NOUS41 KWBC 121435
PNSWSH
TECHNICAL IMPLEMENTATION NOTICE 08-91 AMENDED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS WASHINGTON DC
935 AM EST FRI DEC 12 2008
TO: SUBSCRIBERS:
-FAMILY OF SERVICES
-NOAA WEATHER WIRE SERVICE
-EMERGENCY MANAGERS WEATHER INFORMATION NETWORK
-NOAAPORT
OTHER NWS PARTNERS...USERS AND EMPLOYEES
FROM: JASON TUELL
CHIEF...SCIENCE PLANS BRANCH
OFFICE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
SUBJECT: AMENDED TO CHANGE DATE: UPGRADE TO SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE
MODELING SYSTEM: EFFECTIVE JULY 6 2009
REFER TO: TECHNICAL IMPLEMENTATION NOTICE /TIN/ 08-91 TRANSMITTED
ON NOVEMBER 6 2008
AMENDED TO POSTPONE THE EFFECTIVE DATE FROM DECEMBER 9 2008 TO
JULY 6 2009 DUE TO SCRIPT INSTABILITIES THAT DEVELOPED IN THE
PARALLEL VERSION OF THE SREF. THERE WAS NOT ENOUGH TIME FOR AN
ABBREVIATED TEST AND EVALUATION PERIOD BEFORE THE START OF THE
NCEP MORATORIUM.
EFFECTIVE TUESDAY JULY 6 2009...AT 1500 COORDINATED UNIVERSAL
TIME /UTC/...THE NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION
/NCEP/ WILL UPGRADE THE SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLE MODELING SYSTEM
/SREF/.
MODELING SYSTEM CHANGES INCLUDE:
-THREE OF THE FOUR MODELS USED IN THE SREF /NMM...ARW AND RSM/
WILL BE UPGRADED IN MODEL VERSION /WRF FROM V2.0 TO V2.2...RSM
FROM V2003 TO V2008/ AND INCREASED FROM 40/45KM TO 32KM IN
HORIZONTAL RESOLUTION. THE APPLICATION OF THE PROCEDURE IMPROVES
SIGNIFICANTLY THE PERFORMANCE OF EACH INDIVIDUAL MEMBER SUCH AS
THE REDUCTION OF STRONG COLD BIAS FOR LOWER-LEVEL TEMPERATURE IN
NMM MEMBERS AND MORE DETAILED SPATIAL STRUCTURE. AS A RESULT OF
THIS...BETTER BEHAVED PROBABILITIES ARE ALSO ACHIEVED BY
INCREASING FORECAST SHARPNESS.
-INCREASE OF WRF MEMBERSHIP /NMM FROM 3 TO 5...ARW FROM 3 TO 5/
AND REDUCTION OF ETA MEMBERSHIP /FROM 10 TO 6...MEMBERS
N3...N4...P3 AND P4 ARE REMOVED/
-MORE PHYSICS DIVERSITY BY SWITCHING FROM ZHOU CLOUD SCHEME TO
FERRIER CLOUD SCHEME IN THREE OUT OF FIVE RSM MEMBERS.
-FORECAST OUTPUT /GRIB/ FREQUENCY WILL INCREASE FROM 3-HOURLY TO
HOURLY FOR THE FIRST 39 HOURS.
-FOUR NEW AVIATION PRODUCTS WILL BE ADDED TO ENSEMBLE PRODUCTS
/MEAN AND PROBABILITY/:
-ICING
-CLEAR AIR TURBULENCE
-LOW LEVEL CEILING
-FLIGHT RESTRICTION
-INDIVIDUAL SREF MEMBERS BUFR OUTPUT WILL BE BROKEN OUT INTO
INDIVIDUAL STATIONS.
PARALLEL DATA SETS FOR THE CURRENT PRODUCTS AND UPGRADED PRODUCTS
ARE AVAILABLE ON THE NCEP FTP SERVER AT THE LINK BELOW. NCEP
ENCOURAGES ALL USERS TO EVALUATE THESE DATA SETS TO ENSURE THAT
THEIR SYSTEMS ARE PREPARED FOR THE UPCOMING CHANGE. /USE
LOWERCASE/
FTP://FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/SREF/PARA/SREF.YYYYM
MDD/HH
THE ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING CENTER /EMC/ HAS A PUBLICLY AVAILABLE
WEB SITE WHICH CAN PROVIDE USERS MORE INFORMATION CONCERNING THE
SREF MODELING SYSTEM AS WELL AS ALL OTHER NCEP MODELING SYSTEMS
/PLEASE USE LOWERCASE/:
HTTP://WWW.EMC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
DATA DELIVERY TIMING/VOLUME/CONTENT CHANGES:
NOAAPORT DATA:
-AT THE CURRENT TIME...THE FOLLOWING DOMAINS ARE DISSEMINATED TO
NOAAPORT/AWIPS USERS: CONUS...ALASKA...EASTERN PACIFIC.
-NO DATA CONTENT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED.
-NO CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE CONTENT DELIVERY TIME.
-NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN DATA VOLUMES ARE EXPECTED.
-NO CHANGE IN PDS CONTENT IS EXPECTED.
NWS FTP SERVER /USE LOWERCASE LETTERS EXCEPT FOR THE SL...ST...MT
AND CY. THE HH REFERS TO THE CYCLE: 03...09...15...21. THE
YYYYMMDD REFERS TO THE CURRENT DATE/:
FTP://TGFTP.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SL.US008001/ST.OPNL/MT.SREF_CY.YY/RD.YYY
YMMDD
-THE CONUS DOMAIN IS CURRENTLY DISSEMINATED.
-NO DATA CONTENT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED.
-NO CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE CONTENT DELIVERY TIME.
-NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN DATA VOLUMES ARE EXPECTED.
-NO CHANGE IN PDS CONTENT IS EXPECTED.
NCEP FTP SERVER: /USE LOWERCASE LETTERS/
-AT THE CURRENT TIME...THE FOLLOWING DOMAINS ARE DISSEMINATED:
FTP://FTPPRD.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PUB/DATA/NCCF/COM/SREF/PROD
NCEP FTP SERVER USERS: CONUS...ALASKA...EASTERN PACIFIC AND NWS
FTP SERVERS USERS: CONUS
-NO CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE CONTENT DELIVERY TIME.
-NO CHANGE IN PDS CONTENT IS EXPECTED FOR THE CURRENT DATA SETS
WHICH ARE DELIVERED.
-NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN DATA VOLUMES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE DATA
SETS CURRENTLY DELIVERED.
-NO DIRECTORY STRUCTURE CHANGE IS EXPECTED.
-MEMBERSHIP CHANGE IS EXPECTED: ETA'S N3...P3...N4...P4 FOUR
MEMBERS WILL BE GONE...NMM N2...P2 AND EM N2...P2 FOUR MEMBERS
WILL BE ADDED.
NCEP ENCOURAGES USERS TO ENSURE THEIR DECODERS ARE FLEXIBLE AND
ARE ABLE TO ADEQUATELY HANDLE CHANGES IN CONTENT ORDER
...PARAMETER FIELDS CHANGING ORDER...CHANGES IN THE SCALING
FACTOR COMPONENT WITHIN THE PDS OF THE GRIB FILES AND ANY VOLUME
CHANGES THAT MAY BE FORTHCOMING. THESE ELEMENTS MAY CHANGE WITH
FUTURE NCEP MODEL IMPLEMENTATIONS. NCEP WILL MAKE EVERY ATTEMPT
TO ALERT USERS TO THESE CHANGES BEFORE IMPLEMENTATION.
FOR QUESTIONS REGARDING THE SCIENTIFIC CONTENT OF THE MODELING
SYSTEM...PLEASE CONTACT:
GEOFF DIMEGO
NCEP/EMC
CAMP SPRINGS MD 20746
301-763-8000X7221
GEOFF.DIMEGO@NOAA.GOV
FOR QUESTIONS REGARDING THE DATAFLOW ASPECTS OF THESE DATA SETS...
PLEASE CONTACT THE NCEP/NCO/PMB DATAFLOW HELP DESK EMAIL ADDRESS
BELOW /USE LOWERCASE/:
EMAIL: NCEP.PMB.DATAFLOW@NOAA.GOV
NATIONAL TECHNICAL IMPLEMENTATION NOTICES ARE ONLINE AT
/USE LOWERCASE/:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OS/NOTIF.HTM
$$
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