It was a frigid morning all across the region today. Many Piedmont spots hit the teens with some mountain spots in the single digits. Off to our west, it was very cold through the Deep South and Lower Mississippi Valley. Some places in Mississippi hit single digits!

However, a gradual moderating trend will continue through the weekend with 50s for highs tomorrow and lower 60s Sunday. Both days will feature plenty of sun.

Next week...

A much quieter, much milder week is on tap next week compared to most of the winter. Highs most days will surge well up into the 60s, and I still think most locations will manage to top 70 by the end of the week.

Lots of questions as to whether or not this is the end of cold weather for the season. It is a little early to say that....I think at some point, we end up in cold air again...I just don't have a feel for when yet. And of course, we have made a habit recently of getting snow in March, so we shall see.

>> Thursday, February 10, 2011

Here is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video....snow ending this morning with warmer times ahead....

Before I go any further, I want to give a big 'thank you' to Hank Allen for providing some great content while I was away. Great job, and I appreciate you guys reading what he had to say.

Our snow-producing system behaved just about as expected around the Carolinas. The forecast wording I put here on the blog yesterday worked out pretty nicely....here is my quote from yesterday morning:

"Here is the accumulation map I drew for this morning. For the I-85 corridor, this is a very low-impact type event....a dusting to at most an inch or so for most. Many places will likely see no snow accumulation at all."

Some schools and businesses operated on delays this morning, and there were some slick spots on some roads. But all in all, it was indeed a pretty low-impact event around here for most. How about up to two feet of snow in northern Arkansas though! And Fayetteville, AR recorded their coldest temperature ever this morning..... -18!

Highs will be in the 40s today with lots of afternoon sun....upper 40s to lower 50s tomorrow.

Warmer weather...

By Sunday, highs should surge into the 60s, and they will stay there most days right through next work week. I think it is completely possible that some lower 70s creep in for some highs by Thursday or Friday next week. Like I said in the video, I have issued a "Spring Fever Watch" for next week....

Down the road, the NAO and AO show signs of moving at least back to neutral while the PNA stays negative. We will see where the pattern might head as we get toward the latter stages of February.

>> Wednesday, February 09, 2011

Here is today's edition of the Carolina Weather Video.....

Next system is approaching from the west. Snow is flying in northeast TX, much of Arkansas, eastern OK, and into parts of MO and KS as I am typing this. The snow will spread to the east and southeast today, and by the end of the day will cover much of north and central MS, western AL, and TN.

This is a deal though where the main upper level energy will be dampening out and transferring over to a coastal low, so I anticipate a relative min in snow from the Upstate of SC into a good chunk of the Piedmont of NC. As the coastal low takes over, more significant snow accumulations are possible near the coast and coastal plain.

Here is the accumulation map I drew for this morning. For the I-85 corridor, this is a very low-impact type event....a dusting to at most an inch or so for most. Many places will likely see no snow accumulation at all.

We will keep an eye on it though....surprises are always possible somewhere.

>> Tuesday, February 08, 2011

Winter Storm Watches are up for most of northern and central Mississippi and north and central Alabama this morning for the upcoming storm system later Wednesday into Wednesday night.

This system is a tough one in that it will be weakening as it heads from the southern Plains into the Southeast. At this point, I really don't have a good feeling about this producing significant snows in the non-mountain areas of the Carolinas...and the snow chances are actually much higher off to the west, in the areas under a winter storm watch. It needs to be watched though, and the RPM (Stormcast) is certainly aggressive in bringing the snow into the Carolinas......but it is tough to find much other model support for it.

So, at this point, for snow fans outside the mountains, I wouldn't be too excited....but the potential is there for a little snow, if this system can dampen out a bit more slowly.

I have not had the chance to do the normal amount of analysis I would normally do, so I was hesitant to even put anything up this morning. So, take caution! But I will be back in full swing tomorrow morning, and we will definitely see how things look then.

A big warm-up is on the way by later this weekend into next week......60s for highs maybe as soon as Sunday.

>> Monday, February 07, 2011

Hey guys! Just a quick check-in.....Still not back at work today....I am back at the office full throttle Wednesday morning.

Couple of storm systems swinging through through this week....but precip totals overall look pretty light. With the system arriving by Thursday, the NAM and European model are slower to weaken the system than some other modeling as it moves into the region. I really haven't dipped into the forecasting waters deeply enough for any real specifics or confidence though, so take with a grain of salt.

Our old friend, the PNA, is tanking into the negative category. The NAO and AO are also likely going to remain generally positive....so that means warmer weather is on the horizon. Is this the end of winter? Probably not, but a milder stretch is definitely ahead.

>> Sunday, February 06, 2011

Hi everybody. Quick Sunday morning update here. Pretty quiet day on tap to round out the weekend. Just took a quick glimpse at the models over the next few days. Looks like they are backing off quite a bit now on the arctic air that I mentioned on Friday. Next chance of moisture moves in quick for your Monday to start the week. Again most of this looks like rain but by later tomorrow evening and tomorrow night watch out for the potential of some freezing rain or at least a wintry mix in the higher elevations.

Hope you enjoy the Super Bowl today. Matthew will be back in here tomorrow morning so he'll have all the updates for your weather to start the week. I appreciate you allowing me to post while he's out and all the supportive comments. I'm sure I'll drop in every now and then for my 2 cents. Thanks again and take care!