Apple suppliers' sales surge 29% thanks to product lineup overhaul

An overhaul of Apple's lineup and anticipated strong sales of those new products have resulted in a major growth spike among Apple's suppliers.

Brian White of Topeka Capital Markets tracks Apple's supply chain in his monthly "Apple Monitor" report. His latest report on Thursday revealed that key Apple suppliers saw their sales grow 29 percent year over year in the month of October.

That increase handily exceeds the average 2 percent year-over-year growth seen in the month of October over the last 7 years. The strong performance also follows a decrease of 1 percent that came in the month of September.

White said Apple's new product lineup ? which includes the iPhone 5, iPad mini, and new iPods and Macs ? is an "unprecedented" transition. He expects the recently announced products will account for 80 percent of Apple's total sales in the company's December quarter.

He acknowledged that AAPL stock has been under "selling pressure" in recent weeks, but he remains bullish on the company going forward. In fact, he has reiterated a 12-month price target of $1,111 ? a number more than double Apple's stock price as of Thursday morning.

"The iPhone 5 and iPad mini are blockbuster new products that we believe will prove to be big hits this holiday season and into 2013, combined with the new iPad, MacBook Pro, iMac and iPod lineup," White wrote.

His "Apple Monitor" tracks sales trends across the Taiwan supply chain at leading Apple suppliers. The companies, he said, generate a high percentage of their revenues from supplying components for Apple's products.

Apple suppliers' sales surge 29% thanks to product lineup overhaul

Having followed AAPL closely for years and now knowing how stock prices can be and are manipulated by analysts, fund managers, the media, et al, it makes me very suspicious of investing my retirement nest egg in the stock market. It all appears to be smoke and mirrors. The tech world seems to have done a 180 on Apple literally over night. Everywhere you look the mantra is the same. Almost as if its coordinated.

Having followed AAPL closely for years and now knowing how stock prices can be and are manipulated by analysts, fund managers, the media, et al, it makes me very suspicious of investing my retirement nest egg in the stock market. It all appears to be smoke and mirrors. The tech world seems to have done a 180 on Apple literally over night. Everywhere you look the mantra is the same. Almost as if its coordinated.

It is singularly the most manipulated stock on the market. It has been for years helped in large part by Apple's extreme level of secrecy. The private equity funds play it like a yoyo driving it up and down having made billions in the process - exponentially more than mere appreciation. Wouldn't we all have loved to unload at 700 and be scooping it back up right now to ride back up to 700? You'd make an extra $320 / share. Now multiply that by 10's or 100's of thousand of shares which is the space these guys play in. They're printing money!

Please someone reassure me that I'm not a fucking idiot for FINALLY deciding to invest in Apple @ $640/share, after reading all "it's gonna hit 1000" pieces. It has nose-dived since, for seemingly no reason at all. Apple is in the best position it has ever has been, with potential to dominate the tablet market. They've refreshed their entire lineup, iPhone 5 demand is still surpassing supply, same as the iPad mini, and their holiday quarter looks like it will be by far the best in their history. Beyond that, the Surface has garnered mostly negative review and looks to be a confusing mess for consumers. So what the **** is going on? Am I being too hopeful in believing it WILL climb back up, and surpass its high of $700?

Santaman, in his Apple-red Super-Suit will rule the skies delivering millions of super-light iPad Minis, iPad Maxies, iPhones, and iPods of all colors and kinds to good little boys and girls all over the world. But you have to be be good or SantaMan will put a black plastic android device in your sock....

When naughtiness strikes anywhere, a letter is sent to the North Pole where our hero waits in his Workshop of Solitude… or so I presume...

It’s Santaman. With martial arts training. And a big honking red Ferrari named Cue-pid. He goes from town to town, dispensing iDevices– and justice. All for milk and cookies (and an occasional $1.05 billion).

And we already know where he gets his wonderful "recreational devices."

"That (the) world is moving so quickly that iOS is already amongst the older mobile operating systems in active development today." — The Verge

Uh, what about the election, exactly? Was not Obama the president during the last 4 years of Apple's insane success and stock explosion? Why would any of that change over the US presidency? The next president has virtually zero effect on Apple's potential performance or success.

The election has given Wall Street the answers it desired as to where things are headed in the near-term future. Now it knows how to prepare, whereas before the election things were almost in opposite directions.

Please someone reassure me that I'm not a fucking idiot for FINALLY deciding to invest in Apple @ $640/share, after reading all "it's gonna hit 1000" pieces. It has nose-dived since, for seemingly no reason at all. Apple is in the best position it has ever has been, with potential to dominate the tablet market. They've refreshed their entire lineup, iPhone 5 demand is still surpassing supply, same as the iPad mini, and their holiday quarter looks like it will be by far the best in their history. Beyond that, the Surface has garnered mostly negative review and looks to be a confusing mess for consumers. So what the **** is going on? Am I being too hopeful in believing it WILL climb back up, and surpass its high of $700?

Hmmm.. $640/share sounds a bit too high. I sold all my shares at $620, but will buy more @$450.

Well, the stock price doubled from Nov 2011 to Sept, 2012, I think that alone is a good reason to expect a correction.

Their tablet market share just dropped from 65% to 50% from previous quarter, according to WSJ (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203347104578103000176188528.html?mod=googlenews_wsj). While iPad mini and iPhone 5 are selling well, user reviews aren't, let's be honest, as stellar. Supply shortage, while failing to meet expectation, isn't necessarily something you want to brag about. Then you also have to consider the potential fiscal cliff and capital gain tax hikes next year (Obama). Sure, MS Surface isn't really a threat, but Android is still going strong - I see Galaxy S3's everywhere, in school / work / commute (which wasn't true for the S2).

Please someone reassure me that I'm not a fucking idiot for FINALLY deciding to invest in Apple @ $640/share, after reading all "it's gonna hit 1000" pieces. It has nose-dived since, for seemingly no reason at all. Apple is in the best position it has ever has been, with potential to dominate the tablet market. They've refreshed their entire lineup, iPhone 5 demand is still surpassing supply, same as the iPad mini, and their holiday quarter looks like it will be by far the best in their history. Beyond that, the Surface has garnered mostly negative review and looks to be a confusing mess for consumers. So what the **** is going on? Am I being too hopeful in believing it WILL climb back up, and surpass its high of $700?

So you're the one that "Mushed" the stock?Edited by dasanman69 - 11/8/12 at 7:12pm

"Few things are harder to put up with than the annoyance of a good example" Mark Twain"Just because something is deemed the law doesn't make it just" - SolipsismX

So Cramer says sell, based on the lack of near-term catalyst to drive the stock up, and to realize gains in a lower tax environment.

What I don't know is if people are really stupid, really smart... or where the split lies. I started realizing long-term gains back in first quarter, with the goal of not trying to carry over too many gains into next year. I would have assumed most investors would do the same-- some kind of tax increase was inevitable no matter what happened in the election. You want to spread that activity out over time for some diversity though.

Where I was dumb is in figuring that the F4Q numbers would be great and AAPL would pop up to around $750, and I got myself over-exposed, weighting too heavily in November puts. I didn't think about the fact that there are a whole lot of people with much longer term gains that are unrealized that still haven't sold. Do they take their 200% gains today with 15% tax, or wait six months and get to 300% gains at 25%? What is their incentive to not sell and buy back at the same price?

What I don't get is pretty straightforward though: where would Apple's earnings need to be for the next 12 months to justify the current stock price? They have $120B in cash, so that seems like an easy floor. Ford is the closest "undervalued" company I can find... they are at a 2.5 multiple...