Krauthammer, Barnes: McCain’s going down

posted at 12:35 pm on October 3, 2008 by Allahpundit

A progress report on where the conservative universe stands within the Kubler-Ross paradigm. The grassroots? Locked until election day in stage one. The big A? Mired perpetually in stage four (stage three isn’t available to atheists). Krauthammer and Barnes? Snug in stage five, no longer fearing the reaper. Their reasons are different — CK thinks America needs a break from drama and FB thinks it’s the economy, stupid — but the upshot is the same:

In the primary campaign, Obama was cool as in hip. Now Obama is cool as in collected. He has the discipline to let slow and steady carry him to victory. He has not at all distinguished himself in this economic crisis — nor, one might add, in any other during his national career — but detachment has served him well. He understands that this election, like the election of 1980, demands only one thing of the challenger: Make yourself acceptable. Once Ronald Reagan convinced America that he was not menacing, he won in a landslide. If Obama convinces the electorate that he is not too exotic or green or unprepared, he wins as well…

Part of reassurance is intellectual. Like Palin, he’s a rookie, but in his 19 months on the national stage he has achieved fluency in areas in which he has no experience. In the foreign policy debate with McCain, as in his July news conference with French President Nicolas Sarkozy, Obama held his own — fluid, familiar and therefore plausibly presidential.

Oliver Wendell Holmes Jr. famously said of Franklin Roosevelt that he had a “second-class intellect, but a first-class temperament.” Obama has shown that he is a man of limited experience, questionable convictions, deeply troubling associations (Jeremiah Wright, William Ayers, Tony Rezko) and an alarming lack of self-definition — do you really know who he is and what he believes? Nonetheless, he’s got both a first-class intellect and a first-class temperament. That will likely be enough to make him president.

For what it’s worth, not one but two righty bloggers have told me recently that if there’s any redeeming value to an Obama presidency, it’ll be along the temperamental lines Krauthammer suggests. As for Barnes, here’s the lay-up:

SPIEGEL ONLINE: Is there any way McCain can redeem himself?

BARNES: The bailout plan is probably going to pass on Friday. It might work for him that his imprint will be on it. But the economic crisis has probably doomed McCain’s campaign. Look at the polls: Obama is ahead now nationally and in most battleground states. It might not be fair. McCain tried to do something and now he’s getting punished for it. Obama didn’t do much. But politics is not always fair.

What about Maverick pulling a rabbit out of the hat and attacking Obama for the Democrats’ role in the Fannie/Freddie financial crisis? Ace is fantasizing but James Pethokoukis at U.S. News says it’s a pipe dream: Sources inside Team Maverick tell him that McCain has to step lightly on the CRA thanks to the left’s racial demagoguery and to the fact that it’s a complex economic issue and explaining complex economic issues isn’t his strong suit. Exit question: Er, at this point, what does McCain have to lose? How else can he make up four or five points in the national polls? Palin’s performance may help at the margin, but the CBS and CNN data wasn’t encouraging and people tend not to care too much about VP anyway. McCain’s got two debates left to diminish The One, but it’s hard to imagine what he could do or say at this point to give people a window onto Obama that they don’t already have. Presumably we’re in for a nonstop barrage of Wright/Ayers ads in the last two weeks before the election, but since he’s going to get demagogued for that anyway, why not focus on Frank, Dodd, and the CRA instead?

Update: Per Ace and Pethokoukis, Michael Barone wonders where Palin was last night on the Dems and Fannie/Freddie.

I have one major criticism of Palin’s performance. She failed to pound home one important argument that the McCain campaign has unaccountably failed to make. She did point out briefly that McCain sought in 2005 to impose tighter regulation on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and that Democrats opposed this Republican move. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac then proceeded to encourage the issuance of subprime and Alt-A mortgages, injecting toxic waste into financial institutions of all kinds. Politicians of both parties share responsibility for widening home ownership further than should have been done. But Democrats can be fairly blamed for failing to rein in Fannie and Freddie. Here the case is laid out by my American Enterprise Institute colleagues Peter Wallison and Charles Calomiris. And two British writers, former Chancellor of the Exchequer Dominic Lawson and the Times of London’s Gerard Baker, have done a better job on this issue than almost any of their American counterparts.

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Update: Per Ace and Pethokoukis, Michael Barone wonders where Palin was last night on the Dems and Fannie/Freddie

You already have your answer…

What about Maverick pulling a rabbit out of the hat and attacking Obama for the Democrats’ role in the Fannie/Freddie financial crisis? Ace is fantasizing but James Pethokoukis at U.S. News says it’s a pipe dream: Sources inside Team Maverick tell him that McCain has to step lightly on the CRA thanks to the left’s racial demagoguery

McCain and Palin’s avoidance of Freddie and Fannie is definitely a conscious effort– I don’t get it. The only thing I can come up with is McCain’s weird thing about not playing the “blame game”– or he’s afraid Obama can come back with “you took money from them, too”– but that still doesn’t explain it. What a wasted opportunity… to put a road block on the road to serfdom.

Sources inside Team Maverick tell him that McCain has to step lightly on the CRA thanks to the left’s racial demagoguery and to the fact that it’s a complex economic issue and explaining complex economic issues isn’t his strong suit.

In other words, we are screwed, no matter what, due to the cowardice of our political class on the one side and the intention to suck the US dry until our Republic crumbles on the other side. Happy days …

BTW, this is a complex issue, but the fundamental explanation is quite simple – affirmative action destroys credibility in every system it is applied to, and for good reason.

Sources inside Team Maverick tell him that McCain has to step lightly on the CRA thanks to the left’s racial demagoguery

Oh for God’s sake.

State your case and ignore the demagoguery! At worst, he’ll lose a handful of votes. Only African Americans will see this as a racial slur and they ain’t votin’ for McCain anyway. Hispanics will not see it this way.

Obama appears Presidential and Biden appears to have facts at his fingertips, so apparently they are going to win.

Obama is leading on economic issues because he is going to make everything right by giving us all money, healthcare, college, preschool, fantastic education jobs, and he’ll only tax the rich and close loopholes.
I can’t stomach it.

I’m going to keep positive right through election day. There’ll be time enough to be gloomy if Obama wins.

If McCain had any chance to win it was back when he was leading big, he should have fixed is policy so that it was actually presentable and fit the new narrative(with Palin) to appeal to a larger audience… they would have focused hard on Palin’s to present the policy pivots to placate the media and to get her off rote talking points… now his campaign is a huge mess and it’s too late… they can’t drive a narrative worth anything… they’re so many policy areas they don’t talk about because they have nothing… it’s sad…

Oh well, you win and lose some. Anyway I think Congress is much more important than the presidency. If a Obama presidency can usher in a Republican Congress, that would be fabulous. Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid stink.

Granted I have been gone from Michigan on business for almost 4 weeks, but I can’t believe Obama is going to win this state by a large margin at all. There are NO SIGNS for Obama anywhere and no bumper stickers. I was driving through Wisconsin yesterday. I say some old Kerry stickers from 04 on a car, bot NO OBAMA bumper stickers, no yard signs. I still firmly believe there is a restlessness that the polls won’t reflect. I don’t believe America is going to elect a rookie to the presidency at this time. I just don’t.

If McCain is going down, people like Krautboy and Barnes are going down with him.

Blake on October 3, 2008 at 12:40 PM

Krauthammer and Barnes are two highly regarded, smart as hell pundits that have advanced the conservative cause for years. this whole idea that ideological purity trumps common sense is disheartening.

These writings should dissappoint not because they’re “traitors” but because they’re right. And i respect krauthammer greatly for having the balls to admit that obamas temperment and intellect are an asset to the office of the presidency…policy aside.

McCain has Rick Davis around his neck, plus one of his chief policy staff guys was the head of Fannie Mae’s lobbying shop for a while. His hands are not clean enough for him to stake his campaign on this. One thing he COULD say is that if he is president there WILL be an accounting for how all this happened, and if Obama wins it will all be swept under the rug as usual.

What I don’t understand is why Richard Shelby and Wayne Allard and Jim Bunning are not coming out stronger on how the Dems under Paul Sarbanes bottled up the Fannie/Freddie legislation in 2004 and 2005 when it could hve prevented this mess.

I recently gave money to McCain’s campaign and had planned to do so again this month. However, if he’s not going to fight back and talk to the fact that the Dems , for all practical purposes, have been in the pocket of fannie/freddie through campaign contributions and an incredible amount of parties then I’m done giving.

, as if he has ANYTHING to lose…
This reeks of the caution tending to passiveness that has been the hallmark of the second Bush term. It is a formula not only for losing an election, but for losing a Presidency. If McCain can’t break away from that loser mentality, its probably best for the country that he not win. Anyone care to repeat the lose on everything experience of the Bush second term? no thanks

How is this Anti-Palin BS? Barnes was singing her praises as early as July ’07. As for Allah, he’s a pessimist by his own admission, not a liberal. I’m sure he’d love to have to eat crow on November 5th.

Oh, give it up! They are not right. And if we followed ideological purity, we would hang on our east coast elite betters every word — but we don’t. You apparently, do. But based on your comments, I always assumed you were a liberal democrat. That you think they are so smart, proves my point.

1. I believe Krauthammer wrote that column before last night’s debate, and thus in the frame of mind that she was a mistake and a drag on the campaign. In an interview after the debate, he seemed very impressed with Palin and all but confessed error.

2. If the bailout bill passes and things become more calm in the next two weeks, the mood can change.

3. Yes, McCain and Palin need to bring down the Dodd/Frank hammer. But they have to wait until TARP becomes law. Then, I hope, they cry “havoc,” as it were, and let loose the dogs of war.

Here in Long Island, I saw Kerry signs and Bump-Stix all over in 2004. It was like the plague..
Now, driving to my university, I can count MORE McCain lawn signs and bumper stix than Barack Obama ones. Its so weird..

John McCain needs to look at himself in the mirror each morning and recite the last two minutes of his ‘Stand up and fight’ speech from the Convention. Then tell anyone on his staff who isn’t on board to get the hell out of the way.

I am becoming convinced that McCain became a “Dem in sheeps clothing” long ago. I would not be surprised if he agreed to take a fall in this election in order to get a cabinet position in the Obama administration.

My Rock Band version of “Don’t Fear the Reaper” has a lot more heart than BOC’s version in this video, IMHO. ;)

I don’t fear the reaper, but, I also think that 30 days is an eternity in politics. There is time for a gaffe, time for a shocking revelation, time for people to slowly return to previous support (e.g. 2 weeks ago McCain was up, 2 weeks from now he can be up again) and it’s time enough to change a few undecided voters to vote for McCain.

Just think about it in 2004 62,040,610 people voted for George W. Bush. Now, assume that people are less enthusiastic about McCain and that only 50,000,000 are on board. If each of those people go out and convince just 1 other person to vote McCain (whether it’s someone that had decided not to vote at all or someone that was going to vote for Obama), we’ve got 100,000,000 people. Now, we might need to take a page out of the Dem’s handbook – some of those people might need to be dead, children, dead children, pets with human names and fictional characters….but, the numbers don’t lie. If we’ve got 100,000,000 McCain/Palin voters, we’re guaranteed to win!

[O.k....so I took a turn into Sarcasmville there, but, the underlying point remains. Each of us might not be able to convince 1000 people to vote for McCain, but, surely we know one person that might see reason if presented with facts or might turn out on election day if we convince them of this election's importance. That's what we need to focus on as our part of this equation.]

i dont care HOW much i agree or disagree with someones policies, if they don’t have the knowledge to publish an article in foreign affairs i dont want them as president. as it stands right now, its fairly obvious sarah palin doesn’t know enough about the big geopolitical issues to pass that test. and so i wont support the idea of putting her in a federal leadership position.

mind you, this judgement on my part has NOTHING to do with policy proposals or ideology.

Sources inside Team Maverick tell him that McCain has to step lightly on the CRA thanks to the left’s racial demagoguery

Last I looked, Dodd, Frank, Schumer, Jamie Gorelick, et al are Caucasian. If McCain can’t step up to the plate on the CRA because he is afraid of being demagoged by Rangel and Waters, then he will also be afraid to make the ear markers famous as he promised. The ball is in his court.

Good luck with that. I don’t think you and others realize how much this crap you’ve heaped on Palin has hurt the party and will continue to hurt it for a long time and way past 2012. – Blake on October 3, 2008 at 12:54 PM

We’ll be lucky if Der Ein hasn’t outlawed the Republican party by then.

So nice that Kraut & Barnes are here to scry the future. I want next week’s Powerball #s please.
Unfreakin’ believable. Whatever the outcome, we are in deep s%it bcs of Congress’ inabilty to get anything done. Remember who has the power? Especially for the last 4 yrs?
We give the presidency too much credit. They can’t screw up ANYTHING that bad by themselves.
On the bright side folks, if Obama does win, by the end of it (if not this time around) Congress will go Red again. Maybe then something can get done.
That’s assuming AlQaida doesn’t take a hold.

maybe so, but simply caving and drinking the “palin is everything we need” kool-aid does no one any good. she needs more time to study these issues. in 2012 she could be a real contender, especially i think if she incorporates some of huckabee’s campaign proposals and rhetoric…maybe even take him on the ticket.

John McCain needs to look at himself in the mirror each morning and recite the last two minutes of his ‘Stand up and fight’ speech from the Convention. Then tell anyone on his staff who isn’t on board to get the hell out of the way.

It would help if McCain stood up first.

EPIC FAIL for not slapping down that pork-laden handout to economic miscreants.

Another dismayingly tilted piece from Allahpundit: Neither pundit’s take can be summed up as “McCain’s Going Down.” That headline is rather closer to a lie than most of what people call “lies” during political season.

The Barnes interview appears to have taken place days ago, and its predictions were qualified (economic crisis “probably” dooms the campaign. Barnes’ up to the minute take, from his review of the VP debate, is as follows:

[Palin] may have passed two other tests as well. Did she once more energize the conservative base of the Republican party as she had when McCain picked her a month ago? Probably. And was her performance strong enough to change the direction of a campaign that has seen Barack Obama widening a lead over McCain in recent weeks? Maybe.

Krauthammer also qualifies his prediction when he calls an Obama victory “likely.” Despite his brilliance, Krauthammer is also given to dubious prognostications, as when he suggested at a time when crazed Obamamania was already fading that it would carrying him through to Election Day. He’s always been too easily impressed by Obama, and the assertion that Obama possesses a “first-class intellect” is at best a second-class bit of analysis.

Sorry, the pundits and the MSM (and let’s be frank, these people are part of the MSM even if they’re not liberal) have been wrong so many times I wonder why anyone trusts them.

I’m going to have faith in the American people that they aren’t so stupid as to be fooled by Obama until after Nov 4. It’s the same thing I did with the VP debate and I simply don’t understand why everyone is so quick to declare the race over. The way I see it if you’re right then you’ll just be miserable for an extra month. If you’re wrong then you’ll be miserable for a month that you didn’t have to be.

I understand having a realistic understanding of the current situation but it’s a big jump to go from “we’re behind now” to “we’re doomed”. I also see no point in giving up, what are you hoping to gain?

Don’t listen to the inside the beltway elites. This is a different election than any before:
an affirmative action Presidential candidate against a Populist Vice Presidential citizen. reformer. governor and mother.

I know lots of people formerly Dems who are voting for Sarah as am I.
McCain has made himself irrelevant.
He always was for me and a lot more like me, but the thought of 0B0mbers marxist ideas is enough to make me vote for Sarah and there are a lot of us out there.

Screw McCain, 0B0mber, Biden and the inside D.C elites they are the reason we have a huge problem we need more Sarahs’.

If you’re honest with yourself, you already know McCain’s going down. Heck, this is a man whom even conservatives were excoriating only weeks ago. Now suddenly we’re cold, so the rest of the country should put on a sweater? Get off it.

The question is: Will Obama crush McCain by such a margin that the Democrats win a filibuster-proof Senate?

AP, we really do need to start paying more attention to the Senate races. That’s where hope lies.

Sources inside Team Maverick tell him that McCain has to step lightly on the CRA thanks to the left’s racial demagoguery and to the fact that it’s a complex economic issue and explaining complex economic issues isn’t his strong suit. Exit question: Er, at this point, what does McCain have to lose?

What’s McCain gonna do? Lose the black vote? The media crying racism can only help McCain anyways – if they’ll avoid a serious discussion on this; that’s their problem.

If this bill passes and McCain doesn’t start hammering it home, he doesn’t want to win.

From what I understand Sen. Obama the Harvard lawyer doesn’t have anything publish from his time at Harvard Law Review. There is rumored to be a sad lack of a paper trail for someone supposedly so talented. That’s an interestingly narrow criteria you have for your candidate. Where does character fit on the list?

We’ll be lucky if Der Ein hasn’t outlawed the Republican party by then.

ManlyRash on October 3, 2008 at 12:57 PM

For that, I WOULD leave. I know it’s overdone and ridiculously exaggerated, but hey if I’m gonna be a fugitive I might as well be a fugitive that doesn’t get caught.

I know lots of people formerly Dems who are voting for Sarah as am I.
McCain has made himself irrelevant.
He always was for me and a lot more like me, but the thought of 0B0mbers marxist ideas is enough to make me vote for Sarah and there are a lot of us out there.

Screw McCain, 0B0mber, Biden and the inside D.C elites they are the reason we have a huge problem we need more Sarahs’.

dhunter on October 3, 2008 at 1:01 PM

Ditto all the way. I think a lot more people than we realize agree with us. It’s just depressing because those people are the ones that almost no one talks about.

These writings should dissappoint not because they’re “traitors” but because they’re right. And i respect krauthammer greatly for having the balls to admit that obamas temperment and intellect are an asset to the office of the presidency…policy aside.

ernesto on October 3, 2008 at 12:45 PM

I think that when Obama finally has to make solitary stands on issues his sheen fill dull fast. Anyone watching closely enough at him in the generals saw that whenever he was backed into a corner, he threw his principles out the window. FISA anyone?

The justice in all this, albeit painful for everyone, is that the clowns who created this mess will finally get blamed for it. There will be a few months of forgiveness, but then the public mood will sour.

There’s no possible way the economy under the next president won’t be considerably worse than any time under Bush. We’re only .4 %-pts away from topping his high of 6.4% unemployment. The deficit for the 2009 fiscal year starting this week was projected to break Bush’s record handily- and that was before Fannie/Freddie, AIG and today’s bailout. Id be surprised if it didn’t hit $600B this year.

Obama’s doing well because he has the cover of the press and all he’s required to do right now is speak. Having to actually do things is a little tougher. He ain’t ready for what’s about to blow up in his face.

To me, Fred Barnes is a liberal in republican clothing. I am fed up with him in Fox News and don’t want to see him again frankly. As for Krauthammer, he is an elitist in the sense of George Will. Krauthammer is gifted in wordage, but his analysis is obscure and rather weak.

dont care HOW much i agree or disagree with someones policies, if they don’t have the knowledge to publish an article in foreign affairs i dont want them as president. as it stands right now, its fairly obvious sarah palin doesn’t know enough about the big geopolitical issues to pass that test. and so i wont support the idea of putting her in a federal leadership position.

mind you, this judgement on my part has NOTHING to do with policy proposals or ideology.

ernesto on October 3, 2008 at 12:56 PM

You seem to admire, and appear more than willing to support, an empty suit who is closed lipped about violent and corrupt persons in his very recent past, his academic history, medical history, real estate knowledge, etc. Is it his aura that hooked you, amigo?

I’ve seen them (more than once) stand at the side of the road, and wait until the car (moving at 25-30 mph) is almost on them, then they run out. I think it may be that they think they’re hidden until the threat gets too close, then they panic. I’ve walked within 8 feet of them, and not known they were there until they took off.

You are still underestimating Palin. Assuming the worst comes to pass (an Obama victory), Palin will still be able to be a national player in 2012 shoud she decide she wants the top job. She’s left a big impression on the electorate that won’t soon be forgotten, while Jindal’s appeal is still largely confined to Louisiana and conservative political junkies. Don’t get me wrong – I like Jindal and think he’ll be a player – and I’m glad to have him on our bench. But I think Palin has a big head start.