NEW YORK  As the midterm elections approach, voters say they are much more likely to support a challenger over the incumbent candidate, according to a new FOX News Poll. In addition, "throw the bums out" is a popular choice when voters pick bumper sticker wording to describe the main reason for their vote for Congress this year. President Bushs job rating is unchanged this month holding steady at 36 percent approval...

If the election were held today, 48 percent of Americans say they would vote for the Democratic candidate in their congressional district and 30 percent for the Republican candidate. This 18-percentage point edge is up from an 8-point advantage in mid-July and a 13-point lead in June...

Among those saying Iraq will be very important to their vote, 48 percent say they plan to back the Democratic candidate and 31 percent the Republican candidate in the upcoming election...

If this trend doesn't turn around, and the news out of Iraq doesn't improve dramatically, at least one (and maybe both) House of Congress will change hands in January, giving Democrats subpoena power which they will surely use "liberally".

Except for the threat of an impeachment of W, I really don't mind the Republicans getting their butts kicked. They have spent money like drunken sailors for several years, offer consistently weak support the President and war publicly, and waste their time on things like flag amendments. Maybe it is time for a little house cleaning.

If you're unhappy with what's going on, write, call, or do something to let your rep know. For God's sake don't vote for the other party. That's just plain stupid. If you want to get rid of someone like Arlen Specter then vote for his Republican opponent in the primary and oust him that way, don't vote for his democratic opponent. What idiots.

I stopped watching FOX in the evening after they went over the dark side after Israel Lebanon incursion. Polls are useless in general. And I suspect that any large terror attack that was thwarted today were to happen between now and election could change polling data considerably.

We are winning the war in Iraq. Although we have lost some very good men (I pray for each one of them), this campaign has gone very well. Unfortunately, the press and the Surrender Party (Reid, Pelosi, Kennedy) have repeatedly told the American people that the war is not going well. It is a self-fulfilling prophecy. This is a HUGE political lie, and the Republicans unfortunately are either unwilling or unable to deal with it and get the truth out. THE IRAQ WAR HAS GONE VERY WELL! The Surrender Party is blowing smoke!

They are "getting their butts kicked." In the primaries. In MI the RINO just got tossed out on his behind. If you don't like RINOs vote them out of the primaries.

They have spent money like drunken sailors for several years, offer consistently weak support the President and war publicly, and waste their time on things like flag amendments. Maybe it is time for a little house cleaning.

Yeah, let's just vote in the Dims, who'll do far worse damage. Never mind that a good three-quarters of the GOP is solidly conservative. But you want to spite them because of the other 25% that's dragging down the party.

Oh God, I'm feeling the exact same level of terror I felt when I read this poll in 2000, 2002 and 2004! Not again!!!! If only the Republicans could win one of these elections after these rock-solid polls...

If this trend doesn't turn around, and the news out of Iraq doesn't improve dramatically, at least one (and maybe both) House of Congress will change hands in January, giving Democrats subpoena power which they will surely use "liberally".

Iraq is going VERY WELL. The news coming out of there is tainted by the lerftist media. Unfortunately, even some "conservatives" are buying into this crap about the war not going well...

I guess FOX thinks that Americans are pissed off and in an impeachment mood. We'll see. I'm just not buying it. I think Americans are a little smarter than that and a hell of a lot smarter than the media.

23
posted on 08/10/2006 8:03:39 PM PDT
by FlingWingFlyer
(Before you respond to that poll, imagine flying coach and Abdul just became your new pilot.)

National polls can not predict the outcome of individual races. I do believe Republicans need to fight like they've never fought before but what I think these polls reflect more than anything is the increasing polarization not voting trends. It is hard given the hyper politicization to get a representative sample of the public. If this were a Presidential election then this would be a problem but this is not.

Earlier this week on his radio program, Limbaugh read article headline after article headline with the same sentiment and tone of the one you posted suggesting that the GOP was in grave danger and in an all but hopeless position for the upcoming election in about 3 months.

Except for the threat of an impeachment of W, I really don't mind the Republicans getting their butts kicked. They have spent money like drunken sailors for several years, offer consistently weak support the President and war publicly, and waste their time on things like flag amendments. Maybe it is time for a little house cleaning.

Of course, there is the small matter of the Democrats waiving the white flag in the war on terror. But who cares. Buy stock in a burka factory, sit back and get rich.

What the hell kind of question is "If you didn't know anything about the candidates, would you be more likely to vote for the challenger, or the incumbent?"

Only imbeciles (the Democrat voter-base) would even answer such a question. Their vote is ALWAYS "D", and they don't care or know anything about the issues or the candidate's positions, they just know they always vote Democrat.

So why do incumbents get reelected 98% of the time? In the House, there are less than 40 competitive seats. Gerrymandering has made most races non-competitive. The only most incumbents leave is through retirement. Then they have their kids run for the seat.

You don't really think that 95% of GOP voters will follow through and turn out in a midterm election do you, or any election for that matter? But yes, the problem despite what you read on FR, is not so much with GOP voters, except in a few places. It is with the "independents."

I just posted the following on the DOSE: [EEE: click on the link for a DETAILED overview of the poll cited at your link!]

IGNORE ALL POLLING DATA FROM THE MSM (including OpinionDynamics/FoxNews and Rasmussen -- OD oversamples Democrats by 5-8 points and Rasmussen is now oversampling Democrats/Democrat-leaning Independents by 4 1/2 points vs EVEN at the beginning of the year).

The following information is all you need to know! [Thank you Howlin, ohiowfan, et al, for pinging me to a related FR thread!]

BASE MOBILIZATION SURVEY FINDINGS & CONCLUSIONS

. . . Overall support for President Bush and congressional Republicans from the Republican base is very strong.

The generic congressional vote from Republicans is an overwhelming 84% to 6% within sampling error of what we found for the 2004 election. An equally impressive 88% to 11% majority of Republicans approve of the way the president is handling his job!

Here in Ohio I have heard more than one Republican talk about not voting for that RINO DeWine. He votes with the Dems most of the time anyway - "So what is the difference?" -some are saying... Wish there were a good alternative to vote for instead of DeWine.

Just asking...but, you think the Democrats are going to be more fiscally responsible...offer more support to the President...openly and eagerly support the war effort?

You also think the Dims will not waste time supporting things like flag amendments...but, will get right down to really serious business...like maybe raising taxes and oh, that one little worrisome matter of impeaching the President?!? Now, did I understand you correctly, just checking?

46
posted on 08/10/2006 8:21:55 PM PDT
by top 2 toe red
(To the enemy in Iraq..."Don't bet on American politics forcing my hand!" President Bush)

As was discovered in 2000, 2002, and 2004 the percent of truly Independent voters is a mere 5-7% . . . Just as it was in 2004, the 2006 election will be determined by the effectiveness of the Republican and Democrat 'Get Out the Vote' (GOTV) efforts!

Here in Ohio I have heard more than one Republican talk about not voting for that RINO DeWine. He votes with the Dems most of the time anyway - "So what is the difference?" -some are saying... Wish there were a good alternative to vote for instead of DeWine.

Several months back DeWhine won his primary against a good conservative challenger. DeWhine got ~76% of the vote. The conservative challenger got about ~15% of the vote.

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