The author has been described by News Ltd as an "iconoclast", "Svengali", a pollie's "economist muse", and "pungently accurate". Fairfax says he is a "Renaissance man" and "one of Australia’s most respected analysts." Stephen Koukoulas concludes that he is "85% right", and "would make a great Opposition leader." Terry McCrann claims the author thinks "‘nuance’ is a trendy village in the south of France", but can be "scintillating" when he thinks "clearly". The ACTU reckons he’s "an enigma wrapped in a Bloomberg terminal, wrapped in some apparently well-honed abs."

Thursday, December 23, 2010

Does the GFC presage the rise of Pax-Sinologica?

One of the hardest things to do is to conceive of a world that does not exist today. That is the essence of innovation: thinking of something that has never been before. I wonder how historians will look back on the events of the past few years. I question whether they will be focussing on sub-prime loans, securitisation, market failure, globalisation and the role and regulation of banks, which are the signal issues of today. I have a sneaking suspicion that the Great Recession, or GFC as it is known in the Antipodes, will become much more about the rise of China, the end of US hegemony, and the shift to a more fraught, multi-polar world. Without sounding too pessimistic, the GFC may have sown the seeds of the next transformative global conflict. I think the biggest mitigant against this is globalisation itself. To my mind, non-conflict between the major powers must be the base-case. While global war is an arguably low probability event, it is, in my judgment, made more likely by the emergence of the highly non-transparent and capricious Chinese autocracy, which alongside India is rapidly becoming the global centre of economic gravity...

Most economists were expecting a very weak core inflation result for the September quarter. Instead, the weighted median printed at 0.8%, th...

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I first started blogging on ideas relating to economics, finance, investments and housing following an invitation from Business Spectator. Please note that I may have an economic interest in any of the items discussed here. You should also be aware that these are my own personal views and do not represent the opinions of any other individual or institution. This material is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment advice or recommendations. Readers are urged to seek professional advice before making any investments. Call 1800 YBR YBR to find a financial planner near you.

About Me

While this is a personal blog, professionally Chris is a director and strategic advisor to a number of funds management and financial services companies. In 2009 The Australian newspaper selected Chris as one of Australia’s top 10 “Emerging Leaders” in its economics category. In 2007 Chris was selected by The Bulletin magazine as one of Australia's "10 Smartest CEOs" and by BRW Magazine as one of "Australia's Top 10 Innovators". He previously worked for Goldman Sachs and the RBA. In 2008-09, the Australian Government invested $20 billion in a radical policy proposal developed by Chris to provide liquidity to Australia’s securitisation market. In February 2009, Chris was invited by the Rockefeller and MacArthur Foundations to present innovative policy solutions at the private Transforming America’s Housing Policy summit for Obama Administration officials. Chris served as a Director of The Menzies Research Centre from 2003-07. He has published widely on matters relating to financial economics, and is a regular TV and media commentator. He is a Research Affiliate with the Centre for Ideas and The Economy at Melbourne Uni.