Ex-CIA Analyst Lisa Ruth: It's No Surprise Iraq Is Unraveling

The recent outbreak of violence in Iraq is something that those in the CIA and the Defense Department have likely been warning the Obama administration about for some time, says former CIA and LIGNET analyst Lisa Ruth.

But Ruth contends that "every analyst in the agency" has been warning "for months, years" that things have not been going well in Iraq.

"This has been going on for a long, long time and things are now deteriorating. Maybe that's a better word," Ruth said.

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The former CIA analyst explained that by the time this type of news goes public, it it likely already "way down the road."

"I have absolutely no doubt the agency has been warning that this has been going on," Ruth said. "Probably not only the agency — [the Department of Defense] and all the intelligence services."

"This is not a surprise," she added. "The signs have been in place for a long time and the divisions have been increasing, so absolutely. My guess: Very, very strong intelligence has warned about this."

The violence in Iraq by the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), a jihadist group with forces from the two countries, has resulted in Iraq near a state of collapse and Iraqi security forces laying down their arms and uniforms.

"You're talking about a porous border situation here," Ruth explained. "Really, they're building on each other. We know the situation in Syria is bad again, getting worse. We know the situation in Iraq is bad and getting worse."

"ISIS is winning," she said. "You've got a situation where they're getting stronger both in Iraq and in Syria and they're feeding on each other."

Syria's involvement in Iraq is also something that "has been going on for a long time," and Ruth explained that this is "why the U.S. and Western countries have not been able to come to a decision on arming the rebels in Syria — part of it is ISIS."

Ruth contends the other factor that has played into the increasing violence in Iraq is "the result of an early withdrawal."

And this needs to be a major concern when it comes to pulling out of Afghanistan, too, because if it's not done properly, we're just "setting up the Taliban to come back."

Ruth says that President Barack Obama may opt to help out with air strikes, but "he has specifically said that we're not going back into Iraq," which puts the United States in "this very difficult position."

The recent outbreak of violence in Iraq is something that those in the CIA and the Defense Department have likely been warning the Obama administration about for some time, says former CIA and LIGNET analyst Lisa Ruth.