I wish I had some new and earth shattering wave counts to discuss here. Alas, the S&P 500 is progressing how we sort of envisioned it a few weeks ago when it was very overbought. Those sorts of extreme conditions cannot last and we were do for at least some short term corrective behavior. And, "corrective" is the right term for what we've witnessed from the 1227 peak. Unfortunately, the Wave count suggests several weeks of what should be boring sideways/lower price action into the end of the year.

Weekly Support/Resistance Levels for the S&P 500:

R2: 1219

R1: 1207

S1: 1173

S2: 1158

Took a few moments to look at Gold which suffered some "body blows" in the last several trading days. Weekly Support/Resistance for Gold are:

R1: $1,377

R2: $1 363

S1: $1,341

S2: $1,329

Use the above cite levels at your discretion and risk.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Anecdote:

We spend the weekend in the The Woodlands, TX for a large Holiday Show where my wife was a participant. The entire area was "bustling" and the crowds were buying. It was one of her best shows ever. I'm expecting a strong Christmas season, at least in "these parts"....

Football Thought:

It's an "old saw" that "Good Teams Find Ways to Win while Poor teams find Ways to Lose." This is absolutely TRUE. For an example of this phenomenon, please refer to the Houston Texans performance throughout the years. They're consistently finding new ways to lose games. Gary Kubiak probably won't be fired this year, but I'm certain he'll be making some other team a very good Offensive Coordinator in the next two years.

Thanks Andy. The weekly 3LB trend is still up even though the SPX closed below its weekly midpoint. It hasn't been able to really get away from the mid so it's on the bears to prove their case. Also it's holding above the monthly 3LB reversal (six more trading days left).

evening! that's great news for your wife's business, Andy.. and I know my husband says Austin is thriving.. Not sure if you caught my recent video post of your Governor.. seems as tho all the job creation has been in TX..

It certainly appears that the severity of the global debt crisis is a living entity. That the attempt by many governments to shift the debt burden to, by definition, the individual taxpayer, is not going to work out so well.

I read about the US public deciding they are goinng to spend more this Christmas..I wonder if these things are so...Payroll taxes at the mine are increasing...

"I talked about my new investing sport in which I paddle in front of the biggest wave I can see coming and then I hang on despite the sometimes deafening roar of short-term news flow and uninformed opinion"

"In response to your Nov. 17 editorial "The Real Euro Danger" highlighting potential concentration risk and the risk of possible solvency concerns for the euro going forward: What concerns me is the lack of urgency regarding the sheer size of Europe's debt.

When you add just the debt of Ireland, U.K., France, Germany and Italy, it is the equivalent of $18 trillion. When you add up the total amount of outstanding debt among European nations it is greater than $26 trillion."

It's above the monthly 3LB reversal (damn). If it closes the month above 1-1-8-6-6-9 the SPX will have reversed higher. But the weekly is below its mid which indicates weakness. So long term is saying we may go higher but short term is saying not just yet.

Risk is definitely off. The next two larger economies of the EU are on deck for a smackdown (Portugal and Spain). Running to the dollar for safety (ironic isn't it). But now there are developments that will derail the US markets even more so maybe the dollar isn't the best place.

There could be some nasty news this week, though I'm wondering if it's more the insider trading than it is any nasty EU Zone news, it's been sort of a trend the last couple t-givings, last year was the Dubai episode where they attempted the current version of the Tower of Babel, and the first signs of Greece trouble also hit the news this time last year in a small way at least,... remember the famous line by Jeff Saks to Hugh Hendry this spring ("nobody was even worried about Greece 6 months ago"....Hugh had to remind him that some of us were working six months prior, and were in fact talking about Greece)...and it makes sense we'd get some bad news again as we are still in correction.

Retail appetite for risk is way back on, which also makes sense considering the bearish positions still held on to by commercials according to COT.

Andy said something about expecting a good holiday season, I'm expecting a big one on the + side, the malls here are packed right now, you'd think it's already late December.

I'm still struck by that article I posted last week about people dying with their credit cards maxed out..

Talking with my friend yesterday, an acquaintance of hers recently learned that her husband had $60K in credit card debt.. I said, oh, he probably never plans to pay it off! They have retirement money that could be used but they can't grasp the idea of dipping into that $$$.. makes your head spin, doesn't it?

"The total visible and shadow inventory was 6.3 million units in August, up from 6.1 million a year ago. The total months’ supply of unsold homes was 23 months in August, up from 17 months a year ago. Although it can vary and it depends on the market and real estate cycle, typically a reading of six to seven months is considered normal so the current total months’ supply is roughly three times the normal rate."

Huh...I was just going to post those 99er charts myself! Crafting the perfect Dickensian holidays takes time, so trading's on the back burner this week...or, if I need to make room for the gravy, off in the guest bedroom somewhere. Been an interesting morning already. Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

"Over the past several decades, no matter which political party has been in power the government has continued to become a larger part of our lives. These days many people are speaking of the "nanny state" that we have created, but the reality is far worse than that. The truth is that the government has become a gluttonous, out of control behemoth that is gobbling up everything in sight and that is attempting to exert full spectrum dominance over our lives. Today, the government seems to have an insatiable hunger to watch us, track us and control us. Now they even want to feel our private parts before we get on an airplane. No matter what politicians we send to Washington D.C., it just seems to get worse and worse. Anyone who still believes that we live in "the land of the free" is completely and totally delusional.

It isn't just in one particular area that all of this government intrusion into our lives is so offensive. What we are witnessing is the government slowly digging its fingers even deeper into our lives in a thousand different ways. Sadly, most Americans see the government as the one who is supposed to take care of them from the cradle to the grave, as the one who is supposed to fix all of the problems in society and as the one who is their ultimate authority.

This is in direct contradiction to the concept of a "limited government" that our Founding Fathers tried so desperately to enshrine in our founding documents. The American people need a big-time wake up call. The following are 8 examples of how the U.S. government is attempting to take even more control over our lives...."

Sometimes when there are line movements, you have to see how they are:

1. related to the "action" (volume & side)

2. related to the aggregate schedule (basically - Vegas knew it was taking a risk last week putting a 10 point line on the Ravens-Panthers)... It becomes almost an automatic WHEEL in teaser parlays (so sometimes they'll BAIT the public by dangling it out there)... For example... If you liked... RAVENS - GIANTS, you got smoked because you got 3.5 + 6 = (9.5) on the G-Men (and still lost)...

3. Just do the math and see how either a 6 point (2 team) 10 point (3 team) moves the line... Often it is attached to a "psychological" football number like:

So we are playing yield hog, we are long the spread compression trade, and hedging interest rate risk at the same time. Dividends still on. Not liking the indices that much until the currency/commodity picture becomes clearer, but not bearish. Not liking Treasuries at these levels. Not liking munis or investment grade.

wonder if the I made some money on the reversal today, seems like days like this, when internals favor bears, you get the nice intraday reversals. This correction isn't over yet,.... I'll buy the dip, but lower.

The last push should be fun to watch, I expect it to truncate, orthodox wavers, still on the wrong count, have a newfound confidence that can only be found with a waver, and the economic news is just as Neely said it would be, retail is starting to rediscover an old pal named Risk, and at the perfect time.

ln the meantime we'll all get to enjoy the daily dosage of JA "fundamental" analysis, at least we no longer have to hear that "it's a POMO today"

Apologies that there is no mention of the forward p/e ratio on the S&P in this post, I'll promise to try harder after turkey day.

On another note, not sure if any of you were ever X-Trends readers but after a long break Atilla is back to posting again.

Today was a risk-off day, as investors sold HY and bought IG, munis and USTs. Spreads were wider across the board, not sharply, but smoothly and gradually, like a very elegant lady uncrossing her legs for a handsome admirer.

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This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind.The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind.The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed.The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.

Fictional Character Quote of the Day:

I guess it comes down to a simple choice. Get busy living or get busy dying.

- Andy Dufresne

"The Shawshank Redemption"

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This Blog's primary focus is on trading based upon technical analysis. It is run by "AmenRa" and "AndyT," quasi-anonymous traders who employ technical analysis to assess market conditions and trading opportunities. AmenRa utilizes 3LB techniques, Moving Averages and Fibonacci sequences. AndyT's analysis relies primarily on "Wave Theory" and Fibonacci sequences. The Comments Section is uncensored and open to the public. Please try and adhere to the "Blogger Policy."