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Tuesday, November 21, 2017

Iran Solidifies Influence in Kirkuk

By Omer Kassim with Jennifer Cafarella and Zachary Goulet

Key Takeaway:Iran is consolidating its military control in Kirkuk, Iraq. Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al Abadi has appointed an Iranian-friendly commander to lead a new “Kirkuk Operations Command.” The new commander will likely provide a durable conduit for Iran’s proxies to retain military strength in Kirkuk. Abadi’s decision reflects a concession to Iran’s proxies and a recognition that he cannot constrain them.

Iran is consolidating military control in Kirkuk. Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al Abadi appointed an Iranian-friendly commander, Lieutenant General Ali Fadhil Imran, to lead the newly created “Kirkuk Operations Command” on October 28, 2017. Imran is the former head of the Iranian-influenced 5th Iraqi Army (IA) Division, based in Diyala. Photos in Iraqi and Jordanian media and a Facebook page linked with Imran show him closely coordinating with Iranian proxy Badr Organization leader Hadi al Ameri in 2015. The 5th IA Division is a component of the Dijla Operations Command (DOC), which is responsible for security in Iraq’s Diyala Province along the Iraq-Iran border. Iran’s influence over the DOC’s leadership is a template for how the security structure in Kirkuk will likely evolve. Iran’s proxies have disproportionate influence over the DOC. A video published by Vice News in February 2015 shows the former head of the DOC Abdul Amir al Zaydi taking direct orders from Ameri. Imran will likely provide a durable conduit for Iran’s proxies to dominate Kirkuk’s security structure similar to their role in Diyala.

Ameri and Imran appear together in a
photograph posted in March 2015. Source: Facebook page
linked to Imran.

Ameri and Imran appear together in a photograph posted in October 2017. Source: Facebook page linked to Imran.

Prime Minister Abadi’s previous attempt to constrain the Iranian proxy-dominated Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) in Kirkuk failed. Abadi initially demanded that that armed groups withdraw from Kirkuk on October 18, handing control of security to the Counterterrorism Services (CTS) and local police. The PMF did not comply. A double suicide vest attack, likely carried out by the Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS), targeted a location near the Kirkuk city headquarters of Saraya al Salam – an armed group affiliated with nationalist Shi’a cleric Muqtada al-Sadr – on November 5. Sadr subsequently ordered Saraya al Salam to withdraw, but the presence of his unit on November 5 demonstrates that he initially ignored Prime Minister Abadi’s withdrawal order. Iran’s proxy group Asa’ib Ahl al Haq (AAH) also appears to retain presence in the city. Unconfirmed reports from Iraqi Kurdish media indicated that the ISIS attack targeted AAH in addition to Saraya al Salam. The head of the Kirkuk Provincial Council Rebwar Taha also accused AAH of occupying his home in Kirkuk during a press conference on October 20. Iran’s proxies also continue to dominate the areas around Kirkuk Province. The Iranian proxy Badr Organization’s Turkmen unit, also known as the 16th PMF Brigade, retains a strong presence south of Kirkuk City and is now deployed in the northern Kirkuk countryside up to the outskirts of Altun Kupri district, about 50 kilometers south of Arbil City. Abadi’s decision to appoint Imran as the head of the Kirkuk operations command reflects a concession to Iran’s proxies and a recognition that he cannot constrain them.