February 05, 2014

A Bit Of A Dis To Single Payer Advocates

Jared Bernstein, former economic advisor to Joe Biden, takes to the Times to tell us that the recent CBO report really wasn't about jobs and disincentives to work.

Hey, changing the subject is a time-honored tactic, and good luck to him. However, we were rendered slack-jawed by this policy insight (my emphasis):

What the Congressional Budget Office is saying is that because people receiving subsidies through the health care act will see those subsidies reduced as their earnings rise, they’ll choose to work less to avoid that loss.

...

The Affordable Care Act gives that job holder an option and, for some, an incentive to work less without losing health coverage. Conservatives might well object to making that choice on the taxpayers’ dime. But there’s no model of health care reform from the left or the right that doesn’t involve a subsidy that fades out as income rises. So this labor-supply-choice problem is endemic.

Uhh, does single payer really have subsidy phase-outs? I don't claim to be up to speed on every aspect of every progressive fantasy, but then again, I never worked for Joe Biden. I would have guessed that if Uncle Sam picked up the tab for everyone's health care and paid for that out of general tax revenues, there would be no specific subsidies to be phased. The overall level of taxes might rise, providing a general disincentive to work, but that disincentive would not be focused on the subsidy-eligible lower-earners, as with the ACA.

Well. Perhaps as a demonstration of the impact of delivering a reduced work effort, Mr. Bernstein then linked approvingly to this comic riff:

So what do you get when there’s less labor supply around stable labor demand? A tighter job market.

The economist Dean Baker uses Congressional Budget Office numbers to make this point:

“If hours fall by 1.5 to 2.0 percent, but compensation falls by 1.0 percent, then compensation per hour rises by 0.5-1.0 percent due to the ACA. If this is bad news for workers then someone must have been enjoying the new found freedoms in Colorado or Washington State too much.”

I'm crying. OK, I'm laughing through the tears, but the tears are real. The CBO was crystal clear - lower earners will have the disincentive to work due to subsidy phase-outs, so they will be more inclined to retreat from the labor market:

However, people whose employment or hours worked will be most affected by the ACA are expected to have below-average earnings because the effects of the subsidies that are available through exchanges and of expanded Medicaid eligibility on the amount of labor supplied by lower-income people are likely to be greater than the effects of increased taxes on the amount of labor supplied by higher-income people.

And this is arithmetic anyonne can do, even an advisor to Biden. If the lower earners reduce their participation in the labor pool then the average wage of those WHO CONTINUE TO WORK will... (a) go up; (b) go up; (c) go up.

If you picked "go up", well done. If the folks earning $10 bucks an hour cut back on their hours and the folks earning $30 bucks an hour stick to their old schedule then total hours worked will fall and the average wage will rise even though no one gets a raise or works more hours.

As BS spin goes this could hardly get weaker. How Obama or his fellow progressives can think the working class will overcome the challenge of income inequality (the defining challenge of the age!) by slacking their way to success remains a mystery.

Comments

I will repeat my question:

If you believe that the reduction in person-hours worked, subsidized bybtaxpayer dollars, is sound policy, is there any principle that suggests it would be unsound to quintuple unemployment benefits, and make them permanent?

Danube, that's how I feel about mandatory mininum wages. If raising the minimum wage to $10 is good policy, why isn't raising it to $100 even better policy?

When proponents cry "No, raising it to $100 is silly!", my response is along this line : If you believe that raising it to $10 is eminently sensible, and raising it to $100 is completely silly, then where is the line between sensible and silly? Why is the line where you're drawing it? Should it be drawn somewhere else? Should it be drawn at all?

Eric, they will never, ever answer that question, and for the same reason Dave M will never answer mine: they love short-term benefits for a favored few, but steadfastly refuse to discuss the long-term harm to the society as a whole.

1) Hiring Incompetents to create a website
2) Lying about the security of the website
3) Lying to everyone about how well the website is working
4) Lying that it is signing up people easily
5) etc

you realize that it is no different whatever from the rollout of HealthCare.Gov, and as you see the reporters running around trying to corner the Former Head of "Cover Oregon", who has now fled the state for California, you discover that the Investigation is not even bothering to call her in to answer questions or do any testifying at all, so it appears to be exactly like the Federal cluster@#$% rollout; Lying, criminality and incompetence, but nobody will be held accountable and nobody is going to jail.

Thanks rich and daddy. I believe that photo was taken with my Nikon D3 full frame and a 14-22mm f2.8 lens. Depth of field is great even when right on top of the subject.
I was looking for that starburst twinkle through a teeny hole in the branches and leaves but couldn't really see it until I downloaded it to the computer.

I had a little twitter exchange with Mr Bernstein after one of his semi regular appearances on Kudlow awhile back. I believe in calling these people on the statements they make on air and some do respond.

The quarter round is in and painted and the master bath got painted tonight.

Quick trip to Island View in Gulfport tomorrow til Sunday.

We come back to pulling up the floor in the master bath and tiling it, painting the moulding in the master bath, retiling around the Jacuzzi in the master bath and pulling a line of tile in the shower and retiling it with glass tiles to match the new tile around the Jacuzzi and then I'm gonna make new vanity doors, restain the vanities and put new marble countertops on them with new faucets and new lights and build a linen cabinet to replace the knee hole make-up space between the vanities that's worthless space now. Then I get to sew all the window treatments in the 3 bedrooms and the master bath.

Then I get to go back to actual work.

The master bedroom is gonna be painted and refloored at night after work. Then the hallway is gonna be recarpeted and I'm gonna make new treads for the stairs to replace the carpet on them now.

>>>More than half of all Chinese multimillionaires have either left or plan to emigrate, according to surveys. Countries around the world are lining up to attract them, creating a growing business and economy around selling them residency.<<<

It appears David M doesn't have a basic grasp of math, and not a clue as to how insurance companies operate if he doesn't intrinsically comprehend that it is impossible to increase coverage and include
all comers without increasing costs.

I suggest we abandon any hope of educating him.

Holly, may I post your 12:27 post anonymously on an MD site I frequent? Incredible illustration of how people who vote on their teenage emotions-- "Everyone deserves health care"-- end up causing enormous harm.

Stephanie, I'd like to use yours too, about your husband's inability to find a PCP who takes Medicare.

I'd say "from unintended consequences," but I have come to believe that all that is happening was the intended consequence of this government takeover of 16% of the economy.

No problem anonamom post away. It's frustrating that you can't get a doctor who wants to treat you to treat you because the damn government won't pay the doc a "living wage" to treat Medicare patients.

The distinction to this argument today is that ObamaDoesn’tCare in fact doesn’t force employers to not employ these 2 to 2.5 million people but that these people will see that it is to their advantage not to work additional hours and will cut themselves off.
Wow! The government has create as disincentive to work, to be more productive, to remain in your station, to create more income inequality.
If that isn’t the ultimate argument against upward mobility, there just isn’t one out there.

What is going to happen is that the smarter and more industrious of the poor are going to be working off the books and not reporting it.

Over the last year I have had guys come by in trucks wanting to sell me firewood, guys who want to trim my trees and bushes, guys who want to shovel my walk and drive. Al of these have been adult men, not schoolboys or college kids.

I would bet there are also women who clean houses, babysit, and take in ironing for cash. My sister's neighbor cleans houses on weekends. I also bet that come spring the garage sales will be much more numerous.

None of this income will be reported or taxed. And I frankly do not blame these people one bit.

Our practice was bought by Eastern Maine Medical,the behemoth in central and eastern Maine. Last week,hubby had a nasty cold,he called the practice Friday and they said go to walk-in care,also owned by EMMC. Hubby told the PA,don't give me antibiotics(Crohn's disease). The PA said well,I'll give you a prescription anyway. Saturday evening,while preparing supper,he sliced his finger while dicing onions,a deep cut.So,back to urgent care,where he joked with the PA,I'm back! We have insurance and can also write a check.But,if we can't get into the doctor,what difference,at this point,does it make? The choices will become more limited as the doctors narrow their practices.

Marlene, I am so sympathetic. When I signed up for Medicare last full my insurance agent and I discussed whether to get a supplement or Medicare Advantage. I opted for a supplement at the highest level, called Plan F, which guarantees payment even for charges Medicare calls "exhorbitant." I figure MAYBE a doctor will see me if they think they will get more money than just a regular Medicare patient.

I don't know how well this will work. I have to go to my doc in March for my annual BP prescription, so we will see.

I saw these guys well before this was written at Ritchie Coliseum in Maryland and everything he writes is very accurate. A few years ago a buddy of mine called me up to see if I wanted to go see a reunion tour of theirs. Ordinarily I'm immune to the charm of such boomer nostalgia garbage but I was in on this. It was fun and I was glad I went but something was still missing from the original experience. Btw, Peter Wolf has done a number of solo albums which got cut out almost immediately but they're all very good examples of solid R&B and rock.

Muslim Exemption? is there a link describing that? That sort of sbuse will lead to unwinding exemptiions under this 'tax law'. Remember 5 members of the SCOTUS ruled there was no power under the commerce clause to impose the indivdual mandate.

Happy birthday, JiB, the particular passage relates to section 1402 of the internal reveneue code, which focuses on the Amish,
the Hutterites and other such sects, hence
Janet's riff on the subject, that she was going to become an Amish evangelical,

Hmmm...Who will Caudillo Fernandez blame? The International Banking Conspiracy? The US?

As to our troll last night, I have come to the conclusion that the criminal conspiracy known as the Obama administration has hired part time OFA activists to muddy the waters any way they can in light of one devastating report after another.

"If you want your plan, you can keep your plan" has morphed into "nanananana I can't hear you". And the ratfink at the top simply prevaricates further every time he is asked to explain his complete dishonesty.

Now Issa says he has e mails between Lerner and others indicating a back door, off the books set of policies to codify harassment of conservative groups.

Since we also have the case of Lisa Jackson/Richard Windsor and others, it may be a sign that the senior apparatchiks established a policy from the outset of KGB style deception. This would be a criminal conspiracy if it can be proven.

This should be red meat for investigative reporters. It goes right to the heart of government transparency.400+ visits by the IRS Counsel to the WH and no records of what was discussed? Capone and Luciano were not this good.

There are nine religious groups which are exempt from Social Security and medicare. Members of these groups have to fill out a form and get their religious leader or official to sign it. 3 copies get submitted to Social Security and IRS. You have to swear that you will not attempt to get any benefits.

In every single writing I have seen from insurance companies, they use Mennonites and Amish as the example. The religious group has to have a tenet prohibiting the use of insurance.

There are nine such religious groups, but nowhere can I find a list which lists them all, just the typical "such as the Amish."

Seems to me that the information on this is being deliberately obfuscated. I would like to know who all 9 groups are, and wouldn't be surprised to find out that not only Muslims but Scientologists are on it.

Most likely protected by a Halon system which protects documents whle quenching a fire. Usually computer controlled so hacking it is a strong possibility. Kirchner would have those resources. If true she and her Peronistas have blood on their hands. Wouldn't put it past her or her ilk.

Here's the New York view of Lefty Daily Beast about Walker. Most importantly, Walker is in contact with NY area $$$, and even the Daily Beast has to recognize the effectiveness of Walker's 'pro Taxpayer NOT anti-union' position. If walker beats a woman -- a faux centrrist woman-- in November, I think he gets all of the McCain/RudyG/Christie $$$. He becomes a fusion TP/Establishment candidate. As you know, I believe that is the best bet for 2016. http://news.yahoo.com/scott-walker-answer-104500407--politics.html

From the prior thread.Looks like the entire front page section of today's WaPo is devoted to attacking the latest CBO projection.And the front page devotes a lot of pace to a Brazilian program where people are each granted $20/month to pursue cultural activities.

I think the journalists need to start embracing the charm of poverty. Curtains are falling down?...well in a lot of countries there aren't hardware stores on every corner & evil "big box" Home Depots to run to & get the small hook needed.

All the little manufactured items we take for granted are hard to get in lots of countries. Replacement parts, curtain hooks, door knobs,...
The most mundane things are hard to get.
When all of the journalist idiots tear apart America...they don't realize what a wonderful country America is.
They sit in squalor & moan & then work to bring the same thing here.

Slightly amusing that Republicans have been preaching against the dangers of job-lock for years.....now that a negro has introduced a plan to give 2.5 million Americans a way out of job-lock Republicans are pro job-lock.

How shall our counter campaign go this fall.....'the GOP wants you to work more hours'.

btw Tom.....you about the cherryiest picking mother sucker in the history of cherry pickers...

TomM, I do note that you sre being disingenuous about the Dems' plan to pay the wages of Prog parasites sitting on their asses and doing nothing, VOILA Hollande's 75% tax rate. There will be fewer Americans working, but they will be paying FAR moar taxes.

When Mrs. JiB returned from her DC meetings, she brought Frederick a Redskins RGIII jersey and a NCIS Washington T-shirt. Which one do you think he wants to wear all the time? Its his favorite TV show but only the reruns on TBS or TNT - don't which one since she and he watch it while I read:)