Monday, October 17, 2011

Handicapping the Republican Field

I haven't looked at the horse race for a while. The odds are from Intrade.

Mitt Romney (1 to 2)
The only thing keeping Romney from having a lock on the race is the fact he is universally loathed by Republicans. Even with the race filled with buffoons and idiots Romney still can't pull above 25% of likely voters. Imagine how demoralizing it must be for Romney (assuming he is capable of feeling anything like human emotions) to realize that a majority of voters would prefer any random blue-nosed hyena to him.

Rick Perry (8 to 1)

A random blue-nosed hyena.

Perry is only polling in third place mostly because Republicans realized that calling Perry dumber than dirt was an insult to the intellect of top soil. Perry still has three advantages: 1) He's not Mitt; 2) He's got money; 3) He's Texan. The last is important because, while Southerners may agree he's dumb as a post it is at least a good old boy Southern post.

Herman Cain (11 to 1)

As CEO, Cain used the same high-tech resources to create the Godfather Pizza business plan as he did developing his tax plan.

Polling in first place but nobody, including Cain's family, thinks he has a snowballs chance in Hell. Cain himself is spending most of his time pitching a book and not campaigning. Cain has no campaign funds and being the front runner hasn't seen any inflow of cash.

Michele Bachmann (76 to 1)

No further comment.

Republicans have a history of nominating candidates they despise, Mitt will likely just be another in that long line. However, there is still time. All it takes to shoot into the lead in polls is the willingness to declare, the ability to hate unreservedly, and to appear semi-lucid for at least 30 consecutive seconds.