Five days ago, several polls (including a liberal one) reported that Romney’s favorability rating has surged past Obama’s:

And late Thursday, the Pew Research Center, the poll that has been toughest on Romney’s favorability, released results showing that Romney is ahead of Obama by a point, 50 percent to 49 percent. That is a stunning turnaround from March, when Obama’s favorable rating in Pew was about twice Romney’s, 55 percent to 29 percent.

Pundits from the mainstream media love to point out that rarely if ever does a presidential candidate get elected when their favorability number is below that of their opponent. Until this week, Obama’s rating has been higher than Romney’s all year long. What changed? Mr. Obama poured hundreds of millions of dollars into the media to paint Governor Romney in a negative light most of 2012. Then Americans got to know Mitt Romney, the man, starting with the first debate (see graph above). Both Romney and Obama experienced a dip in their ratings from last week’s intense debate of confrontation. I am guessing we will see a dramatic positive change for Governor Romney after Monday’s debate in which Obama employed sophomoric attacks against a calm, gentleman opponent.

“The debates — especially the first one — destroyed the Obama crew’s strategy of disqualification,” said Republican pollster Mike McKenna. “Six months of work and $400 million of ad buys went up in smoke in about 10 days. With less than 340 hours to go, they are having real trouble with their footing.”

The debates’ effect can be seen in the favorability ratings. At the end of September, ahead of the debates, Mr. Romney had a 44.5 percent favorable rating. But by Monday, when he and Mr. Obama faced off for the third and final time, the Republican’s rating had leapt to 50.5 percent.

Tom Jensen, director of Public Policy Polling, a Democratic firm, said Mr. Romney’s favorability surge “really has been remarkable” and explains why Mr. Obama has not been able to put away the race at this point.
[…]
By Tuesday, Mr. Romney’s favorability average at Real Clear Politics had dropped below 50 percent again, though he still leads Mr. Obama when it comes to net favorability — the calculation of favorable rating minus unfavorable rating.

Mr. Obama’s favorability averaged 49.7 percent, or 4.5 points more than his unfavorable rating. Mr. Romney’s favorability was 49.3 percent, or 6.5 points more than his unfavorable rating.
[…]
John Zogby, a pollster for The Washington Times, said Mr. Romney’s favorability surge is a significant development in the race.

“Voters got to see an option. Now that there is an option, Romney is viewed as favorably as Obama as a person,” he said.

[emphasis added]

Could it also be that America is finally seeing Barack Obama, the man, for who he really is? A person that allows his ego and pride to blind him from perceiving reality? Why is it that article after article from the Left and the Right frequently use words now such as arrogant, condescending, petulant, hubris, etc., when referring to Barack Obama? In his weekly WSJ column last week, William McGurn wrote an outstanding article titled, The Wizard of Obama. Excerpts:

Mostly this image was the making of his own immodesty, starting the night he clinched the 2008 Democratic nomination. Mr. Obama might have simply declared victory and congratulated Hillary Clinton on a valiant fight. Instead it became the backdrop for one of his more infamous egoisms. History, he said, would look back at his victory as the moment “the rise of the oceans began to slow and our planet began to heal.”

This was no aberration. A man who interviewed for a job on the campaign was told by Mr. Obama: “I think that I’m a better speechwriter than my speechwriters. I know more about policies on any particular issue than my policy directors. And I’ll tell you right now that I’m gonna think I’m a better political director than my political director.”

Everything about his campaign fed that idea. The Styrofoam Greek columns at the Democratic convention when he was nominated. The faux presidential seal with its own Latin motto. And before the campaign, the two books he authored about—himself.

The press, far from exhibiting any skepticism about this immodesty, bowed before it.
[…]
An editor at Politico (and veteran of the Washington Post) put it this way: “I have witnessed the phenomenon several times. Some reporters need to go through detox, to cure their swooning over Obama’s political skill.”
[…]
In short, Mr. Obama was the man who declared that he would change the thinking of the Muslim world by the mere fact of his election, restore science to its rightful place, and win what he called the “necessary war” in Afghanistan.

And then came this month’s debate in Denver.

That night, the American people watched “the smartest guy in the room” struggle to put together a simple declarative sentence, and then ask the moderator to move onto another topic after Mitt Romney had given a strong statement about jobs and growth and tax revenues.

Some 67 million Americans were watching on TV. What they saw was the scene from the Wizard of Oz, when Dorothy’s dog pulls back the curtain to reveal there is no wizard at all, just a man from the Midwest who pumped himself up into something far beyond his mortal self—and got the whole of Oz to believe it.

[emphasis added]

“The whole of Oz” now sees the little man who once stood tall behind his protective curtain. Or is it the emperor without clothes whose reign draws to a close?

Photo: Saul Loeb / AFP / Getty Images

American Values: “In God We Trust” — “Liberty” — “E Pluribus Unum”

Twitter Follow: @VicLundquist— Dedicated to all members of The United States military and their families

Looking back at the week, did you catch the Romney sons (minus Dr. Ben) on ‘Piers Morgan Tonight’? They were welcomed to Morgan’s television set the day before the second presidential debate, on Oct 15, 2012.

Besides asking about new brother, ‘Tugg’, Piers Morgan asked the four if they are considering what life might be like as the ‘First Family’. His cretinous slipping in of the term “irrational” in his question regarding the positive poll response for Governor Romney after his first presidential debate was… coyly CNN-ish.

The sons concurred that their father’s first presidential debate was a definite plus, and also added that once the vice-presidential pick was chosen, Congressman Paul Ryan, that’s when people began to really pay attention.

The response to how they might deal with being America’s First Family?

Craig Romney summed it up, “To borrow a sports cliche, we’re taking it one day at a time. We honestly are.”

Tagg, Josh, Matt, and Craig Romney were good-humored, entertaining, and are a credit to their parents and the campaign.

A couple of days before the Romney sons appeared on his program, liberal Morgan pierced the hearts of some of his fans by publishing an article giving a half-way endorsement for Romney. And, that’s beastly for Obama:

The great messianic tidal wave of optimism Obama swept in on has been replaced by harsh reality.

He promised Americans tremendous ‘hope’ and ‘change’ and, frankly, they don’t feel he’s given them much hope, or changed very much.
…
…[U]nemployment is still running at a scarily high 7.8 per cent, meaning 23 million Americans are out of work. Meanwhile, the country’s national debt has risen to a staggering $16 TRILLION, up $5 trillion from when Obama took over. Factor in a still severely deflated housing market, and petrol prices double what they were in 2008, and it all adds up to a pretty miserable economic picture.

That’s where Romney can win. His track record as a businessman is better than almost any presidential candidate ever. He also almost single-handedly turned round the fortunes of the Salt Lake City Winter Olympics in 2002, after the organising committee turned to him desperate for help.

While throwing a bone to his fans with the false Romney flip-flop meme (don’t cha know Obama evolves?), Morgan also added:

Should Romney now win on November 6, … America will also have elected the squeakiest-clean man ever to run for the presidency in any country in the world.

Yesterday, Gallup polling showed a virtual tie between the two candidates among female voters in battleground states:

Romney – 48%

Obama – 49%

Recent polling from Pew shows a tie with 47% of women preferring Romney and 47% for Obama.

What caused the dramatic change?

For the first time in this presidential campaign, 70 million Americans were able to see Romney WITHOUT MEDIA FILTER at the first presidential debate in Denver, Colorado. Women did not see the monster Obama and his minions have spent millions to portray. What they did see was someone who DID understand their worries and concerns. Romney related to them. They saw a true, competent, understanding leader with decisive plans to improve America, their lives, and with plans to stop the mountain of debt that will be foisted upon their children.

9:06PM EDT October 15, 2012 – WASHINGTON — Mitt Romney leads President Obama by four percentage points among likely voters in the nation’s top battlegrounds, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds, and he has growing enthusiasm among women to thank.

As the presidential campaign heads into its final weeks, the survey of voters in 12 crucial swing states finds female voters much more engaged in the election and increasingly concerned about the deficit and debt issues that favor Romney. The Republican nominee has pulled within one point of the president among women who are likely voters, 48%-49%, and leads by 8 points among men.

Team Obama today had a hissy fit out about left-leaning Gallup’s findings and tried to discredit the numbers. Richard Eichenberg, a Tufts University political scientist who is studying gender differences in state-level polling with Elizabeth Robinson, explains why:

“Romney’s improved standing among female voters is likely to cause major consternation among Obama supporters. If Mr. Romney has tied President Obama among women in swing states, then he has likely taken a step toward winning the election.”

(photographer unknown)

Obama’s false meme of a Republican War on Women? Romney has proven that FALSE. He cares deeply about the challenges women face and America’s children. Romney is closing the gender gap.

At tonight’s second presidential debate, expect to hear desperate droning from Obama on abortion and contraception.

Women are awakening to the fact Obama that Obama is stealing their children’s future. They are learning that Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan can pull America back from the brink and save the American Dream for their progeny.

24 days until the election…

Readers, I hope every single one of you are comMITTed to doing everything humanly possible to ensure a victory on November 6th for Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan. Earlier this week, MRC launched a comMITTedfinal-days push to help shine the spotlight on what more can be done in swing states.

Here’s today’s news from The Centennial State, the great western state of COLORADO…

September 23, 2012 – Mitt Romney is greeted by enthusiastic supporters as he takes the stage at a campaign rally in Denver, Colorado. Click on image to enlarge. (Photo – Brian Snyder/Reuters)

Colorado Springs Mayor Steve Bach wrote a guest column yesterday which was published in Colorado Springs’ The Gazette:

With only a few weeks left until election day, voters are finally tuning in to the presidential election and taking the time to learn about the vision each candidate has for our nation’s future. It’s a big choice indeed, and nowhere has that choice been made clearer than in the recent debates — including the one that took place in Colorado last week.

Barack Obama and Mitt Romney both came into the night with something to prove. President Obama needed to explain why his policies have not succeeded in turning around the economy, and why the voters should believe that he can accomplish in the next four years what he hasn’t accomplished in the last four. Romney also had a challenge. The American people take removing a sitting president very seriously, and if Romney wants our votes, he had to present a concrete plan to end this seemingly endless economic downturn and get Americans back to work.

As it turns out, that night was a microcosm of everything that has been wrong with the Obama presidency. President Obama was inconsistent and unfocused. He was high on rhetoric and low on specifics. He had little in the way of plans, and little in the way of explanation for why his policies haven’t worked over the last four years. And time and time again, President Obama’s platitudes were empty and lacking in substance.

The President wants to create jobs. That’s terrific. But he didn’t provide a plan to lower Colorado Springs’ 9.5 percent unemployment rate besides more taxes and more government spending we can’t afford.Romney provided a very different take. If you want to help business, you need to reduce costs for those businesses. Mitt Romney has explained several ways he will do that. He will cut the cost of energy by opening up the incalculable resources we have here in America. We are in the midst of a natural gas revolution. Untapped oil resources are off our shores and waiting in Canada for the completion of the Keystone Pipeline. We need to explore those resources in an environmentally sound way that will produce millions of jobs and pump billions into our economy.

Governor Romney also told us how he will reduce burdensome regulations — including Obamacare — that add thousands upon thousands of dollars of costs on top of businesses, killing jobs and crushing growth. He’ll cut taxes on small businesses, allowing them to reinvest in their enterprises. He will put creating jobs for the American people first. That will be his priority. That will be his legacy.

In contrast, President Obama’s policies have slowed our economy’s recovery, and his reckless spending habits have saddled our children and grandchildren with another $5.5 trillion in debt. A second term will send our national debt soaring to $20 trillion. Meanwhile, the only part of the budget President Obama seems all too willing to cut has been funding for defense and for our military, threatening some 20,000 Colorado jobs.

There was a moment that night in Denver that was particularly telling. The candidates were given a question about their theory of the role of government. President Obama began, giving a rambling answer about government programs and the new spending he thought the country needed to get back on track.

Governor Romney turned and pointed to the words on the wall behind him. They were from the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution. Then he talked about America. He talked about dreams and goals deferred in a nation that is thirsting for a real recovery, one that lets them pursue happiness in their own way. In that moment, we weren’t watching another politician or a bureaucrat.

We were watching a president.

(emphasis added)

Remember the raging wildfires in Colorado this summer? Mayor Steve Bach is pictured speaking to the news media near the site of the Waldo Canyon fire on June 28, 2012 in Colorado Springs. (photographer unknown)

The Hill’s Jonathan Easley today summarizes the poll tightening effect Governor Romney’s overwhelming debate victory is having on battleground states. Here’s what he writes about Colorado:

Why do Obama’s promises seem so familiar? Because they’re the same “tired old rhetoric” he used back in 2008. Will we learn he doesn’t have the ability to keep his promises? Or are you ready for Obama Part II: weakening image abroad, Obamacare unrepealed, a 5-4 liberal advantage on the Supreme Court and a president unprepared to lead and unaccountable to the people?

You know the old adage? The one that goes something like, “Opinions are like belly buttons . . . everyone has one.” Political junkies, like those of us that contribute to MRC, read a lot of political “chaff” in our efforts to find content we hope will enlighten and inspire. What I have found is that pundits and writers, by their very nature, are compelled to give their opinion one way or the other. And everyone wants to be a critic, even those that want Governor Romney to be president. Most of their content is frankly chaff, even when sailing is smooth.

I have found Karl Rove’s intellect, political insight, and experience to be a steady light in the tumultuous world of politics. For me, his humor also delivers his message with a certain immutable confidence and credibility. Excerpts from this week’s editorial:

It’s over. Gov. Mitt Romney’s statements last week about the storming of the U.S. Embassy in Cairo, followed by the release this week of a video of Mr. Romney at a May fundraiser, have brought the 2012 election to an early end.

At least that is what you’d take away from some pundits. But this is a classic example of the commentariat investing moments with more meaning than they deserve.

Mr. Romney’s comments about Americans who don’t pay taxes were, as he admitted during a Monday press conference, “inelegant.” But every campaign has its awkward moments that the media magnify. Mr. Obama had his after saying on July 13, “You didn’t build that.” For a while thereafter, Team Obama could do little right. Then it passed.

This moment, too, will pass for Mr. Romney. More important, the past week’s events have not significantly altered the contours of the race. A month ago, Gallup had Mr. Obama at 45% and Mr. Romney at 47%. On Wednesday, Gallup reported 47% for Obama, 46% for Romney. A month ago Rasmussen said it was 45% for Mr. Obama, 43% for Mr. Romney. In its Wednesday poll, Rasmussen reported 46% for Obama, 47% for Romney.

Presidential races can look one way now but much differently on Election Day. In mid-September 1980, President Jimmy Carter led Ronald Reagan 44% to 40% in the Gallup poll. By late October, Reagan had slumped to 39% in Gallup, while Mr. Carter had risen to 47%. Reagan won by nine points.

As for the here-and-now, one key number to watch is Mr. Obama’s vote share. In the past month, there have been 83 national polls and daily tracking surveys. Mr. Obama reached 50% in just nine and his average was 47%. That is bad news for an incumbent when attitudes about the No. 1 issue—the economy—are decidedly sour.

This isn’t to suggest the Romney campaign doesn’t have big challenges. But both camps do.

In the two weeks before the presidential debates begin, Mr. Romney must define more clearly what he would do as president. In spelling out his five-point plan for the middle class, he’ll have to deepen awareness of how each element would help families in concrete, practical ways, and offer optimism for renewed prosperity.

Mr. Romney and his team (and supporters) must also steel themselves for more brutal attacks. The Florida fundraising video will not likely be the last surprise. The Romney campaign has largely refused to respond to attacks as a waste of time and resources. But in politics, sometimes the counter punch is stronger than the punch.

There’s little tolerance among Republican donors, activists and talking heads for more statements by Mr. Romney that the media can depict as gaffes. But concerns about avoiding missteps must not cause Mr. Romney to favor cautious and bland. To win, he’ll need to be bold and forceful as he offers a compelling agenda of conservative reform.

Mr. Obama’s challenges may be more daunting. His strategy hasn’t worked. Team Obama planned to use its big financial edge to bury Mr. Romney under negative ads over the summer. From April 15 to Labor Day, they spent an estimated $215 million on TV. But this was more than offset by conservative groups (principally American Crossroads, which I helped found). While Mr. Obama drained his coffers his own negatives climbed, and Mr. Romney partially repaired his image with voters.

Mr. Obama needs a different strategy, but his team seems stubbornly focused merely on disqualifying Mitt Romney by whatever argument or means necessary. Yet as Rahm Emanuel has repeated for most of the year, Mr. Obama must, as he put it on NBC’s “Meet the Press” on Sept. 2, “lay out an agenda and a clear vision of the next four years” or he’ll lose.
[…]
The campaign’s next likely inflection point will be the debates, which start Oct. 3. Both candidates will be under intense pressure.
[…]
[emphasis added]

Obama’s convention bounce has now disappeared despite Obama spending over twice the money Romney did on ads during the convention. The presidential race is back to a dead heat. Here are a few of today’s best polls.

Only in the increasingly bizarre world of Manhattan-Beltway elite media is the tale of two speeches at the GOP convention big news as the Middle East slides towards war in no small measure brought about by American weakness. (Here is the short form, btw: Romney advisor Stevens ordered up a speech from very smart guy Pete Wehner. Romney, per usual, decided to write his own, demonstrating again a seriousness that POTUS does not have as well as a talent that totally eludes the president.)

The polls have already turned in the wake of the atrocity and disasters last week. MSM remains a good ten days behind any real news curve, but the voters are not behind that curve. That’s the story: A failing, flailing president whose designated spokesperson for the weekend had to declare “We are not impotent.”

There is a lot of talk in the press about Obama’s post-convention bounce, but perhaps the most overlooked development of the last few days is that Romney, for the first time in the election, has taken the lead in the crucial swing state of Virginia.

Obama won Virginia in 2008 by over 6 percentage points despite its traditionally “red” leanings in the past. But with Virginia moving Romney’s direction, it represents a major development for the presidential campaign.

Virginia is just the latest in a string of swing states that continue to move in Romney’s direction. In particular, Arizona was once thought to be a competitive state for Obama, but has moved firmly into Romney’s column over the last few months.

Other important swing states that keep moving Romney’s direction are Missouri, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Iowa. Missouri currently shows Romney with a 6 point lead. And North Carolina, the state where Obama’s convention was held, also shows continued momentum for Romney where Romney is up by over 3 points. All of these swing states illustrate the precarious and dangerous environment Obama finds himself in.

So while Obama is undergoing a temporary bounce from his convention, I am reminded of the Republican Primary where competitors rose and fell with great regularity, some in dramatic fashion. Romney knows how to ride out a temporary bump in the polls. And Obama’s bump will be no different.