AFAP manages the Australian-Pacific Centre for Emergency and Disaster Information (APCEDI) to provide news on natural disaster events in the Asia-Pacific region and to help with rapid disaster response assessment. This was originally a communications network that was activated during a disaster to disseminate information to our Asia-Pacific NGO offices. Now APCEDI has a much wider application across the Asia-Pacific Region.

Overnight, Cyclone Xavier weakened rapidly due to increased shear and lower water temperatures. It is now a weak tropical storm and will likely be downgraded to a tropical depression later today. This continues to be good news for Vanuatu, as it looks likely to miss the major effects of this once powerful cyclone. However, Xavier is still causing rough seas, beach erosion and intermittent squalls especially to eastern islands and east and south-facing coasts.

Forecasters continue to predict a western turn for the storm, and it has in fact started a slow southwesterly turn. This will bring the remnants of Xavier over Northern and Central Vanuatu. This will cause localised heavy rain and squalls, but no major damage is now being forecast although localised flooding and landslides are still possible in areas with intense rainfall.

Even though the storm is weakening residents of Northern and Central Vanuatu Islands especially Santo, Maewo, Ambae, Ambrym, Epi, the Shepherd Islands, and Efate should continue to monitor and heed local Government alerts and listen to news broadcasts for updates. It is possible, although unlikely, that the storm could re-intensify.

Tropical Cyclone Xavier 01F [987hPa] centre was located near 16.0 South 171.0 East at 251800 UTC. Position poor based on MTSAT EIR with animation and recent TRMM/SSMI passes. Cyclone moving southwest at about 05 knots but expected to curve west. Maximum 10-minute average winds near the centre estimated at about 45 knots, decreasing to 30 knots in the next 12 hours.

FORECAST:12hrs valid at 260600 UTC near 15.7S 170.1E mov W 05kt with 30kt close to centre. 24hrs valid at 261800 UTC near 15.9S 168.8E mov W 06kt with 20kt close to centre.

OUTLOOK:36hrs valid at 270600 UTC near 15.5S 167.2E mov W 08kt with 15kt close to centre.48hrs valid at 271800 UTC near 15.2S 165.7E mov W 07kt with 15kt close to centre.

On its projected track the cyclone is expected to weaken into a depression in the next 6 to 12 hours and is no longer posing a threat to Efate, Erromango and Tanna. A building high pressure system to the south of Vanuatu and New Caledonia is expected to steer the weakening depression westwards over Vanuatu in the next 24 to 36 hours. Expect rain with occasional heavy falls to continue. Fresh to strong and gusty east to southeast winds. Rough to very rough seas and damaging heavy swells.

This will be the final Special Advisory for Vanuatu on Tropical Cyclone Xavier unless the situation changes.

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This will be the last APCEDI report in Cyclone Xavier unless it re-intensifies or otherwise warrents additional information to be reported.

APCEDI

APCEDI is a service of AFAP
- the Australian Foundation for the Peoples of Asia and the Pacific and FSPI
- the Foundation for the Peoples of the South Pacific International.

Disclaimer: This service provides indicative alert information
and should only be construed in conjunction with other sources of information
such as local and regional weather services. Reports are as accurate as possible,
but as the information is indicative, external confirmation should be sought.