Scotland's exports are in trouble but a Brexit could save them

As HMRC
announces yet more Scottish export declines, it's becoming
clear that Britain leaving the EU may be the only solution.

The figures aren't pretty:

Only one eighth of Scottish
goods are sold abroad

Overseas sales are down 9%

The fall in Scottish exports
is greater than the UK's overall, which is 6%

Machinery and transport
exports are down 5%

Whisky, one of Scotland's
biggest exports, was down 4.4%

This follows a general downward
trend for Scotland — a year before exports fell a massive 11%.
Notable declines were with the EU itself, particularly Germany
and the Netherlands. On the other hand, exports with the US only
dropped 3.5%.

Clearly, being in the EU isn't
helping Scottish exports. Scotland has long relied on the US,
particularly its love of great whisky, as its biggest trading
partner. Out of the EU Britain can agree its own beneficial
trading terms, free from Brussels' control, with a United States
that is recovering faster than the EU bloc.

Many analysts have blamed the
exports decline on a strong sterling, which makes Scottish
exports uncompetitive. As we saw at the end of February when
London Mayor Boris Johnson announced he would support a Brexit, a
drop in the value of the pound is all but certain if Britain
leaves the EU — and the fortunes of the overseas manufacturing
sector would improve accordingly.

Some may point to Ireland, an
EU member, which saw its trade increase last year by a massive
20%, as a reason to stay. But this was thanks primarily to
a weakening of the euro, not from the benefits of being in
the EU itself.

The fact is
the EU has stagnated and isn't particularly interested
in buying Scottish goods. Last year saw Germany, France, and
Italy all miss GDP targets, and no-one thinks it will improve any
time soon. Scotland should note that countries similar to its
size like Portugal and Finland did even worse.

It's no secret that
much of Scotland is against Britain leaving the EU. If
Britain votes for Brexit it could increase the momentum for a
second referendum on Scottish independence. For now this would be
a mistake — oil prices are far too low for Scotland to seriously
consider going independent in the current economic climate.

But by supporting Brexit, Scotland can benefit from greatly
improved trade and, more importantly, really cash in when the
world is hungry for oil again.