Mexican Death Toll 57 From Manuel and Ingrid; 95L Likely to Bring More Rain

Tropical Storm Manuel has regenerated into a strong tropical storm just west of Mexico's Baja Peninsula this Wednesday morning, and the destructive storm promises to bring even more misery to a Mexican nation already reeling from the combined one-two punch of Manuel on its Pacific coast and Hurricane Ingrid on the Atlantic coast earlier this week. The two storms, which hit Mexico within 24 hours of each other on Monday and Tuesday, are now being blamed for the deaths of at least 57 people in Mexico. It was the first time since 1958 that two tropical storms or hurricanes had hit both of Mexico's coasts within 24 hours. Hardest hit was the Acapulco region on Mexico's Pacific coast, where the airport is barely functioning, many roads still flooded and blocked, and tens of thousands of tourists are scrambling to get home. Acapulco received 7.41" of rain from Manuel September 12 - 16, and much higher amounts of rain fell in the surrounding mountains. Newly regenerated Manuel promises to bring 5 - 10" of rain to the Mexican state of Sinaloa, which is likely to cause dangerous flash floods and mudslides.

Figure 1. A soldier wades through the water at the airport of Acapulco, after floods from Tropical Storm Manuel hit on September 17, 2013. Image credit: Pedro Pardo/AFP/Getty Images).

Figure 3. Storm sandwich: Tropical Storm Manuel and Hurricane Ingrid lay siege to Mexico on September 15, 2013. Tropical Storm Manuel came ashore on the Pacific coast near Manzanillo on the afternoon of September 15, and Hurricane Ingrid followed suit from the Atlantic on September 16. Image credit: NASA.

Invest 95L headed for Bay of CampecheWaterlogged Mexico has yet another tropical rain-making system to worry about this week. An area of disturbed weather (Invest 95L) over the Yucatan Peninsula will emerge into the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche by Wednesday night. Satellite loops show that 95L already has a pronounced spin and a respectable area of heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is moderate, and ocean temperatures are warm, 29°C (84°F.) A hurricane hunter flight is scheduled to investigate 95L on Thursday afternoon.

Invest 95L will likely stay trapped in the Bay of CampecheWind shear is expected to be low to moderate over the next five days. There is some dry air over the Bay of Campeche, but I doubt this will be an impediment to development, given the low to moderate wind shear. NHC gave the disturbance 2-day development odds of 70% and 5-day odds of 80% in their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook. Steering currents will be weak in the Bay of Campeche over the next five days, and most of the models predict that 95L will stay trapped there, moving slowly and erratically. However, the UKMET model and approximately 20% of the 20 individual forecasts from the GFS ensemble and European Center ensemble predict that 95L will turn north next week and hit the U.S. Gulf Coast. A cold front and associated upper-level trough of low pressure are expected to push southeastwards over the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and it is possible that the upper-level westerly winds associated with this weather system will reach far enough south to pull 95L out of the Bay of Campeche. It typically takes a stronger upper-level trough of low pressure to flush a tropical cyclone out of the Bay of Campeche, though, and 95L will most likely stay put. Regardless, tropical moisture from 95L will likely stream northeastwards along the cold front over much of the U.S. Gulf Coast on Saturday and Sunday, bringing heavy rains of 2 - 4". A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form along this front over the Southeast U.S. on Sunday, spreading heavy rains up the East Coast early next week.

Typhoon Usagi headed for TaiwanIn the Western Pacific, Typhoon Usagi has intensified to a Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds. Further intensification is likely over the next few days, as Usagi is over very warm waters of 29 - 30°C with high heat content, and is under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots. The official JTWC forecast brings Usagi to a Category 3 storm before encountering Taiwan, when interaction with land could potentially weaken the storm. Satellite images show Usagi has developed a prominent eye surrounded by intense thunderstorms that reach high into the atmosphere. The typhoon is expected to pass north of the Philippines Islands on Friday, and will threaten southern Taiwan on Saturday.

I don't post much either, but 5 years ago, I didn't need this blog for craziness. A storm called Rita pretty much had the ENTIRE state of Texas shut down!!! All extra-curricular school activities as far away as San Antonio were canceled. No Friday night football was allowed within 200 miles of Rita. Rita was going to be Gilbert and Katrina on steroids!! It created the worst evacuation in human history and didn't create a drop of rain or gust of wind anywhere near central TX.

This chaos was created via traditional "educational" routes such as TV and the state of Texas.

I live just south of the Houston area so know too well the days of Rita. I also rode out Hurricane IKE in Galveston being as I worked on the Island

Quoting 428blueyedbiker:I hardly ever post but I come on here for entertainment purposes only and the excellent maps and graphics.But the best part of all is watching the wannabe weather gurus making their predictions. Im sure is fun guessing where a storm might go. I come here for the entertainment but get my forcast from the NHC. The professionals. Even a blind squirrel can find an acorn sometimes. So keep on guessing. Makes for good entertainment. lol

I don't post much either, but 5 years ago, I didn't need this blog for craziness. A storm called Rita pretty much had the ENTIRE state of Texas shut down!!! All extra-curricular school activities as far away as San Antonio were canceled. No Friday night football was allowed within 200 miles of Rita. Rita was going to be Gilbert and Katrina on steroids!! It created the worst evacuation in human history and didn't create a drop of rain or gust of wind anywhere near central TX.

This chaos was created via traditional "educational" routes such as TV and the state of Texas.

Have a blast, I'll catch you later - perhaps to sit out my potential ban? :)

Oh my - outstanding mix with the music! Sort of painful & hard to not laugh at the same time!

Remember how the old Candid Camera shows played tricks on people? Well, I wonder if anyone ever thought of secretly raising the number of the "clearance" on such a bridge with a camera set up to record the havoc,...or maybe the drivers really do not pay attention. (Yikes.)

oh...and for those that do come here to learn...may i suggest two sites that have benefited me...here you can learn to find maps, models and tyhe pages of other.....at these other two..you can learn to decipher the information....they are...noaa's "jetstream"course and many free courses found at "meted"

LOW PRES ALONG A TROUGH HAS EMERGED INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE JUSTW OF THE CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION REMAINSMAINLY OVER LAND AND IS POORLY ORGANIZED. REGARDLESS...FRESH TOSTRONG WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE S CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING THEAPPROACH TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND SPREADING WESTWARD INTO THEBAY OF CAMPECHE AS INDICATED BY A RECENT ASCAT PASS. A LATEMORNING ALTIMETER PASS ALSO SHOWED 7-10 FT SEAS OVER THIS SAMEAREA. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE WNW DURING THENEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THEREAFTER A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTEDTO MOVE OFF OF THE TEXAS COAST INTO THE NW GULF EARLY SAT WITHFRESH NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND IT. MODELS DIVERGE ON WHAT WILLHAPPEN WITH THE LOW WHEN IT INTERACTS WITH THE TROUGH. THE LOW MAYBE DRAWN NORTHWARD THEN TO THE NE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...OR APORTION OF THE ENERGY MAY BE ABSORBED BY THE FRONT WHILE ASURFACE CIRCULATION IS LEFT BEHIND IN THE WAKE OF IT. FOR NOW THELATTER SCENARIO WAS FOLLOWED IN COORDINATION WITH THE HURRICANESPECIALIST UNIT AND WPC. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND 7-11 FT SEASARE EXPECTED IN MAINLY THE W CENTRAL AND CENTRAL GULF WATERS INASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW.