Dan Hodges is a former Labour Party and GMB trade union official, and has managed numerous independent political campaigns. He writes about Labour with tribal loyalty and without reservation. You can read Dan's recent work here

Nigel Farage's 'victory' in the debate was tactical, not strategic: it could help Cameron in the long run

So now what? Yesterday was the day of the Great Debate. And today is the day of the… well, it’s not entirely clear.

Reading the coverage this morning – it must be said, rather less coverage than the hype promised – I’m reminded of the morning after the first Obama v Romney debate. That was billed as a game changer. Victory was suddenly in Romney's grasp.

In reality, it had changed nothing. And I suspect when we look back at Farage v Clegg in a few months' time we’ll realise that, in truth, nothing much really changed last night either.

This morning both men and their camps will be feeling pleased with themselves. Nigel Farage will be basking in the glow of the instant polls that showed him the clear victor – though, as I pointed out last night, the polls are wrong.

And he certainly has reason to be happy. Or more accurately, relieved. Had he been officially bested by Clegg it would have been a disaster. Ukip’s supporters, a volatile bunch at the best of times, would have gone berserk. The internal tensions simmering away within his party would have burst to the surface. In all probability he would never have recovered.

As it is his position, internally, has been enhanced. His credentials as the joker in the British political are secure. And the Ukip bandwagon – a bandwagon that has been looking decidedly shaky over recent weeks – will now roll safely on to the European elections.

But he has also missed an opportunity. Last night was his chance to reach beyond his base, and redefine his image as the nation’s most famous and articulate pub bore. He conspicuously failed to grasp it. As the debate wore on, he clung more tightly to his own caricature. And like Mitt Romney, his success was a tactical but not a strategic one.

Nick Clegg, meanwhile, is basking in the glow of defeat. He will have been disappointed that the post debate poll margins were so wide. He may also regret the fact that as his opponent visibly weakened in the second half of the contest, he was unable to land a knockout blow.

But victory on the night was not the Deputy Prime Minister’s objective. His goal was to insert himself into the heart of a European election campaign that threatened to squeeze him and his party to the margins. It was also to present himself as the unashamed champion of the pro-European cause, a cause whose disciples number more than the eight per cent of the electorate currently planning to vote Lib Dem. And on both counts he succeeded.

So what are the implications to the two heavyweights who ducked the challenge? For Ed Miliband there was an upside and a downside. Lost amidst all the post debate analysis was the publication of the latest YouGov poll, which showed Labour’s lead has again shrunk to a meagre two points. One shadow cabinet minister told me earlier in the week it was now just a matter of days before the Tories edged into the lead.

Last night should see an uptick in Ukip’s support, which in turn should come at the expense of the Conservative party. This should give Miliband some badly needed – if temporary – respite.

The downside is that the debate again exposed the political stupidity of Miliband’s decision to rule out a European referendum. Nigel Farage’s strongest moment in the whole debate was his response to the very first question, about why the British people weren’t being allowed a say on this important issue. Nick Clegg didn’t have a coherent answer. And come the election, neither will Ed Miliband. As a result I expect we will see the Labour leader and his colleagues “clarifying” their stance over the next few weeks.

It was also a mixed night for David Cameron. Anything that is good for Nigel Farage and Ukip is bad for the Prime Minister and the Conservative party.

Because of that there is thinly disguised frustration within Downing Street at Nick Clegg’s decision to build Farage such a prominent platform (though some of Cameron’s more fair-minded strategists do have the good grace to concede it was clever politics from a Lib Dem perspective).

There will also have been anger and alarm at the site of prominent Tory Eurosceptics such as John Redwood roaming the post-debate spin room, banging the drum for the Ukip leader.

But there is one upside for the Conservative party, and it’s a significant one. Over the past few weeks Ukip’s national poll rating has been sliding. One opinion poll showed Farage’s party coming third, behind both Labour and the Tories.

Last night has changed all that. Ukip are once again favorites to top the poll. The expectation – and pressure – have once again shifted back onto Nigel Farage. A good Ukip result is once again priced in. That in turn makes the Prime Minister’s post-Euro damage limitation exercise that much easier.

When Mitt Romney “won” his debate against Obama many people said a “reset button” had been pressed. It hadn’t. Last night was an enjoyable spectacle. But the dynamics of British politics remain essentially as they were.