At midnight there were 8 spotted regions on the visible disk, 1 of which has not yet been numbered. A total of 2 C class flares
were recorded during the day.

Region 10207 decayed further and lost all trailing spots.
Region 10208 decayed quickly losing many spots and most of its penumbral area.
Region 10209 redeveloped a few trailing spots, the leading penumbra was unchanged.
Region 10212 was mostly unchanged and quiet. Flare: C1.7
at 10:46 UTC.
Region 10213 did not change much and remained quiet.
Region 10214 developed further early in the day. Some decay was observed
late in the day. Flare: C2.1
at 08:56 UTC.
Region 10215 was quiet and stable.

Spotted regions not yet numbered by SEC:
[S43] A new region emerged in the southeast quadrant on December 6. Location at midnight: S08E16.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

December 4-6: No obviously geoeffective CMEs noted.

Coronal holes

The southernmost part of an extension of the northern polar coronal hole may have been in a geoeffective position on December
4. A slowly developing trans equatorial coronal hole was in a geoeffective position on December
4.

Processed SOHO EIT 284 image at 19:06 UTC on December 6. Any black areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active on December 7-8 and quiet to unsettled on December 9-10. Long distance medium wave (AM) band propagation along
east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is fair to poor.

Coronal holes (1)

Coronal mass ejections (2)

M and X class flares (3)

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth within the
next 5 days.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next 48
hours.

Composite image based on a SOHO/MDI continuum image and overlaid by a coronal hole image. Region numbering has been included.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region Summary provided by SEC/NOAA. Comments are my own, as is the
STAR spot count (spots observed at or just prior to midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has observed no spots.

Solar region

Date numbered

SEC
spot
count

STAR
spot
count

Location at midnight

Area

Classification

Comment

10203

2002.11.26

N07W60

plage

10204

2002.11.27

N16W77

plage

10205

2002.11.27

N20W54

plage

10206

2002.11.27

S27W61

plage

10207

2002.11.27

5

1

S20W50

0140

ESO

classification was HSX
at midnight

10208

2002.11.29

8

11

N09W24

0090

DAO

beta-gamma
area was near 0050 at
midnight

10209

2002.11.30

1

4

S19W26

0090

HAX

classification was ESO
at midnight

10211

2002.12.02

S08W48

plage

10212

2002.12.02

13

19

N12E21

0170

DAO

10213

2002.12.03

4

6

N14E38

0040

CAO

area was near 0060 at
midnight

10214

2002.12.05

9

16

N12W41

0090

DAO

area was near 0140 at
midnight

10215

2002.12.05

2

2

S19E59

0080

HSX

S42

emerged on
2002.12.04

S10W08

plage

S43

emerged on
2002.12.06

4

S08E16

0020

CSO

Total spot count:

42

63

SSN:

112

143

Monthly solar cycle data

Month

Average solar
flux at Earth

International sunspot number

Smoothed sunspot number

2000.04

184.2

125.5

120.8
cycle 23 sunspot max.

2000.07

202.3

170.1

119.8

2001.11

210.6

106.5

115.5 (+1.5)

2001.12

235.1

132.2

114.6 (-0.9)

2002.01

226.6

114.1

113.5 (-1.1)

2002.02

205.0

107.4

114.7 (+1.2)

2002.03

179.5

98.4

113.4 (-1.3)

2002.04

189.8

120.7

110.5 (-2.9)

2002.05

178.4

120.8

108.8 (-1.7)

2002.06

148.7

88.3

(106.4 predicted, -2.4)

2002.07

173.5

99.9

(102.8 predicted, -3.6)

2002.08

183.6

116.4

(99.6 predicted, -3.2)

2002.09

175.8

109.3

(96.6 predicted, -3.0)

2002.10

167.0

97.5

(93.1 predicted, -3.5)

2002.11

168.7

95.0

(87.8 predicted, -5.3)

2002.12

147.9 (1)

25.7 (2)

(83.5 predicted, -4.3)

1) Running average based on the daily 20:00 UT observed solar flux value at 2800
MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (SEC/NOAA) sunspot number. The official
international sunspot number is typically 25-45% less.

This report has been prepared by Jan
Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and interpretations, and
partly on data from sources noted in solar
links. Comments and suggestions are always welcome.