Climate change won't reduce winter deaths

In a study that contradicts the received wisdom on health impacts of climate change, scientists say that we shouldn't expect substantial reduction in winter deaths as a result of global warming. This new research is published today (Friday 19 June) in IOP Publishing's Environmental Research Letters journal.

The research team was led by Professor Patrick Kinney of Columbia University in the USA.

Professor Kinney said "As Dr Margaret Chan told delegates at the recent World Health Assembly, we need to know the potential impacts of climate change on health so that we can plan public health interventions, accordingly.

"For years I've been hearing people say that global warming will reduce winter deaths but I wanted to check this claim out for myself."
Professor Kinney and his colleagues used statistical methods to pick apart the possible factors contributing to deaths of older people during the winter; they found that cities with warmer winters have similar amounts of winter deaths as do cities with colder winters.

"Most older people who die over the winter don't die from cold," Professor Kinney said, "they die from complications related to flu and other respiratory diseases.
"Unfortunately the holiday season probably plays a part; when older people mix with the younger generations of their families, they come into contact with all the bugs that the kids have brought home from school."

We often hear about "flu season" but it actually isn't known why flu emerges in seasonal waves. There is some evidence that dry air in winter plays a role, but having had personal experience of lung irritation resulting from a room humidifier, Professor Kinney has second thoughts about that particular solution. "Vaccination and good hygiene are probably the most affective interventions available, right now," he said.

The research doesn't say that cold can't be deadly - of course it can - but deaths due to slips and falls, heart attacks while shovelling snow, hypothermia, etc. are anomalies amongst the relatively high number of deaths from communicable diseases.

The people in the study all lived in the USA or France and the majority had access to a warm indoor environment. "Because of this" says Professor Kinney, "most people aren't directly exposed to cold air for long periods."

Of course, there are many factors that may link climate change to health and wellbeing. We see mosquito-borne diseases emerging in new territories because warmer winter temperatures enable the insects to over-winter in more northerly regions; warmer temperatures can also enable an insect-borne virus to replicate inside the insect vector to be transmitted and cause disease in a human or animal; cases of food poisoning tend to increase with warmer summer temperatures; and airborne pollution and pollen worsen as temperatures rise, causing deaths from respiratory failure.

Sadly, this research tells us that an increase in summer deaths due to climate change is unlikely to be counteracted by a reduction in winter deaths.

1. For further information, a full draft of the journal paper or contact with one of the researchers, contact IOP Senior Press Officer, Steve Pritchard: Tel: 0117 930 1032 E-mail: steve.pritchard@iop.org For more information on how to use the embargoed material above, please refer to our embargo policy.

IOP Publishing Journalist Area

2. The IOP Publishing Journalist Area gives journalists access to embargoed press releases, advanced copies of papers, supplementary images and videos. In addition to this, a weekly news digest is uploaded into the Journalist Area every Friday, highlighting a selection of newsworthy papers set to be published in the following week. Login details also give free access to IOPscience, IOP Publishing's journal platform. To apply for a free subscription to this service, please email Steve Pritchard, IOP Senior Press Officer, steve.pritchard@iop.org, with your name, organisation, address and a preferred username.

Changes in observed climate extremes in global urban areas

3. The published version of the paper 'Winter Season Mortality: Will Climate Warming Bring Benefits?' Kinney et al 2015 Environ. Res. Lett. 10 064016 doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/10/6/064016 will be freely available online from 19 June 2015. It will be available at http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/10/6/064016/article.

Environmental Research Letters

4. ERL covers all environmental science, providing a coherent and integrated approach including research articles, perspectives and reviews. The journal's coverage reflects the increasingly interdisciplinary nature of environmental science and recognizes the wide range of contributions to the development of methods, tools and evaluation strategies relevant to the field.

IOP Publishing

5. IOP Publishing provides publications through which leading-edge scientific research is distributed worldwide.
Beyond our traditional journals programme, we make high-value scientific information easily accessible through an ever-evolving portfolio of books, community websites, magazines, conference proceedings and a multitude of electronic services.

IOP Publishing is central to the Institute of Physics, a not-for-profit society. Any financial surplus earned by IOP Publishing goes to support science through the activities of the Institute.

6. Access to Research is an initiative through which the UK public can gain free, walk-in access to a wide range of academic articles and research at their local library. This article is freely available through this initiative. For more information, go to http://www.accesstoresearch.org.uk.

The Institute of Physics

7. The Institute of Physics is a leading scientific society. We are a charitable organisation with a worldwide membership of more than 50,000, working together to advance physics education, research and application.
We engage with policymakers and the general public to develop awareness and understanding of the value of physics and, through IOP Publishing, we are world leaders in professional scientific communications.
In September 2013, we launched our first fundraising campaign. Our campaign, Opportunity Physics, offers you the chance to support the work that we do.

Disclaimer: AAAS and EurekAlert! are not responsible for the accuracy of news releases posted to EurekAlert! by contributing institutions or for the use of any information through the EurekAlert system.