Michael Keaton? Hmmm. I have the feeling that he'll never win. He can be part of a Best Picture winner but not be singled out for it. The "F yeah" that was easily lip read as the camera panned on him as he went onto the stage as 'Spotlight' won is churlish enough reason for AMPAS to easily forget about him.

The only thing that can propel Michael Keaton to win is an effective hype machine.

Adam Driver? In a Martin Scorsese film that isn't about gangsters? Never say never. There'll obviously be a myriad of contenders between now and Toronto/Telluride though.

Ladbrokes go 8/1 for 'Birth of a Nation' (nobody dares say a negative word about it since it wowed folks at Sundance) and a laughable 33/1 about 'The Jungle Book' (some technical nominations but it won't win any).

I would be stunned if 'Birth of a Nation' went 'wire-to-wire' and actually won Best Picture but stranger things have happened.

If they feel "Oooh...rewarding '12 Years a Slave' wasn't enough and non-white performers might have to win one of the acting awards not just be nominated" then watch out for the Denzel Washington directed 'Fences' which will apparently be released towards the end of the year.

Viola Davis could finally get an Oscar (and for Best Actress not just Supporting Actress!) and she has tremendous goodwill for 'How to Get Away with Murder' even though I don't rate that TV show at all (she won an Emmy! Who cares what I think!?)..

'Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk', 'Loving', 'Birth of a Nation', 'Silence' and 'Manchester by The Sea' seem plausible for five spots in the Best Picture line-up. Fairly strong word of mouth for 'BLLHW' as well.

I can see the appeal of Neeson. I like what he said about Driver, the fact that heâ€™s a former Marine whose really dedicated to the role and lost a tonne of weight. Thatâ€™s the sort of thing that captures the Academyâ€™s interest. I originally did fancy Neeson but I think Driver has positioned himself at the right time.

The trailer for Billy Lynnâ€™s Long Half Time Walk does appeal. Ang Lee is a great director but he reminds me a bit of Danny Boyle where it seems as if every second film is really good and does really well while every other film doesnâ€™t. Thatâ€™s no way meant as an insult to either!

I noticed that The Founder has had its release date brought forward to August. Michael Keaton will need to give a really strong performance if heâ€™s to be considered a contender come nomination time but I still wouldnâ€™t rule him out in the Best Actor category.
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It seems to be that Viola may gain some 'revenge' on Meryl if the support for Ms. Davis can match the hype. She certainly gets a lot of goodwill if she can win an Emmy for schlock like 'How to Get Away with Murder'.

GoldDerby also have Viola as the favourite ahead of Ruth, Emma, Meryl and then Annette in that order.

The big man may finally get his due if 'Silence' doesn't get um, silenced by AMPAS/the critics. I can't see Steve Martin or Hugh Grant winning but folks over at GoldDerby can as they have Steve as their favourite ahead of Mahershala (this year's potentially 'out of nowhere' non-white nominee) and Hugh.

GD have Armie Hammer ('The Birth of a Nation') and Lucas Hedges ('Manchester by the Sea') ahead of Liam Neeson and Aaron Eckhart.

GoldDerby also have Michelle as their favourite right now ahead of Kristen and then Naomie. They have Aja Naomi King ('The Birth of a Nation') and the other Fanning sister, Dakota ('American Pastoral') as more likely than Greta or Elle to round out the final five.

'La La Land' currently wowing them in Telluride right now. The contest is far from over but an original cinematic musical that's good is hard to come by these days...it may be absolute catnip for AMPAS.

What price are you offering, Ladbrokes? 4/1!? It'll be snapped up quicker than a paparazzo stalking ingenues on a red carpet for a front page photo.

EDIT: I honestly didn't look at Ladbrokes before I posted but yep, it's 4/1.