]]>I don’t know whether or not you’ve heard about it, but the Raptors are in the playoffs. It’s kind of a big deal. The city is buzzing with anticipatory anticipation. That last sentence isn’t a typo, I assure you. Poorly written, perhaps, but not a mistake. For while fans of the Raptors are falling all over themselves with excitement, the city as a whole is waiting for a couple of wins before it jumps on board. Toronto is one of the biggest bandwagon sports towns that way. They’re like overly cautious investors who want to wait for a sign of a sure thing before jumping on board. Just look at last year’s first round playoff “run” by the Leafs. When the Leafs drew the top rated Bruins, people were excited(ish) that the Leafs made the playoffs, but that excitement was tempered by the expectation of a quick series loss. By the time the Leafs had stretched the series to 7 games people were ready to tattoo blue maple leafs across their foreheads (Let’s not dwell on how all of that ended. I know I’ve already forgotten. What are we even talking about?…). The same was especially true for the Blue Jays, who have always enjoyed support but have never really been a big deal. Except of course for that 92-93 stretch when they won back-to-back World Series and they were the biggest thing that had ever happened to this city. Those guys were rock stars. Third grade kids growing up in otherwise casual sports fan houses knew the names of all three starting outfielders. Joe Carter got a sandwich at McDonald’s named after him. Roberto Alomar became a juice magnate. Who doesn’t remember which juice it is that has the McCain punch? They were the BIGGEST deal. If you were born in the mid eighties in southern Ontario like I was, you very well might have grown up thinking that Toronto was more of a baseball than hockey crazed place. For a few years, it felt that way.
And in 2001, it almost happened with Vince Carter and the Raptors too. That playoff run was a shared excitement that hasn’t been matched since for Raptors fans. Everybody was on board. There’s a joke to be made here that 20 years of fandom with one 2nd round playoff loss being the farthest we’ve ever gotten kind of makes us the 40 year-old virgin of sports fans. There’s a truth to that. But that’s also a part of why this entire city is timbering on the precipice of bandwagon insanity. This city has so much (potential for)enthusiasm for it’s sports teams. But they’ve been hurt before. Give them a reason to believe though, and the entire GTA will be deked out in purple. Kyle Lowry’s name, once rarely known to sports fan civilians, will suddenly be overheard in the lineups of thousands and thousands of Tim Horton’s from Oshawa to Aurora, Uxbridge, Ancaster and Orillia. Mark my words; if the Raptors get two games up in this series, millions of people are suddenly going to turn into the ‘da bears’ superfans from SNL. Chris Farley is our mayor already. And you know what? I couldn’t possibly be more excited about it.

(The everybody being superfans bit, not the Tommy Boy as mayor one. That one dances a little too close to the line between tragedy and hilarity for me, with neither one probably being what you’re looking for in a leader. Amir Johnson for Mayor?)

Match-ups to watch in the series:

Let’s get into the basketball nerdery of things here.

For all the talk about how Brooklyn has been the best team in the Eastern Conference for the last 3 months, what do they have to show for it? An offense that is exactly league average at 106.7 points per 100 possessions and a defense that is ranked 20th overall. 20th overall is also where they rate in SRS, a stat that ranks each team based on an amalgamation of their point differential and strength of schedule. That same rating system has the Raptors at 12th, with a positive 2.55-point differential compared to Brooklyn’s -1.58.

Thank you to the Toronto Sun for their Raptors vs. the Dinosaurs headline. The joke here, in case you were simply confused by the oxymoron that the Raptors are also dinosaurs, is that the stars of the Brooklyn Nets are old. There is truth to that. The question is, can the Raptors young, explosive players exploit that? The Raptors have played at an equally slow pace of play as the Nets this year, focusing on defence and half-court offence instead of transition scoring (which is a pity, given that they scored at an elite efficiency all season in transition). The Nets, acknowledging the limitations of their age, have accounted for this hole in their armour. They play the same philosophy of transition defence as the famously old Boston Celtics that form half of their team did. Instead of challenging for offensive rebounds, they start to retreat towards defence almost as soon as they’ve put up a shot. This sacrifices offensive rebounds for a set defence. It certainly helps on the one hand, as the Nets have the 8th best transition defence in the league, but it gives up on offensive rebounding. For a team as prone to isolation perimeter play, occasional chucking and 3-point shooting as the Nets are, this accounts for why they get blown out as badly as they do sometimes when they’re not shooting well or creating baskets offensively. They rank amongst the league’s worst in second chance baskets. That’s very good news for a Raptor’s defence that has stingy all season. It just isn’t great news for those helping for points in bunches out of transition. Running might be a smart move to tire Brooklyn’s old legs, but they’ll be ready defensively.

The Raptor’s defence matches up remarkably well against Brooklyn’s offence. The exception here is isolation defence, where the Raptor’s finished 24th in efficiency according to synergy sports. That’s OK. Brooklyn is much more scary on paper than in reality in one on one scoring. Joe Johnson might get you a big clutch bucket when you need it out of isolation, but his scoring has been much more reputation than reality this season. 16 points a game, 2.7 assists on 22% usage is not the stat line of someone poised to take over a series. Think Rudy Gay, and you’ll calm down a bit. He’s also scored a below average 0.88 points per attempt out of isolation. For whatever reason, Johnson has largely disappointed in the playoff ever since leaving Phoenix. Without Steve Nash’s ball handling wizardry and a fast offensive system that creates open shots, Johnson’s career playoff 3point shooting percentage is almost 10% lower than his impressive overall career shooting percentage. Thats because defences kick into overdrive in the playoffs and every shot that isn’t well created is very well challenged. Hero ball doesn’t work. Sorry Joe, but I’m not scared.

Johnson hasn’t been great out of post-ups either. If Brooklyn’s game plan is really to post up it’s guards, as some have talked about, then this series could be over quickly. Shaun Livingston has been the Net’s best isolation player all year. No, seriously. But only in post-ups. He’s been well above average in post-ups, compared to 3pt shooting, where he puts up 16% from deep. Yikes. The post-up efficiency is a real weapon, though not one thats going to win a series. Post-ups eat up about 10% of Brooklyn’s offence, and Livingston takes about 10% of those post up opportunities. For those of you who like math, please share with the class that that means Livingston post-ups account for 1% of Brooklyn’s offence. When it comes to defending those post-ups, Toronto fans should be proportionately worried. Post-ups are about footwork offensively and strength and positioning defensively. Kyle Lowry is 7 inches shorter than Livingston, but almost 20 pounds heavier. Vasquez is 6’6. Terrence Ross and DeMar DeRozan are both tall, long and athletic, and Amir Johnson’s help rotations to the post are as well timed as anyone in the league. Valanciunas has looked like a completely different defender over the last few weeks with his timing as well. He isn’t an elite rim protector by any means, but the result of how much space his huge body occupies when he’s in the right place at the right time has a big impact. Brooklyn is going to die a slow, inefficient death if it makes this series about post play.

Bill Simmons and Jalen Rose are two of my favourite people. Having said that, I don’t always agree with Simmons on basketball predictions and I cringe more than agree with some of Jalen’s conclusions. This week there was a major exception. In their playoff preview for Grantland, they pointed out how Kyle Lowry is the best player in this series and, more importantly, is the type of player having the type of season to completely take over the series. My name is Andrew Thompson, and I approve this message. Couldn’t agree more on this point with Bill and Jalen. Lowry is an animal; we know this. He’s going to abuse either Livingston or Williams on defence. He’s going to eat whoever he covers alive. We’ve only seen Lowry’s intense on ball defence in brief moments when needed this season, as the team defence as a whole has been much better and he’s carried a larger offensive role. But Kyle Lowry is one of the 5 best on-ball defenders in the entire NBA when he’s engaged, and he will be. My bold prediction is that he gets to the line 8+ times a game in this series too. He got 5 free throw attempts a game this season attacking the basket in the Raptors furious fourth quarters. Except to see that again.

If DeMar and Lowry combine for 15 free throws a game, which they very well could against a Brooklyn team that is one of the most foul prone teams in the league, watch out. It’s those old legs again. Reaching in instead of moving their feet, or fouling instead of giving up a basket once you’re already beat. The Nets only plus defenders are either in their late thirties in Pierce and Garnett, or their mid-thirties with injuries like Kirilenko. Kyle Lowry and DeRozan can abuse this defence by attacking out of the pick and roll. Make the defence bend and then take it to the rim. Play off that with the spot-up 3 point shooting that the Raptors have done at an elite efficiency this season and have Johnson and Valanciunas eating up the Nets porous rebounding with offensive boards and put-backs and you have your recipe. Let’s see if they can deliver.

Injury Report

Toronto
Reggie Evans – Out
Linas Kleiza – Out

Charlotte
Tyrus Thomas – Out

Player Report

Jose Calderon
Heading into the all-star break, Jose’s was mightily struggling with his shooting. Over the last five games, he has gone 12-45 from the field (1-103FG); the Raptors went 1-4 in that stretch. He has been exceptional at getting people involved on offense with his passing, avering 10.6 over the stretch. Of his 8.9ast/game on the year, 4.2 of them result in a dunk or layup, I like that a lot. Tonight against Augustin, I just worry about the open looks DJ will get from behind the arc; he’s averaging 14pts 7ast in the two games played against the Raptors.

Truth be told, I’m more concerned about the drop-off when Bayless gets in the game. He’s going to have to deal with a hottish Shaun Livingston, who has turned it up a notch over the last few games. I have no real data to support this, just what I’ve witnessed and inferred, but Jerryd hasn’t been pulling his weight consistently enough.Box: 9pts 13ast 4rebs

DeMar DeRozan
Should DeMar have won his 1st round match-up with Griffin? Probably, but when you’re in the Griffin’s house, and there’s buzz that he’s gonna jump over a car, you have to execute perfectly; DeRozan didn’t. Much like Bargnani, I’m running out of things to say about DeRozan. All I’m hoping is that if he wants to shoot the ball so much, that he does a better job of getting better looks at the rim from 16+ feet. Run around a few low screens, curl towards the basket once-in-a-while, mix it up. If you’re going to carve your niche out as a scorer, than you need to be damn good at it. Defenses tighten in the post-season, and nothing is easier than stopping a shooting guard who shoots more than half his shots from 16-18ft without having to get himself open (someone finds him standing around). Look, I like the kid a lot (he’s been my Twitter background since last year), and I know it’s only his 2nd season in the league, but all I’m saying is that it isn’t too early to start to develop good habits, and hone the tricks of your trade.

Stephen Jackson makes me nervous. He does a lot of things out on the court; so when that shot isn’t falling, he’s giving you rebounds, assists, steals and playing solid defense. Not saying anything other than he is someone to look too at the 2-guard spot, for the breadth of his contribution on the court. Box: 16pts 4rebs 2stl

Sonny Weems
It’s never easy checking kamikaze wings like Wallace, but if Sonny’s size/strength is of any use at all, it’s in these situations. Not saying that Sonny has what it takes to shut Wallace down, he doesn’t (Wallace is averaging 17.5pts 9rebs 4ast 4blk this season against the Raptors), but he can make it him hard on both ends of the floor IF HE DOESN’T BAIL HIM OUT BY SHOOTING CONTESTED JUMPER, AND ALWAYS MAKES AN EFFORT TO ATTACK THE RIM. That’s Sonny style; tight but aggressive. Get out in the open court and lay it up; get the ball on the wing, fake the shot and go baseline for a dunk. Attack the paint, spin right and lay it up with your left hand. You have great physical gifts man; please jah, show him the way!Box: 10pts 6rebs

Amir Johnson
It was hard watching him try to make that pass off the backboard, but it wasn’t his fault. If DeMar wanted someone who could make that play, he should have brought Calderon with him. Hell, even Weems would have done a better job after that perfect pass he threw off the side of the back-board last season at the dunk-off for DeMar.

No Raptor benefited more from the all-star layoff than Amir, who has been an absolute warrior playing through injury. He’s going to get a lot of different looks against Diaw, Jackson and Wallace (the latter two from time to time), but our boy is up to it. I have no worries here.Box: 10pts 13rebs 4ast 1blk

Andrea Bargnani
If Bargnani just did one other thing well to go alongside his scoring, I’d have no problem with him. Frankly, if he blocked 2+ shots a game, I’d be his biggest cheerleader since it would mean his defensive rotations were solid and he was aggressively challenging shots in the paint. 2+ blocks a game also means he would be affecting countless other shot attempts, which makes him a more agile, and offensively more efficient version of Andrew Bogut.

Nothing feeds my rage like Nazr Mohammed having season defining games against the Raptors front court. The guy is averaging 12pts 6.5rebs in 18.5min against the Raptors this season, well above his season/career averages. Just need to put a body on him, and box him out until he folds; there’s no secret in playing the guy. As for Kwame Brown…lol!Box: 22pts 6rebs 1blk

Keys to the Game

Score in the Paint
It’s safe to say that with Diop injured, the Bobcats don’t have the size/strength to battle Andrea, Amir and Ed in the paint. Their perimeter defense is a different story. With both games these teams have played this season being determined by 6-points or less, getting easier baskets in the key is the way to go. I just don’t want to see Stephen Jackson stripping Bargnani at the top of arc again.

Rebounding
With the potential for the pace of the game to slow considerably, making each possession that much more critical, grabbing as many rebounds against one of the best rebounding teams is paramount. A lot of the rebounding burden will have to fall to DeRozan, Weems and Wright who have to deal with tremendous rebounders on the wing in Jax and Wallace. If these two approach double-digits in rebounds, it will spell trouble for the Raptors.

No Easy Buckets
The Bobcats are the 3rd worse scoring team in the association; with a lot of that having to do with the questionable shots Stephen Jackson takes. Defensive rotations need to be tight, and the ball needs to be protected at all times to minimize the Bobcats quality looks at the rim.

The Line

The gamblers have the Cats down as 7.5 point favourites with an over/under of 195.5. This line sounds a bit absurd with the shuffling of coaches mid-season, and the trade rumours surrounding Jackson and Wallace, but the game is in Charlotte, and the Bobcats will the luxury of drawing some inspiration from one of their Lady Cats. Raptors beat the line, but lose by 4.

]]>http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2011/02/22/gameday-toronto-raptors-vs-charlotte-bobcats-february-22-2011/feed/11Gameday: Raptors vs Bobcats – Nov. 10/10http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2010/11/10/gameday-raptors-vs-bobcats-nov-1010/
http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/2010/11/10/gameday-raptors-vs-bobcats-nov-1010/#commentsWed, 10 Nov 2010 13:33:47 +0000http://raptorsrepublic.com/?p=21511The Raptors host the Bobcats at the ACC in a bid to avoid the cellar in the East, and stop the bleeding before heading out on another 4 game road swing

You joke about a team starting the year winless, or 2-18 after a quarter of the way in, but you never think it will actually happen. A lot is at stake tonight against the Bobcats, namely the tag of worse team in the East. It’s been a few years since we’ve had to worry about that tag, but it’s quickly approaching.

The good news is the Bobcats are right there with us, and we have a chance to stop the bleeding, yea…

I had a chance to speak to Brett Hainline of Queen City Hoops about the Bobcats:

The trading of Chandler (along with the cutting of Dampiers non-guaranteed contract), then signing Kwame Brown to fill the void seems contrary to Michael Jordan’s stated goal of making the playoffs. I was almost waiting for the other shoe to where Adam Morrison gets an invite to camp. What’s going on?
With the re-signing of Tyrus Thomas, the Bobcats payroll for this coming season was beyond what MJ was willing to pay for a borderline playoff team. If Tyson was still in Charlotte (and stayed healthy most of the year), the Bobcats ceiling is still, what, 48 wins? That’s based off the 44 last year, and Tyrus Thomas and Stephen Jackson being in Charlotte for the full season (and ignoring going from Raymond to D.J. at the point). Apparently, MJ and the front office think that the core of Jax, Crash, Boris, and Tyrus are still a borderline playoff team, and now a little cheaper (but just a little).

The Bobcats seem really thin at the point. Letting Felton walk was real suspect considering Livingston is the backup at point. The Bobcats have the luxury of Stephen Jackson at the point-forward, but this isn’t an ideal situation. Brown and Augustin seemingly haven’t been on the same page, but to his credit, he has played pretty well to start the season all things considered. How do you see this playing out?
D.J. had a really strong rookie season, providing some instant scoring off the bench. Based on his size, and skill set, that seemed like a great role for him. Cost considerations have forced him into a bigger role – and so far he has handled it well – at least offensively. In fact, despite some concerns that D.J. was too much of a shoot-first point for Larry’s taste, LB has been chiding D.J. to shoot more early this season. However, defensively, concerns still exist – D.J. is only an inch or so shorter than Raymond, but Raymond had a bit more heft to him that helped him defend and get through screens a bit better than D.J. has been able to. That is going to be the greatest concern – can D.J. defend well enough to justify starter’s minutes.

1-6 to start the season, but the Indiana and Detroit games were very winnable. Looking at the schedule, The rest of November isn’t horrible in terms of quality of opponents, can we expect to see an improvement, or are you guys bound to the same fate as Raptor fans?
The Cats started slow last year as well – and turnovers were a big part of the problem then as well. Early in the season, this is a team that is going to struggle to score, as switching point guards from last year is a significant change from last season. The roster turnover was somewhat low for a Bobcats team – but just for a Bobcats team, as the team has 2 different starters, 2 new players in the rotation (Livingston and Kwame Brown expected to garner minutes when he gets healthy), and 5 new players overall. That unfamiliarity (and Larry Brown’s general complex/detailed playbook) takes a while to gel.

Additionally, the Bobcats are still figuring out how to defend with this different group of players – last year, they relied on Tyson Chandler and Theo Ratliff to lock down the post, and Nazr played with a focus on scoring. WIth Nazr starting this year, the Cats defensive strength is missing so far. DeSagana Diop and Kwame Brown are going to be counted on to provide those minutes – Diop’s been solid so far and we’ve yet to see what Kwame will provide.

Anything else you want to add about this squad?
It’s been a slow start – but rather than the some of the older squads of the past, there is some reason to be excited about this one, even in losses. Watching them run out a long, athletic group with Livingston, Gerald Henderson, Derrick Brown, Tyrus Thomas, and Boris Diaw – it’s fun basketball to watch. Boris may seem like an odd fit with these lanky athletes -but his skill set and versatility on defense are a good complement.

Injury Report

Toronto
Ed Davis – Out

Charlotte
Kwame Brown – Out
Boris Diaw – Day-to-day

Match-ups

PG – Jack vs Augustin
Must be my curse, but as soon as I picked up Augustin for my fantasy league, he had two pretty games in a row, and I was forced to drop him. Overall he’s had a pretty good start to the season considering he’s essentially the load at point on his own. I suspect he breaks out from that funk tonight because he is a quick guard who has 3-point range: a recipe for playing well against the Raptors. Jack bounced back from a couple pretty brutal games with a solid outing against the Warriors, all things considered of course. I mean, when Curry puts up 34pts 5rebs 4ast 3stl on a bum ankle, his 24pts 8ast is put into perspective. Jack can give Augustin some problems with size and strength, and with Calderon on the second unit, they can really take it to the Augustin and Livingston and Collins all night. We have the horses here, just have to go at them and want to put a thin point guard situation to a test. One thing that has me concerned is Augustin’s passing ability that comes off his quickness…whatever….Edge: Augustin wins the individual dual, but the Raptors win at point overall

SG – DeRozan vs Jackson
The league is filled with quality shooting guards, so DeRozan wont be walking into many match-ups where he has an edge. Jackson is a world champion, wiley vet, and destructive force all wrapped into a nice bull-dog of a package. If he’s on, this is going to get messy. He does so much, so well, that DeMar will be tested in all facets of the game. What DeMar has in his pocket is his athleticism and quickness, as does Weems. Running the floor and making Jackson run around screens is the only chance they have at slowing him down. Get him frustrated, and hopefully he implodes.Edge: Jackson

SF – Kleiza vs Wallace
Kleiza hasn’t had to deal with a kamikaze forward who crashes the boards and plays off the ball very well. This is a key match-up for the game, and I would be totally down on this one, except that Kleiza is coming off a strong performance against the Warriors that should carry over. I’d like to see Kleiza go to the post, and try to get Gerald into foul trouble. On the offensive glass, Wallace is one of the best, and if it comes down to a hustle match-up, will grab everything Evans doesn’t. It’s really going to be a long night for Linas, I don’t see any two ways about it.Edge: Wallace

PF – Evans vs Diaw
Diaw was a nose hair away from being the Raptor, so it would only be fitting if he killed us tonight. Evans should own on the boards, and it’s a draw defensively, but Diaw is crafty and can contribute in all fronts on offense: passing, shooting, in the post. He has been playing big minutes, and with his conditioning (as far as I remember), it might take a toll on him. It should be noted that Tyrus Thomas could potentially move into the starting lineup as a result of his solid play in limited play off the bench. If this is the case, he will give Evans a hell of a time since he’s longer, faster and more athletic. I’d expect to see a lot more of Amir Johnson tonight since he can negate what Thomas can bring to the table.Edge: Even

C – Bargnani vs Mohammed
The Raptors have given Nazr a career over the years, affording him opportunities to put up big games (by his standards anyways). If Bargnani can’t win this match-up, I’m putting ‘Vegetable Lasagna’ back on the table; I think that’s fair.Edge: Bargnani

Keys to the Game

Protect the Ball
Even without Chandler, the Bobcats are 8th in the league in points allowed, giving up 95.6 a contest. They put pressure on the ball, rotate well, and play solid man defense. With Jackson and Wallace playing big minutes anchoring the perimeter, crisp passes and ball movement will be crucial to peck at the brick wall.

Play Big
This is one of those games where Amir has to keep his head in it. The Bobcats are the second worse rebounding team in the league. Control the glass, get more possessions and run it down their throat. The Raptors offense can put a lot of pressure on the Bobcats if they get out and run, which all comes down to grabbing the rebound on starting the break. The Bobcats are also the worst offensive team in the league, so there should be plenty rebounds to grab, especially with the questionable shots Jackson takes. No excuses for Bargnani either; saying he scores and doesn’t need to grab rebounds is simply ignoring the fact that scoring is only one dimension of playing ball. Bargnani will never become a wicked defender, but he at 7 feet, can grab rebounds. Stop pussyfooting, take off your panties and do something already.

Sense of Urgency
1-6 to start the season with a winnable game against an equally inept team. The Bobcats have starish type players who can take over a game, but the Raptors just can’t let them. Enough’s-enough boys, it’s time to put the women and children to sleep and perform.

The Line

The gamblers have the Raptors as 2 point favourites, with an over/under of 194.5. This game is prime to be ground out. The Bobcats have the personell to win these sorts of games since they are so defensively efficient. Still doesn’t mean the Raptors can’t impose their style of play against a team that isn’t playing very well right now.

You can support the team by following the #RTZ (Raptors Twitter Zone) hashtag. Regardless of how bad this team is playing, we’re all fans and want to see them find their way. Respect to Nat from Heels on Hardwood for putting this initiative together.