Comments on: Rinse and repeathttp://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/08/rinse-and-repeat.html
Fearless commentary on finance, economics, politics and powerFri, 09 Dec 2016 17:32:21 +0000hourly1https://wordpress.org/?v=4.4.5By: Richard Klinehttp://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/08/rinse-and-repeat.html#comment-12860
Wed, 13 Aug 2008 14:19:00 +0000http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/08/rinse-and-repeat/#comment-12860So S, oh please, don’t go there. Look, Russia has made it _crystal clear_ for years that it would do anything and everything to defend Abkhazia and S Ossetia. Russia massively spies on Georgia, both in pursuit of this particular policy and for Russia’s larger national interests. Boo-frickin-hoo. With Georgia inviting in hostile military units and angling for frankly destabilizing alliances, wouldn’t Russian spying follow as a matter of policy and commonly understood self-interest _for any other nation except this one you seem to hold in visceral dislike_.

Russia has manifestly maintained dedicated troop units on the Caucasus front with defined mission plans for years exactly to forestall any Georgian attempted coup de mains. Russia didn’t and doesn’t need to turn a hair to respond, and in this instance was ready to go mighty quick. Russia made it clear after the Kosovo ‘resolution’ that it would respond in the Caucasus, and declarations of long term committments were in the cards. Russia has had every intention of economically integrating these two territories with _Russia_ regardless of any pro forma status of a nominal and nonsensical border. So what? The inhabitants of these two areas are determined NOT to be citizens of Georgia, and Georgia has done nothing to convince them otherwise: their right to their own soil on which they have lived for centuries precludes and Georgian claim of sovereignty over them, especially in absence of their consent. Prove to me any pattern of Russian deployments, and I’ll listen. Google _is not_ an adequate resource for researching this issue; I hope you have other loops than that which you are tied into.

For the record, many of Russia’s actions in Georgia since the secession of that country have been unjust, hamhanded thuggery, and only worsened relations. Maintaining their bases in Georgia after independence was an arrogant mistake, though given the action they were involved in in Chechnya perhaps understandable from a strategic standpoint. The Russkis are no angels. If there is a fight, they mean to be ready, and to win it. Wild claims that this whole engagement in the Caucasus of the last week were ‘a Russian plot’ just do not have substantive FACTS behind them as opposed to rumors and memes. Do the research and publish a referenced analysis, and that’s a different matter. Nothing in the way this has played supports the ‘Russian plot’ scenario to me, having looked at many plots in many places, and having followed the local politics and strategy in the Caucasus closely. I am at least as familiar with Russian actions in Chechnya and Afghanistan as you claim to be S, unless you have actually set boots on the soil there. Rumors of drones and suspicions of malice aren’t evidence. Georgian armored units well inside S Ossettia _are_ what is known in the trade as “facts on the ground.” Get better ones if you have a point to prove. Your claims of my state of mind on the issue are uniformed, and not backed up by any countervailing argument and evidence.

To Anon of 1:54, I *heart* you completely. In most parts of Europe and many other places in the world, citizenry has access to multiple, competing news sources, which actually manage to put disparate views before the public, letting relevant information disseminated in the process if only accidentally at times. In the US, we have a monovocal Truthspeak Network which I have come to find quite frightening actually in the last half dozen years. The Fourth Estate has frankly and rankly abdicated its role. What we have now, is a latter day ‘Yellow Media,’ for which I haven’t yet heard or coined a catchy tag. But what we don’t get in this country anymore is informed, rational, or even minimally evenhanded reportage: we have propacasters in our ears every minute. And that’s no good thing.

After widespread calls concerning electoral fraud in the 2 November 2003 parliamentary elections in Georgia, weeks of protests culminated in protestors storming Parliament and forcing the resignation of President Eduard Shevardnadze. Modeled on the Serbian revolution – and utilising similar tactics to Otpor – the opposition was highly organised and led by the Kmara (Enough) youth movement. Following the removal of Shevardnadze, presidential elections were held (on 4 January 2004), and Mikhail Saakashvili, leader of the united opposition groups, was elected president. This picture of the revolution was painted for most of the world by the media. Behind the scenes though, the US had applied its entire panoply of “democracy promoting” devices to ensure, that the revolution was successful on their terms (these of course, included the NED and USAID). (1) Forbes magazine warmly described the revolution as “the toast of the West” led by a “handsome, American-schooled young leader named Mikhail Saakashvili, supported by an international democracy lobby.” (2)

As in previous “revolutions” overt support to opposition groups was crucially supplemented and strengthened though diplomatic and economic coercion. In July 2003, the Financial Times noted that the US “delivered the most painful blow to Shevardnadze” when his “one-time friend and partner, former US secretary of state James Baker, …told [Shevardnadze] he needed to be far more democratic to be assured of US support.” (3) In 2003 the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) suspended their support for development projects in Georgia (however, once Shevardnadze resigned, both organisations announced their intentions to re-engage with Georgia) and just before the elections on 24 September, the US’s State Department made the surprise announcement that they would be halving their financial aid to Georgia, which had stood at $100 million in 2003. (4) The resulting financial pressure must have been disastrous for a country heavily reliant on foreign aid, Georgia was the second largest per capita recipient of American aid (after Israel) having received over US$1.8 billion from the US in the past decade. (5) It also seems likely that the opposition groups had diplomatic help from the American Ambassador for Georgia, Richard Miles. Interestingly, Ambassador Miles had close associations with “democracy promoters” in East Europe, as he had been the Ambassador for Azerbaijan during the 1992 coup, which brought Heydar Aliyev to power and Ambassador in Yugoslavia during the Serbian revolution. (6)

‘Democratic’ imperialism has been an extension of the Cold War; there are always limits.

]]>By: Mark Stonemanhttp://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/08/rinse-and-repeat.html#comment-12821
Tue, 12 Aug 2008 18:16:00 +0000http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/08/rinse-and-repeat/#comment-12821I enjoyed this piece, because it introduced me to some new blogs and offered some good tips on some of the spin out there. But then at the end a leap in logic occurs that bothers me. You go from pointing to spin on the Georgians side to making criticism of the Russian’s actions illegitimate. Thing is, we can do the same thing with spin on the Russian side. Finding the truth based on where the spin is won’t work.

I myself was bothered by how Georgia marched into this thing and provoked the Russian bear. But let’s not forget how Russia did not stop after it kicked Georgian troops out of South Ossetia. And let’s not forget how speedy its response was. (Don’t talk about vacationing Russian leaders. German leaders were on vacation in 1870 and 1914, and that didn’t mean they had nothing to do with the outbreak of these two wars.)

No, there is plenty of blame to go around. Clear sides there are not. And certainly the US has done plenty to undermine the value of international consensus. But this isn’t about blame anymore. It’s about Russia’s relations with Europe and the US. On that note, I’m glad Russia declared an end to hostilities.

The difference in views on the events in Ossetia has its own explanation. Russian now have the opportunity to receive information from different sources. In addition to Russian television channels we can watch television of GB, US, Germany … Many Russian speak foreign languages and can read information on the Internet. We can compare different information. People in the West do not have such an opportunity. They are victims of one-sided false propaganda. We sympathize with their situation

I read your piece, and the links to MoA. I apprecaite the perspective.

My how afraid, how deeply fragile our populace has become if they cannot tolerate even a waft of contradiction to the status quo exhibited here. Cheers for interrupting us as we strategize on how to best protect our spoils as we devour the goods of the earth with the inconvenient truth about its violent and remorseless undercarriage. I do not take it as a means of inciting shame about our state, as much as a sober recommendation that we not lose sight of all the ramifications of world domination that we have inherited and look to rule with a minimum of ethical and moral shortcomings. Which I truly mean. I think we intend to be benevolent in our leadership of the free world. We must be realistic, it is a role that demands much that is distasteful and far from Eagle Scout perfection. To me, the worst thing we could do, is recede into a self-promting envelope of fantasy that we are always in the right, without fail, and heroes always win.

And, the idea that our current financial morass is not implicated is certainly not upheld by the pre-scheduled conference call with Wall Street. That can of worms was opened before this post.

]]>By: Shttp://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/08/rinse-and-repeat.html#comment-12805
Tue, 12 Aug 2008 16:02:00 +0000http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/08/rinse-and-repeat/#comment-12805Richard Kline: google Georgia, Russia Drones. You have no idea what you are talking about. Check out informed comemnts on Russia building a rail extension into SO – for humanitarian purposes. I can’t speak with authority on cause and effect as I and no one knows. i can speak with historical context knowing what the Russians did in Afghan and Chechnya.
]]>By: Richard Klinehttp://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/08/rinse-and-repeat.html#comment-12795
Tue, 12 Aug 2008 14:08:00 +0000http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/08/rinse-and-repeat/#comment-12795Anyone arguing that ‘Russia baited the Georgians into x’ really needs to advance some kind of solid proof. Russia has had significant forces on the Caucasus border for years. Whether there state of readiness was or was not changed is something that can be verified. To this point this ‘meme’ strikes me as nonsensical without any support in recorded events. I’m not saying it’s beyond possibility; I am saying it’s absent of credibility to this point.

Quoting Paul, for which thanks for your post: “An unprovoked attack on the civilians of Ossetia and Russia responded as they were in fact bound to do by their UN-mandated peacekeeping obligations. Russia also immediately called a UN Security Council session where they tabled a resolution – which was blocked by the US and UK because it called for both sides “to renounce the use of force”. These are two well-reported, well-substantiated _facts_. Georgia moved after announcing a ceasefire. Russia went to the UN, before a single Russian soldier, plane, or missile is reported to have entered Ossetia other than those already stationed there under a known agreement. And asked for a firm statement by the Security Council. _And_ was blocked from getting that by the US, the UK, and to my recollection France. That is not the action of a country planning to ‘invade Georgia.’ Did the Russkis snooker the leadership of the US, UK, and FR into somehow refusing to block an intervention? Please. So this Russian ‘invasion’: the US, UK, and FR had an ample, gold-plated invitation to head it off and they did nothing of the sort. That salient fact is getting precious little coverage in the MSM announcing to all the “unfair treatment of plucky Georgia.” Tripe of the most rotten yardage, that last.

To grasp the slant in all this, look at the coverage of the ‘human side,’ here. We are seeing one side, numerous little vignettes with panicked Georgians about chaos, casualties, and ruin, and to be sure the suffering of those individuals in Georgia is very real and not to be denigrated. —But we hear nothing substantive of the sufferings of the Ossetes, hundreds of whom are dead defending their homes. Despite the fact that footage and reportage on this IS available; the Russians are airing plenty of it. That ‘lack of balancing’ in the US and Western MSM makes it very clear we are being served propaganda here. And no, I have no confidence in the American public that they will sort it out. Twenty years of recent experience demonstrate incontestably that Peoria eats this dreck up.

I have no brief for the Russians. Putin is a thug, but a successful one. That said, here are several salient issues, all of them more important than anything which happens in Georgia. Since 89, the US has continuously exploited Russia’s _temporary_ weakness territorially while acting in a hostile manner. Those missiles we want to aim at them from Poland and the Czech Republic: that is a hostile endeavor, no two ways about it. It’s not a question of ‘restarting the Cold War’ since as far as US actions are concerned at least we never _ended_ it. The continual effort in the US press to blame Russia for ill feeling between the states despite continued hostile Us actions is lamentable jinogism of the worst sort.

Point Two: Borders are not forever. Oh, in our modern arrogance we seem to think that these will stay were they were redrawn in 19 or 45 or 89 or, well, wherever is most advantageous for us. But look, borders change, and usually involuntarily. The first issue isn’t where is the line but what is the rapport? Can adjacent peoples get along? Changing borders is usually accompanied by many people losing money, and a fair amount of folks getting dead, so it’s nothing to look forward to or advocate over strongly. But the “‘Borders I like must not be changed” thing is jejeune legalism in a world where hard heads and missile weapons keep most fenceposts in place over time. (Personally, I’d rather see all borders abolished rather than any defended by force, but I don’t see the other 97% of the population coming around to that view any time soon.)

Ukraine is the real problem, and big one. If one were to choose an area where a truly nasty grinding war with major negative repercussions could start, Ukraine is in the top three of four worries. When the Russian half of Ukraine decides to scrap the artificial border drawn up by nasty Joe Steel and secede, and I believe that they will sometime in the next generation, we will find out who holds what cards. And US adventurism in E Europe is only exacerbating that possibility. We are ‘not helpful’ in our involvement. Our endorsing the secession of Kosovo from Serbia only justifies the east end of the Ukraine to do the same. One can’t say the Russians are playing nice there, but for them it’s serious business. I worry about that situation quite a lot. And how it is going to be played out will get some light shed on it by the dress rehearsal we now observe in Georgia.

And BTW watch China’s reaction to Russia in this. . . . Won’t bother them a bit, I expect, and _that_ material fact says the US is outnumbered, outmaneuvered, outthought, and if it wants to fight at the margins will be outfought. Georgia and Ukraine are no vital interest to US, and our adventurism there will get us neither gain nor glory. At best; at the very best.