Question

A particular football team is known to run 30% of its plays to the left and 70% to the right. Jerry, a player on an opposite team notes that the right guard shifts his stance most of the time (80%) when plays go to the right and that he uses a balanced stance the remainder of the time. When plays go to the left, the guard takes a balanced stance 90% of the time and the shift stance the remaining 10%. On a particular play, Jerry notes that the guard takes a balanced stance.
1. What is the probability that the play will go to the left?
2. If you were Jerry, what direction would you prepare to defend, if you saw the balanced stance?