Aras the first person to try to meditate fire.......... "Just a little longer guys................. ? you feel the energy now................?? what about now?? ........................................................now???"

* Bruce seems to be sitting out the challenge, so it's not clear which tribe he belongs to. But from process of elimination (assuming 4 men per tribe), we'd assume he's on Casaya. But that could be a poor assumption to make.

The challenge itself appears to be an obstacle course, where the point seems to be collecting the wooden snakes that were shown in the TV Guide Channel preview (at right). The race actually appears fairly even: in the scene where Cirie falls on top of Bobby, La Mina (with Jeff Probst trailing them) are visible just ahead of Casaya. Probst is also shown keeping pace with Casaya, as Aras jumps off an obstacle.

But we think the key shot is of an exhausted Aras (and a sad Courtney), versus Austin's fairly chipper "This isn't just all fun and games" confessional. We'll say La Mina wins. And someone from Casaya gets exiled.

Exile: Courtney? Since we don't know which tribe Bruce is on, we'll leave him out of consideration. Among the people shown to be on Casaya, Aras ("intense", above), Courtney and Bobby have shots indicating frustration or unhappiness. Interestingly, Courtney is shown carrying Casaya's snakes in the RC. She's also dripping wet in the "Quit" shot, above. Since it looks like they lose, and CBS claims "one Survivor makes a major mistake and leaves the tribe disappointed, hungry and still desperately trying to get food" (although we highly doubt food is the reward), we suspect Courtney's the one at fault for the loss. So she'd seem like the most likely candidate for a trip to Exile Island.

Immunity challenge: Underwater chest pull - some tribe wins? With a shot of Shane diving off a dock from the Saturday golf PIP promo, there are now a full two pictures of this challenge. The first, from the web promo, showed Terry pulling an orange trunk underwater.

We had initially thought this might fit the "zombie rescue" challenge described in the TV Guide Channel preview, but with the shots of Shane diving in, there really isn't anything to support that idea. So it's probably just retrieving the trunks, as shown. If so, Terry seems to be doing fairly well at it (Tom Westman, v2.0). So we'd guess La Mina ought to win. But obviously, that's a pretty flimsy guess. .BOOT: Speculation Sadly, someone must go "home." And by "home," we mean not home. But rather a secluded environment featuring food, fellow castoffs, and delicious beverages. Pretty rough, pretty rough whos in danger ??

ONLY SIX DAYS IN AND ONE SURVIVOR IS READY TO QUIT! ON "SURVIVOR: PANAMA -- EXILE ISLAND," THURSDAY, FEB. 9

"Breakdown" -- Six days on the island and one survivor is ready to go home, on SURVIVOR: PANAMA -- EXILE ISLAND, Thursday, Feb. 9 (8:00-9:00 PM, ET/PT) on the CBS Television Network.

When four tribes are consolidated into two during a school-yard pick, the last Survivor fears their time on the island might be over. One castaway struggles to adjust to life on the island. Will they overcome the pressure or quit? One Survivor makes a major mistake and leaves their tribe disappointed, hungry and still desperate for food. As the castaways get to know each other, they waste no time forming alliances, leaving two Survivors feeling vulnerable and another two in a position of power.

By analyzing the content and number of Survivor confessionals, one can find patterns that point to who will last longer in the show. It began with dividing the confessionals into two types: tribal history confessionals (Ts) and tribe dynamics confessionals (Ds). What I discovered during season three (which is when I first started this) is that generally people with a lot of Ds go before people with a lot of Ts. Also, people who are not getting very many confessionals will be safe until we hear from them. This has only been one exception to the latter rule - Zoe from S4, who never got very many confessionals, had no real storyline, and was still booted. The Zoe Exception still rankles me.

A couple other things to look for:

1) There is usually pre-merge narrator. They get a lot of Ts early on and it looks like they'll go far and then wham, the person is voted out shortly after the merge. If someone is definitely narrating and then the Ds start piling up, watch out!

2) People who get confessionals about the theme of the show usually last longer. This was very clear in Africa and Thailand. Africa was all about the culture of the area. Lex, Ethan, and, to a lesser extent, Tom got those confessionals. That's three of the final four. In Thailand, it was all about how to win the game. The culture wasn't emphasized as much after the elders were allowed to pick tribes. Brian was constantly talking about his strategy - his meta-strategy confessionals convinced me he was going to go far. Brian, as we know, won.

3) In eleven seasons, the only winner who didn't get a confessional in the first episode was Tina.

For Panama, the theme is related to Exile Island. People who are talking about that twist have a decent chance of making it further than those who don't. However, if someone gets exiled, we should expect them to be talking about it because they're in the middle of it. It's important to make a distinction between talking about being exiled in general and the specific situation the exilee finds themself in. The former confessionals indicate that the person may last longer.

Austin - 2TAras - 1TNick - 1DBobby - 1TAs I write every season, it's nearly impossible to make any real predictions based on one episode of analysis. This is predictions based on patterns and you need at least two, preferably three episodes before the patterns begin to take shape. That said, it'd be no fun to end my analysis right here, so let's go for it anyway! Hee.

This was Cirie's episode. So much of it was seen through her eyes. She commented on the tribal lines. She commented on what they had to work with when they got to their beach. She orchestrated Tina's ouster. She's the prominent character so far. She strikes as one of those pre-merge narrators, but it's waaaaay too early to say for sure. Ruth Marie told us her strategy of letting a leader take over and being an anonymous worker bee. Melinda talked about how Cirie was the weakest member of the tribe, but she wasn't willing to work against her because she didn't want to risk being targeted. Everyone's strategy at Casaya was pretty clear.

Misty was the first exilee, but she didn't get any confessionals that warrant an * because all of her confessionals were about her specific situation. If Misty were going to last a long time, I would have expected her to get some over reaching comments about the exile theme. So initial impression (subject to change, of course) is that Misty is not long for the game.

At the young girl's camp and the young men's camp, we heard about some conflict but it was done very differently. Nick comments on Aras' goofy yoga energy thing, but no one else does. Contrast that with the comments about Courtney. Both Sally and Danielle talk about how "out there" Courtney is and how she "over dramatizes" everything. Courtney is shown very negatively whereas Aras is shown as little goofy, but not really that bad. Now here's the most interesting part of the whole thing. Did you notice when all the tribes got together for the first time, we were shown Courtney winking at Aras? These two characters are linked.

The editing links two other characters together: Bruce and Shane. Shane is complaining about being stuck with this group of men. After a lot of his comments, we are shown a shot of Bruce. Bruce doesn't have a confessional in the episode (the only one who doesn't and if a pattern holds, there's no chance he wins), but we see a lot of him, and it's almost all through Shane's eyes. Conflict between these two is brewing.

What's really interesting about both of these character links is that analysis of the tribal switch next episode puts all of them on the same tribe.

Ok I disagree with Truedork here and heres why Vid caps support ever person but Bruce who obviously sits out the challenge. Truedork says he is on Casaya basically so its 4 men on each tribe. I disagree I think the fact that "two survivor are left with a feeling of power and two are left verunable" leads more to Bruce being in Dan and Terrys heres Terry feeling confidentpocket making them the comfortable pair. I think Melinda is that last pick chooses Casaya sending Dan over to La Mina, I also think Austin being picked late leads him to his "not all fun and games" line.

OK Who get Exiled? some think Courtney some think Aras all I know is La Mina definately wins the RC. Alot think Bruce however I dont think Bruce is on Casaya. This is the supposed evidence pic of Bruce however he doesn't have on a Buff and we don't really know what this pic is from. Ill go out on a limb and say Melinda gets exiled??

Ok so much like the pic of Aras where we know his tribe loses the RC, this pic of Courtney lets us know they also loose the IC. And suprise Melinda gets the boot Cirie her only real link on the Island should be quick to offer her up for both the boot and possibly the exiling. Cirie's anyone but me is working right now.

Logged

Aras the first person to try to meditate fire.......... "Just a little longer guys................. ? you feel the energy now................?? what about now?? ........................................................now???"

Survivor - Exile Island Ep2: The Nova Scotia Trifecta Part 3-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- It has taken over a year for the Nova Scotia Trifecta (at least one episode each of Survivor, TAR, and The Apprentice) to be completed, but at last, it has been done!

This tale will unfold in three parts. Enjoy.

As usual:

DON'T GO IF YOU DON'T WANT TO KNOW

Part 1

Starts at night. Thunder and lightning.

In shelter with older men. They say the shelter is useless. No ****.

Little bit of bad luck. This place breeds bad luck.

Lightning strikes.

Younger men (Night 3)

Shows Nick with the blanket.

Morning day 4. Older womens camp.

Cirie and Melinda trying to start fire.

Younger women. Courtney and Sally poking at fruit to get off a tree. They get some papaya. They eat it. They're thrilled to have food.

Older Men, Day 4.

Terry looking at the weather. Shane whining about missing his kid. There is no reason for me to be doing this. I make more than enough money, I dont know why I did this.

Cut to Probst. Tribes coming in to area.

JP: Your first look at the group of new older women. Tina voted out at the last tribal council. Allright, lets get to it. Everybody take a spot on the disks. Men on the light disks. Women on the dark disks. "

JP: Everybody take a step back, turn over your disk. You see a buff, pick it up. Terry, take a spot over here to the left (orange buff). Danielle, over here to the right (purple buff)."

NOTE: These are the team captains. I'm sure I need to tell you idiots that.

Four tribes are about to become two tribes (cap of Bruce showing surprise). Terry, youre the first member of La Mina. Danielle, youre the first member of Casaya. Were gonna do a schoolyard pick. Doesnt matter who goes first, because a man has to pick a woman, woman has to pick a man, therefore, ladies first. Danielle, youre choosing a man.

Danielle: "The cool guy with the Boston tattoo." (Shane)

JP throws a bag of buffs to Shane, tells him to get rid of his old one and put the new one on.

JP: Ruth Marie becomes a member of La Mina. Bobby, your choice has already been made for ya.

Bobby: Melinda." Joins Casaya.

JP: "Okay, only one choice left. So Ruth Marie you are in effect choosing your last tribe member and telling one of these guys, nobody wants them on the tribe.

Ruth Marie: This young man right here. (Dan)

JP: Dan goes to La Mina. Okay. So, that leaves you Bruce. How tough would it be four days in to be going home?

Bruce: Uh, I would be really disappointed because I came here to win.

JP: Well, not only are you not going home, you out of all 15, are the only person guaranteed to be safe at the next tribal council.

Bruce screams: "Yeah, Baby! Woooo!" JP: The next three days youre going youre going to be spending on Exile Island. You wont return back to this game until the next Tribal Council and which point you will sit in and listen. After that tribe has voted somebody out, you will replace that person as the new member of that tribe and be back in this game. In addition, theres still a hidden immunity idol that may or may not be out there. Theoretically, Misty could already have it.

Bruce: Im ready for this.

JP: Well go. Boats out there. Well have flint waiting for you so you can make fire.

Bruce walks off. All clap for him and say Go Bruce. Yay for Bruce!

JP: "Okay, two tribes. La Mina, in the orange. Casaya wearing purple. Shall we get to todays Reward Challenge? In todays challenge, you are going to race through an obstacle course, collecting six wooden snakes along the way. One member of your tribe is responsible for carrying all six snakes throughout the entire course. On my go you will make your way to the first station, where you will collect your first two snakess. Youll crawl under a fence and over a 12 foot A-frame wall. Make your way under the bamboo crawl, grab two more snakes. You now have one person carrying four snakes. Youll then go across a wooden ladder bridge. If you fall off the bridge you gotta go back the start and go again. For the last phase: Go through the water and into a pit of leaves, where you must find the last two snakes. First tribe to cross the finish line with all six snakes wins reward."

"Want to know what youre playing for?"

Uh, no, Jeff, we don't. Duh.

Uncovers the table beside him showing ..

JP: Fishing gear. Oohs and aahs from the tribes. In addition, waiting for you at camp, one raft, four paddles to go with it. Should help you trying to get some food. Worth playing for? Allright, take our spots, well get started.

Both tribes getting snakes untied. Both tribes get both snakes quickly. Both tribes dead even going over the A-frame. Both tribes still even at bamboo crawl. Now on wooden bridge. Shane falls, has to go back to the start. La Mina across first. Pretty much neck and neck. Looking through the leaves. La Mina gets the snakes first. La Mina wins reward.

JP tells Casaya they lost, got nothing for ya. Heading back to the Casaya Beach, previously the older women’s camp.

Tells La Mina nice effort. Head to the older men’s camp.

Casaya day 4.

Shane in the water with the women. Says he’s in a much better mood than the morning. (PI). Bitching about the older men. Says he works better with younger people. Didn’t like being on the older tribe.

Now all are looking shelter. Just chit chat.

Cirie (PI): “Oh my God, we have been invaded.” (cut to people just milling. Back to Cirie) “I mean some of the people are okay. Like Danielle, she’s okay. And Courtney, like, I mean, like, she’s, uh, like …” (Shows Courtney talking about partying and such).

Melinda (PI): “It’s like that game where you have to figure out what doesn’t belong in a group. And Cirie and I are the ones that stick out. If our tribe loses, the upcoming immunity challenge, I think Cirie and I are screwed. Yep, we’re screwed.”

Showing Shane with Danielle and Courtney “Yo yo, the three of us and Aras.” Girls: “totally.” They start talking about an alliance. Shane: “Can we not make it dramatic and not cheat on each other?”

Shane in PI talking about putting the alliance together.

More talk with the four of them now.

Danielle in PI: Talking about their alliance.

La Mina’s camp.

Dan (PI) is thrilled to be on that team. He was worried because he was almost the last one picked. Said this is the team he definitely wanted to be on.

Guys start the fire.

Dan in PI talking about his and Terry’s relationship and going all the way.

Terry talking to Austin and Nick about an alliance with him and Dan now.

Nick (PI): Likes the alliance. Said it makes sense in the short time in the tribe

Sally talking to Austin now. Now she’s talking about Austin, Nick, Misty and her forming an alliance.

Austin (PI): Says he and Nick are in the middle now and it’s gonna be a tug of war.

On Exile Island, Day 4.

Showing Bruce reading a piece of paper that says:

“Exile Island, Day 1 (Jeff’s Verbal Clue to the First Exile) You also have a lot of time to think about “why” fate chose you to be the first one out here. Which is “why” immunity is already so important …."

On same piece of paper at the bottom:

“Clue 2 - Day 4. It is above the tide line.”

On the other side is a drawing of the island and a section showing where the idol is NOT.

Bruce (PI): says he thinks it’s right against the cliff some place. He says he’s going to find the immunity idol. He doesn't get the fire started. Doing some sort of martial arts on the island now. Said he’s doing it to focus and get his mind ready.

Night. Storms raging again.

Bruce(on EI): “This place is horrible, evil, it’s not good to be here. I would not wish this on my worst enemy.”

La Mina, Day 6:

They’re going fishing. Nobody has used the fishing equipment.

Terry talking about fishing equipment. Shows how to use the sling. Sally and Nick go out on the raft.

Sally loses the sling (idiot!). Has to dive to get it. She can’t get it. Nick’s telling her not to worry about it. It happens. She's nervous about telling the rest of the tribe. When they get back she tells Dan and Terry. They have a funny look on their faces. Says it’s too deep to go down and get it.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Part 3

Immunity Challenge

Challenge Beach

JP: “Come on in guys: Okay, how’s everybody doing? Misty, how you hanging in there?”

Misty: “Pretty good. The good thing about our team is that we’re very upbeat. That’s our rule. Don’t get down and out. Just be thankful and stay positive.”

JP: “Casaya, how are things going for you?”

Shane: “I don’t know how people feel and stuff, but I’m not gonna lie. Like we were in a dire situation. And the whole like woo, let’s act like everything is allright so the other tribe is like, I said screw that, we are not in a good way. Physically we’re wrecked.”

Harry's note: This guy has the attention span of a fruit fly. Funny guy, but his tribe doesn't seem to dig his vibe.

JP: “Okay. Let’s get to today’s challenge. Here’s how it works: Today’s immunity challenge will test your ability to work together while transporting a giant zombie head from the ocean to the beach. Each tribe has a boat. That boat is anchored to the bottom of the ocean floor to a large wooden box. In addition, each boat has six holes filled with rubber plugs. On my go, each tribe will pull the plugs and begin bailing the water that is now coming in the boat. The other two tribe members jump in the water, begin moving the boat forward by pulling the anchor, which is very heavy. Once you get to shore, hitch your boat to the hitching post. You must now transport the anchor, up the beach to your finish mat. First tribe to get their zombie head on the zombie body wins immunity and is safe from tribal council.”

They swim to the boat. And go!

Aras and Bobby in the water for Casaya.

Terry and Nick for La Mina.

Other tribes are bailing the water. They keep coming up for air.

Austin and Nick switch places in the water.

Shane and Bobby switch.

JP: “La Mina is still in the lead but only because Casaya is so inept.”

Casaya switching out members again (Courtney in the water).

Casaya making up some ground. Getting closer.

La Mina first back to the beach. Get their boat clipped in. Heading for the finish mat. Ruth Marie puts the zombie head on the zombie. La Mina wins immunity!

Casaya, Day 6: (PI) Shane at water’s edge. Whining about losing. Says he’s beat, wiped out and wants a cigarette. Wants to call his kid and tell him he loves him and this was the stupidest thing he ever did in his whole life. Says he’s not well without him.

Harry's note: WAAAAAAHHHHHHH!!!

Shane talking to Danielle and Courtney, telling them to vote him off. Says he has to quit, that he can’t finish. They’re trying to talk him out of it. Aras comes up. Shane telling him that he doesn’t want to be there. Now Melinda is there. He’s telling them to vote him off. They’re still trying to talk him out of it.

Courtney (PI): “Shane is letting us down. Completely. He’s leaving us high and dry. He threw in the towel.”

Melinda telling Cirie and Bobby that Shane wants to be voted off. Cirie said if he wants to quit, let him quit!

Harry: No ****.

Aras talking to Shane. Still trying to talk him out of it. Shane says he doesn’t want to be here. He’s positive. Aras tells him if he’s sure he’ll vote him home, then asks who he would vote out. To think about it.

Aras is now telling everyone Shane wants to stay. Now Shane is saying if he gets some water, now he may want to stay. Aras is talking to Shane, Cirie, Melinda and Danielle. He tells them he’s going to throw is vote to either Melinda or Cirie while they are sitting there! Courtney’s pissed now.

Courtney: in PI: “It was so stupid. It was his decision.”

Shane tells Cirie and Melinda that whoever doesn’t go now will go next.

Melinda is really pissed because Shane just told everyone they had an alliance.

Melinda and Cirie talking privately. Cirie says that they’re screwed. She thinks she’s first. Melinda thinks she’s first. Melinda says she was the last one picked for her group so she thinks it’ll be her.

Shane in PI says it’s one or the other, but he still says he wants to quit.

Tribal Council

Get the torches and get fire.

Brought in Bruce to listen in. Once the vote's over, Bruce will be on Casaya.

JP: “Shane, you made no bones about it at the challenge today. You said ‘Jeff, I’m not going to pretend to the other tribe that everything’s fine. It’s miserable.’”

Shane: “Yeah, it’s the worst thing that’s ever happened to me in my entire life. I wanted to quit. I wanted them all to write my name down and I wanted to leave here because I couldn’t get out of the mania of dehydration, not being able to eat and on top of that I smoke three packs of cigarettes a day and quit the day I got here. So I’m in the midst of this insane withdrawal from that and I was done. I wanted out of here.”

JP: “So is this like a detox for you?”

Shane: “It’s some kind of psychotic, bad idea detox.”

JP: “Cirie, let’s talk about what’s going on in camp life.”

Cirie: “I think for the most part, everyone was okay with everyone else. Up until today.”

JP: “What happened today?”

Cirie: “No matter how happy you try to be, it’s hard to stay like that when you’re told ‘It’s us four’ and that’s basically what it was and either one of ya’ll are gonna go home today. It’s hurtful. I mean, I’m human”

Melinda: “Especially in the challenge when you compete as a team. I don’t think there’s anything Cirie or I did or didn’t do that they could point out to and say 'you should’ve done that better.'”

JP: “So if it’s you tonight, that’s the way it goes?”

Melinda: “No. I mean, I’m disappointed, I’m pissed, I’m hurt. It bothers me when someone remotely even has a thought to quit and you have me here who is trying my best to stay.”

JP: “Cirie, if it’s you tonight, 6 days, it’s not bad."

Cirie: “Six days is not bad, but the disappointment my family would have is bad."

JP: “Why would they be disappointed in you? You’re giving it your all.”

Cirie: “My family might not be disappointed, but I would be disappointed for them. Because part of the reason I came here is to help them.”

<Lots of shots of Shane>

Cirie: “They probably wouldn’t be disappointed, but I would.”

JP: “To me this tribe seems a little all over the map. Curious to see how it plays out. It is time to vote.”

I agree with you puddin. What REALLY irritates me is that there are so many people who try hard to get on the show and play and here is this guy who is wishy washy and just wants to quit 6 days into it.

How can you hate a guy who smoked 3 packs a day and hasnt smoked in 6 days???

Ill tell you what you go 6 days with little water, no shower, and with out your number 1 fix in life and say you don't get a little antsy?? He is going throught what so many on Survivor go through he is just like the 6th to voice it. (BB - Borneo, Shawana -Amazon, Osten - PI, Ashley - Palau, Jeff - Palau)

Logged

Aras the first person to try to meditate fire.......... "Just a little longer guys................. ? you feel the energy now................?? what about now?? ........................................................now???"