A national environmental correspondent during the last decade of her 28 years at The New York Times, Felicity provided an in-depth look at the adoption of AB 32, California’s landmark climate-change bill after covering state’s carbon reduction carbon policies. more »

Lower Basin States Work to Keep Lake Mead Afloat

Posted In:

Lake Mead on the Colorado River has become an hourglass of shrinking water supplies. Can lower-basin states turn back the clock?

What a difference 135 feet makes Satellite images taken in 1984 and 2016 show a dramatic change in the perimeter of Lake Mead, the major Colorado River reservoir. Drag the slider near the center of the image to view the difference over time. Images by Joshua Stevens/NASA Earth Observatory, using Landsat data from the U.S. Geological Survey

Hoover dam and the reservoir it created have had one public purpose since the 1930s, when they first tamed the Colorado River. And as the Depression's engineering marvels aged into the 21st century, Lake Mead and its dam were still seen largely as the workhorses needed to send water and hydroelectricity around the Southwest.

But in the last 15 years, things have changed. Climate change and the disconnect between the river’s water supply and the amounts promised has given Lake Mead a new identity. It remains the biggest storage tank in the Southwest's plumbing system, but now it is also an hourglass. Its falling level marks the time remaining before interstate and international agreements kick in to dictate who loses water. As of this writing, the lake level stands at 1,082 feet. As the bathtub ring on the canyon walls gets larger, the time will get shorter.

Everyone wants to keep lake levels above 1,075 feet as long as possible to delay that moment. The deeper worry is that the level will sink to 1,025 feet, at which point the federal Bureau of Reclamation would step and make decisions without any standing agreements, and a tangle of litigation would likely begin. So they are debating over how much water to store, how and by whom. Meanwhile, Mexican negotiators seem ready to agree to the plans, if the Americans can reach agreement among themselves.

Into the Danger Zone

Lake Mead Monthly Levels, 1998-Present

Measurements are height of surface above sea level. Source: U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

Lake Mead in Perennial Deficit

The bottom line for both the lower basin negotiations and those with Mexico is the same: sharing the shortage caused by what the parties like to call a “structural deficit” – Lake Mead gets 8.23 million acre-feet from upstream releases each year, and is obliged to provide 9.1 million acre-feet to its users.

International relations are framed predominantly by 1944 treaty guaranteeing Mexico 1.5 million acre-feet of water a year. But the 73 years since that treaty have been marked by amendments – known as “minutes” – fine-tuning the agreement in terms of new developments. In the United States, current negotiations among California, Nevada and Arizona aim to produce a Drought Contingency Plan, with all users agreeing to help keep water in Lake Mead, given the risk of having its level drop below 1,075 feet or, worse, below 1,025 feet feet, when the federal Bureau of Reclamation would take over management and water allocation.

As William Hasencamp, the manager of Colorado River Resources for the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California (known as Met and one of five California subcontractors with rights to Colorado River water) describes it, the contingency plan “was not to solve problems on Colorado River – it was to buy time … There was a concern [whether existing measures] were enough to stop Lake Mead from reaching critically low levels. So they said, ‘let’s have an overlay to get us through the crisis.’” Or avoid it entirely.

An ‘Overlay’ of Additional Water Reductions

Lower Basin States Weigh Further Cuts to Preserve Lake Mead

While the prolonged western drought is largely over, Lake Mead's ongoing “structural deficit” means that its water level may continue to decline in the future. Should the reservoir's level drop to the levels shown below, the three lower-basin states may agree to additional reductions in their share of Colorado River water, beyond what they agreed to in 2007.

In California, two users – Met and the Imperial Irrigation District (the biggest single user of Colorado water, with a claim to 3.1 million acre-feet annually) – wanted water-related demands met.

Since Met has just two pipes of incoming supply – the Colorado and northern California water coming through the Bay Delta – it wanted federal assurances that it could get one supply before it agreed to possibly curtail another. It got them, Hasencamp said earlier this month. “We still have to figure out within California about our issues. But that box with Feds has been checked.”

The Imperial Irrigation District has a different worry. The children of Imperial County in southeastern California have some of the country’s worst asthma rates. Toxic dust that blows into their lungs from the dry lakebed of the fast-receding Salton Sea. This lake, accidentally created 112 years ago when a raging river broke through dikes and poured into an inland basin, is drying out, leaving dead fish and dangerous silt behind.

Natural Earth Data

Kevin Kelley, the district’s general manager, said, “we had a precondition to even signing on in that we needed some sort of coherent plan for the Salton Sea.” In March, California unveiled a new $383 million plan to build ponds and wetlands, but the funding source remains unclear. Asked if his condition for agreeing to Colorado River drought planning had been met, Kelley said, “This constitutes real progress, but we are not yet ready to declare victory.”

Met and IID had demands. But they, along with other users, felt overwhelming pressure to conserve water. A preliminary 2014 Memorandum of Understanding among the lower basin states “was an important first step to demonstrate that we in the lower basin can work cooperatively on a voluntary basis,” said Chuck Collum, the Colorado River Programs Manager of the Central Arizona Project. With a chuckle he added his own neologisms: the conservation was “vandatory” and “voluntold.”

From 2014 to 2016, under the system of intentionally created surpluses, four big users have set aside increasingly large totals, including 143,000 acre-feet in 2016, when the level of the reservoir flirted with the the 1,075-foot level. At its current level, 80,000 acre-feet equals roughly one foot of elevation in Lake Mead.

Lake Mead at the interior side of Hoover Dam. Photo taken in November 2008, when the lake stood at about 1,108 feet.Marcus Winter via Wikimedia Commons

As Hasencamp observed, there is an evolving attitudinal change: the early 20th-century adherence to the doctrine of prior rights is now joined by a recognition that all Colorado River jurisdictions need to work together. He said this represents “progress toward seeing the larger picture.”

Now there is jockeying for dominance over Arizona water policy. In two recent lawsuits, CAP claimed that it is equivalent to a governmental entity, and as such has sovereign immunity from suit. The claim, later modified, provoked a legal rebuttal and a sharp response from Tom Buschatzke, the Arizona Department of Water Resources director. “The governor and the executive branch feel it’s their prerogative to drive the water policy of the state,” he said. CAP “is impinging on that prerogative.”

The rest of the lower basin is watching. Kelley of the Imperial Irritation District said, “I hope they work it out because they are relying on California to help them. What happens between them is important to the entire river community.”

Though hiccups slow the progress toward the stopgap plan, Collum expects the agreement with Mexico on the new amendment will be concluded by the time the old amendment, Minute 319, ends on Dec. 31. He predicted a drought contingency plan will follow next year.

Then the struggle over the Colorado River’s long-term future will begin.

The language of the West evolved a distinctive vocabulary around an element that is essential, often missing, and feared when too much of it comes too fast.

Submit a Comment

We'd like to know what you think. We will not share your email address or add you to any lists. If you'd like to be notified about new blog posts and news from the Center, you can join our mailing list.

Name *

Email *

Location

Comment or Question *

Publish Name

Please do not publish my name

Email Notifications

Yes, I'd like to be notified when "& the West" has new posts

You will receive emails no more than once a week. We will not share your information.

The Navajo Tribe’s Future Without Its Major Employer and With a New President. As the various financial schemes for prolonging the life of the Navajo Generating Station fell apart, tribal members who work there must choose between finding employment where the new owners assign them, or staying on the reservation until the plant closes a year from now, then having a small chance of any job that pays as well. Their decisions will be made against a new political backdrop, as Joseph Nez, at 43, was just elected the youngest Navajo president ever. ASU/Cronkite NewsIndian Z News

Rare Dinosaur Fossils Are Threatened by the reduction of Grand Staircase-Escalante National Monument. Vast areas of land that may contain important paleontological discoveries are now vulnerable to potential energy development. About 250,000 acres of land with a high potential for fossils are being considered for mineral development. Salt Lake Tribune

A Water Reckoning in Colorado. Farming communities in the North Fork Valley of Colorado are water-rich in an era of increasing water scarcity. Farmers continue to use high volumes of water for irrigation. However, with climate change, the community will have to change outdated and inefficient systems in order to share water more cooperatively. High Country News

Indigenous Food Sovereignty in British Columbia. Activist Jessie Housty, a member of the Haíłzaqv nation, is educating young people in her community about their traditional food sources and culture. Her efforts are part of a larger movement to address food insecurity and malnutrition in indigenous communities through providing access to cultural foods. Civil Eats

Spokane Considers How to Adapt to Climate Change. In light of the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report, communities in Spokane are planning how to adapt to the consequences of climate change. People are monitoring rivers and analyzing water consumption to prepare for decreases in snowmelt. The Colville Tribe is planting heat-resistant trees. The Spokesman-Review

For Imperial Beach, Managed Retreat May Be the Plan. Facing threats of increased flooding due to rising seas, the mayor of Imperial City is proposing that the community relocate coastal homes and business farther inland, as a managed-retreat strategy. However, the process of managed retreat raises political and ethical questions that have sparked controversy among community members. High Country News

Managing the Colorado River. Demand for water and electricity have had a significant impact on the Grand Canyon and Colorado River ecosystems. Taking climate change, recreation, and other challenges into account, biologists are exploring the current challenges of river conservation. Arizona Republic

Wildfires Don’t Hurt Real Estate Markets. Researchers from University of Las Vegas determined that real estate markets in Colorado rebound within a year or two of a wildfire, encouraging development in high risk areas. People continue to move to fire-prone areas due to their scenic appeal and proximity to cities. High Country News

Water Disputes in Colorado. A cop investigates conflicts over stolen water in the Four Corners region. His work involves enforcing complex water statures and confronting local tensions over water rights that sometimes turn violent. KUNC Radio

The Potential of Stormwater Capture. In California, communities are expanding their stormwater management programs to include aquifer recharge and irrigation in addition to controlling floods. Captured stormwater could provide Californians with a water supply that is resilient to climate change. Pacific Institute

In California’s Central Valley, Air Pollution Levels Are Very Local. Residents, like the mother of a young asthmatic profiled here, need to know exactly what they are. “Regulatory agencies think regionally,” said the head of the Central California Asthma Collaborative, a Fresno-based nonprofit. This group and others, helped by new state laws, try to increase the air monitoring in a region with some of the country’s most polluted air. Kaiser Health News

Gender Diversity and California Firefighting. Starting on August 1st, the Donnell Fire burned 36,000 acres in Stanislaus National Forest, and firefighters now have it at least 90% contained. A photographer shares the stories of firefighters tackling California’s Donnell Fire and challenging traditional gender roles in their careers. High Country News

With Climate Change, Algal Blooms Contaminate Oregon Drinking Water. Last May, Oregon declared a civil emergency when toxic algae contaminated Salem’s drinking water, posing health risks to children and nursing mothers. Recently, Oregon became the second state to require testing of potable water for algal toxins. The new regulations are part of the Oregon’s plan to address how climate change is affecting its water quality. KSUT

National Parks Are Warming Twice As Fast as the rest of the country, according to a new study. It focused on 417 protected areas and found they were 1.8 degrees warmer in 2010 than they had been in 1885, double the national average rate, and precipitation was down 12 percent in the same period, compared to three percent nationally. Yale Environment 360

Los Angeles Proposes Giant Hydropower Battery for Hoover Dam, but the project faces many legal and political roadblocks due to Colorado River’s shrinking water supply, which has been a source of conflict between California, Arizona, and Nevada. Los Angeles aims to create a three billion dollar hydropower storage system, consisting of twenty miles of pipeline that connect to Hoover Dam. Water Deeply

Wyoming Turns to Wind Power. Although Wyoming is America’s top coal producer, the state is now garnering increased support for wind power, as the coal industry declines. Proponents of Wyoming’s developing wind power industry emphasize its economic importance, while skeptics raise environmental and aesthetic concerns about how wind turbines will impact the landscape. Natural Resources Defense Council

In 27 Years, California Plans to Eliminate Carbon From Its Electrical Grid. That’s the central aim of legislation signed Monday by Gov. Jerry Brown. A year after a similar bill failed, the new measure underlines California’s desire to be the nation’s leader on working to slow climate change — the shifting weather that has turbocharged the state’s wildfires and caused increasing destruction from Redding to Santa Barbara. Meanwhile, wind developers are eyeing the California coast as a place to create new renewable energy for a changing grid. InsideClimate NewsUtility Dive

The Killer of Swaths of Bigleaf Maples in Washington State Is Unknown, but its impact is being felt from Washington State south to California. These trees, whose leaves can stretch a foot across, can grow 100 feet tall. Their impressive silhouettes mean that the landscape changes dramatically as they die. The U.S. Forest Service and the University of Washington, and the Washington state Department of Natural Resources have been studying the maples, but no diseases or insects have been found in significant numbers. So no known culprit. Seattle Times/Tacoma News Tribune

Bighorn Sheep and Moose Tell Their Friends Where to Go for the best food, a new study shows. The notion that migration behaviors, following the green wave of food around the West, was a learned behavior and not a product of genetic inheritance, had been around for a while. The thought was “they just have to learn how to do this,” said Matthew Kauffman, an ecologist at the University of Wyoming. So he set up a study involving bighorn sheep that were transplanted into an area unfamiliar to them, but where established herds existed. Without genetic coding for this particular migration, they did it anyway. National Geographic

Canada’s Transmoutain Pipeline, Whose Growth Was A Key Aim of the Canadian Government, Just Lost its bid for expansion in court. The Canadian Federal Court of Appeal overturned approval of the pipeline because the government failed to adequately consider native nations’ concerns and didn’t take environmental impacts into account. Opposition groups had argued that the risks of oil spills in the Salish Sea — home to an already-endangered killer whales — and the potential hazards of increased petroleum tanker traffic are too high a price to pay for an economic boom. The expansion could have tripled the 750-mile pipeline’s capacity bringing up to 890.000 barrels a day from tar sands in Edmonton to the coast of British Columbia. Oregon Public BroadcastingGristReuters

Facebook and the Navajo Nation Commit to Renewables, but on very different scales. The year-old Solar Project – built mostly by Navajo workers – is the largest tribally-owned renewable power plant in the country and has been operating a year. Generating 27.3 megawatts, it provides enough power for 18,000 Navajo nation homes – the same number that had been without electricity a decade ago. Facebook, the social media giant in Menlo Park, California, is also expanding its uses for renewable power, but on a far vaster level. It has committed to powering its global operations with completely renewable energy by the end of 2020, in party by positioning data centers near electrical grids that can accommodate more renewables. In the last year Facebook has signed contracts for more than 2.5 gigawatts of renewables, Cronkite News/ElementalUtility Dive

Lake Mead Has Been Using Lake Powell to Keep Its Levels Up and postpone the moment when drought contingency plans are triggered because its level has dipped below 1,075 feet. But scientists now report that this draining of Lake Powell can’t go on forever: it is now 48 percent full, while Lake Mead is 38 percent full. “We’re draining Lake Powell to prop it up,” said one scientist. Arizona Republic

Is The Current Drought Just the Beginning? David Gutzler, a climate scientist at the University of New Mexico, says “It is possible that the next big megadrought is upon us, and we’re right in the middle of it.” The snowpack that supplies the upper half of the Rio Grade has decreased 25 percent in the past 40 years. The Elephant Butte reservoir, the largest in the upper Rio Grande, is just six percent full, down from 24 percent last winter. Some 500 years ago, tree rings tell us, a megadrought hit the Southwest just as the Spanish arrived; the population was decimated. And a study shows that climate change increase the chances of a megadrought to 70 percent or more. Quartz

California’s wildfires have destroyed homes and communities, and even people hundreds of miles away are feeling the effects of smoke. Stanford faculty weigh in on the health effects and increasing frequency of fires.