Research in Motion mounted an impressive rally over the past few months in anticipation to the release of its new BlackBerry 10 smartphones, yet investors may have been irrationally exuberant. Recent channel checks by Canaccord Genuity suggest sales have dramatically underperformed previous estimates, mainly because of supply constraints and limited support from carriers. While the product may look good, it will be difficult for RIM’s Z10s and Q10s to compete with a host of new Android and Window phones, and possibly a new iPhone expected in the first half of 2013, according to Canaccord’s analysts.

Shares in Research in Motion are up nearly 100% over the past 6 months, but the company may be setting itself up to disappoint markets big time. While their new BlackBerry 10 phones have received good reviews, they are dramatically underperforming Wall Street estimates when it comes to sales.

Channel checks in the U.K. and Canada, where the phones are already available, by Canaccord Genuity have forced them to revise their sales estimates for the new Z10s, which are now expected at only 300,000 in the February quarter, down from a previous estimate of 1.75 million units.

RIM, which is in the process of renaming the company BlackBerry, faces a host of problems that have flogged other smartphone makers in the past. First and foremost, limited supply is capping the company’s capacity to sell BlackBerry 10 products, Canaccord’s Michael Walkley noted. Apple suffered this problem with several of their iPhone models, missing out on potential sales after being unable to crank out enough phones to meet demand.

But RIM isn’t so lucky. Despite supply constraints, the Z10s and Q10s haven’t faced “overwhelming demand” at all. One of the reasons is pricing: BlackBerry’s new smartphones cost about the same as their major competitors Apple and Samsung's competing models after taking into account carrier subsidies. And that brings another problem to the fore: it's not just consumers, carriers haven’t been all that enthusiastic about RIM’s newest products either.

Carrier support in the U.S., where the new BlackBerrys are expected in mid-March, has been modest at most. Sprint, for example, will only be launching the Q10 (which comes with the traditional, physical QWERTY keyboard), while T-Mobile will only commercialize the touch screen-only Z10. Verizon Wireless and AT&T, the two largest U.S. providers, will carry both models. Weak demand will mean carriers won’t build meaningful inventories of BlackBerry 10 smartphones, Walkley said, as they will keep an eye out for new Android and Windows phones, and possibly a new Apple iPhone coming in the first half of 2013.

Research in Motion is banking on their new BlackBerrys to turn around an ailing company. Once the hottest smartphone maker, Research in Motion has lagged Apple in terms of creativity and disruption, and Samsung, in keeping up with the pack. Even Nokia, revamped after joining forces with Microsoft, looks more solid. And, while the new BlackBerry 10 models look sleek and feel good, the company is navigating the difficult waters of optimizing its supply chain and developing a solid marketing strategy to get back in the game. After a couple of weeks in the market, the new BlackBerrys don’t seem to be doing too well.