Hurricane CELIA (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI JUL 23 2004
CELIA HAS A SHAPELESS CLOUD PATTERN AND CONSISTS OF A FEW CELLS OF
DEEP CONVECTION WITH A DISRUPTED OUTFLOW. INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON EARLIER 0307Z SSMI WHICH SHOWS A VERY SMALL AREA OF 35
KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS NEARING COOLER WATERS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGES
SHOW THAT CELIA IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LOW. THEREFORE...
WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER... A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST FOR A FEW DAYS PRODUCING INTERMETTENT CONVECTION.
CELIA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS. A RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE WILL PROVIDE A WESTWARD STEERING DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS MOTION IS CONSISTENT WITH TRACK GUIDANCE.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/0900Z 16.4N 125.1W 35 KT
12HR VT 23/1800Z 16.5N 126.5W 30 KT
24HR VT 24/0600Z 16.5N 128.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 24/1800Z 16.6N 130.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 25/0600Z 16.5N 132.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
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