Neon Dion – The First Month

“Dion Waiters, Cavaliers — Nov. 23: Waiters still looks like a more dribble-happy version of Marcus Thornton with a bigger upside. His raw numbers looked good against the Magic — he scored 25 points and dished out 5 assists with no turnovers. But I counted him shooting 3-for-10 on bad shots, meaning he missed seven times when he had far better options than what he chose: step-back 3s with time on the clock, a one-on-three transition drive and “hope” shot, and forced long jumpers.

During Cleveland’s recent five-game stretch, he made five shots per game and missed 12 per game, which is tough to swallow when Cleveland lost four of those games by close margins. If Waiters learns the value of good shot selection, he’ll see his shooting percentages go up while his team wins more games.”

Thoughts?

Dion Waiters, Cavaliers — Nov. 23: Waiters still looks like a more dribble-happy version of Marcus Thornton with a bigger upside. His raw numbers looked good against the Magic — he scored 25 points and dished out 5 assists with no turnovers. But I counted him shooting 3-for-10 on bad shots, meaning he missed seven times when he had far better options than what he chose: step-back 3s with time on the clock, a one-on-three transition drive and “hope” shot, and forced long jumpers.

During Cleveland’s recent five-game stretch, he made five shots per game and missed 12 per game, which is tough to swallow when Cleveland lost four of those games by close margins. If Waiters learns the value of good shot selection, he’ll see his shooting percentages go up while his team wins more games.

90 Responses to “Neon Dion – The First Month”

I take everything Thorpe says with a grain of salt. He very clearly pimps guys that he works out (i.e. they are PAYING him), thus everything he says is invalidated by that bias.

Remember, this is the same guy that said Tristan Thompson was the 2nd best rookie from last year’s class. I’m a Cavs fan, but that insulted my intelligence. (And guess who got paid to work out Tristan Thompson? That’s right, David Thorpe.)

And in regards to the “more dribble-happy Marcus Thornton” comment, frankly, I find that absurd considering I’ve never seen a player who appears to love dribbling more than Thornton does. And while Dion may sometimes take some ill-advised shots (for which I can’t really blame him given that, with Irving out, he’s really the only player that can effectively create for himself), he’s a better facilitator than Thornton ever has been.

Also, these rankings are dumb, and pointless, and dumb. We’re a month into the season.

Guys I have no worries about:
1. Kyrie Irving, yes I know the defense, he’s young it will come around
2. Andy V. (I can never spell his last name), he looks great
3. Dion Waiters, looks like a scorer who will only get better

I also think it’s too negative…and I don’t really see how Dion is dribble-happy- I think he’s been pretty quick and decisive- and that one move he does on the right wing that’s basically a quick jabstep/fake to the middle of the court before the dribble drive? Beautiful

Thorpe couches all of what he says in who is working out with him and what he thinks of players’ demeanor so you have to take his “rankings” with caution but his actual analysis is usually ok. My gripe with his comments about Dion is the constant Marcus Thornton comparison. As it relates to scoring ability in general it makes sense. I’m not mad at that comparison because Thornton is a clear 18 a game scorer if given the green light.

Dion doesnt show the lethargic on-ball defense and tunnel-vision scoring that Thornton does though. Dion’s handle and vision are eons better and his jumper isn’t nearly as consistent.

The notes about shot-type are true but even with his forced shots he’s shooting 38% on above the break 3’s and 41 from mid-range. Those are more than acceptable rookie year numbers and even if he never gets better from there then he can be a borderline-all star Mitch Richmond type by learning to finish. 36% in the restricted area and 23% on paint shots is terrible. Using the eye-test though we can all see how many “almost” finishes and rim-outs he has. That’s going to come as a function of practice and coaching. I worry where he’ll get that but I have to think it’ll come.

Dion does dribble a lot. But that is because BScott’s offense is centered around penetrating guards creating offense for others. With Kyrie out, Dion has an enormous burden for a rookie, and is clearly being asked to control the ball and the offense. Given that, I don’t think his “dribbling” is a problem – he is doing what the team needs.

His current problem is definitely his over reliance on deep jumpers. But his decision making in the P-n-R, and off the dribble, is really really great. I see tons of upside as he matures. By far the best choice Grant could have made. There isn’t a single wing I would want over him from this draft. MKG is the closest, but less upside for BScott team. And Lillard is not a wing.

Has anyone else noticed that Dion has a weird hitch in his shot? He “turns” or rotates off a pivot foot into the shot, rarely going straight up. He even does it at the free throw line sometimes. I think it’s part of the reason he’s so good pulling up from the left baseline, but I think it effects his shooting percentage, especially on set shots. It’s also why he seems at an angle a lot of times when pulling up. He definitely doesn’t seem to shoot with his shoulders square. He does get a lot of elevation on his jumper and shoots well from three, but I could definitely see it effecting his consistency.

As for the way he handles the ball in the offense, I don’t have a problem with it. It’s when he pulls up for dumb shots early in the shot clock or doesn’t make the pass and cut when he’s being hedged. He seems to be looking for the homerun pass a lot, rather than just moving the ball. However, when he’s out there with TT, and Miles I can see why he holds the ball sometimes.

It’s hard to believe that he won’t improve at finishing over time, he gets there too well. I think he makes his mind up on how he’s going to finish too soon and the shot is bothered by the defender. I’m hoping once he’s comfortable with the size and speed of the NBA, he’ll open up and be a little more creative at the rim. Above all I’d like to see him get that down this season and then work on his shot in the off-season.

Honestly, His problem is on finishing. That’s why we got him. The D-Wade comparisons. Like people have said, his 3’s are as good as could be expected, and hitting his mid range shot (which is being crucified as poor shot selection) at 41% is probably his most noteworthy accomplishment at this point. If Waiters did everything he is currently doing but could actually finish near the rim he’d be in conversation for the top spot on this list, no doubt.

I’m not super concerned, because the guy finished them in college, and he gets there a lot and doesn’t get blocked a ton, and most of his attempts at least come pretty close. At the same time though, I’m not ready to say he’ll for sure be great at finishing eventually. The guy doesn’t have the explosiveness or hops to get up over the bigger NBA defenders, and has to contort his shot a lot to not get blocked. If someone has seen him slam home a dunk over a big man in the half court I’d love to see the highlight, cause I haven’t seen it. Great finishing SG’s can usually do that once in a while. That said, the man can always learn from Kyrie, a great finisher who rarely dunks on anyone, and hopefully learn the craftiness and spin to finish below the rim at an acceptable rate, but the guy is light years apart from being a wade-esque finisher. There have been many times where he’s been driving to the hoop and he jumps and I get ready for a big eff you dunk, and he doesn’t quite get there and puts up some awkward rolling layup that rims out instead.

I still have faith that the guy will improve, that eventually his rookie hazing will end and he’ll get the whistles he should, which will give him the confidence to contort less and initiate contact more, and he’ll become an above average finisher who gets to the rim and free throw line a lot and has a decent shooting stroke and good vision for a sg. However, given his limited vertical game and poor results so far, I’m not blind enough to write it up as a foregone conclusion like certain homers (Cols, here’s to you buddy! Gotta have a couple eternal optimists around to counter the Mallory’s of the blog)

As I’ve said, I have one major concern. Thorpe is right about the shot selection. To echo Nate, he pulls up WAY too often for dumb shots early in the clock. This is probably my biggest concern, as it might mean he’s a chucker. I actually think he’s played better without Kyrie than when he was playing with him – he’s looking to drive far more than before. That being said, he NEEDS to stop with the step back jumpers.

To add on, the reason why this worries me so much is wild shooters are pretty hard to tame. At the pro level, shot selection is key (duh) and it’s easy, especially on a bad team, to get into horrible habits. He’s really athletic, but instead of using his athleticism, he often looks like he just wants to shoot immediately. That’ll be hard to train out of him.

oh btw, Have you guys seen that, even with as bad as we’ve been, the Cavs are still 21st on Hollinger’s statistical driven power rankings? I guess playing a brutal schedule like we have should temper expectations on results a bit, and we really have been in most of our games in the 4th quarter so far.

Cols, NOT EVERY ROOKIE REACHES THEIR POTENTIAL. What part of pointing out flaws, areas for improvement, and concern about red flags don’t you get?

His show selection is a legitimate concern. So is his inability to finish. He’s always had questionable shot selection dating to syracuse, and he never had to finish over athletic 7 footers and NBA-talent wings every night in college. Simply pointing out a few reasons to be optimistic doesn’t gaurantee that the problem is of no concern. To look at waiters and ignore all the bad stuff and just project the good stuff is silly. Any Wizards fan can predict a 2013 Larry obrien trophy if they simply expect everything that could go right does go right for all their players.

Kyrie – you know what i don’t care at all about Hollinger’s Power Rankings? Because the regular season is a different animal than the playoffs. For 2 straight years the Cavs were the BEST team in hollinger’s power rankings and he predicted they would win the finals, and they didn’t. It’s great that you think being 21st is good – you must have had pretty low expectations. I would say that’s about what I expected and it’s a bummer. Also, they are meaningless this early in the season. For example, people are constantly questioning whether the Lakers will MISS the playoffs. This is absurd. If Dwight Howard and scrubs could make the playoffs, I’m sure Dwight Howard, Kobe Byrant, Pau Gasol, Steve Nash, and scrubs can make the playoffs. They aren’t healthy and it is very difficult sometimes to integrate new pieces. The Cavs were 66-16 and it took a long time to integrate Shaq into the offense. Hollinger’s power rankings are probably better than regular standings and predicting future success, but not by a ton, and not after 15 games.

Mallory..sometimes stepbacks are great shots. DWade, Brandon Roy and a host of other 2 guards made a living on those. If he’s going to hit in the low 40%’s on those then by all means fire a few up. That’s a scoring skill that a coach wouldnt want to quell in an iso scorer. Also he can learn to draw fouls on the perimeter with that move and keep his defender on his hip for dribble drives. That step back is a weapon, not a bad habit. Finding out how and when to use it is exactly what he should be doing now.

Also, I’d challenge your “wild shooters” blanket statement. Even the biggest outliers in shot selection have had better and more approving results when on teams with leadership and structure. Jamal Crawford is a historic chucker and when given 2 roles on a good team (score as much on the 2nd unit and bail out plays in the 4q when CP3 is trapped) he’s been amazing in his role. Jason Terry, Nick Van Exel, hell even Antoine Walker in the Dallas and Miami years. The NBA is littered with players who were considered problems in a structured offense who fell into a role when clearly shown that they would succeed and that there is a better option. Kyrie and a good scheme would represent those options in Dion’s development. We’ve got one of the two right now. Dude isn’t Ricky Davis or Nick Young.

With great offensive rebounders in TT and Andy, a skilled shotmaker in Kyrie and Dion probably on track to round into a strong ISO/PnR player, it would be sound to hunt shots early and work early offense. This season is a science experiment for all intents and purposes. Making moves for the sake of making moves seems like a terrible idea. Especially given that the majority of the talent is falling into place. Rudy Gay is excelling, Josh Smith isn’t being traded. It’s year two of a rebuild (counting the post-lebron year is just shortsighted), patience is key.

Lebron didn’t bring Jordan results but he’s one of like 3 modern players you can say are Jordan-like in impact. It took the Bulls 8 years to clean up their house. There’s no Eddy Curry/Tyson Chandler disaster draft/development classes here. (Unless the Cavs start listening to chatter and blow up the Tristan Thompson project)

The biggest myth in the world is that Dion takes bad shots. I mean, first of all is there ANY more subjective measure in the known universe than “bad shots?” This is a complete hang-over from Dion’s summer league performance and is the kind if lazy sports journalism I despise, whether it come from Thorpe or Pluto. I focus on his shot selection every game and never seen him take more than 3, maybe 4, bad shits in any game so far. And I’ve watched every minute of Dion’s play. Has Thorpe? Doubt it.

As for the finishing thing. I swear, I sometimes feel like some of you don’t actually watch the games. He is ALREADY finishing better right now then earlier in the season. Yes, he can get even better but if you actually watch CLOSELY he really seems to be adjusting and finishing better.

As I said previously, I think there had been a whole lot of goal-post moving on Dion in this blog, save for Kevin Hetrick. The guy is exceeding expectations. Leads all rookies in steals, btw and is running the point better than anyone not named Kyrie we’ve had in 3 years (he’s a better passer/assist guy then Sessions, IMO) 15 games into his career. I mentioned it a few days ago and absolutely no one seemed to notice it but Wade and Dion’s numbers through their first 13games were nearly IDENTICAL including the FG%. Grant got the pick right and, quite frankly, all the “experts” who didn’t see that pick coming are now basically being haters…

Tom, no one said Hollingers Rankings are the end all be all. Clearly the playoffs are a different animal. (A fact that actually makes me closer to wanting to trade Andy, where his hustle and non-stop motor don’t differentiate himself from the rest of the guys on the court as much) and if he predicted them perfectly no one would bet on playoff games.

That said, the winners of the last few championships have all been toward the top of his rankings, and his ranking most assuredly DO have the lakers comfortably in the playoffs. I’d be more concerned about the small sample size you mention and how accurate his valuing of home vs away games are than the rankings as a whole. Regardless, I don’t think being 21st is good, but its certainly better than being 28th, which is what our record indicates.

KyrieSwIrving
I totally understand that not all rookies reach their potential. However, MF II seems to harbor some weird hatred toward Waiters.

He’s the only one who thinks that Waiters takes tons of bad shots. He’s basically the only one here who thinks that Waiters won’t get any better or is doubtful it will happen.

These statements are being made after about a month of play.

Meanwhile everyone keeps pointing out that maybe Waiters isn’t taking that many bad shots, that it’s likely his shooting percentage is going to rise as he gets more experience and learns how to play in the NBA. He’s shown a unique ability to get to the hoop, make 3s, and not have many turnovers. Yet no matter what is pointed out, MF continually pouts about how much Dion Waiters is ruining his life.

It’s nuts. If you want to be completely down about a young Cavs team fine, but quit trying to bring down the rest of us. Especially since early returns are so freaking positive.

Demetrius – the problem isn’t that he takes step back jumpers, it’s that he takes them with 15 seconds on the clock, While he’s being covered.

I have no problem with taking high percentage shots, but there are times where he simply lets it fly too quickly. If you don’t see that, then you’re overlooking a flaw in his game intentionally.

That’s not to say he can’t correct it, and to a certain degree I agree it’s a good time to learn when to use his arsenal of weapons, but the guy really is taking some blatantly stupid shots.

I totally agree about the chucker thing – on the right team, that makes sense. But this is a young team with VERY little leadership where we’re actually expecting HIM to grow into a leader. If he was a 30 year old vet coming onto a playoff caliber team, that’s fine, but with the number 4 pick in a deep draft year you should really hope for more.

Thorpe used real numbers to count the number of bad shots Waiters took guys – it’s right there in front of you. If you choose to ignore it fine, but don’t attack me for point something out that people who actually do this for a living have noticed.

KJ, no way is Dion a better facilitator than sessions, thats crazy talk. And you mention he takes 3 or 4 bad shots some games, I have only watch half the games, but he seems to be hitting that mark every game (though not going over), which is a lot. No one should take 3 or 4 contested jumpers with 12+ seconds on the shot clock every game. And as much as you say he’s finishing better, you must mean asthetically, because its not showing up in made buckets. His finishing at the rim percentage hasn’t climbed at all in the last week or two.

Simply posting the same stats as a player 13 games into your rookie year means absolutely nothing. He and wade aren’t all of a sudden the same player. All that goes to show is that you can’t write him off, which no one here is doing. But at the same time, there are probably tens to hundreds of SG’s that have had better stats than dion 13 games into their careers who never became any good.

AS for me, his D and passing are meeting or exceeding my expectations, as is his 3 point shooting and mid range game. However, I’d be remiss to say I ever would have been happy with 37% from the field. that’s not rough, thats awful. He’ll get better, but he better get a LOT better, and that’s really what we’re worried about. This guy is slated to be our westbrook to Kyrie’s KD, like the comparisons or not. We need a second all-star level talent, and they guy has real red flags about whether or not he’ll get there. No one is jumping ship on him, we’re just expressing concerns, and saying where he could improve to most effectively ease those concerns.

I think this is pretty positive from SI and gets it about right. Remember we are talking about 15 games into his rookie season.

“There’s some fun two-way potential for Waiters and Irving to work off one another, and the roots of their fledgling chemistry are already apparent. The relationship is a bit stilted at this point, as Waiters is often too preoccupied with barreling toward the rim to actually read the passing lanes created by his drives. But with both players capable of initiating the offense and knocking down spot-up looks on the weak side (Waiters has converted an impressive 51.6 percent of his spot-up three-point attempts, per Synergy Sports Technology), the Cavs could have the foundation of a sound drive-and-kick system. That assessment banks on some improvement in Waiters’ playmaking judgment, but we can safely assume that some gains will be made in that regard over the next few seasons.”

Thorpe has been kind of anti-Waiters since the draft. I don’t think he necessarily has a vendetta against a 20 year-old, but he may want to look right all along. Hard to explain what I mean by that.

As mentioned earlier, if he starts finishing at the rim and getting 4-6 free throws a night he’ll be averaging like 22 points a game. I’m still on board with Waiters and would rather have him than anyone who came after him.

Cols, the early returns are a 3-12 record and 37% shooting from the field. Neither of those are positive in the present. The future is still bright, and he certainly has flashed all-star potential, but the early returns have been nothing close to all-star or even decent starter level. I get that he’s young and will improve, so does mallory. But honestly, I had high expectations for waiters, and while he hasn’t shattered my dreams, he hasn’t blown me away with anything I didn’t expect from him enough to make up for the fact that the guy hits 37% from the field. He steals and rebounds and defends well, that was all on the scouting report and I’m glad to see its been translating. He also finished, and that hasn’t translated. He also took contested jumpers with time on the clock, that HAS translated. So overall, the early returns of 3-12 and 37% while otherwise being about where I expected him certainly fall below my expectations, so I’m going to be a little critical. I’ve never heard Mallory say Dion is a bust, or that he won’t get better, just pointing out what he is doing poorly that certainly part of the reason we are losing games.

Once again
There is no problem with being critical. It’s being critical while also being relentlessly negative about players improving.

The key is that he is showing tons of ability. The key is not that he hasn’t put it all together. Who the heck expected Waiters to be a finished product this season let alone the first month or two of this season?

No one. That’s why I don’t get the nonstop criticisms from MF. It’s like he expected Waiters and Irving to be SuperStars right out of the box. That just doesn’t happen.

Kyrieswing, Sessions was an awful facilitator for the Cavs unti about 2 months before he was traded. It was commented on by the Cavs broadcast crew nearly nightly. Seriously anyone who watched Sessions early in his Cavs tenure cringed at us a k of PG skills or even basic feel for facilitating. Mostly useless drives into the middle of the defense…

I know about the finishing numbers and I knew someone would bring those up but Dion has gotten better. He has learned, for instance, how to blow by the big man trailing him and getting the ball up on the board before the block comes. That was something he struggled with earlier in the year. Clear progress that NUMBERS alone don’t tell you. Look, I loved advanced
stats as much as the next guy (it was a big reason I fell in love with Dion, pre-draft) but watching tells you something too. Too much emphasis on numbers to the near exclusion of watching. I watch every minute of every game.

Oh, and for you to dismiss the Wade comparisons (which are apt for a number of reasons) because of the limited number of games played, well, by that “logic” NO discussion of ANY numbers would be valid because he’s played such few games! Funny, that hasn’t stopped anyone on the blog from firing away! Come on, dood…

It s ASININE to fixate on one freakin’ stat like FG% as KyrieSwIrving is. Rookies struggle to shoot! Except Kyrie. Rookies also turnover the ball like mad. But Dion doesn’t. Great passer, good defender with high steals numbers in comparison with his class. Better than advertised 3 point shooter. Tough. Unafraid if the moment. Good Christ, he has exceeded expectations and is playing at least as well as any rookie not named Lillard!!

KJ is right about one thing, Dion is definitely shooting better at the rim now than he was earlier in the season. He created and converted two nice shots near the basket during the Phoenix game that definitely reminded me of Wade.

“As for the finishing thing. I swear, I sometimes feel like some of you don’t actually watch the games. He is ALREADY finishing better right now then earlier in the season. Yes, he can get even better but if you actually watch CLOSELY he really seems to be adjusting and finishing better.” – Kj

Dion Waiters “inside” shots: eFG (that’s EFFECTIVE, not even just FG%): 37%. That is putrid.

Fortunately, everyone in Cleveland (and on CtB) loves Waiter’s potential. The coach loves him, the GM loves him, we all love him, and some of us pretty much just rave about him nonstop because he’ll flash some awesome tools from time to time. (guilty as charged) But when you two guys start analyzing the present with such wild delusions, you’re gonna get called out on it. He’s shooting 38% from the field. You can’t say “BUT HE’S A ROOKIE !@#!@#!@#@!” and then start comparing him to Dwyane Wade. Wade is one of the greatest FINISHING shooting guards in the history of the NBA. He is an undersized, poor shooting guard whose career arc is basically an injury riddled version of Michael Jordan’s early years before he (Jordan) refined his shooting stroke. And that’s going to make him (Wade) a first ballot hall of famer.

No one has made more Wade comparisons that I have regarding Waiters, but there’s two obstacles he faces, and one of them he cannot overcome. Obstacle one is that Dwyane Wade shoots over 65% around the basket area. That is what centers and guys like LeBron James and Tony Parker do. Basically, the 1% of finishers. The elite of the elite. Right now, Dion Waiters does not FINISH like Dwyane Wade. More like Norris Cole. I believe that he has the quickness and first step and has shown the ability to blow by his defender in a Wade-like manner. His obstacle, then, is actually converting at the rmi – and while he had ONE GAME where he finished a bunch of shots creatively, he in no way has a resume that lends to anything remotely worthy of Kj’s hyperventilation. I hope he gets there. If he can take 30-40% of his shots in the painted area or closer and convert at 65%, he will be an all-star, and it really won’t matter that he’s not Steph Curry on PUJITS and that he has a hitch or whatever. What he cannot overcome is that he is not the otherworldly athlete that Dwyane Wade is. And that’s not a poor reflection on him, as Wade is one of the greatest athletes of this generation. Waiters could make up a little ground with what seems to be a head start on 3 point range.

This is why the shot selection stuff and the finishing matters. It is intertwined. Right now Waiters has eFG of 48% on 75% of his shots and they are jump shots. Not good. If these are the only shots he can get off, he WILL be Ricky Davis 2.0. If these are the shots he merely takes when he catches fire, or when there is no other resort, it won’t matter in the slightest. But he’s got to be able to finish. In the postseason, the victor is the team that gets easy buckets in half-court sets. Once upon a time that meant huge Centers with hook shots. Since Jordan it’s meant super-athletic wing players that can create easy shots for themselves and their teammates.

And before Kj accuses someone else of “moving the goal posts inexorably towards his argument” here is the singular distinction that needs to be made.

ACTUAL VS POTENTIAL.

If we IGNORE the potential completely and focus only on the actual, then we are focusing on the present. If we ignore or distort what is actually happening, then we are not responding to analysis. David Thorpe (who DOES overrate his own workout guys) was not writing a redraft or ranking potential. He was ranking now. Right now, Dion Waiters is shooting 37% from the field. If he brings it up to 45 and someone says “he’s getting better”, it’s pretty obvious that, yeah, he’s getting better from 37%. It’s gotta be more than two or three shots in one game that gives us the leverage to say “OMG LOOK HOW AMAZING HE IS NOW.” What I say is “OMG LOOK WHAT HE COULD DO REGULARLY IF HE REACHES HIS POTENTIAL” That’s a huge if.

What you want out of your rookie guard
1. Awesome athletic ability – Check
2. Shows ability to shoot well from the outside – Check, but needs to work on his consistency.
3. Shows the ability to get to the rim – Check
4. Has good ball handling skills – Check
5. Doesn’t turn the ball over – Check

Things to fix
1. Finish better at the rim – This should be very easy for someone as seemingly creative and athletic as Waiters
2. Shoot better from the outside – Also easy as long as you have decent shooting form. It only takes time

You know what, Jason Kidd’s PER is north of 21 right now. Obviously we should try to work out a deal with to trade Waiters for him since, you know, he’s performing better right now. I’ll bet if you tried to rank guards Kidd would be at least 20 spots higher than Waiters right now. So clearly, in conclusion, and judging by what everyone on this blog is obviously advocating for, let’s just trade Waiters already. I know Mallory wants that, I’m convinced that there is no distinction between actual production and future potential. Let’s do it.

Cols714, EVERY NBA wing has the following, or appears to out of college:

1. Awesome athletic ability – Check
2. Shows ability to shoot well from the outside – Check, but needs to work on his consistency.
3. Shows the ability to get to the rim – Check
4. Has good ball handling skills – Check
5. Doesn’t turn the ball over – Check

What Tom is saying is that it is the refinements that they make, and the ability to be that bit better, to take good shots at the right time, that separates the plethora of mediocre wings that haunt NBA locker teams from the Dwyane Wades, Kobe Bryants, Derrick Roses, Kyrie Irvings, etc.
On athleticism, just look at Kyrie – he isn’t like D-Rose in the sense that his athleticism jumps out at you, but not only is he a genius at getting to the rim, he also manages to finish in ways that hide the ball from the blockers and defenders. That’s something Dion needs to work on instead of jacking up mid-range jumpers.

You have to stop taking this stuff personally. CtB is talking about Dion *now* and also his potential. Those are two separate things, and unless his coach makes him improve, he will never live up to the grand future that Kj seems to see for him.

Mallory: Nice SI post. As for the step back J, it’s not a bad shot when the offense is breaking down, but that’s really the only other time, unless one is very very good at it. Mid-range J’s are also a bad shot unless one can convert a high percentage. There’s few guards that are: Mo Williams and Rip Hamilton come to mind. The most efficient shots are 3s and shots at the rim. The least effective shots are long 2s early in the shot clock against a set defense. Why? Because they eschew a higher percentage shot and the odds of rebounding them are lower. Dion pulling up from 18 against a double team is a bad shot, and it’s happening at least once or twice a game. Say he made 10% of these. 3, out of 30. If you take those 27 misses out, suddenly his field goal percentage is respectable. *shrug* He’ll figure it out or he won’t. I will say he’ll never finish like Harrison Barnes did the other night. Good God.

Isaac
No, not every player from college has this. Most college players come into the NBA and realize that they can’t get off shots because they are no longer quicker and more athletic than the competition. What Dion has shown is that he is quicker and more athletic than most of the competition. This is a special skill.

And yes, I and everybody else (except for Mallory I guess) understands that of course we are looking at his potential. It would be dumb and stupid to whine about his play as of right now and not look and see that his future look very bright. Certainly, at this point brighter than most of the players taken in the draft.

MF
Your negative comments and podcasting has been evident all season long. I’m not the only one to point this out. But you got me, you never claimed that Dion has no future in the NBA. I have also never claimed that you claimed this. We can do this all day.

Cols – is there a limit to the depth of your optimism? For example, is CJ Miles “alarming”? Where’s your line in the sand? When does something become critique-able? If right now Waiters was shooting 50% on 3s, would your projection be the same for his career? Or does the b in Y = mx+b just go up, in other words, he’s going to finish his career an 60% 3 point sniper because anyone given time just magically adds like 20% to everything positive and subtracts 30% from everything negative. After that Clippers win I thought “man, Dion can get hot, and he has range”. Did you look at what his current 3PFG% was after that game and extrapolate Ray Allen’s record getting broken? Or is all this just meaningless either way and Waiters is just destined to become a superstar as long as we give him a enough patience and water and wind [or whatever ingredients he will surely get from just having a pulse] to carve out a grand canyonesque HoF career? have you ever seen an NBA player that came into the league and didn’t really improve? Like Tyreke Evans? People were “alarmed” with his shot selection early, and compared him to Dwyane Wade. Guess what, he didn’t fix it. Now he’s a disappointment and the Kings suck. If you could go back in time and talk to those Kings fans, would you reassure them that Tyreke has a sick handle and can get his shot off and CAN do a couple other things that most NBA players can do and they should relax? You know, I keep seeing people bringing up limited turnovers as something awesome about Dion. Here’s how I look at it. He has a sub 13 PER and he’s a rookie that is limiting turnovers. Limiting turnovers is actually something rookie guards improve over time. So if anyone thinks his PER is going to shoot up to 20 next year because he’s going to stop coughing it up so much – he can’t. he already takes care of the ball. he’s going to have to: (DRUM ROLL PUHLEASE) Finish at the rim, and go go the rim more (another way of saying “take less bad shots”)

Sorry if i think shooting percentage from our supposed #2 option (#1 option with kyrie out) is an important stat. The guy was drafted to be a well rounded scorer, yes, but still a scorer. Rookies do struggle shooting, but most can at least get to 40%. Only truely terrible Daniel Gibson types finish at the rim as poorly as waiters has. He’s young, he’s learning, its a small sample. All valid points. But if we are judging the rookies of the year today, many other rookies have been doing more to earn their teams W’s than Dion’s good on ball defense, below average off-ball defense, 1.5 steals, 3 assists, 2 rebounds, and 9.4 missed shots on 12 decent and ~3 terrible shot attempts in 32 minutes per game.

Thats not to say he won’t crack the top ten by the end of the year. But right now, with the brutal schedule and increased responsibility put on him with Kyrie’s injury, he’s expectedly struggled a bit. Most of the guys ahead of him are in better situations, to be sure. But all of these rankings are based on how much better you make your team right now. Dion is making himself better right now, and his 3 assists a game and on ball defense are making his team better right now, but all those missed shots, especially the long contested twos with time on the clock (even just 3 a game for 15 games is ~45 terrible shots) , are downright hurting our chances of winning right now. Most rookies aren’t being asked to do as much, and are thus not put in situations that might expose their growing pains. But at the same time, I think its entirely justified that he be outside the top ten right now. I don’t expect it to stay that way.

Kyrie – i’ve also noticed his on-ball defense is “better”. I put that in quotes because I’m a terrible observer of defense. (We need Nate’s take). But he is certainly working very hard at that end and he is getting a healthy amount of steals. I think he will definitely crack the top 10 by the end of the year. He will be helped a lot by Kyrie being healthy. He’s pressing a lot right now, but that’s good. I’m glad he’s going through the gauntlet and nothing is coming easy from him. Hopefully he doesn’t read this blog or listen to our podcasts or he will get a big head with all the blind faith me and others are constantly putting in his growth potential. Seriously, the coach, the writers, this blog, myself – we have all called him [like] Dwyane Wade[ish, 2.0,] at one time or another. That’s some serious praise for a guy that has really DONE nothing Wade-like yet.

He needs to improve more than a “bit” from 37%. He also needs to improve his off-ball defense more than a “bit”

If he truly wants to be a star, he’ll need to do serious work on rebounds and assists as well. He has all the potential to get there. He’s not nearly as close as you seem to think, and the improvements aren’t nearly as easy or guaranteed either.

no one is saying he won’t improve. But he’ll have to improve a lot just to become a JR Smith.

This is not an impossible question. I’m asking you what you would have to see happen for any criticism to be warranted. I think we can all stop fighting with you if you just say “Guys, NOTHING that happens is going to make me think a negative thought. I don’t need to see ANYTHING discernible this season to be happy. As far as I’m concerned, the team could lose every game from here on out by double digits and I know they are destined for greatness because they are young and it’s only age that needs to change (and I know it will) for this team to be awesome. Nothing that Chris Grant or Waiters or B Scott or Irving or Thompson do can change my mind.” If you say that, then, WE GET IT. We’ll just ignore you and wish we could be so content with sub-optimal results. My cousin is 20 and he plays poker for a living. I’m not worried about how he fills out our PF spot because he’s no where near his prime. And I’m pretty sure he can dribble and pass and throw balls towards hoops. As long as he keeps his cholesterol under control we’ll see him retired to the rafters one day.

Seriously, draw a line in the sand. What would Dion Waiters shot selection have to look like for you to go “Ok, you know what, he needs to actively work to improve this, it might not ‘just happen'”. How bad would his conversion rate at the rim have to be for you to say “I hope he actively does something to change that, because it’s bad.” Like 30%? 25%? How bad does the aggregate have to be before the “potential” and the “flashes of greatness” aren’t enough to satisfy you?

Tom
I don’t like to answer stupid questions like this, but OK.
If Dion wasn’t able to create his own shot, I’d be worried
If Dion wasn’t able to get to the rim, I’d be worried
If Dion hadn’t shown the ability to shoot decently from three, I’d be worried
If Dion turned the ball over a ton, I’d be worried.

None of these things has happened. The worst we can say is that perhaps he should be a bit smarter in shot selection and make a few more shots at the rim.

Yet there is a huge air of negativity around CTB about him that I don’t understand at all.

Cols714….that “huge air of negativity around CtB” is just your perception and you’re reading into things the way you want to read into them.

Are certain writers on this blog hyperbolic? Most certainly. Do they go to extremes from time to time? Of course. But not all of them. Thats why you focus on the ones you enjoy reading and not take anything that the ones you have an issue with get to you. You’ll be surprised how well that works out.

I think that would go for KJ too but taking my own advice, I’ve tuned his comments out and am pretty close to doing the same with yours. No offense.

Mallory, I’m not attacking you. I’m not really attacking anything. I’m moreso thinking about the framing of this season and how it can be productive or unproductive. Thorpe cited a bad game he had where he forced up too much. Something we agree fully on. My point is that sometimes you have to excuse that on a game-by-game basis as a learning experience. After this run where he’s being unfairly asked to put an offensive load on his back (beyond the Andy role that’s been steady) he’s still shooting solid percentages from mid-range and 3.

A contested Dion pull up at 15 seconds in the shot clock from a 41% conversion space may prove to be a better shot than the Alonzo Gee fadeaway at 4 seconds that we would have gotten. What’d you think about the pacing data from 82games? I think Tom has a great point on his finishing. Although Tom might want to look comparatively at eFG, 48% is WAY above average. Harden’s at %42, Wade’s at 38%, Tony Parker’s at 44%. Mont Ellis is at 34%. I’m just singling out high-usage guards. Ricky Davis wouldn’t sniff that percentage in his best year.

Breaking it down further it looks like he gets his best shots in that “early offense” time. Before team d is set and when he can attack decisively. Curiously his 2nd best time is at the end of the shot clock where he CANT meander before pulling up.

I doubt Dion ever cracks 60% at the rim but 53% makes him a more than effective top-tier 2 in the league.

Also, the “people who do this for a living” shot was completely unnecessary. With everyone pretty much accepting Thorpe’s analysis as flawed in that he favors his clients and his circle, why is his opinion beyond criticism? Especially when the criticism is “maybe he’s ignoring the team context and picking who he expects growth from.” I’m sure the increased comment pressure and some clear trolling is annoying but dude, I’m just pulling numbers and seeing how they support or contradict what I’m seeing.

Hey D – nice comment. I confused everyone (myself included) when I tried to make effective FG% meaningful in that post. eFG = (FG + 0.5 * 3P) / FGA. So, someone like Boobie Gibson in 2007 would have had an high eFG since so many of his FG are 3s (which we sort of allow to be a lower %-age). So since I am talking about “inside shots” eFG = FG. So, comparing the players you mentioned, here are the FG%, or eFG% if you prefer on “inside shots”

This is the comparison I was making. Dion’s eFG is comparable because he’s a better 3point shooter right now. One THIRD of his shots are 3s and he’s making them at a .372 clip (excellent – worthy of our praise). However, I am contending that for Dion to become “wade-like” as we are all apparently OK with saying, he’s going to have to generate high percentage shots for himself and his teammates. It’s great that he has range and looks in rhythm when he fires a lot of these. It’s nice that he can hit 3s off the dribble. This is where I said before he can make up some ground on Wade who has never been able to do this because he’s not a great shooter. But he most certainly needs to make a commitment to finishing around the hoop. He does not have Steph Curry’s stroke, so he shouldn’t try to model his game that way. Honestly the JR Smith comparisons are appropriate because there’s a super athlete that can single handedly take over games. He has all the tools, and for 3 straight years people have been waiting for him to go from 6th man to all-star and he’s never made the leap. Imagine what Josh Smith could be if he’d stop being BAD Josh Smith all the time. I’m glad Dion has the “bad shot” weapons in his bag. And despite what KJ says, the Spurs and before them the Magic modeled their entire offenses around taking only efficient “good” shots. It’s real. If Waiters could finish like any of the players you mentioned, we are talking all-star. And right now, I think that is his biggest potential area to add value. So I hope he does because I think he has the tools to do it.

The Lineup: (Click for Author’s Archive)

Nate Smith is an Associate Editor. He grew up in Anchorage, Alaska, and moved to NE Ohio in 2000. He adopted the Cavs in 2003 and graduated from Kent State in 2009 with a BA in English. He can be contacted at oldseaminer@gmail.com or @oldseaminer on Twitter.

Tom Pestak is an Associate Editor. He's from the west side of Cleveland and lives and (mostly) dies by the success and (mostly) failures of his beloved teams. You can watch his fanaticism during Cavs games @tompestak.

Robert Attenweiler is a Staff Writer. Originally from OH, he's long made his home in NYC where he writes plays and screenplays (www.disgracedproductions.com) some of which end up being about Ohio, basketball or both. He has also written for The Classical and the blog Raising the Cadavalier. You can contact him at rattenweiler@gmail.com or @cadavalier.

Benjamin Werth is a Staff Writer. He was born in Cleveland and raised in Mentor, OH. He now lives in Germany where he is an opera singer and actor. He can be reached at blfwerth@gmail.com.

Cory Hughey is a Staff Writer. He grew up in Youngstown, the Gary, Indiana of Ohio. He graduated from Youngstown State in 2008 with a worthless telecommunications degree. He can be contacted at theleperfromwatts@yahoo.com or @coryhughey on Twitter.

David Wood is our Links Editor. He is a 2012 Graduate of Syracuse University with an English degree who loves bikes, beer, basketball, writing, and Rimbaud. He can be reached on Twitter: @nothingwood.

Mallory Factor is the voice of Cavs: The Podcast. By day Mallory works in fundraising and by night he runs a music business company. To see his music endeavors check out www.fivetracks.com. Hit him up at Malloryfactorii@gmail.com or @Malfii.

John Krolik is the Editor Emeritus of Cavs: The Blog. At present, he is pursuing a law degree at Tulane University. You can contact him at johnkrolik@gmail.com or @johnkrolik.

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