Posted!

Join the Conversation

Comments

Welcome to our new and improved comments, which are for subscribers only.
This is a test to see whether we can improve the experience for you.
You do not need a Facebook profile to participate.

You will need to register before adding a comment.
Typed comments will be lost if you are not logged in.

Please be polite.
It's OK to disagree with someone's ideas, but personal attacks, insults, threats, hate speech, advocating violence and other violations can result in a ban.
If you see comments in violation of our community guidelines, please report them.

New York Times reports St. Cloud is No. 1 place an outbreak might come next. Why?

ST. CLOUD — St. Cloud has topped the charts in a New York Times report on where in the U.S. a coronavirus outbreak might come next.

The New York Times article reported Friday St. Cloud has the highest average daily growth rate of cases in the country, with a daily growth rate of 42% and cases doubling every two days. It cites growth rates as a measure that can tell whether things are improving or worsening.

Minnesota Department of Health Infectious Disease Director Kris Ehresmann was not available for an interview Friday, but did say in an emailed statement the data reflected COVID-19 spread at meat processing plants in the area and aggressive screening and testing surrounding those situations.

A New York Times report Friday lists St. Cloud with the highest average daily growth rate of COVID-19 cases in the past two weeks.(Photo: Screenshot, The New York Times)

"It is to be expected when you have facilities in which transmission of the virus is amplified," Ehresmann said.

The screening and testing is to ensure those who are ill do not come to work.

"This type of aggressive screening and testing of a large population will result in these types of increases," Ehresmann said.

The growth rates reported in the chart are averaged over the previous week, according to the New York Times article.

A "snapshot-in-time" approach like this can be misleading, Ehresmann wrote, because it does not "give a true picture of the true prevalence in a community."

"Especially if a community starts out with a low number of cases, a sudden surge of testing can inflate the rate," she said in the email. "That said, it is clear that COVID 19 is circulating widely in the St. Cloud area, as it is throughout the state."

Stearns County reported 101 new cases of COVID-19 Thursday and another 168 Friday, according to the Department of Health. Total cases in Stearns County as of Friday were 435. Of the 87 counties in the state, two counties — Hennepin and Nobles — have more confirmed cases than Stearns County.

In a press release Thursday, Stearns County Public Health Division Director Renee Frauendienst said the dramatic increase of cases in the county was expected.

"As testing increases, we will see more disease," she said in the release. "We knew it was in our community through the illness surveillance project we've been doing with CentraCare Health. Now testing confirmed that."

As of 3:30 p.m. Friday, Stearns County did not respond to an emailed request for comment on the Times report.

The New York Times article says other measurements would be helpful in understanding the pandemic's progress, but that confirmed cases and deaths are the most useful daily statistics available at a local level nationwide.

This is a developing story. Please check back for more updates.

Sarah Kocher is the business reporter for the St. Cloud Times. Reach her at 320-255-8799 or skocher@stcloudtimes.com. Follow her on Twitter @SarahAKocher.