GOP election victories likely mean more gridlock, posturing

This
month's midterm elections represented a political windfall for
Republicans, and many right-wingers see the victories as a mandate
for smaller government and a public rejection of the Obama
administration. What the GOP does with its control of the House
remains to be seen, but, says former State Rep. Tom Brinkman Jr.,
it’s fortunate for conservatives that Republicans didn’t win the
Senate as well.

“I
think the best thing that happened for Republicans, from a political
position, is that they did not win the Senate,” Brinkman says.

One
of the leaders of the Coalition Opposed to Additional Spending and
Taxes (COAST), Brinkman says in 1994, when Republicans won both the
Senate and the House, President Bill Clinton triangulated the two
houses against one another to the Democrats' advantage.

“But
if (U.S. Rep. John) Boehner does it right, he can triangulate them
(the Democratic Senate and president),” Brinkman adds. “The odd
man out has a tremendous amount of power.”

Brinkman
expects that Boehner, who will be Speaker of the House once the 112th
Congress takes office on Jan. 3, won't use his position to garner his
district special earmarks. He says Boehner, unlike many of his fellow
representatives, is committed to opposing pork barrel politics.

Fulfilling the conservative agenda

Gene
Beaupre, director for government relations at Xavier University, says
U.S. Sen.-elect Rob Portman, whose impressive resume includes serving
in two cabinet positions under George W. Bush — as U. S. trade
representative and director of the Office of Management and Budget —
has earned a reputation as an approachable and diplomatic politician.

“I
don’t think you can underestimate the key role that a freshman Sen.
Portman will play,” Beaupre says. “I don’t think there is
another U.S. senator that has been elected with his credentials.
Internationally, he’s got contacts all over the world.”

The
next two years will likely be marked by gridlock and preparations for
the 2012 presidential campaign, which Beaupre says began three to
four months before the 2010 elections.

As
for Congress, the public agenda is at least ostensibly one of fiscal
conservatism.

“I
don’t think anybody will vote on an issue that can be interpreted
as a fiscally conservative issue without thinking about that
reality,” Beaupre says, who went on to imagine the machinations of
a congressman’s mind: “‘Every time I put my card in to vote, I
think about how the opposition is going to use this vote against me.’
They’re never far from the next election.”

Steve
Chabot (pictured), who was elected to represent Ohio's 1st Congressional District after being ousted in 2008, certainly must
feel that he has a mandate to pursue a conservative agenda, Beaupre
adds.

“The
mantra going through the Republican Party right now is that they’re
happy being the party of ‘no,’” Beaupre says. “I’d be
asking, ‘Is that enough?’”

And Beaupre says Boehner has undergone a metamorphosis in the past two years.

He
is most comfortable in the caucus rooms and in the back of the House
chamber,” Beaupre says. “He is a master of that. What changed
somewhere short of two years ago is that he really became an outfront
spokesperson for the party. He sought the microphone. Part of being
Speaker is to have a platform, and he has a big one.”

A
major task for the Republicans and Boehner, he adds, will be to work
to disassemble the health care legislation piece by piece, seeking
vulnerable components of what he calls “a hugely complex piece of
legislation. ... You can’t just burn the whole thing down.”

Locally,
Chris Monzel’s election to the Hamilton County Board of
Commissioners will be a move toward a fiscally conservative, smaller
government agenda, meaning lots of cuts, Beaupre says.

“He’ll
see opportunities and vote according to that flag,” he says. “The
(new) Republican majority will exercise a lot of power. The challenge
will be to execute that conservative fiscal agenda and not step on
their constituents. Somehow or another they’ve got to keep their
conservative constituents happy and still have a black budget, not a
red budget. I don’t think it’s going to be a fun time.”

Redrawing the battle lines

This
was also the year of the U.S. Census, which means redistricting will
begin in the New Year. Nationally, 19 state houses, including Ohio,
switched from Democratic to GOP control in the last elections. And
Ohio stands to lose at least one and possibly two congressional seats
due to reapportionment.

No
one would speak for the record about any specifics on how Ohio’s
lines might change, but a Google News search on the topic reveals
some buzz about the possibility of the Republicans dropping Jean
Schmidt’s district and splitting it between Chabot and Boehner.

National
Journal notes that
in Ohio “there are too few Democratic-held districts to effectively
slice them up in a way that eliminates two seats while maintaining
Republican advantages in the districts the GOP holds. … The safer
alternative could be to actually eliminate a Republican backbencher —
Rep. Jean Schmidt (R-Ohio) and Reps.-elect Bill Johnson (R) and Bob
Gibbs (R) are the most frequently-mentioned names.”

Dan
LaBotz, who ran as a Socialist in the race for the U.S. Senate seat
that Portman won, describes Schmidt as a loose cannon with a weak
hold on her district. Whatever happens, she’ll be interesting to
watch, he says.

As
for the Tea Party influence in the Republican win, LaBotz says the
elections of typical conservatives like Chabot “shows there’s
something fraudulent about the Tea Party and their endorsements.
Chabot is not a right-wing radical. He’s just a conservative
Republican.”

The elections of so many Republicans throughout the nation says less
about the Republicans than it does about Democrats, LaBotz says.

“Perhaps
the Democrats could have rallied, but they failed on all counts,”
he says. “The corporations dominate both of the two parties. And
it’s very clear that the Republicans and the Democrats are going
after Social Security and Medicaid and the rest of the social safety
net with scissors.”