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October 6, 2004 - Debate Gives Kerry 3-Point Edge In New Jersey,
Quinnipiac University Poll Finds;
But Voters Say Bush Acts More Like A Leader

Democratic challenger John Kerry has moved into a very narrow 49 - 46 percent lead over
President George W. Bush among New Jersey likely voters, with 2 percent for
independent candidate Ralph Nader, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released
today.

This compares to a 48 - 48 percent Bush-Kerry tie among likely voters, with 2
percent for Nader, in a September 21 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-
ack) University.

Among registered voters backing President Bush, 82 percent say they are voting
more for the President. Among Kerry supporters, 42 percent say they are voting more
for the Democrat while 52 percent say they are voting more against Bush.

By a 52 - 40 percent margin, New Jersey voters say it was wrong for the United
States to go to war in Iraq, little changed from previous polls.

"It's not safely in Sen. Kerry's pocket, but the skies are a little bluer - Democratic
bluer - in New Jersey," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University
Polling Institute. "While Kerry got a bump from the debate, New Jersey is still a
squeaker. Memories of September 11 still lead voters to list terrorism as their number
one issue, a concern that favors President Bush."

"The vote still looks like Bush vs. Bush. Most of Kerry's supporters aren't so
much for putting the Democrat in the White House as they are for throwing out Bush,"
Carroll added.

Among the 76 percent of New Jersey voters who watched the first presidential
debate:

50 percent say they have a more favorable opinion of Kerry because of the debate,
while 9 percent say less favorable and 40 percent say the debate did not change their
opinion;

7 percent have a more favorable opinion of Bush, while 26 percent say less favorable
and 65 percent say the debate did not change their opinion.

Looking at presidential qualities, voters say 49 - 41 percent that Bush acts more
like a leader than Kerry, and 52 - 35 percent that Bush is doing a better job explaining
what he will do as President.

Given four choices, 31 percent of New Jersey voters list terrorism as the most
important issue in the presidential race, followed by 29 percent who list the economy, 24
percent who list the situation in Iraq and 12 percent who list health care.

Asked who would do a better job on these issues, New Jersey voters say:

52 - 38 percent that Bush would do a better job on terrorism;

47 - 42 percent that Kerry would do a better job on the economy;

49 - 42 percent that Bush would do a better job on Iraq;

53 - 33 percent that Kerry would do a better job on health care.

From October 1 - 4, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,184 New Jersey
registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. The survey
includes 819 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts
public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Florida
and nationally as a public service and for research.
For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks or call (203) 582-5201.

TREND: If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates
were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican and Ralph Nader the
Independent, for whom would you vote?

TREND: If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates
were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican and Ralph Nader the
Independent, for whom would you vote?
(If undecided) As of today, do you lean more to Kerry, Bush, or Nader?
This table includes 'Leaners'.

1. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates
were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican, and Ralph Nader
the Independent for whom would you vote?
(If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more to Kerry, Bush, or Nader?
This table includes 'Leaners'

4. (If "Nader" q1 or lean to Nader) What if Ralph Nader were not running?
If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were
John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you
vote?
This table includes 'Leaners'.