Incumbents in general will raise money throughout the cycle, so election scholars will often look to non-incumbents as an indicator of what to expect in the coming election. In 2015, the number of challengers who reported raising money so far in the cycle was 98, down from 2013 (139) and 2011 (134). However, the decline has not been equal in both parties. Most has been among the Republicans. Two years ago, 79 Republican challengers filed June 30 reports with the Federal Election Commission (FEC). This year the number was 41. Two years ago, there were 34 Republican open seat candidates. This year there are 13. Of course, it is too early to read too much into the tea leaves. But at this time six years ago, 182 challengers were already active. Most (120) were Republicans. Momentum was already building for the GOP takeover of the House in 2010. Nothing so far suggests another takeover in 2016. But the odds for gaining seats look stronger from the early returns for the Democrats.

Even though there were fewer challengers this year, total challenger receipts were actually up by 15%, influenced somewhat by two who have each loaned their campaigns $1 million. Democratic challengers have raised four times as much as Republican challengers in total. On average, they have receipts of $220,000 (compared to the Republicans’ $70,000), and cash on hand of $202,000 (compared to $53,000 for the Republicans). Nineteen Democratic challengers have already raised at least $200,000 (as compared to 11 in 2013) and 11 have raised at least $500,000 (compared to four in 2013). And the average Democratic candidate for an open seat raised $228,000 through June 30, compared to $95,000 for the GOP counterparts. It is clear that the Democratic non-incumbents are off to a faster start this year than the Republicans.

New Members

First-term members are normally more vulnerable as a group than their counterparts, so they move quickly to try to build up political strength from their incumbency. Activity among the newest members of the House this year has been consistent with other new member groups looking back to 2003. It does not take long for the newcomers to learn to how to raise money like an incumbent. This year’s crew has raised 41% of their money so far from political action committees (PACs). That is in line with the record of freshman incumbents over the past decade, but it is a big change from the way they raised money before they took office: challengers normally raise about 15% of their money from PACs over the course of a full cycle, and open-seat candidates about 25%.

The Campaign Finance Institute is the nation’s pre-eminent think tank for objective, non-partisan research on money in politics in U.S. federal and state elections. CFI’s original work is published in scholarly journals as well as in forms regularly used by the media and policy making community. Statements made in its reports do not necessarily reflect the views of CFI's Trustees or financial supporters.