The Mets can contend for the wild card.

Noah K. Murray/Star-LedgerJose Reyes has done everything humanly possible to keep the Mets relevant. When David Wright comes back, he needs to step up and take some of the pressure off Reyes.

With David Wright, Ike Davis and Johan Santana watching from the sidelines, the Mets entered the month of June four games under .500.

With a difficult schedule for the month of June, many prognosticators believed the Mets would be out of the running for a playoff spot by July 1. Well, July 1 is now here and the Mets are a game over .500, five and a half games out of a wild card spot and hitting the ball as well as they have in recent memory. The month of June presented the Mets with a big test and they passed with flying colors.

Last year at the same time, the Mets were ten games over .500 and they quickly faded from relevance. So it is fair to be skeptical of this team, biding your time waiting for the other shoe to drop.

But this year is different from last year in many ways, not the least of which is their manager.

When I look at the 2011 numbers for the pitching staff, the only pitcher who is far exceeding expectations is Dillon Gee. Capuano has held up so far and the other three (Dickey, Niese and Pelfrey) have pitched about as expected. The bullpen has been up and down ... it is safe to say the bullpen has performed to expectations. Since nobody is pitching beyond what a reasonable person would have expected (aside from Gee), it is quite reasonable to expect the Mets pitching in the second half to be at least as good as it has been in the first half (Gee declines, someone else [maybe Santana?] steps up and gets hot).

Barton Silverman/The New York TimesBeltran has played more games than any other Met this season. That durability is unlikely continue as the season enters the dog days of the second half.

Offensively, Jose Reyes has carried the load as he is having a year for the ages, nobody could have seen this coming. Beltran was expected to miss significant time this year, requiring frequent rest. However, he is having a typical Beltran year. Paulino and Turner have been pleasant surprises. But Jason Bay and Angel Pagan have taken nearly three months before becoming contributors. Wright was off to a slow start before going down with a back injury and Ike Davis was playing extremely well before also heading to the disabled list.

If Jason Bay, Angel Pagan and David Wright play to the back of their baseball cards, it is reasonable to expect the offense to improve in the second half. An improved offense combined with a pitching staff that has held it's own is enough to compete for a wild card berth.

Aside from the Phillies, the National League is filled with flawed teams, so anything is possible in 2011.

Having said all that, I do not expect the Mets to seriously contend for the wild card at any point this year. Their lack of defense at catcher, first and second (when Tejada does not play) combined with their overall lack of depth will keep the Mets teetering around the .500 mark all season.

Some have suggested that the Mets continuing to survive has put Alderson in a bad spot and will prevent him from selling at the deadline. The notion that a GM would prefer his team to just lose so he can make his moves is ludicrous. The only move that HAS to be made this year is trading K-Rod and that WILL happen regardless of the Mets record.

Zuma PressK-Rod will be traded at the deadline. But his departure will have little impact on the Mets chances to secure a wild card spot.

When that happens, the sky will not fall. The impact of a closer on a team's won/loss record is overstated, particularly when the closer has a high WHIP and is no longer dominant.

All eyes are on Reyes and Beltran. Nothing would please Alderson more than being "forced" to retain those guys. Beltran won't bring back much in a deal (other than salary savings). If Reyes plays until the end of the season and then walks, the Mets get two high draft picks ... who knows, one of those picks may turn out to be better than what they would have gotten in a trade (remember, David Wright was the compensation the Mets received for losing Mike Hampton to free agency).

Can the Mets compete for the wild card? Absolutely. Do I think they will seriously contend. No.

The Mets have had more than their fair share of misfortune the past few years. Maybe this is the year that things begin to even out and break their way. Let's hope so ... because the Mets will need some good luck to contend this year.