Peak Oil, Petrodollars and Climate Change Apathy

Peak Oil and a developing trend to switch international oil trading from the weakening U.S. dollar to the Euro (€) may fuel more oil grabs, economic collapse, and further disregard for climate change

World governments, many of whom currently pay lip service to the present and future problems associated with a warming planet, are eager to add to these woes by arguing (and perhaps soon fighting?) over anticipated new oil discoveries as the arctic ice continues to shrink. We know burning fossil fuels causes global warming, but we are tripping over ourselves to find more to burn. This makes it expedient to review some of the factors involved in our continued free-for-all over oil. Some of what follows may surprise.

It is now generally accepted that the invasion of Iraq was prompted, not by legitimate concerns about weapons of mass destruction (WMDs), but over a desire to take control over Iraq’s oil reserves (there was never much doubt about this outside the United States). Iraq holds the second largest proven reserves in the world, next to Saudi Arabia. What is not commonly known, however, is that prior to the Iraqi invasion, Saddam Hussein had already used an economic form of WMD on the U.S., and one that set a precedent the superpower could ill-afford to ignore. Hussein’s action is regarded by some as a primary reason for the Iraqi invasion.

Hussein Targets U.S. with Economic ‘WMD’

More than two years prior to the U.S. engagement in Iraq, a nation struggling with more than a decade of trade sanctions after its occupation of Kuwait (this occupation also largely centred around oil), Saddam Hussein made what at the time looked like economic suicide by switching from trading oil in dollars, to using the Euro instead. There was no financial gain to be had from the move, in fact quite the opposite. The Euro was at a low ebb — it was purely an act of economic aggression, and one of the only remaining weapons the beleaguered nation could wield against the mighty U.S. of A.

From November 2000:

Iraq is going ahead with its plans to stop using the U.S. dollar in its oil business in spite of warnings the move makes no financial sense.

Baghdad this week insisted on and received UN approval to sell oil through the oil-for-food program for euros only after 6 November. Iraq had threatened to suspend all oil exports — about 5 percent of the world’s total — if the body turned down the request.

The move comes despite repeated cautions that Baghdad’s departure from the oil industry standard of the dollar will cost the country millions in currency conversion fees. UN officials have said Iraq will have to reduce the price of its crude oil by about 10 cents a barrel in order to compensate buyers for the additional costs. — RadioFreeEurope

Iraq’s threat to stop exporting oil had to be taken seriously. The U.N. approved Hussein’s desire to move away from the dollar — which he regarded as the currency of an “enemy state“. Why would Hussein further weaken his embattled nation by taking such a hit on oil sales? The dollar/euro exchange was considerably less favourable than it is today. In fact, it was predicted Hussein’s decision would cost his country around $270 million dollars.

Why a Switch from the Petrodollar to the Petroeuro is a Danger to the U.S.

In the early 1970s, a time when U.S. overspending on the Vietnam war had significantly depleted U.S. gold reserves, president Nixon removed the gold guarantee on the dollar — effectively making the dollar’s value dependent on demand in the global economy. After this time, money was essentially produced at the cost of just paper and ink — some refer to it as a “faith based” currency — but strong demand for the dollar, particularly for oil transactions, made this a workable situation, at least for a time….

Let me explain. After U.S. domestic oil production peaked in the late 1960s, the nation became increasingly dependent on oil imports. But rather than purchasing oil in a foreign currency, the U.S. negotiated with Saudi Arabia so that all oil transactions would be in U.S. dollars. In return Saudi Arabia was to be assured supplies of arms and assistance to help keep the Kingdom’s rulers in power. The Saudis agreed, and from this time on oil transactions worldwide were almost completely made with the greenback. The ‘petrodollar’ was born. Whether Saudi Arabia was selling to the U.S., or Venezuela was selling to Korea, etc., if you bought and sold oil it was in U.S. currency.

For the U.S., over the last forty years, this has been an absolute boon, and one that has helped create the energy/consumption-intensive U.S. lifestyle we witness today. It effectively created a ‘free shopping’ situation for U.S. consumers — like handing the nation a credit card with no limit. Here’s how it works: Country A wants to buy oil, but to do so it needs U.S. dollars. So, Country A sells products or services to the U.S., getting paper (dollars) in return. Country A then proceeds to purchase oil from Country B.

Dollars are thus required in vast sums by most of the world’s governments, and much of that money is never actually cycled back to the U.S. in the form of a purchase — i.e. the international need to keep stocks of U.S. currency ensures that the U.S. often doesn’t have to actually provide goods and services in exchange for the paper (money) it’s printing.

But, the writing is on the wall. If nations trading oil were to switch currencies en masse, the real value of the dollar will become evident, with significant adverse economic impacts for the U.S. and beyond. Their credit with the world would end, and the U.S. would begin to suffer for years of overspending. The results could make the current recession look like a walk in the park, and the world could witness a major shift in economic (and thus, military) power.

Several Nations Shifting Away from Petrodollar

As it turned out, Saddam Hussein’s shift to the euro didn’t bring the financial losses expected — as, after the defiant switch, the euro rose in value against the dollar. Hussein made a killing. Meanwhile, Iran, and other nations, took note….

Not long after, September 11 hit the U.S. psyche like a ton of bricks, and after the subsequent failure to quickly smoke Bin Laden out of Afghanistan, George Bush instead, rather promptly, turned his attention to other priorities — to what the Bush administration seems to have regarded as a bigger threat.

“Operation Iraqi Freedom” was marketed as a bid to protect the American people, and to bring freedom and prosperity to Iraqis. It has arguably done neither, but that’s quite possibly because those objectives were never the real intent. Instead, “Operation Iraqi Freedom” made its first priority to take control of, and privatise, Iraqi oil fields (amongst other things) — putting them under the control of U.S. and U.K. companies. And, wait for it, they promptly put all trading of Iraqi oil back into U.S. currency — despite the economic losses incurred as a result of the now reduced value of the dollar.

The action essentially said to other oil-trading nations, “you’re either with us, or against us”. Oil trading is to stay in U.S. dollars, or else.

The following clip shows some of the fear mongering efforts of the famously right-wing Fox News.

Some have, in the past, felt that war with Iran is inevitable, but with current U.S. and international opinion on a very messy, expensive, unjustified and illegal Iraq war turning very sour indeed, combined with a serious U.S. economic downturn, this seems unlikely.

Tensions are also rising with other Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) nations — like Venezuela that are moving in the same direction. Many suspect that Venezuela’s attempts to leave the U.S. out of the loop in oil trading caused the Bush administration to support the coup attempt against Chavez in 2002:

Venezuela, another important oil exporter, had started bartering some of its oil, thus avoiding the use of the dollar, and was encouraging OPEC to do likewise — and the US was widely suspected in having played a part in the attempted coup against the Venezuelan president, Hugo Chavez. — Feasta.org

‘Transition’ for many of these nations is key, as they all have large dollar holdings, so have a vested interest in maintaining their value. But they have to balance this with the money they’re losing as the U.S. dollar continues to slide. China is another example of such moves.

To date, the strategy has been to aggressively protect both the petrodollar and sources of oil, whilst simultaneously endeavouring to keep oil and other domestic consumption trends as business as usual (grow the economy, and with it, national debt). It has also joined other nations in a strutting, chest-beating display over anticipated fossil fuel spoils from the arctic. These strategies are a kind of preparation, like hoarding acorns for winter, but one that is wholly short-sighted — ignoring economic, resource and environmental realities. These are not only poisoned acorns, killing the planet, but they also happen to be the very last ones. This direction keeps the nation wholly dependent on a diminishing resource. People talk about oil ‘production’, but it’s not produced, any more than gold is produced. It is mined. The Bush administration intends to keep burning oil, profligately, until every drop has gone. The ‘strategy’ essentially enshrines the belief that the American lifestyle is not only non-negotiable, but also immortal. The words ‘major vulnerability’ come to mind — a disaster in the making.

The infrastructure developed in the United States, in particular, is wholly built around domestic transport and international trade. Sprawling suburbia, often miles from employment and important amenities, has led to a situation where virtually every adult requires a vehicle, simply to function. More importantly, unlike yesteryear, our food production and distribution is wholly dependent on fossil fuels. Running out of oil, with the present infrastructure, doesn’t bear thinking about. Cuba suffered this experience when communism fell in 1989 — when Russian oil-bearing ships stopped deliveries almost overnight. It was an extremely difficult transition for Cuba. It will be much harder for the United States.

American consumers are being lulled into apathy about the storm ahead — a world of ever depleting, and ever more expensive, oil. Essentially, the more money and time invested in Iraq (and, potentially, other future offensives) seriously undermines the country’s ability to prepare.

The alternative?

It is said that “direct US investments in the war, to date, could have paid for 100% of the renewable energy investments required for the coming 25 years to deal with global warming…” and “The $600 billion in direct appropriations for Iraq could have built over 9,000 wind farms of 50 mw capacity, with the total capacity to meet 25% of US electricity loads.” (Operation Iraqi Freedom and Global Warming?). But, it also needs to be recognised that every energy option — from clean energy alternatives like wind, wave, geothermal and solar, to polluting, resource hungry options like nuclear and coal — all need fossil fuel inputs to build, implement and maintain them (how do you think those enormous wind turbines get up onto the ridge?). Every gallon of oil guzzled in a race between the lights, means we’re less likely to win the race against time and escalating cost in procuring oil. Also consider that as developing countries like China continue to grow, their purchasing power enables them to outbid other nations — including the U.S. with its weakening dollar — for oil supplies.

President Bush has said his nation needs to end its addiction to oil, but beyond tying food prices to oil prices by blinkered investment in damaging ethanol plants, he seems to be contradicting himself with his actions. There is, of course, one major obstacle to alternative options — that is that the federal government’s oil industry buddies will fight it every step of the way. The mantra of business is that success means growth. Failure is not an option for these extremely powerful people. Yes, there will be a new president next year, but industrial influences won’t walk out of the Whitehouse with Bush.

The U.S., and the world, needs to simultaneously transition away from oil — not only because of climate change, but simply because it is running out. The realist in me advises that so long as there is demand, someone will try to supply. The United States, Russia, Canada, and Norway (yes, the Norway that paints such an environmentally conscious veneer over itself) and others will contest each other for the rights to new oil and gas fields. It’s a given. Not only because it’s a money machine, but also simply because we haven’t yet learned how to live without the black gold.

Time is running out on climate change. Time is running out on oil. And, it seems, time is running out on the dollar. Giving in to apathy, or despair, is not an option. There is much that can be done. Chiefly, reducing need reduces consumption. Those guys that ride bicycles in protest over the Iraq war know what they’re doing. They don’t want to contribute to, and be the reason for, the loss of American and Iraqi lives. How many more lives will be lost in the coming years if we continue to fight over the dregs of remaining oil deposits? Priorities must shift.

I’d encourage you to look at what some wise people are doing (see also). The things we need to do to prepare for peak oil and global economic woes, also happen to be the same things we need to do to not only mitigate, but also personally prepare for, the impacts of global warming.

“This is very important…. I never had a security briefing which said what some of these very serious, but conservative petroleum geologists say, which they think that, either now or before the decade’s out, we’ll reach peak oil production globally, and with the rise of China and India and others coming along, unless we can dramatically reduce our oil usage, we will run out of recoverable oil within 35 to 50 years. And that would mean that… in addition to climate change, we have a very short time in the life of the planet to turn this around…. We may not have as much oil as we think. So we need to get in gear.” — Former President Bill Clinton, Aspen Ideas Festival, July 2006

7 Responses to “Peak Oil, Petrodollars and Climate Change Apathy”

Laurin Threatt

I have been convinced from the very beginning that this whole war was about OIL! I have tried to talk to friends and even family about this, but no one wants to hear it. We have sat around with bags over our heads refusing to face the reality of what we have allowed our government to do. I want to know where the thinkers and doers are! I was part of the 60s and 70s marches, sit-ins, and protests. I realize that so many of the people who participated in these events became successful and lazy about staying on top of events. So many of the people I knew back then have become like the three monkeys: hear nothing, see nothing, say nothing… and added to it DO NOTHING! We have sat by while the present administration has thumbed its nose at the citizens and at the very foundation of our government, The Constitution. The leaders have even openly stated that they are above the law! And still we sit and do nothing! We blindly watch controlled news media feed us vanilla pudding type news: no real content, just bland, non-instigating, non-informative junk. Calling our evening news programs World News is a joke. I watch the BBC news at night in order to get real world news. We have become a nation of fat, greedy, complacent, prideless sheep. What can be done to turn this around? I used to raise sheep, and to be sure that they didn’t get into real trouble, we used to put a goat in with the flock. The goat was smarter and more agressive, and would lead the sheep out of danger. We also kept a donkey with the sheep to agressively fight whatever came after the sheep. We need a cross between a goat and a donkey to get us out of this mess! We need someone who will stand up to big oil and big business and the big bankers and say “Hell NO!” If we don’t start thinking for ourselves again and stop being led around by the nose(actually the hose, the gas hose, that is), we are going to be even further in more massive debt, so much so that our great, great grand children won’t be able to pay it off. Thank you for this very informative program. I am sending it to everyone I know. Most of them won’t read it, or if they do, they won’t believe it, but if only a few do, maybe we can get some action started to save ourselves and our country and its economy and its ecology! I look forward to reading and hearing more from you. I also find it interesting that it took a British reporter to put the facts before us. Whatever happened to the news reporters who would publish and be damned, who used to put the screws to government and big business to keep them straight? There were a few, but they have died out, and the new generation has capitulated! Thank you for standing up. Laurin Threatt

Heuristics

Have JUST been told my local library has ordered this one if for me. Am looking forward to reading it IMMEDIATELY.
I am reading Blackwater USA right now (also ordered in by my local library). It has a brilliant chapter explaining WHY Russia is butting heads with Georgia right now. As soon as the news reports hit the airways I knew it was about the oil pipeline from the Caspian Sea. The US have been meddling round those parts BIG TIME sincee the break up of the USSR. Dick Cheney visited the area 8 times in one year.
Another one to read is “The Grand Chessboard”. This Eur-asian area will be the next hot-spot for a few more decades. The area has the eqivalent reserves of the North Sea. Peak Oil is still here, but the US is busy delaying the inevitable by mopping up the reserves in this area.

Heuristics

Forget conspiracy “theories”. There is nothing “theoretical” about policy that has documented and implemented and can be sourced, verified and observed.
This is a “must read” book if you want to really know what has been happening at a geo-political level for the last 50 years.
You need to read this book so you can “read” the headlines of present and future wars and skirmishes. We all know what we are told in the MSM is utter tosh.
Read this bok and be wise to what is really happening.

Unfortunately, while this is an excellent piece of research and a seminal text, it is poorly written. It repeats itself too much and labors the point. But read it anyway.

I am so glad that about 4 months ago a knowitall at work dismissed my statement in a discussion about the Iraq war that it was REALLY about Saddam denominating oil in Euros not US dollars.
Knowitall scoffed and I went googling for documentation to back up my claim. I found this book was available – and being broke, I got the local library to get it in.
It is such a good text I fear I will have to buy it for my records.

Search old book shops and find a book “The Seven Sisters” about the Big Oil companies. It is an old book, out of print, but a must-have.

Cymon Fjell

Hello,

More fear and worrying.

Instead of wringing out every finger pointing oportunity and demotivator to positive change and replacing it with anger perhaps it might be worth looking at what is happening in clean tech right now . . . start with a Google on Terra Preta soils, Agri char and pyrolyisation.

My concern is that with current industrial carbon sequestration processes coming out of R7D that we will over shoot carbon reduction over the next thirty years to the extent that we will find ourselves having to regulate the minimum atmospheric carbon in the atmosphere to enable enough to be available to maintain trees.

gameon

john

We might run out of oil one day. Woopdy doo. I’m more concerned about making my mortgage payments. When and if this ever happens I might be interested. Untill then don’t waste my time. As far as permaculture is concerned why should I be interested? What do I have to gain? Sounds like I might become really poor if I give up my job and will have to work from sunrise to sun set to put food on the table. Thanks but no thanks. You have already lost my attention.

Paul Dore

To John.
I’m sorry to hear the frustration you are experiencing. Being at the mercy of the wheeling and dealing of big banks obviously consumes the lives of so many people. Meeting the bank repayments keeps people poor. Struggling from sunrise to sunset, sometime both parents, just to keep food on the table. The unfortunate thing is that when and if this happens, it could catch a lot of people, organisations and businesses, and social services by surprise. To quote Chris Martenson, once you turn the corner on a hockey stick shaped graph, time runs very short. A balanced and very well presented paper on exponential growth that addresses the issue of peak oil can be viewed on you tube. The presenter’s name is Dr. Albert Bartlett. It’d not be an exaggeration to say that this 1 hour could spark a long term lifestyle change in people.

My sincere wish is for you is for all the strength, luck and community support you and your family need to overcome the adversity you meet. I believe it is community that will build a better future for our children.