tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28360876.comments2018-02-01T23:53:48.749-05:00MFI DiaryMarsh_Gerdahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01375422931807610092noreply@blogger.comBlogger1564125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28360876.post-54713389997902267422018-02-01T23:53:48.749-05:002018-02-01T23:53:48.749-05:00I&#39;m a new reader, who read Joel Greenblatt&#39...I&#39;m a new reader, who read Joel Greenblatt&#39;s book a few months ago and have started employing his strategy. However, I have a question that I can&#39;t find the answer to. I have sold everything and am now traveling through the Philippines. Therefore my income is zero. I have set aside what I need and I&#39;m diversifying the rest. I have learned the long term capital gains tax is zero if your income is under 38,700. I would like to know your thoughts on selling the winners and holding the losers (that are still MF stocks) after one year. Basically increasing the holding period and possibly increasing the position. <br /><br />Thank you,<br />Brian Watkins on the roadhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06326810293571650708noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28360876.post-25566595705846369762018-01-30T06:45:39.449-05:002018-01-30T06:45:39.449-05:00Hi Marsh,
Unfortunately I cannot access your link...Hi Marsh,<br /><br />Unfortunately I cannot access your links. Could you give the URLs of the links instead of making a direct link?<br /><br />Thanks a lot!<br /><br />RalfRalf Kookenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10895146150071394334noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28360876.post-85578908169703811702018-01-29T15:18:50.673-05:002018-01-29T15:18:50.673-05:00we shall see about GME. Emotionally I agree with ...we shall see about GME. Emotionally I agree with you. But in my MFI formula, I take my emotions out and use random number generator and just live with results.Marsh_Gerdahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01375422931807610092noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28360876.post-26942409147904445012018-01-29T07:52:44.269-05:002018-01-29T07:52:44.269-05:00I think $GME in 3/4 MFI tranches is going to hurt ...I think $GME in 3/4 MFI tranches is going to hurt over the next year. I&#39;ve been watching them for some time and they just can&#39;t seem to break $20. They have a great dividend, but I think they&#39;re a cigar butt, held afloat by a good economy and a timely release of new gaming systems.Casey Clarkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09996445844657679784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28360876.post-45338088576809480882018-01-28T19:24:35.760-05:002018-01-28T19:24:35.760-05:00i will try. go back in 10 minutesi will try. go back in 10 minutesMarsh_Gerdahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01375422931807610092noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28360876.post-63050932433256598382018-01-28T18:53:22.086-05:002018-01-28T18:53:22.086-05:00In the Guide To New Readers under Useful Post List...In the Guide To New Readers under Useful Post List, most of the links are inaccessible. Blogger says I do not have access to view the page. Can this be fixed?tafhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14625593839279732065noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28360876.post-75059736920501100312018-01-25T12:09:52.311-05:002018-01-25T12:09:52.311-05:00could not stand it any more. increased position 5...could not stand it any more. increased position 50% at 8.90Marsh_Gerdahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01375422931807610092noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28360876.post-49306503912456196322018-01-22T08:08:25.501-05:002018-01-22T08:08:25.501-05:00Juno being bought by CELG about 10 minutes after t...Juno being bought by CELG about 10 minutes after this post. They are up 27% in coffee-fueled trading (but pushing a double if you had bought a week ago before rumors started).Marsh_Gerdahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01375422931807610092noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28360876.post-35570097610638696202018-01-11T06:02:00.199-05:002018-01-11T06:02:00.199-05:00First Data announced some holiday retail metrics t...First Data announced some holiday retail metrics that seemed to have boosted some brick-and-mortars. Maybe BKE caught the wave!Casey Clarkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09996445844657679784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28360876.post-83462002651450538152018-01-11T00:01:45.216-05:002018-01-11T00:01:45.216-05:00That is a nice special dividend i must say!!
I t...That is a nice special dividend i must say!! <br /><br />I think its a classic case of Mr Market- he seems to be doing the rounds for me too!! Have a look at KODK today- I bought them in May at $10.65, watched them die to $3, then they announce they have joined the crypto league and boom back up to $10.70!!Shanehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16820520649269771896noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28360876.post-91269638741707528652018-01-08T15:41:06.800-05:002018-01-08T15:41:06.800-05:00I see that Dividend &gt; 2.6% has performed well, ...I see that Dividend &gt; 2.6% has performed well, but do you happen to have any data or even have a sense how Dividend &gt; 0 would have performed? Love the blog - been a long-time follower.Protohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01140282284657513089noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28360876.post-1347542466106080912018-01-06T12:58:01.895-05:002018-01-06T12:58:01.895-05:00Thanks for posting. &#39;Ramble&#39; on all you w...Thanks for posting. &#39;Ramble&#39; on all you want, I&#39;ll keep reading!<br />regards,<br />jjbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03939778385819203444noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28360876.post-47990632958076943632018-01-02T12:04:25.686-05:002018-01-02T12:04:25.686-05:00I have seen the screener. Seems like as good a pl...I have seen the screener. Seems like as good a place as any to start an analysis.Marsh_Gerdahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01375422931807610092noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28360876.post-79970375490971838412018-01-02T11:25:57.716-05:002018-01-02T11:25:57.716-05:00Thank you Marsh for your post. By the way have you...Thank you Marsh for your post. By the way have you seen the Acquirer&#39;s Multiple screener. Do you think it&#39;s good idea to buy stocks from this screener?Dmitriy Voznesenskiyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14596473812315519374noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28360876.post-36413231946780841872017-12-31T10:11:40.866-05:002017-12-31T10:11:40.866-05:00Brad - my condo is in the White Mountains, Jackson...Brad - my condo is in the White Mountains, Jackson. Just gorgeous there - like a cheaper Colorado. I am thinking about going next week. <br /><br />MFI is working for me. I don&#39;t think Greenblatt gamed the system. He had an unbelievable run as a hedge fund manager and doesn&#39;t need our millions. I just think it needs to be tweaked a bit as the universe has a bunch more one hit bio techs (like MNKD) that make the screen.<br /><br />I will check out the Wall Street book. Thanks for offer to sned, but I can grab a copy easily.<br /><br />MMarsh_Gerdahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01375422931807610092noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28360876.post-59828715695859677532017-12-31T08:49:32.788-05:002017-12-31T08:49:32.788-05:00Where in NH is your condo? I grew up in Southern ...Where in NH is your condo? I grew up in Southern NH but am now living in NC. I miss the skiing but thats about it :)<br /><br /><br />Just a cynical thought about MFI if I may. What if there was never really an anomaly there? <br /> What if Greenblatt looked at a rather limited data set, found a model that fit which showed excess returns during that period, published a book and made millions off of us suckers? I am not implying Greenblat did this on purpose, rather, he may have &quot;discovered&quot; something that really was never there to begin with and we all got too excited about it. I always find it suspect when these amazing strategies work great almost every year within the in-sample data and then as soon as we start applying them to out-of sample data you have to ask if its just really bad luck for the past 10+ years or maybe something else is going like bad data analysis to begin with. <br /><br /><br />On a side note, have you read What Works on Wall St? I would be happy to send you my copy if you want to borrow it. I really enjoyed it and some of MFI like strategies were tested and seemed to do well (in-sample). My favorite idea is combing value with momentum where you essentially screen for value stocks but only buy ones going up over the past 6-12 months. This should eliminate some of the really bad stocks that just seem to go down from the start. <br /><br /><br />-Brad<br /><br /> Bradhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01026322838778794994noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28360876.post-42876082142398967162017-12-21T10:43:43.910-05:002017-12-21T10:43:43.910-05:00Very interesting that you went through some old MF...Very interesting that you went through some old MFI stocks from 5 years ago. A bit disheartening that they produced so poor results, but I&#39;m hoping that it is the quality component of MFI that causes these to not perform as you would expect Contrarian value stocks to do.<br /><br />Regarding the last part about holding periods: I just recently wrote a post about the impact of different holding periods on one&#39;s CAGR in quantitative investing. In it, I go through a bunch of studies comparing these when screening using different value ratios. The post is in Swedish, but I can recommend the original articles if you ever want to dig deeper into that topic.<br /><br />applyingvalue.comApplying Valuehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11712019886805823184noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28360876.post-46365805690583167092017-12-21T08:27:17.752-05:002017-12-21T08:27:17.752-05:00I think REITs have a solid place in portfolio. I ...I think REITs have a solid place in portfolio. I have SBRA and MAC. It would not be a terrible idea (in my view) to shift out of preferreds or bonds and into REITs. I am kicking that thought around.Marsh_Gerdahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01375422931807610092noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28360876.post-61772321574383982712017-12-20T21:40:46.328-05:002017-12-20T21:40:46.328-05:00How are you thinking about REITs in 2018? They are...How are you thinking about REITs in 2018? They are bond like but should do well with inflation?Andrew Mhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02104566230927184138noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28360876.post-11047244034134252952017-12-16T22:38:54.844-05:002017-12-16T22:38:54.844-05:00That November tranche magic again.... good picking...That November tranche magic again.... good picking!Shanehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16820520649269771896noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28360876.post-5407026834881564342017-12-12T07:11:09.722-05:002017-12-12T07:11:09.722-05:00Casey _ I will change the way I link to guide for ...Casey _ I will change the way I link to guide for new readers this weekend. In meantime, you should be able to google MFI Diary Guide to New Readers and get a link.<br /><br />MFI Diary: Guide To New ReadersMarsh_Gerdahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01375422931807610092noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28360876.post-52840244465650448542017-12-11T08:26:00.079-05:002017-12-11T08:26:00.079-05:00https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-11...https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-11/a-stalwart-picker-of-value-stocks-joins-the-indexing-crowd<br /><br />Greenblatt turning to index investing?<br /><br />-Alex <br />https://www.buffettindicator.coAlex Garciahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06579074739376686479noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28360876.post-749076215342495972017-12-11T07:28:53.279-05:002017-12-11T07:28:53.279-05:00This is the exact verbiage I get when I click the ...This is the exact verbiage I get when I click the guide to new readers:<br /><br />Your current account (cmclarke90@gmail.com) does not have access to view this page. <br />Click here to logout and change accounts.Casey Clarkehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09996445844657679784noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28360876.post-587541408464629822017-12-11T06:38:39.212-05:002017-12-11T06:38:39.212-05:00Ryger - I will try and fix. in meantime, you coul...Ryger - I will try and fix. in meantime, you could just google MFI Diary Had Enough and likely get to read it.Marsh_Gerdahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01375422931807610092noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28360876.post-22779804459821833752017-12-10T22:39:24.623-05:002017-12-10T22:39:24.623-05:00Your returns for the 12/30 tranche may be a little...Your returns for the 12/30 tranche may be a little better than the overall 18.0% since TGNA spun off CARS.com earlier this year. Or were the spinoff returns wrapped into the TGNA stock to simplify the presentation?<br />regards,<br />jjbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03939778385819203444noreply@blogger.com