Friday, February 02, 2007

Super Bowl XLI: Your Picks, My Picks

Here we go: Your chance to go on the record with your Super Bowl picks. Meanwhile, my challenge to you: Attempt to untangle the complex "Quickie jinx" implications of the following:

First, I am rooting for the Bears. Part of this is because I really like Rex Grossman. Part of this is because I really don't like Peyton Manning. Part of this is because -- widely unknown Shanoff history alert -- I used to be a HUGE Bears fan and I can't imagine NOT rooting for them. Check out this post, under "(C)," on the not-talking-about-it-yet-but-you-get-a-sneak-peek new blog.

Second, despite the point above, I cannot miss the opportunity to see the fulfillment of the greatest sports prediction of my life: That the Colts would beat the Bears in Super Bowl XLI... predicted back in August. At the time, my specific thinking was this: Peyton Manning is going to chokingly shit the bed, but he will be bailed out by a game-winning field goal by Adam Vinatieri -- only the most clutch player in NFL history... and the reason the Colts paid so much to sign him. Therefore: I am picking the Colts to win on an Adam V. field goal. (Peyton will stink.)

Therefore, given the current Super Bowl point-spread that has the Colts a 7-point favorite over the Bears and given the scenario I laid out in the above paragraph, I pick the Bears to cover.

To summarize:

(1) Picking the Colts to win.(2) Picking the Bears to cover.(3) Rooting for the Bears to win.*

* - Even though the Bears winning would ruin No. 1... but I figure that 2-of-3 ain't bad, even if (1) is the most important for the purposes of the greatest "I called it" of my life. Screw it: "I called it" is the lamest boast in the world anyway -- totally worthless.

The upshot: I get the joy, as a fan, of betting on the Bears (not that I bet) yet enjoying the benefit, as an analyst, of knowing that even if the Bears lose, I can win my bet (not that I bet) if/when they cover. But let me be clear: I want the Bears to win. I think the Colts will win, but by less than 7. You can argue that's a lame-ass hedge (I disagree), but that's where I'm standing.

All that said, I am mostly interested to get YOUR picks. Feel free to answer the question on any/all of these levels: (1) Who are you picking to win the game? (2) Will the winner cover the spread? (Obviously, this only matters if you're picking the Colts.) (3) Who are you ROOTING for? (Which, as I've said, doesn't have to be the same as who you think will win.)

Have at it!

-- D.S.

UPDATE: Now THIS is a very cool idea. Don't have the money to run a Super Bowl ad on CBS? Do it for a fraction of the cost and have it simply run on YouTube. (Thanks to PaidContent.org -- one of my favorite, most must-read sites -- for the tip-off.)

I dont like the whole "best QB never to win a super bowl" argument we here now and will continue to hear if Peyton loses. I hate that sports topic so much. How much. I am a Patriots fan. Give Peyton 1. Then it'll be brady 3, Peyton 1. And the rilvary will be bigger, making betting lead up to games and better games.

I'm picking the bears to win, so bears obviously cover, and I'll be rooting for the bears. If for no reason other then I don't want Dan's kid to grow up in a world where Peyton Manning is a superbowl winner.

Bears will win and therefore cover. I know peyton cannot win the big game and therefore he will crap the bed. As much as I like dungy for being a class act and his years resurrecting the tampa franchise I would rather eat a shit sandwich than root for peyton. I figure the sex cannon is due for a good game and that combined with a healthy dose of benson and jones should keep the colts offense on the sideline. I think the bears win by four and they secure the win on a peyton int as time runs out. I just hope they bears have more than three points on them on that final drive or all bets are off with vinatieri kicking.

The Bears will get a touchdown form Jones, Grossman to Berrian and Hester on a kickoff. A FG late will tie the game. Manning will march down to the 20 and AV will cement his place in the HOF. Manning will throw 3 TDs (Harrison, Clark and Utecht) and rid himslef of the Marino comparisons, leaving Dan in company by himslef.

I am rooting for Tony Dungy more than anything in this game. I think he is a great coach and an even better person.

I'm hoping the weather is crappy and the field turns into a mud pit. If that happens then the Bears have the clear advantage with their run game. That and I can't root for the team that beat mine in the AFC championship.

I just hope it doesn't come down to a field goal for Indy with a chance to win. I won't be able to watch Adam V kick another game winner, this time for Indy. And I don't want him to miss because he won 2 SBs in the last minute for NE so I don't want anything to tarnish that.

Unfortunately, I had a vivid dream last night wherein, with the game tied, Rex had a pass batted into the air and intercepted by a lineman, returned to the 1 yard line and then Vinatieri ignores my Reggie Miller choke gesture and calmly boots the game winner. I hope I'm wrong.

I want the Colts to win (because of Peyton) but given that defense wins Superbowls, I think the Bears will get the W.

Someone would have to show me the O and D rankings but my guess is that the Colts D is good against the pass and bad against the run - that is, its designed to hold a blowout lead but not designed to win the game in the event Peyton isn't on.

I don't think Peyton "chokes" but the Bears defense will have more and bigger plays than the Colts O.

And for the Peyton-haters... how many athletes do you watch these days that reached stardom by mastering strategy of the game? - a byproduct of effort rather than God-given ability. Plus, there's that laser arm...

My pick is for the Colts to win the Game but not cover the spread. And I will be rooting for the Bears to win since there is no chance I could root for a team that is one of the main rivals of the teams I root for. And for consitenancy with My blog I pick Dallas Clark for the MVP even though it is preordained that if the Colts win Manning will be the MVP.

As for what I think a classic ending would be, Manning driving the Colts down the field for the winning score in a tie game only the throw and INT that is returned for a TD and a BEars win.

The Bears win the game as a contest when Manning gets picked off resulting in a TD the other way in the last minute of a tie game. However, in celebration, Tank Johnson cracks out an oozie and starts firing hitting (non-fatally of course!) the referee and a couple of other officials. The NFL then forces the Bears to forfeit, but when conducting a random drug test on Manning they find out that he is, in fact, a robot and therefore force the Colts to forfeit. Crack reporting from Peter King revealed that Payton Manning was a creation from a collaboration including Dan Fouts, Dan Marino, Fran Tarkinton and Jim Kelly that they called Chokebot 4000. It turns out that they were so pleased with their efforts that they devised a second one...but with a limited budget they could only come up with a less talented version of "Payton", thus giving us Chokebot 2000 (Eli). They felt bad that the Saints were so bad for so long that they decided to give their creations to their star QB (Archie).

MIAMI -- San Diego Chargers running back LaDainian Tomlinson said he's looking forward to being coached by Bill Belichick in the Pro Bowl.

Tomlinson added that he spoke in the heat of the moment when he suggested the Patriots' post-game celebration after their playoff win over the Chargers -- which he felt was classless -- was a reflection on Belichick.

"Obviously, the head coach is the leader of the team, but he can't control what his players do," Tomlinson said this morning after accepting the Walter Payton NFL Man of the Year award along with Drew Brees. "A lot of times, in the heat of the battle or right after the game, you kind of say things sometimes that you want to take back.

"For me to say they probably get it from their head coach, that may not be true. I don't know that for sure. I think more times that players react in ways that may be classless, it has nothing to do with the coach.

"So I'm looking forward to seeing Bill and having him coach the game. I think we'll have a good time."

Tomlinson also said his remarks about not wanting to say two words to Belichick might have been misinterpreted. He said he didn't plan to say two words about the post-game incident.

"I think they know it was wrong, but at the same time, Bill has no control over that. It's not a fact that I won't talk to him," Tomlinson said.

And nobody has any idea, really. No one knows if the Colts have a run defense or not (have the playoffs been an anomaly or a trend?). No one knows if the Bears have a quarterback or not(good Rex or bad?). No one knows why the Bears' defense has been looking softer and the Colts' O shakier over the last few weeks. No one has the slightest idea about any of this. So if you know what's good for you, your money is staying far, far away from this one.

I'm picking the Bears, 27-23, if for no other reason than the "experts" don't think they have a chance.

I haven't decided who I'm rooting for, and here's why:

I'd like to see the Bears win because of the underdog factor, because they're the NFC team (I almost always root for the NFC team, unless it's Dallas or Philly), because they're my pick to win, and because I think Peyton's continued torture would be funny.

However, I'd like to see the Colts win because I like Peyton, because Peyton winning one means Eli is able to win one (using some sort of funky transitive property that I haven't quite convinced myself of yet), because it'd be funny to find out Adam V. - and not Billy B. or Tommy B. - was the X-factor for the Pats in the postseason, and because before the Colts-Ravens game I said if the Colts found a way to win that game, they'd end up winning the Super Bowl (nice to see I've completely contradicted my prediction with my pick).

Gotta go with the Bears over the Colts by 10. I feel pretty good with this, condsidering on the World Wide Leader's website, the "celebs" who are choosing the Colts are Vanilla Ice, Phyllis Diller, and Dionne Warwick. Whereas the Bears have Paul Newman, "Dog" Chapman, and Wayne Newton on their side. Bear down, Chicago Bears!

Colts in everything. Tony Dungy is a master tactician and will have a perfect game plan. Peyton will not have a great game but will certainly have a decent game. Rhodes and Addai combine for over 100 yards rushing and a TD. Adam V. will kick 3 field goals.

Chicago does nothing offensively. Grossman can say all he wants about not listening to the critics but he's essentially a rookie QB and we all know how that works out. The running game won't do anything. Everyone seems to forget how good Indy's defense has been playing lately. Bob Sanders is the best run stopping safety in the league and he isn't going to let Jones or Benson go anywhere. The long bombs that Grossman is pretty good at never work because he goes into one of his cold spells again.

As far as covering the spread goes, there are so many different variables - I think the first quarter will be very important. If the Bears can keep it close or even get out to an early lead, then they will have a great shot at covering because they'll be able to focus more on their running game and shorten the game. But, if the Colts get the ball first and score right away, then the Bears might be in for an uphill climb.

Since Vegas doesn't let you make bets like "The Bears will cover unless the Colts score 10 points in the first quarter", I'll have to take some sort of a stand.

Colts win by two touchdowns, but the game will be closer than the score indicates.

Bears WinRooting for Colts, but am happy with the match up either way.

Don't know how all the Peyton hatin' came about, other than that he has sucked it up in the playoffs and is over-marketing himself - but I'd like to seem him win by performing at his best, which we've all seen him at - and that's pretty impressive. You want to see top players playing at the top of their game, in the biggest game (think Jordan, Woods, Magic/Bird) - you want to say that YOU SAW IT...

If he does suck it up, though, then I'm more than happy seeing the Bears win.

I smell this as a year for a blowout. And this game has a sense of Tampa Bay and Oakland from 2002. I am going with Chicago 37-18.

However, I will be rooting for the Colts. I like Manning, him and that offense are fun to watch when they are clicking. He won me over with that Xbox Live commercial from years ago when he was talking trash online in a monotone dull voice. Hysterical. "Your offense, is offensive"

Dan - do you know how badly I want to vomit over hearing "Adam V is most clutch player ever"? I couldn't even read it, it's embarrassing. Yes, he did what no kicker has ever done, but guess what? No kicker has ever had the chances he has had. He deserves credit for the kicks in the snow against Oakland, but those 2 game winning SB field goals? Mid 40 range in perfect conditions? PLEASE. I guarantee at least 12 kickers currently in the league could have hit those. Quit being like Bill Simmons and sucking Adam's cock.

Simply put, there is no team that offers a more favorable matchup for the Bears than the Colts:

1) Weak run defense. Sure, it's been better in the playoffs, but other than NE, none of the teams the Colts beat had 2 RBs that could offer the change of pace that TJ and Cedric the Benson offer. Plus:

2) Susceptibility of the Colts secondary to play action deep balls. No other team the Colts faced in the playoffs had a home run threat like Berrian. And say what you will about Rex, but his BEST throw is the deep ball. He'll have his chance off play action deep, and hit it once or twice. That'll be enough to soften up the run defense and give the Bears RB room to run.

3) Desmond Clark. He'll have a huge game - the Colts have no one to cover him. Expect him up the middle and the seam a couple times, at least.

4) Bears fast D. This is the fastest D the Colts have faced. All the Bears LB can cover Dallas Clark, meaning they won't need to be in nickel too much (they will, though, use Ricky Manning to offer Hillenmeyer a break occasionally). The Bears force turnovers, too, and will rip the ball out of the Colts' hands (expect more fumbles than interceptions).

5) Special teams. Bears will win the field position battle all game, thanks to Maynard and Hester.

The game comes down to the Bears bending but not breaking (giving up FGs but not TDs), Bears D getting turnovers, special teams giving the Bears offense good field position, and Rex showing off the deep ball to Berrian enough during the game to free up the running game.

Here's something nobody has mentioned yet: it's Peyton Manning's first Super Bowl, and the coin toss will be done by...Dan Marino. No, I'm not making this up. Don't you have to pick the Bears based on that alone?

All of these guys came from rev. smokin steve's blog. They wanted to launch an assault on deadspin, like deadspin did on ESPN yesterday, but they knew that Deadspin was too big...plus you can't get comments on there. So they picked Shanoff, because....?????? well because they're idiots with nothing better to do.

But more importantly, I'm pulling for Peyton, because I'm sick of lame-ass Tennesee fans trashing him after he couldn't deliver in college. But they pulled for him while he gave them 4 years of winning seasons. Then they praise him by sporting his number when he visits the Titans. Christ, just decide all ready!

If you remember who led Tennessee to their National Championship in '98, I'd like to point out he hasn't done shit in any worthy professional league.

Yesterday, I actually got a phone call from where I used to work wanting my opinion about the game. I've got the same feeling now that I did when the Championship games were over- Bears are going to win outright. I don't think it'll be a blowout. I know Dan just asked for picks here, but here are my reasons why-

1. Colts had their SB when they beat NE.

2. Bears defense (and team) is getting no respect. I think they come out with a similar performance to the Pats team that beat the Rams. They are gonna play up on the line and beat the hell out of the Colts smallish WR's.

3. As a longtime UT (well, started when Peyton was there) fan, I don't trust Peyton in big games. He's gonna choke.

4. Bears will get one non-offensive td, whether it be an INT return, punt return, etc.

Even though I think the Bears will win, I'll be cheering for the Colts.

Top X Predictions for Super Bowl XLI:I. Bears +7.5II. Bears in the rain, Colts in the sunIII. Neither Rhodes nor Addai will have 75 yards rushingIV. At least 1 appearence of the Manning FaceV. Rexcrement will throw at least 1 INTVI. Sexy Rexy will throw at least 2 TDsVII. The Colts will make 3 FGsIX. Marvin Harrison will drop at least 2 passesX. Urlacher will jump on top of at least five tackles where the runner has been down for a while

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DanShanoff.com is a sports-blog spin-off of my long-time ESPN.com column, "The Daily Quickie." Anchored by an early-morning post of must-know topics, the blog is updated frequently throughout the day with new posts and user comments.