The model had mixed results. The outcomes for
by-elections were sometimes more accurate and sometimes less. It did seem to
correct for those more inaccurate polls related to by-elections. By-election
turnout is often in the 30-40% range. It is easy to imagine how those least
likely to participate are the first to fall off when the electorate shrinks to
such a small size. The handful of citizens willing to answer a poll is likely going
to vote as opposed to those who hang up.

Polls have come out over the last month for all five of
the by-election races in Ontario.

Windsor-Tecumseh looks to be very strong for the NDP. The
federal party had held the seat for decades, but the provincially they have had
little luck. City Councillor Percy Hatfield looks ready to overturn that. A
July 24th poll showed Hatfield leading with 55% of the vote. His
nearest contender is the Progressive Conservative candidate polling at 22%.

In London West, despite the Liberals attracting a star
candidate, Ken Coran, they are in third 17%. The riding appears to be a race
between the ONDP and PCs. The PCs, according to Forum, has the lead with 36% to
the NDP’s 31%. Polls in Ontario have shown considerable strength for the NDP in
southwestern Ontario and this may be the sign of it.

Ottawa South, the seat of former Premier Dalton McGuinty
is at risk of being won by the Conservatives. Forum’s poll showed the PCs
leading the Liberals 48-34 with the NDP at 12%. Grenier is not confident in
Forum’s numbers in this riding.

Scarborough-Guildwood is the only riding Forum showed a
Liberal lead with 38% to the Tories’ 32%. The NDP’s Adam Giambrone mustered 21%
in the poll, disappointing for the star candidate.

Taken all in all it is a bad set of numbers for the
Liberals, but I take them all with a grain of salt. Turnout will be critical
and with a by-election being held in the summer it is impossible to know the
potential outcome. In addition, polling disasters over the past few years
should leave anyone shy of predicting the future on their backs. The PCs are
leading provincially but it hasn’t materialized yet. Perhaps these by-elections
could be a sign of things to come.