RIGHT TIME Three candidates have lined up to unseat Deval Patrick in the upcoming election: (from left) Charlie Baker (top), a long-time Republican; Christy Mihos, a 2006 independent gubernatorial candidate; and State Treasurer Timothy Cahill, a former Democrat turned independent.

Last summer, the upcoming race that got most Bay State politicos salivating was the run for governor. The staggering economy and a series of missteps — ranging from expensive drapes to patronage appointments — had Governor Deval Patrick looking vulnerable. That prompted serious challengers to jump into the race early, seeming to ensure an autumn full of skirmishes as they jockeyed for pole position.

But that highly anticipated race for governor has been in a holding pattern ever since Ted Kennedy's death this past August. The state's political attention (such as it is) has since focused on his memorial, the selection of a temporary replacement, the Democratic primary in December, and now the final showdown between Martha Coakley and Scott Brown for the seat.

That is expected to change soon after the January 19 special Senate election, when the patient Republican gubernatorial challenger Charlie Baker seems well-poised to finally make a move.

While most folks were looking elsewhere, Baker raised more than $700,000 in December, bringing his total contributions to an impressive $2.3 million since he declared his candidacy in July. His lieutenant-governor selection, State Senator Richard Tisei, pulled in another $300,000.

Baker campaign advisors tell the Phoenix they expect to be able to run a $15 million campaign, counting funds from Baker and Tisei's committees, as well as from the state Republican Party and national sources, such as the Republican Governors Association.

That won't equal the 2006 spending of Republican Kerry Healey — whose total was boosted by nearly $10 million out of her own pocket — but even state Democratic operatives concede that it should be plenty to run an aggressive statewide campaign.

As much as the bottom-line numbers, Baker's finance reports have also set tongues wagging for some of the contributors who previously tended to support Democrats.

The most visible of these is Paul Levy, president and CEO of Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center. After his name appeared as a Baker contributor, Levy posted on progressive blog site Blue Mass Group about his disappointment with Patrick.

Other traditionally Democratic donors who have contributed to Baker include Joel Alvord of Shawmut Capital Partners, Edward Murphy of Mentor Network, and Norman Stein of Boston Medical Center.

These defections shouldn't be a huge surprise, says one Democratic consultant, because Baker is not only considered an ideological moderate, but he has also built up a large network of personal ties, through his work at Harvard Pilgrim, with the Bill Weld administration, and with a variety of boards and commissions.

Even so, the loss of key supporters could signal trouble ahead if Baker's candidacy gains traction, demonstrating that he has a real chance to beat incumbent Patrick.

So far, though, Baker has done little to boost his popularity — or even his meager name recognition.

That's apparent in a new Boston Globe/University of New Hampshire poll, released earlier this week, which showed Baker just as unknown as he was in its last poll, taken six months ago. In the new survey, Baker was rated favorably by 19 percent, and unfavorably by 13 percent — barely changed from the 16 and 14 numbers from before he started campaigning. Two-thirds of the electorate still don't know enough to even have an opinion of him.

Chaos Theory In less than two weeks, when Massachusetts voters elect Martha Coakley to the US Senate — let's not pretend that Republican state senator Scott Brown has any chance of pulling off the monumental upset — they will trigger a massive domino effect that has the state's political class buzzing with anticipation.

The X factor Martha Coakley should be plenty thankful for the holiday weekend. The polls suggest that, if nothing significant changes between now and the December 8 primary, she should handily claim the Democratic nomination for US Senate.

Bay State's top lobbyists Nearly everyone in Massachusetts felt the pinch of the recession in 2009 — even Beacon Hill lobbyists had to tighten their belts.

New and improved Romney Scott Brown's unexpected victory in last month's special US Senate election captured the attention of the country — and particularly of core Republican voters, who huddled eagerly before their TV screens to watch their hero du jour give his acceptance speech. But even in the midst of his moment in the sun, Brown made sure to thank the other handsome, well-coifed man on the stage, Mitt Romney.

The Cultural Caucus's big gamble The recently formed Cultural Caucus, a loose, formal coalition comprising a dozen arts-friendly state legislators, appears poised to christen its political life by inserting itself into what could be the most intense statewide political battle of the spring legislative session: the move to allow casino gambling in Massachusetts.

Murph’s Last Grasp? The ever-restless Stephen Murphy is at it again, running anew for state treasurer — just a few months after voters re-elected him to the Boston City Council.

Tea Party Progressives? When Democrat Peter Smulowitz celebrated his victory in the special-election primary for State Senate earlier this month in the back room of Masala Art restaurant in Needham, no bigwigs from his party were in attendance.

Down ballot drama The race for governor and the scramble to replace retiring Representative Patrick J. Kennedy have obsessed Rhode Island's chattering class. But all the talk has obscured an intriguing set of "down ballot" races for lieutenant governor, attorney general, treasurer, and secretary of state.

Heck of a Guy Scott Brown’s stunning victory in January’s special US Senate election continues to reverberate through Massachusetts politics.

MRS. WARREN GOES TO WASHINGTON | March 21, 2013 Elizabeth Warren was the only senator on the Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions (HELP) Committee, aside from the chair and ranking minority, to show up at last Thursday's hearing on indexing the minimum wage to inflation.

MARCH MADNESS | March 12, 2013 It's no surprise that the coming weekend's Saint Patrick's Day celebrations have become politically charged, given the extraordinary convergence of electoral events visiting South Boston.

LABOR'S LOVE LOST | March 08, 2013 Steve Lynch is winning back much of the union support that left him in 2009.

AFTER MARKEY, GET SET, GO | February 20, 2013 It's a matter of political decorum: when an officeholder is running for higher office, you wait until the election has been won before publicly coveting the resulting vacancy.