1.5 Million People Now Infected in
Ukraine: What Will Happen To Other Countries?

According to reports on the progression of regions affected,
there are now approximately 1.5 million cases of people infected
in the Ukraine with 328 dead from a still-to-be-characterized
virus. What would happen in other countries if a virus with a
similar transmission rate were to infect their population?

The progression of the outbreak was as follows:

On November 2nd, 255,516 were infected
On November 4th, 478,456 were infected
On November 5th, 633,877 were infected
On November 7th, 871,037 were infected
On November 8th, 969,247 were infected
On November 9th, 1,031,597 were infected
On November 17th, 1,457,564 were infected

In other words, there was a 470% increase in infections in just
15 days. The population of Ukraine is just over 46 million. That
means 3% of the population was infected in slightly over two weeks.

Fatality rate is the ratio of deaths within a designated population
of people with a particular condition, over a certain period of
time. The rate for the 1918 Spanish flu was >2.5%, about 0.1%
for the Asian and Hong Kong flus, and <0.1% for other influenza
pandemics. Zaïre Ebola Virus is among the deadliest viruses
with a case fatality rate of roughly 90%. Fatality rate from swine
flu in the U.S. is far less than any type of flu including seasonal
influenza.

The fatality rate of the Ukraine pneumonic virus has been calculated
by some experts to be somewhere between 0.5% and 0.7%. According
to the WHO, the Ukraine virus is causing a fatality rate of .02%
which seems to be either a gross miscalculation or intentional
deception.

Excluding factors such as age structure, population density, and
other specific variables that may change transmission rates, here's
a breakdown of what could happen to other countries if the same
virus hits with a similar infection rate:

Country

Potential Infected
After 15 days (3%)

Potential Dead
After 15 days (0.6%)

Australia

661,770

3,970

Canada

1,015,410

6,092

China

40,025,700

240,154

Croatia

133,051

798

India

35,181,600

211,089

Mexico

3,226,520

19,359

Norway

145,371

872

Netherlands

497,229

2,983

United Kingdom

1,849,037

11,094

United States

9,238,740

55,432

These would be modest scenarios for more populated countries,
especially if populations are dense.