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S KOREA BOOST FOR RECOVERY
Rising Chinese demand helped drive South Korea's economy to its fastest growth in seven years in the third quarter, underscoring how Asia is leading the global economy and trade out of the worldwide downturn.

Asia's fifth-largest economy grew 2.9 per cent from the previous quarter as South Korean exporters benefited from rising Chinese demand. Last week, China said that its economy, which has regained speed on the back of massive government stimulus spending, expanded 8.9 per cent in the third quarter from a year ago.

The South Korean recovery underlines how both demand and production from Asian countries has assumed an increasing role in global growth over the past few months.

A widely watched indicator of trade from the Dutch Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, released last week, showed that import demand from emerging market Asian countries rose 6.6 per cent in the three months to August, sucking in imports from the rich world as well as from other regional economies.

Li Keqiang, the Chinese vice premier in charge of the economy, yesterday said that China's economy was in better shape than the government had forecast earlier this year.

In relatively upbeat remarks that contrasted with recent comments by senior Chinese officials, Mr Li said that the recovery had been “consolidated”.

While Mr Li stressed continuity in fiscal and monetary policy, his language seemed to pave the way for a reduction in economic stimulus measures.

Among Asian countries, South Korea and India are seen as leading regional candidates to follow Australia's lead in hiking interest rates in coming months.

While the Reserve Bank of India is not expected to raise rates when it meets today, it warned yesterday that “inflationary pressures have started to emerge”.

Lee Seong-tae, governor of the Bank of Korea which will review rates on November 12, said last week keeping rates at a record low level for too long would hurt the economy, partly because of the levels of household debt in South Korea.

The South Korean economy – the world's fifteenth largest – grew 0.6 per cent in the third quarter compared with the same period last year.

Kim Myung-kee, a senior central bank official, said that fourth quarter growth would “easily go beyond five per cent” if current momentum continues.

Leading exporters such as Hyundai Motor and Samsung Electronics have reported strong earnings growth. South Korean exports to China in September, for example, rose 4 per cent from a year earlier, the first annual rise in nine months.

Mr Kim and other South Korean officials said that the economy could post flat or positive growth for the year, a significant improvement over the last official forecast of a 1.5 per cent contraction.

When Kim Yu-na, South Korea’s figure skating sensation, takes to the Vancouver ice for her final programme this week, a nation’s pride will be riding on her 19-year-old shoulders. The near-hysteria back home surrounding her efforts to win an Olympic gold is all the more intense because her closest rival, Mao Asada, is from Japan, the old colonial enemy. In a nation used to seeing itself as an underdog, overshadowed by neighbouring China and Japan and all-but ignored by the rest of the world, sporting victory in an international arena takes on a supercharged significance.

But South Korea’s status as an underdog is wearing thin. Its economy is practically as big as India’s even with a population less than one-twentieth the size. It exports more goods than the UK, a statistic admittedly more surprising to those who are aware that Britain still makes things. Samsung, not long ago considered a poor-man’s Sony, overhauled Hewlett-Packard last year to become the world’s biggest technology company by sales. This year, it should make more money than the top 15 Japanese electronics groups combined.

South Korea has had a good crisis. While most other countries fell into recession or staved off collapse by putting themselves in hock, it is already back to robust growth. After treading water in 2009, the economy is expected to expand this year by 4.7 per cent, with a budget deficit of just 2 per cent of output, positively parsimonious in these Keynesian times. Urbanised, sophisticated, wired-up and with a per capita income in purchasing-power terms of some $28,000 – only $5,000 behind arch-rival Japan – South Korea is on the verge of long-cherished rich-country status. It even makes Asia’s most popular soap operas.

Its economy has fared better than anyone dared imagine 18 months ago, when many economists were gloomily predicting a banking crisis. It never happened. Seoul acted swiftly, setting up a $15bn bank recapitalisation fund and helping to stabilise its currency by arranging $90bn in swap guarantees with the US, Japan and China. Diplomats boast they played the latter two off against each other to extract maximum funds. The government also implemented a well-targeted fiscal stimulus, focused on job creation and greening the economy.

Several companies managed to upgrade their technological prowess even as the recession bit. A consortium led by state-run Korea Electric Power Corp, for example, beat US, French and Japanese rivals to a $20bn nuclear power contract in the United Arab Emirates. Seoul predicts it will bag $400bn in nuclear reactor sales over the next 20 years.

Meanwhile, carmaker Hyundai has warmed its corporate hands on Detroit’s bonfire. Now the world’s fastest-growing auto-manufacturer, it has increased US market share from 3.7 per cent to 4.4 per cent in just 12 months. Toyota’s problems will only add to its momentum: it is one of the companies offering a $1,000 discount for a Toyota trade-in.

Manufacturing exports overall have come back faster than almost anyone expected. Korean companies are big suppliers of equipment and materials needed for China’s stimulus-fuelled building extravaganza. Its cars, DVD recorders and other electronic goodies are in the right price range to win market share from stingier consumers. Exporters have been helped by their high exposure to emerging markets, which make up 70 per cent of demand for Korean goods. Manufacturers have further benefited from a sharp currency realignment that has seen the yen strengthen and, until recently, the won depreciate. “Since the crisis, things have flipped decisively in South Korea’s favour,” says Kwon Goo-hoon, executive director at Goldman Sachs in Seoul.
The successes of corporate Korea are being matched by a new diplomatic swagger. Washington’s relations with Japan are rockier than normal because of disagreements over military bases. US-Sino ties are being tested by disputes over arms sales to Taiwan and cyber-security. That leaves South Korea as Washington’s new best friend in the region, a factor that has helped bolster its credentials as this year’s president of the Group of 20.

South Korea, of course, faces enormous challenges. Its success is too dependent on a clutch of huge conglomerates such as Samsung. These companies still need to prove they are world-class innovators. The service sector is under-developed. The labour market is too inflexible for an economy seeking rapidly to redeploy resources to higher-value industries. Korea’s ride on China’s back could yet prove a liability if its giant neighbour stumbles. It also has one of the world’s most rapidly ageing societies. Unless it can increase productivity, its shrinking labour force holds out the unappetising prospect of producing Japanese-type growth levels.

Of course, many of these problems – like those of Japan itself – are products of success. An economy that in the 1960s had a per capita income on a par with sub-Saharan Africa is now snapping at the heels of Britain and France. Indeed, South Korea has come too far to hide behind its underdog status. Of course it would be nice if Ms Kim, who scored a world record for her short programme on Wednesday, claimed a gold medal this week. But even if she falls flat on her face, South Korea has little to be ashamed of.

CHINI EXPERT

S KOREA BOOST FOR RECOVERY
Rising Chinese demand helped drive South Korea's economy to its fastest growth in seven years in the third quarter, underscoring how Asia is leading the global economy and trade out of the worldwide downturn.

WASHINGTON: The International Monetary Fund said on Sunday financial aid for Greece, which will be released out of Brussels later, will be "big and unprecedented" but gave no further details.

IMF chief negotiator, Poul Thomsen, briefed reporters on Sunday after Greece agreed with the European Union and the IMF on a massive financial bailout for the debt-stricken country.

In exchange for a bailout of up to 120 billion euros ($160 billion), the largest assembled for any country, Athens announced spending cuts and tax increases totaling $30 billion euros ($40 billion) on top of austerity measures already announced. An IMF official said that initial results of stress tests indicated that Greek banks may need additional capital to be able to keep operating normally.

TASHKENT: Capital inflows into Asia will not be significantly affected by European debt woes due to the region's high and widening interest rate differentials, the Asian Development Bank's (ADB) chief economist said on Saturday.

Asia's economies have been recovering much faster than the rest of the world from the global crisis, resulting in interest rates in the region rising faster than elsewhere, providing better investment returns without any increase in risk, he said. "It's true that the risk aversion is growing, but capital flows into Asia will not be significantly affected unless the European banking system as a whole gets hit," Jong-Wha Lee of the Manila-based multinational lender told Reuters in an interview. Concerns about fiscal problems in Greece and several other euro-zone economies have rattled global financial markets since late last year, sparking concerns of a repeat of massive capital flight out of Asian emerging markets.

"Asian economies are growing fast and interest rate differentials (with the rest of the world) are big and will get bigger, and so, I don't think there will be a serious impact on capital flows," he said on the sidelines of the ADB's annual meetings in Tashkent.

He said Japan and a few other fiscally weak economies in the region may come under closer scrutiny from investors, but high domestic savings and stronger current account positions kept them in better shape than the southern European economies. "In the case of Greece, they have no such thing as local-currency bonds and much of their bonds are owned by foreign investors, whereas in Japan, it issued a big amount of local currency bonds and domestic households own much of them," he said.

On China's foreign exchange policy, Lee repeated the ADB's stance that it is in China's interest to end the yuan's peg to the U.S. dollar and to allow the currency trade in a broader band. "The biggest risk (from keeping the peg for a long time) is the increasing pressures on the domestic inflation and asset price growth because no country can completely sterilise capital inflows," he said.

WASHINGTON : Deloitte's recent study of the 'global aerospace & defence industry financial performance for 2009' evaluated the performance of the 91 global aerospace & defence companies with revenues exceeding $500 million and found that despite recession of 2009 these companies have demonstrated resilience.

"Despite the economic recession of 2009, these 91 global aerospace & defence companies faced financial challenges head-on and experienced less decline than companies in many other sectors, demonstrating the resilience of the industry," said Tom Captain, vice chairman, and global and United States aerospace & defence sector leader for Deloitte LLP, according to a Deloitte news report.

The study found that if it were not for loss provisions or impairment charges at Boeing, EADS and BAE Systems collectively, profits for these companies would have been essentially flat, again demonstrating the underlying strength of the industry.

Boeing had higher sales revenue than EADS, and regained its position as the world's largest A&D company, reversing its 2nd place performance in 2008.

Government confirms subsidies for hybrid and new energy vehicles
2 June 2010

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This is going to be music to the ears of BYD, Chery, and Geely, and all other Chinese car manufacturers that have hybrids and pure electric vehicles in development. Geely might be a big winner from these subsidies if they go through with their plans to make all of their vehicles hybrids via their ISG system, which basically turns them all soft hybrids. BYD are set to become a big winner with their F3DM, which pushes prices down from 160,000rmb to a more affordable 110,000rmb under this scheme.

BEIJING/SHANGHAI, June 1 (Reuters) – China said on Tuesday that it would launch a pilot programme in five cities to provide subsidies to buyers of electric and hybrid cars, as the government steps up efforts to cut emissions in the world's biggest auto market.

Residents of Shanghai and Shenzhen, as well as Hangzhou and Hefei in the east of the country and Changchun in the northeast, would receive up to 50,000 yuan ($7,320) in subsidies if they buy plug-in hybrid cars, the Ministry of Finance said on its website.

The maximum subsidy for those who bought fully electric cars was 60,000 yuan, the ministry said.

"The handouts could get people interested in green car models now that the government has come up with a concrete plan and real money to back it up," said Harry Zhao, an analyst with industry consultancy CSM Worldwide. "But it's unrealistic to expect it to work like magic; like tax incentives did last year."

Beijing's tax incentives for small cars and subsidies for vehicle buyers in rural areas helped domestic vehicle sales surge 46 percent last year to 13.6 million units, surpassing the United States as the world's top auto market.

The impact of the new subsidies on green car sales was unlikely to be very large in the short term because of high battery costs and an inadequate charging network, but would make it easier for those interested in cars fuelled by alternative energy to decide to buy such vehicles, analysts said.

HYBRID BANDWAGON

Taking cues from the government, the biggest players in the Chinese auto market, from top state auto group SAIC Motor Corp (600104.SS) to rising star Geely Automotive Holding (0175.HK), have been ramping up efforts to bring low-emission vehicles onto the roads.

SAIC plans to roll out its first hybrid car this year, while Shenzhen-based car and battery maker BYD Co (1211.HK), backed by Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRKa.N), started retail sales of its plug-in hybrid F3DM in March.

The government would also allocate unspecified funding to bankroll the construction of charging stations and battery recovery networks in the pilot cities, the finance ministry added.

Instead of handing out subsidies to consumers directly, the government would allocate the money to carmakers, who would then lower the prices of relevant models accordingly, it said, without indicating when the programme would begin.

The level of handouts would be reduced after carmakers sold a total 50,000 green cars, it said, without elaborating.

The government started to offer subsidies for purchases of cleaner buses in early 2009, as part of another pilot programme in 13 cities.

In addition to the new programme limited to the five specified cities, Beijing would also offer nationwide subsidies of 3,000 yuan on purchases of cars with 1.6-litre engines or smaller and that consume 20 percent less fuel than current standards, it added.

LONDON: Despite the recession and tighter immigration policies, Indian companies continued to invest in Britain's business services, software and financial sectors, says the latest European attractiveness survey by Ernst&Young.

In report titled 'Waking up to the new economy', E&Y said Indian and Chinese companies led 'a new breed of FDI players' in Europe, mostly in Western regions, with Britain attracting most of such investments.

"Despite suffering a deep and long recession, Britain remains the most attractive destination for FDI in Europe. It attracted 54 per cent of all Indian FDI projects in Europe and Indian investors are the second-ranked FDI providers in the business services, software and financial sectors, just behind the US", the report said. Collectively, the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) are the third largest investor in Europe.

Stating that the global economy has turned into a multi-polar world in which China, India, Brazil and the Middle-East have joined the traditional players of North America, Europe and Japan as both destinations and sources of global investment, the report said capital is now clearly flowing in multiple directions.

CHINI EXPERT

Airbus, the European maker of the new A380 "superjumbo," says it has agreed a deal to sell a record number of the new planes to Dubai-based airline Emirates in a deal worth an estimated $11.5 billion.

European airplane manufacturer Airbus has secured the largest order in its history, with the Dubai-based airline Emirates agreeing to buy 32 new A380 "superjumbos" for $11.5 billion (9.6 billion euros). The record deal was signed on the first day of the Berlin Air Show.

The latest procurement for Emirates brings total orders for the A380 to 234, following significant delays and cost overruns caused by the fitting of each plane's 500 kilometers (300 miles) of wiring.

The deal brings Emirates' total A380 orders to 90 planes. The airline's chief executive, Sheikh Ahmed Bin Saeed, said he expected all 90 planes to be delivered by 2017.

"Our latest commitment signals Emirates' confidence in growth to come," he said at a press conference.

The sheer size and scope of the order stunned Emirates' global competitors. It has come as a surprise particularly in light of the sharp downturn in the aviation industry following the global financial crisis and the troublesome Icelandic volcano.

The Emirates airline is one of Dubai's largest companies and a significant contributor to the economy of the United Arab Emirates territory.

"For virtually all commodities, the projected growth in imports and exports of developing economies [over the next decade] exceeds that of the OECD area," said the report.While overall world net production of commodities is forecast to grow 22%, production among the 30 members of the OECD is estimated at 10%. Production in western Europe alone will stagnate.

This OECD growth rate is almost three times slower than the growth rate of Bric countries, which is forecast to expand 27%. The report also identifies Ukraine as likely to see rapid agricultural growth over the next few years.

Crop prices, in real terms, will rise between 16% to 40% "above their average for the decade".

And average dairy prices are expected to be 16% to 45% higher, with butter prices showing most gains.

Brazil is forecast to see by far the fastest growth in agriculture, with a expansion of more than 40% through to 2019.

China and India are expected to see growth of 26% and 21% respectively to 2019. Projections for Russia and Ukraine were 26% and 29%.

HONG KONG: Shahrzad Moaven quit a public relations job in London and moved to this teeming metropolis four months ago to take up what she saw as a more exciting post: communications director at the exclusive jeweller Carnet. Jan Mezlik, 29, moved here from the Czech Republic in late April for a job as a trainer in a physical therapy studio called Stretch. For him, the move brought a secure job and the chance to learn to become a yoga instructor.

Charlotte Sumner, a lawyer, arrived eight months ago, thanks to a transfer within her firm. She had spent six months in London and another six in Moscow and had jumped at the chance of a stint in Asia, which she felt would lead to more opportunities than a posting elsewhere.

Before the global financial crisis, none of the three had thought seriously about moving to Asia. But growth in China, India, South Korea and many other countries in the region is outpacing that of Europe and the US. Many local companies are enjoying rapid expansion, while international employers are shifting positions to Asia and are hiring again. So increasingly, European and American job seekers are hoping that Asia is a place where opportunities match their ambitions.

"Things are just so much more dynamic here," Moaven, 28, said. "Back in London, there were fewer resources for PR events or advertising. Here, everyone is expanding and spending on marketing activities. That makes my job here a lot more interesting."

In Hong Kong, the recruiting firm Ambition estimates that the number of risumis arriving from the US and Europe has risen 20-30% since 2008. "These now make up about two-thirds of the more than 600 risumis its Hong Kong office gets every month," said Matthew Hill, Ambitions managing director for the city. Similarly, at eFinancialCareers, an online job site, applications for positions based in Singapore and Hong Kong have jumped nearly 50% in the last year, its Asia-Pacific chief, George McFerran, said.

Landing a position in Asia, though, is not just a matter of being willing to make a new life halfway around the world. Many employers prefer candidates who have track records in the region and who bring language skills and local contacts to the job.

Mike Game, CEO in Asia for Hudson, an international recruitment agency, said the number of Westerners actually making the move was still fairly small. "Many employers are more demanding than they were during the economic peak of 2007 and are setting the bar very high in terms of what they want," he said. Nevertheless, many Westerners seem to be looking to make the move.

DETROIT: President Barack Obama said on Friday that four consecutive quarters of US economic growth is a "welcome sign" of recovery but more was needed to put unemployed Americans back to work.

Speaking to workers at a Chrysler plant after the publication of second quarter growth figures that were slightly worse than expected, Obama recalled that when he took office in early 2009 the economy was shrinking at a rate of six per cent.

"So that means it's now been growing again for one full year. Our economy is growing again instead of shrinking. And that's a welcome sign compared to where we were," he said.

"But we've got to keep on increasing that rate of growth and keep adding jobs so we can keep moving forward," he said.

NEW YORK: Wall Street edged higher on Thursday on strong corporate earnings including Exxon Mobil and after a drop in weekly jobless claims offered a glimmer of hope for the anemic labor market recovery.

Initial claims for state unemployment insurance dropped by 11,000 to a seasonally adjusted 457,000 in the latest week, versus the forecast of 459,000. Still, continuing claims rose more than expected.

Exxon Mobil Corp, the S&P's largest company by market capitalization, rose 1.2% to $61.66 after reporting a better-than-expected quarterly profit.

The S&P energy sector added nearly 1%, also boosted by a 1.1% advance in crude futures.

"The Exxon profit news this morning was positive, said Janna Sampson, co-chief investment officer at OakBrook Investments LLC in Lisle, Illinois. "We're in a sideways trading market, reacting to good profits versus bad profits, with no real driver."

Technical measures such as the daily moving average convergence-divergence indicate the S&P 500 is in a strong position to rise, even though it has failed to close above its 200-day simple moving average since Monday. It briefly traded above the 200-day SMA Thursday morning.

"The key now for the (S&P 500) is to hold above the 50-day line, near 1,080, which if it can, would put a lot of stress (on short-sellers)", technical analysts at Instinet said.

Further supporting equities, euro zone economic sentiment rose to a 28-month high in July while German unemployment fell to its lowest level since November 2008, boosting hopes for a pick-up in the consumer sector.

Capping gains on the Nasdaq, Symantec Corp fell 8.3% to $13.45 a day after the world's No. 1 security software maker warned second-quarter sales and profit would likely miss estimates.

Also, chipmaker Nvidia Corp dropped 7.8% to $9.34 a day after it slashed its second-quarter sales outlook.

global economy slowing but recession unlikely says OECD
General Motors workers in the US US economic growth will outpace European growth in the second half of the year, the OECD says

The global economic recovery is slowing faster than forecast, but a return to recession is unlikely, a leading global economic group has said.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said the slowdown had been more "pronounced than anticipated".

As a result, it lowered its growth forecast for 2010 for the G7 leading economies to 1.5%, down from 1.75%.

It added the economic outlook was characterised by "great uncertainty".

"The uncertainty is caused by a combination of factors, but it is unlikely that we are heading into another downturn," said the OECD's chief economist Pier Carlo Padoan.
Continue reading the main story
Growth forecasts: Third, fourth quarter

One of the main causes of the currency crisis in the eurozone is that virtually all countries involved have breached their own self-imposed rules.

Under the convergence criteria adopted as part of economic and monetary union, government debt must not exceed 60% of GDP at the end of the fiscal year. Likewise, the annual government deficit must not exceed 3% of GDP. However, as the maps show, only two of the 16 eurozone countries - Luxembourg and Finland - have managed to stick to both rules.

Overall, Greece is the worst offender, with debt at 115.1% of GDP and a deficit of 13.6% of GDP. But among the bigger economies, Italy's debt is even higher than Greece's as a percentage of GDP, while Spain's deficit is 11.2% of GDP. If the UK were in the eurozone, it would also fall foul of the criteria, with its debt now standing at 68.1% of GDP and its deficit at 11.5% of GDP.

The Ukrainian opposition claims that the country's new leadership does not defend properly Ukraine's national interests in relations with Russia

Russia will not "swallow up" the Ukrainian economy as a result of the blossoming relationship between Moscow and Kiev, Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych said.

Relations between Russia and Ukraine, which sunk to post-Soviet lows in the past five years during the presidency of pro-western Viktor Yushchenko, have improved significantly since Yanukovych's election in February.

However, the Ukrainian opposition claims that the country's new leadership does not defend properly Ukraine's national interests in relations with Russia.

"Ukraine is integrated into the world's economy to such a degree that this [the strengthening of ties with Russia] has little impact [on the state of Ukrainian economy]. But we are watching closely and Russia realizes that," Yanukovych said in an interview with the Ukraina television on Friday night.

He added that his frequent meetings with the Russian leadership were necessary to restart the economic mechanism that had been idle for years.

"We have an obligation to 'jump start' the bilateral economic mechanism that has been partially destroyed...and, of course, both sides defend their national interests," the Ukrainian president said.

According to Yanukovych, Kiev and Moscow are both interested in the revival and development of infrastructure in many branches of the Ukrainian economy, as well as the steady growth of the Russian economy.

"Russia is interested in Ukraine's development because it provides a colossal consumer market [for Russian business]...and we are interested in Russia's development because our trade is already $40 billion," Yanukovych said.

The new Ukrainian leadership has set the strategic aim of joining the EU, but says the country will continue developing closer ties with Russia.

World or global economy generally refers to the economy, which is all the countries of the world economy, the basis of the national economy. The global economy can also be seen as a global society and national economy as the local community's economy, making the global. It can evaluate different types of ways.

The United Nations has warned that the world is on the brink of another recession, projecting that global economic growth will slow down further in 2012 and even emerging powerhouses like India and China, which led the recovery last time, will get bogged down.

The UN 'World Economic Situation and Prospects 2012' report has cut the global growth forecast for next year to 2.6 per cent from 4 per cent in 2010.

It has called 2012 a "make-or-break" year for the global economy, which will face a "muddle-through" scenario and continue to grow at a slow pace.

"Following two years of anaemic and uneven recovery from the global financial crisis, the world economy is teetering on the brink of another major downturn," the UN report said, warning that "the risks for a double-dip recession have heightened".

The report said the failure of policymakers, especially those in Europe and the United States, to address the jobs crisis, prevent sovereign debt distress and escalation of financial sector fragility poses the most acute risk for the global economy in 2012-2013.

Growth in developing countries like India and China, which had stoked the engine of the world economy so far, will also slow down to 5.6 per cent in 2012 from 7.5 per cent in 2010.

"Developing countries are expected to be further affected by the economic woes in developed countries through trade and financial channels," the report said.

GDP growth in China and India is expected to "remain robust, but to decelerate", it said.

India's economy is expected to expand by between 7.7 per cent and 7.9 per cent in 2012-2013, down from 9.0 per cent in 2010.

In China, growth slowed from 10.4 per cent in 2010 to 9.3 per cent in 2011 and is projected to slow further to below 9 per cent in 2012-2013.

Notably, the UN has revised its 2012 prediction downward for every major country.

It projected 1.3 per cent growth for the US (down 0.7 per cent from its last forecast), 1.5 per cent for Japan (down 1.3 per cent), 0.5 per cent for the 27-nation European Union (down 0.8 per cent) and 8.7 per cent for China (down 0.2 per cent).

A serious, renewed global downturn is looming because of persistent weaknesses in major developed economies on account of problems left unresolved in the aftermath of the recession of 2008-2009, it said.

"Most developed country governments have indiscriminately switched from fiscal stimulus to premature austerity measures. This has further weakened global aggregate demand, already nurtured by persistent high unemployment," it said.

Additionally, the economic woes in Europe and the US are exacerbating volatility in international financial and commodity markets and slowing growth in developing countries.

"All of these weaknesses are present and reinforce each other, but a further worsening of one of them could set off a vicious circle leading to severe financial turmoil and a renewed global recession for 2012-2013," the report said.

The report outlines several policy directions that could avoid a double-dip recession, including the optimal design of fiscal policies to stimulate more direct job creation and investment in infrastructure, energy efficiency and sustainable energy supply, stronger financial safety nets, better coordination between fiscal and monetary policies, as well as providing sufficient support to developing countries for addressing the fallout from the crisis.