Wednesday, January 18, 2012

Window on Eurasia: Next Phase of Russian Crisis Likely to Arise in Provinces, Expert Says

Paul Goble

Staunton,
January 18 – Sergey Belanovsky, research director of the Moscow Center of
Strategic Developments which predicted the mass demonstrations at the end of
2011, says that the next phase of Russia’s political crisis is likely to take
place in the provinces, with strikes and uprisings there attracting sympathy
and support from the urban middle class.

In an
interview posted on the “Russky zhurnal” portal yesterday, the sociologist says
that unlike many of his colleagues, he personally “did not expect such
activity” in Moscow, adding that those thinking about the future need to
remember that it is not the case that “all revolutions are made in capital cities”
(www.russ.ru/pole/Perspektivy-politicheskogo-krizisa).

While
many revolutions are in fact made there, Belanovsky continues, “there is
another type of revolution” which could be “purely conditionally called ‘the
peasant war,’ when on the territory of a large country uprisings break out
which then come together into a single movement” beyond the capacity of the
central authorities to cope.

China,
of course, has been a “classical” case of such revolutions throughout history,
he noted, adding that he considers that “it is completely probable that in
Russia all will go namely according to the scenario of a peasant war,” a
conclusion he reached on the basis of a number of focus group sessions in
central Russia outside of Moscow.

Participants
in these sessions routinely complain about governors who take care of their
capitals but do little or nothing for the rest of their regions or republics.
Such attitudes are likely to grow, Belanovsky says, leading to the outbreak of
strikes and protests about specific issues beyond the capacity of the regime to
deal with.

A major
reason why he expects that pattern of development and why unlike others he
believed that not everything “will begin in the capital,” the analyst
continues, is that Moscow has been “quiet for quite a long time.” The middle
class there has now woken up, but it is not alone: future events “will
intensify both in the capital and in the provinces.”

Asked
about his institute’s suggestion that following parliamentary elections there
would need to be a coalition government and a new prime minister, Belanovsky
says that such a figure must be “attractive and sufficiently independent … in
any case “not [incumbent President] Dmitry Medvedev.”

Unfortunately,
the analyst suggests, there are not a large number of such people around, but
the list might include Igor Sechin and Sergey Ivanov, who might be able to
overcome a situation which currently is defined by the “aging” of “brand Putin”
and the danger of a new period of stagnation.

According
to Belanovsky, there is “no chance” that “brand Putin” can be “rehabilitated.”
The only thing that could continue would be “a scenario of conservatism.” That
is at least possible because “the female electorate… categorically does not
want a revolution. Perhaps, it will be this segment [of the population] that
will allow the situation to be preserved.”

Putin
may somehow be able to maintain his “brand” even after the March elections, but
if he does so, the analyst argues, it will be possible to “make an analogy with
the Brezhnev brand,” although the situation today “is already not what it was
then.” At that time, the regime was able to maintain “the illusion” of control,
but it cannot do so now.

The power
structures of today and of Putin “in particular” may be able to change their
rhetoric but they “are not in a situation to seriously influence the situation
in the country,” he goes on to say. Putin’s practice of combining “threatening
rhetoric” with inaction” is “losing its effectiveness and the people are tired
of it.”

Putin
will certainly try to advance a new program much as Soviet leaders did at
meetings of the Communist Party, but people will only react negatively now just
as they reacted negatively 30-40 years ago – and for the same reason, they
won’t listen to the message, even if it is reasonable, because they have
already reached a judgment on the messenger.

Clearly,
Belanovsky concludes, the protest wave will proceed in a sine curve, with periods
of growth and periods of decline.In
response, as it has done already, the powers will make “concessions,” albeit
only “nominal ones.” But such concessions will “provoke and intensify the
pressure” against them.

In this
situation, the sociologist says, something will break out “somewhere in the
provinces.” Then, “in Moscow, protest groups will immediately assemble in
support of the regional protests” and send “volunteer emissaries.”The country will thus be united in this way
because after all “the Internet works.”