000
AXUS74 KMAF 041644
DGTMAF
NMC015-025-TXC003-033-043-103-109-115-135-165-173-227-243-301-317-
329-335-371-377-383-389-415-443-461-475-495-231315-
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1200 PM CDT WED FEB 4 2015 /100 PM MDT WED FEB 4 2015/
...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...
SYNOPSIS...
THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM)...ISSUED IN PARTNERSHIP BETWEEN THE
NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER...USDA...AND NWS ON 27 JANUARY...
SHOWS DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO THE BEST THEY HAVE
BEEN SINCE 2010 ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. IN
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...NORTHWEST EDDY COUNTY REMAINED IN MODERATE
DROUGHT. THE REST OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO WAS EITHER ABNORMALLY DRY
OR OUT OF DROUGHT...MOSTLY OUT OF DROUGHT. IMPACTS OF MODERATE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS INCLUDE SOME DAMAGE TO CROPS AND PASTURES. IN
WEST TEXAS...ONLY EASTERN SCURRY...EXTREME NORTHEAST MITCHELL...AND
SOUTHEAST TERRELL COUNTIES REMAINED IN MODERATE DROUGHT.
OTHERWISE...THE REST OF WEST TEXAS WAS EITHER ABNORMALLY DRY OR OUT
OF DROUGHT...MOSTLY OUT OF DROUGHT.
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST MONTH HAS GENERALLY BEEN NEAR-NORMAL TO
ABOVE-NORMAL...AND MOST LOCATIONS ARE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR ANNUAL
RAINFALL. HOWEVER...WATER SHORTAGES REMAIN...AND MANDATORY WATER
USE RESTRICTIONS REMAIN IN PLACE IN SOME LOCATIONS.
SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...
FIRE DANGER IMPACTS.
AS OF 3 FEBRUARY...BURN BANS ARE IN EFFECT EVERYWHERE ACROSS WEST
TEXAS EXCEPT ANDREWS...BORDEN...BREWSTER...DAWSON...GAINES...
LOVING...MARTIN...PRESIDIO...REAGAN...SCURRY...AND TERRELL COUNTIES.
THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE USES THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI)
AS A SYSTEM FOR RELATING CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED FIRE BEHAVIOR. IT IS A NUMERICAL INDEX
CALCULATED DAILY. EACH NUMBER IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...NEEDED TO BRING THE SOIL
BACK TO SATURATION. THE INDEX RANGES FROM 0 TO 800...WITH 0
REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND 800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL. AS OF
3 FEBRUARY...THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX SHOWED VALUES RANGING
FROM LESS THAN 300 WEST OF THE PECOS TO NEAR 500 IN THE PERMIAN
BASIN. THE 400 TO 600 RANGE IS TYPICAL OF LATE SUMMER AND EARLY
FALL. IN THIS RANGE...LOWER LITTER AND DUFF LAYERS CONTRIBUTE TO
FIRE INTENSITY AND WILL BURN ACTIVELY. NOTE THAT FIRE DANGER CAN
CHANGE QUICKLY FROM DAY TO DAY AS WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY.
THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE ADVISES TO WATCH OUT FOR KEY CRITICAL
WEATHER THRESHOLDS OF WINDS ABOVE 15 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW
25 PERCENT. WHEN THESE THRESHOLDS ARE MET OR EXCEEDED...FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ELEVATED.
AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...
ACCORDING TO THE TEXAS CROP WEATHER REPORT ISSUED 3 FEBRUARY BY THE
TEXAS A&M AGRICULTURE PROGRAM...IN THE FAR WEST...MOST COUNTIES
REPORTED SMALL AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION AND MOSTLY GOOD CONDITIONS
FOR FIELDWORK. TOPSOIL MOISTURE WAS MOSTLY ADEQUATE...WHILE SUBSOIL
MOISTURE WAS SHORT. PASTURES AND RANGELANDS WERE MOSTLY IN FAIR TO
POOR CONDITION. UPLAND COTTON AND PECANS WERE COMPLETELY HARVESTED.
REEVES COUNTY OATS WERE MOSTLY IN GOOD CONDITION. WINTER WHEAT WAS
50 TO 100 PERCENT EMERGED AND MOSTLY IN FAIR TO POOR CONDITION.
IN THE SOUTH PLAINS...RAIN THROUGHOUT THE REGION RANGED FROM 0.5 TO
0.75 INCH. TEMPERATURES REMAINED WARM. THE WINTER PRECIPITATION
HELPED WINTER WHEAT COME ALONG. WITH MINOR EXCEPTIONS...ALL CROPS
WERE HARVESTED...AND PRODUCERS MOVED ON TO PREPARING FIELDS FOR
SPRING PLANTING. RANGELAND AND PASTURES WERE IN GOOD CONDITION FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. CATTLE WERE MOSTLY IN GOOD CONDITION.
CLIMATE SUMMARY...
SINCE 1 JANUARY...THE FOLLOWING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WERE REPORTED:
MIDLAND HAS RECEIVED 2.43 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION. NORMAL IS 0.63
INCHES.
CARLSBAD HAS HAD 0.96 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION. NORMAL IS AROUND
0.45 INCHES.
MARFA HAS HAD 1.27 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION. NORMAL IS AROUND 0.54
INCHES.
FORT STOCKTON HAS HAD 1.58 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION. NORMAL IS
AROUND 0.69 INCHES.
PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...OR CPC...AS OF 8
JANUARY...THERE IS A 50-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF EL NINO THROUGH EARLY
MARCH...WITH NEUTRAL CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.
THE CPC OUTLOOK FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH APRIL FOR WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO FORECASTS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AS A RESULT OF THE PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK ABOVE...THE
LATEST U.S. SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK...ISSUED 15 JANUARY BY THE
CPC...INDICATES DROUGHT CONDITIONS LIKELY TO REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM
CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY...
RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF 4 FEBRUARY:
NORMAL POOL 24-HR MAX DEPTH % CONSERVATION
RESERVOIR POOL TODAY CHANGE TODAY CAPACITY
--------- ---- ----- ------ ----- --------
JB THOMAS 2258.00 2239.14 0.00 39.12 45.1
COLORADO CITY 2070.20 2047.22 0.00 32.21 21.5
CHAMPION CREEK 2083.00 2035.05 -0.02 35.15 5.6
NATURAL DAM SALT 2457.00 2447.33 0.00 + 48.6
MOSS CREEK 2337.00 2328.38 -0.11 36.38 64.0
BRANTLEY 3256.70 3264.33 0.01 58.33 219.0
AVALON 3177.40 3176.44 0.02 7.44 81.0
RED BLUFF 2827.40 2825.29 0.02 61.11 89.9
NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AS NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
&&
RELATED WEB SITES...
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
OUR LOCAL DROUGHT WEB PAGE:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/MAF/VERSION.PHP?PIL=DGTMAF&CWI=1&N=0
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR: HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML
NOAA DROUGHT PAGE: HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV/
OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://WWW.MET.TAMU.EDU/OSC/ NWS...HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/
NWS AHPS: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/
USGS: HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/
USACE: HTTP://WWW.MVR.USACE.ARMY.MIL/
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/
INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY AND WATER COMMISSION:
HTTP://WWW.IBWC.STATE.GOV
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
THE NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE IBWC...THE USDA...STATE AND
REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION
CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS
AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION
SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.
QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2500 CHALLENGER DRIVE
MIDLAND TEXAS 79706
PHONE: 432.563.5006
$$
DEBERRY