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No clear victor in Romanian elections

Romania’s parliamentary elections have failed to produce a clear winner, with early indications that the opposition Social Democrats might emerge with a significant lead now proving to have been premature.

Initial reports suggested that the Social Democrats (SDP) enjoyed a six percentage point lead, but with 93% of the vote counted, the Democratic Liberal Party (DLP), the party of President Traian Băsescu, has largely eliminated the SDP’s lead.

At some points this morning, as votes came in from big cities, the DLP even pulled ahead, but, with more results being published from rural areas, the SDP is again in the lead, by less than half a point.

Mircea Geoana, the SDP’s leader, has said he is optimistic that his party will emerge on top, with the many of the outstanding votes coming from the countryside, the SDP’s heartland.

The National Liberal Party (NLP) is in the third position. The party’s leaders have said that they view its current 18% of the vote as a triumph. With that share, they would be in a position to enter government with either the DLP or the SDP. Analysts suggest that its key consideration will be the concessions made to it.

The Democratic Union of Hungarians from Romania (UDMR) is also likely to be courted by the two leading parties. It has roughly 6% so far. The party has part of both left-of-centre and right-of-centre governments for the past 12 years.

Fact File

Position at 2pm Romanian time:

Social Democrats: 33.0% in the lower chamber, 34.0% in the SenateDemocratic Liberals: 32.6%, lower chamber; Senate, 33.4%National Liberals: 18.3% and 18.5%Democrat Union of Hungarians from Romania: 6.3% and 6.5%

Nationalist parties, Romania Mare and New Generation-Christian Democratic Party, appear unlikely to garner the 5% needed to gain seats in parliament. Geroge ‘Gigi’ Becali, a colourful politician, billionaire and owner of the football club Steaua Bucharest, admitted on election night that politics was “too much” for him when it became apparent that his New Generation Party would not cross the threshold. He said he would “retire for a while, of maybe forever”, a comment that suggests he may revise his stated plan to run for the presidency in 2009.

What next?

The final results should be announced tomorrow morning. It will then rest with President Băsescu to decide who should have the first chance of forming a government.

Geoana has already called for a meeting with Băsescu. The DLP has met to discuss possible alliances, but has given no indication of its plans.

The much-prized Liberals have indicated no preferences for potential partners, but they seem likely to want their leader Calin Popescu-Tăriceanu, to remain prime minister.