9/01/2009 @ 6:00PM

When Will Ford Pass General Motors?

When will Ford outsell
General Motors
in the U.S.? The battle, GM vs. Ford, is the world’s oldest business rivalry–100 years old.

Ford
was the early winner with Henry Ford’s great creation, the Model T. GM, created by a Flint, Mich., wagon maker, Billy Durant, bought a variety of car lines, betting on the multitude rather than a single car. He even tried to buy Ford in 1909 but Henry wanted cash.

Ford was No. 1 into the 1920s, but Henry Ford refused to change his beloved T. He fought by lowering the price, but eventually GM, led by an improving Chevrolet, passed Ford when Henry shut down the plant for the Model A changeover.

GM became the world’s great company. GM’s great strength then was its variety, not just Chevy, but Pontiac, Oldsmobile, Buick and Cadillac. GM had five divisions; Ford would have five.

After World War II, Henry Ford’s grandson, Henry Ford II, gathered a team and crusaded behind the motto “Beat GM.” Led by the late Robert McNamara in 1957, the Ford division caught Chevrolet. Mercury was strengthened, Lincoln and Continental became separate divisions, and Edsel was created to apply the coupe de grace. Alas, Edsel failed and thus ended the “Beat GM” dream for 40 years.

A decade ago, it looked as if Ford might catch GM again. I recall that Jac Nasser, who headed Ford then, came to lunch at Forbes. He said that if Ford were to catch GM it would be because GM’s sales would fall to Ford’s level, not that Ford would outgrow GM.

This seemed possible, but it didn’t happen. GM’s sales continued to fall, but then Ford’s sales started falling even faster.

Now Ford is closing in again. Here are some signs–call them “straws in the wind.”

GM, with its larger lineup, outsells Ford easily in cars, but the overall difference after seven months is only a 197,637-vehicle lead for GM (GM: 1,135,674 vs. Ford at 938,037). And some 172,000 of this lead are GM models to be sold or discontinued, such as Pontiac.

Another straw: Ford’s market share after seven months is growing, to 16.1%, up from 15.6% a year ago. GM is still shrinking, 19.6%, down from 21.3%.

Ford’s top-selling car, the Fusion, easily outsells GM’s best-selling Chevrolet Impala (102,756 in seven months to 93,336). The small Ford Focus’ seven-month sales are 91,184 against 61,111 for the opposite small Chevy Cobalt.

Lincoln has begun outselling Cadillac (lack of leasing probably hurt Cadillac but this could change).

As I write this, Ford’s production this year so far is greater than GM’s–although by the time you read this, GM will be catching up because it is stepping up production.

GM still is the No. 1 seller in the nation, but these “straws” indicate Ford will catch up soon. Perhaps even jumping ahead for one month in this year yet.

There are similar signs outside the U.S. In Europe, Ford is whipping GM Opel/Vauxhall. In six months, Ford brand sales were 122,000, up from 112,000. Opel was 105,000, down from 111,000 a year before.

In Canada Ford now is outselling GM and might catch the company total before the year is done. Ford sales so far this year are a bit above last year’s, while GM’s are down 31%. But GM will outsell Ford worldwide thanks to huge leads in China and Brazil.

Still, never write GM off. GM has a new small Chevrolet coming next year, the Cruze, replacing the tired Cobalt. And a couple of new Cadillacs are coming out now that might give that brand some help, along with leasing. And there’s a new Buick LaCrosse out.

Much more important, GM Vice Chairman Robert Lutz has taken over marketing/advertising, and GM’s advertising is sure to show great improvement.

So when will Ford catch GM here in the U.S.? Old Henry Ford couldn’t do it. His grandson Henry II couldn’t do it. And Ford could still fall short this time, as it has done before.

But as of now, I’d say Ford has momentum and will outsell GM in the U.S. next year–and maybe even for one month this year.