California PEV registration analysis thru 2012

By
the end of 2012, there were over 26,000 light-duty PEVs on California roads representing $1 billion in gross revenues…

A
new resource is now available on the UCLA Luskin Center EV Initiative's Market Dynamics page. This presentation
includes facts and figures characterizing the California registration[1]
of over 26,000 plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) during the period
12/1/2012 thru 12/31/2012.

This
cumulative PEV fleet on California roads is capable of using its over 504,000
kilowatt-hours of batteries to drive over 1.4 million EPA-rated electric
miles each time it recharges.

What
are the best-selling PEVs in California?

By
the end of 2012, over 8,000 Chevy Volts
were on California roads, the largest number of any PEV model.

Two
relatively new PEVs experienced rapid sales, the Prius Plug-in (released in
March 2012) and the Tesla Model S (released in June 2012). Each was able to
capture a relatively large share of cumulative sales in a short time. (Note
that the Prius hybrid is the best-selling car in California, and that Tesla is based in California and the Model S is
made in California.)

How
does California differ from the U.S. as a whole?

Although
plug-in hybrids also dominate California PEV registrations (with a 59% share),
Californians drive a greater percentage of all-battery vehicles (BEVs) than the
nation as a whole. 41% of the vehicles in the California registration data were
BEVs, compared to 35% of total U.S. sales over the same time period. This is to
be expected due to California policies incentivizing and requiring manufacturers
to deliver for sale “pure” zero-tailpipe-emission vehicles. Accordingly, several model
release schedules begin in California before expanding nationwide.

Further,
BEVs registered in California accounted for a full 43% of U.S. total BEV sales.

What about PHEVs and PEVs as a whole? What
portion of U.S. sales do California registrations account for?

The
California registration share of U.S. total sales was 34% for plug-in hybrids
and 37% for plug-in vehicles as a whole.

How
do California PEVs compare to gasoline-only hybrids?

Acknowledging
a decade of differences, the introduction of California PEVs starting in 2010
dramatically outpaced the introduction of California gasoline-only hybrid
electric vehicles (HEVs) starting in 1999. In the first three years of
introduction, California PEV registrations (2010–2012) not only dramatically outpaced
California HEV registrations (1999–2001), but nearly kept up with total U.S.
HEV registrations (1999–2001).

---

Background:

Are
EV sales really disappointing? That may be a matter of expectations (more
on this in the blog entry "Managing EV Expectations"). But what
are the facts so far? There are now over 100,000 plug-in electric vehicles
(PEVs) on U.S. roads. And by some measures, PEVs are off to a much better
start than gasoline-only hybrids were a decade ago. U.S. PEVs represent $4
billion in gross revenues (and the Volt alone $1.5 billion). Learn
more from ongoing Luskin research, to be updated monthly, characterizing PEV
sales from December 2010 to the present.

[1] Based on analysis of registration data obtained from RL Polk
& Co.