… “I don’t think people really
understand the magnitude of the hog supply in China,” said Jayson Lusk,
department head and distinguished professor at Purdue University. “The amount
of hogs they lost is double the size of the U.S. hog sector, so it’s a big deal
and the question is will the Chinese be able to substitute to poultry, beef,
and that may be something that’s a little more difficult to reverse”…

It is being described as the
biggest animal disease outbreak the world has ever seen. Its impacts are
already profound in Asia and beyond, with increased export demand certain to
support pork prices for the foreseeable future. There will be longer-term
implications of Asia’s African swine fever (ASF) outbreak, too, concerning the production
and consumption of pork, some of which are already becoming apparent…

ASF’s Impact on Protein Demand in China Could Have
Long Tail

Tyne Morgan, FarmJournal's Pork

October 1, 2019

The pork industry continues to grapple with the impact of
African Swine Fever. From supply to demand, it's an outbreak that could have a
lasting effect.

“I don’t think people really understand the magnitude of
the hog supply in China,” said Jayson Lusk, department head and distinguished
professor at Purdue University. “The amount of hogs they lost is double the
size of the U.S. hog sector, so it’s a big deal and the question is will the
Chinese be able to substitute to poultry, beef, and that may be something
that’s a little more difficult to reverse.”

The need to find other proteins could be negative for
pork, as they'll need to find other proteins to fill their needs.

“I think they’re going to in the short run, because they
don’t really have many other options," he said.

Alistair Driver explains how the devastating spread of
African swine fever is affecting the market today and could shape global
protein production and consumption in the future

It is being described as the biggest animal disease
outbreak the world has ever seen. Its impacts are already profound in Asia and
beyond, with increased export demand certain to support pork prices for the
foreseeable future. There will be longer-term implications of Asia’s African
swine fever (ASF) outbreak, too, concerning the production and consumption of
pork, some of which are already becoming apparent.

The global pork industry will need to be wary that
short-term gain does not turn into long-term pain.

The scale of what is happening in Asia is staggering –
ASF is an animal welfare, social and economic disaster of astonishing
proportions.

The virus has spread across the whole of China since it
was first discovered in August 2018.

Official figures from China show the national pig herd
had declined by 32% year-on-year by July, with an estimated 100 million pigs
lost already. While some of the losses will be directly or indirectly linked to
the disease itself, the reduction is also being heavily driven by vast numbers
of producers choosing to slaughter their herds and get out of pigs before the
virus gets to them.

Rabobank is forecasting that, by the end of the year,
China’s pig herd will have halved. Given that it numbered 700 million and
accounted for half the world’s pigs before ASF struck in August 2018, the
damage the virus is causing is plain for all to see.

And that is just China. ASF is continuing to spread
across Asia at a worrying rate, confirmed in September for the first time in
South Korea, where six cases were confirmed within two weeks, and the
Philippines, where 12 cases were recorded in one area in a short time.

In Vietnam, infected soon after China, the virus has
reached all 63 provinces and around 5 million pigs have been killed. Rabobank
forecasts a 15-20% reduction in pork production in Vietnam this year.

ASF has also been recorded in North Korea, Vietnam,
Cambodia, Laos, Mongolia, Hong Kong and Myanmar. So far.

These are typically, like China, countries with large pig
populations and consumers traditionally hugely reliant on pork to satisfy their
protein needs – in Vietnam, pork accounts for three-quarters of all meat
consumed.

Ineffective Response

There is little real sign of the virus being under
control in China, which continued to report new cases in September. The
response was hampered by a number of factors from the start.

An industry comprising millions of, often remote,
‘backyard’ farmers, with little concept of biosecurity was always going to be
easy prey for a virus that can travel and survive in tiny quantities for a long
time on animals, people, clothes, vehicles and equipment. It also became clear
at an early stage that the virus had become embedded in the pig feed chain and
was being spread via swill feeding. It is also in the human pork supply chain,
helping its spread around the continent.

The authorities, clearly unprepared, have never looked in
control. In July, the Chinese Government acknowledged that there were still
weak points in the system and announced that it was strengthening controls.

These included better biosecurity on farms, raising
awareness of the waste feeding ban, improving the management of transport of
pigs and pork products and improved supervision at abattoirs.

But they still have a mountain to climb, as this insight
from an ASF-affected farmer quoted in the South China Morning Post highlights.

Chen Yun, who kept around 10,000 pigs in the southern
Jiangxi province, said he had lost more than five million yuan (about £570,000)
after his farm became infected in June.

“The biggest problem is there are no [effective]epidemic
prevention measures. Local insurance companies and governments have not
compensated us for the losses caused by the spread of the fever,” he said.

“We buried the dead pigs who died in just one or two days
and then had to sell the 10,000 live pigs at a dirt cheap price, including
breeding pigs, sows and piglets. My heart was broken.”

Under-reporting, linked to a lack of compensation, is
thought to be common, while the sight of mass live burials of Chinese pigs that
have emerged in video footage only reinforces the sense of horror and chaos.

It is a picture also seen elsewhere. Footage of pigs
dumped in a river close to where the virus struck in the Philippines, for
example, paints a worrying picture.