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Is New Jersey More Vulnerable Than Virginia?

Former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie and former state Attorney General Bob McDonnell are the GOP gubernatorial nominees in New Jersey and Virginia, respectively. Photos by Ed Murray of the Newark Star-Ledger and Steve Helber of AP

Deeds, who crushed two better known candidates in Tuesday's primary, was widely regarded as the toughest matchup in a general election for former state Attorney General Bob McDonnell (R). McDonnell and Deeds have already run to a draw once before -- McDonnell won the state Attorney General's race by 323 votes in 2005 -- and Deeds' moderate persona will make it hard for Republicans to cast him as the tool of a liberal national party.

Christie, who won a surprisingly competitive primary last Tuesday, led Corzine 50 percent to 40 percent. Christie has held a lead over Corzine in every Quinnipiac poll conducted since February but has never before reached the magic 50 percent plateau.

The numbers deeper in the poll are no better for Corzine. Just 37 percent say Corzine deserves to be re-elected while 55 percent said he does not; his job approval rating -- 35 percent approve/56 percent disapprove -- is the lowest it has ever been in a Q poll.

Faced with those twin developments, it would seem that it is New Jersey and not Virginia where national Republicans should be spending the majority of their time and effort this fall.

Right?

Not exactly. Like everything in politics, context matters.

New Jersey may look like a better opportunity but, in the words of one Republican operative with experience in the state, it is a "mirage".

Why?

Because Republicans for the better part of the last decade have seen polling again and again that suggests they can win the state only to watch the large number of undecided voters -- the result of the fact that the state lacks its own media market -- eventually side with the Democratic nominee. (Ask Doug Forrester, George W. Bush, Tom Kean Jr. and John McCain if you need evidence of the New Jersey phenomenon.)

Couple that with Corzine's demonstrated willingness to spend tens of millions of his own dollars on his past races and you begin to see why New Jersey isn't the ripe pickup possibility that some seem to think.

"New Jersey is still more Democratic with a big spike is registration from 2008," said Penny Lee, a former executive director of the Democratic Governors Association. "Corzine will have a better handle on 'machine politics', and it takes real money to penetrate the media."

Virginia, on the other hand, has far more reason for Republican optimism given its historical trends. During the eight years of President Bill Clinton, Republicans won the governorship twice while Democrats elected Mark Warner and Tim Kaine during the presidency of George W. Bush.

And, prior to President Barack Obama's victory in 2008, Democrats hadn't carried the Commonwealth since Lyndon Johnson in 1964.

"Deeds is a strong general election candidate, no doubt but McDonnell will run a hard campaign and the numbers there just don't favor us," said one well-connected Democratic strategist.

While Republicans are pledging to make serious pushes in both states, the cost of running competitive campaigns in New Jersey and Virginia means that they will still likely have to prioritize one over the other.

@Jake - I didn't realize you were referring only to the incident with the recruiter. However, that was not foreign terrorism. I believe the shooter was a domestic convert to Islam. That much having been said, our sympathy and prayers (for those who believe) should be with the family of the fallen guard.

Chris, I am having trouble understanding what you are saying about "historical trends" regarding the VA governors mansion. While the party opposed to the president has been in control for a while, the only shift that's happened is that it went blue eight years ago. Wouldn't the mansion need to change hands again before we can suggest a historical trend of the office bucking the president's party?

You guys have been blaming the media for misrepresenting you as long as I've been following politics, since high school.

Posted by: chrisfox8 | June 10, 2009 4:44 PM

********************************************

You went to high school? What was your toughest three years, 9th grade?

I hate to break the news to you, but 'following politics' is more than getting your daily talking points from HuffingtonPost and jacking off to Air America. I suspect a furious and outraged counter-attack from you and your fellow hard core lefties, but you are no better than the right wingnuts that you so bitterly despise. You cannot see any value whatsoever in any opposing point of view, you readily resort to invective and name-calling as an alternative to logic, and you seem to be incapable of any reasonable conversation. Your, take-no-prisoners, my-way-is-the-only-way, arrogant self-righteousness serves no purpose to inform the debate and only serves to encourage your like-minded morons to nod, drool, and chant, "yeah, tell 'em damned Rethuglicans." You and your soul mates on the Limbaugh-O'Reilly end of the spectrum represent what is terribly wrong with political discourse in this country. In sum, you are the problem, not the solution.

For the record, I am simply pointing out national security items I think will put Americans more at risk -- I don't want a single American killed by foreign terrorists -- even if that means I have to admit I was wrong about Obama keeping us safe.

A heavily criticized Department of Homeland Security Report on right-wing extremism that was released in April warned precisely of the type of violent anti-Semitic activity that occurred at the Holocaust Memorial Museum in Washington D.C. on Wednesday.

JakeD- what say you now. Your a sad old man who needs to look in the mirror.

So, no one knows, least of all Republican's, what their party stands for because the media has been engaged in an all out and rather blatant attempt to destroy them and distort any rational message they might have.

==

Ah, so it's the media hiding the GOP's "rational message." Which one would that be?

(1) Global warming is a left-wing plot to hamstring American competitiveness?

(2) Cutting taxes increases revenue?

(3) Bush kept us safe?

(4) The marketplace can be trusted to produce the best outcome for everyone?

(5) Private sector über alles?

(6) Gay marriage threatens society?

I'm curious. The GOP has owned all the microphones for years, had every chance to get the message out, how is it being thwarted? Vot nonsense.

Ann Coulter made some unhinged remark a few years ago about wanting executions so liberals would be "physically intimidated" from "treasonous acts." OK, Coulter is a shock jock and her idea of "treason" is pretty vague.

But we on the left aren't shooting doctors, the kooks with the guns are all on the right. It's the right-wingers who shoot abortion doctors, it was a right-winger who tried to shoot up the Holocaust Memorial because he's one of those birth certificate / teleprompter / Messiah / Socialist lunatics.

I hope the FBI is watching these people, I hope the rise in murders and shootings has these stupid sentiments marked down as real threats, and I hope that right-wing nutbars feel "physically intimidated" from acting out their idiotic ideas.

If you doubt Obama's eligibility to be president, go punch a concrete wall.

The Republican's face an uphill battle in getting rid of their wing nuts. Right now, the entire party is in a state of anarchy. The nut jobs, however, aren't really responsible, the media i

==

Not buying it.

You guys have been blaming the media for misrepresenting you as long as I've been following politics, since high school.

Then your party nominates truly dangerous, unhinged, and stupid people like Sarah Palin for the top slots and you roll your eyes in horror when someone somewhere takes note of the facts instead of broadcasting GOP spin as straight news.

You can take an isolated case like someone inventing (didn't see it, don't know anything about it) on the news, but the fact remains that Palin *is* a kook.

As for the races, I think this might just end up being a test of an Obamaless ballot. Warner ended up crushing Gilmore on election day (although this could have been predicted on polls) Webb won in 2006, but it took a terrible campaign run by the incumbent, George Allen, to win in a squeaker. The demographics are changing, but one very good day doesn't indicate a trend. Besides, if John Warner stuck around, he would have won.

New Jersey is one of the examples of governors in large states being unpopular. Corzine is falling victim to this. Now whether this trend results in electoral upheaval remains to be seen and New Jersey could be an interesting test case. Virginia gets to start fresh with two new candidates. Jersey does not, so this seems to be more an anti-incumbent trend than one against any political party. Besides, you can't ignore a 10 point poll deficit.

What is funny is that Gallup poll about Limbaugh, Gingrich, and Cheney shows that 17% of DEMOCRATS could not even name an individual as the person who speaks for their party. Democrats are most likely to name Limbaugh as the person who speaks for the Republican Party (18%). Since Limbaugh is not a popular person with Democrats, the frequency with which Democrats name him is no doubt a negative characterization of the GOP from those who identify with the rival party. The talk-show host is followed on Democrats' list by Cheney at 12%, then McCain and Bush at 5% each. Gingrich is apparently not on the Democrats' radar as much as he is on Republicans'; the former speaker receives 4% mentions from Democrats, compared to the 10% mentions he receives from those who identify with his own party.

"Come on drindl that isn't fair. Cillizza is just reporting. If the GOP has an edge in NJ he should report it as news, not spin it like the goopers would."

Yeah, drindl is being idiotic about this. CC is giving us insight into strategy, not cheerleading. Just because we think the strategy isn't going to work isn't a reason to think that the whole article is some kind of personal attack at us.

chrisfox8 - The Republican's face an uphill battle in getting rid of their wing nuts. Right now, the entire party is in a state of anarchy. The nut jobs, however, aren't really responsible, the media is. Now, I'm not wild about Republican policies, in general, but the degree to which the media is distorting them is flat out amazing. This morning, on MSNBC, this twit anchorperson, I think her name was Contessa Brewer, had a film clip where David Letterman called Palin a sl*t and said her other daughter was knocked up in Yankee Stadium by some baseball player while Palin was watching. Awful stuff. She had some talk radio commentator on and kept asking him just why Palin should be so upset. She turned off his microphone, disregarded his answers, and basically called Palin and unstable and overly sensitive nut on national television. And this was supposed to be a news cast! You are getting the same thing with the Post, MSNBC, CNN, NYT, et all. It's like they are channeling some left wing version of Fox. So, no one knows, least of all Republican's, what their party stands for because the media has been engaged in an all out and rather blatant attempt to destroy them and distort any rational message they might have. At the same time, these folk have climbed so far up Obama's b*tt, he would need to have a glass navel for them to see actual events. I don't much care for either party, right now, but the degree to which we are seeing a polarization Fox-Limbaugh on one side and MSNBC-WaPost-NYT-CNN on the other, is downright dangerous. The polls tend to show this, too. As wildly popular as Obama is right now, almost no one actually agrees with his policies or even understands what his policies are. The Democrats are as confused and deranged as the Republican's and you can start placing the blame with the news media, both left and right.

McDonnell's biggest challenge is going to be the fact that he really needed MacAuliffe, or at the very least Moran to run his planned "Pretend you're not a Republican or at the very least mention it as little as possible while lambasting the opponent as a 'typical NOVA liberal who is out of touch with *real* Virginia'."

That won't work on Deeds. It's argauble that Deeds' "Real Virginia" Bona Fides are better than McDonnell's. They actually agree or are similar enough on several key issues (like guns for example) that in order to hammer a tangible difference between the two of them, McDonnell will have to reach out to the looney fringe right he was trying to distance himself from.

In a sentence: McDonnell wanted to move to the middle for this campaign, now he's going to have to move right to rile the base without alenating moderates in vote-rich NoVA.

If learning from failure is to be the metric, it is clear that Obimbo has the most potential. His TARP has failed miserably, his bowing and scraping is sending encouraging signals to the enemy, his unemployment is above even his own estimates, his spending is record shattering, his change mantra from the bush years is abandoned, the bloody war is back with a vengence.

It can be noted that he has said many times that his position has changed, almost like an expiration date should be stamped on his teleprompter.

Although I'm a Democrat, even if Christie wins, it might be good news for the nation, as it will demonstrate that the future for the GOP lies with smart moderates, not lunatic wingnuts.

==

They've shown no sign of learning from failure, I doubt they're ready to start learning from success. All indications are that the GOP is rejecting its moderates and demanding ever more rigid ideological conformity.

the question is, has NJ suffered enough at the hands of the Libs to do a turn around yet? We poor dumb southerners have not allowed our state to be weighlayed by loony Libs. when we elect Dems, they are of the barely blue variety and they campaign by lying through their teeth about thier positions. this is, as you know, the only way for Libs to get elected anymore.

Posted by: king_of_zouk | June 10, 2009 3:01 PM |

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might explain all them there trailer parks.... that dot the landscape down your way. New Jersey is a suburb of New York and Philly. Corzine is one of the guys who made a bundle and bought a crib with moat in gated world. An early adopter. He is representative. The 2nd group that combines with the gated group is the inner city groups. They are not repugnauts. That leaves a smattering of rural farm land and a few folks more concerned about toxic waste and gay marriage than making history by throwing out the Democrats. The analysis I'd like to see is California, post Aunold.

I don't think either party owns deranged people. My experience has been that there are kooks on either end. Just because this particular blog is dominated by leftist kooks, does not mean that the party in general would recognize their support.

Who in their left mind would lay claim to drivl and chrissuxit? the reason they can blog all day is that they have no other responsibilites in the world.
this is an element of the new Lib world order whereby total misfits and incompetents can survive on the forced goodwill of other more productive conservative citizens.

Just look at the Dem leadership if you need any evidence of misfits and incompetence. their solution to every problem is simply spend more. and they can't even figure out how to do that properly. Talk about a three ring circus.

"I didn't catch who was speaking on the phone to MSNBC, but he said this kind of violence can be attributed to what he called "the Obama effect," basically racist nutjobs being driven insane by President Obama."

that's pretty funny, chrisfox. eventually it always comes out that the rightwingers are into all kinds of kinky stuff. Yesterday one of those televangelists was talkng about having s*x with a duck. A duck. it wouldn't even occur to me. And then there was Santorum and his man on dog.

You can tell from their rants that they're sick people, but you don't even want to know how sick.

Italy's Fiat is the new owner of most of Chrysler's assets, closing a deal Wednesday that saves the troubled U.S. automaker from liquidation and places a new company in the hands of Fiat's CEO.

so this is how it works under CEO Obimbo, who by the way, has never had an actual job in his life. Fiat, known for crappy cars, takes over Chrysler, known for crappy cars, leaving a carcass of debt to the american taxpayers behind. this new crappy company will be watched over by the new crappy president. perfect alignment.

Meanwhile the junk left behind will be foisted off on foolish repubs who are the only rubes patriotic enough to still pay taxes., despite the phony flag pins. The union comes out clean, the bond holders can go eat sheet. this is the new Lib world order. they are going to spread it around - the money, not the sheet.

Obama's transparency czar is using $84 million to build a web site that won't be usable until October, and may not be useful until four years from now. Obama's stimulus oversight guru, Joe Biden, says "people are being scammed already" in the disbursement of $787 billion. And, when asked whether TARP is working, Prof. Elizabeth Warren— head of the Congressionally formed oversight committee for that particular trillion-dollar project—says: "We can't disclose what isn't known.

this is what Libs do when they get in charge. nothing but spend for nothing.

the question is, has NJ suffered enough at the hands of the Libs to do a turn around yet? We poor dumb southerners have not allowed our state to be weighlayed by loony Libs. when we elect Dems, they are of the barely blue variety and they campaign by lying through their teeth about thier positions. this is, as you know, the only way for Libs to get elected anymore.

@drindl: when I was on FC one of us registered on stormfront and somehow got administrative access. He turned on the image tag and proceeded to post page after page of fecal porn, then sent an email to all members that the site charter had changed and it was now a gay sex-meeting site.

Chaos ensued.

They managed to wrestle back control but not before a major monkey wrench was thrown into their gears.

(I didn't take part, I don't hack. But I read it and laughed till the tears came)

The guy who runs the site has pics of himself at the PC and the window behind him is, yup, a trailer window. His eyes are closer together than most peoples'.

The Fix writes, weakly,
"Virginia, on the other hand, has far more reason for Republican optimism given its historical trends. During the eight years of President Bill Clinton, Republicans won the governorship twice while Democrats elected Mark Warner and Tim Kaine during the presidency of George W. Bush."

The Fix overlooks another significant change - going from two R Senators to two Ds - in only 2 years. Arguing that VA is more friendly to Repubs based on the historical record seems a bit shallow, given the significant shift in the biggest races in the state in the last couple elections. A more interesting analysis would describe who has more fertile ground in NOVA. Does Deeds have an edge, thanks to the 'D' by his name? Or does McDonnell start with a lead due to his AG tenure & 2005 victory - against Deeds - to win that job?

WHY WON'T THE FBI OPEN A CIVIL RIGHTS PROBE INTO GOVERNMENT-ENABLED VIGILANTISM AIMED AT JEWS AND OTHER MINORITIES?

This writer has been stalked and harassed by persons who have uttered to my face the phrase, "Jesus is the way." That's just the tip of the iceberg, as inquisitive readers of this blog may know.

Yet the FBI refuses to open a civil rights investigation -- a probe that I have requested in repeated personal visits to FBI's Philadelphia office over the past two years.

Vigilante neo-Nazis are stalking, harassing and torturing unjustly "targeted" Americans -- in Bucks County, PA, on the Eastern Shore of Maryland, in D.C. and its suburbs -- and in communities across America.

They think they are above the law. Could that be because certain powerful, secretive federal agencies knowingly countenance vigilantism in America -- and refuse to investigate credible complaints of harassment and worse that appears to be in part ethnically-based?

What is the role of a secretive federal "multi-agency coordinated action program" in fueling this hate machine?

check this out -- 3rd murder in 2 months with the murderer being a reader/listener of rightwing blogs/radio shows... this one apparently one of the birth certificate nuts just like we've got here on this board.

This afternoon, a gunman apparently shot at least one person at the Holocaust Museum in Washington, DC. MSNBC is reporting that the suspected shooter, who also sustained gunshot wounds, is James Von Brunn, a white supremacist born in 1920. Brunn has been approvingly cited on Stormfront, a national white supremacist website.

He is apparently the author of a tract called, “Kill the Best Gentiles,” which his website describes as “a new, hard-hitting exposé of the JEW CONSPIRACY to destroy the White gene-pool.” Brunn, a WWII veteran, also posted to popular right-wing blog Free Republic, demanding to see proof of President Obama’s citizenship:"

@drindl - Let's just say I can quote a few choice comments. My favorite being Hello. My name is Inigo Montoya. You killed my father. Prepare to die.

Anyway, I like your commentary overall, just think your opinion of Cilizza is way off base. Discounting a 10 point lead by the Republican candidate strikes me as closer to Democratic spin than Republican.

Virginia is going to be tough for McDonnell to hold. Both Kaine and Webb won squeakers. On the plus side for him, he nearly beat McDonnell 4 years ago and VA has trended blue since then. Expect a brawl in Prince William and Stafford counties.

According to a USA Today/Gallup Poll, most people don’t know who speaks for the Republican Party. A 52% majority of those surveyed couldn’t come up with a name when asked to specify “the main person” who speaks for Republicans today. The top response was radio talk show host Rush Limbaugh (13%).

oh fine. i just think he works a little too hard trying to find happy news for republicans.

look at this treacherous slimebag. ..

"Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL) now appears to have taken a bold step in the debate over the budget deficit: Openly telling a foreign government not to trust the administration in Washington.

The Straits Times reports that Kirk spoke to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank, and discussed a meeting he had with Chinese leaders. Here's the video:

"One of the messages I had," said Kirk, "is that the budget numbers that the US government had put forward should not be believed. The Congress is actually gonna spend quite a bit more than what's in the budget, and the health-care bill probably being the lead driver of additional spending by the Congress."

A request for comment to Kirk's office has not yet been returned."

They actually do want the government to fail. They want to kill healthcare for the rest of us so badly they are willing to take the whole country down. When do we start callng this what it is -- TREASON?

Corzine has not even begun to make his opponent known. He is a brawler and has lots of money. New Jersey votes Democrat, but nice that you can get excited enough to wet your drawers. I should thank you for not mentioning your child or wife in the article...

On a recently trip to China, republican Representative Mark Kirk (IL) told China not to believe the budget numbers put out by the Obama administration. Congress, Kirk told them, is going to be spending a lot more money than has been reported to date. As we all know, we are heavily indebted to China and keeping China's confidence in our economic system is critical. We know the republicans are not on the side of America. They've given us ample evidence of that. I believe they have stepped over a line.

Wordnet's definition of treason:
-a crime that undermines the offender's government
-disloyalty by virtue of subversive behavior
-treachery: an act of deliberate betrayal

Cheney undermines the president with his calls to Israel; kirk undermines the economic well-being of the entire country by talking out of school to China; and limbaugh advocates failure of the president and preaches boycott of GM products. Don't these behaviors easily conform to items one and two and combined become item three, treachery? Who can tell me when dirty politics ends and treason begins? Is there anyone here who believes the republicans have not crossed that line?