As we continue our Oscar coverage here at Next Best Picture, we have another interview with an individual who's name you may not have heard before, but you've certainly heard his work in the film "Baby Driver." Julian Slater is nominated for the BAFTA for Best Sound and is a two-time nominee at the Oscars this year for both Sound Editing and Sound Mixing for his work on Edgar Wright's film. I had the pleasure to talk with Julian about his work on the film, his thoughts on the awards season and more!

The full list of nominations including television can be found here. Our predictions for the Visual Effects Oscar can be found here. So what do you think? Do you think this gives "War For The Planet Of The Apes" the momentum it needs to go on and win the Oscar? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below.

You can follow Matt and hear more of his thoughts on the Oscars and Film on Twitter at @NextBestPicture

With a close awards season nearing an end, there’s a category that doesn’t get talked about too much. Whereas the popular categories get the utmost attention and discourse, the Best Visual Effects category is rather muted but just as exciting in a much more technical scale. The scope of work that goes into the fine, artificial details brings characters and productions to full form. They’re what’s in front of us on screen, always giving life to even the smallest nuances. Imagery is captured and can later be manipulated byways of 3D modeling, animation, and digital mapping. What was once thought impossible in the industry is now groundbreaking territory. The VFX nominations for the 2018 Oscars have the chance to surprise us, but maybe, just maybe, the throne’s already won.

What could possibly top Joi’s ethereal existence in "Blade Runner 2049?" The merge of her holographic being with the body of Mariette’s before an intimate scene is easily one of the film’s most defining moments. When she mimics the motion of hands and peeks in and out of focus through the skin, it becomes a mesmerizing sequence. The intricacy is beautiful, but how does the competition rise against the digital matte paintings used in the environments of "Star Wars: The Last Jedi?" Here we have layer upon layer of epic space elements and vast land all coming together in a huge collaborative effort. It’s easy to single out these two films and weigh in on the prospects among the other nominees, but "War For The Planet Of The Apes" looks to be leading the way into awards night- and rightfully so!

It cannot be stressed just how revolutionary the technology behind this franchise has evolved. Undeniably, its latest film is making visual effect history. The use of motion capture data has been seen before in films like "Avatar," "The Lord of the Rings" trilogy, "Chappie," and "The Polar Express," to name some. The staple use of ‘mo-cap’ in a live set was when Andy Serkis dawned the tight suit for Gollum in "The Lord Of The Rings: The Two Towers." Serkis went on to become a motion performance enthusiast, reprising Gollum for the next film and entering the ‘Ape’ realm as the chimpanzee, Caesar. In similar innovative history, the rotoscoping technique was used in 1938 to create "Snow White And The Seven Dwarfs." This allowed artists to draw over live action frames that were filmed on set to translate it into graceful movements of the characters. In 2017, "War For The Planet Of The Apes" continues to carry the weight of VFX achievement through the performance-capturing art.

With each installment, we’ve seen Caesar grow and become a powerful and exacting leader of the apes. Rage engulfs him and he begins to look damaged. "War For The Planet Of The Apes" breaks down a layer of his morality that can only be seen through precise motion capture. We see moments where his eyes have been adjusted to look more red and his cheeks flushed when he is in a struggling state. The attention to detail amplifies the emotional complexity of the film and gives a great deal of character to Caesar. From concept art to the final shots, the process is completely interactive. WETA Digital is the motion-capturing company behind it all. The advances in the technique allow actors to wear suits as well as motion capturing markers on the face. Cameras and scanners all around the set allow not only their facial recognition to be seen but also the 360-degree body movements. The camera’s movement through the set is also recorded so that digital animators can later bring the forest and mountains to life.

Probably the most striking effects are that of emotion on the face. Keep in mind, the film isn’t ignorant of the structure and nature of the real-life animals. These characters are apes, but we grow to sympathize with them in their world. Chimpanzees, orangutans, and gorillas are fleshed out of concept art models and designed to overlay the actor’s data. The process is then lent to the texture department, where the smallest of details are applied. Hands, feet, and the body’s entirety are carefully animated over the actor’s movements. Everything from the muscle fat to the natural textures and wrinkles of a species’ skin is recognized through the visual effects department. Muscle contractions, skin fat movement, and species dynamic is all handled with close attention. One thing you’ll find so amazing in the film is the way the elements of nature exist on these animals. The flickering of firelight on the skin to the rain dropping at night, and to the snow falling and melting on the fur, it is something to marvel at. We find ourselves blinded by the performance of not only the actors in suits but by the outstanding technology that allows it.

Why is it so different from the other nominees, you ask? Well, because if it were the 1940’s, we would think that somehow, through some wizardry, animals were really acting on the screen before us. If we didn’t know any better, we would not be able to distinguish a difference. It neither alienates the live action actor nor excludes high sentiment. The franchise continues to push the boundaries to make each film’s effects better. The sensors that decorate the cheekbones, smile lines, foreheads, and lips all coincide in the VFX department. The way these CGI characters interact with their surroundings also becomes believable on all levels. The crutch-like pegs the actors hold onto help the VFX crew give their ape a photorealistic form and stance. It gives us the payoff of feeling as immersive and primal as these characters do. Andy Serkis inhabits Caesar once more, better than ever. (Why he wasn’t nominated for Best Actor is a whole other discussion.)

If we’re being honest, it was a no-brainer that it got nominated for the Oscar this year. When "Rise Of The Planet Of The Apes" was released in 2011, its visual effects work was nominated for an Academy Award, as well as the BAFTA (British Academy of Film and Television Arts) award. “Dawn Of The Planet Of The Apes” was met with identical stats in 2014 when it was nominated for both the Academy Award and the BAFTA award in the VFX category, as well. Joe Letteri, Daniel Barrett, Dan Lemmon and Joel Whist are representing the film’s achievement this year (Three of whom have worked on the previous two films). "War For The Planet Of The Apes" seems to have this one in the bag come March 4th. I mean, where else are you going to get truly realistic competition? In a field of top-notch sci-fi effects, what is more, convincing than convincing us that a film about apes is the real heavyweight here? That is the undeniable element at play. Not you, "Kong: Skull Island."

​​I know, I know. I’m not excited about it either. We’ve spent all season long pretending like it wasn’t happening. We convinced ourselves that bad reviews knocked it out of the competition. We said that the Golden Globe win was a fluke. But it’s time we all accepted the hard truth: “This Is Me” is winning Best Original Song at the Oscars this year.

Reception for “The Greatest Showman” was decidedly mixed. Rotten Tomatoes shows the film at a 55%. Film Twitter has had a good time making fun of the film. Still, well over a month after the film came out, there’s no denying its popularity. As of this writing, it’s made over $314 million worldwide, with shocking staying power from week to week. It’s hugely successful despite the mixed critical reception. But if your experience is anything like mine, chances are you know people who are die-hard fans of the film. So many people in my circle have seen the film multiple times in theaters. Even friends of mine who never go to the theater ventured out to see what all the fuss was about - and they loved the movie!

Now, before you start, no, my friends are certainly not Academy Award voters. I understand full well that there’s a difference between general audiences opinions and those of Academy voters. Just because a film has great box office success that doesn’t mean it’s winning Oscars. I get it. But this movie is wildly popular, especially among older audiences and families. There’s no question as to what the most widely known nominated song is this year. And it’s not even close.

The soundtrack to “The Greatest Showman” has topped charts in multiple countries. It spent two weeks at number one on the Billboard Top 200 albums and has remained at number two on the chart since Jan. 20th. It’s the first theatrical soundtrack to hit number one on the list since 2015 - meaning not even “La La Land” did it. It’s remained the number one album on iTunes for weeks, with no sign of slowing down. Even most reviews acknowledged how fun and catchy the songs were, even if they didn’t love the film itself. This soundtrack is a juggernaut. And it's crown jewel? The Oscar-nominated hit “This Is Me”.

The Pasek & Paul (Whose credits include the Oscar-winning "La La Land" & the Tony-winning "Dear Evan Hansen") song was featured in the very first trailer, released all the way back in June 2017. Since then, it’s caught on like wildfire. It’s spent weeks on the Billboard Hot 100. During Super Bowl LII, an inspirational promo for the Winter Olympics featured the song. These ads continued through the Olympics themselves, becoming an anthem for the games. This is a major promotion for the song. Like it or not, this song is everywhere, getting into the head of everyone who hears it.

Again, I know that general audiences don’t vote for the Oscars, but exposure like this is vital. What other song nominated this year is known or loved at this level? Admittedly, this category is tough to predict this year, largely because each of the songs seems equally lacking much attention. “Stand Up For Something,” Common and Diane Warren’s song from “Marshall” certainly isn’t well known. Being Warren’s ninth nomination helps, but it won’t win. Mary J. Blige received one of her two nominations this year for “Mighty River” from “Mudbound." This is a big song for the film, and many could look to reward it here since "Mudbound" likely won’t win elsewhere. Sufjan Stevens’ “Mystery Of Love” from "Call Me By Your Name" is widely considered the “best” song nominated this year for “Call Me By Your Name.” Still, it’s been overshadowed by the two frontrunners: “This Is Me,” and “Remember Me” from “Coco.”

Many believe “Remember Me” is winning the Oscar. It leads the predictions on Gold Derby. It’s been in the lead all season long, but it’s a little hard to quantify why. “Coco” received rave reviews of course, and will quite easily win Best Animated Feature. Still, the song itself is ironically not very memorable due to the multiple versions used throughout the film. It's also not a radio-friendly song like other hit Disney songs were such as "Let It Go" and "How Far I'll Go." It certainly didn’t catch on with the public like “This Is Me.” It seems that it’s remained out front only because the film was more critically acclaimed than “The Greatest Showman.”

There aren’t a lot of precursors to look to for clarity. “This Is Me” won the Golden Globe for Best Song, while “Remember Me” won the Critics’ Choice for Best Song. Since 2000, both awards have matched with the Oscars 7 out of 17 times. So, it’s still technically anyone’s game.

But let’s get real. “This Is Me” is the most popular nominated song since “Let It Go.” Will voters go for a song they barely remember or a song that they keep hearing time and time again? While “Remember Me” is featured in a better film, how can it keep out in front while “This Is Me” gets tons of airplay during the Olympics?

Maybe you hate “The Greatest Showman.” It's understandable considering the film's failure to focus on the characters who feature so prominently in the song "This Is Me" instead choosing to focus the story on the perfectly fine, able and privileged characters that Hugh Jackman and Zac Efron portray. And maybe many Oscar voters hate it too. But they liked the song enough to nominate it. I’m betting that the huge popularity of the film, not to mention the success of the song itself, will propel it to a win. Like it or not, it’s time to accept that “This Is Me” is winning Best Original Song.

So do you agree or disagree with me? Do you think the popularity of "This Is Me" will catapult it to an Oscar win for Best Original Song or is this "Happy" all over again? Let us know your thoughts in the comments section below.

You can follow Daniel and hear more of his thoughts on the Oscars and Film on Twitter at @howatdk

For the full list of winners, including documentary and television, click here. So now that we know the winners, the last stop is BAFTA for the writing categories. What do you think is going to happen there? How does Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri factor into all of this since it was not eligible for the Best Original Screenplay category here at the WGA? What are your predictions for Best Original and Best Adapted Screenplay? Let us know in the comments below.

​You can follow Matt and hear more of his thoughts on the Oscars and Film on Twitter at @NextBestPicture

For Episode 77, myself,Michael Schwartz,Will Mavity,Ryan C. Showers & guest Liam Heffernan all put our minds together to give you our predictions for the 2018 BAFTA Awards. We also discuss the enormous amount of trailers released this week, the sad passing of composer Johann Johannsson and other thoughts on the Oscar race. Be sure also to vote on the 2017 NBP Film Community Awards. Voting ends on February 17th and we will unveil your winners on Episode 78 next week!

With seven nominees, five of which are nominated for the Oscar for Adapted Screenplay, "Call Me By Your Name" still triumphed. It looks locked and loaded to win the rest of the season, including the WGA tomorrow, the BAFTA and then ultimately the Oscar. Good for James Ivory who is seriously overdue for this level of recognition at this point in his life. Does anyone seriously disagree at this point? Let us know in the comments below.

You can follow Matt and hear more of his thoughts on the Oscars and Film on Twitter at @NextBestPicture

​The year is 2003 and it’s movie night. Orville Redenbacher’s Movie Theater Butter Popcorn is waiting to be eaten alongside a drugstore selection of single-serve candies. Sitting out on the family’s coffee table are your evening’s choices: 2001’s Heath Ledger comedy “A Knight’s Tale” or 1999’s Nicole Kidman drama “Eyes Wide Shut”? Those are your options, thanks to Netflix’s DVD mailer service. The online Blockbuster of its time, Netflix and CEO Reed Hastings broke boundaries with its DVD mailer service originating in 1998, followed up with its online streaming services debuting in 2007. Then in 2013, it sent shivers down the spines of all cable television networks with its own “Netflix Originals” programming, beginning with political drama “House of Cards” and followed by female-driven “Orange is The New Black.”

​These shows were critically acclaimed, Emmy award-winning, and the start of an era of “binging” fueled by a generation of instant gratification addicts (Myself included). With beloved Blockbuster bankrupt by 2010 (RIP) and cable quivering, what was left for streaming giant Netflix to take over? The very thing that started it all… film. In 2015, Netflix released its first two original feature-length films; a sequel to Ang Lee’s “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon,” entitled “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon: Sword of Destiny” as well as Idris Elba’s “Beasts of No Nation.” While the former scored a measly 19% on Rotten Tomatoes, the latter proved to be a critical darling, receiving a high 91% along with Golden Globe and BAFTA nominations for Idris Elba in his supporting role. However, it wasn’t beloved enough for the Academy of Motion Picture Sciences.

Currently, Netflix holds one statue for 2016’s documentary short winner “The White Helmets.” The members of the prestigious 90-year-old Oscar have been hard proved to allow the streaming giant in its shiny golden club; films are made to be seen on the big screen, followed by a half-year wait for a DVD release… not instant and stream-able for all with a $10.99 subscription. Netflix is stuck in the middle of a definition ranging from the “end of an art-form” to the “beginning of a revolution” where production giants like Weinstein and Universal no longer hold the key to a film’s theatrical success.

However, 2017 brought along the end of many things— Harvey Weinstein, fidget spinners, and even Netflix’s awards season leprosy with the release of “Mudbound.” A tale of two families entwined by Jim Crow racism and poverty set in post-WWII farmlands, “Mudbound” put the Academy in a tough spot. They’re already actively trying to make up for their lack of diversity from previous years, and “Mudbound,” helmed by female director Dee Rees, had the critical acclaim, with a 96% Rotten Tomatoes score and the NYTimes saying that it “lands in the present with disquieting, illuminating force,” and topical presence to deserve recognition. It did eventually gain traction, receiving four nominations for the upcoming 90th Academy Awards, two of which were the first of its kind. Dee Rees is the first African-American woman to ever be nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay, and Rachel Morrison is the first female to be up for Best Cinematography in Academy history. It’s very impressive. In the eyes of the Academy, however, it was still not impressive enough to meet their standards for a Best Picture nomination.

The stigma against quality streaming content continues, but will 2018 be the end of this? Netflix has plans to release over 80 original movies this year, up from about 50 in 2017. Among those 80 are several strong contenders for a possible Best Picture nomination, if not a win:

​“Come Sunday” (April 13th)Produced by This American Life’s Ira Glass, “Come Sunday” is an American drama based on the true story of pastor Carlton Pearson, who is branded a heretic after claiming that hell doesn’t exist. Starring Academy Award nominee Chiwetel Ejiofor (“12 Years a Slave”), Martin Sheen (“Apocalypse Now”), and Danny Glover (“The Color Purple,” “Angels in the Outfield”) “Come Sunday” has just the right mix of biographical intrigue and respected talent to earn itself a Best Picture nod despite being currently swindled away by critics after its Sundance premiere. “Outlaw King” (November 23rd)A period drama revolving the efforts of Robert the Bruce to reclaim Scotland, “Outlaw King” has a hefty budget and a plot full of grandeur. Directed by David Mackenzie, whose 2016 “Hell or High Water” garnered four Academy Award nominations, including Best Picture, “Outlaw King” will bring to life this 14th-century Scottish epic with help from Chris Pine and Ben Foster. Could Netflix be attempting to repeat Mel Gibson’s Oscar-winning “Braveheart”? It wouldn’t be a surprise; the last time a period drama won Best Picture would be 2013’s “12 Years a Slave,” and before that, 2003’s fantasy epic “The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King.” We’re overdue for a period piece winner.“The Other Side of the Wind” (TBD 2018)I have a very good feeling about this one. Orson Welles, whose stage, radio, and film portfolio remains to this day as some of the most revolutionary work in the 20th century, will soon grace our presence once more with the release of his previously unfinished final film. “The Other Side of the Wind” received a full restoration after Netflix bought the global rights last year, with a slated release date for sometime in 2018. Imagine “The Disaster Artist” but set in the mid-1900s, and you’ve got a general idea of “The Other Side,” which is meant as a satire towards the film industry. Seeing how “Birdman” and “The Artist” have each won Best Picture in 2015 and 2012, respectively, the idea that a refurbished film about the plight of Hollywood starring the late Orson Welles could win Best Picture is anything but far-fetched. “A Stupid and Futile Gesture” (Now Streaming)With the success of satirical biographical film “I, Tonya,” it would be remiss to not include “A Stupid and Futile Gesture” on this list. Based on the National Lampoon magazine, its controversies and subsequent films, “Gesture” is a smart comedy capable of making it to a Best Picture nod (though, realistically, maybe not a win) for its self-deprecation and high brow sense of irony. Directed by three-time Emmy winner David Wain and starring Joel McHale as Chevy Chase, as well as critical favorite Domhnall Gleeson, Annette O’Toole, and Will Forte, don’t count out “A Stupid and Futile Gesture” just yet. Though getting that Best Picture win may seem like an immeasurable feat for a company that recoils at the idea of a full theatrical release for its originals, they have survived heftier odds— Qwikster, anyone? Netflix is sure to break many more boundaries along the way, but here’s to hoping one of those just happens to be that pesky Best Picture statue.

So what do you think? Do you think Netflix's push to be accepted more by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will continue in 2018? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below.

For this week's review, I am joined by a guest: Josh Parham. Together, he and I review Clint Eastwood's newest film "The 15:17 To Paris" starring the real-life heroes from the events depicted in the film.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE FOR A COMEDY FILMTHE DEATH OF STALIN, music by Christopher WillisDOWNSIZING, music by Rolfe KentKNOCK, music by Cyrille AufortPADDINGTON 2, music by Dario MarianelliTHEIR FINEST, music by Rachel Portman

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE FOR AN ANIMATED FILMCAPTAIN UNDERPANTS: THE FIRST EPIC MOVIE, music by Theodore ShapiroCOCO, music by Michael GiacchinoTHE EMOJI MOVIE, music by Patrick DoyleFERDINAND, music by John PowellLOVING VINCENT, music by Clint Mansell

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE FOR A DOCUMENTARYBLUE PLANET II, music by Hans Zimmer, Jacob Shea, and David FlemingBOSTON, music by Jeff BealEARTH: ONE AMAZING DAY, music by Alex HeffesJANE, music by Philip GlassMULLY, music by Benjamin Wallfisch

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE FOR TELEVISIONALIAS GRACE, music by Jeff Danna and Mychael DannaGAME OF THRONES, music by Ramin DjawadiONNA JÔSHU NAOTORA, music by Yôko KannoTHE ORVILLE, music by Bruce Broughton, John Debney, Joel McNeely, and Andrew CotteeTIEMPOS DE GUERRA, music by Federico Jusid

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE FOR A VIDEO GAME OR INTERACTIVE MEDIADEFORMERS, music by Austin WintoryDIVIDE, music by Chris TiltonGET EVEN, music by Olivier DeriviéreRIME, music by David García DíazVALKYRIA: AZURE REVOLUTION, music by Yasunori Mitsuda

BEST NEW RELEASE, RE-RELEASE OR RE-RECORDING OF AN EXISTING SCOREBEN-HUR, music by Miklós Rózsa; The City of Prague Philharmonic Orchestra & Chorus conducted by Nic Raine; album produced by James Fitzpatrick; liner notes by Frank K. De Wald; album art direction by James Fitzpatrick, Gareth Bevan, and Nic Finch (Tadlow)CLOSE ENCOUNTERS OF THE THIRD KIND, music by John Williams; album produced by Mike Matessino; liner notes by Mike Matessino; album art direction by Jim Titus (La-La Land)DAMNATION ALLEY, music by Jerry Goldsmith; album produced by Nick Redman and Mike Matessino; liner notes by Julie Kirgo; album art direction by Kay Marshall (Intrada)DUEL IN THE SUN, music by Dimitri Tiomkin; The City of Prague Philharmonic Orchestra & Chorus conducted by Nic Raine; album produced by James Fitzpatrick; liner notes by Frank K. De Wald; album art direction by Jim Titus (Tadlow/Prometheus)E.T. THE EXTRA-TERRESTRIAL, music by John Williams; album produced by Mike Matessino and Bruce Botnick; liner notes by Mike Matessino; album art direction by Jim Titus (La-La Land)

BEST FILM MUSIC COMPILATION ALBUMCAPTAINS COURAGEOUS: THE FRANZ WAXMAN COLLECTION, music by Franz Waxman; album produced by Douglass Fake; liner notes by Frank K. De Wald; album art direction by Kay Marshall and Joe Sikoryak (Intrada)DEBBIE WISEMAN: LIVE AT THE BARBICAN, music by Debbie Wiseman; The Orchestra of the Guildhall School conducted by Debbie Wiseman; album produced by Debbie Wiseman, Reynold Da Silva, David Stoner, and Pete Compton; liner notes by Debbie Wiseman; album art direction by Stuart Ford (Silva Screen)JOHN WILLIAMS AND STEVEN SPIELBERG: THE ULTIMATE COLLECTION, music by John Williams; album produced by Laura Zsaka and Jamie Richardson; liner notes by Jon Burlingame; album art direction by Amelia Tubb (Sony Classical)THRILLER, music by Jerry Goldsmith; The City of Prague Philharmonic Orchestra conducted by Nic Raine; album produced by James Fitzpatrick and Leigh Phillips; liner notes by Jon Burlingame; album art direction by Matthew Wright and Nic Finch (Tadlow)THE WILD WILD WEST, music by Various Composers; album produced by Jon Burlingame; liner notes by Jon Burlingame; album art direction by Jim Titus (La-La Land)

FILM MUSIC RECORD LABEL OF THE YEARCALDERA RECORDS, Stephan EickeINTRADA RECORDS, Douglass Fake and Roger FeigelsonLA-LA LAND RECORDS, MV Gerhard and Matt VerboysQUARTET RECORDS, José M. BenitezTADLOW MUSIC, James Fitzpatrick

​The fight for Best Picture at the Academy Awards is still widely seen as up in the air. Most believe it’s a four-man race between “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,” “The Shape Of Water,” “Lady Bird,” and “Get Out.” They each have a narrative that can lead them to victory; the greater issue is they each lack a vital component most Best Picture-winning films have. “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” was left off the Best Director lineup on Oscar nomination morning, and the general rule of thumb has been Best Picture and Best Director tend to parallel. “The Shape Of Water” was not included among the Screen Actors Guild Cast Ensemble lineup, which was an early sign last year that “La La Land” wasn’t the unavoidable favorite the Golden Globes sweep and record-setting 14 nominations indicated. And “Get Out” and “Lady Bird” substantially unperformed at the BAFTA awards, both missing Best Film and Best Director nominations, indicative of a larger problem with these critic darlings appeal within the industry.

In addition, Best Original Screenplay is also an outstanding category. Some would argue the film that will claim Best Picture wins on the contingency of also winning the Best Original Screenplay category. Best Original Screenplay contains all of the Best Picture frontrunners, and the film that wins Best Picture usually wins the corresponding screenplay category. The only recent Best Picture-winning film to not follow this rule is “The Artist.” The two outstanding award shows left that will help carve out the inevitable Oscar winners are the Writers Guild Awards and the BAFTA awards. The winners of these two award shows will influence or, at least, guide the direction of the Oscar races in the last phase of the award season.

Here’s how I see potential scenarios playing out:

“Get Out” wins Best Original Screenplay and “The Shape Of Water” wins Best Picture. This is what most analysts would say, based on “Get Out” sweeping the critic's awards for Best Original Screenplay and “The Shape Of Water” winning the Producer’s Guild Award under the preferential ballot.

“Lady Bird” wins the WGA, finally bringing life back to the film’s stalled momentum, and Greta Gerwig goes on to win the Oscar for Best Original Screenplay. This could signal support for “Lady Bird” to win Best Picture at the Oscars, too.

WGA: "Get Out" v. "Lady Bird"

The Best Original Screenplay winner at the WGA will likely come down to the two critical trophies, “Get Out” and “Lady Bird.” Indicative of the Critics Choice Awards and the regional critic's associations and its general mass popularity, one could gather that “Get Out” is the film out in front at this particular guild. I would agree, but as much as its mass audience appeal would work with this institution, I believe the genre bias will poison its chances of winning the Oscar. In fact, if “Get Out” wins the WGA, it is the perfect set-up for “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” to swoop in and take the Oscar, as it is the more type of screenplay the Oscars usually reward. However, if “Lady Bird” happens to squeak by “Get Out” for the WGA, then I think it goes the long haul and becomes the frontrunner to win the Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay, making it more viable for a Best Picture win. However, “The Shape Of Water” could upset both of these indie favorites and bring about a confusing race, or it could clear the way for “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” to victory.

Having won four Golden Globes and three Screen Actors Guild Awards, including both Best Picture awards, Best Actress, and Best Supporting Actor, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” has shown a track record of garnering prizes in a big way, despite “The Shape Of Water” gathering the most nominations at nearly every award show. “The Shape Of Water” got also the most nominations at the BAFTA awards; however, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” overperformed at BAFTA, totaling nine nominations in its favor, including both Best Film and Best British Film. This indicates a strong support for British filmmaker Marin McDonagh, who is already a BAFTA winner for “In Bruges.”

Since “Lady Bird” and “Get Out” were both bruised by their poor showing with BAFTA nominations, it’s clear McDonagh is heading for an easy Best Original Screenplay win at the BAFTA. And also considering its roots in British funding, the fact that its McDonagh’s passion piece, and its strong pallet of nominations at the British Independent Awards and its victories at London Critics Circle Film Awards, I’m calling the BAFTAs to go wild for “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.” It has the strongest case to win Best Film, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, and Best Original Screenplay. “Darkest Hour” will likely win Best British Film. (Perhaps a way to reward both films is to give “The Shape Of Water” Best Film and “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” Best British Film.) If “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” makes this strong late-game showing, it will be a nice way to pave a transition to Oscar night and claim the same American trophies despite its post-SAG backlash. “The Shape Of Water” could also be the BAFTA winner, but it doesn’t have as much going for it with this group of voters than “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.”

So Where Does That Leave Us?

The bottom line is, if “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” wins the BAFTA Original Screenplay award after winning the Golden Globe Best Screenplay award and not being able to compete in WGA, it’s difficult to reasonably argue against it winning the writing award with the Academy on Oscar night. Even if its damaged by the preferential ballot and “The Shape Of Water” pulls out the win for Best Picture along with Best Director, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” looks set to win Best Original Screenplay. That is, unless “Get Out” or “Lady Bird” wins the BAFTA (And, based on their nomination showings, they probably won’t).

If I’m being completely honest, I don’t believe “Get Out" or “Lady Bird” to be as serious of contenders as fans of those films would lead you to believe. Despite how brilliant and original it is, I believe “Get Out” will inevitably suffer from genre bias from older voters within the Academy. “Get Out” not only underperformed with BAFTA nominations, but also the Golden Globes. “Get Out” was not nominated for the Best Screenplay award, and yes, I know there is no direct correlation, but it’s worth mentioning, not since “Milk” has the Best Original Screenplay Oscar winner not been nominated at the Golden Globes. Both the BAFTAs snubs in the major categories and the Golden Globes’ lukewarm reaction to it show something is lacking for “Get Out” on a broad base. But people have faith in this movie and this screenplay, that it will go all the way.

For a while, “Lady Bird” looked poised to be this year’s consensus pick for Best Picture under the preferential ballot, emerging from its theatrical run with better reviews than any movie to be released in years. However, once industry awards took place, “Lady Bird” has failed to show signs of strength in its wings to fly to Oscar victory. It did not win any of the major guilds (Even when the preferential ballot was used!); it couldn’t even win an acting award for either actress at the Screen Actors Guild, which heavily went for “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.”

If you ask anyone who is predicting either “Get Out” or “Lady Bird” to win Best Original Screenplay to justify why they’re predicting it, their answer usually begins or ends with “I think the Academy will use this to reward Jordan Peele/Greta Gerwig.” Peele and Gerwig were breakout filmmakers in 2017, with their writing and directing efforts. Most of the goodwill for their films is due to their efforts into “Get Out” and “Lady Bird.” While this seems like a good argument, since neither film will likely win Best Picture, it’s easy to accept that as a reason for predicting it. But after many years watching the awards race play out, I’m starting to take the position that the Academy strategically voting to “spread the wealth” does not happen. The Hollywood Foreign Press, often concerned with appearances, does this among the studios and networks when they pick their winners. But I don’t believe this is the philosophy of the Academy.

It’s easy to do as people who try to analyze things like awards winners; we try to think how things *should* work out, to tie things up in a nice little bow. But rarely can we summarize things into as pretty of a package as we think in our head. People say, “The Oscars have tried spreading the wealth the past couple years.” That’s not really true, rather there’s been a film with technical gravitas that wins many awards, just not Best Picture. “Gravity,” “Mad Max: Fury Road,” and even “La La Land” all had six or more wins. It’s just how the cards are falling, that the Best Picture winner has been a low-scoring Oscar trophy number in recent years. What I mean, by this: the Academy isn’t going to have a checklist and say “I need to reward Jordan Peele for something,” nor will they say, “I need to reward Greta Gerwig because of the #MeToo movement.” And sorry to burst any bubbles, but the Academy isn’t going to go to the Best Supporting Actress portion of their ballot and say to themselves, “I’ll vote for Laurie Metcalf so ‘Lady Bird’ can win something.” No, not after Allison Janney swept through Critics Choice, Golden Globes, and SAG.

The voters are going to vote for what they like the most. From the evidence presented thus far since the beginning of January, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” and “The Shape Of Water” seem to be those two films, and the former has the most to gain from the remaining award shows left before the Oscars.

​So what do you think? Which of these scenarios do you see playing out? How do you think things will go t BAFTA/WGA? Let us know in the comments below!

You can follow Ryan and hear more of his thoughts on the Oscars and Film on Twitter at @RyanCShowers

For this week's review, I am joined by a guest: Erik Anderson from AwardsWatch.com Together, he and I review what e both think is the frontrunner for this year's Oscar for Best Foreign Language Film, "A Fantastic Woman" starring Daniela Vega.

Last night during the Super Bowl, a ton of new movie trailers were released ranging from Star Wars, to Jurassic World, to another Mission Impossible film. We have them all here for you to check out in case you missed any of them last night.​Click below to see the trailers.