Tuesday, October 10, 2006

ALCS Pick: Tigers or A's?

Ack, I'm torn: On the one hand, I'm all-consumed with seeing my A's-Mets World Series prediction (from APRIL!) come true. On the other hand, I'm rooting for the Tigers' rags-to-riches story -- and sensing eerie similarities between these Tigers and last year's White Sox.

unless the "all-consuming" part involves some monetary wager you might have made, you don't have to stick to A's-Mets.

However, it's not a bad pick to begin with. I'm really curious to see if Detroit can come back to earth after the Yankees elimination. (The '05 Angels were the only Yankee-eliminators not to win the WS this decade.)

Neither team *looks* scary, and yet they go out and win a lot more nights than not. I think that's why most are expecting this series to go the distance. I think the Tigers actually steamroll in five, but just because it's such a NON-obvious pick.

Dan, I am not sure about the let down from beating the Yankees but I hope Jim Leyland won't let it happne. Nate Roberstson vs Barry Zito in the first game I definatly give the advantage to Zito but I expect the youngsters (Verlander, Zumaya, Bonderman) to carry the Tigers in the subsequent games. In all honesty I don't know much about the A's except that Frank Thomas is exacting his vegence which can be dangerous since this may be a pitcher's series. Lastly I am a huge Tigers fan so I think it will be the Tigers in 5.

it's all about the team with the most mojo. in 02 - it was the angles (rally monkey) in 04 - it was the red sox (obvious reasons) in 05 - it was white sox (no one believes in us, etc)in 06 -- it's the tigers, with gum time, and the need to prove everyone wrong.

I think they could drop game 1 because Zito is such a junk-ball pitcher and the Tigers aren't exactly known for plate discipline (though they showed a lot during the Yanks series).

I think Verlander shuts down Oakland in Game 2.

Then Detroit comes home to Comerica. Did you see how insane that crowd was against the Yanks? It's going to be even more lively (if possible) this series. It's going to be tough to beat the Tigers with that crowd.

I'm going off the age-old theory here that everytime a team doesn't make the playoffs for at least 12 years then comes in and upsets the Yankees in the LDS, then in the LCS takes on the winner of a series between the Twins and A's... said team will defeat the A's or Twins in 5 games.

This situation has happened once (the 2002 Angels), so it's a lock-tight guarantee it happens again this year.

the hot hand? the a's swept, the tigers won in 4. the tigers stumbled into the playoffs, the a's breezed right in. how are the tigers the hot ones? yeah they beat the yanks so what? the a's AA team probably has a better pitching staff than the yanks

I dont think Detroit is so much a hot hand... they beat a weak and defeated Yankees team, remember Detroit did blow a nice lead in the central to end up with the Wild Card, while the A's shut down the hottest team in baseball and the trendy WS pick.

"it's all about the team with the most mojo.in 02 - it was the angles (rally monkey)"

Angles? Is their mascot a cube?

Anywho, this postseason is blowing my mind. One of these four teams will win the World Series: Tigers, Cards, As or the Mets. it's kind of odd that all of these teams last WS wins were in the 80s. I'm rooting for the Tigers (tigers fan since birth), but it's going to be interesting to see how these next two series shapes up.

Lots of interesting opinions as to why the Tigers will win this series. So...let's denounce them.

A) Tigers pitchers are ALL inexperienced in this area. Their first trip to the playoffs in quite a while and frankly, not one of them other than Rogers showed that they had the endurance to go very deep into any game.

B) The A's staff is well rested after sweeping the Twins, has post season experience and, unlike the Yanks entire rotation, does not rely on a fastball to get people out.

C) I'll give detroit a more reliable line-up, as long as someone is throwing it straight and over the plate, but the A's line-up has proven to be patient taking out a better rotation in a straight sweep in the ALDS.

D) As for jeff rogers comment about crowd noise...are you serious?! Do you honestly think that the crowd in an OUTDOOR stadium will be worse than a sold out Hubert J. Humphrey Metrodome? That's got to be the worst argument I've heard yet for a Tigers victory.

E) Bullpen...yet again, not a single pitcher in the A's pen relies on a fastball. And to be honest, who else wants to see how far Frank Thomas parks a Zumaya fastball? Those of us in Oakland are hoping for somewhere in Mount Davis.

So...we have even teams in defense, even teams in line-up due to pitching match-ups, A's with experience, and Detroit with Kenny Rogers.

Tigers in 6. The A's didn't get hot for the ALDS, the Twins became the Manila Folders. The Tigers beat one of the top 3 teams in the MLB.

But whoever wins the ALCS wins the World Series. Hopefully. I'm not ready to hear about how another NY team has become America's team by winning it all, or how St. Louis supposedly (and incorrectly) has the "best fans" in the major league.

Lets see if any world series winner gets treated like the White Sox last year, who didn't even get a cover of Sports Illustrated when they finished off the Astros. SI's comment on that was the Peyton/Brady showdown was "more important" *rolls eyes*.

A. Bonderman got into the 9th in Game 4. And with reliable bullpenners in Zumaya and (to a lesser extent) Jones, Detroit's not looking for complete games every time out.

B. Both staffs are rested enough, when you have 2 or more off-days before the next series starts. Will Harden's arm be okay, no matter how much rest he's had?

C. Good point on Detroit's more free-swinging ways....can they be patient?

D. The question isn't whether Oakland can handle playing in Detroit compared to how it did in Minny....it's how a young Detroit is going to benefit from a suddenly rabidized fan base. So it's not a negative against Oakland, it's just a positive for Detroit.

E. Detroit could easily pitch around Thomas. And Street's not exactly a junkballer. (That's a good thing, though...nobody wants their closer nibbling.)

I could easily say, Oakland got fat feeding on Seattle all year. But they do seem more likely to win 4-2 games than Detroit, I'll say that. If they can pitch, they can scratch out 4 wins, certainly.

There are a few things wrong with what you said. The A's pitchers have one extra day of rest, actually the pitchers in Game 1 pitched on the same day last week, so there is no rest advantage.

You said that the A's don't rely on fastballs to get outs... neither do the Yankees. Here are the "out pitches" for the first three Yankees starters:Wang - sinkerMussina - knuckle-curveJohnson - slider

Obviously you weren't there at the Tigers games. It was electric. And I said nothing of noise, only of energy.

You are telling me that you would take the A's bullpen over the Tigers? Both closers are nail-biters, but the middle relief of Detroit has been the best in the AL all year long. I'm taking the Tigers.

Did you see the Tigers' celebration after winning the division series? It was as big of a spectacle as if they won the World Series. They are emotionally spent and satisfied, and have no shot in the ALCS.

Dan, you should have stuck with the A's. Now, not only will you have picked the loser in the ALCS, but you won't be able to brag about picking a Mets-A's World Series. You abandoned your choice, and now you can't claim the spoils if your preseason prediction works out.

Apparently the Tigers really were just resting their swinging muscles for the month of September, they're still patient enough to wait through junk to drill the good stuff, and sometimes-considered-ineffective youngster Nate Robertson can go deep enough for a huge road W.

And after a big game from Nate (and a real gem from Zito), with Verlander coming up, then two guys who delivered bigtime last week, I wonder if anyone is still prepared to suggest that the A's have a pitching edge in this series, or that the Tigers are cruising into a letdown.

~4 items down in this Elias Says article over on espn.com, there's a story about an effective Jim Leyland trip to the mound. I just wanted to mention that this happens all the time around here. I think a lot of people in Detroit felt just fine about a 2-on, no-out jam, as soon as Leyland trotted out there.

So whoever ripped JL in the Torre discussion... whatever it is that a manager needs to have to make players play their best, Leyland has it.

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