Wednesday, October 21, 2015

Bob is back with his streaming defense articles - I know you all have missed him. Wait no longer!

Hello folks, I’m back from a vacation in sunny Scottsdale
AZ, but still recovering from bronchitis that I got on my last two days there. That’s
gonna be my excuse for missing last week’s article and I’m sticking to it. And
looking back I’m glad I didn’t make any huge predictions, because it was a very
strange week for defenses. The top 5 were: MIA, PHI, DEN, NOS, and HOU. Notice
only DEN and PHI are highly owned. I’m going to have to suspend my bias against
PHI at this point. But I don’t think many saw MIA and NOS as savior streamers
last week. There were still some believers in HOU, owned at 76%, but that was
their best performance to date.

Take a look at the top 5 generous offenses we have: CHI in
1st, SF in 2nd, CLE in 3rd, SEA in 4th,
and DET in 5th. It makes you consider your targets a little more
carefully. JAC proved a good target last week, as did WAS, but they are the 11th
and 10th most generous, respectively, at this point. So we have to
look more closely at the matchups this week. Last week sobered us up as to
locking into our targets.

So what does this week look like? Here are a couple of links
you can use to help you sift through the quagmire. As usual, my analysis, may
or may not align with the pros.

Here are the ownership and projections for Defs this week of
the ‘highly owned’ defenses. Highly owned being better than 75% this week.

Highly Owned Defs

Team

Opp

Proj

Owned

Comments

SEA

@SF

9.43

100%

SF gives up the 2nd most points to DEFs, and SEA needs to right
the ship. They will do it with Def, start with confidence

ARI

BAL

9.17

98%

ARI
is highly owned based on AVG points scored, but it is a bit deceiving since most
points came on only two games. BAL is stingy giving up DEF points, 11th least
points given up, I'd temper my expectations.

DEN

Bye

0

96%

The top Def is not available this week, ouch

GB

Bye

0

91%

The 5th best Def is not available this week, another ouch.

BUF

@JAC

8.89

90%

BUF is in London and there's a bit of turmoil with the DEF
coaching staff, look for some changes to return to early season form and put
a hurt on a Bortles who was harassed constantly by a weak HOU pass rush last
week.

NE

NYJ

7.5

87%

This should be a good week for NE, they are planning on forcing
the Jets to pass, and you know what happens then…start 'em.

PHI

@CAR

7.55

78%

OK, I'm a little biased against the Eagles DEF I admit, but I
don't see them catching Cam. I'd temper my expectations and that's as far as
I can go on this team.

STL

CLE

9.86

78%

STL is heating up again and they are at home against a team that
will tend to drop back a lot. CLE is the 3rd most generous to DEFs, I like
this matchup this week, start 'em.

CAR

PHI

8.33

78%

You saw what WAS did against PHI last game just think what a
seasoned DEF will do, start 'em.

So I like only five of highly owned this week, but here are
some juicy streams that could outperform and one I would avoid.

Team

Opp

Proj

Owned

Comment

HOU

@MIA

8.29

67%

I think this is a trap game. I'd pick MIA as a defense this week
before HOU. Don't fall for one week performance against a weak offensive line. Stay
away.

WAS

TB

7.87

4%

WAS is still not owned like they should be. This is a great matchup
at home against a good target. Give them a start.

PIT

@KC

7.32

17%

KC is in ruins, and the PIT Def will take advantage of it, give
them a start this week.

ATL

@TEN

6.84

32%

Mariota is taking a lot of hits lately. ATL laid an egg on Def
last week, but I like a rebound this week.

MIN

@DET

6.62

33%

DET won last week against a weak DEF that still got 8 points,
watch what MIN does this week to Stafford, ouch.

That’s it for this week. Keep reading and keep streaming. Remember,
every week there’s always one DEF on the waiver list that can come through for
you that week. It’s just knowing which one it is….

About Me

So why Fantasy Football Librarian? I have been playing fantasy football now for 12 years. I'm also a librarian at a museum in New York City (though my family and I now live in Knoxville, Tennessee) and I love to research stuff. What could be better than combining my love for football and research? So in September 2006, I launched FFLibrarian to try and create one place for fantasy football fans to find the info they need to succeed in their leagues.
From 2007-2013, I conducted an accuracy analysis of the experts' rankings with support from the Fantasy Sports Trade Association, and have written columns for The New York Times' Fifth Down blog and the Bruno Boys.
Please feel free to contact me if you have any questions or suggestions. Here's to the 2016 season!