Summer heat prediction could mean more bushfires

The prediction of a hotter-than-average summer has led to an update of the national bushfire outlook, with Australia’s most highly populated areas – including regions around Sydney, Melbourne and Hobart – facing an above-average fire risk.

The stark exception is Queensland and north-eastern New South Wales, where the wettest October since 1975 has led to a downgrading of the fire risk for the coming summer.

“Don’t forget, we have had significant fire activity in La Nina years.”

The Black Saturday bushfires of 2009 took place during a weak La Nina.

Senior climatologist with the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), Dr Blair Trewin, said on Tuesday that there was an intriguing link between weak La Nina years and heatwaves along the southern and south eastern coastline.

November heat wave

Although La Nina has not yet been officially declared, south-eastern Australia is currently experiencing a prolonged heat wave.

Dr Trewin said it was being driven by a slow-moving high pressure system over the Tasman Sea.

“What we’re seeing now is a very prolonged heat spell, more of the type more typical of late summer or early autumn,” he said.

Below is a synoptic chart from the last few days show the blocking high in the Tasman Sea