Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Economics: once called the "dismal science" has progressed to the "incomprehensible science." Two economists can look at the same data and derive opposing conclusions based on their preconceived notions. While the rest of the world sees failed policy, overwhelming government debt, and high unemployment, the economist says:

"... one could argue better output performance could have been achieved with more government spending.... None of the foregoing should be construed to be an argument that the recovery is as strong as it could be. In point of fact, we know that had policymakers implemented a larger stimulus package in early 2009, additional infrastructure investment, as well as more aggressive job creation measures (e.g., tax incentives for new job creation), we would likely have had more rapid growth." [source]

You see, it's just that the government hasn't spent enough. The recovery [somewhere out there] would be stronger if the government had spent more on "shovel ready jobs."

Monday, July 30, 2012

Well, it did, but it didn't. The recorded temperatures were higher; the weather did not cause the higher temperatures.

If you have ever walked from a park on a sunny day to an asphalt-covered parking lot, you will understand the phenomenon of an "urban heat island." Now imagine what happens if you move an "official" weather station where "official" temperatures are recorded from that park to the middle of the parking lot.

KATHLEEN SEBELIUS, in her official capacity as Secretary of the United States Departmentof Health and Human Services;HILDA SOLIS, in her official capacity as Secretary of the United States Department of Labor;TIMOTHY GEITHNER, in his official capacity as Secretary of the United States Departmentof the Treasury;UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES;UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF LABOR;UNITED STATED DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY;

Defendants.

ORDER

Kane, J.

This matter is currently before me on Plaintiffs’ Motion for Preliminary Injunction (doc.
5). Based on the forthcoming discussion, Plaintiffs’ motion is GRANTED.

Now that the Obama administration has decided to aggressively shut down coal-fired power plants and make new coal-fired power plants prohibitively expensive by circumventing Congress and using EPA regulations... can other sources of electricity make up the difference and, if not, what are the consequences?

For now, it appears that natural gas is abundant and cheap enough to take up the lost capacity from coal. That would be an environmentally and economically good alternative [except in the coal producing states where the Federal government is about to cause economic chaos]. The push to solar and wind represents high risk alternatives. Why high risk? Because solar and wind are, at best, intermittent sources of power. Any major commitment to solar and wind powered electricity requires another significant investment in backup power... an economically unjustified strategy.

What would happen if the grid became unreliable because electricity sources were unreliable? Perhaps this:

The outage ... directly affected some 400 million people-more than the combined populations of the US and Canada...

City water treatment plants were shut down and airport and hospital services switched over to generators to partially restore services, a move which only added to the oppressive heat and worrisomely high levels of pollution.

The chaos generated by these frequent power cuts- know euphemistically as ‘load shedding’- lead frequently to protests and unrest on the streets.

This, in turn also resulted in a shortage of water as it could not be pumped up to overhead tanks, further fuelling their rage. [full article]

Hospitals Are Worried About Cut in Fund for the Uninsured

Published: July 26, 2012

President Obama’s health care law is putting new strains on some of the nation’s most hard-pressed hospitals, by cutting aid they use to pay for emergency care for illegal immigrants, which they have long been required to provide.

The federal government has been spending $20 billion annually to reimburse these hospitals — most in poor urban and rural areas — for treating more than their share of the uninsured, including illegal immigrants. The health care law will eventually cut that money in half, based on the premise that fewer people will lack insurance after the law takes effect.

But the estimated 11 million people now living illegally in the United States are not covered by the health care law. Its sponsors, seeking to sidestep the contentious debate over immigration, excluded them from the law’s benefits. [full article]

Why that is just astounding! Who would have thought that the mandate to provide hospital care to the uninsured combined with the un-funding of that mandate and the relaxation of any attempt to stop illegal entry into the country would have a negative impact on our hospitals? That was simply unforeseeable.

In order to understand that situation, one needs to ask, "Who built that situation?" Well, obviously not the hospitals because they didn't build the hospitals... or the "Affordable" Care Act

Thursday, July 26, 2012

Red herring: a distraction from the real issue. In this case, it is the major "scandal" regarding the Chick-fil-A owner's personal position on homosexual marriage. Stop the world! A Christian businessman finds the idea of homosexual marriage repugnant. Therefore, his company is a bad, bad thing.

Chick-fil-A Founder and Chairman S. Truett Cathy, who began his restaurant career more than 60 years ago with a single eatery, saw his company reach $4.1 billion in 2011 for an 13.08 percent increase over the previous year; same-store sales increased seven percent over 2010.

Since the first Chick-fil-A® restaurant opened in 1967, the company has posted 44 consecutive annual sales increases.

Chick-fil-A remains the second-largest quick-service chicken restaurant chain in the country and one of the nation's largest privately held restaurant chains. [source]

Yes, here is a company that provides decent products at decent prices and continues to grow and employ more people each year. But Mr. Truett didn't build that company. The Federal government and homosexuals who deserved to get married built that company! Just as Obama built this economic recovery... which started with the "summer of recovery" in 2010 and has now achieved an unemployment rate of... about the same when Obama took office.

Mr. Obama and his press minions are seeking any... ANY... diversion from the rotten performance of this administration. So when you hear about the next "crisis"... social, Syrian, whatever... think RED HERRING.

Oh, by the way, Muslims are vocally against homosexuals. Well, we can't have any Muslim businesses springing up, can we?

Wednesday, July 25, 2012

Just as President Obama cracks the whip for "social justice" [income redistribution] in his rhetoric to his followers, so does French President Francois Hollande. President Obama had "hope and change" while President Hollande had "change is now." So how is that old leftist slogan working out?

President Hollande's campaign slogan was "change is now" but, since he has been in office, another catchphrase has started to be heard more often. It is one inherited from the previous Socialist president, Francois Mitterrand - "Donner du temps au temps". It roughly translates as "all in due course" or "be patient, don't rush things".

Many of those who signed up for "change now" are none too happy about being told to be patient. One of the first campaign pledges the government fulfilled was to raise the minimum wage. But the increase met with derision from many union members. They calculated that it would only add up to a few extra euros a month, after tax.

"It's not even enough to buy a baguette a day," snorts Jacky.

At the same time, Mr Hollande's plan to sharply increase taxes on the super-rich and big companies has angered those who argue that it will lead to capital flight and a brain-drain to countries like Britain or Belgium.

I spoke to a group of architects in their 30s and 40s. On the face of it, they are doing quite well. The last thing any of them wants to do is leave France.

Most of them, in fact, voted for Mr Hollande but, like a lot of other middle-class people, they are starting to feel uneasy about the impact of higher taxes on their business.

They want more social justice but they also want the government to recognise that French companies have to be able to compete internationally.

So what do they want Mr Hollande to do?

One of them, a woman called Murielle, says he would do well to remember that, after two years of left-wing policies which did not work in the 1980s, Mr Mitterrand did a U-turn, becoming less radical and more friendly to business.

That, she says, led to a period of comparative prosperity. Mr Hollande will do the same, she predicts.

Tuesday, July 24, 2012

Back in 2007, I created this graphic to explain China's long-term expansionist goal which was based on the strategy of accumulating wealth by undercutting the world's manufacturers with cheap labor to become the world's manufacturing center. That strategy has worked superbly.

[click image to enlarge]

The latest tactic China is employing is to claim territory and vast tracts of ocean by establishing "cities".

China founded a new city yesterday more than 200 miles from the mainland, in a bid to cement control over 800,000 squares miles of the South China Sea.

Sansha is based on Yongxing Dao, or Woody Island, a petite heart-shaped island barely a mile long. It is shorter than its airport runway, which is left jutting out to sea.

China's 657th city, as classified by the country's State Council, has a floating population of a few hundred fishermen, a post office, library, bank, supermarket, and hospital and not much else. A casino is planned to drum up tourism.

But it will have a full 45 government officials to run the city, its own mayor, and a Communist party secretary, Fu Zhuang, who has spent his entire career in the People's Liberation Army, rising to become the deputy chief of the Air Defence Office of Hainan province.

It will also have a military garrison, responsible for "national defence mobilisation ... and carrying out military missions".

From here, China expects to administer almost the entire South China Sea, including both the Paracel and Spratly island chains.

While the Islamic march into Europe and America has garnered most of the attention in the West, China has steadily and stealthily worked toward expanding its own empire.

Monday, July 23, 2012

Most Democratic Party members will attempt to defend the well-intentioned efforts of their party to make sure everyone has an opportunity to get what is "rightfully" theirs. Thus, there are special provisions for medical school entrance and getting loans for housing that could not possibly have any downside.

With studies showing home foreclosures hitting blacks and Latinos hardest, the Obama administration’s answer is baffling as well as destructive — to lend them more money, repeating the cycle of easy credit that led to the housing boom and bust.

A new AARP report finds that even elderly minorities are facing serious mortgage delinquencies. Fifty-and-over African-Americans, for example, are almost twice as likely to lose their home as older whites.

President Obama’s solutions, however, look a lot like the original problems that landed minorities in the financial mess they’re in today.

For starters, his new consumer credit watchdog agency has quietly adopted weaker, minority-friendly mortgage underwriting guidelines first published in a landmark 1994 policy statement released by the little-known Interagency Task Force on Fair Lending.

The 20-page “Policy Statement on Discrimination in Lending” — signed by the heads of 10 federal agencies, including then-Attorney General Janet Reno — warned banks that “the agencies will not tolerate lending discrimination in any form.”

It was a noble goal — undercut by the fact that the statement also set lower standards by which banks could qualify low-income minorities with spotty credit.

“Applying different lending standards or offering different levels of assistance to applicants who are members of a protected (minority) class is permissible in some circumstances,” it said.

“Providing different treatment to applicants to address past discrimination would be permissible if done in response to a court order.”

The policy planted the seeds of the mortgage crisis, as lenders abandoned prudent underwriting standards altogether. Yet the 1-year-old Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, which was created by the Dodd-Frank financial overhaul, has dusted off the Clinton-era regulation.

Well, doesn't that explain a lot? President Obama believes in hoping that the same mistake will not have the same results. Time for a change.

It has been 3-1/2 years since Barack Obama took over as President of the United States. During that time, he claims to have "created" millions of jobs, but the record says that any job creation has been just enough to tread water... there has been no employment improvement during his term. The U.S. Unemployment Rate under Obama is above January, 2009 when he took office. [source]

The number of unemployed persons [in thousands] has not been reduced since Barack Obama took over as President of the United States. [source]

During the time since Barack Obama took over as President of the United States, the U.S. national debt has skyrocketed, tax rates are about to go up, spending on government programs has run amok, and what do we have to show for it?

A stimulus bill equivalent to 1,567 Golden Gate bridges. A 2011 federal budget equivalent to 6,788 Golden Gate bridges. And yet we don't have a single one.

Because that's not what Big Government does: Money-no-object government spends more and more money for less and less objects. For all the American economy has to show for it, President Bob the Builder took just shy of a trillion dollars in stimulus, stuck it in his wheelbarrow, pushed it halfway across the Golden Gate Bridge, and tossed it into the Pacific.

Instead of roads and bridges, Obama-sized government funds stasis and sclerosis: The Hoover Dam of regulatory obstruction, the Golden Gateway to dependency. Last month, 80,000 Americans signed on to new jobs, but 85,000 Americans signed on for Social Security disability checks. Most of these people are not "disabled" as that term is generally understood. Rather, it's the U.S. economy that's disabled, and thus Obama incentivizes dependency. What Big Government is doing to those 85,000 "disabled" is profoundly wicked. Let me quote a guy called Mark Steyn, from his last book:

"The evil of such a system is not the waste of money but the waste of people. Tony Blair's ministry discovered it was politically helpful to reclassify a chunk of the unemployed as 'disabled.' A fit, able-bodied 40-year-old who has been on disability allowance for a decade understands somewhere at the back of his mind that he is living a lie, and that not just the government but his family and his friends are colluding in that lie." [source]

And so where do we stand on the cusp of President Barack Obama's re-election victory?

US poverty on track to rise to highest since 1960s

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The ranks of America's poor are on track to climb to levels unseen in nearly half a century, erasing gains from the war on poverty in the 1960s amid a weak economy and fraying government safety net.

Census figures for 2011 will be released this fall in the critical weeks ahead of the November elections.

The Associated Press surveyed more than a dozen economists, think tanks and academics, both nonpartisan and those with known liberal or conservative leanings, and found a broad consensus: The official poverty rate will rise from 15.1 percent in 2010, climbing as high as 15.7 percent. Several predicted a more modest gain, but even a 0.1 percentage point increase would put poverty at the highest level since 1965.

Poverty is spreading at record levels across many groups, from underemployed workers and suburban families to the poorest poor. More discouraged workers are giving up on the job market, leaving them vulnerable as unemployment aid begins to run out. Suburbs are seeing increases in poverty, including in such political battlegrounds as Colorado, Florida and Nevada, where voters are coping with a new norm of living hand to mouth. [source]

So, Mr. President, just what about your term as President of the United States, qualifies you for a second term? IT CAN'T BE THE ECONOMY.

Saturday, July 21, 2012

By John Kemp(Reuters) - Proposed emission rules for new power plants unveiled by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) on March 27 spell the gradual demise of coal-fired power generation and entrench the current cost advantage for natural gas.

Since coal accounted for one-half of all electric power just a few years ago and now accounts for about one-third and dropping, what does that mean for the U.S.? Presently, there is an abundance of cheap, cleaner natural gas to take coal's place.

But US production appears to have peaked, finally, or maybe, after a historic supply-and-demand mismatch, though on a weekly basis, according to the EIA, production is still between 3% and 4% higher than the same week last year. However, given the collapse in drilling, production will eventually taper off, and might do so suddenly. Yet, demand from power generators has been skyrocketing as they’ve switched from coal to gas; and on a weekly basis, overall demand has jumped by over 10% when compared to the same week last year—and it’s burning up the record amount of gas in storage.

The EIA forecast of a slight upward drift in price? Compared to the reality graph beneath it? Natural gas doesn’t correct to a sustainable price to maintain it. It’s an industry of violent spikes and horrific descents, precisely because transportation is an issue. Oversupply can’t be corrected by exporting; it causes prices to plunge. And a shortage—a scenario the US may be facing at current trends—will be corrected initially by importing LNG in competition with the rest of the world. So prices may spike once again. [source]

What does that mean to the homeowner who heats with natural gas and receives electricity from a utility generating power from natural gas? Go back and read the last two paragraphs.

But wait! There is the rush to wind and solar power. Yes there is; yes we can! What does that mean? Perhaps we can learn from those who have done it.

Germany's revolutionary switch to renewable energies is stalling and the country's new environment minister has now admitted as much by casting doubt on the ambitious goals set last year. Media commentators say that he and the rest of Chancellor Merkel's government must do more.

Chancellor Angela Merkel outlined a grand vision for an energy revolution a year ago, shortly after her government had decided to shut down all nuclear reactors by 2022 in a spectacular about-face following the Fukushima accident.

Germany was to put itself at the forefront of the fight against global warming by radically expanding the use of renewable energy to 35 percent of total power consumption by 2020, rising to 80 percent by 2050. Currently, it represents 20 percent of the country's energy mix.

But now two ministers, Environment Minister Peter Altmaier and Economy Minister Philipp Rösler, have cast doubt whether the targets are reachable and said their priority is to make sure that electricity prices don't rise too much.

Altmaier, a close ally of Merkel who took over the ministry after his predecessor Norbert Röttgen was sacked in May, on Sunday cast doubt on whether Germany will be able to cut its energy consumption by 10 percent by 2020 as planned -- a precondition for reaching the 35 percent renewables target that year.

"If we still want to manage that somehow it will take huge efforts," he toldBild am Sonntag newspaper. Altmaier said his ministry had made mistakes, that there had been a lack of coordination and that forecasts for electricity prices had had to be revised. He even warned that the energy revolution could lead to social problems if prices rose too high. "For me it's a priority that electricity remains affordable," he told the paper. [source] - h/t Benny Peiser

Best advice: live near a forest and own a wood-burning stove and have a nice big fireplace. Get up at dawn, go to bed at sunset, and throw out your electronic devices. Be one with nature and maybe get a free membership to the Sierra Club. Don't worry about burning wood because you can regrow the trees and you'll be "carbon neutral"... or is that "carbon neutered?"

Friday, July 20, 2012

The United Nations is attempting to pass a small arms treaty under this pretext:

Insurgents, armed gang members, pirates, terrorists - they can all multiply their force through the use of unlawfully acquired firepower. The illicit circulation of small arms, light weapons and their ammunition destabilizes communities, and impacts security and development in all regions of the world. [SOURCE]

By preying on our fears of terrorists and gangs and even pirates, the representative of such progressive regimes as Iran and Yemen and Cuba are trying to institutionalize the disarming of citizens to leave them powerless against such magnificent political systems.

Well, don't believe a word of it.

Whatever you may think of the so-called "Arab Spring" or even the American Revolution, the disarming of the populace has been the goal of every lead-penny dictator since governments were instituted. Stalin loved it. Hitler loved it. Apparently, there are some in our U.S. government who love that idea as well.

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. — That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, — That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.

There are too many of our "enlightened" leaders... domestic and foreign... who really don't believe any of that and would roundly condemn those who do. Over 200-years ago, they were called Loyalists or Tories. Today they are called "representatives" or "government officials." They feel threatened by any power that may oppose them. They feel threatened that an armed populace is an uncontrollable populace. They bemoan the fact that the Bill of Rights are "negative rights" ... what the government can't do. They will do whatever it takes to dilute those rights in the name of "security and safety."

Those who would give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety.

“But,” Obama said, “The Supreme Court never ventured into the issues of redistribution of wealth and sort of more basic issues of political and economic justice in this society. And to that extent as radical as I think people tried to characterize the Warren Court, it wasn’t that radical. It didn’t break free from the essential constraints that were placed by the founding fathers in the Constitution, as least as it’s been interpreted, and Warren Court interpreted in the same way that generally the Constitution is a charter of negative liberties, says what the states can’t do to you, says what the federal government can’t do to you, but it doesn’t say what the federal government or the state government must do on your behalf. And that hasn’t shifted.” [source]

... what the Federal government "must do on your behalf" ... or, what he really meant, what the Federal government can do to you?

It isn't a tax; it's a penalty. It isn't a penalty; it's a tax. Shut up and pay us and forget about all of those rights. The government now determines what it can do to you. Bend over for your health check.

Thursday, July 19, 2012

After going to both Harvard Business School and Harvard Law School simultaneously, he passed the Michigan bar, but never worked as an attorney.

As a venture-capitalist, Romney's first major business deal involved investing in a start-up office supply company with one store in Massachusetts that sold office supplies. That company, called Staples, now has over 2,000 stores and employs over 90,000 people.

Romney or his company Bain Capital (using what became known as the "Bain Way") would go on to perform the same kinds of business miracles again and again, with companies like Domino's, Sealy, Brookstone, Weather Channel, Burger King, Warner Music Group, Dollarama, Home Depot Supply, and many others.

That's a grand total of 28 years of unpaid service to his country, his community and his church. Why? Because that's the kind of man Mitt Romney is!

And in 2011 Mitt Romney gave over $4 million to charity, almost 19% of his income....Obama gave 1%

Joe Biden gave $300 or .0013%

This is real character vs....well you know what!

Romney may not be the best representative the Republicans could have selected. At least I know what religion he is, and that he won't desecrate the flag, bow down to foreign powers, or squander my money on vacations. I know he has the ability to turn this financial debacle that the "Spending President" has gotten us into.

We didn't know that when Obama said he'd give us change, he meant nickels and dimes, and he would get the big bucks.

We won’t like all the things necessary to recover from this debt, but someone with Romney’s background can do it.

But, on the minus side,

He never was a "Community Organizer", never took drugs or smoked pot.

Never got drunk. Did not associate with communists or terrorists.

Nor did he attend a church whose pastor called for God to damn the US ....

From Martin Luther King, Jr.:

I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin but by the content of their character.

The pair plan to launch a balloon to ascend 80,000 feet over Fort Sumner, New Mexico, before pumping out tens or hundreds of kilograms of sulphate aerosols into the sky. The idea is that the particles will reflect sunlight back into space, helping decrease the temperature of the Earth. [more]

What does the EPA think about this? Intentionally polluting our atmosphere in the name of science? Well, if it protects us from CO2, it must be okay. [image]

Consumers who access products in the short-term instead of owning them show greater indifference toward these products and identify less with the brand and other consumers, according to a new study in the Journal of Consumer Research.

"Our study represents the first look at how consumers think, feel, and act when they are accessing rather than purchasing products, and we discovered that the nature of access-based consumption is inherently different from ownership," write authors Fleura Bardhi (Northeastern University) and Giana M. Eckhardt (Suffolk University).

The authors interviewed users of the Zipcar car sharing service and found that consumers do not feel any psychological sense of ownership. Although Zipcar is attempting to build a brand community, consumers currently do not want this type of engagement. Their lack of trust and their perception of the brand as enforcer lead them to engage with the brand solely as a service provider.

"Zipcar uses a strict style of governance to maintain compliance with the rules of car sharing to make sure cars aren't brought back late, the gas tank is filled, etc. Consumers like and even want more of this surveillance, as they feel it is the only way the system can work effectively, since they don't trust each other to obey the rules without Zipcar's heavy handed enforcement," write the authors.

"Our study challenges the romanticized view of access understood as a form of collaborative consumption and altruistically motivated. Instead, we show it to be the reverse, with everyone looking out for their own best interest and not connecting to the objects they are accessing, other consumers, or the company," the authors conclude.

What? People will respect and maintain something they have a financial interest in above and beyond a "shared asset?" Who would have thought?

And it takes a "strict style of governance to maintain compliance" in these communal efforts? Oh, Barack, what will we do?

Sen. Reid represents all that is wrong in the U.S. government [along with his compatriot Rep. Nancy Pelosi]. They pander while being the most two-faced specimens imaginable.

Vince Flynn's book quoted Thomas Jefferson:

"Whenever any form of government becomes destructive of these ends [i.e., securing inherent and inalienable rights, with powers derived from the consent of the governed], it is the right of the people to alter or abolish it, and to institute new government, laying its foundation on such principles, and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their safety and happiness." --Thomas Jefferson: Declaration of Independence, 1776. ME 1:29, Papers 1:315 [source]

There is little doubt that Thomas Jefferson would have been speaking directly about Barack Obama, Harry Reid, and Nancy Pelosi had he had the chance. He would have approved of term limits for them.

“This is my last political campaign…I’m term limited,” he said Saturday at Centreville High School in Clifton, Virginia in remarks that were similar to others he’s delivered in recent weeks. -- President Barack Obama [source]

I suspect Vince Flynn's fictional Rep. Michael O'Roarke might have felt comfortable with term limits for Harry and Nancy. But we would be happy if they simply didn't run again. Fat chance. Still too much pork to barbecue.

... The Government is on course for an embarrassing showdown with the European Union, business groups and environmental charities after refusing to guarantee that billions of pounds of revenue it stands to earn from carbon-permit trading will be spent on combating climate change.

Tracking Interest Rates

FEDERAL RESERVE & HOUSING

SEARCH BLOG: FEDERAL RESERVE for full versions... or use the Blog Archive pulldown menu.

February 3, 2006 Go back to 1999-2000 and see what the Fed did. They are following the same pattern for 2005-06. If it ain't broke, the Fed will fix it... and good!August 29, 2006 The Federal Reserve always acts on old information... and is the only cause of U.S. recessions.December 5, 2006 Last spring I wrote about what I saw to be a sharp downturn in the economy in the "rustbelt" states, particularly Michigan.March 28, 2007

The Federal Reserve sees no need to cut interest rates in the light of adverse recent economic data, Ben Bernanke said on Wednesday.

The Fed chairman said ”to date, the incoming data have supported the view that the current stance of policy is likely to foster sustainable economic growth and a gradual ebbing in core inflation”.

July 21, 2007My guess is that if there is an interest rate change, a cut is more likely than an increase. The key variables to be watching at this point are real estate prices and the inventory of unsold homes.August 11, 2007 I suspect that within 6 months the Federal Reserve will be forced to lower interest rates before housing becomes a black hole.September 11, 2007It only means that the overall process has flaws guaranteeing it will be slow in responding to changes in the economy... and tend to over-react as a result.September 18, 2007I think a 4% rate is really what is needed to turn the economy back on the right course. The rate may not get there, but more cuts will be needed with employment rates down and foreclosure rates up.October 25, 2007 How long will it be before I will be able to write: "The Federal Reserve lowered its lending rate to 4% in response to the collapse of the U.S. housing market and massive numbers of foreclosures that threaten the banking and mortgage sectors."November 28, 2007 FED VICE CHAIRMAN DONALD KOHN

"Should the elevated turbulence persist, it would increase the possibility of further tightening in financial conditions for households and businesses," he said.

"Uncertainties about the economic outlook are unusually high right now," he said. "These uncertainties require flexible and pragmatic policymaking -- nimble is the adjective I used a few weeks ago."http://www.reuters.com/

"The odds of a recession are now above 50 percent," says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. "We are right on the edge of a recession in part because of the Fed's reluctance to reduce interest rates more aggressively." [see my comments of September 11]

January 7, 2008 The real problem now is that consumers can't rescue the economy and manufacturing, which is already weakening, will continue to weaken. We've gutted the forces that could avoid a downturn. The question is not whether there will be a recession, but can it be dampened sufficiently so that it is very short.January 11, 2008 This is death by a thousand cuts.January 13, 2008 [N.Y. Times]

“The question is not whether we will have a recession, but how deep and prolonged it will be,” said David Rosenberg, the chief North American economist at Merrill Lynch. “Even if the Fed’s moves are going to work, it will not show up until the later part of 2008 or 2009.”

January 17, 2008 A few days ago, Anna Schwartz, nonagenarian economist, implicated the Federal Reserve as the cause of the present lending crisis [from the Telegraph - UK]:

The high priestess of US monetarism - a revered figure at the Fed - says the central bank is itself the chief cause of the credit bubble, and now seems stunned as the consequences of its own actions engulf the financial system. "The new group at the Fed is not equal to the problem that faces it," she says, daring to utter a thought that fellow critics mostly utter sotto voce.

January 22, 2008 The cut has become infected and a limb is in danger. Ben Bernanke is panicking and the Fed has its emergency triage team cutting rates... this time by 3/4%. ...

What should the Federal Reserve do now? Step back... and don't be so anxious to raise rates at the first sign of economic improvement.

Individuals and businesses need stability in their financial cost structures so that they can plan effectively and keep their ships afloat. Wildly fluctuating rates... regardless of what the absolute levels are... create problems. Either too much spending or too much fear. It's just not that difficult to comprehend. Why has it been so difficult for the Fed?

About Me

Air Force (SAC) captain 1968-72. Retired after 35 years of business and logistical planning, including running a small business. Two sons with advanced degrees; one with a business and pre-law degree. Beautiful wife who has put up with me for 4 decades.
Education:
B.A. (Sociology major; minors in philosopy, English literature, and German)
M.S. Operations Management (like a mixture of an MBA with logistical planning)

U.S. Statewide Temperature Records

High and Low temperature extremes - updated through 2011. These records establish the climate boundaries for each state and are shown by decade of occurrence. If a previous record is tied, the most recent occurrence is counted and the previous occurrence is dropped... a slight bias toward later decades. SOURCE DATA

You Get The Government For Which You Voted

Blame the people who voted for the person who nominate that person who will be confirmed by the people who were elected by the people who simply didn't understand what was meant by a "pig in the poke." Or, to put it another way, "... we have to pass the bill [confirm the nominee] so that you can find out what is in it [her mind]...."

via www.patdollard.com

What's Your Plan?

New Definition Of Constitutional Law

Together with Justice Sonia Sotomayor, Elena Kagan's confirmation would represent a shift toward a younger, changing court, one that values experiences outside the courtroom and emphasizes personal interactions as much as deep knowledge of the law.
The Washington Post

Current Weather

When will the economic turnaround occur?

Until business perceives that the government is not going to continually change the rules of the game, there will be a reluctance to commit resources and hire people. And until that happens, the economy will languish.

The government is trying to push the economy higher with mandates, taxes, and higher spending; but it needs the private sector to pull it higher with real demand.

The Obama administration is open to the idea of taxing the wealthiest Americans to pay for healthcare reform, health secretary Kathleen Sebelius suggested yesterday as the House of Representatives prepares to incorporate such a plan in its draft healthcare bill.

In the spirit of Thomas Jefferson, legislative information from the Library of Congress [THOMAS]

"There is danger from all men.The only maxim of a free governmentought to be to trust no man living with powerto endanger the public liberty." - John Adams

"An enlightened citizenry is indispensable for the proper functioning of a republic. Self-government is not possible unless the citizens are educated sufficiently to enable them to exercise oversight." - Thomas Jefferson

We would have been richer had there been no nature-induced recession

“North American temperatures would have been considerably colder in 2008 had there been no human-induced warming influence present,” Perlwitz said.
[Source]

Ironic Words

March 2007

The science is settled, Gore told the lawmakers. Carbon-dioxide emissions — from cars, power plants, buildings and other sources — are heating the Earth's atmosphere.

Gore said that if left unchecked, global warming could lead to a drastic change in the weather, sea levels and other aspects of the environment. And he pointed out that these conclusions are not his, but those of a vast majority of scientists who study the issue.

Members of the committee, Democrats and Republicans alike, listened very carefully to Gore, as they seemed to take to heart his final message: that in a few years this whole debate will look very different.

"This is not a partisan issue, this is a moral issue," Gore said. "And our children are going to be demanding this."

Climate Forcings - Consensus Without Knowledge?

Just Disregard The Sun Above Your Heads... It's The CO2 You Produce

As of Sept. 15, the current solar minimum ranks third all-time in the amount of spotless days with 717 since 2004. There have been 206 spotless days in 2009, which is 14th all-time. But there are still more than 100 days left in the year, and Perry expects that number to climb. Perry, who studies sunspots and solar activity in his spare time, received an undergraduate degree in physics at Kansas State University and a Ph.D in physics and astronomy at The University of Kansas. He also has spent time as a meteorologist.