The 2013 draft just got very interesting, as the consensus #1 (Seth Jones) is apparently #4 on the Colorado Avalanche draft list. Is the race that close this year? Math suggests there is a clear option for #1 overall, and the name at the top may surprise.

For several years now the gold standard for projecting junior, college, Euro and minor league stats into the NHL is Desjardins NHLE.

FORWARDS NHLE (per 82gp)

Jonathan Drouin, Halifax (QMJHL) 19-30-49

Sasha Barkov, Tappere Tampere (SM-Liiga) 18-22-40

Elias Lindholm, Brynas (SEL) 15-25-40

Nathan MacKinnon, Halifax (QMJHL) 17-22-39

Max Domi, London (OHL) 15-18-33

Hunter Shinkaruk, Medicine Hat (WHL) 14-19-33

Sean Monahan, Ottawa (OHL) 13-20-33

Anthony Mantha, Val d’or (QMJHL) 17-13-30

Valeri Nichushkin, Chelyabinsk Traktor (KHL) 20-10-30

Adam Erne, Quebec (QMJHL) 9-15-24

DEFENSE NHLE (per 82gp)

Seth Jones, Portland (WHL) 6-17-23

Darnell Nurse, Sault Ste Marie (OHL) 4-11-15

Rasmus Ristolainen, TPS Turku (SM-Liiga) 3-10-13

Jonathan Drouin--most often mentioned as the third in the CHL trio of elite talents in this draft--is in fact the top offensive player available this year. The next three forwards--Barkov, Lindholm and MacKinnon--are all quality offensive players and of course MacKinnon's scouting report (and Barkov's) boast a wider range of skills.

Jones offense from the blue isn't earth shattering (Drew Doughty was 82, 6-23-29 NHLE) but he's right in the same range offensively as guys like Alex Pietrangelo, Zack Bogosian and Michael Del Zotto. Jones has a wide range of skills, so delivering that kind of offense along with all of the other elements makes him an impact prospect.

THE NEW MATH

The other reason Colorado may be going the forward route is history: defensemen taken high in the draft often fail to deliver value, and very often come into their own with their second organization (or later). Even a guy like Chris Pronger--a pure Hall of Famer--did much of his damage after being traded the first time.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

The ugly truth is this: nothing has changed since Jason Gregor talked about defensemen and taking them high in the draft one year ago. No one would trade Nail Yakupov for Ryan Murray today, and the gap is extremely likely to widen moving forward.

It's easier to project forwards into the future, and Colorado is probably making the correct choice in going forward.

Lowetide has been one of the Oilogosphere's shining lights for over a century. You can check him out here at OilersNation and at lowetide.ca. He is also the host of Lowdown with Lowetide weekday mornings 10-noon on TSN 1260.

Jones SHOULD be a great player for years on whatever team drafts him. Gotta pick a forward though. Don't blame Colorado at all. And MITCH, Sherman is still the GM in Colorado, he just doesn't do dick all now that Sakic is above him, and Roy is below him, both doing his job.

I think Oilers have 1 player they want at #7 Sean Monahan and another group they would pick or trade down Lindholm and Nurse depending on return and one last group which they would trade down for Nichushkin.

Hey LT... I do like your info in today's article and it seems to be a good indication by you... that maybe apparently, this may turn out to be a very intiguing/surprising and entertaining draft.

Do you think the Oil should stand on their #7 and stay the course for BPA this yr?...or trade down surely if MacKinnon, Barkov, Nichushkin, Drouin, and jones are gone by the 5th pick? Cause I am wondering about Lindholm, Monahan, Nurse, Ristolainen...

Also, based on Robin Brownlee's great latest article ... (with the good hair humour too lol...) what do you think of the Oilers possibly dealing their #7 to Toronto..if thats the case...and who do ya think the TML prospect coming back could/should be? such as maybe one or two of Biggs, Colborne, McKegg or Reilly..or Gardiner, etc, or another?

Hey LT... I do like your info in today's article and it seems to be a good indication by you... that maybe apparently, this may turn out to be a very intiguing/surprising and entertaining draft.

Do you think the Oil should stand on their #7 and stay the course for BPA this yr?...or trade down surely if MacKinnon, Barkov, Nichushkin, Drouin, and jones are gone by the 5th pick? Cause I am wondering about Lindholm, Monahan, Nurse, Ristolainen...

Also, based on Robin Brownlee's great latest article ... (with the good hair humour too lol...) what do you think of the Oilers possibly dealing their #7 to Toronto..if thats the case...and who do ya think the TML prospect coming back could/should be? such as maybe one or two of Biggs, Colborne, McKegg or Reilly..or Gardiner, etc, or another?

I think the Oilers pick is probably in play based on what MacT said a couple of weeks ago. A big difference between talking and pulling the trigger, though.

I bet there will be at least one surprise above them and then all hell will break loose.

As for Toronto, they've been looking for C help for a long time. Suspect they'd want Barkov or Monahan, no guarantee they're still available at #7.

To Steve...Nice to add to the rumours lol..but...Gags plus the Oilers second 2nd round pick (from Anaheim) makes better sense since if there is an offer sheet in the $3 to #3.5 mil range, and it is accepted...the Kings only get a second rounder anyways.

Now, also, the Kings are bad versus the cap upcoming and so what would they do if Gags wants $4.5 to $5 mil a yr right now???

I don't remember such a confusing draft. It seems as if four to five guys could be drafted #1 overall. It's unfortunate that Edmonton drafts seventh. In the end I hope they either trade that pick for a proven defenseman or trade up for Sasha. I wouldnt mind seeing Nichushkin on a line with Yakupov either.

1. I don't get the love that people have for Bernier. He has yet to show that he is a better goalie than Dubnyk, in fact he has yet to prove conclusively that he is even as good as Dubnyk is. Still, so many would have us gut our organizational depth to get him in an Oilers jersey even though there is still no proof that it would make the Oilers a better team.

2. The Leafs would not do this deal. Maybe in four years, but then there would be no real point to it.

3. Maybe for a year or two, depending on the price. Before you sign him though, go back and watch the last ten minutes of game 7 against Boston. Take a look at the fear and resignation in his eyes. Then ask yourself how much you are willing to pay for that.

4. First of all - sources? Kenopka has had a couple of chances to sign here, but made it clear that he prefers to be out east. Plus he was horrible last season

5. I know Holmgren is silly but he is not that dumb. Never. If you believe it is possible, then don't forget to tell MacTavish how to sell the idea to Holmgren

6. Why would Carolina make that deal? The only way they make that deal is if you throw in the 7th with it. Oh wait, you want to give the 7th away to get that goalie who doesn't necessarily make us better.

Pfffft playoffs indeed. Remember - the idea of a rebuild is to build a team that will make the playoffs every year and at times contend for the cup. Everything you propose here takes us further away from that goal in my opinion.

Not sure about you, but i'm in panic mode already. Feel the only direction that makes sense, is doing whatever possible to move up a few spots, not trading down.

Not sure if this is all posturing and misdirection among GMs, but there appears to be sufficient doubt being raised among the top 8 or so picks that I would (barring a stupid good offer) hang tough to #7 and see what is left at the buffet table. If you can move up ..... Why not?

Bernier has played 62 NHL games. 62. Most games in a season played for him is 25 (which Dubnyk has surpassed 3 times). Bernier career SPG .912, with up and down years and better D in front of him. Dubnyk 139 games and .913 SPG with consistently improved SPG year after year. So you want to bring in a less proven goalie to replace an "unproven goalie"? Bernier's value is only because of the shallow free agent pool this year, but a clever GM realizes this and doesn't spend the farm on him (apparently there are 5 interested teams so one will likely do so). As for the suggestion of an offer sheet, this is a much safer option. Or do it the nice way and just offer a 2nd round draft pick for the guy conditional on signing him. Any team beats this offer, let them have Bernier.

No way anyone in their right mind spends a 1st round pick on Bernier, much less a #7 overall pick and then throws in one of the top D prospects in Gernat.

I am not against trading Gagner but I can think of a thousand better trades involving him that can solve bigger gaps in the roster - like the lack of a top pairing D man. a #2C/W is more important to a team than a #2 goalie. Just ask NYR.

I don't know how the Oilers solve the lack of goalie depth but the only Free Agent who can legitimately challenge Dubnyk for starter is Khudobin. Bernier would be a good #2 with a shot at #1, but Dubnyk would still be favoured in that match-up based on previous experience. Maybe its safer to wait until trade deadline or next year than do something stupid.

Sign horton. trade for D. trade up to 5th if Barkov is there. Sign bickell. sign fistric. sign bickell. with hemsky and horcoff gone you have loads of cap to resign sam and MPS with enough for the rest aswell

Sign horton. trade for D. trade up to 5th if Barkov is there. Sign bickell. sign fistric. sign bickell. with hemsky and horcoff gone you have loads of cap to resign sam and MPS with enough for the rest aswell

Translation: overpay for UFA's who have had a strong Cup run and put the team into cap hell going forward.

Are you aware that the Oilers have to sign RNH, JSchultz, Petry, and Dubnyk next season? Your suggestions do not work.

Take a look at how many players the oilers have signed past this year, and how much cap space they have.

The cap is going up each season, I imagine the cap will increase 5-7 million per year... I'm not sure where teams will spend their cap space on, free agency gets thinner and thinner each year.

I would look to acquire a player like Hiller, Halak, or Luongo to create a strength on the back end. If the newly awcuired goalie thrives and Dubnyk pans out we could have a valuable trade chip on our hands- possibly fill in a top 4 d spot with the depth. Who knows maybe MacT will be asking for a 7th and a 50 point center for Dubnyk this time next year(what a ridiculous offer by Lombardi, I want what he's smoking with my dinner tomorrow)

Translation: overpay for UFA's who have had a strong Cup run and put the team into cap hell going forward.

Are you aware that the Oilers have to sign RNH, JSchultz, Petry, and Dubnyk next season? Your suggestions do not work.

horton and bickell would cost less then hemsky and horcoff who can play first line and second line with big bodies. how would that put us in cap hell if mactavish is willing to bring back hemsky and horcoff if he doesnt get good offers? nick shultz opens up 3.5M for a third pairing and a 4th line center.

Gagner can be traded to bring in piece number 9, and we will need three solid ufa pickups to complete the core 12.

MacT has his work cut out for him, but if he's
Creative this team can take a big step forward. He talks about rewarding fans by bringing in talent, I hope he starts with the goaltending and defence, rather than bottom six(which needs a complete overhaul as well).

Lowetide--completely off topic, but I just want to share with your readers. Today at lunch, Kelly Bucburger was having lunch at Earls. When he was asked if there was any news he said there are big changes in the works, and that he will be returning behind the bench to start the new season. This might piss off some of us, (myself included), as we were looking for wholesale changes with the coaching staff. He didn't say anything when he was asked about Steve Smith. The person that spoke to him was my husbands business partner.

Check out cap geek theres 15m with just sam gagner and MPS as RFA trade away Nick Hemsky and Horcoff in packages and deals and buyout belanger. you got about 30m in space. No way oilers have cap problems.
Horton-Nuge-Ebs Hall-Sam-Yak MPS-Barkov-Bickell Brown-Lapierre-Smyth Jeff petry-(top 4 D). Smid-J Schultz Belov-Fistric/Potter
You can have that line up and be perfectly fine. or you can change it up a little bit maybe make a trade for JayBo and have a good scoring 4th line instead of 1 with 2 fighters on it.

Yes...If N.Schultz, Hemsky and Horcoff are traded, plus Belanger bought out, then that adds to about $15 mil extra in cap space this year before getting more players and re-signing Gagner and Paajarvi.

I think the Oil will go for Bernier or Khudobin for as the other type 1A goalie with Dubnyk...which can't be too much complained of yet... due to that both are still pretty young with high end potential.. and either should be quite better/healthier than Khabby was... and also, at only about the $3 mil per year range...say three to four years.

MPS will be at about $1.5 per yr at say two/three yrs...but Gagner becomes the screwed deal cause he wants likely about $4.5 to $5 mil a yr or be a UFA next season. He has to be tradeable now this summer, IMO.

The Oil are gonna sign both RNH (I think about $6 mil a yr) and J. Schultz (I think $4 mil a yr to $4.5) to new long term contracts this year at high end type money like Hall/Ebs, so that's another reason Gagner goes in a packaged type trade...for a defenceman.

This is why I think the Oil pick a centre at $7 with one of Lindholm, Monahan or even Horvat. The other Oiler needed centre will be a UFA/traded for vet at about 28 to 31 yrs old for the 3rd line. Same with the fourth line or...Lander slides in there with strong play at training camp.

I see Bickell, Stalberg, Horton and/or Gordon being offered a four yr type deal...if any have not yet resigned with their clubs.

So there goes the extra $13 to $15 mil per yr in my mind. But stil...there is still quite a bit of cap space to do all of the above aside from RNH, MPS, Schultz signings... so as to also go get a top #3 to #4 defenceman...maybe a #2...(hoping)

1. I don't get the love that people have for Bernier. He has yet to show that he is a better goalie than Dubnyk, in fact he has yet to prove conclusively that he is even as good as Dubnyk is. Still, so many would have us gut our organizational depth to get him in an Oilers jersey even though there is still no proof that it would make the Oilers a better team.

2. The Leafs would not do this deal. Maybe in four years, but then there would be no real point to it.

3. Maybe for a year or two, depending on the price. Before you sign him though, go back and watch the last ten minutes of game 7 against Boston. Take a look at the fear and resignation in his eyes. Then ask yourself how much you are willing to pay for that.

4. First of all - sources? Kenopka has had a couple of chances to sign here, but made it clear that he prefers to be out east. Plus he was horrible last season

5. I know Holmgren is silly but he is not that dumb. Never. If you believe it is possible, then don't forget to tell MacTavish how to sell the idea to Holmgren

6. Why would Carolina make that deal? The only way they make that deal is if you throw in the 7th with it. Oh wait, you want to give the 7th away to get that goalie who doesn't necessarily make us better.

Pfffft playoffs indeed. Remember - the idea of a rebuild is to build a team that will make the playoffs every year and at times contend for the cup. Everything you propose here takes us further away from that goal in my opinion.

When does it stop being a rebuild and start being incompetence!
In my opinion a rebuild is not doing lousy and drafting high.
A rebuild takes time I agree but the uselessness of the management
is on display! hopefully macT can pull them together via trades and
put together some winning seasons. It's hard enough to bring in talent.
I would hate to see the state of things if they bungle this "rebuild".
(Wich is goin into its 4th year!) how many chances to blow it does
Lowe get because of his rings as a player? His success as management
Has been mediocre at best

Lowetide--completely off topic, but I just want to share with your readers. Today at lunch, Kelly Bucburger was having lunch at Earls. When he was asked if there was any news he said there are big changes in the works, and that he will be returning behind the bench to start the new season. This might piss off some of us, (myself included), as we were looking for wholesale changes with the coaching staff. He didn't say anything when he was asked about Steve Smith. The person that spoke to him was my husbands business partner.

Jones got lit up like a Christmas tree by MacKinnon and Droiun . Project him getting lit up in NHL as well . He could drop to 5th or sixth. Offensive talents the caliber of the two above , Nicushkin , Lindholm and Barkov are tough to ignor and could all be NHL ready . Defensively only Jones and Ristolainen will maybe be NHL ready . Nurse will be a project - don't expect to see him as an NHL starter next year . Nicushkin may very well go top 3 ,Barkov 4 and Lindholm or Jones 5th .