Opposition running before the wind

The Indian Ocean Newsletter, 4 February 1995

The success of the two opposition candidates of the alliance of Navin
Ramgoolam's Labour Party and Paul Berenger's Mouvement Militant Mauricien in the
parliamentary bye-election on January 29 is writing on the wall, a clear warning
from discontented voters to prime minister Anerood Jugnauth. Reeling under the
blow of seeing the MSM-RMM (Mouvement Socialiste Mauricien-Renouveau Militant
Mauricien) government coalition candidates defeated, Jugnauth had still not made
any public comment on the ballot results two days after the polling stations
closed. And former industry minister Jean Claude De L'Estrac remained holed up
in his home, presumably wrapped in the bitter mantle of his personal defeat and
reportedly accusing electoral commissioner Raj Dayal of "complicity" with the
opposition. The electoral outcome is absolutely clear -cut, requiring no appeal
to a higher jurisdiction: MMM's Berenger was re -elected to parliament with a
comfortable 45 percent of the valid votes (representing nearly 59 percent of
registered voters), whilst his Labour Party running mate James Burty David who
was also elected collected more than twice as many votes than ex-minister De
L'Estrac (who received less than 18 percent of valid votes), leaving the former
ambassador in Paris Ms. Shirin Aumeeruddy -Cziffra trailing the field miles
behind.

The government coalition managed no more than an average 20 percent of
votes in the bye-election and staggers out of the shambles weakened by
a ballot which was nevertheless a national test, whatever some
grouches may try to claim. For RMM, led by De L'Estrac and deputy
prime minister Prem Nababsing, the upset is of size, since the
youthful RMM (and splinter group of MMM) was competing in its
first-ever election. The electoral results rub salt in its ambitious
leaders' wounds: RMM is no more than a small back-up unit for
Jugnauth's MSM. The bye-election will also have repercussions within
the Parti Mauricien Social Democrate (PMSD, right-wing) where the
candidate came in fourth. The battle is expected to resume against
PMSD party leader Xavier Duval, who had insisted on the party putting
up a candidate although his father, former minister (and party mentor)
Gaetan Duval, favoured voting against the government coalition and in
favour of the LP-MMM alliance. For the next general election, PMSD
members are likely, with the tacit agreement of Duval Senior, to seek
some sort of informal alliance with the opposition. The arrangement
might take the form of putting PMSD candidates on the LP-MMM joint
voting ticket but retaining an LP banner.

From the results of the bye-election, the LP-MMM alliance can now
deduce that it would come out with a national majority if a general
election were to be organized today. However, this "sanction
vote" against the government does not necessarily imply total
voter confidence in the capability of the LP-MMM alliance to govern
efficiently as in point of fact, there are several handicaps stacked
against it, such as the lack of a real alternative economic programme,
a potential prime minister (Navin Ramgoolam) who seems to be living on
the past successes of his father, and an MMM leader (Berenger) who has
always been much more impressive in opposition than in
power. Nevertheless, the opposition's strategy for the coming months
is all laid out: step up the pressure in a bid to force the prime
minister to call an early election, this year. According to the
constitution, the next elections should be held in 1996 but there are
several constitutional "loopholes" which could allow this date
to be pushed back to 1997.

To make the most of its advantageous position, the LP-MMM alliance
will probably call not only for an immediate general election but also
for the prior modification of the electoral law (in particular,
banning some abusive practices and limiting campaign expenditure). The
alliance will call on the government to give the electoral commission
the power to enforce the law and it makes no secret of its suspicions
towards electoral commissioner Moossun (appointed by the prime
minister on a renewable twelve-month contract) whom it may ask to be
replaced.

None of which is likely to force the premier's hand, especially as he
appears to be carefully turning his back on the chill wind
blowing. This will mean that if the alliance really wants to bring the
general election closer, it will have little choice but try to make
the country ungovernable. First, no doubt, by resuming its guerrilla
tactics to block parliamentary activities in the next session
(commencing March 21). For the purposes of their anti -government
vendetta, opposition MPs can be expected to use all means at their
disposal, to resume their tough criticism on the way the government
awarded some commercial contracts, and to feed the fires of popular
discontent over alleged "affairs". The alliance will probably
not stop short of alerting its supporters and militants. On this
point, Navin Ramgoolam's recent references to the political situation
in Bangladesh could well be a pointer to the future behaviour of the
Mauritian opposition: in Dacca, opposition MPs boycotted the
parliament for ten months, then resigned en masse on December 28 1994,
demanding that early elections be called and prepared by a non-party
caretaker government.