Israel doesn't have time to wait for Abbas

Amos Harel

Shvat 6, 5765

Statements made by senior Israeli officials
following the attack at the Karni crossing on Thursday night sounded as if
they had been taken from four years ago, during the days of Ehud Barak and
Yasser Arafat: "This is the Palestinian Authority's test;" "The
Palestinian security mechanisms are doing nothing;" "If they don't act,
we'll do it for them;" "There's a limit to our patience."

Once
again, Israel is waiting for firm Palestinian moves against the terror
organizations; and once again, it is pressuring foreign entities - the
United States and the European Union - to get the Palestinian leadership
to take action or at least to make promises.

Once again, the
Israeli expectations are likely to remain unfulfilled.

The next
step is known in advance: The disappointment in the Palestinians will push
the Israel Defense Forces into mounting broad offensives in the Gaza
Strip. The PA's security mechanisms may not be the primary target, but
they will be among those hit.

In recent weeks, Jerusalem fostered
many expectations of Mahmoud Abbas. Officials were impressed by his
explicit statements denouncing terror, the orderly transfer of power after
Arafat's death, the former chairman's quiet funeral, and Abbas' sweeping
election victory. But the window of opportunity has not opened up by more
than a narrow crack. Assuming Abbas plans to achieve a cease-fire with the
Palestinian opposition groups, he wants to do it in his own way and time -
through persuasive talks and quiet agreements, without aggressive steps.
The trouble is that Israel does not have time to see if he
succeeds.

Until now, Jerusalem has restricted its reactions to
isolated reprisals and concerned statements following shooting, mortar and
bomb attacks in the territories. But the Karni attack was tantamount to
the Palestinian organizations spitting in the PA's face. Meanwhile, Sderot
is bleeding now more than Kiryat Shmona in its worst days. Three of the
town's residents were killed in Karni, and then there was the Qassam
rocket attack that critically wounded a young girl there yesterday.
Sderot's list of victims is lengthening and the residents are running out
of patience.

These events have begun the countdown to a large
military operation in the strip. The IDF has been preparing for this for a
long time. When Prime Minister Ariel Sharon says the disengagement will
not take place under fire, he does not mean only the possibility of
withdrawing in coordination with the Palestinians, but also to plan B -
occupying extensive Palestinian territories to enable the IDF to prevent
short-range attacks on the settlements and the roads leading to them,
while he is busy clashing with the Israeli objectors to the disengagement
plan.

Such a move could include the north of the Gaza Strip, parts
of Khan Yunis and the territories adjacent to the Philadelphi route in
Rafah.

Sharon and Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz decided over the
weekend to close all border crossings into the Strip, to retaliate locally
to any attack on Israelis, and to resume the targeted killings. But the
continued escalation may lead to the larger operation much sooner than
planned.

Yesterday, the IDF entered the Zeitun neighborhood in the
south of Gaza City, initiated clashes with armed activists and killed five
Palestinians. Continued firing on Sderot could lead Israel to further
steps.