Treasury prices fell Tuesday for the seventh straight session—the longest losing streak since May 2015—pushing yields to their highest level in over a month.

Investors drove down prices as they braced for a Federal Reserve monetary-policy announcement on Wednesday that could offer clues on interest rates in coming weeks.

Investors have essentially ruled out a rate increase at this two-day meeting. A closely watched measure of the market’s Fed expectations, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, indicates a 0% probability of a rate increase in April and just a 23% probability of a rate increase in June.

But even as the broader market does not expect a rate rise, Treasury yields have been on a constant uptrend over the past few sessions, tracking a similar rise in German bund yields. That move, analysts said, has been largely due to continuing strength in equities
SPX, +0.01%
and oil
US:CLM6
which led investors to sell assets perceived as safe, including bonds, for the potentially higher reward of riskier investments.

The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-­year note
TMUBMUSD10Y, +0.72%
rose 2.9 basis points to 1.931%, its highest level since March 22, according to Tradeweb. The yield has risen for seven consecutive sessions, its longest streak since May 6, 2015. One basis point is equal to one­-hundredth of a percentage point.

“Policy makers will likely want to introduce a level of uncertainty, which will give them a sense of [an] option at their next meeting,” said Guy LeBas, chief fixed-income strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott.

Given that market participants currently price in a one-in-five chance of a June rate increase, if the Fed’s language reflects closer to a 50-50 chance, short-term Treasury yields would likely spike, LeBas said.

Short-term Treasury yields are sensitive to changes in the Fed-funds rate and tend to rise when expectations for a rate rise increase. But long-term Treasury yields move based on growth and inflation expectations, not necessarily the anticipation of the Fed’s actions, LeBas said.

Still, growth expectations remain subdued, analysts said, as a flurry of economic data on Tuesday painted a weak picture of the U.S. economy.

Bottom line, “economic activity slowed in the fourth quarter, will likely be close to flatlining in the first quarter and is beginning the second quarter with very little signs of a pronounced rebound,” said Peter Boockvar, chief market analyst at The Lindsey Group, in emailed comments.

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