RFE/RL NEWSLINE Vol 3, No. 11, Part I, 18 January 1999

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RFE/RL NEWSLINE Vol 3, No. 11, Part I, 18 January 1999
A daily report of developments in Eastern and
Southeastern Europe, Russia, the Caucasus and Central
Asia prepared by the staff of Radio Free Europe/Radio
Liberty.
This is Part I, a compilation of news concerning Russia,
Transcaucasia and Central Asia. Part II covers Central,
Eastern, and Southeastern Europe and is distributed
simultaneously as a second document. Back issues of
RFE/RL NewsLine and the OMRI Daily Digest are online at
RFE/RL's Web site: http://www.rferl.org/newsline
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Headlines, Part I
* YELTSIN RETURNS TO HOSPITAL
* TOP IMF, US OFFICIALS DERIDE BUDGET
* AZERBAIJAN'S PRESIDENT HOSPITALIZED IN TURKEY
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RUSSIA
YELTSIN RETURNS TO HOSPITAL. Russian President Boris
Yeltsin was hospitalized on 17 January for an acute
bleeding stomach ulcer. The next day, doctors at
Moscow's Central Clinical Hospital proposed that Yeltsin
be treated with medicine over the next two to three
weeks rather than undergo surgery. Presidential
spokesman Dmitrii Yakushkin told NTV the same day that
the illness had developed "all of a sudden" and that
there had been no symptoms the previous day.
Acknowledging that the ulcer "could have been caused by
stress," Yakushkin added that it is unlikely to have
been caused by the overconsumption of aspirin, as had
been initially reported, since Yeltsin had stopped
taking aspirin for some time. A meeting with French
President Jacques Chirac planned for 28-29 January "is
most likely to be postponed," according to Yakushkin.
JAC
NEW CALLS FOR TRANSFERRING PRESIDENTIAL POWERS... No
changes have been made in Prime Minister Yevgenii
Primakov's schedule in connection with President
Yeltsin's illness, according to Primakov's press
secretary, Tatyana Aristarkhova. State Duma Chairman
Gennadii Seleznev told reporters on 18 January that the
president's illness will have "no effect" on the
country's political situation. Liberal Democratic Party
leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky said the president's
"diagnosis was not the most terrible," while Communist
Party leader Gennadii Zyuganov said that Yeltsin's
illness should be treated and not commented on, ITAR-
TASS reported. However, he suggested that "Yeltsin is
not in condition to exercise his duties" and that "one
should think about how to turn them over to the prime
minister and government and how to elect a new
president." Moscow Mayor Yurii Luzhkov suggested on 16
January that early presidential elections should be
seriously considered, given the problem of the Russian
president's "being not active enough." JAC
...AND CREATING OFFICE OF VICE PRESIDENT. Luzhkov told
Swedish Television on 15 January that the post of vice
president should be reintroduced in Russia,
"Nezavisimaya gazeta" reported the next day. Luzhkov
said that the elimination of the post from the
constitution had been a mistake owing to a "personal
conflict" that should now be rectified. JAC
TOP IMF, US OFFICIALS DERIDE BUDGET... IMF First Deputy
Managing Director Stanley Fischer told an investment
conference on 15 January that Russia's 1999 budget is
"neither sufficiently ambitious nor realistic." He added
that "fund staff estimate that it falls some 3-4
percentage points of GDP short of what is needed" and
"will entail a continuation of the cycle of large
deficits and every growing interest payments." The
previous day, U.S. Deputy Treasury Secretary Larry
Summers said that Russia will have to make "genuine and
realistic cuts" in its budget deficit if it wants IMF
assistance. JAC
...AS MASLYUKOV SAYS NOT TO WORRY. First Deputy Minister
Yurii Maslyukov downplayed Fischer's remarks, telling
reporters on 17 January that in a private conversation
Fischer "did not sound so categorical." "Segodnya" noted
the previous day that the Primakov government does not
seem fully aware of the international financial
institutions' (IFIs) dissatisfaction with Russia. The
daily quoted Maslyukov as saying that the IFIs have "no
questions" for Russia regarding its World Bank loans,
while the World Bank Country Director for Russia Michael
Carter warned that the Bank may suspend further
installments of its coal loan, unless it receives
clarification of the Russian government's plans for the
coal sector. Meanwhile, another brainstorming session to
resolve issues stemming from Russian economic program,
involving officials from the Russian government, IMF,
World Bank, and EBRD, opened in Moscow on 16 January.
According to Carter, the session is meant to clarify
issues before upcoming negotiations, "Segodnya"
reported. JAC
PRIMAKOV CALLS FOR NATIONAL UNITY... At a two-day
meeting of the inter-regional association Siberian
Accord in Kemerovo on 15 January, Prime Minister
Primakov warned Siberian governors that "there can be no
talk of conflict between the center and the regions" and
that separatist trends "must be quelled, liquidated, and
uprooted." Primakov called for the "restoration of the
vertical state power structure, where all matters would
be solved jointly by the center and local authorities."
Primakov and Kemerovo Governor Aman Tuleev said a recent
agreement signed by them is a new model for cooperation
between the center and the regions, "Segodnya" reported
on 16 January. Under the agreement, the Kemerovo Oblast
administration can appoint up to 50 percent of the
boards of directors of local coal mining enterprises. In
addition, oblast authorities must be consulted on sales
of coal company shares. JAC
...DEFENDS THE BUDGET. Prime Minister Primakov also
defended the 1999 budget against Krasnoyarsk Governor
Aleksandr Lebed's charge that the document "puts regions
in the hardest position" and should be rejected
outright. According to Primakov, it would be "simply
ridiculous" to reject the budget, arguing that revenues
and expenditures are "balanced enough" and cannot be
expanded. Acknowledging that some redistribution of
spending is possible, he noted that Russia "cannot turn
its back on the army," Interfax reported. JAC
RUSSIAN DIPLOMAT DENIES OCALAN IN MOSCOW. Russian
Ambassador to Turkey Aleksandr Lebedev told ITAR-TASS on
17 January that Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) leader
Abdullah Ocalan has not returned to Moscow from Italy.
Lebedev said all Russian consulates have been instructed
to deny Ocalan a visa. A spokesman for the Russian
Security Service declined on 17 January either to
confirm or deny that Ocalan might travel to Moscow,
according to Interfax. On 16 January, Ocalan left Italy
for an unknown destination. He had been apprehended on
arrival in Rome from Moscow last November. LF
FORMER VLADIVOSTOK MAYOR WINS VICTORY OF SORTS AT POLLS.
Voters in Vladivostok elected backers of recently ousted
former Mayor Viktor Cherepkov to the city's local
assembly on 17 January, ITAR-TASS reported. Cherepkov
supporters won 15 out of 16 electoral districts in which
the ballot was considered valid. In six other districts,
turnout was too low for the vote to be valid. Voters had
been expected also to vote for a new mayor the same day
but a local court canceled that ballot last week (see
"RFE/RL Newsline," 11 January 1999). Overall, voter
turnout was low, according to election committee
chairwoman Tatyana Plokhova. On 16 January, one polling
station was broken into and 37 ballot sheets and an
electoral commission stamp stolen, Interfax reported.
JAC
NEW POLITICAL FAULTLINES EMERGE IN ST. PETERSBURG.
Yabloko has recalled party member Igor Artemiev from the
post of St. Petersburg deputy governor and chairman of
the city finance committee, declaring that it will now
be in opposition to St. Petersburg Governor Vladimir
Yakovlev and his government, ITAR-TASS reported on 17
January. Aleksandr Shishlov, chairman of Yabloko's St.
Petersburg branch, told the agency that the decision was
prompted by Governor Yakovlev's repeated violations of a
1996 coalition agreement. Meanwhile, another alliance in
St. Petersburg is also crumbling. Four deputies in the
city's legislative assembly from the Yurii Boldyrev Bloc
have announced they are quitting the movement and are
now willing to cooperate with Governor Yakovlev's
government, "Vremya MN" reported on 15 January.
According to the newspaper, many members of the assembly
were elected solely because they joined the bloc, whose
main founding principle was strict party discipline. JAC
DEBT RATING FOR SVERDLOVSK OBLAST HITS BOTTOM. In its
annual review of the economy of Sverdlovsk Oblast,
international credit rating agency Moody's reported that
the country's economic crisis has hit the region hard,
reducing its ability to pay its foreign debt, "Vremya
MN" reported on 15 January. The agency gave Sverdlovsk
the lowest rating on its scale, a Caa3, for the region's
ability to repay its hard currency debt of 954 million
rubles ($44 million). Moody's ranked the city of Moscow
the most reliable of all Russia's cities and towns in
terms of debt repayment. JAC
KALMYKIA OFFERS DZERZHINSKII A HOME. President of the
Republic of Kalmykia Kirsan Ilyumzhinov has offered the
territory of his republic as a permanent home for a
monument of Felix Dzerzhinskii, founder of the Cheka,
that the Duma recently voted to restore to its original
place on Lubyanka Square in Moscow (see "RFE/RL
Newsline," 1 December 1998), "Nezavisimaya gazeta"
reported on 16 January. Ilyumzhinov has volunteered
Kalmykia because there have been some disagreements
between the Duma and Moscow authorities over the
restoration. JAC
LEAKS REPORTED FROM NICHOLAS II ICON. Myrrh, a yellowish
to reddish brown aromatic resin, has been flowing from
an icon of Tsar Nicholas II for the past two months in
Moscow's Ascension Church, Archpriest Vasilii Golovanov
told ITAR-TASS on 16 January. According to Golovanov,
hundreds of Muscovites and pilgrims from across Russia
have witnessed the miracle, which will likely be used as
evidence that Nicholas II should be canonized. Myrrh
first started flowing from the icon on 7 November, the
anniversary of the 1917 Bolshevik revolution, Golovanov
claimed. JAC
CHECHEN FIELD COMMANDERS IGNORE PARLIAMENT SUMMONS. A
special session of the Chechen parliament scheduled for
17 January failed to take place because Shamil Basaev,
Khamzat Belaev, and former acting Chechen President
Zelimkhan Yandarbiev ignored a request to attend,
Interfax reported. The session was to have discussed the
24 December decision taken by the Chechen Supreme
Shariah Court under pressure from the field commanders
to suspend the powers of the parliament (see "RFE/RL
Newsline," 4 January 1999). Speaking on Ekho Moskvy on
16 January, Russian presidential envoy to Chechnya
Valentin Vlasov said that Moscow should have provided
more economic and political support to President Aslan
Maskhadov in accordance with the agreements signed by
Maskhadov and President Yeltsin in May 1997. He
criticized Yeltsin for not more systematically
monitoring the government's implementation of those
agreements. LF
NEW BODY TO ADDRESS OSSETIAN-INGUSH CONFLICT. At a
special conference on 16 January, the Russian Security
Council set up a new working group to address the
consequences of the 1992 conflict in North Ossetia's
disputed Prigorodnyi Raion, Interfax reported.
Participants agreed that progress toward a solution of
the conflict was made last year, not least owing to the
good will of the presidents of the two republics
involved. The working group includes Russian Interior
Minister Sergei Stepashin, Ingush President Ruslan
Aushev, North Ossetian President Aleksandr Dzasokhov,
and Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai
Bordyuzha. The last-named subsequently briefed President
Yeltsin on the conference proceedings. LF
TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
AZERBAIJAN'S PRESIDENT HOSPITALIZED IN TURKEY. Heidar
Aliev was flown to Ankara on 17 January and taken to a
military hospital to be treated for bronchitis and a
respiratory infection. Azerbaijani government officials
denied rumors that Aliev, who is 75, is also suffering
from cardiac problems. LF
FORMER TOP ARMENIAN OFFICIALS SET UP NEW ORGANIZATION.
Several former leading members of the Armenian Pan-
National Movement (HHSh), including former deputy
parliamentary speakers Ara Sahakian and Karapet
Rubinian, have formed what they say is a non-political
organization named "EuroWay" to promote Western-style
democracy in Armenia, RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau reported
on 15 January. LF
PROMINENT ARMENIAN OPPOSITION LEADER ASSESSES ELECTION
CHANCES. Interviewed by RFE/RL's Yerevan bureau on 16
January, HHSh chairman Vano Siradeghian predicted that
the movement will gain popularity in the runup to the
May parliamentary elections. He added that the party may
poll more than 10 percent of the vote. But Siradeghian
predicted that no single party will have an absolute
majority in the new parliament. He said the Republican
Party, created on the basis of the Yerkrapah union of
veterans of the Karabakh war, would be lucky to receive
25 percent of the vote. The Yerkrapah are currently the
largest group within the parliament. Siradeghian also
forecast that tensions between President Robert
Kocharian and Defense Minister Vazgen Sargsian will
inevitably increase. LF
FINAL ELECTION RESULTS RELEASED IN KAZAKHSTAN. According
to data released by the Central Electoral Commission on
16 January, incumbent Nursultan Nazarbayev polled 79.78
percent of the vote in the 10 January presidential
election, ITAR-TASS reported. Communist Party leader
Serikbolsyn Abdildin received 11.7 percent, Customs
Committee chairman Gani Kasymov 4.61 percent, and
Senator Engels Gabbasov 0.76 percent. LF
RUSSIAN BORDER GUARD CHIEF IN KYRGYZSTAN. Meeting in
Bishkek on 15 January, General Konstantin Totskii and
Kyrgyzstan's President Askar Akayev discussed how to
implement the agreement concluded last summer whereby
Russian border guards will gradually be withdrawn from
Kyrgyzstan and Kyrgyz border guards will take over their
duties (see "RFE/RL Newsline," 25 August 1998), ITAR-
TASS reported. That agreement was due to take effect on
1 January 1999, according to RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau.
But Kyrgyzstan's Defense Minister Marat Subanov told
journalists after the talks that a timetable for the
Russian withdrawal still has to be drafted. He added
that Russia will transfer some military equipment to
Kyrgyzstan. LF
PREMIER SAYS ECONOMIC SITUATION IN KYRGYZSTAN
'SERIOUS'... Addressing parliament on 15 January,
Jumabek Ibraimov expressed concern at the economic
situation in Kyrgyzstan and pledged "strong measures" to
improve it, including tighter fiscal discipline and a
crackdown on smuggling, RFE/RL's Bishkek bureau
reported. Also on 15 January, "Vremya-MN" reported that
GDP growth in Kyrgyzstan totaled only 2.2 percent
compared with the projected 4.6 percent. Industrial
output in 1998 was only one third of the 1991 level, the
news paper reported. Last year, wages and pension
arrears skyrocketed from almost nil to 720 million som
(about $24 million). LF
...AS FINANCE MINISTER ASSESSES BUDGET, FOREIGN LOANS.
In an interview with "Slovo Kyrgyzstana" published on 15
January, Finance Minister and former Central Bank
chairman Marat Sultanov said that the 1999 draft budget,
approved by the upper but not the lower chamber of
parliament, requires "serious amendments." Sultanov said
that the Russian financial crisis has had little impact
on Kyrgyzstan, noting that foreign currency reserves
fell in 1998 from $195 million to $189 million. He said
that the problems involved in rescheduling Kyrgzystan's
foreign debt are not insoluble but warned that more "bad
loans" could seriously complicate the situation. The
National Bank announced on 16 January that it has
reached agreement with Turkey's Ex-Im Bank on postponing
repayment of a $75 million credit. In Moscow last week,
Ibraimov and his Russian counterpart, Yevgenii Primakov,
agreed on postponing repayment of Kyrgyzstan's $132
million debt to Russia. Sultanov said that the Kyrgyz
government has offered to purchase some of Russia's
foreign debt. LF
TAJIK PRESIDENT WARNS OF DRUGS THREAT. Imomali Rakhmonov
told an international conference in Dushanbe on 15
January that drugs are being smuggled into his country
from neighboring Afghanistan at the rate of 1 ton per
day, Reuters and ITAR-TASS reported. He said the number
of addicts in Tajikistan is increasing, and he pleaded
for additional international aid to halt drug
trafficking through Tajikistan to third countries. The
following day, the German government donated several
thousand dollars' worth of computers and other equipment
to the Tajik anti-narcotics commission, ITAR-TASS
reported. Interfax reported on 15 January that
Uzbekistan registered an 11 percent increase in drug
trafficking during the first 10 months of 1998. LF
U.S. EMBASSY IN TAJIKISTAN RESUMES NORMAL OPERATIONS.
U.S. Ambassador Robert Finn told journalists in Dushanbe
on 15 January that the embassy has returned to normal
operations, which were suspended in September 1998
following the bombings of U.S. embassies in Africa one
month earlier. At that time, embassy staff were
evacuated from Dushanbe to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
But he added that the embassy is currently looking for a
site on which to build a more secure building, according
to Asia-Plus. Finn also said that the U.S. will grant
Tajikistan assistance worth some $47 million in aid in
1999, including $30 million in food aid, ITAR-TASS
reported. LF
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