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FOLLOWING MONEY IN 2016 PRESIDENTIAL POLITICS

Sunday, August 7, 2016

FLIP-FLOP: New Arizona Poll Puts Trump Back On Top, Barely (POLL POSITION, OFF TO THE RACES)

Out this morning is a new Arizona poll giving GOP Presidential nominee Donald Trump a 2-point lead over Hillary Clinton. The CBS News/You Gov poll gives Trump a 44%-42% over the Democratic nominee, with Gary Johnson (Libertarian) and Jill Stein (Green) pulling 5% and 2%, respectively.

The margin of error for the poll of 1095 likely voters is +/- 4.8%, and it flips the if-the-election-were-held-today forecast back into Trump's favor. Earlier in the week, FiveThirtyEight.com said that Clinton had a better chance of winning Arizona's 11 electoral votes if the election were held now. (See this article for a fuller explanation of the different forecast models. (Trump would have a 52.2% chance of winning if the election were held today.)

Perhaps the most surprising responses in the newly-released poll (see below for all of the questions

and cross-tabs) is that only 10% of the respondents indicated that they "might still change" their choice. And, of those, 80% of the non-Trump choosers said they would not ever consider him while 85% of the non-Clinton choosers would not consider her.

It would appear that that leaves just a little room for the 3rd party candidates to grow their followings. However, in small print, it indicates that YouGov did not give respondents options other than Clinton and Trump UNLESS they asked for them; this would obviously result in fewer choices for Johnson, Stein, et al than when voters will actually see those choices on their ballots in November.