Sandy’s criminal consequences

Just a few hours before superstorm Sandy made landfall on New York last Monday and residents scrambled to evacuate the city’s waterfront neighborhoods, a 31-year-old man was murdered in Bath Beach, Brooklyn, just a few blocks from the rising ocean.

The five-day period during the storm and its immediate aftermath saw 15 shooting victims in all and a total of 1,061 crimes committed, according to the New York Police Department.

Crime in New York didn’t stop for Sandy. But contrary to public perceptions that catastrophes lead to widespread looting and general lawlessness, New York City has actually experienced a decrease in criminal activity because of the superstorm.

The city underwent a double-digit percentage decline in most types of serious crime last week, according to the NYPD. Murder fell by 86 percent and rape by 44 percent. Larceny declined by 48 percent and robbery dipped by 30 percent. The only increase was for burglary — but even that was by a mere 3 percentage points.

News reports of looting in Coney Island, which hit this grocery store and other businesses, fueled misperceptions that Sandy brought a crime wave to New York City; in fact, incidents have declined. Photo: Metro Ministries

This decline is in keeping with what sociologists and disaster experts have discovered about previous natural disasters in the United States: crime goes down in the immediate aftermath as citizens focus their energies on survival and organizing their recovery.

“What happens is what scientists call the emergence of a therapeutic community,” explained Dr. Andrew Prelog, a research associate with Center for Disaster and Risk Analysis at Colorado State University. “There’s this general altruistic behavior going on and when that occurs, there’s much less chance people will victimize one another.”

Nonetheless, if previous statistical studies of natural disasters hold true, New York City can expect to see an increase in crime in the coming year. Sociologists explain these increases with what they call the “social disorganization effect” of natural disasters — when the immediate therapeutic community dissolves and the consequences of lost homes, jobs, money and the destruction of swaths of neighborhoods are felt.

Studies of a wide range of disasters across America show a pattern of increased crime following disasters. After the eruption of Mount Saint Helens in 1980, Othello, Washington saw a 27 percent increase in the number of assaults within seven months and a 10 percent increase in disorderly conduct. Hurricane Carla hit Galveston, Texas, in 1961 and led to a 30 percent increase in auto theft.

Research has found an even stronger correlation between natural disasters and increases in domestic violence, according to a 2009 paper for the International Journal of Mass Emergencies and Disasters. Hurricane Andrew led to such a large surge in domestic violence cases that additional judges had to be hired in Florida to handle the increase.

New York City’s high levels of economic inequality might further exacerbate the long-term spike in crime following superstorm Sandy. Where extreme levels of structural inequality prevail, sociologists have seen higher spikes in crime rates following disasters.

“New York is the most unequal place in the United States in terms of the gap between rich and poor,” said Prelog. “I would venture to say that based on my research, the coupling of the disaster with high inequality, you’ll see a jump in crime rates.”

Republish Our Content

The New York World is published under Creative Commons' BY-ND 3.0 license. Unless otherwise noted, you are welcome to reprint The New York World's reporting. Except by prior arrangement, the following guidelines apply:

Credit The New York World, preferably by appending “The New York World” to the bylines already on the stories. Bylines must remain in the stories.

Do not edit stories, except to reflect relative changes in time or location (eg. “Yesterday, following months of uncertainty, Governor Cuomo...” may be changed to begin “In January,” or “Early this year”)

You may edit stories to accommodate style variations or to expand acronyms (eg. “TWU Local 100” may be written “Transport Workers Union Local 100”)

Related Stories

Data Tools

More than 22,000 medical and religious exemptions were granted to students for the 2013-14 school year, up 27 percent from 2010-11, according to the state Health Department. Public and private enrollment over the same period remained largely flat.

Over the past several years, more than 120 law enforcement agencies across the state, from the NYPD to Tuckahoe, have obtained military-grade equipment through the Pentagon’s 1033 program, which transfers excess military equipment to state and local police across the country.

Our work has appeared in…

About TNYW

Sign up for our newsletter

Thanks to our funders

Funding for The New York World has been provided by the Barth Family Fund of the Dallas Foundation, Renee S. Edelman '80, the John S. and James L. Knight Foundation, the Eleanor & Howard Morgan Family Foundation, the Rockefeller Family Fund, Rick Smith '70, Amy Entelis '79, Margaret Berkheimer '43, Joelson Foundation, Joan K. Davidson (The J.M. Kaplan Fund), Christina R. Davis, Charina Endowment Fund, Evan A. Davis and William B. Wiener, Jr. Foundation, Dyson Foundation, The Indian Point Foundation.

Who we are

The New York World produces accountability journalism devoted to deepening public understanding of the ways city and state government shape life in New York City. Our news stories and data projects illuminate issues and engage New Yorkers with information about how their city works.

Unless otherwise noted, you can republish articles for free if you follow these rules.