Observations focused on the problems of an underdeveloped country, Venezuela, with some serendipity about the world (orchids, techs, science, investments, politics) at large. A famous Venezuelan, Juan Pablo Perez Alfonzo, referred to oil as the devil's excrement. For countries, easy wealth appears indeed to be the sure path to failure. Venezuela might be a clear example of that.

209 Responses to “Too Many Rumors in Caracas, what to look for…”

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JMA said-“It’s going to be very hard to wrestle power from this man. Sometimes, I think violence will be unavoidable.”
JMA- did you hear that Chavez wanted to quit-just resign and
Castro-said NO, you must keep going. (Castro claims this happened
several times…)
Anyway- if CHavez said “I resign. I quit.” -I am one of those who would
wish that Chavez would be tried for crimes against Venezuelan people
and supporting terrorism, robbery, etc. and given death sentence.
Same with Castro- I await this with Castro as well.

JMA said “And, Thugo has taken very good care that things not only remain the same but spiced up with a cult to himself, because that is his electoral base. It’s going to be very hard to wrestle power from this man. Sometimes, I think violence will be unavoidable.”
The only way is to get the military to stand down-and/or support the people of
Venezuela and not obey the Cubans…

“Thus, people have a hard time managing the available information because they are not used to deal with such a psychopathic mind. Indeed, he has the advantage because he is totally geared to manipulate you and everyone else, sycophants and adversaries. That is what he is best at. The trained professional only needs to read his statements or watch his videos to reach that conclusion. Once a majority of people understand this, then it will be game-over for him and his band of co-narcissists/psychopaths (Yes, such people do exist). It is a matter of time, and it’s up to the people how long it will take. The destruction has to stop.”

My Gosh, Doc. You are a real Prince Charming!! You bring beautiful music
to me!! You were meant to be here!! (What kind of breakfast cereal do you eat?-ha.)
You got my vote. I’ll even try to vote twice!!
Seriously-thank you again.

>>>In limited access-societies, there is a nauseating collusion between the ones with political power and those with economic power. They grossly benefit each other, which enhances their power, but only meager crumbles trickle down to the rest of society.<<<

That sounds like the USA with banks too big to fail, TARP, bailouts and whatnots. It also sounds like Europe bailing out Greece as a way to bail out the big banks. I guess the first world is also a "limited access-society." 😉

Probably not at a scale of the countries (3/4 of the planet) for which Dr. North coined the term, but, yes, the first world is surely heading in that direction if comprehensive financial reform is not implemented.

RD Large Print has an article coming out, but not until December. Editors tell me it’s a barnburner, titled, “Rumors: Why people need them.” With your subscription, you should be getting it late next month.

I still don’t get how his supporters don’t question from where all these expenses and luxury come from. I tend to think that is because they don’t formally work, therefore they don’t pay taxes so it doesn’t hurt them.
Even worse of not questioning, is that they alwys find a way to defend this sinverguenza.

The way I see it … adoration is a very strong “fix”. I guess that’s why they call it a cult of personality. For the personality can do absolutely no wrong in the eyes of those who have been targetted, from the get-go. And why? Because the personality knows this group will never question. Those who form part of that group — and in Vzla, they are a large part — have not been trained to think critically. And that, sadly, is no fault of the personality, but of systems in place long before.

Early and sound education to build critical skills is the key. But not for the personality who knows how to tap the innocent and the ignorant for the bulk of his political base. He’s not interested in changing that mind-set. Otherwise, he’d lose his only easy support. That’s why the schools he “invested in” early on, received only a cosmetic paint job of their front. Nothing more than a can or two of paint was expensed. One of these colours was sure to be red for easy identification and perpetuation of the cult.

Great analysis. Entire generations are now lost precisely because these people do not have basic critical skills to understand that they have been played by the High Priest, a.k.a Mr. Egghead. That is why they don’t even bother to make some comparisons between what works and what doesn’t in any given society. Indeed, they are just prey for anyone with a huge appetite for power, nothing else. Problem is, in Venezuela, they comprise more than half of the population. Therefore, even if come October 2012 we have a new government, the danger of Chavez or someone like him returning to power later on is very real because the mob is not trainable. To reverse this problem will take generations even if it is rightly identified and tackled. In the meantime, the risk of the return of populism will remain great because the mob doesn’t understand that solving problems – especially ones as serious as the ones in Venezuela – takes a lot of time and requires much gratification delaying.

another thing .. I don’t think it’s any accident whatesoever that chavistas with their Cículos Boliviarianos, as well as affiliates of Cuban apparatchiks (Martha H*), were making the rounds of (Canadian) universities to give their little pep talks and cull more believers. For universities, especially before the 3rd or 4th year, are another perfect incubation for cults of personality. Critical thinking skills have not yet fully developed or matured. Add to that, the fact that it is an environment where the youth is taking steps into adulthood, away from home base. That can be a little destabilizing. Which is the perfect medium for the cult of personality.

Of course, all this doesn’t explain why some of the woolly profs in graduate social sciences, got sucked into the Dream with Chavez Sweepstakes. Or the international media, as it did, earlier on.

As for Amy Chua (World on Fire), well, she was just out to turn a fast buck, back then — as she still is, now using a new theme — based on the iterations of her young students and her own hang-ups about growing up Chinese in the Philippines.

“They believe he is one of them” because, early on, he sought to pretend he identified fully with them. Ergo his myth of the I-came-from-such-a-poor-background, I-feel-your-pain, write-me-your-troubles-on-papelitos-and-I-will-personally-reply, etc. Added to that are the televised appearances, no, chained broadcasting, for hours at a time, and all of a sudden, you not only have a visual cult of personality, say through a photo on the wall, but a full audio-visual experience, woven into every fiber of the ranchito, or other living accommodation.

Because he is the High Priest of the cult. It is not rational. The important thing to understand is that they believe he is one of them. He made it, and since he loves them, he will deliver happiness and plentifulness … anytime between now and his death, planned by him to occur in a very distant future. Too bad there are limits on what a High Priest can really do …

And, since he is the High Priest of the cult, he is perceived to have every right to have, enjoy, and display any riches he wants. The mob does not see anything wrong with that. Heck! they don’t even know how much a bullet-proof Bentley Continental costs. So, on one side you have a psychopath who has honed his skills for manipulating people during the last 13 years, and huge mob devoid of any critical thinking skills: the perfect storm.

But it is very important to not lose sight of the fact that the lack of critical thinking skills has existed a very long time before Chávez came to power. And the most affected, imo, have been women. But the majority don’t see that.

Chavez and Fidel have been more clever than most at total manipulation — not just at a national level, but at an international one, too.

Even in countries where more critical thinking skills exist, there were many – especially in the media – that succumbed to the pie-in-the-sky deliverance, reinforced by several of Chavez’ around-the-world-in-an-A330, or whatever it was.

All this is great and it’s obvious that a profound reform of the educational system is necessary.
Except there has to be something else aside the lack of education. I have colleagues, educated and hardworking people (that I used to think were quite smart back in the days) that still believe in this creep! That I don’t get.

Wow!! If I wasn’t married-I would ask either or both of
you to adopt me. Thank you for a wonderful discussion
describing Chavez and Venezuela. It is all true and
I just want to say -This is not a government.
It is mesmerizing, brainwashing..

Oh yes, that is totally true. In fact, I like to think of Chavez as the consequence and not the cause of the problem. That someone like him would appear on the scene was only a matter of time. It all probably began sometime during CAP’s first term, when the groundwork of what Douglass North called Limited-access societies was being outlined.

In limited access-societies, there is a nauseating collusion between the ones with political power and those with economic power. They grossly benefit each other, which enhances their power, but only meager crumbles trickle down to the rest of society.

This is what happened in Venezuela during a span of about 20-25 years – a generation! Note that since 1980 Venezuela has lived in a perennial economic crisis, with non-stop currency devaluations. Only politicians and powerful businessmen have been able, not only to weather these crises but to get even richer.

The rest of society has been struggling with less and less all these years. Is it a surprise that education suffered? By the time HC came to power, most of our population was already poor and uneducated – they could not distinguish north from south. And, Thugo has taken very good care that things not only remain the same but spiced up with a cult to himself, because that is his electoral base. It’s going to be very hard to wrestle power from this man. Sometimes, I think violence will be unavoidable.

Except there has to be something else aside the lack of education. I have colleagues, educated and hardworking people (that I used to think were quite smart back in the days) that still believe in this creep! That I don’t get.

Carolina: It’s been a few years since I came across idealists at several Toronto-based events, put on by chavistas and the like-minded. (Intriguing, if not a little scary sometimes.) It’s been many more years since I roomed, off-campus, for a short while with two women, one of whom was a card-carrying communist, her friend going along for the ride. I was invited once to one of the cell meetings, held at night, on another campus. All hush-hush. Well, let me to tell you, I have never felt more like a fish out of water. So bizarre! My memory is of the “leader” a young twenty-something male, trying to be very officious — until another (female) member waltzed in, wearing a winter coat from Afghanistan, she said. (I was mesmerized by its brilliant blue colour, and could not have easily located Afghanistan on a map.) I remember that in the nonsense, there was some discussion about a professor and how he was evil? misguided? (take your pick). Let me tell you, I was glad to get out of there and breathe fresh air. It was ridiculous.

From my observations, I can only say this. Some people, disaffected with their lives, and/or their lack of perceived power within a conventional system, and/or their lack of support from say, a mentor or family, will grasp at a romantic notion that gives them the illusion of being in control and of doing good for others not as fortunate. It is a delusion, when a superiority complex isn’t kicking in, moreover, when the notion is all talk and next to no action.

This romantic notion is common among younger university students. Usually, by the end of their university days, most students seek employment and become assimilated into the mainstream. Most of them drop their earlier illusions/frustrations for more tangible issues, reflective of a more realistic environment. Others stay on, go to graduate school, or begin training in their career of choice.

Those students who gravitate towards post-grad studies in the humanities or social sciences, where there is a scarcity of concrete guidelines and tangible goals, are most likely to maintain the illusions from their earlier days. They have no external references that demand that they drop these illusions. And when they do gain these references, it’s too late. They can’t admit that their earlier notions were wrong.

It’s going to be very hard to wrestle power from this man. Sometimes, I think violence will be unavoidable.

JMA: And that’s why I cling to the notion of Ch succumbing to cancer. Assuming that the cult of personality dies with Ch, and that he is terminally ill, his cancer would be a gift. Truly. Not that the scenario of consequence would reverse the damages done — in the medium term.

Syd – I’m talking about educated people between 40 & 50 years old! People that live in Venezuela and live day by day in that “realismo magico” of our country. Is it denial? Is it that may have a cambur hidden somewhere that maybe I don’t know about?
I understand the idealism of university students, specially if they haven’t experimented in their own skin. They just buy the propaganda. I studied at the UCV some 20-something years ago, and yes, I was in close contact with the dreamers of the time, those that wanted to change the world, that even went to internships in Nicaragua to learn first hand. So I know what you are talking about.
But these people are different. BTW, they are not poor either but they are as stubborn as any chavista, you just can’t argue because they’ll go back to the IV.

Carolina: to answer your question as to why well educated 40-50 year olds get wrapped up in a dream … let me first take a detour. Do you remember a video clip, early on in “the proceso”, of one of the Bolivarianos being asked by a journalist why he thought Chavez was so great? The poor man answered, “Bueno, es que la revolución es, pues, la revolución, porque la revolución … “. His answer was a ‘disco rayado’. Pobrecito, not his fault that his education was so limited. He had bought into the dream because he thought it was his ticket to wherever, it promised him a comfort zone. (He also could have been drunk — remember the beer, etc., along with the red T-shirts that the party gave to those who were bused into Caracas for the rallies, in support of Chávez?)

It would be interesting if you could interview some of these people to ask, what factors first attracted them to Chávez. And what factors attract them still to Chávez.

I’m sure you could come up with questions of your own, posed in a non-threatening manner. It could be a revealing study. Assuming the people you interviewed told the truth, and were not afraid to lose face, if they no longer believed in the revolution.

But to get back to why educated adults succumb, I wonder if they seek the dream, the comfort zone, the easy route. Even PhD’s — and there are many in the pantheon of chavista sympathizers — seek these out. I also wonder if no one bothered to tell them, early on, that life is not fair, that life is a grind. So that, when they came across stumbling blocks — and who hasn’t? — their coping mechanisms were weak and vulnerable to someone offering them an easier avenue with streets paved in honey.

The thing is that people discuss this thug’s health problems not truly because they particularly care about them – after all, many people have diseases and you don’t find other people talking constantly about them. People discuss these because he is the president, and such problems affect the life of the country, do they not?

Now, it is very clear that while people have reasonable concerns, HC is using his health problems as another tool for manipulation with the end goal of retaining power. That’s the difference. It is a country that is struggling to regain a long lost sense of normalcy against a criminal psychopath that will stop at nothing to remain in Miraflores.

Thus, people have a hard time managing the available information because they are not used to deal with such a psychopathic mind. Indeed, he has the advantage because he is totally geared to manipulate you and everyone else, sycophants and adversaries. That is what he is best at. The trained professional only needs to read his statements or watch his videos to reach that conclusion. Once a majority of people understand this, then it will be game-over for him and his band of co-narcissists/psychopaths (Yes, such people do exist). It is a matter of time, and it’s up to the people how long it will take. The destruction has to stop.

Those Cubans have ony themselves to blame. Tried to save money by doing it themselves instead of bringing in the Spaniard (Dr. Jose Luis Garcia Sabrido I think they call him). Chavez was treated like an ordibnary Cuban patient, and seems to be suffering the consequences. Still Chavez is foolish enough to be planning another trip to Cuba this month (perhaps his last).

Any communist knows that a power struggle is no fun. It could be a while before Jaua needs medical attention in Cuba.

‘Any communist knows that a power struggle is no fun.’
What about the communist slogan-
“The ends justify the means.”
Chavez-a. breaks all of the rules,b.insults opposition
as if they were less than human,c.fix ballot machines?
all the time laughing “We will win!!”

In a today’s video, he actually throws a Softball and looks quite good doing so, with what looks like full movement and strength.

However, in a shot towards the end of the video, his upper buddy looks abnormally “fat”, almost Herman Monster like. This happened in Miraflores. Does he wear a bullet proof vest even in Miraflores? And it actually looks much thicker than just a vest, almost as if the upper body was in a cast.

In a previous video, where the AP reporter interviews him, his arm movements seem restricted, as if he couldn’t lift them easily (again Herman Monster like).

So there you have it: more rumor like info. But I can’t help to see that as much as he pretends everything is cool, it seems to me something is wrong.

I actually think he is really sick and was propped up for this. He had troubles waking, favoring his left side and many times almost touching the other side. This was certainly a show, recall this is the first time in four weeks Chavez has talked like this. Note also, that on every issue it was, Maduro this, Maduro that, Jaua was not even close.

So, color me positive, as I said he will not be around for my birthday and I am a Taurus…

Puyuyo: I love to see the ball rolling after a post, clearly people want more info, are more eager to talk because they either see or want and end to the Chavez tragedy. If my blog provides a forum for that, I am truly happy (and proud!) as long as we mostly stay on the topic of Venezuela.

Miguel, repeated thanks for allowing the ball rolling after the post. There is an obvious and deep-seated need for people to talk this out, in whatever way or for however long they wish to do so. It’s like part of ‘un sanamiento’ after 12 years of psychological trauma. The possibility of that trauma ending (or mutating to another form) is what gives hope.

I know he doesn’t but those around him will pressure him if he gets really sick to remove Jaua and name one more amenable to the various groups, nobody, absolutely nobody likes Jaua. We may even never know if Chavez actually made the decision.

Miguel, I have to totally disagree about your premise for this blog, and I’m kind of shocked you wrote it, based on all that we know about Hugo:

As a total narcissist, he doesn’t give a CRAP about continuity of power. Nor does he give a crap about the well-being of Venezuela.

Hugo only cares about Hugo, and the LAST thing he’s going to do with death staring him in the face is care about who follows him–also because he thinks he’s invincible and can’t die.

True democratic patriots worry about these kinds of things, but Chavez? Forget it. Chavez only cares about Chavez.

As a matter of fact, Chavez is the type who prays for his successor’s failure, regardless of his party or ideology, because Chavez doesn’t believe the earth revolves around the sun unless he’s around to say so.

Your arguments have a lot of merit, and I tend to agree with them completely when I take only into consideration the nature of his personality disorder. Having said that, I also agree with Miguel that when his close minions realize that he is irrecuperable, they will pressure him to position someone to become his successor. However, it may also be possible that once they realize he is good for nothing, the ones with the most power (The Cubans) will simply arrange things to have one of their faithful to succeed him.

The man is sick, make no mistake about it. How sick we will never know. He is certainly less so than these past rumors would have had us to believe (whomever spread them), but definitively more so than what he tried to convey in his last show.

Exactly. The Cubans need to protect their lifeline, otherwise their regime will collapse in a heartbeat. Whomever gets anointed has to defend their interests. Nonetheless, they are gonna have a hard time finding someone palatable to Venezuelans. Neither Maduro, nor Adan can dream of having a thread of charisma as Hugo has with the people. That might prove a problem for the Cubans, because they should know by now that we are not as docile as their people. Of course, they may choose to “darle una patada a la mesa” and impose a general. That might prove also to be a miscalculation. Either way, the future doesn’t look very bright for the Castrochavismo.

I really don’t know. I imagine it should not be a problem, the transaction would be done at the official rate and Mercantil would have to sell the currency to the Central Bank. What I am not clear about is if you have to send it directly to your uncle’s account or to a special account at Mercantil used for that purpose.

Can someone help me with an unrelated question I have? I need to send some money from my UK bank account to my uncle’s Banco Mercantil account in Maracay. Is this easily done? Anything I should be aware of?

UKO: Your UK bank will likely not have a direct relationship with the Banco Mercantil. As such, there’ll be a need for a correspondent bank as an intermediary.

So, I would recommend that you ask your Uncle, who in turn, should ask his bank manager to provide the electronic addresses of his bank/branch/ account. And be sure that all three info/numbers are accurate!

It may be faster, too, if your uncle’s bank manager can provide the name and electronic address of the correspondent bank, rather than have your UK bank hunt for that information.

if your uncle has any connections with any business people (he can trust) in Maracay who need dollars & have a US$ account outside Venezuela that you could transfer the money to then your uncle will receive almost double the amount here.

The transfer rate right now is BsF.8+ while the official rate is just BsF.4,3.

UK OBserver-I am going to open a Pay Pal account for you-so you can buy yourself a clue!
Don’t you have family or friends who might know anything about this?
For example- your tio- in Maracay- are you trying to surprise him?
So “you need to send” – or -“does he need you to send money”-is this an emergency? Why did you not just stop into your bank and “get it done”?
Any other debts or bills you would like advice about-take
a course in money management. No- go stand in the street and
cry for help?
Actually- you should just fly to Venezuela and hand deliver the money-
seems like UK is causing impaired vision…

Charles,
You are the one who is being pretty silly. This is not about money management. If you are not a Venezuelan permanently busy with trying to get money in or out of Venezuela, and most people on Earth – including quite some Venezuelans expats – are not in that class, you don’t have to know the best method to do this now.
It is actually your “Venezolanito en EUA que cree que sabe del mundo porque vive en Miami y que ahora quiere ser más gringo que los gringos” attitude that causes impaired vision.

Well I guess this is one area of Venezuelan life, along with machismo, that despite living most of my life there, I never adapted myself to.But then again there is much here in the US i don’t cotton to either : rumors….BORE!!!!!!!!!!!

I am mean seriously guys, who gives a %5$#W!!!!ODFWAQ
ESDF! if some people like Bocaranda, some don’t, who cares?I don’t.

The important thing is to understand Chavez’s main and constant strategy and to stand strong.

As for mention of astrology, may I remind you, FP, that you first mentioned it, then countered with “it was a joke,” when I referred to your earlier comment. Today I made a second referral. Are those two times what you mean by my “all the time” mention?

I’m trying to get a grasp on the difference betwen subtlety and exaggeration. Maybe you’ll enlighten me in one of your next psychological lectures. Thanking you in advance …

“I used to find Miguels blog more interesting until this latest takeover by the more childish elements of Venezuela bloggery.”
Syd- when is the last time someone said you need to grow up-?
Ha. Let’s all try to stay young!!
I find the blog becoming more interesting each day practically -I welcome
Syd, Christina, JMA and everyone-(probably I have violated protocol here
much more than most-and I have learned to temper my desire to rant and express rage in a shrill fashion.
For the most part-we seem rather serious-and the comedy, etc is often in good taste- (mine can be less so)..I feel more love than anything else here
and yes- from Mr. Kepler, too. And, you too Fireycerdita

Thanks CharlesC. I may push the boundaries every now and then, I may differ and not agree with some comments, but that doesn’t give me the right to insult anybody.
Except Chavez. I really hate that guy.

I’m with you FP.
I almost never take rumors seriously although I admit that this time I did. Maybe I just got hopeful, who knows?
After realizing that all these bull crap looks like it was a set up of the G2, I honestly don’t give a s**t about Chavez health.
In any case, the country should be able to keep running without him. He is ONLY a president.
One good thing I’m feeling is that the MUD stayed very quiet with this rumor. It looks like they didn’t fall for it or preferred to avoid any comments. They are getting smarter regarding Chavez’s strategies.
In the other hand, it seems to me that Boccaranda totally felt for it. To me, they set him up to discredit him, after getting some credit when the actual cancer situation was made public.
I’ll tell you something: my sister got breast cancer and a full mastectomy few years ago. She also had six sessions of chemo and to date she still gets some oral chemo treatment of some sort. At the time, the whole family helped and pitched in to pay for the surgery and treatment. She has been in remission for about 4 years now. Everything sounds good, right? Well, the thing is that she got used to the easy life of family and friends maintaining her, so she keeps playing the victim telling everyone that she can’t work because she has cancer. At this point, she is using the cancer as an excuse to gain sympathy…and money.
Sounds familiar?

PS: JMA – the doctors told her that the tumor was encapsulated, and yet was malignant (results from biopsy). This is what Chavez is saying too but you said that’s never the case.

To repeat -a question- how did they miss something “as big as a
baseball” -the first surgery? I find it impossible unless they were
looking in the wrong place? Or. ,most likely- it was the size of a
pea. If there was one..
As you said over and over- if IF it was the size of a baseball-
things would be very different..
This is not a rumor- it is either a lie or truth.

I think in a sense Chavez is pulling a “disapperaring act”
and this is because of the real world is all bad publicity.
Soon we will not be able to “find Chavez” – as Firepigette
said- just some images, details, but not the real Chavez..
In a sense he is -already gone…even though he claims
he is returning ‘a new Chavez” -swollen, and then shrinking,
-strange drama,,

Back in 1989 at CAPs coronation, Fidel Castro granted Nelson Bocaranda some time for an interview. When the man was allowed to sit with Fidel, he got all worked out: like “botando el plumero,” because he was, alas, interviewing “El Caballo.” And, I mean, he was hysterical, I witnessed the whole thing. At the time, Fidel Castro commanded a pretty good reputation in almost all settings in Venezuela, so when he made fun of Bocaranda in national television, everyone was filled with what we Venezuelans call “pena ajena.” The episode was widely commented at the time, so Bocaranda got quite a “reputation.” Having been an avid newspaper reader all my life, I have got a good sense of what to think about what he writes.

Rumors are just that rumors. There is no way to prove or disprove them. In fact, that’s the beauty of it, you just don’t need to, right? As I said before, this guy has been wrong many times. He never acknowledges that, preferring instead to hide it under the rug.

So, when someone writes: “JMA, Bocaranda is the master and deserves more respect. I’m sure Nelson can teach you a thing or two,” my response is: Bocaranda doesn’t look like he is the master of anything, and certainly he is not the master of journalism. In Venezuela, there are way better journalists than him. I am not even sure that he is a good journalist. As for the things that this guy might teach me, I say: no, thanks; I prefer to be ignorant.

Moreover: Daniel at Venezuelan News and Views: “El Universal is too serious for rumors even though it hosts Bocaranda…”

“… This guy just entered the final phase.”

This is one for the ages: I got a headache trying to understand the whole paragraph, so I am just transcribing the final phrase. I guess the commenter has some telepathic abilities that allow him/her to connect with Chavez’ attending physician. That is my conclusion after reading what is the boldest statement about Chavez’ condition yet.

“JMA, the oppo already has its game plan whether chavez dies today, tomorrow or next year. There will be changes but the master plan is in place.”

Nice of this person to let us know, because taking into account what I have read about what the opposition is doing, I never would have guessed that there is a master plan. In fact, their actions suggest quite the contrary. I guess they are that good hiding their intentions …except from him/her.

“You can always count on Gweh if you really want to be sure something is NOT happening.”

OK, OK, guys! STOP SPECULATING, FOR GOODNESS SAKE!
Gweh has just said it (see above): Chávez “entered the final phase”. This can only mean one thing: Chávez is OK and this is just a farce to recover popularity after the quarterly magnicidio claims became tiring.

You can always count on Gweh if you really want to be sure something is NOT happening.

Today Chavez described in detail his operations, convalesence, etc. The only thing he refused to say is where the tumor was. There has to be a very good reason for that. These guys don’t do anything without planning it.

Don’t believe anything he says. Not for a second. By definition, a malignant tumor is NEVER encapsulated. That only happens with benign tumors, encapsulated meaning that the tumor is totally surrounded by a fibrous membrane.

A malignant tumor the size of a baseball causes many mechanical problems at the tumor site, whether it’s the colon, the bladder, the prostate, or a retroperitoneal sarcoma, and has surely spread to nearby tissues and regional lymph nodes at the very least. Distant metastasis is very likely.

When I examined the photo in which he appears saying goodbye to Raul, I was shocked by the size of his head, and thought that probably the edema was due to a blocked lymphatic circulation caused by lymph node MTs. But in today’s album photos there is an impressive improvement. Those metastasis could have received radiotherapy.

There is a good reason why he does not reveal what type of cancer he has: prognosis. If the opposition gets a good grasp of his life expectancy, they would surely plan their actions accordingly. This is just another way to try to keep them off-balance.

But even if the public knew where the tumor was located, would that be enough information to arrive at a prognosis? After all, might the more critical information be the (apparent) aggression of the tumor, whether it was high grade or not, and what stage it was at, prior to removal?

Also, knowing Ch’s love of baseball, perhaps the tumor was actually a different size to what was relayed to him, by the first team of surgeons, or what Ch. himself chose to edit for public consumption.

Am I missing something? I must be. How can anyone know that these pictures are current? I certainly wouldn’t trust El Universal or ANY other mainstream media. Miguel, please tell me what piece of the puzzle I’m missing. Surely others like me, who are far removed from VZ, have the same question.

When a patient’s immune system is hard hit by disease or treatment, the patient must be isolated to avoid contagion of any infectious disease, whether bacterial, viral or fungal, especially of the opportunistic kind, which in immunocompromised patients can be severe and deadly.

In patients with malignancy, Granulocyte-Stimulating Colony Factor is given to stimulate the blood marrow to produce precursors of white blood cells, the ones that chiefly fight infection. These precursors also need time to mature. In these patients, neutropenia (low white blood cell count) is not an if but a when. Therefore, oncologists use it at the first sign that the patient’s white blood cell count is dropping, sometimes concurrently with treatment. If Chavez was indeed isolated 2 days ago, then he was severely neutropenic and ready to get a major life-threatening infection. Note that in this setting, anti-infectious agents can do only so much if the patient’s immune system is not working.

To say that the patient was neutropenic just two days ago, and having the patient showing us that this wasn’t the case is priceless. Immunological recovery in just 2 days is impossible, and even if it were, his doctors are not going to risk it by having the patient take a stroll in open air. Thus, the patient is not as sick as the people spreading rumors would have us to believe. There is no sepsis, no neutropenia, no severe hepatic impairment … just yet.

As I wrote in an earlier comment, I can’t believe that the G2 isn’t perfectly capable of controlling the flow of information about Chavez’ true condition, and keeping this Bocaranda guy at bay. Moreover, he seems to be writing more out of wishful thinking than out of a true source, at least regarding Chavez’ health. The G2 must be laughing their asses off.

Everything sounds to me like the G2 orchestrated the whole thing: the leak, the rumor, only to then show a Chavez playing ball all happy and stuff. The opposition will gain nothing out of these rumors (we just get happy), but in the other hand, he has the perfect chance to use us to make fun of us, and to show to his followers how “stupid” we are.

That is some really stupid post by La Patilla. The “mysterious stain” looks very much like a hematoma from placement of a central venous line to administer medication. The placement may have been somewhat traumatic due to his neck edema.

And two days later, the man gets out for a stroll … because now his immune system can take it. I would like to know which brand of Granulocyte Colony-Stimulating Factor they used on him. They could even use this to market the product. Just imagine the line: “We recovered president Hugo Chavez’ immune system in just two days!”

Chavismo has two things going for it: Charisma and pseudo legitimacy through elections. All the world’s fellow travelers were in favor of socialism/communism in Venezuela including Charlie Rangel and Jimmy Carter not to mention countless Hollywood trash. But once Chavez is dead the charisma is gone. If somehow the Chavistas can be gotten to splinter then the electoral legitimacy will be gone as well. Of course, we could be looking at bayonets instead.

At the end of the day the same old truth will prevail: if the military wish it, we’ll have democracy. In some countries the government rules with the consent of the people. In Latin America they usually rule with the consent of the military. That is our sad truth.

But one has to appreciate the irony: Bolivar said that if nature opposes us we’ll make her submit. In this case nature is working in our favor and against a self styled “Bolivarian.”

“At the end of the day the same old truth will prevail: if the military wish it, we’ll have democracy.”
Maybe we need ” big brother” after all? Venezuelan people should be awakened to rise above the military state-and once and for all
put the military back in their proper place in a modern society.

Not that I think they want to name Adán the VP, but he can be named. Who is going to prevent it? The military? The “judges”? This has gone well beyond that. I agree if Hugo dies chances are they will see to it a puppet like Maduro gets the job.

If Chavez is very sick, they will be very careful. Once the big man is gone, things could unravel, they have to support it in legality. They could name maduro, if maduro becomes President, then he could name Adan. Of course, maybe Maduro will promise and then not do it.

because his chemo treatments are not max dosages? I have seen that when they go heavy, you are out by the third chemo. They may juice you with steroids to slow waste but IMO that doesn’t really do much… testosterone (german schering testoviron or mexican organon sustanon make the rounds in venezuela) at 250mg/week. Does this cause water retention? Yes but hardly at 250mg/week but since his kidneys are failing due to the chemo, maybe some. Doesn’t make sense to increase the dosage to 500mg/week or higher as the side effects become more pronounced. Also compatability of steroids with the type of cancer. The other steroid they may use is Deca with or w/o the test but I just dont see it. This guy just entered the final phase.

The government is strongly denying reports of a downturn in the emperor’s health.

Have you noticed how many denials there have been in the last 24 hours.
There wasn’t an explosion in one of the Guri turbines.
Chavez is not sick
Ministro Loya denies food shortages
PDVSA says they will not be investing any more in the USA

Things are also falling apart in many sectors:
2 trains crash in Los Valles de Tuy
3 or 4 different airplane incidents involving national airlines.
The life line of Margarita, Conferry, is confiscated (that should work out well)
The rental law and the profits & prices law should finish us all off economically.

The life line of Margarita, Conferry, is confiscated (that should work out well).

For sure it’ll work well for the regime. And for the ‘despelote’ that follows (or which is currently happening). The Chinese proverb, “A crisis is an opportunity riding the dangerous wind,” comes to mind. Insofar as the Conferry appropriation is concerned, isn’t it a convenient method of transporting arms, etc. to the purported (rebel, terrorist, take your pick) training camps in Margarita?

Well, I admit it’s a stretch, Kep. For Margarita is pretty open terrain. Pero no habrá una cuevita por ahí que sirva? Put another way, do you really buy the (one?) passenger complaint about Conferry, prior to its appropriation?

Kep, don’t exaggerate. I never meant Iranian rockets. I was thinking smaller stuff, either for combat preparedness or even drug-related. The military autocracy is ratcheting up for the post-Chavez period. And key to the transition is the appropriation of all infrastructure related to transportation.

These are today’s main reports regarding Venezuelan public services:
1-Explota una turbina en Guri (this was later denied by an officer who describes the situation at Guri as “relativamente normal!!!”)
2-Choque de trenes en Charallave Norte deja unos 30 heridos
3-Cuatro aviones aterrizan de emergencia en sólo tres días
All these in a rich and relatively small (How many trains do we have? One?)…. Just think how the news could be in one year from now if we follow this trend.
People are going to make the Hugo’s substitute to pay a very high price for this… No more Hugo, equals the end of the irrational hypnosis of the current chavistas, so that would be the end of a sad chapter. I’m worry about the role armed forces in the aftermath…. That could be a new, and much worse, chapter…

Kim Il-Sung has been officially the Eternal President of the Republic since 1998, 4 years after he passed away and went to the Marxist heaven.

Right now there is no actual “president” of the Republic, but the power is divided between the Head of State and Head of Defence, both Kim-Jong-Il (Kim-Il-Sung’s son) and the head of the People’s Assembly, Soto Rojas…I mean, Kim Yong-nam.

if the rumour is true that he was also complaining about pains in the leg(s), that he couldn’t walk, then I wonder if the cancer hasn’t spread to the bones. I think the guy has metastasis written all over him. But it’s just a guess.

Two thoughts: I hope the MUD say open and loud to the pueblo that Chavez lied to them about his illness. He keeps saying that the cancer is gone, and if he kicks the bucket there’s no way they can defend his lies by blaming the empire or the media or the escualidos and all the list.

Another thing would be the MUD: If Chavez is gone, I’m fearing that they won’t go to primaries and run against each other for the presidency, thinking that the chavistas’ candidate won’t be strong enough. This could be very dangerous. The pensamiento chavista is so basic that they might think that Adan, or whoever, is the reincarnation of the master and that he will continue with the legacy (Raul Castro type of thing).

Watching the Jaua is not the important thing. It’s having a plan by the oppo, by the MUD, to know what to do when the tyrant kicks the bucket. Just watching the contortions of Chavismo from the peanut gallery is an utter waste of time. We need to cure Venezuela of the Chavista cancer which is looking terminal at the moment.

Does Lopez have a plan? Does Capriles? Does Maria Corina have a plan? Or are they just looking to get elected in an election that might never happen?

Unfortunately, if they do have a plan, more than likely they can’t make it public. That would land them in jail or in the morgue. This is the best opportunity yet of getting rid of Chavismo. Are we going to take advantage of it?

As many of you fear, Chavismo without Chavez likely will be far worse than with Chavez. Cuba and the drug overlords will have even more power.

Sorry for my ignorance re this matter, but why are you saying “if they do have a plan,…they can’t make it public. That would land them in jail or in the morgue.”?

I am really interested (not any kind of a trick question), because my expertise in campaigning, which is not much and mostly based just on observation of the behavior of candidates in the US.

Once in full campaign mode, candidates in the US incessantly “scream” out their message in every media, going from town to town giving stump speeches and shake hands, mercilessly attack their opponent about anything and everything negative that he / she ever did in their life (going negative, it’s a tactic that has been proven to work over and over) and focusing on election deciding swing states. Of course our system is different, because we don’t elect directly, but one could compare swing state voters with swing (ni-ni) voters in Venezuela.

All of this is well strategized and orchestrated by a campaign “machine”, having a conductor like Bill Morris (Clinton) or Karl Rove (Dubya), or David Axelrod (Obama). Wouln’t it be a wise move for the Venezuelan wannabe presidents to hire somebody like the aforementioned guys who know how to win elections, because as far as I know, there is nobody in Venezuela at the level of the 3 US campaign consultants I mentioned, and, btw, be assured that they would consult local experts and poll about the idiosyncracies of Venezuela, before deciding on a strategy?

Now, all of this doesn’t come cheap, but LL or HCR should be able to come up with what it takes financially. One question though: would HCh scream “treason” and “empire interference” or similar (although sometimes I get the feeling he himself is consulting with foreign experts – and not just with Fidel)?

>>>Sorry for my ignorance re this matter, but why are you saying “if they do have a plan,…they can’t make it public. That would land them in jail or in the morgue.”?

Mike, thanks for the question. In a working democracy things are like you said. In our previous IVth Republic parties did hire foreign experts. But to expect to win an election in a dictatorship run by the Castro brothers from Cuba is a pipe dream. The gerrymandering you guys do in America is kid’s play compared with what happens in Venezuela. In the last election the Chavista regime gave certain Chavista states two votes per citizen. The oppo claimed they got over 50% of the vote but they got less than 50% of the seats in the Assembly. And they go along like nice little lambs to get sheared and to legitimize a crooked regime. But abstention was even worse.

And you might not know about the censorship (gag) laws. You can be throw in jail if you say unkind things about the government, even if true — Ley Mordaza, see link below. And you can go to jail if you say unpleasant truths about people in government, even if true.

My point is that Adan Chavez has stated publicly that the revolution can use force to stay in power should they lose the elections. In a situation like this playing electoral politics is just plain stupid. You need something much more solid to get rid of the Chavista tyranny. Obviously, if the oppo has such a plan, it must be kept secret from the government.

In my opinion, the electoral politics of the opposition shows they are totally out of touch with reality (in denial as a certain poster likes to say) or they are throwing up a huge smoke screen. I doubt they are smart enough for that.

How many political prisoners exist in Venezuela? Only to save his putrid soul did Chavez relent and release the political prisoners sick with cancer. How many Venezuelans are in exile including our host Miguel?

I am quite familiar with the very unfair gerrymandering that led to the voting results as described by you in your parapraph 2 (after the quote).

I also know of course about the gag law, but never made the connection that, after all, presidential candidates are mere citizens, except I guess those that are members of the AN (immune ?), and this speech censorship law applies to them and they could never go negative against Chavez, or else…as you said, while he of course can say and do as he pleases.

I am sorry, but it is going to be a steep uphill battle to get rid of the guy by democratic means. However, his illness might be a gamechanger, like how about chavismo dividing the vote amongst themselves according to loyalties to potential Chavez’ successors, if Chavez can’t campaign / run or is no longer around.

Miguel,
Who will be there to replace Elias Jaua? If it happens without too much loss of arterial blood one might conclude that someone other than the deceased has been in control all along. If the river water turns red, then we will know that Chavez probably was the one in control. Watch out for headless chickens.
This is a good time to prepare an orbituary, but we could be stuck with it in a drawer for a long time. The Spaniard who keeps Castro alive is very good at it.

Obituary-Here lies the SOB who robbed more billions than anyone
in history from his own country to fund an evil empire that extended
to far corners of the Earth. It will take generations to clean up
and repair the damage..