Forecast Update: fewer showers expected this afternoon

Afternoon and evening outdoor activities should be able to go on as planned with only an isolated shower to dodge around midday.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Wednesday will bring a high temperature in the mid 80s. Isolated showers are possible but much of the day will be spent dry across the area. Skies won’t necessarily be overcast, but expect more clouds than sun. The overnight hours will stay quiet with a low temperature in the upper 60s.

Up Next: Another round of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to develop Late Thursday, perhaps after dark, and persist into Friday. This batch has the greatest potential to produce downpours, amounting to a few inches of rain, and a few stronger thunderstorms. The unsettled pattern will begin to ease as we move into the weekend. Of course, more sunshine will lead to hot temperatures with highs approaching 90 degrees Saturday and Sunday.

THE SCIENCE:Forecast Discussion:A shortwave trough positioned over the Four Corners will continue to send waves of positive vorticity advection through a west-southwest flow across the Gulf Coast. Areas of omega, or uplift, will be maximized by these waves of energy and diurnal heating with dew points in the upper 60s will contribute to the development of showers and thunderstorms as well. After a dry beginning, the next wave of energy will scoot across the region this afternoon. A few showers may spark, however a pocket of mid-level dry air may limit activity. Showers will have a difficult time developing and sustaining themselves and thus rain coverage has been trimmed back for today. The final round of rain is pegged for Late Thursday as the shortwave trough itself and an associated surface front approach the region. The most widespread and heavy batch of rain will affect the area during the Thursday Night to Friday Afternoon time period. As precipitable water values will be 200% of normal, 1-2” or rain could easily fall with locally higher amounts. This would leave a weeklong total of 2-4” of rain. By the weekend, that trough will be pulling away to the east and some drier air will filter in aloft. Rain chances are considerably lower, if not absent for Saturday. A mid-level ridge will result in a hot and dry Sunday and that pattern will hold into early next week. A string of 90° days could go up on the boards—not uncommon for Late May.