More Thoughts on Morsi and Travel to Egypt

It’s still way too early to predict the outcome of Egypt’s election of its first Islamic president, Mohammed Morsi. But if you’re thinking about visiting Egypt, here are a few points to keep in mind.

It’s still way, way too early to predict the outcome of Egypt’s election of its first Islamic president, Mohammed Morsi. He has yet to name a cabinet, let alone prove that his pledge to build a stable, pluralistic society is more than a campaign tactic and short-term strategy to keep the army off his back.

Street protests will remain an option for both Morsi’s supporters (51.7 percent of the vote) and his opponents in debating the big issues, particularly the writing of a post-revolution constitution and ensuring that the generals who have been ruling Egypt since the ousting of former president Hosni Mubarak hand real power to a civilian government. Since the revolution began on January 25, 2011, many people have felt empowered to voice their frustrations and agendas through protest. On Facebook, more than 2,000 secular Egyptians have indicated they will join a demonstration this Thursday to protect their right…to drink beer.

Unless you’re a heat-seeking lizard, avoid traveling between now and the middle of September. This has nothing to do with political events (or the Ramadan holiday, July 19 through August 18), but with the fact that the weather is just too hot to enjoy walking around antiquities sites or sitting on a beach. If you’re interested in art exhibits, concerts, and cultural life, the more interesting events happen during the school year. For photography, the best weather is mid-January through February, after the fall rice harvest, when the burning of stalks clouds Nile delta skies with pollution, and before the start of the spring sandstorm season.

One of President Morsi’s aims is to encourage 20 million tourists to visit Egypt in 2014 (up from a high of 14.7 million in 2010). To build numbers, the government has already eased visa restrictions on travelers from China, India, and Russia, as well as Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey, Kazakhstan, and Azerbaijan. If you want to see Pharaonic monuments without the crowds, think sooner rather than later.

Because of the pre-election turmoil and ongoing uncertainty about whether an Islamist president will eventually ban things like alcohol (see my post from yesterday for more on that), hotel and cruise ship occupancy remains low, so tour operators continue offering discounts. Destination & Adventure International, an Egypt specialist from our thoroughly vetted Top Travel Specialists Collection, has a six-night New Egypt package available through the middle of December. For $995 you get three nights at the five-star Fairmont Hotel Nile City, a full board, guided three-night Nile cruise on a five-star vessel, and a guided day tour of Cairo. Operators hope political calm and a busy Christmas holiday will kick-start the traditional winter high season. If tourists come back, you won’t see prices like these again.

To be truthful on the "Is Egypt safe?" question, I'm going to have to mention the sexual assaults that have occurred at night during demonstrations in Tahrir Square (CBS correspondent Lara Logan has not been the only victim), the kidnappings of foreign tourists in the Sinai (so far brief incidents with benign outcomes), and the fact that foreigners may be told to “fuck off,” in English, as I have been by disaffected youths on the streets of downtown Cairo. These things are disgusting to various degrees, but so far they remain isolated incidents. More than a change in safety, I’d say there has been a change in tone related to the law-and-order vacuum that persisted after Mubarak’s fall, post-revolution army propaganda that painted foreigners as spies, and residual anger and longing for power from people who have felt ignored by their own government and abused by its police force. An obvious litmus for the Morsi government will be how quickly officials move to reform the police (they're seen as Mubarak’s henchmen) and restore a sense of dignity, accountability, and public security. I have never experienced personal crime in more than a decade of life in Egypt; I still take taxis at night alone and ride the Cairo Metro, but I stay aware of my surroundings, just as I would in any large city.

Finally, to sit on the terrace of the Old Cataract Hotel in Aswan watching the sun set over the Nile or have Kom Ombo temple or the Sphinx to yourself while the tourists stay away is glorious! My advice is to keep an eye news coming out of Egypt and think about dipping your toes into the tourist waters in the fall, when temperatures cool down and before a potential tourist comeback.