Newberry: Five reasons 49ers will upset Patriots

The New England Patriots are everyone's No. 1 team in football after dominating a premier Monday Night matchup everyone thought would be competitive.

And unlike the Texans, the Patriots don't fear the bright lights and it's a good thing because they'll be back in the spotlight Sunday night against San Francisco.

I expect the 49ers to go in and win that game. It's just how this league usually works. The underdogs win a lot, I can tell by my awful record predicting this sport.

The most recent ESPN rankings have the Patriots, Broncos and Texans as the top three teams in the league.

Here are five reasons for optimism as the NFC tries to state its case after some recent hits.

1. Two of the three losses by New England have come against NFC West defenses. They lost at home to Arizona and on the road to Seattle. No shame in doing the latter.

2. The Patriots other loss came against the Harbaugh family as John's Ravens tried to get a bit of revenge for last year's AFC Championship loss. Just a little more motivation for Jim and the 49ers to make it Harbaughs 2, Patriots 0.

3. The 49ers defense is second overall and second against the pass. Yes, the Texans had a good defense early in the season but even before Monday they had showed major slippage against Jacksonville and Detroit. The 49ers have the sack leader in Aldon Smith (19.5 and counting) but aren't as dependent on one player as Houston is with J.J. Watt.

4. Colin Kaepernick. The second-year quarterback from Nevada was elevated in place of Alex Smith, shocking many used to watching coaches play it safe. He helped lose a game to the Rams but has made big plays in his other three starts. He has the highest recorded QBR in his first four starts since the stat was created in 2008. It was this kind of game, where it'll take 23-30 points to win, where Harbaugh wanted to have Kaepernick's big-play ability on his side.

5. Star linebackers. The linebackers aren't really the big-name guys in this day and age but the Patriots really put teams in a bind with their ability to run against the nickel packages and find matchups with their tight ends. Two of the best inside guys in the business, Patrick Willis and Navarro Bowman, will get a chance to show their skills against running back Steven Ridley and on short routes against Aaron Hernandez and Wes Welker.

I'll clear the air to those of you who don't know and admit that I've followed the 49ers closely for many years, watching every loss many years thanks to the Sunday Ticket, and am hoping this is all true. Obviously there's a case to be made for the Patriots as well.

I'm really looking forward to seeing one of the best new coaches this year has seen in Jim Harbaugh going against one of the masters. Another win for NBC, while ESPN is trying to figure out an honest way to hype Jets and Titans the following night. I promise you that's tougher than finding reasons the Patriots' seven-game win streak will end.