College Sports Blog

20 tips to help you fill out a perfect NCAA Tournament bracket

Ava Ulloa, 9, an actress from Matilda the Musical, inks her NCAA men's basketball bracket at Sardi's in New York, March 16, 2014. Ulloa is part of a panel of bracket pickers that, if not exactly expert, represent some of the rigorous, quantitative, creative and intuitive thinking out there. (Carey Wagner/The New York Times)

Having a tough time filling out that NCAA Tournament bracket? Relax, we got you covered.

Since you probably have a life and haven’t watched every tourney team play this season, we have some tips to make your picking a little easier.

We want you to win Warren Buffett’s $1 billion prize, so take a look at these 20 tips for filling out that perfect bracket. OK, it won’t be perfect, but at least you won’t look like a complete idiot in front of your friends.

And if you do win, remember your friends here at The Dallas Morning News.

1.) Please don’t pick a No. 16 seed to defeat a 1-seed. It has never happened.

2.) Pick a No. 1 seed to win it all. Eleven of the last 15 national champions were No. 1 seeds. The others consisted of one 2-seed and three 3-seeds.

3.) But be careful. Don’t choose all No. 1 seeds to reach AT&T Stadium. Since the NCAA started seeding teams in 1979, only once have all four No. 1 seeds made it to the Final Four (2008). At least one No. 1 seed has made the Final Four in every year except 1980, 2006 and 2011.

4.) Leave the No. 1 seeds out of your pre-Sweet 16 upsets. Since 1979, 56 No. 1 seeds have advanced to the Final Four. To compare, No. 2 seeds have advanced 30 times during those 35 tournaments.

5.) Sorry Michigan State, Louisville and Wichita State, you three have the wrong colors. Yes, Louisville won it all last year, but before that, the previous nine champions had some shade of blue on their jerseys. Good sign for Florida, Arizona and Duke.

6.) There’s a considerable gap between four and five seeds in the Round of 64. No. 4 seeds have advanced 78 percent of the time since 1985. No. 5 seeds have won 64.7 percent of the time. Pick two 12 over 5 upsets in your bracket. It’s happened 25 times since 1999.

7.) Pick one 13-seed to knock off a 4-seed. There’s been at least one 13 over a 4 in the last six tournaments.

8.) Pick at least one 11-seed to defeat a 6-seed. That’s happened at least once in the last nine tournaments.

9.) Get rid of one of your two seeds before the Sweet 16. Sorry Wisconsin, Michigan, Villanova and Kansas but at least one of you has to go. Only once since 1996 have all four No. 2 seeds made it to that round.

10.) When in doubt, don’t flip a coin, go with the experts. A good ranking system to look over is this one by Ken Pomeroy. For example, are you having trouble with the 8-9 macthup between Pittsburgh and Colorado? Pomeroy’s rankings would tell you to go with Pitt, his No. 18 overall team, over Colorado, his No. 64 team.

11.) Use some math. History shows that when you add up your Final Four seeds, the total shouldn’t go over 14. Only six times since 1979 has that number been higher than 14. For example, if you picked all No. 1 seeds, your total number would be four. The negative aspect of going with history is that two of the last three years the total has been over 14. It was 18 last year and 26 in 2011.

12.) Let the Big Ten and the Pac-12 prove you wrong. Those two major conferences have not produced a national champion over the last 13 seasons. The ACC leads all conferences with five titles in the last 13 tournaments.

13.) Avoid picking a 10, 12, 13, 14, 15 or 16 seed to advance to the Final Four. It has never happened.

14.) If you pick a 12-seed to win over a 5, think about picking them in their next game as well. Nearly 50 percent of the time No. 12 seeds win in the next round. According to Pregame.com, 27 times over the last 29 years a double-digit seed has reached the Sweet 16.

15.) Your Final Four shouldn’t include a seed lower than 9. Since 1979, a seed lower than 9 has reached the Final Four only three times. (LSU in 1986, George Mason in 2006 and VCU in 2011. All were 11 seeds.)

16.) Find teams with good point guard play. Michigan and Louisville reached the championship game last year because of this and it’s been that way for a while. Not many teams have cut down the nets without an elite guard handling the ball. Florida, Syracuse, Wichita State, Louisville, Arizona and Michigan State are all solid in this department.

17.) Somewhat surprisingly, finishing the regular season ranked No. 1 is not a good sign for the Florida Gators. Only four teams since 1990 have finished the regular season ranked No. 1 and went on to win the national championship.

18.) Pick with your head, not your heart. Just because you went to the University of Texas, that’s not a good enough reason to put the Longhorns in the Final Four. Picking your favorite teams will not lead to bracket success.

19.) Go with the proven coaches. The players change every year in college basketball but many of the coaches stay the same. Another way of overcoming a difficult decision is to pick the team with the more successful head coach. Eight coaches in this tournament have won 11 of the last 14 national championships. I’ll take my chances with teams led by Mike Krzyzewski, Rick Pitino, Roy Williams, Billy Donovan, Jim Boeheim, Tom Izzo, Bill Self and John Calipari.

20.) Avoid teams that have been struggling and get behind the teams that have recently caught fire. For example, Iowa has lost six of its last seven and Syracuse has lost five of its last seven. On the other hand, Virginia has won 16 of its last 17 and Baylor has won 10 of its last 12.

Bonus tip: Go back to the experts. If you aren’t familiar with Nate Silver, he was ridiculously accurate at predicting the 2008 and 2012 U.S. presidential elections. Silver, who now works for ESPN, recently broke down the percentages of each team’s chances of reaching the Final Four. For example, Arizona has a 42 percent chance, followed by Florida at 41 percent, Louisville at 38 percent and Michigan State at 24 percent.

Editor Picks

Comments

To post a comment, log into your chosen social network and then add your comment below. Your comments are subject to our Terms of Service and the privacy policy and terms of service of your social network. If you do not want to comment with a social network, please consider writing a letter to the editor.