Obama Plays to Liberal Base, Not Independents

President Barack Obama walks to the front row to shake hands after speaking about increasing the minimum wage April 30 in the East Room of the White House.

Associated Press

At a low point in President Barack Obama‘s first term, a White House official conceded the president had lost a disturbing amount of ground with independent voters.

We have to get them back, the official said in an interview.

So began a deliberate effort on the president’s part to court the swing voters who helped him win the White House in 2008. He made deficit reduction a priority, while unnerving core Democrats with pledges to pare entitlement costs in pursuit of a budgetary “grand bargain.”

Mr. Obama and the Republicans never cut the deal, but the president stanched the defection of independent voters by the time the 2012 election rolled around. He won 45% of independents – not bad considering that a Gallup poll from a year and a half earlier showed his support among these voters at just 35%.

Today, with the midterm election campaigns approaching, independents are as disillusioned with the president as they’ve been in years. Their sour mood poses a particular challenge for Democrats in the midterms. Making the challenge all the more daunting, the policy initiatives showcased by Mr. Obama in recent months have all been aimed at motivating the party’s liberal base.

The Wall Street Journal/NBC News polling shows that just 29% of independents approved of Mr. Obama as of last month, down from 38% in 2010. About half of independents preferred Republican congressional candidates, versus 24% who favored the Democrats, the most recent Journal poll showed. And amid a spate of comparatively positive reports that the Obama administration has fixed the health-care website and met its signup goals, only about a fifth of independents believed Mr. Obama’s signature legislation was a good idea.

Midterm elections often hinge on which of the two parties does a better job of mobilizing base votes. The White House is emphasizing pay equity for women and the minimum wage. Mr. Obama is throwing his weight behind programs like “My Brother’s Keeper,” designed to create more opportunities for minority boys and young men.

It’s the stuff that excites party activists and liberals. Swing voters? Maybe not as much.

As a political matter, the strategy is a gamble. The bet is that, come November, any softening of independent support will be offset by a wave of minority, women and liberal voters eager to keep the Senate in Democratic hands.

Mr. Obama worked hard to win independents back in 2012. For tactical reasons, he now seems ready to let them go.

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