Wednesday, 27 May 2015

Unemployment, a reliable supply of electricity,
and poverty are the most important problems that Nigerians want their
government to address, with crime/security following in fourth place, the
latest Afrobarometer survey shows.

While incoming President Muhammadu Buhari must
contend with immediate fuel, cash, and power crises, citizens’ expressed
priorities can help inform the administration’s agenda for the next four years.

The Afrobarometer survey, conducted in
December 2014-January 2015, shows a continuity of economic concerns and the
growing importance of electricity and crime/security on the public agenda.

Key findings

§Unemployment, electricity, poverty, crime/security, and corruption are
the problems that citizens cite most often among their top three priorities (Figure
1).

§Unemployment has been No. 1 among citizens’ concerns in all five
rounds of Afrobarometer surveys conducted since 2003, always cited by about
half of survey respondents. Poverty and corruption have consistently ranked
among the top five problems, while education has declined slightly as a
priority (Figure 2).

§Electricity and crime/security have been rising rapidly as citizens’ priorities.
Electricity jumped from No. 12 (cited by 11% of citizens) in 2003 to No. 2 since
2008 (cited by 32% of citizens in 2014).Crime/security has moved up from No. 15 (cited by just 5% of citizens)
in 2005 to No. 4 (26%) in 2014.

Afrobarometer

Afrobarometer is a pan-African,
non-partisan research network that conducts public attitude surveys on
democracy, governance, economic conditions, and related issues across more than
30 countries in Africa. Five rounds of surveys were conducted between 1999 and 2013,
and Round 6 surveys are currently under way (2014-2015). Afrobarometer conducts
face-to-face interviews in the language of the respondent’s choice with
nationally representative samples of between 1,200 and 2,400 respondents.

Fieldwork for Afrobarometer Round 6 in
Nigeria was conducted by Practical Sampling International (PSI) in
collaboration with the CLEEN Foundation. PSI interviewed 2,400 adult Nigerians.
The sample covered 33 of Nigeria’s 36 states, as well as the Federal Capital
Territory. It was not possible to conduct interviews in three states in the
North East zone – Adamawa, Borno, and Yobe – due to unrest in the region, so
substitutions of sampling units were made from neighbouring states in the same
zone. Thus, each of the country’s zones is represented in proportion to its
share of the national population. A sample of this size yields results at the
national level with a margin of sampling error of +/-2% at a 95% confidence
level. Previous Afrobarometer surveys have been conducted in Nigeria in 2000,
2001, 2003, 2005, 2007, 2008, and 2012.

Charts

Figure 1: Most important problems that
government should address | Nigeria | 2014

Respondents were asked: In your opinion, what are the most
important problems facing this country that government should address?

(% of
respondents who cited each problem among their top three priorities)

Figure
2: Trend in ranking of most important problems | Nigeria | 2003-2014

(% of respondents who cited each problem among
their top three priorities)

Tuesday, 12 May 2015

Widespread violence and crime made
for a tense build-up to Nigeria’s recent elections, with large swaths of the
country effectively under the control of terrorists and frequent headlines
reporting armed robberies and kidnappings.

Change has been rapid and remarkable:
Within the span of a few months, virtually all territories (and hundreds of
captives) have been liberated from extremist groups, and in March and April
2015, elections conducted with minimal disruption turned the incumbent party
out of office after 16 years.

Still, security is a top priority for
the new government assuming power on May 29, and citizens’ experiences and
perceptions with regard to public safety and extremist activities in their
country may be valuable in setting the new agenda.

This analysis is based on
Afrobarometer survey data collected in December 2014, reflecting views before
the recent successes in fighting armed extremism, but informed by long
experience of the country’s security challenges.

Afrobarometer
survey

Afrobarometer is an African-led, non-partisan research
network that conducts public attitude surveys on democracy, governance,
economic conditions, and related issues across more than 30 countries in
Africa. Five rounds of surveys were conducted between 1999 and 2013, and Round
6 surveys are currently under way (2014-2015). Afrobarometer conducts
face-to-face interviews in the language of the respondent’s choice with
nationally representative samples.

The Afrobarometer team in Nigeria, led by Practical
Sampling International (PSI) in collaboration with the CLEEN Foundation,
interviewed 2,400 adult Nigerians between 5 and 27 December 2014. (For 80
cases, supplementary interviews were conducted on 18 and 19 January 2015.)A sample of
this size yields national-level results with a margin of sampling error of
+/-2% at a 95% confidence level. (Note: Due to rounding, the sum of category
percentages reported below may not always total 100%.)

The sample covered 33 of Nigeria’s 36 states, as well as
the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). It was not possible to conduct interviews
in three states in the North East zone – Adamawa, Borno, and Yobe – due to
unrest in the region, so substitutions of sampling units were made from
neighbouring states in the same zone. Thus, each of the country’s zones is
represented in proportion to its share of the national population.

§Almost
four in 10 Nigerians (39%) do not feel safe in their neighbourhoods. One-third
(33%) say they feared crime in their homes.

§Almost
one-third (31%) of Nigerians experienced theft from their homes in the year
preceding the survey, and 20% say they were physically attacked.

§More
than half of Nigerians say the government has been largely unresponsive and
ineffective in fighting the menace of armed extremists.

§One-third or
more of Nigerians believe that “most” or “all” senior officials in the federal
government, members of the Nigerian military, members of the National Assembly,
Nigerian Muslims, and international extremist groups are involved in supporting
and assisting extremist
groups in Nigeria.

§Poverty
and unemployment are seen as the main reasons people join extremist groups.

§Two-thirds
of Nigerians oppose dividing the country as a solution to the challenges of
extremism.

Perceptions
of insecurity

Fear is a reality for significant proportions of Nigerians, not only in
unknown environments but also in their communities and homes. About four in 10 Nigerians
(39%) say they felt unsafe while walking in their neighbourhoods at least once
during the 12 months preceding the survey (Figure 1), while one-third
(33%) say they feared crime in their homes (Figure 2).

Figure 1: Feeling
unsafe in the neighbourhood | 2014

Respondents
were asked: Over the
past year, how often, if ever, have you or anyone in your family felt unsafe walking in your neighbourhood? (%)

Figure 2: Fear
of crime in the home | 2014

Respondents were asked: Over the past year, how often, if
ever, have you or anyone in your family feared crime in your own home? (%)

Access
to security services

To better
understand factors that influence perceptions of insecurity, we explored
Nigerians’ access to security services. While conducting Afrobarometer surveys,
interviewers are asked to record the presence of various services in or within
walking distance of the communities where the survey is conducted. Findings show
that police stations are accessible in 62% of surveyed communities (Figure 3) –
less common than schools (96%) and marketplaces (88%).

Among evidence
of security services, the police are the most visible, with officers or police
vehicles sighted in 57% of the sampling areas (Figure 4). Private or community security
arrangements such as roadblocks or booms are about as common as the military (reported
in 29% and 28%, respectively, of surveyed communities).

Figure 3: Access
to social services | 2014

Interviewers
were asked to record:
Are the following services present in the primary sampling unit / enumeration area
or in easy walking distance? (%)

Figure 4: Presence
of security services | 2014

Interviewers were asked to record: In the primary sampling unit /
enumeration area, did you (or any of your colleagues) see:

a.Any
policemen or police vehicles?

b.Any
soldiers or army vehicles?

c.Any
roadblocks set up by police or army?

d.Any
customs checkpoints?

e.Any
roadblocks or booms set up by private security providers or by the local
community?

(%)

Experience
of crime

Almost
one-third (31%) of Nigerians say that things were stolen from their homes at
least once during the 12 months preceding the survey, including 6% who say they
experienced theft at least three times. One in five respondents (20%) was physically attacked (Figure 5).

Most Nigerians (71%) say the government
is performing “very badly” (39%) or “fairly badly” (32%) on the issue of
reducing crime in the country (Figure 6).

Figure 5: Experience
of crime | 2014

Respondents were asked: During the past year, have you or anyone in
your family:

a)Had something stolen from your
house?

b)Been physically attacked? (%)

Figure 6: Rating
of the government’s efforts to reduce crime | 2014

Respondents were asked: How well or badly would you say
the current government is handling the following matters, or haven’t you heard
enough to say: Reducing crime? (%)

Armed
extremism in Nigeria

Assessment
of government response

When asked to assess the government’s
responsiveness to emergency situations, Nigerians rated the response to disease
outbreaks more positively than the response to insecurity (Figure 7). More than
half (51%) of Nigerians say the government has been “not very responsive” or
“not at all responsive” to the menace of armed extremists.

Figure 7: Government
responsiveness to emergencies | 2014

Respondents
were asked: In your
opinion, how responsive do you think the federal government has been to the
following emergencies? (%)

Similarly, a majority (56%) rate
the Nigerian government’s efforts to fight armed extremists as “not very
effective” or “not at all effective” (Figure 8).

Respondents were asked: How effective do you think the
Nigerian government has been in its efforts to address the problem of armed
extremists in this country? (%)

Respondents in the South South region express the highest level of
satisfaction with the efforts of the government to fight armed extremists; only
40% in the South South rate the government’s performance as ineffective,
compared to 70% in the South West. In the troubled North East region, which has
experienced the worst of the armed extremism, 52% rate the government’s efforts
as ineffective. Men and women are about equal in their assessments of the
government’s performance against armed extremists.

Survey findings
show that significant numbers of Nigerians believe that a broad cross-section
of their compatriots are sympathetic to extremist groups. One-third or more of
Nigerians believe that “most” or “all” senior officials in the federal government,
members of the Nigerian military, members of the National Assembly, Nigerian
Muslims, and international extremist groups are involved in “supporting and
assisting the extremist groups that have launched attacks and kidnappings in
Nigeria” (Figure 10).While traditional rulers are perceived to harbour the
least sympathies, only 26% of respondents say that “none” of them support
extremist groups.

Figure 10: Support
for extremist groups in Nigeria | 2014

Respondents were asked: How many of the following people do you think
are involved in supporting and assisting the extremist groups that have
launched attacks and kidnappings in Nigeria, or haven’t you heard enough about
them to say? (%)

Asked what is the main reason why
some Nigerians support extremist groups, the factors mentioned most often are
corruption or a desire for personal enrichment (cited by 29% of respondents) and
a quest for personal power (22%) (Figure 11).

However, when asked why people join
such groups, respondents are most likely to cite poverty (31%) and unemployment/lack
of opportunities (26%) (Figure 12). Only 17% of respondents say that religious
beliefs are the main reason that people join extremist groups.

Figure 11: Reasons
why people support extremist groups | 2014

Respondents were asked: In your opinion, what is the main
reason why some people in Nigeria support and assist these armed extremist
groups? (%)

Figure 12: Reasons
why people join extremist groups | 2014

Respondents were asked:In your opinion,
what is the main reason why some Nigerians join extremist groups?

Ways to fight extremism

When
asked which strategies the government could adopt to be more effective in its
fight against extremism, the leading suggestions are strengthening the military
response (cited by 28% of respondents) and improving the economy to create jobs
(19%) (Figure 13).

Figure 13: Suggested
strategies to fight armed extremism | 2014

Respondents were asked:In your opinion, what do
you think would be the best way for the government to be more effective in addressing
the problem of armed extremists in our country? (%)

Considering the drastic “solution” of dividing Nigeria in two should
armed extremism persist, two-thirds (66%) of Nigerians oppose such a step,
while 30% support it (Figure 14).

Figure 14: Views
on dividing Nigeria if extremism persists | 2014

Respondents
were asked:Which of the following statements is
closest to your view? Choose Statement 1 or Statement 2. (%)

Statement 1: Nigeria
should remain united as one country even if the extremist groups continue to
cause problems.

Statement 2: If the problems
caused by the extremist groups cannot be resolved, Nigeria should be split into
two countries.

Conclusion

Insecurity and violent extremism will be high priorities for Nigeria’s
incoming government. Although the Afrobarometer Round 6 survey was conducted
before recent successes in fighting extremist violence, the perceptions and
experiences reflected in its findings provide a rich menu of citizen feedback
for the government to work with in setting its new agenda.

Nengak Daniel Gondyi is program manager for the CLEEN Foundation in Lagos, Nigeria. Email:
nengak.daniel@cleen.org

Peter Lewis is
associate professor and director of the African studies program, School of
Advanced International Studies (SAIS), Johns Hopkins University in Washington,
D.C. Email: plewis18@jhu.edu

Afrobarometer is produced collaboratively by social scientists from more
than 30 African countries. Coordination is provided by the Center for
Democratic Development (CDD) in Ghana, the Institute for Justice and
Reconciliation (IJR) in South Africa, the Institute for Development Studies
(IDS) at the University of Nairobi in Kenya, and the Institute for Empirical
Research in Political Economy (IREEP) in Benin. Michigan State University (MSU)
and the University of Cape Town (UCT) provide technical support to the network.

Core support for Afrobarometer Rounds 5 and 6 has been provided by the
UK’s Department for International Development (DFID), the Mo Ibrahim
Foundation, the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (SIDA),
the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), and the World
Bank.