The Astros' Next Test? Beating Boston's Ace Left-Handers

Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman were the linchpins of the success the Astros enjoyed last postseason against Boston ace left-hander Chris Sale. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images)

Perhaps it’s the Stanford education that renders Astros manager A.J. Hinch a good quote. His is a welcome verbosity, replies that yield a depth of thought to even the most mundane queries.

But on the subject of Red Sox left-hander Chris Sale, whom the Astros will face on Saturday at Fenway Park in Game 1 of the American League Championship Series, Hinch cuts to the chase. There was an analytical bent as he extended into his response, but initially, there were plaudits.

“He’s incredible,” Hinch said of Sale. “He has weapons beyond human nature. His size, the angle, the pitches – when he’s healthy and it’s in the mid- to upper-90s (with the four-seam fastball) you just don’t see that. The spin on his breaking ball is ridiculous. He’s got some tenacity to him. He has fearlessness. Hitters just don’t react very fast to him and rightfully so.

“He’s elite and it doesn’t matter if you bat left-handed or right-handed. It’s uncomfortable.”

That final point is the most salient. How do the Astros manage the challenge of facing a pair of talented left-handers in Sale and David Price, the scheduled starter for Game 2, consecutively?

Hinch is sure to load his lineup with seven right-handed batters this weekend, with switch-hitting left fielder Marwin Gonzalez and left-handed-hitting right fielder Josh Reddick filling out the order. The Astros led the majors with an .803 OPS against left-handed pitching this season, but with Sale limiting right-handed batters to a .245 wOBA and essentially turning them into Chris Davis (whose .168 batting average was the lowest for any quailed hitter in the majors), how a handful of hitters produce could spell the difference between a series lead or deficit.

Gonzalez and Reddick recorded surprising reverse splits this season, with Gonzalez bucking a career trend by posting a higher OPS against left-handers (.753) than right-handers (.722). Reddick produced an even greater and unexpected disparity, with his OPS against left-handers (.827) exceeding that of right-handers (.669) even while frequently sitting against southpaws.

Houston will need to capitalize on the severe splits of first baseman Yuli Gurriel (.889 OPS against left-handers, .693 OPS against righties) and designated hitter Tyler White (1.010 OPS against lefties, .857 OPS against right-handers) to set out on a positive path against Sale, whose strikeout rate against right-handers (38.4%) matched that against lefties (38.3%), underscoring the aforementioned point made by Hinch and the contention of third baseman Alex Bregman.

“What makes pitchers elite is when they can throw four different pitches to four different quadrants – left-handed or right-handed,” Bregman said. “Lefties have to pitch in. If they don’t pitch in I think they get beat by right-handed hitting. But there are guys like Sale who can pitch wherever he wants and be dominant.”

Sale features that four-pitch mix (four-seamer, sinker, slider, changeup), but the Astros did enjoy success against him during the 2017 AL Division Series, saddling Sale with a pair of losses plus an 8.38 ERA by recording 12 hits – including four home runs – across 9 2/3 innings. Sale still managed 12 strikeouts against only one walk, but the Astros’ aggression served them well.

Bregman and second baseman Jose Altuve accounted for the four homers against Sale, and their preparedness for what he brings to the matchup is foremost on their collective minds.

“One game at a time and be ready when the time comes,” said Altuve, who owns a .345/.367/.690 slash line against Sale over 30 plate appearances. “It’s good to know you’re facing him a couple days before because now you go to the computer to see your at-bats recently against him and maybe see how he’s pitching lately.”

Price will face Houston bogged down by a more complicated history. He logged 6 2/3 scoreless innings over two relief appearances against the Astros in that ALDS and is 6-2 with a 2.94 ERA over 12 appearances (10 starts) against Houston with 85 strikeouts over 70 1/3 innings.

But Price has suffered a tortured postseason existence as a starter, going 0-9 with a 6.08 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and a strikeout rate (20.6%) below his career mark (23.6%). In three seasons with Boston, Price hasn’t posted a strikeout rate below 24%. Postseason success has eluded him.

Still, his history of success against the Astros is strong, as is the slash line (.232/.293/.402) Price surrendered against right-handed hitters this season. In allowing a .301 wOBA against righties, Price turned them into Jon Jay, whose batting line (.268/.330/.347) in 2018 was substandard.

What the Astros showcased while sweeping the Cleveland Indians in the ALDS was an ability to devise a plan of attack against elite pitching and stick to it even through early-inning struggles. Their propensity to wear down opposing starters and tee off on suspect bullpens produced a blueprint for success against the Indians and is a logical course of action against the Red Sox.

“Talent wins over time, and I think this is a talented group,” Hinch said. “It’s also a tested group and I think that our guys have a good idea how to prepare and then how to implement. Success breeds more success and there’s a comfort in knowing … we believe that we can come back late in games. I just think our guys know that we can win and we can beat you in a lot of different ways.”

I have analyzed everything from preps to pros in Houston since the turn of the millennium, representing media entities large and small from the Houston Chronicle, FOX Sports Houston, CultureMap Houston, and The Sports Xchange. The written word is the method of choice, but r...