One poll shows why passing Republicans' healthcare plans could be so politically toxic

Two bills introduced recently by House and Senate Republicans
take differing strategies to overhauling the US healthcare
system, but they do have one major thing in common: massive
proposed cuts to Medicaid.

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office on Monday released
its analysis for the Senate bill, the Better Care
Reconciliation Act, and estimated that provisions in the BCRA
would result in $772 billion in cuts to Medicaid by 2026.

The CBO previously estimated that the House bill, the American
Health Care Act, would result in
roughly $880 billion in cuts over the same period.

While the AHCA passed the House in May after wrangling between
the conservative and moderate wings, Senate Republicans are
likely to have an even tougher time passing the BCRA.

And much of their struggle comes back to Medicaid.

Here's a Public Opinion
Strategies poll of opinions on changing funding
to Medicaid in key states:

With Senate Democrats universally opposed to the BCRA, the
Republicans can afford to lose only two votes to ensure the bill
will pass through the Senate. Republican Sen. Dean Heller of
Nevada
came out in opposition to the bill on Friday, citing the
bill's cuts to Medicaid and its phasing out of the Medicaid
expansion established by the Affordable Care Act.

"You have to protect Medicaid expansion states," Heller said
Friday. "That's what I want. Make sure we're taken care of here
in the state of Nevada."

Under the ACA, the healthcare law better known as Obamacare,
Medicaid was expanded to those earning up to 138% of the federal
poverty limit in states choosing to participate. Previously, the
line was drawn at 100%.

Other Republican senators from states that expanded their
Medicaid program, as well as those from states suffering the
brunt of the opioid crisis, may follow Heller's lead. Medicaid
has been a critical source of funding for drug treatment.

Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska on Monday said she had
not gotten to a yes vote yet and wanted to learn more about the
bill's potential effects on her state.

Of those states in the Public Opinion Strategies poll, Alaska,
Arkansas, Colorado, and Nevada all expanded Medicaid. Tennessee
did not but is one of the states hardest hit by the opioid
crisis.

Andy Kiersz/Business Insider

While Sen. Rob Portman of Ohio offered tepid support on the
bill's effects on the individual insurance market, he said he had
"real concerns" about the bill's approach to Medicaid. He said he
would reserve judgment until he reviewed the CBO's analysis.

"If the final legislation is good for Ohio, I will support it,"
Portman said last week in a statement. "If not, I will oppose
it."

The takeaway from the Public Opinion Strategies poll isn't
anything new. A tracking poll
released in February by the Kaiser Family Foundation, a
nonpartisan health-policy organization, found that a significant
majority of Americans supported the existing Medicaid program.

According to the poll, 65% of Americans said Medicaid should
continue largely unchanged, despite Republican proposals to
change the program.

According to the survey, 87% of Americans living in a Medicaid
expansion state run by a Republican governor supported continued
federal funding for the Medicaid expansion; 85% of Americans with
a Democratic or independent governor were in support. And 80% of
Americans in states without the expansion — 19 in total —
supported keeping the expansion.