The Rendon Group Snapshot Report – 14 December 2015

by TRG Alerts Admin on December 21, 2015

The Rendon Group

(14DEC15)

Each week The Rendon Group’s media analysts will focus on a different continent and a different issue affecting that continent. As always, we remain available to answer any questions you may have and to provide additional information upon request. For more information regarding The Rendon Group’s products and services, please contact us at Alert@Rendon.com or +1-202-745-4900.

Turkey deploys forces to northern Iraq without Iraqi permission

Protesters burn a Turkish national flag during a demonstration against the Turkish military presence in Iraq, at Tahrir Square in central Baghdad, Iraq (Reuters)

This week’s snapshot focuses on the current diplomatic standoff between Turkey and Iraq after Ankara deployed military forces into northern Iraq without permission from the Baghdad government. Iraqi leadership has called upon international entities such as NATO and the United Nations to pressure Turkey into pulling the troops out of Iraq.

News summary of events during the week of 07DEC15 – 14DEC15

07DEC: Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu sent a letter to Iraqi Prime Minister Haider Al-Abadi, promising not to “deploy more troops to Bashika until your concerns about the matter are eased.” (Xinhua)

09DEC: A brief Turkish military statement said the raids “destroyed” targets of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, in four areas of northern Iraq, including the Qandil mountains on the Iraq-Iran border where the PKK’s leadership is based. (AP)

09DEC: Turkey called on its citizens to leave all areas of Iraq excluding Iraqi Kurdistan due to increased security risks. (AFP)

09DEC: Turkey’s prime minister Ahmet Davutoglu defended the country’s deployment of additional forces to Iraq, saying it was an “act of solidarity” with Iraq’s fight against the Islamic State group. (AP)

11DEC: Iraq’s prime minister, Haider al-Abadi, called for the immediate withdrawal of Turkish troops from northern Iraq in a national address, insisting no foreign forces are needed to fight the Islamic State group in his country. (AP)

12DEC: Several thousand protesters, most of them members of Shiite paramilitary forces, gathered in central Baghdad to demand the withdrawal of Turkish troops from Iraq. (AFP)

Sample of Third Party Validators regarding Turkey deploys forces to northern Iraq

Walter Russell Mead, Distinguished Scholar in American Strategy and Statesmanship at the Hudson Institute, James Clarke Chace Professor of Foreign Affairs and Humanities at Bard College, and Editor-at-Large of The American Interest

“And Turkey is sending a message: Forget your ‘authority,’ we’re taking matters into our own hands. Ankara’s good relationship with the Iraqi Kurds (the ‘good’ Kurds, from a Turkish point of view—for now) should help with that, because it’s hard to see who will eject them from Iraqi Kurdistan. But they’re in a precarious international legal situation, which gives the Russians, Iranians, and Iraqis options.”

Metehan Demir, Turkish journalist and expert on military affairs for Turkish Daily News and Hurriyet, recipient of the 2003 Chevening Scholarship by the British Royal Academy of Defense, joint Masters from King’s College London

“Baghdad is very well aware of the crisis between Turkey and Russia…and might seek to invite Russian troops in that area to open similar camps to help them. And it means Turkish troops and Russian troops might come face to face.”

“For Maliki and his allies in the Shia paramilitary groups, this was an opportunity to consolidate their Shia constituency…[It was also a chance to show that Abadi and his allies] cannot match their powerful reaction to the Turkish intervention.”

“Thanks to Turkish efforts, Osama al-Nujaifi has been elected as the speaker of the Iraqi parliament in Baghdad with Kurdish support, while his brother Atheel was governor of Ninevah province from 2009 until this year, albeit of a truncated province after IS took Mosul.

With this in mind, it should not be difficult to look for and find a rationale in Turkey’s latest move involving Mosul.”

Patrick Marin,Research Assistant at the Institute for the Study of War

“PM Abadi is facing intense pressure from other Shi’a political parties and Iranian-backed militias on account of [US Special Operations Forces and Turkish] deployments. Some Shi’a parties asserted that the CoR, not the Prime Minister should approve foreign deployments. The Badr Organization raised the possibility of a no-condence vote in PM Abadi. These measures will restrict PM Abadi’s ability to engage the U.S.-led coalition, the intended eect of Iranian-led forces in Iraq that seek to align Iraq with the Russian-Iranian coalition.”

Sample of open source research conducted by TRG analysts related to Turkey deploys forces to northern Iraq

1. Iraqi prime minister calls for withdrawal of Turkish troops

Media: Associated Press

Byline: N/A

Date: 11 December 2015

Iraq’s Prime Minister issued a formal request Friday for the Foreign Ministry to submit a complaint to the United Nations about the presence of Turkish troops near the IS-held city of Mosul, as Iraq’s top Shiite cleric admonished Turkey during a sermon in Karbala.

Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi asked the UN Security Council to “shoulder its responsibilities,” and order the withdrawal of the Turkish troops stationed in the country’s north at a military base near Mosul.

U.S. officials requested the call, the sources said, in which Davutoglu emphasized that Ankara stands alongside Baghdad in its struggle against Islamic State. A letter expressing these sentiments was also being delivered to the Iraqi PM by a high level Turkish delegation.

ANKARA, Turkey (AP) — Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan says Turkey has no intention of pulling out troops that are stationed in Iraq as part of a training mission to help combat the Islamic State group.

Turkey has stationed troops near Mosul since last year, but the arrival of additional troops last week sparked an uproar in Baghdad, forcing Turkey to halt the new deployment.

ISTANBUL (AP) — Turkey’s prime minister on Wednesday defended the country’s deployment of additional forces to Iraq last week, saying it was an “act of solidarity” with Iraq’s fight against the Islamic State group.

Turkey has stationed troops at a base outside Mosul since last year as part of a training mission coordinated with the Iraqi government in Baghdad. The arrival of additional Turkish forces last week, however, sparked uproar in the Iraqi capital.