A different way to look at Rockets’ draft, including an early morning “home run” call

Somehow, after a few days of this, I’m starting to suspect the dissatisfaction with the Rockets’ draft has little to do with the Rockets’ draft.

There is room to debate the choices. There always is, particularly the further removed the picks get from the no-brainer choices. And for some, the issues could be with the positions the players chosen play, rather than with the players themselves.

Assuming the loss of Brad Miller (in exchange for a guy taken sixth two years ago and who on occasion has looked the part) is not the root of the disappointment, it would seem to be more about the seasons that preceded the draft than the events Thursday night.

A moment of perspective: they won 43 games. That does not make them a 63-win contender or 53-win playoff team. And it does not mean they were a 23-win team. As coaches say, you are what your record says you are. It’s not complicated, but if they were a contender that slumped to just 43 wins, it would be a terribly disappointing season and if they had been among the dregs of the league and surged to that winning record, there would be waves of optimism and excitement.

Instead, they remain there in the thick part of the middle, a little better than average but without a clear reason to expect something substantially better.

Even if so few of those superstars in waiting actually become their team’s Dirk or D-Wade, the sort of players that turn good teams great and great teams champions, sports are about hope. The Rockets don’t have that guy that gives hope that he will become that sort of star or that he will make the Rockets a championship team again.

That brings us back to the draft. That night is all about hope. As the collection of 2009 lottery picks that now crowd the Rockets’ roster demonstrates, the expectations of draft night don’t often pan out quickly if at all. But on the night players are selected, full of promise and potential, it is natural to want to imagine them achieving greatness or helping their teams get there.

That is at least the hope when the seasons that lead to the draft do not bring reason to believe better times are ahead.

In the Rockets’ case this season, the picks were not unconventional. In many ways, their potential far exceeds the investment in them with obvious skills and physical attributes that could offer a reason to imagine them succeeding while waiting to find out. They might not make it. Chances are slim that they will contribute quickly. That’s the next-day reality of the draft.

A few years ago, the same players would have been celebrated. When optimism about the team in general was greater, the players on the roster and the likelihood of Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady remaining healthy were overestimated. Two years later, the players drafted did not bring much of that reaction, though they and Jonny Flynn have at least as much chance to make it as players that brought better reaction.

The Rockets actually had a very good night. Marcus Morris, a second team All-American and the Big 12 player of the year, might not be what some apparently wanted, but he can play. (A whole lot more on him to come.) Donatas Motiejunas has an unusual mix of skills and size. Chandler Parsons, though a very different player from Chase Budinger, seems similarly misplaced in the second round. It is far too early to write off Flynn.

As with all rookies, the Rockets draft picks come with reasons to question how they will do. That’s why I don’t think much of the draft night grades that not only come before the first test; they come before the first class.

But since it has become apparent that the picks did not bring the hope that many want from draft night, I’ll offer the comments of David Thorpe on Morris.

Thorpe is a friend, ESPN columnist and a personal coach for NBA players, including the Rockets’ Kevin Martin and Courtney Lee. He called me Friday morning to talk about Morris, initially asking what I thought.

I said I like the pick, especially if Morris can defend small forwards. That part of the conversation lasted about 15, 20 seconds. My first question came 71/2 minutes later. Keep in mind, David does not work for the Rockets or always agree with them. Though he is intensely loyal to his guys, as he quickly points out it is a little early to consider Morris one of his guys. The Rockets certainly did not consult with him on their choice of Morris, but this might give a good idea of what they see in him – and a reason for the hope.

“I definitely, typically fall in love with my players. I don’t think I lose objectivity, but I’m always accused of it. In this case, he spent just a week in my gym. It was just a glimpse. It’s not like we’re buddies. I feel like I’m 100 percent objective based on the fact I had him for six days.

“I was skeptical before Day 1 when his high school coach (Dan Brinkley) who is one of his managers and his agents were telling me he is a three. I said, ‘So many times we hear about these guys who think they’re small forwards, who played power forward and think it is so easy to move down. It so rarely works. And I’m skeptical.’ But he’s been a small forward his whole life. He was a three in Philadelphia when they won back-to-back city championships. He goes to Kansas and they wanted to move him to power forward to make room for Xavier Henry.

“For the team, Marcus said, ‘Sure, if it’s better for the team, I’ll play the four.’ Xavier Henry comes and plays the three. Because Marcus was so good playing the four, they left him there.

“Marcus was the no. 1 points per possession in the post player in the entire draft. That tells you can score in the low post.

“When he was with me, we did everything as a small forward because I wanted to evaluate whether he could handle that position. What I believe is, while there is a need to be quick and fast and agile to play small forward in the NBA, having that doesn’t mean he could be an average to a plus defender. It’s not just physical ability that allows you to defend NBA small forwards. You have to have mental agility. You have to have a comfort level with defending out in open space. That comes with experience. When you tell me you’ve been a three your whole life, in a city like Philadelphia, some of the best basketball in the country, and you’ve been defending basically guards, you have that mental agility.

“You’re used to going over and under screens, guarding the guard, not the big, flying down the floor to defend shooters, having to defend herky-jerk ball handlers. You are comfortable doing it because you’ve done it before.

“What I saw the week with Marcus was exactly that. He’s very comfortable out on the floor in space on both ends. That’s because it is what he has always done.

“He has a fantastic looking 3-point shot. As he shoots more and more of it, he’ll be a strong player in that regard. I think he will be a 38 to 42 percent 3-point shooter. He’s very good coming off pin downs, very good coming off flares and other cross screens on the perimeter. At 6-8, he’s not an easy guy to close out on. And he’s very good at shot-fake attacking you when you do. He gets his hips down. He needs to get his hips down lower, but he can fake and get by people.

“He’s a very tough minded kid. The thing I liked about him was his ambition to be great. This is a guy who wants to be great. I would not say that about a lot of guys I’ve trained. A lot of guys want to get drafted. Marcus wants to be the best player on his team. I think he has the potential to be close.

“Now, you factor in that he is a prolific low post scorer and you start thinking about the match up problems of threes trying to defend this cat in the low post. And you start thinking you have the most efficient scoring shooting guard in basketball on one wing and you have a 6-8, tough, rebounding, athletic, defensive-minded, elite scorer who can post up and shoot outside. You have Kevin’s ability shooting and getting to the line, and Marcus’ ability to hit outside shots and score paint buckets. You are talking about a team already No. 1 in offense last year after the trade, I think this is an upgrade.

“I thought he was a top five or six talent as a three. I think he played three at Kansas, he would have been even better than he was. I think he’s got the size and strength to defend elite small forwards. I’m not telling you he’s going to shut them down, but he’s not going to be a fun guy to defend on the other end because he’s going to post those guys up. That wears a guy down when you have to defend a guy like that.

“I think Patrick Patterson was the steal of the draft last year and I think Marcus Morris has absolutely the potential to be the same, with toughness and rebounding, too.

“He was super professional always early, took stretching seriously, lifting seriously, working seriously. He’s even more motivated now.