SPIN FACTOR® - The HSX Blog

Whisper Numbers: Cowboys & Aliens and The Smurfs too!

Three new films open this weekend led by the sci-fi/western Cowboys & Aliens [CBALN]. James Bond [DCRAI] and Indiana Jones [HFORD] team up with Iron Man director [JFAVR] to help sell a genre mash-up that has produced only lackluster efforts like Wild Wild West and Jonah Hex. Still, UFOs in the Old West presents an intriguing concept that should appeal to the older male demographic. Raiding 3750 theaters, Cowboys & Aliens could abduct $42 million.

Last weekend,Captain America: The First Avenger [CAPAM] performed as well as its Marvel 2011 cohort Thor. The Norse God declined 47% in its second weekend, so expect the Super Soldier to fare worse in a more competitive environment. A 50% drop-off would put Captain America around $32 million.

The Smurfs [SMURF] is the latest cartoon to get the mix live-action/CGI treatment. Papa Smurf, Smurfette and the rest of the animated gang are chased by Hank Azaria’s [HAZAR] Gargamel to our world and into the life of New Yorker Neil Patrick Harris [NPHAR]. Sony hopes the PG-rated film would entice nostalgic parents to bring their kids. While every one of these family films aspires to be the next Alvin and the Chipmunks, most perform more on the level of the recent Yogi Bear. Smurfing into 3395 theaters, The Smurfs could smurf $22 million.

After its record-setting opening, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2 [HPOT8] also had an unprecedented decline. The final film in the franchise looks to zap another $20 million.

Steve Carell [SCARE], Julianne Moore [JMOOR], Ryan Gosling [RGOSL] and Emma Stone [ESTON] star in the PG-13 rated comedy Crazy, Stupid, Love [CSLOV]. Warner Bros.’ marketing campaign has been unsure about whether to push the film as a broad romantic comedy or as an adult relationship comedy, thus sending mixed signals to moviegoers. The subject matter of divorce will probably skew its audience to older couples. Early reviews are good which should help Crazy, Stupid, Love earn $17 million from 3020 locations.

Friends with Benefits [FWBFT] grossed less than expected in its debut. The young dating crowd should help the romantic comedy holdover to $10 million in its second weekend.