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Aug 2010

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477

I'm hoping the "back-against-the-wall" mentality takes over and we blow them out, but I wouldn't bet that we cover the spread. Seems we never do against substandard teams, so why would we do so against the Bengals when our secondary is a wreck? Truth is, droid is right. We should not be 5 point favorites in this game.

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Doesn't really matter. We'll have Cortez and Keenan available. We're at home. We already beat them. And Ben should be getting back closer to normal.

The betting lines are set to get people to make bets. They really are insignificant sometimes. All the talking heads like the Steelers. So the public likes the Steelers and the bettors like the Steelers. So you have to give bettors a reason to bet Cincy.

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Doesn't really matter. We'll have Cortez and Keenan available. We're at home. We already beat them. And Ben should be getting back closer to normal.

The betting lines are set to get people to make bets. They really are insignificant sometimes. All the talking heads like the Steelers. So the public likes the Steelers and the bettors like the Steelers. So you have to give bettors a reason to bet Cincy.

I understand how lines work, that being said, they often kind of lag behind in terms of matching reality. That is why I think this line is too high on Pgh's side: recent history is Pgh wins this game. And they still could. But being favored by 5 seems out of line. The best way to win in betting is to realize when reality does not match recent history because the betting public, and talking heads, tend to realize a team is better or worse after weeks of reality setting in. That being said, some betters with a more accurate assessment of the game are chiming in, as the spread has just dropped to 3.5 instead of 5. So, fact is, the dudes setting the line set it too high. I was right.

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Originally Posted by lloydroid

I understand how lines work, that being said, they often kind of lag behind in terms of matching reality. That is why I think this line is too high on Pgh's side: recent history is Pgh wins this game. And they still could. But being favored by 5 seems out of line. The best way to win in betting is to realize when reality does not match recent history because the betting public, and talking heads, tend to realize a team is better or worse after weeks of reality setting in. That being said, some betters with a more accurate assessment of the game are chiming in, as the spread has just dropped to 3.5 instead of 5. So, fact is, the dudes setting the line set it too high. I was right.

I hear what you're saying. But I think what happened here is they were trying to get people to bet on the Bengals. And the line dropping to 3.5 means they must have gotten the money flowing the way they wanted.

Look at it from this perspective. The Steelers or Bengals could easily rout the other. Who knows what team will show up. I suspect a lot of people wouldn't bet on this game because of the uncertainty of who's gonna show up for both sides. So they had to slant it a little uneven to bring the bets.

So you're right, this game shouldn't be this far apart. But at the same time, if the line was close, I'm not sure how many people would have bet and Vegas doesn't make as much money on the action.

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Aug 2012

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2,026

Originally Posted by flippy

I hear what you're saying. But I think what happened here is they were trying to get people to bet on the Bengals. And the line dropping to 3.5 means they must have gotten the money flowing the way they wanted.

Look at it from this perspective. The Steelers or Bengals could easily rout the other. Who knows what team will show up. I suspect a lot of people wouldn't bet on this game because of the uncertainty of who's gonna show up for both sides. So they had to slant it a little uneven to bring the bets.

So you're right, this game shouldn't be this far apart. But at the same time, if the line was close, I'm not sure how many people would have bet and Vegas doesn't make as much money on the action.

Good point. If I bet it, at 5, I would have to take Cinci. Even at 3.5, I would tend to take them. Might cover by that 1/2 point. But I generally don't bet for or against Pgh; it never seems to work out. Seems like a can't win situation.

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Originally Posted by lloydroid

Good point. If I bet it, at 5, I would have to take Cinci. Even at 3.5, I would tend to take them. Might cover by that 1/2 point. But I generally don't bet for or against Pgh; it never seems to work out. Seems like a can't win situation.

I remember hearing never bet on a Pittsburgh game growing up like it was the gospel.

Might not be true and might just be cause I pay attention to the Steelers, but there seem to be a lot of fishy games vs the spread.

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Doesn't really matter. We'll have Cortez and Keenan available. We're at home. We already beat them. And Ben should be getting back closer to normal.

Why do I feel like once the game starts, one or both of those guys will get hurt? It should be unlikely but the way our season has been going with injuries I have no confidence that our DBs will stay healthy. It's crazy.