And I'll agree that the £30 a month isn't all that good, but it's obviously aimed at those just wanting an iPhone for the internet features. The £35 a month one is a lot better, 600 minutes and 500 texts is about in line with what other contracts offer for £25-30 a month, but they don't offer unlimited data rates, nor access to 9500 WiFi hotspots.

quote:

Is this supposed to be a good deal? $50/month for 100 minutes?

UK rates are not meaningfully cheaper than US except for the low use PayG. And using PayG for feature rich phones - like the ones being discussed in this thread - turns out to be a terrible deal.

For 100 minutes and 1000 texts. Also, remember that the US has the ridiculous system of charging both the sender and the receiver.

Originally posted by bash666:The category of feature rich phones with decent resolutions is the only one worth discussing. 128 x 128 pixel screens don't matter.

You can't seriously believe 128x128 or even 176x220 is still the norm for $150 phones 5 years from now, let alone 7.

quote:

That will get the phone that costs $300 today into the range. What about those that cost $500-600 (which covers lots of WinMo and the iPhone 3G in Europe)?

It will bring phones that can run Symbian, OSX, WM or Android reasonably well with QVGA screens into the range. Those $500-600 phones have big margins right now, and more room to go down then $200-300 phones.

quote:

$150 is just a bad number. I'm not sure why you think it matters compared to $300. It's not like any of the manufacturers will ever be in a hurry to release $150 phones if they can find a combination that will justify $300+.

Make it $200 then. If anything, I think I was being generous, especially if we're talking about 2015 and wholesale prices. They'll find combinations to justify $300+ just fine, but a $150 phone by then will run a smartphone OS decently. Just like a $500 laptop today runs a modern OS decently, though there is enough room in the market for $1000 - $3000 laptops.

quote:

quote:

There are already a number of 320x240 screen phones at that price today

New, current phones? Where? The now ancient (and discontinued form manufacture) SGH-i607 is trading well above that.

The Nokia 6300 or 3120 classic is around $150 wholesale. The SE S500 should be close that that as well, as is the Samsung E900.

quote:

I think you are underestimating the maturity of the phone market in expecting the kind of price reductions that emerge from nascent product lines. But I think at this point there is no further point in discussing differing opinions.

We don't even have to wait five years for that. There will be enough (non-touch) QVGA in mid-range phones ($150-$250 wholesale) released this year, by this time next year they should be plentyful.

Originally posted by Echohead2:How does this change people's opinions?

I think it puts Symbian in a worse position than before as it looks likely that they haven't started doing anything to counter the iPhone yet.

It might mean that Blackberry are in a similar boat. However as MS announced Windows Mobile 7 after the iPhone was announced and Android is progressing, so between those three its still definitely up in the air.

EDIT: As lookmark says it probably strengthens Symbian's position further on if they can turn it round, and they've got a lot of inertia.

If Apple and Google weren't in the game, then i'd say MS. MS has always been able to succeed when surrounded by stupid competitors. Unfortunately for MS, both Apple and Google have shown in hte past few years that they can be quite savvy and don't make the sort of long term costly strategic mistakes that others have done in the past. As such, my money will be A & G.

I feel that Apple will rake in tons of money going for a smaller niche of users who are willing to spend lots of cash on a nice phone. Google will pick up the remainder with an ubiquitous framework used on all the rest of the phones.

Originally posted by Metasyntactic:If Apple and Google weren't in the game, then i'd say MS. MS has always been able to succeed when surrounded by stupid competitors.

Agreed. Ironically, Apple was one of those stupid competitors in the past. Not this time though.

quote:

I feel that Apple will rake in tons of money going for a smaller niche of users who are willing to spend lots of cash on a nice phone. Google will pick up the remainder with an ubiquitous framework used on all the rest of the phones.

But is it really "lots of cash" at this point? The monthly fees are larger, true, but are there other phone + data plans out there that put the iPhone's to shame? [<-- genuine question]

I don't know where your 3% idea comes from - Mac sales? - but *you* have to be crazy if you think smartphones are going to follow the exact same path as PCs did in the '80s and '90s. This a very different market at a different time.

Just a guess and perhaps I am crazy in thinking Apple will sell 9m phones/quarter (3%). Garnet predicts the smartphone market to grow to 1b in 2010 (15% is 150m phones/yr), and for Symbian to crash hard (as you predict), the entire mobile phone industry will need to collapse (or every other OS vendor to pick up the rest). I just don't see that happening, but one never knows.

I'm curious on when the fall of Symbian market share is supposed to happen. Since the release of the iPhone it has gone up.

Originally posted by Scud:Just a guess and perhaps I am crazy in thinking Apple will sell 9m phones/quarter (3%). Garnet predicts the smartphone market to grow to 1b in 2010 (15% is 150m phones/yr), and for Symbian to crash hard (as you predict), the entire mobile phone industry will need to collapse (or every other OS vendor to pick up the rest). I just don't see that happening, but one never knows.

I'm curious on when the fall of Symbian market share is supposed to happen. Since the release of the iPhone it has gone up.

The entire mobile phone industry won't collapse (whatever that might mean), but it will undergo dramatic change, and lots of companies will die or leave the field (Motorola and Palm, I'm lookin' at you). The future of the phone is basically the iPhone - not the iPhone in particular necessarily, but what the iPhone brought to the table: the super-user-friendly smartphone. IMVHO, once you use one, there's no going back. It's like going from DOS to Windows 3.1, or Windows 3.1 to Windows 95. It's a bit deeper than that, though: the smartphone turns the phone from a disposable CE device (with precious little brand loyalty) into a device that runs a platform, and that makes choosing a phone for many a platform choice. Big shift.

Anyway, until Symbian matches the iPhone / Android / (rumored) WM7 experience, its marketshare will continue to ebb. How fast that happens depends on a lot of things, but I'm willing to bet that at some point it start happening very quickly. It seems very obvious to me why Symbian's hold on mobile OS marketshare is so tenuous... but if you really don't understand why, I'd be happy to.

but it will undergo dramatic change, and lots of companies will die or leave the field (Motorola and Palm, I'm lookin' at you).

That's not an example of a lot of change and only Motorola has products based on Symbian (Motorola makes up 2.4% of Symbian sales). In order for Symbian to crash, you are saying Nokia is going to crash (and the iPhone hasn't negatively affected Nokia).

quote:

How fast that happens depends on a lot of things, but I'm willing to bet that at some point it start happening very quickly.

Fair enough. So which os will make that happen? Clearly the iPhone hasn't been it (it had the opposite effect on Symbian sales, in fact every OS vendor except Linux went up since the iPhone). Android? WM7?

Originally posted by bash666:Yes, it appears that it is now ambiguous, but clearly still in existence (from the various posts one can find about being cut off). And the cut off point is worse than T-mobile's FUP.

Have you got dates of when these posts were? Prior to February there was a data cap, they removed that in February.

quote:

Depends on lots of things, including who you are calling and the time of day/day of week. Voice in the US tends to be much cheaper than in Europe, text the opposite.

Well yeah, if you make your 100 minutes of calls during peak times, then the potential saving over pay as you go is obviously greater than if you make your 100 minutes of calls at weekend.

but it will undergo dramatic change, and lots of companies will die or leave the field (Motorola and Palm, I'm lookin' at you).

That's not an example of a lot of change and only Motorola has products based on Symbian (Motorola makes up 2.4% of Symbian sales). In order for Symbian to crash, you are saying Nokia is going to crash (and the iPhone hasn't negatively affected Nokia).

Nokia have phones based on other OS's but Symbian, and they also sell a lot of non-smart phones which always had an excellent UI.

quote:

Originally posted by Scud:I'm curious on when the fall of Symbian market share is supposed to happen. Since the release of the iPhone it has gone up.

It could be due to an unrelated effect, not everything is tied to the iPhone, and certainly not at this stage.

Originally posted by Scud:Fair enough. So which os will make that happen? Clearly the iPhone hasn't been it (it had the opposite effect on Symbian sales, in fact every OS vendor except Linux went up since the iPhone). Android? WM7?

Well, the iPhone so far has excited a lot of interest, but it's been sandbagged by a bunch of things: high price tag, no 3G, no third-party apps (it hasn't even been a platform), no Exchange support, very limited international availability. That's all about to change.

In '08 we have the $199 iPhone with close to WW availability, and a possibly a trickle of Android phones.

In '09 we have Android, WM7, Palm (well, you never know), and whatever Apple has up its sleeve.

So, barring some dramatic reinvention, my guess is that Symbian marketshare will start taking a turn somewhere either late '08 or '09, and a real dive a year or two afterward.

quote:

Symbians market share has to start a decline in order to continue in that direction. My suggestion is to wait until that happens before starting the Symbian/Nokia death clock.

Sure. That's because the iPhone has excited interest, but the iPhone so far has been sandbagged by a lot of things: high price tag, no 3G, no third-party apps (it hasn't even been a platform), no Exchange support, very limited international availability. That's all about to change.

I agree all that can (and probably will) equate to a major push for the iPhone.

Originally posted by darkpill:Sure - in the 90's that may have been the case - one a few occasions - but they are pretty much batting zero so far this decade when it comes to dominating new fields.

But this decade they haven't been going after markets that are their core competencies, whereas Windows Mobile is closer to what they've done before. Basically this time Apple had the key idea with the iPhone, but ideas can be copied so the competition can compete with it, especially as its going to take 2 years from introduction to be in a position to take serious marketshare worldwide and even then they're missing the low end of the market.

Microsoft has been working on Windows Mobile for frickin' years though. It's over. They couldn't even catch up with the Zune. If they can't even compete in something as simple as the Mp3 market, I don't see how they are going to have an easier time with a smart mobile phone. How long until their next version of Windows Mobile? A year? iPhone will be on v 3.0 by then.

Originally posted by darkpill:Sure - in the 90's that may have been the case - one a few occasions - but they are pretty much batting zero so far this decade when it comes to dominating new fields.

But this decade they haven't been going after markets that are their core competencies, whereas Windows Mobile is closer to what they've done before. Basically this time Apple had the key idea with the iPhone, but ideas can be copied so the competition can compete with it, especially as its going to take 2 years from introduction to be in a position to take serious marketshare worldwide and even then they're missing the low end of the market.

Microsoft has been working on Windows Mobile for frickin' years though. It's over. They couldn't even catch up with the Zune. If they can't even compete in something as simple as the Mp3 market, I don't see how they are going to have an easier time with a smart mobile phone. How long until their next version of Windows Mobile? A year? iPhone will be on v 3.0 by then.

Meh, that's never been a problem before. If Microsoft gave up on V2 of everything, then they wouldn't be totally in control of so many markets already.

Apple takes even longer than MS does. But that's ok, they go with a 'profitable from the start' strategy that makes it ok for it to take generations to build up their base appropriately.

What's with you lately? Your trolling used to be much better. Now it's just basic attempts without thought put behind it.

Originally posted by darkpill:Sure - in the 90's that may have been the case - one a few occasions - but they are pretty much batting zero so far this decade when it comes to dominating new fields.

But this decade they haven't been going after markets that are their core competencies, whereas Windows Mobile is closer to what they've done before. Basically this time Apple had the key idea with the iPhone, but ideas can be copied so the competition can compete with it, especially as its going to take 2 years from introduction to be in a position to take serious marketshare worldwide and even then they're missing the low end of the market.

Microsoft has been working on Windows Mobile for frickin' years though. It's over. They couldn't even catch up with the Zune. If they can't even compete in something as simple as the Mp3 market, I don't see how they are going to have an easier time with a smart mobile phone. How long until their next version of Windows Mobile? A year? iPhone will be on v 3.0 by then.

By that argument the only competitors are Android and iPhone.

Its too early to call that though.

There is no reason for Windows Mobile 7 not to be as good as iPhone, they've had almost as long as Apple to perfect it, and they wont have had to start from scratch.

Just like a $500 laptop today runs a modern OS decently, though there is enough room in the market for $1000 - $3000 laptops.

The problem is that a $300 doesn't. Laptops appear to be hitting a floor with respect to how low seemingly full featured laptops will be offered. The same type of floor will affect rish smart phones as well.

quote:

The Nokia 6300 or 3120 classic is around $150 wholesale. The SE S500 should be close that that as well, as is the Samsung E900.

Now do you know of any phones that don't suck as smart phones?

Again, it is pointless to discuss hardware with limited input options and tiny screens.

quote:

We don't even have to wait five years for that. There will be enough (non-touch) QVGA in mid-range phones ($150-$250 wholesale) released this year, by this time next year they should be plentyful.

You are dreaming, at least if you are discussing available in large quantities unsubsidized.

Originally posted by bash666:The problem is that a $300 doesn't. Laptops appear to be hitting a floor with respect to how low seemingly full featured laptops will be offered. The same type of floor will affect rish smart phones as well.

A small diversion, but I don't think we've seen the laptop floor yet. I'm guessing that in 2013 you can get $300 retail laptops in good quantities that will run today's Vista reasonably well (i.e. as well as todays $500 laptops).

Anyway, I'm talking about $150 wholesale price handsets that can run Symbian, OSX, WM or Android well. Do you honestly not see that happening by 2013 or at the latest 2015? Not "rich smart phones", because that's a rather stretchy notion, especially the rich part, and you'll no doubt want to stretch the richness each year. Just phones that run them as well as todays $300-$500 phones.

quote:

Now do you know of any phones that don't suck as smart phones?

Stop moving the goalposts. I only said QVGA is available at that price and stated from the beginning that the displays are small (2"). And that only because you kept going on about 128x128 screens. Obviously you can't get a 2.4" QVGA touchscreen device at that price today, otherwise we wouldn't be having this discussion. But I'm quite confident that 2.4" QVGA will be plentyful at that price point in 2013.

quote:

Again, it is pointless to discuss hardware with limited input options and tiny screens.

QVGA is here today in the midrange. It's still small (though I'm not sure how much that's due to costs or form factor considerations), but you can get them be bigger at that price in 5 years. Maybe not all touch screen, but neither that nor QWERTY is necessary to be considered a smartphone today.

quote:

quote:

We don't even have to wait five years for that. There will be enough (non-touch) QVGA in mid-range phones ($150-$250 wholesale) released this year, by this time next year they should be plentyful.

You are dreaming, at least if you are discussing available in large quantities unsubsidized.

I'm talking about wholesale prices for vendors who buy them by the hundreds to thousands, and I'm obviously not dreaming because QVGA is available in large quantities in that price range today. A number of models were released this year, so we're not just talking about old stock. I really don't understand why you cling to the notion that QVGA is still a high end feature today or next year at the latest, let alone 5 years from now.

Originally posted by Scud:Fair enough. So which os will make that happen? Clearly the iPhone hasn't been it (it had the opposite effect on Symbian sales, in fact every OS vendor except Linux went up since the iPhone). Android? WM7?

Well, the iPhone so far has excited a lot of interest, but it's been sandbagged by a bunch of things: high price tag, no 3G, no third-party apps (it hasn't even been a platform), no Exchange support, very limited international availability. That's all about to change.

In '08 we have the $199 iPhone with close to WW availability, and a possibly a trickle of Android phones.

In '09 we have Android, WM7, Palm (well, you never know), and whatever Apple has up its sleeve.

So, barring some dramatic reinvention, my guess is that Symbian marketshare will start taking a turn somewhere either late '08 or '09, and a real dive a year or two afterward.

I think everyone is misreading the market. Supposedly, a massive percentage of the iPhones already sold were being unlocked and put on other carriers. Without the ability to use another carrier outside of the one carrier Apple has designated in each country they're going to lose a sizable chuck of sales.

The lower price and other new features will likely be equal or higher to the sales lost but I don't expect this ridiculous jump everyone is trumpetting. I see people predicting 15-20 million by the end of the year.

Though its mainly in the US that even the carriers aren't that competitive.

UK carriers are very non competitive. The minimum plan to go with the iPhone 3G is $60, and this plan is incredibly limited: 200MB of data, 175 texts and 75 minutes (and this with a $340 co pay for the 16GB phone). It's $70 to get anything resembling a decent plan. The only place Uk plans look good is in very low usage scenarios, where even US PayG effectively have monthly minimums.

Prices are similar throughout most of Europe. The presence of only 4 or 5 carriers is what makes the final leg relatively non-competitive relative to the rest of the phone chain.

That sounds strange, where to you got this information from? Just in Norway it is probably more than 10 carriers: Telenor, NetCom, Talkmore, Ventelo, One Call, Tele2, Lebara, Vitel, ACL, Djuce, Lyse, Chess etc.

I would expect bigger countries to have more providers.

With respect to prices I thought it was very expensive with cell phone in the US when I lived there 4-5 years ago. Although I guess it has improved now. With my talkmore subscription I pay no monthly fees, and I pay 10 cent to initiate a conversation with another talkmore subscriber but can then talk as long as I like without paying extra. For others it is about 10 cent per minute. And of course I pay nothing to be called by someone.

Since I don't call people that much I spend almost nothing each month on my phone bills. If I need to call someone I can usually do it from work or skype. My mobile is basically there for me to be available.

I personally don't think Symbian or Windows CE/Mobile will make it. They were design for systems with far less resources available.

The only phone OS's in the market today which based on modern fully featured operating systems, is as far as I know only OS X and Linux.

Now that Nokia has aquired Trolltech I think they will use the Qtopia platform to create their next platform for cell phones.

I think that will be a serious competition to Apple. I doubt iPhone ever will be a mass market phone, since Apple always seem to be into the premium market. But maybe I am wrong and they end up making a sort of shuffle iPhone.

I think Microsoft will be on their way back into the market but only after they have ditched Windows CE and started using Windows NT as the basis for a phone OS.

That way they can do like Apple, leverage their developments of the desktop version in the phone version, and not have to do everything twice as is the case now.

Prices are similar throughout most of Europe. The presence of only 4 or 5 carriers is what makes the final leg relatively non-competitive relative to the rest of the phone chain.

That sounds strange, where to you got this information from? Just in Norway it is probably more than 10 carriers: Telenor, NetCom, Talkmore, Ventelo, One Call, Tele2, Lebara, Vitel, ACL, Djuce, Lyse, Chess etc.

Originally posted by Gzzy:Supposedly, a massive percentage of the iPhones already sold were being unlocked and put on other carriers. Without the ability to use another carrier outside of the one carrier Apple has designated in each country they're going to lose a sizable chuck of sales.

Apple isn't doing that in new countries though...

quote:

Originally posted by erikengh:I personally don't think Symbian or Windows CE/Mobile will make it. They were design for systems with far less resources available.

I'm not so sure with WM 7.

quote:

Originally posted by erikengh:I doubt iPhone ever will be a mass market phone, since Apple always seem to be into the premium market. But maybe I am wrong and they end up making a sort of shuffle iPhone.

The iPod is mass market, and made by Apple, and is also a portable device so I don't see why not.

Originally posted by Gzzy:I think everyone is misreading the market. Supposedly, a massive percentage of the iPhones already sold were being unlocked and put on other carriers. Without the ability to use another carrier outside of the one carrier Apple has designated in each country they're going to lose a sizable chuck of sales.

Yes, supposedly about 30% of iPhones (maybe even more) sold were being re-sold unlocked on the grey market, often at inflated prices.

However, you haven't been following the news - Apple has abandoned its carrier-exclusive, revenue-sharing model, and the iPhone is being introduced is just about every "new" country with a number of carriers.

quote:

The lower price and other new features will likely be equal or higher to the sales lost but I don't expect this ridiculous jump everyone is trumpetting. I see people predicting 15-20 million by the end of the year.

That's certainly an optimistic number. They've already sold 2M this year - I think they'll hit 14M total for '08.

There will be a big jump, though, because $199 is a huge difference, the new features erase the device's most significant drawbacks, third-party apps & games on the level of quality we've seen previewed so far will be a big deal, and the difference between official roll-outs and grey market sales shouldn't be underestimated.

However, you haven't been following the news - Apple has abandoned its carrier-exclusive, revenue-sharing model, and the iPhone is being introduced is just about every "new" country with a number of carriers.

I believe in the majority of countries it's still only available from one carrier.

Originally posted by erikengh:That sounds strange, where to you got this information from? Just in Norway it is probably more than 10 carriers: Telenor, NetCom, Talkmore, Ventelo, One Call, Tele2, Lebara, Vitel, ACL, Djuce, Lyse, Chess etc.

I would expect bigger countries to have more providers.

It depends on the country. In the UK the major providers are O2, Vodafone, Orange, T Mobile, 3 and Virgin. All of these are in various other countries, sometimes under the same name, sometimes with subsidiaries. For example, Vodafone are the 2nd biggest carrier in the world (after China Mobile) and are in pretty much every country in the world in some way or another(I believe they own like a 30-40% stake of Verizon wireless in the US for example). T Mobile is another of the big providers world wide. Not too sure about Orange and Telefonica (O2's parent company) outside of Europe, but they're fairly popular around Europe I believe. Ultimately there are around 4 or 5 main providers in Europe, but as they often work through subsidiaries it may not seem that way.

Originally posted by uatu:I believe in the majority of countries it's still only available from one carrier.

Ah, you're right. Thanks for the correction.

quote:

Originally posted by uatu:I'd guess most carriers will have exclusivity agreements in their country for at least a half or one year. I don't believe carrier exclusivity will be a big issue for sales though.

I agree on both counts. Price definitely trumps carrier choice.

The larger point I was trying to make about exclusivity is that Apple's business model for the iPhone has changed behind the scenes quite a bit - which means very likely no more multi-year exclusivity arrangements (which frankly is probably the only thing that would convince carriers to adopt monthly revenue-sharing plans).

And subsidization + no purchases w/o signing a contract will change the unlocked iPhone market completely.

This is a pretty dull argument to make, though... I doubt very many people here (except for Gzzy?) think iPhone sales aren't going to jump in a big way with the 3G model.

Originally posted by Pilky:It depends on the country. In the UK the major providers are O2, Vodafone, Orange, T Mobile, 3 and Virgin. All of these are in various other countries, sometimes under the same name, sometimes with subsidiaries. For example, Vodafone are the 2nd biggest carrier in the world (after China Mobile) and are in pretty much every country in the world in some way or another(I believe they own like a 30-40% stake of Verizon wireless in the US for example). T Mobile is another of the big providers world wide. Not too sure about Orange and Telefonica (O2's parent company) outside of Europe, but they're fairly popular around Europe I believe. Ultimately there are around 4 or 5 main providers in Europe, but as they often work through subsidiaries it may not seem that way.

But I believe the larger point was that most countries only have 3 to 5 carriers with their own network, which does not always lead to much competition. There are usually also a number of mobile virtual network operators (MVNOs), but having a big number of those doesn't necessarily improve the competitive landscape. MVNOs use the networks of the main operators, so having a few large ones is often better for the prices than a large number of small ones (as the bargaining position of a few large ones is much better).

That sounds strange, where to you got this information from? Just in Norway it is probably more than 10 carriers: Telenor, NetCom, Talkmore, Ventelo, One Call, Tele2, Lebara, Vitel, ACL, Djuce, Lyse, Chess etc.

As previously mentioned I was describing actual radio tower owners, not virtual operators.

Originally posted by lookmark:No idea what the consumer/enterprise split is for the cell phone market.

In the general cell phone market it'll be wildly in favour of consumers, probably 90% consumer/10% business. Only a small number of countries/companies will actually have any enterprise features setup at all.

In the smartphone market it'll be the other way round though, the vast majority of non-iPhone smartphones will be business only.

This is just an educated guess, but seems about right.

quote:

Originally posted by lookmark:

quote:

Originally posted by uatu:I believe in the majority of countries it's still only available from one carrier.

Ah, you're right. Thanks for the correction.

Many countries aren't exclusive however, for example the ones in south-america, so they'll get additional networks quite quickly. I've certainly seen reliable information to show that.