A blog on crisis communications best practices, emergency information and social media in emergency management ... an open forum for exchanging ideas and experience on emergency info and SMEM..
THE OPINIONS EXPRESSED WITHIN ARE MINE AND DO NOT REPRESENT OFFICIAL GOVERNMENT POLICY OR THE VIEWS OF MY EMPLOYER.

While I was reflecting on the material for this post, I realized that the five key factors I believe will greatly impact emergency management in 2013 are related (some more closely than others ...).

To me, the single most important phenomenon impacting our planet today and having a big disruptive impact on our communities and on emergency managers, is climate change. I don't care if you believe it's human caused or not ...

As we face more large scale events, many of us must deal with diminishing resources and smaller budgets to keep up emergency management programs. While our public expects us to do more (just think of the new demands brought by social media and crowdsourcing ...), we must do so with less.

The third key factor that will impact emergency managers on a global scale will be the growing scarcity of water and food supplies. This is not just something that should concern people in Africa or Central Asia. North Americans should also be very aware of what lurks ahead. It's a planetary issue.

Urban encroachment, desertification, overuse of chemicals are all having an impact on our global ability to feed the world's population. Are we heading toward starvation on a planetary level? That may seem alarmist, especially when a recent report indicates we waste half the food we already have ...

The fourth factor that could very well bring about large headaches for emergency managers is a wholesale collapse of our financial system. Although it seems, we're slowly recovering from the crisis that started in 2008, many believe the worse is still to come.

Somebody who's accurately predicted socioeconomic upheaval in the past is saying a "great depression" is on the horizon. No matter what you think of Gerard Celente, the prospect is a scary one:

The growing inequality between the "haves" and the "have nots" is a sure sign of trouble brewing on the horizon. The activities we saw in the last 18 months by the Occupy Movement would pale in comparison with what would happen if a new "great depression" occurs (and many believe it will come with the collapse of the financial system).

So what does this mean for emergency management? How about social unrest, no budget, no staff, shortage of emergency personnel and a general distrust of government. How effectively could we deal with incidents and disasters then?

The fifth factor that could greatly disrupt the "peaceful" existence of emergency managers in 2013 is the specter of large-scale terror attacks. Have we been lulled into a false sentiment of security since there have been no large attacks on our shores since 9-11? Is this about to change?

But it's perhaps at the strategic level, where a state-sponsored attack could really hurt and victimize all of us in a personal way, returning us to the 19th century. Yep, I'm talking about an EMP attack. That, and other kinds of attacks with WMDs is still a major worry and that's why preparedness is a must.

Now, my hope is that I'm totally wrong and none of these five factors really disrupt our personal and professional lives this year. But wishful thinking just won't do. We must adapt our preparedness and capabilities to face new realities. That's why I'm such a believer in social convergence (social networks and mobile technologies) that foster community resilience and the crowdsourcing of response and recovery efforts.