Predictable and strong political incentives determine the speed of EV-deployment

We expect a continued and strong growth in EV-sales in 2018. According to a recent survey, up to 45 percent of all new car sales will be electric, provided that the car producers can meet the demand.

The survey was conducted by Opinion AS and commissioned by the Norwegian Electric Vehicle Association and Nordic Energy Research.

– Norwegian consumers are ready to abandon fossil fuel cars. Now it is up to politicians to keep a steady course and for car producers to ramp up production of EVs, says Christina Bu Secretary General for the Norwegian Electric Vehicle Association.

By 2020, 400 000 EVs will be roaming the roads of Norway, according to estimates derived from the survey.

On schedule to meet 2025-target

If these predictions holds true, all personal cars sold in Norway in 2025 will be zero-emission vehicles. In 2017, the market share of BEVs sold in Norway was 21 percent. This resulted in 150 000 EVs registered in Norway by end of 2017. This number exceeds earlier estimates, but such a landslide rollout did not happen by itself:

-In Norway, potential EV-buyers have to stand in long lines for several EV-models. The pent-up demand exceeds what car producers will manage to cover. This is an unfortunate situation. In addition, the increasing number of EVs needs to be matched by a massive rollout of charging stations. The Norwegian consumers follow the wishes of politicians, says Christina Bu.

Norwegians fear that politicians will walk away from their EV-policies

The survey indicates that consumers have less confidence in politician´s ability to maintain a predictable EV-policy. Norwegians embrace the move towards electric mobility, but almost half (44 percent) are not confident that politicians will do what it takes to achieve the target; All personal cars sold in Norway in 2025 should be zero-emissions vehicles.

–The Nordic EV-survey shows that the Norwegian population is prepared to leave the fossil fuel cars behind. The politicians have to ensure that the increasing fleet of EVs are provided with charging opportunities both at home and fast-charging stations across the country. This includes at least 1000 new fast-charging stations and a massive rollout of home-charging in apartment buildings. We would like to see a comprehensive plan for how the government – both local and national – will deliver on these charging needs. Again, policies matter, says Christina Bu.

The other Nordic countries lags behind

Similar questions asked in the other Nordic countries indicates that Norway are miles ahead. Estimated EV-sales for 2018 in Norway are higher than all the other Nordic countries combined.

–The Norwegian EV-market got a head start due to a predictable and stable policy framework. The other Nordic countries need to formulate similar policy frameworks if they want to compete with Norway. Iceland - and to some extent Sweden - are picking up pace. Finland is slower, and Denmark is experiencing a backlash. EVs in Denmark have become less attractive. These are the unquestionable trends uncovered by the survey, says Christina Bu.

The barriers towards EV rollout are diverse

People are held back by range anxiety, inadequate charging infrastructure, sticker price and uncertainty with respect to durability of batteries. Charging and range are the main barriers in Norway, whereas price is the prime concern in the other Nordic countries.

–This difference is striking evidence that incentives such as reduced fees, lower VAT, free parking and toll road passage, are primary reasons for choosing an EV. EVs are not yet able to compete with internal combustion engines on sticker price. Policy intervention is therefore needed, says Bu.

–Concerns over range and charging infrastructure are real, but the batteries have proven to be surprisingly durable. Good public outreach can reduce this misconception, argues Bu.

Key findings from the Nordic EV Survey 2018

Norway:

11 percent of the Norwegian respondents would buy an EV next time they buy a car.

27 percent of those intending to buy an EV will do it within the coming 12 months

That would result in a 45 percent market share of new cars sold in 2018.

21 percent consider range the biggest barrier for buying an EV.

19 percent of the respondents considered lack of charging oportunitities at home, at work and elsewhere to be the biggest obstacle.

6 percent considers high sticker price to be the biggest barrier

44 percent of all respondents fear that politicians will walk away from their EV-policies.

Sweden:

4 percent of the Swedish respondents would buy an EV next time they buy a car.

12 percent of those intending to buy an EV will do it within the coming 12 months

14 percent consider range the biggest barrier for buying an EV.

21 percent of the respondents considered lack of charging opportunities at home, at work and elsewhere to be the biggest obstacle.

28 percent considers high sticker price to be the biggest barrier

Danmark:

2 percent of the Danish respondents would buy an EV next time they buy a car.

3 percent of those intending to buy an EV will do it within the coming 12 months

13 percent consider range the biggest barrier for buying an EV.

22 percent of the respondents considered lack of charging opportunities at home, at work and elsewhere to be the biggest obstacle.

24 percent considers high sticker price to be the biggest barrier

Finland:

1 percent of the Finnish respondents would byy an EV next time they buy a car.

17 percent of those intending to buy an EV will do it within the coming 12 months

14 percent consider range the biggest barrier for buying an EV.

30 percent of the respondents considered lack of charging opportunities at home, at work and elsewhere to be the biggest obstacle.

31 percent considers high sticker price to be the biggest barrier

Island:

8 percent of the Icelandic respondents would by an EV next time they buy a car.

25 percent of those intending to buy an EV will do it within the coming 12 months

20 percent consider range the biggest barrier for buying an EV.

22 percent of the respondents considered lack of charging opportunities at home, at work and elsewhere to be the biggest obstacle.

19 percent considers high sticker price to be the biggest barrier

More results and figures at www//elbilbarometeret.no

Press contact:

Petter Haugneland

Norwegian EV Association

Email: petter@elbil.no

+47 98234699

[1]The market share for EVs in Norway by 2018 is estimated based on respondents saying that they are highly likely to buy an EV within the next year. This percentage (3%) is multiplied by number of households in Norway (2376971) since car purchasing related to households rather than per capita. This adds up to total sale of 71 078 EVs in 2018. Provided that total the car sales in 2018 are equal to 2017 (158 650) leads to 45 percent of total sales of all new cars.