In a recurring Triad Real Estate Partners analysis series, we’re looking at university off campus student housing markets by athletic conference. Back in March we took a deep dive into the SEC, declaring the University of Florida the winner with the Georgia Bulldogs nipping at their heels. LSU brought up the rear with a market occupancy of just 78 percent and declining rents.

This time around, we’re headed north to the oldest collegiate athletic conference, the Big Ten. Again, we’re pulling data from Axiometrics’ University Reports for all 14-member schools, this time supplementing with CoStar data to account for the urban universities with relatively little purpose-built student housing, notably Northwestern and Rutgers. We looked at seven factors although the most heavily weighted statistics were enrollment growth, occupancy, pre-lease, pipeline and rent growth. As the saying goes, the strongest indicator of future behavior is past behavior - as such, current occupancy and prior years rent growth weighs heavily. The supply side is something that is coming up more and more frequently, so we have weighed pipeline additions as a percentage of overall supply heavily as well. On to the rankings:

At the top is the venerable University of Michigan. UM has had average enrollment growth but was way out front in rent growth, over 25 percent from 2010 to 2016. Near the top in almost all categories, we had to adjust the scale from our SEC comparison as Michigan actually exceeded 100 points. In second place you have Northwestern, something of an outlier as an urban campus environment in Evanston, Illinois, just north of Chicago. There is very little, if any, true purpose-built student housing in Evanston, as such rents per bed are quite high as most students are in studios, one, or two-bedroom apartments. Still occupancy is healthy, there is but one major project in the pipeline, and the market benefits from the Chicago proximity.

Alternatively, at the bottom of the list you see Purdue University, University of Illinois and Ohio State. Ohio State is another outlier as there is limited purpose-built student housing in the market, most apartments are smaller floor plans and there is a lot of supply in the Short North area that caters to a mix of undergraduates, graduate students, and young professionals. Thus, occupancy is on the lower end, just 91 percent, and the pipeline of true student housing is significant compared to the existing supply of by-the-bed product, but not of the apartment market as a whole. OSU gets an asterisk here. The University of Illinois has seen more development than perhaps any other school outside of the Sunbelt, huge additions to supply have kept rents and occupancy down. Purdue is something of a victim of the timing of this survey, 2010-2016 saw stagnant enrollment and flat rent growth leading to the lowest gross rents in the Big Ten. Things, however are looking up in the short term for Purdue, enrollment surged in 2017 with rents and occupancy up for both 2017 and 2018.

In the middle of the pack you see some other unique markets and outliers. Outside of New Jersey, who knew that Rutgers was growing at a rate of nearly five times that of the average Big Ten school? Developers are starting to take note with over 1,200 beds in the pipeline in a high barrier to entry market. Indiana also had substantial enrollment growth but big supply gains and low rents kept the overall score down. Minnesota is the only school to see enrollment actually decline but a super tight market (over 99 percent occupancy) and the big rents that go along with a major metro center help prop up the score. The University of Iowa probably needs an asterisk as well as there’s just so few larger purpose-built complexes in the market to track. Axio sees the supply there tripling over the next couple years with two complexes opening to supplement the existing one. Clearly that’s not indicative of the broader student market in Iowa City. An extremely deep dive into the so-called shadow market – the houses and smaller apartment buildings where many students live – might yield very different results in the more in-fill markets of the Big Ten.

A few other leaders of the pack in various categories. Sample size aside, Iowa leads the way on pre-lease at 96 percent, Michigan is next with a more complete survey at nearly 85% across the board. There are no significant pipeline projects in the Axiometrics database at Nebraska or Maryland, bolstering their future prospects. Maryland in particular seems poised to take off with strong occupancy and decent rent growth coupled with no new supply. The highest rents in the conference go to the major city markets, Northwestern and Minnesota. At the bottom of that list is the Purdue Boilermakers at just $477 per bed.

Well, there you have it, the results of Triad Real Estate Partner’s Student Housing Market Conference Showdown: Big Ten Conference Edition. While certainly a bit less exciting to most readers than the results on the football field or the hardwood, nonetheless a fascinating look into the Big Ten for the student housing investor.

— Ryan Tobias is the co-founder of Triad Real Estate Partners, a boutique student housing investment sales firm based in Chicago. Since 2005, Ryan has been involved in over $1 billion in student housing transactions across the country.

Methodology: All data from Axiometrics with the exception of rent and occupancy data for Northwestern and Rutgers which is from CoStar. Study looked at enrollments and rents for private off campus purpose built student housing from 2010-2016. Occupancies, pre-lease figures and total supply numbers from March 2018. Pipeline data for 2018-21. Weights for scoring assigned as follows: 2010-2016 Enrollment Growth: 10%, 2016 Total Enrollment: 5%, Feb 2018 Occupancy: 25%, Feb 2018 Pre-Lease: 15%, 2018-21 Pipeline as Percent of Feb 2018 Supply: 20%, Average 2016 Rent/Bed: 5%, 2010-2016 Rent Growth/Bed: 20%. Score calculated using each school’s rank in each category and weighted according with the above. That number multiplied by 9 to approximate a 100 point scale. Note: prior SEC analysis multiplied by 10.55, adjusted to 9 as Michigan exceeded 100 points.

Richmond, Va. — Campus Apartments has acquired The Collection Midtown, a portfolio of 20 apartment buildings located within Richmond’s Fan and Museum District near Virginia Commonwealth University, for $31 million.

Rexburg, Idaho — Greystone has provided a $28.2 million Fannie Mae DUS loan for the acquisition of Northpoint Apartments, a student housing property located near Brigham Young University-Idaho in Rexburg.

Dallas — Student Housing Business and the InterFace Conference Group are pleased to announce the launch of a new niche conference — SHB LeaseCon: A Social Media, Digital & Traditional Marketing Boot Camp —…

Morgantown, W.V. — Highland Realty Capital has arranged a $10.3 million bridge loan for The Ridge at Morgantown, a 644-bed student housing community located near West Virginia University in Morgantown.

Orlando, Fla. — Preferred Apartment Communities Inc. (PAC) has acquired The Retreat at Orlando, an 894-bed, cottage-style student housing community located near the University of Central Florida in Orlando.

Champaign, Ill. — Gilbane Development Company has broken ground on Octave, a 538-bed student housing community located two blocks from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign campus in Champaign.

Lafayette, La. — The University of Louisiana at Lafayette and RISE: A Real Estate Company have broken ground on a 281,000-square-foot mixed-use development located on the university’s campus in Lafayette.

Athens, Ga. — HFF has arranged the $30.4 million recapitalization of River Club Apartments and River Club Townhomes, two student housing communities operated as a single property near the University of…

Fairhope, Alabama — Leeman Covey has announced his retirement as president and CEO of the Collegiate Housing Foundation, a non-profit organization based in Fairhope, Alabama, that works to assist colleges and…

Toronto and Chicago — In an effort to expand its global investment management platform, Colliers International Group Inc. (NASDAQ: CIGI) has agreed to acquire 75 percent of Harrison Street Real Estate…

College Station, Texas — Preferred Campus Communities, a wholly owned subsidiary of Preferred Apartment Communities, has acquired The Tradition, an 808-bed student housing community located one block away from the Texas…

Pittsburgh — Duquesne University has finalized the sale of Brottier Hall, an apartment-style residence hall located on the university’s campus in Pittsburgh, to Radnor Property Group and Harrison Street Real Estate…

Washington, D.C. — Howard University and Corvias have announced the completion of renovations at Howard Plaza Towers East, a 1,163-bed residence hall located on the university’s campus in Washington, D.C.

Austin, Texas — Asset Campus Housing has been awarded management of Ballpark Apartments, which consists of several student communities in central Austin, including Ballpark East, Ballpark South and Ballpark West.

Atlanta — The University System of Georgia has released a request for qualified concessionaires (RFQC) for a student housing public-private partnership for seven University System of Georgia institutions.

Sacramento, Calif. — GMH Capital Partners and AGC Equity Partners have announced plans for The Academy on 65th, a 305-bed student housing community located near California State University – Sacramento.

Miami — The pedestrian bridge set to connect University Bridge Residences — a student housing development currently underway by a joint venture including University Developments — to Florida International University…

Atlanta — Summit Contracting Group, a multifamily general contractor, has started construction on Theory West Midtown, a student housing community located near the Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta.

Chicago — Peak Campus has been awarded management of The Flats at East-West University, a 240-bed, on-campus student housing community located at East-West University in Chicago’s South Loop neighborhood.

Hyattsville, Md. — Dubai-based Safanad Limited, in partnership with Miami-based Vie Holdings, has acquired The Towers at University Town Center, a student housing community in Hyattsville, for $69.5 million.

Bloomington, Ind. — Pillar Financial, a division of SunTrust Bank, has originated a $14.1 million refinancing for Urban Station, a 53-unit student housing community located near the University of Indiana…

Philadelphia — A joint venture between Harrison Street Real Estate Capital and Brandywine Realty Trust has sold Evo at Cira Centre South, an 850-bed student housing community located in Philadelphia’s…

New Brunswick, N.J. — FourPoint Investments and BlueGate Partners have arranged the sale of Rockoff Hall Apartments, a 674-bed student housing community located within walking distance of Rutgers University in…

Chicago — ACC and the University of Illinois at Chicago have broken ground on a living/learning community composed of a two-story academic classroom building and a 10-story undergraduate residence hall.

Charlotte, N.C. — A joint venture between The Preiss Co. and an undisclosed private investment group has acquired two student housing communities located near the University of North Carolina-Charlotte.

Greenville, N.C. — A joint venture between FM Capital, Gottlieb Family Partners and AMAC Holdings has acquired Captain’s Quarters, a 1,692-bed student housing community located near East Carolina University in…

Atlanta — A joint venture between Landmark Properties and CityLife Development Partners has acquired a 1.1-acre site near the Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta for the development of a 28-story…