What will be different following the Coronavirus?

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LE

Have a like for the general sentiments but as far as those casualty figures go, nationally they will be a statistical blip. Average UK deaths each year are around 600k. When you factor in that a lot of the COVID-19 deaths would be likely to die relatively soon anyway the number of deaths afterwards will probably experience a significant drop.

It will be important but in terms of long-term population change it probably won't make much of a difference in a decade.

Especially as there's been a provable drop in other deaths from the self isolation tactics, less car journeys, less car crashes, far better hygiene, less flu and other transmitable disease deaths etc...

LE

On that note, this might encourage a bit more awareness of statistics and percentages in a general sense. A lot of people I spoke to several weeks ago seemed shocked when I pointed out if 0.1% of the population died that would be almost 70 thousand people. Close to 1% of the population die every year.

Opinionated gobshite and playing at statistics - definitely not a COVID-19 expert

Well I can't do you next year but here is the weekly death toll for England and Wales (all causes) from January to 5th March. The red line is the long term average and the blue line is 2020. The interval on the Y-axis is 1000s and it is weeks on the x-axis. The number of deaths we have had, to date, from CoVid 19 is 580.

The Swedes have adopted a completely different policy (a bit like contain) and they have had 71 deaths and their uptick started a week before ours.

Office of National Statistics.

The trap we've fallen into is to believe that a thousand incompetents properly organized can do the job of a few dozen outstanding people.

LE

Oh, I absolutely agree. The thing is that I never lost my interest in medical matters just because I left the British Army. I've kept myself au fait with all the latest developments in general medical treatments over the years and the basic anatomy of humans hasn't changed in all that time.

I've no idea what I'll actually be doing, but it's worthwhile to remember that there will still be the usual number of accidents etc in addition to having to treat patients with the virus. Since I have the basic medical skills (albeit a bit "rusty" as you correctly point out), I'm sure that I can do a lot to free up other personnel to help in treating the virus patients. Anyway, I have to show up at the dock on Friday afternoon, when I'll, presumably, find out where I'll be sent and what I'll be doing. I'm looking forward to it, actually.

That is a really good point that I hadn't even considered. Front-loading deaths in Q1 & 2 will artificially suppress the death rate in Q3 & 4. Crikey, this is a grand time for smart economists and statisticians.

LE

Have a like for the general sentiments but as far as those casualty figures go, nationally they will be a statistical blip. Average UK deaths each year are around 600k. When you factor in that a lot of the COVID-19 deaths would be likely to die relatively soon anyway the number of deaths afterwards will probably experience a significant drop.

It will be important but in terms of long-term population change it probably won't make much of a difference in a decade.

Actually, COVID 19 will just accelerate deaths and death figures , so the deaths that would already happen, would happen sooner, and next year's expected deaths will happen this year. It will be more than a blip

LE

Actually, COVID 19 will just accelerate deaths and death figures , so the deaths that would already happen, would happen sooner, and next year's expected deaths will happen this year. It will be more than a blip

I'm not sure about that. If you assume that roughly the same numbers die each year (roughly 600k) then those people would have died this year anyway.

COVID-19 might bump off an extra 100k on top of that (numbers picked off the top of my head), the majority of which will be older and with health conditions but who would otherwise have survived. Obviously not all of them would have died next year but a majority probably would have done, say 75% (again at random). That's just decreased the deaths next year by 75k which will be significant (ie. not down to chance). Year 3 will also experience a drop in deaths compared to what would have happened without the coronavirus but that will be small enough to get lost in the noise.

I think anyway, as I have shown recently I am not a statistician, this is just me working from logic.

Opinionated gobshite and playing at statistics - definitely not a COVID-19 expert

LE

I'm not sure about that. If you assume that roughly the same numbers die each year (roughly 600k) then those people would have died this year anyway.

COVID-19 might bump off an extra 100k on top of that (numbers picked off the top of my head), the majority of which will be older and with health conditions but who would otherwise have survived. Obviously not all of them would have died next year but a majority probably would have done, say 75% (again at random). That's just decreased the deaths next year by 75k which will be significant (ie. not down to chance). Year 3 will also experience a drop in deaths compared to what would have happened without the coronavirus but that will be small enough to get lost in the noise.

I think anyway, as I have shown recently I am not a statistician, this is just me working from logic.

Apart from population growth there's the fact that the chance is not evenly distributed throughout the population. The most dangerous years of your life in the UK are the first (infant mortality is still an issue) but after that your chance of making it to 50+ are pretty good. The chance of death ramps up noticeably after that and by 80 it's really quite high. The data is available from the ONS but between 2000 and 2018 on average the over 80s had more deaths than everyone under 70 combined.

Opinionated gobshite and playing at statistics - definitely not a COVID-19 expert

LE

Apart from population growth there's the fact that the chance is not evenly distributed throughout the population. The most dangerous years of your life in the UK are the first (infant mortality is still an issue) but after that your chance of making it to 50+ are pretty good. The chance of death ramps up noticeably after that and by 80 it's really quite high. The data is available from the ONS but between 2000 and 2018 on average the over 80s had more deaths than everyone under 70 combined.

I know, that's why I twice used the word 'average'. In my first year, I may have a 3% chance of dying, which then probably levels out to something like 0.05% by the time I leave primary school. Generally this will remain flattish (Depending on my particular circumstances) until I become older than 50, when the algebraic description of the characteristic takes it rapidly upwards. There are a lot of individual influencing factors, but the average age on death, given that 1% of the population dies each year, would be 100 years old. Some die young, some die old, but the average or trend remains constant.

Then again there is the old joke, that nobody wants to live to 100, apart from most 99 year olds.

LE

I know, that's why I twice used the word 'average'. In my first year, I may have a 3% chance of dying, which then probably levels out to something like 0.05% by the time I leave primary school. Generally this will remain flattish (Depending on my particular circumstances) until I become older than 50, when the algebraic description of the characteristic takes it rapidly upwards. There are a lot of individual influencing factors, but the average age on death, given that 1% of the population dies each year, would be 100 years old. Some die young, some die old, but the average or trend remains constant.

The again there is the old joke, that nobody wants to live to 100, apart from most 99 year olds.

LE

I tried. There's a lot of data tables where they have explained what each combination is but it's hard to keep track of all the abbreviations.

The graphs are a much better summary of the situation in my opinion. They are also very upfront in the conclusion that it's currently an educated guess and in a few months there should be much more robust data to refine predictions.

I see what you mean about the tables vs the graphs but they need to do that to explain why the curves have the shape they do.

Interesting that they believe that the impact from mass gatherings and school/universities is less that the in household and between houshold effects. The issue of regionally admininistering the lockdown may have some interesting implications.

LE

Getting a bit thredders now with the hagiography of NHS workers. Yes, they do a brilliant job with a shite top heavey management structure that eats away at their frontline capabilities but - there are now several overt attempts of nurses to "celebritise" themselves with their tearful offerings on social media-which are eagerly lapped up by an otherwise news-starved general media...the general public are going through a "must be seen to do something to help" stage - akin to the WW2 donate your garden railings to the war effort scam but-

and I'm more than happy to be corrected here-

The NHS has binned off many / most non-essential other items on their agenda during this so...what is the extra workload? Can somebody please explain to me why (some) nurses are now portraying their role as being like turning up for a shift in a FOB in Afghanistan? Yes, I know they will have many colleagues who are off sick / self-isolating because of this too - so do their paramedic colleagues. Unless I'm missing something though...I dont seem to see many ambulance crews / paramedics dripping all over social media about their plight.

I gather there was some big gesture of standing on your doorstep last night and clapping for the NHS? Why???
It's purely self-aggrandisement for the people doing so. "Look at me-doing my bit". I saw on my local FB page a rather embarrassing scene where a paramedic bird was essentially "doorstepped" as she left for work and some twat filmed it-her leaving in her car as the whole street clapped. Her face was beetroot and she looked embarrassed as hell.

I personally think the ones with the short straw in all this so far are the poor buggers who work in the supermarkets - they have to bear the brunt of all that is wrong with our society and...they are having just as much (if not more) exposure to those infected / potentially infected too.

I think all this "lets make heroes out of everybody" bollocks needs to stop right now.

We will look like North Korea in 2 years because - government will have bowed to media and popular opinion and-anyone who self-identified as a "key worker" will be given a medal.

I eagerly await having my neck wound back in with tactical use of facts, wit, logic and ad hominem

LE

Especially as there's been a provable drop in other deaths from the self isolation tactics, less car journeys, less car crashes, far better hygiene, less flu and other transmitable disease deaths etc...

From my point of view - those figures are also reflected in crime reports/ RTCs. Significant drop past few days but - "reports" numbers still stay around normal as the ones who normally have a "crime" of some sort to report are now model citizens and eagerly phoning up about their neighbour having a bbq or a cat from the other street being seen on theirs (I shit you not).

If we could just bin facebook, tell the general public that...yes..you can have a few more than 3 people in a family in one house at a time - and keep the rest of this "lockdown" ongoing then I reckon society would be pretty much on the tracks to being - tickety-boo!

(I jest-I realise many people are facing financial hardship because of this)...It has done wonders to seriously feck up the burglar lifestyle though.

I speak as a single mother & a junior doctor so you are morally obliged to agree with me, or at least be seen to agree with me to further your virtue signalling.