Picks for the 140th Kentucky Derby

After Siena basketball season ended, the blog took a little bit of a break, well-deserved in my humble opinion. I’ve used the past few weeks to recharge the batteries a bit.

The calendar has turned to May and you know what that means, the first Saturday in May is upon us and the 140th running of the Kentucky Derby.

Due to my hectic basketball schedule, I didn’t have a huge amount of time to devote to following the long road to the Derby but I kept tabs on it from afar. Now, the field has been drawn and 19 horses will enter the starting gate on Saturday evening and run for the roses in front of a screaming crowd.

I’ve found I have a bit of a love/hate relationship with the Derby. I love the race because I love horse racing and taking down the greatest horse race in the world is a handicapping thrill like no other.

On the other hand, more than any other race in the world, I don’t think the best horse usually wins the Derby. The overcrowded field, myriad traffic problems and unforeseen conditions can render the best horse an also-ran and make a hero out of a horse who never goes on to become anything.

Alas, the lure of the Run for the Roses is too great to resist and I am going to take a swing at forecasting the race.

Any discussion of the race has to begin with California Chrome, the 5-2 morning line favorite. Understand that in a 20-horse field, 5-2 is a heavy favorite. In a six-horse field, 5-2 is lukewarm at best. In a 20-horse field, 5-2 is practically odds-on.

He has run faster than any other horse in the field by a considerable margin and won the Santa Anita Derby in scintillating fashion without being asked in the final furlong.

Beyond California Chrome, the field looks wide-open. I counted up about six or seven horses who would not surprise me if they won the race.

In years past, I have bet the Derby by betting a large exacta box. This year, I think I will zero in on my top choice and play him on top of others in exotics and also use savers using him underneath.

Those who follow this blog during Saratoga season know how reluctant I am to pick the favorite in any race, much less the Derby. I just think CALIFORNIA CHROME is better than these. I’m a little worried about what kind of trip he will work out from an inside post, but I can see him tracking in the second flight. If he runs to his recent form, I think he wins this by open lengths. He is versatile enough to get a good position. I would be thrilled to get him at 7-2 and with the nature of modern Derby betting (everyone gets bet some, thanks to Mine That Bird), I think 3-1 or 7-2 is doable.

Beyond the favorite, I don’t have a huge feeling one way or the other. TAPITURE took a step back in the Arkansas Derby, but raced wide that day. He won Churchill’s premier juvenile race over this same racing strip and that has often been a key angle in determining Derby success.

INTENSE HOLIDAY strikes me as a horse who will be a “wiseguy” horse. By all accounts, he has been training beautifully since arriving in Louisville. He features a good, rallying style but has never run as fast on the figure scale as some of the others in here.

WICKED STRONG will be a sentimental favorite due to the marathon bombing angle. He rallied powerfully in a fast time in the Wood Memorial in New York. I know every year is different, but it’s been so long since the Wood winner was even remotely relevant in the Derby, I am a bit skeptical. For whatever reason, winners of the Wood have just not run well in Louisville for many years.

One horse I liked a bit more before he drew the dreaded number-one post was VICAR’S IN TROUBLE. He reminded me a bit of Oxbow last year with the way he ran well in Louisiana in the prep season. I liked Oxbow and he went on to win the Preakness after a good showing in the Derby. Vicar could work out a trip with his good speed from the gate. At 30-1, I’ll be using him.

Some other random thoughts. DANZA (8-1) may have turned the corner and is very lightly raced. I had to chuckle when I saw Todd Pletcher, as media-savvy a trainer there is today, say that WE MISS ARTIE (50-1) had no business being in the race. He basically threw his owner, Ken Ramsey, under the bus. Good humor there. Looking for a live longshot to blow up the exotics, how bout COMMANDING CURVE (50-1), who got crushed at the break last out but still rallied to be third.

So there you have it. Those are my picks for the Derby. Let’s hear who the readers like and why? Good luck to all!

One Response

Robert, well written….my knock on Cali. Chrome, whom I will be using in most plays, is that all his wins are against Cal. Breds….he has the most experience with 10 starts, but two of his losses were against open company…as this crop maybe mediocre, I believe the Cal. breds are quite mediocre…will still use him in exotics…the horse I am rooting for is Wicked Strong as I am showing my NY bias for sure…because I am also using Saamrat….I was onboard a couple months ago, and stayed onboard when he came back to get second in the Wood and kept Social Inclusion out of the race.

On Top I have Danza, I was very impressed with his win in the Arkansas Derby and being lightly raced should improve off that effort. I will also use on top, Wicked Strong, his race in the Wood was also visually impressive. I always tend to dismiss all races at Gulfstream Park, so I am willing to ignore his two races in Florida and go with his race in the Wood. filling out exotics with, Cali. Chrome, Saamrat, Medal Count, Ride on Curlin…good luck to all!!!

Note: The Times Union is not responsible for posts and comments written by non-staff members.