A peek at the Thunder’s (likely) lottery pick

With the Toronto Raptors officially being eliminated from the playoffs last night and them tied for having the seventh worst record in the league, the Thunder are closer to being assured of their lottery pick, acquired in the James Harden trade.

But it’s no guarantee.

The pick is top three protected, as well as 15-30 protected. Since the Raptors are out of the playoffs, you can forget the 15-30 part. And with the Raptors currently being tied for seventh worst (with the Kings), it means they have a 4.3 percent chance of landing the top pick. If they drop to eighth worst, then it’s just a 2.8 percent chance and ninth worst is 1.7 percent.

For reference, let’s say the Raptors finish with the seventh worst record. Here’s where the ping-pong balls are likely to fall for them:

1: 4.3 percent

2: 4.9 percent

3: 5.8 percent

4: Can’t get it

5: Can’t get it

6: Can’t get it

7: 59.9 percent

8: 23.3 percent

9: 1.8 percent

And then 10, 11, 12, 13 and 14 would be zero percent. The seventh worst record has won the lottery twice, the eighth and ninth worst have each won it once. So it’s still actually no certainty the Thunder will be getting to use that pick this season. We won’t really know until the ping-pong balls are settled.

(For reference: If the pick falls in the top three, it then rolls over to next season where it would then be top two protected for 2014 and 2015. It’s then only protected for No. 1 overall in 2016 and 2017, then is unprotected in 2018.)

But the most likely position, based on today, would be picking No. 7 or No. 8. And here are who the big boards and mocks would have available between the seven and 12 spots:

Obviously, any talk about a pick comes with the disclaimer: Don’t get too excited about this because knowing what we know, this player might be spending most of next season in Tulsa anyway. As one person wisely cracked to me on Twitter, David Stern should probably hand whoever OKC picks a 66ers jersey.

But for the Thunder, a team that is pretty much fully stocked already, who they go with is probably going to be a question of need. There’s a feeling OKC will go big with the pick because of the future with Kendrick Perkins (deal expires in 2015, could be amnestied) and Nick Collison (32 years old, deal expires in 2015). And in this new collective bargaining agreement world, there’s nothing more valuable than a quality contributor on a rookie scale deal. Which in the Thunder’s case, there may be a hole to be filled inside soon and if they could land a big man to do it and have the bonus of them being on a rookie deal, that would be a home run.

But, the Thunder don’t have a great history with drafting bigs (hello, Cole Aldrich) and there’s always the unknown of Tibor Pleiss who is performing well in Spain currently. Or there’s the fact the league is moving a bit more towards smallball and speed, so Serge Ibaka may end up being OKC’s starting center of the future.

There’s Alex Len, a physically imposing seven-footer that had a frustratingly inconsistent season at Maryland. There’s Rudy Gobert, a seven-foot French center, and a player Sam Presti has scouted in person. There’s Kelly Olynyk, a high energy seven-footer (reminds me a touch of Joakim Noah, honestly). Or there’s Cody Zeller, a fairly polarizing seven-footer who has No. 1 overall pick buzz, but still doesn’t seem to be even close to a sure thing.

So, outside of a big, what else could the Thunder need? Thabo Sefolosha’s deal will expire after the 2014 season, meaning OKC might just have one more year with him. There’s a chance he’ll be re-signed, but with Kevin Martin potentially walking in the offseason, shooting guard could become a big hole for OKC. There’s Jeremy Lamb, who still seems to fit into the puzzle, but depth could be an issue.

Would OKC go with Shabazz Muhammad, a Harden lookalike, except for the way he actually plays? Muhammad has the look of a potentially gifted scorer, but he doesn’t pass and strikes me as the kind of player that wants to be what Harden is now, not what he was when playing with the Thunder.

What about Oladipo, a 6-5 defensive stud that plays with smarts, athleticism and energy? He’s not quite as long as Thabo, but he has the look of a potential elite NBA wing defender.

There’s Marcus Smart, a gifted combo guard that can handle, create and score. There’s Michael Carter-Williams, who has played point guard this season, but has the makings of a smooth NBA combo player.

So, there are a lot of directions to go, a lot of options. This draft seems to have most feeling a bit lukewarm with the talent, but there are always gems littered throughout, and it’s more often about how the player develops with his team than the actual existing talent of the player anyway.

But first thing’s first for the Thunder: They actually have to get that pick. We’ll know for sure when the ping-pong balls get drawn May 21.

I think Otto Porter would be able to be a great sixth man for the Thunder. He kind of played the same role as Harden did at ASU (from the games i watched). He sees the floor well and can shoot. I think he would be a good fit

I love CJ McCollum. Not many have heard of him, but that dude can flat out score. He would be great off the bench for us. I also really like Kelly Olynik. He's the kind of wild man, high energy guy that fans love. Throw in add the fact that he's a good scorer (18 points on 63% shooting this year) and a true 7-footer and he'd be another nice piece off the bench for us.

Would luv to see the Thunder find a way to pick up Marcus Smart.. he is an outstanding defender (leading the Big12 in steals, averaging almost 3 a game) as well as a phenomenal passer and consistent shooting threat with a much n
eeded post game, not to mention a larger build that could allow him to play the 2 as well as the point.. he would bring a ton of energy and a great following with the Cowboy fan base.. I just think he offers everything we need out of a solid bench threat

I'm not normally a big European pick guy, but a 6' 7" pure point guard with a dead eye shot, even with his athletic and defensive deficiencies, would sure provide for some very very interesting lineup options. And you can bet he'll be available late. Watch, if we don't get him, I bet the Spurs scoop him up and give people hell with him for years to come:

Another thought to counter my post would be to go with the best available center early, and fill a need later in the draft. Despite the lack of star talent, there's going to be some very solid guys available in the 20's.

On the point of Thabo's possible departure at some point, a guy like Micahel Snaer comes to mind for me. Athletic defender who can shoot the 3 ball. I know we have Liggins for energy and defense already bouncing between Tulsa, but 3 and D is a lot more valuable to the team than just perimeter D imo.

Then there's also Allen Crabbe, Caldwell-Pope, BJ Young, Gary Harris, and the list goes on of other SG prospects with upside that could be developed in Tulsa.

I feel like this is gonna end up being another one of those "dangit, Presti got me again" drafts

Any thoughts on Mike Muscala? It's always tough to judge mid-major kids, especially big men, but that could play in our favor as far as having him available later in the 1st. I'm not gonna lie, the more I look around, the more I feel like if Noel isn't there at our pick, the answer is to go best talent available regardless of position with that pick and grab a center later in the draft. There seems not to be a ton of top tier quality at that position, and all of them are their own type of project, but there seems to be a good bit of depth there. I think we should use that to our advantage instead of just tossing our lotto pick at a big.

@JimboSlice Leo's lack of athleticism is a non-starter for me. If you can't create space or guard in the league it should be a pass. There have been 6'-7" point guards out of Europe before in Marko Jaric and Jiri Welsch and they both had more athleticism than Westermann.

@rednuht@JimboSlice only a 6'4 wingpsan, below 40% shooting, and about 4 rebounds per 40 pace adjusted... he is 21 years old this year, I don't care if Presti wants to buy a pick to get him, but he's not worth any of our current picks that's for sure

@areayewhy@Lost Ones there could be many other contributing factors to that as well though. Hard to attribute that only to minutes played when there could be other issues with strength and conditioning or athletic training staff as well.