Solar cell prices continue decline, parity with fossil fuels by 2015

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The Taiwan government’s Ministry of Economic Affairs announced that effective July 1 the maximum subsidy for new installation of photovoltaic (PV) projects would be reduced by 20% from $4580 per kilowatt-hour-peak (KWp) to $3664 per KWp. In addition, all subsidies will be capped at 50% of the total cost of the installation.

The reduction is not really a reduction in capacity, but merely on expense. It follows three consecutive quarters of declining PV prices, which, according to industry sources, have resulted in installation prices declining by up to 20%.

At present, PV is expected to reach price parity with fossil fuels by 2015, meaning we should be seeing tremendous ramps of new PV manufacturing plants (based on silicon) in the coming years as PV is 100% green once manufactured, and solar panels can last for decades without maintenance.

A report was recently published by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration author, Susan Solomon. It states that no matter what happens, Global Warming is Irreversible.

As such, with this solar-based technology so close to price parity with fossil fuels today, why aren’t we already investing heavily into this technology? Why are we investing billions into ethanol, a near equal contributor relative to fossil fuel emissions, and one which raises our food prices dramatically as the fuel comes from corn, and nearly all of our food is touched by corn byproducts (corn starch, corn syrup for sweetener, etc.). Note: In this YouTube link, Richard Branson admits his investment in U.S. ethanol may have been a mistake, as there are vast fields in Africa going unused today which could grow sugar cane, something that can produce 7x more ethanol per acre than corn.

It has been estimated by Solarbuzz.com, a market research company, as recently as March 16, 2009, that it costs an estimated $1M to create a megawatt-peak facility (which means, $1 per watt).

That figure is only the cost of creating the facility. The cost of manufacturing actual products is considerably less, largely due to semiconductors which have discovered new ways to refine silicon. And solar cell grade silicon is not as refined as semiconductor grade silicon, which means it is much cheaper.

I was able to determine that a $2 billion per year investment in solar cell manufacturing would have the entire United States free from all other forms of electricity needs within 50 years, even with relaxed efficiencies and consistent prices. The actual point of parity could come much sooner, sometime around 2030 (just 20 years away).

Solar shows amazing promise. And I personally do not understand why we are not seeing more utilization in light of our green conscience.

Speak Your Mind

Corn ethanol is actually worse than oil – it takes more oil energy equivalent to produce the corn required than we get back in ethanol. It is purely a boondoggle to the agrobusiness lobby.

The reason why is because sparsely populated agricultural states are overrepresented in the US Senate and thus wield disproportionate power, allowing them to extract all sorts of subsidies. The corn ethanol subsidy is specially immoral since it has led to massive increases in food prices worldwide and hunger in the third world, even on our doorsteps in Mexico.