Thursday’s announcement may have been a policy fix for the ACA, but a look at the numbers suggests the president, and Democrats in general, also have an eye toward 2014. Most of the cancellations affect consumers who buy insurance directly from providers rather than obtaining coverage from an employer. There are a lot of them — about 30 million — and they make up big portions of the population in key states with Senate races in 2014.

The Democrats currently hold control of the Senate by five seats, 55-45, and they have a lot of seats on the election docket next year: 21. According to ratings from election analyst Charlie Cook, they face competitive races in nine of those elections. And in eight of those competitive races, 8% or more of the population falls into that individual insurance market, with hundreds of thousands falling into that group.

The 2014 Democratic Senate/Individual Insurance Market Picture

Democratic Seat

Race Analysis

% and Number in Individual Market

Begich, Alaska

Lean Democratic

5.4% 38,000

Harkin*, Iowa

Lean Democratic

15.3% 461,000

Landrieu, Louisiana

Lean Democratic

8% 356,000

Levin*, Michigan

Lean Democratic

8.5% 826,000

Hagan, North Carolina

Lean Democratic

10% 964,000

Pryor, Arkansas

Toss Up

8.7% 253,000

Baucus*, Montana

Lean Republican

15.6% 157,000

Rockefeller*, West Virginia

Lean Republican

8.2% 147,000

Johnson*, South Dakota

Likely Republican

17.6% 145,000

*Not running for re-election in 2014.

Those numbers come from the Census Current Population Survey and they count all those covered by a private insurance plan purchased directly – men, women and children. So they aren’t all voters. And the numbers above aren’t meant to suggest that all those self-insured people will lose coverage or even that all those that lose coverage will automatically vote against Democrats due to that fact.

But if those races wind up being as tight as the forecasts, disaffected voters who buy their own insurance coverage could wind up being a crucial voting bloc.

There are bound to be tens of thousands of people in those states that received cancellation notices from their insurance companies or that end up having to buy new, more comprehensive and more expensive policies. That could work strongly against Democrats in those states.

Click on the image to see full size.

Likely aware of that fact, some of those same Democratic senators responded to the ACA’s canceled policy problem directly. Sen. Mary Landrieu of Louisiana has introduced a bill that would reinstate those plans. Cosponsors included Sens. Mark Pryor of Arkansas and Kay Hagan of North Carolina. All those senators’ names are on the chart above.

And when you look at those nine races above, the problems with the ACA and the self-insured represent just another challenge on top of others the Democrats have in holding these seats.

In seven of those nine competitive races, the states voted for Mr. Romney in 2012 – all except for Iowa and Michigan. So these are not strong Democratic states. And remember this class of senators was last elected in 2008, in the big wave of support the brought Mr. Obama to office. They won’t have the coattails of a strong presidential candidate to ride in 2014.

Of course, a year is a long time and feelings could change about the ACA before next November. And many of the nine states listed above also have large numbers of uninsured. In almost every case (all except Iowa) there are more uninsured, who theoretically stand to gain under the ACA by getting insurance than there are consumers who buy insurance themselves and might be angry about losing their policies.

The Uninsured in Key 2014 Democrat-Held Senate Seats

State

Number Uninsured

Alaska

134,000

Iowa

306,000

Louisiana

819,000

Michigan

1,060,000

North Carolina

1,658,000

Arkansas

535,000

Montana

181,000

West Virginia

264,000

South Dakota

119,000

But for now it’s those buying plans on the individual market that are taking the hit, and it’s unclear whether Mr. Obama’s proposal this week will fix their concerns. Already, insurance commissioners in Washington State and Arkansas have indicated they are skeptical president’s proposed one-year extension of current plans.

And even if most states go along, it’s not clear whether a one-year extension will satisfy the millions of voters who thought they wouldn’t be affected by the ACA. They could be motivated to vote next year.

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Washington Wire is one of the oldest standing features in American journalism. Since the Wire launched on Sept. 20, 1940, the Journal has offered readers an informal look at the capital. Now online, the Wire provides a succession of glimpses at what’s happening behind hot stories and warnings of what to watch for in the days ahead. The Wire is led by Reid J. Epstein, with contributions from the rest of the bureau. Washington Wire now also includes Think Tank, our home for outside analysis from policy and political thinkers.