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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 AMMAN 003420
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/09/2013
TAGS: PGOVPRELPHUMSOCIJOINRB
SUBJECT: ZARQA ELECTION PRIMER
Classified By: Charge D'Affaires Greg Berry, reasons 1.5 (b,d).
¶1. (c) Summary: Mohammed Arsalan, a long-time Embassy
contact and candidate for the "Chechen" seat representing
Zarqa in the new parliament, spoke with econoff at some
length about the election process (Byzantine), his chances
(good), and the primary concerns of the Zarqa constituency
(surprising). He also shared his views on the sources of
strength for the Islamic Action Front/Muslim Brotherhood, and
on the factors limiting their political influence. Should
Arsalan win his seat, he will be a strong advocate for
continued economic reform and openness, and may have some
success bringing other MP's into the fold. End summary.
NUMBERS, PREDICTIONS
¶2. (sbu) Mohammed Arsalan is the 45-year old former
Secretary General of the Zarqa Chamber of Industry and a long
SIPDIS
time Embassy contact. He is currently a candidate for the
"Chechen" seat in Zarqa governorate for the June 17
parliamentary elections. Arsalan recently described to
econoff his campaign experiences, as well as the overall mood
of Zarqans toward the election process and other issues of
the day.
¶3. (sbu) The seat Arsalan is contesting is one of 10 in the
governorate, and one of four in the district containing the
city of Zarqa. Of the other three seats in the district, two
are "reserved" for Arab Muslims, and the other is reserved
for a Christian candidate. For this election, a total of 37
candidates have registered to contest the 10 seats in the
governorate. Of those, four are contesting the Chechen seat,
including an IAF candidate, an independent woman, and a
"wealthy" male doctor with support in the Palestinian
community. The total pool of potential voters in the
governorate is around 151,000. Seats for the Zarqa district
are allocated to the top two Arab Muslim vote getters, the
top Christian candidate (regardless of overall popular vote),
and the top Chechen candidate. Thus Arsalan will likely
finish somewhere in the top third of the pack of the 37
candidates, but expects to finish first among Chechen
candidates.
¶4. (sbu) Arsalan said voter turnout is expected to be low -
he estimated no more than 25-30 percent of registered voters
would cast votes. Because of his own dogged campaigning,
though, he expects to garner some 3,000 votes for himself,
which he expects will easily outdistance his nearest
competitor. Arsalan predicted that the IAF candidate
opposing him would gather no more than 250 votes. For the
governorate, Arsalan predicted the IAF would control no more
than 3 or 4 seats, with the balance going to independent
candidates who will secure votes based on tribal/family
affiliations, ethnic/religious ties, or exceptional financial
resources used to paper the governorate with campaign
posters. He added that few of these candidates were long on
substance, and he expected to be able to lead the
independents as a bloc of 6-7 MP's.
ANATOMY OF A CAMPAIGN
¶5. (sbu) Arsalan's campaign, like that of almost all
independent candidates, is almost completely self-financed.
Arsalan said that to run a campaign or create a party, heavy
self-financing was critical, since voters had a very poor
record of supporting candidates financially. Ironically,
Arsalan said he could not even secure an endorsement from his
previous employer, the Zarqa Chamber of Industry, due to
personal disagreements between himself and the Chairman of
the Board. This despite the fact that Arsalan is widely
known to support exactly the kinds of policies the Chamber
advocates.
¶6. (sbu) Arsalan has instead relied on his contacts in the
Chechen community as the main base of his support. In what
he termed a real revolution, he convinced the traditionally
conservative, anti-liberalization community to back him over
more conservative candidates. He credits his ability to win
the support of the community to the skills he learned while
participating in a series of USAID-funded public speaking and
management seminars over the past year. He said this
training, and his ability to speak on substantive (read:
economic) issues has set him well apart from the rest of the
field of candidates.
¶7. (sbu) Arsalan has maintained a grueling campaign
schedule, spending every day speaking with walk-ins to his
campaign headquarters and every night (often until 3:00 a.m.)
speaking to small groups (10-30) of constituents, both to
gauge their interests and to elicit their support. He noted
with surprise the large number of students from local
universities who have visited him in his offices, an
illustration, he says, of a visibly higher level of awareness
of issues among the constituency. Arsalan expressed
particular joy at speaking with students: "I don't have to
walk them through the ABC's of every issue - I can start at
K." By contrast, he said his opponents have steered clear of
discussions, relying instead on aggressive "paper the town"
approaches in an effort to get name recognition on the ballot
through the use of campaign posters.
¶8. (sbu) Arsalan said the IAF initially launched strong
attacks against him, accusing him of being a tool of the
Americans and a Free Mason (a less inflammatory substitute
for "Zionist"), and of selling visas to the U.S. in return
for votes. He said they stopped perpetuating these rumors,
though, after a few months when they saw the rumors were not
gaining any traction among voters. He said the IAF probably
also decided to focus its energies on winning the two Arab
Muslim seats in the Zarqa city district, and as a result
could not sustain negative campaigning against him.
ISSUES AND VIEWS FROM ZARQA'S VOTING PUBLIC
¶9. (sbu) Arsalan said there was a great deal of voter
apathy to overcome in this election. He said that, as a
result of perceived voting irregularities in the last
parliamentary election, and a long-standing belief that
districts were "Gerrymandered" to limit the power of the IAF,
voters simply distrusted the system. With little confidence
in the system, many voters were reluctant to go to the polls.
Arsalan said his message to these voters was that a low
turn-out only favors extremism and backwardness, and that a
decision to "get out the vote" would help moderates and those
who championed growth. He said the approach had resonated
somewhat, but he did not expect that he alone would be able
to significantly affect turnout.
¶10. (sbu) He said that most voters (somewhat surprisingly)
are hungry for a candidate who can talk about "pocketbook"
issues, one who knows something about the economy and can
translate pronouncements from the cabinet into programs for
Zarqans, jobs, and food on the table. He added that many
voters are just plain tired of listening to political
rhetoric, either on Peace process issues, Iraq, or terrorism.
They are equally tired of constant announcements of new
programs by the cabinet that don't result in noticeable
improvements to their standard of living. Related to this,
Arsalan said many voters talk of wanting "equality and
justice," i.e. equal opportunities for all Jordanians to
benefit from programs, foreign aid, new business, and the
like. The inability of the cabinet to deliver has, Arsalan
said, hurt prospects for Abul Ragheb and the cabinet to
retain their positions after the elections - especially now
that new appointments would have to be confirmed by MP's.
Arsalan said he has been pounding the accountability in
government theme to Zarqa voters, with good response. (Note:
other Embassy contacts recently gave Abul Ragheb a 50-50
chance of retaining office after the elections. End note.)
¶11. (sbu) On Iraq, Arsalan said he is hearing nothing. He
said Zarqans are bitterly angry at Saddam and, by extension,
at Iraq and Iraqis, for being "all talk, no action." He said
voters were stunned by the total and rapid collapse of Iraq's
armed forces, and that the Iraq debacle further shook their
willingness to believe posturing by political leaders, both
in the government and in the IAF and local community. On the
U.S., he said almost everyone is schizophrenic - of course
they agree with the ideals America stands for, but almost
everyone is strongly opposed to current American policies in
the region and America's treatment of Arabs in the region and
in the U.S. He added it was too soon to see any measurable
difference in opinion as a result of the Aqaba summit, but
acknowledged that the issue of Palestine is closely and
continuously watched by Zarqa voters.
PILLARS AND RESTRAINTS ON THE IAF
¶12. (sbu) Arsalan said the strength of the IAF in general
was modest - they probably could count on no more than 10% of
votes in Zarqa, and probably similar figures elsewhere in
Jordan. The votes they control, though, he said they control
completely. The IAF, he continued, draws its strength from
two main areas: first, they are exceptionally well organized
in a system in which there are no other well organized
parties to speak of, only masses of independent candidates.
Not only can they mobilize voters, but they can mobilize
services and support for communities in which they are
prominent. From mosque building to emergency food relief to
other charity work (often financed from outside Jordan), the
IAF can deliver to communities in need - thus gaining
legitimacy and improving their following. Second, they can
claim to speak for God - who, Arsalan pointed out,
consistently enjoys good approval ratings. Not only does
this give the IAF moral authority in some sectors, it also
dismisses them from the burden of developing an issue-based
platform. Instead, they simply point to the Koran and tell
voters that Islam has the answer - whatever the question.
¶13. (sbu) While these mechanisms make for a tightly-knit
organization, Arsalan said the influence of the IAF has been
slipping for years, due mainly to their self-imposed exile
from political dialogue in Jordan for the past several years.
This decision, Arsalan said, probably cost them 30% of their
support base, since "now two generations have grown up not
knowing about the IAF." Also, in recent months, the IAF was
delivered a black eye when it rallied support for Saddam
Hussein and Iraq, gleefully repeating Saddam's propaganda,
only to find itself standing firmly on the losing side and
lacking all credibility. These two trends have left a sour
taste in the mouths of many voters who would traditionally
have been sympathetic to IAF positions, but now see the IAF
in the same light as any other political animal - long on
slogans, short on substance.
COMMENT
¶14. (c) Arsalan is a practical, capable, affable, and above
all active member of the Zarqa community. He is not afraid
to take risks - he is the only liberal running in the
governorate, and the only candidate to feature the Jordanian
flag in his campaign materials - a nod to the King's "Jordan
First" campaign and a slap in the face to Islamists and
Palestinian hard-liners alike. Arsalan has long been a
supporter of the QIZ's, the FTA, and any other program that
can help improve the lives of average Jordanians. He will
seek membership in Parliament's economic and foreign
relations committees, where he could prove an opinion leader
among moderate MP's.
BERRY