What do the federal election results mean for Edmonton and Alberta?

Incoming Prime Minister Justin Trudeau at a rally in Edmonton in the summer of 2014.

With the excitement of the 2015 federal election one week behind us, now is a good time to take a look at how the results of the election could impact Edmonton and Alberta. The reality of a majority Liberal government in Ottawa will make Conservative Albertans uneasy, but there is little reason to believe this new government will lead to doom and gloom for our province.

Liberal growth in Conservative AlbertaConservative Party candidates earned 59 percent of the vote and elected candidates in 29 of Alberta’s 34 federal ridings. The Liberals broke a nearly five decade long drought in Calgary with the election of Kent Hehr in Calgary-Centre and Darshan Kang in Calgary-Skyview. In Edmonton, two Liberals were elected in bellwether ridings – Randy Boissonnault in Edmonton-Centre and Amarjeet Sohi in Edmonton-Mill Woods. Since 1984, these two Edmonton ridings have elected MPs belonging to the party in government. (Note: the election results in Edmonton-Mill Woods will face a judicial recount).

The “Class of 2015”There was a significant turnover in Alberta’s representation in Ottawa, with 18 of 34 Members of Parliament from our province being elected for the first time, including seven first-time MPs representing Edmonton ridings. This ‘class of 2015’ includes four Liberals and fourteen Conservatives.

Alberta in CabinetIt is expected that Alberta will have representation in the federal cabinet but it is not clear how large that representation will be. In my opinion, it would be a grave mistake for incoming Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to not appoint a cabinet minister from both Edmonton and Calgary. The third and fifth largest municipalities in Canada should have representation at the highest levels in Ottawa. These large urban centres also represent an area of future electoral growth for the federal Liberal Party. In Calgary, the Liberals earned a surprising 30 percent of the vote and in Edmonton they earned 23 percent. The new cabinet will be sworn-in on Nov. 4, 2015.

Federal-Provincial RelationsWe have already witnessed a change in tone that could signal a significant improvement in the federal government’s relationship with the provinces. In the first week after the election, Mr. Trudeau invited provincial premiers to join Canada’s delegation to the important COP21 Climate Change Conference in Paris in November. Mr. Trudeau has also indicated his intention to negotiate a new health accord with the provinces.

Alberta-Ottawa Relations
The relationship between Ottawa and Edmonton would have been sour had Stephen Harper’s Conservatives been re-elected. After attacking Alberta’s NDP government numerous times during the campaign, it is unlikely that Mr. Harper and Premier Rachel Notley would have been able to develop the kind of productive working relationship that would benefit Albertans.

Even though she appeared on stage with NDP leader Tom Mulcair in the final days of the election campaign, Ms. Notley has indicated that she was willing to work with whoever became the next Prime Minister. If she and Mr. Trudeau can develop a good working relationship, Canadians may see progress on issues like pipeline expansion in the next four years. Although Mr. Harper was a vocal supporter of Canada’s oil and gas industry, he failed to secure the construction of new pipeline projects during his decade as Prime Minister.

A Municipal AgendaThe Liberals promised increased investment in public infrastructure and increased funding for municipal public transit projects. During his three-terms on city council, Mr. Sohi has been an vocal advocate for expanded Light-Rail Transit funding in southeast Edmonton. Mayor Don Iveson has been critical of the Conservative government’s lack of commitment to LRT funding in the past.

Conservative LeadershipWith Mr. Harper’s resignation as leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, that party will be thrust into a contest to select a new leader. While that party may seek to choose a new leader from another region of Canada, it is expected that Conservative MPs from Alberta will be candidates in that race. Already, there is speculation that Calgary-Nose Hill MP Michelle Rempel and Calgary-Midnapore MP Jason Kenney are interested in seeking the leadership.

Liberals and NDP in the WestWestern Canada is no longer a monolith of the Conservative Party support. With British Columbia and Manitoba electing more Liberal MPs than Conservative MPs, Alberta and Saskatchewan are now the only provinces where Conservatives outnumber other parties. While the Conservatives remain strong in the rural west, that party has lost ground to the Liberals and NDP in the western urban centres of Calgary, Edmonton, Regina, Saskatoon, and Winnipeg. Twenty of the NDP’s 44 MPs and 29 of the 184 Liberal MPs were elected in ridings west of Ontario.

Trudeau wave bad news for Notley?
Conservative critics have already predicted that the rise of the federal Liberals in Alberta spells bad news for Ms. Notley’s provincial NDP. I suspect that the results of this federal election will have little impact on the level of NDP support in the next provincial election. It has been clear for some time that Mr. Mulcair is unpopular in Alberta. His noticeable absence from the province during the spring election campaign and low support for the federal NDP in four by-elections since 2011 suggests that Mr. Mulcair’s unpopularity has little impact on Ms. Notley’s political fortunes.

I’d go a step further with the outlook for the provincial governing NDP – I think it’s excellent news. They now have a partner with whom they can work, but they can still get distance from and even run against the federal government when needed.

I only hope the idiot organizers of the federal NDP campaign strategy don’t intend on landing in Alberta for government jobs. And if they do, I hope the locals shake their hands and give them a “thanks anyway”.

Um, let me rephrase that: Edmonton Centre may be a “bellwether” of sorts, even before 1984, but it would be hard to argue that any Liberal or Conservative elected in the district (which disappeared for a while, to be no indicator of any kind) signified much about Alberta, beyond some sort of schizophrenic-maverick tendency… the slim margins of victory are the real story… https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edmonton_Centre

It would be nice (and fair) if liberal and conservative writers and supporters ever acknowledged that in particular circumstances their side benefits from FPTP. Liberals complained that Harper only had 30 odd percent of the vote but was PM and Conservatives made the same arguments over Chretien.
FPTP has always produced lopsided results – those that defend the system talk of “stability” and majority governments.
I guess I am cynical, but I don’t see Trudeau (who clearly benefited from FPTP) changing this system. If we had some fair system and based on the current results the Libs would have 135 seats, the Tories 108 and NDP 68. I hope he proves me wrong and implements a fair PR system.

I always have found it strange that the Davebertas and Babiuks of the world turn into old school 1950s-believers that a cabinet minister is responsible for bringing home the bacon for their region.

The 4 Liberal MPs will be in caucus, they will sit on committees, they can engage departments as MPs, but Cabinet ministers should not be thought to have an eye on how to deliver the pork to keep their hometown happy. Ministers are to think for the country as a whole and as a country it might make sense to put resources into elsewhere than AB. It is not the 1950s, please stop asking for extra bacon.

Glad your vote in Edmonton Griesbach went to Janis Irwin….not that it was a close race. Kerry Diotte’s much smaller election team simply beat the NDP by simply out working them . Irwin’s team claim that she was ahead in the polls up to the end was foolhardy. Diotte and his team put their heads down and got out their vote. Let’s make it clear, Edmonton Griesbach has within it areas represented by 3 provincial ministers,Mason,Eggen and Bilous. Hmmm…… Diotte should be given his just dues Dave on a win based on hard work alone. So much for polls

The opinions expressed on this blog represent my own and not those of my employer or any organization I may be affiliated with.

In addition, my thoughts and opinions change from time to time. I consider this a necessary consequence of having an open mind. This blog is intended to provide a semi-permanent point in time snapshot and manifestation of the various ideas running around my brain, and as such any thoughts and opinions expressed within out-of-date posts may not the same, nor even similar, to those I may hold today.

Dave Cournoyer is a writer and political watcher living in Edmonton, Alberta. Contact him at david.cournoyer@gmail.com.