On paper, the division of power and jurisdictional authority between Ottawa and the provinces is relatively straightforward.

Sections 91-95 of the British North America Act lay out which levels of government are responsible for what. The feds are in charge of currency, the armed forces, the post office and criminal law. The provinces run the school systems, public lands, hospitals, property and civil rights and all matters of a “local or private nature”. Immigration and agriculture are shared jurisdictions.

That’s how we do things — on paper. Except … environmental protection was not a thing in 1867, nor were pipelines. And expensive items such as health care, education and infrastructure have led to the federal government spending vast sums in areas where it has no constitutional jurisdiction to legislate. The result has been a complicated system of deals, side-deals and bilateral, even trilateral, funding arrangements involving all three levels of government.

Canada has a new prime minister with a “sunny ways” mantra. His predecessor loathed First Ministers’ conferences. Trudeau has set himself to do things differently.

On Thursday, he hosts a First Minister’s conference in Vancouver, the aim of which is to hammer out some sort of climate change deal to cut carbon emissions. Good luck with that.

While the PM was snowboarding at Whistler, the first shots were already being fired across the bow. Saskatchewan Premier Brad Wall, who is seeking re-election on April 4 in a dismal economic climate of depressed prices for oil, gas and potash, is already campaigning hard against any form of carbon tax. The most popular premier in Canada knows that standing up for his province and its beleaguered resource companies will guarantee him a third term.

Some advice for Mr. Trudeau: Keep Couillard and Wall separated at dinner — and make sure they get plastic cutlery.

This week, in what can only be described as an act of provocation, the government of Quebec Premier Philippe Couillard announced that it would be going to court to seek an injunction preventing construction of the proposed Energy East pipeline, unless the project is subjected to, and approved by, Quebec’s environmental regulatory process.

Setting aside the constitutional problems this raises (interprovincial pipelines are generally thought of as being under the exclusive jurisdiction of the National Energy Board) the timing is more than a little curious. Energy East is months, probably years, away from approval. Why file for injunctory relief now — on the eve of a First Ministers’ conference?

Quebec might believe its action will give it leverage going into the FMC. The immediate result, however, will be division and hard feelings — likely putting a deal on climate change beyond Trudeau’s reach for the time being.

Predictably, Premier Wall was first out of the chute, calling Quebec’s announcement “divisive” and adding that provinces should not be superimposing their own process onto the national one — especially when they’ve already made up their mind to oppose the project.

At a hastily-called media conference at the Alberta Legislature, Premier Rachel Notley was only slightly more circumspect. She indicated that her first instinct was to come out guns a-blazing — but after a long phone conversation with an unidentified Quebec official, she decided to take a wait-and-see approach.

“I am going to leave the gun in the holster until we are actually at the gunfight,” she said, adding that her holster was “at the ready.”

Guns and holsters — these are not the words you hear premiers use before a productive FMC. They are, to borrow Bugs Bunny’s deathless phrase, “fightin’ words”.

The prime minister downplayed the obvious derailment of his agenda with some fortune cookie rationalization. “Even though governments grant permits,” he said, “ultimately only communities grant permission.”

Some advice for Mr. Trudeau: Keep Couillard and Wall separated at dinner — and make sure they get plastic cutlery.

Ironically, Premier Notley was positioned to be the PM’s ally on a climate change plan. But given Quebec’s ill-timed announcement, she has been pushed into a corner and must be seen to be defending Alberta’s interests.

So there will be no deal on carbon emissions reduction this week, or on anything else. The prime minister will learn an important lesson in Canadian federalism — the one every prime minister learns sooner or later, and the reason why Stephen Harper instinctively avoided any room with more than two premiers in it. Justin Trudeau will long for the black diamond runs at Whistler — much easier to navigate than any First Ministers’ conference.

Brent Rathgeber was the Conservative MP for the riding of Edmonton—St. Albert from 2008 to 2013, when he resigned from the Conservative caucus to protest the Harper government’s lack of commitment to transparency and open government. He ran and lost in the 2015 federal election to a Conservative candidate. He is the author of Irresponsible Government: The Decline of Parliamentary Democracy in Canada.

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