NFL Picks, Week 15: The 49ers have been monsters as road favorites, and that’s what they are Sunday at Tampa Bay

* 49ERS -5.5, over Tampa Bay. My comment: A very important number here–the 49ers are 4-0 against the spread as a road favorite and have won those games by 24, 14, 32 and 21 points.

That’s an enormously telling stat, because when the 49ers are the better team by a lot (and being a road favorite means you’re a lot better than the home team), they’ve won by far more than the expected margins.

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So even though Tampa has won four of its last five and has some talent, I just can’t see QB Mike Glennon moving up and down the field against this 49ers D and I can’t see the 49ers’ power run/play-action passing game having much trouble against the Buc defenders.

Pretty clean call for me, something like the 49ers, 27-14.

* KANSAS CITY -4.5, over Raiders. My comment: Borderline read here, because I do think the Raiders will move the ball on KC and I think the Raiders D is due for a semi-stalwart performance after a series of duds.

Plus, the Raiders, even through this losing skid, are a strong 8-5 vs. the spread. But they’re 3-3 ATS at home and haven’t played in Oakland much lately. And the Chiefs are 2-5 ATS over their last 7 games.

Hmm. I’ll just lean towards the team playing for playoff positioning over the one playing for pride and I’ll say that Jamaal Charles makes 2 or 3 big runs that push a close game to something like a 24-17 Chiefs’ victory.

* JACKSONVILLE +2.5, over Buffalo. My comment: Jax actually has won its last three in a row and four of the last five outright and ATS. This is the back end of a tough Fla-Fla double road trip for the Bills, who have lost their last three road games by double-digits.

I like the Jaguars outright and maybe big.

2. RYAN (last week 2-1, overall 23-17-2)/

* 49ERS -5.5, over Tampa Bay. Ryan comment: The workmanlike efficiency is back, even if the offense isn’t quite.

* KANSAS CITY -4.5, over Raiders. Ryan comment: The Chiefs don’t make the kind of mistakes that would be the only way the Raiders stay in this game.

* BALTIMORE +6, over Detroit. Ryan comment: It’s basically playoff time for the Ravens. And nobody is better on the road in playoff time than the Ravens.

3. PURDY (last week 2-1, overall 22-18-2)/

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* 49ERS -5.5, over Tampa Bay. Purdy comment: It’s a good point spread number because this will be closer than most people think — but my hunch is that the Bucs, who have never seen Colin Kaepernick, will have a harder time with him than NFC West opponents.

* RAIDERS +4.5, over Kansas City. Purdy comment: Always risky to go with the Raiders and points because a quarterback could throw a pick six anytime. But Kansas City should bring out the best in the home team.