12 January 2006 Edition

Netanyahu victory bad for Palestinians

Palestinian elections

Turmoil and disruption ahead of polls

Political uncertainty as Sharon critical

As Palestinian politicians try to campaign under occupation in advance of a
general election on 25 January, the Israeli state faces its own
difficulties. First was the decision of new Labour leader, Amir Peretz, to
abandon the coalition headed by the right-wing Likud. Then, came the
announcement of Likud leader and Israeli Prime Minister, Ariel Sharon, that
he would lead a new centre-right political party called Kadima, which
immediately topped opinion polls. Then, on 18 December, Sharon suffered a
minor stroke. His worsening health since has brought political uncertainty
to the region. While medical bulletins indicated a slight improvement in
Sharon's survival chances, he remains critical.

The newly-created Kadima was widely expected to win Israel's election on 28
March, and as Sharon lies in intensive care, it seems the party could still
make it. However, Sharon's forced retirement and failure to designate a
successor, has caused the first divisions in the new grouping. The rules of
the party authorised Sharon only to make key decisions, including drawing up
a candidate list for elections. The rules also fail to detail a mechanism
for choosing replacement for the leader.

Divisions in

new party

The divisions are between those supporting Ehud Olmert (60), acting Israeli
Prime Minister and Sharon's closest ally, and former Labour Prime Minister,
Shimon Peres (82), Israel's elder statesman and Nobel Peace Laureate. As
senior Kadima members were announcing support for Olmert, Peres remained
silent. Others within the party, like Justice Minister Tzipi Livni, whose
popularity among Israelis surpasses that of Olmert, could be also considered
a candidate to the leadership.

Meanwhile Israel's traditional parties, Likud and Labour, are trying to
position themselves in the new political landscape. There is speculation
that Labour representatives approached Peres to persuade him to come back to
his old party as deputy leader to Amir Peretz, who assumed the Labour
leadership in November 2005 in a surprise victory over Peres.

Born in Morocco in 1953, Peretz became the first Sephardi Jew — of
Mediterranean ascendancy —and trade union chief to head the traditionally
Ashkenazi (central and northern European ascendancy) — dominated party.
Peretz also lacks the military background that traditionally has fed into
Israel's political leadership. His first move as leader of the Labour Party
was to pull the party out of Mr Sharon's coalition government, precipitating
the national elections scheduled for March.

Likud will try to win back traditional votes that deflected to support
Sharon's new party. Likud's leader, Binyamin Netanyahu, 56, was for years
Sharon's main political rival within the right-wing party. Articulate,
ambitious and a masterful communicator, he came back to the helm of the
party following Sharon's departure at the end of last year. He is staunchly
opposed to any kind of Peace Process with Palestinian people and the
recognition of the rights of the Palestinian nation. An election victory for
Netanyahu would be the worst result from a Palestinian point of view. He has
already shown his disregard for any national or international support for a
political arrangement involving the recognition of Palestinian aspirations.

Olmert, who once backed Jewish settlement-building in the West Bank and
Gaza, now believes Israel can only secure its future as a democratic state
with a Jewish majority by withdrawing from parts of the West Bank.

Despise Israel's announcement that allow Palestinians to campaign in East
Jerusalem for the election on 25 January, Israeli police stopped Hanan
Ashrawi, from the Third Way Party, and Mustafa Barghouti, standing as an
independent, from canvassing on 3 January, the first day of campaigning. The
candidates were told no Palestinian political activity was allowed in the
area, under Israeli law. Israel also warned it would ban Palestinians in
East Jerusalem from voting if Hamas took part in the poll. Hamas members
remain barred from campaigning in the city. Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas
said he would postpone polls if East Jerusalem could not vote.