It occurred to me that Sheen really should have gone supporting-- as much as that is category fraud-- since he's by far the lesser of the two characters. He doesn't have a shot at a lead actor nod, but you're right, he's pretty great in it.

I'm looking forward to seeing this one again the more I think about it .

I think they'll place Michael Sheen in supporting when it's all said and done. I think the final five will be Rourke, Penn, Clint, Leo, and Langella. Richard Jenkins will have to fight all season long to break up that lineup. I think the most vulnerable of those five is Leo.

Acting-wise, I also think Leo is the weakest of the bunch. It's his star power that's keeping him afloat. As I see it, Penn, Rourke, Eastwood, and Langella are locks. It'll come down to Jenkins vs. DiCaprio.

And I don't know how Sheen can be put in supporting? He's a title character who's in almost every scene (if not more than Langella).

e dot... do we really know about Clint in gran torino though? I'll admit if he's any good and if the movie is good they'll be excited about it but do we know this? NBR isn't exactly a reliable bellweather. They love him even more than Oscar and they make REALLY odd choices sometimes

i'm holding out hope that unless he actually deserves it they ignore Clint for once and give someone who's contributed a lot to the industry with no recognition really a chance.

adam k -- y'all know i love Brad (easily one of my favorite movie stars of my life) but i don't think he has a good shot even if Benjamin Button is huge. (even the GLobes will be difficult since most of the contenders are set for the Drama race).

He's obscured by f/x a lot (and that doesn't get them excited like latex does) or rather he is acting through f/x (like um...andy serkis, only it's more recognizably brad) and they don't really care about that. Plus passive observing character. Cate & Taraji are the ones who get the more awardable type of scenes.

but even so i could see BB as a big contender without any acting nominations.

It's funny you mention distracting structure, Nat. I have a couple of questions. Does that structure have anything to do with it being adapted from a play?Which film (Doubt or Frost/Nixon) do you think suffers too much in that way (being too theatrical, too "stage-y")? Which do you think has a better shot at a BP nom?

katey well BB might get acting nods... who knows. But it's not an actors film the way something like Rev Road is.

Anyway... it's not unheard of. Remember 2003: 3 of the BP nominees had no Oscar nods. Without Mystic River there would've been practically no acting nominations for Best Picture contenders.

the know nothing unlike the case with Doubt i haven't seen the play this time. So i couldn't say. It's just structured like it's a documentary (talking heads and all) only it's not a documentary. It kept taking me out of the movie but otherwise I liked it. I never like Ron Howard movies so I'm thinking it has a good chance with Oscar since they don't have anything against his movies the way I do ;)

eDot isn't it funny how some stars are considered "snubbed" merely by working in the first place ;) like they don't have to do anything actually worth calling "BEST" (Changeling. zzzz) to be considered snubbed.

Derek i agree. except for the all three inferior performances part. I lovelovelove his work in gilbert grape. Love it. But he's terrific in RR

See, I don't like Ron Howard movies to begin with, so I have to overcome a lot of biases just to be able to see it and view it objectively. Plus, someone once broke up with me because I didn't like "A Beautiful Mind" so I have bad associations with Mr. Howard.

I still think that either Doubt, Revolutionary Road or The Reader will be shut out of the BP race because of the NBR awards.

i don't think the NBR has that kind of power. THE READER wasn't going to make it too best picture regardless (too distant emotionally ---even though that;s what the material called for so i'm glad they went that way)

as for DOUBT and REV ROAD... i guess we wait and see how the GLOBES & BFCA respond

I wouldn't be surprised to see if the structural problems Nathaniel mentions actually came from the play (which I have read). Anyway, I don't have high hopes (I don't think the play is all that anyway), but I will say that there is no way Sheen is supporting Langella. He's either leading or he's leading.

I was somewhat disappointed in Langella's performance, in that his accent seemed to waver too much. There were times that he was trying really hard to imitate the real Nixon, and times when he just didn't bother.

I think that Sheen was better in that respect, as he didn't even try to imitate the real Frost.

If it were come down to Langella vs. Jenkins for the 5th slot, I hope it would be Jenkins.

On another topic, last weekend I caught "Eldorado," Belgium's entry in the Foreign Film category; it's playing at an arthouse here in Montréal. It's interesting to see the Belgian version of an American road movie, but there's no way that it will get a nomination, IMHO.

DiCaprio has little support right now. The film got nominated by the HFPA, but I think it's going to be totally snubbed by the SAG. And critics are divided. Some really hate it. Jenkins is more of a first place getter. He'll get more 1 places and will sneak in over Di Caprio.