I agree with the ECRI part - hard to see any recession in these numbers. I thought they would end up being proven right but that seems about as likely now as Gary Johnson winning the Presidency next week.

On the other hand I just read this from Dwaine Van Vuren, this morning:

http://bit.ly/VikqUrOn the Brink of Global RecessionBY DWAINE VAN VUUREN"The Global Economy is on the brink of a recession with 58% of 29 OECD countries experiencing business cycle contractions. The chart below shows OECD defined global contractions (grey shaded areas) together with the percentage of 29 OECD member countries experiencing slowdowns. It is evident that whenever 50% or more of countries enter contraction (red dotted line) that the odds of global recession are very high."

Right. 3 to 4 months is not the time frame to worry about. 1st and 2nd quarter next year shaping up for negative growth in 1st qtr and flat in the second. Big changes for the subsidy mix on tap, taxes, regulations, fiscal cliff stuff, etc, but we will have QEi at the same time. So we may get repeats of equity dives as bad economic data invoke risk off, followed up by reinflating from ramp ups in the volume of QEi each month.

No recession? Anybody believe these numbers at all? Every day, more big layoffs and ZERO new hiring. Cummins just reported layoffs of up to 1500. Most economists say Europe is in recession next year, probably US too. Remember that this is election time and the sources for all of our economic stats include the admin loving US Fed Govt (BLS) and are reported and spun to always find some good news by the same media that does not think the Benghazi story is a story at all. Come on folks, wake up! The fix is in for BO but it won't hunt this time because it's painfully obvious that the 4th estate is doing its best to make the worst look good, and intelligent folks know it.

Galt, i suspected that ecri would turn out to be right as well, esp when retail and industrial production started falling and empl growth got almost to zero, but it didn't happen, and the downward revisions they expected have been upward revisions.

ECRI said if no recession by june they were wrong.. so they were wrong...

The US economy has smaller trade flows as a percentage of GDP and hence less influenced by economic activity outside the States. About 84% of what Americans of what Americans consume on a value-added basis is produced in America.

Careful here. Granted inventory is shrinking, but you also have the Fed attempting to reinflate real estate with QEi. If something happens to that subsidy mix propping up real estate prices, then you better have a plan to protect yourself.

Exactly. Previous recoveries have seen gains in the 400k range which naturally moves the unemployment number down. We have been moving it down with a combination of part-time hires and people dropping out of the workforce.

People getting part-time jobs are not going to be the ones rushing out to buy new homes. You buy a house when you feel secure about the future and the new trend of generational housing where multiple generations live under one roof is not positive for the economy overall. Instead of three houses spread across the generations you now have one.

Something like 80% of black males 20-29 are in jail, on probation, or on parole -- mostly as the enemy in the War on Drugs. White kids get deferred adjudication. The incumbent said he would not pursue this war, but he has sicced his DOJ dogs on CA with the Constitution-threatening seizure of property without process. What I haven't figured out is what he gains.

So far as I am concerned, this viciously racist policy trumps all.

Meanwhile, we have armed anarchist insurrection in a Western Democracy within shouting distance of the border of my state. Apparently unlike other educated Americans, this concerns me as well.

The other crap is what we all should worry about, like electing Grover Norquist, Dick Armey, Carl Rove, Ann Coulter etc. to run the government. As Norquist put it, we don't need a president to tell us what policy should be, we just need somebody to sign this stuff. It will be a cold day in hell when I vote for this bunch.

More blacks in Jail than in College. What a sad state of affairs and getting much worse over the last 4 years. But this is not because of racism. Its quite simply because so many unfortunately felt the Govt would solve their life's problems with the election of BO. This is not about race at all, it's culture. And nobody in the media has the courage to put this culture down and kill it for the sake of the people that don't know better. Blacks will vote en masse for Obama - look at the polling stations and see the sadness of lemmings at the cliff.

Forget the politics, the numbers showed a positive direction which I hope continues. I believe these were some of the best numbers in what has been an absolutely terrible recovery.I hope they are the start of a more positive trend. I will hope, although I am very suspect.

The economy is looked at through rose colored glasses ONLY by the folks on the left - I would guess they financially benefit from govt largesse, so we will never change their views until they are no longer on dole.

Re our election, ask anyone who voted for Obama (other than Blacks) what they do for a living, you will see my point.