This is the first report from the EPA estimating the cost of technology for mitigating pollution that might arise from geothermal power systems. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has taken an initial step towards the establishment of regulatory standards for the geothermal industry by preparing a document entitled Pollution Control Guidance for Geothermal Energy Development. This report supports that document by providing pollution control cost information. The objective of this report is to provide preliminarycostestimates for air and water pollution treatment and disposal technologies applicable for geothermal energy conversion systems. Costestimates include both annualized capital investment and operation and maintenance (O&M) costs for various levels of environmental requirements. [DJE-2005

Among the recent data mining techniques available, the boosting approach has attracted a great deal of attention because of its effective learning algorithm and strong boundaries in terms of its generalization performance. However, the boosting approach has yet to be used in regression problems within the construction domain, including costestimations, but has been actively utilized in other domains. Therefore, a boosting regression tree (BRT) is applied to costestimations at the early stage of a construction project to examine the applicability of the boosting approach to a regression problem within the construction domain. To evaluate the performance of the BRT model, its performance was compared with that of a neural network (NN) model, which has been proven to have a high performance in costestimation domains. The BRT model has shown results similar to those of NN model using 234 actual cost datasets of a building construction project. In addition, the BRT model can provide additional information such as the importance plot and structure model, which can support estimators in comprehending the decision making process. Consequently, the boosting approach has potential applicability in preliminarycostestimations in a building construction project.

Full Text Available Among the recent data mining techniques available, the boosting approach has attracted a great deal of attention because of its effective learning algorithm and strong boundaries in terms of its generalization performance. However, the boosting approach has yet to be used in regression problems within the construction domain, including costestimations, but has been actively utilized in other domains. Therefore, a boosting regression tree (BRT is applied to costestimations at the early stage of a construction project to examine the applicability of the boosting approach to a regression problem within the construction domain. To evaluate the performance of the BRT model, its performance was compared with that of a neural network (NN model, which has been proven to have a high performance in costestimation domains. The BRT model has shown results similar to those of NN model using 234 actual cost datasets of a building construction project. In addition, the BRT model can provide additional information such as the importance plot and structure model, which can support estimators in comprehending the decision making process. Consequently, the boosting approach has potential applicability in preliminarycostestimations in a building construction project.

Plans for an underground research facility are presented, incorporating techniques to assess the hydrological and thermomechanical response of a rock mass to the introduction and long-term isolation of radioactive waste, and to assess the effects of excavation on the hydrologic integrity of a repository and its subsequent backfill, plugging, and sealing. The project is designed to utilize existing mine or civil works for access to experimental areas and is estimated to last 8 years at a total cost for contruction and operation of $39.0 million (1981 dollars). Performing the same experiments in an existing underground research facility would reduce the duration to 7-1/2 years and cost $27.7 million as a lower-bound estimate. These preliminary plans and estimates should be revised after specific sites are identified which would accommodate the facility.

Among the recent data mining techniques available, the boosting approach has attracted a great deal of attention because of its effective learning algorithm and strong boundaries in terms of its generalization performance. However, the boosting approach has yet to be used in regression problems within the construction domain, including costestimations, but has been actively utilized in other domains. Therefore, a boosting regression tree (BRT) is applied to costestimations at the early stag...

OBJECTIVE: To assess costs and effectiveness of preconception counseling for all women planning pregnancy in The Netherlands with regard to folic acid supplementation and smoking cessation counseling. STUDY DESIGN: Costs and effects were estimated based on 200,000 women approached yearly and uptake

A preliminaryestimate has been made of the manufacturing cost for lithium/iron sulfide cells for stationary energy-storage and electric-vehicle applications. This preliminarycost analysis indicated that the manufacturing cost (in 1979 dollars) is $24 to 41/kW-h for stationary energy-storage cells and $31 to 55/kW-h for electric-vehicle cells. The materials cost was found to contribute between 52 and 65% of this manufacturing cost. The most expensive materials and components were lithium (metal and compounds), $4.61 to $14.26/kW-h; BN felt, $4.00 to 8.50/kW-h; feed-through components, $2.40/kW-h; positive current collectors, $1.48 to 2.20/kW-h; and aluminum, $1.43 to 1.66/kW-h. The projected lithium requirements were determined for use in lithium/iron sulfide batteries and conventional uses to the year 2006. The results showed that the lithium requirements were about 275,000 short tons by 2006, which is equivalent to about 51% of presently known US resources. Of this amount, about 33% would be used in battery production and 67% consumed in conventional uses. It is expected that the lithium used in battery production would be recycled.

The objectives of the two joint Russian/U.S. Leningrad Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) Unit #1 studies were the development of a safe, technically feasible, economically acceptable decom missioning strategy, and the preliminarycost evaluation of the developed strategy. The first study, resulting in the decommissioning strategy, was performed in 1996 and 1997. The preliminarycostestimation study, described in this report, was performed in 1997 and 1998. The decommissioning strategy study included the analyses of three basic RBM.K decommission- ing alternatives, refined for the Leningrad NPP Unit #1. The analyses included analysis of the requirements for the planning and preparation as well as the decommissioning phases.

Software costestimation is the process of predicting the effort, the time and the cost re-quired to complete software project successfully. It involves size measurement of the soft-ware project to be produced, estimating and allocating the effort, drawing the project schedules, and finally, estimating overall cost of the project. Accurate estimation of software project cost is an important factor for business and the welfare of software organization in general. If cost and effort estimat...

on these criteria, a two-part model was chosen. In this model, the probability of incurring any costs was estimated using a logistic regression, while the level of the costs was estimated in the second part of the model. The choice of model had a substantial impact on the predicted health care costs, e......Statistical analysis of cost data is often difficult because of highly skewed data resulting from a few patients who incur high costs relative to the majority of patients. When the objective is to predict the cost for an individual patient, the literature suggests that one should choose...... a regression model based on the quality of its predictions. In exploring the econometric issues, the objective of this study was to estimate a cost function in order to estimate the annual health care cost of dementia. Using different models, health care costs were regressed on the degree of dementia, sex, age...

Based on the survey data about clam breeding farmers in Hongdao Town in August 2011,this paper analyzes the production and operation of typical clam breeding pattern,and estimates the costs and benefits. Through the analysis of operation conditions and economic conditions of Hongdao clam breeding,this paper aims to explore a more reasonable and effective breeding pattern so as to reduce breeding costs and market risks,and increase breeding farmers’ income.

Statistical analysis of cost data is often difficult because of highly skewed data resulting from a few patients who incur high costs relative to the majority of patients. When the objective is to predict the cost for an individual patient, the literature suggests that one should choose...... a regression model based on the quality of its predictions. In exploring the econometric issues, the objective of this study was to estimate a cost function in order to estimate the annual health care cost of dementia. Using different models, health care costs were regressed on the degree of dementia, sex, age......, marital status and presence of any co-morbidity other than dementia. Models with a log-transformed dependent variable, where predicted health care costs were re-transformed to the unlogged original scale by multiplying the exponential of the expected response on the log-scale with the average...

The paper gives an overview of the state of the art of software costestimation (SCE). The main questions to be answered in the paper are: (1) What are the reasons for overruns of budgets and planned durations? (2) What are the prerequisites for estimating? (3) How can software development effort be

The West Sak (Upper Cretaceous) sands, overlaying the Kuparuk field, would rank among the largest known oil fields in the US, but technical difficulties have so far prevented its commercial exploitation. Steam injection is the most successful and the most commonly-used method of heavy oil recovery, but its application to the West Sak presents major problems. Such difficulties may be overcome by using a novel approach, in which steam is generated downhole in a catalytic Methanator, from Syngas made at the surface from endothermic reactions (Table 1). The Methanator effluent, containing steam and soluble gases resulting from exothermic reactions (Table 1), is cyclically injected into the reservoir by means of a horizontal drainhole while hot produced fluids flow form a second drainhole into a central production tubing. The downhole reactor feed and BFW flow downward to two concentric tubings. The large-diameter casing required to house the downhole reactor assembly is filled above it with Arctic Pack mud, or crude oil, to further reduce heat leaks. A quantitative analysis of this production scheme for the West Sak required a preliminary engineering of the downhole and surface facilities and a tentative forecast of well production rates. The results, based on published information on the West Sak, have been used to estimate the cost of these facilities, per daily barrel of oil produced. A preliminary economic analysis and conclusions are presented together with an outline of future work. Economic and regulatory conditions which would make this approach viable are discussed. 28 figs.

Full Text Available Early estimation of project size and completion time is essential for successful project planning and tracking. Multiple methods have been proposed to estimate software size and cost parameters. Suitability of the estimation methods depends on many factors like software application domain, product complexity, availability of historical data, team expertise etc. Most common and widely used estimation techniques are described and analyzed. Current research trends in software estimationcost are also presented.

REVIEW AND VALIDATION, (3) RESEARCH AND METHODOLOGY AND (4) DATA ANALYSIS. THESE FUNCTIONAL THRUSTS ARE IN TURN FOCUSED TO ESTIMATING AND ANALISIS ...ANALYSIS OF COST ISSUES -- TO PROVIDE CONSISTENCY AND COMPLETENESS OF ESTIMATES PREPARED BY OTHER FUNCTIONAL ACTIVITIES. MANAGERIAL 1. COST ANALISIS HAS

Costestimation for large (and even not so large) government programs is a challenge. The number and magnitude of cost overruns associated with large Department of Defense (DoD) and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) programs highlight the difficulties in developing and promulgating accurate costestimates. These overruns can be the result of inadequate technology readiness or requirements definition, the whims of politicians or government bureaucrats, or even as failures of the costestimating profession itself. However, there may be another reason for cost overruns that is right in front of us, but only recently have we begun to grasp it: the fact that costestimators and their customers are human. The last 70+ years of research into human psychology and behavioral economics have yielded amazing findings into how we humans process and use information to make judgments and decisions. What these scientists have uncovered is surprising: humans are often irrational and illogical beings, making decisions based on factors such as emotion and perception, rather than facts and data. These built-in biases to our thinking directly affect how we develop our costestimates and how those costestimates are used. We costestimators can use this knowledge of biases to improve our costestimates and also to improve how we communicate and work with our customers. By understanding how our customers think, and more importantly, why they think the way they do, we can have more productive relationships and greater influence. By using psychology to our advantage, we can more effectively help the decision maker and our organizations make fact-based decisions.

The primary objective of this work is to provide guidelines to estimate the decommissioning cost as well as the stakeholders with plausible information to understand the decommissioning activities in a reasonable manner, which eventually contribute to acquiring the public acceptance for the nuclear power industry. Although several cases of the decommissioning costestimate have been made for a few commercial nuclear power plants, the different technical, site-specific and economic assumptions used make it difficult to interpret those costestimates and compare them with that of a relevant plant. Trustworthy costestimates are crucial to plan a safe and economic decommissioning project. The typical approach is to break down the decommissioning project into a series of discrete and measurable work activities. Although plant specific differences derived from the economic and technical assumptions make a licensee difficult to estimate reliable decommissioning costs, estimating decommissioning costs is the most crucial processes since it encompasses all the spectrum of activities from the planning to the final evaluation on whether a decommissioning project has successfully been preceded from the perspective of safety and economic points. Hence, it is clear that tenacious efforts should be needed to successfully perform the decommissioning project.

This paper presents the development of a methodology and tool (called SCENT) to prepare preliminary economic estimates of the total production costs related to manufacturing in the process industries. The methodology uses the factorial approach – cost objects are estimated using factors and

Parametric cost models are routinely used to plan missions, compare concepts and justify technology investments. Previously, the authors published two single variable cost models based on 19 flight missions. The current paper presents the development of a multi-variable space telescopes cost model. The validity of previously published models are tested. Costestimating relationships which are and are not significant cost drivers are identified. And, interrelationships between variables are explored

Satellite constellations and Distributed Spacecraft Mission (DSM) architectures offer unique benefits to Earth observation scientists and unique challenges to costestimators. The Cost and Risk (CR) module of the Tradespace Analysis Tool for Constellations (TAT-C) being developed by NASA Goddard seeks to address some of these challenges by providing a new approach to cost modeling, which aggregates existing CostEstimating Relationships (CER) from respected sources, costestimating best practices, and data from existing and proposed satellite designs. Costestimation through this tool is approached from two perspectives: parametric costestimating relationships and analogous costestimation techniques. The dual approach utilized within the TAT-C CR module is intended to address prevailing concerns regarding early design stage costestimates, and offer increased transparency and fidelity by offering two preliminary perspectives on mission cost. This work outlines the existing cost model, details assumptions built into the model, and explains what measures have been taken to address the particular challenges of constellation costestimating. The risk estimation portion of the TAT-C CR module is still in development and will be presented in future work. The costestimate produced by the CR module is not intended to be an exact mission valuation, but rather a comparative tool to assist in the exploration of the constellation design tradespace. Previous work has noted that estimating the cost of satellite constellations is difficult given that no comprehensive model for constellation costestimation has yet been developed, and as such, quantitative assessment of multiple spacecraft missions has many remaining areas of uncertainty. By incorporating well-established CERs with preliminary approaches to approaching these uncertainties, the CR module offers more complete approach to constellation costing than has previously been available to mission architects or Earth

When evaluating new investment projects, oil companies traditionally use the discounted cashflow method. This method requires expected cashflows in the numerator and a risk adjusted required rate of return in the denominator in order to calculate net present value. The capital expenditure (CAPEX) of a project is one of the major cashflows used to calculate net present value. Usually the CAPEX is given by a single cost figure, with some indication of its probability distribution. In the oil industry and many other industries, it is common practice to report a CAPEX that is the estimated 50/50 (median) CAPEX instead of the estimated expected (expected value) CAPEX. In this article we demonstrate how the practice of using a 50/50 (median) CAPEX, when the cost distributions are asymmetric, causes project valuation errors and therefore may lead to wrong investment decisions with acceptance of projects that have negative net present values. (author)

Main objectives of costestimation is to indicate the costs required to complete the decommissioning project and to optimize the dismantling sequence and timing and then minimize the decommissioning total costs. There are three types of costestimate; (i) Order of magnitude estimate, (ii) Budgetary estimate, (iii) Definitive estimate. Second of the theses types is applied to cost calculation in this paper. This was also applied to costestimate part of preliminary decommissioning plan for Kijang construction approval. In this paper, the methodology and procedure for decommissioning costing using CERREX software were presented and costestimation was performed and compared with actual decommissioning cost for KRR- 1(Korea Reactor Research, Unit 1). Costestimation for KRR-1 was carried out applying to CERREX software. Table 1 shows the result values of the calculation. The currency was calculated as USD. Calculated cost is within the limit of 'Budgetary estimate' and the values is approximately $7,800,000. Labor costs are calculated based on manpower components per involved professions and hour rates per typical professions.

The goal of this article is to improve the practice and reporting of costestimates of prevention programs. It reviews the steps in estimating the costs of an intervention and the principles that should guide estimation. The authors then review prior efforts to estimate intervention costs using a sample of well-known but diverse studies. Finally,…

The goal of this article is to improve the practice and reporting of costestimates of prevention programs. It reviews the steps in estimating the costs of an intervention and the principles that should guide estimation. The authors then review prior efforts to estimate intervention costs using a sample of well-known but diverse studies. Finally,…

Professional costestimators are widely used by architects during the design phases of a project to provide preliminarycostestimates. These estimates may begin at the conceptual design phase and are prepared at regular intervals through the construction document phase. Estimating professionals are frequently tasked with "selling" the importance…

Software CostEstimation is one of the most important part in software development. It involves in estimating the effort and cost in terms of money to complete the software development. Software CostEstimation is very important when lines of code for the particular project exceeds certain limit, also when the software deployed with too many bugs and uncovered requirements the project will go incomplete. Software costestimation of a project plays a vital role in acceptance or rejection of it...

In the current economic context, optimizing projects' cost is an obligation for a company to remain competitive in its market. Introducing statistical uncertainty in costestimation is a good way to tackle the risk of going too far while minimizing the project budget: it allows the company to determine the best possible trade-off between estimatedcost and acceptable risk. In this paper, we present new statistical estimators derived from the way IT companies estimate the projects' costs. In t...

This report compares hydrogen station costestimates conveyed by expert stakeholders through the Hydrogen Station Cost Calculation (HSCC) to a select number of other costestimates. These other costestimates include projections based upon cost models and costs associated with recently funded stations.

Recently, a Norwegian government report on the cost overruns of projects in the North Sea was presented (NOU 1999:11). It concluded that there was a 25% increase in development costs from project sanction (POD, Plan for Operation and Development) to last CCE (Capital CostEstimate) for the 11 oil field projects investigated. Many reasons like unclear project assumptions in early phase, optimistic interpolation of previous project assumptions, too optimistic estimates, and underestimation of uncertainty were given as reasons for overruns. In this article we highlight the possibility that the cost overruns are not necessarily all due to the reasons given, but also to an error in the estimation and reporting of the capital expenditure cost (CAPEX). Usually the CAPEX is given by a single cost figure, with some indication of its probability distribution. The oil companies report, and are required to do so by government authorities, the estimated 50/50 (median) costestimate instead of the estimated expected value costestimate. We demonstrate how the practice of using a 50/50 (median) CAPEX estimate for the 11 projects when the cost uncertainty distributions are asymmetric, may explain at least part of the ''overruns''. Hence, we advocate changing the practice of using 50/50 costestimates instead of expected value costestimates for project management and decision purposes. (author)

Using ratios of costs to charges (RCCs) to estimatecosts can cause hospitals to significantly over- or under-invest in service lines. A focus on improving costestimation in cost centers where physicians have significant control over operating expenses, such as drugs or implants, can strengthen decision making and strategic planning. Connecting patient file information to purchasing data can lead to more accurate reflections of actual costs and help hospitals gain better visibility across service lines.

In 2009, they decided to update the Yellow Book, and began to update it by analyzing user experiences. They found that several countries have adopted the proposed standardized cost structure for the production of costestimates directly or for mapping national estimates onto a common structure. They also made conclusions that more detailed advice should be given on the use of the standardized structure and on the definition of cost items to avoid ambiguity. The revised cost structure, to be known as the International Structure for Decommissioning Costing (ISDC), was published in 2012. The standardized cost structure developed in the report may be used for estimating the costs of decommissioning of any type of nuclear facility. We analyzed this standardized cost structure (ISDC) and applied it to DECOMMIS which was developed by KAERI. The appropriate estimation system for domestic application was examined by comparing the estimation results. KAERI made WBS code in DECOMMIS and data obtained during decommissioning work of KRR2 and UCP. Recently the IAEA updated the decommissioning cost items and its structure by ISDC. The costestimation items of the DECOMMIS were applied to ISDC structure. For applying, the ISDC code compared with WBS code of DECOMMIS as on text of the activity name from daily report basis. The mapping result of the ISDC items to WBS code of the DECOMMIS is much different. AS results of this study that it need the corresponding cost category which classified in accordance with the national standard price estimates.

Environmental restoration (ER) projects have presented the DOE and costestimators with a number of properties that are not comparable to the normal estimating climate within DOE. These properties include: An entirely new set of specialized expressions and terminology. A higher than normal exposure to cost and schedule risk, as compared to most other DOE projects, due to changing regulations, public involvement, resource shortages, and scope of work. A higher than normal percentage of indirect costs to the total estimatedcost due primarily to record keeping, special training, liability, and indemnification. More than one estimate for a project, particularly in the assessment phase, in order to provide input into the evaluation of alternatives for the cleanup action. While some aspects of existing guidance for costestimators will be applicable to environmental restoration projects, some components of the present guidelines will have to be modified to reflect the unique elements of these projects. The purpose of this Handbook is to assist costestimators in the preparation of environmental restoration estimates for Environmental Restoration and Waste Management (EM) projects undertaken by DOE. The DOE has, in recent years, seen a significant increase in the number, size, and frequency of environmental restoration projects that must be costed by the various DOE offices. The coming years will show the EM program to be the largest non-weapons program undertaken by DOE. These projects create new and unique estimating requirements since historical cost and estimating precedents are meager at best. It is anticipated that this Handbook will enhance the quality of cost data within DOE in several ways by providing: The basis for accurate, consistent, and traceable baselines. Sound methodologies, guidelines, and estimating formats. Sources of cost data/databases and estimating tools and techniques available at DOE cost professionals.

A critical cost accounting issue relating to nursing costs is that nursing costs are currently averaged into the daily room rate in the hospitals. This accounting practice treats nursing units as cost centers as nursing costs are bundled into a per diem rate instead of billed separately. As a result, all patients in a given care unit of the hospital are presumed to consume the same amount of nursing care resources. This costing and billing system creates a mismatch between resources consumption and billed charges. The objective of this paper is to (1) demonstrate current practice to estimate nursing costs, (2) classify nursing costs into direct and indirect costs in order to refine the existing approaches and (3) argue that a system of billing nursing costs separately better reflects the costs of patient care.

The Data Service Provider CostEstimation Tool (CET) and Comparables Database (CDB) package provides to NASA s Earth Science Enterprise (ESE) the ability to estimate the full range of year-by-year lifecycle costestimates for the implementation and operation of data service providers required by ESE to support its science and applications programs. The CET can make estimates dealing with staffing costs, supplies, facility costs, network services, hardware and maintenance, commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) software licenses, software development and sustaining engineering, and the changes in costs that result from changes in workload. Data Service Providers may be stand-alone or embedded in flight projects, field campaigns, research or applications projects, or other activities. The CET and CDB package employs a cost-estimation-by-analogy approach. It is based on a new, general data service provider reference model that provides a framework for construction of a database by describing existing data service providers that are analogs (or comparables) to planned, new ESE data service providers. The CET implements the staff effort and costestimation algorithms that access the CDB and generates the lifecycle costestimate for a new data services provider. This data creates a common basis for an ESE proposal evaluator for considering projected data service provider costs.

To align their financing strategies and fundraising efforts with their fiscal needs, charter school leaders need to know how much funding they need and what that funding will support. This costestimation tool offers a simple set of worksheets to help start-up charter school operators identify and estimate the range of costs and timing of…

textabstractIn a recent paper Hong and Shum (forthcoming) present a structural methodology to estimate search cost distributions. We extend their approach to the case of oligopoly and present a maximum likelihood estimate of the search cost distribution. We apply our method to a data set of online p

This article investigates costestimation errors in the context of offshoring. It is argued that an imprecise estimation of the costs related to implementing a firm activity in a foreign location has a negative impact on the process performance of that activity. Performance is deterred...

This Deliverable No. 18b - Capital and Operating CostEstimates includes a detailed presentation of the 12,500 BPD coal-to-methanol-to-gasoline plant from the standpoint of capital, preoperations, start-up and operations costestimation. The base capital costestimate in June 1982 dollars was prepared by the Ralph M. Parsons Company under the direction of Grace. The escalated capital costestimate as well as separate estimates for preoperations, startup and operations activities were developed by Grace. The deliverable consists of four volumes. Volume I contains details of methodology used in developing the capital costestimate, summary information on a base June 1982 capital cost, details of the escalated capital costestimate and separate sections devoted to preoperations, start-up, and operations cost. The base estimate is supported by detailed information in Volumes II, III and IV. The degree of detail for some units was constrained due to proprietary data. Attempts have been made to exhibit the estimating methodology by including data on individual equipment pricing. Proprietary details are available for inspection upon execution of nondisclosure and/or secrecy agreements with the licensors to whom the data is proprietary. Details of factoring certain pieces of equipment and/or entire modules or units from the 50,000 BPD capital estimate are also included. In the case of the escalated capital estimate, Grace has chosen to include a sensitivity analysis which allows for ready assessment of impacts of escalation rates (inflation), contingency allowances and the construction interest financing rates on the escalated capital cost. Each of the estimates associated with bringing the plant to commercial production rates has as a basis the schedule and engineering documentation found in Deliverable No. 14b - Process Engineering and Mechanical Design Report, No. 28b - Staffing Plans, No. 31b - Construction Plan, and No. 33b - Startup and Operation Plan.

In manufacturing today, nothing is more important than giving a customer a clear and straight-forward accounting of what their money has purchased. Many potentially promising return business orders are lost because of unclear, ambiguous, or improper billing. One of the best ways of resolving cost bargaining conflicts is by providing a…

In manufacturing today, nothing is more important than giving a customer a clear and straight-forward accounting of what their money has purchased. Many potentially promising return business orders are lost because of unclear, ambiguous, or improper billing. One of the best ways of resolving cost bargaining conflicts is by providing a…

Full Text Available Abstract Background Health inequalities have been extensively documented, internationally and in New Zealand. The cost of reducing health inequities is often perceived as high; however, recent international studies suggest the cost of “doing nothing” is itself significant. This study aimed to develop a preliminaryestimate of the economic cost of health inequities between Māori (indigenous and non-Māori children in New Zealand. Methods Standard quantitative epidemiological methods and “cost of illness” methodology were employed, within a Kaupapa Māori theoretical framework. Data were obtained from national data collections held by the New Zealand Health Information Service and other health sector agencies. Results Preliminaryestimates suggest child health inequities between Māori and non-Māori in New Zealand are cost-saving to the health sector. However the societal costs are significant. A conservative “base case” scenario estimate is over $NZ62 million per year, while alternative costing methods yield larger costs of nearly $NZ200 million per annum. The total costestimate is highly sensitive to the costing method used and Value of Statistical Life applied, as the cost of potentially avoidable deaths of Māori children is the major contributor to this estimate. Conclusions This preliminary study suggests that health sector spending is skewed towards non-Māori children despite evidence of greater Māori need. Persistent child health inequities result in significant societal economic costs. Eliminating child health inequities, particularly in primary care access, could result in significant economic benefits for New Zealand. However, there are conceptual, ethical and methodological challenges in estimating the economic cost of child health inequities. Re-thinking of traditional economic frameworks and development of more appropriate methodologies is required.

Full Text Available Costestimating relationships (CERs are very important tools in the planning phases of an upstream project. CERs are, in general, multiple regression models developed to estimate the cost of a particular item or scope of a project. They are based in historical data that should pass through a normalization process before fitting a model. In the early phases they are the primary tool for costestimating. In later phases they are usually used as an estimation validation tool and sometimes for benchmarking purposes. As in any other modeling methodology there are number of important steps to build a model. In this paper the process of building a CER to estimate drilling cost of onshore wells will be addressed.

This report presents generic cost curves for several equipment types generated using ICARUS Process Evaluator. The curves give Purchased Equipment Cost as a function of a capacity variable. This work was performed to assist NETL engineers and scientists in performing rapid, order of magnitude level costestimates or as an aid in evaluating the reasonableness of costestimates submitted with proposed systems studies or proposals for new processes. The specific equipment types contained in this report were selected to represent a relatively comprehensive set of conventional chemical process equipment types.

Until it was defunded in 1995, the U.S. Bureau of Mines maintained a CostEstimating System (CES) for prefeasibility-type economic evaluations of mineral deposits and estimatingcosts at producing and non-producing mines. This system had a significant role in mineral resource assessments to estimatecosts of developing and operating known mineral deposits and predicted undiscovered deposits. For legal reasons, the U.S. Geological Survey cannot update and maintain CES. Instead, statistical tools are under development to estimate mining costs from basic properties of mineral deposits such as tonnage, grade, mineralogy, depth, strip ratio, distance from infrastructure, rock strength, and work index. The first step was to reestimate "Taylor's Rule" which relates operating rate to available ore tonnage. The second step was to estimate statistical models of capital and operating costs for open pit porphyry copper mines with flotation concentrators. For a sample of 27 proposed porphyry copper projects, capital costs can be estimated from three variables: mineral processing rate, strip ratio, and distance from nearest railroad before mine construction began. Of all the variables tested, operating costs were found to be significantly correlated only with strip ratio.

Changes in production processes reflect the technological advances permeat­ ing our products and services. U. S. industry is modernizing and automating. In parallel, direct labor is fading as the primary cost driver while engineering and technology related cost elements loom ever larger. Traditional, labor-based ap­ proaches to estimatingcosts are losing their relevance. Old methods require aug­ mentation with new estimating tools and techniques that capture the emerging environment. This volume represents one of many responses to this challenge by the cost analysis profession. The Institute of Cost Analysis (lCA) is dedicated to improving the effective­ ness of cost and price analysis and enhancing the professional competence of its members. We encourage and promote exchange of research findings and appli­ cations between the academic community and cost professionals in industry and government. The 1990 National Meeting in Los Angeles, jointly spo~sored by ICA and the National Estimating Society (NES),...

... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 6 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 true Estimatedcost and cost... and Clauses 1852.216-73 Estimatedcost and cost sharing. As prescribed in 1816.307-70(a), insert the following clause: EstimatedCost and Cost Sharing (DEC 1991) (a) It is estimated that the total cost...

... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 6 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 true Estimatedcost and cost... 1552.216-76 Estimatedcost and cost-sharing. As prescribed in 1516.307(c), insert the following clause: EstimatedCost and Cost-Sharing (APR 1996) (a) The total estimatedcost of performing the work under...

This paper develops and estimates a dynamic model of stock market participation, where consumers' decisions regarding stock market participation are influenced by participation costs. The practical significance of the participation costs is considered as being a channel through which financial...... education programs can affect consumers' investment decisions. Using household data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, I estimate the magnitude of the participation cost, allowing for individual heterogeneity in it. The results show the average stock market participation cost is about 4–6% of labor...... income; however, it varies substantially over consumers' life. The model successfully predicts the level of the observed participation rate and the increasing pattern of stock market participation over the consumers' life cycle....

A crucial parameter for the market penetration of TPV is its electricity production cost. In this work a detailed costestimate is performed for a Si photocell based TPV system, which was developed for electrically self-powered operation of a domestic heating system. The results are compared to a rough estimate of cost of electricity for a projected GaSb based system. For the calculation of the price of electricity, a lifetime of 20 years, an interest rate of 4.25% per year and maintenance costs of 1% of the investment are presumed. To determine the production cost of TPV systems with a power of 12-20 kW, the costs of the TPV components and 100 EUR kW-1el,peak for assembly and miscellaneous were estimated. Alternatively, the system cost for the GaSb system was derived from the cost of the photocells and from the assumption that they account for 35% of the total system cost. The calculation was done for four different TPV scenarios which include a Si based prototype system with existing technology (etasys = 1.0%), leading to 3000 EUR kW-1el,peak, an optimized Si based system using conventional, available technology (etasys = 1.5%), leading to 900 EUR kW-1el,peak, a further improved system with future technology (etasys = 5%), leading to 340 EUR kW-1el,peak and a GaSb based system (etasys = 12.3% with recuperator), leading to 1900 EUR kW-1el,peak. Thus, prices of electricity from 6 to 25 EURcents kWh-1el (including gas of about 3.5 EURcents kWh-1) were calculated and compared with those of fuel cells (31 EURcents kWh-1) and gas engines (23 EURcents kWh-1).

This report summarizes the activities and progress by ICF Kaiser Engineers conducted on behalf of Los Alamos National Laboratories (LANL) for the US Department of Energy, Office of Waste Management (EM-33) in the area of improving methods for CostEstimation. This work was conducted between October 1, 1992 and September 30, 1993. ICF Kaiser Engineers supported LANL in providing the Office of Waste Management with planning and document preparation services for a Cost and Schedule Estimating Guide (Guide). The intent of the Guide was to use Activity-Based Cost (ABC) estimation as a basic method in preparing costestimates for DOE planning and budgeting documents, including Activity Data Sheets (ADSs), which form the basis for the Five Year Plan document. Prior to the initiation of the present contract with LANL, ICF Kaiser Engineers was tasked to initiate planning efforts directed toward a Guide. This work, accomplished from June to September, 1992, included visits to eight DOE field offices and consultation with DOE Headquarters staff to determine the need for a Guide, the desired contents of a Guide, and the types of ABC estimation methods and documentation requirements that would be compatible with current or potential practices and expertise in existence at DOE field offices and their contractors.

The primary objective of this report is to conduct a preliminary benefit-cost study for the proposed power addition to FFTF to determine whether the project is cost-effective. If the project is authorized, construction will begin in 1986 and end in 1991. Full power operation is scheduled to begin in 1991 and a project life of 20 years is assumed. The undiscounted cost during the construction period of the FFTF power addition is estimated to be approximately $117 million over the construction period (1984 dollars). An additional $3 million is estimated as the opportunity cost - or value of these resources in their most favorable alternative use - of surplus FFTF equipment and unused CRBR equipment, including materials for steam generator fabrication. The annual operating and maintenance cost of the project is estimated to be about $2.1 million in 1984 dollars. 20 references.

The paper discusses a procedure for estimating permanent total enclosure (PTE) costs. (NOTE: Industries that use add-on control devices must adequately capture emissions before delivering them to the control device. One way to capture emissions is to use PTEs, enclosures that mee...

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), also referred to as drones, are aerial platforms that fly without a human pilot onboard. UAVs are controlled autonomously by a computer in the vehicle or under the remote control of a pilot stationed at a fixed ground location. There are a wide variety of drone shapes, sizes, configurations, complexities, and characteristics. Use of these devices by the Department of Defense (DoD), NASA, civil and commercial organizations continues to grow. UAVs are commonly used for intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance (ISR). They are also use for combat operations, and civil applications, such as firefighting, non-military security work, surveillance of infrastructure (e.g. pipelines, power lines and country borders). UAVs are often preferred for missions that require sustained persistence (over 4 hours in duration), or are “ too dangerous, dull or dirty” for manned aircraft. Moreover, they can offer significant acquisition and operations cost savings over traditional manned aircraft. Because of these unique characteristics and missions, UAV estimates require some unique estimating methods. This paper describes a framework for estimating UAV systems total ownership cost including hardware components, software design, and operations. The challenge of collecting data, testing the sensitivities of cost drivers, and creating costestimating relationships (CERs) for each key work breakdown structure (WBS) element is discussed. The autonomous operation of UAVs is especially challenging from a software perspective.

in actual spend and over 40% of variation in necessary spend. Population pressure is a variable that has not been used to model protected area management costs before, yet proved to be considerably better at predicting both actual and necessary spend than other measures of anthropogenic pressure. We use our...... results to estimate necessary spend at a 9 km2 resolution across the EAM and highlight those areas where the management costs of effective management are predicted to be high. This information can be used by conservation planners in the region and can be estimated for future scenarios of population growth......Despite chronic underfunding for conservation and the recognition that funds must be invested wisely, few studies have analysed the direct costs of managing protected areas at the spatial scales needed to inform local site management. Using a questionnaire survey we collected data from protected...

Sherpa is a menu driven software package, designed by Western Mine Engineering Inc., to determine capital and operating costs for surface mining operations. The programme is engineering-based (as opposed to based on statistics) meaning that all equipment, labour and supply requirements are determined from deposit design, production, and geologic information using standard engineering techniques. These requirements are used in conjunction with equipment, supply, and labour cost data bases internal to the programme to determine all associated costs. By programming the engineering processes commonly used to estimatecosts, Sherpa is designed to allow users working in the pre-feasibility stage to function at a level of detail normally reserved for final feasibility studies. 1 fig., 2 tabs.

Preliminary capital cost and size estimates were made for an electrochemical bulk energy storage concept for a redox-flow-cell system. Preliminary calculations showed that the redox-flow-cell system has great promise as a bulk energy storage system for power load leveling. The size of the system was estimated to be less than 2 percent of the size of a comparable pumped hydroelectric storage plant.

AIM: To estimate the direct medical costs of gastroenterological diseases within the universal health insurance program among the population of local residents in Taiwan.METHODS: The data sources were the first 4 cohort datasets of 200 000 people from the National Health Insurance Research Database in Taipei. The ambulatory,inpatient and pharmacy claims of the cohort in 2001 were analyzed. Besides prevalence and medical costs of diseases,both amount and costs of utilization in procedures and drugs were calculated.RESULTS: Of the cohort with 183 976 eligible people, 44.2% had ever a gastroenterological diagnosis during the year.The age group 20-39 years had the lowest prevalence rate(39.2%) while the elderly had the highest (58.4%). The prevalence rate was higher in women than in men (48.5%vs. 40.0%). Totally, 30.4% of 14 888 inpatients had ever a gastroenterological diagnosis at discharge and 18.8% of 51 359 patients at clinics of traditional Chinese medicine had such a diagnosis there. If only the principal diagnosis on each daim was considered, 16.2% of admissions, 8.0% of outpatient visits, and 10.1% of the total medical costs (8 469 909 US dollars/83 830 239 US dollars) were attributed to gastroenterological diseases. On average, 46.0 US dollars per insured person in a year were spent in treating gastroenterological diseases.Diagnostic procedures related to gastroenterological diseases accounted for 24.2% of the costs for all diagnostic procedures and 2.3% of the total medical costs. Therapeutic procedures related to gastroenterological diseases accounted for 4.5% of the costs for all therapeutic procedures and 1.3% of thetotal medical costs. Drugs related to gastroenterological diseases accounted for 7.3% of the costs for all drugs and 1.9% of the total medical costs.CONCLUSION: Gastroenterological diseases are prevalent among the population of local residents in Taiwan, account ingfor a tenth of the total medical costs. Further investigations are needed to

Full Text Available The current paper tackles the issue of determining a method for estimating maintenance costs for web applications. The current state of research in the field of web application maintenance is summarized and leading theories and results are highlighted. The cost of web maintenance is determined by the number of man-hours invested in maintenance tasks. Web maintenance tasks are categorized into content maintenance and technical maintenance. Research is centered on analyzing technical maintenance tasks. The research hypothesis is formulated on the assumption that the number of man-hours invested in maintenance tasks can be assessed based on the web application’s user interaction level, complexity and content update effort. Data regarding the costs of maintenance tasks is collected from 24 maintenance projects implemented by a web development company that tackles a wide area of web applications. Homogeneity and diversity of collected data is submitted for debate by presenting a sample of the data and depicting the overall size and comprehensive nature of the entire dataset. A set of metrics dedicated to estimating maintenance costs in web applications is defined based on conclusions formulated by analyzing the collected data and the theories and practices dominating the current state of research. Metrics are validated with regards to the initial research hypothesis. Research hypothesis are validated and conclusions are formulated on the topic of estimating the maintenance cost of web applications. The limits of the research process which represented the basis for the current paper are enunciated. Future research topics are submitted for debate.

The major objective of the Initial Effort for the Breckinridge Project is to develop engineering to the point where realistic economics for the construction and operation of the plant can be made. The plant is designed to process 23,000 tons per day of run-of-mine coal to produce a nominal 50,000 barrels per day of liquid products using the H-COAL and standard industry technology. The plant will be located in Breckinridge County, Kentucky. Considerable preliminary engineering has been performed for this estimate. This work uses a single-point design based on the Process Demonstration Unit (PDU) data from run 5, period 29 of the pilot plant. The design basis is discussed in Volume II of this report. Many aspects of plant construction and cost have been considered that were not taken into account in the past studies. Ashland and Bechtel believe the accuracy of the capital estimate to be +19%, -17%. This accuracy is postulated on January 1981 dollars, the as-spent dollar amount naturally depending upon the inflation rate through the construction period. Considerable attention has been devoted to reliability of operation, and redundant equipment has been used where it was deemed necessary to assure reasonable onstream time. This equipment is included in the capital estimate. The capital is summarized by total plant cost on Table 1. The subtotal plant cost, excluding contingency, fee, and adjustment is $2,710,940,000. Adding the contingency, fee and adjustment, the total depreciable cost of the plant is $3,167,430,000. Adding the working capital to the total plant cost results in total capital requirements of $3,258,430,000 as shown on the individual plant cost summary Table 2.

Full Text Available Proper CostEstimate, Monitor and Control (CEM&C are vital for the success of construction projects. Starting from preliminary design to project closing, CEM&C progressively becomes more complex and challenging. Visualization can add another dimension to monitor and control where major deviations can be visually detected and analyzed. However, literature related to visualization in construction and integrating it with cost control is still in its early stages. Building Information Modeling (BIM can have promising impact in that domain. In this paper, a comprehensive costestimating and monitoring model is presented. The model is integrated with BIM to provide the user with the capability of visualizing actual cost expended in different building elements and compare it with that budgeted at different time intervals. It provides construction practitioners with vital data that help them in taking appropriate corrective actions in case of any deviation from the budget. An example application is presented to demonstrate the capability and applicability of the model.

NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION Preliminary Observations on Indirect Costs for Research Statement of John Neumann, Director...on Science , Space, and Technology, House of Representatives For Release on Delivery Expected at 10:00 a.m. ET Wednesday, May 24th, 2017 GAO-17...testimony before the Subcommittee on Research and Technology and the Subcommittee on Oversight, Committee on Science , Space, and Technology, House of

Spectral estimation is considered as the golden standard in ultrasound velocity estimation. For spectral velocity estimation the blood flow angle is set by the ultrasound operator. Vector flow provides temporal and spatial estimates of the blood flow angle and velocity. A comparison of vector flow...... agrees with the spectral flow angle. The vector velocity estimates agrees with the spectral estimates at PS and ED. From preliminary data it is concluded that vector flow angle estimation can replace the operator-dependent angle correction used for spectral velocity estimation....... estimation and spectral estimates is presented. The variation of the blood flow angle and the effect on the velocity estimate is investigated. The right common carotid arteries of three healthy volunteers were scanned. Real-time spectral and vector flow data were obtained simultaneously from one range gate...

The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers have completed an analysis of the Department of Energy's (DOE) Fiscal Year (FY) 1993 budget request for its Environmental Restoration and Waste Management (ERWM) program. The results were presented to an interagency review group (IAG) of senior-Administration officials for their consideration in the budget process. This analysis included evaluations of the underlying legal requirements and costestimates on which the ERWM budget request was based. The major conclusions are contained in a separate report entitled, ''Interagency Review of the Department of Energy Environmental Restoration and Waste Management Program.'' This Corps supplemental report provides greater detail on the cost analysis.

Recent developments in econometrics that are relevant to the task of estimatingcosts in higher education are reviewed. The relative effectiveness of alternative statistical procedures for estimatingcosts are also tested. Statistical costestimation involves three basic parts: a model, a data set, and an estimation procedure. Actual data are used…

... 28 Judicial Administration 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Cost and percentage estimates. 19.4... RECOVERY OF MISSING CHILDREN § 19.4 Cost and percentage estimates. It is estimated that this program will cost DOJ $78,000 during the initial year. This figure is based on estimates of printing, inserting,...

Objectives The aim of this study was to estimate lowest possible treatment costs for four novel cancer drugs, hypothesising that generic manufacturing could significantly reduce treatment costs. Setting This research was carried out in a non-clinical research setting using secondary data. Participants There were no human participants in the study. Four drugs were selected for the study: bortezomib, dasatinib, everolimus and gefitinib. These medications were selected according to their clinical importance, novel pharmaceutical actions and the availability of generic price data. Primary and secondary outcome measures Target costs for treatment were to be generated for each indication for each treatment. The primary outcome measure was the target cost according to a production cost calculation algorithm. The secondary outcome measure was the target cost as the lowest available generic price; this was necessary where export data were not available to generate an estimate from our cost calculation algorithm. Other outcomes included patent expiry dates and total eligible treatment populations. Results Target prices were £411 per cycle for bortezomib, £9 per month for dasatinib, £852 per month for everolimus and £10 per month for gefitinib. Compared with current list prices in England, these target prices would represent reductions of 74–99.6%. Patent expiry dates were bortezomib 2014–22, dasatinib 2020–26, everolimus 2019–25 and gefitinib 2017. The total global eligible treatment population in 1 year is 769 736. Conclusions Our findings demonstrate that affordable drug treatment costs are possible for novel cancer drugs, suggesting that new therapeutic options can be made available to patients and doctors worldwide. Assessing treatment costestimations alongside cost-effectiveness evaluations is an important area of future research. PMID:28110283

A multi-layer adaptive optimizing parameters algorithm is developed for improving least squares support vector machines(LS-SVM),and a military aircraft life-cycle-cost(LCC)intelligent estimation model is proposed based on the improved LS-SVM.The intelligent costestimation process is divided into three steps in the model.In the first step,a cost-drive-factor needs to be selected,which is significant for costestimation.In the second step,military aircraft training samples within costs and cost-drive-factor set are obtained by the LS-SVM.Then the model can be used for new type aircraft costestimation.Chinese military aircraft costs are estimated in the paper.The results show that the estimatedcosts by the new model are closer to the true costs than that of the traditionally used methods.

In response to federal mandates and incentives for renewable energy, Sandia National Laboratories conducted a feasibility study of installing an on-site wind farm on Sandia National Laboratories and Kirtland Air Force Base property. This report describes this preliminary analysis of the costs and benefits of installing and operating a 15-turbine, 30-MW-capacity wind farm that delivers an estimated 16 percent of 2010 onsite demand. The report first describes market and non-market economic costs and benefits associated with operating a wind farm, and then uses a standard life-cycle costing and benefit-cost framework to estimate the costs and benefits of a wind farm. Based on these 'best-estimates' of costs and benefits and on factor, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, the analysis results suggest that the benefits of a Sandia wind farm are greater than its costs. The analysis techniques used herein are applicable to the economic assessment of most if not all forms of renewable energy.

In response to federal mandates and incentives for renewable energy, Sandia National Laboratories conducted a feasibility study of installing an on-site wind farm on Sandia National Laboratories and Kirtland Air Force Base property. This report describes this preliminary analysis of the costs and benefits of installing and operating a 15-turbine, 30-MW-capacity wind farm that delivers an estimated 16 percent of 2010 onsite demand. The report first describes market and non-market economic costs and benefits associated with operating a wind farm, and then uses a standard life-cycle costing and benefit-cost framework to estimate the costs and benefits of a wind farm. Based on these 'best-estimates' of costs and benefits and on factor, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, the analysis results suggest that the benefits of a Sandia wind farm are greater than its costs. The analysis techniques used herein are applicable to the economic assessment of most if not all forms of renewable energy.

A simple tool for estimating the construction costs of liquid-metal-cooled fast breeder reactors (LMFBRs), 'Simple Cost' was developed in this study. Simple Cost is based on a new estimation formula that can reduce the amount of design data required to estimate construction costs. Consequently, Simple cost can be used to estimate the construction costs of innovative LMFBR concepts for which detailed design has not been carried out. The results of test calculation show that Simple Cost provides costestimations equivalent to those obtained with conventional methods within the range of plant power from 325 to 1500 MWe. Sensitivity analyses for typical design parameters were conducted using Simple Cost. The effects of four major parameters - reactor vessel diameter, core outlet temperature, sodium handling area and number of secondary loops - on the construction costs of LMFBRs were evaluated quantitatively. The results show that the reduction of sodium handling area is particularly effective in reducing construction costs. (author)

The immunization status of children is improved by interventions that increase community demand for compulsory and non-compulsory vaccines, one of the most important interventions related to immunization providers. The aim of this study is to evaluate the activities of immunization providers in terms of activities time and cost, to calculate the immunization doses cost, and to determine the immunization dose errors cost. Time-motion and cost analysis study design was used. Five public health clinics in Mosul-Iraq participated in the study. Fifty (50) vaccine doses were required to estimate activities time and cost. Micro-costing method was used; time and cost data were collected for each immunization-related activity performed by the clinic staff. A stopwatch was used to measure the duration of activity interactions between the parents and clinic staff. The immunization service cost was calculated by multiplying the average salary/min by activity time per minute. 528 immunization cards of Iraqi children were scanned to determine the number and the cost of immunization doses errors (extraimmunization doses and invalid doses). The average time for child registration was 6.7 min per each immunization dose, and the physician spent more than 10 min per dose. Nurses needed more than 5 min to complete child vaccination. The total cost of immunization activities was 1.67 US$ per each immunization dose. Measles vaccine (fifth dose) has a lower price (0.42 US$) than all other immunization doses. The cost of a total of 288 invalid doses was 744.55 US$ and the cost of a total of 195 extra immunization doses was 503.85 US$. The time spent on physicians' activities was longer than that spent on registrars' and nurses' activities. Physician total cost was higher than registrar cost and nurse cost. The total immunization cost will increase by about 13.3% owing to dose errors.

The application of cost behaviour and estimation in organisational decision ... the calculation of standard cost and the provision of relevant costs for pricing and ... Based on these findings, the paper recommends among others the need for the ...

Traditionally, costestimation was performed after the design process, though most opportunities of cost reduction have already passed. Therefore, it is advantageous to be able to estimate the product costs early in the product development cycle. By changing the way costestimation is dealt with, it

Traditionally, costestimation was performed after the design process, though most opportunities of cost reduction have already passed. Therefore, it is advantageous to be able to estimate the product costs early in the product development cycle. By changing the way costestimation is dealt with, it

The Drug Abuse Treatment Cost Analysis Program (DATCAP) was designed in the early 1990s as a research guide to collect and analyze financial data from addiction treatment programs. The addiction research community could clearly benefit from a version of the DATCAP that reduced the time and effort required for its administration without compromising the integrity of its costestimates. This paper introduces the Brief DATCAP and presents some preliminary findings. Initial feedback from respondents suggests that the Brief DATCAP is understandable, and easier and quicker to complete than the DATCAP. More importantly, preliminary results indicate that costestimates from the Brief DATCAP differ from those of the longer DATCAP by less than 2%. These results have important research and policy implications because a shorter yet reasonably accurate cost instrument will enhance the feasibility and precision of future economic evaluations of addiction interventions.

This paper is concerned with a set of parametric estimators that attempt to provide consistent estimates of average medical care costs under conditions of censoring. The main finding is that incorporation of the inverse of the probability of an individual not being censored in the estimating equations is instrumental in deriving unbiased costestimates. The success of the approach is dependent on the amount of available information on the cost history process. The value of this information in...

Few if any published oil production costestimates can be verified as to method and basic data. Using US drilling costs and some assumptions explained in the text, this paper estimates development-operating costs in 41 oil-producing nations, from 1955 to 1985, from publicly available data on drilling. Estimation methods are described in detail so that anyone with access to better information on any item can substitute it to arrive at a better estimate.

Despite an expanding number of centres which provide lung transplantation, information about the incremental costs of lung transplantation is scarce. From 1991 until 1995, in The Netherlands a technology assessment was performed which provided information about the incremental costs of lung transpla

Despite an expanding number of centres which provide lung transplantation, information about the incremental costs of lung transplantation is scarce. From 1991 until 1995, in The Netherlands a technology assessment was performed which provided information about the incremental costs of lung transpla

clarify the costing methods for O&S costs for fixed-wing delivery platforms with the intent of extending the research to other cross- service mission costs...proof-of-concept, this project will concentrate on equating equitable cross- service costs for fixed-wing munitions delivery platforms. The method of... delivery is an essential part of the AoA, especially when the project proposed is the replacement of current missile systems. The services have

... estimate in current dollars, or by using an inflation factor derived from the most recent Implicit Price... must have a detailed written estimate, in current dollars, of the cost of closing the facility in... costestimate for inflation within 60 days prior to the anniversary date of the establishment of...

n an integrated aircraft design and analysis practice, Life Cycle Cost (LCC) is essential for decision making. The LCC of an aircraft is ordinarily partially estimated by emphasizing a specific cost type. However, an overview of the LCC including design and development cost, production cost, operati

n an integrated aircraft design and analysis practice, Life Cycle Cost (LCC) is essential for decision making. The LCC of an aircraft is ordinarily partially estimated by emphasizing a specific cost type. However, an overview of the LCC including design and development cost, production cost,

A methodology to estimate the cost implications of design decisions by integrating cost as a design parameter at an early design stage is presented. The model is developed on a hierarchical basis, the manufacturing cost of aircraft fuselage panels being analysed in this paper. The manufacturing cost

Full Text Available Costestimation is the most important preliminary process in any construction project. Therefore, construction costestimation has the lion’s share of the research effort in construction management. In this paper, we have analysed and studied proposals for construction costestimation for the last 10 years. To implement this survey, we have proposed and applied a methodology that consists of two parts. The first part concerns data collection, for which we have chosen special journals as sources for the surveyed proposals. The second part concerns the analysis of the proposals. To analyse each proposal, the following four questions have been set. Which intelligent technique is used? How have data been collected? How are the results validated? And which construction costestimation factors have been used? From the results of this survey, two main contributions have been produced. The first contribution is the defining of the research gap in this area, which has not been fully covered by previous proposals of construction costestimation. The second contribution of this survey is the proposal and highlighting of future directions for forthcoming proposals, aimed ultimately at finding the optimal construction costestimation. Moreover, we consider the second part of our methodology as one of our contributions in this paper. This methodology has been proposed as a standard benchmark for construction costestimation proposals.

Full Text Available Software costestimation is the important part of software development and used to predict the effort which is mandatory part for development of software system. Feature Model is a set of products that represents set of feature in feature model. Software costestimation is about predicting amount of cost in software development cycle. SCE give analysis both to user as well customer regarding to budging planning. In this paper we have represent a statistical approach for finding costestimation of feature oriented software development. We have used CPM approach from which we will find commonality as well cost of each feature which will be deploy in feature oriented software development.

This paper proposes a method for assembly costestimation in actual manufacture during the design phase using artificial neural networks (ANN). It can support the de signers in cost effectiveness, then help to control the total cost. The method was used in the assembly costestimation of the crucial parts of some railway stock products. As a compari son, we use the linear regression (LR) model in the same field. The result shows that ANN model performs better than the LR model in assembly costestimation.

Process-based costestimation plays a key role in effecting cultural change that integrates distributed science, technology and engineering teams to rapidly create innovative and affordable products. Working together, NASA Glenn Research Center and Boeing Canoga Park have developed a methodology of process-based costestimation bridging the methodologies of high-level parametric models and detailed bottoms-up estimation. The NASA GRC/Boeing CP process-based cost model provides a probabilistic structure of layered cost drivers. High-level inputs characterize mission requirements, system performance, and relevant economic factors. Design alternatives are extracted from a standard, product-specific work breakdown structure to pre-load lower-level cost driver inputs and generate the cost-risk analysis. As product design progresses and matures the lower level more detailed cost drivers can be re-accessed and the projected variation of input values narrowed, thereby generating a progressively more accurate estimate of cost-risk. Incorporated into the process-based cost model are techniques for decision analysis, specifically, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and functional utility analysis. Design alternatives may then be evaluated not just on cost-risk, but also user defined performance and schedule criteria. This implementation of full-trade study support contributes significantly to the realization of the integrated development environment. The process-based costestimation model generates development and manufacturing costestimates. The development team plans to expand the manufacturing process base from approximately 80 manufacturing processes to over 250 processes. Operation and support cost modeling is also envisioned. Process-based estimation considers the materials, resources, and processes in establishing cost-risk and rather depending on weight as an input, actually estimates weight along with cost and schedule.

Approaches are developed for forecasting the cost of major hardware development programs while these programs are in the design and development C/D phase. Three approaches are developed: a schedule assessment technique for bottom-line summary costestimation, a detailed costestimation approach, and an intermediate cost element analysis procedure. The schedule assessment technique was developed using historical cost/schedule performance data.

This document provides overall guidance to assist the NRC in preparing the types of costestimates required by the Regulatory Analysis Guidelines and to assist in the assignment of priorities in resolving generic safety issues. The Handbook presents an overall cost model that allows the cost analyst to develop a chronological series of activities needed to implement a specific regulatory requirement throughout all applicable commercial LWR power plants and to identify the significant cost elements for each activity. References to available cost data are provided along with rules of thumb and cost factors to assist in evaluating each cost element. A suitable code-of-accounts data base is presented to assist in organizing and aggregating costs. Rudimentary cost analysis methods are described to allow the analyst to produce a constant-dollar, lifetime cost for the requirement. A step-by-step example costestimate is included to demonstrate the overall use of the Handbook.

Ontario (Canada) Health System stakeholders support the idea and necessity of the integrated source of data that would include both clinical (e.g. diagnosis, intervention, length of stay, case mix group) and financial (e.g. cost per weighted case, cost per diem) characteristics of the Ontario healthcare system activities at the patient-specific level. At present, the actual patient-level case costs in the explicit form are not available in the financial databases for all hospitals. The goal of this research effort is to develop financial models that will assign each clinical case in the patient-specific data warehouse a dollar value, representing the cost incurred by the Ontario health care facility which treated the patient. Five mathematical models have been developed and verified using real dataset. All models can be classified into two groups based on their underlying method: 1. Models based on using relative intensity weights of the cases, and 2. Models based on using cost per diem.

The Idaho National Laboratory prepared a preliminary technical and functional requirements (T&FR), thermal hydraulic design and costestimate for a lead coolant test facility. The purpose of this small scale facility is to simulate lead coolant fast reactor (LFR) coolant flow in an open lattice geometry core using seven electrical rods and liquid lead or lead-bismuth eutectic coolant. Based on review of current world lead or lead-bismuth test facilities and research needs listed in the Generation IV Roadmap, five broad areas of requirements were identified as listed: (1) Develop and Demonstrate Feasibility of Submerged Heat Exchanger; (2) Develop and Demonstrate Open-lattice Flow in Electrically Heated Core; (3) Develop and Demonstrate Chemistry Control; (4) Demonstrate Safe Operation; and (5) Provision for Future Testing. This paper discusses the preliminary design of systems, thermal hydraulic analysis, and simplified costestimate. The facility thermal hydraulic design is based on the maximum simulated core power using seven electrical heater rods of 420 kW; average linear heat generation rate of 300 W/cm. The core inlet temperature for liquid lead or Pb/Bi eutectic is 4200 C. The design includes approximately seventy-five data measurements such as pressure, temperature, and flow rates. The preliminaryestimatedcost of construction of the facility is $3.7M (in 2006 $). It is also estimated that the facility will require two years to be constructed and ready for operation.

The Idaho National Laboratory prepared a preliminary technical and functional requirements (T and FR), thermal hydraulic design and costestimate for a lead coolant test facility. The purpose of this small scale facility is to simulate lead coolant fast reactor (LFR) coolant flow in an open lattice geometry core using seven electrical rods and liquid lead or lead-bismuth eutectic coolant. Based on review of current world lead or lead-bismuth test facilities and research needs listed in the Generation IV Roadmap, five broad areas of requirements were identified as listed below: Bullet Develop and demonstrate feasibility of submerged heat exchanger. Bullet Develop and demonstrate open-lattice flow in electrically heated core. Bullet Develop and demonstrate chemistry control. Bullet Demonstrate safe operation. Bullet Provision for future testing. This paper discusses the preliminary design of systems, thermal hydraulic analysis, and simplified costestimated. The facility thermal hydraulic design is based on the maximum simulated core power using seven electrical heater rods of 420 kW; average linear heat generation rate of 300 W/cm. The core inlet temperature for liquid lead or Pb/Bi eutectic is 4200 Degree-Sign C. The design includes approximately seventy-five data measurements such as pressure, temperature, and flow rates. The preliminaryestimatedcost of construction of the facility is $3.7M (in 2006 $). It is also estimated that the facility will require two years to be constructed and ready for operation.

... dollars, or by using an inflation factor derived from the most recent Implicit Price Deflator for Gross... active life of the facility, the owner or operator must adjust the closure costestimate for inflation... closure costestimate must be updated for inflation within 30 days after the close of the firm's fiscal...

To make comparative assessments of competing technologies, consistent ground rules must be applied when developing costestimates. This document provides a uniform set of assumptions, ground rules, and requirements that can be used in developing costestimates for advanced nuclear power technologies.

To make comparative assessments of competing technologies, consistent ground rules must be applied when developing costestimates. This document provides a uniform set of assumptions, ground rules, and requirements that can be used in developing costestimates for advanced nuclear power technologies. 10 refs., 8 figs., 32 tabs.

To make comparative assessments of competing technologies, consistent ground rules must be applied when developing costestimates. This document provides a uniform set of assumptions, ground rules, and requirements that can be used in developing costestimates for advanced nuclear power technologies.

Sumatra has a high growth rate electricity energy demand from the first decade in this century. At the medium of this decade the growth is 11% per annum. On the other side capability of Government of Indonesia cq. PLN authority is limited, while many and most old existing power plants will be retired. The electricity demand growth of Sumatra is increasing the fuel consumption for several next decades. Based on several cases by vary growth scenarios and economic parameters, it shown that some kinds of fossil fuel keep to be required until next several decades. Although Sumatra has abundant coal resource, however, the other fuel types such as fuel oil, diesel, gas and nuclear are needed. On the Base Scenario and discount rate of 10%, the Sumatra System will require 11.6 million tones of coal until 2030 producing 866 TWh with cost of US10558 million. Nuclear plants produce about 501 TWh or 32% by cost of US3.1 billion. On the High Scenario and discount rate 10%, the coal consumption becomes 486.6 million tones by fuel cost of US12.7 billion producing 1033 TWh electricity energy. Nuclear fuel cost required in this scenario is US7.06 billion. The other fuel in large amount consumed is natural gas for combined cycle plants by cost of US1.38 billion producing 11.7 TWh of electricity energy on the Base Scenario and discount rate of 10%. In the High Scenario and discount rate 10% coal plants take role in power generation in Sumatra producing about 866 TWh or 54% of electricity energy. Coal consumption will be the highest on the Base Scenario with discount rate of 12% producing 756 TWh and required cost of US17.1 billion. Nuclear plants will not applicable in this scenario due to its un-competitiveness. The fuel cost will depend on nuclear power role in Sumatra system. Fuel cost will increase correspond to the increasing of coal consumption on the case where nuclear power plants not appear.

The purpose of this assumptions document is to provide general scope, strategy, technical basis, schedule and cost assumptions for the Monitored Geologic Repository (MGR) life cycle cost (LCC) estimate and schedule update incorporating information from the Viability Assessment (VA) , License Application Design Selection (LADS), 1999 Update to the Total System Life Cycle Cost (TSLCC) estimate and from other related and updated information. This document is intended to generally follow the assumptions outlined in the previous MGR costestimates and as further prescribed by DOE guidance.

...(2), use the following clause: CostEstimating System Requirements (DEC 2006) (a) Definitions..., totaling $50 million or more for which cost or pricing data were required; or (2) In its fiscal year... more (but less than $50 million) for which cost or pricing data were required; and (ii) Was notified...

Software metric and estimation is base on measuring of software attributes which are typically related to the product, the process and the resources of software development. One of the greatest challenges for software developers is predicting the development effort for a software system based on some metrics for the last decades. Project managers are required to the ability to give a good estimation on software development effort. Most of the traditional techniques such as function points, re...

Cost analyses for zinc bromine, sodium sulfur, and lead acid batteries were reviewed. Zinc bromine and sodium sulfur batteries were selected because of their advanced design nature and the high level of interest in these two technologies. Lead acid batteries were included to establish a baseline representative of a more mature technology.

Underground parking projects are expansive. The capital cost of underground parking project has been, and still is, one of the promoter's main economic concerns. Therefore, the capital costestimation is an essential taskin the early stages pf underground parking projcts. In this context, the promoters mainly use costestimation models, most of them produced by methodologies with lack of precision and with low performances. Over the last yeras Portugal has embarked ona a large programme of...

area managers in the Eastern Arc Mountains (EAMs) of Tanzania to establish how much is currently spent on reserve management and how much is required to meet conservation objectives. We use an information theoretic approach to model spatial variation in these costs using a range of plausible, spatially......Despite chronic underfunding for conservation and the recognition that funds must be invested wisely, few studies have analysed the direct costs of managing protected areas at the spatial scales needed to inform local site management. Using a questionnaire survey we collected data from protected...... explicit predictor variables, including a novel measure of anthropogenic pressure that measures the human pressure that accrues to any point in the landscape by taking into account all people in the landscape, inversely weighted by their distance to that point. Our models explain over 75% of variation...

prototype program for the first few aircraft is substantially lower because many costs are deferred until a decision to produce for inventory is made...overhead rates. It is necessary to begin with labor hours and convert tbam into dollars. That conversion can result in a serious misstatement of...general and administrative expense (G&A), miscellaneous direct charges (overtime premium, travel, per diem, miscellaneous taxes , etc.), and, in the

COCOMOST is a computer program for use in estimating software development costs. The goal in the development of COCOMOST was to increase estimation accuracy in three ways: (1) develop a set of sensitivity software tools that return not only estimates of costs but also the estimation error; (2) using the sensitivity software tools, precisely define the quantities of data needed to adequately tune costestimation models; and (3) build a repository of software-cost-estimation information that NASA managers can retrieve to improve the estimates of costs of developing software for their project. COCOMOST implements a methodology, called '2cee', in which a unique combination of well-known pre-existing data-mining and software-development- effort-estimation techniques are used to increase the accuracy of estimates. COCOMOST utilizes multiple models to analyze historical data pertaining to software-development projects and performs an exhaustive data-mining search over the space of model parameters to improve the performances of effort-estimation models. Thus, it is possible to both calibrate and generate estimates at the same time. COCOMOST is written in the C language for execution in the UNIX operating system.

This article presents an example of estimatingcosts in the early phase of the project using fuzzy case-based reasoning. The fragment of database containing descriptions and unit cost of sports facilities was shown. The formulas used in Case Based Reasoning method were presented, too. The article presents similarity measurement using a few formulas, including fuzzy similarity. The outcome of cost calculations based on CBR method was presented as a fuzzy number of unit cost of construction work.

Several advanced power plant concepts are currently under development. These include the Modular High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactors, the Advanced Liquid Metal Reactor and the Advanced Light Water Reactors. One measure of the attractiveness of a new concept is its cost. Invariably, the cost of a new type of power plant will be compared with other alternative forms of electrical generation. This report provides a common starting point, whereby the costestimates for the various power plants to be considered are developed with common assumptions and ground rules. Comparisons can then be made on a consistent basis. This is the second update of these costestimate guidelines. Changes have been made to make the guidelines more current (January 1, 1992) and in response to suggestions made as a result of the use of the previous report. The principal changes are that the reference site has been changed from a generic Northeast (Middletown) site to a more central site (EPRI`s East/West Central site) and that reference bulk commodity prices and labor productivity rates have been added. This report is designed to provide a framework for the preparation and reporting of costs. The costestimates will consist of the overnight construction cost, the total plant capital cost, the operation and maintenance costs, the fuel costs, decommissioning costs and the power production or busbar generation cost.

Full Text Available The accuracy of the costestimates is very important in the initial stage because it will determine the viability of the project and provide the project budget. Therefore, Inaccuracy of the costestimates beyond the acceptable range will cause the cost overrun in the later stage. This research aims to recommend BIM to be applied as a part of the cost management process and to improve the costestimating at the initial/design stage. In addition, this research will investigate the factors influencing the accuracy, why BIM not been applied to reduce the inaccuracy and how BIM can be integrated into costestimates at the initial / design stage. This research was carried out via literature review, questionnaire survey and semi-structured interview. It was indicated that insufficient information related to the project, poor communication between project team and complexity of design and construction are the three most factors influenced the accuracy of costestimates. While collaborating and sharing information between the project team, and investment in software and training are the barriers in implementing BIM. The research also found out that BIM is an integrated multi-disciplinary tool that serves architecture, structural and M&E. In addition, the capability of BIM in assisting costestimates allow QS to focus more value adding activities in estimating such as: identifying construction assemblies, pricing and factoring risks, which are essential for high quality estimates. In conclusion, with the capability of BIM and its integration will help to minimize the error and enhance the project costestimates in the future.

In the product development cycle several engineering tasks like design, process planning and production planning have to be executed. The execution of these tasks mainly involves information processing and decision-making. Because costs is an important factor in manufacturing, adequate information about costs is extremely valuable for all engineering tasks. Therefore, a costestimation system for the generation of cost information and for cost control, integrated in the product development cy...

The cost of developing computer software continues to consume an increasing portion of many organizations' total budgets, both in the public and private sector. As this trend develops, the capability to produce reliable estimates of the effort and schedule required to develop a candidate software product takes on increasing importance. The COSTMODL program was developed to provide an in-house capability to perform development costestimates for NASA software projects. COSTMODL is an automated software development costestimation tool which incorporates five costestimation algorithms including the latest models for the Ada language and incrementally developed products. The principal characteristic which sets COSTMODL apart from other software costestimation programs is its capacity to be completely customized to a particular environment. The estimation equations can be recalibrated to reflect the programmer productivity characteristics demonstrated by the user's organization, and the set of significant factors which effect software development costs can be customized to reflect any unique properties of the user's development environment. Careful use of a capability such as COSTMODL can significantly reduce the risk of cost overruns and failed projects.

We present a parametric costestimate for the Kilometric Optical Interferometer (KOI) in a classical array configuration: 24 telescopes, 4-meter primary mirror, up to 1 km baseline. The parametric costestimate is based on available cost information from the Magdalena Ridge Observatory (MRO) Interferometer at New Mexico Tech. A Kilometric Optical Interferometer based on a classical array concept has an estimated construction cost between 1B and 3B if it would be built today (2008 dollars and technology). The implication of the estimated construction cost is that cost reductions are critical in the planning phase to bring the cost within a reasonable envelope. Hence we propose to set a budget ceiling that seems feasible given the support to be expected from the scientific community and funding agencies. Given a budget ceiling, a design-to-cost process should be followed. We propose to set a construction phase budget cap of $800M (2008 dollars) for KOI as an initial goal. Narrowing down of the science goals in combination with technology development to reduce cost and technological complexity are the main areas of activities for the next decade. We propose to establish a virtual project office to coordinate these activities.

Full Text Available Abstract Information on the unit cost of inpatient and outpatient care is an essential element for costing, budgeting and economic-evaluation exercises. Many countries lack reliable estimates, however. WHO has recently undertaken an extensive effort to collect and collate data on the unit cost of hospitals and health centres from as many countries as possible; so far, data have been assembled from 49 countries, for various years during the period 1973–2000. The database covers a total of 2173 country-years of observations. Large gaps remain, however, particularly for developing countries. Although the long-term solution is that all countries perform their own costing studies, the question arises whether it is possible to predict unit costs for different countries in a standardized way for short-term use. The purpose of the work described in this paper, a modelling exercise, was to use the data collected across countries to predict unit costs in countries for which data are not yet available, with the appropriate uncertainty intervals. The model presented here forms part of a series of models used to estimate unit costs for the WHO-CHOICE project. The methods and the results of the model, however, may be used to predict a number of different types of country-specific unit costs, depending on the purpose of the exercise. They may be used, for instance, to estimate the costs per bed-day at different capacity levels; the "hotel" component of cost per bed-day; or unit costs net of particular components such as drugs. In addition to reporting estimates for selected countries, the paper shows that unit costs of hospitals vary within countries, sometimes by an order of magnitude. Basing cost-effectiveness studies or budgeting exercises on the results of a study of a single facility, or even a small group of facilities, is likely to be misleading.

Information on the unit cost of inpatient and outpatient care is an essential element for costing, budgeting and economic-evaluation exercises. Many countries lack reliable estimates, however. WHO has recently undertaken an extensive effort to collect and collate data on the unit cost of hospitals and health centres from as many countries as possible; so far, data have been assembled from 49 countries, for various years during the period 1973-2000. The database covers a total of 2173 country-years of observations. Large gaps remain, however, particularly for developing countries. Although the long-term solution is that all countries perform their own costing studies, the question arises whether it is possible to predict unit costs for different countries in a standardized way for short-term use. The purpose of the work described in this paper, a modelling exercise, was to use the data collected across countries to predict unit costs in countries for which data are not yet available, with the appropriate uncertainty intervals.The model presented here forms part of a series of models used to estimate unit costs for the WHO-CHOICE project. The methods and the results of the model, however, may be used to predict a number of different types of country-specific unit costs, depending on the purpose of the exercise. They may be used, for instance, to estimate the costs per bed-day at different capacity levels; the "hotel" component of cost per bed-day; or unit costs net of particular components such as drugs.In addition to reporting estimates for selected countries, the paper shows that unit costs of hospitals vary within countries, sometimes by an order of magnitude. Basing cost-effectiveness studies or budgeting exercises on the results of a study of a single facility, or even a small group of facilities, is likely to be misleading.

The resource cost model approach makes the programmatic aspects of special education explicit and links these with associated costs. It facilitates planning for education of handicapped children. An effective costestimation plan was necessary because of recent political and legal mandates which established the educational rights of the…

A high-level parametric mathematical model for estimating the costs of testing rocket engines and components at Stennis Space Center has been implemented as a Microsoft Excel program that generates multiple spreadsheets. The model and the program are both denoted, simply, the CostEstimating Model (CEM). The inputs to the CEM are the parameters that describe particular tests, including test types (component or engine test), numbers and duration of tests, thrust levels, and other parameters. The CEM estimates anticipated total project costs for a specific test. Estimates are broken down into testing categories based on a work-breakdown structure and a cost-element structure. A notable historical assumption incorporated into the CEM is that total labor times depend mainly on thrust levels. As a result of a recent modification of the CEM to increase the accuracy of predicted labor times, the dependence of labor time on thrust level is now embodied in third- and fourth-order polynomials.

Failure to consider the costs of adaptation strategies can be seen by decision makers as a barrier to implementing coastal protection measures. In order to validate adaptation strategies to sea-level rise in the form of coastal protection, a consistent and repeatable assessment of the costs is necessary. This paper significantly extends current knowledge on costestimates by developing - and implementing using real coastal dike data - probabilistic functions of dike costs. Data from Canada and the Netherlands are analysed and related to published studies from the US, UK, and Vietnam in order to provide a reproducible estimate of typical sea dike costs and their uncertainty. We plot the costs divided by dike length as a function of height and test four different regression models. Our analysis shows that a linear function without intercept is sufficient to model the costs, i.e. fixed costs and higher-order contributions such as that due to the volume of core fill material are less significant. We also characterise the spread around the regression models which represents an uncertainty stemming from factors beyond dike length and height. Drawing an analogy with project cost overruns, we employ log-normal distributions and calculate that the range between 3x and x/3 contains 95 % of the data, where x represents the corresponding regression value. We compare our estimates with previously published unit costs for other countries. We note that the unit costs depend not only on the country and land use (urban/non-urban) of the sites where the dikes are being constructed but also on characteristics included in the costs, e.g. property acquisition, utility relocation, and project management. This paper gives decision makers an order of magnitude on the protection costs, which can help to remove potential barriers to developing adaptation strategies. Although the focus of this research is sea dikes, our approach is applicable and transferable to other adaptation measures.

This independent review is the conclusion arrived at from data collection, document reviews, interviews and deliberation from December 2010 through April 2011 and the technical potential of Hydrogen Production CostEstimate Using Biomass Gasification. The Panel reviewed the current H2A case (Version 2.12, Case 01D) for hydrogen production via biomass gasification and identified four principal components of hydrogen levelized cost: CapEx; feedstock costs; project financing structure; efficiency/hydrogen yield. The panel reexamined the assumptions around these components and arrived at new estimates and approaches that better reflect the current technology and business environments.

This independent review is the conclusion arrived at from data collection, document reviews, interviews and deliberation from December 2010 through April 2011 and the technical potential of Hydrogen Production CostEstimate Using Biomass Gasification. The Panel reviewed the current H2A case (Version 2.12, Case 01D) for hydrogen production via biomass gasification and identified four principal components of hydrogen levelized cost: CapEx; feedstock costs; project financing structure; efficiency/hydrogen yield. The panel reexamined the assumptions around these components and arrived at new estimates and approaches that better reflect the current technology and business environments.

Independent review report of the methodology used by TIAX to estimate the cost of producing PEM fuel cells using 2005 cell stack technology. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Hydrogen, Fuel Cells and Infrastructure Technologies Program Manager asked the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to commission an independent review of the 2005 TIAX cost analysis for fuel cell production. The NREL Systems Integrator is responsible for conducting independent reviews of progress toward meeting the DOE Hydrogen Program (the Program) technical targets. An important technical target of the Program is the proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cell cost in terms of dollars per kilowatt ($/kW). The Program's Multi-Year Program Research, Development, and Demonstration Plan established $125/kW as the 2005 technical target. Over the last several years, the Program has contracted with TIAX, LLC (TIAX) to produce estimates of the high volume cost of PEM fuel cell production for transportation use. Since no manufacturer is yet producing PEM fuel cells in the quantities needed for an initial hydrogen-based transportation economy, these estimates are necessary for DOE to gauge progress toward meeting its targets. For a PEM fuel cell system configuration developed by Argonne National Laboratory, TIAX estimated the total cost to be $108/kW, based on assumptions of 500,000 units per year produced with 2005 cell stack technology, vertical integration of cell stack manufacturing, and balance-of-plant (BOP) components purchased from a supplier network. Furthermore, TIAX conducted a Monte Carlo analysis by varying ten key parameters over a wide range of values and estimated with 98% certainty that the mean PEM fuel cell system cost would be below DOE's 2005 target of $125/kW. NREL commissioned DJW TECHNOLOGY, LLC to form an Independent Review Team (the Team) of industry fuel cell experts and to evaluate the costestimation process and the results reported by TIAX. The results of

Full Text Available Two independent random samples are drawn from two Binomial populations with parameters theta1 and theta2 respectively. Ahmed (1991 considered a preliminary test estimator based on maximum likelihood estimator for estimating theta1 when it is suspected that theta1=theta2. In this paper we combine minimum phi-divergence estimators as well as phi-divergence test statistics in order to define a preliminary phi-divergence test estimators. These new estimators are compared with the classical estimator as well as the pooled estimator.

Full Text Available Cost is the fundamental component for any construction project. However, cost overrun is observed as one of the most frequently occurring issues in construction projects worldwide and need to be studied more to alleviate this issue in the future. This trend is more severe in developing countries where these overruns sometimes exceeds 100% of the anticipated cost of the project. Like other countries, construction industry in Malaysia is also facing a lot of challenges such as the delay to complete the project in time, the expenditure exceeding the budget, the building defects and over dependent of foreign workers. The ultimate effects of project delay also results in exceeding cost. This leads to serious need of addressing the critical issue of construction cost overrun. To avoid construction cost overrun, very first and most important step is to identify and understand the causes and factors responsible for that. Hence, this paper is aimed to identify various factors responsible for construction cost overrun. Through a comprehensive study of literature review, common factors causing cost overrun resulting in identification of 78 factors were mapped in frequency table. A questionnaire survey and interviews were carried out amongst selected experienced personnel for expert opinion to identify the significant factors causing cost overrun in Malaysia. Five respondents were selected from each of the respondents groups including client, consultant and contractor. The questionnaire responses were analyzed by average index method, which resulted in identification of 59 common factors causing construction cost overrun in Malaysia. Results show that poor design & delays in Design, unrealistic contract duration & requirements imposed, lack of experience, late delivery of materials & equipment, relationship between management & labour, delay preparation & approval of drawings, inadequate planning & scheduling, poor site management & supervision and

Traffic accidents are the reason for 25% of unnatural deaths in Iran. The main objective of this study is to find a simple model for the estimation of economic costs especially in Islamic countries (like Iran) in a straightforward manner. The model can show the magnitude of traffic accident costs with monetary equivalent. Data were collected from different sources that included traffic police records, insurance companies and hospitals. The conceptual framework, in our study, was based on the method of Ayati. He used this method for the estimation of economic costs in Iran. We promoted his method via minimum variables. Our final model has only three available variables which can be taken from insurance companies and police records. The running model showed that the traffic accident costs were US$2.2 million in 2007 for our case study route.

The cost-efficacy control of maintenance operations in developing countries has become critical to the infrastructure asset management after highway construction.To effectively manage numerous projects annually with limited resources,it is necessary to reasonably estimatecosts during the process of making maintenance project selection decisions.This study outlines the modeling of case-based reasoning (CBR) estimation that compares and retrieves the most similar instance across the case library.Four CBR ap- proaches were presented and assessed in terms of their mean absolute prediction error rates.The resulting model demonstrates the ability of estimating the pavement maintenance project costs with the satisfactory accuracy at the early stages.

Full Text Available One of the key areas being emphasis in ISO 9001 Quality Management System (QMS is performance measurement towards continual improvement. Among the primary measuring tools is quality cost approach. Quality cost has been well practice in manufacturing sector but slowly gain its importance in construction industry. In fact Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK has reckoned quality cost as one of the tool and technique in few of its management processes. In view of such circumstances that has prompted an effort to undertake a study to ascertain the level of knowledge and practice on quality cost in Malaysian construction landscape. The targeted group of respondents was the personnel in the project management team. Capitalizing Construction Industry Development Board (CIDB National Electronic Tendering Initiatives (NETI road shows which were held in year 2007 throughout the country, the author was able to garner 263 respondents representing the project management team. Subsequently the data gathered from the completed forms were analyzed using Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS software. General findings indicated that the level of knowledge and practice on quality cost among the project management team were relatively low. One of the main contributing factors was poor knowledge in the area related to quality cost. Despite of such scenario most of the respondents showed their interest in acquiring knowledge in the field of quality cost. Hence quality cost approach is at the infancy stage in Malaysian construction industry.

The research described in this report attempts to estimate the costs of providing an appropriate education to all school-aged handicapped children by 1980-81. The study begins by addressing the aspects of special education that will help to predict future costs--patterns of growth to the present, legal and political mandates, the nature of various…

account for how costestimating for autonomy is different than current methodologies and to suggest ways it can be addressed through the integration and...required effort for a UMAS, we use the Constructive Systems Engineering Cost Model (COSYSMO). This parametric model’s output accounts for integrating...Fabrycky, 2003). The current practice in many organizations is to focus most of the cost of product development and when the project reaches the T

Racial discrimination is a pervasive social problem in several advanced countries such as the U.S., U.K., and Australia. Public health research also indicates a range of associations between exposure to racial discrimination and negative health, particularly, mental health including depression, anxiety, and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). However, the direct negative health impact of racial discrimination has not been costed so far although economists have previously estimated indirect non-health related productivity costs. In this study, we estimate the burden of disease due to exposure to racial discrimination and measure the cost of this exposure. Using prevalence surveys and data on the association of racial discrimination with health outcomes from a global meta-analysis, we apply a cost of illness method to measure the impact of racial discrimination. This estimate indicates the direct health cost attributable to racial discrimination and we convert the estimates to monetary values based on conventional parameters. Racial discrimination costs the Australian economy 235,452 in disability adjusted life years lost, equivalent to $37.9 billion per annum, roughly 3.02% of annual gross domestic product (GDP) over 2001-11, indicating a sizeable loss for the economy. Substantial cost is incurred due to increased prevalence of racial discrimination as a result of its association with negative health outcomes (e.g. depression, anxiety and PTSD). This implies that potentially significant cost savings can be made through measures that target racial discrimination. Our research contributes to the debate on the social impact of racial discrimination, with implications for policies and efforts addressing it.

This report was prepared for the Commonwealth of Massachusetts by the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, National Low-Level Waste Management Program. It presents planning life-cycle cost (PLCC) estimates for four sizes of in-state low-level radioactive waste (LLRW) disposal facilities. These PLCC estimates include preoperational and operational expenditures, all support facilities, materials, labor, closure costs, and long-term institutional care and monitoring costs. It is intended that this report bc used as a broad decision making tool for evaluating one of the several complex factors that must be examined when deciding between various LLRW management options -- relative costs. Because the underlying assumptions of these analyses will change as the Board decides how it will manage Massachusett`s waste and the specific characteristics any disposal facility will have, the results of this study are not absolute and should only be used to compare the relative costs of the options presented. The disposal technology selected for this analysis is aboveground earth-mounded vaults. These vaults are reinforced concrete structures where low-level waste is emplaced and later covered with a multi-layered earthen cap. The ``base case`` PLCC estimate was derived from a preliminary feasibility design developed for the Illinois Low-Level Radioactive Waste Disposal Facility. This PLCC report describes facility operations and details the procedure used to develop the base case PLCC estimate for each facility component and size. Sensitivity analyses were performed on the base case PLCC estimate by varying several factors to determine their influences upon the unit disposal costs. The report presents the results of the sensitivity analyses for the five most significant cost factors.

Cost data in healthcare are often skewed across patients. Thus, researchers have used either a log transformation of the dependent variable or generalized linear models with log links. However, frequently these non-linear approaches produce non-linear incremental effects: the incremental effects differ at different levels of the covariates, and this can cause dramatic effects on predicted cost. The aim of this study was to demonstrate that when modelling skewed data, log link functions or log transformations are not necessary and have unintended effects. We simulated cost data using a linear model with a 'treatment', a covariate and a specified number of observations with excessive cost (skewed data). We also used actual data from a pain-relief intervention among hip-replacement patients. We then estimatedcost models using various functional approaches suggested to handle skew and calculated the incremental cost of treatment at various levels of the covariate(s). All of these methods provide unbiased estimates of the incremental effect of treatment on costs at the mean level of the covariate. However, in some log-based models the implied incremental treatment cost doubled between extreme low and high values of the covariate in a manner inconsistent with the underlying linear model. Although specification checks are always needed, the potential for misleading incremental estimates resulting from log-based specifications is often ignored. In this era of cost containment and comparisons of treatment effectiveness it is vital that researchers and policymakers understand the limitation of the inferences that can be made using log-based models for patients whose characteristics differ from the sample mean.

Quantum parameter estimation plays a key role in many fields like quantum computation, communication, and metrology. Optimal estimation allows one to achieve the most precise parameter estimates, but requires accurate knowledge of the model. Any inevitable uncertainty in the model parameters may heavily degrade the quality of the estimate. It is therefore desired to make the estimation process robust to such uncertainties. Robust estimation was previously studied for a varying phase, where the goal was to estimate the phase at some time in the past, using the measurement results from both before and after that time within a fixed time interval up to current time. Here, we consider a robust guaranteed-cost filter yielding robust estimates of a varying phase in real time, where the current phase is estimated using only past measurements. Our filter minimizes the largest (worst-case) variance in the allowable range of the uncertain model parameter(s) and this determines its guaranteed cost. It outperforms in the worst case the optimal Kalman filter designed for the model with no uncertainty, which corresponds to the center of the possible range of the uncertain parameter(s). Moreover, unlike the Kalman filter, our filter in the worst case always performs better than the best achievable variance for heterodyne measurements, which we consider as the tolerable threshold for our system. Furthermore, we consider effective quantum efficiency and effective noise power, and show that our filter provides the best results by these measures in the worst case.

Full Text Available In construction cost management system, normally earned value management (EVM is applied as an efficient control approach in both status detection and estimation at completion (EAC cost forecasting. The traditional approaches in EAC predictions normally extend the current situation of a project to the future by employing pervious performance factor. The proposed approach of this paper considers both qualitative and quantitative factors affecting the EAC prediction. The proposed approach of this research not only estimates the completion of the project, but also it can generate accurate forecast for the entire future periods using a fuzzy neural network model. The model is also implemented for a real-world case study and yields encouraging preliminary results.

Disability is shown to be both a cause and a consequence of poverty. However, relatively little research has investigated the economic cost of living with a disability. This study reports the results of a study on the extra cost of living with disability in Vietnam in 2011. The study was carried out in eight cities/provinces in Vietnam, including Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh cities (two major metropolitan in Vietnam) and six provinces from each of the six socio-economic regions in Vietnam. Costs are estimated using the standard of living approach whereby the difference in incomes between people with disability and those without disability for a given standard of living serves as a proxy for the cost of living with disability. The extra cost of living with disability in Vietnam accounted for about 8.8-9.5% of annual household income, or valued about US$200-218. Communication difficulty was shown to result in highest additional cost of living with disability and self-care difficulty was shown to lead to the lowest levels of extra of living cost. The extra cost of living with disability increased as people had more severe impairment. Interventions to promote the economic security of livelihood for people with disabilities are needed.

An enrollment-driven model for estimating instructional costs is presented in this paper as developed by the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE). After stating the principles of the WICHE planning system (i.e., various categories of data are gathered, segmented, and then cross-tabulated against one another to yield certain…

In the literature of higher education cost function study, enough knowledge is created in the area of economy scale in the context of developed countries but the knowledge of input demand is lacking. On the other hand, empirical knowledge in the context of developing countries is very meagre. The paper fills up the knowledge gap, estimating a…

There are many methods for estimating size, effort, schedule and other cost aspects of IS projects, but only one specifically developed for Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) [67] and none for simultaneous, interdependent ERP projects in a cross-organizational context. The objective of this paper is

This article presents a novel application of known data mining algorithms to the problem of estimating the cost of ship development and construction. The work is a product of North Atlantic Treaty Organization Research and Technology Organization Systems Analysis and Studies 076 Task Group “NATO Ind

This note describes the design and costestimation for two horizontal bending magnets (PXMCXAFWAC) needed upstream of the ASACUSA experiment of the CERN AD (Antiproton Decelerator) Machine. These magnets are to replace the two corrector magnets (PXMCCAVWAP) which do not fulfil the requirements in terms of free horizontal aperture and field quality.

A construction project requires collaboration of different organizations such as owner, designer, contractor, and resource suppliers. These organizations need to exchange information to improve their teamwork. Understanding the information created in other organizations requires specialized human resources. Construction costestimating is one of…

There are many methods for estimating size, effort, schedule and other cost aspects of IS projects, but only one specifically developed for Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) [67] and none for simultaneous, interdependent ERP projects in a cross-organizational context. The objective of this paper is

A construction project requires collaboration of different organizations such as owner, designer, contractor, and resource suppliers. These organizations need to exchange information to improve their teamwork. Understanding the information created in other organizations requires specialized human resources. Construction costestimating is one of…

In the literature of higher education cost function study, enough knowledge is created in the area of economy scale in the context of developed countries but the knowledge of input demand is lacking. On the other hand, empirical knowledge in the context of developing countries is very meagre. The paper fills up the knowledge gap, estimating a…

The Sherpa Automated Mine Cost Engineering System is a menu-driven software package designed to estimate capital and operating costs for proposed surface mining operations. The program is engineering (as opposed to statistically) based, meaning that all equipment, manpower, and supply requirements are determined from deposit geology, project design and mine production information using standard engineering techniques. These requirements are used in conjunction with equipment, supply, and labor cost databases internal to the program to estimate all associated costs. Because virtually all on-site cost parameters are interrelated within the program, Sherpa provides an efficient means of examining the impact of changes in the equipment mix on total capital and operating costs. If any aspect of the operation is changed, Sherpa immediately adjusts all related aspects as necessary. For instance, if the user wishes to examine the cost ramifications of selecting larger trucks, the program not only considers truck purchase and operation costs, it also automatically and immediately adjusts excavator requirements, operator and mechanic needs, repair facility size, haul road construction and maintenance costs, and ancillary equipment specifications.

Full Text Available In the modern business and management of business processes, the standardization of procedures allows the creation of added value, increasing competitiveness and success in the business of an organization. Evaluation of the budget for software development is crucial to the success of an IT project, because the inability to make a realistic assessment leads to inadequate project plans, customer dissatisfaction, poor quality of software products, and reduced profits. In order to minimize such situations, making accurate and reliable software costestimation should be carried out at all stages of the project life cycle. Although hundreds of research articles focusing on the application of different methods of budget estimates of the software product have been published so far, there is no comprehensive review of the current situation or review of research trends in the budget estimates of the software product. This paper aims to create a framework for estimation of costs of development of software products by providing an overview of the most influential researchers, the most influential articles published in the WoS database, the most used keywords for searching the articles, as well as a review of the estimation techniques used in budget estimates of the software product.

In modern society, a plastic part has its own important position. To the managers and decision-makers in the field of plastic component, how to decide the manufacturing cost of the injection part or injection mold as quickly as possible is most valuable. Costestimation formulae (CEF) are the most common method to evaluate the cost of injection part/mold, which is similar to our ordinary thinking. In this paper, a CEF method used by Dr. Weiyi Hu in Massachusetts University is first discussed. To the problems existed in the formulae, we propose an improved algorithm. This algorithm can be used to estimate the manufacturing cost of injection part/mold accurately in the early design stage.

The Oxford House model for substance abuse recovery has potential economic advantages associated with the low cost of opening up and maintaining the settings. In the present study, annual program costs per person were estimated for Oxford House based on federal loan information and data collected from Oxford House Inc. In addition, annual treatment and incarceration costs were approximated based on participant data prior to Oxford House residence in conjunction with normative costs for these settings. Societal costs associated with the Oxford House program were relatively low, whereas estimatedcosts associated with inpatient and incarceration history were high. The implications of these findings are discussed.

Nuclear power plant licensees are required to submit to the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) for review their decommissioning costestimates. This user`s manual and the accompanying CostEstimating Computer Program (CECP) software provide a cost-calculating methodology to the NRC staff that will assist them in assessing the adequacy of the licensee submittals. The CECP, designed to be used on a personal computer, provides estimates for the cost of decommissioning boiling water reactor (BWR) power stations to the point of license termination. Such costestimates include component, piping, and equipment removal costs; packaging costs; decontamination costs; transportation costs; burial costs; and manpower costs. In addition to costs, the CECP also calculates burial volumes, person-hours, crew-hours, and exposure person-hours associated with decommissioning.

With the issuance of the Decommissioning Rule (July 27, 1988), nuclear power plant licensees are required to submit to the U.S. Regulatory Commission (NRC) for review, decommissioning plans and costestimates. This user`s manual and the accompanying CostEstimating Computer Program (CECP) software provide a cost-calculating methodology to the NRC staff that will assist them in assessing the adequacy of the licensee submittals. The CECP, designed to be used on a personal computer, provides estimates for the cost of decommissioning BWR power stations to the point of license termination. Such costestimates include component, piping, and equipment removal costs; packaging costs; decontamination costs; transportation costs; burial costs; and manpower costs. In addition to costs, the CECP also calculates burial volumes, person-hours, crew-hours, and exposure person-hours associated with decommissioning.

Laser additive manufacturing (LAM) is a layer wise fabrication method in which a laser beam melts metallic powder to form solid objects. Although 3D printing has been invented 30 years ago, the industrial use is quite limited whereas the introduction of cheap consumer 3D printers, in recent years, has familiarized the 3D printing. Interest is focused more and more in manufacturing of functional parts. Aim of this study is to define and discuss the current economic opportunities and restrictions of LAM process. Manufacturing costs were studied with different build scenarios each with estimatedcost structure by calculated build time and calculating the costs of the machine, material and energy with optimized machine utilization. All manufacturing and time simulations in this study were carried out with a research machine equal to commercial EOS M series equipment. The study shows that the main expense in LAM is the investment cost of the LAM machine, compared to which the relative proportions of the energy and material costs are very low. The manufacturing time per part is the key factor to optimize costs of LAM.

The electricity consumption nowadays has increased due to the increasing development of portable electronic devices. The development of low cost micro gas turbine engine, which is designed for the purposes of new electrical generation Micro turbines are a relatively new distributed generation technology being used for stationary energy generation applications. They are a type of combustion turbine that produces both heat and electricity on a relatively small scaled.. This research are focusing of developing a low-cost micro gas turbine engine based on automotive turbocharger and to evaluation the performance of the developed micro gas turbine. The test rig engine basically was constructed using a Nissan 45V3 automotive turbocharger, containing compressor and turbine assemblies on a common shaft. The operating performance of developed micro gas turbine was analyzed experimentally with the increment of 5000 RPM on the compressor speed. The speed of the compressor was limited at 70000 RPM and only 1000 degree Celsius at maximum were allowed to operate the system in order to avoid any failure on the turbocharger bearing and the other components. Performance parameters such as inlet temperature, compressor temperature, exhaust gas temperature, and fuel and air flow rates were measured. The data was collected electronically by 74972A data acquisition and evaluated manually by calculation. From the independent test shows the result of the system, The speed of the LP turbine can be reached up to 35000 RPM and produced 18.5kw of mechanical power.

US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This is a preliminaryestimate of natural resource damages associated with uncontrolled release of hazardous materials at the Rocky Mountain Arsenal Superfund Site...

A Hysys simulation of a CO2 capture process by absorption in a monoethanol amine (MEA) solution from the flue gas from a 500 MW natural gas power plant has been developed as a verification of earlier simulations at TUC. The major improvements in this work are new calculation methods for make-up water and MEA and simulation of a direct contact cooler (DCC) unit. For costestimation purposes, calculations of overall heat transfer coefficient and correction factor for heat exchan...

At the request of GDF Suez, a Rough Order of Magnitude (ROM) costestimate was prepared for the design, construction, testing, and data analysis for an experimental series of large-scale (Liquefied Natural Gas) LNG spills on land and water that would result in the largest pool fires and vapor dispersion events ever conducted. Due to the expected cost of this large, multi-year program, the authors utilized Sandia's structured costestimating methodology. This methodology insures that the efforts identified can be performed for the cost proposed at a plus or minus 30 percent confidence. The scale of the LNG spill, fire, and vapor dispersion tests proposed by GDF could produce hazard distances and testing safety issues that need to be fully explored. Based on our evaluations, Sandia can utilize much of our existing fire testing infrastructure for the large fire tests and some small dispersion tests (with some modifications) in Albuquerque, but we propose to develop a new dispersion testing site at our remote test area in Nevada because of the large hazard distances. While this might impact some testing logistics, the safety aspects warrant this approach. In addition, we have included a proposal to study cryogenic liquid spills on water and subsequent vaporization in the presence of waves. Sandia is working with DOE on applications that provide infrastructure pertinent to wave production. We present an approach to conduct repeatable wave/spill interaction testing that could utilize such infrastructure.

The speed in which the processes used in software development field have changed makes it very difficult the task of forecasting the overall costs for a software project. By many researchers, this task has been considered unachievable, but there is a group of scientist for which this task can be solved using the already known mathematical methods (e.g. multiple linear regressions) and the new techniques as genetic programming and neural networks. The paper presents a solution for building a model for the costestimation models in the software project management using genetic algorithms starting from the PROMISE datasets related COCOMO 81 model. In the first part of the paper, a summary of the major achievements in the research area of finding a model for estimating the overall project costs is presented together with the description of the existing software development process models. In the last part, a basic proposal of a mathematical model of a genetic programming is proposed including here the description of the chosen fitness function and chromosome representation. The perspective of model described it linked with the current reality of the software development considering as basis the software product life cycle and the current challenges and innovations in the software development area. Based on the author's experiences and the analysis of the existing models and product lifecycle it was concluded that estimation models should be adapted with the new technologies and emerging systems and they depend largely by the chosen software development method.

A Parametric Costing Model has been created and evaluate as a first step in quantitatively understanding important design options for the Accelerator Production of Tritium (APT) concept. This model couples key economic and technical elements of APT in a two-parameter search of beam energy and beam power that minimizes costs within a range of operating constraints. The costing and engineering depth of the Parametric Costing Model is minimal at the present {open_quotes}entry level{close_quotes}, and is intended only to demonstrate a potential for a more-detailed, cost-based integrating design tool. After describing the present basis of the Parametric Costing Model and giving an example of a single parametric scaling run derived therefrom, the impacts of choices related to resistive versus superconducting accelerator structures and cost of electricity versus plant availability ({open_quotes}load curve{close_quotes}) are reported. Areas of further development and application are suggested.

Understanding the costs associated with blood products requires sophisticated knowledge about transfusion medicine and is attracting the attention of clinical and administrative healthcare sectors worldwide. To improve outcomes, blood usage must be optimized and expenditures controlled so that resources may be channeled toward other diagnostic, therapeutic, and technological initiatives. Estimating blood costs, however, is a complex undertaking, surpassing simple supply versus demand economics. Shrinking donor availability and application of a precautionary principle to minimize transfusion risks are factors that continue to drive the cost of blood products upward. Recognizing that historical accounting attempts to determine blood costs have varied in scope, perspective, and methodology, new approaches have been initiated to identify all potential cost elements related to blood and blood product administration. Activities are also under way to tie these elements together in a comprehensive and practical model that will be applicable to all single-donor blood products without regard to practice type (e.g., academic, private, multi- or single-center clinic). These initiatives, their rationale, importance, and future directions are described.

Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: The treatment of benign prostate hyperplasia (BPH presents 2 options: medical or surgical, and there are doubts about what is the best treatment since 80% of patients who undergo surgery become asymptomatic and 10 to 40% of those under medical regimen undergo surgery within a 5 years period. It is difficult to assess the actual costs of treating BPH in Brazil due to several factors, among them regional particularities and the scarcity of current statistical data. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Recently, in the Ribeirão Preto area, São Paulo, Brazil, the IPSS (International Prostatic Symptoms Score and quality of life were verified in 934 volunteers. It was determined the percentage of individuals with ages ranging from 40 to 79 years with moderate symptoms (score 8-19 and with severe symptoms (score 20-35, values for which are indicated medical and surgical treatment, respectively, according to the Brazilian Society of Urology consensus on BPH. Data on Brazilian population in that age range were obtained from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics referent to the year of 2000. It was determined the number of patients, according to the criteria above, subjected to either one of the treatments mentioned. Surgical costs of prostate transurethral resection were researched according to Unified Health System - SUS tables (US$ 173 and of Brazilian Medical Society - AMB with a mean cost in 3 hospitals of US$ 933. Drug costs were calculated by the annual mean price (US$ 355 of 4 alpha-blockers (tamsulosin, alfuzosin, doxazosin and terazosin. RESULTS: The estimated population for medical treatment was 5,397,321 individuals, with a cost corresponding to US$ 1,916,489,055.00. The estimated population for surgical treatment was 2,040,299 men, what would represent a cost of US$ 353,291,204.00 based on the SUS table and of US$ 1,904,279,066.00 based on AMB with hospital expenses included. CONCLUSION: All theses facts induce us to predict

The Authors present a new methodological approach in stochastic regime to determine the actual costs of an healthcare process. The paper specifically shows the application of the methodology for the determination of the cost of an Assisted reproductive technology (ART) treatment in Italy. The reason of this research comes from the fact that deterministic regime is inadequate to implement an accurate estimate of the cost of this particular treatment. In fact the durations of the different activities involved are unfixed and described by means of frequency distributions. Hence the need to determine in addition to the mean value of the cost, the interval within which it is intended to vary with a known confidence level. Consequently the cost obtained for each type of cycle investigated (in vitro fertilization and embryo transfer with or without intracytoplasmic sperm injection), shows tolerance intervals around the mean value sufficiently restricted as to make the data obtained statistically robust and therefore usable also as reference for any benchmark with other Countries. It should be noted that under a methodological point of view the approach was rigorous. In fact it was used both the technique of Activity Based Costing for determining the cost of individual activities of the process both the Monte Carlo simulation, with control of experimental error, for the construction of the tolerance intervals on the final result.

A Microsoft Excel-based workbook designed for research analysts to use in a national study was retooled for treatment program directors and financial officers to allocate, analyze, and estimate outpatient treatment costs in the U.S. This instrument can also be used as a planning and management tool to optimize resources and forecast the impact of future changes in staffing, client flow, program design, and other resources. The Treatment Cost Analysis Tool (TCAT) automatically provides feedback and generates summaries and charts using comparative data from a national sample of non-methadone outpatient providers. TCAT is being used by program staff to capture and allocate both economic and accounting costs, and outpatient service costs are reported for a sample of 70 programs. Costs for an episode of treatment in regular, intensive, and mixed types of outpatient treatment were $882, $1310, and $1381 respectively (based on 20% trimmed means and 2006 dollars). An hour of counseling cost $64 in regular, $85 intensive, and $86 mixed. Group counseling hourly costs per client were $8, $11, and $10 respectively for regular, intensive, and mixed. Future directions include use of a web-based interview version, much like some of the commercially available tax preparation software tools, and extensions for use in other modalities of treatment.

The natural gas industry in Korea has characteristics of a dual industrial structure with wholesale and retail and a regional monopoly of city gas company. Recently there have been discussions on the restructuring of gas industry and the problems arising from such industrial organization. At this point, the labor and capital cost of KOGAS were analyzed to find out efficiency of KOGAS, the wholesaler and the cost function focusing on distribution was estimated to find out effect of scale of city gas company, the retailer. As a result, in the case of KOGAS, it is prove that enhancing competitive power is needed by improving labor productivity through stabilization of labor structure and by maximizing value-added through stability of capital combination. From the estimation of cost function of city gas companies, the existing regional monopoly of city gas company have effects on its scale only when the area of operation and end users used the same amount per end user are increased. (author). 31 refs., 10 figs., 43 tabs.

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Accurate estimates can be created in less than a minute by applying powerful techniques and algorithms to create an Excel-based parametric cost model. In five easy steps you will learn how to normalize your company 's historical cost data to the new project parameters. This paper provides a complete, easy-to-understand, step by step how-to guide. Such a guide does not seem to currently exist. Over 2,000 hours of research, data collection, and trial and error, and thousands of lines of Excel Visual Basic Application (VBA) code were invested in developing these methods. While VBA is not required to use this information, it increases the power and aesthetics of the model. Implementing all of the steps described, while not required, will increase the accuracy of the results.

Costestimates are presented for the Solar Pilot Plant by cost breakdown structure element, with a commitment schedule and an expenditure schedule. Costestimates are given for a Commercial Plant, including several point costs for plants with various solar multiples and storage times. Specific questions (ERDA) pertaining to commercial plant design and performance data are addressed. The costestimates are supplemented by two books of vendor and subcontractor cost data.

Groundwater recharge estimation is a critical quantity for sustainable groundwater management. The feasibility and robustness of recharge estimation was evaluated using physical-based modeling procedures, and data from a low-cost weather station with remote sensor techniques in Southern Abbotsford, British Columbia, Canada. Recharge was determined using the Richards-based vadose zone hydrological model, HYDRUS-1D. The required meteorological data were recorded with a HOBO(TM) weather station for a short observation period (about 1 year) and an existing weather station (Abbotsford A) for long-term study purpose (27 years). Undisturbed soil cores were taken at two locations in the vicinity of the HOBO(TM) weather station. The derived soil hydraulic parameters were used to characterize the soil in the numerical model. Model performance was evaluated using observed soil moisture and soil temperature data obtained from subsurface remote sensors. A rigorous sensitivity analysis was used to test the robustness of the model. Recharge during the short observation period was estimated at 863 and 816 mm. The mean annual recharge was estimated at 848 and 859 mm/year based on a time series of 27 years. The relative ratio of annual recharge-precipitation varied from 43% to 69%. From a monthly recharge perspective, the majority (80%) of recharge due to precipitation occurred during the hydrologic winter period. The comparison of the recharge estimates with other studies indicates a good agreement. Furthermore, this method is able to predict transient recharge estimates, and can provide a reasonable tool for estimates on nutrient leaching that is often controlled by strong precipitation events and rapid infiltration of water and nitrate into the soil.

Successful projects require an integrated approach to managing cost, schedule, and risk. This is especially true for complex, multi-year projects involving multiple organizations. To explore solutions and leverage valuable lessons learned, NASA's Virtual Project Management Challenge will kick off a three-part series examining some of the challenges faced by project and program managers when it comes to managing these important elements. In this first session of the series, we will look at cost management, with an emphasis on the critical roles of costestimating and cost reporting. By taking a proactive approach to both of these activities, project managers can better control life cycle costs, maintain stakeholder confidence, and protect other current and future projects in the organization's portfolio. Speakers will be Doug Comstock, Director of NASA's Cost Analysis Division, Kristin Van Wychen, Senior Analyst in the GAO Acquisition and Sourcing Management Team, and Mary Beth Zimmerman, Branch Chief for NASA's Portfolio Analysis Branch, Strategic Investments Division. Moderator Ramien Pierre is from NASA's Academy for Program/Project and Engineering Leadership (APPEL).

UML is a standard modeling language used in object-oriented analysis and design. Function point analysis is a method used to measure the size of an application, It is independent of the implementation programming language. Its measuring result can be compared between different development processes. This paper presents a method to use the requirements analysis model of UML to analysis the application's function points, so software developer can use it to estimate the project's size and cost. An improved method is given at the end of this paper.

In this work we present an evolutionary morphological approach to solve the software development costestimation (SDCE) problem. The proposed approach consists of a hybrid artificial neuron based on framework of mathematical morphology (MM) with algebraic foundations in the complete lattice theory (CLT), referred to as dilation-erosion perceptron (DEP). Also, we present an evolutionary learning process, called DEP(MGA), using a modified genetic algorithm (MGA) to design the DEP model, because a drawback arises from the gradient estimation of morphological operators in the classical learning process of the DEP, since they are not differentiable in the usual way. Furthermore, an experimental analysis is conducted with the proposed model using five complex SDCE problems and three well-known performance metrics, demonstrating good performance of the DEP model to solve SDCE problems.

Highlights: • The nuclear fuel cycle cost using a new costestimation model was analyzed. • The material flows of three nuclear fuel cycle options were calculated. • The generation cost of once-through was estimated to be 66.88 mills/kW h. • The generation cost of pyro-SFR recycling was estimated to be 78.06 mills/kW h. • The reactor cost was identified as the main cost driver of pyro-SFR recycling. - Abstract: The present study analyzes advanced nuclear fuel cycle costestimation models such as the different discount rate model and its costestimation results. To do so, an analysis of the nuclear fuel cycle cost of three options (direct disposal (once through), PWR–MOX (Mixed OXide fuel), and Pyro-SFR (Sodium-cooled Fast Reactor)) from the viewpoint of economic sense, focusing on the costestimation model, was conducted using a dynamic model. From an analysis of the fuel cycle costestimation results, it was found that some cost gap exists between the traditional same discount rate model and the advanced different discount rate model. However, this gap does not change the priority of the nuclear fuel cycle option from the viewpoint of economics. In addition, the fuel cycle costs of OT (Once-Through) and Pyro-SFR recycling based on the most likely value using a probabilistic costestimation except for reactor costs were calculated to be 8.75 mills/kW h and 8.30 mills/kW h, respectively. Namely, the Pyro-SFR recycling option was more economical than the direct disposal option. However, if the reactor cost is considered, the economic sense in the generation cost between the two options (direct disposal vs. Pyro-SFR recycling) can be changed because of the high reactor cost of an SFR.

Sovacool, Benjamin K. [Energy Governance Program, Centre on Asia and Globalisation, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore (Singapore)

2008-05-15

A combination of technical complexity, tight coupling, speed, and human fallibility contribute to the unexpected failure of large-scale energy technologies. This study offers a preliminary assessment of the social and economic costs of major energy accidents from 1907 to 2007. It documents 279 incidents that have been responsible for $41 billion in property damage and 182,156 deaths. Such disasters highlight an often-ignored negative externality to energy production and use, and emphasize the need for further research. (author)

Full Text Available Current Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP state that the cost of an asset acquired for cash is the fair value (FV of the amount surrendered, and that of an asset acquired in a non-monetary exchange is the FV of the asset surrendered or, if it is more “clearly evident,” the FV of the acquired asset. The measurement method prescribed for a non-monetary exchange ignores valuable information about the “less clearly evident” asset. Thus, we suggest that the FV in any exchange be measured by the weighted average of the exchanged assets’ FV estimations, where the weights are the inverse of the variances’ estimations. This alternative valuation process accounts for the uncertainty involved in estimating the FV of each of the asset in the exchange. The proposed method suits all types of exchanges: monetary and non-monetary. In a monetary transaction, the weighted average equals the cash paid because the variance of its FV is nil.

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Colorectal cancer (CRC is the second most common invasive cancer in Canada. Estimates of the costs of care allow estimation of the cost effectiveness of screening for premalignant and early disease.

This work deals with some aspects of rainfall interception estimation uncertainty in a deciduous forest. The importance of interception loss measurement error is stressed. Confidence limits of Rutter original and sparse interception model parameters obtained from regressions for leafed and leafless period are presented, as well as free throughfall coefficient variability with event weather conditions. (Author) 8 refs.

The major drawbacks of traditional approaches to product costing include lack of manufacturing knowledge, reliance on the detailed design description, poor cost function approximation and inability to update estimation algorithms by using actual cost data. Adopting the Activity-Based Costing (ABC) concept and based on estimated processing time, this paper proposes a pragmatic approach to product costing. The approach involves two stages, namely the preparatory stage and the estimation stage. A case study conducted in a refrigerator company is reported.

Regarding nuclear power plant development in Bangka Island, it can be estimated that produced power will be oversupply for the Bangka Island and needs to transmit to Sumatra or Java Island. The distance between the regions or islands causing considerable loss of power in transmission by alternating current, and a wide range of technical and economical issues. The objective of this paper addresses to economics analysis of direct current transmission system to overcome those technical problem. Direct current transmission has a stable characteristic, so that the power delivery from Bangka to Sumatra or Java in a large scale efficiently and reliably can be done. HVDC system costs depend on the power capacity applied to the system and length of the transmission line in addition to other variables that may be different.

The Future Automotive Systems Technology Simulator (FASTSim) is a high-level advanced vehicle powertrain systems analysis tool supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Vehicle Technologies Office. FASTSim provides a quick and simple approach to compare powertrains and estimate the impact of technology improvements on light- and heavy-duty vehicle efficiency, performance, cost, and battery batches of real-world drive cycles. FASTSim’s calculation framework and balance among detail, accuracy, and speed enable it to simulate thousands of driven miles in minutes. The key components and vehicle outputs have been validated by comparing the model outputs to test data for many different vehicles to provide confidence in the results. A graphical user interface makes FASTSim easy and efficient to use. FASTSim is freely available for download from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s website (see www.nrel.gov/fastsim).

Tropical deforestation is estimated to cause about one-quarter of anthropogenic carbon emissions, loss of biodiversity, and other environmental services. United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change talks are now considering mechanisms for avoiding deforestation (AD), but the economic potential of AD has yet to be addressed. We use three economic models of glboal land use and management to analyze the potential contribution of AD activities to reduced greenhouse gas emissions. AD activities are found to be a competitive, low-cost abatement option. A program providing a 10% reduction in deforestation from 2005 to 2030 could provide 0.3-0.6 Gt (1 Gt = 1 x 105 g) CO2{center_dot}yr-1 in emission reductions and would require $0.4 billion to $1.7 billion{center_dot}yr-1 for 30 years. A 50% reduction in deforestation from 2005 to 2030 could provide 1.5-2.7 Gt CO2{center_dot}yr-1 in emission reductions and would require $17.2 billion to $28.0 billion{center_dot}yr-1. Finally, some caveats to the analysis that could increase costs of AD programs are described.

Detailed capital and operating costestimates were prepared for the generation of electric power in a new, net 500 MW (e), coal-burning facility by five alternative processes: conventional boiler with no control of SO/sub 2/ emissions, atmospheric fluidized bed steam generator (AFB), conventional boiler equipped with a limestone FGD system, conventional boiler equipped with magnesia FGD system, and coal beneficiation followed by a conventional boiler quipped with limestone FGD for part of the flue gas stream. For a coal containing 3.5% sulfur, meeting SO/sub 2/ emission limits of 1.2 pounds per million Btu fired was most economical with the limestone FGD system. This result was unchanged for a coal containing 5% sulfur; however, for 2% sulfur, limestone FGD and AFB were competitive methods of controlling SO/sub 2/ emissions. Brief consideration of 90% reduction of SO/sub 2/ emissions led to the choice of limestone FGD as the most economical method. Byproduct credit for the sulfuric acid produced in regenerating the magnesia could make that system competitive with the limestone FGD system, depending upon local markets. The cost of sludge fixation and disposal would make limestone FGD noneconomic in many situations, if these steps are necessary.

This slide presentation reviews the process and some of the problems and challenges of developing an In-House CostEstimate (IHCE). Using as an example the Space Network Ground Segment Sustainment (SGSS) project, the presentation reviews the phases for developing a Costestimate within the project to estimate government and contractor project costs to support a budget request.

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This document is a supplement to a ''Handbook for CostEstimating'' (NUREG/CR-3971) and provides specific guidance for developing ''quick'' approximate estimates of the cost of implementing generic regulatory requirements for nuclear power plants. A method is presented for relating the known construction costs for new nuclear power plants (as contained in the Energy Economic Data Base) to the cost of performing similar work, on a back-fit basis, at existing plants. Cost factors are presented to account for variations in such important cost areas as construction labor productivity, engineering and quality assurance, replacement energy, reworking of existing features, and regional variations in the cost of materials and labor. Other cost categories addressed in this handbook include those for changes in plant operating personnel and plant documents, licensee costs, NRC costs, and costs for other government agencies. Data sheets, worksheets, and appropriate cost algorithms are included to guide the user through preparation of rough estimates. A sample estimate is prepared using the method and the estimating tools provided.

The research and development costs of 106 randomly selected new drugs were obtained from a survey of 10 pharmaceutical firms. These data were used to estimate the average pre-tax cost of new drug and biologics development. The costs of compounds abandoned during testing were linked to the costs of compounds that obtained marketing approval. The estimated average out-of-pocket cost per approved new compound is $1395 million (2013 dollars). Capitalizing out-of-pocket costs to the point of marketing approval at a real discount rate of 10.5% yields a total pre-approval costestimate of $2558 million (2013 dollars). When compared to the results of the previous study in this series, total capitalized costs were shown to have increased at an annual rate of 8.5% above general price inflation. Adding an estimate of post-approval R&D costs increases the costestimate to $2870 million (2013 dollars).

Full Text Available This paper presents a comprehensive statistical research on the effect of construction costestimating software’s features towards estimating job performance. The objectives of this study are identification of costestimating software features, analyzing the significant relation of costestimating software’s features towards job performance, Explore the problem faced during the implementation and lastly propose a plan to improve the costestimating software usage among contractors in Malaysia. The study statistically reveals four features of costestimating software that significantly impact towards changes in costestimating job performance. These features were refined by performing interview to focus group of respondent to observe the actual possible problems during the implementation. Eventually, the proposed improvement plan was validated by the focus group of respondents to enhance the costestimating software implementation among contractors in Malaysia.

Sandia National Laboratories has prepared a ROM costestimate for budgetary planning for the IDC Reengineering Phase 2 & 3 effort, using a commercial software costestimation tool calibrated to US industry performance parameters. This is not a costestimate for Sandia to perform the project. This report provides the ROM costestimate and describes the methodology, assumptions, and cost model details used to create the ROM costestimate. ROM CostEstimate Disclaimer Contained herein is a Rough Order of Magnitude (ROM) costestimate that has been provided to enable initial planning for this proposed project. This ROM costestimate is submitted to facilitate informal discussions in relation to this project and is NOT intended to commit Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) or its resources. Furthermore, as a Federally Funded Research and Development Center (FFRDC), Sandia must be compliant with the Anti-Deficiency Act and operate on a full-cost recovery basis. Therefore, while Sandia, in conjunction with the Sponsor, will use best judgment to execute work and to address the highest risks and most important issues in order to effectively manage within cost constraints, this ROM estimate and any subsequent approved costestimates are on a 'full-cost recovery' basis. Thus, work can neither commence nor continue unless adequate funding has been accepted and certified by DOE.

A methodology is outlined which can be used to estimate the costs of research and development projects. The approach uses the Delphi technique a method developed by the Rand Corporation for systematically eliciting and evaluating group judgments in an objective manner. The use of the Delphi allows for the integration of expert opinion into the cost-estimating process in a consistent and rigorous fashion. This approach can also signal potential cost-problem areas. This result can be a useful tool in planning additional cost analysis or in estimating contingency funds. A Monte Carlo approach is also examined.

concept, the additional manufacturing knowledge can be used to identify a more accurate lifecycle cost and facilitate higher fidelity tradeoffs during conceptual and preliminary design. Advanced Composite CostEstimating Model (ACCEM) is employed as a process-based cost component to replace the original TCM result of the composite part production cost. The reason for the replacement is that TCM estimates production costs from part weights as a result of subtractive manufacturing of metallic origin such as casting, forging, and machining processes. A complexity factor can sometimes be adjusted to reflect different types of metal and machine settings. The TCM assumption, however, gives erroneous results when applied to additive processes like those of composite manufacturing. Another innovative aspect of this research is the introduction of a work measurement technique called Maynard Operation Sequence Technique (MOST) to be used, similarly to Activity-Based Costing (ABC) approach, to estimate manufacturing time of a part by virtue of breaking down the operations occurred during its production. ABC allows a realistic determination of cost incurred in each activity, as opposed to using a traditional method of time estimation by analogy or using response surface equations from historical process data. The MOST concept provides a tailored study of an individual process typically required for a new, innovative design. Nevertheless, the MOST idea has some challenges, one of which is its requirement to build a new process from ground up. The process development requires a Subject Matter Expertise (SME) in manufacturing method of the particular design. The SME must have also a comprehensive understanding of the MOST system so that the correct parameters are chosen. In practice, these knowledge requirements may demand people from outside of the design discipline and a priori training of MOST. To relieve the constraint, this study includes an entirely new sub-system architecture

This report provides an update on the previous cost model for thermal energy storage (TES) systems. The update allows NREL to estimate the costs of such systems that are compatible with the higher operating temperatures associated with advanced power cycles. The goal of the Department of Energy (DOE) Solar Energy Technology Program is to develop solar technologies that can make a significant contribution to the United States domestic energy supply. The recent DOE SunShot Initiative sets a very aggressive cost goal to reach a Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) of 6 cents/kWh by 2020 with no incentives or credits for all solar-to-electricity technologies.1 As this goal is reached, the share of utility power generation that is provided by renewable energy sources is expected to increase dramatically. Because Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) is currently the only renewable technology that is capable of integrating cost-effective energy storage, it is positioned to play a key role in providing renewable, dispatchable power to utilities as the share of power generation from renewable sources increases. Because of this role, future CSP plants will likely have as much as 15 hours of Thermal Energy Storage (TES) included in their design and operation. As such, the cost and performance of the TES system is critical to meeting the SunShot goal for solar technologies. The cost of electricity from a CSP plant depends strongly on its overall efficiency, which is a product of two components - the collection and conversion efficiencies. The collection efficiency determines the portion of incident solar energy that is captured as high-temperature thermal energy. The conversion efficiency determines the portion of thermal energy that is converted to electricity. The operating temperature at which the overall efficiency reaches its maximum depends on many factors, including material properties of the CSP plant components. Increasing the operating temperature of the power generation

Parasites, by definition, extract energy from their hosts and thus affect trophic and food web dynamics even when the parasite may have limited effects on host population size. We studied the energetic costs of mange (Sarcoptes scabiei) in wolves (Canis lupus) using thermal cameras to estimate heat losses associated with compromised insulation during the winter. We combined the field data of known, naturally infected wolves with data set on captive wolves with shaved patches of fur as a positive control to simulate mange-induced hair loss. We predict that during the winter in Montana, more severe mange infection increases heat loss by around 5.2 to 12 MJ per night (1240 to 2850 kcal, or a 65% to 78% increase) for small and large wolves, respectively accounting for wind effects. To maintain body temperature would require a significant proportion of a healthy wolf's total daily energy demands (18-22 MJ/day). We also predict how these thermal costs may increase in colder climates by comparing our predictions in Bozeman, Montana to those from a place with lower ambient temperatures (Fairbanks, Alaska). Contrary to our expectations, the 14°C differential between these regions was not as important as the potential differences in wind speed. These large increases in energetic demands can be mitigated by either increasing consumption rates or decreasing other energy demands. Data from GPS-collared wolves indicated that healthy wolves move, on average, 17 km per day, which was reduced by 1.5, 1.8 and 6.5 km for light, medium, and severe hair loss. In addition, the wolf with the most hair loss was less active at night and more active during the day, which is the converse of the movement patterns of healthy wolves. At the individual level mange infections create significant energy demands and altered behavioral patterns, this may have cascading effects on prey consumption rates, food web dynamics, predator-prey interactions, and scavenger communities.

Operating costs are normally broken into three major categories: variable costs including raw materials, annual catalyst and chemicals, and utilities; semi-variable costs including labor and labor related cost; and fixed or capital related charges. The raw materials and utilities costs are proportional to production; however, a small component of utilities cost is independent of production. The catalyst and chemicals costs are also normally proportional to production. Semi-variable costs include direct labor, maintenance labor, labor supervision, contract maintenance, maintenance materials, payroll overheads, operation supplies, and general overhead and administration. Fixed costs include local taxes, insurance and the time value of the capital investment. The latter charge often includes the investor's anticipated return on investment. In determining operating costs for financial analysis, return on investment (ROI) and depreciation are not treated as cash operating costs. These costs are developed in the financial analysis; the annual operating cost determined here omits ROI and depreciation. Project Annual Operating Costs are summarized in Table 1. Detailed supporting information for the cost elements listed below is included in the following sections: Electrical, catalyst and chemicals, and salaries and wages.

Full Text Available The methodical approach to drug addiction social costestimation in Russian regions is suggested in the article. It is presented by costestimation of socio-economical consequences of drug addiction spread on the territory. The main approaches to latency characteristics of drug addiction situation estimation are shown. The results of drug addiction and its separate parts social costestimation are given for federal regions and subjects of Russian Federation for the period of 2001 − 2005.

The term ``transition costs`` describes the potential revenue shortfall (or welfare loss) a utility (or other actor) may experience through government-initiated deregulation of electricity generation. The potential for transition costs arises whenever a regulated industry is subject to competitive market forces as a result of explicit government action. Federal and state proposals to deregulate electricity generation sparked a national debate on transition costs in the electric-utility industry. Industry-wide transition costestimates range from about $20 billion to $500 billion. Such disparate estimates raise important questions on estimation methods for decision makers. This report examines different approaches to estimating transition costs. The study has three objectives. First, we discuss the concept of transition cost. Second, we identify the major cost categories included in transition costestimates and summarize the current debate on which specific costs are appropriately included in these estimates. Finally, we identify general and specific estimation approaches and assess their strengths and weaknesses. We relied primarily on the evidentiary records established at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and the California Public Utilities Commission to identify major cost categories and specific estimation approaches. We also contacted regulatory commission staffs in ten states to ascertain estimation activities in each of these states. We refined a classification framework to describe and assess general estimation options. We subsequently developed and applied criteria to describe and assess specific estimation approaches proposed by federal regulators, state regulators, utilities, independent power companies, and consultants.

The "average" costs of integrated library system components--including hardware, software, and related expenses--are outlined to assist in projecting the costs of a small system. Potential benefits of such systems, i.e., areas in which operational costs can be reduced through their use, are also reviewed. (EJS)

A new formulation of a nuclear core design optimization problem is introduced in this article. Originally, the optimization problem consisted in adjusting several reactor cell parameters, such as dimensions, enrichment and materials, in order to minimize the radial power peaking factor in a three-enrichment zone reactor, considering restrictions on the average thermal flux, criticality and sub-moderation. Here, we address the same problem using the minimization of the fuel and cladding materials costs as the objective function, and the radial power peaking factor as an operational constraint. This cost-based optimization problem is attacked by two metaheuristics, the standard genetic algorithm (SGA), and a recently introduced Metropolis algorithm called the Particle Collision Algorithm (PCA). The two algorithms are submitted to the same computational effort and their results are compared. As the formulation presented is preliminary, more elaborate models are also discussed (author)

In this paper, I use Levin and McEwan's (2001) cost feasibility approach and personnel data obtained from the Superintendent of Public Instruction to estimate the cost of providing coaching support to every newly hired principal in Washington State. Based on this descriptive analysis, I estimate that the cost to provide leadership coaching to…

Parasites, by definition, extract energy from their hosts and thus affect trophic and food web dynamics even when the parasite may have limited effects on host population size. We studied the energetic costs of mange (Sarcoptes scabiei) in wolves (Canis lupus) using thermal cameras to estimate heat losses associated with compromised insulation during the winter. We combined the field data of known, naturally infected wolves with a data set on captive wolves with shaved patches of fur as a positive control to simulate mange-induced hair loss. We predict that during the winter in Montana, more severe mange infection increases heat loss by around 5.2-12 MJ per night (1,240-2,850 kcal, or a 65-78% increase) for small and large wolves, respectively, accounting for wind effects. To maintain body temperature would require a significant proportion of a healthy wolf's total daily energy demands (18-22 MJ/day). We also predict how these thermal costs may increase in colder climates by comparing our predictions in Bozeman, Montana to those from a place with lower ambient temperatures (Fairbanks, Alaska). Contrary to our expectations, the 14°C differential between these regions was not as important as the potential differences in wind speed. These large increases in energetic demands can be mitigated by either increasing consumption rates or decreasing other energy demands. Data from GPS-collared wolves indicated that healthy wolves move, on average, 17 km per day, which was reduced by 1.5, 1.8, and 6.5 km for light, medium, and severe hair loss. In addition, the wolf with the most hair loss was less active at night and more active during the day, which is the converse of the movement patterns of healthy wolves. At the individual level, mange infections create significant energy demands and altered behavioral patterns, this may have cascading effects on prey consumption rates, food web dynamics, predator-prey interactions, and scavenger communities.

Full Text Available Costestimation of new products has always been difficult as only few design, manufacturing and operational features will be known. In these situations, parametric or non-parametric methods are commonly used to estimate the cost of a product given the corresponding cost drivers. The parametric models use priori determined cost function where the parameters of the function are evaluated from historical data. Non-parametric methods, on the other hand, attempt to fit curves to the historic data without predetermined function. In both methods, it is assumed that the historic data used in the analysis is a true representation of the relation between the cost drivers and the corresponding costs. However, because of efficiency variations of the manufacturers and suppliers, changes in supplier selections, market fluctuations, and several other reasons, certain costs in the historic data may be too high whereas other costs may represent better deals for their corresponding cost drivers. Thus, it may be important to rank the historic data and identify benchmarks and estimate the target costs of the product based on these benchmarks. In this paper, a novel adaptation of cost drivers and cost data is introduced in order to use data envelopment analysis for the purpose of ranking cost data and identify benchmarks, and then estimate the target costs of a new product based on these benchmarks. An illustrative case study has been presented for the costestimation of landing gears of an aircraft manufactured by an aerospace company located in Montreal, CANADA.

Full Text Available This paper provides estimates of the costs of clearing important species of invasive alien plants, as well as of progress made with clearing, based on data from a recently developed GIS-based project information system. Before the deployment...

Objectives: To perform value of information (VOI) analyses, an estimate of research costs is needed. However, reference values for such costs are not available. This study aimed to analyze empirical data on research budgets and, by means of a cost tool, provide an overview of costs of several types

OBJECTIVE To estimate the total healthcare costs and costs attributable to prostate cancer across all stages of disease, and to determine the predictors of those costs, as describing the cost of care for patients with prostate cancer is useful to understand the economic burden of illness, explore

Sandia National Laboratories has prepared a ROM costestimate for budgetary planning for the IDC Reengineering Phase 2 & 3 effort, based on leveraging a fully funded, Sandia executed NDC Modernization project. This report provides the ROM costestimate and describes the methodology, assumptions, and cost model details used to create the ROM costestimate. ROM CostEstimate Disclaimer Contained herein is a Rough Order of Magnitude (ROM) costestimate that has been provided to enable initial planning for this proposed project. This ROM costestimate is submitted to facilitate informal discussions in relation to this project and is NOT intended to commit Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) or its resources. Furthermore, as a Federally Funded Research and Development Center (FFRDC), Sandia must be compliant with the Anti-Deficiency Act and operate on a full-cost recovery basis. Therefore, while Sandia, in conjunction with the Sponsor, will use best judgment to execute work and to address the highest risks and most important issues in order to effectively manage within cost constraints, this ROM estimate and any subsequent approved costestimates are on a 'full-cost recovery' basis. Thus, work can neither commence nor continue unless adequate funding has been accepted and certified by DOE.

This final report completes the Los Alamos Waste Management CostEstimation Project, and includes the documentation of the waste management processes at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) for hazardous, mixed, low-level radioactive solid and transuranic waste, development of the costestimation model and a user reference manual. The ultimate goal of this effort was to develop an estimate of the life cycle costs for the aforementioned waste types. The CostEstimation Model is a tool that can be used to calculate the costs of waste management at LANL for the aforementioned waste types, under several different scenarios. Each waste category at LANL is managed in a separate fashion, according to Department of Energy requirements and state and federal regulations. The cost of the waste management process for each waste category has not previously been well documented. In particular, the costs associated with the handling, treatment and storage of the waste have not been well understood. It is anticipated that greater knowledge of these costs will encourage waste generators at the Laboratory to apply waste minimization techniques to current operations. Expected benefits of waste minimization are a reduction in waste volume, decrease in liability and lower waste management costs.

The projected development and production costs of each of the Lunar Base's systems are described and unit costs are estimated for transporting the systems to the lunar surface and for setting up the system.

The construction costestimation systems in Spain are undeveloped and, hence, infrequently used by technicians and professionals in the building sector. However, estimation of an approximate real cost prior to the execution of the work is compulsory under current legal regulations (Technical Building Code). Therefore, the development of research projects on construction costestimation models such as the one described and demonstrated in this talk is extremely interesting.

Costestimation is one of the most critical tasks for building construction project management. The existing building construction costestimation methods of many countries, including China, require information from several sources, including material, labor, and equipment, and tend to be manual, time-consuming, and error-prone. To solve these problems, a building construction costestimation model based on ontology representation and reasoning is established, which includes three major compo...

There is very little publicly available data about the building cost of inland ships, especially for ships that have dimensions that differ significantly from those of common ships. Also, no methods to determine the building cost of inland ships are described in literature. In this paper, a method t

Cost models for unit processes typically utilized in a conventional water treatment plant and in package treatment plant technology are compiled in this paper. The cost curves are represented as a function of specified design parameters and are categorized into four major catego...

... each cost element, consistent with the carrier's cost accounting system. (4) When more than one line... element. (5) Depending on the carrier's accounting system, the carrier shall provide breakdowns for the... materials, parts, software, components, and assemblies. For all items proposed, identify the item,...

Maintaining population-based registries requires adequate and sustained resources; however, to date there has been no systematic evaluation to identify the resource needs for cancer registration in most countries, including Colombia. A systematic assessment of the costs can quantify the funding required and identify processes to improve efficiency of cancer registries. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC's) International Registry Costing Tool (IntRegCosting Tool) was tailored specifically for the Colombian registries and was used to collect resource use data from five regional population-based cancer registries: Barranquilla, Bucaramanga, Cali, Manizales, and Pasto. The registries provided cost data for the year 2013 and cancer cases corresponding to the year 2010. We identified an almost threefold variation in the average cost per case (77,932 to 214,082 Colombian pesos or US $41 to US $113 in 2013) across the registries, but there were also substantial differences in data collection approaches, types of data collected, and activities performed. Cost per inhabitant varied between 95 and 415 Colombian pesos (US $0.05 to US $0.22). Between 20% and 45% of the total cost was due to fixed cost activities. The detailed economic information presented in this study constitutes a valuable source of activity-based cost data that registries can use to compare operations, assess key factors that lead to differences in cost per case, and identify potential approaches to improve efficiencies. Furthermore, the knowledge gained from studying the Colombian registries can help inform the planning and operations of other registries in the region. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Examines the use of stochastic frontier estimation of constant elasticity of substitution (CES) cost function to measure differences in efficiency among British universities. (Contains 28 references.) (PKP)

The Boeing heliostat design can be produced and installed for a Capital Cost of $42 per square meter at high commercial plant quantities and rates. This is 14% less than the DOE cost target. Even at a low commercial plant production rate of 25,000 heliostats per year the Capital Cost of $48 per square meter is 2% less than the cost goal established by the DOE. Projected capital costs and 30 year maintenance costs for three scenarios of production and installation are presented: (1) commercial rate production of 25,000, 250,000, and 1,000,000 heliostats per year; (2) a one-time only production quantity of 2500 heliostats; and (3) commercial rate production of 25,000 heliostats per year with each plant (25,000 heliostats) installed at widely dispersed sites throughout the Southwestern United States. These three scenarios for solar plant locations and the manufacturing/installation processes are fully described, and detailed cost breakdowns for the three scenarios are provided.

that designs should avoid costly and unwarranted architectural and engineering embellishments and unnecessary construction and maintenance expenses ...relevant data taken from the existing contract, remaining construction work, and cost information from other hospitals . Credible A costestimate is...Office of Management and Budget Circular A-11 states that the cost of a capital asset such as a new hospital is its full life-cycle cost, which

Full Text Available This paper investigates the accuracy of six measures of housing cost differences among US metropolitan areas. Using Census data from 177 metropolitan areas, it tests the measures in two ways. First, it tests the ability of changes in the measures to predict changes in the shelter component of the metropolitan CPI from 1990 to 2000. Second, it tests the ability of the measures themselves to predict a proxy in 2000. A measure based on Fair Market Rents calculated by HUD placed second on the first test but did badly on the second. The housing component of the ACCRA index, a living cost measure frequently used by researchers, performed poorly on both tests. The top performer on both tests was a measure based on the average rent per room for a metropolitan area’s dwellings. Researchers wishing to control for living cost differences among places should consider including it in their living cost index.

This investigation aims at providing an improved basis for assessing economic consequences of alternative Solid Waste Management (SWM) strategies for existing waste facilities. A bottom-up methodology was developed to determine marginal costs in existing facilities due to changes in the SWM system, based on the determination of average costs in such waste facilities as function of key facility and waste compositional parameters. The applicability of the method was demonstrated through a case study including two existing Waste-to-Energy (WtE) facilities, one with co-generation of heat and power (CHP) and another with only power generation (Power), affected by diversion strategies of five waste fractions (fibres, plastic, metals, organics and glass), named "target fractions". The study assumed three possible responses to waste diversion in the WtE facilities: (i) biomass was added to maintain a constant thermal load, (ii) Refused-Derived-Fuel (RDF) was included to maintain a constant thermal load, or (iii) no reaction occurred resulting in a reduced waste throughput without full utilization of the facility capacity. Results demonstrated that marginal costs of diversion from WtE were up to eleven times larger than average costs and dependent on the response in the WtE plant. Marginal cost of diversion were between 39 and 287 € Mg(-1) target fraction when biomass was added in a CHP (from 34 to 303 € Mg(-1) target fraction in the only Power case), between -2 and 300 € Mg(-1) target fraction when RDF was added in a CHP (from -2 to 294 € Mg(-1) target fraction in the only Power case) and between 40 and 303 € Mg(-1) target fraction when no reaction happened in a CHP (from 35 to 296 € Mg(-1) target fraction in the only Power case). Although average costs at WtE facilities were highly influenced by energy selling prices, marginal costs were not (provided a response was initiated at the WtE to keep constant the utilized thermal capacity). Failing to systematically

We used historical records of damaging landslides triggered by rainstorms and a newly developed Probabilistic Landslide Assessment CostEstimation System (PLACES) to estimate the numbers and direct costs of future landslides in the 10-county San Francisco Bay region. Historical records of damaging landslides in the region are incomplete. Therefore, our estimates of numbers and costs of future landslides are minimal estimates. The estimated mean annual number of future damaging landslides for the entire 10-county region is about 65. Santa Cruz County has the highest estimated mean annual number of damaging future landslides (about 18), whereas Napa, San Francisco, and Solano Counties have the lowest estimated mean numbers of damaging landslides (about 1 each). The estimated mean annual cost of future landslides in the entire region is about US $14.80 million (year 2000 $). The estimated mean annual cost is highest for San Mateo County ($3.24 million) and lowest for Solano County ($0.18 million). The annual per capita cost for the entire region will be about $2.10. Santa Cruz County will have the highest annual per capita cost at $8.45, whereas San Francisco County will have the lowest per capita cost at $0.31. Normalising costs by dividing by the percentage of land area with slopes equal to or greater than 17% indicates that San Francisco County will have the highest cost per square km ($7,101), whereas Santa Clara County will have the lowest cost per square km ($229). These results indicate that the San Francisco Bay region has one of the highest levels of landslide risk in the United States. Compared with landslide costestimates from the rest of the world, the risk level in the Bay region seems high, but not exceptionally high.

Methane is the second most important greenhouse gas after CO2 and contributes to global warming. Its sources are not uniformly distributed across terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, and most of the methane flux is expected to stem from hotspots which often occupy a very small fraction of the total landscape area. Continuous time-series measurements of CH4 concentrations can help identify and locate these methane hotspots. Newer, low-cost trace gas sensors such as the Figaro TGS 2600 can detect CH4 even at ambient concentrations. Hence, in this paper we tested this sensor under real-world conditions over Toolik Lake, Alaska, to determine its suitability for preliminary studies before placing more expensive and service-intensive equipment at a given locality. A reasonably good agreement with parallel measurements made using a Los Gatos Research FMA 100 methane analyzer was found after removal of the strong sensitivities for temperature and relative humidity. Correcting for this sensitivity increased the absolute accuracy required for in-depth studies, and the reproducibility between two TGS 2600 sensors run in parallel is very good. We conclude that the relative CH4 concentrations derived from such sensors are sufficient for preliminary investigations in the search of potential methane hotspots.

Full Text Available In this paper simplified methods for estimating the external costs due to transportation in regional areas are proposed. The methods are based on data available by national and regional statistical sources and do not need specific surveys; they allow obtaining approximate estimates useful for a preliminary evaluation of transportation plans, policies and projects. In more detail, a negative externality is defined as a cost that is produced by subject A and is borne by subject B; moreover, subject A does not consider the effects of his/her behavior on subject B and does not compensate subject B for the costs that this last one is forced to bear. In this paper after a literature review on methodologies proposed for estimating external costs, in national and international ambits, the main external costs produced by transportation systems in the Region of Campania are estimated. The main external costs considered are: greenhouse gas emissions, air pollution, noise, accidents and congestion. In the paper the secondary external costs are neglected; the main ones are: water and soil pollution; landscape and nature damages; upstream and downstream effects; visual intrusion; separation effects; soil occupancy. In this paper the external costsestimated are the ones produced not only by road traffic, that anyway is the main “culprit”, but also by rail and air transportation systems. The evaluation of external costs has required the collection of several data on the regional mobility and the estimation of veh-kms per year produced in Campania by cars and freight vehicles. The estimation of veh-kms per year is based on circulating vehicles, subdivided by the COPERT classification, and on average yearly distances covered by each vehicle class. Other regional statistical data are collected about regional rail transport and air services at the main airports of the region. Moreover, since the evaluation of some external costs is based on damages on human

, which we call the chipping and aggregate methods, and calculated their potential life cycle costs. By analyzing the potential for increased pavement durability resulting from these conceptual approaches, we then estimated the incremental costs that would allow them to be cost-effective compared to conventional AC. For our example case of Los Angeles, we found that those allowable incremental costs range from less than dollar 1 to more than dollar 11 per square yard (dollar 1 to dollar 13 per square meter) depending on street type and the condition of the original pavement. Finally, we evaluated the main actors in the pavement market and the existing and potential market barriers associated with reflective pavements. Apart from situations where lifecycle costs are high compared to conventional AC, all reflective paving technologies face a cultural barrier based on the belief that black is better. For PCC, high first costs were found to be the most significant economic barrier, particularly where agencies are cons trained by first cost. Lack of developer standards was found to be a significant institutional barrier to PCC since developers are often not held accountable for the long-term maintenance of roads after initial construction, which creates a misplaced incentive to build low first-cost pavements. PCC also faces site-specific barriers such as poorly compacted base soils and proximity to areas of frequent utility cutting.

... dollars or by using an inflation factor derived from the most recent Implicit Price Deflator for Gross... facility, the owner or operator must adjust the post-closure costestimate for inflation within 60 days... costestimate must be updated for inflation within 30 days after the close of the firm's fiscal year...

... current dollars or by using an inflation factor derived from the most recent Implicit Price Deflator for... of the facility, the owner or operator must adjust the post-closure costestimate for inflation...-closure care costestimate must be updated for inflation no later than 30 days after the close of the firm...

This paper presents preliminary orientations for the Long-Term Plan 2003-2010. It focuses on choices in the scientific programme, savings, organisational measures and financial scenarios to deal with the cost increase of the LHC project. The paper is presented for discussion. The outcome of this discussion, as well as the observations and recommendations of the External Review Committee, which started its work while this paper was in preparation, will be taken into account for the plan which the Management is preparing for June 2002.

This paper presents preliminary orientations for the Long-Term Plan 2003-2010. It focuses on choices in the scientific programme, savings, organisational measures and financial scenarios to deal with the cost increase of the LHC project. The paper is presented for discussion. The outcome of this discussion, as well as the observations and recommendations of the External Review Committee, which started its work while this paper was in preparation, will be taken into account for the plan which the Management is preparing for June 2002.

Estimating of the overhead costs of building construction projects is an important task in the management of these projects. The quality of construction management depends heavily on their accurate costestimation. Construction costs prediction is a very difficult and sophisticated task especially when using manual calculation methods. This paper uses Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approach to develop a parametric cost-estimating model for site overhead cost in Egypt. Fifty-two actual real-life cases of building projects constructed in Egypt during the seven year period 2002-2009 were used as training materials. The neural network architecture is presented for the estimation of the site overhead costs as a percentage from the total project price.

Radiotherapy is a common treatment for many cancers, but up-to-date estimates of the costs of radiotherapy are lacking. In the present study, we estimated the unit costs of intensity-modulated radiotherapy (imrt) and 3-dimensional conformal radiotherapy (3D-crt) in Ontario. An activity-based costing model was developed to estimate the costs of imrt and 3D-crt in prostate cancer. It included the costs of equipment, staff, and supporting infrastructure. The framework was subsequently adapted to estimate the costs of radiotherapy in breast cancer and head-and-neck cancer. We also tested various scenarios by varying the program maturity and the use of volumetric modulated arc therapy (vmat) alongside imrt. From the perspective of the health care system, treating prostate cancer with imrt and 3D-crt respectively cost $12,834 and $12,453 per patient. The cost of radiotherapy ranged from $5,270 to $14,155 and was sensitive to analytic perspective, radiation technique, and disease site. Cases of head-and-neck cancer were the most costly, being driven by treatment complexity and fractions per treatment. Although imrt was more costly than 3D-crt, its cost will likely decline over time as programs mature and vmat is incorporated. Our costing model can be modified to estimate the costs of 3D-crt and imrt for various disease sites and settings. The results demonstrate the important role of capital costs in studies of radiotherapy cost from a health system perspective, which our model can accommodate. In addition, our study established the need for future analyses of imrt cost to consider how vmat affects time consumption.

Background Radiotherapy is a common treatment for many cancers, but up-to-date estimates of the costs of radiotherapy are lacking. In the present study, we estimated the unit costs of intensity-modulated radiotherapy (imrt) and 3-dimensional conformal radiotherapy (3D-crt) in Ontario. Methods An activity-based costing model was developed to estimate the costs of imrt and 3D-crt in prostate cancer. It included the costs of equipment, staff, and supporting infrastructure. The framework was subsequently adapted to estimate the costs of radiotherapy in breast cancer and head-and-neck cancer. We also tested various scenarios by varying the program maturity and the use of volumetric modulated arc therapy (vmat) alongside imrt. Results From the perspective of the health care system, treating prostate cancer with imrt and 3D-crt respectively cost $12,834 and $12,453 per patient. The cost of radiotherapy ranged from $5,270 to $14,155 and was sensitive to analytic perspective, radiation technique, and disease site. Cases of head-and-neck cancer were the most costly, being driven by treatment complexity and fractions per treatment. Although imrt was more costly than 3D-crt, its cost will likely decline over time as programs mature and vmat is incorporated. Conclusions Our costing model can be modified to estimate the costs of 3D-crt and imrt for various disease sites and settings. The results demonstrate the important role of capital costs in studies of radiotherapy cost from a health system perspective, which our model can accommodate. In addition, our study established the need for future analyses of imrt cost to consider how vmat affects time consumption. PMID:27330359

Using Levin and McEwan's (2001) "ingredients method," this study identified the major activities and associated costs of school levy campaigns in five districts. The ingredients were divided into one of five cost categories--human resources, facilities, fees, marketing, and supplies. As to overall costs of the campaigns, estimates ranged…

Agile practitioners have expressed concern over their inability to correctly estimatecosts associated with Agile web software development. This concern has become even more critical as costs associated with development continue to increase. As a result, significant research attention is now intended for gaining a better understanding of the web based projects in context with Agile software-development process as well as constructing and evaluating calibrated software costestimating tools. T...

This paper replicates the drug development costestimates of Joseph DiMasi and colleagues ("The Price of Innovation"), using their published costestimates along with information on success rates and durations from a publicly available data set. For drugs entering human clinical trials for the first time between 1989 and 2002, the paper estimated the cost per new drug to be 868 million dollars. However, our estimates vary from around 500 million dollars to more than 2,000 million dollars, depending on the therapy or the developing firm.

The spotted ratfish (Hydrolagus colliei) is a chimaeroid ranging from southeast Alaska to Baja California and found at depths of up to 1029 m. Despite being widespread and ubiquitous, few biological parameter estimates exist for spotted ratfish due to a lack of suitable ageing structures to estimate age and growth. We present preliminary results of age, growth and maturity estimates based on a new method in which tritor ridges are counted on the vomerine tooth plate. We also provide a method for estimating the number of worn tritor ridges based on tooth plate diameter measurements for the spotted ratfish. The tritor ridges are distinct bumps that are easy to identify and precision estimates between readers suggests that this method is transferable. Tritor ridges are a potential structure for estimating age in H. colliei and we provide recommendations for future research to improve the method. We sampled 269 spotted ratfish captured in trawl surveys off the coast British Columbia ranging in size from 74 to 495 mm in precaudal length (PCL). The estimated ages ranged from 2 to 16 years for males and from 2 to 21 years for females. The von Bertalanffy, von Bertalanffy with known size at birth, Gompertz and logistic growth models were fitted to the data. Based on Akaike information criterion corrected for sample size and number of parameters estimated, the logistic growth curve was selected as most suitable. The logistic growth model yielded the following parameter estimates: Linf=407.22 mm (PCL), k=0.23 year-1, t0=-7.06 years for males; L∞=494.52 mm (PCL), k=0.26 year-1, t0=-8.35 years for females. Estimated ages at 50% maturity were 12 and 14 years for males and females, respectively. Correspondingly, the size at 50% maturity estimates was smaller for males (302 mm, PCL) than females (393 mm, PCL). Both estimates are larger than those made for spotted ratfish off of California indicating regional differences in life history traits for this species. Our preliminary

The Mw 7.1 September 2010 Darfield earthquake, New Zealand, produced widespread damage and liquefaction ~40 km from the epicentre in Christchurch city. It was followed by the even more destructive Mw 6.2 February 2011 Christchurch aftershock directly beneath the city’s southern suburbs. Seismic data recorded during the two large events suggest that site effects contributed to the variations in ground motion observed throughout Christchurch city. We use densely-spaced aftershock recordings of the Darfield earthquake to investigate variations in local seismic site response within the Christchurch urban area. Following the Darfield main shock we deployed a temporary array of ~180 low-cost 14-bit MEMS accelerometers linked to the global Quake-Catcher Network (QCN). These instruments provided dense station coverage (spacing ~2 km) to complement existing New Zealand national network strong motion stations (GeoNet) within Christchurch city. Well-constrained standard spectral ratios were derived for GeoNet stations using a reference station on Miocene basalt rock in the south of the city. For noisier QCN stations, the method was adapted to find a maximum likelihood estimate of spectral ratio amplitude taking into account the variance of noise at the respective stations. Spectral ratios for QCN stations are similar to nearby GeoNet stations when the maximum likelihood method is used. Our study suggests dense low-cost accelerometer aftershock arrays can provide useful information on local-scale ground motion properties for use in microzonation. Preliminary results indicate higher amplifications north of the city centre and strong high-frequency amplification in the small, shallower basin of Heathcote Valley.

The Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Office of Renewable Power (ORP) has been tasked to provide effective program management and strategic direction for all of the DOE’s Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy’s (EERE’s) renewable power programs. The ORP’s efforts to accomplish this mission are aligned with national energy policies, DOE strategic planning, EERE’s strategic planning, Congressional appropriation, and stakeholder advice. ORP is supported by three renewable energy offices, of which one is the Solar Energy Technology Office (SETO) whose SunShot Initiative has a mission to accelerate research, development and large scale deployment of solar technologies in the United States. SETO has a goal of reducing the cost of Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) by 75 percent of 2010 costs by 2020 to reach parity with base-load energy rates, and to reduce costs 30 percent further by 2030. The SunShot Initiative is promoting the implementation of high temperature CSP with thermal energy storage allowing generation during high demand hours. The SunShot Initiative has funded significant research and development work on component testing, with attention to high temperature molten salts, heliostats, receiver designs, and high efficiency high temperature supercritical CO2 (sCO2) cycles. DOE retained Black & Veatch to support SETO’s SunShot Initiative for CSP solar power tower technology in the following areas: 1. Concept definition, including costs and schedule, of a flexible test facility to be used to test and prove components in part to support financing. 2. Concept definition, including costs and schedule, of an integrated high temperature molten salt (MS) facility with thermal energy storage and with a supercritical CO2 cycle generating approximately 10MWe. 3. Concept definition, including costs and schedule, of an integrated high temperature falling particle facility with thermal energy storage and with a supercritical CO2

A survey was conducted on power outage cost for industrial customers. 5139 factories, which are designated energy management factories in Japan, answered their power consumption and the loss of production value due to the power outage in an hour in summer weekday. The median of unit cost of power outage of whole sectors is estimated as 672 yen/kWh. The sector of services for amusement and hobbies and the sector of manufacture of information and communication electronics equipment relatively have higher unit cost of power outage. Direct damage cost from power outage in whole sectors reaches 77 billion yen. Then utilizing input-output analysis, we estimated indirect damage cost that is caused by the repercussion of production halt. Indirect damage cost in whole sectors reaches 91 billion yen. The sector of wholesale and retail trade has the largest direct damage cost. The sector of manufacture of transportation equipment has the largest indirect damage cost.

This investigation aims at providing an improved basis for assessing economic consequences of alternative Solid Waste Management (SWM) strategies for existing waste facilities. A bottom-up methodology was developed to determine marginal costs in existing facilities due to changes in the SWM system...... (CHP) and another with only power generation (Power), affected by diversion strategies of five waste fractions (fibres, plastic, metals, organics and glass), named "target fractions". The study assumed three possible responses to waste diversion in the WtE facilities: (i) biomass was added to maintain......, based on the determination of average costs in such waste facilities as function of key facility and waste compositional parameters. The applicability of the method was demonstrated through a case study including two existing Waste-to-Energy (WtE) facilities, one with co-generation of heat and power...

it would award a CPFF contract to what it knew to be the lowest cost contractor to avoid the risk premium of incentive contracts ( Samuelson , 1986... Samuelson , W. (1986). Bidding for contracts. Management Science, 32(12), 1533–1550. Scherer, F. M. (1964). The theory of contractual incentives for cost

Objective. To estimate the indirect costs generated by adults with cancer in Mexico from 2002-2020. Materials and methods. Using information from national sources and the national cancer incidence from GLOBOCAN, we estimated income lost due to premature death (ILPD), short-term benefits (STBs), disability pensions (DPs), and opportunity costs for the carer (OCCs) generated by patients with cancer. Amounts were reported in Mexican pesos. Results. We estimated 23 359 deaths and 216 679 new case...

Full Text Available The paper focuses on issues associated with the ecodesign of household appliances. The authors describe the estimation of recycling cost of end-of-life products using their original system supporting ecodesign. The costestimate was conducted during product design stage using the information stored in CAD 3D system. A sample estimate was made for a washing machine, fridge, kettle, and a hairdryer.

Background Racial discrimination is a pervasive social problem in several advanced countries such as the U.S., U.K., and Australia. Public health research also indicates a range of associations between exposure to racial discrimination and negative health, particularly, mental health including depression, anxiety, and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). However, the direct negative health impact of racial discrimination has not been costed so far although economists have previously estimat...

While examining the cost-benefit analysis related to public policy decisions in the Hungarian and international literature, this paper is looking for the answer to the question of what the methodological principles are according to which the benefit impacts can be determined. The processed Hungarian and English-language studies indicate that the theoretical-methodological questions of the determination of benefit impacts are not clear cut. The author has constructed a model that contains the ...

also researched through analyzing electricity rate data, CPV market research , and a firsthand account with an industry representative from a... capital costs and intermittency (DASN, 2012). While the price per kWh of solar is falling as the solar market continues to mature, solar installation...grow (evolve India). Retrieved from http://evolveindia.in/blog/2015/10/24/solar-tracker- market - expected-to-grow/ NREL. (2016). Best research cell

Background Racial discrimination is a pervasive social problem in several advanced countries such as the U.S., U.K., and Australia. Public health research also indicates a range of associations between exposure to racial discrimination and negative health, particularly, mental health including depression, anxiety, and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). However, the direct negative health impact of racial discrimination has not been costed so far although economists have previously estimat...

The Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Renewable Power (ORP) has been tasked to provide effective program management and strategic direction for all of the DOE’s Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy’s (EERE’s) renewable power programs. The ORP’s efforts to accomplish this mission are aligned with national energy policies, DOE strategic planning, EERE’s strategic planning, Congressional appropriation, and stakeholder advice. ORP is supported by three renewable energy offices, of which one is the Solar Energy Technology Office (SETO) whose SunShot Initiative has a mission to accelerate research, development and large scale deployment of solar technologies in the United States. SETO has a goal of reducing the cost of Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) by 75 percent of 2010 costs by 2020 to reach parity with base-load energy rates, and to reduce costs 30 percent further by 2030. The SunShot Initiative is promoting the implementation of high temperature CSP with thermal energy storage allowing generation during high demand hours. The SunShot Initiative has funded significant research and development work on component testing, with attention to high temperature molten salts, heliostats, receiver designs, and high efficiency high temperature supercritical CO2 (sCO2) cycles.

The report discusses Phase I (a conceptual design, preliminarycost, and evaluation study) of a program to demonstrate the recovery of energy from waste methane produced by anaerobic digestion of waste water treatment sludge. The fuel cell is being used for this application becau...

The report discusses Phase I (a conceptual design, preliminarycost, and evaluation study) of a program to demonstrate the recovery of energy from waste methane produced by anaerobic digestion of waste water treatment sludge. The fuel cell is being used for this application becau...

Congestion is the condition when the hourly traffic demand exceeds the maximum sustainable hourly throughout of the link. The aim of this research is to estimate the congestion cost of private passenger car users in central business district along the corridor of Malioboro, Yogyakarta, Indonesia. The amount of the congestion cost is the difference between perceived and actual generalized cost in traffic jam condition. In this paper, only the congestion costs of private passenger car users are...

This study is concerned with the understanding of some vital features of various life cycle costing methodologies and tools. Integrating these features with the refinery technical processes would assist in the development of a life cycle costing framework for oil refineries. The aim of this research is to develop a comprehensive life cycle costestimating framework for the evaluation of not only the total cost and system effectiveness of new refineries but also the revamping, and maintenance ...

Little is known about the cost of implementing chronic care models. We estimate the human resource cost of implementing a novel team-based chronic care model "Champion," at a large multispecialty group practice. We used activity-based costing to calculate costs from development through rollout and stabilization in 1 clinic with 12 000 chronic care patients. Data analyzed included Microsoft Outlook meeting metadata, supporting documents, and 2014 employee wages. Implementation took more than 29 months, involved 168 employees, and cost the organization $2 304 787. Payers may need to consider a mixed-payment model to support the both implementation and maintenance costs of team-based chronic care.

The purpose of this study was to develop a deterministic economic model to estimate the costs associated with (1) the component cost per case of hyperketonemia (HYK) and (2) the total cost per case of HYK when accounting for costs related to HYK-attributed diseases. Data from current literature was used to model the incidence and risks of HYK (defined as a blood β-hydroxybutyrate concentration≥1.2 mmol/L), displaced abomasa (DA), metritis, disease associations, milk production, culling, and reproductive outcomes. The component cost of HYK was estimated based on 1,000 calvings per year; the incidence of HYK in primiparous and multiparous animals; the percent of animals receiving clinical treatment; the direct costs of diagnostics, therapeutics, labor, and death loss; and the indirect costs of future milk production losses, future culling losses, and reproduction losses. Costs attributable to DA and metritis were estimated based on the incidence of each disease in the first 30 DIM; the number of cases of each disease attributable to HYK; the direct costs of diagnostics, therapeutics, discarded milk during treatment and the withdrawal period, veterinary service (DA only), and death loss; and the indirect costs of future milk production losses, future culling losses, and reproduction losses. The component cost per case of HYK was estimated at $134 and $111 for primiparous and multiparous animals, respectively; the average component cost per case of HYK was estimated to be $117. Thirty-four percent of the component cost of HYK was due to future reproductive losses, 26% to death loss, 26% to future milk production losses, 8% to future culling losses, 3% to therapeutics, 2% to labor, and 1% to diagnostics. The total cost per case of HYK was estimated at $375 and $256 for primiparous and multiparous animals, respectively; the average total cost per case of HYK was $289. Forty-one percent of the total cost of HYK was due to the component cost of HYK, 33% to costs

The report provides an estimate of the cost and associated schedule to construct the tunnel and shaft remedial shielding concept. The cost and schedule estimate is based on a preliminary concept intended to address the potential radiation effects on Line D and Line Facilities in event of a beam spill. The construction approach utilizes careful tunneling methods based on available excavation and ground support technology. The tunneling rates and overall productivity on which the cost and project schedule are estimated are based on conservative assumptions with appropriate contingencies to address the uncertainty associated with geological conditions. The report is intended to provide supplemental information which will assist in assessing the feasibility of the tunnel and shaft concept and justification for future development of this particular aspect of remedial shielding for Line D and Line D Facilities.

Full Text Available Objective. Treating complications associated with diabetes and hypertension imposes significant costs on health care systems. This study estimated the hospitalization costs for inpatients in a public hospital in Zimbabwe. Methods. The study was retrospective and utilized secondary data from medical records. Total hospitalization costs were estimated using generalized linear models. Results. The median cost and interquartile range (IQR for patients with diabetes, $994 (385–1553 mean $1319 (95% CI: 981–1657, was higher than patients with hypertension, $759 (494–1147 mean $914 (95% CI: 825–1003. Female patients aged below 65 years with diabetes had the highest estimated mean costs ($1467 (95% CI: 1177–1828. Wound care had the highest estimated mean cost of all procedures, $2884 (95% CI: 2004–4149 for patients with diabetes and $2239 (95% CI: 1589–3156 for patients with hypertension. Age below 65 years, medical procedures (amputation, wound care, dialysis, and physiotherapy, the presence of two or more comorbidities, and being prescribed two or more drugs were associated with significantly higher hospitalization costs. Conclusion. Our estimatedcosts could be used to evaluate and improve current inpatient treatment and management of patients with diabetes and hypertension and determine the most cost-effective interventions to prevent complications and comorbidities.

Most renewable portfolio standards (RPS) have five or more years of implementation experience, enabling an assessment of their costs and benefits. Understanding RPS costs and benefits is essential for policymakers evaluating existing RPS policies, assessing the need for modifications, and considering new policies. This study provides an overview of methods used to estimate RPS compliance costs and benefits, based on available data and estimates issued by utilities and regulators. Over the 2010-2012 period, average incremental RPS compliance costs in the United States were equivalent to 0.8% of retail electricity rates, although substantial variation exists around this average, both from year-to-year and across states. The methods used by utilities and regulators to estimate incremental compliance costs vary considerably from state to state and a number of states are currently engaged in processes to refine and standardize their approaches to RPS cost calculation. The report finds that state assessments of RPS benefits have most commonly attempted to quantitatively assess avoided emissions and human health benefits, economic development impacts, and wholesale electricity price savings. Compared to the summary of RPS costs, the summary of RPS benefits is more limited, as relatively few states have undertaken detailed benefits estimates, and then only for a few types of potential policy impacts. In some cases, the same impacts may be captured in the assessment of incremental costs. For these reasons, and because methodologies and level of rigor vary widely, direct comparisons between the estimates of benefits and costs are challenging.

Full Text Available Costestimation is one of the most critical tasks for building construction project management. The existing building construction costestimation methods of many countries, including China, require information from several sources, including material, labor, and equipment, and tend to be manual, time-consuming, and error-prone. To solve these problems, a building construction costestimation model based on ontology representation and reasoning is established, which includes three major components, i.e., concept model ontology, work item ontology, and construction condition ontology. Using this model, the costestimation information is modeled into OWL axioms and SWRL rules that leverage the semantically rich ontology representation to reason about costestimation. Based on OWL axioms and SWRL rules, the costestimation information can be translated into a set of concept models, work items, and construction conditions associated with the specific construction conditions. The proposed method is demonstrated in Protégé 3.4.8 through case studies based on the Measurement Specifications of Building Construction and Decoration Engineering taken from GB 50500-2013 (the Chinese national mandatory specifications. Finally, this research discusses the limitations of the proposed method and future research directions. The proposed method can help a building construction costestimator extract information more easily and quickly.

Enhanced Sludge Washing (ESW) has been selected to reduce the amount of sludge-based underground storage tank (UST) high-level waste at the Hanford site. During the past several years, studies have been conducted to determine the cost savings derived from the implementation of ESW. The tank waste inventory and ESW performance continues to be revised as characterization and development efforts advance. This study provides a new cost savings estimate based upon the most recent inventory and ESW performance revisions, and includes an estimate of the associated cost uncertainty. Whereas the author`s previous cost savings estimates for ESW were compared against no sludge washing, this study assumes the baseline to be simple water washing which more accurately reflects the retrieval activity along. The revised ESW cost savings estimate for all UST waste at Hanford is $6.1 B {+-} $1.3 B within 95% confidence. This is based upon capital and operating cost savings, but does not include development costs. The development costs are assumed negligible since they should be at least an order of magnitude less than the savings. The overall cost savings uncertainty was derived from process performance uncertainties and baseline remediation cost uncertainties, as determined by the author`s engineering judgment.

Process of demographic ageing, especially in recent decades, is steadily growing in dynamics and importance due to increasing health-related needs and expectations with regard to a guarantee of social services. Elaboration of the most effective model of care, tailored to Polish conditions, requires an estimation of actual costs of this care, including indirect costs which are greatly related to informal care. The fact that the costs of informal care are omitted, results from a determined approach to analyses. It is discussed only from a perspective of budget for health and does not cover societal aspects. In such situation, however, the costs borne by a receiver of services are neglected. As a consequence, the costs of informal care are underestimated or often excluded from calculations, even if they include indirect costs. Comprehensive methodological approach for estimating the costs of informal care seems to be important for a properly conducted economic evaluation in health care sector.

in the national immunisation programme of a low-income country. Furthermore, the aim was to examine the relative contribution of different components to the total cost. METHODS: Following the World Health Organization guidelines, we estimated the resource use and costs associated with rotavirus vaccine......OBJECTIVES: Worldwide, rotavirus infections cause approximately 453,000 child deaths annually. Two licensed vaccines could be life- and cost-saving in low-income countries where the disease burden is highest. The aim of our study was to estimate the total cost of implementing the rotavirus vaccine...... implementation, using Malawi as a case. The cost analysis was undertaken from a governmental perspective. All costs were calculated for a 5-years period (2012-2016) and discounted at 5%. The value of key input parameters was varied in a sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: The total cost of rotavirus vaccine...

Full Text Available Congestion is the condition when the hourly traffic demand exceeds the maximum sustainable hourly throughout of the link. The aim of this research is to estimate the congestion cost of private passenger car users in central business district along the corridor of Malioboro, Yogyakarta, Indonesia. The amount of the congestion cost is the difference between perceived and actual generalized cost in traffic jam condition. In this paper, only the congestion costs of private passenger car users are estimated, as they are expected to shift to buses. The generalized costs from origin zone i to destination zone j consist of vehicle operating cost, travel time cost, and pollution cost. This study shows that while the perceived generalized cost for private cars at Central Business District (CBD Malioboro is IDR 3101.00 per trip, the actual generalized cost in traffic jam condition is IDR 5802.00 per trip, giving the estimation of congestion cost in CBD Malioboro for private passenger car users as IDR 2701.00 per trip.

Full Text Available Accurate software costestimation is a vital task that affects the firm's software investment decisions before committing required resources to that project or bidding for a contract. This study proposes an improved Case-Based Reasoning (CBR approach integrated with multi-agent technology to retrieve similar projects from multi-organizational distributed datasets. The study explores the possibility of building a software costestimation model by collecting software cost data from distributed predefined project cost databases. The model applying CBR method to find similar projects in historical data derived from measured software projects developed by different organizations.

Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: To estimate the direct costs of hospital stays for premature newborns in the Interlagos Hospital and Maternity Center in São Paulo, Brazil and to assess the difference between the amount reimbursed to the hospital by the Unified Health System and the real cost of care for each premature newborn. METHODS: A cost-estimate study in which hospital and professional costs were estimated for premature infants born at 22 to 36 weeks gestation during the calendar year of 2004 and surviving beyond one hour of age. Direct costs included hospital services, professional care, diagnoses and therapy, orthotics, prosthetics, special materials, and blood products. Costs were estimated using tables published by the Unified Health System and the Brasindice as well as the list of medical procedures provided by the Brazilian Classification of Medical Procedures. RESULTS: The average direct cost of care for initial hospitalization of a premature newborn in 2004 was $2,386 USD. Total hospital expenses and professional services for all premature infants in this hospital were $227,000 and $69,500 USD, respectively. The costs for diagnostic testing and blood products for all premature infants totaled $22,440 and $1,833 USD. The daily average cost of a premature newborn weighing less than 1,000 g was $115 USD, and the daily average cost of a premature newborn weighing more than 2,500 g was $89 USD. Amounts reimbursed to the hospital by the Unified Health System corresponded to only 27.42% of the real cost of care. CONCLUSIONS: The cost of hospital stays for premature newborns was much greater than the amount reimbursed to the hospital by the Unified Health System. The highest costs corresponded to newborns with lower birth weight. Hospital costs progressively and discretely decreased as the newborns' weight increased.

The correlation coefficient, R-squared, of 0.726 indicates that this estimate has a fairly strong relationship with the actual project effort. Why...networks could be considered truly accurate, the results of this experiment indicate that networks are worth strong consideration. The best indication that...ExpOneM 1.20 1.12 1.05 (B" ehm , 1981.P& 117) This comparison between the genetic algorithm derived values and Boehm’s values for the coefficients and

This study estimates the avoidable and unavoidable costs of alcohol-related, liver cirrhosis inpatient care, controlling for the lag structure and period of decline in disease risk. Lag structures with different lengths are applied to the exposure to risk from alcohol consumption, which allows for differentiation between avoidable and unavoidable cases due to prior consumption. A lag length of 20 (men) and 23 (women) years (expected remaining life years) gives a total cost of 592 million SEK. Given alcohol consumption is reduced to zero, 72% of cost could potentially be avoided. It is important to account for the length and structure of the risk decline following a consumption change as this substantially affects the estimates. PMID:20717547

Extreme weather events in Australia are common and a large proportion of the population are exposed to such events. Therefore, there is great interest as to how these events will impact Australia's society and economy, which requires understanding the current and historical impact of disasters. Despite global efforts to record and cost disaster impacts, no standardised method of collecting and recording data retrospectively yet exists. The lack of comparability in turn produces quite different analyses of economic impacts. This paper examines five examples of aggregate cost and relative impacts of natural disasters in Australia, and comparisons between them reveal significant data shortcomings. The reliability of data sources, and the methodology employed to analyse them can have significant impacts on conclusions regarding the overall cost of disasters, the relative costs of different disaster types, and the distribution of costs across Australian states. We highlight difficulties with time series comparisons, further complicated by the interdependencies of the databases. We reiterate the need for consistent and comparable data collection and analysis, to respond to the increasing frequency and severity of disasters in Australia.

The demand for induced abortions in Uganda is high despite legal and moral proscriptions. Abortion seekers usually go to illegal, hidden clinics where procedures are performed in unhygienic environments by under-trained practitioners. These abortions, which are usually unsafe, lead to a high rate of severe complications and use of substantial, scarce healthcare resources. This study was performed to estimate the costs associated with induced abortions in Uganda. A decision tree was developed to represent the consequences of induced abortion and estimate the costs of an average case. Data were obtained from a primary chart abstraction study, an on-going prospective study, and the published literature. Societal costs, direct medical costs, direct non-medical costs, indirect (productivity) costs, costs to patients, and costs to the government were estimated. Monte Carlo simulation was used to account for uncertainty. The average societal cost per induced abortion (95% credibility range) was $177 ($140-$223). This is equivalent to $64 million in annual national costs. Of this, the average direct medical cost was $65 ($49-86) and the average direct non-medical cost was $19 ($16-$23). The average indirect cost was $92 ($57-$139). Patients incurred $62 ($46-$83) on average while government incurred $14 ($10-$20) on average. Induced abortions are associated with substantial costs in Uganda and patients incur the bulk of the healthcare costs. This reinforces the case made by other researchers--that efforts by the government to reduce unsafe abortions by increasing contraceptive coverage or providing safe, legal abortions are critical.

Background The demand for induced abortions in Uganda is high despite legal and moral proscriptions. Abortion seekers usually go to illegal, hidden clinics where procedures are performed in unhygienic environments by under-trained practitioners. These abortions, which are usually unsafe, lead to a high rate of severe complications and use of substantial, scarce healthcare resources. This study was performed to estimate the costs associated with induced abortions in Uganda. Methods A decision tree was developed to represent the consequences of induced abortion and estimate the costs of an average case. Data were obtained from a primary chart abstraction study, an on-going prospective study, and the published literature. Societal costs, direct medical costs, direct non-medical costs, indirect (productivity) costs, costs to patients, and costs to the government were estimated. Monte Carlo simulation was used to account for uncertainty. Results The average societal cost per induced abortion (95% credibility range) was $177 ($140-$223). This is equivalent to $64 million in annual national costs. Of this, the average direct medical cost was $65 ($49-86) and the average direct non-medical cost was $19 ($16-$23). The average indirect cost was $92 ($57-$139). Patients incurred $62 ($46-$83) on average while government incurred $14 ($10-$20) on average. Conclusion Induced abortions are associated with substantial costs in Uganda and patients incur the bulk of the healthcare costs. This reinforces the case made by other researchers--that efforts by the government to reduce unsafe abortions by increasing contraceptive coverage or providing safe, legal abortions are critical. PMID:22145859

Skin cancer is one of the most common cancers in the world. The increased incidence of skin cancer, combined with limited health care resources and tight budgetary conditions, has increased the importance of understanding the economic impact of skin cancer. This research estimates the economic cost of skin cancer in the Australian state of New South Wales. An incidence based approach is used to estimate lifetime costs of skin cancer. Both direct and indirect costs are considered - direct costs include resources associated with the management of skin cancer and indirect costs refer to productivity costs associated with morbidity and premature mortality. Diagnosis of skin cancer was determined according to ICD-10 codes using principal diagnosis. Linked administrative data and regression modelling are used to calculate costs; presented as Australian dollars for the year 2010. The human capital approach is used to value present and future productivity losses. The lifetime cost of the 150,000 incident cases of skin cancer diagnosed in NSW in 2010 is estimated at $536 million ($44,796 per melanoma and $2459 per non-melanoma). Direct costs accounted for 72 % of costs ($10,230 per melanoma and $2336 per non-melanoma) and indirect costs accounted for 28 % of costs ($34,567 per melanoma and $123 per non-melanoma). Direct costs are, on average, higher for females than males with indirect costs, on average, higher for males than females. This research provides new evidence on the economic cost of skin cancer and provides policy makers with information of the potential monetary savings that may arise from efforts to reduce the incidence of skin cancer.

The objective of this study is to estimate the mean annual social cost per adult person and the total social cost of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in Italy. A literature review was performed by searching primary economic studies on adults in order to collect cost data of RA in Italy in the last decade. The review results were merged with data of institutional sources for estimating - following the methodological steps of the cost of illness analysis - the social cost of RA in Italy. The mean annual social cost of RA was € 13,595 per adult patient in Italy. Affecting 259,795 persons, RA determines a social cost of € 3.5 billions in Italy. Non-medical direct cost and indirect cost represent the main cost items (48% and 31%) of the total social cost of RA in Italy. Based on these results, it appears evident that the assessment of the economic burden of RA solely based on direct medical costs evaluation gives a limited view of the phenomenon.

Full Text Available The objective of this study is to estimate the mean annual social cost per adult person and the total social cost of rheumatoid arthritis (RA in Italy. A literature review was performed by searching primary economic studies on adults in order to collect cost data of RA in Italy in the last decade. The review results were merged with data of institutional sources for estimating - following the methodological steps of the cost of illness analysis - the social cost of RA in Italy. The mean annual social cost of RA was € 13,595 per adult patient in Italy. Affecting 259,795 persons, RA determines a social cost of € 3.5 billions in Italy. Non-medical direct cost and indirect cost represent the main cost items (48% and 31% of the total social cost of RA in Italy. Based on these results, it appears evident that the assessment of the economic burden of RA solely based on direct medical costs evaluation gives a limited view of the phenomenon.

transport infrastructure projects, 9 projects out of 10 came out with budget overruns. As an example of cost overruns is the High Speed 1 in UK, the railway line between London and the British end of the Channel Tunnel. The project was delayed for 11 months and final construction costs were escalated to 80......Past experiences in the construction of high-speed railway projects demontrate either positive or negative financial outcomes of the actual project’s budget. Usually some uncertainty value is included into initial budget calculations. Uncertainty is related to the increase of material prices......, Italian projects have productive experiences in constructing and operating high-speed railway lines. The case study for this research is the first Danish high-speed railway line “The New Line Copenhagen-Ringsted”. The project’s aim is to avoid cost overruns and even make lower the final budget outcomes...

In this thesis the cost of so called RF units of CLIC particle collider was examined when RF units’ configuration was considered to be lengthened according to several alternative scenarios. According to current estimates these structures correspond to approximately 20 % of the total cost of CLIC collider and as such the savings achieved in their cost could be significant when total cost of CLIC project is looked into. The unit cost of longer RF units would be greater when compared to the baseline scenario but as smaller quantity would be required cost savings might be achieved. The aim was to find out if cost savings would accumulate and if so, how significant these savings might be. Research material used was mainly internal CERN resources such as earlier costestimates and tenders received from the industry for production of different components. Based on these costestimate models were created for three different configurations for lengthening the RF units. The research was limited to the cost of RF unit...

During the 2014-2015 project year, the focus of the TCASE project has shifted from collection of historical data from many sources to securing a data pipeline between TCASE and NASA's widely used TechPort system. TCASE v1.0 implements a data import solution that was achievable within the project scope, while still providing the basis for a long-term ability to keep TCASE in sync with TechPort. Conclusion: TCASE data quantity is adequate and the established data pipeline will enable future growth. Data quality is now highly dependent the quality of data in TechPort. Recommendation: Technology development organizations within NASA should continue to work closely with project/program data tracking and archiving efforts (e.g. TechPort) to ensure that the right data is being captured at the appropriate quality level. TCASE would greatly benefit, for example, if project cost/budget information was included in TechPort in the future.

Cost-effectiveness analysis is an important tool that can be applied to the evaluation of a health treatment or policy. When the observed costs and outcomes result from a nonrandomized treatment, making causal inference about the effects of the treatment requires special care. The challenges are compounded when the observation period is truncated for some of the study subjects. This paper presents a method of unbiased estimation of cost-effectiveness using observational study data that is not fully observed. The method-twice-weighted multiple interval estimation of a marginal structural model-was developed in order to analyze the cost-effectiveness of treatment protocols for advanced dementia residents living nursing homes when they become acutely ill. A key feature of this estimation approach is that it facilitates a sensitivity analysis that identifies the potential effects of unmeasured confounding on the conclusions concerning cost-effectiveness.

To estimate the indirect costs generated by adults with cancer in Mexico from 2002-2020. Using information from national sources and the national cancer incidence from GLOBOCAN, we estimated income lost due to premature death (ILPD), short-term benefits (STBs), disability pensions (DPs), and opportunity costs for the carer (OCCs) generated by patients with cancer. Amounts were reported in Mexican pesos. We estimated 23 359 deaths and 216 679 new cases of cancer by 2020, which would be associated with a total indirect cost of 20.15 billion Mexican pesos. Men are expected to generate 54.9% of these costs. ILPD is expected to comprise the highest percentage of the cost (60%), followed by OCCs (22%), STBs (17%) and DPs (1%). From an economic perspective, the results emphasize the need to strengthen preventive interventions and early detection of cancer among adults to reduce its effect on the productivity of Mexico.

A method is developed for the statistical estimation of the number of cracks to be repaired in service as well as the repair and the maintenance costs. The present approach accounts for the statistical distribution of the initial crack size, the statistical nature of the NDI technique used for detecting the crack, and the renewal process for the crack propagation of repaired cracks. The mean and the standard deviation of the cumulative number of cracks to be repaired are computed as a function of service time. The statistics of the costs of repair and maintenance, expressed in terms of the percentage of the cost of replacement, are estimated as a function of service time. The results of the present study provide relevant information for the decision of fleet management, the estimation of life cycle cost, and procurement specifications. The present study is essential to the design and cost optimization of aircraft structures.

The decommissioning is an important part of a nuclear power plant life cycle which may occur by technical, economical or safety reasons. Decommissioning requires carrying out a large number of tasks that should be planned in advance, involves cost evaluations, preparation of plans of activity and actual operational actions. Despite the large number of tasks, only part of them is relevant for costestimation purpose. The technical literature and international regulatory agencies suggest a variety of methods for decommissioning costestimation. Most of them require a very detailed knowledge of the plant and data available suitable for plants that are starting their decommissioning but not for those in the planning stage. The present work aims to apply fuzzy logic to sort out relevant items to costestimation in order to reduce the work effort involved. The scheme uses parametric equations for specific cost items, and is applied to specific parts of the process of nuclear power plant decommissioning. (author)

Telemedicine was used as a substitute for the telephone (usual care) for some acute care consultations from nurseries at four peripheral hospitals in Queensland. Over a 12-month study period, there were 19 cases of neonatal teleconsultation. Five (26%) cases of avoided infant transport were confirmed by independent assessment, four of which were avoided helicopter retrievals. We conducted two analyses. In the first, the actual costs of providing telemedicine at the study sites were compared with the actual savings associated with confirmed avoided infant transport and nursery costs. There was a net saving to the health system of 54,400 Australian Dollars (AUD) associated with the use of telemedicine over the 12-month period. In the second analysis, we estimated the potential savings that might have been achieved if telemedicine had been used for all retrieval consultations from the study sites. The total projected costs were AUD 64,969 while the projected savings were AUD 271,042, i.e. a projected net saving to the health system of AUD 206,073 through the use of telemedicine. A sensitivity analysis suggested that the threshold proportion of retrievals needed to generate telemedicine-related savings under the study conditions was 5%. The findings suggest that from the health-service perspective, the use of telemedicine for acute care neonatal consultation has substantial economic benefits.

Free Trade Agreements (FTA) attract significant interest, but after these treaties are signed not all exporters use them. We provide a model of heterogeneous utilization, also developing a novel method to estimate treaty-utilization costs. We later apply the model to estimate the evolution utilization costs for the FTA between the US and a small open economy, Chile. Consistent with other studies, we find that utilization is indeed partial (on average 67% on the first year of the treaty, with ...

Full Text Available This article applied the Black-Scholes option valuation formula to calculating high-cost illness reinsurance premiums in the Colombian health system. The coverage pattern used in reinsuring high-cost illnesses was replicated by means of a European call option contract. The option’s relevant variables and parameters were adapted to an insurance market context. The premium estimated by the BlackScholes method fell within the range of premiums estimated by the actuarial method.

Substantial attention has recently been focused on both the prevalence and consequences of mental illness. Generally, public interest in the costs of mental illness has been limited to the direct costs of treating the mentally ill. In this paper, we consider the magnitude and importance of a major component of the indirect costs of mental illness: employment and earnings losses. We first describe the technical difficulties involved in estimating these costs. We then describe new data and recent advances in the United States that have improved our ability to make such estimates. Our conclusions from the recent research are that each year in the United States 5-6 million workers between the ages of 16 and 54 lose, fail to seek, or cannot find employment as a consequence of mental illness. Among those who do work, we estimate that mental illness decreases annual income by an amount between $3,500 and $6,000. We then discuss an emerging challenge to the traditional method for arriving at such estimates: the friction cost approach. We describe both the conceptual and technical differences between the friction cost method and the traditional human capital approach. We conclude that while economic context has much to do with whether one relies on human capital or friction costestimates, each can offer useful information about labor market losses due to mental illness.

Estimating the cost to society of individual crimes is essential to the economic evaluation of many social programs, such as substance abuse treatment and community policing. A review of the crime-costing literature reveals multiple sources, including published articles and government reports, which collectively represent the alternative approaches for estimating the economic losses associated with criminal activity. Many of these sources are based upon data that are more than 10 years old, indicating a need for updated figures. This study presents a comprehensive methodology for calculating the cost to society of various criminal acts. Tangible and intangible losses are estimated using the most current data available. The selected approach, which incorporates both the cost-of-illness and the jury compensation methods, yields costestimates for more than a dozen major crime categories, including several categories not found in previous studies. Updated crime costestimates can help government agencies and other organizations execute more prudent policy evaluations, particularly benefit-cost analyses of substance abuse treatment or other interventions that reduce crime.

This paper provides an estimation of the lifetime health-care cost of HIV-infected children and an update of the cost-effectiveness of universal HIV-screening of pregnant women in Amsterdam (The Netherlands). During 2003-2005, we collected data concerning the prevalence of newly diagnosed HIV-infect

Estimates for deforestation and forest degradation were shown to account for about 17% of greenhouse gas emissions. The implementation of REDD is suggested to provide substantial emission reductions at low costs. Proper calculation of such a costs requires integrated modeling approach involving biop

Background: Given the paucity of relevant data, this study estimates the cost of intellectual disability (ID) to families and the government in Australia. Method: Family costs were collected via the Client Service Receipt Inventory, recording information relating to service use and personal expense as a consequence of ID. Government expenditure on…

NASA and the aerospace industry are extremely serious about reducing the cost and improving the performance of launch vehicles both manned or unmanned. In the aerospace industry, sharing infrastructure for manufacturing more than one type spacecraft is becoming a trend to achieve economy of scale. An example is the Boeing Decatur facility where both Delta II and Delta IV launch vehicles are made. The author is not sure how Boeing estimates the costs of each spacecraft made in the same facility. Regardless of how a contractor estimates the cost, NASA in its popular costestimating tool, NASA Air force Cost Modeling (NAFCOM) has to have a method built in to account for the effect of infrastructure sharing. Since there is no provision in the most recent version of NAFCOM2002 to take care of this, it has been found by the Engineering Cost Community at MSFC that the tool overestimates the manufacturing cost by as much as 30%. Therefore, the objective of this study is to develop a methodology to assess the impact of infrastructure sharing so that better operations costestimates may be made.

This paper provides an estimation of the lifetime health-care cost of HIV-infected children and an update of the cost-effectiveness of universal HIV-screening of pregnant women in Amsterdam (The Netherlands). During 2003-2005, we collected data concerning the prevalence of newly diagnosed HIV-infect

This paper provides an estimation of the lifetime health-care cost of HIV-infected children and an update of the cost-effectiveness of universal HIV-screening of pregnant women in Amsterdam (The Netherlands). During 2003-2005, we collected data concerning the prevalence of newly diagnosed HIV-infect

Describes two computer programs for use in process design courses: an easy-to-use equipment costestimation program based on latest cost correlations available and an economic evaluation program which calculates two profitability indices. Comparisons between programed and hand-calculated results are included. (JM)

AIM: To design a medical cost calculator and show that diabetes care is beyond reach of the majority particularlypatients with complications.METHODS: Out-of-pocket expenditures of patients for medical treatment of type-2 diabetes were estimated based on price data collected in Benin,Burkina Faso,Guinea and Mali. A detailed protocol for realistic medical care of diabetes and its complications in the African context was defined. Care components were based on existing guidelines,published data and clinical experience. Prices were obtained in public and private health facilities. The cost calculator used Excel. The cost for basic management of uncomplicated diabetes was calculated per person and per year. Incremental costs were also computed per annum for chronic complications and per episode for acute complications. RESULTS: Wide variations of estimated care costs were observed among countries and between the public and private healthcare system. The minimum estimatedcost for the treatment of uncomplicated diabetes(in the public sector) would amount to 21%-34% of the country’s gross national income per capita,26%-47% in the presence of retinopathy,and above 70% for nephropathy,the most expensive complication. CONCLUSION: The study provided objective evidence for the exorbitant medical cost of diabetes considering that no medical insurance is available in the study countries. Although the calculator only estimates the cost of inaction,it is innovative and of interest for several stakeholders.

The detailed costs of the schemes are given in this Appendix. The conceptual designs of the sea electrodes for the schemes are also described. The costestimates for the electrodes were based on these conceptual designs. A cost comparison of ac and dc transmission for 10 MW from Ketchikan to Tolstoi Bay is given along with an example outlining the procedure for selecting the optimum dc cable size.

Full Text Available Industrial application of life-cycle cost analysis (LCCA is somewhat limited, with techniques deemed overly theoretical, resulting in a reluctance to realise (and pass onto the client the advantages to be gained from objective (LCCA comparison of (subcomponent material specifications. To address the need for a user-friendly structured approach to facilitate complex processing, the work described here develops a new, accessible framework for LCCA of construction projects; it acknowledges Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs to compute the whole-cost(s of construction and uses the concept of cost significant items (CSI to identify the main cost factors affecting the accuracy of estimation. ANNs is a powerful means to handle non-linear problems and subsequently map between complex input/output data, address uncertainties. A case study documenting 20 building projects was used to test the framework and estimate total running costs accurately. Two methods were used to develop a neural network model; firstly a back-propagation method was adopted (using MATLAB SOFTWARE; and secondly, spread-sheet optimisation was conducted (using Microsoft Excel Solver. The best network was established as consisting of 19 hidden nodes, with the tangent sigmoid used as a transfer function of NNs model for both methods. The results find that in both neural network models, the accuracy of the developed NNs model is 1% (via Excel-solver and 2% (via back-propagation respectively.

In the product development cycle several engineering tasks like design, process planning and production planning have to be executed. The execution of these tasks mainly involves information processing and decision-making. Because costs is an important factor in manufacturing, adequate information a

In the product development cycle several engineering tasks like design, process planning and production planning have to be executed. The execution of these tasks mainly involves information processing and decision-making. Because costs is an important factor in manufacturing, adequate information

The importance of cost planning for solid waste management (SWM) in industrialising regions (IR) is not well recognised. The approaches used to estimatecosts of SWM can broadly be classified into three categories - the unit cost method, benchmarking techniques and developing cost models using sub-approaches such as cost and production function analysis. These methods have been developed into computer programmes with varying functionality and utility. IR mostly use the unit cost and benchmarking approach to estimate their SWM costs. The models for costestimation, on the other hand, are used at times in industrialised countries, but not in IR. Taken together, these approaches could be viewed as precedents that can be modified appropriately to suit waste management systems in IR. The main challenges (or problems) one might face while attempting to do so are a lack of cost data, and a lack of quality for what data do exist. There are practical benefits to planners in IR where solid waste problems are critical and budgets are limited.

To estimate the annual cost of treating patients with cirrhosis at the Mexican Institute of Social Security (IMSS per its abbreviation in Spanish). The annual cost of treating three stages of cirrhosis (Child-Pugh A, Child-Pugh B and Child-Pugh C) was estimated using micro-costing techniques and medical experts. These results were compared and contrasted with prices reported by IMSS. The annual cost of treatment, in USA dollars, by Child-Pugh stage was: a) micro-costing results: $1110.17 stage A, $549.55 stage B and $348.16 stage C; b) opinion of medical experts: $1 633.64, $6564.04 and $19660.35, respectively; and c) IMSS costs: $4269.00, $16949.63 and $30249.25, respectively. The cost of treating patients with cirrhosis is considerable, and costs increase as the disease worsens. Costestimates vary depending on the source of information, and the methodology used. There are discrepancies between the procedures reported in medical records and treatment recommendations by IMSS liver experts.

Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: As high out-of-pocket healthcare expenses pose heavy financial burden on the families, Government of India is considering a variety of financing and delivery options to universalize health care services. Hence, an estimate of the cost of delivering universal health care services is needed. METHODS: We developed a model to estimate recurrent and annual costs for providing health services through a mix of public and private providers in Chandigarh located in northern India. Necessary health services required to deliver good quality care were defined by the Indian Public Health Standards. National Sample Survey data was utilized to estimate disease burden. In addition, morbidity and treatment data was collected from two secondary and two tertiary care hospitals. The unit cost of treatment was estimated from the published literature. For diseases where data on treatment cost was not available, we collected data on standard treatment protocols and cost of care from local health providers. RESULTS: We estimate that the cost of universal health care delivery through the existing mix of public and private health institutions would be INR 1713 (USD 38, 95%CI USD 18-73 per person per annum in India. This cost would be 24% higher, if branded drugs are used. Extrapolation of these costs to entire country indicates that Indian government needs to spend 3.8% (2.1%-6.8% of the GDP for universalizing health care services. CONCLUSION: The cost of universal health care delivered through a combination of public and private providers is estimated to be INR 1713 per capita per year in India. Important issues such as delivery strategy for ensuring quality, reducing inequities in access, and managing the growth of health care demand need be explored.

Traffic crashes and crime both impose significant economic and social burdens through injury and loss of life, as well as property damage and loss. Efforts to reduce crashes and crime often result in competing demands on limited public resources. Comparable and up-to-date cost data on crashes and crime contribute to informed decisions about allocation of these resources in important ways. As a first step, cost data provide information about the magnitude of the problems of crashes and crime by allowing us to estimate associated dollar losses to society. More importantly, cost data on crashes and crime are essential to evaluating costs and benefits of various policy alternatives that compete for resources. This paper presents the first comparable comprehensive costestimates for crashes and crime and applies them to crash and crime incidence data for Michigan to generate dollar losses for the state. An example illustrates how costestimates can be used to evaluate costs and benefits of crash-reduction and crime-reduction policies in making resource allocation decisions. Traffic crash and selected index crime incidence data from the calendar year 1988 were obtained from the Michigan State Police. Costs for crashes and index crimes were generated and applied to incidence data to estimate dollar losses from crashes and index crimes for the state of Michigan. In 1988, index crimes in Michigan resulted in $0.8 billion in monetary costs and $2.4 billion in total monetary and nonmonetary quality-of-life costs (using the willingness-to-pay approach). Traffic crashes in Michigan resulted in $2.3 billion in monetary costs and $7.1 billion in total monetary and nonmonetary quality-of-life costs, nearly three times the costs of index crimes. Based on dollar losses to the state, the magnitude of the problem of traffic crashes clearly exceeded that of index crimes in Michigan in 1988. From a policy perspective, summing the total dollar losses from crashes or crime is of less

Abstract Objective To cross-validate the global cost of scaling up child survival interventions to achieve the fourth Millennium Development Goal (MDG4) as estimated by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2007 by using the latest country-provided data and new assumptions. Methods After the main cost categories for each country were identified, validation questionnaires were sent to 32 countries with high child mortality. Publicly available estimates for disease incidence, intervention coverage, prices and resources for individual-level and programme-level activities were validated against local data. Nine updates to the 2007 WHO model were generated using revised assumptions. Finally, estimates were extrapolated to 75 countries and combined with costestimates for immunization and malaria programmes and for programmes for the prevention of mother-to-child transmission of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Findings Twenty-six countries responded. Adjustments were largest for system- and programme-level data and smallest for patient data. Country-level validation caused a 53% increase in original costestimates (i.e. 9 billion 2004 United States dollars [US$]) for 26 countries owing to revised system and programme assumptions, especially surrounding community health worker costs. The additional effect of updated population figures was small; updated epidemiologic figures increased costs by US$ 4 billion (+15%). New unit prices in the 26 countries that provided data increased estimates by US$ 4.3 billion (+16%). Extrapolation to 75 countries increased the original price estimate by US$ 33 billion (+80%) for 2010–2015. Conclusion Country-level validation had a significant effect on the costestimate. Price adaptations and programme-related assumptions contributed substantially. An additional 74 billion US$ 2005 (representing a 12% increase in total health expenditure) would be needed between 2010 and 2015. Given resource constraints, countries will need to

Estimated future energy cost savings associated with the development of cost-competitive solar thermal technologies (STT) are discussed. Analysis is restricted to STT in electric applications for 16 high-insolation/high-energy-price states. The fuel price scenarios and three 1990 STT system costs are considered, reflecting uncertainty over future fuel prices and STT cost projections. STT R&D is found to be unacceptably risky for private industry in the absence of federal support. Energy cost savings were projected to range from $0 to $10 billion (1990 values in 1981 dollars), dependng on the system cost and fuel price scenario. Normal R&D investment risks are accentuated because the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel can artificially manipulate oil prices and undercut growth of alternative energy sources. Federal participation in STT R&D to help capture the potential benefits of developing cost-competitive STT was found to be in the national interest.

Estimated future energy cost savings associated with the development of cost-competitive solar thermal technologies (STT) are discussed. Analysis is restricted to STT in electric applications for 16 high-insolation/high-energy-price states. The fuel price scenarios and three 1990 STT system costs are considered, reflecting uncertainty over future fuel prices and STT cost projections. STT R&D is found to be unacceptably risky for private industry in the absence of federal support. Energy cost savings were projected to range from $0 to $10 billion (1990 values in 1981 dollars), dependng on the system cost and fuel price scenario. Normal R&D investment risks are accentuated because the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel can artificially manipulate oil prices and undercut growth of alternative energy sources. Federal participation in STT R&D to help capture the potential benefits of developing cost-competitive STT was found to be in the national interest.

To determine the optimal suppression strategy for escaped wildfires, federal land managers are requiredto conduct a wildland fire situation analysis (WFSA). As part of the WFSA process, fire managers estimate final fire size and suppression costs. Estimates from 58 WFSAs conducted during the 2002 fire season are compared to actual outcomes. Results indicate that...

This article is prepared as a guideline regarding how to apply the work difficult factor (WDF) when it comes to the estimates of the decommissioning costs. Although several cases of the decommissioning costestimates have been made for a few commercial nuclear power plants, the different technical, site-specific economic assumptions used make it difficult to interpret those costestimates and compare them with that of Kori-1. In addition, it is clear that we are supposed to experience difficulties being created in the process of the Kori-1 and the virtual inaccessibility to the limited areas at the pre-decommissioning stage. Estimating decommissioning costs is one of the most crucial processes since it encompasses all the spectrum of decommissioning activities from the planning to the last evaluation on whether the decommissioning has successfully been proceeded from the safety and economic perspectives. Here I suggested the activity dependent costs is only related to WDFs of the incumbent plant planning or undergone to be decommissioned since as a matter of fact, estimating WDFs is the core process to articulately scrutinize the practical costs to apply to Kori-1 project.

Full Text Available Service provider costs for vaccine delivery have been well documented; however, vaccine recipients' costs have drawn less attention. This research explores the private household out-of-pocket and opportunity costs incurred to receive free oral cholera vaccine during a mass vaccination campaign in rural Odisha, India.Following a government-driven oral cholera mass vaccination campaign targeting population over one year of age, a questionnaire-based cross-sectional survey was conducted to estimate private household costs among vaccine recipients. The questionnaire captured travel costs as well as time and wage loss for self and accompanying persons. The productivity loss was estimated using three methods: self-reported, government defined minimum daily wages and gross domestic product per capita in Odisha.On average, families were located 282.7 (SD = 254.5 meters from the nearest vaccination booths. Most family members either walked or bicycled to the vaccination sites and spent on average 26.5 minutes on travel and 15.7 minutes on waiting. Depending upon the methodology, the estimated productivity loss due to potential foregone income ranged from $0.15 to $0.29 per dose of cholera vaccine received. The private household cost of receiving oral cholera vaccine constituted 24.6% to 38.0% of overall vaccine delivery costs.The private household costs resulting from productivity loss for receiving a free oral cholera vaccine is a substantial proportion of overall vaccine delivery cost and may influence vaccine uptake. Policy makers and program managers need to recognize the importance of private costs and consider how to balance programmatic delivery costs with private household costs to receive vaccines.

Service provider costs for vaccine delivery have been well documented; however, vaccine recipients' costs have drawn less attention. This research explores the private household out-of-pocket and opportunity costs incurred to receive free oral cholera vaccine during a mass vaccination campaign in rural Odisha, India. Following a government-driven oral cholera mass vaccination campaign targeting population over one year of age, a questionnaire-based cross-sectional survey was conducted to estimate private household costs among vaccine recipients. The questionnaire captured travel costs as well as time and wage loss for self and accompanying persons. The productivity loss was estimated using three methods: self-reported, government defined minimum daily wages and gross domestic product per capita in Odisha. On average, families were located 282.7 (SD = 254.5) meters from the nearest vaccination booths. Most family members either walked or bicycled to the vaccination sites and spent on average 26.5 minutes on travel and 15.7 minutes on waiting. Depending upon the methodology, the estimated productivity loss due to potential foregone income ranged from $0.15 to $0.29 per dose of cholera vaccine received. The private household cost of receiving oral cholera vaccine constituted 24.6% to 38.0% of overall vaccine delivery costs. The private household costs resulting from productivity loss for receiving a free oral cholera vaccine is a substantial proportion of overall vaccine delivery cost and may influence vaccine uptake. Policy makers and program managers need to recognize the importance of private costs and consider how to balance programmatic delivery costs with private household costs to receive vaccines.

The U.S. Army uses the Integrated Training Area Management program for managing training land. One of the major objectives of the Integrated Training Area Management program has been to develop a method for estimating training land carrying capacity in a sustainable manner. The Army Training and Testing Area Carrying Capacity methodology measures training load in terms of Maneuver Impact Miles. One Maneuver Impact Mile is the equivalent impact of an M1A2 tank traveling one mile while participating in an armor battalion field training exercise. The Army Training and Testing Area Carrying Capacity methodology is also designed to predict land maintenance costs in terms of dollars per Maneuver Impact Mile. The overall cost factor is calculated using the historical cost of land maintenance practices and the effectiveness of controlling erosion. Because land maintenance costs and effectiveness are influenced by the characteristics of the land, Army Training and Testing Area Carrying Capacity cost factors must be developed for each ecological region of the country. Costs for land maintenance activities are presented here for the semiarid and arid regions of the United States. Five ecoregions are recognized, and average values for reclamation activities are presented. Because there are many variables that can influence costs, ranges for reclamation activities are also presented. Costs are broken down into six major categories: seedbed preparation, fertilization, seeding, planting, mulching, and supplemental erosion control. Costs for most land reclamation practices and materials varied widely within and between ecological provinces. Although regional cost patterns were evident for some practices, the patterns were not consistent between practices. For the purpose of estimating land reclamation costs for the Army Training and Testing Area Carrying Capacity methodology, it may be desirable to use the ''Combined Average'' of all provinces found in the last

Full Text Available Without a doubt optimum performance is possible in the context of a planned development project organized failure to comply with a standard patterndoes not guarantee when a project based on financial forecasts and with the required quality. in this study, based on the standards of project management enumerating the factors for implementation of a project the study is the flagship project of Ilam and finally the implementation of the project as stated in the standard are investigated. in this research project emphasizing the preliminaryestimates (estimates and time and workload has been considered and compared to the existing. according to the research findings in 83 percent of projects, project was not according to preliminary financial estimates. 100% of projects have been wrong to predict the time and projects have progressed according to preliminary forecast and in 66 percent of projects supporting private sector investment and hinder the progress of the project is appropriate and the project framework was unchanged.

Full Text Available The effective estimation of costs is crucial to the success of construction projects. Costestimates are used to evaluate, approve and/or fund projects. Organizations use some form of classification system to identify the various types of estimates that may be prepared during the lifecycle of a project. This research presents a parametric-cost model for pump station projects. Fourteen factors have been identified as important to the influence of the cost of pump station projects. A data set that consists of forty-four pump station projects (fifteen water and twenty-nine waste water are collected to build a Case-Based Reasoning (CBR library and to test its performance. The results obtained from the CBR tool are processed and adopted to improve the accuracy of the results. A numerical example is presented to demonstrate the development of the effectiveness of the tool.

Full Text Available Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR imaging system is one of the most effective way for Earth observation. The aim of this study is to present the preliminary results about estimating soil moisture using L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR data. Full-polarimetric (HH, HV, VV, VH ALOS-2 data, acquired on 22.04.2016 with the incidence angle of 30.4o, were used in the study. Simultaneously with the SAR acquisition, in-situ soil moisture samples over bare agricultural lands were collected and evaluated using gravimetric method. Backscattering coefficients for all polarizations were obtained and linear regression analysis was carried out with in situ moisture measurements. The best correlation coefficient was observed with VV polarization. Cross-polarized backscattering coefficients were not so sensitive to soil moisture content. In the study, it was observed that soil moisture maps can be retrieved with the accuracy about 14% (RMSE.

Almost 15 million Germans may suffer from untreated hypertension. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the cost-effectiveness of a national hypertension treatment program compared to no program. A Markov decision model from the perspective of the statutory health insurance (SHI) was built. All data were taken from secondary sources. The target population consists of hypertensive male and female patients at high or low risk for cardiovascular events at different age groups (40-49, 50-59, and 60-69 years). The analysis shows fairly moderate cost-effectiveness ratios even for low-risk groups (less than 12,000 euros per life year gained). In women at high risk antihypertensive treatment even leads to savings. This suggests that a national hypertension treatment program provides good value for money. Given the considerable costs of the program itself, any savings from avoiding long-term consequences of hypertension are likely to be offset, however.

Coal gasification processes are crucial to decarbonisation in the power sector. While underground coal gasification (UCG) and integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) are different in terms of the site of gasification, they have considerable similarities in terms of the types of gasifiers used. Of course, UCG offers some additional advantages such as reduction of the fugitive methane emissions accompanying the coal mining process. Nevertheless, simulation of IGCC plants involving surface coal gasification is likely to give reasonable indication of the 3E (efficiency, economics and emissions) prospects of the gasification pathway towards electricity. This paper will aim at Estimating 3E impacts (efficiency, environment, economics) of gasification processes using simulation carried out in the Integrated Environmental Control Model (IECM) software framework. Key plant level controls which will be studied in this paper will be based on Indian financial regulations and operating costs which are specific to the country. Also, impacts of CO2 capture and storage (CCS) in these plants will be studied. The various parameters that can be studied are plant load factor, impact of coal quality and price, type of CO2 capture process, capital costs etc. It is hoped that relevant insights into electricity generation from gasification may be obtained with this paper.

The high prevalence of alcohol and drug abuse and mental illness imposes a substantial financial burden on those affected and on society. The authors present estimates of the economic costs from these causes for 1985 and 1988, based on current and reliable data available from national surveys and the use of new costing methodology. The total losses to the economy related to alcohol and drug abuse and mental illness for 1988 are estimated at $273.3 billion. The estimate includes $85.8 billion ...

Revised guidelines are presented for estimating annual nonfuel operation and maintenance costs for large steam-electric power plants, specifically light-water-reactor plants and coal-fired plants. Previous guidelines were published in October 1975 in ERDA 76-37, a Procedure for Estimating Nonfuel Operating and Maintenance Costs for Large Steam-Electric Power Plants. Estimates for coal-fired plants include the option of limestone slurry scrubbing for flue gas desulfurization. A computer program, OMCOST, is also presented which covers all plant options.

It is very difficult for project managers to develop accurate cost and schedule estimates for large, complex software development projects. None of the approaches or tools available today can estimate the true cost of software with any high degree of accuracy early in a project. This paper provides an approach that utilizes a software development process simulation model that considers and conveys the level of uncertainty that exists when developing an initial estimate. A NASA project will be analyzed using simulation and data from the Software Engineering Laboratory to show the benefits of such an approach.

To estimate the proportion of cases and costs of the most common cancers among children aged 0 to 14 years (leukemia, lymphoma, and brain or central nervous system tumors) that were attributable to preventable environmental pollution in California in 2013. We conducted a literature review to identify preventable environmental hazards associated with childhood cancer. We combined risk estimates with California-specific exposure prevalence estimates to calculate hazard-specific environmental attributable fractions (EAFs). We combined hazard-specific EAFs to estimate EAFs for each cancer and calculated an overall EAF. Estimated economic costs included annual (indirect and direct medical) and lifetime costs. Hazards associated with childhood cancer risks included tobacco smoke, residential exposures, and parental occupational exposures. Estimated EAFs for leukemia, lymphoma, and brain or central nervous system cancer were 21.3% (range = 11.7%-30.9%), 16.1% (range = 15.0%-17.2%), and 2.0% (range = 1.7%-2.2%), respectively. The combined EAF was 15.1% (range = 9.4%-20.7%), representing $18.6 million (range = $11.6 to $25.5 million) in annual costs and $31 million in lifetime costs. Reducing environmental hazards and exposures in California could substantially reduce the human burden of childhood cancer and result in significant annual and lifetime savings.

GEOCOM, a computer code that provides life cycle cost/benefit analysis of completion technologies applied to geothermal wells, is used to study fracture stimulation techniques. it is estimated that stimulation must increase flow by roughly tons per $100,000 in order to be cost effective. Typically, hydraulic fracturing costs $100,000 to $500,000 per well, and the attempts at stimulation to date have generally not achieved the desired flow increases. The cost effectiveness of hydraulic fracturing is considered for several geothermal reservoirs.

Query processing over the Internet involving autonomous data sources is a major task in data integration. It requires the estimatedcosts of possible queries in order to select the best one that has the minimum cost. In this context, the cost of a query is affected by three factors: network congestion, server contention state, and complexity of the query. In this paper, we study the effects of both the network congestion and server contention state on the cost of a query. We refer to these tw...

Resource costs of meeting EU WFD ecological status requirements at the river basin scale are estimated by comparing net benefits of water use given ecological status constraints to baseline water use values. Resource costs are interpreted as opportunity costs of water use arising from water...... an allocation is found that maximizes net benefits given WFD requirements. Water use values are estimated for urban/domestic, agricultural, industrial, livestock, and tourism water users. Ecological status is estimated using metrics that relate average monthly river flow volumes to the natural hydrologic regime....... Ecological status is only estimated with respect to hydrologic regime; other indicators are ignored in this analysis. The decision variable in the optimization is the price of water, which is used to vary demands using consumer and producer water demand functions. The price-based optimization approach...

Full Text Available Abstract Background Cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs can provide useful information to policymakers concerned with the broad allocation of resources as well as to local decision makers choosing between different options for reducing the burden from a single disease. For the latter, it is important to use country-specific data when possible and to represent cost differences between countries that might make one strategy more or less attractive than another strategy locally. As part of a CEA of cervical cancer screening in five developing countries, we supplemented limited primary cost data by developing other estimation techniques for direct medical and non-medical costs associated with alternative screening approaches using one of three initial screening tests: simple visual screening, HPV DNA testing, and cervical cytology. Here, we report estimation methods and results for three cost areas in which data were lacking. Methods To supplement direct medical costs, including staff, supplies, and equipment depreciation using country-specific data, we used alternative techniques to quantify cervical cytology and HPV DNA laboratory sample processing costs. We used a detailed quantity and price approach whose face validity was compared to an adaptation of a US laboratory estimation methodology. This methodology was also used to project annual sample processing capacities for each laboratory type. The cost of sample transport from the clinic to the laboratory was estimated using spatial models. A plausible range of the cost of patient time spent seeking and receiving screening was estimated using only formal sector employment and wages as well as using both formal and informal sector participation and country-specific minimum wages. Data sources included primary data from country-specific studies, international databases, international prices, and expert opinion. Costs were standardized to year 2000 international dollars using inflation adjustment and

Full Text Available Abstract Background Several previous global REDD+ cost studies have been conducted, demonstrating that payments for maintaining forest carbon stocks have significant potential to be a cost-effective mechanism for climate change mitigation. These studies have mostly followed highly aggregated top-down approaches without estimating the full range of REDD+ costs elements, thus underestimating the actual costs of REDD+. Based on three REDD+ pilot projects in Tanzania, representing an area of 327,825 ha, this study explicitly adopts a bottom-up approach to data assessment. By estimating opportunity, implementation, transaction and institutional costs of REDD+ we develop a practical and replicable methodological framework to consistently assess REDD+ cost elements. Results Based on historical land use change patterns, current region-specific economic conditions and carbon stocks, project-specific opportunity costs ranged between US$ -7.8 and 28.8 tCOxxxx for deforestation and forest degradation drivers such as agriculture, fuel wood production, unsustainable timber extraction and pasture expansion. The mean opportunity costs for the three projects ranged between US$ 10.1 – 12.5 tCO2. Implementation costs comprised between 89% and 95% of total project costs (excluding opportunity costs ranging between US$ 4.5 - 12.2 tCO2 for a period of 30 years. Transaction costs for measurement, reporting, verification (MRV, and other carbon market related compliance costs comprised a minor share, between US$ 0.21 - 1.46 tCO2. Similarly, the institutional costs comprised around 1% of total REDD+ costs in a range of US$ 0.06 – 0.11 tCO2. Conclusions The use of bottom-up approaches to estimate REDD+ economics by considering regional variations in economic conditions and carbon stocks has been shown to be an appropriate approach to provide policy and decision-makers robust economic information on REDD+. The assessment of opportunity costs is a crucial first step to

In this paper, a constrained, fault-tolerant, low-cost navigation system is proposed for ground vehicle's applications. The system is designed to provide a vehicle navigation solution at 50 Hz by fusing the measurements of the inertial measurement unit (IMU), the global positioning system (GPS) receiver, and the velocity measurement from wheel encoders. A high-integrity estimation filter is proposed to obtain a high accuracy state estimate. The filter utilizes vehicle velocity constraints measurement to enhance the estimation accuracy. However, if the velocity measurement of the encoder is biased, the accuracy of the estimate is degraded. Therefore, a noise estimation algorithm is proposed to estimate a possible bias in the velocity measurement of the encoder. Experimental tests, with simulated biases on the encoder's readings, are conducted and the obtained results are presented. The experimental results show the enhancement in the estimation accuracy when the simulated bias is estimated using the proposed method.

The costestimation and economic evaluation methodologies presented are consistent with industry practice for assessing capital investment requirements and operating costs of coal conversion systems. All values stated are based on January, 1980 dollars with appropriate recognition of the time value of money. Evaluation of project economic feasibility can be considered a two step process (subject to considerable refinement). First, the costs of the project must be quantified and second, the price at which the product can be manufacturd must be determined. These two major categories are discussed. The summary of methodology is divided into five parts: (1) systems costs, (2)instant plant costs, (3) annual operating costs, (4) escalation and discounting process, and (5) product pricing.

MESSOC (Model for Estimating Space Station Operations Costs) is the result of a multi-year effort by NASA to understand and model the mature operations cost of Space Station Freedom. This paper focuses on MESSOC's ability to contribute to life-cycle cost analyses through its logistics equations and databases. Together, these afford MESSOC the capability to project not only annual logistics costs for a variety of Space Station scenarios, but critical non-cost logistics results such as annual Station maintenance crewhours, upweight/downweight, and on-orbit sparing availability as well. MESSOC results using current logistics databases and baseline scenario have already shown important implications for on-orbit maintenance approaches, space transportation systems, and international operations cost sharing.

The cost-effectiveness ratio is a popular statistic that is used by policy makers to decide which programs are cost-effective in the public health sector. Recently, the net monetary benefit has been proposed as an alternative statistical summary measure to overcome the limitations associated with the cost-effectiveness ratio. Research on using the net monetary benefit to assess the cost-effectiveness of therapies in non-randomized studies has yet to be done. Propensity scores are useful in estimating adjusted effectiveness of programs that have non-randomized or quasi-experimental designs. This article introduces the use of propensity score adjustment in cost-effectiveness analyses to estimate net monetary benefits for non-randomized studies. The uncertainty associated with the net monetary benefit estimate is evaluated using cost-effectiveness acceptability curves. Our method is illustrated by applying it to SEER-Medicare data for muscle invasive bladder cancer to determine the most cost-effective treatment protocol.

Assess the socioeconomic costs of smoking in Lebanon and understand the tobacco market and identify the winners and losers from the Lebanese tobacco trade. We take a close look at the market for tobacco and related markets to identify the main stakeholders and estimate the direct costs and benefits of tobacco. We also estimate lower bounds for the costs of tobacco, in terms of lost productivity, the cost of medical treatment, lost production due to premature death, and environmental damage. The paucity of data means our costestimates are conservative lower bounds and we explicitly list the effects that we are unable to include. We identify the main actors in the tobacco trade: the Régie (the state-owned monopoly which regulates the tobacco trade), tobacco farmers, international tobacco companies, local distributors, retailers, consumers, and advertising firms. We identify as proximate actors the Ministries of Finance and Health, employers, and patients of smoking-related illnesses. In 2008, tobacco trade in Lebanon led to a total social cost of $326.7 million (1.1% of GDP). Low price tags on imported cigarettes not only increase smoking prevalence, but they also result in a net economic loss. Lebanese policymakers should consider the overall deficit from tobacco trade and implement the guidelines presented in the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control to at once increase government revenue and reduce government outlays, and save the labor market and the environment substantial costs.

This effort improves the quantitative information available for use in evaluating actions that alter health risks due to population exposure to ionizing radiation. To project the potential future costs of changes in health effects risks, Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) constructed a probabilistic computer model, Health Effects Costs Model (HECOM), which utilizes the health effect incidence estimates from accident consequences models to calculate the discounted sum of the economic costs associated with population exposure to ionizing radiation. Application of HECOM to value-impact and environmental impact analyses should greatly increase the quality of the information available for regulatory decision making. Three major types of health effects present risks for any population sustaining a significant radiation exposure: acute radiation injuries (and fatalities), latent cancers, and impairments due to genetic effects. The literature pertaining to both incidence and treatment of these health effects was reviewed by PNL and provided the basis for developing economic costestimates. The economic costs of health effects estimated by HECOM represent both the value of resources consumed in diagnosing, treating, and caring for the patient and the value of goods not produced because of illness or premature death due to the health effect. Additional costs to society, such as pain and suffering, are not included in the PNL economic cost measures since they do not divert resources from other uses, are difficult to quantify, and do not have a value observable in the marketplace. 83 refs., 3 figs., 19 tabs.

The Reusable Reentry Satellite (RRS) program was initiated to provide life science investigators relatively inexpensive, frequent access to space for extended periods of time with eventual satellite recovery on earth. The RRS will provide an on-orbit laboratory for research on biological and material processes, be launched from a number of expendable launch vehicles, and operate in Low-Altitude Earth Orbit (LEO) as a free-flying unmanned laboratory. SAIC's design will provide independent atmospheric reentry and soft landing in the continental U.S., orbit for a maximum of 60 days, and will sustain three flights per year for 10 years. The Reusable Reentry Vehicle (RRV) will be 3-axis stabilized with artificial gravity up to 1.5g's, be rugged and easily maintainable, and have a modular design to accommodate a satellite bus and separate modular payloads (e.g., rodent module, general biological module, ESA microgravity botany facility, general botany module). The purpose of this System CostEstimate Document is to provide a Life Cycle CostEstimate (LCCE) for a NASA RRS Program using SAIC's RRS design. The estimate includes development, procurement, and 10 years of operations and support (O&S) costs for NASA's RRS program. The estimate does not include costs for other agencies which may track or interface with the RRS program (e.g., Air Force tracking agencies or individual RRS experimenters involved with special payload modules (PM's)). The life cycle costestimate extends over the 10 year operation and support period FY99-2008.

Objective To estimate the unit costs of administering intravenous (IV) biological agents in day hospitals (DHs) in the Spanish National Health System. Patients and methods Data were obtained from 188 patients with rheumatoid arthritis, collected from nine DHs, receiving one of the following IV therapies: infliximab (n=48), rituximab (n=38), abatacept (n=41), or tocilizumab (n=61). The fieldwork was carried out between March 2013 and March 2014. The following three groups of costs were considered: 1) structural costs, 2) material costs, and 3) staff costs. Staff costs were considered a fixed cost and were estimated according to the DH theoretical level of activity, which includes, as well as personal care of each patient, the DH general activities (complete imputation method, CIM). In addition, an alternative calculation was performed, in which the staff costs were considered a variable cost imputed according to the time spent on direct care (partial imputation method, PIM). All costs were expressed in euros for the reference year 2014. Results The average total cost was €146.12 per infusion (standard deviation [SD] ±87.11; CIM) and €29.70 per infusion (SD ±11.42; PIM). The structure-related costs per infusion varied between €2.23 and €62.35 per patient and DH; the cost of consumables oscillated between €3.48 and €20.34 per patient and DH. In terms of the care process, the average difference between the shortest and the longest time taken by different hospitals to administer an IV biological therapy was 113 minutes. Conclusion The average total cost of infusion was less than that normally used in models of economic evaluation coming from secondary sources. This cost is even less when the staff costs are imputed according to the PIM. A high degree of variability was observed between different DHs in the cost of the consumables, in the structure-related costs, and in those of the care process. PMID:28356746

Doubts of whether the risks related to severe accidents in nuclear reactors are indeed very low were raised after the nuclear accident at Fukushima Daiichi in 2011. Risk estimations of severe accidents in nuclear power plants involve both probability and consequence assessment of such events. Among the ways to display risks, risk curves are tools that express the frequency of exceeding a certain magnitude of consequence. Societal risk is often represented graphically in a FN-curve, a type of risk curve, which displays the probability of having N or more fatalities per year, as a function of N, on a double logarithmic scale. The FN-curve, originally introduced for the assessment of the risks in the nuclear industry through the U.S.NRC Reactor Safety Study WASH-1400 (1975), is used in various countries to express and limit risks of hazardous activities. This first study estimated an expected rate of core damage equal to 5x10{sup -5} by reactor-year and suggested an upper bound of 3x10{sup -4} by reactor-year. A more recent report issued by Electric Power Research Institute - EPRI (2008) estimates a figure of the order of 2x10{sup -5} by reactor-year. The Fukushima nuclear accident apparently implies that the observed core damage frequency is higher than that predicted by these probabilistic safety assessments. Therefore, this paper presents a preliminary analyses of the FN-curves related to severe nuclear reactor accidents, taking into account a combination of available data of past accidents, probability modelling to estimate frequencies, and expert judgments. (author)

Meningococcal disease is a serious and potentially life-threatening infection that is caused by the bacterium Neisseria meningitidis (N. meningitidis), and it can cause meningitis, meningococcaemia outbreaks and epidemics. The disease is fatal in 9-12% of cases and with a death rate of up to 40% among patients with meningococcaemia. The objective of this study was to estimate the costs of a meningococcal outbreak that occurred in a Caribbean city of Colombia. We contacted experts involved in the outbreak and asked them specific questions about the diagnosis and treatment for meningococcal cases during the outbreak. Estimates of costs of the outbreak were also based on extensive review of medical records available during the outbreak. The costs associated with the outbreak were divided into the cost of the disease response phase and the cost of the disease surveillance phase. The costs associated with the outbreak control and surveillance were expressed in US$ (2011) as cost per 1,000 inhabitants. The average age of patients was 4.6 years (SD 3.5); 50% of the cases died; 50% of the cases were reported to have meningitis (3/6); 33% were diagnosed with meningococcaemia and myocarditis (2/6); 50% of the cases had bacteraemia (3/6); 66% of the cases had a culture specimen positive for Neisseria meningitidis; 5 of the 6 cases had RT-PCR positive for N. meningitidis. All N. meningitidis were serogroup B; 50 doses of ceftriaxone were administered as prophylaxis. Vaccine was not available at the time. The costs associated with control of the outbreak were estimated at US$ 0.8 per 1,000 inhabitants, disease surveillance at US$ 4.1 per 1,000 inhabitants, and healthcare costs at US$ 5.1 per 1,000 inhabitants. The costs associated with meningococcal outbreaks are substantial, and the outbreaks should be prevented. The mass chemoprophylaxis implemented helped control the outbreak.

ABSTRACT Meningococcal disease is a serious and potentially life-threatening infection that is caused by the bacterium Neisseria meningitidis (N. meningitidis), and it can cause meningitis, meningococcaemia outbreaks and epidemics. The disease is fatal in 9-12% of cases and with a death rate of up to 40% among patients with meningococcaemia. The objective of this study was to estimate the costs of a meningococcal outbreak that occurred in a Caribbean city of Colombia. We contacted experts involved in the outbreak and asked them specific questions about the diagnosis and treatment for meningococcal cases during the outbreak. Estimates of costs of the outbreak were also based on extensive review of medical records available during the outbreak. The costs associated with the outbreak were divided into the cost of the disease response phase and the cost of the disease surveillance phase. The costs associated with the outbreak control and surveillance were expressed in US$ (2011) as cost per 1,000 inhabitants. The average age of patients was 4.6 years (SD 3.5); 50% of the cases died; 50% of the cases were reported to have meningitis (3/6); 33% were diagnosed with meningococcaemia and myocarditis (2/6); 50% of the cases had bacteraemia (3/6); 66% of the cases had a culture specimen positive for Neisseria meningitidis; 5 of the 6 cases had RT-PCR positive for N. meningitidis. All N. meningitidis were serogroup B; 50 doses of ceftriaxone were administered as prophylaxis. Vaccine was not available at the time. The costs associated with control of the outbreak were estimated at US$ 0.8 per 1,000 inhabitants, disease surveillance at US$ 4.1 per 1,000 inhabitants, and healthcare costs at US$ 5.1 per 1,000 inhabitants. The costs associated with meningococcal outbreaks are substantial, and the outbreaks should be prevented. The mass chemoprophylaxis implemented helped control the outbreak. PMID:25395916

Full Text Available Construction projects usually involve high investments. It is, therefore, a risky adventure for companies as actual costs of construction projects nearly always exceed the planed scenario. This is due to the various risks and the large uncertainty existing within this industry. Determination and quantification of risks and their impact on project costs within the construction industry is described to be one of the most difficult areas. This paper analyses how the cost of construction projects can be estimated using Monte Carlo Simulation. It investigates if the different cost elements in a construction project follow a specific probability distribution. The research examines the effect of correlation between different project costs on the result of the Monte Carlo Simulation. The paper finds out that Monte Carlo Simulation can be a helpful tool for risk managers and can be used for costestimation of construction projects. The research has shown that cost distributions are positively skewed and cost elements seem to have some interdependent relationships.

During a study of the spatial and temporal patterns of desmosponge (Porifera, Demospongiae) recruitment on rocky and coral reef habitats of Santa Marta, Colombian Caribbean Sea, preliminary attempts were made to estimate actual settlement rates from short-term (1 to a few days) recruitment censuses. Short-term recruitment rates on black, acrylic plastic plates attached to open, non-cryptic substratum by anchor screws were low and variable (0 5 recruits/plate in 1 2 days, sets of n=5 10 plates), but reflected the depth and seasonal trends found using mid-term (1 to a few months) censusing intervals. Moreover, mortality of recruits during 1 2 day intervals was low (0 12%). Thus, short-term censusing intervals can be used to estimate actual settlement rates. To be able to make statistical comparisons, however, it is necessary to increase the number of recruits per census by pooling data of n plates per set, and to have more than one set per site or treatment.

Combining with working experience,the paper introduces building engineering cost elements under BOQ background,identifies costestimation scope and principles,and analyzes costestimation contents including labor,materials,machineries and measures,which has laid a foundation for cost control.%结合工作经验，介绍了建筑工程中定额及工程量清单计价背景下的成本要素，明确了成本测算的范围与原则，并对成本测算中人、材、机械、措施四大要素中常见的一些情况进行了分析，为成本的控制工作奠定了基础。

This book discusses state estimation and control procedures for a low-cost unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV). The authors consider the use of robust adaptive Kalman filter algorithms and demonstrate their advantages over the optimal Kalman filter in the context of the difficult and varied environments in which UAVs may be employed. Fault detection and isolation (FDI) and data fusion for UAV air-data systems are also investigated, and control algorithms, including the classical, optimal, and fuzzy controllers, are given for the UAV. The performance of different control methods is investigated and the results compared. State Estimation and Control of Low-Cost Unmanned Aerial Vehicles covers all the important issues for designing a guidance, navigation and control (GNC) system of a low-cost UAV. It proposes significant new approaches that can be exploited by GNC system designers in the future and also reviews the current literature. The state estimation, control and FDI methods are illustrated by examples and MATLAB...

An engineering and economic study of the development of geothermal energy in St. Lucia has given costestimates for electricity and process heat produced from the geothermal energy, identified additional industries that are worthy of further examination, and developed methods for examining the economic impact of this new energy source. Costs have been estimated for electricity produced from geothermal energy, by diesel engines used only during peak power demand, by diesel engines producing the total electricity requirement, by an oil-fired steam-power plant, and by a coal-fired steam-power plant. Costs have also been estimated for thermal energy to be used for industrial process heat under various conditions of transport distances, capacity factors, and temperature requirements. Several industries that may be attracted to St. Lucia by the development of geothermal energy have been identified.

Full Text Available Abstract Background Breast cancer is the first cancer in women both in incidence and mortality. The treatment of breast cancer benefited from the progress of chemotherapy and targeted therapies, but there was a parallel increase in treatment costs. Despite a relatively high incidence of many sites of cancer, so far, there is no national register for this disease in Morocco. The main goal of this paper is to estimate the total cost of chemotherapy in the early stages of breast cancer due to its frequency and the chances of patients being cured. This study provides health decision-makers with a first estimate of costs and the opportunity to achieve the optimal use of available data to estimate the needs of antimitotics and trastuzumab in Morocco. Method We start by evaluating the individual cost according to the therapeutic sub-groups, namely: 1. Patients needing chemotherapy with only anthracycline-based therapy. 2. Patients needing chemotherapy with both anthracycline and taxane but without trastuzumab. 3. Patients needing trastuzumab in addition to chemotherapy. For each sub-group, the protocol of treatment is described, and the individual costs per unit, and for the whole cycle, are evaluated. Then we estimate the number of women suffering from breast cancer on the basis of two data bases available in Morocco. Finally, we calculate the total annual cost of treatment of breast cancer in Morocco. Results The total cost of breast cancer in Morocco is given in Moroccan dirhams (MAD, the US dollar at the current exchange rate (MAD 10 = USD 1.30 and in international dollars or purchasing power parity (MAD 10 = PPP 1.95. The cost of a therapy with trastuzumab is 8.4 times the cost of a sequential chemotherapy combining anthracycline and taxane, and nearly 60 times the cost of chemotherapy based on anthracycline alone. Globally, between USD 13.3 million and USD 28.6 million need to be devoted every year by the Moroccan health authorities to treat

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Antiretroviral Treatment (ART significantly reduces HIV transmission. We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis of the impact of expanded ART in South Africa. METHODS: We model a best case scenario of 90% annual HIV testing coverage in adults 15-49 years old and four ART eligibility scenarios: CD4 count <200 cells/mm(3 (current practice, CD4 count <350, CD4 count <500, all CD4 levels. 2011-2050 outcomes include deaths, disability adjusted life years (DALYs, HIV infections, cost, and cost per DALY averted. Service and ART costs reflect South African data and international generic prices. ART reduces transmission by 92%. We conducted sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: Expanding ART to CD4 count <350 cells/mm(3 prevents an estimated 265,000 (17% and 1.3 million (15% new HIV infections over 5 and 40 years, respectively. Cumulative deaths decline 15%, from 12.5 to 10.6 million; DALYs by 14% from 109 to 93 million over 40 years. Costs drop $504 million over 5 years and $3.9 billion over 40 years with breakeven by 2013. Compared with the current scenario, expanding to <500 prevents an additional 585,000 and 3 million new HIV infections over 5 and 40 years, respectively. Expanding to all CD4 levels decreases HIV infections by 3.3 million (45% and costs by $10 billion over 40 years, with breakeven by 2023. By 2050, using higher ART and monitoring costs, all CD4 levels saves $0.6 billion versus current; other ART scenarios cost $9-194 per DALY averted. If ART reduces transmission by 99%, savings from all CD4 levels reach $17.5 billion. Sensitivity analyses suggest that poor retention and predominant acute phase transmission reduce DALYs averted by 26% and savings by 7%. CONCLUSION: Increasing the provision of ART to <350 cells/mm3 may significantly reduce costs while reducing the HIV burden. Feasibility including HIV testing and ART uptake, retention, and adherence should be evaluated.

This thesis focuses on environmental impact reduction and life-cycle costestimations in building procurement. The aim for the work presented in this thesis is to contribute to the understanding of whether costs and environmental impact of a building can be integrated in a, from the users perspective, practical model applied for tender evaluation. The model should also be able to use as a base of evaluating different solutions in the design phase. Specifically this means to: Increase knowledg...

Default values for various data provided by MACCS2(MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System Version 2) such as population, weather, food, and economic cost are far from current domestic condition. In the case of economic cost data, related default values came from MACCS and WASH-1400. KAERI (Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute) has been developed a Korean-specific level 3 PSA (Probabilistic Safety Assessment) code package based on MACCS2 to reflect domestic condition for off-site consequence analysis. To this end, we performed a study on the domestic specific technical issues for level 3 PSA, which are a dose conversion factor, food chain model, atmospheric dispersion model, and domestic-specific economic effect model. Based on the study, we developed a level 3 PSA code, so-called KOSCAMACCS2 (Korean-specific Off-Site Consequence Analysis based on MACCS2). The purpose of this paper is to introduce economic cost variable provided by KOSCA-MACCS2 and application of Korean-specific data to the related economic costestimation with KOSCA-MACCS2. In this paper, we introduced economic cost variable provided by KOSCA-MACCS2 and suggested the application plan of Korean-specific data to the related economic costestimation. To this end, we considered data sources for those economic cost variables to reflect Korea-specific features such as data by Statistics Korea or Bank of Korea etc. For the decontamination related variables, we applied foreign literatures to apply data, which are Extern-E and UNESCO Chernobyl Forum data. Based on the data resources we estimated data for input variables related to economic costestimation.

This deliverable is the Final Report for Task 1, CostEstimates of Small Modular Systems, as part of NREL Award ACO-5-44027, ''Equipment Design and CostEstimation for Small Modular Biomass Systems, Synthesis Gas Cleanup and Oxygen Separation Equipment''. Subtask 1.1 looked into processes and technologies that have been commercially built at both large and small scales, with three technologies, Fluidized Catalytic Cracking (FCC) of refinery gas oil, Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) of Natural Gas, and Natural Gas Liquids (NGL) Expanders, chosen for further investigation. These technologies were chosen due to their applicability relative to other technologies being considered by NREL for future commercial applications, such as indirect gasification and fluidized bed tar cracking. Research in this subject is driven by an interest in the impact that scaling has on the cost and major process unit designs for commercial technologies. Conclusions from the evaluations performed could be applied to other technologies being considered for modular or skid-mounted applications.

Abstract Biorefineries offer a promising alternative to fossil‐based processing industries and have undergone rapid development in recent years. Limited financial resources and stringent company budgets necessitate quick capital estimation of pioneering biorefinery projects at the early stages of their conception to screen process alternatives, decide on project viability, and allocate resources to the most promising cases. Biorefineries are capital‐intensive projects that involve state‐of‐the‐art technologies for which there is no prior experience or sufficient historical data. This work reviews existing rapid costestimation practices, which can be used by researchers with no previous costestimating experience. It also comprises a comparative study of six cost methods on three well‐documented biorefinery processes to evaluate their accuracy and precision. The results illustrate discrepancies among the methods because their extrapolation on biorefinery data often violates inherent assumptions. This study recommends the most appropriate rapid cost methods and urges the development of an improved early‐stage capital costestimation tool suitable for biorefinery processes. PMID:27484398

A simulation model for estimating compliance behavior and resulting costs at U.S. Community Water Suppliers is developed and applied to the evaluation of a more stringent maximum contaminant level (MCL) for arsenic. Probability distributions of source water arsenic concentrations are simulated using a statistical model conditioned on system location (state) and source water type (surface water or groundwater). This model is fit to two recent national surveys of source waters, then applied with the model explanatory variables for the population of U.S. Community Water Suppliers. Existing treatment types and arsenic removal efficiencies are also simulated. Utilities with finished water arsenic concentrations above the proposed MCL are assumed to select the least cost option compatible with their existing treatment from among 21 available compliance strategies and processes for meeting the standard. Estimatedcosts and arsenic exposure reductions at individual suppliers are aggregated to estimate the national compliance cost, arsenic exposure reduction, and resulting bladder cancer risk reduction. Uncertainties in the estimates are characterized based on uncertainties in the occurrence model parameters, existing treatment types, treatment removal efficiencies, costs, and the bladder cancer dose-response function for arsenic.

This project implements a economic methodology to measure the marginal abatement costs of pollution by measuring the lost revenue implied by an incremental reduction in pollution. It utilizes observed performance, or `best practice`, of facilities to infer the marginal abatement cost. The initial stage of the project is to use data from an earlier published study on productivity trends and pollution in electric utilities to test this approach and to provide insights on its implementation to issues of cost-benefit analysis studies needed by the Department of Energy. The basis for this marginal abatement costestimation is a relationship between the outputs and the inputs of a firm or plant. Given a fixed set of input resources, including quasi-fixed inputs like plant and equipment and variable inputs like labor and fuel, a firm is able to produce a mix of outputs. This paper uses this theoretical view of the joint production process to implement a methodology and obtain empirical estimates of marginal abatement costs. These estimates are compared to engineering estimates.

A nuclear weapons accident is an extremely unlikely event due to the extensive care taken in operations. However, under some hypothetical accident conditions, plutonium might be dispersed to the environment. This would result in costs being incurred by the government to remediate the site and compensate for losses. This study is a multi-disciplinary evaluation of the potential scope of the post-accident response that includes technical factors, current and proposed legal requirements and constraints, as well as social/political factors that could influence decision making. The study provides parameters that can be used to assess economic costs for accidents postulated to occur in urban areas, Midwest farmland, Western rangeland, and forest. Per-area remediation costs have been estimated, using industry-standard methods, for both expedited and extended remediation. Expedited remediation costs have been evaluated for highways, airports, and urban areas. Extended remediation costs have been evaluated for all land uses except highways and airports. The inclusion of costestimates in risk assessments, together with the conventional estimation of doses and health effects, allows a fuller understanding of the post-accident environment. The insights obtained can be used to minimize economic risks by evaluation of operational and design alternatives, and through development of improved capabilities for accident response.

Full Text Available Abstract Background School closure is a key component of many countries' plans to mitigate the effect of an influenza pandemic. Although a number of studies have suggested that such a policy might reduce the incidence, there are no published studies of the cost of such policies. This study attempts to fill this knowledge gap Methods School closure is expected to lead to significant work absenteeism of working parents who are likely to be the main care givers to their dependent children at home. The cost of absenteeism due to school closure is calculated as the paid productivity loss of parental absenteeism during the period of school closure. The cost is estimated from societal perspective using a nationally representative survey. Results The results show that overall about 16% of the workforce is likely to be the main caregiver for dependent children and therefore likely to take absenteeism. This rises to 30% in the health and social care sector, as a large proportion of the workforce are women. The estimatedcosts of school closure are significant, at £0.2 bn – £1.2 bn per week. School closure is likely to significantly exacerbate the pressures on the health system through staff absenteeism. Conclusion The estimates of school closure associated absenteeism and the projected cost would be useful for pandemic planning for business continuity, and for cost effectiveness evaluation of different pandemic influenza mitigation strategies.

Background: With the exception of Canada, all countries with universal health insurance systems provide universal coverage of prescription drugs. Progress toward universal public drug coverage in Canada has been slow, in part because of concerns about the potential costs. We sought to estimate the cost of implementing universal public coverage of prescription drugs in Canada. Methods: We used published data on prescribing patterns and costs by drug type, as well as source of funding (i.e., private drug plans, public drug plans and out-of-pocket expenses), in each province to estimate the cost of universal public coverage of prescription drugs from the perspectives of government, private payers and society as a whole. We estimated the cost of universal public drug coverage based on its anticipated effects on the volume of prescriptions filled, products selected and prices paid. We selected these parameters based on current policies and practices seen either in a Canadian province or in an international comparator. Results: Universal public drug coverage would reduce total spending on prescription drugs in Canada by $7.3 billion (worst-case scenario $4.2 billion, best-case scenario $9.4 billion). The private sector would save $8.2 billion (worst-case scenario $6.6 billion, best-case scenario $9.6 billion), whereas costs to government would increase by about $1.0 billion (worst-case scenario $5.4 billion net increase, best-case scenario $2.9 billion net savings). Most of the projected increase in government costs would arise from a small number of drug classes. Interpretation: The long-term barrier to the implementation of universal pharmacare owing to its perceived costs appears to be unjustified. Universal public drug coverage would likely yield substantial savings to the private sector with comparatively little increase in costs to government. PMID:25780047

Wind power is ideally a renewable energy with no fuel cost, but has a risk to reduce reliability of the whole system because of uncertainty of the output. If the reserve of the system is increased, the reliability of the system may be improved. However, the cost would be increased. Therefore...... the reserve needs to be estimated considering the trade-off between reliability and economic aspects. This paper suggests a methodology to estimate the appropriate reserve, when wind power is connected to the power system. As a case study, when wind power is connected to power system of Korea, the effects...

Full Text Available This paper discusses the development and evaluation of an estimation model of manufacturing costs of piping elements through the application of a Reduced Multivariate Polynomial (RMP. The model allows obtaining accurate estimations, even when enough and adequate information is not available. This situation typically occurs in the early stages of the design process of industrial products. The experimental evaluations show that the approach is capable, with a low complexity, of reducing uncertainties and to predict costs with significant precision. Comparisons with a neural network showed also that the RMP performs better considering a set of classical performance measures with the corresponding lower complexity and higher accuracy.

The purpose of this document is to describe and illustrate a methodology for estimating the cost-effectiveness of coordinated demand-side management (DSM) programs, extending California {open_quotes}standard practice{close_quotes} to address the special evaluation challenges arising from these programs. A coordinated DSM program is one that is co-administered by a state or local government agency and a gas or electric utility. Although the primary subject of this document is coordinated low-income programs, the principles are easily extended to estimating the cost-effectiveness of all coordinated programs.

In this paper, we propose a new method to estimate the relationship between software reliability and software development cost taking into account the complexity for developing the software system and the size of software intended to develop during the implementation phase of the software development life cycle. On the basis of estimated relationship, a set of empirical data has been used to validate the correctness of the proposed model by comparing the result with the other existing models. The outcome of this work shows that the method proposed here is a relatively straightforward one in formulating the relationship between reliability and cost during implementation phase.

This report contains contributions by Bechtel Group, Inc. to Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) for the final report on the conceptual design of the Mirror Fusion Technology Demonstration Facility (TDF). Included in this report are the following contributions: (1) conceptual capital costestimate, (2) structural design, and (3) plot plan and plant arrangement drawings. The conceptual capital costestimate is prepared in a format suitable for inclusion as a section in the TDF final report. The structural design and drawings are prepared as partial inputs to the TDF final report section on facilities design, which is being prepared by the FEDC.

Road traffic crashes are a global major problem, and should be treated as a shared responsibility. In Malaysia, road accident tragedies kill 6,917 people and injure or disable 17,522 people in year 2012, and government spent about RM9.3 billion in 2009 which cost the nation approximately 1 to 2 percent loss of gross domestic product (GDP) reported annually. The current cost ratio for fatal and non-fatal accident used by Ministry of Works Malaysia simply based on arbitrary value of 6:4 or equivalent 1.5:1 depends on the fact that there are six factors involved in the calculation accident cost for fatal accident while four factors for non-fatal accident. The simple indication used by the authority to calculate the cost ratio is doubted since there is lack of mathematical and conceptual evidence to explain how this ratio is determined. The main aim of this study is to determine the new accident cost ratio for fatal and non-fatal accident in Malaysia based on quantitative statistical approach. The cost ratio distributions will be estimated based on Weibull distribution. Due to the unavailability of official accident cost data, insurance claim data both for fatal and non-fatal accident have been used as proxy information for the actual accident cost. There are two types of parameter estimates used in this study, which are maximum likelihood (MLE) and robust estimation. The findings of this study reveal that accident cost ratio for fatal and non-fatal claim when using MLE is 1.33, while, for robust estimates, the cost ratio is slightly higher which is 1.51. This study will help the authority to determine a more accurate cost ratio between fatal and non-fatal accident as compared to the official ratio set by the government, since cost ratio is an important element to be used as a weightage in modeling road accident related data. Therefore, this study provides some guidance tips to revise the insurance claim set by the Malaysia road authority, hence the appropriate method

This report presents estimates of the annual costs of operating spent fuel pools at nuclear power stations after the final shutdown of one or more onsite reactors. Its purpose is to provide basic spent fuel storage cost information for use in evaluating DOE's reference nuclear waste management system, as well as alternate systems. The basic model of an independent spent fuel storage installation (ISFSI) used in this study was based on General Electric Corporation's Morris Operation and was modified to reflect mean storage capabilities at an unspecified, or generic,'' US reactor site. Cost data for the model came from several sources, including both operating and shutdown nuclear power stations and existing ISFSIs. Duke Power Company has estimated ISFSI costs based on existing spent fuel storage costs at its nuclear power stations. Similarly, nuclear material handling facilities such as the Morris Operation, the West Valley Demonstration Project, and the retired Humbolt Bay nuclear power station have compiled spent fuel storage cost data based on years of operating experience. Consideration was given to the following factors that would cause operating costs to vary among pools: (1) The number of spent fuel pools at a given reactor site; (2) the number of operating and shutdown reactors onsite; (3) geographic location; and (4) pool storage capacity. 10 ref., 6 figs., 7 tabs.

The basic concept and the applicability of the Energy Amplifier (EA) have been exhaustively described elsewhere (Refs. [1] to [4]). The EA is essentially a source of high quality heat, produced by the nuclear cascades induced by a high intensity proton beam inside an appropriate ³beam dump² arrangement. A fraction of such ³heat² has to be transformed into electricity to run the accelerator, the rest being available for a number of different industrial applications, and in particular commercial electricity production. In this paper the economic aspects are further explored and we attempt a first order estimate of the cost of such an energy source, comparing it critically with more conventional sources. In this task we have been greatly helped by a number of people2) who have specific competence in the industrial aspects of the application. We conclude that in agreement to our previous estimates, the practical cost of high quality heat is about US /GJ, namely and times lower than the one of Coal and Natural...

Department of Defense sponsored software which works together with the Automated CostEstimating Integrated Tools ( ACEIT ) suite. Depending on the software...basis used by the estimator, either the Microsoft 30 Excel add-on will be used or the ACEIT based. Crystal Ball shown in Figure 10, uses a...20 Hu and Smith, Proceedings of the 2004 Crystal Ball User Conference COMPARING CRYSTAL BALL ® WITH ACEIT . 21 Smart, “The Portfolio Effect

Deteriorated indoor climate is commonly related to increases in sick building syndrome symptoms, respiratory illnesses, sick leave, reduced comfort and losses in productivity. The cost of deteriorated indoor climate for the society is high. Some calculations show that the cost is higher than the heating energy costs of the same buildings. Also building-level calculations have shown that many measures taken to improve indoor air quality and climate are cost-effective when the potential monetary savings resulting from an improved indoor climate are included as benefits gained. As an initial step towards systemizing these building level calculations we have developed a conceptual model to estimate the cost-effectiveness of various measures. The model shows the links between the improvements in the indoor environment and the following potential financial benefits: reduced medical care cost, reduced sick leave, better performance of work, lower turn over of employees, and lower cost of building maintenance due to fewer complaints about indoor air quality and climate. The pathways to these potential benefits from changes in building technology and practices go via several human responses to the indoor environment such as infectious diseases, allergies and asthma, sick building syndrome symptoms, perceived air quality, and thermal environment. The model also includes the annual cost of investments, operation costs, and cost savings of improved indoor climate. The conceptual model illustrates how various factors are linked to each other. SBS symptoms are probably the most commonly assessed health responses in IEQ studies and have been linked to several characteristics of buildings and IEQ. While the available evidence indicates that SBS symptoms can affect these outcomes and suspects that such a linkage exists, at present we can not quantify the relationships sufficiently for cost-benefit modeling. New research and analyses of existing data to quantify the financial

The results of a study to evaluate the potential life-cycle costs and cost savings that could be realized by applying the Digital Avionics Information System (DAIS) concept to future avionic systems were presented. The tasks evaluated included selection of program elements for costing, selection of DAIS installation potential, definition of a…

Full Text Available Introduction: Feed is a potential and major source for introducing Salmonella into the animal-derived food chain. This is given special attention in the European Union (EU efforts to minimize human food-borne Salmonella infections from animal-derived food. The objective of this study was to estimate the total extra cost for preventing Salmonella contamination of feed above those measures required to produce commercial feed according to EU regulation (EC No 183/2005. The study was carried out in Sweden, a country where Salmonella infections in food-producing animals from feed have largely been eliminated. Methods: On the initiative and leadership of the competent authority, the different steps of feed production associated with control of Salmonella contamination were identified. Representatives for the major feed producers operating in the Swedish market then independently estimated the annual mean costs during the years 2009 and 2010. The feed producers had no known incentives to underestimate the costs. Results and discussion: The total cost for achieving a Salmonella-safe compound feed, when such a control is established, was estimated at 1.8–2.3 € per tonne of feed. Of that cost, 25% relates to the prevention of Salmonella contaminated high-risk vegetable feed materials (mainly soybean meal and rapeseed meal from entering feed mills, and 75% for measures within the feed mills. Based on the feed formulations applied, those costs in relation to the farmers’ 2012 price for compound feed were almost equal for broilers and dairy cows (0.7%. Due to less use of protein concentrate to fatten pigs, the costs were lower (0.6%. These limited costs suggest that previous recommendations to enforce a Salmonella-negative policy for animal feed are realistic and economically feasible to prevent a dissemination of the pathogen to animal herds, their environment, and potentially to human food products.

As part of Task 2, Gas Cleanup and CostEstimates, Nexant investigated the appropriate process scheme for treatment of wood-derived syngas for use in the synthesis of liquid fuels. Two different 2,000 metric tonne per day gasification schemes, a low-pressure, indirect system using the gasifier, and a high-pressure, direct system using gasification technology were evaluated. Initial syngas conditions from each of the gasifiers was provided to the team by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. Nexant was the prime contractor and principal investigator during this task; technical assistance was provided by both GTI and Emery Energy.

For decades researchers have claimedthat particularly demand forecasts and construction costestimations are assigned with/affected by a large degree of uncertainty. Massively, articles,research documents and reports agree that there exists a tendencytowards underestimating the costs and overesti......For decades researchers have claimedthat particularly demand forecasts and construction costestimations are assigned with/affected by a large degree of uncertainty. Massively, articles,research documents and reports agree that there exists a tendencytowards underestimating the costs...... and overestimating the demand for transport infrastructure projects. It is therefore claimed that ex-anteevaluations of trans- port-related projects are often based on inaccurate material, which ultimately can lead to severe socio- economic misperformance. This paper seeks to bridge the gap between the inaccuracies...... in demand and costestimations and hence the evaluation of transport infrastructure projects. Currently, research within this area is scarce and scattered with no commonagreement on how to embed and operationalise the huge amount of empiricaldata that exist within the frame of Optimism Bias. Therefore...

Greywater reuse inside buildings is a possible way to preserve water resources and face up to water scarcity. This study is focused on a technical-economic analysis of greywater treatment by a direct nanofiltration (NF) process or by a submerged membrane bioreactor (SMBR) for on-site recycling. The aim of this paper is to analyse the cost of recycled water for two different configurations (50 and 500 inhabitants) in order to demonstrate the relevance of the implementation of membrane processes for greywater recycling, depending on the production capacity of the equipment and the price of drinking water. The first step was to define a method to access the description of the cost of producing recycled water. The direct costs were defined as a sum of fixed costs due to equipment, maintenance and depreciation, and variable costs generated by chemical products and electricity consumptions. They were estimated from an experimental approach and from data found in literature, enabling operating conditions for greywater recycling to be determined. The cost of treated water by a SMBR unit with a processing capacity of 500 persons is close to 4.40 euros m(-3), while the cost is 4.81 euros m(-3) with a NF process running in the same conditions. These costs are similar to the price of drinking water in some European countries.

This paper presents a method for measuring pressure changes in deep-tissue vessels using vector velocity ultrasound data. The large penetration depth is ensured by acquiring data using a low frequency phased array transducer. Vascular pressure changes are then calculated from 2-D angle-independent vector velocity fields using a model based on the Navier-Stokes equations. Experimental scans are performed on a fabricated flow phantom having a constriction of 36% at a depth of 100 mm. Scans are carried out using a phased array transducer connected to the experimental scanner, SARUS. 2-D fields of angle-independent vector velocities are acquired using directional synthetic aperture vector flow imaging. The obtained results are evaluated by comparison to a 3-D numerical simulation model with equivalent geometry as the designed phantom. The study showed pressure drops across the constricted phantom varying from -40 Pa to 15 Pa with a standard deviation of 32%, and a bias of 25% found relative to the peak simulated pressure drop. This preliminary study shows that pressure can be estimated non-invasively to a depth that enables cardiac scans, and thereby, the possibility of detecting the pressure drops across the mitral valve.

What is the real price to pay for not investing in occupational safety and health? Many studies have previously tackled this question by evaluating the costs of poor or non-existent safety and health at work. This report reviews a selection of these studies and analyses the estimating methods used b

To estimate the cost-effectiveness of a systematic one-off Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) screening program including partner treatment for Dutch young adults. Data on infection prevalence, participation rates, and sexual behavior were obtained from a large pilot study conducted in The Netherlands. Oppo

action’. to improve the software cost Sestimating proces., While thin research was limited to the M.nD onvironment, the same types of problema may exist...Methods in Social Science. Now York: Random House, 1969. 57. Smith, Ronald L. Structured Programming Series (Vol. XI) - Estimating Software Project

This paper reports on the design of a novel two-stage mechanism, based on strictly proper scoring rules, that allows a centre to acquire a costly forecast of a future event (such as a meteorological phenomenon) or a probabilistic estimate of a specific parameter (such as the quality of an expecte...

... for architect-engineer work. 736.605 Section 736.605 Federal Acquisition Regulations System AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT SPECIAL CATEGORIES OF CONTRACTING CONSTRUCTION AND ARCHITECT-ENGINEER CONTRACTS Architect-Engineer Services 736.605 Government costestimate for architect-engineer work. See 736.602-3(c)(5)....

Full Text Available evaluation of project proposals and it is essential that up-to-date information be available. The last South African study undertaken to estimate these costs was in 1992 using 1991 data. The occurrence of structural economic changes since that time have...

Navigation employing low cost MicroElectroMechanical Systems (MEMS) sensors in Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) is an uprising challenge. One important part of this navigation is the right estimation of the attitude angles. Most of the existent algorithms handle the sensor readings in a fixed way, le

What is the real price to pay for not investing in occupational safety and health? Many studies have previously tackled this question by evaluating the costs of poor or non-existent safety and health at work. This report reviews a selection of these studies and analyses the estimating methods used b

Navigation employing low cost MicroElectroMechanical Systems (MEMS) sensors in Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) is an uprising challenge. One important part of this navigation is the right estimation of the attitude angles. Most of the existent algorithms handle the sensor readings in a fixed way, le

"Building information technology" and "costestimating" are two core skills of construction education. However, in traditional education, students learn these two important subjects in separate courses. This study proposes a blended learning environment which can provide students with support for their face-to-face learning…

This report demonstrates how existing national data can be used to first calculate upper limits on the average cost per participant and per outcome per state/territory for the Expanded Food and Nutrition Education Program (EFNEP). These upper limits can then be used by state EFNEP administrators to obtain more precise estimates for their states,…

This article gives an assessment of the relative strengths and weaknesses of a variety of economic modelling approaches commonly used for costestimates for limiting carbon emissions, including the ad hoc approach, dynamic optimization approach, input-output approach, macroeconomic approach, computa

The need for higher bandwidth by customers urges the network providers to upgrade their networks. Fibre to the home or Fibre to the curb are two of the scenarios that are considered. To make a proper assessment on the economic viability, a good estimation of the roll-out costs of the networks are im

The viability of national REDD + programs will depend in part on whether funds generated from sales of carbon credits are sufficient to cover the opportunity costs (OC) of forgone uses of the forest. We present the results of a study in which OC were estimated in dry tropical forest, in western Mexi

This deliverable is for Task 9, Mixed Alcohols from Syngas: State of Technology, as part of National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) Award ACO-5-44027, ''Equipment Design and CostEstimation for Small Modular Biomass Systems, Synthesis Gas Cleanup and Oxygen Separation Equipment''. Task 9 supplements the work previously done by NREL in the mixed alcohols section of the 2003 technical report Preliminary Screening--Technical and Economic Assessment of Synthesis Gas to Fuels and Chemicals with Emphasis on the Potential for Biomass-Derived Syngas.

Carbon capture from stationary sources and geologic storage of carbon dioxide (CO2) is an important option to include in strategies to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. However, the potential costs of commercial-scale CO2 storage are not well constrained, stemming from the inherent uncertainty in storage resource estimates coupled with a lack of detailed estimates of the infrastructure needed to access those resources. Storage resource estimates are highly dependent on storage efficiency values or storage coefficients, which are calculated based on ranges of uncertain geological and physical reservoir parameters. If dynamic factors (such as variability in storage efficiencies, pressure interference, and acceptable injection rates over time), reservoir pressure limitations, boundaries on migration of CO2, consideration of closed or semi-closed saline reservoir systems, and other possible constraints on the technically accessible CO2 storage resource (TASR) are accounted for, it is likely that only a fraction of the TASR could be available without incurring significant additional costs. Although storage resource estimates typically assume that any issues with pressure buildup due to CO2 injection will be mitigated by reservoir pressure management, estimates of the costs of CO2 storage generally do not include the costs of active pressure management. Production of saline waters (brines) could be essential to increasing the dynamic storage capacity of most reservoirs, but including the costs of this critical method of reservoir pressure management could increase current estimates of the costs of CO2 storage by two times, or more. Even without considering the implications for reservoir pressure management, geologic uncertainty can significantly impact CO2 storage capacities and costs, and contribute to uncertainty in carbon capture and storage (CCS) systems. Given the current state of available information and the scarcity of (data from) long-term commercial-scale CO2

Carbon capture from stationary sources and geologic storage of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) is an important option to include in strategies to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. However, the potential costs of commercial-scale CO{sub 2} storage are not well constrained, stemming from the inherent uncertainty in storage resource estimates coupled with a lack of detailed estimates of the infrastructure needed to access those resources. Storage resource estimates are highly dependent on storage efficiency values or storage coefficients, which are calculated based on ranges of uncertain geological and physical reservoir parameters. If dynamic factors (such as variability in storage efficiencies, pressure interference, and acceptable injection rates over time), reservoir pressure limitations, boundaries on migration of CO{sub 2}, consideration of closed or semi-closed saline reservoir systems, and other possible constraints on the technically accessible CO{sub 2} storage resource (TASR) are accounted for, it is likely that only a fraction of the TASR could be available without incurring significant additional costs. Although storage resource estimates typically assume that any issues with pressure buildup due to CO{sub 2} injection will be mitigated by reservoir pressure management, estimates of the costs of CO{sub 2} storage generally do not include the costs of active pressure management. Production of saline waters (brines) could be essential to increasing the dynamic storage capacity of most reservoirs, but including the costs of this critical method of reservoir pressure management could increase current estimates of the costs of CO{sub 2} storage by two times, or more. Even without considering the implications for reservoir pressure management, geologic uncertainty can significantly impact CO{sub 2} storage capacities and costs, and contribute to uncertainty in carbon capture and storage (CCS) systems. Given the current state of available information and the

Because of concerns about the Department of Education's reliance on estimates to project costs of the William D. Ford Federal Direct Loan Program (FDLP) and a lack of historical information on which to base those estimates, Congress asked the General Accounting Office (GAO) to review how the department develops its costestimates for the program,…

In this article, we investigated the estimatedcost to the Medicare program for covering psychotherapy services provided by marriage and family therapists (MFTs). Historical trends were identified by using psychotherapy cost and utilization data for the years 1999-2001. Using these trends, projections for the years 2002-2006 were made with MFTs included as providers. Employing this methodology, the 5-year estimated net increase and gross increase in cost due to the provision of psychotherapy services by MFTs was found to be approximately dollar 10.5 million (or dollar 2.1 million per year) and dollar 13.9 million (or dollar 2.8 million per year), respectively. This represents an increase of less than 1/2 of 1% of the Medicare mental health budget, and less than .0015% of Medicare expenditures overall.

Total life-cycle costs were estimated in support of the New York LLRW Siting Commission`s project to select a disposal method from four near-surface LLRW disposal methods (namely, uncovered above-grade vaults, covered above-grade vaults, below-grade vaults, and augered holes) and two mined methods (namely, vertical shaft mines and drift mines). Conceptual designs for the disposal methods were prepared and used as the basis for the costestimates. Typical economic performance of each disposal method was assessed. Life-cycle costs expressed in 1994 dollars ranged from $ 1,100 million (for below-grade vaults and both mined disposal methods) to $2,000 million (for augered holes). Present values ranged from $620 million (for below-grade vaults) to $ 1,100 million (for augered holes).

Full Text Available CONTEXT AND OBJECTIVES: Adverse drug reactions (ADRs may cause prolonged hospital admissions with high treatment costs. The burden of ADRs in children has never been evaluated in Nigeria. The incidence of pediatric ADRs and the estimatedcost of treatment over an 18-month period were determined in this study. DESIGN AND SETTING: Prospective observational study on children admitted to the pediatric wards of the Lagos State University Teaching Hospital (LASUTH in Nigeria, between July 2006 and December 2007. METHODS: Each patient was assessed for ADRs throughout admission. Medical and non-medical costs to the hospital and patient were estimated for each ADR by reviewing the medical and pharmacy bills, medical charts and diagnostic request forms and by interviewing the parents. Costestimates were performed in 2007 naira (Nigeria currency from the perspectives of the hospital (government, service users (patients and society (bearers of the total costs attributable to treating ADRs. The total estimatedcost was expressed in 2007 United States dollars (USD. RESULTS: Two thousand and four children were admitted during the study; 12 (0.6% were admitted because of ADRs and 23 (1.2% developed ADR(s during admission. Forty ADRs were suspected in these 35 patients and involved 53 medicines. Antibiotics (50% were the most suspected medicines. Approximately 1.83 million naira (USD 15,466.60 was expended to manage all the patients admitted due to ADRs. CONCLUSIONS: Treating pediatric ADRs was very expensive. Pediatric drug use policies in Nigeria need to be reviewed so as to discourage self-medication, polypharmacy prescription and sales of prescription medicines without prescription.

The KAERI (Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute) has developed the DECOMMIS (Decommissioning Information Management System) and have been applied for the decommissioning project of the KRR (Korea Research Reactor)-1 and 2 and UCP (Uranium Conversion Plant), as the meaning of the first decommissioning project in Korea. All information and data which are from the decommissioning activities are input, saved, output and managed in the DECOMMIS. This system was consists of the web server and the database server. The users could be access through a web page, depending on the input, processing and output, and be modified the permissions to do such activities can after the decommissioning activities have created the initial system-wide data is stored. When it could be used the experienced data from DECOMMIS, the costestimation on the new facilities for the decommissioning planning will be established with the basic frame of the WBS structures and its codes. In this paper, the prediction on the costestimation through using the experienced data which were store in DECOMMIS was studied. For the new decommissioning project on the nuclear facilities in the future, through this paper, the costestimation for the decommissioning using the experienced data which were WBS codes, unit-work productivity factors and annual governmental unit labor cost is proposed. These data were from the KRR and UCP decommissioning project. The differences on the WBS code sectors and facility characterization between new objected components and experienced dismantled components was reduces as scaling factors. The study on the establishment the scaling factors and cost prediction for the costestimation is developing with the algorithms from the productivity data, now.

Full Text Available Abstract Background Costestimation is a central feature of health economic analyses. The aim of this study was to use a micro-costing approach and a societal perspective to estimate aggregated costs associated with cervical cancer screening, diagnosis and treatment in rural China. Methods We assumed that future screening programs will be organized at a county level (population ~250,000, and related treatments will be performed at county or prefecture hospitals; therefore, this study was conducted in a county and a prefecture hospital in Shanxi during 2008–9. Direct medical costs were estimated by gathering information on quantities and prices of drugs, supplies, equipment and labour. Direct non-medical costs were estimated via structured patient interviews and expert opinion. Results Under the base case assumption of a high-volume screening initiative (11,475 women screened annually per county, the aggregated direct medical costs of visual inspection, self-sampled careHPV (Qiagen USA screening, clinician-sampled careHPV, colposcopy and biopsy were estimated as US$2.64,$7.49,$7.95,$3.90 and $5.76, respectively. Screening costs were robust to screening volume ( Conclusions Diagnostic costs were comparable to screening costs for high-volume screening but were greatly increased in lower-volume situations, which is a key consideration for the scale-up phase of new programs. The study’s findings will facilitate cost-effectiveness evaluation and budget planning for cervical cancer prevention initiatives in China.

This report summarizes the bottoms-up costestimates for fabrication of high-level radioactive waste disposal containers based on the Site Characterization Plan Conceptual Design (SCP-CD). These estimates were acquired by Babcock and Wilcox (B&S) under sub-contract to Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) for the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project (YMP). The estimates were obtained for two leading container candidate materials (Alloy 825 and CDA 715), and from other three vendors who were selected from a list of twenty solicited. Three types of container designs were analyzed that represent containers for spent fuel, and for vitrified high-level waste (HLW). The container internal structures were assumed to be AISI-304 stainless steel in all cases, with an annual production rate of 750 containers. Subjective techniques were used for estimating QA/QC costs based on vendor experience and the specifications derived for the LLNL-YMP Quality Assurance program. In addition, an independent QA/QC analysis is reported which was prepared by Kasier Engineering. Based on the costestimates developed, LLNL recommends that values of $825K and $62K be used for the 1991 TSLCC for the spent fuel and HLW containers, respectively. These numbers represent the most conservative among the three vendors, and are for the high-nickel anstenitic steel (Alloy 825). 6 refs., 7 figs.

PURPOSE: To investigate differences in cost of endovenous laser therapy (EVLT) using a top-down approach derived from the Annual Report versus a clinically orientated, bottom-up approach at a single hospital. METHODS: Information was obtained from: the day-case activity Service Line Report (SLR) income statement for general surgery, comparative data from the National Audit Commission, reference costs from the hospital finance department on 69 patients and calculations on individual treatment times and session slots (2 EVLT's per 3.5 hr session) on 37 consecutive patients. Duration of treatment, consumables (over £3) and staff pay were also recorded. Overheads were estimated at 15% and adjustments were made based on location and length of stay. RESULTS: Using a top-down approach with SLR data the total cost of EVLT was estimated at £963.78 per treatment after adjustments for services and consumables. This compares with £1,073.34 using national data. The hospital reference costs per treatment ranged from £767.56 overall by local procedure code (HRG-QZ10B) to £2,353.79 with individual samples. In the bottom-up approach median duration of EVLT was 86 mins (95% CI: 82-95, IQR: 26). With timed treatments median cost per individual treatment was £597.68 (95% CI: 587.65-621.25, IQR: 67.87) compared to £647.28 per session slot. CONCLUSION: Costestimations of EVLT demonstrate an up to 4-fold difference. Lack of clinical engagement in the top-down approach leads to overestimations. Overheads are underestimated with a bottom-up approach. This variability should be accounted when comparing treatments or interpreting cost-effectiveness analyses.

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Onchocerciasis causes a considerable disease burden in Africa, mainly through skin and eye disease. Since 1995, the African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC has coordinated annual mass treatment with ivermectin in 16 countries. In this study, we estimate the health impact of APOC and the associated costs from a program perspective up to 2010 and provide expected trends up to 2015. METHODS AND FINDINGS: With data on pre-control prevalence of infection and population coverage of mass treatment, we simulated trends in infection, blindness, visual impairment, and severe itch using the micro-simulation model ONCHOSIM, and estimated disability-adjusted life years (DALYs lost due to onchocerciasis. We assessed financial costs for APOC, beneficiary governments, and non-governmental development organizations, excluding cost of donated drugs. We estimated that between 1995 and 2010, mass treatment with ivermectin averted 8.2 million DALYs due to onchocerciasis in APOC areas, at a nominal cost of about US$257 million. We expect that APOC will avert another 9.2 million DALYs between 2011 and 2015, at a nominal cost of US$221 million. CONCLUSIONS: Our simulations suggest that APOC has had a remarkable impact on population health in Africa between 1995 and 2010. This health impact is predicted to double during the subsequent five years of the program, through to 2015. APOC is a highly cost-effective public health program. Given the anticipated elimination of onchocerciasis from some APOC areas, we expect even more health gains and a more favorable cost-effectiveness of mass treatment with ivermectin in the near future.

The lack of defensible methods for quantifying costestimate uncertainty over the whole product life cycle of aerospace innovations such as propulsion systems or airframes poses a significant challenge to the creation of accurate and defensible costestimates. Based on the axiomatic definition of uncertainty as the actual prediction error of the costestimate, this paper provides a comprehensive overview of metrics used for the uncertainty quantification of costestimates based on a literature review, an evaluation of publicly funded projects such as part of the CORDIS or Horizon 2020 programs, and an analysis of established approaches used by organizations such NASA, the U.S. Department of Defence, the ESA, and various commercial companies. The metrics are categorized based on their foundational character (foundations), their use in practice (state-of-practice), their availability for practice (state-of-art) and those suggested for future exploration (state-of-future). Insights gained were that a variety of uncertainty quantification metrics exist whose suitability depends on the volatility of available relevant information, as defined by technical and cost readiness level, and the number of whole product life cycle phases the estimate is intended to be valid for. Information volatility and number of whole product life cycle phases can hereby be considered as defining multi-dimensional probability fields admitting various uncertainty quantification metric families with identifiable thresholds for transitioning between them. The key research gaps identified were the lacking guidance grounded in theory for the selection of uncertainty quantification metrics and lacking practical alternatives to metrics based on the Central Limit Theorem. An innovative uncertainty quantification framework consisting of; a set-theory based typology, a data library, a classification system, and a corresponding input-output model are put forward to address this research gap as the basis

Full Text Available The Authors have proposed a model that first captures the fundamentals of software metrics in the phase 1 consisting of three primitive primary software engineering metrics; they are person-months (PM, function-points (FP, and lines of code (LOC. The phase 2 consists of the proposed function point which is obtained by grouping the adjustment factors to simplify the process of adjustment and to ensure more consistency in the adjustments. In the proposed method fuzzy logic is used for quantifying the quality of requirements and is added as one of the adjustment factor, thus a fuzzy based approach for the Enhanced General System Characteristics to Estimate Effort of the Software Projects using productivity has been obtained. The phase 3 takes the calculated function point from our work and is given as input to the static single variable model (i.e. to the Intermediate COCOMO and COCOMO II for costestimation. The Authors have tailored the cost factors in intermediate COCOMO and both; cost and scale factors are tailored in COCOMO II to suite to the individual development environment, which is very important for the accuracy of the costestimates. The software performance indicators are project duration, schedule predictability, requirements completion ratio and post-release defect density, are also measured for the software projects in my work. A comparative study for effort, performance measurement and costestimation of the software project is done between the existing model and the authors proposed work. Thus our work analyzes the interaction¬al process through which the estimation tasks were collectively accomplished.

Changes in Brazilian energy scenario through last years such as increase of demand and search for clean and economically feasible renewable energy sources, has stimulated investors to small hydro power plants (SHP) sector. Such characteristics together with several economic incentives, legal and regulatory mechanisms also, have helped and stimulated building of new plants of this kind and have attracted a great number of investors to this sector. Study of costs analysis and feasibility of investments is a study which has been used since long time in SHP business market as several preliminary studies previous to civil project have significant costs which lead us to count with a feasibility analysis from the very beginning of studies, exactly what is suggested in the present methodology. Such feasibility analysis, in the common patterns where basic unit costs of each input remain outstanding, would be very complex due to great difficulty in obtaining information at initial phase of project. In this direction this study brings a contribution for investors as well as for designers of small hydro power plants since it outlines a link between physical and energetic characteristics of small hydro power plant in its total cost. Such link is based in available physical characteristics in initial phase of the project, making possible a previous comparison between arrangements of a central or even the comparison of return of investment between different plants. The resulting benefit being the possibility of choosing centrals with greater economic feasibility disregarding bad undertakings or arrangements with more expressive cost. Final result gives a better delay in return of investment, helps in power, arrangements more optimized and in saving time as well, reducing costs of undertakings. Due to large number of SHP arrangements, we chose for this study the most common in Brazil, plant of medium and large fall, shunting line balance chimney and low pressure conduit. (author)

Health summary measures are commonly used by policy makers to help make decisions on the allocation of societal resources for competing medical treatments. The net monetary benefit is a health summary measure that overcomes the statistical limitations of a popular measure namely, the cost-effectiveness ratio. We introduce a linear model framework to estimate propensity score adjusted net monetary benefit. This method provides less biased estimates in the presence of significant differences in baseline measures and demographic characteristics between treatment groups in quasi-randomized or observational studies. Simulation studies were conducted to better understand the utility of propensity score adjusted estimates of net monetary benefits when important covariates are unobserved. The results indicated that the propensity score adjusted net monetary benefit provides a robust measure of cost-effectiveness in the presence of hidden bias. The methods are illustrated using data from SEER-Medicare for the treatment of bladder cancer.

According to the Act on the Financing of Future Expenses for Spent Nuclear Fuel etc. (Financing Act), the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co. (SKB) must submit, every year, to the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate (SKI), a costestimate for the management of spent nuclear fuel and for the decommissioning and dismantling of the nuclear power plants. After SKI has examined and evaluated the costestimates, SKI must submit a proposal to the Government concerning the fee which should be paid by the nuclear power companies per kWh of generated electricity. According to the Financing Act, the reactor owners must pledge collateral in the event that the accumulated fees should be found to be insufficient as a result of early closure of reactors or as a result of underestimating the future expenses of managing the spent nuclear fuel and of decommissioning and dismantling the reactors. The future total expenses resulting from the Financing Act are estimated at about SEK 48 billion at the January 1998 price level. Of this amount, the cost of the final disposal of spent nuclear fuel in SKB's programme is expected to amount to about SEK 12 billion. SKB's estimate comprises the cost of siting, construction and operation of a deep repository for spent nuclear fuel, based on the KBS-3 concept, and a rock cavern for other long-lived waste which SKB plans to locate next to the spent fuel repository. The costestimate also includes the dismantling and closure of the facility once all of the fuel and the long-lived waste are deposited. The calculations are based on all of the fuel, which will be generated through the operation of the 12 Swedish reactors during a period of 25 years and for every additional year of operation. At the beginning of 1998, SKI commissioned BERGAB to evaluate the costestimate for the deep disposal of the spent nuclear fuel. The task was divided into two stages, namely a study which was submitted in June 1998 concerning the technical

NREL has developed a methodology to prioritize which data center cooling systems could be upgraded for better efficiency based on estimatedcost savings and economics. The best efficiency results are in cool or dry climates where 'free' economizer or evaporative cooling can provide most of the data center cooling. Locations with a high cost of energy and facilities with high power usage effectiveness (PUE) are also good candidates for data center cooling system upgrades. In one case study of a major cable provider's data centers, most of the sites studied had opportunities for cost-effective cooling system upgrades with payback period of 5 years or less. If the cable provider invested in all opportunities for upgrades with payback periods of less than 15 years, it could save 27% on annual energy costs.

The cost-effectiveness ratio (CER) is a measure of the monetary value of resources expended to obtain reductions in emissions of air pollutants. The CER can lead to selection of the most effective sequence of pollution reduction options. Derived with different methodologies and technical assumptions, CER estimates for alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) have varied widely among pervious studies. In one of several explanations of LCER differences, this report uses a consistent basis for fuel price to re-estimate CERs for AFVs in reduction of emissions of criteria pollutants, toxics, and greenhouse gases. The re-estimated CERs for a given fuel type have considerable differences due to non-fuel costs and emissions reductions, but the CERs do provide an ordinal sense of cost-effectiveness. The category with CER less than $5,000 per ton includes compressed natural gas and ed Petroleum gas vehicles; and E85 flexible-fueled vehicles (with fuel mixture of 85 percent cellulose-derived ethanol in gasoline). The E85 system would be much less attractive if corn-derived ethanol were used. The CER for E85 (corn-derived) is higher with higher values placed on the reduction of gas emissions. CER estimates are relative to conventional vehicles fueled with Phase 1 California reformulated gasoline (RFG). The California Phase 2 RFG program will be implemented before significant market penetration by AFVs. CERs could be substantially greater if they are calculated incremental to the Phase 2 RFG program. Regression analysis suggests that different assumptions across studies can sometimes have predictable effects on the CER estimate of a particular AFV type. The relative differences in cost and emissions reduction assumptions can be large, and the effect of these differences on the CER estimate is often not predictable. Decomposition of CERs suggests that methodological differences can make large contributions to CER differences among studies.

Three designs of a guyed cylindrical tower and its foundation for an intermediate size horizontal axis wind turbine generator are discussed. The primary difference in the three designs is the configuration of the rotor. Two configurations are two-blade rotors with teetering hubs - one with full span pitchable blades, the other with fixed pitch blades. The third configuration is a three-bladed rotor with a rigid hub and fixed pitch blades. In all configurations the diameter of the rotor is 38 meters and the axis of rotation is 30.4 meters above grade, and the power output is 200 kW and 400 kW. For each configuration the design is based upon for the most severe loading condition either operating wind or hurricane conditions. The diameter of the tower is selected to be 1.5 meters (since it was determined that this would provide sufficient space for access ladders within the tower) with guy rods attached at 10.7 meters above grade. Completing a design requires selecting the required thicknesses of the various cylindrical segments, the number and diameter of the guy rods, the number and size of soil anchors, and the size of the central foundation. The lower natural frequencies of vibration are determined for each design to ensure that operation near resonance does not occur. Finally, a costestimate is prepared for each design. A preliminary design and costestimate of a cantilever tower (cylindrical and not guyed) and its foundation is also presented for each of the three configurations.

The Probabilistic Landslide Assessment CostEstimation System (PLACES) presented in this report estimates the number and economic loss (cost) of landslides during a specified future time in individual areas, and then calculates the sum of those estimates. The analytic probabilistic methodology is based upon conditional probability theory and laws of expectation and variance. The probabilistic methodology is expressed in the form of a Microsoft Excel computer spreadsheet program. Using historical records, the PLACES spreadsheet is used to estimate the number of future damaging landslides and total damage, as economic loss, from future landslides caused by rainstorms in 10 counties of the San Francisco Bay region in California. Estimates are made for any future 5-year period of time. The estimated total number of future damaging landslides for the entire 10-county region during any future 5-year period of time is about 330. Santa Cruz County has the highest estimated number of damaging landslides (about 90), whereas Napa, San Francisco, and Solano Counties have the lowest estimated number of damaging landslides (5?6 each). Estimated direct costs from future damaging landslides for the entire 10-county region for any future 5-year period are about US $76 million (year 2000 dollars). San Mateo County has the highest estimatedcosts ($16.62 million), and Solano County has the lowest estimatedcosts (about $0.90 million). Estimated direct costs are also subdivided into public and private costs.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the annual direct and indirect costs of the prevention and treatment of cervical cancer in Brazil. METHODS: This cost description study used a "gross-costing" methodology and adopted the health system and societal perspectives. The estimates were grouped into sets of procedures performed in phases of cervical cancer care: the screening, diagnosis and treatment of precancerous lesions and the treatment of cervical cancer. The costs were estimated for the public and private health systems, using data from national health information systems, population surveys, and literature reviews. The costestimates are presented in 2006 USD. RESULTS: From the societal perspective, the estimated total costs of the prevention and treatment of cervical cancer amounted to USD $1,321,683,034, which was categorized as follows: procedures (USD $213,199,490), visits (USD $325,509,842), transportation (USD $106,521,537) and productivity losses (USD $676,452,166). Indirect costs represented 51% of the total costs, followed by direct medical costs (visits and procedures) at 41% and direct non-medical costs (transportation) at 8%. The public system represented 46% of the total costs, and the private system represented 54%. CONCLUSION: Our national costestimates of cervical cancer prevention and treatment, indicating the economic importance of cervical cancer screening and care, will be useful in monitoring the effect of the HPV vaccine introduction and are of interest in research and health care management. PMID:26017797

This article provides an account of a small-scale pilot study of the cost and perceived benefits of the educational psychology services in two comparably small local authorities in England. This study is preparatory to a more detailed examination of the costs and likely benefits of state provision of educational psychology services in England. The…

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) are playing an increasing role in aviation. Various methods exist for the computation of UAV attitude based on low cost microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) and Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers. There has been a recent increase in UAV autonomy as sensors are becoming more compact and onboard processing power has increased significantly. Correct UAV attitude estimation will play a critical role in navigation and separation assurance as UAVs share airspace with civil air traffic. This paper describes attitude estimation derived by post-processing data from a small low cost Inertial Navigation System (INS) recorded during the flight of a subscale commercial off the shelf (COTS) UAV. Two discrete time attitude estimation schemes are presented here in detail. The first is an adaptation of the Kalman Filter to accommodate nonlinear systems, the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF). The EKF returns quaternion estimates of the UAV attitude based on MEMS gyro, magnetometer, accelerometer, and pitot tube inputs. The second scheme is the complementary filter which is a simpler algorithm that splits the sensor frequency spectrum based on noise characteristics. The necessity to correct both filters for gravity measurement errors during turning maneuvers is demonstrated. It is shown that the proposed algorithms may be used to estimate UAV attitude. The effects of vibration on sensor measurements are discussed. Heuristic tuning comments pertaining to sensor filtering and gain selection to achieve acceptable performance during flight are given. Comparisons of attitude estimation performance are made between the EKF and the complementary filter.

Valuation of health effects of air pollution is becoming a critical component of the performance of cost-benefit analysis of pollution control measures, which provides a basis for setting priorities for action. Beijing has focused on control of transport emission as vehicular emissions have recently become an important source of air pollution, particularly during Olympic games and Post-games. In this paper, we conducted an estimation of health effects and economic cost caused by road transport-related air pollution using an integrated assessment approach which utilizes air quality model, engineering, epidemiology, and economics. The results show that the total economic cost of health impacts due to air pollution contributed from transport in Beijing during 2004-2008 was 272, 297, 310, 323, 298 million US (mean value), respectively. The economic costs of road transport accounted for 0.52, 0.57, 0.60, 0.62, and 0.58% of annual Beijing GDP from 2004 to 2008. Average cost per vehicle and per ton of PM 10 emission from road transport can also be estimated as 106 US /number and 3584 US $ t -1, respectively. These findings illustrate that the impact of road transport contributed particulate air pollution on human health could be substantial in Beijing, whether in physical and economic terms. Therefore, some control measures to reduce transport emissions could lead to considerable economic benefit.

Full Text Available The objective of this study is to develop early costestimating models for road construction projects using multiple regression techniques, based on 131 sets of data collected in the West Bank in Palestine. As the costestimates are required at early stages of a project, considerations were given to the fact that the input data for the required regression model could be easily extracted from sketches or scope definition of the project. 11 regression models are developed to estimate the total cost of road construction project in US dollar; 5 of them include bid quantities as input variables and 6 include road length and road width. The coefficient of determination r2 for the developed models is ranging from 0.92 to 0.98 which indicate that the predicted values from a forecast models fit with the real-life data. The values of the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE of the developed regression models are ranging from 13% to 31%, the results compare favorably with past researches which have shown that the estimate accuracy in the early stages of a project is between ±25% and ±50%.

Full Text Available An attitude estimation algorithm is developed using an adaptive extended Kalman filter for low-cost microelectromechanical-system (MEMS triaxial accelerometers and gyroscopes, that is, inertial measurement units (IMUs. Although these MEMS sensors are relatively cheap, they give more inaccurate measurements than conventional high-quality gyroscopes and accelerometers. To be able to use these low-cost MEMS sensors with precision in all situations, a novel attitude estimation algorithm is proposed for fusing triaxial gyroscope and accelerometer measurements. An extended Kalman filter is implemented to estimate attitude in direction cosine matrix (DCM formation and to calibrate gyroscope biases online. We use a variable measurement covariance for acceleration measurements to ensure robustness against temporary nongravitational accelerations, which usually induce errors when estimating attitude with ordinary algorithms. The proposed algorithm enables accurate gyroscope online calibration by using only a triaxial gyroscope and accelerometer. It outperforms comparable state-of-the-art algorithms in those cases when there are either biases in the gyroscope measurements or large temporary nongravitational accelerations present. A low-cost, temperature-based calibration method is also discussed for initially calibrating gyroscope and acceleration sensors. An open source implementation of the algorithm is also available.

by consumables (9%), transport (4%) and capital items (1%) respectively. The highest cost proportion by activity was Treatment costs (74%) followed by administration (19%), school visits (4%) and advocacy (3%) respectively. Conclusions: The praziquantel tablets and personnel contribute the highest costs....... The evidence shows that there is a need for implementation of a schistosomiasis Mass Treatment Campaign (MTC) but information about the cost of such a programme is unknown in South Africa. Materials and Methods: A retrospective, cross sectional descriptive costing study for a schistosomiasis MTC was conducted......, from a provider perspective. Costs were classified by cost inputs and activity. Financial records were reviewed for all 60 randomly selected schools participating in the MTC in Ugu District, KwaZulu-Natal. An Excel database was used for data analysis. Preliminary Findings: Forty five percent (16 239...

Owner resistance to increasing regulation of on-site wastewater treatment systems (OWTS), including obligatory inspections and upgrades, moratoriums and cease-and-desist orders in communities around the U.S. demonstrate the challenges associated with managing risks of inadequate performance of owner-operated wastewater treatment systems. As a result, determining appropriate and enforceable performance measures in an industry with little history of these requirements is challenging. To better support such measures, we develop a statistical method to predict lifetime failure risks, expressed as costs, in order to identify operational factors associated with costly repairs and replacement. A binomial logistic regression is used to fit data from public records of reported OWTS failures, in Boulder County, Colorado, which has 14 300 OWTS to determine the probability that an OWTS will be in a low- or high-risk category for lifetime repair and replacement costs. High-performing or low risk OWTS with repairs and replacements below the threshold of $9000 over a 40-year life are associated with more frequent inspections and upgrades following home additions. OWTS with a high risk of exceeding the repair cost threshold of $18 000 are further analyzed in a variation of extreme value analysis (EVA), Points Over Threshold (POT) where the distribution of risk-cost exceedance values are represented by a generalized Pareto distribution. The resulting threshold cost exceedance estimates for OWTS in the high-risk category over a 40-year expected life ranged from $18 000 to $44 000.

In 1997, the SNFP developed a baseline change request (BCR) and submitted it to DOE-RL for approval. The schedule was formally evaluated to have a 19% probability of success [Williams, 1998]. In December 1997, DOE-RL Manager John Wagoner approved the BCR contingent upon a subsequent independent review of the new baseline. The SNFP took several actions during the first quarter of 1998 to prepare for the independent review. The project developed the Estimating Requirements and Implementation Guide [DESH, 1998] and trained cost account managers (CAMS) and other personnel involved in the estimating process in activity-based cost (ABC) estimating techniques. The SNFP then applied ABC estimating techniques to develop the basis for the December Baseline (DB) and documented that basis in Basis of Estimate (BOE) books. These BOEs were provided to DOE in April 1998. DOE commissioned Professional Analysis, Inc. (PAI) to perform a critical analysis (CA) of the DB. PAI`s review formally began on April 13. PAI performed the CA, provided three sets of findings to the SNFP contractor, and initiated reconciliation meetings. During the course of PAI`s review, DOE directed the SNFP to develop a new baseline with a higher probability of success. The contractor transmitted the new baseline, which is referred to as the High Probability Baseline (HPB), to DOE on April 15, 1998 [Williams, 1998]. The HPB was estimated to approach a 90% confidence level on the start of fuel movement [Williams, 1998]. This high probability resulted in an increased cost and a schedule extension. To implement the new baseline, the contractor initiated 26 BCRs with supporting BOES. PAI`s scope was revised on April 28 to add reviewing the HPB and the associated BCRs and BOES.

As part of Task 2, Gas Cleanup and CostEstimates, Nexant investigated the appropriate process scheme for removal of acid gases from black liquor-derived syngas for use in both power and liquid fuels synthesis. Two 3,200 metric tonne per day gasification schemes, both low-temperature/low-pressure (1100 deg F, 40 psi) and high-temperature/high-pressure (1800 deg F, 500 psi) were used for syngas production. Initial syngas conditions from each of the gasifiers was provided to the team by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and Princeton University. Nexant was the prime contractor and principal investigator during this task; technical assistance was provided by both GTI and Emery Energy.

Many countries have considered or are considering modifying their seasonal influenza immunization policies. Estimating the impact of such changes requires understanding the existing clinical and economic burden of influenza, as well as the potential impact of different vaccination options. Previous studies suggest that vaccinating clinical risk groups, health care workers, children and the elderly may be cost-effective. However, challenges in such estimation include: (1) potential cases are not usually virologically tested; (2) cases have non-specific symptoms and are rarely reported to surveillance systems; (3) endpoints for influenza proxies (such as influenza-like illness) need to be matched to case definitions for treatment costs, (4) disease burden estimates vary from year to year with strain transmissibility, virulence and prior immunity, (5) methods to estimate productivity losses due to influenza vary, (6) vaccine efficacy estimates from trials differ due to variation in subtype prevalence, vaccine match and case ascertainment, and (7) indirect (herd) protection from vaccination depends on setting-specific variables that are difficult to directly measure. Given the importance of knowing the impact of changes to influenza policy, such complexities need careful treatment using tools such as population-based trial designs, meta-analyses, time-series analyses and transmission dynamic models.

Objective: Estimate the cost of dental care generated by the dental decay prevalence in high school students at Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM). Methods: A cross-sectional study was carried out with a population of 78,870 high schoolers (conducted between the years 2003 and 2005). The need for dental caries treatment was determined by the decayed, missing and filled teeth index (DMFT) as it is indicated at the Automated Medical Exam (EMA, acronym in Spanish). The estimation of ...

subject to errors , some authors say that these small errors can result in large estimate errors (15:145). Other authors, however, believe that the...summation will tend to cancel these small errors , if they are random (22:34). All these characteristics make this a good, robust costestimating method...ocontrole? 2.3 Suprimentos recebidos do Parque Custo rn6dio de todo o material que o Parque envia para a Base por ano (ou rn6s, etc.) Inclui todo tipo de

Ekono Energy Ltd. and Soil and Water Ltd. participated in 1993 - 1994 in the SIHTI 2 research programme of the Ministry of Trade and Industry by carrying out the project `Estimation of the extremal cost of energy production in Finland`. The aim of the survey was to assess the external costs of Finnish energy production which are incurred by the environmental impacts of emissions during the life cycles of fossil fuels. To this end, the survey studied the environmental impacts of emissions on a local level (population centres), on a national level (Finland) and on a global level. The main target was to develop a method for calculating the economic value of these impacts. The method was applied to the emissions in 1990. During the survey, the main emphasis was put on developing and applying indirect valuation methods. An indirect method proceeds through dose-response functions. The dose-response function links a certain emission quantity, concentration or deposition to the extent or intensity of the effect. When quantitative data on hazards is available, it is possible to carry out monetary valuation by means of market prices or people`s otherwise expressed willingness to pay (WTP). Monetary valuation includes many uncertainty factors, of which the most significant with regard to this study are the transferability of dose-response functions and willingness-to-pay values from different kinds of conditions, additivity of damage values, uncertainty factors and problems related to discounting

Costestimation is a central feature of health economic analyses. The aim of this study was to use a micro-costing approach and a societal perspective to estimate aggregated costs associated with cervical cancer screening, diagnosis and treatment in rural China. We assumed that future screening programs will be organized at a county level (population ~250,000), and related treatments will be performed at county or prefecture hospitals; therefore, this study was conducted in a county and a prefecture hospital in Shanxi during 2008-9. Direct medical costs were estimated by gathering information on quantities and prices of drugs, supplies, equipment and labour. Direct non-medical costs were estimated via structured patient interviews and expert opinion. Under the base case assumption of a high-volume screening initiative (11,475 women screened annually per county), the aggregated direct medical costs of visual inspection, self-sampled careHPV (Qiagen USA) screening, clinician-sampled careHPV, colposcopy and biopsy were estimated as US$2.64,$7.49,$7.95,$3.90 and $5.76, respectively. Screening costs were robust to screening volume (costs of colposcopy/biopsy tripled at the lower volume. Direct medical costs of Loop Excision, Cold-Knife Conization and Simple and Radical Hysterectomy varied from $61-544, depending on the procedure and whether conducted at county or prefecture level. Direct non-medical expenditure varied from $0.68-$3.09 for screening/diagnosis and $83-$494 for pre-cancer/cancer treatment. Diagnostic costs were comparable to screening costs for high-volume screening but were greatly increased in lower-volume situations, which is a key consideration for the scale-up phase of new programs. The study's findings will facilitate cost-effectiveness evaluation and budget planning for cervical cancer prevention initiatives in China.

Navigation employing low cost MicroElectroMechanical Systems (MEMS) sensors in Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) is an uprising challenge. One important part of this navigation is the right estimation of the attitude angles. Most of the existent algorithms handle the sensor readings in a fixed way, leading to large errors in different mission stages like take-off aerobatic maneuvers. This paper presents an adaptive method to estimate these angles using off-the-shelf components. This paper introduces an Attitude Heading Reference System (AHRS) based on the Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF) using the Fast Optimal Attitude Matrix (FOAM) algorithm as the observation model. The performance of the method is assessed through simulations. Moreover, field experiments are presented using a real fixed-wing UAV. The proposed low cost solution, implemented in a microcontroller, shows a satisfactory real time performance.

A conceptual design and costestimate for a subsonic flight research vehicle designed to support NASA's Environmentally Responsible Aviation (ERA) project goals is presented. To investigate the technical and economic feasibility of modifying an existing aircraft, a highly modified Boeing 717 was developed for maturation of technologies supporting the three ERA project goals of reduced fuel burn, noise, and emissions. This modified 717 utilizes midfuselage mounted modern high bypass ratio engines in conjunction with engine exhaust shielding structures to provide a low noise testbed. The testbed also integrates a natural laminar flow wing section and active flow control for the vertical tail. An eight year program plan was created to incrementally modify and test the vehicle, enabling the suite of technology benefits to be isolated and quantified. Based on the conceptual design and programmatic plan for this testbed vehicle, a full costestimate of $526M was developed, representing then-year dollars at a 50% confidence level.

The increasing number of space debris objects, especially in distinct low Earth orbit (LEO) altitudes between 600 and 1000 km, leads to an increase in the potential collision risk between the objects and threatens active satellites in that region. Several recent studies show that active debris removal (ADR) has to be performed in order to prevent a collisional cascading effect, also known as the Kessler syndrome. In order to stabilize the population growth in the critical LEO region, a removal of five prioritized objects per year has been recognized as a significant figure. Various proposals are addressing the technical issues for ADR missions, including the de-orbiting of objects by means of a service satellite using a chemical or an electric propulsion system. The servicer would rendezvous with a preselected target, perform a docking maneuver and then provide a de-orbit burn to transfer the target on a trajectory where it re-enters the Earth’s atmosphere within a given time frame. In this paper the technical aspects are complemented by a costestimation model, focusing on multi target missions, which are based on a service satellite capable of de-orbiting more than one target within a single mission. The cost model for ADR includes initial development cost, production cost, launch cost and operation cost as well as the modelling of the propulsion system of the servicer. Therefore, different scenarios are defined for chemical and electric propulsion systems as applied to multi target missions, based on a literature review of concepts currently being under discussion. The costs of multi target missions are compared to a scenario where only one target is removed. Also, the results allow to determine an optimum number of objects to be removed per mission and provide numbers which can be used in future studies, e.g. those related to ADR cost and benefit analyses.

This paper is concerned with the bound of the cost of approximate controllability and null controllability of heat equations, i.e., the minimal Lp norm and L∞ norm of a control needed to control the system approximately or a control needed to steer the state of the system to zero. The methods we use combine observability inequalities, energy estimates for heat equations and the dual theory.

This document contains a description of the preferred 16 Tesla dipole magnet baseline design with its expected performances. The document also includes an analysis of the individual merits and risks of the different, initial design options and gives a justification for the selection of the baseline design. The deliverable includes expected field levels, field errors and a costestimate, which serve as input for the arc design consolidation.

At the same time, increased use of domestic biofuels ( ethanol and biodiesel )…expanded domestic supplies and reduced the need for imports” (EIA, 2011...3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED Master’s Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE A CostEstimation of Biofuels for Naval Aviation: Budgeting for the Great...Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) in 2009 titled “Near-Term Feasibility of Alternative Jet Fuels.” Over the past three years, multiple MIT theses

Full Text Available The estimation of operating costs of agricultural and forestry machineries is a key factor in both planning agricultural policies and farm management. Few works have tried to estimate operating costs and the produced models are normally based on deterministic approaches. Conversely, in the statistical model randomness is present and variable states are not described by unique values, but rather by probability distributions. In this study, for the first time, a multivariate statistical model based on Partial Least Squares (PLS was adopted to predict the fuel consumption and costs of six agricultural operations such as: ploughing, harrowing, fertilization, sowing, weed control and shredding. The prediction was conducted on two steps: first of all few initial selected parameters (time per surface-area unit, maximum engine power, purchase price of the tractor and purchase price of the operating machinery were used to estimate the fuel consumption; then the predicted fuel consumption together with the initial parameters were used to estimate the operational costs. Since the obtained models were based on an input dataset very heterogeneous, these resulted to be extremely efficient and so generalizable and robust. In details the results show prediction values in the test with r always ≥ 0.91. Thus, the approach may results extremely useful for both farmers (in terms of economic advantages and at institutional level (representing an innovative and efficient tool for planning future Rural Development Programmes and the Common Agricultural Policy. In light of these advantages the proposed approach may as well be implemented on a web platform and made available to all the stakeholders.

Full Text Available The need to accurately estimate time and cost for effective planning of software projects is becoming crucial driven by the escalating demands of the software market. Several models proposed in the history of Software Engineering discipline to estimate time, costs associated with planning and managing software projects as Line of Code (LOC, Function Point (FP and Constructive Cost Model (COCOMO. This paper focuses upon the COCOMO Model. It is further consisted of its two sub models called COCOMO I and COCOMO II. The primary objective of this research is to use an appropriate case study to evaluate the accuracy of the sub models COCOMO I and II and ascertain the variation of the realistic resource effort, staff and time. The findings to date show that the Application Composition Model of COCOMO II is more accurate in determining time and cost for the successful conclusion of a software project than the other two COCOMO I and II Models for a similar application for example Task Manager.

Laser cutting is a popular manufacturing process utilized to cut various types of materials economically. The operating cost is affected by laser power, cutting speed, assist gas pressure, nozzle diameter and focus point position as well as the workpiece material. In this article, the process factors investigated were: laser power, cutting speed, air pressure and focal point position. The aim of this work is to relate the operating cost to the process parameters mentioned above. CO2 laser cutting of stainless steel of medical grade AISI316L has been investigated. The main goal was to analyze the operating cost through the laser power, cutting speed, air pressure, focal point position and material thickness. Since the laser operating cost is a complex, non-linear task, soft computing optimization algorithms can be used. Intelligent soft computing scheme support vector regression (SVR) was implemented. The performance of the proposed estimator was confirmed with the simulation results. The SVR results are then compared with artificial neural network and genetic programing. According to the results, a greater improvement in estimation accuracy can be achieved through the SVR compared to other soft computing methodologies. The new optimization methods benefit from the soft computing capabilities of global optimization and multiobjective optimization rather than choosing a starting point by trial and error and combining multiple criteria into a single criterion.

reliable information on economic losses associated with landslides. Each State survey examined the availability, distribution, and inherent uncertainties of economic loss data in their study areas. Their results provide the basis for identifying the most fruitful methods of collecting landslide loss data nationally, using methods that are consistent and provide common goals. These results can enhance and establish the future directions of scientific investigation priorities by convincingly documenting landslide risks and consequences that are universal throughout the 50 States. This report is organized as follows: A general summary of the pilot project history, goals, and preliminary conclusions from the Lincoln, Neb. workshop are presented first. Internet links are then provided for each State report, which appear on the internet in PDF format and which have been placed at the end of this open-file report. A reference section follows the reports, and, lastly, an Appendix of categories of landslide loss and sources of loss information is included for the reader's information. Please note: The Oregon Geological Survey has also submitted a preliminary report on indirect loss estimation methodology, which is also linked with the others. Each State report is unique and presented in the form in which it was submitted, having been independently peer reviewed by each respective State survey. As such, no universal 'style' or format has been adopted as there have been no decisions on which inventory methods will be recommended to the 50 states, as of this writing. The reports are presented here as information for decision makers, and for the record; although several reports provide recommendations on inventory methods that could be adopted nationwide, currently no decisions have been made on adopting a uniform methodology for the States.

Full Text Available The transport sector represents a vital component of national economies and has significant impacts on productivity and social welfare. In 2012, the transport sector in Europe was estimated to account for 3.7% of the European Gross Domestic Product (GDP and 5.1% for employment. Road transport proves to be the predominant mode for moving goods within Europe holding a share of approximately 45.8% in 2012 (in ton-kms. In Greece, the share of road freight transport is significantly higher (98% indicating the importance of this sector for the Greek economy. To this end and considering the existing needs of road freight transport operators in Greece, the objective of this research is to establish an analytical and documented basis for estimating the operating cost of a truck on specific urban or national freight transport routes. To achieve this goal, an extended literature review has been conducted resulting in the identification of the main components comprising the total truck operating cost, which were then updated and validated through a series of personal interviews with selected road freight transport professionals. An excel-based application tool was also developed in order to facilitate operating costestimates for different cases, through selection of the proper values of the relevant parameters. The resulting tool was used to analyse four test cases, which demonstrate the tool’s usability and applicability. Results from this analysis have been also validated by industry experts and they reflect real-world transport scenarios.

The Early Flight Fission-Test Facilities (EFF-TF) team at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) has been tasked by the Naval Reactors Prime Contract Team (NRPCT) to provide a cost and delivery rough order of magnitude estimate for a refractory metal-based lithium (Li) flow circuit. The design is based on the stainless steel Li flow circuit that is currently being assembled for an NRPCT task underway at the EFF-TF. While geometrically the flow circuit is not representative of a final flight prototype, knowledge has been gained to quantify (time and cost) the materials, manufacturing, fabrication, assembly, and operations to produce a testable configuration. This Technical Memorandum (TM) also identifies the following key issues that need to be addressed by the fabrication process: Alloy selection and forming, cost and availability, welding, bending, machining, assembly, and instrumentation. Several candidate materials were identified by NRPCT including molybdenum (Mo) alloy (Mo-47.5 %Re), tantalum (Ta) alloys (T-111, ASTAR-811C), and niobium (Nb) alloy (Nb-1 %Zr). This TM is focused only on the Mo and Ta alloys, since they are of higher concern to the ongoing effort. The initial estimate to complete a Mo-47%Re system ready for testing is =$9,000k over a period of 30 mo. The initial estimate to complete a T-111 or ASTAR-811C system ready for testing is =$12,000k over a period of 36 mo.

Market disciplines and incentives were expected to improve efficiency in the UK National Health Service following the introduction of an 'internal market' in 1991. An exploratory survey of all Health Authorities and Trusts in the UK was undertaken to investigate whether players in the NHS managed market are behaving as economic theory predicts they should. The focus was on how and to what extent marginal costing has been used in the contracting process and on whether in some instances an inappropriate use of marginal costing may be resulting in inappropriate investment decisions. Twenty of 29 responding Health Authorities (69%) and 16 of 39 Trusts (41%) stated that they had considered purchasing/providing services on a marginal-cost basis and all of these led to contracts. Marginal-cost contracting appears to be fairly commonplace and the process does not appear to be causing insurmountable conflicts between players. Most marginal-cost contracts were specifically to meet waiting-list initiative targets. Overall results suggest that economic principles are not being particularly adhered to, with expansion in output rarely being related to available capacity. As increased responsibility for commissioning passes to primary care teams and local health groups, there are lessons for those involved in this more disaggregated approach to service shaping and service delivery.

Full Text Available In this study, a techno–economic model was used to calculate the costs of CO2 transport and specify the major equipment required for transport in order to demonstrate and implement CO2 sequestration in the offshore sediments of South Korea. First, three different carbon capture and storage demonstration scenarios were set up involving the use of three CO2 capture plants and one offshore storage site. Each transport scenario considered both the pipeline transport and ship transport options. The temperature and pressure conditions of CO2 in each transport stage were determined from engineering and economic viewpoints, and the corresponding specifications and equipment costs were calculated. The transport costs for a 1 MtCO2/year transport rate were estimated to be US$33/tCO2 and US$28/tCO2 for a pipeline transport of ~530 km and ship transport of ~724 km, respectively. Through the economies of scale effect, the pipeline and ship transport costs for a transport rate of 3 MtCO2/year were reduced to approximately US$21/tCO2 and US$23/tCO2, respectively. A CO2 hub terminal did not significantly reduce the cost because of the short distance from the hub to the storage site and the small number of captured sources.

The G8 is considering committing to purchase vaccines against diseases concentrated in low-income countries (if and when desirable vaccines are developed) as a way to spur research and development on vaccines for these diseases. Under such an 'advance market commitment,' one or more sponsors would commit to a minimum price to be paid per person immunized for an eligible product, up to a certain number of individuals immunized. For additional purchases, the price would eventually drop to close to marginal cost. If no suitable product were developed, no payments would be made. We estimate the offer size which would make revenues similar to the revenues realized from investments in typical existing commercial pharmaceutical products, as well as the degree to which various model contracts and assumptions would affect the cost-effectiveness of such a commitment. We make adjustments for lower marketing costs under an advance market commitment and the risk that a developer may have to share the market with subsequent developers. We also show how this second risk could be reduced, and money saved, by introducing a superiority clause to a commitment. Under conservative assumptions, we document that a commitment comparable in value to sales earned by the average of a sample of recently launched commercial products (adjusted for lower marketing costs) would be a highly cost-effective way to address HIV/AIDS, malaria, and tuberculosis. Sensitivity analyses suggest most characteristics of a hypothetical vaccine would have little effect on the cost-effectiveness, but that the duration of protection conferred by a vaccine strongly affects potential cost-effectiveness. Readers can conduct their own sensitivity analyses employing a web-based spreadsheet tool.

Immediate adequacy assessment for thyroid fine-needle aspirations (FNAs) is standard practice in many cytopathology laboratories. A pathologist is usually present for these time consuming assessments. The purpose of this 5 month study (January 2008-May 2008) was to show that cytotechnologists can accurately provide the majority of immediate adequacy assessments for thyroid FNAs, saving both time and money for pathologists, clinicians, and patients. The study consisted of 167 thyroid nodule FNAs performed in twice weekly thyroid FNA clinics. A comparison was made of the immediate assessments by five participating cytotechnologists and the preliminary and final diagnoses by three pathologists. The cytotechnologist prepared the slides, assessed the air-dried Hema-Diff™ stained slides for adequacy, and the pathologist viewed the slides remotely via real-time video streaming. Results were recorded in an Excel spreadsheet. There was a discordance rate of 1.2% when comparing the cytotechnologist's adequacy interpretation and the pathologist's preliminary diagnosis; both clinically insignificant. By cytotechnologist assessment, 79.0% of the cases were benign and 6.6% were nondiagnostic. 14.4% of the cases were assessed as cellular nodule or neoplastic lesion; all requiring pathologist's preliminary diagnosis. Utilizing a cytotechnologist to provide adequacy, instead of a pathologist, saved $464.10/case (2.38 passes/case) based on current gross technical and professional charges. On the basis of our findings, cytotechnologists can accurately provide immediate onsite adequacy assessments for thyroid nodule FNAs. Affording cytotechnologists the opportunity to preliminarily assess FNAs for adequacy also creates a new role in the laboratory. Furthermore, cost-savings are realized for patients and the health care system.

Model Estimates for All F-35 Variants Weight growth in all F-35 variants was a driver of cost growth between MS B paper designs and the current ...reflecting updated weight and commonality are in line with cost growth through the Aircraft Weight Growth row. Not accounted for in this application of the...Estimating Program Costs : F-35 Case Study Stanley Horowitz, Assistant Division Director, Institute for Defense Analyses Bruce Harmon, Research Staff Member

Immediately following the Mw 7.2 Darfield, New Zealand, earthquake, over 180 Quake‐Catcher Network (QCN) low‐cost micro‐electro‐mechanical systems accelerometers were deployed in the Canterbury region. Using data recorded by this dense network from 2010 to 2013, we significantly improved the QCN rapid magnitude estimation relationship. The previous scaling relationship (Lawrence et al., 2014) did not accurately estimate the magnitudes of nearby (estimates earthquake magnitudes within 1 magnitude unit of the GNS Science GeoNet earthquake catalog magnitudes for 99% of the events tested, within 0.5 magnitude units for 90% of the events, and within 0.25 magnitude units for 57% of the events. These magnitudes are reliably estimated within 3 s of the initial trigger recorded on at least seven stations. In this report, we present the methods used to calculate a new scaling relationship and demonstrate the accuracy of the revised magnitude estimates using a program that is able to retrospectively estimate event magnitudes using archived data.

The electric utility industry in the United States is currently experiencing a new and different type of growing pain. It is the pain of having to restructure itself into a competitive business. Many industry experts are trying to explain how the nation as a whole, as well as individual states, will implement restructuring and handle its numerous "transition problems." One significant transition problem for federal and state regulators rests with determining a utility's stranded costs. Stranded generation facilities are assets which would be uneconomic in a competitive environment or costs for assets whose regulated book value is greater than market value. At issue is the methodology which will be used to estimate stranded costs. The two primary methods are known as "Top-Down" and "Bottom-Up." The "Top-Down" approach simply determines the present value of the losses in revenue as the market price for electricity changes over a period of time into the future. The problem with this approach is that it does not take into account technical issues associated with the generation and wheeling of electricity. The "Bottom-Up" approach computes the present value of specific strandable generation facilities and compares the resulting valuations with their historical costs. It is regarded as a detailed and difficult, but more precise, approach to identifying stranded assets and their associated costs. This dissertation develops a "Bottom-Up" quantitative, optimization-based approach to electric power wheeling within the state of Louisiana. It optimally evaluates all production capabilities and coordinates the movement of bulk power through transmission interconnections of competing companies in and around the state. Sensitivity analysis to this approach is performed by varying seasonal consumer demand, electric power imports, and transmission inter-connection cost parameters. Generation facility economic dispatch and transmission interconnection bulk power transfers, specific

Full Text Available Abstract Background The Ministry of Health (MoH in Zambia is operating with fewer than half of the human resources for health (HRH necessary to meet basic population health needs. Responding urgently to address this HRH crisis, the MoH plans to double the annual number of health training graduates in the next five years to increase the supply of health workers. The feasibility and costs of achieving this initiative, however, are unclear. Methods We determined the feasibility and costs of doubling training institution output through an individual school assessment framework. Assessment teams, comprised of four staff from the MoH and Clinton Health Access Initiative, visited all of Zambia's 39 public and private health training institutions from 17 April to 19 June 2008. Teams consulted with faculty and managers at each training institution to determine if student enrollment could double within five years; an operational planning exercise carried out with school staff determined the investments and additional operating costs necessary to achieve expansion. Cost assumptions were developed using historical cost data. Results The individual school assessments affirmed the MoH's ability to double the graduate output of Zambia's public health training institutions. Lack of infrastructure was determined as a key bottleneck in achieving this increase while meeting national training quality standards. A total investment of US$ 58.8 million is required to meet expansion infrastructure needs, with US$ 35.0 million (59.5% allocated to expanding student accommodation and US$ 23.8 million (40.5% allocated to expanding teaching, studying, office, and dining space. The national number of teaching staff must increase by 363 (111% increase over the next five years. The additional recurring costs, which include salaries for additional teachers and operating expenses for new students, are estimated at US$ 58.0 million over the five-year scale-up period. Total cost

The results of a brief preliminary design study of a facility for transient nuclear tests of fast breeder reactor fuel are described. The study is based on the use of a reactor building originally built for the UHTREX reactor, and the use of some reactor hardware and reactor design and fabrication technology remaining from the Phoebus-2 reactor of the Rover nulcear rocket propulsion program. The facility is therefore currently identified as the PHOEBUS/UHTREX facility. This facility is believed capable of providing early information regarding fast reactor core accident energetics issues which will be very valuable to the overall LMFBR safety program. Facility performance in conjunction with a reference 127-fuel pin experiment is described. Low cost and early availability of the facility were emphasized in the selection of design features and parameters.

Full Text Available We aimed to use the willingness to pay (WTP method to calculate the cost of traffic injuries in Iran in 2013. We conducted a cross-sectional questionnaire-based study of 846 randomly selected road users. WTP data was collected for four scenarios for vehicle occupants, pedestrians, vehicle drivers, and motorcyclists. Final analysis was carried out using Weibull and maximum likelihood method. Mean WTP was 2,612,050 Iranian rials (IRR. Statistical value of life was estimated according to 20,408 fatalities 402,314,106,073,648 IRR (US$13,410,470,202 based on purchasing power parity at (February 27th, 2014. Injury cost was US$25,637,870,872 (based on 318,802 injured people in 2013, multiple daily traffic volume of 311, and multiple daily payment of 31,030 IRR for 250 working days. The total estimatedcost of injury and death cases was 39,048,341,074$. Gross national income of Iran was, US$604,300,000,000 in 2013 and the costs of traffic injuries constituted 6·46% of gross national income. WTP was significantly associated with age, gender, monthly income, daily payment, more payment for time reduction, trip mileage, drivers and occupants from road users. The costs of traffic injuries in Iran in 2013 accounted for 6.64% of gross national income, much higher than the global average. Policymaking and resource allocation to reduce traffic-related death and injury rates have the potential to deliver a huge economic benefit.

Issue: Policymakers have sought to improve the shopping experience on the Affordable Care Act’s marketplaces by offering decision support tools that help consumers better understand and compare their health plan options. Costestimators are one such tool. They are designed to provide consumers a personalized estimate of the total cost--premium, minus subsidy, plus cost-sharing--of their coverage options. Costestimators were available in most states by the start of the fourth open enrollment period. Goal: To understand the experiences of marketplaces that offer a total costestimator and the interests and concerns of policymakers from states that are not using them. Methods: Structured interviews with marketplace officials, consumer enrollment assisters, technology vendors, and subject matter experts; analysis of the total costestimators available on the marketplaces as of October 2016. Key findings and conclusions: Informants strongly supported marketplace adoption of a total costestimator. Marketplaces that offer an estimator faced a range of design choices and varied significantly in their approaches to resolving them. Interviews suggested a clear need for additional consumer testing and data analysis of tool usage and for sustained outreach to enrollment assisters to encourage greater use of the estimators.

The Collaborative Modeling for Parametric Assessment of Space Systems (COMPASS) team at Glenn Research Center has performed integrated system analysis of conceptual spacecraft mission designs since 2006 using a multidisciplinary concurrent engineering process. The set of completed designs was archived in a database, to allow for the study of relationships between design parameters. Although COMPASS uses a parametric spacecraft costing model, this research investigated the possibility of using a top-down approach to rapidly estimate the overall vehicle costs. This paper presents the relationships between significant design variables, including breakdowns of dry mass, wet mass, and cost. It also develops a model for a broad estimate of these parameters through basic mission characteristics, including the target location distance, the payload mass, the duration, the delta-v requirement, and the type of mission, propulsion, and electrical power. Finally, this paper examines the accuracy of this model in regards to past COMPASS designs, with an assessment of outlying spacecraft, and compares the results to historical data of completed NASA missions.

As we know, many biological systems such as neurons or the heart can exhibit chaotic behavior. Conventional methods for parameter estimation in models of these systems have some limitations caused by sensitivity to initial conditions. In this paper, a novel cost function is proposed to overcome those limitations by building a statistical model on the distribution of the real system attractor in state space. This cost function is defined by the use of a likelihood score in a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) which is fitted to the observed attractor generated by the real system. Using that learned GMM, a similarity score can be defined by the computed likelihood score of the model time series. We have applied the proposed method to the parameter estimation of two important biological systems, a neuron and a cardiac pacemaker, which show chaotic behavior. Some simulated experiments are given to verify the usefulness of the proposed approach in clean and noisy conditions. The results show the adequacy of the proposed cost function.

Full Text Available Investors value the special attributes of monetary assets (e.g., exchangeability, liquidity, and safety and pay a premium for holding them in the form of a lower return rate. The user cost of holding monetary assets can be measured approximately by the difference between the returns on illiquid risky assets and those of safer liquid assets. A more appropriate measure should adjust this difference by the differential risk of the assets in question. We investigate the impact that time non-separable preferences has on the estimation of the risk-adjusted user cost of money. Using U.K. data from 1965Q1 to 2011Q1, we estimate a habit-based asset pricing model with money in the utility function and find that the risk adjustment for risky monetary assets is negligible. Thus, researchers can dispense with risk adjusting the user cost of money in constructing monetary aggregate indexes.

Water scarcity is one of the main problems faced by many regions in the XXIst century. In this context, the need to reduce leakages from water distribution systems has gained almost universal acceptance. The concept of sustainable economic level of leakage (SELL) has been proposed to internalize the environmental and resource costs within economic level of leakage calculations. However, because these costs are not set by the market, they have not often been calculated. In this paper, the directional-distance function was used to estimate the shadow price of leakages as a proxy of their environmental and resource costs. This is a pioneering approach to the economic valuation of leakage externalities. An empirical application was carried out for the main Chilean water companies. The estimated results indicated that for 2014, the average shadow price of leakages was approximately 32% of the price of the water delivered. Moreover, as a sensitivity analysis, the shadow prices of the leakages were calculated from the perspective of the water companies' managers and the regulator. The methodology and findings of this study are essential for supporting the decision process of reducing leakage, contributing to the improvement of economic, social and environmental efficiency and sustainability of urban water supplies.

Full Text Available Abstract Background Millions of children die every year in developing countries, from preventable diseases such as pneumonia and diarrhoea, owing to low levels of investment in child health. Investment efforts are hampered by a general lack of adequate information that is necessary for priority setting in this sector. This paper measures the health system costs of providing inpatient and outpatient services, and also the costs associated with treating pneumonia and diarrhoea in under-five children at a health centre in Zambia. Methods Annual economic and financial cost data were collected in 2005-2006. Data were summarized in a Microsoft excel spreadsheet to obtain total department costs and average disease treatment costs. Results The total annual cost of operating the health centre was US$1,731,661 of which US$1 284 306 and US$447,355 were patient care and overhead departments costs, respectively. The average cost of providing out-patient services was US$3 per visit, while the cost of in-patient treatment was US$18 per bed day. The cost of providing dental services was highest at US$20 per visit, and the cost of VCT services was lowest, with US$1 per visit. The cost per out-patient visit for under-five pneumonia was US$48, while the cost per bed day was US$215. The cost per outpatient visit attributed to under-five diarrhoea was US$26, and the cost per bed day was US$78. Conclusion In the face of insufficient data, a cost analysis exercise is a difficult but feasible undertaking. The study findings are useful and applicable in similar settings, and can be used in cost effectiveness analyses of health interventions.

Full Text Available Production of refuse derived fuel from municipal solid waste in future shall play a strategic role in an integrated waste management system. The amount of landfilled biodegradable materials thus will be diminished according to provisions of the 1999 Waste Landfill Directive. The aim of this article is to evaluate cost effectiveness based on cost evaluation of the different complication of the waste pre-treatment equipment complectation and based on regenerable waste quantities in Latvia. The comparison of costestimates is done in 3 scenarios considering potential waste quantities in Latvia: Scenario I - planned annual waste quantity is 20 kT; Scenario II - 40 kT and Scenario III - 160 kT. An increase in amount of waste and processing capacity means the decrease in costs of mechanical pre-treatment of 1 ton of waste. Thus, costs of mechanical sorting line under different scenarios with capacities of 10 t h-1, 20 t h-1 and 80 t h-1 are EUR 32 per t, EUR 24 per t and EUR 15 per t, respectively. Most feasible cost for a set of mechanical pre-treatment equipment for the capacity of 10 t h-1 is EUR 32 per t by using rotating drum screener with the following manual sorting. Mechanical pre-treatment equipment of unsorted municipal waste is economically nonbeneficial, when the use of fine (biologically degradable fraction is not possible. As the sorting of biodegradable kitchen waste is not developed under the current waste management system in Latvia, the lines for mechanical pre-treatment of household waste would be better to install in landfills.

The Gravity and Ocean Circulation Experiment - GOCE satellite mission measure the Earth gravity field with unprecedented accuracy leading to substantial improvements in the modelling of the ocean circulation and transport. In this study of the performance of GOCE, the new preliminary gravity mode...

Dengue represents a substantial burden in many tropical and sub-tropical regions of the world. We estimated the economic burden of dengue illness in Malaysia. Information about economic burden is needed for setting health policy priorities, but accurate estimation is difficult because of incomplete data. We overcame this limitation by merging multiple data sources to refine our estimates, including an extensive literature review, discussion with experts, review of data from health and surveillance systems, and implementation of a Delphi process. Because Malaysia has a passive surveillance system, the number of dengue cases is under-reported. Using an adjusted estimate of total dengue cases, we estimated an economic burden of dengue illness of US$56 million (Malaysian Ringgit MYR196 million) per year, which is approximately US$2.03 (Malaysian Ringgit 7.14) per capita. The overall economic burden of dengue would be even higher if we included costs associated with dengue prevention and control, dengue surveillance, and long-term sequelae of dengue.

China's coal-dominated energy pattern has resulted in large amount of SO2 emissions. Estimate of the sulfur-related health damage cost is necessary to help perform systematic cost-benefit analysis and set national energy and emissions control priorities. Current researches were confined to gaseous SO2 in urban areas; however, secondary sulfate (SO42-) particles can exert serious impact in a wider region. Based on the concept of "intake fraction", CALPUFF long-range dispersion model and 180 sample emission sources, multiple regression equation was obtained with good correlation(r=0.85), which illustrates that populations were key parameters to determine intake fraction but source characteristics were insignificant. Based on the formula and the population distribution data, county-level intake fractions were mapped for Hunan Province(range: 1.1×10-6-3.2×10-6) of China. A combination of county-level SO2 emissions with the intake fractions yields a total 1.98 tons of sulfate(SO42-) inhalation, and resulting total health damage cost to be 0.76(willingness to pay approach) or 0.16(human capital approach) billion USD in 1997, about 2.1% or 0.45% of GDP in Hunan in 1997. Average health damage cost per ton of SO2 emission is 930(willingness to pay approach) or 200 USD(human capital approach). The results demonstrated that more stringent regulation should be forced.

The primary purpose of this paper is to review currently existing costestimation methods, models, tools and resources applicable to the space sector. While key space sector methods are outlined, a specific focus is placed on hardware costestimation on a system level, particularly for early mission phases during which specifications and requirements are not yet crystallised, and information is limited. For the space industry, cost engineering within the systems engineering framework is an integral discipline. The cost of any space program now constitutes a stringent design criterion, which must be considered and carefully controlled during the entire program life cycle. A first step to any program budget is a representative costestimate which usually hinges on a particular estimation approach, or methodology. Therefore appropriate selection of specific cost models, methods and tools is paramount, a difficult task given the highly variable nature, scope as well as scientific and technical requirements applicable to each program. Numerous methods, models and tools exist. However new ways are needed to address very early, pre-Phase 0 costestimation during the initial program research and establishment phase when system specifications are limited, but the available research budget needs to be established and defined. Due to their specificity, for vehicles such as reusable launchers with a manned capability, a lack of historical data implies that using either the classic heuristic approach such as parametric costestimation based on underlying CERs, or the analogy approach, is therefore, by definition, limited. This review identifies prominent costestimation models applied to the space sector, and their underlying cost driving parameters and factors. Strengths, weaknesses, and suitability to specific mission types and classes are also highlighted. Current approaches which strategically amalgamate various costestimation strategies both for formulation and validation

is highlighted using the synthesis and design of a biorefinery as a case study. The impact of uncertainties in costestimation on the identification of optimal processing paths is indeed found to be profound. To tackle this challenge, a comprehensive techno-economic risk analysis framework is presented to enable......Capital investment, next to the product demand, sales, and production costs, is one of the key metrics commonly used for project evaluation and feasibility assessment. Estimating the investment costs of a new product/process alternative during early-stage design is a challenging task, which......) the Monte Carlo technique as an error propagation method based on expert input when cost data are not available. Four well-known models for early-stage costestimation are reviewed and analyzed using the methodology. The significance of uncertainties of cost data for early-stage process design...

Full Text Available Capital investment, next to the product demand, sales and production costs, is one of the key metrics commonly used for project evaluation and feasibility assessment. Estimating the investment costs of a new product/process alternative during early stage design is a challenging task. This is especially important in biorefinery research, where available information and experiences with new technologies is limited. A systematic methodology for uncertainty analysis of cost data is proposed that employs (a Bootstrapping as a regression method when cost data is available and (b the Monte Carlo technique as an error propagation method based on expert input when cost data is not available. Four well-known models for early stage costestimation are reviewed an analyzed using the methodology. The significance of uncertainties of cost data for early stage process design is highlighted using the synthesis and design of a biorefinery as a case study. The impact of uncertainties in costestimation on the identification of optimal processing paths is found to be profound. To tackle this challenge, a comprehensive techno-economic risk analysis framework is presented to enable robust decision making under uncertainties. One of the results using an order-of-magnitude estimate shows that the production of diethyl ether and 1,3-butadiene are the most promising with economic risks of 0.24 MM$/a and 4.6 MM$/a due to uncertainties in costestimations, respectively.

An experimental validation of a low-cost method for extrapolation and estimation of the maximal electromagnetic-field exposure from long-term evolution (LTE) radio base station installations are presented. No knowledge on downlink band occupation or service characteristics is required for the low-cost method. The method is applicable in situ. It only requires a basic spectrum analyser with appropriate field probes without the need of expensive dedicated LTE decoders. The method is validated both in laboratory and in situ, for a single-input single-output antenna LTE system and a 2×2 multiple-input multiple-output system, with low deviations in comparison with signals measured using dedicated LTE decoders.

This work is concerned with stochastic optimal control for a running maximum cost. A direct approach based on dynamic programming techniques is studied leading to the characterization of the value function as the unique viscosity solution of a second order Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman (HJB) equation with an oblique derivative boundary condition. A general numerical scheme is proposed and a convergence result is provided. Error estimates are obtained for the semi-Lagrangian scheme. These results can apply to the case of lookback options in finance. Moreover, optimal control problems with maximum cost arise in the characterization of the reachable sets for a system of controlled stochastic differential equations. Some numerical simulations on examples of reachable analysis are included to illustrate our approach.

At the request of DOE's Office of Energy Storage and Distribution (OESD), Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) conducted a study to generate estimates of the energy use and costs associated with the aluminum anode fuel cycle of the aluminum-air (Al-air) battery. The results of this analysis indicate that the cost and energy consumption characteristics of the mechanically rechargeable Al-air battery system are not as attractive as some other electrically rechargeable electric vehicle battery systems being developed by OESD. However, there are distinct advantages to mechanically rechargeable batteries, which may make the Al-air battery (or other mechanically rechargeable batteries) attractive for other uses, such as stand-alone applications. Fuel cells, such as the proton exchange membrane (PEM), and advanced secondary batteries may be better suited to electric vehicle applications. 26 refs., 3 figs., 25 tabs.

The Australian federal government has proposed an AUD $7 patient co-payment for a general practitioner (GP) consultation. One effect of the co-payment may be that patients will seek assistance at public hospital emergency departments (EDs), where currently there is no user charge. We studied the possible financial impact of patient diversion on the Western Australia (WA) health budget. We constructed a spreadsheet model of changes in annual cash flows including the co-payment, GP fees for service, and rates of diversion to emergency departments with additional marginal costs for ED attendance. Changes in WA cash flows are the aggregate of marginal ED costs of treating diverted patients and added expenditure in fees paid to rural doctors who also man local emergency centres. The estimatedcosts to WA are AUD $6.3 million, $35.9 million and $87.4 million at 1, 5, and 10 per cent diversion, respectively. Commonwealth receipts increase and expenditure on Medicare benefits declines. A diversion of patients from GP surgeries to ED in WA caused by the co-payment will result in increased costs to the state, which may be substantial, and will reduce net costs to the Commonwealth.

Measures taken over the past four years in Greece to reduce pharmaceutical expenditure have led to significant price reductions for medicines, but have also changed patient cost-sharing rates for prescription drugs. This study attempts to capture the resulting increase in patients' out-of-pocket (OOP) expenses for prescription drugs during the 2011-2014 period. The authors conducted a retrospective review of financial data derived from 39 883 prescriptions, dispensed at three randomly chosen pharmacies located in Lamia, central Greece. The study recorded an average contribution rate per prescription as follows: 11.28% for 2011 (95% CI: 10.76-11.80), 14.10% for 2012, 19.97% for 2013, and 29.08% for 2014. Correspondingly, the mean patient charge per prescription for 2011 was €6.58 (95% CI: 6.22-6.94), €8.28 for 2012, €8.35 for 2013, and €10.87 for 2014. During the 2011-2014 period, mean percentage rate of patient contribution increased by 157.75%, while average patient charge per prescription in current prices increased by 65.22%. The use of a newly introduced internal reference price (IRP) system increased the level of prescription charge at a rate of 2.41% for 2012 (100% surcharge on patients), 26.24% for 2013 (49.95% on patients and 50.04% on the appropriate health insurance funds), and 47.72% for 2014 (85.06% on patients and 14.94% on funds). Increased cost-sharing rates for prescription drugs can reduce public pharmaceutical expenditure, but international experience shows that rising OOP expenses can compromise patients' ability to pay, particularly when it comes to chronic diseases and vulnerable populations. Various suggestions could be effective in refining the cost-sharing approach by giving greater consideration to chronic patients, and to the poor and elderly.

The phytoplankton community is controlled not only by local environmental conditions but also by physical processes occurring on different temporal and spatial scales. Hydrodynamic local conditions play an important role in marine ecosystems. Several studies have shown that hydrodynamic conditions can influence the phytoplankton settling velocity, vertical and horizontal distribution and formation of cyanobacterial blooms. Mesocosms are useful structures to simulate marine environment at mesoscale resolution; allowing to closely approximate biotic or abiotic parameters of interest directly in nature. In this work an innovative structure named PE.MA.M (PElagic MArine Mesocosm) is presented and tested. Laboratory experiments have been conducted in order to observe seasonal variations of biomass behaviour in two different hydrodynamic conditions: outside as well as whithin the PE.MA.M. We have evaluated whether it is possible to isolate a natural system from external water mass hydrodynamic exchanges and to assume that phytoplankton cells' transition is limited at the net and sea interface. Preliminary experiments test the isolating capacity of the net, to determine the currents' attenuation rate and to estimate the possible PE.MA.M. offshore behaviour. In the first investigation, we monitored the diffusion of phytoplankton cells. The PE.MA.M. exterior and interior were simulated using a plexiglass tank divided into two half-tanks (Aout-Bin) by a septum consisting of a net like a PE.MA.M. The tank was filled up with 10 L of water and only the half-tank Aout was filled up with 10 ml of phytoplankton culture (Clorella sp.). We monitored the chlorophyll concentrations for 24 hours. The two tanks had similar concentrations after 4 hours (2.70322 mg/m³ Aout and 2.37245 mg/m3 Bin) and this constant relationship was maintened until the end of the test. In the second investigation we used clod cards to measure water motions.We conducted two experiments within tank, the first

The report describes a revision of the costestimate for the decommissioning of the research Reactor DR 3 as described in the report Risø-R-1250(EN). Decommissioning of the Nuclear Facilities at Risø National Laboratory. Edited by Kurt Lauridsen. Therevision has been performed by the planning group...... in the Risø Decommissioning Department, and has been carried out as a discussion and evaluation of procedures methods and necessary resources to overcome the different phases of the the decommissioningtask of the Reactor....

This work presents the implementation of a matching-based motion estimation sensor on a Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) and NIOS II microprocessor applying a C to Hardware (C2H) acceleration paradigm. The design, which involves several matching algorithms, is mapped using Very Large Scale Integration (VLSI) technology. These algorithms, as well as the hardware implementation, are presented here together with an extensive analysis of the resources needed and the throughput obtained. The developed low-cost system is practical for real-time throughput and reduced power consumption and is useful in robotic applications, such as tracking, navigation using an unmanned vehicle, or as part of a more complex system.

In 2011, energy used by federal buildings cost approximately $7 billion. Reducing federal energy use could help address several important national policy goals, including: (1) increased energy security; (2) lowered emissions of greenhouse gases and other air pollutants; (3) increased return on taxpayer dollars; and (4) increased private sector innovation in energy efficient technologies. This report estimates the impact of efficient product procurement on reducing the amount of wasted energy (and, therefore, wasted money) associated with federal buildings, as well as on reducing the needless greenhouse gas emissions associated with these buildings.

The purpose of the paper is to estimate railway project construction cost based on the nominal market price. Currently, estimation of project costs within railway infrastructure procurement is particularly challenging due to; 1) construction costs highly depend on possession timeframes and duration...... and 2) railway construction work costs are not transparent in the market. This paper suggests separating the costs into 3 sub-categories: materials, labour and machinery. Evidently, the materials are further broke-down into subcomponents which then remains fixed whereas the cost of labour and machinery...... construction project, the new line to the fixed link across Fehmarn Belt, is introduced where it is shown that the non-material cost is about 19% of the total expenditure. By assuming three sets of track blocking scenarios with the same amount of construction works it is proven that given an optimal track...

The purpose of the paper is to estimate railway project construction cost based on the nominal market price. Currently, estimation of project costs within railway infrastructure procurement is particularly challenging due to; 1) construction costs highly depend on possession timeframes and duration...... and 2) railway construction work costs are not transparent in the market. This paper suggests separating the costs into 3 sub-categories: materials, labour and machinery. Evidently, the materials are further broke-down into subcomponents which then remains fixed whereas the cost of labour and machinery...... construction project, the new line to the fixed link across Fehmarn Belt, is introduced where it is shown that the non-material cost is about 19% of the total expenditure. By assuming three sets of track blocking scenarios with the same amount of construction works it is proven that given an optimal track...