Military report raises concerns about social unrest fueled by globalization, urbanization

A new report from the U.S. military warns of globalization and urbanization fueling social unrest, as well as a potential collapse of the Mexican government as that country deals with violence and corruption induced by drug cartels and organized crime.

The military report also discusses concerns about global water scarcity, including in the American Southwest, and a weakened U.S. globally if there are major reductions in U.S. defense spending.

The Joint Operating Environment 2008 report by the U.S. Joint Forces Command outlines potential short- and long-term security worries, including terrorist networks obtaining nuclear and biological weapons, as well as instability and aggressiveness involving China, India, Pakistan, India and the Middle East.

The report also worries about drug cartels in Mexico and Latin America and their potential for violence, government corruption and, in an extreme scenario, a weakened or failed Mexican state.

“The Mexican possibility may seem less likely, but the government, its politicians, police and judicial infrastructure are all under sustained assault and pressure by criminal gangs and drug cartels. How that internal conflict turns out over the next several years will have a major impact on the stability of the Mexican state. Any descent by Mexico into chaos would demand an American response based on the serious implications for homeland security alone,” the report said.

There have been scores of murders between rival drug cartels and between the cartels and Mexican police. The violence is especially bad in northern Mexican cities including Tijuana and Nogales.

U.S. Sen. Jon Kyl, R-Ariz., warned that Mexican violence and instability could be one of President-elect Barack Obama’s first security challenges.

Mexico is Arizona’s largest trading partner. The state is also a main entry point into the U.S. for Mexican drug cartels and human smugglers, and there are links between the cartels and illegal gun purchases and gun running from Phoenix.

The government report also raises concerns that a diminished or pulled-back U.S. economy on the world stage could reduce American influence and power.

“A central component of America’s global military posture is its massive economic power. This power is predicated on a financially viable, globally connected domestic economy. Should this central feature of American power be weakened, it is highly likely that military capabilities will be diminished or otherwise degraded as a result,” the report said.

The U.S. recession and financial and housing busts have raised concerns about future American economic predominance.

Obama is not highly supportive of international trade policies and has promised to draw down American troops in Iraq. In addition, Democrats gained seats in Congress this year and could push for more protectionist and domestic-oriented policies.

Glenn Williamson, CEO of the Canada Arizona Business Council, expects to see a greater focus on North America under Obama.

“I am starting to see a trend here from the new administration -- possibly pulling in some U.S. assets in far-off countries that don’t even like us, and focusing more on a continental North America where Canada, the U.S. and Mexico could almost be energy self-sufficient,” Williamson said. “The U.S. and Canada need a strong Mexico for that to succeed. The concept of a broken Mexico or Canada on either border of the U.S. does not work.”

A “broken” Mexico could diminish U.S trade, tourism and investment there, resulting in Western investment being moved to Asia or other, more stable markets.

The report also says while economic globalization could bring more prosperity, disparities in wealth and increased economic expectations could lead to unrest and civil wars, which may require U.S. economic, humanitarian and military responses.