MLBTR Mailbag

As part of our ongoing MLBTR Mailbag series, we’ve decided to begin branching off frequent topics of interest and expanding upon them at greater length than we’d normally spend in one post that answers four to six separate questions. This will be the first of several such posts to follow in the new format, and you can submit questions for consideration here via email: mlbtrmailbag@gmail.com.

Why would the Mets not non-tender Matt Harvey? Are 7.00-ERA pitchers with upside really that hard to find? Or is there an emotional/attachment thing going on? — Josh M.

The frustration that Mets fans feel with the performance of the former “Dark Knight” and Harvey’s own frustration (which he’s voiced on multiple occasions) are understandable. To borrow from Harvey’s own blunt self-evaluation, he’s been “terrible all the way around” in 2017 — his first season back from surgery to alleviate thoracic outlet syndrome last summer. That operation was the second major surgery in Harvey’s career, as he also had Tommy John surgery following the 2013 campaign.

The attrition rate following TOS surgery seems to be greater than after Tommy John surgery, and Harvey is one of the only pitchers in recent memory to have both operations in such close proximity. Viewed through that lens, this season’s 6.60 ERA through 88 2/3 innings perhaps shouldn’t be all that surprising. Harvey has been working with diminished velocity (though it’s been trending up lately) and has posted career-worst K/9 (6.5) and BB/9 (4.5) marks while averaging 2.03 HR/9. It has not, to put it mildly, been a very good season.

That said, it’s been just two years since Harvey came back from TJS to throw 189 1/3 innings in the regular season with a 2.71 ERA, 8.9 K/9, 1.8 BB/9 and a 46 percent ground-ball rate. Harvey further rose to the occasion with 26 2/3 innings of 3.04 ERA ball in the postseason (though Mets fans will forever debate Terry Collins’ decision to leave him in for the ninth inning of a Game 5 against the Royals). Simply put, from 2012-15, Harvey was one of the best young pitchers on the planet. Even his 2016 season, which ended with a disappointing 4.86 ERA and his eventual TOS procedure, featured solid K/BB numbers and a 3.47 FIP.

To the greater point here, it is indeed possible to find passable arms at bargain one-year rates in free agency. However, Harvey is in for at best a modest raise on this season’s $5.125MM salary. Looking back over the past few offseasons, the free agent starters that have signed one-year deals worth less than $6MM include: Clayton Richard, Jhoulys Chacin, Jered Weaver, Trevor Cahill, Tommy Milone, Jesse Chavez, Mat Latos, Tim Lincecum (mid-season in 2016), Henderson Alvarez, Brandon Beachy, Bud Norris and Aaron Harang. Weaver was 34 when he signed his deal (and retired partway through the 2017 season). One could argue that Lincecum or perhaps Beachy carried significant upside, but both were returning from serious injuries, were older than Harvey and were further removed from success than Harvey is now.

Last offseason, Derek Holland signed a one-year, $6MM contract with the White Sox after throwing a combined 203 innings from 2013-16. With all due respect to Holland, his upside isn’t on par with that of Harvey. Meanwhile, Tyson Ross also signed for one year and $6MM after undergoing his own TOS surgery. If Ross was able to find $6MM on the heels of a season he spent entirely on the DL — his lone appearance in 2016 came on Opening Day — that should be an indication that paying a younger Harvey at a roughly comparable rate isn’t exactly an overpay by market standards.

Moreover, if the 2017 season proved anything, it’s that the Mets need to stockpile as many reasonably priced arms and rotation depth options as possible. With injuries to Harvey, Steven Matz, Noah Syndergaard, Seth Lugo, Zack Wheeler and Robert Gsellman impacting the staff at various points throughout the season, it doesn’t seem prudent to be cutting ties with a fairly inexpensive young arm. If anything, the Mets will probably aim to bring in some low-cost veterans on minor league deals that could be stashed at Triple-A and emerge as big league options in 2018 should their injury issues persist.

If you have a question pertaining to the 2017-18 free agent market, offseason trades, or any other topic we’d typically cover here on MLBTR, let us know via email: mlbtrmailbag@gmail.com. We’ll be running a bit of a different format next week, though as usual, we can only get to a fraction of the submissions. Remember that you’re always welcome to get our take on topics of your choosing in the three weekly chats hosted at MLBTR (Tuesdays at 2pm CT with me, Wednesdays at 6:30pm CT with Jason Martinez and Thursdays at 2pm CT with Jeff Todd).

For the most recent edition(s) of the MLBTR Mailbag, MLBTR’s Jeff Todd fielded questions on the Cardinals’ search for a bat, whether the Pirates are at a crossroads, the heavily active August trade period and the Giants’ offseason.

We also published a second special edition hosted by Twins right-hander Trevor May, who has been contributing to MLBTR’s Players’ Perspective series while working his way back from Tommy John surgery. Trevor gave perspective into his rehab from a major surgery, the feeling of being traded (from Philadelphia to Minnesota in 2012), pitch counts/innings limits and much more.

Onto this week’s questions…

What do you think J.D. Martinez’s earning potential will be in free agency? Do the Diamondbacks have a real chance to resign JD and if not which teams do you think will hold the most interest? — John H.

The D-backs’ ability to re-sign Martinez is one of the single most popular topics in our MLBTR chats, the Mailbag and on Twitter. Considering the fact that he’s batted .289/.358/.732 with 24 homers in 212 plate appearances since being traded to Arizona, it’s not especially surprising to see Diamondbacks fans extremely interested in whether the team will be able to retain him.

Unfortunately for D-backs fans, I’m not sure how they’ll be able to reasonably afford Martinez beyond 2017. Arizona opened the 2017 season with a payroll just north of $100MM, and they already have about $60MM committed to Zack Greinke, Yasmany Tomas, Paul Goldschmidt and Jeff Mathis next season. That would seem to indicate that there’s some room, but Arizona has one of the most significant arbitration classes in recent history as well.

A deep postseason run could give the D-backs some extra financial help, the team inked a television contract worth more than a billion dollars back in 2015, and there’s still the matter of a new stadium, so it’s possible that there’s room for the payroll to advance. But, Martinez is probably looking at a minimum of a five-year deal in free agency — if not six years — at an average annual value that could land in the $23-26MM range. The D-backs would need an enormous payroll spike to realistically be able to retain Martinez.

The Snakes could try to shed some of Tomas’ contract to clear a bit of room, but doing so would very likely require paying a significant portion of the remaining contract. The team could also try to heavily backload a hypothetical Martinez contract, though that presents the possibility of paying more than $60MM annually to just Martinez and Greinke in the latter stages of their respective contracts. Frankly, I just don’t consider the situation all that likely.

As for other Martinez suitors, both the Cardinals and Giants will be looking for big bats to put in the heart of their order this winter. The Angels have been MLB’s worst team against left-handed pitching and have Josh Hamilton’s contract finally off the books, though they may not wish to celebrate by diving headfirst into another huge contract for an outfielder. The Dodgers have the money, of course, though this iteration of their front office has been more restrained in terms of spending. The Phillies have a virtually blank slate when it comes to long-term payroll, but they’d have to convince Martinez to join a club that doesn’t look ready to contend yet in 2018.

Watching the Orioles throughout the year it seems to be the same old need: pitching, pitching and more pitching. Who do you see as legitimate targets for the Orioles this offseason that they could go after to bolster one of the league’s worst starting rotations? — (a different) John H.

The Orioles are in a tough spot, as this winter will force them to ponder if they should trade franchise cornerstones like Zach Britton, Manny Machado and Adam Jones before they reach the open market next winter or keep the core together and make one more run with this group. It’s not entirely dissimilar to the position in which the Royals found themselves last winter, and my expectation is that the Orioles will go the same route the Royals did: make one more attempt and be prepared to sell in the summer if need be.

I don’t expect the O’s to be serious players at the very top of the starting pitching market — Yu Darvish, Jake Arrieta (been there, done that), Masahiro Tanaka (assuming he opts out) — but the second tier of starters will feature some names for the O’s to consider. Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb are both more in the Orioles’ price range, and Baltimore has shown a willingness to part with draft picks in the past in order to sign free agents. (Both Lynn and Cobb are qualifying offer candidates.) Of course, adding such pitchers will likely mean taking on commitments past the point that those veteran core players will have reached the open market (assuming none is extended).

There will also be no shortage of reclamation projects for the O’s to pursue. Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register has reported in the past that the O’s tried for Hector Santiago when he was with the Angels, and he’ll be available and affordable coming off an injury-wrecked season in Minnesota. Tyson Ross, Francisco Liriano and longtime rotation fixture Chris Tillman are all rebound candidates likely looking at one-year deals in free agency.

Ultimately, though, the Orioles’ best chance at dramatically improving the rotation is to get better results out of Kevin Gausman and more consistency out of Dylan Bundy in 2018.

Any chance the Cardinals re-sign Juan Nicasio for next year? What kind of contract is he probably going to want? — Steve V.

We received multiple questions about the Cardinals retaining Nicasio this week as well. In short, I’d be surprised if the Cardinals didn’t make an effort to keep him. St. Louis knows it’ll be without Trevor Rosenthal in 2018 following Tommy John surgery. Seung-hwan Oh and Zach Duke are free agents. Brett Cecil has struggled and Kevin Siegrist is already gone. The bullpen is going to be a point of focus for president of baseball operations John Mozeliak, GM Mike Girsch and the rest of the Cardinals’ front office. They already demonstrated that they like Nicasio enough to trade a mid-range prospect for four weeks of his services.

Over the past three seasons, Nicasio has solid overall numbers that are dragged down by sub-par performances as a starter. If you look at his body of work solely as a reliever — when he can throw at max effort in short stints and doesn’t need to face hitters multiple times in an appearance — he’s pitched to a 3.44 ERA with 10.3 K/9, 3.6 BB/9 and a 46 percent ground-ball rate. FIP is even more bullish at 2.83, while SIERA pegs him at 3.33.

Nicasio just turned 31, and with a solid three-year platform in the bullpen under his belt, I’d imagine he’ll enter free agency looking for a three-year deal. Joakim Soria, Ryan Madson, Shawn Kelley, Luke Gregerson, Tony Sipp, Zach Duke and Mike Dunn have all signed three year deals in the $15-25MM range in recent offseasons. Nicasio’s reps could try to surpass those marks and get closer to Darren O’Day’s four-year, $31MM pact, but that strikes me as a lofty goal. (Though I’d have said the same if asked about a four-year deal for Brett Cecil a year ago. Free agency can get weird.) A three-year deal comparable to those other contracts seems pretty readily attainable for Nicasio.

Not that the Phillies will get much in return, but what type of market could they have this winter for Cameron Rupp and Tommy Joseph? — Michael H.

Agreed that neither is going to bring them a huge return, though I think Rupp comes with quite a bit more value than Joseph. As a part-time/platoon catcher, teams could do far worse. He’s hitting .261/.387/.432 against lefties in 2017 and has a career .283/.365/.506 slash against them. He’s not a good framer, and he’s not as good at preventing steals as he once was (though some of that could be on an inexperienced Phillies rotation), but three arbitration years of a lefty-mashing catcher isn’t without value. The Rockies, Orioles, White Sox, A’s and Giants are among the teams that could conceivably poke around for backup catching help this winter.

As for Joseph, I just don’t see much in the way of interest. His power is way down (.248 ISO in 2016, .190 in 2017), his strikeouts are up and he’s not an above-average defender at first base — his only feasible position on the diamond. That’s not to say he couldn’t end up as a bench/platoon bat in an organization that happens to like him, but it’s hard to imagine a significant trade return.

This may seem elementary, but I’ve never gotten a decent answer, so I’m coming to you. What is the difference between “command” and “control”? Are they two words for the same thing? — Jude

As a general disclaimer, I’m not a scout nor will I pretend to be one. That said, the general difference is basically that “control” is the ability to consistently throw strikes — working ahead of hitters, limiting walks, etc. “Command,” meanwhile, is more about actually locating within (or around) the zone. Basically, being able to put the ball where the pitcher wants to with more consistency. You can be a great strike-thrower and have good control without necessarily having elite command. I tend to think of it similarly to the distinction between accuracy and precision.

Last week, we featured two editions of the MLBTR Mailbag: one from MLBTR’s Jeff Todd and a second special edition hosted by Twins right-hander Trevor May, who has been contributing to MLBTR’s Players’ Perspective series while working his way back from Tommy John surgery. Jeff fielded questions on the Cardinals’ search for a bat, whether the Pirates are at a crossroads, the heavily active August trade period and the Giants’ offseason. Meanwhile, Trevor gave perspective into his rehab from a major surgery, the feeling of being traded (from Philadelphia to Minnesota in 2012), pitch counts/innings limits and much more.

This week we’ll run another standard edition of the mailbag, so if you have questions on anything ranging from the playoff picture to postseason awards to the offseason free-agent/trade market, send us an email: mlbtrmailbag@gmail.com. Also, that you’re always welcome to get our take on topics of your choosing in the three weekly chats hosted at MLBTR (Tuesdays at 2pm CT with me, Wednesdays at 6:30pm CT with Jason Martinez and Thursdays at 2pm CT with Jeff Todd).

Thanks, as always for submitting your mailbag questions! If you haven’t already, be sure to check out this week’s special bonus mailbag, featuring Twins right-hander and MLBTR contributor Trevor May.

As always, you can join our writers to chat weekly: Tuesdays at 2pm CST with Steve Adams; Wednesdays at 6:30pm CST with Jason Martinez; and Thursdays at 2pm CST with yours truly.

On to the Q&A:

When the Cardinals go shopping this winter for a big bat, a closer and any other big ticket item, will there be legitimate answers via free agency?— Brandon B.

It’s going to be an interesting offseason for St. Louis, isn’t it? As Brandon rightly points out in his email, the club has quite an interesting group of young pitchers and also quite a few outfielders that seemingly warrant strong consideration for the MLB club. That said, I don’t expect many Cards fans feel like the club can just sit back and trust in the rising new talent — even if several of the youngsters have given cause for optimism.

It does seem like there’ll be some payroll space to work with, especially after the decision to ship out Mike Leake. I am not sure whether the team will tender Lance Lynn a qualifying offer, but regardless, I think the likelier scenario is that he enters the open market. Losing Trevor Rosenthal hurts, of course, but from the team’s perspective it is easier to take since the club won’t have to pay his 2018 salary and find a replacement. As things stand, the Cards have around $107MM on the books for next year, with arb salaries for Michael Wacha, Randal Grichuk and Tyler Lyons likely to add a manageable amount more. St. Louis opened with over $140MM on the books in each of the past two campaigns, so ought to be able to pursue a couple of impactful veterans via free agency or trade.

That brings us, finally, to the core of your question: are there options worth pursuing? I think the answer is clearly “yes”: while there really aren’t any youthful mega-stars available in free agency, there will be quite a few quality players on the market. Want a slugging first baseman? Lucas Duda, Logan Morrison, Yonder Alonso, Carlos Santana, and Eric Hosmer are all available, along with some other notable names. How about a corner outfielder? J.D. Martinez and, perhaps, Justin Upton lead the charge. Wade Davis and Greg Holland are the biggest names on the relief market. There are a variety of other talented players out there, including some infielders and notable starters.

Really, what it all comes down to is: what will the Cards prioritize? They could target a big-ticket player and then deal away excess players from there, or look to shop depth first and then go after the open market. Either way, it’s not obvious from the outside just where the team should look to improve, given that there’s already at least one (often more than one) plausible option at every spot around the diamond and in the rotation.

Is this season’s amazingly active August trade deadline going to become the norm? — Tim S.

It was a heck of a month, to be sure. And I think there were some one-off circumstances that drove it. On the American League side, with so many teams stuck in the middle, there wasn’t a ton of interest in moving assets in either direction. In the N.L., you had an opposite extreme, with the best teams holding such wide advantages that the relatively few chasing clubs didn’t have strong incentives to go wild.

In some regards, then, it just took a while longer for things to shake out, with many teams on both the buying and selling side being willing to exercise some patience. That was made possible, too, by the fact that there were some expensive, short-term veteran types that made for pretty easy August trade pieces: Jay Bruce, Tyler Clippard, Curtis Granderson, Rajai Davis, Duda, Grandal, etc. It’s not often we see quite that many players in that situation that are available and playing well.

So … weird year. On the other hand, there are some broader factors worth considering, too. Most generally, as I discussed a long while back on the now-defunct podcast, we’ve seen a steady shattering of molds in recent years. Whether due to the flush financial situation around the game or the new breed of front-office personnel, typical forms of transactions — in timing and structure — don’t really hold as much relevance. More money also means more flexibility, whether to hold onto expensive players (in hopes of a turnaround or to wait for a bigger return) or to go ahead and add salary later in the summer. The Mike Leake trade really seems exemplary of some of those factors. The new CBA could have impacted things as well: it reduced the importance of the qualifying offer (lowering the barrier to trading certain quality/non-superstar veteran rentals of the sort that we saw moved in August) and increased the need to acquire international signing money (which played a role in a few August deals).

I do think we should continue to expect the unexpected moving forward. Heck, the fact that teams were able to pull off so many notable deals this August may function to show it’s a viable path in the future. (Of course, the more players are held for the August trade market, the more likelihood we’ll see intermeddling arbitrage-seekers like the Phillies exercising their rights on the waiver wire.)

I get that it’s tough to be patient when expectations are high, but I honestly think some Pirates followers are a bit too eager to abandon ship. Those players that Paul mentions? They’re here now (or will be soon). The organization has other quality youngsters, too — don’t discount the importance of having affordable rotation depth — and doesn’t have any terrible contracts on the books.

That last point is critical. Every deal hasn’t been a great one, and it’s plenty arguable that the organization has been too restrained in going the extra mile financially, but boy have they avoided any disaster scenarios. All of the team’s commitments to veterans are relatively low in cost and were made to players that are still productive members of the roster.

So, I think it’s fair to say they have mostly kept the window open — even if they didn’t manage to take advantage in the past two seasons — and that it should stay open for a while longer. That’s not to say, though, that the team won’t consider some bold action this winter designed to keep the window open longer and to compete in 2018. In fact, I could certainly imagine the Bucs shopping both Andrew McCutchen and Gerrit Cole while also still looking for ways to improve the roster in the near term — though I also think it is likelier than anyone expected that Cutch enters the final season of his contract still in Pittsburgh.

Bottom line: payroll limitations are a fact of life for the franchise, as currently constituted. That is just plain going to come with some frustrations, especially as other recently rising teams have allowed their budgets to grow quite a bit as their play improves. But given those constraints, the roster is in remarkably good shape and can still produce a winner.

Haai MLBTR! Question from the Netherlands here! Do you think the Giants could have an outside shot at landing Profar to play left field? — Bas M.

At first, I thought “haai” was a cool Dutch greeting, but online translation guides suggest to me that it means “shark.” Which honestly just made me even more inclined to answer this question from the other side of the Atlantic. Thanks, Bas, for reading!

I have mentioned Profar a few times in recent chats. And he just came up on the site since the Rangers decided not to promote him in September — which, as I foolishly failed to notice at first, will keep him from reaching four full years of MLB service by season’s end. That means that any teams trading for him can control him for three more seasons at what ought to be pretty cheap rates. Since it’s arbitration eligibility, too, they are non-committed years, so it’s all upside.

Of course, with the Rangers declining to put Profar on the roster this month, it seems pretty clear they’ll look to trade him. He just hasn’t found a role there, they are all set at the positions he might play, and he’ll be out of options. The stage seems set for Texas to put their former top prospect on the block and choose the best offer that’s available.

Now, opposing teams aren’t going to go crazy in their offers. Profar has never hit much and has over 700 MLB plate appearances already. Plus, his major shoulder issues will remain something of a concern. All that said, this is a guy who is still just 24 years of age — younger than, say, Aaron Judge — and was not long ago considered a top-shelf prospect. He also carries a .287/.383/.428 slash with seven home runs and 43 walks against 33 strikeouts in 383 Triple-A plate appearances this year, so it’s not like the skills are totally gone.

Profar will have some appeal, though he’s not going to command the return he would have back when he was on the cover of Baseball America’s prospect handbook. But I don’t think it’s going to be in the outfield. There’s just no evidence that he’s going to be enough of an offensive force to merit significant playing time in left. While he could see action there in a utility capacity, the chief interest from other clubs will be in utilizing Profar in the middle infield.

It’s possible, I guess, to see the Giants having some interest in Profar as a utilityman/third baseman in the mold of Eduardo Nunez, though I expect San Francisco will be on the hunt for bigger bats. More likely suitors, in my view, would be (in alphabetical order, not by likelihood) the Blue Jays, Padres, Royals, and White Sox, with a few other clubs — the Rays, Marlins, Tigers, and Pirates, perhaps — also being hypothetical possibilities depending upon how they end up acting with regard to other players.

Thank you to everyone that sent over their questions. I had a really great time answering them all!

From Othar Z.:

What did it feel like when you learned that you were going to have Tommy John surgery?

Well, it felt bad. For a few big reasons.

You lose an entire year of your career. I was, and still am, at a point in my career that it’s important for me to prove that I’m here to stay. You can’t do that if you’re not pitching.

I had lost half of 2016 to a nagging injury that I couldn’t fully figure out until right at the end of the season. I spend 4 months in the winter working my butt off to get my back feeling good again, achieved that, only to get knocked down again with Tommy John. It’s like pulling yourself out of quicksand only to get slapped right back in.

I want to play. Not playing sucks infinitely more than playing.

But, my overarching theme: silver-linings. I get a year to get my body into amazing condition. I get to pursue some business interests that I might not of been able to during 162 games. I also get to spend a whole year with my new wife, something we haven’t been able to do once in our entire relationship. In essence, I plan to be better after this storm is over.

From Samuel S.:

Reflecting on the Ben Revere trade in 2012, when you were traded away as a prospect earning a minor league salary, how difficult was the transition process, on both a personal and professional level?

For me, not actually as difficult as you think. I was traded smack dab in the middle of the offseason, for one, so I had a ton of time to prepare for the next year. I hadn’t lined up housing for Spring Training yet, there was time to pack up and move, etc. I’m sure if it were during the season, the logistics alone would be a pain. Also, I was still going to be in Florida for Spring Training (both the Phillies and Twins are in the Grapefruit League). That kept some familiarity.

The biggest thing is learning and getting to know your new staff and teammates, the organization and the overall feel. It takes getting used to. BUT, if you’re traded somewhere, you know they really wanted you for some reason. It gives you a little boost going into your first competition with a new team.

Also, I had kind of seen it coming. The Phillies had made a trade every offseason I had been with them. I had been mentioned in just about every one of them. Just kind of did the math.

From Judy K.:

Do you think pitchers are being babied by most MLB organizations with all the pitch counts and innings limits?

This is a classic “better safe than sorry” situation. Like I said previously, Tommy John (and any shoulder surgery really) can take years away from a player and the organization that invested in them. As the science improves and causes get clearer and clearer, limits are going to become more prevalent. I think any decision that results in longevity for a pitcher is a good one. That said, I also just want the ball. This is an interesting question for me, because I’m about to be one of those guys next year.

In short, I really think it’s case by case, but acknowledging that you should be patient when increasing workload or coming back from an injury is important.

From Omar J.:

What are the Angels going to do to improve their offense, this year and next?

Unfortunately, I am not a member of the Angels or their front office, so I can’t really speak to their plans. I do know they have Mike Trout, who I hear is super good. Like, 99 on The Show good.

From Weston R.:

What was it like being traded and do you have any advice for players being a part of trade rumors?

Think of it as moving to a new school. New opportunities, clean slate. The team that trades for you wants you.

What was your favorite part of being a minor leaguer?

My favorite part of being a minor leaguer….. hmmm. Maybe the constant availability of peanut butter and jelly? Varying shower water pressure/temperature? No. Honestly, seeing parts of the country you wouldn’t be able to see otherwise is something I’m grateful for. Also, just learning to play ball and how to take one day at a time. You grow up quick in the minor leagues.

Also a random Washington question, have you ever been to Fatty Patty’s in Vancouver, Washington?

No, I haven’t, but I will check it out. My hometown in 30 minutes north of Vancouver.

From Mark M.:

Do you consider yourself to be the best pitcher the Twins have? If not, why the lack of confidence?

I like that, haha. No. You can’t be the best if you’re hurt. Also, I’m a guy that will always think that I haven’t done anything yet. I’ll always put someone ahead of me so I have something to chase.

From Dylan G.:

How impressed are you with the recently returned Glen Perkins after undergoing two major shoulder surgeries and having been out since early 2016?

Glen and I were on team rehab for quite a while together. It’s always good to see one of us graduate. He’s done the work and get himself to a place where he can compete everyday. Not everyone returns from that type of surgery. So yes, I am very impressed and happy for him. Can’t wait to be on that field with him.

From Andrew F.:

Who would you say is the toughest hitter you ever faced that most people wouldn’t expect would be so difficult?

It’s the Big Leagues, so there aren’t any proverbial “easy outs.” For me, I answer this question based on length of at bats. Robbie Grossman is one of these guys. Really great feel for the strike zone, bat is in the zone for a long time and uses the whole field. I need a hitter to chase to some extent. Robbie doesn’t really do that. So, we have 10 pitch at-bats almost every time. Fun fact: he’s my first Major League strikeout, looking. (From Robbie: “Yeah, and it was a ball.”)

From Sam H.:

I am wondering if players and coaches get annoyed by fans yelling down to them in the bullpen at Target Field? Also if I tied a string to a ball with a pen to have a player sign it would I get kicked out??

If you’re heckling, absolutely. If you’re saying hello or cheering, we’re cool with it. It’s just a case by case thing, and it really depends on the person. Myself personally, I’m OK with some positive feedback!

If you came in with a string and pen you probably would not get kicked out, no. I cannot guarantee that it will be signed though.

From Laurel T.:

Do you guys ever play the carnival throwing games, and are you 100% guaranteed a prize because of your ability?

I really cannot remember the last time I played one of those games, but we do have a better chance than most probably. 100%? No. Better than most? Yes.

Speaking of the “unwritten rules”—if you are the pitcher and everyone knows that a batter is going to be hit for retribution of an earlier misdeed, is it really difficult to intentionally hit someone with a pitch? Not skills-wise, but emotionally? It seems like that would be hard.

It probably isn’t easy, but I can’t really speak to the situation.

Do you keep baseballs from important achievements, and if so, how do you organize them/keep them?

I do. I have all of my Major League firsts packed away in storage for the moment. I think I would display it all in some way eventually!

If you were active during Players Weekend, what would your nickname have been on your jersey?

I was dubbed “Lurch” as a rookie in 2008, and it stuck.

When the team travels, do the players go out to eat together? Do you typically get to do what you want on an off day in an away city?

We mix in team dinners pretty often and break into groups sometimes as well. The bullpen will usually eat together regularly. I personally get lunch or dinner with a teammate pretty much everyday. And yes, when we’re off for a day, we have the freedom go out and about.

From Myra K.:

What’s in the backpack that a relief pitcher carries out to the bullpen?

We’ll run both Mailbags next week, and also remember that you’re always welcome to get our take on topics of your choosing in the three weekly chats hosted at MLBTR (Tuesdays at 2pm CT with me, Wednesdays at 6:30pm CT with Jason Martinez and Thursdays at 2pm CT with Jeff Todd).

Thanks, as always for your questions! Remember, you can also pose your inquiries to our writers during any of three weekly chats: myself on Tuesdays at 2:00pm CST; Jason Martinez on Wednesdays at 6:30pm CST; and Jeff Todd on Thursdays at 2:00pm CST.

Do you think the Mets should go hard after Mike Moustakas in the off season? What kind of an offer could land him? — Mike O.

At this point, as sad as it is to say, I don’t see how the Mets’ front office can head into 2018 under the expectation that they can get any notable contribution out of David Wright. (That’s all the more true after today’s news that Wright’s rehab assignment has been halted after he experienced shoulder pain.) Viewed through that lens, Moose makes sense as a somewhat reasonable on-paper target for the Mets, who don’t have an upper-level third base prospect that’s forcing his way into their plans.

The Mets do, however, possess quite a few infield options. Even if they don’t retain Asdrubal Cabrera beyond the current season, the Mets have both T.J. Rivera and Wilmer Flores as third base options in addition to Wright. I don’t know that spending on a top-of-the-market third baseman is going to be in the cards for a Mets club that perhaps still hopes to get something out of Wright next season and has at least two capable MLB alternatives already on the 40-man roster.

I’d currently peg Moustakas to land a five-year deal worth $90MM this offseason, and that’s a pretty heavy commitment given the current structure of the Mets’ roster. Moose’s on-base issues — he sports a career .305 OBP — may also give Mets GM Sandy Alderson pause.

While the Mets have a long-term need at the hot corner, I’d imagine they’ll be looking at other areas of need first in free agency. The bullpen, perhaps an outfielder (depending on Michael Conforto’s eventual diagnosis), some catching help and even some rotation stability to provide insurance in the wake of this year’s injuries all seem like more pressing needs.

What sort of contract is Carlos Gonzalez likely to get? Something befitting his newfound mediocrity like 3/15? Or a 1-year make-good deal for $5M or so? How much do you think he lost by not agreeing to an extension last offseason? — Allan H.

I can’t see Gonzalez and agent Scott Boras taking multiple years at a low annual rate. A one-year deal is going to be their best bet heading into free agency. Recent examples of former star-caliber players that have had poor seasons and signed one-year pacts have shown that a one-year, $5MM deal may be beneath Gonzalez, though. Carlos Gomez signed a one-year, $11.5MM contract with the Rangers this offseason. A much older Matt Holliday got $13MM on a one-year deal (albeit coming off a better year at the plate).

I’d expect Gonzalez to sign for one year in the $10-14MM range in hopes of cashing in on a rebound season and looking for a much larger payday next winter. He’ll play next year at the age of 32 and would be 33 when seeking his larger contract if all pans out well, but that’s not too old for a corner outfielder to earn a solid contract.

I don’t know what the Rockies were offering him this spring, though I do recall chatting with Jeff Todd at the time and expressing surprise that the Rox were even interested. I’d have capped an offer to CarGo in the Josh Reddick range (four years, $52MM) at the time, and in retrospect, even that looks like it would’ve been a marked overpay.

For starters, I’m not sure where the notion that Pompey is ready for MLB time comes from. Pompey’s OPS in Triple-A last year barely scraped .700, and he’s been limited to 49 plate appearances this season due to injuries. He’s not pushing Pillar for a job anytime in the near future. Hernandez is likely to get a look as a potential everyday corner outfielder in September and next year, and I’d imagine that Alford will be presented with a similar opportunity.

Smith was left unprotected from the Rule 5 Draft twice and went undrafted both times. He’s put up solid but unremarkable numbers in Triple-A this season — .270/.344/.393 — and is less than two months from his 25th birthday. That doesn’t make him too “old” to be a future contributor by any means, but it’s important to note when gauging his overall ceiling. If any one of Hernandez, Pillar, Alford and Smith is going to be destined for fourth outfielder duties, I’d imagine that it’d be Smith.

Pillar’s bat isn’t great, but he’s one of the best defensive players on the planet. He’s been worth nine to 11 wins above replacement over the past three seasons (depending on your preferred version of the stat) based largely on the strength of that glove. Pillar shouldn’t go anywhere.

Is it too soon to abandon all hope on Yoan Moncada becoming the next Cano? How many perennial all stars struggle this mightily at the MLB level before becoming 3+ annual WAR players? Who is a comparable player with a similar history? — David C.

Moncada is barely 22 years old. It’s not uncommon at all for a player that young to come up and struggle immediately. Mike Trout hit .220/.281/.390 through his first 135 PAs as a rookie. Byron Buxton was labeled as a “bust” by many earlier this season when he opened the season 4-for-49 (and struggling in earlier MLB action), but he’s hitting .276/.336/.455 since April 25 and .333/.370/.657 since the All-Star break. There are dozens of other examples of players that came up and performed extremely poorly early on. If anything, early struggles should be the expectation as opposed to immediate stardom. (We are not worthy, Rhys Hoskins.)

For all of Moncada’s struggles, he’s still getting on base (.328 OBP, 15.5 percent walk rate) and showing some power (three homers, six doubles, a triple, .168 ISO). Strikeouts are probably always going to be an issue for him, but 140 plate appearances of struggles don’t prove he won’t eventually be a quality MLB regular. He won’t ever win a batting title with this level of swing-and-miss in his game, but there’s no reason to give up on him right now.

However, in terms of being “the next Robinson Cano,” it’s best to just get that notion out of your head right now. Moncada was likened to Cano because his swing looks similar and he’s going to play the same position, but Cano is an outstanding contact hitter and has only K’ed at a clip greater than 15 percent in one season. Moncada doesn’t need to be the “next Cano.” Have some patience, let him be himself, and enjoy having his talent.

In last week’s MLBTR Mailbag, Jeff Todd fielded questions on the Athletics’ chances of trading Jed Lowrie, Jay Bruce’s free agent stock, the Giants’ offseason outlook and some potentially available arms on the offseason trade market.

If you have a question pertaining to August trades, 2017-18 free agency or any other topic we’d typically cover here on MLBTR, send us an email: mlbtrmailbag@gmail.com. We’ll run the next edition of the Mailbag later this week, but remember that you’re always welcome to get our take on topics of your choosing in the three weekly chats hosted at MLBTR (Tuesdays at 2pm CT with me, Wednesdays at 6:30pm CT with Jason Martinez and Thursdays at 2pm CT with Jeff Todd).

Thanks as always for your questions! If yours wasn’t selected this week, you can always pose it in one of our weekly chats: Steve Adams at 2pm CST on Tuesdays, Jason Martinez at 6:30pm CST on Wednesdays, and yours truly at 2pm CST on Thursdays.

Well, there has been a bit of a game of musical chairs in the second/third base market. The Red Sox went with Eduardo Nunez. The Nationals grabbed Howie Kendrick, who can also play outfield. The Brewers ended up with Neil Walker in August. Those deals filled some of the main needs out there, though there are at least a few teams that could still make a move. The Angels stand out; the Indians have looked in this area; and the Blue Jays could be a dark horse if they make a run.

But let’s suppose a few organizations are indeed still poking around on Lowrie. Those same teams will also have other options to consider. Ian Kinsler is now off the market after his waiver claim was revoked by the Tigers. But Brandon Phillips and Zack Cozart are both pending free agents who could move. Yangervis Solarte may not clear waivers, but could be claimed and pursued. And Asdrubal Cabrera also represents a possibility.

Cabrera, like Lowrie, comes with a club option for 2018. In Lowrie’s case, it’s just a $6MM cost to keep him (against a $1MM buyout). He has surely played well enough to make that a decent asset to move over the winter. And perhaps Oakland isn’t all that anxious to press Franklin Barreto into everyday duty in the majors just yet. After all, he’s only 21, didn’t hit much in his brief debut, and has encountered a rising strikeout rate at Triple-A. Lowrie could help stabilize the infield the rest of the way or even in 2018, or he could still be flipped if a decent offer comes along.

How do you guys see the [free-agent] market for Jay Bruce developing? I have a hard time believing that a 30/31-year-old who has six seasons where he OPSed over .800 would have trouble locking down a fourth year at a $13MM AAV. — Alex W.

As Alex helpfully pointed out in his email, there are indeed quite a few corner outfielders that have landed free-agent contracts in that range. Recent deals that could work as comparables run from Nick Markakis (4/$44MM) and Josh Reddick (4/$52MM) up to Nick Swisher (4/$56MM) and Curtis Granderson (4/$60MM). Bruce is a plausible candidate to land in that general realm.

I do think Bruce is flying under the radar a bit, given the obvious appeal of his quality offensive output this year — .267/.334/.541 with 32 homers. It doesn’t hurt that he has turned things on thus far since going to the Indians, has finally reversed the abysmal defensive metrics, and is regarded as a top-shelf professional. The two lost seasons of 2014 and 2015 are hard to ignore entirely, and he has never hit lefties nearly so much as righties, but he has returned to his prior trajectory since and has been average at the plate when facing southpaws this season. Plus, there won’t be any draft compensation to contend with.

But where exactly he falls, and whether he gets a fourth year or instead takes a higher AAV over three, will depend upon market forces. J.D. Martinez and Justin Upton (if he opts out) would be the two top corner outfielders, but both are righty bats that would require very significant contracts. Granderson and Melky Cabrera will present alternatives for teams seeking lefty pop, but neither has quite Bruce’s present power and both are much older. All things considered, Bruce should be fairly well positioned.

I’m wondering if the Giants’ plan to re-tool, rather than rebuild, has a reasonable chance of success. Does SF have only two or three spots, like one outfielder and two pitchers, that will make the difference in being competitive? Or will the re-tooling need to involve more spots on the roster, like two outfielders, maybe an infielder (third base), and three or four pitchers? And are there players available in free-agency for them to do that? — Tim D.

Let’s start with the presumption that Johnny Cueto opts into the remainder of his deal. That would fill one of the rotation slots but also keeps a lot of cash on the books — over $150MM total already for 2018, with more than $100MM promised in each of the next two seasons. And the club will also have to consider what it’ll cost to keep Madison Bumgarner around past 2019.

Looking over the roster — see the current depth chart here — the Giants will face questions in a variety of areas. Third base is unresolved, the team needs at least one starting outfielder (a center-field-capable player would perhaps be preferred, bumping Denard Span to left), and several bench/platoon roles are open to question. The team will likely at least look into adding a starter, though it could choose instead to go with Matt Moore along with Ty Blach or another less-established pitcher to line up behind Cueto, Bumgarner, and Jeff Samardzija. Bullpens can always be improved, though the Giants can hope for a bounceback from Mark Melancon and continued performance from reclamation hit Sam Dyson in the late innings.

On the whole, then, perhaps a more dramatic roster overhaul isn’t really needed. Assuming the club is willing to spend up to, but not past, the $180MM-ish payroll it carried entering the current season, that leaves some room to add. But the long-term commitments and 2017 downturns certainly also speak in favor of exercising some caution. I’d expect a focus on striking shorter-term deals with veterans.

Possibilities at third could include Pablo Sandoval, Todd Frazier, and Yunel Escobar, or the Giants could go bigger and chase the still-youthful Mike Moustakas. In the outfield, Lorenzo Cain would be the top center-field target, though he’ll be entering his age-32 season and won’t be cheap. There are some interesting alternatives, including Carlos Gomez, Jon Jay, and Jarrod Dyson. It’s also possible the Giants could chase Bruce or another corner piece while adding a player like Austin Jackson to platoon with Span in center. And as ever, there are lots of different pitchers available at different price points should they look to add there.

Ultimately, there ought to be decent value available in the price range the Giants will be shopping. Whether that’ll work out or not … well, that’s dependent upon quite a few other factors and is tough to predict at this point.

Which young, controllable starters (like Chris Archer, for example) will potentially be available via trade this upcoming offseason? –Matt H.

Archer is certainly a good example of a guy who could be available and who’ll be asked about quite a lot. Depending upon how things end up for the Rays this year — currently, it’s not trending in the right direction — they may be more or less inclined to undertake a more dramatic move such as dealing the staff ace.

There are a few other names to watch, though. Michael Fulmer of the Tigers would figure to draw some of the most fervent interest, and Detroit has to be thinking creatively entering an offseason full of questions. The Pirates could decide that now’s the time to move Gerrit Cole, though he’ll only have two years of control remaining so may not really meet the parameters. Julio Teheran of the Braves will surely again be a topic of speculation, at least, and the Marlins will have to consider cashing in Dan Straily.