ANALYSIS: Who Was Behind The Failed Coup In Turkey And Who Will Benefit From It

Turkish President Erdogan’s Islamist stealth revolution in Turkey took yet another dramatic turn over the weekend when a small part of the Turkish army tried to topple the autocratic leader.

This was done so ineptly that some observers, including a high-ranking European Union official, believe Erdogan staged the coup himself.

A day before the event, a leading Turkish official leaked information about Erdogan’s plan to launch a major purge against the Turkish military next month. The purge was directed at elements in the Turkish army who support popular Muslim cleric Fethullah Gülen, who lives in the United States.

Gülen was once an ally of Erdogan, but their relationship ended in a bitter feud in 2013 after which Gülen decided not to appear in public anymore in a self-imposed exile residency. He did this to escape harassment, assaults and inhuman treatment by Erdogan supporters in the U.S.

Some observers believe Erdogan could have ordered the leak about the purge to trigger the overthrow in order to give him an alibi for the crack-down on the army.

Others point to the fact that the rebels did not immediately arrest Erdogan, who was enjoying a vacation in the seaside resort of Marmaris. Special Forces of the rebels only arrived at Erdogan’s temporary residence after he left for Istanbul by plane.

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There was also the strange behavior of two “rebel” F-16 fighter jets which had Erdogan’s jet in their sights but did not shoot it down for unknown reasons. The only thing they did was lock their radars on the plane.

Colonel Ajit Bhinder, the Director of Defense and Research and Development of India’s military, said it was “clearly staged drama.”

“Turkey coup – images show zero tactical deployment, tanks parked on bridge and troops surrendering voluntarily to civilians – clearly staged drama. Images of the coup tell it all. A big political trick played by Erdogan, a hard core Islamist and enemy of secularism – to consolidate power,” Bhinder tweeted.

Israeli Middle East expert Dr. Ephraim Herrera concurred. He pointed to the fact that the rebels did not cut off the internet during the coup and said this could be an indication that the coup was staged.

“The generals didn’t cut off internet access during their operation, so Erdogan was able to freely and efficiently communicate with his supporters, and get crowds down to the streets to prevent the revolution. This means we cannot know whether this was really a coup by the officers, or one staged by Erdogan so that he can then eliminate opposition,” Herrera told Israel National News.

Staged or not, the coup has given Erdogan the opportunity to eliminate the last remnants of opposition to his rule from the army, police, and the judiciary and to complete the stealth revolution he began almost a decade ago.

This “revolution” has slowly transformed Turkey from a secular democratic country into another autocratic Islamic Republic.

The Turkish leader called the coup “a gift from Allah” and immediately ordered the arrest of almost 2,800 judges and thousands of soldiers. The regime furthermore suspended 30 provincial governors and 47 district governors and ordered thousands of police officers to stay home. A total of 7,500 people have been arrested and 8,500 have been fired since Saturday.

Turkey expert Gallia Lindenstrauss of the Israeli think tank INSS told Western Journalism that the coup will strengthen Erdogan and that he has long planned to get rid of the pro-Gulen elements in the army. The coup gave him an opportunity to execute his plans, but she did not believe the coup was a staged event because Erdogan had other means available to implement his plans.

She did not think Erdogan’s conviction that Gulen was behind the coup was sufficiently convincing.

Lindenstrauss said that the Gulen supporters “had problems to penetrate the Turkish army because the military was very suspicious of this religious group.” The INSS expert preferred to wait for additional information about the identity of the plotters of the coup.

Lindenstrauss also believes the fears that Turkey will slide into chaos and will end in dictatorship are not justified. Erdogan is pragmatic enough to do the balancing act between his autocratic inclinations and maintaining good relations with the rest of the world for the sake of the economy, she asserted.

Erdogan has an interest “to show the world that everything in Turkey is back to normal,” Lindenstrauss told Western Journalism.

Secretary of State John Kerry, meanwhile, warned Erdogan not to go “too far” in the attempts to restore order in Turkey. His warning came after media reported that the Turkish leader had said there could be no delay in imposing capital punishment against the coup plotters.