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Monday, 11 June 2012

June Outlook

Forecast for the next little while...We will be receiving some relief from the current heat across eastern Canada with the cool front moving through tonight into tomorrow morning. A refreshing airmass will be welcomed... High's will not be that much lower for the beginning of this week although they will be ranging in the low to mid twenties for most of us.

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Departures from normal Tomorrow to Thursday from left to right:

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Towards the end of the week and continuing into the beginning of the forth week of june is a very strong ridge over the eastern part of the country. This ridge will be followed by a breif cool down and then another ridge continuing into the beginning of July. Ridge still easily maintained at 192 hours...

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As we get further out to tuesday the 26th a trough gets established in the eastern part of the country causing a cool down for the last part of june. GFS ensembles at 360.

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Canadian has the same idea going out to 360 hours with a trough in the east and the west and a ridge in the central u.s.

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We are going into an increasingly dry pattern as the El Nino is coming on and pushing the storm track further south.As far as the tropics go there will be an area of low pressure forming off the north Carolina coast that will then retrograde south west and try to hit South Carolina or Georgia.

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This combined with the recent slug of moisture that worked its way into the Southeast is showing us that an El Nino like pattern is setting up with more dryness up to the North (Ontario) and wetness across the Southeast. The recent rainfall from Beryl and the latest low pressure system have helped to relieve the drought down in southern areas of florida which is much needed although the north stays dry.

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The GFS is hinting at more tropical development for texas and the gulf coast at hour 300 due to lower shear shaping up in the western gulf along with a trough forming in that area under the big ridge building over the east. But you have to remember that this is just one off run of the operational 06z GFS which isn't even shown on the latest 12z GFS. I would say its nothing to worry about yet unless we see more consistency on the modelling. It is definitely something to watch out for in the el nino pattern that we are in which favours troughs in the east or gulf/caribbean which helps to produce homegrown development frequently near the U.S coastline.

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We can see the cool in the East for the start of June and the wetness in the Southeast. Warmer in the central part of the continent.

I am expecting severe weather to continue to level off after having the fastest start to the tornado season ever we are now down to about the normal point. This makes sense because 400mb temperatures have been warmer lately limiting the cold punch troughs can pack. This causes less of a clash between cold and warm and less severe weather overall.

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