Much has transpired in the pre-season (& in camps), including signings, holdouts, acquisitions, injuries & basically all the things that are supposed to happen to turn each quest into a drunken three legged race on stilts... Here is link to the original post (which I published just a few days after the strike was settled)...

A month ago, I had slotted in the Dallas Cowboys here, but that was before the Eagles acquired Nnamdi Asamogha, who is capable of shutting down half of the field for the 6 games that the Eagles will play against the Cowboys, Redskins, & Giants... Add in the fact that the Giants have lost 3 key CB's to season ending injuries, & you pretty much have a situation where everyone in this division will be playing 'catch-up'. There ought to be 2-3 weeks that Michael Vick can singlehandedly win you a victory in your FANTASY league, but that means N-O-T-H-I-N-G for the Eagles & probably doesn't help the Eagles get any nearer to the Super Bowl... It probably, though, gets them to an 11-5 season (& maybe a #3 seed in the NFC)...

NFC SOUTH

New Orleans Saints (13-3); #2 seed

The Saints are going to be my pick to eventually make it to Indianapolis, but that doesn't mean the road is going to be easy... Starting in Week 1 where they have to travel to Green Bay (& stand there & watch as the rabid fans have a Super Bowl winning party right in their face)... The Saints probably feel they were ONE STUPID PLAY from repeating as champs last year... The play was the Marshawn Lynch incredible touchdown run in Seattle where he broke more tackles than CV breaks dishes while listening to a speech delivery from the Teleprompter in Chief... If the Saints won that game (which they had in their grasp at one point), they would have likely knocked off the Bears the following week, which means the NFC Championship would have been played in the Superdome... Don't think they haven't replayed that a million times in their mind this past offseason... Week 1 is where it all starts... It's basically going to be a dress rehearsal... The WINNER of the Saints-Packers game in Lambeau is likely to end up hosting the NFC Championship game... Get your popcorn... What ought to also be interesting is that CV is going to predict that the two NFC wildcard spots come out of this same division... (#2 seed NFC)

NFC NORTH

Green Bay Packers (13-3); #1 seed

Probably the only scary thing the Packers face are blows to Aaron Rodgers head... 3 concussions in 2 years starts putting you in 'Steve Young-ville'... Even if that happens, Matt Flynn is a capable back-up & they even have Graham Harrell coming along fairly well... The 'Flynn' story is interesting because he's farther along, but he's also in the final year of his contract... The Packers may have to part ways with him or risk getting nothing (picks) in return... On paper, the only team in the NFC that can match-up with the Packers are the Saints... ON PAPER (he said)... (#1 seed, NFC)

NFC WEST

St. Louis Rams (8-8); #4 seed

The only reason I put (8-8) instead of (9-7) is because this division plays the AFC North (home of the Steelers & Ravens)... Now since I said that, the Rams will beat the Ravens & go (9-7)... You can bet on it...

I've changed the pick in this division (previously had the 'Cardinals' in this spot), just based on some voodoo... I'm a big believer in CYCLES... History repeating itself... Karma & all that... This year, the NFL "kicks-off" the season on the 10th anniversary of 9/11 (actually - the season starts 9/8 with a Thursday Night game of Saints vs. Packers - which as I've stated, is an OMEN of itself)... Notwithstnding...

I think you have to go BACK in time then to recall the NFL 10 years ago... The team to beat was the St. Louis Rams "The Greatest Show on Turf"... Oddly, the team to BEAT the heavily favored Rams in the next SuperBowl after 9/11 were Tom Brady & the New England Patriots (who, CV is going to project going 'all the way' here too)...

In any case, I'm going to predict a bunch of the same actors returning to the stage here... Also, quite oddly (or not)... The NFL has scheduled a game between the New York Giants & Washington Redskins for Sunday 9/11... It's not lost on this author, that Washington DC was rocked by an earthquake a few days ago, that actually cracked the capstone of the Washington Monument, & at present, there's a hurricane in the Atlantic that's barreling it's way towards New York...

Oh, by the way, the quake that rocked Washington... Obama's science advisors (czars) inform us that it happened along the "Bush Fault" line...

NFC WILDCARDS

Atlanta Falcons (10-6) #5 seed

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-6) #6 seed

The #6 seed travels to play the #3 seed (which would make the Bucs travel to Philadelphia)... This fits into my 'karma' theme... Individuals & teams have to face past demons (whether they be EXACT or just rhyme)... There IS history here... When the Buccaneers won the Superbowl after the 2002 season, the road went right through Philadelphia... Philly's QB was Donovan McNabb (probably the most promising of a handful of African American QB's in the NFL at the time)... Of course, now in Philly you have the media crawling all over Mike Vick (who, rather unceremoniously 'replaced' McNabb... well when details are eventually forgotten, that's how it will be remembered anyway... So the media wants it's reformed black superstar (which it either 'thinks' it has in Vick, OR, they're just setting him up for a fall later on)... But NOBODY talks about the Buccaneers talented young African American QB Josh Freeman (who by CV's accounts - is more talented than Vick)... As always with the media... "If it bleeds, it leads"

In any case, there are even deeper roots to the whole 'potential' story... One would be that the only African American QB to ever win a SuperBowl was Doug Williams, who, while he won the Superbowl with the Washington Redskins, was known mostly for his many years as the QB for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers...

Anyway, we'll see what happens... But I like the Buccaneers moving on (over the Eagles), & the Rams re-kindle the fire from 10 years ago (the 9/11 era)... The Greatest Show on Turf... & knock off the Falcons...

NFC DIVISIONAL

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (#6) at Green Bay Packers (#1)

St. Louis Rams (#4) at New Orleans Saints (#2)

The BUC stops (literally) in Lambeau Field... & the Saints make short work of the Rams in the Louisiana Superdome (where - ironically - "The Greatest Show on Turf" Rams team met their waterloo vs. the New England Patriots in the first Superbowl post 9/11)... Is anything "rhyming" for anyone yet?

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP

New Orleans Saints vs. Green Bay Packers

This probably should have been 'last years' NFC Championship but the date was postponed due to Marshawn Lynch's dog eating Drew Brees' lunch... The main thing here will be whether this game will be in Lambeau Field or the Superdome... Last year it would have been in the Superdome, & if the Saints can't take care of business in week 1 of the NFL season, then they deserve to be forced to prove themselves on the frozen tundra... Where I think, they will, in fact, prevail...

Remember the last time the Packers 'failed' to reach the Superbowl by blowing a championship game on their home turf? Yup, that's right, it was for the honor of going to meet the undefeated Patriots...

AFC EASTNew England Patriots (15-1); #1 seed

Don't even bother to question me on this... The Patriots are going to be all but unbeatable this year... They'll lose one game (probably to the Jets)... The AFC road to the Superbowl will lead right through Foxboro... The Patriots mainly needed a pass rush & run stoppage the last two years (& they still won 14 games last year)... Unless you're the Baltimore Ravens or the New York Jets, you can't beat them in Foxboro... & they're going to have some 'mojo' on their side to boot (with the passing of Robert Kraft's wife & this whole 10 year anniversary of 9/11 thing)... Remember, the flights of the jets that struck the WTC towers originated in Boston...

It's all too weird...

AFC SOUTHIndianapolis Colts (10-6); #3 seed

Last time Peyton Manning started the season slowly (as is the case this year), the Colts went 10-6 & barely made the playoffs... I'm predicting the same here... I'm VERY tempted to slot in the Houston Texans here (especially since week 1 features the Colts vs. Texans - where Houston will be fully healthy & the Colts still trying to find footing)... I think Houston will get off to the good start, but classicly fold by losing some head scratching games in mid season...

More 9/11 irony... In the last Superbowl BEFORE 9/11... The Baltimore Ravens defeated the NEW YORK GIANTS... The Giants were quarterbacked by... drumroll... Kerry Collins (who may end up being called into service in week one here for the Colts)...

Somehow... I think the Colts make it thru... Only to later face the Steelers in the playoffs so that there can be another one of those Jerome Bettis/Mike Vanerjaght laugh fests...

AFC NORTH

Baltimore Ravens (11-5); #2 seed

The Ravens aren't immune to having to deal with their own karma... Joe Flacco has NEVER beat Ben Rothleisberger in a head 2 head match-up (0-6)... The Ravens have beat the Steelers twice in the Flacco era, but both times were when Big Ben was out of the lineup...

Again... WEEK 1 of the NFL season will probably tell the story of who wins this division & who ends up going on the road as a wildcard team... I'm going to say the Ravens finally "do it"... Part of that is just the mojo that the 1st week of the season (& thus the Ravens - Steelers game) will be played on 9/11, the 10 year anniversary... The Ravens were the last team to win the SuperBowl before 9/11...

AFC WEST

San Diego Chargers (9-7); #4 seed

Somebody has to win this division & I'm guessing that that team will NOT be named the "Chiefs", "Raiders", or "Broncos"... The Broncos are fully in re-build (with a new coach - John Fox)... The Raiders made a step forward last year, but have fallen back to their old ways by picking up Terelle Pryor (hoping he'll become the next, WHAT? Jamarcus Russell - who ate himself out of the league - on "skittles", no less)... The Chiefs had a creampuff schedule last year (which is how they managed to win 10 games)... With Charlie Weis gone to Gainesville, they'll be lucky to finish the season (8-8)...

So the Chargers win by default... I don't have much else to say about it (because they'll probably be a "one & done" in the playoffs)...

AFC WILDCARDS

New York Jets (11-5) #5 seed (on tiebreaker)

Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5) #6 seed

I just put it that way so as to ASSURE that history repeats itself... #5 seed would have to travel to San Diego, whilst #6 seed goes to Indy... If somehow, the Chargers end up with a better record than the Colts (which could happen), I'll swap these #5 & #6 around (in a way that it's the same two teams traveling to the same locations)...

The Chargers have a history of losing home playoff games to the Jets... Plus, the Colts (in Peyton Manning injury seasons), face the Steelers in the playoffs (& all hilarity ensues)...

AFC DIVISIONAL

Pittsburgh Steelers (#5) at Baltimore Ravens (#2)

New York Jets (#6) at New England Patriots (#1)

I suppose I'm going to have to retrofit my 'seedings' to make this a reality... It would mean the Chargers would have to be the #3 seed & the Colts the #4 seed (which would still mean the Jets play the Chargers; but as the #6 seed, while the Steelers still play the Colts as #5 seed)...

So... CORRECTION to above... Chargers final record goes to (10-6) & they get the higher seeding on a tie-breaker... There - fixed it...

Here you'd have all your karmic destinies playing out... The ONLY two teams which have managed to win playoff games in FOXBORO... In like... EVER... Have been the Jets & Ravens (which the Patriots would have to face in a row)... Meanwhile... Flacco would have to GET OVER the 'Big Ben' curse (& ironically - even if the Colts BEAT the Steelers the week before - the Ravens have another beast to slay - that of NEVER having beat the Colts [who were from Baltimore] in a playoff game)...

Don't you love this stuff? It's called "Slay all your demons before the Mayan calendar runs out in 2012".

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots

I just don't see how anybody is going to stop the Patriots... Here you have the winners of the last SuperBowl prior to 9/11 vs. the first winners after... It's about as simple as it gets...

SUPERBOWL XLVI

(Indianapolis, Indiana - February 5, 2012)

New Orleans Saints (NFC) vs. New England Patriots (AFC)

Everything old is NEW again (as in - 'New' Orleans & 'New' England) at the 'page turning' ceremony of the conclusion in the year of the end of the MAYAN calendar... Want more 'spookiness'?... The Patriots modern era dynasty basically got started in the first Super Bowl after 9/11 (which, as I've said before, is the day that the 2011 [TWO - Oh! - ELEVEN] gets underway)... The Patriots won that Super Bowl in the Louisiana Superdome (home of the New Orleans Saints)... Now, the SAINTS won the Super Bowl TWO years ago... This Super Bowl is being played in Indianapolis (home of the Indianapolis Colts - the team that the New Orleans Saints defeated in that Superbowl...

The next Super Bowl is number XLVI (number 46; 4+6=10; as in - 10 year anniversary of 9/11)... The quarterback for the New Orleans Saints, Drew Brees, wears jersey number "9"... The quarterback for the Patriots, Tom Brady, wears jersey number "12"... Super Bowl XLVI will be played in February 2012 (2/12)...

Oh... I before CV leaves you all (to get back to burying your noses in S&P charts)... Remember something CV casually mentioned above... Remember what I said about 2012 & the MAYAN calendar?

The New England Patriots might have a certain 'mojo' going this year... The passing of owner Bob Kraft's wife (only a month ago)...

VIXBullish long day (tested but didn't close gap). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Failing its 0.0% retrace (45.40). Tested and held its 50.0% minor retrace. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 25.25). Escaped the "extreme fear" zone.

GOLDHammer day (unfortunately also bullish thrusting). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing its 61.8% minor retrace (1781.50). Still above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1891.90). Must have the precious.

GOLDBearish long day (confirmed bearish engulfing). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 61.8% minor retrace (1781.50). Still above all SMA's. Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 1891.90). Must have the precious.

HYG/LQDBullish short day. Tested and held SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of its 0.0% retrace (0.7427). Tested and held its 61.8% minor retrace (0.7682). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.7910).

USDJPYBullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still below all SMA's. Tested and held its 38.2% retrace (76.561). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 77.03).

Even though the Shanghai Gold Exchange hiked margins gold is still trying to make a new weekly high (for now). Currently the weekly chart is forming an evening star (reversal). It's still above all SMA's. It's well above (6.27%) the weekly 3LB mid. It appears even margin hikes have half lives.

BAC has fallen and it can't get up. It's below its 61.8% retrace (7.83) and testing its 38.2% minor retrace (6.06). It's below all SMA's. The gap on the weekly chart is going to provide major resistance. It may need to send out the bat signal (JPM) soon.

10YR YIELDHammer day (failed to close gap). Failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held its 0.0% retrace (20.92). Still below the upper trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 21.82).

Disclosure/Warning

This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind.The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind.The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed.The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.

Fictional Character Quote of the Day:

I guess it comes down to a simple choice. Get busy living or get busy dying.

- Andy Dufresne

"The Shawshank Redemption"

About this Blog

This Blog's primary focus is on trading based upon technical analysis. It is run by "AmenRa" and "AndyT," quasi-anonymous traders who employ technical analysis to assess market conditions and trading opportunities. AmenRa utilizes 3LB techniques, Moving Averages and Fibonacci sequences. AndyT's analysis relies primarily on "Wave Theory" and Fibonacci sequences. The Comments Section is uncensored and open to the public. Please try and adhere to the "Blogger Policy."