Friday, July 31, 2015

With 41.680 plug-ins sold in June, the global market for electric cars almost broke the 42.720 units sold last March, but even so, it is a 37% increase over the same month, which is nothing to be ashamed of, and with 204.256 units sold this year, the 400k sales by the end of the year looks like a given.

An important event this month was the first Monthly Best Seller Title for the Tesla Model S, after two months menacing the Nissan Leaf lead, it has finally achieved the top spot, ending a 18 month streak of consecutive #1's from the Nissan Leaf and marking the first #1 for a Tesla model in six(!) years. There were memorable sales from several models, like the Renault Zoe (2.498 units, year best), BAIC E-Series EV (1.506, year best), VW Golf GTE (1.705, new personal best), Zotye Cloud EV (1.214, new pb) or the BYD Qin, that with 4.015 units sold, not only secured another consecutive sales record (The 18th), but also managed to climb to #3 in June's monthly ranking AND is now menacingly close to the current bronze medalist Mitsu Outlander PHEV. Another impressive stat from the BYD plug-in, twelve months ago the Qin was selling 1.055 units, now it is over 4.000...« Besides the mentioned Third spot race, there were other points of interest, the R240 fueled Renault Zoe got to climb one position to #6, changing positions with the VW e-Golf, while VW's PHEV had the opposite performance, climbing one position to #8. A curious fact, if we count the two Golf's together, VW's compact becomes the best selling european plug-in, not bad considering they only landed last year...

Comparing this enlarged Top 20 from the first half of this year, with the situations a year ago, we can envision several changes:- The Nissan Leaf is still Number One, but lost 8% Share (20% then vs 12% now), and has its position now in danger;- The Model S sales are up 7k, making it a credible contender to the Best Selling EV title;- Chinese cars continue to evolve, not only the Qin is up several positions, but right now their lineup in the Top 20 has increased from 5 to 7;- The german models have also increased their presence, if twelve months ago there were two (BMW i3 and VW e-Up!) representatives, the number has now doubled to four (BMW i3, VW e-Golf and Golf GTE, Audi A3 e-Tron;- The Renault Zoe is experiencing a second coming this year, with sales up 143%, the same can be said about the veteran BYD e6, which has seen its sales double regarding last year.

- On the other hand, the two laggards here are two veterans, the Chevy Volt sales are down 33% and the Prius Plug-In does even worse, down 62% and losing 11(!) positions in the ranking.Because this is a half year edition, the ranking includes cars from #11 to #20, where we can see some interesting facts, like the Audi A3 e-Tron already showing up in #12 (Will we see it in the Top 10 soon?), #14 Ford Fusion Energi far away from last year performances (It ended in #8 last year), with two newcomers at the bottom in #17 we have the Fiat 500e and in #18 the Roewe 550 PHEV, both models have had a welcoming reception from consumers, let's see if their parent companies really get behind them and make them the sales hits they deserve to be.

Finally, a mention to segments not represented in the Top 20, the small Mitsu Minicab Miev Pick-Up continues to be the sole model in the Pick-up truck segment, with symbolic sales (105 units this year), in the Full-size Luxury (F-Segment), the Porsche Panamera (645 units) is still beating the Merc S-Class by a portion of 2 to 1 units, the BMW i8 (2.209 units) continues to put to shame the Cadillac ELR (614) in the Sports Car class and finally, the LCV's have an interesting race between the Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia twins and the Renault Kangoo ZE, if the french vehicle never had real competition until last year, Nissan's van changed all that, the japanese is now ahead by 397 units (2.016 vs 1.619), but the french is on the rebound and in June alone it has shortened the distance by 175 units, so this particular race still has a lot to run until the end of the year.

Manufacturers - BYD on FireIn the Manufacturers ranking, unsurprisingly, BYD is going from strength to strength, selling 5.037 units, beating again Nissan in June and surpassing Mitsubishi in the YTD ranking, ending the month in #3.Nissan continues in #1, but the competition is far closer than in June '14, the japanese carmaker lost 7% share since then and is now being closely followed by Tesla (Up one position to #2) and BYD. Mitsubishi, on the other hand, dropped two positions to #4 in just one month and it's better that the restyled Outlander PHEV rebounds their sales soon, or else the #5 Volkswagen could start to have them in its sight.#7 Renault had a great performance last month, now being less than 1.000 units behind the #6 BMW, if the french manufacturer continues to push on sales, it might give BMW some headaches in the future.Looking below the usual Top 10, we see some newcomers in the ranking: Audi in #12, Roewe in #15 and especially Mercedes in #17 appear in the Top 20 and promise to rise even further in the ranking, while others became notable absenses, like Volvo (#21) or Smart (#22). Kia is #23, but it has already sold more units in these six months than in the whole of 2014, so expect it to rise to a Top 20 position until year end.

Thursday, July 30, 2015

Waiting for Better DaysAnother negative month (The third in a row), with sales in June down 49% YoY, and only 11k sales YTD, you have to go back three years to see such low numbers in this market.Looking at the YTD models ranking, the positions are stable, with the Leaf once more in #1, with sales down just 34% regarding March '14, while the #2 Outlander PHEV in Japan was down 87%(!), to just 221 units. Mitsu is hoping the restyled plug-in SUV can rebound sales and end a 16 month leadership of the Nissan Leaf. Hopefully the new Outlander can sign the beggining of a recovery soon... Looking at the brands ranking, Nissan (50% Share) has a large advantage over Mitsubishi (32%), and is most certain to win the manufacturers title for the fourth time, the third in a row (Nissan won in 2011, 2013 and 2014).

Tuesday, July 28, 2015

Many people have asked for a breakdown between plug-in hybrid and pure electric sales, here it is a small report regarding the most representative markets and their evolution since 2012.

2015

2014

2013

2012

Market

BEV %

PHEV %

BEV %

PHEV %

BEV %

PHEV %

BEV %

PHEV %

World

62

38

62

38

57

43

50

50

USA

63

37

55

45

49

51

27

73

Japan

63

37

53

47

55

45

53

47

France

84

16

94

6

95

5

94

6

Norway

79

21

90

10

94

6

93

7

Germany

55

45

75

25

85

15

86

14

Netherlands

17

83

23

77

15

85

22

78

China

61

39

72

28

90

10

89

11

UK

36

64

54

46

78

22

67

33

Italy

82

18

91

9

89

11

97

3

Canada

73

27

58

42

51

49

30

70

Switzerland

75

25

71

29

88

12

71

29

Sweden

53

47

35

65

48

52

45

55

Belgium

47

53

69

31

75

25

79

21

Denmark

97

3

99

1

99

1

97

3

It is easy to see that for the moment pure electric are resisting quite well to the announced take over from plug-in hybrids, in fact, the rise of Tesla has been a boon for BEV's, just compare the 2012 global numbers with the current ones.

Looking closer to some markets, it is curious to see that the US market and Canada went from Volt PHEV predominant to (Tesla) BEV prevalent.

The other way around ocurred in the UK and Belgium, in 2013 three out of four plug-ins were pure electrics, now PHEV's are the best sellers in these markets.

The PHEV champion continues to be the Netherlands, with plug-in hybrids steady between 75-85% Share, while Denmark is all for pure electrics, with PHEV's only able to grasp 1 to 3% share.

Trends in the G8

China is continuing to score record performances (12.810 units in June, 0,46% EV share vs 0,25% last year), with new cars showing up almost every month, last month the Chinese EV Market was only 103 units away from setting a new all time global monthly sales record, by the way, for the first time that the asian giant surpassed the US in the YTD sales (54.665 for China vs 54.177 for the USA).

The French market is also growing, it is now firmly above the 1% barrier, while the UK and Germany continue their way up, both with double digit growth rates.

The two EV champs, Netherlands and Norway, also had positive months, with the EV Share (5,94 % and 23,22% respectively), keep on being the envy of everyone else.

The only laggards on this club are the USA (0,64% this year vs 0,73% in '14) and Japan, the asian market is plunging to values of 2012 and there doesn't seem to exist signs of hope in the short term, if Japan was the Third largest EV Market in 2014 (And #1 in 2010), now is just...Seventh.

If the japanese EV sales continue to fall, this G8 could lose a member and change the name again to G7.

Forecasts in the G8

Early this year, i made some forecasts regarding this year, let's see how they stack up against the results in the first half of the year:

USA - 150.000 units/year, Leaf #1;

Given sales are at 54.000 and the second half of they year has always stronger sales, i think the numbers can end up a tiny bit higher than the 130K, the original number now seems too optimistic. Tesla is #1 for now, but with the manufacturer focusing on getting the Model X just right, the Model S might get a production slowdown, which might mean that the leadership could end up on Nissan Leaf's lap;

China - 120.000 units/year, Qin #1.

Year Two for this market, sales continue to go above expectations, the montlhy numbers are now consistently above the 10K area, with new players coming in, new record sales are expected, so i wouldn't be surprised if sales passed the 130K line by the end of the year. The Best Selling Plug-In in China this year is and will be the Qin, no doubt about it.

Japan - 32.000 units/year, Leaf #1;

The second semester is usually better in the Japanese EV market, but even so, with sales around 12K, it will be hard even to be close of this forecast, the japanese EV market is losing strength and there's no one in the short term capable of lifting it up. As for models, the Leaf is some 2.000 units above the Outlander, so it has a safe margin;

Norway - 25.000 units/year, Leaf #1.

What else can we say about this market? It just keeps on pushing bounderies, year after year, month after month. With 17K sales this year, the original forecast now looks small compared to it, better to update it to some 40K. As for models, big miss here, not only the Leaf if out of the leadership, but it's down to Third, surpassed by the VW e-Golf (Leader) and the Tesla Model S (Runner-up);

France - 19.000 units/year, Zoe #1;

Sales are at 12.000 units, but with the ever-increasing sales upwards trend in France, i believe that the forecast not only will be beaten by a long shot, but the 30K hallmark is possible. Zoe is #1, of course, nothing new here;

Netherlands - 19.000 units/year, Outlander #1;

A welcome surprise, with sales at 12.000 units in the first half of the month, i think the 25K area can be achieved with relative ease. The Outlander PHEV was outclassed by the Golf GTE, and it looks the trend won't change in the second half of the year;

Germany - 20.000 units/year, German Car #1;

In this Year Two of the German Electric Car, sales continue to grow at a steady pace (10.000 units this year vs 6.000 in 2014) so the 20K shoud be achievable. A surprise in the models leadership, the Outlander PHEV is leading the pack, followed by three domestic models (VW Golf GTE, BMW i3 and Audi A3 e-Tron), each of them looking to dethrone the auslander;

UK - 20.000 units/year, Outlander PHEV #1.

Another Year Two, sales continue to grow, with numbers already in the 15K area, so i wouldn't be surprised if sales reached some 30K by the end of the year. The Mitsu Outlander PHEV continues to be the Best Seller by a long shot, doubling sales of the #2 Nissan Leaf.

There are also big EV Share dips, besides the aforementioned case of Japan, Estonia is also down sharply, this year it has just 0,35% Share, when last year ended with 1,57%. Does anybody know the reason for this sales freeze in the baltic country?

Friday, July 24, 2015

Zoe EditionWith some 16.100 units, the European EV market had its second best month ever, with an 80% improvement YoY, with the 79k sold in the first half of the year, it looks that last year record result (100k) will be achieved by next August. Not bad, eh?

Looking at the monthly models ranking, the Renault Zoe made a brilliant result, selling 2.487 units (Year Best), almost reaching the #2 Nissan Leaf in the YTD Chart.

As for the rest of the monthly ranking, both the Tesla Model S and Nissan Leaf had positive YoY results, making three BEV's in the Top 5, while VAG's plug-in stars continue to impress: Both the Golf GTE and A3 e-Tron hit new personal records (1.705 units for the first, 931 for the second), meaning both will be major threats for the established players in the near future.

Final mention for the good performance of the Renault and Mercedes models, if the Zoe was #1 for the first time this year, both the Twizy and Kangoo ZE also hit year best performances, while on the german side, the B-Class continues its slow but steady sales increase (Record 363 units sold) and the C350e Plug-in Hybrid (363 units, a new record) was just 30 units below the D-Segment leader, the V60 Plug-In, and now looks ready to take on the swedish and become the leader in that niche.

Pl

Model

Sales

1

Renault Zoe

2.487

2

Tesla Model S

2.099

3

Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV

1.806

4

Volkswagen Golf GTE

1.705

5

Nissan Leaf

1.468

Looking at the YTD ranking, the Golf GTE climbed another step, it is now #5, switching positions with its e-Golf brother, the Renault Kangoo ZE also climbed one position to #11, dropping the VW e-Up! to #12, considering that the german city car already lost six positions regarding last year, it would be a good idea for Volkswagen to reconsider the price and provide a healthy rebate to it.

In the second half of the ranking, the Kia Soul EV jumped four positions to #14, thanks to a record month (373 sales), the Merc B-Class ED also took the time to climb, up two positions to #15, the same number of positions that it's poshier brother C350e climbed, up from #21 to #19....

The Loser of the Month award went to the BMW i8, down four positions from #14 to #18, selling just 111 units, its worst result in 10(!) months...

Looking at the brands ranking, Volkswagen's armada (Five models, the largest lineup) recovered even more ground to the leader Mitsubishi, both brands are separated by just 232 units in the YTD ranking and it looks that July will witness VW conquering Europe's EV Manufacturers Throne.

As for the Third Place, Renault distanced itself from its japanese cousin, Nissan, now a thousand sales away.

We now have an enlarged version of the ranking, covering the 30 best-selling EV's in Europe, allowing us to welcome the Mercedes S500e PHEV in #26, the Ford C-Max Energi in #27, or to salute the return to our radar of the Opel Ampera (Yes, it's still barely alive), in #30.