North Wales GP service is 'three years from collapse'

British Medical Association and local doctors are warning of a looming crisis in general practice health care due to aged workforce

45% of GPs in North Wales are aged 55 or over and looking to retire within four years

Doctors in North Wales are warning of a looming GPs crisis which could bring the system to “collapse” within three years.

Around two in three GP practices in the region have at least one vacancy, with an estimated shortfall of between 80-100 medics, according to the British Medical Association.

Increasing workloads for GPs are blamed for problems in recruiting young trainees, while many experienced family doctors are approaching retirement or taking pensions early to quit.

Dr Eamonn Jessup, who practises in Prestatyn, the chair of the Local Medical Committee, said 45% of GPs in North Wales are aged 55 or over.

“These are doctors who will be looking to retire in the next three to four years. In three years time, or perhaps less, the GP system in North Wales could collapse.”

Doctors under stress were more prone to mistakes or became more risk averse, putting more pressure on hospitals.

Patients would face longer waits for appointments, while some services like contraceptive advice or minor surgery would be dropped.

He cited a surgery Beechley Medical Centre in Wrexham where two doctors had resigned, and recruitment by the health board had failed to find replacements. The 3,800 patients there were being seen by locums.

“We need to raise awareness that this crisis in coming because the Welsh Government doesn’t want to believe there is a crisis.”

In his own practice in Prestatyn, there were three of the five partners over 58 and the number had fallen from nine.

“There will come a breaking point.”

He said GPs lists had risen on average from around 2,000 to 3,800 while numbers of sessions had risen from six to nine a week.

Across the UK, the BMA says the numbers of patient consultations had risen from 224m in 1995 to 340m in 2013, with 17% of adults saying they had seen their GP in the previous two weeks.

Dr Sara Brodey, 45, who works in Mold, said she was one of few GPs in their 40s who was now a principal in a practice in the region, with five-and-a-half partners caring for 9,800 patients.

Women account for more than 70% of medical graduates and many rejected general practice because of the long hours and lifestyle pressures.

“I have got family roots here which is why I stayed but this isn’t the case for many potential GPs and some are put off when they see how hard their trainers are having to work.

“Women also have babies, which shouldn’t be a surprise to the planners. A common time for them to leave the profession is in their mid-30s, after qualifying at 28.”

North Wales AM Mark Isherwood said according to the Royal College of General Practitioners,real terms spending on GP practices in Wales had dropped by more than £27m over three years, with the average age of GPs in North Wales now over 50, described as “a ticking time bomb”.

A Welsh Government spokesperson said: “We recognise there are concerns about GP recruitment and retention, especially in some rural communities.

“Where there are recruitment issues which need to be addressed, the Welsh Government is working in collaboration with the Royal College of GPs, the Wales Deanery, GPC Wales and health boards to promote Wales as an attractive place to live and work.”

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The Editor

Mark Thomas

Liverpool-born Mark joined the Daily Post in January 2014 after seven years as editor of its Merseyside sister title the Liverpool Post. He started out as a weekly news reporter on Wirral Newspapers, and spent seven years at the Daily Post and Liverpool Echo. He was The Press Association's regional correspondent for North Wales, Merseyside and Cheshire from 1983 to 1997, before returning to the ECHO as deputy news editor. He has won a number of journalism awards, including the UK Press Gazzette Regional Reporter of the Year award, and in 1993 wrote a book on the James Bulger murder.