We’ll see. In a way, this would be a perfect ending to this trainwreck: A big show of “toughness” that will almost certainly backfire politically while gaining the party almost nothing in concessions. The new GOP offer to the Senate is a very modest “ask” — repealing a medical-device tax that Reid himself considers “stupid,” forcing government officials (but not their staffs) onto the ObamaCare exchanges, and demanding half-assed enforcement of Obama’s anti-fraud provisions. In a sane world Reid would accept it instantly in return for ending the shutdown and raising the debt ceiling, but Democrats have never been interested in a policy deal out of this process. They want to teach the GOP a lesson that fiscal brinksmanship doesn’t pay, and so, with the debt ceiling 48 hours away, we now have a big showdown over whether the “defund” effort will end up with one percent of what it wanted originally or, if Reid wins, absolute zero. Ramesh Ponnuru puts it succinctly:

The "wins" in the House plan are not that big, but not sure Ds can accept any R wins for ending shutdown, raising debt limit.

If Reid would rather tank the economy by hitting the debt ceiling than accept a meager House counter-offer, he should answer for that. But, precisely because the offer is so meager (more a “modification” of the Senate bill than a House counteroffer), Boehner et al. may calculate that they need to do something to “impress” disappointed conservatives. Adjourning and heading home after the House bill passes to show that this is their take-it-or-leave-it middle-finger final offer to Obama might do that — but it’ll also let O, Reid, and the media jump up and down and pronounce Republicans callously indifferent to hitting the debt ceiling. It would also undercut the whole “let’s talk” message that Republicans like Boehner and Rand Paul have been pushing for the past two weeks. So that’s where we are right now, with Reid wondering whether a sweetheart deal isn’t quite sweetheart enough to justify avoiding a major economic crisis and Boehner possibly ready to shoot the party in the foot again by doing something which he thinks will endear the House GOP to righties but probably won’t matter much to them.

As Ed noted in the last post, I don’t understand why, with so little time left, Boehner and Reid are haggling over penny ante concessions instead of agreeing on a clean debt-ceiling hike in the name of averting technical default. When I floated that idea on Twitter, a bunch of conservatives tweeted back that I was selling out and siding with Reid. Either they’re confused or I’m confused because, as of a few days ago, raising the debt ceiling was an idea supported even by some tea-party bigwigs. The idea is to punt the debt ceiling down the road for a few months and then dig in on the shutdown in order to extract major ObamaCare concessions from the White House; the only disagreement with Democrats is over how long the debt-ceiling hike should last and whether there should be any token concessions attached to it. At this late hour, Boehner would probably be willing to pass a clean hike in the name of averting hitting the debt limit and Reid would probably accept it even though it doesn’t end the shutdown and would raise the ceiling for a much shorter term than he’d like. (Last week he introduced a bill to raise the debt limit for a full year. It failed in the Senate.) A four-month debt-ceiling raise, which would be right in line with the emerging Reid/McConnell bill, presumably could pass relatively easily. Boehner could even sell it to conservatives as a victory in the sense that he’d preserved their ObamaCare leverage by refusing to end the shutdown. That deal would have a shot at being rubber-stamped by both chambers before the Thursday debt-ceiling deadline. The current deal probably doesn’t, which means we’re likely to find out what happens when the debt ceiling is reached.

Update: Like I was saying, no deal:

WH calls House GOP latest a "partisan attempt to appease a small group of Tea Party R's who forced the govt shutdown in the 1st place"

While I’d love to see the symbolic middle finger of the House passing something and leaving town, the debt ceiling fight is not one worth having. Raise it, and move on. Keep fighting on the shutdown. That’s the battle to win.

Let the democrats defend Obamacare again in 2014 the same way they did in 2010… However this time Obamacare disaster is not a theory anymore, it has been implemented and many people are suffering from it…

The overall purpose of this bunch is not to “govern” but to play high school student council politics with each other to see who runs the cafeteria. I am sick of the whole bunch ;the country and we the people are going to pay the price for these miserable bastards and their egos running amuck.

Adjourning and heading home after the House bill passes to show that this is their take-it-or-leave-it middle-finger final offer to Obama might do that — but it’ll also let O, Reid, and the media jump up and down and pronounce Republicans callously indifferent to hitting the debt ceiling.

Let them. It’s no different than what they’ve been doing already anyway.

It would also undercut the whole “let’s talk” message that Republicans like Boehner and Rand Paul have been pushing for the past two weeks.

Hardly. The Democrats are openly advertising that they have no intention of negotiating in good faith.

The “wins” in the House plan are not that big, but not sure Ds can accept any R wins for ending shutdown, raising debt limit.

Then the Dems will keep the government shut down and the debt ceiling from being raised. It really is that simple. A few days ago, some sort of middle ground might have been possible but that opportunity is passed. Anything that caves to Harry effing Reid and John effing McCain is not good for America.

Go on vacation and point out to Harry Reid that there are a whole lot of bills to fund government in whole or in part waiting to be taken up by the Senate… and, really, you have your choices there. And that nothing from the Senate will be taken up until EACH of those bills is brought to the floor of the Senate for votes FIRST.

Adjourning and heading home after the House bill passes to show that this is their take-it-or-leave-it middle-finger final offer to Obama might do that — but it’ll also let O, Reid, and the media jump up and down and pronounce Republicans callously indifferent to hitting the debt ceiling.

Aren’t they doing that already?

And even if the GOPe totally caved in to the Dems, and gave them everything on a silver platter, the reaction from the Dems and the MSM wouldn’t change one bit.

relax AP. boehner will cave. conservs will be hung out to dry. obama will be called the only adult in the room. crisis will be averted. conservs will be called terrorists by everyone but fox. house will accused of not compromising. dems get everything they wanted and more. ok? thats how this ends. and how it always ends. and how the country ends.

Amnesty is waiting too, and Dog Eater is ready to go all-in again while the feckless worthless GOP stooges intentionally reveal their cards before betting has even started. Our players, McCain, Linseed, Rubio, and Ryan are looking up from the table at us, “Hey, break open a few more envelopes of hundos, we feel a hot streak coming on.”

Technical default now or technical default later. What difference does it make? Do it now and it will all be over by Christmas and the dems and their puppet masters will think twice about their brinkmanship in the future.

I bet the sun still rises on the 18th…I am tired of the GOP always giving in. The media and a certain sector of this country are always going to hate the GOP-might as well piss them off more. Let it burn!

I say call the prezy’s bluff, pass a CR and raise the debt limit for an additional year on both. This will lock in the sequester; then immediately file for an injunction over whether the prezy can just ignore the Vitter rule.

They want to teach the GOP a lesson that fiscal brinksmanship doesn’t pay, and so, with the debt ceiling 48 hours away…

Allahpundit,
We have been holding at $25M below the debt ceiling SINCE MAY. It’s not “48 hours away”, it’s “Five Months Ago”. Hitting the debt ceiling has not stopped Treasury from borrowing about $100 Billion per month for the last 5 months… they just borrow from “Extraordinary Measures” which must, by law, be repaid and made whole once the debt limit is raised.

It appears that the only way to stop the deficit spending is to exhaust the “extraordinary measures”… when Treasury can’t sell more bonds and can’t raid any more “extraordinary measures” money, they would be forced to balance outlays to receipts.

But stop saying the debt ceiling is hours away. That is simply not true. We effectively blew past the debt ceiling 5 months ago, and now our true debt is over half a TRILLION dollars higher than the current so-called “debt limit”.

I agree with AP. Pass the clean debt limit extension and then double down on the CR.

Boehner is an idiot.

DRayRaven on October 15, 2013 at 11:37 AM

I say tell the lazy stupid bastard he doesn’t get to add more debt so he’d better figure out spending priorities as the end of the month approaches. They say the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again. Well that can needs a break from being kicked. Maybe, just maybe, this is the moment to make that happen. The CR at this point is the secondary debate and one which the Dems are not nearly as concerned about resolving.

You and AP need to stay away from negotiations because it is just stupid to give away all your leverage before the battle even starts.

I bet the sun still rises on the 18th…I am tired of the GOP always giving in. The media and a certain sector of this country are always going to hate the GOP-might as well tick them off more. Let it burn!

Amnesty is waiting too, and Dog Eater is ready to go all-in again while the feckless worthless GOP stooges intentionally reveal their cards before betting has even started. Our players, McCain, Linseed, Rubio, and Ryan are looking up from the table at us, “Hey, break open a few more envelopes of hundos, we feel a hot streak coming on.”

Stay in town but announce that the Senate has their last and best offer. Harry Reid and the lazy stupid coward can call when they’re serious about the CR and DL. Then put up a 1-800 number where they can be reached even at 3 in the morning. Put the number (1-800-DaHouse or something) on a posterboard and easel and have a picture of it broadcast 24/7 on C-Span. With a counter marking the hours and days before they are contacted by the Dems.

I would prefer that in addition to the shutdown, we also hit a debt limit. This would be, in essence, a BBA without out actually passing one. We will not default!!!!, but the entitlement programs will take a severe beating. It must happen sooner or later. Why not do it now? why wait for $20TT or $30TT?

Hah. Just do nothing and see what happens. Which will be…nothing much. Interest on treasuries will still be paid. Just means that the government will have to survive on nothing more than money coming in. So…furlough about 20% of most government agencies. Reduce or defer payments on contracts with civilian contractors.

And that is all. No disaster.

We heard all this crap before with the sequester. Wait until people see that the effect is minimal. No way the government can’t cut 20% fat.

The problem will be the Obeyme emperor will probably make “stupid” cuts to maximize pain. And with the lying MSM that will work in the short term. But in the long term no because enough popular pressure will arise that social security will still be paid in full. Beyond that, who cares.

I don’t know why Boehner doesn’t just step in front of the TV cameras and explain that the congress is a co-equal branch of government and until the White House acknowledges that fact, there is nothing further to discuss.

If the President thinks he can run the country by decree, then we are adjourning and going home. Let’s see how that works out.

What Ed and Allah never do seem to want to answer is: If we give Dingy Harry and President Petulant what they want then why support the GOP at all in the first place?

tphillip on October 15, 2013 at 11:30 AM

They’re no better than Democrats. Because the GOP only controls the House they have no right to stand up for fiscal responsiblity or smaller government. We must bow down before the lazy stupid coward in the White House and give him whatever he may demand. Sure, on occassion the GOP might get a few crumbs but on balance Obama must be obeyed without question.

We’ll see. In a way, this would be a perfect ending to this trainwreck: A big show of “toughness” that will almost certainly backfire politically while gaining the party almost nothing in concessions.

Depends…

Many conservatives are finding out the GOP leadership is awful and will need to be replaced OR a new party will need to be formed. Even Hannity is now figuring this out. AP the GOP is about to lose its army because for the last 15 years, since they ran Newt out, the party decided it would rather be fat and happy instead of working for a cause…heck any cause, and for its base. It is important to reach out and find new voters but you can’t have a political party without a base to build from. Too many times this party has punked it’s foot soldiers.

We get to this point a long time ago…either the GOP RINOs step down from leadership positions and give party back to the troops or the troops are going to find new leaders.

Ever heard of the Treaty of Arbroath…

“Yet if he (King Robert the Bruce) should give up what he has begun, and agree to make us or our kingdom subject to the King of England or the English, we should exert ourselves at once to drive him out as our enemy and a subverter of his own rights and ours, and make some other man who was well able to defend us our King; for, as long as but a hundred of us remain alive, never will we on any conditions be brought under English rule. It is in truth not for glory, nor riches, nor honours that we are fighting, but for freedom — for that alone, which no honest man gives up but with life itself.”

The party leadership sucks and has had a history of selling out its base. It is time for a new king…

Gotta say…looks like with no raise to the debt limit… the Republicans have stumbled upon a round about way of a Balanced Budget Amendment…..Now the GubRmint will have no choice but to live within the means of tax revenues… NOW THE QUESTION IS…. do the Republicans really mean all that crapola about smaller GubRmint or are they just like the…spend… spend… spend…borrow… DEMOCRATS.

Oh boy, Bonehead can’t get the votes, where did all the GOP spine come from; McCain must be over in the senate chambers frothing at the mouth and ripping the stuffing from his chair in a rage.

Bishop on October 15, 2013 at 11:48 AM

I told my House Representative that I will actively work for his ouster if he votes for allowing Obamacare to proceed. I then told him I had 22 other people who would do the same from my job. Those 22 people and any others in the mean time that I can get will get more people to do the same. His choice. All 23 of us will vote for any primary challenger and if that fails, for the democrat. Unfortunately, I do not have any relatives living here.

Harry Reid wants to dictate the budget to the House in an obscene power play to try and concentrate power in the Senate.

ajacksonian on October 15, 2013 at 11:51 AM

At this point, it is about punishing the GOP, more specifically those “Tea Baggers.” They need to be taught a lesson about upsetting the established political class.

In this Reid is joined by a bunch of so-called moderate conservatives and I wouldn’t be surprised if a HA moderator or two were among the ranks of those who are pushing complete cave because the “tea baggers” have become to uppity.

As Ed noted in the last post, I don’t understand why, with so little time left, Boehner and Reid are haggling over penny ante concessions instead of agreeing on a clean debt-ceiling hike in the name of averting technical default.

Wow … the first gleam of truth from Hot Air in two weeks!

RINO’s/GOPe-media types like yourselves are PERFECTLY happy to give ground and perpetually WAIT for something to break in the Republicans favor.

When your first approach to any contest of wills is to compromise – you don’t have ANY principles.

This makes Obama the perfect President for the RINO’s – he’ll demand something, RINO’s offer compromise, he stamps his feet & RINO’s cave completely like parents with a spoiled child.

Outside of the Beltway, there is a WORLD of misery. The American economy is in a FULL recession.

Our latest generation can’t find good jobs, can’t pay their student loans and are now about to be RAPED by Obamacare – and the RINO answer is “Just wait.”

The Federal Reserve’s QE is EXPORTING inflation to our trading partners, setting the dollar up to be abandoned as the world reserve currrency, literally causing additional starvation in the world – and the RINO answer is “Just wait.”

NO!The Washington Insider Games (both party establishments) stop NOW!

Leave the government “shut down” by having 10% of the workers furloughed.

Leave the debt ceiling where it is – this will FORCE “pay as you go” as the path forward.

MAKE the ruling elites and their servants in the media face fear and uncertainty like the rest of the us have had to face for the last FIVE years.

Look, there isn’t now, nor has there ever been, any reason for the GOP, ‘conservative’ bloggers, journalists, etc – to be remotely concerned with asking what will play well with the public, the media, who will be blamed or get credit, etc – we know the answer, and if there are two choices – A or B – no matter what the choice is, the GOP will be blamed for problems, and the Dems will be credited for being the statesmen, the adults, etc.

Period. End of sentence. No exceptions.

This deal – if it goes south, its the Republicans’ fault. If it is agreed to, it will be because Obama and Reid are master negotiators and brought the House to heel. If the House leaves town, it will be because they are evil and don’t care. If Obama and Reid refuse to negotiate, it’s not that *they* are evil, they’re blah and this and yadda and that…

Get it?

HA et al – *stop*, already, with the hand-wringing about how this and that are hurting the GOP – concern yourselves, ladies and gentlemen, because the time is probably already too late for it, but concern yourselves *only* with asking ‘what is the right thing to do’, and pushing people of both parties to *do it*.

Nothing more, nothing less. Politics, polls, fretting over popularity be damned, people. Seriously – there’s no time to continue being squishy and letting the liberal politicians and media f*ck everyone up the backside, okay?

When things are going well, the economy is roaring, etc – we can afford to be ‘stupid’ and consider whether we *want* to do something or not, perhaps.

We don’t the luxury of debating things this or that party *want* to do, it’s an existential question now – it’s about whether we *can* do a thing or not. We’re doing a shitload of stupid things we simply can no longer do in terms of regulation, spending, etc – if we hope to survive.

The house is getting rolled. Just pass a clean CR extending it for 6 months and a 3 month DLI and adjourn.

Hold a damn press conference and outline all the different bills sent to either die in the senate or be outright rejected by the WH.

Go on record stating you will give Obamacare exchanges 6 months then all bets are off.

can_con on October 15, 2013 at 11:57 AM

NO, NO, NO – because this will keep happening…….

This is where we take a stand. Don’t let the democrats get off with being able to go through Christmas thinking they can keep rolling the house…..
Screw Reid – the democrats in The Senate will be the ones to pay the price……

That’s a big problem for the president. Nothing can be more frightening to liberal politicians than proving how little impact many federal programs have on the day-to-day lives of individual Americans. If nobody notices when they’re missing, it’s hard to argue against trimming the size of government.

So, the president is stuck with an impossible dilemma. If he tries to make the shutdown as painless as possible for the public, he loses all political leverage. If he tries to make people feel his pain, he looks like a bully. If he makes a deal with Republicans, his political base will be demoralized heading into the midterm election. If he doesn’t, and the standoff continues, calls for more permanent spending cuts will grow.

The choices so far have been relatively easy. While there have been bad headlines about the National Park Service blocking veterans from war memorials and other tourist attractions, those stories haven’t become a dominant narrative mainly because of their small scale.

So the president and his administration are threatening to bring out the big guns. There have been hints that Social Security benefits might not be paid in full. That would certainly get the public’s attention. But is the president really ready to tell people that there is no trust fund and that the government’s been lying about it for seven decades?

The budget problem can just sit and fester with the government dropping off parts as it marches around without cash.

Obama’s problem with the debt limit is that upkeep of debt maintenance is done first with incoming funds. Then anything else on budget gets payouts after that… which isn’t all that much at the moment… and the rest that isn’t accounted for? SSA and the M&Ms, but what comes in won’t cover them in full. Bad news, Barry, you get to explain that the trust fund isn’t a trust fund, that an account is just numbers on paper and that FICA is just a tax that is spent the year it is taken in.