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Soccer Picks: Villarreal vs. Malaga La Liga Tips & Odds

La Liga week 15 kicks off on Friday with two clashes, one of which features fourth-placed Villarreal playing host to Malaga. With odds in full swing, here’s a breakdown of this clash and choice free picks to consider.

Betting
on the winner

Villarreal and Malaga clash in Spain’s
Primera Division, in what sportsbooks
are slating as a rather lopsided affair. The hosts are listed as the hot
favourites at -188 while the visitors are tipped at staggering +500 soccer odds to mastermind the upset.
The draw ringing in at a large +300 completes the overwhelming one-sided
outlook before us. So the obvious question that begs an answer: do the bookies have it right or can Malaga
turn the odds in their favour?

Villarreal are currently in fourth place in
the league, courtesy of an 8-3-3 record and 27 points. Despite their lofty
standing they are well behind the leading triplet in Spain – 13 points behind
pace-setting Barcelona (on 40 points) and 7 points adrift of Real Madrid in
third place.

Nonetheless they’ve sunk their teeth into
fourth place, reluctant to let it go after three straight games unbeaten
including the 3-0 win over Levante in the last turn around the league that
maintained their one-point edge over Athletic Club.

In four of their last five games, they scored
at least once and twice they kept a clean sheet. And lest you be thinking
they’ve had an easy schedule of it, they haven’t. On the contrary, they’ve come
up against some decent middleweights in Valencia, Levante and Elche as well as
credible title threat in Atletico Madrid – a side they managed to hold to a 1-1
draw in fact.

Given what we’ve seen from Villarreal over
the course of the early season there is no question about their value or meriting
favourable odds against Malaga. They
are one of the best teams in La Liga right now, if not exactly at the level of
the elite trio of Barcelona, Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid, they are
certainly a cut above Malaga. And surely they’ll show their worth and fortitude
when they take on Malaga on Friday.

Malaga by contrast have stuttered out of
the gates. Somewhat surprisingly so as their last two seasons in La Liga saw
them finish a commendable fourth (2011-12) and sixth (2012-13). How quickly things can deteriorate.

Currently they are 14th in the
table following a 3-4-7 mark in 14 laps, a run of form that includes
back-to-back defeats to Granada and Athletic Club in the last two rounds. Making
matters worse is the fact that they can’t seem to buy a road win no matter how
hard they try – they are winless on the road so far this season (0-4-3) and
their last five road games amount to: LDLDD. The poor reading doesn’t stop
there however as three of the five saw them come and go with nary a whisper of
a goal.

Soccer Betting Verdict: Betting on the
winner in this clash is as straightforward as it can get in sports betting, at
least in our opinion. It’s obvious that Villarreal with home ground advantage
will be tough to beat. Moreover, they have the on paper edge in every aspect of
the game. So we are recommending Villarreal at -188 as the value soccer pick.

Of course, Villarreal cannot take anything
for granted, not the least Malaga’s poor form. Malaga’s life in top-flight is
at risk as they hover just above the danger zone, too close for comfort some
might say. The desperation for points and determination to seek redemption
after back-to-back defeats in theory could prove a catalyst towards better
results. However that notion is based on too much supposition and not enough
facts. The most pertinent of those are: Malaga have yet to win on the road this
season. It’s hard to imagine they would at the expense of Villarreal and
bookmakers long odds of +500 to win outright.

So to recap, we’re plumping down to a
Villarreal win and favouring the Over 2.5 at -125 given Malaga’s shortfalls on
defence. For our value soccer pick
we recommend Villarreal to win both halves, which is trading at a tempting +120
at Bet365.