New Futures for Nuclear Arms Control: Examining a Framework and Possibilities With Hypersonic Weapons

Madison Estes writes, "There are existing diplomatic mechanisms like the New START Treaty and the Strategic Stability Dialogue that may offer a logical, accessible, and low difficulty starting point for addressing many of the reviewed arguments surrounding hypersonics and bringing each side closer to achieving strategic stability."

Nilanthi Samaranayake writes, "While policymakers are understandably focused on mitigating the domestic crisis, the United States will soon need to demonstrate its ability as the leading global power to deliver relief when requested overseas."

Event Video: Great Power Competition: Assumptions Behind the Headlines

Joshua Tallis, David Knoll, and Nilanthi Samaranayake discussed great power competition broadly as a concept for US national strategy and defense planning, including assumptions behind ideas of power and what it means to compete as policy evolves.

Covid-19 and Competition for Influence in South Asia

Nilanthi Samaranayake writes, "As Covid-19 overwhelms healthcare systems and paralyzes economies across Western Europe and the United States, concern is growing about the potentially devastating impact of the virus in the developing world."

CNA In Depth: Cooperation of Consequence: Lessons from the 2004 Tsunami Response in the Era of COVID-19

Nilanthi Samaranayake writes, “The U.S. will soon need to demonstrate its ability as the leading global power to deliver relief when requested overseas.”

CNA InDepth: “Cooperation of Consequence: Lessons from the 2004 Tsunami Response in the Era of COVID-19”

Cooperative Deployments: An Indispensable Tool for Preparing for the High-End Fight

Eleanore Douglas and David Wallsh write, "Combined planning, training, and deployment over extended periods of time provide all parties involved with unparalleled opportunity to test and advance the limits of integration."

CIMSEC: "Cooperative Deployments: An Indispensable Tool for Preparing for the High-End Fight"

The Fateful Triangle

On this episode, Nilanthi Samaranayake and special guest Tanvi Madan of the Brookings Institution join host Bill Rosenau to discuss, the shifting relationship between India, China and the United States during the Cold War.

CNA In Depth: Antarctica is the New Arctic: Security and Strategy in the Southern Ocean

Ralph Espach and Nilanthi Samaranayake write, “For decades [Antarctica] was largely ignored and left to scientists by treaty, but it is now increasingly under the eye of China, a rising power keen to establish its presence and score influence within the regional governing system.”

CNA InDepth: “Antarctica is the New Arctic: Security and Strategy in the Southern Ocean”

On this episode, from Sputnik to Apollo to Star Wars, we cover the Cold War in space. Steve Wills returns with host Bill Rosenau, joined by special guest Don Brown, who leads the government group at Telesat, a major satellite operator.

"To learn about the challenges of operating in the Norwegian Sea, CSG-8 sought historical guidance from Navy Warfare Development Command, Naval History and Heritage Command, the Information Warfare Community, and embedded representatives [Dan Whiteneck and Joshua Tallis] from the Center for Naval Analyses (CNA)."

Nilanthi Samaranayake says India and Indonesia had a, "shared opinion on EEZ [Exclusive Economic Zone] activity, including on Chinese scientific vessels, freedom of navigation, and a shared interpretation of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which would help to bolster cooperation."

On this episode, Eleanore Douglas and Georgetown University Professor Sean McFate join Bill Rosenau to discuss Operation PBSUCCESS, a covert operation carried out by CIA that deposed Guatemalan President Jacobo Árbenz, and its implications for the modern security environment.

Nilanthi Samaranayake writes, "How observers interpret what is taking place in the Indian Ocean depends on their strategic orientation because so much continues to unfold dynamically here in the realms of security, economics, and governance."

Nilanthi Samaranayake writes, "The idea that Sri Lanka can swing toward a pro-India or a pro-China disposition with a change of leadership belies the constraints on smaller South Asian states in a region that is still dominated by India and increasingly contested by China — and where other major powers such as the United States and Japan play critical roles."

On this first episode of our new occasional series, "Polar Politics," Ralph Espach and Nilanthi Samaranayake join host Joshua Tallis to discuss the strategic implications of the Polar Regions, in an era of Great Power Competition.

Steven Wills writes, "The Navy must find a way to allow for the continued study of naval strategy and history, even in periods when it is not at the bow wave of naval and US government civilian interest. Technological expertise and the art of war must find ways to co-exist in the same sea service."

Madison Estes says, "If U.S. allies, particularly within NATO that have really large anti-nuclear domestic constituencies, perceive that the United States is mismanaging this relationship with Russia and not really putting forward a serious nuclear risk-reduction strategy, it might become more difficult to really unite NATO allies around a common security strategy."

Vince Manzo says, "Deterrence and arms control are two tools that should work in concert with each other, they should be self-reinforcing and part of a comprehensive strategy for reducing nuclear dangers and nuclear risks."

USSTRATCOM Deterrence Symposium 2019: During the Cold War US & Russia constrained nuclear capability via arms control. Are there areas today to consider similar mutual restraint in a multi-polar world?

Political Warfare and Subversion in West Germany

Cornell Overfield says, "The East German leadership did not want a unified Germany. Nevertheless, they pursued these strategies to try to build a resistance in West Germany that would stymie the West German state."

Nilanthi Samaranayake writes, "Laying the groundwork for a commission is a necessary first step in addressing the environmental, humanitarian, and geopolitical threats that will only continue to rise in the Brahmaputra River Basin."

According to the CNA report, Nuclear Arms Control Without A Treaty: Risks and Options after New START, "Without New START's cooperative transparency practices, the US intelligence community would likely devote more resources to monitoring Russian strategic nuclear forces but have less insight and less confidence in its analytical judgements."

Nilanthi Samaranayake says, "The Brahmaputra on its own holds high political and geological stakes for three key countries in Asia—China, India, and Bangladesh, none of which have a water-sharing agreement between them for this river's resources."

Joshua Tallis says, "We can talk about countering piracy, we can talk about countering terrorism, we can talk about countering narcotics and human trafficking, but how do we talk about the coherence of maritime insecurity?"

Running Silent and Algorithmic: The U.S. Navy Strategic Vision in 2019

According to the CNA report, The Origins and Development of A Cooperative Strategy for 21st Century Seapower, CNO Greenert "was looking for a document that was generally authoritative for any audience: The naval officer corps, Capitol Hill, [Office of the Secretary of Defense], friends and allies, potential adversaries . . . whomever."

Vincent Manzo writes, "Current U.S. limited nuclear response options are consolidated on platforms that face near-term challenges from Russian defenses and whose replacements programs are set to arrive on tight timelines."

Defense One: "A Closer Look at the Arguments Against the Low-Yield SLBM"

A 'World-Class' Military: Assessing China's Global Military Ambitions

According to the CNA report, Nuclear Arms Control without a Treaty? Risks and Options After NEW START, "The collapse of New START could, in theory, push Beijing toward strategic nuclear dialogue with the United States, especially if the alternative would be unrestrained competition with a much more powerful nuclear contender."

Joshua Tallis writes, "These forecasts are unequivocally telling us that dense, networked, and littoral communities are an emerging global force."

CIMSEC: "The Case for Maritime Security in an Era of Great Power Competition"

Modi Eyes Fiercer Rivalry with China over Neighbors in Second Term

Nilanthi Samaranayake says, "These countries will be looking to Prime Minister Modi to deliver on outstanding bilateral issues, such as finally signing the Teesta River accord with Bangladesh and resolving fishing disputes with Sri Lanka."

Nilanthi Samaranayake writes, "New Delhi's prerogatives are a factor in the smaller South Asian (SSA) countries' decision making that cannot be underestimated, despite China's expanding range of activities in the region."

According to the CNA report, Nuclear Arms Control Without a Treaty? Risks and Options After New START, "Without New START's cooperative transparency practices, the U.S. intelligence community would likely devote more resources to monitoring Russian strategic nuclear forces but have less insight and less confidence in its analytical judgements."

Defense One: "Nuclear Weapons Are Getting Less Predictable, and More Dangerous"

Pompeo Crashes Brussels Meeting of E.U. Diplomats but Changes Few Minds on Iran

Scott Truver says, "They're [mines] very insidious. Once they're put in the water, they're very hard to detect and hard to defeat."

Vincent Manzo says, "It is possible we could lose strategic nuclear arms control just as the US-Russia relationship is becoming more confrontational than any time since the end of the Cold War, so we need to begin preparing for a world in which there is significant competition with Russia, but no strategic nuclear arms control treaty."

Nilanthi Samaranayake and Alexander Powell join CNA Talks to discuss the tragic terrorist attacks on Easter Sunday in Sri Lanka. Nilanthi provides necessary cultural context discussing the ethnic and religious makeup of the country, and points out that most Sri Lanka observers did not expect to see an attack targeting Christians. Alexander than compares the attack to ISIS actions in other countries in South East Asia. Finally, they both discuss how Sri Lanka might move forward politically and economically. http://cna.libsyn.com/cna-talks-sri-lanka

The U.S. Navy in Review

Scott Truver writes, "If the Navy is serious about competing in and winning this latest strategic competition, then both the appetite and the aperture for change will have to accelerate."

Peter Swartz says, "Part of the reason I don't finish is because I read something else that gets me mad, and causes me to reflect, and I charge off researching that instead of finishing up the last piece."

Peter Swartz writes, "While Mobley unearths more fascinating early war plans, and Hone gives us more at-sea combat actions, both books are really about the development of the thinking of previous generations of U.S. Navy officers."

Proceedings: "Progressives in Navy Blue and Learning War Book Reviews"

Proceedings Podcast Episode 78 - Peter Swartz Talks Naval Strategy

Peter Swartz says, "The CNA guys were using open sources, Russian open sources, and pooh-poohed for that. And it turned out that the Russian open sources, for the very reasons that they had always argued, turned out to be the most accurate place to go for your stuff."

Nilanthi Samaranayake writes, "Despite the limits of China's current presence and the challenges to its expansion, U.S. policymakers should not ignore the possibility that Chinese activities to secure the Maritime Silk Road could increase and destabilize the region."

Tribune 242: "Stateside: Careful Picking Friends When Times Are Tough"

China in a World with No U.S.-Russia Treaty-Based Arms Control

According to the CNA report, Nuclear Arms Control Without a Treaty? Risks and Options After New START, "The end of transparency and verification measures could generate mutual worst-case thinking and planning in the United States and Russia on strategic nuclear weapons."

"Joining CNA in the early 1990s, Swartz earned a reputation as an expert on Navy strategy, policy, and operations and on military history, organization, and culture."Pull Together: "Peter M. Swartz: Using Naval History to Develop Maritime Strategy"

Vincent Manzo says, "These treaties help reduce suspicion and fear. They help both countries [The U.S. and Russia] have confidence that they have the forces they need today and out into the future."WNPV: "Scientist: Tumultuous Time for Arms Control"

Nilanthi Samaranayake writes, "As it works more closely with the smaller South Asian countries, the United States will need to take a nuanced approach toward China's expanding role in the region and should not necessarily view Chinese investments and loans as a direct threat to US influence."United States Institute of Peace: "China's Engagement with Smaller South Asian Countries"

Vince Manzo says, "I do see based on both country's policies the United States and Russia having strong incentives to exceed New START levels without a treaty." (3:37:09)CSIS: "The Future of Arms Control"

Vince Manzo writes, "The United States, Russia, and China are all beginning to grapple with the technologies and trends that underlie entanglement."H-Diplo: "Article Review 113 on 'Escalation through Entanglement: How Vulnerability of Command-and-Control Systems Raises the Risks of an Inadvertent Nuclear War.'"

In an article about the CNA study, Nuclear Arms Control Without A Treaty? Risks and Options after New START, Vince Manzo says, "Increased opacity between U.S. and Russian strategic nuclear forces would unfold within the broader context of growing mistrust and diverging perceptions about strategy, intentions, and perceptions."Reuters: "Treaty's End Would Give U.S., Russia Impetus to Make More Nukes: Study"

In a new report, CNA's Vince Manzo analyzes the future of nuclear arms control without a treaty. As of today, there is just one nuclear arms control treaty in place between the U.S. and Russia – New START – and it is uncertain if President Trump or Vladimir Putin are willing to extend or renew the current treaty, set to expire in 2021. Read more.

War on the Rocks publishes Vince Manzo and John Warden’s “Want to Avoid Nuclear War? Reject Mutual Vulnerability with North Korea.”

Breaking Defense quotes Steven Wills in “LCS Lives: They Still Count in Age of Frigates.”

USNI publishes Peter Swartz's review of Sea Power: The History and Geopolitics of the World’s Oceans in Proceedings Magazine.

Strategy and Policy Analysis

The Strategy and Policy Analysis (SPA) program is CNA’s locus for analyzing issues of national strategy. Our core competencies include:

U.S. national strategy publications, specifically their maritime components

The role of sea power in U.S. strategy

Nuclear weapons policy

Deterrence, compellence, and reassurance (theory and application)

Real-world military operations

Innovations in naval warfighting and naval warfare

Futures planning and long-term trend analysis

Modalities of implementing completed strategies

One of SPA’s primary responsibilities is to help the Department of the Navy and the Department of Defense assess how naval, maritime, and national strategy is written, to improve the overall process of strategy development. Our Capstone Strategy Series is a central example of this work.

In addition to studying the process of strategy writing, SPA analysts are also deeply integrated in supporting the substance of strategic thought, providing warfighters, policymakers, and analysts with the subject matter expertise to address the Nation’s biggest questions. Our ongoing co-sponsorship of the Kiel International Seapower Symposium is one example of SPA’s commitment to shaping the dialogue on strategic issues.

SPA’s project approach is multidisciplinary, leveraging the diverse experiences of a team that includes: