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"From its chamber comes the whirlwind, and cold from the scattering winds." - Job 37:9.

"The wind blows to the south and turns to the north; round and round it goes, ever returning on its course".

Saturday, July 2, 2011

IMAGE FROM SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS PAGE: Weak low pressure
circulation off the east coast with a nearly stacked trough across far Southern Osceola County along the red dashed line in general. Little should chance today in this regard

TODAY: The mid-level trough axis that passed from North to South through Central Florida yesterday is now located approximately where the red dashed line is shown. Much drier air resides to the north of this line, mainly just north of the Beach-line. There is still sufficient low level moisture to generate cumulus clouds well to the north toward JAX, but whether showers can generate in the area with the question mark and into the yellow zone (where there is even more moisture) is debatable.

CENTRAL: Believe that given that there is some moisture well off shore, and the fact that instability is starting to reach 'moderate levels' all up and down the Gulf Stream, some healthy showers could manifest with a little more daylight well offshore. Guidance has been hinting that there could be a 'wind surge', or uptick in the surface wind from the ENE at or shortly after noon time. If so, this could act as a moisture converging mechanism, provide lift, and possibly much some showers on shore from just preceding the surge to just after ...that give this area roughly a one hour window, sometime between 11:15AM -12:30pm to get some rain, more likely in the yellow area. TShowers will quickly dwindle as they reach beyond the Orlando area, if even. But note, there is a caveat in the second image for a renegade thunderstorm along or just west of I-95 in Central Brevard (roughly) during this time. If so, it would be short-lived. The other caveat is that the ocean temperature at the coast is cooler than that over the Gulf Stream the past few days. Showers, if they do generate there, might die off before reaching shore (which seems most likely).

SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTH: Along and south of the trough axis is where the greatest moisture resides today. The caveat to this area is that there has been on-going rain/thunderstorms just offshore both coasts this morning to well on shore in a few areas. The SW Coast has not had as much, and far SE Florida toward Miami is well on the way to checkout from rehab , whereas the area near Tampa toward Sarasota might take quite a while, if ever to recover. But that might not matter either way. Showers/storms could form to the east of those locations and advect on in either way no matter which way mamma slices the pie.

Around Lake Okeechobee. Winds are light in South Florida today and only a weak sea breeze is expected; the best chance of a any kind of sea breeze/Lake Breeze collision should be somewhere in-between either coast and any lake side. This is likely where the biggest storms today will exist, as well as along and south of the trough axis.

NW FLORIDA: Completely different ball of wax, in their own synoptic scale world today. Moisture continues in this area that is quite unstable. Any storm in this area, and there could be 2 or 3, would have the greatest likely hood of being more powerful.

BLOG GUESS FOR TODAY: This images shows precipitable water values at this time noted by the number (in inches) and dark green being most likely to produce rainfall if other parameters are also present.

The most obvious area for better rain chances is somewhere within the yellow bounds if we ignore any outside factors that would negate rainfall. Some stronger storms around the Lake, but most definitely not all inclusive. There is, in my mind, also another area around coastal Palm Beach County as well as far SW Florida later this afternoon as outflows from the east meet the west coast sea breeze toward Naples/Cork Screw/Etc... Additionally, outflows could affect the Northern Keys toward Key Largo ..whether they would generate further thunderstorms or just cooling breezes is Indeterminable. Also, somewhere in the Florida Panhandle could fall prey to some lightning and stronger wind gusts today .

Note the dashed around in East Central Florida. This area could produce some rain mainly only if a wind surge moves in around noon time. Maybe even a short -lived thunderstorm. For Brevard, the better chance of said thunderstorm will be closer to Indian River County...

SUNDAY: Looks a bit like a similar scenario; however, it appears the trough axis will begin to wash out, which in essence omits a focal point. After today's activity, a lot could change in regard to how moisture will have been redistributed by Sunday, as well as if the deeper, synoptic scale moisture will almost altogether be gone by noon time tomorrow in South Florida. It currently appears that there could be a brief coastal shower from Volusia toward Central Brevard sometime over night or in the early morning...with the main activity tomorrow to be focused more on the West Side of the state as the East Coast sea breeze becomes the more driving factor to initiate showers and eventually thunderstorms during the mid-late afternoon from near Tampa Bay and South..inland toward Lake Okeechobee.

JULY 4th -THURSDAY: Some variation of Sunday's pattern will continue, with moisture increasing along the East Coast from near Daytona Beach and South. This would mean possible early day coastal showers working toward the west with time and manifesting as thunderstorms west of the spine of the state as they approach the west coast sea breeze, that is, if it is able to manifest on that side. If so, it might stay very close to the coast. There could also be a variation to this very common theme. Especially by Shuttle Launch time. The launch 'could' still be in jeopardy. If only for an hour or two delay.