How can BJP ride on a NaMo wave?

Hi!

Team CRI have just launched Swarajya! Check it out!

In the aftermath of Gujarat assembly polls, I had written a small article analyzing the results. That was my first and perhaps will be my last attempt at psephological number crunching. But the key conclusion was very interesting. I had argued that Bharatiya Janata Party(BJP) had retained Gujarat due to a massive mobilization of 1st time voters, mainly the urban youth.

I don’t know whether similar conditions exist across the various states of Bharat. But the reception that Modi gets in his speeches across the country (Kerala, Hyderabad, Delhi, Pune etc) do suggest a strong possibility. Based on strictly anecdotal evidence, we can say that

There is broad based support for Modi across the Hindi belt.

Educated classes and urban youth across the nation seem to have an inclination for Modi.

How do the odds stack up?

But, does this support translate into seats for BJP based on its current strategy? Apparently the party is concentrating on approximately 290 seats that it has won at least once before. While this looks good on paper, a similar count for Congress would be nearly 500 seats. Moreover, past history is not very relevant after the latest round of delimitation.

Simultaneously, BJP is trying to woo possible allies such as Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) to cobble up the numbers. But, this strategy is not working since these parties would prefer to do business with BJP only in a post-poll scenario. In summary, BJP is handicapped by 2 factors

The geographical spread of the party is too limited.

The neutral parties would not be ready for a pre-poll alliance because they fear losing the Muslim vote.

The new Mantra- Expand or Perish

The party can overcome these shortcomings only by a bold leap of faith. I am suggesting that BJP has to try to drastically improve its geographical spread as well as vote share across the country. In practical terms, the party has to put up serious candidates even in those constituencies where it has had a marginal presence in the past. In principle, BJP needs to fight every Lok Sabha seat excluding those where it already has a pre-poll alliance partner.

Assuming that a NaMo wave is indeed going to manifest, this strategy will result in dual benefits. The party might discover its hidden strength in constituencies where it was not a serious contestant earlier. This leads to an expansion of the geographical foot print. There might also be cases where BJP might just get a marginal fraction of vote that is not good enough to give it a serious chance at winning. However, other players will be forced to look at the party for a pre-poll alliance if the fraction is good enough to make or break their own fortunes.

Hung Parliament in 2014

While we might want to wish it away, there exists a realistic possibility that 2014 polls might end up being a semi-final of sorts paving the way for a real final battle in 2015/16. In such a case, expansion strategy would once again work for BJP provided it has put up a creditable showing and emerged as the single-largest party.

In “new” seats where BJP has managed a creditable performance and still fallen short of a win, the voters can be expected to decisively shift their vote in a subsequent election to BJP – a vote for stability. Also, allies will find it far easier to strike deals with the party if BJP can demonstrate a significant “transferable” vote in their own bastions.

Time for Boldness

The BJP has to make decisive and bold moves if it has to seize this moment and capitalize on the strong anti-Congress and pro-NaMo sentiment across the nation. It has to start looking for possible candidates for a BJP ticket in every “new” constituency NOW. This might also be the time to bring in fresh blood laterally with unconventional choices and also import leaders with a strong local base from other parties.

Very good strategy.Many within BJP and BJP’s supporters could be thinking along these lines.It is ok to focus on those 290 odd seats but nothing wrong in adding 100 more for serious campaigning. Eg Bengalee Hindus [including Bhadraloks] could be feeling terrible at Mamatadi’s wooing of Muslim votes.Left and Congress too are doing same.What if BJP campaigns, Telling Bengalee Hindus that they have seen it all,why not vote for a party that was founded by a Bengalee Nationalist,late Shyama Prasad Mukherjee? Same will be the case in Assam,Odisha, AP,TN and few urban seats in Kerala.It appears BJP may have to devise several strategies for different geographies,considering Modi’s popularity.

baptys

NICE ARTICLE MR VENKATESH, india must see BJP AS ALL INDIA PARTY. now they do due to tv, lok sabha debates,media & most importantly shri modiji NAMO.
ITS ESSENTIAL BJP HAS ITS PRESENCE IN ABOUT 500 SEATS ,IF NOT MORE.THE VISIBILITY IS VERY IMPORTANT.may be young candidates with local presnece could be tried,& so too women candidates.
most importantly, with CONGRESS DEFINITELY ON A SEVERE DOWNWARD CURVE, BJP IS THE ONLY NATIONAL PARTY.this together with the charisma of modiji & highlighting the plight of india in the LAST 10 YRS UNDER CONGRESS,cleverly brought out giving national picture & local issues will fetch dividends for bjp.
i strongly feel BJP SHLD HIGHLIGHT NEED FOR CORRUPTION FREE STIRTA GOVT HEADED BY INCORRUPTIBLE LEADER LIKE SHRI MODIJI AS P.M IS THE ONLY SOLUTION FOR INDIA.
bjp shld also not flinch in wooing all minorities, with vikas as the main theme. i personally feel if at ground zero level, every booth level work is covered by & ALL ALLIED ORGANISATIONS, THIS ELECTION WILL PAY RICH DIVIDENDS FOR BJP& INDIAS YOUTH & ACHIEVING 275 PLUS BY BJP, SHLD BE QUITE POSSIBLE. THANK YOU.

kpp1991

On paper it all seems fine. Other than getting to the electorate, what I would presume BJP should do first is to bring about its house in order and refrain from unwarranted public display of discord. Guys like L.K. Advani and his cluster of old guards must either keep out of their public spat against Narendra Modi and adhere to his style of leadership or gracefully retire from active politics and assist in positive evolution of BJP. If not, however much Narendra Modi might sweat it out for the betterment of both the Party and the Nation, the electorate will not tolerate a unit that may be fractionally better than the Congress but not largely different from it. Internal unity of BJP is the predominant factor for them achieving anything close to 290 under the leadership of Narendra Modi and this unity has to be substantially exposed to the public electorate to mobilize their confidence in BJP’s favor. He is a crowd puller anywhere in India and if anywhere close to 30% of that crowd translates into votes for him, especially from the South, that itself would bring substantial gains to BJP and severe dents into the other political party vote bank.

However, much caution on the part of Narendra Modi must be adhered for the enemies out there are incessant in their pursuit to somehow put him behind bars for a day at least so that the SC ruling can be imposed thereby barring him from elections. There might be enemies from within too who would just want that for narcissistic ambitions.

Amruta Prakriya

very good analysis

Anuz Kum

I suggest even bolder strategy.

BJP must come out clearly on the 5 or 6 basic issues which shake the total system out of slumber and which are not against the its core constituency.

The current strategy of ‘also ran’ and ‘we are with everyone’ which is read as ‘you are with no one’.

Must make moves earnestly. There is no fun in becoming B Team of Congress.

Another item. There is enough of dead weight with over ambitious motives. It is said that if some one throws 10 stones on 1000 BJP leaders, 5 stones hit PM hopefuls. Thats disgusting and lost battle. Please filter and make Modi to be the leader who can take decision. Currently Party President has to consult the Pitamah and 10 others before he allows Modi.

This way battle can not be won.

RVenkatanarayanan

The approach suggested by Venkatesh is bold and it deserves serious consideration by the BJP: New blood, youth and honest leaders sidelined in other parties. Serious but implementable policies, programs and projects in the Election manifesto will attract both good candidates and new votes. Unless the traditional support base of BJP is expanded it is going to find it very tough to get political power for the third time.
R.Venkatanarayanan

maidros

It is a little too late for that. Sure, the BJP can fight and probably win a seat or two even in states like Andhra Pradesh and Orissa. It can definitely try to put up a creditable performance in states like Andhra and Orissa this time. But winning seats in Bengal, Kerala and even Tamil Nadu may be a bit too hard, starting now.
Ideally, one needs two elections (state and centre) to actually be able to establish a base of any significance. If the BJP starts today, they can only try to become a significant vote grabber by 2019. One seat wonders, based on capable individual candidates, are probably the best shot for the BJP in Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Bengal.

Subscribe to our mailing list

Like us on Facebook

Categories

Categories

Recent Comments

gk: Are you running some university where you gave yourself '100' level knowledge rating? If you have s…

gk: >>>>>So what? words get added,changed and removed as time goes on You really do not h…

Sekar Devaraj: You have to study more, your knowledge level is "0". Please study and comeback to discuss here.…