Met Office told councils to expect a 'drier than normal' Winter

The Met Office made serious errors in its three month forecast provided to
councils and the Environment Agency and said in November that the country
could expect 'drier than usual' conditions this winter

The Somerset Levels are still submerged under water after more than two months of floodingPhoto: Getty Images

By Keith Perry

6:28AM GMT 21 Feb 2014

The Met Office is under attack over its weather forecasts after it emerged that it told councils in November to expect ‘drier than usual’ conditions this winter.

The Somerset Levels are still submerged under water after more than two months of flooding.

Last night it was confirmed that the UK had suffered the wettest winter since records began, the Daily Mail reported.

The three month forecast, which the Met office admitted was ‘experimental to some extent’ was given to councils, the Environment Agency and other contingency planners to tell them what they could expect from December to the end of this month.

The forecasters assured councils there ‘would be a significant reduction in precipitation compared to average’ for most of the country, adding that there was only a 15 per cent chance the winter would fall into the ‘wettest category’.

The forecast would have given the wrong advice to the many local authorities now facing some of the most severe flooding Britain has seen in decades.

A spokesman for the Met Office said: ‘Our short and medium-term forecasts are the ones relied on by emergency responders to help them manage the impacts of severe weather.

'The Met Office’s five-day forecasts and severe weather warnings have provided excellent guidance throughout this period of exceptionally stormy and wet weather.’

The Met Office stopped publishing its long-range forecasts for the public to see in 2010, after its disastrous prediction of a ‘barbeque summer’ in 2009 – which ended in washouts throughout July and August.

The three-month forecasts are now sent only to contingency planners, such as councils, government departments, and insurance companies.

The 90-day forecast was issued at the end of November, and makes clear planners should also consult the forecasts released 30 and 15 days ahead which are more accurate.

Using the Met Office’s super-computer, experts in November predicted there would be high-pressure weather systems across Britain ‘with a slight signal for below average precipitation’.

The Met Office said the UK had been drenched in 19.2in of rain since December, making it the wettest winter since records began in 1910.

It said it had been exceptionally wet in the South West, South East, central Southern England and across Wales.

MPs and environmental planners said the long-term forecast had been a ‘mistake which could have cost Britain dearly’ and questioned whether the forecasting methods were fit for purpose.

Tory MP Chris Heaton-Harris told the Daily Mail: ‘The Met Office is very good at predicting the weather it can see is coming; but beyond that, its track record is pitiful.

‘Many government agencies and some government policies are dependent on these Met Office predictions and so these mistakes potentially are costing us dearly.’