War with Pakistan imminent

New Delhi, Dec 23 (IANS) ‘Time is running out’ for Pakistan with the deadline of Dec 26 given by New Delhi to Islamabad for a crackdown on terror infrastructure approaching, said a report of a leading publisher of geopolitical intelligence Tuesday.

The report from Stratfor says that after the Nov 26 Mumbai attacks, India relayed a message to Pakistan via the US that they would be given ’30 days to carry out significant actions in cracking down on Islamist militant proxies operating on Pakistani soil that continue to threaten India’.

Islamabad has been denying that the terrorists who attacked Mumbai killing at least 170 people were from Pakistan.

‘Pakistan’s deadline, as far as we know, is Dec 26, making Indian military action against Pakistan a very real and near possibility. The Indians have had a month to prepare their military operations against Pakistan, and Indian defence sources have revealed that these plans are ready to go into effect,’ the report said.

‘While India used the time to prepare its military forces, the US came down hard on Pakistan behind the scenes, making clear that Islamabad will have to deliver on India’s demands or else Washington will not be able to stand in New Delhi’s way if and when the time comes for India to act,’ the report, based on intelligence reports, reads.

The intelligence analysts observed that Pakistan has made a few arrests and raids targeting militant leaders and Pakistani intelligence operatives, but has done nothing that substantially reduced the militant threat to India from New Delhi’s point of view.

‘And even if Pakistan was prepared to swallow the bitter pill of conceding to its main rival by cutting its militant ties, it can only go so far to placate India before it creates a domestic crisis in trying to avoid an international one,’ Stratfor said.

However, the report said, that it is still unclear how far India will take this military campaign and to what extent the US operations in Afghanistan will be affected.

Discussions are taking place inside Indian defence circles over an escalatory military campaign, beginning with largely symbolic strikes in Pakistan-administered Kashmir against militant training camps and offices.

Depending on Pakistan’s ability to respond, pressure could then be ratcheted up with precision air strikes in Pakistan’s urban areas – to include the capital – against intelligence facilities and militant leadership hideouts.

The option of a naval blockade, which would cut off the US’ main supply line into Afghanistan, has also been tossed around. While a blockade would put the already cash-strapped Pakistan in an economic choke, doing so would inevitably cause friction in India’s relationship with Washington.

The intelligence publisher reported that the US, knowing its ‘limitations’ of the relationship with New Delhi, is already preparing for ‘a worst-case scenario’.

‘For the past month, the US military has been feverishly stockpiling supplies for its forces in Afghanistan in anticipation of a major interruption,’ said the report.India, Pakistan: Signs of a Coming War
December 24, 2008 | 2002 GMT

Several major signs of a coming Indian-Pakistani war surfaced Dec. 24.

Indian troops reportedly have deployed to the Barmer district of
southwest Rajasthan state along the Indian-Pakistani border.
Furthermore, the state government of Rajasthan has ordered residents
of its border villages to be prepared for relocation. The decision
reportedly came after a meeting among the state’s director-general of
police, home secretary and an official from the central government.
Stratfor confirmed the report with an Indian army officer.

According to India’s ZeeNews, the Pakistani army replaced the Pakistan
Rangers that regularly patrol the border with India. The Pakistani
troop movements were later confirmed by U.K. Bansal, the additional
director-general of India’s Border Security Force (BSF) in Barmer,
Rajasthan.

As Stratfor reported Dec. 22, there is a high probability of India
using military force against Pakistan after Dec. 26, when a deadline
expires for Pakistan to deliver on Indian demands to crack down on
Islamist militant proxies that threaten India. With low expectations
that Pakistan has the will or capability to deliver on these demands,
India has spent the past month preparing for military action against
Pakistan. Pressure is now ratcheting up on both sides of the border,
with Indian Air Marshal P.K. Barbora, air officer commanding-in-chief
of the Western Air Command, telling reporters Dec. 24 that as many as
5,000 targets in Pakistan have thus far been identified, while saying
that many of the militants hiding out in camps in Pakistan-occupied
Kashmir have already fled.
Map: India-Pakistan border, provinces

It should be noted that the area of Rajasthan where Indian troops are
deploying and where villagers are preparing to evacuate is a long
distance from Kashmir, where conflict between India and Pakistan
typically takes place. Barmer district is adjacent to Jaisalmer
district, where India’s Southwestern Air Command is located. Any
attacks based out of the Barmer district would involve mechanized and
armored forces that could threaten the core
Karachi-Hyderabad-Islamabad corridor — Pakistan’s only transit
corridor that links the Pakistani heartland of Punjab with the coast.
Given that cash-strapped Pakistan is a net food and energy importer
and is already flirting with bankruptcy, India has a military
opportunity at hand to cut off Pakistan’s economic lifeline.
Furthermore, a potential cutoff would likely complicate the flow of
fuel and supplies to U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan.

Any ground troop movement in southwestern Rajasthan is likely to be
accompanied by air strikes against militant targets outside of Kashmir
and possibly against intelligence facilities in Pakistan’s urban
areas.

The timing of Indian military action is still unclear, as it will take
some time for India to mobilize its forces and evacuate locals along
the border area. But given these recent troop movements, it could be a
matter of days before the world witnesses another Indian-Pakistani
war.

Pakistan’s military needs a war hysteria and a token war with India to undermine the democratic government of Zardari. That is a way for ISI and military brass to keep driving the nation’s agenda. I don’t think India’s leadership will fall into this trap. Instead the country could get concessions from the US for allowing it to continue to focus on the western border of Pakistan.

Pakistani people are really not very different from the Indians. However, the media there is spreading war hysteria. The country’s air force is burning fuel and causing unnecessary wear and tear to their air force planes in a self serving purpose.

GODsaid

I M HERE TO ENSURE YOU GUY’S RIGHT NOW ONLY PAKISTANI GOVERNMENT , PAKISTANI ARMY NAVY AND AIR FORCE AND PEOPLE OF INDIA WHO LOVES PAKISTAN AND SUPPORT PAKISTAN (YOU KNOW I MEAN THE ALL MUSLIM OF INDIA )AND PEOPLE OF PAKISTAN BECAUSE OUR BELOVED(KHAN’S OF BOLLYWOOD )TRY TO APPEASE THEM IN PANIC BECAUSE THEY KNOW OF THE POWER OF INDIAN FORCES
SO DON’T BE AFRAID OUR FORCES REACHES ON BORDER’S IN ONLY 4 HRS AND WE ENTERED IN ONLY 16 HRS IN PAKISTAN AND WE CAPTURED PAKISTAN IN ONLY 24 HRS BUT AS YOU KNOW THE ALLAH KE BANDE ALSO HAVE NUKE POWER SO THEY CAN DESTROY OUR 1/2 CITIES BUT WE DESTROYED THEM FROM THERE ROOTS