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Understanding Risk

Note: This information was originally published in 2003. Risk is constantly changing. But then if risk didn’t change it wouldn’t be risk.

You have:

1 in 100 Chance of death in an Auto Accident.

1 in 300 Chance of being a victim of Murder.

1 in 800 Chance of death in an Fire.

1 in 2,500 Chance of death in an Accidental Shooting.

1 in 5,000 Chance of death by Electrocution.

1 in 10,000 Chance of dying due to an Asteroid or Comet Impact.

1 in 30,000 Chance of dying in a Jetliner Crash.

1 in 30,000 Chance of drowning in a Flood.

1 in 60,000 Chance of being killed by a Tornado.

1 in 100,000 Chance of death by Snakebite or Insect Sting.

1in 1 Million Being the victim of a Fireworks Accident.

1 in 3 Million Dying of Botulism Poisoning.

* Please note that the risk of dying in an asteroid or comet impact is high due to the high numbers of people who would be killed in a single event, from 50 to 100 million in the United States alone. Remember when the stakes are high the risk goes up. Also, children under age four have a higher chance of dying due to botulism poisoning (never give a baby honey). This means the vulnerability of stake holders must be taken in account when determining risk.

Average accidental death probabilities for U.S. residents, based upon a 1994 paper by C.R. Chapman & D. Morrison, Impacts on the Earth by asteroids & comets: assessing the hazards, Nature, 367, 33-40, and updated by Duncan Steel in his book Target Earth : the search for rogue asteroids and doomsday comets that threaten our planet, Pleasantville, N.Y. : Reader’s Digest Association, 2000.