The guy who won two Game 7s last postseason is this year's fifth starter. Deep. Hinch:I think we could go any order and have an argument. Really from the beginning of the rotation, that's a tribute to the pitching staff that (Luhnow) built to give us a deep rotation.

This is the order, in part, because Hinch is giving the home opener start to Charlie Morton. Hinch:I think that's something special that he's earned.

*The Astros sent five players to minor-league camp yesterday: Kyle Tucker, Garrett Stubbs, Jack Mayfield, Jon Kemmer, and Francis Martes. Hinch, on Martes:We want him to start, which is the main reason we wanted to send him out. His development has come fast, he got up to the big leagues very quickly and got pushed to the bullpen very quickly because of need. We want to make sure that he's continuing to develop as a starter.

*Jake Kaplan has a good piece in The Athletic about Tucker, and how we'll see him again soon.

*Cody Bellinger, famous for prematurely shushing the Minute Maid Park crowd in Game 5 and also for hitting .143 with 17K in 28ABs in the World Series, hasn't watched the World Series replays:I already knew. I knew what was coming and I still didn't...hit.

*The new federal spending bill could include an exemption of minor-leaguers from federal labor laws...which would result in continuing to play baseball for billionaires for less than a living wage.

Sunday, March 18, 2018

*The Astros tied the Marlins 6-6, with all six Astros runs coming in the 9th, helped along by a grand slam from Anibal Sierra and 2RBI from Kyle Tucker.

-Charlie Morton threw 4.2IP, 3H/4R (1ER), 4K:3BB, 2HBP.

*Charlie Morton is working on a changeup. Hinch:He doesn't like using it because his other pitches are so dominant. It's a force feed for him, it'll be effective and it'll get on some scouting reports. He'll get more comfortable as he uses it more. It's an extra pitch for him, it's something we're trying to develop. Game on the line, he's not going to get beat by it.

*A week after optioning lefties Reymin Guduan and Buddy Boshers, Hinch said it's possible Tony Sipp won't make the Opening Day squad. Hinch:If the situation comes up to where we feel like it's a better option for us to have other guys, right now out current internal options are all right-handed. It's not ideal and it would be somewhat unusual just given how teams like to put their teams together. I guess that's an option.

*So Altuve's extension will kick in beginning with the 2020 season. The Astros haven't confirmed it yet, so we don't know the details of how the $151m is spread out, but it will keep him in Houston through his Age 34 season. Let's take a moment to look back at how the economics work on a year-by-year basis:

Gerrit Cole, Collin McHugh, and Brad Peacock will go into their first year of free agency.

Total: $32.5m

Alex Bregman is eligible for his first year of arbitration.

Baseball-Reference tells us the Astros have $21.4m already committed to 2020 with an estimated payroll (factoring in options, arbitration, etc) of $78.5m. They can afford Jose Altuve, who will be the 4th player in MLB history to earn $30m/year (Kershaw, Greinke, David Price).

Something to consider: the Altuve extension shows Correa, Bregman, Springer, McCullers, etc. that the Astros are willing to open the checkbook.

*Richard Justice:Hats off to Astros owner Jim Crane for doing this deal. Hats off as well to agent Scott Boras for hammering out this contract with Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow. Maybe in the end, they all came to the same place: Money aside, which Altuve might have gotten plenty of in a lot of places, he will never be as beloved as he is in this city.

Friday, March 16, 2018

Yay!! Carlos Lee is no longer the answer to the Astros' most embarrassing trivia question!!!

In news that is likely to spark World Series-type celebrations in Houston, the Astros have apparently extended José Altuve until the conclusion of the 2024 season with a massive $151MM contract extension. This extension covers the seasons between 2020 and 2024, and will finish when Altuve has reached the ripe old age of 34. I am assuming that the Astros will pick up (or already have picked up) Altuve's $6MM and $6.5MM salaries for the 2018 and 2019 seasons.

Altuve gets to enter the halls of the absolute elite - the $30MM per annum players. This is a pretty short list, as the list of baseballers who have performed at an elite level over an extended period of time is not long. Only starting pitchers Clayton Kershaw, Zack Grienke and David Price made more than $30MM per year in 2017. In 2018, Mike Trout will make more than $30MM. Miguel Cabrera and Max Scherzer are also in the middle of contracts that average more than $30MM per year, so if they aren't earning that now, they soon will.

Altuve also becomes the highest paid second baseman of all time on a per annum basis. Currently, that record is held by Robinson Canó, who will play 2018 in year five of a 10-year, $240MM contract. While Altuve's contract is not larger in terms of the overall amount paid, it is considerably larger in terms of annual value, and only pays him to the age Canó was when he played the 2017 season. This is also the largest extension ever for a second baseman, beating Rougned Odor's 6-year $49MM extension by just over $100MM.*

* Sorry, I got this stat from MLBTR's transaction tracker. Then MLBTR wrote today that Dustin Pedroia signed a $110MM extension a few years ago. Apologies...

What is also notable here is that José Altuve has only recently switched agencies, and only recently hired Scott Boras as his representative. Boras is known for his... uh... 'tenacious' advocacy on behalf of his clients, and normally likes to steer them away from extensions. Boras has a reputation of effectively playing teams off against one another in order to secure the greatest possible payday for his athletes. He tends to do well in the open market... until the 2017-18 offseason, that is.

So Astros fans are likely to be celebrating because we will see the loveable José Altuve in blue and orange for at least the next seven years. But there is also a pretty decent argument that this extension is also a very sensible one from a baseball perspective. Firstly, the Astros have considerable strength up the middle, and this keeps one of the middle infield duo in town for an extended period. Secondly, the Astros won't have to bid against other teams after grossly underpaying Altuve over the last six or so seasons in the 2019-20 offseason. Scott Boras may have been spooked by the slow offseason this year, where it seems clear that the middle tier of free agents are struggling to gain lucrative employment. Fourthly, Altuve plays an up-the-middle position, and does everything well, so he does not rely on one skill to provide value to his team. He has an incredible ability to hit for contact, he now hits for power as well, and will take a walk. He runs the bases well (which includes stealing bases), and defends reasonably well.* He has avoided major injury, and the Astros would have a good feel for how he projects from a health perspective.

* DRS and UZR don't like Altuve that much, but they struggle to manage measurements in shifted players. That said, I also don't think that a realistic argument can be put forward that Altuve is the best defensive second baseman in the league, or in the game. He is a solid but unspectacular defensive player.

I imagine FanGraphs or BPro or someone will have a pretty complete article up shortly, looking at how this contract will be valued as Altuve ages and inevitably declines. There is, of course, considerable risk in signing a single player to such a large amount per year. But what the Astros have avoided is a long contract, such as Canó's, Albert Pujols' and Miguel Cabrera's contracts, all of which will pay those gentlemen considerable amounts of money to play into their fifth decade, to the likely end of their careers. Altuve is arguably a more complete baseballer than Canó, and certainly is a more complete player than Cabrera. This makes he think that he is a better bet to provide value as he ages. His complete, all-round game puts him alongside Mike Trout in terms of elite players across a wide skillset in the AL.

So congratulations, Mr Altuve. This is the culmination of years of hard work, and is well deserved. This is acknowledgement that you do everything on the baseball diamond well. From a fan's perspective, it will be a delight watching you in Houston for at least another seven seasons.

*The Astros beat Washington 12-3 on the strength of Dallas Keuchel's 5IP 4H/0ER, 2K:1BB. Keuchel:I thought the fastball command was really good and that's what I was hoping to see. I'm still working on the offspeed. I haven't really introduced it a lot during the five-day process. So before the next two starts I'll probably be throwing some more offspeed to try and get a feel for that.

-Bregman, Marwin, Reddick, and Kyle Tucker had two hits each.
-Hector Rondon struck out the side in the 6th, Joe Smith threw a perfect 7th, and Collin McHugh struck out the side in the 8th. Buddy Boshers allowed a hit and three walks to account for all of Washington's runs.

*The Astros open the season at Arlington, home vs Baltimore and San Diego, at Minnesota, and home against Arlington. That could play a role in who gets to be Gurriel's early substitute.

*Fabiana Perez talked about her relationship with ex-fiancee Danry Vasquez. Vasquez's attorney Les Cassidy:It's very embarrassing for him. Yes, he is remorseful. He feels ashamed. At some point, a human being has to be able to restart his life and get on. If he's been rehabilitated and this never occurs again then he should be able to work in society.

Thursday, March 15, 2018

*The Cardinals beat the Astros 3-1 yesterday. It took around 20 games but an Astros starting pitcher finally kind of laid an egg. The Astros' offense got seven hits, only one an extra-base hit - a double from Max Stassi.

Verlander ain't worried:In these situations I'm thinking a little differently because I'm trying to work on some stuff so (I) threw some different pitches up there. But overall, it's another step in the right direction.

Hernandez, from Missouri City, was removed after three batters in the 9th because Hinch said "he looked a little uncomfortable."

*Jerome Solomon says the Astros' smart decisions, not tanking, helped them win the World Series.

We talked about this the other day: The Astros thought losing 105 games was better for the organization than losing 95 games. They made mistakes, releasing J.D. Martinez chief among them. There were smart decisions, there were bad decisions. The smart ones outweighed the bad ones. And isn't that exactly how we'd like to go through life?

*If you go to a minor-league game and it goes to extra innings, be prepared to see the inning start with a runner on 2nd.

Pace of play changes is to attract new fans, right? So why would you try to attract new fans by changing a fundamental rule of baseball that only takes effect after the game would normally have been over? This is stupid.

It’s been easy to identify the star of the Astros Spring Training. He’s starred both off the field with the “Ted” monicker that has been laid on him by his teammates. And he has starred on the field, slashing .375/.400/.844 with 4 home runs.

It’s been an impressive performance. And just like everyone else on Astros twitter, I’ve thrilled watching highlights of Tucker’s homers, both in real time and slowed down. And like all Astros fans, I look forward to seeing Tucker starting in the outfield in Minute Maid Park.

The Astros have already said that won’t happen this April. On March 1, AJ Hinch said"[Tucker’s] contribution at the major league level will come at some point, if he continues to progress, but it's not going to come at the end of this month. No matter what he does, we don't feel like it's in the best interest for him."

I agree with this decision. Tucker still has things to learn in the minors, and Astros fan should want

him to start the season in Corpus Christi.

The biggest reason that Tucker should start the season in the minors is his performance in AA in 2017. Tucker was very good for the Corpus Christi Hooks, but did not dominate that circuit.

Last season, Tucker started the season at Buies Creek, where he was excellent.. In 206 plate appearances in the Carolina League, Tucker slashed .288/.379/.554 with 25 extra base hits. These numbers were good for a wOBA of .410 and a wRC+ of 159. This is domination, and Tucker deservedly earned a callup to to Corpus Christi.

There, Tucker was very good. He slashed .265/.325/.512, highlighted by 16 home runs. These areimpressive numbers, but not as good as the ones he showed in Buies Creek. His wOBA slipped to .368 and his wRC+ was 129. These are outstanding numbers, especially for a 20 year-old who is 4 years younger than the median player in the league.

What does Tucker need to work on? His control of the strike zone. At Buies Creek Tucker walked 24 times in 206 PAs for a walk rate of 11.7% His walk rate declined at the AA level to 6.7%, substantially lower. Tucker’s OBP dipped from .379 to .325. Tucker struck out a good bit last season, whiffing 21.8% of the time in the Carolina League, and 20.1% of the time in the Texas League. Combined, these data show that Tucker has trouble controlling the plate as a batter, an essential skill for any hitter.

Fast forward to this spring, The good news is that Tucker is hitting the ball frequently (.375 BA) and hard (6 of his 12 hits have been for extra bases). The bad news is that he still is not walking. Tucker has only 2 walks in 35 PAs, for a walk rate of 5.7%. Simple put, Tucker needs to walk more.

Tucker is hitting .375 this Spring, and if he hits .375 in the majors, we don’t have to worry about his walk rate. But if Tucker hits .375 in the majors, he will eventually break Ty Cobb’s record for the best batting average in history. I think highly of Tucker, but that’s going a little too far. So if we make the safe assumption that Tucker’s batting average is going to be lower than .375, he needs to work on his strike zone judgment.

AJ Hinch also provided more detail about the team’s concerns about Tucker’s command of the strike zone. “He's got a good swing and he does some damage. The next step in development for him is to make sure that he picks the right pitches to swing at. Some of that is knowing strikes versus balls, but some of that is knowing what strikes he needs to attack early in counts and how to defend himself with two strikes."

Tucker is close to being major league ready. He has the power, the speed, and the defensive ability to be an impact player in the big leagues. But the most important skill for a big league batter is to control the strike zone. Tucker needs more time at Corpus Christi or Fresno to develop that skill of his before he is brought up to play in the Astros outfield.

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