Grading our fearless prediction panel

Jan. 30, 2013

Every year the PackersNews.com staff is asked to make preseason predictions, and every year as part of our commitment to accountability, we review how accurate those forecasts turned out.

It should be noted that just because a writer has knowledge of football doesn’t mean that translates into accurate predictions. In fact, if our staff members were talented at football prognosticating, they would have left here long ago to find untold fame and fortune in Las Vegas or some other gambling venue.

The fact is, no one can forecast the future with any degree of reliability. (Ask any honest weatherman).

As a prime example, back in early September, every member of our panel picked the Packers to win the Super Bowl. Some national pundits looked down their noses and accused us of being homers. While it might look that way, the truth is everyone on our staff honestly believed the Packers were good enough to win it all, especially coming off a 15-1 record in 2011. Plus, the Packers were listed as the odds on favorite to win the Super Bowl by many Vegas bookies.

As it turned out, our panel was wrong. Let’s just say that some predictions are better than others. Here is an assessment of how each panelist did this past season.

Rob Demovsky

He picked the Packers to go 12-4, which was just one game off their 11-5 regular-season record. Where he was most impressive was in the Packers’ game-by-game predictions – he posted a sparkling 15-3 record to claim first place on the panel. He correctly picked five of the eight division winners and seven of the 12 NFL playoff qualifiers, nailed the Ravens advancing to the Super Bowl, and was the only panelist to have the Bengals and Seahawks making the playoffs. His biggest blunder was picking the Raiders (4-12) – the Raiders?!? – to win the AFC West. He also left the 49ers out of the playoffs.

Pete Dougherty

He was a tad optimistic in saying the Packers would finish 13-3 before the season started, but was only one game behind Demovsky in the weekly picks (14-4). He correctly picked five division winners and seven playoff qualifiers. To his credit, he was the only panelist that correctly said the defending Super Bowl champion Giants wouldn’t make the playoffs. To his detriment, he had the Eagles (4-12) and Panthers (7-9) winning division titles and the Bills (6-10) and Lions (4-12) making the playoffs.

Weston Hodkiewicz

The rookie on the beat had an especially sunny preseason forecast, saying the Packers would go 14-2. He was better in the weekly picks with a 14-4 overall record in picking Packers’ outcomes. His best feat was correctly picking seven division winners – only missing on the Giants. However, none of his four wild-card playoff qualifiers panned out – the Lions, Panthers, Steelers and Bills.

Mike Vandermause

He picked the Packers to finish 12-4 and likes to point out that had the refs gotten it right in Seattle, his forecast would have been dead-on. In the weekly Packers’ picks he was dead in the water and dead last on the panel with an 11-7 record. He correctly picked six of eight division winners and like everyone else on the panel, hit on seven of 12 overall playoff qualifiers. In hindsight, picking the Eagles to win the NFC East and the Lions and Chargers to make the playoffs doesn’t look so good.