C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DAMASCUS 006308
E.O. 12356: DECL:OADR
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, ETRD, BEXP, US, SY
SUBJECT: ASAD INSIDER SEES BASHAR COMING TO HELP,
WANTS TO SELL U.S. AIRPLANES
1. CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT
2. SUMMARY: MUHAMMAD MAKHLUF TOLD US HIS NEPHEW
BASHAR AL-ASAD IS RETURNING TO DAMASCUS SOON (AFTER
MILITARY TRAINING IN HIMS) TO TAKE UP FULL TIME HIS
LATE BROTHER BASIL'S FORMER PORTFOLIO IN DOMESTIC
AFFAIRS. HE DOES NOT, HOWEVER, SEE MUCH OF A ROLE
FOR BASHAR IN LEBANON. MAKHLUF SAID THAT, AFTER
PEACE, SYRIA WOULD WITHDRAW FROM LEBANON, OR REMAIN
ONLY AT LEBANESE INSISTENCE. ACCORDING TO MAKHLUF,
SYRIA WILL CONTINUE TO REJECT SECRET TALKS WITH THE
ISRAELIS, AND WILL INSIST ON A CONTINUED U.S. ROLE,
WHICH IT SEES AS ESSENTIAL THROUGHOUT THE PROCESS.
HE ADDED THAT THE U.S. WAS NAIVE TO PROMOTE DIRECT
ISRAELI/ARAB CONTACTS BECAUSE THEY WOULD PROMOTE
ONLY ISRAELI, NOT U.S. INTERESTS. ON AFFAIRS
CLOSER TO HIS POCKETBOOK, MAKHLUF SAID THAT HE
WOULD BE THE ONLY EFFECTIVE AGENT FOR BOEING.
MAKHLUF'S WORDS REFLECT BOTH THE TYPE OF VIEWS THAT
ASAD HEARS AND HIS CURRENT POLICY LINE. END
SUMMARY
3. IN A DECEMBER 15 CONVERSATION WITH THE DCM AND
ECONOFF, PRESIDENT ASAD'S BROTHER-IN-LAW, MUHAMMAD
MAKHLUF, SAID THAT THE PRESIDENT'S OLDEST LIVING
SON, BASHAR WOULD SOON TAKE UP FULLY HIS DECEASED
OLDER BROTHER BASIL'S FORMER ROLE AS THE
PRESIDENT'S EYES AND EARS IN SYRIAN SOCIETY.
BASHAR RECENTLY GRADUATED FROM AN ARMOR SCHOOL IN
HIMS AND WILL RETURN TO DAMASCUS ON DECEMBER 20.
ACCORDING TO MAKHLUF, BASHAR WILL BE PRIMARILY
RESPONSIBLE FOR ENSURING THE PROPER OPERATION OF
SYRIAN GOVERNMENT AGENCIES, MANY OF WHICH, SAID
MAKHLUF, ARE RIVEN WITH INCOMPETENCE AND
CORRUPTION. PRESIDENT ASAD, MAKHLUF NOTED, HAD HAD
TO CARRY TOO LARGE A BURDEN SINCE BASIL'S DEATH,
AND BASHAR SHOULD NOW BE IN A POSITION TO SHOULDER
SOME OF THE RESPONSIBILITIES OF RULING.
4. IN RESPONSE TO THE DCM'S QUESTION, MAKHLUF
INDICATED THAT, UNLIKE BASIL, BASHAR WOULD NOT HAVE
A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN LEBANON (SEE REPORTING IN
OTHER CHANNELS POINTING TO HIS AND LEBANESE
LEADERS' EFFORTS TG BUILD TIES TO ONE ANOTHER), AND
WOULD FOCUS ON THE SYRIAN INTERNAL SCENE. MAKHLUF
SAID THAT THE PRESS OF FOREIGN POLICY, INCLUDING
THE PEACE PROCESS AND INTENSIFIED RELATIONS WITH
EGYPT, LEFT LITTLE TIME FOR ASAD TO DEAL WITH
DOMESTIC ISSUES, THUS CREATING A VACUUM, WHICH
BASHAR WOULD NOW BE EXPECTED TO FILL. MAKHLUF
EMPHASIZED BASHAR'S FITNESS FOR HIS NEW ROLE,
CLAIMING THAT A FEW MONTHS OF TRAINING HAD MADE HIM
A "REAL MILITARY MAN." (COMMENT: SINCE MOST
POLITICAL FIGURES OF ANY CONSEQUENCE IN SYRIA HAVE
MILITARY BACKGROUNDS, BASHAR'S HAVING THEORETICALLY
BECOME A SOLDIER LENDS HIM AT LEAST A FACADE OF
CREDIBILITY. END COMMENT)
SYRIA WANTS OUT OF LEBANON, UNLESS...
-------------------------------------
5. ON THE SUBJECT OF SYRIA'S PRESENCE IN LEBANON,
MAKHLUF COMPLAINED ABOUT THE COSTS, BOTH FINANCIAL
AND IN LOSS OF READINESS, FOR THE SYRIAN MILITARY.
HE SAID THAT, WITH PEACE, SYRIA WOULD WITHDRAW FROM
LEBANON. MAKHLUF FOLLOWED THIS SEEMINGLY EMPHATIC
STATEMENT WITH THE QUALIFIER THAT THIS POLICY WAS
FIRM, UNLESS, OF COURSE, THE GOL "INSISTED" THAT
SOME SYRIAN FORCES REMAIN. HE ADDED THAT, WITH
PEACE, HIZBALLAH WOULD BE "ELIMINATED" (AS A
MILITARY ENTITY) BY THE LEBANESE ARMED FORCES,
WITH SYRIAN SUPPORT.
6. AS EVIDENCE OF THE BENEFITS TO LEBANON OF
SYRIA'S PRESENCE IN LEBANON, MAKHLUF CITED ACTIVITY
AGAINST THE "POISON" OF NARCOTICS, SAYING THAT
SYRIA HAD SUCCEEDED IN ELIMINATING NARCOTICS
CULTIVATION IN ITS NEIGHBOR'S LAND, WHERE THE U.S.
HAD FAILED IN SIMILAR ATTEMPTS.
7. IN REPONSE TO THE DCM'S STATEMENT THAT WE
ACKNOWLEDGE SYRIA'S AND LEBANON'S EFFECTIVE ACTIONS
AGAINST CULTIVATORS, BUT WANT MORE DONE AGAINST THE
UBIQUITOUS PROCESSING LABS, MAKHLUF CLAIMED THAT
SYRIA DID NOT WANT TO INTERFERE WITH LEBANON'S
DAILY OPERATIONS BECAUSE SUCH ACTIVITIES INEVITABLY
LED TO CRITICISM OF SYRIA FOR DEROGATING LEBANESE
SOVEREIGNTY, A FACTOR WHICH HE ALSO CLAIMED KEPT
SYRIAN TROOPS FROM CONDUCTING LARGE, VISIBLE
TRAINING OPERATIONS IN LEBANON. INSTEAD, SYRIA
PREFERRED TO KEEP ITS TROOPS LARGELY IN THEIR
GARRISONS AND RESPOND ONLY TO LEBANESE REQUESTS FOR
ASSISTANCE. MAKHLUF LAMENTED SYRIA'S INABILITY TO
PUBLICIZE ITS "GOOD DEEDS" IN LEBANON, SUCH AS
RECONCILING ITS LEADERS OR COMBATTING DRUGS BECAUSE
SUCH WORDS WOULD BE EXPLOITED TO CRITICIZE SYRIA'S
BENEFICENT ROLE.
LATEST LINE ON THE PEACE PROCESS
--------------------------------
8. MAKHLUF LARGELY STUCK TO THE CURRENT SYRIAN
PUBLIC LINE ON THE PEACE PROCESS. THE PRESIDENT,
INDEED, HAD MADE A STRATEGIC DECISION FOR PEACE,
BUT HE WOULD INSIST THAT IT BE WITH DIGNITY AND
HONOR. HE EMPHASIZED THAT SYRIA INSISTS ON A
CONTINUED U.S. ROLE AND THAT SECRET, DIRECT TALKS
WITH ISRAEL WERE UNACCEPTABLE. MAKHLUF REITERATED
ASAD'S COMMITMENT TO THE PEACE PROCESS UNDER U.S.
AUSPICES, BUT CONSTANTLY EXPRESSED SUSPICIONS ABOUT
ISRAEL'S ULTIMATE INTENTIONS. CHARACTERISTICALLY,
HE DERIDED THE ISRAELI AGREEMENTS WITH THE PLO AND
JORDAN. MAKHLUF SAID THAT ASAD WOULD ONLY LOOK FOR
A STRATEGY OTHER THAN U.S. MEDIATION IF HE FELT
THAT SUCH MEDIATION ABSOLUTELY WOULD NOT WORK.
(COMMENT: THIS LAST EXPRESSION WAS AMBIGUOUS, BUT
IT SEEMS MORE LIKELY TO BE AN IMPLICIT THREAT OF
RENEWED PROXY VIOLENCE, THAN CONSIDERATION OF
DIRECT TALKS. END COMMENT)
9. MAKHLUF SAID THAT A FRIEND OF HIS VISITING THE
U.S. HAD BEEN APPROACHED BY A "SENIOR AMERICAN JEW"
WHO SAID THAT SYRIA COULD DO FAR BETTER DEALING
DIRECTLY WITH ISRAEL THAN THROUGH THE U.S., AND
OFFERED TO BROKER SUCH CONTACTS. MAKHLUF SAID HE
HAD SENT HIS FRIEND TO TELL HIS STORY TO THE
FONMIN, BUT THAT THERE HAD BEEN NO CHANGE IN ASAD'S
POLICY ON THE BASIS OF THIS OR ANY OTHER ISRAELI
APPROACH. MAKHLUF SAID THAT SYRIA WANTS A REAL
PEACE, NOT A FAKE OR A FANTASY PEACE, AS EXISTS
BETWEEN ISRAEL AND SOME OF THE OTHER ARABS.
10. MAKHLUF ADDED THAT HIS READING OF HISTORY
CONVINCED HIM THAT THE ISRAELIS/JEWS ONLY PROTECTED
THEIR OWN INTERESTS AND THAT THE U.S. WAS
DISPLAYING "NAIVETE" IN PROMOTING ISRAELI/GULF
CONTACTS. (COMMENT: THIS REMARK ALLUDES TO AN
EARLIER CONVERSATION MAKHLUF HAD WITH US IN WHICH
HE WARNED THAT ISRAEL SOUGHT TO DOMINATE TRADE IN
THE REGION'S OIL TO THE DETRIMENT OF U.S. STRATEGIC
AND COMMERCIAL INTERESTS.) MAKHLUF EXPRESSED
MYSTIFICATION AS TO WHY THE ISRAELIS WOULD WANT
DIRECT NEGOTIATIONS WITH SYRIA, SINCE WITHOUT U.S.
SUPPORT, THERE WOULD BE NO ISRAEL.
MAKHLUF WANTS "TO HELP" BOEING
----------------------------
11. AFTER A GENERAL DISCUSSION OF THE DESIRABILITY
OF INCREASED U.S. PARTICIPATION IN THE SYRIAN
ECONOMY, MAKHLUF QUICKLY TURNED THE DISCUSSION TO
BOEING'S INTEREST IN SELLING CIVILIAN AIRCRAFT TO
SYRIAN ARAB AIRLINES (SAA). AFTER STATING THAT
BOEING'S CURRENT LOCAL AGENT WAS HIS "FRIEND,"
MAKHLUF WENT ON TO SAY THAT HE WAS NOT COMPETENT TO
MAKE THIS DEAL. AIRBUS, ON THE OTHER HAND, HAD
MADE SIGNIFICANT CONCESSIONS IN ITS PROPOSED DEAL
WITH SAA AND WAS NEARLY READY TO SIGN. IN ANSWER
TO ECONOFF'S QUESTION ABOUT THE UTILITY OF ANY
AGENT SINCE THE PRESIDENT WOULD DECIDE PERSONALLY
ABOUT THIS PURCHASE, MAKHLUF SAID THAT EVEN THE
PRESIDENT COULD NOT DECIDE ON BOEING IF AIRBUS
OFFERED A MUCH BETTER DEAL, AND THE RIGHT AGENT
COULD ENSURE THAT SUCH WAS NOT THE CASE. NOT
SURPRISINGLY, MAKHLUF THEN SAID THAT HE AND HIS SON
WANTED VERY MUCH TO MEET WITH BOEING. ECONOFF SAID
HE WOULD CONVEY THIS INFORMATION TO BOEING.
12. COMMENT: MAKHLUF, WHO IS NOT WITHOUT A
CERTAIN ROGUISH CHARM, NEVERTHELESS WEARS HIS
BIGOTRY AND AVARICE ON HIS WELL-TAILORED SLEEVE.
WE CONVEY HIS VIEWS AS AN INDICATION OF WHAT ASAD
IS LIKELY TELLING TO AND HEARING FROM THOSE AROUND
HIM. HIS COMMENTS ON THE NEED FOR BASHAR TO BECOME
MORE ACTIVE ON THE DOMESTIC SCENE ARE CONSISTENT
WITH ALL OTHER REPORTING AVAILABLE TO US. HOWEVER,
DESPITE MAKHLUF'S COMMENTS TO THE CONTRARY
PRESIDENT ASAD SEEMS TO BE USING BASHAR AND GID
OPERATIVE NASSIF AS COUNTERWEIGHTS TO KHADDAM AND
SHIHABI IN LEBANON. AS FOR THE PEACE PROCESS,
MAKHLUF'S BLUNT COMMENTS ACCURATELY REFLECT THE
SUSPICIONS WITH WHICH ASAD AND HIS INNER CIRCLE
VIEW ISRAELI INTENTIONS, AND THEIR CONCERNS ABOUT
THE WEAKNESS OF THEIR OWN MILITARY/DIPLOMATIC
POSITION VIS A VIS ISRAEL. FOR THEM, THE U.S. ROLE
IS ESSENTIAL AND THE DEALS CONCLUDED BETWEEN ISRAEL
ON THE ONE HAND AND JORDAN AND THE PLO ON THE OTHER
HAVE ONLY REINFORCED THIS CONVICTION.
ROSS