Pollster John Zogby was the first to say that the election was Kerry's to lose, way back in April. Of course, there are reasons why Zogby would be pulling for Kerry: they're both on the left-hand side of the aisle, and they both prefer dictatorial status quo over liberating and reforming the Middle East.

Pollster John Zogby surprised the political world back in April with a long-range prediction that John Kerry would defeat George W. Bush for president. On Monday this week, Zogby told me, he changed his mind. He now thinks the president is more likely to be re-elected because he has reinforced support from his base, including married white women.

That conclusion would be a surprise for frantically nervous Republicans and cautiously upbeat Democrats entering the campaign's final days. In fact, nobody, including Zogby and all the other polltakers, can be sure who will win this election. Yet, it is clear that President Bush's strategists have succeeded in solidifying his base to a degree that makes it much harder to defeat him next Tuesday.

If Zogby now thinks President Bush will win, he just may do so decisively. And he may very well have some coattails behind him. As Jayson of PoliPundit notes via this remarkable quote:

"No one with any [political] knowledge . . . . would believe the assumptions made by Zogby."

George Bush?

No.

Ken Mehlman?

Uh, no.

Ann Coulter, Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity?

No, nope, and no.

That was Dan Pfeiffer, the campaign spokesman for Tom Daschle, lashing out at Zogby, for the latter’s most recent poll, in which Congressman Thune was said to be leading, by 2.5 percentage points, with less than seven percent undecided.