Bob McDonnell

July 21, 2015

-PPP's newest Virginia poll finds that voters in the state narrowly support the Affordable Care Act, 44/42. This really exemplifies how much opinions have shifted on Obamacare- it used to be that when we polled on it in any swing state it would be very unpopular. These numbers show that if anything the ACA will probably be a wash politically in the Presidential race next year and it may end up being a boon to Democrats if the trend of its increasing popularity continues.

Meanwhile Medicaid expansion remains a very popular concept with Virginia voters- 56% support it compared to only 30% who are opposed. That includes 54/32 favor from independents, who pretty well mirror the overall electorate on the issue.

-There is even more overwhelming support from Virginians on another pair of pieces of progressive legislation. 64% in the state think all workers should get a minimum number of paid sick days, with only 19% opposed to that concept. And an equal 64% think borrowers should be able to deduct their student loan payments on their state income taxes, to just 20% against that. On both of those issues there is agreement across party lines- 79% of Democrats, 59% of independents, and 52% of Republicans support paid sick days. And 69% of Democrats, 63% of independents, and 57% of Republicans favor deductions of student loan payments.

-The reaction of Virginians to the legalization of gay marriage in the state is proving to be a pretty resounding 'no big deal.' 73% of voters say it's had either a positive impact on their lives or no impact at all, with only 27% claiming that's actually been a negative thing for them. Even among Republican voters 58% grant that it hasn't had any sort of adverse impact on them.

-In the wake of last month's Charleston shooting Virginians are resoundingly in support of background checks on all gun purchases, and opposed to flying the confederate flag in public places. 86% favor background checks to just 8% who are against them, including 91% support from Democrats, 84% from Republicans, and 81% from independents. In the last month we've also found 86/10 support for them in North Carolina, 85/9 support for them in Michigan, and 90/9 support for them nationally.

Just 35% of Virginians support the flying of the Confederate flag over government buildings, to 51% who are opposed. Those numbers are similar to the 38/48 opposition we found in North Carolina last week. Even in southern states voters don't think that flag should fly anymore. This is an issue though where the Republican base is well out of line with the public at large. In Virginia GOP voters support continuing to fly the flag 60/26 even as both Democrats (16/74) and independents (33/49) are strongly opposed. It was the same thing in North Carolina where Republicans (58/25) backed the flag while Democrats (22/68) and independents (37/47) opposed it. This attitude about the flag may complicate Republican efforts to expand the diversity of their party.

September 26, 2014

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's newest Virginia Senate poll finds a very steady race, with almost no change since the last survey we did there in the spring. Mark Warner leads Ed Gillespie 48/35, compared to a 49/35 advantage when we looked at the race in April.

Warner has a positive approval rating at 49/40. Meanwhile Gillespie is not proving to be a particularly appealing candidate- only 29% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 37% who view him negatively. Warner has a double digit advantage because he is winning over 17% of the Republican vote, while just 3% of Democrats are going for Gillespie. Warner is even slightly ahead with white voters at 44/43 and with seniors by a wider margin at 48/41, both groups that Democrats don't typically perform that well with.

“It’s unusual to poll a race and then wait six months and poll it again and find that nothing has changed,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But Mark Warner’s double digit lead in this race has proven to be very steady.”

PPP's newest Virginia Senate poll finds a very steady race, with almost no change since the last survey we did there in the spring. Mark Warner leads Ed Gillespie 48/35, compared to a 49/35 advantage when we looked at the race in April. Libertarian Robert Sarvis is proving to be less of a factor than he was in the race for Governor last year- he's polling at just 4% and when you take him out of the mix Warner's lead is pretty much unchanged at 49/37.

Warner has a positive approval rating at 49/40. Meanwhile Gillespie is not proving to be a particularly appealing candidate- only 29% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 37% who view him negatively. Warner has a double digit advantage because he is winning over 17% of the Republican vote, while just 3% of Democrats are going for Gillespie. Warner is even slightly ahead with white voters at 44/43 and with seniors by a wider margin at 48/41, both groups that Democrats don't typically perform that well with.

The General Assembly and its Republican leadership are pretty unpopular with Virginia voters. The General Assembly overall has just a 28% approval rating, with 46% of voters disapproving of it. Democrats (22/52), independents (26/50), and narrowly even Republicans (36/37) all give the General Assembly poor marks. The Republicans leadership in particular is seen favorably by just 33% of Virginians to 47% with an unfavorable opinion. 72% of Virginians oppose budget cuts to K-12 education and teacher salaries, 64% oppose cuts to workforce development funding, 63% support continued tax relief on car sales, and 62% oppose cuts to higher education.

A couple of hotly debated issues over the last year play to Democrats' advantage in Virginia. 62% of voters support increasing the minimum wage to $10 an hour, compared to only 30% who are opposed. 90% of Democrats, 56% of independents, and even 37% of Republicans support the minimum wage increase. There's also 55/35 support for Medicaid expansion with 87% of Democrats supporting it, independents behind it by a 50/36 margin, and 25% of Republicans in favor.

July 19, 2013

Raleigh, N.C.- PPP’s latest poll of Virginia
voters shows that while 2014 may be an easy victory for Democrats, 2016 could
still be anyone’s game. Mark Warner is looking very comfortable with a 51%
approval rating, compared to 31% who disapprove. He currently holds double
digit leads over all possible competitors, including Lieutenant Governor Bill
Bolling (53% to 35%), House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (52% to 36%), State
Delegate Bob Marshall (50% to 34%), and Governor Bob McDonnell (51% to 36%).

Of these possible Republican candidates, only Bolling has a positive
favorability rating split, 25% to 17%, though a good majority, 58% have no
opinion whatsoever. All the others are unpopular with the voters of Virginia;
McDonnell has a 45% unfavorable rating compared to 32% favorable, Cantor has
42% unfavorable to 25% favorable, and Marshall is at 16% favorable to 7%
favorable.

PPP's newest Virginia poll finds that Mark Warner as ever remains the most popular politician in the state and would have double digit leads over a handful of high profile Republicans for reelection.

51% of voters approve of the job Warner is doing to 31% who disapprove. He would lead Bob McDonnell by 15 (51/36), Bob Marshall and Eric Cantor by 16 each (50/34 and 52/36 respectively), and Bill Bolling by 18 (53/35) in hypothetical match ups.

As well liked as Warner is, he would still be no match for Hillary Clinton in the state if she ran for President in 2016. 51% of Democrats say she would be their pick for the nomination to 14% for Joe Biden, 11% for Warner, 6% for Elizabeth Warren, 4% for Cory Booker, 3% for Martin O'Malley, and 2% for Andrew Cuomo.

That at least gives Warner more home state support for the White House than McDonnell has. He finishes 6th in the Republican Presidential standings- there's a pile up at the top with Jeb Bush and Chris Christie both at 16%, followed by Rand Paul at 15%, Marco Rubio at 12%, Paul Ryan at 11%, Ted Cruz at 9%, McDonnell at 8%, Bobby Jindal at 4%, and Rick Santorum at 2%.

Clinton has pretty solid leads over all of the Republicans in head to head match ups- except Chris Christie, who she leads only 42/41. The rest she has advantages larger than Barack Obama's margin of victory in the state over- 5 points on Jeb Bush at 47/42, 10 on Bob McDonnell at 49/39, and 12 on Marco Rubio and Rand Paul at 49/37 and 51/39 respectively.

July 15, 2013

Raleigh, N.C.- PPP's newest
Virginia poll finds that Bob McDonnell's net approval rating has dropped 12
points in the last month, and that for the first time since taking office he's
under water. Only 36% of voters approve of the job he's doing to 41% who
disapprove.

McDonnell's numbers are down across the board from our last poll of the
state. He's dropped from 73% approval with Republicans to 62%, 22% approval
with Democrats to 14%, and from a 39/41 spread to a 36/43 one with
independents. McDonnell's favorability numbers are even worse than his approval
numbers with just 32% of voters seeing him in a positive light to 45% who have
a negative opinion.

McDonnell's ethics issues seem to be driving this downturn in his
popularity. Only 31% of voters in the state consider him to be an ethical
politician, compared to 45% who do not. McDonnell's issues could be a liability
for the Republican ticket this fall as 31% of voters say they'd be less likely
to vote for a candidate backed by him to only 15% that say they'd be more
likely to support someone based on his blessing. Among independent voters it's
29% less likely and 13% more likely.

PPP's newest Virginia poll finds that Bob McDonnell's net approval rating has dropped 12 points in the last month, and that for the first time since taking office he's under water. Only 36% of voters approve of the job he's doing to 41% who disapprove.

McDonnell's numbers are down across the board from our last poll of the state. He's dropped from 73% approval with Republicans to 62%, 22% approval with Democrats to 14%, and from a 39/41 spread to a 36/43 one with independents. McDonnell's favorability numbers are even worse than his approval numbers with just 32% of voters seeing him in a positive light to 45% who have a negative opinion.

McDonnell's ethics issues seem to be driving this downturn in his popularity. Only 31% of voters in the state consider him to be an ethical politician, compared to 45% who do not. McDonnell's issues could be a liability for the Republican ticket this fall as 31% of voters say they'd be less likely to vote for a candidate backed by him to only 15% that say they'd be more likely to support someone based on his blessing. Among independent voters it's 29% less likely and 13% more likely.

There is one piece of good news for McDonnell in the poll though- only 35% of voters think he should resign at this point to 45% who believe he should remain in office.

May 31, 2013

Raleigh,
N.C.- PPP's newest Virginia survey finds that voters aren't too keen
on a 2016 Bob McDonnell Presidential bid. Only 17% think he should make a
run for the White House to 57% who are opposed to the idea. Even among
Republicans just 30% think he should go for it to 37% who think he should not.

The lack of enthusiasm from Republicans about a McDonnell campaign shows
through in numbers that find he is only the fourth choice of primary voters in
the state to be their next national standard bearer. 17% support Marco Rubio
with Chris Christie at 15% and Jeb Bush at 14% also coming in ahead of
McDonnell's 12%. After that it's Rand Paul at 10%, Ted Cruz and Paul Ryan at
8%, Bobby Jindal at 3%, and Rick Santorum at 2%.

PPP's newest Virginia survey finds that voters aren't too keen on a 2016 Bob McDonnell Presidential bid. Only 17% think he should make a run for the White House to 57% who are opposed to the idea. Even among Republicans just 30% think he should go for it to 37% who think he should not.

The lack of enthusiasm from Republicans about a McDonnell campaign shows through in numbers that find he is only the fourth choice of primary voters in the state to be their next national standard bearer. 17% support Marco Rubio with Chris Christie at 15% and Jeb Bush at 14% also coming in ahead of McDonnell's 12%. After that it's Rand Paul at 10%, Ted Cruz and Paul Ryan at 8%, Bobby Jindal at 3%, and Rick Santorum at 2%.

McDonnell would start out at a deficit in a general election match up with Hillary Clinton in his home state as well. Clnton leads him 48/42, a larger margin of victory than Barack Obama achieved over Mitt Romney in the state last November. Clinton also leads 46/42 over Marco Rubio.

Despite Mark Warner's immense popularity with voters in Virginia, he still runs a very distant third to Clinton when it comes to who Democrats would like to see as their 2016 candidate. 56% pick Clinton to 14% for Joe Biden, 11% for Warner, 3% each for Andrew Cuomo and Elizabeth Warren, 1% each for Kirsten Gillibrand and Martin O'Malley, and less than 1% each for Deval Patrick and Brian Schweitzer. Clinton has majority support from liberals, moderates, men, women, whites, African Americans, and voters within every age group.

PPP POLLS BY YEAR: 2006-2016

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