Any questions?

Sunday, December 30, 2012

This is our latest EW count and a rally is near, coincidentally with a probable downfall of markets.

The symmetric triangle has been draw only for study purposses because we do not make decisions based on this type of chart patterns. For example, theory in this case is :"The symmetrical triangle is mainly considered to be a continuation pattern that signals a period of consolidation in a trend followed by a resumption of the prior trend".

My brother, who is a physician, and admits becoming overwhelmed when I talk to him in technical terms asked me to explain what follows in simple terms. This is what I wrote to him and I want to share it with everybody that is not skilled or familiar with Elliott waves. "The process that has been happening to the $SPX index since the year 2,000 is none other than an account of the pay growth feast we experienced in financial markets since the year 1975, when the index was 72 points and then reached 1,472 points in the year 2000, i.e. 1,400 points in only 25 years or 1,844%. The good news is that the bad times which have been going on now will end soon when the wave cycle or super cycle 2 is in place and marks the start a new growth cycle with a new cycle or Supercycle wave 3 that we imagine will have a more sustainable magnitude.

Same goes for AAPL which has had a parabolic growth from 75 to 704 (878%) in only 3 years 6 months but, its process could be just starting to develop and can have huge waves up and down just as we are trying to figure up in a chart attached. Everything has its cycle and there is no forever and ever"

If the run-up since 2009 is wave 1, that means that 2000-2009 was an ABC. Call me naive, but I don't think a correction of this magnitude would begin 7 years before the major top in 2007. The correction starting in 2007 will be my assumption going forward unless someone can help me prove myself wrong.

Also, supporting this contention is that in a secular bear market (starting in 2007), the wave 2 correction from the lows in 2009 to present has a psychological feel. That is one where the masses believe things are back on track, we made it through the bad stuff, and new highs are near. When in actuality, the economy is severely worse than it was at the start of wave 1! Since I believe that's where we are psychologically, the count from the 2009 low is a 5-3-5 zig-zag, which ended in October, 2012. Going above 1442 will invalidate this read. I would like to be convinced otherwise, because I'd like to be bullish again. It's much more fun!
-------------------------------------------
Scott Willis
Investment Analyst/Portfolio Manager
Trading Talents
Fort Worth, Texas
-------------------------------------------

I am once again exhibiting my count since 1928 to the present date, in which you can observe that in the years 1975 to 2000 a huge primary(cycle) wave 3 was developed. Price went from 72 to 1,472 in an "overwhelming" bullishness and this episode is the one responsible for the process we are now, before a cycle(supercycle) wave 3 bullish process can start its developing.
Once again, I have requested the board of Directors of the MTA for a meeting to discuss my 4 new rules to be used in the Elliott waves Market Analysis Theory; the ones I will be able to share once they have been approved.

Dear Manuel , I think we are not going to see new lows in S&P500 index. In 2008 we saw a panic . Such things occur only once in 100 years period. I do agree that we are in new cyclical bear market, but from Elliot point of view, 2009 up to 2012 we had wave 1of 5 , a clear impulse, and now we are in a wave 2 of 5.And your AAPL chart supports that..its a 4 wave that will go down possible to where A=C, but then wave 5 will target at least 880 and most probably above 1000 and that would have positive impact to investor sentiment and indexes.

it is a pleasure discussing with you. Thanks!Panos, it is a pleasure discussing with you as well...Yes, we are basically agreeing that prices are going down because we are in new cyclical bear market. In what there is an interesting discussion point is if this downfall will be bigger or not than that on 2008.I'm sorry because I haven't introduced my "particular" labeling of waves and I have made a mistake and colored a primary wave as blue and it should have been red; as I'm showing now in this new chart but, from 1991 up to 2012.In our chart we are showing an alternative count, considering that cycle wave 2 could be in place on 2009 and that will be the alternative you are subscribing. In the AAPL case, we both are right and my chart is pointing to that alternative. What I was interested in showing was that it is possible that a truncate minute wave 5 is in place, so we do not expect further upside now.

Tuesday, December 4, 2012

To our dear readers of our blog and followers on StockTwits, Twitter and tradingview, we inform you that we will use our extra time that our civil engineering profession and employer on the industries of construction and real estate, to prepare a book where, we will introduce our new 4 rules for elliott waves, including the seventh rule: "accuracy" and proper use of various tools of technical analysis, provided that the basin is in the Fibonacci sequence and other observations we noticed the market behavior in particular situations.

Monday, December 3, 2012

This is what we mean with dramatic definition, red or black when a first or third wave is in place. Here is where our fourth, fifth and sixth EW rules can help but with a lot of work and markets move quickly.

Saturday, December 1, 2012

We have twited, some minutes ago, in Stocktwits, our seventh EW rule: "The accuracy", as waves react exactly to Fibonacci, inclusive with decimals. Under the twit, we are reposting from May 21, 2012

Monday, May 21, 2012 when we call for the change of direction in the $SPX chart, because the third Elliott Waves rule: Wave four can't invade territory of wave 1 and wave one was in place at 1,292.66 and so it happens.Price, later return the downside but after confusing the market.

Editor

Ing. Manuel A. Aparicio Rabines

Bio:

I'm a civil engineer. I am a graduate of the Ponticia Universidad Católica in Lima, Peru.Since 1989 I have managed several construction and real state companies in Peru and my current position is that of President and CEO of Aricsa Holding in Lima: http://www.aricsa.com/In 2005 I became interested in Technical Analisys and have been studying it since. I have a special passion for Elliott waves and the Fibonacci sequence. My field of research is Phi (1.618... ) and its influence on the mass psychology of the participants in financial markets. My observations have led me to develop, and prove, four new rules that I believe expand our knowledge of Elliott waves.After 1 year of real time postings that have tested my hypothesis. I am now posting my predictions on the MTA forum: http://www.mta.org/ and expect sincere criticism by the technicians community from whom I want to earn their respect.

*Disclaimer

The content on this site is provided as information only and should not be taken as investment advice. All site content, including advertisements, shall not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument, or to participate in any particular trading or investment strategy. The ideas expressed on this site are solely the opinions of the author and are for entertainment purposes only. Any investment decision that results in losses or gains made based on any information on this site is not the responsibility of the author. The author may from time to time make statements about certain investment vehicles and strategies, but it is not to be taken as investment advice. Again, it is just the author expressing his opinion only.