In governor's race, Democrats lean left while Charlie Baker contends with far right

Eli Sherman Wicked Local @Eli_Sherman

Tuesday

Aug 14, 2018 at 8:00 AMAug 30, 2018 at 5:04 PM

Standing in the living room of a Wellesley home, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Jay Gonzalez tells a small group of potential voters and donors why they should support him over his primary opponent, Bob Massie.

“I honestly couldn’t tell you where we differ on policy. We both are offering a very ambitious, progressive agenda,” says the Needham Democrat. “The big difference I would ask you to consider is -- unlike Bob -- I have leadership experience in state government getting big things done.”

Gonzalez, who served as secretary of administration and finance under former Democratic Gov. Deval Patrick before running a private health insurance company, is campaigning against Massie, a Somerville author and entrepreneur with a career in various fields.

The men are vying to become the single Democratic candidate for governor, which voters will determine at the primary election scheduled for Tuesday, Sept. 4. The winner will go on to face Gov. Charlie Baker or his primary challenger the Rev. Scott Lively in the general election scheduled for Nov. 6. Independents, who don’t run primary races, must file nomination papers with the state by 5 p.m. on Aug. 28.

For the Democrats, both Gonzalez and Massie are running similar campaigns, including promises to reform the transportation system, expand renewable energy goals and implement a single-payer health care program.

But Massie, a progressive Democrat who supported Bernie Sanders during the 2016 presidential election, is skeptical of Gonzalez, saying he has been slow to back many of the progressive ideas Massie has publicly supported for decades.

“We’re in a time now where we need a different type of leader, someone who can appeal to all different groups,” Massie said during a recent debate on Boston Herald Radio.

Gonzalez, who earned the endorsement of the Massachusetts Democratic Party earlier this year, disagrees, telling Wicked Local, “I am not a new convert to my progressive values.”

A recent WBUR poll of likely Democratic voters shows a relatively tight race between the two candidates, with 16 percent of respondents supporting Gonzalez and 13 percent supporting Massie. The majority of respondents, 61 percent, said they didn’t know or wouldn’t disclose, hanging a big question mark over the race.

For the Republican primary, Baker, the incumbent, is largely favored to win over challenger Lively.

The first-term governor from Swampscott is widely popular. Morning Consult, which conducts nationwide polling, has repeatedly named Baker the most-popular governor in America, representing favor that crosses party lines.

The WBUR poll in June showed Baker more popular among Democrats, 68 percent favorability, than among Republicans, 66 percent favorability. Baker’s campaign is looking to stay the course.

“As the fall approaches, Governor Baker and Lt. Governor (Karyn) Polito look forward to building on their proud record of bipartisan, collaborative leadership that continues to deliver results for the people of Massachusetts, and earn the support of voters across the commonwealth,” said campaign spokesman Terry MacCormack in a prepared statement.

Lively, meanwhile, has struggled to build statewide name recognition, and supports divisive policy issues. The anti-gay activist, who wrote a book claiming the Holocaust was devised by gay men, is a pro-life, pro-gun rights supporter of President Donald Trump.

Lively sharply contrasts Baker, a pro-choice governor who leans left on many policy issues, which may help the Springfield pastor garner support from ultra-conservative voters. The dynamic played out during the Massachusetts Republican Convention in April, when he earned 27 percent of support from delegates compared to Baker’s 70 percent. The minimum requirement to get on the ballot was 15 percent.

Lively, who says he has since been shunned by the party, has filed a $7 million lawsuit against Baker and the Massachusetts GOP, alleging the party violated its bylaws in supporting Baker during the signature-gathering process. Nonetheless, he believes his base of like-minded supporters will ultimately deliver him a primary victory.

“The three constituencies I’m banking on are the pro-life community, the Second Amendment community and the Trump voters,” he said. “Any one of those three could deliver a win, but I think the three of them together is very formidable and the three are very angry with Mister Baker, who believes he’s completely invulnerable in the primary.”

When asked about Lively and his campaign, the Baker campaign declined to comment.

Polling and policy aside, money often talks loudest in American politics, allowing candidates to -- among other things -- make campaign ads and buy costly airtime. In this area of politics, Baker rules.

As of July 31, the governor’s campaign bank account, often referred to in politics as a “war chest,” totaled $8.4 million, which was 646 times more than the $12,987 in Lively’s bank account.

He has also received help from the Commonwealth Future Independent Expenditures PAC, funded mostly by the Republican Governors Association. The PAC recently spent $2.4 million on an ad supporting the governor, which first aired Aug. 1, according to campaign finance reports.

The financial support will undoubtedly help Baker’s already-lopsided odds in the primary. And if he’s successful in becoming the Republican candidate, the money will likely help him dominate the airwaves in the months, weeks and days leading up to the general election. The war chests of Gonzalez and Massie, as of July 31, totaled $431,660 and $109,057, respectively.

When asked about the funding gap, however, Gonzalez was determined money would not decide the outcome of this gubernatorial election.

“We just need to raise enough,” he said.

Eli Sherman is an investigative and in-depth reporter at Wicked Local and GateHouse Media. Email him at esherman@wickedlocal.com, or follow him on Twitter @Eli_Sherman.

CAMPAIGN FINANCE REPORTS

The final reports filed Aug. 15 show that Baker spent $2,910,269 and spent $3,576,143 and that Lively raised $108,477 and spent $115,002. Gonzalez raised $787,176 and spent $507,877 and Massie raised $424,997 and spent $360,459.

Since the beginning of the year, Baker has spent 50 percent more than he did in his 2014 primary campaign against Mark Fisher, who spent a third as much as Lively has so far this year.