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Had a quick look at the 00z run of GFS. Seems there may be some alright storms behind the cloud band as it pushes through Central Northern NSW tomorrow afternoon. Wind Shear isn't exactly spectacular however there is some ok turn in the lower atmosphere that should support some organised convection. 850 winds 15 knots from NNE turning to WNW 20 knots at 700. 500 Winds are lacking but there is a little NW jet around 40 to 50 knots at 300. Nice Dry slot between 600 and 300mb, better the further north you go.

Tomorrow mornings sat pic, the Cobar sounding and surface obs should tell the story. The area around Nyngan could be a good start.

Yeah - it actually looks like the first decent setup for awhile. Not too sure what its going to happen - but seems pretty certain that at least some areas will get some pretty useful rainfall (GFS going for around 100mm over my neck of the woods).

What has interested me is the way that the instability sticks around as the trough stalls over central NSW (yes - it does indeed happen here sometimes...). A stalling trough around these parts has been something of a myth of recent. This afternoon the easterly has really brought through some nice surface moisture. Sadly this hasn't penetrated very far inland, but hopefully that will increase and deepen (as forecast) through tomorrow. This coastal moisture can kick off the rainfall events prematurely as the rainfall forms ahead of the main area of activity.

A difficult day to pinpoint targets with so much cloud over the state. Only been able to view 06z GFS (nothing else available this morning) and not sure what it is telling me. Given the thunderstorm activity now - which I assume has been going all night - it would not surprise me to just see that advance eastwards over large parts of S QLD and Central NSW.

Does anyone know why so few evening soundings appear online these days ? Very annoying.

Agree with you MB, that cloud is certainly very extensive! It has been a rather frustrating morning of model checking. I've only been able to access the NOAA ARL GFS charts this morning - None of the other seemed to be updating. Always seems to happen on a storm day

I'm thinking if things do take off to the NW this afternoon I may head out to the CT's or surrounds for some lightning shots into the evening. Would need to go further west than east to get clear of the rainy mess.

My only other hope is a large clearing somewhere .... cant see that happening unless I was living in Bourke.

Headed out at 130pm and managed to get some storms moving through Mt Lambie/Lithgow. There were some great CG's out near Lake Lyell (WSW of Lithgow) over the past 30 minutes. Set myself up on the south eastern edge of the lake with great views all around. Managed to get around 4 or 5 CG's striking the hills around there on film. Will try and get a capture up later.

The WZ lightning tracker is chock full of strikes within the last 30mins (8pm NT time) - pretty sure everyone is out chasing and getting photos from this trough moving through NSW - look forward to the reports! The Vissat showing a huge line of storms and associated radar image provided.

Enjoyed a nice short chase up to the Central Tablelands this afternoon. Managed to intercept the initial line near Mt Lambie. I was greeted by a nice looking moist shelf cloud courtesy of the South Easterly pumping moisture inland. Once past the rain set in before a barrage of CG's struck in the middle of the downpour. Managed to capture one CG on video - capture below.

That lightning bolt would have created a bit of an explosive thump like a shotgun - yes?

Shelf cloud and bases were pretty low given the high elevations and moist air as you suggested.

Regards,

Jimmy Deguara

Hi Jimmy,

Yep your spot on with the shotgun thunder. There were a number of them striking the hills around my location, all of which had that loud boom sound rather than the cracking & deep rumble. I wonder if it is the nature of the strike itself that affects the sound - i.e a quick negative bolt with possibly less amps?

Hi Mike - Conditions were a bit too cloudy due to the high moisture levels and lack of dry air aloft. This did not favour severe thunderstorms - making it difficult for chasing. However, some heavy falls and small hail were likely. I noticed a number of cells passing over the same locations - they would have picked up some decent falls.

You certainly had to be west or on the divide as James was. The guys from Narrabri and Lightning Ridge may have got something good as well.

You certainly had to be west or on the divide as James was. The guys from Narrabri and Lightning Ridge may have got something good as well.

MB

That we certainly did Michael! Storms triggered late in the afternoon as expected and I didn't stop chasing until 3:45am! (when my brain finally gave out lol) At 7:30pm the first highly active line came through, no real features as they were mostly HP until it settled down a little a we had what I suspect was a right mover traveling East then turning South and hitting town at 8:45pm. This storm was beautiful (even capturing my first roll cloud, as I was saying to Mike in another thread, we don't get those too often!) This cell carried the first staccato strikes I've seen in a while which made photography a joy. I shot three or four more messy cells that came through town at 2:45am which were active but the rain killed any chances of good shots so after an hour or so I headed home. Nothing in the way of hail to report but the rain totals are beaut! The ground is completely saturated (so is the floor of my ute lol).

I'll throw a couple small shots on here and add the link to the days events and the other numerous shots sometime today.

The first shot is of a small LP cell that came by around 6:43pm and started the afternoon delight off!(couldn't take a trick with this little cell and didn't manage one CG from the 8 or so that it produced? lol) The second and third shots are from the beast that rolled in at 8:45. I have heaps of great shots from this storm to share with you all!Cheers and take care.Shauno

Beautiful lightning photos Shaun and nice shelf cloud James. I didn't take the camera out here at Narrabri as the high cloud doesn't make for good daytime photos.

However we are all very happy with local falls between 15-25mm, possibly more on Kaputar. Some areas missed out on the rain a fortnight ago and so have had nothing since the middle of August so, like much of NSW, we were desperate for it.

Several active thunderstorms rolled over yesterday and again this morning with moderate lightning. No significant wind, and no hail to report. This morning's storm has caused blackouts in a few places.

It looks like we might get a little more action before the day is though.Regards, Dave