Compared to his best season, in 2013 Jimenez has generated as many strikeouts. He’s thrown as many strikes, he’s generated as many grounders, and he’s actually worked ahead in the count a little more often. He hasn’t worked as deeply in games, and he hasn’t thrown his pitches at the same velocity, but if you want to be encouraged by 2013 Ubaldo Jimenez, doing so isn’t a stretch. There’s a lot of beauty beneath the less beautiful.

I threw out a line to Kyle Boddy at Driveline Mechanics to see if he has noticed anything different with Ubaldo's mechanics.

His batting average against and BABIP are well below his career averages and it's hard to imagine that those numbers stay that good throughout the season, especially since he has returned to his ground ball inducing ways. The .230 mark is both an indication of inducing weak contact and a little bit of luck.

The advanced metrics, as Jeff mentions, tell a pretty optimistic story. I don't think he mentioned it in the article, but Jimenez's SIERA (skill-interactive ERA) is actually 3.96. That takes into account K, BB, and types of batted balls. His line drive rate is 7% lower than last season and his ground ball rate is up 11.1%. Obviously, less damage gets done on ground balls than fly balls. And, obviously, line drives are a bad thing.

I think a lot of people still have this misconception of Jimenez that he can return to dominance. He was only dominant for one three-month stretch in 2010. He was a ground ball machine who happened to strike out over eight batters per nine innings. Most ground ball guys aren't strike out pitchers, so that increased his value.

I'm not ready to say he's fixed yet. And it takes a lot more effort to get outs sitting 91-92 instead of 95-96. I think the biggest change in Ubaldo this year is throwing the two-seamer more. The data is inaccurate because of two-seamers wrongly classified as changeups earlier in the year, but he's pitching now instead of trying to throw it by everybody at 92.

Francona and Callaway had to break him down. He was clinging to what he was, a guy who could throw it by somebody at 96 if he needed to. When he reached back behind in the count to throw it by somebody, it got hit a mile because it was 91 and up. Now, he's trying to become a pitcher instead of a thrower. Sequencing. Changing speeds. Back to inducing ground balls.

I don't think any of us will be confident with him on the mound for quite some time and I shudder to think about him starting a crucial game in September or, God willing, the playoffs, but we're starting to see some confidence from Jimenez that we haven't seen his entire time in Cleveland and we may be seeing a transformation in his mental makeup that will allow him to be an effective starter.

A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe

SEEMS to me his greatest strength of late has been pitching backwards. One of his fundamental problems is having to pitch ahead in the count to make his best pitch effective. Guys were laying off the 2 seamer early in the count because he can't throw it for strikes. So he has gone to getting ahead of hitters more often with get me over breaking stuff, creating an urgency for hitters to protect and chase his out pitches.

With his mechanics still a working nightmare, at some point this strategy is going to hit the shitter. Then who knows what will happen, but I doubt it is good.

The most remarkable part of these good starts is the lack of having to throw pitches from the stretch. Not sure if tracking that exists, but I would be interested to see what his splits are in each scenario and how much less often is he in the stretch over the last 3.

pup wrote:SEEMS to me his greatest strength of late has been pitching backwards. One of his fundamental problems is having to pitch ahead in the count to make his best pitch effective. Guys were laying off the 2 seamer early in the count because he can't throw it for strikes. So he has gone to getting ahead of hitters more often with get me over breaking stuff, creating an urgency for hitters to protect and chase his out pitches.

With his mechanics still a working nightmare, at some point this strategy is going to hit the shitter. Then who knows what will happen, but I doubt it is good.

The most remarkable part of these good starts is the lack of having to throw pitches from the stretch. Not sure if tracking that exists, but I would be interested to see what his splits are in each scenario and how much less often is he in the stretch over the last 3.

I could put that data together. Would just have to look at his splits with runners on in situations where he would pitch from the stretch. The data wouldn't account for times with a runner on when he wasn't pitching from the stretch (like, say, a guy like Giambi on first) but those situations have to be few and far between.

Also, I agree with your visual assessment. I'm sure the data is somewhere to back it up, though I don't know where.

A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe

Pitching from the stretch is definitely his Achilles heel, but at least by getting more batters to hit the ball on the ground he's limiting the extra base hits, which means it takes three hits to get a run off him. Or two singles sandwiched around a stolen base.

The excellent speed in the outfield this year means more hits into the gaps are being cut off and held to singles, whereas last year they would have gotten past Damon, Duncan, Choo, et al. I think that's also helping Ubaldo and the rest of the staff.

It's interesting that he's getting just as many strikeouts as his best season despite losing several MPH off his fastball. Maybe he finally did give up the idea that he could blow hitters away for strike three and is using all his pitches in every count.

Or maybe speeding up his delivery improved his command. He's definitely throwing more strikes early in the count than the last couple of years, and I don't need to look at any numbers to tell you that.

He is making $5.75 mil this year and scheduled to be FA next year. (I think we can agree offering him arbitration would be a mistake). I would comsider trading him unless he would agree to a 1 or 2 year extention around 5-6 mil with incentives for wins, maybe another one for 25 starts, and things of that nature. Let someone else overpay.

I hope to be buyers at the deadline, but Ubaldo is having a great year to really maximize his trade value.

"Cocaine is a hell of a drug" - Originated from a famous skit in Dave Chappelle's "Chappelle's Show". The skit would portray Rick James, usually high on cocaine, preforming doing crazy and stupid things, such as smacking Charlie Murphy in the face. Rick James would frequently explain away his actions by saying "Cocaine is a hell of a drug".

kman_holla8 wrote:I hope to be buyers at the deadline, but Ubaldo is having a great year to really maximize his trade value.

Totally agree but what if they're battling for first place in the Central and Ubaldo is still pitching great?

Do they dare bring up Carrasco or Bauer and put them in the rotation in the heat of a pennant race?

Ubaldo has always said he likes it here. Callaway has him back on track. It seems to be a winning team now. Maybe he'd be open to signing on for a few more years.

Myers leaving will free up $7 million, plus another $6 million if Reynolds moves on. And if the Tribe can stay in contention all year there should be a boost in revenues through higher attendance. Maybe we could make Ubaldo a competitive offer, although if it came down to one or the other, I'd rather have Reynolds.

kman_holla8 wrote:He is making $5.75 mil this year and scheduled to be FA next year. (I think we can agree offering him arbitration would be a mistake). I would comsider trading him unless he would agree to a 1 or 2 year extention around 5-6 mil with incentives for wins, maybe another one for 25 starts, and things of that nature. Let someone else overpay.

I hope to be buyers at the deadline, but Ubaldo is having a great year to really maximize his trade value.

Just to note, Jimenez has the option to void his 2014 option because he was traded in the middle of his deal. If he spins 15 more starts like his last 4/5, then he may do that looking for a multi-year deal.

dazindiansfanuk wrote:Just to note, Jimenez has the option to void his 2014 option because he was traded in the middle of his deal. If he spins 15 more starts like his last 4/5, then he may do that looking for a multi-year deal.

Who would've thought we'd be having this discussion a month ago?

The entry on Cots reads: 2014 option only if 2013 option is exercised (may void 2014 if traded). The way I interpret it is 2014 gets voided if his 2013 option isn't picked up. Since we took the option for this year I thought he would stay with us. Maybe can void 2014 if we trade his this year? I dunno - not a lawyer.

I've tried 'em all, I really have, and the only church that truly feeds the soul, day in, day out, is the Church of Baseball.~~~Annie Savoy-"Bull Durham"

dazindiansfanuk wrote:Just to note, Jimenez has the option to void his 2014 option because he was traded in the middle of his deal. If he spins 15 more starts like his last 4/5, then he may do that looking for a multi-year deal.

Who would've thought we'd be having this discussion a month ago?

The entry on Cots reads: 2014 option only if 2013 option is exercised (may void 2014 if traded). The way I interpret it is 2014 gets voided if his 2013 option isn't picked up. Since we took the option for this year I thought he would stay with us. Maybe can void 2014 if we trade his this year? I dunno - not a lawyer.

Some fans have asked about the contract situation of Ubaldo Jimenez. He and the Indians both have an option for 2014, meaning both would have to agree on the $8 million salary. That's doubtful, so odds are he will become a free agent.

Prosecutor wrote:Considering that Myers and his $7 million will be off the books, exercising that $8 million option on Ubaldo would be a no-brainer.

Why?

I don't know if Kazmir will hold up long enough to be signed for next season, but I'd be shocked if Bauer wasn't in the 2014 Opening Day rotation. One of Carrasco/Kluber can put up the numbers Ubaldo will end up with this season, in all likelihood anyway.

Indians add $10.5M in the raises to Swisher and Bourn. That Myers money is already accounted for. Santana in line for a $3M raise, and likely Masterson as well in his final year of arbitration. Cabrera gets $3.5M more

Extra $20M in contract raises already. They'll probably try to re-sign Smith for two years as well. I can't see them keeping Ubaldo unless he pitches like this the rest of the way. And even then, they have internal options.

A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe

He has had great stuff last 4/5 starts, but let not forget this dude has a 5.32era in a indians uniform. Wouldn't it be interisting to grab a pitching prospect and see what he can do in 2014 and 15 when our young pitchers have some more seasoning...Still tough to trade Ubaldo and not give the impression of punting a perfectly good season.Damned if you do damned if you don't.

Wouldn't want to give him Long-Term contract worth big bucks

"Cocaine is a hell of a drug" - Originated from a famous skit in Dave Chappelle's "Chappelle's Show". The skit would portray Rick James, usually high on cocaine, preforming doing crazy and stupid things, such as smacking Charlie Murphy in the face. Rick James would frequently explain away his actions by saying "Cocaine is a hell of a drug".