000
FXUS63 KSGF 032358
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
558 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 300 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
Despite widespread cloud cover and a foggy start to the day,
temperatures have managed to warm into the upper 40s and low 50s in
most locations this afternoon. The relative warmth will be fleeting,
however, as a strong cold front is taking aim on the region. As of
2 PM, the front stretched from central Kansas to northern Missouri.
The initial wind shift should arrive in the northern reaches of the
CWA later this afternoon, and the remainder of the CWA by mid
evening. Expect gusty north winds behind the front.
Colder air will lag the wind shift by a few hours, though
temperatures will start to drop noticeably by mid to late evening.
Precipitation should begin to develop--in the form of rain--as a
upper level jet strengthens across the area, and lift increases in
response. As the cold low level air mass begins to move into the
region and surface temps drop below freezing, precipitation should
transition from rain to freezing rain for a short time. Then, as
the low level cold becomes deeper with time, expect freezing rain to
transition to a mix of freezing rain and sleet, and then sleet and
snow. Eventually, as the column cools entirely below freezing,
precipitation will change entirely over to snow. This transition to
all snow looks to take place by daybreak for central Missouri, and
most of the remainder of the CWA by mid morning Wednesday. Sleet
may linger into the mid day or early afternoon hours over far south
central Missouri. In addition, a few bands of heavy precipitation
can be expected Wednesday over southern Missouri, where there
appears to be a good signal for deep tropospheric ascent, as a
persistent area of f-gen develops in the low levels, and the
associated ageostrophic circulation combines with the lift from the
right entrance region to the upper jet. There`s some question as to
whether this will occur over northern Arkansas or southern Missouri
(or both), but the potential is certainly there for periods of
rather intense precipitation rates.
Timing of these transitions will be the biggest challenge over the
next 12 to 24 hours. For most locations, I think freezing rain will
transition fairly quickly to the wintry mix, but the mix may linger
for a bit, with the potential for somewhat significant sleet
accumulations (half inch or greater) over south central Missouri.
It`s important to keep in mind that a degree or two difference in
temperature at the surface as well as aloft will make all the
difference in precipitation type, and resulting accumulations. In
addition, we still expect that accumulation will be hampered
somewhat by the effects of UV making it through the clouds given a
relatively high sun angle, though it`s not clear just how much this
will impact things. No question that the number of moving parts in
this forecast makes it a bit of a low predictability setup.
So, with all said, it appears that a glaze to 0.05-0.07 inches of
freezing rain will be possible during the transition period, with
the bulk of this occurring along and south of I-44. For the
combination of sleet and snow, amounts look to range from 3-6 inches
over south central Missouri, to 2-4 across the I-44 corridor, a
dusting to 1 inch across the U.S. 54 corridor. Given the
aforementioned mesoscale banding potential, locally higher and lower
amounts are likely. With the expected mix, have upgraded the Winter
Storm Watch to a Warning, and added a few counties along the
northwestern edge. North and west of the Warning, an Advisory will
be in effect. The only counties that will be left out of headlines
for now will be the northwestern-most tier (Bourbon, KS to Morgan),
as snow amounts look to be quite light there.
Precipitation should end late Wednesday night, with high pressure
moving into the area by Thursday morning. With that high and fresh
snow, it should be a fairly chilly start to the day Thursday.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
A welcome pattern change is expected beginning Friday and persisting
into next week. The flow aloft deamplifies considerably, though not
becoming completely zonal in nature, with a flat ridge building into
the area early next week. As a result, a warming trend is expected.
Southwest winds will edge temperatures back to near average by
Saturday, with above average temperatures on tap for Sunday into
early next week. A front or two will traverse the region during this
time frame, however moisture is lacking and the brunt of any air mass
changes will be focused to our east.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 545 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A strong cold front will move through
the region early in the taf period followed by upper level
disturbances which will produce periods of rain gradually
transitioning to a wintry mix then snow. To start the period
ceilings vary over the area, generally mvfr/ifr but with a few
areas seeing a scattering out of low clouds. The general trend
will be a lowering of ceilings behind the front with the onset of
light precipitation. Looking for ifr visibility and ceilings much
of the time after 04z-06z with possibly some modest improvement
late in the taf period at KJLN and KSGF with heavier precipitation
beginning to move s-se of the area.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER STORM WARNING from 3 AM Wednesday to 6 AM CST Thursday
FOR MOZ082-083-091-092-095>098-103>106.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 6 AM CST
Thursday FOR MOZ057-058-068>071-077>081-088>090-093-094-101-
102.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 6 AM CST
Thursday FOR KSZ097-101.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...DSA

000
FXUS63 KSGF 032358
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
558 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 300 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
Despite widespread cloud cover and a foggy start to the day,
temperatures have managed to warm into the upper 40s and low 50s in
most locations this afternoon. The relative warmth will be fleeting,
however, as a strong cold front is taking aim on the region. As of
2 PM, the front stretched from central Kansas to northern Missouri.
The initial wind shift should arrive in the northern reaches of the
CWA later this afternoon, and the remainder of the CWA by mid
evening. Expect gusty north winds behind the front.
Colder air will lag the wind shift by a few hours, though
temperatures will start to drop noticeably by mid to late evening.
Precipitation should begin to develop--in the form of rain--as a
upper level jet strengthens across the area, and lift increases in
response. As the cold low level air mass begins to move into the
region and surface temps drop below freezing, precipitation should
transition from rain to freezing rain for a short time. Then, as
the low level cold becomes deeper with time, expect freezing rain to
transition to a mix of freezing rain and sleet, and then sleet and
snow. Eventually, as the column cools entirely below freezing,
precipitation will change entirely over to snow. This transition to
all snow looks to take place by daybreak for central Missouri, and
most of the remainder of the CWA by mid morning Wednesday. Sleet
may linger into the mid day or early afternoon hours over far south
central Missouri. In addition, a few bands of heavy precipitation
can be expected Wednesday over southern Missouri, where there
appears to be a good signal for deep tropospheric ascent, as a
persistent area of f-gen develops in the low levels, and the
associated ageostrophic circulation combines with the lift from the
right entrance region to the upper jet. There`s some question as to
whether this will occur over northern Arkansas or southern Missouri
(or both), but the potential is certainly there for periods of
rather intense precipitation rates.
Timing of these transitions will be the biggest challenge over the
next 12 to 24 hours. For most locations, I think freezing rain will
transition fairly quickly to the wintry mix, but the mix may linger
for a bit, with the potential for somewhat significant sleet
accumulations (half inch or greater) over south central Missouri.
It`s important to keep in mind that a degree or two difference in
temperature at the surface as well as aloft will make all the
difference in precipitation type, and resulting accumulations. In
addition, we still expect that accumulation will be hampered
somewhat by the effects of UV making it through the clouds given a
relatively high sun angle, though it`s not clear just how much this
will impact things. No question that the number of moving parts in
this forecast makes it a bit of a low predictability setup.
So, with all said, it appears that a glaze to 0.05-0.07 inches of
freezing rain will be possible during the transition period, with
the bulk of this occurring along and south of I-44. For the
combination of sleet and snow, amounts look to range from 3-6 inches
over south central Missouri, to 2-4 across the I-44 corridor, a
dusting to 1 inch across the U.S. 54 corridor. Given the
aforementioned mesoscale banding potential, locally higher and lower
amounts are likely. With the expected mix, have upgraded the Winter
Storm Watch to a Warning, and added a few counties along the
northwestern edge. North and west of the Warning, an Advisory will
be in effect. The only counties that will be left out of headlines
for now will be the northwestern-most tier (Bourbon, KS to Morgan),
as snow amounts look to be quite light there.
Precipitation should end late Wednesday night, with high pressure
moving into the area by Thursday morning. With that high and fresh
snow, it should be a fairly chilly start to the day Thursday.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
A welcome pattern change is expected beginning Friday and persisting
into next week. The flow aloft deamplifies considerably, though not
becoming completely zonal in nature, with a flat ridge building into
the area early next week. As a result, a warming trend is expected.
Southwest winds will edge temperatures back to near average by
Saturday, with above average temperatures on tap for Sunday into
early next week. A front or two will traverse the region during this
time frame, however moisture is lacking and the brunt of any air mass
changes will be focused to our east.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 545 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A strong cold front will move through
the region early in the taf period followed by upper level
disturbances which will produce periods of rain gradually
transitioning to a wintry mix then snow. To start the period
ceilings vary over the area, generally mvfr/ifr but with a few
areas seeing a scattering out of low clouds. The general trend
will be a lowering of ceilings behind the front with the onset of
light precipitation. Looking for ifr visibility and ceilings much
of the time after 04z-06z with possibly some modest improvement
late in the taf period at KJLN and KSGF with heavier precipitation
beginning to move s-se of the area.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER STORM WARNING from 3 AM Wednesday to 6 AM CST Thursday
FOR MOZ082-083-091-092-095>098-103>106.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 6 AM CST
Thursday FOR MOZ057-058-068>071-077>081-088>090-093-094-101-
102.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from Midnight tonight to 6 AM CST
Thursday FOR KSZ097-101.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...DSA

000
FXUS63 KSGF 032101
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
301 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 300 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
Despite widespread cloud cover and a foggy start to the day,
temperatures have managed to warm into the upper 40s and low 50s in
most locations this afternoon. The relative warmth will be fleeting,
however, as a strong cold front is taking aim on the region. As of
2 PM, the front stretched from central Kansas to northern Missouri.
The initial wind shift should arrive in the northern reaches of the
CWA later this afternoon, and the remainder of the CWA by mid
evening. Expect gusty north winds behind the front.
Colder air will lag the wind shift by a few hours, though
temperatures will start to drop noticeably by mid to late evening.
Precipitation should begin to develop--in the form of rain--as a
upper level jet strengthens across the area, and lift increases in
response. As the cold low level airmass begins to move into the
region and surface temps drop below freezing, precipitation should
transition from rain to freezing rain for a short time. Then, as
the low level cold becomes deeper with time, expect freezing rain to
transition to a mix of freezing rain and sleet, and then sleet and
snow. Eventually, as the column cools entirely below freezing,
precipitation will change entirely over to snow. This transition to
all snow looks to take place by daybreak for central Missouri, and
most of the remainder of the CWA by mid morning Wednesday. Sleet
may linger into the mid day or early afternoon hours over far south
central Missouri. In addition, a few bands of heavy precipitation
can be expected Wednesday over southern Missouri, where there
appears to be a good signal for deep tropospheric ascent, as a
persistent area of f-gen develops in the low levels, and the
associated ageostrophic circulation combines with the lift from the
right entrance region to the upper jet. There`s some question as to
whether this will occur over northern Arkansas or southern Missouri
(or both), but the potential is certainly there for periods of
rather intense precipitation rates.
Timing of these transitions will be the biggest challenge over the
next 12 to 24 hours. For most locations, I think freezing rain will
transition fairly quickly to the wintry mix, but the mix may linger
for a bit, with the potential for somewhat significant sleet
accumulations (half inch or greater) over south central Missouri.
It`s important to keep in mind that a degree or two difference in
temperature at the surface as well as aloft will make all the
difference in precipitation type, and resulting accumulations. In
addition, we still expect that accumulation will be hampered
somewhat by the effects of UV making it through the clouds given a
relatively high sun angle, though it`s not clear just how much this
will impact things. No question that the number of moving parts in
this forecast makes it a bit of a low predictability setup.
So, with all said, it appears that a glaze to 0.05-0.07 inches of
freezing rain will be possible during the transition period, with
the bulk of this occurring along and south of I-44. For the
combination of sleet and snow, amounts look to range from 3-6 inches
over south central Missouri, to 2-4 across the I-44 corridor, a
dusting to 1 inch across the U.S. 54 corridor. Given the
aforementioned mesoscale banding potential, locally higher and lower
amounts are likely. With the expected mix, have upgraded the Winter
Storm Watch to a Warning, and added a few counties along the
northwestern edge. North and west of the Warning, an Advisory will
be in effect. The only counties that will be left out of headlines
for now will be the northwestern-most tier (Bourbon, KS to Morgan),
as snow amounts look to be quite light there.
Precipitation should end late Wednesday night, with high pressure
moving into the area by Thursday morning. With that high and fresh
snow, it should be a fairly chilly start to the day Thursday.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
A welcome pattern change is expected beginning Friday and persisting
into next week. The flow aloft deamplifies considerably, though not
becoming completely zonal in nature, with a flat ridge building into
the area early next week. As a result, a warming trend is expected.
Southwest winds will edge temperatures back to near average by
Saturday, with above average temperatures on tap for Sunday into
early next week. A front or two will traverse the region during this
time frame, however moisture is lacking and the brunt of any airmass
changes will be focused to our east.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1123 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
IFR conditions will be the rule this afternoon, with gusty
southwest winds expected ahead of an approaching front. Exact
timing of the front will be a challenge, but mid evening looks to
be the rule for now.
As that front passes, expect a period of gusty north winds. In
addition, areas of rain will develop across the region, with a
transition to freezing rain and then a mix of sleet, snow, and
freezing rain as temperatures cool. A change to all snow is then
expected tomorrow; that change should occur during the mid morning
hours for SGF and JLN, and late morning or early afternoon for
BBG. Again, exact timing is a challenge. Once the change to all
snow takes place, expected widespread IFR or LIFR vis.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER STORM WATCH from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday
night FOR MOZ082-083-092-096>098-104>106.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Boxell

000
FXUS63 KSGF 032101
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
301 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 300 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
Despite widespread cloud cover and a foggy start to the day,
temperatures have managed to warm into the upper 40s and low 50s in
most locations this afternoon. The relative warmth will be fleeting,
however, as a strong cold front is taking aim on the region. As of
2 PM, the front stretched from central Kansas to northern Missouri.
The initial wind shift should arrive in the northern reaches of the
CWA later this afternoon, and the remainder of the CWA by mid
evening. Expect gusty north winds behind the front.
Colder air will lag the wind shift by a few hours, though
temperatures will start to drop noticeably by mid to late evening.
Precipitation should begin to develop--in the form of rain--as a
upper level jet strengthens across the area, and lift increases in
response. As the cold low level airmass begins to move into the
region and surface temps drop below freezing, precipitation should
transition from rain to freezing rain for a short time. Then, as
the low level cold becomes deeper with time, expect freezing rain to
transition to a mix of freezing rain and sleet, and then sleet and
snow. Eventually, as the column cools entirely below freezing,
precipitation will change entirely over to snow. This transition to
all snow looks to take place by daybreak for central Missouri, and
most of the remainder of the CWA by mid morning Wednesday. Sleet
may linger into the mid day or early afternoon hours over far south
central Missouri. In addition, a few bands of heavy precipitation
can be expected Wednesday over southern Missouri, where there
appears to be a good signal for deep tropospheric ascent, as a
persistent area of f-gen develops in the low levels, and the
associated ageostrophic circulation combines with the lift from the
right entrance region to the upper jet. There`s some question as to
whether this will occur over northern Arkansas or southern Missouri
(or both), but the potential is certainly there for periods of
rather intense precipitation rates.
Timing of these transitions will be the biggest challenge over the
next 12 to 24 hours. For most locations, I think freezing rain will
transition fairly quickly to the wintry mix, but the mix may linger
for a bit, with the potential for somewhat significant sleet
accumulations (half inch or greater) over south central Missouri.
It`s important to keep in mind that a degree or two difference in
temperature at the surface as well as aloft will make all the
difference in precipitation type, and resulting accumulations. In
addition, we still expect that accumulation will be hampered
somewhat by the effects of UV making it through the clouds given a
relatively high sun angle, though it`s not clear just how much this
will impact things. No question that the number of moving parts in
this forecast makes it a bit of a low predictability setup.
So, with all said, it appears that a glaze to 0.05-0.07 inches of
freezing rain will be possible during the transition period, with
the bulk of this occurring along and south of I-44. For the
combination of sleet and snow, amounts look to range from 3-6 inches
over south central Missouri, to 2-4 across the I-44 corridor, a
dusting to 1 inch across the U.S. 54 corridor. Given the
aforementioned mesoscale banding potential, locally higher and lower
amounts are likely. With the expected mix, have upgraded the Winter
Storm Watch to a Warning, and added a few counties along the
northwestern edge. North and west of the Warning, an Advisory will
be in effect. The only counties that will be left out of headlines
for now will be the northwestern-most tier (Bourbon, KS to Morgan),
as snow amounts look to be quite light there.
Precipitation should end late Wednesday night, with high pressure
moving into the area by Thursday morning. With that high and fresh
snow, it should be a fairly chilly start to the day Thursday.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
A welcome pattern change is expected beginning Friday and persisting
into next week. The flow aloft deamplifies considerably, though not
becoming completely zonal in nature, with a flat ridge building into
the area early next week. As a result, a warming trend is expected.
Southwest winds will edge temperatures back to near average by
Saturday, with above average temperatures on tap for Sunday into
early next week. A front or two will traverse the region during this
time frame, however moisture is lacking and the brunt of any airmass
changes will be focused to our east.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1123 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
IFR conditions will be the rule this afternoon, with gusty
southwest winds expected ahead of an approaching front. Exact
timing of the front will be a challenge, but mid evening looks to
be the rule for now.
As that front passes, expect a period of gusty north winds. In
addition, areas of rain will develop across the region, with a
transition to freezing rain and then a mix of sleet, snow, and
freezing rain as temperatures cool. A change to all snow is then
expected tomorrow; that change should occur during the mid morning
hours for SGF and JLN, and late morning or early afternoon for
BBG. Again, exact timing is a challenge. Once the change to all
snow takes place, expected widespread IFR or LIFR vis.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER STORM WATCH from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday
night FOR MOZ082-083-092-096>098-104>106.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Boxell

000
FXUS63 KSGF 031727
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1127 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015
...18Z Aviation Update...
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
For today, may see some early morning drizzle associated with the
strong warm advection ongoing across the area. A shortwave and
associated cold front will begin to push into the area later today
with rain shower chances increasing...especially over the eastern
CWA. Not particularly looking for much in the way of measured
rainfall with best moisture transport to our east. Previous shift
had removed thunder from the forecast due to a lack of instability
and this still looks good. Highs today should reach the low to mid
50s across the area with the lower readings where the front will
go through the earliest in west central MO.
Tonight is when the transition will begin. A cold air mass will
force a cold front through the entire area during the evening,
with temperatures eventually dropping below the freezing mark from
around 11 pm onward from northwest to southeast. Precipitation
will begin to expand overnight as upper level energy moves towards
the area from the northwest and a very strong upper level jet
intensifies. Initially a warm layer above freezing (800-700mb)
will be in place over the southeastern half of the CWA, but this
will be eroded in time as cold air moves in from the northwest. So
there may be an initial period of rain changing to freezing rain
then sleet and eventually snow along and south of I-44.
This transition line should push totally south of the area by late
morning Wednesday with all snow expected after that point. Models
continue to show drastic differences in the QPF fields with the
NAM remaining the most aggressive. All are showing pretty
substantial lifting from late tonight through Wednesday, and while
the NAM may be a significant outlier, I don`t want to completely
rule it out at this point. All are expecting the highest
probability of accumulating snowfall along and southeast of the
I-44 corridor which is what we have been advertising and will
continue to do so. Still have lower confidence in specific amounts
at this time due to continued model differences, but given the
intensity of the dynamics, would not be surprised to see amounts
move towards what the NAM is suggesting. Fly in ointment for this
time of year will be the higher sun angle we start seeing in March
and daytime snowfall is harder to accumulate because of this.
For now we are going with a half inch to inch in our northwestern
CWA...to 1-3 inches along the I-44 corridor...and a 3-6 inch
amount over south central MO. For ice...we are going with a
glazing to around 0.05 hundredths along and south of the I-44 corridor.
NAM holds on to snowfall through Wednesday night and the new ECMWF
to a lesser degree does as well. Have extended our snow chances
into Wednesday night because of this.
Leaning towards no headlines at this point and wait for one more
model run before making that decision.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
Everything should clear out by Thursday morning with a very cold
air mass moving into the area. The surface ridge will be directly
overhead Thursday and begin to shift to the east by Thursday
night. Coldest temperatures are expected in those locations
impacted by the snowfall and we have single digits going there
both Wednesday night and Thursday night and could see some wind
chills dip below zero.
Remainder of forecast looks dry at this point and we should see a
pattern change after the cold air shifts to the east. We should
have a moderating trend beginning late in the week and continuing
into next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1123 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
IFR conditions will be the rule this afternoon, with gusty
southwest winds expected ahead of an approaching front. Exact
timing of the front will be a challenge, but mid evening looks to
be the rule for now.
As that front passes, expect a period of gusty north winds. In
addition, areas of rain will develop across the region, with a
transition to freezing rain and then a mix of sleet, snow, and
freezing rain as temperatures cool. A change to all snow is then
expected tomorrow; that change should occur during the mid morning
hours for SGF and JLN, and late morning or early afternoon for
BBG. Again, exact timing is a challenge. Once the change to all
snow takes place, expected widespread IFR or LIFR vis.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER STORM WATCH from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday
night FOR MOZ082-083-092-096>098-104>106.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Boxell

000
FXUS63 KSGF 031727
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1127 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015
...18Z Aviation Update...
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
For today, may see some early morning drizzle associated with the
strong warm advection ongoing across the area. A shortwave and
associated cold front will begin to push into the area later today
with rain shower chances increasing...especially over the eastern
CWA. Not particularly looking for much in the way of measured
rainfall with best moisture transport to our east. Previous shift
had removed thunder from the forecast due to a lack of instability
and this still looks good. Highs today should reach the low to mid
50s across the area with the lower readings where the front will
go through the earliest in west central MO.
Tonight is when the transition will begin. A cold air mass will
force a cold front through the entire area during the evening,
with temperatures eventually dropping below the freezing mark from
around 11 pm onward from northwest to southeast. Precipitation
will begin to expand overnight as upper level energy moves towards
the area from the northwest and a very strong upper level jet
intensifies. Initially a warm layer above freezing (800-700mb)
will be in place over the southeastern half of the CWA, but this
will be eroded in time as cold air moves in from the northwest. So
there may be an initial period of rain changing to freezing rain
then sleet and eventually snow along and south of I-44.
This transition line should push totally south of the area by late
morning Wednesday with all snow expected after that point. Models
continue to show drastic differences in the QPF fields with the
NAM remaining the most aggressive. All are showing pretty
substantial lifting from late tonight through Wednesday, and while
the NAM may be a significant outlier, I don`t want to completely
rule it out at this point. All are expecting the highest
probability of accumulating snowfall along and southeast of the
I-44 corridor which is what we have been advertising and will
continue to do so. Still have lower confidence in specific amounts
at this time due to continued model differences, but given the
intensity of the dynamics, would not be surprised to see amounts
move towards what the NAM is suggesting. Fly in ointment for this
time of year will be the higher sun angle we start seeing in March
and daytime snowfall is harder to accumulate because of this.
For now we are going with a half inch to inch in our northwestern
CWA...to 1-3 inches along the I-44 corridor...and a 3-6 inch
amount over south central MO. For ice...we are going with a
glazing to around 0.05 hundredths along and south of the I-44 corridor.
NAM holds on to snowfall through Wednesday night and the new ECMWF
to a lesser degree does as well. Have extended our snow chances
into Wednesday night because of this.
Leaning towards no headlines at this point and wait for one more
model run before making that decision.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
Everything should clear out by Thursday morning with a very cold
air mass moving into the area. The surface ridge will be directly
overhead Thursday and begin to shift to the east by Thursday
night. Coldest temperatures are expected in those locations
impacted by the snowfall and we have single digits going there
both Wednesday night and Thursday night and could see some wind
chills dip below zero.
Remainder of forecast looks dry at this point and we should see a
pattern change after the cold air shifts to the east. We should
have a moderating trend beginning late in the week and continuing
into next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1123 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
IFR conditions will be the rule this afternoon, with gusty
southwest winds expected ahead of an approaching front. Exact
timing of the front will be a challenge, but mid evening looks to
be the rule for now.
As that front passes, expect a period of gusty north winds. In
addition, areas of rain will develop across the region, with a
transition to freezing rain and then a mix of sleet, snow, and
freezing rain as temperatures cool. A change to all snow is then
expected tomorrow; that change should occur during the mid morning
hours for SGF and JLN, and late morning or early afternoon for
BBG. Again, exact timing is a challenge. Once the change to all
snow takes place, expected widespread IFR or LIFR vis.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER STORM WATCH from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday
night FOR MOZ082-083-092-096>098-104>106.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Boxell

000
FXUS63 KSGF 031727
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1127 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015
...18Z Aviation Update...
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
For today, may see some early morning drizzle associated with the
strong warm advection ongoing across the area. A shortwave and
associated cold front will begin to push into the area later today
with rain shower chances increasing...especially over the eastern
CWA. Not particularly looking for much in the way of measured
rainfall with best moisture transport to our east. Previous shift
had removed thunder from the forecast due to a lack of instability
and this still looks good. Highs today should reach the low to mid
50s across the area with the lower readings where the front will
go through the earliest in west central MO.
Tonight is when the transition will begin. A cold air mass will
force a cold front through the entire area during the evening,
with temperatures eventually dropping below the freezing mark from
around 11 pm onward from northwest to southeast. Precipitation
will begin to expand overnight as upper level energy moves towards
the area from the northwest and a very strong upper level jet
intensifies. Initially a warm layer above freezing (800-700mb)
will be in place over the southeastern half of the CWA, but this
will be eroded in time as cold air moves in from the northwest. So
there may be an initial period of rain changing to freezing rain
then sleet and eventually snow along and south of I-44.
This transition line should push totally south of the area by late
morning Wednesday with all snow expected after that point. Models
continue to show drastic differences in the QPF fields with the
NAM remaining the most aggressive. All are showing pretty
substantial lifting from late tonight through Wednesday, and while
the NAM may be a significant outlier, I don`t want to completely
rule it out at this point. All are expecting the highest
probability of accumulating snowfall along and southeast of the
I-44 corridor which is what we have been advertising and will
continue to do so. Still have lower confidence in specific amounts
at this time due to continued model differences, but given the
intensity of the dynamics, would not be surprised to see amounts
move towards what the NAM is suggesting. Fly in ointment for this
time of year will be the higher sun angle we start seeing in March
and daytime snowfall is harder to accumulate because of this.
For now we are going with a half inch to inch in our northwestern
CWA...to 1-3 inches along the I-44 corridor...and a 3-6 inch
amount over south central MO. For ice...we are going with a
glazing to around 0.05 hundredths along and south of the I-44 corridor.
NAM holds on to snowfall through Wednesday night and the new ECMWF
to a lesser degree does as well. Have extended our snow chances
into Wednesday night because of this.
Leaning towards no headlines at this point and wait for one more
model run before making that decision.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
Everything should clear out by Thursday morning with a very cold
air mass moving into the area. The surface ridge will be directly
overhead Thursday and begin to shift to the east by Thursday
night. Coldest temperatures are expected in those locations
impacted by the snowfall and we have single digits going there
both Wednesday night and Thursday night and could see some wind
chills dip below zero.
Remainder of forecast looks dry at this point and we should see a
pattern change after the cold air shifts to the east. We should
have a moderating trend beginning late in the week and continuing
into next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1123 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
IFR conditions will be the rule this afternoon, with gusty
southwest winds expected ahead of an approaching front. Exact
timing of the front will be a challenge, but mid evening looks to
be the rule for now.
As that front passes, expect a period of gusty north winds. In
addition, areas of rain will develop across the region, with a
transition to freezing rain and then a mix of sleet, snow, and
freezing rain as temperatures cool. A change to all snow is then
expected tomorrow; that change should occur during the mid morning
hours for SGF and JLN, and late morning or early afternoon for
BBG. Again, exact timing is a challenge. Once the change to all
snow takes place, expected widespread IFR or LIFR vis.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER STORM WATCH from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday
night FOR MOZ082-083-092-096>098-104>106.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Boxell

000
FXUS63 KSGF 031138
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
538 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
Warm air advection was in progress across the area early this
morning with fairly stout southwesterly 850 mb winds of 35 to 45
kts. Dewpoints in the southwest CWA were already recovering into
the mid 30s and temperatures were around freezing or above across
the whole CWA. Parts of south central MO may remain at or just
below freezing through the night, but not expecting the
precipitation to really develop until after it warms above
freezing.
Main focus will be with the wintry precipitation expected
beginning tonight and continuing through Wednesday night.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
For today, may see some early morning drizzle associated with the
strong warm advection ongoing across the area. A shortwave and
associated cold front will begin to push into the area later today
with rain shower chances increasing...especially over the eastern
CWA. Not particularly looking for much in the way of measured
rainfall with best moisture transport to our east. Previous shift
had removed thunder from the forecast due to a lack of instability
and this still looks good. Highs today should reach the low to mid
50s across the area with the lower readings where the front will
go through the earliest in west central MO.
Tonight is when the transition will begin. A cold air mass will
force a cold front through the entire area during the evening,
with temperatures eventually dropping below the freezing mark from
around 11 pm onward from northwest to southeast. Precipitation
will begin to expand overnight as upper level energy moves towards
the area from the northwest and a very strong upper level jet
intensifies. Initially a warm layer above freezing (800-700mb)
will be in place over the southeastern half of the CWA, but this
will be eroded in time as cold air moves in from the northwest. So
there may be an initial period of rain changing to freezing rain
then sleet and eventually snow along and south of I-44.
This transition line should push totally south of the area by late
morning Wednesday with all snow expected after that point. Models
continue to show drastic differences in the QPF fields with the
NAM remaining the most aggressive. All are showing pretty
substantial lifting from late tonight through Wednesday, and while
the NAM may be a significant outlier, I don`t want to completely
rule it out at this point. All are expecting the highest
probability of accumulating snowfall along and southeast of the
I-44 corridor which is what we have been advertising and will
continue to do so. Still have lower confidence in specific amounts
at this time due to continued model differences, but given the
intensity of the dynamics, would not be surprised to see amounts
move towards what the NAM is suggesting. Fly in ointment for this
time of year will be the higher sun angle we start seeing in March
and daytime snowfall is harder to accumulate because of this.
For now we are going with a half inch to inch in our northwestern
CWA...to 1-3 inches along the I-44 corridor...and a 3-6 inch
amount over south central MO. For ice...we are going with a
glazing to around 0.05 hundredths along and south of the I-44 corridor.
NAM holds on to snowfall through Wednesday night and the new ECMWF
to a lesser degree does as well. Have extended our snow chances
into Wednesday night because of this.
Leaning towards no headlines at this point and wait for one more
model run before making that decision.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
Everything should clear out by Thursday morning with a very cold
air mass moving into the area. The surface ridge will be directly
overhead Thursday and begin to shift to the east by Thursday
night. Coldest temperatures are expected in those locations
impacted by the snowfall and we have single digits going there
both Wednesday night and Thursday night and could see some wind
chills dip below zero.
Remainder of forecast looks dry at this point and we should see a
pattern change after the cold air shifts to the east. We should
have a moderating trend beginning late in the week and continuing
into next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 525 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
Warm air advection ahead of the next storm system flowing over
the cold snow snow pack was creating generally IFR conditions
within the aerodrome region this morning. Expect these conditions to
continue through most of the day ahead of the front. With the
strong winds aloft...also anticipating a low level wind shear threat
through about 18z.
Surface front is forecast to move through the area around 00z.
Rain will initially develop along and behind the front but will
transition over to snow as temperatures fall below freezing.
Expect this transition in the KSGF/KJLN area around 07z and at
KBBG around 11z.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER STORM WATCH from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday
night FOR MOZ082-083-092-096>098-104>106.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Gaede

000
FXUS63 KSGF 031138
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
538 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
Warm air advection was in progress across the area early this
morning with fairly stout southwesterly 850 mb winds of 35 to 45
kts. Dewpoints in the southwest CWA were already recovering into
the mid 30s and temperatures were around freezing or above across
the whole CWA. Parts of south central MO may remain at or just
below freezing through the night, but not expecting the
precipitation to really develop until after it warms above
freezing.
Main focus will be with the wintry precipitation expected
beginning tonight and continuing through Wednesday night.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
For today, may see some early morning drizzle associated with the
strong warm advection ongoing across the area. A shortwave and
associated cold front will begin to push into the area later today
with rain shower chances increasing...especially over the eastern
CWA. Not particularly looking for much in the way of measured
rainfall with best moisture transport to our east. Previous shift
had removed thunder from the forecast due to a lack of instability
and this still looks good. Highs today should reach the low to mid
50s across the area with the lower readings where the front will
go through the earliest in west central MO.
Tonight is when the transition will begin. A cold air mass will
force a cold front through the entire area during the evening,
with temperatures eventually dropping below the freezing mark from
around 11 pm onward from northwest to southeast. Precipitation
will begin to expand overnight as upper level energy moves towards
the area from the northwest and a very strong upper level jet
intensifies. Initially a warm layer above freezing (800-700mb)
will be in place over the southeastern half of the CWA, but this
will be eroded in time as cold air moves in from the northwest. So
there may be an initial period of rain changing to freezing rain
then sleet and eventually snow along and south of I-44.
This transition line should push totally south of the area by late
morning Wednesday with all snow expected after that point. Models
continue to show drastic differences in the QPF fields with the
NAM remaining the most aggressive. All are showing pretty
substantial lifting from late tonight through Wednesday, and while
the NAM may be a significant outlier, I don`t want to completely
rule it out at this point. All are expecting the highest
probability of accumulating snowfall along and southeast of the
I-44 corridor which is what we have been advertising and will
continue to do so. Still have lower confidence in specific amounts
at this time due to continued model differences, but given the
intensity of the dynamics, would not be surprised to see amounts
move towards what the NAM is suggesting. Fly in ointment for this
time of year will be the higher sun angle we start seeing in March
and daytime snowfall is harder to accumulate because of this.
For now we are going with a half inch to inch in our northwestern
CWA...to 1-3 inches along the I-44 corridor...and a 3-6 inch
amount over south central MO. For ice...we are going with a
glazing to around 0.05 hundredths along and south of the I-44 corridor.
NAM holds on to snowfall through Wednesday night and the new ECMWF
to a lesser degree does as well. Have extended our snow chances
into Wednesday night because of this.
Leaning towards no headlines at this point and wait for one more
model run before making that decision.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
Everything should clear out by Thursday morning with a very cold
air mass moving into the area. The surface ridge will be directly
overhead Thursday and begin to shift to the east by Thursday
night. Coldest temperatures are expected in those locations
impacted by the snowfall and we have single digits going there
both Wednesday night and Thursday night and could see some wind
chills dip below zero.
Remainder of forecast looks dry at this point and we should see a
pattern change after the cold air shifts to the east. We should
have a moderating trend beginning late in the week and continuing
into next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 525 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
Warm air advection ahead of the next storm system flowing over
the cold snow snow pack was creating generally IFR conditions
within the aerodrome region this morning. Expect these conditions to
continue through most of the day ahead of the front. With the
strong winds aloft...also anticipating a low level wind shear threat
through about 18z.
Surface front is forecast to move through the area around 00z.
Rain will initially develop along and behind the front but will
transition over to snow as temperatures fall below freezing.
Expect this transition in the KSGF/KJLN area around 07z and at
KBBG around 11z.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER STORM WATCH from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday
night FOR MOZ082-083-092-096>098-104>106.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Gaede

000
FXUS63 KSGF 031138
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
538 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
Warm air advection was in progress across the area early this
morning with fairly stout southwesterly 850 mb winds of 35 to 45
kts. Dewpoints in the southwest CWA were already recovering into
the mid 30s and temperatures were around freezing or above across
the whole CWA. Parts of south central MO may remain at or just
below freezing through the night, but not expecting the
precipitation to really develop until after it warms above
freezing.
Main focus will be with the wintry precipitation expected
beginning tonight and continuing through Wednesday night.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
For today, may see some early morning drizzle associated with the
strong warm advection ongoing across the area. A shortwave and
associated cold front will begin to push into the area later today
with rain shower chances increasing...especially over the eastern
CWA. Not particularly looking for much in the way of measured
rainfall with best moisture transport to our east. Previous shift
had removed thunder from the forecast due to a lack of instability
and this still looks good. Highs today should reach the low to mid
50s across the area with the lower readings where the front will
go through the earliest in west central MO.
Tonight is when the transition will begin. A cold air mass will
force a cold front through the entire area during the evening,
with temperatures eventually dropping below the freezing mark from
around 11 pm onward from northwest to southeast. Precipitation
will begin to expand overnight as upper level energy moves towards
the area from the northwest and a very strong upper level jet
intensifies. Initially a warm layer above freezing (800-700mb)
will be in place over the southeastern half of the CWA, but this
will be eroded in time as cold air moves in from the northwest. So
there may be an initial period of rain changing to freezing rain
then sleet and eventually snow along and south of I-44.
This transition line should push totally south of the area by late
morning Wednesday with all snow expected after that point. Models
continue to show drastic differences in the QPF fields with the
NAM remaining the most aggressive. All are showing pretty
substantial lifting from late tonight through Wednesday, and while
the NAM may be a significant outlier, I don`t want to completely
rule it out at this point. All are expecting the highest
probability of accumulating snowfall along and southeast of the
I-44 corridor which is what we have been advertising and will
continue to do so. Still have lower confidence in specific amounts
at this time due to continued model differences, but given the
intensity of the dynamics, would not be surprised to see amounts
move towards what the NAM is suggesting. Fly in ointment for this
time of year will be the higher sun angle we start seeing in March
and daytime snowfall is harder to accumulate because of this.
For now we are going with a half inch to inch in our northwestern
CWA...to 1-3 inches along the I-44 corridor...and a 3-6 inch
amount over south central MO. For ice...we are going with a
glazing to around 0.05 hundredths along and south of the I-44 corridor.
NAM holds on to snowfall through Wednesday night and the new ECMWF
to a lesser degree does as well. Have extended our snow chances
into Wednesday night because of this.
Leaning towards no headlines at this point and wait for one more
model run before making that decision.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
Everything should clear out by Thursday morning with a very cold
air mass moving into the area. The surface ridge will be directly
overhead Thursday and begin to shift to the east by Thursday
night. Coldest temperatures are expected in those locations
impacted by the snowfall and we have single digits going there
both Wednesday night and Thursday night and could see some wind
chills dip below zero.
Remainder of forecast looks dry at this point and we should see a
pattern change after the cold air shifts to the east. We should
have a moderating trend beginning late in the week and continuing
into next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 525 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
Warm air advection ahead of the next storm system flowing over
the cold snow snow pack was creating generally IFR conditions
within the aerodrome region this morning. Expect these conditions to
continue through most of the day ahead of the front. With the
strong winds aloft...also anticipating a low level wind shear threat
through about 18z.
Surface front is forecast to move through the area around 00z.
Rain will initially develop along and behind the front but will
transition over to snow as temperatures fall below freezing.
Expect this transition in the KSGF/KJLN area around 07z and at
KBBG around 11z.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER STORM WATCH from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday
night FOR MOZ082-083-092-096>098-104>106.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Gaede

000
FXUS63 KSGF 031138
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
538 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
Warm air advection was in progress across the area early this
morning with fairly stout southwesterly 850 mb winds of 35 to 45
kts. Dewpoints in the southwest CWA were already recovering into
the mid 30s and temperatures were around freezing or above across
the whole CWA. Parts of south central MO may remain at or just
below freezing through the night, but not expecting the
precipitation to really develop until after it warms above
freezing.
Main focus will be with the wintry precipitation expected
beginning tonight and continuing through Wednesday night.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
For today, may see some early morning drizzle associated with the
strong warm advection ongoing across the area. A shortwave and
associated cold front will begin to push into the area later today
with rain shower chances increasing...especially over the eastern
CWA. Not particularly looking for much in the way of measured
rainfall with best moisture transport to our east. Previous shift
had removed thunder from the forecast due to a lack of instability
and this still looks good. Highs today should reach the low to mid
50s across the area with the lower readings where the front will
go through the earliest in west central MO.
Tonight is when the transition will begin. A cold air mass will
force a cold front through the entire area during the evening,
with temperatures eventually dropping below the freezing mark from
around 11 pm onward from northwest to southeast. Precipitation
will begin to expand overnight as upper level energy moves towards
the area from the northwest and a very strong upper level jet
intensifies. Initially a warm layer above freezing (800-700mb)
will be in place over the southeastern half of the CWA, but this
will be eroded in time as cold air moves in from the northwest. So
there may be an initial period of rain changing to freezing rain
then sleet and eventually snow along and south of I-44.
This transition line should push totally south of the area by late
morning Wednesday with all snow expected after that point. Models
continue to show drastic differences in the QPF fields with the
NAM remaining the most aggressive. All are showing pretty
substantial lifting from late tonight through Wednesday, and while
the NAM may be a significant outlier, I don`t want to completely
rule it out at this point. All are expecting the highest
probability of accumulating snowfall along and southeast of the
I-44 corridor which is what we have been advertising and will
continue to do so. Still have lower confidence in specific amounts
at this time due to continued model differences, but given the
intensity of the dynamics, would not be surprised to see amounts
move towards what the NAM is suggesting. Fly in ointment for this
time of year will be the higher sun angle we start seeing in March
and daytime snowfall is harder to accumulate because of this.
For now we are going with a half inch to inch in our northwestern
CWA...to 1-3 inches along the I-44 corridor...and a 3-6 inch
amount over south central MO. For ice...we are going with a
glazing to around 0.05 hundredths along and south of the I-44 corridor.
NAM holds on to snowfall through Wednesday night and the new ECMWF
to a lesser degree does as well. Have extended our snow chances
into Wednesday night because of this.
Leaning towards no headlines at this point and wait for one more
model run before making that decision.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
Everything should clear out by Thursday morning with a very cold
air mass moving into the area. The surface ridge will be directly
overhead Thursday and begin to shift to the east by Thursday
night. Coldest temperatures are expected in those locations
impacted by the snowfall and we have single digits going there
both Wednesday night and Thursday night and could see some wind
chills dip below zero.
Remainder of forecast looks dry at this point and we should see a
pattern change after the cold air shifts to the east. We should
have a moderating trend beginning late in the week and continuing
into next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 525 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
Warm air advection ahead of the next storm system flowing over
the cold snow snow pack was creating generally IFR conditions
within the aerodrome region this morning. Expect these conditions to
continue through most of the day ahead of the front. With the
strong winds aloft...also anticipating a low level wind shear threat
through about 18z.
Surface front is forecast to move through the area around 00z.
Rain will initially develop along and behind the front but will
transition over to snow as temperatures fall below freezing.
Expect this transition in the KSGF/KJLN area around 07z and at
KBBG around 11z.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER STORM WATCH from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday
night FOR MOZ082-083-092-096>098-104>106.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Gaede

000
FXUS63 KSGF 030841
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
241 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
Warm air advection was in progress across the area early this
morning with fairly stout southwesterly 850 mb winds of 35 to 45
kts. Dewpoints ni the southwest CWA were already recovering into
the mid 30s and temperatures were around freezing or above across
the whole CWA. Parts of south central MO may remain at or just
below freezing through the night, but not expecting the
precipitation to really develop until after it warms above freezing.
Main focus will be with the wintry precipitation expected
beginning tonight and continuing through Wednesday night.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
For today, may see some early morning drizzle associated with the
strong warm advection ongoing across the area. A shortwave and
associated cold front will begin to push into the area later today
with rain shower chances increasing...especially over the eastern
CWA. Not particularly looking for much in the way of measured
rainfall with best moisture transport to our east. Previous shift
had removed thunder from the forecast due to a lack of instability
and this still looks good. Highs today should reach the low to mid
50s across the area with the lower readings where the front will
go through the earliest in west central MO.
Tonight is when the transition will begin. A cold air mass will
force a cold front through the entire area during the evening,
with temperatures eventually dropping below the freezing mark from
around 11 pm onward from northwest to southeast. Precipitation
will begin to expand overnight as upper level energy moves towards
the area from the northwest and a very strong upper level jet
intensifies. Initially a warm layer above freezing (800-700mb)
will be in place over the southeastern half of the CWA, but this
will be eroded in time as cold air moves in from the northwest. So
there may be an initial period of rain changing to freezing rain
then sleet and eventually snow along and south of I-44.
This transition line should push totally south of the area by late
morning Wednesday with all snow expected after that point. Models
continue to show drastic differences in the QPF fields with the
NAM remaining the most aggressive. All are showing pretty
substantial lifting from late tonight through Wednesday, and while
the NAM may be a significant outlier, I don`t want to completely
rule it out at this point. All are expecting the highest
probability of accumulating snowfall along and southeast of the
I44 corridor which is what we have been advertising and will
continue to do so. Still have lower confidence in specific amounts
at this time due to continued model differences, but given the
intensity of the dynamics, would not be surprised to see amounts
move towards what the NAM is suggesting. Fly in ointment for this
time of year will be the higher sun angle we start seeing in March
and daytime snowfall is harder to accumulate because of this.
For now we are going with a half inch to inch in our northwestern
CWA...to 1-3 inches along the I-44 corridor...and a 3-6 inch
amount over south central MO. For ice...we are going with a
glazing to around 0.05 hundredths along and south of the I-44 corridor.
NAM holds on to snowfall through Wednesday night and the new ECMWF
to a lesser degree does as well. Have extended our snow chances
into Wednesday night because of this.
Leaning towards no headlines at this point and wait for one more
model run before making that decision.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
Everything should clear out by Thursday morning with a very cold
air mass moving into the area. The surface ridge will be directly
overhead Thursday and begin to shift to the east by Thursday
night. Coldest temperatures are expected in those locations
impacted by the snowfall and we have single digits going there
both Wednesday night and Thursday night and could see some wind
chills dip below zero.
Remainder of forecast looks dry at this point and we should see a
pattern change after the cold air shifts to the east. We should
have a moderating trend beginning late in the week and continuing
into next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A strong cold front will pass through
the region late in the taf period. Veering sfc s-sw sfc winds
ahead of the front will continue to transport low level moisture
n-ne into the region with lowering MVFR then IFR ceilings and some
ocnl light drizzle/light rain developing. We may see some modest
improvement in flight conditions during the day after 16z-18z, but
lowering ceilings are again expected behind the front after
04/00z.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...DSA

000
FXUS63 KSGF 030841
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
241 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
Warm air advection was in progress across the area early this
morning with fairly stout southwesterly 850 mb winds of 35 to 45
kts. Dewpoints ni the southwest CWA were already recovering into
the mid 30s and temperatures were around freezing or above across
the whole CWA. Parts of south central MO may remain at or just
below freezing through the night, but not expecting the
precipitation to really develop until after it warms above freezing.
Main focus will be with the wintry precipitation expected
beginning tonight and continuing through Wednesday night.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
For today, may see some early morning drizzle associated with the
strong warm advection ongoing across the area. A shortwave and
associated cold front will begin to push into the area later today
with rain shower chances increasing...especially over the eastern
CWA. Not particularly looking for much in the way of measured
rainfall with best moisture transport to our east. Previous shift
had removed thunder from the forecast due to a lack of instability
and this still looks good. Highs today should reach the low to mid
50s across the area with the lower readings where the front will
go through the earliest in west central MO.
Tonight is when the transition will begin. A cold air mass will
force a cold front through the entire area during the evening,
with temperatures eventually dropping below the freezing mark from
around 11 pm onward from northwest to southeast. Precipitation
will begin to expand overnight as upper level energy moves towards
the area from the northwest and a very strong upper level jet
intensifies. Initially a warm layer above freezing (800-700mb)
will be in place over the southeastern half of the CWA, but this
will be eroded in time as cold air moves in from the northwest. So
there may be an initial period of rain changing to freezing rain
then sleet and eventually snow along and south of I-44.
This transition line should push totally south of the area by late
morning Wednesday with all snow expected after that point. Models
continue to show drastic differences in the QPF fields with the
NAM remaining the most aggressive. All are showing pretty
substantial lifting from late tonight through Wednesday, and while
the NAM may be a significant outlier, I don`t want to completely
rule it out at this point. All are expecting the highest
probability of accumulating snowfall along and southeast of the
I44 corridor which is what we have been advertising and will
continue to do so. Still have lower confidence in specific amounts
at this time due to continued model differences, but given the
intensity of the dynamics, would not be surprised to see amounts
move towards what the NAM is suggesting. Fly in ointment for this
time of year will be the higher sun angle we start seeing in March
and daytime snowfall is harder to accumulate because of this.
For now we are going with a half inch to inch in our northwestern
CWA...to 1-3 inches along the I-44 corridor...and a 3-6 inch
amount over south central MO. For ice...we are going with a
glazing to around 0.05 hundredths along and south of the I-44 corridor.
NAM holds on to snowfall through Wednesday night and the new ECMWF
to a lesser degree does as well. Have extended our snow chances
into Wednesday night because of this.
Leaning towards no headlines at this point and wait for one more
model run before making that decision.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
Everything should clear out by Thursday morning with a very cold
air mass moving into the area. The surface ridge will be directly
overhead Thursday and begin to shift to the east by Thursday
night. Coldest temperatures are expected in those locations
impacted by the snowfall and we have single digits going there
both Wednesday night and Thursday night and could see some wind
chills dip below zero.
Remainder of forecast looks dry at this point and we should see a
pattern change after the cold air shifts to the east. We should
have a moderating trend beginning late in the week and continuing
into next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A strong cold front will pass through
the region late in the taf period. Veering sfc s-sw sfc winds
ahead of the front will continue to transport low level moisture
n-ne into the region with lowering MVFR then IFR ceilings and some
ocnl light drizzle/light rain developing. We may see some modest
improvement in flight conditions during the day after 16z-18z, but
lowering ceilings are again expected behind the front after
04/00z.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...DSA

000
FXUS63 KSGF 030841
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
241 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
Warm air advection was in progress across the area early this
morning with fairly stout southwesterly 850 mb winds of 35 to 45
kts. Dewpoints ni the southwest CWA were already recovering into
the mid 30s and temperatures were around freezing or above across
the whole CWA. Parts of south central MO may remain at or just
below freezing through the night, but not expecting the
precipitation to really develop until after it warms above freezing.
Main focus will be with the wintry precipitation expected
beginning tonight and continuing through Wednesday night.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
For today, may see some early morning drizzle associated with the
strong warm advection ongoing across the area. A shortwave and
associated cold front will begin to push into the area later today
with rain shower chances increasing...especially over the eastern
CWA. Not particularly looking for much in the way of measured
rainfall with best moisture transport to our east. Previous shift
had removed thunder from the forecast due to a lack of instability
and this still looks good. Highs today should reach the low to mid
50s across the area with the lower readings where the front will
go through the earliest in west central MO.
Tonight is when the transition will begin. A cold air mass will
force a cold front through the entire area during the evening,
with temperatures eventually dropping below the freezing mark from
around 11 pm onward from northwest to southeast. Precipitation
will begin to expand overnight as upper level energy moves towards
the area from the northwest and a very strong upper level jet
intensifies. Initially a warm layer above freezing (800-700mb)
will be in place over the southeastern half of the CWA, but this
will be eroded in time as cold air moves in from the northwest. So
there may be an initial period of rain changing to freezing rain
then sleet and eventually snow along and south of I-44.
This transition line should push totally south of the area by late
morning Wednesday with all snow expected after that point. Models
continue to show drastic differences in the QPF fields with the
NAM remaining the most aggressive. All are showing pretty
substantial lifting from late tonight through Wednesday, and while
the NAM may be a significant outlier, I don`t want to completely
rule it out at this point. All are expecting the highest
probability of accumulating snowfall along and southeast of the
I44 corridor which is what we have been advertising and will
continue to do so. Still have lower confidence in specific amounts
at this time due to continued model differences, but given the
intensity of the dynamics, would not be surprised to see amounts
move towards what the NAM is suggesting. Fly in ointment for this
time of year will be the higher sun angle we start seeing in March
and daytime snowfall is harder to accumulate because of this.
For now we are going with a half inch to inch in our northwestern
CWA...to 1-3 inches along the I-44 corridor...and a 3-6 inch
amount over south central MO. For ice...we are going with a
glazing to around 0.05 hundredths along and south of the I-44 corridor.
NAM holds on to snowfall through Wednesday night and the new ECMWF
to a lesser degree does as well. Have extended our snow chances
into Wednesday night because of this.
Leaning towards no headlines at this point and wait for one more
model run before making that decision.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
Everything should clear out by Thursday morning with a very cold
air mass moving into the area. The surface ridge will be directly
overhead Thursday and begin to shift to the east by Thursday
night. Coldest temperatures are expected in those locations
impacted by the snowfall and we have single digits going there
both Wednesday night and Thursday night and could see some wind
chills dip below zero.
Remainder of forecast looks dry at this point and we should see a
pattern change after the cold air shifts to the east. We should
have a moderating trend beginning late in the week and continuing
into next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A strong cold front will pass through
the region late in the taf period. Veering sfc s-sw sfc winds
ahead of the front will continue to transport low level moisture
n-ne into the region with lowering MVFR then IFR ceilings and some
ocnl light drizzle/light rain developing. We may see some modest
improvement in flight conditions during the day after 16z-18z, but
lowering ceilings are again expected behind the front after
04/00z.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...DSA

000
FXUS63 KSGF 030841
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
241 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
Warm air advection was in progress across the area early this
morning with fairly stout southwesterly 850 mb winds of 35 to 45
kts. Dewpoints ni the southwest CWA were already recovering into
the mid 30s and temperatures were around freezing or above across
the whole CWA. Parts of south central MO may remain at or just
below freezing through the night, but not expecting the
precipitation to really develop until after it warms above freezing.
Main focus will be with the wintry precipitation expected
beginning tonight and continuing through Wednesday night.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
For today, may see some early morning drizzle associated with the
strong warm advection ongoing across the area. A shortwave and
associated cold front will begin to push into the area later today
with rain shower chances increasing...especially over the eastern
CWA. Not particularly looking for much in the way of measured
rainfall with best moisture transport to our east. Previous shift
had removed thunder from the forecast due to a lack of instability
and this still looks good. Highs today should reach the low to mid
50s across the area with the lower readings where the front will
go through the earliest in west central MO.
Tonight is when the transition will begin. A cold air mass will
force a cold front through the entire area during the evening,
with temperatures eventually dropping below the freezing mark from
around 11 pm onward from northwest to southeast. Precipitation
will begin to expand overnight as upper level energy moves towards
the area from the northwest and a very strong upper level jet
intensifies. Initially a warm layer above freezing (800-700mb)
will be in place over the southeastern half of the CWA, but this
will be eroded in time as cold air moves in from the northwest. So
there may be an initial period of rain changing to freezing rain
then sleet and eventually snow along and south of I-44.
This transition line should push totally south of the area by late
morning Wednesday with all snow expected after that point. Models
continue to show drastic differences in the QPF fields with the
NAM remaining the most aggressive. All are showing pretty
substantial lifting from late tonight through Wednesday, and while
the NAM may be a significant outlier, I don`t want to completely
rule it out at this point. All are expecting the highest
probability of accumulating snowfall along and southeast of the
I44 corridor which is what we have been advertising and will
continue to do so. Still have lower confidence in specific amounts
at this time due to continued model differences, but given the
intensity of the dynamics, would not be surprised to see amounts
move towards what the NAM is suggesting. Fly in ointment for this
time of year will be the higher sun angle we start seeing in March
and daytime snowfall is harder to accumulate because of this.
For now we are going with a half inch to inch in our northwestern
CWA...to 1-3 inches along the I-44 corridor...and a 3-6 inch
amount over south central MO. For ice...we are going with a
glazing to around 0.05 hundredths along and south of the I-44 corridor.
NAM holds on to snowfall through Wednesday night and the new ECMWF
to a lesser degree does as well. Have extended our snow chances
into Wednesday night because of this.
Leaning towards no headlines at this point and wait for one more
model run before making that decision.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 240 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015
Everything should clear out by Thursday morning with a very cold
air mass moving into the area. The surface ridge will be directly
overhead Thursday and begin to shift to the east by Thursday
night. Coldest temperatures are expected in those locations
impacted by the snowfall and we have single digits going there
both Wednesday night and Thursday night and could see some wind
chills dip below zero.
Remainder of forecast looks dry at this point and we should see a
pattern change after the cold air shifts to the east. We should
have a moderating trend beginning late in the week and continuing
into next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A strong cold front will pass through
the region late in the taf period. Veering sfc s-sw sfc winds
ahead of the front will continue to transport low level moisture
n-ne into the region with lowering MVFR then IFR ceilings and some
ocnl light drizzle/light rain developing. We may see some modest
improvement in flight conditions during the day after 16z-18z, but
lowering ceilings are again expected behind the front after
04/00z.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...DSA

000
FXUS63 KSGF 030554
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1154 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 256 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015
A quiet weather day is underway across the region this Monday
afternoon, with temperatures rising into the mid to upper 30s under
mostly cloudy skies. Light southeasterly winds will become
southerly and increase through the evening and overnight hours
tonight, as high pressure pulls east and a surface low rapidly
deepens in the lee of the Rockies.
This southerly flow will begin to advect a (relatively) more mild
air mass into the region overnight, characterized by low to mid 30s
dew points. As this air mass moves over the existing snow, fog and
drizzle should be a good bet from this evening through the overnight
hours. Right now, it looks like winds should be strong enough to
keep things mainly drizzle vs. fog, though some reduced visibility
is certainly possible along the higher terrain of the Plateau.
Temperatures this evening should fall a couple of degrees, before
leveling off and then rising during the pre-dawn hours. While a few
spots across the eastern Ozarks may briefly dip below freezing
tonight, it appears that temperatures should rise above 32 before
precipitation begins. Thus, will not include mention of any
freezing drizzle at this time.
Drizzle should generally give way to scattered rain showers during
the day Tuesday, as temperatures warm into the low 50s ahead of an
approaching front. The trend over the last few days has been
slightly cooler with less available instability, with this morning`s
12Z guidance all but zeroing out CAPE. As such, will go ahead and
remove thunder mention from the forecast for Tuesday. While an
isolated rumble or two isn`t entirely out of the question, chances
just appear to be too low to justify mention.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 256 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015
The cold front should then sweep across the area from northwest to
southeast Tuesday during the late afternoon and evening hours, with
much colder air building in behind the front. Precipitation will
initially be shunted southeast with the front, but then should build
back to the north in a post-frontal fashion as very strong upper
level jet streak backbuilds from the Great Lakes into the Ozarks and
southern Plains. Combined with what should be several well
developed areas of low and mid level frontogenesis associated with
the front, this looks to be a good setup for deep tropospheric
ascent across the region, with the potential for several bands of
moderate to even heavy snow given the f-gen. Right now, the biggest
challenge remains pin-pointing where these bands setup; it does
appear that areas south of I-44 will be most favored for the higher
snow accumulations, with lesser amounts north. There will be a sharp
gradient to the northern edge of the snowfall, so locations along
the I-44 corridor, including Joplin, Springfield, and Rolla, should
be prepared for the possibility of significant changes to the
forecast based on just a 20-30 mile shift in the system.
Along with determining the areas of heaviest precipitation, two
other factors will likely have an impact on the snowfall forecast.
The first will be the possibility of mixed precipitation as the very
cold low level frontal air mass undercuts warmer temperatures aloft
Tuesday night and early Wednesday, resulting in a temporary warm
nose. This may be enough to result in a few hours of a mix of snow,
freezing rain, and sleet, before things change over entirely to
snow. The other issue will be the early March sun angle given what
will be mainly daytime accumulation on Wednesday. This will
probably cut down amounts compared to what would otherwise
accumulate if it were after dark.
So, with all that said, will be going with a broad 3-5" area of snow
south of I-44, with lesser 1-3" amounts along and north of the
Interstate. Given the expected banding, locally higher and lower
amounts are likely. Since confidence is pretty low that any
locations will reach the 6" mark, will hold off on a Winter Storm
Watch for now. Will highlight the expected winter event with a
Special Weather Statement.
After a cold night Wednesday night and a rather chilly day on
Thursday, guidance continues to suggest a somewhat significant
pattern change heading into the weekend and next week. The overall
CONUS pattern looks to translate east, meaning that the cold eastern
trough that has been affecting the region for the last month or two
will give way to a warmer and drier western US ridge. This should
allow temperatures to rise into the 50s by the beginning of next
week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A strong cold front will pass through
the region late in the taf period. Veering sfc s-sw sfc winds
ahead of the front will continue to transport low level moisture
n-ne into the region with lowering MVFR then IFR ceilings and some
ocnl light drizzle/light rain developing. We may see some modest
improvement in flight conditions during the day after 16z-18z, but
lowering ceilings are again expected behind the front after
04/00z.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...DSA

000
FXUS63 KSGF 030554
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1154 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 256 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015
A quiet weather day is underway across the region this Monday
afternoon, with temperatures rising into the mid to upper 30s under
mostly cloudy skies. Light southeasterly winds will become
southerly and increase through the evening and overnight hours
tonight, as high pressure pulls east and a surface low rapidly
deepens in the lee of the Rockies.
This southerly flow will begin to advect a (relatively) more mild
air mass into the region overnight, characterized by low to mid 30s
dew points. As this air mass moves over the existing snow, fog and
drizzle should be a good bet from this evening through the overnight
hours. Right now, it looks like winds should be strong enough to
keep things mainly drizzle vs. fog, though some reduced visibility
is certainly possible along the higher terrain of the Plateau.
Temperatures this evening should fall a couple of degrees, before
leveling off and then rising during the pre-dawn hours. While a few
spots across the eastern Ozarks may briefly dip below freezing
tonight, it appears that temperatures should rise above 32 before
precipitation begins. Thus, will not include mention of any
freezing drizzle at this time.
Drizzle should generally give way to scattered rain showers during
the day Tuesday, as temperatures warm into the low 50s ahead of an
approaching front. The trend over the last few days has been
slightly cooler with less available instability, with this morning`s
12Z guidance all but zeroing out CAPE. As such, will go ahead and
remove thunder mention from the forecast for Tuesday. While an
isolated rumble or two isn`t entirely out of the question, chances
just appear to be too low to justify mention.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 256 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015
The cold front should then sweep across the area from northwest to
southeast Tuesday during the late afternoon and evening hours, with
much colder air building in behind the front. Precipitation will
initially be shunted southeast with the front, but then should build
back to the north in a post-frontal fashion as very strong upper
level jet streak backbuilds from the Great Lakes into the Ozarks and
southern Plains. Combined with what should be several well
developed areas of low and mid level frontogenesis associated with
the front, this looks to be a good setup for deep tropospheric
ascent across the region, with the potential for several bands of
moderate to even heavy snow given the f-gen. Right now, the biggest
challenge remains pin-pointing where these bands setup; it does
appear that areas south of I-44 will be most favored for the higher
snow accumulations, with lesser amounts north. There will be a sharp
gradient to the northern edge of the snowfall, so locations along
the I-44 corridor, including Joplin, Springfield, and Rolla, should
be prepared for the possibility of significant changes to the
forecast based on just a 20-30 mile shift in the system.
Along with determining the areas of heaviest precipitation, two
other factors will likely have an impact on the snowfall forecast.
The first will be the possibility of mixed precipitation as the very
cold low level frontal air mass undercuts warmer temperatures aloft
Tuesday night and early Wednesday, resulting in a temporary warm
nose. This may be enough to result in a few hours of a mix of snow,
freezing rain, and sleet, before things change over entirely to
snow. The other issue will be the early March sun angle given what
will be mainly daytime accumulation on Wednesday. This will
probably cut down amounts compared to what would otherwise
accumulate if it were after dark.
So, with all that said, will be going with a broad 3-5" area of snow
south of I-44, with lesser 1-3" amounts along and north of the
Interstate. Given the expected banding, locally higher and lower
amounts are likely. Since confidence is pretty low that any
locations will reach the 6" mark, will hold off on a Winter Storm
Watch for now. Will highlight the expected winter event with a
Special Weather Statement.
After a cold night Wednesday night and a rather chilly day on
Thursday, guidance continues to suggest a somewhat significant
pattern change heading into the weekend and next week. The overall
CONUS pattern looks to translate east, meaning that the cold eastern
trough that has been affecting the region for the last month or two
will give way to a warmer and drier western US ridge. This should
allow temperatures to rise into the 50s by the beginning of next
week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A strong cold front will pass through
the region late in the taf period. Veering sfc s-sw sfc winds
ahead of the front will continue to transport low level moisture
n-ne into the region with lowering MVFR then IFR ceilings and some
ocnl light drizzle/light rain developing. We may see some modest
improvement in flight conditions during the day after 16z-18z, but
lowering ceilings are again expected behind the front after
04/00z.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...DSA

000
FXUS63 KSGF 030554
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1154 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 256 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015
A quiet weather day is underway across the region this Monday
afternoon, with temperatures rising into the mid to upper 30s under
mostly cloudy skies. Light southeasterly winds will become
southerly and increase through the evening and overnight hours
tonight, as high pressure pulls east and a surface low rapidly
deepens in the lee of the Rockies.
This southerly flow will begin to advect a (relatively) more mild
air mass into the region overnight, characterized by low to mid 30s
dew points. As this air mass moves over the existing snow, fog and
drizzle should be a good bet from this evening through the overnight
hours. Right now, it looks like winds should be strong enough to
keep things mainly drizzle vs. fog, though some reduced visibility
is certainly possible along the higher terrain of the Plateau.
Temperatures this evening should fall a couple of degrees, before
leveling off and then rising during the pre-dawn hours. While a few
spots across the eastern Ozarks may briefly dip below freezing
tonight, it appears that temperatures should rise above 32 before
precipitation begins. Thus, will not include mention of any
freezing drizzle at this time.
Drizzle should generally give way to scattered rain showers during
the day Tuesday, as temperatures warm into the low 50s ahead of an
approaching front. The trend over the last few days has been
slightly cooler with less available instability, with this morning`s
12Z guidance all but zeroing out CAPE. As such, will go ahead and
remove thunder mention from the forecast for Tuesday. While an
isolated rumble or two isn`t entirely out of the question, chances
just appear to be too low to justify mention.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 256 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015
The cold front should then sweep across the area from northwest to
southeast Tuesday during the late afternoon and evening hours, with
much colder air building in behind the front. Precipitation will
initially be shunted southeast with the front, but then should build
back to the north in a post-frontal fashion as very strong upper
level jet streak backbuilds from the Great Lakes into the Ozarks and
southern Plains. Combined with what should be several well
developed areas of low and mid level frontogenesis associated with
the front, this looks to be a good setup for deep tropospheric
ascent across the region, with the potential for several bands of
moderate to even heavy snow given the f-gen. Right now, the biggest
challenge remains pin-pointing where these bands setup; it does
appear that areas south of I-44 will be most favored for the higher
snow accumulations, with lesser amounts north. There will be a sharp
gradient to the northern edge of the snowfall, so locations along
the I-44 corridor, including Joplin, Springfield, and Rolla, should
be prepared for the possibility of significant changes to the
forecast based on just a 20-30 mile shift in the system.
Along with determining the areas of heaviest precipitation, two
other factors will likely have an impact on the snowfall forecast.
The first will be the possibility of mixed precipitation as the very
cold low level frontal air mass undercuts warmer temperatures aloft
Tuesday night and early Wednesday, resulting in a temporary warm
nose. This may be enough to result in a few hours of a mix of snow,
freezing rain, and sleet, before things change over entirely to
snow. The other issue will be the early March sun angle given what
will be mainly daytime accumulation on Wednesday. This will
probably cut down amounts compared to what would otherwise
accumulate if it were after dark.
So, with all that said, will be going with a broad 3-5" area of snow
south of I-44, with lesser 1-3" amounts along and north of the
Interstate. Given the expected banding, locally higher and lower
amounts are likely. Since confidence is pretty low that any
locations will reach the 6" mark, will hold off on a Winter Storm
Watch for now. Will highlight the expected winter event with a
Special Weather Statement.
After a cold night Wednesday night and a rather chilly day on
Thursday, guidance continues to suggest a somewhat significant
pattern change heading into the weekend and next week. The overall
CONUS pattern looks to translate east, meaning that the cold eastern
trough that has been affecting the region for the last month or two
will give way to a warmer and drier western US ridge. This should
allow temperatures to rise into the 50s by the beginning of next
week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A strong cold front will pass through
the region late in the taf period. Veering sfc s-sw sfc winds
ahead of the front will continue to transport low level moisture
n-ne into the region with lowering MVFR then IFR ceilings and some
ocnl light drizzle/light rain developing. We may see some modest
improvement in flight conditions during the day after 16z-18z, but
lowering ceilings are again expected behind the front after
04/00z.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...DSA

000
FXUS63 KSGF 030554
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1154 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 256 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015
A quiet weather day is underway across the region this Monday
afternoon, with temperatures rising into the mid to upper 30s under
mostly cloudy skies. Light southeasterly winds will become
southerly and increase through the evening and overnight hours
tonight, as high pressure pulls east and a surface low rapidly
deepens in the lee of the Rockies.
This southerly flow will begin to advect a (relatively) more mild
air mass into the region overnight, characterized by low to mid 30s
dew points. As this air mass moves over the existing snow, fog and
drizzle should be a good bet from this evening through the overnight
hours. Right now, it looks like winds should be strong enough to
keep things mainly drizzle vs. fog, though some reduced visibility
is certainly possible along the higher terrain of the Plateau.
Temperatures this evening should fall a couple of degrees, before
leveling off and then rising during the pre-dawn hours. While a few
spots across the eastern Ozarks may briefly dip below freezing
tonight, it appears that temperatures should rise above 32 before
precipitation begins. Thus, will not include mention of any
freezing drizzle at this time.
Drizzle should generally give way to scattered rain showers during
the day Tuesday, as temperatures warm into the low 50s ahead of an
approaching front. The trend over the last few days has been
slightly cooler with less available instability, with this morning`s
12Z guidance all but zeroing out CAPE. As such, will go ahead and
remove thunder mention from the forecast for Tuesday. While an
isolated rumble or two isn`t entirely out of the question, chances
just appear to be too low to justify mention.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 256 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015
The cold front should then sweep across the area from northwest to
southeast Tuesday during the late afternoon and evening hours, with
much colder air building in behind the front. Precipitation will
initially be shunted southeast with the front, but then should build
back to the north in a post-frontal fashion as very strong upper
level jet streak backbuilds from the Great Lakes into the Ozarks and
southern Plains. Combined with what should be several well
developed areas of low and mid level frontogenesis associated with
the front, this looks to be a good setup for deep tropospheric
ascent across the region, with the potential for several bands of
moderate to even heavy snow given the f-gen. Right now, the biggest
challenge remains pin-pointing where these bands setup; it does
appear that areas south of I-44 will be most favored for the higher
snow accumulations, with lesser amounts north. There will be a sharp
gradient to the northern edge of the snowfall, so locations along
the I-44 corridor, including Joplin, Springfield, and Rolla, should
be prepared for the possibility of significant changes to the
forecast based on just a 20-30 mile shift in the system.
Along with determining the areas of heaviest precipitation, two
other factors will likely have an impact on the snowfall forecast.
The first will be the possibility of mixed precipitation as the very
cold low level frontal air mass undercuts warmer temperatures aloft
Tuesday night and early Wednesday, resulting in a temporary warm
nose. This may be enough to result in a few hours of a mix of snow,
freezing rain, and sleet, before things change over entirely to
snow. The other issue will be the early March sun angle given what
will be mainly daytime accumulation on Wednesday. This will
probably cut down amounts compared to what would otherwise
accumulate if it were after dark.
So, with all that said, will be going with a broad 3-5" area of snow
south of I-44, with lesser 1-3" amounts along and north of the
Interstate. Given the expected banding, locally higher and lower
amounts are likely. Since confidence is pretty low that any
locations will reach the 6" mark, will hold off on a Winter Storm
Watch for now. Will highlight the expected winter event with a
Special Weather Statement.
After a cold night Wednesday night and a rather chilly day on
Thursday, guidance continues to suggest a somewhat significant
pattern change heading into the weekend and next week. The overall
CONUS pattern looks to translate east, meaning that the cold eastern
trough that has been affecting the region for the last month or two
will give way to a warmer and drier western US ridge. This should
allow temperatures to rise into the 50s by the beginning of next
week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A strong cold front will pass through
the region late in the taf period. Veering sfc s-sw sfc winds
ahead of the front will continue to transport low level moisture
n-ne into the region with lowering MVFR then IFR ceilings and some
ocnl light drizzle/light rain developing. We may see some modest
improvement in flight conditions during the day after 16z-18z, but
lowering ceilings are again expected behind the front after
04/00z.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...DSA

000
FXUS63 KSGF 022332
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
532 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 256 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015
A quiet weather day is underway across the region this Monday
afternoon, with temperatures rising into the mid to upper 30s under
mostly cloudy skies. Light southeasterly winds will become
southerly and increase through the evening and overnight hours
tonight, as high pressure pulls east and a surface low rapidly
deepens in the lee of the Rockies.
This southerly flow will begin to advect a (relatively) more mild
airmass into the region overnight, characterized by low to mid 30s
dewpoints. As this airmass moves over the existing snow, fog and
drizzle should be a good bet from this evening through the overnight
hours. Right now, it looks like winds should be strong enough to
keep things mainly drizzle vs. fog, though some reduced visibility
is certainly possible along the higher terrain of the Plateau.
Temperatures this evening should fall a couple of degrees, before
leveling off and then rising during the pre-dawn hours. While a few
spots across the eastern Ozarks may briefly dip below freezing
tonight, it appears that temperatures should rise above 32 before
precipitation begins. Thus, will not include mention of any
freezing drizzle at this time.
Drizzle should generally give way to scattered rain showers during
the day Tuesday, as temperatures warm into the low 50s ahead of an
approaching front. The trend over the last few days has been
slightly cooler with less available instability, with this morning`s
12Z guidance all but zeroing out CAPE. As such, will go ahead and
remove thunder mention from the forecast for Tuesday. While an
isolated rumble or two isn`t entirely out of the question, chances
just appear to be too low to justify mention.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 256 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015
The cold front should then sweep across the area from northwest to
southeast Tuesday during the late afternoon and evening hours, with
much colder air building in behind the front. Precipitation will
initially be shunted southeast with the front, but then should build
back to the north in a post-frontal fashion as very strong upper
level jet streak backbuilds from the Great Lakes into the Ozarks and
southern Plains. Combined with what should be several well
developed areas of low and mid level frontogenesis associated with
the front, this looks to be a good setup for deep tropospheric
ascent across the region, with the potential for several bands of
moderate to even heavy snow given the f-gen. Right now, the biggest
challenge remains pin-pointing where these bands setup; it does
appear that areas south of I-44 will be most favored for the higher
snow accumulations, with lesser amounts north. There will be a sharp
gradient to the northern edge of the snowfall, so locations along
the I-44 corridor, including Joplin, Springfield, and Rolla, should
be prepared for the possibility of significant changes to the
forecast based on just a 20-30 mile shift in the system.
Along with determining the areas of heaviest precipitation, two
other factors will likely have an impact on the snowfall forecast.
The first will be the possibility of mixed precipitation as the very
cold low level frontal airmass undercuts warmer temperatures aloft
Tuesday night and early Wednesday, resulting in a temporary warm
nose. This may be enough to result in a few hours of a mix of snow,
freezing rain, and sleet, before things change over entirely to
snow. The other issue will be the early March sun angle given what
will be mainly daytime accumulation on Wednesday. This will
probably cut down amounts compared to what would otherwise
accumulate if it were after dark.
So, with all that said, will be going with a broad 3-5" area of snow
south of I-44, with lesser 1-3" amounts along and north of the
Interstate. Given the expected banding, locally higher and lower
amounts are likely. Since confidence is pretty low that any
locations will reach the 6" mark, will hold off on a Winter Storm
Watch for now. Will highlight the expected winter event with a
Special Weather Statement.
After a cold night Wednesday night and a rather chilly day on
Thursday, guidance continues to suggest a somewhat significant
pattern change heading into the weekend and next week. The overall
CONUS pattern looks to translate east, meaning that the cold eastern
trough that has been affecting the region for the last month or two
will give way to a warmer and drier western US ridge. This should
allow temperatures to rise into the 50s by the beginning of next
week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 531 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015
MVFR ceilings will be on the downward trend after midnight as warm
advection increases resulting in a prolonged period of IFR
conditions from late tonight through much of Tuesday. Have
maintained drizzle tempo groups transitioning to light rain as
lift increases. Did not have the confidence to include it at this
point but there is a narrow window between 06-09z for some light
freezing precipitation as wet bulbing may bring temperatures below
freezing before warm advection sets in.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Runnels

000
FXUS63 KSGF 022057
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
257 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 256 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015
A quiet weather day is underway across the region this Monday
afternoon, with temperatures rising into the mid to upper 30s under
mostly cloudy skies. Light southeasterly winds will become
southerly and increase through the evening and overnight hours
tonight, as high pressure pulls east and a surface low rapidly
deepens in the lee of the Rockies.
This southerly flow will begin to advect a (relatively) more mild
airmass into the region overnight, characterized by low to mid 30s
dewpoints. As this airmass moves over the existing snow, fog and
drizzle should be a good bet from this evening through the overnight
hours. Right now, it looks like winds should be strong enough to
keep things mainly drizzle vs. fog, though some reduced visibility
is certainly possible along the higher terrain of the Plateau.
Temperatures this evening should fall a couple of degrees, before
leveling off and then rising during the pre-dawn hours. While a few
spots across the eastern Ozarks may briefly dip below freezing
tonight, it appears that temperatures should rise above 32 before
precipitation begins. Thus, will not include mention of any
freezing drizzle at this time.
Drizzle should generally give way to scattered rain showers during
the day Tuesday, as temperatures warm into the low 50s ahead of an
approaching front. The trend over the last few days has been
slightly cooler with less available instability, with this morning`s
12Z guidance all but zeroing out CAPE. As such, will go ahead and
remove thunder mention from the forecast for Tuesday. While an
isolated rumble or two isn`t entirely out of the question, chances
just appear to be too low to justify mention.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 256 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015
The cold front should then sweep across the area from northwest to
southeast Tuesday during the late afternoon and evening hours, with
much colder air building in behind the front. Precipitation will
initially be shunted southeast with the front, but then should build
back to the north in a post-frontal fashion as very strong upper
level jet streak backbuilds from the Great Lakes into the Ozarks and
southern Plains. Combined with what should be several well
developed areas of low and mid level frontogenesis associated with
the front, this looks to be a good setup for deep tropospheric
ascent across the region, with the potential for several bands of
moderate to even heavy snow given the f-gen. Right now, the biggest
challenge remains pin-pointing where these bands setup; it does
appear that areas south of I-44 will be most favored for the higher
snow accumulations, with lesser amounts north. There will be a sharp
gradient to the northern edge of the snowfall, so locations along
the I-44 corridor, including Joplin, Springfield, and Rolla, should
be prepared for the possibility of significant changes to the
forecast based on just a 20-30 mile shift in the system.
Along with determining the areas of heaviest precipitation, two
other factors will likely have an impact on the snowfall forecast.
The first will be the possibility of mixed precipitation as the very
cold low level frontal airmass undercuts warmer temperatures aloft
Tuesday night and early Wednesday, resulting in a temporary warm
nose. This may be enough to result in a few hours of a mix of snow,
freezing rain, and sleet, before things change over entirely to
snow. The other issue will be the early March sun angle given what
will be mainly daytime accumulation on Wednesday. This will
probably cut down amounts compared to what would otherwise
accumulate if it were after dark.
So, with all that said, will be going with a broad 3-5" area of snow
south of I-44, with lesser 1-3" amounts along and north of the
Interstate. Given the expected banding, locally higher and lower
amounts are likely. Since confidence is pretty low that any
locations will reach the 6" mark, will hold off on a Winter Storm
Watch for now. Will highlight the expected winter event with a
Special Weather Statement.
After a cold night Wednesday night and a rather chilly day on
Thursday, guidance continues to suggest a somewhat significant
pattern change heading into the weekend and next week. The overall
CONUS pattern looks to translate east, meaning that the cold eastern
trough that has been affecting the region for the last month or two
will give way to a warmer and drier western US ridge. This should
allow temperatures to rise into the 50s by the beginning of next
week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015
We will continue the trend for lowering ceilings and visibilities
during the overnight and morning hours as moisture increases ahead
of several upper level disturbances embedded within southwest flow
aloft. Will delay the onset of precipitation by four to six hours
based on current conditions and model guidance trends. However,
with temperatures above freezing over snowpack across the area,
especially at SGF, have trended visibilities below current
guidance.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Terry

000
FXUS63 KSGF 022057
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
257 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 256 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015
A quiet weather day is underway across the region this Monday
afternoon, with temperatures rising into the mid to upper 30s under
mostly cloudy skies. Light southeasterly winds will become
southerly and increase through the evening and overnight hours
tonight, as high pressure pulls east and a surface low rapidly
deepens in the lee of the Rockies.
This southerly flow will begin to advect a (relatively) more mild
airmass into the region overnight, characterized by low to mid 30s
dewpoints. As this airmass moves over the existing snow, fog and
drizzle should be a good bet from this evening through the overnight
hours. Right now, it looks like winds should be strong enough to
keep things mainly drizzle vs. fog, though some reduced visibility
is certainly possible along the higher terrain of the Plateau.
Temperatures this evening should fall a couple of degrees, before
leveling off and then rising during the pre-dawn hours. While a few
spots across the eastern Ozarks may briefly dip below freezing
tonight, it appears that temperatures should rise above 32 before
precipitation begins. Thus, will not include mention of any
freezing drizzle at this time.
Drizzle should generally give way to scattered rain showers during
the day Tuesday, as temperatures warm into the low 50s ahead of an
approaching front. The trend over the last few days has been
slightly cooler with less available instability, with this morning`s
12Z guidance all but zeroing out CAPE. As such, will go ahead and
remove thunder mention from the forecast for Tuesday. While an
isolated rumble or two isn`t entirely out of the question, chances
just appear to be too low to justify mention.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 256 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015
The cold front should then sweep across the area from northwest to
southeast Tuesday during the late afternoon and evening hours, with
much colder air building in behind the front. Precipitation will
initially be shunted southeast with the front, but then should build
back to the north in a post-frontal fashion as very strong upper
level jet streak backbuilds from the Great Lakes into the Ozarks and
southern Plains. Combined with what should be several well
developed areas of low and mid level frontogenesis associated with
the front, this looks to be a good setup for deep tropospheric
ascent across the region, with the potential for several bands of
moderate to even heavy snow given the f-gen. Right now, the biggest
challenge remains pin-pointing where these bands setup; it does
appear that areas south of I-44 will be most favored for the higher
snow accumulations, with lesser amounts north. There will be a sharp
gradient to the northern edge of the snowfall, so locations along
the I-44 corridor, including Joplin, Springfield, and Rolla, should
be prepared for the possibility of significant changes to the
forecast based on just a 20-30 mile shift in the system.
Along with determining the areas of heaviest precipitation, two
other factors will likely have an impact on the snowfall forecast.
The first will be the possibility of mixed precipitation as the very
cold low level frontal airmass undercuts warmer temperatures aloft
Tuesday night and early Wednesday, resulting in a temporary warm
nose. This may be enough to result in a few hours of a mix of snow,
freezing rain, and sleet, before things change over entirely to
snow. The other issue will be the early March sun angle given what
will be mainly daytime accumulation on Wednesday. This will
probably cut down amounts compared to what would otherwise
accumulate if it were after dark.
So, with all that said, will be going with a broad 3-5" area of snow
south of I-44, with lesser 1-3" amounts along and north of the
Interstate. Given the expected banding, locally higher and lower
amounts are likely. Since confidence is pretty low that any
locations will reach the 6" mark, will hold off on a Winter Storm
Watch for now. Will highlight the expected winter event with a
Special Weather Statement.
After a cold night Wednesday night and a rather chilly day on
Thursday, guidance continues to suggest a somewhat significant
pattern change heading into the weekend and next week. The overall
CONUS pattern looks to translate east, meaning that the cold eastern
trough that has been affecting the region for the last month or two
will give way to a warmer and drier western US ridge. This should
allow temperatures to rise into the 50s by the beginning of next
week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015
We will continue the trend for lowering ceilings and visibilities
during the overnight and morning hours as moisture increases ahead
of several upper level disturbances embedded within southwest flow
aloft. Will delay the onset of precipitation by four to six hours
based on current conditions and model guidance trends. However,
with temperatures above freezing over snowpack across the area,
especially at SGF, have trended visibilities below current
guidance.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Terry

000
FXUS63 KSGF 022057
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
257 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 256 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015
A quiet weather day is underway across the region this Monday
afternoon, with temperatures rising into the mid to upper 30s under
mostly cloudy skies. Light southeasterly winds will become
southerly and increase through the evening and overnight hours
tonight, as high pressure pulls east and a surface low rapidly
deepens in the lee of the Rockies.
This southerly flow will begin to advect a (relatively) more mild
airmass into the region overnight, characterized by low to mid 30s
dewpoints. As this airmass moves over the existing snow, fog and
drizzle should be a good bet from this evening through the overnight
hours. Right now, it looks like winds should be strong enough to
keep things mainly drizzle vs. fog, though some reduced visibility
is certainly possible along the higher terrain of the Plateau.
Temperatures this evening should fall a couple of degrees, before
leveling off and then rising during the pre-dawn hours. While a few
spots across the eastern Ozarks may briefly dip below freezing
tonight, it appears that temperatures should rise above 32 before
precipitation begins. Thus, will not include mention of any
freezing drizzle at this time.
Drizzle should generally give way to scattered rain showers during
the day Tuesday, as temperatures warm into the low 50s ahead of an
approaching front. The trend over the last few days has been
slightly cooler with less available instability, with this morning`s
12Z guidance all but zeroing out CAPE. As such, will go ahead and
remove thunder mention from the forecast for Tuesday. While an
isolated rumble or two isn`t entirely out of the question, chances
just appear to be too low to justify mention.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 256 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015
The cold front should then sweep across the area from northwest to
southeast Tuesday during the late afternoon and evening hours, with
much colder air building in behind the front. Precipitation will
initially be shunted southeast with the front, but then should build
back to the north in a post-frontal fashion as very strong upper
level jet streak backbuilds from the Great Lakes into the Ozarks and
southern Plains. Combined with what should be several well
developed areas of low and mid level frontogenesis associated with
the front, this looks to be a good setup for deep tropospheric
ascent across the region, with the potential for several bands of
moderate to even heavy snow given the f-gen. Right now, the biggest
challenge remains pin-pointing where these bands setup; it does
appear that areas south of I-44 will be most favored for the higher
snow accumulations, with lesser amounts north. There will be a sharp
gradient to the northern edge of the snowfall, so locations along
the I-44 corridor, including Joplin, Springfield, and Rolla, should
be prepared for the possibility of significant changes to the
forecast based on just a 20-30 mile shift in the system.
Along with determining the areas of heaviest precipitation, two
other factors will likely have an impact on the snowfall forecast.
The first will be the possibility of mixed precipitation as the very
cold low level frontal airmass undercuts warmer temperatures aloft
Tuesday night and early Wednesday, resulting in a temporary warm
nose. This may be enough to result in a few hours of a mix of snow,
freezing rain, and sleet, before things change over entirely to
snow. The other issue will be the early March sun angle given what
will be mainly daytime accumulation on Wednesday. This will
probably cut down amounts compared to what would otherwise
accumulate if it were after dark.
So, with all that said, will be going with a broad 3-5" area of snow
south of I-44, with lesser 1-3" amounts along and north of the
Interstate. Given the expected banding, locally higher and lower
amounts are likely. Since confidence is pretty low that any
locations will reach the 6" mark, will hold off on a Winter Storm
Watch for now. Will highlight the expected winter event with a
Special Weather Statement.
After a cold night Wednesday night and a rather chilly day on
Thursday, guidance continues to suggest a somewhat significant
pattern change heading into the weekend and next week. The overall
CONUS pattern looks to translate east, meaning that the cold eastern
trough that has been affecting the region for the last month or two
will give way to a warmer and drier western US ridge. This should
allow temperatures to rise into the 50s by the beginning of next
week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015
We will continue the trend for lowering ceilings and visibilities
during the overnight and morning hours as moisture increases ahead
of several upper level disturbances embedded within southwest flow
aloft. Will delay the onset of precipitation by four to six hours
based on current conditions and model guidance trends. However,
with temperatures above freezing over snowpack across the area,
especially at SGF, have trended visibilities below current
guidance.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Terry

000
FXUS63 KSGF 021743
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1143 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 347 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015
Surface high pressure is currently over the region early this
morning and will slide off to the east today. The low level cloud
deck that was over the region yesterday has cleared most of the
region early this morning. High level clouds have on the other
hand are increasing from the southwest to northeast early this
morning. Portions of central Missouri that have been clear of both
the low and high level clouds have had temperatures drop well
into the teens early this morning, and some patchy ground fog was
able to develop. With the high level clouds now starting to spread
into central Missouri do not expect widespread fog this morning, but some
patchy light ground fog will still occur in spots this morning. With
temperatures well in the 20s and teens there could be some black
ice where ground fog does develop this morning.
High level clouds will remain over the area today and the low
level cloud deck that shifted south into Arkansas overnight will
spread back to the north and over the area this afternoon. With
the clouds expected today highs will be in in the middle 30s
across central Missouri to the lower 40s across extreme
southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri.
Isentropic lift will spread north across the area late this
afternoon into tonight ahead of an upper level trough that will be
pushing east into the Plains. Low level moisture will be in place
but mid level moisture may still be on the dry side into tonight..
This will lead to more drizzle occurring in the lift from late
this afternoon into tonight. This isentropic lift will occur in
an area of strong warm air advection and lows tonight will be in
the middle 30s across much of the area. Portions of the eastern
Ozarks may drop to around the freezing mark tonight but this would
only be briefly, so no freezing precipitation is expected tonight
into Tuesday morning.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 347 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015
The upper level trough and surface low will lift northeast into
Iowa on Tuesday. Cloudy conditions will persist but with the warm
air mass spreading north highs will still be able to top out in
the 50s on Tuesday. Gusty southwesterly winds will develop across
the region on Tuesday as the pressure gradient increases ahead of
the approaching low pressure system. As the upper level trough and
surface low pushes east a cold front will sweep from northwest to
southeast across the area late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
evening. Isolated scattered showers will be possible ahead and
along the front Tuesday afternoon and evening. The best coverage
of showers will be across southern central Missouri where better
moisture will be. Some weak instability will also spread north
into southern Missouri and a thunderstorms or two will be
possible, but instability will be on the weak side so no severe
weather is expected.
A much colder and drier air mass will spread in the area behind
the front and will end precipitation fairly quickly behind the
front Tuesday evening. Another upper level trough will spread
southeast into and across the northern Plains Tuesday night into
Wednesday into the region, then will spread off to the east
Wednesday night. Moisture will quickly spread north back into the
region Tuesday night into Wednesday ahead of this system. A strong
upper level jet streak will develop with this system and create
strong lift over the region. As the upper level wave pushes
towards the region an area of precipitation will develop early
Wednesday morning and continue into the day. As the system slides
southeast the precipitation will too, however when the trough
pivots to the east the band will also shift more to the east and
may stall briefly on an area, though exactly where this will occur
is still in question.
Strong cold air convection will occur with this system and with
height falls from the approach trough all snow is expected this
far north. With the lift in place there could be some moderate to
even heavy snow that develop. Confidence is increasing that
accumulating snow will occur over the region, however, there are
still questions on how far north it develops and exactly where and
when the pivot occurs. There will likely be a tight gradient in
snowfall amounts from northwest to southeast across the area due
to this, and at this time have the lightest snow amounts across
southeastern Kansas and heaviest across south central Missouri. It
is still too early to pin point the exact track of this system and where
exactly where the area or more light large band of snow will
develop. Therefore, amounts may have to be shifted slight north
or south when the track becomes more clear. The snow will push out
of the area Wednesday evening.
A much colder air mass will spread over the area Wednesday into
Thursday as highs in the 20s occur Wednesday and upper 20s to
lower 30s on Thursday with lows in the teens to single digits
expected Thursday morning. Wind chill values in the 5 below to 5
above range are expected Thursday morning.
After the cold conditions mid week and warming trend will occur
Friday into the weekend as highs in the 50s return this weekend
with dry weather expected.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015
We will continue the trend for lowering ceilings and visibilities
during the overnight and morning hours as moisture increases ahead
of several upper level disturbances embedded within southwest flow
aloft. Will delay the onset of precipitation by four to six hours
based on current conditions and model guidance trends. However,
with temperatures above freezing over snowpack across the area,
especially at SGF, have trended visibilities below current
guidance.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Terry

000
FXUS63 KSGF 021743
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1143 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 347 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015
Surface high pressure is currently over the region early this
morning and will slide off to the east today. The low level cloud
deck that was over the region yesterday has cleared most of the
region early this morning. High level clouds have on the other
hand are increasing from the southwest to northeast early this
morning. Portions of central Missouri that have been clear of both
the low and high level clouds have had temperatures drop well
into the teens early this morning, and some patchy ground fog was
able to develop. With the high level clouds now starting to spread
into central Missouri do not expect widespread fog this morning, but some
patchy light ground fog will still occur in spots this morning. With
temperatures well in the 20s and teens there could be some black
ice where ground fog does develop this morning.
High level clouds will remain over the area today and the low
level cloud deck that shifted south into Arkansas overnight will
spread back to the north and over the area this afternoon. With
the clouds expected today highs will be in in the middle 30s
across central Missouri to the lower 40s across extreme
southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri.
Isentropic lift will spread north across the area late this
afternoon into tonight ahead of an upper level trough that will be
pushing east into the Plains. Low level moisture will be in place
but mid level moisture may still be on the dry side into tonight..
This will lead to more drizzle occurring in the lift from late
this afternoon into tonight. This isentropic lift will occur in
an area of strong warm air advection and lows tonight will be in
the middle 30s across much of the area. Portions of the eastern
Ozarks may drop to around the freezing mark tonight but this would
only be briefly, so no freezing precipitation is expected tonight
into Tuesday morning.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 347 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015
The upper level trough and surface low will lift northeast into
Iowa on Tuesday. Cloudy conditions will persist but with the warm
air mass spreading north highs will still be able to top out in
the 50s on Tuesday. Gusty southwesterly winds will develop across
the region on Tuesday as the pressure gradient increases ahead of
the approaching low pressure system. As the upper level trough and
surface low pushes east a cold front will sweep from northwest to
southeast across the area late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
evening. Isolated scattered showers will be possible ahead and
along the front Tuesday afternoon and evening. The best coverage
of showers will be across southern central Missouri where better
moisture will be. Some weak instability will also spread north
into southern Missouri and a thunderstorms or two will be
possible, but instability will be on the weak side so no severe
weather is expected.
A much colder and drier air mass will spread in the area behind
the front and will end precipitation fairly quickly behind the
front Tuesday evening. Another upper level trough will spread
southeast into and across the northern Plains Tuesday night into
Wednesday into the region, then will spread off to the east
Wednesday night. Moisture will quickly spread north back into the
region Tuesday night into Wednesday ahead of this system. A strong
upper level jet streak will develop with this system and create
strong lift over the region. As the upper level wave pushes
towards the region an area of precipitation will develop early
Wednesday morning and continue into the day. As the system slides
southeast the precipitation will too, however when the trough
pivots to the east the band will also shift more to the east and
may stall briefly on an area, though exactly where this will occur
is still in question.
Strong cold air convection will occur with this system and with
height falls from the approach trough all snow is expected this
far north. With the lift in place there could be some moderate to
even heavy snow that develop. Confidence is increasing that
accumulating snow will occur over the region, however, there are
still questions on how far north it develops and exactly where and
when the pivot occurs. There will likely be a tight gradient in
snowfall amounts from northwest to southeast across the area due
to this, and at this time have the lightest snow amounts across
southeastern Kansas and heaviest across south central Missouri. It
is still too early to pin point the exact track of this system and where
exactly where the area or more light large band of snow will
develop. Therefore, amounts may have to be shifted slight north
or south when the track becomes more clear. The snow will push out
of the area Wednesday evening.
A much colder air mass will spread over the area Wednesday into
Thursday as highs in the 20s occur Wednesday and upper 20s to
lower 30s on Thursday with lows in the teens to single digits
expected Thursday morning. Wind chill values in the 5 below to 5
above range are expected Thursday morning.
After the cold conditions mid week and warming trend will occur
Friday into the weekend as highs in the 50s return this weekend
with dry weather expected.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015
We will continue the trend for lowering ceilings and visibilities
during the overnight and morning hours as moisture increases ahead
of several upper level disturbances embedded within southwest flow
aloft. Will delay the onset of precipitation by four to six hours
based on current conditions and model guidance trends. However,
with temperatures above freezing over snowpack across the area,
especially at SGF, have trended visibilities below current
guidance.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Terry

000
FXUS63 KSGF 021743
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1143 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 347 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015
Surface high pressure is currently over the region early this
morning and will slide off to the east today. The low level cloud
deck that was over the region yesterday has cleared most of the
region early this morning. High level clouds have on the other
hand are increasing from the southwest to northeast early this
morning. Portions of central Missouri that have been clear of both
the low and high level clouds have had temperatures drop well
into the teens early this morning, and some patchy ground fog was
able to develop. With the high level clouds now starting to spread
into central Missouri do not expect widespread fog this morning, but some
patchy light ground fog will still occur in spots this morning. With
temperatures well in the 20s and teens there could be some black
ice where ground fog does develop this morning.
High level clouds will remain over the area today and the low
level cloud deck that shifted south into Arkansas overnight will
spread back to the north and over the area this afternoon. With
the clouds expected today highs will be in in the middle 30s
across central Missouri to the lower 40s across extreme
southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri.
Isentropic lift will spread north across the area late this
afternoon into tonight ahead of an upper level trough that will be
pushing east into the Plains. Low level moisture will be in place
but mid level moisture may still be on the dry side into tonight..
This will lead to more drizzle occurring in the lift from late
this afternoon into tonight. This isentropic lift will occur in
an area of strong warm air advection and lows tonight will be in
the middle 30s across much of the area. Portions of the eastern
Ozarks may drop to around the freezing mark tonight but this would
only be briefly, so no freezing precipitation is expected tonight
into Tuesday morning.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 347 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015
The upper level trough and surface low will lift northeast into
Iowa on Tuesday. Cloudy conditions will persist but with the warm
air mass spreading north highs will still be able to top out in
the 50s on Tuesday. Gusty southwesterly winds will develop across
the region on Tuesday as the pressure gradient increases ahead of
the approaching low pressure system. As the upper level trough and
surface low pushes east a cold front will sweep from northwest to
southeast across the area late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
evening. Isolated scattered showers will be possible ahead and
along the front Tuesday afternoon and evening. The best coverage
of showers will be across southern central Missouri where better
moisture will be. Some weak instability will also spread north
into southern Missouri and a thunderstorms or two will be
possible, but instability will be on the weak side so no severe
weather is expected.
A much colder and drier air mass will spread in the area behind
the front and will end precipitation fairly quickly behind the
front Tuesday evening. Another upper level trough will spread
southeast into and across the northern Plains Tuesday night into
Wednesday into the region, then will spread off to the east
Wednesday night. Moisture will quickly spread north back into the
region Tuesday night into Wednesday ahead of this system. A strong
upper level jet streak will develop with this system and create
strong lift over the region. As the upper level wave pushes
towards the region an area of precipitation will develop early
Wednesday morning and continue into the day. As the system slides
southeast the precipitation will too, however when the trough
pivots to the east the band will also shift more to the east and
may stall briefly on an area, though exactly where this will occur
is still in question.
Strong cold air convection will occur with this system and with
height falls from the approach trough all snow is expected this
far north. With the lift in place there could be some moderate to
even heavy snow that develop. Confidence is increasing that
accumulating snow will occur over the region, however, there are
still questions on how far north it develops and exactly where and
when the pivot occurs. There will likely be a tight gradient in
snowfall amounts from northwest to southeast across the area due
to this, and at this time have the lightest snow amounts across
southeastern Kansas and heaviest across south central Missouri. It
is still too early to pin point the exact track of this system and where
exactly where the area or more light large band of snow will
develop. Therefore, amounts may have to be shifted slight north
or south when the track becomes more clear. The snow will push out
of the area Wednesday evening.
A much colder air mass will spread over the area Wednesday into
Thursday as highs in the 20s occur Wednesday and upper 20s to
lower 30s on Thursday with lows in the teens to single digits
expected Thursday morning. Wind chill values in the 5 below to 5
above range are expected Thursday morning.
After the cold conditions mid week and warming trend will occur
Friday into the weekend as highs in the 50s return this weekend
with dry weather expected.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015
We will continue the trend for lowering ceilings and visibilities
during the overnight and morning hours as moisture increases ahead
of several upper level disturbances embedded within southwest flow
aloft. Will delay the onset of precipitation by four to six hours
based on current conditions and model guidance trends. However,
with temperatures above freezing over snowpack across the area,
especially at SGF, have trended visibilities below current
guidance.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Terry

000
FXUS63 KSGF 021123
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
523 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 347 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015
Surface high pressure is currently over the region early this
morning and will slide off to the east today. The low level cloud
deck that was over the region yesterday has cleared most of the
region early this morning. High level clouds have on the other
hand are increasing from the southwest to northeast early this
morning. Portions of central Missouri that have been clear of both
the low and high level clouds have had temperatures drop well
into the teens early this morning, and some patchy ground fog was
able to develop. With the high level clouds now starting to spread
into central Missouri do not expect widespread fog this morning, but some
patchy light ground fog will still occur in spots this morning. With
temperatures well in the 20s and teens there could be some black
ice where ground fog does develop this morning.
High level clouds will remain over the area today and the low
level cloud deck that shifted south into Arkansas overnight will
spread back to the north and over the area this afternoon. With
the clouds expected today highs will be in in the middle 30s
across central Missouri to the lower 40s across extreme
southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri.
Isentoripic lift will spread north across the area late this
afternoon into tonight ahead of an upper level trough that will be
pushing east into the Plains. Low level moisture will be in place
but mid level moisture may still be on the dry side into tonight..
This will lead to more drizzle occurring in the lift from late
this afternoon into tonight. This isentorpic lift will occur in
an area of strong warm air advection and lows tonight will be in
the middle 30s across much of the area. Portions of the eastern
Ozarks may drop to around the freezing mark tonight but this would
only be briefly, so no freezing precipitation is expected tonight
into Tuesday morning.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 347 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015
The upper level trough and surface low will lift northeast into
Iowa on Tuesday. Cloudy conditions will persist but with the warm
air mass spreading north highs will still be able to top out in
the 50s on Tuesday. Gusty southwesterly winds will develop across
the region on Tuesday as the pressure gradient increases ahead of
the approaching low pressure system. As the upper level trough and
surface low pushes east a cold front will sweep from northwest to
southeast across the area late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
evening. Isolated scattered showers will be possible ahead and
along the front Tuesday afternoon and evening. The best coverage
of showers will be across southern central Missouri where better
moisture will be. Some weak instability will also spread north
into southern Missouri and a thunderstorms or two will be
possible, but instability will be on the weak side so no severe
weather is expected.
A much colder and drier air mass will spread in the area behind
the front and will end precipitation fairly quickly behind the
front Tuesday evening. Another upper level trough will spread
southeast into and across the northern Plains Tuesday night into
Wednesday into the region, then will spread off to the east
Wednesday night. Moisture will quickly spread north back into the
region Tuesday night into Wednesday ahead of this system. A strong
upper level jet streak will develop with this system and create
strong lift over the region. As the upper level wave pushes
towards the region an area of precipitation will develop early
Wednesday morning and continue into the day. As the system slides
southeast the precipitation will too, however when the trough
pivots to the east the band will also shift more to the east and
may stall briefly on an area, though exactly where this will occur
is still in question.
Strong cold air convection will occur with this system and with
height falls from the approach trough all snow is expected this
far north. With the lift in place there could be some moderate to
even heavy snow that develop. Confidence is increasing that
accumulating snow will occur over the region, however, there are
still questions on how far north it develops and exactly where and
when the pivot occurs. There will likely be a tight gradient in
snowfall amounts from northwest to southeast across the area due
to this, and at this time have the lightest snow amounts across
southeastern Kansas and heaviest across south central Missouri. It
is still too early to pin point the exact track of this system and where
exactly where the area or more light large band of snow will
develop. Therefore, amounts may have to be shifted slight north
or south when the track becomes more clear. The snow will push out
of the area Wednesday evening.
A much colder air mass will spread over the area Wednesday into
Thursday as highs in the 20s occur Wednesday and upper 20s to
lower 30s on Thursday with lows in the teens to single digits
expected Thursday morning. Wind chill values in the 5 below to 5
above range are expected Thursday morning.
After the cold conditions mid week and warming trend will occur
Friday into the weekend as highs in the 50s return this weekend
with dry weather expected.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 517 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015
High pressure was centered to the northeast of the terminals early
this morning with a steady northeast wind. This and some mid level
cloud cover was keeping the visibilities from lowering into the
IFR category at the terminals. Will start to see a big low level
moisture push by the afternoon and will see ceilings drop into
MVFR category later in the afternoon and continue through the
nighttime hours. Could see some rain develop late tonight and have
put in a prob 30 group at the 3 sites to cover this. Temperatures
should remain above freezing tonight with a strong warm air
advection pattern setting up. Could see some IFR conditions
develop overnight as ceilings dip below 1000 feet.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Lindenberg

000
FXUS63 KSGF 021123
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
523 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 347 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015
Surface high pressure is currently over the region early this
morning and will slide off to the east today. The low level cloud
deck that was over the region yesterday has cleared most of the
region early this morning. High level clouds have on the other
hand are increasing from the southwest to northeast early this
morning. Portions of central Missouri that have been clear of both
the low and high level clouds have had temperatures drop well
into the teens early this morning, and some patchy ground fog was
able to develop. With the high level clouds now starting to spread
into central Missouri do not expect widespread fog this morning, but some
patchy light ground fog will still occur in spots this morning. With
temperatures well in the 20s and teens there could be some black
ice where ground fog does develop this morning.
High level clouds will remain over the area today and the low
level cloud deck that shifted south into Arkansas overnight will
spread back to the north and over the area this afternoon. With
the clouds expected today highs will be in in the middle 30s
across central Missouri to the lower 40s across extreme
southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri.
Isentoripic lift will spread north across the area late this
afternoon into tonight ahead of an upper level trough that will be
pushing east into the Plains. Low level moisture will be in place
but mid level moisture may still be on the dry side into tonight..
This will lead to more drizzle occurring in the lift from late
this afternoon into tonight. This isentorpic lift will occur in
an area of strong warm air advection and lows tonight will be in
the middle 30s across much of the area. Portions of the eastern
Ozarks may drop to around the freezing mark tonight but this would
only be briefly, so no freezing precipitation is expected tonight
into Tuesday morning.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 347 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015
The upper level trough and surface low will lift northeast into
Iowa on Tuesday. Cloudy conditions will persist but with the warm
air mass spreading north highs will still be able to top out in
the 50s on Tuesday. Gusty southwesterly winds will develop across
the region on Tuesday as the pressure gradient increases ahead of
the approaching low pressure system. As the upper level trough and
surface low pushes east a cold front will sweep from northwest to
southeast across the area late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
evening. Isolated scattered showers will be possible ahead and
along the front Tuesday afternoon and evening. The best coverage
of showers will be across southern central Missouri where better
moisture will be. Some weak instability will also spread north
into southern Missouri and a thunderstorms or two will be
possible, but instability will be on the weak side so no severe
weather is expected.
A much colder and drier air mass will spread in the area behind
the front and will end precipitation fairly quickly behind the
front Tuesday evening. Another upper level trough will spread
southeast into and across the northern Plains Tuesday night into
Wednesday into the region, then will spread off to the east
Wednesday night. Moisture will quickly spread north back into the
region Tuesday night into Wednesday ahead of this system. A strong
upper level jet streak will develop with this system and create
strong lift over the region. As the upper level wave pushes
towards the region an area of precipitation will develop early
Wednesday morning and continue into the day. As the system slides
southeast the precipitation will too, however when the trough
pivots to the east the band will also shift more to the east and
may stall briefly on an area, though exactly where this will occur
is still in question.
Strong cold air convection will occur with this system and with
height falls from the approach trough all snow is expected this
far north. With the lift in place there could be some moderate to
even heavy snow that develop. Confidence is increasing that
accumulating snow will occur over the region, however, there are
still questions on how far north it develops and exactly where and
when the pivot occurs. There will likely be a tight gradient in
snowfall amounts from northwest to southeast across the area due
to this, and at this time have the lightest snow amounts across
southeastern Kansas and heaviest across south central Missouri. It
is still too early to pin point the exact track of this system and where
exactly where the area or more light large band of snow will
develop. Therefore, amounts may have to be shifted slight north
or south when the track becomes more clear. The snow will push out
of the area Wednesday evening.
A much colder air mass will spread over the area Wednesday into
Thursday as highs in the 20s occur Wednesday and upper 20s to
lower 30s on Thursday with lows in the teens to single digits
expected Thursday morning. Wind chill values in the 5 below to 5
above range are expected Thursday morning.
After the cold conditions mid week and warming trend will occur
Friday into the weekend as highs in the 50s return this weekend
with dry weather expected.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 517 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015
High pressure was centered to the northeast of the terminals early
this morning with a steady northeast wind. This and some mid level
cloud cover was keeping the visibilities from lowering into the
IFR category at the terminals. Will start to see a big low level
moisture push by the afternoon and will see ceilings drop into
MVFR category later in the afternoon and continue through the
nighttime hours. Could see some rain develop late tonight and have
put in a prob 30 group at the 3 sites to cover this. Temperatures
should remain above freezing tonight with a strong warm air
advection pattern setting up. Could see some IFR conditions
develop overnight as ceilings dip below 1000 feet.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Lindenberg

000
FXUS63 KSGF 021123
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
523 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 347 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015
Surface high pressure is currently over the region early this
morning and will slide off to the east today. The low level cloud
deck that was over the region yesterday has cleared most of the
region early this morning. High level clouds have on the other
hand are increasing from the southwest to northeast early this
morning. Portions of central Missouri that have been clear of both
the low and high level clouds have had temperatures drop well
into the teens early this morning, and some patchy ground fog was
able to develop. With the high level clouds now starting to spread
into central Missouri do not expect widespread fog this morning, but some
patchy light ground fog will still occur in spots this morning. With
temperatures well in the 20s and teens there could be some black
ice where ground fog does develop this morning.
High level clouds will remain over the area today and the low
level cloud deck that shifted south into Arkansas overnight will
spread back to the north and over the area this afternoon. With
the clouds expected today highs will be in in the middle 30s
across central Missouri to the lower 40s across extreme
southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri.
Isentoripic lift will spread north across the area late this
afternoon into tonight ahead of an upper level trough that will be
pushing east into the Plains. Low level moisture will be in place
but mid level moisture may still be on the dry side into tonight..
This will lead to more drizzle occurring in the lift from late
this afternoon into tonight. This isentorpic lift will occur in
an area of strong warm air advection and lows tonight will be in
the middle 30s across much of the area. Portions of the eastern
Ozarks may drop to around the freezing mark tonight but this would
only be briefly, so no freezing precipitation is expected tonight
into Tuesday morning.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 347 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015
The upper level trough and surface low will lift northeast into
Iowa on Tuesday. Cloudy conditions will persist but with the warm
air mass spreading north highs will still be able to top out in
the 50s on Tuesday. Gusty southwesterly winds will develop across
the region on Tuesday as the pressure gradient increases ahead of
the approaching low pressure system. As the upper level trough and
surface low pushes east a cold front will sweep from northwest to
southeast across the area late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
evening. Isolated scattered showers will be possible ahead and
along the front Tuesday afternoon and evening. The best coverage
of showers will be across southern central Missouri where better
moisture will be. Some weak instability will also spread north
into southern Missouri and a thunderstorms or two will be
possible, but instability will be on the weak side so no severe
weather is expected.
A much colder and drier air mass will spread in the area behind
the front and will end precipitation fairly quickly behind the
front Tuesday evening. Another upper level trough will spread
southeast into and across the northern Plains Tuesday night into
Wednesday into the region, then will spread off to the east
Wednesday night. Moisture will quickly spread north back into the
region Tuesday night into Wednesday ahead of this system. A strong
upper level jet streak will develop with this system and create
strong lift over the region. As the upper level wave pushes
towards the region an area of precipitation will develop early
Wednesday morning and continue into the day. As the system slides
southeast the precipitation will too, however when the trough
pivots to the east the band will also shift more to the east and
may stall briefly on an area, though exactly where this will occur
is still in question.
Strong cold air convection will occur with this system and with
height falls from the approach trough all snow is expected this
far north. With the lift in place there could be some moderate to
even heavy snow that develop. Confidence is increasing that
accumulating snow will occur over the region, however, there are
still questions on how far north it develops and exactly where and
when the pivot occurs. There will likely be a tight gradient in
snowfall amounts from northwest to southeast across the area due
to this, and at this time have the lightest snow amounts across
southeastern Kansas and heaviest across south central Missouri. It
is still too early to pin point the exact track of this system and where
exactly where the area or more light large band of snow will
develop. Therefore, amounts may have to be shifted slight north
or south when the track becomes more clear. The snow will push out
of the area Wednesday evening.
A much colder air mass will spread over the area Wednesday into
Thursday as highs in the 20s occur Wednesday and upper 20s to
lower 30s on Thursday with lows in the teens to single digits
expected Thursday morning. Wind chill values in the 5 below to 5
above range are expected Thursday morning.
After the cold conditions mid week and warming trend will occur
Friday into the weekend as highs in the 50s return this weekend
with dry weather expected.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 517 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015
High pressure was centered to the northeast of the terminals early
this morning with a steady northeast wind. This and some mid level
cloud cover was keeping the visibilities from lowering into the
IFR category at the terminals. Will start to see a big low level
moisture push by the afternoon and will see ceilings drop into
MVFR category later in the afternoon and continue through the
nighttime hours. Could see some rain develop late tonight and have
put in a prob 30 group at the 3 sites to cover this. Temperatures
should remain above freezing tonight with a strong warm air
advection pattern setting up. Could see some IFR conditions
develop overnight as ceilings dip below 1000 feet.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Lindenberg

000
FXUS63 KSGF 021123
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
523 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 347 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015
Surface high pressure is currently over the region early this
morning and will slide off to the east today. The low level cloud
deck that was over the region yesterday has cleared most of the
region early this morning. High level clouds have on the other
hand are increasing from the southwest to northeast early this
morning. Portions of central Missouri that have been clear of both
the low and high level clouds have had temperatures drop well
into the teens early this morning, and some patchy ground fog was
able to develop. With the high level clouds now starting to spread
into central Missouri do not expect widespread fog this morning, but some
patchy light ground fog will still occur in spots this morning. With
temperatures well in the 20s and teens there could be some black
ice where ground fog does develop this morning.
High level clouds will remain over the area today and the low
level cloud deck that shifted south into Arkansas overnight will
spread back to the north and over the area this afternoon. With
the clouds expected today highs will be in in the middle 30s
across central Missouri to the lower 40s across extreme
southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri.
Isentoripic lift will spread north across the area late this
afternoon into tonight ahead of an upper level trough that will be
pushing east into the Plains. Low level moisture will be in place
but mid level moisture may still be on the dry side into tonight..
This will lead to more drizzle occurring in the lift from late
this afternoon into tonight. This isentorpic lift will occur in
an area of strong warm air advection and lows tonight will be in
the middle 30s across much of the area. Portions of the eastern
Ozarks may drop to around the freezing mark tonight but this would
only be briefly, so no freezing precipitation is expected tonight
into Tuesday morning.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 347 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015
The upper level trough and surface low will lift northeast into
Iowa on Tuesday. Cloudy conditions will persist but with the warm
air mass spreading north highs will still be able to top out in
the 50s on Tuesday. Gusty southwesterly winds will develop across
the region on Tuesday as the pressure gradient increases ahead of
the approaching low pressure system. As the upper level trough and
surface low pushes east a cold front will sweep from northwest to
southeast across the area late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
evening. Isolated scattered showers will be possible ahead and
along the front Tuesday afternoon and evening. The best coverage
of showers will be across southern central Missouri where better
moisture will be. Some weak instability will also spread north
into southern Missouri and a thunderstorms or two will be
possible, but instability will be on the weak side so no severe
weather is expected.
A much colder and drier air mass will spread in the area behind
the front and will end precipitation fairly quickly behind the
front Tuesday evening. Another upper level trough will spread
southeast into and across the northern Plains Tuesday night into
Wednesday into the region, then will spread off to the east
Wednesday night. Moisture will quickly spread north back into the
region Tuesday night into Wednesday ahead of this system. A strong
upper level jet streak will develop with this system and create
strong lift over the region. As the upper level wave pushes
towards the region an area of precipitation will develop early
Wednesday morning and continue into the day. As the system slides
southeast the precipitation will too, however when the trough
pivots to the east the band will also shift more to the east and
may stall briefly on an area, though exactly where this will occur
is still in question.
Strong cold air convection will occur with this system and with
height falls from the approach trough all snow is expected this
far north. With the lift in place there could be some moderate to
even heavy snow that develop. Confidence is increasing that
accumulating snow will occur over the region, however, there are
still questions on how far north it develops and exactly where and
when the pivot occurs. There will likely be a tight gradient in
snowfall amounts from northwest to southeast across the area due
to this, and at this time have the lightest snow amounts across
southeastern Kansas and heaviest across south central Missouri. It
is still too early to pin point the exact track of this system and where
exactly where the area or more light large band of snow will
develop. Therefore, amounts may have to be shifted slight north
or south when the track becomes more clear. The snow will push out
of the area Wednesday evening.
A much colder air mass will spread over the area Wednesday into
Thursday as highs in the 20s occur Wednesday and upper 20s to
lower 30s on Thursday with lows in the teens to single digits
expected Thursday morning. Wind chill values in the 5 below to 5
above range are expected Thursday morning.
After the cold conditions mid week and warming trend will occur
Friday into the weekend as highs in the 50s return this weekend
with dry weather expected.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 517 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015
High pressure was centered to the northeast of the terminals early
this morning with a steady northeast wind. This and some mid level
cloud cover was keeping the visibilities from lowering into the
IFR category at the terminals. Will start to see a big low level
moisture push by the afternoon and will see ceilings drop into
MVFR category later in the afternoon and continue through the
nighttime hours. Could see some rain develop late tonight and have
put in a prob 30 group at the 3 sites to cover this. Temperatures
should remain above freezing tonight with a strong warm air
advection pattern setting up. Could see some IFR conditions
develop overnight as ceilings dip below 1000 feet.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Lindenberg

000
FXUS63 KSGF 020957
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
357 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 347 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015
Surface high pressure is currently over the region early this
morning and will slide off to the east today. The low level cloud
deck that was over the region yesterday has cleared most of the
region early this morning. High level clouds have on the other
hand are increasing from the southwest to northeast early this
morning. Portions of central Missouri that have been clear of both
the low and high level clouds have had temperatures drop well
into the teens early this morning, and some patchy ground fog was
able to develop. With the high level clouds now starting to spread
into central Missouri do not expect widespread fog this morning, but some
patchy light ground fog will still occur in spots this morning. With
temperatures well in the 20s and teens there could be some black
ice where ground fog does develop this morning.
High level clouds will remain over the area today and the low
level cloud deck that shifted south into Arkansas overnight will
spread back to the north and over the area this afternoon. With
the clouds expected today highs will be in in the middle 30s
across central Missouri to the lower 40s across extreme
southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri.
Isentoripic lift will spread north across the area late this
afternoon into tonight ahead of an upper level trough that will be
pushing east into the Plains. Low level moisture will be in place
but mid level moisture may still be on the dry side into tonight..
This will lead to more drizzle occurring in the lift from late
this afternoon into tonight. This isentorpic lift will occur in
an area of strong warm air advection and lows tonight will be in
the middle 30s across much of the area. Portions of the eastern
Ozarks may drop to around the freezing mark tonight but this would
only be briefly, so no freezing precipitation is expected tonight
into Tuesday morning.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 347 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015
The upper level trough and surface low will lift northeast into
Iowa on Tuesday. Cloudy conditions will persist but with the warm
air mass spreading north highs will still be able to top out in
the 50s on Tuesday. Gusty southwesterly winds will develop across
the region on Tuesday as the pressure gradient increases ahead of
the approaching low pressure system. As the upper level trough and
surface low pushes east a cold front will sweep from northwest to
southeast across the area late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
evening. Isolated scattered showers will be possible ahead and
along the front Tuesday afternoon and evening. The best coverage
of showers will be across southern central Missouri where better
moisture will be. Some weak instability will also spread north
into southern Missouri and a thunderstorms or two will be
possible, but instability will be on the weak side so no severe
weather is expected.
A much colder and drier air mass will spread in the area behind
the front and will end precipitation fairly quickly behind the
front Tuesday evening. Another upper level trough will spread
southeast into and across the northern Plains Tuesday night into
Wednesday into the region, then will spread off to the east
Wednesday night. Moisture will quickly spread north back into the
region Tuesday night into Wednesday ahead of this system. A strong
upper level jet streak will develop with this system and create
strong lift over the region. As the upper level wave pushes
towards the region an area of precipitation will develop early
Wednesday morning and continue into the day. As the system slides
southeast the precipitation will too, however when the trough
pivots to the east the band will also shift more to the east and
may stall briefly on an area, though exactly where this will occur
is still in question.
Strong cold air convection will occur with this system and with
height falls from the approach trough all snow is expected this
far north. With the lift in place there could be some moderate to
even heavy snow that develop. Confidence is increasing that
accumulating snow will occur over the region, however, there are
still questions on how far north it develops and exactly where and
when the pivot occurs. There will likely be a tight gradient in
snowfall amounts from northwest to southeast across the area due
to this, and at this time have the lightest snow amounts across
southeastern Kansas and heaviest across south central Missouri. It
is still too early to pin point the exact track of this system and where
exactly where the area or more light large band of snow will
develop. Therefore, amounts may have to be shifted slight north
or south when the track becomes more clear. The snow will push out
of the area Wednesday evening.
A much colder air mass will spread over the area Wednesday into
Thursday as highs in the 20s occur Wednesday and upper 20s to
lower 30s on Thursday with lows in the teens to single digits
expected Thursday morning. Wind chill values in the 5 below to 5
above range are expected Thursday morning.
After the cold conditions mid week and warming trend will occur
Friday into the weekend as highs in the 50s return this weekend
with dry weather expected.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1115 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: A MVFR stratus deck is
currently slowly clearing from north to south across the area this
evening. The clearing line has pushed south of the KSGF and KJLN
sites but remains over the KBBG TAF site late this evening. The
clearing line will continue to push south and through the KBBG
site overnight.
Surface highs pressure is sliding south into the area and will
result in light winds overnight. With the clearing skies and
the snow pack on the ground some light ground fog is expected to
develop through the early morning hours Monday. The fog will burn
off fairly quickly Monday morning.
The area of surface high pressure will spread off to the east on
Monday and allow the MVFR clouds deck to spread back to the north
over the area Monday afternoon.
Southeasterly winds will develop at the surface Monday evening,
and this will setup the potential for gusty winds at the KSGF as
due to terrain funnel affects.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise

000
FXUS63 KSGF 020957
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
357 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 347 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015
Surface high pressure is currently over the region early this
morning and will slide off to the east today. The low level cloud
deck that was over the region yesterday has cleared most of the
region early this morning. High level clouds have on the other
hand are increasing from the southwest to northeast early this
morning. Portions of central Missouri that have been clear of both
the low and high level clouds have had temperatures drop well
into the teens early this morning, and some patchy ground fog was
able to develop. With the high level clouds now starting to spread
into central Missouri do not expect widespread fog this morning, but some
patchy light ground fog will still occur in spots this morning. With
temperatures well in the 20s and teens there could be some black
ice where ground fog does develop this morning.
High level clouds will remain over the area today and the low
level cloud deck that shifted south into Arkansas overnight will
spread back to the north and over the area this afternoon. With
the clouds expected today highs will be in in the middle 30s
across central Missouri to the lower 40s across extreme
southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri.
Isentoripic lift will spread north across the area late this
afternoon into tonight ahead of an upper level trough that will be
pushing east into the Plains. Low level moisture will be in place
but mid level moisture may still be on the dry side into tonight..
This will lead to more drizzle occurring in the lift from late
this afternoon into tonight. This isentorpic lift will occur in
an area of strong warm air advection and lows tonight will be in
the middle 30s across much of the area. Portions of the eastern
Ozarks may drop to around the freezing mark tonight but this would
only be briefly, so no freezing precipitation is expected tonight
into Tuesday morning.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 347 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015
The upper level trough and surface low will lift northeast into
Iowa on Tuesday. Cloudy conditions will persist but with the warm
air mass spreading north highs will still be able to top out in
the 50s on Tuesday. Gusty southwesterly winds will develop across
the region on Tuesday as the pressure gradient increases ahead of
the approaching low pressure system. As the upper level trough and
surface low pushes east a cold front will sweep from northwest to
southeast across the area late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
evening. Isolated scattered showers will be possible ahead and
along the front Tuesday afternoon and evening. The best coverage
of showers will be across southern central Missouri where better
moisture will be. Some weak instability will also spread north
into southern Missouri and a thunderstorms or two will be
possible, but instability will be on the weak side so no severe
weather is expected.
A much colder and drier air mass will spread in the area behind
the front and will end precipitation fairly quickly behind the
front Tuesday evening. Another upper level trough will spread
southeast into and across the northern Plains Tuesday night into
Wednesday into the region, then will spread off to the east
Wednesday night. Moisture will quickly spread north back into the
region Tuesday night into Wednesday ahead of this system. A strong
upper level jet streak will develop with this system and create
strong lift over the region. As the upper level wave pushes
towards the region an area of precipitation will develop early
Wednesday morning and continue into the day. As the system slides
southeast the precipitation will too, however when the trough
pivots to the east the band will also shift more to the east and
may stall briefly on an area, though exactly where this will occur
is still in question.
Strong cold air convection will occur with this system and with
height falls from the approach trough all snow is expected this
far north. With the lift in place there could be some moderate to
even heavy snow that develop. Confidence is increasing that
accumulating snow will occur over the region, however, there are
still questions on how far north it develops and exactly where and
when the pivot occurs. There will likely be a tight gradient in
snowfall amounts from northwest to southeast across the area due
to this, and at this time have the lightest snow amounts across
southeastern Kansas and heaviest across south central Missouri. It
is still too early to pin point the exact track of this system and where
exactly where the area or more light large band of snow will
develop. Therefore, amounts may have to be shifted slight north
or south when the track becomes more clear. The snow will push out
of the area Wednesday evening.
A much colder air mass will spread over the area Wednesday into
Thursday as highs in the 20s occur Wednesday and upper 20s to
lower 30s on Thursday with lows in the teens to single digits
expected Thursday morning. Wind chill values in the 5 below to 5
above range are expected Thursday morning.
After the cold conditions mid week and warming trend will occur
Friday into the weekend as highs in the 50s return this weekend
with dry weather expected.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1115 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: A MVFR stratus deck is
currently slowly clearing from north to south across the area this
evening. The clearing line has pushed south of the KSGF and KJLN
sites but remains over the KBBG TAF site late this evening. The
clearing line will continue to push south and through the KBBG
site overnight.
Surface highs pressure is sliding south into the area and will
result in light winds overnight. With the clearing skies and
the snow pack on the ground some light ground fog is expected to
develop through the early morning hours Monday. The fog will burn
off fairly quickly Monday morning.
The area of surface high pressure will spread off to the east on
Monday and allow the MVFR clouds deck to spread back to the north
over the area Monday afternoon.
Southeasterly winds will develop at the surface Monday evening,
and this will setup the potential for gusty winds at the KSGF as
due to terrain funnel affects.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise

000
FXUS63 KSGF 020957
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
357 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 347 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015
Surface high pressure is currently over the region early this
morning and will slide off to the east today. The low level cloud
deck that was over the region yesterday has cleared most of the
region early this morning. High level clouds have on the other
hand are increasing from the southwest to northeast early this
morning. Portions of central Missouri that have been clear of both
the low and high level clouds have had temperatures drop well
into the teens early this morning, and some patchy ground fog was
able to develop. With the high level clouds now starting to spread
into central Missouri do not expect widespread fog this morning, but some
patchy light ground fog will still occur in spots this morning. With
temperatures well in the 20s and teens there could be some black
ice where ground fog does develop this morning.
High level clouds will remain over the area today and the low
level cloud deck that shifted south into Arkansas overnight will
spread back to the north and over the area this afternoon. With
the clouds expected today highs will be in in the middle 30s
across central Missouri to the lower 40s across extreme
southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri.
Isentoripic lift will spread north across the area late this
afternoon into tonight ahead of an upper level trough that will be
pushing east into the Plains. Low level moisture will be in place
but mid level moisture may still be on the dry side into tonight..
This will lead to more drizzle occurring in the lift from late
this afternoon into tonight. This isentorpic lift will occur in
an area of strong warm air advection and lows tonight will be in
the middle 30s across much of the area. Portions of the eastern
Ozarks may drop to around the freezing mark tonight but this would
only be briefly, so no freezing precipitation is expected tonight
into Tuesday morning.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 347 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015
The upper level trough and surface low will lift northeast into
Iowa on Tuesday. Cloudy conditions will persist but with the warm
air mass spreading north highs will still be able to top out in
the 50s on Tuesday. Gusty southwesterly winds will develop across
the region on Tuesday as the pressure gradient increases ahead of
the approaching low pressure system. As the upper level trough and
surface low pushes east a cold front will sweep from northwest to
southeast across the area late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
evening. Isolated scattered showers will be possible ahead and
along the front Tuesday afternoon and evening. The best coverage
of showers will be across southern central Missouri where better
moisture will be. Some weak instability will also spread north
into southern Missouri and a thunderstorms or two will be
possible, but instability will be on the weak side so no severe
weather is expected.
A much colder and drier air mass will spread in the area behind
the front and will end precipitation fairly quickly behind the
front Tuesday evening. Another upper level trough will spread
southeast into and across the northern Plains Tuesday night into
Wednesday into the region, then will spread off to the east
Wednesday night. Moisture will quickly spread north back into the
region Tuesday night into Wednesday ahead of this system. A strong
upper level jet streak will develop with this system and create
strong lift over the region. As the upper level wave pushes
towards the region an area of precipitation will develop early
Wednesday morning and continue into the day. As the system slides
southeast the precipitation will too, however when the trough
pivots to the east the band will also shift more to the east and
may stall briefly on an area, though exactly where this will occur
is still in question.
Strong cold air convection will occur with this system and with
height falls from the approach trough all snow is expected this
far north. With the lift in place there could be some moderate to
even heavy snow that develop. Confidence is increasing that
accumulating snow will occur over the region, however, there are
still questions on how far north it develops and exactly where and
when the pivot occurs. There will likely be a tight gradient in
snowfall amounts from northwest to southeast across the area due
to this, and at this time have the lightest snow amounts across
southeastern Kansas and heaviest across south central Missouri. It
is still too early to pin point the exact track of this system and where
exactly where the area or more light large band of snow will
develop. Therefore, amounts may have to be shifted slight north
or south when the track becomes more clear. The snow will push out
of the area Wednesday evening.
A much colder air mass will spread over the area Wednesday into
Thursday as highs in the 20s occur Wednesday and upper 20s to
lower 30s on Thursday with lows in the teens to single digits
expected Thursday morning. Wind chill values in the 5 below to 5
above range are expected Thursday morning.
After the cold conditions mid week and warming trend will occur
Friday into the weekend as highs in the 50s return this weekend
with dry weather expected.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1115 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: A MVFR stratus deck is
currently slowly clearing from north to south across the area this
evening. The clearing line has pushed south of the KSGF and KJLN
sites but remains over the KBBG TAF site late this evening. The
clearing line will continue to push south and through the KBBG
site overnight.
Surface highs pressure is sliding south into the area and will
result in light winds overnight. With the clearing skies and
the snow pack on the ground some light ground fog is expected to
develop through the early morning hours Monday. The fog will burn
off fairly quickly Monday morning.
The area of surface high pressure will spread off to the east on
Monday and allow the MVFR clouds deck to spread back to the north
over the area Monday afternoon.
Southeasterly winds will develop at the surface Monday evening,
and this will setup the potential for gusty winds at the KSGF as
due to terrain funnel affects.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise

000
FXUS63 KSGF 020957
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
357 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 347 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015
Surface high pressure is currently over the region early this
morning and will slide off to the east today. The low level cloud
deck that was over the region yesterday has cleared most of the
region early this morning. High level clouds have on the other
hand are increasing from the southwest to northeast early this
morning. Portions of central Missouri that have been clear of both
the low and high level clouds have had temperatures drop well
into the teens early this morning, and some patchy ground fog was
able to develop. With the high level clouds now starting to spread
into central Missouri do not expect widespread fog this morning, but some
patchy light ground fog will still occur in spots this morning. With
temperatures well in the 20s and teens there could be some black
ice where ground fog does develop this morning.
High level clouds will remain over the area today and the low
level cloud deck that shifted south into Arkansas overnight will
spread back to the north and over the area this afternoon. With
the clouds expected today highs will be in in the middle 30s
across central Missouri to the lower 40s across extreme
southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri.
Isentoripic lift will spread north across the area late this
afternoon into tonight ahead of an upper level trough that will be
pushing east into the Plains. Low level moisture will be in place
but mid level moisture may still be on the dry side into tonight..
This will lead to more drizzle occurring in the lift from late
this afternoon into tonight. This isentorpic lift will occur in
an area of strong warm air advection and lows tonight will be in
the middle 30s across much of the area. Portions of the eastern
Ozarks may drop to around the freezing mark tonight but this would
only be briefly, so no freezing precipitation is expected tonight
into Tuesday morning.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 347 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015
The upper level trough and surface low will lift northeast into
Iowa on Tuesday. Cloudy conditions will persist but with the warm
air mass spreading north highs will still be able to top out in
the 50s on Tuesday. Gusty southwesterly winds will develop across
the region on Tuesday as the pressure gradient increases ahead of
the approaching low pressure system. As the upper level trough and
surface low pushes east a cold front will sweep from northwest to
southeast across the area late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday
evening. Isolated scattered showers will be possible ahead and
along the front Tuesday afternoon and evening. The best coverage
of showers will be across southern central Missouri where better
moisture will be. Some weak instability will also spread north
into southern Missouri and a thunderstorms or two will be
possible, but instability will be on the weak side so no severe
weather is expected.
A much colder and drier air mass will spread in the area behind
the front and will end precipitation fairly quickly behind the
front Tuesday evening. Another upper level trough will spread
southeast into and across the northern Plains Tuesday night into
Wednesday into the region, then will spread off to the east
Wednesday night. Moisture will quickly spread north back into the
region Tuesday night into Wednesday ahead of this system. A strong
upper level jet streak will develop with this system and create
strong lift over the region. As the upper level wave pushes
towards the region an area of precipitation will develop early
Wednesday morning and continue into the day. As the system slides
southeast the precipitation will too, however when the trough
pivots to the east the band will also shift more to the east and
may stall briefly on an area, though exactly where this will occur
is still in question.
Strong cold air convection will occur with this system and with
height falls from the approach trough all snow is expected this
far north. With the lift in place there could be some moderate to
even heavy snow that develop. Confidence is increasing that
accumulating snow will occur over the region, however, there are
still questions on how far north it develops and exactly where and
when the pivot occurs. There will likely be a tight gradient in
snowfall amounts from northwest to southeast across the area due
to this, and at this time have the lightest snow amounts across
southeastern Kansas and heaviest across south central Missouri. It
is still too early to pin point the exact track of this system and where
exactly where the area or more light large band of snow will
develop. Therefore, amounts may have to be shifted slight north
or south when the track becomes more clear. The snow will push out
of the area Wednesday evening.
A much colder air mass will spread over the area Wednesday into
Thursday as highs in the 20s occur Wednesday and upper 20s to
lower 30s on Thursday with lows in the teens to single digits
expected Thursday morning. Wind chill values in the 5 below to 5
above range are expected Thursday morning.
After the cold conditions mid week and warming trend will occur
Friday into the weekend as highs in the 50s return this weekend
with dry weather expected.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1115 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: A MVFR stratus deck is
currently slowly clearing from north to south across the area this
evening. The clearing line has pushed south of the KSGF and KJLN
sites but remains over the KBBG TAF site late this evening. The
clearing line will continue to push south and through the KBBG
site overnight.
Surface highs pressure is sliding south into the area and will
result in light winds overnight. With the clearing skies and
the snow pack on the ground some light ground fog is expected to
develop through the early morning hours Monday. The fog will burn
off fairly quickly Monday morning.
The area of surface high pressure will spread off to the east on
Monday and allow the MVFR clouds deck to spread back to the north
over the area Monday afternoon.
Southeasterly winds will develop at the surface Monday evening,
and this will setup the potential for gusty winds at the KSGF as
due to terrain funnel affects.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise

000
FXUS63 KSGF 020516
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1116 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015
...Update to Aviation for 06Z TAFS...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 242 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
The final round of precipitation from the latest winter storm is
lifting across central Missouri this afternoon. The mix of
freezing rain, sleet and snow should continue its northeastward
track, with little to no additional winter weather expected across
the CWA for the rest of today. All Winter Weather Advisories have
been allowed to expire.
High pressure will nose south into the region tonight, with light
northeast winds becoming easterly and then southeasterly with time.
Lows tonight will range from the low 20s over southern Missouri to
the upper teens across the U.S. 54 corridor.
Most of the daytime hours on Monday will be dry, with temperatures
warming into the 40s. Relatively mild conditions will continue into
Monday night, as a stout southerly surface flow advects increasing
amounts of moisture into the area. Despite tomorrow`s above
freezing temperatures, suspect there will still be a decent amount
of snow in place in many locations Monday evening, and as higher
dewpoint air moves into the region, fog formation looks to be a
decent bet. Showers should then become more numerous during the
overnight hours, With rain showers and even a few thunderstorms
occurring through Tuesday afternoon. Most spots will make it into
the low 50s Tuesday.
As surface high pressure lifts north from the Kansas City area into
the southern Great Lakes, a strong cold front will sweep across the
region late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, with much colder
air building into the area Tuesday night. Lingering precipitation
associated with the cold front may end as a bit of light snow
Tuesday night.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 242 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
Heading into Wednesday, the cold front will slow to our south, as a
strong mid and upper level jet strengthens and backbuilds from the
Great Lakes into the Central Plains. Right now, there remains a
fair amount of uncertainty as to where exactly the upper jet axis
will develop, with the ECMWF a bit further north than the GFS and SREF
mean, with the GFS Ensemble mean and GEM somewhere in between. The
exact location of the right entrance region of said jet will be key
to snow potential for Wednesday, with a fairly intense band of snow
expected to develop where the jet circulation combines with an area
of low level frontogenesis. Right now, it`s not clear whether this
will happen across our CWA (south of I-44 would be most prone) or
whether the band will remain south of the entire forecast area.
Have hedged a bit toward a more southerly solution, given the
tendency of model guidance to underestimate the speed and magnitude
of strong cold air advection, and thus placing the low level
baroclinic zone too far north. The more northerly solution
certainly can`t be discounted, however, and this bears close
watching over the next couple of days.
After a chilly few days to end the workweek, extended guidance
continues to suggest a bit of a pattern change going into next
weekend, with the eastern trough retreating a bit, allowing
ridging to advance east into the High Plains. This would imply a
warming trend for the region, with highs returning to, or perhaps
evening surpassing climatological averages by early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1115 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: A MVFR stratus deck is
currently slowly clearing from north to south across the area this
evening. The clearing line has pushed south of the KSGF and KJLN
sites but remains over the KBBG TAF site late this evening. The
clearing line will continue to push south and through the KBBG
site overnight.
Surface highs pressure is sliding south into the area and will
result in light winds overnight. With the clearing skies and
the snow pack on the ground some light ground fog is expected to
develop through the early morning hours Monday. The fog will burn
off fairly quickly Monday morning.
The area of surface high pressure will spread off to the east on
Monday and allow the MVFR clouds deck to spread back to the north
over the area Monday afternoon.
Southeasterly winds will develop at the surface Monday evening,
and this will setup the potential for gusty winds at the KSGF as
due to terrain funnel affects.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Wise

000
FXUS63 KSGF 020516
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1116 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015
...Update to Aviation for 06Z TAFS...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 242 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
The final round of precipitation from the latest winter storm is
lifting across central Missouri this afternoon. The mix of
freezing rain, sleet and snow should continue its northeastward
track, with little to no additional winter weather expected across
the CWA for the rest of today. All Winter Weather Advisories have
been allowed to expire.
High pressure will nose south into the region tonight, with light
northeast winds becoming easterly and then southeasterly with time.
Lows tonight will range from the low 20s over southern Missouri to
the upper teens across the U.S. 54 corridor.
Most of the daytime hours on Monday will be dry, with temperatures
warming into the 40s. Relatively mild conditions will continue into
Monday night, as a stout southerly surface flow advects increasing
amounts of moisture into the area. Despite tomorrow`s above
freezing temperatures, suspect there will still be a decent amount
of snow in place in many locations Monday evening, and as higher
dewpoint air moves into the region, fog formation looks to be a
decent bet. Showers should then become more numerous during the
overnight hours, With rain showers and even a few thunderstorms
occurring through Tuesday afternoon. Most spots will make it into
the low 50s Tuesday.
As surface high pressure lifts north from the Kansas City area into
the southern Great Lakes, a strong cold front will sweep across the
region late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, with much colder
air building into the area Tuesday night. Lingering precipitation
associated with the cold front may end as a bit of light snow
Tuesday night.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 242 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
Heading into Wednesday, the cold front will slow to our south, as a
strong mid and upper level jet strengthens and backbuilds from the
Great Lakes into the Central Plains. Right now, there remains a
fair amount of uncertainty as to where exactly the upper jet axis
will develop, with the ECMWF a bit further north than the GFS and SREF
mean, with the GFS Ensemble mean and GEM somewhere in between. The
exact location of the right entrance region of said jet will be key
to snow potential for Wednesday, with a fairly intense band of snow
expected to develop where the jet circulation combines with an area
of low level frontogenesis. Right now, it`s not clear whether this
will happen across our CWA (south of I-44 would be most prone) or
whether the band will remain south of the entire forecast area.
Have hedged a bit toward a more southerly solution, given the
tendency of model guidance to underestimate the speed and magnitude
of strong cold air advection, and thus placing the low level
baroclinic zone too far north. The more northerly solution
certainly can`t be discounted, however, and this bears close
watching over the next couple of days.
After a chilly few days to end the workweek, extended guidance
continues to suggest a bit of a pattern change going into next
weekend, with the eastern trough retreating a bit, allowing
ridging to advance east into the High Plains. This would imply a
warming trend for the region, with highs returning to, or perhaps
evening surpassing climatological averages by early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1115 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: A MVFR stratus deck is
currently slowly clearing from north to south across the area this
evening. The clearing line has pushed south of the KSGF and KJLN
sites but remains over the KBBG TAF site late this evening. The
clearing line will continue to push south and through the KBBG
site overnight.
Surface highs pressure is sliding south into the area and will
result in light winds overnight. With the clearing skies and
the snow pack on the ground some light ground fog is expected to
develop through the early morning hours Monday. The fog will burn
off fairly quickly Monday morning.
The area of surface high pressure will spread off to the east on
Monday and allow the MVFR clouds deck to spread back to the north
over the area Monday afternoon.
Southeasterly winds will develop at the surface Monday evening,
and this will setup the potential for gusty winds at the KSGF as
due to terrain funnel affects.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Wise

000
FXUS63 KSGF 020516
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1116 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015
...Update to Aviation for 06Z TAFS...
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 242 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
The final round of precipitation from the latest winter storm is
lifting across central Missouri this afternoon. The mix of
freezing rain, sleet and snow should continue its northeastward
track, with little to no additional winter weather expected across
the CWA for the rest of today. All Winter Weather Advisories have
been allowed to expire.
High pressure will nose south into the region tonight, with light
northeast winds becoming easterly and then southeasterly with time.
Lows tonight will range from the low 20s over southern Missouri to
the upper teens across the U.S. 54 corridor.
Most of the daytime hours on Monday will be dry, with temperatures
warming into the 40s. Relatively mild conditions will continue into
Monday night, as a stout southerly surface flow advects increasing
amounts of moisture into the area. Despite tomorrow`s above
freezing temperatures, suspect there will still be a decent amount
of snow in place in many locations Monday evening, and as higher
dewpoint air moves into the region, fog formation looks to be a
decent bet. Showers should then become more numerous during the
overnight hours, With rain showers and even a few thunderstorms
occurring through Tuesday afternoon. Most spots will make it into
the low 50s Tuesday.
As surface high pressure lifts north from the Kansas City area into
the southern Great Lakes, a strong cold front will sweep across the
region late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, with much colder
air building into the area Tuesday night. Lingering precipitation
associated with the cold front may end as a bit of light snow
Tuesday night.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 242 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
Heading into Wednesday, the cold front will slow to our south, as a
strong mid and upper level jet strengthens and backbuilds from the
Great Lakes into the Central Plains. Right now, there remains a
fair amount of uncertainty as to where exactly the upper jet axis
will develop, with the ECMWF a bit further north than the GFS and SREF
mean, with the GFS Ensemble mean and GEM somewhere in between. The
exact location of the right entrance region of said jet will be key
to snow potential for Wednesday, with a fairly intense band of snow
expected to develop where the jet circulation combines with an area
of low level frontogenesis. Right now, it`s not clear whether this
will happen across our CWA (south of I-44 would be most prone) or
whether the band will remain south of the entire forecast area.
Have hedged a bit toward a more southerly solution, given the
tendency of model guidance to underestimate the speed and magnitude
of strong cold air advection, and thus placing the low level
baroclinic zone too far north. The more northerly solution
certainly can`t be discounted, however, and this bears close
watching over the next couple of days.
After a chilly few days to end the workweek, extended guidance
continues to suggest a bit of a pattern change going into next
weekend, with the eastern trough retreating a bit, allowing
ridging to advance east into the High Plains. This would imply a
warming trend for the region, with highs returning to, or perhaps
evening surpassing climatological averages by early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1115 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: A MVFR stratus deck is
currently slowly clearing from north to south across the area this
evening. The clearing line has pushed south of the KSGF and KJLN
sites but remains over the KBBG TAF site late this evening. The
clearing line will continue to push south and through the KBBG
site overnight.
Surface highs pressure is sliding south into the area and will
result in light winds overnight. With the clearing skies and
the snow pack on the ground some light ground fog is expected to
develop through the early morning hours Monday. The fog will burn
off fairly quickly Monday morning.
The area of surface high pressure will spread off to the east on
Monday and allow the MVFR clouds deck to spread back to the north
over the area Monday afternoon.
Southeasterly winds will develop at the surface Monday evening,
and this will setup the potential for gusty winds at the KSGF as
due to terrain funnel affects.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Wise

000
FXUS63 KSGF 012327
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
527 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 242 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
The final round of precipitation from the latest winter storm is
lifting across central Missouri this afternoon. The mix of
freezing rain, sleet and snow should continue its northeastward
track, with little to no additional winter weather expected across
the CWA for the rest of today. All Winter Weather Advisories have
been allowed to expire.
High pressure will nose south into the region tonight, with light
northeast winds becoming easterly and then southeasterly with time.
Lows tonight will range from the low 20s over southern Missouri to
the upper teens across the U.S. 54 corridor.
Most of the daytime hours on Monday will be dry, with temperatures
warming into the 40s. Relatively mild conditions will continue into
Monday night, as a stout southerly surface flow advects increasing
amounts of moisture into the area. Despite tomorrow`s above
freezing temperatures, suspect there will still be a decent amount
of snow in place in many locations Monday evening, and as higher
dewpoint air moves into the region, fog formation looks to be a
decent bet. Showers should then become more numerous during the
overnight hours, With rain showers and even a few thunderstorms
occurring through Tuesday afternoon. Most spots will make it into
the low 50s Tuesday.
As surface high pressure lifts north from the Kansas City area into
the southern Great Lakes, a strong cold front will sweep across the
region late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, with much colder
air building into the area Tuesday night. Lingering precipitation
associated with the cold front may end as a bit of light snow
Tuesday night.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 242 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
Heading into Wednesday, the cold front will slow to our south, as a
strong mid and upper level jet strengthens and backbuilds from the
Great Lakes into the Central Plains. Right now, there remains a
fair amount of uncertainty as to where exactly the upper jet axis
will develop, with the ECMWF a bit further north than the GFS and SREF
mean, with the GFS Ensemble mean and GEM somewhere in between. The
exact location of the right entrance region of said jet will be key
to snow potential for Wednesday, with a fairly intense band of snow
expected to develop where the jet circulation combines with an area
of low level frontogenesis. Right now, it`s not clear whether this
will happen across our CWA (south of I-44 would be most prone) or
whether the band will remain south of the entire forecast area.
Have hedged a bit toward a more southerly solution, given the
tendency of model guidance to underestimate the speed and magnitude
of strong cold air advection, and thus placing the low level
baroclinic zone too far north. The more northerly solution
certainly can`t be discounted, however, and this bears close
watching over the next couple of days.
After a chilly few days to end the workweek, extended guidance
continues to suggest a bit of a pattern change going into next
weekend, with the eastern trough retreating a bit, allowing
ridging to advance east into the High Plains. This would imply a
warming trend for the region, with highs returning to, or perhaps
evening surpassing climatological averages by early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 515 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
As the latest storm system departs and surface high pressure moves
in...getting some breaks to VFR ceilings to the north and west of
the KSGF/KJLN aerodromes. Believe these two aerodromes will
eventually go VFR for a little while this evening. MVFR fog
possible at all TAF sites overnight with KBBG remaining IFR.
Visibilities should improve after 12-14z with winds gradually
veering around to southeast during the day.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Gaede

000
FXUS63 KSGF 012327
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
527 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 242 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
The final round of precipitation from the latest winter storm is
lifting across central Missouri this afternoon. The mix of
freezing rain, sleet and snow should continue its northeastward
track, with little to no additional winter weather expected across
the CWA for the rest of today. All Winter Weather Advisories have
been allowed to expire.
High pressure will nose south into the region tonight, with light
northeast winds becoming easterly and then southeasterly with time.
Lows tonight will range from the low 20s over southern Missouri to
the upper teens across the U.S. 54 corridor.
Most of the daytime hours on Monday will be dry, with temperatures
warming into the 40s. Relatively mild conditions will continue into
Monday night, as a stout southerly surface flow advects increasing
amounts of moisture into the area. Despite tomorrow`s above
freezing temperatures, suspect there will still be a decent amount
of snow in place in many locations Monday evening, and as higher
dewpoint air moves into the region, fog formation looks to be a
decent bet. Showers should then become more numerous during the
overnight hours, With rain showers and even a few thunderstorms
occurring through Tuesday afternoon. Most spots will make it into
the low 50s Tuesday.
As surface high pressure lifts north from the Kansas City area into
the southern Great Lakes, a strong cold front will sweep across the
region late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, with much colder
air building into the area Tuesday night. Lingering precipitation
associated with the cold front may end as a bit of light snow
Tuesday night.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 242 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
Heading into Wednesday, the cold front will slow to our south, as a
strong mid and upper level jet strengthens and backbuilds from the
Great Lakes into the Central Plains. Right now, there remains a
fair amount of uncertainty as to where exactly the upper jet axis
will develop, with the ECMWF a bit further north than the GFS and SREF
mean, with the GFS Ensemble mean and GEM somewhere in between. The
exact location of the right entrance region of said jet will be key
to snow potential for Wednesday, with a fairly intense band of snow
expected to develop where the jet circulation combines with an area
of low level frontogenesis. Right now, it`s not clear whether this
will happen across our CWA (south of I-44 would be most prone) or
whether the band will remain south of the entire forecast area.
Have hedged a bit toward a more southerly solution, given the
tendency of model guidance to underestimate the speed and magnitude
of strong cold air advection, and thus placing the low level
baroclinic zone too far north. The more northerly solution
certainly can`t be discounted, however, and this bears close
watching over the next couple of days.
After a chilly few days to end the workweek, extended guidance
continues to suggest a bit of a pattern change going into next
weekend, with the eastern trough retreating a bit, allowing
ridging to advance east into the High Plains. This would imply a
warming trend for the region, with highs returning to, or perhaps
evening surpassing climatological averages by early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 515 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
As the latest storm system departs and surface high pressure moves
in...getting some breaks to VFR ceilings to the north and west of
the KSGF/KJLN aerodromes. Believe these two aerodromes will
eventually go VFR for a little while this evening. MVFR fog
possible at all TAF sites overnight with KBBG remaining IFR.
Visibilities should improve after 12-14z with winds gradually
veering around to southeast during the day.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Gaede

000
FXUS63 KSGF 012051
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
251 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 242 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
The final round of precipitation from the latest winter storm is
lifting across central Missouri this afternoon. The mix of
freezing rain, sleet and snow should continue its northeastward
track, with little to no additional winter weather expected across
the CWA for the rest of today. All Winter Weather Advisories have
been allowed to expire.
High pressure will nose south into the region tonight, with light
northeast winds becoming easterly and then southeasterly with time.
Lows tonight will range from the low 20s over southern Missouri to
the upper teens across the U.S. 54 corridor.
Most of the daytime hours on Monday will be dry, with temperatures
warming into the 40s. Relatively mild conditions will continue into
Monday night, as a stout southerly surface flow advects increasing
amounts of moisture into the area. Despite tomorrow`s above
freezing temperatures, suspect there will still be a decent amount
of snow in place in many locations Monday evening, and as higher
dewpoint air moves into the region, fog formation looks to be a
decent bet. Showers should then become more numerous during the
overnight hours, With rain showers and even a few thunderstorms
occurring through Tuesday afternoon. Most spots will make it into
the low 50s Tuesday.
As surface high pressure lifts north from the Kansas City area into
the southern Great Lakes, a strong cold front will sweep across the
region late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, with much colder
air building into the area Tuesday night. Lingering precipitation
associated with the cold front may end as a bit of light snow
Tuesday night.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 242 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
Heading into Wednesday, the cold front will slow to our south, as a
strong mid and upper level jet strengthens and backbuilds from the
Great Lakes into the Central Plains. Right now, there remains a
fair amount of uncertainty as to where exactly the upper jet axis
will develop, with the ECMWF a bit further north than the GFS and SREF
mean, with the GFS Ensemble mean and GEM somewhere in between. The
exact location of the right entrance region of said jet will be key
to snow potential for Wednesday, with a fairly intense band of snow
expected to develop where the jet circulation combines with an area
of low level frontogenesis. Right now, it`s not clear whether this
will happen across our CWA (south of I-44 would be most prone) or
whether the band will remain south of the entire forecast area.
Have hedged a bit toward a more southerly solution, given the
tendency of model guidance to underestimate the speed and magnitude
of strong cold air advection, and thus placing the low level
baroclinic zone too far north. The more northerly solution
certainly can`t be discounted, however, and this bears close
watching over the next couple of days.
After a chilly few days to end the workweek, extended guidance
continues to suggest a bit of a pattern change going into next
weekend, with the eastern trough retreating a bit, allowing
ridging to advance east into the High Plains. This would imply a
warming trend for the region, with highs returning to, or perhaps
evening surpassing climatological averages by early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1152 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
IFR should linger at least into the mid to late afternoon at JLN,
and into the evening hours at SGF. Some improvement to MVFR is
then possible for these terminals, but confidence in this
occurring, as well as exact timing, is low. For BBG, suspect they
will remain in IFR through most of the night tonight.
Winds will remain light at all sites for the next 24 hours, with
light north winds becoming easterly, and eventually southeasterly,
by tomorrow.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Boxell

000
FXUS63 KSGF 012051
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
251 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 242 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
The final round of precipitation from the latest winter storm is
lifting across central Missouri this afternoon. The mix of
freezing rain, sleet and snow should continue its northeastward
track, with little to no additional winter weather expected across
the CWA for the rest of today. All Winter Weather Advisories have
been allowed to expire.
High pressure will nose south into the region tonight, with light
northeast winds becoming easterly and then southeasterly with time.
Lows tonight will range from the low 20s over southern Missouri to
the upper teens across the U.S. 54 corridor.
Most of the daytime hours on Monday will be dry, with temperatures
warming into the 40s. Relatively mild conditions will continue into
Monday night, as a stout southerly surface flow advects increasing
amounts of moisture into the area. Despite tomorrow`s above
freezing temperatures, suspect there will still be a decent amount
of snow in place in many locations Monday evening, and as higher
dewpoint air moves into the region, fog formation looks to be a
decent bet. Showers should then become more numerous during the
overnight hours, With rain showers and even a few thunderstorms
occurring through Tuesday afternoon. Most spots will make it into
the low 50s Tuesday.
As surface high pressure lifts north from the Kansas City area into
the southern Great Lakes, a strong cold front will sweep across the
region late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening, with much colder
air building into the area Tuesday night. Lingering precipitation
associated with the cold front may end as a bit of light snow
Tuesday night.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 242 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
Heading into Wednesday, the cold front will slow to our south, as a
strong mid and upper level jet strengthens and backbuilds from the
Great Lakes into the Central Plains. Right now, there remains a
fair amount of uncertainty as to where exactly the upper jet axis
will develop, with the ECMWF a bit further north than the GFS and SREF
mean, with the GFS Ensemble mean and GEM somewhere in between. The
exact location of the right entrance region of said jet will be key
to snow potential for Wednesday, with a fairly intense band of snow
expected to develop where the jet circulation combines with an area
of low level frontogenesis. Right now, it`s not clear whether this
will happen across our CWA (south of I-44 would be most prone) or
whether the band will remain south of the entire forecast area.
Have hedged a bit toward a more southerly solution, given the
tendency of model guidance to underestimate the speed and magnitude
of strong cold air advection, and thus placing the low level
baroclinic zone too far north. The more northerly solution
certainly can`t be discounted, however, and this bears close
watching over the next couple of days.
After a chilly few days to end the workweek, extended guidance
continues to suggest a bit of a pattern change going into next
weekend, with the eastern trough retreating a bit, allowing
ridging to advance east into the High Plains. This would imply a
warming trend for the region, with highs returning to, or perhaps
evening surpassing climatological averages by early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1152 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
IFR should linger at least into the mid to late afternoon at JLN,
and into the evening hours at SGF. Some improvement to MVFR is
then possible for these terminals, but confidence in this
occurring, as well as exact timing, is low. For BBG, suspect they
will remain in IFR through most of the night tonight.
Winds will remain light at all sites for the next 24 hours, with
light north winds becoming easterly, and eventually southeasterly,
by tomorrow.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Boxell

000
FXUS63 KSGF 011756
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1156 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2015
...18Z Aviation Update...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1032 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
While the widespread organized precipitation ended across the region
last night, we continue to see waves of showery/drizzley
precipitation. The last shot of this precipitation is now
overspreading areas along and north of the I-44 corridor. This is
in response to a frontogenetic zone (850-700 mb layer), weak
instability, and a favorable upper level jet position. Reports
back across southeastern KS indicate that this precipitation is
falling as light sleet, light freezing rain, and light snow.
Expectations into this afternoon are for this showery
precipitation to continue generally north of I-44. A dusting to a
half inch of snow (and perhaps some sleet) will be
possible...especially up towards Highway 54. Little to no ice
accretion is expected given the high sun angle and temperatures
only marginally below freezing.
With all of that being said, we have made changes to headlines.
The Winter Storm Warning has been downgraded to a Winter Weather
Advisory. The Winter Weather Advisory has been extended until 3 PM
along and north of the I-44 corridor but will be allowed to expire
at noon south of the interstate.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
Wintry weather continues to impact the area early this morning.
An area of snow is pushing east across central Missouri, as
freezing rain is spreading northeast across south central
Missouri.
The snow across central Missouri is on the light side but an
additional dusting to around one half inch will be possible
through sunrise this morning as it starts to push east of the
area.
The freezing rain will also continue to spread northeast across
south central Missouri through sunrise and then start to push
east of the area by the mid morning hours. As an upper level low
digs across southern California early this morning a southwest
flow aloft upper level pattern is developing. This has allowed a
warm nose to nudge into southern MO early this morning.
Temperatures at the surface remain in the upper 20s, so freezing
rain is occurring. The radar returns with this freezing rain are
looking convective in nature and is resulting in pockets of
moderate freezing rain. There could also be a brief period of
sleet within this activity given its convective nature. This area
of freezing rain is slowly shifting east and will be out of the
area by mid morning, and total ice accumulations will be a few
hundredths of an inch to near two tenths of an inch of ice across
portions of south central Missouri with heaviest occurring through
sunrise.
Elsewhere across the area the heavier precipitation has ended for
the most part, however freezing drizzle has developed across much
of the area and at least patchy freezing drizzle will continue to
occur through much of the morning before temperatures start to
warm above freezing and the drizzle tapers off.
A narrow band of snow is also expected to develop near sunrise
across eastern Kansas and track east this morning into early this
afternoon as mid level lift increases. The Band will develop near
the I-70 corridor just north of the area, but it could develop
far enough south to clip the northern portions of the forecast
area later this morning. Have left pops higher for areas roughly
along and north of U.S. Highway 54 to account for this band. This band
will be fairly narrow in nature and have included a dusting to around
one half of an inch of snowfall amount along and north of Hwy 54
to account for the southern edge of the band clipping these areas. With
this band expected to be narrow in nature amounts will drop off
sharply outside the band. If the band does setup farther south
amounts may need to be increased along the Highway 54 corridor,
but at this time its more likely to just clip these areas with it
staying more to the north.
This afternoon surface temperatures will slowly warm into the
middle 30s and any precipitation remaining will transition to rain or
a snow rain mix up north. The precipitation should also end fairly
quickly from west to east this afternoon with dry conditions
expected this evening and tonight. Lows will drop into the 20s
tonight.
Will keep the Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisories
going as is at this point given the on going and wintry weather,
and the freezing drizzle and banded snow potential through this
morning.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 400 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
Monday will remain dry as high pressure settles over the region.
Southerly wind will return but a big warm up will not occur on
Monday as highs warm into the middle 30s to around the 40 degree
mark.
The upper level low currently over southern California will kick
off to the northeast Monday night and race towards the region by
Tuesday, as another upper level low digs south across the west
coast. Surface low pressure will develop and push into the central
Plains Monday night and will lift a warm front through the region.
Scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will be possible as
the front lifts north, but instability is looking more limited as
it did a few days ago.
The surface low will then track into northern Missouri on Tuesday
then off to the east. A strong cold front will sweep through the
region later in the day Tuesday and a much colder air mass will
race into the area. Showers are expected to develop along and
ahead of the front and if enough instability can develop maybe a
few thunderstorms but again instability is going to be more
limited. Highs on Tuesday will warm into the 50s ahead of the cold
front.
Behind the front much colder temperatures will spread into the
area. As the upper level trough tracks through the region some
light snow will be possible behind the front will minor
accumulation possible. At this time the post frontal precipitation
should not be long in duration and will limit amounts. Highs on
Wednesday will only warm into the upper 20s to around 30 as highs
on Thursday warm into the lower to middle 30s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1152 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
IFR should linger at least into the mid to late afternoon at JLN,
and into the evening hours at SGF. Some improvement to MVFR is
then possible for these terminals, but confidence in this
occurring, as well as exact timing, is low. For BBG, suspect they
will remain in IFR through most of the night tonight.
Winds will remain light at all sites for the next 24 hours, with
light north winds becoming easterly, and eventually southeasterly,
by tomorrow.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR MOZ082-083-
090>098-101>106.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 3 PM CST this afternoon FOR
MOZ055>058-066>071-077>081-088-089.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 3 PM CST this afternoon FOR KSZ073-
097-101.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Boxell

000
FXUS63 KSGF 011756
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1156 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2015
...18Z Aviation Update...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1032 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
While the widespread organized precipitation ended across the region
last night, we continue to see waves of showery/drizzley
precipitation. The last shot of this precipitation is now
overspreading areas along and north of the I-44 corridor. This is
in response to a frontogenetic zone (850-700 mb layer), weak
instability, and a favorable upper level jet position. Reports
back across southeastern KS indicate that this precipitation is
falling as light sleet, light freezing rain, and light snow.
Expectations into this afternoon are for this showery
precipitation to continue generally north of I-44. A dusting to a
half inch of snow (and perhaps some sleet) will be
possible...especially up towards Highway 54. Little to no ice
accretion is expected given the high sun angle and temperatures
only marginally below freezing.
With all of that being said, we have made changes to headlines.
The Winter Storm Warning has been downgraded to a Winter Weather
Advisory. The Winter Weather Advisory has been extended until 3 PM
along and north of the I-44 corridor but will be allowed to expire
at noon south of the interstate.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
Wintry weather continues to impact the area early this morning.
An area of snow is pushing east across central Missouri, as
freezing rain is spreading northeast across south central
Missouri.
The snow across central Missouri is on the light side but an
additional dusting to around one half inch will be possible
through sunrise this morning as it starts to push east of the
area.
The freezing rain will also continue to spread northeast across
south central Missouri through sunrise and then start to push
east of the area by the mid morning hours. As an upper level low
digs across southern California early this morning a southwest
flow aloft upper level pattern is developing. This has allowed a
warm nose to nudge into southern MO early this morning.
Temperatures at the surface remain in the upper 20s, so freezing
rain is occurring. The radar returns with this freezing rain are
looking convective in nature and is resulting in pockets of
moderate freezing rain. There could also be a brief period of
sleet within this activity given its convective nature. This area
of freezing rain is slowly shifting east and will be out of the
area by mid morning, and total ice accumulations will be a few
hundredths of an inch to near two tenths of an inch of ice across
portions of south central Missouri with heaviest occurring through
sunrise.
Elsewhere across the area the heavier precipitation has ended for
the most part, however freezing drizzle has developed across much
of the area and at least patchy freezing drizzle will continue to
occur through much of the morning before temperatures start to
warm above freezing and the drizzle tapers off.
A narrow band of snow is also expected to develop near sunrise
across eastern Kansas and track east this morning into early this
afternoon as mid level lift increases. The Band will develop near
the I-70 corridor just north of the area, but it could develop
far enough south to clip the northern portions of the forecast
area later this morning. Have left pops higher for areas roughly
along and north of U.S. Highway 54 to account for this band. This band
will be fairly narrow in nature and have included a dusting to around
one half of an inch of snowfall amount along and north of Hwy 54
to account for the southern edge of the band clipping these areas. With
this band expected to be narrow in nature amounts will drop off
sharply outside the band. If the band does setup farther south
amounts may need to be increased along the Highway 54 corridor,
but at this time its more likely to just clip these areas with it
staying more to the north.
This afternoon surface temperatures will slowly warm into the
middle 30s and any precipitation remaining will transition to rain or
a snow rain mix up north. The precipitation should also end fairly
quickly from west to east this afternoon with dry conditions
expected this evening and tonight. Lows will drop into the 20s
tonight.
Will keep the Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisories
going as is at this point given the on going and wintry weather,
and the freezing drizzle and banded snow potential through this
morning.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 400 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
Monday will remain dry as high pressure settles over the region.
Southerly wind will return but a big warm up will not occur on
Monday as highs warm into the middle 30s to around the 40 degree
mark.
The upper level low currently over southern California will kick
off to the northeast Monday night and race towards the region by
Tuesday, as another upper level low digs south across the west
coast. Surface low pressure will develop and push into the central
Plains Monday night and will lift a warm front through the region.
Scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will be possible as
the front lifts north, but instability is looking more limited as
it did a few days ago.
The surface low will then track into northern Missouri on Tuesday
then off to the east. A strong cold front will sweep through the
region later in the day Tuesday and a much colder air mass will
race into the area. Showers are expected to develop along and
ahead of the front and if enough instability can develop maybe a
few thunderstorms but again instability is going to be more
limited. Highs on Tuesday will warm into the 50s ahead of the cold
front.
Behind the front much colder temperatures will spread into the
area. As the upper level trough tracks through the region some
light snow will be possible behind the front will minor
accumulation possible. At this time the post frontal precipitation
should not be long in duration and will limit amounts. Highs on
Wednesday will only warm into the upper 20s to around 30 as highs
on Thursday warm into the lower to middle 30s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1152 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
IFR should linger at least into the mid to late afternoon at JLN,
and into the evening hours at SGF. Some improvement to MVFR is
then possible for these terminals, but confidence in this
occurring, as well as exact timing, is low. For BBG, suspect they
will remain in IFR through most of the night tonight.
Winds will remain light at all sites for the next 24 hours, with
light north winds becoming easterly, and eventually southeasterly,
by tomorrow.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR MOZ082-083-
090>098-101>106.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 3 PM CST this afternoon FOR
MOZ055>058-066>071-077>081-088-089.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 3 PM CST this afternoon FOR KSZ073-
097-101.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Boxell

000
FXUS63 KSGF 011756
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1156 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2015
...18Z Aviation Update...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1032 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
While the widespread organized precipitation ended across the region
last night, we continue to see waves of showery/drizzley
precipitation. The last shot of this precipitation is now
overspreading areas along and north of the I-44 corridor. This is
in response to a frontogenetic zone (850-700 mb layer), weak
instability, and a favorable upper level jet position. Reports
back across southeastern KS indicate that this precipitation is
falling as light sleet, light freezing rain, and light snow.
Expectations into this afternoon are for this showery
precipitation to continue generally north of I-44. A dusting to a
half inch of snow (and perhaps some sleet) will be
possible...especially up towards Highway 54. Little to no ice
accretion is expected given the high sun angle and temperatures
only marginally below freezing.
With all of that being said, we have made changes to headlines.
The Winter Storm Warning has been downgraded to a Winter Weather
Advisory. The Winter Weather Advisory has been extended until 3 PM
along and north of the I-44 corridor but will be allowed to expire
at noon south of the interstate.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
Wintry weather continues to impact the area early this morning.
An area of snow is pushing east across central Missouri, as
freezing rain is spreading northeast across south central
Missouri.
The snow across central Missouri is on the light side but an
additional dusting to around one half inch will be possible
through sunrise this morning as it starts to push east of the
area.
The freezing rain will also continue to spread northeast across
south central Missouri through sunrise and then start to push
east of the area by the mid morning hours. As an upper level low
digs across southern California early this morning a southwest
flow aloft upper level pattern is developing. This has allowed a
warm nose to nudge into southern MO early this morning.
Temperatures at the surface remain in the upper 20s, so freezing
rain is occurring. The radar returns with this freezing rain are
looking convective in nature and is resulting in pockets of
moderate freezing rain. There could also be a brief period of
sleet within this activity given its convective nature. This area
of freezing rain is slowly shifting east and will be out of the
area by mid morning, and total ice accumulations will be a few
hundredths of an inch to near two tenths of an inch of ice across
portions of south central Missouri with heaviest occurring through
sunrise.
Elsewhere across the area the heavier precipitation has ended for
the most part, however freezing drizzle has developed across much
of the area and at least patchy freezing drizzle will continue to
occur through much of the morning before temperatures start to
warm above freezing and the drizzle tapers off.
A narrow band of snow is also expected to develop near sunrise
across eastern Kansas and track east this morning into early this
afternoon as mid level lift increases. The Band will develop near
the I-70 corridor just north of the area, but it could develop
far enough south to clip the northern portions of the forecast
area later this morning. Have left pops higher for areas roughly
along and north of U.S. Highway 54 to account for this band. This band
will be fairly narrow in nature and have included a dusting to around
one half of an inch of snowfall amount along and north of Hwy 54
to account for the southern edge of the band clipping these areas. With
this band expected to be narrow in nature amounts will drop off
sharply outside the band. If the band does setup farther south
amounts may need to be increased along the Highway 54 corridor,
but at this time its more likely to just clip these areas with it
staying more to the north.
This afternoon surface temperatures will slowly warm into the
middle 30s and any precipitation remaining will transition to rain or
a snow rain mix up north. The precipitation should also end fairly
quickly from west to east this afternoon with dry conditions
expected this evening and tonight. Lows will drop into the 20s
tonight.
Will keep the Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisories
going as is at this point given the on going and wintry weather,
and the freezing drizzle and banded snow potential through this
morning.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 400 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
Monday will remain dry as high pressure settles over the region.
Southerly wind will return but a big warm up will not occur on
Monday as highs warm into the middle 30s to around the 40 degree
mark.
The upper level low currently over southern California will kick
off to the northeast Monday night and race towards the region by
Tuesday, as another upper level low digs south across the west
coast. Surface low pressure will develop and push into the central
Plains Monday night and will lift a warm front through the region.
Scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will be possible as
the front lifts north, but instability is looking more limited as
it did a few days ago.
The surface low will then track into northern Missouri on Tuesday
then off to the east. A strong cold front will sweep through the
region later in the day Tuesday and a much colder air mass will
race into the area. Showers are expected to develop along and
ahead of the front and if enough instability can develop maybe a
few thunderstorms but again instability is going to be more
limited. Highs on Tuesday will warm into the 50s ahead of the cold
front.
Behind the front much colder temperatures will spread into the
area. As the upper level trough tracks through the region some
light snow will be possible behind the front will minor
accumulation possible. At this time the post frontal precipitation
should not be long in duration and will limit amounts. Highs on
Wednesday will only warm into the upper 20s to around 30 as highs
on Thursday warm into the lower to middle 30s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1152 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
IFR should linger at least into the mid to late afternoon at JLN,
and into the evening hours at SGF. Some improvement to MVFR is
then possible for these terminals, but confidence in this
occurring, as well as exact timing, is low. For BBG, suspect they
will remain in IFR through most of the night tonight.
Winds will remain light at all sites for the next 24 hours, with
light north winds becoming easterly, and eventually southeasterly,
by tomorrow.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR MOZ082-083-
090>098-101>106.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 3 PM CST this afternoon FOR
MOZ055>058-066>071-077>081-088-089.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 3 PM CST this afternoon FOR KSZ073-
097-101.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Boxell

000
FXUS63 KSGF 011651
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1051 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2015
...Changes to Winter Weather Headlines...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1032 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
While the widespread organized precipitation ended across the region
last night, we continue to see waves of showery/drizzley
precipitation. The last shot of this precipitation is now
overspreading areas along and north of the I-44 corridor. This is
in response to a frontogenetic zone (850-700 mb layer), weak
instability, and a favorable upper level jet position. Reports
back across southeastern KS indicate that this precipitation is
falling as light sleet, light freezing rain, and light snow.
Expectations into this afternoon are for this showery
precipitation to continue generally north of I-44. A dusting to a
half inch of snow (and perhaps some sleet) will be
possible...especially up towards Highway 54. Little to no ice
accretion is expected given the high sun angle and temperatures
only marginally below freezing.
With all of that being said, we have made changes to headlines.
The Winter Storm Warning has been downgraded to a Winter Weather
Advisory. The Winter Weather Advisory has been extended until 3 PM
along and north of the I-44 corridor but will be allowed to expire
at noon south of the interstate.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
Wintry weather continues to impact the area early this morning.
An area of snow is pushing east across central Missouri, as
freezing rain is spreading northeast across south central
Missouri.
The snow across central Missouri is on the light side but an
additional dusting to around one half inch will be possible
through sunrise this morning as it starts to push east of the
area.
The freezing rain will also continue to spread northeast across
south central Missouri through sunrise and then start to push
east of the area by the mid morning hours. As an upper level low
digs across southern California early this morning a southwest
flow aloft upper level pattern is developing. This has allowed a
warm nose to nudge into southern MO early this morning.
Temperatures at the surface remain in the upper 20s, so freezing
rain is occurring. The radar returns with this freezing rain are
looking convective in nature and is resulting in pockets of
moderate freezing rain. There could also be a brief period of
sleet within this activity given its convective nature. This area
of freezing rain is slowly shifting east and will be out of the
area by mid morning, and total ice accumulations will be a few
hundredths of an inch to near two tenths of an inch of ice across
portions of south central Missouri with heaviest occurring through
sunrise.
Elsewhere across the area the heavier precipitation has ended for
the most part, however freezing drizzle has developed across much
of the area and at least patchy freezing drizzle will continue to
occur through much of the morning before temperatures start to
warm above freezing and the drizzle tapers off.
A narrow band of snow is also expected to develop near sunrise
across eastern Kansas and track east this morning into early this
afternoon as mid level lift increases. The Band will develop near
the I-70 corridor just north of the area, but it could develop
far enough south to clip the northern portions of the forecast
area later this morning. Have left pops higher for areas roughly
along and north of U.S. Highway 54 to account for this band. This band
will be fairly narrow in nature and have included a dusting to around
one half of an inch of snowfall amount along and north of Hwy 54
to account for the southern edge of the band clipping these areas. With
this band expected to be narrow in nature amounts will drop off
sharply outside the band. If the band does setup farther south
amounts may need to be increased along the Highway 54 corridor,
but at this time its more likely to just clip these areas with it
staying more to the north.
This afternoon surface temperatures will slowly warm into the
middle 30s and any precipitation remaining will transition to rain or
a snow rain mix up north. The precipitation should also end fairly
quickly from west to east this afternoon with dry conditions
expected this evening and tonight. Lows will drop into the 20s
tonight.
Will keep the Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisories
going as is at this point given the on going and wintry weather,
and the freezing drizzle and banded snow potential through this
morning.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 400 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
Monday will remain dry as high pressure settles over the region.
Southerly wind will return but a big warm up will not occur on
Monday as highs warm into the middle 30s to around the 40 degree
mark.
The upper level low currently over southern California will kick
off to the northeast Monday night and race towards the region by
Tuesday, as another upper level low digs south across the west
coast. Surface low pressure will develop and push into the central
Plains Monday night and will lift a warm front through the region.
Scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will be possible as
the front lifts north, but instability is looking more limited as
it did a few days ago.
The surface low will then track into northern Missouri on Tuesday
then off to the east. A strong cold front will sweep through the
region later in the day Tuesday and a much colder air mass will
race into the area. Showers are expected to develop along and
ahead of the front and if enough instability can develop maybe a
few thunderstorms but again instability is going to be more
limited. Highs on Tuesday will warm into the 50s ahead of the cold
front.
Behind the front much colder temperatures will spread into the
area. As the upper level trough tracks through the region some
light snow will be possible behind the front will minor
accumulation possible. At this time the post frontal precipitation
should not be long in duration and will limit amounts. Highs on
Wednesday will only warm into the upper 20s to around 30 as highs
on Thursday warm into the lower to middle 30s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 459 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
IFR/LIFR conditions will continue this morning across the area.
Main area of precipitation has exited the area, but freezing
drizzle will persist through the morning with the low
ceilings/fog. Ceilings should improve into MVFR conditions during
the afternoon and should see precipitation come to an end.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR MOZ082-083-
090>098-101>106.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 3 PM CST this afternoon FOR
MOZ055>058-066>071-077>081-088-089.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 3 PM CST this afternoon FOR KSZ073-
097-101.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Lindenberg

000
FXUS63 KSGF 011651
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1051 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2015
...Changes to Winter Weather Headlines...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1032 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
While the widespread organized precipitation ended across the region
last night, we continue to see waves of showery/drizzley
precipitation. The last shot of this precipitation is now
overspreading areas along and north of the I-44 corridor. This is
in response to a frontogenetic zone (850-700 mb layer), weak
instability, and a favorable upper level jet position. Reports
back across southeastern KS indicate that this precipitation is
falling as light sleet, light freezing rain, and light snow.
Expectations into this afternoon are for this showery
precipitation to continue generally north of I-44. A dusting to a
half inch of snow (and perhaps some sleet) will be
possible...especially up towards Highway 54. Little to no ice
accretion is expected given the high sun angle and temperatures
only marginally below freezing.
With all of that being said, we have made changes to headlines.
The Winter Storm Warning has been downgraded to a Winter Weather
Advisory. The Winter Weather Advisory has been extended until 3 PM
along and north of the I-44 corridor but will be allowed to expire
at noon south of the interstate.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
Wintry weather continues to impact the area early this morning.
An area of snow is pushing east across central Missouri, as
freezing rain is spreading northeast across south central
Missouri.
The snow across central Missouri is on the light side but an
additional dusting to around one half inch will be possible
through sunrise this morning as it starts to push east of the
area.
The freezing rain will also continue to spread northeast across
south central Missouri through sunrise and then start to push
east of the area by the mid morning hours. As an upper level low
digs across southern California early this morning a southwest
flow aloft upper level pattern is developing. This has allowed a
warm nose to nudge into southern MO early this morning.
Temperatures at the surface remain in the upper 20s, so freezing
rain is occurring. The radar returns with this freezing rain are
looking convective in nature and is resulting in pockets of
moderate freezing rain. There could also be a brief period of
sleet within this activity given its convective nature. This area
of freezing rain is slowly shifting east and will be out of the
area by mid morning, and total ice accumulations will be a few
hundredths of an inch to near two tenths of an inch of ice across
portions of south central Missouri with heaviest occurring through
sunrise.
Elsewhere across the area the heavier precipitation has ended for
the most part, however freezing drizzle has developed across much
of the area and at least patchy freezing drizzle will continue to
occur through much of the morning before temperatures start to
warm above freezing and the drizzle tapers off.
A narrow band of snow is also expected to develop near sunrise
across eastern Kansas and track east this morning into early this
afternoon as mid level lift increases. The Band will develop near
the I-70 corridor just north of the area, but it could develop
far enough south to clip the northern portions of the forecast
area later this morning. Have left pops higher for areas roughly
along and north of U.S. Highway 54 to account for this band. This band
will be fairly narrow in nature and have included a dusting to around
one half of an inch of snowfall amount along and north of Hwy 54
to account for the southern edge of the band clipping these areas. With
this band expected to be narrow in nature amounts will drop off
sharply outside the band. If the band does setup farther south
amounts may need to be increased along the Highway 54 corridor,
but at this time its more likely to just clip these areas with it
staying more to the north.
This afternoon surface temperatures will slowly warm into the
middle 30s and any precipitation remaining will transition to rain or
a snow rain mix up north. The precipitation should also end fairly
quickly from west to east this afternoon with dry conditions
expected this evening and tonight. Lows will drop into the 20s
tonight.
Will keep the Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisories
going as is at this point given the on going and wintry weather,
and the freezing drizzle and banded snow potential through this
morning.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 400 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
Monday will remain dry as high pressure settles over the region.
Southerly wind will return but a big warm up will not occur on
Monday as highs warm into the middle 30s to around the 40 degree
mark.
The upper level low currently over southern California will kick
off to the northeast Monday night and race towards the region by
Tuesday, as another upper level low digs south across the west
coast. Surface low pressure will develop and push into the central
Plains Monday night and will lift a warm front through the region.
Scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will be possible as
the front lifts north, but instability is looking more limited as
it did a few days ago.
The surface low will then track into northern Missouri on Tuesday
then off to the east. A strong cold front will sweep through the
region later in the day Tuesday and a much colder air mass will
race into the area. Showers are expected to develop along and
ahead of the front and if enough instability can develop maybe a
few thunderstorms but again instability is going to be more
limited. Highs on Tuesday will warm into the 50s ahead of the cold
front.
Behind the front much colder temperatures will spread into the
area. As the upper level trough tracks through the region some
light snow will be possible behind the front will minor
accumulation possible. At this time the post frontal precipitation
should not be long in duration and will limit amounts. Highs on
Wednesday will only warm into the upper 20s to around 30 as highs
on Thursday warm into the lower to middle 30s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 459 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
IFR/LIFR conditions will continue this morning across the area.
Main area of precipitation has exited the area, but freezing
drizzle will persist through the morning with the low
ceilings/fog. Ceilings should improve into MVFR conditions during
the afternoon and should see precipitation come to an end.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR MOZ082-083-
090>098-101>106.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 3 PM CST this afternoon FOR
MOZ055>058-066>071-077>081-088-089.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 3 PM CST this afternoon FOR KSZ073-
097-101.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Lindenberg

000
FXUS63 KSGF 011651
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1051 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2015
...Changes to Winter Weather Headlines...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1032 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
While the widespread organized precipitation ended across the region
last night, we continue to see waves of showery/drizzley
precipitation. The last shot of this precipitation is now
overspreading areas along and north of the I-44 corridor. This is
in response to a frontogenetic zone (850-700 mb layer), weak
instability, and a favorable upper level jet position. Reports
back across southeastern KS indicate that this precipitation is
falling as light sleet, light freezing rain, and light snow.
Expectations into this afternoon are for this showery
precipitation to continue generally north of I-44. A dusting to a
half inch of snow (and perhaps some sleet) will be
possible...especially up towards Highway 54. Little to no ice
accretion is expected given the high sun angle and temperatures
only marginally below freezing.
With all of that being said, we have made changes to headlines.
The Winter Storm Warning has been downgraded to a Winter Weather
Advisory. The Winter Weather Advisory has been extended until 3 PM
along and north of the I-44 corridor but will be allowed to expire
at noon south of the interstate.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
Wintry weather continues to impact the area early this morning.
An area of snow is pushing east across central Missouri, as
freezing rain is spreading northeast across south central
Missouri.
The snow across central Missouri is on the light side but an
additional dusting to around one half inch will be possible
through sunrise this morning as it starts to push east of the
area.
The freezing rain will also continue to spread northeast across
south central Missouri through sunrise and then start to push
east of the area by the mid morning hours. As an upper level low
digs across southern California early this morning a southwest
flow aloft upper level pattern is developing. This has allowed a
warm nose to nudge into southern MO early this morning.
Temperatures at the surface remain in the upper 20s, so freezing
rain is occurring. The radar returns with this freezing rain are
looking convective in nature and is resulting in pockets of
moderate freezing rain. There could also be a brief period of
sleet within this activity given its convective nature. This area
of freezing rain is slowly shifting east and will be out of the
area by mid morning, and total ice accumulations will be a few
hundredths of an inch to near two tenths of an inch of ice across
portions of south central Missouri with heaviest occurring through
sunrise.
Elsewhere across the area the heavier precipitation has ended for
the most part, however freezing drizzle has developed across much
of the area and at least patchy freezing drizzle will continue to
occur through much of the morning before temperatures start to
warm above freezing and the drizzle tapers off.
A narrow band of snow is also expected to develop near sunrise
across eastern Kansas and track east this morning into early this
afternoon as mid level lift increases. The Band will develop near
the I-70 corridor just north of the area, but it could develop
far enough south to clip the northern portions of the forecast
area later this morning. Have left pops higher for areas roughly
along and north of U.S. Highway 54 to account for this band. This band
will be fairly narrow in nature and have included a dusting to around
one half of an inch of snowfall amount along and north of Hwy 54
to account for the southern edge of the band clipping these areas. With
this band expected to be narrow in nature amounts will drop off
sharply outside the band. If the band does setup farther south
amounts may need to be increased along the Highway 54 corridor,
but at this time its more likely to just clip these areas with it
staying more to the north.
This afternoon surface temperatures will slowly warm into the
middle 30s and any precipitation remaining will transition to rain or
a snow rain mix up north. The precipitation should also end fairly
quickly from west to east this afternoon with dry conditions
expected this evening and tonight. Lows will drop into the 20s
tonight.
Will keep the Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisories
going as is at this point given the on going and wintry weather,
and the freezing drizzle and banded snow potential through this
morning.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 400 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
Monday will remain dry as high pressure settles over the region.
Southerly wind will return but a big warm up will not occur on
Monday as highs warm into the middle 30s to around the 40 degree
mark.
The upper level low currently over southern California will kick
off to the northeast Monday night and race towards the region by
Tuesday, as another upper level low digs south across the west
coast. Surface low pressure will develop and push into the central
Plains Monday night and will lift a warm front through the region.
Scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will be possible as
the front lifts north, but instability is looking more limited as
it did a few days ago.
The surface low will then track into northern Missouri on Tuesday
then off to the east. A strong cold front will sweep through the
region later in the day Tuesday and a much colder air mass will
race into the area. Showers are expected to develop along and
ahead of the front and if enough instability can develop maybe a
few thunderstorms but again instability is going to be more
limited. Highs on Tuesday will warm into the 50s ahead of the cold
front.
Behind the front much colder temperatures will spread into the
area. As the upper level trough tracks through the region some
light snow will be possible behind the front will minor
accumulation possible. At this time the post frontal precipitation
should not be long in duration and will limit amounts. Highs on
Wednesday will only warm into the upper 20s to around 30 as highs
on Thursday warm into the lower to middle 30s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 459 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
IFR/LIFR conditions will continue this morning across the area.
Main area of precipitation has exited the area, but freezing
drizzle will persist through the morning with the low
ceilings/fog. Ceilings should improve into MVFR conditions during
the afternoon and should see precipitation come to an end.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR MOZ082-083-
090>098-101>106.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 3 PM CST this afternoon FOR
MOZ055>058-066>071-077>081-088-089.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 3 PM CST this afternoon FOR KSZ073-
097-101.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Lindenberg

000
FXUS63 KSGF 011651
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1051 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2015
...Changes to Winter Weather Headlines...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1032 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
While the widespread organized precipitation ended across the region
last night, we continue to see waves of showery/drizzley
precipitation. The last shot of this precipitation is now
overspreading areas along and north of the I-44 corridor. This is
in response to a frontogenetic zone (850-700 mb layer), weak
instability, and a favorable upper level jet position. Reports
back across southeastern KS indicate that this precipitation is
falling as light sleet, light freezing rain, and light snow.
Expectations into this afternoon are for this showery
precipitation to continue generally north of I-44. A dusting to a
half inch of snow (and perhaps some sleet) will be
possible...especially up towards Highway 54. Little to no ice
accretion is expected given the high sun angle and temperatures
only marginally below freezing.
With all of that being said, we have made changes to headlines.
The Winter Storm Warning has been downgraded to a Winter Weather
Advisory. The Winter Weather Advisory has been extended until 3 PM
along and north of the I-44 corridor but will be allowed to expire
at noon south of the interstate.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
Wintry weather continues to impact the area early this morning.
An area of snow is pushing east across central Missouri, as
freezing rain is spreading northeast across south central
Missouri.
The snow across central Missouri is on the light side but an
additional dusting to around one half inch will be possible
through sunrise this morning as it starts to push east of the
area.
The freezing rain will also continue to spread northeast across
south central Missouri through sunrise and then start to push
east of the area by the mid morning hours. As an upper level low
digs across southern California early this morning a southwest
flow aloft upper level pattern is developing. This has allowed a
warm nose to nudge into southern MO early this morning.
Temperatures at the surface remain in the upper 20s, so freezing
rain is occurring. The radar returns with this freezing rain are
looking convective in nature and is resulting in pockets of
moderate freezing rain. There could also be a brief period of
sleet within this activity given its convective nature. This area
of freezing rain is slowly shifting east and will be out of the
area by mid morning, and total ice accumulations will be a few
hundredths of an inch to near two tenths of an inch of ice across
portions of south central Missouri with heaviest occurring through
sunrise.
Elsewhere across the area the heavier precipitation has ended for
the most part, however freezing drizzle has developed across much
of the area and at least patchy freezing drizzle will continue to
occur through much of the morning before temperatures start to
warm above freezing and the drizzle tapers off.
A narrow band of snow is also expected to develop near sunrise
across eastern Kansas and track east this morning into early this
afternoon as mid level lift increases. The Band will develop near
the I-70 corridor just north of the area, but it could develop
far enough south to clip the northern portions of the forecast
area later this morning. Have left pops higher for areas roughly
along and north of U.S. Highway 54 to account for this band. This band
will be fairly narrow in nature and have included a dusting to around
one half of an inch of snowfall amount along and north of Hwy 54
to account for the southern edge of the band clipping these areas. With
this band expected to be narrow in nature amounts will drop off
sharply outside the band. If the band does setup farther south
amounts may need to be increased along the Highway 54 corridor,
but at this time its more likely to just clip these areas with it
staying more to the north.
This afternoon surface temperatures will slowly warm into the
middle 30s and any precipitation remaining will transition to rain or
a snow rain mix up north. The precipitation should also end fairly
quickly from west to east this afternoon with dry conditions
expected this evening and tonight. Lows will drop into the 20s
tonight.
Will keep the Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisories
going as is at this point given the on going and wintry weather,
and the freezing drizzle and banded snow potential through this
morning.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 400 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
Monday will remain dry as high pressure settles over the region.
Southerly wind will return but a big warm up will not occur on
Monday as highs warm into the middle 30s to around the 40 degree
mark.
The upper level low currently over southern California will kick
off to the northeast Monday night and race towards the region by
Tuesday, as another upper level low digs south across the west
coast. Surface low pressure will develop and push into the central
Plains Monday night and will lift a warm front through the region.
Scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will be possible as
the front lifts north, but instability is looking more limited as
it did a few days ago.
The surface low will then track into northern Missouri on Tuesday
then off to the east. A strong cold front will sweep through the
region later in the day Tuesday and a much colder air mass will
race into the area. Showers are expected to develop along and
ahead of the front and if enough instability can develop maybe a
few thunderstorms but again instability is going to be more
limited. Highs on Tuesday will warm into the 50s ahead of the cold
front.
Behind the front much colder temperatures will spread into the
area. As the upper level trough tracks through the region some
light snow will be possible behind the front will minor
accumulation possible. At this time the post frontal precipitation
should not be long in duration and will limit amounts. Highs on
Wednesday will only warm into the upper 20s to around 30 as highs
on Thursday warm into the lower to middle 30s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 459 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
IFR/LIFR conditions will continue this morning across the area.
Main area of precipitation has exited the area, but freezing
drizzle will persist through the morning with the low
ceilings/fog. Ceilings should improve into MVFR conditions during
the afternoon and should see precipitation come to an end.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR MOZ082-083-
090>098-101>106.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 3 PM CST this afternoon FOR
MOZ055>058-066>071-077>081-088-089.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 3 PM CST this afternoon FOR KSZ073-
097-101.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Schaumann
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Lindenberg

000
FXUS63 KSGF 011102
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
502 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
Wintry weather continues to impact the area early this morning.
An area of snow is pushing east across central Missouri, as
freezing rain is spreading northeast across south central
Missouri.
The snow across central Missouri is on the light side but an
additional dusting to around one half inch will be possible
through sunrise this morning as it starts to push east of the
area.
The freezing rain will also continue to spread northeast across
south central Missouri through sunrise and then start to push
east of the area by the mid morning hours. As an upper level low
digs across southern California early this morning a southwest
flow aloft upper level pattern is developing. This has allowed a
warm nose to nudge into southern MO early this morning.
Temperatures at the surface remain in the upper 20s, so freezing
rain is occurring. The radar returns with this freezing rain are
looking convective in nature and is resulting in pockets of
moderate freezing rain. There could also be a brief period of
sleet within this activity given its convective nature. This area
of freezing rain is slowly shifting east and will be out of the
area by mid morning, and total ice accumulations will be a few
hundredths of an inch to near two tenths of an inch of ice across
portions of south central Missouri with heaviest occurring through
sunrise.
Elsewhere across the area the heavier precipitation has ended for
the most part, however freezing drizzle has developed across much
of the area and at least patchy freezing drizzle will continue to
occur through much of the morning before temperatures start to
warm above freezing and the drizzle tapers off.
A narrow band of snow is also expected to develop near sunrise
across eastern Kansas and track east this morning into early this
afternoon as mid level lift increases. The Band will develop near
the I-70 corridor just north of the area, but it could develop
far enough south to clip the northern portions of the forecast
area later this morning. Have left pops higher for areas roughly
along and north of U.S. Highway 54 to account for this band. This band
will be fairly narrow in nature and have included a dusting to around
one half of an inch of snowfall amount along and north of Hwy 54
to account for the southern edge of the band clipping these areas. With
this band expected to be narrow in nature amounts will drop off
sharply outside the band. If the band does setup farther south
amounts may need to be increased along the Highway 54 corridor,
but at this time its more likely to just clip these areas with it
staying more to the north.
This afternoon surface temperatures will slowly warm into the
middle 30s and any precipitation remaining will transition to rain or
a snow rain mix up north. The precipitation should also end fairly
quickly from west to east this afternoon with dry conditions
expected this evening and tonight. Lows will drop into the 20s
tonight.
Will keep the Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisories
going as is at this point given the on going and wintry weather,
and the freezing drizzle and banded snow potential through this
morning.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 400 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
Monday will remain dry as high pressure settles over the region.
Southerly wind will return but a big warm up will not occur on
Monday as highs warm into the middle 30s to around the 40 degree
mark.
The upper level low currently over southern California will kick
off to the northeast Monday night and race towards the region by
Tuesday, as another upper level low digs south across the west
coast. Surface low pressure will develop and push into the central
Plains Monday night and will lift a warm front through the region.
Scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will be possible as
the front lifts north, but instability is looking more limited as
it did a few days ago.
The surface low will then track into northern Missouri on Tuesday
then off to the east. A strong cold front will sweep through the
region later in the day Tuesday and a much colder air mass will
race into the area. Showers are expected to develop along and
ahead of the front and if enough instability can develop maybe a
few thunderstorms but again instability is going to be more
limited. Highs on Tuesday will warm into the 50s ahead of the cold
front.
Behind the front much colder temperatures will spread into the
area. As the upper level trough tracks through the region some
light snow will be possible behind the front will minor
accumulation possible. At this time the post frontal precipitation
should not be long in duration and will limit amounts. Highs on
Wednesday will only warm into the upper 20s to around 30 as highs
on Thursday warm into the lower to middle 30s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 459 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
IFR/LIFR conditions will continue this morning across the area.
Main area of precipitation has exited the area, but freezing
drizzle will persist through the morning with the low
ceilings/fog. Ceilings should improve into MVFR conditions during
the afternoon and should see precipitation come to an end.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR MOZ055-056-066-
067-077-078-088-089-093>098-101>106.
WINTER STORM WARNING until Noon CST today FOR MOZ057-058-068>071-
079>083-090>092.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Lindenberg

000
FXUS63 KSGF 011102
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
502 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
Wintry weather continues to impact the area early this morning.
An area of snow is pushing east across central Missouri, as
freezing rain is spreading northeast across south central
Missouri.
The snow across central Missouri is on the light side but an
additional dusting to around one half inch will be possible
through sunrise this morning as it starts to push east of the
area.
The freezing rain will also continue to spread northeast across
south central Missouri through sunrise and then start to push
east of the area by the mid morning hours. As an upper level low
digs across southern California early this morning a southwest
flow aloft upper level pattern is developing. This has allowed a
warm nose to nudge into southern MO early this morning.
Temperatures at the surface remain in the upper 20s, so freezing
rain is occurring. The radar returns with this freezing rain are
looking convective in nature and is resulting in pockets of
moderate freezing rain. There could also be a brief period of
sleet within this activity given its convective nature. This area
of freezing rain is slowly shifting east and will be out of the
area by mid morning, and total ice accumulations will be a few
hundredths of an inch to near two tenths of an inch of ice across
portions of south central Missouri with heaviest occurring through
sunrise.
Elsewhere across the area the heavier precipitation has ended for
the most part, however freezing drizzle has developed across much
of the area and at least patchy freezing drizzle will continue to
occur through much of the morning before temperatures start to
warm above freezing and the drizzle tapers off.
A narrow band of snow is also expected to develop near sunrise
across eastern Kansas and track east this morning into early this
afternoon as mid level lift increases. The Band will develop near
the I-70 corridor just north of the area, but it could develop
far enough south to clip the northern portions of the forecast
area later this morning. Have left pops higher for areas roughly
along and north of U.S. Highway 54 to account for this band. This band
will be fairly narrow in nature and have included a dusting to around
one half of an inch of snowfall amount along and north of Hwy 54
to account for the southern edge of the band clipping these areas. With
this band expected to be narrow in nature amounts will drop off
sharply outside the band. If the band does setup farther south
amounts may need to be increased along the Highway 54 corridor,
but at this time its more likely to just clip these areas with it
staying more to the north.
This afternoon surface temperatures will slowly warm into the
middle 30s and any precipitation remaining will transition to rain or
a snow rain mix up north. The precipitation should also end fairly
quickly from west to east this afternoon with dry conditions
expected this evening and tonight. Lows will drop into the 20s
tonight.
Will keep the Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisories
going as is at this point given the on going and wintry weather,
and the freezing drizzle and banded snow potential through this
morning.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 400 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
Monday will remain dry as high pressure settles over the region.
Southerly wind will return but a big warm up will not occur on
Monday as highs warm into the middle 30s to around the 40 degree
mark.
The upper level low currently over southern California will kick
off to the northeast Monday night and race towards the region by
Tuesday, as another upper level low digs south across the west
coast. Surface low pressure will develop and push into the central
Plains Monday night and will lift a warm front through the region.
Scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will be possible as
the front lifts north, but instability is looking more limited as
it did a few days ago.
The surface low will then track into northern Missouri on Tuesday
then off to the east. A strong cold front will sweep through the
region later in the day Tuesday and a much colder air mass will
race into the area. Showers are expected to develop along and
ahead of the front and if enough instability can develop maybe a
few thunderstorms but again instability is going to be more
limited. Highs on Tuesday will warm into the 50s ahead of the cold
front.
Behind the front much colder temperatures will spread into the
area. As the upper level trough tracks through the region some
light snow will be possible behind the front will minor
accumulation possible. At this time the post frontal precipitation
should not be long in duration and will limit amounts. Highs on
Wednesday will only warm into the upper 20s to around 30 as highs
on Thursday warm into the lower to middle 30s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 459 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
IFR/LIFR conditions will continue this morning across the area.
Main area of precipitation has exited the area, but freezing
drizzle will persist through the morning with the low
ceilings/fog. Ceilings should improve into MVFR conditions during
the afternoon and should see precipitation come to an end.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR MOZ055-056-066-
067-077-078-088-089-093>098-101>106.
WINTER STORM WARNING until Noon CST today FOR MOZ057-058-068>071-
079>083-090>092.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Lindenberg

000
FXUS63 KSGF 011008
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
408 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2015
...Wintry Weather Continues This Morning..
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
Wintry weather continues to impact the area early this morning.
An area of snow is pushing east across central Missouri, as
freezing rain is spreading northeast across south central
Missouri.
The snow across central Missouri is on the light side but an
additional dusting to around one half inch will be possible
through sunrise this morning as it starts to push east of the
area.
The freezing rain will also continue to spread northeast across
south central Missouri through sunrise and then start to push
east of the area by the mid morning hours. As an upper level low
digs across southern California early this morning a southwest
flow aloft upper level pattern is developing. This has allowed a
warm nose to nudge into southern MO early this morning.
Temperatures at the surface remain in the upper 20s, so freezing
rain is occurring. The radar returns with this freezing rain are
looking convective in nature and is resulting in pockets of
moderate freezing rain. There could also be a brief period of
sleet within this activity given its convective nature. This area
of freezing rain is slowly shifting east and will be out of the
area by mid morning, and total ice accumulations will be a few
hundredths of an inch to near two tenths of an inch of ice across
portions of south central Missouri with heaviest occurring through
sunrise.
Elsewhere across the area the heavier precipitation has ended for
the most part, however freezing drizzle has developed across much
of the area and at least patchy freezing drizzle will continue to
occur through much of the morning before temperatures start to
warm above freezing and the drizzle tapers off.
A narrow band of snow is also expected to develop near sunrise
across eastern Kansas and track east this morning into early this
afternoon as mid level lift increases. The Band will develop near
the I-70 corridor just north of the area, but it could develop
far enough south to clip the northern portions of the forecast
area later this morning. Have left pops higher for areas roughly
along and north of U.S. Highway 54 to account for this band. This band
will be fairly narrow in nature and have included a dusting to around
one half of an inch of snowfall amount along and north of Hwy 54
to account for the southern edge of the band clipping these areas. With
this band expected to be narrow in nature amounts will drop off
sharply outside the band. If the band does setup farther south
amounts may need to be increased along the Highway 54 corridor,
but at this time its more likely to just clip these areas with it
staying more to the north.
This afternoon surface temperatures will slowly warm into the
middle 30s and any precipitation remaining will transition to rain or
a snow rain mix up north. The precipitation should also end fairly
quickly from west to east this afternoon with dry conditions
expected this evening and tonight. Lows will drop into the 20s
tonight.
Will keep the Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisories
going as is at this point given the on going and wintry weather,
and the freezing drizzle and banded snow potential through this
morning.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 400 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
Monday will remain dry as high pressure settles over the region.
Southerly wind will return but a big warm up will not occur on
Monday as highs warm into the middle 30s to around the 40 degree
mark.
The upper level low currently over southern California will kick
off to the northeast Monday night and race towards the region by
Tuesday, as another upper level low digs south across the west
coast. Surface low pressure will develop and push into the central
Plains Monday night and will lift a warm front through the region.
Scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will be possible as
the front lifts north, but instability is looking more limited as
it did a few days ago.
The surface low will then track into northern Missouri on Tuesday
then off to the east. A strong cold front will sweep through the
region later in the day Tuesday and a much colder air mass will
race into the area. Showers are expected to develop along and
ahead of the front and if enough instability can develop maybe a
few thunderstorms but again instability is going to be more
limited. Highs on Tuesday will warm into the 50s ahead of the cold
front.
Behind the front much colder temperatures will spread into the
area. As the upper level trough tracks through the region some
light snow will be possible behind the front will minor
accumulation possible. At this time the post frontal precipitation
should not be long in duration and will limit amounts. Highs on
Wednesday will only warm into the upper 20s to around 30 as highs
on Thursday warm into the lower to middle 30s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
PILOTS FLYING IN AND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AIRPORTS WILL
BE DEALING WITH IFR CEILINGS AND AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITIES
THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOST OF SUNDAY MORNING.
MOST OF THE HEAVIER SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN HAS SHIFTED INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI. ALL OTHER LOCATIONS WILL BE DEALING WITH
FREEZING DRIZZLE HEADING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
LOOK FOR WINDS TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR MOZ055-056-066-
067-077-078-088-089-093>098-101>106.
WINTER STORM WARNING until Noon CST today FOR MOZ057-058-068>071-
079>083-090>092.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Cramer

000
FXUS63 KSGF 011008
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
408 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2015
...Wintry Weather Continues This Morning..
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
Wintry weather continues to impact the area early this morning.
An area of snow is pushing east across central Missouri, as
freezing rain is spreading northeast across south central
Missouri.
The snow across central Missouri is on the light side but an
additional dusting to around one half inch will be possible
through sunrise this morning as it starts to push east of the
area.
The freezing rain will also continue to spread northeast across
south central Missouri through sunrise and then start to push
east of the area by the mid morning hours. As an upper level low
digs across southern California early this morning a southwest
flow aloft upper level pattern is developing. This has allowed a
warm nose to nudge into southern MO early this morning.
Temperatures at the surface remain in the upper 20s, so freezing
rain is occurring. The radar returns with this freezing rain are
looking convective in nature and is resulting in pockets of
moderate freezing rain. There could also be a brief period of
sleet within this activity given its convective nature. This area
of freezing rain is slowly shifting east and will be out of the
area by mid morning, and total ice accumulations will be a few
hundredths of an inch to near two tenths of an inch of ice across
portions of south central Missouri with heaviest occurring through
sunrise.
Elsewhere across the area the heavier precipitation has ended for
the most part, however freezing drizzle has developed across much
of the area and at least patchy freezing drizzle will continue to
occur through much of the morning before temperatures start to
warm above freezing and the drizzle tapers off.
A narrow band of snow is also expected to develop near sunrise
across eastern Kansas and track east this morning into early this
afternoon as mid level lift increases. The Band will develop near
the I-70 corridor just north of the area, but it could develop
far enough south to clip the northern portions of the forecast
area later this morning. Have left pops higher for areas roughly
along and north of U.S. Highway 54 to account for this band. This band
will be fairly narrow in nature and have included a dusting to around
one half of an inch of snowfall amount along and north of Hwy 54
to account for the southern edge of the band clipping these areas. With
this band expected to be narrow in nature amounts will drop off
sharply outside the band. If the band does setup farther south
amounts may need to be increased along the Highway 54 corridor,
but at this time its more likely to just clip these areas with it
staying more to the north.
This afternoon surface temperatures will slowly warm into the
middle 30s and any precipitation remaining will transition to rain or
a snow rain mix up north. The precipitation should also end fairly
quickly from west to east this afternoon with dry conditions
expected this evening and tonight. Lows will drop into the 20s
tonight.
Will keep the Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisories
going as is at this point given the on going and wintry weather,
and the freezing drizzle and banded snow potential through this
morning.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 400 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
Monday will remain dry as high pressure settles over the region.
Southerly wind will return but a big warm up will not occur on
Monday as highs warm into the middle 30s to around the 40 degree
mark.
The upper level low currently over southern California will kick
off to the northeast Monday night and race towards the region by
Tuesday, as another upper level low digs south across the west
coast. Surface low pressure will develop and push into the central
Plains Monday night and will lift a warm front through the region.
Scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will be possible as
the front lifts north, but instability is looking more limited as
it did a few days ago.
The surface low will then track into northern Missouri on Tuesday
then off to the east. A strong cold front will sweep through the
region later in the day Tuesday and a much colder air mass will
race into the area. Showers are expected to develop along and
ahead of the front and if enough instability can develop maybe a
few thunderstorms but again instability is going to be more
limited. Highs on Tuesday will warm into the 50s ahead of the cold
front.
Behind the front much colder temperatures will spread into the
area. As the upper level trough tracks through the region some
light snow will be possible behind the front will minor
accumulation possible. At this time the post frontal precipitation
should not be long in duration and will limit amounts. Highs on
Wednesday will only warm into the upper 20s to around 30 as highs
on Thursday warm into the lower to middle 30s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
PILOTS FLYING IN AND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AIRPORTS WILL
BE DEALING WITH IFR CEILINGS AND AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITIES
THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOST OF SUNDAY MORNING.
MOST OF THE HEAVIER SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN HAS SHIFTED INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI. ALL OTHER LOCATIONS WILL BE DEALING WITH
FREEZING DRIZZLE HEADING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
LOOK FOR WINDS TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR MOZ055-056-066-
067-077-078-088-089-093>098-101>106.
WINTER STORM WARNING until Noon CST today FOR MOZ057-058-068>071-
079>083-090>092.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Cramer

000
FXUS63 KSGF 011008
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
408 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2015
...Wintry Weather Continues This Morning..
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 400 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
Wintry weather continues to impact the area early this morning.
An area of snow is pushing east across central Missouri, as
freezing rain is spreading northeast across south central
Missouri.
The snow across central Missouri is on the light side but an
additional dusting to around one half inch will be possible
through sunrise this morning as it starts to push east of the
area.
The freezing rain will also continue to spread northeast across
south central Missouri through sunrise and then start to push
east of the area by the mid morning hours. As an upper level low
digs across southern California early this morning a southwest
flow aloft upper level pattern is developing. This has allowed a
warm nose to nudge into southern MO early this morning.
Temperatures at the surface remain in the upper 20s, so freezing
rain is occurring. The radar returns with this freezing rain are
looking convective in nature and is resulting in pockets of
moderate freezing rain. There could also be a brief period of
sleet within this activity given its convective nature. This area
of freezing rain is slowly shifting east and will be out of the
area by mid morning, and total ice accumulations will be a few
hundredths of an inch to near two tenths of an inch of ice across
portions of south central Missouri with heaviest occurring through
sunrise.
Elsewhere across the area the heavier precipitation has ended for
the most part, however freezing drizzle has developed across much
of the area and at least patchy freezing drizzle will continue to
occur through much of the morning before temperatures start to
warm above freezing and the drizzle tapers off.
A narrow band of snow is also expected to develop near sunrise
across eastern Kansas and track east this morning into early this
afternoon as mid level lift increases. The Band will develop near
the I-70 corridor just north of the area, but it could develop
far enough south to clip the northern portions of the forecast
area later this morning. Have left pops higher for areas roughly
along and north of U.S. Highway 54 to account for this band. This band
will be fairly narrow in nature and have included a dusting to around
one half of an inch of snowfall amount along and north of Hwy 54
to account for the southern edge of the band clipping these areas. With
this band expected to be narrow in nature amounts will drop off
sharply outside the band. If the band does setup farther south
amounts may need to be increased along the Highway 54 corridor,
but at this time its more likely to just clip these areas with it
staying more to the north.
This afternoon surface temperatures will slowly warm into the
middle 30s and any precipitation remaining will transition to rain or
a snow rain mix up north. The precipitation should also end fairly
quickly from west to east this afternoon with dry conditions
expected this evening and tonight. Lows will drop into the 20s
tonight.
Will keep the Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisories
going as is at this point given the on going and wintry weather,
and the freezing drizzle and banded snow potential through this
morning.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 400 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015
Monday will remain dry as high pressure settles over the region.
Southerly wind will return but a big warm up will not occur on
Monday as highs warm into the middle 30s to around the 40 degree
mark.
The upper level low currently over southern California will kick
off to the northeast Monday night and race towards the region by
Tuesday, as another upper level low digs south across the west
coast. Surface low pressure will develop and push into the central
Plains Monday night and will lift a warm front through the region.
Scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will be possible as
the front lifts north, but instability is looking more limited as
it did a few days ago.
The surface low will then track into northern Missouri on Tuesday
then off to the east. A strong cold front will sweep through the
region later in the day Tuesday and a much colder air mass will
race into the area. Showers are expected to develop along and
ahead of the front and if enough instability can develop maybe a
few thunderstorms but again instability is going to be more
limited. Highs on Tuesday will warm into the 50s ahead of the cold
front.
Behind the front much colder temperatures will spread into the
area. As the upper level trough tracks through the region some
light snow will be possible behind the front will minor
accumulation possible. At this time the post frontal precipitation
should not be long in duration and will limit amounts. Highs on
Wednesday will only warm into the upper 20s to around 30 as highs
on Thursday warm into the lower to middle 30s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
PILOTS FLYING IN AND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AIRPORTS WILL
BE DEALING WITH IFR CEILINGS AND AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITIES
THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOST OF SUNDAY MORNING.
MOST OF THE HEAVIER SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN HAS SHIFTED INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI. ALL OTHER LOCATIONS WILL BE DEALING WITH
FREEZING DRIZZLE HEADING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
LOOK FOR WINDS TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR MOZ055-056-066-
067-077-078-088-089-093>098-101>106.
WINTER STORM WARNING until Noon CST today FOR MOZ057-058-068>071-
079>083-090>092.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST today FOR KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Cramer

000
FXUS63 KSGF 010535
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1135 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALL OTHER LOCATIONS WILL BE DEALING
MAINLY WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPING AS WE HEAD INTO THE MONDAY
MORNING HOURS.
DUE TO THE FREEZING DRIZZLE CAUSING TRAVEL IMPACTS...THE HEADLINES
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 307 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015
A large area of snow has blanketed all of the Missouri Ozarks and
extreme southeastern Kansas as of mid afternoon. Visibilities were
pretty much below one mile over all areas...with occasional
observations indicating quarter mile visibilities with heavy snow.
Snowfall accumulations up through 3 PM have been in the 1-3"
range. We suspect that some locations across extreme southeastern
Kansas and west-central Missouri may be in that 3-4" range.
As we head into late this afternoon and this evening, short term
models are beginning to change their tune a bit. Both the RAP
and the HRRR have somewhat backed off on a secondary band of snow
developing along the I-44 corridor this evening. Even the 18Z NAM
has trended this way. Instead, models gradually take the large
area of moderate to occasionally heavy snow to the east and
northeast with the back edge of the heavier snow moving east
across the Ozarks this evening. This would tend to make sense as
low level isentropic upglide and a weak upper level jet coupling
structure shift towards the Mid Mississippi Valley. We will still
have to watch for some banding of snow as models do indicate some
slugs of increased 700 mb frontogenesis...especially along and
north of the I-44 corridor.
As we head into later tonight, the main area of snow will have
shifted east of the area. Pockets of light snow and flurries
will be left in its wake. While snow intensity will be on the
downward trend this evening (again from west to east), it will
tend to accumulate more efficiently given that the sun will have
set. Models are also indicating perhaps some loss of cloud ice
later tonight. Additionally, models still bring a warm nose into
southern Missouri by late tonight. Thus, we are continuing a
mention of either light freezing rain or freezing drizzle.
This trend will then continue into Sunday morning with pockets of
light snow and drizzle/freezing drizzle. We have slowed the
progress of the surface freezing line to the north by a few
hours...which does keep the door open a bit longer for minor ice
accumulation. One thing we will have to watch very closely is what
will be a good setup for a banded snow event from late tonight
into Sunday morning up towards I-70. Models continue to indicate
strong 700 mb frontogenesis and available negative EPV becoming
juxtaposed with a favorable upper level jet streak. If this
materializes, it could put down a narrow swath of additional
heavier snowfall. While this could glance our central Missouri
counties, confidence is higher that it will remain just north of
the area. Once we get into Sunday afternoon and especially Sunday
night, the primary precipitation will be shifting east and
southeast of the region.
As for storm total ice and snow amounts, we have not changed much.
Any ice accumulations are still expected to remain at or below
five-hundredths of an inch. 1-3" of snow is expected across
south-central Missouri. Accumulations near and north of the I-44
corridor will be in the 3-6" range. We still think a few isolated
reports of around 7" will be possible. Given that any 6-7" amounts
are expected to be isolated (if they occur at all), the current
Winter Weather Advisory will be left intact.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 307 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015
By Monday morning, precipitation should push south of the region,
at least temporarily, as high pressure noses south from the
Dakotas. Highs on Monday look to reach the upper 30s in most
locations.
Precipitation will then return to the area Monday night into
Tuesday, though at this point it appears that temperatures
should be above freezing by the time rain begins to fall Monday
night. Rain will continue through much of the day Tuesday, as low
pressure at the surface deepens and lifts north across Kansas and
northern Missouri. Breezy southwest winds during the day Tuesday
will help temperatures warm into the low to mid 50s. Will continue
to include a mention of thunder in the forecast for Tuesday, with
guidance suggesting a couple hundred J/KG of CAPE making its way
into the CWA.
A strong cold front will then sweep across the area Tuesday
afternoon and evening, with colder air quickly advecting into
the area Tuesday night. We will need to carefully watch the
potential for post frontal snow Tuesday night and Wednesday, as
lift from a secondary trough axis may be enough to result in areas
of snow on Wednesday. As it stands right now, the highest snow
potential for Wednesday looks to be south of I-44, though this
will be highly dependent on the eventual location of the front.
The upper level flow will then flatten out a bit, with
southwesterly flow developing at the surface for the end of the
week into next weekend. This is suggestive of warmer temperatures
for the end of the week, with highs perhaps (finally) approaching
climatological averages by this time next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
PILOTS FLYING IN AND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AIRPORTS WILL
BE DEALING WITH IFR CEILINGS AND AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITIES
THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOST OF SUNDAY MORNING.
MOST OF THE HEAVIER SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN HAS SHIFTED INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI. ALL OTHER LOCATIONS WILL BE DEALING WITH
FREEZING DRIZZLE HEADING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
LOOK FOR WINDS TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST Sunday FOR MOZ055-056-066-
067-077-078-088-089-093>098-101>106.
WINTER STORM WARNING until Noon CST Sunday FOR MOZ057-058-
068>071-079>083-090>092.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST Sunday FOR KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Schaumann/Cramer
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Cramer

000
FXUS63 KSGF 010535
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1135 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALL OTHER LOCATIONS WILL BE DEALING
MAINLY WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPING AS WE HEAD INTO THE MONDAY
MORNING HOURS.
DUE TO THE FREEZING DRIZZLE CAUSING TRAVEL IMPACTS...THE HEADLINES
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 307 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015
A large area of snow has blanketed all of the Missouri Ozarks and
extreme southeastern Kansas as of mid afternoon. Visibilities were
pretty much below one mile over all areas...with occasional
observations indicating quarter mile visibilities with heavy snow.
Snowfall accumulations up through 3 PM have been in the 1-3"
range. We suspect that some locations across extreme southeastern
Kansas and west-central Missouri may be in that 3-4" range.
As we head into late this afternoon and this evening, short term
models are beginning to change their tune a bit. Both the RAP
and the HRRR have somewhat backed off on a secondary band of snow
developing along the I-44 corridor this evening. Even the 18Z NAM
has trended this way. Instead, models gradually take the large
area of moderate to occasionally heavy snow to the east and
northeast with the back edge of the heavier snow moving east
across the Ozarks this evening. This would tend to make sense as
low level isentropic upglide and a weak upper level jet coupling
structure shift towards the Mid Mississippi Valley. We will still
have to watch for some banding of snow as models do indicate some
slugs of increased 700 mb frontogenesis...especially along and
north of the I-44 corridor.
As we head into later tonight, the main area of snow will have
shifted east of the area. Pockets of light snow and flurries
will be left in its wake. While snow intensity will be on the
downward trend this evening (again from west to east), it will
tend to accumulate more efficiently given that the sun will have
set. Models are also indicating perhaps some loss of cloud ice
later tonight. Additionally, models still bring a warm nose into
southern Missouri by late tonight. Thus, we are continuing a
mention of either light freezing rain or freezing drizzle.
This trend will then continue into Sunday morning with pockets of
light snow and drizzle/freezing drizzle. We have slowed the
progress of the surface freezing line to the north by a few
hours...which does keep the door open a bit longer for minor ice
accumulation. One thing we will have to watch very closely is what
will be a good setup for a banded snow event from late tonight
into Sunday morning up towards I-70. Models continue to indicate
strong 700 mb frontogenesis and available negative EPV becoming
juxtaposed with a favorable upper level jet streak. If this
materializes, it could put down a narrow swath of additional
heavier snowfall. While this could glance our central Missouri
counties, confidence is higher that it will remain just north of
the area. Once we get into Sunday afternoon and especially Sunday
night, the primary precipitation will be shifting east and
southeast of the region.
As for storm total ice and snow amounts, we have not changed much.
Any ice accumulations are still expected to remain at or below
five-hundredths of an inch. 1-3" of snow is expected across
south-central Missouri. Accumulations near and north of the I-44
corridor will be in the 3-6" range. We still think a few isolated
reports of around 7" will be possible. Given that any 6-7" amounts
are expected to be isolated (if they occur at all), the current
Winter Weather Advisory will be left intact.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 307 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015
By Monday morning, precipitation should push south of the region,
at least temporarily, as high pressure noses south from the
Dakotas. Highs on Monday look to reach the upper 30s in most
locations.
Precipitation will then return to the area Monday night into
Tuesday, though at this point it appears that temperatures
should be above freezing by the time rain begins to fall Monday
night. Rain will continue through much of the day Tuesday, as low
pressure at the surface deepens and lifts north across Kansas and
northern Missouri. Breezy southwest winds during the day Tuesday
will help temperatures warm into the low to mid 50s. Will continue
to include a mention of thunder in the forecast for Tuesday, with
guidance suggesting a couple hundred J/KG of CAPE making its way
into the CWA.
A strong cold front will then sweep across the area Tuesday
afternoon and evening, with colder air quickly advecting into
the area Tuesday night. We will need to carefully watch the
potential for post frontal snow Tuesday night and Wednesday, as
lift from a secondary trough axis may be enough to result in areas
of snow on Wednesday. As it stands right now, the highest snow
potential for Wednesday looks to be south of I-44, though this
will be highly dependent on the eventual location of the front.
The upper level flow will then flatten out a bit, with
southwesterly flow developing at the surface for the end of the
week into next weekend. This is suggestive of warmer temperatures
for the end of the week, with highs perhaps (finally) approaching
climatological averages by this time next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
PILOTS FLYING IN AND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AIRPORTS WILL
BE DEALING WITH IFR CEILINGS AND AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITIES
THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOST OF SUNDAY MORNING.
MOST OF THE HEAVIER SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN HAS SHIFTED INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI. ALL OTHER LOCATIONS WILL BE DEALING WITH
FREEZING DRIZZLE HEADING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
LOOK FOR WINDS TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST Sunday FOR MOZ055-056-066-
067-077-078-088-089-093>098-101>106.
WINTER STORM WARNING until Noon CST Sunday FOR MOZ057-058-
068>071-079>083-090>092.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST Sunday FOR KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Schaumann/Cramer
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Cramer

000
FXUS63 KSGF 010535
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1135 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALL OTHER LOCATIONS WILL BE DEALING
MAINLY WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPING AS WE HEAD INTO THE MONDAY
MORNING HOURS.
DUE TO THE FREEZING DRIZZLE CAUSING TRAVEL IMPACTS...THE HEADLINES
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 307 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015
A large area of snow has blanketed all of the Missouri Ozarks and
extreme southeastern Kansas as of mid afternoon. Visibilities were
pretty much below one mile over all areas...with occasional
observations indicating quarter mile visibilities with heavy snow.
Snowfall accumulations up through 3 PM have been in the 1-3"
range. We suspect that some locations across extreme southeastern
Kansas and west-central Missouri may be in that 3-4" range.
As we head into late this afternoon and this evening, short term
models are beginning to change their tune a bit. Both the RAP
and the HRRR have somewhat backed off on a secondary band of snow
developing along the I-44 corridor this evening. Even the 18Z NAM
has trended this way. Instead, models gradually take the large
area of moderate to occasionally heavy snow to the east and
northeast with the back edge of the heavier snow moving east
across the Ozarks this evening. This would tend to make sense as
low level isentropic upglide and a weak upper level jet coupling
structure shift towards the Mid Mississippi Valley. We will still
have to watch for some banding of snow as models do indicate some
slugs of increased 700 mb frontogenesis...especially along and
north of the I-44 corridor.
As we head into later tonight, the main area of snow will have
shifted east of the area. Pockets of light snow and flurries
will be left in its wake. While snow intensity will be on the
downward trend this evening (again from west to east), it will
tend to accumulate more efficiently given that the sun will have
set. Models are also indicating perhaps some loss of cloud ice
later tonight. Additionally, models still bring a warm nose into
southern Missouri by late tonight. Thus, we are continuing a
mention of either light freezing rain or freezing drizzle.
This trend will then continue into Sunday morning with pockets of
light snow and drizzle/freezing drizzle. We have slowed the
progress of the surface freezing line to the north by a few
hours...which does keep the door open a bit longer for minor ice
accumulation. One thing we will have to watch very closely is what
will be a good setup for a banded snow event from late tonight
into Sunday morning up towards I-70. Models continue to indicate
strong 700 mb frontogenesis and available negative EPV becoming
juxtaposed with a favorable upper level jet streak. If this
materializes, it could put down a narrow swath of additional
heavier snowfall. While this could glance our central Missouri
counties, confidence is higher that it will remain just north of
the area. Once we get into Sunday afternoon and especially Sunday
night, the primary precipitation will be shifting east and
southeast of the region.
As for storm total ice and snow amounts, we have not changed much.
Any ice accumulations are still expected to remain at or below
five-hundredths of an inch. 1-3" of snow is expected across
south-central Missouri. Accumulations near and north of the I-44
corridor will be in the 3-6" range. We still think a few isolated
reports of around 7" will be possible. Given that any 6-7" amounts
are expected to be isolated (if they occur at all), the current
Winter Weather Advisory will be left intact.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 307 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015
By Monday morning, precipitation should push south of the region,
at least temporarily, as high pressure noses south from the
Dakotas. Highs on Monday look to reach the upper 30s in most
locations.
Precipitation will then return to the area Monday night into
Tuesday, though at this point it appears that temperatures
should be above freezing by the time rain begins to fall Monday
night. Rain will continue through much of the day Tuesday, as low
pressure at the surface deepens and lifts north across Kansas and
northern Missouri. Breezy southwest winds during the day Tuesday
will help temperatures warm into the low to mid 50s. Will continue
to include a mention of thunder in the forecast for Tuesday, with
guidance suggesting a couple hundred J/KG of CAPE making its way
into the CWA.
A strong cold front will then sweep across the area Tuesday
afternoon and evening, with colder air quickly advecting into
the area Tuesday night. We will need to carefully watch the
potential for post frontal snow Tuesday night and Wednesday, as
lift from a secondary trough axis may be enough to result in areas
of snow on Wednesday. As it stands right now, the highest snow
potential for Wednesday looks to be south of I-44, though this
will be highly dependent on the eventual location of the front.
The upper level flow will then flatten out a bit, with
southwesterly flow developing at the surface for the end of the
week into next weekend. This is suggestive of warmer temperatures
for the end of the week, with highs perhaps (finally) approaching
climatological averages by this time next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
PILOTS FLYING IN AND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AIRPORTS WILL
BE DEALING WITH IFR CEILINGS AND AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITIES
THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOST OF SUNDAY MORNING.
MOST OF THE HEAVIER SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN HAS SHIFTED INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI. ALL OTHER LOCATIONS WILL BE DEALING WITH
FREEZING DRIZZLE HEADING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
LOOK FOR WINDS TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST Sunday FOR MOZ055-056-066-
067-077-078-088-089-093>098-101>106.
WINTER STORM WARNING until Noon CST Sunday FOR MOZ057-058-
068>071-079>083-090>092.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST Sunday FOR KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Schaumann/Cramer
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Cramer

000
FXUS63 KSGF 010535
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1135 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALL OTHER LOCATIONS WILL BE DEALING
MAINLY WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPING AS WE HEAD INTO THE MONDAY
MORNING HOURS.
DUE TO THE FREEZING DRIZZLE CAUSING TRAVEL IMPACTS...THE HEADLINES
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 307 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015
A large area of snow has blanketed all of the Missouri Ozarks and
extreme southeastern Kansas as of mid afternoon. Visibilities were
pretty much below one mile over all areas...with occasional
observations indicating quarter mile visibilities with heavy snow.
Snowfall accumulations up through 3 PM have been in the 1-3"
range. We suspect that some locations across extreme southeastern
Kansas and west-central Missouri may be in that 3-4" range.
As we head into late this afternoon and this evening, short term
models are beginning to change their tune a bit. Both the RAP
and the HRRR have somewhat backed off on a secondary band of snow
developing along the I-44 corridor this evening. Even the 18Z NAM
has trended this way. Instead, models gradually take the large
area of moderate to occasionally heavy snow to the east and
northeast with the back edge of the heavier snow moving east
across the Ozarks this evening. This would tend to make sense as
low level isentropic upglide and a weak upper level jet coupling
structure shift towards the Mid Mississippi Valley. We will still
have to watch for some banding of snow as models do indicate some
slugs of increased 700 mb frontogenesis...especially along and
north of the I-44 corridor.
As we head into later tonight, the main area of snow will have
shifted east of the area. Pockets of light snow and flurries
will be left in its wake. While snow intensity will be on the
downward trend this evening (again from west to east), it will
tend to accumulate more efficiently given that the sun will have
set. Models are also indicating perhaps some loss of cloud ice
later tonight. Additionally, models still bring a warm nose into
southern Missouri by late tonight. Thus, we are continuing a
mention of either light freezing rain or freezing drizzle.
This trend will then continue into Sunday morning with pockets of
light snow and drizzle/freezing drizzle. We have slowed the
progress of the surface freezing line to the north by a few
hours...which does keep the door open a bit longer for minor ice
accumulation. One thing we will have to watch very closely is what
will be a good setup for a banded snow event from late tonight
into Sunday morning up towards I-70. Models continue to indicate
strong 700 mb frontogenesis and available negative EPV becoming
juxtaposed with a favorable upper level jet streak. If this
materializes, it could put down a narrow swath of additional
heavier snowfall. While this could glance our central Missouri
counties, confidence is higher that it will remain just north of
the area. Once we get into Sunday afternoon and especially Sunday
night, the primary precipitation will be shifting east and
southeast of the region.
As for storm total ice and snow amounts, we have not changed much.
Any ice accumulations are still expected to remain at or below
five-hundredths of an inch. 1-3" of snow is expected across
south-central Missouri. Accumulations near and north of the I-44
corridor will be in the 3-6" range. We still think a few isolated
reports of around 7" will be possible. Given that any 6-7" amounts
are expected to be isolated (if they occur at all), the current
Winter Weather Advisory will be left intact.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 307 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015
By Monday morning, precipitation should push south of the region,
at least temporarily, as high pressure noses south from the
Dakotas. Highs on Monday look to reach the upper 30s in most
locations.
Precipitation will then return to the area Monday night into
Tuesday, though at this point it appears that temperatures
should be above freezing by the time rain begins to fall Monday
night. Rain will continue through much of the day Tuesday, as low
pressure at the surface deepens and lifts north across Kansas and
northern Missouri. Breezy southwest winds during the day Tuesday
will help temperatures warm into the low to mid 50s. Will continue
to include a mention of thunder in the forecast for Tuesday, with
guidance suggesting a couple hundred J/KG of CAPE making its way
into the CWA.
A strong cold front will then sweep across the area Tuesday
afternoon and evening, with colder air quickly advecting into
the area Tuesday night. We will need to carefully watch the
potential for post frontal snow Tuesday night and Wednesday, as
lift from a secondary trough axis may be enough to result in areas
of snow on Wednesday. As it stands right now, the highest snow
potential for Wednesday looks to be south of I-44, though this
will be highly dependent on the eventual location of the front.
The upper level flow will then flatten out a bit, with
southwesterly flow developing at the surface for the end of the
week into next weekend. This is suggestive of warmer temperatures
for the end of the week, with highs perhaps (finally) approaching
climatological averages by this time next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
PILOTS FLYING IN AND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AIRPORTS WILL
BE DEALING WITH IFR CEILINGS AND AT LEAST MVFR VISIBILITIES
THROUGH TONIGHT AND MOST OF SUNDAY MORNING.
MOST OF THE HEAVIER SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN HAS SHIFTED INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI. ALL OTHER LOCATIONS WILL BE DEALING WITH
FREEZING DRIZZLE HEADING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
LOOK FOR WINDS TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST Sunday FOR MOZ055-056-066-
067-077-078-088-089-093>098-101>106.
WINTER STORM WARNING until Noon CST Sunday FOR MOZ057-058-
068>071-079>083-090>092.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST Sunday FOR KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Schaumann/Cramer
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Cramer

000
FXUS63 KSGF 010035
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
635 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015
...Winter Weather Advisory Upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning for
Portions of the Ozarks...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 619 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015
Calls around and social media reports indicate that 4-5" of snow
has now fallen along and north of the I-44 corridor and along and
east of the U.S. 65 corridor. The snow has started accumulating
much more efficiently with the setting sun. With the back edge of
the most organized precipitation just now getting to the KS/MO
line, we still think another 1-3" of snow will fall...especially
along and north of the Ozark Plateau and east of U.S. 65. With
that being said, we have upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning from
Polk and Greene Counties...northeast into the Lake of the Ozarks
and Salem region.
While snow will become lighter from west to east later this
evening, we are expecting the potential for a light wintry mix
overnight and into Sunday morning. Radar and satellite trends as
well as observations indicate freezing drizzle, very light
freezing rain, and even some light sleet pushing in from eastern
Oklahoma and Kansas. Minor ice accumulations will therefore be
left in the forecast as we head into later tonight and Sunday
morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 307 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015
A large area of snow has blanketed all of the Missouri Ozarks and
extreme southeastern Kansas as of mid afternoon. Visibilities were
pretty much below one mile over all areas...with occasional
observations indicating quarter mile visibilities with heavy snow.
Snowfall accumulations up through 3 PM have been in the 1-3"
range. We suspect that some locations across extreme southeastern
Kansas and west-central Missouri may be in that 3-4" range.
As we head into late this afternoon and this evening, short term
models are beginning to change their tune a bit. Both the RAP
and the HRRR have somewhat backed off on a secondary band of snow
developing along the I-44 corridor this evening. Even the 18Z NAM
has trended this way. Instead, models gradually take the large
area of moderate to occasionally heavy snow to the east and
northeast with the back edge of the heavier snow moving east
across the Ozarks this evening. This would tend to make sense as
low level isentropic upglide and a weak upper level jet coupling
structure shift towards the Mid Mississippi Valley. We will still
have to watch for some banding of snow as models do indicate some
slugs of increased 700 mb frontogenesis...especially along and
north of the I-44 corridor.
As we head into later tonight, the main area of snow will have
shifted east of the area. Pockets of light snow and flurries
will be left in its wake. While snow intensity will be on the
downward trend this evening (again from west to east), it will
tend to accumulate more efficiently given that the sun will have
set. Models are also indicating perhaps some loss of cloud ice
later tonight. Additionally, models still bring a warm nose into
southern Missouri by late tonight. Thus, we are continuing a
mention of either light freezing rain or freezing drizzle.
This trend will then continue into Sunday morning with pockets of
light snow and drizzle/freezing drizzle. We have slowed the
progress of the surface freezing line to the north by a few
hours...which does keep the door open a bit longer for minor ice
accumulation. One thing we will have to watch very closely is what
will be a good setup for a banded snow event from late tonight
into Sunday morning up towards I-70. Models continue to indicate
strong 700 mb frontogenesis and available negative EPV becoming
juxtaposed with a favorable upper level jet streak. If this
materializes, it could put down a narrow swath of additional
heavier snowfall. While this could glance our central Missouri
counties, confidence is higher that it will remain just north of
the area. Once we get into Sunday afternoon and especially Sunday
night, the primary precipitation will be shifting east and
southeast of the region.
As for storm total ice and snow amounts, we have not changed much.
Any ice accumulations are still expected to remain at or below
five-hundredths of an inch. 1-3" of snow is expected across
south-central Missouri. Accumulations near and north of the I-44
corridor will be in the 3-6" range. We still think a few isolated
reports of around 7" will be possible. Given that any 6-7" amounts
are expected to be isolated (if they occur at all), the current
Winter Weather Advisory will be left intact.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 307 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015
By Monday morning, precipitation should push south of the region,
at least temporarily, as high pressure noses south from the
Dakotas. Highs on Monday look to reach the upper 30s in most
locations.
Precipitation will then return to the area Monday night into
Tuesday, though at this point it appears that temperatures
should be above freezing by the time rain begins to fall Monday
night. Rain will continue through much of the day Tuesday, as low
pressure at the surface deepens and lifts north across Kansas and
northern Missouri. Breezy southwest winds during the day Tuesday
will help temperatures warm into the low to mid 50s. Will continue
to include a mention of thunder in the forecast for Tuesday, with
guidance suggesting a couple hundred J/KG of CAPE making its way
into the CWA.
A strong cold front will then sweep across the area Tuesday
afternoon and evening, with colder air quickly advecting into
the area Tuesday night. We will need to carefully watch the
potential for post frontal snow Tuesday night and Wednesday, as
lift from a secondary trough axis may be enough to result in areas
of snow on Wednesday. As it stands right now, the highest snow
potential for Wednesday looks to be south of I-44, though this
will be highly dependent on the eventual location of the front.
The upper level flow will then flatten out a bit, with
southwesterly flow developing at the surface for the end of the
week into next weekend. This is suggestive of warmer temperatures
for the end of the week, with highs perhaps (finally) approaching
climatological averages by this time next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1149 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015
IFR and LIFR conditions will continue this afternoon and evening
across the region as moderate to at times heavy snow affect the
terminals. Prevailing conditions will likely be just above airport
minimums at SGF and JLN, but dips to or below mins are likely
if/when bands of the heaviest snow move overhead.
Snow intensity should decrease somewhat later tonight, though cigs
will remain low. A south to north transition to a wintry mix of
snow, rain and freezing rain is expected at some point late
tonight, with an eventual changeover to just rain around mid day
tomorrow as temperatures rise above freezing. While this
transition has been indicated in the TAFs, confidence in exact
timing is very low.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST Sunday FOR MOZ055-056-066-
067-077-078-088-089-093>098-101>106.
WINTER STORM WARNING until Noon CST Sunday FOR MOZ057-058-
068>071-079>083-090>092.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST Sunday FOR KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Schaumann/Cramer
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Boxell

000
FXUS63 KSGF 010035
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
635 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2015
...Winter Weather Advisory Upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning for
Portions of the Ozarks...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 619 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015
Calls around and social media reports indicate that 4-5" of snow
has now fallen along and north of the I-44 corridor and along and
east of the U.S. 65 corridor. The snow has started accumulating
much more efficiently with the setting sun. With the back edge of
the most organized precipitation just now getting to the KS/MO
line, we still think another 1-3" of snow will fall...especially
along and north of the Ozark Plateau and east of U.S. 65. With
that being said, we have upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning from
Polk and Greene Counties...northeast into the Lake of the Ozarks
and Salem region.
While snow will become lighter from west to east later this
evening, we are expecting the potential for a light wintry mix
overnight and into Sunday morning. Radar and satellite trends as
well as observations indicate freezing drizzle, very light
freezing rain, and even some light sleet pushing in from eastern
Oklahoma and Kansas. Minor ice accumulations will therefore be
left in the forecast as we head into later tonight and Sunday
morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 307 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015
A large area of snow has blanketed all of the Missouri Ozarks and
extreme southeastern Kansas as of mid afternoon. Visibilities were
pretty much below one mile over all areas...with occasional
observations indicating quarter mile visibilities with heavy snow.
Snowfall accumulations up through 3 PM have been in the 1-3"
range. We suspect that some locations across extreme southeastern
Kansas and west-central Missouri may be in that 3-4" range.
As we head into late this afternoon and this evening, short term
models are beginning to change their tune a bit. Both the RAP
and the HRRR have somewhat backed off on a secondary band of snow
developing along the I-44 corridor this evening. Even the 18Z NAM
has trended this way. Instead, models gradually take the large
area of moderate to occasionally heavy snow to the east and
northeast with the back edge of the heavier snow moving east
across the Ozarks this evening. This would tend to make sense as
low level isentropic upglide and a weak upper level jet coupling
structure shift towards the Mid Mississippi Valley. We will still
have to watch for some banding of snow as models do indicate some
slugs of increased 700 mb frontogenesis...especially along and
north of the I-44 corridor.
As we head into later tonight, the main area of snow will have
shifted east of the area. Pockets of light snow and flurries
will be left in its wake. While snow intensity will be on the
downward trend this evening (again from west to east), it will
tend to accumulate more efficiently given that the sun will have
set. Models are also indicating perhaps some loss of cloud ice
later tonight. Additionally, models still bring a warm nose into
southern Missouri by late tonight. Thus, we are continuing a
mention of either light freezing rain or freezing drizzle.
This trend will then continue into Sunday morning with pockets of
light snow and drizzle/freezing drizzle. We have slowed the
progress of the surface freezing line to the north by a few
hours...which does keep the door open a bit longer for minor ice
accumulation. One thing we will have to watch very closely is what
will be a good setup for a banded snow event from late tonight
into Sunday morning up towards I-70. Models continue to indicate
strong 700 mb frontogenesis and available negative EPV becoming
juxtaposed with a favorable upper level jet streak. If this
materializes, it could put down a narrow swath of additional
heavier snowfall. While this could glance our central Missouri
counties, confidence is higher that it will remain just north of
the area. Once we get into Sunday afternoon and especially Sunday
night, the primary precipitation will be shifting east and
southeast of the region.
As for storm total ice and snow amounts, we have not changed much.
Any ice accumulations are still expected to remain at or below
five-hundredths of an inch. 1-3" of snow is expected across
south-central Missouri. Accumulations near and north of the I-44
corridor will be in the 3-6" range. We still think a few isolated
reports of around 7" will be possible. Given that any 6-7" amounts
are expected to be isolated (if they occur at all), the current
Winter Weather Advisory will be left intact.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 307 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015
By Monday morning, precipitation should push south of the region,
at least temporarily, as high pressure noses south from the
Dakotas. Highs on Monday look to reach the upper 30s in most
locations.
Precipitation will then return to the area Monday night into
Tuesday, though at this point it appears that temperatures
should be above freezing by the time rain begins to fall Monday
night. Rain will continue through much of the day Tuesday, as low
pressure at the surface deepens and lifts north across Kansas and
northern Missouri. Breezy southwest winds during the day Tuesday
will help temperatures warm into the low to mid 50s. Will continue
to include a mention of thunder in the forecast for Tuesday, with
guidance suggesting a couple hundred J/KG of CAPE making its way
into the CWA.
A strong cold front will then sweep across the area Tuesday
afternoon and evening, with colder air quickly advecting into
the area Tuesday night. We will need to carefully watch the
potential for post frontal snow Tuesday night and Wednesday, as
lift from a secondary trough axis may be enough to result in areas
of snow on Wednesday. As it stands right now, the highest snow
potential for Wednesday looks to be south of I-44, though this
will be highly dependent on the eventual location of the front.
The upper level flow will then flatten out a bit, with
southwesterly flow developing at the surface for the end of the
week into next weekend. This is suggestive of warmer temperatures
for the end of the week, with highs perhaps (finally) approaching
climatological averages by this time next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1149 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015
IFR and LIFR conditions will continue this afternoon and evening
across the region as moderate to at times heavy snow affect the
terminals. Prevailing conditions will likely be just above airport
minimums at SGF and JLN, but dips to or below mins are likely
if/when bands of the heaviest snow move overhead.
Snow intensity should decrease somewhat later tonight, though cigs
will remain low. A south to north transition to a wintry mix of
snow, rain and freezing rain is expected at some point late
tonight, with an eventual changeover to just rain around mid day
tomorrow as temperatures rise above freezing. While this
transition has been indicated in the TAFs, confidence in exact
timing is very low.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST Sunday FOR MOZ055-056-066-
067-077-078-088-089-093>098-101>106.
WINTER STORM WARNING until Noon CST Sunday FOR MOZ057-058-
068>071-079>083-090>092.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until Noon CST Sunday FOR KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Schaumann/Cramer
SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Boxell