Brazil to be fifth largest economy by 2015

And on it marches, towards prosperity and power, Brazil, the modern-day phenomena. Towards the end of last year, it was revealed that the South American country was on the precipice of overtaking the UK and establishing itself as the world’s sixth largest economy. It happened. It is the case. But, not satisfied with that breakthrough, Brazil is now expected to enter the nimbus territory of the top five, the in-circle, where it’ll be one of the select crew. Except it won’t just be one of the gang, it’ll be the “sparky” “little kid whom everyone else realises will one day be somebody.

It’s almost a case of blink and you’ll miss it kind of an era at present, with Brazil’s rapid expansion seemingly occurring at a breakneck speed. In light of the country’s strong performance, finance minister Guido Mantega, considered by many to be the architect behind the economic reforms that have allowed the country to gallop ahead over the last few years, revealed that it wasn’t just him and his peers who shared this optimism.

“The IMF (International Monetary Fund) forecast is that in 2015 Brazil will be the fifth largest economy in the world, passing France. 2015 is good, but I think that it could happen a bit earlier,” he said, echoing comments he made last year regarding sixth position. He was prescient in that deduction, as such, his prediction that it could occur earlier has every chance of coming true.

Moreover, if and should the world economy recovered with a renewed sense of activity from now until 2015, then indeed, the likelihood is that Brazil will grow beyond anyone’s estimations. Furthermore, given that France is a member of the eurozone and inextricably tied up in the complicated networks of trade and finance with other nations on the continent, it is hardly likely it will undergo growth the likes of what is being experienced in Brazil.

The Sao Paulo-based newspaper Folha reported that Carlos Langoni, the director of the World Economy Centre at FGV, believes this is possible if Brazil’s economy grows on average 4.5 per cent over the next three years, and for France’s own growth to be around 0.5 per cent.

“It is difficult to predict exactly, but it is inevitable that Brazil, like India and Russia, will overtake the Europeans in the coming years,” the newspaper quoted him as saying.

This is an interesting observation and very astute. Arab News reported that Bric countries, if “institutional global capital allocations” continue to be targeted towards them, the $13 billion (approximately £8.2 billion). This means they will be, collectively, the world’s largest group, a view that, Viatcheslav Pivovarov, chief executive officer of Altera Capital shares.

However, as great as it is that these countries are growing up for want of a better phrase, as the vice-president for the reduction of poverty at the World Bank Octaviano Canuto has observed, the quality of life of Brazilians is still below that of Europeans. This isn’t an indictment of Brazil, merely a study of the current reality. Brazil does acknowledge that great challenges remain ahead, but it also knows that its people are at the centre of change. Educating them, empowering them and bringing them out of poverty will be key to its continued success.

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