OVER-THE-RHINE — The mild winter might be masking colder times ahead for the region’s homeless.

Greater-than-expected demand at Cincinnati’s new winter shelter is the first sign of an anticipated surge in homelessness in 2012.

In its first five weeks of operation – Dec. 5 through Jan. 12 – the winter shelter at Prince of Peace Lutheran Church in Over-the-Rhine took in 520 individuals, including five families. Overflow from the church find shelter at the nearby Drop Inn Center.

“We’re surprised at how high the number of individuals is,” said Arlene Nolan, executive director of the Drop Inn Center, part of the coalition that organized the new winter shelter. She and others involved blame the sluggish economy and credit the shelter’s consistent hours for its heavy use. The city’s previous cold shelter, at the Over-the-Rhine Community Center, opened only when the temperature and/or wind chill reached single digits.

Demand for homeless shelter beds is up across the region from last year. In Covington, the Emergency Shelter of Northern Kentucky has cared for 200 individuals since it opened Oct. 16 and will exceed last year’s total of 267 before it closes for the season March 31, said manager Rachael Winters. At the James Sauls Homeless Shelter in Batavia, 452 people received beds and 693 were turned away this past year. The number of children served in the 37-bed shelter went up from 74 in 2010 to 102 in 2011.

“People are staying the full 45 days,” said director LeAnn Townes. “It’s always worse in the winter because people can’t sleep outside in tents.”

Homelessness is expected to worsen before it gets better: Though the unemployment rate fell to 8.5 percent in December, millions remain out of work and millions more are underemployed and living on the edge of homelessness.

In addition, a three-year, $3.6 million homelessness-prevention program paid for by federal stimulus money will end in July in Hamilton County. It has provided rent and utility assistance to thousands of households since August 2009. In 2011, 971 households – 2,624 individuals – received the stimulus money as clients of seven social service agencies, including St. Vincent de Paul and the Salvation Army, said Kevin Finn, executive director of the nonprofit Strategies to End Homelessness. To date, 97 percent of Hamilton County households receiving that federal prevention money in the past three years avoided homeless shelters.

“That resource is one of the main reasons why homelessness declined from 2009 to 2010. It preserved housing for those most at risk of becoming homeless,” Finn said.

“But with it going away, we could see a big spike in homelessness in the second half of 2012.”

The stimulus-funded program will be partially replaced by a permanent federal allocation of $340,000 for homeless prevention programs in Cincinnati and Hamilton County, said Finn, whose organization is seeking additional sources of money from foundations and other potential donors to attempt to close the funding gap.

City expected to spend $10 million on plan to decentralize shelters

Yet Cincinnati is on the verge of spending big money on homelessness. As early as February, City Council is expected to approve a $10 million investment in a $27.6 million plan to decentralize existing homeless shelters from the Washington Park area of Over-the-Rhine.

Supporters say it will improve living conditions and services for the homeless and spur market-rate development in Cincinnati’s most architecturally unique urban neighborhood. Public-private developer Cincinnati Center Development Corp. (3CDC) introduced the plan in 2011.

Though some homeless advocates say the plan is misguided, City Manager Milton Dohoney has recommended it to council and Mayor Mark Mallory, writing in a memo that the plan “will relocate, construct and fund” four homeless shelters. Finn said the new shelters will “benefit homeless people in our community for generations. … Current facilities lack space to provide day services and case management, which would assist people out of homelessness quickly.”

The new shelters would be large enough to accommodate increased demand of single people during the winter and families during the summer. That flexibility would eliminate need for a winter shelter, he said.

Public funding and construction of the new shelters are inevitable – given the broad support of the plan in City Hall and among Cincinnati’s business elite; 3CDC’s powerful board includes Enquirer president and publisher Margaret E. Buchanan.

Public investment should be made instead in affordable housing and job programs, say some advocates for the homeless, given the demand for services at the winter shelter and potential for increased numbers of homeless people.

“We’ve known for decades that the main cause of homelessness is the lack of affordable housing,” said Josh Spring, executive director of the Greater Cincinnati Coalition for the Homeless. “We’re not at the point where we should be investing in anything that does not show clear gains – and those things are housing and jobs.”

Neil Donovan, executive director of the National Coalition for the Homeless in Washington, agrees with Spring.

“For a community that has been doing homeless intervention and receiving so much federal money for so long, for them to have such a large gap is shameful,” said Donovan, who referred to planned shelters as “boutique housing that should not use 100 percent of funds dedicated for homelessness.”

On Dec. 14, City Council approved $20,000 for the $65,000 needed to operate the new shelter for 90 consecutive nights. The balance is from private sources, most notably Christ Church Cathedral. The Drop Inn Center provides staff.

“We don’t think the kingdom of God happens in some other dimension of time and space,” said Mike Phillips, a Christ Church lay leader. “We’re called to make it happen here and now.”

A fundraising drive called Warm Hearts is under way to pay for shelter nights into March -- right now it is scheduled to be open through Feb. 29 -- and put money away for the winter of 2012-13.

Shelter services in Over-the-Rhine include individualized case plans

On a recent night, a line formed in an alley beside Prince of Peace before the door opened at 9 p.m. No meals are served. There are no showers or storage bins. Separate men’s and women’s restrooms are available. Guests must register, but there is no requirement to participate in alcohol, drug or jobs programs. A person can come in, get a mat, sleep and leave at 7 a.m. There is no limit on the number of nights a person may stay.

Caseworkers from the Drop Inn Center are available. Of the first 520 people registered through Jan. 12, 25 asked to move into the Drop Inn and begin an individualized case plan to identify and eliminate causes of homelessness. They’re given about a week to start their program.

A dozen of the 50 people in the Prince of Peace basement on that January night agreed to talk with the Enquirer, most anonymously. Their stories provide a preview of who might be coming after them: They’ve been laid off, or they were staying with family members or friends but were told to leave. A friend kicked out a 32-year-old single mother, who arrived at the shelter at 10 p.m. with her 8-year-old son and 3-year-old daughter.

Addiction histories and felony convictions are common. More prevalent is mental illness. A young woman with schizophrenia took a mat next to a wall. She is in her third trimester and not allowed to take medication while pregnant.

About 50 green mats spread out in a grid on the tile floor. Lights go out at 11 p.m. and come on at 6 a.m. A man in a stocking cap and parka ate a pack of mini-doughnuts. Most people slept with shoes on.

Alden Wilson, 44, who grew up in Avondale, sat on the bench of a weathered baby grand piano and read from “The Ethiopian Book of Life.” A student at Brown Mackie College, he said he was homeless because of a temporary domestic dispute. He described himself as a survivor. “Being human, we are animalistic,” he said. He accesses other services for homeless people, primarily meals at Our Daily Bread in Over-the-Rhine.

That arrangement is common. In the first five weeks the winter shelter opened, 91 percent of its clients were already registered within the Homeless Management Information System, meaning they had stayed in another shelter or received meal or housing services.

“We need more time to understand why the winter shelter has reached so many people on the fringe of the system,” said Finn, of Strategies to End Homelessness.

There was one certainty about the winter shelter. “This is a reality check,” said Vivian Hickson, a Drop Inn Center employee who worked the registration table. “It’s a reality how quickly your life can change.”