Sunday, December 28, 2014

The current cycle of the regime tight hold on ALL levers of power and decision is finally over: the high court has been packed solid red. As I wrote in a previous post, nothing is to be surprising there: the regime knows it has lost the majority in the country and since it is a mere band of thugs it is preparing itself to find ways to remain in control no matter what. This is the way thugs/mafia/criminals operate.

The only surprise here, whatsoever, is the brazenness of the whole thing. And today takes the top price as a criminal is one of the newly appointed 12 "justices". One would have hoped that the regime would have found some tiny fig leaf to hide the impudence of its actions. But no. For example, two of the "justices" appointed are directly involved in flagrant irregularities of Simonovis case, Marjorie Calderon and Maikel Moreno. This last one was already a legal creep in the Puente Llaguno and Danilo Anderson affairs.

Arapito used to be one of the paradise beach Venezuela had decades ago, even featuring in European tourism posters. I still remember going there as a kid as a stop over on the road to Cumana, our annual vacation outing then. Since then mass tourism has come, but not of the good type. Thinning coconut trees, greasy spoon stands, noisy crowd on holidays. I certainly will not spoil my fond memories by going back there, the more so after the mass robbery that took place yesterday.

The main leaders of the opposition must express themselves [condemn?] nationally and internationally as to the coup from the government.

Oh my, oh my! Kind of late, no?

There is no doubt that the recent appointment of the "poder moral", the CNE and the high court (in a few hours) have been done against the constitution, never mind its spirit. No doubt whatsoever, even for chavismo whose brazen hurry in the whole thing is as perfect a confession as you could hope for.

Friday, December 26, 2014

And no, it is not that we have an obscure date line that we cross on our own. It is that the obscure power struggle inside chavismo is already in full swing, not waiting to be a 2015 crisis fall out.

Today Rafael Ramirez, once upon a time under Chavez the tsar of the wallet, has been demoted once more. A very few months ago having been pushed from holder of the oil purse to Foreign Minister, he is now mere ambassador to the UN. This confirms that a second group inside chavismo has lost its position and that the battle among the remaining surviving factions to occupy that space is in full swing. And the substitute to Ramirez indicates which are the factions on the rise: the lunatic left.

Two major newspapers have published letters as OpEd from the two sides of the Venezuelan spectrum. I will let you judge by yourself comparing them. I also re-publish them integrally so you do not need to seek the the links.

Wednesday, December 24, 2014

Dear readers, it is time to wish you a merry Christmas. At least, if you have the luck to reside outside of Venezuela the odds that your Christmas will be at least decent are good. Here in Venezuela it is going to be one the saddest Christmas in a long time, with significant odds of getting even worse in December 2015.

Tuesday, December 23, 2014

Contrary to many people I make a point to put the Twitter account of those that I do criticize on Twitter. It is just fair, it gives them a chance to reply back if they wish, it proves that I am not a hypocrite. Well, Diosdado Cabello, a frequent target of my tweets, does indeed read my tweets and does not like them (or whoever manages his account, the more likely possibility!) So I have been blocked! I am tickled pink!

Some democrat! does the NYT knows about that?

Which is totally stupid anyway as I can open another account and read his tweets, criticize him, until I am blocked again. But such idiots can only get so much of my time... thin skin....

In Venezuelan history books, when the real ones will be written, it is possible that 2014 will be qualified as the year as all changed and yet nothing changed. 2014 will be framed between 2013 the year chavismo became an outright dictatorship and 2015 the year when all went to hell.

I suppose that a long time blogger must cave in to the routine of writing a year in review post. So might as well get over with it, even before writing a Merry Xmas post. And yet 2014 may still be full of surprise in Venezuela like the regime shutting out the opposition from any of the administrative post it deserves in a normal democracy (1). But the essential has been done: short of a major earthquake, tsunami or meteor crash, the deed that matters is done for Venezuela for 2014.

The year started after the infamous "dakazo" of November 2013, where allowing "legal" looting the regime ensured a municipal electoral victory the following December. The stage was set for a regime ready for any trickery to flatter the bulk of a populace just out to grab anything regardless of the consequences. The first consequence was that the regime entered paralysis in doing anything that was not a give away, without cash for it. The second consequence was a division inside the opposition, between those that were not going to keep taking abuse from the regime and those who, well, may be talked into tolerating such abuses.

January woke up with empty shelves in all electronic, hardware, furniture stores and the like. These shelves never got replenished. Some stores on occasion got some shipments that usually were tightly controlled by the Nazional Guard, if anything for them to have first pick. Thus started the constant item of this year, random scarcity of goods. Paper toilet did come back on a regular basis but never did milk while toiletries and laundry detergent are now treasure troves.

Saturday, December 20, 2014

On one hand the regime had been preparing for a major anti US offensive, rooted in a sanction bill that Obama finally signed. On the other hand, a day earlier Obama was for all purposes giving a free pass to over 5 decades of Castro's tyranny and their crimes. The local potentates, not trained at all in the world finesses are all in a major state of confusion. And contradictions galore.

Wednesday, December 17, 2014

The news today is of course Obama deciding to renew ties with Cuba after about 50 years of embargo and what not. I will not even bother to put up a link, just open your Google News section.

I am not going to argue the pros and cons. One thing is clear and it is that the embargo has not worked, has furnished the odious Castro criminals with an excuse that they have milked beyond the udder. Yet the failure of the embargo was not the idea per se, but the way successive weaklings applied it, speaking tough when the Miami Cuban vote was needed, forgetting about it as soon as they were sworn into some elected office. Clearly something had to be done and I am too busy, too overwhelmed by my own life and home problems to give you the opinion of my crystal ball about the well founded of that initiative of Obama, or any other possible one.

Wednesday, December 10, 2014

There is no doubt about it, not only Maduro is in denial but he has a plan. That the plan is written by Cubans willing to gamble on outright repression is inconsequential. That the plan has any chance of success is beyond the point. That chavismo itself will not support it is the least of his worries.

Sunday, December 07, 2014

For readers of this blog and other keen observers of Venezuelan reality, it has not passed without notice that the black market rate of the Venezuelan Bolivar (VEB) has taken a major dive in front of the America Dollar (USD).

The last time the VEB was below 100 to an USD was October 21, at 98,09. Thus we can calculate that the depreciation of the Venezuelan currency has been of (174.03-98.09)/174.03=43.6% in 51 days. That is, the currency has lost 43.6/51=0.7% per day. A staggering number by any mean.

That tweet shows her leaving the prosecutor office after having been charged with conspiracy, which means that if she were to be found guilty after a trial she would get at the very least 8 years in jail. So, why is she, apparently, going to be tried "in liberty" while the same trial for Leopoldo Lopez is going nowhere, leaving him to languish in jail since February 18 in rather abject conditions? After all, there is no doubt about her being guilty by association with Lopez, as you can see by yourself next as she accompanied closely Leopoldo Lopez the day he was taken by the regime.

Saturday, November 29, 2014

It looks like chavismo will never run out of idiotic ideas. Yesterday we saw how we paid for them with oil prices plummeting. Today journalist Andreina Marquez (@mintina) attended a ballet performance. Words fail common sense.... Here are some of her tweets.

Friday, November 28, 2014

Well, my friends, it seems that this time we got what we saw coming. Well, some of us saw it coming long ago but that is a small consolation. I am going to give you a few of tweets from The Telegraph covering the latest OPEC meeting.

Wednesday, November 26, 2014

What if there were internal elections and nobody came? It is exactly what happened this Sunday. The regime's political facade, PSUV, held internal elections. Some inside PSUV dare to claim something like 7 million members (more than the votes they get at general elections). Cooler heads inside the PSUV satisfy themselves with 5 millions. More realistic observers do not go much further than 2 millions. Whatever it is, the participation may have not reached the half a million. That the regime refuses to give numbers "because we do not want the enemy to know exactly how many we are" is a true confession of the paucity of enthusiasm inside the PSUV. In fact, even Telesur manages a triumphant article without giving a single number of votes. They say there were more than 400,000 candidates, really, which would allow us to believe that there must have been at least the same number of votes. No?

Saturday, November 22, 2014

It has been now two years that the post Chavez era has started and nothing has been done to correct the obvious. It is true that there are many explanations, ranging from the inner divisions of chavismo to their absolute ignorance of how the world really works, not forgetting that Cuban masters have come to the realization that Venezuela is lost and that they need to loot as much as possible before the inevitable bankruptcy. The point I am trying to make here is that the regime does not take any serious decision outside of repression while the opposition is doldrumier than ever, apparently waiting for things to fall of their own weight. But such procrastination has consequences.

It's the economy, stupid!

The problem here is that under Chavez Venezuela has become more dependent on oil than at any time in its history. That this income reached astronomical highs is only part of the explanation, there was also a deliberate and continuing attempt at destroying the private production sector to weaken opposition financing, beyond ideology, of course.

Wednesday, November 19, 2014

Two days ago Alek Boyd, well know to our readers, suffered a break in at his home in London. Interestingly the only thing they took away was his lap tops. Money, cash, passports, remained behind. Just the lap tops. Since he has been a long time investigator of the Chavez regime corruption this blog asked him a few questions.

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We have been surprised to learn that even in London methods like those used in Venezuela to harass opposition are applied. Could you briefly tell us what happened?

Basically, one and/or a group of subjects of my investigations must have felt that breaking and entering into my flat, and stealing a couple of laptops would send a chill down my spine, and I would be silenced, or blackmailed with the information potentially retrieved. For years chavistas and their associates have been sending death threats, have launched smear campaigns to tarnish my reputation, have tried to hack my website and email accounts, have initiated ridiculously spurious legal cases against me, have attacked my family, all with the purpose of shutting me down. In their infinite ineptitude, they truly believe that the methods they use in Caracas can be extrapolated to any other place, without consequences. But they keep miscalculating, and erring.

Tuesday, November 18, 2014

Maduro is finishing his week the enabling law period. So, as it has always been the case since Chavez reached office, every hitlerian enabling law lasts one to two years but 90% of the "laws" decreed are published in the very final couple of weeks. One truly wonders why the urgency of an enabling law if the future alleged positive effects of such dictatorial measure will be announced at the very end of the period. Of course, for those new to this sick game, the whole point of the regime during these months of wait is to test political waters and announce political laws in bulk so that opposition will be drown under the flood. Remember: this is ALL about control, NOTHING about sound economics.

Saturday, November 15, 2014

The current Venezuelan dictatorship is unusual in that it has, relatively, few political prisoners. However this is amply compensated by the notorious cruelty that the regime has against such prisoners. The case of Afiuni has defrayed the chronicles. Simonovis had to be in a near death situation for the regime to give him home arrest so he could be treated. And "smaller" cases are also the target of human rights violations such as students raped or threatened with rape while arrested early this year. In addition to physical cruelty there is also a purposeful mental cruelty from all sorts of verbal abuses to trials that are postponed constantly so not even the illusion of justice is offered. But what is happening to Leopoldo Lopez is truly baffling, even by the regime "standards".

Before I get into this story let me add a comment. The current violence and almost randomness of torture, the abuse of power, the deliberate cruelty are alien to Venezuelan political "tradition". And it is a tradition with quite a story for itself, from the troubled civil wars of the XIX century to the longest of dictatorships with Gomez, to the anti AD expediency of Perez Jimenez. Whichever the case was in general the power in place tried to dispatch political enemies as fast as possible, be them killed quickly or interned in a camp after a fast trial of sorts. So why this totally novel form of crushing political dissent? I will advance two reasons.

Thursday, November 13, 2014

To add more complexity to an already complicated situation Maduro went a big step ahead in creating a parallel administration for the country. That is, a parallel system for many activities of the state, a system that he can finance (if he has money) as he pleases, outside of any legislative control. Why is he doing that? Two reasons. Because he does not have enough money for all so he must find a "legal" way to give the money to only a few. Because he may be losing next year legislative election by a margin wide enough that no amount of electoral fraud will be able to disguise the fact (after all, we are in an elected dictatorship, are we not?)

To nail down the whole scheme he even dares making these new laws he decreed "organicas" which means that the laws can only be changed by a 2/3 vote in the national Assembly, something he trusts the opposition will not be able to reach. For those that still think Venezuela is a democracy (mercifully a dwindling small number) let me remind you that Maduro decrees these law through an "enabling law", Hitler style, that he got barely with a 3/5 majority (having expelled/blackmailed/bought enough opposition representatives on the flimsiest of charges to reach the magical number). And yet these laws can only be abrogated or modified by a 2/3 majority. 3/5 become 2/3. Explain to me where is representation and democracy in that....

Monday, November 10, 2014

One must be in awe at the news this morning, reflecting an interview of our top economic minister to the the top chavista talk show. General Marcos Torres who is now the one in charge of all the money in Venezuela has given a gravity defying performance, helped by Jose Vicente Rangel, the worst courtier of the regime. But there is already a clear interpretation beyond the words of the General. One, the regime is already hard into an electoral campaign that may come sooner than expected and two, as a General we can only by charitable by supposing he thinks the economy is just like the barracks; he gives orders, people obey, results are predictable.

To make sure you do not think I am making up what follows then, I will take my sources from two pro Chavez papers, Ultimas Noticias and El Universal. Also I am not going to comment on this as a financier which I am not but as a business person at ground zero.

Sunday, November 02, 2014

There is no need now to argue against the disastrous economic situation of Venezuela, all of Chavez making (Maduro is a mere idiot managed by his Cuban puppeteers who are merely making things worse than what they should be). The results are for all to see. From an oil exporting country we have done our first importation of oil. More than at any time in our history we depend on oil, at a time where the oil barrel has lost around 25% of its value. We import at the very least 60% of our food (some estimates reach 75% of our total needs in whatever). Our international reserves have reached a decades low. The "official" yearly inflation is now 63% when the real one, outside of a failed price control system, hovers probably around 100%. And this, my friends, when all your neighbors have a yearly inflation average below 4% means hyperinflation, in XXI century parameters. The more so when there is a nasty trend in many advanced countries towards deflation...

Friday, October 31, 2014

What can I say? Never did I see so many changes in Venezuela after a mere three weeks absence. In fact, the shock of the first few days was so big that I refused to update my database on politics and the like. Even today as I type I am far behind the details. And yet they do not matter: the big picture has become bigger for me after four weeks outside.

My first shock was the grocery store when I went to refurbish my refrigerator. The prices went noticeably up in one month for the stuff I buy. There was no imported goods. Of course, among the goods available there is all sorts of imported stuff re-processed in Venezuela. After all we are importing now at the very least 60% of our food (estimates vary, I am giving you the bottom line). What I mean is that you could still find an occasional treat, like some average Italian pasta, or an overpriced jar of raspberry jam. This is now all gone. And it has not been replaced, even by sub-par Venezuelan production.

Monday, October 27, 2014

There were elections yesterday in Uruguay and Brasil, and friends of the Sao Paulo Forum have reasons to cheer. Not because they won but because their system of social division and class hatred prospers ensuring them meager but consistent electoral victories. Let's look at Brasil.

Friday, October 24, 2014

Rodriguez Torres, ferocious minister of security who had dozens of students killed and hundreds jailed is fired, when he tried to rein in the "colectivos", chavismo storm troopers. Yet, military balance in government remains unchanged.

The advantage of distance is that one has no time to follow closely what happens in Venezuela nor the ability to self drown in useless details. Thus the mind clears up and one starts seeing "things". I see a "dakazo 2" in play and I see an avid embrace of technocratic managed inflation by the regime. The poor guys do not have much of a choice: the drop in oil prices is not a mere circumstantial affair and something must be done even though as it is always the way in Venezuela the decisions are not the right ones.

Saturday, October 18, 2014

Do not count me among those ones totally upset about Chavez daughter gaining a Security Council seat at the UN for two years with basically zero qualifications for the job. The problem is not her, the problem is the UN and assorted organizations which in the last decade have descended fast into a tolerated irrelevance.

The starting point in that race to nothingness could be traced to many starting blocks: I choose the decision of Bush to invade Iraq without any permit from the UN. It has all gone downhill since, sped up along by China and Russia voting strictly along their basic interests, forfeiting their global role and responsabilities whatsoever. Or have you forgotten their disgraceful performances during the Arab brief Spring? Syria?

Same thing for the OAS in the Americas already quite weak when Chavez came in. The problem is not that Chavez, guided by Fidel, reduced it to mulch, the problem is that people let him get away with it. The near sightness of countries like Chile or Brazil in this disaster will come back soon enough to haunt them the day they will need support of international groups.

That Chavez daughter, who probaly has already a criminal record on her own, makes it to the UN, be it to be promoted as an eventual puppet successor to Chavez by her Cuban mentors, or because it was the only way to have her vacate the presidential home premises (soon two years after Chavez croaking) is a mere insult from Cuba to the UN, amazingly undetected by half of European countries, that I know. Maybe abstention is not allowed in the UN? Whatever the reasons are, there is no beter proof that the UN has become a mere bureaucracy, a place where politicians can serve vacation time or suffer a comfy exile.

If I were Ban, I would resign. Then again, I was named as a bureaucrat to that post, anyway.....

Thursday, October 16, 2014

Here are 4 pictures of 4 places I have visited these last few days. That way you will understand better the low posting rate. Note: it is 80% business trip and I am exhausted, but I still manage a day out on occasion. Bonus points if you guess more than the mere place or country.

City one: (hint: NOT Venezuela)

Country 2: guess the fruit for free bonus. And no, it is not litchi or Asia.

City 2:

City 3: and a marvelous concert to boot, nobody coughing, no cel phones.

Saturday, October 04, 2014

Even though I am far away, in a country where there is medicine and food, where there are no power outages and where I can sleep on a ground floor room with my window open, waves of bad news keep reaching me even if I avoid my computer as much as possible.

Saturday, September 27, 2014

There are of course those that still think the regime has a plan. A plan it does: to hold on to power forever. But a plan to improve Venezuela economy, social situation, health care, etc.? Dream on...

Between yesterday and today I visited two stores that speak volumes on how degraded the economic situation since Maduro destroyed any confidence that the business may have harbored. Not much to begin with... In short, since the "dakazo" of last November when Maduro organized official looting to empty all the stores from electronic goods to win the municipal election, these stores have simply not renewed their stock. And if on occasion something comes through it is because the regime has given them official dollars so they avoid again the high armed robbery the regime did against them last year.

We will start with the book store in Caracas that I tended to use. I had not been there in 6 months. Well, there is nothing.

Monday, September 22, 2014

This week end two majors newspapers of the world have come out with harsh to blistering editorials. They are worth putting in full in this blog as for once, editorials sound almost as stringent as this blog. I have taken the liberty to highlight a few words in both editorials, to show how degraded the image of Venezuela is. For two papers and this blog to use almost the same language is quite striking, unless, of course, chavista will claim it a conspiracy and yours truly advising the editorial boards of both papers.....

Sunday, September 21, 2014

This week end caught us with two pieces of good news. Well, sort of. Two political prisoners got better jail terms, that is, home arrest for a while. One is a police chief of 2002 that the regime has tried to scapegoat as the lone guilty party of the deaths of April 2002, Ivan Simonovis. The other one was an activist from the protest earlier this year, Sairam Rivas.

Should we read something into this? I am afraid not.

To begin with, those two cases had become a problem for the regime's international image. Not that it cares much at this point, but with an expected trip of Maduro at the UN in the coming days, a mere gesture could only help.

Tuesday, September 09, 2014

I have convinced myself that all political players still out there have decided to wait and see what happens though its own gravitational pull. Maduro has decided that the solution to all the regime failed control system is yet more controls. Capriles goes to the beach and gives us a set of vulgar to pictures from Playa Parguito which in Venezuelan slang is much fodder for chavista homophobia. Meanwhile, even though the regime hides official statistics such as inflation and scarcity index, it cannot be hidden that the country has more than likely entered into a recession.
ugly

Even though Ramirez has been evicted/promoted, the regime is strictly unable to take any significant economical measure. Not even to increase the price of gas, a measure that may not be able to help much in the foreign currency balance of the country but that would raise at least some local currency cash to pay the regime's local obligations. In fact it is quite possible that the gas price increase has become such a big bugaboo for the regime that this one has simply paralyzed on any reform, or so Maxim Ross thinks in an interview in La Razon.

Saturday, September 06, 2014

We just learned that Lorent Saleh, a vociferous student activist against the Chavez regime has been expelled from Colombia to Venezuela. I have no doubt that Lorent Saleh crossed the line in Colombia on what political activities a foreigner can undertake there. I am certain that there might be justified reasons for the Colombian government to ask him to leave the country.

But there is ABSOLUTELY NO EXCUSE for the Santos government to expel him to Venezuela where Lorent Saleh is subjected to political persecution.

Tuesday, September 02, 2014

So Maduro had a "cadena" tonight to announce his new cabinet, new measures, etc... As usual since he is legally but not legitimately president I have not followed it. Through Tweeter and a few articles I get all what I really need. See, once you have understood that the regime cannot change because it would collapse, then there is nothing to expect anymore but more repression, more controls, more intervention. All becomes very predictable and tonight was no exception.

The real game in town?

For example he announced the usual Castro like slogan of now 5 revolutions inside the revolution because apparently after 15 years of Chavez public administration is still controlled by bourgeoisie. He is right on that last one except that it is the chavista corrupt bourgeoisie carefully nurtured over the last decade so as to have a body of public servants corrupt and henceforth subject blackmail. That helps insure the survival of the regime. Thus the 5 new revolutions are nothing more but yet a new attempt at a parallel control system of government such as it was the case for the Misiones, the comunas, the milicia, the colectivos, etc..

No economic measures of significance were announced. Things keep getting worse, oil price fail to increase to save the regime in spite of multiple wars, so this one has decided to light a candle, pray to lord Chavez and hope for a miracle rather than devaluate, increase the price of oil, free at least some sectors of the economy to lower scarcity of at least a couple of basic items.

Thursday, August 28, 2014

Of course, I could regale you with further tales of corruption and economic failure. But this blog is not that much about information these days, rather about the wonderment of being the deer in the headlights while been aware of it. My personal and my work situations are such that adequate information search is a luxurious time element I cannot afford anymore. Besides, where to look for reliable information, numbers? With El Universal gone, Tal Cual with resources too limited for investigative journalism and EL Nacional a near paperless semi shrill...

Sunday, August 24, 2014

For those who are still not aware of the smuggling business of gasoline to Colombia

Even if one is aware of the traffic, even if one does not understand Spanish, you cannot fail to be impressed by the visuals. Clearly, smuggling to such an extent is only possible because the Venezuelan authorities have allowed it because they benefit from it. And the cancer of corruption spreads evenly everywhere as the local Colombian authorities have found it safer to join in than trying to stop it. In short, the gains from getting gas for free in Venezuela and selling it at international prices in Colombia is so profitable that everyone along the way cashes in, from the natives whose lands are crossed and who demand a toll, to the guerrilla groups that work hand in hand with the Venezuelan guard. (hat tip Charly, video from Caracol TV Colombia, impossible to pass on TV in Venezuela today).

Saturday, August 23, 2014

In a feat unseen since the first two decades of the XIX century the Venezuelan Bolivarian Chavista Army has gone on the offensive and decided to dispose of this major threat to our nation: smugglers. No expense should be spared as these people have been able to smuggle away 40% of our food without no one noticing for months of "economic war". But guided by Maduro and Fidel, the glorious revolutionary army has opened its eyes and from the twitter of the commander in chief himself we get accounts from the glorious battles fought. Next, choice tweets from Vladimir Padrino account with my most admiring appreciation.

Of course, we need to start from the field command, on top of a hill as it should. Apparently from this exquisitely chosen strategic position many smugglers path are visible and are being destroyed under the keen supervision of the fat robust generals, a wonder to all. You may appreciate the latest fashion in bullet proof jackets which I am sure were an urgent necessity on top of that hill as we can see from the very anxious facial expressions.

That from the view over here the logistics seem unworkable is irrelevant. I do not even know where the regime is going to get the currency to buy all the material it needs to equip all the stores it wishes to control.

No, what truly natters here is that the regime has taken finally an economic decision: controls will not be eased on the economy, real long term market solutions will not take place. As a consequence utmost centralization and control will proceed, with the poverty spread that comes along. Forget about devaluation, increase the price of gas, release some exchange controls to improve at least production of food. Here, we are going to use the few dollars available to buy a subsistence food system for all. After all if you cannot buy a car why should you worry about the price of gas? If you cannot afford travel, why should you care about which airlines fly to Venezuela? If you cannot afford Foie Gras and Salmon, why worry about corn flour being rationed to you?

And if you have any doubts about my words look at other bits of news.

The health sector is demanding a humanitarian emergency because medical supplies are not arriving and stocks are now depleted. The regime merely replies that they are overreacting even though you only need to visit the nearest pharmacy and listen to attendants tell a third of patrons "we do not have this one". But of course, one thing is to ration food, another thing is to ration medicine...

If food scarcity is a problem, other items are also missing. Toilet paper may be back, but look for shampoo or deodorant. Tooth paste is also back but gone is soap.

But even if you do not look at "material" issues as the ones described above, you will also observe that services are decreasing fast across the country. The main responsibility for this is the labor law decreed to help Chavez reelection in 2012. The law already nonviable in times of normally dysfunctional economy is now simply inapplicable in service sectors. As such a lot of business are reducing hours, reducing services and thus making our already hard lives more miserable.

Saturday, August 16, 2014

I would not have heard about Ferguson if it were not for the 24/24 CNN coverage after the 24/24 coverage of the Malaysia plane shot down. CNN needs such stuff to free itself regularly from coverage that ensnares it and makes it sound ridiculous.

Thursday, August 14, 2014

It is common knowledge in Venezuela AND now overseas that the judicial system of Venezuela is a farce, a mere tool of the executive to get away with whatever it needs to get done. In Venezuela all political cases and all cases against the state are decided at the convenience of the executive branch which will allow only an extremely rare "victory" of third parties when that one may serve a given side within the regime apparatus against other factions.

In short, when you fall into the hands of the regime judicial machinery you know that the final verdict, if it ever comes, will be a political decision. We are ALL potential political prisoners to be disposed of at will. This is the most powerful tool chavismo has to try to control opposition: those who do not have the nerve flee the country; those who dare to resist end up like Judge Afiuni or Leopoldo Lopez, poster victims to scare away potential protesters.

And yet, in spite of the gloomy assessment written above, the Lopez "show trial" is reaching new and unnecessary levels. Why?

Monday, August 11, 2014

Chalk a new point for the repression of the regime. Today it took its gloves off to repress the steel workers of SIDOR in Puerto Ordaz who are getting tired of the government delaying tactics for a labor pact. So the Nazional Guard, well trained from its repression against civilians and students attacked the steel workers, injured a couple, destroyed several of their cars, etc... Just to prove who is the head honcho here. Nowhere better to go for details but Aporrea, the chavista portal, the last place where the radical left has still a voice and where Marea Socialista criticizes the event better than what I could possibly do.

This being said, I have no sympathy for the steel workers though I condemn the repression they were subjected to. Why? You may ask. In short:

Saturday, August 09, 2014

I suppose that I should start with an apology: a lot of important stuff has been happening in the political country and I have not covered it. The only excuse is that things are changing so fast, and so nowhere, that I was vainly hoping for a weather lull to try to figure out the direction things were taking. Alas, it'aint not happening.

The heavy sense of being adrift is permanent. Both sides of the political spectrum are at a loss as to what to do with themselves. And this is aggravated for the regime as it needs to find a way to keep ruling the country while maintaining it viable enough so that looting can go unabated. All measures, from both sides, are piece meal, expedient, often amoral, improvised, even politically rudimentary as the country is regressing not only in technology but also in political language and ideas. A home made weather vane would be more effective to give us direction.

This being said, let me take a shot at writing a rather long piece that some of you may find entertaining to read this week end if you are bored.

Thursday, August 07, 2014

I am writing to you in respect of you accepting lobbying money to defend CITGO refineries in Louisiana. You have in an ill advised way blocked a US Senate bill that only aimed at putting some personal sanctions over some of the main culprits of human rights violations and drug traffic in Venezuela. Allow me to straighten you up.

Long time readers of this blog know it: Venezuela suffers under a dictatorship where drug traffic has played a major role, promoting corruption and the over all break up of the constitutional state. Yet, as long as Chavez was alive a fiction of democracy was maintained, a fiction where someone that was not a direct drug dealer was in charge. This week end events about how the Venezuelan regime used some of the worst thuggish ways to get back one of its capo taken away in Aruba prove beyond doubt that we are not into dissimulation anymore, this is an out and proud narco-state.

This post is not a translation of the preceding one even though the title are the same. Instead let's do an exercise in how to define a narcostate. Indeed, we are past the labels of XXI century fascism, neo-totalitarian or dictatorship regime. A narco-state requires an additional set of descriptions.

Sunday, July 27, 2014

So, as I was afraid, Carvajal was released, and faster than I expected. I must confess that for a while I thought the Dutch would be firmer, and at least negotiate something solid back for them. Why, the infamous plane blasting would have put enough outrage in its leaders to show resolve! And yet in my first two entries on the subject I was careful to note that there was still a stretch to see Carvajal rot in an US jail.

The Netherlands King visits the naked emperor of chavismo

But the Dutch are the Dutch, they are not principled like Scandinavians, they are not reckless like Latins. Business is ALWAYS business with them, nothing personal. At home they are paragon of civic attitudes and virtue. They will save Anne Frank while in Indonesia the natives did not miss them when the Japanese invaded. In the end they lost both but that is another story.

Friday, July 25, 2014

UPDATED Well, the least we can say is that the arrest of Carvajal in Aruba Wednesday has tied in knots the Venezuelan regime the way a downing of a flight by the Russian has not affected the Dutch, the way Gaza bombings have not created retaliations against Israel (yet, for both). For us, mere mortals, the arrest of an accused drug lord cannot compare to the victims of a plane crash or with the victims on both side of the border in the middle East; but for the rulers of Thuggistan Venezuela, arresting one of theirs is a capital offense of unspeakable proportions. While the country gets ready to go to war, flights to Aruba are already annulled and threats of all kinds are uttered by people that should know better (but probably have been designated as sort of sicko designated hitter).

The real thugs/goons are not on the stand: two Nazional
Guards are not amused by this anti political prisoner
poster on the high court, TSJ, walls.

Today the long awaited trial of Leopoldo Lopez (together with 4 students that should be tried separately, if at all) has started. I am not going to bother the reader with the sordid details.

For one, we all know what the verdict will be: guilty. The only thing that remains to be seen is how long the trial will be and to which extent the regime will dare apply punishment. We already have a hint as the second session is already scheduled for August 6, and since judicial holidays are coming the third session may be pushed all the way to September. As it has been the case for all political trials (judge Afiuni anyone?) the regime loves to linger on those trials, even if it does not have the facts, even if it is an open masquerade. The point here is to inspire fear in future opponents so they await for public lynching if they dare oppose the regime. Totalitarianism of the XXI century, my friends, deal with it.

Sunday, July 20, 2014

UPDATED
I suppose that one week ago writing about the opposition MUD trying not to fall in the sinkhole was going to bring karma to hit me with writing a post about the PSUV fate. Indeed one week without writing brought me today in front of the PSUV holding internal "elections" for its political congress starting in a very few days (July 26) (1).

I am not going to go into the diatribe of obvious low electoral participation (the PSUV has only itself to blame for reporting unrealistic high membership numbers, far higher than its actual average voting record). I am not going to go into all the electoral propaganda to make the country believe these elections are meaningful (Globovision looked today like a more behaved state TV propaganda). No, the true meaning of these elections is what it is trying to hide outside of the electoral contest.

Sunday, July 13, 2014

The question is not idle: two of its "major" directors are forcing us to question thoughtfully not only whether the MUD can renew itself or if it has any strategy against the regime, but if its actually intending to fight the regime, amen of being able to understand what is going on in the country. As for its alleged leader, Capriles Radonski, by now I am afraid I am through with him.

Thursday, July 10, 2014

I have been meaning for a few days to write up a simple way for people to understand why the country seems to have been frozen the last few weeks, even though Giordani is out, Lopez still in, and Capriles remains deaf mute. You may think that it seems a lot of stuff is going on but this is not the case, no matter what glaring headline stares at you. The reason is quite simple; the country is waiting at three real questions that need answers. The first one is will the regime increase gas prices. The second one is will the regime devaluate at around 15 or at around 25 for the USD. And the third question, maybe the more important one, but that NO ONE dares to touch politically, will the regime amend the labor law of 2012, a regulation that is choking all, ALL business in the country, be they state or private owned.

As long as these questions are not answered neither chavismo can plan for its post Maduro nor the opposition find again some form of political coherence. We are all silenced by the catastrophe about to fall on us.

Monday, July 07, 2014

While Capriles and the MUD keep gazing at their navel and while chavismo tries to find a novel idea, the country keeps sinking at a steady pace. Today we had two gems that speak volumes about what await us.

For the last time maybe I read my Sunday edition of El Universal. I suppose that the new owners still did not have time to change the contains significantly but I am more than certain that within weeks major journalists will be leaving the paper, that the editorial line will go from confrontational to bland if not outright supportive of the regime. It happened with Ultimas Noticias, it happened with Globovision, it was such since day one at Tves. And more minor examples that I could list. Today we are left with only two national papers that publish it all, El Nacional and Tal Cual; some local papers like El Carabobeño and El Impulso; some AM radio here and there. Period. If you live in Yaracuy State, you need to make a significant effort to get news that are not filtered to support the regime in its main points (even though the red page cannot hide the whole truth). The hoi poloi cannot be bothered.

Friday, July 04, 2014

So, I decided that I had to use my resort week now because I risked not been able to use it later this year. The S.O. being stable, work crisis being their chronic self, I left for Margarita, alone, for exercise and "me" time. A chronicle of sorts follow.

Fading paradise...

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The first thing is that my plane fare was cheaper than the cab ride between Caracas and its airport. I know, I use a safe taxi system which is somewhat more expensive. But even if I used an airport taxi or teletaxi , it would have been almost the same and when I add the cab fare in Margarita, I do spend 1.6 times in cab fares than air fare. That tells you about the distortions in prices in Venezuela.

Wednesday, July 02, 2014

Something funny happened with my last post in Spanish: it got more hits than an English written post and more G+ than usual (note: I have no idea what G+ truly is good for, it just appears with the posts). Yet few comments, as it happens with my Spanish written posts. Still, since a reader asked me to translate it, I am forced to reply that no, it cannot be translated because it has portions that are really designed to humor a Venezuelan audience (like the Flores family placement system), not to mention that humor, even if diffident, is not easy to translate. But I can post a rewrite, an English summary of sorts.

The point of that post was that the Giordani letter and its consequences highlighted that chavismo was possibly considering an exit out of a situation that they cannot control. Thus "the exit / la salida" to copy ironically the failed program of Lopez and Machado. Failed for the time being, but that is another story.

Why would chavismo consider an exit? Several reasons: they cannot control the economic crisis; they know their coalition of interests is unraveling; they know that too many of them will go to jail for their crimes (and there may be a need to select a few scapegoats); many of them would like to enjoy their loot, and would pay a reasonable price to be allowed to do so; and more. Clearly, this is impossible to tie it all up neatly and some changes will have to occur.