Q – Hello Mike, The Miami Dolphins have won the last three matchups with the Patriots in Miami.In those games Tom Brady did the following;2015 – 12/21 (57%) 134yds 0 TD 0 Int2014 – 29/56 (51.7%) 249yds 1 TD 0 Int2013 – 34/55 (61.8%) 364yds 2 TD 1 IntWhich Tom Brady (who is just 50% in games played in Miami in his career) do you think will show up for this weeks game?How realistic a shot do you think the Dolphins have of pulling off a win this weekend?Will we get to see a Suh/Wake sandwich similar to the Bryce Petty sandwich we saw in the Jet’s game in NY this year?GO DOLPHINS!!!! ROCKPHIN

I don’t expect his stat line to really match any of those. I’m pretty sure Brady will only play the 1st half, and possibly even less. He won’t be throwing the ball all that much, and why should he? LeGarrette Blount, James White, Dion Lewis and probably any other RB on the game day roster will probably be trying to take advantage of our porous rush defense. Brady will carve us up a little taking what the LB’s give (which is too much), but he’s not going to have a gaudy stat line. My guess is Brady will be something like 10-12, 105 yards and 1 TD 0 INT’s. No way will there be a sandwich, because every throw he makes will be within 2 seconds, and neither of our guys will get there that quickly, they will be held, I mean blocked.

Now, as far as whether we can win or not, that depends on how close we can keep it in the 1st half against their starters. I would think some of our starters may play nearly an entire game, especially the secondary guys, not sure if we will have enough bodies to pull everyone. I would like to win, but more than anything, I want to not look like we were just going through the motions, and even more importantly, I want everyone to be healthy. I won’t be surprised if we lose by about 5, something like 28-23.
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from Wyo

Q – So How Bout them Dolphins!!!!!!!!!!I need them to have the #5 Seed to go to the Game in Houston!Rhino too!What do you think the odds are?

Don’t kill the messenger! Sorry Wyo, I don’t think it’s going to happen on a couple of fronts. First off, I don’t think the Chiefs are going to lose against San Diego. I also won’t be surprised if we come short against NE at home. I think it will be close, less than a TD, but I think the Patriots will win this one.

Now, regarding said Dolphins, they have given us much more than we expected, especially after starting out 1-4. What an amazing turnaround. It’s shocking really, and I’m not sure it has fully sunk in that we are a 10 win, possibly 11 win team that will be a worthy participant in the 2016 NFL Playoffs. WOW! I do hope I’m wrong on both counts, but I don’t think the Chargers can beat the Chiefs, especially if Melvin Gordon is held out due to injury. Also, maybe the Dolphins under Adam Gase don’t like losing, and find a way to beat the Patriots. I’m expecting the 2nd half to have a pretty different cast of characters for both teams, but maybe Gase wants to keep the good mojo going, and doesn’t quite subscribe to that. I think there may actually be something to that, and I won’t be surprised if that happens. Also, keep in mind the Patriots do not have home field sewn up yet as the Raiders could still get it if they win and the Patriots lose. I believe the Raiders would win a tiebreaker against common opponents, even though their records would be identical at 13-3 and conference records as well at 10-2
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from Ken

Q – Dr Mike will Tannehill play in the playoffs?

I’m going to stick with my original prediction made right after it happened, which was we will see Tannehill playing for us again this season. As of this writing, Tannehill is on a day-to-day basis, which is obviously better than a week-to-week basis. He’s not practicing as of yet, so there is no question that he will not play this week. I’m optimistic about him, I just think there’s some magic left for him. I think Tanny will begin practice next week, and will at least be in the conversation as to whether he plays or not. I think it’s possible that Moore still starts, but I won’t be surprised at all if Tannehill is active and is the 2nd QB for our playoff game. If Tanny is healthy enough to play, but isn’t as sharp as Moore, then I think the smart thing to do is stick with Moore, but it would be great to have Tanny available to go to rather than TJ Yates. Now, I hope Moore is good enough to get us through, because I wouldn’t want to rush Tanny back into action, but if we win, I really do believe that Tannehill will be ready for the next game, and then our young HC may have a tough decision on his hands in such a young career, but if Tanny is really ready, I think he’ll call on #17 to take us the rest of the way! I was right that he wasn’t done for the year, and I think I’m going to be right that he plays again for us. I hope it’s all for the good!
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from OD

Q – MIKE: WHAT, in your opinion, is the #1 thing the Dolphins have to do to find success in the playoffs?

Regardless of who our QB is in the playoffs, we have to maintain a strong rushing attack. It’s not all on Ajayi either, we need the 5 guys up front to impose their will on the defense, and give Ajayi some creases to run through. He doesn’t even need a huge hole, because he runs so hard, a little contact isn’t bringing him down 9 out of 10 times. He just needs to enough room to get a little momentum going, and then he’s super dangerous. Once he’s through the line, he’s so hard to bring down. Most of his short runs are where he’s met at, or even behind the L.O.S., which understandably leads to busted run. Now this requires a healthy front 5, and a healthy Ajayi, as well as help from Drake and Williams. Add in TE’s Dion Sims and MarQueis Gray, as well as extra OL Sam Young. We need their blocking too.

Whether it’s Moore or Tannehill, they need to hit some big plays, and not turn the ball over. We’re doing very well staying ahead in the turnover battle, and I believe we need to continue in that fashion. On defense, and ST’s keep making that 1 or 2 big plays that change the game. I don’t think we’re good enough on offense or defense to have either unit completely break down.

I suspect we’ll still struggle some on defense against a strong running attack, and against a precision passing attack, but if we limit scoring as we have (bent but don’t break), we can win. I’m going to figure we’re going to be at Pittsburgh to face the Steelers at Heinz Field. Now normally, I’d say the Steelers would have a huge advantage in the cold, but i think our team can thrive in it as well. Of course, they’ll have their home crowd, but I think the climate won’t be a disadvantage to us as it may have been in the past.The way we play now, relying on our run game, we can take that anywhere (except maybe a really muddy field at the old OB) (Ask Freeman McNeil!!!) 🙂

“I don’t expect his stat line to really match any of those. I’m pretty sure Brady will only play the 1st half, and possibly even less. ”
*
Home field advantage will be on the line for them. You don’t think he will play more that that? I think we see him play most of the game, if not all of it. Additionally, the may not want to risk Garappolo’s draft stock with him having a poor performance (he did shred us earlier this season though)- It’s sky high right now.

I do think he’ll play a half. I think BB thinks he can win with any QB, so I do think they pull Brady after the 1st half. I know that kind of contradicts itself, but I think BB would like to go into the playoffs with a healthy Tom Brady.

My friend may have the best job in the world, seriously. He works for a hedge fund, and he and his friend from Goldman Sachs, work together in the coolest office with a pinball machine, flat screen TV’s, and no pressure. Besides that, the owner of the hedge fund is a great guy, and really treats them well, and also happens to be a huge Steelers fan. he has a box at Heinz, and has taken Scott for a few years to a game. Can’t say for sure if he’ll take him to a playoff game, but I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s the case.

Nice write up BTW Mike. I agree we will not do well against a strong run team (we aren’t going to all of the sudden develop into a stout run D in the playoffs), and need to keep the J-Train rolling. We can’t be forced into a situation where the opposing D can just pin their ears back and come after the QB.

If I were Belicheat I wouldn’t play Bray at all after watching that Bryce Petty clip

Seriously though – the cheats really don’t have so much to gain by playing for home field advantage

if Oakland wins in faunal week (big if) then the patriots need to win for home field advatantGeadvantage but the only game out of foxboro for them with the #2 seed is the afc champiion ship at Oakland, assuming Oakland makes it that far without Carr,

Garropolo ate us alive in the 1st matchup

And we are like the walking wounded they are playing a team at 100%

I think Mike may be right
Frankly in surprised Brady is playing at all

I agree, and I’m sure we will. I don’t think they’re going to play him if he’s not able to do what he can do. I don’t think they’ll leave him as a sitting duck. He has to be at least 85%, or just let Moore play

On the TD pass that Howard got burnt on, it looked like we were playing a short zone, not expecting Taylor to throw over the top. Sure enough, Watkins blasted downfield, and Taylor made a great throw. Howard wasn’t going to stop that even if it was just a decent throw, he was caught with his pants down. It happens. I’ll take Howard starting on my team any day.

Ken says:
December 29, 2016 at 12:52 pm
He gave up a TD pass but his coverage was good it was just good throw. Most of our coverage issues last week was exploiting the safeties in the cover 2 scheme we were running

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He essentially gave up one to Clay also (he was on the coverage). There were multiple times I saw him getting burnt like toast. I don’t have the game to watch it all again though.

I look at highlight compilations for two reasons. First one is to see the explosive nature of the player. Those are suppose to be their best plays and if they arent really impressive, then it actually makes me less likely to look deeper. The second reason is, on those explosive plays, was their key contribution to him being able to make that happen. I dont expect a player to do everything on his own, but knowing that they can make things happen, when everything isnt perfect, helps oyu know if that player elevates the level of play or if you have to be perfect for you to get the player as advertised.

I actually really critque a highlight compilation, in a more critical way than i do the regular game films, simply because if someone says, this is them at their best, it damn sure better be impressive.

I like Jeremy Sprinkle the best becaue he is solid in every aspect a TE is expected to be good in. I think Hunter Henry was a better prospect, infact i dont know that i have seen a better prospect since Jason Witten, in Hunter Henry. That said Sprinkle to me is like a combination of Antonio Gates and Martellus Bennett.
Reply

D says:
December 29, 2016 at 1:04 pm

Jake Butt is going to be an OK TE between the 20’s but inside the 20’s he is going to really make his money. He is an incredible RZ TE.

BTW dont sleep on Gerald Everett from South Alabam, he is going to be more Charles Clay, or maybe Hernandez (minus the murder), but he is going to a tough dude to effectively cover with a LB. He is a mismatch guy. He probably has to be in the right system for him, and he might be more situation TE than every down guy, but he will be an almost instant contributor i think,/

I dont take my scouting skills seriously, but i do take digging into a prospect enough to feel confidant he is a good potential selection for us seriously. I also like to know about all the players available because it makes me feel better to know the draft can fall however it does and we still can walk away with good selections.

Naples, ii dont really think much of Hodges. If i took the guys you had put in order, id probably have them Sprinkle, Howard, Butt, Legett and then Hodges. I also probably am looking at them i different ways too, as i am looking for all around TE skills set as my criteria and you may be more focused on receiving ability as a primary.

To answer your other question, we have a 3rd IF we get one as a compensatory pick for Vernon, which we should. So our third round pick will probably be pick 33 or 34 of that round. We will also have a 4th IF we get a compensatory pick for that round for Miller. Some argue we would get a 5th not a 4th, but i feel pretty good about us getting a 4th and i think, because of the way that they structured the trade, our FO feels confidant in that as well. If we do get a compensatory 4th, then we keep our regular 4th round selection and only give up the compensatory 4th. If we dont, we lose our 4th round selection as part of the trade.

However, if there is a high quality nickelback (DB to cover the slot) then I might be persuaded to get some competition for McCain. I think he is still developing though, so I am not ready to give up Bobby.

Watkins made an All-Pro type catch on the TD. Our DB was in good coverage position.
On the one where Rambo appeared to be late getting over, or that Howard turned him loose too early, I do think those two players have had limited time on the field together, esp. in that form of Cover 2 we were in, and that might have been the first time they ever saw that and just did not have the communication in place to adjust to that at NFL game day speed.
Rambo needed to tell X that there was another WR ready to go deep in the middle and that X should not release his man prematurely. Or X needed to notice that. Neither took care of it.

tru dat and a bunch of their skills positions are limping too. Even if they play, they might not be as quick or shifty. This also might influence Belicheat to rest some of them or restrain the usage of say a Dion Lewis or Amendola who both always get nicked up.

There are still a few DEs and LBs and TEs who I have seen mentioned on here who have not actually declared for the draft yet. They might not be available, although the intel on this board is primo, so you guys probably know more than Walter football and certainly more than ESPN.

I agree with y’all about LadyBoy, but this year I think it is more real, as the man is getting older and older and some day (SOON) he is going to start showing his age. Plus he has gotten beaten up more the last two years than in the past due to OL problems.

Glad to see Kiko not on the injury list.
Was scared we would be without all 3 starting LBs and 3 out of 4 starting DBs.
On offense we are without our starting RB, QB, TE, and C.
That is 9 starters out, 10 ( 45% of the team) if you are including Mario Williams.
(from those who began the year on the first 22)

See that’s the problem. Hulk is immune to illnesses. Dr. Banner? Not so much. The Dolphins need to lose bad to the Pats this week to make the Hulk come out and then Ken’s cold will be cured! (I hope Ken just continues to suffer, sorry buddy)

I saw some plays where they caught us in between zone coverage, but i saw a few times that we had the soft spot because the LB’s, were not getting their reads right pre or post snap and were a couple steps forward in their zone and created that soft spot. Had they stayed back and been at least better post snap in determining it was run or pass, then they could have stopped those receptions. So i kinda agree with you Ken but i also think the LB’s really caused some of those gaps. Our safeties didnt have a spectacular game either for that matter, so between the two of them we gave up some big plays.

Howard did have some blown coverages, bit on double moves, or just got washed out when Watkins kicked it in gear. Watkins does this to a lot of guys, in cluding guys who are suppose to be off man specialist *cough* Grimes *cough*. I said this after the Jets game, he still is learning and he made rookie mistakes both Jets and Bills. The main difference is with the good ability to recover, he was able to get back and get a PD in the jets game and Tyrod Taylor’s throws were more stright line and had zip that Petty’s didnt. He didnt have the chance to recover and make a play on the ball. I think he has shown some really good skills, and he has shown he is a rookie. I think the mistakes he made, are something that will work themselves out, and the positive things i saw are fairly elite level skills that should make him better than average once he figures the rest out.

TE draft class is pretty good this year there should be good quality in the 3rd, and still pretty decent talent 4-5th. Id target a guy in the 2nd-3rd though if you really are wanting a feature weapon at the position. If you want a supplement to your offense, 4th and 4th would net you some solid candidate like Gerald Everett, or Cole Hikutini, or Michael Robetrs. Id be happy with any of these guys.

Probably also sets the tone for Sims re-sign. If negotiations dont go well they can draft an equivalent player in the draft, but maybe they can get that deal done too because it would be nice to have Sims opposite someone like Sprinkle or even that Roberts guy i mentioned just above.

If Jaemis Winston can have 2 rape allegations against him as well as caught stinky handed stealing crab legs and still go number 1 overall im not seeing shopligting from a department store moving Sprinkle down the draft order

I’m not drafting a criminal onto my team, and I hope Gase won’t either. I would hate to have to make excuses for that all the time and never be able to root for Sprinks with a clear conscience.

I would hate it if Winston was my team’s QB, although the truth is that that particular Publix is known for allowing Seminole players liberties with complimentary snacks. There were several hidden issues in that case that i know about.

PS: In Tunsil’s case, I have no problem whatsoever with a guy smoking weed. That is not a crime. But stealing is.

I confess I haven’t read a single comment from this ask Mike, but I did read the article (nicely done Miguel)

That said, I think it deserves some contemplation at least, that San Diego is playing it’s last game at Qualcom (at least it’s players view it that way) and that team DOES have talent. KC is no juggernaut, and I don’t think the 5 seed is as out of reach as our venerable article writer does. 😛

yes, I was being facetious but they lost Allen, Woodhead and T’eo for the season early on and they’re missing other contributors as well. Kenneth Farrow was the 4th rb to go on I/R this season and the total # of players on I/R is 17 including Caraun Reid, Jeremiah Attachou, Brandon Oliver & Dexter McCluster & Jason Verrett is out and expected to have knee surgery and will probably go on I/R and Perryman is doubtful for this next game.
they are a talented team but they’ve got way too many injuries to take this next game

Gotta say, after all we’ve seen this season, starting 1-4 and making the playoffs, countless improbably comebacks, sustaining injury after injury, and yet some of you can be 100% certain about the outcome of a game involving two teams you don’t really even follow. LOL…

Ok, now I’ve read a couple responses, and I also want to point out that the damage done to our defenses vs. buffalo (and several other teams this season) came almost exclusively on the flats. Crossing patterns isn’t the magic elixir vs. this defense, it’s using the entire horizontal stretch of the field against LBs who can’t quite get to the edge when the ball moves that way.

If Melvin Gordon sits, which may be the case, it’s going to be hard for the Chargers to beat the Chiefs. It also looks like 2 of their starting OL may be out, King Dunlap and Orlando Franklin. Doesn’t mean they can’t win, but I’d pick KC in that one.

He is not practicing, Gase said it himself today…
Just keep his arm loose.
At this point I am not expecting Tanny to come back at all, even if we get past Pittsburgh.
He said they dont want to risk his career or even having him back next season.
DONT DO IT!
WE’RE GOOD!

Mike,
Gordon is 3 yards shy of 1000 playing his last game in SD. He may take a single hand off and sit, but I doubt it. He’ll play. Betcha.

Gates is a single TD shy of tying Gonzales on the all time TE list. He’s played his whole career in SD, he’s gonna want to win.

Rivers is still Rivers. We’ll see about the OL issues.

I admit you could be right, and I wouldn’t even BET on the Chargers, but all I said was I’m not so convinced we can’t get the 5th seed. Many others have actually advocated giving up on that possibility. I’m not, I think anything can, and has happened this season.

MIKE E: More excellent work, as usual. Thanks for answering my question in a thoughtful manner. One problem we avoided vs. Beefalo was killer penalties. We can NOT commit 10+ penalties and expect to win close games.

But, against New England, that WON’T be a problem.
WE ARE GOING TO CRUSH THE CHEATS 42-13!!

Lets continue our Hurt the QB every week strategy this week. Even if we dont win we can set ourselves up by taking that little bitch down .. would LOVE to be #5 seed , id even let Moore have that game against Houston then bring in RT IF HEALTHY for round 2

I saw a comment that though might be seen as insensitive to some probably would have been laughed at by Carrie Fisher herself, but if you know the always tongue and cheek way Carrie always described her mother as always upstaging her or stealing the limelight. It looks now that Debbie Reynolds actually got thee ultimate and final upstage

Btw the Arkansas QB is the brother of last year’s starter, a guy a few of us here were interested as a possible backup draftee. He does have better arm strength but his brother was a better passer. Better accuracy, timing and seemed to read the defense better. The younger brother might improve in those areas but as a here and now comparison, I think we are better off with Doughty

The Miami Dolphins have won every game this year where Jay Ajayi has had 16 or more carries. POUND THE BALL GASE! Run it, run it again, and then run it some more. When they are set up to try and stop the run hit them with the deep play action…..then run it some more!

Stoked I could win a few over to the side of hopefulness if nothing else (SD vs. KC). To those I couldn’t convince, I admit it’s a longshot, I just think it’s reasonably possible, and yeah, I want Wyo and Rhino to get to represent!

Mike E…Brewery is great. I took 3 days off last week going into Christmas, which by definition means I’m slammed the week before I leave and the week I get back. Good problem to have though. I tell our customers, you keep drinking it, I’ll keep making it! I’m having a lot of fun with this. Balancing the family/work life is the hardest part. My 2017 resolution is to schedule make more family time!

This explains why the Patriots have the #1 defense in the league this season. (scoring)

The Patriot’s numbers on defense thjs season are outstanding. The group ranks first in points allowed and eighth in yards. The unit has also benefited from playing a lot of offensively challenged opponents. They’ve played against the 32nd, 31st, 29th, 28th, 27th, 25th and 22nd rated offenses, in some cases twice. Only Pittsburgh and Arizona rank in the top 10 and the Steelers were without Ben Roethlisberger when the Patriots faced them. So the Patriots defense has done a great job against a lot of bad offenses

@ Steveccnv….
It’s really expensive to open a brewery in Santa Barbara (as you can guess) so the monetary benefit is a delayed gratification thing. I took a pretty good pay cut to come do this, but I do get a paycheck and I can at least pay the bills.

I see the hours as an investment in the value of the business, and my ownership stake as the (eventual, hopefully) monetary reward that is yet to come.

I’m right there with ya with the sickness. Get well soon brothah. I’ve been very lucky to be extremely healthy all year, so 2016 is taking one more shot at me I guess.
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Feel better Jahn!

Funny, it’s the same for me, I’ve been good all year, and now this is dragging on me for a week plus. It could certainly be worse, so I’ll deal with it. Happy New Year and all the best to you and your family

I always wondered about his role because they always list different guys as lead guitarist like Randall and Carlto among others but when you see them live it’s him playing everything and the lead works his way in.

Son, Becker is a writer with Fagan, he plays rhythm guitar and bass with Fagan on keys and vocals. They would hire studio guitar soloists, drummers, vocalists etc. Think of Becker as the “John Paul Jones” of Steely Dan. Their albums were very studio driven with complex arrangements. They’re not the most dynamic personalities on stage even though Fagan is kind of funny. He reminds me of Mel Brooks in a way. LOL

My approach for this game would be anyone who can play without struggle plays and that’s it. Anyone who should have a week off should get a week off as this game does matter that much to us, we’re on the road regardless. It means more to the Pats for #1 overall.. But that doesn’t mean lie down. That’s not a good way to head into the postseason.

Every time I am sitting in the garage on Saturdays blasting my music and I put on my Best of Steely Dan album I turn it off after about 4 or 5 songs and say this is lame…
Back in the 70’s I dig the hell out of them but now I cant waste my only day mellowing out to them.
Got me some Foghat lined up for tomorrow
Bodisahtva 🙂

The Chargers have plenty to be motivated by. Last game in SD. last year against us it was supposed to be their last game in SD. I went to the game, it was a madhouse, Chargers played out of their minds. If the players like a coach, they’ll give it their all, but not sure how they feel about him.

I remember New Years Eve when I was young, basically centuries ago, when I was between 16-23, I wanted to do the best thing, whatever that was for New Years. My son is going to a party with his friend and his girlfriend, and he really wants his best friend to go too, but he has a girlfriend, and he decided they’re not going to the party, they’re just going to bang all night. (BTW, SHE told my son’s friend that, I want to bang all night) My son is disappointed, and that cracks me up! It’s so funny to me. 🙂

I met a guy from NE at Walmart today, I guess he was alright… He really wanted to go down to the game but his wife thought it was to much of a trip for the last game of the season. Me and him both knew better that this was still going to be a whale of a game…
Anyway he really likes MM and our chances

I suppose he could not upset me. He said nothing about how great the Patriots are. Just a couple of praises about what the FINS are doing. He must know that there time is about to expire.
I do think I caught an evil eye though on the way down from the coffee creamer so I gave him one back!

I’d like nothing better than for us to beat NE and SD to win tomorrow but when it comes to SD and trying to overcome the number of injuries they have on their team it’s not going to happen.
Add to the fact they don’t have the coaching we have and it’s a done deal. If they had coaches like the Phins they’ve have a fighting chance but they don’t.

BOTH THE BIG TEN AND THE PAC-12 failed miserably in today’s semi-finals. ADD Michigan’s loss to Florida State in the Orange Bowl and you come up with one word for that conference – – “OVER RATED.” Now I know some Penn Staters will say they should have been in the Final 4.–My response is “any team that loses by about 40 points to Michigan DOESN’T BELONG IN THE FINAL 4!!!”

Tomorrows’ Rose Bowl pits a Southern Cal team that lost by about 50 points to ALABAMA versus a Penn State team that lost by about 40 points to Michigan. Pardon me if I YAWN!!! – – CLEARLY, the two best teams are, for the second year in a row, ALABAMA and CLEMSON. –And the PAC-12, BIG 10 and the BIG-12 still have a ways to go to catch up with the SEC and the ACC.
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JAHNDOH; I believe YOU are the first poster I saw who mentioned the Dolphins and the upcoming Super Bowl in the same post!! Like you, I WANT TO BELIEVE that we DO have a shot! (The LAS VEGAS odds on Miami winning the Super Bowl were 80-1 yesterday!!) NO DOUBT Rodney Harrison and virtually all the so-called “experts” would fall down laughing at the very thought of Miami lifting the Lombardi Trophy in early February!! But if the Fins WIN their wild card round game, and Tannehill becomes available in the second round, I wonder how many of these same guys will be laughing then?? If Tanny and Maxwell are a “GO” for the second round, we DO have a shot against anyone.

BUT as GASE might say, “Let’s focus on the New England game and ONLY the New England game THIS WEEK!” It has worked so far! GOOO-O-O FINS!!