From the HEAD LINES MATTER department. Sometimes you just have to shake your head and wonder, did you know what you just said?

Case in point, Eric Blake, from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) tweeted September 7th:

And that Tweet has the takeaway “Never seen anything like this in the modern record” and spawned this story from MSN, quoting Blake: Note the headline using his takeaway phrase slightly modified.

The lead-in to that story reads:

For the first time in modern history, three hurricanes in the Atlantic are lined up in the most dangerous of ways, according to Eric Blake, a hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center.

Here’s where that takeway from Blake runs off the rails. Recall back in 2010 we had a trio of hurricanes that looks very much like what Blake claimed was a first by saying “Never seen anything like this in the modern record”.

In 2010, three hurricanes churned in the Atlantic Basin, Karl, (left in the Gulf), Hurricane Igor (center), which struck Bermuda as a Category 1 storm and then later the Canadian island of Newfoundland as a tropical cyclone, according to the National Hurricane Center, and Julia (right).

According to Blake’s Twitter exchange, after “Yannick” brought up that image from 2010, Blake says he’s only referencing a trio of hurricanes that “threaten land”:

Distorted to make it look similar? He’s spinning, and Ellen Bemben is right. Blake said in his initial tweet with the three images:

Many people on Twitter and other social media equated “land” to be the USA, they don’t think about tiny islands like the Leeward Islands, most couldn’t even point them out on a map. People just don’t see the fine distinction about the “threatening land” because from their perspective, all the hurricanes are a threat, and they think “USA”, not Leeward islands. It really doesn’t enter into their thought process at all.

While Blake is technically correct about the “threatening land” part of his tweet, the takeway phrase is the one that got “legs” and is running the opposite direction he intended.

And, now that image from Yannick comparing three Atlantic Hurricanes in 2010 and 2017 is getting heavy play on social media, and Blake is being excoriated for the headline thanks to the law of unintended consequences.

Blake would do well to simply say he made a mistake, or didn’t choose his words carefully, and notify MSN so they can correct the headline. Despite his claims on his Twitter profile (bold mine)…

…I’d bet that NHC would want to correct this word blunder, as they strive to be factual. MSN connects Blake and NHC in their article, so his caveat is for naught.

UPDATE: I put this story on hold yesterday, because he’s made an honest mistake and I was pretty sure he’d correct it so the headline would get fixed. I had hoped someone at NHC or professional acquaintances would nudge Blake, and he’d work to correct the misconception. Nope. I contacted Blake today on Twitter, and he wasn’t at all receptive:

Now if you could fix ur blunder on "never before seen" 3x hurricanes, you'd be in the same league with NHC's "solidness" People arent buying

He would do better to recognise that the fact of whether they are all in a position to “threaten land” at any one time is not significant to how usual/unusual this kind of alignment is, rather than using that as his get out clause.

Another interesting similarity is that the “K” hurricane is in the Gulf and churning around Veracruz, the “I” hurricane is the largest of the 3 and between the “K” and “J” storms and the “J” hurricane is farthest east.
In both cases the alphabetical l J K are ordered K I J

He just hoped his power and influence in the progressive’s “new science” industry might deter any fact based disagreements. Then he justified his alarmism using a questionable qualifier of the validity of his original statement.
Seems that Twitter proves “sometimes it’s best to leave unsaid, the things that pop into your head” for a number of influential people.

Jump to the left….no jump back to the right…now jump left again…..now try to jump back right when there’s no where to go everything is full……and they have the nerve to talk about how beautiful it is blah blah…and write your SS number on your arm
Everyone is sopissed they can’t see straight

Hey vuk, we’re in Hernando…of course went to Naples first on the recommendation of the NHC
..no one can get to the east coast now, it’s full
Has to be over 20 million evaced or on the road now….and that’s not counting tourists
I75 north of Tampa was a parking lot…took 41 backroads was clear and had a great drive up
Getting back might be impossible….

I am here in Orlando. Friends up north called and asked why I was not on the road headed to Tennessee or further north. Well, because I don’t want to be in a car stuck on the road when a major cane got to me. I want to at least be in a house (where I am now).

If I was on the coast, I would have left days ago and might be to the state line by now. (or stranded without gas, who knows)

It is not easy when 5 million plus people all decided to head north at the same time.

Mark, look at wind on ventusky….I don’t see anything to worry about up here. I don’t think you would ever get out of Wildwood right now, if what I saw on 75 is any indication….and you’re right there’s no gas, anywhere that I can find.
It’s a lot more than 5 million….they have that number from what they called mandatory areas….There’s a lot more than that from nonmandatory and tourists. I would guess closer to 10

All that back an forth chaos due mostly to faulty computer models. Seems like it would be a good time for the news media (at least those without a CAGW/NWO agenda) to point out the model errors made when forecasting only days ahead let alone decades and the resultant chaos due to these errors. They have caused many people to run into the path of the storm.

Don’t forget that some of them are allegedly gender “neutral” or gender “fluid”! Whatever that means? Probably a triumph of rebellion over nature. Good luck with that!

A meaningful discussion is impossible when the person whom you are having a discussion with, regards their own subjective thought processes as superior, to others whose also,subjective thought processes they regard as invalid. Once the argument changes to logical and objective thinking, they are like a duck out of the water, hysteria, threats and violence dominate the “discussion.”

The Western education system and modern parental “skills” have a lot to answer for!

Yes, that crowd’s ideology utterly fails the logic test, but seeing that coming they have decided to also reject logic (along with biology and science in general) as just another tool of oppression from the old white guys. Post Modernism and its spawn will not be good for this next generation.

Looks like the film; “The Day After Tomorrow” transcends “An Inconvenient Truth” as the new reference work for AGW. No doubt the expression “The truth can be stranger than fiction” will also be spouted by these idiots who seem to have more grant money and publicity than brains.

So, he did basically what Rush Limbaugh said, and got ripped for, five days ago. Bedwetter. Where does the swamp NOT exist? They did manage to evacuate Miami and most of south Florida to Tampa and Orlando. Good job guys!

Holy mackerel. Looking like Rush was exactly right. Very plausible right now that, with latest track glancing very western edge of peninsula, this doesn’t even make direct landfall until the panhandle and then only as a Cat 1 after encountering both shear and dry air. Wow. Very plausible, at this moment, that evacuees, all 7 million of them, encounter hurricane conditions where they evacuated TO than where they evacuated from. Good job climate bedwetters.

Unprecedented Irma never seen of such magnitude in the universe before is going to sputter up the coast of Cuba losing energy all the way. Its arms are over Florida and Cuba, not the ocean. Probably sputters up to Mobile much weaker than now.

Wholeheartedly. People didn’t need to leave 3 days ago though and could have just driven 40 miles inland towards the end, if likely threatened by the eye. Surge evacuees are one thing, but evacuees who left because they saw the wind damage in the Caribbean are something else. Climate bedwetters scared a lot of people to death. It’s very plausible right now that most evacuees will be threatened by hurricane conditions, inland tree falls and flooding where they evacuated to than where they evacuated from. Yikes!

I agree.
This should be one of he first questions for the red/blue team if activated.
Require the warmers to make a list of past and other climate changes that have occurred and be required to provide a written scientific documentation of each claim. Potential start of list:
More Hurricanes
More Tornadoes
More Draughts
Negative impact on Agriculture
Acceleration in sea level rise
Demise of Polar Bears

Add:
Ocean “acidification”
Bleaching of coral reefs
Actual reason for there not being the “pause” that even the IPCC acknowledged occurred.
Increased wildfires
Increased drought longevity and intensity

“The last time the Atlantic had three tropical cyclones active at once was Sept. 13, 2013, according to Dr. Phil Klotzbach, a tropical scientist at Colorado State University. On that day, Tropical Storm Ingrid was soaking eastern Mexico while Gabrielle and Humberto were in the Atlantic.

“It’s not uncommon to have multiple tropical cyclones active in the Atlantic simultaneously during the busiest part of the season, typically August into October. Records show that every year from 1998-2013 had three active tropical cyclones at once in the Atlantic during some point in the season.

“In fact, twice in history there were four hurricanes in the Atlantic at the same time. That occurred on Aug. 22, 1893 and Sept. 25, 1998.”

And of course we’ve all learned that 1926 had three major hurricanes at once (twice): #4 of Cat 4, September 1–21 (which didn’t hit land); #5 of Cat 2, September 10-14 (no land) and #7 of Cat 4, September 11-22, the infamous Miami Hurricane. There was also #8 of Cat 2, September 21 to October 1, but it didn’t hit land, either. It did however mean there were yet again three hurricanes after #5 dissipated.

First WX satellite was in 1959, but didn’t provide much useful info. It was followed by two other not very successful experiments. The first successful WX satellite was TIROS-1, launched by NASA on April Fools’ Day, 1960.

It occurs to me that tidal the and geographic context of the storm is not really historically unprecedented, but the political and cultural context might be.
I swear, I think folk in the future will be writing books on this madness.
I’m surrounded by highly educated people that have lost their political and scientific minds.

Eric is not not very graceful.
He screwed up and is too prideful to simply admit it.
The current reality does not have the distant Atlantic storm hitting land either.
The key to holes is to stop digging.
Eric seems to be a busy digger.

He didn’t learn how to lie from Dr. Bill Gray and neither, apparently, did he learn his science from Dr. Gray:

Gray has taken quite a bit of political heat for insistence that global warming is not a man-made condition. Man-made carbon dioxide (CO2) is negligible, he said, compared to the amount of CO2 Mother Nature makes and disposes of each day or century.

“We’ve reached the top of the heat cycle,” he said. “The next 10 years will be hardly any warmer than the last 10 years.” [Ed. He is on track to being exactly right: UAH and RSS have shown no significant warming since he said this in 2008.] … .”

This morning I watched a Weather Channel “weather boy” who is detailed to wait out Hurricane Irma at a hotel on the west side Key West which has a average elevation of 4-7 ft (high of about 13 ft). I expect that no one will find his body, or those of the stay-behind first responders, in the floating debris field.https://www.nrdc.org/sites/default/files/ClimateWaterFS_MiamiFL.pdf

If any of the highway bridges between Key West and Miami fail, or are destroyed, it will be weeks/months before people can return to their homes in Key West…but let’s hope for the best… Well they could fly in…

Joe Bastardi has posted his Saturday Summary video and the news is not good! IMO Joe and his Weatherbell team are as good as any at forecasting the track and intensity of storms. He is adamant that Irma will go north and blow back up again then come ashore in the vicinity of Port Charlotte, FL as a CAT V with wind gusts of 150 mph. Devastating.https://www.weatherbell.com/premium/#joe-bastardi

At our vacation home in Port Charlotte the hurricane shutters are up and nobody is home but the neighbors on each side that are permanent residents have stayed. This is going to be bad, bad, bad. all along the West coast up through Tampa.

I respect Joe Bastardi and his forecasts. He said days ago that the storm would not go up the middle of FL but go ether up the east coast or the wast coast of Florida. He seems to be right…I just hope that the intensity because of the interaction with Cuba will not be as bad as predicted…my niece lives in Key West (did not leave during Wilma, but did now thankfully). Now she is in northern FL, but may experience some major effects of the Irma…

Joe is also forecasting that Jose is going to be a problem for the US. Thinks it will get knocked down in intensity and then strengthen again to a CAT 3. Right now he think is it likely to strike the east coast around Cape Hatteras. But that’s a good ways into the future.

I believe Mr. Blake was attempting to say indirectly that things are much worse today [because of climate change]. But after he put his sign high up in the tree, people started making fun of it. And the climb down wasn’t pretty because when you look up into the tree all you see is the bum of a man carrying down a sign he realized he probably shouldn’t have put up in the tree in the first place.

Not that it matters to this exchange but Jose is now a threat during week 2 on many models.
Looks like the Mid Atlantic to the Northeast have the highest threat, which will likely look different in the coming days.

I had hoped that someone would dig up the 1998 four hurricanes, because the local weatherman – who was/is FAR MORE TRUTHFUL and ACCURATE than Eric – brought this up on Monday, showed the images, and provided the background for those four storms.
It appears that ol’ Eric the Bold has become Eric the Bloviater, and should learn when to shut his mouth or admit he made a serious mistake.
Thanks for the heads up, WUWT, and for doing the right thing.

“While Blake is technically correct about the “threatening land” part of his tweet, the takeway phrase is the one that got “legs” and is running the opposite direction he intended.”

Blake is not “technically correct.

Blake just compared historical apples to predicted grapefruit and claims there are obvious differences.
i.e. current predictions are as good as gospel and can be compared one for one against historical hurricane tracks.
When the picture of hurricane Julia was taken, there was not any surety that the storm would head north.
Just as there is zero surety that Jose will slam into the USA or even threaten more islands.

Blake fully displayed “brainless git” in a public forum while representing the NHC and the US Government.

Now Blake displays deep immaturity by being refusing to correct or better yet, retract his shallow inflammatory statement and immediately making changes to his tweets and avoiding further inflaming his mistake.
Instead, Blake digs his falsehood pit deeper and deeper till only the religious faithful will think “Blake is a credible meteorologist”.

If Blake can not control his twitter immaturity or be scientist enough to correct misconceptions he caused, then Blake shouldn’t be in the NHC masquerading as a neutral scientist.
Especially since Blake prefers twisting history in a futile pretense that Blake accurately stated hurricane fact.

Blake is rightfully excoriated for the headlines he caused.
Blake should be prevented from publishing anything or speaking to the pubic without a truly credible scientist first approving the statement.
If Blake can not control himself, his fingers and his mouth then the NHC should consider finding a publicly credible meteorologist.

heck with more than 5 million on the road getting out of dodge it is probably a good thing they are jammed up because if they weren’t the death toll from the evacuation alone may well come close to matching the Andrew total.
This truck driver doesn’t have to go down to Florida anymore and I’m darn glad of it. Sometimes it seems like those Blue hairs down in “Gods waiting room” are tired of waiting.

Still go there some times. This year several runs to Casa Grande and Nogales. Arizona and about all the west with the exception of LA is a joy to drive in compared to the east coast. I-95 from Boston to Richmond is the Armpit of truck driving.

Used to enjoy the drive down to Laredo, TX but I-35 has gotten so bad now from Waco down through San Antonio it’s just a chore. I’ll be glad when they get I-69 put in down there. There was a time a few years ago when Texas was talking about putting in a toll road just for trucks down that way. At the time I thought it was not a good idea. Now……well…..

Sixto
I may complain and whine but the fact is, if I didn’t enjoy my job I wouldn’t be doing it. I love driving, always have, and so driving is fun most days for me. And believe or not, there is a lot of satisfaction in doing the job when others can’t or won’t and doing it right. And that is what I do. I’m paid a salary to be an “on-call” driver. When things go wrong and a driver doesn’t show up, or there is some screw up, or sometimes when they have a new run to someplace where they need someone to go the first time and then give them feed back for directions for future drivers, or if the weather is forecast to be bad in an area and no drivers want to take the run, I will be one of the five drivers at a terminal with 300 drivers that will be called to go. It keeps the job interesting for me and I get to go different places instead of running to the same places all the time as the majority of drivers do. And it pays well while at the same time I get more home time that if I were getting paid by the mile. I’ll be doing this job as long as my health holds out and I can pass the physical.

I overdue the Snowbird driving bit. My wife is Angla from MN, more Scandinavian than technically Angla, so we see a lot of her compatriots driving when visiting her mom and dad in AZ. The locals debate whether MN or IA license plates are more dangerous.

You’ve survived and thrived despite all the hazards of the freeways and toll roads, enjoying it all the time, so more power to you. Especially if your family is OK with your extended absences. It sounds as if your schedule is ideal though, if you aren’t gone for long stretches every week.

This summer driving season has been hard on drivers, between smoke in the West and wind and wet in the East and South.

The death toll in the past was due to lack of forecasting, poor evacuation, and the wrong sort of ships.. Not strength of hurracane.
Death toll is a very poor measure of hurracane strength only of human tragedy.

Maybe Eric Blake doesn’t understand that engaging in hyperbole without doing due diligence and research first and providing backup can embarrass someone in ways that he will not live down for a very long time.
I know someone else who is just as bad about this kind of thing as Eric Blake, and regularly gets verbally pounded for it.

Sixto, earlier you indicated that 100% of the buildings were wrecked by the 1780 hurricane, a quick check in wiki indicates that most of the buildings were destroyed, a couple of churches St Peter and St Philip on Barbados were untouched . Similarly the catedral de Santa maria la menor built 1540 was still standing. This is not 100% as you stated.

You seem to be a lax in your reporting and are slipping in what Dean Swift stated was not the truth.

Now Barbuda is reporting 95% destruction.in housing and St Martin has trees without bark.
This hurricane has matched the anecdotal and reconstructions evidence for the 1780 event

have to say i didn’t notice the tree with stripped bark when looking at the pictures. the picture i really liked had some people smiling ,relaxing and drinking beer .

i always wondered why in areas of the world where there is an actual named hurricane season people continue to build on low lying land and with materials unsuitable to high wind speeds. why are there no centrally located hurricane shelters in each area ,raised in areas where flooding would be expected.

do people in areas affected like this really think there won’t be another hurricane once the latest one passes. i think it shows either the stupidity or stubbornness of humanity knows no bounds.possibly a bit of both.

The weather report this morning was that Jose will make a loop and head northwest, to pound New England. Probably the Maritime Provinces, too, but that’s Canada and wasn’t included in the weather story. It may, of course, change over the next few days.

Just for perspective, .. I consider myself fairly intelligent, but when I saw that headline with those three images of hurricanes, I took the message literally and simply as presented — namely, as three hurricanes all at once, in a row behind one another, NEVER, EVER seen before in the history of human kind, with an implied message of ominous evil underlying this visual configuration.

Any efforts to defend the headline by appealing to specific storm-path details or predictions of landfall are BS. The raw visceral, visual impact of the image said nothing of these details. And the raw visceral, visual impact of the image with the limited wording of the headline had EXACTLY the effect that those words portrayed, along with its ominous unspoken underpinnings.

In short, this story WAS fake news. And an intelligent person should admit this and maybe even apologize for going for sensationalism at the expense of accurate information.

If a picture is worth a thousand words, then the few words (headline) that accompanies it should be well chosen to indicate whether those thousand words are worth reading in depth. That’s the purpose of headlines.

In a busy world, a person uses headlines as filters to determine what they read in full and what they do not. Abusing this common knowledge with fake headlines is fraudulent, and anybody who tries to defend it on any level is complicit in such a fraud.