The
main theories as to why the Tu-154 crashed off Sochi’s coast do not
include a terrorist act, Russian Transport Minister Maksim Sokolov
said.

According
to Sokolov, a “technical
problem or piloting error” could
have led to the disaster.

“Today,
the main theories do not include terrorism, so we assume that either
technical problems or a piloting error may have been the cause. But I
stress that only an investigation, along with a special technical
Ministry of Defense committee will tell us for sure,” the
minister said at a briefing.

The
Tu-154 was initially supposed to refuel in the city of Mozdok in
North Ossetia, but due to bad weather the plane was redirected to the
airport in Adler, a Black Sea resort, “therefore,
nobody knew beforehand that the plane would refuel at the airport in
Sochi,” a
security source told TASS.

After
arriving in Adler, “only
two border guards and one customs officer came onboard, and only one
navigator shortly left the plane to control refueling,” the
source dded.

The
Tu-154 transport plane had 92 people on board, including 84
passengers and eight crew members. It went missing over the Black Sea
shortly after refueling at an airport near Sochi. Most of the
passengers on board were members of the Alexandrov Ensemble, the
official choir of the Russian Armed Forces.

They
were traveling from Moscow to the Russian military base in Khmeimim
near Latakia, Syria, to take part in a Christmas celebration with the
troops deployed there. The head of the choir, conductor, and composer
Valery Khalilov, was also onboard.

The
passenger list released by the Defense Ministry on Saturday also
includes Elizaveta Glinka, a revered charity activist and
humanitarian worker best known by her nickname “Doctor Liza.”

Some
3,500 people are currently working in three shifts in the rescue
operations in the area of the Tu-154 plane crash in Sochi.

Perhaps the official version should not be taken at face value? If I remember correctly they said something similar after the crash of the plane in Sharm-el-Sheikh.Via VK

12.26.16.
Material from the military analyst Boris Rozhina.

"The
terrorist attack probability. There were entries from webcams in the
Sochi embankment, which recorded a bright flash in the sky off the
coast, at about the same time when the connection was lost with the
Tu-154.

On
the subject of a terrorist attack probability.

Major
Air Force instructor pilot Sergey Krasnopyorov:

-
What could cause a crash of the liner, do you think?

-
This is just say "black box" that will raise with this
liner. But, as you say, version - pilot error and failure of
technology - this is the real reason, as always happens in such
cases. But it's too suspicious that the aircraft after take-off in
the climb, it is just a few tens of minutes, it disappears from radar
screens.

-
Who made it clear that it happened in the seventh minute, when
climbing or when turning, apparently, over the Black Sea.

-
This means that the motor is running correctly, the fuel was normal.
If it had happened on the rise, the reason could be a fuel. The
situation may be similar to the tragedy in Sharm el-Sheikh, there is
also after takeoff, it was not long.

-
Do you mean the version of the attack?

-
Of course. That is very strange, the plane on takeoff falls very
rare, especially in this class. Tu-154 has three engines, it is very
reliable. With them I was flying as a passenger myself very often.

-
Why is the fault of the aircraft you are considering? After all, the
Tu-154 - the plane is far from new.

-
Yes, but they are very reliable. I can consider the aircraft
structure from the point of view of the pilot, and believe me, that
is connected with the management of the aircraft, there are so
reliable control system is, not as it is now electronic, and have
rope backup systems, including aircraft control systems, that is, in
case of failure of one system , enter the other. Given the experience
of the pilots who fly these planes now, still very strange to me that
the situation that was only the seventh minute after takeoff. I
understand that the aircraft took off from our airport, and it should
also be an electronic monitoring system, so that it could not be that
someone to it flew up, into something he could crash.

-
Initially reported that he just lost the signal from the radar
screen, but the plane showed no distress signals.

-
It is said that the plane, as in Sharm el-Sheikh, immediately lost
speed and fell just snap into position, that is uncontrolled. In this
case, the pilot just at such an overload, which in this case happens,
not only did not report to the dispatcher, but also include the
distress signal was not able to. Imagine a ship starts to rotate
heavily. So I think there was an aircraft destruction, as it was in
Sharm el-Sheikh, where the speed he was first 780 km / h and then
abruptly began to 170 km / h, and the loss of altitude of 1000 m. Now
we have to see the radar, just as fall speed. That is, the plane
could plan and take the water. Recently there was a case with the
Tu-154, when people have saved 37 people. The pilots then able to put
the liner on the unfamiliar field with a strong wind, a strong
blizzard, and they have saved almost all people.

In
this situation, the weather conditions were simple, if something was
wrong with the aircraft, with an engine, he would have just turned
around, and began to plan towards the airfield, to the villages in
the coastal zone. Let the plane would fall, but the pilots and the
crew and the passengers would be alive, you know? And then a sharp
fall, it happens in the case when something unintended happened,
something exploded, something has fallen off. As a rule, can only
fall off the tail of the aircraft. But in all other cases, the pilot
could safely transmit information, including a distress signal, but
this did not happen. So something had such an unintended, sudden in
the seventh minute of the flight. So, on the crew I can not sin, and
the technique is not so sharp breaks.

-
Another "Interfax" reports citing its sources, that the
expansion of the wreckage of the aircraft that crashed near Sochi was
about 15 km. As these data will affect all in the version?

-
Separation of fragments with such speed, and the speed he had in the
set order of 600-700 km / h, are already there it goes again, he may
well be at a distance. But if a plane crashes, then this would be no
separation of fragments, believe me. The plane fell apart, just
collapsed, then exploded, then somewhere someone gave suitcase,
considering that it was a flight to Syria, and flew the musicians of
the ensemble, could something to carry with these musical
instruments, someone that -That could enclose. Believe me, this is
the dispersal of fragments only when the aircraft destroyed in the
air. He just blows up and all. And when the plane just crashes, it
turns oil slick, and then float part. The plane, if it falls, dives
into the water, simply disappears, it is found after some time. And
then even found a man already, which is already in the coastal area
affected by the debris. This suggests that the debris fell to the
ground in a disorderly fall, then it exploded in the air.

President
of the association of veterans of "Alpha" Sergey Goncharov.

-
With high probability I can say that it was not a terrorist attack,
for several reasons - said President Sergey Goncharov
counterterrorism division veterans association "Alpha". -
First. This plane, which serves the Department of Defense, and,
believe me, the discipline in the Ministry of Defense is still quite
serious, and the people who serve the data flight, they checked
people naturally have all forms of tolerance, in order to do this
job.

Second.
On this plane flying people, our comrades who are almost all knew
each other, and strangers, as I understand it, no one in this plane
is not tucked. And the luggage, which was there, of course, be
checked precisely those people who flew in this plane.

Third.
The plane, as I understand, not so long was in the air, the water
area of the sea gives the opportunity, if it was an explosion or some
flash, you probably would have appeared witnesses who could see it,
or, at least, can it fix . And the last. The wreckage of the aircraft
have already been discovered, so they are not scattered so far from
each other, as happens with some ...

-
One and a half kilometer distance to the sea is, as you know, quite
small. That's all gives me reason to say that we should be inclined,
as I understand it, to versions or pilot error, or that refueling,
which took place are not relevant any criteria. In any case, it is
necessary to express my condolences to all the victims.
Unfortunately, this tragedy saddened our holiday days. But in any
case, I think, is now the Ministry of Defence will deal carefully and
put the point of the i. The only thing that confuses me, why the crew
was unable to provide any information to dispatchers. Here is a fact
for which I can not answer, I think, to answer the investigation.

-
Sergey, must have been in a tragic world practice of similar events.
And why the crew, if you try to understand now on analogies to the
parallels, could not do the first thing that probably makes every
pilot knows when the situation goes beyond the usual standard, - to
submit a distress signal? For example, other situations may explain
how events can develop, why could this happen?

-
If we are talking to you about a terrorist attack, when an explosion
on board the plane or in the luggage compartment immediately lost
communication system, and technically the captain can not give any
information to the dispatcher. Apparently, if there was some
technical fault, any technical problem, which is not allowed to
contact the crew with dispatchers (I repeat, it is a problem that
will be dealt with after the lift debris) ... If this was a terrorist
attack, at the moment in any case would be indirect evidence of what
happened on the plane, in particular, a flash, an explosion, or at
least we would have some new, though subjective or indirect hints
that the plane was blown up and it crashed in the air with the help
of the explosion.

From
official sources:

"Previously,
during the climb crew experienced a technical malfunction of a
critical nature, which led to a catastrophe", - said the source
of "Interfax" in the emergency services.

As
a source told Pravda.ru in the operational headquarters, "according
to preliminary data until the situation is as follows. The pilot and
crew, and if Tu-154 magnified it, were professional, they were not
flying accidents - all pretty sure that this is not the human factor.
Captain pros navigator participated in planting "somersault"
Tu-154.

This
is not a terrorist act, too, with a probability close to unity - the
aircraft is serviced, controlled in a special area, police Sochi
airport hard since the time of the Olympics. Weather conditions,
shall we say, not the best, was closed yesterday for the weather
Simferopol and Sochi was spare, but they still had flight. Unless, of
course, the liner has not got in accident resulting sudden tornado.
Or a flock of birds, which is "stopped up" all the engines
simultaneously on the rise, at the time of full thrust - there
ornitopark ryadom.Veroyatnee just a technical failure, and so
instantaneous and critical, such as a stabilizer switch to dive in
Rostov, that the crew did not manage it either to work or to report.
Because even the failure of two engines on the Tu-154 does not kill
the crew anyway to put the liner on the water.

And
stupid when they talk about the old plane about "it is already
banned." He was not banned, and put out of use by commercial
airlines, because it consumes a lot of fuel well, the noise exceeds
the norms, and indeed his domestic situation can not be compared with
"Boeing" and "Airbus". The plane is not "old",
it has an airworthy condition - he is either unfit to fly or not. In
the US, won "Douglases" 50-60 years letayut.Ya say more
"black boxes" - parametric lotsirovany recorders already,
they will raise with experts bathyscaphe. All the debris and bodies,
of course, also be raised -. 70 meters deep now available " What
happened - the undoubted tragedy. The reasons will understand, as the
investigation is taken under very tight control on the highest level.
For more information, give and decoding of the black boxes. Now it
began to raise the bodies of the dead. According to Tass, noon, was
found and picked up four bodies.

In
Sochi, built and operates the operational headquarters for the
reception of relatives of victims of aircraft passengers. In Sochi
airport duty brigades of psychological and psychiatric care. The
mayor held an emergency meeting of the Commission for Emergency
Situations. "The correspondent of" Kommersant "in the
Krasnodar Territory reports that local residents in the disaster
point not seen the flash and heard the explosion," - the press
notes.

Also,
sources Politonline.ru in the Russian FSB explained why being tested
all the approaches to the liner, serving it and engaged in technical
training. "Version of the attack is not a priority, but it
should also be worked out Yes, FSB checks all exposed to the lost
overboard, otsmatrivat recording, conducted surveys -. To exclude
version, not because it is" secretly investigating. "

Test
Pilot, Russian hero, Anatoly Knyshov:

-
Tu-154 is quite reliable aircraft that is operated not only in the
Ministry of defense, but also in civil aviation He has proved its
reliability, comfort what this board were military experts, he says..
that the aircraft was fully prepared because before each flight
passes test -. this type of aircraft, it has a certain tolerance, the
airworthiness certification.

what
happened ... everything can be in the air, but after takeoff when the
engine runs on takeoff mode, and the crew have no information about
any failures of individual systems or engines, otherwise, if such
information would, according to the instructions to the pilot turned
around, landed at the airport of departure. In this situation, we can
say that, obviously, something is still on board were. Because just
as the planes do not fall, do not sit down emergency. But why the
crew did not report the information about what happened to him, it is
also a question.

-
What are the options for complete failure of the systems on board?

-
One of the options - a rejection of three engines. But in any case,
the crew informed the control room service, informs the Ministry of
Defence of one reason or another. In this situation, in my view, a
sharp loss of communication, abrupt depressurization of the aircraft
led to the fact that the crew could not, did not have time to report
the reason that they have on board occurred.

-
Anatoly, now, when they say that the board was refueling in Sochi,
could the poor quality fuels cause a state of emergency? Or now it is
rather an exception to the rule?

-
When there is refueled at any airport on the territory of the Russian
Federation and abroad, the crew and the gang, which serves (and I
think this board is required to the technical team that serves this
type of aircraft), they will check the passport of fuel type , its
characteristics and shoot even before filling the so-called fuel
sample. Therefore, to say that this is the cause of low-quality fuel,
I can not yet, but the Commission may determine, they are sure to
take the place of the crash test (remaining fuel in any case where
something will be). They will be able to learn and quality of fuel,
and the status of systems, and crew availability.

Because in any
case, if it was of poor quality fuel, it can not be had at the same
time the refusal of three engines, which could lead to such a
catastrophe. The reason for the explosive character. There is a sound
alarm, warning light, which warns the crew about this or that
problem. This is a warning not to work. Because the prevention work
for the crew, gives information with a view to the crew competently
and correctly carried out the recommendations that they have worked
in the ground conditions. It's sad that this is happening with our
colleagues, namely from the Ministry of Defence, it is with those who
went there in the hot spot, which could support our troops before the
New Year. It is a tragedy that we all experience.

-
Now searches are conducted. In particular it was reported that the
search for the aircraft are 7 ships, joined the search for the Mi-8
helicopter of the Sochi airport in the Black Sea. But there was an
information that a possible point where the plane crashed, is in the
mountains. Can you explain why now such conflicting information
coming from?

-
Any aircraft that takes off, followed by the dispatching service
locators and help the crew to build up the exit path to the route. If
they are somewhere shy, manager says you dodge. Because it is on this
air route, possibly several types of aircraft - on the opposite
direction, in the same direction. And dispatching service monitors
and responds to some extent for the safety of a finding on this
route. But even if the dispatching service locators could not see
where the label of this type of aircraft ... Because each controller
display shows the type of aircraft and its call sign. And with the
loss of the label immediately given command search service (in this
case the helicopters, which are now produced in the search area of
possible failure labels). And the situation in the mountains can be
such that they fell below the detection one.

-
And what may be the reason for such behavior of the crew?

-
It could be the explosive nature of the aircraft itself, ie explosion
could occur, and no one could tell - or correspondents, who were
there, neither the crew. Nothing else here I can not imagine. "

1 comment:

A Tu-154 is of the same vintage as Boeing 727 jetliners are, which are still used by various foreign airlines and air-cargo operators worldwide. Even older Boeing 707 and Douglas DC-8 aircraft are still used by air cargo operators and occasionally in charter service too. As-long as the aircraft in-question had been well-maintained I doubt that a catastrophic structural failure would be the cause of the crash.

The problem could have been a catastrophic engine failure that ripped-open fuel lines and led to an explosion, or it could have perhaps been that one of the wing fuel caps was not properly-secured and jet fuel then reached the engine, causing an explosion in the wing. I wonder if the wrong fuel was used, as using gasoline rather than jet fuel would rapidly cause an engine runaway and then a big explosion on departure and climb-out too.

Could it have been a bomb or a missile? Possibly. There is still a lot of anger at Russia and Syria over their recent victory in Aleppo, in Ukraine over Crimea and Eastern Ukraine, as well as over the recent Security Council condemnation of Israeli settlement building too. Guess we will have to wait until enough wreckage is recovered in order to know what exactly brought the plane down.

A friend of mine commented earlier today that "This is such a tragedy, they are brilliant ambassadors of song". Let's hope that if this aircraft was brought down by a terrorist act that those guilty are caught and held responsible for their actions.