24 November 2013

ETLJB
24 November 2013 - The East Timorese NGO, Belun, that monitors violence in the country says that while it has recorded a gradual decrease of violence in Timor-Leste, increased
weapons circulation, gambling drug and alcohol abuse in communities continue to threaten
long-term stability with youth as the leading instigators of violence.

Belun's latest conflict potential analysis report covers the period February - May 2013 and provides comparative a analysis of the security situation in Timor-Leste a year after the 2012 elections and visualizes incident data in a conflict infographic. While it has been some time since the reporting period, this Conflict Potential Analysis provides valuable material about the circumstances in Timor-Leste directly after the withdrawal of the UN Peace Keeping Forces.

A comparison to the same period in 2012 has shown a sharp increase in weapons circulating in communities. Other violence multipliers, such as gambling, alcohol and drug abuse are also on the rise.

During this reporting period, with high district-by-district variability, the PNTL on average responded to 61% of incidents recorded across the country, an increase by 5% from October 2012 - January 2013. These figures demonstrate that PNTL continue to be active responders to incidents, with rates returning to levels close to those observed during the electoral period (60% from Feb-May 2012).

Young people continue to rate as the highest group of initiators of violent incidents in Timor-Leste - responsible for 35% of incidents during this period.

Disclaimer: The EWER system is generously supported by the European Union through the Instrument for Stability, and the GIZ Peace Fund on behalf of BMZ (the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development) through the German-Timorese Development Cooperation together with the State Secretariat of Youth and Sport.

Information provided by Belun through the EWER Program is provided as a guide only. All incidents are verified to the extent possible. Belun does not accept liability for incorrect data, or decisions arising from the use of the data. Belun asserts that they are the sole authors of this report and that the ideas, opinions and commentary contained within are not intended to reflect or represent those of the the Government of Germany, GIZ, the European Union or the Government of Timor-Leste. Source: Belun 23/11/2013 Edited by Warren L. Wright