Democrats’ Midterm Challenge: Matching Tea-Party Enthusiasm

President Barack Obama is hitting the road this week to raise campaign cash for Democrats in this year’s midterm elections, but his party may need something more than cash: higher enthusiasm.

In fact, an enthusiasm gap is emerging as perhaps Democrats’ biggest threat as they try to keep control of the Senate and avoid an erosion of their position in the House in this year’s voting. This enthusiasm gap has two sides: Low Democratic excitement, and a high level of tea-party energy that figures to help Republicans.

As previously noted in this space, renewed economic anxiety among key parts of the Democratic base—college-educated women, Hispanics, African-Americans, those in lower income brackets—threatens to sap enthusiasm at the grass roots for turning out to support the president’s party this year.

But a new analysis of numbers from the Wall Street Journal/NBC News polling team shows that the flip side of that lower enthusiasm is a high level of excitement among tea-party followers within the Republican party.

But among those who say they support the tea-party movement, 71% said they have high interest in the election—more than voters overall, more than other Republicans, and well more than Democrats. Among Democrats, by contrast, just 43% express high interest in the election.

Tea-party enthusiasm isn’t as high as it was just before the 2010 election, which produced a wave that pushed Republicans into control of the House. The numbers are captured in this chart:

But enthusiasm tends to grow as an election year unfolds, candidates are chosen and advertising and debates stoke interest. So the potential for another 2010-like peak of enthusiasm from tea-party folks is possible.

If nothing else, those numbers show the upside for Republicans in the tea-party movement, which can create headaches for the GOP establishment in other ways. They further suggest that Mr. Obama’s challenge in coming months isn’t just to help finance Democratic candidates, but to turn on the enthusiasm among their voters.

About Washington Wire

Washington Wire is one of the oldest standing features in American journalism. Since the Wire launched on Sept. 20, 1940, the Journal has offered readers an informal look at the capital. Now online, the Wire provides a succession of glimpses at what’s happening behind hot stories and warnings of what to watch for in the days ahead. The Wire is led by Reid J. Epstein, with contributions from the rest of the bureau. Washington Wire now also includes Think Tank, our home for outside analysis from policy and political thinkers.