Can intellectual processes in the sciences also be
simulated? The anticipation and visualization of possible future states

Abstract

Socio-cognitive
action reproduces and changes both social and cognitive structures. The
analytical distinction between these dimensions of structure provides
us with richer models of scientific development. In this study, I assume
that (1) social structures organize expectations into belief structures
that can be attributed to individuals and communities; (2) expectations
are specified in scholarly literature; and (3) intellectually the
sciences (disciplines, specialties) tend to self-organize as systems of
rationalized expectations. Whereas social organizations remain
localized, academic writings can circulate, and expectations can be
stabilized and globalized using symbolically generalized codes of
communication. The intellectual restructuring, however, remains latent
as a second-order dynamics that can be accessed by participants only
reflexively. Yet, the emerging “horizons of meaning” provide feedback to
the historically developing organizations by constraining the possible
future states as boundary conditions. I propose to model these possible
future states using incursive and hyper-incursive equations from the
computation of anticipatory systems. Simulations of these equations
enable us to visualize the couplings among the historical—i.e.,
recursive—progression of social structures along trajectories, the
evolutionary—i.e., hyper-incursive—development of systems of
expectations at the regime level, and the incursive instantiations of
expectations in actions, organizations, and texts.

This is a blog (now) associated with the European Social Simulation Assocation SIG on "Simulating the Social Processes of Science". For all queries about the SIG, or items to post here please contact Bruce Edmonds "bruce at edmonds dot name". Thanks