These 5 Things Could Challenge China's Rise

During his presidency, George W. Bush famously asked Hu Jintao, then president of China, what kept him up at night. Hu replied that it was job creation: how would he be sure that he could provide employment for the twenty-five million people entering the workforce every year?

Hu’s China was a different era. The “peaceful rise of China” has given way to the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation,” and, at the 19th Party Congress last month, Xi Jinping unequivocally stated that China will now be “moving closer to center stage.”

Today, displays of Chinese confidence abound, from the South China Sea to its first overseas military base, from the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, to the Belt and Road initiative, the architecture of China’s global footprint is increasingly revealed. How much has changed for China’s leadership? Despite a climate of outward confidence, there is still much that troubles the minds of China’s highest governing circles.

As the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) gets back to business following an illuminating Party Congress, we’ve picked five items that are keenly on their minds: geography, the United States, the rise and return of other powers, “separatism” and economic stability.

Geography

What motivates Chinese expansion and assertiveness? While much has been written on fishing rights, hydrocarbon resources, and historic territorial claims, less explored is a more comprehensive theme: unfavorable strategic geography.

China is now world’s largest trading nation; its continued prosperity relies on open sea lines of communication. Yet China’s open-ocean access is remarkably limited. From the east, ships must pass through straits bordered by potentially hostile entities—Japan and Taiwan. From the west, access to the South China Sea is essentially restricted to the Strait of Malacca, Sunda Strait and Lombok Strait.

In combating this strategic vulnerability, often characterized by the “Malacca Dilemma,” China’s massive naval construction, island building in the South China Sea, and Belt and Road initiative should be viewed as a singular policy. Take energy. China imported oil to meet approximately 64 percent of its need in 2016, a figure projected to grow to 80 percent by 2035, according to the International Energy Agency. It is no coincidence that the Belt and Road’s flagship project—the China Pakistan Economic Corridor—is centered on transportation-and-energy infrastructure from Gwadar to Xinjiang, diversifying China’s supply routes. Where China invests, its military follows. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) recently opened its first overseas base in Djibouti, itself located off a strategic choke point, and a move that builds upon PLA Navy’s Indian Ocean deployments and contributions to anti-piracy operations. A succinct strategy emerges, illuminating China’s whole-of-government approach to “active defense.”

China’s global expansion is often viewed as a sign of developing strength. It should also be a recognition of growing insecurity reflected in its expanded global interests. That the success of Xi Jinping’s “China Dream” largely flows through a few maritime chokepoints, undoubtedly gives Chinese leaders pause.

The United States

“One day, sooner or later, America will certainly let go of the West Pacific places and withdraw back home, just like it has had to let go of other regions in the world.” — Mao Zedong, Founder of the People’s Republic of China

Whether U.S. policymakers like it or not, the CCP’s vision includes the displacement of the United States in Asia. What has changed is that China is now not only an Asian power, but a major global actor. As referred to in our first section, the resource needs of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) cannot be met from within China’s borders. The rise of the Chinese military will track the needs of Chinese trade and will eventually require substantial global capabilities. However, China must proceed to build up both its economy and its military in the shadow of the dominant superpower, the United States, without provoking a response that could imperil China’s rise.

The United States retains advantages over China in terms of real GDP, military capability, global alliances and partnerships, and sheer experience of power projection both in Asia and around the world. However, the United States is a distracted giant, with competing national priorities. China’s leadership must already navigate with caution when rising within the shadow of a Pax Americana. What China’s leadership fears is that the United States might make some unpleasant conclusions about the nature of China’s rise, and China’s challenge to U.S. leadership. Two possibilities include surrounding China’s periphery with missile defense, or economic retaliation.