Any way you slice it, there were 677,975 names in the hat. Even with 23 points, your chance of being drawn first was 0.078%. There were 35 tags and you could put in for four choices, but your odds are dismal even with max points.

Plus, max and max-1 didn't draw and only 4 out of 142 people with 20+ points drew. This is where you get point creep, when there aren't enough tags to clear out the people at the top and the number of names in the hat grows exponentially every year.

There are several individuals with maximum points who apply for points only, which may be part of the reason they have max points.

So, do you think the summary lists them as "unsuccessful" if they applied for points only?

The column is titled "Winning" and points only applications would not be considered a winning application.

That makes sense

So in many categories (less for OILs), a lot with the top points seem to be doing points only. Someone has 29 points for antlerless elk, and bought another point. In fact, only 1 of the 33 with 20 or more points didn't do points only for antlerless elk (and didn't draw Pine Mtn. Ranch fwiw). Plausible; still seems a bit weird.

There are several individuals with maximum points who apply for points only, which may be part of the reason they have max points.

So, do you think the summary lists them as "unsuccessful" if they applied for points only?

The column is titled "Winning" and points only applications would not be considered a winning application.

That makes sense

So in many categories (less for OILs), a lot with the top points seem to be doing "points only" then.

That is most likely the case. In addition, some applicants with maximum points have a bias. They are applying for the most difficult to draw hunts, and possibly only applying for one hunt choice versus multiple hunts.

Any way you slice it, there were 677,975 names in the hat. Even with 23 points, your chance of being drawn first was 0.078%. There were 35 tags and you could put in for four choices, but your odds are dismal even with max points.

Plus, max and max-1 didn't draw and only 4 out of 142 people with 20+ points drew. This is where you get point creep, when there aren't enough tags to clear out the people at the top and the number of names in the hat grows exponentially every year.

Everybody's odds are decreasing every year, those with higher points are just decreasing at a slightly lower rate

Any way you slice it, there were 677,975 names in the hat. Even with 23 points, your chance of being drawn first was 0.078%. There were 35 tags and you could put in for four choices, but your odds are dismal even with max points.

Plus, max and max-1 didn't draw and only 4 out of 142 people with 20+ points drew. This is where you get point creep, when there aren't enough tags to clear out the people at the top and the number of names in the hat grows exponentially every year.

Everybody's odds are decreasing every year, those with higher points are just decreasing at a slightly lower rate

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Applicants with low point totals have increasing odds. Someone with one point has one name in the hat this year; next year he will have four: a 300% increase. That's the primary reason overall odds decrease.

Any way you slice it, there were 677,975 names in the hat. Even with 23 points, your chance of being drawn first was 0.078%. There were 35 tags and you could put in for four choices, but your odds are dismal even with max points.

Plus, max and max-1 didn't draw and only 4 out of 142 people with 20+ points drew. This is where you get point creep, when there aren't enough tags to clear out the people at the top and the number of names in the hat grows exponentially every year.

Everybody's odds are decreasing every year, those with higher points are just decreasing at a slightly lower rate

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Applicants with low point totals have increasing odds. Someone with one point has one name in the hat this year; next year he will have four: a 300% increase. That's the primary reason overall odds decrease.

I would venture to guess that the 3 extra names in the hat is far outweighed by the 1000's of people who are gaining an extra 10 or 20 names in the hat.

Any way you slice it, there were 677,975 names in the hat. Even with 23 points, your chance of being drawn first was 0.078%. There were 35 tags and you could put in for four choices, but your odds are dismal even with max points.

Plus, max and max-1 didn't draw and only 4 out of 142 people with 20+ points drew. This is where you get point creep, when there aren't enough tags to clear out the people at the top and the number of names in the hat grows exponentially every year.

Everybody's odds are decreasing every year, those with higher points are just decreasing at a slightly lower rate

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Applicants with low point totals have increasing odds. Someone with one point has one name in the hat this year; next year he will have four: a 300% increase. That's the primary reason overall odds decrease.

I would venture to guess that the 3 extra names in the hat is far outweighed by the 1000's of people who are gaining an extra 10 or 20 names in the hat.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

On average, the total number of "names in the hat" for quality hunts increases by about 15% per year. Someone with one point gets 300% more points going from year one to year two, and thus gains ground. Someone with 20 points gets only 10% more points going from year 20 to year 21 (400 to 441), and thus loses ground.

Wow, I'm one of the 4 max-point holders, but it still doesn't guarantee me a tag. Thinking that I may never draw a moose tag in this state, I put in for Wyoming moose points for 15 years before I finally had enough preference points to draw there. In 2015, I cashed in my points and shot a 38" bull, which wasn't huge, but I took home 300 lbs of boned out meat, and I couldn't be happier.

Logged

NRA Life Member

"The people will not understand the importance of the Second Amendment until it is too late."Thomas Jefferson

Sorry, I assumed I had max since I haven't missed a moose application since the early 1990's, but I looked up my points, and I in fact have only 22 points. I am still not encouraged that I'll draw a tag any time soon.

Logged

NRA Life Member

"The people will not understand the importance of the Second Amendment until it is too late."Thomas Jefferson