Tag: GDP

Recent economic data from the UK has improved but signs are that this is due to stockpiling ahead of worries over potential Brexit disruption. Brexit continues to dominate news and politics in the UK. Even lowly economists pray for a break from the mundane gridlock and circular arguments. Now that the Brexit deadline has been … Continue reading “Why a pick-up in UK growth may prove deceptive”

Japan had been fighting deflation for years since the great crash of its banks and property market thirty years ago. An ageing population saves a lot. Population numbers are falling so GDP will not grow as quickly as in places like the US and UK where migration adds to the numbers. Companies are worried about … Continue reading “Japan gets into party mood – how will markets respond?”

For 21 weeks now, the Gilets Jaunes have taken to the streets of French cities to protest. It began as a demonstration against high and rising fuel taxes. These tax increases hit families getting children to school and the adults to work, and cut the earnings of the self-employed working from their vans and cars. … Continue reading “Will France cut taxes in response to protests?”

Looking back to the start of this year (when the UK market was 5% lower than it is now), now in early March, it serves as a keen reminder of how powerful the effect of sentiment can be on investors. And of how quickly scares can fade from the memory. What has caused the mood … Continue reading “Market mood swing”

European equities had a tough 2018 with the benchmark MSCI Europe index falling 10.6% over the year. Trade wars, reduced support from central banks and slower economic growth were among the factors that saw higher risk assets such as equities fall out of favour. Despite the difficult global backdrop, the eurozone economy continued to expand … Continue reading “Are investors too pessimistic on European shares?”

The Japanese economy shrank in the third quarter. Poor export performance combined with a small reduction in demand at home to produce a 0.3% contraction. Japan is quite exposed to the dangers of the trade war, with good exporting companies needing a favourable background for their products. It also finds it difficult to expand domestic … Continue reading “How has Japan’s economy fared?”

Latest figures from the Office for National Statistics show the UK economy saw a small pick-up in GDP growth, but the overall environment remains sluggish. The preliminary estimate shows second quarter GDP growth at 0.3% compared to 0.2% in the first quarter, and matching consensus expectations. To put the recent growth figures into context, the … Continue reading “UK GDP growth remains sluggish”

UK inflation in November came in higher than expected, but we think that concerns over a damaging rise in prices over the next 12-18 months are overdone. On the face of it a sharp rise in inflation looks likely, with worrying implications. UK imports account for 30% of GDP and trade-weighted Sterling is 15% lower … Continue reading “Why 2017 UK inflation fears are overdone”

In their November infographic Schroders’ economists investigate globalisation and ask is it in crisis? They look at whether China’s problems are building and if deflation or inflation should be of greater concern to investors. The above Infographic was first published by Schroders on 17th November 2016.

The worriers are back warning us that China has borrowed too much. If China was assessed by the same standards as the advanced world, they would be taking a different view. In China, state debt is only around 40% of GDP, compared to six times that amount in neighbouring Japan. The hostile commentators look at … Continue reading “Has China borrowed too much?”

Investors like to worry. When you’ve got your money at risk it is natural to do so. It is commonplace to read about the very high levels of Japanese state debt, with some querying how much longer it can carry on. Japan has the highest level of state indebtedness of the main economies. Its gross … Continue reading “Should we worry about Japanese debts?”

Chinese GDP growth was in line with expectations but is there a slowdown ahead? Chinese third quarter GDP grew 6.7% year-on-year, in line with expectations, and unchanged from the second quarter. A breakdown of the data reveals an acceleration in primary industry and a smaller increase in the tertiary, or services, sector. Manufacturing managed stable … Continue reading “Stable growth for China as long term costs mount”

The UK has been battling down its government deficit for the last seven years. In the March Budget book they forecast an annual deficit of £55bn for the present year, down from £72 bn this year. They also forecast a falling path for UK state borrowing as a proportion of our GDP, with net debt … Continue reading “Sterling weakness and plenty of money”