Rule of thumb: If Walker wins by six points or more, Romney’s the favorite in November

posted at 4:51 pm on June 1, 2012 by Allahpundit

So says John Ellis, writing at BuzzFeed. I’m not sure I believe it but I really want to believe it, and darn it, that’s good enough to justify a post:

Is there any chance that Barrett can pull off an upset? Probably not. If he was leading in the polls, President Obama would be campaigning for him this weekend. The fact that the president is not campaigning for him this weekend means two things: (1) Barrett is behind in Team Obama polling by more than the margin of error, and (2) a presidential appearance would not provide enough of a lift for Barrett to make the difference. So, using the Obama test, Mr. Barrett is a goner.

The key to this election, however, is not really whether Governor Walker wins. More or less everyone expects him to do that. The key is how much he wins by. The crude calculation is this: Walker defeat equals certain Obama win in November. Walker win by 1-5 percentage points equals very close presidential general election (nationally). A Walker win by 6 points or more equals Mitt Romney is the favorite to win in November.

Remember, he says, David Prosser won reelection to the Wisconsin Supreme Court last year by a margin of less than half a point, which means if Walker’s lead holds up then Wisconsin’s already a lot more GOP-friendly than it was 12 months ago. Or, actually, does it just mean that passions over the collective bargaining law have cooled sufficiently to restore Wisconsin to the status quo? Walker also defeated Tom Barrett by six points in 2010, after all, and Obama defeated McCain by 14 points there just two years before that. (He won’t match that margin this time against Romney after four years of Hopenchange dreck, but he doesn’t have to. Everyone expects this election to be closer, including O.) What we’re really trying to gauge here is what, precisely, Tuesday’s election is a referendum on. Is it a referendum on Walker’s overall performance, including/especially the recent good news in Wisconsin about jobs? Is it a referendum specifically on the collective bargaining law or, in Ellis’s words, the “Blue Social Model”? Is it a referendum on The One? Obama’s worried that it’ll be seen as a referendum on him if he shows up there and Barrett crashes and burns, since that’ll kick off a new round of bad press about how he’s in trouble and no state is safe, etc etc. That’s why he’s staying away. More from Byron York:

The new poll, from Marquette University Law School, shows Walker leading Barrett 52 percent to 45 percent. Beyond the horse race, the Marquette pollsters also asked about specific elements of Walker’s reforms. It turns out some of the key elements of those policies — reforms Obama strongly opposed — are now winning the day…

At the same time, the Marquette pollsters found something quite different in the presidential race. Likely voters in Wisconsin favor the president over Mitt Romney, 51 percent to 43 percent, and Obama has a 55 percent favorable rating, to Romney’s 40 percent.

Some might question how voters could favor both Scott Walker and Barack Obama, but that’s the way it is, at least right now. “I think the numbers are probably right,” says Charlie Sykes, a popular conservative radio host in Wisconsin, “which suggests that 1) Walker is doing awfully well, 2) Tom Barrett is a remarkably bad candidate, and 3) Wisconsin remains purple, leaning blue.”

How should we parse those results? Wisconsinites are embracing Walker and his reforms — and yet The One is still comfortably ahead of Romney. Is that because they don’t know Mitt well yet or because they’re still holding out hope for an economic recovery? (This poll was taken before today’s jobs report.) Or is it because the recall election, which is sui generis, really doesn’t have much bellwether value for a national presidential election? Maybe there’s some critical mass of Obama-leaning centrist Wisconisinites that’s simply tired of recall nonsense and willing to give Walker the chance to finish his term, knowing that if he loses it’ll kick off an endless round of tit-for-tat partisan recall battles in years ahead. There’s no question that the GOP’s organizational efforts for Romney in Wisconsin have been helped by the recall “dry run,” but as for the national implications of Walker winning, I just don’t know. Someone convince me. I want to believe.

For your viewing pleasure, here’s Tom Barrett at his rally in Milwaukee today. He needed a Democratic president who wasn’t a disaster on jobs, so he had one option.

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How should we parse those results? Wisconsinites are embracing Walker and his reforms — and yet The One is still comfortably ahead of Romney. Is that because they don’t know Mitt well yet or because they’re still holding out hope for an economic recovery? (This poll was taken before today’s jobs report.)

This is just my gut feeling, but I get the impression that the reason the polls are so close nationally and favoring Obama in what should be more competitive swing states is that a lot of voters are holding out til the last possible minute before admitting to themselves that they backed a disastrous candidate in 2008. The same thing happened with Carter in 1980.

Obviously Romney still has to close the deal with these voters, but thus far he seems to be up to the challenge.

This is just my gut feeling, but I get the impression that the reason the polls are so close nationally and favoring Obama in what should be more competitive swing states is that a lot of voters are holding out til the last possible minute before admitting to themselves that they backed a disastrous candidate in 2008. The same thing happened with Carter in 1980.

Obviously Romney still has to close the deal with these voters, but thus far he seems to be up to the challenge.

Doughboy on June 1, 2012 at 4:56 PM

Nah, none of those people are going to admit they’re not voting for Obama, or that voting for Obama the first time was a big mistake. They’ll just not vote or vote against him in November. That way they don’t have to be a “racist”.

Nah, none of those people are going to admit they’re not voting for Obama, or that voting for Obama the first time was a big mistake. They’ll just not vote or vote against him in November. That way they don’t have to be a “racist”.

Browncoatone on June 1, 2012 at 5:00 PM

Well I did say they’d admit it to themselves. They don’t have to tell a pollster or even friends or family for all I care. As long as they’re no longer in denial once they step into that booth in November.

Those bussed in union folks must have been wondering what the heck Clenis was talking about. Pledge of allegience, kids voting in the future, guilt tripping them as coercion to vote. He mailed that one in.

I found something that won’t convince you. According to Matt Lewis posted at the Daily Caller Walker’s success with job creation could convince Wisconsinites that the economy’s okay so they’ll vote for Obama, but Ofilcher will try to claim credit for Walker’s job creation success–cuz he’s got nothin’ on his own.

The real predictive power of Wisconsin is going to be in the exit polling. Specifically, it should give us a fairly good idea what turnout ratio between republicans, democrats, and independents, we should expect next fall.

If the turnout looks closer to the 2010 turnout, then you can kiss Obama goodbye, even if Romney loses Wisconsin. If it’s closer to 2008, we’re all in deep trouble. Thankfully the later scenario seems pretty unlikely at this point.

1. Walker wins by at LEAST 5 points. (Chris Matthews has apoplectic total meltdown on air, rushed to hospital, discoverd to be very lifelike robot, only infinitely dumber than the ‘Bishop’ model in ‘Aliens’.)

2. I don’t think I’ve gotten a chance to say it yet this week, so: This year’s Presidential election is gonna be a replay of Carter v. Reagan; Bank it.

“Who is this narcissist?! He did nothing before he was elected! All of a sudden he comes along and thinks he is the golden boy! He’s going to save the nation and everybody! Based on what!? He never did anything before!”

Or, actually, does it just mean that passions over the collective bargaining law have cooled sufficiently to restore Wisconsin to the status quo? Walker also defeated Tom Barrett by six points in 2010, after all, and Obama defeated McCain by 14 points there just two years before that.

You are missing the forest for the trees AP. They went for Obama in 2008, and then Walker in 2010. Not the other way around. I see a trend. Take off your RINO blinders, heh.

If it was cooled off to “status quo” walker wouldn’t be winning a recall right now, he’d be hounded out of office.

Bill Clinton plays the ‘good sport’. He and Hillary pray for Obama’s loss. They’ll never forgive the impertinent novice.

Schadenfreude on June 1, 2012 at 5:09 PM

Bill still gets his digs in. Yesterday he pointed out that Romney had a “sterling” business record and said the fact that he’d been both a successful governor and a successful business man clearly shows that he is qualified to be president (as contrasted to Barry Obama, who was never a governor, never ran a business, and is an economic illiterate who would have been getting Bill’s coffee a few years ago).

Only 2 points away from knocking President Obama below 50% in Wisconsin before the results of the Scott Walker recall and before today’s economic report and stock market collapse?

When people come back to work on monday and look at the disaster in their 401Ks, I really don’t see how they continue to support President Obama. Then Scott Walker wins on Tuesday… Then Mitt Romney at some point campaigns with Scott Walker…

Some might question how voters could favor both Scott Walker and Barack Obama…

I don’t question such things anymore. A significant portion of the electorate is not too bright, very confused, pretty much unpredictable, and completely comfortable with cognitive dissonance, not even knowing they have the problem. Such people can change their mind tomorrow and change it back again the day after over something trivial or for no discernible reason at all other than “feeling” different that day.

Hard core lefties, socialist, and libs at least have the virtue of being consistently wrong about almost everything. The wish-washy types not so much.

I think the analysis by Ellis could be correct. If Walker matches or exceeds his 2010 win despite the year and a half effort to derail him and his agenda and recall him, an all-out effort by the unions and Democrats in a fight they correctly see as a battle for their very survival, it means Romney has a real shot at Wisconsin in the fall.

There are scenarios where Obama could win without Wisconsin mathematically, but they don’t have any practical reality to them. There just isn’t going to be an election where the GOP wins Wisconsin but loses Ohio and Virginia. Not gonna happen.

So far, no one is predicting that 2012 will be a wave year for anyone.

But, what all the prognosticators are trying to determine is the answer to one simple question. Is 2012 going to be more like 2010, or 2008?

The answer to that question may well determine who is being inaugurated next January.

If Walker matches or exceeds his six point 2010 win over Barrett, then it’s reasonable to make the argument that 2012 will be very much like 2010. In a 2010 environment, or even anything close, Romney would have to be considered the favorite.

I’m not sure the logic holds up 100%. It’s still just one data point, after all. But it will be a significant data point.

A good question is what was Obama’s approval rating in 2010 in Wisconsin vs. what it is now. You should probably add the difference there to the difference between Walker-Barrett II to get an idea of where the country (or at least Wisconsin) is regarding today vs. 2010.

A good question is what was Obama’s approval rating in 2010 in Wisconsin vs. what it is now. You should probably add the difference there to the difference between Walker-Barrett II to get an idea of where the country (or at least Wisconsin) is regarding today vs. 2010.

Is that 6% spread before or after the “Oh, look, another voting machine in the closet we forgot to count.”…”Oh, look, there were ballots under the back seat of my car.”…”Hello, Elections Board? You know we said 734 in Xxxxx Precinct? We meant 1734.” ??

Sui Generis is right. Imagine you live in Wisconsin, imagine you are not that political, as I think most folks aren’t.

Wouldn’t you be SICK of this stuff by now?

Wouldn’t you be DETERMINED to vote for Walker, DEFEAT the recall, because, even as unpolitical as you are, you are sufficiently sentient to KNOW that the only way to prevent MORE of this CR*P is to END IT NOW?

So, sure, it’s easy for me to see how some soft lib moderate would still be loving the big O and supporting Walker in the recall.

explain to me what a yes walker, and no romney/yes BHO voter looks like? does that animal really exist in nature? who are these people?

t8stlikchkn on June 1, 2012 at 4:56 PM

My guess is around 7-8% of WI residents are truly “swing” voters and they universally believe the recall is both illegitimate and a big waste of taxpayer dollars. But it doesn’t mean, however, these same voters have now become partisan Republicans for the rest of their lives. They’re voting against the recall more than they are against Liberalism.

I absolutely believe though that the shennanigans the Unions have pulled have made WI a much “redder” state than it was before and that Romney has the best shot of any Republican Presidential candidate to win there since Reagan.

One thing to remember before Tuesday. People here are really, really, really mad at those who forced the recalls. You cannot understand the feeling of most voters unless your here. Polls, other survey methods pass this by. The only way to measure it, is to do face to face questions. Something that is impossible in the time allowed.(and it would be cost too much.) The vast majority here in Wisconsin are focused on the recalls. The presidential election is out of sight, out of mind. Once Tuesday is over, then Wisconsin will turn to November.(If I were both candidates, I would avoid this state like the plague for a month or two. Let people calm and cool down a bit.)

Oh, the number of swing votes is much higher than other states.We are talking like 15% to 30% the the voters. Depending on state or national elections, since most swing voters are traditionally single issue types who as a rule do not vote in state wide races. Given the import of Tuesdays vote I expect they will be fully deployed.