NOAA Says This Hurricane Season Will Be Even Worse Than Predicted

There are two tropical disturbances brewing in the Atlantic Ocean right now. It's likely neither will hit Florida. One, called Invest 99L, very likely could become a depression, but current models predict it will loop back out toward the center of the ocean without hitting us. The other, a tropical wave floating over the Bahamas, has only a 20 percent chance of turning into a tropical storm.

"The season has the potential to be extremely active, and could be the most active since 2010," NOAA wrote today. NOAA now warns there will likely be 14 to 19 named storms this year, five to nine hurricanes, and two to five "major" ones. There's now a 60 percent chance this all occurs:

“We’re now entering the peak of the season when the bulk of the storms usually form,” Gerry Bell, the lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, said in a news release. “The wind and air patterns in the area of the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean where many storms develop are very conducive to an above-normal season. This is in part because the chance of an El Nino forming, which tends to prevent storms from strengthening, has dropped significantly from May.”

NOAA today warned people in hurricane-prone areas to make sure they have plans in place to deal with storm surges, power outages, and possible evacuations — and it seems Miamians ought to start paying attention to weather models until fall hits.

Case in point: Even now, there's an outside shot Miami gets grazed by one or two current tropical disturbances. Weather models from earlier this week predicted, with pretty low confidence, that if 99L turned into a larger storm, it could potentially raze the Florida coastline — but as of today, those models have moved the storm eastward into the sea.

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But with Mother Nature taking more potshots at the Florida coastline, it's way more likely she lands a direct hit at some point. NOAA today noted there have been six named storms already this year in the first two months of hurricane season. Normally, it would take six months to reach that number.

"Today’s updated outlook underscores the need for everyone to know their true vulnerabilities to storms and storm surge,” FEMA Administrator Brock Long announced. “As we enter the height of hurricane season, it’s important for everyone to know who issues evacuation orders in their community, heed the warnings, update their insurance and have a preparedness plan.”

Jerry Iannelli is Miami New Times’ daily-news reporter. He graduated with honors from Temple University. He then earned his master’s degree in journalism from Columbia University. He moved to South Florida in 2015.