Earth is facing the prospect of a ‘mini ice age’ this century, with our sun’s activity projected to fall 60 percent in the 2030s, British astrophysicists say, based on the results of new research that they claim allows exact predictions of solar cycles.

Our planet is just 15 years from a new ‘mini ice age’ that could
cause extremely cold winters characterized by the freezing of
normally ice-free rivers as well as by year-round snow fields in
areas that have never witnessed such climate conditions before, a
group of astrophysicists claim.

The scientists could draw such a conclusion based on a new model
of the sun’s activity that reportedly enables the researchers to
make “extremely accurate predictions” of changes in
solar activity.

Although, the fact that the sun’s activity varies within a 10-12
year long cycles was first discovered almost two centuries ago,
in 1843, all the previously existing explanatory models failed to
fully explain the fluctuations with each cycle as well as between
the cycles.

Until now, the astrophysicists thought that the variations of the
solar activity depended on the dynamo caused by convecting fluid
deep inside the sun.

The latest study conducted by a research team from Northumbria
University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK, and led by Professor
Valentina Zharkova demonstrated that the variations in the Sun’s
activity are caused by two dynamo processes – one deep in the
convection zone of the sun and one near its surface.

The research team analyzed three solar activity cycles that cover
the period from 1976 to 2008 studying magnetic field activity of
the sun during this time by using a technique called principal
component analysis of the magnetic field observations from the
Wilcox Solar Observatory in California.

The scientists discovered magnetic waves in two different layers
of the Solar interior that “fluctuate between the northern
and southern hemispheres of the Sun.”

“We found magnetic wave components appearing in pairs,
originating in two different layers in the Sun’s interior. They
both have a frequency of approximately 11 years, although this
frequency is slightly different, and they are offset in
time,” said Professor Zharkova.

The model demonstrates that solar activity will fall by 60
percent by 2030 as the magnetic waves inside the Sun will become
increasingly more desynchronized during the next two cycles,
especially during cycle 26, which covers the decade between 2030
and 2040.

“In cycle 26, the two waves exactly mirror each other –
peaking at the same time but in opposite hemispheres of the Sun.
Their interaction will be disruptive, or they will nearly cancel
each other,” Professor Zharkova said.

“Effectively, when the waves are approximately in phase, they
can show strong interaction, or resonance, and we have strong
solar activity. When they are out of phase, we have solar
minimums. When there is full phase separation, we have the
conditions last seen during the Maunder minimum, 370 years
ago,” she added.

The Maunder minimum is a name of a period between 1645 and 1715
characterized by prolonged low solar activity as well as by
extremely cold winters in Europe and North America as it also
correlates with a climatic period between 1550 and 1850 called
the ‘Little Ice Age.’