GHACOF49: Regional consensus climate outlook during June to September season given

Authorities in the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) have been advised to take precaution in some countries in the region, due to normal and above normal rainfall expected during the June to September (JJAS) season. "June to September 2018 rainfall season indicates increased likelihood of above normal rainfall over much of the northern sector and increased likelihood of near normal rainfall over parts of the coast and the western areas of the equatorial sector," the statement said.

According to the communique read at the closing ceremony, "the rest of GHA, June to September period is a dry season and these areas are expectedto remain generally dry during June to September 2018. The highlands of the equatorial sector are expected to experience cool and cloudy conditions during June to September 2018 period."

According to a statement issued at the end of the Forty ninth Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 49) held in Djibouti, the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) will provide regional updates on regular basis.

Regional Centre for Mapping of Resources for Development (RCMRD) in Nairobi, Kenya was represented by Anastasia Wahome, Science and Data Lead SERVIR-E&SA; Stephen Sande Remote Sensing Expert SERVIR-E&SA and Dorah Nesoba Communications and Outreach Expert.

The Forty-ninth Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF49) was convened from 13th to 14th May 2018 at Kempinski Palace Hotel, Djibouti, Republic of Djibouti by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) and partners to formulate a consensus regional climate outlook for the June to September 2018 rainfall season over the GHA region. The GHA region comprises Burundi, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda.

The forum reviewed the state of the global climate system including the developing neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions, SSTs over Atlantic and Indian Oceans and IOD phase, and considered their impacts on the GHA during June to September 2018 rainfall season. Users from sectors such as disaster risk management, agriculture and food security, health and water resources as well as non-governmental organisations and development partners actively participated in the formulation of mitigation strategies of the potential impacts of the consensus climate forecast in their respective specific sectors.

The forum examined the prevailing and predicted SSTs over the Pacific, Indian and Atlantic Oceans as well as other global, regional and local climate factors that affect the rainfall evolution during the season. These factors were assessed using dynamical and statistical models as well as expert interpretation. The regional consensus climate outlook also included inputs from National climate Scientists who participated in the Pre-COF 49 Capacity Building Training Workshop was hosted by ICPAC and facilitated RCMRD and the University of Maryland (UMD) one of the SERVIR-E&SA AST's from 8th to 11nd May 2018.

Additional inputs were obtained from various global climate Centres including WMO GPCs and the International Research Centrefor Climate and Society (IRI).