What
is driving and enabling the Networked Home?This question is common among homebuyers who don’t want their new home
to become obsolete before they sell and move out (or even before they move in).Builders also ask it, since they don’t want to add new features until
customers demand them.And
companies that make the products, services, and technologies want to understand
the market opportunities, leverage points, alliances and risks.Although the question is simple enough to ask, the answer can
be complex, since it is surrounded by a collection of market, economy and
technology trends.

This is the first of three
articles that will each examine key trends enabling and driving the development
of the Networked Home.The first
article covers Science and Technology Trends, followed by articles on Market and
Consumer Trends, and finally Social and Economic Trends.Your comments and suggestions are encouraged.

This
photo shows the console of a circa 1975 mainframe computer (IBM System/370 model
158), which could execute one million instructions per second and support
hundreds of users, but it required a large computer room with raised floor and
water cooling, and it cost well over $1 million.

In contrast, the PC period
introduced the idea of one computer per user, and today’s high-end PC can
execute instructions nearly 1,000 times faster than the 1975 mainframe.

1.Mobility -- Many of today’s handheld PCs, PDAs, and Internet
enabled cellular phones are more powerful than the early desktop PCs (and the
1975 mainframe).More importantly,
they are mobile and not tied to a desktop, so e-Commerce becomes m-Commerce.With location sensing, you’ll be able to ask for directions from your
current location and receive personalized ads that are specific to your
surroundings and context.Expect
these mobile devices to interface with public networks, office networks, and
home networks.

2.Broadband Networks – Competition is finally giving many
consumers the ability to choose from several high-speed Internet alternatives,
including DSL, cable modem, and wireless.Because
the cost of these networks is easier to justify if shared among several PCs or
appliances, home network performance has improved at a similar rate. For
long-haul networks, advances in fiber
optics could cause a bandwidth glut and commodity pricing – the
combined result of more fiber bundles, covering longer distances (including
under the sea), getting closer to homes (as the “last mile” gets shorter it
gains capacity), using more colors of the spectrum (wavelength division
multiplexing, or WDM), with faster pulsing (better lasers), and more efficient
compression (improved semiconductors).Following
the lead of Japan and Europe, third generation wireless networks will offer
broadband performance in the U.S. by 2003, with speeds of about 1Mbps.That’s enough to support video conferencing or Internet radio on a
cellular phone.

3.Embedded Computing & Networking – With system-on-a-chip
designs that put PC power on your fingertip, embedded computing and networking
has moved us from the 1975 mainframe era of hundreds of people per computer, to
today’s hundreds (and tomorrow’s thousands) of microprocessors per person.This is enabling a vision of a million online businesses, a billion wired
users, and a trillion connected devices.

5.Metcalfe’s Law – Metcalfe’s Law, which states that network
benefit increases as a square of the # of connected devices, is starting to
replace Moore’s Law as the driving force.Rather than operate in standalone fashion, the varied smart
devices will gain added value by sharing information.Gateways will be used to bridge between different network
media and protocols.

6.Moore’s Law – Cheaper, smaller, and faster, with CPU
performance doubling every 18 months.At
that rate, we’ll see half a trillion operations per second – 500 times
faster than today’s fastest PCs – in just 15 years.That’s just half way through a 30-year mortgage.Likewise, everyday devices with embedded processors could be 10-50 times
faster than today’s fastest PCs.They
will surely be networked, and at current growth rates, speeds will exceed 1
gigabit per second in that timeframe.

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7.EverythingDigitized– The electronic distribution of
publications, pictures, music and videos has already begun.Big issues remain, such as protecting intellectual property, but they
will be solved; and nothing will stop the overall migration of analog to digital
and atoms to electrons.This will
drive demand for storage capacity, which will consume the projected 22 terabytes
of information that could be in home servers in 2015.The efficiency of digital networks allows service providers to cut costs
while carrying different kinds of content and creating new revenue streams.By 2010, nearly every home in America will likely have at
least one gateway device to terminate these networks and adapt them to legacy
devices.

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8.Solid-state Memory – Digital cameras and music players have
driven demand for solid-state memory through the roof, and manufacturers can’t
keep up.The capacity of Compact
Flash memory cards will reach 256MB this year and 1GB next year.Within 2-3 years, a postage stamp-sized memory card will be able to hold
a feature length movie or days worth of digital music.Imagine a Blockbuster Video store housed in a kiosk.

9.Wearable computing – With perpetual wireless connections to the
Internet, its sea of information, and our own, wearables will extend our
memories and our mental capacity while revolutionizing learning.The heaviest computing tasks will take place on servers with huge data
stores, and the user interface will become part of our clothing, watches,
glasses, etc.

11.Video Conferencing –
Improvements in Internet latency and quality of service promise to take video
conferencing beyond the tiny PC window of Microsoft NetMeeting into the
mainstream.If you live or work
apart from family, friends and colleagues, this application creates a sense that
they are just feet away.From home,
you can fully participate in meetings and classes.

12.Information Appliances – Counter-top network computers, Net TVs,
game consoles, screen phones, PDAs and other information appliances are gaining
momentum while the PC is loosing it.By using Internet standards to connect to network services,
manufacturers are no longer tied to using Microsoft software and Intel
processors.Instead of Windows CE,
they could just as easily use BeOS, Linux, OS9000, pSOS, Symbian, VxWorks, or
anything with a Java virtual machine.Likewise,
the choice of processors includes ARM, Hitachi, i960, MIPS, M68000, PowerPC,
Sparc, StrongARM, Z80, and others.Although Intel and Microsoft are just bit players in the
appliance markets, they have each set their sights on this space.

13.Middleware to Bring Order – So much diversity could cause chaos
if it were not for Internet standards and middleware to handle translation,
compression, authentication, secure commerce, rights management, data
warehousing, etc.

14.Device Discovery – Adding new devices must become automatic,
meaning they must be able to sense a network, announce their presence and
capabilities, and find needed services.Emerging protocols for device and service discovery include
Sun Microsystem’s Jini, Microsoft’s UPnP, and Salutation.ProSyst, a company that offers embedded Java technologies, is
working to combine these different protocols into a single gateway device so
they can interoperate.

16.Artificial Intelligence – Learning Agents, Fuzzy Logic, Natural
Language, and similar technologies will work with sensors to give the home an
awareness of occupant behavior and the environment so home systems can adapt
automatically.

17.Robotics – Home automation and robotics systems will act on
their own to perform many tasks that get difficult with age, thus extending our
ability to live independently and lessening our need for eldercare.

18.Environmentally Friendly Energy
Sources – As photovoltaic and fuel
cells eventually fall in price, the power grid could become more like a
reservoir (for both giving and receiving power), as opposed to a fire hose (for
just giving).Home systems to
manage the energy flow have not been developed yet.

19.Structured Wall Systems –
In a derivative of the “manufactured home” concept, home-building components
will probably come complete with communication infrastructure, ductwork, power,
sensor arrays, etc.They will be
assembled on site and connected to backbone networks.

20.Increasing Pace – Improved development tools (programming, web
design, etc.) in the hands of more people, along with the ability for anyone to
become a publisher, is making it easier to create even better tools, thus
increasing the pace of change with a spiraling effect.