A time capsule of the greatest financial mania in the history of mankind, told in real-time by regular folks and patriots. May future generations better understand the madness of crowds, and how power and money corrupt.

December 22, 2006

Boy, wait 'til they see 2007 - 2008. The first stage of the crash is big news, but oh my god the full crash and the mess to come, that may be the business story of the century my friends...With headlines like these, how can Todd Tarson, Athol Kay, Greg Swann, Russ Shaw, Tom Stevens, Donald Trump, David Lereah, Bob Toll, Jim Jubak, Chris Mayer, the Harvard JCHS, Nicholas Retsinas, Alan Greenspan and other laughable and discredited housing bubble deniers continue to spin their lies and deceit? The gig is up. The rabbit is out of the hat. The liars and deceivers have been exposed. And the housing crash underway will be brutal.

Housing Decline Is Business Story of 2006Sudden Stall in Home Sales, Construction, Prices Is Voted AP's Top Business Story of 2006

The nation's house party ended with a thud in 2006, leaving everyone from condo flippers to Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke waiting to see what would happen next.

The sudden stall in home sales, home construction and home prices -- and what that will mean for the economy -- was voted the top business story of the year by U.S. newspaper and broadcast editors surveyed by The Associated Press.

At the housing market's peak, buyers rushed to open houses, blank checks in hand. Lenders gave big-money mortgages to people who could barely afford their monthly payments. That ended in 2006, when home builders scuttled projects, walked away from land they'd hoped to develop and would-be buyers canceled orders.

46 comments:

Keith, maybe you can recover some of your articles in a "blast from the past".

I seem to remember a few people in mid-2005 calling the top of the housing bubble, and much of the mainstream media embarassingly worshipping the universal riches that we'll all have.

I remember going to a conference in May 2005 and one of the magazines at the hotel lobby in something like "Money" or "Personal Finance" was a 'lifestyle' puff feature about a few amateur property flippers. I thought "hmm reminds me of the day trader articles". I started shorting housing stocks a few months later, but it was too early--then, and then I was too chicken.

It's amazing how this can be voted AP Business Story of the Year, and so many members of the media can still deny that it's even happening. The local media here in JAX still prints articles about how "there is no bubble" and "prices never go down" and the ever classic "It can never happen here."

Let's discuss HOW this massive, unprecedented bubble came into existence, shall we?

Perhaps putting the issues into the form of a "recipe" would be helpful:

1. First, begin with the huge "bowl" that the "ingredients" will be mixed, which allows such a gigantic bubble to be whipped up. This "bowl" is our corrupt, inflationary monetary system of fiat currency, fractional reserve lending, and central banking.

2. Now, in that bowl stir equal parts of the following:

a. Women's need for nesting

b. Men's need for ego stroke by having the "biggest" house

c. Real estate clerk's need for commissions regardless of whether it is in the best interests of their customers

d. Mortgage order takers who share the same need as R.E. clerks above.

3. Now, stir the above contents briskly for years and years. Then, for the super-rich "extra ingredients" that will make this souffle' puff up to three-feet tall, add in the following, additional ingredients:

a. The "securitization miracle" whereby loans are diced, sliced and sold off in chunks, thereby separating those who created the loan from those ultimately holding it.

c. Ludicrious "lending standards" which allow every living, breathing (and some not!), cretin to sign off on a humongous mortgage.

d. Further "innovation" in the form of "creative financing" loans that are ARM, I/O, Neg. am.

4. Now, for the real "oomph", add:

a. government-sponsored enterprises, which add a layer of "moral hazard" to the previously-mentioned securitization by having the government implicity guarantee the trillions in securitized paper flating around.

b. Completely lax regulation and oversight which allows all of the above actors to operate virtually without supervision for decades.

Finally, bake this toxic mix in an "oven" created by the media which allows temperatures to rise to five-hundred degrees, inciting the sheeple who will be eating this concoction to gorge themselves on this tasty dish until they are overstuffed with debt.

Then, as all the sheeple lay bloated and groggy, raise interest rates to lead the lambs off to slaughter...

Do i get the covenant call of the week..I said early last week that the dollar will fall friday before xmas when everyone is not paying attention...like thanks giving..yes it is still early..but we are already down 0.08...so ill take the call of the week trophy...

Dave in Jax, I believe the media publishes what they get. Realtor interestes contact them, feed them info. or propaganda, then it gets published. After all, the media is not in the real estate business so what do they care as long as the papers are being sold. However, the media craves misery and its almost contrary that they publish good news in housing. Someone once said, and I believe it was Mark Twain, that if you don't read the news your not informed. If you read the news, your half informed.

Anonymous said... Dave in Jax, I believe the media publishes what they get. Realtor interestes contact them, feed them info. or propaganda, then it gets published. After all, the media is not in the real estate business so what do they care...

I agree completely. They are only in the business of selling their product. I just think it's crazy that they print what everyone knows is the contrary. It may be one of the reasons why newspaper sales are so down in this area. Even more than the rest of the country.

Anonymous said... Keith, maybe you can recover some of your articles in a "blast from the past".

I seem to remember a few people in mid-2005 calling the top of the housing bubble, and much of the mainstream media embarassingly worshipping the universal riches that we'll all have.

I remember going to a conference in May 2005 and one of the magazines at the hotel lobby in something like "Money" or "Personal Finance" was a 'lifestyle' puff feature about a few amateur property flippers. I thought "hmm reminds me of the day trader articles". I started shorting housing stocks a few months later, but it was too early--then, and then I was too chicken.

We're now 18 months post peak, right?

Friday, December 22, 2006 8:02:08 AM

Mid 05 was the peak in some markets. Later in 05 was the peak in others, and early 06 was in even others, and some markets (like charlotte NC where I live) seem to be a wandering peak and valley scene where we did see a spike in 05 post katrina abd that only lead to older houses that were already festering for months if not years on the market sell ... Even that didn't make some of the insane turkeys I ride past sell though ... come on ... old sheite on 1/4 acre with a garage conversion sitting under power lines with streets in front of and behind and on one side (WTF are you on display ???) will not sell no matter what ... In any case, I have also been bubblicious on some cities since 2002. The market can remain irrational for much much longer than any one ever thinks possible right.I think Northern and in fact southern CA is due for a early 90's style crash. The high $$$ tech jobs went to China and India and easy money fueled the spending boom and people just were caught looking the other way. Its comming and comming soon. Its going to get fugly and we are all going to make fun of me for calling the burst for months before it came ...Cool.Cow_tipping.

Here is another story...I know, I know MSM fluff to be ignored. The NAR will spin this to say that all the building in AZ and NV is justified, blah blah blah. We all know these numbers are fake since the census bureau is in on the NAR's scam.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Arizona replaced long-time leader Nevada as the fastest growing state in the union during the 12 months ended July 1, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The population of the Grand Canyon state grew 3.6 percent during that period. Nevada grew by 3.5 percent.

Another story that proves the US is doomed. Start sellin dem dollah boyz. The fact that GM makes shit products has nothing to do with this story. It's alldue to the fact that China is dumping dollars and Iraq and uhm,uhm oh yeak Greenspan's a Jew, yeah that's the ticket.

NAGOYA (Reuters) -- Toyota Motor Corp. expects to produce a record 9.42 million vehicles next year, a 4 percent rise that should take it past General Motors Corp. as the world's biggest auto maker.

As the Japanese firm woos buyers worldwide with cars seen as safe, affordable and fuel efficient, U.S. rivals GM (Charts) and Ford Motor Co. (Charts) battle falling market share, closing factories and shedding thousands of jobs.

The funny thing is ... I think everyone that wanted, thought about, fantasized about, dreamt about, or just plain were in the wrong place at the wrong time owns (or thinks they own) a house or 12 ... So I dont see a future where buyers are comming. Buyers all are done, there aren't any more, to get more we need to start selling them to like china or somewhere.Cool.Cow_tipping.

Huuuuh .... OK no one is denying that it eventually will go back up.What we are almost unanimously saying is that it will crash ... and that crash hasn't even started ... faaaaaar too early to shart calling it a bottom and really really really premature to start counting on the "going up" part.Also we may see some areas never return. Detroit may be one, as is silicon valley, I mean lets face it ... its just Detroit 20 years from now.That would be a shift in demographics though as opposed to something just plain cyclical.Cool.Cow_tipping.

Some members of the major media are still in denial (!) about the market crash; here's the lede in the top 12/22/06 business story in the L.A. Times: "California's housing market may be nearing a bottom after months of plunging sales, the state's chief real estate brokers group said Thursday."

In the same newspaper, there was an article about how the U.S. economy and what did economist's blame? The housing crash!!

Here's the link to the business story: http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-homes22dec22,1,4203406.story?coll=la-headlines-business&ctrack=1&cset=true

Butch, I've reposted your comment over at HousingDoom.com under the title HP’s Butch Nails The Recipe. We've added links, footnotes and some formatting. I can send you the plain-vanilla HTML (through Keith) in case you'd like to run your text through a further iteration.

Hello, Christmas Day falls on December 25. It is preceded by Christmas Eve on December 24, and in some countries is followed by Boxing Day on December 26. Some Eastern Orthodox Churches celebrate Christmas on January 7, which corresponds to December 25 on the Julian calendar. December 25 as a birthdate for Jesus is merely traditional, and is not thought to be his actual date of birth. Much respect!

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