Caps playoff scenarios

With nothing but pride on the line in these last two regular season games, many on the top-seeded Washington Capitals have turned their attention to their first-round opponent and the chase for the Eastern Conference's 8th playoff spot.

If you haven't noticed (and I'm guessing you have), there's a logjam at the bottom of the playoff standings with sixth-place Montreal just three points ahead of ninth-place New York after the Rangers defeated Toronto last night. One person who's been driving himself crazy trying to keep track of everything is Coach Bruce Boudreau, who has been staying up late every night watching each game that could determine playoff seeding.

"I look at the computer every day so many times, thinking the scores will change during the day and if you ask me who I think we're playing, I have no idea," said Boudreau. "I thought it would be clear a little bit but I keep saying every day, 'Tonight, it will be clear.'"

Chances are, though, the Capitals' playoff opponent won't be decided until Sunday, the final day of the NHL regular season. Here's how the standings look right now:

There are literally dozens of scenarios that could play out these last few days of the regular season because of the overtime point system utilized by the NHL and the fact that the first tiebreaker for playoffs spots is number of wins, not head-to-head matchups. According to sportsclubstats.com, heading into tonight's NHL action there's a 47 percent chance the Capitals face the Bruins, a 22 percent chance they face the Flyers, a 20 percent chance they face the Rangers and an 11 percent chance they face the Canadiens.

"It's fun to watch to see these teams playing for their lives like we were two years ago," said defenseman Shaone Morrisonn. "We're interested to see who we're gonna play. It's tight, it's probably gonna come down to the last game like it has every year, so props to the schedulers. That three-point system makes it really tight."

Here's what I could surmise from all this bedlam at the bottom of the playoff standings:

Despite being on the outside looking in, the Rangers control their own destiny with two games against Philadelphia left. If they win both in regulation, they're in. If they win both in overtime or a shootout, however, Philadelphia wins the tiebreaker by virtue of having more wins than New York. If Boston loses its last three games, the Rangers and Flyers would be the seventh and eighth seeds in this scenario. But one Boston win would give the Bruins the seventh seed and the Rangers or Philadelphia the eight seed.

If New York gets three points in its final two games, the Rangers and Flyers would be tied with 87 points and Philadelphia would finish ahead of New York based on having more wins this season. Whether the Flyers would be the seventh or eighth seed in this scenario would depend on Boston's performance in its last three games. So obviously, all Philadelphia must do to make it into the playoffs is win once against New York. If the Rangers get just two points in their final two games, the only way New York would get in would be for Boston to lose its last three games in regulation.

With one game in hand compared to the rest of its competition, Boston has the most opportunities to lock up a playoff spot. But the Bruins' seeding scenario gets a little tricky because they have the least amount of wins (36) amongst the four teams jockeying for the postseason. So even though 87 points would likely put Boston in at least a tie for the final playoff spot, if those two points come courtesy of overtime losses, the Bruins would probably lose a tiebreaker to both Philadelphia and New York.

Montreal is the easiest scenario to figure out. With one point in its final two games, Montreal clinches a playoff spot. With one win, the Canadiens would not face the Capitals in the first round. If the Canadiens lose out, well, then everything gets even crazier.

"I'm paying attention, not to the point where I care who we play, (but) honestly it's just kind of exciting to see how it will play out," said defenseman Joe Corvo. "Just the drama of the whole thing is what interests me."

So if you're a Caps fan - or a player or coach for that matter - chances are you're going to head home (or to your favorite sports bar) from Sunday's noon season finale against Boston to watch New York and Philadelphia face off at 3 p.m.

This should have been said forever ago, but for some reason I forgot to post it:

Does anyone remember two years ago when the Caps were making their big run and the refs absolutely screwed them over in Boston (I remember a penalty on Erskine that was ridiculous that gave Boston a 5 on 3)? Anyways, if you remember the game you know what I am talking about, the Caps ended up losing 2-1.

It's weird how things come full circle, and how the refs screwed the Bruins over a little bit the other night in the Caps/Bruins game when Boston is now clawing for a playoff spot. The missed high stick call which would have been a 4 minute penalty, the first goal still being very debatable about actually crossing the line, etc.

Anyways, I just think it's weird how the roles were reversed two years later. That's all.

Aldred15: That Boston loss two years ago was the same game where Brash got a six-minute penalty late in the game (triple minor) and then there was another penalty along the way to make it 5 on 3. And it was the same weekend as we lost to the Pens I think in OT. Almost ruined playoff chances.

@joek443, exactly right. Everyone B*tchs about the Pens PP advantage the other night, when we were fortunate there wasn't even a review on the quick whistle as the puck was pretty close to crossing the line or the fact that we got a whistle at all.

There has been enough statistical and analytic information on the web recently about the Pens-Caps games that I have to believe that someone (Ted?)will force the NHL to look into it. Given the NBA officiating scandal, I don't think the NHL can afford to just look the other way. I don't believe there are secret meetings where the refs are given instruction on which team to favor. But there appear to be strong subconscious biases at play here. A lot has been written about such factors in the racial discrimination area involving subtle, rather than overt, bias.

good to see Gary Thorne doing hockey on espn even if it's just college hockey... read something on yahoo a couple weeks that Bettman has been telling the owners that he can more than double the TV revenue when it's up for a new deal after next year.

@joek443, exactly right. Everyone B*tchs about the Pens PP advantage the other night, when we were fortunate there wasn't even a review on the quick whistle as the puck was pretty close to crossing the line or the fact that we got a whistle at all.

Posted by: Sonyask
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They don't review plays to determine when the whistle was blown, because all that matters is intent to whistle. The ref could have intended to blow the whistle a full second before it was blown.

joek443: If the TV revenue goes way up, the salary cap will likewise. That will make it easier to sign guys like Semin, Laich and Green who are the next group to re-up once the group of Backie, Flash, Schultz and Fehr are taken care of this offseason.

One of the players agents I heard interviewed the other day said he expects based on this seasons revenues the salary cap will go up about $900000 in 2010/11. Its probably bottomed out with the economy last year so onward and upward.

I do hope the NHL does get a better tv contract or two so the Cap's cap is high enough to resign Backis, Flash, Fehr, and Theo -- yes, Theo. He has been pretty darn good this year and Varly a bit shaky since the injuries.

I know this is from the previous thread (or two) but I've noticed that it's our fourth line guys (like Stecks and Bradley) who keep getting dinged up and need a rest. Walker, who's also done our fourth line, is finally recovered from his injury.

I hope a rest for Knuble will do him good for the playoffs. Even if he's out for a game (for a rest), we have able replacements for right wing. Semin has functioned effectively on the 1st line. And Fehr has functioned effectively on the 2nd line.

I would take the Flyers. There is no way, Brian Boucher could win four games in a seven game series against the Caps. I know its about the team, but it starts with the goalie. The Caps would exploit him in a seven game series.

Corvo had an interesting take considering he's played against and with Green this season.

"Any time you're successful, it's kind of boring and people try to pick out your flaws as you're going along. It'd be easy to pick out for him just because he's not the most physical defenseman, but he's plus-I-don't-know-how-much and I think his numbers just speak for themselves. ... He's got my vote."

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who is corvo to talk about Green not being the most physical dman. Ridiculous. Go crawl back into your powder room Joe.

Dude...anyone watching the Isles - Pens debacle and see the Dupois interference non call on Cindys goal. Dude...even the Pitt announcer was joking about the interference call. Exhibit A of why the NHL will never expand...what a shame.

nothing will improve this team's character more than having to persevere through a round with the Flyers, or a Flyer-like team. If you can't beat a team despite having a significant skill advantage over them, you don't deserve to advance. Because it means you mentally caved in to a meaner team.

And if we lose to them, then its more proof that McPhee's vision is unbalanced. He'll need to address the grit issue if we lose to a team like the Flyers.

that being said, bring on the Flyers. It'll either toughen up the team heading into round 2, or it will expose weaknesses that will have to be addressed in the offseason. Either way, its a good thing.

Pittsburgh has been one of the grittiest teams in the league for the last 3 yrs. But its overshadowed by their skill.

If I had to nail down the Caps' "personality" type, its somewhere between gritty and soft. I think the only time we really play with any kind of true grit is when we're backed against the wall. I think if the Flyers went up 2 zip on us here at home, we would go into Philly and play 2 very hardnosed competitive games. While that's a good attribute to have, its not a good thing to only respond when you're behind. Sometimes the hole gets too big to dig out of. We don't initiate, but we do respond. The Flyers always initiate. That's how they overcome their skill gaps.

Like Philly, Pittsburgh and several other teams also intitiate the physical, gritty play. They don't sit back and react to the physical play of their opponents. Defensively and on the forecheck, you can expect both Philly and the Rangers to bring it from the drop of the puck in game 1.

As fans, we can debate all we want about which team we want to play first. As far as the team goes BB needs to (IMO, mind you) just get the team focused on their game and just go out there with the old Green Bay Packers mentality (THIS is what we are going to do and damned if you're going to stop us...).

i do agree their playoff experience combined with raised expectations should result in a more consistent effort.

But if you look at the way the Caps generally play, their personality isn't to come out hard every game and keep that effort going. They also have a lull right after a goal. Its a credit to their skill level that they can win many games despite uneven efforts. That kind of style is just harder to win with in the playoffs, teams do revert to their tendencies. I think they'll play harder but I don't think they can just shed all their tendencies. Its a legit ?mark imo.

you don't have to be perfect, you just have to be better than your opponent and quitely frankly none of these teams in the East scare me...

the pens aren't as good as they were last year, the caps are certainly better than they were last year and the series went to 7 games... should they meet again I don't think it will be that close, I say the Caps in 6

and none of these other teams can score enough goals to keep up with the Caps

and none of these other teams can score enough goals to keep up with the Caps

Posted by: joek443 | April 8, 2010 10:00 PM | Report abuse

you never seen high flying offensive teams get shut down in the playoffs by a good defensive team? I don't mean shut out, just shut down to where you're lucky to get 3 in a game. I've seen very skilled reg season teams get a rude awakening. Now what we have in our favor is we also play a nice blend of skill and crash-bang hockey by our forwards. That's playoff hockey so thats good. Lets hope they don't get overly cute and end up turning the puck over because of overhandling or overpassing it.

Not looking good for Ovie. Sure wish he had those suspension games back. He'd be the one in the points lead and probably the goal lead. He may not get either now, not mention it will make me sick if Crosby wins either.

I think the Caps are clearly the deepest most talented team in the East. But they aren't the most focused. Nor are they the toughest. And they don't have the best goaltending. To me, they have a lot to prove when the stakes are higher. Can they be focused when their backs aren't against the wall? That will be a true test for them.

He wear's #19, and IMOP, brings more to the table then #87, it just hasn't been tapped yet.

This team needs to evolve to fully utilize #19's potential. You see how well he carries the puck, sees the ice, how durable he is, absorb hits. He's almost at 100 points, and over 30 goals.

Back's mental state right has alwasy been 'to support' the best player on the planet, as he's stated himself before when asked why he doesn't shoot more often. Yet when he does shoot, you see he can bring it.

#87 makes those around him better, as does #19. But #19 is superior at handling the puck. When the puck is on his stick, he makes the game slow down.

The argument can still be made that Crosby is better, but what we can all agree on I hope is that Back's full potential is to be as important to ANY line as a Crosby / Malkin is.

What would the Caps be like if Nicky could anchor a line w/o #8, and therefore was tasked with shooting more? Skies the limit.

He wear's #19, and IMOP, brings more to the table then #87, it just hasn't been tapped yet.

This team needs to evolve to fully utilize #19's potential. You see how well he carries the puck, sees the ice, how durable he is, absorb hits. He's almost at 100 points, and over 30 goals.

Back's mental state right has alwasy been 'to support' the best player on the planet, as he's stated himself before when asked why he doesn't shoot more often. Yet when he does shoot, you see he can bring it.

#87 makes those around him better, as does #19. But #19 is superior at handling the puck. When the puck is on his stick, he makes the game slow down.

The argument can still be made that Crosby is better, but what we can all agree on I hope is that Back's full potential is to be as important to ANY line as a Crosby / Malkin is.

What would the Caps be like if Nicky could anchor a line w/o #8, and therefore was tasked with shooting more? Skies the limit.

We do know how Backs performed without OVi this year, and he looked great.

We don't know how he will do over an extended period of time however.

But all the evidence we've seen suggests he can be a 100 point producer without OVi.

We can only speculate. I believe he can be. It may take a few games for him to adjust, but he has the talent to be in the same conversation as Crosby and Malkin.

This is why I hope that next season, BB will let Backs become his own man. Meaning he doesn't have #8 on his side. But having Semin and Laich aren't bad options. So its not like we don't have other talented wingers to pair him up with.

Knuble/Semin, Fehr/Flash, Laich/Semin, there are several possibilities for Backs.

Yea, I agree with that, richmondphil. I don't mean to portray him as an ego-less saint or any different than most other players. I think most of our guys would do the exact same thing.

To sort of address floms' point, I do think that Backstrom is arguably the most key player on this team.

Additionally, I think that we need to get stronger up the middle. Playmaking wings like Semin, Laich and Fleischmann do compensate in some way for our center deficiencies but no matter what happens in this postseason, I hope that we find a strong 2nd line center for next season. Maybe we have something internally but it doesn't look that way and I don't know how much we'll be able to spend in free agency.

In the "oh, that's neat" category:
With 2 good games, Semin could jump to the 5th slot in +/-, meaning the Caps would have the top 5 +/- players in the league. It's not saying much, given that our goal differential is ginormous, but it's still cool.

Squidy kitty got a goal and Sedin got a point, so OV has a nice challenge for tonight -- 1 goal and 2 points to tie or 2 goals and 3 points to retake the lead. Score, OV, score! And Backis, get to 100 already!

Sonyask, Montreal still can be knocked out. Only in one way that I can tell. Montreal has to lose their next game, and the Rangers have to win both games, one in regulation, one in OT. If that happened, Philly and the Rangers would both pass Montreal. Philly and Montreal would both have 87 points, but Philly would have one more win. Same with Boston, by the way - if they lose both games in regulation, they can be knocked out. Of the 4 teams fighting for those 3 last spots, Boston and the Rangers have the least wins, which is the first tiebreaker.

I forgot to mention in the above scenario with Montreal getting knocked out, Boston also has to get at least 1 point. Also, Montreal would need to lose in regulation. These next few days are going to be interesting, especially with the back-to-back Philly/Rangers games.

Thanks for the comment and excuse my too-early musings on who gets knocked out of the playoffs.

As for the article this morning, I get that no starter has been named and both goalies may see time in the playoffs. Nonetheless, if Bruce started anyone but Theo next Thursday it would undermine the team.

Here is what would need to happen for any of the last 3 seeds to be clinched. I could miss some scenarios, but I think this would be most.

Montreal - get at least 1 point in the last game, or have the Rangers lose a game (reg or OT).

Boston - get at least 1 point in either of the last 2 games, or have the Rangers lose a game (regulation, I think OT would still leave an opening).

Philly - get at least 2 points combined in the last 2 games, or get 1 point in either of the last two games if Boston/Montreal loses out.

Rangers - Too early for this lol... they would have to win both games (or maybe lose one in OT and win the other), Montreal would have to lose in regulation (maybe an OT loss would do it, I'd have to see the records between them), and Boston would have to lose both games (if they lose 1 in regulation and 1 in OT the Rangers would still come out ahead).

I think I got those right, but I'm not entirely sure. Have to head to work, going to check back in later to see if anyone else can think up other scenarios.

I agree with Pierre Lebrun, it doesn't matter who the Capitals draw in the 1st Round. They are better than all of them and will defeat any one of their possible opponents. This is not arrogance, they are just far more talented than the teams in question and not a single one of them scares me even if their goalies stand on their head. I don't believe a goaltender on any of these four teams has enough of a supporting cast (maybe Boucher but he isn't going to dominate anything). As Lebrun said, none of these teams want to finish eighth and draw the Caps in the 1st Round. Other thean missing the playoffs that is the worst scenario for them. Frankly, I think the scariest possible opponent was eliminated last week (Carolina). The Capitals just need stay healthy this weekend!

The NHL needs it to be Rangers v.s. Caps b/c that would generate the most headlines and controversy (remember last season?).

As solely a Caps fan I want the Bruins, whose lack of an offense and questionable goaltending makes them the easiest team to sweep.

The Rangers would probably be the toughest b/c of Lundquvist. But I have confidence in this Caps team handling any of its opponents.

BTW the 5 playoff matchups the NHL needs (in no particular order):

1) Caps v. Rangers - Nice headlines last year, do it again

2) Blackhawks v. Red Wings - No brainer, arguably the two biggest rivals in the Western Conference right now; storied franchises in big cities who love hockey

3) Sabres v. Pens - Miller v. Crosby in an Olympic re-match

4) Caps v. Pens - and the NHL needs this one to go 7 games with a more fitting ending for the epic rivalry

5) Caps v. Blackhawks - I know I am biased b/c I am a Caps fan, but remember Ovie's most recent "controversial" hit? Remember which team it was against and what the result was for both teams? Yeah, this could get really fun!!!

*Could also generate great headlines if Phoenix goes far- you know, "the team that could"; the NHL's Cinderella; Nobody wants them; if the league retracted teams this would be the first one done in; and yet here they are, competing for the Stanley Cup...

Unfortunately, this is all probably moot b/c Bettman has proven incapable of marketing. The lockout is years behind us now and he still hasn't gotten better TV deals, so he fails and needs to go.

The Caps schedule since March 3 has got to be a favorable point for them. In the 19 games the Caps have played/will play since the end of the Olympic break, the games have been at an every other day pace except for a three day break March 21, 22, and 23 (but immediately followed with back to back games on the 24th and 25th); a two day break on March 26 and 27; and the current two day break (April 7 and 8, but coming off back to back games).

In the playoffs, it is usual to schedule the games with at least one day off between, and the deeper into the playoffs, it is not unusual to have at least one 3 day break (plus any breaks for ending a series early [4-0 or 4-1 sweep] and then off until your opponent, 'participating' in a longer series, is determined) in any series.

All in all, the schedule may have helped the Caps get into a 'game-day' playoff rhythm.