Health Care REIT Stats Update 01-28-14

Jan. 28, 2014 5:43 PM ET

When I last wrote on Health Care REITs, I was telling you it was a bad time to be buying. It was a suboptimal time to buy - as interest rates were quickly rising. Those who delayed their purchases were well served by my advice. But it was a total accident on my part. I had no idea that interest rates would take off in December and then fall back in January.

Health Care Update for Q1-14

Yields are calculated on Q1-14 dividends. HCN has announced a February increase in the dividend to $0.795/share - OHI an increase to $0.49/share - MPW increased to $0.21/share for the dividend to be paid in January 2014. Yahoo shows a higher div for DOC - but I can not find a confirming press release. The Dividend/FFO ratio uses the 2014 FFO projection. AVIV started trading on 3-21-13 and DOC on 7-19-13. The sector average LTM (last twelve month) dividend change omits AVIV and DOC from that calculation. VTR has atypically had two dividend increases in the LTM.

The analyst projected FFO stats for UTH that I find at Yahoo Finance look bad to me. Those projections are not in line with what UHT is reporting. This date uses a 2013 FFO projection that is a run rate based on current trends. HTA IPOed in June of 2012. 'Normalized FFO' stats for the pre-IPO years came from its 2011 10-K. When AVIV and DOC were added to the sector on 11-19-13, the sector average 2013 price/FFO ratio rose from 14.94 to 15.79 and the 2014 ratio fell from 13.90 to 13.80. 2012 FFO growth was 10.77% and 2013 growth was 7.65%.

FFO / Share

% FFO Growth

Price/FFO

14 FFO Range

Co.

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

11-12

12-13

13-14

2012

2013

2014

High

Low

Range

AVIV

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

1.18

1.79

NaN

Infinity

51.69

na

20.81

13.72

190

176

7.82%

DOC

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.26

0.95

NaN

Infinity

265.38

na

48.23

13.20

84

21

66.32%

HCN

3.12

3.13

3.41

3.51

3.77

3.99

2.93

7.41

5.84

16.18

15.06

14.23

413

390

5.76%

HCP

2.14

2.19

2.69

2.76

2.99

3.04

2.60

8.33

1.67

14.17

13.08

12.87

317

297

6.58%

HR

1.65

1.29

1.15

1.31

1.29

1.41

13.91

-1.53

9.30

17.40

17.67

16.17

147

135

8.51%

HTA

0.00

0.38

0.51

0.61

0.64

0.71

19.61

4.92

10.94

17.61

16.78

15.13

73

64

12.68%

LTC

1.89

1.88

2.15

2.26

2.35

2.64

5.12

3.98

12.34

16.54

15.90

14.16

270

258

4.55%

MPW

0.79

0.66

0.71

0.90

0.99

1.12

26.76

10.00

13.13

14.39

13.08

11.56

114

110

3.57%

NHI

2.33

2.76

2.88

3.18

3.53

4.13

10.42

11.01

17.00

19.69

17.74

15.16

390

366

5.81%

OHI

1.47

1.61

1.89

2.19

2.50

2.73

15.87

14.16

9.20

14.77

12.94

11.85

276

259

6.23%

SBRA

0.00

0.00

1.31

1.41

1.87

2.25

7.63

32.62

20.32

20.43

15.41

12.80

237

178

26.22%

SNH

1.69

1.70

1.73

1.75

1.70

1.74

1.16

-2.86

2.35

12.83

13.21

12.90

183

167

9.20%

UHT

2.80

2.61

2.57

2.84

2.73

2.80

10.51

-3.87

2.56

14.75

15.35

14.96

280

280

0.00%

VTR

2.66

2.85

3.37

3.80

4.13

4.36

12.76

8.68

5.57

16.27

14.97

14.18

445

421

5.50%

Average

NaN

-43.57

12.46

16.25

17.87

13.78

Click to enlarge

Historical Price/FFO ratios for the sector:

Mar 2007: 15.23

June: 13.19

Sept: 14.18

Dec: 14.55

Mar 2008: 14.17

June: 13.27

Sept: 15.95

Dec: 12.38

Mar 2009: 9.42

June: 10.84

Sept: 12.61

Dec: 13.90

Mar 2010: 12.61

June: 14.10

Sept: 15.45

Dec: 15.41

Mar 2011: 15.07

June: 14.62

Sept: 12.91

Dec: 14.95

Mar 2012: 14.21

June: 15.25

Sept: 15.05

Dec: 15.82

Mar 2013: 17.18

June: 15.84

Sept: 15.21

Dec: 16.67

Click to enlarge

note - The consensus analyst ratings have not been updated since November of 2013