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Many utilities also say that despite the likely failure of climate change legislation this year, they expect that new regulations could still come down the pike — making coal, which produces a third more carbon than natural gas, an increasingly unpopular choice for future investment.

“There’s a series of regulations to coal coming under the Clean Air and Clean Water acts,” Johnson said. “If you look at the economic impact of those in the next five years, it’s staggering. It’s hundreds of billions of dollars. We’ve decided in advance we’re going to shut down a lot of old coal plants to avoid those regulations. And we are not going to invest in new coal until we have economically viable carbon sequestration technology. At the moment, for new generation, we would favor natural gas in the short term and nuclear in the long term.”

Dorgan told his coal allies that their only chance of saving their market share will be to come to the table and negotiate a climate change bill that protects them by generating billions of dollars for “clean coal” technology, which would allow coal to produce power while sequestering its carbon emissions.

But that was a tough sale to an industry that fears projected job losses in the tens of thousands under a regulated carbon regime.

“His whole point to us was that coal is being negotiated right now and you guys are not part of the negotiations,” said a coal industry lobbyist familiar with the talks in Dorgan’s office.

“Most people in the coal industry think there’s not going to be climate legislation. There’s still some danger of a bill, but they’ve probably gotten over it,” the lobbyist said.

In the debate over climate change, the coal industry has been one of the fiercest opponents of action. Since 2007, the industry has spent millions on lobbying, much of it to fight climate-change legislation.

And while coal-state Democrats such as Byrd and Dorgan have tried to give their coal allies warnings before leaving office, the industry also has deep roots in the Republican Party, with friends such as Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, who is leading the charge to ensure no climate change legislation makes it through the Senate this year — or ever.

For now, coal lobbyists say they are still targeting their allies in the Senate in an effort to make sure no carbon price passes Congress this year. They have meetings planned this week with Arkansas Democrat Blanche Lincoln, a key moderate swing vote on the bill, whom they hope to persuade to stay firmly on their side.

But they are still reflecting on the message from their soon-to-be-retired North Dakota ally. Dorgan “understands the regulatory agenda coal is facing,” the coal lobbyist said. “It’s like he got up one day and realized, ‘I’ve just got a few more weeks — I need to send this message.’”

Climate science remains unsettled. The unpredictable interactions and ultimate atmospheric fates of clouds and aerosols stand in the way of reliable global warming cause-and-effect findings. Truth is, unless and until a cost/benefit analysis can be agreed upon, and world oil rises above $80 per barrel, no pragmatic nation will self-inflict the higher energy prices that necessarily attach to climate regulations -- especially during economic recession. Climate control costs are known. The benefits are unknown.

It really is a no brainer. Stop coal immediately. cover it with natural gas, maybe some nukes, then backfill with renewables. Then sell the whole shooting match to the Chinese. Otherwise the Chinese will do it to us. The option that is NOT available is to stick your head where the sun doesn't shine and pretend there is no problem.

Taylor Examiner - oil is at $76 and you only get one guess where it will be within 1 year. So it is already time to start creating the post-carbon economy. The longer we wait, the greater the damage to the earth and to the economy.