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With all of the threads about WR competition, RB signings, potential use of FBs, 3rd and 4th TEs, etc., one thing is clear: the Pats have signed a ton of skill players this offseason, but they will have to be selective in paring down the final roster and figuring out which players to keep and what kind of an offense they want to run. I came across this article from Football Outsiders which came out just before the Super Bowl - after it was announced that Bill O'Brien was leaving and after Josh McDaniels was re-hired, but before FA and the draft. As far as I can tell, it hasn't been discussed on this site yet - as with the thread on the evolution of the defense, my apologies if I'm re-treading old ground. Since the article is Insider content, I'm posting most (but not all) of it:

The departure of New England Patriots offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien immediately thereafter means that the Pats' offense will be entering a period of transition this offseason. What makes this transition particularly fascinating is that after O'Brien (and Bill Belichick) spent the past three years gradually overhauling a record-setting offense installed by Josh McDaniels, it will be McDaniels himself who takes over as O'Brien's successor. In this way, perhaps "retrofit" is a better word choice here than "transition." The amount of retrofitting, and the extent to which retrofitting is successful, will go a long way toward determining New England's Super Bowl chances next season and beyond.

Let's begin with a history lesson. In 2007, McDaniels' second season as New England's offensive coordinator, the Patriots lined up with three or more wide receivers 72 percent of the time, which was the second-most in the NFL. In 2008, they ranked third at 70 percent. During McDaniels' brief tenure as head coach in Denver, the Broncos ranked seventh in three-or-more-wide frequency both seasons. Finally, this season, with McDaniels serving as offensive coordinator in St. Louis, the Rams used three or more wide receivers 69 percent of the time. To state the obvious, then, McDaniels has an affinity for overloading formations with wide receivers.

Almost immediately upon McDaniels' departure, New England began the process of shifting away from multiple-receiver sets, and toward greater use of multiple-tight end formations.After using two or more tight ends only 26 percent of the time in 2008, the past three seasons have seen a gradual increase over time: 34 percent in 2009, 47 percent in 2010 and 50 percent in 2011. (We mark a player as a tight end if he is lined up as a tight end or in the slot, but not if he is lined up in the backfield or wide outside the numbers. So the use of the tight ends as personnel might be greater than our percentages indicate.)

For most NFL teams, using two or more tight ends is a running formation. Anyone who has watched them over the past two seasons knows this hasn't been the case with the Patriots. Despite using more tight ends under O'Brien, the Patriots' overall run-pass ratio hardly diverged from McDaniels' last two seasons as offensive coordinator: 40 percent in 2007, 45 percent run in 2008, 41 percent in 2009, 44 percent in 2010 and 39 percent in 2011.

This is because what has diverged under O'Brien is the frequency with which New England throws out of two-or-more-tight end formations. In 2008, the Patriots did so only 18 percent of the time. Back then, they were like most teams, for which it's a heavy run formation. However, that frequency increased to 29 percent in 2009, then to 47 percent in 2010 and finally to 57 percent this season.

Based on the above, Football Outsiders' game-charting tendencies paint a clear picture of New England's transition from McDaniels to O'Brien. Perhaps because of losing Donte' Stallworth and Jabar Gaffney, they made a conscious decision in 2009 to start using more tight ends, but not in the typical run-formation sense. Unfortunately, this shift was attenuated by the fact that the tight ends on their roster were Ben Watson, Chris Baker and Michael Matthews, a trio that didn't quite strike fear into the hearts of opposing defenses. To remedy this, they drafted Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez in 2010, fully implemented the two-tight end passing offense and watched their plan come to fruition over the past two seasons, ultimately resulting in a Super Bowl appearance Sunday.

That's the history. What the future holds depends on how things change -- if at all -- under McDaniels.

There are basically only three options. First, although it flies in the face of his career as an offensive coordinator, McDaniels could keep the two-tight-end passing offense as it currently exists. Second, he could attempt a complete overhaul and return the Patriots to a three-wide base offense. Third, he could attempt a retrofit, i.e., keeping the basic two-tight end structure in place, but incorporating some three-wide elements of Patriots offenses past. Let's examine these one at a time.

Seeing as how, on both offense and defense, Belichick tends to base his schemes on the available personnel, it seems unlikely we'll see a complete return to three-wide under McDaniels because of the players he has at his disposal. After all, when wishes like Gronkowski and Hernandez are granted, it's difficult -- and borderline insane -- to try to put the genie back in the bottle. According to Football Outsiders' DYAR measure of total player value, Gronkowski ranked first among tight ends, and Hernandez ranked seventh. That's a lot of value to ignore simply based on philosophical stubbornness.

At the same time, however, outside of Wes Welker, who ranked third in DYAR this season, the New England receiving corps is underwhelming to say the least. Only one other Patriots receiver was targeted enough times to qualify for our rankings, and that receiver, Deion Branch, ranked 39th, and will be hitting the market as an unrestricted free agent. After Branch, the only other Patriots receiver with 10 or more targets was Chad Ochocinco, and we all know how that experiment went this year. At a certain point, teams are going to figure out how to defend the middle of the field against Gronkowski, Hernandez and Welker. Therefore, although it's tempting to be content with their current success, keeping the offense as is also isn't likely to happen.

Rather, what's most likely is the third option: McDaniels keeps the two-tight end base offense, but adds in more spread formations to keep defenses honest. This can manifest itself in a couple of ways. From a formation perspective, perhaps the easiest thing to do -- and I'd bet on it -- would be to line Hernandez up as an outside receiver even more often than he does already. This season, he did so about 12 percent of the time, which was nearly six times as often as Gronkowski. On such plays, the Patriots had a 64 percent offensive success rate, so increasing the frequency to 15 or 20 percent could pay dividends without massively overhauling the underlying system.

From a personnel perspective, this offseason figures to have one of the best wide receiver markets in recent memory, so improving their wide receiving corps is another way to modestly implement more three-wide sets. The receiver New England will likely set its sights on is Lloyd, who has publicly expressed his desire to follow McDaniels wherever he ends up.

No matter the coordinator, New England has ranked in the top eight of DVOA every season since 2004. So whichever way McDaniels' latest tenure in New England goes, the Patriots will almost certainly remain an elite offense as long as Tom Brady is healthy.

Nevertheless, the path that's most likely to put the Patriots back in the Super Bowl over the next few seasons involves keeping the current offensive scheme in place, but tweaking it by using Hernandez more as a wide receiver and signing Lloyd to further improve their outside passing game.

It's a pretty simplistic analysis. And the Pats did indeed sign Brandon Lloyd in the offseason. But if all they were trying to do was achieve what the FO article suggests, then I'm not sure about why they did the following:

- Signed RB Joseph Addai. Depth or injury injurance for Vereen/Ridley, or does it signal more of an involvement of the running game.
- Signed FBs Tony Fiammetta and Spencer Larsen.
- Signed Jabar Gaffney, Donte Stallworth and Anthony Gonzalez in addition to Lloyd.
- Added TE Daniel Fells.

I'm not sure what BB and Josh McDaniels are ultimately going to be cooking on offense. But it seems more elaborate than just tweaking the spread offense to use the TEs with Hernandez lining up at WR more often.

How do people think the offense will evolve? Will Josh McD go back to the spread? Will he keep the offense basically as is but tweak it a bit with more of an outside threat? Or will the offense be something different from either 2007-2009 or 2010-2011?

I think its almost certain that the offense will change somewhat this year, be it because of the change to McDaniels, the change in personnel or both. How those changes will materialize almost certainly depends on how the roster shakes out. There were a number of talented players brought in at WR,TE,RB and FB but not all are going to stick. I see McDaniels experimenting with personnel and grouping quite a bit to see what works best. I also think much of that experimentation will be focused on running the ball and running out of passing sets.

All that being said, I think the biggest determining factor to where the offense evolves as the oline. Nate Solder is going to have a big part in this. Vollmer on the other side needs to return to health. If those two can't be depended on to pass protect consistently than all these elaborate groupings go out the window as TE will need to be left in to block more often.

The difference from last year will be this: 1) We now have 3 decent receivers 2) We wont necessarily run more but, when we run on 1st and 10(like we always do) it wont always be 2 and 9 like it was last several years. Lawfirm was as undynamic a back as has ever played. I was pining for Marion Butts and one yard Dupard half the time. But he never fumbles!!!! Yeah you cant fumble with your knee on the ground

New England's transition from the 3 receiver set to the 2 TE set probably has a lot more to do with losing Moss and gaining Hernandez/Gronk than it does the OC position.

I'll expect McDaniels to use his best players in a manner that positions them for success. This time around it will be the 2TE set.

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I think you raise a very good point. I voted for choice #3 because I'd like to see the RBs involved more in the offense and more of a "too many weapons to cover" approach like the Saints use. But I doubt that BB and Josh McD know exactly what they are going to do until they see how the personnel evolve, and they're just getting their first glimpse of a lot of new bodies. If, for example, Shane Vereen develops and becomes a legitimate multi-purpose running-receiving threat and Stephen Ridley takes the next step in his development, then I think there's a good chance that they will involve them more - just as they recognized in 2010 what Gronk and Hernandez brought as rookies, which allowed them to move away from a Moss-Welker dominated approach. But if they don't, there are enough other options to move in different directions. Player development and injuries will play a big factor - if one of the TEs gets hurt then I could see the offense reverted to more of a 2007-2009 spread approach. If the WRs develo and the RBs don't then I could see the offense going to more of a fusion of 2007-2009 with 2010-2011.

I believe Josh will be using screens more than BOB did as an extension of the running game. Having 2 blocking TE's plus AHern on the field with a RB/FB and a WR like Lloyd will pose some problems for any defense. Run or pass?

Gronk block or up the seam?...Lloyd down sideline or blocking? AHern in slot or fake end around? RB/FB block, run or screen? Fells block or pass? ( Substitute Fells at TE for another WR for even more options)

This could be a historically high scoring Offense....and with an improved (even slightly) Defense, the Patriots could be very tough to beat if they can stay healthy.

I hate to play the obvious card but it will be the most diverse offense we've ever seen.

With 5 non OL/QB available :

3 TE/2 RB we can do that easily.
2 TE/2 2 WR/1 RB this should be the "base" with Welker and Lloyd at WR.
2 TE/3 WR add Gaffney to the WR.
2 TE/3 WR "stretch the field", how about Lloyd, Stallworth, Gaffney to give Welker a breather.
*1 TE/4 WR, Hernandez, Welker, Lloyd, Gaffney, Stallworth.
*1 TE/3 WR/1RB, Hernandez, Welker, Lloyd, Gaffney or Stallworth and a RB
and it goes on and on.

I expect a ton of personnel packages.

Last year we had no 3rd TE now we have the decent Fells.

Last year Branch was our #2 WR and, I guess, Underwood was #3. Now Lloyd will be #2, Gaffney #3, Stallworth will get his packages, Branch should be a good backup all over.

(note, # refer to how many catches I expect, we won't have a true #1, #2, #3 just packages).

Bottom line, we were very limited last year with no third TE and no real WR after Welker and a gimpy Branch. Now we have a third TE plus Lloyd, Gaffney, Stallworth.

The X Factor is the RB like others have said. Although I realized it wouldn't happen I said before the draft that a huge trade up for Richardson might make this the first truly unstoppable offense ever. Imagine the TE, the WR and also having to stop Richardson. Now, Ridley, Vereen, etc, won't be Richardson who is a true stud. But with what we'll be throwing out there ar WR and TE, if the RB should have very easy pickings if they're as good as I think they can be.

Lastly - why the * next to the bottom 2 packages ? If we had the current personnel last year we could have played those package in the SB without Gronk. Imagine that we have that group WITHOUT Gronk.

I hate to play the obvious card but it will be the most diverse offense we've ever seen.

With 5 non OL/QB available :

3 TE/2 RB we can do that easily.
2 TE/2 2 WR/1 RB this should be the "base" with Welker and Lloyd at WR.
2 TE/3 WR add Gaffney to the WR.
2 TE/3 WR "stretch the field", how about Lloyd, Stallworth, Gaffney to give Welker a breather.
*1 TE/4 WR, Hernandez, Welker, Lloyd, Gaffney, Stallworth.
*1 TE/3 WR/1RB, Hernandez, Welker, Lloyd, Gaffney or Stallworth and a RB
and it goes on and on.

I expect a ton of personnel packages.

Last year we had no 3rd TE now we have the decent Fells.

Last year Branch was our #2 WR and, I guess, Underwood was #3. Now Lloyd will be #2, Gaffney #3, Stallworth will get his packages, Branch should be a good backup all over.

(note, # refer to how many catches I expect, we won't have a true #1, #2, #3 just packages).

Bottom line, we were very limited last year with no third TE and no real WR after Welker and a gimpy Branch. Now we have a third TE plus Lloyd, Gaffney, Stallworth.

The X Factor is the RB like others have said. Although I realized it wouldn't happen I said before the draft that a huge trade up for Richardson might make this the first truly unstoppable offense ever. Imagine the TE, the WR and also having to stop Richardson. Now, Ridley, Vereen, etc, won't be Richardson who is a true stud. But with what we'll be throwing out there ar WR and TE, if the RB should have very easy pickings if they're as good as I think they can be.

Lastly - why the * next to the bottom 2 packages ? If we had the current personnel last year we could have played those package in the SB without Gronk. Imagine that we have that group WITHOUT Gronk.

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Ding, ding, ding...we have a winner.

About the only thing that can be determined is the personnel should be there to force a defense to defend every inch of the field.

Also just wait for the 22 personnel (2 TE, 2 RB) with just Welker or Lloyd at WR. Defense brings in a run package only to see Vereen and Hernandez split out as WR. Pick your poison there - play the big defense we split them out and throw. Play the throw and we have the big personnel in there. I have to sound like a euphoric little girl but the options Josh has are limited only by his imagination and he's never lacked for that.

Also just wait for the 22 personnel (2 TE, 2 RB) with just Welker or Lloyd at WR. Defense brings in a run package only to see Vereen and Hernandez split out as WR. Pick your poison there - play the big defense we split them out and throw. Play the throw and we have the big personnel in there. I have to sound like a euphoric little girl but the options Josh has are limited only by his imagination and he's never lacked for that.

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I can't wait to see this. If Vereen and Ridley develop it will dramatically transform the offense.

In 2011, we were limited without a #3 WR and a #3 TE. We need the functionality that these players provide, as well as the depth provided. We will now have a solid #4 receiver in case of injury (and perhaps even a 5th).

We will also have more flexibility with the RB's and FB. Sending 4 receivers out (including TE's) is fine, as long as someone is able to be in the backfield as an outlet and to protect Brady. We will also have more options in short yardage having a fullback and havind Addai. We will also see what Josh has in store for Ridley. Obviously, Vareen is a total unknown, but he could move Woodhead to the inactive list.

The difficulty will be in deciding which skill players to have active.

BOTTOM LINE
Belichick has used free agency to give Josh and Brady much needed additional tools. Let the fun begin!

I hate to play the obvious card but it will be the most diverse offense we've ever seen.

With 5 non OL/QB available :

3 TE/2 RB we can do that easily.
2 TE/2 2 WR/1 RB this should be the "base" with Welker and Lloyd at WR.
2 TE/3 WR add Gaffney to the WR.
2 TE/3 WR "stretch the field", how about Lloyd, Stallworth, Gaffney to give Welker a breather.
*1 TE/4 WR, Hernandez, Welker, Lloyd, Gaffney, Stallworth.
*1 TE/3 WR/1RB, Hernandez, Welker, Lloyd, Gaffney or Stallworth and a RB
and it goes on and on.

I expect a ton of personnel packages.

Last year we had no 3rd TE now we have the decent Fells.

Last year Branch was our #2 WR and, I guess, Underwood was #3. Now Lloyd will be #2, Gaffney #3, Stallworth will get his packages, Branch should be a good backup all over.

(note, # refer to how many catches I expect, we won't have a true #1, #2, #3 just packages).

Bottom line, we were very limited last year with no third TE and no real WR after Welker and a gimpy Branch. Now we have a third TE plus Lloyd, Gaffney, Stallworth.

The X Factor is the RB like others have said. Although I realized it wouldn't happen I said before the draft that a huge trade up for Richardson might make this the first truly unstoppable offense ever. Imagine the TE, the WR and also having to stop Richardson. Now, Ridley, Vereen, etc, won't be Richardson who is a true stud. But with what we'll be throwing out there ar WR and TE, if the RB should have very easy pickings if they're as good as I think they can be.

Lastly - why the * next to the bottom 2 packages ? If we had the current personnel last year we could have played those package in the SB without Gronk. Imagine that we have that group WITHOUT Gronk.

Also just wait for the 22 personnel (2 TE, 2 RB) with just Welker or Lloyd at WR. Defense brings in a run package only to see Vereen and Hernandez split out as WR. Pick your poison there - play the big defense we split them out and throw. Play the throw and we have the big personnel in there. I have to sound like a euphoric little girl but the options Josh has are limited only by his imagination and he's never lacked for that.

Click to expand...

Not to derail this excellent thread, but as gr8 all of this offensive potential looks, just remember that we just devoted our entire draft to the defense, and along with some returning high-profile injured players, the defense could become at least adequate, if not better.

This team is also young and improving, for the most part, and I don't see any major areas of weakness, if the off season additions perform to reasonable expectations.

We could be looking at the start of something really special in New England.

With all of the threads about WR competition, RB signings, potential use of FBs, 3rd and 4th TEs, etc., one thing is clear: the Pats have signed a ton of skill players this offseason, but they will have to be selective in paring down the final roster and figuring out which players to keep and what kind of an offense they want to run. I came across this article from Football Outsiders which came out just before the Super Bowl - after it was announced that Bill O'Brien was leaving and after Josh McDaniels was re-hired, but before FA and the draft. As far as I can tell, it hasn't been discussed on this site yet - as with the thread on the evolution of the defense, my apologies if I'm re-treading old ground. Since the article is Insider content, I'm posting most (but not all) of it:

I don't think Ian offers dispensation for posting the bulk of something because it's by subscription. I love how folks on the Planet get to just post it all, but Ian has heen pretty consistent here in his unwillingness to take that approach. Even if his stance isn't enforced consistently...

It's a pretty simplistic analysis. And the Pats did indeed sign Brandon Lloyd in the offseason. But if all they were trying to do was achieve what the FO article suggests, then I'm not sure about why they did the following:

- Signed RB Joseph Addai. Depth or injury injurance for Vereen/Ridley, or does it signal more of an involvement of the running game.Depth, injury insurance and veteran presence. He replaced BJGE and Faulk with one FA signing.
- Signed FBs Tony Fiammetta and Spencer Larsen. Decided it was better to carry a FB than have to keep utilizing OLmen due in part to losses and potential losses creating depth concerns within that unit.
- Signed Jabar Gaffney, Donte Stallworth and Anthony Gonzalez in addition to Lloyd.Signed Gaffney because he could. Stallworth and Gonzalez were potential depth signings if they even make the 53 and insurance if others don't or potential shadow roster if they don't.
- Added TE Daniel Fells.This was the easiest. Can't run a 2 TE offense effectively/efficiently with only 2 TE's on the roster because **** happens. I noted that last season, too. But either because he couldn't land the right one or because of roster need elsewhere, we ended up short handed at the worst possible time.

I'm not sure what BB and Josh McDaniels are ultimately going to be cooking on offense. But it seems more elaborate than just tweaking the spread offense to use the TEs with Hernandez lining up at WR more often.

How do people think the offense will evolve? Will Josh McD go back to the spread? Will he keep the offense basically as is but tweak it a bit with more of an outside threat? Or will the offense be something different from either 2007-2009 or 2010-2011?

Click to expand...

I think they are just tweeking it and hoping to refine it and hoping to have the depth to run it consistently as they intended to last season. Ocho really screwed the pooch on BOB last year, as did the situation with the 2 rookie backs, Benny's toe, Woodhead's ankle and groin and Faulk's rehab status. They utilized FA extensively to potentially upgrade depth on offense, and a combination of FA and pretty much the entire draft to upgrade talent on defense. They may not be done on defense pending OTA's and early TC. They haven't issued Carter's or Ihedibo's jersey numbers yet.

Also just wait for the 22 personnel (2 TE, 2 RB) with just Welker or Lloyd at WR. Defense brings in a run package only to see Vereen and Hernandez split out as WR. Pick your poison there - play the big defense we split them out and throw. Play the throw and we have the big personnel in there. I have to sound like a euphoric little girl but the options Josh has are limited only by his imagination and he's never lacked for that.

Click to expand...

I hope it also eliminates the need to use Hernandez as a running back. It's an effective change up but he runs too high out of the back field and got lit up a few times. He means too much to the offense.

I hope the FB additions means they'll line up in an obvious running situation and ram it down the other team's throat when needed. I'm not adovating 3 yards and a cloud of dust because with this roster that idiotic. But with a 10+ point lead late in the game instead of passing or letting Brady sneak a 3rd and long one and get broken in half by Ray Lewis run the ball. Make them honor it and then play action when needed.

I do hope when teams go really small they show they will commit to the run and force DBs off the field.

I am going to propose a course of action that is completely contradictory to what has been suggested. Yet it also answers the questions of what is Bill Belichick up to, and doing, and what does it imply.

My thesis is that Bill is and has been preparing for a "ground and pound", very balanced Offense. But with a unconventional twist.

Bill will have a complete running Offense on the field almost always, with two TEs and some big backs, maybe even including a FB. Every one of whom, can be a reliable reciever. He has drafted and signed some awfully big Offensive linemen, much bigger than was the norm before.

I believe Bill intends to improve his Defense too, with better personnel, but just as much by dominating TOP, and keeping them off the field. With the passing rules in effect, Bill appears to have decided that the best and only Defense is keep the opponent's Offense off the field.

Unlike the usual "ground and pound", good run, poor pass teams, this run Offense can shift, without substituting any players, into a deadly passing game. A deadly 2TE, passing game as has been demonstrated already, in 2011.

When the Defense spends 28 minutes on the field instead of 32 minute per game, stats will change. As well as having a deeper more talented defensive squad, the Defensive stats will become much more respectable, almost as a matter of course.

I am going to propose a course of action that is completely contradictory to what has been suggested. Yet it also answers the questions of what is Bill Belichick up to, and doing, and what does it imply.

My thesis is that Bill is and has been preparing for a "ground and pound", very balanced Offense. But with a unconventional twist.

Bill will have a complete running Offense on the field almost always, with two TEs and some big backs, maybe even including a FB. Every one of whom, can be a reliable reciever. He has drafted and signed some awfully big Offensive linemen, much bigger than was the norm before.

I believe Bill intends to improve his Defense too, with better personnel, but just as much by dominating TOP, and keeping them off the field. With the passing rules in effect, Bill appears to have decided that the best and only Defense is keep the opponent's Offense off the field.

Unlike the usual "ground and pound", good run, poor pass teams, this run Offense can shift, without substituting any players, into a deadly passing game. A deadly 2TE, passing game as has been demonstrated already, in 2011.

When the Defense spends 28 minutes on the field instead of 32 minute per game, stats will change. As well as having a deeper more talented defensive squad, the Defensive stats will become much more respectable, almost as a matter of course.

Click to expand...

I have wanted more run/pass balance and more integration since 2009. I'd live to be able to pound the ball occasionally a la 2004. And I'd love more run/pass imagination. But by no stretch of my very vivid imagination can I imagine going to a ground and pound approach as our primary offense.