Recent data support our expectation of 3% global economic growth in 2015. There are actually factors present that could generate a stronger recovery in growth, but the outlook is overshadowed by uncertainty regarding Greece and Ukraine.

The French economy is expected to grow by 1% in 2015 and by 1½% in 2016. The limited ability of the French government to introduce structural reforms is not a good sign for economic growth in the long term.

In 2014, GDP volume shrank with 0.4%. In 2015, the economy is expected to grow for the first time in four years, albeit very slowly. Initially, the recovery is supported by consumption and foreign demand and next year also by fixed investment.

We expect that German economic growth accelerates in 2015 on the back of increasing private consumption growth. Falling inflation combined with high nominal pay rises will lead to a further rise in disposable income.