Hundreds of schools are facing the threat of closure and takeover following
the introduction of tougher GCSE exam standards, it emerged on Wednesday
night.

As about 650,000 pupils receive their results today, rising numbers of state secondaries in England will fall below rigorous targets imposed by the Government

This year, for the first time, all schools have been forced to ensure that 40 per cent of pupils gain at least five good grades, including in English and maths. It is up on the 35 per cent target by which schools were judged last summer.

Experts fear that as many as 250 schools will fail to hit the benchmark as a series of reforms to GCSEs imposed over the past few years leads to overall pass rates flatlining.

Recent changes include the imposition of harder science exams, a cut in the number of pupils sitting easier vocational qualifications and the introduction of rules for examiners designed to prevent year-on-year grade inflation.

Last week the publication of A-level results revealed a drop in the proportion of A grades awarded for the first time in more than 20 years.

Ministers have warned that schools that fall below national GSCE targets could be closed or pulled out of local authority control and turned into independent academies run by a third-party sponsor. Failing academies could undergo a change of leadership.

In a series of separate developments, it also emerged that:

Š A report from the Institute for Fiscal Studies raised serious doubts over maintaining GCSE exams at 16 when most pupils remain in education until 18, saying the system resembled a “leftover” from a bygone age;

Š Ofqual, the qualifications watchdog, is to review the A*-to-G grading system because of concerns that too many pupils gain high results, making it hard to differentiate between bright and average candidates;

Š A survey by the Federation of Small Businesses showed that eight in 10 firms believe school leavers are not prepared for the world of work, with the biggest concerns raised over literacy and numeracy standards;

Š The first school in Britain — Wellington College — to offer a radically alternative qualification involving exams that are not marked externally saw almost three-quarters of students achieve top grades.

Brian Lightman, the general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders, said: “GCSE exams have undoubtedly been more difficult this year, which is all the more cause to celebrate pupils’ results. But with the floor targets being raised to 40 per cent, it is going to be immensely challenging for school leaders.

“The Government needs to be realistic and allow schools the time to move towards these very difficult and demanding standards.”

The Department for Education said the Government made “no apologies for setting high expectations and will not hesitate to step in where there is evidence of chronic underperformance”.

“It is right that minimum expectations of schools should continue to rise,” a spokesman said.

Michael Gove, the Education Secretary, has said he could abolish GCSEs in favour of “explicitly harder” qualifications modelled on the old O-level. The new courses could be sat by 2014.

About 650,000 pupils in England, Wales and Northern Ireland will receive their GCSE results today.

Last summer, 23.2 per cent of exam papers were graded at least an A, the 23rd successive increase, but it is believed that efforts to stop grade inflation and a shift towards more rigorous academic subjects may lead to top-end scores stalling for the first time this year.

Last year, government floor targets dictated that all English state schools ensured at least 35 per cent of pupils gained five A* to C grades, including in English and maths.

Schools were also expected to satisfy “progress measures” that chart the improvements made by pupils over five years. Some 107 fell short. This year, the target has risen to 40 per cent. Last summer, 251 schools fell below this higher mark. With grades expected to flatline overall, it is predicted that a similar number could be exposed.

Prof Alan Smithers, the director of the Centre for Education and Employment Research at Buckingham University, said: “Some schools, including those that are perfectly effective, are going to be exposed by this simply because they have a lot of children who will struggle with the demands of an academic education.”

Two years ago, Wellington College in Berkshire became the first school in the country to offer the Middle Years Programme, a qualification run by the International Baccalaureate Organisation which abandons external assessment and places more focus on problem solving.

On Wednesday night, it emerged that 73 per cent of pupils sitting the new qualification had gained the two top grades. Anthony Seldon, the school’s headmaster, said: “It has been a liberating experience. Following the hugely specified regime of GCSEs isn’t very ennobling for teachers and can be quite demoralising.”