Fantasy Football War

Saturday, June 28, 2014

2014 Fantasy Football Position Rankings(Updated August 7, 2014)
The 2014 NFL season is upon us! Now that Summer has officially begun, it is time for me get back into writing for you fine people! So much has happened since my last post. We saw a lot of players gain value due to scenery changes (Toby Gerhart, Ben Tate, etc.) and we saw some players possibly lose some value as well (Chris Johnson, DeSean Jackson, etc.). This is my first official rankings for the 2014 fantasy football season. As training camps open up later in July these rankings may change. There are still many stories to be unravelled as the season gets closer. A wise man once said "Sit down.... stay a while.... and let the good times roll!" Enjoy :)

QB

Peyton Manning- Peyton's gonna be Peyton.

Aaron Rodgers- Now that there is a ground game, look for Rodgers to post amazing numbers.

Drew Brees- Regularly puts up 5,000+ passing yards. No worries here.

Matthew Stafford- Having Calvin and now Golden Tate will help his cause.

Matt Ryan- Throwing to Julio Jones and Roddy White is as good as it comes.

Colin Kaepernick- SF added Stevie Johnson and gets Crabtree back to full health. Kaep should have a solid season with all those weapons he has now.

Robert Griffin III- Another year removed from the torn ACL and he now gets a field stretcher in DJax. Expect great things from RGIII.

Andrew Luck- Gets Wayne back and adds Nicks as well.... Solid.

Tony Romo- Never gets any love. New OC Scott Linehan will do wonders with this offense.

Tom Brady- If Gronk is healthy at the beginning of the season and can stay healthy, the sky is the limit.

Nick Foles- Losing DeSean Jackson hurts his value some. He will regress from his ridiculous 27 TD/ 2 Int from last season.

Philip Rivers- Has a stud at WR in Keenan Allen and a great HC in Mike McCoy.

Cam Newton- I think I could start at WR for the Panthers.... Seriously.... it's that bad...

Russell Wilson- Run first offense scares me but he is a quality QB. Gets Harvin back 100% as well.

Jay Cutler- Throws to arguably the best WR duo in football.... if only he could stay healthy for a full 16 games....

Ben Roethlisberger

Ryan Tannehill

Andy Dalton

Alex Smith

Eli Manning

RB

Adrian Peterson- Getting Norv Turner will do wonders for AP. Still has a couple great years in the tank.

LeSean McCoy- Stud fo sho.

Jamaal Charles- The only reason he isn't #1 is because of the offseason moves on his O-Line. He will still be a stud. No worries.

Matt Forte- Perfect skill set for this offense.

Eddie Lacy- As safe as they come this year at the scarce RB position.

Montee Ball- With Moreno gone, Ball gets the backfield to himself in Denver. Great things shall follow.

Le'Veon Bell- Had a great rookie year and HC Mike Tomlin loves him. Expect a lot of volume this year.

DeMarco Murray- Even if he misses 2 games again this year, I like him to post amazing numbers. Expect his receptions to go up with OC Scott Linehan calling the plays.

Giovani Bernard- Bernard will begin to emerge as a star this year.

Alfred Morris- Lacks in the receptions but gets a healthy workload and that adds to his value.

Arian Foster- Getting the year off (basically) will have him rested and ready for 2014.

Marshawn Lynch- My gut tells me the workload over the past 3 years will catch up to Lynch this year. Expect regression. The holdout doesn't help either...

Zac Stacy- An improved O-Line and a lot of volume makes Stacy a solid RB.

Doug Martin- The new coaching staff in TB scares me off Martin some...

Ryan Mathews- As long as he stays healthy he will produce in this offense.

CJ Spiller- Healthy is the only thing keeping him from being a top 5 RB.

Andre Ellington- All signs this offseason point to Ellington having a much larger workload this season. Has a ton of talent.

Toby Gerhart- Finally out of Peterson's shadow, look for Gerhart to come close to 300 total touches.

Bishop Sankey- The talented Rookie gets his chance to shine with this star studded O-Line.

Frank Gore- Has one more good year in the tank.

Rashad Jennings- Posted over 1,000 total yards last season in only 8 games.... could be a steal if he stays healthy.

Reggie Bush- Word has it that his workload will decrease as he and Bell split carries.

Joique Bell- He's talented, but as long as Bush is in his way, he will never hit his potential.

Shane Vereen- Sneaky value as the pass catching RB in NE.

Stevan Ridley- As long as he doesn't fumble the job away.....

Ben Tate- If he stays healthy he could finish much higher than this.

Trent Richardson- Indy still believes he can be a 3 down back. Now let's see him do more than just run into his own offensive linemen.

Chris Johnson- The move to the NYJ could be beneficial but I still think Chris Ivory cuts into his touches.

Ray Rice- It sounds like a suspension is looming from offseason troubles....

Pierre Thomas- Sneaky play in this high profile passing attack. PPR stud.

WR

Calvin Johnson- Megatron is in a league of his own.

Demaryius Thomas- As long as Manning is throwing him the ball he will be a stud (and maybe even when Peyton is gone).

Dez Bryant- Has the skill to hang with Megatron and with new OC Scott Linehan, Bryant could post a career year.

Jordan Reed- If he can stay healthy he could finish higher than this, easily.

Zach Ertz- With DeSean Jackson gone, Ertz will receive more targets in this high speed offense.

Martellus Bennett- This offense keeps getting better and better.

Charles Clay- Seized the opportunity when Dustin Keller went down last year.

Delanie Walker

Heath Miller- The forgotten TE. A year removed from a major injury. Bounce back year.

Eric Ebron

Antonio Gates

Ladarius Green

Garrett Graham

Tyler Eifert

** Please feel free to follow me on Twitter @CTonyRow. Send in your questions. I'm always up for helping in any way possible :) Look for the best questions to be answered in the fantasy mailbag section coming soon!

Tuesday, March 4, 2014

Dennis Pitta re-signs with Baltimore. What does it mean?
Dennis Pitta recently re-signed with the Baltimore Ravens to the tune of a 5 year/ $32 million deal. This is obviously good news for the Ravens, as the only solid weapon they had last year receiving wise was Torrey Smith. So now the question stands, what does it mean for fantasy purposes?
First off, I love what it does for Torrey Smith and his fantasy value. As stated above, Smith was the only decent WR for Baltimore and therefor saw a lot of double teams. He still performed as a WR2 (finishing the season as the WR19 in standard leagues). With Pitta now healthy and signed, Smith will see less double teams. Pitta has a lot of athleticism and is a great route runner. He will keep defenses honest in that regard.
Next, Pitta looked pretty good down the stretch when he was able to return from a hip injury that sidelined him for most of last season. He has the ability to perform immediately. In 2012 Pitta posted 669 yards receiving and 7 TDs. These are easily starting TE numbers. Also, these were before Torrey Smith really broke out and before they signed Gary Kubiak to the coaching staff. Which leads me to my final, and maybe most important, point...
Gary Kubiak is the new Offensive Coordinator for the Baltimore Ravens after being fired as head coach of the Houston Texans. As HC of the Texans, Kubiak installed a system that relied heavily on the TE position. A majority of the passes by Matt Schaub in Houston were to the TE. This bodes very well for Pitta. So Kubiak will look towards Pitta often in Baltimore, which can only help his value.
Pitta is one of those TEs that has a lot of upside. He will fall somewhere from 5-7 in most TE rankings. Feel free to draft Pitta with confidence.

Tuesday, February 18, 2014

In 2012, Michael Crabtree was a
sneaky fantasy play. He began the season with Alex Smith as his starting QB but
around halfway through the season Smith suffered a concussion and Colin
Kaepernick was thrown into the lineup. Since then, Smith has moved on to Kansas
City and Kaepernick has continued to start for San Francisco. When Kaep took
over as QB, it was quite clear that he wanted to throw Crabtree’s way and that
th two had chemistry. He finished the season with 1,105 yards receiving and 9
TDs, finishing as a top 20 fantasy WR.

Moving into 2013, there was so much
promise for Crabtree to be a borderline WR1 and fulfill the promise that so
many people saw when Crabtree was a stud WR in college at Texas Tech. Then came
the torn Achilles tendon that sidelined him until week 13. When he finally made
it back into the lineup he showed flashes of brilliance, especially in weeks 15
and 16, where he posted double-digit fantasy points. He didn’t look the same
but that was to be expected with some possible rust from the long layoff.

Looking forward to 2014, Crabtree
has the opportunity to bounce back to his 2012 form. One thing to remember is
that Crabtree is in a contract year. Usually players that are in contract years
tend to give that little extra effort with hopes of impressing possible
employers. Next, let’s remember that Kaepernick loves Crabtree and will benefit
from having his #1 WR back. I have also heard that the 49’ers are in the market
for a downfield threat to help Crabtree and Vernon Davis.

Also, let’s look at the supporting
cast for San Francisco. To go along with Crabtree, San Francisco has one of the
best tight ends in the game in Vernon Davis. Davis plays all over the field and
helps in keeping defenses from just centering on Crabtree. Anquan Boldin was a
fantastic addition last offseason to the tune of 1,179 yards receiving and 7
TDs. Unfortunately, as of now, Boldin is set to be a free agent. If San Fran
re-signs him, it will only help Crabtree’s value by keeping defenses from
double teaming him. If they let him walk, it may hurt Crabtree’s value a bit.
Now we move on to the most important position in the NFL, Quarterback. In 2012,
Colin Kaepernick showed a lot of promise and chemistry with Crabtree in the
lineup. In 2013, Kaepernick struggled most of the season without his top
target. It was interesting to see how the dynamic of the entire offense changed
with Crabtree out of the lineup. Kaepernick has shown that he can get Crabtree
the ball and that he wants to get Crabtree the ball. There should be no concern
that passes will not be thrown in Crabtree’s direction.

One thing that we have to remember
with Crabtree is that we have a small sample size to analyze. We can pretty
much throw 2013 out of the equation due to the fact that he was injured a majority
of the season and rust was sure to set in from the long layoff. There is just
no way of telling if he was the same player. So all we have to go by is the
half of the 2012 season that Crabtree played with Kaepernick as his starting
QB. Those numbers that he put up tell me that we have more to expect from
Crabtree in the future.

The next point to look at would
have to be the division Crabtree plays in. The NFC West is one of the toughest
divisions in the NFL with three teams that posted 10+ wins last season
(Seattle, SF, Arizona). The cornerbacks in this division are also top of the
line. Seattle sports one of the best corners in the league in Richard Sherman.
Arizona also has one of the best in the business in Patrick Peterson. That is
four games that Crabtree will be playing against top-notch competition. From
this aspect, this has to be looked upon in a negative regard.

With a healthy offseason and some
minor additions made by the 49’ers in the draft and Free Agency, there is no
reason not to expect Crabtree to post numbers close to that of 2012, which put
Crabtree as a top 20 WR. I would not be surprised to see Crabtree increase
slightly upon those totals and post a career year all across the stat sheet.

Saturday, January 4, 2014

Josh GordonAt the beginning of the season we saw Josh Gordon serve a 2 game suspension for violating the NFL's substance abuse policy. Because of this, we saw Gordon's value drop a lot as drafts approached in 2013. Now, we all knew Gordon was talented, but we didn't see anything like this coming. Gordon led the NFL in receiving yards, posting 1,646 yards off of 87 receptions. Those are incredible numbers when you take into account that Gordon played 14 games instead of a normal 16 games. This is an average of 117 yards per game! Needless to say, Gordon surprised many of us and now we have to wonder about what he can do as the 2014 season approaches.

Let's take a look at the positives. Probably the most impressive thing about Josh Gordon is the fact that he posted these insane numbers with 3 terrible QB's. Starting the season, we saw Brandon Weeden take the helm. After suffering an injury we got to see the promise of Brian Hoyer. After Hoyer suffered and ACL tear, we saw Jason Campbell take over the QB play. That is not a list of promising QB's to say the least. Yet each week Gordon continued to produce. From weeks 11-14 we saw Gordon produce one of Fantasy Football's most impressive WR numbers ever. In that span Gordon produced 774 yards receiving along with 5 TD's. The next point that we have to make is the possibility that Cleveland makes an upgrade at QB either through free agency of through the NFL draft. Thanks to the Trent Richardson trade back during the season, Cleveland now has 2 first round picks. They may be able to maneuver some and draft one of those top tier QB's that will be available in the draft this year (Bridgewater, Manziel, Carr, Bortles). Any of these QB's would be better than what they have now and as long as Cleveland keeps Norv Turner as the offensive coordinator there will be no problems.

Now we take a look at the negatives. The one negative point that pops out to me the most when thinking about Josh Gordon is the off chance that he gets into trouble again with the NFL. If Gordon were to violate the NFL's substance abuse policy again then he would be in jeopardy of missing an entire season or more possibly. With fantasy experts projecting Gordon as a late 1st-early 2nd round draft pick, this is a big gamble to take on a player you are drafting with such a high draft pick. You would think that the Cleveland Browns organization would hire somebody to follow Gordon around in the offseason just to make sure he stays out of trouble. The next problem I have with Gordon is if Cleveland drafts a QB, that QB is going to need some time to possibly learn the system and get acclimated to the fast pace of the NFL. Lastly, Cleveland just recently fired Rob Chudzinski, after only 1 year as Head Coach. We do not know who they will be hiring or what kind of system they will be implementing in Cleveland yet. A lot depends on who is hired. Beyond that I have no other problems with Flash Gordon.

In conclusion, while the upside of Gordon is through the roof, the risks do need to be monitored as draft day approaches. The NFL draft in May will be very big for Cleveland and any person that is entertaining the idea of Drafting Gordon for Fantasy purposes will need to keep tabs on their draft picks. Some experts will throw the thought into the air that you should draft Gordon with your 1st round draft pick. Do not be the sucker to buy into this! With how deep the WR position will be in 2014 you will be able to wait and still nab a fantastic WR for your teams. Gordon is a 2nd round draft pick and if you can nab him in the 3rd round then you are doing fantastic. For Fantasy auction leagues, I wouldn't feel comfortable spending more than $40 on Gordon with a $200 budget. Gordon is a rare talent and will be ranked by many experts as a top 5 WR. It will be hard for Gordon to duplicate his 'out of this world' 2013 season but will still post WR1 numbers for sure. Please please please don't draft him with your 1st round pick though!

Tuesday, December 31, 2013

Player Profile: DeMarco Murray
This is the beginning of an ongoing segment I will be writing throughout the offseason about all kinds of players and what you should expect from those players going forward. At the end of each segment I will offer a projection of their statistics for the 2014 season. With these segments, I will try my hardest to make this offseason go by as fast as possible for you :) Enjoy!

DeMarco Murray
Murray easily had his best year since being drafted in 2011. Murray finished 2013 with 217 carries, 1,124 yards rushing, and 9 TD's. What is even more staggering is that Murray had 53 receptions on top of those rushing numbers for 350 yards and 1 receiving TD. 3 out of the final 4 weeks of the Fantasy Football season Murray had 20 or more fantasy points (most leagues finish their season in week 16, so we will go with that). That's incredible! On top of all of this, Murray averaged an amazing 5.2 yards per carry. There seems to be lots to be excited about when thinking about drafting Murray in 2014.
Now, lets get to the bad. The obvious rebuttal to anything great that is said about Murray is his history of injuries. Murray is 3 years into his NFL career and has never played a full NFL season. In 2013, Murray was forced to miss 2 games due to injury. Murray topped 20 carries in only 3 games. Also, 2013 was Murray's first season of posting more than 1,000 yards rushing.
In conclusion, a lot of Fantasy Football experts are calling for Murray to be a mid to late first round draft pick for 2014. I cannot feel comfortable in drafting a player that has such a history of injuries with my first round draft pick. I would rather draft a player that has a healthier history and more upside such as Eddie Lacy or Zac Stacy. I like Murray a lot, just not as a first round pick. I'd feel more comfortable drafting Murray in the second or third round. If you plan on drafting Murray be prepared for him to miss a few games. Have a legit backup RB. As the old saying goes "You won't win your Fantasy Football league in the first round, but you can definitely lose it".

Friday, December 27, 2013

We touched on the first round of Fantasy Football drafts for 2014. This week we start to look towards the second round! Following our early run of RB's in the first round, we will begin to see more WR's and possibly other positions begin to be drafted. Remember, these are based on a 12-team standard league and will probably change a lot through the course of the next 6 months. Enjoy!

2nd Round

13. Josh Gordon- Gordon was a thing of beauty in 2013. Not only did he outperform nearly every WR, but he did it with 3 awful QB's throwing him the ball. I think we can all agree that Brandon Weeden, Brian Hoyer, and Jason Campbell are not very good QB's. If Cleveland drafts a young QB in the draft it would help Gordon's value. If Cleveland decides to go with Hoyer as their starter we saw that Gordon can contribute with him as well.14. Zac Stacy- I called for Stacy to get the starting roll in St. Louis before preseason last year. It took 5 weeks for it to happen but it finally did. When it did we were rewarded with a workhorse RB. Head coach Jeff Fischer loves to run the ball. It was evident by how he used Stacy. You can count on Stacy to get around 20 touches a game. That is solid gold in fantasy football. He is a safe bet.15. Giovani Bernard- This all depends on what the Cincinnati Bengals do with BenJarvis Green-Ellis in the offseason. If they let him walk in free agency then Bernard's value will go sky high since he will be the only RB with any talent on the Bengals' roster. Bernard has the talent. He just needs a few more touches to join that elite level.16. AJ Green- AJ Green has surpassed 1,000 receiving yards in each season he has been in the NFL. He is one of the few WR's that will consistently produce for you. He is as safe a play as they come at WR.17. Arian Foster- One can only hope that the half year off that Foster receiving due to his back injury will help keep him fresh. Foster has a lot of miles on his wheels and because of this a lot of owners will be timid to take him in their draft due to him wearing down. Let's give Foster the benefit of the doubt and remember the fact that he is an every down RB. He does it all. That has to carry some credibility, doesn't it?18. Aaron Rodgers- Rodgers always seems to consistently perform. Last season, Rodgers suffered a fracture to his collarbone which caused him to miss week 9-16. With the weapons at his disposal, I think we can all count on a great comeback from Rodgers. He is still in the prime of his career.19. Demaryius Thomas- Thomas was one of those safe WR's that had a ton of upside. The first half of 2013 was a little rough but the second half was fantastic. He has Peyton Manning throwing him the ball along with a great set of receivers to help take the defensive coverage off of him. Expect more great seasons from this young WR.20. Julio Jones- Julio Jones was on a tear up until week 5 where he suffered an ankle injury. Assuming he will be 100% healthy by training camp, I see no reason that Jones can't perform like he was the first 5 weeks of 2013. He still has Roddy White to keep the opposing defenses honest and he still has Matt Ryan throwing to him. Expect a great year for Julio if he can stay healthy.21. DeMarco Murray- Murray is one of those players that I am always worried about due to the injury history that comes with him. 2013 was his best year as a professional by far. He played in every game with the exception of two. He finished the season on a high note as he scored 20 or more points in 3 of his last 5 games. If you're willing to gamble a little, Murray is your man. He has a ton of talent but just be sure you plan for him to miss a few games a year. When he is healthy he is as good as they come.22. Drew Brees- No QB has been as consistent as Drew Brees. Brees is a near lock for around 5,000 yards passing and around 40 TDs. Those are incredible numbers from a fantasy perspective. The high powered offense in New Orleans isn't going anywhere and Brees has a few grand years left in the tank. Draft Brees with confidence.23. Dez Bryant- Many people drafted Dez Bryant with the thought that he was going to continue the 2013 season with how he finished the 2012 season. While Bryant did have a great year, it wasn't nearly as great as many thought it was going to be, and therefor was slightly disappointing. Bryant is in a great offense and has a good QB throwing him the ball in Tony Romo. Bryant is a WR1 in all formats.24. Brandon Marshall- Brandon Marshall has 7 straight seasons of over 1,000 yards receiving. That's incredible. Since joining the Chicago Bears in 2011 he has scored no less than 11 TD's. With the emergence of Alshon Jeffery he may lose a few looks in the passing game but it will also lessen the double teams that Marshall has been receiving for years. He will be 30 in 2014 and still a lot to offer fantasy owners.

Thursday, December 19, 2013

2014 Fantasy Football 1st round draft picks
In this segment, I'm gonna post my first round draft picks for a standard 12 team league. Of course these could easily switch around over the course of the next few months with the NFL draft in May and all, but it's still fun just to have a glance of what fantasy drafts might look like as of now :)

1. Jamaal Charles (RB1)- What can you say about Jamaal Charles that everyone doesn't already know?! He is this years Fantasy Football MVP. He posted 2,100 total yards this season. Not only did he get the carries but he recorded a ridiculous amount of receptions as well! He is by far, leaps and bounds, ahead of everyone else as the safest pick in the draft. He is a MONSTER!

2. LeSean McCoy (RB2)- There were a few question marks about McCoy coming into 2013 about his health, the new head coach in Chip Kelly, and a totally new offense. McCoy put everyone's doubts to rest from the opening week. He will be highly sought after in 2014.

3. Adrian Peterson (RB3)- Peterson will be 29 for the 2014 season and has a lot of tread on his tires. That doesn't really matter in my eyes. Peterson has defied the laws of science year after year. Emmitt Smith was very productive well into his 30's. There's no reason to believe that Peterson can't do the same. He has plenty of very productive years left in the tank. If Minnesota drafts a young QB it may boost his value as well.4. Matt Forte (RB4)- Matt Forte was one of the most productive and consistent RBs in 2013. With such a potent offense that features Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery, there is no reason to believe he can't do it again next year. Teams will not be able to stack the box against Forte due to the presence of Marshall and Jeffery. He is as safe a pick as it gets.5. Marshawn Lynch (RB5)- It's shocking that Lynch has been in the league for 7 years. He will still only be 28 years old in 2014. Being on a team that is run first like Seattle has it's benefits, especially from a fantasy perspective. He is a lock to get 300+ touches. Beast Mode, just like the RBs before him, is a very safe pick and will produce for your team.6. Eddie Lacy (RB6)- This is the first interesting pick I threw into my first round. I loved what I saw from Eddie Lacy in year one. Not only did he get over 250 carries in his first year, one thing people don't realize is that he caught over 30 receptions as well! He is an every down RB. It doesn't hurt that he is THE goal-line back as well. Green Bay has found their workhorse back for years to come and the days of playing RB roulette are over. Look for more to come from Lacy in 2014.7. Calvin Johnson (WR1)- You remember last year when Megatron put up all of those yards but only 5 TDs?! Well this year the TDs came with all the yardage as well. Johnson is in a tier of his own at WR and as long as he has Matthew Stafford throwing him the ball he will always be a stud. Detroit is always among the top 5 in passing attempts each year. That is music to Megatron owners' ears.8. Jimmy Graham (TE1)- Some say that Jimmy Graham is the single greatest advantage that an owner can have on his team. They say this because Graham is like having an extra WR1 at your TE position. Those people are correct. He, like Calvin Johnson, is in a league of his own at the TE position. With Drew Brees throwing him the ball there are many great days ahead for Graham. Don't feel bad drafting a TE with your first round pick (as long as it's Graham, and Graham only).9. Doug Martin (RB7)- Doug Martin broke so many fantasy owners' hearts this year. In week 7 Martin suffered a shoulder injury that forced Tampa Bay to put him on IR to end his season. I like Martin as a bounce back candidate in 2014. Not only will he have the opportunity and carries, but the offensive line for the Buccaneers is improving. Add in the fact that Mike Glennon has developed into a decent QB that opposing defenses will have to respect and you have to like what you see from Martin.10. Alfred Morris (RB8)- Alf didn't have the season that most were hoping for after his incredible rookie campaign. I like Alfred Morris as a first round draft pick for one reason and one reason alone: he's a workhorse RB. Morris is a great downhill RB for Washington and is very reliable. The only drawback to his game is that he rarely catches any passes out of the backfield. He still is consistent and reliable.11. Peyton Manning (QB1)- A lot of people expected Peyton to have a great season with the weapons at his disposal, but nobody expected THIS! At the time of this writing, Manning was on pace to break nearly every single season QB record. He is one of those players that can single-handedly get your fantasy team a win. He is getting up there win the age category but I still believe he has one really great season left in the tank.12. Le'Veon Bell (RB9)- I decided to put Le'Veon Bell in the first round because of the same reason I gave for Alfred Morris: He's a workhorse RB. He missed the first 4 weeks of the season in 2013 and was still able to finish as a top 20 RB. He receives all of his teams carries and catches passes out of the backfield. Throw in the fact that he a goal-line back and it's solid gold from a fantasy standpoint. If he gets a full offseason of work along with a full preseason it wouldn't surprise me one bit if he finished higher than this.