Saturday, October 31, 2009

The Veteran was concerned to note that Winston First rated 2.1% in the latest Royal New Zealand Herald poll as preferred Prime Minister. So much so that he commissioned, at great personal expense, a poll to probe what goes to make a 'true believer' The results ...................

1. 82% are over age 70.2. 11% are over age 99.3. 27% believe that the nice Mr Muldoon should make way for Winston.4. 5% believe that Winston is the Prime Minister.5. 43% say they aren't racist but they wouldn't want their grandchild to marry into Maoridom.6. 14% believe that Winston isn't Maori.7. A staggering 69% believe in the A + B theorem.8. Of those, 54% believe if Social Credit works, no-one else will have to.9. 22% drive Skodas.10. 41% believe that sleeping in the raw is deviant.11. 34% believe that the Moon landings were faked.12. 3% think Elvis is alive and living in Taihape.13. 0.016% claim to be Elvis.14. 7% pick Keith Holyoake as the current Governor General.15. 2% are virgins16. 44% wear (grey) slip on (synthetic leather) shoes.17. 93% of the workers in an illegal distillery in the Catlins swear by him.18. 14% of those polled in the Rodney District want Winston to stand for Mayor (in W(h)anganui)19. 81% of those polled in W(h)anganui want Winston to stand for Mayor in their city.20. 17% think Winston is God.21. 2% think God thinks Winston's God.

For some time now I have lamented the fact that major issue are overlooked while many unnecessary bills come to me for consideration. Water reform, prison reform, and health care are major issues my Administration has brought to the table, but the Legislature just kicks the can down the alley.

Yet another legislative year has come and gone without the major reforms Californians overwhelmingly deserve. In light of this, and after careful consideration, I believe it is unnecessary to sign this measure at this time.

The left continues to get rucked over by the rolling maul of GNactionalMP.

The first Herald Digipoll since the election confirms other recent polls will National on 57.5% and a staggering 80% approval for its economic management. John Key rightly acknowledges Bill English's performance. Whaleoil, take note.

The Greens fail to make the cut and Labour picks up their lost votes to stagger up to 32%.

Remember all those Labour attacks on Paula Bennett? They worked. She's the rated THE most effective minister in cabinet.

A political party illegally spending $800K in an election campaign via the taxpayers and then retrospectively validating its unlawful actions OR a MP and Minister of the Crown legally claiming traveling expenses for his partner via the taxpayers?

Do you remember the extraordinary accusations levelled against the life insurance industry by know-all commentator Garth Morgan? How they were all a bunch of crooks manipulating unit prices and bonus levels to remove policy holders funds and divert them into the pockets of the evil shareholders - or words to that effect. (I can't find the actual piece.)

Gareth Morgan's funds, which were included in a KiwiSaver survey for the first time, came out at the bottom or close to it in every category they are in over one year.

Gareth Morgan's conservative KiwiSaver fund was 13th out of 14 conservative funds over one year with a return of 3.69 per cent and bottom out of 21 funds in the balanced sector with a return of -0.20 per cent.

In the aggressive growth fund category Gareth Morgan's fund was third from the bottom on -5.03 per cent per over one year behind AMP's aggressive fund, which was -9.76 per cent and First NZ Capital's Aggressive Kiwi Fund, on -8.66 per cent.

According to the Herald's Patrick Gowerit should not take five years for parliament to enact legislation to give police the powers they need to crack down on organised crime.

"The measure was introduced to Parliament by Labour almost five years ago but has only finally wriggled its way into law.

That it has taken so long is an indictment on the politicians who have prevaricated rather than the police officers who have long made it clear they were hamstrung when dealing with clever criminals."

He's right, of course, but he forgets that the Labour gummint of those very well organised criminals Clark and Cullen had other priorities. More important things to do. Far more important.

They were too busy arranging the retrospective legislation to cover their own theft of public money; preoccupied with the complexities of the Electoral Finance Bill and its crushing of public dissent; distracted by the need to arrange the politicisation of the police and all arms of the public service; otherwise engaged in vilifying the exclusive brethren.

Adolf is grateful to Mr Gower for reminding us what a particularly evil and malevolent cult it was that ran the country from 1999 to 2008.

Bill English was attacked in parliament's question time on Wednesday by the drama queen Cunliffe who questioned his appearance in a TVNZ programme on the economy. His reply was instructive and devastating. It went something like this (I haven't seen the Hansard.)

"Well, Mr Speaker, TVNZ could have asked Mr Cunliffe to appear or they could have asked Mr Hughs to appear but they didn't. They asked the Minister of Finance."

Update: Here's the real thing:

"Hon BILL ENGLISH: All decisions about putting together the promotion and the use of it are being made by Television New Zealand (TVNZ), as I understand it. That is the normal relationship that politicians have with TVNZ. It could, of course, have chosen that member to front it, but it did not. It could have chosen Mr Goff to front it, but it did not. I think the reasons are pretty obvious."

Yesterday I watched Cunliffe actually wiping spittle off his chin as he engaged in over egged outrage about some puny matter. He who would valiant be!

Update:Since the Reserve Bank announcement this morning the Kiwi has dropped a whole cent against the $US and three quarters of a cent against the $A. Good news for exporters. Good news for all New Zealand.

Adolf started to read a spittle flecked rant by Cactus and gave up after the first paragraph.

For a more rational analysis, one could do no better than look to the governor of the Reserve Bank who had this to say when he announced today's decision to leave interest rates unchanged for the best part of a year :-

"In New Zealand, the housing market has reversed some of the decline in prices experienced over the past couple of years and a very gradual increase in household spending appears to be taking place. Government spending is also supporting activity. Business spending, however, remains weak and credit growth is very subdued."

If the governor and the finance minister took advice from Cactus and her shrieking friends from the far right, by now we would have blown our economy out of the water by overloading it with unemployed ex civil servants with no job opportunities in the private sector.

It's all to do with timing and the right time to slash the public service is when private industry is ready to soak up the drones and put them to productive work rather than simply transfer them from the public sector payroll to the WINZ payroll.

The shouters seem to ignore John Key's oft repeated statement that he does not intend to make wide ranging cuts 'during a recession.' That's the right call. The fundamentalists of the right should learn to be patient and see what happens when we actually come out of recession.

Labour's latest recycled chief strategist has announced that the Losers Party is to continue attacking Bill English over his housing arrangements. This, despite the AG's report (requested by Labour, I think?) revealing that Mr English acted entirely correctly and upon advice tendered to him by parliamentary officials.

With this latest attack, all people see is another tired face from the failed party of the past. Hodgkins.

Adolf is planning an address to his church based on the theme:-

'Everybody wants forgiveness but nobody wants to repent.'

Herein lies the philosophical scotoma which is preventing Labour from making any progress whatsoever. They are like the New York Times and CNN where bankruptcy seems preferable to giving up their failed political bias.

Labour has not truly repented but somehow it expects to enter the kingdom of electoral heaven.

The fundamental basis of Christianity is the opportunity for people to change their lives for the better, without penalty, if they will simply resolve to put aside the bad behavior of the past. There is no price to pay, no preset conditions to meet and the offer is made to all. All their past misdemeanors are written off and they get a new start. For free.

Repentance is described as 'a feeling of sincere and genuine regret or remorse.' It is firmly embedded in our legal system where judges have flexibility in sentencing depending on the extent of remorse shown by the guilty perpetrator. Yet somehow Labour shows not the slightest sign of change. They cling to the attitudes of the past. They continue the abhorrent behavior for which people rejected them. In recent weeks they have been caught out in blatant lying and theft of public money and now they continue with a futile attack on the country's finance minister.

Electoral redemption requires Labour to act like a born again Christian. Politically and electorally they must publicly confess their sins and make a true gesture of repentance. It's not very difficult but until they do they will not go anywhere but down.

When a person decides to be a Christian, he or she stands up in front of a congregation, makes a public statement of faith and promises to do his or her best to follow the teachings of Jesus as set out in the gospels. That person is immediately and warmly welcomed by the congregation. He or she is said to have been metaphorically born again. To have started a new life.

When will we see Labour's latter day Moses? Who will it be who leads them out of Egypt into the promised land of electoral milk and honey? Who will be their Messiah? Will it be the carpenter's son from just down the road?

Labour needs to call a press conference at the close of a special retreat for all MPs and party officials and present for all to see, the parade of Helen Clark remnants declaring that they recognise the policies and attitudes of the past were wrong, making a commitment to search for new policies and develop positive attitudes, promising to work in the interests of all New Zealanders and concluding by singing the national anthem. Then, they might just see a resurgence in the polls.

It would be too much to expect that they might publicly nail a photo shopped effigy of the Bilious Bitch to a cross.

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

It is wrong for political pollsters to lie about who they represent and wrong for a politician to pretend no knowledge of activities he is orchestrating from his parliamentary office.

A politician who cannot see that he has outlasted his use-by date. The politician concerned is former Labour Cabinet minister Rick Barker.

Yes, there are more than a few who have outlasted their use by dates.

He suggested the volunteers use false names when making the calls, and, when questioned by a reporter about the operation, he said: "I don't know what you're talking about."

It was only when the reporter revealed a thorough knowledge of the subterfuge that Mr Barker admitted its existence and his role in it.

That is not acceptable. Truth is not a negotiable commodity.

It always was for Helen Clark's version of Labour whose proud tradition of lying first continues in the son she never had, Darren Hughs.

".......senior Labour whip Darren Hughes, who is fast building an unwanted reputation for himself as an apologist for indefensible behaviour on the part of his colleagues.

"I'm sure that half the people who try to sell us things on telemarketing aren't giving us their real names," he said by way of justification.

He could have added that noms de guerre are commonly employed in several other professions – prostitution and pole dancing being just two – but he and Mr Goff would be advised to consider what sort of company they and their colleagues wish to keep."

Ouch, double ouch.

".....but his conduct also hints at a deeper malaise within the Labour Party. It is a malaise composed, in equal parts, of arrogance, bitterness and sloth......

......Labour's MPs resemble grumpy, disinherited members of the landed gentry who have been turfed out of their comfy gentlemen's club for not paying their subscriptions and are trying to fast talk their way back in past the doorman."

The chronicle of Cameron Slater's dispute with his insurer over an income protection claim has been widely publicised over at Whaleoil's place and at Farrar's troll farm. Apart from observing that such public discussion has likely been unhelpful in the extreme, Adolf does not intend to canvass opinions on the dispute as he is too close to both parties.

What HAS surprised me is the revelation in comments threads that a number of bloggers feel that their blogging activities have been therapeutic during their own professionally diagnosed or self perceived bouts of depression. This may well partly explain why some very good blogs fold up after a relatively short time.

IV2 told this story in some detail, as did Blair M. Good on them for being forthright. Adolf well remembers the first blog he ever read, that of one Gordon King- nzpundit, and looking back wonders if he too was using his blog as a recovery from some personal disaster. I recall him mentioning at some stage that his blog 'kept him alive during a difficult patch' or some such. As his paua forming activities took hold his blog faded.

Reading some of the symptoms of depression, Adolf would conclude that almost every person is likely at sometime in his or her life to have experienced Churchill's black dog. Just didn't know what it was. My eighty year old uncle who had an extremely successful career and stable personal life, was diagnosed at the age of 78. For two years his wife struggled before somebody woke up.

I must confess, Adolf does not perceive any such personal advantages from his puny blogging efforts. However, it is not so easy to maintain one's enthusiasm when there is no serious political contest in the offing and when the enemy is so completely in disarray.

I'm eternally grateful to my colleagues at No Minister for it is their intermittent gems which keep the place going.

She then breathlessly compared the ACC system to other moments in New Zealand history like the emancipation of women, being nuclear weapons free and a process to settle Treaty grievances.

Well, that's a bit like me saying that the introduction of Goods and Service Tax makes me proud to live in Godzone as well, or perhaps, that the introduction of GST is right up there with Rutherford splitting the atom or winning the America's Cup in 1995.

It's a bit hard to take Misa seriously when she goes around comparing truly great moments in NZ history with the introduction of an insurance regime, particularly one which has morphed into an unwieldy and expensive state-run mess.

Misa should think about other reasons why NZ is a great place to live, such as the apparent abundance of hard working people who are propping up her fabulous ACC regime with ever increasing premiums.

I'm not yet convinced that the ACC system is broken to the point that it should be done away with. But I am failing to understand why businesses aren't allowed to contract out of ACC for the private provision of insurance. Misa makes the point that private insurance won't necessarily be any cheaper, but then, it may offer a better service that meets requirements more appropriately for those businesses - faster turnaround and superior care. It's a good thing that National and ACT are working to deliver this.

What other seminal moments in New Zealand non-history make you proud to live here? The punching of Rod Vaughan by Bob Jones? The moment Naomi Lange wore a pink cardigan to meet the Queen, or maybe even the moment in which Inland Revenue's forms were designed in that elegant shade of light blue?

Sunday, October 25, 2009

Garth is 73. He still flys around the world competing in Ironman triathlons. He is a big donor and supporter of the sport in Auckland and a few years ago completed the ultra enduro around Taupo bike race: four times around the lake - 640K's! It took him almost 24 hrs I recall.

Anyhow, there is Challenge Wanaka in Queenstown in January. It is part of the challenge series of Iron distance triathlons with the biggest one being Challenge Roth in Germany in June/July. Garth has finished that one a few times.

This year at Challenge Queenstown, Garth is donating a travel subsidy to Challenge Roth 2010, worth $10,000 to the first septuagenarian team to cross the line at Challenge Wanaka before the course cut-off at 11.30pm. The entry fee for the event in Germany will be provided by Challenge. So basically, the 70yr olds get the chance to compete in Germay for free with only accommodation to pay for.

"In the twilight years of my triathlon career I am fortunate I can still swim, bike and run for long periods of time," said Barfoot. "Not many of my age group are so fortunate, but there are many who can do so in just one of those disciplines. My gesture is to enable three of them to participate overseas in an internationally recognized event and hopefully to share the wonderful experiences that I've had through getting out of my comfort zone."

If you're a follower of triathlon, Garth is just the bees knees. And yes, he is the Barfoot from the legendary real estate firm.

Nice one Garth. You're a bloody legend, and that term is not used lightly on you.

It is reliably reported that Chris Carter went to church this morning to give thanks to God that the Labour Party polling fiasco has knocked his indiscretions off the front page.

So, what have we got ..... Labour is conducting polling from it's parliamentary offices funded from out of the Leaders budget (no big deal, probably all political parties have done this in some shape and form).

The Hon Rick Barker is running the show (well someone has to).

In addition to using Labour's parliamentary staffers to do the hard yards they also managed to recruit a member of the Green Party (pretty dumb move #1).

Barker tells those manning the phone banks to lie about their names and who they are working for - suggests a non existent company called Data Research (gueez Wayne, every time I've been polled the caller uses his/her first name so no big deal and one can understand why they wouldn't want to identify as Labour but to lie about it is dumb move #2)

When Barker is challenged on the operation he denies it (lie #2 and dumb move #3)

When Labour Whip Hughes is asked about it he defends the operation (dumb move #4)

When Goff is challenged over it he pulls the rug from under Hughes' feet and sez the whole thing is a mistake and wouldn't happen again (apart from making Hughes look like a dork was Goff saying the polling was a mistake or was he referring to Labour being caught out?)

Then there is the position of the Party President who was reported as being upset (over being kept out of the loop as per the NZ First Party President - over the funding donation scandal - or being caught out?)

Labour's Finance Minister, Bill English, (pictured above) has spoken of the "inequity and unfairness" of the tax system.

In a speech largely aimed at "those rich pricks from ACT and National, you know, the John Key types", English has signalled that any changes to the tax system would be based on "equity and fairness" because large-scale "legitimate avoidance behaviour by higher-income earners undermined the goodwill of lower-income earners."

English has been heard to complain to the Prime Minister, Annette King, that "it's quite telling that there has been virtually no growth in the number of people paying tax on $1 million of annual income, since the 39 cent top personal tax rate was introduced 10 years ago.

"Annette, as a country, we want families, businesses, accountants and lawyers looking at how to unlock greater income and productivity, not working out how to minimise their tax."

When asked how people keeping more of their own money to employ staff, invest, save or spend in the economy was "unproductive" or "locked up money" English was non-committal merely saying "look, we are borrowing $250 million per week. How do you expect us to pay that back, with interest, unless we unlock and grab all that unproductive money locked up and owned by rich pricks?

National's opposition finance spokesperson, Nick Smith, refused to comment today, merely referring enquirers to the party's website which he said contained its vision, values and philosophies. When told by reporters that the website was broke and malfunctional, Smith gave a wry look at offered one word: touche.

This newspaper then found twowebsites that offered real comment on the matter, one of which gave an external debt meter based on the Labour government's borrowing.

"Trevor Mallard was a distraction sitting behind Goff all through his speech, visibly chewing gum like some sort of goon from central casting.

Maybe Labour's image consultants could have a word with their in-house gangster next time he accompanies his new leader."

Yes, there he is, Vladimir, the goon from central casting.

Goff doesn't come off much better either:-

"I couldn't help feeling Goff's delivery was a campaign stump speech written by one of his staff. Unlike Key, it felt that he was talking at the audience rather than to it.......

........Half of the conference were probably members of Goff's party but at the end of his speech Goff had to settle for polite applause. Goff has a big job ahead of him. Even his fan base can't get excited."

Not only stealing but hiding their identity. That's what happens when your brand has been debauched and you've got your tail between your legs. No money, no morale, no morals.

Adolf hopes Mr Speaker will send a stern letter to the party secretary, requiring him to refund parliamentary services the cost of the three series of polling admitted to in this Herald piece. That is - nominal hire of office space, line rental, cost of toll calls and the value of any other freebies used by this fool Barker and his team

Saturday, October 24, 2009

The next move should be to sack the entire team and start again. That's effectively what Bobby Simpson did when Australian cricket was at its nadir after the captaincy of the ineffectual and tearful Kim Hughs.

The real giveaway was in the penultimate paragraph.

"Moles, 48, was surprisingly chosen as John Bracewell's successor last November after a number of higher profile candidates declined the appointment."

Who'd want to risk his career by coaching a bunch of losers with bad attitude?

The latest gaffe by Chris Carter comparing John Key to Benito Mussolini is a graphic illustration why Labour is trending south in the polls at a rate of knots.

This man is 'their' foreign affairs spokesman. Do they really expect foreign governments to take him (or Labour) seriously?

Ok, Labour smartly removed his post from their website and hauled him in for a slap on the hand with a wet bus ticket but the damage is done. He is seen as a motormouth and not a very intelligent motormouth at that.

Guess the problem for Goff is that Carter is the darling of the Left and Rainbow Wings of the Labour Party and that he (Goff) can't afford a bust up with them as the summer BBQ season beckons.

Trouble is, it's an election promise National never made. It's one Labour has invented.

Goff is trying to somehow conflate the real election promise which was 'no asset sales in the first term' into something like 'no competition for ACC in the first term.' No wonder people just are not listening to Labour. They are flat out liars.

This sort of nuancing might go down well in university staff rooms and student union meetings but real people recognise bullshit when they see it. One thing is for sure, as far as election promise goes, Labour has none.

For all to see, here is the real election promise, made by National.

From an August 2008 issue of NBR:-

The main points of the policy are:

* Investigate opening the Work Account to competition;

* Conduct a full stock-take of the various components of the ACC scheme, evaluate progress to full funding and identify areas of cross-subsidy or cost-shifting and underfunding of newly legislated entitlements; and

* Investigate the introduction of an independent disputes tribunal to end ACC's dual role of judge and jury on disputed claims.

Nowhere is there even the remotest possible inference that there might be a hint of selling off ACC.

The timing. The first results will be published in two years time. Adolf wonders if that will just happen to be a few months before a general election. Just to remind parents that Labour would rather they didn't know how little Johnny's school was doing.

The throw away phrase. "...the standards would be introduced in all English-based primary and intermediate schools..."

Is there some other type of school? Oh yes, silly me. KuraKaupapa. So why on earth are they not required to adhere to some decent standards?

The best part of all is that the responsibility for publishing the results lies with trustees, not principals. The trustees will be personally liable under the provisions of the TrusteesAct if they fail to publish so they will have no hesitation in firing teachers who attempt to sabotage the process.

A theme I heard several times from right-wing bloggers during the term of the last govt was that left-wing bloggers were simply lapdogs who made excuses for any kind of left-wing bullshit behaviour, no matter how outrageous it was. When a right-wing govt was achieved, such sycophancy would stop, as the right was willing to stand up against bad behaviour by its own side, unlike the degenerate "socialists."

We've seen just how accurate that view wasn't recently with a number of cases:

1. Ministers Rodney Hide and Heather Roy are attempting to make people affected by their portfolios put money into the ACT Party coffers if they want to hear the Minister's intentions for this area. It doesn't take much imagination to realise the kind of things right-wing bloggers would have written about this if Ministers in the previous govt were doing it, so presumably there'll be no excuses for it under this govt, right? Er, wrong. According to Cactus Kate, it's perfectly alright because the Party gets the money, not the Minister. As someone pointed out, such hair-splitting is classic Winston Peters material - unsurprising I suppose, since he and CK are both lawyers. And according to various commenters, Helen Clark is doing something similar at the UN - this Helen Clark who's now apparently a benchmark for ACT Ministers' behaviour in office being the same one vilified for years as dishonest, corrupt and a disgrace to the nation.

2. Chris Carter blogged a post vaguely comparing the PM to Benito Mussolini, to predictable howls of outrage and ugly gay-bashing on Kiwiblog. Fair enough - it's pointless, stupid and offensive to their victims to compare NZ politicians with murderous dictators, so Carter obviously falls into that category. Fair cop. But hold on a minute - if merely dashing off a blog post comparing the PM to a murderous dictator makes Carter an idiot, how are we to describe the blogger who went out and paid for large billboards comparing the PM to murderous dictators? You'd think, from the comments left by DPF's readers re Carter, that they'd be well placed to have advised him on just how stupid that was, but somehow they neglected to do so - perhaps because they all spent years comparing the PM to murderous dictators themselves in his comments threads.

3. Bill English lies so he can extract more money in allowances from the taxpayer than many of those taxpayers earn in a year. Cries of dishonesty, corruption, disgrace to the nation etc? Still waiting.

4. How about the govt's future plans? The latest one is to give all bureaucrats with enforcement powers the kind of powers only previously granted to Police. Again, no imagination required to picture how a move like this from the previous Labour govt would have been greeted. And yet, somehow, commentary is lacking...

Friday, October 23, 2009

Apparently the UN are putting in SAP. And they are looking to spend around $45m to put in SAP for the first time. I hope that is just the Finance module in Head office and not an intent to put it in world wide. UPDATE: Yes it is intended to be worldwide

Based on personal experience of similar programmes in the private sector I would suggest they are well under budgeted. There also does not seem to be hardware in the budget. $5.3m for change management, including programme management!!! Titter, giggle.

They refer to "subsequent build and roll-out phases." - This kind of implies it is going to take them 2 years to get through requirements analysis and design.

SAP is the ERP software of choice at most large companies nowadays. Running on Oracle databases and squeezed at the top end by Hyperion which is more flexible than BW.

I would love to know who has the Systems Integrator contract. They will be looking to make a killing with every small Change Request being priced up and billed at top rates. Change is a natural part of any programme like this and changes to scope are what costs. But you cannot know the real scope until you are doing the job.

I make a prediction now that in 2-3 years time this will become an INCIS style scandal for the UN. Among the 1 or 2 other scandals plaguing the UN. I will post this now and come back to it sometime.

Hmm turns out they have been going since 2000. And they decided on SAP at the start of 2009. That sounds about par for the course for the UN

For those interested read this blog post at CIO magazine where they guessed $300m based on UN rumour and noted such projects have a 7% chance of coming in on time

Software licences and customization ($11,475,000): as a result of the Organization’s stronger negotiation strategy with the software vendors, there would be limited payment for software licensing during the design phase of the project, and any required customizations would be initiated later in 2009.• Software integration ($21,847,400): based on the above-stated approach to theacquisition of software integration services, there would be a significantreduction in the overall work-months required during the biennium 2008-2009, as those resources would be required during the subsequent build and roll-out phases.• Project and change management ($5,387,700): the ERP project team would postpone the recruitment of its full staffing complement until July 2009 until the initiation of the design phase after the completion of high-level business re-engineering activities in the first quarter of 2009. The change management strategy continues to focus on an awareness campaign for the stakeholders of the ERP project, pending approval by the General Assembly.• Training ($5,615,400): the commencement of training is dependent upon the acquisition of the ERP software solution, which is in the final phase of evaluation.• Operational costs ($749,000): the above delays have a corresponding impact on the requirements related to general operating expenses.

Watching the daily dismal performance of Labour is a bit like visiting the site of a major train wreck a year after the event, only to discover that someone forgot to remove the twisted wreckage of old rolling stock and sundry detritus before signaling trains to proceed.

Today's piece of stunning stupidity is Goff's reaction to the opening of ACC to competition.

We'll reverse it when we are back in government he bleats.

"He said his party was vehemently opposed and would reverse the changes once back in government."

Never mind that National and ACT were elected on a clear mandate for competition, which Labour tiresomely portrays as privatisation which it is not. They don't seem to realise that it was their capacity for this sort of distortion and deceit which got them thrown out in November.

The subliminal message Goff has just given to the 70% of voters who don't support Labour is simple.

"We haven't learned a thing from our mistakes. We know better that you what's good for you. "

Insurers can confidently invest in this market now, safe in the knowledge that their tenure will be secure for at least twenty years. In fact, Goff's foolish outburst will give the GNActs all the justification they need to lock in the changes so that a future government can not again meddle in the way Clark and Cullen did without a substantial penalty payment to the private insurers.

The Government's clear intention to open ACC to private competition has driven a wedge between trade unions and the business sector.

Well, duh - that's what National does. Driving a wedge between trade unions and employers is one of their main reasons for existence. In this particular case, it's simply a welcome side-effect of their ideological war against ACC. But in terms of news, it's like reporting Jim Anderton wants to ban another drug - tell us something we don't know.

The real news in it is that Labour is vowing a "tooth and nail" fight over ACC. Really? They're going to move beyond desultory expressions of mild disapproval? Now that we didn't know.

Thursday, October 22, 2009

As soon as the RB starts hiking the OCR, our humble dollar is going to climb even more.

Under the current set up we are pawns in a very expensive game.

Next year higher mortgages, screwed exporters and less tourists.

Does any one else care that the billions that Bill is borrowing is at 5.5%?

Because to me, at that rate, he is stoking the fire. Telling the world that we are the suckers who will cough up for high rates. He should tell the lenders that we will pay 2% otherwise they can invest their money in places like Dubai.

The world wants our security, lifestyle and food.

We should be charging them the premium.

Of course, I suppose that if we actually did something productive with the borrowed billions that would help.

Inner City Press: the head of UNDP, Helen Clark, gave a speech in Washington at the Women’s Foreign Policy Group, and they charged $250 admission. Is there any kind of rule applicable to UN officials speaking in a for-pay environment and who reviews, obviously it was a fund-raiser, but what comment do you have on that?

Some mob of aggressive floggers of Kiwisaver to uninformed lower socio-economic families has indulged in a bit of comparative advertising by e-mail.

(God knows why they pursue this business so hard as there's no money to be made out of it. The broker principal no doubt expects to make a fortune out of trail commission paid on accumulated account balances. Well Adolf has news for him. It won't take too many more episodes such as this for him to have his agency agreement cancelled. Goodbye trail commissions. If this is the same outfit which has been running around door to door then I'd say he is close to being sacked.)

This has upset the victims of their apparent perfidy, ASB and ANZ - both of whom are notable for lamentable historical investment performance - resulting in complaints to the Securities Commission. It's at about this stage that the Herald repeater starts to bend the story away from the truth.

The astute reader will note that the response to the complaint by the Securities Commission is muted, to say the least.

"The email claims Fidelity's KiwiSaver funds are "rated number one across the board" with the best performance of all providers across its conservative, balanced, growth and aggressive funds and includes an attachment comparing investment returns with those of Huljich Wealth Management, ANZ Bank and ASB Bank. Under the figures for ANZ and ASB it states: "They are losing your money."

A spokeswoman for the Securities Commission said it was not illegal for providers to talk up their investment products or compare their performance to others as long as the promotion was not misleading, deceptive or confusing."

That's because the idiot salesmen used information which was not inaccurate even though it was not authorised for publication. Technically they were not in breach but ethically they leave much to be desired.

The astute reader then moves to the last paragraph in which the repeater piously quotes Morningstar figures which would have you believe that the fund manager being pilloried is telling lies. Not so. It is the Herald which is telling lies by insinuation and omission.

"A Morningstar report released last week found Fidelity's conservative fund was 10th out of 14 funds, its balanced fund was third out of 20, its growth fund was second out of 17 and its aggressive fund was third out of nine over the two years to September 30."

You see, dear friends, the figures used by the salesmen were the investment performance figures for Kiwisaver fund for the last three months. The Morningstar figures published in the Herald were for the past two years' investment performance.

Is it too much to ask that, just for once, the media could simply tell the truth without the spin?

Wednesday, October 21, 2009

The Veteran can now reveal that Shane Jones has brokered a deal with George Hawkins that will have him (Hawkins) announce his retirement from politics at the 2011 election and work (behind the scenes) to gift the seat to Shane Jones.

Clearly Jones has conceded that Labour has no show in Northland (never has) and the 'Right' faction of Labour is doing a deal to look after one of their own and bugger Labour's so called democratic selection process.

In a major poke in the eye for the small but loud mouthed 'broken election promises' brigade, justice minister Power has announced details of proposals for a series of referenda on the future of MMP. The proposals appear to have met favour with the county's leading political journos and with the Labour Party.

The details have been well covered elsewhere so it remains only for Adolf to remark that he will be agitating for the retention of MMP, albeit with some major structural adjustments to eliminate mischievous outfits such as Jamdertin's little labour party. In addition, I'd support Homepaddock's suggestions for an increase in the number of registered members required for recognition of a political party. Currently 500, the thresh hold is too low and should be increased to at least 1,000.

Let's face it, if you put it up to 2,000 you might embarrass the Labour Party.

This is the most gratuitous misuse of the word 'litany' I've yet seen:

A litany of errors by 111 ambulance dispatchers contributed to a Wellington man's death

Seriously, do you have to be illiterate to get a job in journalism now, or what? The word is 'series,' imbecile - a litany is a call/response prayer used in church.

It's tempting to blame Justice Mahon for this, because he coined the phrase "orchestrated litany of lies" during his Mt Erebus inquiry, to describe the memorised series of lies Air NZ staff repeated in response to his questions. That would be unfair, though - his use of 'litany' to describe it was a fitting metaphor. Sadly, illiterate NZ journos, not having the faintest idea what a litany is, assume he was using a fancy, intellectual-sounding word for 'list,' and figure they'll seem intelligent if they use it that way. Opposite effect, guys - makes you seem really stupid.

Tuesday, October 20, 2009

I must admit that I slept easier last night knowing that our Super Minister has successfully resolved the RWC TV crisis.

I would have preferred if he had donned his leotards, streaked to Irbland and demanded that all the games be played in three equal halves. That way MTV, TV1 and TV3 could all have a fair share and everyone would be happy.

But I guess I will just have to settle on throwing a day's borrowings at the event to sort it all out.

I have reached the sad conclusion that governments will never stop borrowing/printing money. Mostly because it is and always will be the easy way out. As long as all Western countries do it at roughly an equal rate then the final outcome should be reasonably equitable.

As the interest bills eventually exceed the value of goods mankind can produce, then we can simply take the African approach. Cancel the currencies and start again with new ones. It might piss a few Chinese and Arabs off, but who really cares. They'll never be good at rugby anyway.

So my advise. Buy gold and just enjoy the RWC. It is going to be a great party so make the most of it. I will.

The pupils' families were told yesterday and the boys will face unspecified disciplinary action.

And:

Earlier this month, Lincoln University fined 15 students $200, made them write an essay on the Holocaust and visit the Holocaust Centre and the German embassy, both in Wellington, at their own expense. They had attended a party last month dressed as Nazis and concentration camp victims.

Naturally, Joris de Bres is flapping his chops as well:

...I expect the school to deal with it, as they appear to be doing.

Yeah, way to demonstrate our staunch opposition to fascism - forcibly deprive people of their freedom of expression. If these students had anything between the legs they'd be telling these jumped-up little Hitlers to get fucked.

Monday, October 19, 2009

No surprises to see the Nikau Palms planted in an unnecessarily expensive Queen Street upgrade a few years ago are dying.

I had an office in Queen Street at the time. It was all jackhammers and concrete cutters for at least six months. The retailers took a bath. The noise, dust and nuisance was unbearable.

And just so a few Nikau Palms could be planted. Which are now dying.

The palms were planted amid fierce debate. Some Aucklanders believed the removal of the existing exotic plants would amount to downgrading Queen St. In the end the council removed 17 exotic plants.

I would have thought the Herald might have at least reminded us which mayor authorised the planting of them; which mayor spent tens of millions on unnecessary centrally planned beautification; and which mayor phoned in from his holiday home in Queenstown to stop the Queen Street massacre as the public backlash peaked.

There IS a way National can screw up and lose the 2011 general election.

Let your imagination run wild for a moment and picture the void left by a go nowhere, do nothing, no talent, still in denial Labour Party - polling at around 15% party vote.

Imagine a small army - maybe a platoon or two - of Redbaiters, erikters, Wake Ups, Manolos etc - fulminating on the sidelines. They have been ineffectual thus far and they need a cause celebre or a trigger point to elevate themselves into the centre of the public consciousness.

It is early 2011 and the recession has not receded. Unemployment remains high. Constraint is the order of the day. Ticket sales have bombed, in spite of a special gummint injection of $5 million (thanks McCully) to promote sales overseas. The projected loss balloons to an unprecedented $60 million and the tax payer sees a looming bill for $40 million.

Enter theParkYeehaaParty, lead by the charismatic Red Baiter, revealed to be none other than highly successful Ruawai dairy farmer, fifty year old VladoYankovich, father of six daughters and scourge of socialism. The Park Yeehaa Party is born but struggles to gain traction as it rails against the socialist pinkos in National and their suckhole comrades in ACT. It soaks up the rump of NZ First and a few disaffected National members. ACT suffers in the polls from its association with National and languishes between 2 and 3 percent. PYP moves up to poll steadily at 6 to 7% and can see Red in parliament.

Then, two months before the election, the All Blacks fail to even make the semi-finals of the Rugby World Cup and ticket sales for the remaining games dry up completely. The final is only seventy-five percent sold. Losses now are predicted to exceed $80 mil.

Voters search in desperation for somewhere to go and descend upon the PYP as the only real means of punishing National for the RWC debacle without giving oxygen to the hated Labour Party and the reviled Greens.

National takes a bath and polls 41% party vote, ACT gets 4% but wins two electorates, MP takes 12 seats and the Park Yeehaa Party wins 22% of the party vote, with no electorates. Greens fail to make the cut while Labour outbids Bill English with 18% of the vote.

Sunday, October 18, 2009

I've said it many times, as have others, and it needs to be said again, via ACT's newsletter to members on matters political:

The Government decided to press ahead with a revised ETS, introduced with the support of the Maori Party.

The Bill exhibits all the worst features identified by critics of ETS systems. Economists have long tended to prefer a carbon tax to an ETS, because the latter is likely to result in high compliance and administration costs, lack of transparency, massive lobbying for special treatment, corporate welfare, and market manipulation. Politicians are attracted to an ETS because it does not look or sound like a tax, although it is. Moreover, politicians can hand out the associated credits in a politically advantageous way.

The NZ ETS exhibits all these negative features. A large bureaucracy will be needed to manage it, and already the process of establishing the ETS is shot through with lobbying, unprincipled deal-making and divergent treatment of different economic activities. The intensity-based approach will strain the already formidable information and monitoring requirements of an ETS.

As the costs and subsidies become reflected in asset prices, the wealth transfers will become locked in, and politically difficult to change. The notion that, by turning up to the Copenhagen meeting as a world leader in having a legislated ETS, we can influence the world is simply pompous grandstanding. This conceit will be at the expense of New Zealand workers and businesses.

The deals are being done in the back room. It seems the price of support from the Maori Party to simply have the Bill introduced was to include a Treaty of Waitangi clause, to look again at past Treaty settlements, and to allocate carbon credits to iwi fishing interests. There will be more deals. It is obvious who has the leverage here the price to actually get this legislation passed will be high.

Meanwhile the government is congratulating itself for its pragmatism and moderation, due to there being a delayed entry and a gradual transition for various sectors. But the direction of policy is the crucial signal to investors. A gradual transition does not much help as far as jobs and investment are concerned. It is the destination that is the problem, and the signal to business is loud and clear. Invest elsewhere.

Can someone please explain to John Key which bit is supposed to do the wagging, because his one of his coalition partners seems to think that the tail wags the dog.

This is also interesting as men struggle to come to terms with shit happening. One of the problems is that as they see their own financial world crumble, they look to the country's Leadership for guidance, perhaps even a bit of inspiration.

And what do they see.

A business as usual, no real belt tightening, borrow more money regardless, fly some gang members around and tell them what a great job they're doing, have two state entities bid against each other, etc etc.

We don't have leadership in this country. We have every man for himself.

Saturday, October 17, 2009

The comments thread has a great discussion about the LAV and there is a link to a fascinating series of article on the benefits of the LAV. I must admit to having had my doubts about the LAV choice but based on the enthusiastic endorsement of American Stryker outfits in Iraq it seems to be the right choice for New Zealand.

There is also a link to The Thunder Run which is an account of the US military run into Baghdad when they deposed Saddam and how close run things were. A missile took out Brigade communications and resupply problems came dangerously close to leaving the 975 soldiers who pushed into Baghdad dangerously short of ammunition and fuel.

A few links there for the military enthusiasts with time amongst our readers.

He writes here about the long goodbye to oil and how it has morphed into a financial commodity as much as a physical commodity. He also notes that technology changes will ensure oil will be extracted for decades to come and peak oil has been mooted many times before. Some extracts

Both the U.S. Department of Energy and the International Energy Agency project that, even accounting for gains in efficiency, global energy use will increase almost 50 percent from 2006 to 2030 -- and that oil will continue to provide 30 percent or more of the world's energy in 2030.

But will it?

At the time of the first Gulf War in 1991, China was still an oil exporter.

So far this year, more new cars have been sold in China than in the United States. When economic recovery takes hold again, what happens to oil demand in such emerging countries will be crucial.

Inevitably, any country in China's position -- whose demand had grown from 2.5 million barrels per day to 8 million in a decade and a half -- would be worrying about supplies. Such an increase, however, is not a forecast of inevitable strife; it is a message about economic growth and rising standards of living.

How does that get done? How does the world at once meet both the challenge of climate change and the challenge of economic growth -- steady expansion in the industrial countries and more dramatic growth in China, India, and other emerging markets as tens of millions of their citizens rise from poverty and buy appliances and cars?

The answer has to be in another defining change -- an emphasis on technology to a degree never before seen. The energy business has always been a technology business. After all, the men who figured out in 1859, exactly 150 years ago, how to drill that first oil well -- Colonel Drake and his New Haven, Conn., investors -- would, in today's lingo, be described as a group of disruptive technology entrepreneurs and venture capitalists. Again and again, in researching oil's history, I was struck by how seemingly insurmountable barriers and obstacles were overcome by technological progress, often unanticipated.

Consider the "peak oil" thesis -- shorthand for the presumption that the world has reached the high point of production and is headed for a downward slope. Historically, peak-oil thinking gains attention during times when markets are tight and prices are rising, stoking fears of a permanent shortage. In 2007 and 2008, the belief system built around peak oil helped drive prices to $147.27. (It was actually the fifth time that the world had supposedly "run out" of oil. The first such episode was in the 1880s; the last instance before this most recent time was in the 1970s.)

However, careful examination of the world's resource base -- including my own firm's analysis of more than 800 of the largest oil fields -- indicates that the resource endowment of the planet is sufficient to keep up with demand for decades to come.