Patrick Daugherty

Goal Line Stand

Week 1 Rankings

The journey across the desert is complete: The 2013 fantasy football season is finally upon us. But long though the trek has been, it’s important to remain patient, and not fall prey to Week 1 overthink. After a nine-month break, you’re just dying to start the 12th-round flier you’re positive is going to be the difference in your league. But there’s one fantasy credo that rings most true in Week 1: Start your studs. Yes, there are some spots where deviation from your masterplan will prove unavoidable. Say, for example, benching Eddie Lacy in his NFL debut against a fearsome 49ers run defense on the road. But you didn’t spend all winter, spring and summer preparing for this moment only to let a couple of rash decisions start you in an 0-1 hole. Stick with the process that got you here. There will be plenty of time to get cute before it’s all said and done.

Two quick notes. It wouldn’t be appropriate for me to take the baton handed off by Chris Wesseling (and Gregg Rosenthal before him) if I didn’t acknowledge the great role he’s had in shaping my career and football knowledge. Thanks Chris, and here’s to a great year. Also don’t forget to check out Evan Silva’s incomparable Matchups column on Friday. It’s the single greatest weekly article the fantasy industry has to offer, bar none. Here’s his preview of tonight’s opener.

Editor's Note: Rotoworld's partner FanDuel is hosting a one-week $25,000 Fantasy Football Contest for Week 1. It's $25 to join and first prize is $5,000. Here's the link.

Week 1 Quarterbacks

Rank

Player Name

Opponent

Notes

1

Drew Brees

vs. ATL

-

2

Aaron Rodgers

at SF

-

3

Tom Brady

at BUF

-

4

Matt Ryan

at NO

-

5

Andrew Luck

vs. OAK

-

6

Colin Kaepernick

vs. GB

-

7

Peyton Manning

vs. BAL

-

8

Robert Griffin III

vs. PHI

-

9

Russell Wilson

at CAR

-

10

Matthew Stafford

vs. MIN

-

11

Tony Romo

vs. NYG

-

12

Michael Vick

at WAS

-

13

Cam Newton

vs. SEA

-

14

Eli Manning

at DAL

-

15

Ben Roethlisberger

vs. TEN

-

16

Joe Flacco

at DEN

-

17

Alex Smith

at JAC

-

18

Ryan Tannehill

at CLE

-

19

Jay Cutler

vs. CIN

-

20

Philip Rivers

vs. HOU

-

21

Andy Dalton

at CHI

-

22

Carson Palmer

at STL

-

23

Matt Schaub

at SD

-

24

Sam Bradford

vs. ARZ

-

25

Josh Freeman

at NYJ

-

26

Terrelle Pryor

at IND

-

27

Brandon Weeden

vs. MIA

-

28

Jake Locker

at PIT

-

29

Blaine Gabbert

vs. KC

-

30

Christian Ponder

at DET

-

31

E.J. Manuel

vs. NE

Probable (knee)

32

Geno Smith

vs. TB

-

33

Matt Flynn

at IND

-

34

Chad Henne

vs. KC

-

QB Notes: The No. 1 fantasy quarterback each of the past two seasons, and three of the past five, Drew Brees begins the year with a readymade shootout against archrival Atlanta at home. Brees was a bit of a mixed bag against the Falcons in 2012, averaging 320 yards but posting a 3:6 TD:INT ratio. Five of those picks came in Atlanta, however, while the Falcons are breaking in a rookie starting cornerback in Desmond Trufant, and adjusting to life without John Abraham. There are few better fantasy bets than Brees in a dome.

On paper, it’s a bear of a matchup for Rodgers, but the 49ers pass defense sprang multiple leaks down the stretch last season. Rodgers was one of the few opposing signal callers not to take advantage, limping to just 257 yards in Green Bay’s Divisional Round loss. Nevertheless, this is a unit that can be thrown on. At least that was the case with “Cowboy” Justin Smith at less than 100 percent, and CB Chris Culliver getting picked on all postseason. The question now is, is Vic Fangio’s imposing unit back in the saddle that allowed enemy quarterbacks to rack up just 3,203 yards last season (No. 4 in the NFL). Can Green Bay’s taped-and-glued offensive line handle The Smith Brothers? They’re questions worth pondering, but if anyone deserves the “start your studs” benefit of the doubt, it’s Rodgers.

You know those bands that are essentially one member? The ones that call themselves a group, but are really just one core performer? Think The Shins or Queens of the Stone Age. That’s the Patriots and Tom Brady. That is not to say Brady hasn’t had some extremely important supporting players. But just like QOTSA and Josh Homme, the trains are always going to run on time in New England as long as it’s Brady conducting, no matter how many Wes Welkers come and go. Despite his entirely new pass-catching corps, Brady should feast on a Bills defense missing Stephon Gilmore and Jairus Byrd.

Billed as the top quarterback prospect since Peyton Manning, all Andrew Luck did as a rookie was go out and shatter Cam Newton’s first-year passing record. Now poised to make the leap from star to superstar as a sophomore, Luck couldn’t ask for a better opening week opponent than an Oakland team with expansion-level talent on defense. … Where to rank RGIII is one of the great mysteries of the young season. Will the Redskins drastically cut back on his designed runs? Will defenses bite on his play fakes as hard as they did in 2012? The only thing we know for sure is, Griffin has an excellent Week 1 matchup in an Eagles defense that might as well be called “The Shootout Express.” There could be some bumps and bruises as Griffin works his way back to game day 100 percent, but there’s going to be plenty of fantasy points against Philly.

We’re bullish on Cam Newton this season, we truly are. But the schedule makers couldn’t have dreamed up a worse Week 1 opponent for a player adjusting to a new offensive coordinator, and dealing with an undermanned rushing attack. We know by now that there’s nothing fake about Cam’s fantasy dominance (or smile), but Week 1 could be a low point in a season that won’t see very many of them. … Vick ahead of Cam? It’s all about Chip Kelly, and the likely shootout Philly will engage in with Washington. Vick no longer has youth on his side, but is finally in an offense tailor made for his skill-set. Few players have provided more disappointment the past few seasons, but Vick’s upside is worth one more QB1 gamble.

Don’t be surprised if Flacco makes like it’s the Divisional Round and drops a ton of yards on a Broncos defense that will be without Elvis Dumervil (opposing sideline), Von Miller (suspension) and Champ Bailey (foot). … Carson Palmer is the first living, breathing quarterback the Cardinals have had since Kurt Warner retired, but has a tough road matchup in a team that led the league in sacks last season, and boasts one of the NFL’s better cornerback duos. … 13.1 percent of Matt Schaub’s 4,008 yards came in one game last season. … E.J. Manuel could eventually prove to be the latest, greatest dual-threat fantasy revelation, but he’s not worth the QB2 dice roll in his NFL debut.

The journey across the desert is complete: The 2013 fantasy football season is finally upon us. But long though the trek has been, it’s important to remain patient, and not fall prey to Week 1 overthink. After a nine-month break, you’re just dying to start the 12th-round flier you’re positive is going to be the difference in your league. But there’s one fantasy credo that rings most true in Week 1: Start your studs. Yes, there are some spots where deviation from your masterplan will prove unavoidable. Say, for example, benching Eddie Lacy in his NFL debut against a fearsome 49ers run defense on the road. But you didn’t spend all winter, spring and summer preparing for this moment only to let a couple of rash decisions start you in an 0-1 hole. Stick with the process that got you here. There will be plenty of time to get cute before it’s all said and done.

Two quick notes. It wouldn’t be appropriate for me to take the baton handed off by Chris Wesseling (and Gregg Rosenthal before him) if I didn’t acknowledge the great role he’s had in shaping my career and football knowledge. Thanks Chris, and here’s to a great year. Also don’t forget to check out Evan Silva’s incomparable Matchups column on Friday. It’s the single greatest weekly article the fantasy industry has to offer, bar none. Here’s his preview of tonight’s opener.

Editor's Note: Rotoworld's partner FanDuel is hosting a one-week $25,000 Fantasy Football Contest for Week 1. It's $25 to join and first prize is $5,000. Here's the link.

Week 1 Quarterbacks

Rank

Player Name

Opponent

Notes

1

Drew Brees

vs. ATL

-

2

Aaron Rodgers

at SF

-

3

Tom Brady

at BUF

-

4

Matt Ryan

at NO

-

5

Andrew Luck

vs. OAK

-

6

Colin Kaepernick

vs. GB

-

7

Peyton Manning

vs. BAL

-

8

Robert Griffin III

vs. PHI

-

9

Russell Wilson

at CAR

-

10

Matthew Stafford

vs. MIN

-

11

Tony Romo

vs. NYG

-

12

Michael Vick

at WAS

-

13

Cam Newton

vs. SEA

-

14

Eli Manning

at DAL

-

15

Ben Roethlisberger

vs. TEN

-

16

Joe Flacco

at DEN

-

17

Alex Smith

at JAC

-

18

Ryan Tannehill

at CLE

-

19

Jay Cutler

vs. CIN

-

20

Philip Rivers

vs. HOU

-

21

Andy Dalton

at CHI

-

22

Carson Palmer

at STL

-

23

Matt Schaub

at SD

-

24

Sam Bradford

vs. ARZ

-

25

Josh Freeman

at NYJ

-

26

Terrelle Pryor

at IND

-

27

Brandon Weeden

vs. MIA

-

28

Jake Locker

at PIT

-

29

Blaine Gabbert

vs. KC

-

30

Christian Ponder

at DET

-

31

E.J. Manuel

vs. NE

Probable (knee)

32

Geno Smith

vs. TB

-

33

Matt Flynn

at IND

-

34

Chad Henne

vs. KC

-

QB Notes: The No. 1 fantasy quarterback each of the past two seasons, and three of the past five, Drew Brees begins the year with a readymade shootout against archrival Atlanta at home. Brees was a bit of a mixed bag against the Falcons in 2012, averaging 320 yards but posting a 3:6 TD:INT ratio. Five of those picks came in Atlanta, however, while the Falcons are breaking in a rookie starting cornerback in Desmond Trufant, and adjusting to life without John Abraham. There are few better fantasy bets than Brees in a dome.

On paper, it’s a bear of a matchup for Rodgers, but the 49ers pass defense sprang multiple leaks down the stretch last season. Rodgers was one of the few opposing signal callers not to take advantage, limping to just 257 yards in Green Bay’s Divisional Round loss. Nevertheless, this is a unit that can be thrown on. At least that was the case with “Cowboy” Justin Smith at less than 100 percent, and CB Chris Culliver getting picked on all postseason. The question now is, is Vic Fangio’s imposing unit back in the saddle that allowed enemy quarterbacks to rack up just 3,203 yards last season (No. 4 in the NFL). Can Green Bay’s taped-and-glued offensive line handle The Smith Brothers? They’re questions worth pondering, but if anyone deserves the “start your studs” benefit of the doubt, it’s Rodgers.

You know those bands that are essentially one member? The ones that call themselves a group, but are really just one core performer? Think The Shins or Queens of the Stone Age. That’s the Patriots and Tom Brady. That is not to say Brady hasn’t had some extremely important supporting players. But just like QOTSA and Josh Homme, the trains are always going to run on time in New England as long as it’s Brady conducting, no matter how many Wes Welkers come and go. Despite his entirely new pass-catching corps, Brady should feast on a Bills defense missing Stephon Gilmore and Jairus Byrd.

Billed as the top quarterback prospect since Peyton Manning, all Andrew Luck did as a rookie was go out and shatter Cam Newton’s first-year passing record. Now poised to make the leap from star to superstar as a sophomore, Luck couldn’t ask for a better opening week opponent than an Oakland team with expansion-level talent on defense. … Where to rank RGIII is one of the great mysteries of the young season. Will the Redskins drastically cut back on his designed runs? Will defenses bite on his play fakes as hard as they did in 2012? The only thing we know for sure is, Griffin has an excellent Week 1 matchup in an Eagles defense that might as well be called “The Shootout Express.” There could be some bumps and bruises as Griffin works his way back to game day 100 percent, but there’s going to be plenty of fantasy points against Philly.

We’re bullish on Cam Newton this season, we truly are. But the schedule makers couldn’t have dreamed up a worse Week 1 opponent for a player adjusting to a new offensive coordinator, and dealing with an undermanned rushing attack. We know by now that there’s nothing fake about Cam’s fantasy dominance (or smile), but Week 1 could be a low point in a season that won’t see very many of them. … Vick ahead of Cam? It’s all about Chip Kelly, and the likely shootout Philly will engage in with Washington. Vick no longer has youth on his side, but is finally in an offense tailor made for his skill-set. Few players have provided more disappointment the past few seasons, but Vick’s upside is worth one more QB1 gamble.

Don’t be surprised if Flacco makes like it’s the Divisional Round and drops a ton of yards on a Broncos defense that will be without Elvis Dumervil (opposing sideline), Von Miller (suspension) and Champ Bailey (foot). … Carson Palmer is the first living, breathing quarterback the Cardinals have had since Kurt Warner retired, but has a tough road matchup in a team that led the league in sacks last season, and boasts one of the NFL’s better cornerback duos. … 13.1 percent of Matt Schaub’s 4,008 yards came in one game last season. … E.J. Manuel could eventually prove to be the latest, greatest dual-threat fantasy revelation, but he’s not worth the QB2 dice roll in his NFL debut.

RB Notes:Adrian Peterson is gunning for 2,500 yards. My official analysis? Historic years are rarely followed up by seasons that are even more historic, and AD is unlikely to become the first player in league history to post back-to-back 2,000-yard campaigns. My unofficial analysis? AD is a cyborg, possibly not of this world, whose origins are worth a segment on Coast to Coast. … Doug Martin is going to eat against the Jets, and it’s going to be the first of 16 very large meals for the Muscle Hamster this season. … Perhaps the most underdrafted player by ADP this season (13.7), Alfred Morris should have little issue posting top-five numbers against an Eagles run defense that did its best Red Sea impression this preseason.

Marshawn Lynch vs. Luke Kuechly is a Week 1 matchup to watch. The Panthers have holes/question marks all over the roster, but “run defense” isn’t one of them. … Shane Vereen got all the hype this summer, but it’s still Stevan Ridley who will carry the mail in the Patriots’ run game. He’s facing a run defense that ranked 31st in the NFL last season, and allowed 204 yards, three touchdowns and 4.6 yards per carry to Ridley in their two meetings. … It’s quite possible the concerns about Arian Foster’s workload and durability will prove overblown, but coach Gary Kubiak has pledged to ease him into the season. 15-18 touches is our best guess for Monday, making this the rare week where Foster is more RB2 than RB1. At least for now it’s rare.

Fresh off a preseason where he averaged 7.5 yards per carry, David Wilson gets a defense missing its top run stuffer in Jay Ratliff, and perhaps its No. 2 edge presence in Anthony Spencer. The bells of stardom could soon be ringing for the No. 32 pick of last year’s draft. … Lamar Miller is the Dolphins’ unquestioned starter, but had to out-last Daniel Thomas, as opposed to vanquishing him. He’s a borderline RB2 when he could have easily made himself a higher-end one. … Bilal Powell is “starting” for the Jets, but we still expect Chris Ivory to monopolize early-down touches and notch the most carries. He could have a hard time putting his rough preseason behind him against the Bucs’ elite run defense, however.

One of the truly tough decisions of Week 1, Eddie Lacy is getting rewarded for his excellent preseason with a terrible matchup in the 49ers’ elite run defense on the road. With running lanes likely hard to come by in San Francisco, Lacy’s value will be touchdown dependent against a unit that’s surrendered just 10 scores on the ground the past two seasons. Lacy has the looks of an every-week RB2, but the FLEX spot is the safest place to stash him in Week 1, if not the bench if you go four deep at running back. … Ryan Mathews looked excellent in the preseason. He could make it mean something by showing something against a defense that allowed just five rushing touchdowns in 2012.

A hybrid player expected to see snaps all over the field, high-end FLEX play Shane Vereen couldn’t have a better matchup in a defense that’s missing Stephon Gilmore and Jairus Byrd, and surrendered a scandalous 2,333 yards on the ground last season. … If at all possible, let your opponents ride the Rashard Mendenhall and DeAngelo Williams pain train in Week 1. … Isaac Redman is starting in Le’Veon Bell’s absence. Here’s guessing he won’t do much producing. He of the 3.7 yards per carry a season ago is entirely touchdown-dependent. … We love Montee Ball, but the Broncos’ committee is best avoided until Ball establishes himself as the chairman, which we believe he’ll do. Concerns about his “failing to separate” from Ronnie Hillman and Knowshon Moreno are overblown. This is John Fox we’re talking about, after all. He makes rookies earn it.

There’s great hope amongst the fantasy community that Danny Amendola will seamlessly slide into Wes Welker’s old role, but it’s important to remember two things. 1. No “system,” no matter how receiver friendly, can will a player to 672 catches in six years. Welker’s talent, namely getting open at will, was a huge part of his success in New England. 2. To this point, Amendola has been no Welker. Amendola was an exceedingly useful player for the Rams, but his game was mostly “catch and fall.” Welker averaged 11.1 yards per catch in New England. Amendola has averaged 8.8 for his career. Now it’s true that number spiked to a more respectable 10.6 in 2012, and that Amendola was never surrounded by the most talent in St. Louis. But to expect him to simply pick up where Welker left off is to ignore what’s come before for Amendola, and sell Welker short as a player. Could Amendola transform himself into Welker 2.0 this season? Absolutely. Will he? The odds might be lower than you think.

Speaking of Welker, if it seems like he’s low on this list, that’s because he is. It’s not because the magic is suddenly gone. It’s just that even in perennially loaded New England, Welker never had so much competition for targets. How things shake out between Welker, Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker is one of the season’s great mysteries. Don’t be surprised if Thomas’ numbers stay largely the same, Welker catches between 85-90 balls and Decker’s value becomes even more touchdown dependent than it was in 2012. Decker is a good, good player. But competing with one of the game’s truly elite young wideouts and one of its savviest veterans, there’s a good chance he’ll get the short end of the stick.

Kenbrell Thompkins has been hyped more than the latest Superman reboot, but let’s not lose sight of the fact that he’s an undrafted rookie who’s yet to play in an NFL game. That is not to ignore what Thompkins accomplished this summer: Locking himself in as Tom Brady’s “X” receiver. But even with a good matchup on the docket, maybe let the guy play a real, live pro game before locking him in as your WR3. … Alshon Jeffery is a player with major room to grow in a passing attack that’s back on the rise. Lauded this preseason by everyone from his teammates to his coaches to the press, he might not be stuck in WR4 land for long. … Kenny Britt, on the other hand, is a player headed the wrong direction. Racked by soreness in his surgically-repaired knee this summer on the heels of a nondescript 2012, he’s going to be a shaky weekly bet with an erratic Jake Locker at the controls.

Be patient with Tavon Austin. He’s worth rostering, but the electric rookie had a tendency to try to make something out of the nothing in the preseason … and create bigger nothings. He needs time to find his NFL legs, and his role in the Rams’ remade offense. … Kendall Wright could be a weekly riser if his talent is allowed to show through. … Santonio Holmes could be a weekly riser if he decides to show his talent. … Marlon Moore is expected to be a one-trick pony in San Francisco. It’s not a trick that should result in much fantasy value. … Unless Darrius Heyward-Bey’s new deal included a new pair of hands, he’s not going to be running ahead of T.Y. Hilton in two-receiver sets for long, if at all. His plum depth chart placement could prove to be little more than coachspeak.

Week 1 Tight Ends

Rank

Player Name

Opponent

Notes

1

Jimmy Graham

vs. ATL

-

2

Tony Gonzalez

at NO

-

3

Jason Witten

vs. NYG

-

4

Vernon Davis

vs. GB

-

5

Greg Olsen

vs. SEA

-

6

Jermichael Finley

at SF

-

7

Jared Cook

vs. ARZ

-

8

Martellus Bennett

vs. CIN

-

9

Jordan Cameron

vs. MIA

Probable (-)

10

Zach Sudfeld

at BUF

-

11

Kyle Rudolph

at DET

-

12

Antonio Gates

vs. HOU

-

13

Fred Davis

vs. PHI

-

14

Brandon Myers

at DAL

-

15

Brent Celek

at WAS

-

16

Owen Daniels

at SD

-

17

Brandon Pettigrew

vs. MIN

-

18

Jermaine Gresham

at CHI

-

19

Julius Thomas

vs. BAL

-

20

Dwayne Allen

vs. OAK

Probable (-)

21

Coby Fleener

vs. OAK

Probable (-)

22

Zach Miller

at CAR

-

23

Scott Chandler

vs. NE

-

24

Anthony Fasano

at JAC

-

25

Tyler Eifert

at CHI

-

26

Delanie Walker

at PIT

-

27

Dallas Clark

at DEN

-

28

Luke Stocker

at NYJ

-

29

Zach Ertz

at WAS

-

30

David Paulson

vs. TEN

-

31

Kellen Winslow

vs. TB

-

32

Ed Dickson

at DEN

-

33

Charles Clay

at CLE

-

34

Travis Kelce

at JAC

-

35

Vance McDonald

vs. GB

-

36

D.J. Williams

vs. KC

-

TE Notes: More than any player at any position, Jimmy Graham has his own tier at the top. Don’t be surprised if he announces his return to full health in a big way against the Falcons. He’s caught 22 passes for 329 yards and four scores over his past four games against Atlanta. Even playing through a debilitating wrist injury, he managed a 7/146/2 line when the teams met up in New Orleans last Week 9, by far his best game of the season. … Jason Witten caught 20 passes for 177 yards against the Giants last season, 18 of which came at home in Week 8. That has little bearing on this weekend, of course, but he’s going to soak up targets in a likely shootout. As usual. … Playing extremely limited snaps in the preseason, Vernon Davis caught just four passes for 43 yards. You can either take that as a sign that he’ll fail to live up to the hype again, or ignore it like the meaningless statistic that it is. The 49ers need Davis. It would be a shock if he wasn’t an every-week TE1, and a high-end one at that.

Targeted a team-high six times in the Rams’ regular season dress rehearsal against the Broncos, Jared Cook has staked a strong claim to the title of “Sam Bradford’s security blanket.” Bradford already has “all the trust in the world” in the criminally underused former Titan, while SI’s Peter King called Cook the “single best player” he saw all camp. The question is, can the big-play threat Cook draw enough volume to not just flash as a TE1, but sustain as one? It shouldn’t take terribly long to find out. … Jordan Cameron has 26 career receptions. Don’t be surprised if he doubles that before the month is through.

One of the true wild cards of the 2013 fantasy season, Zach Sudfeld begins the year — and his career — with a dream matchup in Buffalo. Even if he flashes big numbers, it could be a misnomer in a Patriots offense that will change week to week, and soon have Rob Gronkowski back in the fold. But despite all the unknowns, Sudfeld needs to be 100 percent owned, and viewed as the best TE1 lottery ticket this side of Jordan Cameron. … Kyle Rudolph has as much upside as any player on this list. The problem is, his quarterback doesn’t. Rudolph’s beastliness in the red zone makes him worth a TE1 roll of the dice every week, but the fear of doughnuts will be ever present until Christian Ponder proves he can scare up more than 5.8 targets per week for his Gronk-ian tight end.

A step slower each of the past two seasons, Owen Daniels is a TE2 until proven otherwise. The presence of actual No. 2 receiver in Houston (DeAndre Hopkins) will do that. … Julius Thomas defines boom-or-bust as a TE2. He’s playing with a quarterback in Peyton Manning who made Dallas Clark a star, but who’s also never had a receiver trio like the one he has now. Big weeks will happen for Thomas, but they may be few and far between. … The same is true of Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener in Indianapolis, who appear poised to cancel each other out in Pep Hamilton’s tight-end friendly offense for the time being. They’ll be worth reassessing after we get 3-4 games worth of data. … Once a bonafide sleeper, Rob Housler needs to shake off a high-ankle sprain and rough preseason before he gets back in the TE2 conversation.