Bold Euro 2012 Prediction: Spain will crash out in the GROUP STAGE

Updated on June 4, 2012

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Spain knocked out in the group stage of Euro 2012?

I am making the bold prediction that Spain will get knocked out of Euro 2012 in the GROUP STAGE. That's right, I am not joining the chorus of people who believe that Spain will win Euro 2012. I believe they will crash out before even seeing the knock out phase.

Is there any logic behind this? I mean, how could there be: Spain won the last European cup and then won the World Cup 2 years later! And some say they are better then even then before!

My theory is based on the group that Spain finds itself in (Group C) and the particular circumstances surrounding the teams in each group.

Group C - Not far from being a group of death!

Group C has not received too much attention in the build up to Euro 2012. It's already taken as a given by the media that Spain will progress on top of the group. All the attention has been on the true group of death which involves Holland, Germany, Portugal and Denmark.

Yet I see Group C differently- I believe it is very close to a group of death.

The group consists of Spain, Italy, Coatia and Republic of Ireland.

Straight off the bat, people assume Spain and Italy will progress and both are favorites to do so which is justifiable.

Repbublic of Ireland are not a strong team at the moment- they recent received a mammoth-sized backslapping by the Netherlands, being crushed 6-0 by the Dutch.

I do not believe that they will will a game at Euro 2012.

It is the other 3 teams that will battle for the 2 progression spots, and here is why I think Italy and Croatia will progress at the expense of Spain.

How Italy and Croatia will surpass Spain

Italy are not as feared as they used to be- and with good reason, they are not as strong as they used to be.

Yet Italy are still a resoundingly strong force in defense. It is very hard to crack the nut that is the Italian defense, and it takes a good attack to do so.

What makes Italy more dangeous now though is that their attack has grown in strengh, Mario Balotelli will likely play for them and will pose a threat to the Spanish defense.

Italy and Spain play the opening game of the group.

Both teams are known for having slow starts to the tornament.

What I believe will happen is that this game will end in a draw. 0-0 or 1-1. I believe Italy can win this but I believe it will be a draw.

Later that day, Croatia will defeat Republic of Ireland and go top of the table.

Croatia, 3

Spain, 1

Italy, 1

Republic of Ireland, 0

Next round sees Italy play against Croatia and Spain play against Republic of Ireland.

Italy will defeat Croatia and take the top spot on the table, while Spain will beat Republic of Ireland.

So after round 2, the table will look as follows:

Italy, 4

Spain, 4

Croatia, 3

Republic of Ireland, 0

In the final round, Spain will play Croatia and this is where it will all fall apart for Spain.

They are absolutely not going to be expecting to lose against Croatia.

Yet they will. Croatia are a decent side and will sense the chance for a memorable win. The Spanish team will have too much pressure (Some Spanish fans will go into this game no even doubting that they will win and progress to the knockout phase) and find themselves creating chances but ultimately impotent up front. Croatia wins 1-0 or 2-1.

Meanwhile Italy beats the Republic of Ireland (who have no chance of progression at this point anyway) 2-0 and the suddenly Spain are knocked out.

Final Table

Italy, 7

Croatia, 6

Spain, 4

Republic of Ireland, 0

How concrete is this?

Of course things are unlikly to go exactly as I have predicted here- but I do believe that Croatia and Italy will progress while Spain and the Republic of Ireland will not.

The group can be shaken up if Republic of Ireland get wins. If they win games, whoever slips up against them will likely pay with their spot in the next round (Just like in the group of death- whoever slips up against Denmark is in trouble).

Spain crash out in the group stages!

Come back and let me know I was right, or say "I told ya so! It was never gonna happen!" once the group stages are over!

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Comments 4 comments

Ehm, Ireland didnt lose to the Dutch. That was NORTHERN IRELAND, who the Republic also beat 5-0 last summer. So i think you may be a little out with your prediction

Voronwe 4 years ago

Bold prediction, indeed!

But only until Italy drew with Croatia...well, it's the last day for Group C fixtures and quite eager to see Spain play against Croatia!

They both defeated Ireland and drew with Italy! Tough game. Croatia has a fine team and individual talent but the defending champions are known for their monopoly of the ball and team fluidity (despite the absence of Puyol and David Villa)

Last night's Group B finale was spectacular! Denmark made quite an example. Portugal delivered well- astounding really and I still can't get over Netherland's shocking defeat!

CCahill 4 years ago from England

At least you dared to speculate ;)

There was a moment in the final game of the group stages where Spain might have gone out

aususaeast 4 years ago from Aus Author

Yeah Croatia had a couple of good chances.. ah well! All my predictions were wrong for this tournament lol.