The United States public debt as a percentage of GDP reached its highest level during Harry Truman's first presidential term, during and after World War II. Public debt as a percentage of GDP fell rapidly in the post-World War II period, and reached a low in 1973 under President Richard Nixon. Debt as a share of GDP has consistently increased since then, except during the terms of presidents Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton. Public debt rose during the 1980s, as President Reagan cut tax rates and increased military spending. It fell during the 1990s, due to decreased military spending, increased taxes and the 1990s boom. Public debt rose sharply in the wake of the 2007–08 financial crisis and the resulting significant tax revenue declines and spending increases.

Except for about a year during 1835–1836, the United States has continuously had a fluctuating public debt since its Constitution went into effect on March 4, 1789. During the American Revolution, the Continental Congress, under the Articles of Confederation, amassed huge war debts, but lacked the power to repay these obligations through taxation or duties on imports.[1][2]

On the founding of the United States, the financial affairs of the new federation were in disarray, exacerbated by an economic crisis in urban commercial centers.[3] In 1790, Secretary of the Treasury Alexander Hamilton pushed for Congress to pass a financial plan, called the First Report on the Public Credit,[4] a controversial part of which involved the federal government assuming state debts incurred during the Revolutionary War.[5] Northern states had accumulated a huge amount of debt during the war, amounting to $21.5 million, and wanted the federal government to assume their burden. The Southern states, which had lower or no debts, whose citizens would effectively pay a portion of this debt if the federal government assumed it, were disinclined to accept the proposal. Some states, including Virginia, had already paid off almost half of their debts, and felt that their taxpayers should not be assessed again to bail out the less provident, and further argued that the plan was beyond the constitutional power of the new government. James Madison, then a representative from Virginia, led a group of legislators from the South in blocking the provision and prevent the plan from gaining approval. Jefferson supported Madison[6] The plan was finally adopted as part of the Compromise of 1790, as the Funding Act of 1790. The compromise meant that the state debts were all picked up by the federal Treasury, and the permanent national capital would be located in the South, along the Virginia-Maryland border in what became the District of Colombia.

Historian Max M. Edling has explained how assumption worked. It was the critical issue; the location of the capital was a bargaining ploy. Hamilton proposed that the federal Treasury take over and pay off the all the debt that states had incurred to pay for the American Revolution. The Treasury would issue bonds that rich people would buy, thereby giving the rich a tangible stake in the success of the national government. Hamilton proposed to pay off the new bonds with revenue from a new tariff on imports. Jefferson originally approved the scheme, but Madison had turned him around by arguing that federal control of debt would consolidate too much power in the national government. Edling points out that after its passage in 1790, the assumption was accepted. Madison did try to pay speculators below 100%, but they were paid the face value of the state debts they held regardless of how little they paid for them. When Jefferson became president he continued the system. The credit of the U.S. was solidly established at home and abroad, and Hamilton was successful in signing up many of the bondholders in his new Federalist Party. Good credit allowed Jefferson's Treasury Secretary Albert Gallatin to borrow in Europe to finance the Louisiana Purchase in 1803, as well as to borrow to finance the War of 1812.[7]

The Southern states extracted a major concession from Hamilton in the recalculation of their debt under the fiscal plan.[8] For example, in the case of Virginia, a zero-sum arrangement was contrived, in which Virginia paid $3.4 million to the federal government, and received exactly that amount in federal compensation.[9] The revision of Virginia’s debt, coupled with Potomac residence issue, ultimately netted it over $13 million.[10] Another result of federal assumption of state debts was to give the federal government much more power by placing the country's most serious financial obligation in the hands of the federal government rather than the state governments. The federal government was able to avoid competing in interest with the States.

The debts of the federal government on January 1, 1791 amounted to $75,463,476.52, of which about $40 million was domestic debt, $12 million was foreign debt, and $18.3 million were state debts assumed by the federal government, of the $21.5 million that had been authorized.[11]

To reduce the debt, from 1796 to 1811 there were 14 budget surpluses and 2 deficits. There was a sharp increase in the debt as a result of the War of 1812. In the 20 years following that war, there were 18 surpluses. The United States actually paid off its debt entirely in January 1835, only to begin accruing debt anew by 1836 (the debt on January 1, 1836 was $37,000).[12][13]

Another sharp increase in the debt occurred as a result of the Civil War. The debt was just $65 million in 1860, but passed $1 billion in 1863 and reached $2.7 billion by the end of the war. During the following 47 years, there were 36 surpluses and 11 deficits. During this period 55% of the national debt was paid off.

Debt increased again during World War I (1914–1918), reaching $25.5 billion at its conclusion. Approximately $17 billion in debt was raised through the selling of Liberty Bonds to the general public to finance the U.S.'s military effort. The war was followed by 11 consecutive surpluses that saw the debt reduced by 36% by the end of the 1920s.[14]

Warren G. Harding was elected president in 1920 and believed the federal government should be fiscally managed in a way similar to private sector businesses. He had campaigned in 1920 on the slogan, "Less government in business and more business in government."[15] Under Harding, federal spending declined from $6.3 billion in 1920 to $5 billion in 1921 and $3.3 billion in 1922. Over the course of the 1920s, under the leadership of Calvin Coolidge, the national debt was reduced by one third.[16] The decrease was even greater when the growth in GDP and inflation is taken into account.

Debt held by the public was $15.05 billion or 16.5% of GDP in 1930. When Franklin D. Roosevelt took office in 1933, the public debt was almost $20 billion, 20% of GDP. Decreased tax revenues and spending on social programs during the Great Depression increased the debt and by 1936, the public debt had increased to $33.7 billion, approximately 40% of GDP.[17] During its first term, the Roosevelt administration ran large annual deficits of between 2 and 5% of GDP. By 1939, the debt held by the public had increased to $39.65 billion or 43% of GDP. The buildup and involvement in World War II during the presidencies of F.D. Roosevelt and Harry S. Truman led to the largest increase in public debt. Public debt rose over 100% of GDP to pay for the mobilization before and during the war. Public debt was $251.43 billion or 112% of GDP at the conclusion of the war in 1945 and was $260 billion in 1950.

U.S. federal debt held by the public as a percentage of GDP, from 1940 to 2012.

The public debt fell rapidly after the end of World War II under the presidency of Harry S. Truman, as the U.S. and the rest of the world experienced a post-war economic expansion. Unlike previous wars, the Korean War (1950–53) was largely financed by taxation and did not lead to an increase in the public debt.[18]

Growth rates in Western countries began to slow in the mid-1960s. Beginning in the mid-1970s and afterwards, U.S. national debt began to increase faster than GDP.[19][20]

The public debt reached a post-World War II low of 24.6% in 1974.[14][21] In that year, the Congressional Budget and Impoundment Control Act of 1974 reformed the budget process to allow Congress to challenge the president's budget more easily, and, as a consequence, deficits became increasingly difficult to control.[22] National debt held by the public increased from its postwar low of 24.6% of GDP in 1974 to 26.2% in 1980.[23]

Debt held by the public relative to GDP rose rapidly again in the 1980s. President Ronald Reagan's economic policies lowered tax rates (Reagan slashed the top income tax rate from 70% to 28%, although bills passed in 1982 and 1984 later partially reversed those tax cuts.)[22][24] and increased military spending, while congressional Democrats blocked cuts to social programs.[20][22][24][25] As a result, debt as a share of GDP increased from 26.2% in 1980 to 40.9% in 1988,[23] and it continued to rise during the presidency of George H. W. Bush, reaching 48.3% of GDP in 1992.[14][26]

US Federal Debt as Percent of GDP since World War II, with presidential terms marked.

Debt held by the public reached a high of 49.5% of GDP at the beginning of President Clinton's first term. However, it fell to 34.5% of GDP by the end of Clinton's presidency due in part to decreased military spending, increased taxes (in 1990, 1993 and 1997), and increased tax revenue resulting from the 1990s boom.[14][21][27][28][29] The budget controls instituted in the 1990s successfully restrained fiscal action by the Congress and the President and together with economic growth contributed to the budget surpluses at the end of the decade.[30] The surpluses led to a decline in the public debt from about 43% of GDP in 1998 to about 33% by 2001.[30]

In the early 21st century, debt held by the public relative to GDP rose again due in part to the Bush tax cuts and increased military spending caused by the wars in the Middle East and a new entitlement Medicare D program. During the presidency of George W. Bush, debt held by the public increased from $3.339 trillion in September 2001 to $6.369 trillion by the end of 2008.[31][32] In the aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2007–08 and related significant revenue declines and spending increases, debt held by the public increased to $11.917 trillion by the end of July 2013, under the presidency of Barack Obama.[31][33]

Time series of U.S. public debt overlaid with party affiliation of the President. The upper graph shows the U.S. public debt in trillions of dollars while the lower graph shows the U.S. public debt as a percentage of GDP. (Data are from the 2009 U.S. Budget.)

The President proposes a national budget to Congress, which has the final say over the document, but which rarely appropriates more than what the President requests.[36]

According to the Congressional Budget Office, the United States last had a budget surplus during fiscal year 2001. From fiscal years 2001 to 2009, spending increased by 6.5% of gross domestic product (from 18.2% to 24.7%) while taxes declined by 4.7% of GDP (from 19.5% to 14.8%). Spending increases (expressed as percentage of GDP) were in the following areas: Medicare and Medicaid (1.7%), defense (1.6%), income security such as unemployment benefits and food stamps (1.4%), Social Security (0.6%) and all other categories (1.2%). Revenue reductions were individual income taxes (−3.3%), payroll taxes (−0.5%), corporate income taxes (−0.5%) and other (−0.4%).

The 2009 spending level was the highest relative to GDP in 40 years, while the tax receipts were the lowest relative to GDP in 40 years. The next highest spending year was 1985 (22.8%), while the next lowest tax year was 2004 (16.1%).[45]

Cause of change between CBO's 2001 projection of a $5.6 trillion surplus between 2002–2012 and the $6.1 trillion debt increase that actually occurred.

In June 2012, the Congressional Budget Office summarized the cause of change between its January 2001 estimate of a $5.6 trillion cumulative surplus between 2002 and 2011 and the actual $6.1 trillion cumulative deficit that occurred, an unfavorable "turnaround" or debt increase of $11.7 trillion. Tax rate cuts and slower-than-expected growth reduced revenues by $6.1 trillion and spending was $5.6 trillion higher. Of this total, the CBO attributes 72% to legislated tax rate cuts and spending increases and 27% to economic and technical factors. Of the latter, 56% occurred from 2009 to 2011.[46][47]

The difference between the projected and actual debt in 2011, the budget office said, could be attributed largely to:

The U.S. budget situation has deteriorated significantly since 2001, when the CBO forecast average annual surpluses of approximately $850 billion from 2009–2012. The average deficit forecast in each of those years as of June 2009 was approximately $1,215 billion. The New York Times analyzed this roughly $2 trillion "swing", separating the causes into four major categories along with their share:

Recessions or the business cycle (37%);

Policies enacted by President Bush (33%);

Policies enacted by President Bush and supported or extended by President Obama (20%); and

New policies from President Obama (10%).

Several other articles and experts explained the causes of change in the debt position.[48][49][50]

In October 2009, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) gave the reasons for the higher budget deficit in 2009 ($1,410 billion, i.e. $1.41 trillion) over that of 2008 ($460 billion). The major changes included: declines in tax receipt of $320 billion due to the effects of the recession and another $100 billion due to tax rate cuts in the stimulus bill (the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act or ARRA); $245 billion for the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) and other bailout efforts; $100 billion in additional spending for ARRA; and another $185 billion due to increases in primary budget categories such as Medicare, Medicaid, unemployment insurance, Social Security, and Defense – including the war effort in Afghanistan and Iraq. This was the highest budget deficit relative to GDP (9.9%) since 1945.[51] The national debt increased by $1.9 trillion during FY2009, versus the $1.0 trillion increase during 2008.[52]

The Obama Administration also made four significant accounting changes to more accurately report the total spending by the federal government. The four changes were:

accounting for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan ("overseas military contingencies") in the budget rather than through the use of supplemental appropriations;

assuming the Alternative Minimum Tax will be indexed for inflation;

accounting for the full costs of Medicare reimbursements; and

anticipating the inevitable expenditures for natural disaster relief.

According to administration officials, these changes will make the debt over ten years look $2.7 trillion larger than it would otherwise appear.[53]

This table lists the U.S. federal debt as a percentage of gross domestic product, or GDP, each year since World War II.[54] The gross federal debt shown below reached 102.7% of GDP at the end of 2012, the most recent figure available; it was the highest percentage since 1945 and the first yearly percentage figure to go over 100% since then. (The gross federal debt in the table includes intra-government debt – that is, money owed by one branch of the federal government to another. When this latter amount is subtracted, the remaining quantity is known as the public debt.)

U.S. debt from 1940 to 2011. Red lines indicate the "debt held by the public" and black lines indicate the total national debt or gross public debt. The difference is the "intragovernmental debt", which includes obligations to government programs such as Social Security. The top panel shows debt deflated to 2010 dollars; the second panel shows debt as a percentage of GDP.

The table below shows annual federal spending, gross federal debt and gross domestic product for specific fiscal years.[57] The government fiscal year runs from October 1 of the previous calendar year to September 30 of the year shown.

^Brad DeLong (November 20, 2009). "Comparing Debt-to-GDP Ratios with Presidential Terms". Seeking Alpha. Retrieved 2010-08-09. contrast between the Democrats and the old-style Republicans (Eisenhower and Nixon) on the one hand and the new-style Republicans on the other is quite striking.