RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP 20 June 2012

SYRIA. So the West doing it again, intervening in a fight by trying to pick the right side on the foolish assumption that if Assad is wrong the others must be less wrong; this will lead to more involvement because mere arming won’t do the job. It will, as before, wind up giving aid and comfort to the very people it’s fighting elsewhere in the world. Especially as they are strengthening their position in Syria. The triumph of hope over experience. Even such a reflexive supporter of the present US Administration as the NYT can see this. And, somehow, it’s all Putin’s fault. Incredible. The CW excuse is not believable as Ron Paul explains. I rarely agree with Brzezinski but he’s right to call it propaganda. And what you hear about Russia is part of the information “battlespace preparation”. And it’s been a successful distraction campaign: the S-300 fuss covered up the deployment of Patriots and today’s headlines read “Putin opposes West” rather than “Another military adventure to benefit our enemies”.

TRIAL. A protest last year against Putin’s re-appearance led to violence. All my sources agree it was started by a small band of protesters; the police may or may not have over-reacted. (BTW one of the best pieces of evidence that it was pre-planned is Ksenia Sobchak’s live journal entry in which she says she will not be attending because she knows an incident is planned.) The trial of the alleged ringleaders has begun (“Bolotnaya Case”). By the way, contrary to what you hear in the West, Putin’s support rating, according to Levada, while perhaps declining a bit, remains at levels most other politicians can only dream of.

NGO LAW. Putin says it can be improved. He doesn’t mention them, but I hope he means that polling companies like Levada and VTsIOM will be clearly exempted. They’re not NGOs; they’re companies which do occasional work for foreigners. BTW, for those of you who wonder if the US FARA law is active, here’s the evidence. Concerning, oddly enough, John McCain’s foreign policy advisor Randy Scheunemann and Saakashvili’s government. (Hyperlinks for PDF copies). We are indeed all Georgians (or were, see below).

ENERGY. If the US Energy Information Administration is correct that Russia has the world’s largest shale oil resources then, given its known enormous oil and gas reserves, it looks as if Russia Inc will be making money out of energy production for years to come.

CORRUPTION. A couplemore cases have been begun but the reporting has grown quiet of late. Two possibilities: the investigations are proceeding (these things can take a long time) or the investigators have bitten off more than they can chew and digest. We will see.

AT LAST. Medvedev says the Baikal Pulp and Paper Mill will finally be closed down. It has been polluting this pristine area since 1966.

GEORGIA-RUSSIA. Two good steps. Tbilisi was invited to participate on security for the Sochi Olympics and has accepted and the first Georgian wine has finally arrived in Russia and will be followed by much more.