Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the six-month season, which begins June 1, NOAA is predicting the following ranges this year:

12 to 18 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which:

6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including:

3 to 6 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher)

Each of these ranges has a 70 percent likelihood, and indicate that activity will exceed the seasonal average of 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.

“The United States was fortunate last year. Winds steered most of the season’s tropical storms and all hurricanes away from our coastlines,” said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. “However we can’t count on luck to get us through this season. We need to be prepared, especially with this above-normal outlook.”

Climate factors considered for this outlook are:

The continuing high activity era. Since 1995, the tropical multi-decadal signal has brought ocean and atmospheric conditions conducive for development in sync, leading to more active Atlantic hurricane seasons.

Warm Atlantic Ocean water. Sea surface temperatures where storms often develop and move across the Atlantic are up to two degrees Fahrenheit warmer-than-average.

La Niña, which continues to weaken in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, is expected to dissipate later this month or in June, but its impacts such as reduced wind shear are expected to continue into the hurricane season.

“In addition to multiple climate factors, seasonal climate models also indicate an above-normal season is likely, and even suggest we could see activity comparable to some of the active seasons since 1995,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

NOAA’s seasonal hurricane outlook does not predict where and when any of these storms may hit. Landfall is dictated by weather patterns in place at the time the storm approaches. For each storm, NOAA’s National Hurricane Center forecasts how these weather patterns affect the storm track, intensity and landfall potential.

“The tornadoes that devastated the South and the large amount of flooding we’ve seen this spring should serve as a reminder that disasters can happen anytime and anywhere. As we move into this hurricane season it’s important to remember that FEMA is just part of an emergency management team that includes the entire federal family, state, local and tribal governments, the private sector and most importantly the public,” said FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate.

“Now is the time, if you haven’t already, to get your plan together for what you and your family would do if disaster strikes. Visit ready.gov to learn more. And if you’re a small business owner, visit www.ready.gov/business to ensure that your business is prepared for a disaster,” added Fugate.

Hurricane impacts are not limited to the coastline; strong winds and flooding rainfall often pose a threat across inland areas along with the risk for tornadoes.

Next week, May 22-28, is national Hurricane Preparedness Week. To help prepare residents of hurricane-prone areas, NOAA is unveiling a new set of video and audio public service announcements featuring NOAA hurricane experts and the FEMA administrator that are available in both English and Spanish. These are available at http://www.hurricanes.gov/prepare.

The National Weather Service is the primary source of weather data, forecasts and warnings for the United States and its territories. It operates the most advanced weather and flood warning and forecast system in the world, helping to protect lives and property and enhance the national economy. Visit us online at weather.gov and on Facebook.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources.

When was the last time that the prediction was for below normal TC activity? I’ve lived in FL since ’98. I think that there was 1 year that was predicted to be near normal. All others have been predicted to be above normal. Only here and Lake Wobegon can everyone be above average.

It all depends on the jet stream. If the stream is zonal and up north, they may be vindicated. However, if it’s loopy and chaotic, or, long wave semi stable with a big blocker out West, then the stream will keep the tropical action way to the south and weak.

If the stream does not “cooperate” though, you can count on count padding (pun intended) via nor’easters, occluded fronts and other mid latitude systems recast as “tropical.”

Yeah it looks like Mann’ s. It looks like everyone’s, because as I keep saying the likely number is in such a small range that every guess has to be close to every other guess. Anthony, I guess you are between 3ft and 8 ft tall. What do I get for that guess. But like NOAA if you tell me you are taller or shorter I want another guess, this is what they get to do with their mid-season corrections.

■The continuing high activity era. Since 1995, the tropical multi-decadal signal has brought ocean and atmospheric conditions conducive for development in sync, leading to more active Atlantic hurricane seasons.

Thought it was shown there was no change in the long term trend in hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin?and if anything is was dropping slighty!!
Another one for the climate fail files….

How can you go wrong? If there are fewer hurricanes than predicted, we are lucky. If the estimate is right, the warmists are gods. If the estimates are low, things are getting worse faster than “we” predicted.

Couldn’t agree more. The local forecasters in the Seattle area always use “normal” when referring to rainfall, temp, etc, when they really mean average or mean over a certain time span, but they never tell you what the time span is.

“Average” is an ill defined mathematical term. Commenters here are thinking of the “mean” – a defined thing.

“Normal” is used (or initially was selected) to express the notion of humankind’s weather background, that is, what one grows up experiencing. Most folks don’t pay much attention to weather during the time from birth to age 5 or 6, then as one ages memories of the early years get dim and are replaced with more recent memories. When wanting a standard to compare to this month’s or year’s weather, one wants to have that comparison actually be something the person can relate to. A 200 year mean would not do this – you weren’t here then. So, years ago a 30-year period ending with a zero was chosen to provide this numeric crutch for inaccurate memories.

So, “normal” is the solution to an issue. It was selected in 1935 , I believe during a meeting of world-weather types in Poland. Almost always the time span is the most recent 30 years ending in 0 (zero). This was established before the computer era.

For Atlantic hurricanes, there are two “normals.” There are many more tropical storms during the warm AMO phase than the cool phase. There are nice charts available, the Klotzbach/Gray forecast will likely include them. I’ll create a post with them when the forecast is out.

DonK31 says:
May 19, 2011 at 10:56 am

When was the last time that the prediction was for below normal TC activity? I’ve lived in FL since ’98. I think that there was 1 year that was predicted to be near normal. All others have been predicted to be above normal.

The warm AMO started in 1995. About the only time a sub-longterm average forecast is made is during an El Niño. We have a few more years before the cool AMO gets reestablished. That may also reduce warm water getting into the Arctic Ocean. Will be interesting.

■The continuing high activity era. Since 1995, the tropical multi-decadal signal has brought ocean and atmospheric conditions conducive for development in sync, leading to more active Atlantic hurricane seasons.

Thought it was shown there was no change in the long term trend in hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin?and if anything is was dropping slighty!!
Another one for the climate fail files….

Longterm data for North Atlantic hurricanes is generally 50 years or so. (It should be a full AMO cycle, about 60 years.) One of the biggest differences between the current warm AMO and the last one is the dearth of landfalling hurricanes in New England. The last big storm was Hurricane Bob, and that was mid August 1991, during the cool AMO.

During the last warm AMO, we had several, especially Carol and Edna in 1954 and Donna in 1960. Wikipedia notes “Sixth hurricane hit in southern New England in thirty years, fifth major storm in 22 years.”

The cool AMO set in and the next decent storm was Gloria in 1985 “First hurricane of significant strength to move inland in southern New England since 1960.”

I expect that the floods in the Mississippi basin are caused by the snow melt from record winter snows. I feel very sorry for all those affected but this is a natural event. The tornadoes caused by the warm air mass from the Gulf converging on the very cold air mass sitting over the central states. Again a natural event causing much misery.

Americans have it rough sometimes but they do live in an otherwise beautiful country.

Tip: follow the smart money, look at how the natural gas and crude oil futures react to those predictions (as major hurricanes usually result in production shutdowns in the Gulf of Mexico and create a supply/demand imbalance). Institutional traders used to be influenced by the seasonal predictions; now nobody in the business believes them anymore and it’s even become a contrarian indicator.