The EU analysis of the security threats posed by global warming predicts social unrest as an influx of immigration sweeps "destination" Europe, following failing harvests and environmental conflicts in the world's poorest countries.

"There will be millions of 'environmental' migrants by 2020, with climate change as one of the major drivers of this phenomenon," states the report.

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The stark report, written by Javier Solana, the EU foreign policy chief, and Benita Ferrero-Waldner, the Commissioner for External Relations, forecasts the rise of vicious new conflicts following the impact of climate change.

"The inability of a government to meet the needs of its population as a whole or to provide protection in the face of climate change-induced hardship could trigger frustration, lead to tensions between ethnic and religious groups within countries and to political radicalisation."

"This could destabilise countries and even entire regions," says the report.

Another major concern flagged up in the report is growing rivalry with Russia over a scramble to claim the geological resources opened by a thawing Arctic, developments with "potential consequences for international stability and European security interests".

"The rapid melting of the polar ice caps, in particular the Arctic, is opening up new waterways and international trade routes," says the report.

"The increased accessibility of the enormous hydrocarbon resources in the Arctic region is changing the geo-strategic dynamics of the region."

As man-made climate change gathers pace, the EU report also raises the spectre of water wars in the Middle East, where two-thirds of the Arab world relies on external supplies.

"Existing tensions over access to water are almost certain to intensify in the region, leading to further political instability with detrimental implications for Europe's energy security and other interests. Water supply in Israel might fall by 60 per cent over this century," the paper says.

Falling harvests in Turkey, Iraq, Syria and Saudi Arabia are, the EU analysis warns, in danger of sparking conflicts, such as the fighting in Darfur.

"Climate change will fuel conflicts over depleting resources, especially where access to those resources is politicised," the report said.

The alarming report is timed to concentrate the minds of Europe's leaders who meet in Brussels on Thursday to agree a package of painful EU targets aimed at cutting CO2 emissions 20 per cent by 2020.

"The EU is in a unique position to respond to the impacts of climate change on international security, given its leading role," the seven page paper argues.

The issue is also beginning to concern Nato ahead of next month's meeting, IN Bucharest, of the Alliance's leaders. A new manifesto, being drawn up for the Nato of the 21st century, sees the Alliance "as an instrument of energy security".