The NATO Summit held in Chicago on May
20-21 under the leadership of U.S. President Barack Obama to deliberate
on the future of Afghanistan may well be the tipping-point for the
already strained U.S.-Pakistan relationship. Concurrently, electoral
developments in distant Cairo and the deplorable actions of the Taliban
in Afghanistan, where they poisoned a girls’ school, point to the
disturbing potential that lies ahead, as certain inflexible and
extremist ideologies ostensibly derived from Islamic tenets gain ground
in state and society.

The implications of the Egypt elections will be particularly significant
for west, central and southern Asia with its large Islamic demography,
given the traditional leadership role that has been accorded to Cairo
for the interface between religion and politics.

Chicago is relevant for the manner in which the U.S. and its
allies-cum-partners -- a total of 50 nations -- reiterated their support
to efforts to enable the Afghan people to re-build their future. While
the U.S. and other International Security Assistance Force (ISAF)
nations are committed to cessation of an operational role for their
troops from 2014 (the new French President Francois Hollande has paid a
surprise visit to Kabul and announced the withdrawal of his military by
end 2012 ), there was a formal pledge of support till 2024 as the
Afghan state acquires appropriate capacity to manage its own affairs.
This will be a daunting task given the enormity of the challenges that
lie ahead -- political, economic, fiscal and security-related -- but
President Obama asserted that this time around, Afghanistan will not be
abandoned by the international community.

However, the Chicago summit was also marked by the slightly cold
reception given to Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari. Pakistan has a
critical and distinctive roe to play in the future of Afghanistan and
the last time the global community abandoned that nation, the Pakistani
military in Rawalpindi ensured the Taliban takeover of Kabul. But after
the Osama bin Laden led 9/11 attack, Pakistan, under General Pervez
Musharraf, became a front-line state (again) in the U.S.-led war against
terror and even Kabul acknowledges the critical role that Rawalpindi
can play – for good or bad – in the future evolution of Afghanistan.
Pakistan’s ability to leverage events in Afghanistan is currently on
display in the manner in which the U.S. and ISAF troops are vulnerable
to the re-opening of the Karachi-Kabul logistic supply routes and
Rawalpindi’s refusal to do so after the drone attacks of November last
that accidentally killed Pakistani troops.

Thus it was instructive that President Obama did not specifically
mention Pakistan during his remarks at Chicago and the tension between
the Pakistan military and the U.S. continues. Ever since the Abbotabad
operation that eliminated bin Laden in May 2011, the Pakistan military
has lost institutional credibility both within the country and with
external interlocutors. The Pakistan military, with its Musharraf-Kayani
refined strategy of hunting with the U.S. hounds and running with the
“jihadi” hare, has defied both domestic and global pressure to come
clean on this issue. Paradoxically, as if to prove a point and
cock-a-snook at the U.S., just a day after the Chicago summit, the
Pakistani state sentenced to 33 years of imprisonment the doctor who had
provided the vital information about bin Laden’s whereabouts.

Public opinion within Pakistan is dismayed and as the Daily Times noted
in an editorial comment: “Being a coalition partner in the war on
terror, it was one of the responsibilities of Pakistan under
international law and the UNSC’s mandate to find bin Laden. However,
instead of feeling pleased that one of its citizens has helped reach the
target, it has been treating Dr. (Shakeel) Afridi’s effort as
treasonous. This is not only appalling but also unjustified. It
reinforces the suspicion that OBL’s presence in Abbottabad was not a
secret for the Pakistani intelligence agencies.”

This remains the critical conundrum – when and how will the Pakistan
military GHQ in Rawalpindi take the corporate decision to sever its
links to terror groups? This is as significant for Kabul, as it is for
Delhi, whether it is the Haqqani or the LeT. Here President Zardari is a
mere spectator and it is General Kayani who is in the drivers’s seat
about the future orientation of Kabul.

The post-Chicago fallout was even more deplorable and daunting for the
international community led by the US. On Wednesday (May 23) more than
120 Afghan girls in a school were exposed to poisonous substances that
were sprayed in the Bibi Haji school in the Takhar province of
Afghanistan. Taliban insurgents are deemed to be responsible for this
attack on girls as young as 10 years old. As per Taliban writ, schools
for girls are forbidden.

The contestation between the Taliban ideology that allows attacks of
this nature in the name of religion and the forces of progress and
tolerance as represented by President Karzai will be played out over the
next few years -- and Pakistan can tilt the scales in a definitive
manner. Will the deep-state in Pakistan, with its nuclear arsenal,
support the ideologies and fervour that led to the assassination of
Punjab Governor Salman Taseer in January 2011 -- and by extension the
same elements in Afghanistan -- or support the more tolerant and
inclusive socio-political arrangement that is equitable and sustainable?

This is where current developments in Egypt and the final political
outcome in Cairo acquire relevance for the Muslim-inhabited belt of
Asia. Preliminary results from the historic post-Tahir square Egyptian
election point to a tense stand-off between Mohammed Mursi of Egypt’s
Muslim Brotherhood and Ahmed Shafiq, ousted President Hosni Mubarak’s
last Prime Minister. Will the Islamic spectrum of Egyptian politics be
able to realise the socio-economic aspirations of its citizens -- or
will they revert to a more inflexible Taliban-like orientation if they
come to power? These are complex questions but the non-linear linkages
from Chicago to Cairo will impact the extended swathe from Karachi to
Kabul over the next few years as the region oscillates between today’s
turbulence and the elusive tranquility of tomorrow.