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Global macro overview for 03/05/2018

Although not all data published on Wednesday regarding the economic condition of the European Union countries surprised positively, green digits clearly dominated on the stock exchanges in the Old Continent.

The Wednesday's rich macroeconomic readings began in Europe since the PMI publication for the Swedish industry. The mood deteriorated, as the indicator dropped from 55.9 points to 54.5 points. Later weaker PMI readings were also recorded by Hungary (down from 56.6 points to 53.5 points), Spain (down from 54.8 points to 54.4 points), Czech Republic (down from 57.3 points to 57, 2 points), Italy (down from 55.1 points to 53.5 points), Germany (down from 58.2 points to 58.1 points) and the entire Eurozone (down from 56.6 points to 56, 2 points). On the other hand, only in the case of Hungary and Italy, the reading was clearly lower than expected. Germany or Spain have shot into expectations, and the Czech Republic has even beaten them. In addition, there were also positive surprises: apart from Poland, France was particularly noteworthy, with PMI rising from 53.7 points. to 53.8 points, despite a consensus forecasting a decline.

On Wednesday, the global traders also got to know other readings from Eurozone. The unemployment rate remained stable at 8.5% in March, which was in line with expectations, while GDP according to preliminary estimates increased by 2.5% in the first quarter. Here, however, analysts expected an increase of 2.6%, the previous reading was 2.8%.

In conclusion, there was a mixed bag of macroeconomic data, but in general, there is not much to worry yet. Some countries surprised to the downside, some to the upside, but no major negative developing has been spotted yet.

Let's now take a look at the DAX technical picture at the H4 time frame. After the data were published and digested, the market might now be on its way to the 61% Fibo retracements of the previous swing down which is at the level of 12,882, just above the important technical resistance at the level of 12,742. Nevertheless, the market conditions look overbought and there is a clear bearish divergence between the price and the momentum oscillators, so the level of 12,882 will be a very interesting place to keep an eye on.