Treasury Action: the bond market is treading cautiously Treasury Action: the bond market is treading cautiously as fundamentals seem to have gone by the wayside for now. Neither Greek uncertainties, continued violence in Ukraine, nor some weakness in equities are motivating much safe-haven buying. Treasuries also are seeing little demand from overseas accounts despite further widening in credit spreads, which continues to baffle many strategists, who are still looking at curve flattening trades as well. The potential for a June Fed rate hike are keeping some sidelined ahead of the FOMC minutes and next week's "Humphrey-Hawkins" testimony from Yellen. A hefty corporate calendar has weighed recently, but today's slate is limited. The 10-year Treasury yield has edged up to 2.05%, with the bond at 2.66%, the highest since the start of the year.

Futures trade near fair value ahead of openStock futures are slightly lower following the release of the first economic data point of the week. The Empire Manufacturing report came in at 7.8 versus the consensus outlook of 8.0. Last month, it had a reading of 9.95.

U.S. Empire State preview: U.S. Empire State preview: Empire State should hold steady at 10.0 in February (median 8.3) from January. Forecast risk is downward, however, given the potential drag from falling oil prices. This compares to a recent low of -7.8 in January and a high of 28.0 in September. preview for more detail.

07:55 EDT

N.Y. FX Outlook N.Y. FX Outlook: The dollar is lower against the European major currencies this morning, with EUR-USD gains leading the way. The single currency rallied to 1.1449, levels last seen on February 5, despite the EU/Greek talks breakdown on Monday, where many now think some sort of deal is possible this week. USD-JPY moved off its nearly two-week low of 118.25, peaking at 118.92 into the N.Y. open, though overall remains in a holding pattern ahead of the BoJ meeting later this week. The U.S. calendar reveals the February N.Y. Fed index at 8:30 EST, along with the February NAHB housing market index at 10:00 EST. December Treasury TIC flows are due at 16:00 EST.