I would LOVE to hear from anyone who is using this. What does your model look like? What variables are you including? What are your predictions? What additional factors are you adding to the model that I don't have?

Using my county-level model and a caucus model (excludes the primaries), which has a much smaller standard error than when I combine primaries with caucuses - I am predicting WY - Sanders: 70.5% / Clinton 29.5% (of the Clinton + Sanders vote).

I am hoping that this will be within 2-3 percent of the final result, but no guarantees. My WI forecast was off by 5.85%.

This is based on race, income, age, sex, old FB like data (could be an issue), education, density, and past election results. It also includes Google Search trends for the last 7 days (the latest 7 days possible).

I've been updating my county-level model to predict the outcome of the democratic primary.

I recently added a Google search trend variable that uses the last seven days before the election (but not including the actual election date) and is equal to Sanders / (Sanders + Clinton). While Sanders dominates the search engine trends (typically 2:1), there is a strong positive correlation between the percent of searches that he gets and the outcome. As of this past hour, Sanders is getting 73% of the searches in Wisconsin - which is a strong showing.

I'm learning a lot and have made significant improvements to my model.

Notably I've added a turnout variable - and am assuming that turnout will be proportional to Obama's presidential vote in 2012. While this is likely flawed, I don't have a better idea on how to predict turnout.

I added FB likes by county. Interestingly the FB likes by state are still significant.

I created a caucus-only model which has a much smaller confidence interval for its estimates (40% of the general model's interval).

There
are a lot of people creating models for the 2016 primary. I decided
to focus on the Democratic primary as it should be easier to predict
the outcome in what is primarily a two person race. While I do
prefer Sanders over the other candidates, I am currently not planning
on voting for him as I prefer to vote for left-wing candidates (Green

I'm developing a model for predicting the Sanders vote share in the upcoming Democratic Party primaries and caucuses (2016). Unlike others, I've chosen to create a county level model. Ultimately this can be used to do real-time analysis of votes as they come in on election night. If anyone wants to work on developing this model, I would LOVE to hear from you. I've got an early version of the model (and a real-time "vote swing" analyzer), but it needs work. Notably I need a method for estimating county level turnout so I can translate the county swings into a state wide swing.

For the past five months, my Facebook news has been full of pro-Sanders friends posting stories about how well Sanders is doing in the polls. They systematically cherry-pick the most outlying polls, while ignoring the outliers that go in favor of Clinton.

For instance, they'll pick the recent NH poll that had Sanders 60% to 33% for Clinton, but ignore the two polls that have the race at 46% to 43% and 49% to 43%.