Kemba Walker – Draft Profile

I wrote a few reports prior to starting posting. This is the last of those, so starting next week Mo and I will settle into posting a report on Monday (me) and on Thursday (Mo). Hopefully we’re giving Cavs fans some additional food for thought on potential lottery picks.

Summary: Walker led UConn to the 2011 NCAA championship. He is a very fast point guard who had many outstanding performances in the 2010–11 NCAA season. His play in the Big East and NCAA tournaments has raised his draft stock to a potential top 5 pick. His speed and play-making ability will make him a quality PG in the NBA.

Basketball Bio: Walker attended Rice HS in New York City and was a top recruit in the class of 2008. He attended UConn and spent his freshman year as a primary bench player on a Final Four team. It was a solid season for Walker, highlighted by a 23 point, 5 rebound, 5 assist outing in the Elite Eight. Following that season; much of the team graduated or entered the draft, leaving Walker as a sophomore leader on a disappointing 18-16 team. Walker was the most effective player on the team, averaging 14.6 points, 4.3 rebounds, 5.1 assists and 2.1 steals in 35 minutes per game. Following his sophomore season, Walker was viewed as a late first-round draft pick due to his quickness and other skills. He returned to UConn and probably does not regret that choice. Walker was electric in 2010 – 2011 in leading UConn to the NCAA championship in addition to championships at the Maui Invitational and Big East Tournament. For the season, he averaged 23.5 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 4.5 assists in 37.5 minutes per game and was first team All-American and Most Outstanding Player at the NCAA tournament.

Skill Overview: Kemba Walker is very fast. He is a great athlete and ball handler that can change speed and direction at any moment. Defenders have trouble staying in front of him in the half court and on fast breaks, providing many scoring opportunities at the basket and frequent visits to the foul line. Walker is a great leader and made many big plays for UConn last year. He is a very hard worker and an above average rebounder for his position. He plays tough man-to-man defense and fights through screens when chasing his opponent off the ball.

Concerns about Walker include his size; many suggest he is shorter than his listed height. This results in shots getting blocked and is a defensive concern against bigger point guards. Walker has never been a consistent outside shooter. His 33% three point shooting may not bode well for effectiveness from NBA range. Finally, there are concerns about Walker as a “shoot-first” point guard. When driving, he is typically focused on scoring which can result in poor shots when a better option was to pass to an open teammate.

Additional Info / Advanced Stats: Walker significantly improved every year while at UConn. His PER improved from 17.4 in 2008–09 to 20.5 in 2009–10 to 29.6 this year (15th in the country). Walker was tasked with handling much of the Huskies’ offense this year (31% usage rate), and the results were good as the Huskies are national champs. That said, the road to an NBA championship is not built on Kemba Walker using 31% of his team’s possessions. He scored frequently but somewhat inefficiently. He took 18 field goal attempts per game and shot 43/33/82. His 54% true shooting was respectable due to his eight free throw attempts per game. In the Final Four, he scored 34 points on 34 field goal attempts while distributing 7 assists against 6 turnovers. Scoring efficiently will not be any easier in the NBA.

Regarding his prospects for NBA 3-point shooting, Walker is described as having good shooting mechanics. From his freshman to sophomore year, his three point shooting improved from 27% to 34% as he worked hard to improve between seasons. He dropped to 33% his junior year, however he was asked to take shots he shouldn’t take in the NBA. Of his almost 6 threes a game last year, many were contested. Assuming natural progression from a player with a fluid shot and strong work ethic, Walker should convert spot up NBA 3s at a rate higher than his contested college shots.

Where Walker most needs to improve is showing the inclination to pass more often when he drives to the basket. Replacing some low percentage shots for himself with high percentage shots for teammates would greatly improve Walker’s effectiveness. Walker has exhibited good passing skills, as after his sophomore year nbadraft.net said he has “above average vision with the ball, showing the ability to hit the open man, open up the floor, or thread the needle”. At that time, DraftExpress.com said that Walker “has a lot of good tools, excelling in the pick-and-roll game and showing good court vision in general, capable of making tough passes to cutters in the lane.” Walker has improved at taking care of the ball, as this year he committed turnovers on only 11.6% of his possessions (6th best in the Big East). Through reducing turnovers, Walker has improved his pure point rating every year of his college career.

Assuming Walker can balance scoring and distributing more effectively; a best case scenario is as a high quality third scoring option on a contender (like Tony Parker, although Walker’s situation won’t be as good). As a third offensive threat, Walker should not feel the need to force shots and could play to the opportunity/match-up. A lower end of the potential career spectrum for Walker could be similar to Lou Williams or Brandon Jennings; small, fast guards who are more scorers than distributors. Walker will not be a franchise changer, but he will be a quality NBA point guard.

One final note is that Walker is from New York and has mentioned that it would be fun to play for the Knicks. If you are not yet prepared to see another face-of-the-Cavs wearing a NY Yankees hat, Kemba Walker is not the lottery pick for you.

3 Responses to “Kemba Walker – Draft Profile”

Think Knight has a much better chance of being a winning contributor than Walker. Knight has a MUCH bigger upside physically and mentally (not a knock on Walker, it’s just that Knight is extremely intelligent).

I like this kid – he’s a winner, a leader, a defender and a scoreer. Now, if we could add passer to his resume, hed be that much better. If we miss on Irving and the Cavs maintain bellief that we need to go after a PG this draft, then either Kemba or Knight would be good choices. Neither one will be expected to be a franchise player in just one year, but I could see either exceeding expectations – and be kind of like a Westbrook. Guys that you know have skills but somehow ‘click’ even more at the NBA level than in college.

Currently I’m more interested in Knight. I like Knight’s size and how young he is. He has rough edges but with Davis and Sessions, Knight would be someone the Cavs could draft and play at the 1 or 2 as part of an undersized lineup. Knight can further develop his skills in a situation where he doesn’t need to be the PG right away. Ideally Knight would develop into a high quality pg right around the time that A) Davis’ contract is over and B) the Cavs are ready to compete again.

The Lineup: (Click for Author’s Archive)

Nate Smith is an Associate Editor. He grew up in Anchorage, Alaska, and moved to NE Ohio in 2000. He adopted the Cavs in 2003 and graduated from Kent State in 2009 with a BA in English. He can be contacted at oldseaminer@gmail.com or @oldseaminer on Twitter.

Tom Pestak is an Associate Editor. He's from the west side of Cleveland and lives and (mostly) dies by the success and (mostly) failures of his beloved teams. You can watch his fanaticism during Cavs games @tompestak.

Robert Attenweiler is a Staff Writer. Originally from OH, he's long made his home in NYC where he writes plays and screenplays (www.disgracedproductions.com) some of which end up being about Ohio, basketball or both. He has also written for The Classical and the blog Raising the Cadavalier. You can contact him at rattenweiler@gmail.com or @cadavalier.

Benjamin Werth is a Staff Writer. He was born in Cleveland and raised in Mentor, OH. He now lives in Germany where he is an opera singer and actor. He can be reached at blfwerth@gmail.com.

Cory Hughey is a Staff Writer. He grew up in Youngstown, the Gary, Indiana of Ohio. He graduated from Youngstown State in 2008 with a worthless telecommunications degree. He can be contacted at theleperfromwatts@yahoo.com or @coryhughey on Twitter.

David Wood is our Links Editor. He is a 2012 Graduate of Syracuse University with an English degree who loves bikes, beer, basketball, writing, and Rimbaud. He can be reached on Twitter: @nothingwood.

Mallory Factor is the voice of Cavs: The Podcast. By day Mallory works in fundraising and by night he runs a music business company. To see his music endeavors check out www.fivetracks.com. Hit him up at Malloryfactorii@gmail.com or @Malfii.

John Krolik is the Editor Emeritus of Cavs: The Blog. At present, he is pursuing a law degree at Tulane University. You can contact him at johnkrolik@gmail.com or @johnkrolik.

Follow Me On Twitter

General NBA

Other Places To Find My Work

The Comment Monster

A monster lives in the comments section of Cavs: The Blog, and he likes to feed on comments. We have very little idea about when he will strike. What we do know is that comments with 2 or more links will get filed into the spam folder, as will comments with foul or discriminatory language. The comment monster also seems to enjoy extra-long comments, so if you have a long comment, you may want to press copy before submitting a long comment and break it into multiple pieces if the monster eats it. If you are having particular trouble with the monster, email one of us and we will talk to him for you.