Okun*s Law, Productivity Innovations, and Conundrums in Business

The Future of the Airline Industry:
Viewing the Future via the Past
Robert J. Gordon, Northwestern and NBER
Conference on the Economics of the Airline Industry
Brookings Institution, Washington, D. C., May 11, 2012
The Best Clue to the Future
is the Past.

To project out into the future 20 years, it
helps to look back in 20-year chunks (U. S.
oriented chronology)
– 1952 to 1972

Technology, the transition to jets under a regulated
regime
– 1972 to 1992

Deregulation and the first round of mergers
– 1992 to 2012

Alliances, further mergers, the squeeze on union
rents, and multiple bankruptcies
The Future for the U. S.
Industry


The U. S. – owned legacy network carriers have hit a wall
– Income elasticity of air travel has fallen to 1.0
– Price elasticity translates higher oil prices into lower
traffic
– No improvement in aircraft technology except for fuel
efficiency
– Main effects of the electronic revolution have already
occurred
This contrasts with the traditional regime in which
innovations drove down real fares which increased traffic
growth and yielded scale economies
The World ex-US




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The income elasticity is higher but still falling
Technology involves not only fuel efficiency but
also longer range
Future favors the Asian carriers
European legacy carriers: squeezed by super
LCCs in Europe, Mideast carriers long-haul,
fuel emissions charges, and airport constraints
Geography protects North American carriers
from Emirates (Etihad, Qatar)
US: Nominal Airline Revenue as a
Percent of Nominal GDP
US: RPM Divided by Real GDP
US: Nominal and Real Yield
The U. S. Transition from a
Dynamic to a Stagnant
Industry



Nominal revenue / nominal GDP at a
plateau since 1978
RPMs / real GDP at a plateau since
1988
Annual relative price decline in logs:
1952-72 = -2.4%
 1972-92 = -1.2%
 1992-2011 = -0.1%

From a Luxury Good to
an Everyday Good


Regression of RPMs on real GDP and
relative price (all in changes)
Income elasticity
1949-72 = 2.65
 1972-90 = 1.73
 1990-2011 = 1.05


Price elasticity = -0.58

Compared to -0.56 in Berry-Jia AEJ Micro
2010, data for 2006, average of leisure and
business travel demand
To Make Matters Worse,
Real GDP Growth Is
Slowing Down




U. S. growth in real per-capita GDP 1929-2007 = 2.2
% per year
In 2007 I wrote a paper forecasting a slowdown to
1.4 % per year 2007-27
As of 2012:Q1 we are now 8.1 percent below that
historically unprecedented slow growth path.
And GDP growth is slowing relative to GDP per
capita, due to merciless hounding and deportation of
illegal immigrants
The Domestic Industry Has
Reached Technological
Stasis





1952-72, the technological revolution
In 1952 NYC-LAX required a connection at
MDW or DAL. 12 hours westbound
1953, nonstop DC-7s, the “AA Mercury”
1959, nonstop 707s. 707 delivered 20x net
revenue compared to the DC-7 for about 3x the
purchase price. A technological revolution.
Conversion to short-haul jets complete by 1971
(727, 72S, 737-200, DC-9-20/30/50)
A Reminder About
Technological Stasis

DL still flies the DC-9-50, manufactured in the mid
1970s and thus roughly 35+ years old.
– My pilot friend’s report: there are 21 D95’s left.
– Passengers on the D95 don’t know that they are not on a
MD-90. Now-retired D93 (1968) same.
– Fuel economy improvement from D95 to 73G (current
generation) is 15 percent.


Conclusion: consumer welfare has not improved
since 1968 for narrowbodies.
RJs? Good: replace props, new nonstop routes, no
center seats. Bad: waiting for that roll-aboard.
In an All-jet world, How the
Industry Changed 1972-92

Deregulation: Pricing
– Pricing rationalized. Previously long-haul overcapacity (piano bars)
with paucity of short-haul frequency and service

Deregulation: Network Effects
– Mythology that point-to-point nonstop service was replaced by
connections
– Few nonstop routes between major cities were discontinued. 422 of
top 500 markets had nonstop service in both 1978 and 1989
– All residents of new hub cities benefitted from proliferation of new
nonstops
– Interline connections fell by a factor of 10, from 40 percent to 4 percent

FF Benefits: Made possible by deregulation plus advances in
computers
The Role of Unions

Legacy labor costs make it inevitable that
legacy firms must shrink
Low-cost competitors (Toyota vs. GM), (Wal-Mart vs.
Sears) grow faster, thus have younger employees.
 Older firms have more unions, higher wages, lower
productivity, as well as legacy pension and retiree
medical care costs.


The Big-3 auto recovery and the legacy airlines
UAW agreed to two-tier wage systems
 Outsourcing to RJs allows airlines a two-tier system
 Consolidation to “Big Three” network legacies accelerates
the decline of unions (would any president allow strike?)

Union Rents and Their
Consequences

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During most of the postwar era there has been a long
line of applicants desiring to become airline pilots
The applicants are willing to work for far less than the
incumbent flight crews
Thus the incumbents earn a rent that distorts markets
Airline strikes were frequent before 1990
– Disruption, mutual aid pacts
– Helped to cause liquidation of EA under Borman
– Actions in last decade rule out a strike as an option
for the major network carriers
Why Pilot Union Rents are
Different

In a competitive labor market salaries would
have been far different
Long-hauls easy, fewer duties, lower pay
 Short-hauls more work, more duties, higher pay



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Bankruptcy laws allowed airlines to escape
union contracts, but couldn’t save EA, PA, TW
High point of union arrogance the UA ESOP
1994-2000 when Rick Dubinsky promised to
“wring the neck of the golden goose”.
The golden goose turned to a lead weight
The Biggest Changes
during 1992-2012?


Aircraft downsized from domestic widebodies. New
outsourcing to RJs owned by other non-union suppliers
Electronics and the web
– Airline web sites bring purchase in-house and reduce GDS
fees
– Increased ease of comparing fares put further downward
pressure on legacy fares
– Electronics
 Lobby e-kiosks eliminate most waiting in line (except for
TSA)
 Lots of gate screen information for standby passengers
The Next 20 Years: the U.S.



Continued evolution of consumer-friendly web apps. Eventually
weather and maintenance-related delays may lead carriers to
implement automatic rebookings.
 A basic impediment to consumer-friendly proactive
rebookings: high fees to change tickets for most
passengers
Three legacy carriers (AA+US, DL, UA) will continue trying to
beat down their legacy costs
 Qualifications: WN’s costs are rising faster than legacies
as WN becomes a quasi-legacy. Competition from lowcost Air Tran is eliminated by merger
 Continued price competition from B6, Allegiant, Spirit
Safe prediction: the relative price of air travel will increase, no
longer decreasing. Cozy and lazy trio.
The Next 20 Years: Aircraft
Size


Artificial gaps now due to union scope clauses
 Classic example AA: few planes between 50
and 140 seats
The next 20 years will even this out
 Liberalized scope clauses
 Legacies buying 90-120 seat planes to be flown
by union pilots at reduced wages
 Scheduling efficiency by having a continuum of
aircraft sizes
World Ex US: Nominal Revenue
as a Percent of Nominal GDP
World Ex US: RPM Divided by
Real GDP
World Ex US: Nominal and Real
Yield
Asia is the Future
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Companies are newer, fewer legacy costs
Costs are lower because of dense routes, use of wide-bodies
on relatively short routes
In some countries airline passengers per year per member of
the population are still 1/10 of U. S. and Western Europe
implying lots of potential for future growth
China’s protection of its Big 3 airlines and suppression of
LCC’s
How will Asian and U. S. airlines share future growth in
Transpacific traffic?
When will the U. S. finally eliminate tedious visa delays and
procedures for Asian tourists?
Most Threatened Now: EU
Legacy Network Airlines

Reasons why the big European legacy firms
are in big trouble. Will they eventually
disappear? (BA, AF/KL, LH, AZ, IB, SK)
The power of unions, the social welfare state, and the
difficulty of voiding union contracts through bankruptcy
 The competition of Ryanair, Easyjet, and the new lowcost carriers on their money-losing intra-Europe routes
 Traditional markets Europe-Asia are becoming
dominated by the big three Middle East carriers (EK,
EY, QR).
 But don’t bet on EK quite yet; it may finally have
ordered too many planes. DXB-RNO in a 380?

Reasons U. S. Legacy Airlines
Face a Smaller Threat



The brutal battles of bankruptcy are largely over, whereas
European carriers have barely begun facing legacy union costs
Geography makes the Middle East carriers largely irrelevant
– While DXB is a perfect connection spot for Europe to India
and Australia, it is irrelevant for US-Europe, and US-Asia
(BOS-PEK +3000 miles), and US-Australia (JFK-SYD +4000
miles).
 Exception: India (SFO-BLR +400 miles)
 May wipe out not only future nonstops US-India but aloso
future existence of India-based carriers
US LCCs (WN, B6) are more mature than Ryanair and EasyJet.
Costs of WN and B6 are inexorably creeping up relative to the
network legacies.
How Will EU Legacies Adjust?


LH has just announced cancellation of 7 long-haul routes to
secondary Asian destinations
 Other LH problems – high taxes, EU emissions trading,
night flying ban at FRA. It claims $900 million per year
 BA faces permanent constraint of two runways at LHR
Incentive to move aircraft to NA and SA routes
– But with revenue sharing under JV’s, benefits would be shared with U.
S. alliance partners

How will the EU legacies survive?
– Wages have to fall, productivity has to rise
– A future of strikes, slowdowns?
– Will governments let one of them fail?

Conclusion: Stasis inside the U. S., Drama Outside