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State-by-State Presidential Approval Ratings

We could use a bit of political optimism. I am very glad I'm not in charge of Mr. Trump's 2020 campaign (for many reasons). If you map the electoral vote by his current approval rating, it does not look at all good. The original piece is here, with lots of links to the data. Yes, it's a long time before the election; yes, many unforeseen things will occur, but still . . . . The usual suspects will soon chime in with 'Yeah, everybody thought Hillary would win too'; treat that with all the respect it deserves.

Trump’s State-by-State Approval Ratings Should Scare the MAGA Out of Him
By Ed Kilgore

There has been a lot of discussion in political circles about Donald Trump’s job-approval ratings, what they portend, and Trump’s Electoral College strategy for 2020, which doesn’t necessarily require a popular-vote plurality. But in the end, of course, the conjunction of the Electoral College with Trump’s state-by-state popularity is where the deal will go down.

The online polling firm Civiqs has published a new set of state-by-state job-approval ratings for Trump as of August 11, and it shows how the president’s overall standing (a 43 percent approval rating nationally, which happens to match the current RealClearPolitics polling average) might translate into electorate votes. It’s not a pretty picture for the president, to put it mildly.

Civiqs shows the president’s net approval ratios being underwater (i.e., negative) in 10 states he carried in 2016: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Wisconsin. If that were to represent how the 2020 elections turn out, Trump would have a booming 119 electoral votes. And it’s not as though he’s on a knife’s edge between victory and defeat in all these Trump 2016 states where he’s doing poorly: He’s underwater by 12 points in Pennsylvania, 11 in Michigan, and nine in Arizona, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. And there’s virtually no indication that states that narrowly went for Clinton in 2016 are trending in Trump’s direction: His approval ratios are minus 18 in Colorado, minus 15 in Minnesota, minus 12 in Nevada, and minus 27 in New Hampshire. These are, by the way, polls of registered voters, not just “adults,” so they should be a relatively sound reflection of the views of the electorate.

In case you just don’t trust this particular pollster, the other publicly available survey of state-by-state presidential job approval is from Morning Consult, and its latest numbers (as of July) are pretty similar. They show Georgia and Texas as positive for Trump, and North Carolina as very close. But all the other “battleground states” are quite the reach for the incumbent.

If you credit these polls at all, Trump’s reelection will require (1) a big late improvement in his approval ratings, which is possible but unlikely based on long-standing patterns during his polarizing presidency; (2) a campaign that succeeds in making the election turn on theoretical fears about his opponent rather than actual fears about a second Trump term, which won’t be easy either; (3) a big Republican turnout advantage, which is less likely among the larger presidential electorate than it was in 2018; or (4) some diabolical ability to thread the needle despite every contrary indicator, which superstitious Democrats fear for obvious reasons.

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations,
for nature cannot be fooled."

There is some truth, it seems, to the notion that - in this instance - polls should be taken with a grain of salt.

Because social acceptance of things like overt racism or misogyny is shrinking... what might be more accurate is to say that the Over65 cohort is the only group who is willing to openly express their support for Trump. The younger ones - not wanting to examine, or openly admit to, their support for Trump (and all he represents) - will lie to the pollsters, but pull the lever for Trump in the privacy of the voting booth.

Add that to the 'too great' success the R's have had suppressing the vote of those groups who aren't likely to support them... and my conclusion is that getting out the vote is the most critical thing we can do leading up to this election.

Re: State-by-State Presidential Approval Ratings

Re: State-by-State Presidential Approval Ratings

I'm not surprised by Maine his China tarriff s have hurt lobsterman and blueberry farmers hard, no subsidy like he did for the soybean farmers. The Chinese have also just reopened another closed paper mill.

Re: State-by-State Presidential Approval Ratings

In 2016 the polls reported that most voters disliked both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. Historic dislike.

In 2019 the polls are reporting that most voters dislike Donald Trump. So, basically no change.

I don’t think these polls say anything about his likelihood of winning. He’ll be hated by some and loved by some and those numbers have really changed in four years. It only matters who the Democrats run.

I hope Trump loses, because he is the Ebola of American presidents. Worst ever, hands down. Bigly. Best result is if Trump loses by a lot, and the idea of Trumpism is smeared like roadkill on an Oklahoma two lane.

Re: State-by-State Presidential Approval Ratings

Originally Posted by Hugh Conway

- the only age cohort that is net positive on Trump are >65.

Also - important for poll accuracy - they are the only ones who answer a landline phone.
Polling is notoriously difficult to do properly if you don't know where the person you are talking to is. You can't be sure of a representative sample.
So over 65 might be the best sample out there, in which case ........

Re: State-by-State Presidential Approval Ratings

Originally Posted by Chris Smith porter maine

I'm not surprised by Maine his China tarriff s have hurt lobsterman and blueberry farmers hard, no subsidy like he did for the soybean farmers. The Chinese have also just reopened another closed paper mill.

Re: State-by-State Presidential Approval Ratings

Originally Posted by gypsie

Also - important for poll accuracy - they are the only ones who answer a landline phone.
Polling is notoriously difficult to do properly if you don't know where the person you are talking to is. You can't be sure of a representative sample.
So over 65 might be the best sample out there, in which case ........

Or maybe it's an accurate representation of the support for Trump. Because similar patterns appear in many polls conducted via many means. And so what matters is voter turnout and the electoral college map.

Re: State-by-State Presidential Approval Ratings

In 2016 the polls reported that most voters disliked both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. Historic dislike.

In 2019 the polls are reporting that most voters dislike Donald Trump. So, basically no change.

I don’t think these polls say anything about his likelihood of winning. He’ll be hated by some and loved by some and those numbers have really changed in four years. It only matters who the Democrats run.

I hope Trump loses, because he is the Ebola of American presidents. Worst ever, hands down. Bigly. Best result is if Trump loses by a lot, and the idea of Trumpism is smeared like roadkill on an Oklahoma two lane.

Yes, the question is, will Trump manage to drag the Democratic nominee's favorability down to his level, as he did with Hillary Clinton.

I suspect this is part of Biden's appeal. He comes across as a decent, well-intentioned man, which makes him the opposite of Trump.

In 2016 the polls reported that most voters disliked both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton. Historic dislike.

In 2019 the polls are reporting that most voters dislike Donald Trump. So, basically no change.

I dont think these polls say anything about his likelihood of winning. Hell be hated by some and loved by some and those numbers have really changed in four years. It only matters who the Democrats run.

I hope Trump loses, because he is the Ebola of American presidents. Worst ever, hands down. Bigly. Best result is if Trump loses by a lot, and the idea of Trumpism is smeared like roadkill on an Oklahoma two lane.

You are correct about your 2016 comments. The GOP nominated the only person who could not be Clinton, the Dems nominated the only person who could not beat Trump. So he won the EC, she won the popular vote.

But they do tell us something about 2020. Trump had to pull of a trifecta of state wins to win the EC. He only did so because of Hillary's unpopularity and because she ran a stupid campaign. The only way he can repeat such a feat is if the Democrats nominate a really bad candidate. There is a chance they will, certainly some of the rhetoric of the contenders is idiotic. But I doubt they will. Trump is highly unlikely to win imo.

Re: State-by-State Presidential Approval Ratings

Originally Posted by peb

You are correct about your 2016 comments. The GOP nominated the only person who could not be Clinton, the Dems nominated the only person who could not beat Trump. So he won the EC, she won the popular vote.

But they do tell us something about 2020. Trump had to pull of a trifecta of state wins to win the EC. He only did so because of Hillary's unpopularity and because she ran a stupid campaign. The only way he can repeat such a feat is if the Democrats nominate a really bad candidate. There is a chance they will, certainly some of the rhetoric of the contenders is idiotic. But I doubt they will. Trump is highly unlikely to win imo.

We can only hope he loses. The best thing for the country is for it to vote Trump out in a big way.

Re: State-by-State Presidential Approval Ratings

honestly I think a second term with its numerous concomitant failures is necessary to purge the US of Trumpism and to force the Republican party into soulsearching and rebuilding.

Perhaps I'm being overly optimistic though. I thought by now even his supporters would see the mans an ignoramus, but that does not seem to be the case.

You could be right. We, as a nation, just might be that dense. But I'm not sure we'd survive another Trump term. I'm not ruling out this Trump administration being the tipping point in the U.S.'s 'end of empire'.