At the mid-point of 2013, We are happy to maintain its current forecasts for auto production, sales and trade in Turkey, but warns that there are a number of downside risks to our forecasts, with ongoing economic weakness holding the potential to impact the industry heavily over H213.

Much depends on the political outlook in Turkey. Our current auto forecasts are based on an estimation that the recent outbreak of widespread protests against the government will gradually subside. If we were to see an escalation of violence or a more severe disruption to government stability, this would quickly add momentum to capital outflows. Given Turkey´s sizeable external imbalances, this would likely de-stabilise the economy and create a recessionary environment.

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