Why Does Crime Happen Where it Does?

Cory Siskind

Looking at a crime heat map can seem nonsensical. Why there? What is it about any particular neighborhood that generates more or less crime? In some cities, crime always seems to be concentrated in the same areas. In others, mostly developing market cities, the map is shifting all the time. What’s going on?

Scholars and academics have lengthy answers. At Base Operations, we think about how two kinds of crime affect the map:

1. Opportunistic Crime

These are crimes that happen because the opportunity arises. Factors that encourage or discourage opportunistic crime include city infrastructure, police presence, time of day, special events, and neighborhood demographics. In Mexico City, for example, there is a neighborhood called Observatorio. It has a crowded bus and metro depot, fancy cars that pass through on their way to the wealthy Lomas neighborhood, and a location that sits neatly between several thoroughfares. Unfortunately for its residents, visitors, and close friends of the Base Operations team, that makes it prime real estate for carjacking.

A common misconception is that crime levels are aligned with socio-economic status. More often than not, this is an oversimplification. A quiet middle class neighborhood like Navarte, for example, has much less crime than trendy and touristy Roma or Condesa. Many known factors combine to make a location an opportunistic crime hotspot.

2. Organized Crime

Organized crime impacts the map in a totally different way. Think about how a city government divides up the map. There are municipalities, important routes, and police officers in charge of different segments of the city. In some cities, you can draw a similar map for organized crime. Gangs or cartels control certain territories where they claim the right to pursue nefarious activities in a competition free environment.

Depending on the frequency of activities like drug dealing, extortion, or kidnapping, an area under a gang or cartel’s control might experience higher crime rates. The real surge in crime rates, however, happens when that map shifts. When organized criminal groups fight each other for control of an area, the resulting violence spills out into the community. These territory shifts and subsequent violence can happen in any part of a city. There is no news source that reports on what groups control what areas and what is in flux. No one publishes this map. Sometimes residents just know it, because they’re on the ground and it’s the reality. Most often, however, everyone is taken by surprise.

This combination of known and dynamic factors, opportunistic and organized crime, make understanding the crime landscape of a new city a real challenge. When you throw in violence against journalists, censored media, low trust in authorities, and chronic underreporting, it’s no easy feat to even understand what’s going on. At Base Operations, that’s exactly what we’re trying to do.