Thursday, August 24, 2006

Fredericton update

I spent much of the day in Fredericton (southside) and saw some interesting things. Brad Green had a bunch of signs up in Fton-Silverwood and Greg Byrne a bunch in Fton-Lincoln - no surprises. BUT I was surprised that the only private property signs were NDP.

Dennis Atchison had one sign I saw and Allison Brewer had lots on private property. Maybe I and others are underestimating her?

Also Brad Green has a radio ad running. Despite the hype of leadership coming from the Tory campaign, Green's ad didn't mention Bernard Lord and not even the PC Party. Weird.

14 comments:

Fred-Lincoln will be interesting. The NDP always pull a large portion of the vote ensuring no one candidate runs away with it and Brewer will probably build on that share. What is interesting though is that William Forrestall, the PC candidate is a well-known artist who, while pulling the traditional PC vote, has a opportunity to gain some votes from those who normally go left. You have to give Byrne the early favorite-to-win position because of the name recognition but it will be a fun one to watch.

Another interesting Fredericton riding to watch will be "my" riding of Fredericton-Nashwaaksis. Liberal TJ Burke is one of the young stars of the Liberal Party but the redefined riding shift westward to Douglas could alter the picture. And the Conservatives are offering an excellent candidate in Mike Smith. As a resident of the riding it is great to be able to choose between two solid candidates.

Greg Davis, the Tory candidate for Campbellton-Restigouche Centre, carries a loonie wrapped in tape in his pocket everywhere he goes.

While he was riding on the Tory campaign bus near Atholville with Premier Bernard Lord on Thursday, Davis explained that he found the coin after the campaign kick-off rally in Fredericton last Friday.------

Reg is right on Fred-Lincoln, it will be an interesting one. Forrestall had his signs up first but only the ones at the Waterloo Row. Greg Byrne has the name recognition and also a very visible HQ on Lincoln for all the bureaucrats to pass on their way home.

Atlantic Canadians, being the nice folk that we are, often vote for a party leader for no other reason than the fact that they are a leader and we think they should have a seat. I don't know if this will work in Fred-Lincoln for Allison. Her views on abortion and gay rights may be too much for conservative Frederictonians.

Letter in yesterday's Gleaner on the topic stated on Greg Byrne "I wonder what he brings to the table that is new and different after already spending the McKenna years in power. What altruistic reasons require him to not bow out of the public eye like his more humble leader, Premier mcKenna?"

on Brewer: "Allsion Brewer is also a difficult candidate to support. How does one vote for a leader who hypocritically said this week that she wishes to bring'leadership, accountability and balance' to the legislature, all while being hoisted off the Legislature grounds for violating the canctity of the people's forum? How does one vote for an individual unable to respoect the neutrality of the NB Legislature by holding an election vote canvassing press conference?"

In the writer's view this left Forrestall. "From an intellectual point of view, this leaves William Forrestall as the only candidate on the scene and has something to offer."

Not sure if the rest of the riding will agree with this particular writer's simplistic view of the candidates.

Wondering why Green did not talk about Lord or the Conservative Party on the radio?.. I found that so interesting. I found that first of all, in a campaign, you should vote for the candidate itself and not for the party he's representing...

Sara G, that letter writer in Gleaner is known CONservative. His father donates lot of money for CONservatice causes. So he wants to make sure that it is a good investment, like any other business person.

Tidbits from media.It looks Bernard Lord has been sitting on his...for last 7 years. He has been given an appropriate gift by one of his candidates-workboots May be workboots will be an incentive and Mr. Dither may get off of his ...______________In Gleaner....Present for Lord

Progressive Conservative leader Bernard Lord received a present in Saint-Quentin on Thursday.

Percy Mockler, incumbent for the riding for Restigouche- La-Vallee, gave his boss a pair of workboots at a rally at his headquarters

Fredericton-Nashwaaksis will stay Liberal! The riding distribution helps T.J. Burke rather than hurting him. He had 46% of popular vote in 2003 and now picks up Estey's Bride, Keswick and Douglas which voted 75% liberal in 2003 when Ray Dillion lost to Kirk MacDonald by 101 votes. I agree Mike Smith is a great candidate. He was a popular city councilor but that was 10 years ago and the riding has grown dramatically since then. Burke also won by large majority in 2003, look for a Liberal win here....he is too strong to be knocked off at this point in his political career.

Mike Smith from the Fredericton-Nashwaaksis riding actually finished his council term in 2001- which was 5 years ago, not 10 and he has remained very active in the community since then. I think he is the best candidate for our riding!

Rightfully so, Fredericton Nashwaaksis will stay Liberal in 2006. T.J. Burke is viewed as a young rising star within the Liberal Party and considered as a shoe-in for Cabinet, something the Northside of Fredericton hasn't had since the early 80's. Mike Smith remains to be a popular guy among PC party members but remains unattractive to general electorate. Burke, on the other hand, resonates well with young families in urban Fredericton and outside his riding. Unfortunately, people in Fredericton see that a vote for their Conservative candidate is a vote for Moncton since Lord has given the bank away to the province's hub city. I repeat a solid Liberal hold if you look at Burke's numbers in 2003 in current riding and redistributed riding where Ray Dillion left off.

Brewer's riding may do well by voting her in. If it's going to be a slim minority gov't (either way) the party in power is going to need to have her vote. So there will be lots of sucking up and lots of goodies for her riding, if she is elected.

That's a pretty unfair comment on Brewer's campaign launch at the legislature. It was an honest mistake-no politician is going to know the thousands of legislative laws when they've almost never had a party member their. And "sanctity"? Get real.

As for NDP signs, thats virtually always the case, in fact its better than polls-you can usually count the number of NDP signs to see how many votes they are going to get, its not indicative of much else.

The other parties are company parties and everybody knows it, and canadians don't like confrontation and like to get along with their neighbours-the NDP supporters are usually the only ones who are supportive enough to put out a sign. But a few die-hards doesn't a majority make.