Current Marketing Thoughts

Kevin Van Trump has over 20 years of experience in the grain and livestock industry.

Something to consider..

Sep 19, 2013

Not only have I recommended taking a closer look at your 2014 fertilizer costs, and the fact you should start locking in prices if you are seeing substantial savings. But I also want you to look at 2014 seed prices. From what I am hearing Monsanto has raised prices on its price cards by around 5-10%. Pioneer and some of the others seem to have kept price increases from 0-5% for next year. Bottom-line seed prices aren't getting any cheaper. I guess if the seed companies can continue increasing yields via improved "technology," then they can justify raising price. What we need to consider is if corn prices continue falling, making profitability less and less attractive, there might be fewer acres planted in South America, hence making (top tier) seed supplies in 2014 a little tighter than normal here in the the US. Point being, despite an increase in price, we might be better off to bite the bullet early and get our seed secured rather than waiting for some-type of fire sale that may never occur.

As reported last week, I believe we are finally entering that 30-45 day fertilizer "buying window" that we have been patiently waiting for. I am by no means guaranteeing a bottom has been put in place, but it is certainly starting to feel like the risk is to the upside, not the down. With some prices falling back to levels not seen since 2009, I believe locking in some of the risk is a smart play. I have encouraged ALL of our readers to start calling around and checking with their suppliers in order to compare prices to previous years. If the savings have reached your particular area, be smart and start taking advantage.