Alex models finding their target?

8:30 p.m. UPDATE: Alex is nearly stationary tonight, and little changed in intensity. This evening’s models are continuing to suggest the storm will be on the order of a category 1 hurricane at landfall just south of, or at the Texas-Mexico border.

I’ll have a full update in the morning.

strong>4:30 p.m. UPDATE: As suggested below, the models have come into better agreement this afternoon, with the official forecast continuing to target a landfall late Wednesday or early Thursday a bit south of the Texas-Mexico border.

As Alex has not yet intensified beyond a 60-mph tropical storm — and most intensity models do not strengthen it much before landfall — forecasters now expect the storm to make landfall as a category 1 hurricane rather than as something stronger.

However it is definitely worth noting that the models used to predict intensity are not very good, and therefore it’s possible Alex still could come ashore as anything from a tropical storm to something approaching a major hurricane.

I’ll have a short update tonight and a full overview in the morning, including what Houston might expect, if anything, from Alex.

ORIGINAL ENTRY: Some of this afternoon’s model runs are starting to come in and there have been some interesting changes with respect to Tropical Storm Alex, which remains a 60-mph tropical storm as of 1 p.m.

The GFDL model has moved significantly southward, bringing Alex ashore south of the Texas-Mexico border. So has the GFS model, which has jumped south from Corpus Christi to around the border.

This means that a majority of the most important dynamical models are clustering around the Texas-Mexico border. This may mean that northward trend we have been seeing in the models has ended, at least for now.

As a result, after some gradual northward shifts during the last half day, I do not expect much of a change in the hurricane center’s new track forecast (see 10 a.m. forecast) that will come out at 4 p.m. I am most interested to see their discussion of intensity changes, because most of the models still are not predicting that Alex will develop beyond a category 1 hurricane, if it becomes that strong.

If the current forecast holds the greater Houston area should be just far enough north of the storm to miss its significant effects. The National Hurricane Center says much of the area has a 10 percent chance of seeing tropical storm force winds (39 mph or greater) over the next five days.

Our rain chances remain highly dependent upon the storm’s track. For now a good guess might be 1 to 3 inches of rain during the next five days, with more closer to the coast and toward Corpus Christi.

OIL SPILL EFFECTS

I have received a number of questions today about the effect of Alex on the oil spill in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico.

There are a number of really good resources on the web, including the LSU Coastal Studies Institute’s WAVCIS site, which provides real-time information about the impact of waves and surges on the oil spill.

In addition, Oceanweather provides a real-time map showing wave height and wave direction in the Gulf of Mexico. Here’s a map as of noon today.

At this time we can see that the highest waves associated with Alex are about 10 feet high, and that at present waves in the Gulf appear to be bringing oil closer to the northern Gulf coast.

37 Responses

This would be good for the Houston area…some (but not too much) needed rainfall and a bit of respite from the heat for a few days. Not so good for the Valley area, though. Hopefully it will make landfall in the least-populated area possible between Brownsville and Corpus, and as a minimal storm at that.

I have a significant amount of respect for you Eric…you word these hurricane updates perfectly. In the end, these storm predictions are not an exact science and anything can happen before landfall. (Personal opinion…I think Alex will be closer to Corpus or even Freeport possibly…) Keep up the awesome work! Thanks!

Eric-I do not understand why the models have shifted to the south since Alex has continued to trend more to the north than they predicted. Do they now think a strong ridge of high pressure is going to form in the northen gulf and push the storm to the west? What happened to the low pressure system in west texas?

All the talk about which model is more accurate and the disproportionate coverage the storm has received (especially given the oil situation) made me think of a line from an episode of “Family Guy”. To paraphrase:

Will Alex find his way to Houston? Meteorologists say no but our producers say yes.”

XTRP stands for extrapolation, which is an extrapolation of the current movement. It is not a model. CLP5 stands for clipper 5, which is an old model that is used as a benchmark. It is also worth ignoring.

I appreciate the requests for chats, folks. I really do. The fact of the matter is that I’m on “vacation” this week and therefore trying not to work too much. If Alex unexpectedly threatens Houston tomorrow or Wednesday I promise we’ll do a chat.

I love your blog, I’d be slightly annoyed if I were your wife and you’re doing this vs relaxing. Job hazard though, huh? Anyway, my prediction…we’ll barely get any rain. Enjoy the rest of your time off!

Eric-I do not understand why the models have shifted to the south since Alex has continued to trend more to the north than they predicted. Do they now think a strong ridge of high pressure is going to form in the northen gulf and push the storm to the west? What happened to the low pressure system in west texas?

Posted by: joe at June 28, 2010 02:07 PM

Joe,

Yes, the models are shifting because of the ridge. The ridge is what has been forecast to push Alex to the west. The reason it keeps getting pushed more and more is the fact that Alex is moving so slowly. This will allow the ridge push Alex west at a lower latitude than originally though when he was moving a little quicker.

However, there is no telling if the ridge will be as strong as the forecasts predict. Also, with Alex being so large, the ridge may not have as much of an effect as currently forecasted. This remains to be seen.

Whether or not Alex is headed our way, it’s a good time to check your hurricane supplies and replenish if necessary. I stocked up on non-perishable foods and batteries over the weekend. When a storm does come our way, I won’t be among the frantic crowd emptying store shelves in a panic. Just try finding D-cell batteries when a storm is in the Gulf!

“Anyway, I think my official policy is going to be that there will be a moratorium on Katy jokes any time a storm reaches the Gulf of Mexico and threatens Texas. At that point, I think, they become insensitive. Especially to people who are reading the blog for the first time.”

-Eric

“I currently reside in Katy, and I’m hoping to inquire as to whether or not I should perform an evacuation?”

-TommyP

“Should we evacuate Jacinto City?”

-Jesus

“vacation – smacation. katy’s residents demand your full attention so we know whether or not to hit the road!”

That “moaning” sound you heard this afternoon was the weather-guessers’ disappointment when it was announced that the storm would move into Mexico……..The Fear Mongers are still trying to milk it though by saying, “Anything can happen so don’t let your guard down”.

i live on the coast in deep south Texas. Whether we evacuate or not will be decided, largely, by Mr. Berger’s insight and analysis as presented in this blog. As you are on vacation i would apologize for the inconvenience but Mr. Berger is, under these circumstances, a very important person to a lot of grateful people that you will probably never know.

That makes your Father/Husband large. Actually, XXL.* Ergo, no apology necessary but a note of gratitude is essential. Thanks, for everything.

Hoping your having more fun than we are, wtg, and wishing for a minor storm wherever it may go.

Alex is spinning up pretty good. An eye is forming. My bet is the morning’s review will make it a hurricane. The ridge across Texas may let it slid a lot higher up coast than many think. It could make Cat 1/2 if it slides up the Texas coast and come to land around Matagorda.

Not sure what models your looking at Eric but all of the major models according to the wunderground website have moved too the U.S. side of the border and two of the models have jumped back northward toward Corpus Christi. According to the NHC Advisory the storm is moving due North at 4 mph.

My wife & I, which are senior citizens, live in Bayview along Galveston Bay….We begin preparing for the worst beginning in May of each year….We live in a very high area…..Ike did not affect us with it’s storm surge….It did to our neighbors to the north and south of us……As always we open our doors to those in need as we do not leave…..The key is to be prepared and have generators, not to mention lots of firewood for cooking and young hands with chainsaws…..

I have been through a lot of hurricanes starting with Carla…..It may sound crazy, but it is my way of life……….

Eric, thank you for all the good information. I notice this morning (6/29) that most of the models have the storm making landfall far south, except the LBAR, CLP5, and CLP, which have it coming close to Houston. Any comments about those 3? I know you mentioned yesterday to another commenter that CLP5 can be ignored. Thanks again.

“Houston television reporters will search high and low for a water filled ditch to report the effect from the storm.” Posted by: MeeMax

Yeah! How about Wayne Dolcefino? What a clown. Watching him dance around in a 30 mph breeze in a foot of water with 2 days to go. Just goofy. When Gustav came in I was at the San Luis and they parked 9 satellite trucks on the seawall for 3 days, filming what was basically a tropical storm. They’d pop in and out of the van about every hour. I went surfing. Jessica Willy was the worst with her big shiney lips. She was done with the cut and I walked over to say hi…just being friendly and she rolled her eyes and closed the van door. I was like, what? The cameraman said…”she’s a diva, don’t worry about it.”