Analysts predict Greens could hold the balance of power in Senate after election

Analysts say it is unlikely either major party will have a majority in the Senate this next term of Government, with a strong possibility the Greens may have the balance of power.

Transcript

TONY JONES: One of the most unexpected results of the last federal election was the Coalition wresting control of the Senate away from Labor and the minor parties.

This cleared the way for the Government to push through legislation like WorkChoices in the certain knowledge they had the numbers in the Upper House.

Well, no matter who wins this election, analysts say it's unlikely either of the major parties will have a majority in the Senate in the next term. And there's a strong possibility the Greens may end up holding the balance of power.

Deborah Cornwall takes a look at how the numbers are stacking up.

BOB BROWN, GREENS LEADER: And we Greens are giving the real colour to this election campaign. And as I said at the outset, that colour is Green for go.

DEBORAH CORNWALL: It's two-and-a-half decades since leader of the Greens, Bob Brown, made his dramatic entry into Australian politics. Protesting the damning of the Franklin River in Tasmania.

BOB BROWN (1989 archival footage): We live on a wonderful island in a planet which only has once chance.

DEBORAH CORNWALL: It's been a long, slow march to the nation's capital, but after seeing off the Democrats in the last federal election, the Greens now have four seats in the Senate, and are almost certain to hold the balance of power after the next election.

MALCOLM MACKERRAS, ELECTION ANALYST: I believe that the result of this election in the Senate will be that we'll finish up with 34 Coalition, 33 Labor senators, seven Greens, one Family First, and one senator, Nick Xenophon, independent from South Australia. The Greens are the new third force, and will be in a very powerful position in the Australian Senate, and in the States

ANTONY GREEN, ABC ELECTION ANALYST: Well, the Greens are polling roughly the same as they did at the last election when they elected two senators. The difference this time is the balance of power between the Liberal and the Labor party is very different, and this time the Greens aren't competing with Labor for seats, the Greens are competing with the Liberals for seats.

DEBORAH CORNWALL: Former West Australian Premier Geoff Gallop says while Labor's preference sharing deal with the Greens should help them in the Upper House, they may also be picking up support because of the failure of both major parties on the critical issue of climate change.

GEOFF GALLOP, FORMER WA PREMIER: I think the issue where the Greens have gained in recent times is on this fundamental question of climate change. And people now realise that the climate change issue isn't a normal environmental issue. It's also going to the heart of our economy, it's going to the heart to our way of life. So this is a real plus for the Greens, particularly given the fact that both major parties are very cautious on this question.

BOB BROWN, GREENS ADVERTISEMENT: Giving the Greens a voice that will be heard is like having third party insurance.

DEBORAH CORNWALL: This election, the Greens have also pitched themselves to voters as the buffer against either major party having the majority in the Senate.

BOB BROWN: We've had three years of the Coalition dictating and getting through its nasty WorkChoices legislation, and selling off Telstra, et cetera, without any real review by the Senate and its committee system because they simply had the numbers.

DEBORAH CORNWALL: Malcolm Mackerras says despite the Greens' radical policy positions on environment and social reform, the idea of returning an empire to the Senate will be very attractive to some voters.

MALCOLM MACKERRAS: Since the Hawke era effectively, the minor parties have essentially assume that they would have the balance of power and they have behaved very responsibly. But Mr Howard is a control freak, let's face it, and once he got a majority in the Senate, he told the Australian people that they voted for WorkChoices, so he foisted WorkChoices on us. This was a blatant abuse of the Senate's power.

DEBORAH CORNWALL: West Australia is the only state where the Greens currently hold the balance of power in the Upper House. But it's been a far from easy relationship with the State Labor Government.

GEOFF GALLOP: Where the Greens were always very uncomfortable with a mainstream Labor government was on economic type issues, and I think that will be the challenge should Kevin Rudd win and he has to deal with a Green balance of power in the Senate. On the question of social reform, the Greens were quite supportive of us in Western Australia, but I'm not sure that's going to be an issue which is going to be given priority whoever wins the next federal election.

DEBORAH CORNWALL: If past form is any indication, a Green power bloc in the Senate will be a challenge for whichever party wins government. But it certainly won't be dull. Deborah Cornwall, Lateline.

Search Lateline

Sort by: relevancedate

Video

Analysts predict the Greens could hold the balance of power in the Senate after the election