PUNE: An unexpected variable in the shape of devastation inflicted by torrential rains may play a crucial role in deciding poll outcomes. A delayed Rs 4,000cr relief package may not be enough to undo the damage to Congress's and NCP's poll outcomes following death by suicide of 22 farmers in Marathwada and north and west Maharashtra.

The unseasonal rain in February ruined standing crop in 28 districts in these regions. The worst hit was Marathwada (eight LS Seats) that reported 19 of the 22 deaths.

No such deaths were reported from the 12 constituencies in western Maharashtra, the sugar belt. But rain and hailstorms between February 22 and March 12 destroyed crops and orchards here. This includes Solapur district that has two key seats. Solapur city is Union home minister Sushilkumar Shinde's seat, Mhada is represented by agriculture minister Sharad Pawar. Crops of green gram, jowar, wheat, vegetables and sugarcane spread over 215,585 hectares and orchards spread over 27,217 hectares have been ravaged.

Though senior leaders are enthused over the EC's nod to the Rs 4,000 crore package, party workers and candidates rue the delay in its sanction, saying the government woke up too late and much more would need to be done to salvage poll prospects. The opposition is all set to exploit the delay in announcing the package and cash in on farmers' desperation in rural Maharashtra. The opposition also plans to corner the government on its failure to announce a complete loan waiver.

"We cannot forget how Sharad Pawar had boasted that he and the Union government had announced the previous loan waiver of Rs 72,000 crore. If it was possible then, why not now?" queries BJP leader Gopinath Munde.

Per hectare compensation under the Rs 4,000cr package works out to a paltry amount. Kailas Bhoasale, Nashik division president of the grape growers association, says production cost of one-acre vineyard is around Rs 3.8 lakh per hectare. The state has announced assistance of a mere Rs 25,000 per hectare for damage to orchards.

Congress and NCP nominees are also fretting that the promised help may not reach farmers before polling date. "Merely announcing a package is of no use as farmers need the funds now. Party seniors should realize that the promise must translate into actual money being deposited in farmers' accounts, at least before polling date," a senior NCP leader, pointing out that nine constituencies in the sugar bowl vote on April 17.