As to the first bolded section, why can't you let him walk away? Because, we can't get another player of his talent level to sign here? I don't buy that argument, but some on this site do, but even if we accept that we can't get a replacement for him, does that mean we have to pay him a max contract? I'm not exactly sure how it works, but I assume that a max contract would be 100+x% of his current salary and probably puts us in the Joe Johnson salary range of 22 mill per season plus... Are you really okay with paying RUDY GAY 22+ million/season, basically paying him more than Lebron, or Durant? Really? I mean really, really?

As to the second bold, I agree, the raps have to over pay. But what is Rudy's value? Honestly, based on his play with Memphis and Toronto, I'd say he's worth 12 mill per season. I think that's absolutely fair. So I'm fine with overpaying 3 mill a season, but any deal over 15mil/season is going to be difficult to stomach, let alone paying Gay 22+ mill a season? That's overpaying by just about double and I am not okay with that. If a guy wants double of what he's worth, you have to let him go. Or let him try is luck elsewhere and then offer him a little bit more than what any other team is offering, and hope that the extra soothes his ego enough to justify signing with you even though you had the guts to NOT offer him what he thinks he's worth.

But I'm curious, what do you think is fair rate, and his market rate? For gay based on his production versus other people who are producing similar rates, I'd say a fair rate 12 mill/season, but his market rate is probably 14 mill. So I can stomach paying him 15, but if he wants more than that, I think you have to let him walk.

Have the Raptors ever been able to attract a player of his calibre in free agency, ever? Chances are if the trade with Memphis never presented itself we'd still be sitting here with cap space but no talented player willing take it. Not trying to argue, but the franchise history is proof that this is true, so I'm in the opinion that lacking flexibility is no big deal if we have talented player(s) to show for it.

Have the Raptors ever been able to attract a player of his calibre in free agency, ever? Chances are if the trade with Memphis never presented itself we'd still be sitting here with cap space but no talented player willing take it. Not trying to argue, but the franchise history is proof that this is true, so I'm in the opinion that lacking flexibility is no big deal if we have talented player(s) to show for it.

I tend to agree.

Cap flexibility doesn't mean much if you're not Miami, New York or LA.

But in those cases it won't be 1 on 5 and the players that are already back on defense generally aren't in the best position to rebound. Say it's 2-3 or even 4: the attacking players will be in a much better place to rebound, there is more space between players where the ball can land and, because of their position facing the basket, the attacking players have an easier time getting to it.

Makes sense in theory, but how often do we see rushed shots resulting in offensive rebounds? Based on my recollection, not very often at all.

Makes sense in theory, but how often do we see rushed shots resulting in offensive rebounds? Based on my recollection, not very often at all.

I'd like some stats on it, just out of curiosity. I looked at the ORR at hoopdata just to get an indication; funny thing is that the top 4 teams in ORR are made up of three slow paced (good defensive) teams in Memphis (1), Indiana (3) and Chicago (4), while one of the teams with a fast pace is number two (Denver). In my recollection this happens quite often, but not as often with the Raptors (Bargnani!).

Even if it's true about the owners having shitballs of money and willing to spend, it still doesn't justify over paying. I mean if you sign him now, you have to sign him for max. If you want until he's a free agent, you are much more likely to pay him less. If you want until the offseason, the worst case scenario is that someone offers him the max, so you also offer the max (which is a more because you have his bird rights), if his stock is lower you still over pay, but if his value is 11-12 mill, maybe you get away with 13.5-15 mill? At this point is Rudy Gay better than Nic Bantum? Compare their career advanced stats

Nic's a better shooter, passer, and blocks has a better Ortg and WS/48
Rudy's has a better PER, better rebounder, steals and tied for Drtg the biggest difference is usage 24% - 18%

Batum also doesn't make more than 11.9 in any season of his contact.

Why!?!?!?

EDIT: Here's a list of SF's that can be realistically compare with Rudy, either in terms or production or salary (I didn't include any rookie contracts) so you can compare for yourself

Joe Johnson 24.9 2015-2016

Melo 23.5 player option in 2014-2015

Lebron 22.1 player option in 2015-2016 (has a player option in 2014-2015 as well)

Durant 21.2 in 2015-2016

Gay 19.3 2014-2015 player option

Pierce 16.8 this year 15.3 next year

Andre Iguodala 15.9 player optionnext year

Loul Deng 14.3 next year

Danny Granger 14 mil next year

Batum 11.9 2015-2016

There are 4 players above him in terms of salary, two of which are definitely better and should make more (Lebron, Durant) I'm not sure whether you can say absolutely, that Joe Johnson or Melo is better than Gay or vise-versa, so you can argue that his contract is more reasonable (or less crazy) than those two.

There are 5 players below him, and I think you can argue that every one of them is better than he is, just like you can argue that he is better than any/all of them. Outside of Pierce, a future HOF'er, who will definitely make less on his next contract, he's going to make between 3.4mil and 7.4mill MORE in his highest paid season, than any of these guys. Iggy, Granger, Pierce, and Deng, will all have new contracts by 2014-2015. Are any of them going to get max money? I don't think so.

IMO You do NOT have to offer Gay MAX money, because NOBODY ELSE IS GOING TO. Unfortunately, you have to have a little patience.

If BC offers an extension of less than 14 mil a year, I'm okay with that. I am NOT okay with offering more than 15 mil. If you have to offer more than 15mil to get him to sign his extension, than wait it out.

Fun Fact: The Phoenix Suns do not have any contracts on the books through 2015/2016 that pays a player more than 7.5 mill in any one season.

We both agree that he is not a max money player. What we disagree on is that you think that if he's not a max money player, the team should wait until he becomes a free agent while I think that the team should be able to(wait) but unfortunately can't. Simply because they may and most probably will lose him. Chris Bosh is the best example of that only difference being he was worth max money. I agree that Raps should offer around 14/15 mil. per year extn., but unfortunately it won't suffice. Max money is what it's going to take.

Of the list of players you mentioned, I believe that Lebron, Melo, Joe Johnson, Durant and Pierce are better. While the first four named justifiably make max money, Pierce understandably doesn't because of his age. Igoudala, Deng, Granger and Batum are arguably equally good only Gay is a much better clutch player. He comes good when it matters.

All said, I think Raps. should explore trade options before signing him to an extension.

I haven't read the full thread, so forgive me if this question was already asked....but doesn't this rumour give a slight indication that Colangelo will be here next season (that is, assuming the rumour is true).

The fact that BC's option year has not been picked up yet means that people should not take the rumour too seriously.

Cap flexibility is key for trades too though. We have no flexibility and (even worse) very few movable assets thanks to large contracts to poor performers.

Along this thinking, the decision to extend Gay really has no impact on the team's financial flexibility. Regardless of an extension, the team's only options for adding anything more than an MLE free agent, is via S&T using Bargnani and/or DeRozan.

Even if the team declines the team option on Lucas and uses the amnesty on Kleiza, the team's no further ahead. Hell, even if Kleiza retires and the amnesty is used on Bargnani, the team still can't sign any free agents aside from using exceptions!

Along this thinking, the decision to extend Gay really has no impact on the team's financial flexibility. Regardless of an extension, the team's only options for adding anything more than an MLE free agent, is via S&T using Bargnani and/or DeRozan.

Even if the team declines the team option on Lucas and uses the amnesty on Kleiza, the team's no further ahead. Hell, even if Kleiza retires and the amnesty is used on Bargnani, the team still can't sign any free agents aside from using exceptions!

Very true. My comment was in a general sense. The Raps are hosed for flexibility for a while.

Along this thinking, the decision to extend Gay really has no impact on the team's financial flexibility. Regardless of an extension, the team's only options for adding anything more than an MLE free agent, is via S&T using Bargnani and/or DeRozan.

Even if the team declines the team option on Lucas and uses the amnesty on Kleiza, the team's no further ahead. Hell, even if Kleiza retires and the amnesty is used on Bargnani, the team still can't sign any free agents aside from using exceptions!

While this is true, you have to keep in mind that just because we would have the ability to sign someone else in a sign and trade if we didn't trade for Gay, is that the opportunity doesn't come by all the time and for a player of his calibre in a position of need. The opportunity was there and the Raptors took it. Just because we would have had the space to sign Dwight Howard or Chris Paul, doesn't mean the opportunity to get either player would be there.

All the talk last season was that once the tax kicks in uder the new CBA there would be teams looking to unload talent to avoid the luxury tax and that teams with cap space will be in a good position to scoop those players up. Well that is just what happened with Memphis whom were one of the top teams everyone said would be looking to unload talent to avoid the tax.

It's getting supremely annoying that everyone is bitching about this teams lack of flexibility to sign an elite player other than Rudy Gay, like the opportunity to do so comes along everyday.

The crucial thing for teams that are going to be around the tax or over will be maintaining a nuclear option... being able to blow things up if they go all screwy. For the Raptors, this blowup option is in 2015, when Gay, Bargnani, Johnson, and Fields all expire. Right now, DeRozan, Valanciunas, Ross, and Acy are the only players who go beyond this, and they add up to just over $20 million in 15/16 (team options on all three rookies). If the Raptors retain Gay and Lowry for around $30 million for the pair, that's just over $50 million committed at that point (plus likely at least two more rookies from 2014 and 2015 drafts). If the Raptors don't make any other long-term commitments, then I think they're in solid shape at that point. If you've got a contender, great, you keep that group together. If not (which is much more likely), you can let Bargnani, Johnson and Fields expire or trade them, you free up enough cap space that you can actually make a big move (by 2015, $50 million might be as much as $15 million under the cap), and add an impact player to a roster that is still very young and in its prime (all guys 28 or younger), and with every key guy on that roster signed for at least through to the end of 2016/17.

Now, if you can convince Lowry and Gay that they're part of something special and that they should take a bit less than market value to stay, then every dollar saved is going to increase the effectiveness of that blow-up, even if it doesn't help their short-term flexibility. If we could, say, get Lowry for $10m and Gay for $16m, then you might be close to $20m in cap space.

Is 2015 a good year to do a blow-up? Well, our biggest priority is likely going to be another big-man, and that offseason could potentially have M. Gasol, Hibbert, both Lopezes, Asik, Perkins, Chandler, Jordan, Love, Aldridge, Bosh, Stoudemire, Randolf, Scola, Boozer, and a lot of lesser players, depending on how player options break down. Plus a lot of star players at other positions, who will draw a lot of attention. In other words, a good year to be looking for a key piece. That offseason also marks a potiential shift in the balance of power in the east, since it could mark the end (or the beginning of the end) of the Knicks and Heat superstar combos. Both the Knicks and Heat are going to be well into the repeater rate if they try to keep their current cores together.

I'm still in favour of trading Bargnani when a decent offer comes up, however I'm pessimistic that this happens. A best-case trade keeps our nuclear option intact. A Boozer trade would be perfect, since it expires in 2015 too, but would allow us to play better in the interim.

So I don't think extending Gay necessarily kills the team's long-term flexibility, like some others have said. Short-term, yeah, we've got no flexibility regardless of whether we extend Gay now. I'm okay with the current core sticking together for a couple years, being a middle of the pack playoff team, and hopefully establishing a reputation that they can build on to attract another key piece in 2015.

While this is true, you have to keep in mind that just because we would have the ability to sign someone else in a sign and trade if we didn't trade for Gay, is that the opportunity doesn't come by all the time and for a player of his calibre in a position of need. The opportunity was there and the Raptors took it. Just because we would have had the space to sign Dwight Howard or Chris Paul, doesn't mean the opportunity to get either player would be there.

All the talk last season was that once the tax kicks in uder the new CBA there would be teams looking to unload talent to avoid the luxury tax and that teams with cap space will be in a good position to scoop those players up. Well that is just what happened with Memphis whom were one of the top teams everyone said would be looking to unload talent to avoid the tax.

It's getting supremely annoying that everyone is bitching about this teams lack of flexibility to sign an elite player other than Rudy Gay, like the opportunity to do so comes along everyday.

I'm certainly not knocking the acquisition of Gay, I was one of the strongest supporters of targeting Gay since the summer, along with Matt. I still think it was a great move and hope he does re-sign long-term.

I was speaking more about from now moving forward, illustrating how Gay's extension wouldn't even have a negative impact on flexibility, because the team's flexibility is being hindered by several big contracts.

After thinking for a day or two, I think any attempt to sign Gay is premature this summer.

The topic could surely be broached but it would seem, at least to me, the Raptors would be better off waiting to see how next year plays out.

Not to turn this in to Bargnani time (yet again) but the Raps need to see what they have without him and what he might bring.

Also the Raps need to see if Gay can elevate his game and fit in Toronto (from a basketball sense) leading to a competitive franchise. He certainly has immense talent but as we know talent doesn't fill the win column alone (although it is probably the most important thing with desire coming a close 2nd).

I don't think there is any risk of Gay turning down his $19M option. He will be just turning 29 when his player option is up. He will be able to secure at least one more meaningful/significant contract in his career at that time.

The most the Raptors can extend him for this year is 2 seasons. Basically, unless the Raps are going to pay him Joe Johnson money (which we can't rule out because Colangelo is offering the contract - Jesus, Mary, and Joseph *sigh*), adding 2 years now does little for either party (Gay or Toronto).

Wait until next summer and if things work out as we hope, add another 3 years at that time. Or wait until the player option is up (summer 2015) and add 4 years at that time. But adding 2 years this summer is not in anyone's best interests.

If Gay decides to opt out after next year it means it was a failure of a season and the Raptors are getting a lottery pick anyways (assumption being OKC gets the pick this season). If next year is a failure that is not going to look good on him and he won't get anywhere near max - let alone $19M for 2014-15.

My hope: Bargnani turns in to Boozer and another asset. Raps make playoffs and maybe even 2nd round. Gay signs reasonable extension (basically anything less than max). 2014-15 Boozer is a big expiring $16M contract and can return talent via trade at the deadline in a day of super luxury tax facing a crappy team with an unhappy, expensive star.

I also believe we agree on a lot, but I would like to point out a few things...

Eric Akshinthala wrote:

I think that the team should be able to(wait) but unfortunately can't.

Why can't they wait until mid season to extend him? Or next off-season? Or the year after that? I never meant to imply that they HAD to wait until he was a free agent to sign him, so I'll apologize if I gave that impression. I just don't think you need to extend him this off season, It's not like he's going anywhere.

Eric Akshinthala wrote:

Chris Bosh is the best example of that only difference being he was worth max money.

I don't think the Bosh comparison plays as the raps were always willing and wanting to extend him, but Bosh was clear that HE wanted to wait for FA. Or maybe I am misunderstanding your comparison?

Eric Akshinthala wrote:

All said, I think Raps. should explore trade options before signing him to an extension.

The funny thing is I'd like to keep him. Just not at 22 million, or even 19 million. Maybe I'm calculating his salary incorrectly, if someone knows how that works, maybe you can enlighten the rest of us.

I guess the main disagreement is that I don't think anyone else is going to offer him max money, if nobody else is, then there's no incentive for us to. Maybe i'm wrong though.

Mediumcore wrote:

It's getting supremely annoying that everyone is bitching about this teams lack of flexibility to sign an elite player other than Rudy Gay, like the opportunity to do so comes along everyday.

I like the Gay trade, and I'm happy to extend him at some point, but I think NOW is the wrong time to do it. Basically he hasn't proved he deserves max money, but I don't think he'll sign for less. Why not let him play a season or so, and when your closer to FA there's less uncertainty about his value in the league. The fact that we got him for Ed Davis speaks to the interest level of other teams IMO.

CalgaryRapsFan wrote:

I'm certainly not knocking the acquisition of Gay, I was one of the strongest supporters of targeting Gay since the summer, along with Matt. I still think it was a great move and hope he does re-sign long-term.

Me too, but offering an extension right now just seems like eloping after a one night stand. Why not move in together first, to see if the chemistry lasts or that it will work long term.

Matt52 wrote:

After thinking for a day or two, I think any attempt to sign Gay is premature this summer.

The topic could surely be broached but it would seem, at least to me, the Raptors would be better off waiting to see how next year plays out.

Not to turn this in to Bargnani time (yet again) but the Raps need to see what they have without him and what he might bring.

Also the Raps need to see if Gay can elevate his game and fit in Toronto (from a basketball sense) leading to a competitive franchise. He certainly has immense talent but as we know talent doesn't fill the win column alone (although it is probably the most important thing with desire coming a close 2nd).

I don't think there is any risk of Gay turning down his $19M option. He will be just turning 29 when his player option is up. He will be able to secure at least one more meaningful/significant contract in his career at that time.

The most the Raptors can extend him for this year is 2 seasons. Basically, unless the Raps are going to pay him Joe Johnson money (which we can't rule out because Colangelo is offering the contract - Jesus, Mary, and Joseph *sigh*), adding 2 years now does little for either party (Gay or Toronto).

Wait until next summer and if things work out as we hope, add another 3 years at that time. Or wait until the player option is up (summer 2015) and add 4 years at that time. But adding 2 years this summer is not in anyone's best interests.

If Gay decides to opt out after next year it means it was a failure of a season and the Raptors are getting a lottery pick anyways (assumption being OKC gets the pick this season). If next year is a failure that is not going to look good on him and he won't get anywhere near max - let alone $19M for 2014-15.

My hope: Bargnani turns in to Boozer and another asset. Raps make playoffs and maybe even 2nd round. Gay signs reasonable extension (basically anything less than max). 2014-15 Boozer is a big expiring $16M contract and can return talent via trade at the deadline in a day of super luxury tax facing a crappy team with an unhappy, expensive star.

I agree with the above.

The funny thing is, that this 4 page thread is all because of one article sighting an "inside source" for all we know it's BS. Not blaming the guy who started the thread (because it was me), but I never thought it would get this much play. The fact that many of us think an extension right now is not a good idea, but simultaneously think that Coangelo would entertain the idea speaks volumes about our confidence in our GM's ability to negotiate contracts, whether or not their is any truth to the rumour.

But yeah, offering rudy 22+ million per season is crazy, Bryan Coangelo crazy.

EDIT: I would also like to say it's not about financial flexibility, it's about only willing to overspend sooo much on a player. Amir Johnson's contract, no problem, Jose's contract, no problem, even barg's contract not a huge deal, your only overspending at most 1-2 mill per year, and in the case of Johnson he's worth it. But paying Rudy 22+mil, that's over paying by like 10 mil. I guess it's arbitary, but if you HAVE to pay a guy 5 million more than he's worth, what the f*^k are you doing wrong?

I don't think Rudy will extend for anything less than max RIGHT NOW but I do think he may sign for less in a year or two, doesn't necessarily have to go all the way to FA, just not a max contract this summer.

"We only have one rule on this team. What is that rule? E.L.E. That's right's, E.L.E, and what does E.L.E. stand for? EVERYBODY LOVE EVERYBODY. Right there up on the wall, because this isn't just a basketball team, this is a lifestyle. ~ Jackie Moon

I agree that there's no reason to rush this, however it would be worth seeing if there's a window right now for a 'buy-low' scenario; Gay excited about being in Toronto, sick of being judged against a ridiculous contract, wanting to be seen as part of a winner rather than a guy you can't build a winner around. If we're talking about a max or near max extension (or even anything that's 100% of his option year), then there's absolutely zero reason to move on it now.

As to the first bolded section, why can't you let him walk away? Because, we can't get another player of his talent level to sign here? I don't buy that argument, but some on this site do, but even if we accept that we can't get a replacement for him, does that mean we have to pay him a max contract? I'm not exactly sure how it works, but I assume that a max contract would be 100+x% of his current salary and probably puts us in the Joe Johnson salary range of 22 mill per season plus... Are you really okay with paying RUDY GAY 22+ million/season, basically paying him more than Lebron, or Durant? Really? I mean really, really?

As to the second bold, I agree, the raps have to over pay. But what is Rudy's value? Honestly, based on his play with Memphis and Toronto, I'd say he's worth 12 mill per season. I think that's absolutely fair. So I'm fine with overpaying 3 mill a season, but any deal over 15mil/season is going to be difficult to stomach, let alone paying Gay 22+ mill a season? That's overpaying by just about double and I am not okay with that. If a guy wants double of what he's worth, you have to let him go. Or let him try is luck elsewhere and then offer him a little bit more than what any other team is offering, and hope that the extra soothes his ego enough to justify signing with you even though you had the guts to NOT offer him what he thinks he's worth.

But I'm curious, what do you think is fair rate, and his market rate? For gay based on his production versus other people who are producing similar rates, I'd say a fair rate 12 mill/season, but his market rate is probably 14 mill. So I can stomach paying him 15, but if he wants more than that, I think you have to let him walk.

Question, when was the last time the Raptors had a wing player like Gay? i would have to say Vince Carter, and the last time he played here was 9 years ago so that answers your question.

Second, not sure what Gay is worth. But all i know is, he's going to breakout next season. He's going to be the #1 option on offence. He'll average 20+ppg for sure. He's also going to get his rebounds and steals and assists. And the Raps for sure will be in the playoffs.

Re-signing Gay this summer i think is a wise idea because what he's worth right now whatever that is would probably double after next season.

Last edited by TRex; Fri Mar 8th, 2013 at 07:04 PM.

"Analytics DON'T work at all. It's some crap that people that are really smart made up to get in the game. Bunch of smart guys who have never played. The NBA is about TALENT" - Charles Barkley #Truth