Thursday, October 9, 2008

It's Times Like This That Transform Industries

This is not a pretty picture. In the last three months, Healthways’ stock price has gone from just over $25 a share to about $9. The Disease Management Care Blog checked the various finance ‘HWAY’ message boards and blogs and couldn’t find any special insight into what’s going on. Everyone’s stock prices are down and maybe HWAY is just suffering along with the rest.

So what is going on? Of course, Healthways' customers - the health insurers - are stressed and their stock prices have tumbled also. Not only have the investments holding up their reserves and surpluses taken a hit, business-purchasers will be in no mood to put up with future premium increases – which will further stress the bottom line. Health insurers and self insured employers may be forced to offer low-premium/bare bones benefit products stripped of wellness or prevention. On the chronic condition side, expect the Medical Directors, Chief Actuaries and CFOs to have some tough discussions on whether their contracts with disease management companies actually improve the medical loss ratio. Finally, the DMCB has also raised questions about the business model and the need to adapt to changing expectations.

But the Disease Management Care Blog is still bullish on the industry and especially the concept. Disease management remains a policy favorite at many levels in Federal and State government and employers are unlikely to simply walk away from their health care activism. What’s more, there aren’t many other patient-friendly ideas out there that increase quality and temper costs. Expect 'disease management' to remain one of the go-to solutions in the short and long term.

With a P/E ratio of 8, the DMCB doesn’t think Healthways is going to vaporize. Instead, it is looking for something else is going to happen. There is a Healthways Earnings Conference Call on Thursday Oct 16 at 5 PM EST and the DMCB will try to be there (or at least read the transcript) and be on the alert for hints.

It’s times like this that force industries to transform. It not only makes grist for the blogging mill, it’s ultimately good for healthcare consumers.

Here's the User Interface

The PHB & Twitter

LinkedIn

Some more....

Proud to be....

PHB Peer Reviewed Publications:

PHB on Twitter!

Why Should I Read the PHB?

Here's what one reader had to say about the Population Health Blog's ability to to go beyond simple headlines and mainstream newsfeeds:

"This past week, I was surprised to read some of the generic headlines summarizing the VA readmission study. You know, through medical newsfeeds, they almost implied that length of stay didn't have anything to do w/readmissions. When I read the Annals article today, there was certainly a lot more to the study than that. Was happy to see your nice summary, which I agree w/100%. Just wanted to drop you a line to say that Ilooked at your blog w/hopes of finding some commentary on the study---and there it was!"

Not Exactly A Waste Of Time.....

Subscribe To The PHB

This is still true, by the way.....

“Moving into the next century, the most important breakthroughs will be in the from of clinical process innovation rather than clinical product improvement…the next big advances in health care will be the development of protocols for delivering patient care across health care settings over time.”

JD Kleinke, Bleeding Edge

++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Vox audita perit, litteras scripta manet

++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Do Aetna, Humana or UnitedHealth Insurance Cover It? Find Out Here

About Jaan Sidorov MD, MHSA, FACP

While his web persona has been described as a "blogvocateur," Dr. Sidorov has wide range of knowledge about the medical home, condition management, population-based health care and managed care that is only exceeded by his modesty. He has been quoted by the Wall Street Journal, Consumer Reports and NPR’s All Things Considered.
He has over 20 years experience in primary care, disease management and population based care coordination. He is a primary care general internist and former Medical Director at Geisinger Health Plan.
He is primary care by training, managed care by experience and population-based care strategies by disposition.
The contents of this blog reflect only the opinions of Sidorov and should not be interpreted to have anything to do with any current or past employers, clients, customers, friends, acquaintances or enemies, personal, professional, foreign or domestic. This is also not intended to function as medical advice. If you really need that, work with a personal physician or call 911 for crying out loud.
Jaan can be reached at jaansATaolDOTcom.