Tuesday, December 15, 2015

Moscow Making a Dangerous Mistake: Not All Salafis Support ISIS, Russian Expert Says

Paul
Goble

Staunton, December 15 – Given that
Vladimir Putin has said that he doesn’t get involved in the distinction between
Sunni and Shiia Muslims, it is perhaps not surprising that many Russian
officials assume that all Salafi Muslims support ISIS and have subjected those
on the territory of the Russian Federation to repressive actions.

But Mikhail Roshchin, a senior specialist
at the Institute of Oriental Studies, points out that “not all Salafis” are for
ISIS and that acting as if they are deprives those opposed to the Islamic State
of allies and even drives some Salafis who had been opposed into its arms (kavpolit.com/articles/daish-22058/).

Moreover, he points out, many
analysts are giving ISIS credit for things it doesn’t deserve. Many areas and
groups that are now counted as ISIS conquests in fact emerged and gained
strength long before the Islamic State made its appearance. That too needs to
be taken into consideration.

“The great strength of ISIS,” he
writes, “was of course in the proclamation of the caliphate,” something that
even Al-Qaeda did not decide to do. Given the importance of that institution to
Sunni Muslims, this has “great importance.” Since the end of the caliphate in
1924, discussions about reviving it have been a constant in Islamic discourse.

But sympathy for that idea is not
the same as support for ISIS. Not only is ISIS losing on the ground in Syria,
but many of its supposed conquests abroad happened long before ISIS made its
appearance, Roshchin says.

“Those groupings which have sworn
allegiance to ISIS outside of Iraq and Syria as a rule are old movements such
as Boko Haram on the territory of Nigeria, Chad and Niger, who have their own
compact territory which they controlled even before the foundation of ISIS,”
the Russian scholar says.

The same thing is true in Libya and
in the Sinai where militants have taken advantage of the Camp David accord’s
limitation on the military presence of Egypt to set up shop, something they
were doing again long before anyone had heard of ISIS. Consequently, giving the
Islamic State credit for what those people are doing is a mistake.

And in large measure, the same thing
is true in the North Caucasus where “a struggle for hearts and minds” is taking
place.“The ‘forest’ movement more or
less has been preserved in the form in which it existed, although with a
definite reduction in the level of activity” given that many of its fighters
have left to join the battle in the Middle East.

To deal with it, Russia needs
counter-propaganda,” but such propaganda must be based on realities and not on
false assumptions.“Many of those who
[went to Iraq or Syria] were disappointed.” And many, including large numbers
of Salafis, were horrified by the cruel policies of ISIS, as shown by the
denunciations of the Islamic State by some Salafi leaders.

Assuming that all Salafis are
supporters of ISIS and attacking their mosques in the North Caucasus as
happened last week in Makhachkala is not only “completely incorrect” but
potentially counterproductive because such attacks may be used by ISIS
supporters to win over Salafis not now on their side.