Post-coup crackdown throws doubt on Turkey migration deal

Diplomats are worried that a pillar of the EU’s migration strategy could fall apart as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan goes after opponents in the wake of Friday’s failed coup attempt.

European Commission officials said this week the EU would stand by its tenuous migration deal with Turkey, even as many politicians expressed alarm over the arrest or removal from their jobs of thousands of people in retaliation for the coup attempt, and hints from Erdoğan and his prime minister that the death penalty could be reinstated to deal with the alleged plotters.

“Turkey is a candidate country and a key partner for the European Union, and therefore the EU remains committed to working together with democratic, inclusive and stable Turkey to address our common challenges,” Maroš Šefčovič, a Commission vice president, told reporters Wednesday.

His comments echoed those of Margaritis Schinas, the Commission’s chief spokesman, who said on Tuesday the EU would “continue to implement” its part of the EU-Turkey deal. But they also came after statements from other members of the Commission expressing alarm about the events of the past few days in Turkey.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel, speaking in Berlin late Wednesday, said she was following the events in Turkey with “great worry,” a message she said she had also conveyed by telephone to Erdoğan. Nonetheless, she said she saw no reason to suspend the EU’s refugee pact with Turkey, an agreement she was instrumental in crafting.

“So far there is no indication that Turkey is not fulfilling its obligations,” Merkel said.

One of the main components of the EU’s attempt to stem the flow of refugees — in which Ankara agreed in March to take Syrian migrants reaching Greece in return for the relocation of Syrians in Turkey to countries across the Union — was Brussels granting visa-free travel to Turkish citizens in Europe.

Success on that front was already in doubt before the dramatic events of last weekend, as Turkey struggled to meet the EU’s legal requirements for allowing visa-free travel, including respect for the rule of law and civil liberties. Now, it seems even further away. Later on Wednesday, Turkey declared a three-month state of emergency, with Erdoğan insisting that “Europe does not have the right to criticize this decision.”

Even as they sought to show continued support for the deal, which is seen as crucial to the bloc’s overall migration strategy, EU diplomats and officials said they would be watching closely in coming weeks to see whether Turkey continues the crackdown or resumes trying to fulfill the last handful of 72 legal “benchmarks” required for the visa waiver. Erdoğan has said that without the visa liberalization, the deal would be scuttled.

“All [the benchmarks] have to be met,” Johannes Hahn, the enlargement commissioner, confirmed to MEPs Tuesday, admitting “all of this is overshadowed by current events.”

Hahn had said on Monday that he was “very concerned” about the Turkish government’s actions in response to the coup attempt.

The EU’s foreign policy chief, Federica Mogherini, said Monday at a meeting of EU foreign ministers that “we still consider Turkey as a partner,” and the bloc is following developments in the country “with a friendly attitude.”

Another consideration is whether the unrest in Turkey would lead to a change in its status as a safe haven country, a requirement under the Geneva convention for returning refugees. But Mogherini said there had been no discussion among EU foreign ministers about questioning Turkey’s safe-haven status.

Kati Piri, a Dutch member of the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats, said recent events make it “highly unlikely that the Commission will give its green light and send the file to the Parliament any time soon.”

Even in the Commission, there seems to be difference of opinion over Ankara’s ability to meet the requirements. Günther Oettinger, European commissioner for digital economy and society, told German media in an interview published Tuesday that there’ll be no visa-free travel for Turks this year.

“The biggest obstacle,” Piri said, is Ankara’s refusal to change anti-terrorism legislation, “which is also used to silence critics.”

The migration agreement also included a promise to restart talks on Turkey’s bid to join the EU, but that prospect looked especially dim in the aftermath of the coup.

Hahn said the Commission would “make the necessary preparations for the various chapters,” but he added, “We will have to wait and see how things develop in the next few months.”

Elmar Brok, a prominent German member of the European People’s Party, told MEPs at a debate on Turkey on Tuesday that “introduction of the death penalty is a clear line, it could prevent further EU accession talks.”

Early signs are the refugee swap is working: Whereas shortly before the agreement was reached around 1,740 migrants were crossing the Aegean Sea to the Greek islands every day, by May that number had dropped to 47, according to the Commission’s June progress report.

“The collaboration has so far worked well,” said a European diplomat. “We are hopeful, because the deal was made with Erdoğan, and it is also in his interest to make it work.”

In a reference mainly to the Parliament, the diplomat added that “Now, it is not about what Turkey will do but rather what the EU will do.”

His comments were echoed by some members of the conservative European People’s Party, who see anything jeopardizing the refugee arrangement, including delays on visa liberalization, as disastrous for Europe.

“Everyone is really crossing their fingers, and we are working very hard behind the scenes to have this deal done,” said a source in the EPP. “It has to work otherwise it would be a disaster for Europe.”

The Commission is expected to issue its third progress report on the EU-Turkey deal in September.

This article was updated after Turkey declared a state of emergency Wednesday night.

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meh

Let’s see how far the EU will bend to keep this deal alive. I’m betting a looong way.

Posted on 7/20/16 | 7:23 PM CET

YY

That’s odd, since the solution of Merkel’s disastrous de-facto world wide mass invitation of islamic refugees was to give that autocratic islamic state much more money, easier travel to the EU and faster EU membership.

Merkel most likely will be remembered as the one responsible for the destruction of the EU and should be trialed for high treason against the people. Until her political failure, Europeans didn’t even know the meaning for Taharrush; we have Merkel to thank for learning the hard way of this meaning. Luckily, Hollande has a solution: We have to get used to (islamic) terrorist attacks!

It’s obvious the political correct, the left, the christians, have no solution for the shoah coming up to us. Everybody can see that civil war is closing in with every terrorist attack and gang-rape. And even the government have institutionalized taqiyya as a means to hide the crimes. Obviously, this doesn’t work anymore and only feeds the beast.

Time to resolve this peacefully is crumbling fast and those responsible will be marked.

Posted on 7/20/16 | 7:50 PM CET

RobVC

blind, blind, blind… erdogan is not a bit interested in eu membership.
he pretends in order to gain as much advantage as possible, holding the refugee deal like sledgehammer above a weak and struggling eu.

Posted on 7/20/16 | 8:53 PM CET

Alan

As I have said elsewhere, the next wave of immigration from Turkey will not be simply Syrians, Iraqis and Afghans but also ethnic Turks & Turkish minorities seeking asylum

The EU deal with Turkey died on the streets of Istanbul & Ankara at the weekend

Posted on 7/20/16 | 9:14 PM CET

Dan

The EU has one major problem and it is about to become even more of a publicity nightmare than it has been in the past months. It is outsourcing a growing problem of theirs to a third party, one that uses this weakness for all that it’s worth. Or in other words, the Erdogan-led Turkey barks and the EU jumps in fright.

As long as the EU is unwilling to implement a strong border protection on its own, it will keep bending their knee to Turkey’s demands and rhetoric. How far they are willing to bend (and even break) their own principles is mind-boggling to me and, as a EU citizen, I live in a permanently horrified state about this fact. I wonder which excuses we’ll hear from Brussels next time, if Turkey should decide to reintroduce the death penalty.

Posted on 7/21/16 | 1:37 AM CET

Austin

Say Turkey gets it’s visa waver. Isn’t it only a matter of time until people being persecuted in Turkey move to the EU and claim asylum. And wouldn’t the EU have to grant asylum if Erdogan goes down the authoritarian path? It seems like the EU is just swapping the ethnicity of future refugees. A quick fix that will only create more problems tomorrow.

Posted on 7/21/16 | 7:32 AM CET

YY

Forget the EU migration deal; that’s the least of our problems with Turkey!
How can we terminate their NATO membership and EU accession deal, visa-free travel to the EU. That are the bigger issues!
Luckily, Turkey just suspended the EU Human Rights Convention 😀
And everybody has the fullest trust in the coming human rights violations by the AK regime. And we should let them. Don’t try to change the true nature of the beast, let it be!
It’s so interesting to see the similarities between Russia and Turkey! Although Putin embezzled about €200 billion and Erdogan’s family only several dozens of billions, with the help of allah of course, one could swap them and not notice a difference in policy.
Now, let’s search for those in the EU with a double passport and a doubtful loyalty >:-)

Posted on 7/21/16 | 2:08 PM CET

JC

YY is right – Turkey expelled from NATO and use the military to impose a hard border

Posted on 7/21/16 | 4:04 PM CET

Tom Cullem

Oh, it’s going to be delicious watching the EU twist in the wind as Merkel fights to keep that migrant deal going after two Muslim attacks in Germany in one week. In case no one heard, the Munich shopping center gunman turns out to have been working alone and is a German Iranian), and the axe-wielding Afghani who may actually have been from Pakistan, was an “asylum seeker”. Merkel will keep that migrant deal alive if Erdogan starts beheading bunnies in Istanbul’s central square while schoolchildren watch. She can’t afford the political blowback of migrants streaming back to Europe and trying to get into Germany after three serious Islamist attacks in France and one in Brussels within 18 months, and two in Germany in one week. And the EU can’t afford to add to the numbers of Middle Eastern and North African migrants it is already trying to shove down a resistant and angry Europe’s throat. National governments that don’t tell Merkel and the EU to stuff it re migrant quotas will fall like dominoes.

The EU knew from 2013 on that the migrant crisis was heading its ways. It didn’t make securing its borders a priority then, and its borders still aren’t secured. Its failure to take steps earlier led to its dependence on Erdogan, and its dependence on Erdogan will destroy any credibility it has left re democratic values.

Britain may have a few tough years ahead, but in the end it will be clear it got out just in time.

Merkel and Brussels are going to be flying the Hypocrisy Flag in a stiff wind – they have to.