No degree needed to identify must-wins

Updated 11:44 pm, Wednesday, February 20, 2013

When I went to college oh so many years ago, students - believe it or not - could not major in Bracketology.

So in this era of full disclosure, please realize that what you're reading comes from an uncredentialed bracketologist.

For discussion: What do Cal and St. Mary's have to do in the next three weeks or so to put themselves in solid position for an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament, assuming neither wins its conference tourney?

In general, at-large candidates with a Rating Percentage Index (RPI) of 40 or better own strong cases for receiving one of the 37 at-large berths. Teams with RPIs between 41 and 65 can be hopeful but not confident. Teams with RPIs worse than 65 usually plan for one of the lesser postseason tournaments - or simply for next season.

The Bears' RPI through Sunday was 53, the Gaels' was 47.

Cal has a minimum of six games remaining: at the Oregon schools, home to Utah, Colorado and Stanford, and a Pac-12 tournament matchup. Knowing a bad loss (usually considered one at home to a team not in the RPI Top 50 or on the road to a team with a really poor RPI) late in the season does considerable damage to a team's credentials, the Bears probably cannot afford to fall to the Beavers (RPI 173), Utes (172) or Cardinal (73).

If Cal wins two of those other three games, it should be able to lean toward confident on the hopeful-confident scale.

St. Mary's has a minimum of five games left: home to BYU and Creighton, at Pepperdine, home to Santa Clara and a WCC tournament matchup. In the context of avoiding bad losses, the Gaels probably must beat the Waves (191) and Broncos (95).

If St. Mary's wins two of those other three games, it would seem to be in pretty good shape - particularly if it beats the Bluejays (43); the Gaels don't have a victory over a Top 50 RPI team.

Even lacking a bracketology degree, it's pretty obvious St. Mary's needs a win over Creighton.

Latest from the SFGATE homepage:

Click below for the top news from around the Bay Area and beyond. Sign up for our newsletters to be the first to learn about breaking news and more. Go to 'Sign In' and 'Manage Profile' at the top of the page.