DVR Gridlock 2013-14: Wednesday Nights

[Over the next six days, I'm going to be glancing, night-by-night, at how the primetime schedules have changed after the network announcements at upfronts. I'll be looking at how the various changes will impact the ratings races on each night, as well as my own DVRing habits. Readers can chime in on how their own DVRs will be impacted. And yes, this brief series assumes that anybody still watches TV on their TVs. I'm old-fashioned. Check out last year's DVR Gridlock installments.]

What's Changed: Thanks in part to FOX's determination to keep renewing a talent competition nobody particularly cares about -- "X Factor," not "American Idol" -- Wednesdays are a good deal more stable than the couple nights that came before. FOX remains untouched. CBS remains untouched. Once again, ABC is using established successes "The Middle" and "Modern Family" to try to launch new comedies, a strategy that has had only limited success thus far, while keeping "Nashville," a DVR winner but a middling live performer, in its place. The CW keeps freshman CW-sized smash "Arrow" in place, using it to lead into the new drama "Tomorrow People." The only network changing more than half of its Wednesday lineup is NBC, with "Revolution" taking the 8 p.m. hour, Blair Underwood's "Ironside" remake at 10 p.m. and NBC's stubborn insistence on airing "SVU" in the 9 p.m. hour even though all indications have always been that it performs better at 10 p.m.

How the Ratings Race Is Impacted: The "Revolution" producers have always sworn that their show is a big-tent family hour. Now they'll get to prove it. NBC's needs from "Revolution" aren't that exorbitant. Nobody's asking it to return to its fall levels, only to do nearly what it has done in a dwindling spring and hold onto its robust DVR tallies. If it does that, it'll be a huge improvement over NBC's various comedy duds this year. If it fails to do that and takes a "Smash"-sized plunge without "The Voice," "Revolution" will be remembered as an epic flameout and little more. Otherwise, there's a lot of pragmatism on Wednesday. FOX, for example, knows that "X Factor" isn't likely to improve much, so the network is just hoping for another modest season and maybe a few drama hits elsewhere so that "X Factor" doesn't need to be brought back again. NBC can't honestly expect "Ironside" to improve much on what "Chicago Fire" did here last year, but if it can approach those levels while "Chicago Fire" takes the next step on Tuesday after "The Voice," it's a win. And The CW can't be expecting "Tomorrow People" to improve much on "Supernatural," but if "Supernatural" can boost Tuesday and "Tomorrow People" can near those numbers thanks to "Arrow," that's a win. And how much can ABC really expect "Super Fun Night" or "Back in the Game" to do in those sandwich slots? The answer: If either of them does a *smidge* better than "The Neighbors" or "How To Live Blah Blah Blah," that's a victory. [All bets on "Super Fun Night" are off if the network can redevelop the pilot *successfully*. I think there's breakout potential for a *good* Rebel Wilson comedy. A bad one could fail fast and hard.] In short, I don't see anybody making any big advances or huge declines on Wednesday this year. It's a night that's about enabling success elsewhere more than anything else.

My Predicted DVR: For me, a lot depends on whether or not I simply quit recapping "The X Factor" this year. I haven't decided yet. If I drop "X Factor," I then recap "Survivor" on Eastern Time and that leaves me with "Arrow" and maybe "Revolution" being recorded at 8 p.m. and "Modern Family" (and maybe "Super Fun Night" just due to convenience) and possibly "Tomorrow People" at 9 p.m. If I recap "X Factor," that then require another DVR slot for "Survivor" at 8 p.m. and probably drops "Revolution" from my rotation, which won't be a tragedy. At 10 p.m. I'll still be recording "Nashville" and we'll see about "Ironside," or if I just go with something on cable.

A long-time member of the TCA Board and a longer-time blogger of "American Idol," Dan Fienberg writes about TV, except for when he writes about movies or sometimes writes about the Red Sox. But never music. He would sound stupid talking about music.

Comments

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ABC's Rebel Wilson show is called "Super Fun Night", not "Super Fun Time".

NBC is putting SVU at 9pm Wednesday because it's an incredibly tough timeslot and it provides a valuable role as a lead-in for newer shows. The last scripted show to last more than a single season in that timeslot was The West Wing.

You're less right, IMO, on "SVU." Or at least I disagree. The show's ratings have always been far lower at 9 p.m. than 10 p.m. because it's always been VERY clearly a 10 p.m. show. And I don't think "SVU" had much, if anything, to do with the success of "Chicago Fire" last season. "Chicago Fire" showed its real growth early when it had "The Voice" and Miss Universe as its lead-in and then reliably outdrew "SVU" for the second half of the season.

Reading this series just makes me wonder where on earth NBC is going to put Hannibal when they add it back to the schedule...

As I did this year, I'll PVR Arrow to watch over the summer, and continue watching Nashville - freakin' Deacon for the win. As much as I love, love, LOVE Blair Underwood, I just cannot bring myself to watch another police procedural.

Hannibal is limited to 13 episodes a year (like cable dramas) and its recent ratings have not been very good, so NBC will probably hold it back as summer scheduling spackle for 2014. They probably would not have renewed it except that it's reportedly very cheap due to international co-production deals and lots of interest from foreign channels (although I've seen no proof it's been wildly successful overseas yet, just that a lot of channels have purchased S1). In any case NBC has said "no earlier than mid-season" so if something REALLY collapses in a 10 p.m. slot in March 2014 after the Olympics then maybe you'll see it as early as late March or April, but the failing show would have to be a real disaster with no other back-up dramas left.

Dan, we all appreciate your steadfast professional dedication to providing comprehensive coverage, but please ... do yourself a favor and give up recapping X Factor. You'll feel so much better if you can watch something that you actually enjoy or, at the very least, doesn't actively cause you pain for three hours out of every week.

There really isn't anything on the Wednesday broadcast schedule that I plan on watching regularly. While I still like Modern Family, I ceased to be a regular viewer during Season 4 and I can't imagine resuming my week-to-week commitment for Season 5. Maybe I'll check out Revolution, if only because it's a better timeslot for me than Mondays at 10, but I doubt that will last long.

There isn't really anything on cable that I enjoy, either, at least until The Americans returns in 2014. More than likely, Wednesday will become a 'Clean Out The DVR' type of night for any Sunday night cable shows I didn't get to earlier. Or I'll just, you know, not watch TV. *shudder*

Jared - If you asked me *right now* if I plan on recapping "X Factor," I'd say, "No." But it'll get to be fall and I'll be all, "Oh, I'll just live-blog the first episode to see how the new judging panel feels..." and then I'll think that it feels like an improvement and I'll do the next week and then... BLAMMO.

This is a night where everything appeals to me somewhat except CSI. I'll have to stick to a strict diet of Survivor, Back in The Game, possibly continue/possibly drop Modern Family, Both CW Shows, Nashville and American Horror Story.