Wednesday, August 17, 2016

Global Fight Against IS: Singapore’s Role in Counter-Terrorism

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No. 207/2016 dated 17 August 2016Global Fight Against IS:Singapore’s Role in Counter-Terrorism

By Juhi Ahuja

Synopsis

On
2 August 2016, the Prime Minister of Singapore announced the state’s
intention to enhance its support for the global coalition to fight
against Islamic State (IS). This has raised concerns that it would make
the island more susceptible to terror attacks. However, this was a
strategic decision which both intensifies Singapore’s defence against
IS, and its relationship with the US.Commentary

SINGAPORE
PRIME Minister Lee Hsien Loong’s recent official visit to Washington on
the invitation of President Barack Obama has drawn much media attention
in Singapore and the surrounding region. While in the United States, PM
Lee announced Singapore’s intention to step up support for the US-led
coalition in the fight against the so-called Islamic State in the Middle
East. He announced that after assessing the current situation in the
war-torn region, Singapore would deploy a medical team to Iraq and
soldiers from the Singapore Armed Forces (SAF) Army Deployment Force for
protection.

Amid fears that further support to the coalition
will make Singapore more prone to terror attacks, it must also be
understood that in doing so, Singapore attempts to safeguard its vital
interests on all fronts to ensure its security. Along with defending its
national security, its support for the coalition also has the impact of
reaffirming diplomatic ties with the United States in a climate of
unrest in the Southeast Asian region stoked by tensions in the South
China Sea.Security Threat Either Way

The
manner and scope of IS is currently such that attacks are carried out
in countries all over the world by individuals or affiliated groups
motivated by a similar ideology. Given that Singapore has already been
established as an IS target, it is liable to terror attacks regardless
of its participation in the global coalition against the terrorist
organisation. As PM Lee stated in a press conference after this
announcement: “If they [terrorists] see Indonesia and Malaysia as
legitimate targets, all the more Singapore (as) a rational, open,
cosmopolitan country, and not what they think countries should be ...
should be attacked.”

As illustrated by the recently foiled terror
plot in Batam, and other successful attacks in neighbouring Malaysia
and Indonesia, Singapore is situated in a vulnerable environment. The
government of Singapore identified the threat to its national security
from similar extremist violence when it became aware of the Jemaah
Islamiyah network in 2001.

The ideology that propels such
extremist violence justifies a threat to Singapore regardless of its
participation in any international coalition to fight the IS. Had
Singapore chosen not to be part of the coalition, it is unlikely that
threat perceptions would change as Singapore continues to have good
relations with the US and other Western states.

Strategic Great-Power Balancing

As
part of Singapore’s larger defence strategy, its interest lies in
managing great-power relations between the US and China such that both
states maintain friendly terms with the island state. It does so by
forging alliances with more powerful states to protect itself from
overbearing influence from other powerful states. It is in the interest
of Singapore that either state (US or China) does not feel threatened by
the other’s relationship with Singapore, as it could upset Singapore’s
strategic interests in either state and in the regional power balance.

In
light of the unstable South China Sea disputes, Singapore has been
careful to maintain strategic distance from the issue, despite pressure
from both the US and China. Although the fight against IS and the South
China Sea disputes are two separate issues, Singapore must carefully
weigh all its international commitments to calculate how each can affect
the other.

Its commitment to the coalition is likely to signal
its reaffirmation of Singapore’s interest to enhance strong diplomatic
ties with the US, while not signalling a threat to China – as it is a
matter of counter-terrorism and national security. US Defence Secretary
Ashton Carter has said before that some members of the coalition do not
even contribute much; a sign that some are in it just for the benefits
of being in the group.

Since the outcome of an international
tribunal ruling, China has asked Singapore to respect its position on
the South China Sea disputes, and has reminded the small state of their
critical relationship – which could potentially be jeopardised. It is
unlikely that Singapore’s membership in the coalition will affect
Singapore-China relations. Nevertheless, Singapore will have to present
its position on the South China Sea issue with care.

Fighting Terrorism and Political Pressure Together

Singapore
has significant interest in being part of the coalition and supporting
it further. In case of a terrorist attack, it will be able to gain
assistance from the US on legitimate and compassionate grounds.
Furthermore, benefits of being in the coalition and hence improving
bilateral ties with the US include reduced vulnerability to attack,
intelligence-sharing, and counter-terrorism initiatives such as
data-analytics and early-warning protection capabilities. Additionally,
Singapore and the US have agreed to extend the Combating Terrorism
Research and Development agreement for another decade.

Had
Singapore chosen not to participate in the coalition, there might have
been political and social pressure to do so – as it directly impacts
internal security and diplomatic relationships. Since Singapore
announced its intention to join the coalition in 2014 and the recent
declaration to support it further, concerned and opposing voices have
risen in the public space.

However, it must be understood that
violent extremists need almost any excuse to threaten those whom they do
not agree with. Those who are afraid of an increased security threat to
Singapore should consider both scenarios carefully, and also analyse
the implications of shying away from assisting the global coalition
against IS. The political and security setbacks could be higher for
Singapore if it is solely self-reliant.

Juhi
Ahuja is a Senior Analyst at the Centre of Excellence for National
Security (CENS), a constituent unit of the S. Rajaratnam School of
International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University (NTU),
Singapore.

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