Tatsuma:By the time Assad falls, there won't be any chemical or biological weapons left.

I would expect that would be because neighboring powers would have incinerated them by now. That's the surprising bit for me; everybody knows he has chemical agents, everybody knows Assad isn't going to last and everybody knows the rebelling forces aren't all "free Syria" types.

What I would have expected to happen is bunkers being incinerated by somebody by now. Jordan, Turkey and Israel all have the capacity to destroy the bunkers. They all have interests in not allowing that stuff to exist on their border. Why any of them have allowed that stuff to continue to exist is beyond me.

Tatsuma:LasersHurt: Well that's... fun. For certain definitions of "fun."

Pretty much. I am an Israeli citizen, therefore I obey all laws of the State of Israel. I'm not going to rush and post things I know on the internet to impress a few strangers for being connected to (rather low-level, really) military knowledge when spewing these things all over the internet would put people in danger, some of them friends of mine. Loose lips sink ships is very real in Israel.

Tatsuma:Pretty much. I am an Israeli citizen, therefore I obey all laws of the State of Israel. I'm not going to rush and post things I know on the internet to impress a few strangers for being connected to (rather low-level, really) military knowledge when spewing these things all over the internet would put people in danger, some of them friends of mine. Loose lips sink ships is very real in Israel.

dr_blasto:I would expect that would be because neighboring powers would have incinerated them by now.

I meant that as in 'Israel will have taken care of them'.

dr_blasto:What I would have expected to happen is bunkers being incinerated by somebody by now.

Well the reason they weren't is twofold:

1 - Will Assad really fall?2 - Will he use those chemical weapons?

Even right now, it is not assured that Assad is going to be removed from power. It's not even 'likely'. It's a completely unknown outcome at this point, as long as it stays an internal conflict (well, as internal as it can be when Iran is pouring in weapons and fighters, and the Arab states are backing the rebels).

If Assad had not used those weapons, Israel most likely would not have greenlit that strike. Assad in power having those chemical weapons, while definitely not optimal, is not much of a problem as long as these weapons stay in bunkers and he's not trying to give them to terrorist groups. He's never going to fire them himself on Israel.

Once it looks like he's about to fall AND he's using them on the populace, whose to say that some of the troops meant to fire them at civilians won't defect with them? That's why Israel is stepping up right now.

dr_blasto:Surprised Israel has taken this long to do anything. With the crazy civil war next store, reports of Assad having chemical weapons (before the reports of using them), I figured they'd strike depots early to avoid those weapons getting distributed to the crazies. Also surprised Turkey hasn't done anything either.

If/when Assad falls, there's a strong likelihood that the storage facilities get raided by rebels. If that crap falls into the wrong hands, like the crazy fundies instead of the FSA, every border country is at risk.

I think it had a lot to do with timing.

Israel has always been the US "deputy" in the Middle East for World Police. When the US and sane Arabic country need a job done, it's Israel who is willing to do the job.

It's hady for the following reasons1) US/UN/NATO keeps their hands clean. Justifies their government investment into Israel.2) Arabic countries won't be deemed traitors for attacking one of its own (see Sadam Huseuien )3) Israel is already hated-so they don't care what anyone else thinks. But at least they remind everyone they are still badasses.

Pretty much. I am an Israeli citizen, therefore I obey all laws of the State of Israel. I'm not going to rush and post things I know on the internet to impress a few strangers for being connected to (rather low-level, really) military knowledge when spewing these things all over the internet would put people in danger, some of them friends of mine. Loose lips sink ships is very real in Israel.

What I can post about, I certainly will, on the other hand.

Ah, I guess we miss out on all of the secret alien technology and chem-trails then.

Tatsuma:dr_blasto: I would expect that would be because neighboring powers would have incinerated them by now.

I meant that as in 'Israel will have taken care of them'.

dr_blasto: What I would have expected to happen is bunkers being incinerated by somebody by now.

Well the reason they weren't is twofold:

1 - Will Assad really fall?2 - Will he use those chemical weapons?

Even right now, it is not assured that Assad is going to be removed from power. It's not even 'likely'. It's a completely unknown outcome at this point, as long as it stays an internal conflict (well, as internal as it can be when Iran is pouring in weapons and fighters, and the Arab states are backing the rebels).

If Assad had not used those weapons, Israel most likely would not have greenlit that strike. Assad in power having those chemical weapons, while definitely not optimal, is not much of a problem as long as these weapons stay in bunkers and he's not trying to give them to terrorist groups. He's never going to fire them himself on Israel.

Once it looks like he's about to fall AND he's using them on the populace, whose to say that some of the troops meant to fire them at civilians won't defect with them? That's why Israel is stepping up right now.

fark letting Al-Nusra or Hizbullah get their hands on these weapons.

I don't think Assad is going to stay no matter how shiat goes down; if he quashes the rebellion, he still won't have control over the entire state--worst case is he does the typical post-rebellion mass slaughter of his own people, but he isn't likely to maintain control over the same area. I'd expect him to be dead within a few months of that. Either way, though, stability is going to be a problem. There's going to be power struggles, infighting and whatnot. All it takes is one General to trade some weaponry off for support in his bid to the guy in charge.

dr_blasto:I don't think Assad is going to stay no matter how shiat goes down; if he quashes the rebellion, he still won't have control over the entire state--worst case is he does the typical post-rebellion mass slaughter of his own people, but he isn't likely to maintain control over the same area. I'd expect him to be dead within a few months of that. Either way, though, stability is going to be a problem. There's going to be power struggles, infighting and whatnot. All it takes is one General to trade some weaponry off for support in his bid to the guy in charge.

Well he could go down the Saddam route and kill half a million people and fashion himself a throne out of their bones. He's been doing a great job so far.

Techhell:Was it Anderson Cooper or Wolf Blitzer reporting on Ted Turner? If it's Cooper, I'm going to give it the benefit of the doubt. If it's Blitzer, I'm going to have to wait for the follow up report "I checked with Dr. Sanjay Gupta and yes, the initial report of five extra penii was inaccurate; the source was simply shaking Mr. Turner's hand and noticed he had fingers."

But David, we wonderWe wonder if the thunderIs ever really gonna beginBegin, beginYour mom says"I've lost my boy"But she should knowWhy you've goneBecause again and again you've explainedYou've gone to theNationalTo the NationalTo the National Front disco

Tatsuma:dr_blasto: I don't think Assad is going to stay no matter how shiat goes down; if he quashes the rebellion, he still won't have control over the entire state--worst case is he does the typical post-rebellion mass slaughter of his own people, but he isn't likely to maintain control over the same area. I'd expect him to be dead within a few months of that. Either way, though, stability is going to be a problem. There's going to be power struggles, infighting and whatnot. All it takes is one General to trade some weaponry off for support in his bid to the guy in charge.

Well he could go down the Saddam route and kill half a million people and fashion himself a throne out of their bones. He's been doing a great job so far.

And then we can "help" "free" them and watch as half a million more die in the ensuing utter clusterfark we cause.

We won't go in and help without 1) a clear indication of who the next leader will likely be and 2) no interference from China and Russia. I guarantee that if we do go in, Hezbollah will go nuts on Israel.

My bet: a coalition does go in, Hezbollah goes nuts, Iran does something retarded, and then it gets complicated. Fun times ahead.

well...nothing other than the fact that the rest of the world is going to think Israel is being a prick. Which we already knew. But I guess for some reason Israel felt the need to remind the world that they're ok with beating up on people weaker than themselves for no reason other than they can.

It reminded me of short bullies in school who only beat up kids who were shorter than they. Kick them when they're down I guess.