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Saturday, October 31, 2015

Russian Airstrikes in Syria: September 30 - October 30, 2015

By Genevieve Casagrande with Jodi Brignola

Key Takeaway: The
Russian air campaign in Syria reportedly expanded into the southern
province of Dera’a one month after Russian airstrikes in Syria
commenced. Credible local sources reported that Russian warplanes
conducted overnight strikes near Tel al-Harra and other nearby villages
east of the Golan Heights in Dera’a Province on October 28. Tel al-Harra
is the location of a Russian signals intelligence facility, which was
seized by rebels in October 2014. These airstrikes follow reports that
the Syrian regime and Hezbollah reinforcements arrived in northwestern
Dera’a Province on October 27. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) did not release official
airstrike reports for October 29-30. However, credible local activist
sources continued to report instances of Russian airstrikes throughout
Dera’a, Damascus, Homs, Idlib, and Aleppo. Russian airstrikes largely
concentrated around rebel-held areas in the northern Homs countryside
and within Aleppo City.

The following graphic depicts ISW’s assessment of Russian airstrike
locations based on reports from local Syrian activist networks, Syrian
state-run media, and statements by Russian and Western officials.

High-Confidence reporting. ISW places high confidence in reports
corroborated both by official government statements reported through
credible channels and documentation from rebel factions or activist
networks on the ground in Syria deemed to be credible.

Low-Confidence reporting. ISW places low confidence in secondary
sources that have not been confirmed or sources deemed likely to contain
disinformation.