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Monday, June 28, 2010

Theory on the Dubai Assassination

In a recent article I read, the US has this theory that the alleged Mossad hit of Hamas' man Mahmoud al-Mabhouh in Dubai was all probably just a kidnapping incident turned sour. The Mossad it says was planning to kidnap the Hamas arms dealer and use him as an exchange Gilad Shalit, an Israeli prisoner of Hamas.

In my opinion such a theory is not consistent if we paint the Mossad as a professional spy institution. The Mossad did not get to this status by being emotional and vindictive as what other thoeries suggests. As the months go by, I am becoming more skeptical if this is truly a Mossad or even a CIA hit. If one sees it in terms of cost and benefit analysis, it does seem that keeping Mahmoud al-Mabhouh alive is a bigger advantage for Hamas at that point. When you think about it, by being able to track al-Mabhouh without the latter noticing, the Mossad are now sitting on a goldmine of information on the inner workings of the triumvirate that is Iran, Hamas and Dubai. The Mossad knows that they have an economic connection and Dubai is a conduit in the Iran, Hamas weapons supply. But this time they will have the chance to know the minute details of these transactions and possibly how to incapacitate it altogether.

If one thinks about it very carefully, what will it benefit the Mossad if it kills this one man? Hamas can easily replace him with someone else. It also gives the enemies of Israel the time to think of ways to adjust their operations and get a bird's eye view on how the Mossad operates!

One would then ask the consequential question, if the Mossad did not do this, then why don't they flat out deny it? Just like any spy organization, the Mossad has to clothe itself with a sense of enigma. A 'neither confrirm nor deny" policy at this point more than ever keeps the world guessing and us observers make up theories like in this article.