NZ economy lifts on better than expected trade balance data

25 November, 2016

The New Zealand economy has been positive so far today after the recent trade balance data came out and was stronger than expected at -846M (-950M) this was lead in part by stronger than exported exports coming in at 3.90B (3.75B). It's likely that after the recent natural disaster that the New Zealand economy will see some GDP growth as spending picks up sharply in the wake of it all to repair everything over the next few years. It will be interesting to see how the Reserve Bank of New Zealand reacts in the coming months, and if inflation picks up in line with all the spending that is predicted.

So far the NZDUSD on the chart continues to find heavy pressure by the bears as they look to push it lower on the back of USD strength. So far the NZDUSD has managed to find strong support at 0.6994 and the market is continuing to see if it can find itself below the psychological barrier level at 0.70. Further support levels lower are likely to be found at 0.6948 and 0.6888 as the market looks to drift lower. However, if the market were to turn upwards they would find resistance at 0.7030 and 0.7060, but given the current market sentiment which is bearish towards all commodity currencies it seems less likely to happen than the bears clawing their way down further.

The Canadian dollar has also been one of the radar of traders with the recent movements in the oil markets and the likelihood that OPEC may in fact sign a deal in the short term. However with Iran and Iraq not agreed and American oil drillers likely to keep pumping at full capacity, it could be some time off before we actually see a rise in oil, and in turn a rise in oil prices which many have been predicting. For the Canadian dollar this means it's unlikely to fight back against the USD movements that we have been seeing lately.

The USDCAD has been pushing up the charts on the back of the USD strength and the 50 day moving average has so far been acting as dynamic support. The market has seen some brief volatility and consolidation around the major support level of 1.3402 and this has so far held up against any bearish movements. I would anticipate that this area will likely see some further movement before the bulls look to continue on their recent run, especially as oil markets continue to show a lack of general momentum higher.

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