Obama Clings to a Narrow Lead

New Poll Shows Him Doing Better Than Romney in Swing States; Both Candidates Face Challenges

By

Janet Hook,

Daniel Lippman and

Neil King Jr.

Updated June 26, 2012 7:32 pm ET

President Barack Obama has managed to retain a narrow lead in his race for re-election despite a spate of poor economic news and surging GOP optimism about Mitt Romney's prospects, a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds.

The president outpolls Mr. Romney, his presumed Republican rival, 47% to 44%, a lead within the survey's margin of error and similar to the advantage he enjoyed a month ago. Mr. Obama's lead is wider in swing states, where the campaigns have battled most intensely.

The poll highlights challenges facing both candidates. While Mr. Obama retains a durable base of support, his standing among white, working-class voters, which was low to start with, continues to erode. Interest in the campaign isn't nearly as intense as it was four years ago among young people and Latinos, who were important to Mr. Obama's victory in 2008.

At the same time, more people viewed Mr. Romney unfavorably than favorably by a six-point margin, with nearly one quarter of those polled viewing him "very negatively"—twice the level in December. Mr. Romney's business background, which he has made a central element of his candidacy, is a draw for many, the poll found. But it is viewed negatively by even more people.

Overall, the survey presents the presidential race as both tight and stable. "It looks like a dead heat on a merry-go-round," said Peter Hart, the Democratic pollster who conducts the Journal survey with Republican Bill McInturff. "There is the appearance of motion, but the horses' positions haven't changed."

Mr. Obama's advantage is more pronounced among poll respondents in 12 battleground states which, taken as a group, favor him 50% to 42%. His larger lead in those states, which include Nevada, Colorado, Pennsylvania and Virginia, could reflect the impact of ads by his campaign that criticized Mr. Romney's record as a businessman and portrayed him as out of touch with the middle class.

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"There are two campaigns—the one being fought out in the press, and one in swing states," said Mr. McInturff. "We're seeing some indications that the advertising could be having an impact."

The poll of 1,000 adults was conducted June 20-24, after a month that seemed to offer much to buoy Mr. Romney. His fundraising was strong, the May jobs report was weak, and Mr. Obama was widely criticized for saying the private sector was "doing fine." Republican confidence grew after an effort by labor unions and their Democratic allies to recall Wisconsin's Republican governor failed.

But the poll found that Mr. Romney's long business resume is a mixed blessing: Some 23% said they viewed him more positively because of it, but 28% said it made them view Mr. Romney more negatively. The gap was more pronounced in swing states, where only 18% viewed his business experience positively and 33% viewed it negatively. Mr. Romney's background was described in the poll as "managing a firm that specializes in buying, restructuring and selling companies.''

The poll also had warning signs for Mr. Obama. His approval rating, 47%, dipped to its lowest level of the year, while more people disapproved of his economic stewardship—53%—than at any time since December. Nearly two thirds said the country was on the wrong track.

Those measures of pessimism—about the direction of the country, Mr. Obama's performance as president and his handling of the economy—are particularly strong among people who haven't yet decided which candidate to back.

Mr. Obama lost more ground in June among white, working-class voters. Some 30% approved of his job performance, and 60% disapproved. In May, 36% had approved and 56% disapproved. Those voters make up around 18% of those polled.

Overall, interest in the election among Obama supporters is picking up, but many still lack real zeal. "It's definitely a lesser of two evils," said Pat Stazick, 54, a Colorado homemaker who plans to vote for Mr. Obama. "I don't think he's overly competent at his job, and he's naïve about the state of international affairs. His handling of the economy hasn't been very good either."

In a more potent threat to the president's prospects, young voters don't seem as interested in the election. In mid-2008, 62% of those under 34 showed high interest levels in the election; now only 46% do. Interest levels among Latinos have dropped as well. That may change in the aftermath of Mr. Obama's new policy to halt deportations of many young illegal immigrants who came to the U.S. as children. The poll found that people have far more confidence in Democrats' ability to handle immigration issue—a major shift from a year ago, when Republicans had a clear advantage.

President Barack Obama walks to greet people on the tarmac as he arrives at Miami International Airport on Tuesday.
Associated Press

On other issues, the two parties are holding on to their traditional advantages: Republicans are seen as the party that would do a better job handling taxes, the economy and moral values, as well as controlling spending and reducing the deficit. Democrats are seen as better equipped to handle Medicare, Social Security, heath care and other policies affecting the middle class.

Danny Phillips of Virginia, 48 years old, said he planned to vote for Mr. Romney, because "I believe that he'll do things to help the economy and create jobs.…I like people who have business backgrounds."

One of Mr. Obama's greatest advantages is general approval of him as a person. The net assessment of Mr. Obama remained positive.And 60% said he inherited the economic problems the country faces.

Joseph Reilly, a city planner in Deep Run, N.C., isn't particularly keen on Mr. Obama. "He's just kind of fizzled," he said. Still, he plans to vote "against Romney," he said, since he has "gotten so far removed from what the average citizen goes through."

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