Overton, if you can, please do the math to figure out the undecideds before you put them in the poll database. This goes for everyone, but I mention it to you specificly since you are our biggest poll poster.

With New Jersey voters the way they are, a 5-point lead can very easily turn into a loss with 17% undecided.

It's huge b/c it gives momentum to Kean heading into Labor Day, and if he has momentum he could use it. The more important part than the 5 point lead is the 11 point swing from last month. Menendez is incredible danger, and Kean is definetly the favorite now.

With New Jersey voters the way they are, a 5-point lead can very easily turn into a loss with 17% undecided.

It's huge b/c it gives momentum to Kean heading into Labor Day, and if he has momentum he could use it. The more important part than the 5 point lead is the 11 point swing from last month. Menendez is incredible danger, and Kean is definetly the favorite now.

Momentum is overrated. The people who pay attention to the polls generally aren't going to be all that swayed by "momentum" anyway. If momentum was exponential, a candidate that pulled ahead would never lose.

He did say he was becoming, not that he was the most endangered incumbent.

Well he isn't even remotely close to the position Rick Santorum is in.

If you throw out the Gallup, which currently screams outlier, he is not terribly far from Santorum. He is sslightly closer and has the benefit of having had the lead recently.

I now have Washington, Minnesota and Maryland in the Leans Democratic column. Michigan is rated as Likely Democratic.

New Jersey is now in my pure tossup/tilt GOP column. Governor Corzine only picked Menendez because Menendez had a huge financial warchest.If Menendez is leading in the polls a week into his massive ad buy, Kean will win. In other words, if Kean is leading in October, this races is over.

He did say he was becoming, not that he was the most endangered incumbent.

Well he isn't even remotely close to the position Rick Santorum is in.

If you throw out the Gallup, which currently screams outlier, he is not terribly far from Santorum. He is sslightly closer and has the benefit of having had the lead recently.

I now have Washington, Minnesota and Maryland in the Leans Democratic column. Michigan is rated as Likely Democratic.

New Jersey is now in my pure tossup/tilt GOP column. Governor Corzine only picked Menendez because Menendez had a huge financial warchest.If Menendez is leading in the polls a week into his massive ad buy, Kean will win. In other words, if Kean is leading in October, this races is over.

Good to see some Dems aren't so blinded by partisanship that when multiple polls show huge swings toward Kean Menendez is no longer the favorite.

I think I need to post my 25+ reasons when Kean will win because I've posted them all seperatley and Dems just blow them off. To say Menendez is still ahead in this race, well that is true blind partisanship.

Menendez is the anti-Mike DeWine in the greatest sense:

What do they have in common?They are both being killed by incredibly popular governorsThe state government is fairly splitThe state has been moving toward the center in recent yearsHave negative approval ratings

HERE IS IT!!This poll is huge, gives Kean a lot of momentum heading into Labor Day and his father is coming out soon.

This polls is exactly whats been happening for the entire race. Menendez will lead like 75% of the polls in one month and be up by like 5 and then the next month he'll win 75% of the polls again and then Kean will have a poll where he has a healthier lead. Look at the poll history. It's weird.

With New Jersey voters the way they are, a 5-point lead can very easily turn into a loss with 17% undecided.

It's huge b/c it gives momentum to Kean heading into Labor Day, and if he has momentum he could use it. The more important part than the 5 point lead is the 11 point swing from last month. Menendez is incredible danger, and Kean is definetly the favorite now.

Kean is def not the favorite but neither is Menendez. However Menendez is the favored candidate, not the favorite.

Also, Menendez has very low name recognition and Kean has high recognition. Menendez hasnt aired any commercials yet. He can only go up once the commercials come out and people find out who their candidate is. This seat will hold democratic and you'll just have to live with this "scumbag" in the Senate. Oh and name the last scumbag we elected to the senate? Torricelli and thats it. Besides even though he was corrupt it still doesnt make up for the scum in other places. I'll address that in a bit.