lineups. Advanced Horford skill by age. Best case, KAT with better defensive IQ, more consistent motor. Ahead of Bamba because he can make reads/passes. IQ shows on both ends of the floor.
8. Mo Bamba - May drop him down because he's still getting away on pure length. Could have better impact than Rudy Gobert, easily has better athleticism than Gobert by age. Should be on the Team USA volleyball team. Absolute defensive gravity. Personally think he reads the floor slowly on both ends. Already changed form and showed some success in uncontested practice. Concerned by how well he reads the floor and still gets by on his length/vert combination. When focused, can move his feet, but wavering motor.
5. Marvin Bagley - Shawn Kemp/Amare Stoudemire - Honestly, difficult to get a strong feel because he's getting by on pure raw talent of twitch, motor, and length. Switch defense? Shooting from midrange? Big upside guy. Puts up big numbers on limited touch time with the basketball. That goes far. Low % steal rate and block rate considering his motor/twitch levels. Average IQ. Expandable shot.

6. Michael Porter Jr - A 3-point shooting Blake Griffin type is the stuff of nightmares. Back injury concerns hurt all NBA players, hurts his stock. No idea how it affects his athleticism. Defense? You've got jokes. When healthy, was considered #1 in early mocks. Dominated 1 v 1 workouts vs the rest of Team USA in scrimmages. Concern that he's not as physical offensively setting screens and playing big, settles for the shot often, but was incredibly accurate with it and VERY explosive around the hoop. SF straight line handle.

9. Mikal Bridges - 3 and D wing that showed hints of shot creation. Earlier seasons at Villanova, excelled very well in tertiary scoring roles and high level motor defense. Some ball-handling concerns, but had 3 of 5 elite physical tools defensively: IQ, motor, wingspan. A 3rd to 5th option on offense, but was mindblowingly efficient for 'Nova 2 years ago in that role, 70% 2-point, 39% 3-point. As the #2 guy, still 60%FG, bumped 44% 3pt and still hit a few even when off-balance. Like Bagley, did a lot of things off-ball first before becoming more of an on-ball player for Nova this season. High release point.
10. Miles Bridges - Tweener forward that is a touch short on size at PF. Elite motor, 3pt shot, drive/kick ability, rebounding. Slimmed down even more to play 3, but didn't look as comfortable in his body compared to freshman year, where he seemed much more explosive and consistent with his shot. All of the small ball lineups have this guy, because he stretches the floor, moves the ball, rebounds, and upside for switch D.

11. Jontay Porter - May have him higher. Doesn't necessarily fit the prototype of NBA athleticism, but he's not Jokic level. Just, a strong, solid athlete. Plays the position like a wing; jumpshot trigger, reading the floor, reading the defense in general, rebounding, defensive position. Best case scenario, current Marc Gasol but with post base. These skills are rare at 5, and that raises the triple threat skill value. Better projectable shot than SGA, Zhaire, Sexton, Brown.

Quote:

The Core Wing Group
15. Troy Brown - What Evan Turner was supposed to be. 6'7" PG in high school, average athlete, but all functional athleticism. Some motor on defense. Vision/passing in spades. Strong. Ball mover. Average shot release, but doesn't hesitate. Attacks. Of the core wings, best PG instincts, vision, passing.

18. Kevin Huerter - Klay lite, 71.2% at rim, 20.5% FGA at rim, but abnormally high (like top 1%) 51.5% of shots at the rim are assisted (indicator of off-ball movement?). But dude can shoot all 3 levels efficiently, but do not expect high level finishing at the rim; standard finisher, not tremendous dexterity/creativity/vert/athleticism to compensate. Makes high level reads. Functional handle. Steal and block rates do not reflect motor and effort defensively against wings. Of the core wings, best shooter

17. De'Anthony Melton - Has the natural tools to be a top tier NBA defender. Just really good at being light on his feet, while being explosive on the floor to steal or off the floor to block shots. Grab and go guard. Has a clue for passing, already working on his shot. LA local. Motor. Worst case Tony Allen. Of the core wings, elite defensive ability. Projectable in terms of switchability and creating events with steal/swats, man-defense.

12. Zhaire Smith - Shawn Marion with less length but MUCH MUCH better 3pt shot (even with the hitch) and MUCH better passer. Ball-handling issues. 90% of the Matrix with more strength. Would really excel next to 1 or 2 franchise players that draw defensive attention. Like Bagley and Mikal Bridges of prior years, heavily effective off-ball. Easily the most physical player of the 3 guys, setting screens, attacking the glass, playing defense.

13. SGA - Like a triple threat Shaun Livingston at DAR pace. That's a lottery pick. Don't have strong feel for his game. Elite size PG with feel and high frequency pull up shots. Not a physical player at all. Gets eaten up by screens. High deflection rate. Anticipatory on defense. Takes an extra second to make reads in PnR, but sees the full floor with it. Surprisingly high volume of shots at the rim; good dexterity and footwork. Deceptive, but advanced handle.
14. Collin Sexton - May continue to drop him. Fiery competitor is his best quality. Heavy attack guard but has strength to boot. Not the defensive motor that Terry Rozier has.

16. Chandler Hutchison - Should be higher but I don't mind if he slips. Body control, Eurostep, finish either hand, soft shot. Easy movement on jumper, but more of a C&S guy. Haven't really seen him step into a jumper or hop step. Solid defender. Streaky shooter. Change of direction into straight line drive. Long strides with good athleticism. Drive/kick ability. Worst case is Dan Majerle. Best case is, the guy that Danny Granger was supposed to be. Of the core wings, best slasher, finisher, shot diversity around the hoop.

20. Lonnie Walker - 3 and D. Tremendous body control and explosiveness. Change of direction into straight line drive. Compact form and great height on jumpshot.

21. Robert Williams - May potentially drop him more. Had a season like a great music artists sophomore album. Defensive IQ issues. Decline in mid-range game. Shot 40% from mid-range, but actual range is 12'. Reminds me of what DeAndre Jordan used to be as a college player, right down to the wavering motor and defensive IQ issues.

Basically core guys I'm not a fan of because of their ball-handling. Simons has showed Iso ball-handling at HS, but footage is so limited. Walker is a 3 in a 2 body but with explosiveness. Okogie is a 3 in a 2 body but with wingspan.

33. Melvin Frazier - A 1/2 step behind hoop IQ/reads, but elite 3 and D player otherwise. Should be ahead of the curve considering age. Can still develop because he has physical tools to compensate, wingspan, vert, explosiveness, quickness, strength, etc. 3 in a 2 body. Played PF for Tulane.
Best suited for versatile lineups. Wrecks Shake Milton defensively. Can he play 4/3 next level?

30. Josh Okogie 3 in a 2 body. Force issues with splitting defenses leading to TO. Low vert height from mid to long range, shot affected easily. Misses badly. Limited shot different, shots at diagonals or straight. Rarely at corners, near paint. Playmaking mentality, but needs to sort out shooting even when uncontested. Accurate short distance passing. Plays outside context of his talent as a #1.

31. Donte Divincenzo - Combo guard that can successfully run an offense. Sees full width of court. Motor on defense. Dynamic shooter. Of the Combo Guard group, most natural PG skills

Jevon Carter - The guy GSW should draft. Complements the team and brings something to the floor outside of 3-point shooting.

Bruno Fernando - Listed at 6'10" (likely in shoes) with 7'4" wingspan from SI and other sites. Laterally quick defensively. Head on a swivel defensively. Motor. Motor. Motor. Goes for deep seal without tremendous post base. Looks for opponent on box out situations repeatedly. Constantly moving between man-defense and help-defense. Not the elite level athlete that WCS was out of Kentucky, but carries more strength instead of that elite lateral quicks. Issues: Kuzma-hands. Signs of perimeter range indicated with 74% FT w 47%FTr. Big bounce around the hoop. Expected PnR dive man with developing mid-range, but premiere defensive ability coinciding with high rebound rates.

24. Mitchell Robinson - Elite physical tools make him a PnR candidate with rim protection archetype. Best to play with veterans that hide other weaknesses and can set him up well. Concerned he's the Ed Davis with physical tools, when you want him to be Clint Capela. Worst case, Hassan Whiteside. Reported intangibles issues by Dean Demakis. Already age 20.

Bruce Brown - I prefer to think last year was just a down year for him and he's still a 1st round combo guard. Football background reflects highly of defensive motor/read abilities. Rangey on both ends of the floor. Close outs, shot contests, bothers shots in the paint on team rotation. Plays like Russell Westbrook on offense, but more comfortable 3-point shot. Steal at this pick

29. Shamorie Ponds - I still see the whiff of NVE in his game. NY guard. Handles. But creates space with functionality to get shots off. Low unassisted rates indicate low shooting percentages, not necessarily shot accuracy or shot selection. Shifty. Negative defender. Takes A LOT of contested shots. Not a sharp passer. Issues against length. Of the core PG group, Best Iso perimeter shot creator.

Gary Clark - Luc M'bah A Moute. Age 23. Passes basic analytic shooting numbers that indicate touch, shot selection, decision-making. 60% 2-point. 43.5% 3pt. on low volume. Doesn't have the height or reach of A Moute; listed at 6'7.5" with a 6'10" WS. Team switch defender. Far more natural offensive aggression over Luc. Physical in the paint. Likes to operate in painted area, whether it's a post shot, rebounding, setting screens. Motor in spades. Unique in that he's a 5 that can play hypothetical 4/3 because of his perimeter shot, low TOs, defensive switchability, motor. Plays bigger than his size; 22% DReb, 17% TReb, 3%Stl, 5% Blk. 2:1 A/TO ratio, shockingly low 8.7% TO rate. Plays well within his abilities. Limited upside. Needs to be a switchable defender at 4/3, or ideally 5/3 but can be a highly valuable player to close games or specialized lineups. Would excel next to franchise players that draw heavy perimeter attention. Solid athlete. 2nd round to UFA.

PJ Washington - Combo forward, but a future 4. 3pt. range. Much stronger than his frame suggests. Should go back to school for one year, but he can play in versatile lineups. 7'3" wingspan, 240. Wouldn't be surprised if he plays stretch 5. Has the rebounding, swat abilities to do so.

Jarred Vanderbilt - Laker version Lamar Odom clone. Odom had the better shot by age, but Vanderbilt is WAY ahead when it comes to drive and kick. John Wall-like body movements/ball-handling; decisive in-out dribble, change of direction. Good explosiveness to the hoop. High rate hitting bigs in the paint. Should stay in Kentucky, but draft and stash?

Bruce Brown - I prefer to think last year was just a down year for him and he's still a 1st round combo guard. Football background reflects highly of defensive motor/read abilities. Rangey on both ends of the floor. Close outs, shot contests, bothers shots in the paint on team rotation. Plays like Russell Westbrook on offense, but more comfortable 3-point shot. Steal at this pick

Ajdin Penova - Like watching Dario Saric with insane block rate, but not Saric's elite passing around draft time. Average athlete, but can develop into a fine player next level.

Grayson Allen - Oh hell no.

Jalen Hudson - Wing shooter. Provides no other skills except Catch and Shoot and Pull up J. Straight line drive. Good NBA level athlete, some pop in transition. Good form, high release. Aside from Ast%, compares analytically to Allen Crabbe, who needed several years before becoming a $10mil to $15mil. NBA player based on shooting alone. Laker workout

Devonte Graham - Backup PG upside but had his best role during his frosh year at Kansas. Showed to be a ball-hawk at defensive PG but was also hitting clutch shots then. Unusually high assists, speaks to Mykhailiuk and Newman as shooters and two lob targets in Azubuike and Vick. Legit wouldn't be mad in the 2nd round as a pick, but should be seen as a 1st if it were an average draft.

Dzanan Musa - Undisciplined gunner. Was tweeted his age may not be correct. Equal wingspan to height. Only 36% from 3 last season, 30% before hand. Fluid athlete, not explosive finisher. High end ball-handler at wing. If I were to miss on a guy, it's him. Looks good on tape at times, but doesn't reflect in advanced numbers or box score. Frail. Best case, ball-handling Belinelli?

Ethan Happ - I don't know what to do with this guy. It's like if you gave Mark Madsen (actually Madsen had a stronger two-foot vert) some Jokic skills and premium footwork, you get Happ. Had all of the defensive attention and still shot 54% 2-point. Unfortunately also shot 54%FT. Still, 33% assist rate, 3% stl rate, 3.8% block rate, 24% DReb rate are usually just insanely strong indicators for a successful NBA career. Laker workout

Malik Newman - If Jordan Clarkson was shorter. Sees half the court. His best role that's comfortable for him is to turn into a microwave scorer, but things really open up if he makes simple reads.
Hamadou Diallo - Elite athlete but IQ makes it rarely functional. He does have a route to the NBA, but I always say, can't scout the brain. It's up to him to take what's learned and apply it to an NBA court.

Trevon Duval - I have zero believe in his jumpshot.

Justin Jackson

Gary Trent Jr - He can shoot, I guess.

S. Mykhailiuk - Shooter has shown more aggression attacking with international play. If he plays like he's from Kansas, he's a 2nd. If he plays like he's in a FIBA tournament, he's a 1st rounder and would give hints of comparisons to Divincenzo.

Vince Edwards - Wing player docked down by age. Very average for this draft class with 3-and-D role. Good athlete.

Moritz Wagner - 1 NBA skill is bigman shooting. May end up in the league because he has requisite strength. Slow feet. Soft interior defense with verticality.

Tony Carr (DNL) - I'm not convinced at all, even if he's a 6'5" PG. Really has to show more than just hitting contested shots over weaker competition. Gets by on high release point and size to make contested shots instead of Marcus Thornton, consistently making shots over bigger defenders, or Khris Middleton in terms of accuracy and athleticism.

1. Doncic
2. Bamba - his coach alluded to conditioning issues... extremely mobile in a stance with Gobert's length. jumper fixed and coming
T2. Young
4. JJJ - not completely sold his mechanics are legit.
-----
5. Bagley - project because he's skinny. Skinny combined with no length means he's going to get stonewalled finishing - like Randle did when he didn't have this years bounce. Randle needs bounce+strength to finish, Bagley needs a semblance of strength....
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6. Ayton - anyone in this here tier could be better bcuz they can't be played off the court like a plodding post-up Center..
7. MPJ - not sure if a mix of 3rd year Wiggins/Jabari. Or PF Tatum
8. Mikal Bridges
---- Solid starters
9. Sexton - dog in him
10. Carter Jr.
11. Jontay Porter - not a great athlete but has a great base that will help him finish. shooting/passing
12. Huerter - Klay-lite with ball handling and combo guard passing IQ
13. Hutchinson - please be a Laker. His jumper has a chance to turn great, needs to get it more concise like Tobias'.He has near 20ppg potential at the next level.
14. Miles Bridges - low jumper form, no length, 6'6.5"....can't put him higher
15. Knox - project. Might be able to shoot off the dribble from all areas in a few years(but Hutchinson is very close to this now). Knox could be a Kuzma spitting image later
----good chance to be starters
16. Walker - creator upside. 6'5 w/ 6'10.5ws
17. Robinson - project. freaaak athlete at 7foot
https://twitter.com/DXContent/status/969625351289745409
---- Fringe starters
18. Troy Brown - shot form is getting better. really like his handle and instincts. not convinced he's the athlete (without abv avg shot)needed to lock solid starter potential though
19. Musa - Nice shooting form and can make shots on the move, legit good handler for a SF, plays with an edge and confidence, 6'9, decent leaper and quicks. 18 years old most likely
20. Evans - good across the board including ball handling. legit 3 position defender. Looks taller/better reach than Josh Hart
21. Okogie - good shooter, form reminds me of Wesley Mathews. 7' wingspan. athlete. Watch Duke highlights
22.Melton - shooting project improving. best defender here, probably great standing reach
23. Frazier - project. gotta give a couple years to judge, jumper is far away, terrible form. Lotto upside
24. Okobo - my backup PG pick. please.
------- a lot of good bench prospects
25.Williams - doesn't project to be abv average defensively or rebounding although solid tools
26. Gary Trent Jr. - quietly a candidate for best shooter in the draft, hit off the dribble 3s at combine. good body/height/ws .40inch vert
27. Tony Carr - originally turned off by the low shot-pocket but he does release and follow-through high (that combo leads to a rainbow from NBA range dunno if he'll change that). But man, some of the most skilled highlights around. SG length 6'4.5 PG
28. Divencnzo - most energy in the draft w/ Hield shooting? PG length 6'4.5
29. Simons - way better athlete than SGA, better shot making potential. super skinny young project 4 years away
30. Kurucs - 6'9 PF length, shot, some dribble+pass, good feet.. ..
T30. Diop - good length for a PF, i can believe in his shooting mechanics. 3/D PF
------
32. Brunson
33.Kevin Hervey - can shoot it , stroke looks real good. Has had an ACL in both knees so still not fully 100% laterally. Decent off dribble even shooting. Long SF/PF
34. Milton - won't be a primary handler that's for sure. 3s with some flow-creation mixed in
35. Ponds
36. Zhaire Smith - 2part jumper is not close to nba quick-ready.. project, maybe he proves me wrong in 5 years and is a smaller Marion
37.. Khyri Thomas - if a coach can bring the dog out of him, he has potential to be a top 25 player in the draft. Seen his jumper get blocked a few times and I'm turned off
38. J. Carter not to be confused with Jay Z
39. Trier - I'm looking for something of a Clarkson who can shoot, maybe he's it, although I have Trent Jr as that guy but bigger than Clarkson
40. SGA - average athlete. very skinny.
41 Holiday - good length for 6'1
42. Edwards - looks tiny(tiny reach) but a very good athlete, shot maker, shooter
43. Fernando - Like him, 1st round upside. Iffy finishing. Mediocre lob target being barely 6'10. Quick double-jumper, active, good feet. Developing jumper. Love as our 2nd round pick
44. Diallo - has upside, jumper isn't broken.. could take same path as Shumpert . Measurments of a solid SF
45. Shamet - I'm out on the shooting form after seeing the combine struggle
46. sviatoslav mykhailiuk - Joe Harris with some handle. 36" vert
47. Bonga - jumper is years away. 6'9 slasher/creator
48. Jerome Robinson - skilled and tall enough to be a steal, length not good.
49. Bruce Brown - Mike your SG-Westbrookish comp for his ideal play-style isn't bad. If he had better jumper form I'd have him 1stR

Undrafted:
Malik Pope - I want to see the handling skills come out in the Gleague
Macdaniels - Young M.Pope maybe he develops better
Tim Bond - Will Barton vibes even the shooting form
Brandon Sampson - shooter and deep "shot maker" from LSU

Last edited by KeepItRealOrElse on Fri May 25, 2018 3:48 am; edited 47 times in total

I wonder what the chances are Hutch drops to us..Don't see why he wouldn't kill workouts. When you're near 6'8 shoot well, dynamically in workouts, leap really well, handle well for a 3.. idk how that falls to #25 in the draft process but I can pray

I wonder what the chances are Hutch drops to us..Don't see why he wouldn't kill workouts. When you're near 6'8 shoot well, dynamically in workouts, leap really well, handle well for a 3.. idk how that falls to #25 in the draft process but I can pray

if he doesn't fall, that means someone else will. we'll get someone good._________________substance over style

I wonder what the chances are Hutch drops to us..Don't see why he wouldn't kill workouts. When you're near 6'8 shoot well, dynamically in workouts, leap really well, handle well for a 3.. idk how that falls to #25 in the draft process but I can pray

if he doesn't fall, that means someone else will. we'll get someone good.

Formulating some thoughts as we're now into May, and some of the above excellent analyses on players are helping me out. These are not rankings, just general comments. If I haven't mentioned a player, it's because I just haven't formulated enough thoughts about that guy yet. Will update this list over the next few weeks. EDIT: Have updated it a couple of times. Moved Walker and Huerter up, Zhaire Smith slightly down, and Jacob Evans from my "Guys I Like" tier to the "Guys I Don't Like" tier.

Commonly Mocked Top TierDoncic--I like how Mike and 44TL describe him, and find Mike's idea of playing him as your PG/lead ballhandler intriguing.
Trae Young--Agree with Mike that the NBA might actually be easier for him with the spacing. As long as he's not a Westbrook-style chucker and doesn't take too many bad shots (and I don't think he will), chance to be great. Lower floor than Ayton, but if he hits, he'll be more important to a team than Ayton will be, and given that I think Trae's bust potential is not that high, comfortable enough to take him over Ayton.
Ayton--While I do have some concerns about his D, I'm comfortable enough with how high his floor is to consider him an elite prospect in this class. He's not just some brute-force center who can only score around the rim. There's real skill there.
JJJ--I think he's more likely than not to hit, and he's an analytics darling. Still, not completely sold. Was Izzo holding him back?
Bamba--He's growing on me, even though I'm still not sold on him offensively. Maybe he won't have shooting range in actual games, but his shot mechanics in workouts look promising. Even though he has a twiggy base, it's far more likely than not that he can make a pretty immediate defensive impact. Lots of high-end potential, though I can see how he could bust, too.
Bagley--Pretty comfortable saying he won't be a bust, as I think his floor is reasonable. Tweener, though?
Porter Jr.--I'm going to need to hear more reports about how he works out. The back injury is worrisome. If he's completely over that though, big upside. Skill and that upside will almost certainly make him a top 8 selection even if the injury concerns persist.
Carter Jr.--I just think he does a lot of things well, and therefore has a high floor. Whenever I saw Duke games I just liked him in terms of NBA projectability.

Sexton--I really like 44TL's comments about competitiveness. Sexton looks like he could be one of those guys who becomes a strong floor leader even if he doesn't have a great jump shot, and 78% FT's and 34% from 3 aren't a death blow to his chances of having a decent perimeter shot. Much better free throw rate and FT shooter in college than Eric Bledsoe...could he be pre-knee issues Bledsoe in the NBA but with a better brain? I'd take him over the smooth SGA.
Mikal Bridges--Efficient player, just not sure how much upside he has. Still, I am all-in on Jay Wright, and so I think that his prospects come into the league with an understanding of what to do and how to play. Would be very comfortable with him in the back-half of the lottery.
Miles Bridges--I'll again ask the question: was Izzo holding him back? Also, is he a tweener as well? Lower floor than Mikal but probably a higher upside IMO.
SGA--As Paul George might say, real smooth. I was impressed with him late in the year for Kentucky. Good size, good touch on his shot, good free throw shooter. Not going to wow anyone with athleticism but that's OK; I don't think he's a Kyle Anderson type of low-level athlete. Needs to get stronger.
Jontay Porter--IQ, IQ, IQ. Can shoot it. Is very young. I mean, OK, he's not a plus athlete. That's the only reason he probably won't go in the top 10. Probably won't fall out of the top 20. An LG darling for a reason. Love him. UPDATE: NEXT YEAR, JONTAY!Walker--He's not Zhaire as an athlete, though he's certainly a plus athlete. I had him on my "Not Sold On" list before, but 44TL has convinced me otherwise, after reading his analysis and looking at some more footage. I replaced Zhaire with Walker in my mock at #10.
Huerter--Perhaps the newest LG darling. I've watched the highlight packages, so it's not hard to see why. We need shooting, dude can shoot it, dude is young, and he's not just a one-trick pony. Really like the Klay comparisons (shot form) and Ingles comparisons. Sadly, I no longer see him as being in play for us at #25; I think we would have to move up into the top 20 to get him, and I have him in my top 14 for sure.

Guys I Like/Have Good Feelings AboutHutchison--Was expecting him to have better shooting percentages (both from 3 and from the FT line) when I checked his stats, but you have to love the skill package he offers, his size, and his athleticism being what it is (pretty good for that skill level). Unlikely he lasts to #25, but maybe he slips due to being 22.
Zhaire Smith--CRAZY athleticism. Really like Mike's analogy that he would probably excel next to players that can draw defensive attention. Doesn't turn 19 until June. Pretty good size. If he can shoot it, man. Guys like this often don't get out of the lottery, but with the emphasis on shooting in today's game, he might not go in the top 14.
Holiday--Holiday. Celebrate. If I lauded Sexton for competitiveness, you've gotta give that to this kid as well. NBA pedigree. Can shoot it and he's a good athlete. Lack of size is probably the only reason he could last to our pick, and I'm guessing that he still won't. I know he got into some trouble this season at UCLA from trying to do too much, but I think that was a function of UCLA being short-handed this season. I think some of that will go away at the NBA level.
Melton--This is a gut feeling, but since it seems like his D is so legit, if he shoots it well in workouts, a chance to be a major steal for someone. Doesn't turn 20 until later this month.
Ponds--Could be a shorter, better version of Dlo, and with better athleticism. Think his 3-point shooting this year was an outlier, given how he shot it in his freshman year, given the team at St. John's this season, and given his FT percentages in both years. UPDATE: NEXT YEAR, SHAMORIE!Brunson--Good shooter from all 3 levels, savvy, IQ. Can see him playing 20-25 mins in the NBA for 10 years and handling his role fantastically. Again, I give him the Jay Wright benefit of the doubt.
Okogie--Turns 20 (if we're buying that) in September. Not a skinny 19-year-old's body, which might explain his solid rebounding numbers. 3-point shooting. 82% FT's last year with a solid FT rate in both seasons at Georgia Tech. Athletic and though he's 6'4, has the wingspan. Intriguing, although his lack of handle and my skepticism of his age are making me re-think just how much I like him.
DiVincenzo--I mistakenly thought he was being insanely overrated due to his NCAA Tournament run. Looked at the stats, and he was a very good college player at 'Nova over the past 2 seasons. Beyond the shooting, he can handle, too, and has good size. And guess what? He gets the Jay Wright bump for me.
Thomas--Highly competitive defender, good finisher, and can shoot it. Gets compared to Evans a lot as a 3-and-D type, but I'm out on Evans now after seeing the hitch in his jump shot, and Thomas is definitely a better finisher around the basket. Improved FG % and FT % all 3 years at Creighton, though he didn't get to the FT line much.
Jevon Carter--The 44TL competitive bump up! Heart of a lion, can shoot, can have Patrick Beverley-like defensive impact, and can handle. Just don't expect him to finish well in a crowd. There will surely be better prospects at #25, but he deserves to go well before we pick at #47.
Jerome Robinson--Looks like a polished scorer to me, can shoot it off the dribble, can create for teammates. Mike thinks he can be a functional NBA defender, so I'll take his word for it and blame him for my mis-evaluation if he isn't one. Elie Okobo--Perhaps he's the anti-Frank Ntilikina, as he appears to be a young European prospect who looks more advanced on offense, rather than defense. That said, he does have good length, and he looks savvy when I've seen him on tape. I can really see Utah taking him, especially if Huerter is gone.

Guys I'm on the fence about/Not sold on/Upside typesMitchell Robinson--While I'm nowhere near sold on him as a young project, the physical upside he possesses would probably be worth a shot around our pick.
Knox--Could be one of those guys that shoots it better at the NBA level than he did at Kentucky. Not convinced, though.
Troy Brown--Not convinced he can shoot it. Offers a lot of other things, though, and as young as he is, he's clearly worth gambling on at the right spot.
Shamet--The kid can obviously shoot it, but athletic defenders might be able to erase him. Worried about the lack of athleticism. Needs to find the right team IMO.
Milton--Similar concerns as with Shamet; could be a below-average athlete, but he can shoot it.
Robert Williams--Can he be a good enough defensive 5 in the NBA? Poor FT shooter.
Simons--I have no idea if he'll be good or not. As young as he is and with theoretical upside, he probably makes sense as a late 1st rounder on a 4-year deal with low guaranteed money. Project.
Trier--I'm only including him here because if you had asked me what I thought of him 2-3 months ago, I would have had him in my top 30 for sure. But the way he ended his college career really gives me pause, despite the overall high efficiency numbers in his time at Arizona. I have questions about his ability to create for himself or for teammates at the NBA level, and if he doesn't shoot it well, he's practically worthless. Still, I think he could be worth a shot if he's there at #47.

Guys I Flat-out don't likeEvans--I'm now out on him after seeing the hitch in his jump shot. Unlike a guy like Khyri Thomas, he doesn't do much else on offense, so if there's a question about his shot, what's he doing for you offensively?
Bates-Diop--Just don't see what he does translating to the pro level, much like how I saw Ivan Rabb last season. (Not that they are the same type of player.)
Alkins--I just see an NBA-ready body without NBA-level skills.
Diallo--I'd rather take a chance on him as opposed to Alkins, but I just see a piece of athletic clay, not a baller at the NBA level. At least he's younger than Alkins.
Grayson Allen--Perhaps if the NBA Draft was instead a Ted Cruz doppelganger competition.
Duval--That shot? Yikes. Not good enough elsewhere for me to consider taking him.
Metu--Does not impress me with anything, really.
Happ--I think he'll struggle with NBA athleticism. Maybe he can carve out a role since he does have some skill, but I don't see him as an NBA player, and the FT % doesn't help. UPDATE: NBA TEAMS MUST NOT HAVE LIKED HIM EITHER, BECAUSE HE RETURNED TO WISCONSIN._________________OK, no superteam, but we can still do this. Onward and upward.

Last edited by ChickenStu on Tue Jun 19, 2018 3:29 am; edited 4 times in total

Will add scouting thoughts post draft, but here's the big board the day before the draft:

1. Luka Doncic
2. Jaren Jackson, Jr.
3. Trae Young

4. Wendell Carter - I buy into his jumper, his overall feel, and his upside as a very smart, capable backline defender even as only an average rim protector. There's some sneaky KAT star upside here, though I expect he tops out closer to a "quiet" All-Star like Al Horford (offensively).

5. DeAndre Ayton - just terrible defensive awareness, but if it clicks for him on that end, he can make this projection look silly. But there's a very real possibility he's a less skilled (and lower usage) Cousins who will rack up stats but not wins on mediocre teams. Still a damn talented pick, but the type of player who has diminishing utility in the playoffs. Also not often mentioned is that he needs a lot of work as a screener, as well.

6. Mo Bamba - I'm becoming a believer that he can eventually reach Brook Lopez levels as a perimeter shooter, which when combined with his potential to be switchable-ish on defense could produce one of the rare 7-footers capable of earning big minutes in a playoff series. The 0.7:2.0 ATR (0.35) he posted, his overall mediocre feel even for a big, and some questions about his on-court motor concern me, though.

7. Marvin Bagley - the second worst defensive big to be drafted in the lottery since 2010 (see Ayton for worst), Bagley has a low floor of an empty stats tweener who kills a team's cap; basically a big man version of Andrew Wiggins. But having seen Julius Randle's utility as a small-ball center in a switch heavy scheme, Bagley's wing quickness at 6'11 gives him a window to develop into a useful switchable defender despite his horrible defensive awareness. The question will be how much strength he can add to his wiry frame to hold up at C against small-ball brutes like Julius let alone behomeths like Adams and Embiid. Combine some defensive utility with his quick twitch athleticism, non-stop motor on the glass, his nose for buckets, and an ok foundation of perimeter skills for a future center, and this projection could end up too low.

8. Miles Bridges - I question his ultimate upside since I don't see him with high usage initiator talent, but I could see him contributing more to winning long-term than Ayton, Bagley, or Porter. Even without the stocks, I think he ends up among the best 3&D wings in the draft who can switch onto smalls and bigs (though he'll give up turnaround jumpers all day in the post). Offensively he's going to abuse smaller wings on the block, he's going to be electric in transition, and he'll space the floor and attack closeouts. Basically, I think he could become a bigger, better feel Jaylen Brown with some secondary playmaking equity.

9. Zhaire Smith

10. Michael Porter - I refuse to believe Jontay Porter's brother doesn't have some passing chops. His medicals and lack of tape against college teams makes him a relative question mark to me, but it seems like there's a chance he could end up Rashard Lewis-ish if healthy. Obviously that ceiling projection would put him among the top 2-3 picks in most drafts, but back injuries are so concerning and he didn't have a chance to answer questions about his defense and overall basketball acumen, which make me skeptical of how much of a chance he really has of reaching that lofty ceiling. Lack of toughness and poor shot selection seem likely to plague him even if he regains his explosiveness post-surgery.

11. Mikal Bridges

12. Robert Williams - he would've been better off declaring last year as he gained little from playing PF in A&M's slow, two big lineups when he's a rim running center in the NBA game. Despite playing so many minutes in large lineups away from the basket, Williams rebounded (27% DRB) and swatted (12% BLK) at an upper tier level, and I love his frame, length, and athleticism for a switchable center in the Capela mold. But he played a lot in zone at A&M, so he'll need more reps defending on the perimeter, and there seem to be legitimate questions whether he has the discipline and motor to reach his high, high potential on that side of the ball. Offensively he's a dangerous lob threat with his wingspan and hops, he has an underrated feel for passing on the interior and out of the short roll, he can fly up and down the floor when engaged, and there's a glimmer of potential to score in the post on switches with his right-handed hook and a developing drop step. A lot of words for the #12 pick, but I love Williams' floor and his archetype in a PnR-centric offense/switch-heavy defense even if his ceiling may not be super high given his almost complete lack of perimeter skills (though there may be some sneaky handle). I think a team can draft him confident in his ability to be a solid to good 10-year NBA starter.

13. Kevin Huerter
14. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
15. De'Anthony Melton

16. Kevin Knox - more idea than reality, there's not much at this stage I can point to that will be a high-level NBA caliber skill from him. But he's young, a solid straight-line athlete, and he brings positional value as (theoretically) a switch-y combo-forward. I expect he'll settle in as an NBA PF who can run off screens and he flashed when attacking closeouts at Kentucky with a two dribble pull-up and a floater, but he needs to improve his handle to unlock more of his scoring potential. His overall feel and his vision seem subpar, and his defensive upside may be overblown due to that subpar feel combined with being stiff/upright, which may limit him to being a small ball frontcourt scoring specialist off the bench. But that's at least a rotation player floor to go with some upside, so the middle of the 1st round seems appropriate.

17. Collin Sexton - commonly mocked in the late lottery, I don't know how a team builds an above average league offense with Sexton as a primary option due to his subpar vision and risky decisionmaking. I also have concerns about his utility as an off-ball scorer and there are red flags on defense despite Sexton looking the part of a pesky defender with a 6'7.5 wingspan. But if he can be teamed up with a larger primary initiator like Simmons, Doncic, etc., there's a path forward for him to be a productive 2nd/3rd option with improvement on his C&S jumper (he has a bit of a flat arc, trebuchet looking shot that will need work, but added strength should help) and movement away from the ball. His reputed work ethic, rapid improvement in high school, and his on-court relentlessness may give him a better chance of developing into that lottery pick some think he is.

Honorary Laker: Jontay Porter - the youngest player in the draft, I'd bet on Porter's quickness and explosiveness improving as he physically matures and drops the baby fat. I think he's got more of a role-player than star mentality (probably from growing up balling with MPJ), but offensively I see Kevin Love upside as a peak projection. Defensively Porter's high BBIQ, underrated agility, quick hands, and solid 9'1 standing reach give him the chance to be a very capable team defender despite otherwise mediocre physical tools for a backline defender.

Last edited by Baron Von Humongous on Wed Jun 20, 2018 1:17 pm; edited 30 times in total

I don't expect this to be conventional. The idea of Best Player Available changes by team, and each team had different trainers, and training affects development and overall upside, so this won't be a fit-specific board. This will sway more heavily towards projected mid-1st to mid-2nd "typical" picks because I'm specifically focused on where the Lakers draft at #25, #39, and #47.
And no, I didn't put Michael Porter Jr. here. That'll be later.

1. JJJ - I just believe in the ball-handling, short-range passing, and shot, even if it's ugly. He's farther ahead than all of the 4/5 types in the lottery when it comes to perimeter skill. But defensively, he's even better.
2. Luka Doncic - 6'8" initiators are a rare breed, and the FIBA 3pt line isn't that far from the NBA 3pt line. Even if his upside were say, Gordon Hayward, he's still way ahead of the curve by age 19. Who remembers Hayward as the 6'8" 210lb. kid from Butler with a mid 30% 3pt and none of Doncic's passing and vision by age? I do.
3. Trae Young - Oklahoma St had a bunch of talent leave and Trae Young came in and improved it, despite being in a poor system. There were times he would stand past 30 feet, and the other teammates didn't know how to create on a 4 on 4 with extra space. From 248th best offense to 71st. Yeah, he's not expected to be a great defender, but at PG, who is? He's already played Westbrook type USG at age 19, gained 10lbs in muscle. I think his shooting gets better from the get-go.
4. Mo Bamba - The hoop IQ hasn't kicked in, but it will eventually. I do have concerns about health for bigs, generally speaking, but he's working with Drew Hanlen and developing Embiid's mid-post face up game. Come on. He's also an arguable #1 pick too. Just, initiators control the game, hence Doncic and Young are ahead.
5. De'Andre Ayton - I just think that weakside shotblocking stuff gets fixed in a few years. Is there a playoff lottery team? Nope. They can wait for it to develop. Oddly enough, the perimeter switchability, he's good at, and that's MORE difficult to fix.

6. Marvin Bagley - Like, who doesn't want a super twitchy big with a straight line drive and a hint of range, but basically scores with limited touches because of his insane offensive rebounding rate? In a world where PPP is super important, Bagley gets you EXTRA possessions.
7. Wendell Carter Jr. - He's Al Horford in Derrick Favors current athleticism. The perimeter skills on both ends of the floor, plus hoop IQ, and he's already in insane basketball shape. He'll need refinement with lateral quickness but really, almost all the lottery bigs do.
8. Miles Bridges - There's a chance he outplays his draft position. A bit small for PF, but can make up for it with absolute power forward strength and explosiveness. Switchable combo PF/SF and dare I say, C against small lineups. You can play him in guard-like playtypes as the wing and he can shoot incredibly efficiently. Frankly, I think he should add some more weight back after dropping down so drastically from freshman to sophomore year. He didn't swat like he did during his frosh year.
9. Mikal Bridges - The, you know what you're getting pick. Everyone needs a wing, especially one that can shoot on the move. Average perimeter defender but great team defender. Won't be a ball-stopper because, he doesn't really utlize the dribble much. Uber 3-and-D.
10. Lonnie Walker - It's possible he'll outplay this draft position too. The athleticism and length are there, but he's not a combo guard initiator like Mitchell. Compact, easy jumpshot. Tremendous athleticism on both ends of the floor. Has shown flashes of advanced dribbling to create separation.

Player 11
Sexton, Collin - Avg perimeter shooter, strong PG, but I trust super competitive guys.
Player 12
Smith, Zhaire - Difficult to get a fix on. Haven't seen the improved ball-handling and shot v competition. Instinctual defender and that goes FAR, even if he is undersized for his protected position. Arguably best switchable defender and yet still getting by on instincts over skill set.
Player 13
Brown, Troy - Point guard vision and passing, hard to develop. Foundation of triple threat skills, hard to develop. Athleticism? Apparently didn't need much of it to be an effective NCAA player. But, that 3-point shot has been changed already. Once it clicks in the NBA, it opens up his game even more. Potential 1-4 switch defender too. ++
Player 14
Huerter, Kevin - Underrated 3-level scorer. Incredibly accuracy with floater game, but tremendous ability to run PnR and make passes on very narrow windows. Shot gravity opens attack lanes. Motor on defense.
Player 15
Okobo, Elie - Change of pace PG that can shoot with motion. Hesitation dribble in PnR buys him all the time for decision-making, but RARELY changes direction on drives. Looks FAR too hard for the roll-man vs. corners; decision-making issues with shot vs. getting to teammates, but teammates will appreciate that he's looking for them.

Player 16
Robinson, Jerome - Those high on him will think Devin Booker if he got the playtypes in Kentucky. Played from a 4 to 9 to 19 win ACC team, so shows perseverance, and that goes FAR for me. Questions about defense are there, but I think he's a strong #3 offensive option with underrated playmaking abilities. Just force him to pass off the dribble to create TOs.
Player 17
Williams, Robert - Here only for the physical tools. Almost every bit the athlete that Mitchell Robinson is overall because he actually has strength. Motor issues? Where'd the mid-range shot go? He could be SO good, but motor is a big thing for me.
Player 18
Hutchison, Chandler - One of my favorites for the Lakers when I did a podcast for LO awhile back. Trains under Lillard's NCAA trainer. NBA high level elite finisher, don't let the percentages fool you. Finishes Eurostep, body control, correct foot or goofy foot, and "drops" the ball on the rim or very low velocity shot off the glass. Short range playmaker, reminds me of Danny Granger, but without the block/steal rates or the polished 3-point shot. But if that shot comes around.... well, Granger was once a 27ppg guy before injuries.
Player 19
Melton, De'Anthony - Could be higher. Marcus Smart at SG. Plays defense like a safety. Mirrors guys on defense. Marcus Smart had the 5 best defensive tools (Motor, IQ, length, post base (strength), quickness), but Melton trades the strength for crazy reflexes.
Player 20
Gilgeous-Alexander, Shai - I don't trust the jumpshot. Weird/ slow pace PG, but at that size, basically if he gets over the jumpshot hump on offense, he could be a killer. Just look how effective Livingston is, and he rarely shoots outside 16'. He's not exactly fast either.

Player 21
Holiday, Aaron - One of the deadliest shooters in SG playtypes. Motor on defense. NBA genes usually mean long career.
Player 22
Brunson, Jalen - Arguably the deadliest shooter at the NCAA level. Can't argue that he wasn't the #1 or #2 option for 'Nova, just ran a team system. Why this far down? I don't know if he carries that shot accuracy into the L, or even gets those shots off. If he does, we should be considering lottery. Doesn't matter how small or slow. Every bit a high end point guard passer with great vision across the floor.
Player 23
Carter, Jevon - Any guy that gets agents to get his clients to withdraw from workouts because their facing Jevon Carter, should technically make Carter a lottery pick. Getting Marcus Smart with a better shot and without the wingspan here.
Player 24
Brown, Bruce - People point out his shot, but I think last season was an anomaly. Physical combo guard, better passer than expected. Shows his football like-background when he attacks the paint and uses vision. That shot HAS to come around.
Player 25
Simons, Anfernee - There haven't been that many short PG/SG high school guards that are successful, but I don't recall Lou Williams having that kind of strength/athleticism or Monta being THAT good off the dribble, that young.

Player 26
DiVincenzo, Donte - Easy shot. High motor both ends. Not a sexy comparison but he's Tyler Johnson with a 5% higher TO rate. But that kind of guy can finish games in the playoffs/Finals because they'll be a net positive.
Player 27
Frazier, Melvin - Reminds me of Travis Outlaw athletically, but MUCH MUCH better defensive motor, clue for passing, and a whiff of a jumpshot. Even if he's Andre Roberson, that's such a big plus on defense that he's a steal at this pick. You can actually get rim protection from wing positions, or just flat out play him at PF while he tries to do things off-ball. Seems like a player that played as a big in HS and took awhile to develop guard skills later.
Player 28
Okogie, Josh - Enigmatic player to me. Legit blk/steal rates, big upper body, underrated lateral movement and directional quickness. Big vert doesn't always show, even in the open floor. Shot is lower than it should be, very easily contested. If he plays 3 and D, he's a big + for switchability on defense, 3pt accuracy, and FTr. If he plays a bigger role, I think he'll be really TO prone. I really don't trust the handle yet.
Player 29
Evans, Jacob - Because you need a 3 and D wing and he transformed his body to make himself an NBA player. He's a VERY high bar for what an "average" 3 and D wing should look like. Really underrated vision/passing ability, but just an unusually attacker at the hoop.
Player 30
Shamet, Landry - Again, one of the deadliest NCAA shooters. Can he shoot on the move? Can he get the shot off against contests? If he can, he's a steal. Unusually narrow frame reflects in 6'7"+ ish wingspan, but HIGH 8'6" standing reach, usually reflected with guys of roughly 6'10" wingspans.

Kevin Knox - Guys who have no motor or weird motors turn #3 Okafor into out of the league (he's not the only center that can't defend in space ya know) or Perry Jones out of the league, instead of being Kevin Durant. Definition of a workout warrior. He's also the guy that could burn this list up.
Dzanan Musa
Keita Bates Diop – Warmed up to him as a bench 3 and D prospect at 4.
Shake Milton
Michael Porter Jr

Gary Trent
Jarred Vanderbilt
Mitchell Robinson
Isaac Bonga – Bonga, Vanderbilt, Penova, and Pinson are the same mold, just with different size/athletic traits. Vanderbilt has the best motor. Bonga has the best experience, Penova has the most length, Pinson just needs to get stronger and develop a J.
Alize Johnson
Wenyen Gabriel

Omari Spellman – The track record, off the top of my head, of big dudes keeping their weight down, isn’t great, and I like Spellman
Vince Edwards
Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk – Edwards has the 7’ wingspan. Mykhailiuk, does not.
Trevon Bluiett
Kostas Antetokounmpo

Ray Spaulding – Legit could make the league on stock % and motor.
Hamadou Diallo
Dakota Matthias – Mykhailiuk if he was 6’4”
Jaylen Adams
Tony Carr – I’d rather think of him as Hersey Hawkins and not watch him play PG.

Devon Hall
Trevon Duval – His HS tape is so much better, but there’s a weird gap with his vision. NBA floor may help a bit
George King
Issuf Sanon
Rawle Alkins – Oh look it’s Ruben Patterson, with a 3-point shot and nothing in the paint.

Deng Adel
Brandon McCoy – He’s a 1st rounder in the late 90s into the 00s. It’s like watching a muscular Jelani McCoy but with better touch and engagement.
Thomas Welsh – I mean, Michael Doleac made the league, right?
JP Macura – If Bob Sura was 20lbs. lighter, but somehow more fiery.
Joel Berry – Would NOT be surprised if he made a squad. Savvvvvvvvy.