ACC - Big 10 Challenge Preview

Jim Johnson

11/30/2003

The Courtmaster breaks down the upcoming interconference contests

New Page 2

Hear
ye, hear ye! Court is back in session, and it's time to rule on the upcoming
ACC-Big 10 Challenge, that annual Clash of the Titans to claim possession of the
cherished Commissioners' Trophy. Okay, it's actually a made-for-TV event to
generate ratings for ESPN and line everybody's pockets (unfortunately, not mine)
with more money. Either way, it's still a lot of fun to see these teams
compete. Here is my game-by-game analysis.

Tempo
will be the key to this game. Northwestern Coach Bill Carmody brought his
"Princeton offense" with him to Evanston when he left the Ivy League school and
will want his team to set a very methodical pace. Florida State Coach Leonard
Hamilton, on the other hand, will want his defense to force a faster tempo.
This would take advantage of the Seminoles' huge edges in athleticism and depth
and allow star Tim Pickett to work his magic in the open court. The Wildcats
will need a big game from wing Jitim Young, and point guard T. J. Parker will
need to be very efficient running the half-court offense.

This
game appears to have been set up as the preliminary game of the Challenge
between two perennial doormats of their respective conferences. Unfortunately
for Northwestern, Florida State is rising off the mat this season and should
control this contest. PICK: Florida State.

Indiana brings the Bracey Wright show into Winston-Salem to face the Deacons'
ensemble production. So far, the Hoosiers have been primarily a perimeter
shooting team that has received little contribution from it's inside players.
Wright is the only Indiana player scoring in double figures. Wake has four
players averaging over 12 points per game, and Eric Williams and Vytas Danelius
are waiting to pound the Hoosiers inside.

Wake
Forest is averaging over twice as many assists as Indiana, and this balanced
attack along with likely domination of the boards should lead the Deacons to
victory, possibly a big one. PICK: Wake Forest.

This
should be a very competitive game, matching NC State's experience (two senior
and two junior starters) versus Michigan's
youth (one freshman and three sophomore starters) and home crowd. Julius Hodge
does it all for State, leading the team in scoring, rebounding, and assists.
Scooter Sherrill has helped shoulder the scoring load for the Wolfpack.
Sophomores Lester Abram and Daniel Horton have led the Wolverines' attack, which
features four scorers averaging double figures. They also have big man J. C.
Mathis, a transfer from Virginia,
coming off the bench along with freshman Dion Harris to provide a spark.

The
game will probably be decided by how well NC State handles Michigan's defensive
pressure. This will be a good test for the Wolfpack, since they are likely to
see that defensive strategy often this season. If State can get past it and set
up their offense, they are in good shape. However, I think the Wolverines will
be able to disrupt their offensive flow and withstand the Wolfpack's own
pressure well enough to pull out a win at home. PICK: Michigan.

This
game features the best individual matchup of the Challenge; sophomore point
guards Dee Brown of Illinois and Raymond Felton of North Carolina squaring off.
Both players have explosive wings to dish the ball to; Deron Williams for
Illinois and Rashad McCants for North Carolina. Each team also has a strong
presence inside; James Augustine for Illinois and Sean May for North Carolina.
Both teams also have new coaches; Bruce Weber at Illinois and Roy Williams at
North Carolina.

So,
how do I separate these teams? Illinois has a deeper bench, but it is Carolina
that will look to force the tempo. Also, as gifted as the Fighting Illini stars
are, I give the Tar Heels slight advantages at all three key positions. That,
plus playing in front of a partisan crowd, should enable Carolina to win a close
one. PICK: North Carolina.

These
teams have split two meetings in the last three seasons, but neither team will
resemble the ones that played in those contests. The Badgers have transformed
from a half-court team to an athletic group that can play end-to-end, while the
Terps no longer have the low post presence that was the focus of their offense.
Wisconsin, led by senior Freddie Owens and junior Devin Harris, have a huge
advantage in experience over Maryland, which starts four sophomores and a
senior.

The
key to this game will be the Terps' ability to force turnovers and score in
transition. So far this season, Maryland's offense has been fueled by its
defense because the half-court game is still a work in progress. Wisconsin,
however, was second in the nation in fewest turnovers committed last season
(10.4), and is on an even better pace this year. I see the Badgers' veterans
taking care of the ball and picking up a nice road victory. PICK: Wisconsin.

A
week ago, I looked at this game a lot differently than I do now. Georgia Tech
has exploded onto the national scene with it's dominating wins over No. 1
Connecticut and Texas Tech en route to winning the Preseason NIT Championship.
The Jackets, led by B. J. Elder and Isma'il Muhammad, have been relentless at
both ends of the court. They have not relied on three-point shooting to score,
aggressively challenging defenses by driving the lane and attacking the hoop.

Transfers Tony Stockman (from Clemson) and J. J. Sullinger lead the Buckeyes'
perimeter-based attack, and Terence Dials (6-9, 260 pounds) gives Ohio State the
inside presence Tech lacks. However, the Buckeyes, unlike the Jackets, have
staggered out of the gate. I see Tech's momentum and aggressiveness carrying
them to a win. PICK: Georgia Tech.

Purdue is a classic example of the old saying that "they do grow ‘em big in the
Midwest." Nine players on the Boilermaker roster stand over 6-7, and six of
them weigh more than 230 pounds. Clemson is a big team, but Purdue is BIG. On
top of that, the Boilermakers showed in their upset of Duke in Alaska that their
backcourt of Kenneth Lowe and David Teague must be reckoned with. Those two
badly outplayed Duke's much more heralded duo of Chris Duhon and J. J. Redick.

Clemson is off to a nice start, but they struggled in wins over High Point and
Wofford. The Tigers are receiving good contributions from their front line of
Sherrod Ford, Chris Hobbs, and Olu Babalola, but they don't have the firepower
or strength to match up with Purdue, especially on the road. PICK: Purdue

Michigan State has not always looked like a Top-Five team in the early going
this season, but Duke has played far below its consensus No. 2 ranking. The
Spartans lost a tough game at Kansas
and have received solid play from big man Paul Davis and guards Chris Hill and
Maurice Ager. Tom Izzo has also been able to go deep into his bench, with nine
players averaging at least ten minutes per game.

Duke's offense has functioned like a car in need of a tune up; you know how it
performs but you just need to clean some gunk out of it. The Blue Devils'
backcourt has been particularly gunked up, with sharpshooter J. J. Redick and
point guard Chris Duhon both making less than 40 percent of their shots.
Fortunately for Coach K, freshman Luol Deng has lived up to his pre-season
billing and Shelden Williams has been very strong down low. Duke will
eventually be fine, but the Breslin Center is not the place to take a misfiring
squad. PICK: Michigan State

Minnesota freshman Kris Humphries, who signed with the Golden Gophers after
being released from his original Letter of Intent with Duke, has been
spectacular so far. Adam Boone, a transfer from North Carolina,
has played a solid floor game as Minnesota's starting point guard. Other than a
32-point explosion from guard Ben Johnson, contributions from the rest of Coach
Don Monson's roster have been minimal. The Gophers have struggled in beating
lesser opponents for their two wins this season.

Virginia has their own emerging freshman star in Gary Forbes and continue to
receive steady play from senior guard Todd Billet. The Cavaliers have not been
overwhelming against lower tier opponents themselves, but they have played
better offensively than Minnesota and have the home court advantage here.
PICK: Virginia

There
you have it! In summary, I predict the ACC will win the Commissioners' Trophy
by 5-4 over the Big 10. The ACC has won five games in all four of the previous
events. Does it mean anything? No, not really. The competition has been too
close to call the ACC clearly superior to the Big 10. Are my picks reliably
accurate? No, not really, but hopefully you've enjoyed reading them and learned
something about the teams.

Please post your feedback on the message board or send me e-mail at
thecourtmaster@aol.com. I'll be back later this week to look at what
happened and why.