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Monday, October 18, 2010

GOP Maintains Huge Lead Among Likely Voters

So much for the myth that Democrat enthusiasm is improving. Despite nonstop campaigning by Obama, the GOP still has a commanding 17-point edge among likely voters two weeks out from election day. How's that Chamber of Commerce smear working out?

The latest results are from Gallup polling conducted the past two weekends, Oct. 7-10 and Oct. 14-17, and based on interviews with more than 2,700 registered voters and more than 1,900 likely voters.

For Republicans to lead, or even be at parity with Democrats, on the generic congressional ballot indicates they are in a good position to win a majority of House seats in the upcoming elections. This is because of Republicans' typical advantage in voter turnout, which in recent years has given that party an average five-point boost in support on Election Day.

If the elections were held today and roughly 40% of voters turned out -- a rate typical in recent years -- Gallup's Oct. 7-17 polling suggests Republicans would win 56% of the vote -- 8 points greater than their support from registered voters, and 17 points ahead of Democrats, at 39%. If turnout is significantly higher, Republicans would receive 53% of the vote (a 5-point improvement over their registered-voter figure), and the Democrats, 42%.

I do expect a higher turnout this year, but not from depressed Democrats. Independents are moving overwhelming toward the GOP and for an off-year, expect what I like to call Broken Glass Republicans to come out in droves. That is, the folks who will crawl over broken glass to cast their vote against Obama, Reid and Pelosi.

The poll suggests that the GOP is poised to make large inroads on the Democrats' majorities in Congress on Nov. 2. Democrats have claimed that they have made progress in terms of voter enthusiasm over the past few weeks, with President Obama headlining heavily-attended rallies in key states to rally support among young voters.

But Democrats have failed to make up ground overall against Republicans in the poll, which is considered a bellwether of the outcome on Election Day.