ECHO political correspondent Ian Hernon looks at voter apathy if a general election is called

LABOUR is facing a problem on Merseyside as all sides gear up for the forthcoming general election - and its name is Tony Blair.

The party's biggest vote-winning asset in the 1997 landslide was undoubtedly the Prime Minister.

In 2001 many North West voters saw the contest as a foregone conclusion and stayed at home, resulting in dismal turnouts as low as 34% in the region.

Nationwide less than 59% voted. Compare that with last month's Iraqi elections where 60 per cent braved gunmen and bombers to turn up at their polling booths.

This time around Labour's great-est fear is actual hostility to Mr Blair rather than disappointment over his administration.

Voters may hold him personally responsible for the war in Iraq and its bloody aftermath, student tuition fees, benefit blitzes, asylum-seekers and violent crime. Or they may simply dislike the way he smiles.

Mr Blair is no longer an asset, his administration marred by squabbling, scandal, fiascos over casinos and 24-hour boozing, and the failure of many private investments in public services.

More people will stay at home because they have been turned off all parties. They will actively abstain, and turn-outs may again be embarrassingly low.

"Apathy has turned into antipathy," said one minister.

Abstentions could throw all the pundits' and pollsters' predictions awry.

And when that occurs anything can happen, especially in the volatile Northern heartlands.

The government's seemingly unassailable 179-strong majority could crumble, or dip below three figures.

Or, if Liberal Democrat and Tory upsurges cancel themselves out, it could result in Mr Blair emerging even stronger in his third and last term.

Most pundits, however, reckon Labour will win with a comfortable - but much-reduced - majority because of the appalling state of the Conservative party which is now on its third leader since 2001.

But Walton MP Peter Kilfoyle says: "Wiser heads - including some in No 10 - are cautious.

"Complacency and turnout could yet conspire to confound the pollsters. Sensible and experienced politicians, generally Old Labour, recognise that there is still a job to be done for the party to succeed this year."

A danger is that New Labour careerists will commandeer the party election machine and drive away genuine Labour supporters, the former defence minister adds.

"It is important that they under-stand that we face a real challenge at this election," he says.. "It is not the Tories.

"No, the real challenge is the Abstention Party. Most recent polls point to even fewer votes being cast than last time, which already plumbed new depths.

In the last two contests Labour won landslides because Mr Blair reached out to new supporters, mainly Tories. Labour took seats in Wirral and Cheshire which a few years earlier had seemed unattainable.

This time it will not happen because the Tory vote has been squeezed so tight already.

It is worth looking at Louise Ellman's Riverside in which only 34.1% of the electorate voted in 2001.

The Liberal Democrats claimed last week that student power could overturn her strong 13,950 majority if they focus on tuition fees and Iraq.

But Mrs Ellman is probably right in retorting: "They are kidding themselves."

The reason why the turn-out was so low was precisely because of the large number of students living within the constituency. The days when politically-aware students voted in large numbers are long gone.

More pertinent is that the lowest voter turn-out were in seats, like Mrs Ellman's, where the Lib Dems were in second place.