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Decision-Making

ABSTRACT

This paper defines Counter Terrorism within a risk management and information warfare framework, using risk analyses based upon an understanding of Belief Systems. An understanding of how people make crucial (life threatening) ethical decisions is important to reducing the likelihood and the impact of terrorist acts. This understanding can come from analyzing and modeling the complex systems that make up the Belief Systems of terrorists and of the targets of terrorists. Counter Terrorism analysts can use these Belief Systems Models to identify key influences or relationships in Belief Networks and apply information warfare strategies to exploit or prevent events arising from crucial ethical decisions made by terrorist organizations, creating immunity in targeted societies.

ABSTRACT

The changing Information Warfare environment requires that a decision-maker have effective processes to manage situations. This research paper presents an outline of anticipatory decision-making and indicates the usefulness of the Bayesian method for decision-making support. The Bayesian paradigm provides an elegant approach to pursue rational decisions in uncertain conditions. The main contribution of this constructive study has been to develop a network for time expanded anticipatory decision-making for actions of Information Warfare and Security generally.

Keywords

ABSTRACT

Cyber operations consist of many functions spanning cyber management, cyber attack, cyber exploitation, and cyber defense, all including activities that are proactive, defensive, and regenerative in nature. A subset of cyber defense, Active Cyber Defense (ACD) focuses on the integration and automation of many services and mechanisms to execute response actions in cyber-relevant time. ACD is comprised of a set of logical functions to capture details from enterprise-level architecture to operational realization with the primary objective to become a living part of DoD cyber operations to help defend the nation from cyber-based adversaries.