The State of Modern Thread (B&R 11/03/2019)

dunno why you guys are bringing up control in reference to tron. straight UW control vs. tron isnt a lopsided matchup at all, and its debatable if UW isnt actually slightly favored based on configuration. cant speak for esper, but it looks alright. really its just jeskai that struggles.

Motivation for playing modern seems to be dwindling by the week. I asked myself why I make this a priority still, as attendance is continuing to fall week in and week out. Last Friday we had 11 people registered for Modern FNM, when it was fairly common to have anywhere from 20 to 40 people on average. Not sure if I am even going out tonight. The new B&R update, as well as Modern Horizons can't come soon enough.

Modern attendance has been way, way down in Gainesville lately. It's a college town, and students just had finals and graduation, but we couldn't even get 6 to fire for the last few weeks. Last July to January or so, we had a pretty reliable 12-16. Lots of the losses are younger kids who are in on one deck that's fallen out of favor, and I think they get discouraged and bail. It sucks. I have the money and ability to swap cards and even decks if I want to, but these 8th graders, many of them very good players, are all-in on stuff like Abzan Company and UR Wizards, both of which are pretty out of favor.

Motivation for playing modern seems to be dwindling by the week. I asked myself why I make this a priority still, as attendance is continuing to fall week in and week out. Last Friday we had 11 people registered for Modern FNM, when it was fairly common to have anywhere from 20 to 40 people on average. Not sure if I am even going out tonight. The new B&R update, as well as Modern Horizons can't come soon enough.

The assumption that we all had to wait for Horizon's before anything would get done has killed even the desire to discuss the format, let alone play it. I've played maybe 4 matches in probably 3 months in my LabMan/Jace self mill Turns deck.

Still though, since we assume Horizons fill 'fix' the meta, its just not worth talking about what at the highest level is painfully repetitive Magic.

It's not just Modern Horizons. Many people are speculating on there being a new format going between modern and standard due to Arena. I could easily see one forming, but it is going to really depend on how enduring Arena can be.

Private Mod Note
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Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack

1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!

There is nothing to fix about this meta. Make it better? Sure. I don't see any major issues, so even if you don't change anything, it seems great.
Does London mulligan change the picture and neoform or Tron look possible ban candidates? Maybe yes, maybe not. But that's about it.

I will not be replying to rebuttals that are not at least as fleshed out as my assertion. If you're grown up enough to use the internet, you are grown up enough to understand that posturing, nit picking, and corner cases are not enough to constitute a rebuttal to an argument. You will attack my argument in full or you will not be getting a response from me.

1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!

What? We just had a Humans vs Affinity pro tour final. We just had Humans as one of the best decks(and 3 copies into the top 8 and no mention at all?), UWx Control is gaining traction because of the new cards and MH is probably going to boost most of the fair decks.

Colt, I know you just come in here to speak about a new format or make frontier look glorious; but let's get real.

Modern is going to be the premier non-rotating format for many years to come and I predict there is going to be a Modern Horizons 2, because MH is probably going to be a huuuuge success.

I will not be replying to rebuttals that are not at least as fleshed out as my assertion. If you're grown up enough to use the internet, you are grown up enough to understand that posturing, nit picking, and corner cases are not enough to constitute a rebuttal to an argument. You will attack my argument in full or you will not be getting a response from me.

There is nothing to fix about this meta. Make it better? Sure. I don't see any major issues, so even if you don't change anything, it seems great.
Does London mulligan change the picture and neoform or Tron look possible ban candidates? Maybe yes, maybe not. But that's about it.

Although it's one tournament, I can definitely see a potential problem in Neoform.

I 4-0ed FNM very, very easily. I did drop 2 games, compared with none when I ran Humans the week before, but the turn average was probably around 3 at the most. For reference, I did 3-0-1 with Elves the week before I ran Humans (beat Abzan Little Kid for funsies and the "4-0"), but previous to that, I 2-2, 1-3, and 2-2 with assorted decks at the same FNM. If you read my report in the Keanu Reeves (probably a terrible name) thread, my rounds 1 and 2 were hilarious. They were essentially hardly "Magic" rounds and understand this, I'm a Combo player saying this.

You miss the point when we are looking at the same shell with 5 (6 if you count the Thing versions) different attempts at a win condition. You may not like the style of deck, you dont have to, the fact its being attempted still means many people did/do and that its still lacking.

What? We just had a Humans vs Affinity pro tour final. We just had Humans as one of the best decks(and 3 copies into the top 8 and no mention at all?), UWx Control is gaining traction because of the new cards and MH is probably going to boost most of the fair decks.

Colt, I know you just come in here to speak about a new format or make frontier look glorious; but let's get real.

Modern is going to be the premier non-rotating format for many years to come and I predict there is going to be a Modern Horizons 2, because MH is probably going to be a huuuuge success.

I was actually serious. I didn't keep track of modern the past few weeks so it was a legitimate question, not sarcasm.

Also Frontier isn't glorious, it's a niche format that has a cult following. That and I'm not holding my breath for anything WoTC pushes as a format to hold, but I do know some people who are speculating on that inbetween standard and modern format.

Technically, EDH seems to be having a huge boom thanks to War of the Spark, given the price trends I've seen.

Private Mod Note
():

Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack

1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!

You miss the point when we are looking at the same shell with 5 (6 if you count the Thing versions) different attempts at a win condition. You may not like the style of deck, you dont have to, the fact its being attempted still means many people did/do and that its still lacking.

Ya exactly. That new jace / leveler combo looked like it was seriously about 80%, or higher maybe, the same cards as the last version of splinter twin and this combo wins on the spot too. This is probably a flash in the pan like the other finishers listed above as twin replacements, but I was struck by the similarities and decided to point it out. And remember there were only two levelers, this is not an all in combo list because most games won't find both peices you need, this is a snap caster beat down control deck with a rare combo finish. This shell may be more resiliant than we thought with any two card combo fitting in that slot.

This phenomenon is a direct result of players desperately wanting to play a Snap/Bolt Control/Tempo deck after theirs was nuked from orbit and every other possible alternative was either a completely different deck, or aggressively mediocre. The long-standing frustration over Twin is not an accident or a coincidence. Pretty much every other banned deck has lived on or even thrived in one form or another except Twin. Never mind the other similar decks it enabled, since people would treat non-Twin decks as if they had Twin, and slow down, thus giving them a fighting chance to do well. *sigh*

You miss the point when we are looking at the same shell with 5 (6 if you count the Thing versions) different attempts at a win condition. You may not like the style of deck, you dont have to, the fact its being attempted still means many people did/do and that its still lacking.

Ya exactly. That new jace / leveler combo looked like it was seriously about 80%, or higher maybe, the same cards as the last version of splinter twin and this combo wins on the spot too. This is probably a flash in the pan like the other finishers listed above as twin replacements, but I was struck by the similarities and decided to point it out. And remember there were only two levelers, this is not an all in combo list because most games won't find both peices you need, this is a snap caster beat down control deck with a rare combo finish. This shell may be more resiliant than we thought with any two card combo fitting in that slot.

Yeah the higher costs on the 'combo' elements, and the lack of flash will forever (I would predict) keep this from being among the top players, but hey, I jammed hundreds of matches with various Blue Moon decks, so by all means enjoy.

What? We just had a Humans vs Affinity pro tour final. We just had Humans as one of the best decks(and 3 copies into the top 8 and no mention at all?), UWx Control is gaining traction because of the new cards and MH is probably going to boost most of the fair decks.

Colt, I know you just come in here to speak about a new format or make frontier look glorious; but let's get real.

Modern is going to be the premier non-rotating format for many years to come and I predict there is going to be a Modern Horizons 2, because MH is probably going to be a huuuuge success.

I was actually serious. I didn't keep track of modern the past few weeks so it was a legitimate question, not sarcasm.

Also Frontier isn't glorious, it's a niche format that has a cult following. That and I'm not holding my breath for anything WoTC pushes as a format to hold, but I do know some people who are speculating on that inbetween standard and modern format.

Technically, EDH seems to be having a huge boom thanks to War of the Spark, given the price trends I've seen.

Not so much speculation as it is an inevitability. They launch a new online client that only supports cards in a rotating standard format and those cards can be bought with real world money; once those cards rotate out, WotC isn't going to make an announcement telling Arena players "Well, we forgot to put the whole rotation thing in the tutorial; but fun while it lasted, right?". Partly due to the fact that WotC would rather suffer from Ebola than participate in any form of direct community outreach, but mostly due to the fact that Arena was a planned project and turned out to be a gold mine for WotC + Hasbro shareholders. The need for another format/game function to ensure players don't feel conned come rotation is likely one of the first things WotC considered. It's also likely that solution will be confined to the Arena client only.

Standard is in the best place its been for quite some time and Modern is about to receive the largest single infusion of new cards in the format's history. I'd buy them maybe wanting to try out something like a "Legacy-Lite" were a new format introduced to the paper game, but there's no need for a frontier 2.0 in the paper game. Sure, I'd imagine some players would try it out in paper, but anything of the sort would be created for the sole purpose of maintaining the illusion for some Arena players that their collections aren't completely worthless come rotation time. I'm pretty computer savvy when it comes to hardware and building machines, but I don't know the first thing about programming; if it's feasible for WotC to realistically port over older cards/formats into Arena one day then maybe they'll put some thought into it, but I wouldn't be surprised if they just rip Hearthstone, call it "Wild", and figure it out as they go.

What? We just had a Humans vs Affinity pro tour final. We just had Humans as one of the best decks(and 3 copies into the top 8 and no mention at all?), UWx Control is gaining traction because of the new cards and MH is probably going to boost most of the fair decks.

Colt, I know you just come in here to speak about a new format or make frontier look glorious; but let's get real.

Modern is going to be the premier non-rotating format for many years to come and I predict there is going to be a Modern Horizons 2, because MH is probably going to be a huuuuge success.

I was actually serious. I didn't keep track of modern the past few weeks so it was a legitimate question, not sarcasm.

Also Frontier isn't glorious, it's a niche format that has a cult following. That and I'm not holding my breath for anything WoTC pushes as a format to hold, but I do know some people who are speculating on that inbetween standard and modern format.

Technically, EDH seems to be having a huge boom thanks to War of the Spark, given the price trends I've seen.

Not so much speculation as it is an inevitability. They launch a new online client that only supports cards in a rotating standard format and those cards can be bought with real world money; once those cards rotate out, WotC isn't going to make an announcement telling Arena players "Well, we forgot to put the whole rotation thing in the tutorial; but fun while it lasted, right?". Partly due to the fact that WotC would rather suffer from Ebola than participate in any form of direct community outreach, but mostly due to the fact that Arena was a planned project and turned out to be a gold mine for WotC + Hasbro shareholders. The need for another format/game function to ensure players don't feel conned come rotation is likely one of the first things WotC considered. It's also likely that solution will be confined to the Arena client only.

Standard is in the best place its been for quite some time and Modern is about to receive the largest single infusion of new cards in the format's history. I'd buy them maybe wanting to try out something like a "Legacy-Lite" were a new format introduced to the paper game, but there's no need for a frontier 2.0 in the paper game. Sure, I'd imagine some players would try it out in paper, but anything of the sort would be created for the sole purpose of maintaining the illusion for some Arena players that their collections aren't completely worthless come rotation time. I'm pretty computer savvy when it comes to hardware and building machines, but I don't know the first thing about programming; if it's feasible for WotC to realistically port over older cards/formats into Arena one day then maybe they'll put some thought into it, but I wouldn't be surprised if they just rip Hearthstone, call it "Wild", and figure it out as they go.

I agree with everything you stated except for the state of standard. I guess you can call it karma finally doing it's thing, but the net deck culture has completely obliterated the game as far as the one vs one matches. This is going to encourage wizards to push for more Dragons style type flex cards over the original cheap and low cost narrow answers they used to print a lot, resulting in a power creep of the 2-4 cmc spells much like how we saw a power creep of the 2-4 mana creature spells back around Kahns -> Kaladesh. Wizards actually power crept the 4-6 cmc slots in Amonkhet -> Rivals to push a top end format, and I'd argue that some of the things we see now are stronger than even the dragons out of Dragons of Tarkir or the Eldrazi in BFZ. The only things close to the new creatures in the 5-6 cmc are the original Eldrazi and trons two signature top end walkers.

Also, standard health is partially linked to the Limited and Draft environments of Arena. A lot of people who dump tons of time into arena use the two as a way to optimize their card acquisition, and War is a very "you get a bomb or die" limited experience. So regardless of how nice the money looks coming in from MTG:A, this looks a bit like WoW going out of Wrath of the Lich King to Cataclysm.

Private Mod Note
():

Rollback Post to RevisionRollBack

1. (Ravnica Allegiance): You can't keep a good esper control deck down... Or Wilderness Reclamation... or Gates...
2. (War of the Spark): Guys, I know what we need! We need a cycle of really idiotic flavor text victory cards! Jace's Triumph...
3. (War of the Spark): Lets make the format with control have even more control!

Modern attendance has been way, way down in Gainesville lately. It's a college town, and students just had finals and graduation, but we couldn't even get 6 to fire for the last few weeks. Last July to January or so, we had a pretty reliable 12-16. Lots of the losses are younger kids who are in on one deck that's fallen out of favor, and I think they get discouraged and bail. It sucks. I have the money and ability to swap cards and even decks if I want to, but these 8th graders, many of them very good players, are all-in on stuff like Abzan Company and UR Wizards, both of which are pretty out of favor.

Where do you play in Gainesville? I used to play there all the time a couple of years ago, mostly at Mega Gaming and Comics.