Between Novorossiisk and Anapa is where the proposed South Stream gas pipeline will dive into the Black Sea, on its way over to Bulgaria. Here is one map of its route, which takes in part of Turkish territory:

About half of Russia's gas exports to Europe go through the Ukraine (and even the South Stream crosses a bit of the extreme eastern part of Ukraine, but a little territorial snipping - a land purchase, maybe? - could put that right).

So it is very useful to have a route that avoids Ukraine and Belarus; and some of the contracts were signed last Friday. Even then, it would be most inconvenient if the Ukraine accidentally did anything off the shore of Crimea that disrupted the new supply route, but fortunately it looks as if that danger has been foreseen and forestalled.

A spur of the South Stream is planned to run through Greece, which was the subject of some little local difficulty a while back. EU legislation forbids Gazprom from buying Greek gas pipelines, so step forward a Russian cat's paw outfit called Sintez to do the job instead, according to the OilPrice website last year.

What with sparkly new port facilities at Sochi and Novorossiisk, not to mention the docks at the M25-serviced Port Kavkaz on that spit of land opposite Port Crimea (see below), there will be lots of logistical support for the future increase in Black Sea Russian naval and shipping activity.

Why, a bridge only some 3 miles long - like, say, the Pensacola Bay Bridge opened as long ago as 1960 - might cross the gap so easily:

Poor, dumb President Putin! He simply can't see how he has wasted all that money developing Russian assets on the Black Sea.

Nor, to be frank, can I.

Watch for (a) destabilising tendencies in Greece and (b) a gradual rise in the commercial fortunes of Thessaloniki. And - who knows? - a revival of nostalgic sentiment among the descendants of Pontic Greeks (many of whom now speak Russian) in northern Turkey, Georgia and the Ukraine.

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2 comments:

Yes, South Stream and the newly gained Crimean ports, plus the new ones are pretty clear. Seems to me it's all the more reason not to take the army in to the Ukraine. There's sufficient blackmail as it is.

For rational people, that is. The Right Sector is not rational. It is nationalistic. Whichever scenario plays out, the ordinary people of the Ukraine will suffer yet again.