If this is your first visit, be sure to
check out the FAQ by clicking the
link above. You may have to register
before you can post: click the register link above to proceed. To start viewing messages,
select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below.

Tropical cyclone (TC) activity worldwide has completely and utterly collapsed during the past 2 to 3 years with TC energy levels sinking to levels not seen since the late 1970s. This should not be a surprise to scientists since the natural variability in climate dominates any detectable or perceived global warming impact when it comes to measuring yearly integrated tropical cyclone activity.

...Time to petition the home insurance agencies with this info! Seems like every month or two they're trying to raise rates. State Farm was denied a 47% increase in rates by the FL insurance (whatever) and then threatened that they'd leave. Almost one and a quarter million customers are fixin' to be dropped like used dental floss by those bastards!

You should have thrown in this damn-good quote:

Bottom Line

Under global warming scenarios, hurricane intensity is expected to increase (on the order of a few percent), but MANY questions remain as to how much, where, and when. This science is very far from settled. Indeed, Al Gore has dropped the related slide in his PowerPoint (btw, is he addicted to the Teleprompter as well? :eek: :D [author said it, not me!]) Many papers have suggested that these changes are already occurring especially in the strongest of hurricanes, e.g. this and that and here, due to warming sea-surface temperatures (the methodology and data issues with each of these papers has been discussed here at CA, and will be even more in the coming months). The notion that the overall global hurricane energy or ACE has collapsed does not contradict the above papers but provides an additional, perhaps less publicized piece of the puzzle. Indeed, the very strong interannual variability of global hurricane ACE (energy) highly correlated to ENSO, suggests that the role of tropical cyclones in climate is modulated very strongly by the big movers and shakers in large-scale, global climate. The perceptible (and perhaps measurable) impact of global warming on hurricanes in today's climate is arguably a pittance compared to the reorganization and modulation of hurricane formation locations and preferred tracks/intensification corridors dominated by ENSO (and other natural climate factors). Moreover, our understanding of the complicated role of hurricanes with and role in climate is nebulous to be charitable. We must increase our understanding of the current climate's hurricane activity.

Last edited by AHeneen; 03-15-2009 at 02:42 AM.

"Because we're a great nation, our challenges seem complex; it will always be this way. But as long as we remember our first principals and believe in ourselves, the future will always be ours." -Reagan

...Time to petition the home insurance agencies with this info! Seems like every month or two they're trying to raise rates. State Farm was denied a 47% increase in rates by the FL insurance (whatever) and then threatened that they'd leave. Almost one and a quarter million customers are fixin' to be dropped like used dental floss by those bastards!

well then pay up or find someone else. Sounds like a no brainer to me.

Did you even read your own (partial) quote? Or did you just rely on Matt Drudge to tell you what it means?

And for those who would like to see the quote in it's full context:

Tropical cyclone (TC) activity worldwide has completely and utterly collapsed during the past 2 to 3 years with TC energy levels sinking to levels not seen since the late 1970s. This should not be a surprise to scientists since the natural variability in climate dominates any detectable or perceived global warming impact when it comes to measuring yearly integrated tropical cyclone activity. With the continuation (persistence) of colder Pacific tropical sea-surface temperatures associated with the effects of La Nina, the upcoming 2009 Atlantic hurricane season should be above average, as we saw in 2008. Nevertheless, since the Atlantic only makes up 10-15% of overall global TC activity each year (climatological average during the past 30 years), continued Northern Hemispheric and global TC inactivity as a whole likely will continue.

Oh, by the way, also from COAPS--the same research center as above--you're going to love this one:

Model Projections of Sea Level Rise in the Northeast U.S.

March 2009: COAPS scientist Jianjun Yin and colleagues have published a study online in Nature Geoscience showing that regional sea level along the northeastern coast of the United States, particularly near New York, is expected to rise almost twice as fast as global sea levels during the twenty-first century. The rising waters in this particular region are attributed to a slowing of the North Atlantic Ocean circulation, as estimated by a range of state-of-the-art climate models.

I wonder how matt will spin this one...?

Thank you for bringing to light these studies. All good information. Glad I don't live in NYC.

Yes I did. Have you listened to Al Gore? The former VP of the United States has made broad sweeping claims that we and the world can expect Cat 5 hurricanes on nearly a daily basis. See, I can do it too. ;)

Since Al Gore is nothing but a Google Keyboard Commando I don't take what he has to say very seriously. And since his PowerPoint movie has been picked apart I really don't see him as much more than a snakeoil salesman selling carbon credits.

Global weather patterns change. Maybe the 2009 season for the US will be above
normal and then again it may not be. No one really knows till it happens. It was
a very quiet hurricane season in 1992 when Andrew slammed into South Florida.
It only takes one storm to grab the headlines.

Katrina was another, you remember Katrina right? The storm Bu$h & Cheney caused to hit New Orleans and kill only brown people.

Way to dodge the question - HOW MUCH WILL SEA LEVEL RISE??? and be sure to site your answer with a source.

How would I know? I'm not a scientist. Never said I was. My expertise is in writing, journalism, vetting sources and fact checking etc. I've been following the energy and oil industry's attempt to slow and muddy the scientific process for 10+ years. It's frustrating to see so many good people turn their backs on 3 decades of research and consensus simply because they don't like Al Gore.

Oil, coal, and energy are already positioning themselves for the next big round of bailouts in 2010. It won't happen. They'll blame the Dems, throw a ton of money at the midterms, maybe win back some seats, possibly a majority, but all that money would be better spent on R&D. They'll lose market share to smaller upstarts and fall behind on new tech development when they could and should be at the forefront.

I don't even get where you're coming from...

I point out that OP and Drudge are tying to imply that a certain study proves or disproves something that it doesn't. What's you're deal? Blogs and pundits disputing Al Gore and global warming end up pushing the GOP and conservative thinkers toward some pretty corrupt and unethical business practices. This doesn't help reinvent the party or further the cause.