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Examining the NCAA Tournament picture and bubble prospects two days until Selection Sunday

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St. John's forward Orlando Sanchez is the portrait of selection rejection on Thursday afternoon, following the Red Storm's defeat in the Big East quarterfinals and likely eliminating them for the NCAA Tournament.
(Brad Penner/USA Today Sports)

NEW YORK — In golf, Saturday is always considered Moving Day. Where as half of the field has been sent home after the cut, players within shouting distance of the top of the leaderboard try to make their move in hopes of positioning themselves for Sunday afternoon's final round.

Thursday was Moving Day around college basketball.

As the major conferences began their tournaments in full force, almost every team was in action — which meant if you were on the bubble, it was make a statement to play on or head home and wait for the NIT. That was the case in the Big East, where St. John's saw its hopes dashed; the SEC, where Arkansas laid an egg against bottom-feeder South Carolina; and in the Pac-12, where California lost a game it needed to Colorado — one the Buffaloes used to solidify their placement in the field.

Now comes the serious part: With most tournaments entering their semifinal or quarterfinal rounds, which surviving bubble teams — or those not even on the radar (hello, Seton Hall) — will advance and have teams at the bottom of the field sweating on Sunday evening.

Get ready, it's Moving Day - Part II on Friday.

With Championship Week officially underway, Star-Ledger college basketball writer Brendan Prunty is breaking down all of the possible scenarios for the NCAA Tournament bubble picture.

BIG APPLE BOUND
Right now, we're projecting Villanova as the top seed in the East Regional in New York City where The Star-Ledger will be on March 28 and 30 at Madison Square Garden. But who will join them? Here are our top four seeds for the regional as of today:

Next Four Out - In need of wins and a lot of help
Missouri (SEC: 22-10, 10-9)
N.C. State (ACC: 20-12, 10-9)
Georgia (SEC: 18-12, 12-6)
LSU (SEC: 19-12, 10-9)

BIG EAST BUBBLE PICTUREXavier (21-11, 11-8)RPI: 46; KenPom: 42; Sagarin: 41SOS: 26; Non-Con SOS: 79Good RPI Wins: Creighton (8), vs. Cincinnati (15), Tennessee (44)Bad RPI Losses: Seton Hall (126), at Seton Hall (126), vs. Southern Cal (172)
It looked iffy there for a minute late in the quarterfinal game against Marquette, but the Musketeers pulled out the win and appear to have locked up their place in the NCAA Tournament. They had the best odds coming into the week of all the bubble teams and once Georgetown lost on the opening night, those only increased. With three key wins (and the chance to collect one more in the semifinals), Xavier will see its name on Selection Sunday in the field.

Providence (21-11, 11-8)RPI: 51; KenPom: 52; Sagarin: 50SOS: 64; Non-Con SOS: 191Good RPI Wins: Creighton (8), Xavier (46)Bad RPI Losses: Seton Hall (126)
The rumblings around the Providence camp on Thursday was that the Friars feel they need to win the Big East Tournament in order to get a bid. Obviously that's the case for everybody, but in Providence's instance it shows that there is some doubt about their resume. The Friars avoided a huge collapse late in their win over St. John's to advance to the Big East semfinals for the first time since 1997. But that comes with a good-bad scenario. The good: Obviously, they are still playing. The bad: Seton Hall knocked out Villanova, which could've given Providence a chance to get a signature win and not need to win the whole thing. Suddenly a win in the semifinals really nets Providence nothing. So yes, it appears they will just have to cut out the middleman and win the title.

St. John's (20-12, 10-9)RPI: 66; KenPom: 37; Sagarin: 48SOS: 48; Non-Con SOS: 128Good RPI Wins: Creighton (8)Bad RPI Losses: vs. Penn State (113), at DePaul (152)
It's a good thing that they don't let active head coaches be on the Selection Committee. Every one of them thinks every team from their conference should get in. Exhibit A on Thursday was Providence's Ed Cooley campaigning for the Red Storm — who his team had just beat. Cooley said St. John's is "clearly a NCAA team." Sorry Ed, but they are not. At least not anymore. Not after the Johnnies lost what was essentially an elimination game. With no depth in the wins of note category and too many losses, we'll see St. John's in the NIT.