Virginia governor election: Less money, more problems for Cuccinelli

Ken Cuccinelli is getting crushed on the Virginia airwaves, and it’s probably only going to get worse – a major factor thwarting the Republican’s hopes of a comeback in a governor’s race that’s been slipping away.

The left has spent $7.5 million more on television than the right up to this point, according to sources tracking the air war. The totals are $20.2 million from Democrats and affiliated outside groups to $12.7 million from the Republicans and their allies.

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The attorney general is himself a relatively weak fundraiser who never adequately cultivated the major donors he needed in the business community. He’s also running against former Democratic National Committee chairman Terry McAuliffe, one of the most prolific fundraisers in modern political history.

A string of polls showing Cuccinelli trailing — including a POLITICO poll conducted over the weekend that had him down by 9 points — has only made it harder to raise cash, while deterring some outside groups from spending as much as they might have in the year’s marquee contest.

The result is that Cuccinelli’s campaign has been making smaller and smaller ad buys over the past three weeks. He spent $1.2 million on broadcast in the final week of September, $716,000 last week and reserved $685,000 for this week.

His campaign did not dispute that it has been cutting the size of their buys.

“Terry McAuliffe became famous for one thing and one thing only: raising dough,” said communications director Richard Cullen. “We never planned a campaign where we would be competing with him dollar for dollar, but there’s no question we will have the resources necessary to win on Nov. 5.”

McAuliffe has already reserved about $2 million in airtime over the final four weeks, while Cuccinelli has not reserved any time past this week. The Democrats, for instance, claimed $700,000 of choice broadcast airtime for the final week of the race in the state’s four largest markets, according to the Virginia Public Access Project. Cuccinelli operatives note that they have placed their buys on a week-to-week basis since April.

Cuccinelli successfully raised $7.4 million between January and October 4, sources said, excluding in-kinds and direct contributions from the Republican National Committee or the Republican Governors Association.

The RGA has contributed $7.3 million to the Cuccinelli campaign in direct and in-kind expenditures.

The RNC says it is spending about $3.1 million on Virginia in 2013, mostly for field operations. That’s a marked contrast to four years ago when then-Chairman Michael Steele made winning in the Commonwealth a top priority and spent $9.2 million.

The national committee, which spends harder-to-raise federal dollars, believes it no longer makes sense for them to pay for 30-second ads. Party officials said they have about as many staffers and offices in Virginia as during last year’s presidential campaign. They are reexamining how they gather data and stepping up minority engagement.

The RGA has stepped up to fill some of the vacuum left by less RNC spending. The governor’s association already spent $2.1 million more this year than it did in all of 2009. [The Democratic Governors Association has given $5 million directly to McAuliffe.]

The disparity doesn’t mean the race is over for Cuccinelli, but it’s an enormous obstacle in a race that’s already tilted heavily against him. The simple reality is that TV ads matter a lot in a big state, where a limited number of voters get to see the candidates in person and with broadcast media that many Republicans see as predisposed to favor Democrats.

McAuliffe himself has already put $14.5 million on TV, followed by the Democratic Party of Virginia with $3 million, billionaire environmentalist Tom Steyer’s group NextGen with $1.5 million, Planned Parenthood with $900,000 and the National Education Association with $290,000.

Republicans have spent $12.7 million so far, including $7.8 million from the Cuccinelli campaign. The RGA directly bought $3.4 million in airtime, followed by Citizens United with $600,000, the National Rifle Association with $400,000, the Virginia Principles Fund with $350,000, Ending Spending Now with $175,000 and Fight for Tomorrow with $40,000.

This helps explain why 56 percent of likely voters hold an unfavorable view of Cuccinelli in the POLITICO poll, compared to 34 percent who view him favorably. The Republican attack ads have taken a toll too: 49 percent of voters view McAuliffe unfavorably, compared to 39 percent who see him favorably.

McAuliffe entered September with $5 million cash on hand after raising $6.2 million during July and August. Cuccinelli had $2.2 million cash on hand at the start of last month and raised $1.9 million during that two-month period.

Both will report one more batch of numbers before Election Day.

Knowing how badly they’re being outspent, the Cuccinelli campaign has worked to earn more free media coverage. They sent an advisory on Tuesday night, for example, declaring that the candidate would make an “Important Announcement” the next afternoon in Newport News and that reporters should watch it on livestream.

It turned out to be an attack on McAuliffe for proposing new spending programs without detailing how they would be paid for, a point Cuccinelli has made repeatedly. By Republican estimates, McAuliffe has called for at least $14 billion in new spending over the next four years – Cuccinelli said this would lead to $1,700 in higher taxes for the average family of four.

“His spending proposals sound great on paper,” said Cuccinelli, “but there’s simply not enough money to pay for what he’s promising.”