12/09/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed mostly with small gains, save for the expiring front end September contract. That should take some of the extreme nearby volatility that we have witnessed in recent weeks out of the market, now that these are out of the way. Worries over a weekend frost threat for the Midwest were maybe enough to trigger some short-covering. The trade still has the USDA's huge 475 million bushels 2014/15 ringing in it's ears from yesterday though - the highest since 2006/07. The trade also still feels that final US yields this year may still end up higher than the USDA's 46.6 bu/acre that they gave us yesterday, potentially pushing carryout even higher too. The USDA reported 131 TMT worth of new crop soybean sales to "unknown" today. This afternoon’s Commitment of Traders report shows funds now sitting on a record soybean short 81,567 contracts as of Tuesday night. The NOPA crush and latest crop condition ratings are out on Monday, with revised "prevent plant" acreage data from the FSA on Tuesday. Sep 14 Soybeans closed at $10.91, up 29 1/2 cents; Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $9.85 1/4, up 3 3/4 cents; Sep 14 Soybean Meal closed at $408.00, down $18.70; Sep 14 Soybean Oil closed at 32.16, up 72 points. The very technical Sep 14 soybean contract expired up 5 1/2 cents on the week, but the more liquid Nov 14 was down 36 1/4 cents. Sep 14 meal fell $28.10 and Sep 14 oil lost 19 points on the week.

Corn: The corn market closed a couple of cents higher, save for expiring Sep 14. As with beans, the threat of a weekend frost may have encouraged some risk off moves. "Favourable yields in corn point to a bumper harvest, but delayed maturity is a worry. Corn development has been retarded in cool growing season increasing worries about freeze damage. Corn was just 15% ripe as of September 7. That compares to 30% mature, normally, and at least one week delayed. Especially at risk for freeze damage are northern Midwest corn farms where the first hard freeze arrives the first week of October," said Martell Crop Projections. Without a killing frost, many will be feeling that final US corn yields could still end up higher that the USDA's 171.7 bu/acre forecast from yesterday. The USDA reported 116 TMT of new crop corn sold to "unknown" today. Ukraine said that they'd harvested 953 TMT of corn off 5% of the planned area. Russia said that they'd harvested 2 MMT off 15% of plan. The Rosario Grain Exchange said this week that Argentine growers would reduce their corn plantings by 16% this year, down from 4.3 million ha to 3.7 million ha. The latest Commitment of Traders report shows fund money sitting on a very small net long of under 10,000 contracts as of Tuesday night. Sep 14 Corn closed at $3.39, up 7 1/4 cents; Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.38 1/2, down 2 1/2 cents. For the week that puts Sep 14 down 7 1/2 cents and with Dec 14 falling 17 1/2 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed lower across the board, with some spectacular declines for expiring Sep 14 contracts in Kansas and Minneapolis. As with beans and corn, the fallout from yesterday's USDA report continues for wheat, pushing prices to new 4-year lows. The backdrop of record world production of all three in 2014/15, along with rising world and US ending stocks has the market under pressure. In the case of wheat in particular, the USDA notes the intensifying competition with rival exporting nations, cutting foreign sales and increasing inventories. Brazil, which gave US wheat exports a welcome boost in 2013/14, will soon start harvesting what could be a record crop of it's own this year. Argentine plantings are also seen up 16.5% to 4.4 million hectares for their 2014/15 harvest which would usually begin in November. Tunisia bought 100 TMT of durum wheat in a tender. Algeria are said to have bought 400 TMT of milling wheat this week. The wheat is of optional origin, but thought unlikely to be French or Black Sea material due to various quality issues with those origins. There's talk of possible frost damage to wheat in Canada and isolated parts of the Northern US Plains where crop development is behind schedule. Sep 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.98 1/4, down 4 3/4 cents; Sep 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.72 1/4, down 23 1/2 cents; Sep 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.68 1/4, down 30 3/4 cents. For the week Chicago wheat was down 32 3/4 cents, with Kansas down 46 1/2 cents and Minneapolis dumping 58 cents.

About Me

Worked in agriculture for over 30 years as a shipper, merchant, trader & broker, but still hasn't got the faintest idea what he's talking about.
Likes beer apparently, so why not do the decent thing an hit the donate button you tight bastard?
He can also provide content for your website like market reports and commodity prices. And if you haven't got a website he can design one for you. In short, the man's a bloody genius.

Disclaimer

All comments on this website are the sole opinion of the author, and are not capable of nor intended to constitute professional advice. Neither can Nogger give any guarantee for the accuracy of any of the information or data contained within this site.

The guy is clearly deranged and you should almost certainly ignore everything that he says.