摘要:散裝航運經營通常沒有固定之航線，散裝船舶將面對全球各區域港口國管制官員檢查。港口國管制官員主要係依據船舶目標點數總和進行各別船舶檢查，以及主要依據船舶缺失項目進行各別船舶扣船。基於散裝航運公司立場，本文採用指數分布發展隨機變數之方法，找出船舶檢查與扣船機率密度函數，構建因應港口國管制船舶檢查機率與扣船機率模式。實證結果顯示，船舶經理人、船籍國、船級、船舶歷史、船舶特性等會影響船舶檢查機率，缺失項目數量會影響船舶扣船機率，而且船舶檢查機率與扣船機率均會對傭船業務造成影響。本文研究結果可以提供散裝航運公司作為船舶營運管理因應對策之參考。Abstract:In general, the operation of dry bulk shipping does not abide by certain routes, and bulk carriers are often confronted with the inspections of port state control officers (PSCO) all over the world. The individual execution of the PSCO inspection complies with the total targeting scores of each vessel, and the arrest of vessels is carried out in accordance with the vessels' deficiencies. Based on the standpoint of bulk shipping corporations, this paper adopted the exponential distribution to develop a random-variable method, and then determine the density function of both vessel examinations and the probability of vessel arrest, thereby constructing the model responding to the vessel inspection possibility of the PSC as well as the vessel arrestment probability. The results of the study showed that ship managers, flag states, vessel classification and the history and characteristics of vessels can affect the probability of vessel inspections, while the number of deficient items can have impacts on the probability of vessel arrestment. Additionally, the potentiality of vessel examination and arrest may also exert influence on shipping companies' chartering business. The outcomes of this research can be used as applicable references for the policy-making of bulk shipping corporations' operation.