Game Analysis

There will be high winds and rain on Thursday night but we still believe the Patriots will move the ball with ease on offense. Tom Brady is targeting his running backs on 32% of passes (2nd-most) and James White is gaining 1.96 yards per route run (4th). New York’s defense has no chance of stopping White out of the backfield as they are allowing a league-high 10.2 yards per target to opposing running backs this season with cluster injuries at linebacker causing communication issues. Meanwhile, Grant Haley is surrendering 1.57 yards per cover snap in the slot (5th-worst) and I’m expecting a dominant performance by Julian Edelman, who I expect will play with his chest injury (I expect Josh Gordon to also play).

Daniel Jones managed just 3.5 yards per pass play last week versus Mike Zimmer’s defense and it is unlikely to get any better against Bill Belichick in Foxboro this week. Belichick is 8-4 ATS versus rookie quarterbacks in New England with the opposing offenses averaging just 12.6 points per game. Jones will be without his two best receivers Evan Engram and Sterling Shepard, who are worth about a point combined. The overrated Golden Tate gained just 0.41 yards per route run in his debut and he’ll be blanketed this game by Jonathan Jones, who is conceding only 0.64 yards per cover snap in the slot (5th). Jones also won’t get any help from the ground game with Saquon Barkley and Wayne Gallman expected to miss this contest versus New England’s 3rd-rated rush defense.

Tom Brady’s top two weapons in the receiving game have favorable matchups while Daniel Jones is in an extremely difficult spot for a rookie quarterback. Our model favors the Patriots by 20.9 with a predicted total of 46.5 after subtracting 4.6 points due to the weather conditions. New England’s offense may get conservative in the second half so the first half team total is probably offering the most value here, although the model projects 33.7 points for the Pats for the game. In addition to the line value, the superior team usually has an edge when both teams play on a short week, as Thursday favorites of more than 10 points are 19-4 ATS since 1980.

New England is a 1-Star Best Bet at -17 or less and New England’s First-Half Team Total Over 16.5 is a 1-Star Best Bet up to -120 odds (the game Team Total Over 30.5 or less is an alternate play).