The Oil Price Surge Indicator Says There's A 100% Chance Of A New Recession

“Oil prices are always a precursor to recessions. We hit
the magic 100% YoY rise in November 2009 and went on to hit the
third highest YoY% rise in the history of oil markets…

“The magic 100% level in the YoY change in oil gives us a 100%
chance of a recession in the succeeding twelve months. This
indicator suggests that ISM will fall to 40, or even 35, in the
coming months before recovering…”