Cocoa finds end user demand on cheap prices

General Comments: Futures closed higher on what was called speculative short covering. There were also reports of end user demand as prices have gotten very cheap lately. Malaysia and Indonesia crops appear to be in good condition and weather is called favorable. Overall weather patterns in West Africa production areas are good for harvest progress and for the mid crop and next crop. Demand is reported weaker from the US and Europe, in part due to current economics and in part due to changes forced by the World Bank that encouraged forward marketing of the crops. Traders are starting to look ahead and past the midcrop harvest and note that the market could move to a production déficit next year. Ivory Coast growing conditions are reported good right now as the Harmattan winds are subsiding without causing any real damage to crops. Some showers have been reported as well. The better weather is needed as it was too dry last year.

Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in West Africa, but some showers are expected in coastal areas. Temperatures will average above normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see episodes of scattered showers, but Malaysia will be drier this weekend. Temperatures should average near normal. Brazil will get scattered showers and warm temperatures. ICE certified stocks are near unchanged today at 3.814 million bags.

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2155, 2145, and 2115 March, with resistance at 2210, 2230, and 2250 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1410, 1405, and 1380 March, with resistance at 1445, 1455, and 1465 March.

COTTON

General Comments: Futures were mixed. Trends remain up as traders contemplate less planted area next year and strong export sales. Export sales have been strong for the last month to six weeks, and strong sales are expected to continue after another failed Chinese government auction held over the weekend. However, the export sales report was not bullish yesterday as the demand was down from previous reports. The report showed that China had cancelled some of its recent purchases. The current low prices are bringing into question what farmers in Texas and the Delta and Southeast will plant this year. Some are wondering if planted area might be lower this year here in the US due to weak prices against competing crops. The area lost would go mostly to Corn and Soybeans. Current weather featured some precipitation in Delta and Southeast areas, but western Texas was mostly dry. Delta and Southeast areas will turn dry starting today. Ideas are that the market can continue to work higher overall.

Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast will see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Texas will get dry weather. Temperatures will average much above normal. The USDA spot price is now 77.43 ct/lb. ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.127 million bales, from 0.127 million yesterday.

Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 9100 March. Support is at 82.10, 81.40, and 80.20 March, with resistance of 84.00, 85.25, and 87.00 March.

About the Author

Jack Scovilleis a veteran futures market analyst specializing in grains, softs, rice, oilseeds, and tropical products such as coffee and sugar. His industry contacts in South America, Europe, Asia, and North America provide him with a unique and comprehensive view of these markets. Jack began working in the futures industry over 30 years ago and spent 10 years working on the floor of the Chicago Board of Trade in various roles, starting with The PRICE Futures Group since it was established in 1988. Jack writes daily commentaries - Morning Grains and Softs, in both English and Spanish and is regularly quoted around the world by news & wire services including Dow Jones, AP, Bloomberg, and Reuters. You can contact Jack by phone at (312) 264-4322 or by email at jscoville@pricegroup.com. Learn even more on our website at www.pricegroup.com.

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