Mike Smyth: For NDP, lots can go wrong when Krog vacates Nanaimo seat

Aerial image of downtown Nanaimo, a town that could decide the fate of the government when a byelection takes place.Ken Walker

Columnist Mike Smyth writes about NDP MLA Leonard Krog running for mayor of Nanaimo and the resulting by-election that could bring down the government.

What could possibly go wrong?

That’s the question New Democrats and Green party members around B.C. are asking themselves after NDP MLA Leonard Krog confirmed the news revealed in this space last Sunday: He’s running to be the mayor of Nanaimo.

Why is this such a big deal? Because Krog’s move sets up a crucial byelection in which the governing NDP-Green alliance’s hold on power will be put to the test.

If the NDP loses Krog’s Nanaimo seat to the Liberals, it will deadlock the B.C. legislature in a 43-43 tie, likely triggering a general election.

Talk about rolling the political dice. But Krog doesn’t think it’s a gamble at all.

“This is a solid NDP seat,” Krog told me. “I wouldn’t be doing this if I wasn’t confident in our party’s ability to retain it.”

Local history backs him up. Nanaimo is a working-class city that has elected an NDP MLA in 13 of the last 15 elections. Krog easily won the seat last year, taking 46 per cent of the vote and beating his Liberal opponent by more than 3,800 votes.

But provincial history? That’s something else.

Over the last 37 years, the governing party’s record in provincial byelections is an ugly one: Just two wins (both by then-premier Christy Clark) versus 22 losses.

Even “safe” government seats are vulnerable in byelections, as Clark’s Liberals discovered back in 2012.

That was the year the NDP won a byelection in the riding of Chilliwack-Hope, an otherwise unassailable Liberal fortress. In 2009, former Liberal cabinet minister Barry Penner won the seat by 3,347 votes. In the byelection just three years later, the NDP candidate won by 1,429 votes.

None of which bothers Krog.

“This would not be a normal byelection,” he said. “This is not a tired, old government. Premier John Horgan is still very popular on the street. The NDP would win.”

Unless they don’t, of course. And as the New Democrats ponder what could go wrong, just consider a few of the possibilities:

DIVERSITY MANDATE: Under the NDP’s diversity policy, the party’s byelection candidate must be a member of an “equity-seeking group.”

Equity-seeking groups are defined as: “Women, persons of colour, Aboriginal people, persons with disabilities, lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgendered, transsexual or intersex persons and young people between 18 and 25 years of age.”

In other words able-bodied, heterosexual, white men age 26 and older — like Leonard Krog, for example — will be banned from running.

Krog personally disagrees with the equity mandate.

“I have questioned the value of this party policy for a number of years,” he said. “It has been the source of great consternation in several constituencies and led to some fights.”

His complaint about the policy? It unfairly disqualifies people who might be great NDP candidates.

“No question about that,” he said. “If you’re not allowing people to run based on their gender or other criteria, it rules out a significant number of people.”

Does he worry the policy might result in the party passing over the best possible candidate in a make-or-break byelection?

“No, I’m not worried,” he said. “In a city of 90,000, there will be a pool of qualified people. We will have an excellent candidate, no doubt.”

But I’m already hearing grumbling from some NDP quarters over the policy.

TAXES, TAXES, TAXES: Nanaimo is one of the cities where the NDP is imposing its controversial “speculation tax” on people who own multiple properties. The tax increases next year.

The NDP’s new “payroll tax” on businesses, municipalities, school districts, health authorities and non-profit community organizations also kicks in on Jan. 1.

If Horgan delays calling the byelection until next spring, voters could be going to the polls at the same time an anti-tax backlash is peaking.

That could prompt Horgan to call the byelection early.

Krog has said he will remain an MLA until the municipal election in October, meaning Horgan could send Nanaimo voters to the polls in a pre-Christmas byelection — before his grinch-style taxes kick in.

THE LIBERALS: With the NDP’s hold on power hanging in the balance, the B.C. Liberals will search high and low for the best possible byelection candidate. And the Liberals won’t have a restrictive “equity mandate” that disqualifies anyone.

What if the Liberals unveil a star candidate? And what if the B.C. Green party splits the vote and helps the Liberals pull off a government-toppling upset?

I hear some in the NDP ranks hope the Greens sit the byelection out, not run a candidate, and endorse the NDP candidate instead to ensure a power-preserving victory.

But Green party Leader Andrew Weaver quickly ruled that out.

“We believe in giving British Columbians something to vote for, not against,” Weaver said. “The B.C. Greens look forward to building on our growing momentum in any and all byelections.”

But if the Greens split the vote, and the Liberals sneak up the middle, it will only create momentum to a snap election that Weaver doesn’t want.

With so many risks and variables in play, you probably won’t be surprised to hear Premier John Horgan wasn’t thrilled with Krog’s decision to run for mayor.

“He was surprised,” Krog said. “He asked that I reconsider. But my mind was made up.”

The likeliest outcome: Krog wins the mayor’s job. The NDP wins the byelection. The NDP-Green alliance stays in power.

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