DFS PGA Championship Preview

If you need PGA DFS to help you kill the time leading up to the GOT finale, you’re in luck! As always, my goal each week is to offer targets in each price range, identifying two to three low-cost/reasonable floor targets as core pieces for all my lineups.

In DFS golf, it’s all about getting your guys to the weekend, first and foremost. Generally, I will fill out my roster with guys in the $7,100-$9,000 range. The factors I consider are event history, course layout versus player strengths, recent form, and prime bounce back candidates who are playing well, but happened to miss the cut the prior week.

One factor does not necessarily outweigh another. And, like any good speculative decision-making process, instincts always play a role. Of course there’s my personal favorite factor–as is the same with other fringe DFS sports–the DK pricing model has no clue what the fuck it is doing!

All that in mind, let’s take a look at the PGA Championship (PGAC) information to clarify some unique characteristics that you may want to consider before lineups lock.

Event Information

Course: Bethpage (Black Course) Farmingdale, NY Par 70 Yardage 7,459

We will never know if the PGA’s decision to move up their major championship into May was to align the first two majors with the GOT premiere and finale, but we can all agree it’s improved the quality of life for all of humanity. After the GAME 7/DANY IS A HEADCASE Sunday, we get major golf paired with the end of a cultural influencing show that makes Sur Gregor Clegane seem small.

But before the sun goes down this Sunday, and we say goodbye to some of our best television friends from the last decade, the Wanamaker Trophy will be hoisted in Long Island at Bethpage (BP) State Park. The same venue played host to the U.S. Open is 2002 and 2009, so some veterans will have familiarity with the course. However, modifications since then and the inevitable “majoring” up of 2019’s version would not have me putting much weight into anyone’s past performance here.

What we do know is that, just like Theon Greyjoy’s seasons four through eight, BP will play long and hard. Here is a hole-by-hole layout, with average yardages on each type:

Hole

Par

Yards

1

4

430

2

4

389

3

3

230

4

5

517

5

4

478

6

4

408

7

4

524

8

3

210

9

4

460

10

4

502

11

4

435

12

4

515

13

5

608

14

3

161

15

4

484

16

4

490

17

3

207

18

4

411

Par 4s

12

461

Par 3s

4

202

Par 5s

2

563

Keys to Success

My top two stats to weigh this week in order are:

Strokes-gained: Tee to green (SG:T-G)

Driving Distance (DD)

Bombers will no doubt be at an advantage this week. However, more than just power, the combination of precision and patience will be the key to teeing off late Sunday.

Not only is the course long, but it’s littered with trouble off the fairways. Bunkers and heavy tricked out rough will not allow players, even bombers, to spray drives all over the place, and score with short wedge play.

That’s why SG:T-G is the best metric to target this week. Guys who take BP’s medicine, and scramble errant tee shots with pars in mind, are going to be better off in the 101st PGA Championship.

To help sift through the field regarding just the key stats I put the table below together using all data from the official PGA Tour website. It is listed in order of each players’ composite ranking, averaging each players’ ranking in the two key stats for this week. Sort as you wish:

Name

Salary

SG: T-G

DD

Composite Rank

Rory McIlroy

10900

1

3

2

Byeong Hun An

7100

5

13

9

Hideki Matsuyama

8500

3

17

10

Gary Woodland

7700

12

9

10.5

Patrick Cantlay

8200

10

15

12.5

Luke List

6800

21

4

12.5

Bubba Watson

8000

24

7

15.5

Dustin Johnson

11100

7

26

16.5

Jon Rahm

9500

13

23

18

Jhonattan Vegas

7100

21

20

20.5

Justin Thomas

10100

2

42

22

Justin Rose

9900

20

24

22

Jason Kokrak

7600

17

32

24.5

Xander Schauffele

9100

19

33

26

Sergio Garcia

7900

14

38

26

Tommy Fleetwood

9200

4

51

27.5

Tiger Woods

11300

8

54

31

Tony Finau

8800

56

6

31

Brooks Koepka

10400

50

14

32

Keith Mitchell

7300

25

40

32.5

Jason Day

9000

31

35

33

Bryson DeChambeau

8900

28

44

36

Paul Casey

8300

9

66

37.5

Rickie Fowler

9300

45

31

38

Phil Mickelson

8000

54

25

39.5

Keegan Bradley

7200

15

64

39.5

Matt Wallace

6700

42

37

39.5

Kevin Tway

6800

62

22

42

Adam Scott

8100

40

45

42.5

Charles Howell III

7000

37

51

44

Aaron Wise

7100

68

29

48.5

Emiliano Grillo

7100

30

67

48.5

Corey Conners

6800

6

93

49.5

Harold Varner III

6300

59

41

50

J.B. Holmes

6600

69

34

51.5

Lucas Glover

7300

16

88

52

Louis Oosthuizen

7800

52

59

55.5

Sungjae Im

7400

23

91

57

Cameron Champ

6900

124

1

62.5

Marc Leishman

7800

48

78

63

Haotong Li

7500

100

26

63

Abraham Ancer

6600

58

73

65.5

Matt Kuchar

8700

11

124

67.5

Dylan Frittelli

6300

46

90

68

Tyrrell Hatton

7400

78

61

69.5

Max Homa

6900

96

46

71

Troy Merritt

6200

57

87

72

Ian Poulter

7600

35

110

72.5

Branden Grace

7400

87

62

74.5

Russell Knox

6700

33

118

75.5

Henrik Stenson

7900

34

120

77

Danny Lee

6300

106

48

77

Ryan Palmer

7200

82

73

77.5

Cameron Smith

7500

73

83

78

Patrick Reed

8400

91

71

81

Si Woo Kim

7200

61

101

81

Chesson Hadley

6500

93

71

82

Jimmy Walker

6500

112

57

84.5

Rafa Cabrera Bello

7300

43

135

89

Sam Ryder

6100

89

91

90

Joel Dahmen

7300

67

115

91

Sam Burns

6800

161

21

91

Webb Simpson

7600

18

168

93

Matthew Fitzpatrick

7100

27

159

93

Charley Hoffman

7100

79

108

93.5

Lucas Bjerregaard

7000

181

12

96.5

Martin Trainer

6400

166

29

97.5

Daniel Berger

6900

122

78

100

Kevin Na

6900

83

118

100.5

Alex Noren

7200

159

49

104

Zach Johnson

7200

39

173

106

Scott Piercy

6500

64

154

109

Adam Long

6200

109

109

109

Chez Reavie

6600

55

168

111.5

Francesco Molinari

9700

94

134

114

Kevin Kisner

7700

66

163

114.5

Kiradech Aphibarnrat

6500

162

67

114.5

Danny Willett

6700

98

133

115.5

Adam Hadwin

6500

119

115

117

Jason Dufner

6700

77

159

118

Jim Furyk

7000

26

211

118.5

Martin Kaymer

6900

113

125

119

Michael Thompson

6500

71

175

123

Brandt Snedeker

7500

86

162

124

J.J. Spaun

6400

115

135

125

Davis Love III

6200

104

148

126

Beau Hossler

6600

188

73

130.5

Jordan Spieth

8600

180

84

132

Kyle Stanley

6800

140

131

135.5

Patton Kizzire

6200

172

100

136

Billy Horschel

7400

134

143

138.5

Justin Harding

7000

212

77

144.5

C.T. Pan

6700

120

178

149

Stewart Cink

6600

185

117

151

Graeme McDowell

7000

137

173

155

Eddie Pepperell

6900

138

176

157

Ryan Armour

6100

110

204

157

Pat Perez

7000

139

179

159

Charl Schwartzel

6900

204

120

162

Brian Harman

6700

145

179

162

Andrew Putnam

6800

157

198

177.5

Brian Gay

6300

175

212

193.5

Satoshi Kodaira

6100

201

193

197

Michael Kim

6100

209

209

209

Jason Caron

6400

0

0

0

Steve Stricker

6400

0

0

0

John Daly

6300

0

0

0

Rod Perry

6300

0

0

0

Shugo Imahira

6300

0

0

0

Vijay Singh

6300

0

0

0

John O'Leary

6200

0

0

0

Cory Schneider

6200

0

0

0

Craig Hocknull

6200

0

0

0

Padraig Harrington

6200

0

0

0

Brendan Jones

6200

0

0

0

Rich Beem

6100

0

0

0

Daniel Balin

6100

0

0

0

Y.E. Yang

6100

0

0

0

Rob Labritz

6100

0

0

0

Ben Cook

6100

0

0

0

Rich Berberian

6100

0

0

0

Marty Jertson

6000

0

0

0

Justin Bertsch

6000

0

0

0

Ryan Vermeer

6000

0

0

0

Stuart Deane

6000

0

0

0

Andrew Filbert

6000

0

0

0

Tyler Hall

6000

0

0

0

Shaun Micheel

6000

0

0

0

Craig Bowden

6000

0

0

0

Brian Mackey

6000

0

0

0

Casey Russell

6000

0

0

0

Alex Beach

6000

0

0

0

Jeff Schmid

6000

0

0

0

*players without data have not played enough measured rounds in PGA Tour events

There is a separate table for foreign players, with rankings coming from their performance on the European Tour website. They do not have strokes-gained data for tee-to-green so the SG total is the metric used in the table.

Name

Salary

SG: Total

DD

Composite Rank

Julian Suri

6400

8

23

15.5

Thomas Pieters

7000

24

28

26

Ryan Fox

6600

55

14

34.5

Jorge Campillo

6900

11

66

38.5

Kurt Kitayama

6400

67

17

42

Ross Fisher

6500

52

37

44.5

Erik Van Rooyen

6700

43

59

51

Richard Sterne

6600

19

87

53

Shane Lowry

7200

3

128

65.5

David Lipsky

6500

22

114

68

Mike Lorenzo-Vera

6600

30

108

69

Tom Lewis

6700

48

92

70

Lee Westwood

6800

18

151

84.5

Lucas Herbert

6400

94

93

93.5

Mikko Korhonen

6200

31

159

95

Joost Luiten

6800

14

180

97

Jazz Janewattananond

6400

25

175

100

Brandon Stone

6300

185

32

108.5

Thorbjorn Olesen

7300

90

143

116.5

Adrian Otaegui

6400

68

167

117.5

Alexander Bjork

6500

49

215

132

Shaun Norris

6100

190

76

133

Price Range Targets

Chalky McChalkerson (Five figures to 9.1k–11 players)

Who doesn’t love themselves some Eldrick this week? Winning two in a row is probably a stretch, but I’m certainly convinced he’ll contend based on his last three major performances.

I would not be opposed to anyone in this range. However, from a pure price standpoint, Justin Rose and Tommy Fleetwood are my favorites.

Rose, out of no where, missed a cut at the Masters last month. He has not missed back to back cuts in major championships since 2010. I do not expect him to buck that trend this week.

I’ve been slurping Fleetwood since last season and see no reason to stop now. As his ranking suggests, he is one of the best tee-to-green players on tour. I think he rebounds after a so so T-36 outing at the Masters.

Sweet Spot (9k to 7.1k–45 players)

With a loaded field, pricing becomes extremely soft on DK. Filling out lineups with as many players in this range will be my general approach this week.

Patrick Cantlay is my number one target based on his price/floor/upside combination. He’s been quietly ascending as one of the game’s top players the last 18 months.

Patrick Cantlay (Source: Andrew Redington/Getty Images North America)

Similar to Fleetwood, his all around tee-to-green play is the reason for his success. He is coming off his best career major performance with a T-9 at Augusta.

Other favorites in this range are Matt Kuchar, Adam Scott, Byeong Hun An, and Hideki Matsuyama.

Sneaky Low % Owned (7k and below–about ~99 players)

This range is where all the GPP difference in the world can be made if you’re willing to take some chances. And, DK pricing may not be catching up with some European tour players that do not regularly play in PGA events.

Julian Suri has been climbing the world ranks over the past year, and has the requisite power to succeed at a course like Bethpage. Last year’s PGA Champsionship was his third major appearance, and his career best performance, finishing T-19.

Suri > Alexa (Getty Images)

Other notable Europeans to not sleep on are Ryan Fox and Thomas Pieters. They would normally be in or near the chalky range in European Tour contests, and both have solid track records of making cuts in majors.

Best Bounce Back Candidates

Sergio Garcia has been scuffling lately in majors, with an MC at the Masters, after missing all four cuts last season.

His key stats are rock solid, and he’s coming off his best finish this season, with a T-4 at the Wells Fargo Championship (WFC) a couple of weeks ago so it might be the right time to invest low on Garcia. Kyle Stanley is also someone who, after struggling early this season, is trending in the right direction.

Before notching his first season top-10 at the WFC, he had his career best major finish, with a T-21 at the Masters. His stats this season don’t bear out, but he has had very strong tee-to-green metrics the last two years on tour. Along with Garcia, he is my favorite buy low candidate this week.

Best Course History Plays

Not much history so no one. And, I do not really care about anyone’s performance here from 2002 or 2009, good or bad.

Core Players

Last season, I started including my core players to build around in all my lineups. I try to identify targets before prices are released to stay focused, and avoid editing my lineup 2,000 times ten minutes before lock.

These selections are players that I believe have top-25 floors with top 10 upside, and a reasonable case to win. More detailed results are to come as the season moves along. This week’s selections:

Kuchar

Cantlay

Fleetwood

Matsuyama

Good luck at Bethpage! Don’t hesitate to reach out on twitter compliments and insults are always welcome. Also follow my new podcast!

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About Bobby Adcock

I am a pretty simple guy. Outside of my family and friends my biggest concerns are other grown men I’ve never met who play games for a living, and live interviews from the red carpet. After that a majority of my thoughts revolve around women and food. I’ve lived my whole life in Michigan which makes me subjected to decades of the Detroit Lions football. That should give you an idea of how much remains of my soul. The good news is I plan to use what’s left to provide some fake football and golf reassurance for you in a hopefully entertaining way.