On a knife edge

It isn't over yet. James Purnell's 10pm surprise hasn't been followed by a rush of senior figures endorsing his call for change. He's gone over the top shouting "follow meeeeee!" and is now looking over his shoulder, to find his mates still in the trench assuring him "you go ahead, we'll meet you back at the hotel." Those he briefed about his intentions understandably pitched this is as the decisive moment that changes everythng. But is it?

I suggested in my column yesterday that it should be easy to topple Mr Brown by just such a statement as the considered letter issued by Mr Purnell. I even pointed out that Mr Purnell was "dangerously close" to speaking out. But what's odd about the mood this morning is that despite all the buzz, the numbers aren't going his way. Lord Mandelson, David Miliband, Caroline Flint are all staying put. In a coup there's always the moment when the rebels wait to see if the presidential guard join in. But this Prime Minister is not going quietly. What will Alistair Darling do?