jueves, 3 de enero de 2013

Post Chavez scenarios and the underlying ethical question

Hugo Chavez has ruled Venezuela
for almost 15 years. During this period, in aggressive and authoritarian style,
he has attempted to convert the country into another Cuba. In order to consolidate
his power he has used a policy of handouts to the poorer segments of society, which
make up almost 2/3 of the total population. This policy has mostly been
financed by oil income, estimated at some $700 billion during these years. Even
this significant amount of money has been insufficient for his purposes and he
has had to resort to increasing debt, which now stands at some $150 billion,
mostly through loans from China, Japan, Russia and commercial papers issued by
from the state oil company PDVSA.

His attempt has essentially
failed. Today Venezuela is in deep financial, political and social disarray but
is far from the Cuban model. Civic resistance from at least half of the
population (the better educated half), has been too strong for Chavez to
overcome. At his departure Chavez will leave behind a country characterized by
strong political instability and deep economic and social problems, in dire
need to recover a sense of national purpose.

Regardless which scenario
prevails, the underlying characteristic of Venezuelan life for the next five
years will be a medium to high level of economic, social and political conflict.

I visualize three main Venezuelan
scenarios for the next five years: (1), A Cuban Regency; (2), A Swing to Democracy;
and (3), a Hybrid Transition.

(1)A Cuban
Regency

This would be
represented by the presidency of Nicolas Maduro, which would amount to a Cuban
regency in Venezuela. Maduro is ignorant, weak and politically incompetent and
cannot possibly lead the country without the strong guidance of Cuban advisers.
However, he could be elected because Chavez named him as his successor.

If elected, he
probably would not be able to survive politically for long, due to mounting
economic and social problems which will easily exceed his managerial
capabilities. If elected, there would be a high probability he might not be
able to end his normal mandate.

Although Maduro has the popular vote he lacks
support among the military and sufficient political support inside the party
and the state machinery.

(2)A Clear
Swing to Democracy

This could come
about through the electoral win of an opposition candidate. The most likely
candidate would be Henrique Capriles, who fought a great battle last year
against the all-powerful machinery of the state. Not having to run against
Chavez his chances would be significantly better this time around. Capriles has
been behaving in a manner designed to attract Chavez followers, using a rhetoric
that resembles Chavez’s populism. However, this strategy is a double edged
sword that could cost him as many followers as he might gain. Other opposition
leaders such as Antonio Ledezma, Diego Arria and Maria Corina Machado favor a
more radical break from all that chavismo represents but they do not have the
required political support to emerge as the candidate of the opposition. An
opposition government would start the country on its long and difficult journey
back to back to institutional democracy. The connection with Cuba and other
rogue states would be severed, major figures from Chavismo would be separated
from their jobs, some would be legally indicted for corruption, human rights
violations or drug trafficking.

(3)A Hybrid, gradual transition

This could come
about by the emergence of Diosdado Cabello as the presidential candidate of the
chavismo and winner in the election and his determination to bring the
opposition closer to his government, to allow for a gradual transition away
from chavismo to democracy. Cabello is no Cuban lover and is ideologically less
extreme than Chavez.

A similar effect
could be accomplished if Capriles, as winner of the presidency, decided on a
similar strategy of reconciliation. Such a scenario can be pragmatic and favor
stability but it would leave significant problems of political ethics
unresolved. The Chavez team is guilty of great crimes against the nation that
should not go unpunished.

There are multiple
nuances and variations on these three main scenarios that would influence the
rate at which the country turns away from chavismo and the level of redress the
Venezuelan nation will be willing to demand from the crimes committed by the
Chavez regime.

If this fundamental moral question of what to do about the Chavez regime crimes is not resolved satisfactorily, if the trash is simply swept under the rug, the nation will continue to muddle through in political and social
mediocrity for the foreseeable future.

7 comentarios:

There are fewer things that are more difficult to predict than a country's future course of political development after the departure of a dominating political figure. Such is the case with Venezuela after Hugo Chavez and, while I tend to think that the Cuban Regency scenario will be what we see in the short term, I cannot believe that it will last over the long haul and that will likely lead to something along the lines of your hybrid scenario Gustavo.

What will interest me most in the immediate aftermath of Chavez's death will be the international agreements on oil development, exports, and cross-border commerce in all manner of basic consumer goods that ensue from whatever type of regime replaces him. That is the arena where international pressure on any regime to change its way of doing things would probably begin and I am wondering whether the new Venezuelan leaders will have the foresight to try to avoid confrontation in these areas by keeping things running smoothly in foreign economic affairs.

Unlike Chavez, none of those waiting to replace him possess anything of the stature one would need to hold his own against foreign pressures, and especially on the Venezuelan economy. These kinds of developments can create a new political climate in a very short time and, if the new leadership does not have a delicate understanding of the need to avoid pressures from without, they will very quickly learn that those who have been intimidated within will become a more potent force to deal with than anything they have known in recent years. This implies the "hybrid" scenario in some way or another in my opinion. They will need it to keep the peace.

Somehow it seems to me that scenario number 3 will be the eventual option one way or another, though it is very much in doubt how long it may take before its outlines become clear.

.looks like the chavez clan is not in the picture?!.anybody else to continue with chavismo would have to be as despot as H. chavez!.hence something hybrid is more possible or probable!.a full swing to neoliberalism and democracy of two leading parties, PSUV and Opposition MUD, would be like a Epileptic Nation! It is highly improbable! Unless a Rightist Military Coup succeeds!.the reality is there is too much violence and polarity!...

My bet is on Cabello, he is ruthless, uncultured and will stop at nothing to achieve his aims. He strikes me as Chavez's Gomez. Maduro has already lost his credibility, first on 27 Nov when he was relegated to some corner of the official podium, then when he started crying in front of the nation while informing them of his boss condition. Major issue with Cabello are all these rumors about him managing the drug trade. The US may not see too kindly to it. He is also a coward, as he has shown during the April 2001 events. Apparently in the 1992 coup attempt he did not shine either.