No aviation concerns the next 24 hours, VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals. Southeast winds will increase to near 10-12kt sustained by this afternoon with gusts to 18-20kt.

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Previous discussion... /issued 345 am CDT sun Sep 15 2019/

Discussion...

Not much change to the current forecast. WV imagery shows the upper- lvl ridge that has covered the srn Continental U.S. The past couple of days has shifted east, courtesy of a trough over Arizona/nm, which has resulted in widespread convection there. This was an inverted trough 24 hrs ago, but is forecast to get absorbed in SW flow aloft later today and eject NE. As such, isolated convection cannot be ruled out in the far west/northwest for the next couple of days.

Farther north, a closed upper trough off the coast of b.C. Is forecast to open and make landfall on the West Coast by around 18z Monday, before ejecting NE into the upper Midwest by midweek. This will keep SW flow aloft over West Texas and southeast New Mexico and increase chances of convection a little farther into the County Warning Area Tue as it passes thru the region.

A stronger, secondary trough will follow the first, making landfall in Washington/or by 18z Wed. This feature is forecast to dig down thru nocal by 18z Thu before also ejecting into the upper Midwest over the weekend. By midweek, the SW to NE-oriented low level Theta-E ridge is forecast to re-establish over West Texas/southeast nm, and will result in increasing chances of convection thru Friday, when the secondary trough passes thru the region. Friday looks to be the best chance for convection area-wide, but long-term models are not in real good agreement by this time on speed/placement of the trough.

For temperatures, not much change as thicknesses remain rather constant through the week. Temperatures will continue above-normal, but not at all excessive.