Monday, August 10, 2009

Well sigh. Today's Newspoll stayed the same on 2 Part Preferred terms. How boring. Yet another poll predicting an ALP slaughtering of the Lib/Nats. Dullsville.

That a 57-43 results is not headline news anymore is a pretty good indication of where things are at for the Opposition. Things are dire; and I'm talking Crackerjack Bowling Club levels of dire.

At least there was some movement in the Satisfaction ratings of Turnbull. Not positive movements, but at least they weren't dull. His Satisfaction rating went from 33% to 26%. His Dissatisfaction rating went up from 50% to 57%, to give him a net rating of minus 31. Rudd on the other hand has a net rating of 48% - putting him 79 points in front on that score. No other leader has made it to an election with such low ratings, let alone come close to winning one.

But props to Greg Hunt for keeping his chin up, though going on ABC TV and suggesting that the poll was “positive”, and that “under the circumstances it is a very strong result.” was perhaps moving into the dangerously silly territory, but still, well done.

In the day's news, the Liberal-National Party Malcolm Turnbull-Nick Xenaphon Party released their Emission Trading System Policy Modelling. Amazingly Turnbull held a press conference to announce … err some economic modelling that err should be part of the debate… but is not anyone’s policy because err well look errr that’s not the point … the point is that …

Astonishing really. A joke of a way to run a party. Just imagine if you were an MP of the Liberal Party and you see your leader announcing to the media a proposal on the most important economic issue facing the nation, and you realise you haven’t even had a say on it yet. Bet you’d feel real happy to realise you are now an MP for the Turnbull Party (especially as it seems now to be in coalition with Nick Xenaphon).

Look Turnbull and Co claim they can achieve more cuts in emissions for a lot less cost. They do this buy predicting they’ll be able to buy a lot more carbon permits from overseas than the Government's plan does, and by assuming a lower price of carbon than everyone expects to have to pay.

It’s all a bit of a pea and thimble trick – we’ll reduce emissions by ensuring no one has any incentive to stop reducing their emissions. Think about it, under this scheme Turnbull suggests the price of the average electricity bill to rise by $8 a year. Would that change your behaviour in any way? Both sides – the ALP is guilty of this as well – need to face up to the fact that if you want people to stop using carbon-dirty energy, then the price will have to go up – just like you try to get people to stop smoking by upping the price of cigarettes. No price pain; no emissions change. Sorry wish it weren’t so.

But in political terms this policy (or whatever it is) by Turnbull is a waste of paper and space. Why would the Government consider negotiating with him on this? The Liberal Party hasn’t even adopted it as its policy – so there’s no guarantee Turnbull can even say to the Govt, “adopt this policy and my side will all vote for it”. The National Party sure as hell don't support it – which was obvious by the absence from today’s press conference of Warren Truss. Turnbull himself started doing an impression of Shirty the Slightly Aggressive Bear whenever any journo dared ask him a question about why this wasn’t actually a policy, or where was Truss, or what about that Godwin Grech? It was as if he couldn’t believe those assembled hadn’t forgotten about his past week in light of him solving the entire climate change problem.

Look, Penny Wong can be as shifty-political on this issue as anyone, but she does have one very good point – until Turnbull comes to the table with a document that is supported by his party, anything he says is just whistling in the wind.

And with a Satisfaction rating of 26% and a Preferred PM rating of 17%, he doesn’t have a very loud whistle.