Monday, February 25, 2013

Poised for a Breakout Season: Kyle Seager

Talk
about some of the best young players in the game and Kyle Seager’s name isn’t
likely to come up. In 2012 he hit only .259 and put up just a .738 OPS.On top of all of this, he plays for the
Seattle Mariners and sits in the middle of an offense that had the 4th
lowest runs per game last season in baseball.

But,
look beyond that, and you see a player that is poised for a big season in 2013.

Seager
did have 35 doubles, 20 home runs, and drove in 86 runs in 2012. He did steal
13 bases, and he had 251 total bases. His 56 extra base hits put him tied for 8th
among third basemen in baseball. And he’s done all of this while playing half
of his games in Seattle. Which, brings me to the reason that I believe he is
ready for a breakout season.

The
Seattle Mariners have brought their outfield walls in a bit this season. The
left center field fence was brought in from 390 feet to 378 feet. Center field
was brought in from 405 feet to 401 feet. Right center field was brought in
from 385 to 381 feet. The deepest point, 409 feet, will now be 405 feet. The fences
down the line will remain what they were, 331 feet to left field and 326 feet
to right field, respectively.

Why does
this matter in terms of Kyle Seager? Well, for one, Seager is a career .298
hitter with an .834 OPS away from Safeco Field, as opposed to his .215 batting
average and .607 OPS at home. His power has been completely sapped at home
(.311 slugging percentage) versus on the road (.501 slugging percentage). Of
his 23 career home runs, 18 of them have come on the road. Of his 72 extra base
hits, just 25 of them have come at home.

At 25
years old, Kyle Seager is just beginning to get close to his prime. In his
rapid rise from 3rd round pick out of the University of North
Carolina in 2009 to playing on the infield for the Seattle Mariners, Seager hit
.328 with an .875 OPS over 1,245 plate appearances in the minor leagues. While
his true power never really showed in the minor leagues (he had only 22 home
runs), Seager has always been a player with good gap power and an advanced
approach at the plate. Because of that, along with his contact ability, Seager
is a player who’s power could play up at the big league level.

With the
acquisitions of Michael Morse and Kendrys Morales, the Mariners also have gotten
more fire power in their lineup to support Kyle Seager. In 2012, Seager hit
.280 with men on, including .308 with runners in scoring position. He should be
hitting in the middle of an improved Seattle Mariners offense.