Ebola Mutating: Sustained H2H Transmission

The research was done at Kenema Government Hospital in Sierra Leone, at the laboratory where USAMRIID was working with Corgenix Corporation and other
members of the Viral Hemorrhagic fever Consortium (VHFC). Five of the researchers caught Ebola and died.

The genetic analysis shows that after one single animal-to-human introduction of the Ebola virus in December 2013, ALL subsequent transmission has
been human-to-human. Telling people not to eat bushmeat is NOT the "best messaging," says lead researcher Sabeti, "people are the source of the
outbreak."

Now the Ebola virus is "mutating twice as fast as it did in the past when it lived in an animal “reservoir,”" says researcher and
virologist Robert Garry. "The longer this virus is allowed to propagate human to human, the more it is going to adapt," he warns. ....So those
who question the need to help stop this West African Ebola epidemic need to take heed.

The researchers, previously committed to secrecy and confidentiality - to profit, protecting Intellectual Property Rights and respecting corporate and
military Confidentiality Agreements - now have released their sequencing information into the public domain as 'Open Access" scientific information.
They are calling for the global scientific community to participate in crowd-sourcing

To accelerate response efforts, the research team released the full-length sequences on National Center for Biotechnology Information’s (NCBI’s)
DNA sequence database in advance of publication, making these data available to the global scientific community.

“By making the data immediately available to the community, we hope to accelerate response efforts,” said co-senior author Pardis Sabeti, a
senior associate member at the Broad Institute and an associate professor at Harvard University. “Upon releasing our first batch of Ebola sequences
in June, some of the world’s leading epidemic specialists contacted us, and many of them are now also actively working on the data. We were honored
and encouraged. A spirit of international and multidisciplinary collaboration is needed to quickly shed light on the ongoing outbreak.”

The action of releasing what's normally "secret" information protected by Intellectual Property law represents an astounding paradigm shift. This is a
game changer. And anyone who knows anything will recognize this actions means the situation is desperately dire.

....We observed a rapid accumulation of interhost and intrahost genetic variation, allowing us to characterize patterns of viral transmission over the
initial weeks of the epidemic. This West African variant likely diverged from Middle African lineages ~2004, crossed from Guinea to Sierra Leone in
May 2014, and has exhibited sustained human-to-human transmission subsequently, with no evidence of additional zoonotic sources. Since many of
the mutations alter protein sequences and other biologically meaningful targets, they should be monitored for impact on diagnostics, vaccines, and
therapies critical to outbreak response.

Thanks for staying on top of this. Along the same lines I did read an article posted on Drudge that said the researchers believe the virus has mutated
38 times since their guesstimated ground zero area in Zaire.. I expect this next month we will see just how big of a foothold it has established
itself and where it is likely to continue to spread.. I also read many of the international airlines have canceled their flights to certain countries
in Africa.. We will see if it was to little to late... There were dogs eating the dead from shallow graves... the dogs supposedly will not get the
virus and die but can and will be possible carriers.. What a horrible disease and if the dogs become carriers then who knows where it will spread to ?

originally posted by: Vasa Croe
Yay! Next up....airborne mutation, unless of course that has already happened and we just are not being told about it. Get ready for this to hit in
a large city near you!

1. Based on 3,069 reported cases (at August 26, 2014), the case total will reach 196,416 within about 6 months, and up to 12,570,624 cases after a
year.

2. The WHO estimates unreported cases bring the total to 12,000 cases, which means cases would rise to 384,000 cases with in 6 months and
24,576,000 cases after a year.

3. Most likely the real case rate is much higher. There are no accessible hospitals or clinics for most West Africans - no one to test and diagnose,
and no one to report new cases. Realistically, the actual case total is probably closer to 20,000 already. If that's true, then by 6 months the
case total will be 640,000 and by one year - 40,960,000 cases.

originally posted by: 727Sky
Thanks for staying on top of this. ....I also read many of the international airlines have canceled their flights to certain countries in Africa.. We
will see if it was to little to late...

You're welcome. S&

But - The 'too little too late' happened when resources were not sent to the original outbreak(s) originating from Kenema Government Hospital in
Sierra Leone, and maybe Irrua Teaching Hospital and University of Lagos in Nigeria. You know - back when all the "experts" were saying "Ebola
always burns itself out and never spreads, so it's not really a problem." Back then. When nobody would listen to Doctors Without Borders (MSF)
when they were begging for help. ...They're still begging btw.

Also fyi - Cancelling flights just keeps needed resources out of West Africa - and quarantine does NOT work in this kind of situation. It's way
past that. ....and it won't work to try and quarantine the entire continent either.

In order to "fix" this - the world has to bring all its resources to bear in West Africa. Now.

I hope w/ the sickness in the air and many terror threats that humanity doesn't begin to require number attachment, that shares your global
citizenship affiliation and health information, which allows access or not into certain places depending on credentials associated w/ number system.
As tracking method is a reason to do such. Would the terrorist act in such ways if they knew they were instigating a marking tracking system that
would totally override their interest 1 wonders...

originally posted by: soficrow
The action of releasing what's normally "secret" information protected by Intellectual Property law represents an astounding paradigm shift. This is a
game changer. And anyone who knows anything will recognize this actions means the situation is desperately dire.

It is most definitely a shift in paradigm. One that has been bubbling to the surface for a while.

While this situation is dire, it is not this specific scenario that has spurred this on. It was a contributing factor, but look at this as a test run
of sorts. A point in space in time that is to determine the future of humanity. The severity of this situation should ensure greater participation,
which has historically been a major stumbling block.

Look for more 'normally "secret" information protected by IP laws' to be crowdsourced in the near future. The next step is to implement a framework
that provides compensation for participation on a universal scale (not just viral research).

(CNN) -- The West African country of Senegal has confirmed its first Ebola case one week after closing its borders with Guinea over fears that
the deadly outbreak could spread, the Senegalese Press Agency reported Friday.

Senegal's health minister, Awa Marie Coll Seck, confirmed that a 21-year-old university student from Guinea was infected with the Ebola virus and
placed in quarantine in the Fann Hospital in Dakar, the news agency reported.

Officials in Guinea alerted Senegal on August 27 after losing track of the young man, the agency reported.

Ah. That's standard 'old' Zaire. One of the many ways this ZEBOV epidemic is different is that it has a fatality rate around 52% (not 47% as I said
earlier), depending on the location. Or timing? Maybe it's becoming less fatal?

originally posted by: soficrow
The action of releasing what's normally "secret" information protected by Intellectual Property law represents an astounding paradigm shift. This
is a game changer. And anyone who knows anything will recognize this actions means the situation is desperately dire.

It is most definitely a shift in paradigm. One that has been bubbling to the surface for a while.

While this situation is dire, it is not this specific scenario that has spurred this on. .....

The push for 'Open Access' to scientific information is an old one, sure, and I've done my share over the past decade to promote it. But I doubt
this research would have opened up to the global community unless the current situation pretty much demanded it. It is a real sign of the current
desperate need.

originally posted by: soficrow
The push for 'Open Access' to scientific information is an old one, sure, and I've done my share over the past decade to promote it. But I doubt this
research would have opened up to the global community unless the current situation pretty much demanded it. It is a real sign of the current desperate
need.

Perhaps I wasn't clear, I was expanding the narrative and not denying it.

"Never let a serious crisis go to waste" is a phrase that is generally associated with actions that are to the detriment of the people. Frequently,
that is exactly the case. But, it can also refer to actions that are beneficial to the people. It all depends on how those in power use it.

Now that it is open source, we can come together to solve the problem instead of the 'throw money at it' tactic. The latter leads to easy money that
can be obfuscated and hidden easily, as well as limiting it to an insular group of scientists that are probably highly compartmentalized to begin
with.

Perhaps there is a battle within the 'oligarchy' on how to use these tools from here on out. And, ideally, phase many of them out.

Ah. That's standard 'old' Zaire. One of the many ways this ZEBOV epidemic is different is that it has a fatality rate around 52% (not 47% as I said
earlier), depending on the location. Or timing? Maybe it's becoming less fatal?

Hmmm..well that makes me wonder if it is going to infect and mutate to the point that it becomes more like a "parasitic" virus that thrives on the
host but wants to keep the host alive. Kind of like a bacterial infection. Maybe it is mutating so it does NOT kill the host but has to kill
multiple hosts during the mutation period to get it correct.

Many of my earliest posts on this topic have been about the dangers of this virus poses once the mutations begin to take effect.

Of the many possibilities is a trade-off between lethality and ease of transmission:

The trade-off hypothesis suggests that there is a trade off between how long the virus or other pathogen is able to persist in its host and the
rate at which the virus or other pathogen can be transmitted. The trade off hypothesis suggests that virulence will evolve to a level at which
virulence and transmission is balanced so as to maximize the spread of the virus.

Viral lines with the higher enforced rate of infectious transmission evolved higher virulence and higher rates of virus production. These results
support the trade-off model for the evolution of virulence.

If this virus behaves like ever other virus in history, the longer the outbreak continues, the more evolved the virus will become. It will seek any
way possible to extend its ability to exist, including trading some of it's ability to kill it's host with ease of transmission.

Airborne is not the only possible mutation which would increase the transmission rate, there is also indirect contact:

Following the introduction of Ebola virus in the human population through animal-to-human transmission, person-to-person transmission by direct
contact bodily fluids/secretions of infected persons is considered the principal mode of transmission. Indirect contact with environment and
fomites soiled with contaminated bodily fluids (e.g. needles) may also occur. Airborne transmission has not been documented during previous
EVD outbreaks.

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