pandyan wrote:going back to the topic on china vs pak. pak is separated by a porous border and familiar language. that means opportunity to blend-in and be the eyes, ears, nose, soul, rear etc. india would have had far more intel on what the pakis are upto.

This is debatable, IMO. We have always deluded ourselves about Paki intentions in every war in the past. I am happy to eat my printed words the day this sad streak is ended. But so far the record has shown that even when the intelligence services have shown themselves to be able to gather intel, the government has shown a penchant for self-delusion about Paki intentions. Aman-ki-asha anyone?

so, it is hard to believe that india misjudged on how this war would go. If the intention was to capture the top leadership and bring them to justice, then india should have used low key approach instead of pushing full steam ahead to grab territory. with the head still there, they made all kind of foolish decisions and bombed themselves and others. the order must have been reversed...first capture isi thugs and then capture what is needed.

Indeed. Part of the scenes in the scenario early on dealt with the Indian government's desire to be "seen" to be doing something (following the Mumbai strike), rather than actually doing something low key. Hence the strikes in Kashmir that snowballed out of control.

pandyan wrote:I also find the newclear counter attack by india amusing because it would have made more sense to grab the entire state than lay it to waste.

Why take over a pit of snakes? Better to burn it from afar, no? And what about later? Do you think the aman-ki-asha types will let justice be served to those that deserve it? Its not just about land. Wherever possible, land can be acquired. Like in Kashmir. Balochistan can be let free. But why the hell would you leave Paki punjab and the frontier provinces standing?

pandyan wrote:also, in the scenario, would other countries that equipped and funded pakis with bums be fair game for india's retaliation?

That's a good question, ain't it? Does India's second-strike extend to countries that haven't attacked it militarily?

^ No, in a scenario such as above India is safe from China (unless of course it spent most of its nukes on leveling tsp), perhaps a little skirmish here and there but China would be stupid to risk attacking India now when the nuclear can is completely opened. They stand little to gain and much to.lose. too risky to screw around, why when Pakistan has done much.more damage than it/China could have reasonably hoped for from any confrontation with India? India will be setback economically and geopolitically for some time. Plus it would be bad publicity to ungli India now. They should be sitting pretty watching the show with some popcorn, throwing around wonderful platitudes about peace and restraint and what not. This is a Godsend for China.

And, no point throwing bums at all and sundry (unless it is Noko), The wounds are deep enough without a massive retaliation from China

The last two posts from Vivek got my goats . I think he wrote the last two in haste . The end seems abrupt and sudden . It could have been more descriptive , more touching , describing in detail the horrifics of nuclear arming a jehadi state. I did miss a few agnis lobbed at the pakistani forefathers , the al sauds . China could also have lost tens of its grand cities and war fighting capabilities. If India is going down , it should have gone down in style. Harakiri on the way down, too, is sad.China should also feel the pain of building those nuke reactors in al bakistan. I feel sorry for AoA who would have to now raise raisins in billions .

Brings out the challenges of the NFU doctrine and deterrence. Contrast to the scenario played out in Fenix, in real life if the political will is weak, in practical terms, there might not be any deterrent despite being full and functional arsenal. The real deterrent is 'actual arsenal and infrastructure + the will to use it'. The first part belongs to scientists and forces but the second part belongs to the political leadership.

I also suppose there should be some mention on the front of Ministry of the External Affairs, as the Indian Sub-continent battling with nuclear war, there would be lots of interesting activities, postures, announcements, back-channel diplomacy, warnings, restrictions and what not. May be, if some of it could be included to project the scenario more interesting and spicy.

I remember Musharraf's interview on CNN/ Bloomberg many moons ago when he was in amrika. When the interviewer asked him why was pakistan so paranoid about India. Musharraf's answer ," India has deployed 500 prithvi missiles all along the pak border. We don't go by intentions , we go by capabilities." How true is that and what are all those prithvis doing ? Why do we need to spare any village with so much firepower ?

....Add to this the issue of the Indian government culture. Has there been a single Indian government in history that has even appeared mentally able to launch a preemptive first strike when conclusive evidence of the enemy primary strike might be missing?

In the scenario, the Indian government would have launched missiles right after the strike on Rahim Yar Khan. So that was anyway bound to happen. The Pakistani primary strike immediately after the strike on Rahim Yar Khan is pretty redundant on the issue of Indian retaliation, no?

-Vivek

Vivek ji, You are right in quoting GOI Culture, I May agree with you for a "pre emptive" strike. But it is not a pre-emptive strike. Pakistanis may have struck Lahore but that was to hit Indian Armed Forces. So Govt or if i quote PMO will/should be advised by Militray Commanders and Somebody like NSA Ajit Doval to treat this as first strike and Launch against Pakistan. This is not conventional strike GOI very well know what holding up could lead to

Stakes are too high for us to wait. Because what happens next is what you described . Eventually there will be very Little India Left to Defend and in that eventuality Pseudo Secular Forces inside the country will not miss the opportunity to declare separate states and break India. ...

It was the most surreal thing he had ever seen in his life. It was supposed to be pitch black with stars above. But instead there was this extraordinary orange glow everywhere on the horizon he looked. It appeared as though the entire country was on fire…

Haider stood by the side of the army truck as they observed the latest explosion in eastern Lahore. He saw the rising mushroom cloud as it climbed thousands of feet into the air. The dissipating shockwave from its explosion flew past the parked convoy of trucks like a sudden burst of wind and dust.

Haider winced away as the dust flew into his eyes. He rubbed them with his fingers, cursing profanely as he did so. Akram and the other officers held on to the ends of the paper maps and other equipment to prevent them from flying off the hood of the truck. A colossal rumbling passed under their feet as the sound caught up with them…

Another flash of light disappeared into a mushroom cloud from the direction of Muridke, where they had all been just a few hours ago. The ball of white light dissipated and was enveloped in smoke and dust as the stem of the mushroom formed under it. The Indians had destroyed what was left of the Pak army defenses on the Lahore front…

“There it goes,” Haider said flatly. He couldn’t feel anything. Not for the soldiers of the 6TH Armored who he had abandoned there to their fate, not for the civilians of Lahore or anyone else for that matter. His only concerns had been for his family, who he had just heard, had moved across the border into Afghanistan. His other major concern for was himself. And that still needed sorting out.

“Any news?” Haider asked Akram as he walked over to the truck. He sighed and then added: “From anyone?”

Akram shook his head. “Military comms are offline. Rawalpindi is offline. Command net is offline. It’s all offline, sir!” He pounded his fist on the hood, causing everyone around to flinch. He then turned to Haider:

“It’s all over, isn’t it?”

Haider looked at his young aide: “It’s not over until it’s over. The Indians have destroyed Pakistan, but we will rise back up again. But to do that, this country needs leaders who will help guide the nation back on its feet, decades from now. Which means men like yourself, Akram. You see all this,” he gestured to the numerous mushroom clouds on the eastern horizon, “all this is just the start of the jihad against the infidels. And you and your men will carry the torch.”

“But first,” Haider added as he put his hand on Akram’s shoulder, “we have to survive. We need to head west and meet our colleagues on the Afghanistan border. The mountains there will provide us the cover we need until all this settles down. You understand?”

Akram nodded and sighed. “Yes, sir. I understand. Do we start gathering straggling units if we meet them?” “No.” Haider said flatly. “Any collection of military units larger than a few vehicles will invite a nuclear attack from the Indians. We stick with our convoy of ambulances here and move alone. Once the dust settles, we will begin collating stragglers into a fighting force again.”

Haider got into the back of the truck marked as an ambulance. Akram waved to the others as they got their maps and equipment together and moved to their respective vehicles. They knew they had to put as many kilometers during the night as possible before daylight made it impossible for them to move under threat of Indian attack.

“What about General Hussein?” Akram asked as he took a seat opposite Haider in the back of the truck. “What about him?” Haider replied conversationally as he removed his helmet and ruffled his white hair. The vehicle rumbled forward, followed behind by the others. “Do you think he made it out alive?”

Haider exhaled as he considered that question. His last conversation with Hussein had given him the impression of fatality. Hussein hadn’t sounded like a man who saw himself escaping the city like a fugitive, like…

Like we are? A voice inside Haider’s head quirked.

“No major,” he said finally, shaking off his internal self-recriminations as though it were a nuisance. “I don’t think he did.” There was silence for several seconds between the two men. Akram broke the silence after a while: “He died for his country and his religion.”

Haider wanted to ask the young officer in front of him whether he truly believed what he had just said. But now was not the time. Haider kept his peace. If his countrymen chose to remember Hussein as that fearless leader who had taken them into battle despite all odds, then so be it. All Haider had in mind was to get to the safety of the Afghanistan border before the Indians found out that he was still alive and came after him. From there he had pre-arranged plans to smuggle him out to Tajikistan and from there to Saudi Arabia. He would leave the future of Pakistan, such as it was, in the hands of men like Akram, but his own war was over…

Sorry if it sounds stupid, but have you taken in to account he reliability of Cheeni Korean Nodongs and ? IMHO, reliability of imported deterrence should be factor along with American control over Paki military. The two posts about the nuclear exchange look very detached from rest of the scenario. Maybe it's just the discomfort of seeing India being hurt like that, but Pakis having such a good control over their nuclear command after a devastating war, it's actual effectiveness, numbers and non-interference from US seems a bit hard to digest.

jamwal wrote:Sorry if it sounds stupid, but have you taken in to account he reliability of Cheeni Korean Nodongs and ? IMHO, reliability of imported deterrence should be factor along with American control over Paki military.

I hear that a lot, so let me add some thoughts here:

1. The reliability factor the Ding-Dongs etc. was very much an issue back in the late 1990s for the Pakis. It was no joking matter either. The missiles had numerous problems for launching, maintenance, mobility and general accuracy. So this was a real factor back then.

2. But in the two decades since then, the Pakis have invested heavily in missiles because they see it as their only real offensive weapon. Missile relaibility has improved with user experience. The Pakis are not idiots. They have a lot of folks who are intelligent and have had access to the technology for 20 years.

3. They have had access to missile technology much more than the Noko (both through western world and through the Chinese). And Chinese missiles have become increasingly reliable over the past two decades as well. All of this has to trickle down to the Pakis as well.

4. The degree of importance that the Paki commanders apply to their missile forces in no joke. It is very much expected that their missile forces will remain in control and in play far longer than their other sister service branches.

5. The rate of induction of missiles and nuclear warheads in Pakistan is very high. They have added a LOT more missiles to their arsenal, not to mention nuclear warheads. Even if some of these fail, the idea that India will be spared as a result of it, is frankly, inaccurate.

Why is Khan is keeping quite while his munna doing all the jihadi nuke stuff? All prediction from arm chair babas in pakiland and also here is that Khan and his Gora munnas will interfere in any war between their Munna and us and the war will not last for more than a couple of weeks. Do you predict that will not happen? This war started with a Nuke attack. It has a great chance of ending up as a major nuke exchange. Yet all goras kept quite?

Indian missiles had massive range and were stationed well beyond the reach of Pakistani missiles. And the Pakistanis had no defenses against such an attack. The Indians could strike virtually any target they wished. And right now their list included every location greater in size than a village.

As Indian Agni missiles left the ground for their targets, all Indian aircraft and helicopters vacated the skies over Pakistan. The Indian forces near potential targets were already evacuating under emergency conditions.

The Indian warheads flew a clear and unopposed trajectory to their targets. Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Karachi, Peshawar, Skardu, Multan and half a dozen other cities disappeared under nuclear detonations within the first strike. What was left of eastern Lahore was also struck again. The barrage of missiles struck all major military airbases and ports. By the time the third barrage hit tertiary targets, much of Pakistan was already dotted with dusty mushroom clouds. The entire country had been devastated in under an hour…

By that time, the Indian military was coordinating with the StratForCom commanders for the liberal use of tactical battlefield nuclear weapons. The price for their usage had been paid in the blood of a hundred million civilians on both sides. But General Potgam’s orders to his commanders were clear: they were to lay waste any clustering of military targets until none remained.

There was to be no phoenix rising out of these ashes of Pakistan.

How about mentioning INS Arihant as one of the platforms in action in the above scenario?

Is there some underwater action sequence planned in the book? Maybe I missed it. PN's Augosta SSKs against IN's Scorpene SSKs, Akula SSN and P-28 ASWs.

Amit Here with first post on BRF, My user id was given by admin. and I'm from software(IT) field.

Now on topic,

This thread by Vivek is one of the biggest reason, I finally joined the BrF, otherwise I have enjoyed and learned a lot from this forum since last 2 years.

Last a few posts looks like written in rush. Then also as per my knowledge its easier to intercept the BMs in their boosting phase. Now since all the launch site in Pak should be quite near to Indian border, India should be having their Anti BMs deployed near border which can arrest most the Paki BMs before mid course. I guess even current PAD/AD1 missiles can do the trick if modified and if they have not been tested for this as of now. I'm saying this because, as per the scenario in the last book and what happened in the conflict with China, we(New Indian Govt) should have been more serious about developing such capability and taking care of such threats atleast on Pakistani front.

Another curiosity would be where tank commander is addressing the Driver as "Driver" and not by his name. Usually people inside the tank should be calling each other by their name and not Driver/Gunner etc? Or is the norm?

Edit: Also I would like for a more detailed post on India's counter attack. India can fire may be 30-40 BMs in response. But In real I would like atleast 200 fighter plane bombing non stop, targeting every Institution, Bridge, Industry, rail network, Dams heck any building more then 5 story(which I suppose should be in thousand only.

^Wars didn't stop Germany or Japan on their path to progress and from what I can see, things are not even a fraction as bad for us in this scenario. Think of it as a way to get rid of the deadwood (particularly in Delhi).

^Wars didn't stop Germany or Japan on their path to progress and from what I can see, things are not even a fraction as bad for us in this scenario. Think of it as a way to get rid of the deadwood (particularly in Delhi).

I am sorry but that is a highly misguided statement. Germany and Japan were rebuilt after WWII with Trillions of dollars in American/Western spend. This spending was also a result of compulsions grown out of the Cold War. Eastern Europe, South East Asia did not get that benefit.

India will NOT be a beneficiary. There is simply would be no premium in Helping a nuclear wasteland with poor (over) population.

There is no deadwood here. All will be dead. The survivors will be the most disfranchised of society (rural masses). They will continue to suffer with no economy and no effective government. The Big Cities will be with the"intelligensia" will be over. Post nuclear India would see a poor starving population overwhelmed with disease, etc etc. To believe anything else is fantasy.

^I am sorry if I gave the wrong impression. While it is true that Germany and Japan got funds from USA for reconstruction, do bear in mind that we are a nation of far greater size, numbers and resources. Furthermore, the scenario mentioned only involves a few warheads escaping the missile shield and causing "comparatively" limited damage rather than the whole MAD scenario coming to fruition. All said, I would hope people have a little more faith in the resilience of our civilization. We are not some Pygmy of human history who can be swatted away by one disaster. We have survived worse and will will survive this as well.

Arun Menon wrote:^Hmm, didn't think it was as bad as that. Well, hope springs eternal and I have my beliefs and with that the confidence that if we can survive the malsi hordes, a few nukes aren't that bad.

Even I don't think it will be this bad in this scenario, even we lose half of bangalore and delhi and many other cities but still we have whole lot of cities and regions in our country capable of getting us out in this situation.

Arun Menon wrote:^Wars didn't stop Germany or Japan on their path to progress and from what I can see, things are not even a fraction as bad for us in this scenario. Think of it as a way to get rid of the deadwood (particularly in Delhi).

Hi Vivek, Some great writing there. However, just one clarification sought. In chimera, though we were fighting the Chinese where considering there vast conventional superiority over us and also considering that Chinese tend to exibhit far more rational and logical behavior then the pak is, We had a counter force mechanism in place that helped us to destroy their missiles just before launch. Than why will we not set up such mechanism against the porkies knowing very well their threshold is very low and even after they even nuked their own city.

Rahul M wrote:I would suggest the solution is counter force strikes from day one.needs a dedicated task force, staff and a full fledged intel gathering program to support it.

well, once one flies all fly. so like you said, we have to track all their assets and hit them from day one. i wonder whether we even have the planning to do that.the AF and SF really have to be built up.

one question that is doing the rounds in moi head is, what is the radius of a desi BMD system's protective umbrella ? around 50 km ?

well thats kinda classified Talking on this will probably see invincieble pigeon chase afetr us with a double barrelled shotgun:p

Apologies for the delay, folks. Been travelling last few days and had only intermittent internet connections.

I notice a lot of discussion has taken place here already, and I would like to contribute, but since the story is falling behind, allow me to post some more pages before I respond to some of the queries.

Kulkarni regained consciousness to find himself staring at the pitch black interiors of his tank turret. As his mind cleared and the senses recovered, he heard the howl of the wind outside.

But how can that be…he wondered. The turret was sealed. Wasn’t it?

He looked to the front to see the gunner and driver positions covered in dust and soot. A lifeless body lay on the main-gun breech in an unnatural angle. He moved his eyes and saw that his own turret hatch was sealed solid. But the other hatch seems to be letting some moonlight in. He realized his eyes were now adjusting to the darkness. The rays of moonlight from the open turret was lighting up the airborne dust particles inside the turret. Other than that, he couldn’t see any motion.

He tried to move his arms and legs and found them responsive, despite the aches all over his body. He had been laying there in the corner of the turret ever since he had been flung there by the shockwaves of the nuclear explosion. He recalled that he had managed to get inside the tank just as it been hit. He had seen his crew doing the same, hadn’t he?

Had they not made it all the way in?

That would explain the moonlight he saw from the other hatch, he realized. As his mind began playing the implications of what was around him, a sense of panic began to overcome him. His heartrate increased to a point that it was the dominant noise he heard. He had to get out. He had to get out of here before it was too late!

He grabbed on to the rails next to his seat to get himself up. It was a painful experience even to get himself into a seated position. After a minute of struggling, he finally made it into his seat. He finally looked around as he was used to, from his commander’s seat. And the view wasn’t pretty.

The turret was entirely destroyed from the inside. His ABAMS screen was cracked in multiple places and was shut off. There was no electrical power that he could see, but there were the occasional sparks. And the dust covered everything like a blanket.

He looked up and tried to open the hatch cover above him. But the thing would not move. Not even a little. It felt as though the hatch had been slammed shut with so much force that it was stuck. He would have to leave through the other hatch if he wanted to get out of here.

He managed to move himself by sliding down into the space where the gunner would be. He saw the tank still armed with ready-to-use sabot rounds in the storage. He sighed and then looked further. He saw the dead body laying by his side over the breech and moved it over so that he could see who it was. He dreaded what he might see, even though he knew exactly who it was.

“Ahhh!” He shrieked as he rolled over the body of his gunner. The latter’s chest had caved in from the pressure wave. Kulkarni’s cries in agony filled the turret for several minutes. He pounded helplessly on the side of the turret. The metallic clangs echoed through the turret as well. But when they died away, it was the same howl of the winds…

I have to get out of here…I have to get out! Kulkarni pulled himself up and forced his tears to stop by sheer willpower. He was not going to die out here. Not like this. Not now. He put the body of his gunner down on the floor of the turret and clambered past the gun and into the open hatch. He put his arms around the rim of the hatch and pulled himself up until he was seated with his body outside the turret and his legs hanging in.

The sight that accompanied his seat felt as though it were after a volcanic eruption. Dust swirled over the entire town at very high velocities. There were fires in a few places, but everything had either been burnt to cinders or the flames had been extinguished by the dusty winds. There was an ungodly brown glow to the entire night. Looking up, there were no stars and the moon appeared slightly brown.

Kulkarni took a deep breath and looked closer at his tank. The road they had been on was still there, although it was now covered with concrete debris from all the destroyed houses. Behind his own vehicle, he saw one of the three damaged Arjun tanks that he had ferried here prior to the explosion. It’s turret was swiveled at fifty degrees from the chassis and the main gun was pointed to the ground. The turret and driver hatches were open and covered in dust. There was no sign of life there.

Kulkarni noticed that the other two tanks behind this one were missing. All four tanks had been parked in a column before the explosion. So where were they now? Had they survived and left? Or had they been stolen by the enemy? Certainly they couldn’t have been pulled away by the shockwave. If the shockwave hadn’t pulled away the first two tanks, it couldn’t have done the last two. Where did they go?

He got up on top of the turret and looked around. He saw the unmistakable churning of mud where the other two tanks had been: tank tracks. The other two tanks had survived…

That gave Kulkarni some hope. But it still left him with the question of what to do. Where should he go? He was out here, seventy kilometers inside enemy territory and now everything was gone. All comms. All friendlies. His crew was gone too. And his tank was destroyed…

Perhaps if he had a functional radio, he could try and get word out to nearby friendly units. His mind raced through the possibilities: had Sudarshan survived? What about the rest of his tanks? Had India been nuked?

He looked at the second tank and saw that its turret looked badly damaged but the tank chassis otherwise looked operational. Maybe if he could get it rolling, he could drive his way out of here and to the Indian border.

It was a plan as good as any other his mind could come up. And he had nothing more to lose. He forced himself up and then checked his uniform’s thigh pockets. His folded paper map was still there. That further increased his hopes. A functional tank chassis and a map and he had all the essentials to make his way towards friendly lines. He also needed some protection. He jumped back into his turret hatch and looked around for their emergency equipment. He found his duffel bag stowed near his seat. He pulled it out and opened the zipper. Inside was his carbine version of the INSAS rifle, some extra magazines for the rifle, packaged food, some flares and smoke grenades and some personal belongings. Each crew member in the tank had carried such a bag for just this kind of contingency. He also removed the demolition charges pack and checked it for usability. He had no intention of handing over this tank to the enemy.

He checked the contents of the bag, removed the rifle and slapped an ammo magazine into it but kept the safety on. He zipped up the rest of the bag and pushed it over the rim of the turret to the outside and stowed the rifle around his neck. He gave a final look to the inside of the tank and had to fight back his tears. But he shook it off and then pushed himself out of the turret. He then set the demolition charge and tossed it back inside the turret before jumping off and running to the other tank behind his. He clambered aboard the driver’s hatch and got in.

It had been a long time since he had had to drive a tank. But he was trained in it and remembered where everything was. It did take him a few seconds to orient himself, but it came back to him much faster than he expected. The main issue was whether the tank’s engines still worked. He held his breath in anticipation and engaged the diesel engines.

The tank rumbled to life. And Kulkarni allowed himself to breathe again.

“Okay! Okay!” He talked to himself. “Let’s see if we can move!”

He reminded himself that the turret behind him was pointed away from the chassis and that the gun was pointed down. He would have to be mindful of the navigation issues pertaining to that when he had to turn in tight corners. But the first thing to do was back away before the demolition charges in his own tank destroyed what was left of his own former Arjun. He moved his new vehicle backwards and the tracks engaged as they threw up dust in all directions. The tank began to back up along the road, increasing the separation between the two vehicles.

It was when he was about thirty meters away that he saw the flash of flames and sparks coming out of the turret of his earlier tank. Moments later the top of the turret blew up into shreds and debris flew off in all directions. The flames lit up the debris filled streets with flickering shades of yellow and orange.

Kulkarni heard the metallic debris hitting his vehicle on the outside. But he ignored them as he pulled out his paper map and determined which path to take. He had no intention of driving through the city or near the airport. He would skirt around the perimeter of the city and then make his way back towards the general direction of Islamgarh road. Once there, he would be on the main Indian logistics route. And he hoped he would meet some friendly faces there.

He tucked the map next to his seat and maneuvered the tank around. The barrel of the gun hit one of the destroyed engineering trucks laying nearby and pushed it out of the way as well.

Once aligned with the road, he drove on, causing the tank to climb over the debris on its way out of Rahim Yar Khan.