Hypothetical question: What "formula" could be used for U.S. Olympic team selection?

Here's my attempt at starting a thread on this topic based on the following posts from the McLaughlin/Brubaker Split thread:

Originally Posted by PolymerBob

Technically, that is what happened at these Olympics. The problem is that the [U.S.] team in all 4 disciplines exactly matched National results, so we don’t know if anything else was considered.

I think that a more inclusive system could work, but only if was an exact formula that took into account scores and placements from ISU events. It should not be left up to the USFSA to interpret results as they see fit.

Originally Posted by Tonichelle

um, why shouldn't it be up to the team to choose who's on the team? that's how it's done. would you rather the ISU pick who goes and who stays?

Originally Posted by PolymerBob

A couple of things. First, I did not write "must be", nor "should be"; I wrote "could work". There is a subtile difference. Secondly, the ISU cannot pick our international teams, but their result can be used. If ( and only if ) ISU results are used, USFSA officials should state ahead of time what formula is used. If they want to add the base 10 logarithm of the Grand Prix Final score to the hyperbolic tangent of the placement; then add that to the Nationals score, that's fine. But the formula should be stated ahead of time. That way there's no argument.

And if they want to keep things the way they are, then that's fine too.

Re: Hypothetical question: What "formula" could be used for U.S. Olympic team selecti

Originally Posted by PolymerBob If they want to add the base 10 logarithm of the Grand Prix Final score to the hyperbolic tangent of the placement; then add that to the Nationals score, that's fine. But the formula should be stated ahead of time. That way there's no argument.

WHAT?????

Hmmm...I would love to be involved in this discussion. I hear formula, I think math, I go running!!

But I think no matter what the formula is...there will always be someone that is not happy.

Re: Hypothetical question: What "formula" could be used for U.S. Olympic team selecti

Sounds fair, let me take a stab. You would want to include the important points of the ISU results, which are the scores and placements. But how do you include both? Let's start with the events. We can't go back too far, so let's say previous seasons 4CC, Olympics ( if any ), Junior Worlds, Worlds, and this season's Grand Prix Final. To each event, apply a weight factor ( F ). So let's say:

Now for each event, take a skater's score, divide by placement, then multiply the result by that event's factor. And this is the allowance added to the national score for the purpose of picking World / Olympic teams.

So Jeremy Abbott was 5th at Worlds with a score of 232.10. The factor for Worlds is 0.050. So Jeremy's allowance is 0.050 x 232.10 / 5 = 2.32 points.

Jeremy was 9th at the Olympics with a score of 218.96. The factor for the Olympics is 0.040. So Jeremy's allowance would be 0.040 x 218.96 / 9 = 0.97 points.

Evan won the Olympics with a score of 257.67, so his allowance would be 0.040 x 257.67 / 1 = 10.31 points.

These allowance points would then be added to a skater's or team's National score for the purpose of picking World / Olympic teams. They do not count as far as official records go, just in picking teams.

Re: Hypothetical question: What "formula" could be used for U.S. Olympic team selecti

I know it's not complicated enough, but I wish we could just use common sense in picking our Olympic team. Who are our top skaters on the international scene? Which skaters score the best and are the most well received by the judges worldwide? Did those skaters look to be in good form at Nationals? Send them to the Olympics. What if one of the favorites messes up badly at Nationals? What if Lysacek bombed Nationals (which he clearly stated he wasn't going to peak for)? Well, he had just won the Grand Prix Final, had done well in his Grand Prix events, and obviously had strong potential to win an Olympic medal. Send him to the Olympics rather than someone who may have beaten him at Nationals, but doesn't have the same scoring potential and maybe was just a little lucky that day.

That's how I would do it. Common sense. Now, if there is a mathematical formula that can be formed that resembles common sense, then I'm all for it.

Re: Hypothetical question: What "formula" could be used for U.S. Olympic team selecti

PB= all fine and dandy, but how does one take into account score difference between events? I suppose one can play around with the weights but it sounds like what you're proposing is a lot more complicated than it should be. It should be simple enough to explain to a layperson, yet fair enough to give everyone an equal chance. I think the current system (Nationals for qualifying) is fine. Sure, it puts extra weight on Nationals, and may be unforgiving if a skater has a stellar season and then a bad performance at Nationals, but isn't that the way it is in other sports? In a way, it's also a test of how well you can handle pressure. If you can't handle it at Nats, there's NO WAY you'll be able to withstand the Oly pressure.

If you want to take a skater's entire season into account, perhaps a simple average of numbers works out? Then again, one runs into the problem I mentioned above. No method is perfect.

Re: Hypothetical question: What "formula" could be used for U.S. Olympic team selecti

Originally Posted by gold12345

I know it's not complicated enough, but I wish we could just use common sense in picking our Olympic team. Who are our top skaters on the international scene? Which skaters score the best and are the most well received by the judges worldwide? Did those skaters look to be in good form at Nationals? Send them to the Olympics. What if one of the favorites messes up badly at Nationals? What if Lysacek bombed Nationals (which he clearly stated he wasn't going to peak for)? Well, he had just won the Grand Prix Final, had done well in his Grand Prix events, and obviously had strong potential to win an Olympic medal. Send him to the Olympics rather than someone who may have beaten him at Nationals, but doesn't have the same scoring potential and maybe was just a little lucky that day.

That's how I would do it. Common sense. Now, if there is a mathematical formula that can be formed that resembles common sense, then I'm all for it.

I'm in agreement with this. I mean, say Ryan Bradley at nationals put up a clean SP on top of the great FS he delivered. If that had happened, I could maybe see sending him instead of Weir (who had also not had awesome results recently) but certainly not in place of Lysacek, who had done well all season.

The same could be said of sending Czisny over Flatt just because say Czisny did well at nationals and got scores she'd never come close to in international competition. In terms of the ladies, I think it was a good choice to send Mirai. Rachael I knew was pretty much a lock, and the other spot basically was going to Sasha, Ashley or Mirai. Alissa is kind of in the Ryan Bradley category in that she doesn't have the international results going for her and has never really put up a great score internationally. So Mirai had issues last season, but she's at least been pretty consistent in terms of not falling, so picking between her and Ashley and a questionable Sasha wasn't really a huge deal.

The point I'm trying to make is that for each discipline, there should have been one pair/skater who was essentially locked for a spot on the Olympic team. For men, that would be Lysacek, for ladies, Flatt, for dance, Davis/White, and for pairs, McLaughlin/Brubaker. The remaining 1 or 2 spots for each discipline could then be determined by who did best at nationals, but I do think at least one spot should be reserved for the skaters/pairs who have consistently had the best recent international results.

Re: Hypothetical question: What "formula" could be used for U.S. Olympic team selecti

Originally Posted by silverlake22

The same could be said of sending Czisny over Flatt just because say Czisny did well at nationals and got scores she'd never come close to in international competition. In terms of the ladies, I think it was a good choice to send Mirai. Rachael I knew was pretty much a lock, and the other spot basically was going to Sasha, Ashley or Mirai. Alissa is kind of in the Ryan Bradley category in that she doesn't have the international results going for her and has never really put up a great score internationally. So Mirai had issues last season, but she's at least been pretty consistent in terms of not falling, so picking between her and Ashley and a questionable Sasha wasn't really a huge deal.

Flatt was not a lock. If she performed like she did last year, or at Cup of China she would be staying home while Nagasu and Wagner went to Vancouver. But I agree that she was the most likely to get a spot. Nagasu was the wild card...I'm really not surprised that she got the 2nd spot.