Clinton had a 20-point lead over her closest rival in the fall and was considered by some to be the presumptive nominee. But analysts said Obama's message of change could be attracting a critical group of voters in the final weeks before the primary -- independents.

The poll shows that Obama now leads Clinton among independent voters 36 to 26 percent.

Obama may have received a bump from Oprah Winfrey, who hosted a rally for Obama in Manchester on Sunday night. The event might symbolize Clinton's other problem -- her appeal to women.

Last month, Clinton had 42 percent of women's primary votes. Now, she has 33 percent to Obama's 28 percent.

"As Democrats see Clinton's electability become damaged, the next best thing is Obama right now," pollster Andy Smith said.

Although the race has tightened, there are reasons for Clinton's camp to remain calm. She still leads among Democratic voters 34 percent to 27 percent. She's also seen as the most experienced, with 44 percent saying she's strongest on the issue compared to Obama's 11 percent.

Clinton is also seen as the best bet to beat a Republican candidate, with 49 percent picking her, compared to 22 percent for Obama. Smith said that could be the deciding factor.

"What Democrats and Republicans are looking for is someone who's electable," he said.

Edwards saw his support increase 3 percent, but Smith says it would take an Edwards win in Iowa or an unexpected stumble by Obama or Clinton for him to make a major move in the New Hampshire race.

Richardson's campaign might also have run out of oxygen with so much focus on the others, Smith said.

But the poll shows that there still may be room for a candidate to move up. About 43 percent of likely Democratic voters said they are still undecided and won't pick their favorite until the final week.

Romney Holds Onto Lead Similar uncertainty on the Republican side means that race isn't over, even with Romney maintaining his lead. The poll shows 55 percent of likely Republican voters haven't fully decided whom to support.

Nonetheless, Romney is seen by 38 percent as the most electable Republican, compared to 30 percent for Giuliani. In September, Giuliani held the edge in electability, 32 to 21 percent.

"Romney is seen as the candidate most likely to win in November," Smith said. "(Giuliani) ceded lots of ground to Romney in the early parts of the campaign. It's harder to get that back than to gain support freely early on."

Giuliani has recently invested more in TV ads in New Hampshire and is locked in a fight with McCain to be the leading alternative to Romney.

"Giuliani has more money, but McCain may be in a better strategic position because Giuliani and Romney are fighting each other," Smith said.

McCain still has deep ties to the Granite state and is seen by likely voters as the most positive and most believable candidate.

Huckabee has improved, but it's unclear whether he can emerge as one of the top candidates in the state. Paul has remained steady but is not moving.

"(Paul has) been at 7 to 8 percent all this time, but I think there's a ceiling here," Smith said. "I could see him top out at 10 to 12 percent."

The major candidates in each party will debate in New Hampshire on Jan. 5 before voters head to the polls on Jan. 8.