Six things Romney must do to turn the presidential election around

There are two undeniable and contradictory threads running through the 2012 presidential election.

One: Mitt Romney has been losing ground ever since the end of the Republican National Convention and is trailing in almost every poll in almost every swing state.

Two: Barack Obama rarely wins more than 50 percent in national polls and a majority of Americans view his handling of the economy unfavorably. Despite the overwhelmingly gloomy press coverage of the Romney campaign, 47 percent of Americans say they will never vote for the Democratic incumbent, keeping hope alive for the Republican challenger.

Computer models indicate that Romney should be running at least 5 percentage points ahead of Obama now, given the nation’s high unemployment rate and low rate of economic growth. But he’s not.

“Mitt Romney is in a world of hurt, and it is going to be very difficult to turn it around,” said Cindy Rugeley, a political science professor at Texas Tech University.

Difficult, perhaps. But not impossible.

Here are six ways Romney could turn his struggling campaign around and build an anti-Obama majority this November:

1. Win the debates. Big.

Like Michael Dukakis in 1988 and John Kerry in 2004, Romney remains competitive but is trailing in key swing states heading into the debates. “He must score big to fundamentally change the trajectory of the race and build momentum heading into Election Day,” said Aaron Kall, director of debate at the University of Michigan. “Gov. Romney can’t tie or have close debates with President Obama — he must be perceived as the winner by the majority of undecided voters.”

Romney’s role model: Ronald Reagan. Amid the Iranian hostage crisis of 1980 and an inflation-ravaged economy, Reagan transformed a close race with unpopular Democratic President Jimmy Carter into a 10-point victory with a convincing performance in the campaign’s final debate.

2. Enunciate a clear, positive vision.

Back to Reagan again. Americans want an upbeat president who inspires them to greatness a clear vision of a brighter future, not a carping whiner. “Romney’s best path to triumph is to portray himself relentlessly as an exceptionally qualified Mister Fix it on the economy,” said Larry J. Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics.

The best way of doing that is to offer some concrete economic solutions, not the general promises of tax cuts and job creation he has been repeating for months. “He needs to be more specific,” said Lisa Garcia Bedolla, a political scientist at the University of California, Berkeley. “He needs to (explain) what he plans to do and how that’s going to be better than it was under George W. Bush.”

3. Develop a consistent message.

Hope and change. Whether you agree with Barack Obama or not, you remembered the core message of his 2008 presidential campaign. This year, once again, Obama has a consistent message — “forward” — which is reminiscent of Bill Clinton’s highly successful “bridge to the 21st century” theme from the 1996 re-election campaign.

Mitt Romney? One week he pledges to repeal Obamacare on his first day as president. Another week, he pledges to retain popular provisions of the president’s health-care law. In the Republican primaries, he denounced Texas Gov. Rick Perry as “liberal” on immigration, pledged to veto the DREAM Act and advocated “self-deportation.” Last week, he told an audience on Univision, “It’s time to put the politics aside and I will actually reform the immigration system to make it work for the people of America.” Then there’s the detour to explain his “47 percent” comment and his commitment to the “100 percent.” What’s the Republican challenger’s bumper-sticker message?

“Romney has signaled all year that he wants this election to be about the economy, but he keeps wandering off chasing pretty butterflies instead,” said Democratic consultant Harold Cook. “They keep running off in other directions, and in their efforts to score little tactical points along the way by dinging the president on random other issues, they keep losing sight of the ball — the economy.”

The message to Romney: Develop a message. Stick to it.

4. Neutralize the Medicare and Social Security issues.

Romney’s 20 percentage point lead among over-65 voters has been whittled down to 4. That’s one reason he has fallen behind in senior-heavy states such as Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Iowa. Older voters have always been problematic to Obama, but Republican vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan’s proposal to turn Medicare into a voucher program for those born after 1957 and the GOP ticket’s support for a partial privatization of Social Security has spooked many seniors — even though they would not be affected by any of the proposed changes.

Romney “will never ‘win’ the debate on Medicare and Social Security,” said George C. Edwards III, a professor of American government at Oxford University and Texas A&M. “Instead, he needs to stop the hemorrhaging. Seniors were the best age group for (John) McCain (in 2008) and the worst for Obama. When the focus was on health-care reform (in 2010), they were nervous and supported Republicans. When the focus is on Medicare and Social Security, they are nervous again but move toward the Democrats.”

5. Figure out a way to connect with blue-collar voters in the industrial heartland.

Romney is leading Obama among white working-class men in the industrial heartland, but many of those voters still don’t like the veteran businessman. “The middle that matters includes those blue-collar voters in the heartland,” said Cook. “Many of them may not be crazy about Obama, but they remain bewildered with what Romney has to offer them.”

Romney’s blue-collar blues are exacerbated by a sharp decline in his support among working-class women. While the GOP nominee is likely to win a majority of white, working-class men, “it would be better (for him) to win by bigger margins,” Edwards said. “His problem is not the working class. His problem is women of all classes.”

6. Hope for an Obama mistake. A big one.

If all else fails, there’s the political equivalent of the “Hail Mary pass” in football. The mythical “October surprise.” Romney must keep the pressure on the incumbent, hoping to force an error in the debates or the campaign trail.

“He will need a lot of luck and some intervening variable,” said Rugeley. “It is possible that Obama will screw up, or that some (international) event will occur that will cast doubt on Obama’s leadership. It seems the Obama administration is trying its hardest to screw up on Libya. For Romney to win, Obama would have to screw up in a big way.”