Despite being outspent and hammered by PACs on everything from health care votes to yacht purchases, U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan appears primed to stave off a challenge from Democratic attorney David Shapiro in Florida’s 16th.

The polls have been clear for quite a while. October polls have shown Buchanan with a growing, outside-the-margin lead: St. Pete Polls found the Republican lawmaker up by a touchdownat the start of the month, a far cry from the quixotic internals Shapiro was touting shortly after his primary victory.

Since June, national Democrats and outside groups — or “dark money” groups, according to the Buchanan campaign — such as Floridians for a Fair Shake have dumped millions into Shapiro’s bid to knock off Buchanan, an unprecedented barrage to be sure.

But Buchanan’s district has started to coalesce behind their longtime Congressman as Shapiro’s operation has seemingly capsized, squandering what momentum it managed to build in the wake of yacht-gate.

From his offspring’s off-color comments, to news of the DCCC yanking their TV buys in CD 16 overshadowing his otherwise stellar fundraising haul, the iron’s been unkind to Shapiro — and he’s not blameless.

The tight ship at Buchanan HQ offers a stark contrast to the fourth quarter flop by Team Shapiro.

Unlike Shapiro’s solecism in the speaker race, Buchanan didn’t lean into the yacht attacks nor did the campaign backtrack on his votes for the GOP tax bill, despite its mixed reception among his electorate.

Instead, the campaign pounded the pavement and kept their focus on some of the more bipartisan ventures Buchanan has made during his time in DC, pitching him as an “independent leader” fighting for solutions to combat the opioid epidemicand other woes facing the Sunshine State.

That’s not to say Buchanan didn’t land some body blows — his campaign hammered Shapiro early and often over his investment portfolio including some stocks of big pharma companies, major polluters and gun companies. The incumbent pitched those investments (included in ETFs, to be fair) as flying in the face of Shapiro’s campaign platform, namely his commitments to environmental protection, gun control and a crackdown on opioids.

Peter Schorsch is the President of Extensive Enterprises and is the publisher of some of Florida’s most influential new media websites, including Florida Politics and Sunburn, the morning read of what’s hot in Florida politics. Schorsch is also the publisher of INFLUENCE Magazine. For several years, Peter's blog was ranked by the Washington Post as the best state-based blog in Florida. In addition to his publishing efforts, Peter is a political consultant to several of the state’s largest governmental affairs and public relations firms. Peter lives in St. Petersburg with his wife, Michelle, and their daughter, Ella.

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