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Maybe the Conservatives picked the wrong party/leader to attack with ads

Posted by Scott Tribe on March 22, 2012, at 7:06 am |

A new poll is out – released last night from Environics. According to their numbers, the NDP is tied with the Conservatives for popular support:

The survey by Environics Research Group provided to The Globe and Mail has the two parties at 30 per cent support among voters. That’s about the same percentage of the popular vote that the NDP earned in the May 2 general election. For the Conservatives, it represents a drop of 10 points.….The Liberals are in third place with 20-per-cent support, up one point from election day.

The reason for this drop in Conservative support? You might automatically think Robo-con, but the pollster lists a variety of issues that may have caused this:

The Conservatives are clearly paying a price for the robo-calls affair, plans to increase the qualifying age for Old Age Security, legislation that would give the government information on individual Internet accounts, and increased uncertainty over the costs of new fighter jets. These issues “haven’t been managed particularly well,” said Darren Karasiuk, vice-president of corporate and public affairs at Environics.

So, it isn’t like the interim leader of the NDP, Nycole Turmel, had thrilled everyone. It’s that people seem to be dismayed with how the Conservatives are governing. That again makes me wonder about the timing of the attack ad on Bob Rae yesterday – might be the Conservatives chose the wrong party to attack.

Maybe just because it would waste resources to be attacking all the NDP leadership candidates. I wouldn’t be the least surprised to know that they have a bunch of ‘dirt’ on all of them and see an attack ad on the winner by Monday night.
Honestly, the thing that I am most afraid of is what Rick Mercer said in his latest Rant: that they will have disgusted enough people that no one votes.

It’s wonderful — let the Cons spend all that money attacking Rae, because as they fixate on attacking him, they aren’t attending to all their other problems.
Remember, it’s 3+ years to the next election, and that’s an eternity in politics. The point is, Stevie’s problems are just starting, and attacking Rae is futile in dealing with them.

The problem is that this is a similar pattern that happened in the lead up to the 2006 Liberal Leadership Convention. The Liberals increased in the polls, surpassing the Conservatives, and then in one poll reaching 40%. It took two months for the bump to fade.

Who knows, maybe it was too close to the Conservative victory to stick. Maybe things will be different this time.