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The latest estimates of telephone coverage by the National Center for Health Statistics found that a quarter of U.S. households have only a cell phone and cannot be reached by a landline telephone. Cell-only adults are demographically and politically different from those who live in landline households; as a result, election polls that rely only on landline samples may be biased.

"fundamentals"--factors such as the state of the economy, the role of foreign wars and whether the incumbent president is running. At best, polls represent a snapshot of the electorate on a given day, rather than a forecast of the eventual outcome.

Yet even this modest view has its problems. A snapshot may be seen as worthless if it is clear that the picture must eventually change. In four of the last five presidential elections, the eventual popular vote winner has trailed in the polls at some point, often by a substantial margin. Moreover, these changes are often predictable, as shifts usually move in the direction suggested by forecasts based on readings of "bread and peace": the state of the economy and U.S. standing abroad.

"Likely voters." Pollsters attempt to survey the subset of the population that will vote on election day, rather than the entire adult population. (This makes sense, given that these polls are geared toward an election and not an abstract representation of the public's preference, such as presidential job approval ratings.) Some polls survey only registered voters, while others will ask a series of questions designed to screen out those who are not deemed 'likely voters':

--Misapplied technique? These screening techniques help give a more accurate picture of the electorate in polls conducted shortly before election day. However, polls with "likely voter screens" portray a very volatile electorate, with levels of fluctuation that appear unrealistic. Crucially, it is more difficult to predict likely voters. There is some evidence to suggest that likely-voter screens, in particular, may actually make early polls less accurate.

--Turnout guesswork. Turnout is not easy to predict, even in principle. For example, anecdotal reports suggest that Barack Obama's campaign has a large advantage in the 'ground game' of door-to-door canvassing (in terms of measurable campaign activity such as money invested, volunteers enlisted, and field offices opened). This could conceivably translate into a higher Democratic turnout than models based on past elections predict.

Undecided voters. In an apparent paradox, polls move a great deal over the course of the campaign but usually claim that only a small segment of the population is "undecided." Yet if 85% to 95% of the electorate has already "decided," then early polls should track the November results closely--and they do not. If pollsters' estimates of undecided voters early in the election campaign were meaningful, then the race would essentially be over when one candidate's lead exceeds the remaining number of undecided voters. This paradox has two main causes:

-Pollsters' questions. Aiming for a momentary snapshot, pollsters almost always ask respondents whom they would vote for "if the election were held today." Many also use a follow-up probe to see if those who say they are unsure "lean" in a particular direction.

No one posting here has experienced a difference in their lives as a result of Bush leaving office and Obama taking it. No one is going to experience a difference in 2013, regardless of who wins...

What?

Tell that to the millions of people who kept their jobs from the Auto Bail out that.
The millions of people who got to keep their houses under the housing plan.
Or the millions of teachers, firefighters, police officers that kept their job because of the stimulus plan.
The millions of families that were able to feed their kids because of the unemployment benefit extensions.
The millions of small business that got tax breaks to provide health insurance to their employees.

I can list hundreds of reasons why things have changed under Obama, but why bother, you have access to the internet just like I do, it's so simple to keep yourself inform, but WTF ever. Nevermind.. I wonder what kind of ****ing bubble you people live IN. 2011 congress was the most active congress in the history of this country under democrat control. Question how many members are in the House ? Do you even know that ? How about the Senate? Do you know that? What is reconciliation ? What is a filibuster? Without during a Google search do you know any of these answers? I bet you don't!

2011 Congress Under Democrat Control The most active congress in the history of this country.

Since the republicans took over the house PLEASE TELL ME ONE LEGISLATION THEY HAVE PASSED TO MATCH ANYONE OF THOSE I LISTED TO HELP THE NORMAL AMERICAN. NAME ME JUST ONE. JUST ****ING ONE. ALL THEY HAVE DONE IS ABORTION AND VOTER SUPPRESSION THAT'S IT.

Tell that to the millions of people who kept their jobs from the Auto Bail out that.
The millions of people who got to keep their houses under the housing plan.
Or the millions of teachers, firefighters, police officers that kept their job because of the stimulus plan.
The millions of families that were able to feed their kids because of the unemployment benefit extensions.
The millions of small business that got tax breaks to provide health insurance to their employees.

I can list hundreds of reasons why things have changed under Obama, but why bother, you have access to the internet just like I do, it's so simple to keep yourself inform, but WTF ever. Nevermind.. I wonder what kind of ****ing bubble you people live. 2011 congress was the most active congress in the history of this country under democrat control. Question how many members are in the House ? Do you even know that ? How about the Senate? Do you know that? What is reconciliation ? What is a filibuster? Without during a Google search do you know any of these answers? I bet you don't!

2011 Congress Under Democrat Control The most active congress in the history of this country.

Since the republicans took over the house PLEASE TELL ME ONE LEGISLATION THEY HAVE PASSED TO MATCH ANYONE OF THOSE I LISTED TO HELP THE NORMAL AMERICAN. NAME ME JUST ONE. JUST ****ING ONE. ALL THEY HAVE DONE IS ABORTION AND VOTER SUPPRESSION THAT'S IT.

Tell that to the millions of people who kept their jobs from the Auto Bail out that.
The millions of people who got to keep their houses under the housing plan.
Or the millions of teachers, firefighters, police officers that kept their job because of the stimulus plan.
The millions of families that were able to feed their kids because of the unemployment benefit extensions.
The millions of small business that got tax breaks to provide health insurance to their employees.

I can list hundreds of reasons why things have changed under Obama, but why bother, you have access to the internet just like I do, it's so simple to keep yourself inform, but WTF ever. Nevermind.. I wonder what kind of ****ing bubble you people live IN. 2011 congress was the most active congress in the history of this country under democrat control. Question how many members are in the House ? Do you even know that ? How about the Senate? Do you know that? What is reconciliation ? What is a filibuster? Without during a Google search do you know any of these answers? I bet you don't!

2011 Congress Under Democrat Control The most active congress in the history of this country.

Since the republicans took over the house PLEASE TELL ME ONE LEGISLATION THEY HAVE PASSED TO MATCH ANYONE OF THOSE I LISTED TO HELP THE NORMAL AMERICAN. NAME ME JUST ONE. JUST ****ING ONE. ALL THEY HAVE DONE IS ABORTION AND VOTER SUPPRESSION THAT'S IT.

Rich people benefit more when Republicans control more of the gov't, poor people benefit more when Democrats control more of the gov't, and the middle class gets ****ed either way. That's been the story for quite some time, and I don't see it changing anytime soon.