Sunday, September 26, 2010

The key economic releases this week are the ISM Manufacturing index on Friday (and the regional releases earlier in the week), and the personal income and spending report for August (also on Friday). For housing, the key economic release is the S&P/Case-Shiller Home price index on Tuesday. There will be several Fed speeches this week to review for possible hints on QE2.

----- Monday, Sept 27th -----

8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (August). This is a composite index of other data.

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for September. The Texas survey showed a slight contraction last month (at -0.1%), and is expected to show contraction again in September. These regional surveys are important now since it appears manufacturing is slowing (or contracting like the Philly Fed survey showed on Sept 16th).

----- Tuesday, Sept 28th -----

9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index for July. Although this is the July report, it is really a 3 month average of May, June and July. Prices probably started falling again in July, but the price declines might not show up in this report. The consensus is for flat prices month-over-month in July.

10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for September. The consensus is for a decrease in the index to +6 (still expanding) from 11 last month.

10:00 AM: Conference Board's consumer confidence index for September. The consensus is for a decrease to 52 from 53.5 last month. This is down sharply from May, and at about the same level as a year ago.

7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. This index declined sharply following the expiration of the tax credit, and the index has only recovered slightly over the last couple months - suggesting reported home sales through at least October will be very weak.

Fed Speeches: Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota, Philly Fed President Charles Plosser and Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren are all scheduled to speak. With QE2 clearly on the radar, these speeches will be closely watched.

----- Thursday, Sept 30th -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. Consensus is for a decline to 459,000 from 465,000 last week.

8:30 AM: Q2 GDP (third estimate). The consensus is for no change from the previous report (1.6% real annualized GDP growth in Q2).

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for September. The consensus is for a decline to 56.0 from 56.7 in August.

10:00 AM: Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies on the Implementation of the Dodd-Frank Act before the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Sentate

11:00 AM: Kansas City Fed regional Manufacturing Survey for September. The index declined sharply in August to 0 from 14 in July.

----- Friday, Oct 1st -----

8:30 AM: Personal Income and Outlays for August. The concensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income and a 0.4% increase in personal spending. Using this data we can obtain an early estimate for Q3 real PCE growth (annualized) using the two-month method (usually pretty close).

8:30 AM: New York Fed President William Dudley speaks at the SABEW conference in New York.

9:55 AM: Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (final for September). Consensus is for a slight increase 67.0 from the mid-month reading of 66.6.

10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for September. The consensus is for a decline to 54.5 from 56.3 in August.

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for August. The consensus is for a 0.4% decline in construction spending.

All day: Light vehicle sales for September. The manufacturers will report vehicle sales for September. Light vehicle sales are expected to increase slightly in September to around 11.6 million (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), from 11.44 million in August.