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I see intermarket analysis (the idea that other markets can be predictors of the stock market) mostly as a big waste of time. Often, what correlates today won’t correlate a year from now, or the correlation may even reverse. The best way to analyze and forecast stock price trends is to analyze stock prices themselves. That’s the basis of technical analysis (TA). I spend about half my time on TA in my analytical work for The Wall Street Examiner Pro Trader Market Updates (http://wallstreetexaminer.com/category/professional-edition-3/todays-markets-professional-edition/).

But there is an exception to the rule that intermarket analysis is useless….and it’s the U.S. Treasury market.

If you know what to look for, Treasuries-in particular, the 4-week T-Bill-can tell you something very important about liquidity and which direction the money is flowing. That, in turn, will ultimately tell you where the stock market is headed.

The Trump/Republican tax proposal sketch is out. 360061522-Republican-Tax-Plan While the hope is that lowering marginal tax rates will stimulate the economy (creating more jobs and tax revenue for Uncle Sam),

This is the new model of nationalization: central banks control the valuation of private-sector assets without actually having to own them lock, stock and barrel.As you no doubt know, central banks don’t actually print money and toss it out of hel…

Listening to CNBC and Bloomberg TV, you might have gotten the impression that Hurricanes Harvery and Irma created such extensive damage (they did) that there would be labor shortages and a big rise in real wages.

Tag Archive for Reason

National PostHow Jamie Dimon let JPMorgan rack up US$2-billion in lossesNational PostJPMorgan Chase & Co. could have spotted trouble at its chief investment office long before traders there racked up at least US$2-billion in losses. One reason it d…

USA TODAYAfter Facebook's Flop, Nasdaq Gets Some Love From Kraft FoodsForbesWith Kraft Foods' announcement that it will move its stock listing from NYSE to Nasdaq, [1] the latter finally has reason to cheer after its mishandling of Facebook&#39…

Business InsiderFacebook User Growth Is Sharply Falling Off – But Upside Has Never Been HigherBusiness InsiderEven after a severe correction following its IPO, Facebook still trades at a generous revenue multliple due to promises of growth. But the r…

ValueWalkFacebook (FB) IPO Disaster A Reason To Revisit Sarbanes-Oxley?ValueWalkBy Nicholas Maithya The largest IPO in history has also turned out to be one of the biggest disappointments. Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB), the world's greatest social netwo…

Nassim Taleb, author of “The Black Swan,” said he favors investing in Europe over the U.S. even with the possible breakup of the single European currency in part because of the euro area’s superior deficit situation. Europe’s lack of a centralized government is another reason it’s preferable to invest in the region, said Taleb… A…

LifeHealthProJPMorgan's trading loss proves Volcker rule won't workEuromoney MagazineFor this reason, your comment may not be live immediately, or may not be published. by Helen Avery JPMorgan's several-billion-dollar trading loss has certa…

Telegraph.co.ukJPMorgan: Another Reason CDS Should Be Regulated As InsuranceSeeking AlphaJPMorgan's (JPM) troubled trade in its London-based CIO unit is well known. What is not properly understood, and particularly by regulators, is the source of t…

The fact that this writer is still relying on the Case Chiller shows that he’s a bit clueless, but I found it interesting that prices were back to 1955, 1986 and 1895 levels in real terms. That seems like an argument to be bullish on house prices, not bearish. By Jack Hough When will U.S.…

Most people seem to have a hard time understanding why the markets do what they do.

The only reason I don’t is that I’ve been trading professionally for 30 years.

Not that I “got it” when I started out. I didn’t. I had to learn. And I learned much of what I know the hard way. I made a lot of mistakes. I studied my mistakes, I still do, just as much as I study what moves markets and what I get right.

I’m always learning. That’s because everything changes. You have to always take in new data, mesh it with recent data, layer it over the past, and not ever think you know for sure what’s going to happen.

So, how do you do it? How do you understand what’s going on with different markets?

Here’s how I do it (and get it right a lot)…

It’s First and Foremost About the “Big Picture”

I synthesize all the big goings-on, all the headline market-moving news and data points, and I watch and “listen” to how the markets react.

Money moves markets, but psychology moves money.

Markets are living things. They have feelings; their reactions are a direct reflection of the psychological impact reflected in the buying and selling of traders (first) and investors (distantly second) to the goings-on that participants believe will affect the decision-making of other market participants.

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