"Marketwise we are not going into Monday's report with any big convictions. We are fundamentally bearish corn since yield reports have been flowing in larger than expected. Soybean data is still not widespread enough for us to confidently estimate final soybean production but early bean yields have been decent so far. I think the weak US Dollar Index is part of the reason corn hasn't broke the lows yet. Also the liquidation of the wheat shorts going into the end of the quarter is also helping to support corn," he says.

Re: Floor Talk September 27

One analyst says, "Marketwise we are not going into Monday's report with any big convictions. We are fundamentally bearish corn since yield reports have been flowing in larger than expected. Soybean data is still not widespread enough for us to confidently estimate final soybean production but early bean yields have been decent so far. I think the weak US Dollar Index is part of the reason corn hasn't broke the lows yet. Also the liquidation of the wheat shorts going into the end of the quarter is also helping to support corn."

--Another analyst says, "For wheat, you're seeing some concerns of the frost in Argentina and the unwinding of short positions of wheat contracts, ahead of the Quarterly Stocks Report Monday.Brazil is bidding for U.S. wheat, after the Argentina frost became inevitable. That starts to stir the pot, as to what our exports are now. Given the amount of wheat for feed-usage in the western Corn Belt and Southwest through the summer, wheat just got a bid. We watched the charts show Dec. wheat at $6.40 firm up for a number of weeks. We just found a technical bid with other events out there.BUT, keep in mind, we are looking at a record Ukrainian crop, good yields in other European areas. Plus, we have plenty of world wheat supplies. So, the rally you are seeing isn't likely one that will be long-lived, especially since we are awaiting the corn yield reports.Wheat is the biggest marketmover right now because nobody wants to make big moves in corn and soybeans. Monday's Report means little to corn and soybeans because we are headed into harvest. And the end-users know, as well as the market, that a new crop is coming. So, this report's carryout number on old-crop doesn't carry a lot of weight.Yes, we are trying to balance the wheat stocks picture. but, the report is mainly about old-crop and what we did to end the marketing year.Immediately after the numbers are released, your market bias will go right to what you think the corn and soybean yields will mean to prices.IF the wheat usage number is larger than expected and harvest becomes one with lower yields than thought, folks will get excited. But, right now, yields are coming in at decent levels. The uncertainties remain with protein levels and test weight.IU don't this report is a big deal. But, we are in this timeframe when there is no new news. So, this report is being made into a big deal.FOR SOYBEANSEveryone is talking about the USDA's soybean export estimate is too small and the fact that they reduced it in their last report was out of place. But, we do a lot of selling at this time of the year. We sell a lot in this first quarter, for delivery at later dates. Buyers know this is seasonally, a time for low soybean prices. So, they have their year maps out and are trying to secure supply.We will be watching to see what happens with the crush numbers. Why? Because, in recent years we have been very active in exporting meal. So, this will be a watchpoint.On that ending stocks number that hasn't been changed for two or three reports, I don't think USDA does anything there. We are expecting a large South American bean crop this year. We don't know our soybean yields yet. So, if we start talking about too tight of stocks too early, prices go up and we instantly price ourselves out of the export game."

Re: Floor Talk September 27

It just doesn't make a whole lot of sense, to run our country out of beans shipping them to China, only to have to have shiploads brought back in from SA next year. Unless, of course, this is the game being played on the American Farmer to get them to sell out our crop cheap, and force our internal buyers to pay a premium for shipping it back up the Mississippi next year. Taht way, we can cancel some of those loads to China at on oppertune time - drop the market, and then say how many loads of cheap beans are coming from SA, and drop the market. It's really dumb - but I'm sure someone has figured out a way to make money doing this. At what cost? To our producers AND end users. It's such a shell game, that no one reallys knows - except those that are moving the shells.

Re: Floor Talk September 27

There is no large scale plan, controlling price to farmers. The decision by endusers not to buy until price is lower, controls the overall price pay to growers. Many endusers have the belief that lower prices are coming. Causing the harvest prices to bottom, regardless of the supply. When supply is known, endusers will come to the market.