SemiAccurate (a blog for some IT consultants) does a lot of 'speculating'. I have found that they actually are semi-accurate and, much of what they predict turns out to be true eventually.

Sooner or later, someone will come along and do a better job than the treacle that Microsoft, offers. Actually that happens all the time. How about, sooner or later, someone will come along and do a better job than the treacle that Microsoft offers, and for some reason, Microsoft won’t be able to crush them like a bug. Then the circled wagons have an alternative. Then the decades of built up enmity have an outlet. Then Microsoft is in trouble.

In such a situation, a company has two choices, both of which are quite stark. They can radically change their ways or they can wither and die. Before you point to Windows 8 and say, “But they are changing and innovating”, hold off a moment, it isn’t what you think.

Microsoft has three product lines that underpin everything, Windows, Windows Server, and Windows Mobile/Phone/WART/whatevertheynameitthisweek. On those, the other moneymakers, Office and Exchange, run exclusively. The apps use protocols that are locked down with dubious methods, and will not run on any competition. The competition is likewise excluded from doing what Microsoft can, either directly like Novell, or by raising the cost to the point of it not being profitable. This is how the wagons are circled, with every iteration, the cost of competing go up, and value of alternatives go up too.

The problem is that if you are locked in with a choice of 100% Microsoft or 0% Microsoft, once someone goes, it isn’t a baby step, they are gone. Once you start using Google Docs and the related suites, you have no need for Office. That means you, or likely your company, saves several hundred dollars a head. No need for Office means no need for Exchange. No need for Exchange means no need for Windows Server. No need for Office means no need for Windows. Once the snowball starts rolling, it picks up speed a frightening pace. And that is where we are. The barriers to exit are now even more potent barriers to entry.

last 10 comments:

sikapossu

(06:57 PM EST - Nov,15 2012 )

Can Windows 8 Save Microsoft

save from what ?

Csimbi

(07:30 PM EST - Nov,15 2012 )

Yes, good question. MS is not in any danger.
However, if the release after Win8 (Win9?) will be the same quality, the board may have to reconsider swapping more people on the managers' seats.

Enterprises will steer clear of Win8 for sure.

Venom1

(04:02 AM EST - Nov,16 2012 )

We need to be saved.

-=WolverinE=-

(04:32 AM EST - Nov,16 2012 )

Venom1> We need to be saved.

SANTAAAAAAA! I CALL THEE! :lol:

Majnun

(06:14 AM EST - Nov,16 2012 )

I think I just pooped a little.

Is that relevant?

Csimbi

(01:11 PM EST - Nov,16 2012 )

Yes, the "who will save us from MS" is a better question.
Ubuntu has come a long way, so my bet is on that; with the exception of gaming, it has everything I'd need.
Having said that, I still don't understand why MS wants to screw gamers when that's the only thing keeping people on Windows...

Penetreitor

(02:12 PM EST - Nov,16 2012 )

They forgot Windows 2000 (that was pretty good). I've never used Windows Me, I've never used Vista, and I've no intention at all to use Windows 8.
Why change my Windows 7?, it's the best OS actually...

Ceriden

(03:31 PM EST - Nov,16 2012 )

quote:Microsoft has three product lines that underpin everything, Windows, Windows Server, and Windows Mobile/Phone/WART/whatevertheynameitthisweek. On those, the other moneymakers, Office and Exchange, run exclusively. The apps use protocols that are locked down with dubious methods, and will not run on any competition.
I do not understand this part. Microsoft has both Office 365 and Skydrive neither of which care what you are using. And a simple search reveals that yes Exchange does run on Android.
I'm really not sure what SemiAccurate is going on about here.

Tom

(03:51 PM EST - Nov,16 2012 )

I'm so fucking sick of Windows 8 this and that bs. Windows 8 sucks, their new phone sucks end of story. Nothing need more to be said about M$. Report on gaming, you know like the fact COD made 500million in 24hrs. Sometimes I swear, is this techamok or GAMEGURU?! Ya COD might suck but it's gaming news that most every gaming site has already reported.

Apathy Curve

(10:36 AM EST - Nov,17 2012 )

Bob called; he wants his fail back.

Stumpus

(06:15 PM EST - Nov,18 2012 )

Save MS from themselves, they are actually digesting themselves from the inside out. Lol. Staff are asking themselves, who are we again? Who do we work for, what do we do?. Remember they make nothing, everyone else does it for them..... You are windows 7, you are windows 8... I am not a number I am a free man!

Baconnaise

(09:23 PM EST - Nov,18 2012 )

Csimbi> Yes, the "who will save us from MS" is a better question.
Ubuntu has come a long way, so my bet is on that; with the exception of gaming, it has everything I'd need.
Having said that, I still don't understand why MS wants to screw gamers when that's the only thing keeping people on Windows...

I'd be running ubuntu or linuxmint right now if it wasn't for the game umbilical cord. I know I'm not the only one that feels they would make the switch and learn (if they had to) a completely different OS just to get away from windows. It doesn't hurt that it's free.

Tom

(09:25 AM EST - Nov,19 2012 )

@Baconnaise

I'm sure it's just a matter of time. Steam however is not enough to move me over unless all my games will work on it. To me drivers are the biggest and continuing headache on Linux and not just video, sound support is prehistoric on Linux too.

Csimbi

(10:51 AM EST - Nov,19 2012 )

Nvidia drivers are getting better.
Alsa supports quite a few chipsets nowadays. XBMC does 7.1 audio already on Ubuntu - thought I use on S/PDIF to connect it to the received - so I don't see why games wouldn't be able to do, say, 5.1 audio.
So, I'm not worried - unless of course you buy a specific sound card.