Sub-Saharan Africa - Risk Forecast Q1/2018

In sub-Saharan Africa in the first months of 2018, several countries risk countrywide destabilisation due to ongoing political disputes.

Due to the repeated cancellation of elections in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, street protests backed by the local Catholic community are likely to meet harsh reactions by security forces. Violent clashes and attacks over regional rights in Cameroon’s anglophone west are fuelling fears of an escalation into a civil war, including a security impact on the southeast of neighbouring Nigeria. There, the Biafra pro-autonomy movement might turn to violence following a recent ban on its overt activities, while in parallel a local militant group has threatened a new wave of attacks on oil infrastructure.

Conflicts between local populations and governments of these countries deserve particular attention during the coming months due to the risk of wide-ranging escalations.