Politics Counts: Where Congress Is Competitive

U.S. House Democratic members participate in a walkout in protest of a vote on holding Attorney General Eric Holder in contempt of Congress last week.

For the past six months all the 2012 election attention has been focused on the presidential race. By most every accounting, the unfolding matchup between President Barack Obama and presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney is expected to be close.

But governance in Washington isn’t just about who occupies the White House – as any current or past occupant will tell you. The 535 people who work at the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue all play a big role in what gets done and how it gets done. And judging by recent data from The Wall Street Journal/NBC poll the fight for control of the Capitol is shaping up to be just as tight – and just as split.

Using the Patchwork Nation’s 12 county types, we broke the Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll into three broad categories: Core Democratic Counties, Core Republican Counties and Competitive Counties — and found the current divide within those categories is remarkable.

In Core Democratic Counties, those surveyed favor a Democratic-controlled Congress by 13 percentage points. That’s a bigger margin than those counties saw when the Democrats grabbed control of Congress in 2006. In Core Republican Counties, they favor a Republican-controlled Congress by 15 percentage points. That’s higher than the GOP margin of victory in those counties in 2010, when the Republicans regained control of the House.

Meanwhile, in the more centrist Competitive Counties there is currently no preference – people there don’t lean toward either party having control.

That’s a pretty sharp divide but it doesn’t cut straight down the middle. It holds some inherent advantages for the Democrats.

This current set of poll numbers, a rolling average of the last three monthly polls, shows some potentially important movement the Democrats’ way. The Competitive Counties went from favoring GOP control of Congress by a decent number – five percentage points in previous data (polls from February to May) – to being even in this latest batch of numbers (from April to June).

One of the county types that makes up that “Competitive” group is Patchwork Nation’s Immigration Nation type. Between the last set of data and this most recent set those counties went from favoring a GOP-controlled Congress by eight percentage points to favoring a Democratic-controlled Congress by four percentage points. That’s a 12-point swing, and it is largely why those Competitive Counties are even now.

Taken together, that’s a set of hopeful signs for the Democrats. But before House Democratic leaders start measuring the drapes for those leadership offices, there are a few very important caveats to consider.

First, and most obvious, July polls don’t win November elections. There’s a long way to go.

But perhaps most crucial are the subtle undercurrents in the electorate in 2012. Consider that surge in the Competitive Counties. If it really is being driven by movement in the Immigration Nation locales that could have heavy impacts in states like Arizona and New Mexico, Texas and Colorado, California and Washington, where there are a lot of those counties.

But look at that map above and you’ll notice a lot of places without that light blue of Immigration Nation.

Consider Ohio, Illinois, Pennsylvania and Michigan, where many of the Competitive Counties are Service Workers Centers, which still lean Republican. Or look throughout the South at states like the Carolinas, Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi, where the competitive counties are Minority Central communities that also lean toward the GOP.

But look at little deeper and there is movement within different communities around the country. That movement could play a role in the presidential race, flipping one state or another, but it’s impact on Congress could be much greater will likely make the outcome there harder to predict.

About Washington Wire

Washington Wire is one of the oldest standing features in American journalism. Since the Wire launched on Sept. 20, 1940, the Journal has offered readers an informal look at the capital. Now online, the Wire provides a succession of glimpses at what’s happening behind hot stories and warnings of what to watch for in the days ahead. The Wire is led by Reid J. Epstein, with contributions from the rest of the bureau. Washington Wire now also includes Think Tank, our home for outside analysis from policy and political thinkers.