NDP ahead of Tories in Canada-wide poll as Liberals struggle

The national survey commissioned by Postmedia News and Global TV also reveals that Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s Tories are slipping in popularity and the once-powerful Liberals are continuing to wane.

Photograph by: Adrian Wyld
, CP

OTTAWA — The federal New Democratic Party has become the leading choice among Canadian voters — especially those in Ontario and Quebec — as the most favoured party to govern the country, a major new poll has found.

The national survey commissioned by Postmedia News and Global TV also reveals that Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s Tories are slipping in popularity and the once-powerful Liberals are continuing to wane.

Ultimately, the poll conducted this week by Ipsos Reid reveals a historic shift in political allegiances, as a growing consensus forms around the NDP among those Canadians who would like to see Harper’s Tories removed from office.

According to the poll, which asked Canadians who they would vote for if an election occurred today, the NDP under Thomas Mulcair would receive 38 per cent of the popular vote, up three points since last month. (That’s also well up from the 2011 election, when the NDP finished second with 31 per cent of the vote.)

The governing Tories would receive 35 per cent of the vote, down two points since last month (and also down from the 40 per cent they attained to win a majority government last year.)

Support for the Liberal party, now heading into an unpredictable leadership race that won’t include its current leader Bob Rae, is also shaky. The party would get 18 per cent of the vote, down one point from its showing in the 2011 election.

The Green party would receive about four per cent of the vote. And the Bloc Quebecois, once powerful in its province, is now running second to the NDP there.

Ipsos Reid president Darrell Bricker said in an interview Friday that the findings are part of a significant trend which shows Canadians are becoming more polarized around key issues such as the economy, the role of government, and taxes.

He said left-wing, “progressive” voters are now coalescing around the political voice that offers the strongest opposition to Harper’s government.

“That’s what’s happening now for the NDP,” said Bricker.

“We’re seeing that there is an opposition emerging. People who are against Harper figure that they have the best chance of defeating them, and that’s where they are going.”

Bricker said the trend is reminiscent of the 2004 election, when conservative voters stopped splitting their vote between the Canadian Alliance and Progressive Conservatives — thereby making it harder for the Liberals to stay firmly in power.

“The problem that the Tories have now is that they have an opposition that is growing, plus they have a third party (the Liberals) that is not doing its job. The subtext of what you are seeing here is the evisceration of the Liberal party.”

Particularly worrisome for Harper’s party, he said, is that support for the NDP is not only strong in Quebec, but has also skyrocketed in Ontario, where there are many ridings.

The poll found the NDP has taken the lead in Ontario, with 40 per cent support compared to the Tories’ 34 per cent. In Quebec, the NDP is also at 40 per cent, while the Tories are in third place with 18 per cent.

The poll comes in the wake of recent controversy in the House of Commons over the government’s massive budget bill, and as MPs head home to their ridings for the summer to take stock of their constituents’ concerns.

Bricker said he doesn’t ascribe the rise in NDP popularity directly to the political machinations that occurred in the Commons in recent weeks. Nor is he convinced that it’s necessarily because of public support for Mulcair, who was chosen party leader in late March.

Rather, he said it’s connected to the changing nature of the country and the fact the student protests in Quebec represent a broader unease with the economic policies of those in power.

“Quebec has become ground zero for whatever the progressive movement is going to be in the country. And they’re finding allies around the country.”

“People who are progressive, who are just kind of loose fish floating around, are now feeling the NDP is the place to be if you are a progressive.”

Bricker said that, in addition to this trend, the economic uncertainty in Europe could also threaten the Tories’ prospects in the 2015 election. If that economic crisis spills over into Canada and Harper is not able to stem the damage, he could feel the political pinch himself.

“It puts Harper in a pretty precarious situation, because his strong suit is he is best able to manage the country in an economic crisis,” said Bricker.

“If the economy is not managed well and if people are feeling in jeopardy, then that’s him breaking faith on the issue that makes him the most appealing candidate for voters.”

Among the regional findings:

• In Ontario, the NDP (40 per cent)is ahead, followed by the Conservatives (34 per cent) while the Liberals are securely in third place (22 per cent), followed by the Green party (four per cent).

• In Quebec, the NDP (40 per cent) continues to dominate, followed by the Bloc (26 per cent), while the Tories (18 per cent) and Liberals (15 per cent) struggle to compete.

• In Alberta, the Tories (67 per cent) are well ahead, and are trailed by the NDP (24 per cent), while the Liberals (five per cent) and Greens (five per cent) are at the bottom.

• In B.C., the Tories (37 per cent) are competing with the NDP (35 per cent), while the Liberals are in third, (21 per cent) and the Greens are last (seven per cent).

• In Saskatchewan/Manitoba, the Tories are first (45 per cent), while the NDP (43 per cent) run a close second, and the Liberals (10 per cent) run third. The Greens are last (two per cent).

• In Atlantic Canada, the NDP (38 per cent) are in front, followed by the Liberals (30 per cent), the Tories (26 per cent) and the Greens (six per cent).

For the survey, a randomly selected sample of 1,099 adult Canadians was interviewed online throughout the Ipsos online panel. The margin of error is 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The margin of error for the regions is as follows: B.C. - 7.8 per cent; Alberta - 9.8 per cent; Manitoba/Saskatchewan - 12.4 per cent; Ontario - 5.1 per cent; Quebec - 5.5 per cent; Atlantic - 10.4 per cent.

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The national survey commissioned by Postmedia News and Global TV also reveals that Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s Tories are slipping in popularity and the once-powerful Liberals are continuing to wane.

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