The regime-controlled National Electoral Council used dirty tricks to confuse voters. It kept candidates who'd withdrawn from the governor's race on the ballot and relocated voting centers in opposition-dominated areas into high-crime neighborhoods just hours before voting began.

A protester in Venezuela throws back a tear gas canister during demonstrations in Venezuela.
Carlos Garcia Rawlins/Reuters

All of this stirs up voter mistrust and confusion, making it less likely voters will head to the polls next week. It may also be stoking violence. On Nov. 29, a congressman was shot in his car.

Maduro is also catering to his own dwindling base. How does a president with record low approval still even have supporters to motivate? The answer is patronage.

In September 2017, Maduro government introduced a new identity document called the Carnet de la Patria, which promised card-holders benefits like food and medicine in exchange for loyalty to the regime. In a time of great scarcity, the offer of basic necessities was compelling.

Today, more than 12 million government employees and Venezuelan citizens - or about half the population - have the Carnet. Their gratitude helped Maduro's Socialists attract over half a million more votes in October's gubernatorial election than it had in the last legislative election, even though nearly 90 percent of Venezuelans say their country's crisis has worsened in the past year.

Such voter inducement will surely help again in the upcoming mayoral elections. And when Maduro runs for president next year, Carnet beneficiaries will give him a substantial leg up.

Internal dissent

In other words, Maduro's increasing turn toward "democratic" elections should not be understood to mean that this Socialist government enjoys the same wild support it did under Hugo Chávez.

This is why three of the four main opposition parties have decided to boycott municipal elections in December. Rather than run mayoral candidates in a fraudulent election, they say, they're focusing on demanding fairer conditions for the 2018 presidential election.

There, they hope to capture voter anger and defeat the president fair and square.

They have their work cut out for them. Venezuelans demand new leadership, but that doesn't mean they'll trust anyone who opposes Maduro. To forge a future of freedom and democracy, Venezuela's opposition must first regain the faith of the people.