MONSOON ADVANCEMENT
The South West monsoon further withdrew from remaining parts of Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, North Arabian sea, Entire Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Marathwada, most parts of Odisha, Madhya Maharashtra and Konkan and some parts of Gangetic west Bengal, Telangana, North Interior Karnataka and Central Arabian sea.
The withdrawl line passes through Forbesganj, Bankura, Cuttack, Hanamkonda, Gulbarga, Ratnagiri, Latitude 17 0 North / longitude 70 0 East and Latitude 17 0 North / longitude 60 0 East.
Also, conditions are indicative of further withdrawal of South west monsoon from remaining parts of country during next 3-4 days. Conditions are favorable for commencement of North east monsoon rains over Tamil Nadu, Kerala and adjoining areas of Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka around 22 nd October 2013.

VAGARIES POST on Saturday Night
the Monsoon axis has slid down South fast. A low has formed off TN coast, at 11N and 85E. Embedded in the East coast trough.This is expected to become well marked on Sunday and track towards North TN coast, and strike by Tuesday, 22nd or 23rd.
With an UAC off the South Karnataka coast, the axis now joins the 2 systems.

Vagaries assumptions / predictions on Saturday night
The Monsoon axis runs from Goa SE to Chennai and into the SE Bay.
Seeing the East winds along the axis, I would expect the SWM to withdraw from the country on Monday, and with the change of winds, simultanious commencement of NEM on 21st October. Vagaries first announcement ( in NEM Watch -2 dt. 3rd October) of NEM date of 20th October proves correct…

Chennai, as forecasted yesterday, will get a thunderstorm on Sunday Night, heralding the NEM. Rains expected to continue next couple of days.

continued from early post
A low is expected to form off the South Karnataka coast in the Arabian Sea around the 23rd/24th of October. Expected to track N/NW, and become well marked…and move along the Goa/Mah. coastline…Mumbai can expect some showers on Friday 25th and Saturday 26th October. Showers also expected in Goa.
This Low may turn out to be counter productive for the NEM till the low exists. But, in any case, we are expecting the NEM to under perform till October end.

IMD Prediction of Meteorological Condition
Under the influence of the upper air cyclonic circulation over southeast Bay of Bengal, a low pressure area may form over southwest Bay of Bengal during next 48 hours.