NFL Week 10 Expert Picks Against The Spread

Cleveland Browns (0-8) at Detroit Lions (4-4)

The Browns are still in the mud and this weekend won’t change things because of their problems at the quarterback position.

The Lions are in the hunt for the NFC north title, so they’ll want to make quick work of this game.

Detroit is fresh off a win over the Packers when they also covered. While I wouldn’t normally bet against the spread on the Lions because they’re 1-5 ATS in their last six home games, that they’re playing the Browns gives me some confidence.

Browns vs Lions Betting Trends

Cleveland is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games

Detroit is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games

Pick: Lions -11

N.Y. Jets (4-5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-6)

When: November 12, 2017, 1:00 PM ET

Where: Raymond James Stadium

Spread: Jets -2.5

Jameis Winston is injured, so the Buccaneers will go with Ryan Fitzpatrick to lead the offense.

This means Fitzpatrick will be facing his old team which will make it an interesting game.

However, the Buccaneers are too inconsistent for me to stake my money on them. They’re now 1-6-1 ATS and dead last in the NFC south, which says a lot of the season they’re having.

Not that I like the Jets much, but at least they’ve dug in and played surprisingly well this season. They’re fresh off their fourth win of the season and their sixth cover of their last seven games.

Jets vs Buccaneers Betting Trends

NY Jets is 6-0-1 ATS in its last 7 games

Tampa Bay is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

Pick: Jets -2.5

Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2) at Indianapolis Colts (3-6)

When: November 12, 2017, 1:00 PM ET

Where: Lucas Oil Stadium

Spread: Steelers -10

With a week’s rest, the Steelers should be ready to take on the Colts.

I believe Pittsburgh’s offense can let loose a passing attack with JuJu Smith-Schuster, who should allow them to open up the field. And, their defense is as solid as ever.

Though I’m aware the Steelers couldn’t cover against the Browns, when they were giving away 10-points, they’ve gone 5-2 ATS since. They’ve also covered on eight of their last 11 road games.

Steelers vs Colts Betting Trends

Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

Indianapolis is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games when playing Pittsburgh

Pick: Steelers -11

L.A. Chargers (3-5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (5-3)

When: November 12, 2017, 1:00 PM ET

Where: EverBank Field

Spread: Jaguars -3.5

The Chargers will have problems with the pass against this defense which means they’ll need running back Melvin Gordon to jump in the fray.

The Jaguars just crushed the Bengals 23-7 last week and they’ve only allowed 3.5 points per game over their last two games, moving their ATS total to 5-3.

However, the Chargers have won and covered on all four games these two have played. I like those stats and believe L.A will get the job done once more.

Chargers vs Jaguars Betting Trends

LA Chargers is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Jacksonville

Jacksonville is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games

Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins

When: November 12, 2017, 1:00 PM ET

Where: FedExField

Spread: Vikings -1.5

The Vikings still have Case Keenum as quarterback but they’ve had a week’s rest time.

The Redskins have a banged up offensive line and are therefore vulnerable however it’s likely they’ll struggle to put up points.

Also, Washington heads into this game as the underdog once more and they haven’t been able to cover but once in their last six home games and is 1-5 ATS over their previous six games.

Meanwhile, the Vikings have covered on 36 opportunities out of 51 games overall.

Vikings vs Redskins Betting Trends

Minnesota is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Washington

Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

Green Bay Packers (4-4) at Chicago Bears (3-5)

When: November 12, 2017, 1:00 PM ET

Where: Soldier Field

Spread: Bears -5.5

The Packers don’t play well in Soldier Field and it’ll be even harder for them to get going with Brett Hundley leading the offense.

That the line opened at 3 but quickly moved to 5 should tell you something as well. Since losing Aaron Rodgers the Packers lost their next two games and are now 3-5 ATS this year.

Meanwhile, the Bears are fresh off their bye which means they’re well-rested and shouldn’t have many problems in covering this game.

Packers vs Bears Betting Trends

Green Bay is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games

Chicago is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games

Pick: Bears -5.5

New Orleans Saints (6-2) at Buffalo Bills (5-3)

When: November 12, 2017, 1:00 PM ET

Where: New Era Field

Spread: Saints -3

The Saints are on a 6-win roll and there aren’t any signs they’re going to slow down.

The Bills meanwhile are also playing well, except for their recent loss to the Jets and they’re 4-0 at home this year.

Weather conditions in Buffalo could be a factor that favors the Bills in this game, but the Saints have done well both in London and Green Bay.

I still think New Orleans has the edge and should be able to come out with another win.

Saints vs Bills Betting Trends

New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games

Buffalo is 6-9-3 ATS in its last 18 games

Pick: Saints -3

Cincinnati Bengals (3-5) at Tennessee Titans (5-3)

When: November 12, 2017, 1:00 PM ET

Where: Nissan Stadium

Spread: Titans -4.5

These squads are pretty evenly matched, but the Titans hold the slight edge because they’re playing at home.

The Bengals’ offense is good, but their offensive line sometimes struggles and this leads to inconsistent play. Cincinnati has the worst-rated total offense ad rushing offense in the NFL and this doesn’t give me much confidence.

However, the Bengals’ defense could carry them forward and limit the Titans passing game. Tennessee will struggle to pass the ball, but I believe they’ll get the job done.

Bengals vs Titans Betting Trends

Cincinnati is 8-14-1 SU in its last 23 games

Tennessee is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games

Pick: Titans -4.5

Houston Texans (3-5) at L.A. Rams (6-2)

When: November 12, 2017, 4:05 PM ET

Where: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum

Spread: Rams -11.5

The Rams are back home after a month on the road and they should be able to get going on offense.

However, the spread seems high at 11.5-points. Can the Rams cover?

Sean McVay leads the league’s top-scoring team, but even so, I think they’ll be hard pressed to run away from the Texans by so many points.

Houston has already found themselves in this position and covered against the Patriots. I think they can stay close

Texans vs Rams Betting Trends

Houston is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games

LA Rams is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

Pick: Texans +11.5

Dallas Cowboys (5-3) at Atlanta Falcons (4-4)

When: November 12, 2017, 4:05 PM ET

Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Spread: Falcons -3

The Falcons aren’t last year’s Super Bowl contender team. They struggled against the Panthers and Dallas is a much more physical team which means they’ll struggle once more.

The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last five games, while the Falcons are 0-4 after a SU loss.

The Falcons are the favorites, but I believe they’ll be upset by the Cowboys.

Cowboys vs Falcons Betting Trends

Dallas is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games

Atlanta is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games

N.Y. Giants (1-7) at San Francisco 49ers (0-9)

When: November 12, 2017, 4:25 PM E

Where: Levi's Stadium

Spread: Giants -2.5

The Giants head into this game as the favorites despite the game being played in San Francisco.

Apart from their myriad struggles, the 49ers are also a hobbled team due to injuries.

The Giants are 4-1 ATs in their last five games played in San Francisco and they’re also 5-0 in their last five road games vs a team with a losing home record.

Giants vs 49ers Betting Trends

NY Giants is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games

San Francisco is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

Pick: Giants -2.5

New England Patriots (6-2) at Denver Broncos (3-5)

When: November 12, 2017, 8:30 PM ET

Where: Sports Authority Field at Mile High

Spread: Patriots -7.5

This game has the makings of a bloodbath. The Patriots are well rested and they’ll come out gunning.

Tom Brady hasn’t put up as many points as he did at the beginning of the season, but the rest time will have him looking to get back up there.

The Broncos’ defense is as good as ever, but they’ll have a hard time stopping the Patriots not beating them by 7.5 points.

The spread looks off and in my mind it should be at least double-digits.

Patriots vs Broncos Betting Trends

New England is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games

Denver is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games

Pick: Patriots -7.5

Miami Dolphins (4-4) at Carolina Panthers (6-3)

When: November 12, 2017, 8:30 PM ET

Where: Bank of America Stadium

Spread: Panthers -10

The Panthers’ offense is up and down, but the defense is solid which makes it a balanced team.

The Dolphins are inconsistent at best and won’t be able to get anything going in Bank of America Stadium.

Despite the fact the Panthers haven’t had much luck with this AFC East team, they’ll win this one.

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