ISLAMABAD — Financial difficulties aside, Pakistan is modernizing its air power mainly through investing in the critical JF-17 Thunder program. But the Chengdu J-10B/FC-20 order is less certain.

With a funding crunch, the Pakistan Air Force “will concentrate most resources on JF-17 to ensure its success and further development,” said Usman Shabbir, with the Pakistan Military Consortium think tank.

Last year, the Air Force admitted modernization efforts under the Armed Forces Development Plan 2025 had gone unfunded since 2007. However, Pakistan secured a Chinese loan to keep JF-17 production on track. No details, including the amount of the loan, have been made public.

Production of the second block of 50 began in December. With 50 jets in service, Pakistan’s requirement is for up to 250 planes to replace its Mirage and F-7 aircraft. It already has replaced the A-5C Fantan strike fighter with two squadrons.

The Block II JF-17 has improved avionics, weapons load and carriage capability, a data link and an electronic warfare suite, plus an in-flight refueling capability, but officials are reluctant to give specific details.

A spokesperson for the Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC), which jointly manufactures the JF-17 with China’s Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group, would say only that the avionics suite is a “mixed package” and has been contracted.

Shabbir said he believes the NRIET KLJ-7 X-band radar will have been retained for the Block I/II aircraft, and standoff weapons such as the Ra’ad air-launched cruise missile, H-2/H-4 glide bomb and Mectron MAR-1 anti-radiation missile might also have been integrated onto the Block II jets.

Multiple ejector racks will make up for a lack of additional weapon store stations, and a dedicated designator pod station could be added later underneath the plane’s port intake.

No JF-17 has been seen carrying a designator pod, but a Chinese type will likely enter service, even though Shabbir said the Pakistan Air Force’s Air Weapons Complex “has also developed one in collaboration with a European firm.”

Which firm is unknown, but PAC collaborates with European companies such as Selex ES and Sagem.

Shabbir said the addition of a separate forward-looking infrared (FLIR) sensor is unlikely, and those fitted to Mirage 5s would not be “recycled” because “the FLIR-equipped [retrofit of strike element-III] Mirages will soldier on for many years as they are specialist night attack aircraft.”

Further avionics improvements will probably wait until Block III production begins in 2016, with an active electronically scanned array radar variant of the KLJ-7, he said. But “so far, Block III is just conceptual, and even though PAF/PAC and CATIC [China National Aero-Technology Import & Export Corp.] agree on broad terms what capabilities Block III should offer, the design is not finalized,” Shabbir said.

The importance to Pakistan aside, for CATIC, the FC-1/JF-17 is an export program that has yet to secure an order and become profitable. Production lines in both countries are underutilized. PAC produces 18 aircraft a year but has a capacity of 25.

This has caused some friction, as the Pakistan Air Force wants to meet its requirements before concentrating on exports.

Douglas Barrie, a senior fellow for Military Aerospace at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said he believes China could influence exports as “a Chinese purchase of the aircraft, even if only in token numbers, would also bolster its credentials.

“There’s no obvious reason why the Chengdu JF-17 should not be a credible contender in a number of markets where a more capable combat aircraft is either unaffordable or unavailable, particularly in some African and possibly Middle Eastern states looking to replace legacy types with a low-cost platform,” he said.

Barrie highlighted the “reasonable selection of air-to-air and air-to-surface weapons,” and said the air-to-air SD-10/PL-12, a beyond-visual-range missile, is a “credible weapon.”

J-10 Purchases

A Pakistan Air Force purchase of the FC-20/J-10B, while attention focuses on JF-17 exports, would therefore be favorable, Shabbir said. However, the status of the deal is uncertain and there is thought to be a discussion within the Pakistan Air Force as to its fate.

The country’s Defence Ministry would not comment on the matter, and the Air Force has not responded to queries.

Shabbir said the order “was always planned to be signed in the 2014-2015 time frame.” A reported US $1.4 billion agreement was negotiated for 36 FC-20/J-10B aircraft in 2009, with reports at the time claiming they would enter service around 2014 or 2015, but that date has slipped.

However, “if money becomes an issue and if the [Indian Air Force] does not go for the Rafale [fighter jet], it is possible that the [Pakistan Air Force] might drop the FC-20 plan and invest even more resources into the JF-17 project, along with buying more used F-16s and bringing them to Block 52 standard,” he said.

Former Air Force pilot and analyst Kaiser Tufail said, “Purely from a political standpoint, it would be wise for the [Air Force] to diversify its source of advanced fighters of the F-16C class. China is an obvious reliable source and the FC-20 is a possible candidate, though my personal assessment is that overall, it is not as advanced as the F-16C [Block 50/52].”

Yet he still believes ordering the FC-20/J-10B could benefit the JF-17.

“I think that later JF-17 Blocks III and IV could possibly have avionics systems commonality with the FC-20, as these would have been tried and tested systems on the latter aircraft,” he said.

Though Tufail admitted the possibility of speculating too far, “since the specifications and airframe configuration of the later JF-17 Block III and IV is not at all clear, it would be futile to speculate if hardware other than avionics systems could find commonality with the FC-20,” he said.

Similarly, Tufail said he’s uncertain whether a Chinese stealth jet would be a better option than the FC-20/J-10B, as “the full performance capabilities of the Chinese stealth aircraft are not known as yet and on this account, it may be premature to draw up a wish list.”

Current economic conditions “preclude any possibility of acquiring new weapon systems in the next two to three years, at least,” said retired Pakistani Air Commodore Kaiser Tufail, a veteran fighter and test pilot who is now an independent military analyst in Lahore.

Under IMF loan terms, the government faces harsh conditions on raising revenue and controlling spending, including on military equipment.

A Chinese defense delegation visited Pakistan the last week of September to discuss the status of stalled defense deals. Whether this included the J-10 order is unclear.

The J-10B Super-10 is an advanced variant of the J-10A, first fielded in late 2003 with China’s Air Force. The new Super-10 will reportedly be powered by the Chinese-designed WS-10A turbofan engine, which will replace the J-10A’s Russian Saturn AL-31FN. Built by Chengdu Aircraft Industries, the jet is based on Israel’s Lavi indigenous fighter program by Israel Aerospace Industries that was canceled in 1987.

Even if a friendly Arab Gulf state provided financing, Tufail said more used Lockheed Martin F-16Cs from US stocks are preferable, “rather than trying out a new weapon system that is an unknown commodity in the realm of modern-day combat.”

Tufail questioned the wisdom of buying one squadron of J-10s.

To be cost effective “at least three to four squadrons would justify the additional wherewithal and maintenance facilities that would be needed,” he said.

Over-reliance on US high-technology equipment like fighters worries Pakistani officials, and while Tufail said diversification “be explored fully, with China and Russia as suitable sources,” in the case of the fighter, the government may not have another option.

Should a deal occur, however, Tufail foresees no problems with directly or indirectly acquiring Russian equipment such as the J-10’s AL-31FN engine.

The J-10B was first revealed to the public in early 2009. Images appearing on Chinese-language military websites indicate the J-10B had a new nose configuration with an infrared search and tracking system and a “new Diverterless Supersonic Intake configured engine air intake,” also seen on the Chengdu FC-1 Xiaolong (Fierce Dragon), which is co-produced in Pakistan as the JF-17 Thunder, said Richard Fisher, a senior fellow of Asian military affairs at the International Assessment and Strategy Center.

At least one prototype J-10B has featured the indigenous Shenyang-Liming WS-10A turbofan engine, but it remains to be seen whether all production J-10Bs will feature the WS-10A or the Russian Saturn AL-31F turbofan,” Fisher said.

“I think the JF-17 arrangement has been a workable one so far, and future weapon systems with core Russian and Chinese components can be acquired by the Pakistan Air Force on a similar basis, without difficulty,” Tufail said.

Russia allowed China to supply Pakistan the JF-17s Klimov RD-93 engine despite Indian opposition, and prospects have since improved.

“The thawing of Pak-Russo relations over the past few years is certainly a welcome development, and should help override Indian objections to any military cooperation between Pakistan and Russia,” Tufail said.

Technological advances may also scrap the J-10 deal.

Tufail believes the air force may be turning to the stealthy Chengdu J-20 though this is not presently “anything beyond a mere statement of intent.”

“It is a futuristic aircraft, not yet fully operational, and its capabilities are hardly known, so reading too much into this may be rather premature,” Tufail said.

The J-10B would offer Pakistan some advanced fourth generation capabilities.

“The canted nose cone immediately led to speculation that the J-10B also featured a new fixed antennae phased array radar and this was confirmed in 2011,” Fisher said. “There remains some speculation that this radar may be a ‘passive’ versus an ‘active’ electronically scanned array [AESA], but the key point is that the J-10B is clearly a 4+ generation fighter that also included upgraded cockpit systems and electronic warfare systems.”

But if Pakistan chooses not to become the first customer for an export configured J-10B, at $50-60 million per aircraft it will become attractive to countries like Venezuela, Argentina, Peru, Malaysia and Indonesia, who are looking for an affordable multi-role fighter, Fisher said.

ThAnKs To Allah,WhO cReAtEd Me aS mUsLiM.
I tAkE oNe @ A tImE, UnLeSs ThEy AlL aTtAcK @ oNcE!!!!!

^^ Untested technology? What a bullshit argument. Let's just put things into perspective here. This country has a crappy economy to afford decent fighters. This country relies on foreign handouts to survive and keep its economy rolling. It can't provide electricity and gas to its people. Outdated F-16s doled out as military aid and JF-17s gifted from Chinese loans is all that this country can afford. That's the bitter truth. Nothing more nothing less.

Tufail said more used Lockheed Martin F-16Cs from US stocks are preferable.

Sums it up quite nicely. In other words, more freebie military aid is welcome.

Just tax 2.5% of all property transactions in Pakistan and the government will have plenty of money.
But then again the money will not be for the government it will be for the select few who are totally corrupt and useless yet lead Pakistan!

In the context of Pakistani geography and our defensive requirement, F-16C/D are an extremely potent platform.

Air Commodore Tufail is a retired analyst, he is just giving his analysis over here and it does make sense to be honest. He has summed it up perfectly that although the Chinese are very reliable and that Pakistan should most definitely be pro-diversification vis-a-via China and Russia.

He basically advocates that PAF at this very moment doesn't have many options, because to be honest it is still too early for J-20 (plus the whole training and maintenance facilities etc will cost a lot) and he questions the J-10s due the rapid technological advancements taking place in air warfare. Think about it, developed countries are moving towards stealthy UAVs, remote control F-16s.....thus J-10 might be a tad bit too late for us.

J-10s makes complete sense in regards to the Chinese because in my opinion it is their "Jf-17" , replacing the PLAAF's obsolete aircrafts; meanwhile we have the thunders replacing ours. Therefore there is no wisdom in buying J-10s whether it's a squadron or in numbers.

But hopefully in long term I am hoping PAF will go for J-20 and I hope by that time the Chinese start production of a better and much reliable engine.

The J-10 is a better aircraft than the JF-17, it has better spec radar and other electronic suites, can go further, faster, carrying more weapons. The F-16 Pakistan can aqquire won't have the same abilities, even after the MLU's etc. These are also sanction prone and likely to be fitted with kill swiches and come with conditions and a rare fragile supply of spare parts. Why take that risk for what will be effectively a front line fighter? J-10 is anticipated as 4g+, it will become a mainstay of the PLAAF and will also see upgrades, it's a platform at the start of it's life, rather than one well towards the end of its. It's a better option to go for IMO.

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The J-10 is a better aircraft than the JF-17, it has better spec radar and other electronic suites, can go further, faster, carrying more weapons. The F-16 Pakistan can aqquire won't have the same abilities, even after the MLU's etc. These are also sanction prone and likely to be fitted with kill swiches and come with conditions and a rare fragile supply of spare parts. Why take that risk for what will be effectively a front line fighter? J-10 is anticipated as 4g+, it will become a mainstay of the PLAAF and will also see upgrades, it's a platform at the start of it's life, rather than one well towards the end of its. It's a better option to go for IMO.

What's good for Pakistan and what Pakistani leaders do are usually two divergent paths. Your analysis is pretty spot on.

@Plat: You are right J-10 is a better aircraft than JF-17 no denying that, but as per Pakistan's current need and situation it really is not our interest (until or unless we buy a few squadrons urgently to replace the Mirages), but we know PAF is looking for a long term investment and J-20 is the right direction to go.

But we must realize that we are already setting things in motion for a JF-17 block 3, which is quite potent to be honest; meanwhile the F-16's will be used for purely defensive purpose; therefore they are still a very able and lethal platform.

Furthermore in my opinion we need to invest more in SAMs, AWACS and such force multipliers, as they will properly improve our defensive capabilities.

@Plat: You are right J-10 is a better aircraft than JF-17 no denying that, but as per Pakistan's current need and situation it really is not our interest (until or unless we buy a few squadrons urgently to replace the Mirages), but we know PAF is looking for a long term investment and J-20 is the right direction to go.

But we must realize that we are already setting things in motion for a JF-17 block 3, which is quite potent to be honest; meanwhile the F-16's will be used for purely defensive purpose; therefore they are still a very able and lethal platform.

Furthermore in my opinion we need to invest more in SAMs, AWACS and such force multipliers, as they will properly improve our defensive capabilities.

Iterative improvement of the JF-17 is great, it helps us make the mos tof the primary platform out airforce will be using and will help keep our airforce upto date, but the updates will be limited to weapons systems, not the main airframe (to some extent) and the engine. Even the size of the nose cone will limit the kind of radar you can put in. These limitations are not in place with the J-10 (to such an extent).

I agree Radars and SAM's are essential, but there is nothing quite as effective as a mobile missile platform that detect and target you, before you can detect and target it.

Follow PDF on twitter @Official_PDF

-=-=-=-=Faith, Unity, Discipline-=-=-=-=

Kashmir is the jugular Vein of Pakistan and no nationor country would tolerate its jugular vein remainsunder the sword of the enemy. -Muhammed Ali Jinnah

-=-=-=-=FREE KASHMIR-=-=-=-=

These eye's do not wander in lust, for myqueen of hearts has graced them with love.

Actually who is our primary foe and what is the probability of even a small-scale conflict.......

In my opinion any conflict with India should be ruled out, completely. The simple fact is they are in no position to do jack, even when our airforce was quite weak and they threatened us during that whole Mumbai saga they themselves backed-off. They can fantasize about billions of things but the end of Pakistan will only come by the hands of Pakistanis, not the Indians, not the Zionists and not the Yanks.

Due to the close proximity and the geographic nature of Sub-continent there is not much any country can do against each other except by launching proxy wars. Proxy wars is the future which Pakistan should realize; age of conventional warfare is pretty much over.

The Indians are naked to us and we are naked to them...that's the fact, a million ECM's won't change this.

Secondly...the issue of Yanks, I am of firm opinion that even with J-20s or any other potent platform Pakistan will never launch a missile against them. Fact of the matter is either way the Yanks will come out on top in any conflict.

So this leaves us with Afghanistan, Iran and China (an Ally).

_____________________________________________________

The above is my basis of thinking brother Plat, therefore I am of the opinion that J-10 ain't good for PAF...we are still playing catch up; instead we should be looking towards the future (J-20, stealth drones, pilotless technology etc.). J-10 would be kind of a step back to be honest, waste of resources in terms of any real futuristic progress. I am not disputing your fact that on one-on-one basis the J-10 is a superior platform to Jf-17.

Our most immediate and lethal threat are the TTP!gs. To make them go oink...we have enough equipment and arsenal...and I hope we use it properly against them in the future. One or two odd air-strikes don't count. And yeah, drones....can't put enough emphasis on those.

those fitted to Mirage 5s would not be “recycled” because “the FLIR-equipped [retrofit of strike element-III] Mirages will soldier on for many years as they are specialist night attack aircraft.”

Mirages are not going anywhere, we do not have a replacement for them.

JF-17, J-10, or even the F-16 do not have the capability as compared to what the Mirages can do; it's like saying sell the B-777 to induct the A-320.

On the other hand, F-16's are the best interceptors and strategic defense jets in our arsenal; there is no comparison in our inventory.

Edited by Felicius, 14 February 2014 - 10:09 AM.

Hakim Bey: Don't just survive while waiting for someone's revolution to clear your head
Napoleon Bonaparte: The world suffers a lot, not because of the violence of bad people, but because of the silence of good people!

How many J-31's will we need to replace the night strike Mirages, may be 100? So say we do go for J-10's, how many will we need to replace another 100 Mirages?

When we speak of retiring over a 100 specialty jets, obviously we have to replace them with current/identical 4.5/5th Generation jets, what realistic options do we have? PAF has their eyes and heart set on the Eurofighter, 3-4 squadrons. Another option is the J-16/17 (upgraded version of the J-11), in large numbers.

Hakim Bey: Don't just survive while waiting for someone's revolution to clear your head
Napoleon Bonaparte: The world suffers a lot, not because of the violence of bad people, but because of the silence of good people!

To state that PAF will never operate a twin engine means that PAF will perpetually have its head in its proverbial ass. When u have limited options for advanced fighters you will go for the best available. If you look at all of the worlds best fighters you will find 3 l maybe 4 single engined aircraft.

JSF
F-16E/F
Gripen
+/- J-10B

The others F-22, Typhoon, Rafale, Su-35,F-15, F-18 and future PAK-FA, J-20, and J-31 are all twin engined. Of those available to Pakistan only J-10 is a single engine. So if Pakistan wants to to stay with J-10 which is essentially redundant in PAF with future developments to JF-17 on the horizon and the presence of F-16 C/D, then the world will pass it by even more than it has. Otherwise it will go for a twin engined 5th Gen Fighter (likely J-31), despite any increase in operational cost, because it has no choice if it wants to compete...unless China is interested in starting a 5th Gen version of the JF-17 type project.

Our Mirages and F-16 for example. With JF-17s we will continually upgrade. With J-10, we have have a platform that will become another A-5 platform for the PAF in 10 years.

Hakim Bey: Don't just survive while waiting for someone's revolution to clear your head
Napoleon Bonaparte: The world suffers a lot, not because of the violence of bad people, but because of the silence of good people!

Hakim Bey: Don't just survive while waiting for someone's revolution to clear your head
Napoleon Bonaparte: The world suffers a lot, not because of the violence of bad people, but because of the silence of good people!

J-10B represents the pinnacle of Gen-4++ combat aircraft of China. Pakistan Air Force would be wise to procure J-10Bs, as it allows it not only AESA capability, but also the ability to bulk out Pakistan Air Force's combat aircraft fleet along with JF-17s (250) + J-10B (150) + F-16 (70). Because you've gotta be a bit more objective than just saying that Pakistan Air Force should be going for stealth fighters. And speaking which, how many J-31s do you suppose would Pakistan Air Force be able to afford. Not more than 30-40 and if that is the case, than it would be prudent to bulk out you fighter fleet with 200 and over Gen-4++ fighters like the J-10B and F-16!

........ when the first drop of a Munafiq's blood drops in the Kaa'bah ........

........ the Black Flags Army shall rise from Khurasan and commence its earth rumbling march toward Damishque. Any force that tries to come in its path, shall be destroyed with ruthless destruction. Awaiting, upon reaching Damishque, the safron and beads of pearls and the Black Turban that shall lead the Salah of Fajr .........

........ the stones and trees of Lud shall cry out to the Black Flags and tell them of the Munafiqs, Yahuds and Kuffar that are hiding behind them, to come and kill them. That day shall be the day of reckoning, the day of justice, the day when no power shall hold and unfair advantage. The battle shall be fought and won by way of faith ........

And speaking which, how many J-31s do you suppose would Pakistan Air Force be able to afford. Not more than 30-40 and if that is the case, than it would be prudent to bulk out you fighter fleet with 200 and over Gen-4++ fighters like the J-10B and F-16!

That was my exact question when people were suggesting we replace some 150 Mirages and 180 F-7s with JF-17s, we do not have the finance to replace the Mirages with those exact numbers of equivalent jet types. As for the J-10s option, probably it's the finance reason that is why we are going for the platform we know, the F-16s.

A better or equivalent replacement for Mirages is more necessary for us than just to induct the J-10. It is imperative we find a suitable platform to replace the Mirages by 2019.

I have always loved the J-10s, even more than the JF-17s, but they are not the right choice to replace the Mirages with.

Hakim Bey: Don't just survive while waiting for someone's revolution to clear your head
Napoleon Bonaparte: The world suffers a lot, not because of the violence of bad people, but because of the silence of good people!

I agree with Dizasta, we should induct around 120 - 160 J10Bs & they are far superior to our F7s & Mirages plus we don’t have to replace F7 & Mirages on 1 to 1 bases with J10Bs thanks to J10B (4++ gen).

Further, what you suggests Felicius of inducting more F16, see we all know that F16 are having strips attached plus we have almost same alternate available in Jf17 but yes we can induct around 30 more to reach 100 figures which will nicely complement JF17 & J10Bs.

Pakistan should not commit suicide by inducting J10b, they are not any better than Rafale, Gripen Es Eurofighters, F15s and the F16 Block 52s, unless J10bs or J10P version gets massively upgraded and stealthy.

There is no future of J10s which now cost more than $ 60 million a unit, and maintenance, setup, facility price is not included, its too expensive for Pakistan and it neither is on PAF specific needs. Pakistan can not afford it yet now .

On the other hand, China should have bought the Jf17s, no point showing interest in JF17s block III and now asking Pak to buy the J10b too.

If Pakistan needs then why not buy other western platform other than the J10B with the same cost.

J10s have limited scope and does not offer ToT to Pakistan.

Best is to buy more F16s get them MLUs, induct new upgraded JF17s and if possible buy few UAE or Qatari Mirages 2000-9. A great combination for now.

The Real Heroes are the People of Pakistan - Long Live Pakistani People.

What made you to the conclusion that J10Bs are not better then Rafale, Gripen, Eurofighters, F15 & F16 BLK 52s.......would you please elaborate........

My dear by no means J10Bs are inferior to the above named fighters in fact they are on par if not better plus do you think that PAF or Pakistan would ever get their hands on these fighters (except F16s) rest TOT. We all know what cost we paid to have those remaining F16s....

I agree with Dizasta, we should induct around 120 - 160 J10Bs & they are far superior to our F7s & Mirages plus we don’t have to replace F7 & Mirages on 1 to 1 bases with J10Bs thanks to J10B (4++ gen).

Further, what you suggests Felicius of inducting more F16, see we all know that F16 are having strips attached plus we have almost same alternate available in Jf17 but yes we can induct around 30 more to reach 100 figures which will nicely complement JF17 & J10Bs.

J-10s were great replacement for F-16s if we didn't have the imperative task to replace the Mirages; that is our priority.

Mirages are a specialty jet, has to be replaced by a platform that can do the job better - 2 machs +, deep strike, anti-ship, etc.

Overheads increase having 2 platforms of similar types. Similar to PIA having B-737 and A-320, does not make any sense. We have been managing and operating the F-16s now for decades. They have proven to be the best defence strategic jets. Yes they do come with conditions, conditions applicable only with offence.

There is absolutely no conditions what they do within Pakistan's air space. Being the better interceptor, F-16s would be the ideal platform.

JF-17s are replacing our 180 odd F-7s, they are not the ideal replacement for Mirages.

Hakim Bey: Don't just survive while waiting for someone's revolution to clear your head
Napoleon Bonaparte: The world suffers a lot, not because of the violence of bad people, but because of the silence of good people!

I dont think J-10 fits with Pakistan any more, a lot of developments have occurred. The AFDP 2015 program specifically stated PAF will buy a single engined plane other than the JF-17 to replace F-16s as the front line jet. But the AFDP 2015 has been abandoned and a new plan is in the works. J-10s are no longer the only option and PAF can opt for a twin engined platform if it prefers, its not a rule.

The JF-17 can do everything a J-10 can do, carry a variety of weapons and combined with AWACs the JF-17s have become more versatile than ever imagined.. The J-10 has greater payload and performance for strike roles and were supposed to take over from the F-16s as they were getting outdated and sourcing was a problem. Times have changed now PAF's F-16 fleet is growing and they are getting upgrades.

As of current, PAF is replacing F-7Ps and Mirages with more F-16s and JF-17s. PAF is actively pursuing used F-16s, more deals will come up after the recent Jordanian acquisition.

The J-10 induction has been delayed for so long now and India's Rafael plans have hit snags so PAF can now afford to skip the J-10. I would recommend and I think PAF planners have the same in mind to wait and see how the J-31 turns out.

JF-17s do not have an AESA radar that J-10Bs do. JF-17s do not have the range or payload capacity which the J-10Bs do. The way I look at it, Pakistan Air Force having (150) J-10Bs, that have AESA, IFR, EWS and DATA-LINK (with ZDK-03 & JF-17)! J-10B will also have aperture system for precision munition deployment. This aircraft will be able to deploy all the weapons which Mirages do today and will have a greater capability for night-ops than Mirages! To top it all off, the J-10Bs will be new build aircraft, to replace a 1960s

As for J-31, well that aircraft is another 7-10 years away from being deployed as fully operational. Even the J-20, which first flew in 2011, has been in prototype phase for the past 3 years, will not reach full operational capability till 2020. Which means that the program since it's first flight, would have taken 10 years in total. As for J-31, which first flew in October 2012. The aircraft has another 10 years to be completed and fully deployed.

Within those 10 years, Pakistan can comfortably build up it's numbers for J-10Bs and JF-17s. By the time they're ready for J-31s, the Pakistan Air Force fighter pilots would've become well versed in AESA tactics. By that time, Pakistan would be ready for the J-31s! Pakistan Air Force essentially requires (150) J-10s, (250) JF-17s, (90) F-16s and (60) J-31s. This is a consolidated fighter fleet of around 550 aircraft, which would be significant enough in comparison to the enemy!

........ when the first drop of a Munafiq's blood drops in the Kaa'bah ........

........ the Black Flags Army shall rise from Khurasan and commence its earth rumbling march toward Damishque. Any force that tries to come in its path, shall be destroyed with ruthless destruction. Awaiting, upon reaching Damishque, the safron and beads of pearls and the Black Turban that shall lead the Salah of Fajr .........

........ the stones and trees of Lud shall cry out to the Black Flags and tell them of the Munafiqs, Yahuds and Kuffar that are hiding behind them, to come and kill them. That day shall be the day of reckoning, the day of justice, the day when no power shall hold and unfair advantage. The battle shall be fought and won by way of faith ........

The JF-17 has block 2-3s on the way. Yes the J-10 is a better aircraft with AESA, more payload and range. But look at it in a different perspective. The decision to buy J-10s was never in comparison to JF-17s it was to offset the unavailability of more F-16s. Its always has been J-10 Vs F-16 MLU.

The JF-17 Block III will likely have AESA alongside an avionics and ECM/EW suite to make it truly 4+ gen. But even with an uprated engine (e.g. RD-93MA), it's still going to be that comparatively short-ranged and lightweight F-7 replacement, albeit an advanced and much more capable one.

Replacing the Mirages is a trickier bet. Ideally, the PAF could get a lot of F-16s (used and new) along with permission to equip those Falcons with its desired set of stand-off missiles - not happening.

Alternatives are scarce. Unless Pakistan manages to wrap up Waziristan + turn around economically + come across a reservoir of cold cash by seizing assets of corrupt politicians + an initial payment by KSA all in one swoop, the Eurofighter Typhoon isn't going to happen, unfortunately.

One alternative may be to develop a new JF-17 variant that does have enough range, payload and speed to effectively replace the Mirages. It'll be tough, but it could be built with the goal of having more hard points, using conformal fuel-tanks, a larger airframe, etc. It's been done before with F-16C/D and Gripen NG, maybe it's possible with JF-17 too? For what it's worth, Block III is still on the drawing board, it may end up being that Mirage replacement fighter.