Friday, June 10, 2011

Obama would romp Romney in Massachusettsm

Even if Republicans nominate home state candidate Mitt Romney Massachusetts doesn't look like it will be remotely competitive in 2012.

Barack Obama is very popular in the state, putting up his best numbers of anywhere we've polled other than his native Hawaii. 58% of voters approve of him to 37% who disapprove. He's actually under water with independents (46/48) and has pretty much no crossover support from Republicans (10/86) but 84% of Democrats approve of him and that's good enough in a Dem heavy state.

Obama's popularity is part of the reason Romney would have no chance in Massachusetts. The other part is that Romney is actually pretty unpopular in the state he formerly served as Governor. Just 40% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 52% with an unfavorable one. This is a case of just not being able to overcome the state's overall political leanings. He actually does have a good numbers with independents (52/39), a decent amount of popularity with Democrats (19%), and a Republican base that likes him for the most part (74/21). But there are just too many Democrats in the electorate for all of that to add up to good numbers overall.

Obama leads Romney 57-37 in a hypothetical match up. Obama actually picks up more Republicans (11%) than Romney does Democrats (9%). For Romney to have any chance in Massachusetts he would need 2-3 times more crossover support than Obama. Romney does lead 52-43 with independents but his inability to win over any significant number of Democrats leaves him well behind overall.

All of the rest of the Republicans we tested against Obama would lose to him by more than 30 points in the state. Tim Pawlenty's at a 31 point deficit, 59-28, Herman Cain trails by 33 points at 60-27, and Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin would start 36 points behind at identical 63-27 spreads.

Other than Romney none of the Republicans can top even a 25% favorability score with Massachusetts voters. Palin's at 25/70, Pawlenty at 20/36, Cain at 15/23, and Gingrich at 15/72.

I'm sure no one was in a lot of suspense about whether Obama would win Massachusetts next year. The bigger question is if an Obama win by 20 points against Romney...or by 30 points or more against someone else...will be enough to carry Scott Brown's eventual Democratic challenger over the top.

The primaries are going to produce an extreme candidate. The GOP has been leading with only the most extreme ideas. For them to have a candidate that is moderate does not make sense. It's really sad that they've boxed themselves in like this, not for their party, but for our country.