WikiLeaks: After visit to NZ by Randall Fort

WikiLeaks cable: After visit to NZ by Randall
Fort

This is one of the diplomatic cables
about New Zealand held by Wikileaks.

24 October 2008
Margaret McKean After visit to NZ by Assistant Secretary of
State for Intelligence and Research Randall Fort

During an October 9-10 visit to New Zealand, INR A/S
Randall Fort met with members of the External Assessments
Bureau (EAB), the Chief Executive of the Prime Minister and
Cabinet's Department, Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade
Deputy Secretary Caroline Forsyth, and officials with New
Zealand's Government Communications Security Bureau (GCSB).
GNZ officials praised USG efforts to improve intelligence
sharing, particularly with respect to imagery. GNZ
interlocutors acknowledged that New Zealand gains enormous
benefits from being part of the Five Eyes intelligence
community. A/S Fort's message focused on the increasing
sophistication of commercial search engines and the growing
number of open source analyses available to policymakers. In
the future, the intelligence community must find ways to
differentiate their products and provide value added to
policy makers, argued A/S Fort. He also discussed the issues
surrounding cyberspace and national security. Key issues for
GNZ officials centered on the recent Georgia/Russia
conflict, Iran, Iraq, Pakistan/Afghanistan, North Korea and
the Pacific region. End Summary.

Security of Public
Sector Computers is Key Concern

2. (C) INR Assistant
Secretary Fort visited New Zealand on October 910,
accompanied by other INR staff. Meetings with GNZ officials
included calls on Gregory Baughen, head of New Zealand's
External Assessments Bureau (EAB), working sessions with EAB
officials, a meeting with Bruce Miller, Deputy Director of
New Zealand's GCSB, and a a call on Michael McBurney, Deputy
Director of New Zealand Security Intelligence Service
(NZSIS). Discussions with EAB working level staff and
analysts from other government offices focused on the recent
Russia/Georgia conflict, North Korea and northeast Asia,
China, Iran/Iraq, Afghanistan, and the Pacific region.

3.
(S/NF) During his visit, Fort called on Chief Executive of
the Department for Cabinet and Prime Minister's Office,
Maarten Wevers, who manages a staff of 120, including
Domestic and External Security groups, the PM's policy
group, and Wevers also oversees New Zealand's intelligence
committee. Wevers likened his Department to the National
Security Council in terms of breadth of coverage and
responsibilities. He noted that EAB's operations are highly
compartmentalized and EAB reports are tightly held within
Cabinet, with few Ministers seeing them. He explained that
New Zealand's contribution to the Five Eyes intelligence
community consists of two monitoring stations; one in the
northern end of the south island, and the other on the north
island near Wellington. Wevers offered that the GNZ
recognizes that it is a ""enormous beneficiary"" of the Five
Eyes community and lauded the good bilateral relations on
intelligence sharing, including recent strides in imagery
sharing. He added that New Zealand was ""well past the
military issues"" of the past. A/S Fort hoped the additional
access would prove useful to New Zealand; the amount of
information and management of the information can be a
challenge. Wevers commented that intelligence and
assessments may mean something different to New Zealand than
to other Five Eyes partners. Often there are significant
differences with Australia, he added, as New Zealand is a
more Pacific country than Australia and the latter is not
always attuned to Pacific developments.

4. (C) A/S Fort
spoke about the challenges for intelligence analysts posed
by the rapid growth of commercially available analytic
services outside government and the sophistication of search
engines such as Google and Yahoo. The information needed by
policymakers is increasingly available outside government,
and the size of outside companies or groups is not a factor.
Smaller can be very nimble; the quality of the analysis is
key and the intelligence community must increasingly look to
match outside services and provide additional value added to
remain relevant, affirmed the A/S.

5. (C) Fort turned to
issues involving cyberspace and the Comprehensive National
Cybersecurity Initiative (CNCI), which will begin with the
Five Eyes and then move to NATO countries. Security is part
of the issue, but the A/S also stressed the relevance to
finance and defense. Even small countries can benefit with a
relatively small contribution towards equipment and
personnel. Regarding deterrence, he mentioned that there are
analogues to nuclear deterrence but the international
community is only beginning to think about cyber threats in
similar fashion. Wevers noted that the GNZ is seized with
the issue of cybersecurity, and f is working with the PM's
Department to protect the public sector computer system and
analyze the range of risks.

6. (C) In discussing the
Pacific and Chinese activities in the region, Wevers said
that China has recognized that their competition with Taiwan
is not helpful, but their foreign affairs officials are not
always aware of what others in the Chinese government are
doing in the region. Venezuela and Cuba are now coming into
the Pacific, and Wevers likened their interest to that of
the Russians in the past. A/S Fort mentioned that the
backtracking of democracy in the broader Pacific region
(Fiji, Thailand, Philippines, Malaysia) was a Washington
concern. The region is more fragile today than 10 years ago,
he opined, and urged a coordinated approach by the stronger
and healthier democracies. Wevers offered that APEC remains
an important regional mechanism and the East Asia Summit,
which includes India, is another good venue for raising
issues. Wevers added that China is only now realizing the
very significant law and order problem within China, as
people are making money illicitly without any sense of the
rule of law. The metamphetamine problem in the region can be
traced to China, continued Wevers, and the precursor
chemicals are coming into New Zealand and other countries in
large containers that are difficult to stop.

Meeting
with MFAT Deputy Secretary Caroline Forsyth

7. (S/NF)
DepSec Forsyth welcomed A/S Fort's visit, stating that the
GNZ values its contacts with the Washington intelligence
community. The twice-weekly CIA-Commonwealth briefings are
very useful, but the Five Eyes provides greater depth. She
added that intelligence reports go to the PM's office, who
""absorbs"" the paper. A/S Fort explained that the State INR
Bureau is relatively small, and therefore focuses on core
issues. Currently, Washington policymakers are focused on
the longer term implications of the recent Russia/Georgia
conflict and what is holds for Russia's future and adherence
to international norms. With North Korea, the Six Party
Talks are the central issue, but also Kim Jong Il's health
and possible successor. Afghanistan's trend lines are
worrisome, he added, particularly due to the link with the
Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) in Pakistan.
Pakistan's transition to civilian leadership is being
watched closely in Washington, noted the A/S. He and Forsyth
discussed Iranian nuclear pretensions and possible Israeli
reaction. A/S Fort offered that Israel is likely to strike
if the government of Israel believes Iran has met their red
lines; an Israeli strike against Iran would be more complex
than those launched against Iraq and Syria, he said. A/S
Fort added that the US-India nuclear deal was an historic
diplomatic achievement for the Secretary. Responding to
Forsyth's question, Fort downplayed Venezuela as a threat to
USG interests and characterized Chavez as more of an
annoyance with limited political influence within the
region.

8. (S) Forsyth praised the US-New Zealand
bilateral relationship, noting that the highlight of the
year had been the Secretary's visit to New Zealand and
onward travel to Samoa, which had provided a window into the
challenges facing the Pacific, particularly to the
micro-states of the region. New Zealand views the situation
in Fiji as ""acute,"" and appreciates USG support for the
Pacific Island Forum (PIF) position on Fiji. A/S Fort
commented that GNZ sigint had been critical to USG
understanding of the 2006 coup. Forsyth offered that New
Zealand sees an arc of instability in Melanesia, as there is
a great deal of money but little to no capacity to use it
wisely. The Solomon Islands are under control at the moment
but there are still significant problems in terms of
governance and corruption. The GNZ is weighing the necessary
structural changes needed to make a long-lasting improvement
in the SI society so that RAMSI security forces might
depart. Vanuatu is coping for the moment, she added, and New
Zealand is putting significant assistance towards
agricultural projects there.

9. (S/NF) Moving to North
Korea, Forsyth asked if the stalled progress on the Six
Party Talks was linked to a DPRK assessment that the U.S.
election aftermath might offer a better deal. A/S Fort
replied in the negative, noting that foreign policy
continuity is the norm. Oscillation is part of the DPRK
strategy, he added, and the current situation is complicated
by Kim Jong Il's health issues and the succession process.
Kim Jong Il played off the former Soviet Union and China to
his benefit and may be trying to use the U.S. in the same
way as the Soviets. China's role has been constructive,
continued Fort, largely because Beijing does not want to see
a nuclear Korean peninsula and the ramifications of a
northeast Asian arms race. The A/S mentioned that North
Korea faces a food crisis despite World Food Program
assistance. Forsyth said that the New Zealand high
commissioner in Seoul would be going soon to North Korea for
a periodic visit.

10. (S/NF) The MFAT Deputy Secretary
asked for A/S Fort's assessment of Afghanistan and Pakistan.
New Zealand has troops stationed in Bamiyan province and the
GNZ is concerned over the malevolent influence from the
tribal areas of Pakistan, particularly since the
international community has been trying to transform
Afghanistan into a state since 2001. Fort responded that
Afghanistan will be an enduring challenge for generations
requiring cultural changes. The U.S. is determined to be
more aggressive in addressing Taliban cross-border
operations, and is weighing the political costs with
Pakistan. Forsyth and Fort discussed prospects for the
Indian government to improve its relations with Islamabad to
ease pressure on the Pakistan army to fight insurgents in
the FATA.

Comment

11. (C) GNZ interlocutors
were pleased to have the opportunity to discuss a range of
global issues of bilateral concern. All meetings focused on
GNZ support for the intelligence sharing partnership and, in
particular, the singular role of Prime Minister Clark in
ensuring good cooperation. As of this writing, the New
Zealand HC based in Seoul has already returned from her trip
to the DPRK; we will try to get a readout from MFAT. End
Comment.

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