It is time to accept the fact that Brexit may never actually happen

German
Chancellor Angela Merkel and British Prime Minister Theresa May
address a news conference following talks at the Chancellery in
Berlin, Germany July 20, 2016.REUTERS/Stefanie Loos

The more time goes by, the more plausible it becomes that the UK
may never actually leave the European Union.

Leaving the EU is so difficult,
and the consequences are so economically damaging, that it may be
easier for prime minister Theresa May's government to endlessly
delay the process rather than to actually leave.

The EU will not give the UK a deal in which Britain gets
access to the single market but opts out of the "freedom of
movement" requirement that lets EU migrants into the
country. In fact, the EU
cannot give this deal to the UK because it would
represent an existential threat to the EU itself: If one country
gets access to the single market while controlling its own
immigration borders, then every country in the EU will want to do
the same.

Leaving the EU will cause such massive damage to the UK
economy that it might be political suicide for any government to
actually leave despite the fact that a majority of people voted
Leave in the EU Referendum.

Immigration from the EU
isn't that bad anyway.Morgan
Stanley

You can sum up the problem in 10 easy steps:

The Conservative government has a small majority of just 12
seats.

Prime minister Theresa May is pro-Remain.

A majority of MPs are pro-Remain. "Parliament had a clear
pro-Remain bias since over 70% of all MPs and over 50% of
Conservative MPs supported Remain," according to Morgan Stanley.

The government faces a general election in 2020, right after
the UK — in theory — leaves the EU.

One million UK voters live in EU countries. The vast majority
of them will vote against any government that threatens their EU
residency status.

Reduced access to the single market will hurt the economy.
The mere prospect of it is already triggering a recession in the
second half of this year.

Do the Tories really want to go into the 2020 election
defending a policy that hurts the economy and increases
unemployment?

The EU will not offer the UK a "special deal"
featuring full access to the single market but control of UK
borders because such a deal would encourage other nations to
leave. Nationalist movements, and anti-EU sentiment, are on
the rise across Europe.

The EU can withdraw the UK's bank "passport" that gives UK
financial services firms access to the single market. Do the
Tories want to go into 2020 defending a policy that decimates The
City, which (according to Morgan Stanley) pays 11% of the UK's
entire tax base?

On those assumptions, May's government is heavily incentivised to
drag its feet over the Leave negotiations. It would be much
easier for the Tories to be seen to be negotiating an exit,
while not actually exiting, than actually leaving
Europe. Especially when 2020 comes around. (And especially when
there is
a loophole in Article 50 that lets us back in with no
consequences.)

The new government after 2020 will face a similar choice. Unless
that government is an expanded Tory majority dominated by
hardcore eurosceptics, then you should expect Brexit to be pushed
back even further as "crucial" trade negotiations continue ...
indefinitely.