Dayton Moore has pushed all his chips in and is riding on King/Jack suited, hoping it comes together, he gets some good luck, and he hits the nuts by the river card. There's potential, oh yes, there's potential. There's also risk.

At the midway point, Dayton is left counting on the river card. The flop and turn didn't help him, and he's looking at the Tigers holding a pair of Queens and the Indians holding a pair of 9s. His 2013 plan hasn't failed - yet - but the odds are not in his favor.

Burning questions updates below.

Burning Questions for 2013:

1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation?

Midseason check-in: Yes, the rotation is certainly improved enough. Shields has pitched like a fringe No. 1 and Santana is having his best season. Guthrie has horrible peripherals but has continued to perform well at his home park and eat innings on the road. Davis brought neither his kick-ass mentality or improved velocity back to the rotation and is in Luke Hochevar/Hiram Davies territory.

2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door?Midseason check-in: It appears, never, at this point. Hochevar has been solid in non-leverage situations, though pretty much every time he has been used with men on base in an inning, it has been a disaster.

3) Does Hosmer bounce back?Midseason check-in: It took some time, but Hosmer's performance from June 1 on is probably the most encouraging thing about the 2013 season so far.
4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012?Midseason check-in: Nope. Moustakas was god-awful, then great for about 3 weeks, then god-awful again. He has been better since he started working with Brett and Grafol but still has a long way to go.
5) Who regresses? Midseason check-in: Welp, Alicides Escobar is not a surprising name here (though Yost's stubborn insistence on hitting him second is ridiculous). Billy Butler is a surprise. He isn't having a terrible year - still contributing a lot to the offense - but he's not hitting for the average or power he has displayed over the past several years.
6) Who plays 2B?Midseason check-in: A whole bunch of people, and not that great. Gio is at least getting a shot, though he once again is not doing much with it.
7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level?Midseason check-in: Hahahahahahahahahahaha
8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014?Midseason check-in: Outlook uncertain. Probably still around, unless the team completely tanks in the second half and he does something foolish. My guess - he sacrifices Ned Yost this offseason and gets one more shot with a new manager in 2014.
9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse?Midseason check-in: Yes. Velocity looks the same, and it looks likely he is the same guy as before.
10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers?Midseason check-in: Doesn't look like it, does it?

1) "Soft" trade market for starting pitching? Don't give me that b.s. (Which I'm sure Dayton Moore or someone in the Royals is shoveling to Dutton). It's the same as it is every year - the best pitchers get big interest.

Dutton can pooh-pooh the Garza return all he wants, but the Cubs still got a consensus top 30 prospect and one of the biggest helium/risers in CJ Edwards of the season (and a PTBNL, which is either Max Ramirez or ANOTHER pitcher in their system of similar value). That's a HAUL for 2 months of Garza.

2) David Lough vs. Alex Rios. You know, Alex Rios is not a superstar. And he's volatile/up-and-down. And he had a really terrible month of June. But as recently as last year he was an .850 OPS guy who hit .300 and slugged .500 (and that's what he has been outside of June this year).

I wouldn't say, outright, that I hate the idea of acquiring Alex Rios. If the price in prospects is low - or if the White Sox pick up part of that salary - it's worth exploring.

1) "Soft" trade market for starting pitching? Don't give me that b.s. (Which I'm sure Dayton Moore or someone in the Royals is shoveling to Dutton). It's the same as it is every year - the best pitchers get big interest.

Dutton can pooh-pooh the Garza return all he wants, but the Cubs still got a consensus top 30 prospect and one of the biggest helium/risers in CJ Edwards of the season (and a PTBNL, which is either Max Ramirez or ANOTHER pitcher in their system of similar value). That's a HAUL for 2 months of Garza.

2) David Lough vs. Alex Rios. You know, Alex Rios is not a superstar. And he's volatile/up-and-down. And he had a really terrible month of June. But as recently as last year he was an .850 OPS guy who hit .300 and slugged .500 (and that's what he has been outside of June this year).

I wouldn't say, outright, that I hate the idea of acquiring Alex Rios. If the price in prospects is low - or if the White Sox pick up part of that salary - it's worth exploring.

My thoughts exactly on Rios.

But if you're gonna throw that kind of money at 30-year-old OFers, how about signing Shin-Soo Choo in the offseason?

But if you're gonna throw that kind of money at 30-year-old OFers, how about signing Shin-Soo Choo in the offseason?

Choo is a great player. Will take more yearly salary and a bigger commitment in terms of years than Rios, but he is a superior player.

Rios at $12.5 million next year is not out-of-control. If things go well, you can get .300/.500 SLG/25 HR from him. I like David Lough, but even if he hits .300, you're looking at a guy who is going to slug around .425.

If they're getting Rios for a song, it's worth the monetary risk, to me. And I'm not sure there is an option KC can obtain that has more 2014 upside than Rios. Could be the position player equivalent of Santana.

Of course, now that I've said that, the Royals will trade for Rios and also trade Santana for a young RF stud who is close to MLB. Rios will suck for a 1/2 while the prospect kills it in Omaha, and the prospect won't get promoted until the Royals are dangerously far behind in the playoff hunt.

I highly doubt the Sox would eat salary. If they would, my perspective changes. However, Rios is a career OPS+ of 102 and hit over 20 HRs in a season only three times in his career. The odds of him significantly underperforming his contract would be very, very high, especially given his age.

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Quote:

Originally Posted by badgirl

If you met me in person and didn't know who I was you would never guess it was me.

I highly doubt the Sox would eat salary. If they would, my perspective changes. However, Rios is a career OPS+ of 102 and hit over 20 HRs in a season only three times in his career. The odds of him significantly underperforming his contract would be very, very high, especially given his age.

What if the trade price is something a slight tick up from Brandon Sisk?

Say, Jason Adam and Fred Ford.

Then, the money is the only issue. You're on the hook for $12.5 million in 2014.

Unless Glass is willing to up the payroll, that probably takes away the possibility of signing anything but a mid-tier starting pitcher in free agency (probably puts a cap of about $6-8 million on what they can spend in FA on pitching).

What if the trade price is something a slight tick up from Brandon Sisk?

Say, Jason Adam and Fred Ford.

Then, the money is the only issue. You're on the hook for $12.5 million in 2014.

Unless Glass is willing to up the payroll, that probably takes away the possibility of signing anything but a mid-tier starting pitcher in free agency (probably puts a cap of about $6-8 million on what they can spend in FA on pitching).

Yeah, I just don't know if you're going to get enough production from Rios to justify essentially being inactive in FA because of salary concerns. Personally, I highly doubt it.

This would be a classic DM disaster move, IMO.

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Quote:

Originally Posted by badgirl

If you met me in person and didn't know who I was you would never guess it was me.