Short-Term Energy Outlook Feb 12, 2013

Published: February 13, 2013

Short-Term Energy Outlook

February 12, 2012 Release

Highlights

EIA expects that the Brent crude oil spot price, which averaged $112 per barrel in 2012 and rose to $119 per barrel in early February 2013, will average $109 per barrel in 2013 and $101 per barrel in 2014. The projected discount of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil to Brent, which averaged $18 per barrel in 2012, averages $9 per barrel in 2014 as planned new pipeline capacity lowers the cost of moving midcontinent crude oil to the Gulf Coast refining centers.

EIA expects that falling crude prices will contribute to a decline in the national annual average regular gasoline retail price from $3.63 per gallon in 2012 to $3.55 per gallon in 2013 and $3.39 per gallon in 2014, about 11 cents per gallon and 4 cents per gallon higher than forecast in last month’s STEO, respectively. Diesel fuel retail prices averaged $3.97 per gallon during 2012 and are forecast to fall to $3.92 per gallon in 2013 and to $3.82 per gallon in 2014.

EIA estimates U.S. total crude oil production averaged 6.4 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2012, an increase of 0.8 million bbl/d from the previous year. Projected domestic crude oil production continues to increase to 7.3 million bbl/d in 2013 and 7.8 million bbl/d in 2014.

Total U.S. liquid fuels consumption fell from 20.8 million bbl/d in 2005 to 18.6 million bbl/d in 2012. EIA expects total consumption to rise slowly over the next two years to an average of 18.7 million bbl/d in 2014, driven by increases in distillate fuel and liquefied petroleum gas consumption, with mostly flat gasoline and jet fuel consumption.

Natural gas working inventories reached a record-high level in early November 2012, but ended January 2013 at an estimated 2.7 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), about 0.2 Tcf below the level at the same time the previous year. EIA expects the Henry Hub natural gas spot price, which averaged $2.75 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2012, will average $3.53 per MMBtu in 2013 and $3.84 per MMBtu in 2014.