Baltic test for arms control amid Nato and Russian tension

Arms control is not an imperative for tranquil times but rather a tool for building — or rebuilding — trust between adversaries, write Volker Perthes and Oliver Meier

SINCE Russia’s annexation of Crimea in early 2014, its political and military relations with the West have deteriorated sharply. Russian military redeployments, exercises, and threats have increased insecurity across Europe. Nato has responded by increasing its military presence in Central Europe, fuelling fears of encirclement in the Kremlin.

To head off the risk of an arms race or military confrontation, both sides must urgently agree to reciprocal measures to limit military capabilities and engage in arms control.

Of course, Russia and Nato have very different ideas about a peaceful and stable European security order. But the same was true during the Cold War, and the two sides made progress by using arms-control instruments to manage their relationship and mitigate the risk of war.

Today, however, there is substantial disagreement among Nato members about the preconditions, content, and format of possible arms-control talks with Russia.

Last August, German foreign minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier suggested that all interested countries in Europe should attempt to “relaunch” arms control in Europe “as a tried and tested means of risk reduction, transparency, and confidence building between Russia and the West”.

Six weeks later, the US robustly rejected that proposal, asserting that, as long as Russia remains on its current course, there is “simply no basis” for new arms-control talks. Instead, argued the US, existing agreements should be revitalised.

Germany’s proposal may be too ambitious. But America’s proposal is not ambitious enough, and, perhaps more important, it ignores the failure of past attempts to modernise key accords like the Treaty on Conventional Forces in Europe and the Open Skies Treaty.

A better approach — more feasible than Germany’s and more effective than America’s — would be a push by both countries for Steinmeier-style arms control in just one European region: The Baltic rim.

Since Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea, mistrust between Nato and non-Nato members in the Baltic region has intensified, making that region particularly vulnerable to conflict.

Nato now must strike a balance between, on one hand, meaningful reassurance for its own Baltic and Central European members and deterrence vis-à-vis Russia, and, on the other hand, continued co-operation and dialogue with Russia.

In this sense, the Baltic Sea region could become a proving ground for political strategies to ease tensions between Nato and Russia.

Nato has always considered deterrence and arms control to be two pillars of a strategy for maintaining European stability. For this reason, relaunching arms control for the Baltic Sea region need not affect existing deterrence measures, including the rotating presence of four Nato battalions in the Baltic states and Poland. Unilateral troop reductions are not where the arms-control negotiation process should begin.

Instead, that process should begin with a structured conversation on topics of concern for regional actors. After all, dialogue is not only a soft policy instrument for handling matters like trade or environmental co-operation; it is also essential to any security policy that looks beyond deterrence. The goal should be confidence-building measures and agreed limits on military capabilities. Arms control depends on transparency. Fortunately, Nato, as an actor with a defensive conventional-force posture in the Baltic region, has plenty of reason to support transparency. The aggressor gains an advantage from concealment and secrecy — hallmarks of the “hybrid” warfare that the Baltics have feared, particularly since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Against this background, Nato should pursue a new arms-control dialogue with the goal of boosting transparency concerning military capabilities relevant for unconventional warfare and providing early warning of destabilising moves that are not quite acts of war.

Efforts to promote sub-regional arms control would enhance European security in general, complementing efforts to establish the parameters of a new comprehensive security system for Europe. What works in the Baltic region could be adjusted and applied on a larger scale.

Arms control is not an imperative for tranquil times or a reward for reassuring behaviour; it is a tool for building — or rebuilding — trust between adversaries. To use it effectively, each side must first gain some insight into the other’s perspective and intentions — an effort in which semi-official talks can play an important role.

Because Russian reticence about engaging in a dialogue would point to a desire to rely on military surprises in the future, even a failed dialogue would benefit Nato and the Baltic states. It would certainly be better than nothing.

Volker Perthes is director of Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, the German institute for international and security affairs. Oliver Meier is the deputy head of the international security research division at SWP. Copyright: Project Syndicate