In Race for Mexico's Presidency, Populist Tilts at a Privileged Elite

By JAMES C. McKINLEY Jr.

Published: June 17, 2006

It is the fourth stop on a long, rainy day of campaigning, but when the leftist candidate rolls into the small coastal town of Tonal?in southern Mexico, the soaked crowd comes alive with deafening chants of ''Obrador! Obrador!''

The candidate, Andr?Manuel L? Obrador, gray-haired and slightly stooped, with a nasal voice and a boyish, freckled face, seems to suck up their energy, amplify it, and hurl it back in the form of a simple message. For too long, he booms, politicians, business owners and their families have gotten rich and evaded taxes while the working class has remained mired in poverty.

''The poor pay taxes on everything they buy,'' he says, cutting to the heart of his theme. ''Those of the pure upper class, the influential, don't pay the taxes.''

With less than three weeks before the July 2 election, Mr. L? Obrador, a leftist former Mexico City mayor, is locked in a dead heat with Felipe Calder?the conservative candidate from President Vicente Fox's National Action Party. After seesawing for weeks, all opinion polls now suggest the race is too close to call.

Win or lose, Mr. L? Obrador remains the focus of the election, a polarizing figure who has dragged Mexico's enduring class conflict into the light. In recent speeches, he has vowed to end what he calls ''the privileges'' of a powerful oligarchy that has dominated politics here for centuries.

His fiery appeals have turned the election into a referendum on whether the country wants to stick with the free trade and pro-business policies of the Fox administration or join the growing number of Latin American countries -- Venezuela, Bolivia and Peru among them -- that have elected populist left-wingers who want to assert greater state control over the economy and funnel more wealth to the poor.

But to describe Mr. L? Obrador as another populist promising handouts to get votes is to miss the most salient part of his message for his supporters. In their eyes, he is a reformer who has promised to stamp out corruption and make corporations and the rich pay more taxes. He has vowed to end the sweetheart deals for government contracts, to stop the government from bailing out failing businesses and to slash the salaries of top bureaucrats and elected officials, who make far more than their counterparts in the United States.

In New York City terms, he wants to dismantle Tammany Hall.

''This is the principle problem of the country,'' he said in an interview. ''Because these privileges at the same time impoverish people and affect the country's development.''

Mr. L? Obrador's adversaries and critics portray him as a dangerous populist who will bankrupt the country with social welfare schemes. They say he shows an authoritarian streak, ignoring laws he disagrees with and filling the streets with protesters if things do not go his way. They accuse him of being paranoid, too, seeing plots everywhere. Some biographers maintain he sees himself as the embodiment of the nation's poor, a Christ-like savior.

''He sees himself as the incarnation of the masses,'' said George W. Grayson, a professor at the College of William and Mary who has just published a biography of Mr. L? Obrador. ''He views himself, I believe, as a messiah to uplift the downtrodden.''

Mr. L? Obrador calls this litany of characterizations ridiculous, especially the notion that he has a messiah complex. ''Sometimes it makes me laugh, because there is no basis for it,'' he said. ''The only thing is I support popular causes with conviction, and to them it seems like I'm causing them harm. They also say that I am authoritarian. It's not true. I never have been. I'm a democrat.''

If Mr. L? Obrador's rhetoric is full of class conflict that rattles business owners and the middle to upper class, there is a reason for it. Poverty, job creation and wealth distribution are the most urgent issues facing modern Mexico, and the failure to address them has driven some 12 million Mexicans north to the United States.

About half of Mexicans still live below the poverty line -- earning less than $4 per family member each day -- and one in five earns too little to buy enough food for a healthful diet, according to the World Bank. More than 45 percent of the nation's wealth is held by the elite 10 percent, and that concentration may be even greater since most of Mexico's superrich do not respond to government surveys, poverty experts say. The gap between rich and poor has closed only slightly since the free trade agreement with the United States took effect more than a decade ago.

Tax evasion is rampant. The last official study, conducted in 2002, estimated about 40 percent of businesses and 70 percent of professionals and small business owners either cheat on their taxes or pay none at all. The poor do not pay income tax, but are hit with a 15 percent sales tax every time they buy clothes or other durable goods.

How to remedy these problems is where Mr. L? Obrador and his opponent divide. Mr. Calder?nsists that staying the course on free trade will bring jobs and growth that will help everyone. He has proposed cutting income taxes for the rich and businesses by putting in place a single rate, which he says will spur investment.