THIS BLOG RATES THE S&P 500 BUY/SELL/OR HOLD EACH DAY WITH 2-GOALS FOR LONG TERM INVESTMENTS: (1) PRESERVE CAPITAL (2) BEAT THE S&P 500.
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Thursday, February 16, 2017

“U.S. homebuilding fell in January as the construction of
multi-family housing projects dropped, but upward revisions to the prior
month's data and a jump in permits to a one-year high suggested the housing
recovery remained on track.” Story at…

“Fewer Americans than forecast filed last week
applications for unemployment benefits, underscoring a vibrant labor market. Jobless
claims rose by 5,000 to 239,000 in the week ended Feb. 11, a report from the
Labor Department showed Thursday…Near historic lows, first-time claims have
been below 300,000 for the longest period since 1970.” Story at…

“The Philadelphia Fed said its manufacturing index soared
in February to a 33-year high, in another indication of improving business
sentiment in the wake of a Republican election sweep. The Philadelphia Fed
index surged to a reading of 43.3 from 23.6 in January.” Story at…

“There’s already talk of impeachment, just three weeks
into Donald Trump’s turbulent presidency. In fact, many are already betting on
it….And the odds aren’t as long as you might think. Ladbrokes, the British odds making giant, has Trump’s chances
of leaving office via resignation or impeachment and removal at just 11-to-10,
or just a little worse than even money.” Story at…

My cmt: The odds are 4-1 against impeachment this year in
Ireland. That’s still pretty high, isn’t it?

MORE TRUMP SPECULATION (International Business Times)

“If Trump's team were found to have conspired with Russia
to interfere in the election, experts believe this could constitute grounds for
impeachment under anti-treason laws. Former NSA legal counsel Susan Hennessey told Forbesthat
"If sufficient evidence emerges that the FBI has substantiated the
allegations or is preparing criminal indictments, then even hardline
Republicans in Congress will likely call for [US vice president Mike] Pence to
take the oath of office." Story at…

-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped to 2.448%.
(Since the yield is an inverse to price, this means investors were buying
Treasuries.)

The crisis is on; the market actually dropped for one
day.There was late day buying that
hinted at a bullish turn.Longer term,
late day action suggests the Pros are lightening up after the big bull run.

As previously noted, the Market is overextended, but NEVER
MIND; stocks appear that they will keep going up forever. EVERYONE IS BULLISH.

CURRENT RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.While momentum isn’t stock performance per
se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the
4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, Financials (XLF) have outperformed
the S&P 500 by nearly 20%.

*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…

Now I wish I had tightened trading rules sooner. I am
underwater again!

-“In a bull market, you can only be long or
neutral.” – D. Gartman

-“The best policy
is to avoid shorting unless a major bear market is underway and downside
momentum has been thoroughly established. Even then, your timing must sometimes
be perfect. In a bull market the trend is truly your friend, and trading
against the grain is usually a fool's errand.” – Clif Droke.

“There are two kinds of forecasters. Those who
don’t know, and those who don’t know they don’t know.”- John Kenneth Galbraith.

THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

Market Internals
switched to Neutral on the market.

Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late.They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.In 2014, using these
internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on
Positive, out on Negative – no shorting).

Followers

About Me

I am an engineer with a lifelong interest in "playing with numbers" so what could be more fun than trying to develop a system that beats the stock market? Well, lots of things, but I decided to do this anyway.
While I am not a finance-professional, or professional investor, I have developed some skills.
I competed in two CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio contests finishing in the top 4% in 2008 (34,320th of 800,000) and the top 0.1% (448th of 500,000) in 2009. More importantly, I managed to sell out of my retirement accounts at or near the top in 2000 and 2007 and bought close enough to the bottom that I didn’t lose too much sleep. (Even Bill Gates lost SOME sleep.)
I hope that my thoughts will help you achieve your investing goals. Please remember that my ideas are free and there may be times when my ideas are worth less than what you paid.