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Thursday, July 30, 2015

AMarriage on the Rocks? Saudis Look Beyond U.S. After Iran Deal (JMD quoted on Bloomberg)

Former Saudi Foreign Minister Prince
Saud al-Faisal once compared the bond with the U.S. to a “Muslim marriage,” or
one that wasn’t necessarily monogamous.

The
kingdom’s recent overtures to other partners suggest the relationship is going
through another reappraisal because of the landmark accord with regional rival
Iran. After visiting Russia and France last month, Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed
bin Salman returned home with $23 billion of aircraft and energy contracts.

“Trust
between Saudi Arabia and the U.S. has been damaged by the Iran nuclear deal,” said
Paul Sullivan, a Middle East specialist at Georgetown University in Washington.
“Many in Saudi Arabia feel abandoned by the U.S.”

The U.S., the world’s largest arms
supplier, and China each accounted for about 13 percent of Saudi trade last
year

They
have hit the rocks before, most notably in the wake of the Sept. 11, 2001,
terrorist attacks mainly by Saudi citizens. Yet the U.S.-led rapprochement with
Iran raises the prospect of a tectonic shift in the Middle East that the Saudis
haven’t had to contend with since the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Tehran.

For
the Saudis, business with Russia can dilute dependence on the U.S., while for
the more isolated Russians it’s all about winning friends and getting
investment.

“Historically,
the relationship between Russia and Saudi Arabia is one of mistrust,” said Hani
Sabra, head analyst for the Middle East at Eurasia Group. “However, as a result
of changing regional and global geopolitics, the opportunity for both sides to
consider closer ties in the future is ripe.”

More Assertive

Changes
made to the Saudi royal court by King Salman marked a shift toward a younger
generation and underscored its more assertive role as the Middle East endures
one of its most violent periods. Mohammed bin Salman, 29, was elevated to deputy
crown prince after taking the post of defense minister in January and leading
the campaign against Houthi rebels in Yemen.

In
Riyadh, Saudi officials tell diplomats that they worry Iran will use the
nuclear agreement to deepen its involvement in Arab affairs as sanctions are
lifted and its economy and revenue expand. Former Saudi ambassador to the U.S.,
Bandar bin Sultan, wrote this month in a newspaper editorial that the Iran deal
would “wreak havoc” on the Middle East.

“Considering
the unprecedented turmoil in the region, the Saudis are trying to keep all
their options open,” said Fahad Nazer, a political analyst at consulting
company JTG Inc. in Virginia who has worked for the Saudi embassy in
Washington.

Like
Iran, Russian President Vladimir Putin is an ally of Syrian President Bashar
al-Assad, whose opponents in a four-year civil war are backed by the Saudis.
Putin’s support, though, is seen in Riyadh as wavering, said Nazer.

New
Direction?

During
the deputy crown prince’s visit to St. Petersburg in June, the Public
Investment Fund agreed to jointly spend $10 billion with Russia on projects
involving infrastructure, agriculture, medicine and logistics. In previous
years, the Saudi fund wasn’t openly pursuing foreign investment.

After
meeting with Putin, he flew to Paris, where 12 billion euros ($13.3 billion) in
contracts were signed. They included a 3 billion-euro export finance accord
between credit insurer Coface SA and the Public Investment Fund. The two
countries also agreed to feasibility studies for two nuclear reactors, and
Saudi Arabia agreed to buy 30 Airbus A320s and 20 Airbus A330s for 8 billion
euros.

“There
is a more strategic direction to investing abroad now that follows wider
foreign policy interests,” said John Sfakianakis, the Riyadh-based director of
the Middle East at investment company Ashmore Group.

‘Dollar Diplomacy’

Saudi
Arabia has looked elsewhere before to demonstrate it’s not dependent on the
U.S. After the collapse of trust following the terror attacks in which 15 of
the 19 perpetrators were Saudi citizens, trade with China duly increased.

The
U.S., the world’s largest arms supplier, and China each accounted for about 13
percent of Saudi trade last year. In 2001, U.S. imports and exports made up 19
percent of Saudi trade versus 4 percent for China. Russia, the second-largest
seller of military hardware, barely registered either year.

“Financial
muscle gets you only so far,” said James Dorsey, a senior fellow in
international studies at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore. “I
doubt it will fundamentally sway Washington. Saudi leadership realizes that
irrespective of its views of U.S. reliability and policies, there is no country
that can substitute it.”

U.S.
Defense Secretary Ashton Carter met with King Salman and Prince Mohammed on
July 22 in the Red Sea city of Jeddah, where he tried to reassure them that the
U.S. wasn’t wavering in its security commitment.

Saudi
Arabia had the biggest percentage increase among the top 15 spenders on defense
worldwide last year, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research
Institute. Outlays rose 17 percent to $80.8 billion. That’s as the halving of
oil prices from 12 months ago reduces government revenue.

“For
now, that will not stop it from engaging in dollar diplomacy,” said Dorsey.
“It’s one of its foremost assets.”

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About Me

James M DorseyWelcome to The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccer by James M. Dorsey, a senior fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. Soccer in the Middle East and North Africa is played as much on as off the pitch. Stadiums are a symbol of the battle for political freedom; economic opportunity; ethnic, religious and national identity; and gender rights. Alongside the mosque, the stadium was until the Arab revolt erupted in late 2010 the only alternative public space for venting pent-up anger and frustration. It was the training ground in countries like Egypt and Tunisia where militant fans prepared for a day in which their organization and street battle experience would serve them in the showdown with autocratic rulers. Soccer has its own unique thrill – a high-stakes game of cat and mouse between militants and security forces and a struggle for a trophy grander than the FIFA World Cup: the future of a region. This blog explores the role of soccer at a time of transition from autocratic rule to a more open society. It also features James’s daily political comment on the region’s developments. Contact: incoherentblog@gmail.comView my complete profile