The Next Big Boom Towns in the U.S.
by Joel Kotkin
Monday, July 11, 2011Forbes

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What cities are best positioned to grow and prosper in the coming decade?

To determine the next boom towns in the U.S., Forbes, with the help of Mark Schill at the Praxis Strategy Group, took the 52 largest metro areas in the country (those with populations exceeding 1 million) and ranked them based on various data indicating past, present and future vitality.

We started with job growth, not only looking at performance over the past decade but also focusing on growth in the past two years, to account for the possible long-term effects of the Great Recession. That accounted for roughly one-third of the score. The other two-thirds were made up of a a broad range of demographic factors, all weighted equally. These included rates of family formation (percentage growth in children 5-17), growth in educated migration, population growth and, finally, a broad measurement of attractiveness to immigrants -- as places to settle, make money and start businesses.

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We focused on these demographic factors because college-educated migrants (who also tend to be under 30), new families and immigrants will be critical in shaping the future. Areas that are rapidly losing young families and low rates of migration among educated migrants are the American equivalents of rapidly aging countries like Japan; those with more sprightly demographics are akin to up and coming countries such as Vietnam.

Many of our top performers are not surprising. No. 1 Austin, Texas, and No. 2 Raleigh, N.C., have it all demographically: high rates of immigration and migration of educated workers and healthy increases in population and number of children. They are also economic superstars, with job-creation records among the best in the nation.

Perhaps less expected is the No. 3 ranking for Nashville, Tenn. The country music capital, with its low housing prices and pro-business environment, has experienced rapid growth in educated migrants, where it ranks an impressive fourth in terms of percentage growth. New ethnic groups, such as Latinos and Asians, have doubled in size over the past decade.

Two advantages Nashville and other rising Southern cities like No. 8 Charlotte, N.C., possess are a mild climate and smaller scale. Even with population growth, they do not suffer the persistent transportation bottlenecks that strangle the older growth hubs. At the same time, these cities are building the infrastructure -- roads, cultural institutions and airports -- critical to future growth. Charlotte's bustling airport may never be as big as Atlanta's Hartsfield, but it serves both major national and international routes.

Of course, Texas metropolitan areas feature prominently on our list of future boom towns, including No. 4 San Antonio, No. 5 Houston and No. 7 Dallas, which over the past years boasted the biggest jump in new jobs, over 83,000. Aided by relatively low housing prices and buoyant economies, these Lone Star cities have become major hubs for jobs and families.

And there's more growth to come. With its strategically located airport, Dallas is emerging as the ideal place for corporate relocations. And Houston, with its burgeoning port and dominance of the world energy business, seems destined to become ever more influential in the coming decade. Both cities have emerged as major immigrant hubs, attracting on newcomers at a rate far higher than old immigrant hubs like Chicago, Boston and Seattle.

The three other regions in our top 10 represent radically different kinds of places. The Washington, D.C., area (No. 6) sprawls from the District of Columbia through parts of Virginia, Maryland and West Virginia. Its great competitive advantage lies in proximity to the federal government, which has helped it enjoy an almost shockingly "good recession," with continuing job growth, including in high-wage science- and technology-related fields, and an improving real estate market.

Our other two top ten, No. 9 Phoenix, Ariz., and No. 10 Orlando, Fla., have not done well in the recession, but both still have more jobs now than in 2000. Their demographics remain surprisingly robust. Despite some anti-immigrant agitation by local politicians, immigrants still seem to be flocking to both of these states. Known better as retirement havens, their ranks of children and families have surged over the past decade. Warm weather, pro-business environments and, most critically, a large supply of affordable housing should allow these regions to grow, if not in the overheated fashion of the past, at rates both steadier and more sustainable.

quite telling that 4 of the top 10 are in Texas

also that DC is #4 on the list :mad:

djones520

07-12-2011, 10:49 AM

Can a metropolitan city be considered a boom town? It would seem to me that it would be more like small to mid size cities that experience a growth explosion.

fettpett

07-12-2011, 10:54 AM

Can a metropolitan city be considered a boom town? It would seem to me that it would be more like small to mid size cities that experience a growth explosion.

i would think so too, and kinda what i was hoping would be on there, but it also makes sense that they are booming with many companies relocating to big cities from California

On the other hand, we have one industry that is new and growing bigger every day-medical marijuana. Michigan's law was written by the potheads, so it is pretty generous. Pretty much everyone over 40 is eligible, if they have the slightest touch of arthritis.

Novaheart

07-12-2011, 02:06 PM

Can a metropolitan city be considered a boom town? It would seem to me that it would be more like small to mid size cities that experience a growth explosion.

Despite the constant gridlock, Washington and Baltimore are not yet one continuous city. Since Washington has a height limit which isn't likely to change, and there is still explosive potential in the middle, I suppose it's possible that the 95 corridor could become Los Angeles. What a pleasant thought, my home state destroyed.

djones520

07-12-2011, 02:12 PM

Despite the constant gridlock, Washington and Baltimore are not yet one continuous city. Since Washington has a height limit which isn't likely to change, and there is still explosive potential in the middle, I suppose it's possible that the 95 corridor could become Los Angeles. What a pleasant thought, my home state destroyed.

It's a reality, not a thought.

djones520

07-12-2011, 02:13 PM

We got cold weather, crime and everyone makes fun of Detroit.

On the other hand, we have one industry that is new and growing bigger every day-medical marijuana. Michigan's law was written by the potheads, so it is pretty generous. Pretty much everyone over 40 is eligible, if they have the slightest touch of arthritis.

Don't get me going on that. I hope Snyder goes to town in busting down on that.

It is such a loose fucking law that they have radio advertisements telling people how to go online and get a dealers liscence... :rolleyes:

noonwitch

07-12-2011, 04:13 PM

Don't get me going on that. I hope Snyder goes to town in busting down on that.

It is such a loose fucking law that they have radio advertisements telling people how to go online and get a dealers liscence... :rolleyes:

I don't think he can. It was a voter-approved ballot initiative, that spelled everything out to all who bothered to read it before voting.

It doesn't really matter in Detroit, except for the tax revenue side of it. Marijuana is de facto legal in a city that can't afford to police it's territory effectively. Considering that the law allows a person to retroactively apply a medical defense to an offense that occurred before that person was certified for medical marijuana, it's a law enforcement mess that makes the cops not want to bust anyone for any small possession charge.

The current law is just a foot in the door toward full-out legalization. Whereas I have no issue with legalization (I'm a lib, I see tax $$), I know a lot of people who voted for the medical marijuana who do not support legalizing it for all.

fettpett

07-12-2011, 09:57 PM

the problem with the law is that it's written in such a way that it doesn't really give anyone any control over it, so it throws the whole thing into a grey area. A lot like how Massage Therapy use to be, except this is in the State Constitution now.