Pac-12 expansion: The case for the Oklahoma schools

8:45 p.m. update: If this espn.com report is accurate, Big 12 politics may bottle things up for a period of time (days? weeks?). And if Texas is, in fact, one of the teams trying to force Oklahoma into staying put, it would seem to support the notion that UT desperately wants to keep the Big 12 viable. That conference is a 24/7 circus.

Barring breaking news, this will probably be my final realignment-related post of the week because, well, I’ve got a top-10 team to cover (Stanford) and a cross-country trip to make (Durham).

But I wanted to flush out a few items than have been addressed on the Hotline this week — to explain, best I can, the Pac-12’s approach to the Oklahoma situation.

Before we get deep into Bedlam matters, however, let me say, for the record, that I have no idea what’s going to happen — and I don’t think anybody does, including Pac-12 commish Larry Scott and Texas AD DeLoss Dodds.

I think there’s a decent chance the Big 12 could stay together in some fashion and I think there’s a decent chance Texas could be in the Pac-16 by the end of next week …

Or the Big 12 could shatter in days with the Longhorns declaring football independence.

I don’t how it will end, but of this I am as close to certain as you can be (at least on matters with so many potential pitfalls):

If the Oklahoma schools officially apply for membership to the Pac-12 … and there are many steps between here and there, let’s not forget … then they’ll be admitted into the conference regardless of what Texas does.

In other words: The Pac-12 is willing to become the Pac-14 without knowing when it would become the Pac-16 — or knowing the ID of the 15th and 16th teams.

And here’s why:

*** Yes, the dynamics at the presidential level have changed.

In the spring of 2010, the Pac-10 CEOs were hungry for growth — they wanted to get bigger, they wanted to get richer, they wanted to catch up, and overtake, their BCS peers.

In the fall of 2011, that mission has been accomplished and the Pac-12 CEOs have very little appetite for growth. They are fat with the richest TV contract in college sports history and have their own national and regional network, which will eventually a cash cows.

However, the CEOs will eat if they must.

*** Scott’s view, best I can tell from talking to sources, is that the moment one of the 12-team leagues goes to 13, the era of the super-conference is upon us because there’s no way that league is stopping at 13 — it will expand to 14 and likely 16.

The Pac-12 won’t be the first to 13. No chance of that.

But if the SEC goes to 13 — and it will if/when the legal issues are resolved — then the Pac-12 will take the approach that the SEC is headed to 16 and the Big Ten will expand to at least 14 (and possibly 16) when its current TV deal is up in a few years.

And looking at that landscape … with the SEC headed to 16 and the Big Ten to 14 or more … the Pac-12 CEOs would be willing to expand again.

*** They don’t want to be the Pac-14 right now, but they’d accept the Oklahoma schools and become the Pac-14 in order to protect the conference down the road — to give it the size and power to compete with the expanded SEC and Big Ten.

If the CEOs were to pass on OU and OSU now — especially if they were to pass on a football brand as powerful and lucrative as Oklahoma’s — there’s no guarantee they could get them later.

At least, that’s my sense of how the Pac-12’s power brokers are approaching the current situation.

*** And if Oklahoma and OSU were to climb aboard in the next few days or weeks, then Scott would take the time to make sure Texas is off the table … and then he’d move on.

How long he’d wait for Texas to decide its future, I have no idea. But eventually the Pac-14 would examine other options for its 15th and 16th teams. (The league has probably done some of that legwork already.)

Without question, Kansas and Kansas State would be given serious consideration — and those schools would know they were receiving serious consideration, thus delaying a possible move to the Big East.

Guessing along with Scott is a risky, risky venture, but I think he thinks the Kansas basketball brand is strong enough to offset the weak football brand … and strong enough to haul KSU along with it.

Then again, it’s possible the conference would stop at 14.

*** How long will it take?

If and when A&M officially joins the SEC, the power brokers at Texas and Oklahoma (and the Big 12 and ESPN) would have to do some serious thinking/negotiating … and then the Oklahoma schools would have to apply for Pac-12 membership … and Scott would have to get his CEOs on board … and then Texas would have to make a decision on its future … and then maybe some more negotiating …

Jon Wilner

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KSUfan… I don’t know how to make this more clear for you. the Kansas board of regents statements mean NOTHING. What do you expect them to say? Start burning bridges before any action has even taken place? NO… Kansas is not married to KSU and the Jayhawks Chancellor has made that very very clear. Should the crap hit the fan, its every man for himself, and KSU is seriously on the outside looking in. I admire your passion for your school but that won’t be enough… Stack up the numbers anyway you like, you’re not on par with the flagship institution of that state Kansas. Your all time series vs kansas in football is shockingly sad. Your bball program is not exactly eye popping, even though Frank Martin has somewhat revived it the last 4-5 years, its still not enough. Kansas makes the 3rd most money in the Big 12 behind only Texas and Oklahoma..KU is an AAU university…KSU is not…. KSU for intents and purposes, doesn’t really have an argument. and once again, regardless of the board of regents, there is no marriage… Kansas will go without you..

Not Hugo

Hugo

Texas Tech has a 68% acceptance rate. Sorry you didn’t get in. Get over it dude.

Jon in Colorado

I’m a bit surprised with the complete ignorance of many on this board in regard to Texas Tech. I appreciate a few posters here actually trying to set the record straight — but it still surprises me to see blatantly ignorant “off the cuff” statements. You really can’t compare Tech academically with Stanford. By the same token, you really can’t compare Tech academically to OkState. Heck, I’d be careful if I was an Arizona State, Oregon State, Washington State, etc. fan. Tech’s academic rise has surpassed those and many many other schools — including Tennessee, LSU, etc… Tech has a med schools (campuses all over Texas), law school, and the fastest growing graduate school in the SW. No, Texas Tech is not a traditional academic powerhouse (it was formed in 1923). But, anyone in academia understands and respects Tech’s growth and knows where Tech will be in just a few years. It is just unfortunate to see the enlightened left coasters making such ignorant comments.

On the athletic front, I think Tech will not only hold their own in a PAC16, but will likely excel.

Jon in Colorado

P.S. — the TTU alumni base is largely in the metroplex (nearly 8 million people). It is the largest alumni association in the metroplex, besting UT, OU, and OkState. Do some research quick on most viewed college football games — on ESPN and on networks. You will see Texas Tech’s name pop up numerous times. Tech will be a LOT of television stations. In addition, Tech is a top-25 selling NATIONAL brand. It would be one of the highest selling brands in the PAC16.

It is absolute folly to say that Tech has no independent merit and would bring nothing to the table. Of course, Tech doesn’t bring as much as UT, but it brings a significant amount to the PAC16, that would dwarf some existing conference members.

Jon in Denver

Also, for those of you that need SOME evidence — take a look at this — and then tell me TTU isn’t marching forward academically faster than most and will likely meet some pretty lofty goals sooner rather than later. Where would that leave Oregon State? Arizona State? Washington State? Maybe even Utah and Colorado in the PAC16? There are fine institutions in the PAC16 — but lets face it, as is, TTU would come in and instantly be in the mid part of the conference WITHOUT further improvement.http://today.ttu.edu/2011/06/texas-tech-ranks-among-top-fundraising-institutions/

brett

I am still waiting from existing Pac fans, to hear how Okie Lite, Lubbock, or Manhattan ADD to the Pac 12-14-64? Honest question. Are they just the baggage you NEED to take to get OU, UT or KU??? THOSE I can see in one form or another. The first three? Won’t add much in athletics, about 0 NC’s near as I can tell, nor will they ADD in academics, although I’m sure they are fine schools in their own right, for what their state needs from them, but hardly “world class”. Anyboy care to enlighten me? Thanks!

OskiMD

You can say all you want about TT’s base in DFW and across TX, but the fact is that no one in DFW besides TT alums are watching TT. DFW, and TX, is all about the Longhorns and everyone knows it.

TT, OK St, and the Kansas schools should not even be entertained as potential candidates. Don’t let Larry Scott’s personal ambitions blind you to those disastrous ‘candidates’.

DON’T FORGET: IT’S EASY TO ADD MEMBERS AND NOT SO EASY TO GET RID OF THEM LATER.

The only schools that should be even considered are OU and UT as a package deal. Mizzou and A&M would be solid additions but obviously are not likely since they seem destined for the SEC. No one else. If OU and UT don’t like it, then they can beg the Big 10 or SEC to let them in with their hanger-ons (which neither will apparently agree to).

In the end, the PAC should NOT continue to undervalue themselves and ruin the conference by adding subpar institutions. And sorry newcomers and johnny come latelys, but OSU is a founding member and WSU one of the oldest members of our conference and consequently they have an inherent value to the PAC that you all don’t.

ccrider55

Brett:

OkSU has about half of all the NC’s won by schools in the Big 12.

Unbelievable

OskiMD — wow, you are truly disillusioned. As someone that lived in the metroplex for 10 years (still own a home in Lake Highlands part of Dallas) I can 100% tell you that DFW is pretty big on Texas Tech — even beyond the alums. Ratings are high. Games are played in bars and locations throughout the city. Unaffiliated businesses fly the Double T flags across the area. TTU is a big business in the metroplex — probably one of the reasons why TTU is one of the top-25 national selling brands. You also may want to check out some TV ratings before you talk. Tech has been involved in some of the highest rated regular season and bowl games. Those games did not necessarily involve any other Texas team (including an ESPN bowl record). You may want to do a bit of research or think a bit before you talk.

Plus, since 2003, TTU has the 15th best college football record, has the 4th longest bowl streak in the country, has appeared in 34 bowls, 17th overall… lets face it, TTU bring quite a bit of merit and money, outside of its tie with Texas. It is just too bad you don’t know the facts (or, appear to care to know the facts).

brett

@rider

Please accept my apologies, I totally discounted the OSU Wrestling program and it’s proud heritage!! But, I doubt if that, seeing as the Pac 12 only has 3 schools offering wrestling, or the occasional success in golf or cross country will be behind any support for expansion.

I should have been more clear in dismissing the Olympic Sports, etc. from consideration.

7r3y3r

@Brett
I seriously doubt Larry Scott is advocating for the Pac-1* to take TT, KSU, or OkSU by themselves. Each is being entertained because word is that you have to take them to get their more desired sister school. Otherwise, I bet Scott would want to take OU, UT, KU, and Mizzou. UT, KU, and Mizzou are AAU schools and OU is on its way there. OU, UT, and KU are national brands (see post #86). Each are the bigger draw in their state.

This is not saying those schools have nothing to offer just that they don’t have enough to offer (i.e., bring enough viewers, athletic academic prestige, etc.) on their own.

Dave

7r3y3yr… Kansas is slowly and surely creating more and more distance between themselves and KSU. Their chancellor has already said several times very very clearly, that there is no marriage between KU and KSU, regardless of what happens. Seems like the Jayhawks are preparing themselves to act as soon as OU makes their move…. And I still think after OU/OSU the next two schools are KU/MU….KSU gets left out in the cold for obvious reasons..

alchemist

Dave:

If by the Jawhawks preparing to make their move, I assume you mean “Attempt to beg their way into the Pac if Texas decides to do something stupid.”

Dave

alchemist…lol That is correct. And I think they have a legitimate shot at landing here…

ccrider55

Brett:

To be clear, FB and FB alone drives the bus on expansion and selling to commercial networks. BB is a secondary considertion, However, do not bring up NC’s without specifying FB when talking about potential inclusion in a conference that prides it self as being the conference of champions. Olympic sports are a valued part of that, and will make up a large part of the P12(16)N.

I’m pretty sure the hundreds of athletes at each school, including many FB players, would take exception to your dismissing them. Also the affluent and influential alums that were not FB players, yet donate large sums, are not the people I’d be dismissive of.

Dave:
You are either a KU grad with a grudge, or have no idea what you’re talking about. KU is one school of 3 major Universities in Kansas. KSU and KU are an hour apart. KU has a medical school which gives it more prestige than KSU. Don’t talk about stuff you have no idea what you’re talking about. Either you’re from Kansas or you simply don’t have a clue. You’re so full of misinformation and hate, that its difficult to take you seriously. KSU people have outlined to you in plain English that KSU is on par academically with several Pac 12 schools, is on par with KU in academics, has great tradition, a great baseball, basketball (mens and womens) and iconic football coach. Last year we beat KU 13-1 in all major sports (including a Basketball win) as well as a football drubbing of KU in Lawrence. Not to mention the long term plan of adding the Billion $plus bio-research center and becoming a top 50 academic institution. KU was second in Big XII sports profit last year and KSU was third by a few hundred thousand dollars.

Apparently though you don’t give a crap. All you’d rather do is spew crap and talk about your odd love affair with KU.

Jack

Speaking of the Kansas basketball power…ask Cal fans how they liked being out numbered by a wide margin in their own arena last December. That was Cal’s only sell out last year and it was largely due to playing Kansas. That is the same thing for Colorado for all of those years while playing in the Big-8/12.

Dave

Jack, good point. I want that basketball power here in the Pacific conference. If we get Kansas assuming Texas doesn’t come to the party because they’re stupid.. And we add KU/MU coupled with OU and OSU we’d have both sports covered and arguably be the most dominating league in both major sports… And that is why I’m hellbent on getting Kansas…

Sure the SEC in football will still be strong, but the Pacific conference will give them a serious run for their money in top dog football terms.. And I’m not so sure we won’t surpass them, even if without Texas we still get OU/OSU and MU all top 25 schools year in and year out, and OU normally is in the top 5, and boasts a ton of National Championships in football (7 I think?).. And then of course, Basketball with Kansas is a no brainer and they fit in with everything else academically etc..

MoneyCounter

@7r3y3r:

Sure, Oklahoma is willing to take an equal cut in a Pac-14 or Pac-16. It’s more money than they currently get from their uneven Big 12 cut. That doesn’t mean they’re willing to take less money than they’re currently getting in the Big 12 to prop up Iowa State, Kansas State, and Baylor.

By analogy: You have a choice of a salary of $100,000 at a business that pays all employees $100,000, or a salary of $75,000 at a business where you’ll get the second-largest paycheck in the company. Does your willingness to take the $100,000 job where everybody gets $100,000 indicate that you are a equal-share freak, and would be equally happy going to the second business if you and everyone else was paid $50,000? Or is it just that you would prefer $100,000 to $75,000?

Even Texas isn’t opposed to the idea of equal cuts; it’s opposed to getting less money in the Big 12 than it could by leaving the Big 12. The Longhorns’ current revenue is pretty close to the same as it would get from an equal cut in a Pac-16 (including a regional network shared with Tech instead of the Longhorn Network). So if the Big 12 adopted its own equal cut regime, cutting UT revenue severely, the Longhorns would immediately jump to the Pac-12 for the better money. At which point the Big 12 would disintegrate anyway.

FormerlyfromKUMike

Its funny to me that KU fans throw their AAU status in as a potential bonus to the PAC. Funny because the President and Chancellor of KU sent out emails about six months ago BEGGING for money from their alums to keep their AAU status. The only professional school they have that is held in high regard in terms of research(this group includes law, medical, pharmacy, engineering, and architechture) is pharmacy. Both their Engineering and Architechture schools place well behind their instate cohort KState. Their med school is a joke….i repeat, A JOKE! Their research numbers are flat out shameful and would be laughed at openly by any of the PAC 12 schools. No one who is looking to hire high level new graduates looks to KU for any of their professional schools and quite frankly, their “little brother” KSU is more succesful in getting accepted to their post graduate schools than their own graduates are.

Couple that with the fact that KSU is better at football and baseball, and track, and volleyball….welll you get the point….KSU went 12-1 against their “rival” KU this last season. It’s clear where the future of this state lies. KSU will have a world renowned Agricultural Defense branch based out of their town with all scientists affiliated with the program commissioned as adjunct professors to the University. Meanwhile, KU’s Chancellor sent out a letter urging donations because they had received a warning that thier AAU status was in jeopardy. So ultimately, if this truly is a football move it would make sense to add a Fresno State or San Diego State or even a (gasp) Kansas State over a Kansas University that has proved that it is incapable of improving its academics.

FormerlyfromKUMike

Also, interesting to note that many of the folks, including the governor of Kansas, are KSU grads. I highly doubt we would accept Kansas before Kansas State….period.

ArkieCat

My real hope is that the Big 12 holds together and we get back to 12 eventually. Then continue to embarrass the PAC year in and year out.

But now, I’m not so sure I wouldn’t hope for the long shot that KSU would make it into the PAC so we could start embarrassing two-thirds of you pathetic jerks almost immediately.

if the pac goes to 16 team i think it should be 4. 4 team divisions
you play the 3 teams in your division and 2 from the other 3 divisions if you split them up like this i think everyone would be ok
1 2 3 4
washington stanford arizona oklahoma
washington st california arizona st oklahoma st
oregon usc colorado texas
oregon st ucla utah texas tech

alchemist

ArkieCat:

What was that? I’m sorry I couldn’t hear you over the sound of all the money and exposure my strong and stable conference will be enjoying over the next dozen years. The knowledge my alma mater will have a seat at the table in one of the big leagues makes a lot of noise, too. Could you please repeat that for me one more time? Thanks in advance.

larrichan

To admit Texas to the Pac 12 would be a huge mistake! Look at the history. The old southwest conference which was a very strong conference was destroyed by Texas and its politics and money. Now, the Big 12 is being destroyed by the same Texas. The California and Oregon schools have the money and politics to neutralize Texas for awhile, but would get shafted eventually. No conference should take Texas in unless they want a death warrant. As for the other Big 12 schools, yes. No conference could go wrong by bringing in the Oklahoma schools. I’m surprised that the Big 10, already getting a smart Nebraska that escaped Texas, aren’t jumping to get Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Missouri. That acquisition would bring the Big 10 back to the forefront. The Pac 12 and SEC should act quickly if they don’t want to lose the opportunity for some major power players in determining conference strength. But leave Texas out, or you’ll pay the price.

Matt

If I could interruption the Oklahoma bashing for a moment, I am an Oklahoma State alumni and I live in the Dallas/Fort Worth area.

First, I would like to point out that Dallas/Fort Worth is geographically closer to Norman/Stillwater than Austin/Lubbock. It is also a top relocation destination for our graduates and a major source of the OU/OSU undergraduate populations. Basically, the “Oklahoma” footprint extends beyond our boarders.

Second, Oklahoma is currently ranked number one in the nation, and Oklahoma State is ranked number nine. Both teams add a lot of value and respect to any conference they choose to affiliate with.

Third, as everyone in Oklahoma has publicly stated, OU/OSU is a package and will remain a package. All Oklahoman’s are fans, and MOST are fans of BOTH schools.

Finally, both universities are major, growing research institutions that are working very hard to improve. They are both consistently ranked near the top 100 universities in America. Academically, we would not be the lowest regarded institutions in the PAC.

Oklahomans are friendly people, and I think the PAC would enjoy us as members. In general, we are loyal, hardworking, and we always treat others with respect. I think the PAC will make a good home for the states schools if the Big XII collapses, and I hope the PAC realizes the obvious value of picking up two of the nations top ten football programs.

I’ve always enjoyed the PAC, and you have some phenomenal universities. Good luck this season!

7r3y3r

@MoneyCounter – That makes complete sense. Thanks!

Batman

PAC should have taken BYU instead of Utah. BYU has a larger fan base nationally and would have brought more brand name recognition and fan base to their stadium, butts in the seats. But, PAC did not even consider BYU because some don’t like Mormons and their values (stance on California Proposition 8 for one).

As to the idea of super conferences and Oklahoma teams in the PAC, it just doesn’t make sense from a competitive standpoint. I mean how many PAC teams have never been to the Rose Bowl as is or very infrequently? And getting to a NC game would be a killer. Now, the poor Arizona’s of the world not only have to beat USC, but also Tx or Oklahoma? Doesn’t the existing PAC have enough money and prestige already? I hope that the Big12 stays together and keeps its geographical and historical bonds.

More than anything else we need a college football playoff. Some seem to think that Superconferences would get us closer to that. Not sure that I agree totally since it really would totally separate the haves and have-nots. Unfortunately, the Boise’s of the world who run a great program and are a fantastic team would never have a chance. Yet, the Duke’s of the world who have never been any good at football would be part of the Cartel and reap an exponentially larger amount of cash?

alchemist

Batman:

Really? Like, really? This again?

Tell BYU to get a meaningful research program going, to start playing games on Sundays and to do something relevant on the football field within the lifetime of any player being recruited today, then we’ll talk about them being a better fit for the Pac 12 than Utah is.

pablo

The people out in California are not understanding the full picture of the Big 12.

First and you can check it against Nelson Ratings is that the DFW TV market belongs to Texas Tech. Most of Texas Tech’s Alumni are from the DFW area and constantly sets records for attendance in the DFW area. IE: Currently holds the Cotton Bowl Record for attendance just to make a point and had 80k at Jerry World. If Baylor would have sold their share of tickets it would have sold out.

Oklahoma and OSU is realistically the Oklahoma City and St. Louis markets. Has to do with historical business connections of how Oklahoma became a state.

Texas Tech has DFW, equal share of the San Antonio Market, a good share of the Houston market, Western Oklahoma, New Mexico and all of West Texas with the exception of El Paso specific. Texas Tech TV market share realistically would be 3rd in the nation. The PAC if they are smart would take TTU over OSU in a heart beat. TTU is also on schedule to be a Tier 1 university by 2013 and should achieve AAU status by 2014.

Eli

Yes, Pac-10 should have taken BYU instead of Utah. BYU has been a legitimate power player across all sports for decades, while Utah has just gotten there in the past 2 decades. The problem is the religion thing for the california schools and no sunday games for the basketball schedulers. However, it turned out pretty well for the Pac-10 anyway with BYU going independent. To capitalize on that all the Pac needs to do is make a contract with BYU to play 3 games every season.

DFW is not owned by TTU. TTU has the markets for all of west texas, as in the less populated portion. However, those 5 minor markets make up a market the size of Seattle for those of us Pac-10 fans here. As a displaced texan has been explaining to me, TTU has west texas, UT and TAMU have east texas with UT getting more than half of that share, and Baylor gets you the legislature and the politicians with a few exceptions. However, one of those exceptions is Gov Perry (TAMU). If the Pac could get UT and TTU they would get the main market share over all of texas, including DFW. Also, UT fans are everywhere, so market penetration over the rest of the western US would go up.

OK has the same effect on market penetration as UT, and OSU has a very capable athletic program thanks to Pickins. OU and OSU would be a very good grab.

Now, why would the Pac want to expand to 16? Here’s how the divisions would look like if it happens the way I think it will:

You would only play the opposite division twice a year in football. You have the state of California balanced opposite the state of Texas. These two states might be the only states that can field an entire Div 1A conference (other possibility is Florida). These two states also have the most recruits in the nation. This also has the every top 30 market in the western US, with every school contributing to at least one of those major markets. Finally, and here’s the most important thing: This would be a conference that UT can’t bully! Texas might be able to be in a stable conference in the Pac-16. Texas already destroyed 1 athletic conference, and is about to destroy another. Texas wouldn’t be able to destroy a Pac-16 that is based in California.