North Korea

Nuclear Record Isn't Perfect, But It's Progress

October 20, 1994

The cover of the June 13 Time magazine asked "Is Kim Il Sung bluffing, or would he go to war?" Kim's death the next month brought a Newsweek magazine cover emblazoned, "Korea After Kim/The Headless Beast."

The headlines of this summer provide a useful reminder of the context in which negotiations between the United States and North Korea have been undertaken. The talks have produced an agreement that calls for North Korea to freeze and, eventually, eliminate its capability to build nuclear arms.

The flaw in the agreement is that North Korea has 10 years or more in which to do this but in the meantime will receive immediate economic and political benefits. Some critics are already arguing that the United States has given away too much, that North Korea is being rewarded for its renegade status.

The agreement, however, has some strengths, one of which is the absence of any clearly superior alternatives. The aim of U.S. policy is to prevent North Korea from obtaining nuclear weapons or, if it already has a small number, from increasing its arsenal. The agreement, if North Korea abides by it, will accomplish that, and the pact is structured such that if North Korea fails to meet its obligations, the benefits it will be receiving can be cut off. As for other options, there is no guarantee that an economic boycott can alter North Korea's behavior, and military action would invite a North Korean invasion of South Korea, war and massive fatalities.

Kim's death alone offered reason to place a renewed emphasis on a diplomatic solution to U.S. problems with North Korea. North Korea also has cause to pursue diplomacy because of its increasing political and economic isolation with the end of the Cold War. South Korea and Japan support the agreement, and they are the nations whose security is most immediately and directly affected. The agreement looks like an important step away from the possibility of another war on the Korean peninsula and toward new stability with the possibilities for real peace that brings.