Monday, January 10, 2011

Betting this kind of 10 cent superfecta requires some careful planning and analysis of a race. It may also require tracking the tote pick in a race. Here is an approach that keeps the expense of the bet at a reasonable cost (say, under $40). Using the tote pick also requires that you be able to place your bet under 2 minutes before the race starts. Here's where using the internet is helpful.

How might one go about constructing this bet? First, let's find a horse in the race to key on. A race where there are 10 or more horses and one of the horses is a heavy favorite might be a horse to key on. If this choice is not favorable then you might choose a tote pick to help out? Doing a tote analysis on a race before hand can give you a horse to key on in your bet. [Check out articles from my blog " http://handicapbet.blogspot.com/2008/03/tote-analysis-of-mac-diarmida-handicap.html " and " http://handicapbet.blogspot.com/2008_01_01_archive.html ".] Using a horse to key on reduces the cost of the bet significantly.

Secondly, How much are we willing to spend on the bet? Putting long shots into your bet will require your willingness to spend a little more on the bet.

Thirdly, how does one pick high odd horses to include in the bet? There has to be something that gives you an inkling that this horse might have a chance to come in 4th or better. Some of the things to consider might be the following. A particular trainer, or jockey, or jockey-trainer combo might trigger throwing in the horse to the superfecta bet. Don't leave out certain jockey-trainer combinations especially when a high odd horse has a jockey-trainer combination that is just too good to pass up. Don't forget to look at certain jockeys (even Hall of Fame jockeys) who chose to ride a high odd horse (particularly if it happens to be a 1st time starter with a very good works). These are a few possibilities. There are many more that horse players might use.

Does the number of horses in the race matter? You bet it does. Races with 9,10,11,12,13, and 14 horses tend to have much larger payoff's. After all in these races it's not uncommon to have odds of 50/1 on a number of horses. When one or more of these horses come in 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or 4th the payoff can be very large.

Let's put together a sample bet to see what the costs might be. ("ALL" refers to include all the horses in the race.)

(Key Horse)/ALL/ALL/ALL This bet with 6 horses in the race costs $6 with 7 horses in the race costs $12 with 8 horses in the race costs $21 with 9 horses in the race costs $33.60 with 10 horses in the race costs $50.40

With 10 horses the cost begins to get too expensive. To keep the cost reasonable (say, less than $40) you can put in the five top morning line choices (H1,H2,H3,H4,H5) in the place position. Another choice might be to use Twinspires top Profit Line picks.

(Key Horse)/H1,H2,H3,H4,H5/ALL/ALL This bet with 10 horses in the race costs $28 with 11 horses in the race costs $36

(Key Horse)/H1,H2,H3,H4/ALL/ALL This bet with 12 horses in the race costs $36

Note that with 12 horses the place position only has the 4 top morning line choices.