Tuesday, August 7, 2012

NFL 2012: Expected Change in Regular Season Wins

This article will tie nicely into the last couple as here we will examine the recent history of team by team win changes year to year, and what we can possibly expect in 2012.As always, I have back tested this data for over a decade, but we will only focus on the last few years for ease of discussion, as just analyzing the last 5 seasons, which is four year over year comparisons, is enough to make the point.The main premise behind this analysis is each season we can expect 10+ teams to make a move of four wins – plus or minus – from the prior season.Using this data set, along with prior articles about potential teams that could improve or worsen this coming season, can be very handy when projecting the upcoming season.

WINS

2007

2008

YOY

2009

YOY

2010

YOY

2011

YOY

ARI

8

9

1

10

1

5

(5)

8

3

ATL

4

11

7

9

(2)

13

4

10

(3)

BAL

5

11

6

9

(2)

12

3

12

0

BUF

7

7

0

6

(1)

4

(2)

6

2

CAR

7

12

5

8

(4)

2

(6)

6

4

CHI

7

9

2

7

(2)

11

4

8

(3)

CIN

7

4

(3)

10

6

4

(6)

9

5

CLE

10

4

(6)

5

1

5

0

4

(1)

DAL

10

9

(1)

11

2

6

(5)

8

2

DEN

7

8

1

8

0

4

(4)

8

4

DET

7

0

(7)

2

2

6

4

10

4

GB

13

6

(7)

11

5

10

(1)

15

5

HOU

8

8

0

9

1

6

(3)

10

4

IND

13

12

(1)

14

2

10

(4)

2

(8)

JAC

11

5

(6)

7

2

8

1

5

(3)

KC

4

2

(2)

4

2

10

6

7

(3)

MIA

1

11

10

7

(4)

7

0

6

(1)

MIN

8

10

2

12

2

6

(6)

3

(3)

NE

16

11

(5)

10

(1)

14

4

13

(1)

NO

7

8

1

13

5

11

(2)

13

2

NYG

13

12

(1)

8

(4)

10

2

9

(1)

NYJ

4

9

5

9

0

11

2

8

(3)

OAK

4

5

1

5

0

8

3

8

0

PHI

8

9

1

11

2

10

(1)

8

(2)

PIT

10

12

2

9

(3)

12

3

12

0

SD

11

8

(3)

13

5

9

(4)

8

(1)

SF

5

7

2

8

1

6

(2)

13

7

SEA

10

4

(6)

5

1

7

2

7

0

STL

3

2

(1)

1

(1)

7

6

2

(5)

TB

9

9

0

3

(6)

10

7

4

(6)

TEN

10

13

3

8

(5)

6

(2)

9

3

WAS

9

8

(1)

4

(4)

6

2

5

(1)

DOWN 4+

6

6

8

3

UP 4+

5

4

7

7

TOTAL

11

10

15

10

The data set shows each team’s wins for the last 5 years, along with the grey columns which represent the year to year change in wins.We want to pay special attention to the grey columns for the purposes of this analysis, along with the bottom totals.As you can see, every season we have seen at least 10 teams shift their wins up or down by at least 4, with a range of 10-15.With that in mind, we can use this expectation, which also holds true looking further back in the past then just these five seasons, to project what the standings may look like come January 2013.

Here is 2011 wins by team, along with what a +/- 4 wins would put their win total at for 2012:

2011

YOY

+4 GMS

- 4 GMS

ARI

8

3

12

4

ATL

10

(3)

14

6

BAL

12

0

8

BUF

6

2

10

2

CAR

6

4

10

CHI

8

(3)

12

4

CIN

9

5

13

5

CLE

4

(1)

8

DAL

8

2

12

4

DEN

8

4

12

4

DET

10

4

14

6

GB

15

5

11

HOU

10

4

14

6

IND

2

(8)

6

JAC

5

(3)

9

1

KC

7

(3)

11

3

MIA

6

(1)

10

2

MIN

3

(3)

7

NE

13

(1)

9

NO

13

2

9

NYG

9

(1)

13

5

NYJ

8

(3)

12

4

OAK

8

0

12

4

PHI

8

(2)

12

4

PIT

12

0

8

SD

8

(1)

12

4

SF

13

7

9

SEA

7

0

11

3

STL

2

(5)

6

TB

4

(6)

8

TEN

9

3

13

5

WAS

5

(1)

9

DOWN 4+

3

26

25

UP 4+

7

TOTAL

10

To further reduce the number of teams that could potentially have an impact on their win totals from 2011, I have removed any team that the projection showed would be unrealistic – such as any number 16 or higher, and any number 1 or less.Even though some of these potential outcomes look very unrealistic, such as DET winning 14+ or KC winning 3 or less, they are kept as a potential outcome in this first cut as each and every season there are teams that perform much greater or worse than we expect.However, we can make a second cut after a little examination of schedules, offseason moves to the roster, coaching changes, and past performance – which leaves us with this:

2011

YOY

+4 GMS

- 4 GMS

ARI

8

3

4

ATL

10

(3)

6

BAL

12

0

8

BUF

6

2

10

CAR

6

4

10*

CHI

8

(3)

12

CIN

9

5

5

CLE

4

(1)

8

DAL

8

2

12

DEN

8

4

12

DET

10

4

6*

GB

15

5

11*

HOU

10

4

14*

6

IND

2

(8)

6

JAC

5

(3)

1

KC

7

(3)

11

MIA

6

(1)

10

2

MIN

3

(3)

7

NE

13

(1)

9

NO

13

2

9

NYG

9

(1)

13

5*

NYJ

8

(3)

12

OAK

8

0

4*

PHI

8

(2)

12*

PIT

12

0

8

SD

8

(1)

12

SF

13

7

9*

SEA

7

0

3

STL

2

(5)

6*

TB

4

(6)

8

TEN

9

3

5

WAS

5

(1)

9

DOWN 4+

3

18

17

UP 4+

7

TOTAL

10

Following that cut we are left with 35 potential outcomes – 18 risers, 17 decliners.To put that cut into perspective, last season after that cut I was left with 41 outcomes, 6 more than this year.And of the 10 moves we saw last year (see total from above), all 10 of them were within the 41 possible outcomes I had indentified.So, we can feel relatively comfortable that contained in the 35 outcomes I have identified this season are the 10+ movers we would expect to see in 2012.

Now, for purposes of this article, and disregarding the strict use of any other metrics we have discussed up to this point (I will publish an article incorporating all metrics and a calibrated standings projection before the season starts), let’s examine the 35 potential outcomes we have isolated, and attempt to pick out some teams that will slide +/- 4 wins.I like to complete each analysis “separately”, using some of the prior information I posted, but for example with this specific analysis, just look at the teams and the possible outcomes and select those I think will occur “isolated” – as one piece of the jigsaw puzzle – and at the end of the offseason, and after I have completed all my analyses, come up with one final projected standings where I use each piece of information together.

Teams that will RISE by at least 4 wins:

Carolina Panthers (6-10 LY, 10-6 or better in 2012): yes, they play in possibly the toughest, deepest division in football.But it’s hard not to like CAR this season, with QB Cam Newton entering his second season under center, and likely improvement defensively driven by more healthy games played by starters.Also as support, a few of the leading indicators I posted about – namely yards per play and first downs per game – gives further support that so long as CAR at least performs to the level they did offensively last season (which figures to be the case with a 2nd year QB that set multiple rookie passing records), with a modest improvement on defense a double digit win season should be attainable.And they will be one of the new teams in the 2012 playoffs that missed last year – as a reminder, we have seen at least 5 new teams make the playoffs who missed the playoffs the prior season 16 STRAIGHT SEASONS!That is a big time trend to keep in mind when attempting to project what the final standings could look like in 2012 – along with using that information for this kind of analysis where you know that #, and you know it takes about 10+ wins to make playoffs.

Houston Texans (10-6 LY, 14-2 or better in 2012): looks crazy, I agree.HOU is going to go at least 14-2 in 2012?Let’s start by saying two things: one, we have seen one team go 14-2 or better in 4 of the last 5 seasons; two, I have HOU rated as the #1 team in my power ratings currently.HOU rated #1, really?Yes, and it’s frankly not close.Last season, prior to QB Matt Schaub’s injury, HOU was playing the best football according to my numbers of any team since I started tracking stats for my model 7 seasons ago.What’s more, it was posting per game ratings that were significantly higher than any team during those 7 years – their per game rating was approximately 10% better than the next best team.And, they still wound up #1 in my ratings even following the loss of Schaub for the last 6 games, RB Arian Foster missing 3 games, WR Andre Johnson missing 9 games, and numerous injuries defensively.They were that good last season, and with a schedule that I have rated the easiest in the NFL, using both 2011 and 2012 numbers, the ingredients are all in place for a phenomenal season barring more devastating injuries similar to last season.

Philadelphia Eagles (8-8 LY, 12-4 or better in 2012): the Birds lacked results last season in a major way, especially when considering the expectations.However, when actually examining their statistical performance, it told a different story – a story of one of the better teams in the NFL.I had them #5 in performance, sandwiched between BAL & SF – a pair of teams that won 25 games last season.What’s more, they accomplished that rating playing the #16 SOS!To put that in perspective, here are the top 4 teams in my 2011 performance ratings, along with their SOS: HOU 32, NO 31, PIT 29, BAL 28 – and then PHI checked in @ 16.That really shows how well they actually played, and how big the impact of an unfavorable turnover margin can have on a team’s record.Last year PHI was -14 in TOM, 3rd worst in the NFL.See my prior TOM analysis articles from last month for more in depth analysis, but for purposes of this article, let me just state that will revert at least some, which will have PHI among the best teams in the NFL come the final standings.And they will be the second new team in the 2012 playoffs that missed in 2011.

St. Louis Rams (2-14 LY, 6-10 or better in 2012): cannot stress enough how much I like what the Rams did this offseason – a year after I was perhaps driving the bandwagon that they would have a big fall-off from the moderately successful 2010 campaign where they went 7-9 and lost the final week @ SEA in a game they had a shot at winning the division.The hiring of Jeff Fisher, who for my money is one of the best NFL coaches in the game, will pay immediate dividends, as will the removal of OC Josh McDaniels who has now turned two franchises into a disaster after short stints.QB Sam Bradford is the real deal, he is a very good QB who will play better in 2012 – he needs some assistance from his OL as that was his big problem last season – getting beat to a pulp week after week leading to injuries and poor performance (STL allowed a league high 3.44 sacks per game in 2011).STL is not a threat to SF to win the NFC West, and likely isn’t a playoff team in a deep and still improving NFC, but they will turn the corner in 2012 and lay a nice foundation for perhaps bigger things in the next 3-4 years.

Teams that will DECLINE by at least 4 wins:

Green Bay Packers (15-1 LY, 11-5 or worse in 2012): GB put together one of the best regular season’s in the history of the NFL last year, only losing once – but it all was for not as they lost their opening playoff game, at home, to the eventual Super Bowl Champion NYG.What is in store for an encore in 2012?Not that it’s going out on a limb, but a drop from 15 wins will occur – it’s just a matter of how many wins will they drop?Over the last 5 seasons, excluding NE from 2010 to 2011, the team that won the most games in a season dropped by at least 4 games in the following season: 2007 NE 16 to 11 in 2008, 2008 TEN 13 to 8 in 2009, 2009 IND 14 to 10 in 2010.In addition, GB has quite a few indicators pointing towards a regression: points scored standard deviation and both turnover margin analyses.What will help GB is they do play the AFC South which should mean 3-1 there (at worst), and the NFC West which should be at worst 2-2.If that occurred, they would need a 7-1 record in their remaining games (6 divisional games, @ NYG, vs. NO) to bust through 11 wins – I do not see it happening this year.Despite going 15-1 last year, GB checked in #9 in my performance ratings, which was their lowest mark since 2008, and when factoring in SOS easily their worst performance in the last 3 seasons.That really shows, like we continue to mention and have already mentioned in this article related to PHI, how big an impact TOM can have on a team’s record – last year they were #2 in the NFL at +24, only trailing last season’s biggest surprise team SF who was an amazing +28.As the division continues improving, their TOM due to correct, and a tougher schedule likely to be played, GB will dip down and will not have home field advantage in the NFC playoffs this season.

Oakland Raiders (8-8 LY, 4-12 or worse in 2012): this projection isn’t so much an indication that I think OAK’s talent and overall team has dropped off precipitously, it’s more a function of their division, along with the schedule they will be facing in 2012.First, talking about the AFC West, it’s a division that has been and continues improving over the last 2-3 years, with no bad teams, but really no elite teams either.With SD hungry after failing to win double digit games in 3 of the last 4 seasons, especially considering HC Norv Turner’s job is clearly on the line; DEN adding HOF QB Peyton Manning to its roster, and after winning the division last year, winning a playoff game and advancing to the AFC Divisional Round led by a QB that ranked near the bottom of the NFL in every major passing statistic, figures to improve with one of the best to ever play the game calling the gameday shots; and KC, who was hit by the injury bug last season, will get a lot of their key pieces back healthy, and a new HC on the sidelines – it’s looking tough for OAK.Carson Palmer has not played well so far, Run DMC is constantly banged up, and they will face a schedule that includes the NFC South (likely best division in football) and AFC North (likely best division in AFC).It all adds up to a drop off in wins for OAK, who figures to be near the top of the 2013 NFL Draft come next spring.

NY Giants (9-7 LY, 5-11 or worse in 2012): the defending champs on a list of team’s that will see the biggest drop off in wins from last season?Yes.First off, their division is extremely tough with PHI a legitimate Super Bowl contender, DAL a legitimate contender for the NFC east crown, and WAS a rapidly improving squad who just added Heisman Trophy winning QB RG3 – and we saw how well the last Heisman Trophy winning QB played in his opening season just last year.On top of all that, there is the SOS which I have ranked #1 using both 2011 & 2012 figures, and a TOM that will regress backwards (unfavorable) in 2012.It all adds up to a disappointing year for the Giants – yes this is going out on a limb – but we see this kind of thing happen all the time – maybe not to defending champs, but to good teams – and let’s not forget the Giants were very close to missing the playoffs last year, so while the run was great, timely, and the SB trophy well earned, their true statistical performance last season (middle of the pack) that was aided by a favorable TOM will catch up to them this season.

Detroit Lions (10-6 LY, 6-10 or worse in 2012): what a great run 2011 was for the Lions, and their fans.But what does 2012 have in store? Will they be able to build off last season’s success, or fall back into mediocrity, which seems to be their high point more often than not?DET played well last season, ranking #11 in my performance stats, along with facing the #12 blended SOS (blended means I use a weighting system for opponents record and opponents performance ratings according to my system) which solidly puts them among the top 10 teams in the NFL.There are also no indicators either way suggesting an improvement or worsening of their record from last year.This is just a hunch, and impacted by the fact they will now be more of the hunted vs. the hunter this season (they will not be taken lightly by anyone coming off a playoff appearance), the fact CHI will have a healthy Jay Cutler and Matt Forte for a full season, and an oddly laid out schedule that will see them play 4 sets of back to back road games during the season.We know there will be swings in record year to year, I have tested this premise back and we will see about 10 teams shift 4 wins this coming season, and I add DET into the mix currently.

San Francisco Forty Niners (13-3 LY, 9-7 or worse in 2012): SF was probably the best story of the 2012 season, advancing all the way to the NFC Championship game they narrowly lost at home to the eventual champ Giants.But taking a closer examination as to why they enjoyed the success they did raises numerous red flags heading into this season, and should be cause for concern for any SF fan.Right off the bat, the number that stands out above all else is +28 – that was their TOM last season, and incredible number that by itself was worth nearly 3 wins (see TOM analysis article for explanation as to how I arrive at that 3 wins amount).It’s hard to imagine that number staying anywhere near where it was – and all my analysis point to a big time correction this year.Second, according to my blended numbers, SF played the 3rd easiest 2011 schedule – this year that will be upgraded as SF plays the AFC East, NFC North, and both teams they faced in the playoffs last season, NYG & @ NO.Big time upgrade there in competition, and miles to travel.Also somewhat related to that comment, the NFC West is improving – ARI closed last season winning 7 of their last 9, SEA signed QB Matt Flynn in the offseason which should be an upgrade over the committee they used last year, and STL (as mentioned and discussed above) definitely upgraded their team in the offseason – which will lend to more competition in divisional games vs. what they enjoyed last year.Add it all up and SF is still the class of the NFC West, and I think is about as safe a wager as you could have as far as projecting division winners in 2012, but they will not be the #2 seed in the NFC, nor will they advance to the NFC Championship game once again.

There are some of my initial thoughts on potential teams that could see a swing in wins this coming season.As a reminder I tried to isolate this analysis as much as possible – I didn’t reference every other article I have written so far, I more did this by memory of those past articles, and based on the eye test – judging if wins from last year truly matched up with the talent on the team.There is no way I will get all 9 of these clubs correct – last season I projected 9 would move the +/- 4 games and here are those results:

Teams that would RISE: DEN (correct +4), HOU (correct +4), MIN (incorrect as they dropped 3, I overestimated how well McNabb would play), SD (incorrect as they dropped 1)

Teams that would DROP: STL (correct -5), TB (correct -6), ATL (incorrect by only 1 game as they dropped 3), CHI (incorrect by only 1 game as they dropped 3), KC(incorrect by only 1 game as they dropped 3)

So last season I had the same breakout that I am using this season, with 4 projected risers and 5 projected decliners.I was correct on 4 of the 9 predictions, and 7 of the 9 were either correct or within one game of being correct.Only missed badly on two (both teams I projected to rise), my overestimation about how well McNabb would play in MIN, and I was expecting a big year from SD but missed on that one as well.Still, not too bad, and a valuable tool for helping handicap and project how the 2012 season may play out.In this analysis the team’s I predict or you predict may look crazy, but that is almost the point – we will be surprised at the end of the season by various teams – who had SF winning 13 before last season?And if you did predict that, you definitely caught a ton of flack for it!But the ones that look the craziest are often that ones that come home – keep that in mind when you are building your own version of this analysis.

Be back either late this week or early next week with some more football analysis, as I am close to finishing the next dozen college football team capsules, and have a few more NFL metrics I want to discuss on the blog before doing one final summary article prior to the start of the season.

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