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Weather Journal: October Snow, a New York Novelty

Snow clouds stretch from the Northeast across the U.S. in this satellite image from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

The calendar might say October, but winter is coming — and the latest forecast puts New York City in the path of a snowstorm.

Weather models for this nor’easter have flipped over the past 24 hours. Gone are the forecasts that saw a snow-free weekend inside the city itself. Now Saturday’s coastal storm is poised to traverse a nearly ideal track to bring snowfall to New York City, as well as points north and west.

A snowy outcome for the five boroughs would be nearly unprecedented. Central Park has only received measurable snow (i.e. more than flurries) before Halloween three times since 1869 — and never more than one inch.

With such a rare event in the forecast, it’s difficult to know exactly what exactly is going to happen. Meteorologists from the local office of the National Weather Service have intentionally scaled back their forecast out of respect for the historic nature of the storm. Snow is simply not supposed to happen this early in the season in this part of the country.