Q-polls in CT, OH show gubernatorial toss-ups, wide Senate margins

posted at 2:07 pm on November 1, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

I was struck by the similarity between Ohio and Connecticut in this morning’s releases from Quinnipiac for the midterm elections, among other results. In both states, the gubernatorial races have come down to virtual dead heats, with the Republican nominees edging their Democratic counterparts in each. Meanwhile, the Senate races seem all but decided, with the parties splitting the pair.

First, let’s look at Ohio:

The race for Ohio governor is a dead heat with Republican John Kasich getting 47 percent of likely voters to 46 percent for Democratic incumbent Gov. Ted Strickland, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

In the U.S. Senate race, Republican Rob Portman has an insurmountable 56 – 37 percent lead over Democratic Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University survey, conducted by live interviewers, finds.

Strickland, who had trailed by double digits earlier in the fall campaign, is leading among Democrats 90 – 6 percent, but Kasich is ahead among Republicans 83 – 10 percent and independent voters 57 – 36 percent in the survey completed Saturday of those who say they are likely to vote or have already cast their ballots.

Critical to the outcome are the 6 percent of likely voters who remain undecided and another 5 percent who have selected a candidate but say they could change their mind.

It seems a little odd that Portman could sail to a 19-point lead in an open seat while Strickland gets this close in defending his incumbency. The draw from a close gubernatorial race should be seen in the Senate race regardless of the nature of the candidates involved. Are we to imagine that Democrats turning out for Strickland just won’t cast a vote for Fisher, or will back the incumbent Strickland despite his failures while backing Portman for an open Senate seat? I’d either guess that the Senate race is actually closer, or that the turnout model that supports the virtual-tie final poll is a little too generous for Democrats.

The reverse is true in the Nutmeg State, where the Senate race shows the Republican nominee for the Senate nine points back but the GOP nominee for governor three points up:

In the Connecticut U.S. Senate race, Republican Linda McMahon has narrowed the gap slightly in the last week but still trails State Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, the Democrat, 53 – 44 percent among likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 54 – 42 percent Blumenthal lead in an October 26 likely voter survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll.

The governor’s race is now too close to call, with 48 percent of likely voters for Republican Tom Foley and 45 percent for Democrat Dan Malloy, compared to a small 48 – 43 percent Malloy lead October 26.

In today’s Senate survey, Blumenthal leads 93 -6 percent among Democrats while McMahon is ahead 87 – 13 percent among Republicans. Independent voters, who went 56 – 40 percent for Blumenthal last week, now tip 49 – 44 percent for McMahon. Only 3 percent are undecided and 5 percent of voters who name a candidate say they could change their mind.

In an e-mail blast this morning, McMahon’s camp points out that the polling took place “last week,” although Quinnipiac conducted the interviews from 10/25 to yesterday, according to their report. Still, the sudden shift in polling among independents also raises questions about the accuracy of the outcome. That is a 21-point shift in the gap in a week, and their earlier interviews may have missed at least part of the effect. If McMahon is riding a wave among independents, that may well bring her much closer to Blumenthal than the Q-poll suggests. The support for Foley may not be as indicative in the Senate race as the support for Portman is in Ohio’s gubernatorial race, however, as Connecticut voters tend to elect Republicans to the office while sending Democrats to Congress.

McMahon is still a long shot in a tough state for Republicans to win, but don’t be surprised if this comes in closer than people think. A bigger wave may just float McMahon to the top and sink Blumenthal.

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What happen to Kasich? Thought he was cruising to victory a couple weeks ago.

Portman is kind of like a teflon candidate. He was a very good congressmen who preceded Jean Schmidt in a district that encompasses much of Cincinati going eastward. None of the George Bush associations seem to matter. Beyond that, Lee Fisher is a POS candidate.

In the gubernatorial race, however, Strickland got the NRA endorsement and the Chamber of Commerce endorsement (go figure). More important, Strickland has little positive to say except for some Mickey Mouse accomplishments. But he’s been drilling Kasich about being part of Lehman Brothers. He has one or two ads that make Kasich look like a douchebag. In one ad, they have Kasich recently saying that he worked for Lehman in a two-man office in Columbus, Ohio, so he really didn’t work on Wall Street. Then, then have clips of him on TV interviews in which he claims he works on Wall Street. Then, in a separate ad or the same ad, it makes the claim that Kasich somehow “forced” the Ohio pension system to invest in Lehman “so that while John Kasich got rich, Ohio seniors suffered when Lehman failed.” Then, there’s a second ad that plays on an idea Kasich has to create a business-community think-tank, which Strickland is casting as some kind of star chamber business cabal. Frankly, I don’t know whether these people are to be compensated or not, but Strickland has what I think are totally unrelated clips of Kasich talking about paying bonuses, and the ad seems to suggest that Kasich is going to be paying the members of this business cabal secret bonuses.

Sadly, Kasich is doing little to oppose the negative ads, and I think it’s hurting him. I’m very disappointed in him.

My local paper (The Toledo Blade) came out with their Strickland endorsement on the front page of yesterdays paper. I read what I could stomach of it, but it was pretty nauseating, click here to see for yourself.

Blue collar is a good way to describe the Toledo area, and unfortunately the class warfare system still works rather well. Kasich being a “former Wall St” person has been plastered all over the local airwaves. I am actually starting to think it’s working.

The difference between the two is the governor race has an incumbent to run, the Senate is Fischer and Portman, both new. I can’t turn on my TV without seeing a Portman ad, I don’t think I’ve gotten much info at all about Fischer.

I heard from a big time Conservative who said though he really likes Kasich, he is OK with Strickland winning. That is why it is still close. Ads have hammered Kasich on his Wallstreet ties. Strickland on job loses when he said to hold him accountable 4 years ago.

I live in Columbus, OH and I can easily believe the polls are correct. Lee Fisher is a hack that perennially runs for statewide office and always loses, he is not a good candidate for the dems against Portman. Strickland, on the other hand, has run a very good campaign while Kasich’s campaign has left something to be desired (I’m voting for Kasich, I’m just calling it the way I see it). Also compared to the governor that Strickland replaced, Bob Taft, Strickland doesn’t seem as bad. I still think Kasich is going to pull it off, but I also know a lot of people who are splitting their tickets in this case.

It seems a little odd that Portman could sail to a 19-point lead in an open seat while Strickland gets this close in defending his incumbency.

Ed, it’s more likely that Strickland has a better record on gun rights than Kaisich. Ted got the NRA endorsement, and CCW got expanded under him. Still, I don’t see any momentum to cut back on gun rights in the Ohio Legislature, the budget fight is going to be ugly next year so I’m putting gun rights further down on the list this election cycle, especially after Heller.

I’m in a position to make a couple of (small) last minute dontations. Already gave to Bielat and Patrick Murray (running against Moran in VA). Looking for some suggestions on where I could put a few dollars, someone in a close race, etc., and not one of the big names this cycle, Angle, Reid, O’Donnell, etc., or anyone who’s got plenty of resources already, Whitman, Fiorina, McMahon, etc.

I personally would like to see McMahon win strictly because Blumenthal is such a bucket of scum, it boggles the mind that the people of Connecticut would be that gullible as to send that assclown to the Senate.

On the other hand, the idiots who roam the hills of Vermont keep sending Leaky Leahy back into office over and over again, which again boggles the mind as to why they keep doing so!

McMahon is still a long shot in a tough state for Republicans to win, but don’t be surprised if this comes in closer than people think. A bigger wave may just float McMahon to the top and sink Blumenthal.

I think both the Senate and the CT-4 races are much, much closer than the polls indicate. Why else would the Dems waste time and money with all the last-minute campaigning (by the President, no less!) in CT this weekend if it’s supposedly a foregone conclusion that those races are in the bag for them?

Brad Zaun 3rd CD Iowa, he is running against Bosswell a true progressive. Zaun has it to a toss up.

I’m in a position to make a couple of (small) last minute dontations. Already gave to Bielat and Patrick Murray (running against Moran in VA). Looking for some suggestions on where I could put a few dollars, someone in a close race, etc., and not one of the big names this cycle, Angle, Reid, O’Donnell, etc., or anyone who’s got plenty of resources already, Whitman, Fiorina, McMahon, etc.

The telling figure in the CT senate poll is the key: The state of Connecticut has more registered independents than registered Dems or GOP.

If the indies are breaking for Linda Mac at the 11th hour and Dem turnout is low (don’t see ANY Bloomers signs, see an awful lot of Linda signs though which could be a strong indicator of enthusiasm) CT could very well end up a mini Red Storm.

I had a feeling ObamaCare’s 20% rate hike was going to end up nad punching Dem candidates as an “unintended blowback October Surprise and now I think I see some daylight.

CT-4 and CT-5 are already going back to the GOP column, but Brickley was closer than any GOP challenger to Larsen in CT-1 has ever been as long as I can remember (and that’s a long time) and CT-2 is a tricky district to poll.

If we can win the turnout battle, we can pick off everything except CT-3, aka “The S***hole”, a district that’s really beyond saving with that big fat sanctuary city of New Haven as it’s major population center.

1. Kasich is not a good candidate – and comes off as sort of an elitist. He’s also been part of the banking industry which still doesn’t sit well with a lot of people (even though many of the attack ads remove the context of his statements).

2. The previous governor – Republican Bob Taft, was one of the worst governers to ever grace the state (made Dick Celeste look like a conservative). A big (unbelievable) spending social conservative, basically – who was incapable of resolving any state issue. Keep in mind he is from the same bloodline as the President who got stuck in the bathtub, and had the press come in to take pictures. The dems could have put a small farm animal up and won the governorship – despite the fact that Ken Blackwell was a good candidate (he was part of the administration, but opposed Taft on a lot of issues).

Kasich has not run a good campaign. Strickland has been hammering and hammering Kasich in ads for months, with little response from Kasich. If Kasich wins, it will be in spite of his campaign, rather than because of it. If there wasn’t such a big Republican wave going on, he would be in deep trouble right now.

And one more note – there was a huge scandal revolving around Republicans and a scam run by a local (Toledo) Republican coin dealer. This was also responsible for sweeping dems into many more offices that election cycle than the reps.

I’m in a position to make a couple of (small) last minute dontations. Already gave to Bielat and Patrick Murray (running against Moran in VA). Looking for some suggestions on where I could put a few dollars, someone in a close race, etc., and not one of the big names this cycle, Angle, Reid, O’Donnell, etc., or anyone who’s got plenty of resources already, Whitman, Fiorina, McMahon, etc.

Thanks for any help!

Bennett on November 1, 2010 at 2:37 PM

Charlotte Bergmann (TN district 9) is a tea party conservative running against Steve Cohen (who compared the tea party to the KKK). She is a great candidate to support IMO. She has had very little help from the republican party, as she is running in a dem district. But, she has been campaigning hard, and is really making a run of it. She needs all the support from us she can get. I would love for anyone who has a few dollars they can afford to spend to donate to this conservative lady.

And one more note – there was a huge scandal revolving around Republicans and a scam run by a local (Toledo) Republican coin dealer. This was also responsible for sweeping dems into many more offices that election cycle than the reps.

cktheman on November 1, 2010 at 3:04 PM

Tom Noe. The Lucas County Republican Party has been singularly inept and basically irrelevant.

Don’t forget that there’s also a lot more antipathy here in Ohio toward Portman’s opponent, Lee Fisher than there nececessarily is toward Strickland, although Strickland is certainly just as deserving of it as Fisher. Add to that the fact that the Fisher campaign had about zero bucks — apparently not even the Dems were too excited about him — and it’s wipeout time for Mr. Fisher.

Tom Noe. The Lucas County Republican Party has been singularly inept and basically irrelevant

Irrelevent and sad.

Sadly, I think Kaptur wins again as well (at least Ed Emery is out of the picture this time, and there is a real candidate). No one seems to learn their lesson in N. Ohio. Although I do give Toledo some credit for electing Mike Bell – he’s perhaps the most moderate guy we have had in, well, forever.

John Kasich’s status as an anti-gun RINO is the biggest reason he isn’t running away with the election.
The Ohio Republicna Party has taken to sending out blatantly misleading mailers daily this past week trying to run from his record.

If the whole country turn red tomorrow and John Kasich misses the boat, that will indeed be justice.

The Ohio Republicna Party has taken to sending out blatantly misleading mailers daily this past week trying to run from his record.

If the whole country turn red tomorrow and John Kasich misses the boat, that will indeed be justice.

Chuck on November 1, 2010 at 6:45 PM

Uh the NRA presently has Kasich rated a “B”

Also note: per the Dayton Daily news:
The NRA has given Auditor Mary Taylor, Kasich’s running mate, an “A” and has given Yvette McGee Brown, Strickland’s running mate, a “F” rating.

“I am strongly for the Second Amendment. People have the right to keep and bear arms. I’m a weapons owner myself. I own a hand gun and the bottom line is everyone should be relaxed on the second amendment – I am not interested in eroding it. I think the vote I cast in 1994 did not make things better at all and I don’t want to be passing laws that clutter up the books and get in the way of people’s having their rights.”

- John Kasich on the Mike Trivisonno Show, WTAM 1100, 9/30/2010

Ted Strickland was preparing again to run for Congress he said, “I personally do not like guns and do not own a gun.” [Dayton Daily News, “Ted Strickland a Gun Guy?,” May 17, 2006.]

As a member of Congress John received three “A” level ratings, was endorsed by the NRA three times, and received campaign contributions from the NRA six times. This year John Kasich received a “B” level rating from the NRA, while running mate Mary Taylor received an “A”. Like John, Mary and her family are gun owners and she enjoys trap shooting.- ConservativeCulture.com