Mining investment and GDP profile study

Deloitte Access Economics

Mining related investment is currently the main driver of Australian economic activity, however as commodity prices fall and cost effective opportunities for further resources expansion recede, the contribution of resources investment to economic activity will moderate.

But what will the expected shortfall in GDP over the medium term be?

Mining investment (including oil and gas) has been a major driver of economic growth in Australia, however the national economy is now in transition. Mining investment is peaking and will soon start to detract from economic growth.

The impact of this change will depend on the rate of mining investment decline, and the ability of other economic activity to fill the gap, including infrastructure investment.

Highlights

This report, Investment and GDP profile study, supports the Business Council of Australia's (BCA) Securing Investment in Australia's Future initiative, and examines:

The current macroeconomic backdrop

Projected mining investment

The broader investment and economic outlook

It then moves on to a series of mining investment scenarios.

The report concludes that, although it is very unlikely that other areas of investment will pick up pace enough to completely offset the expected mining investment decline, there is a significant pipeline of major infrastructure opportunities that, in a supportive macroeconomic environment, will fill at least some of the gap.

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