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A nonprofit conservative organization thinks Scranton is the most likely candidate of Pennsylvania's struggling cities to "become the next Detroit." However, Scranton Mayor Chris Doherty and the city's Act 47 coordinator, Pennsylvania Economy League, disagree.

In the wake of Detroit recently declaring bankruptcy, the Citizens Alliance of Pennsylvania, a self-described "pro-employer, pro-taxpayer" group established in 2009, issued a report Wednesday that said, "It is reasonable to wonder which cities in Pennsylvania might be on the same path as Detroit."

n Percent of population that is employed; Scranton's and Wilkes-Barre's were 61 percent, fourth from the bottom, behind Johnstown (54 percent), Philadelphia (58) and Altoona (60); the national average is around 67 percent.

Concluding that Scranton was "least likely to survive," the organization cited the city's designation as financially distressed under state Act 47 since 1992, and last year's cash-crunch "liquidity" crisis that led to the mayor slashing workers' pay to minimum wage. Johnstown was next, followed by Harrisburg, which tried declaring bankruptcy in 2011 but was stopped by a federal judge.

"Any one of those three would be a reasonable assumption for cities to go bankrupt," said CAP Executive Director Leo Knepper. "You're kind of splitting hairs on which is in the worst position. It's kind of like asking which bird is going to go extinct next. The deciding factor for me (on Scranton) was the liquidity and cash problems. I'm not saying Scranton will go belly up by the end of year. We're saying Scranton is in the worst position financially and demographically."

PEL Executive Director Gerald Cross disputed some of CAP's methods. Pension liability and debt are paid on a tax basis, not per capita.

But population decline and low percent of workforce are more valid gauges because fewer people paying taxes with the same infrastructure creates imbalance, and a smaller percent of population employed means less wage taxes, he said. CAP's review also does not gauge the city's recent progress made in the 2012 revised Act 47 recovery plan and change in attitude of city leaders, he said.

"I really don't see them going bankrupt. I think they will solve their problems over time," Mr. Cross said. "We don't disagree with the serious nature of the (CAP) conclusion, but that Scranton is most likely to follow Detroit is far-fetched."

During last year's crisis, Mr. Doherty and city council flatly rejected the notion of seeking bankruptcy protection and he has not changed his mind. "It is far better for us to manage our way through this and it would be far more damaging to go through bankruptcy," Mr. Doherty said.

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