“Total” here refers to the total votes received by the highest vote-getter for that party that year; as such, the percent of straight-ticket votes is higher for everyone other candidate.

As you can see, Democrats cast more straight-ticket votes in 2000 and 2006, while the Republicans outdid them in 2002 and 2004. However, since Democrats collected fewer votes than Republicans overall, their percentage of straight-ticket votes was higher each year. I would consider that to be evidence that the Republicans have done the best job convincing independents to push the button for their candidates recently. In this sense, since most of the Democratic vote has come from base supporters, Ron’s statement is true – a majority of such voters have cast straight-ticket ballots.

Will that be the case this year? There are three forces that will act on the electorate, in different directions. I know for a fact that the coordinated campaign for Democrats in Harris County is going to push the straight-ticket idea, in hopes of ensuring that all those new folks who came out and participated in the primary will support the downballot candidates. On the other hand, I believe this year the Republicans will be a lot less successful in wooing independents, as national trends catch up to them in Texas, and those voters, many of whom may still support a Republican or two as they change their preferences otherwise, will largely not vote a straight ticket. Finally, I believe the local GOP, which has pushed the straight-ticket concept in the past, will be more aggressive about doing so this year, for the same reason the Democrats will be doing it. Put it all together and I think the net effect will be a smaller percentage of Democratic straight-ticket votes plus a greater percentage of Republican straight-ticket votes. I don’t know if the lines will intersect, but I think it’ll be pretty close either way.