Cowen & Company industry watcher Doug Creutz predicts double-digit dip for September and through end of the year; Madden NFL 13, Borderlands 2, Mists of Pandaria top performers during month.

The NPD Group will report September sales on Thursday, and according to one analyst, they will not be pretty. Cowen & Company industry watcher Doug Creutz released a note to investors today predicting that total packaged game sales dipped 28 percent year-on-year. Madden couldn't save September sales, Creutz says.

A bright spot on the sheet was retail PC games, according to Creutz, who expects sales in this market to surge 101 percent year-over-year based on the launch of World of Warcraft's four expansion, Mists of Pandaria.

The top-performer for September, Creutz predicts, will be Madden NFL 13 at 2.16 million units, followed by Borderlands 2 at 1.57 million. For retail PC, he forecasted Mists of Pandaria to have sold 640,000 units during the month, noting that the majority of sales were downloaded digitally, a channel that NPD does not track.

Blizzard Entertainment announced last week that Mists of Pandaria had sold 2.7 million units during its first week across all channels.

Additionally, Creutz does not believe declines will turn around in any significant way anytime soon. Though the fall software release slate and the launch of the Wii U will boost sales somewhat, he still predicts double-digit declines year-on-year software sales through the end of 2012. This bleak outlook is due to the "continued weakness" of the Wii and the forthcoming end to the Xbox 360 and PlayStation console cycle, he said.

Lastly, Creutz reiterated that new consoles from Microsoft and Sony are potentially in line for a launch during fall 2013.

The reason for this decline in my opinion is that the gaming market was becoming a bit bloated in the last few years. Many gamers just realized that buying new games every week just creates a huge backlog that they will never be able to finish and it's not worth it especially when paying full price for every game. I think the market will eventually stabilize, but some companies will shut down and less AAA games will be released.

Games I played the most this year: Team Fortress 2 (by a long long way), Diablo III, Terraria; none of which are state-of-the-art. In any case, there doesn't seem to be much room to grow in terms of technological advancement in PC gaming (which is all I do, and with a crap GPU), so I agree with many comments that its the lack of refreshing ideas and fun designs that's limiting the gaming economy.

Don't know, maybe its the massive amount of sequels and no original IP, or the immense quantity of worthless DLC and the fact consumer money is actually finite, or maybe its because consumer is trying to find a way to relax and let go the stress since the hobby they used to do that became a second job(and a very stressful one) due the constant dependency of internet for DRM, digital download, streaming and others.

I haven't really contributed much myself this year. The last game I bought, a couple of weeks ago, was Project Zero 2 for Wii. Prior to that I bought a game in May. Not a great way to keep the industry afloat but it is as the analyst pointed out; there just isn't much in the way of interesting software at this late stage in the PS3/360 cycle. Even the 3DS is a bit short on regular top quality titles, so I haven't bought anything new for it for months now. However there are plenty of games that I want for Wii U so I am sure that it will reignite my interest in some new games.

People are buying less console games because there is not really a "WOW" factor anymore. Nobody is impressed by the graphics anymore, too many franchises just pushing out the same game with a sequel digit tagged to it, and I'm sure there are other good theories as well. Anyone else have more theories to add?

I thought it has been too long since the latest Doomsday report from Eddie. But don't worry, EA will save us all. They will usher in our saving grace through the life saving miracle of Free 2 Play games, because they care. It will only be a micro-transaction here and there for you. No risk at all. Mwa Ha Ha...

They will save our consoles from the impending fires of hell that are destined to consume us all. Our mobile devices will be the ultimate gaming experience in place of AAA titles that nobody buys. They will slay the dragon of our gaming demise because EA wants to help us. No cat will be left stuck up a tree. No dog without food. For EA is our gaming savior. LMFAO

@SolidTy Dishonored and XCOM just came out, apparently those are going to be really good. Not to mention there are a few other new IPs, a couple of good sequels and some promising new games. Not to mention with new gens coming out soon I bet a lot of developers are turning to those.

@Sohereiam Nope, the industry isn't declining, just sales. And it's 100% because we are at the end of the current gen consoles life cycle. Once the next gen consoles show up (excluding the Nintendo stuff in this statement) we will see record sales month after month for several years following. Only to be met by another 'lowest point in the industry' near the end of that generation. It's just a predictable cycle.

The amount of gamers has skyrocketed, but the sales are stale. That's not really a decline in the industry.

@jasonlc3221 My theory is that many people have just moved onto other forms of gaming, lost interest in it, spend more time with the same game over an extended period rather than buy new games, poor advertising, erm... maybe there are too many games these days so people are spoilt for choice? Who knows though. But I do think the most likely reason is that the industry has become too expectant. After all, game sales are much higher now than they were 10 years ago.

@mlcarter815 I couldn't agree more. I have bought 5 new games this entire year. FIVE. That's the fewest number of new games I have bought in a year's span since I was in middle school and had no job 7+ years ago. Very meh year for games indeed.

@mlcarter815 Think about it, will you be able to take another COD, Halo, Gears, Uncharted etc., for another year (after the current string of pending releases that is)??I know I can't... Give me something new and big.Not saying that I don't want future versions of these titles, but until we get new systems, it will be more of the same.

@mlcarter815 In my opinion, it's because the current generation of consoles are beginning to show their age. Felt the same way right before the PS2 and XBOX dropped and also when the XBOX 360 and PS3 dropped.The limits of the hardware start to come front and center as devs look to build bigger and better titles. Of course my logic doesn't take PC into account.

@Superzone I remember watching the events at E3 this year and being very underwhelmed. The only game that really impressed me was Watchdogs. It's sad when the most exciting game in Microsoft's E3 show was a South Park game.

I can't even remember what games I've bought this year. I bought SWTOR and had some fun with it. Got my money's worth out of it seeing as I'm not looking for a game world to live in. I don't think I bought any new releases other than Crusader Kings II. I bought some older games that I haven't had a chance to play yet.

@mlcarter815@kavadias1981@jasonlc3221 I think that most people are waiting for the blockbuster titles that are coming out over the next few months and the Wii U (I know that I am). I was looking to buy Resident Evil 6, Code of Princess, Medal of Honor, Mugen Souls, and maybe even Lego: Lord of the Rings; but I have reconsidered... and will likely be saving my money for Wii U titles (already have Wii U pre-ordered). AC 3, NFS: MW (PC/Vita), Forza: horizon, Halo 4 (maybe), Paper Mario, etc... I really can't afford to buy games that only interest me a little. Also, I will be needing money for Q1 of 2013, because there will be great titles available then as well.

I am a supporter of new IP though (if they are good and intrerest me), so I pre-order Dishonored back in Sept. I'm looking forward to playing it later on today.

@mlcarter815 Yeah those were all highly-anticipated games. There's a couple this year but like I said, it's more of the same. I'm looking forward to AC3, Halo 4 and COD. I'd be pissed if the next iterations of all three of these games were on current gen consoles