Jordan Jefferson has received an indefinite suspension for his part in a bar brawl. (AP Photo)

Why we know we’re right: Because in the big, bad SEC, it’s all about the lines of scrimmage. It’s where you control the game and control your destiny. It has been that way throughout the BCS era, and it won’t change now. The Tigers are so good at the point of attack, it can overcome the biggest deficiency of all: uncertainty at the quarterback spot. Then again, it’s not like the offense is desperate for playmakers. TB Spencer Ware is a budding star, and WR Rueben Randle is a terrific deep threat.

Why we might be wrong: In a word, quarterback. There’s no telling how long Jordan Jefferson will be suspended, and he’s the guy the staff pinned the entire season on not so long ago. Now coach Les Miles is talking about backup Jarrett Lee being excited to have the kind of “season” he has waited for his entire career. That doesn’t sound like Jefferson is coming back any time soon.

Our confidence level in this pick: Shaky. Who knows how the sudden change at the important position – a position that demands leadership and stability – will affect the team? Lee is best known for his seven interceptions returned for touchdowns in his freshman season (2008), but he has also made some big throws for the Tigers over the last three years. LSU doesn’t beat Florida, Alabama or Tennessee last year without Lee’s passing.

Coach’s job security: Rock solid. Les Miles received a contract extension a few days ago, and isn’t going anywhere. He has twice turned down his alma mater Michigan, and loves Baton Rouge. If the Tigers don’t live up to expectations, there will be grousing (what’s new?), but he has clearly banked significant capital in the job.

Judgment day: Nov. 5, vs. Alabama. The game of the season in the SEC and the nation. Miles has had success against Alabama (4-2), and hasn’t let the hoopla of coaching against Tide coach Nick Saban – still beloved in Baton Rouge after leading the Tigers to the 2003 BCS national title – affect his job or the way his team prepares for Alabama.