Consumer spending recently has taken a firmer stance. Despite the news of weaker sales of light motor vehicle sales last month, chain store sales moved to a firmer footing. According to the International Council of Shopping Centers-Goldman Sachs Index store sales rose 0.7% last week and made up the decline of the prior period. The news for the full-month, however, is more encouraging. Added to increases early in the month, chain store sales for all of April rose 1.4% from the March average following that month's tepid 0.3% uptick.

During the last ten years there has been a 64% correlation between the year-to-year growth in chain store sales and the growth in general merchandise sales. These weekly figures are available in Haver's SURVEYW database.

Moreover, the outlook for sales continued cautiously optimistic. The leading indicator of sales has been moving sideways since early February. While still negative, the year-to-year change has improved to a negative 2.0%, up from the 6% rate of decline last Fall.

A Minsky Meltdown: Lessons for Central Bankers from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found here.