Gauging the Impact of Automation on Everyday Life

The Automated Guided Vehicles: AGV Robots dressed in nurse costumes carrying medical documents works next to Thai patients at Mongkutwattana General Hospital in Bangkok, Jan. 9, 2018. The Thai hospital use three of Automated Guided Vehicles Robots to work as document courier inside the hospital aimed to save the hiring costs and solve its shortage workers as well as develop the fastest and smooth services.
Photo:
European Pressphoto Agency

The adoption of automation and artificial intelligence technologies has prompted increased discussion on their impact on society, particularly as they relate to jobs.

The revised tax code is leading more U.S. manufacturers to install robots to boost productivity in a tight labor market, as The Wall Street Journal reported Friday. Meanwhile at the World Economic Forum this week, Sundar Pichai, chief executive of Alphabet Inc.’s Google, suggested “ethical charters” and “global multilateral frameworks” as potential responses to dangers posed by artificial intelligence. “As humanity, the way we solve things is by getting concerned about them,” he said.

In light of the news, I'd like to review a Pew Research Center report that asked Americans to think about advanced technologies like artificial intelligence and robotics, and the impact they expect them to have on their everyday lives.

“Americans anticipate significant impacts from various automation technologies in the course of their lifetime,” noted the October report, Automation in Everyday Life. “Although they expect certain positive outcomes from these developments, their attitudes more frequently reflect worry and concern over the implications of these technologies for society as a whole.”

Let me discuss some of the report’s key findings.

Americans express concern, but also tempered optimism, about emerging automation technologies. Americans were particularly concerned about a future where robots and computers can do many human jobs, with 72% expressing worry while 33% were enthusiastic. If forced to compete with machines for jobs, 76% fear that economic inequality will become much worse, 75% believe that the economy will not create enough better paying jobs, and 64% expect that people will have a hard time finding meaningful things to do with their lives.

They were also three times as likely to be worried (67%) than enthusiastic (22%) if hiring decisions are made by AI algorithms without any human involvement. On the other hand, respondents held more balanced views toward robot caregivers and toward driverless vehicles.

The majority of Americans are reluctant to incorporate these types of technologies into their own lives. Despite acknowledging their potential benefits, almost 59% of respondents would not want a robot caregiver to take care of them or a family member. Seventy percent agree that robot caregivers would help alleviate the burden of caring for aging relatives, but 64% worry that these technologies would increase feelings of isolation for older adults.

Fifty-six percent would be reluctant to ride in a driverless vehicle, yet 75% agree that driverless vehicles would help the elderly and disabled live more independent lives, while 39% expect that they would reduce the number of people killed or injured in traffic accidents.

As MIT professor Sandy Pentland recently wrote, “AI systems are often not used because they are built as black boxes and do not provide transparency into what assumptions and decisions the underlying algorithms are making on the user's behalf. For humans to effectively team with automation, displays are needed that can explain and visualize what decision criteria the system uses.”

There’s broad public support for policies that limit the scope of automation technologies and bring humans more fully into the process. The vast majority of respondents would support policies that limit these advanced technologies to specific situation, while bringing humans more fully into their operations. For example, 85% of favor limiting fully autonomous machines to those jobs that are dangerous or unhealthy for humans.

In addition, if computers and robots were capable of doing many more human jobs, 60% would be in favor of a guaranteed income, while 58% would support a national service program that would employ people to perform specific jobs. Fifty-eight percent of respondents also believe that there should be some limits on the number of jobs companies can replace with machines.

Americans are strongly in favor of having humans more involved with these technologies. 87% would favor requiring that all driverless vehicles have a human in the driver’s seat ready to take control as needed. Forty-eight percent would feel better about a robot caregiver if a human operator could remotely monitor its actions. And, while 76% would not apply for a job that used a computer program to evaluate and select applicants, 57% would support the concept if the algorithms are only used for the initial screening of candidates, with the final selection made in a traditional in-person interview.

Many Americans expect a number of professions to be dominated by machines within their lifetimes, but relatively few expect their own jobs to be impacted.

Most Americans believe that the very nature of work and jobs will be significantly transformed over the next several decades. Seventy-seven percent say that robots and computers will one day automate many of the jobs currently done by humans. However, only 30% expect that their own jobs will be automated during their lifetimes.

Workers lacking a college education are much less likely to express positive attitudes towards the current generation of workforce technologies

“For some – especially those with high levels of educational attainment – technology represents a largely positive force that makes their work more interesting and provides opportunities for career advancement,” notes the 2017 Pew Research survey. “But those who have not attended college are much less likely to view today’s workforce technologies in such a positive light.”

53% of college graduates and 51% of those with some college felt that technology increased their opportunities for advancement, while only 32% of those with high school diplomas or less felt the same way. And, while 64% of college graduates and 54% of those with some college felt that technology makes their jobs more interesting, only 38% of those with high school or less agreed.

The public anticipates widespread advances in the development and adoption of automation technologies over the coming decades. Finally, Americans anticipate that these various advanced technologies will make significant inroads in the coming decades.

“Two-thirds of the public anticipates that most vehicles on the road will be driverless within the next half-century – with 9% predicting that this will occur in the next 10 years… Additionally, substantial shares of Americans think it’s likely that within 20 years doctors will rely on computer programs to diagnose and treat most diseases (79% think this will definitely or probably happen); that most retail interactions will be fully automated and involve little or no human interaction between customers and employees (65%); and that most deliveries in cities will be made by robots or drones instead of humans (65%).”

Stay tuned.

Irving Wladawsky-Berger worked at IBM for 37 years and has been a strategic advisor to Citigroup and to HBO. He is affiliated with MIT, NYU and Imperial College, and is a regular contributor to CIO Journal.