Scenarios abound as basketball prelims conclude

SYDNEY, Australia (AP) - All because of 12 one-thousands of a point, Canada's chances of winning a medal in men's basketball for the first time since 1936 have dropped considerably.

If things go as expected today on the final day of preliminary play, Canada will finish fourth in Group B. And nobody wants to be fourth in Group B because it means a quarterfinal matchup with the United States.

''There's no tie, not yet,'' Canada coach Jay Triano said Sunday, a day after the basketball venue was the site of some serious confusion regarding the tiebreaking formula.

Russia, Canada and Australia are likely to finish the preliminary round with 3-2 records. Under the three-way tiebreaker, Russia would be placed second, Australia third and Canada fourth.

Had they scored just one more point Saturday and lost by 17 instead of 18, Canada would have leapfrogged Australia in the tiebreaker to be assured of finishing no lower than third.

After a day of second-guessing, recalculating and re-examining the final moments of that loss, one simple fact remained: Canada can make all the controversy go away by doing just one thing beating Yugoslavia on Monday. They also could finish third if Spain surprises Australia.

''We still control our own destiny,'' Triano said.

FIBA, the world governing body of basketball, uses what it calls goal average, a formula that somewhat resembles advanced calculus, to break three-way ties. Goal average is determined by dividing points for by points against in games involving the three tied teams.

Russia beat Canada 77-59 and lost 75-71 to Australia for a goal average of 1.1045. Australia beat Russia 75-71 and lost 101-90 to Canada for a goal average of 0.9593. Canada beat Australia 101-90 and lost to Russia 77-59 for a goal average of 0.9581.

Calculator, anyone?

Wait, it gets trickier.

If Canada had played a higher-scoring game against Russia and still lost by 18, the Canadians would have beaten Australia in the tiebreaker. Had the game been even lower-scoring, 17 might not have gotten the job done.

And since Albert Einstein is not a member of the Canadian coaching staff, the floating fractions factor took more figuring than humanly possible.

''We knew that if we lost by more than 18, we're fourth. If it was less than 18, we're third. If it was 18, you have to do the math and you can't do that kind of math during a game,'' Triano said.

What Triano could have done was try for a better shot in the final 30 seconds. Instead, he called a play that led to Steve Nash dribbling away much of the shot clock and then driving the lane. Nash drew a double-team and passed to Andrew Mavis for an open 3-pointer that missed.

Other coaches might have called a play that led to a shot from closer range, or a play that had a better chance of resulting in a shooting foul and two free throws. The risk there, however, was that Canada was not in the bonus situation. So if a foul was called on Russia before a shot was attempted, Canada would only get the ball out of bounds.

''We played it like we would in a tie game in the NBA dribble the clock down to 5 seconds, take a shot and try for an offensive rebound if it misses. You don't want to give the other team a chance to score.''

Triano said Sunday he'd do it the same way if he had a chance to do it all over again.

''We had a good open look,'' he said. ''If that shot goes in, we're good. If we try something earlier and they score at the other end, we're done for sure.''

In today's Group B games, Russia (2-2) plays Angola (0-4), Canada (3-1) plays Yugoslavia (4-0) and Australia (2-2) plays Spain (1-3). In Group A, Italy (3-1) can lock up second place by defeating China (1-3), which would leave Lithuania third and France fourth.

The United States, which plays France at 4:30 p.m. (12:30 a.m. CDT), has already locked up first place in Group A.