Big breaks for Republicans, but road to Senate still steep

Tom Harkin’s Saturday retirement announcement is the latest early break for Republicans in their long-shot bid to seize control of the Senate in 2014.

The move puts Iowa in play and comes on the heels of Democratic Sen. Jay Rockefeller’s retirement in West Virginia, which gave Republicans a likely pickup. Another potential Democratic retirement in a red state looms in South Dakota, where Sen. Tim Johnson is expected to decide soon whether to pursue a third term. And in Massachusetts, a new poll shows Republican Scott Brown — who’s mulling whether to run for Senate this year or governor in 2014 — up by double digits in a potential race for the seat of Democrat John Kerry, who will likely be confirmed as secretary of state.

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Democrats warn it’s way too early to start predicting 2014 outcomes, pointing to early forecasts that 2012 would be a banner year for Republicans. Their unexpectedly heavy losses in November mean Republicans essentially would have to run the table next year to win the majority. But exits by Rockefeller and Harkin — and potentially Johnson — brighten what’s already a favorable outlook for Senate Republicans in the midterms.

“These cycles are long, but clearly, it’s been a good couple weeks,” said former National Republican Senatorial Committee Executive Director Rob Jesmer, who just joined FP1 Strategies. “It’s good for the NRSC, especially after a disappointing election. This will help with fundraising and jump-start some enthusiasm that would have taken more time otherwise.”

“An open seat is an open seat. It’s really hard to beat incumbents, so when you get an open seat, it automatically vaults a seat up to a level that’s more competitive than it would have been otherwise,” he added. “Iowa was not on the map 48 hours ago, and now it’s on the map. And that’s a big deal.”

Democratic strategists highlight their incumbents who appear likely to run again in red states where retirements could have proved devastating, including Max Baucus of Montana, Mark Pryor of Arkansas, Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, Mark Begich of Alaska and Kay Hagan of North Carolina.

In the past decade, only three Democratic incumbents have lost reelection: Tom Daschle of South Dakota in 2004, along with Russ Feingold of Wisconsin and Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas in 2010.

The majority party continues to be in a strong position. Republicans need to gain six seats and the developments in the past few weeks would not get them there. Even if Brown were to run in and win a special election this year, he would be on the ballot again next year.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) and other party leaders are encouraging senators who are going to retire to do so early in the cycle.

“If retirements are going to happen at all, it’s helpful for them to happen early,” said J.B. Poersch, the former executive director of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and an adviser to the Senate-focused outside group Majority PAC. “There’s plenty of time to respond. So we can find good candidates.”