March 2, 2013 4:55pm ESTFebruary 28, 2013 10:54pm ESTVirginia knocks off No. 3 Duke 73-68 to solidify its place in the NCAA tournament.

Barry Reeves

Published on Feb. 28, 2013 | Updated on Mar. 2, 2013

Feb. 28, 2013

From now, until Selection Sunday, Sporting News will analyze the outcomes of key games involving bubble teams for the 2013 NCAA Tournament and look at how the results affect the team's tournament chances.

At this time of the season, every game carries a life-or-death feel for teams in the NCAA Tournament bubble conversation. They rarely are quite that important—remember, the phrase “body of work” is critical—but the tournament selection committee is watching intently.

Here’s what they saw Thursday night:

GOOD NIGHT: Virginia

Outcome: Won at home vs. No. 3 Duke, the 19th time this season that an unranked team beat a top-five team. The Cavs held Duke scoreless for the first 4:40 of the game, embarrassed used-to-be All-American candidate Mason Plumlee (abused on defense, abused on the boards, non-factor on offense) and pulled the 73-68 upset, which wasn't as close as the score would indicate, behind Joe Harris’ big night (36 points before fouling out).

Prognosis: Welcome to the NCAA Tournament, Cavs. Barring a collapse in the final week, Virginia should be in. Despite a few bad losses (Delaware, George Mason, Old Dominion), the Cavs are now 7-2 against top-100 RPI teams.

GOOD NIGHT: Temple

Outcome: Won at home vs. Detroit, in a game rescheduled from December because of weather. It wasn’t easy for the Owls. In fact, had Detroit pulled the upset it could have worked itself onto the bubble. Khalif Wyatt scored 12 of Temple’s final 14 points, including back-to-back 3s in the final 1:40, to pull out the come-from-behind win.

Prognosis: It’s looking good for the Owls (20-8). They now have three RPI top-50 wins—including over Syracuse on a neutral floor—and are 9-6 against teams from the top 100.

GOOD NIGHT: Louisiana Tech

Outcome: Won at home vs. Utah State. This game would’ve been more interesting had Preston Medlin and Kyisean Reed been healthy. As it was, 25th-ranked Louisiana Tech jumped out to a 15-2 lead and never was challenged.

Prognosis: Winners of 17 straight, this is the best Louisiana Tech team since Karl Malone ran the floor in those short-shorts. It’s still no guarantee that LaTech (25-3) would get an at-large bid should they lose some time in the WAC Tournament.

GOOD NIGHT: Middle Tennessee State

Outcome: Won at Troy. Marcos Knight led MTSU with 20 points and eight rebounds as the Blue Raiders (26-4) won their 15th straight.

Prognosis: Although the Blue Raiders certainly passes the “eye test” of what an NCAA Tournament team looks like, they better win the Sun Belt Tournament. They have an impressive RPI ranking of 23 but are only 1-3 against top-100 teams.

GOOD NIGHT: Cal

Outcome: Won at home vs. Utah. Cal was down eight with 5 ½ minutes to go in the first half, but then went on a 20-2 run behind Allen Crabbe’s double-double (15 points, 11 rebounds) and never looked back.

Prognosis: The Golden Bears have won six consecutive games and are in, as of now. Cal lost at Colorado and Stanford earlier in the year but can get revenge against both over next week at home and solidify their NCAA spot.

Bubble teams in action Friday ...

Harvard—at Princeton, 7 p.m. (ESPNU). OK, so this isn’t technically a bubble game. The Ivy League doesn’t have a tournament, so the regular-season champ will get the NCAA bid. Harvard has a 1 1/2-game lead (one game in the loss column) on Princeton with four games remaining. So this could well be a play-in game, like those in Dayton in a couple weeks.