Tropical Depression Sixteen has formed; 98L likely to develop

Tropical Depression Sixteen formed from 97L this morning, though continues to be no threat and is expected to dissipate by Friday night. The depression is located east of the Bahamas and north of the Turks and Caicos Islands, and has had organized thunderstorm activity over the past couple of days, though an approaching cold front is beginning to take its toll on the system, which is apparent on satellite loops. Wind shear is around 20 knots from the southwest and increasing, which is exposing the cyclone's center of circulation and will result in the cyclone's demise. The system's thunderstorm activity could reach the far eastern Bahamas on Friday, but it's likely that Sixteen will not impact the islands before dissipating.

Strong thunderstorm activity continues in 98L today, despite strong wind shear to its north, around 30 knots. This wind shear is expected to decrease over the next few days, providing a window for the wave to develop over the weekend. Most of the models are expecting 98L to to strengthen to a tropical storm by Sunday. The GFS and the GFDL even go as far to say that 98L could reach Category 1 hurricane strength. In terms of track, all of the models are forecasting a recurving pattern. The ECMWF pushes the potential cyclone farthest west, possibly reaching Hispaniola. The HWRF carries the system northwest over the next three days, and across Puerto Rico. The GFS has a similar solution this morning, as well. The model with the eastern-most forecast is the GFDL, which expects 98L to track north-northwest, scraping the eastern side of the Lesser Antilles, and avoiding land thereafter.

The National Hurricane Center gives 98L a 50% chance of development over the next 48 hours.

I agree. Well I'm hoping for some, and hopefully the models pan out. The northern islands definitely need more rain than we do. It's parched. I have a friend in Antigua who says its been quite dry this season.

Sorry to hear you didn't get anything yet. I'm in St Maarten and still not certain to get any significant weather from 98L. What a shame for a system being so close!

I agree. Well I'm hoping for some, and hopefully the models pan out. The northern islands definitely need more rain than we do. It's parched. I have a friend in Antigua who says its been quite dry this season.

Typhoon "NINA" has maintained its strength as it moves northward slowly

At 10:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Nina [958 hPa] located at 19.8°N 128.7°E or 630 km east of Basco, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north slowly.

Additional Information=======================

Estimated rainfall amount is from 10-25 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 650 km diameter of the typhoon.

Typhoon "NINA" is still far to directly affect any part of the country.

Fishing boats and other small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the northern and western Seaboards of northern Luzon and the eastern Seaboard of Luzon and Visayas due to big waves generated by Typhoon "NINA".

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.

Quoting LemieT:Well this is truly amazing. An invest/TD/TS passing within 20 mi of my island, and not a thing happening. This reminds me of when the center of Ernesto passed earlier this year. It could be clearly seen at 12.8N, 58.5W, or basically due east. Next thing I knew, it was streaming by at 14.1N 59-60W due to a center relocation. All of the rain we had was the next as the center passed SW of St. Lucia. I am at least hoping for some sort of action good rain and wind from 98L/TD17/Rafael. It's too close to not give us a taste of something. Thankfully, it's not another Tomas situation, though we were also spared the worst by about 20nm in the end.

Well this is truly amazing. An invest/TD/TS passing within 20 mi of my island, and not a thing happening. This reminds me of when the center of Ernesto passed earlier this year. It could be clearly seen at 12.8N, 58.5W, or basically due east. Next thing I knew, it was streaming by at 14.1N 59-60W due to a center relocation. All of the rain we had was the next as the center passed SW of St. Lucia. I am at least hoping for some sort of action good rain and wind from 98L/TD17/Rafael. It's too close to not give us a taste of something. Thankfully, it's not another Tomas situation, though we were also spared the worst by about 20nm in the end.