Ousted Thai Leader Says He’ll Return but Forgo Politics

SETH MYDANS

Wednesday

Dec 26, 2007 at 4:13 AM

With his backers claiming victory in a parliamentary election, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra said that he was prepared to return to Thailand.

BANGKOK — With his backers claiming victory in a parliamentary election, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who was ousted in a coup 15 months ago, said Tuesday that he was prepared to return to Thailand in the next few months but that he would forgo politics.

Speaking at a news conference in Hong Kong, Mr. Thaksin said: “I will not take any political position. That’s enough. I am quitting politics.” But he said he was ready to give his ideas “free of charge” as an adviser to his allies. He has been on the telephone courting partners for a pro-Thaksin coalition government, party officials say.

Mr. Thaksin is Thailand’s most polarizing figure, and his presence in the country alone would inflame a political confrontation that was not resolved by the election on Sunday, which was intended to restore civilian rule.

The People Power Party, which backs him, won a large plurality and claims to have secured party alliances that will allow it to form a coalition government.

Its total, announced Tuesday, was 233 seats in the 480-seat Parliament. The Democrat Party, its main challenger, won 165 seats. Several smaller parties hold the balance of power, notably the Chart Thai Party, with 37 seats.

No other party has publicly acknowledged an alliance, and hard bargaining continued Tuesday, with the military and the political establishment putting their muscle behind the Democrats.

During his six-year tenure, Mr. Thaksin neutered democratic institutions and accumulated personal power, challenging the power of the military, the bureaucracy and the monarchist aristocracy. The junta called itself pro-democracy, but wrote a Constitution that further reduces democratic institutions, weakens political parties and the executive and ensures continuing political influence for the military.

A new pro-Thaksin government would in effect nullify the coup and challenge the military and the traditional elite.

Political alliances in Thailand are pragmatic and can shift quickly. Thirty days remain before a new government must be announced. In that period, the Election Commission may disqualify any candidate who has violated electoral rules, potentially changing a close outcome.

The commission will begin its review on Wednesday. The election commissioner, Sodsri Sathayatham, said at least 24 winners could be disqualified.

A return to power of Mr. Thaksin’s supporters, followed by his return from self-imposed exile in London, would be a humiliating repudiation of the generals and their backers and could rekindle the potentially violent confrontations that led to the coup.

At his news conference, Mr. Thaksin repeated comments that seemed calculated to calm his foes and excite the many poor and rural voters who have said he improved their lives by offering low-cost medical care, debt forgiveness and village funds.

He said that he was prepared to return between mid-February and April and ready to face corruption charges.

“I’m sure I can prove my innocence, as all the allegations are empty,” he said.

During the tenure of the junta, a court disbanded Mr. Thaksin’s political party, Thai Rak Thai, and barred him from politics for five years, with 110 other executives of his party.

The leader of the People Power Party, Samak Sundaravej, who openly calls himself a stand-in for Mr. Thaksin, said he might declare an amnesty for Mr. Thaksin and his allies, opening the door for a full revival of his political machine. Mr. Samak also said he might dissolve the Asset Examination Committee that had been investigating corruption charges against Mr. Thaksin.

Some pro-democracy groups said those steps could ignite full-blown opposition to a People Power government and lead to street demonstrations like those that shook Mr. Thaksin’s grip on power before the coup.

The main contenders to become prime minister reflect the differences in culture between their parties.

Mr. Samak, 72, is a pugnacious former governor of Bangkok and six-time cabinet minister who charms rural voters and infuriates the elite with his tough and sometimes trashy talk. He faces corruption charges from his days as governor, and he has been accused of stirring up the right-wing mobs that killed leftist students in 1976.

The leader of the Democrat Party, Abhisit Vejjajiva, 43, is a boyish, British-born graduate of Eton and Oxford who says his favorite book is “The Myth of Sisyphus,” by Albert Camus. He says he is a devotee of the singer Barry Manilow, who is not widely known in Thailand.

The differences between the parties run deeper than personalities, and Thailand has emerged from the election as polarized as ever. Its newly empowered rural majority faces a powerful urban elite. A traditional political establishment is challenged by the aggressive populist management of Mr. Thaksin’s forces.

A People Power Party-led coalition would be a frontal assault on the establishment, pitting the forces and interests of a majority of the electorate against those of a significant minority that includes Bangkok, Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a leading political analyst, wrote Tuesday in a commentary in The Bangkok Post.

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