2010 Census Reveals "'Average American' is Gone"

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FILED OCTOBER 1, 2009

Dear Client:

American households are more complex than ever before. This is the key finding of a white paper that predicts the 2010 Census will show that "the concept of an 'average American' is gone, probably forever," says demographics expert Peter Francese. "The average American has been replaced by a complex, multidimensional society that defies simplistic labeling,” as reported in an article in Ad Age and elsewhere. The Census will begin releasing data in spring 2011.

Peter said results will likely find that "no household type neatly describes even one-third of households. The iconic American family -- married couple with children -- will account for a mere 22% of households." The most prevalent type of U.S. household? Married couples with no kids, followed closely by single-person households. There will be more "blended families, single-parent families and multigenerational families, as well as multiple families doubling up in one household."

In California, Texas, New Mexico, and Hawaii, white non-Hispanics will be in the minority. And in the nation's 10 largest cities, Peter says, "no racial or ethnic category describes a majority of the population....with the younger population substantially more diverse than the old."

While 80% of people age 65-plus will be white non-Hispanics, just 54% of children under age 18 will be white non-Hispanics, and will account for fewer than half of births by 2015. Hispanics will be both the nation's fastest-growing and largest minority. This is an important demographic for the wine industry to crack.

RECESSION OVER, SAYS LEADING ECONOMISTS, BUT CONFIDENCE LOW

A new survey by the National Association for Business Economics found that over 80% of leading economists believe the recession is over although recovery will be slow due to the lack consumer confidence, reports the Associated Press. They cautioned that unemployment rates and the federal deficit are expected to remain high through next year, although they expect the economy (measured by gross domestic product) to grow 3% in 2010. Forecasters expect the unemployment rate to continue to rise, to 10% in the first quarter of next year and then drop down to 9.5% by the end of 2010. On the bright side, the housing market is recovering and home prices are expected to rise 2% in 2010.

Alcohol watchdog Marin Institute is asking the Obama administration to re-open and investigate what they consider a “hasty approval” of the MillerCoors and Anheuser-Busch InBev mergers last year. They believe there were potential violations under the Sherman Act and point to “undue pressure and illegal contract provisions forced on beer distributors.” Their new report titled Big Beer Duopoly: A Primer for Policymakers and Regulators warns of potential adverse consequences to public health, public policy, and the three-tier system, which Marin actively supports. They criticize the short amount of time in which these two deals were completed – 8 months for MC and 5 months for ABI – and recommend that federal antitrust review criteria for alcohol corporations should be more comprehensive, emphasizing public health and safety over low prices.

FOLEY STRIKES DISTRIBUTION DEAL WITH AUDELSSA WINERY

Foley Family Wines has done it again. They announced today an exclusive agreement to distribute Audelssa Estate Winery’s brands beginning October 1. Audelssa has also brought in Greg Ralston, former managing director of Chateau Montelena Winery, as an advisor to help with the transition. Note this is not a sale but a national distribution deal. Audelssa has experienced rapid growth in the past few years, selling 3,300 cases in 2008; 6,000 cases in 2009 and an expected 8,000 cases in 2010.

WSD BRIEFS:

NEW YORK STATE GRAPE HARVEST is expected to drop 22% from last year to 135,000 tons. This is mainly due to a decline in production in the Chautauqua/Lake Erie Concord grape belt, according to local reports.

DOUBLE CROSS VODKA has entered Massachusetts through its distributor, Horizon Beverage Co., after already having a presence in New York and New Jersey. Distilled in Slovakia and imported by Old Nassau Imports, it retails for approximately $44.99 to $49.99 for a 750 ml bottle.

DRINKS AMERICAS HOLDINGS has partnered with newly formed wine and spirits distributor Golden State Beverage in California.

EDITORS AT TRIPADVISOR COMPILED A LIST OF TOP WINE DESTINATIONS in North America, beginning with Napa and Sonoma on down the line to North Fork, Long Island, New York and Oak Grove, Virginia. To view the complete list, click here.

Until tomorrow, Megan

“To err is human, but to really foul things up requires a computer.”Farmers' Almanac, 1978

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