At the moment, conventional wisdom has it that the Democratic Party’s odds of reclaiming control of the House are on something of a knife’s edge. The Democratic lead in the generic congressional ballot is standing right on the cusp of the 7- to 8-percent lead most analysts consider necessary to flip the 23 seats needed for control. Democratic enthusiasm remains high. But it’s hard to figure what dynamics will matter most in the stretch run.

The Cook Political Report’s Amy Walter points out that in two recent “wave” midterm elections, in 2006 and 2010 — both of which flipped control of the House — the late trends were very strongly against the party controlling the presidency:

Y’all, Tennessee is making waves—blue waves. In a Shelby County election, Tennessee Democrats absolutely trounced their Republican opponents, winning 21 of 26 county offices up for grabs. From the Commercial Appeal:

Of the 26 county offices up for grabs, Democrats won all but five — and those were previously Republican commission seats. Before the election, Republicans held nine of the 10 most high-profile county offices, including mayor and sheriff. Now, they hold zero.

How to describe the devastation of last night's win for Republicans? It was a rout. A sweep. A wave that overwhelmed Republicans who had largely controlled the county — not counting the commission, which had a scant Democratic majority — since 2008.

Former President Barack Obama endorses 81 candidates in U.S. midterms, says he's 'eager' to get involved

WASHINGTON – Former President Barack Obama announced endorsements Wednesday of 81 Democratic candidates in the November midterm elections, and said he is "eager" to help his party gain seats in a contest widely seen as a referendum on President Donald Trump.

While Obama did not mention Trump by name, he said in a statement outlining his plans that he wanted to lend his status to help candidates who would fight for shared opportunity, help repair alliances abroad and further a commitment to justice.

In a sign of the growing unrest on the left, a plurality of Democratic congressional aides surveyed by CQ Roll Call last month said the party should replace Nancy Pelosi as leader whether Democrats win a House majority in November or not.

The Capitol Insiders Survey, which CQ Roll Call emailed to aides on July 13 and remained open till July 18, drew responses from 191 aides, 103 of them Democrats, 84 Republicans and four independents.

LOS ANGELES — Republicans hoping to hold on to their majorities in state legislative chambers across the country are nervously eying President Trump’s anemic approval rating, concerned that a wave of voter anger could undo years of gains.

In interviews at the National Conference of State Legislators' annual meetings last week, Republican leaders from purple and red states said they were worried that their members — most of whom are little-known even inside their own districts — are most vulnerable to an electoral atmosphere that even slightly benefits Democrats.

ST. LOUIS COUNTY • Polls are closed in St. Louis County, where Democratic voters in Tuesday's primary will likely choose who will lead the state's largest county for the next four years.

St. Louis County Executive Steve Stenger is trying to fend off a challenge from a well-funded opponent, retired businessman Mark Mantovani, to hold on to the Democratic Party's nomination for the top office.

The West Anchorage Assembly special election concluded today. The unofficial results show Austin Quinn-Davidson holding a commanding lead with almost 50% of the vote with nearly 7,200 ballots counted. Nikki Rose has just over 31% and Sam Moore is just under 10%.

More ballots will arrive in the mail but Rose will not be able to overtake Quinn-Davidson, making her the winner of the special election. Here are the unofficial results posted on the Muni website.

The Michigan primary victory of Rashida Tlaib, who is expected to become the first Muslim woman and Palestinian-American to serve in the U.S. Congress, triggered an outpouring of joy in her ancestral village on Wednesday.

Relatives in Beit Our al-Foqa, where Tlaib's mother was born, greeted the news with a mixture of pride and hope that she will take on a U.S. administration widely seen as hostile to the Palestinian cause.

"It's a great honor for this small town. It's a great honor for the Palestinian people to have Rashida in the Congress," said Mohammed Tlaib, the village's former mayor and a distant relative. "For sure she will serve Palestine, for sure she will serve the interests of her nation. She is deeply rooted here."

Rashida Tlaib, a former state lawmaker, defeated five other candidates to win the Democratic nomination in her Michigan district in Tuesday's primary. She will run unopposed, setting her up to take the spot held since 1965 by John Conyers, who stepped down in December citing health reasons amid charges of sexual harassment.

Tlaib, 42, is the eldest of 14 children born to Palestinian immigrants in Detroit. On her website, she advocates progressive positions associated with the Bernie Sanders wing of the Democratic Party, such as universal health care, a higher minimum wage, environmental protection and affordable university tuition.

As a state lawmaker, she sought to defend Detroit's poor, taking on refineries and a billionaire trucking magnate who she accused of polluting city neighborhoods. On the campaign trail, she criticized the influence of "big money" on politics and took aim at President Donald Trump, whom she famously heckled in 2016 while he was delivering a speech in Detroit...............

New Virginia Poll: Kaine Up 23 Points; Dems Up 19 Points for Control of Congress; Almost Nobody Wants General Assembly to Draw District Lines

A brand-new poll by the the L. Douglas Wilder School of Government and Public Affairs at Virginia Commonwealth University is out today. Here are the key results. Also note a that a June Quinnipiac University poll had Kaine up 18 points (54%-36%).

Sen. Tim Kaine (D) leads Corey Stewart by 23 points (49%-26%), with only 66% of Republican supporting Stewart, while 88% of Democrats support Kaine. Independents split more than 2:1 in favor of Kaine.

SACRAMENTO, Calif. (AP) — Democrat Vanessa Delgado had a comfortable lead Wednesday in a Southern California special election to replace a state senator who resigned over sexual misconduct allegations.

If she maintains her advantage, the mayor of Montebello will represent parts of Los Angeles and Orange counties for just three months. That's what was left in the term of state Sen. Tony Mendoza, who resigned in February.

A Failure to Launch? Kansas’ Republican Gubernatorial Contest and the History of Incumbent Governor Primary Performance

— As of Wednesday afternoon, Gov. Jeff Colyer (R-KS) trailed Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach (R) 40.6%-40.5% in Kansas’ gubernatorial primary. If Colyer’s deficit holds, it would mark the first primary loss for an incumbent governor in 2018.

— If the final outcome is similar to the current vote, Colyer’s defeat would make history: His present margin of defeat stands as the narrowest ever for an incumbent governor in a primary. Conversely, if Colyer wins based on the counting of outstanding votes and/or a recount, he could claim the record for narrowest primary win among incumbent governors.

A Ferguson city councilman appears to have defeated the St. Louis County prosecuting attorney who oversaw the controversial grand jury inquiry into the 2014 police killing of unarmed black teen Michael Brown in a Tuesday primary, according to unofficial election results.

Wesley Bell would replace Robert McCulloch, who took office in 1991. A former public defender and municipal court judge, Bell, who is black, ran as a reformer and pledged to end cash bail, "create a task force to identify factors leading to wrongful convictions" and increase transparency in the system...........

This Saturday, August 11, voters in Hawaii will choose the Democratic nominees — and the likely eventual winners — in highly contested primary elections for governor and Congress.

Hawaii is a solidly blue state and went to Hillary Clinton by more than 30 points in 2016. The victors of Saturday’s Democratic primaries are thus heavily favored to win in November’s general election. That makes the primaries the most competitive elections of the year, and with Hawaii’s long history of volatile and difficult-to-poll primaries, there could be some major surprises.

Don't ask me to start liking her. BTW, she refused to debate her primary opponents, after criticizing several other candidates for doing the same thing. She had the advantage of incumbency, it always helps.

I'm not becoming a fan and never will, but I don't want the seat to go to a Republican, so I'm just shutting up.

_________________-- Tis an ill wind that blows no minds.Malaclypse the Younger

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) claimed that NBC News is attempting to “undermine” her efforts to again become Speaker of the House, after the network reported that at least 50 Democratic candidates wouldn’t back her for the leadership position.

Pelosi responded to the report on MSNBC’s “AM Joy” on Sunday, saying that “NBC has been on a jag of this, this is one of their priorities, to undermine my prospects as Speaker.”

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) claimed that NBC News is attempting to “undermine” her efforts to again become Speaker of the House, after the network reported that at least 50 Democratic candidates wouldn’t back her for the leadership position.

Pelosi responded to the report on MSNBC’s “AM Joy” on Sunday, saying that “NBC has been on a jag of this, this is one of their priorities, to undermine my prospects as Speaker.”

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (Calif.) is moving full steam ahead on a Democratic strategy to paint the GOP as corrupt ahead of the midterm elections, a case that got new legs after the arrest of Rep. Chris Collins (R-N.Y.) on insider trading charges last week.

Pelosi has decided to make ethics a core pillar of House Democrats’ push for the majority this fall, seizing on Collins’s arrest in a way she hasn’t done with past GOP scandals involving Trump administration officials.

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