Russia continues to believe that the immediate resumption of UN weapons
inspections in Iraq is the quickest way to determine whether Iraqi
President Saddam Hussein possesses weapons of mass destruction, Foreign
Minister Igor Ivanov said on 28 September following a meeting in Moscow
with U.S. Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Marc Grossman
and Political Director in the British Foreign Office Peter Ricketts,
Russian news agencies reported. Ivanov said that Moscow "is
disappointed" with the U.S.-British draft resolution on Iraq and views
it as "unrealizable." VY

Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon arrived in Moscow for talks with
President Vladimir Putin, Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov, Defense
Minister Sergei Ivanov, and Foreign Minister Ivanov, Russian news
agencies reported on 28 September. Sharon, who supports the hard-line
position of U.S. President George W. Bush on Iraq, will explain Israeli
concerns over Russia's ongoing program of nuclear cooperation with
Iran. Sharon, who is being accompanied on this trip by Mossad chief
Efraim Halevi, will also articulate objections to Russia's sale of
antiaircraft weapons to Syria (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 3 September
2002). Sharon will also meet with leaders of the Russian Jewish
community and with Russian Orthodox Patriarch Aleksii II in an effort
to bolster his support among Israel's ex-Soviet emigre community, which
constitutes more than 25 percent of the country's population, ntvru.com
and other Russian news agencies reported. VY

Krasnoyarsk Krai's election commission voted on 29 September to annul
the results of the 22 September gubernatorial election of which
Aleksandr Khloponin had been declared the winner (see "RFE/RL
Newsline," 23 September 2002), Russian news agencies reported.
According to the krai's commission, the cancellation was necessary
because of numerous election-law violations such as the distribution of
leaflets that warned krai voters to stay away from the polls because of
possible terrorist acts and other incidents at polling stations,
ITAR-TASS reported. Some leaflets reportedly claimed that voters would
have to pay to vote. The commission set 2 March 2003 as the date for a
new gubernatorial election. One member of the krai's commission,
Svetlana Goryacheva, who voted against canceling the election, said
that such violations take place in any election campaign. In addition,
she said many of the allegations haven't been proven. The head of the
krai's elections commission, Georgii Kostrykin, was reportedly
hospitalized on 29 September after suffering a heart attack, AP
reported. Kostrykin was scheduled to appear before the krai's
legislature on 30 September to explain his commission's action.
Krasnoyarsk Krai First Deputy Governor Nikolai Ashlapov will continue
as acting governor until the controversy is resolved or new elections
are held. JAC

Reacting to news of the cancellation, Central Election Commission
(TsIK) Chairman Aleksandr Veshnyakov said the decision was "to put it
mildly, dubious" and that a team of TsIK officials will be dispatched
to the krai to investigate, Russian news agencies reported. Veshnyakov
added, "I think the commission might have been under pressure during
the ballot." He also noted that an election commission has never before
annulled the results of an election: A gubernatorial election was
cancelled in Amur Oblast previously, but only after an investigation
and court hearings. Khloponin said he would await the results of TsIK's
investigation before deciding what course of legal action to pursue.
Other Moscow-based officials criticized the Krasnoyarsk commission's
decision, including State Duma Deputy Speaker Lyubov Sliska (Unity),
Union of Rightist Forces (SPS) head Boris Nemtsov, People's Deputy
leader Gennadii Raikov, and Yabloko deputy faction leader Sergei
Ivanenko. However, Communist Deputy Sergei Glaziev, who came in third
during the first round of the Krasnoyarsk vote and who has since
complained about irregularities during the campaign (see "RFE/RL
Newsline," 13 September 2002), called the commission's decision
logical, noting it had "closed its eyes" to the great number of
violations committed during the first round. JAC

Moscow-based media have already been discussing the question of whether
Khloponin would run for president in 2008, regions.ru noted on 27
September. Vyacheslav Nikonov, head of the Politika Foundation, told
"Vedomosti" the previous day that he considers Khloponin "strong and
dynamic," but much of his political future will depend on his
performance as governor. Valerii Fedorov, director of the Center for
Political Situations, suggested that 2008 is too soon, but 2012 is a
realistic possibility. However, he added, it would be essential that
Khloponin not become "tied up in the problems of the krai." "Moskovskie
novosti" on 24 September also raised the question of whether Khloponin
would make a good presidential candidate in 2008. JAC

Khloponin's second-round opponent, krai legislature Speaker Aleksandr
Uss, told journalists on 30 September that he will not participate in
new gubernatorial elections if they are held, NTV reported. "For me,
the elections ended last Monday," Uss said. He added that he also does
not intend to participate in any court cases stemming from the vote. "I
have doubts that the elections were conducted honestly, but the
election commission's decision was fairly unexpected for me," Uss said.
He also called on the media not to over-dramatize the situation and
suggested that it might be better if regional executive-branch heads
were appointed rather than elected. RC

A local court in Nizhnii Novgorod has sealed the ballots in the second
round of mayoral elections there, making it impossible for election
officials to complete the vote count and certify the results, Russian
and Western news agencies reported on 30 September. According to RTR,
officials succeeded in counting more than 97 percent of the ballots
before the court ruling and State Duma Deputy Vadim Bulavinov had a
razor-thin lead with 34.97 percent of the vote. Incumbent Mayor Yurii
Lebedev had 34.59 percent. Twenty-nine percent of voters voted "against
all." The decision to seal the ballots was the first such ruling in the
history of post-Soviet Russian elections and came as a result of an
appeal filed by Bulavinov that expressed doubt as to the accuracy of
the count. The ballots will remain sealed until Bulavinov's case is
heard. Lebedev described the ruling as "political terrorism." TsIK
Chairman Veshnyakov said that the situation in Nizhnii Novgorod will be
resolved in the next few days and within the framework of the law. He
compared the situation to that which evolved in Florida during the 2000
U.S. presidential race. RC

Following heavy fighting on 27 September, by 28 September the Chechen
fighters in Galashki had split up into small groups, Russian news
agencies reported. Russian military officials said on 29 September the
Chechens are pinned down in wooded upland terrain and are being
subjected to steady artillery bombardment. They said Russian forces
completely control the Chechen-Ingush administrative border, precluding
a breakthrough by the remaining Chechen fighters into Chechnya. Late on
27 September, a group of some 20 Chechen fighters attacked the local
police station in the village of Meskety, near the border between
Chechnya's Kurchaloi Raion and Daghestan, taking three policemen
hostage, Interfax reported. LF

RTR on 29 September broadcast videotape reportedly shot by British
freelance television journalist Gervaise Roderick John Scott, who was
killed during a clash between Russian troops and Chechen separatists
near the Ingush village of Galashki (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 26 and 27
September 2002), showing how the Chechen detachment crossed the
Georgian-Russian border. RTR also showed an unidentified Chechen
fighter who said that Georgian authorities helped the unit cross the
border and that field commander Ruslan Gelaev made the crossing with
them. Meanwhile, NTV commented on 29 September that the appearance of
about 100 Chechen fighters near Galashki left many questions
unanswered. First, how could such a large detachment cross the border
undetected? Second, if the fighters crossed the border two weeks ago as
the Russian authorities allege, where have they been in the interim?
Finally, NTV asked, where have the remaining fighters gone, since the
Russian military has reportedly only recovered eight bodies and
captured six prisoners? VY

Sergei Fridinskii told Interfax on 27 September that it is not certain
whether a man killed during fighting early on 26 September in
Ingushetia between Chechen fighters and Russian forces is Scott. He
said the man's appearance does not correspond to the photograph in
Scott's passport, which was found on the body. On 28 September,
Interfax quoted Fridinskii as saying that identification is problematic
because the dead man's face was too badly damaged by an explosion to
compare with the passport photo. But he added that the dead man had
London subway tickets in his pocket. Russian officials said the
previous day that the man presumed to be Scott and the other killed
Chechen fighters were wearing NATO uniforms. But no Russian official
has yet explained why the man would have carefully transferred a London
subway ticket from his civilian clothes to the pocket of his NATO
uniform before crossing the Georgian-Russian border. LF

Speaking on 29 September in Magas, Ingushetia's president, Federal
Security Service (FSB) Major General Murat Zyazikov, accused unnamed
forces of seeking to extend the war in Chechnya and "unleash
manslaughter" in his republic, ITAR-TASS reported. He expressed
particular concern that the militants fighting in Galashki included
"representatives of a foreign state." LF

Zurab Abashidze was summoned to the Russian Foreign Ministry on 27
September and presented with a formal written protest against Georgian
officials' statements that Georgia is driving illegal armed groups from
its territory back into Russia, Reuters and Interfax reported. The
protest note said that approach not only demonstrates Georgia's
"unwillingness to cooperate with the international community's fight
against terrorists," but amounts to "aiding and abetting bandits." The
statement also affirmed that Chechen fighters taken prisoner after the
26 September fighting in Galashki have testified that they entered
Russia from Georgia's Pankisi Gorge, and that their band included
Georgian nationals and foreign mercenaries. This is the first time that
Moscow has formally claimed that Georgian nationals are fighting
alongside the Chechens. LF

Konstantin Zatulin, director of the CIS Institute in Moscow, said on 27
September that he categorically opposes preemptive military strikes on
Georgian territory because they "could consolidate in a negative way
the political forces around [Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze]
and would bring no benefits to anyone," strana.ru reported. Instead,
Russia should continue its information campaign showing Georgian
"support for terrorists." He added that the Georgian government is more
concerned about the long-standing problems of the separatist movements
in Abkhazia and South Ossetia than about possible Russian military
action in the Pankisi Gorge. Therefore, he concluded, the Kremlin
should intensify direct contacts with the leaders of the separatist
administrations in those regions. VY

[14] DUMA PASSES AMENDMENTS TO ANTI-MONEY LAUNDERING LEGISLATION JUST
IN TIME

The State Duma passed the law on bankruptcy in its second reading on 27
September, Russian news agencies reported. The vote was 293 in favor to
104 against, with two abstentions, according to polit.ru. The law
establishes a basis for declaring a debtor bankrupt. It had originally
been approved by both the Duma and the Federation Council last summer,
but was vetoed by President Putin on 25 July. Deputies also approved
the same day amendments to the law on money laundering in its second
and third readings, according to RosBalt. Deputies also approved in its
second reading amendments to the Administrative Code, which set fines
for violating money-laundering regulations. According to
"Kommersant-Daily" on 28 September, the international Financial Action
Task Force will meet in Paris from 9-11 October to consider -- among
other things -- removing Russia from the list of countries that do not
take sufficient legal action to prevent money laundering. JAC

Russia's Supreme Court officials believe that most oblast- and
okrug-level courts will be technically ready to introduce jury trials
by November, "Vremya MN" reported on 27 September. First Deputy General
Director of the Judicial Department of the Supreme Court Vladimir
Maksimov has reported that 55 of 102 Russian courts are already
prepared and that the remaining work that needs to be done, such as
remodeling the physical layout of the courtrooms, will be completed by
the end of the year. According to the daily, Russian courts will be set
up in the same fashion as courts in the United States and in the
Canadian province of Ontario. For example, each juror has been allotted
up to 1 cubic meter. JAC

State Duma by-elections in a single-mandate district in Omsk Oblast
failed on 29 September because of insufficient voter turnout, Interfax
reported. Only 11.51 percent of eligible voters bothered to cast their
votes, rendering the ballot invalid. The election was called after the
previous deputy from that district, Aleksandr Vereteno, was killed in a
boating accident (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 23 April 2002). Vereteno's
older brother, Vladimir Vereteno, had been one of the candidates for
the mandate, as was SPS local branch head Nikolai Yefimkin, an
unemployed worker, and a pensioner. JAC

Education Minister Vladimir Filippov said on 27 September that the
level of unpaid wages owed to teachers is currently about 200 million
rubles ($6.5 million), which is the lowest level in the past 10 years,
RosBalt reported. At the same time, he said there are several regions
-- such as Koryak Autonomous Okrug and Irkutsk Oblast -- where some
educational workers have not been paid for two-three months. In an
interview with "Nezavisimaya gazeta" on 25 September, Audit Chamber
head Sergei Stepashin said that "a very serious situation" has
developed in 10 regions where the government has taken over the
collection of tobacco-excise payments. JAC

A small homemade bomb exploded in a man's pocket in a Moscow underpass
on 29 September, killing him instantly, lenta.ru reported on 30
September. No one else was injured in the incident, and police are
investigating. Also on 29 September, a man was killed and his son
injured in Tula when a wallet that they found on a bus exploded when
they opened it, gazeta.ru reported. No one else on the bus was injured.
RC

In Rostov Oblast, 37 male teenagers were arrested on 27 September for
participating in a rumble in a local park around 10:00 p.m.,
Interfax-AVN reported the next day. A group of ethnic Armenians clashed
with a "brigade of Russian National Unity," an ultranationalist group,
and police were only able to subdue the combatants after additional
police officers were called in. Meanwhile, two youths were detained on
28 September for beating up a citizen of Tajikistan on the Moscow
metro, Interfax reported. JAC

Russians are most likely to trust their relatives, according to a
survey released on 30 September by monitoring.ru. Sixty-two percent of
respondents said that they trust their relatives, and 54 percent said
that they trust their friends. President Putin came in third place with
the confidence of 28 percent of respondents. Only 8 percent trust the
Russian Orthodox Church or other religious organizations, while 5
percent trust their bosses and 4 percent trust organized-crime bosses.
RC

Commenting on 28 September on an address by Foreign Minister Vartan
Oskanian explaining Armenia's "complementary" foreign policy, of which
he was the architect, Iranian Ambassador Mohammad Farhad Koleini
implied that Armenia lacks the resources and international influence to
maintain good relations simultaneously with Russia, Iran, and the West,
RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported (see "RFE/RL Caucasus Report," Vol. 5,
No. 32, 29 September 2002). Koleini implied that instead of upgrading
its security cooperation with the United States, Armenia should work
more closely in that sphere with Tehran. Oskanian responded with an
assurance that Yerevan will not undertake any steps that could infringe
on the interests of "neighboring countries that are strategically
important to us." Speaking at a conference in the United States on 19
September, Oskanian had suggested that Armenia could help facilitate a
dialogue between the United States and Iran. LF

Oskanian also said in Yerevan on 28 September that he doubts the
present Armenian parliament will comply with an ultimatum from the
Council of Europe to abolish the existing loophole in the Criminal Code
that would allow a court to hand down the death penalty on five gunmen
currently on trial for shooting dead eight senior officials in the
Armenian parliament in 1999, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported. But he
added that the parliament to be elected in May 2003 will have a brief
window of opportunity to do so by the 12 June deadline set by the
Council of Europe (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 27 September 2002). LF

The Armenian government has decided how to settle its debts to Russia
of almost $47 million for supplies of natural gas and nuclear fuel,
RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported on 27 September. The government will
hand over to the natural-gas exporter Itera Armenia's largest cement
factory, the director of which is former Prime Minister and opposition
Hanrapetutiun party leader Aram Sargsian. To cover the debt to
Rosenergoatom for nuclear fuel, Armenia will pay half the estimated
$77.4 million it expects to receive over the next few years for exports
of electricity. LF

The U.S., French, and Russian co-chairmen of the OSCE Minsk Group
together with Russian First Deputy Foreign Minister Vyacheslav
Trubnikov met in Stepanakert on 27 September with Arkadii Ghukasian,
president of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, for further
talks aimed at paving the way to a settlement of the Karabakh conflict,
RFE/RL's Armenian Service reported. Ghukasian told the mediators there
is little chance of reaching a permanent peace agreement as long as
representatives of the enclave are excluded from bilateral talks on the
issue between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Ghukasian's press office said the
co-chairs congratulated him on his re-election seven weeks ago, but
Turan quoted Trubnikov as saying in Baku the following day that
Armenian media reports that they had done so were untrue. LF

From Stepanakert the co-chairs and Trubnikov traveled to Baku where
they met on 28 September with Azerbaijani President Heidar Aliev,
Foreign Minister Vilayat Quliev, and Defense Minister Colonel General
Safar Abiev, Western news agencies reported. Aliev told the co-chairs
that during their four-hour meeting in Sadarak on 14 August, his
Armenian counterpart Robert Kocharian rejected Aliev's offer to open
railway communication from Baku via the Azerbaijani exclave of
Nakhichevan to Yerevan in exchange for the withdrawal of Armenian
forces from four occupied districts contiguous to Nagorno-Karabakh,
Turan and Reuters reported. Aliev quoted Kocharian as saying that if
Azerbaijan wants a rail link with Nakhichevan it can build one via
Georgia. LF

During what Reuters termed his "ill-tempered" meeting with the Minsk
Group co-chairs, President Aliev also warned that the population of
Azerbaijan is fast losing hope that the Karabakh conflict can be
resolved peacefully and "is coming to the view that we have to recover
our land ourselves by whatever means necessary." As on several previous
visits by the co-chairs, Aliev accused the OSCE of having failed to
make any progress over the past decade toward resolving the conflict.
He again accused Kocharian of reneging on an agreement reached in Paris
in March 2001 (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 16 June 2002), and criticized the
international community for failing to formally condemn Armenia's
occupation of Azerbaijani territory. LF

Addressing the Georgian parliament on 27 September, Foreign Minister
Irakli Menagharishvili said the ongoing anticrime and antiterrorism
operation in the Pankisi Gorge is intended "to ensure that there are no
threats to Russia from Georgian territory," Interfax reported. Also on
27 September, Georgian Interior Minister Koba Narchemashvili said the
Georgian authorities "are in full control" of the Pankisi Gorge and
that the "active phase" of the operation is drawing to a close,
Interfax reported. LF

[28] GEORGIAN PRESIDENT AFFIRMS READINESS TO MEET WITH ABKHAZ
LEADERSHIP

On 27 September, the ninth anniversary of the fall of Sukhum to Abkhaz
forces that marked the end of the 13-month war, Eduard Shevardnadze
said he is ready to meet with the de facto government of Abkhazia to
discuss a settlement of the conflict, Interfax and Caucasus Press
reported. He said Georgia is determined to resolve the conflict and
expressed the hope that the Abkhaz will show readiness to compromise.
The same day, Shevardnadze visited the grave of his erstwhile protege,
former Abkhaz Council of Ministers Chairman Zhiuli Shartava, whom the
Abkhaz reportedly executed shortly before the fall of Sukhum. LF

Speaking on Adjar State Television on 30 September, State Council
Chairman Aslan Abashidze denied that he and former Georgian
intelligence chief Igor Giorgadze are plotting a coup d'etat in
Georgia, Caucasus Press reported. On 27 September, the first channel of
Georgian state television broadcast what it said was a transcript of a
telephone conversation in which Giorgadze, who fled Georgia in 1995,
discussed the coup plans with an unknown person in Georgia. A photo of
Abashidze was superimposed during the broadcast of that transcript.
Abashidze threatened unspecified action against the Georgian
leadership. LF

The Kazakh Defense Ministry press service on 27 September rejected as
untrue media reports that the U.S. Air Force plans to upgrade the
military airfield at Lugovoi in southern Kazakhstan's Zhambyl Oblast,
Interfax reported. But the press service at the same time confirmed
that the U.S. will provide Kazakhstan with an unspecified number of
multipurpose helicopters and Humvees. The Almaty-based newspaper
"Panorama" on 9 August quoted senior Defense Ministry official Major
General Bulat Sembinov as saying that the military hardware in question
is worth "several dozen million dollars," and is being donated within
the parameters of the Partnership for Peace program. LF

[31] KYRGYZ GOVERNMENT CREATES WORKING GROUP TO RESTRUCTURE FOREIGN
DEBT

Kyrgyzstan's government has set up a special group comprising
representatives of the Finance Ministry, the presidential and
government administrations, and the National Bank to work on
restructuring the country's foreign debt, RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau
reported on 27 September. The total debt currently amounts to $1.416
billion, down from $1.424 billion in early May. LF

Turkmen President Saparmurat Niyazov and Greg Barton, chairman of the
board of Caterpillar Inc., signed an agreement in Ashgabat on 27
September under which between 2002-2010 Caterpillar will supply
annually up to 200 excavators, bulldozers and other machines for
highway and pipeline construction, Interfax and turkmenistan.ru
reported. LF

An Iraqi delegation headed by Deputy Premier and Minister for Military
Industrialization Abd-al-Tawwab Abdallah al-Mullah Huwaysh arrived in
Minsk on 29 September on a four-day official visit, Belapan reported.
According to the Belarusian Foreign Ministry press service, the
delegation includes representatives from Iraq's ministries of industry,
health, and transport. The delegation is to hold talks with Belarusian
officials within the framework of the Belarusian-Iraqi Commission for
Trade and Economic Development. The delegation also will be received by
President Alyaksandr Lukashenka and visit several Belarusian companies.
The press service noted that special emphasis during the visit will be
placed on humanitarian issues. In particular, Belarus will provide Iraq
with free medical equipment and medicines while Belarusian surgeons
will provide their services to Iraqi patients, the press service added.
JM

Belarus's Foreign Ministry has reacted angrily to last week's
resolution of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe
(PACE) saying that "the democratization process in Belarus appears to
stagnate" and that "Belarus shows severe democratic deficits and it
does not yet meet the Council of Europe's relevant standards," Belapan
reported on 27 September. "[PACE] has proved unable to depart from the
Cold War-type line of behavior with regard to our country, which was
imposed on [PACE] by the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly," the ministry
said in a statement. "While speaking about the deficit of democracy in
the Republic of Belarus, which is not a member of he Council of
Europe...PACE deliberately overlooks the situation in a number of
countries [which are] members of the Council of Europe, where
democratic and European standards are totally absent and which provide
support for terrorism and shelter to terrorists," the ministry added.
PACE suspended Belarus's special-guest status in 1997. JM

Police arrested five participants in an authorized rally in downtown
Minsk on 29 September, Belapan reported. The rally was attended by some
100 activists of the Conservative Christian Party (KKhP) and the
unregistered group called the Belarusian National Liberation Movement.
KKhP leader Zyanon Paznyak, who is in exile in Poland, urged
Belarusians in a letter read at the rally to form committees to defend
Belarus from what he called Russia's aggression. Demonstrators held
posters reading "No Union With Imperial Russia!" and "Russian Military
Bases Out of Belarus!" JM

Leonid Kuchma addressed the nation on the ICTV television channel on 28
September and accused the opposition of resorting to violence to unseat
him. "It is one thing to express one's dissatisfaction but another
thing to [try to] force a violent change of the power and social
system," the president said. Kuchma called for an end to opposition
protests, saying that previous demonstrations have damaged Ukraine's
image and stall social progress. "[Opposition leaders] must think about
whether to discharge the responsibilities for which they were elected
by some 50 million citizens during the elections, or to execute the
demands of close to 50,000 people who participated in nationwide
demonstrations," he noted, adding that "I refuse categorically to
resign...because I was elected by the people as the head of state and I
feel fully responsible for all that happens in the country." Kuchma did
not mention the allegations that Ukraine may have illegally sold a
Kolchuga radar system to Iraq. JM

Kuchma also charged that opposition lawmakers are sabotaging the
ongoing parliamentary session by refusing to participate in voting (see
"RFE/RL Newsline," 26 and 27 September 2002). He castigated them for
failing last week to support a law on money laundering, and suggested
that Ukraine's international image may be severely damaged and
international organizations may impose sanctions against Ukraine
because of this failure. He also lashed out at opposition legislators
for not voting on a bill that would provide assistance to the families
of handicapped persons. Kuchma praised the recent effort of nine
pro-presidential groups to create a parliamentary majority numbering
226 deputies. JM

Speaking in Chernihiv on 28 September, President Kuchma said the recent
opposition protests negatively affected the economy, UNIAN reported.
"[Only] 15,000 people took to the streets in Kyiv and the same amount
in other cities, but this has already caused enterprises to work worse.
We have seen [the consequences] in tax [collection]," Kuchma noted.
"Every...entrepreneur asks himself: What will happen tomorrow? It is
natural that entrepreneurs are afraid that [Communist Party leader
Petro] Symonenko or [Socialist Party leader Oleksandr] Moroz will come
[to power] and abolish private ownership," the president added. JM

A Ukrainian "leading government official" has told RFE/RL's Ukrainian
Service on condition of anonymity that it was not Ukraine but Russia
that sold Kolchuga radar systems to Iraq, RFE/RL's Ukrainian Service
reported on 27 September. He confirmed that a conversation about
selling Kolchugas to Iraq actually took place in President Leonid
Kuchma's office (see "RFE/RL Poland, Belarus, and Ukraine Report," 23
April 2002), but that later "the Russians stepped in and sold their
radar systems to Baghdad." JM

The Central Association of Estonian Employers decided on 27 September
to establish a representation of Estonian entrepreneurs in Brussels,
ETA reported. The association believes that it will be better able to
protect the interests of Estonian employers after that country becomes
a member of the European Union by becoming a more active participant in
the Union of Industrial and Employer's Confederations of Europe
(UNICE). The association intends to cooperate with the Estonian
Enterprising Promotion Foundation (EEPF) as well as the Estonian
Chamber of Commerce and Industry in creating the representation, as
association head Tiit Laja believes it makes no sense for each of them
to open separate offices. The representation could occupy part of the
building that Estonia is buying to house its officials in Brussels. The
EEPF has already opened representations in Sweden, Germany, Finland,
Great Britain, and Russia (Moscow and St. Petersburg) to help Estonian
businessmen find contacts. SG

The World Federation of Free Latvians and the Latvian Transatlantic
Organization held a conference on "Societal Integration and Latvian
Security" in Riga on 27 September in order to promote a more cohesive
civil society by involving representatives of ethnic minorities in
discussions on Latvia's security policy, LETA reported. Foreign
Minister Indulis Berzins, Defense Minister Girts Valdis Kristovskis,
and U.S. NATO Committee board member Sally Painter spoke at the
conference. It had four panel discussions: the Russian language media
in Latvia and NATO, nongovernmental organizations of national
minorities and NATO, relations between Latvia, Russia, and NATO in the
context of national minorities, and society integration, NATO and
Latvia's security as seen by the country's political parties. SG

Some 150 heads of Yukos subsidiaries and high-level managers attended
an open sitting of the Yukos board in Vilnius on 28 September devoted
to its international business projects, "Lietuvos rytas" reported on 30
September. President Valdas Adamkus told the meeting that Lithuania is
ready to cooperate with Yukos and that he hopes the company's
activities will be transparent and profitable. Yukos Chairman Mikhail
Khodorkovskii flew to Lithuania two days earlier and inspected the oil
terminals at Butinge and Klaipeda. On 27 September he visited the
Mazeikiai oil refinery where he met with Prime Minister Algirdas
Brazauskas. Khodorkovskii said that he expects Mazeikiai Nafta to
become a profitable company which will play an important role in
helping Yukos expand its operations to the West. Yukos Vice President
Mikhail Brudno predicted that in the future Yukos will export about 45
million tons of oil per year to Europe and the capacities of the
refinery and the oil terminals will be used to full capacity. SG

Prime Minister Leszek Miller said on 28 September that the referendum
on Poland's entry into the European Union could take place on
(Sunday)11 May 2003, Polish media reported. "In general, this is a very
good term, but determining it now is rather premature, since it is
first necessary to conclude EU negotiations," President Aleksander
Kwasniewski commented. JM

A congress of the Solidarity trade union in Gdansk on 27 September
elected 47-year-old Janusz Sniadek as the chairman of Solidarity,
Polish media reported. Sniadek was elected after the previous
Solidarity leader, Marian Krzaklewski, withdrew from the ballot
following four abortive election rounds. Sniadek, a Solidarity member
since 1981, was Krzaklewski's deputy and the head of the Solidarity
Gdansk region. "The most important thing now is to change the face of
the union, to take off its political face," Sniadek told journalists
after his election. JM

The Sejm on 27 September voted by 243-138 to reject a motion of no
confidence in Deputy Prime Minister and Infrastructure Minister Marek
Pol, PAP reported. At least 231 votes were needed to oust Pol. The
no-confidence motion was lodged by the opposition Law and Justice and
Civic Platform. The opposition has recently criticized Pol for his
proposal to introduce road-toll fees in Poland. The opposition also
charged Pol with incompetence in negotiations on gas supplies with
Russia and blamed him for the introduction of 22 percent value-added
taxes in the construction industry, one of the highest rates in Europe.
JM

"We've been watching what is happening in Ukraine not only with
interest, but also with concern, since there is a growing risk of
political instability there," Foreign Minister Wlodzimierz Cimoszewicz
said on Polish Radio on 27 September. Commenting on the U.S. claims
that Ukraine may have sold radar systems to Iraq, Cimoszewicz said that
he has advised his Ukrainian counterpart to "treat this situation with
utmost seriousness." Meanwhile, President Aleksander Kwasniewski said
the same day that Kyiv's decision to invite UN inspectors to clarify
the allegations regarding the radar sale was appropriate. Kwasniewski
also said he is in favor of dialogue between President Leonid Kuchma
and the opposition in the current political crisis in Ukraine. "The
worst scenario for Ukraine would be murky water and tensions that last
for a long time and which in the end mean a waste of time," Kwasniewski
noted. JM

In a statement released on 30 September, RFE/RL President Thomas Dine
said that after 51 years of "devotion in promoting freedom and
democracy," the end of broadcasting by the organization's Czech
Service, Radio Svobodna Evropa (RSE), is a "sad event." But he added
that "looking back, RFE/RL takes great pride and pleasure in the
enormous effort of this service in disseminating truthful news and
information to the Czech and Slovak peoples" and to the "great impact"
produced by the broadcasts "over the course of half a century." Dine
said that RSE provided "accurate news and information" during the
dramatic days of the Cold War and the Prague Spring and provided
on-the-spot reporting of the fall of the Berlin Wall and the end of
communism. He said the "eloquent pleas" of "the newly democratic
nations of Central Europe" and "in particular Czech President Vaclav
Havel" persuaded U.S. authorities not to end RFE/RL broadcasts, adding
that Prague became "the new home" of RFE/RL in "a symbolically
important situation that remains relevant today." He said the end of
the Czech broadcasts came due to budgetary constraints and that while
there is still a need for the broadcasts in the Czech Republic, "we are
now needed more urgently elsewhere." He ended by quoting a "Mlada
fronta Dnes" reader, who wrote on 27 September that "RSE has every
right to [pass into history] with its head high because it fulfilled
its mission flawlessly." MS

Army Chief of Staff General Jiri Sedivy met in Riyadh on 28 September
with Saudi Arabian Defense Minister Khalid bin Sultan Abd al-Aziz and
with his Saudi counterpart, Saleh Benali Al Mohaya, to discuss military
cooperation and the possible purchase of Czech-made radar equipment by
the Saudis, CTK reported. On 27 September, Sedivy visited the Czech
contingent stationed in Kuwait as part of Operation Enduring Freedom.
MS

A report drafted for the European Parliament by a group of lawyers led
by German lawyer Jochen Frowein says the Benes Decrees are not
incompatible with EU legislation, CTK reported on 28 September, citing
the Austrian daily "Die Presse." According to the daily, the only
problematic issue the report mentions is the 1946 amnesty granted under
the decrees for crimes committed against the Sudeten German minority
during its expulsion from Czechoslovakia. The report is to be discussed
by the European Parliament's Foreign Affairs Commission this week.
Meanwhile, the new leadership of the far-right Austrian Freedom Party
on 27 September reiterated its threat to veto the Czech Republic's EU
membership unless the Benes Decrees are abolished and the controversial
Temelin nuclear power plant is shut down. MS

Great Britain on 27 September deported another 29 Czech asylum seekers,
CTK reported. It was the third such deportation this month. Most of the
asylum seekers in the U.K. are members of the Romany minority. MS

Initial tests have detected a third case of BSE ("mad cow disease") in
a bovine slaughtered at a farm from Deblin, near Brno, AP reported on
27 September, citing a spokesman for the Czech veterinary agency. The
spokesman said final results are due on 30 September and added that he
does not think they will be different from the initial tests. MS

President Rudolf Schuster on 27 September formally nominated Mikulas
Dzurinda, leader of the Democratic and Christian Union (SDKU), to form
the next Slovak cabinet, TASR and international news agencies reported.
Premier Dzurinda received the mandate after Movement for a Democratic
Slovakia Chairman Vladimir Meciar reported to Schuster that he has been
unable to find partners for a possible coalition. Earlier, Schuster
said he will appoint the next premier only after party leaders report
to him whether they can form a coalition. Dzurinda said the new
coalition (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 23 and 24 September 2002) will be
narrower than the outgoing one and therefore capable of making
decisions quicker and implementing them with more determination. He
said it is necessary to have the coalition in place as soon as possible
for the government to continue the reforms expected by NATO and the EU
in order to admit Slovakia into their ranks. MS

HZDS Chairman Meciar on 27 September said he has no intention of
stepping down as leader of the party, CTK reported. Earlier, the
Kosice, Presov, Bratislava, Trnava, and Banska Bystrica regional
branches of HZDS called for an extraordinary congress to vote Meciar
out of office, TASR reported. The agency cited Meciar as saying in
reaction: "If the chairman of the winning party must resign, then what
should the leaders of the other parties do?" The HZDS garnered most
votes on 20-21 September but did considerably less well than four years
earlier, losing some 350,000 votes. Pressure on Meciar could increase
ahead of a meeting of the HZDS executive body in mid-October to discuss
the election results. MS

Smer (Direction) party spokesman Marek Madaric reiterated on 28
September that his formation has no intention of coming to any
agreement with the HZDS on cooperation in the opposition, TASR
reported. Meciar said one day earlier that "sooner or later" the two
parties will be forced to work together. Madaric also said Smer will
not cooperate with the Communist Party of Slovakia (KSS). On the other
hand, KSS Chairman Jozef Sevc said his party rules out neither
cooperation with Smer and HZDS in opposition nor cooperation with
parties from the ruling coalition. MS

Social Democratic Alternative (SDA) Deputy Chairman Peter Weiss, who
headed the SDA electoral campaign, resigned on 28 September, accepting
personal responsibility for the party's failure to gain parliamentary
representation, TASR reported. SDA Chairman Milan Ftacnik and his other
deputies, Zdenko Trebula and Erika Kvapilova, also offered to resign,
but the SDA Central Board asked them to remain in office until spring
2003, when a party congress is scheduled. MS

Hungarian Socialist Party Chairman Laszlo Kovacs on 28 September said
that the time has come for the party to change its name to the
Hungarian Social Democratic Party, because "ours is truly a
social-democratic party." Kovacs told "Magyar Hirlap" that the name
change could occur in 2004, halfway between parliamentary elections. He
also stressed the importance of devising new party symbols and
suggested that the party should move from its present headquarters,
which he said evokes bitter memories. The party currently occupies the
building that was the headquarters of its communist-era predecessor,
the Socialist Workers Party. In response, FIDESZ Chairman Janos Ader
said on 29 September that "you cannot make a silk purse out of a sow's
ear." MSZ

[57] COMMISSION HEAD SAYS FORMER MEMBER OF HUNGARIAN GOVERNMENT WORKED
FOR STATE SECURITY IN '90S

Free Democrat Imre Mecs, chairman of the parliamentary commission that
investigated government officials' communist-era secret-service pasts,
told Hungarian Radio on 27 September that a member of one of the
post-1990 governments worked for the national security services formed
after that date. Mecs declined to identify which government he was
referring to, as such information is classified as a state secret. He
stressed that his commission was authorized to examine only documents
related to involvement in the secret services prior to 1990. Mecs added
that the secret services unsuccessfully attempted to recruit another
cabinet member. MSZ

Approximately 105,000 people were registered as candidates for the 20
October local elections by the 27 September deadline, slightly more
than in 1998, Hungarian media reported on 28 September. Emilia Rytko,
who heads the National Election Office, said that approximately 8,300
people will run for 3,200 mayoral posts, another 75,000 for 27,000
local-council seats, and 15,000 for some 6,000 positions in ethnic
minority organizations. More than half of the 105,000 candidates will
run as independents, she said. In 17 communities no elections will be
held, due to the absence of candidates. In those constituencies,
by-elections will be held in six months, she explained. MSZ

At a meeting of Austrian entrepreneurs in Vienna on 28 September,
former Prime Minister Viktor Orban said that Hungary's possible
accession to the EU can be resolved "either well or badly, but staying
out of the EU is not an option for the country." In an interview with
"Die Presse," Orban warned that accession could be a major
disappointment for Hungarians unless greater efforts are made to
subsidize small and medium-sized enterprises, grant credit to farmers,
and increase average incomes. Asked whether he has turned from a firm
supporter of accession to an anti-EU stance, Orban said "I am tough,
but pro-EU." MSZ

SOUTHEASTERN EUROPE

[60] KOSTUNICA AND LABUS TO FACE EACH OTHER IN SERBIAN PRESIDENTIAL
RUNOFF...

About 55 percent of eligible voters cast their ballots in a field of 11
candidates in the Serbian presidential race on 29 September,
international and Serbian media reported. Many observers had feared
that voter apathy and heavy rain could have led to less than 50 percent
of the eligible voters going to the polls, which would have made the
vote invalid. Yugoslav President Vojislav Kostunica of the Democratic
Party of Serbia (DSS) led with 31.3 percent, according to early
projections. His main rival, Yugoslav Deputy Prime Minister Miroljub
Labus, received 27.7 percent and will face Kostunica in a runoff on 13
October. Labus is backed by Serbian Prime Minister Zoran Djindjic and
many of his allies in the governing Democratic Opposition of Serbia
(DOS) coalition. Vojislav Seselj of the Serbian Radical Party (SRS)
made a surprisingly strong showing by taking 22.6 percent of the vote
to finish third. PM

Seselj's strength in the 29 September Serbian presidential elections
came from hard-line nationalists and persons opposed to market-oriented
economic reforms, many international and Serbian media noted. Some
commentators expressed shock that he did so well, while others stressed
that he is now out of the race. He led the balloting in southern
Serbia, while Kostunica polled first in the central Serbian heartland,
the BBC's Serbian Service reported. Labus took pride of place in
Vojvodina, which many observers consider the most European-oriented
part of Serbia. Kostunica had hoped for a first-ballot victory, and
many observers had expected him to have a wider lead over Labus than he
did. But Kostunica seems likely to pick up most of Seselj's voters in
the second round, which makes the Yugoslav president a clear favorite.
For his part, Labus told AP in Belgrade: "I started from zero, and I
collected 1 million votes. The game is not over. This was only the
first half." PM

The first session of the legislature elected on 15 September will take
place on 3 October, parliamentary speaker Stojan Andov said in Skopje
on 27 September, dpa reported. The Social Democratic Union (SDSM)
currently has 60 out of 120 seats, but a repeat of voting in two places
on 29 September could result in its winning an additional seat. Its
rival, the Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organization (VMRO-DPMNE),
currently has 33 seats. The most powerful ethnic Albanian party is the
Democratic Union for Integration (BDI), which is led by former
guerrilla leader Ali Ahmeti and has 16 seats. PM

Speaking after a meeting with President Boris Trajkovski on 27
September, NATO's Crisis Management and Operations Directorate head,
Robert Serry, said the two discussed the extension of the mandate for
NATO Operation Amber Fox, Macedonian media reported (see "RFE/RL
Newsline," 19 September 2002, and "RFE/RL Balkan Report," 3 May and 9
August 2002). Serry stressed that he is upbeat about NATO's future role
in Macedonia, an issue he discussed with leaders of the SDSM, which
will head the next government. For his part, SDSM Deputy Chairman Vlado
Buckovski said, "We will ask for an extension of the NATO mission, and
we expect the mandate to be extended for three months, with the
possibility of an additional three-month extension." The current
mandate expires on 26 October. UB

Former President Slobodan Milosevic said in The Hague on 27 September
that the 1995 Srebrenica massacre was the result not of a campaign by
Bosnian Serb forces but of a conspiracy between NATO and Muslim leaders
to discredit the Serbian side, the "Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung"
reported. Milosevic argued that French intelligence agents organized
the plot and that a French-controlled unit operating within Bosnian
Serb forces carried out the killings. He denied that Belgrade or the
Bosnian Serb civilian and military leaderships had anything to do with
the murders. A recent Bosnian Serb report denied that any massacre took
place, arguing that those killed died during or as a result of combat
(see "RFE/RL Balkan Report," 6 September 2002). PM

An unnamed "government source" told Reuters in Zagreb on 27 September
that the authorities want to launch a legal challenge to the recent
indictment of former General Janko Bobetko by the war crimes tribunal
in The Hague (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 27 September 2002). The source
added that "the government has forwarded through diplomatic channels a
request to file an interlocutory complaint against the arrest
warrant.... In other words, we are asking the tribunal to allow us to
complain against the indictment," which is very unpopular in Croatia.
The United States has called on the government to extradite Bobetko,
who is widely regarded as one of the architects of the 1991-95 war of
independence against Belgrade. PM

Two unknown persons attacked and seriously injured Bozo Prka, who heads
Privredna Banka, the second largest bank in Croatia, as he left his
Zagreb home on 30 September, dpa reported. The motive for the attack is
not clear. PM

A spokesperson for the UN civilian administration in Kosova (UNMIK)
said in Prishtina on 29 September that UN police have seized 600
kilograms of marijuana with a street value of about $2 million, Reuters
reported. This is the largest drug bust in Kosova since UNMIK took over
in 1999. At least one ethnic Albanian man was arrested in Mitrovica in
conjunction with the incident. Police said that they doubt that the
marijuana was grown in Kosova and are not sure where it was heading. PM

Fatos Nano told "RFE/RL Newsline" in Tirana on 27 September that a
democratic and peaceful Serbia is essential for Albania's entrance into
European institutions. He added that Djindjic is a more cooperative
partner for Albania than is Kostunica. Albanian businessmen have
generally had good experience dealing with Serbs and use Montenegro as
a route to enter the Serbian market. Nano said that unnamed members of
a recent Croatian parliamentary delegation called on Albania to work
with Croatia at the expense of contacts with Serbia. He stressed that
those individuals spoke without any official authorization and that his
government will have none of any such project. Nano called on Western
countries not to forget the roles that Albania played in helping
Montenegrin President Milo Djukanovic defy Milosevic in the second half
of the 1990s and in stabilizing the situation in Macedonia in 2001. The
prime minister noted that just as Albania's main political parties are
learning to "share sovereignty" with each other, his country will need
to "share sovereignty" with its neighbors and European partners as it
proceeds toward integration into European institutions. PM

Prime Minister Adrian Nastase continues to be the country's most
trusted politician, and his Social Democratic Party (PSD) continues to
lead the field in party preferences, according to an IMAS poll widely
commented on in the media on 30 September. According to the daily
"Ziua," 44.4 percent of respondents to the IMAS survey said they trust
the premier. He was closely followed by Foreign Minister Mircea Geoana
(43.8 percent) and by Democratic Party Chairman Traian Basescu (41.3
percent). President Ion Iliescu polled 39.7 percent, National Liberal
Party (PNL) Chairman Theodor Stolojan 33.7 percent, and Greater Romania
Party (PRM) leader Corneliu Vadim Tudor 19.7 percent. The poll shows
the PRM has lost three percentage points within one month and is now
backed by 16.2 percent of the electorate. It continues, however, to
place a distant second to the PSD (47.4 percent) in party preference.
Third is the PNL (14.6 percent), followed by the Democrats (9.7
percent) and the Hungarian Democratic Federation of Romania (6.5
percent). MS

[70] ROMANIAN PREMIER SAYS MORATORIUM ON INTERNATIONAL ADOPTIONS WILL
BE EXTENDED

Premier Nastase said in Bucharest after a meeting with the EU
rapporteur on Romania, Baroness Emma Nicholson, that the moratorium
imposed by his cabinet in October 2001 on international adoptions will
be prolonged, RFE/RL's Bucharest bureau reported. Nastase said the ban
will be lifted only after parliament passes a package of four laws
aimed at protecting adopted children and added that international
adoption will be allowed only as a "last resort." He said Romania does
not want "to transform children into merchandise on sale on Internet."
Nicholson praised the decision and said, "Romania must resist
international pressure [to renew adoptions] exercised by countries
outside Europe" -- an allusion to the United States. She said that
after the new Romanian laws are in place, "international adoptions
might become unnecessary, as [the legislation will encourage domestic
adoptions and] the family remains the basic unit of society." MS

PRM Chairman Tudor on 27 September announced that PRM representatives
to the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) Ilie
Ilascu and Daniel Ionescu have submitted two Moldova-related draft
resolutions to PACE, Romanian Television reported. The first resolution
condemns the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe's
(OSCE) proposals to solve the Transdniester conflict on the basis of
Moldova's federalization. It also calls for the urgent convocation of
an international conference on the Transdniester and for the
implementation of the OSCE 1999 Istanbul summit decision on the
withdrawal of Russian troops from the separatist region. The second
resolution condemns the "blatant infringement on human rights" in the
Transdniester and calls for the immediate liberation of the three
members of the Ilascu group who are still being detained in Tiraspol.
MS

Contrary to what ITAR-TASS reported on 26 September, reports from
Tiraspol the next day said an agreement has been signed between the
Russian delegation headed by Deputy Defense Minister Vladimir Isakov
and separatist leader Igor Smirnov (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 27 September
2002). The agreement stipulates that the withdrawal of Russian military
equipment will be resumed and that Moscow will write off $100 million
of the debt owed by the separatists for the delivery of Russian gas.
Infotag quoted Smirnov as saying he is "satisfied" with the agreement
and that, as a guarantor-country, Russia must ensure the freedom of
Transdniester foreign trade "in particular in what concerns the
[international] recognition of [customs] certificates of our goods." He
said Transdniester has the right to count on Russia's support in
lifting the "economic blockade" imposed on it after Moldova annulled
Tiraspol's right to issue customs certificates. According to Smirnov,
Tiraspol has conditioned the implementation of the agreement on Russia
ensuring the "blockade" is lifted. MS

PACE decided on 27 September to continue monitoring Moldova with
permanent representation in Chisinau, Romanian Radio reported. The same
day, the joint Moldova-EU cooperation committee agreed to continue and
strengthen cooperation between the two sides. It also called for
establishing a "more realistic" framework for cooperation that would be
implemented after the EU's eastward expansion and lead to a closer
"political dialogue" and to "opening the door for Moldova's future
accession to the EU." The committee said a permanent EU mission should
be established in Chisinau to promote political dialogue. It also said
negotiations should start for a free-trade agreement between the
European Union and Moldova. The committee said Moldova should
accelerate economic reforms and improve the business climate, as well
as intensify budgetary controls, the struggle against corruption,
regional cooperation, and participation in the Balkan Stability Pact.
The committee said that finding a solution to the Transdniester
conflict is a "key element" in promoting economic prosperity and
political stability, and called for "rapid measures" to ensure this
goal "while fully respecting Moldova's sovereignty and territorial
integrity." MS

The Popular Party Christian Democratic (PPCD) on 28 September announced
it has decided to cancel the antigovernment rally planned for 6
October, RFE/RL's Chisinau bureau reported. The PPCD said it is
canceling the rally to signal "satisfaction" with PACE and the joint
Moldova-EU committee resolutions, in the elaboration of which its
leaders had "fully contributed." But it warned that the rallies will be
resumed if the PACE resolution (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 27 September
2002) and the committee's recommendations are not immediately
implemented. MS

Finance Minister Milen Velchev told journalists in Washington on 28
September that Bulgaria hopes to amend an existing agreement with the
International Monetary Fund (IMF), BTA reported. Velchev said that
Bulgaria needs less and less financial support from the IMF. "It would
be best if the country has the security of being able to use IMF
funding, without having the tranches [released] on a regular basis and
then having to pay interest on them," Velchev said. According to
Bulgaria's proposal, the IMF would make funding available, but Bulgaria
would use it only if absolutely necessary. Financial experts noted that
the IMF has a similar agreement with the Czech Republic. In other news,
the September issue of "Euromoney" magazine named Velchev "Finance
Minister of the Year." UB

After his return from an eight-day trip to Egypt, Syria, and Lebanon,
Socialist Party (BSP) Chairman Sergey Stanishev said in an interview
with the private bTV that Bulgaria should not forget its old allies in
the Arab world, mediapool.bg reported on 29 September. "The aim of the
BSP delegation's journey was give a new impetus to the relations [with
the Arab countries] and to show our partners that the BSP will play an
active part in all areas of bilateral relations," Stanishev said.
Stanishev met during his trip with Syrian President Bashar Assad as
well as with Zakharia Ismail, the deputy secretary-general of the Arab
League. UB

Speaking at a meeting of government and border police representatives,
mass media, and the UNHCR at the Black Sea resort of Sozopol on 29
September, Daniela Veleva of the State Refugee Agency said Bulgaria
needs to build two transit centers for asylum seekers, BTA reported.
The refugee centers would be built at Sofia Airport and the Kapitan
Andreevo border checkpoint on the Turkish-Bulgarian border to
supplement existing facilities. UNHCR Representative in Bulgaria Luise
Druke noted that over the first seven months of 2002 more than 2,000
foreigners applied for refugee status in Bulgaria. Most refugees came
from Iraq, Iran, and the former Soviet republics in Central Asia. Druke
added that some 1,500 Bulgarian citizens, most of them Roma, received
refugee status abroad over that time -- including 418 in Sweden, 219 in
Norway, 269 in Switzerland, 129 in Canada, and 29 in the United States.
Druke said that something is wrong when a country that is seeking EU
membership has so many of its citizens asking for refugee status. UB

When Josef Stalin sought to expand the Soviet Union's cotton production
in the 1930s, resulting in the construction of huge canals in Central
Asia to make possible the irrigation of vast new lands, it was already
apparent that the total water supply of the region was finite and would
at some point put a stop to the expansion of irrigated agriculture.

Soviet scientists assigned to find ways to overcome this limitation
proposed taking another look at a scheme suggested several decades
earlier -- to bring water from outside the region. More specifically,
the idea to reverse the flow of certain Siberian rivers in order to
provide irrigation to Central Asia was discussed and abandoned as being
too costly as well as not immediately necessary. In the early 1980s,
when Soviet water specialists put a date toward the end of the century
on the exhaustion of undistributed water supplies within the Central
Asian region, the river-reversal scheme was again brought out for
serious consideration. Again it fell victim to the enormous costs
involved -- it was quickly cancelled soon after Mikhail Gorbachev came
to power in March 1985 and launched his economy drive -- as well as
increasingly vocal Siberian opposition to losing that region's water to
Central Asia.

The dissolution of the USSR seemed to guarantee that the scheme was
finally defunct -- if the Siberians had opposed the scheme in the name
of regional interests when they and the Central Asians were part of the
same country, what chance was there that the Russian Federation would
agree to a massive environmental disruption in order to provide water
to what were now foreign countries? Especially when there was a good
chance that Russia would be asked to pay at least part of the cost of
implementing the scheme. The Russian textile industry would presumably
benefit, but this was unlikely to justify the huge expense, even if the
country had had the money to spend.

Given these considerations, it was somewhat surprising when at the
beginning of the new century Uzbek President Islam Karimov resurrected
the river-diversion scheme. His reasons for doing so were clear.
Uzbekistan had had some modest success in obtaining funding from
international donor agencies, particularly the World Bank, for projects
to "save" the Aral Sea, which was dying as a result of water from its
feeder rivers being diverted to existing irrigation systems. In order
to provide additional agricultural land for Uzbekistan's rapidly
growing population and, it was hoped, reduce the social -- and,
potentially, political tensions generated by massive unemployment, more
water had to be found. Some of the schemes proposed after the
abandoning of the river-diversion scheme in the 1980s, including
acceleration of the melt rate of Tajikistan's glaciers and
reconstruction of existing irrigation systems that were highly
inefficient, had proved either unworkable or unaffordable.

The situation was complicated by the fact that Uzbekistan's neighbors
were now independent states. It was no longer possible for the Uzbeks,
with Moscow's backing, to blow up a dam in Kyrgyzstan when Uzbekistan's
need for water to grow cotton was considered to take priority over
Kyrgyzstan's need for water to generate electricity. Tensions over
regional water management began to develop between the "upstream"
countries, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, and the "downstream" ones,
particularly Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Kazakhstan, although
technically a downstream state, is not as dependent on water sources
originating outside its boundaries as are Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.
Those two are completely dependent on rivers that arise in Tajikistan,
Kyrgyzstan, or Afghanistan. The recent three-year drought in the
Central Asian region (that may or may not have ended with the rains of
spring 2002) has underscored the need for additional water supplies.

Both Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have plans to utilize more of their own
water supplies for their own benefit, both in developing their
hydropower industries and expanding agriculture to provide needed
employment. Kyrgyzstan has proposed to Uzbekistan a scheme to exchange
Kyrgyz water for Uzbek gas, since for a number of years Uzbekistan has
been in the habit of shutting off the gas supply to Kyrgyzstan for
nonpayment of the Kyrgyz gas bill. But the Uzbek side has consistently
rejected any such exchange.

At the same time, Turkmenistan's President Saparmurat Niyazov has
produced an ambitious economic and social development that foresees the
doubling of his country's cotton production within 10 years. It is
understandable that Uzbekistan, the economy of which is still far too
heavily dependent on its cotton exports, has asked where the water for
Niyazov's scheme is to come from. Supposedly, a water-sharing plan has
been agreed by the two countries that would allay Uzbek fears but would
likely finish off the Aral Sea.

As of 2002, a new claimant to the water of Central Asia has emerged on
the scene; namely, Afghanistan. In order to rebuild and further develop
its agriculture, the northern part of that country will need to utilize
the rivers that feed the Amu-Darya River from the Afghan side, thereby
reducing the amount available to Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. It was in
recognition of Afghanistan's water needs that Japanese water
specialists recently proposed abandoning efforts to maintain the
existence of the Aral Sea and to use all the water of the Aral's feeder
rivers for the benefit of the riparian states of Central Asia,
including Afghanistan. That proposal set off lengthy discussions in the
media, particularly in Kazakhstan, of the environmental and
philosophical significance of a decision to let the Aral die.

This is the context in which Uzbekistan has again resurrected the old
scheme to divert Siberian rivers to Central Asia. What remains unclear,
in the discussions that have been reported so far, is how the scheme
could be realistically financed and how the Russian Federation, and
possibly Kazakhstan as well, could be persuaded to accept it. Certainly
the costs now would be far greater than they would have been in the
1980s. Perhaps Karimov has hopes of gaining the support, financial as
well as moral, of his new friends in the West by presenting the scheme
as a measure against social instability. The World Bank's
representative in Tashkent has, however, already given the river
diversion scheme the thumbs down.

Bess A. Brown is an independent analyst specializing in political and
economic developments in Central Asia.