Jeffrey D. Sadow is an associate professor of political science at Louisiana State University Shreveport. If you're an elected official, political operative or anyone else upset at his views, don't go bothering LSUS or LSU System officials about that because these are his own views solely.
This publishes Sunday through Thursday with the exception of 7 holidays. Also check out his Louisiana Legislature Log especially during legislative sessions (in "Louisiana Politics Blog Roll" below).

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22.1.14

Favorite Vitter's entry defines LA's 2015 governor's race

What observers were 99.44 percent
sure about became 100 percent yesterday when Sen. David Vitter announced he
would run for Louisiana governor in 2015. He immediately becomes the
favorite and his decision and a potential win as a result dramatically alter
the state’s political landscape.

Not really for Democrats, with
one exception. This should discourage New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu from running for
governor (assuming he wins reelection this spring where he is the favorite; a
defeat most likely snuffs any thought of statewide office). Vitter’s strength
comes from his ability, unparalleled among current state Republicans, to unite
both traditional, principled conservatives and populist conservatives. Perhaps
the most populist-oriented state in the country, and certainly the most in the
South given its political culture and history, as a consequence there is a significant
Republican component among populists as well as with Democrats, which in most
places is their natural home. Not only can Vitter grab a good share of the
former, he also can pick off some of the latter, shielding them from Landrieu
or the only announced Democrat in the contest, state Rep. John Bel Edwards. Landrieu can
hope for victory only if he can corral a good portion of white populists, the
chances of which diminished considerably with Vitter’s entrance. Landrieu is
more likely to consider substituting for his sister Mary should she lose to Rep. Bill Cassidy in her reelection bid in
2014 should Vitter win in 2015 in the 2016 contest to succeed Vitter.

Also discouraging his entrance
should be the presence of state Treas. John
Kennedy, the only real competitor Vitter has for conservative populists.
While many consider that Vitter now removes Kennedy’s oxygen from the race,
Kennedy’s recent
announcement validating fundraising prowess may indicate he eventually will
run regardless of Vitter. This certainly dampens Kennedy’s chances should he
enter, but should he this creates even more competition for the populist vote.
Meanwhile, at this point Vitter had a clear path to collecting the large
majority of the principled conservative vote – despite the fact that this vote
largely allies itself with Gov. Bobby
Jindal, who does not hang with Vitter.

Vitter now in also reduces
considerably the chance that a traditional conservative whether allied with
Jindal will jump into the race. His name recognition and ability to raise funds
makes opposing him depending on that base little more than a vanity project. In
reality, the only politician better off relative to state government as a
result of this choice is the all-but-announced candidate Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne.
His base and appeal is to more moderate, often related to the business sector, conservatives,
with potential crossover to moderate Democrats. Vitter’s insertion into the
campaign erodes little his base and discourages others like Mitch Landrieu who
could eat into it.

If the field went as is regarding
competitive candidates – Vitter, Dardenne, Edwards – Vitter is at least an
even-money shot to win outright without a runoff. But if Vitter cannot do so,
then it’s even money between Dardenne and Edwards to be there with him, where
Dardenne’s chances increase the more under 50 percent Vitter gets in the
general election. And Dardenne’s chances actually improve should Kennedy sign
up, because he will take more from Vitter and Edwards than from Dardenne,
making Vitter more prone to a runoff.

However, Dardenne benefits from
not having Kennedy around in one respect: that presents a clearer choice for
Republicans disgruntled with Vitter to abandon him in Dardenne’s favor.
Throughout his two-decade-plus political career, Vitter’s take-no-prisoners
campaigning and governing styles have made some enemies among those who otherwise
agree with him largely on ideology. They will look for any conservative but
Vitter, and the populists that slough off from him as a result of Kennedy
getting in would probably just be marginally more than conservatives who head
Kennedy’s way instead of Dardenne’s. This becomes an even more all-or-nothing
proposition for Dardenne in that if Kennedy grabs too much from others to
create a runoff, he may ace out Dardenne for that runoff.

Then there’s the most likely
“what-if” scenario of a Vitter win. Probably Jindal will name a successor –
perhaps even himself if the timing’s right although he would need Vitter’s
cooperation here – and let that placeholder hang out until the term ends and
gets filled by the 2016 elections. Assuming Jindal defers for whatever reason,
likely candidates would include Rep. John Fleming, state Sen. Elbert Guillory (regardless of whether
he wins the lieutenant governor’s spot left open by Dardenne), Public Service
Commissioner Scott Angelle
(perhaps after running for Cassidy’s current post should he defeat Mary
Landrieu), and even Dardenne and the only non-GOP politician on this list, Mitch
Landrieu (should Mary lose; voters never would tolerate siblings in the U.S.
Senate from the minority party of elected state and federal officials).

It would not be entirely accurate
to say that Vitter stands
astride the field as did Jindal in 2007; Dardenne alone is a more
competitive candidate than any Jindal opponent then. But it wouldn’t be that
inaccurate either. Now, any discussion of who is governor after Jindal must
begin with Vitter, and all political calculations related to this race must
incorporate him as the largest factor.

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