.SYNOPSIS...A sharp northern stream shortwave digs over the Great Lakesand phases with a southern stream shortwave. This turns theupper flow more from the southwest and forming a surface lowthat moves up the Southern Appalachians and towards the Canadian Maritime Provinces and draws above average moisture north from the Gulf of Mexico.

Since it will be early morning when precip comes into the region I figure get this going now. Looks like precip soon entering NC and Virginias.

Link to forecasting thread..SYNOPSIS...A sharp northern stream shortwave digs over the Great Lakesand phases with a southern stream shortwave. This turns theupper flow more from the southwest and forming a surface lowthat moves up the Southern Appalachians and towards the Canadian Maritime Provinces and draws above average moisture north from the Gulf of Mexico.

Since it will be early morning when precip comes into the region I figure get this going now. Looks like precip soon entering NC and Virginias.

Link to forecasting thread..SYNOPSIS...A sharp northern stream shortwave digs over the Great Lakesand phases with a southern stream shortwave. This turns theupper flow more from the southwest and forming a surface lowthat moves up the Southern Appalachians and towards the Canadian Maritime Provinces and draws above average moisture north from the Gulf of Mexico. 2:30-6:30pm loop with upper heights.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...A broad upper trough over the country will send a fast movingarea of high pressure to the north tonight and then offshore bydaybreak. At the same time, developing low pressure over theLower Mississippi Valley races northeast as the two streams ofthe polar jet attempt to phase over the northeast quarter ofthe nation on Wednesday.

Clear skies and a light northerly flow will allow for goodcooling tonight with near seasonable lows. Clouds will work intoward daybreak which will be ideal for some low level cold airdamming to develop as a NE flow develops.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...Models are in good overall agreement in taking a fast movinglow from the Ohio Valley northeast across the area throughWednesday evening. A moderate precipitation event will impactthe area with enough cold air damming in place at the onset forall snow to develop during the late morning commute. The lowwill track near or just north of the coastal areas which willallow for temperatures to warm up enough for a change to plainrain by late morning. From NYC and points north and west thetransition will be more gradual from SE to NW through the day.Vertically though it will warm up quickly as a deep-layered SWflow and strong low-level jet, approaching 70-80kt, movesacross the area by late afternoon/early evening. There is someconcern that some high winds could impact eastern Long Islandand southeast Connecticut in the evening as the area brieflygets into the warm sector.

The most challenging part of the forecast is how quickly theprecipitation changes to rain. Vertical temperature profilespoint to much of the area being warm enough for all rain byearly afternoon. The low-level temperatures profiles though tella different story as high res model date supports belowfreezing temperatures lingering into late afternoon. This willdepend on the magnitude of the cold air damming.

As for totals, looking for an inch or less of snowfall alongthe immediate coast, and 4 to 6 inches across northern portionsof the Lower Hudson Valley amd NE NJ. Inland areas will alsosee up to a tenth or two of ice. Thus, the watch has beenupgraded to a warning across these areas for the combinedaffects of snow and ice. Elsewhere, a winter weather advisoryhas been issued for all but Long Island and southeastConnecticut east of Fairfield Connecticut. These locations maysee an inch or two of snowfall and several hundredths of an inchof ice. Connecticut coastal locations, especially souther NewHaven county, which can get good cold air drainage down theConnecticut River Valley on north winds may need to be upgradedto an advisory. This will have to be watched closely with laterguidance.

Precipitation ends by midnight with temperatures not droppingbelow until after the precipitation ends.

Relevant to the current thread: thinking there will be a host of cancellations in the morning, once the superintendents are sure it's going to go as forecast. No point in sending everyone to school just to send them home as it's dumping snow.

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"They said that it was snowing in astounded tones upon the news.I wonder why they're always so surprised, 'cause every year it snows."

Relevant to the current thread: thinking there will be a host of cancellations in the morning, once the superintendents are sure it's going to go as forecast. No point in sending everyone to school just to send them home as it's dumping snow.

Could run an early dismissal. Get out before the freezing rain hits.

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Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3". (As of 02/18).Seasonal Total - 36.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0". 96.1% of average snowfall so far.

Latest Snowpack Observation:02/18 Morning - The aftermath of the overnight snowstorm has blanketed the region with 7.3" of wet snowfall. Quickly melting as temperatures are approaching the 40 degree Fahrenheit mark.

Some EPS ensemble mean snow depth .. the 4" bump has been prominent for days. Nice to see this first "big" test back here, look like it's going to pass .. most of the year has been plagued with tiny bumps or gradual slopes... not this one.

Williamsport

Scranton

Harrisburg

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Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34¼"

Current Season: 20¼"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7¼"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17½"

** "MoM" Certified **

Pro tip for all users: When catching up on a thread, go back at least 2 pages from the current page and read. ... Read ...

Some EPS ensemble mean snow depth .. the 4" bump has been prominent for days. Nice to see this first "big" test back here, look like it's going to pass .. most of the year has been plagued with tiny bumps or gradual slopes... not this one.

Cause you're all about that bump'bout that bumpNo ZR.

Yeah, I'll show myself the door. .

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Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3". (As of 02/18).Seasonal Total - 36.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0". 96.1% of average snowfall so far.

Latest Snowpack Observation:02/18 Morning - The aftermath of the overnight snowstorm has blanketed the region with 7.3" of wet snowfall. Quickly melting as temperatures are approaching the 40 degree Fahrenheit mark.

By the time they get around to the last schools, roads will be slick. In the olden days, when i was a kid, they'd just throw chains on the bus tires and roll. Chains are now illegal, and it's best to err on the side of caution. The NW corner of the state is already cancelling big time;just a matter of time for we who are just south of that. You, on the other hand, will probably have to go to school!

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"They said that it was snowing in astounded tones upon the news.I wonder why they're always so surprised, 'cause every year it snows."

By the time they get around to the last schools, roads will be slick. In the olden days, when i was a kid, they'd just throw chains on the bus tires and roll. Chains are now illegal, and it's best to err on the side of caution. The NW corner of the state is already cancelling big time;just a matter of time for we who are just south of that. You, on the other hand, will probably have to go to school!

Our schools announced closures at 6pm. Actually kinda surprised.. but they flubbed up last Tuesday's poor timing snow event, so that makes Mon/Tue 2 hour delays and tomorrow closure.. wouldn't doubt 2hr delay Thu.. maybe they'll get a full day in Friday lol

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Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34¼"

Current Season: 20¼"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7¼"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17½"

** "MoM" Certified **

Pro tip for all users: When catching up on a thread, go back at least 2 pages from the current page and read. ... Read ...

I am leaning against a full day due to the threat of freezing rain. It'll be hitting the hardest right when school usually dismisses, hence why I think an early dismissal or even a snow day will happen.

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Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3". (As of 02/18).Seasonal Total - 36.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0". 96.1% of average snowfall so far.

Latest Snowpack Observation:02/18 Morning - The aftermath of the overnight snowstorm has blanketed the region with 7.3" of wet snowfall. Quickly melting as temperatures are approaching the 40 degree Fahrenheit mark.

By the time they get around to the last schools, roads will be slick. In the olden days, when i was a kid, they'd just throw chains on the bus tires and roll. Chains are now illegal, and it's best to err on the side of caution. The NW corner of the state is already cancelling big time;just a matter of time for we who are just south of that. You, on the other hand, will probably have to go to school!

So my county in Virginia is not in the winter weather advisory which stops in the county to our West. However the temperature is already down to freezing, 1 degree lower than the official forecast predicts. So we're at 32 with a dew point of 27.

Am I wrong in thinking that when precip starts that temperature will wet-bulb lower and the rain's going to freeze on contact and the forecast here may bust for the a.m. Everyone's talking how the ice will stay to our West. I'm no longer certain that's the case.

Good luck to everyone expecting snow. I've tempered my anticipation into just enough ice so that I don't have to go to work. Then it can change to rain.

I live in Litchfield County, but teach in Fairfield County - - but just south of the county line. I would be very surprised if we're in tomorrow...and more than a little *bleep*ed if the forecast holds and we are sending kids and staff home in unsafe conditions.

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"They said that it was snowing in astounded tones upon the news.I wonder why they're always so surprised, 'cause every year it snows."