If you don't like Minnesota's weather don't fret, complain or panic. Just wait a few hours - because it'll change. So will the forecast for the next 7 days, a habit many readers find maddening.

Why? Predicting the weather is the scientific equivalent of hitting a moving target. With a slingshot. And one hand tied behind your back.

We rely on global data to "initialize" computer models; that's the fuel that goes into the supercomputer's engine. The closer you get to a specific event in time (a storm, for example) the higher resolution the data going into the NAM, GFS and ECMWF. There are 4 new model runs every day - a slight wobble in storm track or temperatures aloft can shift the forecast. Global data is a puzzle with big pieces missing, and model physics isn't perfect.

Ask anyone who predicts the future; computers only go so far.

No worries today, but a wintry mix slushes up a few roads Monday but freeways stay wet. This week's storm is tracking farther north, pulling enough warm air into Minnesota for midweek rain.

And then we swan-dive off a temperature cliff Thursday: single-digit highs Friday into Sunday. It may be one of the 2 or 3 coldest fronts of winter.

1998: The warmest December day ever in the Twin Cities with 68 degrees. St. Cloud rose to 61.

1985: Parts of central Minnesota received up to a foot of snow. Snowfall totals included 12 inches at Waseca and Milaca, 11.3 at Alexandria, and 11 inches at Fairmont and Long Prairie.

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Ice Making Weather

Thanks to my good friend Matt Bydlon for this picture of a Minnesota lake that is turning hard! There's going to be some good ice making conditions across much of the Midwest as an Arctic air mass breaks loose and moves in by the 2nd half of the week...

Ice Safety

"When is ice safe?

There is no such thing as 100 percent safe ice.

There really is no sure answer. You can't judge the strength of ice just by its appearance, age, thickness, temperature, or whether or not the ice is covered with snow. Strength is based on all these factors -- plus the depth of water under the ice, size of the water body, water chemistry and currents, the distribution of the load on the ice, and local climatic conditions."

At this point, you may have heard of some big changes coming in the weather department. A strong storm system dropping in from Canada will track across the northern Rockies and slide out into the Plains by early week.

Snow Potential

Take a look at the snow potential thru AM Thursday. Note the heavier snow potential from the Rockies into the Upper Midwest. This developing storm will likely change as it moves into the Lower 48 early this week, so keep up to date with the latest forecast if you plan traveling.

Snowfall Potential

According to NOAA, the probability of at least 4" of snow or more is fairly high from the Northern Rockies to the High Plains

Significant Cold

Although the amount of snow in specific locations is a bit uncertain at this point, the cold air is not! Another (even colder) blast of Arctic air will settle south of the international border by the 2nd half of the week. Here's the progression of the Arctic air mass through the week.

Sunday Temps

Other than a chunk of colder air still hanging out over the Great Lakes region, temperatures for Sunday don't look too terribly bad (yet) for much of the nation.

Tuesday Temps

By Tuesday, the center of the storm will over the Midwest. At this point, heavier snow looks to be piling up across the Upper Mississippi Valley near the international border. Note the much colder air mass that's building up on the north and western side of the storm

Saturday Temps

By Saturday, temperatures will have plummeted drastically across much of the Midwest. This will likely be some of the coldest air of the season for a majority the the Midwest/Plains region. The other thing to keep in mind is that there will be snow on the ground in some of these areas, so the cold air won't even moderate that much through the weekend. It'll still be quite bone chilling!

Extended Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the extended temperature forecast suggests well below average temperatures for the western two-thirds of the nation through the early/middle part of December.

Comet ISON Lives?

Outer Space is incredible! It's amazing to think of how much unknown there is out there and how small we are as humans. Take a look at this video from NASA that shows Comet ISON making a close encounter with the sun on Thanksgiving. You can see that ISON actually survived!

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Paul Douglas is a nationally respected meteorologist with 35 years of television and radio experience. A serial entrepreneur, Douglas is Senior Meteorologist and Founder of Media Logic Group. Douglas and a team of meteorologists, engineers and developers provide weather services for various media at Broadcast Weather, high-tech alerting and briefing services for companies via Alerts Broadcaster and weather data, apps and API’s from Aeris Weather. His speaking engagements take him around the Midwest with a message of continuous experimentation and reinvention, no matter what business you’re in. He is the public face of “SAVE”, Suicide Awareness, Voices of Education, based in Bloomington. Send Paul a question.

The month is a little more than half over and we've already picked up over 4" of rain in the metro (airport) but some communities have seen closer to 7-10" of rain in August. It looks and feels more like June out there. Shocking weather news: more T-storms may bubble up later today, but the weekend looks pretty good, especially Sunday. Keep expectations low for Monday's eclipse (not sure the weather will fully cooperate here) but skies clear and temperatures and humidity levels come down for the start of the Minnesota State Fair next Thursday. Man, the summer flew by...

I was concerned about flooding from yesterday's slow-moving storm, and I talked about it in print and on 'CCO Radio. What caught me off-guard, as well as nearly every other meteorologist, was the ferocity of the T-storms that pushed northward late in the day, spinning up a series of tornadoes and some extreme 2-4" rains. Flooding will remain a problem today, especially central Minnesota, but a pretty nice weekend is shaping up. We're due...

I hope you were able to sneak outside yesterday and enjoy a few hours of comfortable sunshine, because more rain sweeps back into Minnesota today and tonight, accented by thunderclaps at times. An inch or two of water may fall on your yard before skies brighten up Thursday - before the next round of T-storms arrive Friday. The weekend looks better, but Monday's eclipse-weather-forecast is an enigma wrapped in a riddle. Don't get your hopes too high...

This week brings a streak of 70s, but 80s should be the rule next week, and weather for the State Fair looks sticky, with a few days near 90F. Speaking of warmth next weekend will be more lake-friendly. An isolated T-shower Saturday gives way to mid-80s on Sunday; the nicer day to fish, golf, bike - or loiter on the deck. Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson

Hope you enjoyed the nice weather on Saturday, as the second half of the weekend looks unsettled with storms moving in (especially during the afternoon). More rain looks likely later this week - how much could fall? Click for details! - D.J. Kayser