How badly is UKIP hurting Cameron’s Conservatives?

LONDON – The rise of Britain’s newest third party could cost Prime Minister David Cameron and his Tories the U.K. election — as the right was split in Canada before the PC-Alliance merger, or as the left might be split this autumn between the Liberals and NDP.

The anti-immigration, anti-EU U.K. Independence Party (UKIP) has siphoned support from traditional parties — primarily the Conservatives but also Labour. A Guardian analysis late last year — at the height of the upstart party’s popularity — showed that 48 per cent of UKIP supporters came from the Conservative camp and 15 per cent from Labour.

“If UKIP does very well, that hurts the Tories, not so much because UKIP could win many seats but because it could rob Tory support in some ridings and help Labour win some of those seats,” says André Lecours of the University of Ottawa.

Sid Noel of the University of Western Ontario concurs, “Any gains (UKIP) makes will hurt the Conservatives. … By taking even a small percentage of votes away from Conservative candidates in marginal English constituencies it could tip a number of these seats to Labour.” He says the Conservative-UKIP split resembles the old PC-Reform/Alliance split “only superficially,” though, as UKIP’s support is less regionally concentrated than the Reform/Alliance’s was.

This rightward exodus of Conservatives has been mitigated by a more even distribution of newcomers to UKIP — from January to October 2014, 36 per cent of new UKIP supporters came from the Conservatives, 23 per cent from Labour, and 19 per cent from the Liberal Democrats. Despite its overall dip in the polls in recent months, UKIP’s appeal has broadened across the political spectrum, helped in part by its traditionally left-of-centre planks, such as nationalization of utilities and railways.

Nonetheless, the fact remains that without UKIP, a plurality of its support would tilt to the Conservatives. According to polling data posted Tuesday on Electoral Calculus, the Conservatives are positioned to lose 42 of their own seats to Labour next month. These 42 seats, a painful loss in any election, will hurt the Conservatives all the more as their seat projection currently trails Labour’s by a count of 280 to 281, with 325 seats needed for a majority.

The chart below shows the vote count in each of these 42 ridings. These data, too, are from Electoral Calculus.

Now, applying The Guardian’s national data on where UKIP supporters would otherwise vote, here are the same 42 ridings with the UKIP votes redistributed. Forty-eight per cent have been assigned to the Conservatives, 15 per cent to Labour, and 17 per cent to the Lib Dems.

Here, with the numbers redistributed, the Conservatives lead in 27 of the 42 seats. This swing alone would put them within striking distance of a majority with a Lib Dem or DUP coalition.

UKIP Leader Nigel Farage appears well aware of the conundrum he poses for the Tories. Having said he would gladly form a coalition with the Conservatives after May 7, he has encouraged his party’s supporters to vote strategically — i.e. for Conservatives where UKIP candidates are not serious contenders — to avoid handing seats to Labour. “It’s a complex electoral system and people have to use their votes as wisely as they can,” he told The Telegraph last week.