Archive for the ‘oscars 2015 predictions’ Tag

This month, Steve Jobs flops, Beasts falls while Room rises. And we had first official word for Joy and The Big Short. And before the critics roll out their choices, the Hollywood Film Awards as well as the Gothams draw first blood this season. Oh, and the Foreign Language and Documentary committees released their eligibility list. Here’s my October predictions in all categories except Best Original Song.

It’s September, and as we kick off the -ber months, it’s start to move back to our monthly Oscar predictions! Now that the Emmys have finally concluded, let’s shift the attention to the feature films yet again. This season has already provided us a lot of questions. Will David O. Russell go four in a row? Is it Carol or Truth for Blanchett? Will Diane Ladd make follow her ex husband Bruce Dern (nominated last year) and daughter Laura Dern (nominated earlier this year) to comeback Oscar noms? How many children will get in this year? Which category frauds will be tolerated? And is this the thirstiest bunch of campaigners we have (Kate Winslet, Diane Ladd, Eddie Redmayne, Michael Keaton, Brie Larson, Alicia Vikander)? So many questions!

After almost a year of doing monthly predictions, all prayer circles come to this. Tonight, Academy president Cheryl Isaac Boones together with actor Chris Pine, current Best Director winner Alfonso Cuaron, and J.J. Abrams will finally reveal the 2014 class of Oscar nominees. And as per tradition, I’ll be offering my short thoughts in all 21 races.

With 10 slots up for grabs, it’s easy to identify those that would make it in a field of five. As for starters, there’s clear frontrunner Boyhood ahead of the pack. Along with it is the meta comedy Birdman, Harvey Weinstein’s biggest push The Imitation Game, the Stephen Hawking biopic The Theory of Everything, and this season’s biggest surprise The Grand Budapest Hotel. Selma is a clear victim of campaign mishandling and bad timing which led to its bad guild and precursor performance, but if they’re such on a limited time, it’s indeed wise to focus their eyes to Oscar which I think will pay off with a nomination. Whiplash has indeed been an overperformer this season managing to overcome obstacles one after the other, and a nod is assured at this point. American Sniper fits the bill of that late game-changing contender who’ll usually do well on the big day despite being under the radar for the most part. It’s eliciting real passion which would be enough in a tricky category such as this one. The last two slots clear go to Gone Girl and Nightcrawler — the former being that box office hit representative from an auteur that commands respect among his peers while the latter is a debut feature that hits all the right notes in terms of campaigning. If they decide to nominate ten films, then count on both making it, but since the 6-10 rule change in 2011, the median number of nominees here is 9. I’d give the advantage to Gone Girl making it in then.

The consensus three is composed of Linklater, Anderson, and Inarritu, and they all seem safe and guaranteed for slots already. Despite the Academy being cold to his more recent works, Clint Eastwood never gives up finally hitting the right notes again for the first time in 8 years; thus, I see an Oscar nod accompanying his DGA mention. Like her movie, I’m expecting Globe nominee Ava Duvernay to hit it right at the Osccars despite underwhelming at the precursors. She has the narrative and the passion to make a case in getting nominated. Don’t count out Damien Chazelle though who managed to get a BAFTA nod for Whiplash, or Morten Tyldum who showed up at DGA despite literally missing everywhere.

What a category. You have nine names battling out for five slots it’s not even funny thinking the possibilities here. Well whatever happens though, two names are assured already. The two Golden Globe Best Actor winners, Michael Keaton and Eddie Redmayne for comedy and drama respectively, are likely to happen no matter what. Benedict Cumberbatch is in a safe albeit lower position than the two frontrunners for his turn as Alan Turing. The rest, to put it easily, is a clusterfuck. Despite missing some big precursors, David Oyelowo playing MLK seems too odd to miss especially since the Academy, unlike other guilds, has ample time to see Selma, so I’m sticking with him here. The last spot I go back and forth between two men whose names isn’t Jake Gyllenhaal sadly. While Jake seems logical after hitting all precursors, I think he somehow is affected that the two names are from far stronger films overall. First, there’s Ralph Fiennes who picked up Globe and BAFTA nods as part of a Top 5 finisher. Then there’s Bradley Cooper who’s hot on the heels of AMPAS with two consecutive nods under his belt, and with a really baity role this time around and lots of people campaigning for him. I guess one of those two makes it, and I won’t even be surprised if both Cooper and Fiennes make it in with Oyelowo missing.

In probably the most boring race for Lead Actress in a long time, we have four names likely making it in already: Julianne Moore, Reese Witherspoon, Rosamund Pike, and Felicity Jones. The last spot is between two ladies with equally both pros and cons. First up, you have perennial nominee Amy Adams in Harvey Weinstein backed-up film Big Eyes. She just won the Golden Globe last Sunday eve increasing her chances of a nom. While it seemed like her snub is impending, the Today Show controversy made her such a headline again. And she got in at the BAFTAs which sealed her last two nominations despite both times missing at SAG. Then there’s Jennifer Aniston in that film that no one probably knew about: Cake. While pundits are rallying about it, plus her getting in at Globe + SAG, would that be enough for her to have that elusive Oscar nod? Me thinks that it’s better to be safe and stick with a name the Academy has nominated five times in nine years.

This is as barren as one can possibly get, so it’s either we retain that same line up, or we have a totally out of the field surprise. Steve Carell’s BAFTA nod here threw many of us in the loop so let’s see if SPC can pull this trick off. I’d say they get close, but not totally good enough.

Patricia, Keira, and Emma have garnered precursors one after the other that they’re names are expected to show up already. Meryl missed the BAFTA (like last year for August: Osage County) but who cares? It’s the Oscars we’re talking about here so hello nod #19. The last spot is between Globe nominee Jessica Chastain who’s hot on the heels of Oscar getting nominated twice in the last three years, and BAFTA nominee Renee Russo. It does seem logical that Nightcrawler is the stronger performer between that and A Most Violent Year, but Chastain is the more known of the two, and I don’t expect Nightcrawler to really hit it big with the Oscars despite great precursor run. I keep going back and forth, but I think I give Chastain a hair-like edge in this race.

We might be nearing the end of the year, but it’s just the start of the coming awards season. just last week, the Hollywood Film Awards has given their best of the year and with the Governor Awards two weeks ago, Oscar campaigning has gone on full blast with contenders appearing left and right *coughHilarySwankandEddieRedmaynecough* and making their presence felt already. Among the remaining contenders of the year, it seems like Into the Woods is the only remaining mystery to the puzzle. Let’s see the state of the race at this crucial moment by far before the critics roll out with their picks come first week of December.

We’re getting closer to the busiest months of awards prognostication as we reach the end of the year. At this point in the race, only American Sniper, Unbroken, Selma, Interstellar,Into the Woods, A Most Violent Year and Big Eyes are left among those in play for major nominations this year. But then again, we’ve had word on majority of the contenders already and we’re just awaiting for other factors to have a complete look on the race. This month, I’ve already added my predictions for the Foreign Language Film category considering that in two weeks time, we’ll hear the official complete list from AMPAS.

I’m still a bit bullish on Unbroken while quite confident in Selma, despite both being unseen. And I’m quite ready to predict that American Sniper will be Clint’s Oscar comeback. It’s also interesting to see the crowded Lead Actor race, as we’re bound to get a snub or two the way Tom Hanks was last year and John Hawkes was the year before. My current bet is on Eddie Redmayne to come close but solidify his chances for next year’s The Danish Girl, but I might still change my mind in the months to come. Anyway, here are my complete predictions in 19 different categories

After skipping last month to pave the way for the Emmys, the monthly Oscar predictions are back (and with a new look to boot!). Now that festivals are coming one after the other (Telluride and Toronto have already started) and New York and AFI will soon come ahead of us, it’s time to clear the air on a lot of these contenders! I’ve also started to predict the rest of the categories (except Song, Foreign Language Film, and Documentary because duh, we need a shortlist for those). Anyway, here we go with the September batch of predictions!

*You can click the photos to read the write-ups in full (especially in the Best Picture category)