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Victory!

* Anatole Kaletsky: Associate Editor of The Times* Professor Norman Stone: Professor of International Relations and Director of the Russian Centre at Bilkent University, Ankara.* Alexei Pushkov: Anchor of the most popular Russian TV programme “Post Scriptum” which has considerable influence on Russian public perception of international events.

Speakers against the motion:

* Edward Lucas: Central and Eastern Europe correspondent for the The Economist and author of The New Cold War: How the Kremlin Menaces Both Russia and the West (2008).

Thursday, December 01, 2005

I can understand pure protectionism more easily. That is selfish andtimid, but at least it's not disguised as altruism. But a lot of themoaning about the "brain drain" from east European countries likeLatvia, Lithuania and Poland makes out that it is having a dreadfuleffect on these poor post-communist countries (for which read"aboriginal reservations"). The natives, so this patronising argumentgoes, would be so much happier living their traditional lifestyle(muddy, cold, vodka-soaked) than being spoiled by exposure to thetemptations of western culture.

Instead of celebrating the marvellous opportunities that migration ina united Europe presents, the old rich countries are pretending thatit's a disaster. How dare those funny little people with theirincomprehensible languages search for a better life elsewhere? Howdare they respond to market signals that tell them that their labouris more valuable abroad than at home? How dare they try to learn newskills? They should stop having ideas above their station, and insteadstay at home and go folkdancing in those picturesque felt boots, andwait gratefully for the nice new roads that the rich world is going togive them later in the century.

In theory, of course, migration combined with bad government can makea country collapse. Zimbabwe is a good example. There may be some signof that in the more benighted bits of central Asia (I am sure thatanyone who can leave Turkmenistan has done so). But what's happeningin the post-communist countries of eastern Europe is quite different.

For a start, the current wave of migration is quite small. Many morepeople moved immediately after the collapse of communism: Jews,Russians and Germans shifted around in their hundreds of thousands.But this was less politically sensitive. Germany, albeit not veryenthusiastically, feels that it has to be the ethnic homeland of allTeutons, however tenuous their connection. Israel feels the same aboutJews (who in some cases got their Israeli passports and moved on).Russians in the former Soviet empire were welcome home, regardless ofwhether they were really persecuted, or just unable to cope with theend of their imperial privilege.

The difference now is that the migration is economic, not political,and it's much more short-term. People are going abroad and tryingtheir luck. Sometimes it doesn't work out. Qualifications may beunrecognised, or employers unscrupulous. But it's not the end of theworld: if Greece is no good, try Italy. If Britain is overcrowded,there's Ireland. If nothing works, then there's a bus back home. Andif it does work, the pay-offs are great: money earned can be capitalfor a business or pay for education, or a better house. Simply seeinghow a hospital, farm or office in another country works is amind-stretching experience.

In short: free trade in people, as in goods or services, matches wantsand preferences precisely, creating more winners than losers. True,spending long periods abroad is not ideal for marriages, or forparenting, or for caring for elderly relatives if people. But ifstaying put means rotting your life away with ill-paid, boring work,that's not exactly ideal either.

Some east European employers are complaining. Their nice pool of cheaplabour is indeed draining away. But if they want to tempt the migrantsback, they'll have to work at it, by offering better pay andconditions, and raising productivity through better management andmore modern equipment. Help! At this rate, those muddy aborigines mayend up richer than us.

Edward Lucas is central and eastern Europe correspondent of The Economist

In most of the countries I cover, the prime minister lives in abubble, travelling in a large black shiny car from one well-guardedlocation to another, surrounded by obsequious advisers basking in hisreflected glory.

If he goes to a restaurant at all, it is a glitzy one with a privateroom. If the bill is paid at all, it is certainly not something thatbothers him directly.That's certainly true in Belarus, which I have just been discussing atan excellent conference organised by the Open Estonia Foundation (partof the Soros philanthropic empire).I follow Belarus fairly closely (in so far as I can without being ableto go there), but I was struck by the fierce new rules on internetaccess, which will deprive non-governmental organisations of theirbroadband connections.The draft new law on subversion threatens hefty prison sentences forcrimes such as "discrediting Belarus in co-operation withforeign-financed organisations and the mass media".But outside intervention will at best have a marginal impact. The realproblem is the deep Sovietisation of Belarussian society, which hasatomised and demoralised it to an extent unseen elsewhere in the region.The building blocks of democratic change - impatient middle classes,patriotism and religion - simply don't exist. So the most importantthing is to do no harm.A lively debate about economic sanctions ended with a consensus (Ithink) that a Soviet-style economic collapse was not going to happen,and that making Belarus poorer and more dependent on Russia wasunlikely to stoke pro-western and democratic feelings.The conference's high quality made up for the fact that my otherplans, to see some Estonian policy wonks, had been ruined by the tripof my fellow-countryman, Tony Blair. His heavily guarded convoy oflimousines had brought traffic to a standstill for large chunks of theday and the people I most wanted to meet were too busy, either becauseof him, or because of the disruption caused.But late in the evening I got a message that some government adviserswere at a restaurant and I was welcome to join them. That was niceenough: they might have had enough self-important British visitors forone day.As we chatted about Russia's slide to autocracy, the psychological warit wages against the Baltics, and the strange and dangerous way inwhich Western Europe seems to ignore this, a couple more people turnedup, pulling up chairs to the table, sitting down and tucking into thewine and tapas.They included the Estonian Prime Minister Andrus Ansip. I wasimpressed with four things. First, he was not spending time with ahand-picked group of top policy-advisers for a high-powereddiscussion, but hanging out with a rather random bunch ranging fromvery senior to rather junior, just to chew over the events of the day.Second, the conversation flowed naturally. I heard nobody laughingloudly at the boss's jokes, or falling silent when he spoke. Third,the other customers in the (very unpretentious) restaurant, and thestaff, showed not the slightest bit of surprise. Fourth, before Ansipleft, he made a point of checking that somebody was dealing with the bill.I told him how impressed I was, and why. "Estonia's like that," hereplied. "Some German tourists asked for my autograph in a restaurantrecently, just because they were so surprised that I would eat therelike a normal person."Sadly, I can't imagine this happening in Britain with Tony Blair anymore than it would in Belarus with Alexander Lukashenko. Lucky Estonia.# Edward Lucas is Central and Eastern Europe correspondent for TheEconomist.

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Regards

Edward

Bene Merito award

Without my foreknowledge, I was last year awarded the Bene Merito medal of the Polish Foreign Ministry. Although enormously honoured by this, I have sadly decided that I cannot accept it as it might give rise to at least the appearance of a conflict of interest in my coverage of Poland.

About me

"The New Cold War", first published in February 2008, is now available in a revised and updated edition with a foreword by Norman Davies. It has been translated into more than 15 foreign languages.
I am married to Cristina Odone and have three children. Johnny (1993, Estonia) Hugo (1995, Vienna) and Isabel (2003, London)