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Thursday, 31 May 2012

As well as
all the trouble about money, breakdowns in the economy and the exercise of
power there is another nasty problem beyond the Euro.

It seems
that the Germans are facing serious problems with their supply of
electricity. The risks of major outages
causing extensive disruption are becoming high and it is not just Germany that is
involved.

An article
in the Oil Drum site, “German Power Grids Becoming Increasingly Strained”
discusses the issue in around 3000 words.
It is worth checking out if only as a fast read.

Quote:

On 4 November
2006 a German 380 kV line had to be temporarily disconnected. Due to
insufficient coordination of protection systems a circuit tripped and started
cascading outages.

The result was
that the continental grid in Europe was
divided into three islands and about 17 GW load was shed. The case demonstrates
how a local event in Germany
can turn into a widespread European disturbance.

There have
been suggestions that in parts of the USA the grids are becoming out
dated and need substantial renewal.
Also, it is possible that the new locations from which the power or its
source originates would require major upgrades to the grid connections.

With major
outages in the UK also being
forecast, what would a series of events like this occurring in both Britain and Germany at the same time do?

Wednesday, 30 May 2012

The web
still amazes, information that might never have accessed or would have taken
months to discover and beg or borrow a copy can just pop up or there is someone
that knows.

The date is
Thursday 5th May 1955 when in Europe the Federal Republic of Germany,
the West, formed in 1949 under Allied tutelage became a sovereign state, member
of NATO and was admitted, more or less, to the family of nations, although with
strictly limited military capacity.

In July
1945 units from the 7th Armoured Division, shoulder flash the Desert
Rat had paraded in Berlin
as the representatives of the British Army before the Allied leaders, Churchill
personally commended them. In May 1955
because of Berlin’s
different status surrounded by the Soviet controlled Eastern Zone there was no
parading.

In fact the
ending of the British Army of Occupation and the others was all quite low key
and officially little was made of it.
The 7th Armoured Division General Staff had other ideas and
paraded at their own headquarters in Verden with detachments from the various
units if the Division.

This was
not quite as low key as it seems, not only was The Royal Dragoons, now part of
the Blues and Royals Household Cavalry there but also the Fourth Hussars, whose
Colonel in Chief was Sir Winston Churchill who had been Prime Minister until 7th
April 1955.

Just after
1945 there had been some debate about what was to be done about Germany. One extreme idea from some in the USA
was that it should be “pastoralised”, meaning that it more or less should be
all farmland.

Another was
that it should revert to the pre 1871 collection of separate small states and
forbidden to reunite. Each of these
states would have a foreign supervisor to control it.

These ideas
were scuppered by the Cold War, the Iron Curtain and the hostility between the
West and the Soviet Union and its client
states. Something of a united Germany was
necessary as a bulwark although dependent on NATO forces.

But from 5th
May 1955 day Western Germany was free to purse its own economic policies and
was not involved to any great extent in all the world affairs that demanded
that the UK
and others commit huge efforts and military involvement, all at a cost.

After all,
it was politics and power around the world that matters, not economics. So by nearly twenty years later the UK was
scrambling to be admitted to the newly developed European Common Market on
almost any terms because of the disastrous state of its economy and its consequential
inability to govern.

As the
Common Market developed with France
and Germany at the centre,
despite all our claims and posturing to be at “the heart of Europe” the growth
and capability of the newly founded German economy, largely free of the
international burdens and any of the fall out from Empire endured by France and the UK.

This led to
the foundation of the European Monetary System (EMS) in 1979 and as far as
money matters were concerned the Germans were very much at the centre and if
not in control could not be controlled.

The
politicians wanted to drive on to a Federal Europe. After the reuniting of East and West Germany stresses developed, notably because
Italy in particular and
others had not been minding their monetary affairs wisely, the EMS blew fuses in 1992.
One effect was to cause long term damage to the credibility of the UK
Conservative party.

The upshot
of this was the political decision to create a single money system. So the Euro came into being on 1st
January 1999 with German and the European Central Bank very much at the helm. Whilst the Goldilocks economy, pumped up by
vast credit expansion, lasted, all was well.

Germany
only needed to have a light hand on the tiller and the EU could go on with the
charade of ever increasing spending and commitments and mutual back scratching
because the money always flowed according to the whims of the governments.

Now there
is another breakdown and all is uncertain.
But if any state in Europe is to have the final say and assume control
of the economies of the Euro Zone then it will be Germany. Possibly the first Target For Tonight will be
the financial sector notably the problems perceived by the failures of control
and laxity of the City of London.

Meanwhile
the remnants of the British Army will soon be repatriated from Germany. Amongst them will be the 7th
Armoured Brigade who retained the right to use of the Desert Rat after the
disbandment of the Division in the late 1950’s.

Will they
parade when they leave or will they just skulk off to the ferries? Will they then be disbanded because there is
nowhere for them to go in the UK?

Tuesday, 29 May 2012

The 2010 diagram above originates with the International
Monetary Fund, the IMF, then via Thomson Reuters and Tax Research into Richard
Murphy today’s posting on that site. It
tries to show that the problem of Greece is complicated.

In the meantime we have governments, international bodies,
the EU and leading states attempting to deal with a situation that is
developing and becoming more complex than their thinking and functioning powers
can keep up with.

In short it is truly chaotic. Additionally, around all those many financial
entities, expressed as political jurisdictions there is a great deal of money
movement and the rest that is simply not known nor accounted for.

But it is not the political entities that are controlling
all that money and money denominated instruments of financial trading of many
kinds. It is a range of financial
corporations few of whom know what they are doing only why. That is to survive at least and at best
extract fortunes for the few.

It is easy to lose sight of the detail (or the fine print)
and as in all things it is often these that matter, as your insurance company
will remind you when you make a claim that is turned down.

The Slog has picked up on one today and has discussed it in
a typical wordy post that at least tries to ask the questions even if the
answers are far from clear. This is
because the UK Treasury has just suddenly and without discussion or publicity
of any kind, revoked a 72 year old restriction on trading in negotiable bonds.

In short, a restriction that applied to 21 former enemies
(so few?), largely in Europe that affected a
number of monetary instruments no longer applies. That this was not done in the last fifty
years is an interesting question. The
main question is why now and in the middle of a growing crisis that is out
control?

It has occurred also at a time when the Home Secretary,
Theresa May, has been severely criticized for suggesting that if large numbers
of Greeks head this way with any form of money they can lay there hands on,
they should be spurned entry.

There is the other question of where they might go. There are already numbers of Greeks with us,
notably in East London, with or without
tickets for their local Olympic Games in a few weeks. If many more turn up with a lot of money to
use then the existing London
property bubble may go fit to burst.

The politicians can only chatter and try to dominate the
media and allocate blame. They cannot do
much; the doing will be done by the financial interests and their
associates. Other doing will be by
Greeks voting with their feet.

Apparently, the Olympic Torch relay today went to the top of
MountSnowdon.
That must be an omen of some kind.
As the Oracle at Delphi is no help
these days perhaps the torch should be redirected to the Shrine of St. Winifred
at Holywell in Flintshire.

According to Wikipedia she is the “unofficially adopted” patron
saint of payrolls and payroll clerks and may be prayed to for guarding against
unwanted advances.

It is a
parable for our times. He suggested that
the Vatican Bank needs a good Compliance Officer to sort things out and knows
just the person to do it.

Also, that
person would make an excellent Cardinal who can tell the difference between
dogma and doctored accounts.

The only
snag is that there seems to be a technical problem of status that would debar
her. Surely, the EU must have a
Directive or law to forbid this?

So tonight
perhaps the bootleg recording of the BBC Prom of Sir Simon Rattle with the
National Youth Orchestra on 11 August 2002 doing Mahler’s 8th, with
the hymn “Veni Creator Spiritus”. It was
a wonderful performance.

On his way
into the Royal Albert Hall he encountered us outside. “You know, you Prommers are all mad.” He said, having done time in the Arena. “It takes one to know one” was my reply. After all, beneath the style, he remains a
Scouser.

Gustav
Mahler, I believe, had his vision of Europe,
but preferred to keep his cash reserves in Maria Theresa Thaler’s. What he would have made of the Vatican being
involved in financial malpractices, the gifts that from the Spirit flow, we
shall never know.

Perhaps he
would have written something based on Machiavelli or Dante instead.

Friday, 25 May 2012

The real
issue facing Europe and causing the most
acrimony is of course the Eurovision song contest which is to blast the ears
and boggle the eyes tomorrow night, Saturday, asteroids and ancient prophesies
willing.

Azerbaijan is the country that is hosting it
and Baku the
location. The choice was made by the
performers from that country winning last year, so the complaints about it are
met by “rules are rules” responses.

Our fair
nation is being represented by one of my contemporaries, yes he is that old,
Arnold Dorsey, stage name Engelbert Humperdinck who might have been the oldest
ever contestant but has been upstaged by some Russian ladies of even greater
age.

The hot
money is on the Russian Dancing Great Grannies.
So whether there will more protests next year is an open question. But given the shady behind doors fixes and
betting plans it might by anyone.

The Bureau
of Investigative Journalism has taken an interest, not as a break from the
usual stuff, but because its government, financing and human interest issues
give it cause to raise questions about both the nature of regime and its
closeness to people in London.

Although
based in California where he has spent much of
his life Arnold also had a pad, a big one, at
Kirby Muxloe by Leicester, once a decidedly
posh place to live. The people who lived
there when Arnold
was a lad were the sort who owned cars, had full china tea sets and read newspapers
with a lot of big words in them.

It was a
place to aspire to if you climbed the greasy, or greased pole of local life and
commerce and like most of the villages and communities of the Shire had a long
and complicated history.

During the
time of the Wars of the Roses in the 15th Century it was the hands
of the Hastings
family. These were one of the most
prominent families in the Midlands and it was
at Kirby that William Hastings began to build a major new home, above.

Unluckily,
he was one of the losers in the vicious infighting that occurred during the
reign of King Richard III, losing his head at the Tower of London
in 1483 and the castle remained unfinished.

The King
lost his life a few miles down the road at the Battle of Bosworth Field of
1485. When his remains were being
conveyed into Leicester over the back of a horse the head was banged against
the parapet on entering into Leicester along
the road from Kirby.

Let us hope
that Arnold keeps his head and makes it back to California or Kirby in
one piece. He might even get a booking
to appear with the Great Grannies in Moscow.

Thursday, 24 May 2012

An
intriguing combination of items came up in today’s rattling around the
web. The more things change the more
they remain the same. Both are quite
short but in terms of time between very long, one being the Neolithic, the
other current nonsense,

The first
attempts to explain what will happen in East London
once the circus has ended and the caravans departed from the Olympics
“village”. It seems that there is to be
a major property development which will amount to a private new town.

It will not
operate under any of our present arrangements for local government or other
similar inconveniences which raises the question of who it is for and who will
be the financial operators. Guess what? There are no clear answers and nobody appears
to be in charge.

The second
is that recent research suggests that the causewayed enclosures that were
constructed during the Neolithic period did not take hundreds or thousands of
years to be built. Indeed, it is argued
that it took only 75 years or so for them to spread across the Atlantic Isles.

What is a
source of wonder is when you calculate how much work had to be done and what
was involved then just what was the size of the population then and who were
these people?

This is a Europe we know little or nothing about, notably who the
people were, what or who they worshipped, how they communicated or what their
social organisation was.

But to
build on this scale and with this rapidity, organise food supplies to maintain
the population and to know the heavens as they seem to have done suggests a
very able, intelligent population connected with others over a wide area.

What
happened to them? Perhaps, in the future
when the diggers find the remains of a 21st Century transformation
of the Atlantic Isles from one form of political organisation to a collection
of privately owned fiefdoms into which a servile population had been herded
they might wonder why.

Wednesday, 23 May 2012

At the end
of the next football season it will be sixty years since Liverpool
were relegated from the then Division One to Division Two in 1952-1953. To add insult to injury they were replaced by
Everton who had been relegated a couple of seasons before. The other side that went down was
Middlesbrough replaced by LeicesterCity.

The
previous season, 1951-1952 Liverpool had finished at half way after showing
some promise but which tailed off in the later half. Those of us with memories of that unhappy time
will be uncomfortably aware that we could be in for a repeat.

It was a
time when the owners were in dispute, there was disarray in management and in
the dressing room and the club, despite the level of its support did not have
the cash to rebuild a team that had enjoyed success since the end of the War.

This season
after the turn of the year Liverpool’s form was that of a relegation team and
it was only that enough points had been gained earlier to keep them up at the
half way level. If they begin next
season in this way they may not recover.

Their luck
in the Carling Cup means that they have a place in the lesser European contest
but as too many clubs have discovered the fixture and injury complications from
the many games these involve, not exactly big crowd games, could seriously
impair what needs to be done in The Premiership.

Next years
Premiership has all the signs of being highly competitive with a number of well
funded teams able to take care of themselves.
It would be very easy for Liverpool in
their current state to be locked into the grim struggle as one of four or five
teams desperate to retain their place.

Sixty years
ago they were not scoring enough goals.
This season has been much the same and has meant dropping points against
sides in games they should have been taking the maximum points from.

The lower
divisions of the football league are littered with teams that were once great
names, even in the Conference there are some to be found that at one time
enjoyed a time at the highest level.

In the next
few seasons it is inevitable that some teams now in the Premiership will drop
down to lower levels to join all those clubs of the past whose ageing fans
cling on to either their own memories or those of their parents or
grandparents.

Often in
the past such falls have been down to bad management, disagreements between
owners and over optimism about the accounts.
All these are in place at Liverpool who
in addition have the modern curse of the cloud of agents, financial advisers,
lawyers and consultants taking much of the money and increasing the levels of
debt.

From “The
Political Economy Of Football” an item “Talking To The Lawyers” taken from “The
Lawyer” of 22 May “Heading Skills” dealing with the legal in and outs of
several Premiership Clubs. This is the
item on Liverpool.

Quote:

Liverpool FC

When things are
going well at a football club, as it is for ManchesterCity’s
Simon Cliff, it can be a dream job for a sports-loving lawyer.

Two years ago,
when The Lawyer spoke to Liverpool general
counsel Natalie Wignall (22 March 2010), this was undoubtedly the case. But if
two years is a long time in football, sometimes so is a day.

Between The
Lawyer arranging to speak to Wignall last week and the actual interview the
following day, manager and club legend ‘King’ Kenny Dalglish had left the club
and Wignall was tied up in negotiations.

It has been a
tumultuous season for Wignall and her beloved Reds, with several executive
departures creating a climate of uncertainty.

Liverpool’s
director of football Damien Comolli left last month, followed quickly by club
sports science head Dr Peter Brukner and goalkeeping coach John Achterberg.

There has been
speculation that the club’s owner, the US-based Fenway Sports Group, was
unhappy with the way the Luis Suarez race claim case was handled by its legal
advisers.

But the club was
then roundly condemned for its stance in support of Suarez after he was banned
for eight games.

Wignall
previously told The Lawyer that the in-house legal role was her “dream job”.
She has been at the club during a testing time, with legal wrangles on and off
the field, including the international dispute over the club’s ownership
(TheLawyer.com, 8 March 2012).

The ongoing
action has brought work to a number of the North West city’s law firms.

“I have to pinch
myself when I come in to work every day,” the born-and-bred Scouser, who lives
within walking distance of Liverpool’s Melwood training ground, told The Lawyer
in 2010. “It’s just the best job in the world.”

She conceded that
the intense scrutiny of the club can be difficult to deal with.

“It’s the extent
to which everything you do is in the public eye,” she says. “It’s just not like
any other business where you might win and lose big contracts, but either way
you get on with it. Here the performances on the pitch affect the business so
much more.”

Unquote

In the
media we are constantly told that the English Premiership is the market leader
in the world with huge revenues to come from all those foreigners daft enough
to be persuaded to show loyalty to the brands in question. We are told that this is all “good for
growth” and national pride and all that.

With most
of the Premiership now in foreign ownership, most of the leading players from
further shores, most of the huge debts owed to global financial interests and
most of the revenue going into players off shore accounts it would be a sector
of the economy that would be closed down if it were not still capable of being
able to part fools from their money.

Or the
Premiership may simply be one of the world’s most obvious money laundries. I do hope George Osborne enjoyed his works
outing to Munich with the Chelsea people. Perhaps he learned some lessons in debt
management there.

Liverpool may survive at the top, but don’t bet on it or ask one of the teams of
lawyers to advise you.

Tuesday, 22 May 2012

Thin posts
this week, up to a point; but for today if others are saying a lot it is worth
pointing to them.

The first
item is a site that normally wants to see the markets doing well and things on
the up. So they tend to be optimistic
about finding some good news somewhere to encourage investments.

The item is
a longish one, but does say a lot from an American standpoint. It means that what some of us thought
possible, that the 2007-2008 Crash was just the beginning may well turn out to
be the case.

The second
is about the Clinton’s
and power, or rather not being in power and the profits to be had from it. Tellingly, the last Act of Bill Clinton’s
Presidency was to sign off a bill deregulating derivative trading.

Whatever
has happened to other people it seems that he has made a good living
since. You may make your own list of UK politicians
who have been doing very well since they left office.

If there is
to be another period when the world economy wicket gets sticky and we return to
the breathless hush in the close with last man in the two obvious periods in
the immediate future seem to be early June or then late July into August.

In the
meantime the North Anatolian Fault has been “bracketed” both to the East and to
the West by earthquakes on either side of the suggested site of the long
predicted next big one.

Sunday, 20 May 2012

On Friday, 18 May, Fraser Nelson in “The Spectator”
had an article “No Time To Tinker” about government policy on the economy. One part of it dealt with the notion of Five
Year Plans, as below:

Quote:

3. There's no shame in Osborne thinking again.
I can understand why the Chancellor repeated Brown's policy of publishing a
five-year spending plan: the markets wanted a credible deficit reduction plan,
and Osborne has certainly given them one.

But no battle plan survives contact with the enemy. There is
no indignity in adapting to changing circumstances, nor in changing direction.
Osborne badly needs to. Because he's on a road to nowhere.

I once asked Black Swan author Nassim Taleb what he thought
of five-year Budget plans. 'Bullshit,' he replied with a smile. 'Look at past
five-year plans, how many have worked?

It's like someone getting married eight times, each time
thinking "this time it's for love."' I asked him how long should
governments draw their budgets for. 'One year at a time,' he said. 'The error
margin for five years is monstrous.'

Unquote

How the idea of “Five Year Plans” came to be I am not sure
but in my mind it is indelibly associated with the former Soviet
Union and its many capital projects. “The Plan” or rather the figures within it
had to be applied often almost regardless of the situation developing on the
ground.

It is arguable that the devotion of the USSR to statistics
and plans of this kind meant in effect that Gosplan (see Wikipedia) came to be
the dominant force and in the end the source of so many errors, inefficiencies
and unintended consequences that it was central not just to economic planning
but to the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Given the present uncertain, highly mobile state of the
world, the rapidity of change and the fragility of international markets and
political confusion in almost every major state over the last decade, the
notion of Five Year Plans is almost a collective madness or a dogma destined to
destroy those who believe in it.

In order to plan a train journey I need reliable
information. So I consult
timetables. How many times in the last
decade the actual services on the day have been at odds with the timetable or I
have had to make last minute significant adjustments to both timings and routing
is not known. What I do know is that the
number is a large one.

Economic data is a lot more complicated, difficult to
collect and sift with any certainty of reliability or truth or firm
analysis. As it is the past, perhaps
months old, it cannot be the present and predicating a future in an economy,
national or global that is in constant flux is at best a high class guessing
game.

All too clearly, all the fine plans, intentions and
certainties for the future of 2005 and 2006 have evaporated. The Treasury’s plans fell apart, other
countries plans fell apart and now the Euro may fall apart and for that matter
the current dollar zone is likely to as well given the leverages of the major US
finance corporations.

It is not going to suddenly get better and all that
information flowing about is no more reliable than at any other period. In any case the US Congress has decided to
make major economies in the collection of basic statistics which will add
immensely to the confusion.

Yet our Parliament and key machinery of government are still
devoted to the idea that we can proceed safely and wisely on the basis of
planning for a period of five years, with the implications that these will roll
on forward into the next and then the next.
Perhaps they think it is what we want to hear.

Can anyone in Whitehall
come up with a five year plan based on Chaos Theory?

Saturday, 19 May 2012

Another
brief post; if only as a relief from all the long, very serious and complicated
ones being read on the web at present.

The answer
to the current Euro crisis is quite simple.
It is to reinstate the Maria Theresa Thaler (see Wikipedia) as the basic
currency of Europe, benchmarking a variety of
other currencies against it.

Furthermore,
fiat currency issue (paper money) should be one hundred per cent backed by
reserves of the MTT and credit creation by banks and others limited to four
times only of their holdings of the hard currency MTT reserve.

How could
this policy be put across to the general public? It could be called “Back To Basics”.

There would
need to be an appropriate regulatory regime in place in each country with an
adequate criminal law to guard against counterfeiting, fraud and financial
malpractice.

If we were
to use the experiences of the past in these matters it might be difficult to
know where to transport convicts to but I am sure somewhere could be found.

It might
seem to be an outlandish suggestion but it could be better than the
alternatives we face.

Friday, 18 May 2012

Given the
course of events, it is clear that what is happening in the Eurozone and other
parts connected or adjacent to it is very like when my home computer
begins glitching and twitching.

Whilst it
might need a new operating system, world government or anarchy or tribal
reversion or back to hunter gatherings perhaps we should see if the problems
arise from any current programme in use.

We could
try re-installing the Europe programme to
begin again as above but the next time round do a better job on the settings
and temporary governing files.

We may
finish up with something like this in any case.
Looking at the most western areas if the current occupants of Ireland do all
emigrate then the Scoti could return there allowing a welcome return of the
Picts.

If we get
automatic shut down when it does reboot then it might be similar, who knows?

Thursday, 17 May 2012

Last night,
Wednesday, we went cinema world wide in full HD, well not quite. It was a six camera live screening of a
performance and we were behind and alongside cameras and very likely nowhere to
be seen. This would have been a great
relief to those who paid up front to see something colourful and interesting.

Which they
did, it was of a very high standard and because I was able to detect what was
going out live from the back of a camera ahead of me, all those out there
across the globe will have had their money’s worth and got what they paid for.

Thinking
about the other screened live or recorded programmes or events we have attended
down the years and contrasting with the present is intriguing. There have been quite a number, but the
question was how many are still in the archives and what about all the events
that were not filmed?

From time
to time on TV there are programmes dealing with the past that rely on archive
footage of amateur film making. It is
clear that, although very expensive, it was possible at an early stage to film
in colour and also in black on white.
The problem was sound recording for the most part.

But this
was not impossible to achieve. By the
1960’s technical advances had made it all much easier and far less costly for
ordinary people, let alone others with funds.
But a great many of leading events are often only recorded by accident,
in heavily cut news reels or by people with no official standing.

Yet in the
Arts generally, never mind other sport and activities, there was a general
reluctance to resort to film productions or events. When I think about all the plays, music,
dance and other major events that might have been put on film, there has been a
huge loss of both history and record in these fields.

There are
some archives, notably the BBC one, but this is an intractable one to find
anything and involves penal charging.
The BBC often seems almost resolute not to have its lovely archive
material exposed to the view of common people.

The result
is that in documentaries or the study of something there are only scraps at
memories, fading partial memories and written only information. Yet the chance was there to record, store,
maintain and renew it from one time to another.

Perhaps
there were some people arguing that something should be done to create,
maintain and enable an archive or archives on film but it may be not. Why did it not occur to some group of far
sighted people that this could and should be done? It would not have been too difficult or too
costly at least to do a basic film of record so that a particular production or
event could be remembered as it was.

One can
understand all the querulous carping about copyright, who was to do what and
why it was to be done and who would be responsible. But the technology was and could have been
made available.

It is not
just that we have lost a way of understanding and appreciating the past, in a
way we have lost a part of what we are and will be.

Tuesday, 15 May 2012

Looking
around the media, the web and the rest it is quite clear that whilst there are
a lot of able, highly intelligent, well informed and well connected people the
pace of events and the complexity means that nobody can claim to have a full
understanding of what is happening financially and politically.

By
definition the politicians who are supposed to be making key decisions now work
on a lot less information, data and analysis and need to be advised by people
who do know more and have the ability to understand more fully.

The
difficulty then is that if what the people who voted in or critically support
those politicians do not like the advice and the implications then almost
inevitably there is a desire to delay, attempt compromise where none is to be had
or to evade making decisions at all.

Worse, is
that if the channels to those politicians are controlled or policed by people
with particular interests to serve then the distortions could be serious and
damaging in the process of determining policy.
We have been here a few times in history, think of your own examples.

At present
around the world it seems that all of them have not simply “lost the picture”
they do not know what they are looking at.
They want the picture to be a Renoir when at best it is a Jackson
Pollock. Not only that but it is one
which Pollock created intuitively or according to whim.

Even then
that picture is replaced by another one apparently quite different perhaps
shifting more towards one fractal shape before morphing suddenly into
another. In short not just the
politicians, or their advisers, but all the experts and commentators are behind
the game.

Those who
may be closer to any understanding in the present world crisis seem to be now
reaching the point where they feel no understanding is to be had because by the
time you have got the message out and circulated it has all moved on and fast.

But the
public and people as a whole want simple answers and clear policies and most
some sort of security and protection from economic storms and dangers. Inevitably, the come to feel they are being
lied to or the victims of conspiracies by “the other”.

This is how
in the past dictatorships and authoritarian governments have arisen in states
and polities where serious upheavals have occurred. It seems to be happening around the world one
way or another, including the UK
and the USA.

So will
Western Civilisation as we know it today begin its end in Greece which is
where is it supposed to have begun?

There was a
twitch on the North Anatolian Fault Line yesterday; perhaps the ancient gods
are awakening.

Monday, 14 May 2012

A mail
plopped into the inbox about three of weeks ago. It was an invitation to a reception at the
House of Lords. Preening myself I was
about to compose an elegant reply of acceptance grateful at last that I had
been recognised when native caution made me scroll down to the fine print.

There was a
charge, no less than £55 a head. As I
need company in my travels that meant two.
Adding on rail fares, car parking and incidentals the figures were
rising over £150 for the occasion.

There was
also mention of those who the invitation had been directed to and this was not
encouraging. Essentially, it would be a
pack of “has beens” meeting up with a few ennobled “yesterdays persons” for
what appeared to be a last and spurious gasp of networking.

The chances
on that if lucky there would be two or three more or less five minutes gabbing
about current obsessions in which to deliver my message that forcing the nation
back to a 1940’s diet of cabbage, potatoes and denial of personal transport
would end the obesity crisis might have a hearing by persons of influence.

The rest of
the session probably would mean trying to join a huddle of other “has beens” in
which some sentient life might be found to exchange anecdotes that had become
honed for delivery over many years.

The
refreshments on offer were all too likely to be second rate nibbles, third rate
wine, or if driving inorganic orange juice.
We would then stagger out into the night hoping only that by dropping
the line “We were at the House of Lords talking to Lord Bunfight, you know he
was…..” we might impress either neighbours or tradesmen.

Her Majesty
was at the House of Lords last week promising to reform them again. When this appears in the draft of her speech
she must wonder if the Cabinet computer “paste” function in the word processor
has become stuck because here it is again.

As many
have observed at the moment there are better things to be spending our
government’s and Parliament’s time on.
There is a great deal to do.
Especially, as in the proposals for reform it is far from clear what the
House of Lords is supposed to be doing or why.

It is usual
in a nation’s constitution pay some attention to this kind of thing but that is
not the way we do things in the UK
any more. But in many ways it is all a
little sad when we look at history and the grandeur and state of the past.

The House
of Lords began when the military equestrian elite were nobility, almost all of
them descended from, related to or closely connected to the King. Down the years it began to accommodate the
wealthy land owners and a few others adding the bishops and top lawyers.

Through the
18th and 19th Centuries, inflation set in as political
parties contended for control of this body that could veto most legislation
proposed by the Commons, until more radical changes occurred during the 29th
Century.

Now there
is this numerically bloated body of place persons, hanger’s on, government
appointees of expediency and redundant ministers swanning around looking for
things to do.

One of them
is being wheeled out to talk to hapless members of the public about this or
that who are obliged to pay for the privilege and who can be “conned” into
coming. At least they come a lot cheaper
than the current cost of contact facilities for members of the government and
opposition front bench.

However,
the market may be drying up, because a couple a days ago a mail arrived to tell
me tickets are still available, perhaps if I hang on there may be a two for one
offer.

Friday, 11 May 2012

Two days
after having posted on Brooksley Born and her stance on over the counter
trading, notably in derivatives, JP Morgan have lost £2 billion on one of its
trading desks, just like that. As the
boss of the man concerned earned £14 million last year, perhaps he was
underpaid and need to moonlight at the expense of the day job.

Rather
longer ago, March 2011, I was wondering if Cameron might not be headed for the
modern equivalent of the Marconi Scandal of 1912 because of his cavalier
approach to contacts and money movement.

In this
case it wasn’t the issue I had in mind, the Serious Fraud Office botched it,
but it has emerged that he was much too close to people he needed to stay way
clear of and whose capacity for causing embarrassment and disaster is
unlimited.

Meanwhile,
over the Channel, it appears that the new very egalitarian and deeply socialist
President has useful property investments in Cannes.
All we need now is the accounts in Zug or Zurich into which the rents are paid.

His
promises of heavy taxes on the rich have sparked great interest in those
selling London
property, in that a flood of French rich people is said to be heading for the
border. They will not be held in a
modern version of Sangatte, however, it will be somewhere with better shops and
wine merchants.

This
supposes that these people have not already made arrangements to protect their
wealth and incomes. My information is
that for many years the French elite have almost all taken the steps necessary
to shield their wealth and have been fully protected by the privacy laws they
enjoy.

The only
reason they may be in London is to snap up property available at present prices
knowing that we and France could be heading for rampant inflation soon from all
the money being slushed into our financial systems to reduce the real
liabilities of governments and their immediate allies.

Amongst
them are institutions such as the Santander Bank. It claims that the problems in Spain will not
affect the British end because that is run by a separate company. Does that means that there is no risk from
systemic issues or just that the UK taxpayer will bail them out
regardless?

The flood
of news and figures is becoming more and more difficult to make sense of. We have governments that cannot govern, civil
services that lose money at a catastrophic rate, banks incapable of banking and
educated workforces unable to find work that requires any sort of extended
education.

One is
almost driven to go out and demonstrate about something. The difficulty is finding something which
makes much sense to demonstrate about.

Thursday, 10 May 2012

The
sorrowful bird above is a recent birth to a well known family of Leipzig parrots. Apparently, it has been rejected by its
mother but has been taken to heart by the locals and with wider coverage.

A while ago
there was an isolated polar bear cub called Knut who faced a similar
predicament. The trouble began when the
cub got bigger and rather less cuddly.
The problem with the parrot is what economic doctrine the European Central
Bank (the ECB) might teach him.

There has
been a good deal of attention given to elections in Greece,
France other places and the UK local
elections. Occasionally, the US
Presidential Election intrudes on our screens, if only when the usual issues
arise.

Almost
nothing has been said about the elections in Germany. These in the regions, or Bundeslander, the
partly sovereign constituent states of the FederalRepublic
matter a deal and are pointers to the future and any potential policy changes
there.

Shortly,
the big one is about to go the polls, Nordrhein Westfalen, although opinion has
it that whatever the changes in the balance of the parties, actual things may
not change much given the imperatives governing German policy at the present.

These are
that Germany
is frantically trying to prop up the Euro system via the ECB. This is not simply out of sincere belief in
the EU but because some of its major banks could be in deep trouble if things
go any more haywire.

In addition
to the Big Banks and what happens in Frankfurt,
the financial centre, there are a great many smaller banks, notably the
Landesbanks that have not been as wise and careful as we expect German
institutions to be. Some of these are
not in good shape and giving cause for concern.

The
political issues at present in Germany
mirror those in other countries in many parts and we will have to see what
emerges. But Germany is not the centralised
state with an all powerful governing city.

Thanks to
British wisdom and guidance along with American beliefs in State Rights in 1955
the FederalRepublic was founded as a decentralised
entity with powerful regional and city authorities reflecting the history and
traditions of Germany. I was there.

However,
the upshot is that ancient history can intrude on the present. What we seem to have is a revival of The
Schleswig Holstein question, see the many Wikipedia items on this. This is because old minorities seem to be
back in business:

In the mid
19th Century, notably in the 1860’s in the run up to the creation of
the German Empire in 1871 this question was at the heart of the struggle. It was very difficult as well as being very
old.

Lord
Palmerston, the British political leader and sometime Prime Minister once said:

“The Schleswig-Holstein question
is so complicated only three men in Europe
have ever understood it. One was Prince
Albert, who is dead. The second was a German professor
who became mad. I am the third and I have forgotten all about it.”

We have become so accustomed in the last 150 years to regard Germany as one
nation, although divided between 1945 and 1990, we forget that for centuries it
was a complex collection of more than 300 states of different kinds.

Perhaps the eagle of Brandenburg is about to be replaced by a
sick parrot.