Next week's return to Westeros doesn't just signal the start of a new chapter for Game of Thrones fans. It also marks the next chapter in the content industry's war against piracy, a battle which looks more daunting than standing up to Daenerys Targaryen and her fire-breathing dragons.

The Game of Thrones series return is shaping up to be a bellwether event in Foxtel's fight to convert pirates into paying customers. I think there are two things you can predict with confidence. Firstly, next week's first episode of season 4 will break Foxtel ratings records, as did the season 3 finale for both HBO and Foxtel. Secondly, the first episode of season 4 will also smash Australian piracy records – also set by the season 3 finale. Will it be possible to declare a winner?

Whatever your opinion of Foxtel, you have to give it credit for embracing the internet, rather than sticking its head in the sand and hoping it would all go away. A few years ago it would have been unthinkable to watch Foxtel without an expensive home subscription and long-term contract – one of the reasons why Foxtel has only managed to get a foothold in about a third of Australian homes. The Foxtel Play online subscription video service aims to change that.

The only way Australians can legitimately watch the return of Game of Thrones next week is to hand over their money to Foxtel, one way or another. This week the PlayStation 3 became yet another way to watch Foxtel Play, joining some Samsung and LG smart TVs and Blu-ray players, Microsoft's Xbox 360, PCs and Macs – along with Apple's iGadgets and Samsung's Android gadgets via the Foxtel Go app. Support for the PlayStation 4 is coming, while Telstra's T-Box still relies on a separate Foxtel service.

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You'll find a PlayStation 3 in around 2 million Australian homes. Combine this with all the other devices on that list and you'd be hard-pressed to find a home which doesn't have a legit way to watch Foxtel Play (assuming your internet connection is up to the task, but that's an argument for another day). Foxtel is even offering a discount on Foxtel Play for the first few months to bring in new viewers.

Of course Foxtel's new Game of Thrones deal with HBO screws over Australian iTunes and Quickflix users, who are now forced to wait until all of season 4 has screened on Foxtel before they can watch a single episode. Last season they could watch it week by week. Having had a legitimate way to watch Game of Thrones ripped away from them, they're entitled to feel hard done by. The thought of rewarding Foxtel for such bastardry by handing over their money is unlikely to be appealing.

This leaves us with the big question: will Foxtel's Game of Thrones strategy gain it more customers than it loses to piracy? With the spread of Foxtel Play you might expect illegal downloads to drop, but don't forget about the iTunes and Quickflix users who would rather illegally download Game of Thrones on principle than give their money to Foxtel. The show may have also picked up new fans, some of whom would rather steal it than pay for it.

Regardless of how many people watch Game of Thrones via Foxtel Play or a traditional Foxtel service, I don't think there's any easy way to judge whether Foxtel is winning the war on piracy. Unless all the legit service providers are prepared to hand over solid viewer numbers for this season and last season, you'd be making a guesstimate at best. A boost in Foxtel viewers would be interesting, but a better indicator would be a drop in illegal downloads (figures which are also rubbery). The number of people turning from piracy to Foxtel will be offset by the number of people turning from iTunes/Quickflix to piracy.

How will you watch next week's series return of Game of Thrones? Will you pay the iron price or the gold price?