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I am Professor and Chair of the Department of Political Science and Public Administration at the University of North Carolina at Charlotte. I am also the editor of the academic journal The Latin Americanist.

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Thursday, August 06, 2015

The United States views with concern reports of recent decisions by the Venezuelan National Electoral Council and Comptroller General banning certain members of the political opposition from running for or holding public office. These decisions clearly have the intention of complicating the ability of the opposition to run candidates for the legislative elections, and limiting the range of candidates that can be presented to the Venezuelan people.

Democracy must be inclusive. Its purpose is to provide a broad enough range of choice for voters to express their preferences in meaningful fashion. To this end, we call on all relevant Venezuelan authorities to reconsider the ban imposed on candidates, and reiterate our call for credible and timely electoral observation. We encourage the appropriate institutions to ensure that Venezuelans can exercise their right to participate in the upcoming elections, as candidates and voters, in keeping with Venezuela’s democratic traditions and in accordance with the Inter-American Democratic Charter.

Without knowing what's being said in private, there is no way to tell precisely how all these get linked together. But I would guess that a key message is that a) allowing election observers; and b) not banning everyone you dislike holds the promise of more thawing. The U.S. wants free elections, though it also wants Venezuela not to collapse. In that sense, Maduro's own mismanagement gives him a bit of leverage--the U.S. will talk for fear of getting an even worse outcome. In the meantime, you keep periodically sniping at each other. I'm not sure whether that qualifies as "thaw."

At this point, I don't know that the Obama administration has any better options. Cracking down hard on Venezuela would lead to more disarray and would not play well in the region. I still believe that the sanctions make it harder for Latin American governments to criticize Maduro, and I can't see the U.S. getting its desired outcome by imposing more. The best solution is for Venezuelans to sort it out themselves, and the way to do that is to encourage free elections.