Many are called but few are chosen. The Jays have approximately two hundred and fifty players under contract at the end of a season when the newly drafted players mix with the no longer rookies. Out of that number only thirty can be chosen to be on the Batters Box Top 30 list. There are many other worthy candidates who just didn't play enough to be recognized or who haven't really matured yet and as a result haven't shown their true potential.

Last year Justin Nicolino didn't make our top 30, he was too new to the system. Luis Perez looked to have topped out as a AAA reliever. Both of those were able to shake-off the disappointment of not making the Batters Box top 30 to shine in 2011. Who will surprise with a break-out in 2012? Most likely it will be one of the players listed below. If you doubt that, consider that two of the prospects included in last year's feature were Adonis Cardona and Michael Crouse. Following a list of the prospects to watch, this article will conclude with a brief blurb on every player to receive a vote on any of the eight Top 30 lists.

Danny Barnes | RHP

Year

Age

Level

G

GS

IP

H/9

HR/9

BB/9

K/9

ERA

2010

20

RK

14

0

27.0

5.7

0.3

1.7

12.3

0.67

2010

20

A

8

0

10.2

14.3

0.0

6.8

13.5

5.91

2011

21

A

44

2

66.0

6.0

0.4

2.7

13.5

2.32

A Princeton product who was Toronto’s 35th-round pick in 2010, Danny Barnes showed some potential as a reliever in 2010 and then put together a very solid 2011. Thinking positively, his draft position may not quite reflect his talent, as Barnes missed most of 2009 due to injuries and then got off to a slow start at Princeton in 2010, although he pitched better towards the end of the season. Barnes admitted he was selected later than he thought, but stated it wasn’t a hard decision to sign and he signed quickly, which allowed him to pitch in the GCL.

The Jays converted him immediately to relief, despite the fact Barnes served mainly as a starter for Princeont. Barnes was promoted aggressively last year, graduating from the GCL, bypassing Auburn and finishing with Lansing. He spent all of 2011 with the Lugnuts, to dominating effect. Barnes struck out 99 batters in 66 innings and held opponents to a batting average of .184. He was victimized by a trio of long balls, but only gave up three unearned runs all season, as well. When he was drafted, it was reported that Barnes had difficulties against lefties and his splits from his 2010 time with the Lugnuts suggested he may be vulnerable to lefties. However, this year Barnes was particularly effective, striking out 47 of them in 28.2 innings and holding them to a batting average of .150. One further difference is that he registered a 1.79 groundball-to-flyball ratio against right-handed batters this year, but an 0.48 against lefties. This may be a small sample size or it may indicate that it is much easier for left-handed batters to elevate his pitches, whereas righties can only hit them into the ground.

Strikeouts are one of the more important idicators of success for a minor league pitcher and Barnes passes that test with flying colours. His strikeout-to-walk ratio takes a hit because of a bit of wildness, but I’d rather that than who has a much lower rate on both numbers. Barnes was very consistent all year, not posting an ERA above 3.00 until September, when he pitched all of two innings. Barnes finished third in the Midwest League in K/9 and seventh in the league in WHIP. As a low-round minor league reliever, Barnes will have to prove himself at every level and won’t get many breaks, but 2011 showed he is ready for his next test.

Yan Gomes | C

Year

Age

Level

AB

2B

3B

HR

BB

K

SB

CS

AVG

OBP

SLG

2009

21

RK

14

0

0

0

3

2

0

0

.357

.471

.357

2009

21

A-

223

23

2

2

22

37

0

2

.296

.363

.444

2010

22

A

26

2

0

0

3

11

0

0

.231

.290

.308

2010

22

A+

233

21

1

9

9

64

0

0

.275

.312

.489

2011

23

AA

276

18

1

13

25

75

0

0

.250

.317

.464

2011

23

AAA

14

1

0

0

1

4

0

0

.214

.267

.286

Yan Gomes is easily forgotten in a system that has three highly-regarding catching prospects in Travis d’Arnaud, AJ Jimenez and Carlos Perez – speaking of which, does any club have as good a trio of catching prospects as that – and he would also probably rank below Santiago Nessy on a prospect list done strictly on talent and potential. Originally drafted by the Red Sox in 2008, the Jays took Gomes in the 10th round in 2009. The Brazilian wasn’t expecting to be drafted by Toronto, but was pleasantly surprised, as he grew up a Jays fan.

It’s not common for a good defensive catcher to also get noticeable reps at 1B and DH, but that’s happened for Gomes the past two years, as he’s spent each season backing up d’Arnaud. Gomes reportedly has a quick 1.85-second release time. He threw out 33% of attempted runners this year, 6% more than d’Arnaud. He also equips himself well behind the plate, allowing only four passed ball against d’Arnaud’s 13 in just under half the playing time. In one interview, Gomes mentioned he modified his catching style noticeably during the year under the tutelage of Sal Fasano.

Aside from strong defence, Gomes also brings some power to the plate, although not a strong batting eye. This year his .781 OPS ranked third among New Hampshire regulars, although well behind d’Arnaud’s pace-setting mark. Gomes also finished second on the Fisher Cats in slugging percentage. The previous year, Gomes led Dunedin in OPS with an .801 mark, ahead of Gose, McDade and d’Arnaud. He also led the team in slugging percentage. Toronto decided to assign Gomes to the Arizona Fall League this year, which caught some by surprise. While this caught some by surprise and may have had as much to do with roster construction or other AFL considerations as anything else, but it may have also been a way of having Gomes both receive more playing time this year and evaluating his performance against some strong competition. Gomes will likely spend 2012 primarily serving as d’Arnaud’s backup at Las Vegas and hopefully continuing to work on his plate discipline, while the Jays try to determine how to deal with what may become a multitude of major league-calibre catchers.

Griffin Murphy | LHP

Year

Age

Level

G

GS

IP

H/9

HR/9

BB/9

K/9

ERA

2011

20

Rk

11

11

41.0

10.5

1.3

3.5

8.6

4.39

Let's not forget about Griffin Murphy, the Jays 61st overall pick in 2010, and the number 27 prospect on this list a year ago. Murphy had a tough 2011, particularly with his fastball command. While his fellow draftees were headed to Bluefield and Vancouver, Murphy stayed in the GCL and his July stunk. His ERA was over 8, his WHIP was over 2 and he walked 7 hitters in 17 innings. But August was better, although not perfect. His ERA came way down to 0.60 in 4 starts, his WHIP was a more respectible 1.27 and he had 14 strikeouts in 15 innings. His blemish was the 7 walks in 15 innings but overall he showed improvement.

If Murphy can build on that he should have a better 2012 and start living up to that high draft position.

Shane Opitz | SS

Year

Age

Level

AB

2B

3B

HR

BB

K

SB

CS

AVG

OBP

SLG

2011

19

A-

239

6

0

0

19

34

8

2

.259

.312

.285

The Jays have adopted a go-slow approach to prospect promotions, particularly in the their first full season. Most 2010 drafted players went to Bluefield or the GCL. The other option, Vancouver in the Northwest League, is a college age league where players are older than the other levels. So it was surprising when Shane Opitz was assigned to Vancouver and a sign of the Jays confidence in the rookie. Opitz was an 11th round pick in 2010 and was only 19 years-old, plus Opitz is a shortstop, a tough position for a rookie. But Opitz played very well, he hit .259 and showed a good eye at the plate with 19 walks and 34 K's. Those 34 K's in 239 at-bats gave Opitz a K rate of 14%, very good for a kid in a college league.

Opitz didn't show much power but that is OK for a young player. Opitz probably doesn't have superstar potential but he could make it as your typical scrappy infielder.

Roberto Osuna | RHP

Roberto Osuna was the Blue Jays top signing this season in the international market. The 16 year old pitcher is very advanced and was pitching in the mens Mexican League. The Jays had to do a deal with his Mexican team to sign Osuna.

Osuna is big for a 16 year-old, 6'3" and 230 pounds. The one concern about him is that he will have to watch his conditioning to make sure he doesn't get too big. At this stage Osuna's calling card is his command and feel for pitching. Osuna grew up around ballparks, his uncle (reliever Antonio Osuna) was a major leaguer and his father played as well. Osuna has a 90-94 mph fastball that he commands well, a good curve and a developing change-up.

Osuna will likely be in extended spring training and the GCL next season.

Kellen Sweeney | 3B

Year

Age

Level

AB

2B

3B

HR

BB

K

SB

CS

AVG

OBP

SLG

2010

18

RK

45

3

1

1

15

12

0

1

.267

.450

.444

2011

19

RK+

35

1

0

0

9

17

1

20

.114

.295

.143

Things did not go well for Kellen Sweeney in 2011. Toronto’s 2nd round pick in the 2010 draft and the brother of Oakland outfielder Ryan Sweeney, Kellen suffered from injuries in 2011 and did not make it onto the field very often. When he did, he was ineffective at best. Despite his down year, Sweeney is a very patient hitter, as he demonstrated both of the past seasons, who will wait for a pitch he wants to hit and doesn’t seem to let batting slumps affect his approach. He is balanced at the plate and could hit for a high average. He has shown the ability to hit the ball to all fields. With quick wrists, he can wait on pitches. Prior to the draft, he did display more power than Ryan did at the same age, although there are questions about how much power he’ll eventually develop.

He was drafted as shortstop, but some scouts questioned whether he would stick at the position and suggested he’d wind up at 2B and 3B. The Jays had him playing exclusively third in 2011. He moves well defensively, with good footwork and an overhand throw, which may have factored into his position switch. He is smooth in the field and has soft hands.

Sweeney may qualify for a mulligan for 2011, as he suffered an injury at the base of his bone near his thumb when he fell during a rundown. The injury went undiagnosed for a couple of weeks before the fracture was revealed, but it impacted his wrist and his swing. As Lyle Overbay demonstrated a couple of years ago, a wrist injury can be a difficult one to overcome for a batter. Sweeney’s spent much of the past three years injured, as he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2009. If he’s healthy in 2012, he could have a strong year and, if he doesn’t, he might begin to slip of the prospect radar

The other players who received at least one vote were:

Santigo Nessy is a big bodied 18 year-old catcher who played in the GCL this year. Nessy has received some negative comments because he looks heavy and his defense has also been described as needing work. But what if he works on his conditioning this winter and he shows up, Sean Nolin style, lighter next spring? That could help his D and his bat seems like it is promising after Nessy hit over .300 in this years GCL season. Nessy could surprise in 2012 but as a 19 year-old he is likely to stay in Florida and then head for Bluefield.

Jeremy Gabryszwki is a typical big right handed pitcher from Texas who the Jays selected in the second round in June. The major concern on him, pre-draft, was inconsistent velocity. Jeremy piched in 3 regular season games for the GCL Jays before getting a late promotion to Bluefield where he pitched in one game and in the playoffs. "Gaby" pitches with a screw in his elbow, placed there in 2008. Gabryszwki will start 2012 in extended spring training and from there should expect to return to Bluefield.

John Stilson was drafted this season and is another big RHP from Texas. Stilson has all the tools to be a #2 starter, big fastball, good change-up, breaking ball, competitor. But Stilson injured his shoulder in May and that dropped his draft status. Originally his injury was thought to be a torn labrum requiring surgery but a second diagnosis suggested the injury could be treated through rehab, and that is the path he has taken. 2012 will be a test of that rehab.

Dwight Smith Jr. was a first round supplementary choice, picked at number 53 overall. Smith didn't play in 2011 but his bat is reportedly his ticket to fame. He will likely play in left field and start 2012 in extended spring training.

Sam Dyson was drafted in 2010 but almost immediately had Tommy John surgery and missed all of 2011. He should be back pitching to start 2012 and the question for the Jays is should he start or relieve, and where will he play? He might get to skip the cold weather in Lansing to start the season, and he could pitch in relief for Dunedin or start in extended for a while.

Chad Beck is a hard throwing right handed pitcher who spent some time in Toronto to end the season. Beck was a starting pitcher in the minors but appears headed for a relief role if he was to make it in the major leagues. Beck has the velocity and pitches to be a major leaguer, he needs the command. Beck is headed to the AFL and his performance there could impact his future with the Jays.

Jorge Vega-Rosado was a 28th round pick who played well in the GCL and was named the Webster Award winner for that team. Vega-Rosado is a short shortstop who showed a good eye, speed and some power. As a 28th round pick Vega-Rosado will have to prove himself each year. Jorge did go to community college for a year and played as a 19 year old in the GCL. His 850 OPS was a standout in the hitting depressed rookie league.

Matt Dean profiles as a power hitting third baseman. Dean was a high school pick in 2011 and because of his college commitment he fell to the 13th round, but the Jays got him signed. Dean should start 2012 in Florida and work to make the Bluefield roster in June.

Thank you to the panel. This was quite a challenge IMO. You guys did a great job.

I am sure there will be disagreements & probably disappointments, but so what. I cannot expect the list to go on forever. But there is no way that M.WALDEN & T YBARRA do not get a mention. Just kidding.

I know some Bauxites keep a list of their own, I for one would like to hear your thoughts.

Vega-Rosado was signed for a $200,000 bonus, a lot for a 28th rounder. Perhaps there is something to the "slick-fielding" description of him, and the Jays saw a good package which might play in the middle infield 5 years from now. Incidentally, he also stole 22 bases and was caught 4 times in Rookie League, suggesting that he might have abilities on this front as well.

I am reminded of Orlando Hudson, who was signed as a shortstop in the 43rd round, and posted similar numbers in Rookie League at age 20.

Shane Opitz, as a left-handed hitter might make a good platoon player in the middle infield. Sweeney's injury is really too bad, I liked his outstanding plate discipline. The fact that Seth Conner (.395 OBP, decent power in GCL) isn't even mentioned as worth watching speaks volumes about the insane depth of this system.

I for one, can't wait to see how guys like Dean, Pompey, Vega-Rosado, Becerra, Lugo etc. perform as they move up through the system. The next few years will be very exciting as a Jays prospect fanatic. And with the great prospect coverage here at battersbox, I'm pretty sure I'm not the only one.

One more name to keep an eye on would be 7th rounder Christian Lopes. His stock slipped quite a bit as he was once thought of as a first round pick. The Jays scouts must have liked him a lot, because he was given an $800K bonus at the deadline.

My favourite comment from last year's prospect to watch list was from Gerry. He noted that Eric Thames was not on BA's Eastern League top 20 list because they thought he was an AAAA player. It is a healthy reminder not to take anyone's assessment too seriously.

BB's assessment of Jay prospects is, in my view, far superior to that provided by BA, but you still don't want to take it too seriously. If Sean Nolin is the best Jay prospect going into 2012, no one should be going back and saying, "look at that, BB rated him #27 going into the year, how wrong can you be?".

I was actually thinking about my own assessments of the past, some of which turned out to be dead on and all too many of which turned out to be dead wrong.

Based on the Top 30 list and the votes, it looks like there's nobody left on the Justin Jackson and Kevin Ahrens bandwagon. I still remember leading up to the 2007 Draft when people compared Kevin Ahrens to Chipper Jones.

Sean Nolin actually isn't that close to my heart, although I like him. I like most of the position player prospects quite a bit from D'Arnaud/Marisnick/Gose to Jiminez/Perez to Anderson/McDade. I feel pretty much the same way about most of the pitching prsopects.

It's a very deep system, in my view. The club has had a terrific year from the developmental perspective (and incidentally if one is going to give Anthopoulos a grade, one ought to give him some share of the credit for that). So many players took big steps forward and many of them were out of the blue.

bball12, Nice to hear from you. Mastro impressed you and your standards are high. I regret labeling him a D prospect. Did you ever see Ryan Freel & Ryan Roberts play and what did you think?
I have not seen any of them play much, but Freel brought a lot of energy to the game. Utility type players IMO that did better than expected. Marco Scuttoro is the high water mark for me.

That's a fair preference and a list of perhaps the six guys with the highest upside on the list (you could perhaps argue Nessy or Dean should be in there). The authors tried to highlight some players with high upside, like Osuna, and some players with more limited ceilings but who could still be contributors, like Opitz or Barnes. These players will never be superstars, but could find a role on a big league roster.

As for Wes Etheridge, he was old, due to his time away from the sport, but had a good year. He'll need to keep proving himself, but he's earned an opportunity to do so and older minor league relievers can move quickly. Look at the closer for a World Series contender - Milwaukee's John Axford - for a recent example. We could have chosen to profile him as well if we had more space and time.

bpoz - I have been reading it all - and yes - I have seen those guys play.

I think you will see Mastro in a utility role somewhere initially (just not Toronto) - as he can play all 3 OF positions as well as 2b - (and SS/3B in a pinch).

This year he was hampered by knee tendonitis and a bad hamstring for the first half of the season (went on DL for almost a month with it) - but when he came back he looked more like he always has.He was also bounced around like a yoyo - from the beginning of the season to the end.

He may be the most underrated player in the whole system - and perhaps the most jerked around as well.

When he does well - the rap is he is old for whatever league he is in. They have had to use that excuse alot as he was real good in year 1 - year 3 - year 4 (and winter of year 4 in Venezuela)(By the way - Year 2 was his Tommy John surgery year as soon as the season ended)

A hard road for a pretty good player and not something the Jays organization have handled well - with 2011 being a real mess.Watching retread after retread after retread - all stinking up the field consistently.

And then - the cherry on top - with the Jays out of it - the Dewayne Wise debacle being the death knell.

I loved the Lawrie move - the Thames move and even the Loewen/Cooper move in the last month.Good younger players that should have had a chance to show what they have for a team that has been losing for 20 years.But the Dewayne Wise - instead of Mastro - move was just plain stupid. Simple as that. Inexplicable and stupid.

I hope you know that I am going to get crucified for this post - LOL - but you started it.Any support would be greatly appreciated - as I think I am going to need it badly.

I saw Etheridge get knocked around for 2 2/3 innings in New Britain in August. He has a very low arm angle (almost sidearm) with a lot of movement and velocity consistently in the mid-80s. He has a very slight build. He's listed at 6'1", 185', but that seems exaggerated.. I'm taller and weigh less than that, but he looks WAY thinner than me.. I'd guess he's more like 160 or 170 lbs. I would be shocked if he ends up as more than an org guy, but I guess with his deception and movement, and ability/willingness to throw strikes, you never know.

There are others who haven't been mentioned, too, including Pierre, Nolan, Goins, Berti, Crawford, Estrada. Some of these, like Pierre, had very poor seasons, but have shown promise in the past. Goins just seems to be making steady progress up the ladder, although he hasn't done anything truly outstanding. I remember them mentioning Crawford in spring training as a guy who could get a shot as a LOOGY this year - didn't happen of course.

I think the ship has sailed regarding Ahrens. Jackson showed some signs of life early this season, but struggled in AA. He's still just 22 though, so he has a chance to improve a lot from where he's at now, and I'm not ready to completely write him off. Regarding Matroianni, he had quite a good season in 2010 and I thought he was a decent prospect, but with limited upside given his age. I saw him a couple of times in spring training and he didn't look good at all. This season was pretty bad, and maybe the injuries were part of the reason, but he still got 488 AB's, so he played a lot. He was age 25/26 during the season. Hit .254 in AA and then .276 at Vegas. Making the adjustment for that park and league, which I peg at about 50-60 points of batting average, I'd put him at about .220-.225, which is pretty much in line with .256 at AA. Given that a player typically improves only until about age 27, and that he has a long way to go from his 2011 season, I think he has very little chance of becoming a significant major league player. If he can make a big jump from his 2011 season next year, maybe he gets a shot somewhere, but I think that's quite unlikely.

A.A. has said prospects will no longer be rushed to the Majors. Prior to this time, that was the norm. They don't experience all the training, coaching and just life that can be had in a prospect's development. Any injuries usually cost status as a prospect. If you need more instruction, that can mean lost in status. After all, it occurs at this site. Darin Mastroianni's injury history and lack of power cost him dearly. His one game trial cost him more. Brandon Morrow (rushed: 16.0 IP in RK-A+, Draft year), Travis Snider (rushed: 743 AB, from A), Brett Cecil (rushed: 118.2 IP in A+-AA-AAA), Brad Mills (rushed: 147.1 in A-A+-AA) and many others did not develop properly, to their detriment. Anyone drafted prior to A.A.`s time as G.M. was treated like this. Something to think about isn`t it.

....But the Dewayne Wise - instead of Mastro - move was just plain stupid. Simple as that. Inexplicable and stupid....

There is a very plausible explanation for the DeWayne Wise move: the Jays wanted some defensive stability in the outfield, following the Rasmus injury, and they decided that Wise is a better defender than Mastro. With all their young pitchers in September, the Jays wanted to ensure that the centrefield defence was as strong as possible, so they chose Wise, rather than Mastro. You might disagree with this explanation, but it is, at least, an explanation -- and therefore it's not really accurate to call it "inexplicable." Better to say "the Jays have an explanation for the decision, but I disagree with the explanation."

I know some Bauxites keep a list of their own, I for one would like to hear your thoughts.

the three lists plus the extras amount to 36 names from BB. I'm gonna round up to 40

Among the top 40 guys on my list, these were not on the lists but a few of them did get an "also mentioned" - in order -

DeanBacerraStilsonSmithLopesLoewenLugoBiggs

conversely, thees guys ranked by BB were not in my top 40:(bottom up)

OpitzGomes (got him 43)Barnes (love him but the caveat about low-minors relievers gives me pause)ArceTaylorCarreno (I filed him under "graduated" even though that turned out to not technically be true - I should plug him in at around #26 or so)

Here's an interesting comparison:

McDade played in 125 games, and Gomes played in 79 (at AA). if you pro-rate Gomes' appearances to match McDade, here's how the counting stats work out:

From prior posts I know that you are not much of a Mastro fan.Let me offer a respectful counterpoint.You say he had a good 2010. I say he had a very good 2007, 2009 and 2010 - as well as a 2010 winter in Venezuela.

As for 2011 - you post the full year average.I post what I saw after the all-star break (healthy) - he played well.

You post what you saw in Spring training - a few at bats.I post that he had 18 at bats in spring training - less than one a day. So much for getting the mojo going.There were guys who got more at bats in one weekend in spring training.

You post he will never be a significant player.I post he will be a utility player - or more - but only for another team.Every player in MLB is significant to the team - something that winning teams understand and losing teams do not.Even utility players.

Here's the final thought - you post he has limited upside.How about Patterson - Rivera - Davis - Wise and McCoy - do they have limited upside too?Or just proven downside and 5 to 8 more years of age?

And Richard - did you actually say "one-game trial"?3 at bats? (At least in one of the at bats he actually got the bunt down - something that has proven difficult for the Jays.)

Given that a one game trial is now the standard - what do you think about 50 game trials?Or even 100 or 200 game trials.Does that mean you have written off Rasmus - and Cooper - and Snider - and Drabek - and Loewen also?

You also mention his "injury history."Lets see - 5 years of pro ball - including off season AFL and Venezuela - something like 2,800 plate appearances in 5 seasons.About 580 plate appearance per year - how does someone with a bad injury history do that?

Perspectives and the numbers used to justify them are always interesting.

I do agree with you both on this one fact - he is no longer a Blue Jays prospect, he is not in the Blue Jays plans and he does not fit the Blue Jay mold.

Lets just hope that AA doesn't trot out yet another round of retreads next year in the role of 4th OF/Utility.You may not think that role means anything to the team - but all you have to do is look at this years performance from that slot - and you may think a bit differently.Horrible - simple as that.

Yankees lose - Red Sox lost - I am now fully satisfied and set for the Winter !!!

This year he was hampered by knee tendonitis and a bad hamstring for the first half of the season (went on DL for almost a month with it

Mastro played 123 games not including his time with the Jays and travelling to and from his time time with the Jays. He played 131 games in 2010 and 132 in 2009. So he played basically a full season give or take a few games. Certainly didn't miss a month.

Has there been any discussions here re: Elias Rankings of Type A or B Free Agents? If so, would somebody please direct me to that posting. I am curious where Kelly Johnson finished. Personally I hope he is a B and not an A. I don't want him back and if he is an A he is much more likely to accept arbitration (which if I were the Jays I would not offer).

The benefit of retreads is that you can let them go easily. Rivera if he is considered a retread was not just DFA'd, AA felt that he had to find a spot for him IMO. Of course I could be wrong and when Rivera was offered there were takers. Jojo Reyes, Tallet & T Miller were just DFAd.

I think we had 1 day successes in S Richmond (1 out) & Mastro (bunt). The Jays site will not give me stats today.

AA does not need defending, but I am curious to understand. McCoy was used a lot in his last recall (IF & CF), injuries provided the opportunity. Loewen & Cooper had limited opportunities available. When Rasmus came back he played, which of course he should.
I guess they used the proper rotation right to the end.
Farrell must have had a say and also putting out a competitive lineup against teams involved in trying to make the post season is the right thing to do.

Who would you recoomend for 2B next season? KJ is looking like a better option than most.

About 3 or 4 weeks ago I heard Wilner on the Fan590 say that if the KJ audition did not work (and I don't think it did for the more competitive version of the Jays to come next year) that the Jays would look elsewhere. He followed that up by saying there are more than just rumblings that they will go after Brandon Phillips from the Reds who have a $12M club option in 2012 (2013 FA). Apparantly there is a tie of some kind between him and someone on our coaching staff (I believe he said Farell). He is a much better hitter than KJ IMO. Anyone care to comment on this fielding stats?

About 3 or 4 weeks ago I heard Wilner on the Fan590 say that if the KJ
audition did not work (and I don't think it did for the more competitive
version of the Jays to come next year) that the Jays would look
elsewhere. He followed that up by saying there are more than just
rumblings that they will go after Brandon Phillips from the Reds who
have a $12M club option in 2012 (2013 FA). Apparantly there is a tie of
some kind between him and someone on our coaching staff (I believe he
said Farell). He is a much better hitter than KJ IMO. Anyone care to
comment on this fielding stats?

I don't see how he is a much better hitter.

Phillips 272/322/434, 96 OPS+KJ 260/343/441, 106 OPS+

They're about the same age (actually KJ is younger), and KJ has a fairly significant advantage in the all important OBP.

One thing you can say about Phillips is he's been more consistent lately, whereas KJ has had a couple of down years in the last three.

I think where KJ and Phillips contrast the most is in their defense and contact rates. In my opinion, Phillips has been a consistently excellent defensive 2B for a number of years and, objectively, he has a very low strikeout rate (approx. 12%, I believe). Those seem like fairly attractive alternatives to KJ's average defense and high-strikeout rates, but Phillips will be far more expensive (at least this year), will want a medium-long term deal, and he is entering his decline years.

^^ Don't disagree with the principle that a strikeout is just an out. I suppose I am more concerned with Johnson's upward trends in K% rate the past 3 seasons - 16%, 22%, 27%. Usually a trend like that doesn't bode well for predicting future offensive success.

So, the current rumour then is the Jays chasing down Votto and Phillips from the Reds for prospects plus Lind?

Phillips (via BR) is a 2 WAR player, peaking at 4.1 last year. Fangraphs though has him as a 3-4 WAR player with a peak of 6.0 last year and a 5.1 in 2007. Guess it depends on your evaluation of his defense. His option for 2012 becomes a mutual one if traded so he'd probably opt out. Guess that means the Jays pay the $1 mil buyout and get 2 draft picks (Phillips is type A). A 3 year, $45 million deal would be the minimum he'd want. If FanGraphs is right he'd be worth it ($14.7 mil or more in value per year since 2007). If B-R is right then he is a $10 mil a year player.

Votto is a great hitter and would be nice and would be the centerpiece of a deal.

The only way I see it happening though is if Cincinnati decides they cannot compete for the next 2 years thus wants to slash payroll and gain prospects. Other high pay guys are Jay Bruce (still cheap for his production, not available), Johnny Cueto (still cheap for 2 years, bargain at twice the price), Bronson Arroyo (77 ERA+, owed $13.5 over the next 2 years), and Francisco Cordero (decent closer, low K, 2012 is an option at $12 mil or $1 mil buyout, type A if bought out).

Given Cincinnati is the NL Central I don't see how they could see themselves as out of it for 2012. Yes, they were 17 games out of first but Milwaukee has a big free agent likely to leave, and the Reds won the division in 2010 with just 91 wins. Still, never hurts to see. Take Votto, Phillips, and Cordero away thus saving Cincinnati $2 mil in buyouts while taking up to 4 draft picks (cheap teams sometimes don't want lots of them or high ones due to cost) and things could get interesting. Lots of prospects would vanish (5 of them I'd guess) but boy would it be interesting.

Enduring Wise's painful-to-watch AB's was not pleasant. And if we want to question bringing Wise in over playing Mastro, that's one of the things this board is for.

But when posters call Jays management "stupid", to me it destroys the credibility of their arguement. AA and player development people know far more about their players than we do, no matter how much we would like to think otherwise. If people want to call Jays management cheap, I can understand, given the facts. But the one word that is the antithesis of the current Jays organization is stupid. They have legitimate reasons to make the decisions they do, sometimes with information we're not privy to. Some of their moves may work out better or worse than management expected, because they're dealing with human beings. But stupid? I don't think so.

Napoli for Francisco was, um, difficult to understand. Every GM has his lesser moments, and hopefully has the humility to acknowledge that occasionally a stupid decision was made. The Wise/Mastroianni situation was, of course, nothing like Napoli/Francisco.

But the one word that is the antithesis of the current Jays organization is stupid. They have legitimate reasons to make the decisions they do, sometimes with information we're not privy to. Some of their moves may work out better or worse than management expected, because they're dealing with human beings. But stupid? I don't think so.

Anthopoulos partially justified bringing Wise back by saying the team wanted to honour its commitment to the player. Wise had been signed in the spring to be a depth guy and potential call-up if there was a need for an outfielder, but a spot never opened up at the major league level and the club allowed him to go elsewhere. When there was a need for an outfielder in August, Wise happened to be available and the club grabbed him.

The vast majority of minor league free agents spend the entire year at AA or AAA and contribute absolutely nothing at the major league level, but occasionally there are guys worth signing. If giving Wise 32 meaningless at-bats shows players and agents that the Blue Jays keep their word and are a good organization to play for, it could help the team attract the next Scott Downs or Ryan Vogelsong.

It's far from clear that the Napoli-Francisco trade was "stupid." Personally I would have rather see the Jays keep Napoli, but there is a legitimate argument that can be made in defence of the deal. By acquiring Francisco, the Jays won the right to a compensation pick in the next draft (assuming Francisco rejects arbitration) -- something that wouldn't have been possible with Napoli until the 2013 draft if at all. In retrospect, Napoli could have helped the Jays to win two or three extra games in 2011, but that would have been meaningless to a 4th-place team. Moreover, he would have sharply reduced the plate appearances for Encarnacion and Lind in 2011, and the Jays would have less idea of where they stood with both of those players. Finally, Francisco did pretty well for the Jays for most of the 2011 season, and ended up as the best closer they had. In balance, Napoli's benefits to the Jays would not necessarily have been greater than the benefits of Francisco and the likely compensation pick.

I guess that is possible. I am not wildly impressed with the strategy of collecting average relievers (or slightly better) and paying them millions of dollars in the hope that you will perhaps be able to get a supplemental pick (if you feel safe in offering arbitration and the reliever chooses to refuse it).

Speaking of Napoli, I didn't realize it but he had his best season yet throwing out runners. Thieves were 21-12, or not even at the break-even point. They actually fared better (and tried much more often) against Torrealba. Napoli had a great year, easily the best of his career. At one point, Napoli was available in the Rule 5 draft, and Marc Hulet noticed his strengths and recommended him. Count that as a hit.

Napoli for Francisco was, um, difficult to understand. Every GM has his lesser moments, and hopefully has the humility to acknowledge that occasionally a stupid decision was made.

Did ANYONE think Napoli would put up the numbers he did this year? Because if they did, AA would have probably been offered much better than Francisco.

At the time of the trade, Napoli was a poor defensive platoon catcher (killed LHP, increasingly struggled vs RHP) who could also play 1st and DH. We had those positions filled with JPA, Molina, Lind and EE. And as we saw this year, the Jays did need a decent late inning reliever. Unfortunately, it was only in the 2nd half of the season that FF pitched to his potential.

Let's say Rasmus never reverts back to his 2010 form and continues to decline, while Stewart or Rzep become a star. Would that have been a stupid trade or simply a good decision at the time that didn't work out as expected?

Hyerbole's comment is spot on. No one saw the season Napoli had coming. His highest OPS+ before this year was 147 in 2008. He was averaging around 115-120 for his career. This year he's at 171. To his credit though this year his walks are up and k's are down, but I'd be willing to bet that this year might be a bit of an outlier.

Mitigating factors in the Napoli deal was that the Jays had already signed EE to DH, Arencibia was going to catch & there was absolutely no market for Juan Rivera - I didn't like the deal but I understood the club thinking

Yeah, but the prevailing understanding at the Box at the time was mostly that it was a bad trade (perhaps aimed at persuading other GMs that you could deal with AA without having to give both your shirt and your pants) or the first part of a series of trades involving other relievers (these deals did not happen).

In fact, a careful reading of the thread from last January shows that there was no prevailing consensus on whether it was a good deal or a bad deal. Some people liked it, some didn't like it. Also, some of the criticism at the time of the trade was due to the perception that Encarnacion wasn't a very good DH or 1B (later proven wrong). And some of the other criticism was due to the perception that the Jays bullpen was over-stuffed (later proven wrong when the bullpen surplus was converted into Colby Rasmus).

I'll agree that Napoli performed even better than expected, but I certainly thought it was a bad trade at the time (if anyone is cross-referencing to my post at the time, YES, I was being facetious with my proposed theories on why AA would do the trade).

EE had an OPS+ of 110. Just like 2010. Just like he can be expected to do in 2012. That's not proving himself as a good DH or 1B, that's barely a passing grade.

Arguing that the Jays were all set with JPA, Lind, EE, and Molina is like saying you're really happy with how your poker hand is shaping up when your first 4 cards are dealt 3-4-5-7. You gotta get real lucky to be right about that.

By the way guys there is a player in the Phillies organization that wont see a day in the MLB in a phillies uniform. He is a beast with the bat and is the type of player the blue jays like. I think AA could get him for peanuts. Can you guess who?

Half agree with Mike Green about the signing of mediocre relievers in the hope of acquiring draft picks.It was a good idea while they were building up the system but i think the time to give that up is pretty well upon us.Napoli was traded probably because we had already committed to EE .In retrospect we would have been better off with Napoli but we had so many young catchers on the way and I'm not sure if a better deal was out there. You don't win them all and I will give AA credit for being an excellent trader.

I thought Napoli for FF was a good deal. I did not know who was getting the cash.Jays got the cash but I do not know how much.
We desperately needed a closer and FF has experience & a 95-97 MPH FB. He looked like a solution. Napoil was awesome, great deal for Texas, a big piece for them. So I am wrong, but I think I do it again. I need a closer & I give up a piece that I think I have replaced.

I too think Rauch, Fraser & Dotel are mediocre as a closer. FF has the raw stuff & experience, IMO. But if FF fails then your season most likely is lost... ie just like before Henke.

If someone closes for us as well as the elite closers are doing then we have no problem to deal with. But if not then AA has to fix it Mid season or whenever. Or at least make a move or 2 as a serious attempt to fix it.

By the way guys there is a player in the Phillies organization that wont see a day in the MLB in a phillies uniform. He is a beast with the bat and is the type of player the blue jays like. I think AA could get him for peanuts. Can you guess who?

bball12, throwing yourself to the wolves? Your line up is a good launching pad for a 2012 lineup.
The 1b, 2B & LF are where you want to improve. Trade or FA... I am not sure why or how much our current guys are not good enough. Lind, Thames & Snider could be OK. If Manny Lee could play for our winning teams then maybe we can survive with a utility player at 2B. The others will have to pick him up.

You are going for the 96 win season, which is the goal. I am only setting my sights on 90+, ie not 89 or lower. A huge difference but I will be patient next year again.

Replacement level players & mediocre relievers will clearly state that 2012 is not the year. We don't have any reclamation projects in hitting or pitching and hopefully we don't get some in. I don't mind a utility player at 2B and some sort of best attempt for closer.

You do not mention specifics on pitching. I think we have the numbers & talent for a good rotation & pen already (minus closer) BUT will Morrow, Drabek deliver. Looks like they will try Morrow for sure.

You would think from some of the posters comments that they actually own the team or play on it - Very personal - alot of pent up frustration (20 years of losing will do that and I do understand) and unwilling to face the truth about the mistakes made.Without facing the mistakes head on - you cant fix them. They need to ponder that a bit. Fortunately they are a tiny minority on this site.I also dont care much for some of the vitriol directed at the prospects - just not my style. It is unbecoming for a site as good as this one.

That being said - lets talk about the MLB players.

Thames - DH - cant have him in the field.

Lind - make a deal (Hint - Phillies) - He isnt bad - but I see rapid decline.

Snider - trade him. He is young - has value and needs a change. They messed him up really bad.

Johnson - dont sign him - he just isnt worth the money.

Pitchers - spend some money. Actually - spend alot.

And - No - repeat - No retreads. If you are going to lose - I rather lose with younger players that have yet to prove how truly bad they are.

I don't know what to make of him. Good numbers, patient, but the bat seems slow to me in the small amount of video I've seen.
Hit 361/452/632 in reading in 2010 and then repeated AA as a 25 year old. That's unusual.

I like bball12 's ideas. In the Outfield, RF is set with Jose Bautista; CF is set with Colby Rasmus; LF is a gaping hole in the roster. In the Infield, 1B is a worry; 2B is another big hole; SS is set with Yunel Escobar; 3B is set with Brett Lawrie; C is set with JP Arencibia; DH is a worry. Your Bench should consist of people who can play 150+ games at the position needed. Spending money on your Bench is not a bad thing. The Rotation is Ricky Romero and a bunch of question marks. The Bullpen's only assets are Casey Janssen, Jesse Litsch, Carlos Villanueva, provided there are 4 new faces brought in.

LF: Travis Snider is of no use to this team until he learns to use his whole body to hit, not just his upper half. Eric Thames is a work in progress on defense. His bat is good enough to keep, his defense is not. Baring an offseason acquisition, I would try Adam Loewen at LF, until he proves he can't do it.

2B: With the way he's played, Aaron Hill is more likely to be an Diamondback next season than a free agent. Baring an offseason acquisition, Kelly Johnson is the Top 2B Free Agent in a weak 2B field, plus, he bats Left. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/johnske05.shtml His numbers here were decent. An A.A. Special: 2 years plus 2 option years at $6.0 MM - $6.5MM per would work.

1B: Adam Lind is unlikely to get better-enough to let his defense carry him. However, baring an offseason acquisition, he's cheap enough to keep a while longer. Unfortunately, he's just not good enough to back up Bautista.

D.H.: Should be a Big Bat that can play another position if necessary. IMO Encarnacion is not the Big Bat we need. Depending upon acquisitions, Thames, Loewen, Lind might play here.

Rotation: A Front-of-the-Rotation acquisition, someone equal to or better than Ricky Romero, is mandatory. Brandon Morrow might take the next step, he needs to. He might be the only other Starter to be a lock for next season. Henderson Alvarez looks to have the best stuff. A competition for 5th Starter will be good for this team.

I am not suggesting that a straight up deal would be possible - or even advisable.On the other hand - I wouldn't mind if we picked him up cheaply and gave him a shot.

It might knock Cooper out of the loop for awhile - or - he could be tried at a DH spot.Either way - I am not optimistic that Lind is going to do much in the future.

I will go so far as to say this - if - and its a big if - the Jays spend some money and shore up their pitchingand if AA can pull off just 1 blockbuster trade for a position player - the Blue Jays will make the playoffs next year.

Position player wise - The holes they have to fill arent earth shattering.

They can live with Lind if need be -and I think Thames will be fine as a DH

They just need better defense in LF and 2b - and a better bench. Not exactly monumental challenges.And Rasmus needs to produce.

One thing is clear to me - if they can shore up their pitching and are willing to open the wallet a bit and trade a bonafide prospect or two - The Jays can be real contenders in 2012. and a team to be reckoned with.

I really think they are that close and I think that AA will surprise us again - like he has this past year.

I think it's very likely we'll see 6 Jays in BAs Top 100 Prospects, with an outside chance of 7 or 8.

Locks: d'Arnaud, Gose, Marisnick, Hutchison, Nicolino, Syndergaard. Other possibilities are: Hechavarria, Norris, and McGuire. I think McGuire makes it, making it 7 in the top 100, which would be sweet. My guess the highest ranking would be d'Arnaud ranking no higher than 18. With the others slotting in after the top 40.

Looking back from last offseason, with the rumors of Justin Upton's asking price of Drebek, Snider, plus another top prospect (someone perhaps like Gose/Marisnick), does anyone turn down that trade now, with the season that Drebek and Snider had? I would now but back then, I was anti-trading of top prospects but now, I won't care whom they move to get a young controlable MLB everyday player. To me, no prospect is untouchable.

I sure hope FA compensation isn't changed too much. If they do, baseball is pretty much saying to the smaller market teams, 'not only will you not be able to afford your good players, but when they leave via Free Agency, we're going to take away your ability to build your team via young and controllable talent.'

I don't know. Phillips plays in a favourable hitting park in the NL Central. His career line is .272/.322/.434. He is, according to UZR, a very good defender at second base. DRS isn't quite as optimistic. He definitely is sure-handed, but he is also 30 and his SB/CS rates have declined from 25/2 to 14/9. He is rated as a very good baserunner.

Going forward, expecting him to be more than a 3-3.5 win player for a couple of years does not seem reasonable once one takes UZR with a grain of salt.

Interview at http://jaysprospects.com/ with Thon. He indicates that the disorder was a kidney ailment which he is still recovering from. I guess this fully explains why he was always being pulled early in games.