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Re: Jonathan Broxton's splits KC/Reds

Interesting question.

Brox was a good closer for KC in April, May and June. Sub-.700 OPS against in all three monts. Good K rate in April and June (8.2, 9.0), fell off in May (3.8). Walked 12 guys in those three months in about 30 innings, too much.

Hardly pitched in July, five outings. In August, allowed an .814 OPS against, but he did change leagues on July 31. I give him a pass for July and August.

Spectacular September. 15 outings, 14 Ks, 1 BB, OPS against was .501.

So we really have a tale of three seasons. First part, a solid but not spectacular closer with KC. Second part, ineffective probably due to lack of use and then a trade to a new league. Third part, in September, excellent numbers as a set up man.

I agree with Doug that Broxton's September K/BB rate is not sustainable. However, I do think he can be a bit better than the solid closer from April, May and June because his walks were unusually high then and he should be healthier with the passage of time from 2011 injury.

My hope is that he is a bit better than the April, May, June 2012 closer for KC, which would be just fine.

Re: Jonathan Broxton's splits KC/Reds

I think it's a combination of the cutter, the velocity going up slightly and simply shaking off the rust. Again, not to beat a dead horse, but the guy was coming off major surgery. It should have been a foregone conclusion that it would take a while to build up his strength and stamina again.

The Royals said repeatedly his velocity was improving early in the season. Scouts were saying the same in July when scouting him. There is one site that shows the velocity improved nearly a couple MPH over the first four months.

"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

Re: Jonathan Broxton's splits KC/Reds

After numerous setbacks recovering from a bone bruise in his right pitching elbow, Broxton had surgery in September to remove two bone spurs and three bone chips in the elbow. He didn't begin throwing again until early January.

Re: Jonathan Broxton's splits KC/Reds

The most important thing to remember is the number 22. That's the total number of innings that can be used to support an argument that Broxton is different, aka better. Truthfully a narrative that he's become meaningfully different is really built upon 13 innings in September.

Also, Broxton's velocity did NOT increase as the season progressed. Based upon pitch f/x data, here are his fastball velocities each month of the season beginning with April: 95.8, 96, 95.6, 96.2, 95.1, 95.2, 96.1. His velocity simply did not increase substantially, and lets be clear several mph would be a boon for a pitcher, over the first four months of the season.

"This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

Re: Jonathan Broxton's splits KC/Reds

Originally Posted by jojo

The most important thing to remember is the number 22. That's the total number of innings that can be used to support an argument that Broxton is different, aka better. Truthfully a narrative that he's become meaningfully different is really built upon 13 innings in September.

Also, Broxton's velocity did NOT increase as the season progressed. Based upon pitch f/x data, here are his fastball velocities each month of the season beginning with April: 95.8, 96, 95.6, 96.2, 95.1, 95.2, 96.1. His velocity simply did not increase substantially, and lets be clear several mph would be a boon for a pitcher, over the first four months of the season.

Interesting. The velocity is a bit less in July and August, Broxton's worst two months.

While his velocity didn't suddenly improve much in September, Brox wasn't a bad closer earlier in the year. With the rust off, with a new pitch, with a good infield defense (ground ball pitcher), if things go right he can be a good closer.

Re: Jonathan Broxton's splits KC/Reds

Originally Posted by jojo

The most important thing to remember is the number 22. That's the total number of innings that can be used to support an argument that Broxton is different, aka better. Truthfully a narrative that he's become meaningfully different is really built upon 13 innings in September.

Also, Broxton's velocity did NOT increase as the season progressed. Based upon pitch f/x data, here are his fastball velocities each month of the season beginning with April: 95.8, 96, 95.6, 96.2, 95.1, 95.2, 96.1. His velocity simply did not increase substantially, and lets be clear several mph would be a boon for a pitcher, over the first four months of the season.

Three years of dominance, then a year of decline, probably the year he pitched with the injury, then the year he had the surgery.....but only 22 innings to project Broxton's likely performance?

Plus, a 95+ fastball is still power pitching, regardless of the number of guys throwing in the 97+ range these days, so it isn't like he is no longer a power pitcher.

I expect an above average reliever out of Broxton. I would consider that to play well in whatever inning he pitches.

Re: Jonathan Broxton's splits KC/Reds

No matter how you slice it, he was throwing the ball close to a couple MPH faster by the end of the season than he was coming out of spring training.

Still, regardless of whether people haggle over velocity, it's probably a bit irrational not to expect him to get stronger coming off a major surgery. And when I say stronger, I don't just mean throwing harder but also having more movement, better control and simply pitch more effectively.

"No matter how good you are, you're going to lose one-third of your games. No matter how bad you are you're going to win one-third of your games. It's the other third that makes the difference." ~Tommy Lasorda

Re: Jonathan Broxton's splits KC/Reds

No matter how you slice it, he was throwing the ball close to a couple MPH faster by the end of the season than he was coming out of spring training.

No matter how you slice it, one can not say Broxton's velocity increased over the season. It was not substantially different in October than it was in April. He actually had three months during that span where his raw average velocity was actually lower than his velocity in April. His velocity did not increase as his season progressed. Its just not a narrative that stands the test of tables of velocity. What one is seeing above is the effect randomness.

If one wants to claim he got stronger and added velocity and thus become more effective by the end of the season then they have to claim his spring training data is completely trustworthy and they also have to argue that he got weaker and lost velocity during significant stretches of the season, one of which being his September, the best 13 innings of his season.

Or one could see the numbers for what they are....essentially similar.

"This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

Re: Jonathan Broxton's splits KC/Reds

Three years of dominance, then a year of decline, probably the year he pitched with the injury, then the year he had the surgery.....but only 22 innings to project Broxton's likely performance?

Plus, a 95+ fastball is still power pitching, regardless of the number of guys throwing in the 97+ range these days, so it isn't like he is no longer a power pitcher.

I expect an above average reliever out of Broxton. I would consider that to play well in whatever inning he pitches.

Where did I argue only 22 innings inform his future performance? I argued otherwise and specifically argued that anyone expecting his performance as a Red going forward only has 22 innings....

"This isnít stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

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