"What happens in Vegas"... Will likely end up on this site. Sorry, Las Vegas Chamber.

Wednesday, March 28, 2012

Calling BS on "Newspaper" #NVLeg Prediction, Part II

Yesterday, we took a fresh look at what's going on in a handful of critical Senate races this fall while also calling out a ridiculous election prediction from the local "newspaper". Today, our attention turns to the Assembly as we notice what's been happening since October. And yes, we'll again be noting why the "newspaper" got #NVLeg totally wrong.

So far all of the safe seats identified in October remain safe, so we'll save some time and only look at seats in play and/or likely to change hands. Here we go!

Clark County

AD 2
Las Vegas- Summerlin

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 52%
McCain (R) 47%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 49%
Sharron Angle (R) 46%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 56%
Rory Reid (D) 41%

Race Rating: Safe Republican

This will be the last time AD 2 is featured on this list, as Democrats failed to recruit anyone to run against John Hambrick. He gets a free ride back to Carson City, and Nevada Democrats blow a potential pick-up opportunity.

AD 4
Las Vegas- Northwest

Estimated US-Pres 2008
50% Obama (D)
48% McCain (R)

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
48% Sharron Angle (R)
47% Harry Reid (D)

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
58% Brian Sandoval (R)
39% Rory Reid (D)

Race Rating: Tossup

Originally, it looked like Republicans would have a significant advantage in retaining this seat. However, plenty has changed since we last checked in October. For one, local "tea party" icon Michelle Fiore is the assured Republican nominee here.

Thankfully for Nevada Democrats, they actually have a candidate running here. We'll have to see how serious Ken Evans' campaign is. But really, can any campaign involving Michelle Fiore be all that serious? If it weren't for the more conservative nature and slight GOP registration edge in this district, this would be an easy flip for Democrats. But even as is, Democrats have a better shot than ever before here.

AD 5
Las Vegas/Spring Valley- Peccole Ranch

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 55%
McCain (R) 43%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 52%
Sharron Angle (R) 43%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 52%
Rory Reid (D) 44%

Race Rating: Tossup

Incumbent Democratic Assembly Member Marilyn Dondero Loop remains one of the most endangered incumbents of this cycle simply because of the huge changes made to her district in redistricting. What had been a pretty safe Democratic West Side seat is now a thorny, swingy suburban district that Dondero Loop will most certainly have to work for to win again.

Now, it's just a question of how hard Bill Harrington and Nevada Republicans are willing to work to take this seat away from her.

AD 9
Summerlin South/Enterprise- Summerlin, Rhodes Ranch

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 59%
McCain (R) 39%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 55%
Sharron Angle (R) 40%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 49%
Rory Reid (D) 47%

Race Rating: Leans Democratic

Democrat Andrew Martin ran as an outsider for Assembly in 2008 in a more GOP leaning AD 13. However, he managed to shock most pundits by coming out of nowhere to get 49% against then incumbent Assembly Member Chad Christensen (R-Las Vegas). This time, he has the Assembly Democratic Caucus endorsement in a new Democratic leaning AD 9 comprising the once fast growing and now fast changing Southwest Vegas suburbs. And this time, the odds are much better for Martin to win.

Still, Andrew Martin must first clear the Democratic Primary. (Actually that shouldn't be too hard, since his primary opponent doesn't even have a web site.) Then, he'll be facing either Clayton Hurst or Victoria DeLaGuerra-Seaman in the general election. But again, considering the leftward shift of this district's politics in recent cycles, this shouldn't be too tough of a seat for Democrats to hold this year.

AD 12
Sunrise Manor/East Las Vegas/Henderson- Lake Las Vegas

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 58%
McCain (R) 40%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 54%
Sharron Angle (R) 41%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 49%
Rory Reid (D) 47%

Race Rating: Likely Democratic

Early on, it looked like James Ohrenschall might get a tough fight on his hands in the reconfigured AD 12. And while I still think it's a possibility, it's increasingly looking like a dwindling one. And with even the Assembly Republican Caucus ready to concede this race, this race may soon fall off the radar. Still, we'll keep a close eye on this one for now.

AD 13
Las Vegas- Northwest, Centennial Hills

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 48%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Sharron Angle (R) 48%
Harry Reid (D) 47%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 57%
Rory Reid (D) 39%

Race Rating: Leans Republican

The bad news for Nevada Democrats: This district shifted a bit to the right in redistricting.
The good news for Nevada Democrats: This district is still within reach.

However, Democrats aren't without their own primary drama here. 2010 nominee Lou DeSalvio is running again, but this time he's being challenged in the primary by local activist and small business owner Leisa Moseley. So far it doesn't look to be as acrimonious as the primary situation on the other side, but we'll still have to see how bad their primary gets before determining if this becomes a top Democratic pick-up opportunity.

AD 19
Mesquite/Sunrise Manor/Henderson- Old Henderson

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 54%
McCain (R) 44%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 50%
Sharron Angle (R) 45%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 52%
Rory Reid (D) 43%

Race Rating: Tossup

In 2010, Crescent Hardy was fortunate enough to run in a super safe AD 20 that Republicans never had to think about defending. However in 2012, that's all about to change. The new AD 19 may still contain Hardy's hometown of Mesquite along with Republican friendly turf in Old Henderson, but it also picks up more Democratic friendly precincts around Nellis Air Force Base, resulting in a district with only about a 3% Republican registration edge, as well as a district that both President Obama and Senator Harry Reid won. Incumbent Steven Brooks (D-East Las Vegas) was also originally placed in this district, but he jumped to AD 17 to run in a safer district.

So we'll have to keep an eye on Felipe Rodriguez to see if he can do what no Democrat has done before.

AD 20
Paradise/Henderson: Sunset Park, Green Valley, Whitney Ranch

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 62%
McCain (R) 36%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 59%
John McCain (R) 36%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Rory Reid (D) 51%
Brian Sandoval (R) 45%

Race Rating: Safe Democratic (Pick-up)

So whatever happened to AD 20? It got moved in redistricting from rural Clark County to the urban core of Paradise (aka "The East Side") and the older Green Valley North neighborhoods of Henderson. Without a doubt, this is the Assembly seat most likely to change hands this year. And without a doubt, the most action we'll see here will be in the Democratic Primary.

Nevada State Board of Education member Gloria Bonaventura, Former Assembly Member Ellen Spiegel, and local attorney and community activist Kent Ivey are all running in the Democratic Primary here. And again, whoever wins that primary is virtually assured of winning in the general.

AD 21
Paradise/Henderson- Silverado Ranch, Green Valley

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 57%
McCain (R) 41%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 55%
Sharron Angle (R) 40%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 50%
Rory Reid (D) 46%

Race Rating: Leans Democratic (Pick-up)

With current Assembly Member Mark Sherwood (R-Henderson) stepping down and redistricting radically reshaping this district, AD 21 is also poised to deliver big changes this year. For one, it's dropped Green Valley Ranch to pick up Silverado Ranch. And in doing that, it's shifted from a typically Republican friendly district to a more Democratic leaning district and prime Democratic pick-up opportunity.

The general election should also be pretty competitive, but the recent political trends in Green Valley South and Silverado Ranch give Democrats the early advantage and the chance for another valuable pick-up. Becky Harris may not make it easy, but the resumes of both Andy Eisen and Steve Parke suggest they're up for the challenge.

AD 22
Henderson- Green Valley Ranch, MacDonald Ranch

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 50%
McCain (R) 48%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Sharron Angle (R) 48%
Harry Reid (D) 47%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 57%
Rory Reid (D) 39%

Race Rating: Likely Republican

Current Assembly Member Lynn Stewart (R-Henderson) is getting a radically downsized district in redistricting, but that so far doesn't seem to hurt his reelection prospects. Stewart now has a Democratic opponent in local entrepreneur Randy Spoor, but we'll have to see if the Nevada Democratic Party ever gets serious about playing in this Henderson district before upgrading this race any time soon.

AD 29
Henderson- Green Valley, Old Henderson

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 54%
McCain (R) 44%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 52%
Sharron Angle (R) 43%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 52%
Rory Reid (D) 43%

Race Rating: Tossup

Now this should be fun. Local "Gun Store" and "tea party" celebrity Bob Irwin is back (he ran against John Oceguera in the old AD 16 in 2010), but this time he's moving to Henderson to challenge incumbent Assembly Member April Mastroluca (D-Henderson). Irwin has definitely gained plenty of media attention with his "Gun Store", but Mastroluca also earned her own reputation over the years as an involved parent and education activist. This may very well be a "battle of the heavyweights" that keeps us at the edge of our seats all year.

Certainly, AD 29 tipped to the right in redistricting as it shed some Democratic turf to the new AD 20 while picking up some Republican leaning neighborhoods from the old AD 21. Still, April Mastroluca has earned respect as a good campaigner. And considering her past victories over the more moderate Sean Fellows (2008) and Dan Hill (2010), it won't be easy for known "tea party" flame thrower Bob Irwin to unseat April Mastroluca in a Green Valley based district that both President Obama and Senator Harry Reid still carried.

AD 35
Enterprise- Mountain's Edge, Southern Highlands

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 58%
McCain (R) 40%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 54%
Sharron Angle (R) 41%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 50%
Rory Reid (D) 46%

Race Rating: Leans Democratic (Pick-up)

Here's another prime pick-up opportunity for Nevada Democrats. Assembly Minority Pete Goicoechea (R-Eureka) has been representing this district, but he's moving onto the Senate... While his old Assembly District moves from rural Northern Nevada to Clark County and settles in some Southwest Vegas neighborhoods that may ultimately be more interested in sending a Democrat to Carson City.

Yet again, we have a wide open seat in "The Wild (South)West" attracting plenty of candidates. But ultimately, I suspect Democrats have the early edge here.

AD 37
Las Vegas- Summerlin, Northwest

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 47%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 48%
Sharron Angle (R) 47%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 55%
Rory Reid (D) 41%

Race Rating: Tossup

This may yet prove to be the most painful Legislature race for Nevada Democrats. Marcus Conklin (D-Las Vegas) had expected to become the next Nevada Assembly Speaker. Now, he'll be lucky if he just makes it back to Carson City next year.

Wesley Duncan is an Iraq War veteran and JAG reservist, and already THE top Republican recruit. And now that AD 37 has shifted from a safe Democratic seat to a tossup seat with a slight GOP registration edge that takes in some "Blood Red" territory in Sun City Summerlin, this may well be Nevada Republicans' top pick-up opportunity. And without a doubt, knocking out the Assembly's top Democrat would be an additional badge of honor for Duncan and top Republicans.

Still, Marcus Conklin won't make this easy for Wesley Duncan. While his ties to mining lobbyists and gaming insiders may provide Duncan with prime "dirt" to use against Conklin on the campaign trail, they nonetheless provide Conklin with plenty of needed cash to pummel Duncan and respond to those attacks. Don't be surprised if this ends up as one of the ugliest #NVLeg races on record.

AD 41
Enterprise/Paradise/Henderson- Silverado Ranch, Seven Hills

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 57%
McCain (R) 41%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 54%
Sharron Angle (R) 41%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 50%
Rory Reid (D) 46%

Race Rating: Leans Democratic

Paul Aizley (D-Paradise) is yet another Democratic incumbent faced with the misfortune of a more competitive Assembly District to run in. But unlike most of the other races, the dynamics of AD 41 and the likely Republican nominee give Aizley some hope. Phil Regeski doesn't have any primary competition, but that isn't stopping him from running hard to the "tea party" right and wholly embracing Chuck Muth & his "no tax" pledge.

While the addition of tony, GOP dominant Seven Hills will likely cause Aizley some heartburn while giving Regeski some hope, there may still be enough Democratic votes in Silverado Ranch to offset that. And if Regeski keeps toeing the Muth "tea party" line, nonpartisans may ultimately give long-time district resident and UNLV professor Aizley another look.

Washoe County

AD 25
Reno- West Reno

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 49%
McCain (R) 48%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Sharron Angle (R) 48%
Harry Reid (D) 46%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 63%
Rory Reid (D) 31%

Race Rating: Safe Republican

No one even bothered to challenge Pat Hickey, so this is the last time you'll see this district on this list.

AD 26
Reno/Mount Rose/Incline Village

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 51%
McCain (R) 47%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 47%
Sharron Angle (R) 47%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 62%
Rory Reid (D) 32%

Race Rating: Likely Republican

At least Democrats managed to field a candidate here, "some dude" named Rodney Petzak. Now, we just have to ask if that's enough to really scare Randy Kirner. Since Petzak doesn't even have a web site yet, I have serious doubts. Maybe this is the last time you'll see this district on this list?

AD 31
Sparks- Shadow Mountain, Lemmon Valley

Estimated US-Pres 2008
Obama (D) 53%
McCain (R) 45%

Estimated NV-Sen 2010
Harry Reid (D) 49%
Sharron Angle (R) 46%

Estimated NV-Gov 2010
Brian Sandoval (R) 59%
Rory Reid (D) 35%

Race Rating: Tossup

This is likely the other Assembly race that Nevada Democrats are worrying about the most. Incumbent Richard "Skip" Daly (D-Sparks) had been used to running in a safe district. But now, he has to run in a seat where Republicans have a slight registration edge! And even worse, Nevada Republicans landed a top notch recruit in David Espinosa. Not only does he have a snazzy web site, thanks to his own background in IT, but he's also bringing forward policy proposals (like having e-readers replace traditional textbooks, and "incentive awards" for new technology) that one typically doesn't find on a campaign web site.

But then again, Skip Daly isn't your typical incumbent. He has a long history in Sparks, and he's known as a relentless campaigner. He'll really need those relentless campaign skills now, since the new AD 31 has a slight GOP registration advantage (just over 4%). However if both President Obama and Senator Harry Reid could win this district, perhaps Skip Daly can as well?

This may be another race that goes down to the wire.

---

All in all, it looks like we'll be seeing a whole lot of change in the Assembly next year. For all we know, the Assembly may even get an unexpected new Speaker next year, along with a whole lot of surprising seat flips in both directions. Like yesterday's Senate forecast, I'll rate the ten hottest Assembly races on the basis of most likely to change parties.

If the election were today, I'd stop the flipping at #6. This would mean Espinosa unseats Daly, Duncan unseats Conklin, and Hardy wins reelection, giving Republicans three pick-ups. However, this would also mean the Democrats win the trio of open seats previously held by Republicans, giving Democrats three pick-ups. So funny enough, in the end we get the same 26-16 split we had last session... Just in an odd way that includes interesting pick-ups and painful losses for both parties.