We have moved!

Commenting

Friday, March 18, 2011

Cycle low

I'm fairly confident gold has put in its daily cycle low. This will probably be the last chance to enter before the C-wave finale starts the parabolic run to the top. Stops have been raised. Risk is now about as low as it's going to get.

I will open the 15 month special one more time for any late comers that want to ride this final run. Enter smt15 in the promotional code box and click continue to link to the special offer page.

361 comments:

Just got an email from my buddy who works for a local trader/fund. It was your report from yesterday cut & pasted into an email format. He gets all types of stuff forwarded to him from his Wall St contacts (dozens a day). When he saw it, he recalled your name as someone I had brought to his attention and asked "is this the guy you follow?".

Anyway, there are people still blasting your reports out there for everyone to share. You may want to look into that format where people can't cut & paste or select/copy.

I've seen some of these sites where I try and cut and paste the company's contact info for my database and it wont let me. Sounds like TZ would know more about this.

There is no way to stop people from cutting and pasting, if they have even a clue how to use a computer. Besides even if you could they can just simply forward the calls: "He says to buy, sell, hold, add leverage." etc.

Regarding silver's 20 MA. Price closed under it by a hair yesterday, but a true violation according to the guys in this book-

http://www.amazon.com/Trade-Like-ONeil-Disciple-Trading/dp/0470616539

is to wait until the following day and IF price moves under the low of the previous day then a MA violation occurred. It's more a ballpark zone to watch price action... So today's price looks like a nice bounce off the 20. I looked at $silver on StockCharts and /SI.

That blog posted on the previous post (http://likesmoney.dojispace.com/) looks like a combination of Gary & DOC. He or she uses the same terminology & language. (in a bull market, surprises come to the upside, "folks"--Gary like to say "folks" all the time.

I noticed when you try and load the site, it's not really working now. Must be desperately trying to take it down now that they are busted. Not one comment on any of the blog posts nor a lot of hits on the site.

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The New York Federal Reserve Bank confirmed that it intervened in currency markets on Friday for the first time in more than a decade.

The disclosure came a day after the Group of Seven major industrialized nations pledged in a statement to join in a coordinated effort to weaken the Japanese yen. The yen has surged in the last week to post-war record levels following the Japanese earthquake and tsunami.

A spokesman at the New York Fed, which operates as the agent of the U.S. Treasury in currency operations, confirmed that it had intervened. The last time the U.S. government intervened in currency markets was the fall of 2000 when it sold dollars and bought euros to bolster the fledgling European currency.

The spokesman refused to provide any details on the amounts of the intervention or what currencies were involved.

A stronger yen threatened to deal another blow to the fragile Japanese economy by depressing the country's exports.

In morning trading in New York on Friday, a dollar was buying 81.30 yen, up from 79.05 yen late Thursday and moving off its postwar low of 76.32 yen hit on Wednesday. Before the earthquake struck, one dollar bought 83.02 ye

I am heaviest in EXK, AG, GPL (believe it or not-GPL!!scary to some, but I got in GPL @ $2.5 and $2.7, and recently said if it ever fills that $3.50 gap, I'm loading up-and it just did a "close enough" this week :)

I hold others too, but honestly , EXK and GPL were up 10% daily on that last run. Thats good moves.

Those are also my three heaviest positions, with AG almost twice as heavy as EXK and GPL. Started buying it in the $6 range. IMO it's the best of breed for silver miners. Purest silver producer going (over 95% silver, almost no base metal credits). Also has the best chance to get from small/med. size producer to major producer (15-20+ million oz/yr) than anyone else out there now. I'm all options on SLW. April 43's, which I will roll into May throughout next week. Nice liquidity and tight spreads makes it easy to get in and out and also to sell calls against it and pick up some cash if need be during the down moves like we just endured.

hey folks ...i know gary has addressed this ad nauseum but the dollar is tanking big time intra day and PMs should be goin ballistic ....some thing is up and its not that everyone is burned from the drawdown and gun shy to get back in

Excuse me on that last one, I had to check to verify, and my additions were on Monday and Tuesday.

New York,

If we don't pull back I'm already pretty longed up. I no longer hope for a pullback, but rather plan to take advantage if it occurs. It depends on how much you own already, but if I weren't already long I wouldn't try to get too fancy on entries and risk missing the move.

Even if we have some lumps ahead of us, it's something we have to manage through proper sizing. We've already seen several bulls get shaken out of the long side (Turd Ferguson, Hammy, etc). I just remind myself that even if the C-wave doesn't materialize as we expect, we'll see much higher prices in the future. We could darn near max out and shut down computers entirely, even ride through D-waves, and still make a boat load. The important thing is to be in, and with size that won't make you freak through drawdowns so you can continue to let the bull work, IMO.

I noticed the same on AXU and added about a week before what turned out to be that nasty daily cycle correction, so I'm still a little under water on it (10%ish). I haven't looked at CDE as I focus more on the up and comers, but perhaps I will do so. Thanks!

I added a chunk of AGQ and some SIL APR 25 calls for the bounce play... spread was bad but still, they're already green... thinking if I should add some /YI... would do it if it pulls back a bit to ~34.54... currently at about 1.5-1.6x

I subscribed a few weeks back, have been lurking/reading. Have not bought the recommended portfolio yet. Thinking about doing so this afternoon, but the Japan nuclear thing gives me pause...a lot can happen over the weekend. What do you good people think I should do?Cheers, Bill.

Whatever total amount you intend to buy, add 25% today, and add incrementally later. If we go down Monday you can add again. You know where the stop-loss is.

Portfolio recommendations (I prefer picking my own juniors rather than letting SIL do it for me):

AGQSLWAGEXKAXUGPL

Do your own diligence but this is the fast track. Juniors are volatile. Your metal (no pun intended) *will* be tested. Gary (and many others on here) is an assuring voice though and will help you think rationally during those stressful times.

I don't use trade triggers because I'm by the computer, but if I couldn't be here I'd use buy limits placed below current prices on the actual vehicle I was looking to buy.

In fact, I still have an open order on SIL to buy more at $24.73, but will have to revise that higher next week (possibly $25.10 or so).

The main focus is to be sure to have positions, and sizes that let you stay focused on the longer term potential. Drawdowns aren't fun, but with proper sizing they are opportunities instead of a disaster.

You don't have to add a full position now. You can add some today. If we go lower, add more on a pullback. Don't add too much that you can't take the loss if we break the recent low. As we go higher and the profit on your position gets larger, continue to add on the way up.

'course, the downside to this approach is that you'd have a larger profit if you just go all in today (assuming we don't go lower than where we are now).

The main thing is: whatever amount you decide to add, just be sure you will be comfortable riding out a drawdown to where Gary has our stops. You don't want to look at the drawdown when we're only halfway to that stop, freak out and start selling your positions, only to see the market head higher after you've dumped part or all of your position.

For those that didn't follow David's link, here's what Peter Brimelow said regarding Murphy's plagiarism of Gary's newsletter:

"An earlier version of this column published on March 17 contained statements attributed to Michael Murphy that in large part should have been attributed to Gary Savage. Murphy has since acknowledged that his newsletter mistakenly reproduced some of Savage’s content. The column has been corrected."

what a complete ASS! Mistakenly reproduced? What a douchebag, a crook, a lying liar, and a thief with no remorse at all. You'd think the least the slimeball could do is acknowledge that he screwed up and apologize. But no, it was "mistakenly reproduced".

Email update: Gold Up Over $15 on Currency Intervention Gold climbed for the third straight day on the New York Spot, rising over $15 as of 10:30 a.m PT. Today, the Group of Seven nations agreed to intervene jointly in the foreign-exchange market to try to halt the rapid appreciation of the yen, while the dollar headed for a weekly decline against a basket of six major currencies.

Bill: If you listen to Gary (and me) you will NOT buy individual miners. They are very volatile, can blow up from bad news, and should be traded by very experienced traders. As you are late to the party and newish at this (if I understand correctly) stick with AGQ and maybe SLW and SIL. The right idea is to be in for the big move and not squeeze every possible percentage out of it. If you miss it because you freaked when a miner blew up you'll have missed a great opportunity. At least this is how i see it.

...remember I told you all, I had several other subscriptions to stock advisor services. I am laughing as I have ignored them all since I joined SMT with Gary and now all the stop and sell orders are coming in to sell asap. So glad to be with Gary SMT!

I own PSLV and went into it *thinking* it's closer to owning physical and far better than SLV (in case of a derivatives/paper money etc blow up - what ever that means). Plus it's Canadian.

Yes, PSLV has high premiums and so it won't track silver's daily price consistently. Here is the link for daily PSLV NAV/premium....when it's close to 20%, I have seen it under perform significantly relative to SLV

http://www.sprottphysicalsilvertrust.com/NetAssetValue.aspx

And then there are internet sites that "supposedly" expose other problems with PSLV.

Personally, I am going to keep my small core PSLV for long term but any new powder I just direct it to AGQ/SIL since I beleive Gary's cycle thesis that once the C-wave is done, there will be a D-wave and hence, it will be time to get back into US $.

Another response to your "stops" question: Some brokers provide an ability to place contingency orders. E-Trade does. In that case you can place a sell order for a certain stock "IF" GLD (in our case) hits a certain level. You might want to check that outwith yours.

Regarding stops, I believe pimaCanyon mentioned setting trade alerts that would send an email or text enabling you to set it above your mental stop and allowing you time to watch the price action before acting.

Hello my fellow trackers, I've been an SMT subscriber for couple years now, and just like some of you, it took some convincing to act on what Gary says even though it was quite clear what he says makes sense.

Anyway, my first time posting. Hope to post regularly here. Glad to see all this discussion taking place...it kept me going earlier this week. I completely ignored my account and thought about April - that is, the month, not some girl :)

Really hoping there is no visiting the recent lows and we see some more spurt early next week.

I base my stop areas on the volatility of the vehicle, then figure the size to trade. SIL for example has an average range each week over the last 20 weeks of roughly $2.40/share

Let's use a hypothetical 100K account, where we only want to risk 10%, or 10k. This would give us 4,100 shares (rounded down) with the $2.40 stop. One can adjust the amount of room they give for a stop depending on where they think we are in the cycle. If I wanted to add at higher prices or after a few day runup, I'd give it more room for a stop and adjust the size lower to allow more wiggle room.

You have to discover your own risk tolerance to find a comfortable stop area for you, then adjust the size accordingly, but that is a decent place to start.

The point is to figure not on how much cash you have to work with, but a reasonable assessment of total risk being taken.

Likewise, in my day trades or positions I expect to only own overnight, I need less wiggle room so will use a tighter stop with more shares. Trailing stops don't offer much advantage over regular ones, IMO, and as things get more volatile to the upside are more likely to get triggered (and at a disappointing price). This is why I have not moved my stops higher since my first entries, and the reason I haven't been shaken off the bull when it pulls back.

Does anyone else see the triangular consolidation and continuation patter in silver starting from 8am today? That should take us to $36 in a short while. Wondering if I should buy here as it breaks out, but probably won't as I am fully loaded.

The nice thing about longer term trades is that we don't have to get into everything all at once, as long as we stay focused on the plan and force ourselves to buy even when it's looking like it might go lower.

Anytime, Silverman. And those figures are just a general guideline to get an idea of what kind of volatility to expect. A trader can always reduce the # shares owned and give them much more room, but this is one common method.

Thanks ALEX! Been following your posts as I like to dabble in the miners (bought GPL and AXU after hearing you) I have been doing this a while and while it has been frustrating lately, at some point they will have to take this over from the metal. I don't want to be out when that happens. I do own a nice basket.

This is a great community we have here. Therefore, I would really appreciate your thoughts.

Last month I initiated a complete position transfer of all my shares of AGQ from Scottrade into my new Interactive Brokers (IB) account. In other words, I was completely emptying out my Scottrade account, everything in there.

At the time, I had a conditional SELL order on half of those AGQ shares with Scottrade. Not a "Sell Short" order, mind you. A plain vanilla conditional SELL order.

Well, the position transfer was completed a couple weeks ago, and the past couple weeks have been fine. There was zero equity in my old Scottrade account. I didn't even log into it once in the past month.

Now here is the problem: Scottrade, after my account had been emptied and all shares transferred out, went ahead and executed a sell SHORT order this past Tuesday when AGQ opened at $180, in effect converting the basic SELL order I entered into a SELL SHORT order because, of course, there had been no equity in my account for a couple weeks--I didn't have anything to sell!

Late last night I get a "Trade Confirmation" email from Scottrade. Shocked that there had been a trade in an account with nothing to sell in it, I logged in and saw the damage.

Scottrade now says they will have IB deduct the amount of $$ necessary to cover the short from the funds in my new IB account.

I am outraged. It is not a catastrophic loss, but it really stings, and I think it is grossly unfair. Many of you (DG, Shalom Bernanke) have more experience with broker than me.

Obviously, Scottrade sucks, but do you think they are right about this??

Catbird--I worked at a major brokerage firm and would assume that your transfer was similar to the ones we did their. When a transfer was initiated by another firm we were automatically informed not to do any trades or place trades in the account! Yours is a little trickier, but I am surprised by Scottrade and would call them to discuss further. The sooner the better!

Catbird--You may want to start at a local Scottrade Branch if you have one in town or nearby. It has been my experience that when done in person they might be more inclined to "correct" or "bust" this trade. Again, the sooner the better. If you would like I could call our local Scottrade branch and do some "fishing" for you! Contact Gary--- (Gary I do not mind if you give my e-mail to catbird-- IF he wants help)

Again--Usually in a transfer the account is effectively closed! (Not literally) and the ACAT transfer process stays "open" for months to allow for dividends to transfer over! (But not all transfers are via what we would call the ACAT system.) I forget what the acronym actually stands for!! I will call Scottrade---

I would still go back and read policy on empty account. A trade shouldn't take place if there are no shares in it. Especially a short sale. Sounds like someone was a rookie at Scott trade. Or someone vindictive, otherwise, doesn't make sense how a trade could be done on an empty account. But just wanted to throw that closed account at you, as that is what they will probably say, it was an open account with an open order. But get your facts together before calling and stay calm and firm. Escalate, if you can't get an answer as you need too all the way up, can I speak to your supervisor, your manager on up.

I would approach it as their system error. You withdrew funds at that point all trades are off. Who didn't shut down the trigger, you or them, I would say them. It's their system that should void invalid orders.

Catbird, when your transfer was done, did you also transfer or withdraw all cash from the account? Was it a zero balance? If that is the case, the trade should be an erroneous trade and they should be able to cancel it. I hope Daniel gets it done, but keep trying...and talk to the supervisors on Monday.

Catbird--Called Scottrade-- I used to know a broker there, but times have changed-- so unfortunately I do not have too much pull!!! He is not indicating it will go your way --Unfortunately. But it will not hurt--- Contact me somehow-- Hopefully via Gary???

Catbird--See my previous post re: IB.This will help as sometimes a firm will send transfer back if there is a problem-- MAKE SURE IB KNOWS NOT TO DO ANYTHING!! (If you cannot have Scottrade "bust" the bogus trade right now)

Obviously Scottrade is going to be biased in their response too ( hoping you'll back down and comply).

You may want to tell I.B. what happened...ask I.B. what they would have done if it happened that you were transfering out of their account. ( you may get an honest answer , and advice too, since you are now their new customer).

Just kidding... You know I have been waiting to get on the bus... Ok.. I will buy one finally myself. I believe there is some referral scheme. Email me at mylifemytrade AT yahoo DOT com - I will use your email at the time of subscribing as referring person.

Investing in the financial markets can involve considerable risk. Past performance is not necessarily an indication of future performance. The information included in The Smart Money Tracker and The SMT subscribers daily updates is prepared for educational purposes and is not a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security or use any particular system. Information is based on historical research using data believed to be reliable, but there is no guarantee as to its accuracy. G.D.S L.L.C., nor Gary Savage, do not represent themselves as acting in the position of an investment adviser or investment manager for funds that are not under their direct control and fiduciary responsibility. GDS L.L.C., Gary Savage, will not provide you with personally tailored advice concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security, portfolio or securities, transaction, investment strategy or other matter. From time to time, GDS L.L.C., Gary Savage, may hold positions in securities mentioned, but are under no obligation to hold such position.