In working on the individual program streaks project (something I hope to share soon), I’ve found a few more problems in the individual season records for a few schools. The following corrections to season records (simply tallying wins and losses, not changing the results of any individual games) have been made:

Will the new six-man teams be competitive in their first year? At least one will be in the title hunt right away, but with four new teams entering six-man this year — Wyoming Indian, Normative Services and Saratoga moving down from 11-man and St. Stephens coming up from the junior-varsity level — anything is possible. Saratoga, an 11-man playoff qualifier just two years ago, has the best chance of being immediately competitive. Meanwhile, NSI and Wyoming Indian are a combined 5-57 the past four years and can only benefit from the switch.

Even so, is Dubois still the favorite? Yep. The Rams won their first state football championship last year and even though they lost five all-staters, main offensive weapon Sterling Baker and fellow all-state pick Austin Tharp will return to keep the Rams in the upper echelon of six-man.

Whose turn is it for a breakthrough year? Midwest. The Oilers have been gearing for 2013 for a while now, and with both of the squad’s all-state players (Cam Ray and Tucker Even) back from last year, can you blame them? Midwest is the early favorite in a restructured East Conference and is a legitimate threat to make it back to a state championship game for the first time since winning the nine-man title in 1991.

How have you gotten this far without mentioning Snake River? Good question. The Rattlers have been participants in the past three state title games, winning it all in 2010 and 2011. But the perennial pacesetters in six-man lost 10 seniors and all their starters to graduation and now face a conference schedule that includes state champ Dubois, up-and-comer Meeteetse and 11-man newcomer Wyoming Indian. The Rattlers will likely still be one of six-man’s better teams, but unlike the last few years, the Rattlers will have to earn that designation rather than have it given to them.

Four players to watch

Sterling Baker, Dubois. The North Conference’s offensive player of the year last year, Baker ran for 1,933 yards and 34 touchdowns in leading the Rams to the state championship. He also threw most of the Rams’ passes, throwing for 569 yards and 12 scores, and was second on the team in defensive points. He’ll again be the catalyst for the Rams if they hope to make it back to Laramie to defend their title.

Cam Ray, Midwest. One of two all-state choices back for the Oilers this fall, Ray led the Oilers in most major statistical categories, piling up 1,983 yards of all-purpose offense, scoring 114 points and notching more than 20 defensive points per game. The diminutive quarterback will be a big piece of Midwest’s success in 2013.

Seth Bennett, Meeteetse. Bennett missed the bulk of his sophomore season due to injury, but came back with a vengeance as a junior. He led Class 1A six-man in rushing yards (1,951), rushing touchdowns (39), scoring (261 total points) and all-purpose offense (3,485 total yards), and was fifth in 1A in defensive points. And he’s back.

Story Penning, Hulett. One of the most athletic football players in the state, Penning is the charge that makes the Red Devils’ offense go. An all-state choice last year, Penning ran for 1,420 yards — 12.5 yards per attempt — and 17 touchdowns; more importantly, he was second in the state with 27 defensive points per game.

Four key games

Saratoga at Midwest, Sept. 20. Perhaps the most intriguing game on the six-man calendar, this game will answer numerous questions: Is this really Midwest’s breakthrough year? How will Saratoga match up in six-man conference play? And can either team mount a serious challenge to the West Conference’s top teams in the playoffs?

Hulett at Kaycee, Sept. 28. No one can overlook the Red Devils this fall. Poised for a breakthrough year in six-man, Hulett will need this victory over the perennial contenders from Kaycee to establish itself as a serious contender for the state title.

Dubois at Snake River, Oct. 19. Snake River beat Dubois for the 2011 six-man title; Dubois beat Snake River for the 2012 six-man title. This one is big.

Dubois at Wyoming Indian, Oct. 25. Every game the Chiefs play this fall will be interesting, as the school with just one playoff berth in program history to its credit tries to reverse its fortunes in what may be its only playoff-eligible year of six-man. The regular-season finale could be the ramp-up to a memorable playoff run, or it could be the end of a busted experiment. For long-suffering Chiefs football fans, we can hope for the former.

I can’t pick the Oilers without being accused of being a homer. So I’ll vote my head and not my heart. Dubois 60, Midwest 56.

Trivia

Normative Services enters 2013 with an unfortunate streak in tow — the Wolves haven’t beaten a varsity opponent on the road in 21 consecutive tries. The question: Who was the last varsity team to lose to NSI away from Sheridan?

Classification’s 2013 theme song

So who’s your pick to win it all in six-man this year? The changes, plus the talent turnover, will make this one of the most intriguing classifications this season. Post some thoughts below and let’s start discussing the season!

I’ve been doing some research on streaks (more on that later) and I’ve found a couple more streaks that needed to be added to the streaks page, ones that have somehow escaped my knowledge until recently:

THE TEAMS
NatronaPick: First in 4AConfidence Index: 70 percentMy gut says: Favorites in 4A? Gillette and Natrona. Gillette has to go to Casper to play the Mustangs this year. And the Mustangs hardly ever lose at home.

GillettePick: Second in 4AConfidence Index: 80 percentMy gut says: The Camels won’t make it easy on anyone this year. That trip to Casper, though, will be a toughie.

Cheyenne EastPick: Third in 4AConfidence Index: 85 percentMy gut says: The T-Birds have the talent to beat everyone they face. Except Gillette and Natrona. Those two games will require a couple lucky bounces. Could happen, though.

SheridanPick: Fourth in 4AConfidence Index: 50 percentMy gut says: Sheridan earns the No. 4 spot by default. After the past few years, the Broncs have earned that nod. Of course, they have to re-earn it on the field this year.

Kelly WalshPick: Fifth in 4AConfidence Index: 35 percentMy gut says: Basically every coach in 4A said Kelly Walsh will be improved from last year. Whether that’s enough to get the Trojans into the top four or not is debatable. Hence my low confidence.

Cheyenne CentralPick: Sixth in 4AConfidence Index: 60 percentMy gut says: The Indians have consistently been a .500 team the past few years. They’ll be competitive again this year, but upper-echelon worthy? Not yet.

Rock SpringsPick: Seventh in 4AConfidence Index: 40 percentMy gut says: Spots 7-10 in 4A are as big a mess as last year. The Tigers earn this spot because I think they’ve got enough player consistency in their program to top the other three.

EvanstonPick: Eighth in 4AConfidence Index: 25 percentMy gut says: I have had a really tough time getting a read on the Red Devils this year. So did the 4A coaches I talked to. The summary? The Red Devils should be playoff contenders. I think.

Cheyenne SouthPick: Ninth in 4AConfidence Index: 40 percentMy gut says: I want to see that losing streak end. Everyone does — unless you’re lined up on the opposite side from the Bison. Unfortunately for South, that means they’ll get the best out of everyone they face.

LaramiePick: Tenth in 4AConfidence Index: 35 percentMy gut says: Laramie could – and maybe should – be put higher than this. I hope a new coaching staff can give some stability and strength to the program, but it may take years to see a consistent winner come from the Gem City.

THE TEAMS
DouglasPick: First in EastConfidence Index: 75 percentMy gut says: The East side is down a bit this year, and a solid Bearcats squad will benefit from that.

BuffaloPick: Second in EastConfidence Index: 50 percentMy gut says: I’m still trying to decide if Buffalo’s slide to a losing record last year was an aberration or the start of a trend. I’m thinking aberration.

RivertonPick: Third in EastConfidence Index: 40 percentMy gut says: After last year’s run to the conference title, the Wolverines lost a lot to graduation. Such losses almost always precipitate a drop in the standings. Oh, and a new system to learn….

LanderPick: Fourth in EastConfidence Index: 65 percentMy gut says: The Tigers still have steps to make to be considered a true conference title contender. But they’re not a bad team by any stretch.

TorringtonPick: Fifth in EastConfidence Index: 50 percentMy gut says: I think the top four and bottom two are pretty clear in the East. However, that means the Trailblazers are just an upset away from the playoffs….

RawlinsPick: Sixth in EastConfidence Index: 50 percentMy gut says: You’ll notice that my confidence levels for Torrington and Rawlins are exactly the same. That’s because the loser of that Torrington-Rawlins game in Week 5 will have a heck of a time escaping the basement.

PowellPick: First in WestConfidence Index: 90 percentMy gut says: This is one of the easiest picks of the season. The two-time defending champs have a ton of talent coming back. And everyone knows it.

Star ValleyPick: Second in WestConfidence Index: 50 percentMy gut says: The West will be a challenging conference this year. I’m really curious to see how the Braves respond after some success last year.

CodyPick: Third in WestConfidence Index: 40 percentMy gut says: Cody’s best chance at a state title may be a year away. That doesn’t mean they can’t be contenders right now, though.

Green RiverPick: Fourth in WestConfidence Index: 65 percentMy gut says: I’m a bit scared to have the Wolves this low, but in a stacked conference, this is all the higher they can go in the preseason.

JacksonPick: Fifth in WestConfidence Index: 65 percentMy gut says: Unfortunately for the Broncs (and Worland), I think the dividing line between playoff and non-playoff teams in the West this year is pretty clear.

THE TEAMS
Big HornPick: First in EastConfidence Index: 45 percentMy gut says: In talking to the coaches in the East this summer, one thing is clear: No one knows who the favorite is. Big Horn gets the nod out of respect for what it did a year ago.

BurnsPick: Second in EastConfidence Index: 65 percentMy gut says: Of all the teams in the East, Burns has the most returning. And they’ve got something to prove after a couple years of lackluster season finishes.

GlenrockPick: Third in EastConfidence Index: 25 percentMy gut says: I think Glenrock is a playoff team this year. That means they could finish anywhere from first to fourth… and anywhere in between.

WheatlandPick: Fourth in EastConfidence Index: 50 percentMy gut says: It’s been hard for me to get a read on the Bulldogs. I think they’ve got the talent to win the whole thing. I think they have to prove it to both themselves and their opponents before they can be legit contenders, though.

NewcastlePick: Fifth in EastConfidence Index: 25 percentMy gut says: This was the hardest pick of them all. Newcastle should be really good this year. In a jumbled, unpredictable East, though, they could finish on the outside looking in. But, obviously, I’m not confident about that…

WrightPick: Sixth in EastConfidence Index: 45 percentMy gut says: Of the six teams with legit chances to make a run at the East Conference title this year, the Panthers were the one most often labeled with the “potential” tag. The task is turning potential into results.

MoorcroftPick: Seventh in EastConfidence Index: 80 percentMy gut says: Moorcroft will be better. The problem is most everyone else in the East is, too.

Tongue RiverPick: Eighth in EastConfidence Index: 85 percentMy gut says: The rebuilding continues in Dayton. Rome wasn’t built in a day; neither will be the Eagles.

Mountain ViewPick: First in WestConfidence Index: 60 percentMy gut says: Mountain View might be a year away from its best season. They’re still good enough to win the West this year, though.

LovellPick: Second in WestConfidence Index: 40 percentMy gut says: The Bulldogs lost a lot from last year’s squad, so having them this high is a bit scary to me. They earned a lot of respect from other coaches in the conference, though, even despite that.

GreybullPick: Third in WestConfidence Index: 45 percentMy gut says: For a team that finished 3-6, this might seem high, but almost every coach in the West said Greybull has the goods to go far this year.

LymanPick: Fourth in WestConfidence Index: 15 percentMy gut says: Lyman earned more respect than this last year, but the loss of a tremendous senior class puts the Eagles here for now. I can’t tell whether they’re ready for another deep playoff run or rebuilding after losing so much.

PinedalePick: Fifth in WestConfidence Index: 50 percentMy gut says: The Wranglers are still middle-of-the-road right now: good enough to demand respect, but not good enough (yet) to be feared.

ThermopolisPick: Sixth in WestConfidence Index: 30 percentMy gut says: A coaching change and the loss of a decently sized senior class has me thinking the worst for the Bobcats this fall. I put them here because I think they’ve got enough talent to prove me wrong. I think.

KemmererPick: Seventh in WestConfidence Index: 15 percentMy gut says: A Shawn Rogers-coached team should never be picked this low. And yet, here, I did it. I’m dumb.

Big PineyPick: Eighth in WestConfidence Index: 70 percentMy gut says: Until the Punchers pick up a conference victory, I have to default to picking them here. That said, this is a program that will improve dramatically this year, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see them finish outside the cellar.

My confidence index in that championship game actually happening? Like 2 percent. This classification is by far the least predictable of any class this year. Talking to the coaches in the classification only further proved that.

THE TEAMS
SoutheastPick: First in EastConfidence Index: 55 percentMy gut says: Either Lusk or Southeast will win the East this year. The game between the two of them is in Yoder. Hence me picking the Cyclones.

LuskPick: Second in EastConfidence Index: 55 percentMy gut says: The Tigers won’t finish any lower than second. They’ll have to beat Southeast in Yoder, though, to earn the top seed – a tough task.

Upton-SundancePick: Third in EastConfidence Index: 90 percentMy gut says: This may be the easiest pick of the season. The Patriots are solid and deep, but they probably don’t have enough to keep up with Southeast or Lusk. Yet.

LinglePick: Fourth in EastConfidence Index: 45 percentMy gut says: The Doggers are consistently a tough team to beat. All it will take for them to move up is for one team to overlook them.

Pine BluffsPick: Fifth in EastConfidence Index: 60 percentMy gut says: I feel like the Hornets deserve respect this fall, but every time I look at the conference, they end up here. Sorry, Pine.

CokevillePick: First in WestConfidence Index: 100 percentMy gut says: When the stampede is coming, you get the heck out of the way.

Rocky MountainPick: Second in WestConfidence Index: 35 percentMy gut says: Places 2-6 in the West are a mess. But I think the Grizzlies have the slightest of edges to take that second spot and host in the first round.

RiversidePick: Third in WestConfidence Index: 30 percentMy gut says: I’ve got the Rebels awfully high this season, especially considering that the squad has had turnover in both the playing and coaching ranks. But I like the talent up in Basin.

ShoshoniPick: Fourth in WestConfidence Index: 10 percentMy gut says: Shoshoni should be higher than this. Like I said, places 2-6 are a mess. I wish I could just say “tie” and move on. But I can’t, because you expect more of me than that. So I put Shoshoni here, knowing they’ll probably not finish here.

BurlingtonPick: Fifth in WestConfidence Index: 40 percentMy gut says: Of all the teams in the West, Burlington may have lost the most from last year. That doesn’t mean they can’t be a playoff-caliber team, though.

Wind RiverPick: Sixth in WestConfidence Index: 30 percentMy gut says: I had to put someone last. The Cougars could just as easily finish second in the conference as they could sixth. It’s that kind of year in the West. Lots of fun = low predictability.

The big three still reign supreme in Class 1A 11-man this year, and it will be interesting to see (1) whether Southeast, Lusk or Cokeville wins the state title and (2) if any of the other eight teams in the class can even come close to knocking off one of those three.

In preparation for the second annual Wyoming Sports Preview Guide magazine, I’ve spent the last two months talking to football coaches across the state. So far, I’ve talked to 62 of the 64 coaches (NSI doesn’t have a coach yet, and for one school I talked to an assistant coach rather than the head coach).

A standard question I asked every coach was to pick the favorite in their conference. In asking that question, something became clear — sometimes, the coaches are just as uncertain about who should be the favorites as the guys asking the question.

Just like in previous years, I’m posting my predictions for the standings for each classification and conference. But new this year is the “Confidence Index,” a number that demonstrates my faith that I’ve picked that team’s placing correctly. The “Confidence Index” has no basis in math; it’s more an instinctual feeling than anything.

As we progress, you’ll notice some classifications and conferences have a higher overall confidence than others. That’s not a mistake. Some classes are easier to pick than others — both for me and for the coaches.

The picks will start today with the classification with the smallest schools, Class 1A six-man:

THE TEAMSMidwestPick: First in EastConfidence Index: 85 percentMy gut says: Almost every coach in six-man says this is the Oilers’ year to break through. I agree.

GuernseyPick: Second in EastConfidence Index: 65 percentMy gut says: Guernsey will challenge the best teams in six-man this year. To finish this high, though, they’ll have to win a bevy of tough games.

SaratogaPick: Third in EastConfidence Index: 50 percentMy gut says: The transition from 11-man to six-man will be good for the Panthers, and I’m all but certain they’ll make the playoffs. But the steep learning curve may keep them from hosting in the first round.

HulettPick: Fourth in EastConfidence Index: 70 percentMy gut says: Hulett is a genuine middle-of-the-pack team. The game against Kaycee in Week 4 may be for a playoff spot.

KayceePick: Fifth in EastConfidence Index: 45 percentMy gut says: I think I have Kaycee too low. But I also think the four teams I have ahead of them are better teams – this year. One upset will be all Kaycee needs to make the postseason.

HannaPick: Sixth in EastConfidence Index: 60 percentMy gut says: Hanna won’t be an easy team to beat. However, a coaching change plus a lack of depth probably means this won’t be the Miners’ year to make a deep playoff run.

NSIPick: Seventh in EastConfidence Index: 30 percentMy gut says: I’m so scared to put the Wolves here. Six-man could be the program’s niche. As it stands, though, the lack of certainty about the program’s makeup from year to year forces me to have them here.

DuboisPick: First in WestConfidence Index: 75 percentMy gut says: Just like Midwest in the East, Dubois in the West was basically a unanimous No. 1 choice from the coaches. I trust them.

MeeteetsePick: Second in WestConfidence Index: 90 percentMy gut says: The Longhorns are poised to be one of six-man’s toughest teams to beat this fall. Even so, I’m not sure if it’s enough to oust Dubois as the favorite.

Snake RiverPick: Third in WestConfidence Index: 25 percentMy gut says: I put the Rattlers here out of respect for the program and the tradition it has. What scares me is that the team lost basically all the experience it had to graduation, and the players coming back are untested.

Wyoming IndianPick: Fourth in WestConfidence Index: 35 percentMy gut says: I think the Chiefs could finish even higher than this, but I hesitate to put them any higher because of (1) history and (2) the six-man learning curve. The Week 6 showdown vs. Snake looms huge.

FarsonPick: Fifth in WestConfidence Index: 50 percentMy gut says: I think the Pronghorns are steadily improving, and they have what it takes to notch a couple victories this year. But that’s it.

St. StephensPick: Sixth in WestConfidence: 65 percentWhy?: The Eagles are young and inexperienced. They’ll struggle in their first year of varsity play. But they’ve got enough going right to pull a surprise or two.

Ten SleepPick: Seventh in WestConfidence: 50 percentMy gut says: The Pioneers only anticipate having seven players. They’re two injuries away from not even having a team. That won’t make them pushovers, though.

Six-man football has generally been upset-free in its short history, but the classification has more teams — and now more parity — than in previous years. That could make for a fun, unpredictable season.