THE CLIMATE KELPIE BLOG: What’s predicted in April?

Posted by BCG on 2nd April 2020

Both the El Nino – Southern
Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Australia’s main climate
drivers, remain neutral and are forecast to stay that way throughout winter. However,
the ocean temperatures north west of Australia are “Warmer than Average” which is
likely to result in north-west cloud bands bringing tropical rainfall across central
and southern Australia.

The outlook therefore for April to June is for “Above Average” rainfall to be likely for Western Australia and across parts of southern Australia. Both minimum and maximum temperatures also likely to be “Above Average” particularly in the tropical regions and eastern states. For the southern cropping regions, the timing of the ‘Autumn Break’ has been forecast to occur close to it’s average time in most locations.

Rainfall Roundup

“Above Average” and “Very Much Above Average” rainfall was recorded from
the north west of Western Australia through central Australia and down into the
south eastern states (Fig. 1). This was largely due to ex tropical cyclone Esther
bringing heavy rainfall to northern and eastern Australia in early March. This
rain reached some of the drought affected areas that missed out on the rains in
February, most notably western Queensland and western New South Wales (Fig.1).
However, more rain is still required in many drought affected regions (Fig. 2).

Figure 1. Rainfall deciles for March 2020. Figure 2. Rainfall deciles for January to March 2020.

Rainfall Forecast

The BoM’s ACCESS model suggests that
April is likely to deliver “Above Average” rainfall for the western half of
Australia and parts of the southeast. Areas of the Queensland east coast
however are likely to receive “Below Average” rainfall (Fig. 3).

For the three-month forecast, April to June,
rainfall is likely to be “Above Average” for much of southern and western
Australia but the Northern Cape York Peninsula in Queensland is likely to
experience “Below Average” rainfall (Fig. 3). Note that at this time of year
accuracy for the three-month forecast is moderate except for areas in the south
east of Australia and along the east coast where accuracy is low (Fig. 3).

Figure 3. Australian outlook for April to Jun 2020.

Temperature Roundup

In March, maximum temperatures in parts of northern Australia have been
“Above Average” whereas in the south, particularly New South Wales, maximum
temperatures have been “Below Average” (Fig. 4).

Minimum temperatures on the other hand have been “Average” in the eastern states and “Above Average” in Western Australia except for a little area in northern Western Australia which experienced “Below Average” temperatures for the month of March (Fig. 5).

The BoM’s ACCESS model forecast suggests
that over the next three months maximum temperatures are likely to be “Above
Average” across northern and eastern Australia but “Below Average” in parts of
southern Western Australia (Fig. 6). Minimum temperatures are likely to be
“Above Average” across Australia for the next three months (Fig. 7). At this
time of year accuracy for the three-month maximum temperature forecast is
moderate to high and minimum temperatures, accuracy is moderate to high for
Western Australia, the Northern Territory and parts of Queensland but low in
south eastern Australia at this time of year.

Figure 6. April to June 2020 maximum temperature outlook.Figure 7. April to June 2020 minimum temperature outlook.

Climate and Water Outlook Videos

The Bureau of
Meteorology releases regular outlook videos, covering all this information.
Watch the most recent video below.