Best motion picture - Drama

Who will win: "Lincoln"Upset special: "Argo"Lowdown: Don't discount the influence of DreamWorks longtime awards publicity team. They may not all work for the company full time anymore, but the followers of Spielberg have been at this since "Saving Private Ryan" and they have always been able to swing the HFPA. "Argo" could surprise, but "Lincoln" will get this crown.