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CREDIT MARKETS; Fed Signals Another Rate Rise

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The Federal Reserve yesterday sent a strong signal that it has moved to push short-term interest rates still higher.

Around midday the Fed aggressively drained reserves from the banking system. At the time of its open market operation, the overnight Federal funds rate was trading at 9 9/16 percent.

Analysts said that on a purely technical basis the move was unnecessary, since it came at the start of a two-week reporting period for banks in which they report the average of their reserves.

The Fed could have waited until later in the period to see if it needed to drain reserves. But Wednesday's report of an unexpected surge in consumer prices in January, coupled with rising concern among market participants that the Fed was lagging in its fight against inflation, may have persuaded the central bank to move quickly. 'The Clearest Signal'

''This was the clearest signal we have seen from them in some time,'' said Maria Fiorini Ramirez, a managing director at Drexel Burnham Lambert. ''Instead of raising the funds rate by one-eighth of a point, they bumped it by a quarter of a point.''

Mrs. Ramirez said the tightening pushed the target range for the funds rate to 9 5/8 percent to 9 3/4 percent, from a previous range of 9 3/8 percent to 9 1/2 percent. ''A 10 percent funds rate may not be too far away,'' she said.

Although note and bond prices ended lower on the day, the Fed's action helped to bring bond prices off their intra-day lows.

Virtually all of the upward movement in short-term rates came after the Fed's actions early in the day. The announcement that the Chase Manhattan Bank and the Republic National Bank had raised their prime lending rate by half a percentage point, to 11 1/2 percent, had no impact in the credit markets.

''Bonds traded very well after the Fed entered the market,'' said James Capra, a senior vice president at Shearson Lehman Government Securities. As in the past, Mr. Capra said, ''the long end continues to trade better when it sees an aggressive move by the Fed.'' He added, ''And this is the most aggressive non-discount rate move that they have done.''

By late yesterday, the Treasury's 8 7/8 percent bonds were offered at a price of 97 6/32, down 11/32 on the day, to yield 9.15 percent. Before the Fed entered the system, the closely watched issue traded as low as 96 7/8. Bill Rates Spurt

In late trading, the 8 7/8 percent 10-year notes were offered at 97 1/32, down 10/32, to yield 9.34 percent. And the 9 3/8 percent two-year notes sold on Tuesday were offered on a when-issued basis at a price to yield 9.57 percent.

The Fed's move to raise the funds rate came just before dealers placed bids on an auction of $7.75 billion worth of new five-year notes.

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The notes were sold at an average yield of 9.49 percent, the highest on a five-year issue since August 1985, and well above the average yield of 8.97 percent at the last auction on Nov. 23.

By late yesterday, three-month Treasury bills were offered at a discount rate of 8.58 percent, up 7 basis points, or hundredths of a point. Six-month bills were offered at a discount rate of 8.59 percent, up 12 basis points. And one-year bills were offered at a discount rate of 8.72 percent, up 11 basis points.

While recent statistics indicate that inflationary pressures are building, some analysts said that too much was being read into the numbers.

''There is too much inflation hysteria right now,'' said Lawrence A. Kudlow, chief economist at Bear, Stearns & Company. ''People are ignoring some important monetary trends, including the fact that money supply growth has been declining for two years, that gold prices are declining and that commodity prices are leveling off.'' Inflation Seen as Peaking

Those signs suggest that inflationary pressures are peaking now, Mr. Kudlow said. ''We think inflation will peak at 5 percent to 5.5 percent in the first half, fall to 4 percent in the second half and then move to 3 percent next year,'' he said.

Nevertheless, Mr. Kudlow said that to stabilize the dollar and to calm fears among international investors, the Fed should raise the discount rate by a full percentage point from its current level of 6 1/2 percent.

In its weekly report, the Federal Reserve said yesterday that all three measures of the nation's money supply declined in the week ended Feb. 13. The report had no impact on prices.

Prices of secondary corporate and tax-exempt municipal issues sagged in concert with Treasury securities. Dealers said that prices of most corporate issues ended one-quarter to three-eighths of a point lower. Prices of municipal bonds closed down by about half a point.

Activity in the new-issue market was highlighted by a $250 million offering of guaranteed subordinated capital notes for the RBSG Capital Corporation, a subsidiary of the Royal Bank of Scotland Group, P.L.C.

The 10 1/8 percent notes, which mature March 1, 2004, are noncallable for life. They were priced at $99.25 to yield 10.223 percent, 85.5 basis points above the prevailing yield on 10-year Treasury notes at the time of pricing.

Merrill Lynch Capital Markets acted as lead manager for the underwriting, which is rated A-1 by Moody's Investors Service and A-plus by Standard & Poor's.

A version of this article appears in print on February 24, 1989, on Page D00013 of the National edition with the headline: CREDIT MARKETS; Fed Signals Another Rate Rise. Order Reprints|Today's Paper|Subscribe