Don’t count out Rick Perry, say experts

AUSTIN — Political strategists and experts on Wednesday cautioned against counting Gov. Rick Perry out of the Republican race for president, saying a fat campaign war chest and a skillful use of advertising can make up for poor debate performances and a dearth of policy specifics that some say have the Texas governor’s popularity in free fall.

With $15 million in the bank, what his camp insists is a strong campaign organization in early primary states and economic plans he is poised to roll out this week, Perry remains the top conservative alternative to Mitt Romney for the GOP presidential nomination, Perry strategists said.

“The Republican grassroots and activists are clearly uncomfortable and suspicious of (former Massachusetts) Gov. Romney. So it quickly becomes Romney versus the conservative wing of the Republican Party, which is a pretty big wing,” said Ray Sullivan, Perry’s communications director.

“So it goes back to which of the conservative candidates have the record, the abilities, the financing, campaign infrastructure and winning experience to go the distance and to win the nomination,” Sullivan added. “And we certainly believe that Governor Perry is the conservative best-positioned and best able to go the distance.”
Sullivan called Perry “the complete package when it comes to a successful Republican candidate.”

Not hardly, said Romney spokesman Ryan Williams, whose candidate enjoyed a shot in the arm with the endorsement of New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who carries conservative support.

“Rick Perry will do and say anything to distract from his floundering campaign and cratering poll numbers,” Williams said of Sullivan’s criticism. “Perry has embarrassed himself with a series of disastrous debate performances and outraged grassroots activists with his support for liberal policies that encourage illegal immigration. The Perry campaign is clearly beginning to realize their biggest problem is that the more voters see their candidate, the less they like him.”

Experts and activists aren’t dismissing Perry, though they said he has a steep hill to climb.

“I don’t count Perry out, and not just because he has the money,” said New Hampshire GOP activist Fergus Cullen. “I think part of Perry’s problem is that voters have been making first impressions over the TV, and specifically, in the lowlight reels from the debates. Activists here haven’t seen him at the county Lincoln Day dinner or picnic or headlining an event for the state party, so when he stumbled, there wasn’t a bed of goodwill to fall back on.”

“Perry does need to come out with some economic plan — any economic plan,” Cullen said.

Perry soared to the top of the polls after his August jump into the race, but he’s since slipped. He’s been hurt by less-than-solid debate performances, questions about his policies on issues including immigration and his brash comments, such as calling people “heartless” if they disagreed with allowing in-state tuition for the children of illegal immigrants.

His diminished profile was evident in Tuesday’s debate, when he seemed largely relegated to the sidelines, eclipsed by Romney and Herman Cain.

The latest Gallup tracking poll, however, offers some reason for optimism for the Perry camp. Although Cain has far more intense support among Republican primary voters than does Perry, the poll found that the Texas governor remains popular with the people most likely to pick delegates.

Perry has a 63 percent favorable rating and a 26 percent negative rating — a net positive rating of 37 percent. And despite all the negative press coverage he has received, Perry’s approval rating has dropped only 10 percentage points (from 73 to 63) since its high in late August.

“He certainly could get back into the game, although it will be harder in New Hampshire than nationally,” said Andrew E. Smith, associate professor of political science at the University of New Hampshire and director of the UNH Survey Center.

New Hampshire has a high turnout, so activists don’t determine the winner, and the electorate is more moderate than in other early-voting states, he said.

“But Perry has enough money that he can focus on Iowa, and work to solidify his position as THE conservative candidate, and face Romney with momentum when he gets to New Hampshire,” Smith said by email.

Jim Granato, director of the Hobby Center for Public Policy at the University of Houston, said it’s “getting less likely” that Perry can get back in the game.

“The Christie endorsement hurt. His debate performances lack policy content to address pressing economic problems,” Granato said. “He does have money, so that will help. But, he will have to detail an economic plan soon.”

Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, said while some say Perry is finished, paid television and campaign organization will take over from debates in mid-December.

“We have $15 million reasons not to write Perry off yet — all in the bank,” Sabato said.