Life Expectancy to Soar--what are the social implications?

There is "no sign" of a ceiling on life expectancy
People are set to live increasingly long lives,
and reaching 100 will soon be "commonplace",
say experts.

They say that although there is no prospect of
immortality, the trend for living increasingly
long lives looks set to continue.

Centenarians - 100-year-olds - will become
unexceptional within the lifetimes of people
alive today, according to Jim Oeppen, from
Cambridge University, UK, and Dr James
Vaupel, from the Max Plank Institute for
Demography in Rostock, Germany.

They said there was no sign there was a
natural limit, as some experts had predicted.

Each time one has been suggested, it has
been exceeded within five years.

Increased life expectancy

The researchers' suggestion that life
expectancies could rise is based on patterns
seen since 1840.

Since then, the highest
average life expectancy
has improved by a
quarter of a year every
year.

If that trend continues,
the researchers say
people in the country
with the highest life
expectancy would live
to an average age of 100 in about six decades.

The researchers wrote in the journal Science:
"This is far from eternity: modest annual
increments in life expectancy will never lead to
immortality.

"It is striking, however, that centenarians may
become commonplace within the lifetimes of
people living today."

Average lifespan around the world is around
double what it was 200 years ago. It is now
around 65 for men and 70 for women.

Japanese women are currently the likeliest to
live long lives, on average reaching 84.6 years
of age.

Japanese men are the second longest male
survivors, reaching an average age of 77.6
years old.

'No ceiling'

The British rank well down the list. Men come
in at 14th in the world table, living to an
average age of 75 while women are in 18th
place, living on average to 79.9.

In France, there is a big difference between
men and women's life expectancy.

Men came 16th in the world table, with an
average lifespan of 74.9, with French women in
fourth place with a life expectancy of 82.4
years.

Mr Oeppen, senior
research associate at
the Cambridge Group
for the History of
Population and Social
Structure, said: "One
of the assumptions is
that life expectancy
will rise a bit and then
reach a ceiling it
cannot go through.

"But people have been
assuming that since
the 1920s and it
hasn't proved to be the case.

"If we were close to the ceiling we might
expect the survival of Japanese women now to
be improving at a slower rate. But the
improvement in Japan is among the fastest in
the world."

He added: "I think there is a ceiling, but we
don't know where it is. We haven't got there
yet."

Mr Oeppen and Dr Vaupel said their predictions
meant even the highest forecast for numbers
of elderly people in the future could be too
low, affecting decisions over pensions, health
care, and other social needs.

Political reaction

Frank Field, Labour MP for Birkenhead and
chairman of the all-party committee on
pensions, welcomed the report.

He called for an independent body to be set up
to examine the need for an increase in the
retirement age.

He said: "If you look at life expectancy in
1948, when the state pension was introduced,
and take that as a reasonable length of time
to receive a pension, you would have a
retirement age of 74 today."

Answers

On the other hand, the latest issue of Scientific American contains
an essay entitled "No Truth to the Fountain of Youth" in which the
authors claim there is absolutely no evidence that the physical aging
process can yet be slowed in any way. Yes, with better medicine
(mostly preventive), and better diets and exercise and the like, we
can postpone death in the sense of increasing average life spans. But
the ceiling is still very real, and has not budged. Nor have we been
able to prolong youth -- the added life expectancy we can get in
theory does NOT postpone loss of bone or muscle mass, reduced
reaction times, deteriorating hearing and vision, reduced skin
elasticity, and the like -- the ravages of age. These happen strictly
on schedule, regardless.

This research was concocted by some of Dumbya's Nazi friends at his
request so that he can raise the minimum age to collect Social
Security to about 85 years. All part of his NWO plan to keep people
slaving away for corporations and paying more taxes so that he can
give it away to his Fascist friends.

Lars, in comment on Flint's observations drawn from Scientific
American, go look up the Greek myth of Tithonus. The poor guy asked
for immortality, but forgot to ask for perpetual youth. Turned out
to be a bad bargain.