Figure 1.

Baseline scenario, no vaccination (R0, max = 1.5 and GI = 2). Dynamics of the pandemic starting from Mexico City, in late March 2009, in the absence
of preventive and control measures. The upper panel represents average daily incidences
for Northern (green), Southern (blue), tropical (black) and all (red) cities. Plain
lines correspond to means and dashed lines (for the global curve only) to .05 and
.95 pointwise quantiles calculated on 500 simulation runs. The lower panel illustrates
the spread of the virus through the 52 cities of the network; the predicted probability
of influenza activity is represented for each city (from 0 (white) to 1 (black)).