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From October 2014 to December 2014, the unemployment rate across the state and in the City of Detroit’s decreased (monthly);

The Purchasing Manager’s Index for Southeast Michigan increased from November 2014 to December 2014 (monthly);

Commodity Price Index decreased from November 2014 to December 2014 for Southeast Michigan (monthly);

Wayne, Macomb and Oakland counties experienced decreases in the number of monthly building permits pulled.

According to the most recent data provided by the Michigan Department of Technology, Management, and Budget, the unemployment rate for the state of Michigan decreased from 7.1 percent in October to 6.3 percent in December. During this same period, unemployment in the city of Detroit also decreased from 15.1 in October percent to 12.2 percent.

From November to December of 2014, the number of people employed in the city of Detroit increased by 1,775, leading to a total of 287,228 people employed in December.

The above chart shows the number of people employed in the auto manufacturing industry in the Detroit Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) (Detroit-Warren-Livonia) from December 2013 to December 2014. From July 2014 to November 2014 employment in this industry has increased by 9,000 from 91,600 to 100,600. However, from November to December, that number stagnated, remaining at 100,600. This was still the highest it had been over the last year.

The Purchasing Manger’s Index (PMI) is a composite index derived from five indicators of economic activity: new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories. A PMI above 50 means the economy is expanding.

According to the most recent data released on Southeast Michigan’s Purchasing Manager’s Index, the PMI for December 2014 was 64.2, an increase of 7.4 points from the prior month. As compared to December 2013, there has been an increase of 13.6 points.

The Commodity Price Index, which is a weighted average of selected commodity prices, was recorded at 54.2 points in December 2014, which was 7.6 points lower than the previous month and 1.9 points higher than December 2013.

The above charts show the number of residential building permits obtained each month in Oakland, Macomb, and Wayne counties from January 2013 until December 2014. These numbers are reported by local municipalities to the Southeastern Michigan Council of Governments and include single-family units, two-family units, attached condos, and multi-family units.

Oakland, Wayne, and Macomb counties all experienced a decrease in the number of building permits pulled from November 2014 to December 2014. These declines are largely seasonal, due to weather. Only Wayne County issued more permits in December 2014 than it did in December 2013. Oakland County issued 131 permits in December of 2014, a decrease of 10 compared to November 2014 and a decrease of 18 compared to December 2013. Macomb County issued 31 permits in December 2014, 47 fewer than in November 2014 and 52 fewer than in December 2013.

Wayne County issued nine fewer building permits in December than November of this year; in total 52 permits were pulled. This is seven more than the number pulled for the county in December 2013.

A look at the information presented below shows the numbers of healthcare related jobs becoming available are on the rise. As this industry is expected to grow in the Detroit area (Lapeer, Monroe, Macomb, Oakland, St. Clair and Wayne counties) job loss in the manufacturing industry is expected to continue through 2018. Overall in the area there is expected to be about 112,000 more jobs added to the Detroit area labor market through 2018; this is a 5.5 percent growth.

All of the information presented on job growth and decline spans over 10 years, from 2008 to 2018.

Of the industry and occupation forecasts examined in this post, the industry forecasts are produced by the Michigan Department of Management, Technology and Budget. The industry forecasts are based on historical job trends in the specific industry and the expected short-term, or long-term demand, in those sectors. These demands are determined by industry experts and the Michigan Department of Management, Technology and Budget. Once the industry projections are produced, information on occupational staffing patterns and the shifting trends in such occupational patterns are examined. The examination of these patterns is then used to generate the occupational forecasts.

According to the Michigan Department of Management, Technology and Budget, since a specific occupation is often found in many industries, the relative concentration of an occupation in high demand or low demand industries impacts the overall expected growth rate. Technology factors are also used because the impact of technological change can decrease or increase future jobs in specific occupations.

The above charts show the top 10 jobs the Michigan Department of Technology, Management and Budget predicts will experience the highest percent of growth from 2008-2018 in the Detroit area. While the percentage of growth for the above occupations range from 48 to 26 percent, the raw numbers show the growth will not be that significant. For example, there is a projected 36.3 percent growth in the financial examiner occupation in the Detroit area through 2018. However, when looking at the raw numbers it shows that 36 percent growth is equivalent to 65 jobs over a 10 year span.

Occupations are defined as a set of activities or tasks that persons are paid to perform. Someone can have the same occupation as another person and not be employed in the same industry.

The above chart shows the expected top 10 growing occupations in the Detroit area through 2018, based on raw or absolute numbers. While three health related occupations are on the top 10 list based on percent of growth, they did not make this top 10 list on raw numbers. According to the Michigan Department of Technology, Management and Budget, healthcare practitioners and technical related occupations will experience the most growth with an expected 18,911 increase in jobs through 2018. There are four healthcare related occupations that are expected to add about 92,000 jobs in the Detroit area in the coming years. The two computer and technology occupations on the list are expected to add about 19,000 jobs.

While health and computer related fields are among the occupations suggested to experience growth through 2018, it is the manual labor based jobs that are suggested to decline, according to the Michigan Department of Technology, Management and Budget. The above two charts show the top 10 declining occupations in the Detroit area based on percent of decline. Drilling and boring occupations are expected to decline the most by percent through 2018. However, when looking at the raw numbers of the 10 occupations shown above, postal service sorters and processors are expected lose the most number of jobs.

When examining the top 10 occupations expected to experience the most job loss through 2018 based on raw numbers, most are related to manufacturing processes. There is only one listed in the top 10 declining occupations based on percent decline. This occupation is the postal service sorters and processors. The Michigan Department of Technology, Management and Budget expects there to be a loss of 1,006 positions in this occupation through 2018. The production occupation is expected to experience the largest decline in jobs, based on raw numbers from 2008 to 2018. There is an estimated loss of 16,818 jobs.

Of the top 10 growing industries in the Detroit area, based on percent growth, three are healthcare related and one is technology related. When examining the raw numbers of the top 10 growing industries based on percent growth the healthcare and social assistance industry is expected to grow the most, by 47,421 jobs in the 10 year period.

An industry is a group of establishments that produces similar goods and services.

When just examining the raw numbers of expected job increases of the top growing industries in the Detroit area, the healthcare and social assistance industry is expected to experience the most amount of growth. This industry is expected to produce an additional 47,421 jobs through 2018.

When looking at the raw numbers of the industries presented in the above two charts, fabricated metal product manufacturing is expected to experience the largest decline with a loss of 4,144 jobs. Machine manufacturing came in closely behind with an expected loss of 3,836 jobs.

When examining declining industries in the Detroit area, six of the top 10 declining industries, based on percent of decline, match those on the top 10 declining list based on just the raw numbers. Of those six that match both lists, four industries are manufacturing based. Overall, the Michigan Department of Technology, Management and Budget is expecting a loss of 40,332 manufacturing related industry jobs in the Detroit area through 2018.

•For the month of April 2013, Detroit’s unemployment rate decreased while the number of employed remained steady.

•When looking at the auto-manufacturing employment, the data showed employment in this industry continued to increase since January 2013 for the Detroit Metropolitan Statistical Area.

•Purchasing Manager’s Index remained steady from March 2013 to April 2013 for Southeast Michigan (monthly);

•Commodity Price Index decreased from March 2013 to April 2013 for Southeast Michigan (monthly);

•The most recent Consumer Price Index changes for all and all items less food and energy showed no increase (bi-monthly) for the Detroit-Ann Arbor-Flint area;

•Building permits pulled increased for Wayne and Oakland counties from March 2013 to April 2013; they decreased for Macomb County (monthly).

According to the most recent data provided by the Michigan Department of Technology, Management and Budget, the March 2013 and April 2013 unemployment rates for the State of Michigan were 8.8 and 8.4 per 100 people, respectively. Since July 2012, the unemployment rates for the State of Michigan decreased. For the City of Detroit, the unemployment rate for March and April of this year were 17.5 and 16. While there have been fluctuations in the city’s unemployment rate, the unemployment rate in the City of Detroit was 15.8 in April 2012, just .2 lower than the April 2013 rate.

Since February 2013, the unemployment rate in the City of Detroit decreased while the number of employed slightly increased.

In March 2013, there were 280,363 employed Detroit residents and in April 2013 it was reported there were 280,367 people employed.

The above chart shows the number of people employed in the auto manufacturing industry in the Detroit Metropolitan Statistical Area from April 2012 to April 2013. Employment sharply increased in January 2013 and continued to increase through April 2013. In April 2013, 92,800 people were employed in both the auto manufacturing and auto parts manufacturing industries, which is 15,300 more than were employed in this sector in April 2012.

The Purchasing Manger’s Index (PMI) is a composite index derived from five indicators of economic activity: new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories; a PMI above 50 means the economy is expanding. According to the most recent data released on Southeastern Michigan’s Purchasing Manager’s Index, the number decreased by .4 points from March 2013 to April 2013; in April it was recorded at 55.3. The PMI of 55.3 indicates the economy was expanding. The recorded number for April of this year, however, is 7.3 points below where it was in 2012.

The Commodity Price Index, which is a weighted average of selected commodity prices for Southeast Michigan, fluctuated throughout 2012. For January and February 2013 the index appeared to be following the same pattern as 2012. However, there was a decrease of 8.8 points from March 2013 to April 2013. From February 2013 to April 2013 there was a 16.7 point decrease. When comparing the Commodity Price Index from April 2012 to April 2013 there was a 6.9 point decrease.

The Consumer Price Index measures the change in prices. The prices which are measured are based on prices of “food, clothing, shelter, fuels, transportation fares, charges for doctors’ and dentists’ services, drugs, and the other goods and services that people buy for day-to-day living,” according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The above graphs show the percent change in the price index measurements. This means although the graph appears to show a decrease from February there was no change since the percent change is 0.

The Consumer Price Index, which is reported every two months, did not change from February 2013 to April 2013 for the Detroit-Ann Arbor-Flint area. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics this is mainly based on the fact that energy and food costs did not experience much increase within the past two months. From February to April there was a .1 decrease in the energy index and a .3 increase in the food index. The Consumer Price Index minus the prices of energy and food, shown in the second Consumer Price Index graph, also remained the same. This stability was based around the fact that the price for apparel and shelter rose while medical costs decreased, according to the BLS.

The above charts show the number of residential building permits obtained each month in Oakland, Macomb, and Wayne counties from January 2012 until April 2013. These numbers are reported by local municipalities to the Southeastern Michigan Council of Governments and include single family, two family, attached condo, and multi-family units. Macomb County was the only one of the three counties that did not experience an increase in the number of permits obtained from March to April in either 2012 or 2013. Oakland County had the largest increase in the number of building permits pulled from March to April of this year. For Oakland County, there was an increase in 82 permits pulled. In Wayne County, there was a 53 permit increase.

When comparing the number of permits pulled in April 2012 and April 2013, all three counties showed an increase over the previous year.

In the coming weeks Drawing Detroit will be posting a map showing where growth in the housing industry is taking place in Macomb, Oakland and Wayne counties; please check back for updates.

Although it appears Detroit’s population is beginning to steady, the start of 2013 showed increased unemployment rates and zero growth for the number of building permits pulled.

•Since 2010 Detroit’s population has appeared to be steadying, only experiencing slight decline;

•For the tri-county area, the population’s in Macomb and Oakland counties have been increasing while Wayne County’s population has been historically declining.

•Unemployment rate increases, while the number of employed decreases. The number of auto manufacturing and auto parts manufacturing employees also increased from December 2012 to January 2013 though (monthly);

•Purchasing manager’s index decreased from January 2013 to February 2013 (monthly);

•Commodity price index increased from January 2013 to February 2013s (monthly);

•The most recent consumer price index changes for all and all items less food and energy increased (bi-monthly);

•Building permits increase for Oakland and Macomb counties in January and February 2013, compared to the same months in 2012. In Wayne County, the number of permits in the first two months of year declined, compared to last year from last year to this year (monthly) . No building permits were pulled for Detroit.

Overall, the City of Detroit’s population has experienced a decline, going from about 1.5 million residents in 1970 to 677,891 in 2012. However, from 2010, when the U.S. Census Bureau released its most recent Census data, to 2012, the population has seemed to somewhat stabilize. From 2010 to 2012 there was a decline of 35,109 residents. This decline is based on 2010 Census data and compared with Southeastern Michigan Council of Governments data (2012). The biannual population estimates from SEMCOG are based on trends from area demographics.

Since 1970, Oakland and Macomb counties have experienced population increases while Wayne County has experienced a population decline. From 2010 to 2012 Oakland County’s population increased from 1,203,012 to 1,216,207. In that same time frame Macomb County’s population increased from 841,126 in 2010 to 843,435. Wayne County had a population decline of 1,815,734 in 2010 to 1,787,920.

All information is based on Census data, except for the 2012 data. These numbers are Southeastern Michigan Council of Governments data; the biannual population estimates from SEMCOG are based on trends from area demographics.

According to the most recent data provided by the Michigan Department of Technology, Management and Budget, the January 2013 unemployment rate for the State of Michigan was 8.9 per 100 people, which is the same as it was in November and December of last year. For the City of Detroit, 19.8 percent of the population were unemployed in January 2013; this is an increase 1.7 percent from the city’s percentage of unemployed in December 2012 .

The number of employed in the City of Detroit decreased by 2,043 people from January to February of 2013. From October 2012 to January 2013 there was a loss of 5,407 employed people.

The above chart shows the number of people employed in auto manufacturing industry in the Detroit Metropolitan Statistical Area throughout 2012 and into 2013. Employment peaked in January 2013, with 90,700 people being employed in both the auto manufacturing and auto parts manufacturing industries. This is 10,400 more people employed from the previous peak of 80,300 employees in March of 2012.

According to the most recent data released on Southeastern Michigan’s Purchasing Manager’s Index, the number decreased by 3.6 points from January 2013 to February 2013; in February it was recorded at 51.7. The recorded number for February of this year is13.4 points below where it was in 2012.The Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) is a composite index derived from five indicators of economic activity: new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories; a PMI above 50 means the economy is expanding. The PMI of 51.7 means the economy continues to expand.

The Commodity Price Index, which is a weighted average of selected commodity prices for Southeast Michigan, fluctuated throughout 2012 and, so far, is appearing to follow a similar trend in 2013. However, the Commodity Price Index has been reported at slightly higher levels for January and February of 2013 than it was in the same months for 2012. From January 2013 to February 2013 the Commodity Price Index increased from 58.9 to 66.7. The score in February 2013 is .2 points above where the Commodity Price Index was in February of 2012.

The Consumer Price Index, which is reported every two months, increased 1.1 percent from December of 2012 to February of this year. From February of 2012 until last month the CPI increased .7 percent in the Detroit-Ann Arbor-Flint area. The Consumer Price Index measures the change in prices in a fixed market. The prices which are measured are based on prices of “food, clothing, shelter, fuels, transportation fares, charges for doctors’ and dentists’ services, drugs, and the other goods and services that people buy for day-to-day living,” according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Increased prices for energy (a 3.9 percent increase) and a .3 percent increase in the food index were noted for the change.

The Consumer Price Index, minus the prices of energy and food, shown in the second Consumer Price Index graph, increased .8 percent from December to February. This was because of pricing related to shelter recreation, and motor vehicles, according to the BLS.

The above charts show the number of residential building permits obtained each month in Oakland, Macomb, and Wayne counties from January 2012 until the present. These numbers are reported by local municipalities to the Southeastern Michigan Council of Governments and include single family, two family, attached condo, and multi-family units. The information presented shows that the number of building permits obtained in Oakland and Macomb counties this year, so far, are higher than those pulled in January and February of last year. While the Oakland County numbers are higher for 2013 than 2012 thus far, from January to February of 2013 there was decline of permits pulled. In Oakland County, 222 have permits have been pulled in 2013, so far, and in Macomb County 284 have been pulled. In Wayne County, on the other hand, there has been a decrease in the number of building permits pulled for January and February of 2013 compared to them same months in 2012. In 2012 a total of 102 permits were pulled for both months and in 2013 there have been 107 pulled.

In 2013 thus far, Macomb County leads with the most number of building permits pulled.

According to the Southeastern Michigan Council of Governments data used for these charts, in January and February of 2013 zero building permits have been pulled in the City of Detroit.