Thursday, March 12, 2009

Last night was about as quiet as a Championship Week night can be. All but one big conference team that should have won did win, and in the two small conference championship games, favorites Robert Morris (in the NEC) and Portland State (in the Big Sky) punched their tickets to the dance. The lone favorite to lose was Texas A&M, thanks to a ridiculous 35-point second half performance from Texas Tech's Mike Singletary. The Aggies are still safe in terms of an at-large berth, but their seed took a bit of a hit in today's bracket. They fell from the top 9 seed to the third 10 seed.

The real fun (and the chaos) starts tonight. There are 53 games on today's schedule, and a large majority of them involve teams on or close to the bubble.

Here's a quick breakdown of tonight's biggest games, a look at what each of the bubble teams playing tonight has to do to eventually secure an at-large, and what the biggest storylines are with less than 96 hours remaining until the Selection Show:

In the A-10...The most important sub-plot heading into the A-10 tournament is whether Rhode Island can get to the final and get an at-large. The second-seeded Rams, who have won 10 of their last 12, begin that journey today against Duquesne. If they win, they face Dayton in the semis. Another win over the Flyers, who they beat at home at the buzzer two weeks ago, might be enough to get URI dancing.

In the ACC...Miami and Virginia Tech face off today in an at-large elimination game. The loser's at-large chances are over; the winner will still need to beat Carolina in the quarters to get a bid. Maryland is also in action against N.C. State in the 7-10 game. If the Terps can beat the Wolfpack, and then upset Wake Forest in the quarters, they'll be back in the bracket.

In the Big XII...There's already been one upset victim in the Big XII tourney...will there be more today? Oklahoma State fans are hoping their team can pull a Texas Tech against second-seeded Oklahoma tonight. The Cowboys, who have now won seven of eight, probably punched their ticket by beating Iowa State last night, but they better not get blown out by the Sooners tonight if they want to feel safe on Selection Sunday. The wild card, if Oklahoma State does get blown out, is Kansas State. The Wildcats face Texas in their first game today, and if they upset the Longhorns and then beat top-seeded Kansas in the semis, they'd be in great shape for a bid.

In the Big East...It's looking more and more like Providence is going to have to beat Louisville tonight (or at the very least play a very, very competitive game) to get a bid. Having to play DePaul, and not Cincinnati, in their first game, really hurt the Friars, who were in need of one more notable win. Providence isn't 100% done with a loss tonight, but they'll certainly need some things to break right over the next few days. In other quarterfinal action today, Marquette takes on Villanova, UConn plays Syracuse, and West Virginia plays Pitt.

In the Big Ten...The tournament with the most critical set of first round games is the Big Ten. We have held firm in our belief that the Big Ten is going to be a seven-bid league when all is said and done, and whether that happens or not will depend a lot on what happens today. In the first Big Ten game of the day, Minnesota takes on Northwestern in a game that we have commented an approximately 8,427 times in the last four days. We still think the Wildcats, despite a season-ending loss at Ohio State, are a dangerous team in this tourney, and we like their chances to upset the Gophers. If we are wrong, and Minnesota wins, Creighton or Providence would see their bubble burst and the Gophers would be back in the field. The other two ginormous first round games today involve Michigan and Penn State. Michigan takes on Iowa, and if the Wolverines win, they're a lock for an at-large. If they lose (which is very possible), they wouldn't be done, but they would be in for a very long, painful weekend. Penn State, meanwhile, faces Indiana under circumstances that are very similar to Michigan's. With a win, the Nittany Lions should be in for good. A loss opens up a huge can of worms, especially if Michigan loses as well. We would give the slight edge to Penn State as the seventh Big Ten team if that scenario happens, but we aren't sure the committee would agree. It would depend on whether they value Michigan's solid OOC wins or Penn State's extremely strong arsenal of Big Ten wins. Did Penn State do enough in conference to make up for a non-existent OOC resume? Nittany Nation is hoping they don't have to find out the answer to that question.

In the Pac-10...The biggest question heading into the Pac-10 tournament is whether Arizona will get an at-large. The Wildcats face Arizona State, who swept them during the regular season, in their first round game. One win gets Arizona in, while a loss will have them on the Last Four In or Last Four Out list (depending on what happens elsewhere) on Selection Sunday.

In the MWC...The MWC has a chance to be anywhere from a two- to a four-bid league depending on what happens over the next couple of days. Utah and BYU are safe, and right now, we like New Mexico as the third and final MWC bid. The Lobos open up with Wyoming today, and if they win, they face the Utes in the semis. If New Mexico wins that game, they're in. If they don't, the third MWC bid (if there is one) would be the winner of today's UNLV/San Diego State game. The Rebels and Aztecs just played last week, and SDSU completed a season sweep by winning at home. If the Aztecs win this game and get past BYU and into the final, they'll get a bid. If they can't beat the Cougars, their at-large hopes depend on how New Mexico does and what happens elsewhere. Keep in mind that this tourney is in Vegas, where the Rebels lost just once (to SDSU) all season.

In the SEC...Of all the major conference tournaments, the most wide-open is no doubt the SEC. Whether the league ends up with three or four bids will be determined by how South Carolina, Florida, Auburn, and Kentucky fare. The Wildcats, who need to get to the final to get back in the at-large discussion, open with Mississippi today, while Florida opens with Arkansas. If the Gators win, they play Auburn in the quarters in an at-large elimination game. The winner of that game, if they can beat Tennessee and get to the final, will get a bid. If that team loses to the Vols, they'll have to hope that South Carolina loses its first game (to Georgia or Mississippi State) and that no other craziness happens in the rest of the conference tournies.

I'm as big a Kansas fan as it gets, but i'll admit that KU does not deserve more than a 3 unless they win the Big 12 tourney. Their nonconference featured losses vs Syracuse and UMass and blowout wins at Arizona and Mich St. In their defense, they did beat Washington, Tennessee and Siena.

I think Minnesota is in with this win, especially if Penn State or Ohio State lose their first tourney game. Even with an MSU loss their RPI should stay right around 40, making them one of the last in barring some more upsets.

Over the last ten years, 133 teams have finished with a Top-50 RPI and 25 or more D-1 wins.

All 133 of those teams made the NCAA tournament. ALL of them.

Creighton has 26 wins and currently sits comfortably inside the RPI top 50 (they're at #39). If the selection committee's recent history proves anything, it's that Creighton should be dancing, no questions asked.

If you look at the 17 teams this year that currently fit the 25+ wins and Top-50 profile, 15 of those teams are already considered to be locks for the Dance, with only Utah State and Creighton on the proverbial bubble.

That means at LEAST 148 of the 150 teams in the 25+ win and Top-50 RPI profiles over the last 11 years will have made the field, save Utah State (who's still got their WAC tourney coming up) and Creighton.

Also, every MVC regular conference champ this decade who didn't win their auto-bid has gotten an at-large. A perfect 9 for 9.

And every MVC team who won at least 14 games in conference play this decade got an at-large if they didn't win the auto-bid. A perfect 9 for 9 again.

Oh, what else... in the last six years, 50 teams in the RPI top 50 closed out their seasons with a 9-1 mark or better... and ALL 50 made the NCAAs.

Creighton closed out their season with an 11-1 run.

At this point, Creighton's also got more top-100 wins this year (10) than a projected two-thirds of the NCAA field.

They've got 26 wins, they're co-champs of the #9 conference in the nation, they've won 10 top-100 games, They're in the RPI top 40, and they went 11-1 down the stretch. What more can you ask for?

Don't you think the MVC's been trying to schedule games against the BCS? Don't continue to penalize the MVC because of the lack of quality wins, when the big boys don't ever want to schedule against them.

Clemson should be a 6 or 7 seed at best. They're 9-8 in the ACC having only played Duke and UNC once each. Their best wins are Duke and @Illinois. After that, you'd find victories over bubble teams as their best wins (B.C., Maryland, Va Tech, Miami, South Carolina). They're 1-4 in their last 5 games also.

Providence is in a lot of trouble right now. The Friars weren't very competitive against Louisville, and a couple of other bubble teams (Minnesota, VT) have already won games today. Providence fans need to hope the Hokies lose to Carolina in the ACC quarters, that LSU and Tennessee make it to the SEC final, and that BYU and Utah make it to the MWC final.

All these creighton people are so funny... When you play in a TERRIBLE CONFERENCE where only 4 other teams are top 100, lose 2 out fo your 3 biggest OOC games, lose 4 games by double digits, including to by 20 or more, and one of which was at home, and then dont even make your conference tourney final, you dont deserve a bid. Creighton didnt play ANYONE in the top 25 rpi, and only played 4 games in the top 50, All of whom were mid majors, and 3 of which were ILL ST (yuck...), And they couldnt even manage to win the season series with ILLINOIS ST!... Their OOC SOS was 144, and almost all of their worth comes from the fact that they were "conference co champions(big whoop, you played in the MVC), and the fact that they have 9 top 100 RPI wins, which condenses to 4 if you go top 90, which puts them at 4-5 vs top 90 teams, and they ONLY BEAT 1 AT LARGE TEAM THE ENTIRE YEAR! Stop your crying, schedule some good teams, and win some games if you want a bid.

All these people who want to bash Creighton are funny. Win some games? Seriously? They won 26. They had winning streaks of 11 and nine. They won 14 games in a top-nine conference. At least they had a winning record in conference play, unlike some of the bubble teams from so-called "power" conferences. And schedule someone? You think the big boys of the world are knocking down Creighton's door to even play a 2-for-1? Hell no. They want no part of the Qwest Center. Creighton could have done more. They could have not gotten beat by 24 in the last game. If they don't get a big, it would be semi-understandable. But they did what they had to do winning the conference title and 11 in a row down the stretch. Most of those bubble teams in those power conferences would be in without question with a similar resume.

To the Anonymous poster who was trying to use the fact that in 10 years, 133 teams in the top 50 RPI with 25 wins have always made the Tournament - this is some statistical sleight of hand.

In fact, only 18 of those teams were in the 31-50 bubble range, and only 3 of those 18 received at-large bids - the other 15 were automatic qualifiers.

I explain this in greater detail (along with an exploration of which historical comparisons are actually useful for evaluating Creighton) here: http://marchtodetroit.blogspot.com/2009/03/abuse-of-statistics-101.html

Creighton has a reasonable shot at the Tournament, but the statistics you're throwing around have nothing to do with it.

I don't want to speak for B101, but as I understand it, the only reason they kept Minnesota out is because they predicted a loss to Northwestern. With a double-digit victory, Minnesota should be in, even if they lose to the Spartans tomorrow. As with most things bubble-related, though, their odds depend in part on what happens elsewhere.

I've seen Minnesota listed anywhere from an 8 seed to out of the tournament since the regular season ended...now that they've beaten N'western are they in, or will they have to do something against Michigan St?

Minnesota's in, and as the hours tick away here, it is looking more and more like we are going to have to hold our noses and put eight Big Ten teams in the field. A ton of things had to happen over the last week for the Big Ten to get eight bids (starting with Michigan winning at Minnesota in their season finale), but miraculously all of those things have happened. All three Big Ten bubble teams won their first round games today, and that will likely end up being the last piece to the Big Ten getting eight.

Arizona is in big trouble. Their RPI is down to 59, they ended up with a 9-10 mark in the mediocre, and lost 5 of 6 down the stretch. It's really a question of how far will all of their good wins go (SDSU, vs. Gonzaga, Kansas, Washington, UCLA). As you can see none of those good wins came in a true road game (2-9 in true road games). They will be either last four in or out the rest of the week

The real question - will Lunardi finally remove UNLV from his bracket? He's had them not even among the last 4 in. I don't care how many good wins you have, when you finish 9-7 in the MWC, 3 games behind New Mexico and 2 games behind SDSU, you have to be behind those teams for a bid. And now they lost on their home floor in round 1.

I think PSU still has to be a little nervous. Just one win over Temple or URI earlier or beating Iowa in the last game would have made me feel comfortable putting them in, but I think they may have to beat Purdue. Due to OOC, I think they're behind both Minnesota and Michigan.

PSU's win vs. Indiana should not affect their tournament status at all. You can't say "we're in" because we beat Indiana, give me a break.

They played Indiana 3 times this season, so if you take away those 3, PSU is 8-8 in the Big Ten. I know, I know those wins count for your conference record, but let's be honest, Indiana was one of the worst teams in the nation this year.

Yes, they have a couple good road wins @MSU and @Illinois. Is that enough to overcome the fact that they were atrocious OOC, and only have Mount St. Mary's (who didn't win their conference) and GT (who finished 2-14 in the ACC) to look at as "good" wins. I honestly think they need to beat Purdue, or at least keep it very close. A double digit loss and I truly believe they don't deserve a bid.

How many times did we see a 20+ win FSU team that won 8 or 9 conference games which included wins over the top teams not make the tournament b/c they had a terrible OOC schedule and resume. The committee has always punished teams for not going out and playing tough OOC games, and PSU will be in that category if they can not beat Purdue tomorrow.

Didn't a FSU team that finished 6-10 in conference once make the tournament? That was like 8-9 years ago if i remember correctly. They've been on both sides of the bubble.

I think PSU is in, but only because the rest of the bubble is so weak this year. If there's another 3 bid stealers or so, then they might be out (if they don't win another game).

A second win over Purdue would be their 7th top 50 win which, when combined with only 1 over-100 loss (in double OT, thanks to 2 banked 3 pointers, 2 days after a brutal down to the wire home game... etc) would make them impossible to leave out.

That's true, but they also beat UCONN, Florida, Arizona, DePaul (back when they were good), and Wake Forest during the regular season. I think any team that did that and enough overall wins would make it.

That FSU team that was 6-10 in the ACC made the tournament back in '98. More recently, they've been left out a few times. Two years ago, I felt like they should have been the 8th team from the ACC in the tournament, but they got left out. That year, I think the ACC could have made an argument for nine, including Clemson.

Florida State that year had wins over Duke and Florida, and no bad losses. But they played a very weak OOC schedule, which is what supposedly cost them. They were also only 3-6 in their final 9.

We thought it was better than a 50% chance that one Big Ten team would lose today and felt that Minnesota was the best chance. Because of that we excluded Minnesota from our bracket. With the Gophers winning against Northwestern they have a better overall resume than PSU. It's very close and the last 5 Big Ten teams in will all be on the 8-10 lines so after tomorrow's games the pecking order will likely change.

Whom do USC thrust Cheap D3 Goldoutside the subject? I am going to guess the Penn Point out, since Lions' marquee benefits above the enjoys o The state of illinois, MSU along with Purdue might be overshaowed by Buy RS Goldmeans of lo RPI.

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