What the broadcasters really want to know from me is what the Chancellor
is up to. Last week I was rung by the BBC as news broke that Gordon
Brown had been called back from the Middle East minutes after
landing.

I confidently predicted that the Prime Minister would just about win the
90-day detention vote. I sensed this was another Blair PR stunt,
pretending to the world that the vote was tight before claiming yet
another historic victory. It never occurred to me that 'Teflon Tony'
could so badly misjudge the mood of parliament.

I got one thing right though - Brown was furious at having to come back
so soon. The real reason he returned was that he was told by his office
on landing in Israel that the vote was lost, having heard the opposite
from whips before he left.

The Chancellor felt he couldn't afford to be away from Westminster in
the wake of a Blair defeat, having rightly concluded that that would
have been very bad PR for himself.

His spin doctors cleverly spun the line that Brown had been summoned
back to save the day yet again for the PM. This was a win-win
situation.

If the vote was won, he could take credit, and if it was lost Blair
would take the blame. And so it turned out. But the Blairites were well
prepared and moved heaven and earth to portray the defeat as a
victory.

In PR terms they did a good job and were helped by public opinion being
on the PM's side. Labour is now seen to be tougher on terrorism than the
Tories are - a sure-fire future vote winner.

So what is Brown's game? What concerns him most is the state the Labour
Party will be in when he assumes command. One of the main reasons he
never stood against Blair in the first place was because he didn't want
to have to rely on the hard left to defeat his rival. He certainly
doesn't want their support now. Loyalty, too, is important to the
Chancellor - as it is to most Labour MPs.

It's now all up to Blair as to how long he can last. The Chancellor has
said this week that the Cabinet needed to listen more. By that he meant
that Blair needed to listen. He also said the Government must continue
to implement its manifesto. If the PM tries to go back on a manifesto
pledge like he did with top-up fees in the last parliament, only then
will Brown make his move.