I can't find any sign of the fieldwork dates yet, but judging from the number of people who mentioned being interviewed by YouGov a couple of days ago, it's probably safe to assume that the poll is close to being bang up-to-date.

So what can we take from the numbers? They're not necessarily inconsistent with the impression of recent days (derived from anecdotal evidence and from the Scottish subsamples of GB-wide polls) that the SNP have bounced back somewhat after a ropey spell earlier in the campaign. Obviously a 1% increase is underwhelming and not statistically significant in itself, but the standard 3% margin of error is perfectly capable of disguising a bigger jump. We'll just have to await further polls for more information. In the meantime, we can take great heart from learning that the first poll conducted after 4th May has completely failed to detect any sign that the Tories generated significant additional momentum from the local election results, and ate deeper into the SNP's lead. There was always an obvious danger that they'd manage to do that, and the fact that they seemingly haven't may lead us to wonder whether we've now more or less reached Peak Tory - ie. the absolute limit of potential Tory support, from where they can only stand still or go backwards. Put it this way - if the Tories can't poll higher than this when they're pushing 50% in some UK polls, when will they ever?

It's worth remembering that of the three polling firms that produced Scottish polls earlier in the campaign, YouGov reported the lowest SNP share. That may have just happened by chance, or there may be a 'house effect' at play. If it's the latter, it's possible that the next polls from other firms will put the SNP as high as 44% or 45%. The bad news, though, is that Panelbase also reported a much higher Tory vote than YouGov did, so there's no particular reason to suppose that YouGov are underestimating the SNP's lead over the Tories - which ultimately is the most important thing in a first-past-the-post election.

Which leads me on to the big nagging worry - differential turnout. If the SNP's real lead on the ground is somewhere between 10% and 15%, there's a risk that will translate into a sub-10 lead on polling day (exactly as happened in the local elections), due to the party's main opponents being strongest among the demographic groups that are most likely to turn out to vote. We're going to need a Rolls Royce get-out-the-vote effort simply to achieve a result that properly reflects the state of public opinion. But the more positive way of looking at it is that it's all in our own hands - the prize of 45 seats or more (an overwhelming landslide by any standards) is there for the grabbing.

The indispensable first step in that process is to make sure that potential SNP voters are actually able to vote, and time is running out in that respect. If you know anyone (perhaps a young person) who you suspect is not on the electoral roll, don't delay in making an intervention - they can very quickly register by following this link. But they have to do it by Monday evening, or they'll be powerless to stop the Tories in June.

40 comments:

I'm very surprised by the weakness of the Liberal Democrats during this GE. I had assumed that they were going to make big gains in England and modest progress in Scotland, but the local election results and the opinion polling all point to my assumptions being incorrect. I suppose that they could gain a couple of Scottish seats even on a lower share of the national vote, but they must be very worried that they are currently looking very unattractive to tactical voters: Tories in East Dunbartonshire and Edinburgh West will now be very tempted to actually vote Con this time, their first choice, rather than Bremoaner LD.

This is my thoughts as well. I'm surprised and the polls must be very disappointing for them, especially in Scotland where there was a large remain vote to gain from. Looking at the tables, they've only held 48% of their 2015 voters, with 41% going Conservative and 7% SNP. Damaged in those Highland and North East areas with large leave votes maybe? It's a sign that they will be nowhere outside of the four seats they are competitive in, and even in those they aren't certain to win.

I wonder how similar NE politics with its elements of Liberal tradition yet leanings to Leave would be to parts of SW England and Cornwall if the SNP didn't exist? (With apologies to any Mebyon Kernow lurkers.)

But the immediate thing is the 41% Lib to Tory transfer. That seems to focus things on places like Gordon and West Aberdeenshire rather than part-fishing areas like Moray.

As for the Labour vote in Scotland I think they'll do well to reach 17%. The question is, do those fleeing head for the Tory or SNP exit?

Not buying the Labour vote at 19%. Recent coalescing with Tories and Kezias out burst at Fmqs, will have dropped them below 15%. I suspect the Snp vote is nearer 46% and Tories nearer 25%. Still think we will get 50 seats and Tories 5. Other 4 will be 3 lib one Labour.

Recent coalescing with Tories and Kezias out burst at Fmqs, will have dropped them below 15%.

I think you are hugely overestimating the number of normal people that pay attention to FMQs and/or council shenanigans outside their own local area.

The idea that 1/4 of the remaining Labour voters would abandon them over something like that just doesn't sound credible.Apart from anything else, any remaining Labour voters are likely to be fairly die-hard, the fairweather supporters are long gone.

Short of large scale PV fraud I don't see the Tories polling more than 25% and a very bad turn out could boost that Tory percentage as well. I don't see Labour dropping below 15% as some still have tribal hatred for Tories and not just the SNP.

Oh and the Tory Holiday home owners wont be able to vote twice with an election also happening down south. There are a lot of holiday homes and holiday flats in several Scottish constituencies.

There are 15 holiday homes in my village alone sitting empty right now. June 8th isn't a holiday time for them either though. They are people who wont ever watch FMQs as Sturgeon regularly wipes the floor with Yoon politicians.

Aside from East Dumbartonshire and Shetland I'm not sure the Lib Dems realistically have a shot anywhere else, their UK campaign isn't going well and I don't see the ever "charismatic Willie Rennie doing any better up here.

Polling numbers looking a bit stronger again for the SNP though which is encouraging. I've had this nagging feeling that people maybe are getting fed up with the Indy issue and might be willing to bail on voting SNP.

The Tories biggest gain from differential turnout is from the pensioners. I think they have just damaged themselves with the pensioner vote in a truly significant way. Even though the SNP will protect pensioners from some of this through Holyrood, the Tory brand with pensioners is severely holed.

Why do people have to register to vote? Hoe ridiculous. Time for a proper population register methinks. Here in Finland, every adult is entitled to vote at every election. All you have to do is turn up with some form of ID and vote. No problem.

Most European countries have a proper population registration system. They mostly date back to Napoleonic times. People I've spoken to like them. They don't feel the system has been abused and they like the convenience. They just have to notify a change of address or something like that once, and the system takes care of the rest.

Unfortunately that very system is what has become demonised in Britain as "identity cards". It seems to be perfectly benign and convenient to those who use it, but it's bad scary Nazis to people here.

People here have experience of governments here Rolfe. What happens in other countries and how their informed public react to how, in practice, those systems operate for them, is neither here nor there. We have the our own history and detailed knowledge of exactly how our state tends to operate (even if not against us this time). 300 years of empire mindset and the cruel dishonest and grasping subjugation of a large part of the world population has correctly left the average UK citizen wary of giving up all vestiges of private control of personal information to the state. European experience of fascism is a smokescreen in this respect. Its been the actual day to day experience of continued British imperial fascism that is behind the public attitude you are identifying. Hence identity cards being removed by privately fought court case after the war and Winston Churchill (war hero) being removed from power as the imperialist threat he was perceived to be by the surviving war generation. Unfortunately it does seem to be becoming less and less the norm these days though. :(

Genuinely surprised you as such a strong Independista have so much trust in the state we want to break.

Interesting figures, delighted SNP is holding its own and I am sure it will be at least 45% on voting day. We have to keep pushing to ensure people do not vote Tory even if they will not vote SNP, they must NOT vote Tory.

The 45% are motivated and focused by Indy. The SNP are fighting this election, as they did the locals, on the actual issues that the elections in hand will cover. In the current media circumstances this is a very weak campaigning position. It would rely on control of the campaigning ground the election is fought on, which the SNP do not control. SNP turnout will therefore depend, I fear, on how much of that 45% focus on what the unionist parties and media are fighting the election on (No IndyRef2) rather than what the SNP are fighting it on (strong voice for Scotland at Westminster). If the SNP vote listen to the Stronger voice for Scotland in Westminster campaign and the Unionist vote listens to the No IndyRef2 campaign line from all the UK parties and the media then voter differential could be very damaging. This is now all about what motivates your own side, and I for one am not motivated by what was always the SLabour line of 'Get the best deal for Scotland at Westminster'. This is a unionist line. There is no 'deal' for Scotland at Westminster, as SNP owning 90% of Scottish seats since the last election has very ably shown. 90% of seats and yet a legit constituted decision by the Scottish parliament to hold a new referendum is so easily and confidently ignored by Westminster. I fear the game has changed, but I hope I am wrong and the SNP are correct. This is their territory after all...

Looking at the weighting data would seem to confirm that YouGov continues to oversample those born in the UK outside of Scotland. Even with downweighting the results, this still has a pro-union, anti-SNP impact on the final numbers. I would appreciate Mr. Kelly commenting on this with his view.

Lord Aschcroft polls have been updated and are now showing the SNP probably going to 49 seats. Before yesterday the estimate was I think 45.

It looks the Libdem target seats such as East Dunbartonshire have moved from "too close to call" to "leaning SNP" and Orkney & Shetland is now "leaning SNP". It would suggest further evidence that the Libdems are being squeezed and the SNP have slightly improved their lead on the Tories.

Link to this is here https://dashboards.lordashcroftpolls.com/Storyboard/RHViewStoryBoard.aspx?RId=%C2%B2%C2%B6&RLId=%C2%B2%C2%B2&PId=%C2%B1%C2%B4%C2%BA%C2%B5%C2%B4&UId=%C2%B4%C2%B9%C2%B9%C2%B9%C2%BC&RpId=25

With regard to differential turnout, i don`t think the local elections are a guide. The ratio of older, (Tory voters) are particularly high, more so than in the Holyrood and general elections where there is more parity throughout the voting age groups. After all, the SNP only got the same percentage of the vote in the local elections of 2012, which was 32%. Well below Holyrood 2011 (45%) and the general election 2015 (50%). Also, perhaps at least some older people who normally vote for the nasty party are having misgivings. Not content to attack the poor and disabled they`re now turning their attention to pensioners. Restricting heating allowances and ending the triple lock. Their nastiness knows no bounds.

What percentage of the would be Green vote will transfer to SNP? I know people who vote Green simply because they see them as uncontroversial. I have to bite my tongue to avoid launching into a tirade about how the Green party in Scotland is essentially an SNP front. I work with these people and need to maintain a good relationship. But I can't imagine them voting SNP in the absence of a Green option. Too divisive, too annoying, too establishment.

And for those who care about environmentalism and socialism, the LibDems and Labour still provide an alternative. Failing that, there are independents, minority candidates, a spoiled ballot or, ultimately, an abstention.

This isn't what you want to hear, but I suspect the answer to your question is that roughly half of it will transfer to the SNP, and hardly any will transfer to the Tories, thus increasing the SNP's overall lead.

By the way, Aldo, please stop using coarse language. I've had to delete three or four of your comments this evening. I gave everyone fair warning that I was going to crack down, and that warning even applied to Tory trolls.