St Totteringham's day History

St Totteringham's Day is the day when Arsenal fans celebrate the fact
that Tottenham can no longer catch Arsenal in the League. It is a
movable feast, but usually falls in March, April or May. It is the day
to collect on bets made by over-optimistic Spurs fans in the close
season who think that "this is the year".

This page lists all the St Totteringham's days since the dawn of time.
Well since Spurs entered the league anyway.

Before World War 1

Between 1893/4 and 1907/8 Spurs were not in the league and Arsenal were.
In 1908/9 Spurs were in Division 2, and Arsenal in the top flight.
In 1909/10 Arsenal had a bad year and finished below Spurs. So St T's
really begins on 22nd April 1911, when Arsenal beat Blackburn 5-1.

Analysis

Last updated 28 April 2014

Overall

Arsenal have been above Spurs in the league on 64 Occasions. Spurs have
come above Arsenal 30 times. On the times when Spurs and Arsenal are in
the same division (which has always been the top flight) Arsenal lead 49
to 28.

Since 1995/6

These stats cover the 18 year run from 1995/6 to 2012/13.
I shall update them Real Soon Now!

The recent 18 in a row account for about 38% of all St Totteringham's days.

The (arithmetic) mean number of games after which Spurs have been unable
to reach Arsenal is 33.33 (up from 32.75 before 2010/11, and 33.05 after 2011/12),
the median is 32.5 (up from 32 in 10/11 and 11/12).
The mode is 38 (5 times), with 32 second (3 times).
The geometric mean is 33.1 games (up from 32.6 games before 11/12, and
33 in 11/12).

The range is 9 games (from 29 to 38), and the standard deviation is
3.49 games (up from 3.3 before 2011/12, and 3.4 in 11/12).

So we usually beat Spurs with roughly 6 games to go, mostly with 3-9
games, but when they're doing well it goes to the wire before we beat
them.

If you split the 18 seasons into two groups 1995/6 to 2002/4 and
2004/5 to 2012/13, then the (arithmetic) mean for the first half is 32.4
games, and for the second half 34.2 games.

Three of the five final day St T's in this run
have been in the last four years.

I still have to say: At some point in the summer I must tidy the section above up a bit.

Since 1970/1

There have been 35 St Totteringham's days. This excludes the the day in
1977 when Spurs were relegated, or the start of 1977/78 season, one of
which is arguably St T's for 1977/8.

For balance Spurs have finished above Arsenal 8 times in the 42 seasons
since our first double,
Including back to back seasons in 1981/2 and 1982/3. That puts our 19
seasons in a row in perspective. Well done Spurs.

Double or quits?

A one pound bet in 1995/6 on who'd finish above reinvested at double or
quits would have won £131,072 on May 19 2013, and £262,144 on April 28 2014.

In the interests of fairness Spurs run from 1959/60 until 1968/9 would
be worth £512 in the same way.

Longest Gap?

The longest gap is from 22 March 1935 until 6 April 1953. At 18 years,
15 days this is a long time. During this time Spurs spent eight years
in Division 2, and we had seven seasons lost to WW2, Spurs finished
above Arsenal twice. Oh and Arsenal won two league titles.

A similar issue happens around the First World War: 27 April 1912 is
the last St Ts until 5 May 1923. In that time Arsenal were in Division 2
for two years, as were Spurs for one. Spurs actually finished above
Arsenal in the same league 3 times in that run.

The longest run of Spurs actually finishing above Arsenal was the 1959/60
until 1968/9 run of ten years. Ouch. Those ten seasons account for just
under 36% of Spurs' finishes above Arsenal in the same division.

Earliest St Ts day?

The earliest St Totteringham was 9 March 2008. There have been 8 St Ts
in March, six since 1998. I wonder if this increase is a change caused
by 3 points per win stretching the table, as the season used to end in
April and now ends in May so you'd expect St Ts to be later.

date

year

matches

notes

9 March

2008

29 (38)

13 March

2004

28 (38)

18 March

2002

30 (38)

22 March

1935

34 (42)

2 points a win

24 March

2003

31 (38)

26 March

1994

34 (42)

27 March

1959

37 (42)

2 points a win

28 March

1998

29 (38)

In terms of games, in a 38 match season 28 is the record (2004) and
for 42 matches 34 is the best (1935). The one season with 40 matches
(1987/8) we needed 33 games. The lowest percentage is the 2004
season.

Last Day St Totteringham's

Last day St Ts are quite rare. There have been 10. (Strictly these are
last match which might not be the same!)

1911/12 (27 April)

1922/3 (5 May)

1926/7 (7 May) (Arsenal beating Spurs 4-0)

1973/4 (11 May)

1983/4 (12 May)

1995/6 (5 May)

2005/6 (7 May)

2009/10 (9 May)

2011/12 (13 May)

2012/13 (19 May)

For balance I will point out 1992/3 where they beat our reserves at
Highbury to finish above us in the league. We won the Cup Final against
Sheffield Weds the following week. I'll also point out 1951/2. Look it
up in the table. More dull is 1989/90.

Latest dates for St Totteringham's day

I noticed that 2011/12 was the latest St T's has ever been and still happened.
There have been eleven St Totteringham's in May:

Date

Seasons

19th

2012/3

13

2011/12

12

1983/4

11

1973/4

9

2009/10

8

1971/2

7

1926/7, 2005/6, 2010/11

5

1922/3, 1995/6

The increase in these is partly caused by the season ending later than
in the past, and partly by Arsenal finishing above Spurs so often recently.

St Totteringham's versus Spurs

Only three times has an Arsenal Spurs game been the match that caused St
Totteringham's. Two were wins, and one was a draw. They are...

Spurs 0 - 4 Arsenal, 7th May 1927

Arsenal 1 - 0 Spurs, 26 April 1975

Spurs 2 - 2 Arsenal, 21 April 2007

It has happened at least once in reverse (1992/3, see above), but I
haven't done the calculations on every season where Spurs beat us.