NFL 2011 Predictions and the Return of QB Tiers

EDIT on September 8, 2011: I originally had Indy going 10-6 but that was before we found out that Peyton Manning’s neck issues may keep him out longer than we all expected. As a consequence, I’ve adjusted many of the predictions below… enjoy.

To follow are my predictions for the 2011-2012 NFL season, which, gloriously, was saved from what could have been an apocryphal Fall. I would have been able to subsist off of college football because I love the sport dearly, but I simply wouldn’t have enjoyed myself as much without the sweet, sweet drip that is the NFL Redzone Channel.

I come up with these predictions by simply looking at each week and picking a winner thereby giving me an accurate reading of how I think the season will play out. After going through the season, I decided to look up the win totals and odds to win the Super Bowl and I’ve put those numbers beside my predicted records. [Super Bowl odds] .

As for the Super Bowl odds, the only single-digit-odds team I predicted would not make the playoffs is Atlanta at 9-1.

Also, I picked two teams (Tampa Bay and St. Louis) with 50-1 odds to make the playoffs. But one of those teams happened to be St. Louis and someone has to come out of the NFC West and the team with the best odds—San Francisco—is a 40-1 bet.

As always, I’m bullish on Green Bay (I’ve predicted them to win the last two Super Bowls), Baltimore (I predicted them to be in the Super Bowl last year), and New Orleans (in their Super Bowl year, I predicted that they’d go 14-2). But a few of these teams surprised me, for instance. I predict huge things out of Philadelphia since I have them winning the Super Bowl. I’m amazed that the line is set for them at only 9.5, shouldn’t they easily get to 11 wins? Also, Vegas and I are not seeing eye-to-eye on Tampa Bay or Oakland. I know that Tampa is facing a tougher schedule this year as opposed to last, but I view their 10-win 2010 season as a sign of things to come and not as an aberration. This is a good team with an outstanding QB. Of course, last year I predicted that they’d win 3 games, but that’s only because I listened to Peter King…okay, I didn’t believe either, but now that I’ve got a full dosage of Josh Freeman, I’m on board. They will battle for a playoff spot all year long. And yes, I would take Josh Freeman over Matt Ryan, without hesitation.

As for Oakland, I like what they’re doing down there even if they don’t have Nnamdi any longer. Call it a hunch, but I just think they’re just as good as San Diego and far better than Kansas City or Denver (especially Denver…). Also, I believe in Jason Campbell and feel like the guy has never gotten fair shake in his entire football career. He’s a talented guy who has not had a great deal of stability in the NFL in terms of coaches. If you don’t think that could mess with a QB, you’re crazy. He’s still young-ish (he turns 30 on New Year’s Eve). I believe that he’s redeemable in the right situation and now that he has Al Saunders as his offensive coordinator again (a guy who will have coached him for three non-consecutive years) he may be okay.

As for the Unders, I am at a loss as to what the oddsmakers see in Cincinnati, Jacksonville, Miami, and Buffalo. What am I missing? Cincy is not only going to be bad, but insanely bad. I love Andy Dalton, but the guy is going to get killed. I’m so bummed out that the guy went there because I think he’s a very good QB who is in a no-win situation. I would have much rather seen him San Francisco, New Orleans, or even Philly… but Cincy? I don’t trust Jacksonville at all and that’s a team that I’ve really liked in the past. I don’t trust David Garrard and I trust Blaine Gabbert less [EDIT 9/8/11: and now that the team just cut Garrard w/o any warning the team will be w/o its proven, although shaky, QB, and the team will not trust its coach AT ALL because he blindsided the de facto team leader. Bad form] . MJD can only do so much, and he’s also injured. I don’t feel the Jags. At all. I am embarrassed to say that I once predicted great things for Chad Henne when he was at Michigan. He had big, big, big game experience and played as a freshman, I just thought that he’d be ready to roll when he got into the league, but it turns out that he’s having trouble being good. A buddy of mine thought I was foolish for thinking he’d be worth anything in the NFL (he watched many Michigan games over the years) and he’s right. But I’m foolish for more reasons that my Henne premonitions; many can attest to that. As for the Bills, sorry, I just don’t see it.

You will also notice that I am extremely bearish on the Seahawks this year and that is due to several factors. First, this truly does appear to be a rebuilding year, as evidenced by the lack of conviction to get a top-flight QB (but the curious decision to sign Sidney Rice, who is good, and young, they’re clearly thinking long-term with him). Second, their out-of-division schedule is brutal (at Pittsburgh, Atlanta, at New York Giants, at Cleveland, Cincinnati, at Dallas, Baltimore, Washington, Philadelphia, at Chicago… are they really better than any of those teams? Maybe Cleveland, Cincy, and Washington…? Maybe.). Third, their division may be weak but they have, arguably, the worst QB situation. Is Alex Smith good? No. He’s not and we don’t know about Colin Kaepernick as an NFL QB yet. I like Sam Bradford a great deal, despite this article that Pro Football Reference wrote. I don’t love Kevin Kolb (and certainly not at the price it cost Arizona; also, you see what Vegas thinks of him 5.5 wins? Ouch.), but he, and everyone else in the NFC West is certainly better than Tarvaris Jackson (or as my buddy Josh called him over the weekend, “Tarvin.” I told him his name is Tarvaris and he said, “He’ll be Tarvin until he plays better.” I don’t know what that means, but I like it.) & Charlie Whitehurst.

Continuing with the prediction thread, here is what I project for the postseason:

* I switched this… I initially had Philly winning the Super Bowl, but I’ve decided to ride Green Bay for a third year. I just love their team.

Of the 12 playoff participants last year, eight return. Half of the NFC field returns—Philadelphia, Green Bay, and New Orleans—half will be at home—Chicago, Atlanta, and Seattle. The new teams from the NFC who join the playoffs this year are: St. Louis, Tampa Bay, and Dallas. In the AFC four of the six return. San Diego and Houston are the newcomers while Kansas City and Indianapolis are left wanting.

Going into this process, I thought that it might be possible for Detroit and San Francisco to make it into the playoffs, but I thought better of it. I think that Detroit has all the makings of a special club, but I just cannot trust Matt Stafford to stay healthy, not to mention play well from having such a long layoff. As for San Francisco, they have quite a bit of talent and I believe in Jim Harbaugh, but I just think that they have too much stacked against them with the new system, new coaching staff, the lockout, and the weakness that they have at QB. They are a year away, possibly two. Believe it or not, I was contemplating putting both St. Louis AND San Francisco in the playoffs…

As for the AFC, I was thisclose to putting Oakland in the playoffs. Yes, they are a bit of a joke, but they are tough and have playmakers and I’m giving them a 10-6 record, it’s just that the elite teams in the AFC are fairly entrenched and getting better. I just don’t see too many teams capable of toppling those squads and their outstanding QBs.

Speaking of QBs, and that’s a necessity whenever speaking about the NFL, I’ve decided to slot them into tiers again. I’ve determined that there are 10 tiers of QBs and for those teams with an undetermined starter, I’ve lumped them together. I’ve also ranked these QBs within the tiers. For example, I view Aaron Rodgers as the best QB in the league right now, Tom Brady is second, Drew Brees is third, and so on. Here you go:

Tier1 (4): Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning

As strong of a group as there has been in years. Manning may be in jeopardy simply because of his neck injury (and how has he gone this long without that malady? His neck is girrafian).

Tier2 (3): Mike Vick, Ben Roethlisberger, Phillip Rivers

I’m tempted to put Mike Vick in Tier 1, but the only reason I haven’t done so is due to his proclivity to get injured. If I could count on him for 16+, he’d be right there with Manning, but I don’t think that I can. As for Bigface Ben, I love his game, but he’s missing something right now and the sacks that he takes are devastating. He could be a Tier 1 guy too. And so can Phil Rivers, but he’s got to go deep in the playoffs for me to consider his candidacy for Tieronedom.

As I’ve stated previously, I favor Josh Freeman. He’s a player. Big guy, big arm, clear leader, good accuracy, and very young. He’s going to be awesome for years to come. I do like Matt Ryan, but I also think that he gets a little too much praise for a guy who hasn’t accomplished much. He has the physical tools and he’s the clear leader of his team and all that, but I just haven’t seen enough out of him in big moments to warrant a higher placement. But according to my list, he’s a top 10 QB, that’s not bad. Manning has done it but I need to see more out of the guy. Romo hasn’t done it and I think that he can, perhaps even this year, but until he can really put it together and dominate in the playoffs, in Tier 3 he shall remain. I’ve voiced my opinion on Flacco. He’s a phenomenal talent but he’s merely good at this time, not even very good and certainly not great. Schaub is nice and throws the ball all over the place, but I need to see at least a playoff berth out of him before he’s to be considered any higher. Jay Cutler has nearly an unmatched arm and is in danger of becoming (or continuing to be, depending on your perspective) Jeff George. I’m sure he’s misunderstood by many who don’t know him, and hopefully he has taken body language lessons during the lockout. I like his ability, but his affinity for throwing (all caps coming) HORRIBLE interceptions is holding him, and his team, back. He can turn it around and become a crazy good QB at some point, but I just don’t know if it’s really going to happen. Based on his talents, he should be, at a minimum, a Tier 2 QB.

Tier4 (4): Sam Bradford, Mark Sanchez, Matt Stafford

This is the Young Guns with Promise tier. Bradford is wildly talented and will continue to get better as will his team (they are doing a nice job in the Lou). Mark Sanchez seems to have all of the tools, but he’s not accurate at all. I’m wondering if that’s just him or if he’s being asked to do things that he’s not good at… we’ll see. I have hope for him to be outstanding. As for Stafford, he is just as good as Jay Cutler from gun perspective. I love his ability, but if he can’t stay on the field, what’s he worth? The face of your franchise needs to wear a helmet, not a ballcap.

Tier5 (3): Matt Cassel, Kevin Kolb, Ryan Fitzpatrick

Here we have three QBs with strikingly similar games (and checkbooks, minus Fitzpatrick). Cassel is the more accomplished of the three and has led his team to a playoff game (where they were demolished) while Kolb has had the chance to hold a clipboard for two QBs whose games are nothing like his own. As for Fitzpatrick, he’s exactly the same as these two guys as well, but just isn’t paid as much. I don’t consider these guys to be elite-level QBs and I also don’t see them getting there. What you see is what you get with them. They’re not awesome and they’re not terrible. They’re middle-of-the-road QBs, which means they sit here in the middle on Tier5.

Tier6 (1): Donovan McNabb

It’s fitting that McNabb sits here, alone, on Tier6 because the guy has been abandoned by nearly everyone. Andy Reid no longer needed him, Mike Shanahan clearly couldn’t stand him, now he’s off to Minnesota where no one (including me) seems to believe that he’ll be successful (read: take them to the playoffs). He’s always been a fairly dichotomistic guy. He was good enough in Philly to lead them to tons of wins and to the Super Bowl once, but he also was not quite good enough to win big on the big stage. At this stage in his career, I’m not sure what he has left. He almost—as Adam Carolla has made popular—does more harm than good. I’ve said this before, but I’ll repeat it here, I think the ceiling for Jake Locker is Donovan McNabb. A guy who tantalizes with his athletic gifts, his size, strength, arm, leadership, and likeability, but who will ultimately let you down and disappoint you. Also, it would have been unbelievable if Locker ended up in Washington and McNabb somehow stayed there because while McNabb represents Locker’s ceiling, I think that Rex Grossman represents Locker’s basement.

Tier7 (4): Jason Campbell, Matt Hasselbeck, Kyle Orton, Colt McCoy

Tier7 has three guys who, to paraphrase Denny Green, “are who we think they are” at this point in their careers, and one guy who we’re not quite sure about yet. I will always be a fan of Matt Hasselbeck for the many reasons I’ve detailed in the past. I like Jason Campbell as stated above, and Kyle Orton is a so-so QB who is quite limited, but who has also carved out a nice, long career for himself as s starter and who could play like 17 years in the NFL as a backup if he wanted to, sort of like Damon Huard or Billy Volek. As for McCoy, I didn’t like him initially coming out of Texas, but then I came around a bit on him, especially as a later-round pick. I doubted his abilities when he was coming out of Texas and while those doubts have subsided somewhat, I am not convinced that he can be a legitimate starting QB in the league. He has dealt with some issues (not being able to throw in the national title game is a huge one) but he’s also seemed a bit too coddled (not unlike most players coming out of Texas). Also, when I saw his mic’d up session on NFL Films last season when he got the holy hell beaten out of him by Pittsburgh (James Harrison specifically, surprise, I know). I could see that he’s tough, but I could also see that he’s very, very, very sensitive. I swear I almost heard him crying when he was getting hit (I can’t blame him for that) and when he was talking to Jake Delhomme on the sideline. (picture his lip quivering and head downcast and you’ve got it). I don’t know if he can be the guy from a mental standpoint or a physical one, but he’s the best option thus far in Cleveland and he’s better than more a few guys in this league. I don’t know what his ceiling is, but for those who think he’s the second coming of Drew Brees, I think it’s best for you to just settle on down.

Tier8 is a based wholly on these QBs’ situations. Cam Newton could leapfrog five tiers in two years (I’m not so sure that Clausen can). Andy Dalton is in trouble because of the team he’s on. Blaine Gabbert is a physical specimen (not unlike Newton) but I need to see him play more to get a good read on him. But as it sits right now, these guys are not better than anyone above them. That includes Garrard who used to be decent but who now is not so.

Tier9 (2): John Beck/Rex Grossman, Chad Henne

Beck falls to this Tier simply by virtue of him having to compete with Rex Grossman, which should tell you what I think of Grossman. Henne, as I explained above, is a major disappointment for me based on what I expected from him out of Michigan. I wonder if he went to Baltimore instead of Joe Flacco if their careers would be any different. He is still redeemable because he’s young, but at present, he’s not good.

Tier10 (2): Alex Smith, Tarvaris Jackson/Charlie Whitehurst

And here is where we find our brothers in NFC West arms. Alex Smith fooled me last year and I predicted a huge season out of San Francisco. Looking back, I was foolish to think that Mike Singletary had any idea what he was doing and that Alex Smith had any business being a starting QB in this league. I will not be fooled this year, even if Jim Harbaugh is calling the shots. As for the Brothers Seahawk… I haven’t seen enough out of Tarvaris Jackson to know if he’s any better than the weak link of a good offense in Minnesota in 2008. As for Whitehurst, I’ve made my feelings known about him in the past, and they haven’t changed, even if he “looked good” against San Diego in their first preseason game.

So, regardless of whether or not you agree with my predictions (I’m as surprised as you, Philly, really?) at least we get to have a full NFL season and we can see if I’m right or wrong.