April 10, 2009

An IMF we can all love?

The IMF was on the verge of irrelevance just a few months ago, running out of resources as well as raison d'etre, and downsizing. Now its resources have been tripled and it has been given key responsibilities in halting the slide of the world economy into depression.

My newest Project Syndicate column argues that there is much to like in the "new" IMF under Dominique Strauss-Kahn's leadership. But the IMF will need organizational changes (in addition to developing countries getting greater voting power) if it is to become an institution that we can all love:

The greatest risk is that [the IMF] will once again over-reach and over-play its hand. That is what happened in the second half of the 1990’s, as the IMF began to preach capital-account liberalization, applied over-stringent fiscal remedies during the Asian financial crisis, and single-handedly tried to reshape Asian economies. The institution has since acknowledged its errors in all these areas. But it remains to be seen if the lessons have been fully internalized, and whether we will have a kinder, gentler IMF in lieu of a rigid, doctrinaire one.

One encouraging fact is that developing countries will almost certainly get a larger say in how the Fund is run. This will ensure that poorer nations’ views receive a more sympathetic hearing in the future.

But simply giving developing nations greater voting power will make little difference if the IMF’s organizational culture is not changed as well. The Fund is staffed by a large number of smart economists, who lack much connection to (and appreciation for) the institutional realities of the countries on which they work. Their professional expertise is validated by the quality of their advanced degrees, rather than by their achievements in practical policymaking. This breeds arrogance and a sense of smug superiority over their counterparts – policymakers who must balance multiple, complicated agendas.

Countering this will require proactive efforts by the IMF’s top leadership in recruitment, staffing, and promotion. One option would be to increase substantially the number of mid-career recruits with actual practical experience in developing countries. This would make the IMF staff more cognizant of the value of local knowledge relative to theoretical expertise.

Another strategy would be to relocate some of the staff, including those in functional departments, to “regional offices” in the field. This move would likely face considerable resistance from staff who have gotten used to the perks of Washington, DC. But there is no better way to appreciate the role of context than to live in it. The World Bank, which engaged in a similar decentralization a while back, has become better at serving its clients as a result (without facing difficulties in recruiting top talent).

This is an important moment for the IMF. The international community is putting great store in the Fund’s judgment and performance. The Fund will require internal reforms to earn that trust fully.

to combat the global economic crisis are beginning to show results, state media Saturday quoted Premier Wen
Jiabao as saying, ahead of first quarter results due next week.

"The economic indicators for the first quarter will be published next week but I can tell you that the measures we have taken are beginning to show their first results," Wen said at a meeting with the Chinese community in Thailand, according to the China News Agency.

In a video recording of Wen's address, released on the website of Hong Kong's Phoenix TV, Wen said that investment flows and demand had increased. He did not give precise figures.

"The difficult situation that some sectors and businesses were in is beginning to change... credits and loans are increasing rapidly," he added.

"The economic situation is starting to change in a positive way, the situation is better than we had expected."

Chinese authorities in November unveiled an unprecedented four trillion yuan (455-billion-dollar) stimulus package to combat the crisis.

to combat the global economic crisis are beginning to show results, state media Saturday quoted Premier Wen
Jiabao as saying, ahead of first quarter results due next week.

"The economic indicators for the first quarter will be published next week but I can tell you that the measures we have taken are beginning to show their first results," Wen said at a meeting with the Chinese community in Thailand, according to the China News Agency.

In a video recording of Wen's address, released on the website of Hong Kong's Phoenix TV, Wen said that investment flows and demand had increased. He did not give precise figures.

"The difficult situation that some sectors and businesses were in is beginning to change... credits and loans are increasing rapidly," he added.

"The economic situation is starting to change in a positive way, the situation is better than we had expected."

Chinese authorities in November unveiled an unprecedented four trillion yuan (455-billion-dollar) stimulus package to combat the crisis.

German industrial production has suffered its biggest annual fall since the country's reunification in 1990, leading a slump across the eurozone as manufacturers bear the brunt of the recession.

Output fell by 23.2% in February from a year ago, following an annual decline of 21.4% in January, according to figures from the economy ministry.

From Greece to Finland, production fell in countries across the 16-member euro area and showed little sign of picking up any time soon, dealing a blow to recovery hopes. Italy's output fell by 20.7% – its steepest drop since the statistics began in 1990. It has been in recession since spring last year.

The figures followed hints from the European Central Bank president, Jean-Claude Trichet, that eurozone rates could be cut from 1.25% to 1% in May.

German production fell by 2.9% from a month ago – the sixth month of declines – following January's 6.1% slump. The recent collapse in orders points to further weakness in coming months, the economy ministry said.

The German economy, the biggest in Europe, contracted by 2.1% in the last three months of last year – its worst quarter since reunification. The industrial figures suggest an even sharper decline in the first three months of this year.

I always thought that Stiglitz and Rodrik were exaggerating, about how disconnected from reality IMF economists are. Now I have an international Micro economics and Finance prof whose only other job was an IMF economist and I'm quite appalled by some of her views.

Madrid's financial district has lost its shine. Near the iconic Puerta de Europa Towers in the northern part of the city, For Sale signs adorn newly completed office blocks while cranes sit motionless next to half-finished construction projects. In a local restaurant that tailors to the once-bustling lunch crowd, 31-year-old waiter Manuel Gutiérrez can't remember business ever being so slow: "No one expected the (economic) crisis to last this long," he says.

An abandoned construction site in the Spanish coastal town of Almunecar.
The recession may have taken some Spaniards by surprise, but its consequences will be felt for many years. After posting average annual gross domestic product growth of 3 percent over the past decade, Spain's economy is now expected to contract by around 3 percent this year. Unemployment already stands at 16 percent -- the worst in the European Union-and many economists reckon the level could hit 20 percent by 2010, the highest since the early 1990s.

Paris, the most-visited city in the world, is getting clobbered by a sharp downturn in global travel. International passenger arrivals at the city's two airports were down 8.1 percent year-on-year in February, and hotel occupancy rates dropped 10 percent. Even visits to the Eiffel Tower have fallen 7 percent from last year. (Overall, the US Commerce Dept. figures visits by Americans to Europe tumbled 7 percent last year.)

That's putting a big dent in the city's $13.2 billion-a-year hotel and restaurant business, which, along with other tourism-related activities, employs 12.1 percent of the city's population. "It's a catastrophe," says Bertrand LeCourt, president of l'Hôtellerie Familiale, a hotel owners' association.

Empty Rooms and Tables

It's not just sightseers who are staying away. Business travel held up relatively well during 2008, because many conventions and trade shows were planned well in advance. But now it's slumping, too. "February really scared us," said Gérard Cros, owner of the Sport Hotel, a 95-year-old establishment near the Bois de Vincennes that caters to business travelers. Occupancy at the hotel in February was down 10 percent from a year earlier, Cros says.

And what about all this research on the correletion of IMF lendings/conditionality and voters of countries in UN General Assembly or UN Security Council?

Doesn't it show that the problem it is not of culture of staff, but of power among nations into the IMF? Or at least, that staff may be not so incencitive to local context, but instead polittically driven by majors powers?

I as the father of three daughters have assumed the role of the World Bank while my wife, poor her, has been assigned the role of the IMF. Do you really think my daughters love their mother less for that?

To reduce the strictness of the IMF is silly objective but of course to get better and more combat experienced platoon leaders at the IMF that would help. Counting solely on PhDs, from just one set of favored universities, is just too dangerous.

The board of PSA, Europe's No. 2 automaker after Volkswagen, cited "the extraordinary difficulties currently faced by the automotive industry" as its reason for replacing Streiff with Philippe Varin, currently the boss of steelmaker Corus. But Streiff, 54, had alienated other top PSA managers and infuriated the French government by vowing to shrink the group's payroll-even after receiving a nearly $4 billion government bailout that was supposed to protect jobs.

Although rumors had circulated for weeks that Streiff's job was in danger, the announcement clearly caught him off guard. Through an outside spokesman, he issued a statement calling the board's decision "incomprehensible," adding, "The policies we defined and put in place over the past two years have left PSA well-armed against the current crisis." Investors didn't seem happy, either: PSA shares sank more than 9 percent on the news of Streiff's departure.

With security in Iraq improving, international oil companies are quickly moving in, often with little or no fanfare. Hanter Gasser, Royal Dutch Shell's (RDS) top executive for Iraq, recently spent a week in Basra, site of the country's biggest fields, checking on a joint venture Shell is starting with the Iraqis to find commercial uses for the gas that is flared off during oil production. Gasser says Iraq burns off enough gas to power two countries the size of Jordan.

Iraqi police officers protecting oil installations north of Basra.
Shell is one of about 30 oil companies, including ExxonMobil, Chevron, and BP, that are pursuing licensing agreements with Baghdad. Iraq intends to boost production in seven fields holding an estimated 44 billion barrels of reserves, more than a third of its total. Those agreements are supposed to be awarded in a few months. "We have high interest in Iraq, and we are waiting to see the terms," Gasser says. Iraqi oil production, at a low 2.5 million barrels a day, is just where it was before the war. If Iraq produced anywhere near its targeted 6 million barrels a day, it could change the industry's dynamics and curb talk of a looming shortage.

Bailed out US banks including Citibank, headed by Indian American chief executive Vikram Pandit, are facing a probe over increase in
rates and fees, a media report said Monday.

The Congressional Oversight Panel, the body named by the Congress to oversee the federal bailout under the Troubled Asset Relief Programme (TARP), is working on a report examining instances of potentially inappropriate lending by banks that got government capital, according to the Wall Street Journal.

"The people who are subsidising the activities of the banks through their tax dollars are the same people who are furnishing the high profits through consumer lending," Elizabeth Warren, chairwoman of the Congressional Oversight Panel told the Journal in an interview.

Switzerland is considering further measures against the OECD in the row over how much the country is doing to reform its policy on tax
havens, media reports said on Sunday.

The Neue Zuercher Zeitung (NZZ) quoted Swiss officials as saying they might block progress in cooperation with China, India and other emerging countries in protest against being placed on the OECD's "grey list".

On Wednesday Switzerland blocked a payment of 136,000 euros (180,000 dollars) to the OECD, a 30-member organisation of major industrialised countries.

Officials were now considering delaying their membership subscription of 10 million Swiss francs (8.65 million dollars) or blocking the 2011 reelection of OECD secretary general Angel Gurria, the paper reported.

The federal finance ministry could not be reached for comment.

But Interior Minister Pascal Couchepin told Sonntag, another Sunday paper, that it was not up to the OECD to act as a "restaurant guide" on the issue.

French immigration minister Eric Besson pledged today to remove a camp where illegal migrants gather near the port of Calais to try crossing to Britain.

The "jungle", as the makeshift tent city is known locally, sprang up after France closed a large Red Cross centre at nearby Sangatte in 2002, under pressure from Britain which saw it as a magnet for clandestine migrants.

"The jungle will no longer exist," Mr Besson told local business leaders during a visit to Calais.

"To maintain and develop the jungle would be an obstacle to economic interests and employment," he said.

Mr Besson was due to make a speech later outlining specific measures. His visit to Calais comes two days after police and bulldozers swooped on the camp, arresting about 200 migrants and removing their tents made of plastic sheeting and bits of wood.

The raid angered human rights activists who said it made no sense to clear out the "jungle" as migrants would simply relocate elsewhere in the area, as they did after Sangatte was closed. France and Britain should be looking for more sustainable solutions, they said.

Federal regulators on Friday will privately begin telling the 19 largest US financial institutions how well they performed in stress
tests to assess their soundness.

Regulators trying to stabilize the financial system also will release the test methodology they used, which could provide clues about which banks may be in trouble - but also could could unwittingly roil the industry.

The results of the stress tests won't be publicly released until May 4.

The slow-motion rollout is intended to blunt market reaction to the news of which banks are healthy, which ones could fail if the recession worsens and which need more money to survive.

News reports, including a confidential outline of the tests first reported by The Associated Press this week, have led analysts to start handicapping which banks could fail. The speculation will intensify with Friday's release of the test methodology.

``I'm worried about the overreaction - people selling every bank short and pulling out all their deposits and hiding their money in the mattress,'' said Scott Talbott, a lobbyist with the Financial Services Roundtable, which represents the biggest financial firms.

Regulators are striving to release enough information about the stress tests to inspire confidence. But they don't want to give analysts so much detail that they can run their own tests on the banks before the official release of results.

Equally, it may be true that British GDP will be lower than the government forecasts by the middle of the next decade - credit crunches are much harder to slip away from than the government forecasts. But after the stimulus the economy has received, there should be some growth, broadly corresponding to the shape the Treasury predicts.

The real issue is the evaporation of our economic and political pretensions. The Treasury has been forced to recognise that 5% of Britain's GDP has disappeared forever. Too many industries were dependent upon the crazy world of ever-rising house prices and easy credit; now gone for ever. This means that the path to sustainable public finances is going to be astonishingly painful. We can live with national debt doubling, but it cannot double again.

The numbers are terrifying. Budget deficits, even for Keynesian apostles of deficit finance like me, cannot stay at 12% of GDP, or £175bn, for very long, however justifiable in recession. The problem is that so much economic capacity has permanently disappeared, along with those parts of the economy that used to deliver rich tax revenues; the post-recession economy will only reduce the deficit by a quarter. The rest has got to be found by tax increases or reductions in planned spending.

The United States pledged robust support Saturday for an overhaul of governing power within the International Monetary Fund so key emerging-market nations get more say in how the lender operates.

In a speech to the IMF's steering committee, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner also called on the fund to be prepared to offer loans to recapitalize banks or to aid developing countries in rolling over corporate debt.

Geithner's proposals, delivered in a strongly worded address at the IMF's semiannual meeting, are likely to provoke some controversy among the other industralized countries who, with the United States, have long dominated the global lender.

He said, however, it was necessary to retool the IMF to reflect a shift in global economic reality.

"This is essential to strengthening the IMF's legitimacy, ensuring that it remains at the center of the international monetary system and reflects the realities of the 21st century," Geithner said.

Washington's commitment to reform carries special weight because it is the biggest single shareholder within the IMF.

The United States pledged robust support Saturday for an overhaul of governing power within the International Monetary Fund so key emerging-market nations get more say in how the lender operates.

In a speech to the IMF's steering committee, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner also called on the fund to be prepared to offer loans to recapitalize banks or to aid developing countries in rolling over corporate debt.

Geithner's proposals, delivered in a strongly worded address at the IMF's semiannual meeting, are likely to provoke some controversy among the other industralized countries who, with the United States, have long dominated the global lender.

He said, however, it was necessary to retool the IMF to reflect a shift in global economic reality.

"This is essential to strengthening the IMF's legitimacy, ensuring that it remains at the center of the international monetary system and reflects the realities of the 21st century," Geithner said.

Washington's commitment to reform carries special weight because it is the biggest single shareholder within the IMF.

Barack Obama is unhappy with much that preceded his occupation of the White House, and not only his predecessor’s foreign policy, for which he is a serial apologiser. Pre-Obama domestic policy also displeases him: any prosperity the nation enjoyed, he says, was built on a foundation of sand. That, won’t happen again: the trillions of debt he is loading on the nation’s books will enable us to erect our post-recession house on solid rock. Our world will never be the same again.

Of course, it never has been: the march of technology has enabled us to travel faster, age more slowly, entertain ourselves differently, and build air-conditioned homes in the miserably hot south and southwest, and in our nation’s steamy capital. But the president has something more in mind and, with control of both houses of Congress, the power to change the way we live now. Let’s make a few guesses as to where those changes will take us.

Top of the president’s change list is the way we consume energy. He believes our use of carbon-based fuels is causing the globe to heat up, with all the dire consequences conjured up by Al Gore as he sits in the library of his home, probably the largest single consumer of energy of any private residence in America. By one means or another, the president will make the use of oil, natural gas and especially coal so expensive that consumers will be forced to use less energy, and rely more for the energy we do use on costly wind and solar power, paid for with tax-funded subsidies or higher utility bills.

Barack Obama is unhappy with much that preceded his occupation of the White House, and not only his predecessor’s foreign policy, for which he is a serial apologiser. Pre-Obama domestic policy also displeases him: any prosperity the nation enjoyed, he says, was built on a foundation of sand. That, won’t happen again: the trillions of debt he is loading on the nation’s books will enable us to erect our post-recession house on solid rock. Our world will never be the same again.

Of course, it never has been: the march of technology has enabled us to travel faster, age more slowly, entertain ourselves differently, and build air-conditioned homes in the miserably hot south and southwest, and in our nation’s steamy capital. But the president has something more in mind and, with control of both houses of Congress, the power to change the way we live now. Let’s make a few guesses as to where those changes will take us.

Top of the president’s change list is the way we consume energy. He believes our use of carbon-based fuels is causing the globe to heat up, with all the dire consequences conjured up by Al Gore as he sits in the library of his home, probably the largest single consumer of energy of any private residence in America. By one means or another, the president will make the use of oil, natural gas and especially coal so expensive that consumers will be forced to use less energy, and rely more for the energy we do use on costly wind and solar power, paid for with tax-funded subsidies or higher utility bills.

Lady Godiva's legendary ride naked through Coventry was perhaps one of the most effective anti-tax demonstrations in history. Her tyrannical husband, Earl Leofric, had imposed an oppressive tax called the Heregeld to pay for the King’s bodyguard.

After pleading with him to repeal the tax, Leofric replied: "You will have to ride naked through Coventry before I will change my ways". So Godiva took him at his word – after ordering the town to close all their windows and doors, she rode through the town with only her long golden hair as her cover. True to his word, Godiva’s husband repealed the hated tax.

2. 1773: Colonial taxes

The Boston Tea party was not a party, but a demonstration against the unfair taxation of colonies. The British Government gave the British East India Company, an English trade company, far more beneficial tax arrangements than its colonial competitors.

Demonstrators in Boston became particularly fed-up with this, and one night a group of protestors sneaked onboard a docked British East India Company ship and unloaded 45 tons of tea (worth an estimated £10,000 - that is about £953,000 today) into the sea. The event ultimately helped spark the American Revolution and the loss of America to the British Empire.

Lady Godiva's legendary ride naked through Coventry was perhaps one of the most effective anti-tax demonstrations in history. Her tyrannical husband, Earl Leofric, had imposed an oppressive tax called the Heregeld to pay for the King’s bodyguard.

After pleading with him to repeal the tax, Leofric replied: "You will have to ride naked through Coventry before I will change my ways". So Godiva took him at his word – after ordering the town to close all their windows and doors, she rode through the town with only her long golden hair as her cover. True to his word, Godiva’s husband repealed the hated tax.

2. 1773: Colonial taxes

The Boston Tea party was not a party, but a demonstration against the unfair taxation of colonies. The British Government gave the British East India Company, an English trade company, far more beneficial tax arrangements than its colonial competitors.

Demonstrators in Boston became particularly fed-up with this, and one night a group of protestors sneaked onboard a docked British East India Company ship and unloaded 45 tons of tea (worth an estimated £10,000 - that is about £953,000 today) into the sea. The event ultimately helped spark the American Revolution and the loss of America to the British Empire.

The current crisis may mean he is about 10 years out – but, still, not a bad prediction for a man who died in 1938.

HousePriceCrash.co.uk was established in October 2003 after its founders predicted “one of the potentially biggest economic boom bust events in living memory” was coming. Its aim, apparently, is to provide a “counterbalance to the huge amounts of positive spin the housing market receives in the main media”.

Whist there is not currently a lot of positive news about the housing market to counter, the site does provide a plethora of information, statistics and forums for those interested in the great house price crash.

He may not have predicted the entire financial meltdown, but he did warn the Government of the possible collapse of Icelandic banks back in July. He said last week: “"Alarm bells were ringing all over about the Icelandic banks and the Treasury must have been blind and deaf not to hear them."

In a written question to the government in July, he asked: "What steps [have] the United Kingdom financial authorities taken to satisfy themselves, independently of the Icelandic financial authorities, of the solvency and stability of Icelandic banks taking deposits in the United Kingdom?”

Lord Davies, for the Government, replied that there was no concern about the liquidity or capital base of Icelandic banks operating in the UK.

The financial events of recent weeks have filled many of us with shock and panic. Surely no one could have predicted that we would be in this mess? Well, actually, they did. Here are ten people who saw the financial meltdown coming...

Here is a question Mr Cable’s posed to Gordon Brown, then Chancellor, during Treasury Questions back in November 2003: “The growth of the British economy is sustained by consumer spending pinned against record levels of personal debt, which is secured, if at all, against house prices that the Bank of England describes as well above equilibrium level. What action will the Chancellor take on the problem of consumer debt?”

Mr Brown did not answer how he would solve the problem, merely replying that: “We have been right about the prospects for growth in the British economy, and the hon. Gentleman (Mr. Cable) has been wrong.”

In October 2005 Mr Wood wisely declared: "Investors should sell all exposure to the American mortgage securities market." In an interview in 2007, he said: "Some institutions have been behaving like leveraged speculators rather than banks… The UK economy is heading for a sharp shock. It just remains to be seen how bad

In the first quarter of 2008, Deutsche Bank had posted a net loss of 141 million euros, and analysts polled by Dow Jones Newswires had forecast a net profit of 764 million euros this time around.

Bank chairman Josef Ackermann said: "This was a key quarter for Deutsche Bank. Once again we demonstrated our strength, as we have consistently throughout this crisis. "But in this quarter, we also proved our earnings power."

Deutsche Bank is the latest global bank to report solid first quarter results, along with peers such as Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Credit Suisse, giving a glimmer of hope that the financial crisis could be past the worst.

Softbank, now with about 20.6 million subscribers, controls about 19.2 percent of the nation's market, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous fiscal year. But average sales per user declined for voice calls, while they were up for data transmission.

Losses on investments from the market downturn dragged on its earnings, according to Softbank, which bought British cellular giant Vodafone Group PLC's struggling Japanese operations in 2006.

A major one-time loss related to payments for bonds for its mobile unit as well as a write-off for its optical fiber Internet services, also hurt results, it said.

One business area that performed better than last year was its Internet-related "cultural" businesses such as advertising, Internet shopping and auctions, Softbank said.

Softbank also introduced attractive mobile content such as video of comedy acts popular in Japan called "S-1 Battle," and easy-to-use applications called "mobile widget."

For the fiscal year ending March 31, Softbank's profit dropped 60.3 percent to 43.2 billion yen, on 2.67 trillion yen in sales, down 3.7 percent on year.

Softbank did not give a net profit forecast, but expects operating profit for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2010, to rise 17 percent from the fiscal year just ended to 420 billion yen.

The long awaited 2009 Investment Priorities Plan (IPP) that lists business projects qualified for tax incentives from the government remains unsigned nearly after a quarter has passed into the year earning howls of frustration from the business sector which is currently reeling from a global recession.

The Board of Investments (BoI) expected Malacañang’s approval of the yearly list by the end of last month but petitions from various sectors for changes in the list that Malacañang ordered to be heard delayed its signing, Trade and Industry Secretary Peter Favila said.

Favila said the BoI had to conduct new hearings for the late petitions despite the BoI completing all public hearings along with involved government agencies on the list as early as February this year.

“The IPP has been completed and the President has to sign it,” Favila said.

Favila, however, declined to explain what specific areas of the draft IPP were changed during the Malacañang-initiated hearings.

Favila was also asked if the President will sign the IPP before she leaves for Egypt today but he quipped “I do not ask the President for commitment.”

Initially, the BoI said the 2009 IPP focuses on the granting of incentives to all domestic micro, small and medium enterprises that would include the smallest type of projects such as sari-sari stores and three-wheel vehicles operators.

The scheme is part of plans drafted by the BoI along with other government agencies in line with a directive from the Arroyo administration to safeguard jobs and attract investments while the country suffers from the effects of the global financial slowdown.

BoI managing head and Trade Undersecretary Elmer Hernandez earlier said the new IPP may include new types of incentives that are still in the process of discussions by the IPP inter-agency committee.

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) board has agreed to triple its capital base to $165 billion to cope with the financial crisis, the bank
said on Thursday. This would ensure "much-needed resources to respond to the global economic crisis and to the longer-term development needs of the Asia and the Pacific region," the bank said in a statement.

An "overwhelming majority" of the ADB's 67 countries approved the multilateral institution's fifth general capital increase in its 42-year history on yesterday, the statement said.

"This substantial increase is a resounding vote of confidence from our shareholders for what we can achieve as a premier development partner in the region," ADB president Haruhiko Kuroda was quoted as saying.

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