COMMENTARY No. 55

a CANADIAN
SECURITY INTELLIGENCE SERVICE publication

SUMMARIES OF COMMENTARY ISSUES (#37-55)

March 1995

Unclassified

Editors Note:

Once again we are pleased to provide our readers with summaries of all
recent COMMENTARY issues. Requests for further information or for back issues
should be addressed to: Editor, Commentary, c/o CSIS, P.O. Box 9732,
Station "T", Ottawa, Ontario K1G 4G4.

Disclaimer: Publication of an article in the COMMENTARY
series does not imply CSIS authentication of the information nor CSIS
endorsement of the author's views.

ISSUE No. 55: SUMMARIES OF COMMENTARY ISSUES (#37-55)

March 1995

ISSUE No. 54: SOUTH AFRICA: AN INTERIM REPORT

Approximately one year ago, Commentary #44 dealt with the challenges
facing a new, post-apartheid South Africa; and concluded with a prognosis of
cautious optimism. As South Africa approaches the first anniversary of the
dramatic events that culminated in the election of the Mandela Government of
National Unity, we once again welcome the authors' views in this interim report.
March 1995. Authors: Mr. Duncan Edmonds & Mr. Allister Sparks

ISSUE No. 53: TERRORISM: MOTIVATIONS AND CAUSES

In this issue, the author comments on post-Cold War terrorism in general and
puts forth some very specific views on terrorism in the Middle East, threats
from the extreme right, and issue-specific terrorism. He concludes with five
principles "which have the best track record in reducing terrorism".
January 1995. Author: Mr. Paul Wilkinson

ISSUE No. 52: MEXICO: PROGNOSIS FOR STABILITY

Chiapas, NAFTA, Colosio, Zedillo, Zapatista  all names that have
recently entered the international lexicon during an extraordinary year in
Mexico's history. And to the questions of political stability which these terms
raise is added the urgent issue of economic stability, following the dramatic
devaluation of the peso in recent weeks, and the hastily arranged $18 billion
line of credit offered to Mexico as part of a plan to deal with its economic
crisis. The author puts these events in context, and ventures both political
and economic predictions for the near future. December 1994. Author: An
analyst in the Analysis & Production Branch of CSIS

ISSUE No. 51: SITUATION AND FUTURE OF THE EUROPEAN SECURITY
ARCHITECTURE

The fact that the horror of open warfare has continued for over five years
in what was Yugoslavia cannot be explained away by the facile notion that
long-suppressed ethnic tensions finally erupted when the Soviet Union collapsed.
As the author of this month's Commentary points out, a principal reason
for the failure to halt, if not avert, the war may have been the lack of an
agreement amongst the major powers as to what constitutes a new European
security architecture. March 1995. Author: Mr. Christopher Anstis

ISSUE No. 50: PEOPLES AGAINST STATES: ETHNOPOLITICAL CONFLICT AND THE
CHANGING WORLD SYSTEM

One of the main concerns of this issue of Commentary is to provide a
coherent explanation for the "apparent explosion of conflicts centered on
ethnicity" , particularly since the end of the Cold War. One theory holds
that "tribal" conflicts are a sudden release of those previously held
in check during the bi-polar superpower tensions of the last 40 years; another,
that "ethnic identities are perhaps more fundamental and persistent than
loyalties to larger social units". Readers will perhaps be surprised at
Dr. Gurr's conclusions not only as to the causes, but also the venues and the
solutions to these conflicts. November 1994. Author: Dr. Ted Robert Gurr
(Presidential Address to the International Studies Association Annual
Meeting held on 1 April 1994 in Washington, D.C., reproduced here with the kind
permission of the author and the editors of International Studies Quarterly.)

ISSUE No. 49: MIDDLE EAST PEACE? (II)

One year after the historic "Declaration of Principles" was signed
in Washington, current developments in the Middle East continue to dominate the
headlines and of course, the hearts and minds of millions of inhabitants of that
region. The author provides a context for these recent events, and outlines
three major hurdles still facing the peace process. October 1994. Author:
Dr. William Millward

The political and economic uncertainty that prevails today in all the
republics of the former Soviet Union has provided auspicious conditions for
crime proliferation. It is not surprising, therefore, that organized crime has
become an increasingly severe and pervasive problem, particularly in the Russian
Federation, the largest of the successor republics. Some of this activity is
now spilling into Western Europe and North America, where Canada is not immune.
September 1994. Authors: Dr. Leonid Maximenkov & Mr. C. Namiesniowski

ISSUE No. 47: THE ENVIRONMENT AND CHANGING CONCEPTS OF SECURITY

Environmental concerns have gone well past the status of being just another "issue"
among many that compete for daily media attention. The environment, as one
commentator put it bluntly, is where we live. In this months Commentary,
the author draws attention to the ominous fact that environmental issues have
also entered "the list of threats to national and international security"
and are now "central factors in a self-sustaining cycle of impoverishment,
repression and mass movement" . The author concludes with some examples of
how international mechanisms and traditional "intelligence" may be
brought to bear on an increasingly global problem. August 1994. Author:
Mr. Berel Rodal

ISSUE No. 46: ECONOMIC ESPIONAGE (II)

In his second and final paper in a series, the author moves the discussion
of economic espionage forward from his earlier Commentary #32, and
provides an overview and analysis of the current state of the debate on economic
espionage. July 1994. Author: Mr. Samuel Porteous

ISSUE No. 45: INTELLIGENCE AND POLICY: WHAT IS CONSTANT? WHAT IS
CHANGING

The relationship between intelligence and policy can elicit different
answers, depending on how the question is posed: How, traditionally, has the
government made use of intelligence? How does it use intelligence now? How
should it use intelligence? Particularly since the end of the Cold War, Western
democracies and their intelligence services have been carefully re-examining the
question in all its forms. June 1994. Author: Mr. Blair Seaborn

ISSUE No. 44: SOUTH AFRICA: THE REAL THREAT TO SUSTAINABLE DEMOCRACY

In February 1990, F. W. de Klerk made a dramatic announcement to South
Africa's parliament that symbolized for racism what the fall of the Berlin Wall
meant for communism: Nelson Mandela was to be released; the African National
Congress would be legalized; and the government would begin negotiations leading
to a national constitution with equal rights for all South Africans. What is not
generally known is that for years prior to his announcement, the South African
government had been carefully and secretly discussing the power-sharing
arrangements with Mr. Mandela, in preparation for his eventual release. We have
recently witnessed the initial results of this remarkable, negotiated
revolution. In this issue, the author outlines a number of difficult challenges
to President Mandela's new government. May 1994. Author: Mr. Duncan
Edmonds

ISSUE No. 43: IMMIGRATION BY SEA TO NORTH AMERICA: MORE GOLDEN
VENTURES ?

A number of factors combine in any assessment of potential Chinese
immigration to North America: current economic and social conditions in China;
the recent massive internal migration from the rural to the coastal regions;
uncertain political succession; and post-1997 Hong Kong are among those
discussed below. In particular, the author examines illegal immigration by sea
as an indication of the growing desperation of thousands of Chinese. April
1994. Author: Mr. Paul George

ISSUE No. 42: CHINA IN TRANSITION

Developments in modern China can be characterized in three ways: enormous,
contradictory and rapid. Numerous peasant revolts, a rising crime rate, an
inequitable tax system and uncertain political succession after Deng Xiaoping
all constitute sources of significant potential instability. Yet China's recent
economic advances have been spectacular, due in part to the impressive behaviour
of private enterprise initiatives in the villages and townships. An enormous
labour pool has led to increased foreign exports, and China's trade balances are
improving, particularly with the West. As the author here points out, we are
witnessing at once an industrial revolution of unparalleled proportions, the
emergence of a so-called socialist/market economy and the release of forces in
the civilian society that the current régime is finding very difficult to
control. April 1994. Author: An analyst in the Analysis and Production
Branch of CSIS

ISSUE No. 41: RUSSIA - AN ODYSSEY OF CHANGE

Nine years after Mikhail Gorbachev came to power in the former Soviet Union
(March 1985) and released the genies of glasnost and perestroika,
his successor, Boris Yeltsin, finds himself struggling to contain other forces
he himself released (some from prison), and is facing another spectre in the
form of an extreme nationalist. As the author points out, the search is far
from over, as a broad, domestic consensus on the future of the Russian State has
yet to form. March 1994. Author: Mr. Conrad Namiesniowski

The balance  if it can be called that  between the IRA's
constitutional goals of "revolutionary armed struggle" and political
actions has tipped dramatically during the last decade in favour of the former.
This is especially true where Irish Republican terrorism "out-of-theatre"
is concerned; ie., the conduct of terrorist operations in the UK and Europe.
The author explores the recent history of this phenomenon and provides a
detailed account of this latest phase of Republican terrorism: the "Armalite
and the Ballot Box" . February 1994. Author: An analyst with the
Analysis and Production Branch of CSIS.

ISSUE No. 39: LEADERSHIP IN THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC AND THE HIERARCHY OF
SHI'A ISLAM

Since the author first dealt with the leadership structures in Iran (Commentary
#20, April 1992), a number of forces, and a number of deaths among the senior
ranks, prompt a closer look at the hierarchy of power in Iran. The departure of
the old guard raises central questions not only of succession, but of who
decides. January 1994. Author: Dr. William Millward

ISSUE No. 38: CRIME AND MIGRATION IN EASTERN EUROPE

The wave of immigration from the former Soviet Bloc westward since 1991 is a
relatively unknown phenomenon in North America. However, as the author points
out, in 1992 alone "about six million people were displaced or prone to
migrate from Eastern Europe" . Where they go, how they get there, and the
problems created by this unprecedented mobility form the themes of this issue of
Commentary. January 1994. Authors: Dr. Allan Kagedan & Dr.
Opalski

ISSUE No. 37: EQUITY AND NATIONAL SECURITY

This is the second in a continuing series on the relationship between the
broad concept of national security and a nations economy - a relationship which,
as the author points out, attracted little attention in North America until
recently. In this issue, the author focuses on a particularly controversial
aspect of economic security  "equity"  and examines
security implications stemming from the economic crisis facing the developed
world. December 1993. Author: Mr. Samuel Porteous

The views expressed herein are those of the author, who may be contacted by
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