Mark has seen enough of Madison Bumgarner to believe that his results after coming back from a motorcycle accident are sustainable. With no offense to back him it creates a value proposition on the Under.

Madison Bumgarner gets his 9th start since coming back from injury, and by some metrics he is pitching better than when he got hurt. In the second half of the season he is allowing just a .225 BAA, 1.05 WHIP, and is carrying a 2.81 ERA. He’s faced Arizona twice already this season with fantastic results. In two starts he’s allowed 5 earned runs over 14 innings pitched with a stellar 18/2 K/BB rate. Bumgarner is tough on righties, with a .224 batting average allowed – a fact that makes this a good matchup against the Diamondbacks’ lineup.

Taking the mound for the Diamondbacks is Taijuan Walker who has continued to improve over last year in every respect. The most important improvement when looking at overall league trends is his drop in HR/FB% from 17.6% to 11.4% this year. Walker has faced the Giants twice this year with some success, and is coming off of a start against the Mets in which he gave up no runs over 5.1 innings pitched. The Giants are one of the worst offenses in the league, so I don’t think they’ll be the ones to break his seven-game streak of giving up 4 runs or less. With the total at a reasonable 9 at Heritage I’ll be taking the Under as one of my Saturday MLB Picks of the Day.

The Dodgers have won 90 games already this season making the prospect of giving a bullpen arm a spot start more palatable in late August. Our MLB handicapper likes the matchup it gives the visiting team.

Ross Stripling of the Dodgers burst onto the scene last year after almost throwing a no-hitter in his first MLB start. He went 5-9 on the year overall with a 3.90 FIP. This year he has been relegated to relief duty as the 7th or 9th option for starting, but with the Dodgers starting pitcher situation due to injury he’ll get the start here. Stripling is a left-handed specialist and holds southpaws to just a .192 BAA. He has trouble against right-handers though and allows a .294 BAA in relief against them. This favors the Milwaukee lineup, who should be able to put at least 7 right-handers in who will face Stipling multiple times.

Milwaukee will start Zack Davies, who has found a way to win 14 games this season with a 4.40 FIP. His strikeouts are slightly down from last year, but all other peripherals look to be stable. The last time he faced the Dodgers was in early June, when he pitched six innings of shutout ball with a 6/1 K/BB rate and picked up the win. Any win against the Dodgers this year is tough, so I put more weight into this single start than I normally would. With Stripling having some vulnerabilities I will back Davies on the moneyline as one of my Saturday MLB selection.