Catalonia has voted: now what?

Rajoy's iron-fisted approach to the Catalan question has only made the independence movement stronger. Now he must negotiate or risk losing Catalonia for good.

Demotix/Jose_Hinojosa. All rights reserved.

Catalan nationalists finally got what they wanted. 2.3 million people voted on Sunday,
November 9 for or against independence in an unofficial poll which had been
declared illegal by Madrid. 80% voted for independence for the autonomous
region, 10% for more autonomy within Spain and 4.5% for the status quo. These
are the bare results which have enabled the pro-independence movement to claim
victory.

Catalan
nationalists were able to organise voting operations in the four provinces
without incident and with outstanding popularity - as many people voted in the
referendum as had participated in the last two demonstrations for the September
11 Diada (National Day).

On the
other hand, the Popular Party's (PP, right) central government of Prime
Minister Mariano Rajoy claimed that the “N9” was a “vain travesty”, a violation
of the Constitution and a political failure, as less Catalans voted than in the
2012 regional elections (3.6 million).

As always in statistics, everyone has
been able to twist results for their own ends. But the political results are
there: 90% of voters against the status quo (instead of two thirds in 2012) and
a massive, peaceful manifestation - devoid of violence, Basque style - of a
vast majority of Catalans for change. Whatever Mr. Rajoy – or his PSOE
(Socialist) opposition, equally hostile to granting more autonomy to Catalonia
– can say, demonstration after demonstration, vote after vote, have shown a
growing chasm between Madrid and Barcelona politicians together with a growing
dissatisfaction within the richest and most developed region of the peninsula.

In Monday's editorials in Madrid,
centre-left daily El País encapsulated the national establishment's disarray when
presented with a situation they are unable to contain or repress. One editorial
asked Mr. Rajoy and Mr. Artur Mas (the Catalan head of government) to “come
back to the (negotiating) table”; another denounced the “day of disloyalty” in
Catalonia; a third said that, now, “Rajoy knows who is the leader (in
Catalonia)” and the last that “refusing to see the political effects of the N9
would be following the ostrich policy” while, in its Catalan edition, it wrote that “Mas has seized back the rudder”.

The
strong arm policy adopted by the PP since its victory at the 2011 national elections, has refused to engage in dialogue not based on an iron clad status quo.
Meanwhile, the PP have been playing the strategy of death by a thousand
cuts, i.e. of local prerogatives, first of all on language and education –
considered as provocations by Catalans so proud of their own culture. With such
an obstinate attitude to Catalonia, it is no wonder tensions have been
increasing steadily – then dramatically – for years.

What strikes one most when one looks
at statistics is that, since 2010 when, at the PP's request, the Constitutional
Court cancelled key provisions of a new Statute which had been ratified by
referendum by the Catalans and a vote of the Spanish Cortes, the percentage of
pro-independence has doubled to reach just under 50% (49.5% in recent polls).

A
large number of “new” nationalists have joined the “old” ones. Bourgeoisie from
Mr. Mas’ centre right CiU coalition, as well as leftists from Esquerra Republicana
(ERC) have united to protest the lack of prospects for their nation within
Spain. Another crucial reason has been Madrid's refusal to grant Catalonia a
“fiscal pact” allowing them to collect taxes, a privilege which the Basque
Country enjoys.

Contrary to what most Spanish
politicians say, or think, Catalan leaders are not
irresponsible firebrands who have been pushing Catalans to the streets only to
protect their own interests (financial or others) but have merely followed
their voters for fear of losing touch with them. Mr. Mas is almost as
conservative, economically and socially, as Mr. Rajoy.

Far
from being a revolutionary he has felt the rising tide of nationalism,
independentism or separatism – depending on which camp you are in – which
has, since 2010, frenetically grown to the point of threatening his party's
leadership, as shown in the last European elections and on recent polls showing
that the ERC had passed ahead of the CiU.

But, surprisingly enough, his bold
move might pay off. After weeks of hesitation - one step forward towards
organising his plebiscite, one step backwards when Madrid was threatening him
with court action - he has finally held to his promise.

Unable to use
government resources, as the Spanish Constitution does not allow local referenda,
he has banded together with civic movements and their joint organisation has
been flawless. Massive queues but no incidents. And his image as the legitimate
leader of a new Catalonia might well have been boosted. He voted, and expressed
himself after the vote as a statesman, by renewing his demand for negotiations on the basis of the N9 results. Far ahead of other nationalist leaders, and
before his main rival, ERC's Oriol Junqueras. And he has reinforced his
position as Mr. Rajoy's unavoidable interlocutor as the latter can no more bank
on an illusory “silent majority”, even if many Catalans remain weary if not
afraid of going it alone.

That is assuming that he wants to
negotiate and not to sue Mr. Mas for violation of the law. It is clear that the
Spanish head of government is under tremendous pressure from his own party as
well as from other national parties, including the PSOE, not to cave in to the
Catalans in the name of a united Spain. A Spain still ruled for several
centuries by a centralist elite in Madrid which has failed, unlike neighbouring France,
to unify a diverse country.

Yet, Spain is now a democracy and,
despite claims from a tiny neo-fascist fringe to send the Guardia Civil or
tanks to rebel Catalonia, the present crisis will have to be solved peacefully
through negotiations and not by sticking stubbornly to the letter of the
Constitution as more and more are now suggesting.

The present tactics have not
worked: Catalans who were said to cave in after the first threat now look
determined to soldier on. And the bunker diplomacy has shown its limits. The objective is now to reduce tensions and start talking. That is, provided both parties
agree to what to talk about and have the political credibility to move forward
in a country rotted to the core by corruption, which is affecting all political
parties - PP, PSOE or CiU - to the benefit of catch-all “protest” parties like Podemos.

All this will be difficult, as elections
are looming ahead, next spring in Spain and before 2016 in Catalonia. At this
time, politics usually reverts to type as parties promulgate short term
vote-winning policies and try to outflank each others’ deeply-rooted nationalism, whether it be Catalan or Castillian.

Will PP and CiU
do it and look for a - difficult - consensus? Will both sides accept their
differences and be able, or willing, to make the long term necessary efforts to
understand each other within a pluralist state? Will Catalan parties show enough statesmanship and band
together around crucial issues or, as they often do, bicker against each other
for more seats in Barcelona's Parliament? Otherwise it is clear that Catalans, and
Artur Mas, will go on restlessly demanding a referendum on self determination - and the crisis will become harder and harder to resolve.

Only history and common sense can tell us what will happen.

About the author

Patrice de Beer is former London and Washington correspondent for Le Monde

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