Thought the Beyer seemed a little lower than I thought the performance warranted. I could be wrong. Only recently started incorporating Beyers (half for the Beyers' opinion and half to know what the public is seeing). Seems to almost be an 'initiation period' for most new horses, where their first Beyer (or two) is a little lower than the performance seemed to warrant, and then they jump up a little more dramatically than their visual improvement seems to show in subsequent starts. Eventually it seems to find it's level.

Was a little surprised that this Beyer wasn't a 115 or so. I understand that the Beyers have to scale to the complete order of finishers, so it may have put the runner up a little too high.

How did you arrive at this? He was clearly faster than older fillies ran in the stakes race.

I crunch the numbers(using pace and trip) race by race during the card assigning a number to each race. At the end of the day I see how things match up against each other but ALWAYS weigh the individual race number more than the "overall" as many things can cause variations race to race.

This particular race was the 1st dirt race of the day and crunching came up with 2 different variants, 1 being about where TF & Beyer has it and the other number lower. Things that happened later in the day(this is pretty much what you asked me but excuse me for not explaining in detail) gave me 95% confidence that the lower number is correct. Don't get me wrong it is still a strong win even at the lower number.

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