Climate change, human land use and future fires in the Amazon

by

Mark Cochrane and Christopher Barber

,

Global Change Biology

States that the biodiversity-rich Amazon forest is a region of growing concern because many global climate model (GCM) scenarios of climate change forecast reduced precipitation and, in some cases, coupled vegetation models predict dieback of the forest

States that to date (in 2008), fires have generally been spatially co-located with road networks and associated human land use because almost all fires in this region are anthropogenic in origin

Climate change, if severe enough, could alter this situation, potentially changing the fire regime to one of increased fire frequency and severity for vast portions of the Amazon forest

States that high moisture contents and dense canopies have historically made Amazonian forests extremely resistant to fire spread

Anticipates that climate will affect the fire situation in the Amazon directly, through changes in temperature and precipitation, and indirectly, through climate-forced changes in vegetation composition and structure

Holds that the frequency of drought will be a prime determinant of both how often forest fires occur and how extensive they become

Argues that fire risk management needs to take into account landscape configuration, land cover types and forest disturbance history as well as climate and weather