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Is SAP Data Warehouse Hunting?

The German software maker SAP looks poised to follow its major rivals, Microsoft and Oracle, by making a big splash in the tumultuous market for data warehouse technology, according to one analyst.

Patrick Walravens, an analyst at JMP Securities, has issued a series of research notes arguing that SAP will make an offer for Teradata, one of the leaders in the data warehouse market. Mr. Walravens’s latest evidence pointing to such a move stems from the expected departure of a SAP executive who had been running the company’s NetWeaver software line, which includes a data warehouse package.

“Our due diligence suggests that Klaus Kreplin, the head of SAP’s NetWeaver Product and Technology Unit, may be departing SAP in mid-October,” Mr. Walravens wrote in his most recent note. “We believe his departure may increase the likelihood that SAP eventually acquires Teradata or another data warehouse company.”

The speculation is that Mr. Kreplin fought the idea of acquiring Teradata or other data warehouse companies like Netezza, which makes hardware and software, and Greenplum, which concentrates on software. His departure would then signal that SAP has decided to go the acquisition route.

A spokesman for SAP, Saswato Das, declined to discuss rumors about a possible acquisition, although he did confirm that Mr. Kreplin will retire on October 15.

Data warehouse systems have gained increasing attention from some of the largest technology companies, including Oracle, Microsoft and Hewlett-Packard. They are able to gather vast pools of information at high speed. Companies can then sort through the data to make quick decisions about their business, like when to start manufacturing new products or when to cut prices on certain goods.

Big manufacturing shops and retailers like Dell and Wal-Mart have been praised for their use of such technology, as they try to take advantage of swings in the market. But an influx of data warehouse companies, including myriad start-ups, has started to push down the price of the technology and open it up to smaller customers.

Last year Teradata spun out of NCR and started trading as a public company. It has been considered the gold standard in data warehouse technology. H.P.’s chief executive, Mark Hurd, used to run the Teradata division while at NCR before becoming the company’s chief executive.

Last month, H.P. and Oracle disclosed a partnership that has resulted in a server tuned to run Oracle’s database software for data warehouse jobs. And this week, Microsoft announced something called Project Madison, which will see the software maker combine its SQL Server database with technology acquired through the purchase of the data warehouse start-up, DATAllegro.

SAP could use a flashy acquisition to draw attention away from its preliminary third-quarter results, which arrived this week. Software revenue for the period should come in from 740 million to 750 million euros ($1.02 billion to $1.04 billion), for a 4 to 5 percent year-over-year rise. That’s way below the 20 percent growth analysts had been expecting.

“The market developments of the past several weeks have been dramatic and worrying to many businesses,” said Henning Kagermann, the co-chief executive of SAP, in a statement. “These concerns triggered a very sudden and unexpected drop in business activity at the end of the quarter.”