Wednesday, January 13, 2010

Shaheen Sehbai [Jang Group]'s Exit Strategy for General Musharraf.

Mr. Shaheen Sehbai, Group Editor, The News International, should have been ashamed of himself before quoting a wiretap/bug in his so-called analysis, indeed it is shameful for an editor of one of the "leading" daily to quote Intelligence Agency Transcript. More shameful is that he is committing a treason [violating article 6 of 1973 Constitution of Pakistan] by inviting General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani and Pakistan Army into politics. Read in his own words and then read the same Shaheen Sehbai's own words/strategy to "Save Musharraf Strategy" in an story which he filed in SOUTH ASIA TRIBUNE which he founded in 2002 in USA when he escaped from Pakistan to save himself from the so-called wrath of the establishment headed by General Musharraf, after the controversy surrounding his story about the murder of Daniel Pearl. It was apparently simply to obtain the Green Card for himself, and his family in the United States. Mr Sehbai then started to run a web based news service, i.e., South Asia Tribune, funded through dubious sources, but he suddenly reappeared and closed his website. During his self-imposed exile in the USA, he used to raise hue and cry against the military establishment that he and his family members’ life was in danger, but the so-called danger suddenly vanished after the whole family getting the Green Cards. He then returned to Pakistan and that too under the same Musharraf regime, and joined ARY TV channel, then GEO, and then the News, where he is presently working as a Group Editor of The News International, Jang Group of Newspapers.

"QUOTE"

So then who should do it? After the politicians, in all fairness, it is the prime responsibility of the Pakistan Army, which under Gen Musharraf created this situation and which should now undo the wrongs that Musharraf perpetrated for years. When Musharraf decided to quit as Army chief, he did not, and could not, absolve the rest of the Army generals from the blame they must share. Just by walking away under the pretext of “neutrality” and protecting their ex-commander by giving him a Guard of Honour, as if he was leaving after performing tremendous feats for Pakistan, the generals who collaborated with Musharraf cannot get away from their national duty and responsibility to undo the wrongs.

But Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani has walked away from everything and the poor politicians, led by Asif Zardari and Mian Nawaz Sharif, have been left with the dirty task of sweeping the stables and washing the left over dirty linen. Still it would be a right thing if the Army decided to correct the situation even now, unless they do not want to take the heat to a point in a few months when the generals will be sucked in, walking in like saviours to save the situation, like it has been happening in the past. Honesty and sincerity demands that the present Army generals put in their bit to help correct the distortions left over by Musharraf. They are the ones with guns to implement decisions. This time their efforts would be in the interest of Pakistan, as against using that power to perpetrate the interests of one man, one general or one junta. I am prepared to offer the following sequence of steps that the Army must take before the politicians are handed over the full reins of the country, the presidency and the Prime Minister house included:

1) Since Gen Musharraf had imposed an emergency on Nov 3, as COAS, to suspend the Constitution, Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani should find a way to undo all that was wrongfully done. It is his responsibility.

2) Kayani should use his influence to restore the judges to the Nov 2 position, because Musharraf threw them out fearing a judgment against him and as the politicians would never be able to reach a consensus in view of their own insecurities and vulnerabilities. It is also a known fact that Gen Kayani did not appear in the Supreme Court to give testimony against the deposed chief justice when the Supreme Court was hearing the case before July 20, 2007. It has been reported, and not denied, that Kayani was against the sacking of Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry when he was ISI director-general.

3) He should get the NRO repealed to revert the white-washing of thousands of alleged criminals, mostly those who had struck deals with Musharraf, or whose support Musharraf needed to prolong his rule. These people should be made to face normal process of law and clear themselves, as Asif Ali Zardari had done in almost all of his cases. I still cannot figure out why he had to get himself tainted with the NRO when he had been cleared by the courts any way.

4) Kayani should cancel all the secret deals that Musharraf had made with politicians or foreign powers as these deals are not binding international agreements signed between governments. Gen Kayani or his Army is not supposed to be bound by them.

5) He should persuade others to set up a National Accountability Commission, with men of undisputed credibility, strength of character and certified competence so that all the corruption cases, past, present and future, are sent to it and anyone cleared by it is genuinely considered an honest and clean person. At present the NRO has cast more doubts on its beneficiaries than helping clear their image.

6) While all the politicians, bureaucrats and others are made to appear before this commission, Gen Musharraf must also be brought before it and made to face the charges, instead of providing him a blanket amnesty.

7) When Army power can be used to thrust a one man rule and perpetuate his interests, why can’t Army power be used to undo the wrongs for which the entire institution of the army is facing the blame and Kayani has been forced to push it into the background.

Let the power of the guns and barrels be used, for a change, in the interest of the nation and the people. It was in this piece that I had politely asked the Pakistan Army to play its role, from behind the scenes, to clean up the mess which General Musharraf had left at the doorstep of unprepared politicians. I had suggested that General Kayani should use his influence to restore the judges to the Nov 2 position. REFERENCES: How to clean up the bloody mess By Shaheen Sehbai Tuesday, September 02, 2008 News analysis http://www.thenews.com.pk/top_story_detail.asp?Id=16975 How to clean up the bloody mess-2 By Shaheen Sehbai Monday, November 23, 2009 News analysis http://thenews.jang.com.pk/top_story_detail.asp?Id=25733

"UNQUOTE"

NOW READ THE SAME SHAHEEN SEHBAI IN HIS OWN WORDS AS TO HOW HE SAVED THE SAME MUSHARRAF A MILITARY DICTATOR AND TO CLEAN MUSHARRAF'S MESS SHAHEEN SEHBAI IS AGAIN CALLING THE ARMY FROM BARRACKS TO POLITICS.

WASHINGTON, April 11: The biggest and the most complex issue confronting Pakistan today is how in the current convoluted and untenable political cum constitutional situation should the Pakistan Army and General Pervez Musharraf be provided with a face-saving “Exit Strategy” in which no party feels defeated and no party feels threatened, and Pakistan transitions from a dictatorship to a genuine democracy. The issue is discussed threadbare in almost all political meetings but hardly anyone has come up with a “practical and workable innovative idea” because any solution which does not provide the Army, General Musharraf and his colleagues, a safe and dependable exit will not be acceptable to the Army and the deadlock will continue.

Most of the mainstream political parties demand a free and fair general election to solve the problem. That is the ultimate solution but that does not provide General Musharraf and the Army enough confidence to take the risk as they believe, and rightly so, that their hand-crafted house of cards will just collapse leaving them vulnerable to all kinds of threats and retributions. The political parties feel that free and fair elections will give them their rightful share in power but they also know that it is not easy to force the corrupt ruling clique to let go their hold on power, just because some parties are demanding that. Pakistan’s history proves that no autocrat or dictator ever left power on his own and had to be either booted out by street pressure or his own Army colleagues stabbed him in the back or he just vanished into thin air like General Zia ul Haq. Either of these eventualities is possible, but not probable in the current scenario. The street is divided and politicians are unable to muster enough strength to force their demands. Army colleagues of General Musharraf are behind him, at least until they see a real challenge to his authority from outside the institution. Musharraf is taking extra-ordinary measures to avoid a Bahawalpur type exit.

Yet he knows that his political structure is crumbling from within and as the next promised general election draws closer, unless a quick resolution of the crisis is achieved, pressures to manipulate the whole process will mount and correspondingly manipulation will become more difficult by the day. If Musharraf feels that things have become unmanageable, he may think of imposing direct Martial Law but that would be hard to market in the US and the West and domestically it would further alienate him, even from his present collaborators. The facade of democracy will also be washed out. So what could be a possible and practical way for a smooth transfer of power in which Musharraf himself does not feel threatened, even though he may have to take off his military uniform and appoint a new Chief of Army Staff while remaining the President and Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces?

First the ground realities and the bottom line positions of each party from which it may be hard to deviate. All parties obviously have fundamental objections to these positions of the others:

- General Musharraf is the all-powerful President and Army Chief and wants to remain so even after the next General Elections.

- Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif think they enjoy a much wider support base and hence in a free and fair election they will re-emerge as the contenders to power. Hence they are reluctant to concede anything to General Musharraf in the long term.

- Musharraf is unwilling to quit his Army post because he fears, and has said so many a times, that by doing so he would be weakened and the threat of a new military coup would emerge with a new power player coming into the equation.

- The religious parties led by MMA believe that the status quo is helping them gain quick ground among the embittered, disillusioned and hard pressed masses and so they would like to prolong it.

- The collaborators of Musharraf know that until he was around and powerful, they would be able to keep their house together but the moment he is weakened, their house of cards will collapse.

- The Corps Commanders and members of the Musharraf junta believe they are helpless unless outside forces make a real dent in his authority providing them with some opening to put pressure. Otherwise they have to go along with anything and everything the General says and does.

- All these parties understand that since 2007 is approaching fast something has to be done quickly to consolidate their own position, outwit the others and play their cards to their best advantage.

Given these conflicting and opposing interests and strategies, the national political scene looks like a fish market with everybody scrambling behind closed doors but nothing understandable and logical happening publicly except confusing moves, contradictory statements, empty threats, meaningless fights on non-issues and reiteration of stated positions to keep the lid from blowing.

In this scenario a few innovative thinkers in Washington, London and Pakistan have come up with a solution which I have been asked to articulate as a proposal and present as a “trial balloon” for everyone to consider, discuss and refine as the Exit Strategy for Pakistan Army (ESPA) from this messy situation.

The salient features of ESPA are as follows:

- It provides a safe passage to General Musharraf to quit his Army Post, appoint a new Army Chief but without facing the threat of a coup.

- It provides the political parties a chance to get a free and fair election under a “civilian” or an ex-army President.

- It enables Musharraf to stay on as the country’s President after the next General Elections for another term, but under legitimate constitutional authority and mandate.

- It provides for basic judicial and administrative reforms which would enable creating a credible and transparent system for smooth transfer of power to duly elected representatives of the people.

- It brings genuine democracy and distances the Army from politics of power.

ESPA’s key component is to resolve the first issue of how to enable Musharraf to take off his uniform without facing the threat of a coup by his new COAS. The proposed solution is as follows:

- The threat of a coup comes from the 111 Brigade and the Rawalpindi Corps of the Pakistan Army which controls the Islamabad-Rawalpindi zone with men and guns. This Brigade has been used again and again by the Army Chief to topple dictators and elected governments. When the 111 Brigade moves, Pakistan faces a new challenge.

- ESPA proposes that the Rawalpindi Corps including the 111 Brigade should be separated from the rest of the Army, through an amendment in the Army Act or whatever law is applicable, to be placed under the direct control of the President and Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces.

- Thus the new Army Chief will control 8 out of the present 9 Army Corps. He will be able to focus on the professional capabilities and defence preparedness of the Army on the borders and elsewhere but not in Islamabad where there is no border security involved.

- Since the President and Supreme Commander of the Army would directly control the Rawalpindi Corps, no other outside troops could come to stage a coup, and if they do so, it would be almost impossible with the Rawalpindi Corps defending Islamabad and the President.

- In return for this crucial concession to General Musharraf, the political parties should be given the guarantee of free and fair elections.

- Since words of either side are not to be trusted in this high-stake game, the President has to demonstrate that elections would be free by holding the Local Bodies Elections on a completely free and fair basis, allowing all parties to participate and without the Establishment, the Army and the Agencies taking sides. This trial run for elections would form the basis for the General Elections.

- Once trust is established between the two sides, an independent Election Commission be set up and intense discussions be held to revamp the Supreme Court of Pakistan by appointing persons of impeccable and undisputed integrity to the Bench for the next 5 years.

- Current Judges on which all parties have confidence may be retained but others told to go home. The new Supreme Court should revisit all the controversial constitutional judgments of the past which were believed to have been taken under any pressure or under duress. The Doctrine of Necessity, thus, needs to be revisited and thrown out of the system and whatever judicial wrong was done in the past, including hanging of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, should be corrected, at least for the record.

- If General Musharraf agrees to these terms, he should be promised a fresh Presidential Term as a civilian President, duly elected by the Parliament, with the powers to control the Rawalpindi Corps. Every new President thereon should have the same power, whether he be a civilian or an ex-army man.

- The General Headquarters of the Army should be moved away from Islamabad to Kharian or anywhere else.

- The President and the newly elected Parliament should revisit the Constitution and further balance the powers between the President and the Prime Minister, specially making it difficult for the President to use Article 58(2)(B) powers wrongfully or with malicious intent. If the Supreme Court restores any dismissed Government or Parliament, the President should under the Constitution be made to resign.

The main objection to ESPA, during our discussions, was that the proposals split the Pakistan Army and would not be acceptable to the Generals. It may be so, but some of us believe that since this solution is Musharraf-specific and since in this situation Musharraf himself is the big issue, he is the one who has to decide whether this plan will work for him and provide him the "Safe Passage" that he is looking for. If Musharraf thinks it can work and he would be comfortable, other Generals and members of his junta do not matter. This is in very brief words the gist of ESPA and how the Army, the politicians and the country can break this logjam and move on to a respectable future. These are raw thoughts as of now. They have to be discussed and refined and if finally on this pattern some solution is worked out, ESPA would have succeeded. Else, until another alternative is suggested, Pakistan will keep on drifting under the weight of its messy polity of self interest and deceit and no one knows where the cord may snap and for whom.