Wednesday, December 30, 2015

B1G:
@Iowa 83, Michigan St 70 - no overall harm to MSU, and a modest profile improvement for Iowa. Doesn't make their entire resume, though
Purdue 61, @Wisconsin 55 - Already, one of Wisky's hail-mary options to get back into the bubble talk is off the board

AAC:
SMU 81, @Tulsa 69 - kind of criminal that Tulsa's best reasonable signature win chance in conference play is already by the boards, but alas. SMU can wreck the NCAA chances of the conference if it wants to
Temple 77, @Cincinnati 70 - not a good look for Cincy; Temple has more work to do to be serious bubble players
@Memphis 77, Tulane 65

Tuesday, December 29, 2015

One final full day of non-con action, pretty much everyone throttled back.

Signature win of the day:@California 86, Davidson 60 - Cal acting like a tourney team (and Davidson starting to definitely look like a non-tourney team)

Catatstrophic loss of the day:
@Belmont 85, Valparaiso 81 - very tough ask to win at Belmont. Valpo's still in fine position, but they can't afford a high raw number of losses, and this is one less they can afford in Horizon play
UC-Santa Barbara 83, @Washington 78

Monday, December 28, 2015

Everyone knows how important SoS is. And while things will obviously change, it's late enough that we can start to read the tea leaves and see where teams stand. Who scheduled up well and gave themselves a chance this year?

Georgia (6-3) RPI 41 SoS 1
A strong SoS number comes from truly avoiding cupcakes. They got solid mid-majors in Oakland, Winthrop, and High Point to fill the bottom part of their schedule. The issue, however, is that their signature win is...Georgia Tech at home? And they lost to Chattanooga and K-State at home. So it's not an at-large team, but they ARE set up to make a run if they get quality wins in the SEC. A team like this with a marginal SoS is dead in the water even with quality SEC wins, but with this SoS, they'll have a fighting chance.

Xavier (12-0) RPI 1 SoS 2
We're going to have to talk X and the 1 line before too long, folks. Also Villanova is sitting at SoS 5, so some strong RPI mojo will get passed around in the Big East.

Wichita St (5-5) RPI 57 SoS 6
Here is where you reap the rewards of scheduling up. Injuries will play an issue when evaluating this resume (if you believe results before Van Vleet came back should be discarded, we're looking at 4-1 with wins over Utah and UNLV and a loss at SHU). The very strong SoS will save Wichita barring disaster.

Monmouth (9-3) RPI 13 SoS 26
Here's why I think Monmouth will at least hang in the at-large discussion. Took a 2-game road trip to UCLA/USC. Played a big MTT and big names within it. They also played 1 true home game out of 12 so far. The home/road thing is a discussion for a different post, but from a SoS perspective, they gave themselves enough big chances to offset what will happen to them in the MAAC.

Texas-Arlington (8-2) RPI 37 SoS 129
I've been championing them...with UTEP going in the tank a bit, they only have 4 legit games on the non-con SoS right now....all 4 roadies, and they split them (Ohio St and Memphis for, Texas and LaTech against). Really, splitting the legit games isn't bad. The SoS is really hurt by a few really harmful cupcakes. This will be an interesting test case in March if it comes to it.

Arkansas-Little Rock (8-1) RPI 35 SoS 182
While the schedule does have a lot of road/neutral games, it does have a couple cupcakes weighing it down. Plus, their wins (Tulsa, SDSU etc) are eroding a bit. While UTA is hanging up in the SoS department in the low 100s, it's much more difficult to make a case for one in the high 100s. We'll see though, because I do expect those quality wins to look better.

Valparaiso (8-2) RPI 20 SoS 87
I do think Valpo's non-con SoS will be in a comfortable range. They've done enough to make Horizon League play matter, IMO.

Dayton (9-2) RPI 9 SoS 3
Part of me thinks that the non-con SoS will be unsustainable, but it's obviously a perfect start, and should leave Dayton safely tucked within the bubble for a long time.

Long Beach St (4-8) RPI 85 SoS 8
UC-Santa Barbara (3-7) RPI 101 SoS 16
No at-large impact, but these numbers have helped the Big West climb the conference RPI rankings, and will help the conference's seed in March greatly. They'll get higher than they deserve, really.

Teams in the danger zone in the SoS department:
Marquette (10-2) RPI 158 SoS 306 - they're getting sunk by a plethora of bad cupcakes
Baylor (8-2) RPI 94 SoS 261 - doesn't help that NMSU and SFA are down this year. They're going to waste 3 games (1-2) against top 50 competition because of the other anchors
LSU (7-4) RPI 164 SoS 225 - their failures have been well-documented
Arizona (12-1) RPI 43 SoS 180 - obviously Zona will be fine, but we might need to scrutinize their seed more closely now

Saturday, December 26, 2015

So just one game was played on this day. One. Everyone else took it off. But who, of all programs, had the arrogance to play in and host a game on this day? Who considers themselves so self-important that they had to play?

Kentucky, of course! With a side helping of Louisville. Ugh.

@Kentucky 75, Louisville 73 - will be useful for UK's seed, Louisville's resume is kind of actually garbage, but ACC play will fix that

Stupid Diamond Head on what should've been a 2nd straight day off for the sport.

Oklahoma 83, Harvard 71 - Oklahoma winds up with 3 empty-calories wins. Not great for them but hey, wins are better than losses
Hawaii 79, Auburn 67 - Hawaii binks a 3rd place on its home court. I'm not THAT opposed to them in the at-large pool...if they come close to running the Big West table
BYU 84, Northern Iowa 76 - BYU trying to hang on in the bubble picture, but the WCC being in the tank is its death knell. Meanwhile, what the heck, UNI?
Washington St 82, New Mexico 59 - well, so much for UNM

Diamond Head Classc
Dec 22, 23, 25
8 teams in your standard format
The matchups:
Auburn vs. New Mexico
BYU vs. Harvard
Oklahoma vs. Washington St
Northern Iowa at Hawaii
The stakes: Oklahoma looks pretty clearly the best team here, but all of a sudden a OU/UNI semifinal looks like the best game here. It's not make-or-break for UNI since they just binked one against Iowa St, though. So the stakes aren't as high here. On the other end of the bracket, 2 teams are going nowhere (Auburn and Harvard) and New Mexico is teetering. BYU is kinda forced into a situation where they need to win twice.

Sunday, December 13, 2015

Signature wins of the day:
@Texas 84, North Carolina 82 - useful home win
@Xavier 65, Cincinnati 55 - Xavier could be looking at the 2 or 3 line soon
UCLA 71, @Gonzaga 66 - a road win with values
@Wichita St 67, Utah 50 - a team desperately needing a good win got it

Catastrophic losses of the day:
@Boise St 74, Oregon 72 - I guess Boise needed it, but it's worse for Oregon to lose it
Marquette 57, @Wisconsin 55
Chattanooga 61, @Dayton 59 - the good news here is Dayton did a lot of good before this game

Saturday, December 12, 2015

Almost no one played last night. Literally not a single score that I would normally type up here occurred last night.

Cupcake winners: Pitt, Valparaiso (on the road! at a terrible team, but still on the road), North Dakota St (on the road, too).

By the way, Valpo is 7-2 overall, and 4-2 on the road. The committee looks favorably upon playing all those roadies, and winning them. Losing at Ball St is forgivable when you beat Oregon St and Rhode Island on the road too. The bad news is they might be out of quality win chances because the Horizon is a tire fire.

Monday, December 7, 2015

Signature wins of the day:
@Baylor 69, Vanderbilt 67 - not likely to overly impact either team
@Florida St 76, VCU 71 - rebound for FSU and a pretty big blow to VCU

Catastrophic losses of the day:
Colorado 88, @Colorado St 77 - not seeing the strength in the MWC this year, so these drops of home games are pretty costly
San Diego 53, San Diego St 48 - and this is why the MWC is down

I won't regurgitate the info here, but the gist is this: a 16-team tournament, but all played on a neutral site (Vegas, naturally).

What does this mean? Actually more than you think.

NCAA as the #1 tournament and NIT as the #2 tournament will stay that way forever.

Right now we have the CBI (16 teams) and CIT (32 teams) to cover additional postseason needs. CBI seems to cater to higher-major teams, and the CIT actively avoids anyone who's not a mid-major. However, both charge a fee to any team that hosts a game in their tournament. This, plus the general stigma of playing in a marginal postseason tournament, leads some teams to decline postseason bids.

The new Vegas 16 is a neutral site game, and is a 5 day commitment. The CBI/CIT may require home games, and a 2-3 week commitment. You will see some teams choose Vegas over the CBI/CIT because of the less commitment required. My guess is you'll see more mid-majors stay in the CIT where they can play at home and in front of fans, while more high-majors head to Vegas for a one-off.

A big key here is the different format - some programs will like the idea of a single-elimination tournament beginning and ending in the same week instead of over 3 weeks, and just one neutral site location instead of fluid travel plans.

The one obstacle? Before this year, 148 teams made the postseason out of 351 in D-1. Adding this, 148 bumps up to 164. That's a lot of teams, and the ends of all 3 fields (Vegas, CBI, CIT) might be weak.

Who will this hurt? Likely the CBI. High-major teams that would usually choose the CBI will likely choose Vegas instead. I wouldn't be surprised if the CBI dies next year, or even this year. I think the CIT will remain as is for the foreseeable future. The CIT specifically caters itself to the low-majors. They know their market, and they serve it well enough.

Having the Vegas 16 is overkill, unless it successfully kills off the CBI.

Wednesday, December 2, 2015

B1G/ACC Challenge:
@North Carolina 89, Maryland 81 - no harm no foul for Maryland, and a nice win for UNC that could come in handy when the debate for the #1 overall seed kicks in down the road
Virginia 64, @Ohio St 58 - good hold by the better team on the road here. OSU is in all sorts of trouble this year
Purdue 72, @Pittsburgh 59 - another one where the road team was the better team, and proved it. Road wins are important if you want to be a protected seed
Miami 77, @Nebraska 72 (OT) - another road win by the better team! The committee is impressed, everyone
Michigan 66, @North Carolina St 59 - another one! Road games are supposed to be tough, but the better teams are winning
Northwestern 81, @Virginia Tech 79 - this just might be Northwestern's year

Signature win of the day:
@Texas 80, Texas-Arlington 73 (OT) - yes, it counts. As for UTA, man if they got this....but still, with other quality wins, the mission is now to win all games they should

Tuesday, December 1, 2015

Time for a modest update. This is a weird hybrid curve of results and predictions, as there's not enough raw data to analyze a team on the results alone. So it's a weird hybrid where teams who earned a higher seed to date aren't up there and tanking teams aren't wholly removed.