Friday, January 21, 2011

The story of the Sunni Salafist insurgency in Iraq, 1999-2010

I just returned from Iraq, where I was privileged to hear the whole story of the Sunni insurgency, from beginning to end; everything from the name on the ID card Abu Musa’ab al-Zarqawi was carrying when he first came to Baghdad in November 2002, to who paid how much for what. I cannot share the details of all this stuff, of which I took copious notes, since it is not my story to tell. That will be the task of those who told me, when the time is right. At least one is in negotiation to sell the material to an important U.S. paper. But rest assured, the right people in the Iraqi government, and the U.S. government, now know the narrative and are acting on it.

A lot of the details, in terms of who’s who, that I had written down here along the years were inaccurate. However, I was gratified to learn that the over-arching analysis culled from open sources, such as the speeches and communiqués of the jihadists and insurgents, in terms of the anti-Shia and caliphalist trends, I got right. Other matters, like how the insurgents deliberately infiltrated foreign and Arab news bureaus to feed the news cycle strategic disinformation, and how this disinformation filtered back into Western intelligence reports and analyses, I also managed to nail.

Operationally, I went wrong by trying to understand the network of the non-Al-Qaeda actors as having their origins in the Saddam regime, as former officers, security officials and Ba’athists. What I missed was that there was a supra-network of young Salafists and other assortment of young Sunni Islamists who came to age during the 1990s—many of whom spent time in Saddam’s prisons and who all know each other—whose alumnae went on to become Al-Qaeda, the Islamic Army, the Ansar al-Sunna, the Army of the Mujaheddin and the 1920 Revolt Brigades. This supra-network led the insurgency, and recruited the ex-regime officers and Ba’athists as sub-contractors of the jihad; the Saddamists worked for the Salafists from the very beginning, not the other way around.

(Note: It is interesting that their first violent act, the opening salvo of the Sunni Salafist insurgency, occurred on January 1, 2000, targeting Ba'athists congregating at a liquor store in the Waziriyeh neighborhood of Baghdad, way before any American soldiers appeared on the scene.)

Other current schools of thought among insurgency-watchers, especially on matters such as the Awakenings and the role of the tribes, are very, very off mark.

Another blind spot for me was how much involvement regional actors had in the jihad, and how much their money mattered. America’s allies are directly implicated, as financiers, ideologues, orchestrators and managers, in the deaths of American soldiers. I hope this is not glossed over by those now privy to this information. Without this money, it seems to me, the insurgency would have been crippled early on, even with Sunni resentment at fever-pitch. The money made the nightmare of the last eight years possible. It was also eye-opening for me to realize that squabbles over money, as it began to peter out, had a very big deal to do why the insurgency could never coalesce into a whole.

Again, I was privileged to hear this fascinating story, and it kills me, being the pamphleteer that I am, not to be able to publish all this for you. But I gave my word. As it is, this information rests with a very limited number of people who may have an interest in making it public. If one dies, then the material is lost. I was told this story so that I would safeguard its eventual release, if the others don’t make it to tell the tale.

I am conflicted about those who shared this with me. They are, after all, my enemies, on every level. They seem sincere is their efforts to undo some of the wrongs they have wrought on our country, and on our friends. Is it enough to redeem them? I don’t know. I simply don’t know. But the many successes Iraq has had recently in rolling up the bad guys are coming from sources such as these. The ethics of whether the prevention of future misery outweighs the crimes of the past is something too heavy for me to consider at this stage. I suspect that it doesn’t, which makes it all that much more tragic.

PS: I at least got permission to say that the post below is not correct: the current leader of the Islamic State of Iraq, Abu Bakr al-Husseini al-Baghdadi, is Sheikh (______________redacted) al-Mashhadani, while Al-Nassir li Din Allah Suleiman, the Minister of War, is (_______________redacted), "Abu Jihad", a Palestinian, and formerly one of Osama bin Laden's bodyguards in the Al-Farouq Camp in Afghanistan.

As someone whose brain aches to know and understand the specifics of the past ten years of Iraqi history, it kills me that you have the relevant details but cannot release them! Of course I recognize the need to keep your word, but at the very least copy your notes and give them to a trusted associate with instructions to publish if a stray piece of skylab should bean you on the way to the grocery store or what have you. The truth is not nearly so persistent as it should be -- those who have their hands on it should not be stingy.

On the subject of reconciliation, I too have great difficulty balancing the sums. It must be so much easier for those who are convinced of divine justice after death, because for those of us who aren't there is only cold comfort. Is it not just and right when the guilty are punished? Isn't certainty of punishment the surest deterrent? Shortly before his death, a photo was taken of Pol Pot, and even though he's old and ill you can see his eyes smiling, and he has a look on his face that is practically shouting, See me? I got away with it! I can't abide by it. It makes me sick. I cannot abide.

I was recently stuck on an international flight featuring Invictus as one of the on-board films. I surely could not have done what Mandela did and what he asked his men to do. Even recognizing the probable consequences... it is one thing to forgive from one's heart, it is quite another to allow crimes to go unpunished! Of course, I have consciously chosen a life where I will almost certainly never have to face such weighty decisions, or if I do, the effect on the world as a whole will be negligible.

The lack of reliable English language news coming from Iraq continues to frustrate. It is easy enough for you to assert 'Iraq is fine,' but just today I hear reports that the Iraqi supreme court has ruled that the election commission is to fall under the auspices of the executive branch of government. If true, it is not 'fine.' As I have said elsewhere on this blog, my conscience recoils at the idea of having supported policy that did nothing but result in another autocratic government taking power in Iraq. Whether things are good or bad there I want to know the truth so I can credibly debate those who are constantly taking me to task for my (apparently contraversial) assertion that there is nothing inherently antidemocratic in Arab DNA!

All I ask is that you not abandon this blog and continue to debunk bad reportage as it crosses the newswire. There are plenty of places to go for conflicting analysis, but this was always the only place where the story consistently made sense. You may not have always been correct, but you have only helped your credibility by admitting there were points where you were wrong. What other pundit would consider doing such a thing? Unthinkable!

In any case, take care of yourself and know that there are more than a few of us who still check back every day to see if a new post is up.

Nibras, Thank you again, glad you're back. Would you care to comment on whether you believe ISI is responsible for the anti-Shia attacks lately, specifically Karbala? I understand they've taken responsibility for Tikrit publicly, but am not aware as to whether they take responsibility for the Shia attacks. I'd very much like to know who you feel is responsible if not them, and what that party hopes to accomplish. Also, would you be willing to write a bit on al-Sadr, and the degree to which his anti-Iran tendencies have been tempered by his new wife and recent time in Iran (voluntary or otherwise). Have his accellerated religous studies increased his respecibility among the Shia middle classes? If he becomes an ayatollah will this change? (and will they stop calling him Mullah Atari?) Also what is your understanding of Maliki's statements in recent months regarding long-term US-Iraqi military participation? I find it not credible that he is sincere in wishing all US troops out, and that he is boxed in politically. Finally, since it sounds like you have had access to high-level terrorists with some conscience left, did you get a feel for their understanding of the movement's continued viability after US departure? That is, would that likely remove an ideological motive for recruitment for the movement or was that always just a pretext for thugs to murder and enrich themselves, in which case the ISI will just continue the fight against an apostate gov't. regardless of US troop absense. And if so, after Maliki is comfortably in power would you expect him to offer conditions for a new SOFA even if it is nothing more than intelligence and counter-terrorist operation support? Looking foreward to buying your book someday, Nibras.

Apologies if this seems like an advertisement. I'm just ticked off about innocent people dying in Iraq due to being sold fraudulent bomb detectors by unscrupulous UK companies. Trying to get Iraqi bloggers to pay attention so we can put an end to it. http://reasonablydoubtingnews.blogspot.com/2011/02/selling-death-fraudulent-bomb-detectors.html

Incidentally, the date on the top post on your page reads October 20, 2011 - we're not quite there yet.

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