Europe returns to the 1930s

Czech police intercepted a group of Syrian asylum-seekers on a train headed for Germany. Upon being detained, the 200 or so refugees were marked with ink numbers on their forearms. While clearly a mishap, it was not the first time that Europeans were reminded of a period many would rather forget.

In July of this year, a Polish Member of the European Parliament, Janusz Korwin-Mikke, used the Nazi salute in a parliamentary debate. Two years earlier, members of the Greek Parliament for the far-right Golden Dawn party shouted “Heil Hitler” as their colleague Panagiotis Iliopoulos was being ejected from the chamber for unparliamentary language.

Historical parallels are always wrong or, at best, incomplete. But that does not mean that there is nothing to be learned from juxtaposing the past and the present. Much like in the 1930s, today’s Europe has five distinct elements of a geopolitical disaster in the making.

1. A dysfunctional monetary system

Economists from Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz to Ben Bernanke concur that the Great Depression of the 1930s was largely a result of inept monetary policy. In the face of a large shock, central banks let Western economies contract and go through a painful period of downward price adjustments, instead of aggressively providing them with liquidity. One reason was their commitment to gold convertibility. In this respect, the euro is today’s equivalent of the interwar gold standard. While it is not anchored to the price of a real commodity and therefore allows for the conduct of countercyclical monetary policy, it prevents individual eurozone countries, such as Italy or Greece, from using exchange rate adjustments to alleviate economic pain.

The interwar gold standard eventually disintegrated. Evidence suggests that this was for the best. Countries that left it first and devalued, such as the United Kingdom and the Nordic countries, experienced more vigorous economic recoveries than those that remained trapped in the “golden fetters” for longer. Leaving the eurozone is both politically and technically a much riskier enterprise than severing the link to gold. That explains the length and severity of the recession in a country like Greece. It does not explain, however, why the European Central Bank exacerbated the economic downturn by systematically undershooting its own inflation target and by letting countries on the eurozone’s periphery slip into deflation.

2. A rising revisionist power

Vladimir Putin is not Adolf Hitler. For one, he does not seem to embrace a murderous ideology that would command him to try to take over the world or annihilate people of a specific ethnicity. However, much like Germany in the 1930s, today’s Russia is emerging as a belligerent, revisionist power. Similarly to Germany’s defeat in World War I, the collapse of the Soviet Union has left an imprint on the Russian psyche, which Putin has leveraged masterfully to strengthen his own hold on power.

Just like Germany in the 1930s, the regime in the Kremlin is trying to reassert itself in its traditional sphere of influence, through militarism and the destabilization of its neighbors, such as Moldova, Georgia, and Ukraine. True, the methods of warfare have changed since the 1930s. Energy prices and propaganda allow the Kremlin to reach even farther West and erode the democratic gains made by European countries that we might think escaped the bosom of the Soviet Union a long times ago.

3. A lack of leadership

International order in the interwar period proved to be fragile because of a lack of leadership by liberal democracies. Following World War I, the U.K. was too feeble to return to its role as a dominant world power. The United States, in turn, displayed little interest in events beyond its border.

Nearing the end of Barack Obama’s two terms in office, many Europeans — especially those in Central and Eastern Europe — feel that America has largely abandoned them, notwithstanding their shared security arrangements. Leadership in the EU is lacking as well: the U.K. is drifting away from the continent and has little appetite to play the role of a great world power again. The EU’s natural leader, Germany, lacks the ambition to come across as truly assertive in today’s world, perhaps due to the lasting trauma of World War II.

4. A crumbling system of international cooperation

The failure of free societies to lead has consequences. Specifically, it opens space for more nefarious forces to step in, and makes it impossible to uphold the norms of the international political and economic order. The 1930s demonstrated that the League of Nations was not an effective instrument to maintain the international rule of law. The organization failed to stop Italy’s aggression against Abyssinia, Japan’s invasion of China, and Hitler’s and Mussolini’s support of nationalists in the Spanish Civil War. The Great Depression was also marked by a failure of international economic governance, as leading Western nations resorted to protectionism.

Needless to say, the free societies of the West have done little to protect Ukraine or Georgia against Russia’s aggression. And while a common European market has not been destroyed by trade barriers, the ongoing refugee crisis in the EU provides an even more striking example of the failure of international cooperation. Because border protection and the processing of asylum requests in the EU has been left to the individual member states, the inflow of refugees into the EU has become a commons problem.

Instead of a unified European response — welcoming refugees — EU member states are re-introducing border controls, marking the end of the freedom of movement within the EU. Needless to say, the refugee crisis brings about other disturbing parallels. In 1938, a Daily Mail headline warned Britons of “German Jews pouring into this country.” Switch the country and the religion, and the headlines today are eerily similar.

5. Losing the battle of ideas

In the 1930s, the defenders of democracy and free enterprise were on the defensive. Many Western intellectuals were convinced of the superiority of the Soviet system under Stalin’s rule, though some of them, such as André Gide or Arthur Koestler, sobered up after actually visiting the USSR. In the U.K., Oswald Mosley’s British Union of Fascists became a respectable political force. Incidentally, the publisher of the Daily Mail, Harold Harmsworth, happened to be a fan too.

Today, populist far-right and far-left political groups are on the rise once more. In Hungary, the governing Fidesz party is stepping up its xenophobic rhetoric in order to capture the electorate of Jobbik, the Neo-Nazi group that has become the second most popular party in the country. In Greece, the economic crisis brought to power Syriza, a coalition of Marxists, Maoists, self-styled “progressive Eurosceptics” and other left-wingers of all possible stripes, with connections to the Kremlin. The U.K.’s Labour Party is likely to elect Jeremy Corbyn, a man with a troubling network of friends and fringe foreign policy views, as its leader. Where there once were mainstream politicians, there is now Front National, Pegida, Podemos, or the anti-immigration Sweden Democrats, currently the leading political group in the country.

While worrying, none of these trends are irreversible. Nor do they mean that Europe is about to relive the most awful episode of its history. Yet, unless the continent changes its course, Europe is more than likely to transform from a harbinger of prosperity and democracy into a far less hospitable and more dangerous place.

Dalibor Rohac is a research fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. He tweets at @DaliborRohac.

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TheRealista

“Between an armed man and and un unarmed man no comparison can be made” {Niccolo Machiavelli}

Isn’t one the top priorities of the prospective US president to settle Russia (he repeatedly stresses that “he would have great relationship with Putin” and that “Ukraine is first and foremost the European affair”, “Why German which is a great strong country doesn’t do anything about Russia ?”).
I infer that one of the thing that will happen once Mr. Trump assumes presidency is that he will seek to find common ground and understanding with Russia which will probably involve giving Russia what they want in Ukraine (whatever that might be – I guess might and don’t want to write it).
Germany as a regional political and economic hegemon is unwilling to build up its military power and and assume the responsibility of being a power that guarantees and maintains order within its sphere of influence. Germany simply frowns on its responsibilities which naturally stem from its economic and political power. I assume its because the current German leadership is frightened in the first place of the connotations for the German internal politics and the impact on German society the re-militarization might have. The fear the sleeping demons of the past that might be awaken with the German mind. As Nietzsche put it …”Not necessity, not desire – no, the love of power is the demon of men. Let them have everything – health, food, a place to live, entertainment – they are and remain unhappy and low-spirited: for the demon waits and waits and will be satisfied.”
Almost with equal strength they worry to arouse the fear and anxiety and to evoke the historical memories of the past with their now European partners, once bitter and sworn rivals and enemies.
The bottoms line is, I don’t think the German can shirk their duty any longer and they should lead the way towards re-militarization, re-building the army, toward militarily guaranteeing the regional security by the force of arms (and the deterrence factor they provide).
As for the refugees’ issue which as I perceive it (thought I might be wrong) is for Germany also an issue of solving its Demographic problem – I honestly believe the Germans do seriously underestimate the extent of difficulties involved in integrating millions of Muslims (judging by and drawing logical conclusion from Mr.Gabriel’s declarations) into their society.
Fortunately (or perhaps it would be more appropriate to say unfortunately ?) we have no ample empirical evidence from other countries which engaged in a large-scale “import” of Muslim population into their countries – i.e. France, Sweden, Britain, Netherlands, UK, Denmark….
And this empirical evidence (ass opposed to someone’ wishful thinking and optimistic liberal internationalist desires) are far from reassuring, far from consolating, far from being able to put the objections of the opponents to rest. In fact, they just might be the opposite…
Look at Britain – their secrets serviced has foiled, in their own words “barbaric” graves acts being plotted.
Denmark is so tremendously keen (and positively enthusiastic about) on the prospect of importing more Muslim population that they have publish in Arabic speaking newspapers in the Middle East ads to discourage more immigration.
The French foreign minister has yesterday issued a clearing warning against mass Muslim immigration into Europe, (though striving to be subtle and not stir up worry anger and fear) – behind these thin-veiled words you could feel worry based on the real, material, “on the ground”, practical experience with Islam – contrasted to the German more abstract positivism and happy outlook on the future.

Posted on 9/9/15 | 7:12 AM CEST

TheRealist

There is a typo : I meant to say … “we have now ample empirical evidence” …..as opposed to “we have no empirical evidence”

Now time to ask world leaders why they are so provocative to establish democracies in the middle east!!!

Posted on 9/9/15 | 8:35 AM CEST

pexi

Germany best partner is Russia, Ms Merkel is an ex member of young communist, speeks perfectly russian and she knows personally Putin from the time he was a KGB agent in Germany, and for exemple Germany has signed a few day ago a very ambitous energetic deal with russian Gazprom… to double the NorthStream line…holding in mind that ex german canceller Schroeder is an acting employes of Gazmprom…

Posted on 9/9/15 | 6:45 PM CEST

Core

The reason why it is mention in this article here that the largest politcal party in Sweden is the Sweden Democrats is based on one single poll which was conducted right in the aftermath of a tragic killing of two customers at an Ikea store by a refugee.
Other polls made swiftly after that show that they’re not even close to be the largest party in Sweden, steadily growing though.

Posted on 9/10/15 | 3:52 AM CEST

sylvain

It is a fatal error to assume that Russia’s goal is expansion. Russia is afraid of NATO and tries to protect its independence.

Posted on 9/10/15 | 4:38 PM CEST

Author

Did anyone notice how the comments section has become a heap of trash and eccentricities?

Posted on 9/15/15 | 5:12 PM CEST

Olga

At us in Russia on this account it is said, “who what the heart thinks the tongue speaks”. If the author himself is a fascist (he may deny this, but at heart he’s a fascist, only a democratic manner), then he tries to blame the whole world except ourselves.

You know, we in Russia fascism never was. But there was always a healthy nationalism (it means to love his people, his nation, but not at the expense of other Nations). And that’s why we were able to build the most powerful state in the world.
West’s policy of building a multicultural world – the policy of self-abasement because of past sins. We no Nations were not enslaved, and destroyed, so we have no guilt complex. Rather, this complex should be worked out to our neighbors and the small peoples in Russia. Because thanks to the Russian people for many of the smaller Nations and our neighbors appeared statehood and national consciousness.

And you don’t understand it and try against Russia to work with the same methods that you use to humiliate the Germans and other Europeans. Set against small Nations against the Russians. So you never will change public opinion of the Russian people about Putin. If somebody starts talking about the guilt of the Russian people before someone or about infringement of someone’s rights, then any Russian knows that the West is against us. Because the Russians all have for what we have done for others throughout its history.

So I would like you to put your claims to yourself in the ass. We you do not indicate how to live. Although, in my opinion, your political system is worse than Hitler. Hitler at least had the courage to say that doing and going to do. Your Governments are doing the same thing as Hitler. Just call it a struggle for the ideals of democracy.

Vladimir

The author draws Parallels are not!”America is not involved in the Affairs of Europe”- that the U.S. stands at the head of ALL the problems of Europe from the revolution in Ukraine and the establishment of sanctions against Russia( which confessed the Secretary of state when he said that the US pressured the EU leaders in terms of sanctions).The outbreak of the US war in Iraq , support for the “moderate” opposition in Syria( whose members are the real cannibals!) , camber and the bombing of Yugoslavia – the links of one chain. The inability of the EU to act in THEIR own interests and to pursue their OWN policy led to the current situation!

Written by people who never will was in Russia and did not communicate with the Russian people , and that he understood what nonsense it is written – Russian do not want and do not like to fight.

Posted on 9/16/15 | 12:58 PM CEST

Ilais

“Polish Member of the European Parliament, Janusz Korwin-Mikke, used the Nazi salute in a parliamentary debate. Two years earlier, members of the Greek Parliament for the far-right Golden Dawn party shouted “Heil Hitler” as their colleague Panagiotis Iliopoulos was being ejected from the chamber for unparliamentary language” – blame RUSSIA as always