Thanks for your comments guys, I really like the civility and it makes it more worthwhile after a War and Peace sized comment, lol, it really felt like "talking football", which is one of my passions, typing is not, lol, but thanks again, there's some real good people on this site, thanks to Dave and everyone else that keeps this site going, civility on forums is just getting harder to find.

Career College stats are misleading. Some guys don't get on the field full time until late in their college careers and others play 4 full seasons, it's mostly meaningless. Pro potential actually matters, as much as some hate that word. guys like George Selvie, Greg Middleton, Philip Hunt, Whitney Mercilus, Damontre Moore and Michael Sam all put up big pass rush numbers but are pretty much just "good college" players whose skill set does not transfer well to the pros.

If you lack the strength, speed and length to beat NFL caliber linemen you will not have the success you had in college ball.

I totally agree Swerve, but that just hammers home my point, even if youu do have college success it's no guarentee of pro success, what does that say about those who didn't have a lot of college production, because where it's very common for college stars to flop in the NFL, it's very rare for players who didn't have stellar college careers to star in the NFL..

The bulk of VMs and DJs stats came in their final 2 years as full time starters, VM had 27 of his 33 sacks and DJ had 12 of his 14, if DJ couldn't get past college protection how is that supposed to get better at the pro level, I'm not saying he can't but it certainly begs the question.

I totally agree Swerve, but that just hammers home my point, even if you do have college success it's no guarentee of pro success, what does that say about those who didn't have a lot of college production, because where it's very common for college stars to flop in the NFL, it's very rare for players who didn't have stellar college careers to star in the NFL..

I have to respectfully disagree with you here. -Jason Pierre-Paul and Ezekial Ansah didn't put up eye popping pass rushing numbers either in college. They were drafted high on their physical abilities that NFL coaches could mold.- Jevon Kearse had similar college production compared to Jordan.- John Abraham averaged 5.5 sacks per season in college.- In his 2 seasons at Wisconsin, J.J. Watt put up 4.5 sacks and then 7 sacks.- Clay Matthews didn't have much college production at all.- Even Jadeveon Clowney didn't do much in terms of pass rush his senior year but he still got taken #1 overall.

It's why they have pro days, private workouts and combines...to project players ability at a professional level. Scouts weed out guys like Michael Sam as "pretenders" just because he had big numbers in college, didn't mean they thought he could do it in the NFL.

It does happen but its rare, for every example you have I can put up 20 examples of traditional production models, as I said it can happen, but more times than not thoose types of picks end up as busts.

It does happen but its rare, for every example you have I can put up 20 examples of traditional production models, as I said it can happen, but more times than not thoose types of picks end up as busts.

It's really not that rare at all...it looks to be about 50/50 among the top pass rushers. Some were highly productive in college and some weren't.I never get caught up in college stats when I'm evaluating prospects. I've seen some receivers and backs put up insane numbers in college and do zilch in the NFL.

Just look at the Giants for example. They drafted Mathias Kiwanuka and Damontre Moore, 2 highly productive college pass rushers and they also drafted JPP...who did not have big numbers at South Florida, and Pierre-Paul is the better pro player by far.

Well I'm not too sure about that 50-50 thing, I think if you research it you'll find most top picks were more impressive in college than DJ, we're also talking about top picks, later round projects that turn out to be good are a different story, and again, thousands of them wash out and only a rare few emerge.

Kiwi played a different position most of his career than JPP, you really can't compare them, but so far Kiwi is the better pro, JPP is starting to look like a flash in the pan, Moore was a 3rd round project.

Most of the recent top picks at defensive end haven't been all that productive in college, and it really doesn't matter. The NFL would rather have neophyte-freaks than guys like Michael Sam or Damontre Moore. They're looking for NFL type bodies and NFL speed (just like Dion Jordan has).

except for maybe the 2011 draft, most of the recent pass rushers taken high were raw/unproven guys like JPP, Zeke Ansah, Dion Jordan, Anthony Barr, JJ Watt, Chandler Jones, Barkevius Mingo.....hell, even Clowney and Khalil Mack didnt have eye popping numbers in college and they were considered the best 2 players in this past draft. 50/50 might have been too generous. It's probably more 60/40 in favor of raw talent vs. proven producer.

QB hits is a telling stat here, with only 7 hurries Shelby had 3 hits, with 18 DJ had only 4, Wake had twice the amount of hurries but 4 times the amount of hits, this is because DJ isn't getting past his man.

I don't understand how you can criticize PFF's grading system, something you've never actually seen in action (I have) and then turn around and say that numbers on a piece of paper are telling.

JPP had never played football until his junior year at HS, played 2 years in small schools where he was a beast, only 1 year at a major college, 16.5 TFLs, 6.5 sacks, 1 INT that went for a TD, 3 passes defensed and 2 FF, this is a more impressive season than any of DJs, and JPP didn't even really know what he was doing, he really was a freak.

Ansah knew absolutely nothing about american football when he started playing at BYU, he wasn't even a starter until injury forced him into the starting line up for the final 9 games of his final year, and in those 9 games he tore it up, and also was a force at the senior bowl, it's really hard to compare a guy like this to anyone, and was also considered to be a reach where he was drafted.

Barr tore it up in college, in 2 years he had 152 TT, 40 TFL, 23 sacks, 6 PD and 10 FF,, and like DJ he started college as a O player, his first 2 years were on offense.

Watt is another player that started on O, moved to DL where he played DE and DT, in 2 seasons he had 106 TT, 36 TFL, 11.5 sacks, 14 PD and 3 FF.

Jones has similar stats to DJ, but he was drafted towards the bottom of the first round, and there was no high second round pick to go along with it, so MUCH less risk, but so far after 1 season is a good example of what your talking about.

Mingo also has similar stats to DJ, but plays a different position, and also had trouble getting on the field.

Clowney was a man child in college, his final year was riddled with minor injuries and missed games, and yet his stats are way better than DJ, 130 TT, 47 TFL, 24 sacks, 7 PD and 9 FF.

I don't see any 50-50 type stuff here, all these guys were playmakers except for Mingo and Jones, Mingo has yet to really prove himself, like DJ, so really only Jones fits your profile, thats 7 to 1 by my count.

Rich, what do you know about what I've seen, and what the heck does "seeing it in action" actually mean, lol, you mean you've sat there and watched a guy or gal, watch a game and put a pass or fail down in their laptop???

Their grading system is flawed, don't they have Tanne listed as the 7th best QB in the league, lol.

Rich, what do you know about what I've seen, and what the heck does "seeing it in action" actually mean, lol, you mean you've sat there and watched a guy or gal, watch a game and put a pass or fail down in their laptop???

Their grading system is flawed, don't they have Tanne listed as the 7th best QB in the league, lol.

By the way, after thanking people for being so civil, interesting how uncivil you got in this response...

if we're giving guys like Watt and JPP a pass for their circumstances you have to do the same for Jordan. You have to remember that Jordan didn't play on the line like these other guys did in college or even line up in the front 7 at all sometimes. He was a unique player at Oregon. He was just as likely to drop back into coverage as rush the passer. Yet Jordan's numbers were still on par or in range of the rest of that bunch of recent picks.

Jordan TT-121 TFL-29 sacks-14.5 PD-2 FF-4

Quote:

04/21/2013 - 2013 NFL DRAFT: FIVE BOLD PREDICTIONS: 1. Oregon linebacker Dion Jordan is a top-six lock and the top defensive player in this draft...Whether he goes 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6, Dion Jordan will be selected in the draft's top six selections. Not maybe or possibly. He will be taken somewhere in the top six picks. Jordan wasn't the most productive college player, but watching his college tape from Oregon, he was used as a versatile chess piece all over that defense. He lined up at pass rusher, dropped in space against the run and even in the slot to cover, acting as a nickel cornerback. At 6 feet 6 and 250 pounds, his athleticism has scouts really excited for his potential at the next level and that's why he won't last long on draft day. The Jaguars at two, Eagles at four and Browns at six are the most likely landing spots; he won't fall any farther. - Dane Brugler, NFLDraftScout.com

I wasn't giving Watt or JPP a pass, if it came out that way it wasn't my intention, Watt had 36 TFL, 11.5 sacks and 14 PD in only 2 years, while playing both DE and DT, those are impressive numbers for what he was doing, 36 TFL indicates much penetration, snicker, DJ only managed 29 in 3 years playing on the edge all the time, and only 14.5 sacks and 2 PDs, in 3 years compared to only 2 for Watt who played plenty of interior.

JPP had very impressive stats for what he did also, only 1 year at a major college, his stats were good, he was making plays in the backfield and his stats would have made a big jump the following year, getting comfortable in the system, if he had stayed, DJ had the benefit of playing the same position for 3 years.

In the 1 year he had more tackles then DJ did in any of his 3 seasons, had more TFLs then DJ did in any season, had an INT and a TD, DJ had not done either of those things in 3 years, and also had more PDs than DJs entire college career.

These guys were making plays, DJs stats are pretty weak for a 3 year player, especially the impact stats, TFL, sacks and not getting his hands on the ball, 2 PDs, no INTs, no FRs and just 4 FF, his stats are not playmaker stats, they're avg.

Then the tape tells the rest of the story, JPP and Watt saw double and triple teams, teams had a hard time containing them, DJ was often times left 1 on 1 with a TE and losing the battle way too often.

This is just imo, maybe DJ explodes this year but I'm not counting on it, he doesn't look like a playmaker to me, hopefully I'm wrong.