D-Street In Love With Volatility, Expect Range-Bound Markets Ahead

Mar 01, 2019 | 15:20 PM IST

Mar 01, 2019 | 15:20 PM IST

Our Analysis

The week started on a cheerful note as in absence of the domestic trigger the D-street was tracing the global cues, the comment of Us President Trump on delaying the increase in the tariff of the Chinese goods boosted the sentiments of the investors, but border tension between India & Pakistan played a spoilsport, The correction in the market was not too sharp but certainly the volatility has been quite high as the VIX went just above the 19 Level.

The February month series ended on the negative note with loss of about 42 points after witnessing huge volatility in the month, Nifty closed just one point higher compared to the previous week. The overall sideways action continued for the 15th week.

Nifty most likely to move within the range next week too unless there is any further escalation in the Indo-Pakistan tension, Globally all eyes will be on the outcome of the second summit between Kim & Trump, Also the development on the Brexit front will keep the investor on their toes. Nevertheless, We have seen a solid buying from foreign portfolio investors, going forward that can bring a positive sentiment to the domestic investor too.

This Weeks Market Highlights:

Benchmark Indices:

1) On Monday, Bulls took the control with the Nifty and Sensex finished nearly 1 percent higher, The Sensex was up 341.90 points at 36213.38, while Nifty was up 88.40 points at 10,880.10.

2)Among Sector compiled by NSE advanced, led by the Nifty Private Bank Index's 1.1 percent gain. While, the Nifty realty Index was the top sectoral loser, down 0.7 percent.

3)On Tuesday, Indian equity benchmarks ended lower, The Sensex was down 239.67 points at 35973.71, while Nifty was down 44.80 points at 10835.30.

4)On Wednesday, Indian equity benchmarks ended lower for the second day, as the market remained volatile throughout the day amid tension between India and Pakistan.
5) the Sensex was down 68.28 points at 35905.43, while Nifty was down 28.60 points at 10806.70. Among Sector compiled by NSE ended lower, led by the Nifty Media Index 0.88 percent decline. While, the Nifty PSU Bank Index was the top sectoral gainer, up 0.52 percent.
6) On Thursday, Indian equity benchmarks ended lower on the F&O Expiry day. The Sensex was down 37.99 points at 35867.44, while Nifty was down 8.90 points at 10797.80.
7) On Friday, Benchmark indices started on a strong note after three-day fall.

Broader Index & Global Market:

- Globally, Wall Street was trading cautiously on the back of a host of events, Fed chairman reiterated that the fed will remain patient in determining the further adjustment to interest rate, given the uncertainty over the economic outlook.The optimism surrounding the US-China trade relations was seen fading as Us diplomat suggesting there was still more work to be done.

- In the broader market, The Mid-cap and Small-cap has outperformed the benchmark indices, we have witnessed a good buying interest from the investor in the broader market as compared to benchmark indices, the same can continue going forward.

Movers & Shakers

Shares of the Allahabad bank surged more than 8 percent in a week after RBI removed allahabad bank from its so-called prompt corrective action (PCA) list, the bank has also reduced the marginal cost-based lending rate by 10 basis points covering maturities effective from March 1.

Key Market Drivers

The government cut the tax rate on under construction and affordable housing to boost the real estate sector and ease the financial burden on home buyers. The GST Council Sunday decided to cut GST rate on affordable homes to 1% without input tax credit (ITC) from earlier 8 % with ITC.

There would be a delay in the plan on increasing Chinese imports as the trade talks between the two sides are making substantial progress, US President Donald Trump confirmed.

The GST on the under-construction flats, which were not under the affordable housing segment, has been reduced to 5 % and without ITC from 12 % earlier with ITC

NCLATs two-judge bench led by Justice S J Mukhopadhaya announced that no financial institution will declare the accounts of IL&FS including the amber companies as an NPA without prior permission of NCLAT.

The Centre's fiscal deficit in the first ten months of the current fiscal stood at Rs 7.71 lakh crore or 121.5% of the full-year target (revised estimate), as there is slower-than-projected growth in tax receipts, according to data released by the Controller General of Accounts on Tuesday.

China's official Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell to 49.2 in February, data showed on Thursday, the weakest level since February 2016.

Stocks To Watch

Nifty Trims Gains Ahead of F&O Expiry, ends below 10,800

Indian equity benchmarks started strong, Nifty was trading around 10,850 level. the Sensex was up 139.66 points at 36045.09, while Nifty was up 40.90 points at 10847.60. Among Sector compiled by NSE advanced, led by the Nifty PSU Bank Indexs 0.54 percent gain. The market breadth was inclining in favor of the buyer, About 525 shares have advanced, 138 shares declined, and 33 shares are unchanged. The rupee today edged higher against US dollar, rising to 71.15 a dollar, as compared to its Wednesday's close of 71.24.

In the afternoon session, the Indian equity benchmark has erased some of its gains of early morning. The Sensex was up by 71.29 points or 0.20% at 35976.72 and the Nifty up by 18.85 points or 0.17% at 10825.50. Expect IT, All sector were trading in green led by Metals, FMCG, Pharma. In a Broder Market, NSE mid-cap was up by 0.27% and smallcap indices were trading higher by 0.57%, respectively. Indian volatility index was down by 4.39% at 18.07.

In the last hour of trade, Indian equity benchmarks Indices had rebounded from days low, Nifty was trading at 10840 Mark. Indian equity benchmarks ended lower on the F&O Expiry day. The Sensex was down 37.99 points at 35867.44, while Nifty was down 8.90 points at 10797.80. Among Sector compiled by NSE declined, led by the Nifty IT Index was the top sectoral losers, down 1.1 percent. While NSE Nifty Realty Indexs grew by 0.99 percent. the broader Market outperformed the benchmark indices, the NSE MidCap Index was up by 0.45 percent and the NSE SmallCap Index grew by 0.77 percent. The market continued the range bound movement due to F&O expiry while mid & small cap outperformed as investors believe that border tensions wont continue for long. Additionally, the focus is likely to shift to economic data and possibility of the pre-election rally while FIIs inflow is picking up and rupee is gaining strength.

Today's Top Gainers

ONGC by 5.43% to Rs 150.50. ,VEDL by 3.67% to Rs 170.70, COALINDIA by 3.32% to Rs 228.80,BPCL by 2.36% to Rs 338.50, GAIL by 2.17% to Rs 343.00.

Today's Top Losers

TCS By -3.62% to Rs 1,983.50, EICHERMOT by -2.87% to Rs 19,821.60, ULTRACEMCO by -2.03% to Rs 3,810.00, MARUTI by -1.96% to Rs 6,831.95.,HEROMOTOCO by -1.81% to Rs.2,630.00.

Analysis Of Top Gainer And Loser

ONGC is the top gainer in today's market session, The Company has applied for Environmental Clearance (EC) for drilling 406 wells in its Mehsana asset in Gujarat at a cost of Rs 2,403 crore to tap into 13.65 Million Tonne of crude oil.ONGC was recently given an environmental clearance to drill 200 wells across various fields in Sivasagar district of Assam at a cost of Rs 6,000 crore. It has notified 11 new oil and gas discoveries in the current fiscal so far.

TCS is the top loser in today's market, There are risks to consensus earnings estimate of TCS. The consensus estimate so far is of a near-double-digit revenue growth YoY in constant currency terms (CC) and flat growth in margins over FY19-21. Analysts see macro risks in Europe, which may impact the banking and financial services (BFS) and manufacturing verticals. Besides, the focus on tapping onshore digital capabilities poses risk to margins.

US President Donald Trump's demand to keep prices down despite that the Saudi energy minister said on Wednesday that they are inclining toward extending oil production cuts in the 2nd half of 2019.

China's official Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell to 49.2 in February, data showed on Thursday, the weakest level since February 2016.

South Koreas central bank kept interest rates steady.

A stricter framework providing an exemption from open offer requirements with respect to corporate debt restructuring activities has been planned by the regulator Sebi.

U.S. Crude Oil Inventories are -8.647M, forecasted 2.842M.

Stocks To Watch

HAVELLS is on the upside while AUROPHARMA is on the downside.

HAVELLS is currently quoting at Rs.718.45 up by Rs 25.25 or 3.64% from its previous closing of Rs.693.20 on the NSE. The scrip opened at Rs.696.00 & has touched a high & low of Rs.718.50 and Rs. 695.55 respectively. So far 21,00,248(NSE) shares were traded on the counter. The current market cap of the company is Rs 44,693.17Cr. The NSE/BSE group stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs.754.25 on 07-FEB-2019 & a 52 week low of Rs. 483.65 on 02 -APR-2018.

AUROPHARMA is currently quoting at Rs. 710.70 down by Rs.-8.75 or -1.22% from its previous closing of Rs.719.45 on the NSE. The scrip opened at Rs.719.10 & has touched a high & low of Rs.726.90 and Rs.710.00 respectively. So far 28,30,605(NSE) shares were traded on the counter. The current market cap of the company is Rs 41,725.41Cr. The BSE/NSE group stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs 830.45 on 04-DEC-2018 & a 52 week low of Rs 527.00 on 04 -JUN-2018.

Indian equity benchmarks opened higher, Nifty hovering around 10,900 level. Asian shares were mostly higher today as investors watch the second summit between President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Vietnam. The Sensex was up 216.17 points at 36189.88, while Nifty was up 52.20 points at 10887.50. Among Sector compiled by NSE advanced, led by the Nifty Metal Indexs 1.01 percent gain. While, the Nifty IT Index was the only sectoral loser, down 0.36 percent. The market breadth was inclining in favor of the buyer. Midcap and smallcap index were also trading with a 0.5 percent gain, respectively.

In the afternoon session, Indian equity benchmarks are witnessing the selling pressure from higher levels, As Pakistan Jet violates Indian air space in Kashmir. The Sensex was up by 205.34 points or 0.57% at 36179.05 and the Nifty grew by 45.70 points or 0.42% at 10881.00. Expect IT, All sector were trading in green led by PSU bank and Infra. In a Broder Market, NSE mid-cap was up by 0.62% and smallcap indices were trading higher by 1.07%, respectively.

In the last hour of trade, Indian equity benchmarks Indices were trading lower, Nifty was trading 10820 Mark. Indian equity benchmarks ended lower for the second day, as the market remained volatile throughout the day amid tension between India and Pakistan. the Sensex was down 68.28 points at 35905.43, while Nifty was down 28.60 points at 10806.70. Among Sector compiled by NSE ended lower, led by the Nifty Media Indexs 0.88 percent decline. While, the Nifty PSU Bank Index was the top sectoral gainer, up 0.52 percent. the broader Market outperformed the benchmark indices, the NSE MidCap Index was up by 0.40 percent and the NSE SmallCap Index grew by 0.20 percent.

Top Gainers

BHARTIARTL by 2.66% to Rs 323.85. ,ULTRACEMCO by 2.15% to Rs 3,870.00, LT by 1.51% to Rs 1,285.00,BAJAJ-AUTO by 1.46% to Rs 2,901.00, SUNPHARMA by 1.29% to Rs 441.35.

Top Losers

INFRATEL By -3.73% to Rs 296.50, VEDL by -3.30% to Rs 164.10, WIPRO by -3.28% to Rs 374.95, TATAMOTORS by -3.23% to Rs 176.75.,HINDUNILVR by -2.07% to Rs.1,735.50.

Analysis Of Top Gainer And Loser

BHARTIARTL is the top gainer in today's market session, Bharti Airtel has invited Vodafone Idea to form a JV as far as fiber assets are concerned. The report further says that Bharti Airtel in the final stages of getting approval for demerger of its fiber assets.

IBULHSGFIN is the top loser in today's market, Company has witnessed selling pressure in todays market trade, Stock was down by 3.37% at 296.50.

The Centres fiscal deficit in the first ten months of the current fiscal stood at Rs 7.71 lakh crore or 121.5% of the full-year target (revised estimate), as there is slower-than-projected growth in tax receipts, according to data released by the Controller General of Accounts on Tuesday.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Tuesday said it would infuse Rs 12,500 crore into the system through open market operations.

US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un will meet on Wednesday for their second summit, betting that their personal relationship can break a stalemate over the Norths nuclear weapons.

Stocks To Watch

BEML is on the upside while INFOSYS is on the downside.

BEML is currently quoting at Rs.835.10 up by Rs 11.95 or 1.45% from its previous closing of Rs.823.15 on the NSE. The scrip opened at Rs.826.30 & has touched a high & low of Rs.852.95 and Rs. 823.20 respectively. So far 28,48,163(NSE) shares were traded on the counter. The current market cap of the company is Rs 3,481.48Cr. The NSE/BSE group stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs.1,418.55 on 05-MAR-2018 & a 52 week low of Rs. 521.25 on 26-OCT-2019.

INFOSYS is currently quoting at Rs. 734.50 down by Rs.-8.00 or -1.08% from its previous closing of Rs.742.50 on the NSE. The scrip opened at Rs.745.00 & has touched a high & low of Rs.746.40 and Rs.732.75 respectively. So far 59,36,126(NSE) shares were traded on the counter. The current market cap of the company is Rs 3,20,964.89Cr. The BSE/NSE group stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs 772.25 on 08-FEB-2019 & a 52 week low of Rs 551.00 on 16 -APR-2018.

Investors Turn Cautious Over Surgical Air Strike, Sensex Down by 239 Points

Indian equity benchmarks opened lower as geopolitical tension on Indo-Pak border has pulled the Nifty below 10,800. The Sensex was down 241.49 points at 35971.89, while Nifty was down 81.60 points at 10798.50. Top gainers were Bharti Infratel, Asian Paints and HCL Tech, while losers include Yes Bank, SBI, Indiabulls Housing, JSW Steel, ICICI Bank, Hindalco, Vedanta, Bajaj Finance and Rain Industries, Jet Airways, and Spicejet. The market breadth was inclining in favor of the seller.

In the afternoon session, Indian equity benchmarks Indices continued to trade lower. The Sensex was down by 282.96 points or 0.78% at 35930.42 and the Nifty declined by 79.65 points or 0.73% at 10800.45. Among sector expect Media everything was bleeding in red, Banks, Infra & Reality were among the top sectoral losers. In a Broder Market, NSE mid-cap was down by 1.00% and smallcap indices were trading lower by 1.11%, respectively.

In the last hour of trade, Indian equity benchmarks Indices bounced back from days low, Nifty was trading around 10850 Mark. Indian equity benchmarks ended lower, The Sensex was down 239.67 points at 35973.71, while Nifty was down 44.80 points at 10835.30. Among Sector compiled by NSE ended lower, led by the Nifty Realty Indexs 1.6 percent decline. While, the Nifty Media Index as the top sectoral gainer, up 3.2 percent. In the broader Market, the NSE MidCap Index was down by 0.14 percent and the NSE SmallCap Index declined by 0.77 percent. The market can remain volatile in the near term. On the global front, positive developments on the US-China trade deal is good for global markets, however, progress on Brexit deal front, crude oil price, and currency movement would be actively tracked by investors. Domestically, geopolitical tension between India and Pakistan would keep the markets volatile. Further, Indias Q3FY19 GDP numbers on Thursday would be keenly watched.

Top Gainers

ZEEL by 6.01% to Rs 471.90. ,TATAMOTORS by 4.13% to Rs 183.00, IOC by 2.81% to Rs 142.50,COALINDIA by 2.75% to Rs 220.25, TCS by 2.39% to Rs 2,032.50.

Top Losers

IBULHSGFIN By -3.49% to Rs 655.10, HCLTECH by -2.20% to Rs 1,058.40, HDFC by -2.03% to Rs 1,856.00, ICICIBANK by -2.00% to Rs 348.50.,INFY by -1.77% to Rs.741.55.

Analysis Of Top Gainer And Loser

ZEEL is the top gainer in today's market session, Mumbai-based media giant Zee Entertainment Enterprises Ltd (ZEEL) is looking for a 50 percent broadcast partner, and the company had narrowed down the search, ZEEL is in talks with both Comcast and Sony over the partnership. A deal announcement is expected imminently.

IBULHSGFIN is the top loser in today's market, Company has stated that the Company has made timely payment of interest/principal (as the case may be) on private placement basis, in respect to the following the NCDs issued by the Company.

Key Market News

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un arrived in Vietnam on Tuesday for a summit with US President Donald Trump where they will try to reach an agreement on a Norths Korean pledge to give up its nuclear weapons programme.

NCLATs two-judge bench led by Justice S J Mukhopadhaya announced that no financial institution will declare the accounts of IL&FS including the amber companies as an NPA without prior permission of NCLAT.

The trailing PE of BSE Sensex had jumped from 22.92 times on Friday to 26.55 times on Monday, a surge of around 16% in a single session. the variation in the ratio was due to the updated EPS data for Tata Motors on account of the recently announced Q3 results.

BHEL is currently quoting at Rs.65.00 up by Rs 0.65 or 1.01% from its previous closing of Rs.64.35 on the NSE. The scrip opened at Rs.63.55 & has touched a high & low of Rs.65.60 and Rs. 62.20 respectively. So far 65,64,549(NSE) shares were traded on the counter. The current market cap of the company is Rs 22,476.72Cr. The NSE/BSE group stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs.94.50 on 26-FEB-2018 & a 52 week low of Rs. 56.20 on 05-FEB-2019.

VIPIND is currently quoting at Rs. 408.60 down by Rs.-17.80 or -4.17% from its previous closing of Rs.426.40 on the NSE. The scrip opened at Rs.419.60 & has touched a high & low of Rs.419.60 and Rs.407.00 respectively. So far 7,49,484(NSE) shares were traded on the counter. The current market cap of the company is Rs 5,779.88Cr. The BSE/NSE group stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs 647.00 on 28-AUG-2018 & a 52 week low of Rs 287.10 on 19 -MAR-2018.

Nifty Ends Above 10,850, IT & Banks Lead Gains.

Indian Equity Benchmark indices started on a positive note, Following firm Asian markets, The US President Donald Trump confirmed he would delay a planned increase on Chinese imports as talks between the two sides were making "substantial progress". the Sensex was up 124.38 points at 35995.86, while Nifty up 27.00 points at 10818.70. Among sector compiled by NSE advanced, led by the NSE Nifty Realty Indexs 2.1 percent gain. The market breadth was inclining in favor of buyers.

In the afternoon session, Indian equity benchmarks Indices after a positive start erased some of its morning gains. The Sensex was up by 97.46 points or 0.27% at 35968.94 and the Nifty Grew by 17 points or 0.16% at 10808.65. Among sector Auto, IT & Reality were trading in the green, While PSU Bank, Infra were in red. In a Broder Market, NSE mid-cap was up by 0.39% and smallcap indices were trading higher by 0.60%, respectively.

In the last hour of trade, Indian equity benchmarks Indices was trading at days high on the back of IT stocks, Nifty was trading around 10850 Mark. Bulls took the control with the Nifty and Sensex finished nearly 1 percent higher, The Sensex was up 341.90 points at 36213.38, while Nifty was up 88.40 points at 10,880.10. Among Sector compiled by NSE advanced, led by the Nifty Private Bank Indexs 1.1 percent gain. While, the Nifty realty Index was the top sectoral loser, down 0.7 percent. In the broader Market, the NSE MidCap Index was up by 0.36 percent and the NSE SmallCap Index grew by 0.76 percent.

Top Gainers

TCS by 3.19% to Rs 1,987.00. ,BAJAJFINSV by 2.77% to Rs 6,367.05, INFY by 2.73% to Rs 755.00,GRASIM by 2.68% to Rs 779.00., YESBANK by 2.61% to Rs 227.80.

Top Losers

ADANIPORTS By -8.13% to Rs 325.50, INFRATEL by -3.06% to Rs 304.00, BPCL by -2.38% to Rs 336.00, HINDPETRO by -1.54% to Rs 227.40.,POWERGRID by -0.47% to Rs.181.05.

Analysis Of Top Gainer And Loser

TCS is the top gainer in today's market session, Today the overall IT pack has witnessed a good buying interest, TCS was the top performer of it all up by 3.19%.

ADANIPORTS is the top loser in today's market after its subsidiary Adani Logistics is set to acquire Adani Agri Logistics (AALL) from Adani Enterprises, The acquisition will be an all-cash deal and is expected to be completed by March 2019, the company said in its filing.

Key Market News

US President Donald Trump confirmed on Monday that he will delay a planned increase on Chinese imports as talks between the two sides were making substantial progress. Asian market surged to the highest.

The Reserve Bank on Friday created a single category for them by bundling their present three-tier structure, To provide greater operational flexibility to non-banking lenders.

Foreign investors on Friday poured a huge net of Rs 6,311 crore into the Indian capital markets, the highest inflow in a single day this month so far.

The government cut the tax rate on under construction and affordable housing to boost the real estate sector and ease the financial burden on home buyers. The GST Council Sunday decided to cut GST rate on affordable homes to 1% without input tax credit (ITC) from earlier 8 % with ITC. The GST on the under-construction flats, which were not under the affordable housing segment, has been reduced to 5 % and without ITC from 12 % earlier with ITC.

Prime Minister Theresa May suggesting parliament will not be able to vote on her Brexit deal until March 12, just days before Britain leaves the EU.

Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY posted 1.4%.

Stocks To Watch

UPL is on the upside while AUROPHARMA is on the downside.

UPL is currently quoting at Rs.847.65 up by Rs 20.30 or 2.45% from its previous closing of Rs.827.35 on the NSE. The scrip opened at Rs.828.00 & has touched a high & low of Rs.851.90 and Rs. 828.00 respectively. So far 36,85,600(NSE) shares were traded on the counter. The current market cap of the company is Rs 43,207.54Cr. The NSE/BSE group stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs.851.90 on 25-FEB-2019 & a 52 week low of Rs. 537.25 on 19-JUL-2018.

AUROPHARMA is currently quoting at Rs. 708.45 down by Rs.-22.75 or -3.11% from its previous closing of Rs.731.20 on the NSE. The scrip opened at Rs.738.50 & has touched a high & low of Rs.738.50 and Rs.705.00 respectively. So far 52,72,944(NSE) shares were traded on the counter. The current market cap of the company is Rs 41,578.93r. The BSE/NSE group stock has touched a 52 week high of Rs 830.45 on 04-DEC-2018 & a 52 week low of Rs 527.00 on 04 -JUN-2018.

At Niveza India Pvt Ltd., we all come to work everyday to take the challenges of stock market head on and to change people's
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optimum value to our subscribers through our well-researched stock recommendations....
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At Niveza India Pvt Ltd., we all come to work everyday to take the challenges of stock market head on and to change people's
perception that stock market investment is like a gamble. Over the years, we have built our profile as a company which has brought
optimum value to our subscribers through our well-researched stock recommendations. We don't promise you unrealistic returns,
we don't chase intraday or F&O dreams. We believe in the ideals of value & growth investment; these values are reflected in our
products. We are always marching ahead with the goal to better ourselves.

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