Friday, 23 January 2015

1> Black Vale is one of two horses in the race that have been known to lead before but has drawn stall eleven so if gets out and comes across the field to the rail some horses could get squeezed for room early but it's only my seventh best so will need a few others to under perform for it to even make the frame. 2> Archibald Thorburn can be held up or track the leaders but hasn't got any form on this track but its best time from Kempton over this distance isnt good enough to get in my top six so would need to improve for the switch to this course to figure. 3> Caminel can be held up or track the leaders and is my fifth top rated so even if it does get a clear run from stall six doubt it will make the frame. 4> Chevise is drawn in stall three and usually likes to track the leaders and is my third best rating so could have place claims with a clear run. 5> Profile Star is the second horse that's been known to lead but its best form is over five furlongs, even if it gets an uncontested lead I doubt it will be able to keep the lead but it could possibly do enough to make the frame. 6> Gabrials Wawa is my sixth top rated and can be held up or it can track the leaders, it looks like a longer trip could be needed so it would need to be near the front from the start to make its stamina come into play but even then could get outpaced. 7> Lujeanie has been placed on both of its last two starts when finishing third and second, it has come to win both of those races but been outpaced by the winners in those races but this looks a slightly easier task and I think it could get back to winning ways here. 8> Indus valley has only recorded slow times and may be better over a longer trip as it doesn't really run like its a sprinter it does normally like to track the leaders but these might go too fast for it. 9> Calling You may need the run as it hasn't run since August, it can either track the leaders or be held up, it has only run twice since coming over from Ireland where it has won over this distance on the all weather so it could be a hidden danger. 10> Humour hasn't got any course and distance form to look at but it might prefer a longer trip and it does like to track the leaders but it might get outpaced and is drawn stall seven so needs luck to get a clear run early on. 11> Burnt Cream won last time out here but over five furlongs and it doesn't look like it really stays six furlongs and may struggle here. 12> Saskia's Dream is well weighted on its best form and comes out as my second top rated and can track the leaders or be held up but needs some luck early in the race to gain a clear passage. SUMMARY: With the two possible leaders being drawn in stalls ten and eleven it could cause havoc if they try to get to the rails and lead so anything drawn inside of them could meet traffic problems which takes away a fair amount of any confidence I have in any horse. If the jockey George Baker can avoid the trouble form stall eight aboard LUJEANIE 8/1 and find a decent early position it could come home the strongest but stakes are recommended to be low because of any possible problems.Lujeanie 8/1 Unp

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