Hurricane Forecasters
Try Model That Focuses
On Chances of Landfall

Forecasting the future is tough enough. But when it comes to hurricanes, "predicting" the past is no cakewalk either.

To predict the coming hurricane season, scientists look at climate factors in late summer that are linked to hurricane activity. Then they see how well they can predict those factors -- ocean temperatures and currents, El Ni&ntilde;o conditions, wind patterns -- and thus the number and intensity of coming storms. Next, they test this model, plugging in the numbers from a particular year in the...