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Virtual think tank for technology planning

TechCast LLC has recently launched www.techcast.org, which offers analyses of critical technological trends in all fields, including transportation and energy. Based on the Delphi forecasting method that pools the best available background information and the collective knowledge of leading experts, TechCast projects when an emerging technology will go mainstream, market potential, frequent distributions of data and a confidence rating concerning the forecast.

Concerning alternative energy, for example, a bulletin authored by George Washington management professor and TechCast CEO William Halal published on Aug. 19 says: “There are preliminary signs that global oil production may be nearing its peak, at a significant time when developing nations are starting to use more oil and concern over environmental impacts is growing. Most agree this signals the end of a long era of carbon fuel dependency… Overall, alternative energy is growing 30% per year, backed by wide public support, and corporate investment is strong. As oil prices continue to rise and the cost of alternatives continues to fall with further technical advances, it seems likely that carbon fuels will no longer be the main energy source in two to three decades. TechCast has completed different studies that converge on 2020 +/- 5 years as the serious beginning of this transition period, when 30% of all global energy is most likely to be derived from alternative sources.”

Access to this new technology forecasting website is “free and unlimited while we get up to speed,” said Halal. There will be an annual subscription fee of $950 per seat beginning in about two to three weeks.