Most Welsh adults anticipate a hung Parliament after the General Election on 7 May

Welsh public opinion is split on what the overall outcome of the next General Election will be, but fewer than one in five (18%) expect either the Conservative party or the Labour party to win an overall majority in the UK Parliament.

A representative sample of over 1,000 adults across Wales interviewed on the March Wales Omnibus was asked the following question and given a range of possible outcomes from which to choose (see chart below):

On May 7 this year there will be a General Election for the UK Parliament. Regardless of your party preferences, what do you think will be the overall result?

Most of those interviewed expect either the Conservatives or Labour to have the largest number of seats across the UK but without an overall majority (17% and 14% respectively) or think that the Conservative and Labour party will be tied with the same number of seats (9%).

Another 16% of the population expect another result, whilst over a quarter (27%) could not comment on the likely outcome of the General Election. Those least likely to be able to answer the question were young people (with the proportion saying ‘don’t know’ rising to 44% of 16-24s and 38% of 25-34s) and those in the lowest social grades, with over one in three (35%) of semi-skilled and unskilled manual workers, casual workers and those on benefits or state pensions saying ‘don’t know’.

People in the middle classes or ABC1 socioeconomic groups (that is those working in managerial, administrative and professional occupations) are more likely to anticipate a positive result for the Conservative party than the working classes or C2DEs (that is those working in skilled or unskilled manual occupations, casual jobs or those not in paid employment) – 34% of ABC1s expect the Conservatives to gain an overall majority or win the largest number of seats without an overall majority compared to 19% of C2DEs. In contrast, the working classes (C2DEs) are more likely to anticipate a positive result for the Labour party at the General Election, with 25% of them expecting Labour to either win an overall majority or have the largest number of seats but fall short of an overall majority after 7 May, compared with 21% of ABC1s of this opinion.

Those living in the South Wales Valleys (traditionally a Labour stronghold) are most likely to anticipate a Labour majority or the Labour party to win the largest number of seats in the next UK Parliament (at 35% compared with 23% across Wales).