December 07, 2010

Klobuchar easily beats any 2012 opponent

Raleigh, N.C. – Amy Klobuchar is the most popular of 66 senators PPP has measured in 2010, and she won her first election to the Senate four years ago by 20 points. But that was in a Democratic wave. With the closeness of the still-contested 2010 gubernatorial race, and a generally more conservative electorate in the Midwest this year, Klobuchar could draw a strong challenge in 2012. But even emptying the GOP bench, and in an electorate in which Democrats barely outnumber Republicans, no one can come within ten points of defeating Klobuchar in PPP’s first test of that race.

Outgoing Governor Tim Pawlenty comes closest, but Klobuchar still beats him, 53-43. She could breathe easy if the Tea Party grassroots elevate one of their firebrands to the nomination, leading Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, 56-39. And she would give two victims of a recount a bigger run for their money than did Mark Dayton or Al Franken. She is ahead of former senator Norm Coleman, 54-40, and likely defeated gubernatorial candidate Tom Emmer, 56-38. Finally, she tops Congressman Erik Paulsen, 52-34.

Klobuchar almost literally has the unanimous support of her party, getting 93-98% of Democrats and losing only 1% to every one of the Republicans except Coleman, to whom she only loses 3%. She also has leads of 17 (against Pawlenty) to 26 points (versus Bachmann) with independents, and takes 6% (Pawlenty) to 11% (Bachmann and Emmer) of Republicans.

At 59-29, Klobuchar’s job approval rating and margin are the highest by six points over those of the next most popular senator, Scott Brown of Massachusetts. By comparison, colleague Al Franken sits at 45-42, and her most popular potential Republican opponent is Coleman, at 43-42. Klobuchar earns the favor of 26% from the opposite party, very unusual in this polarized climate. Bachmann is the least well liked overall, with a 37-51 favorability rating, just a hair worse than Emmer’s 37-49. Paulsen breaks even at 22-22, but 57% have no opinion of or have not heard of him.

“Amy Klobuchar is so popular President Obama may want to ride her coattails in 2012,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.

PPP surveyed 949 Minnesota voters on December 4th and 5th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.2%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q7 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 wereDemocrat Amy Klobuchar and RepublicanMichele Bachmann, who would you vote for?Amy Klobuchar ............................................... 56%Michele Bachmann ......................................... 39%Undecided....................................................... 4%

Q8 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 wereDemocrat Amy Klobuchar and RepublicanNorm Coleman, who would you vote for?Amy Klobuchar ............................................... 54%Norm Coleman................................................ 40%Undecided....................................................... 6%

Q9 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 wereDemocrat Amy Klobuchar and Republican TomEmmer, who would you vote for?Amy Klobuchar ............................................... 56%Tom Emmer .................................................... 38%Undecided....................................................... 6%

Q10 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 wereDemocrat Amy Klobuchar and Republican TimPawlenty, who would you vote for?Amy Klobuchar ............................................... 53%Tim Pawlenty .................................................. 43%Undecided....................................................... 4%

Q11 If the candidates for US Senate in 2012 wereDemocrat Amy Klobuchar and Republican ErikPaulsen, who would you vote for?Amy Klobuchar ............................................... 52%Erik Paulsen.................................................... 34%Undecided....................................................... 14%

Q12 Would you describe yourself as a liberal,moderate, or conservative?Liberal ............................................................. 20%Moderate......................................................... 41%Conservative................................................... 39%

Q13 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.Woman ........................................................... 51%Man................................................................. 49%

Q14 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If aRepublican, press 2. If you are an independentor identify with another party, press 3.Democrat ........................................................ 37%Republican...................................................... 34%Independent/Other.......................................... 29%

Q16 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you areolder than 65, press 4.18 to 29........................................................... 12%30 to 45........................................................... 26%46 to 65........................................................... 44%Older than 65.................................................. 18%

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