3 Big Things Today, January 7

1. Soybeans Higher Overnight on Trade Optimism

Soybeans rose, headed for a fourth straight gain, on optimism that the U.S. and China will find common ground and ink a trade agreement before the March 1 deadline.

Negotiators from the world’s two largest economies are holding talks this week, giving traders, analysts, and producers hope that a deal will be made.

The countries came to a preliminary agreement at the start of December under which the U.S. would delay increasing its tariff rate on Chinese product, while Beijing said it would buy more agricultural products.

If a deal isn’t made by March 1, the U.S. would increase its tariff rate on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods to 25% from 10%. China would, no doubt, retaliate should that happen.

Soybeans for March delivery rose 3¼¢ to $9.24¾ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soy meal gained $2 to $321 a short ton, and soy oil added 0.04¢ to 28.68¢ a pound.

Corn gained ¼¢ to $3.83¼ a bushel overnight.

Wheat, meanwhile, fell 2¢ to $5.15 a bushel, while Kansas City futures lost 2¾¢ to $5.03¼ a bushel overnight.

In case you missed it, the USDA on Friday said it will delay release of reports from the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) and Office of the Chief Economist – World Agricultural Outlook Board (OCE-WAOB).

NASS was scheduled to release several reports on Friday, January 11, but because of the partial government shutdown, the reports will be put on hold for now.

The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report from the WAOB and the crop production, grain stocks, rice stocks, winter wheat, and canola seedings and cotton ginnings reports from NASS that were all scheduled for release on Friday will be delayed, according to the USDA.

“Given the lead time required for the analysis and compilation (of the aforementioned reports), those reports will not be released … as originally scheduled even if funding is restored before that date,” the department said in a statement. “The date of all NASS and OCE-WAOB releases will be determined and made public once funding has been restored.”

Daily and weekly Export Sales Reports also continue to be put off until the government shutdown ends.

There’s no end in sight to the shutdown, as President Trump refuses to fund the government unless his $5 billion border wall is funded. He’s threatened to declare a national emergency to bypass Congress, a move that would initiate a long legal battle.

A winter weather advisory is in effect for much of the northern Midwest, as ice, snow, and strong winds hit parts of the Dakotas, Minnesota, and Wisconsin.

Freezing drizzle is falling in eastern North Dakota and northeastern South Dakota counties and in northern Minnesota, creating dangerous driving conditions, according to the National Weather Service.

“Freezing rain and freezing drizzle have left many of the roads in central Minnesota icy,” the NWS said in a report early this morning. “Temperatures are not expected to rise above freezing until midmorning.”

Farther east in northern Wisconsin, a winter storm warning is in effect until noon.

An additional 4 inches of snow on top of what’s already fallen are expected in the region, though some may turn to rain this morning, the agency said.

Eight inches of accumulation are forecast in the area, accompanied by strong winds of up to 35 mph. The combination of snow and wind will reduce visibility and make travel dangerous, the NWS said.

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