OTTAWA — Christy Clark’s stunning election victory has raised the likelihood that one or both of the oilsands pipeline projects to the B.C. coast will be built, supporters and opponents of the proposals said Wednesday.

While Clark set five tough conditions for the projects involving environmental protection, aboriginal rights and financial benefits, the New Democratic Party’s Adrian Dix was a clear opponent.

Kennedy Stewart, NDP MP for Burnaby Douglas, called the election result a “big game changer.”

“I think the election of the Liberals increases the odds of both pipelines going through,” said Stewart, who opposes both Enbridge’s Northern Gateway and Kinder Morgan’s Trans Mountain projects.

University of B.C. political scientist George Hoberg, a specialist in resource management and outspoken oil industry critic, called the election a “major setback” for B.C.’s environmental movement.

While he said the Liberal victory doesn’t give Clark a public mandate to proceed with either project, he said environmentalists will have to re-think their approach to political campaigns heading into the 2015 federal election.

“I also believe that an increasing number of environmentalists will choose to resort to civil disobedience when appropriate opportunities arise.”

B.C. NDP MP Peter Julian, chairman of the federal caucus, agreed with Hoberg that the pipeline backers still face the huge challenge of obtaining “social license” from British Columbians before proceeding.

But while politicians and academics saw Tuesday’s stunning Liberal victory as a major boost for the oil pipelines, those closest to the Northern Gateway project were more circumspect.

“Being a British Columbian I had a great interest in what was happening (on election night) and like most people was surprised by how different the results were from the polling,” Janet Holder, Enbridge Inc. executive vice-president, said.

We know that as the next phase of our project goes forward, as we are rolling out of the regulatory phase, that we need to continue to meet with governments — municipal and provincial.

“We need to continue to work with aboriginals and the communities along the right of way, and the citizens of British Columbia to help them understand the value of this project and to help us understand what the concerns are, and how we can address those concerns.”

Geoff Morrison, B.C. operations manager for the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, said Clark’s five conditions for supporting Northern Gateway “are actually quite clear and were actually helpful initially.”

“Given that that dialogue (with government) is going to continue … I think there will be a renewed focus on seeing if those five conditions can be satisfied.”

Morrison added that while CAPP won’t comment on the outcome of an election, having the Liberals return to power means that discussions over acceptable conditions for oil pipeline development could continue without interruption — as could negotiations over development of LNG terminals on the B.C. coast.

“CAPP can’t take a position and won’t take a position on one party or another. There’s an existing relationship and it minimizes that transactional time of building a new relationship.”

Federal Conservatives weren’t happy about Clark’s conditions, but she is still seen as far friendlier than Dix, who has long opposed Enbridge’s $6.5 billion Northern Gateway project to Kitimat and Kinder Morgan’s $5.4 billion expansion to its existing facility in Burnaby.

Roger Gibbins, former head of the Canada West Foundation think-tank, said the election is good news for Alberta and changes the odds of a pipeline being built from zero per cent to seven or eight per cent.

“At least Clark will come to the table and speaks the same language,” said Gibbins, a pipeline supporter who added that the election showed there is no evidence of a “green wave” in B.C.

“Generally the federal government has had a good and functional working relationship with the B.C. Liberals.

“Although the Northern Gateway Pipeline is far from a done deal, it is certainly more likely to proceed than if the NDP had formed government.”

Both projects have been described by the Harper government as vital to Canada’s national interest as the oilpatch seeks to expand its markets beyond the U.S., where growing supplies and a transportation bottleneck have driven down profit margins.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper didn’t comment on the election result beyond a perfunctory “congratulations” statement and pledge to continue working with Clark “on issues that matter to British Columbians and all Canadians, including jobs, growth and long-term economic prosperity.”

Natural Resources Minister Joe Oliver issued a statement noting that natural resource development “supports” 100,000 B.C. jobs, represents 13 per cent of the economy, and generates huge revenues to support schools and hospitals.

“I look forward to continuing to work with the BC government on ways to responsibly develop our natural resources for the benefit of British Columbians and all Canadians.”

Jack Mintz, director of the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy and an Imperial Oil director, said the oilpatch remains “uncertain” about B.C. — but has some reason for optimism.

“With Christy Clark there may be more flexibility. She did run very strongly on economic development as her major theme, and I think the public supported her on that.”

Mintz agreed with speculation from one Conservative Wednesday who suggested that Clark might continue to oppose Northern Gateway, but use that tough stand to extract a better financial return for B.C. from Kinder Morgan.

Matt Horne, Pembina Institute’s climate change director, noted that emissions from the province’s natural gas sector would be five or six times greater with the development of processing facilities for LNG export.

“It was definitely disappointing that the Liberals didn’t have more about next steps in their climate policy in their platform.

“I know there are clearly some big conflicts on the LNG side but there a bunch of first steps in the (Liberals’) climate plan that could still be built upon — and it’s not clear if that’s part of the plan for the next four years or not.”

Clean Energy BC executive director Paul Kariya, representing independent power producers, said he expects new opportunities for independents as part of the powering up of LNG processing plants.

“The premier won very much on a jobs mission mandate,” Kariya said. “(Our sector) may not be the prime jobs creator but we think given the world that’s unfolding we will be a jobs enabler.”

Renewable energy can be used to offset greenhouse gas emissions from LNG production, Kariya said.

“When you talk to the LNG companies they all kind of get it from a social license point of view. I think that’s the piece where we can help.”

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