This copy is for your personal non-commercial use only. To order presentation-ready copies of Toronto Star content for distribution to colleagues, clients or customers, or inquire about permissions/licensing, please go to: www.TorontoStarReprints.com

Only if you had bought into the notion of Armageddon awaiting Lebanon – indeed, the Middle East and the West – would you be heaving a huge sigh of relief at the results of the Lebanese election.

The so-called showdown between "moderate," "pro-Western" parties and the "terrorist," "pro-Iranian" forces was never quite that.

The "Islamic" side was supported by secularist Baathist Syria. The "secularist" side was funded by Islamic Saudi Arabia. Both camps had Christians and Muslims in their ranks.

Hezbollah was never going to "win" the election. All it had was 11 seats out of 128. It has kept those. It is its larger Christian electoral partner that lost some, enabling the ruling coalition to retain power with a slightly higher margin, 71 to 57.

Had the opposition won, Hezbollah (born out of resisting the 1982-2000 Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon and strengthened by the 2006 Israeli invasion) would have notched a symbolic victory.

Article Continued Below

More significantly, such an electoral outcome would have created a credibility crisis for the U.S., Canada and their allies: How to deal with a terrorist group had it become a legitimate part of a government.

The U.S. has already paid a huge price for promoting democracy but boycotting Hamas after it won the 2006 election fair and square.

That hypocrisy, in which Canada under Stephen Harper has played a leading role, would've been compounded had the Hezbollah coalition won. That was the big fear.

Hence the big relief: "The Islamists lost. Whoopee!"

On the ground in Lebanon, not much has changed. Hezbollah will remain a strong force. It will insist on retaining its veto over cabinet decisions. It won't give up its militia – in fact, even the U.S. is no longer pressing that point.

The real good news is that the Lebanese voters may at last be breaking out of their confessional politics, introduced by the French in the 1930s.

Candidates must compete against co-religionists, though voters from other religious groups may vote for them. (A Muslim voter in a Christian-designated riding must choose between Christian candidates.)

The prime minister must be a Sunni Muslim, the president a Maronite Catholic, the speaker a Shiite, and so on, down the line, even through the civil service.

This undemocratic arrangement has been further distorted by demographics. Christians are now estimated at only 35 per cent of the population. And Shiites outnumber Sunnis, 35 per cent to 25 per cent.

The system cries out for an overhaul. But given the entrenched interests, it's difficult to dislodge. More telling is the international silence, especially by secularists.

It is one thing to champion democracy, as Barack Obama is and George W. Bush did. But having Lebanon's Shiites use the ballot box to get their due is quite another.

However, the Lebanese may be starting to "break out of the mould of sectarian politics," says former Canadian foreign minister Bill Graham. "Many Maronites voted for the Hezbollah bloc, while the Sunni Muslim group of Saad Hariri got votes from other Christians."

At the same time, the Shiites – chafing under the unrepresentative electoral system – have coalesced around Hezbollah. "It has entrenched itself even more deeply than before in the Shiite areas," notes James Reilly, professor of Near and Middle Eastern Studies at the University of Toronto.

These internal dynamics of Lebanon will no doubt have some regional implications. But do not expect them to have a major impact on the larger issues of the Middle East. For that, keep looking at Israel, Iran, Iraq and the United States.

The Toronto Star and thestar.com, each property of Toronto Star Newspapers Limited, One Yonge Street, 4th Floor, Toronto, ON, M5E 1E6. You can unsubscribe at any time. Please contact us or see our privacy policy for more information.

More from the Toronto Star & Partners

LOADING

Copyright owned or licensed by Toronto Star Newspapers Limited. All rights reserved. Republication or distribution of this content is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Toronto Star Newspapers Limited and/or its licensors. To order copies of Toronto Star articles, please go to: www.TorontoStarReprints.com