Australian news, and some related international items

More drought, more heat, if a large El Nino event occurs in 2019

‘Monster’ El Nino a chance later this year, pointing to extended dry times , Brisbane Times, By Peter Hannam, March 15, 2019Relief for Australia’s drought-hit regions could be a long way off, with climate influences in the Pacific and Indian oceans tilting towards drier conditions and a large El Nino event a possibility by year’s end.

Climate scientists said the conditions in the Pacific were particularly concerning given an unusual build-up of equatorial heat below the surface that could provide the fuel for a significant El Nino.

If such an event transpires, the Great Barrier Reef would face another bout of mass coral bleaching while the drought gripping southern and eastern Australia could intensify.

Agus Santoso, a senior scientist at the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, said there were two likely outcomes from the developments in the Pacific. “We could have an El Nino fully formed by the end of May and then it could dissipate,” Dr Santoso said.

“The other is that by May it’s already formed and it still keeps building up… and by the end of the year we could have a monster El Nino.”

During El Ninos, the normal easterly winds blowing along the equator slow and even reverse. Rainfall patterns tend to shift eastwards away from south-east Asia and Australia, setting up conditions favourable for below-average rainfall and bushfires………..