How the eight remaining playoff drivers fare at Phoenix

Jimmie Johnson hasn’t won at Phoenix since 2009. He likely needs a win on Sunday. (AP Photo/LM Otero)

Can Chase Elliott or Jimmie Johnson get a win Sunday at Phoenix? The two Hendrick Motorsports drivers are essentially facing win-and-in situations in the final race of the third round of the playoffs.

Coincidentally, they have the best average finishes of any of the eight playoff drivers at the 1-mile track. Though in the case of the seven-time champion, his is skewed by success at the track before it was repaved and slightly reconfigured in the middle of 2011.

For those drivers that have competed in races at the track before and after the reconfiguration, we have their overall average finish and their post-reconfiguration average finish posted. The differences are pretty stark in some cases.

Keselowski only made four starts at Phoenix on the old configuration and the timing of the current configuration corresponds with Keselowski’s rise to elite status in the Cup Series. So there’s more than just a reconfiguration playing into his stark average finish difference. Assuming a driver behind him in the standings doesn’t win on Sunday, eighth should be good enough to get Keselowski to the final round.

Ryan Blaney (3 starts)

Wins: 0Top 10s: 2Average finish: 13.7

Blaney was 23rd at Phoenix in the spring, his worst finish at the track. His other two finishes are 10th and 8th.

Busch won his second career start at the track. He hasn’t won there since, though he’s been slightly better on the current track than the old one. Busch is on a run of four-straight top-five finishes at Phoenix and a win on Sunday would deny someone the chance to clinch an automatic berth.

Ah, Phoenix, the place where Denny Hamlin criticized NASCAR’s current car in 2013 and got fined for it. Such sweet memories. Hamlin’s win came in the 2012 spring race at the track and he’s on a run of four-straight top-10 finishes himself.

Yeah, Harvick is a freaking machine at the new Phoenix. His stats are ridiculous. Six of his eight wins at the track have come since 2011 and he once led 70 laps or more in six-straight races. He hasn’t led a lap in the last two races, so maybe the domination is waning a tad.

Chase Elliott (3 starts)

Wins: 0Top 10s: 2Average finish: 9.7

Small sample sizes, sure, but Elliott has finishes of eighth, ninth and 12th at Phoenix. He led 106 laps in the spring. He’s going to need to lead 100+ laps on Sunday — preferably the final 100 laps — to make the final four.

As Harvick has taken off since the reconfiguration, Johnson’s domination has ceased. Johnson’s last win at the track came in 2009 and has led just 114 laps in the 12 races since Phoenix was redone. Like Truex, Johnson was also dinged with a pulling up to pit penalty last fall. It didn’t matter to him because he had won earlier in the round at Martinsville. A pit penalty would matter significantly on Sunday.