Tuesday 8th July: Daily technical outlook and review.

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For the readers’ benefit:

Price action confirmation: simply means traders will likely wait for price action to confirm a level by consuming an opposing supply or demand area, then entering a trade on a possible retracement, this may occur on the lower timeframes also.

Pending orders: means pending orders are likely seen.

EUR/USD:

4hr TF.

The market opened on Monday a little higher than Friday’s close (1.35921) at 1.35946. It was reported in the last analysis that if the round number 1.36000 proves itself, we may well see a touch at the low 1.35746. This did indeed happen with the sellers seen pushing price down to the aforementioned low, only to see a to-the-pip bullish reaction.

Price is now contained between the round number 1.36000 and the low mentioned above. Our analysis remains similar to that of the last: a positive break below of the low could see prices dropping all the way to 4hr demand at 1.35018-1.35375 sometime early this week. The reason being is that most of the demand/buyers have already been consumed. Take a look at the arc pattern on the chart; can you see the tails that spike down as price continued to rally? This is more than likely pro money at work clearing the buyers out for a move south later on.

If however we get a break above the round number 1.36000, price would very likely test the decision point level above at 1.36076 which will possibly send price south once again. On the other hand, the round number and decision point level could make a nice fake out area for pro money. One can only imagine how many sellers’ stops and break out buy orders are lurking around this area, pro money know this (liquidity = buy orders for pros to sell into), and at the same time, they very likely see the same decision point above it, so we may see a fakeout above the round number into the decision point level sometime today.

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

No pending buy orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.

P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen just above demand (1.35018-1.35375) at 1.35417. The reason behind us placing a P.A confirmation buy order here, rather than a pending buy order is because the aforementioned demand area appears weak as deep spikes have been seen recently (marked with two arrows).

No pending sell orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.

P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen just below supply (1.37224-1.37028) at 1.36894. A P.A.C order was selected here due to the reaction seen at the aforementioned supply area proving its validity. However, pro money may well decide to push price higher into this supply area if/when price returns to it, thus making it a risky trade for a stop above the high 1.36995 which could be very easily be stopped out if a pending sell order was set, hence the need to wait for confirmation.

New P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen just below the decision point level (1.36076) at 1.36053. The reason a P.A confirmation sell order was used here is simply because these psychological levels are, as most traders already know, prone to deep tests/spikes, hence the need to wait for confirmation.

Quick Recap:

On the 4hr timeframe, price is seen trading in between the round number 1.36000 and the all-important low at 1.35746. A break above the round number could very well see price testing the decision point level above at 1.36076 where we now have a P.A confirmation sell order set at 1.36053. Conversely, a break below the low at 1.35746 could force price to test the 4hr demand area below at 1.35018-1.35375. Sometime soon, price will likely fakeout above the round number hitting our decision point level (levels above) before dropping back towards the low mentioned above, and filling our P.A confirmation sell order (levels above) in the process.

Areas to watch for buy orders:P.O: No pending buy orders are seen in the current market environment. P.A.C: 1.35417 (SL: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).

Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: No pending sell orders are seen in the current market environment. P.A.C: 1.36894 (SL: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed) 1.36053 (SL: 1.36121 TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).

GBP/USD:

Weekly TF:

A quick reminder of the weekly timeframe shows price is (at the time of writing) trading deep within weekly supply at 1.76297-1.67702.

Daily TF.

The daily timeframe is currently seen trading between a beautiful daily supply area at 1.76297-1.73024 which is located deep within the weekly supply area mentioned above, and a nice-looking S/R flip level at 1.69712.

4hr TF.

The market opened just a tad higher than Friday’s close (1.71574) at 1.71661. The sellers then proceeded to take control with very little interest currently being seen by the buyers at the moment.

Technically, price has not changed much since the last analysis, and this is to be expected as Monday’s are notoriously slow! So, much of the last analysis (copied below) still holds true:

Price is currently seen trading between round numbers 1.71000 and 1.72000. A beautiful reaction was seen off of the round number 1.71000, what followed after this was important. Notice the high marked with a flag at 1.71762? Early Friday, price consumed this high with a small wick/spike above it, more than likely stopping out some of the sellers in the process.

With the high now clear of some potential supply, logically there is room for price to move above this, to test the round number 1.72000, with the possibility of breaking this level also. A retracement to the round number 1.71000 is not out of the question though, as pro money will require orders to move the market higher, so do be on the lookout for this early sometime time this week.

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

A pending buy order (Green line) is set just above the round number 1.71000 at 1.71039. A pending buy order is valid here due to the buyers proving this level by consuming sellers around the high (marked with a flag) at 1.71762, thus potentially clearing the path for higher prices, and if a retracement occurs, we will be ready and waiting to enter the market!

P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen just above demand (1.70617-1.70459) at 1.70662. A reaction north is likely to be seen here as there is no doubt unfilled buy orders left around this area when pro money made the ‘decision’ to push higher. However deep spikes can occur around flip areas (levels above) such as these, hence the need to wait for confirmation.

No pending sell orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.

No P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

Quick Recap:

Price is still seen deep within weekly supply at 1.76297-1.67702, while on the daily timeframe buyers and sellers are still seen trading between daily supply at 1.76297-1.73024 and the daily S/R flip level below at 1.69712. There was not much action seen on the 4hr timeframe, we still have our pending buy orders set around the round number 1.71000 at 1.71039 in the anticipation of a decline, test and subsequent rally higher to at least the round number 1.72000, and possibly beyond.

Areas to watch for buy orders:P.O: 1.71039 (SL: 1.70870 TP: Dependent on price approach). P.A.C: 1.70662 (likely to be set at 1.70423 TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).

Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: No pending sell orders seen in the current market environment. P.A.C: No P.A confirmation sell orders seen in the current market environment.

AUD/USD:

Daily TF.

A quick reminder of the daily timeframe shows price stalled around the low 0.93208 where buyers have begun showing a little interest, a break below this low could force price to test the daily demand area below at 0.92046-0.92354.

4hr TF.

The market opened around Friday’s close at 0.93622, subsequently seeing the sellers take control, pushing price hard into 4hr demand below at 0.93208-0.93417 where a bullish reaction followed.

This is very similar to the last analysis where as if we see a break below the aforementioned 4hr demand area at, we are effectively seeing a break of an important daily low (0.93208). Taking this into consideration, a break below the 4hr demand area above could easily see price testing at least the round number 0.93000 below, with the possibility of price spiking down to the 4hr decision point area at 0.92566-0.92736.

A rally to the round number 0.94000 above should not be discounted as this may very well happen before a break of the 4hr demand area (levels above) is seen, which was also mentioned in the last analysis.

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

No pending buy orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.

P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen just above the decision point level (0.92566-0.92736) at 0.92775. The reason for placing a P.A confirmation buy order here rather than pending buy order is simply because we are just above a daily demand ‘buy zone’ at 0.92046-0.92354, meaning pro money could very well just ignore this level completely and trade deeper into the aforementioned daily demand area, so, confirmation is the order of the day!

Pending sell orders (Green line) are seen just below supply (0.95425-0.95096) at 0.95052. A pending sell order is placed here due to this being an area where pro money was interested in before; see how close price came to the supply area? (Levels above), this indicates possible strong supply (selling pressure), so the next time price visits we can expect some sort of reaction.

P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen just below the round number 094000 at 0.93959. A P.A confirmation sell order was allocated here since this area will likely be the place pro money will rally price to, to collect liquidity, before dropping lower. Placing a pending sell order here could be dangerous as there is no logical area to place your stop loss, and as most traders know, these psychological levels are prone to deep spikes on occasion.

Quick Recap:

Buyers and sellers are seen trading around an important daily low seen at 0.93208. If a break lower is seen we may likely see price testing the extreme daily demand at 0.92046-0.92354. The open saw the sellers take full control hammering price down to 4hr demand at 0.93208-0.93417, this selling pressure did not last long though as the buyers quickly took back the reigns! Considering we are at 4hr and daily demand (levels above), the buying interest is not exactly convincing! So, a break below will likely occur sometime today or tomorrow, do be aware though, price may spike up to the round number 0.94000 triggering our P.A confirmation sell order set at 0.93959, before a break lower is seen.

Areas to watch for buy orders:P.O: No pending buy orders seen in the current market environment. P.A.C: 0.92775 (SL: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).

Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: 0.95052 (SL: 0.95467 TP: Depending on price approach). P.A.C: 0.93959 (SL: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).

USD/JPY:

4hr TF.

The market opened at 102.050 with the buyers being seen taking full control; however, this momentum did not last long as the sellers shortly took charge with force! This could very well be pro money thinking ahead of price here! This small rally north no doubt consumed the majority of the remaining sellers around the 102.191 area (marked with arrows), thus clearing out any potential obstacle (supply) so, when/if price does indeed react at either of the decision point levels below (101.754/101.400-101.465) we should see a nice rally higher.

The sellers seem to be stalling at the moment, but it is very likely this selling will continue until at least the first decision point level (levels above) where unfilled buy orders are more than likely still lurking.

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

Pending buy orders (Green line) are seen just above the decision-point level (101.400-101.465) at 101.483. The reason a pending buy order is valid here is for the simple fact this is where pro money were active, they made a decision to push prices higher, indicating there may very well be unfilled buy orders lurking here.

Pending buy orders (Green line) are seen just above the decision-point level (101.754) at 101.771. Very similar reason to above, pro money made the decision here to push price up (above the high 102.157) into a zone of interest (the green arc pattern resembles supply consumption as price was dropping, notice the wicks) indicating there may very well be unfilled buy orders lurking here.

No P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

Pending sell orders (Green line) are seen just below supply (103.294-102.983) at 102.953. A pending sell order was set here due to this being an area where likely unfilled sell orders are.

No P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

Quick Recap:

A small rally up to 4hr supply was seen around the 102.191 area, the buyers stood no chance here as the sellers hammered price down making new lows. Price is currently in a good position to see our pending buy order at 101.771 filled very soon around the decision point level (101.754) as there is very little in the way of demand stopping price.

Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: 102.953 (SL: 103.317 TP: Dependent on price approach) P.A.C: No P.A confirmation sell orders are seen in the current market environment.

EUR/GBP:

4hr TF.

The market opened around Friday’s close at 0.79188, the sellers showed very little interest from the word go, as the buyers have been seen in full control (at the time of writing).

Even though the buyers seem to be in control at the moment, we believe price will eventually drop to the 4hr demand area just mentioned, faking past the minor support level at 0.79139 into true 4hr demand below at 0.78862-0.79185.

However do not discount the possibility of a retracement north first up to the S/R flip level (level above) before the 4hr demand area (levels above) sees a touch.

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

Pending buy orders (Green line) are seen just above demand (0.78862-0.79185) at 0.79076. A pending buy order is placed here due to the aforementioned 4hr demand area’s location in the higher timeframes (Within the compressed green arc from weekly demand: 0.76931-0.78623… Seen on Monday 7th July analysis).

No P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

Pending sell orders (Green line) are seen just below the S/R flip level (0.79679) at 0.79641. Our rationale behind placing a pending sell order here is simply because this was a decision point area made at the aforementioned S/R flip level during NFP Thursday, meaning pro money were certainly active, and unfilled sell orders are more than likely still lurking there.

No P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

Quick Recap:

Buyers have been seen in control from the word go on the 4hr timeframe, with the sellers showing little to no interest at the moment. A minor support level has been created at 0.79139 which is a beautiful area to be faked past into true 4hr demand (0.78862-0.79185) below filling our pending buy order set at 0.79076 in the process.

Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: 0.79076 (SL: 0.78846 TP: Dependent on price approach) P.A.C: No P.A confirmation buy orders are seen in the current market environment.

Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: 0.79641 (SL: 0.79747 TP: Dependent on price approach). P.A.C: No P.A confirmation sell orders are seen in the current market environment.

USD/CAD:

4hr TF

The higher timeframe picture is very interesting with both the weekly timeframe and daily timeframe seeing great-looking demand areas (1.05715-1.07008….1.05874-1.06680).

It was reported in the last analysis that price would likely see a bearish reaction off of temporary supply around the 1.06515 area. A bearish reaction was seen, however price actually pushed a little higher forming a nice-looking bearish pin bar before dropping towards 4hr demand at 1.06041-1.06312. This push higher into the aforementioned 4hr supply likely consumed the majority of the sellers lurking around there, thus clearing the path north for the expected rally higher.

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

Pending buy orders (Green line) are seen within demand (1.06041-1.06312) at 1.06229. Price will likely see a retracement into this demand area, and a bullish reaction will likely follow, as we are currently in higher timeframe demand (Weekly demand: 1.05715-1.07008 Daily demand: 1.05874-1.06680).

No P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

Pending sell orders (Green line) are seen just below a small supply area (1.07508-1.07434) at 1.07386. A pending sell order has been set here since a bounce from this area will likely be seen if/when price reaches here, as the momentum from this area was quite strong, indicating unfilled sell orders may still be set there.

No P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

Quick Recap:

With price being seen trading in serious higher-timeframe demand areas (Weekly demand: 1.05715-1.07008 Daily demand: 1.05874-1.06680), higher prices are naturally expected! Price is nail-bitingly close to filling our pending buy order set within 4hr demand (1.06041-1.06312) at 1.06229. We will likely see a small spike into the aforementioned 4hr demand area before any higher prices is seen, thus filling our pending buy order in the process.

Areas to watch for buy orders:P.O: 1.06229 SL: 1.05951 TP: Dependent on price approach. P.A.C: There are no P.A confirmation buy orders seen within the current market environment.

Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O:1.07386 (SL: 1.07541 TP: Dependent on price approach). P.A.C: There are no P.A confirmation sell orders seen within the current market environment.

USD/CHF:

4hr TF.

Price appears to have broken (albeit a small break) the important high at 0.89557, does this mean we should buy buy buy now? Most definitely not! It would have been much better to see a positive close above this area rather than a small wick/spike.

If we see strong support coming in around the low (marked with an arrow) at 0.89245) we may very well have a potential buy trade, but until then it is best to wait for the time being.

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

No pending buy orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.

P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen just above the low 0.88546 at 0.88586. The reason that a P.A confirmation buy order was set here rather than a pending buy order was simply because there is no logical area for a stop loss, and the low (level above) will be likely prone to deep tests, or worse, a positive break below, hence the need to wait for confirmation.

No pending sell orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.

The P.A confirmation sell order (Red line) set just below the high 0.89557 at 0.89514 is now active. To confirm this level the sellers must consume some of the buyers around the low marked with an arrow at 0.89245, this will allow a pending sell order to be set awaiting a possible retracement.

Quick Recap:

Our P.A confirmation sell order has been triggered at 0.89514 sitting just below the high 0.89557. A break above the aforementioned high has been seen, meaning higher prices may well happen. However at the time of writing price is showing no positive bullish price action to even consider any long trades, so for the time being we wait and let price action unfold to tell us what to do next.

Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: There are currently no pending buy orders seen within the current market environment. P.A.C: 0.88586 (SL: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).

Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: There are currently no pending sell orders seen within the current market environment. P.A.C (Active-awaiting confirmation) 0.89514 (SL: likely to be set at 0.89624 TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).

XAU/USD (GOLD)

Daily TF.

A reminder of what the daily timeframe looks like shows how ugly the daily supply area at 1318.12-1331.08 is! How anyone could possibly trade this mess as it is now, let’s see what new developments are on the 4hr timeframe.

4hr TF.

The market opened at 1320.53, sellers took control right away pushing price ever so closer to the weak-looking 4hr demand area at 1304.77-1308.55.

Technically, price has not changed much so the last analysis still remains strong:

If price positively closes below 4hr demand at 1304.77-1308.55 we can be quite confident it was indeed a fakeout without the need for price to rally higher in the 4hr supply area (levels above). If, however price consumes the 4hr supply area above (1342.30-1335.74), we can be pretty sure it is a continuation move. Only time will tell, but we definitely favor a fakeout

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

No pending buy orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.

P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen just above the S/D flip area (1284.77-1280.53) at 1285.71. We have set a P.A confirmation buy order here simply because we could not find a logical area for the stop-loss order, so to avoid any deep spikes; we have decided to wait for confirmation.

P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen just above demand (1304.77-1308.55) at 1309.75. We did not think a pending buy order was wise here due to the amount of spikes/tails seen already to this area, hence the need to wait for confirmation.

Pending sell orders (Green line) are seen just below supply (1342.30-1335.74) at 1334.17. A pending sell order is set here because this is the likely area pro money will push prices to if indeed a fakeout of daily supply (1318.12-1331.08) is happening, thus a pending sell order is valid.

No P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

Quick Recap:

The daily timeframe shows price is still trading around daily supply at 1318.12-1331.08. It is very difficult to see if the wick/spike above the aforementioned daily supply area was a genuine continuation move or a fakeout. The 4hr timeframe shows price is currently trading in between 4hr demand at 1304.77-1308.55 and 4hr supply at 1342.30-1335.74 with a break yet to be seen either side, however do watch these areas just mentioned as a break of either could very well answer our questions as to whether a fakeout of daily supply (1318.12-1331) is occurring.

Areas to watch for buy orders:P.O: There are currently no pending buy orders seen in the current market environment. P.A.C: 1285.71 (SL: (SL: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed) 1309.75 (SL likely to be set at 1303.11 TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).

Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: 1334.17 SL: 1343.78 TP: Dependent on approaching price action) P.A.C: There are currently no P.A confirmation sell orders seen in the current market environment.

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