Obama's Colorado fundraising edge doesn't guarantee victory

Nov. 3, 2012

Written by

Raju Chebium

Gannett Washington Bureau

WASHINGTON — President Barack Obama is raising more money from more donors in Colorado compared to Republican challenger Mitt Romney, but experts say that’s no guarantee that he will win on Election Day.

Obama has raised $1.34 million more than Romney in Colorado in this election cycle, according to the Federal Election Commission.

The president also has a much larger network of donors — most of them small donors who give a few dollars here and there — compared to Romney, whose supporters tend to write bigger checks, the records show.

Though the numbers suggest Obama has more support statewide, experts say the 2012 election remains unusually close nationwide and point to polls showing that the race for Colorado’s nine electoral votes is too close to call. Obama had a lead of less than 1 percentage point in Colorado going into November, according to a RealClearPolitics’ average of seven statewide polls.

More donations don’t necessarily mean electoral success for one reason, according to Washington political analyst Stuart Rothenberg: “Contributors are really just a tiny portion of the electorate.”

“You have all these other people who don’t contribute who are influenced by the ads, influenced by events (and are) evaluating the candidates. They’re going to make their own decisions,” he said.

Though campaigns view contributions as a measure of support for their candidate, “there’s not a one-to-one correlation between contributors and who the total electorate is going to vote for,” Rothenberg said. “Contributions are often used to reflect support and enthusiasm. You can only go so far with that.”

According to the FEC, Obama has raised $9.49 million in Colorado compared to $8.15 million for Romney in this cycle.

Obama out-raised the former Massachusetts governor by about $1.5 million in liberal Denver, by nearly $300,000 in moderate Larimer County, but trailed Romney by about $1.3 million in conservative Douglas County. The president also attracted far more but smaller donations than Romney in moderate and conservative areas of the state, federal data showed.

(Page 2 of 3)

Obama raised $2.87 million from 21,965 donations in Denver’s 802 zip codes, which works out to an average of $131 per contribution. Romney, in contrast, received 2,612 contributions from donors in the 802 zip codes, but collected $1.39 million because the average donation — $532 — was higher.

In Larimer County, Obama received 9,273 contributions from people living in the 805 zip codes, for a total of nearly $871,000. The average donation works out to $94. Romney received $585,000 from 1,680 donations, or about $348 per contribution.

Romney had fewer donors than Obama in Douglas County’s 801 zip codes — 4,777 — but he came out on top, raising $2.4 million. His average contribution there was $502. Obama’s 10,035 donations netted him $1.02 million in Douglas County, and the average contribution amounted to $101.

John Straayer, a Colorado State University political scientist, said the higher number of donations doesn’t mean state residents are more enthusiastic about Obama — a key factor that sparked a high turnout and led to Obama’s victory in Colorado in 2008.

Given the level of vitriol against Obama this year, the opposite may be true — his opponents may be more motivated to vote him out of office, Straayer said.

“A lot of Democrats were really angry with George W. Bush. A lot of people didn’t like (Bill) Clinton. I don’t remember the level of intensity, anger — almost bordering on hatred in some quarters — directed at Obama,” Straayer said. “I don’t say that to paint everybody who votes for Romney that way or paint the Republican Party that way, but I think there’s a strain of that in this election that’s a little stronger than I remember. That would point, perhaps, to more enthusiasm, more excitement, more intensity on the Republican side.”

Early-voting totals appear to bear that out — more Republicans than Democrats are casting their ballots ahead of Tuesday.

As of Friday, 1.46 million of 3.64 million registered voters had cast their ballots early, according to the Colorado Secretary of State. Of those, 547,150 were Republicans and 509,091 were Democrats.

(Page 3 of 3)

But independents still hold the key to election in Colorado and elsewhere, and 390,875 of them had voted early in the state as of Friday, state numbers show.

While the presidential candidate who raised the most money won 21 of 29 elections between 1860 and 1972, that hasn’t been always the case in recent years, said CSU political scientist Kyle Saunders.

Republicans consistently outraised Democrats in the 1980s and 1990s and President George H.W. Bush beat Democrat Michael Dukakis in 1988, but President Bill Clinton, a Democrat, won in 1992 and 1996, he said.

“They seem to have a little bit better fundraising capacity ... so there’s definitely some evidence that the ground game and the coordinated efforts of the Democratic Party seem to be a little bit better than the Republicans,” Saunders said. “Whether or not that ends up mattering I’m not quite sure.”