Wednesday, 4 November 2015

11am update - Yellen discussing rate hikes

Whilst US equities remain moderately choppy, Yellen is facing the (generally) inane questions from members of the US congress. Mr Market is currently considering comments about a possible Dec' FOMC rate hike. The probability of an equity retrace is increasing with each hour. Oil is notably weak on inventories, -1.7%.

sp'60min

VIX'60min

Summary

*VIX price structure is pretty good for the equity bears... still awaiting a clear break.. and then to 18/20... as early as this Friday.. if a straight fall to the 200dma.
--

So... a bit of chop... but with Yellen starting to blabber about possible rate hikes at the Dec' FOMC, the market is cooling again.

I sincerely hope the maniacs at PRINT HQ decide to deliver an early Christmas present to the financials... along with the rest of the economy.

Of course.. some of you see a 25bps rate rise as the start of the end of the world. I merely refer anyone to an economics text book pre-2007.
--

Making good use of the word 'Transitory'

--

Meanwhile, here in London city

Urghh.

Not so great... grey gloom... at 10am EST.. an hour before nightfall.

--
time to cook
-

11.24am.. Something is going on in DIS

5min

A great disturbance in the force...............

11.30am.. I see an option DIS trade... 10,000x of the Nov' 105s and 100s.

10,000 @ $50 cents.. $0.5million + 10,000 @ 25 cent... 0.25 million

So.. its a short term put spread costing around 0.5-0.75 million (hard to know what the actual put purchase price was) with just 12 trading days left on the detonator clock.

Disclaimer: These pages (and especially all charts) are for informational purposes only. Most of the numerical data/calculations 'should' be correct. However, YOU make your own decisions as to if you think any comment or data point/chart is correct or not. All comments posted via Disqus/Google (or any other type) users may/may not be agreed with by yours truly.

I (Permabear Doomster) am not a financial advisor as officially endorsed by any national government, corporation, financial/securities regulatory authority in neither the USA, UK, or any part of the world. None of the posts/comments in these pages are intended as trading/investment advice. They are merely my opinion on where a given market/stock and any other 'instrument, index, etc' may move at any future time.