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June 24th, 2015: SP-500 EOD Update

4:30 pm EST: The VIX Buy, SPX Sell signal step 2 confirmation was triggered today with the close of the VIX back above the lower BB. A green VIX tomorrow would be the final step 3 confirmation (see chart below).

The primary count is that major [2]-PA-C2 completed at 2130 just above the 88% retrace target of 2127. The major [3] target is at [3]=2.62*[1] = 1964 target. Within wave major [3], minor 1 is likely headed for the 2079 pivot area before a wave minor 2 bounce to 2104 and then a minor 3 of major [3] drop to the 1991 pivot, where mirror 3 = 2.62*minor 1. Shorter term, wave (1) of minor 1 completed at 2119, wave (2) at 2125 and now wave (3) is headed for 2096, where (3)=2.62(1). Ultimately PA-C2 should test the 1926 pivot to 1884 pivot area, which is a 62%/78% retrace of the P5-C1 ending diagonal. The primary count remains valid for major [2] below the P5-C1 high of 2135.

The alternate (blue) count is that the final wav of minor C of major [5]-P5-C1 is underway off the 2072 major [4] low. Within minor C, wave (1) completed at 2104, wave (2) completed at 2089, and wave (3) ended at 2126. Wave (4) should have completed late today at 2109, as it must remain above the wave (1) high of 2104 to remain valid. Assuming wave (4) ended at 2109, then there is wave (5)=(1) target at 2141 and a minor C = 1.62*A target at 2142. Also basis the major [4] low of 2072, the ED maximum is 2074 + 154 = 2226 (as for an ED wave [5] < [3] < [1]). The alternate (blue) remains valid above 2104 and if that fails then the major [4] low of 2072.