It seems counterintuitive. Last week’s projection by the nonpartisan Legislative Analyst’s Office of state budget surpluses of up to $10 billion in the coming years ought to be cause for celebration, right? After all, it marks a remarkable turnaround from years of dreary budget deficits.

This week’s survey from the Field Poll shows an historic first: A majority of California residents now say they support the idea of legalizing the recreational use of marijuana. This comes almost 18 years after the state’s voters approved Proposition 215, which legalized the medicinal use of marijuana upon the recommendation of a physician.

And it’s just three years since voters narrowly rejected a ballot measure to legalize recreational use.

If that trend, as measured by Field, is accurate, California could join Colorado and Washington in rolling back criminal statutes. Part of this seems to be a growing acceptance of the idea that law enforcement’s efforts to crack down on pot sales and use have been expensive and ineffective. Part of it has to do with the idea that government should simply regulate and tax it, as it does with alcohol sales.

Of four measures submitted to the California Attorney General for review, only one has been issued a title and summary, which clears the way for signature-gathering.

That measure would require the Legislature to adopt laws to license and tax commercial sales, would limit testing for marijuana for employment or insurance purposes, and would open the door to releasing people from jail or prison if they are being held on nonviolent charges involving marijuana.

But there’s a long way to go before we know what voters will see on the ballot just less than a year from now.

It’s unclear, for example, if the measure’s backers can raise the money needed to collect the half-million required signatures by late February. It’s also unclear whether any of the other measures would qualify as well. If so, voters would face a dueling initiatives scenario.

Law enforcement and religious groups would likely mobilize, as they did during the 2010 campaign, to defeat the measures or measures.

If it gets to that point, the actual details of these proposals will be what matters. In other words, survey respondents may say they support the idea of decriminalization. But would they vote for a measure that allows a doctor to approve marijuana for anyone, regardless of age?

Pot proponents may be cheering this week’s Field Poll. But there is still a long and bumpy road between now and Election Day 2014.

Author Kevin Riggs is an Emmy-winning former political reporter for KCRA-TV. He is now the station’s political analyst and Senior Vice President at Randle Communications.