Y2K Myth

I guess this is more or a statement then a question. The problem with this whole phenomena is the people who were getting everyone all excited about this DON'T work in this industry. Just like the people publishing books on HOW to raise children DON'T HAVE any of their own. I'm amazed that people, like sheep, follow so blindly someones opinion without first researching that person. Have they WORKED in the REAL world? Or have they always hidden behind a desk at some university. In the computer industry, universities are pretty much a joke when it comes to preparing people to enter the computer work force. I have worked in this industry for 20 years and I would mostly just laugh when one of my family of friends asked me about the Y2K bug. Unfortunately, there were respected individuals convincing people that the End Is Near.

I just wish and hope that people will LEARN to NOT blindly believe everything they read no matter WHO says it, including me. RESEARCH the source first, and ALWAYS go get 2nd, 3rd, and 4th opinions. Especially before you turn your life upside down.

Terry, you don't understand the basic, underlying premise here. These
people are obsessed with conspiracies. Trust me, any conspiracy will
do and nothing is too preposterous. Y2K is just the latest. In a
month or two they will all move on to something else just as absurd
or worse.

This forum has little to do with computers, it has to do with people
who live their lives in fear of everything. Whether it be the
Government, the Bermuda triangle or little green men from Mars, it
makes no difference to them. They prefer to live in their pathetic
little worlds, professing to be the keepers of some arcane and
esoteric knowledge that is being covered up by the powers that be for
whatever reason. And the rest of us are too blind and stupid to
figure it out for ourselves.

Please, these people deserve our sympathy, not our derision.

Just remember everyone, truly saving oneself has little to do with
how much you store up, but how much you give away.

The 'end is near' isn't what we have been concerned about. What
concerns me -- and it still does -- are all of those long JIT supply
lines to companies in countries that have still done nothing. What
concerned me -- and it still does -- is the very real potential for a
depression.

What concerns me is when Downstreamer -- who has steadily resisted
admitting problems in the oil industry -- reports that problems
abound.

It doesn't concern me when you make stupid and self serving posts of
this nature, patting yourself on the back for being right (so far).

I guess if people would just use a little common sense and step back
from the situation and THINK about it for a minute, they might
realize that most industries have been dealing with Y2K for as much
as 30 years. Or don't they think that industries never calculate out
numbers for 30 years in advance. For example, mortgages, credit card
expirations, vehicle registrations, etc...

Years ago, certain men had the ability to grasp firmly the concepts
and fundamentals of every known field of science, art and
thought...they were called Rennasaince men. These men would be able
to literally know almost everything there was to know. That is an
impossible task today.

Ironically, it is the Y2K "division of labor" argument which makes it
impossible to for any one man to know everything there is to know. We
are therefore dependant upon the knowledge and wisdom of the experts
of these specialized fields of knowledge. The specialization of
knowledge is so divided as to have left us depending upon MULTIPLE
experts, even in the same general field. Just in the IT field, there
are many, many subdivisions of expertise. (And believe me...anyone
who has visited this board for any length of time will tell you how
often the IT experts clashed even on the most basic premises of the
Y2K issue).

So in retrospect, it is dificult to imagine anyone who didn't play
the role of sheeple at least for part of the time.

Personally, I had to rely upon the understanding of many people...and
I still do. I would have never come here if I wasn't in a position to
defer to someone else's geater understanding. That's why I think that
it is disingenuous of pollies and doomers alike to resort to "I told
you so" posting. It only serves to alienate and deeply offend those
who sincerely believed they were doing the right thing.

Terry, you don't understand the basic, underlying premise here. These
people [Who are these people that you are referring to? Doomers, all
forum contributors?] are obsessed with conspiracies. Trust me, any
conspiracy will do and nothing is too preposterous. Y2K is just the
latest. In a month or two they will all move on to something else
just as absurd or worse.

This forum has little to do with computers, it has to do with people
who live their lives in fear of everything.[How long have you been
posting here? Long enough to draw the outlandish and laughable
conclusion that follows?] Whether it be the Government, the Bermuda
triangle or little green men from Mars, it makes no difference to
them. They prefer to live in their pathetic little worlds, professing
to be the keepers of some arcane and esoteric knowledge that is being
covered up by the powers that be for whatever reason. And the rest of
us are too blind and stupid to figure it out for ourselves.

Please, these people deserve our sympathy, not our derision.[So if
these people deserve our sympathy, then why do you call them obsessed
and pathetic?]

Just remember everyone, truly saving oneself has little to do with
how much you store up, but how much you give away.[Which generous
part of yourself are YOU giving away? It certainly can't be
compassion and understanding, can it?]

God bless, Jeff [Funny that you would invoke God's name while your
soul is full of contempt and condescension]

Terry - wouldn't you consider Ed Yourdon a computer professional who
has worked in the real world? I gather from your post that you are
not a mainframe programmer. Every mainframe COBOL programmer saw
enough Y2K problems in their career to know that Y2K was not a hoax.

Approximately how many of "these people" have you found on the
forum? Why would you wish to incorrectly categorize the vast
majority of the forum this way together with the small portion who
may believe some of these things? Does this somehow make you feel
superior? Do you get a "rush" of "self-esteem" when you do
this?

Further, you know that some people who are overwhelmed at the idea
that there are many types of people tend to arbitrarily group people
by one (usually inconsequential) characteristic or idea or flaw they
may have, and assume that they therefore somehow think alike; that
the remainder of their ideas and characteristics and personalities
are either less relevant or irrelevant.

Intellectually lazy people do this, as well as racists and others.

Try to resist these tendencies, Jeff. See and treat people as
individuals, judge them accordingly, and maybe you'll get a little
respect.

A recent internal publication issued by International Business
Machines Corp. focused on the Y2K problem, advises employees
around the world to make personal contingency plans and be prepared
on personal finances, including putting aside some extra cash.

The special 1999 issue of IBM's Think magazine, headlined
simply "Understanding Y2K," also advises workers to be flexible about
vacation plans and to be prepared for unusually heavy workloads in
the fourth quarter of 1999 and first quarter of 2000.

"In planning for the transition to 2000, nothing is being taken for
granted, and few scenarios are too far-fetched," it warns.

For personal living preparations, it largely relies on the
recommendations of the American Red Cross, available on the Internet
at www.redcross.org/disaster/ safety/y2k.html.

"Stock non-perishable foods, water and medications you use
regularly," the IBM publication says. "Have some extra cash on hand;
fill your gas tank a day or so before New Year's Eve; and have
blankets, gloves, flashlights and extra batteries on hand in case of
power failures." (It suggests candles are hazardous.)

While the document says "there's no reason to panic," it also
suggests that employees "should talk to your personal bank/credit
union/health-care provider about whether they are ready." It also
cautions people to "beware of rumours," particularly spread over the
Internet.

While personal preparation suggestions are often cited by Y2K
skeptics as coming from the lunatic fringe, it's quite another thing
coming from IBM or the Red Cross.

But IBM acknowledges it has been essentially near "ground zero" in
the whole Y2K phenomenon. In 1964, it reminds us, IBM introduced the
System/360 mainframe, and used a two-digit year to conserve space on
punch cards.

Indeed it is a former IBMer-- Peter de Jager -- who became dubbed the
Paul Revere of the Y2K crisis when he issued his call for action in a
1993 article in Computerworld magazine, headlined "Doomsday 2000."

Last March, Mr. de Jager declared Doomsday had, in fact, been
avoided, asserting that the world had at least broken the back of Y2K
enough to avert the most far-out "end of the world as we know it"
apocalyptic scenarios.

That doesn't mean there won't be days or weeks of disruptions. What's
remarkable about the IBM publication is its repeated reminders
that "all markets, all businesses, all governments and all
communities are interconnected."

In fact, IBM's graphic descriptions of Y2K interconnectedness
and interdependencies aren't radically different from the dire
falling-domino theories of such Y2K doomsayers as Dr. Gary North and
Joe Boivin.

"It's not enough to convert your own business, because you're not
ready until your entire supply chain is," IBM says.

"It's not enough to live in a Y2K-ready neighborhood unless all its
interwoven threads -- businesses, schools, neighbourhood
associations, police and fire departments -- are ready. Y2K will
throw these interconnections into sharp relief."

The publication warns of the billions of embedded chips contained in
such diverse technologies as oil-drilling equipment, airplanes,
medical devices and microwave ovens.

But Y2K, according to IBM, is not primarily about the way we code
dates in computer software, hardware or components. Rather, "it's
mostly about how information technology has spread throughout our
economy, society and personal lives."

IBM recognizes that opinions about the consequences of not being Y2K-
ready "range all over the map. Perhaps the biggest problem with Y2K
is that no one knows exactly what will happen."

From its interaction with customers around the world, IBM does not
see anything to support predictions of a global recession or some
kind of "digital winter."

It says large U.S. organizations "should be ready," although it
is "less certain ... how small businesses and less developed nations
will fare... Many are on the move now, but they've got to pick up the
pace."

IBM met with some internal resistance when it began one year ago --
relatively late in the game -- to gather data on contingency plans.
It eventually came up with 10 scenarios "that could possibly go
wrong -- from applications and systems failures to disruptions in
utilities, telephone and public mail services." It called the
exercise sobering.

That's why businesses have developed contingency plans and why
individuals should also regard some personal preparations as a form
of insurance against disruptions.

The Red Cross suggests having on hand at least a three-day supply of
household staples. This is consistent with the most conservative Y2K-
preparation gurus, who compare any possible disruptions to a weekend
storm. There are plenty of Y2K experts who argue for a month or many
months of supplies.

The Red Cross Disaster Supplies Kit checklist includes storing a
gallon of water per person per day, non-perishable food, a first-aid
kit, non-prescription drugs, various sanitation items such as toilet
paper, tools such as flashlights and battery-operated radio, a non-
electric can opener, warm clothing, extra eyeglasses or contact
lenses and much more.

Canadian Y2K gurus would add to the list a supply of firewood for a
fireplace or wood stove.

Don't wait until the final few weeks, since such supplies could be
unavailable, scarce or very costly.

Coming from prominent Y2K gloom-and-doomers, such survival
contingency plans might appear ludicrous. But when they come from IBM
and the Red Cross, maybe -- just maybe --there may be cause to take
at least the teensiest bit of personal preparations.

Besides, even if Y2K ends up a blustery gust rather than a raging
storm, there's always the possibility a major blizzard or other act
of God could strike.

Residents of Eastern Canada who suffered through the ice storm almost
two years ago would have welcomed having a lot more than the Red
Cross' three days worth of provisions. Mr. de Jager told CTV News
last week that two or three weeks of provisions would be prudent.