Now Silver has released his Super Bowl XLVII prediction this week on NYTimes.com, choosing the San Francisco 49ers to emerge victorious over the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday. But 49ers fans shouldn't get too cocky — the NFL playoffs just may have killed Silver's omniscient mojo.

On Jan. 10, Silver appeared on ESPN after the playoffs' initial wild-card rounds had been settled and delivered a Super Bowl matchup projection. The New England Patriots would take on the Seattle Seahawks, he said. He also deemed the Patriots and Denver Broncos as likely the NFL's two top teams (But since they're both in the AFC, that Super Bowl matchup wouldn't be possible.)

Two days later, the Ravens beat the Broncos, and a day after that Seattle was knocked out by the Atlanta Falcons. The Ravens, powered by a viral "Call Me Maybe" parody, then went on to beat the Patriots for their Super Bowl berth. If you're scoring at home, that basically means Silver couldn't have done any worse.

And all this from a guy who first entered the public eye providing advanced sports analysis for baseball teams in the early 2000s.

Boiling it down, here's what Silver has to say about Super Bowl XLVII: Looking at statistics and history, a strong defense correlates with Super Bowl success much more than a strong offense does. The 49ers defense has performed better than the Ravens D this year, plus the 49ers have a stronger offense, statistically speaking, according to the website Pro Football Reference. Baltimore did have the best special teams unit in the league this year — but still, Silver writes, "there isn’t much to recommend the Ravens."

So judging by that analysis, 49ers fans should prep the champagne and Mission District police officers should dust off their riot gear. But judging by Silver's lackluster results so far this postseason, Ravens fans should perhaps take pleasure in the stat savant's gloomy outlook for their team.

But here's the catch and why neither fan base should get too comfortable: Silver's formula relies heavily on educated analysis of probability, and his picks aren't by any means iron-clad peeks into the future.

This is what confused many conservatives who blasted Silver for bias during election season; while his predictions favored President Obama, they still gave Mitt Romney a varying change of winning and never said he wouldn't be elected. There's just a much higher margin for error, even for someone like Silver, in predicting NFL football than predicting presidential elections.

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