Get the first question right and the rest are so much easier. Get it wrong and the rest are insolvable. Thus finding the right subproblems is the key to solving the sustainability problem.

The first question asks "What are the critical subproblems? How can I best divide the one big problem into smaller subproblems, so each can be solved individually?" SIP has already mostly answered the first question since it comes with the three subproblems present in all difficult social problems:

1. How to overcome change resistance
2. How to achieve proper coupling
3. How to avoid excessive solution model drift

The analysis discovered there are two proper coupling subproblems in the sustainability problem. This gives the analysis a total of four subproblems. Here they are:

Subproblem A - How to overcome change resistance

There are strong forces resisting change, as represented in the change resistance icon. This subproblem is the crux of the overall problem because if change resistance is not overcome, the other subproblems cannot be solved.

Note the R in the icon. That signifies a reinforcing feedback loop. The analysis shows there are powerful reinforcing feedback loops causing the very high change resistance we see to solving the sustainability problem. Understanding these loops is critical for solving the change resistance subproblem.

Intermediate causes is the problem to solve. When symptoms of those causes begin to arrive or a few forward-looking thinkers spot those causes and figure out the consequences, unsolved problem symptoms starts to grow. This activates the Problem Commitment loop. This causes force committed to favor change to start growing, which activates the Forces Favoring Change loop. If the model contained only the loops below the dotted line, growth of the middle loop would eventually increase adopted proper practices enough to reduce the intermediate causes to an acceptable level, which would solve the problem.

But the human system is not that simple. A third loop sits atop the other two, silently lurking, just waiting to be activated. That occurs when known proper practices start growing. This increases anticipated loss for some agents, causing the Forces Resisting Change loop to spring into action. If loop amplification is strong enough, change resistance will be high enough to overwhelm efforts to get the known proper practices adopted. The result is solution failure.

Our analysis has discovered two possible systemic root causes of why the upper loop exhibits such high gain. These are instances of the two high level root cause classes shown. The root cause of why techniques enhancing resistance succeed must be resolved first, since this resistance also applies to changing agent goals that conflict with the common good.

Root cause analysis and modeling allow us to clearly see powerful feedback loops like Forces Resisting Change. Once they are revealed we can find their root causes and resolve them.

The second viewpoint of the source of systemic change resistance is modeled by the Dueling Loops of the Political Powerplace, as shown. This model is briefly explained in the Dueling Loops glossary entry. It's the main model for the analysis.

The forces resisting change emerge from the Race to the Bottom loop. Since this is a reinforcing loop it can become so strong it can overwhelm the other forces in the system. Only by understanding such loops in depth can we find their root causes and resolve them.

There's some good news here. Once the Race to the Bottom collapses due to resolving the root cause of change resistance, the Race to the Top goes dominant. If it stays dominant for a long time, this leads to levels of optimization of democratic government that have never been seen before. It appears that all political units suffer from medium to high levels of Race to the Bottom dominance. Once that vanishes for several generations, the human system can enjoy the cornucopia of benefits certain to emerge, as politicians compete to see who can deliver the most benefits to optimize the common good of all. The analysis calls this the Permanent Race to the Top state.

Once we've overcome change resistance we can move on to the other subproblems.

Subproblem B - How to achieve life form proper coupling

Proper coupling occurs when the behavior of one system affects the behavior of other systems properly, using the appropriate feedback loops, so the systems work together in harmony in accordance with design objectives. Here the two systems are the top two life forms in the social system, corporations and people. They are improperly coupled because the right balancing feedback loops are missing.

As I'm writing this (in November 2011) a political storm is raging outside. The Occupy Movement has occupied dozens of city centers in the US. The movement appeared as frustration boiled over about the excessive control large for-profit corporations and the super rich enjoy over the vast majority of citizens. This has caused high income inequality, the 2008 recession, and high joblessness.

My wife and I went downtown to the occupation in our own city, Atlanta, one Saturday. Chatting with the protesters for a few hours, I could detect no deep understanding whatsoever about the forces they were up against. This is normal. Then we marched to the capital and listened to speeches. Again, there was no deep understanding of the problem they sensed needed solving. There was only anger, wish list demands, and well crafted rhetoric. That changes little, I thought, as I quietly listened.

A few months ago I attended an environmental organization conference at the state level. It was small, about 70 people. Most had been working away on the sustainability problem for years, with little progress. That seems to have caused attendance to fall by half over the last decade. It was a silently demoralized group. Chipper on the outside, despondent inside. The national leader of the organization flew in for half a day and gave a speech. He connected well. But he had nothing new to offer other than another direct action campaign on the burning of coal in the US. It was going well because the alternatives have recently become cost effective. But the problem it solved was a drop in the bucket. And it was a drop in the bucket too late, considering how many millions of tons of CO2 coal burning power plants have pumped into the atmosphere. This organization is changing little, I thought, as I quietly listened.

Just yesterday I visited the Club of Rome's website. I was briefly a member of the US branch and tried to introduce the concept of root causes analysis. The folks were friendly at the international level, but I got nowhere. So I thought I'd see how the organization was doing. There on the international website's About page was this statement:

The Club of Rome is focusing in its new programme on the root causes of the systemic crisis by defining and communicating the need for, the vision and the elements of a new economy, which produces real wealth and wellbeing; which does not degrade our natural resources and provides meaningful jobs and sufficient income for all people. The new programme will also address underlying values, beliefs and paradigms.

So maybe my work did nudge the elephant. "Root causes" was not there before. But if you examine the site you will find no real analysis, no real root causes, and hence no significant progress on the problems they're working on. Just look at the above quote. One does not find and fix root causes by "defining and communicating the need for" a wish list of what you want.

The Club of Rome, the environmental organization, the Occupy Movement, and thousands of other public interest organizations are trying their best to solve their problems. Most sense there are powerful forces holding them back. But those forces remain invisible because they have not brought the right tools to bear on the problem. If those tools were well applied, they would come to about the same conclusions that our analysis has: that of all the root causes of the sustainability problem and other common good problems facing the world, at the very bottom lies a single ultimate root cause. It's the cause of the other three root causes. (This is explained later on this page.) If we can fix the bottommost root cause, all these common good problems will solve themselves in record time because the most powerful agent in the system will now be working for the common good of all instead of for itself.

That agent is Corporatis profitis, also called the New Dominant Life Form or large for-profit corporations. Because it's dominant and Homo sapiens is not, the system pursues short term profit maximization goals instead of long term quality of life goals. Until that changes the sustainability problem is insolvable.

Subproblem C - How to avoid excessive solution model drift

Solution model drift occurs when a solution model gradually drifts away from its original ability to solve a problem, due to the problem changing and/or the solution being watered down, mismanaged, etc. If too much drift occurs the solution can no longer solve the problem.

"Solution model" is used instead of just "solution" to allow use of the Kuhn Cycle. This powerful abstraction let's us see that all solutions to big problems are continually in danger of excessive model drift. Thomas Kuhn found that a field's attempted solutions to its problems started in Prescience, then became mature enough to be Normal Science, which established the field. But as time went by, exceptions were discovered the theory (the solution) could not explain (could not solve). The more unexplained phenomenon there were, the worse the Model Drift became. Finally, when there were so many things the model of explanation could not explain, it entered the Model Crisis phase. At this point the field was unable to solve its important problems because its solution model was broken.

Click a node to read about it.

That's where the world's solution to the sustainability problem is today. Until attempted solutions are based on a conceptual solution model that works, they will continue to fail.

This has happened innumerable times in science and business. The universal path forward is to declare the old solution dead, as The Death of Environmentalism Memo did for some in 2004. That terse memo declared that:

We have become convinced that modern environmentalism, with all of its unexamined assumptions, outdated concepts and exhausted strategies, must die so that something new can live. (page 10)

Ever since then, some environmentalists have been in the Model Revolution stage, where they are earnestly striving to create a breakthrough that will lead to a solution that works.

Once that's found the Paradigm Change phase begins. The task here is to sweep away the old paradigm, the one based on the old solution model that everyone had been taught and had used for most or all of their life, and replace it with the new paradigm. This is usually not easy because people are so habituated to the old paradigm. Even worse, they use the old paradigm to judge the new one by. Until mountains of proof emerge the new paradigm is better, this causes most of the field to reject the new paradigm, which makes it all the harder for it to become accepted and begin collecting proof it works. Finally, when the field has mostly accepted the new paradigm, it become the new Normal Science and the Kuhn Cycle is complete.

But the cycle usually take a long time. That's why the System Improvement Process made Model Drift a subproblem, so we can find and resolve its root cause and thereby accelerate the Kuhn cycle.

In the sustainability problem the solution model is the decision making model used by governments to solve common good problems. That is clearly in the Model Crisis stage.

Subproblem D - How to achieve environmental proper coupling

Finally we arrive at the last subproblem in the problem solving sequence. Yet it is this problem that problem solvers have started with first, because it's universally seen as the problem to solve. That one must start elsewhere to solve the problem is counterintuitive. That's why a problem solving process that fits the problem should guide your every step.

In this subproblem the economic system is improperly coupled to the environment. The right feedback loops are missing. Economic growth has caused the world's ecological footprint to grow so large its unsustainable, as this classic graph shows.

The advantage of framing the problem in terms of improper coupling is we can identify the specific systems involved and think at a high level for how to connect them with the right feedback loops. This transforms the problem into its simplest form. The right feedback loops will center on some sort of balancing loop, as indicated by the B in the subproblem icon. A balancing feedback loop seeks to reach a goal of some sort. If the behavior of interest is above the goal, as it is in the graph, the balancing loop put the breaks on the system it's controlling.

Putting it all together

The four subproblems are highly interconnected. At the bottom of it all lies the life form proper coupling subproblem. That problem causes all the rest. it's the ultimate root cause. Solve it and the entire problem is solved.

Let's trace the diagram. Since Corporatis profitis is improperly coupled to Homo sapiens, the goal of maximization of short term profits dominants the behavior of the system. This causes four things: the environmental proper coupling subproblem, the model drift subproblem, the change resistance subproblem, and the symptoms of rampant corruption, unnecessary wars, avoidable recessions, excessive income inequality, and so on. The environmental proper coupling subproblem then causes environmental degradation. The model drift increases subproblems D, B, and A because the political system's problem solving ability has been weakened.

Note the two reinforcing loops. Each increases social improper coupling, which makes that subproblem and the sustainability problem worse and even more unsolvable. The problem is a nightmare of difficulty due to hidden feedback loops like this.

The real complication, the one that makes the problem so hard to solve, is the change resistance problem in turn causes successful opposition to solving common good problems. That in turn prevents solution of everything the dashed arrows point to. Since one of these is the life form proper coupling problem, it has become nearly impossible to solve that problem. That's why the largest change resistance of all is anything that would reduce the power of large for-profit corporations, as well as their chief ally, the rich.

So how can we solve the sustainability problem? The diagram shows that if we can solve the change resistance subproblem, then opposition to solving everything else melts away.

(1) Regarding "the failed state phenomenon that about 58 nations find themselves in." See The Bottom Billion: Why the Poorest Countries Are Failing and What Can Be Done About It, by Paul Collier, 2007. This analyzes the traps keeping 58 nations in a dire state of poverty, political instability, frequent war, and low ability to focus on other problems like environmental sustainability.

The analysis was performed over a seven year period from 2003 to 2010. The results are summarized in the Summary of Analysis Results, the top of which is shown below:

Click on the table for the full table and a high level discussion of analysis results.

The Universal Causal Chain

This is the solution causal chain present in all problems. Popular approaches to solving the sustainability problem see only what's obvious: the black arrows. This leads to using superficial solutions to push on low leverage points to resolve intermediate causes.

Popular solutions are superficial because they fail to see into the fundamental layer, where the complete causal chain runs to root causes. It's an easy trap to fall into because it intuitively seems that popular solutions like renewable energy and strong regulations should solve the sustainability problem. But they can't, because they don't resolve the root causes.

In the analytical approach, root cause analysis penetrates the fundamental layer to find the well hidden red arrow. Further analysis finds the blue arrow.Fundamental solution elements are then developed to create the green arrow which solves the problem. For more see Causal Chain in the glossary.

This is no different from what the ancient Romans did. It’s a strategy of divide and conquer. Subproblems like these are several orders of magnitude easier to solve because you are no longer trying (in vain) to solve them simultaneously without realizing it. This strategy has changed millions of other problems from insolvable to solvable, so it should work here too.

For example, multiplying 222 times 222 in your head is for most of us impossible. But doing it on paper, decomposing the problem into nine cases of 2 times 2 and then adding up the results, changes the problem from insolvable to solvable.

Change resistance is the tendency for a system to resist change even when a surprisingly large amount of force is applied.

Overcoming change resistance is the crux of the problem, because if the system is resisting change then none of the other subproblems are solvable. Therefore this subproblem must be solved first. Until it is solved, effort to solve the other three subproblems is largely wasted effort.

The root cause of successful change resistance appears to be effective deception in the political powerplace. Too many voters and politicians are being deceived into thinking sustainability is a low priority and need not be solved now.

The high leverage point for resolving the root cause is to raise general ability to detect political deception. We need to inoculate people against deceptive false memes because once people are infected by falsehoods, it’s very hard to change their minds to see the truth.

Life form improper coupling occurs when two social life forms are not working together in harmony.

In the sustainability problem, large for-profit corporations are not cooperating smoothly with people. Instead, too many corporations are dominating political decision making to their own advantage, as shown by their strenuous opposition to solving the environmental sustainability problem.

The root cause appears to be mutually exclusive goals. The goal of the corporate life form is maximization of profits, while the goal of the human life form is optimization of quality of life, for those living and their descendents. These two goals cannot be both achieved in the same system. One side will win and the other side will lose. Guess which side is losing?

The high leverage point for resolving the root cause follows easily. If the root cause is corporations have the wrong goal, then the high leverage point is to reengineer the modern corporation to have the right goal.

The world’s solution model for solving important problems like sustainability, recurring wars, recurring recessions, excessive economic inequality, and institutional poverty has drifted so far it’s unable to solve the problem.

The root cause appears to be low quality of governmental political decisions. Various steps in the decision making process are not working properly, resulting in inability to proactively solve many difficult problems.

This indicates low decision making process maturity. The high leverage point for resolving the root cause is to raise the maturity of the political decision making process.

In the environmental proper coupling subproblem the world’s economic system is improperly coupled to the environment. Environmental impact from economic system growth has exceeded the capacity of the environment to recycle that impact.

This subproblem is what the world sees as the problem to solve. The analysis shows that to be a false assumption, however. The change resistance subproblem must be solved first.

The root cause appears to be high transaction costs for managing common property (like the air we breath). This means that presently there is no way to manage common property efficiently enough to do it sustainably.

The high leverage point for resolving the root cause is to allow new types of social agents (such as new types of corporations) to appear, in order to radically lower transaction costs.

Solutions

There must be a reason popular solutions are not working.

Given the principle that all causal problems arise from their root causes, the reason popular solutions are not working (after over 40 years of millions of people trying) is popular solutions do not resolve root causes.

This is Thwink.org’s most fundamental insight.

Summary of Solution Elements

Using the results of the analysis as input, 12 solutions elements were developed. Each resolves a specific root cause and thus solves one of the four subproblems, as shown below:

Click on the table for a high level discussion of the solution elements and to learn how you can hit the bullseye.

The 4 Subproblems

The solutions you are about to see differ radically from popular solutions, because each resolves a specific root cause for a single subproblem. The right subproblems were found earlier in the analysis step, which decomposed the one big Gordian Knot of a problem into The Four Subproblems of the Sustainability Problem.

Everything changes with a root cause resolution approach. You are no longer firing away at a target you can’t see. Once the analysis builds a model of the problem and finds the root causes and their high leverage points, solutions are developed to push on the leverage points.

Because each solution is aimed at resolving a specific known root cause, you can't miss. You hit the bullseye every time. It's like shooting at a target ten feet away. The bullseye is the root cause. That's why Root Cause Analysis is so fantastically powerful.

The high leverage point for overcoming change resistance is to raise general ability to detect political deception. We have to somehow make people truth literate so they can’t be fooled so easily by deceptive politicians.

This will not be easy. Overcoming change resistance is the crux of the problem and must be solved first, so it takes nine solution elements to solve this subproblem. The first is the key to it all.

B. How to Achieve Life Form Proper Coupling

In this subproblem the analysis found that two social life forms, large for-profit corporations and people, have conflicting goals. The high leverage point is correctness of goals for artificial life forms. Since the one causing the problem right now is Corporatis profitis, this means we have to reengineer the modern corporation to have the right goal.

Corporations were never designed in a comprehensive manner to serve the people. They evolved. What we have today can be called Corporation 1.0. It serves itself. What we need instead is Corporation 2.0. This life form is designed to serve people rather than itself. Its new role will be that of a trusted servant whose goal is providing the goods and services needed to optimize quality of life for people in a sustainable manner.

What’s drifted too far is the decision making model that governments use to decide what to do. It’s incapable of solving the sustainability problem.

The high leverage point is to greatly improve the maturity of the political decision making process. Like Corporation 1.0, the process was never designed. It evolved. It’s thus not quite what we want.

The solution works like this: Imagine what it would be like if politicians were rated on the quality of their decisions. They would start competing to see who could improve quality of life and the common good the most. That would lead to the most pleasant Race to the Top the world has ever seen.

Presently the world’s economic system is improperly coupled to the environment. The high leverage point is allow new types of social agents to appear to radically reduce the cost of managing the sustainability problem.

This can be done with non-profit stewardship corporations. Each steward would have the goal of sustainably managing some portion of the sustainability problem. Like the way corporations charge prices for their goods and services, stewards would charge fees for ecosystem service use. The income goes to solving the problem.

Corporations gave us the Industrial Revolution. That revolution is incomplete until stewards give us the Sustainability Revolution.

This analyzes the world’s standard political system and explains why it’s operating for the benefit of special interests instead of the common good. Several sample solutions are presented to help get you thwinking.

Note how generic most of the tools/concepts are. They apply to far more than the sustainability problem. Thus the glossary is really The Problem Solver's Guide to Difficult Social System Problems, using the sustainability problem as a running example.