Flood havoc in the north and east: India Meteorological Department (IMD) still ineffectual

The spate of floods lashing half a dozen states in the north and east of India has raised doubts — once again — about India’s capability to forecast monsoons and launch rescue and rehabilitation operations to assist the affected in time. Recurring floods in many parts of the country are surprising as India Meteorological Department (IMD) estimates show that total rainfall till the middle of last week is about a fifth lower than the normal rains. But this has not prevented the rash of floods from inundating vast spaces in various regions.

What is more startling is that current floods are occurring in regions where the shortage in rainfall has been the highest so far, namely northwest India where cumulative rainfall is 29% short and east and northeast India where rainfall is 23% below normal.

The primary reason for the floods is heavy rainfall in the Himalayan region, including in Nepal, which has caused the rivers to flood in the Gangetic plain and in other regions. In fact the rainfall figures for last week show that rains in east and northeast India were 7% higher than the normal. The regions with widespread rainfall include Sikkim, Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh and northern parts of West Bengal. Cooch Behar seems to be the worst affected in Bengal.

Among the worst affected in north India is Bihar with daily rainfall substantially high in places like Forbesganj, Islampur, Kodwanpur, Barhiya and Khagadia. Most recent estimates show flooding in almost a dozen districts of Bihar. This has affected four lakh people and killed a few. The worst affected are Darbhanga, Nalanda, West Champaran and Patna where thousands of people have been forced into rescue shelters.

The scenario is also bad in neighbouring Uttar Pradesh where the river Rapti is flowing above the danger mark. The worst affected districts are Bahraich, Shravasti, Lakhimpur, Gonda, Barambaki, Faizabad and Sitapur. Almost two dozen people have been killed in floods and thousands marooned.

The worsening scenario has forced the government to dispatch almost a dozen National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) teams to the two states and provide helicopters to engage in rescue operations. Flood warning has been issued in Uttarakhand where fairly high rains are expected to continue most of the week.

The main worry is that weather forecasting authorities have been unable to provide any meaningful warnings in many of the places — warnings which could have alerted district administrations to launch rescue and rehabilitation operations or evacuate people out of the danger zones. Experts however say that environmental changes have made weather patterns move away from the normal and made them less predictable.

Extreme weather patterns have been occurring with increasing frequency putting authorities in a quandary. This is going to cause hardship to farmers and have an impact on agricultural production. It is now for the government to step in and ensure that the meteorological authorities develop the capabilities to warn people of any dangers and ensure that loss of life and livelihoods is minimised.