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UBS consumption indicator at its lowest level this year

Zurich / Basel26 Jul 2011, 08:00Media Releases Switzerland

All components of the UBS consumption indicator were down in June.

Having reached a high point for the year in May, the UBS consumption indicator fell significantly by 0.40 points to 1.48 in June. This marks its lowest level thus far this year. All of the sub-indicators contributed to the decline in the UBS consumption indicator. The strong decline in new car registrations (-12% in June after +20% in May, respectively in year-on-year comparison) can be attributed to an exceptionally low number of working days in June, which this year included the Ascension Day and Whitsun holidays. The retail sector also experienced a strong decline in business volume.

The UBS consumption indicator mainly measures domestic consumption: hotel stays by Swiss residents in Switzerland, business activity in the retail sector and domestic credit card transactions are all domestic consumption indicators. The strong Swiss franc, however, will likely lead Swiss residents to buy more products and services outside of Switzerland, for instance by vacationing and shopping abroad rather than in Switzerland. The UBS consumption indicator may therefore underestimate the current momentum of overall private consumption, which includes consumption in both Switzerland and abroad.

The current index level of just under 1.5 implies inflation-adjusted private consumption growth of 1.5% year-on-year. Accordingly, we expect private consumption to accelerate over the course of the year, after first-quarter growth of only 0.6% according to the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO). On a per-capita basis, this actually represents a decline in consumption, since the Swiss population is growing by roughly 1% per year. In our view, the main drivers of consumption are sustained low interest rates, consistently high immigration and rising employment.

Calculation of the UBS Consumption Indicator:

The UBS Consumption Indicator signals private consumption trends in Switzerland with a lead time of about three months of the official figures. At roughly 60%, private consumption is by far the most important component of Swiss GDP. UBS calculates this leading indicator from five consumer-related parameters: new car registrations, business activity in the retail sector, the number of domestic overnight hotel stays by Swiss residents the consumer sentiment index, and credit card transactions made via UBS at points of sale in Switzerland. With the exception of the consumer sentiment index, all of this data is available monthly.