Two distinct COVID-19 epidemics have existed side-by-side: Community and LTC Facility Residents'.

Deaths in the community have grown linearly with time. LTCF deaths have accelerated at a much faster rate after a short delay.

(Red dots plot the Community COVID-19 deaths, according to the date on the death certificate; the brown are the LTCF Resident deaths. The most recent data points are incomplete counts - the recording of death certificates takes a little time. )

The cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths grew exponentially for the first few days, just as in New York City.

The importance of this growth cannot be understated. This initial growth points to 24 deaths a day on April 1 and 9,670 deaths a day on May 1.

After Shelter-in-Place was established, growth became linear (left graph). Initially the rate averaged more than 5 a day, and trended slightly downward (right graph). Since restrictions have been relaxed (green dots), the numbers have tended slightly upward.

The number of COVID-19 Death Certificates issued daily grew linearly up to Shelter-in-Place. If continued at this rate, ~30 deaths would be now be recorded each day.