Booker's Lead Narrows at End of New Jersey Senate Race

By

Heather Haddon

Oct. 15, 2013 7:42 p.m. ET

The special race for a U.S. Senate seat in New Jersey that ends Wednesday has tested the electoral appeal of Newark Mayor
Cory Booker
,
a rising figure in the national Democratic Party who has been put on the defensive in a contest with a feisty, tea-party-aligned conservative.

Mr. Booker, a staple of cable TV news shows who has more than 1.4 million Twitter followers, looked ready to roll to victory after he won the Democratic nomination on Aug. 13. A Monmouth University poll of likely voters in August showed him leading his Republican opponent
Steve Lonegan
by 16 percentage points. That lead narrowed in recent weeks and reached its closest point in Monday's Monmouth University poll, in which 52% of likely voters said they would vote for Mr. Booker, compared with 42% for Mr. Lonegan.

Mr. Booker holds a substantial fundraising advantage—with $11.5 million, compared with his opponent's $1.4 million—as well as a big edge in registered voters; there are 732,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans in New Jersey.

Pollsters said Mr. Booker is still likely to win, but Mr. Lonegan, the former mayor of the northern New Jersey town of Bogota, has built small leads among white, male, suburban and independent voters. While largely ceding the state's cities to Mr. Booker, Mr. Lonegan has aggressively courted its vast suburbs.

ENLARGE

U.S. Senate candidate Lonegan, pictured, had trailed Booker in August by 16 points.
Associated Press

Mr. Booker has sought to paint Mr. Lonegan as too extreme to win in a blue state like New Jersey, highlighting the Republican's ties to the tea party and portraying him as willing to let a federal government shutdown continue. Mr. Lonegan, former chief of the New Jersey chapter of tea-party-aligned Americans for Prosperity, has praised House Republicans in the Washington showdown.

Krista Jenkins,
executive director of Fairleigh Dickinson University's PublicMind Poll in New Jersey, said Mr. Booker may have waited too long to attack Mr. Lonegan, who has been a spirited debater and enthusiastic politicker. "Booker seems to have chosen to not acknowledge his opponent until fairly recently, leaving open the narrative to Lonegan who has had more latitude in defining Booker," Ms. Jenkins said.

The two candidates are running to serve the final 15 months in the seat held by Frank Lautenberg, who died in June. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, a Republican, set the unusual Wednesday election for three weeks before his own re-election contest on Nov. 5. The winner of Wednesday's contest would succeed Mr. Christie's interim appointee, Republican Jeff Chiesa, and would have to run again in 2014 to be elected for a full term.

In recent weeks, Mr. Booker has repeatedly called Mr. Lonegan a tea-party extremist who would contribute to gridlock in Washington. "My opponent has no reason to compromise," Mr. Booker said in a recent debate. "This kind of brinkmanship needs to stop in Washington."

Earlier

The tea party was referenced about 11 times during the first senate debate and 22 times in the second one, mostly by Mr. Booker. In fundraising requests, the Democrat has called the race a "tea-party test case."

Mr. Lonegan has received endorsements from prominent conservatives allied with the tea party, including Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, Texas Gov. Rick Perry and Sarah Palin, the former vice presidential candidate.

"It's time government start living in its means," said Mr. Lonegan.

New Jersey isn't necessarily a bellwether state to gauge national sentiment for tea-party-backed candidates. A Rutgers-Eagleton Poll of registered voters there, to be released Wednesday, found 55% had an unfavorable opinion of the tea party and 21% a favorable view.

"The Democrat won 55% of the vote, to 44% for his Republican challenger, Steve Lonegan."-Quote off the WSJ article. Again this is a blue state where a Republican openly affiliated with the Tea Party and outspent 10-1. Not a bad showing for Lonegan considering where he was running and which wing of the Republican Party he was affiliated with. As for VA, it has admittedly gotten bluer with the lobbyists, consultants and gov't workers moving into norther VA but it is still a competitive state. McCauliffe is not any more popular in the state but he has national support from donors across the country and a Libertarian candidate peeling away 12% of the electorate. Right now many polls show 71% of potential voters disapproving of the Republican party's conduct in the past few weeks but those same polls show 61% disapproval of the Democratic Party and 53% disapproval of the President. Not a runaway by any stretch of the imagination and definitely not numbers to be bragging about wherever you fall on the political spectrum.

Booker is admittedly an empty suit - far more flash than fact, and a lot more hat than cattle

However, for the Republicans to beat him, they would have needed to nominate a genuine candidate rather than a blathering remnant of a tired old shoe salesman with the charm of a rotten egg salad sandwich

"Mr. Lonegan has received endorsements from prominent conservatives allied with the tea party, including Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, Texas Gov. Rick Perry and Sarah Palin, the former vice presidential candidate."

One can be forgiven for saying that the publication of these endorsements amounts to the ultimate nail in the coffin for Mr Lonegan. I certainly wish him good luck, he sure needs it.

What I can't quite get over, is that in the case of Bob Menendez (who is a couple years older than myself) did not lead to any disgust that he was having sex in the Dominican Republic (a super-poor country I have visited) with girls younger than my daughters--it was that he was, o my goodness, unjustly accused of PAYING them. I love you, New Jersey.

Artie's stuck in a time warp - it's always 1965 and the Great Society.

That moocher red state like Texas. If you look at the recipients of the free stuff in the red states, it's overwhelming your bros and sistas - the red states like MS, AL and LA have a higher percentage of your moochers bros and sistas than the blue states

Art, the point is, Dems are not helping their constituents by promising to give to them financial support indefinitely which promotes a dependent relationship - voter / candidate. Very few conservative candidate's platform consist of financial support (both sides support SS and Medicare for retirees) in return for their loyalty and vote. Rather, they tout less government and less taxes. But less taxes only applies to those that receive a W-2 or 1099. Which means, a Conservative 'Entitlement State' only applies if you are employed or seeking unemployment (unemployment benefits). The Generational Dependency on government support is ridiculous. I am sure you would agree with this statement.

So far Lonegan's polls are pretty impressive considering he is running in a state where Republicans have a 723,000 shortfall of voters to Democrats and he's being outspent 10-1. The only question I have is why couldn't this election wait 3 weeks?

But New Jersey DID elect a "full-suit" for governor, and the winner will fill a spot in the U.S. Senate held by a collection of characters, ranging from pay-off recipients, cradle-robbers, and nursing home refugees. In other words, today's winner has to better than that.

Oh Bryan, like most Republicans you like putting things off to the last minute. This sentiment is at the heart of problems in Congress and now threatening the U.S economy.

Why is it that Republicans cannot learn from past experience and get more organized...,You already lost two Presidential Elections in a row and will almost certainly lose the next...,you guys need knocking out of your wits for some sunshine..,

So scheduling a special election 3 weeks in advance of a general election has threatened the US economy and will lead to the unwinding of the GOP? How did you answer my question in any way shape or form Freddy?

I figured it could've worked in one of two ways. Either (1) with Christie so far ahead of his challenger in the polls for his re-election it could have had a crossover effect in narrowing Bookers lead or (2) Lonegan's affiliation with the Tea Party movement could have given Christie's challenger a way to try and link Christie to a movement that he wants to distance himself from at the moment.

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