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Re: From What I have Heard

Originally Posted by 757690

Reds played .670 baseball for their final 82 games in 2011, mostly without Joey Votto. Very similar team.

More importantly, no one in the division is playing well right now.

This doesn't present me with a single reason we should expect a Reds' hot streak. There is no part of the club playing outstanding ball. Their big star is likely out until, ballpark, September. The Reds schedule (as noted in another thread) isn't the hardest but is absolutely not easy. The personnel includes several weak offensive positions.

There is just no cause for the kind of optimism that should influence the front office.

If you want to be optimistic as a fan, that's great, more power to you.

If the front office wants to make deals for this year involving prospects and good controllable players, they would be very, very unwise.

Re: From What I have Heard

Originally Posted by Kc61

This doesn't present me with a single reason we should expect a Reds' hot streak. There is no part of the club playing outstanding ball. Their big star is likely out until, ballpark, September. The Reds schedule (as noted in another thread) isn't the hardest but is absolutely not easy. The personnel includes several weak offensive positions.

There is just no cause for the kind of optimism that should influence the front office.

If you want to be optimistic as a fan, that's great, more power to you.

If the front office wants to make deals for this year involving prospects and good controllable players, they would be very, very unwise.

They were playing outstanding baseball last month, going 20-10. .667 ball over 30 games.

They do that again, then play .500 ball the rest of the way, they win 86 games. That's without adding anyone.

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Re: From What I have Heard

They were playing outstanding baseball last month, going 20-10. .667 ball over 30 games.

They do that again, then play .500 ball the rest of the way, they win 86 games. That's without adding anyone.

You know I wrote a few times a month ago that Walt cannot think that 2012 can just happen all over again. That streak happened but this has nothing to do with the situation
going on back then..... yet here you are actually buying into this and thinking it's just going to happen with a reasonable and plausible explanation?

No wonder Bob C is afraid of even a few small trades like Brox or Simon or even Cueto and Latos...to help the team more in 2015.... he is afraid he will lose fans who are not clearly
being realistic here.

Re: From What I have Heard

Originally Posted by RedsManRick

I think where I take issue is the idea of something helping "a lot".

- How many wins do we think the team as currently constructed will win? Considering the injuries and the over-performances, let's say they keep up their pace thus far and win 31 of their remaining 61. That's 82 wins. (this is also what BP and Fangraphs' projections have the Reds at -- well, 81 for FG)
- If the team played .557 ball the rest of the way, a pace exceeded only by Milwaukee (.563) and San Fransisco (.569) thus far in NL, the Reds would win 85 games.
- How many wins will it take to win the 2nd wild card game? 88? That would require a .607 pace, one exceeded by only the Athletics.

In short, unless the Reds make trades that make them the best team in baseball, it's not going to shift the odds sufficiently to make a short-term move worthwhile, solely in the context of making the playoffs this year. What's adding 6 wins of talent in 60 games? It's adding 16 wins in 160. The Reds would have to improve their roster by a Mike Trout and a Clayton Kershaw to hit that 88 projected wins. Adding 2 or 3 league average players improves the team by about 2 wins.

If one has what I would call a realistic appreciation for the quality of the team as currently constructed and the set of likely outcomes for the season, it's quite hard to justify any sort of short-term play. Now, if you can flip a few borderline prospects who are virtually fungible for an extra win or two, fine, it's hardly worth complaining about. But giving up real talent for a short-term play at a long shot strikes me as the way you slip in to prolonged mediocrity. Just ask the Royals.

I know that Castellini wouldn't approve, but I'd be shopping Broxton, Parra, Ludwick, and maybe even Mike Leake. Let guys get healthy and try again next year. Don't throw good money after bad.

I can respect that opinion and it's totally logical.. not winning after the AS break has dug a huge hole.
Its probably too late now. Had Walt got another player right away instead of letting Votto play very hurt, maybe it's a different story.
I don't want to mortgage the good prospects, but if we could rent a position player for another Donnie joseph, if nothing else, it makes this
team more pleasant to watch and keeps interest up.. the reds had a lot of good luck with the bench guys playing over their heads for 2 weeks.
Now, it's crashed down to earth..
But yea, now that we've lost 7 in a row, I'm more inclined to do nothing, but this is going to hurt ratings and ticket sales the rest of the year, which also hurts the budget for 2015.. sigh.
I wonder if the Reds will sell if they continue the free fall.. my guess is they will stay totally pat.

Thank you Walt and Bob for going for it in 2010-2014!

Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

Re: From What I have Heard

Originally Posted by Tony Cloninger

You know I wrote a few times a month ago that Walt cannot think that 2012 can just happen all over again. That streak happened but this has nothing to do with the situation
going on back then..... yet here you are actually buying into this and thinking it's just going to happen with a reasonable and plausible explanation?

No wonder Bob C is afraid of even a few small trades like Brox or Simon or even Cueto and Latos...to help the team more in 2015.... he is afraid he will lose fans who are not clearly
being realistic here.

2012 doesn't have to happen all over again. One month like the month of baseball before the All-Stsr break has to happen again, and the Reds are contenders.

As I said a few times now, I hope the Reds are sellers at the break. But I don't think contending is such unlikely of a task, that if they did trade some prospects to go for it this year, I wouldn't be upset.

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Re: From What I have Heard

I know that Castellini wouldn't approve, but I'd be shopping Broxton, Parra, Ludwick, and maybe even Mike Leake. Let guys get healthy and try again next year. Don't throw good money after bad.

Agree with this. Maybe Simon too, if you can "sell high."

Go after a young, ML-ready SS, and a LF signed through 2015. Use Leake, Broxton and Simon as the primary bait. If you can find takers for Ludwick and Parra, that's good too. If you need to use one or two of the young arms (like Lively or Travieso) to sweeten a deal, I'm fine with that too.

Do everything you can to sign Latos, and Cueto if you can squeeze them both in. Reds shouldn't need to spend a lot of money on anyone for a while after that, at least until Mez and Frazier start nearing free agency.

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Re: From What I have Heard

Personally, I'd be trading prospects for guys who can help this year and next. Wouldn't deal top 4 (Stephenson, Lorenzen, Winker or Ervin) would need to be bowled over to deal Travieso or Lively. Others are all fair game IMO. If they can move two or three guys who clog the 40 man for one guy who can help this year and next year, great. Y-Rod, one of Corcino or Guillon, Soto, one of Moscot, Romano or Garrett, one of Waldrip, Lutz, Selsky or Silva, Barnhart something like that. It won't cripple the organization and it's better than giving up. If the team is dead in late August, they can move money of the books by dealing Ludwick, Broxton and the like in waiver deals. I don't deal any starting pitching. If the Reds are out of it in late August, I'd consider dealing Phillips in a waiver deal.

"All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

Having better players makes "the right time" or "the big hit" happen a lot more often. PLUS PLUS

Re: From What I have Heard

Fair enough. Those, however, were opinions, not things that I have heard from someone who would know.

I assure you, you would be SHOCKED who my source was, but thats cool.

We shall see how it plays out.

So does your source know what year the Reds will FINALLY go for it?? we fans have been waiting since 1995 to win a Post Season Series!! And does your source like how the Reds have yet to be better than the Cardinals in all phases (Drafting/Coaching/Hitting/Taught to make adjustments) and the know of when they cross the lines, They are determined to win and the main goal is World Series??? And does your source know how frustrating it is to know they could have gone farther last year if they had been proactive and claimed Byrd instead of depending on a Ludwick with a major shoulder injury to carry this team batting 4th??(hit 2 homeruns in 100+ AB'S).. And it also frustrates Fans to know the Window to WIN is closing and we fans will continue to only look at the Past to see anything with the words World Champion on it?? ALSO does your source know that the Reds FO has had 3 years to fix the inconsistent hitting and it continues to get worse each year??

The Cards/Brewers and Pirates will do whats best to help the team win this year, where the Reds have yet to do anything to fix needs the same season....

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