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Abstract

Forecasting electricity consumption is of national interest to any country. Future electricity forecasts are not only
required for short and long term power planning activities but also in the structure of the national economy. This
paper proposes six forecasting models developed for electricity consumption in New Zealand. Three of these models
(Logistic, Harvey Logistic and Harvey) are based on growth curves. A further model uses economic and
demographic variables in multiple linear regression to forecast electricity consumption while another uses these
factors to estimate future saturation values of the New Zealand electricity consumptions and combine the results
with a growth curve model. The sixth model makes use of the Box-Jenkins ARIMA modeling technique. The
developed models are compared using goodness of fit, forecasting accuracy and future consumption values. The
future consumptions are also compared with the available national forecasts. The comparisons revealed that the best
overall forecasts are given by the Harvey model for both the Domestic and the Total electricity consumption of New
Zealand while a specific form of the Harvey model, the Harvey Logistic model, is the best in forecasting Non-
Domestic electricity consumption.

Citation

Mohamed, Z., Bodger, P.S. (2004) Forecasting electricity consumption: A comparison of models for New Zealand. Christchurch, New Zealand: Electricity Engineers' Association of New Zealand Annual Conference, 18-19 Jun 2004. CD-ROM.This citation is automatically generated and may be unreliable. Use as a guide only.