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1 Peter A. Brown, Assistant Director, (203) Tim Malloy, Assistant Director (203) Rubenstein Associates, Inc., Public Relations Pat Smith (212) FOR RELEASE: MAY 10, 2016 CLINTON-TRUMP CLOSE IN FLORIDA, OHIO, PENNSYLVANIA, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY SWING STATE POLL FINDS --- FLORIDA: Clinton 43 Trump 42; Sanders 44 Trump 42 OHIO: Clinton 39 Trump 43; Sanders 43 Trump 41 PENNSYLVANIA: Clinton 43 Trump 42; Sanders 47 Trump 41 In a race marked by wide gender, age and racial gaps, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are running neck and neck in the key presidential Swing States of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, but Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont runs stronger against the likely Republican nominee, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released today. Clinton and Trump both have negative favorability ratings among voters in each state, compared to Sanders split score, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds. The Swing State Poll focuses on Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania because since 1960 no candidate has won the presidential race without taking at least two of these three states. The presidential matchups show: Florida Clinton at 43 percent, with 42 percent for Trump and Sanders at 44 percent to Trump s 42 percent; Ohio Trump edges Clinton percent, while Sanders gets 43 percent to Trump s 41 percent; Pennsylvania Clinton at 43 percent to Trump s 42 percent, while Sanders leads Trump percent. Six months from Election Day, the presidential races between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in the three most crucial states, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, are too close to call, said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll. At this juncture, Trump is doing better in Pennsylvania than the GOP nominees in 2008 and And the two candidates are about where their party predecessors were at this point in Ohio and Florida. -more-

2 Quinnipiac University Poll/May 10, 2016 page 2 This election may be good for divorce lawyers. The gender gap is massive and currently benefits Trump, Brown added. In Pennsylvania, Clinton s 19-point lead among women matches Trump s 21-point margin among men. In Ohio, she is up 7 points among women but down 15 points with men. In Florida she is up 13 points among women but down 13 points among men. Trump would do a better job handling the economy, voters say. He also would do a better job handling terrorism, voters in Florida and Ohio say. Pennsylvania voters are divided. By wide margins, voters in all three states say Clinton is more intelligent than Trump and by smaller margins, voters in all three states say she has higher moral standards. Florida A percent lead among women gives Clinton an overall score of 43 percent. Trump s percent lead among men gives him 42 percent of all voters. Independent voters are divided percent. White voters go Republican percent, while non-white voters go Democratic percent. Voters 18 to 34 years old back Clinton percent, while voters over 65 years old back Trump percent. Clinton and Trump each get a negative percent favorability rating. Florida voters say percent that Trump would do a better job than Clinton handling the economy, and say percent that he would be better on terrorism. Voters say percent that Clinton is more intelligent than Trump and percent that she has higher moral standards. Clinton has the temperament to handle an international crisis, Florida voters say percent. Trump does not, voters say percent. Florida voters support percent, including percent among Democrats, requiring voters to show photo ID. Illegal immigrants should be allowed to stay in the U.S. and apply for citizenship, 57 percent of voters say, while 11 percent say they can stay but not apply for citizenship and 25 percent say they should be required to leave the U.S. Florida voters split percent on whether the U.S. should build a wall along the Mexican border. Men support the wall percent, with women opposed percent. White voters want a wall percent, with non-white voters opposed percent. Republicans weakness among minority voters is well known. But the reason this race is so close overall is Clinton s historic weakness among white men. In Florida, she is getting just 25 percent from white men, Brown said. -more- 2

3 Quinnipiac University Poll/May 10, 2016 page 3 Ohio The gender and racial gaps are wide in Ohio, where Trump edges Clinton percent. He leads percent among men, while she takes women percent. White voters go Republican percent, as non-white voters vote Democratic percent. The age gap narrows as voters 18 to 34 years old go 43 percent for Clinton and 39 percent for Trump, while voters over 65 go 46 percent for Trump and 40 percent for Clinton. Independent voters go 40 percent for Trump and 37 percent for Clinton. Clinton gets a negative percent favorability, compared to Trump s negative percent. Trump would do a better job than Clinton handling the economy, Ohio voters say percent. He also would be better on terrorism, voters say percent. Ohio voters say percent Clinton is more intelligent than Trump and by a narrow percent that she has higher moral standards. Clinton has the temperament to handle an international crisis, Ohio voters say percent, while Trump does not, voters say percent. Voters support percent requiring voters to show photo ID. Democrats are divided with 50 percent in favor of photo ID and 48 percent opposed. Illegal immigrants should be allowed to stay in the U.S. and apply for citizenship, 54 percent of voters say, while 9 percent say they can stay but not apply for citizenship and 31 percent say they should be required to leave the U.S. Ohio voters oppose percent building a wall along the border with Mexico. White voters are divided as 50 percent want a wall, with 46 percent opposed. Non-white voters are opposed percent. Ohioans oppose The Wall percent, while they are overwhelmingly in favor of requiring a photo ID for anyone wanting to vote, Brown said. They are happy with the economy and satisfied with the way things are going in the state all of which is a nice testament to Gov. John Kasich, who dropped out of the White House race last week, but might be back as Trump s running mate. Pennsylvania It s the same story of gender and racial gaps in Pennsylvania, where Clinton gets 43 percent to Trump s 42 percent. Women back Clinton percent, while men go to Trump percent. White voters go Republican percent, while non-white voters go Democratic percent. -more- 3

4 Quinnipiac University Poll/May 10, 2016 page 4 Clinton edges Trump percent among voters 18 to 34 years old, while Trump has a slim percent lead among voters over 65 years old. Clinton and Trump both have negative favorability ratings, percent for her and percent for him. Pennsylvania voters say percent that Trump would do a better job than Clinton handling the economy. They are divided on who best would handle terrorism, as 47 percent say Trump and 46 percent say Clinton. Clinton is more intelligent than Trump, Pennsylvania voters say percent and she has higher moral standards, voters say percent. Clinton has the temperament to handle an international crisis, Pennsylvania voters say percent, while Trump does not, voters say percent. Voters support percent requiring voters to show photo ID. Support is 94 6 percent among Republicans and percent among independent voters. Democrats are opposed percent. Illegal immigrants should be allowed to stay in the U.S. and apply for citizenship, 58 percent of voters say, while 10 percent say they can stay but not apply for citizenship and 27 percent say they should be required to leave the U.S. Pennsylvania voters oppose percent building a wall along the border with Mexico. White voters are divided as 49 percent want a wall with 47 percent opposed. Non-white voters are opposed percent. Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are locked in Pennsylvania and they have similar, awful numbers on honesty and favorability, said Tim Malloy, assistant Director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. The one glaring difference: Trump is crushed on the question of which candidate has the temperament and personality to handle an international crisis. It s a vote of confidence the Clinton camp can dine out on and Trump supporters have to see as a red flag. From April 27 May 8 Quinnipiac University surveyed: 1,051 Florida voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points; 1,042 Ohio voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points; 1,077 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research. Visit or poll. Call (203) , or follow us on 4

5 1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote? Clinton 43% 39% 43% Trump SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Bernie Sanders the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote? Sanders 44% 43% 47% Trump SMONE ELSE(VOL) WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) DK/NA Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? Favorable 37% 34% 37% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED Is your opinion of Bernie Sanders favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Favorable 43% 45% 50% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Favorable 37% 36% 39% Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED

6 11. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job handling the economy - Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump? Clinton 40% 40% 42% Trump DK/NA Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job handling terrorism - Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump? Clinton 43% 43% 46% Trump DK/NA In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in - (FL) Florida / (OH) Ohio / (PA) Pennsylvania - today; are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied? Very satisfied 9% 13% 4% Smwht satisfied Smwht dissatisfied Very dissatisfied DK/NA Would you describe the state of - (FL) Florida's / (OH) Ohio's / (PA) Pennsylvania's - economy these days as excellent, good, not so good, or poor? Excellent 5% 4% 1% Good Not so good Poor DK/NA Do you think - (FL) Florida's / (OH) Ohio's / (PA) Pennsylvania's - economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same? Better 34% 35% 16% Worse The same DK/NA

7 16. Would you say that you are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago? Better off 47% 50% 39% Worse off SAME(VOL) DK/NA Would you say that Hillary Clinton - is honest and trustworthy or not? Yes 29% 27% 30% No DK/NA Would you say that Donald Trump - is honest and trustworthy or not? Yes 38% 35% 39% No DK/NA Would you say that Hillary Clinton - has strong leadership qualities or not? Yes 53% 54% 58% No DK/NA Would you say that Donald Trump - has strong leadership qualities or not? Yes 60% 61% 62% No DK/NA Would you say that Hillary Clinton - cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? Yes 41% 44% 44% No DK/NA

8 22. Would you say that Donald Trump - cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? Yes 40% 37% 39% No DK/NA Would you say that Hillary Clinton - has the right kind of temperament and personality to handle an international crisis as President, or not? Yes 54% 51% 55% No DK/NA Would you say that Donald Trump - has the right kind of temperament and personality to handle an international crisis as President, or not? Yes 34% 29% 33% No DK/NA Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think has higher moral standards: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump? Clinton 46% 43% 48% Trump DK/NA Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think is more intelligent: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump? Clinton 52% 47% 52% Trump DK/NA As you may know, there have been efforts in some states to require voters to show a photo identification card to vote. Some people say this is needed to prevent people from voting who are not eligible to vote. Other people say such efforts are designed 8

9 to suppress voting by minorities. What do you think: do you support or oppose efforts to require voters to show a photo identification card to vote? Support 77% 75% 64% Oppose DK/NA Which comes closest to your view about illegal immigrants who are currently living in the United States? A) They should be allowed to stay in the United States and to eventually apply for U.S. citizenship. B) They should be allowed to remain in the United States, but not be allowed to apply for U.S. citizenship. C) They should be required to leave the U.S. A) Stay/Citizenship 57% 54% 58% B) Stay/Not citizen C) Not stay DK/NA Would you support or oppose building a wall along the border with Mexico? Support 48% 45% 45% Oppose DK/NA

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