Saturday, March 21, 2015

...Last Wednesday some 1,500 Lithuanians participated in a march organised by the Union of Nationalist Youth down the main avenue of Vilnius to mark Independence Day.

On Monday, approximately the same number of Latvians gathered in the centre of Riga to honour Latvian SS veterans who fought for a victory of the Third Reich in the Second World War.

The sights and sounds at each of these events were difficult to stomach, and conjured up other scenes, when the ideological forefathers of the marchers ruled the streets of these two capitals and were active participants in the annihilation of Lithuanian and Latvian Jewry.

These marches highlight the two major themes of current Baltic right-wing discontent. The first is a total lack of tolerance for the local minorities, whether it is Poles, Jews, or Russians. "Lithuania for Lithuanians" was the dominant slogan in Vilnius.

In Riga, the hostility towards Russians and Jews was explicitly expressed in signs, comments, and accusations. Two of the more unpleasant encounters I experienced at the march were with an elderly Latvian who insisted that "all Jews are murderers", and that it was Jews who were responsible for the collapse of the banks....

The second theme is related to the ongoing systematic efforts in post-Communist Eastern Europe, but especially in the Baltics, to rewrite the history of the war and the Holocaust in order to minimise or hide the crimes of local Nazi collaborators and promote the canard of equivalency between Nazi and Communist crimes.

In Riga the march seeks to portray the Latvian SS veterans as heroic freedom fighters who paved the way for current independence, a thesis with three basic flaws.

First, the Nazis had absolutely no intention of ever granting independence to any of the Baltic states, regardless of the military contribution of the locals.

So the irony is that today's independent Latvia could never have been established had the Third Reich won the war, a goal which these SS Waffen veterans sought to achieve.

The second point is that fighting for a victory of the most genocidal regime in history is hardly a criteria for the status of heroes under any circumstances.

It is important to note that although the Latvian SS Legion itself was not involved in Holocaust crimes, among these soldiers were quite a few who prior to joining the Waffen-SS had actively participated in the mass murder of Latvian Jewry and thousands of foreign Jews deported to Latvia to be murdered.

In Vilnius, that theme was reflected by a slew of Lithuanian swastikas worn by the marchers and a large, black SS flag prominently flown....

Friday, March 20, 2015

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The new
Likud-led government will be faced with a range of sharp security challenges.
It must thwart the nuclear program of Iran and prevent Tehran from gaining
dominant control of the region. Israel’s leaders must prepare the IDF for the
worst case-scenarios of the threatening strategic landscape.

A new Likud-led government will
take office in Jerusalem in the upcoming weeks. The government will have to
face many security challenges emerging from the turbulent strategic
environment.

The most important issue is Iran.
The US is racing toward an agreement that will legitimize the nuclear threshold
status of Iran Many key Mideast powers have signaled their displeasure with the
nascent accord, as well as their desire to develop uranium enrichment
capabilities on par with Iran.

The American attempt to offer a nuclear umbrella
to forestall regional nuclear proliferation – which is a strategic nightmare –
is doomed to failure. No Arab leader trusts President Obama.

...only a
military strike to destroy the Iranian capability to produce fissionable
material needed for nuclear bombs can stop nuclear proliferation in the region.

The only country with ‘enough
guts’ to do this is Israel. This decision must be taken by the next Israeli
government. The timetable for such a strike is not to be determined by
additional Iranian progress on the nuclear path, but by the perceptions of
regional leaders of Iranian ambitions and power. The expansion of Iranian
influence to Iraq and Yemen, in addition to its grip over Syria and Lebanon,
has heightened threat perceptions. American willingness to accept a greater
Iranian regional role undermines American credibility and underscores the need
for Israeli action in the near future.

An Israeli strike is needed to
prevent nuclear proliferation and to prevent imperial and Islamist Iran from
acquiring hegemony in the Middle East. History indicates that such Israeli
actions are not welcomed by American administrations, but are highly
appreciated later on. In this case, it is Israel that will have to save the
Americans from themselves.

Israel’s main challenge is to
maintain its freedom of action, while on a collision course with current
American policy. This is not an easy endeavor, but Israel has large reservoirs
of goodwill in the US which should allow Israel to act on its cardinal security
interests against the will of an unpopular American president.

Despite the fact that some of the
Arab armies that posed a threat to Israel have largely disintegrated and the
power differential between Israel and its Arab neighbors grows constantly, the
Jewish state still faces great hostility from Islamist sub-state armed groups.
Hezbollah, Hamas and Islamic Jihad cannot conquer Israel, but have acquired
impressive capabilities to cause massive damage to Israel. Large armored
formations are still needed to tackle those challenges. In addition, Israel’s
active defense missile capabilities must be augmented.

Unfortunately, the IDF is
underfunded, which has led to cuts in ground forces and in training for
the regular army and its reserves. Whoever will be the new defense minister has
the task of securing a much larger, multi-year military budget on which the IDF
can definitively plan a sustained force build-up. Israel’s strong economy can
definitely sustain larger defense layouts.

Another area that needs attention
is the navy. Over 90 percent of Israel’s exports travel via the East
Mediterranean. Moreover, this area is rich in energy resources that are vital
for Israel’s future prosperity. Yet, the East Mediterranean is increasingly
becoming an Islamic lake.

Turkey under Erdogan grows more
hostile every month.

Syria is an Iranian ally, and its civil war has brought
about the rise of Islamist militias of all kinds.

Hezbollah
occasionally perpetrates attacks against Israel and has threatened to hit
Israel’s gas rigs at sea.

Hamas, a radical Sunni terrorist group linked to
Iran, has taken over Gaza. It has launched thousands of rockets into Israel and
staged attacks on Israeli gas installations in the Mediterranean.

In Sinai, a
plethora of Islamist armed groups are challenging the sovereignty of Egypt and
even attacked targets along the Suez Canal.

Libya is no longer a real state and
the Islamist militias are fighting to carve out areas of influence.

In short,
we may soon see real piracy and terrorist attacks in the East Mediterranean.

Israel’s responses must include a
larger and stronger navy. This is an expensive project that has already
started. Hopefully, all budgetary problems will be overcome. Fortunately, some
of the vessels needed for this are procured in Germany (not the US), while
others can be built in Israel if enough money is allocated.

The strategic landscape of the
Middle East is begetting new leaders and new ruling elites. Israel’s
intelligence apparatus faces a difficult job in identifying the important
players and their modus operandi. Many of the devils Israel knew are no longer
in power. This means greater uncertainty and higher chances of surprises. Since
Israel cannot prevent all surprises (that is their nature), it must prepare for
worst-case scenarios rather than be tempted by best-case, rosy dreams.

*BESA Center Perspectives Papers are published through the generosity of the Greg Rosshandler Family.

**Efraim Inbar, a professor of
political studies at Bar-Ilan University, is director of the Begin-Sadat Center
for Strategic Studies, and a Shillman/Ginsburg fellow at the Middle East Forum.

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