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METHODOLOGY

The IHS Economics and Country Risk team scores risk numerically alongside its qualitative text-based forecasts. These scores are comparable across countries. They range from 0.1 to 10 with steps of 0.1 on a logarithmic scale, so a score increase from 8.1 to 8.2 represents a larger increase in risk than a move from 1.1 to 1.2. Each score represents the average expected level of risk over the next year. These indices are dynamic.

THow scores are set and reviewed

TIHS economists and country risk analysts score risks based on their own expert understanding of the countries' political, economic, social, and security environment, using economic models, information from open sources, and structured intelligence gathered by a network of thousands of in-country personnel. Daily written assessments highlight a country's changing conditions and inform the risk scores. In addition to in-house expertise and models, IHS draws on experts in the field and in-country sources with proven records of reliability. Our wide network of external analysts and contacts gives us access to local, specific, and granular information. The country risk scores also benefit from the insight and data generated for two other specialised IHS risk products â?? the Sovereign Risk Service and the Global Risk Service.

TAnalysts can move the scores at any time in light of significant events that signal changes in the risk environment. Event-driven risk score changes can reflect developments such as elections, significant violent attacks, or a change in government policies. Regional desk meetings take place every week to review any such developments and their impact on the scores. The regional desk also reviews scores for any given country on a rolling basis, at least quarterly, alongside a qualitative review of the written briefs, or production of quarterly economic forecasts.

TIHS's dedicated Risk Center works with analysts to regularly review scores and relative country rankings. An independent quarterly global review is carried out by auditors from the Political Violence and Political Risk teams as well as the Risk Center experts, who examine the scores for contextual and statistical consistency in a regional and global context. This review is aided by statistical metrics set and run by the Risk Center. The regional desks hold a meeting with the Risk Center to review their region's scores comprehensively on an annual basis.