Santorum still 7 points up on Romney in Ohio

Rick Santorum is faltering a bit in polls across the country, but he holds the same 7-point advantage over Mitt Romney among Ohio Republicans that he did about two weeks ago.

Darrel Rowland, The Columbus Dispatch

Rick Santorum is faltering a bit in polls across the country, but he holds the same 7-point advantage over Mitt Romney among Ohio Republicans that he did about two weeks ago.

However, the race for the Buckeye State next Tuesday almost certainly will be stirred by the outcome of today’s Michigan primary, said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

“Obviously, if Santorum wins in Michigan, that will make him a much-stronger candidate here and help his margin,” Brown said. “On the other hand, if Romney pulls out Michigan … it would give him some impetus to come in here.”

Santorum’s poll lead is identical to that in Quinnipiac’s poll released on Feb.?15: 36 percent to 29?percent. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is third with 17 percent, and U.S. Rep. Ron Paul of Texas has 11 percent of likely Republican primary voters.

More than half of Ohio Republicans say their mind is made up, but 45 percent indicated they could change their mind. However, just 40?percent of Santorum supporters say they might switch, compared with 49 percent of Romney’s.

Santorum’s Ohio lead continues to be fueled by conservatives, among whom Romney is viewed unfavorably by 35 percent, Santorum by only 10 percent. Tea party members back Santorum over the former Massachusetts governor 49 percent to 19?percent. And Santorum leads among self-identified white born-again evangelicals by 15 points, 44 percent to 29?percent.

“It is certainly true that there’s a significant part of the Republican primary electorate that is uncomfortable with Mitt Romney,” Brown said.

But Romney dominates the electability issue. When GOP voters are asked which candidate would be the strongest against President Barack Obama in the general election, 40 percent point to Romney, and 25 percent to Santorum.

“If Romney’s able to win in Michigan, it buttresses his argument of inevitability, given that he was so far behind,” Brown said.

Quinnipiac’s polling institute conducted the telephone survey — land line and cellphone — of 847 likely GOP primary voters from Thursday through Sunday. The poll has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

The full poll results are available through a link at www.quinnipiac.edu.