while at times kerry’s address felt like a ‘i know we’re the underdogs’ locker room motivational speech, it was laced with some compelling, tangible emphasis on private sector improvements that can credibly be driven… and which make today’s proposal very interesting. and kerry’s acknowledgments about how intractable the conflict is were well-received (“middle east peace famously reputed to be diplomatic quicksand.”)

some very inspiring words and candid accounts of the israel-palestine dynamic as it stands today– from all three of today’s major speakers. it was really wonderful to see them all on the same stage, and engaging in a dialogue together.

kerry: “think of all that can change. that’s what really should motivate us…”
and from that launching point, kerry is discussing a world post-israel/palestine peace. i don’t think anyone would deny it’s a grand vision, but kerry should perhaps heed his own advice from earlier in his speech: ‘all eyes must be on the road from here to ahead.’ because it’s a tough road indeed.

kerry speaking of how the united arab emirates trumps the other regional players in terms of tourist arrivals… perhaps this says less about the inefficiencies/flaws in other countries’ strategies as it speaks to the uae’s success. plus, it is not as surprising in the context of the following: the united arab emirates is a country where the foreign population makes up 90% of the total.

kerry very much striving to ground his speech in the credible, “shovel ready” facets of the initiative we’re discussing today. certainly a winning strategy amidst criticism that such speeches may just be rhetoric. kerry: “is this a fantasy? i don’t think so. because there are already great examples of investment and entrepreneurship that are working in the west bank.”

“countries like libya, egypt, and tunisia…need to aggressively reemerge into the global economic community.” these north african states are increasingly being propped up by an unlikely benefactor– qatar.

qatar’s desire to ignore traditional powers in the region and to pursue a soft diplomacy approach in the wake of the arab spring, as well as its longtime ties to pro-muslim brotherhood figures, have made it easier to economically assist the struggling north african region. and most critically, they have the cash to spend–with few direct economic and political strings–at a time when few others (even the imf) are prepared to make strong commitments. all of which is turning qatar from a marginal gas state to one of the geopolitical powerhouses in the region. that’s most clear in egypt–under hosni mubarak, egypt’s relations with qatar experienced decades of acrimony; today doha has become the new egyptian muslim brotherhood-led government’s closest ally. that’s nearly as true in tunisia. across north africa, qatar’s investments are less about earning a good return, then expanding and developing its relations with prospective allies beyond the gulf cooperation council…

john kerry calling the ‘arab spring’ the ‘arab awakening’ is perhaps in line with the lofty goals/visions that we’ve seen from israel/palestine’s leaders today. but it is a depiction of a perceived future trajectory. today, even ‘the arab spring’ feels like too rosy of a label– i would opt for ‘arab summer’– growing tensions, and very much in flux.

so a strong speech from abbas, but the aforementioned constituency/legitimacy issues regarding hamas must be acknowledged.

similar appraisal for peres’ speech– lofty, emotional, and hopeful– but we cannot ignore the political architecture back in israel: netanyahu presides over a government that has been shifting decidedly to the right for more than a decade, with a growing marginalization of left-wing parties, and a public disenchantment with the peace process. the center-right leadership is increasingly uncompromising.

peres to abbas: “i didn’t answer your arguments and i’ll tell you why. when we started with the plo, the situation was worse. i listened to both sides and felt nothing can happen. so all of these differences, they are moving. let’s sit together. you’d be surprised how much can be achieved in open and direct and organized meetings. we have a joint point that all of us have to see together, and change it into a peace.”

peres to kerry: “i know that all sides can count on your determination.”

undoubtedly so- – kerry is highly capable, and the middle east is an area of particular focus/expertise for him. but if kerry’s determination was actually a key determinant in israel-palestine peace negotiations, i’d be a lot more optimistic. the key drivers here do not come from the united states.

there is an unspoken wrinkle here that makes abbas’ calls for peace more difficult. his fatah party isn’t viewed as the sole credible leadership in palestine by many palestinians. hamas’ popularity is growing, particularly among younger palestinians– a demographic momentum that will drive the two sides farther apart over time. abbas/fatah cannot speak for palestine entire at a summit such as this– and hamas has every incentive to undermine any possible deal that would come out of a diplomatic process from which it’s excluded.

the panel is starting up shortly. very much looking forward to hearing from john kerry. it will be interesting to see which intractable crisis he will focus on most– israel/palestine or syria. i suspect the former, even though the latter is the more alarmingly urgent issue from a geopolitical and humanitarian perspective.

qatar was hardly mentioned in the syria summit that i liveblogged earlier. given its meager population– just under 2m people– perhaps it’s understandable that it doesn’t receive outsized attention… after all, there are at least 50 chinese cities with larger populations than the entire country. but the rising role of qatar as a regional powerbroker is extremely interesting to me. the gulf cooperation council is expanding, but qatar is much more willing to go it alone, and they’ve got the cash to back it up.

we’ve seen some fascinating panels here today. a talk this morning about the youth bulge in the region was particularly interesting.

take, for example, jordan, our host country where 37% of the population is under 15 years of age.

an extreme example is iraq, which suffers even more acutely from demographic challenges than many other countries in the region. 43% of the population is under the age of 15… only 3% is over 65 years of age.

there are a few examples, though, of countries at the polar end of the spectrum. while 26% of the world’s population is under 15 years old, the u.a.e. clocks in at 17%. qatar has just 14% of citizens under the age of 15.

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