We have former Tory Chancellor Norman Lamont to thank for the term "green shoots" to describe the first signs of a post-recession return to growth. In the depths of the last downturn, in December 1991, he told a Tory party conference: "The green shoots of economic recovery are appearing once again" - only to be greeted with ridicule and contempt.

The reaction was pretty much the same earlier this year, when business minister Baroness Vadera said she was "seeing a few green shoots" on a day when thousands of job losses had been confirmed. But last month the chairman of the US Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, said: "I do see green shoots. Not everywhere, but certainly in some of the markets that we've been functioning in. And we've seen some improvement in the banks as well."

Some commentators believe Bernanke's statement proves nothing other than he needs his eyes testing, or that he is doing his best to talk up the economy and lift the mood of the nation. But there are others who believe that if the shoots aren't visible now, they soon will be as a result of the sheer scale of the economic stimulus package, and the Bank of England's quantitative easing policy. So far, however, the evidence is patchy ...

House prices

Earlier this month came data showing the first rise in house prices in 17 months. The encouraging figures, from the Nationwide Building Society, showed the average value of a home across the UK creeping ahead by 0.9% in March, adding more than £3,000 to the average price of a home.

Just a few days earlier, the Bank of England said the number of home loans taken out had risen by 19% in February, with some 38,000 approved during the month, and the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors has reported an increase in the number of prospective buyers viewing houses.

A good sign?Prices are down nearly 20% on their 2007 peak, but many economists have said the full decline will be 30%.

Nick Hopkinson of Property Portfolio Rescue, which buys houses from distressed buy-to-let borrowers, describes the Nationwide's reported increase as a "statistical blip" which would "not fool anybody who is struggling to sell their home or obtain realistic mortgage finance in the real world". He adds: "Sales volumes are currently so low that the monthly house price statistics from any one single lender are virtually meaningless, and if you look at Nationwide's latest quarterly data, it in fact shows a 4% decline on the previous quarter."

Sure enough, just a day later, figures from the Halifax seemed to prove the Nationwide's numbers were a one-off - although the rate of decline measured by the Halifax has slowed.

In the US, prices are down 19% in the past year and 29% from their peak - and the most recent figure, published last week, revealed the biggest decline since the index started.

It was a downturn in the US housing market three years ago that led us into these problems, and there are those who believe it will also lead us out. If that is true, hold on tight for more.Green shoot rating 1 out of 5

Mortgage arrears

Richard Pym, chairman of the nationalised parts of Bradford & Bingley, has just reported a chink of light in the figures for customers who are behind with their mortgage payments. For the first time since he arrived in August, the number of customers in short-term arrears - one month or so - has started to fall.

A good sign?B&B itself is keen to suggest that the figure might just be a blip. The number of borrowers three or more months behind is far more important, and there is no sign of improvement there yet.Green shoot rating 1 out of 5

The high street

Sales of homewares in March have just recorded their first increase - up 5.7% - since last summer and non-fashion retailers also had a good month, up 6.3%, according to the new BDO Stoy Hayward high street sales tracker, which measures the performance of mid-sized retailers and covers about 10,000 outlets in the UK.

Overall retail sales, say the accountants, were ahead 1.3% in the month. "After a dismal February and very difficult trading conditions on the high street, retailers reported surprisingly robust results in March," says Rupert Eastell of BDO. "Underlying demand was much higher than we expected, and sales appear to have been bolstered by the driest March weather for six years."

Homeware sales were "excellent", led by improved trade among DIY and furniture retailers.

New sales figures from John Lewis are also encouraging. Sales are still down on last year, but the store group says it has just had its best week this year. Furniture sales were the strongest seen for some time and gift sales were up 18%. Most interestingly, the group's Peter Jones store in Chelsea - the bankers' heartland - was the best-performing store. Peter Jones was the first John Lewis store to go into decline when the credit crunch started, but over the past three weeks trade there has steadily improved.

A good sign?Homeware sales were bolstered by discounting and promotions, which reduces retailers' margins and therefore profits. Non-fashion sales were given a boost by the early Mothers' Day, with gift, luxury and beauty stores doing particularly well. But leisure goods are still in the doldrums and fashion sales are in dire straits - down 1.1% despite the fine spring weather, which would normally help sales of new spring and summer ranges.

Marks & Spencer reported better-than-expected sales figures, but they were still well down on last year and chief executive Sir Stuart Rose said: "It has not got worse, but it hasn't got any better."Real green shoots would not appear, he said, until house prices stopped falling and unemployment stopped rising.Green shoot rating 2 out of 5

Commercial property

The market is showing signs of life. Last month Santander, the giant Spanish bank that owns Abbey, Alliance & Leicester and Bradford & Bingley, bought the Abbey headquarters in London for £115m. The yield was 7.25%. Santander was able to buy the building as a currency play: it can benefit from rising values for buildings on long leases, and if the pound strengthens, then it will be on a double winner.

A good sign?Buildings in good locations on long leases may now be seeing increased demand, but the same cannot be said for retail properties, buildings in so-called "fringe locations" and development sites.Green shoot rating 3 out of 5

The weak pound

Colleges and universities are seeing strong interest from overseas students who pay large fees. The exchange rate is, in effect, giving European and US students a free final year on a three-year course.

Central London retail is being supported by overseas money for the same reason. Tourists are flocking to Selfridges, and Bond Street in Mayfair is in effect the world's biggest duty-free shopping centre because it is easy for wealthy foreigners to claim back VAT from UK Customs & Excise.

There are also now signs that weak sterling is helping to boost orders for British manufacturers. The recent manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose last month to its highest level in six months, and has now been up for three of the last four months.

A good sign?The PMI now stands at 39.1, up from 34.9 in February, but those levels are still very bad. Any number less than 50 equates to almost double-digit declines in industrial production.Green shoot rating 3 out of 5

Takeovers

Mergers and acquisitions have been all but non-existent since the credit crunch took hold, but figures from the Zephyr database, which tracks such activity, shows the value of deals in the first three months of this year up 40% on 2008 levels to £214bn.

A good sign?This should not be considered a shoot of any hue. The huge increase in value was a result of the government's bailout of Lloyds and RBS - the two biggest deals in the quarter. The third biggest was the HSBC rights issue - hardly a reason for optimism - and the value of private equity deals in the quarter was down 75% year on year.Green shoot rating 3 out of 5

10 ways we'll know the worst is over

The economic indicators don't seem to give a clear idea of how things are going, but watch out for these sure-fire signs that confidence is returning: