Yeah, too bad he won't answer my question, which makes all the difference. It's interesting to me because even zippy's article posted above doesn't actually state whether these sales figures are based on dealer-to-public sales or manufacturer-to-dealer sales. Contractually, dealers are required to take (and "buy") pretty much whatever the factory sends them. Then the manufacturers can claim record sales even while those same cars are still sitting on the dealership lot unsold.

When you see sales numbers, they're typically factory-to-dealer. You can add context to those numbers by checking dealership inventory numbers and the average time on lot for new cars at dealerships.

I don't have the numbers handy, but I've heard that the average time a car spends on the lot has been falling.

Then it's really not "sales" in the sense that it's an indicator of economic improvement for the public as a whole and therefore is a misleading metric.

Except it isn't because the days of inventory isn't changing dramatically up or down from seasonal trends. Days inventory is up like...13 days from last year, which given the upward trajectory in car sales isn't that earth shattering. Also, this year the automotive industry had quite a few refreshes in their models.

Finally, inventories start building up during this part of the year in anticipation of higher sales in the first and second quarter. So, no, this economic indicator is not at all misleading, it's just pointing to a reality that you and countless others are unwilling to accept.

Except it isn't because the days of inventory isn't changing dramatically up or down from seasonal trends. Days inventory is up like...13 days from last year, which given the upward trajectory in car sales isn't that earth shattering. Also, this year the automotive industry had quite a few refreshes in their models.

Still waiting for the proof of an "upward trajectory" and proof of these inventory figures you're claiming.

Finally, inventories start building up during this part of the year in anticipation of higher sales in the first and second quarter. So, no, this economic indicator is not at all misleading, it's just pointing to a reality that you and countless others are unwilling to accept.

The vehicles haven't been sold. No one has bought them. They're not sales. How hard is that to understand? Preach about green shoots once they're actually sold to the buying public. Until then it's just CNBC pump monkey nonsense from cherry picked "analysts".

Still waiting for the proof of an "upward trajectory" and proof of these inventory figures you're claiming.

The vehicles haven't been sold. No one has bought them. They're not sales. How hard is that to understand? Preach about green shoots once they're actually sold to the buying public. Until then it's just CNBC pump monkey nonsense from cherry picked "analysts".

Any links to show that "car sales" figures are sales TO dealers and not sales BY dealers? Figures on dealer inventories? Thanks.

What people don't realize about auto sales is they DON'T follow the economy in the direct sense nor can they "build them and they will come" with manufacturers. They follow 5 year patterns of buying because the average person buys a new car every 5 years. The average loan term is 60 months which also comes into play. The year 2007 was the most profitable year in many decades so a boatload of people upgraded their cars to new ones.

Also 2006 and 2005 were also booming years which are still contributing. The federal government dribbled this auto buying into 2008 with the "cash for clunkers" bailout of the auto industry. The current 0% interest rates to the lending industry are also propping up the industry.

This means 2012 was a shoo-in despite the economy as is part of 2013. Not that many people are going to "drive it until the wheels fall off" and many have changed from a 2007 luxury gas guzzler to a more economic solution. Many are getting out of these expensive gas guzzlers that made sense in a booming economy with cheaper gas.

I would not say the current car industry is in any way a reflection of a positive or healthy economy. In the same sense if the economy and currency crashed with unemployment doubling there would still be a rush of people getting out of more expensive cars into cheaper ones. Half the country would be rushing to downgrade their autos and debt is not a sign of a healthy economy.

Conversely later in 2013 and in 2014 even if the economy kicked into gear it could be flat sales for autos because the 5 year cycle is not reset. I also look for interest rates to rise by 2014 further damaging auto sales.

You're repeating datapoints I've already debunked. The uptrend in car sales has little to do with natural disasters, dude. I've already said you should look at October sales and see how October sales were actually lower because of the storm. No one thinks "hey, a hurricane is coming, this is a great time to buy a car!"

Americans are confident in economic recovery, and as such they are buying a car. I know this doesn't fit your ideal scenario - a poorly performing economy and weak consumer - but reality is that consumer confidence is at a four year high (discussed in another thread) and car sales are booming. Get with the times.

Total inventory is useless. Days inventory is more important. Compare that chart to the change in car sales and you'll see why dealerships have more total inventory - it's because they're selling more per day. Research I have on hand says that there is only 13 days more inventory on the lots today than this time last year for all Big 3 automakers, and 15 days more inventory for all automakers on American lots. Days inventory is a derivative of the sales pace. Given that the trajectory is up, I'm not surprised to see that there is more total inventory, as well as more days of inventory (which is calculated against the last month's sales pace, not future projections.) When sales come in at automakers expectations, there will be no inventory build at all.

There are 73 days of inventory for all cars and light trucks on American lots. That's hardly a lot of supply. Also, seeing as sales are increasing fairly regularly, we should only expect more inventory on the lots ahead of stronger automotive demand.

Your comment reflects inability to engage in critical thinking and honest, real discussion about the state of auto sales.

Have you not considered cach for clunkers depleting the supply of used cars, and driving demand for new cars?

THere is literally no reason to insult people for having a different opinion than you do about the cars that they prefer.

Fuck you and your opinion. What the hell is a G37? Sounds like a pussy car. Heated seats? Mp3 player? Give me something that has actual bass, thank you. I doubt it has any real style - no girl is ever going to walk up ogle that Daddy's car. Unless she's looking for a Daddy, I suppose.

My insurance costs $60 a month. I can buy a brand new car with what I save there alone. You're just participating in planned obsolescence driven to consumers, spending lots of money for crap that nobody actually needs, but you consider yourself intellectually superior. Limousine liberal bullshit.

Navigation system? Big Brother thanks you for your participation.

Again, there is literally no legitimate reason to insult people for having a different opinion than you do about the cars that they prefer. But that's what you opened with? Apparently Inifniti drivers are assholes. But I actually already knew that. (I did have to look up a "G37" - that explained it).

Agree on the Euro ride point. You might see one or two cars a day that aren't econo-boxes in most major European cities...and just try and spot a truck.

A G37 is a car intended for spoiled suburban late teen early 20s females.

You did make the claim that the public wasn't buying them- that they weren't really sales. Can you support that claim?

Please point out where I said that. What I said/asked is whether Jordan's article (and yours too) indicate specifically if the figures are based on end-user sales or manufacturer-to-dealer sales. Nobody seems to be able to answer this question since the article apparently doesn't say. Channel stuffing is a confirmed practice and Im happy to provide links to that if you'd like. Others on this thread recognize that "sales" figures generally are manufacturer-to-dealer too, not to end-users, and therefore is not a worthwhile metric. If you post the article the burden of proof is on you to prove it's not just CNBC pump monkey hype.

What people don't realize about auto sales is they DON'T follow the economy in the direct sense nor can they "build them and they will come" with manufacturers. They follow 5 year patterns of buying because the average person buys a new car every 5 years. The average loan term is 60 months which also comes into play. The year 2007 was the most profitable year in many decades so a boatload of people upgraded their cars to new ones.

Also 2006 and 2005 were also booming years which are still contributing. The federal government dribbled this auto buying into 2008 with the "cash for clunkers" bailout of the auto industry. The current 0% interest rates to the lending industry are also propping up the industry.

This means 2012 was a shoo-in despite the economy as is part of 2013. Not that many people are going to "drive it until the wheels fall off" and many have changed from a 2007 luxury gas guzzler to a more economic solution. Many are getting out of these expensive gas guzzlers that made sense in a booming economy with cheaper gas.

I would not say the current car industry is in any way a reflection of a positive or healthy economy. In the same sense if the economy and currency crashed with unemployment doubling there would still be a rush of people getting out of more expensive cars into cheaper ones. Half the country would be rushing to downgrade their autos and debt is not a sign of a healthy economy.

Conversely later in 2013 and in 2014 even if the economy kicked into gear it could be flat sales for autos because the 5 year cycle is not reset. I also look for interest rates to rise by 2014 further damaging auto sales.

Your entire premise begs the question. Your reasoning is circular. Basically you're saying that people buy cars every five years because people bought cars five years ago. Do you have any evidence to suggest that this purchasing cycle actually exists?

I've driven everything from a Ford Escort to a Ford E-150. I can't imagine ever going back to a little car. Can't see! But the one thing that's important here is that I don't drive much. I put 6,000 miles a year on my cars until the hubby starts borrowing it. The gas savings of a small car is huge in percentages, but dollar-wise, it's negligible for me.

If I had to drive to work and back every day, I'd certainly be looking for something that was more economical. But I would hate it.

.

"Every great new thought was opposed. Every great new invention was denounced. The first motor was considered foolish. The airplane was considered impossible. The power loom was considered vicious. Anesthesia was considered sinful. But the men of unborrowed vision went ahead. They fought, they suffered and they paid. But they won."

Has anybody noticed private citizens driving more new vehicles in their neighborhood?

I haven't......But according to Jordan my thinking isn't critical enough....

There you go being all "anecdotal" (lol).

Used cars are selling very well and are in high demand according to numerous reports. I'm not seeing much in the way of new cars anywhere in my large city and my city is the 2nd largest banking city in the US. Can't remember the last time I saw a temporary tag on a new car...

Please point out where I said that. What I said/asked is whether Jordan's article (and yours too) indicate specifically if the figures are based on end-user sales or manufacturer-to-dealer sales. Nobody seems to be able to answer this question since the article apparently doesn't say. Channel stuffing is a confirmed practice and Im happy to provide links to that if you'd like. Others on this thread recognize that "sales" figures generally are manufacturer-to-dealer too, not to end-users, and therefore is not a worthwhile metric. If you post the article the burden of proof is on you to prove it's not just CNBC pump monkey hype.

FFS, you can make an inference from the data on days of inventory that the cars are selling. If annual sales are up, and inventories are mostly constant, then the cars are obviously being sold to the public.

You did make the claim that the public wasn't buying them- that they weren't really sales. Can you support that claim?

Please point out where I said that. What I said/asked is whether Jordan's article (and yours too) indicate specifically if the figures are based on end-user sales or manufacturer-to-dealer sales. Nobody seems to be able to answer this question since the article apparently doesn't say. Channel stuffing is a confirmed practice and Im happy to provide links to that if you'd like. Others on this thread recognize that "sales" figures generally are manufacturer-to-dealer too, not to end-users, and therefore is not a worthwhile metric. If you post the article the burden of proof is on you to prove it's not just CNBC pump monkey hype.

I guess you don't read your own posts. That's OK- I can help you. Let's go back and read one. See post #125.

The vehicles haven't been sold. No one has bought them. They're not sales. How hard is that to understand? Preach about green shoots once they're actually sold to the buying public. Until then it's just CNBC pump monkey nonsense from cherry picked "analysts".

Wow. So much for "If annual sales are up, and inventories are mostly constant, then the cars are obviously being sold to the public."

Well, since globalism, consumerism and socialism is the obvious panacea, I'm just waiting for the notion that no American should be denied the basic fundamental right to own a new car, and a "No American Driver Left Behind" program, where the government steps in and subsidizes the loans once the lenders back off from scraping the rest of the bottom of the barrel, and find themselves running out of lending courage gas. Top that with a provision similar to student loans -- that government subsidized car loans are not dischargeable in bankruptcy -- and the sky's the limit! Everything should go swimmingly after that.

Wow. So much for "If annual sales are up, and inventories are mostly constant, then the cars are obviously being sold to the public."

Well, since globalism, consumerism and socialism is the obvious panacea, I'm just waiting for the notion that no American should be denied the basic fundamental right to own a new car, and a "No American Driver Left Behind" program, where the government steps in and subsidizes the loans once the lenders back off from scraping the rest of the bottom of the barrel, and find themselves running out of lending courage gas. Top that with a provision similar to student loans -- that government subsidized car loans are not dischargeable in bankruptcy -- and the sky's the limit! Everything should go swimmingly after that.

Wow, if only people would read the whole thread before posting.

I've already shown that days inventory is mostly unchanged. And LibertyIn08 has already pointed out that GM's inventory levels are the highest of any car company, and well above the average.

P.S. I like how that chart starts with the bottom in car sales on an annualized basis. It's designed to be misleading, given that it shows inventory without respect to annual sales. Obviously total inventories will be higher when cars are selling faster. I wonder if you guys would be surprised to learn that Walmart carries more inventory than a convenience store.

Looks like BOTH sales and inventories are up. That does not necessarily mean that the sales figures come from what is sold to dealers and not sales from dealers to customers. Say I had 100 cars and sold 50. End of month I have 50 cars left. I order 100 more but sell 60. My inventory is now 90 at the end of month which is higher but my sales also increased.

The Auto sector graduated from our emerging to our mature bull list in this week's sector performance review. According to Reuters, car sales hit a five-year high in November stepping in the gas by rising 15% to 1.14 million vehicles.

With news like that, it's no wonder that auto sector is catching the eye of investors. Many car industry experts believe the trend will carry into 2013. However, troubling times could be ahead for automakers as incentives and a troubling rise in inventories could hit profits hard in in 2013.

This morning, the Wall Street Journal reported, "Detroit auto makers are piling up big stocks of passenger cars at dealers despite brisk new-vehicle sales in the U.S.—a problem that executives vowed to avoid since their painful downturn three years ago." The more things change, the more they stay the same.

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