Econocasts

Sunday, August 18, 2013

Here is the silver cycle update which includes the infamous z-score, measuring how far the prediction deviated from the actual price. The lines above and below the "0" on the right represent the variance from the mean in SD units from -5 to 5. The ovals show the last time since 2010 silver prices exhibited such anomalous behavior with respect to the model prediction, with a z-score < -4. This was very quickly followed by a reversion to the mean. Inasmuch as the silver cycle model has otherwise been relatively accurate, the message from a cyclical model point of view is that the current rise in silver prices will not be sustained. On a completely different note, I hope some readers had a chance to catch the latest heavenly performance art in the form of the Perseid meteor shower last weekend.