The world's richest man said in the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation's annual letter to donors that by 2035 -- 21 years from now -- he expects all 35 countries currently classified as "low-income" by the world bank, to reach the modest levels of income. He predicts 70 percent of nations will at least reach the level of average inflation adjusted income seen today in China, and 90 percent will reach at least the levels seen today in India.

He says that the currently impoverished countries most at risk include a handful of countries controlled by extremist political regimes like North Korea and a handful of countries with challenging geographical locations, such as the countries of war-torn Central Africa. Still he feels even these countries have hope of prosperity within a couple of decades.

In the letter he attacked the idea that charitable donations to the third world are wasted via local corruption. He points to the vital role of donations in reducing the number of nations with active polio cases from 125 in 1988 to 3 today.

He pointed skeptics to a commissioned study from his foundation and its economic partners, which was published in a special report [PDF] from The Lancet, the medical organization known for its titular prestigious peer-reviewed journal. The December report predicts that by 2035 child mortality rates will fall to those of the U.S. or UK in the 1980s -- even the rate in today's poorest nations.

He also took issue with the belief that a more prosperous third world would lead to overpopulation.

The facts are on the side of the optimists. It’s actually dangerous that people are focusing on the bad news and not seeing the progress we’ve made. It means they don’t look at the best practices, it makes them less generous.

The belief that the world is getting worse, that we can’t solve extreme poverty and disease, isn’t just mistaken. It is harmful. By almost any measure, the world is better than it has ever been. In two decades it will be better still.

Headlines in a way are what mislead you because bad news is a headline and gradual improvement is not. We almost have to take a letter like this and speak out and say, ‘Wait a minute, despite how bad we feel about what’s not yet done, we have some approaches that work.’ And the cynicism is holding us back.

If he's right that will be great news for the third world/developing world and for humanity in general.

II. No Return to Microsoft CEO Spot for Gates

While Mr. Gates had good news for charities, he had not so good news for Microsoft -- he's not coming back, despite the company's struggles.

Mr. Gates steered the company through years of record growth, establishing Windows as the dominant computer operating system. Unlike Steve Jobs, who had to leave Apple, Inc. (AAPL) and mature before returning, Mr. Gates always seemed mature ahead of his years. And since he's left Microsoft, he's been mature enough to stand by his decision not to come back, despite the temptation of his old post.

Some might argue that Microsoft is a charity case these days, and Bill Gates should try to save it. But Mr. Gates, who is leading the CEO search committee, refuted rumors that he might return to lead his troubled firm back to success.

My full-time work will be with the foundation for the rest of my life. [In terms of the urgency of selecting the CEO] you always feel that way, but then again you want to pick the best person. They'll move at the right pace.

While that news may disappoint the Microsoft faithful, he did add a bit of reassurance commenting that he already is "help[ing] out part time" at the company, and that he will act as an advisor to the new CEO, whoever it may be as they navigate these troubled times for the company.

Mr. Gates owned 49 percent of Microsoft shares when the company went public in 1986, but entered a plan to sell off his holdings on a pre-set basis, selling about 80 million shares a year. Sales to date have reduced Mr. Gates' stake to 4.5 percent of current shares, or about $12.4B USD worth of stock. The share sales plan will eliminate Mr. Gates' ownership entirely by 2018, at which point he would presumably step down as board chairman -- a spot reserved for a top investor.

In all fairness to the Bible, it also tells people to be good stewards of their resources. If you are blessed with wealth, there's nothing wrong with being generous with it while also investing the rest of it in order to generate more wealth to be generous with. It would be stupid for Gates to dump all his $78 billion or whatever into one charity at once and then live on the street when that money can manage multiple charitable campaigns and buy influence over more wealthy people to get involved. That meager $30 billion he gives to charities quickly becomes hundreds of billions when applied smartly.

quote: Yes, he's given an estimated $28 billion to his foundation. He's still worth $72+ billion. He hasn't given most of it away.

I won't deny he's doing good things. But his road to getting there wasn't this great philanthropic zeal some think he's had. According to his father, it was his idea to have his son do this, when he complained about being hit in the face with pies and other not so wonderful things, his being caught lying on the stand three times in the last federal lawsuit against Microsoft, and closely avoiding contempt of court for that.

The way he ran Microsoft was, as we all know, through intimidation and threats against OEMs, refusal to share critical information with third party developers, and other partners, as came out in the first lawsuit, and the second.

His management style isn't quite possible for Microsoft any more, and so why should he come back? He's been divesting himself of Microsoft stock for years, and making mother investments. Why would he come back as CEO. It's enough that he's still Chairman, and will have the most influence on the choice of the next one.

I know this post is harsh, but if he really believed all he says, he would resign as Chairman, quit the board of directors, and just manage his foundation.