Thursday news and notes

Tonight I finished all of the writing for the 2013 Prospect Guide. I will be ready for the printer on Monday. If you plan on purchasing a soft cover version of the book rather than the PDF version, please pre-order if before the weekend is over. Soft cover version orders have been few and far between thus far and the pre-orders are what I have used in the past to determine the amount to order (and use the pre-order money to help pay for printing costs).

The Rule 5 draft is at 10am today. If the Reds lose or gain any players, I will update this post with information.

Redsfest begins tomorrow. I can’t stress to you enough how awesome Redsfest is. If you can make it down for the event, you really should. Here is a list of the minor leaguers who will be in attendance:

Tucker Barnhart

Tony Cingrani

Daniel Corcino

Billy Hamilton

Ryan LaMarre

Kyle Lotzkar

El’Hajj Muhammad

Denis Phipps

Todd Redmond

Steve Selsky

Robert Stephenson

Pedro Villarreal

Essentially all of the Major Leaguers will be there with the exception of Jay Bruce, who is getting married. There will also be about 20 former Reds attending the event.

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The money would be less if you figure the differnce in Votto and Gonzalez contracts. Bailey is going to get more expensive soon and Cueto will break the bank in 2 years. Rotation might not be quite as good but has potential to be even better plus there would be high end pitching to take over jobs. The D stays the same if not better and there are far better run producers than what this team curently have. Plus it has a legit lead off man that can get on base. What about the current team do you like better?

Not one single trade would be popular with the fan base, so gut nearly the whole team and expect attendance to not take a heavy hit? Bruce, Votto, Cueto… these guys are the faces of the franchise. It’s taken a helluva long time to get to this point and you just want to blow it up? Maybe if we were playing fantasy baseball…

You can’t worry about the fan base and their attachment to players. In a market like the Reds you have to be willing to be bold like Oakland was last year. If you win consistently fans will come.
This was just more for fun I thought people would like throwing around crazy trades I don’t want the reds to do this but it’s something they might want to think about to stay competitive.

That 2011 Oakland wasn’t really competitive. Talented, somewhat, but not all that competitive. I don’t blame Billy Beane for reconstructing that team from the ground up. But, the current Reds team IS competitive now and should be for a decent 3+ years. Dominant, no, but should be in the thick of things in the NL Central for a while. Injuries and management will be the only thing keeping them from maxxing out their potential.

I could see one radical trade working out. I’d trade Chapman+parts to Miami for Stanton without thinking about it much. That’s not to say I don’t believe in Chapman as a starter, I do, I just think it’s a trade that could be great for both teams. I’d wet my pants over a 2014+ lineup of:
Hamilton CF
Philips 2B
Votto 1B
Stanton LF
Bruce RF
Frazier 3B
Cozart/Didi SS
Mesoraco C
P

What dont you like about them? Is it you just aren’t familier with other teams prospects or that the Reds could get more. The point was just to have a little fun and spark a little discussion on a very slow winter meetings. IMO opinion the Reds would be lucky to even get these guys if these players were being discussed. What would this team be missing with the way I drew it up? This team would be contending for the next 5 years alone just on the pitching that they would have plus it would give the team more financial flexability to negotiate with Latos and Chapman. There is no way that the they are going to be able to afford Bailey, Latos, Cueto, and Chapman in the next few years.

Votto and his contract are probably not moveable just due to sheer size, but I guess in order to due it, you need to get back 50 cents on the dollar which is what this trade is. Hultzen has alot of pub, but in twelve starts in AAA he had a rate of 7.95 BB/9. Walker is highly, highly thought of, but has never dominated.

Bruce to TB is a horrible trade. You don’t trade an All-Star RF with 35 HR power and solid defense for a #3 and #5 pitcher. Cobb is equal to Leake.

No way Rangers make this deal because the Reds make out like bandits.

My only concern with Upton is medical. If he passes then make the trade.

I don’t believe in buying high on Colorado players. Fowler’s home/road OPS splits for this year are .984/.720. Career is .882/.698. CarGo is 1.046/.706 and 1.003/.735. Those are insane. Add in that UZR has rated Fowler as anywhere from bad to horrible on defense for his whole career. I don’t really like defensive metrics, but 4 years is a big sample.

In summation, you weaken the rotation by subbing Hellickson for Cueto. The prospects are far from sure things. Upton may or may not be damaged goods. Fowler and CarGo are poor hitters away from Denver. Oh yeah, LaRoche is a journeyman who had a career year in a walk year. The Reds aren’t giving Ludwick three years, why give LaRoche three?

I think Seattle would do that trade and take on that salary. They are starving for O. I do know that every time Gonzalez kills the Reds when he comes tGABP and is a plus defender. Fowler has gotten a lot of interest this off season so there is something about him people like. I agree you a little about Cueto but look at the numbers Grinke looking over 100 million. IMO I think Cueto is better. So they might be willing to do it for 2 years at 8 million per. That package is not much different then what the Reds gave up for Latos. Bruce for Helickson is about the piece that you could get back, but I am not really sure what you could get at this point especially since Reds can’t take on a lot of salary. Laroche had a great year in the NL east which is mostly pitcher friendly parks.

I am just trying to think like Oakland. Trading players before they get to expensive since the Reds are such a small market. Pretty soon they wil not be able to afford all this talent. Cueto will be in line for well over 100 million. Baily and Latos will be due huge raises. Chapman will be looking at a big raise. I was not a big fan of the contract that Votto got so if they could get out of it they need to look at it. But thanks for at least giving your opinion and just not saying something smart ass. I just don’t understand why people have to be so quick to prove you wrong.

Im pretty sure Cueto will make less in 2 years than what Bronson will make this year. Hardly breaking the bank. He will be a bargain as long as he is healthy. We have starting pitching depth in the minors so the way its set up now I would let Cueto’s deal expire and let him walk. You get an extra pick and 3 years of an Ace pitcher. Not trying to be a jerk but why trade that?

MLB.com has the Reds taking Dennick and Baseball America has the Braves taking him. BA also says the Reds lost Marquez Smith, who according to BA we had signed in early November, but the mlb.com has him from the Red Sox, his 2012 team. None of it is a big deal, but conflicting none the less. Gilmartin can play middle infield at AA, where there could be an opening.

I have been AWOL from the internet most of the day. I finished the book today. I did all of my edits and sent it off to someone else for a second look. I tuned in for the MLB phase of the Rule 5 draft, then tuned out. I will check in on these guys next week at some point.

The key difference is the Reds only need a guy until Billy Hamilton is ready. Revere’s value to the Phillies is long term.
I concur Alan given the price for free agents and trade I’m inclined to go with a cheap free agent Posednik type to compete with Stubbs, and hopefully by June Hamilton will have enough seasoning at spring Training/AAA to at least produce as well as Stubbs.

Worley is probably a little more valuable than Leake. And while I think Worley has some injury history, you don’t know how much weight the Twins put on that. I would put May on an equal level in regards to prospect status to Cingrani. My first thought was Lotzkar, but his serious injury history drops him.

Would you be willing to trade Leake and Cingrani (or Corcino) for a guy with a career OBP of .319 and absolutely no power?

Ben Revere was not a good fit. Hindsight being what it is, I think Jocketty is kicking himself he couldn’t get Span. Victorino would have been the best choice but he got way too expensive. The numbers for OF’s has been unbelieveable. (A switchhitter at the top of the lineup would be real nice.)

I think now the best course of action is to create a strict platoon in CF will a LH hitter and Stubbs. Even a Hamilton/Stubbs platoon could help both players.

Ceiling wise, unless he steps forward with velocity, is probably a 6th/7th inning reliever. I imagine that like years in the past, he will be among a group of prospects who are all in one line. Hamilton and Stephenson will probably have their own lines. The rest of the guys will probably be bundled into groups of 2-3 guys who all sign from one line.

I went to RedsFest 10 years ago and went around and got all the “prospects” to sign a ball. Ty Howington, Chris Gruler, Luke Hudson, Bobby Basham, Dustin Mosely, Josh Hall, along with Wily Mo Pena and Chris Reitsma. Talk about ghosts of Christmas’ past. I keep the ball in our basement bathroom. The organization has come a long way in 10 years.

Howington and Gruler were both highly rated high school prospects(1st round). I had high hopes for both and both succumbed early to career ending arm injuries. Nothing has changed. Pitchers are high risk commodities. They can be here today(on top of the world) and gone tomorrow.

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