This will be the 17th consecutive Kentucky Derby I’ve covered, and for 15 of them I’ve spent mornings on the backside. I’ll try to summarize what I’ve learned this week about each horse, listed by post position with morning line odds.Thursday's Column: Deciphering the Derby#1 – TROJAN NATION (50-1)Has never won a race. Ever. Only three maidens have ever won the Derby and none since 1933. In case you don’t want to do the math, that was 82 years ago. Hence his longshot status. He tends to act up on the track during training and got a horrible post, but his trainer says that’s not as bad as you think because Trojan Nation is a closer and planned on dropping back at the start anyway. At least this way he can save ground on the rail.#2 – SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS (20-1)The Arkansas Derby runner-up is yet another closer who will try and overcome an inside post position. If you like the Thoro-Graph charts, he actually ran a faster figure in Arkansas than the winner Creator.#3 – CREATOR (10-1)Has improved his Beyer speed figure for five consecutive races. Can he make it six? Every race in his life has been at least a mile and he’s hit the board in 7 of 8. One of the many closers in the race who will hope for a hot early pace and then pick off tiring horses at the end, but can young jockey Ricardo Santana Jr. navigate the traffic in only his second Kentucky Derby?#4 – MO TOM (20-1)A little bit of the “wise guy” horse with some decent buzz on the backside. Had very troubled trips in his last two races in Louisiana so his best effort may still be out there. His trainer Tom Amoss told me this is the best 3-year-old he’s ever had. Jockey Corey Lanerie has had a ton of success at Churchill lately, winning leading rider honors at eight straight meets, but this is only his second Derby mount.#5 – GUN RUNNER (10-1)Looked great in winning the Louisiana Derby and has won four of five lifetime starts, including a win at Churchill Downs. But CD was also the site of his worst race, a fourth in the Kentucky Jockey Club. Folks picking him think he’s sitting on a big race, pointing to peak on Saturday. Trainer Steve Asmussen admits Gun Runner will have to take a major step forward to beat favored Nyquist. Jockey Florent Geroux is a Kentucky Derby rookie but has run races with large fields in Europe.#6 – MY MAN SAM (20-1)Had no Derby points entering the Blue Grass Stakes but scored a runner-up finish to qualify for the Derby. Co-owner Sol Kumin also owns 20 percent of contender Exaggerator.#7 – OSCAR NOMINATED (50-1)Has never run on dirt and will likely go off as the longest shot in the field. Owner Ken Ramsey is desperate to win the Derby but thought so little of this horse that he didn’t pay $600 to nominate him for the Triple Crown. When Oscar Nominated shockingly won the Spiral Stakes (on a synthetic surface), Ramsey had to pay $200,000 to supplement him into the field. Ouch. Oscar Nominated has been first or second in his last five races but against far inferior competition and with lackluster speed numbers. Would be a huge upset if he hits the board.#8 – LANI (30-1)Perhaps the most intriguing Derby horse in years. Lani was bred in America but has never raced in this country, running in Japan and Dubai. He’s the only horse in the field who has run a mile and a quarter -- doing it on turf in the first start of his career! He’s also the only entry in the field who has faced older horses. Japanese trainer Mikio Matsunaga has the unorthodox style of exercising his horse in the morning far longer than his American counterparts, doing a variation of interval training: walks into jogs into gallops and then starting over before finally sprinting. Thursday morning Lani was on the track for 30 minutes, unheard of this country! Lani is also known to be very “excited” when he sees female horses, wanting to get his stud career going right away. His father was Tapit and his mother was Heavenly Romance, so I guess his demeanor makes sense. Seriously though, his pedigree is fantastic for the Kentucky Derby distance and if he can stay calm and get a good trip, who knows?#9 – DESTIN (15-1)The winner of the Tampa Bay Derby is coming off an eight-week layoff. Since 1991, eight horses have tried to win the Derby off a break of at least 45 days and none have finished in the money. Destin is also the only horse in the field who has never run at least a mile and 1/8. Since 1991 30 Derby runners have tried that tactic and only one has hit the board, Eight Belles in 2008. (Statistics courtesy Mike Hogan of the Daily Racing Form). If those numbers don’t scare you off, Destin does have excellent breeding and is one of only four horses in the field who have run a 100+ Beyer speed figure. Destin doesn’t have to improve much on his past performances that led to consecutive wins and is my dark horse to hit the board.#10 – WHITMORE (20-1)One of the more consistent horses in the field, always comes with a solid effort despite track conditions or troubled trips. Picks up jockey Victor Espinoza looking for a third straight Derby win. Trainer Ron Moquette had Far Right last year and is back again, hoping to be a regular here on the first Saturday in May. He said on my radio show that he’d go “gangsta” in the winner’s circle if Whitmore pulled off a win.#11 – EXAGGERATOR (8-1)An impressive win the Santa Anita Derby makes him the second choice in the Morning Line. Exaggerator’s 103 Beyer speed figure is the highest of any horse in the race. In the last 24 Derbies, the horse entering with the highest Beyer has won seven. Exaggerator has lost three times to favorite Nyquist, but their last meeting was in mid-February and trainer Keith Desormeaux says his colt has gotten better and more versatile since then. Exaggerator’s brilliant run at Santa Anita was on a sloppy wet track and there are some who wonder if he’ll be able to replicate it on a dry track this Saturday.#12 – TOM’S READY (30-1)One of two horses in the field owned by Tom Benson, who also owns the New Orleans Saints and New Orleans Pelicans (Mo Tom is the other). Saints coach Sean Peyton is coming to the race to cheer them on. Tom’s Ready has nine career races and only one win and his speed figures won’t impress anyone. But he does have trainer Dallas Stewart who seems to have the magic touch in getting long-shot horses to peak when running for roses. Stewart had the runner-up in 2013 and 2014, both at odds of 35-1 or longer.#13 – NYQUIST (3-1)The deserving favorite. The winner of last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile is 7-for-7 lifetime and has never been passed by another horse. He has won on four different tracks and with a variety of styles. He traveled across the country to face Mohaymen in the Florida Derby and blew him away. He has earned more money than any horse entering the Kentucky Derby EVER. So why aren’t people more excited? The main concern is whether he can get the distance. His mother’s background was as a sprinter and his father never won a race longer than a mile. Nyquist’s best speed number was in a 7-furlong sprint and his Beyer figures in races longer than that are about the same as many other horses in the field. Handicappers looking to beat Nyquist think he has already peaked but I disagree. It’s been wild this week to see the lack of buzz over a horse who does nothing but win. Nyquist doesn’t appear to be a SuperHorse like American Pharoah but he doesn’t need to be. He simply has to beat what looks like a weaker-than-normal field.#14 – MOHAYMEN (10-1)The most polarizing horse in the race. How much attention do you pay to his worst performance? At one point he was the unbeaten Derby favorite… until he got smoked by Nyquist in Florida. Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin says you simply throw that race out, that his horse didn’t like the track and got a bad trip. Many handicappers agree, gladly taking 10-1 odds for a horse that has trained brilliantly since arriving at Churchill Downs. Experienced horsemen love the way he looks on the track and he figures to be positioned mid-pack and can win with a variety of pace scenarios. Critics can’t dismiss the Florida race so easily and point out that very few horses win the Derby coming off a fourth place finish in their final prep. Others speculate that Mohaymen is running so fast in his workouts that he may do the same on Saturday and burn himself out. You’ll definitely get value for your wager if you like Mohaymen, but I’m staying away.#15 – OUTWORK (15-1)The Wood Memorial winner is training well and is one of the few speed horses on Saturday, figuring to be out front early along with Danzing Candy and Nyquist. He’s lightly raced with only four career starts and he won the Wood in the slowest time in the history of that race at that length, barely beating a mediocre field. Can you tell I’m not impressed?#16 – SHAGAF (20-1)He was unbeaten heading into the Wood Memorial but hated the sloppy track and finished fifth. But like Mohaymen if you’re willing to throw out his worst race he looks much better. The hard thing is with only four races in his life, there’s so little data to evaluate. Why don’t these horses run more?#17 – MOR SPIRIT (12-1)Trainer Bob Baffert is back with another legitimate contender but he seems surprisingly unenthusiastic about it. In seven career races, Mor Spirit has never finished worse than runner-up and although he was beaten by six lengths in the Santa Anita Derby, jockey Gary Stevens knew he couldn’t win and didn’t use all his horse, keeping him fresh for this race. Plus Mor Spirit has four 90+ Beyer races, tied with Exaggerator for the most in the field. So why isn’t Baffert more excited? Maybe it’s an American Pharoah hangover but Bob’s frequent references to Mor Spirit as “he’s a good horse, just like the rest of them” leave me uninspired. Baffert even said at the Trainer’s Dinner on Tuesday night that he thought a new trainer would be holding the trophy on Saturday. It’s not like him to sandbag so that has me worried. Mor Spirit’s workouts at Churchill have been OK but not stellar, with reports of slow fractions at the finish. I had multiple analysts use the word “grinder” to describe this horse and I’m not sure that’s a compliment. Given his consistency, I think you have to include him in exotics but a win bet may not be needed.#18 – MAJESTO (30-1)Impress your friends by pointing out that the proper pronunciation is Ma-HESS-toe, not Ma-JESS-toe. Whatever you call him, he made this race by finishing as runner-up in the Florida Derby. But in the gallop out after the race, he passed Nyquist. Maybe he’s ready to make a major leap forward here? Of all the longshots (30-1 or worse), I felt he had the most respect on the backside.#19 – BRODY’S CAUSE (12-1)Great breeding for the Bluegrass Stakes champ has local trainer Dale Romans feeling good. This colt should definitely get the mile and a quarter. Romans calls him “not a plodding closer, an accelerating closer”. His speed figures won’t impress anyone but Romans says those stats are becoming increasingly overrated. Brody’s Cause is a multiple grade 1 stakes winner with experience facing large fields. Maybe it’s Dale’s turn to win his hometown race.#20 – DANZING CANDY (15-1)The main speed horse in the race should have no problem hustling at the start to get from the far outside to the lead. The question is how many others go with him and much energy he uses to do it. Candy went wire-to-wire in an impressive win in the San Felipe Stakes but when he tried to do the same at the Santa Anita Derby he faded badly and was beaten by 13 lengths. If you read between the lines, it seems like trainer Cliff Sise Jr. isn’t sure this is the right spot for his horse but he’s following owner’s orders. I’ll pass.I explained my picks in yesterday’s column. Here are my exact wagers:- $10 WPS on Nyquist (#13) = $30- $2 Exacta wheel = $20 top: Exaggerator (#11) & Nyquist (#13) bottom: Creator (#3), Mo Tom (#4), Destin (#9), Exaggerator (#11), Nyquist (#13), Mor Spirit (#17)- $.50 Trifecta box with Creator (#3), Destin (#9), Exaggerator (#11), Nyquist (#13) = $12- $5 Show on Lani (#8) = $5That’s $67 plus a variety of bets on my wedding date and kids’ birthdays will get me to about $85. I go into every Derby expecting to lose it all so any return will be considered profit.Good luck!Follow me on Twitter at @LachTalk

LOUISVILLE, Ky. —

This will be the 17th consecutive Kentucky Derby I’ve covered, and for 15 of them I’ve spent mornings on the backside. I’ll try to summarize what I’ve learned this week about each horse, listed by post position with morning line odds.

#1 – TROJAN NATION (50-1)Has never won a race. Ever. Only three maidens have ever won the Derby and none since 1933. In case you don’t want to do the math, that was 82 years ago. Hence his longshot status. He tends to act up on the track during training and got a horrible post, but his trainer says that’s not as bad as you think because Trojan Nation is a closer and planned on dropping back at the start anyway. At least this way he can save ground on the rail.

#2 – SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS (20-1)The Arkansas Derby runner-up is yet another closer who will try and overcome an inside post position. If you like the Thoro-Graph charts, he actually ran a faster figure in Arkansas than the winner Creator.

#3 – CREATOR (10-1)Has improved his Beyer speed figure for five consecutive races. Can he make it six? Every race in his life has been at least a mile and he’s hit the board in 7 of 8. One of the many closers in the race who will hope for a hot early pace and then pick off tiring horses at the end, but can young jockey Ricardo Santana Jr. navigate the traffic in only his second Kentucky Derby?

#4 – MO TOM (20-1)A little bit of the “wise guy” horse with some decent buzz on the backside. Had very troubled trips in his last two races in Louisiana so his best effort may still be out there. His trainer Tom Amoss told me this is the best 3-year-old he’s ever had. Jockey Corey Lanerie has had a ton of success at Churchill lately, winning leading rider honors at eight straight meets, but this is only his second Derby mount.

#5 – GUN RUNNER (10-1)Looked great in winning the Louisiana Derby and has won four of five lifetime starts, including a win at Churchill Downs. But CD was also the site of his worst race, a fourth in the Kentucky Jockey Club. Folks picking him think he’s sitting on a big race, pointing to peak on Saturday. Trainer Steve Asmussen admits Gun Runner will have to take a major step forward to beat favored Nyquist. Jockey Florent Geroux is a Kentucky Derby rookie but has run races with large fields in Europe.

#7 – OSCAR NOMINATED (50-1)Has never run on dirt and will likely go off as the longest shot in the field. Owner Ken Ramsey is desperate to win the Derby but thought so little of this horse that he didn’t pay $600 to nominate him for the Triple Crown. When Oscar Nominated shockingly won the Spiral Stakes (on a synthetic surface), Ramsey had to pay $200,000 to supplement him into the field. Ouch. Oscar Nominated has been first or second in his last five races but against far inferior competition and with lackluster speed numbers. Would be a huge upset if he hits the board.

#8 – LANI (30-1)Perhaps the most intriguing Derby horse in years. Lani was bred in America but has never raced in this country, running in Japan and Dubai. He’s the only horse in the field who has run a mile and a quarter -- doing it on turf in the first start of his career! He’s also the only entry in the field who has faced older horses. Japanese trainer Mikio Matsunaga has the unorthodox style of exercising his horse in the morning far longer than his American counterparts, doing a variation of interval training: walks into jogs into gallops and then starting over before finally sprinting. Thursday morning Lani was on the track for 30 minutes, unheard of this country! Lani is also known to be very “excited” when he sees female horses, wanting to get his stud career going right away. His father was Tapit and his mother was Heavenly Romance, so I guess his demeanor makes sense. Seriously though, his pedigree is fantastic for the Kentucky Derby distance and if he can stay calm and get a good trip, who knows?

#9 – DESTIN (15-1)The winner of the Tampa Bay Derby is coming off an eight-week layoff. Since 1991, eight horses have tried to win the Derby off a break of at least 45 days and none have finished in the money. Destin is also the only horse in the field who has never run at least a mile and 1/8. Since 1991 30 Derby runners have tried that tactic and only one has hit the board, Eight Belles in 2008. (Statistics courtesy Mike Hogan of the Daily Racing Form). If those numbers don’t scare you off, Destin does have excellent breeding and is one of only four horses in the field who have run a 100+ Beyer speed figure. Destin doesn’t have to improve much on his past performances that led to consecutive wins and is my dark horse to hit the board.

#10 – WHITMORE (20-1)One of the more consistent horses in the field, always comes with a solid effort despite track conditions or troubled trips. Picks up jockey Victor Espinoza looking for a third straight Derby win. Trainer Ron Moquette had Far Right last year and is back again, hoping to be a regular here on the first Saturday in May. He said on my radio show that he’d go “gangsta” in the winner’s circle if Whitmore pulled off a win.

#11 – EXAGGERATOR (8-1)An impressive win the Santa Anita Derby makes him the second choice in the Morning Line. Exaggerator’s 103 Beyer speed figure is the highest of any horse in the race. In the last 24 Derbies, the horse entering with the highest Beyer has won seven. Exaggerator has lost three times to favorite Nyquist, but their last meeting was in mid-February and trainer Keith Desormeaux says his colt has gotten better and more versatile since then. Exaggerator’s brilliant run at Santa Anita was on a sloppy wet track and there are some who wonder if he’ll be able to replicate it on a dry track this Saturday.

#12 – TOM’S READY (30-1)One of two horses in the field owned by Tom Benson, who also owns the New Orleans Saints and New Orleans Pelicans (Mo Tom is the other). Saints coach Sean Peyton is coming to the race to cheer them on. Tom’s Ready has nine career races and only one win and his speed figures won’t impress anyone. But he does have trainer Dallas Stewart who seems to have the magic touch in getting long-shot horses to peak when running for roses. Stewart had the runner-up in 2013 and 2014, both at odds of 35-1 or longer.

#13 – NYQUIST (3-1)The deserving favorite. The winner of last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile is 7-for-7 lifetime and has never been passed by another horse. He has won on four different tracks and with a variety of styles. He traveled across the country to face Mohaymen in the Florida Derby and blew him away. He has earned more money than any horse entering the Kentucky Derby EVER. So why aren’t people more excited? The main concern is whether he can get the distance. His mother’s background was as a sprinter and his father never won a race longer than a mile. Nyquist’s best speed number was in a 7-furlong sprint and his Beyer figures in races longer than that are about the same as many other horses in the field. Handicappers looking to beat Nyquist think he has already peaked but I disagree. It’s been wild this week to see the lack of buzz over a horse who does nothing but win. Nyquist doesn’t appear to be a SuperHorse like American Pharoah but he doesn’t need to be. He simply has to beat what looks like a weaker-than-normal field.

#14 – MOHAYMEN (10-1)The most polarizing horse in the race. How much attention do you pay to his worst performance? At one point he was the unbeaten Derby favorite… until he got smoked by Nyquist in Florida. Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin says you simply throw that race out, that his horse didn’t like the track and got a bad trip. Many handicappers agree, gladly taking 10-1 odds for a horse that has trained brilliantly since arriving at Churchill Downs. Experienced horsemen love the way he looks on the track and he figures to be positioned mid-pack and can win with a variety of pace scenarios. Critics can’t dismiss the Florida race so easily and point out that very few horses win the Derby coming off a fourth place finish in their final prep. Others speculate that Mohaymen is running so fast in his workouts that he may do the same on Saturday and burn himself out. You’ll definitely get value for your wager if you like Mohaymen, but I’m staying away.

#15 – OUTWORK (15-1)The Wood Memorial winner is training well and is one of the few speed horses on Saturday, figuring to be out front early along with Danzing Candy and Nyquist. He’s lightly raced with only four career starts and he won the Wood in the slowest time in the history of that race at that length, barely beating a mediocre field. Can you tell I’m not impressed?

#16 – SHAGAF (20-1)He was unbeaten heading into the Wood Memorial but hated the sloppy track and finished fifth. But like Mohaymen if you’re willing to throw out his worst race he looks much better. The hard thing is with only four races in his life, there’s so little data to evaluate. Why don’t these horses run more?

#17 – MOR SPIRIT (12-1)Trainer Bob Baffert is back with another legitimate contender but he seems surprisingly unenthusiastic about it. In seven career races, Mor Spirit has never finished worse than runner-up and although he was beaten by six lengths in the Santa Anita Derby, jockey Gary Stevens knew he couldn’t win and didn’t use all his horse, keeping him fresh for this race. Plus Mor Spirit has four 90+ Beyer races, tied with Exaggerator for the most in the field. So why isn’t Baffert more excited? Maybe it’s an American Pharoah hangover but Bob’s frequent references to Mor Spirit as “he’s a good horse, just like the rest of them” leave me uninspired. Baffert even said at the Trainer’s Dinner on Tuesday night that he thought a new trainer would be holding the trophy on Saturday. It’s not like him to sandbag so that has me worried. Mor Spirit’s workouts at Churchill have been OK but not stellar, with reports of slow fractions at the finish. I had multiple analysts use the word “grinder” to describe this horse and I’m not sure that’s a compliment. Given his consistency, I think you have to include him in exotics but a win bet may not be needed.

#18 – MAJESTO (30-1)Impress your friends by pointing out that the proper pronunciation is Ma-HESS-toe, not Ma-JESS-toe. Whatever you call him, he made this race by finishing as runner-up in the Florida Derby. But in the gallop out after the race, he passed Nyquist. Maybe he’s ready to make a major leap forward here? Of all the longshots (30-1 or worse), I felt he had the most respect on the backside.

#19 – BRODY’S CAUSE (12-1)Great breeding for the Bluegrass Stakes champ has local trainer Dale Romans feeling good. This colt should definitely get the mile and a quarter. Romans calls him “not a plodding closer, an accelerating closer”. His speed figures won’t impress anyone but Romans says those stats are becoming increasingly overrated. Brody’s Cause is a multiple grade 1 stakes winner with experience facing large fields. Maybe it’s Dale’s turn to win his hometown race.

#20 – DANZING CANDY (15-1)The main speed horse in the race should have no problem hustling at the start to get from the far outside to the lead. The question is how many others go with him and much energy he uses to do it. Candy went wire-to-wire in an impressive win in the San Felipe Stakes but when he tried to do the same at the Santa Anita Derby he faded badly and was beaten by 13 lengths. If you read between the lines, it seems like trainer Cliff Sise Jr. isn’t sure this is the right spot for his horse but he’s following owner’s orders. I’ll pass.