Turks and Kurds Amassing on Their Sides of the Border, ISIS Takes Advantage in Raqqa, Russia Trying to Broker Peace

Turkey has started airstrikes on YPG/US held NE Syria but no ground invasion yet

Turks seem anxious to get the ball rolling to show the rules have changed and preemt a possible U-turn so typical of Trump with new facts on the ground. To this end they’re already shelling Kurdish targets across the border, but they’ve also carried out airstrikes (at least one of them deep in Kurdish-held territory) which would have been a no-no before Trump’s withdrawal from the border zone.

Turkey's @cnnturk reports what appear to be two separate airstrikes hit the Syrian town of Ras al Ain, controlled by the Kurdish SDF #now amid expectations a Turkish offensive would begin today.

However it seems Trump’s green light for an invasion has caught the Turks as much by surprise as it has the Pentagon and the Kurds, so they need to do more troop movement before they can strike in earnest. That is exactly what they seem to be doing however, with numerous reports of troops and armor moving to various sections of the border.

For their part the Kurds are likewise assembling at the border, bringing in reinforcement from all over of their quite extensive fief. Their authorities have even instructed civilians to take up arms and join the troops at the border.

The odds do not favor the Kurds however. Not only are they lightly armed but the terrain is flat and open and the border with Turkey they hold is extremely long so the Turks can pick and chose where to pour through in overwhelming numbers (if they’re smart).

Meanwhile ISIS took advantage of the unenviable position of the YPG by crawling from the underground in Raqqa but was put down.

Russia has formally notified PYD that it is urgently negotiating terms of reconciliation with the Government. Unprecedented population pressure in the east of the country on the SDF to prevent an unforeseen massacre in the event of war. There is little time.