In answer to the original question,
I think it all really depends on the context. If the subject line is "Glastonbury tickets on sale now" the user knows the product, doesn't need convincing they will happily click straight to the website. If the subject is "New festival, tickets on sale now" you'll likely need to convince them they want to click through first.

Now for my rant about The Fold...

The name "the fold" comes from newspapers that were folded in half on display, so you'd put the most captivating content in the top half of the page to grab the attention of passers by.

Web designers adopted this term for the visible part of a website that is seen before the user scrolls and we've also adopted this for email too. The idea that it's dead comes from the huge array of different sized devices that are available now, but screen sizes have always varied, plus factors such as which email client, open full screen or small window, is there a preview pain, which browser (for webmail), number of browser plug ins, etc. have all affected the size of the fold for as long as I've had an email account.

If the fold exists, it exists in the same way it always has, the size of it (in email) is unpredictable in the same way it alway has been.

People do scroll, yes, but... they always have. I've been scrolling through websites and emails for years. But you need to encourage this, people don't scroll just because they can, they scroll to find out more. Entice them in with something to encourage them to seek additional content, then once people start scrolling they are more likely to continue.

So if we say the fold doesn't exist for email, we should say it never did and maybe just call it 'near the top'.

Also does the fold exist on Tabloid papers? If a Broadsheet is folded in three, is the fold still in the same place or has it moved?

I can't remember where I read it, but the more Mobile-friendly your audience is, the more meaningless since people are used to scrolling for their info on their phone. You might still see Above the Fold as a viable term for desktops, but in all actuality you'll probably see a larger increase in conversions by cleaning up your email, using and effective call to action, and really giving great copy and design. There was a whole article I read on button placement and that if you place it on the left or centered, you're well above if you placed it on the right (the eye reads left to right and skims down the left of an email before heading to the right column).

If anybody else has experience with this though, please comment as well since it is an interested debate.

The "Fold" is a mythical creature these days. Many believe in it, but does it really exist?

What defines a "fold"? With the array of devices and screen sizes these days the fold of a screen can be anywhere and therefore planning your design strategy around it makes no sense. Also something my 2 year old daughter frequently reminds me about when she plays with my phone is that the newer generation scroll seamlessly and naturally.

As long as the content flows and the user experience makes sense, the fold doesn't matter :)

There are thousands of considerations and nuances in user-centered, task-centered and conversion-centered (persuasion) design. There is also a great deal of research on each. However, there is no fold. There is an initial view, and it will vary widely by hundreds of factors that include at least all of the following: email client + version, OS + version, screen size, screen density, screen orientation, subject line length, preview text length, images-on setting, local user settings of font size (universal access / accessibility preferences), zoom, network speed and latency, the number of http/https requests, the file size of the response, whether or not the mail is flagged as marketing or from a list, whether or not the sender is in the contact list and how that name displays, etc.

While all these factors may seem overwhelming and immeasurable, there is one consistent and persistent truth that you can rely on – human behavior.

People scroll

Data tells us that happens within the first 1.5 seconds, which is usually before content completely loads and renders.

I would encourage everyone to collect their own performance metrics with multivariate testing against an array of positions, copy, affordances, and persuasion tactics. Your data will inform you which is most effective for your audience. A quick method to inform which variations to test is to do online usability testing of a design prior to development and delivery to narrow the variants to those viable from this initial testing.

This is a great question and I don't think we all can agree on one solution is better than another. As some already have said there is a lot of variable to which extend the fold exist or not.

One thing we have tested is that CTR is usually a little bit higher when we link the hero image and makes it looks like something you can click. That being said, I agree that it might not always be the right solution every time. If more than one short paragraph is needed to facilitate a CT, I could easily argue that a CTA 'above the fold' would not result in a higher conversion rate.

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