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OECD Economics Department Working Papers

Working papers from the Economics Department of the OECD that cover the full range of the Department’s work including the economic situation, policy analysis and projections; fiscal policy, public expenditure and taxation; and structural issues including ageing, growth and productivity, migration, environment, human capital, housing, trade and investment, labour markets, regulatory reform, competition, health, and other issues.

The views expressed in these papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect those of the OECD or of the governments of its member countries.

Assessing the Robustness of Demographic Projections in OECD Countries

This paper aims at assessing the robustness of demographic projections to different assumptions on mortality, fertility and migration. It builds on a small-scale simulation model for 23 OECD countries, which reproduces closely national projections under similar demographic assumptions. Up to 2020, projections are relatively robust to alternative hypothesis. However, uncertainty about future longevity gains and fertility rates account for a large range of results for dependency ratios by 2050. Eventually, a long lasting surge in fertility may not be enough to fully offset the impact on dependency ratio of increases in longevity in line with past trends (i.e., around two years every decade).