I keep looking at the NAM regarding the strong WAA at 850mb. Notice how strong the 850mb flow is with this system. The NAM has a tendency to do this with regards to wrapping up the 850mb low and bringing in an artificially strong 850mb LLJ. In fact, I’ve seen it do this a couple of time this fall and winter, only to have the short range models shift the LLJ significantly south and east of the region as the system approaches. I usually keep a close eye on this because of my research with mountain waves.

This certainly isn’t a guarantee, but it is something to keep an eye on. Any weakening or shift of this LLJ would help our chances by weakening WAA into the area.

Last edited by Math/Met on 2015-02-15, 6:27 pm; edited 2 times in total

The 0z nam is even further north.... Starting to look like now, even for me all out sleet storm. Instead of a nice snow storm, it still shows around a few inches of snow along the tn/ky border, but..... Who knows? I'll look at the gfs before I go to bed.

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