"Demography" is the study of human populations, using statistics to describe
conditions of life. Demographers consider a range of information about the
size and density of populations, the ages of their members, and how
populations change. Births, deaths, disease, marriages, divorces,
immigration, economic standing, occupation, race, ethnic and country of
origin all are subjects for the demographer.

The Context

New York City is unique and fascinating demographically. Recently, it has
had large numbers of foreign immigrants arriving, many long-standing
residents leaving, an increase in the gap between the rich and the poor, and
a rise in the black middle class. It is a city of unique ethnic and racial
diversity; it has a large older population. It was the home of many
immigrants during the turn of the 20th Century. It was a destination for
many African Americans from the Southern United States. Many residents of
the City's suburbs fled New York City starting after World War II. In some
areas of the city there is rapid growth fueled by immigrants and their
children. Some areas are undergoing racial and ethnic transition; others
are gentrifying. These trends are important for understanding the Ccty and
its evolution.

The Reporter

Andrew A. Beveridge has taught
sociology at Queens College since 1981. Since 1993 he has done demographic
analyses and consulted for the New York Times. He has provided expert
testimony in districting and redistricting, housing discrimination, and
numerous other civil rights cases in the metropolitan area and elsewhere.
The opinions expressed in Topics are his alone.

(Jan 01) The U.S. Census Bureau released the first results from Census 2000
recently, and the numbers are surprising. Between 1990 and 2000 New York
State appears to have grown by almost one million people. Yet, at the same
time, as a result of these new numbers, the state will lose two congressional
seats: The delegation will have 29 members, the smallest number since 1820.

How could New York have gained so many people and still lost political
representation?

Throughout
the United States, the Census found 6.8 million extra people, putting the
U.S population at 281.4 million people. This was an increase of over 13
percent from 1990. For all the increase in numbers in New York (whose
population as of April 1, 2000 was found to be officially 18,976,457), the
percentage of increase here was actually below the national average. The
Census found a greater percentage in other states. There were 1.3 million
more people in California and over 700,000 in both Texas and Florida. New York has sunk to third most populous state, after California and Texas.

Still, the numbers that the Census Bureau found in New York were far larger
than the estimates the Bureau had made. Comparing its estimate with the
population the Census Bureau actually found, New York State has about 830,000
"extra people."

New Yorkers and others will ask: "Who are these 'extra' 830,000? Where do
they live? Why were they missing until Census 2000?" The answers to these
questions could have effects on the balance of political power in New York
State, as well as on the distribution of federal and state funds.

They also raise questions about the accuracy of the Census count, both in 1990
and 2000.

There are very good reasons to expect many of the "extra 830,000" live in
New York City and its environs. The 1980 and 1990 Censuses had both an
undercount and an overcount. The undercount missed many in the urban areas,
especially those who were poor, immigrant, or lived in unconventional
housing arrangements (e.g. female headed, roommate situations, etc.) The
Census historically has been very good at counting married couples with
children living in a house they own. In fact, some households, especially
those which
are wealthier, are counted more than once. Sometimes this is because these
families have two or more homes..

Because of these problems, in 1990, the Census selected a large sample of
households to revisit in
person. Extraordinary means were used to get an accurate count in each of
these households a few weeks after Census Day. This count was then compared
to the Census Day enumeration. From this effort the Bureau was able to
estimate the undercount and overcount, and create adjusted totals for each
block, tract, city, county and state in the United States based upon various
characteristics, such as race, owner or renter, and so forth. This method
increased the count in large cities, especially in minority and low-income
areas. It also reduced the count in suburbs and other wealthier areas. New
York City was undercounted by a total of roughly 250,000 in 1990.

According to a federal government study in 1990, there was a nationwide
undercount of 10 million and an overcount of 4.4 million. The efforts to
estimate the undercount and overcount were spurred by a court case
originally filed in 1980 in New York City. The settlement of the case
included plans to do a scientific adjustment in 1990 based upon the special
sample. A panel of the National Academy of Sciences endorsed this approach.
Nonetheless, the Secretary of Commerce in the first Bush Administration
rejected
the adjusted numbers, so they were not used for redistricting. This had the
effect of taking political power and federal and state funds away from the
urban centers and shifting them to the suburbs and less populated areas.

The 2000 Census carried out an even larger survey for similar purposes. It
remains to be seen whether the younger Bush's Census Bureau will
allow an adjustment.

Before the new numbers were released and most people thought New York State
was just maintaining its 18.1 million population, the New York Public
Interest Research Group (NYPIRG)
and others noted that New York was losing population upstate and gaining
population downstate. It is not that the new census numbers mean this
analysis was wrong, but rather that the Census Bureau consistently
understated the size of upstate and downstate. If most of the "extra
830,000" are in New York City, then the political geography of New York
State may change decisively. In 2002, each Congressional District must
contain 654,361 people, up from 585,000 in 1990. If most of the extra New
Yorkers live downstate, when they are combined with population shifts it is
possible that most or all of the loss of Congressional representation will
be borne by upstate areas, particularly those not in cities. Furthermore,
when the State Senate and Assembly are redistricted, New York City might
gain as many as five assembly seats and two senate seats.

Originally such a shift would seem to have required an adjustment to the
Census 2000 count. But now it is not obvious how important such an
adjustment may turn out to be. The Bureau implemented many methods to
improve the coverage and results for the 2000 Census. These included
efforts to reach more households and get a higher mail back response rate,
as well as many efforts to reach those who did not return the questionnaire
by mail. We do not yet know how effective they were. However, since the
Census found an extra 6.8 million Americans, roughly 830,000 in New York
State, one might expect a much lower undercount in 2000 than 1990. Even
without any adjustment, the next redistricting may shift power to cities and
urban areas throughout New York State, and many other states. With an
adjustment the shift would be even more pronounced. At this point, all
involved are waiting for the first detailed results, which will be released
by March 31, 2001. Then we will begin to see some of the important
consequences of the 2000 Census in dividing up the votes and money.

Five Sites For Beginners:

US Census
Bureau - Hands-down candidate for the richest source of post-1990
population data for NYC. Here you will find annual updates detailing
age and sex, race and Hispanic origin, as well as births, deaths, net
domestic migration and net international migration. Excellent special
feature: county-by-county estimates of the below poverty level
population. Indispensable and superb.

American
FactFinder -
Also courtesy of the US Census Bureau. Features data on population and
housing, industry and business as well as a searchable database on any
other demographic information you could possibly want. Available by
state, metro or urbanized area. Maps too!

US/NYS Departments
of Labor - Another exemplary source is the Local Area Unemployment
Statistics unit of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Each month the
Bureau, in a joint undertaking with the State, provides county by
county estimates of the employment status of the working age
population.

U.S.
Commerce Department - A comprehensive handle on where and how New
Yorkers earn their livings. Also features information on Big Apple
employers, salaries, industries and their revenues. Especially
recommended is a database maintained as part of Commerce's Regional
Accounts.

New
York Metropolitan Transportation Council - One of the more
ambitious on-line undertakings in making regional and city statistical
data. Contains data on population, employment and income, to name a
few. Not always easy to use, but well worth the effort.

Other Recommendations:

New York City Department
of Health -- Though the website of New York City's Department of
Health is utterly confusing, their annual publication, "Summary of
Vital Statistics for New York" is indispensable for would be students
of population dynamics. And it's free. Call the Press Office at
212-788-5290 and ask for the Office of Vital Statistics and
Epidemeology. Persevere.

New York City Department
of City Planning - One would think that the DCP would have put its
population data base on-line in a user-friendly way. But no. Go figure.
It's still worth looking at their website to see the lineup of
potential sources and types of population and economic information.

New
York City's Housing and Vacancy Survey - Every three years or so
the US Census Bureau provides New York City with a census-type survey
of the city's households. Mandated by the rent regulation law, it
contains much that is of interest to those concerned with social and
economic change at the borough and neighborhood level. A compact disc
containing the microdata files for the 1991, 1993 and 1996 surveys can
be purchased from the Census Bureau. The survey for 1999 will be
available for analysts by 2000, scooping the decennial Census.

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