Without McGreevey, no Christie, experts say

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James. E. McGreevey pauses during a news conference at the Statehouse in Trenton, N.J., where he announced his resignation on Nov. 15, Thursday, Aug. 12, 2004.
Daniel Hulshizer Digital Collections/IPTC

James E. McGreevey is shown with his wife Dina Matos McGreevey and mother Ronnie after a Statehouse press conference announcing that he is gay and will be resigning on November 15 because of an extramarital affair.
Thomas P. Costello Digital Collections/IPTC

James E. McGreevey and his wife Dina Matos McGreevey leave the Statehouse Thursday afternoon. Earlier McGreevey announced a press conference that he is gay and will be resigning on November 15 because of an extramarital affair.
Digital Collections/IPTC

James E. McGreevey, top, walks out the back door of Drumthwacket, the governer's offical residence, In Princeton, N.J., with his wife, Dina Matos McGreevey. for a news conference.
Daniel Hulshizer Digital Collections/IPTC

James E. McGreevey announces during a Thursday press conference at the Statehouse in Trenton, NJ, that he is gay and will be resigning on November 15 because of an extramarital affair. Also shown (l-r): mother Ronie McGreevey, wife Dina Matos McGreevey and at right is his father John.
Jose F. Moreno Digital Collections/IPTC

(L-R) Four past Governors of the state, Jim McGreevey, Christine Todd Whitman, Jim Florio and Thomas Kean, hold awards of recognition presented to them at the New Jersey Conservation Foundation Gala celebrating 50 Years of Conservation at the Frelinghuysen Arboretum in Morris Township, October 30, 2010.
Asbury Park Press

Former Gov. James E. McGreevey (center) resigned in November 2004 after acknowledging he had made an unqualified male lover his homeland security adviser and had concealed his sexuality.
Asbury Park Press

Former Gov. Jim McGreevey listens as Shervette Paschal pauses while speaking to a gathering of female inmates at Integrity House, a transitional housing/residential treatment facility in the state.
Associated Press

In this Tuesday, Aug. 2, 2011 file photograph, former New Jersey Gov. James McGreevey, second left, listens as he sits with a group of inmates gathered at Integrity House, a transitional housing/residential treatment area for women incarcerated at the Hudson County Correctional Center in Kearney, N.J.
Mel Evans AP

Former Governor Jim McGreevey, left greets master of ceremony Robert Kantor, Union County Re-Entry Task Force Chair, as Union county officials hold a Re-Thinking Re-Entry forum. The forum was hosted by the United Way of Greater Union County, Union County College and the Union County Department of Human Services, in which local, county and state officials speak about new initiatives being introduced regarding prison re-entry. The forum was being held at Union County College. 12/03/10
Courier News

Jacqueline McGreevey (front center), speaks with former Gov. Thomas Kean (second from right). With them are her dad, former Gov Jim McGreevey (right) and (left) Vicky McGlynn and her husband, theater board member Rich McGlynn.
Vicky McGlynn and husband Rich McGlynn, a board member of Shakespeare Theatre of NJ, listen in as Jacqueline McGreevey chats with former Governor Thomas Kean, with her dad, former governor Jim McGreevey at right. Shakespeare Theatre of NJ's annual gala at their headquarters in Florham Park, NJ. Saturday, March 22, 2014.
Special to the NJ Press Media/Karen Mancinelli/Daily Record
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Karen Mancinelli Karen Mancinelli

Jim McGreevey makes a point about the branches of government using 9 year old John Miller while teaching a civics class to 4th graders at the Vorhees Elementary School Thursday Sept. 25, 1997.
Digital Collections/IPTC

Jim McGreevey thrusts his fist in the air as he speaks after winning the primary election to become the Democratic candidate for governor in the early morning hours of Wednesday, June 4, 1997, in Woodbridge, N.J.
Daniel Hulshizer Digital Collections/IPTC

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Text: New Jersey Gov. James. E. McGreevey pauses during a news conference at the Statehouse in Trenton, N.J., where he announced his resignation on Nov. 15, Thursday, Aug. 12, 2004. McGreevey announced his resignation Thursday and acknowledged that he had an extramarital affair with another man. "My truth is that I am a gay American," he said. (AP Photo/Daniel Hulshizer)(Photo: Daniel Hulshizer, Digital Collections/IPTC)

TRENTON On Aug. 12, 2004, Gov. James E. McGreevey decided to come clean with himself, his family and the voters. Announcing he was a "gay American," McGreevey told the nation he was resigning and ending the political career he had spent decades building.

While pundits have argued over McGreevey's legacy in the gay rights movement, the political impact of his decision to quit is clear: Without Jim McGreevey, there might not have been a Chris Christie.

"There definitely were repercussions. We certainly would not have had Jon Corzine as governor," said Monmouth University Polling Institute director Patrick Murray. "… We got Jon Corzine, rather than a second McGreevey term. And Jon Corzine gave us Chris Christie."

In terms of gay rights, the declaration may have had a marginal impact on Americans' changing attitudes. From the perspective of New Jersey policy, the impact is difficult to assess; the state had Democratic governors for the five years that following his resignation.

But politically, McGreevey's announcement and the events that precipitated it were seismic. The announcement was not simply the result of McGreevey's sexuality. The governor had put a lover on the state payroll in a position for which he was unqualified. There were other ethical and legal questions, too, about associates of the governor. And his former lover was preparing a sexual harassment suit against McGreevey.

So what were the changes? Sen. Richard Codey wouldn't have been the state's accidental governor. Without the taint on his administration, McGreevey may have won a second term. Corzine and his personal fortune may have stayed in the U.S. Senate, where he possibly would be chairing a committee now. And Christie's biggest selling point -- a corruption-busting law prosecutor -- may have been blunted.

McGreevey wouldn't discuss whether he would have sought a second term or what his resignation meant for the future of the state.

"I find very little benefit in predicting a future that wasn't to be," McGreevey said. "Acceptance, just sort of understanding and appreciating and working to sort of learn the lessons of that time and to work to make a life of service for the years before me."

McGreevey said he still believes it was necessary to step down but generally declines to revisit the issue.

"Those decisions were what they were and I let them be," he said.

Political analysts say the elections that followed may have had different participants and results, if not for McGreevey's resignation.

Not Corzine's time

McGreevey wasn't very popular as governor, with more people disapproving of his job performance than approving in Quinnipiac University polls through 2003 and part of 2004. He turned things around in the spring, then suffered a setback when corruption charges were filed against two Democratic fund-raisers. There was even speculation that then-U.S. Sen. Jon Corzine might challenge him in a primary.

But he wasn't politically toxic, and political analysts say he remained a strong candidate for re-election.

"McGreevey, I'm sure would have run for a second term," said John Weingart, associate director of the Eagleton Institute of Politics at Rutgers University. "Just as he had the experience when (then-U.S. Sen. Robert) Torricelli had challenged him years ago, I think Democrats who might have flirted with challenging him probably would have backed off."

"Had it not happened, had McGreevey gone on to run and either win a second campaign or not, politics in New Jersey would be very different. The way the Democratic Party got to be dependent on Corzine's money, that it was left sort of bankrupt in multiple sense of the word when Corzine left, would have been a different dynamic that would have played out if Corzine hadn't become governor," he said.

A different Christie

Friends and allies had encouraged Christie to run for governor in 2005 but he opted to remain U.S. attorney after President George W. Bush won re-election. He then won in 2009, taking down Corzine when the Democrat was an unpopular incumbent and the Great Recession well into its second year.

Presume McGreevey won a second term. The seat would have been an open one in 2009. If Corzine sought the office without the target his first term's record provided for Christie, that race might have ended differently.

"While Corzine's old Wall Street pedigree would have hurt him, he would have been a sitting senator for quite some time and President Obama was very popular at the time, so it could have been an entirely different outcome if that was the Corzine/Christie race," Murray said.

"Christie may have ran in '09, too, and lost to Corzine and would have been working at a consulting firm in D.C. right now," Murray said. "There's no question that Chris Christie would not be the governor he is right now or that he would even be governor if it wasn't for McGreevey's resignation."

Weingart said Corzine, who left the Senate dreading a lifetime marginalized in the minority, might have stayed in Washington given that Democrats took back control in 2006.

"Corzine would have stayed in the Senate long enough to be in the majority for a little while, until now really. So that might have changed his perspective a little bit," Weingart said.

Montclair State University political scientist Brigid Harrison said the fractures in the Democratic Party that Christie exploited to narrowly win in 2009 also wouldn't have been there.

"My assumption would be that the Democratic Party would have continued to be more united, that the North Jersey and South Jersey alliance would have stayed in order and that the party bosses wouldn't have been willing to defy whoever the next nominee would be in 2009," Harrison said.

"It probably would have made it more difficult for candidate Christie to emerge victorious in 2009," Harrison said. "Part of the reason for his success – obviously he had to deal with Corzine's money, but he was able to take advantage of the dissent within the Democratic Party and particularly the disenchantment of people like George Norcross and translate that into a victory."

Guadagno who?

This one's a certainty, for nobody would have had the job. New Jersey would not have established the office of lieutenant governor if McGreevey hadn't resigned.

McGreevey's departure meant Senate President Richard Codey also became governor. It marked the second time that had happened in less than five years, as Donald DiFrancesco also held both positions in 2001 also Gov. Christie Whitman left to run the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

In response, lawmakers proposed and voters approved a change to the constitution creating the lieutenant governor position.

"Of course, it means Kim Guadagno wouldn't have had that great platform she's had to boost her name recognition," quipped Murray, as Guadagno keeps a low profile and remains little known to around three-quarters of state voters.