Are Pakistan, Iran and China prepared for trilateral nexus?

The idea that China, Pakistan and Iran should develop a trilateral nexus seems to be gaining momentum. It is evident from the emerging consensus among the three countries and their civil societies.

The willingness behind this initiative is surely moving but that does not suffice amid the complex dynamics of the politics of the region. The question remains to be answered: Are Beijing, Islamabad and Tehran prepared enough to set the ball rolling on establishing this regional trident?

Setting the stage

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has time and again expressed his interest in joining the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), especially in his meeting with former Pakistani prime minister Nawaz Sharif on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly session in New York. Iran’s ambassador to Pakistan, Mehdi Honardoost, has voicing the same wish at various events. Recently he said Iran had much to offer in the energy market and transit trade for facilitating the Pakistan-China-Iran nexus.

The Pakistani government, for its part, wants Tehran to facilitate the cooperation on regional connectivity while minimizing the chances of competing with the Indo-Iranian Chabahar Port project.

On Tuesday, Pakistan’s minister for interior/planning, reforms and development, Ahsan Iqbal, suggested the three countries create a community of shared prosperity. He stressed the need to architect a trilateral economic block but warned of the looming dangers of sharpening regional rivalries.

China, which has been earnestly pursuing the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), has often sought to enhance ties with Iran under the flagship CPEC project. In an interview with the Islamic Republic New Agency (IRNA), the former ambassador to Pakistan, Sun Weidong, said that if Iran joined the CPEC, it would be a “win-win situation” for Tehran and Beijing.

Competing visions limit options

So far as creating a Pakistan-China-Iran trilateral nexus is concerned, competing visions on regional connectivity play an important role. Mainly with the help of India, Iran and the Central Asian republics, Russia wants to build an International North-South Transport Corridor that runs parallel to the BRI and might as well be divergent to it. The Asia-Africa Growth Corridor and Indo-Pacific Initiative also do not seem to be complementing the BRI. So, consequently, these projects call into question the success of the trilateral equation.

Here the onus is on China, which has presented geo-economics as the key to development and prosperity under the pretext of an “Asia Dream.” If implemented fully, the BRI would become a harbinger of China’s sustained political and economic clout in Asia. Given that, is China ready to share a “piece of the cake” with Russia and India by helping them to build the above-mentioned corridors? Or is it trying to bring Russia and Iran into a close embrace so as to reduce eventual competition? So far, it is a matter of conjecture as to what path Beijing is going to take in this regard.

Having said that, in the realm of trilateral cooperation, India is the elephant in the room. It is essential for the three countries to adopt a forward-looking approach, and there is no love lost between Beijing and New Delhi across the Doklam border. Pakistani-Indian relations are witnessing an all-time low, while Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindutva mainstreaming in domestic politics and America’s propelling of New Delhi’s unjustified role in Afghanistan darken the prospects of Indo-Pakistani rapprochement.

As of now, the architecture of the nexus is in its preliminary stage and to materialize its vision, there must be a long-term plan for financial integration and the nature of coordination

It all becomes a metaphor of a “slippery slope” for the trident when growing fondness between Iran and India is factored in. Here again, the nexus depends on Tehran’s adroitness of balancing between Islamabad and New Delhi, especially when Pakistan tilts a little bit toward Saudi Arabia.

However, Pakistan, so far, has tried to keep a balance between the two arch-rivals in the Middle East. The present chief of Pakistani army staff, General Qamar Bajwa, made a historic visit to Iran and stated that his country was determined to expand its ties with Tehran in all spheres. Iran reciprocated the general’s goodwill by inviting Mir Hasil Khan Bizenjo, Pakistan’s minister for ports and maritime affairs and chairman of Gwadar Port, to the inauguration of Chabahar Port.

The one that delivers, wins

The slump in the global economy and a negative approach toward globalization has whetted the economic appetite for the rising Asian states. Partly, this also accounts for the presence of too many initiatives of regional connectivity. Asia is in dire need of development, and these three countries must realize that only those who will deliver to the good of the people can win.

A Pakistan-China-Iran nexus would help development for as many as 3 billion people in the region. To this end, the three countries have to employ three formidable forces: economic diplomacy, regionalism, and multilateralism. As of now, the architecture of the nexus is in its preliminary stage and to materialize its vision, there must be a long-term plan for financial integration and the nature of coordination.

Linked with this is the issue of “sisterhood” of Gwadar and Chabahar ports. At the time of Chabahar’s inauguration, a Memorandum of Understanding of Sister Ports was signed between Pakistan and Iran. But again, the nature of sisterhood in this MoU reflects nothing but ambiguity.

It is time to shift from a defensive to a proactive approach. There are too many initiatives for regional connectivity, accelerating geopolitical rivalries, but only the one that delivers will succeed. The key to success lies in developing consensus among the regional players through multilateralism and economic and cultural diplomacy.

Published by Ghazanfar Ali Garewal

Ghazanfar Ali Garewal is a lecturer in the international relations department of the National University of Modern Languages in Islamabad and coordinator of the department. He holds an MS degree in international cooperation from Yonsei University, Seoul, an MSc in international relations from Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad, and an MA in English from NUML.
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Are Pakistan, Iran and China coagulation into a sub Axis? Sounds plausible. China is an expanding Power with global ambitions. Pakistan is already it concubine. Iran is an enemy of China’s enemy, the US. India chose to be a non entity in 1949, by Constitution.

Future of world politics is multilateralism. Single unit cannot handle the world’s affairs. Future of Asia revolve round the china and Russia. CPEC is going to be a game changer but it may also increase the chances of colonialism for pakistan.

How can competing infrastructure initiatives be other than complementary? Be it initiated by Russia, China or India, it will be positive for all proponents. Moreover, when we talk of regional politics or geopolitical rivalries, we cannot keep the US out of the equation. In this case, it is the common enemy and the main motivation for all to work and set aside differences for a common good.

Another Wishful thinking Pakistani scholar. One need only look at the parallel alignment and financial terms for CPEC to be clear that Pakistan has been duped and the more financially viable INSTC enterprise in Iran would run parallel to it.

The Pakistani elite are content with begging and they have mastered the art of it. Their masters are the USA, Gulf countries and now China. So the services of Pakistan are available to the highest bidder. Pakistan should have some integrity and strive to stand on it own feet by having a strong economy. For this it needs strong leadership, honest citizens and a clear vision and all these it lacks. So enjoy pimping yourself to the highest bidders.

Just keep india out of it and it will work out. india is nothing but a pawn of usa it has sold its peoples future to western intrests.. so they can have no intrest in development of East. All they can do is create trouble for the region.

poor hindu ever disillusioned……if even its the odd man out its hinduslum land india, a non muslim slave of west not trusted by any ation including Iran and Pakistan, polotics aside…..keep dreaming and dont smoke to much cow dung

China is wisely spending its wealth gained to help other interested countries to develop their inherent natural resources or infrastructure projects but hopefully not to militarized the countries involved. The USA is lagging behind

When Pakistan says goodbye to the exportation of terrorism and comes out of security state and its foreign policy is peace centric with her neighbors, then this article can be articulated in the envisioned direction. Otherwise it will further be pushed to internal implosion and the CPEC will remain just a GT-Road and will only be utilized by China in her fullest favour.