Lithuania Inflation December 2015

Lithuania:

January 11, 2016

In December, consumer prices decreased 0.3% over the previous month, which contrasted the 0.3% increase tallied in November. According to the statistical institute, the result was driven by a drop in 10 of the 12 components of the index, with the food products and non-alcoholic beverages component tallying the sharpest drop.

In annual terms, consumer prices fell 0.1% in December, which was a smaller fall than the 0.4% decrease seen in November. Despite the drop, December’s print marks a thirteen-month high. Meanwhile, harmonized consumer prices (based on the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices) declined 0.3% year-on-year in December (November: -0.5% year-on-year). Lastly, annual average HICP prices fell 0.7% in December, matching November’s result. December’s result is also the lowest figure since May 2004.

For 2016, the Central Bank expects HICP inflation to average 1.4%. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect harmonized inflation to increase to 1.2% in 2016, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s estimate. In 2017, the panel sees inflation accelerating to 2.0%.

According to detailed data released by the Statistical Institute on 30 November, the economy expanded 2.4% in annual terms in the third quarter (previously reported: +2.2% year-on-year), down from the second quarter’s 3.8% year-on-year increase.

According to a flash estimate released by the Statistical Institute on 30 October, Lithuanian GDP rose 2.2% in annual terms in the third quarter, down significantly from the second quarter’s 3.8% year-on-year increase.

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