The Liberal party creeped past the 54 seat needed to claim a majority, scoring 59 of them, and holding 38.6% of the popular vote. This was leaps and bounds ahead of Tim Hudak’s Progressive Conservatives, which elected only 27 seats and 31.2% of the vote — a gap far wider than predicted in public opinion polls in the last days of a campaign characterized as nasty and polarized. The NDP elected 21 representatives with 24.0% of the vote.

The stunning victory for Ms. Wynne’s Liberals is a vote of confidence for a party that has moved left of centre and baited the NDP with a socially progressive budget in order to hold onto power.

“I am so proud to be standing in front of you as the first woman elected in this province,” she told a crowd of whooping supporters, who often interrupted her talk to chant her name. “This is a beautiful, inclusive place to live in, Ontario. And I want us every single day to remember that.”

This is a province, she said, “where anyone can be the premier.”

Ontarians “do not hold prejudice in their hearts,” she said, and the province is committed to inclusiveness, and “we have so proven that tonight.”

Ms. Wynne coaxed her partner, Jane Rounthwaite, on stage to share in her victory.

She then welcomed her core team of supporters, friends and family on stage for celebratory hugs. They all hoisted their arms in the air in victory.

It’s the first time Ontarians have elected a gay, female premier. Ms. Wynne succeeded Dalton McGuinty at a party leadership convention, elected by peers but not by Ontarians at large. She also inherited his 11 years of baggage — most prominent among them, the gas plant scandal estimated to cost taxpayers $1.1 billion — but Ontarians appeared to have accepted her apologies on her party’s behalf, and warmed to her promise of a new future.

Her warnings against a slash-and-burn conservative government, which would bleed public sector jobs in order to help stimulate the economy, also appear to have resonated, and the Liberals’ attempt to claim longtime NDP-held ridings in Toronto made the races there neck and neck battles.

In reacting to his party’s defeat, Mr. Hudak announced he will step down as leader of the PC party and allow a new leader to take the reins in the next election.

“We did not receive the results we wanted,” he said, calling the campaign “hard fought” and positive on the PCs part in attempting to deliver “hope and change.”

But Ms. Wynne will “have the opportunity to deliver the change Ontario so clearly needs,” he said. “Nobody should take this result as an endorement of the status quo. She ail be held accountable if she does not deliver on that change.”

He said his party (Mr. Hudak was re-elected in his riding of Niagara-Glenbrook) and will continue to fight for private jobs creation.

Speaking to a sparse crowd of about 200 supporters in Hamilton, Andrea Horwath — widely pilloried for her lurch to the right and seemingly nebulous campaign — said she would stay on to lead her third-place party.

“New Democrats are fighters and we’re going to keep fighting for the things that matter most for families,” said Horwath, who seemed close to tears.

The Liberals claimed the contested riding of Etobicoke-Lakeshore where former Toronto councilor Doug Holyday ran against another former councilor Peter Milczyn and lost. The longtime NDP riding of Trinity-Spadina also leaned heavily towards the Liberals with half the polls reporting, signaling a possible ouster for Rosario Marchese.

The Liberals also won the bellwether riding of Kitchener-Centre, which the PCs fought hard to try to win back.

The Liberals ran on a socially progressive campaign, promising significant investment in infrastructure and job creation, as well as the development of an Ontario pension plan that would help families save for their futures.

In the last legislative session the Liberals held 48 seats, the Progressive Conservatives had 37 and the NDP held 21 while one seat was vacant.

For those wondering, no, Horwath did not resign, even though her party had a horrible result. They turned down an ‘NDP’ budget from Liberals and are now the third party, instead of holding balance of power.

For those wondering, no, Horwath did not resign, even though her party had a horrible result. They turned down an ‘NDP’ budget from Liberals and are now the third party, instead of holding balance of power.

“I congratulate Premier-designate Kathleen Wynne on a hard-fought election campaign and her majority win. This election is an historic moment for the province: Kathleen Wynne has now become the first woman ever elected to the office of Premier of Ontario. I look forward to working with her to build an economy that works for the middle class, and for those who work hard every day to join it.

“Ontario needs a partner in Ottawa, not an antagonist. We Liberals are determined to work with the provincial government to build that positive alternative for Ontarians and all other Canadians.”

The restaurant where Jane Twinney, Ontario Progressive Conservative candidate for Newmarket-Aurora, had hoped to make a victory speech, has filled up with friends and supporters. Food is being served, drinks enjoyed. Two TVs are showing province-wide results. It’s a good room. Lots of laughter and chit-chat.

You’d almost be forgiven for not realizing that the Ontario PCs have suffered a crushing defeat in this election, with even this riding — long Tory blue — going to the Liberals by a comfortable margin. We’ll never know what Ms. Twinney might have said in victory. She’ll be offering her concession, instead.

It’s the same in all directions. The only spot of Ontario the Tories absolutely need to win — Toronto’s 905 suburbs — has rejected them, again. I’ll have more to say about this in my column, appearing in tomorrow’s paper, but this has got to be The Problem for the party going forward. If they can’t win the 905, they can’t win. It’s that simple. And they’re not winning here.

Boy, that’s gotta hurt. Trinity-Spadina, NDP orange since its creation in 1999, home of quarter-century veteran MPP Rosario Marchese, is now beet Liberal red — courtesy of his replacement, Han Dong. At deadline, the Liberals seemed to be threatening several other Liberal redoubts in the 416. The New Democrats seem to have picked up a couple of seats, but to what end, it’s not clear. Expect loud, echoing calls of “I Told You So” from leader Andrea Horwath’s critics.

One of the key questions that emerged as Ontario’s election campaign unfolded was: How much was Ms. Horwath risking in her urban ridings, and how much did Kathleen Wynne stand to gain from that?

A week ago everyone was talking about the lousy campaign Andrea Horwath had run, and how she was going to have to explain forcing the election. She may still have some explaining to do, but the NDP appears certain to pick up seats, while the Tories haven’t gained a single one.

Meanwhile, Han Dong has won Trinity-Spadina over long-time NDP MPP Rosario Marchese. Does not bode well for NDP’s Joe Cressy who is up against Liberal Adam Vaughan in the federal byelection to take Olivia Chow’s old seat later this month.

Kathleen Wynne sits with her mother Patsy O’Day (right) and father John Wynne along with partner Jane Rounthwaite (left) as they watch election results in Toronto on Thursday. (THE CANADIAN PRESS/Frank Gunn)

A sparse crowd watches television coverage as election results are tallied at the Ontario NDP election night party for Leader Andrea Horwath in Stoney Creek, Ont., Thursday, June 12, 2014. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Aaron Lynett

After 11 years, several high-profile scandals and a fiscal deficit that is moving in the wrong direction, the Ontario Liberals were are track to win a resounding victory on Thursday night in a result that seemed unthinkable only 18 months ago.

Premier Kathleen Wynne, who replaced Dalton McGuinty after he resigned in October, 2012, amid the controversial and costly cancellation of two gas plants for political reasons, was poised to actually increase her seat count in the Ontario legislature and was on the cusp of a majority government.

I’ve gone door-knocking in Ottawa Orleans on four federal and provincial elections. My rule of thumb says the francophone always wins – and it looks like that rule will hold tonight. Early yet but Marie-France Lalonde, the Liberal, has a big lead over PC’s Andrew Lister. The Tories needed this riding.

The vibe here in Newmarket-Aurora is decidedly mixed. The results coming in over the TV are clearly not doing much for the Tory crowd here. I’m hearing lots of “It’s still early” — and that’s true, but unless every Tory ballot is being counted last by some weird coincidence, it’s pretty clear that it’s going to be a Liberal government, and perhaps a majority one. So that’s going over as well as you’d expect. But there’s still a lot of optimism that this particular riding will remain Progressive Conservative blue. And that’s something, right? RIGHT?!

As the ballots roll in, Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals are seeing some early results in their favour — with a lead of around 45%, Tim Hudak’s Tories leaving a gap in their wake with about 34%.

In the early going, the Liberals are projected to take 37.44% of the vote, versus the Pcs 30.02%. The NDP is not far behind with approximately 25% of the vote in polls reporting.

The closeness is already clear in Kitchener-Centre, with the PCs only just leading in a riding that went Liberal in a by-election (Tory Wayne Wettlaufeur, who won Kitchener for the party in 1995, is playing for a comeback.

Polls predicted the race would be tight: The Liberals and the Progressive Conservatives were neck and neck in the polls heading into Thursday’s vote, the Liberals slightly ahead with a projected 36.9% and the Tories 35.8% according to poll aggregator Threehundredeight.com. An Ipsos-Reid poll released Wednesday said 33% of decided voters would go Liberal, 31% would give the Progressive Conservatives their vote and 30% would support the NDP, although most polls have the NDP farther back, even as much as 17%.

Just talked to Liberal Peter Milczyn who is watching the results roll in at home with his wife and young daughter. Last he saw, he was up by 1 vote on Tory incumbent Doug Holyday in Etobicoke Lakeshore. “It’s going to be a tight race so we might have a late night,” said Milczyn, who is a city councillor.

Peterborough
This southern-Ontario riding has managed to choose the party that will go on to form government for the last seven elections in Ontario. If that trend continues, the winner here could be telling of the overall picture in Ontario.

Trinity-Spadina
Currently held by the NDP’s Rosario Marchese, this typically progressive downtown Toronto riding is expected to be a close race with Liberal candidate Han Dong looking to gain ground.

Peterborough
This southern-Ontario riding has managed to choose the party that will go on to form government for the last seven elections in Ontario. If that trend continues, the winner here could be telling of the overall picture in Ontario.

Trinity-Spadina
Currently held by the NDP’s Rosario Marchese, this typically progressive downtown Toronto riding is expected to be a close race with Liberal candidate Han Dong looking to gain ground.

As the ballots roll in, Ontarians are slated to find out whether Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals can keep hold of power or if 11 years in office are about to end for a party plagued with scandal, ushering a new era of conservatism for the province.

Either way, it’s expected to be close: The Liberals and the Progressive Conservatives were neck and neck in the polls heading into Thursdays vote, the Liberals slightly ahead with a projected 36.9% and the Tories 35.8% according to poll aggregator Threehundredeight.com. An Ipsos-Reid poll released Wednesday said 33% of decided voters would go Liberal, 31% would give the Progressive Conservatives their vote and 30% would support the NDP, although most polls have the NDP farther back, even as much as 17%.

The political futures of Mr. Hudak and Ms. Horwath are possibly at stake tonight, the NDP leader having taken a risk in toppling the minority Liberal government in rejection of an NDP friendly budget last month.

The election will be decided in key battleground ridings such as Kitchener-Centre, Glengary-Prescott-Russell near Ottawa and much of the GTA.

At his last campaign stop Thursday morning, Mr. Hudak seized the opportunity to call out Ms. Wynne for running a “negative campaign,” and insisted he’s only been “honest” with voters about how his Million Jobs Plan is to be achieved: shrinking government, cutting corporate taxes and reducing the size of the public sector (by 100,000 jobs) will stimulate the economy and create a million jobs over the next eight years, he’s promised. It’s an alternative he said is more cost effective than the contested premier’s $2.5 billion jobs plan.

“If you have no new ideas for jobs and you run a campaign of fear, all you care about is keeping your own job. I want to create more jobs for young men and young women,” he said from Toronto’s Pearson International Airport, where his job pitch squared on keeping people from looking for work in Alberta and Saskatchewan.

Ms. Wynne asked progressives to vote strategically for much of the campaign leading up to Thursday’s vote — “a vote for Horwath is a vote for Hudak” — though pulled back in the final day or two, leaving the decision up to voters. But she did say this: “I am not going to support Tim Hudak’s plan to undermine the recovery of Ontario. It is wrongheaded, it is exactly the opposite of what needs to happen.”

Ms. Wynne spent the last day of her campaign in Toronto, where Liberals made a play for long-held NDP seats. High profile NDPers expressed dismay at what they perceive to be Ms. Horwath’s betrayal of the base by moving the party in a more populist, business-friendly direction.

Ms. Horwath dismissed the discontent, saying she had surveyed Ontarians and crafted a platform — one , she felt they wanted an NDP government to carry out.

“They don’t have to choose between the bad ethics of the Liberals and the bad math of Mr. Hudak. They can actually choose a party that has proven that we listen to what Ontarians have to say.”

It has been characterized as an election of unsavoury choice, spurring campaigns like Decline Your Vote gaining traction amongst voters who would rather not vote for any of the major parties. Hanging over it all is the gas plants cancellation, which the province’s auditor general has said could cost up to $1.1 billion. Ms. Wynne is still suing Mr. Hudak for libel over comments made about her alleged involvement in the cancellation.

There are 107 ridings at stake in Ontario’s election. In the last legislative session the Liberals held 48 seats, the Progressive Conservatives had 37 and the NDP held 21 while one seat was vacant.

Oakville Liberal Kevin Flynn’s signs are like a tally of government money funnelled to local projects. “More GO trains!” “New Hospital.” I haven’t found one yet the mentions “Billion dollar power plant — Not Built!”

Oakville Liberal Kevin Flynn’s signs are like a tally of government money funnelled to local projects. “More GO trains!” “New Hospital.” I haven’t found one yet the mentions “Billion dollar power plant — Not Built!”

Not far from where I sit right now in Aurora is the riding of Thornhill, another affluent 905-suburban riding just north of Toronto (maybe a 20 minute drive south of here). Thornhill and Newmarket-Aurora have something interesting in common, which is why they were my two top picks for places to hang out tonight: Both are ridings that went blue in 2011, while everything else around them went Liberal red, and both are also seeing new Tory candidates. Peter Shurman, former Progressive Conservative finance critic, left politics late last year after messy revelations that he’d been billing taxpayers for expenses related to his retirement home in Niagara-on-the-Lake. It’s a complicated story, as he was fully within his legal rights to do so under provincial regulations, but only because his retirement home — nowhere near his riding — was listed as his primary residence, while the apartment he kept near his constituents was, well, not. Mr. Shurman apparently had party leader Tim Hudak’s permission to do this, but it was still pretty embarrassing for everyone when it came out. Anyway, the long and short of it: With Shurman and Newmarket-Aurora’s Frank Klees both stepping down, Mr. Hudak’s only seats in York Region are currently being contested by fresh PC candidates.

As the ballots roll in, Ontarians are slated to find out whether Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals can keep hold of power or if 11 years in office are about to end for a party plagued with scandal, ushering a new era of conservatism for the province.

Either way, it’s expected to be close: The Liberals and the Progressive Conservatives were neck and neck in the polls heading into Thursdays vote, the Liberals slightly ahead with a projected 36.9% and the Tories 35.8% according to poll aggregator Threehundredeight.com. An Ipsos-Reid poll released Wednesday said 33% of decided voters would go Liberal, 31% would give the Progressive Conservatives their vote and 30% would support the NDP, although most polls have the NDP farther back, even as much as 17%.

The political futures of Mr. Hudak and Ms. Horwath are possibly at stake tonight, the NDP leader having taken a risk in toppling the minority Liberal government in rejection of an NDP friendly budget last month.

The election will be decided in key battleground ridings such as Kitchener-Centre, Glengary-Prescott-Russell near Ottawa and much of the GTA.

At his last campaign stop Thursday morning, Mr. Hudak seized the opportunity to call out Ms. Wynne for running a “negative campaign,” and insisted he’s only been “honest” with voters about how his Million Jobs Plan is to be achieved: shrinking government, cutting corporate taxes and reducing the size of the public sector (by 100,000 jobs) will stimulate the economy and create a million jobs over the next eight years, he’s promised. It’s an alternative he said is more cost effective than the contested premier’s $2.5 billion jobs plan.

“If you have no new ideas for jobs and you run a campaign of fear, all you care about is keeping your own job. I want to create more jobs for young men and young women,” he said from Toronto’s Pearson International Airport, where his job pitch squared on keeping people from looking for work in Alberta and Saskatchewan.

Ms. Wynne asked progressives to vote strategically for much of the campaign leading up to Thursday’s vote — “a vote for Horwath is a vote for Hudak” — though pulled back in the final day or two, leaving the decision up to voters. But she did say this: “I am not going to support Tim Hudak’s plan to undermine the recovery of Ontario. It is wrongheaded, it is exactly the opposite of what needs to happen.”

Ms. Wynne spent the last day of her campaign in Toronto, where Liberals made a play for long-held NDP seats. High profile NDPers expressed dismay at what they perceive to be Ms. Horwath’s betrayal of the base by moving the party in a more populist, business-friendly direction.

Ms. Horwath dismissed the discontent, saying she had surveyed Ontarians and crafted a platform — one , she felt they wanted an NDP government to carry out.

“They don’t have to choose between the bad ethics of the Liberals and the bad math of Mr. Hudak. They can actually choose a party that has proven that we listen to what Ontarians have to say.”

It has been characterized as an election of unsavoury choice, spurring campaigns like Decline Your Vote gaining traction amongst voters who would rather not vote for any of the major parties. Hanging over it all is the gas plants cancellation, which the province’s auditor general has said could cost up to $1.1 billion. Ms. Wynne is still suing Mr. Hudak for libel over comments made about her alleged involvement in the cancellation.

There are 107 ridings at stake in Ontario’s election. In the last legislative session the Liberals held 48 seats, the Progressive Conservatives had 37 and the NDP held 21 while one seat was vacant.

Greetings from Aurora, a town about 50 klicks due north of downtown Toronto. Aurora is the southern half of the riding Newmarket-Aurora, with the northern half being, you guessed it, the town of Newmarket. This is a riding that’s been Progressive Conservative blue since it was created in 2007.

The local MPP, Frank Klees, was popular in the community and prominent within the PC party — he’s been an elected MPP since 1995, always in the same area (this part of Greater Toronto has been repeatedly divided up into new ridings in response to a sustained population boom, so the riding names have changed, but he’s always been somewhere near here).

He won this riding easily in 2011, one of the few PC successes in York Region, a fast-growing municipality of over a million people along Toronto’s northern border. He probably could have held it indefinitely had he not chosen to leave public life. Jane Twinney, a Newmarket town councillor, is running to succeed him, and has a good chance. This riding generally goes blue, both federally and provincially (an exception: Belinda Stronarch carried it for the Liberals in 2006 — no surprise when you consider that the Stronarch family empire, Magna, is headquartered a mile, tops, from the restaurant I now occupy). Newmarket-Aurora, and the other seats like it, are absolute must-wins for PC leader Tim Hudak if he is going to form a government. If he can’t win in places like this, he can’t win.

Greetings from Aurora, a town about 50 klicks due north of downtown Toronto. Aurora is the southern half of the riding Newmarket-Aurora, with the northern half being, you guessed it, the town of Newmarket. This is a riding that’s been Progressive Conservative blue since it was created in 2007.

The local MPP, Frank Klees, was popular in the community and prominent within the PC party — he’s been an elected MPP since 1995, always in the same area (this part of Greater Toronto has been repeatedly divided up into new ridings in response to a sustained population boom, so the riding names have changed, but he’s always been somewhere near here).

He won this riding easily in 2011, one of the few PC successes in York Region, a fast-growing municipality of over a million people along Toronto’s northern border. He probably could have held it indefinitely had he not chosen to leave public life. Jane Twinney, a Newmarket town councillor, is running to succeed him, and has a good chance. This riding generally goes blue, both federally and provincially (an exception: Belinda Stronarch carried it for the Liberals in 2006 — no surprise when you consider that the Stronarch family empire, Magna, is headquartered a mile, tops, from the restaurant I now occupy). Newmarket-Aurora, and the other seats like it, are absolute must-wins for PC leader Tim Hudak if he is going to form a government. If he can’t win in places like this, he can’t win.

Dwight Duncan, TVO talking head and former Liberal finance minister, says Tim Hudak is a great guy in person, and if he could ever project that on TV he’d be a much greater threat. Thanks Dwight. Maybe a bit late. (Dwight also has some concerns about the economy he forgot to mention when he was in charge of it).

Ontario Liberal leader Kathleen Wynne casts her ballot as her partner Jane Rounthwaite (right) looks on in Toronto on Thursday June 12, 2014. Wynne was the only major leader to vote today, both Horwath and Hudak voted in advanced polls. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Frank Gunn

In 2011 anti-Harper heads exploded when he was re-elected PM with less than 40% of the vote, i.e. 60% of Canadians voted against him, while ignoring that Dalton McGuinty was returned to power with just 38% of the 49% turnout, i.e. more than 80% of voters didn’t vote for him. If Kathleen Wynne manages to win, but with a similarly marginal mandate, will Liberals be wringing their hands again? I kind of doubt it.

Cristina Martins’ (Liberal in Davenport) camp says they are “confident” but aren’t making any predictions. She’s in a rematch against Jonah Schein, who took the riding for the NDP in 2011 by a margin of 46% to 41.4%.

Pollster John Wright had some sage words for political junkies. “Wherever the premier went yesterday, I’d have my eye on.” And it sounds like it was one mad dash across Toronto to Toronto-Danforth, Beaches-East York, Davenport, Parkdale High Park, Trinity-Spadina and Etobicoke-Lakeshore. None of which are currently held by Liberals.

From the National Post’s John Ivison at Tim Hudak’s campaign headquarters:

The Tories are hoping that the crystal chandeliers in the Mountain View community centre in Grimsby will be rattling tonight when the results start pouring in. This is normally home to the local air cadets. They were thrilled to hear that Rogers was putting in a cell tower to facilitate mobile phone reception. They were delighted to hear Cogeco was plumbing in cable. They were less pleased to learn they will be torn down and ripped out after the election.

I’m covering the 905 tonight, but I have a 416 anecdote that I think says a lot about why the NDP are so nervous in Toronto.

About a month ago, right before I started at the Post, NDP MP Craig Scott was out door knocking in my neighbourhood. He was stumping for Peter Tabuns, the Toronto—Danforth MPP. And when he reached my door, he told me something interesting.

After asking if he could count on my support (I told him I hadn’t made up my mind yet, which was true), he said that, no matter what I thought of Andrea Horvath, I should consider Tabuns anyway, because he’s a good local representative. Even then, in other words, the party had a good idea how poorly Horvath was playing in Toronto.

I’d still be surprised if Tabuns lost tonight. But I do expect the party to drop at least one seat in the Toronto core, and probably two.

If that does happen, expect the NDP to blame the Liberals’ late “a vote for Horvath is a vote for Hudak” blitz. But I think that’s backward. The NDP isn’t vulnerable in Toronto because of the Liberal campaign. The Liberals campaigned so hard here because the NDP was already vulnerable, and that’s in large part due to their leader.

Horvath backed away from the party’s core urban supporters in an effort to broaden the base and replace the Liberals as the default anti-Tory vote. Most polls suggest that hasn’t work. Now, in Toronto at least, the NDP is fighting hard just to hold on to what it is

As for the 905, like everyone, I’m anxious to see whether the NDP can keep Bramalea—Gore—Malton, a surprise pickup in 2011. Ajax—Pickering, Brampton—Springdale, Brant, and Missisauga—Erindale could all also be tight.

That’s, of course, assuming the polls are something close to right and there isn’t a giant, late breaking wave a la Alberta 2012 that either sweeps the Liberals aside or pushes them into a majority. If that happens, any number of supposedly safe seats could fall into play.