Thoughts on Cal’s loss and the Pac-12 tourney coming later today, but I wanted to touch on Saint Mary’s status quickly (or not-so-quickly) …

The Gaels have reason to be nervous about their prospects. Very, very nervous. Before we examine the nitty gritty, a few matters of note regarding the selection process:

*** The at-large selections are voted into the field of 68 on a relative basis: How does Team A compare to Teams B, C, D, etc.

Nobody gets evaluated in a vacuum, which makes it difficult, if not impossible, to know for certain that the Gaels are in … or out.

*** Another unknown is the potential for bid stealing during conference tournaments this weekend. Every time a team that would not have made the at-large field earns an automatic bid, it knocks out one bubble team.

(The potential for bid stealing is limited, based on results thus far. But it’s not impossible.)

* West Coast Conference commissioner Jamie Zaninovich is on the selection committee and able to answer factual questions about the Gaels. But when it comes time to debate and vote on SMC, he’ll be out of the room.

* In my opinion, the key players in the process will be Scott Barnes, the AD at Utah State, and Peter Roby, the AD at Northeastern.

They’re the committee members assigned to monitor the West Coast Conference — every member focuses on a handful of leagues throughout the season — and their assessment of the Gaels (and the WCC) will matter a great deal.

That’s particularly true, in my estimation, because SMC has played so few games against top competition, thus leaving the committee less substance with which to compare the Gaels to other at-large candidates.

(My guess is that SMC will pass the so-called eye test, given that it’s well-coached/well-organized on the court.)

But would a positive review from the two WCC monitors, combined with a handful of favorable data points, be enough to catapult the Gaels into the field?

Here’s the potential problem, as I see it: The Gaels have played just four games against top-50 (RPI) opponents — in other words: tournament-caliber opponents — and have just one victory (at home against Creighton in the BracketBusters event).

What’s more, 22 of their 26 wins have come against teams in the RPI 101+ category — in other words: non-tournament-caliber opponents.

There is an old saying in the committee room that you’re stuck with your family, but you choose your friends.

The Gaels can’t do anything about their conference opponents, but they have full control over the 45 percent of the schedule that doesn’t involve WCC teams.

Time and time again, the committee has looked favorably on at-large candidates that challenge themselves out of conference, especially those that know in advance they won’t be playing a bevy of high-RPI games in their league.

You could make a good case that the Gaels came up short on that front, starting with a non-conference strength of schedule that was No. 128 nationally (according to nitty-gritty report released by the NCAA on Monday).

But the committee will dig deeper into the matter. It will attempt to determine whether the Gaels made a valiant effort to play a challenging schedule, only to be undermined by opponents that did not perform to expectations through the course of the season.

The answer, in my opinion, is no: The Gaels could have put together a much tougher schedule than they did.

Coach Randy Bennett doesn’t schedule the so-called guarantee games — one-shot dates on the home floor of a BCS-conference opponent. That’s certainly his prerogative, but it left the Gaels overly reliant on the DirecTV Classic in Anaheim to bolster their non-conference SOS.

Hoping to play Cal for the title, the Gaels lost to Pacific in the semis and dropped into the consolation game, where they not only played but lost to Georgia Tech (current RPI: 130).

In other words, SMC whiffed on its best non-conference opportunity to juice its SOS. The remainder of the schedule includes Creighton, sure, but it also has four RPI 200+ teams.

Add the WCC teams in that category, and 10 of SMC’s 26 wins are over 200+ opponents. Not good.

Now, I realize the Gaels are No. 30 in the NCAA’s latest RPI, just above UCLA, which is an at-large lock.

But there’s more to the selection process than the raw RPI number. The Gaels have several key factors working against them — factors that could take on far more significance in the committee room than they do in the popular bracketology projections around the web.

The Gaels should expect the worst but hope for the best on Sunday. It could be very, very close.

They get in because of two things – (1) being the second best team in a competitive league that had the #1 team in the country and (2) Delly sinking BYU with a half-court shot in Provo. That, combined with their record gets them in.

John M.

Mid-majors do not have “full control” of their schedule. That would assume any mid-major can play any team they want at any time. Scheduling is a two-way street. Even if Bennett was willing to play “guarantee” games, that doesn’t mean the BCS schools have to accept. Duke was willing to play Santa Clara because they assumed Santa Clara would be an easy win (and good on the Broncos for giving them a fight). But there’s currently no upside to a BCS school to scheduling stronger mid-majors like Saint Mary’s that could actually beat them.

I’m not disagreeing with the idea that Saint Mary’s needs to challenge itself more. Gonzaga built its reputation by playing a grueling schedule year after year. But I think there’s a false assumption that there are loads and loads of BCS coaches that would be happy to play Saint Mary’s if only Randy Bennett would just give them a call.

mk92

Lunardi has Saint Mary’s as one of the last four teams getting a bye (so not even relegated to Dayton)…just behind Cal. I agree with Lunardi — they are in decent shape.

OT

Lunardi’s bracket is in flux. The 4 teams on Lunardi’s “Last 4 In”: La Salle, Kentucky, Virginia, and Tenneessee all have a chance to improve their resumes over the weekend to leapfrog both Cal and Saint Mary’s.

I expect both Cal and Saint Mary’s to go to Dayton for a FIRST FOUR game, and I would not be surprised if the committee were to make Cal play Saint Mary’s for a spot in the Round of 64.

AZCATFAN

Maybe if they played in a real conference and played a better out of conference schedule they wouldn’t have that issue.

Facts:
Bad Losses to Georgia Tech….500 team in a weak SEC conference
Loss to Pacific…. Another bad loss
Really… Lost to northern iowa?

Impressive wins…. ZERO

Fact is, they would be lucky to be a .500 team in a true power conference. Zag is the only team that deserves A bid this year from this conference.

Dan

I don’t know if St. Mary’s deserves to be in or not and I don’t really care one way or the other, but I do know that some of the selection criteria that Wilner mentions are a joke. Conference monitors? Eye test? If you’re going to take a numbers-based approach (which you absolutely should) by weighting the RPI so much, what is the point of having these conference monitors? To see how the boys filled out their uniforms and if they were wearing ties off the bus? Their record and opponents are what they are, regardless of how they “look”. There are plenty of numbers to tell the story.

And trying to figure out if a team made a valiant effort to schedule quality opponents? Again, you play your schedule and the results speak for themselves. Who cares what you tried or didn’t try to do? It’s what the players did on the court that matters, not what the AD did in his office.

OT

From Wilner’s articles after he attended a mock bracketing seminar in Indianapolis:

The 7 key metrics from the “Nitty Gritty”:

1. Rating Percentage Index (RPI) for all games – a rank of 60 or better is
generally needed to weed out the pretenders

2. RPI in non-conference games (NC RPI) – a rank of 100 or better is generally acceptable

3. Record on the road and on neutral courts – over .500 is preferred

4. Strength of schedule (SOS) for all games – a rank of 100 or better is preferred

5. Strength of schedule for all non-conference games (NC SOS) – a rank of 100 or
better is preferred

Cal had a bullet-proof resume up until Thursday night before the overtime meltdown against Utah.

That one black mark on Cal’s resume could put Cal in the FIRST FOUR.

Harold

Hoqw does Cal’s loss to Harvard not count as bad? Harvard may be the best team in the Ivy League, but it’s still the Ivy League…and Cal was playing at home.

OT

@Harold:

Harvard’s RPI rank is 93.

A “bad loss” is generally defined as a loss to a team with an RPI rank of 101 or worse.

1brsfan

When you put the two resumes next to each other it appears to the naked eye that Cal is a safe 11 or 12 seed and St. Mary’s is a safe 12 to a play in 12. I base it on the SOS, NC SOS, wins vs. Top 50 and bad losses.

Cal plays in a tougher conference and there’s nothing St. Mary’s can do about that. However they can affect their SOS and NC SOS by scheduling better games. That would also give them the ability to win more top 50 RPI wins and avoid bad losses.

Trees Forever

I think the #2 team from a conference whose champion is a #1 seed should be a LOCK for the NCAA, especially when your ONLY conference losses were against said team.

Gael Lover

Unfortunately the Gaels will not get in this year.

Papa John

Trees Forever, I’m pretty sure that where you finish in your conference, or what conference you play in, has no relevance for the committee. Having said that, I hope that Saint Mary’s gets into the NCAA tourney, just because I want to see Dellavedova in one more game that matters.

OT

@Trees:

The media members who attended all-expense-paid mock bracketing exercises in Indianapolis all had the following DRILLED into their heads:

1. Conference affiliation DOES NOT MATTER

2. Conference record DOES NOT MATTER, but non-conference results do

3. Conference standing DOES NOT MATTER

The committee rewards schools that schedule tough non-conference games. Iona was rewarded last year, while Drexel was left out.

I would NOT be surprised if the committee were to reward Middle Tennessee this year, at the expense of another bubble team i.e. Virginia, Tennessee, Kentucky, or Saint Mary’s.

mk92

Looks like some good news for Saint Mary’s (and other bubble teams)…LaSalle and Virginia both are in trouble late.