Thursday, 1 December 2011

The final five

Ahh the time has finally come to put some percentages into the equation! There's an assumed five spaces left in the class, so here's how I think things could play out, with percentages for each recruit. Remember, these are just my opinions, although I'd like to think they are well reasoned opinions...

1) WR Amara Darboh: There's been a fair bit of buzz since his Michigan visit last weekend. Everyone is assuming Michigan is leading, and the only thing in our way right now is a trip to Florida that might not even happen. Even if he does go to see the Gators, I still love Michigan's chances; (Florida's leading receiver is Andre Debose with 15 catches for 423 yards...their RB has 28 catches....). Notre Dame could be a contender, but they already have 3 WRs committed along with an athlete who could play WR or Safety.
Chances of picking Michigan: 80%

2) WR Jehu Chesson: Another visitor from last weekend; Chesson struck up a friendship with Darboh, and there's a strong possibility that they will attend college together at Michigan. Chesson loved his UM visit, and the competition is Iowa and Northwestern, not exactly big time schools. Jehu has a great chance to play at a big time school in Michigan, at a time when the Wolverines are searching for their next great receiver; it should be hard for him to pass up that opportunity.
Chances of picking Michigan: 65%

3) RB Brionte Dunn: You know the story. If he goes with his head, it's Michigan. If he goes with his heart, it's OSU. In the end I think he realizes that his best opportunity to excel is at Michigan, in a pro style offense in front of a monster OL that is taking shape in this current recruiting class.
Chances of picking Michigan: 55%

4) CB Yuri Wright: He's been heavily focused on his high school playoffs recently, and thus didn't get a chance to visit, but there's a good chance he makes it up to Ann Arbor this month. Yuri has spoken highly of Michigan, even though he hasn't visited yet, and that has to be a good sign. If all goes well on the visit, Michigan may well be the team to beat.
Chances of picking Michigan: 40% (It's not a high percent, that's because there are still a lot of schools in the running.)

5) Mystery Tight End: It could be Taylor McNamara, it could be J.P Holtz who was visited this week by the coaching staff, or it could be a TE out of nowhere! Whoever it is, Michigan wants/needs one more in this class.
Chances of picking Michigan: N/A (none have visited yet, or even set a visit date)

This means, despite the good visit from Josh Garnett and Jordan Diamond last weekend, as well as the coaches visit to Evan Boehm this week, I don't think they'll get another OL in this class. A lot of it has to do with decision timetables, as well as proximity to home in the case of Garnett. This also means that I don't rate Michigan's chances with Stefon Diggs; the competition will be too great, and his timeline probably doesn't help our cause.

Things can change, but if I had to call it today, this would be my guess.

EDIT: Some of you have commented that this post sets the bar too low. To be honest I don't really see it that way, it's just realistic. Michigan wants Brionte Dunn more than they want a 6th lineman, and they definitely want 2 WRs, so that's three players you'd take over Garnett/Diamond etc. Then personally I think they need another tight end in the class, because A.J Williams could easily move to OT and become a really good player there. Lastly we have Yuri Wright, who is a stud corner. I don't have any real preference as to who to take, Yuri Wright or a 6th OL, I just think Wright would be more likely to commit before Garnett/Diamond.

As for Stefon Diggs, it would be extremely optimistic to put him on this list when he's still considering 7 other schools, and hasn't visited/given any indication that Michigan is in a top 2-3. Plus Darboh and Chesson are both announcing before Christmas (maybe even before Diggs visits!), so if they choose UM, we might not even have room for Diggs.

94 comments:

So, Darboh, Chesson, Dunn, Wright and McNamara/Hultz for the last 5 spots. When Dunn goes to O$U, that leaves room for Garnett? So, leaving out Diggs, Boehm, and Diamond? So in the end, WHY does drake have an offer?! I'd much rather get Diamond, Diggs, or Boehm than an undersized RB that will be 6th on the depth chart. Am I missin somethin here?

I still think not signing 2 NTs this year is a mistake. NT pretty much should always be red-shirted so they can have 1 year of getting in shape, 1 year learning the position for the college level, 1 year filling in the rotation, 1 year as a starter and 1 year dominating.

If we don't sign 2 DTs we're looking at waiting two years (one for recruiting and one for a RS) before any help. Big mistake, especially when you have elite talent begging to come here (Schutt). Drake or Schutt.... hmm.

ok, so drake is listed at 6'1 205lbs. So that probably puts him at 6'0 190. With his speed (no 40 time but good track numbers) it looks like he could convert to slot. So is he counting as 1 of the 2 receivers at this point? I just don't get why he got an offer so quick, when only eastern gave him an offer, and only so many spots left for valuable pickups.

I think Wisconsin was thinking of offering him...we all know what they do with under-the-radar recruits. At this point I'm still fine with the Drake offer, but at this point I could care less about Dunn. I'd rather have any combo of Diggs, Darboh, Chesson, Madaris or Payton and then filling the rest of the spots with a good TE and another O-lineman, and a DB assuming we have 5 openings.

Drake has the offer because he is the #1 running back in the state. On rivals he's gone from no stars to a 3. An I think he only has 3 becausemore would make there earlier rating look to bad.Guy will play next year at 215 with legit 4.3 speed. Mich hasn't had that since Wheatley.

1. The Drake talk... Sometimes it's about building relationships. Letting an athlete of that caliber slide without an offer when his HS is literally across the street from the big house could be upsetting. If he doesn't pan out, ok, but imagine the outrage if this kid went somewhere else and became a star...Worst case scenario is he helps on special teams. Not every kid is going to be a five star, if you're going to take a chance, you do it in your own back yard, literally. 2. Benji, like your list, but think you are setting the bar low. Michigan is actively recruiting too many lineman not to save a spot for one of them, even if they do plan on committing late. Hopefully we have some snake oil left and can get in on one of these very highly touted players3. Agree that we should have taken another DT, maybe one less LB, we will have about 14 LB on the roster next year, and all returnees coming back.4. Stefon Diggs is a long shot, but would love to have him.

Remember people, we can't sign anyone we offer. Kids have to commit to you as well. Also, I know that recruiting is the lifeblood of a system, but many 2 or 3 star kids turn into all-americans as well. Have some faith that the staff knows more than we do after we read rivals, scouts, and espn reviews... If they don't, then I want a job!

Jholko... If those guys all committed we'd be pretty set. But not signing guys that are available and saving 4 or 5 slots until national signing day could leave Michigan scrambling for MAC level talent. Guys like Chesson and Darboh aren't going to wait around until February to see if Diggs and Diamond commit.

I imagine the staff will only save one or two spots into January, unless they feel good about their chances. You simply can't dismiss talent and keep your fingers crossed that an 18 year old kid commits to you

Please don't get me wrong with Drake I believe he will be a fine player at UM. The timing was in question not the qaulity. If UM offered and Drake accepted in lets say Sept. I would have liked the offer alittle more. I watched his film good speed, good hands, nice stiff arm and nice size. I do not believe he is 215lbs. more like 190 like someone said earlier. I like the kid just would of liked UM to offer him earlier.

Sidenote: I think the Northern teams should start there own bowl game and play it at Lambeau Field and call it The frozen Tondra Bowl. There slogan can be The only bowl game the SEC is afraid to play in.

Had to dig in the archives for this one "It's not just Wheatley's size and 4.4 40-yard dash that make him so coveted." and his draft bio "Tyrone Anthony Wheatley Position: RB Height: 6-0 Weight: 235 lbs."Anyways, Drake is 6'1 205 with 4.3 (possibly, no 40 time). wheatley was 6'0 235 with 4.4. I just don't see how you can compare johnson to wheatley. That wasn't even really my argument originally though, just that I thought it was a quick, unrational offer. Being right acrossed the street, there would have been plenty of time to offer

I'm really torn. On the one hand I really want Dunn so Hoke can take another big time recruit from Ohio State. On the other hand I don't think we need another running back, I would rather have Wright, 2 WR's, 1 TE and one of the two lineman. I guess trying to decide between all these high level recruits is a good problem for Michigan to have.

A few things... Drake Johnson is a pure Athlete. The kid posted the 8th fastest 110 meter hurdle time in the Nation... Not the state, not the midwest, the Nation. When he gets into space, he pulls away, and fast. It doesnt even look like he is trying on some of his tape. He is actually so fast he gets into his blockers to quick. Patience and time with Fred Jackson will improve this kid tremendously. You watch, that kid is going to do something.

On the Yuri Wright front. He has had coaches visiting him all week but doesnt mention any of them. He then gets on twitter and is excited about Mallory coming to visit him. Tweets it and then retweets fans posts about it. Exciting stuff.

It sounds like Diamond is really buying into the Meyer hype... He posted an article on Urban Meyers "instant impact on recruiting" lol he picked up a two star wr from lakeland, with about five scholarships left. I cant wait to beat them again next year and hear the excuses!

@mancave...totally agree with your assesment with drake...recruiting is more than just the now its the future as well....hoke needs to repair the relationships damaged through rr's tenure...what better place to start then across the street! I'm glad we have a stable of backs and hopefully they all push each other to greatness and hopefully drake turns into tyrone! Go blue!

Gentlemen. I think it's quite possible that Drake can become a Desmond Howard type player. Desmond was a 4 star RB in HS I believe, we had a lot of depth in the late 80's with Tony Boles and John Vaughn, so Bo converted him to WR.

So who knows, we should all just chill and let these supreme coaches figure it out for us while we sit on our arses enjoying M kick the shit out of people, ooh......goose bumps!

As much as I loved JER89's top five on another post, I believe that your last 5 is very realistic. We have a great class but need to remember that not every top ranked recruit dreams of wearing a winged helmet. With five spots left I think we get 2 top level recruits (high 4 or 5*) and two solid recruits (3 or low 4*). We've been over this before.....it's more than stars. The coaches know things we don't and there are likely certain politics involved in some choices too.

Truth is, the only one a feel real good about right now is Darboh.

Other tidbitsCurt Mallory is in New Jersey for a visit right now.....Yuri Wright????Mallory's visit with Darboh went "very well"

We have another coach in Pittsburgh as well for a visit.....don't know who for. The only recruit that I remember from Pittsburgh was Bisnowaty (OL) who has committed to PITT

I can only guess Taylor McNamara's in-home visit didn't go so well. He tweeted to another person that he was leaving today at 1 to head to Cal. Je was debating his 5th and final official to either Michigan and Cal. So that tweet doesn't fair well for us.

Meyer this, Meyer that, Meyer can recruit; what are we going to do? Hey if a kid wants to come to Michigan he will. We don’t want someone who is not all in and wants to be with the program.

The NCAA will help put a damper on Ohio’s recruiting. I know some think Ohio will get a slap on the wrist. I just don’t think that’s going to happen. I would expect a least a two year bowl ban and upwards of 15 scholarships and 3 years probation. Tressel lied to the NCAA several times during his last year and a half. I just cannot believe the NCAA will not hammer them. NCAA needs to send a message. Ohio might even fall under the repeat offender category. We should know all of this in the next 10-14 days.

As far as Dunn, he has to want to come to Michigan. And like some of you said, we are not really hurting at RB right now. Garnett would be a coup d'état.

From what I read, Drake was/is only 2/3 star because he did not go to many, if any of the footbal camps put on by various universities or shoe companies, therefore no exposure to college coaches to promote himself as a football player.

After football, he concentrates on track & field where he is the two-time defending State Champion in 100/110yd high hurdle. Could be three-time champion in the spring.

Anyway, Michigan knew about him (right across the street), and may have kept him quiet until the offer. He could very well be a BIG diamond in the rough.

@Go blue north the visit in Pitt was for a psu decommit te. JP Holtz 4 star. His mother is a 4th grade teacher and refuses for him to go to PSU. It think it's safe tk say he won't go to Syracuse either.

So are we out of it with Payton? I would take him over Darboh; I just think he is a more polished WR while Darboh is a better athlete.

Also, dont count ND out for Darboh, even though they have 3 WRs in their class and have a good chance of flipping Bryce Treggs, they need to find someone to fill that Michael Floyd-sized hole in their WR core. Also heard they are in the top 2-3 for Nelson Agholor.

In terms of Yuri, its really tough to get a read on him. One day I think he is a Michigan lock, then the next it sounds like her really likes Colorado?? Then he talks about how excited he was to hear from Urban Meyer and that they are in the mix?

People are reporting that RichRod wants to play Michigan in 2013. Does anybody else think this is a bad idea? Playing Zona does not help UM in any way. We already know we have the right coach and RR should let it go.

About RR wanting a shot at Michigan. I say lets do it. 2013 is, to most people's accounts, Michigan's year. 2012 we'll still be in a little transition, all our big recruits will be freshman, and the schedule is brutal. But by most peoples accounts, 2013 is Michigan's year.

I think they take another Olineman, because the coaches are trying so hard to. Either OF Garnett and Stacey moves inside, or Evan Boehm and Stacey stays at Guard. Indeed Pulmonary said Boehm was the toughest opponent he's ever faced even after combines so either Lineman is outstanding.

Has anyone read John U. Bacon's new book Three and Out about RichRod and his tenure at Michigan? Just got it in the mail. I personally do not harbor any ill-will towards the man besides the fact he refused to fire Greg Robinson during his last year.

That's what I was saying about Drake. He could definitely work for us in the slot and definitely as a dangerous 3rd down back. He looks like he has good hands and you never know he could grow a few more inches too.

@Justin...Lloyd Carr really comes off as a piece of work in the book. RR never stood a chance. Of course RR didn't help himself with not changing D coordinators...sometimes loyalty masks stupidity.

I'm thinking our 2 WR's will end up being Chesson and Darboh...they really hit it off on their recruiting trip

Ty Isaac.. 2013 RB... in the state championship game 515 yards 6 Td's... ya I hope we get that kid. No disrespect to Dunn, but I dont think he comes here. That being said, stick with Fitz, Develop what you have... get another BEAST O lineman and show this kid the potential holes he can run through. Just my 2 cents.

With a loss for Houston that could be more than enough help than we need. Georgia should lose to LSU and of course Wisconsin/MSU will lose today. I actually kind of hope MSU wins so that Oregon gets a taste of thug ball. The polls haven't been big fans of Houston and if they continue to lose to Southern Miss like this (which they just had a 4th down in Southern Miss territory get completely blown up) then I wouldn't be surprised if Houston dropped more than 10 spots in the polls. Just look at what the polls did to Boise after their one loss this year, they never came close to recovering. Anyway, I think we'll have more than enough losses today to get back into the top 14 even if Baylor were to have a monster game against Texas.

Did you also notice that Tennessee and Alabama didn't even offer him after he visited...ok maybe I understand Alabama...but Tennessee's program has been circling the drain for the last 5-10 years so I don't understand that one.

Jer who besides Baylor are you worried about jumping Michigan? CBS still has Georgia/Michigan projected for the Splenda Bowl and since LSU is about to run away with the SEC championship game I'd say we're pretty safe at the moment. Baylor is a Big 12 team but they don't travel well...K-state is ranked above them and the winner of the Bedlam game (Ok State/Oklahoma will likely take the other Big 12 BCS spot). Remember outside of the conference champions from BCS schools and those who finish 1-2 in the rankings, it's all about politics and who will put the butts in the seats. Baylor is a small school that doesn't travel well. TCU won't jump us...they won big today but it doesn't really matter by how much you win by if it was against a team that is now 2-10.

With that win Baylor is still 9-3 we should be okay. LSU looks like they are gonna pull this one out which was the biggest game concerning Michigan coming into today! We will jump Georgia, maybe Houston, and most likely the loser of the Big 10 championship game..I think its looking good right now for the Sugar Bowl!!!

We all know the BCS does not like UM a whole lot. Baylor, TCU and Cemson all could jump a team that does not play. Remember when Forida jump UM to play OSU for the N/C?And I am not sure UH will drop that far. You can never tell what the BCS will do.

We need to gain two spots. Will likely pass Georgia and loser of B10 champ game. So we just need to avoid getting jumped by Baylor, TCU and Clemson. If one of them jumps us, we can make it up by passing Houston. If two of them jump us, we are probably screwed, but might be ok if Oklahoma loses and falls below us.

Guys look at the numbers...Baylor can't go to a game anyway...it'll go to the Oklahoma/Ok St winner and Kansas St before Baylor get's a BCS bid. TCU won't jump us but they'll still prob get in. Houston will drop a TON Jer...The polls aren't kind to non-BCS schools who don't finish undefeated...right now Boise is on the outside looking in for a BCS bowl game and they lost several weeks ago already. Va Tech probably won't get a bowl game if they lose to Clemson and Clemson wouldn't jump us anyway. I'd say at this point we're in unless some screwy politics go on. In that the politics would favor us anyway...it's definitely in our favor that there are a lot of smaller schools in the rankings this year. Quit being so paranoid lol...

They won't trust me...Michigan would be a more attractive pick for a BCS bowl game than a non-conference champ Va Tech and and Ok State...once you're outside of the national title game of 1 vs 2...it's whoever the Bowl Games believe will create the most attractive matchup (translation who they think will bring the most fans with them) and Michigan travels exceptionally well in general and couple that with the fact that it would be the first BCS bowl game Michigan has played in long time and the amount of excitement surrounding our program...

I don't know why people say UM travels well. I was at the Gator Bowl and I was out numbered 2-1. The UM side of the fiels was only 3/4 soldout. MSU was soldout and seating on UM side of the field as well.

It's not just about how well you travel, selling commercials for television matters even more with viewer count (big dollars there). Plus most teams up north may not fill up seats for bowl games that are all played in warm climates. So 3/4 is still over norm for a teams sales from up north. It's an away game for northern teams and always will be. Commercial sales make a huge difference if your marketable like UM is.I think we're a lock and it's a lot of worry for nothing about whether we make a bcs game.

Akmed, don't take it personal when people don't just assume you're right or even have your general confidence in something. It's all good, time always tells everything and they're not gonna always share your opinion on here and you won't always share there's. We're all gonna share one thing though.... .Go Blue

People on here definitely don't share my confidence or common sense apparently...things are falling our way this year...sometimes it seems like a lot of people on here aren't even Michigan fans...so much negativity...Go Blue doesn't mean go be negative...

I dont think the concern is that michigan fans travel well, but the fact that the University of Michigan has one of the largest fan bases spread out throughout the entire country. there is an article on espn behind a paywall that says that bowls are fighting to get the wolverines to play in their bowl because of said fan base/alumni and because the name alone along with a much improved team will lead to high ratings.

Question: Why does everybody have a non AQ (Houston/Boise/TCU) team in the Sugar vs. Michigan? Wouldn't it be smarter for the BCS to place the non AQ team vs the Big East champion and put a team like Stanford up against Michigan?

"The most interesting case of the year. A lock to be chosen if eligible, the Wolverines need to finish in the top 14. That means they need to move up two spots. The easiest way? #14 Georgia loses to LSU, and either #13 MSU or #15 Wisconsin loses and drops below UM. How could it go wrong? Maybe the Spartans lose but the pollsters keep them above Michigan, whom they beat? Probably the Wolverines move ahead enough in the computers to still gain the spot. Baylor beats Texas and jumps Michigan? Again, possible but not probable. We assume that Michigan makes the top 14 unless Georgia beats LSU, and even then they could if Houston loses, but we don't count on it for the calculations. If LSU beats Georgia, Michigan is the Sugar Bowl's first pick; if Georgia wins and Houston loses, Michigan could be the Fiesta Bowl's #2 pick if Houston drops far enough. There hasn't been a team in quite a while that is so certain to be chosen if they can just crack the top 14. Update: Houston's solid loss likely brightened the picture for Michigan; the Cougars actually lost by enough that they could fall below the Wolverines which would put them in the top 14. But it's LSU beating Georgia, that helps Michigan the most. Things are looking very good for the Wolverines."

Houston gets blown out. I wouldn't be surprised if they drop below Michigan because they got blown out, at home, by another C-USA team. Voters might see Houston exposed and finally rank them low like they deserve. LSU rolls Georgia, goods news for us. MSU loses, good news for us. Only thing that scares me, is, Baylor smoked Texas. That MIGHT be enough to bump them up, but hopefully enough teams fall below us to keep some distance and put us in the top 14.

Michigan vs. Big East is my guess for sweetness bowl. WV should get the nod there? We steal all their coaches so I'd be excited for that match up. Show them why they jump at the chance to come up north. Also hope Ohio vs Florida happens. We shall see tomorrow evening.

Coming into this day I was a little worried but now I think I can sleep ez...houston georgia msu oklahoma maybe even vatech will fall below us I won't be suprised if we are at 12 or 11 after those losses....we will find out tommorow can't wait!

@schmiege I agree with florida v ohio would be killer....but id rather have it next year...oooo wait ohio gonna get banned! Or they better because the ncaa has been giving them way to much leway...how in gods name does the ncaa allow five starters to play in the sugar bowl last year knowing they should have benn ineligiblle! Amazing...neway goooooo blue!!

oh so nice to see that on your five list, you have WR Amara Darboh, he gained my heart and respect after the first games, he is amazing and according to some cost per head blogs, he will be the player of the year for Michigan