Outlook: It's never a good thing when the biggest story surrounding
an NFL franchise isn't the team's draft from April
and isn't the potential of a deep playoff run in the upcoming
season. What's worse is when the story involves the franchise
potentially being relocated, especially when the franchise quarterback
has made it clear that he has little to no interest in remaining
with the team if the move does happen. That kind of frustration
and general apathy toward the team rarely breeds fantasy success,
but it's the exact scenario that is playing out in San Diego
right now with quarterback Philip Rivers.

Rivers, who has not missed a start since becoming the team's
top signal caller back in 2006, enters the 2015 season with a
whirlwind of speculation surrounding the team and must somehow
figure out a way to match, if not exceed his 2014 output if he
wants to be a top 10 fantasy option.

Although he is coming off of back-to-back seasons where he exceeded
the 30-touchdown mark, Rivers also threw an uncharacteristic 18
interceptions this past season – the second-highest total
of his career. Much of this was due to inconsistencies in the
offense, injuries across the board and a general lack of blocking
from his offensive line. The team did make moves to address the
offensive line by bringing in free agents Orlando Franklin and
Joe Barksdale. While both players should be positives in the running
game, Barksdale was atrocious as a pass protector for the Rams
in 2014. If Barksdale doesn't make major improvements to
his game, Rivers could be seeing plenty of pressure from the right
side of the offensive line which could again translate into an
abnormally high number of turnovers.

Still, Rivers remains the most important piece of the puzzle
in San Diego. The team should have a more consistent, if not more
productive running game this season which should give the team
more opportunities to score. With a plethora of decent receiving
options but no one elite, Rivers could be the one player who provides
consistent, high-quality fantasy production in this offense.

Outlook: After a shoulder injury limited him to just nine games in 2013,
Rodgers roared back in 2014, planting his flag on the pinnacle of
the fantasy quarterback mountain. Rodgers nabbed his second NFL
MVP award and finished with 33 more touchdowns than interceptions
(30+ four times in the last five seasons). With the re-signing of
the electric Randall Cobb, the assumed health of Jordy Nelson, and
the development of young pass catchers Devante Adams, Jeff Janis,
and Richard Rodgers, A-Rod helms the league’s most potent passing
attack, making him an elite QB1.

Most of the offseason buzz surrounding the Packers concerns the
growth of Adams and Janis, two players who should provide Rodgers
with a veritable barrage of weapons to deploy against NFL defenses.
It will also be interesting to see how a change in play callers
will affect the Packer’s offensive aggressiveness, as Mike
McCarthy gives way to Tom Clements. With nearly unrivaled offensive
weaponry, a consistent offensive system, and a need to score points
to protect an inconsistent defense, Rodgers yearly domination is
one of the surer things in fantasy football. But if you look deeply
enough through the roses and buttercups, some ugly spots lurk in
the background that could foil the best laid plans.

After several injuries early in his career slapped him with an “injury
prone” label, Rodgers has been a 16 game starter in six of
the last seven seasons. But the last two seasons haven’t ended
well from a health perspective. The severe calf injury to close
out the 2014 didn’t cause him to miss games, but it severely
limited what he could do outside the pocket, and may have revealed
the start of a potential physical breakdown. Combine his age (31)
with the fact that the NFC North defenses should be collectively
better in 2015 than they were last year, means there could be a
few more bumps in the road than normal.

Every princess has a wart somewhere, but that doesn’t mean you don’t
take them to the ball. Rodgers should be battling Andrew Luck for
QB1A supremacy, so consider yourself at a distinct advantage with
Aaron leading your squad.

Outlook: Since Todd Haley’s hiring as offensive coordinator in 2012, Ben Roethlisberger has blossomed into a bona fide QB1, but there is a good bet that when he went bonkers with a 50-point game in Week 8 last year he was on your fantasy bench. Did you then curse your luck, pass it off as a statistical aberration and have him on your bench the very next week when he threw another 6 touchdown passes? (let’s hope I’m not the only one!). After watching the Steelers offense shift to a pass oriented mentality since Haley’s arrival, I’ve been targeting Roethlisberger as my QB2 for several seasons now. After his No.5 overall finish in 2014, I think the value days are over.

With career highs in attempts (608), yards (4,952), touchdowns (32) and completion percentage (67.1), Roethlisberger is taking his game to the fantasy stratosphere. With two of the league’s elite playmakers at his disposal in Le’Veon Bell, and Antonio Brown, Roethlisberger not only has the weapons, but also the perfect situation to repeat, or even improve upon his fantastic season. With a pass offense built around his talents, and a defense that hasn’t significantly improved this offseason, look for Big Ben’s pass attempts to again approach 600. Despite the projected workload and production, Roethlisberger doesn’t come without risks. The AFC south defenses, especially Cleveland and Jacksonville, should be much improved, and as a playoff team, the Steeler’s overall schedule will be tougher. Roethlisberger will also be without Bell for three games to start the season, which is a huge blow to the offensive game plan. Either way you slice it, the Steelers are going to have to throw to win games, and that means Ben has a chance to stay in the top-5 conversation. I would be thrilled to sit back and take him as my QB1 after the first tier studs come off the board.

Outlook: Despite finishing 13th in fantasy points per game for quarterbacks, Tony Romo was the most efficient quarterback in the NFL last season, leading the league in passer rating, completion percentage rate, and yards per attempt. An improved offensive line gave Romo more time to survey the field and deliver quality, low-risk throws, while the emergence of DeMarco Murray and the ground attack forced opposing defenses to play single coverage outside and opened the door for more play-action passes. The formula worked so well that the Cowboys finished the season with a 12-4 record and an NFC East divisional crown. The Cowboys will continue to use the same balanced attack in 2015 despite the loss of DeMarco Murray to the Eagles via free agency. This bodes well for Romo owners in that he will not be forced to throw the ball 40-plus times to win a game, however, the continued reduction in pass attempts and yardage eats into his overall value, keeping him out of the top-5 quarterback discussion.

Outlook: Matty Ice is coming off his fourth straight season with at least 4100 passing yards but his touchdown totals continue to suppress his fantasy value. In 2012, Ryan needed over 600 passing attempts to post over 30 passing touchdowns and finished as the fifth best fantasy passer that year. The new regime in Atlanta isn’t likely to allow their prized franchise quarterback to drop back that many times in 2015 which makes another top five finish unlikely. However, he remains a viable option after the top five quarterbacks are off the board because of his high efficiency and the talent on the outside to post big games. The 30-year old Boston College alum will be learning a new offense in his eighth season as a pro. The zone blocking and new personnel should also help Ryan stay upright more often causing less negative plays than in recent seasons. Though he will likely finish with fewer passing attempts, Ryan will certainly enjoy the upgrade at the tight end position and potential for play action that comes with a more respected ground game.

Outlook: Mark Sanchez and newly acquired Sam Bradford will compete for the starting quarterback role for head coach Chip Kelly. Although Sanchez has nine games under his belt running Kelly’s offense last season, the Eagles made a big splash this offseason by acquiring Bradford via trade with the Rams for former starter Nick Foles, making it clear that Bradford will be the starter if he can stay healthy. Staying healthy has been a difficult task for Bradford, after sustaining a second severe knee injury last season as a member of the Rams. If Bradford is not able to stay on the field, Sanchez will take the wheel on an offense that ranked sixth in passing yards per game in 2014. Although Sanchez did post a career high 64.1% completion percentage in nine games in 2014, including an impressive 374-yard, two-touchdown performance against the Redskins in Week 16, he is only worthy of a late-draft pick considering the depth of the quarterback position. However, an injury to Bradford would make Sanchez a viable streaming option later in the season.

Outlook: A perennial “safe but not spectacular” fantasy quarterback, Kansas City’s Alex Smith finished 19th among QBs in fantasy scoring in 2014, down three spots from 2013. One of the biggest reasons for that drop-off in production was Smith did far less with his legs a season ago than he did in 2013. No longer considered much of a threat to run, Smith now relies heavily on being a dink-and-dunk passer who rarely turns the ball over and keeps his team in games. This is good enough for the Chiefs, who have one of the best running games in the league and a defense that has taken significant strides forward since Andy Reid’s arrival, but it does not do much for fantasy owners who would rather see offensive shootouts involving their quarterback.

With long-time Chiefs receiver Dwayne Bowe now out of the picture, Smith will throw to almost an entirely new set of pass-catchers in 2015. This could lead to good things over time, as the previous unit did not live up to expectations, but it could also spell trouble in the early part of the season if the chemistry is slow to build. Smith notably did not throw a single one of his 18 touchdown passes to a wide receiver in 2015, which gives his receivers some serious bust potential and really limits their cap, but the way Smith is able to distribute the ball to a variety of targets keeps defenses on their heels and can lead to some nice games from the quarterback himself. Look for Smith to be a late-round QB2 in most formats with the potential to be on the waiver wire in some leagues. He’s not likely to give you many monster games, but he could be a valuable plug-and-play quarterback if he’s in a favorable matchup.

Outlook: Geno Smith enters the 2015 as the starter for the New York Jets in what could be a make-or-break season for the former first round pick from West Virginia. In his first two years in the NFL, Smith has yet to complete more that 60 percent of his passes or reach 15 or more passing touchdowns in a season. From a fantasy perspective, Smith appeared to have some value as a rookie when he rushed for 366 yards and six touchdowns. However, that added value from points on the ground evaporated last year when he managed just one rushing touchdown on 59 attempts. In his rookie season with the team, Smith had a subpar supporting cast of wide receivers and skill position players that undoubtedly made his transition to the NFL difficult. With the addition of veteran wide receiver Brandon Marshall in the off-season to go along with Eric Decker and tight end Jace Amaro, Smith has all the pieces in place to be successful. Now he must prove that he is the quarterback of the future and not another early-round quarterback bust for the Jets.

Outlook: To say Matthew Stafford had a regression in 2014 is akin to calling water wet. It was obvious to every disappointed Stafford owner last year, as he finished outside the QB1 threshold after finishing in the top-5 the previous year. Those in Stafford’s corner will say it was his first year in a complicated system, and he was without Calvin Johnson for a good chunk of the season. Despite the low touchdown total (22), he completed over 60% of his passes for only the second time in his career, and threw a career low 12 interceptions. He finished 2014 by leading his team to the playoffs, and posting a strong 8-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio to go along with two 300-plus-yard games over the last five games of the season.

If you believe the final five games of the 2014 season are a precursor to 2015 success I might wait to buy a ticket on the Stafford hype train. Being a former long-time Detroit area resident, I’ve watched Stafford play extensively over the years, and I’ve come to conclusion that he’s a mediocre quarterback. Sure his arm talent is nearly unrivaled, but during a game you are as likely to say “wow, how the heck did he make that throw?”, as you are to say “why the heck did he make that throw!”. After six years in the league he still hasn’t developed a consistent ability to put touch on the ball, and his fantasy stats have been largely influenced by a ridiculous number of pass attempts. He fails to elevate the players around him, and struggles mightily when any of them miss time. Some games he throws darts all over the field for four quarters, and in others can’t hit a car dealership in suburban Detroit! (it’s a Michigan thing, just trust me). With the Lions publically stating a desire to commit more to the running game (their first two draft picks support this idea), Stafford’s pass attempts should be the lowest since his rookie year. The health of Calvin Johnson and development of Eric Ebron will go a long way in helping his Ryan Fitzpatrickian sub 50% completion percentage in the red zone. Stafford is a great option for owners looking to add their starting quarterback later in the draft as he provides a fairly high floor, and ceiling, but don’t rush out to build your roster around the former Bulldog. Think low end QB1 with 30+ touchdown upside.

Outlook: Tannehill posted career highs in passing yards, passing touchdowns, completion percentage, and rushing yards in route to finishing as the No.10 fantasy quarterback in 2014. With a new $77 mil, 4-year contract extension inked in the offseason and four new offensive weapons in Kenny Stills, Greg Jennings, Jordan Cameron, and first round pick DeVante Parker, Tannehill looks primed to take another big step forward up the fantasy rankings. Stills will help provide a deep threat to stretch the field, while Cameron and Jennings will attack the middle in short and intermediate routes. If Parker (foot) can get healthy and live up to the hype that earned him the 14th selection in the 2015 draft, there is an excellent chance that Tannehill will continue to improve on his numbers from last season and will be a solid QB1 in all formats.