Osmond vs. Kim in PCS, a huge gap?

In the Canadian Championships sub-forum, a member had the following comment :

Originally Posted by Krislite

Yuna has quite a bit more advantage than only her 3Lz+3T against Kaetlyn, especially in the free skate. Kaetlyn's LP has no 3/3, repeats only the Flip and the Toe, whereas Yuna repeats the Lutz and Salchow. And of course there's a huge PCS gap, though Worlds being in Canada may narrow it a little bit. Kaetlyn also has a mild Flutz. Interestingly, both of them omit the 3Loop.

The bold & underlining was done by me. It got me thinking. Why "of course there's a huge PCS gap"? My reading of the member's post and tone is that because it's Yu Na, the Olympic Champion, since Krislite did not give any specific reasons. In other words, the "of course" comes from reputation as opposed to actual skating. Very often, fans criticized judges for seemingly giving marks based on reputation. What I have noticed is that fans do the same thing, if not far more often than judges. The same member kindly posted a link to Yu Na's clean FS at the most recent Korean Nationals here :

After watching it, I was very surprised how simplistic the choreography is compared to many of Yu Na's past work. So I posted my comments here and got a rebuttal, which I like to examine and solicit others' take on :

In my post, I have three main points: 1) Yu Na lacked difficult transitions between her elements. 2) Her choreography is overly simple and not challenging enough for what she is capable of 3) Her Interpretation stayed at the same level throughout the performance and failed accentuate the highs and lows of her chosen music

In response, member jaylee, had the following rebuttals for each of the above 3 points so I am going to fact check them for discussion purpose:

1) Yu Na lacked difficult transitions between her elements

Rebuttal :

She has steps preceding the 3F, back spiral preceding her second lutz (and a mini-spread eagle immediately exiting out of it), a spread eagle into the 2A combo, Ina Bauer into the final 2A. Her solo 3S exits directly into her footwork, which is important because transitions are not just about difficult entrances but about not having lots of set-up in between elements. Most skaters would not set up a jump right before their footwork. Along those lines, the choreographed spiral sequence into the Ina Bauer into the 2A is impressive for seamlessly linking a series of elements.

1b) "back spiral preceding her second lutz (and a mini-spread eagle immediately exiting out of it)"

Back spiral? Is this the back spiral referenced? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O59GUx8iJMI#t=2m04s If so, that ain't a spiral as the free leg never went above the hip and the position was not maintained for even half a second. In a spiral, it is very important the tension of the position be maintained in the upper body as well but there was no such tension in that "split second spiral", too short, no tension and free leg below the hip. Mini-spread eagle : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O59GUx8iJMI#t=2m11s That is not a spread eagle, not even by adding the qualification that it is a "mini". By definition, a spread eagle needs to be on either inside or outside edge with clear gliding movement. The video clip showed the edge is flat in an almost standing-still position - it is simply standing on two foot.

1e) "Her solo 3S exits directly into her footwork" This is factually correct but the subsequent interpretation of its value is incorrect. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O59GUx8iJMI#t=1m16s Going into a step sequence upon exiting a jump does not add value to the transition of the program given that this component criteria specifically evaluates the linkage between two elements. There is no linkage between the two elements to speak of here. I think the confusion here is the GOE bullet points on jumps in which Communication 1724 p. 10 allows difficult steps or elements immediately preceding a jump (e.g. performing a jump upon existing a spin) to be counted as one of the feature bullet point. Even then, the rules called for the steps or spins to be preceding the jump, not after the jump. There would be no positive GOE feature added to this jump either unless the order of the elements were reversed - the jump was executed immediately upon exiting the step sequence.

Of the 7 jumping passes, I counted only 2 cases of moves in the field preceding the jump / jump combo elements. To see if I was missing anything, I expand my evaluation to include the 3 spins in the program to see if more of them are being preceded with steps or moves in the field :

Conclusion : There is a serious lack of in-between skating in this program. Of the 10 jump and spin elements, only two of which are shown to be preceded with connecting steps and/or moves in the field. The video clips above were cut from the clip provided by Krislite demonstrate that the vast majority of Kim's elements were either executed one immediately after the other or were simply preceded by stroking. Hence, I gave that a 6.5 for TR, which I think is fair. Plushenko and Joubert have had very similar issues and despite their reputation, they should not be gifted on the TR marks neither should Kim.

As for points 2) and 3) regarding her choreography and interpretation, I am simply going to open it up for people to comment and tell us what they think. My view is that the choreography is a little too simple compared to her past work and the facial expression appeared to stay the same level throughout.

Do you feel Kim has a huge PCS advantage over Osmond based on their respective national long program performance? Since Krislite did not specify what "huge PCS gap" is, I am going to assume by huge, it is meant the difference would be at least 10+ points of difference in the overall PCS. Do you feel that is the case, based on their respective most recent performance at their nationals and why?

I disagree. It's not bashing. Wallylutz makes a fair point and has clearly outlined + either agreed or disagreed with the points made. I'm actually interested in other posters' rebuttals or agreements.

Wallylutz -- yes, you're right. Everything Yuna does is amateurish and juniorish, and oh-my-gosh, why cant' judges see how easy EVERYTHING SHE DOES is? How in the world does she manage to earn any points? Are judges simply too blind to see that she does NOTHING worth giving points to? She should get ZERO on every element for TES and ZERO for PCS as well for doing such an amateurish and simplistic program that even a novice girl can do with her eyes closed.

The fact that Yuna gets high scores is the definitive proof that the judges are corrupt, and competitions are rigged from the very beginning.

For me, it's tough to say how Yuna who came back just a month ago would do vs. a skater who has several months to refine her programs. So I'm not going to.

But, I do think that Yuna at her peak (and I don't believe she's there yet) does have an edge in PCS over Kaetlyn. Kaetlyn has grown leaps and bounds this season, but I still think she lacks the nuances/refinement that a polished Yuna program has.

Kaetlyn wins points for spunk and enthusiasm. Wallylutz does have a point that we have not seen Yu-na put her heart and soul into her performance yet. Still, based on what we have seen this season so far, Yu-na has to be the regarded as the front runner going into worlds.

Kaetlyn wins points for spunk and enthusiasm. Wallylutz does have a point that we have not seen Yu-na put her heart and soul into her performance yet. Still, based on what we have seen this season so far, Yu-na has to be the regarded as the front runner going into worlds.

If you have trouble accessing the first link, please use this one instead although this youtube link is from the Challenge as opposed the actual National Championship : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6xgObMFqkWU

There is no doubt Yu Na is the frontrunner going into the Worlds but that's beside the point of this thread. The question here is does Yu Na enjoy a huge PCS advantage, defined as equal or greater than 10 points, over Osmond at this point based on their most recent performance?

^ Thank you both. (Unfortunately I deleted my post to go search the Canadian's folder to see if it had been posted. Oh well. )

Very nice.

Edited to add The Challenge performance was super. Technical mistake do distract from the overall effect of the program.. (Plus, the video from Nationals was so high def that my computer couldn't download it fast enough to keep up.)

I do not have the expertise to judge skating skills and transitions, but the performance itself held my interest throughout.

Is this a joke? This is like comparing a NBA rookie [insert your favorite] to LeBron James...

Based on her recent performances, Osmond appears to be a good, promising skater with a lot talent (Sochi will be exciting!), but as of now, she can't compare to Yuna... who is one of the greatest female skaters of any generation. I personally find Osmond's spunk and exaggerated smiles (and those silly body shakes in her SP) rather shallow and juniorish, and while preferring more "enthused" outburst of emotion over more subtle and nuanced approach to skating may be a matter of personal taste, no one yet can match the fluidity and effortlessness with which Yuna performs her programs, especially her jumps. This is where Yuna beats every other skater hands down.

In the Canadian Championships sub-forum, a member had the following comment :

The bold & underlining was done by me. It got me thinking. Why "of course there's a huge PCS gap"? My reading of the member's post and tone is that because it's Yu Na, the Olympic Champion, since Krislite did not give any specific reasons. In other words, the "of course" comes from reputation as opposed to actual skating. Very often, fans criticized judges for seemingly giving marks based on reputation. What I have noticed is that fans do the same thing, if not far more often than judges. The same member kindly posted a link to Yu Na's clean FS at the most recent Korean Nationals here :

My claim that Osmond would not get the same PCS at Worlds against the likes of Yuna is simply based on what ISU judges have given these respective skaters in previous recent competitions (excluding Nationals). For Yuna the most recent case is NRW Trophy, where she averaged in the upper 8's despite her mistakes in the LP, while Kaetlyn averaged a 7 at Nebelhorn Trophy in her free skate. If you insist that Canadian nationals scores is not in any way inflated relative to international competitions, that's your prerogative.

I'm not basing this on reputation, but on the reasonable assumption that judges tend to be consistent and conservative with their PCS scores on skaters over several competitions, rarely varying them by much over course of a season. So I would be shocked if Osmond scored within 8 to 9 at Worlds even if she is clean. Skating skills, interpretation and choreography do not vary significantly in such a short period of time. It's the GOE's that vary more based on actual execution.

After watching it, I was very surprised how simplistic the choreography is compared to many of Yu Na's past work. So I posted my comments here and got a rebuttal, which I like to examine and solicit others' take on :

In my post, I have three main points: 1) Yu Na lacked difficult transitions between her elements. 2) Her choreography is overly simple and not challenging enough for what she is capable of 3) Her Interpretation stayed at the same level throughout the performance and failed accentuate the highs and lows of her chosen music

In response, member jaylee, had the following rebuttals for each of the above 3 points so I am going to fact check them for discussion purpose:

1b) "back spiral preceding her second lutz (and a mini-spread eagle immediately exiting out of it)"

Back spiral? Is this the back spiral referenced? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O59GUx8iJMI#t=2m04s If so, that ain't a spiral as the free leg never went above the hip and the position was not maintained for even half a second. In a spiral, it is very important the tension of the position be maintained in the upper body as well but there was no such tension in that "split second spiral", too short, no tension and free leg below the hip. Mini-spread eagle : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O59GUx8iJMI#t=2m11s That is not a spread eagle, not even by adding the qualification that it is a "mini". By definition, a spread eagle needs to be on either inside or outside edge with clear gliding movement. The video clip showed the edge is flat in an almost standing-still position - it is simply standing on two foot.

1e) "Her solo 3S exits directly into her footwork" This is factually correct but the subsequent interpretation of its value is incorrect. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O59GUx8iJMI#t=1m16s Going into a step sequence upon exiting a jump does not add value to the transition of the program given that this component criteria specifically evaluates the linkage between two elements. There is no linkage between the two elements to speak of here. I think the confusion here is the GOE bullet points on jumps in which Communication 1724 p. 10 allows difficult steps or elements immediately preceding a jump (e.g. performing a jump upon existing a spin) to be counted as one of the feature bullet point. Even then, the rules called for the steps or spins to be preceding the jump, not after the jump. There would be no positive GOE feature added to this jump either unless the order of the elements were reversed - the jump was executed immediately upon exiting the step sequence.

Of the 7 jumping passes, I counted only 2 cases of moves in the field preceding the jump / jump combo elements. To see if I was missing anything, I expand my evaluation to include the 3 spins in the program to see if more of them are being preceded with steps or moves in the field :

Conclusion : There is a serious lack of in-between skating in this program. Of the 10 jump and spin elements, only two of which are shown to be preceded with connecting steps and/or moves in the field. The video clips above were cut from the clip provided by Krislite demonstrate that the vast majority of Kim's elements were either executed one immediately after the other or were simply preceded by stroking. Hence, I gave that a 6.5 for TR, which I think is fair. Plushenko and Joubert have had very similar issues and despite their reputation, they should not be gifted on the TR marks neither should Kim.

Why wouldn't her moves before the 3Flip count as transition? They are steps; now as far as difficulty that's debatable, but how anyone would say they don't count as transitions I don't understand. The same with the move before the 3Lutz, it may not technically be a spiral, but it's still a transition; in particular it at least counts as a body-movement transition.

As for points 2) and 3) regarding her choreography and interpretation, I am simply going to open it up for people to comment and tell us what they think. My view is that the choreography is a little too simple compared to her past work and the facial expression appeared to stay the same level throughout.

Do you feel Kim has a huge PCS advantage over Osmond based on their respective national long program performance? Since Krislite did not specify what "huge PCS gap" is, I am going to assume by huge, it is meant the difference would be at least 10+ points of difference in the overall PCS. Do you feel that is the case, based on their respective most recent performance at their nationals and why?

I believe that the "huge gap" is how it will turn out before the international judging panel. If we were to take their two LP's at their nationals and assume they were in the same ISU competition, I would have no doubt Yuna would lead Kaetlyn in PCS by a huge margin, and not just because of Kaetlyn's errors in the LP.

Let's not conflate two things that I said in my previous aforementioned post. I said Osmond is not getting PCS in the range of 8 to 9.5 at Worlds and that there's a "huge" gap between her and Yuna. I certainly didn't claim that you or other judges/forum members would agree with this. I stand by my word: I highly doubt that Kostner, Asada et al, none of whom average the kind of PCS Osmond got at Canadian nationals, would be scored below Osmond in PCS, and that Osmond would get PCS scores like Yuna. And I'm not just saying this because of their reputation. They have superior skating skills and musical interpretation that will shine through even with errors. I'm pretty confident that at Worlds Osmond will not equal or surpass them in PCS even if she is clean.

Is this a joke? This is like comparing a NBA rookie [insert your favorite] to LeBron James...

I guess you forgot there is a rookie by the name of Jeremy Lin.

Based on her recent performances, Osmond appears to be a good, promising skater with a lot talent (Sochi will be exciting!), but as of now, she can't compare to Yuna... who is one of the greatest female skaters of any generation. I personally find Osmond's spunk and exaggerated smiles (and those silly body shakes in her SP) rather shallow and juniorish, and while preferring more "enthused" outburst of emotion over more subtle and nuanced approach to skating may be a matter of personal taste, no one yet can match the fluidity and effortlessness with which Yuna performs her programs, especially her jumps. This is where Yuna beats every other skater hands down.

Can you please elaborate a little more your points? Because what you seem to suggest is Yu Na is by far better because of her reputation and what does execution of jumps has to do with PCS except the cleaniness criterion?

This thread is obviously more about pulling up Kaetlyn's PCS through a 'debate' to save her the trouble of earning them 'on ice' over a course of a career of proven results - like everybody else.

To engage in a debate with a headstrong rogue English professor, he'd able to win the argument on why Shakespeare is no more relevant than the popularity of Dan Browns of today. Problem is he can't change history. Which has to be earned over a body of work, factually proven, written about, learnt, acknowledged, evolved not relative to his perspective but to how the rest of the world perceives them.

Does he have the right to challenge these conventions? Absolutely. However I do question how an ISU judge who has continues to demonstrate such strong national biases on internet figure skating forums over prolong periods are able mark competitions with complete impartial judgement. Perhaps he should start to address the imbalance a little closer to home, on why the Canadian Nationals's results continues to have a notorious reputation of inflation. On why so many disagree with many of the marks historically, and whether he think this Carmen FS performance was infact marked correctly.

We can then compare his expertise of this FS to the one at worlds in 2 months, to see how relevant his expertise really is.