Black Swan events revisited – gas pipelines

This has to be one of those ‘say what?’ posts. A couple of weeks ago we had that deadly explosion in San Bruno near San Francisco caused by a gas pipe explosion of some variety. So now in the interests of transparency PG&E have been required to release details of any pipes that are considered potentially dangerous or requiring attention. Maps included.

Well if you focus in on the #44 on the map, there is an 18’ foot segment near Menlo Park that is being ‘reviewed’.

Description: PG&E is conducting an engineering review of 18 feet of pipe near Dunbarton St. and Donahoe St. in Menlo Park. Based on this review, PG&E will determine whether any repair or replacement is warranted.

One Response

This has nothing to do with black swans. This is just lack of proper maintenance. If an event is rare, it doesn’t mean it’s a black swan. Reliability engineering is a well developed science. But black swans are something else. Check this out. http://bit.ly/dzGTzJ (Nassim Taleb on the fourth quadrant)