FIGHTING THE SHADOW OF TERRORISM IN KAZAKHSTAN

To many in Kazakhstan, Islamic
fundamentalism and global terrorism are something vague and ominous. Some political
analysts, however, are convinced that the new geopolitical situation taking shape in the
wake of the American-led war against Taliban in Afghanistan offers a rare chance to
Kazakhstan to gain a leading position in Central Asia.

Hardly a week passes by in
Kazakhstan without national television carrying images of gas-masked young soldiers of
anti-terrorist detachments or special task forces bravely crushing their imaginary enemies
on training fields.

To many in Kazakhstan, Islamic
fundamentalism and global terrorism are something vague and ominous. Some political
analysts, however, are convinced that the new geopolitical situation taking shape in the
wake of the American-led war against Taliban in Afghanistan offers a rare chance to
Kazakhstan to gain a leading position in Central Asia.

Hardly a week passes by in
Kazakhstan without national television carrying images of gas-masked young soldiers of
anti-terrorist detachments or special task forces bravely crushing their imaginary enemies
on training fields. The defense Minister never misses an opportunity to pride himself on
the "high level" of combat readiness of the military. Yet the harsh reality is
something different from routine training exercises.

When not so long ago Islamic
fundamentalists made their first attempts to infiltrate into Kyrghyzstan, the Kazakh
government chose to limit its solidarity with its neighbor to moral support rather than
rushing its troops to the troubled Batken region. Terrorist attacks in Tashkent,
reportedly masterminded by the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, were also shrugged off as
an internal affair of the neighbor. But today officials in government seem to understand
that Kazakhstan cannot distance itself from the global anti-terrorist campaign. More than
that, some analysts predict political gains to be derived by Kazakhstan from the present
situation. Closer ties with the countries of the Western anti-terrorist coalition can
boost the military infrastructure and modernization of the army. According to Dosym Satpayev, director of the
Risk Assessment Group and a political scientist from the Institute of War and Peace, it is
yet uncertain who will be the winner in this war against terrorism, but if and when
Kazakhstan gains economic and political dominance in Central Asia it will become a really
powerful nation to be respected by superpowers.

Meanwhile Kazakhstan has made
significant steps in the recent past to mend its relations with Central Asian countries.
In April, Kazakhstan hosted a meeting of the border control authorities from
member-countries of the Shanghai Cooperative Organization, during which concerted actions
against terrorism were discussed. On September 9 in Astana, the presidents of Kazakhstan
and Uzbekistan finalized a border delimitation agreement, removing the last psychological
hurdle in bilateral relations. Two days earlier, Kazakhstan made a symbolic gesture of
goodwill, handing over to Uzbek security forces the Malayev brothers, Uzbek nationals
wanted for setting off bombs in Tashkent in the spring of 1999. Significantly, before
their detention, curiously timed to the signing of the final Border Delimitation
Agreement, the suspects spent three years in hiding in Kazakhstan undisturbed by the
police, using false passports given by bribed authorities.

No less important for Kazakhstan is
to strike the right balance of relations with the U.S., China and Russia. There has been
some softening of the otherwise adamant Russian stand and it seems to have put up with the
American military presence in Central Asia. China, having enough to deal with the unruly
separatists in East Turkestan can hardly exert a significant influence in the region for
now. Quite recently, policy makers in Kazakhstan jealously murmured about the bright
economic and military prospect opened for Uzbekistan which offered its airfields to
American plains. The same American jets flying missions to Afghanistan use the airspace of
Kazakhstan. Besides, the U.S. is pouring in millions of dollars to provide border guards
of Kazakhstan with the most sophisticated military equipment, including night-vision
binoculars, various types of detectors.

While the military are restlessly
haunted by the ghost of long-bearded gun-toting fundamentalists, recent opinion polls
conducted by the Institute of Comparative Social Studies "Tsessy-Kazakhstan"
revealed that a wide section of the population is not much alarmed at the possible
infiltration of terrorists into the country. 66,7% of the respondents admitted that the
extremist or terrorist attacks could be provoked if the authorities commit serious errors
in domestic and foreign policy, but 16,7% of the questioned think that there is no threat
of terrorism in Kazakhstan.

Probably none of the respondents has
ever seen a living terrorist and is not likely to see one. But the potential threat is
still there. Promoting public awareness in turbulent Central Asia may be more important
than fighting imaginary terrorists.

The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst is a biweekly publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, a Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center affiliated with the American Foreign Policy Council, Washington DC., and the Institute for Security and Development Policy, Stockholm. For 15 years, the Analyst has brought cutting edge analysis of the region geared toward a practitioner audience.