Beau's Weather Blog

Let's Talk Weather...

September 15, 2007

A chilly morning here in Toronto. Temperatures fell into
the 40s last night with strong northwesterly winds. It is sunny,
however, and that is making for a beautiful "fall-like" day.
Temperatures should warm in the coming days to near normal readings.

September 16, 2007

A quiet weather day across the Toronto Region. I am
enjoying the fall lke temperatures. Cool weather covers much of
the Northern Plains into the Northeast. A storm system is
approaching the Midwest and Northern Plains and this will bring a daily
chance for severe weather on both Monday and Tuesday. The main
areas of concern will be across the Dakotas and into Minnesota,
Nebraska, and Iowa.

September 17, 2007

A quiet weather day across Ontario. Cool temperatures and a
light breeze was the rule of the day. Splendid weather! The
leaves are starting to turn more and more here in this county. I
believe by the end of next week we will be seeing widespread fall
colors. Just in time for fall!

September 18, 2007

850 mb map - plenty of warm air rushing northward

Plenty of WAA across the Central United States. Warm air is
moving northward in front of a storm system that could spark severe
thunderstorms across portions of the Missouri Valley and Northern
Plains. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a rather large
slight risk area for today and tonight.

Slight Risk for Today and Tonight

Surface Map

In the tropics...an area of disturbed weather off the Florida Coast
should continue to drift westward into the Gulf of Mexico during the
coming days. There is a chance that this system could develop into
a tropical depression. Stay tuned.

Morning satellite showing the tropical wave...

News Release: Environmental Canada

WINNIPEG- September 18, 2007 - Environment
Canada meteorologists have confirmed that the Elie, Manitoba
tornado of June 22, 2007 reached F5 intensity, the highest rating on the
Fujita tornado damage scale, making it the first officially documented
F5 tornado in Canada.

The Fujita scale measures the strength of tornadoes based on
damage indicators. An F5 tornado accounts for about one tenth of one
percent of all tornadoes in North America.

Preliminary assessment by Environment Canada's onsite storm
survey team had earlier indicated clear evidence of F4 damage.
However, damage seen at two of the homes indicated possible F5
intensity. Based on further evaluation, including review of
additional video images, Environment Canada meteorologists at the
Prairie and Arctic Storm Prediction Centre in Winnipeg confirm evidence
of F5 level damage.

Environment Canada reports the video confirmed some of the
suspected F5 evidence seen onsite in June. An almost intact house
can be seen being thrown several hundred metres through the air before
disintegrating and falling to the ground. Seconds later a heavy
van is seen being whirled through the air; it was later found in an open
field south of the main damage.

In order to rate a tornado, only one instance of any one
damage indicator has to be clearly met. With two F5 damage
indicators occurring within seconds of each other, experts decided to
re-evaluate some of the evidence seen in June.

The Elie tornado was on the ground for about 35 minutes, and
traveled for a distance of about 5.5 km. Damage occurred in a
swath up to 300 metres wide. Wind speeds are estimated to have
reached between 420 to 510 km/h when the tornado was at its most
intense.

Fortunately, there were no fatalities or serious injuries with
either the Elie tornado or the F4 tornado which struck Birtle, Manitoba
in 1994. Manitoba's only other documented F4 tornado, which struck
the Rosa-St. Malo area in 1977, resulted in three fatalities. The
F2 tornado which struck Gull Lake, Manitoba in 2006 caused one fatality
and numerous injuries.

Impressive Vort Max Moving Towards California...Snow!

An impressive vort max will slide towards California over the next
few days. The NAM (shown below from Wright-Weather) shows this
nicely. Mountain snow is in the forecast across portions of
California. There is
a thread on EasternUSwx concerning this event.

Click for full image

September 19, 2007

Low pressure east of Miami, Florida

All eyes are on the tropics this morning. A weak low pressure
area is spinning east of Miami. There is a chance that this could
develop over the next day or two. Computer models take the low
westward into the Gulf of Mexico. There is much debate as to
whether or not this will actually develop into a sub-tropical or
tropical system.

September 20, 2007

Absolutely gorgeous weather here in Waterloo, Ontario today!
BRILLIANT blue skies. One of the deeper blue skies I have seen in
some time. Beautiful is all I can say!

Still watching the tropical disturbance near Florida. Slow
development is possible over the next few days.

Dual Doppler Radar Comes To WRAL - Raleigh - Durham

A MILLION watts of power! WRAL is rolling out their new
dual polarization radar.
Video explanation
of the new radar can be viewed here. This new radar can
clearly distinguish between heavy rainfall, snow, ice, sleet, hail, and
false echoes. The Dual Polarization radar has far superior
rainfall total estimates than conventional Doppler radar.

September 21, 2007

We have a tropical depression in the Gulf of Mexico this morning.
No real surprises here. Looks like the system could gain a little
bit of intensity as we move through the day. Perhaps we will have
Tropical Storm Jerry before all is said and done. The main threat
from this system will be isolated tornadoes across portions of Florida
and extreme Southern Georgia, Alabama, and eventually Mississippi.
It appears that this system will slowly move towards the west/northwest
over the next few days.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a moderate risk for severe
thunderstorms and tornadoes across portions of Wisconsin for this
afternoon and tonight.

September 22, 2007

Tropical depression 10 moved ashore yesterday will little fanfare.
Heavy rains and gusty winds were the main impact. Florida was hit
the hardest by the system with one tornado damaging more than 50 homes.
Otherwise the tropics are fairly quiet at this time. The National
Hurricane Center is watching a disturbance in the Caribbean. There
could be some slow development in the coming days.

September 26, 2007

I am in Germany for a few days. Lot of light rain and drizzle
across this region. Temperatures are chilly as well. The
leaves are just starting to turn colors. A lot of yellow and
orange colors. Temperatures last night fell into the 50s.
There was a bit of fog this morning.

Fall in Radoltzen, Germany

Foggy morning in Radoltzen, Germany.

Some fall color here in the city.

Radoltzen, Germany

Bodensee in Germany - September 25th

Sunset Bodensee - Germany

September 27, 2007

September 28, 2007

It is a rainy day here in London. Clouds cover much of Europe
as a storm systems winds up and spreads moisture across a large chunk of
real estate. It has been raining on and off all day here in the
city center. Looks like the rain will continue through tomorrow.

Europe - Visible Satellite Image

September 29, 2007

Pennsylvania Severe Weather Outbreak Update

Strong wind shear, abnormally warm temperatures, and high
humidity for late September combined to produce severe thunderstorms -
and one confirmed tornado near Tidioute, PA - over Northwest PA during
the evening of Wednesday, 26 September 2007.

Numerous reports of funnel clouds were received that evening in real time
as the event was on-going.

See the maps/pictures below for a quick summary of the storms Wed
Evening.
A storm damage survey team investigated damage in Warren County on
Friday. See their findings below:

NOUS41 KCTP 282009
PNSCTP
PAZ004-290015-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
409 PM EDT FRI SEP 28 2007

THE FOLLOWING IS A FINAL ASSESSMENT FOR THE DAMAGE THAT OCCURRED
IN WARREN COUNTY ON SEPTEMBER 26, 2007.

* EVENT DATE: SEPTEMBER 26, 2007

* ESTIMATED START TIME: 600 PM

* ESTIMATED END TIME: 610 PM

* EVENT TYPE: EF1 TORNADO

* EVENT LOCATION: FROM 2 MILES NORTHEAST OF TIDIOUTE TO 5 MILES
NORTHEAST OF TIDIOUTE.

* PEAK WIND: ESTIMATED AT 90-100 MPH.

* AVERAGE PATH WIDTH: 25 YARDS.

* PATH LENGTH: 3 MILES.

* INJURIES: NONE REPORTED.

* FATALITIES: NONE REPORTED.

* DISCUSSION/DAMAGE: THE TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN TWO MILES NORTHEAST
OF TIDIOUTE IN SOUTHERN WARREN COUNTY, THEN TRACKED NORTHEAST
ALONG THE ALLEGHENY RIVER FOR AN ADDITIONAL THREE MILES. SEVERAL
HUNTING CABINS AND UNINHABITED DWELLINGS WERE DAMAGED FROM THE
STORM. IN ADDITION, SEVERAL HUNDRED TREES WERE TOPPLED OR
DAMAGED ALONG THE TORNADO PATH. SEVERAL EYEWITNESSES SAW THE
DESCENDING FUNNEL CLOUD IN THE VICINITY OF TIDIOUTE AND ONE
REPORTED SEEING THE TORNADO ON THE GROUND NORTHEAST OF TIDIOUTE.

&&

FOR REFERENCE...THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES INTO
THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES:

Storm complex moving into
western Warren County, note the bookend vortex already forming.

Storm as it produced
golf-ball size hail in Tidioute.

Storm as it is entering
Western McKean County.

SNOW ON MT. HOOD - WINTER IS COMING FOLKS JUST BE PATIENT!

Mt. Hood Web Cam

September 30, 2007

Strong to severe thunderstorms lined up this evening across the
Northern Plains down into the Missouri Valley. Several severe
weather watches and warnings were issued. At least three tornadoes
were reported in Iowa. No injuries but some damage occurred with
the stronger storms.

All
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