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Get ready for an election this autumn. Depending on the outcome we could finally unblock political gridlock, or remain stuck in a traffic time warp.

With Premier Kathleen Wynne at the wheel, the Liberals are trying to navigate through political roadblocks that have stunted transit expansion for a generation. If she fails, her minority government could crash on the altar of road tolls and other transportation taxes.

Wynne kicked off her reform drive in the Liberal leadership race she won last January. Now, going forward, she is poised to lead the great gridlock debate by showing how the world has left us behind on transportation solutions.

Next week, Wynne has scheduled a major speech outlining her vision to Toronto’s board of trade — a right-leaning business audience that has become the biggest ally of this left-leaning politician.

Last month, the board issued its own roadmap showing how to bankroll $50 billion in long overdue investments by tapping into special transportation revenues: parking fees, gas taxes, a regional sales tax and optional tolls for “premium” express lanes.

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Next up, in mid-April: CivicAction, an umbrella group of progressive NGOs will weigh in with its own call for an adult discussion on gridlock and transit, without which ordinary Torontonians will be stranded.

The timeline for talking up traffic — first big business, then the premier, followed by progressive voices — will raise the stakes for the spring budget in late April: Wynne’s government will lay down basic principles but stop short of any specific tax proposals that could prompt the opposition parties to defeat her minority government. That comes later.

In 2011, road tolls were on ice. Fighting his last election as Liberal leader, Dalton McGuinty wouldn’t come within a country mile — or city kilometre — of transportation taxation. Anyone else who raised road tolls risked being tarred, if not feathered and muzzled.

Just ask local NDP candidate Paul Ferreira, who made the mistake of musing during a 2011 campaign debate that voters needed “mature conversations” on the questions of road tolls and parking taxes. Ferreira, who had been NDP leader Andrea Horwath’s chief of staff, was promptly thrown under a bus by his former boss: “Definitely no tolls!” Horwath proclaimed the next day. “If he’s trying to do that then it will stop at my desk.”

Horwath isn’t alone in playing the politics of gridlock.

The Liberal campaign machine quickly joined the attack on Ferreira: “Ontario families don’t want to pay a new NDP tax just to park their car,” the party taunted reflexively.

During the recent Liberal leadership race, Wynne embraced the very position her party once ridiculed. But not everyone was ready for the grown-up conversation she sought. One of her fledgling leadership rivals, Glen Murray, denounced road pricing outright.

“Tolls are not the answer,” the last-place candidate asserted, taking direct aim at Wynne: “Lots of people are calling for an ‘adult conversation’ about road pricing . . . and even regional sales taxes to help pay for all of this. We need a reality check. The middle class is taxed out.”

(Taking a convenient U-turn, Murray now serves as Wynne’s transportation minister responsible for generating road revenues. Has he experienced a miraculous conversion on the road to tolls and other “road pricing” tools?)

The opposition is accelerating its attacks. Horwath insists commuters needn’t contribute, and Tory Leader Tim Hudak won’t consider new revenues until all government waste is eliminated. It’s the joint Hudak-Horwath anti-tax inaction plan.

Against that backdrop of political risks, how will Metrolinx and the Wynne government square the transportation circle without the opposition running circles around them?

The trendline of public opinion polling suggests the ground is shifting. Commuters are tired of losing time and money to perpetual traffic jams, while business is grumbling about the growing opportunity cost. People on all sides of the political spectrum are coming to the same realization: Doing nothing is a dead end and spending nothing is a false economy.

Wynne is trying to settle on the right mix in order to make road pricing more palatable. One politically attractive option under consideration: differential fees and tolls for commercial vehicles. Under this scheme, trucks or cars operated by the business sector would pay significantly higher fees than vehicles driven for personal use. After all, if business wants to remove bottlenecks to boost the local economy, shouldn’t it also contribute?

By all accounts, any new plan would also impose tolls for newly constructed roadways, while optional “premium” express lanes could raise modest revenues on existing highways. The mix would also include parking, gas and regional sales taxes.

“She is determined to spend political capital on this because otherwise it won’t get done,” says one Wynne strategist.

It’s an ambitious plan that could make or break Wynne’s political career. It is also a hard sell outside of the GTA and Hamilton, which is why the premier has recently mused about expanding the investment motif to bridges and roads across the province: Rather than lavishing attention solely on GTHA gridlock, she is pointedly emphasizing province-wide infrastructure renewal. It’s a tactical talking point that blunts anti-Toronto resentment by blurring her message into a blended pitch to all Ontarians.

The premier will spend the next few weeks and months explaining that the GTHA isn’t the only place on the planet facing traffic congestion — it’s just that our politicians haven’t faced up to the challenge for a generation. Meanwhile, major metropolises from London to Los Angeles have unblocked gridlock by buying into the idea of road pricing.

From now until a likely fall election, get ready for Toronto’s transportation conversation (and spinoff benefits for Ontario’s economy). The dialogue will determine Wynne’s political future — and our own regional roadmap.

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