- 3000 or so berkut soldiers- a few divisions of NVC (ministry of the interior troops). not all of which will be particularly loyal- maybe a few police forces in various towns

and that's it. the actual military is constitutionally forbidden from taking part in internal disputes (including civil wars) and this is something that is taken very seriously by them. there is essentially zero chance they will join any conflict.

the idea that yannick could just 'crush' the protesters easily heavily overstates his actual mechanisms of power.

additionally, please don't think that yannick loves putin. in fact, he hates him. however, yannick is between a rock and a hard place now and his 'street criminal' background is essentially guiding him by instinct to stay in power as he can.

i've beeen deeply involved with this situation since its onset. it may not end well, but i kind of think it will. unfortnately, i think the likely outcome will be the one that the protesters are now banging for but that they havent through through enough. they SHOULD be for international impartial organization of the 2015 pres elections, including insuring ballot access, ballot box access, and media control in the period leading up to it. instead they are now on about early elections or, even worse, constitutional change. The latter especially shows the immaturity of the protesters (mind you, i support them wholeheartedly) as they are trying to play politics with the constitution, which weakens their legitimacy. sure, the bad guys did it too, but that's why they are the bad guys.

Bomb Head Mohammed:and that's it. the actual military is constitutionally forbidden from taking part in internal disputes (including civil wars) and this is something that is taken very seriously by them. there is essentially zero chance they will join any conflict.

I read just read that Yabukovych sacked the commander in chief and installed a new one...do you think it's possible a yes man might be game to shiat on the constitution?

bdub77:MaudlinMutantMollusk: What's the line on Putin rolling in the tanks?

That would be hugely stupid. It's much better to find out which side favors trade agreements with Russia and then arm those people. See: Syria.

I doubt Putin would even try that. Any hint that he's about to go full Soviet in Eastern Europe and the EU will shut off the gas lines that bring Western Europe natural gas and oil and send oodles cash back to Moscow. The last thing Western Europe wants is a return to Russian satellite states growing them in from the east.

What's more is Putin know's it. That's why he's been playing the kids version of what the US used to do in LAtin America. Send chests of cash and intel to politicians to get them into power where they can do nice things for you, like sign exclusive trade deals that render your own country n economic satellite state of Russia...again.

Whats more is the Ukraine's putative status with regards to NATO. The Ukraine took far more concrete steps than Georgia ever did to join the alliance. Sending into troops into a nation that has previously been enthusiastic about NATO membership might set off some alarms over at the SACEUR's office. Which if you think how the match up between tiny, lightly armed Georgia and the might of the Russian army went, means that any attempt by Russian forces to take on a modern Western military falls somewhere between a desperate plea for assisted suicide and potato.

HotWingConspiracy:Bomb Head Mohammed: and that's it. the actual military is constitutionally forbidden from taking part in internal disputes (including civil wars) and this is something that is taken very seriously by them. there is essentially zero chance they will join any conflict.

I read just read that Yabukovych sacked the commander in chief and installed a new one...do you think it's possible a yes man might be game to shiat on the constitution?

The military chief was replaced with someone who is very pro-military. Additionally, he declared all of the protestors terrorists which gives the military carte blanche to get involved.

DetrimentalScience:HotWingConspiracy: Bomb Head Mohammed: and that's it. the actual military is constitutionally forbidden from taking part in internal disputes (including civil wars) and this is something that is taken very seriously by them. there is essentially zero chance they will join any conflict.

I read just read that Yabukovych sacked the commander in chief and installed a new one...do you think it's possible a yes man might be game to shiat on the constitution?

The military chief was replaced with someone who is very pro-military. Additionally, he declared all of the protestors terrorists which gives the military carte blanche to get involved.

rockradio1:If this is even remotely successful in the Ukraine, look for Belarus to erupt and Minsk to become a battleground that's far worse.

If Ukrainians thought they had it bad -- take a look at the near dictatorship and staunch Communist hold-outs ruling with an iron fist in Belarus.

CSB:

My SO is getting her PhD and one of her classmates is from Belarus. I usually like to ask international grad/undergrad students if they want to return to their home country when they are done studying.

"Hey Constantine, do you want to go back to Belarus after graduation?"

And with a stone face that would make Mt Rushmore look soft, he replied without skipping a beat

"No."

/Then began an hour discussion about the government of Belarus//Don't blame him

Pubby:bdub77: MaudlinMutantMollusk: What's the line on Putin rolling in the tanks?

That would be hugely stupid. It's much better to find out which side favors trade agreements with Russia and then arm those people. See: Syria.

I doubt Putin would even try that. Any hint that he's about to go full Soviet in Eastern Europe and the EU will shut off the gas lines that bring Western Europe natural gas and oil and send oodles cash back to Moscow. The last thing Western Europe wants is a return to Russian satellite states growing them in from the east.

What's more is Putin know's it. That's why he's been playing the kids version of what the US used to do in LAtin America. Send chests of cash and intel to politicians to get them into power where they can do nice things for you, like sign exclusive trade deals that render your own country n economic satellite state of Russia...again.

Whats more is the Ukraine's putative status with regards to NATO. The Ukraine took far more concrete steps than Georgia ever did to join the alliance. Sending into troops into a nation that has previously been enthusiastic about NATO membership might set off some alarms over at the SACEUR's office. Which if you think how the match up between tiny, lightly armed Georgia and the might of the Russian army went, means that any attempt by Russian forces to take on a modern Western military falls somewhere between a desperate plea for assisted suicide and potato.

Considering Russia's typical response to political issues with Eastern Europe is "cut of natural gas supplies until they comply" I don't think that threat is going to be too effective. And more likely than sending troops into the Ukraine is to cut of gas supplies to dissenting regions with teh elp of the Ukraine government.

I wonder how the eu will react to this. On the one hand, they want pro western government, on the other, supporting a group that ha effectively broken away from the central government might come back to haunt them in pleases like Catalonia

HotWingConspiracy: Bomb Head Mohammed: and that's it. the actual military is constitutionally forbidden from taking part in internal disputes (including civil wars) and this is something that is taken very seriously by them. there is essentially zero chance they will join any conflict.

I read just read that Yabukovych sacked the commander in chief and installed a new one...do you think it's possible a yes man might be game to shiat on the constitution?

This is the fear. I suspect the army guy who got sacked told Yannick flat out something to the effect that he didn't care much for either the protesters or the government but that his duty was to the constitution. However, I don't think just sacking one chief will change the fundamental fact that every officer has the same "we only deal with external threats" philosophy drilled into them and as a basic part of their oath. It's not like a small thing to them - this "external threats only" is really a core part of their oath that they as military people take very seriously.

The bigger question is why yannick has fired his top military guy at a time like this. Basically it comes down to he did the same sort of math that I outlined in my previous post and this is the first time he personally really encountered the military mindset that he was only peripherally aware of.

At least, that's my hope in what the situation is. My confidence level in my particular interpretation here is only around 70%.