Third Eye OSINT publishes enlightened commentary on geopolitics. The articles will always reflect a pro-American personal viewpoint, because the author is a loyal citizen of the United States of America. This blog is a wholly-owned project of Alfidi Capital.

Sunday, July 28, 2013

I've checked out a few more analytical tools for my bag of tricks. These links are cool because they help me understand the world we live in today. They appear in the Intelligence Links in the column on the right-hand side of this blog.

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute tracks military spending and arms shipments worldwide. Check out their database links. They even track subnational groups. I plan to use this site to cross-reference military spending with other categories of military activity to see which country's military gets the most bang for the buck when influencing world affairs.

Reporters Without Borders publishes the Press Freedom Index that ranks countries by how much they respect their fourth estate (read up on the legacy of the French Revolution of you need that term defined). I'm disappointed that the US is ranked #32 in 2013. I'm doing my part to move the needle higher by blogging as much as possible in honor of the First Amendment.

The Economist Intelligence Unit publishes a bunch of good stuff, but their annual Democracy Index just plain rocks. A lot of EIU's services cost serious bucks but the Democracy Index is free. I like freebies. I don't like paying for other things I can get for free just by searching the web.

Big Data isn't just for big corporations. Anyone in free societies can use it to make better policy and hold governments accountable for their actions.

Turkey is clearly at a cultural crossroads. On one hand, its political elite has clearly moved the country in a more Islamic direction and taken steps to mute the military's role as guardian of the government's secular orientation. On the other hand, the recent demonstrations against development of Taksim Gezi Park reveal that a remnant of the society is not willing to go peacefully into an ultra-conservative future.

Modern Turkey had all of the outward trappings of a tolerant society and reliable Western security partner throughout the second half of the 20th century. Turkey has sought EU membership for over a quarter-century. The Erdogan government's embrace of conservative moral codes that align explicitly with Islam jeopardize its pursuit of that membership. Turkey even developed security ties with Israel; it threw that productive relationship away with tacit support for Gaza blockade runners. Turkish-Israeli reconciliation is still a possibility, and unofficial cooperation against common threats (Syria, Iran) is always a possibility.

The reconstruction plans for the park involve erecting a shopping mall modeled after the Halil Pasha Artillery Barracks. This is more than a post-modern tribute to Turkey's Ottoman past. Every major policy initiative of the Erdogan government, from its stance on public morals to its support for anti-Assad rebels in Syria, is a step towards Turkey's reassertion of its pre-Ataturk identity as the center of the Caliphate. Turkey's political elite is ready to embrace Islam and regional interventionism and is willing to drag its secular professionals along for the ride. The national identity crisis is ready for resolution, one way or the other.

Erdogan's statesmanship on peacefully resolving the Kurdish issue has probably endeared him to many Turks who are weary of years of unrest. Turkey's international standing and internal business climate will be enhanced by stability in its Kurdish regions, park protests notwithstanding. Secular Turks outside Istanbul would be hard-pressed to ignore this significant diplomatic progress just to continue sympathizing with protestors.

The protestors in Istanbul have a limited window of opportunity to make their case for moderation to the rest of Turkey's secular middle class. The Erdogan government has demonstrated its willingness to disperse the protestors and the rest of Turkey probably won't mind so long as the economy delivers prosperity. The race between worsening economic data and a government determined to bring order is still on. The Erdogan government can make non-fatal concessions on cultural issues that would address several of the capital protestors' grievances and split much of the national opposition. That may be enough to calm things down without a hard crackdown that would further damage the economy.

Thursday, July 18, 2013

Pandemics are problems for nation-state legitimacy. Strong states with mature public health programs can handle them well. Weak states distracted by poverty, illiteracy, environmental degradation, social unrest, and insurgencies could destabilize or even disintegrate in the face of a pandemic. States need early warning systems for disease outbreaks and road maps for consequence management.

Weak states have all of these free resources courtesy of Uncle Sam. Use them before the next sequester hits federal spending. Poverty is no excuse for unpreparedness if developing countries wish to avoid destabilizing pandemics.

I have read the fact sheet on Power Africa, the Administration's new effort to bring economic development to a long-neglected part of the world. I am totally in favor of a smart US development effort in Africa to counter China's huge influence. Power Africa is interagency and leverages the private sector; so far so good. Reading the list of agencies involved has started to make me wonder how the US got so many.

US Agency for International Development (USAID): This is the oldest official home for foreign aid in the US Government and used to be part of the State Department. I never understood why it was carved out into a separate agency. The Executive Office of the President and National Security Council have a span of control that is not infinitely wide. Every separate agency complicates Cabinet-level accountability, appropriations, reporting, auditing, you name it. If I could wave a magic wand over Washington DC, I'd put USAID back in State so the White House can more easily pin the rose on a lead agency for an interagency development project.

Millennium Challenge Corporation: This one is the youngest of the agencies, less than a decade old and designed exclusively to fight poverty. I just don't understand why it's not part of USAID. It has the same mission!

I want Power Africa to succeed. I also want its enabling agencies to support their private sector partners effectively. IMHO that will require, at some point, a review of whether some of the federal executive agencies involved are duplicative and need to be merged. That in itself would set a good example for our African partners who look to the US as a model of transparency and efficiency.

The US government makes an earnest effort to reach out to potential enablers of our country's strategic interests. The Department of State has multiple organs that support this effort. The Office of Commercial and Business Affairs has a role to play in developing business contacts overseas. Given the broad scope of its mission, I wonder how the office measures its effectiveness.

I also wonder about the effectiveness of small outreach efforts that partner with DOS. Business for Diplomatic Action (parent of the World Citizens Guide) closed in 2010 but played a leading role in partnering with DOS on programs such as an exchange program that benefited exactly 28 non-US entrepreneurs. I'd like to compare this achievement to the workload of a typical big-city SBA office that helps hundreds of entrepreneurs each year. I just don't have the data. This is all food for thought.

I do not have a firm grasp of how well DOS integrates its commercial support mission with other federal agencies. If DOS targets its commercial outreach efforts in support of goals outlined in the National Security Strategy for 2010, then policymakers will know those programs are at least headed in the correct direction.

BTW, those Americans who wish to engage in their own entrepreneurial diplomacy have plenty of options. The US Center for Citizen Diplomacy has a searchable database of international affairs organizations that accept volunteers.

Followers

Yet Another Disclaimer

Third Eye OSINT is written and maintained exclusively by Anthony J. Alfidi. The opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not represent the official or unofficial position of any government entity. The information presented here is drawn solely from unclassified, open sources available to the general public. In other words, I wrote this stuff.