Monday, February 14, 2011

2011 ZiPS Projections - Philadelphia Phillies

With apologies to Giants fans (as everyone knows, I’m very mild-mannered and don’t like to offend), the Phillies are the team to beat in the National League. The merits of the front 4 is obvious enough for Murray Chass to get and while there are individual players on the offense that are a bit overrated, the team’s been really good at adding some quality minor leaguers - guys like Matt Miller and Brandon Moss shouldn’t start, but they should be hanging around in the event of an emergency. And with 7 of 8 starters (whether Brown or the less ideal Mayberry/Francisco globulation) being 30 or older for the 2011 season, it’s nice to have some Plan Bs. Shortstop’s probably the exception, but most teams usually have that issue.

Even though they are probably the favorites, it’s not always sunny in Philadelphia. The Ryan Howard contract still hasn’t started and whereas most teams worry about the back end of 9-figure contracts, the Howard deal is already a concern (or at least should be) in year 0. There’s a lot of talent at the lower levels, but it’s going to take a few years to get to Philadelphia. The bullpen’s really short an impact arm - it’s full of OK relievers and one of the leading causes of heart attack. If the Phillies are going to continue what is likely their best run in history over the next few years, Amaro is going to have oversee somewhat of a transition from the older stars to the younger set - he’s played aggressive more than smart and that can come back and haunt you.

Reader Comments and Retorts

Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.

I have to say that if the Phillies Front Four (Phillies Phront Phour ... ? No.) "Only" meet those projections I will be somewhat disappointed. I mean that's a great performance, and would probably be the best in the league, but I want to see some records broken damn it.

Not that I would expect ZiPS to project records being broken, since it's going to look at the median, but .. well I'm not sure what my point is.

So if they win 100 games, nobody gets any money. Is that how the bet works? And if they win 99, one guys gets 99 and the other nothing, but if they win 101, one guy gets 10 and the other nothing. Is that right? I'd take the 99 and lower side, I think.

Quaker, I hope you have the over - the under won't likely get you 2 good cheesesteaks & sodas. The EV for the over may benegative, but the expected utility is pretty decent, since a 102+ win good season pays you enough money to do something with.

#5, Austin Hyatt is a 15th round pick from 2009 who has generally been old for his leagues, but has a career minor league K/9 of 11.8.

Eric Wordekemper shows up again. Why does he keep popping up on Phillies lists? He's very much a Yankee farm product. I'm guessing there's a programming snafu on baseball-reference that missed Scranton's franchise move.

Is it possible to get a projection for Savery as a hitter, or is there too small a track record? The Phillies moved him off the mound.

Mike Sweeney's comps are a hilarious example of how weird three-year comps can look. Al Kaline, Andy Abad, Frank Thomas. I remember Andy Abad - he made like five AAA All-Star teams in a row without ever projecting as a good major leaguer.

I really like the Lou Whitaker comp for Chase Utley. Utley's better, but the arrangement of skills is almost exactly the same.

Every one of Ryan Howard's top three comps was done as an MLB regular by the age of 31. That's about as bad a set of comparables as it is possible for a player to have. Now, this is a bit unfair, as Esasky's vertigo can hardly be figured in to the equation, Brad Hawpe still might put together a decent season soon, but ZiPS' career projection for Howard is truly terrible, and this must be the reason. Howard has put up a 140 OPS+ in 3700 AB so far in his career. In order to end his career with a 124 OPS+ in 6700 AB (with a 124 OPS+ in 550 AB this year), Howard needs to put up a 100 OPS+ over the final 2500 AB of his career. Basically, ZiPS thinks Howard's toast as a good player, starting in about 2012.

The Ryan Howard contract still hasn't started and whereas most teams worry about the back end of 9-figure contracts, the Howard deal is already a concern (or at least should be) in year 0.

What does this even mean (besides that the Howard extension was unwise)? In what way should anyone associated with the Phillies worry about the contract or concern themselves with it this year? In fact, it is almost impossible for his contract to affect 2011 in any way whatsoever (given that a trade will not be happening).

The projections probably overrate Ibanez and Polanco a bit, and I suspect if Utley has a full season he might have one final MVP-caliber year. But the Fab Four going 64-28 sounds about right. Lidge won't return to his '08-level of performance -- given the strength of the rotation, he won't need to, either.

I have to say that if the Phillies Front Four (Phillies Phront Phour ... ? No.) "Only" meet those projections I will be somewhat disappointed. I mean that's a great performance, and would probably be the best in the league, but I want to see some records broken damn it.

I hear what you're saying, but 800+ innings with a 130 ERA+ would be pretty freaking great. In fact, it would be one of the top performances by a starting rotation in baseball history. The 1971 Orioles got ~1100 innings from their rotation, but the ERA+ was "only" about 115. The 1998 Braves probably had the best rotation in the last 100 years, and they had ~1100 IP from the top 5 with an ERA+ around 140 (I'm just eyeballing these stats).

Every one of Ryan Howard's top three comps was done as an MLB regular by the age of 31.

His top 3 BBREF comps are Richie Sexson, David Ortiz and Wilie McCovey
Sexson was still a regular after 30- but terrible
Otiz looked to be in rapid descent but had a nice bounceback last year at age 34
McCovey's peak was 30-32
next you get McGriff and Cecil Fielder
McGriff last along time, but after 30 most years he put up a 110-120 OPS+ (and for a 1B that's just another player)
McGwire, Mo Vaughn
Thin Carlos and Tino M...

And the top 5 as a whole: 988.3 innings, 210 BB. That's only 1.9 BB/9 IP. The worst guy is at about 2.6 BB/9 IP, which is still significantly better than the 3.3 BB/9IP that the NL averaged, and would not be too far outside the NL Top 10.

It will be Utley's longevity more than anything else, he's had a late start, if he declines when Robbie Alomar did he's not getting in, if he ages like Kent, then the Kent barometer may be useful- but I think he gets in anyway- since he's not gonna have Kent's problems (guilt by association and percolating belief among the MSM that Kent should be compared to LFs rather than 2Bs...)

percolating belief among the MSM that Kent should be compared to LFs rather than 2Bs

Not sure what that means. There is the general HoF voter's seeming need to compare all 2B and 3B to LF but that doesn't single out Kent. Is it a reference to his rep as a poor fielder? Utley certainly doesn't have a rep as a poor fielder but he's also never won a GG so unless fancy defensive stats have won the day by the time he comes up for election (which they may have, we're talking 10+ years from now), his defense isn't going to play a significant role in his HoF case.

I'd also argue Kent has no guilt by association in the voters' minds. He was not a friend of Bonds's, in fact they openly argued that one time. Kent will have a hard time with the "that's a funny career arc, he must have been on roids" and the "I ain't voting for any hitter from that era except the ones I liked" crowd but otherwise I don't see him being tainted by the steroids era.

Not sure what that means. There is the general HoF voter's seeming need to compare all 2B and 3B to LF but that doesn't single out Kent.

I've seen at least three times now, comments to the effect that Kent's numbers don't look like a 2B's numbers, and he was not great shakes with the glove, so his number should not be comapred to guys like MAz(!) or even Alomar, but be compared to guys who played 1B...

Domonic Brown's ZiPS projection look like a very strong Rookie of the Year candidate.

The Phans are quite nervous, due to Brown's less than auspicious Aug-Sep callup. It sure looked like he could be handled inside. Supposedly new/old hitting coach Greg Gross already has it straightened out.

None will have 300 wins, 3000 Ks, ERAs below 3, etc. I can see the electorate ####### up at least one of these guys, if not all three.

Halladay's already got 2 Cy's, a playoff no-hitter, and a regular-season perfect game. If he gets to 250 wins (as ZIPs predicts), he'll get in easily. Oswalt, on the other hand, has always kind of slid a little under the radar in terms of how good he really is and pitching in the same rotation as Halladay and Cliff Lee probably isn't going to help that. I'd put his HOF odds well south of 50% (in terms of getting voted in; not in terms of deserving it).

Based on those career projections, Lee and Hamels are twins. If pitchers with 2800 IP and 118ish ERA+s start getting in ... you can't possibly keep Pettitte out (3055 IP, 117 ERA+, many more wins plus the post-season. Lee will have a peak argument I suppose.

I also like that Hamels ends up with 1 more GS than G. :-)

I also like ZiPS' projection of Howard adding speed as he ages -- more triples and SBs in the second half of his career. :-)

Halladay's a shoo-in. Oswalt and Lee are borderline. Utley has to age well to have a shot. Howard and Rollins will not sniff the Hall. I mean, seriously? Jimmy Rollins? It would be like voting for Raffy Furcal.

I don't think Lee has a chance.
He's 32, has 102 wins and a 112ERA+.
He'd need to repeat his last three years through age 40 to just get to 250 wins.
Say he gets to 230 wins with a 115ERA+. Is that enough?
Oswalt on the other hand has the peak/prime and just needs to stay the course for five more years.
If he can get to 225 wins with 125ERA+ 2500K he'd be at least comparable to Drysdale/Bunning and hard to keep out.
Halladay, as you said is a shoo-in and has already done enough.

I've seen expressions of concern on a couple occasions from scouts, but I've never seen any specific name attached to the source. A lot of it seems to be overreation to his less than stellar 67 PA in the majors at the end of the season.

The comment about the bullpen is curious. Ryan Madson is absolutely an "impact arm" and Lidge may be a question mark, but he can still pile up K's, even with diminished stuff last year (though he's supposedly fully healthy now for the first time since 2008). Contreras was very good against righties and solid against lefties. Romero is a good LOOGY. And there are a couple of promising minor leaguers who could contribute this year if anyone falters or gets hurt.

All of this misses the fact, however, that the Phillies project to need their bullpen far less than most teams.