Gold could see a near-term downside reversal

After a downbeat European session, sentiment managed to recover in US trade, despite a continuation of Iraq concerns.

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2014-06-16T23:49:32+0100

Source:Bloomberg

There was some positive data out of the US including the Empire State manufacturing index, industrial production and the NAHB housing market index. However, investors seem to be looking ahead to the Fed meeting.

The IMF was also on the wires downgrading the US growth forecast for 2014 to 2% (from 2.8%) and maintained 2015 growth at 3%. Major currency pairs just continue to hold tight ranges with uncertainty remaining the dominant theme.

Gold retreated from its highs in Asian trade after encountering a downtrend resistance which has been in place since April. The downtrend came in at around 1282 and the precious metal failed to close above this level. This could result in a near-term reversal to the downside. The yen was surprisingly subdued and even a round of impressive US economic data wasn’t enough to push USD/JPY any higher.

IG Charts

Monetary policy minutes in focus

The AUD will be back in focus today ahead of the RBA’s monetary policy meeting minutes from the June 3 meeting. In the statement the RBA highlighted the exchange rate remains historically high, particularly given the further decline in commodity prices. However, given the local economy is looking to rebalance away from the mining sector dependence, perhaps this notion will slowly start to change.

Additionally it seems the moves in AUD/USD recently have been to do with low US yields. As a result, it is hard to position on RBA rhetoric alone. Most analysts feel RBA intervention is unlikely anytime soon. From a rates perspective, an increasing number of analysts are abandoning rate cut calls with Macquarie being the latest one to do so. Macquarie has moved from expecting a Q4 rate cut to a rate hike in Q1 of 2016.

Another flat open for the ASX 200

Ahead of the local market open, we are calling the ASX 200 down a couple of points to 5410. A slight positive is the fact the market managed to recover from the lows yesterday and finished the day in the black. This is generally encouraging as far as momentum goes. However, no doubt focus will be on the further slide in iron ore prices to 89. This will be the first time iron ore has traded below 90 since September 2012 when we went on to test a low of 86.70.

FMG recovered yesterday after announcing a $275 million investment in ships and some bargain hunting after testing $4. However, AGO is yet to see a bottom and just continues to struggle to find its footing. Gold miners might give back some of their recent gains today after the pullback in the precious metal. Worley Parsons had a great day yesterday on the back of a JP Morgan upgrade and its energy exposure. Traders could look to eye $17.50 in the near term as it is the resistance from the November 2014 gap.

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