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For more than six years, Syrians have made great sacrifices to defend their country in the face of a terrorist war of unprecedented brutality…. The Syrian people have stood their ground, against all odds, because they knew that this was a war that sought to eliminate their country, and with it, their own existence. They are an example to follow by any people who might face, now or in the future, similar attempts to break their will and deny them their freedom and sovereignty.

Washington has delayed its project to throw up an iron curtain along the eastern banks of the Euphrates River in order to deploy its Kurdish shock troops deep into Deir Ezzor province. The Syrian Defense Forces or SDF have been blitzing southward for nearly a week to head off the steady advance of the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and their elite Tiger Forces. The SAA’s stunning triumph in Deir Ezzor has knocked Washington for a loop triggering all manner of erratic behavior including rocket and mortar attacks on SAA troop positions, a US-coordinated stealth attack in Idlib province, and numerous other provocations meant to divert attention from the main strategic objective, the lucrative Euphrates Valley oil fields.

At present, the SDF is in the best position to liberate the oil fields from ISIS’s control. One must ask, however, why the SDF has suddenly diverted its attention from the siege of Raqqa and hastily send its troops south to the oil fields if their intention was not to claim ownership of those fields and to prevent the regime’s forces from retaking them? That, in fact, is the only logical explanation for their behavior.

Clearly, the SDF is not acting on its own behalf, but merely following Washington’s orders putting itself at great risk (of direct aerial bombardment by the Russian Airforce) simply to placate Washington’s insatiable lust for oil. Here’s more from South Front:

“Tensions are rapidly growing between the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Syrian government forces in the province of Deir Ezzor, north of the provincial capital.

Last week, the SDF used the intense fighting between the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and ISIS and seized Isba and Tabiyeh oil and gas fields located north of Khusham village on the east bank of the Euphrates.” (South Front)

The actions of the SDF confirm that the US-backed militia can no longer be seen as a Syrian ally assisting in the fight against ISIS. The SDF is yet another hostile, insurgent group that is implementing Washington’s imperial agenda. The only question is whether the Syrian Army and their allies will deal with the group as harshly as they have with ISIS. But, of course, the SAA has no choice in the matter since the SDF is trying to seize vital resources that are crucial to the Syria’s survival. In short, US-backed proxies and Russian-backed coalition members are going to clash militarily because Washington has eliminated any other option. Here’s more from South Front:

“On Monday, the (mainly Kurdish) SDF media wing directly accused the Russian Aerospace Forces of bombing its positions near the Conico gas factroy….The SDF Command released a statement accusing Russia of supporting ISIS against the SDF:

“The Russian and regime forces launched an attack on our fighters in Conico Factory… with cannons and warplanes. The bombardment resulted in martyring and wounding a number of the fighters. It is worth noting that we are advancing in coordination with the Global Coalition Forces…

We strongly condemn the Russian aggressive attacks and their allies that serve terrorism, and we assure that we would not stand idly by, and we would use our right in the lawful defense.” (South Front)

The so called “Global Coalition Forces” is a Washington invention that was never invited to fight in Syria and which violates Syria’s sovereignty. Also, the claim that the SDF will ‘lawfully defend’ itself against the forces of the sovereign government is not worthy of a comment. The SDF has no legal right to conduct military operations on Syrian territory.

Also, by its own admission, the SDF is trying to seize the Conico Gas Factory. And, on Monday, they continued their surge southward capturing Ibsah and Taibah oil fields and pushing further towards Jafra fields.

Does Washington think that Assad and Putin are too blind to see what’s going on?

Of course, not. Washington is focused on oil, and its proxies are doing its handiwork. It’s as plain as the nose on your face. But, there’s one glitch: If Washington wants Syria’s oil, it’s going to have to fight for it.

On Sunday, The Russian Ministry of Defense released aerial images showing that US Army special forces are either collaborating or have reached some kind of accommodation with ISIS units in the Deir Ezzor area. It’s an interesting story, but it is hard to draw any clear conclusions based on the photos. What is undeniable, however, is that the US-backed forces seem much more focused on oil than they are on ISIS. Not surprisingly, ISIS has taken full advantage of the situation by launching a lethal decapitation attack on the Russian high-command. This is from Moon of Alabama:

“Last night a Russian three-star general and two colonels were killed in a mortar attack while they visited a Syrian army headquarter in Deir Ezzor:

Lieutenant-General Valery Asapov, of the Russian armed forces, has been killed after coming under shelling from Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS/ISIL) militants near Deir ez-Zor, the Russian Defense Ministry has announced. In its statement, the ministry said that Asapov was at a command outpost manned by Syrian troops, assisting commanders in the liberation of the city of Deir ez-Zor.
…

Lieutenant-General Valery Asapov is the highest-ranking Russian officer to be killed in the Syrian campaign. He was a commander of the 5th Army in Russia’s Eastern Military District.”

ORDER IT NOW

For three years ISIS had besieged Syrian troops in Deir Ezzor city and its airport. It had not once managed to successfully attack the Syrian headquarter or to kill high ranking officers. Now, as U.S. proxy forces “advised” by U.S. special forces, have taken position north of Deir Ezzor, “ISIS” suddenly has the intelligence data and precision mortar capabilities to kill a bunch of visiting Russian officers?

That is not plausible. No one in Damascus, Baghdad, Tehran or Moscow will believe that…” (“Syria – U.S. CentCom Declares War On Russia”, Moon of Alabama)

Moscow has already drawn its own conclusions about Washington’s role in the General’s death. There will be retaliation, that much is certain. More important, the mask of US involvement has been stripped away leaving the two adversaries standing face to face. Lines of communication remain open, but they’re useless when both parties are determined to capture the same scrap of land. Disputes like this, are typically settled on the battlefield which is where this one is headed.

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Good piece, Mike, but there are certain strategic nuances which should be considered very strongly. Let’s put it this way, Russia has capability to literally stop any activity in Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Or, in the words of Paul Atreidis: “One who can destroy the thing, controls the thing”.

Unraveling the riddle of the Kurds’ Iraqi pipedream
"Erdogan will get what he wants; the oil, and no independence. Barzani’s hand is not exactly brilliant"
Masoud Barzani has overplayed his hand – no regional powers are going to assent to partition of Iraq. Expect major turbulence ahead avers, Asia Times Roving Eye correspondent Pepe Escobar.

Clearly, the SDF is not acting on its own behalf, but merely following Washington’s orders putting itself at great risk (of direct aerial bombardment by the Russian Airforce) simply to placate Washington’s insatiable lust for oil.

In 2009 and 2010, directly before the war, all of Syria produced about 400,000 barrels of oil per day(bpd). It had been as high as 600,000 bpd in the late 1990s, however Syrian production has peaked as is way down the slope of being finished.

Both Russia and Sandi Arabia each export on the order of 8.5 million barrels per day. Iran, Iraq, and the rest of the Sunni Gulf States export at least another 10 million barrels a day combined.

Those oil fields may be important to ISIS, The Kurds, and Assad, but Washington doesn’t care.

The Russians care, of course, because that is the only way Assad can pay for all the weapons and ammunition. Right now Syria is a hole that Putin is throwing money into, however good his intentions might be.

The pipeline routes are equally if not more important than the oil fields, not to mention that a fragmented Syria is no longer the buffer that prevents Israel from raising the alarm about and taking action against Iran. Nino should be rooting for Assad, because in Syria he has a non-lethal entity he can bomb at will to stir public opinion up for him.

The pipeline routes are equally if not more important than the oil fields, not to mention that a fragmented Syria is no longer the buffer that prevents Israel from raising the alarm about and taking action against Iran.

Bingo!

Note the date on this.

Certainly, the neoconservatives never bothered to sell the rest of the country on the real reasons for occupation of Iraq—more bases from which to flex U.S. muscle with Syria and Iran, better positioning for the inevitable fall of the regional sheikdoms, maintaining OPEC on a dollar track, and fulfilling a half-baked imperial vision.

-KAREN KWIATKOWSKI, Open Door Policy, The American Conservative, January 19, 2004http://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/open-door-policy

I’m a little disappointed in the Kurds. They gained a lot during the Syrian conflict, while going under the radar for most of the crimes they’ve committed. Now they stand to lose it all, and most of them will lose their lives.

There’s enough historical examples of what happens to US proxy forces when the tide of the conflict turns, for the Kurds to have known when to stop. Yet, they went ahead with a referendum and allowed themselves to be pitted against the Syrian army directly. This puts them at odds with Turkey, Iraq, Iran, and Syria, ensuring that they’re isolated and fighting a war on all fronts. This is how peoples end up extinct.

When the reality of the situation finally dawns on the psychopaths in Washington, Langley and the Pentagon, the Kurds will find their US-backers suddenly gone. Then the genocide will begin. The leadership of the Kurds that made these calls will eject to the US, and it will be the average Kurdish peoples that suffer.

Good piece, Mike, but there are certain strategic nuances which should be considered very strongly. Let's put it this way, Russia has capability to literally stop any activity in Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Or, in the words of Paul Atreidis: "One who can destroy the thing, controls the thing".

Russia has capability to literally stop any activity in Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman

Let’s look on the bright side. The Syrian-allied forces are in control on the west side of the Euphrates, a large military obstacle, clearing the large city Deir Ezzor and moving south toward the Iraq border taking more cities, which are all on the west bank. When in control of the population centers, and as The Alarmist says above the pipelines, it can turn its attention to the oilfields which will then be encircled. Then they can finish off the Kurds and Arab tribes which the US has recruited who are camping out in the oilfields depending upon air resupply. The Kurds are a long way from Kurdistan, and by then they will get homesick when they understand how they are being used by the US, again. Also Russia will out-think US, every time.

The Zionist neocons who run U.S. foreign policy aka wars , have been used to bombing and invading and destroying countries that were no match for the U.S. forces, and now with Russia being INVITED into Syria the Zionist neocons have a force to reckon with that is not only their match but their moral and military superior.

The Zionist neocons crossed the Rubicon when they went into Syria and now the hand writing is on the wall, and ISIS aka AL CIADA aka SDF that the U.S. and ISRAEL and BRITAIN created , is being destroyed , karma is a bitch.

As always, what this shows is that Putin is hopelessly bogged down in Syria and the US can lower the boom on him at any time, as it now seems to be doing. Equally, Putin seems to be scared silly of a direct confrontation with the US or NATO. He, or his underlings, snarl, growl and threaten but then they knuckle under. Also, a Lt-Gen. in the Russian army is a two-star general (Wikipedia). The presence of a general that rank in Syria suggests mission creep.

Putin effectively threw neocohenite syrian plan out the window, reversing what seemed inevitable in a year and a half, and he keeps on moving forward. If that is being "bogged down", I wonder how you qualify US military interventions anywhere since WW2.

And by 'bogged down' you mean that Assad and Russia control the situation on the ground?

Anytime you control terrain it can also be described as being 'bogged down' on that very same terrain. But the alternative for them was much worse. Look at it realistically: apart from being an irritant or controlling some minor territory (maybe with minor oil), the anti-Assad forces have been defeated and marginalised. They are left with a small province in Idlib, some eastern deserts, and a northern Kurdish quasi-state Rojava. And the 2-3 anti-Assad forces are hopelessly divided. Turks will check any Kurdish advances, and Kurds will check Al-Queda/Nusra. Damascus government controls everything else.

What happens now? Is it reasonable to expect that the anti-Assad forces can regroup and relaunch a bigger civil war? Or that Kurds can actually separate and join with Iraqi-Turkish Kurdish areas? Or that out-of-the-blue NATO would attack and wipe out the Russian bases?

I don't think so. So the 'bogged down' is meaningless. It is a stalemate on mostly Assad's terms. He won, and through him also Russia, Iran, Baghdad government, and Hezbollah. Where is the last year's talk of a 'no-fly zone' by Hillary? This is how losing looks.

Good piece, Mike, but there are certain strategic nuances which should be considered very strongly. Let's put it this way, Russia has capability to literally stop any activity in Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Or, in the words of Paul Atreidis: "One who can destroy the thing, controls the thing".

As always, what this shows is that Putin is hopelessly bogged down in Syria and the US can lower the boom on him at any time, as it now seems to be doing. Equally, Putin seems to be scared silly of a direct confrontation with the US or NATO. He, or his underlings, snarl, growl and threaten but then they knuckle under. Also, a Lt-Gen. in the Russian army is a two-star general (Wikipedia). The presence of a general that rank in Syria suggests mission creep.

Putin effectively threw neocohenite syrian plan out the window, reversing what seemed inevitable in a year and a half, and he keeps on moving forward. If that is being “bogged down”, I wonder how you qualify US military interventions anywhere since WW2.

As always, what this shows is that Putin is hopelessly bogged down in Syria and the US can lower the boom on him at any time, as it now seems to be doing. Equally, Putin seems to be scared silly of a direct confrontation with the US or NATO. He, or his underlings, snarl, growl and threaten but then they knuckle under. Also, a Lt-Gen. in the Russian army is a two-star general (Wikipedia). The presence of a general that rank in Syria suggests mission creep.

And by ‘bogged down’ you mean that Assad and Russia control the situation on the ground?

Anytime you control terrain it can also be described as being ‘bogged down’ on that very same terrain. But the alternative for them was much worse. Look at it realistically: apart from being an irritant or controlling some minor territory (maybe with minor oil), the anti-Assad forces have been defeated and marginalised. They are left with a small province in Idlib, some eastern deserts, and a northern Kurdish quasi-state Rojava. And the 2-3 anti-Assad forces are hopelessly divided. Turks will check any Kurdish advances, and Kurds will check Al-Queda/Nusra. Damascus government controls everything else.

What happens now? Is it reasonable to expect that the anti-Assad forces can regroup and relaunch a bigger civil war? Or that Kurds can actually separate and join with Iraqi-Turkish Kurdish areas? Or that out-of-the-blue NATO would attack and wipe out the Russian bases?

I don’t think so. So the ‘bogged down’ is meaningless. It is a stalemate on mostly Assad’s terms. He won, and through him also Russia, Iran, Baghdad government, and Hezbollah. Where is the last year’s talk of a ‘no-fly zone’ by Hillary? This is how losing looks.

There's been no worse propaganda than Syria. She's been a great source to follow and the facebook ban is clearly them working on behalf of the war criminals behind the overthrowing/partition of Syria.

We did not enlist the Kurds against Syria to begin with because we didn't think we could contain Kurdish aspirations to a Kurdistan spanning parts of Syria, Iran, Iraq, and Turkey. It was thought too dangerous for its risk of a larger regional war involving a NATO ally against us.

Blowback from ISIS proved too costly in Iraq and beyond. They were just supposed to help overthrow Syria's government then disappear. Instead they took our own proxy, Iraq, away from us in large swathes.

So away we go now, with the Kurds overtaking Arab regions of Syria. It's going to work out swell, about as well as an invasion from Canada taking Vermont, New Hampshire, or Maine.

As always, what this shows is that Putin is hopelessly bogged down in Syria and the US can lower the boom on him at any time, as it now seems to be doing. Equally, Putin seems to be scared silly of a direct confrontation with the US or NATO. He, or his underlings, snarl, growl and threaten but then they knuckle under. Also, a Lt-Gen. in the Russian army is a two-star general (Wikipedia). The presence of a general that rank in Syria suggests mission creep.

Dear Michael, why do you insist on emitting weird telegrams from Radio Muh Oceania from An Alternate Universe? Clearly you are not just trolling.

Maybe it’s a Hörspiel that has been running for a few years now, some kind of performance art?

Good piece, Mike, but there are certain strategic nuances which should be considered very strongly. Let's put it this way, Russia has capability to literally stop any activity in Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Or, in the words of Paul Atreidis: "One who can destroy the thing, controls the thing".

Hello Professor.

Russia has capability to literally stop any activity in Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.

Would you be so kind as to explain exactly HOW would Russia do that?
Please.

You seemed to read Andrei latest article. Hence, it is either reading comprehension or you are being ironic regarding those capabilities. I hope those who make decisions take those capabilities seriously. It is not the first time "partners" underestimate or ignore Russian capabilities. It does not end well.

“US-backed forces seem much more focused on oil than they are on ISIS.”

Oil is overrated as an explanation for current world events. To my eye the American interest is cutting the ‘Shia Crescent’ in two. Controlling the Euphrates and Al Tanf would cut the ability of Iran to send supplies to Lebanon.

Maybe the Kurds are interested in the oil? Probably a very bad idea for Kurds to start claiming areas not traditionally Kurdish, even before Kurdistan exists.

Indeed, the 'oil' issue is a way to distract from the fact that this is really about "that shitty little country", aka: 'Israel', and how they are using the US military & US treasury to attempt the work that they are afraid to try.

Putin effectively threw neocohenite syrian plan out the window, reversing what seemed inevitable in a year and a half, and he keeps on moving forward. If that is being "bogged down", I wonder how you qualify US military interventions anywhere since WW2.

1. a few thousand foreign-fighters recruited by ISIS, the Kurds, and the various other rebel factions

2.Russian and American (and its NATO partners) airstrikes

3. a small number of Turkish and Israeli strikes

4. a small number of Hezbollah and Iranian contingents brought in by Assad

5.I am probably missing something

The Russians are there “legally” at the request of the legitimate Syrian government. The United States is not operating in any capacity (either in the air or in a small advisory and with, reportedly, artillery ground presence) “legally” in Syria. International law rarely acts as much of a roadblock to anything either of these two countries does. Legality is usually used as a tool or weapon on the public relations front to hammer the other side. For the most part the United States and Russia have and continue to do what they want – only really kept in check or constricted by the reactions of the other.

Talk of terrorists (“good” or “bad”) is inappropriate and unhelpful. It is a civil war. The opening quote from Walid Al-Moualem only speaks for half the country. The other how aren’t “terrorists” any more than all Chechens are terrorists (but I get ahead of myself). How absurd.

The distinctions between the two (or more) sides in this conflict have never been clear and changes occur regularly in the relative importance of various alignments and in the alignments themselves. Whose side is Turkey on? They used to be for Assad’s removal and shot down a Russian fighter (supposedly “coordinated by US”) now they are semi-allied with Russia, which makes them for Assad? Who knows.

One could write 1000 words just on what those alignments look the most like today. I’m not going to do it. If you don’t have a picture then stop and think about this point for 15 minutes.

Again, the United States and Russia are not at war.

Russia has saved the United States from getting more involved against Assad at least twice over unproved chemical attacks. Eighteen months-or-so ago it actually looked like The US and Russia were cooperating. Then came the anti-Trump backlash/”resistance” on top of the anti-Russian sentiment long-ingrained in a significant part of the collective American psyche. This has all been discussed at length on The UNZ Review.

What doesn’t get discussed much, if at all, is how one might feel about the Russians or Americans if one were say an average Syrian living is say Idlib province or in Kurd territory.

It would appear ISIS won’t be much of an issue a year from now. Who knows.

How many non-combatants have been killed by American airstrikes? Russian airstrikes?

Much talk here of superior Russian technology and special forces capability. Long-range, “stand-off” cruise missiles. S400 SAM batteries. Not much about should-fired anti-aircraft units not sold to anybody by Americans. Not yet, at least.

The best example and starting point for learning about Russian military doctrine, experience, and competency using “stand-off” firepower is the Second Chechen War. Specifically the assault on Grozny 1999-2000.

This particular example is relevant for several reasons, not least of which is the leadership of Vladimir Putin – in fact, it was this “crisis” (some believe to be fake) of Chechen terrorism that launched and then solidified grip on power.

In 1999 and 2000, Putin and the Russian military “stood-off” and completely obliterated Grozny using basically every non-nuclear means available.

If you lived in non-government-controlled territory in Syria right now, would you be happy about Russian involvement in Syria right now or would you be kind of glad the United States had a small presence there as a check and counterbalance to any Russian tendencies to Chechen war-type excesses?

The Russian accusations of “US-coordinated” attacks on Russian troops and the mortar-killing of General Asapov are most likely part of a well-coordinated Russian propaganda disinformation campaign. Keeps Americans off-balance. Provocations. Both sides are probing each other in a healthy way while their leaders and general staffs communicate and meet. It is all theater.

Neither side has any intention or plans to attack the other because there is no reason to do so just as there is no reason to consider each other enemies. But their are hotheads and hysterics on both sides.

I have always been completely opposed to American involvement in Syria. The Neocon-heavy “Deep State” strategy or policy or whatever you want to call it is dumb, unnecessary and very, very expensive.

But as far as I can see from reading The UNZ Review and RT News is that the only thing going well for Russia and Putin in this world are a two-year spetnaz foray into Syria and 5,000-km range cruise missiles. Go Team Stalin!

re: " the only thing going well for Russia and Putin in this world are a two-year spetnaz foray into Syria and 5,000-km range cruise missiles."

Besides the major Russian victory in Syria causing a complete stoppage of the US/Israel regime-change goal, the other situations going well for Russia include:>foiling the US attempt to gain control of Russia's only warm-water port in Crimea>aiding ethnic Russians in northeast Ukraine when they were faced with annihilation by the neo-Nazi Kiev coup crowd fostered by the US>a new and growing alliance with Turkey, the major European NATO member, including sale of the S-400 anti-air system, and the initiation of the Gazprom-built TurkStream gas pipeline.>a new and growing alliance with Iran, one result of the Russia-Turkey-Iran talks in Astana which have greatly improved the situation in Syria, a major defeat for the US who has been cut out of the talks.>the successful fight against ISIS, which was going nowhere until Russia sent ts forces into Syria and showed the US how to bomb oil shipments etc.>a strong new alliance with China, thus reversing the Nixonian attempt to separate the two, tolling the death-knell for continued US world hegemony, and promising a multipolar world not led by the faltering US

In 1999 and 2000, Putin and the Russian military “stood-off” and completely obliterated Grozny using basically every non-nuclear means available.

True. But, in meantime Russia probably increased its capability in that area. Probably.

But, should you talk about SAA that's EXACTLY how they do it now in Syria. And, IMHO, that's the main problem they face (Russia/Assad coalition).

The Russian accusations of “US-coordinated” attacks on Russian troops and the mortar-killing of General Asapov are most likely part of a well-coordinated Russian propaganda disinformation campaign.

Disagree. The man (and some of his team) simply got themselves killed in ongoing battle. That happens all the time. Spins, from both/all sides after that are just that......spins....

Both sides are probing each other in a healthy way while their leaders and general staffs communicate and meet. It is all theater.

Well......parties engaged in modern war always communicate. That has nothing to do with a potential for serious escalation. War, by its very nature, has its own logic.

You can see that mode of thinking here, for crying out loud.

The Professor (Andrei) is the product of Russian mode of thinking. And he is, in one of articles here, almost advocating exchange of high tech hits with US forces in the theater. Or here using that capability to block that OIL route. That's how those guys think..........

Do......no...........ever........overestimate.............single mindedness.........of..........military minds.......... When shit starts flying they simply "get into gear" they've been practicing all their lives. It's...ingrained reflex...almost.

Neither side has any intention or plans to attack the other because there is no reason to do so just as there is no reason to consider each other enemies.

You provoke one of top Generals in that theater in some way.......things can go side wise in instant.

Well, at least my opinion. Based on some experience with those characters.

"US-backed forces seem much more focused on oil than they are on ISIS."

Oil is overrated as an explanation for current world events. To my eye the American interest is cutting the 'Shia Crescent' in two. Controlling the Euphrates and Al Tanf would cut the ability of Iran to send supplies to Lebanon.

Maybe the Kurds are interested in the oil? Probably a very bad idea for Kurds to start claiming areas not traditionally Kurdish, even before Kurdistan exists.

Maybe the deep state convinced Trump it is all really about oil.

Indeed, the ‘oil’ issue is a way to distract from the fact that this is really about “that shitty little country”, aka: ‘Israel’, and how they are using the US military & US treasury to attempt the work that they are afraid to try.

In support of Wally's argument that this is all about that shitty little country, I will point out that Germany, slave to the holocaust, has moved its Nato forces from Incirlik in Turkey to Al-Asraq Jordan.

But Jordan isn't even in Nato, and its no where near the North Atlantic. Nato is no longer even trying to hide the fact that they have become little more than the Rothschild Army .

Russia has capability to literally stop any activity in Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.

Would you be so kind as to explain exactly HOW would Russia do that?
Please.

You seemed to read Andrei latest article. Hence, it is either reading comprehension or you are being ironic regarding those capabilities. I hope those who make decisions take those capabilities seriously. It is not the first time “partners” underestimate or ignore Russian capabilities. It does not end well.

You seemed to read Andrei latest article. Hence, it is either reading comprehension or you are being ironic regarding those capabilities. I hope those who make decisions take those capabilities seriously. It is not the first time "partners" underestimate or ignore Russian capabilities. It does not end well.

…it is either reading comprehension or you are being ironic regarding those capabilities.

It’s neither.

It’s about where would The Professor visualize The NUCLEAR option in that scenario.

Say, Russia does THIS. USA…sorry…The Evil Zionist Empire (TEZE from now on in this post..) does THAT. Then Russia does THIS. Then TEZE does that.

Where in that THIS/THAT TEZE goes nuclear? Or Russia for that matter.

Just …one….little….tactical….nuclear….weapon…… Say, not more than, say, 0.3 KT.

The Professor remembers, I am sure, how it was done ages ago in “war games”. So…in this very “war game”….when/where it would be?

Simple question. Probably the last people of the Earth would be asking if it ever comes to that.

This is exactly the problem. During the Cold War both sides were doing their best to avoid nuclear confrontation, against a background of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD).

However , it now seems that MAD logic is being superseded technologically with little public awareness of the fact.

Russia is ringed by US bases, requiring much faster Russian reaction times, also involving new weapons that are faster, more invisible and more accurate, plus there are EMP weapons - so does MAD still stand? - or in other words, what is the new probability calculation for a successful first strike?

In these circumstances the only option for peace is to close US bases, stop interfering in other countries and to actively work for trust and improved international relations.

The problem is, that the Zioglobs aren't hearing the message, but they are aware of the strategic implications of the new technology.

Simple question. Probably the last people of the Earth would be asking if it ever comes to that.

1. a few thousand foreign-fighters recruited by ISIS, the Kurds, and the various other rebel factions

2.Russian and American (and its NATO partners) airstrikes

3. a small number of Turkish and Israeli strikes

4. a small number of Hezbollah and Iranian contingents brought in by Assad

5.I am probably missing something

The Russians are there "legally" at the request of the legitimate Syrian government. The United States is not operating in any capacity (either in the air or in a small advisory and with, reportedly, artillery ground presence) "legally" in Syria. International law rarely acts as much of a roadblock to anything either of these two countries does. Legality is usually used as a tool or weapon on the public relations front to hammer the other side. For the most part the United States and Russia have and continue to do what they want - only really kept in check or constricted by the reactions of the other.

Talk of terrorists ("good" or "bad") is inappropriate and unhelpful. It is a civil war. The opening quote from Walid Al-Moualem only speaks for half the country. The other how aren't "terrorists" any more than all Chechens are terrorists (but I get ahead of myself). How absurd.

The distinctions between the two (or more) sides in this conflict have never been clear and changes occur regularly in the relative importance of various alignments and in the alignments themselves. Whose side is Turkey on? They used to be for Assad's removal and shot down a Russian fighter (supposedly "coordinated by US") now they are semi-allied with Russia, which makes them for Assad? Who knows.

One could write 1000 words just on what those alignments look the most like today. I'm not going to do it. If you don't have a picture then stop and think about this point for 15 minutes.

Again, the United States and Russia are not at war.

Russia has saved the United States from getting more involved against Assad at least twice over unproved chemical attacks. Eighteen months-or-so ago it actually looked like The US and Russia were cooperating. Then came the anti-Trump backlash/"resistance" on top of the anti-Russian sentiment long-ingrained in a significant part of the collective American psyche. This has all been discussed at length on The UNZ Review.

What doesn't get discussed much, if at all, is how one might feel about the Russians or Americans if one were say an average Syrian living is say Idlib province or in Kurd territory.

It would appear ISIS won't be much of an issue a year from now. Who knows.

How many non-combatants have been killed by American airstrikes? Russian airstrikes?

Much talk here of superior Russian technology and special forces capability. Long-range, "stand-off" cruise missiles. S400 SAM batteries. Not much about should-fired anti-aircraft units not sold to anybody by Americans. Not yet, at least.

The best example and starting point for learning about Russian military doctrine, experience, and competency using "stand-off" firepower is the Second Chechen War. Specifically the assault on Grozny 1999-2000.

This particular example is relevant for several reasons, not least of which is the leadership of Vladimir Putin - in fact, it was this "crisis" (some believe to be fake) of Chechen terrorism that launched and then solidified grip on power.

In 1999 and 2000, Putin and the Russian military "stood-off" and completely obliterated Grozny using basically every non-nuclear means available.

If you lived in non-government-controlled territory in Syria right now, would you be happy about Russian involvement in Syria right now or would you be kind of glad the United States had a small presence there as a check and counterbalance to any Russian tendencies to Chechen war-type excesses?

The Russian accusations of "US-coordinated" attacks on Russian troops and the mortar-killing of General Asapov are most likely part of a well-coordinated Russian propaganda disinformation campaign. Keeps Americans off-balance. Provocations. Both sides are probing each other in a healthy way while their leaders and general staffs communicate and meet. It is all theater.

Neither side has any intention or plans to attack the other because there is no reason to do so just as there is no reason to consider each other enemies. But their are hotheads and hysterics on both sides.

I have always been completely opposed to American involvement in Syria. The Neocon-heavy "Deep State" strategy or policy or whatever you want to call it is dumb, unnecessary and very, very expensive.

But as far as I can see from reading The UNZ Review and RT News is that the only thing going well for Russia and Putin in this world are a two-year spetnaz foray into Syria and 5,000-km range cruise missiles. Go Team Stalin!

re: ” the only thing going well for Russia and Putin in this world are a two-year spetnaz foray into Syria and 5,000-km range cruise missiles.”

Besides the major Russian victory in Syria causing a complete stoppage of the US/Israel regime-change goal, the other situations going well for Russia include:
>foiling the US attempt to gain control of Russia’s only warm-water port in Crimea
>aiding ethnic Russians in northeast Ukraine when they were faced with annihilation by the neo-Nazi Kiev coup crowd fostered by the US
>a new and growing alliance with Turkey, the major European NATO member, including sale of the S-400 anti-air system, and the initiation of the Gazprom-built TurkStream gas pipeline.
>a new and growing alliance with Iran, one result of the Russia-Turkey-Iran talks in Astana which have greatly improved the situation in Syria, a major defeat for the US who has been cut out of the talks.
>the successful fight against ISIS, which was going nowhere until Russia sent ts forces into Syria and showed the US how to bomb oil shipments etc.
>a strong new alliance with China, thus reversing the Nixonian attempt to separate the two, tolling the death-knell for continued US world hegemony, and promising a multipolar world not led by the faltering US

1. a few thousand foreign-fighters recruited by ISIS, the Kurds, and the various other rebel factions

2.Russian and American (and its NATO partners) airstrikes

3. a small number of Turkish and Israeli strikes

4. a small number of Hezbollah and Iranian contingents brought in by Assad

5.I am probably missing something

The Russians are there "legally" at the request of the legitimate Syrian government. The United States is not operating in any capacity (either in the air or in a small advisory and with, reportedly, artillery ground presence) "legally" in Syria. International law rarely acts as much of a roadblock to anything either of these two countries does. Legality is usually used as a tool or weapon on the public relations front to hammer the other side. For the most part the United States and Russia have and continue to do what they want - only really kept in check or constricted by the reactions of the other.

Talk of terrorists ("good" or "bad") is inappropriate and unhelpful. It is a civil war. The opening quote from Walid Al-Moualem only speaks for half the country. The other how aren't "terrorists" any more than all Chechens are terrorists (but I get ahead of myself). How absurd.

The distinctions between the two (or more) sides in this conflict have never been clear and changes occur regularly in the relative importance of various alignments and in the alignments themselves. Whose side is Turkey on? They used to be for Assad's removal and shot down a Russian fighter (supposedly "coordinated by US") now they are semi-allied with Russia, which makes them for Assad? Who knows.

One could write 1000 words just on what those alignments look the most like today. I'm not going to do it. If you don't have a picture then stop and think about this point for 15 minutes.

Again, the United States and Russia are not at war.

Russia has saved the United States from getting more involved against Assad at least twice over unproved chemical attacks. Eighteen months-or-so ago it actually looked like The US and Russia were cooperating. Then came the anti-Trump backlash/"resistance" on top of the anti-Russian sentiment long-ingrained in a significant part of the collective American psyche. This has all been discussed at length on The UNZ Review.

What doesn't get discussed much, if at all, is how one might feel about the Russians or Americans if one were say an average Syrian living is say Idlib province or in Kurd territory.

It would appear ISIS won't be much of an issue a year from now. Who knows.

How many non-combatants have been killed by American airstrikes? Russian airstrikes?

Much talk here of superior Russian technology and special forces capability. Long-range, "stand-off" cruise missiles. S400 SAM batteries. Not much about should-fired anti-aircraft units not sold to anybody by Americans. Not yet, at least.

The best example and starting point for learning about Russian military doctrine, experience, and competency using "stand-off" firepower is the Second Chechen War. Specifically the assault on Grozny 1999-2000.

This particular example is relevant for several reasons, not least of which is the leadership of Vladimir Putin - in fact, it was this "crisis" (some believe to be fake) of Chechen terrorism that launched and then solidified grip on power.

In 1999 and 2000, Putin and the Russian military "stood-off" and completely obliterated Grozny using basically every non-nuclear means available.

If you lived in non-government-controlled territory in Syria right now, would you be happy about Russian involvement in Syria right now or would you be kind of glad the United States had a small presence there as a check and counterbalance to any Russian tendencies to Chechen war-type excesses?

The Russian accusations of "US-coordinated" attacks on Russian troops and the mortar-killing of General Asapov are most likely part of a well-coordinated Russian propaganda disinformation campaign. Keeps Americans off-balance. Provocations. Both sides are probing each other in a healthy way while their leaders and general staffs communicate and meet. It is all theater.

Neither side has any intention or plans to attack the other because there is no reason to do so just as there is no reason to consider each other enemies. But their are hotheads and hysterics on both sides.

I have always been completely opposed to American involvement in Syria. The Neocon-heavy "Deep State" strategy or policy or whatever you want to call it is dumb, unnecessary and very, very expensive.

But as far as I can see from reading The UNZ Review and RT News is that the only thing going well for Russia and Putin in this world are a two-year spetnaz foray into Syria and 5,000-km range cruise missiles. Go Team Stalin!

In 1999 and 2000, Putin and the Russian military “stood-off” and completely obliterated Grozny using basically every non-nuclear means available.

True. But, in meantime Russia probably increased its capability in that area. Probably.

But, should you talk about SAA that’s EXACTLY how they do it now in Syria. And, IMHO, that’s the main problem they face (Russia/Assad coalition).

The Russian accusations of “US-coordinated” attacks on Russian troops and the mortar-killing of General Asapov are most likely part of a well-coordinated Russian propaganda disinformation campaign.

Disagree. The man (and some of his team) simply got themselves killed in ongoing battle. That happens all the time. Spins, from both/all sides after that are just that……spins….

Both sides are probing each other in a healthy way while their leaders and general staffs communicate and meet. It is all theater.

Well……parties engaged in modern war always communicate. That has nothing to do with a potential for serious escalation. War, by its very nature, has its own logic.

You can see that mode of thinking here, for crying out loud.

The Professor (Andrei) is the product of Russian mode of thinking. And he is, in one of articles here, almost advocating exchange of high tech hits with US forces in the theater. Or here using that capability to block that OIL route. That’s how those guys think……….

Do……no………..ever……..overestimate………….single mindedness………of……….military minds………. When shit starts flying they simply “get into gear” they’ve been practicing all their lives. It’s…ingrained reflex…almost.

Neither side has any intention or plans to attack the other because there is no reason to do so just as there is no reason to consider each other enemies.

You provoke one of top Generals in that theater in some way…….things can go side wise in instant.

Well, at least my opinion. Based on some experience with those characters.

The pipeline routes are equally if not more important than the oil fields, not to mention that a fragmented Syria is no longer the buffer that prevents Israel from raising the alarm about and taking action against Iran. Nino should be rooting for Assad, because in Syria he has a non-lethal entity he can bomb at will to stir public opinion up for him.

The pipeline routes are equally if not more important than the oil fields, not to mention that a fragmented Syria is no longer the buffer that prevents Israel from raising the alarm about and taking action against Iran.

Bingo!

Note the date on this.

Certainly, the neoconservatives never bothered to sell the rest of the country on the real reasons for occupation of Iraq—more bases from which to flex U.S. muscle with Syria and Iran, better positioning for the inevitable fall of the regional sheikdoms, maintaining OPEC on a dollar track, and fulfilling a half-baked imperial vision.

-KAREN KWIATKOWSKI, Open Door Policy, The American Conservative, January 19, 2004

There’s been no worse propaganda than Syria. She’s been a great source to follow and the facebook ban is clearly them working on behalf of the war criminals behind the overthrowing/partition of Syria.

We did not enlist the Kurds against Syria to begin with because we didn’t think we could contain Kurdish aspirations to a Kurdistan spanning parts of Syria, Iran, Iraq, and Turkey. It was thought too dangerous for its risk of a larger regional war involving a NATO ally against us.

Blowback from ISIS proved too costly in Iraq and beyond. They were just supposed to help overthrow Syria’s government then disappear. Instead they took our own proxy, Iraq, away from us in large swathes.

So away we go now, with the Kurds overtaking Arab regions of Syria. It’s going to work out swell, about as well as an invasion from Canada taking Vermont, New Hampshire, or Maine.

...it is either reading comprehension or you are being ironic regarding those capabilities.

It's neither.

It's about where would The Professor visualize The NUCLEAR option in that scenario.

Say, Russia does THIS. USA...sorry...The Evil Zionist Empire (TEZE from now on in this post..) does THAT. Then Russia does THIS. Then TEZE does that.

Where in that THIS/THAT TEZE goes nuclear? Or Russia for that matter.

Just ...one....little....tactical....nuclear....weapon...... Say, not more than, say, 0.3 KT.

The Professor remembers, I am sure, how it was done ages ago in "war games". So...in this very "war game"....when/where it would be?

Simple question. Probably the last people of the Earth would be asking if it ever comes to that.

This is exactly the problem. During the Cold War both sides were doing their best to avoid nuclear confrontation, against a background of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD).

However , it now seems that MAD logic is being superseded technologically with little public awareness of the fact.

Russia is ringed by US bases, requiring much faster Russian reaction times, also involving new weapons that are faster, more invisible and more accurate, plus there are EMP weapons – so does MAD still stand? – or in other words, what is the new probability calculation for a successful first strike?

In these circumstances the only option for peace is to close US bases, stop interfering in other countries and to actively work for trust and improved international relations.

The problem is, that the Zioglobs aren’t hearing the message, but they are aware of the strategic implications of the new technology.

Simple question. Probably the last people of the Earth would be asking if it ever comes to that.

what is the new probability calculation for a successful first strike?

Funny.
I've been several times on this site accused of "Cold War mentality'...and look at this.
First strike thing.

I am not laughing at you, no, just saying how all that name calling and such just depends on own perspective, isn't it?

Say, in this very instance I just don't think about first strike thing and the such.
Not at all.

It appears that Russia (and its fanboys) are obsessed with first strike and nuclear war.
That's not at all how US...I meant...how did you call it...Zioglobs....think.
I think they think.

What they appear to be doing is slowly....slowly.....squeezing Russia in.
Squeezing...cutting off.....pushing back...and back.....weakening it.
The purpose isn't to destroy Russia....hell no. It's simply to replace the regime in Moscow with a, say, more pliable one. Some which will play the ball as told.

That's why the confrontation with Russia isn't done by naked US military power.
It's done by proxy.
Proxy here...proxy there......slowly.....gently.....

The strategy, as repeated several times so far here, is to "weaken and replace".

Now, Putin (and his team) strategy is to "endure until Zioglob implodes".
It's in essence Kutuzov strategy against Napoleon. Trade territory for time.

It if comes to nuclear, it will be a mistake.
Not that current elites aren't perfectly capable of mistake. On the contrary.
And that is the problem here.

Good piece, Mike, but there are certain strategic nuances which should be considered very strongly. Let's put it this way, Russia has capability to literally stop any activity in Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Or, in the words of Paul Atreidis: "One who can destroy the thing, controls the thing".

Unraveling the riddle of the Kurds’ Iraqi pipedream
“Erdogan will get what he wants; the oil, and no independence. Barzani’s hand is not exactly brilliant”
Masoud Barzani has overplayed his hand – no regional powers are going to assent to partition of Iraq. Expect major turbulence ahead avers, Asia Times Roving Eye correspondent Pepe Escobar.

Indeed, the 'oil' issue is a way to distract from the fact that this is really about "that shitty little country", aka: 'Israel', and how they are using the US military & US treasury to attempt the work that they are afraid to try.

'Join the US army, Fight for Israel
http://68.media.tumblr.com/639563970a638b606f4adb0ef05c778b/tumblr_inline_o7t4eewwJn1r75mb5_500.jpg

In support of Wally’s argument that this is all about that shitty little country, I will point out that Germany, slave to the holocaust, has moved its Nato forces from Incirlik in Turkey to Al-Asraq Jordan.

But Jordan isn’t even in Nato, and its no where near the North Atlantic. Nato is no longer even trying to hide the fact that they have become little more than the Rothschild Army .

This is exactly the problem. During the Cold War both sides were doing their best to avoid nuclear confrontation, against a background of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD).

However , it now seems that MAD logic is being superseded technologically with little public awareness of the fact.

Russia is ringed by US bases, requiring much faster Russian reaction times, also involving new weapons that are faster, more invisible and more accurate, plus there are EMP weapons - so does MAD still stand? - or in other words, what is the new probability calculation for a successful first strike?

In these circumstances the only option for peace is to close US bases, stop interfering in other countries and to actively work for trust and improved international relations.

The problem is, that the Zioglobs aren't hearing the message, but they are aware of the strategic implications of the new technology.

Simple question. Probably the last people of the Earth would be asking if it ever comes to that.

That's the MAD equation which may no longer exist.

Hahaha………..

what is the new probability calculation for a successful first strike?

Funny.
I’ve been several times on this site accused of “Cold War mentality’…and look at this.
First strike thing.

I am not laughing at you, no, just saying how all that name calling and such just depends on own perspective, isn’t it?

Say, in this very instance I just don’t think about first strike thing and the such.
Not at all.

It appears that Russia (and its fanboys) are obsessed with first strike and nuclear war.
That’s not at all how US…I meant…how did you call it…Zioglobs….think.
I think they think.

What they appear to be doing is slowly….slowly…..squeezing Russia in.
Squeezing…cutting off…..pushing back…and back…..weakening it.
The purpose isn’t to destroy Russia….hell no. It’s simply to replace the regime in Moscow with a, say, more pliable one. Some which will play the ball as told.

That’s why the confrontation with Russia isn’t done by naked US military power.
It’s done by proxy.
Proxy here…proxy there……slowly…..gently…..

The strategy, as repeated several times so far here, is to “weaken and replace“.

Now, Putin (and his team) strategy is to “endure until Zioglob implodes”.
It’s in essence Kutuzov strategy against Napoleon. Trade territory for time.

It if comes to nuclear, it will be a mistake.
Not that current elites aren’t perfectly capable of mistake. On the contrary.
And that is the problem here.

“The question inevitably arises: where were these forces of good when Islamic State occupied a third of Iraq and most of Syria in mid-2015? The British minister boasts that the Royal Air Force carried out more than 1,500 airstrikes. In comparison, Russia has carried out over 99,000 confirmed precision strikes in Syria alone, which have guaranteed a breakthrough in the battle against ISIS,” continued Konashenkov.

Interesting. 99,000 in two years since 2015 comes out to…wait for it… 135 per day or 5.65 per hour average for the the entire two years.

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Though Whitney may be right and we're facing the final countdown, my gut reaction is the opposite. The statement of the US Centcom commanding general before the house that Assad has won is an indication, as is the Russian threat that a false flag is impending, which gives them more cover if they ...

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https://phys.org/news/2018-01-scale-china-space.html
http://www.spacedaily.com/dragonspace.html
NASA was...

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LoL. Aerospace pro is taking out on cute Panda China when we thrash bear.
So why not reply my question directly?
What the hell is that cheap general & his 30 men flyi...

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Anon from TN
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There are more than 350 comments, up to now. Why are you littering the Unz forum?

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"US policy in Syria is altogether a result of Zionist political power in the US and the Likud's obsession with Syria, Hizbullah and Iran" http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2018/03/syria-report-17-march-2018.html#comments
An important Question: Where are the American/European Jewi...

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