Which WR will be the difference? Photo from Getty Images & US Presswire.

Well I’ve had a week and a half to try to decide which way I was going to go for my Super Bowl winner and I still don’t feel good about it. But it’s time to get it out there anyway, so I’ll talk it through with you and see if I stick to my guns with the winner.

My head says, “Steelers, you dummy, pick the Steelers. Defense wins championships.” And that old adage is definitely true, we’ve seen it with the Ravens and the Bucs and the Giants and the Patriots in recent years. The Steelers have one of the best defenses in the league, there’s no argument about that. The Cardinals defense has been porous at times during the season but they’ve really picked it up in the playoffs. They’ve picked everything up in the playoffs though. Still, defensive edge goes to Pittsburgh.

Since we talked defense, I guess we should talk offense now. Who has the advantage here? Both QB’s have been to the Super Bowl and both have won one. I’d give Arizona a slight edge in wide receivers, well actually it might be a really big edge if Hines Ward doesn’t go or isn’t 100%. Larry Fitzgerald has been a beast and there’s no reason to think that Pitt is going to shut him down. They might limit him compared to some other teams, but he will make some plays. Pittsburgh gets the edge in the running game, though AZ has been pretty good there in recent weeks as well. As for QB? I like Warner better than Big Ben but the fact is they’re both just as capable of throwing crippling interceptions as they are throwing game winning TD’s. They’re both scary to bet on. Offensive edge to the Cardinals.

Another way is to go with the hot team. Who’s hotter? Both of them have rolled through the playoffs, so I really can’t distinguish there. Pitt has the overall better record against better competition. Arizona’s best wins have been in the playoffs, while Pitt has faced off with Baltimore three times and come out the winner, not to mention taking out the Chargers, another really hot team.

Coaching? Both coaches have all of 2 years head coaching experience, though Whisenhunt was a coordinator at least with the Super Bowl winning Steelers. Tomlin has a ring as the Bucs defensive backs coach. Whisenhunt has the advantage of knowing the Pitt system rather well, seeing as he was there, but I’m sure Tomlin’s people have changed things up some. I’d call coaching even.

X factors:

The Steelers have been here before. They know what this game is like, they know the hoopla heading in and they know how to deal with it. The Cardinals are almost entirely new to games of this magnitude. Warner has been there before, Edge has dealt with the playoffs year in and year out, but that’s about it. Can Warner get the rest of the team as focused as they need to be going in? I’m sure that he’ll try and distractions will be kept to a minimum, but there will be some.

Big Ben. Ben has lived for a couple of years now knowing that his team won the Super Bowl despite him, not because of him. He turned in one of the worst QB performances in a big game that I’ve ever been unfortunate enough to see. I honestly hated the Steelers for at least a year after that Super Bowl, because it was such a terrible game that it offended my senses. So, this time out, Ben has to prove himself. These Cardinals are not nearly as inept as those Seahawks were and he’s going to have to actually make some plays to win. Will he step it up and get it done?

The “nobody believed in us” team. The Cardinals have had the fun of playing the whole postseason as the team that everybody was picking to be one and done. You may recall reading those very words from me a few weeks ago in my first playoff prediction. Everybody sneered about how terribly they were playing down the stretch and what a crappy division they played in. They used that each and every week to help motivate them, as these things seem to, and each week they’ve come out on top. They’ll be singing that tune leading up to this game and if they win, we’ll be hearing it as they dump champagne and beer all over one another. It’s a powerful motivator, silly though it might be.

So…with all that to consider, which way do I go? Go with the gut and say the Steelers or go with the heart and pick the Cards? Going into this week I fully intended on putting it on the line and picking the Cardinals. There’s something that feels good about them, something that feels right. The Warner story, Larry Fitzgerald showing his awesomeness both on and off the field (if you have not heard that young man give an interview, I beg you to listen to one, what a humble, good man he seems to be), Edge earning his ring, the team that nobody believed in achieving the pinnacle of their sport…that’s the thing I would love to see happen. But do I think it will? Every day that gets closer to the game I find myself leaning toward Pittsburgh, the team I know, the defense I trust. When in doubt you go with the defense. Sigh.

Alright, it’s time to man up (or woman up in my case) and make my pick. So I’ll commit…Steelers by 3. Special teams, which I did not discuss, makes a difference and Santonio Holmes sets up a couple short fields for Pitt. So the head is winning out over the heart, but this is one pick I hope I actually get wrong. Happy Super Bowling to you all, have some wings and beer and nachos and whatever else for me! And go Cards! (I can’t help it, I gotta root for the underdog this time!)

The draft process is young, and I will be posting more in depth analysis as the offseason continues, but I just wanted to get a quick post out there to get a feel for the site, and to get my initial top 15 list out there to you all.

I still find it hard to believe that the Arizona Cardinals are in the Super Bowl. I watched them get trounced this year on the road several times. Being a New England Patriots fan it kind of makes me mad to see a team that didn’t even show up for their game against the Patriots and got embarrassed to be playing for the championship.

On the other hand, I find it rather interesting to see the Cardinals finally make it to the big game. They have played much better in the playoffs than they ever did in any regular season game I saw them in, mainly because they are running the ball more and playing better defense. Of course Kurt Warner, Larry Fitzgerald, and Anquan Boldin have mostly played very well all year long. Those three certainly have played championship level football.

It does not surprise me to see the Steelers in the Super Bowl. Nor would it have surprised me to see the Ravens. I am a believer that defense wins championships and the Steelers and Ravens both have championship caliber defenses.

So how do I see Super Bowl XLIII shaping up?

Arizona’s Offense versus Pittsburgh’s Defense

This is the matchup that is going to decide who wins this game. The matchup is not good for Arizona.

If there is any weakness in the Steelers’ defense it is the cornerbacks. Now don’t get me wrong, Ike Taylor and Deshea Townsend are pretty solid defensive backs. It’s just that the rest of the defense is great. And they are going against great receivers in Larry Fitzgerald, Steve Breaston, and Anquan Boldin, who match up very well against them. All things being equal the Cardinals should eat the Steelers secondary up just like they did the Panthers and Eagles. The X Factor is Troy Polamalu and how they use him to limit the damage.

But will Kurt Warner have enough time to throw the ball? The heart of the Steelers defense is the linebackers. And the Cardinals offensive line, as well as they have played to this point, have not seen a defense like this since they played, and lost, to the Giants. While Warner and the offensive line did well against the Eagles’ blitzes, the Steelers are better athletically at the linebacker position and have a better all around defense.

And running the ball? Forget it. The Cardinals will have to run the ball some but they won’t get anywhere against this defense. This game will come down to Warner flinging the ball down the field to his receivers. I suspect he’ll spend a lot of time on his back, fumbling, or throwing interceptions.

Pittsburgh’s Offense versus Arizona’s Defense

The Pittsburgh offense actually does not match up that well against the Cardinals, at least not the Cardinals we’ve seen in the playoffs.

I don’t know why people want to insist that Big Ben is some kind of great All Pro quarterback. He isn’t. He’s big, strong, and hard to bring down. He’s also great on broken plays. But he also tends to hold the ball too long and make mistakes. And the running game has been inconsistent. That is not to say I don’t think Big Ben is an excellent quarterback, but Canton bound he is not. His goal should be to play mistake free football, which he has managed to do so far in the playoffs.

Arizona’s Rodgers-Cromartie is an excellent cornerback with a great future who should be able handle Santonio Holmes and his speed. And if the Cardinals defensive line and linebackers play as well has they have the last few weeks they should be able to limit Willie Parker in the running game.

And like Troy Polamalu on the other side of the field, Cardinal strong safety Adrian Wilson is an excellent player against the run and the pass.

The X Factor for the Steelers on offense will be Hines Ward. If he can make the tough inside catches he’s known for, that will allow the Steelers to move the ball down the field.

I don’t expect the Steelers offense to score a ton of points, however.

Special Teams

On paper special teams are pretty even, although Steve Breaston returning kicks gives the Cardinals a better opportunity for a big return. Despite an awful kicking game last week by the Cardinals, both on kickoffs and punts, I don’t expect to see the same level of performance in the Super Bowl. The Cardinals Neil Rackers has a stronger leg than Jeff Reed but I don’t foresee long field goals being a factor unless it’s at the end of the game in a desperate situation. So mark this as a draw.

SO, THEN WHO AM I PICKING?

The Steelers defense is so good that they should be able to do enough to win. I would not be surprised to see a turnover fest by the Cardinals if they get behind early and have to throw the ball. Warner is not always known for being careful with the football. If that happens it could be a Steelers blowout. But let’s give the Cardinals the benefit of the doubt and say it’s going to be close.

The Arizona Cardinals are in the Super Bowl. Has a weird ring to it doesn’t it? The Arizona Cardinals? Are you sure? The same team that got blown out in the regular season every time they stepped out of the comfortable confines of the Arizona desert? What gives?

What gives is this is not the same Arizona Cardinals team we saw in the regular season. They still have the high flying offense lead by Kurt Warner, Larry Fitzgerald, and Anquan Boldin. But they finally found that running the ball, and sticking with it enough to keep defenses honest, makes their offense even better. And the Arizona defense is playing better than it has all season and right in time for the playoffs.

They Cardinals offense is fun to watch. They put some very nice drives together, and throw in a big play or two, and it results in a 24-6 halftime lead.

The Philadelphia Eagles made a valiant comeback in the second half with tight end Brent Celek catching pass after pass, and DeSean Jackson making a great play on a tipped ball for a touchdown to take a 25-24 lead in the fourth quarter. At that point I suspect many people felt the Cardinals would fall apart and lose the game. Their offense had gone three and out a few times in the half and really didn’t have much of an opportunity to do anything. But Kurt Warner calmly lead the team on a 72 yard drive resulting in a game winning touchdown pass to Tim Hightower and a Super Bowl birth.

A few things of note in this game. Larry Fitzgerald continues to raise his game above his already Pro Bowl level. He has had a phenomenal postseason and is simply amazing.

On the other side of the ball, Donovan McNabb was awful. While he put up a great effort, he missed receivers on many occasions and was often inaccurate with this throws.

And the kicking game by both teams was atrocious. I have never seen so many kickoffs go out of bounds, so many lousy punts, and we even had a missed extra point by the Eagles. In fact, it was a game with maybe the poorest special teams play I have seen in quite some time by both teams.

But overall, this was an exciting game to watch.

MVP: Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals

Pittsburgh Steelers over Baltimore Ravens, 23-14

Wow, these two defenses are good. Very, very good. This was one of the hardest hitting games I’ve seen in a long time. The key difference in the game was the Steelers defense was able to make more plays and get three interceptions off of Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco, which lead them to victory.

Pittsburgh basically just outplayed the Ravens by a slim margin. They got a big play on a touchdown to Santonio Holmes in the first half to take a 13-7 lead to the locker room. Then nursing a 16-14 lead in the fourth quarter, Troy Polamalu intercepted a Flacco pass and ran it back for a touchdown and sealed the deal.

This game, as expected, was about defense and hard hitting. It didn’t disappoint.