Angela Burns has criticised the Welsh Government over falling university applications

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Shadow education minister Angela Burns has accused the Welsh Government of “not doing the maths” after latest figures revealed an 8% drop in university applications.

The Welsh Government is banking on the number of students coming into Wales from England outweighing those going in the opposite direction, to contain the cost of its new tuition fee policy.

Many of Wales’ 10-campus based institutions remain open for business through the “clearing” process, but a sharp fall in the number of students being accepted by Welsh universities will be cause for concern.

In the latest snapshot of 2012 trends, there were 21,845 successful applications from UK and overseas students to universities in Wales – down from 23,846 in 2011.

The 8.4% drop is the worst of any home nation, with numbers in England down by 7.6% at the weekend.

Elsewhere in the UK, applications to universities in Scotland and Northern Ireland are marginally up on the same point last year.

Ms Burns, Tory AM for Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire, said Education Minister Leighton Andrews had “pinned his hopes” on significant numbers of English learners choosing to study in Wales.

She added: “If the greatest proportion of the decline in applications to Welsh universities is from full-fee paying English students, this makes it very difficult for the Welsh Government to balance the books.

“Last year, the drop in English-domiciled students studying in Wales was almost three times the drop in Welsh-domiciled students applying to study in England, resulting in a double blow to the affordability of Labour’s tuition fees policy.

“This is what happens when you announce populist and rushed policies in advance of an election without doing the maths or working out how it would work in practice.”

The cost of a university education will treble next month, but students ordinarily resident in Wales will continue to pay around £3,400-a-year for their studies under plans drawn in the Senedd.

The Welsh Government has calculated that it will take around 24,000 English learners studying in Wales to mitigate money spent on 16,000 Welsh undergraduates going the other way.

The controversial fee policy – estimated to cost in the region of £1bn over the life of the Assembly – will protect students ordinarily resident in Wales wherever in the UK they choose to study.

According to Ucas, 40,724 people were still waiting on decisions at the weekend, down from 40,885 at the same point last year.

Overall, some 389,004 people who were holding offers had been accepted by universities after meeting the entry requirements.

A further 35,501 students had gained places through clearing – the process that matches students who are not holding offers, or who have missed their required grades, to vacant courses.

In total, 157,480 people were still eligible for clearing, a fall from 179,891 applicants who could enter the process in 2011.

Universities across Wales were last night still advertising vacancies for September admission, though places were being snapped up fast.

The shutters were down at Cardiff University – the nation’s one prestigious Russell Group institution – but Cardiff Metropolitan, Glamorgan, Swansea and Aberystwyth universities were among those open for business.

Ucas applications to universities in Wales were down across the board prior to the publication of A-level results, with Cardiff Met (-16.1%) and Aberystwyth (-13.7%) experiencing the biggest falls.

But they were not alone, with the University of Liverpool (-11.2%), Manchester Metropolitan (-15.3%) and Nottingham Trent (-17%) all down on last year.

A spokesman for the Welsh Government said: “In Wales we are sticking up for our students. Welsh students won’t pay higher fees wherever they study.

“The Welsh Government remains committed to preserving the principle that the state will subsidise higher education and that’s why we’ve put in place what we believe is the most equitable student finance system we’ve ever created which is fully costed and deliverable.”