Tuesday, May 24, 2011

Washington says no thanks to Kucinich

-There's been a lot of discussion about the possibility of Dennis Kucinich moving to Washington and running for office there next year but there's just one little problem- voters there don't want him to, not even Democrats. Part of that's because he's not popular in the state with only 19% of voters rating him favorable to 28% with a negative opinion of him. But the numbers on a potential candidacy for him are worse than the favorability spread- only 12% think he should seek office in the state next year to 39% opposed to the concept.

Even among Democrats, who like Kucinich by a 33/19 margin, just 22% think he should run there next year to 35% who dissent. It really doesn't matter whether Kucinich moves to Washington or not, he's not going to get elected there next year.

-Someone else who's not going to get elected in Washington, next year or probably ever? That would be Dino Rossi. 58% of voters in the state say he should not seek office again in the future to only 32% who think he should put his name in the hat again. 64% of Republicans say they'd like him to make another bid, but Democrats are a lot stronger in their opposition to the concept at 88% and independents split 56/33 against another Rossi bid as well. You could say he's worn out his welcome but his losing streak makes it clear he wasn't that welcome in the first place.

-By a 47/46 margin Washington voters continue to say that they oppose President Obama's health care plan from last year. This is the first time in eons we've polled on health care but we did here because Republican Attorney General and likely 2012 Gubernatorial nominee Rob McKenna joined in the federal health care lawsuit last year. There's been some thought that action could really hurt his prospects next year but these numbers suggest that's not the case- his actions on health care probably won't really help or hinder him given how closely divided the state's voters are on the issue.

-Washington voters narrowly think same sex marriage should be legal, by a 48/46 margin. As everywhere this is very much a generational issue. Voters under 30 are strongly supportive of gay marriage at 57/39 while senior citizens are opposed to it by a 49/39 spread. Middle aged voters fall in between but slightly on the side of gay marriage being legal. The divide along age lines means support for gay marriage in the state will just keep on continuing to grow.

-Finally Patty Murray's approval numbers in the wake of her reelection are far better than we ever found them last year. 50% of voters approve of her to 42% who disapprove.

Not sure whether a Democratic firm would risk embarrassing Obama, but it would be fascinating to see how Benjamin Netanyahu (who graduated from a Philadelphia high school & earned his B.S. and M.S. in Boston at MIT) would fare as a Republican candidate vs. the president.

With the overwhelmingly supportive response from Congress to the Israeli prime minister's address this morning, it's more likely the Constitution would be amended to allow the Israeli-born Netanyahu to run than the remote possibility of Charlie Sheen or Dennis Kucinich ever becoming president.

Rossi blew his chance when he chose not to run against Cantwell in 2006. Cantwell was one of the few Democrats who could have lost that year, and Rossi was one of the few Republicans who could have made it happen. Rossi's loss to Gregoire in recounts in 2004 was controversial, and he would have gotten the sympathy vote from a lot of people.

Instead he chose to wait for a 2008 gubernatorial grudge match against Gregoire, which he lost. Any sympathy over 2004 had worn off by then, plus Barack Obama was on the ballot.

Rossi's heart didn't really seem to be in it when he ran against Murray in 2010. Murray was also much stronger than Cantwell had been in 2006. Again, he picked the wrong Senator to run against.

Moving towards 2012, Cantwell is much more popular than she was in 2006, meaning Rossi lost his one chance to beat her. Also, Rossi is much less popular than he was in 2006--eight years and three strikes later after 2004, the sympathy vote is gone, and any hope he had of building enthusiasm is gone.

Or in other words, 72% support some sort of recognition for gay couples. It's pretty easy to see how many of those who support civil unions would rather have gay marriage instead of gay couples being left entirely in the cold.

Seriously, Netanyahu? Bear in mind that members of Congress are going to give a warm welcome to any Israeli PM because they know they'll be attacked as 'anti-Israel' if they give him anything less than wild cheers. Most Americans couldn't care less about him, but the ones who do care a lot - so for the sake of that minority of Americans, Congresscritters make a big show of applause. If you want to know how average people felt about the speech, try asking a random sample. The vast majority would say "Who?" even if you showed them a clip of the video first.

Um Kevin, I think you miss the point. This poll (PPP's) shows that 44% want gay marriage to stay illegal. That doesn't jive with your reasoning. I think what PPP has found is the left-leaning Washington is evenly split on gay marriage which in political reality likely means that most are still against it.