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Saturday, November 15, 2014

Chance to resolve China-India border dispute

There has been a lot of commentary on the economic goodies that China's
paramount leader Xi Jinping is bringing to New Delhi: $100 billion
investment in the infrastructure sector, the creation of several large
industrial zones and Chinese participation in the modernisation of
India's railways, New Silk Route initiatives, Indian membership in the
Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and so on. The sky, it would seem, is
the limit.

Obstacle
But Sino-Indian relations are likely to go
nowhere unless the two countries are able to resolve their border issue.
Having fought a war in 1962, and come close to another in 1987, they
have managed to maintain peace and tranquillity there for the past 25
years and forged closer economic and political ties. But the Depsang
Plains incident of April-May 2013 is a warning that a disputed border
can never be a peaceful border, and it remains the principal obstacle to
normal ties between the two rising Asian giants.
Narendra Modi and China's supreme leader Xi Jinping have a historic opportunity to
transform this state of affairs. Both are the most powerful politicians
to have taken charge of their respective countries in recent times, and,
they appear to have the political capital needed and, more important,
the larger vision of Sino-Indian relations, to obtain a border
settlement.PM Narendra Modi and Chinese premier Xi Jinping could make history during Xiâ€™s visit to IndiaThe
dispute no longer makes sense - both sides have secured their most
vital non-negotiable areas - China has Aksai Chin and India Arunachal
Pradesh - and neither side will give them up short of a major war, which
itself will be disastrous for both countries.
Intriguingly
enough, thrice in the past year and a half, the Chinese leadership has
suggested that they are looking for change. In March 2013, May 2013 and
more recently in June 2014.
When Prime Minister Manmohan Singh
had met Xi Jinping in March 2013 during the BRICS meet in Durban, both
sides had agreed on the need to accelerate the process of the border
settlement. The Chinese news agency Xinhua quoted Xi as saying on March
29 that China and India should "make good use of the mechanism of
Special Representatives (SR) to strive for a fair, rational solution
framework acceptable to both sides as soon as possible."
The first
part of the formulation has been standard in recent years, but it is
the second part - "as soon as possible"- that Chance to resolve border
dispute PM Narendra Modi and Chinese premier Xi Jinping could make
history during Xi's visit to India by Manoj Joshi is significant. This
message was repeated by Premier Li Keqiang in New Delhi in May 2013, and
most recently by Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi, during his visit to
greet the new Modi government in Delhi in June 2014. In a statement, he
noted, "Through years of negotiation, we have come to an agreement on
the basics of a boundary agreement, and we are prepared to reach a final
settlement." That's as clear a message as you can get.

Push
Curiously,
there have been no comparable statements from the Indian side on the
desirability or feasibility of an early border settlement. However,
privately officials involved in the negotiations say that the Special
Representatives' negotiations have achieved what they could, now the top
leaderships in the two countries must make the final push.
The SR
level talks were initiated in 2003 during Prime Minister Atal Bihari
Vajpayee's visit to Beijing in 2003. The two sides made quick progress,
and by April 2005 they reached an "Agreement on Political Parameters and
Guiding Principles for the Settlement of the India China Boundary
Question." It virtually spelt out the contours of a border settlement:
Article IV gave "due consideration" to the two sides "strategic and
reasonable interests" and Article VIII agreed that any settlement
"should safeguard due interests of their settled populations in the
border areas." This was as clear a statement the two sides were ready to
swap their claims - India would concede Aksai Chin, a vital strategic
area which provides the only all-weather link between Xinjiang and
Tibet. And China would accept India's claim to Arunachal Pradesh, which
has settled populations, in contrast to the other areas in dispute.

Reality
But
having achieved this agreement in 2005, there was a slide back. Between
2007-2010, Sino-Indian relations nosedived. In some measure the Indo-US
nuclear deal was responsible, and in some measure China's nervousness
relating to Tibet where there had been large scale disturbances in 2008
for which Beijing privately held New Delhi responsible. So it was a
pleasant surprise when Yang Jichei, appointed China's SR by the Xi
Jinping government said at the start of the 16th round of SR talks in
June 2013 that he was ready to "break new ground" and "strive for the
settlement of the China-India boundary questionâ€¦in a new period."
The
Chinese posture suggests the Xi-Li team has done its homework and feels
the time has come to clinch a settlement. There are indications the
Modi team has also done its homework. In the last two months this issue
has been discussed in depth by the new team led by National Security
Adviser Ajit Doval.
This is where Modi and Xi come in. Both are
regarded as the most powerful politicians to head their respective
countries in recent times. But we should not underestimate their
difficulties. Any settlement will be unsettling for important
constituencies in both countries. If Modi has to get an agreement
through Parliament and, before that, the Sangh Parivar, Xi needs to take
his Politburo, if not his Central Committee with him.
Both are
aware of the historical consequences of the deal and both know that they
can only do it now when they are at the height of their powers. Indeed,
this is what Prime Minister Vajpayee intended to do in 2003.
Unfortunately for him and the nation, he lost the 2004 elections and
thereafter India lacked a powerful leader with the necessary political
capital to work out a settlement with China.Mail Today Sep 16, 2014