Stuff

There aren’t normally many polls on Sunday night – YouGov’s Sun poll will be out later – but I’ve had chance to look at more of the YouGov/Sunday Times data from yesterday/this morning, including that article from Peter Kellner on marginal data.

Looking at the rest of the YouGov/Sunday Times results, Nick Clegg continues to enjoy his “Churchillian” approval ratings – 77% think he is doing a good job as Lib Dem leader, 14% a bad job. Asked which party poses the bigger risk to the recovery, respondents were evenly split – 34% thought Conservative spending cuts were the biggest risk, 35% thought Labour’s National Insurance rise posed the bigger threat.

There were a series of questions about hung Parliaments – 37% thought a hung Parliament with the Lib Dems holding the balance of power would be a good thing, 41% disagreed. As you might expect, Lib Dem voters overwhelmingly thought it would be good, and not particularly surprisingly Tory voters overwhelmingly thought it would be bad. Interestingly a substantial minor of Labour voters (36%) thought it would be a good thing (presumably part of that will be people considering it the alternative to a Tory majority!). People were evenly split when asked whether they believed a hung Parliament could result in Britain turning to the IMF – 32% agreed and 33% disagreed.

Asked whether they thought Conservative claims that voting for Nick Clegg could result in Gordon Brown remaining Prime Minister were true, 40% thought they were true, with 30% disagreeing. Most of that 40% said it made no difference to how they would vote (they would either vote Lib Dem anyway, or weren’t going to anyhow) – however, 14% of Lib Dem voters said they it might effect their vote, and they would not want to risk keeping Gordon Brown in power.

YouGov also asked if various election results would delight or dismay respondents. 24% would be delighted by a Cameron majority government, the highest figure, but 47% would be dismayed. As you might expect, most Conservatives would be delighted, most Labour and a significant majority of Lib Dem supporters would be dismayed. Asked about a Brown majority goverment 17% would be delighted (since almost a third of Labour supporters said only they wouldn’t mind), 50% would be dismayed.

Now it gets interesting – asked about a Cameron led Con/LD coalition, it is less popular than a Conservative majority. Only 8% would be delighted, and 52% would be dismayed (the highest figure). The reason is 53% of Lib Dem supporters would still be dismayed by such a result, and only 6% delighted, while 33% of Conservative supporters would be dismayed by such a result. What about a Gordon Brown led Lab/LD coalition? This is slightly more popular, 10% would be delighted and 49% dismayed, but still less popular than a Labour majority. Contrast this with a Lab/LD coalition under a different Labour leader – 11% would be delighted (including 24% of Lib Dem voters), and only 43% dismayed.

Finally 21% would be delighted at a majority Lib Dem coalition, with just 32% dismayed (since 31% of Tories and 40% of Labour wouldn’t mind). 8% would be delighted at a grand coalition, 45% dismayed.

In the Times Peter Kellner also has an article based on the aggregated YouGov data, broken down to look at marginal seats. There the Conservatives have a swing of only 4%, compared to a national swing of 4% across the same period – so this poll shows the Lib Dem bounce cancelling out the Conservatives previous outpermance in marginal seats. Two caveats need adding to this – firstly it’s just one poll, and we’ve had a MORI marginals poll in the same period showing the Conservatives continuing to do better in marginals. Secondly, my understanding is that the aggregated data is all of YouGov’s polling between the first and second debate, so it’s during the peak of the Clegg boost, rather than the modest Conservative recovery we’ve seen since then.

Finally, I’ve had little chance to keep track of Scottish voting intention polls during the election, but there was also a YouGov poll of Scottish voting intentions this morning. Topline figures were CON 15%, LAB 36%, LDEM 24%, SNP 22%. What strikes me the most there is how close it is to the 2005 election result compared to GB figures – the Conservatives are down 1 since 2005, Labour down 3, the Liberal Democrats up 1, the SNP up 4. If the general election result is anything like that, I would not expect many Scottish seats to change hands.

Amber:
If LD are slightly ahead of LAB on % of vote, are LD going to ignore the fact that many LAB voters will have voted LD to keep the CONs out?
……………………
This is my point earlier, and why I don’t think I would now TV.
We have FPTP to give these figures, so then we look and % votes and ignore seats?

Mark Johnson CL – agree with you about the moral position and in fact a LD/Con coallition for a few months whilst Labour find a new leader would not be bad for Labour.

Please get your facts right about Mandy, though, twice resigned not sacked.
First time for doing what millions of people do borrowing a bit of money privately biut not telling the building society (sub Bank of Parents for Bank of Robonson). Second time to clear his name which he did fully.

I rarley rebut but sometimes you stray from the comments policy too far.
Roland – we miss your humour.

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And many people have voted Tory for a lifetime to keep Labour out – and many people Labour for a lifetime to keep the Tories out.
And maybe some people will vote Cameron to try and prevent a hung parliament, but I noticed that he has studiously refused to rule out a deal with the Lib Dems.

I am not sure the reason why anyone ultimately votes the way they do on May 6 really matters. In the end it is only the result that counts. If the LibDems come second they come second. All parties are attempting to gain votes by whatever means possible.

“I think he’s nuts, as the issue of electoral reform will, IMHO, always prove insurmountable for any LibDem partnership with the Conservatives. What do you guys think?”

See practically daily posts by me over the last 10 days….

@Neil A

“Those that Cameron’s “vote Clegg get Brown” message was targeting”

I happen to agree that this was the underlying rationale i.e LD’s have kept the Lab voters they garnered in their surge but seem to have lost a good deal of the Con-LD anti-GB waiverers,

But of course it is a fine judgement- they might not convince current Cons to come over again as they did in the initial surge whilst at the same time losing some of the Lab voters they had collected.

I think he should simply be honest and say “this electoral system is NUTS: I will only support a party that gives the UK people a referendum between AV, AV+, STV and D’hondt systems: NOT a referendum that allows for a result that retains FPTPP”.

Oh I like those YouGov figures. Close polls and close elections are so much more interesting, and that sure seems to point towards a narrowing.
Does anyone know if other polls are expected tonight which may confirm or contradict?

Lib Dem position seems to be fairly stable with Labour nearly always in third (or occassional joint second) over last week. The bubble has not burst and so all to play for in final 10 days.

Concerns over voter turnout should be weighed against record number of registrations which are likely to be younger voters and reasonable to assume most will vote if they have taken the time to register.

Unless there is a real game changer, perhaps with the final debate or press stories, current polls may well be close to the final result.

Let me know if your still on and I’ll write you up an answer to your NI question.

@Mitz, Howard, Percy and Scottleag

I respect that opinions on Ms Smith are varied. I liked her I have to say. She did get the home office very young and perhaps it was inexperience that rendered her less effective than one would hope. Miliband got the F.O. and I would argue it is quite easy to look fairly competent in that role. Alan Johnson and Ed Balls stand out as highly effective in my opinion.

Regarding blue hopes on tonights poll. can I draw blues attention to previosu Sunday night polls. It is always somewhat less pleasing a result than a monday YG poll for you guys. I have not put my finger on why yet.

the vast majority of people who vote Lib Dem will do that because they like the Lib Dems (at least for now). there will be just as many, if not more people voting Labour to keep the Tories out as voting Lib Dem to keep the Tories out – after all there are far more Lab-Tory marginals than Lib Dem ones. Here in Horsforth, 40% or so will vote Lib dem in the local elections and probably only 20% in the general election. When the Lib Dems were doing well in Pudsey constituency in the 1980’s 35% of people in Horsforth voted Lib Dem in a general election. People vote for all sorts of reasons and generally speaking the votes average out to a good reflection of the actual popularity of the parties.

Saying that you are going to change your vote because the final % votes might somehow be misleading is almost as perverse as the voting system! Saying you are going to vote Labour because that is what you believe in, and Tories and Lib Dems are just as bad as each other (relative to Labour) is fine – a position of principle.

Saying that Labour have a right to govern because they have more seats than anyone else, even if they have less votes, could never be a position of principle, IMHO. It is a position of expediency…