NHC Atlantic Outlook (Sun, 07 Jun 2020)
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2020
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Cristobal, centered over the central Gulf of Mexico.
1. An area of low pressure is expected to form along a cold front a few
hundred miles east or northeast of Bermuda by the middle of next
week. Some slight development of this system will be possible for a
day or two after that while the system meanders over the western
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Forecaster Zelinsky
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Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur Discussion Number 12 (Tue, 19 May 2020)
000
WTNT41 KNHC 191446
TCDAT1
Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020
1100 AM AST Tue May 19 2020
Arthur has transitioned into an extratropical low this morning with
a warm front extending northeastward from the circulation, any deep
convection only along the front, and lots of more stable cumulus
clouds near the center. Thus this is the last advisory. The
initial intensity remains 50 kt based on continuity and model
analyses.
The main adjustments to the previous forecast include a quicker
dissipation of the post-tropical cyclone, somewhat linked to the
models showing a faster weakening after 12 hours, and a
continuation of the westward shift in the track forecast in a day
or two. These changes are consistent with the latest model
consensus for track and similar to a GFS/ECMWF blend for intensity.
Dangerous coastal surf conditions and rip currents are expected to
continue along portions of the mid-Atlantic and southeast U.S.
coasts during the next couple of days. See products from your local
National Weather Service Forecast Office for more details.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/1500Z 36.8N 68.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 20/0000Z 36.4N 66.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 20/1200Z 35.2N 65.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 21/0000Z 33.6N 65.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 21/1200Z 32.0N 64.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Blake
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SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 265 (Sat, 06 Jun 2020)
WW 265 SEVERE TSTM ND SD 070210Z - 070900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 265
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
910 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2020
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
much of North Dakota
eastern South Dakota
* Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 910 PM
until 400 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Widespread damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A band of severe thunderstorms -- producing widespread
damaging winds -- will continue advancing rapidly northeastward
across the Dakotas tonight. In addition to the damaging wind
threat, hail will also be possible as storms progress across the
watch area.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 100
statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles north
northwest of Williston ND to 35 miles east northeast of Aberdeen SD.
For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch
outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 264...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
24050.
...Goss
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