Annual newspaper analysis shows cost of Thanksgiving dinner rises

BY JAMES HAGGERTY (STAFF WRITER)Published: November 18, 2012

Grocery shoppers will serve up more money to put Thanksgiving dinner on the table this year.

Consumers, though, will barely see the impact from a searing drought in the Midwest and South that cut into crop and meat production and drove some agricultural commodities to record territory during the summer.

The average price for 15 items used in a traditional Thanksgiving meal increased 3.5 percent over 2011, an annual Sunday Times survey of three grocery chains shows. The cost of the 15 items, which includes a 20-pound turkey, totaled $57.97, up from $56.10 in 2011.

The averages are based on prices provided by Price Chopper, Gerrity's Supermarket and Wegmans. All three grocery chains offer some items at lower prices than the survey averages.

"Thanksgiving dinner is still a great bargain, and it is every year when you consider the cost per person," said Jo Natale, a spokeswoman for Wegmans, a grocery chain based in Rochester, N.Y., that operates supermarkets in Dickson City and Wilkes-Barre Twp. "Prices are not up dramatically. That will be one more thing people can be thankful for."

Excluding a steep jump in the price for turkey, the total cost for other items in the index dropped by 12 percent from 2011. Prices for nine of the 15 items decreased from 2011, including sharp declines in costs for bread and some vegetables.

"It's so refreshing to see that," said Joe Fasula, co-owner of Gerrity's Supermarket, which operates nine grocery stores in Lackawanna and Luzerne counties. "Obviously, the produce helps it a lot. When it comes to manufactured products, I think we are seeing the competitiveness of the industry breaking through."

The annual survey involves the same products and grocers and includes several trademarked items. The survey average excludes sales prices, shopper-club specials and promotions, such as buy-one-get-one. The index increased by 5 percent in 2011 from 2010.

Food-at-home expenses in October were up 1 percent over the year-earlier period, the latest Consumer Price Index shows. Poultry prices advanced 5.5 percent nationally over the same 2011 period and processed fruits and vegetables are up 1.1 percent.

But costs of fresh vegetables are down 3.2 percent and prices for dairy products dropped 1.1 percent, according to the CPI.

Fuel prices, which are directly linked to food costs, remain high and are up 4 percent over the same period in 2011, according to AAA motor club.

The drought, which seared crops in the central and southern Plains states, has led to higher meat prices and will probably contribute to broader food price increases in 2013, said Ephraim Leibtag, Ph.D., a supervisor at the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Economic Research Service.

Prices for corn, a major ingredient in food and meat production, are 12 percent ahead of year-ago levels, and wheat prices are up more than 20 percent.

"I think the drought implications will show up later than the current time period," Dr. Leibtag said. "Retail prices take anywhere from a few months to a year to show that. Food production costs are going up and certainly, we are going to see that at some time."

The relative year-to-year stability of prices reflects competition among grocers and the importance of food to the Thanksgiving holiday.

"Stores are really looking to keep prices low, especially on the products people are going to need to put that meal on the table," Ms. Natale said.

"Everybody wants to get that food dollar into their store," Mr. Fasula said.

Consumers benefit from the rivalry, said David Livingston, a Milwaukee-area independent supermarket analyst.

"It has a lot to do with the competitive environment," Mr. Livingston said. "The costs of a lot of things may be going up for the grocer, but their margins are getting squeezed."

Contact the writer: jhaggerty@timesshamrock.com

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