February 11, 2012

The lamentations of Team Romney count for little. They prattle about low turnout, as if the “front-runner’s” failure to excite the base is an asset....

Team Santorum understandably wants everyone to believe that this was a huge endorsement of their guy’s message and candidacy....

The single biggest factor in this campaign remains the fact that the base of the GOP is uncomfortable with Romney and refuses to believe that it can’t do better than the guy who invented Romneycare and talks to conservatives like he’s reading from a right-wing Berlitz phrasebook....

Santorum... is honestly and forthrightly committed to using government to realize his moral vision for America.... But... he is not the one the tea partiers have been waiting for.

I have no doubt Obama was always winning re-election, but the GOP Congress and SCOTUS will keep in check. He will not destroy the country in 4 more years and will have a decent President after him to repair the damage.

Romney should have run as an outside the Beltway outsider. He could ask Santorum / Gingrich:

Did you ever vote against a budget?What big spending bills would you have vetoed if you had been president in the last 20 years?Do you view what Washington did over the last 20 years as a failure or progress?What big spending changes will you make as president?

Etc.

But for some reason, he accepts the endorsement of the chronic aisle crosser John McCain who embodies alot of what is wrong in DC. So now he wonders why people are not excited about the Romney campaign.

No, Milton really isn't doing all that badly, but Goldberg & Co at what used to be National Review wanted a coronation. Problem is, the Republican Party doesn't have a crowning manual (unlike the Demos), so they did it the old-fashioned way.

They're letting the people decide.

PS AJ, Milton is running as an outsider. Look at his CPAC speech.

PPS Almost all the trolls are out today (waiting for Alpha and Freder), so they must be a lot more worried than we know.

I am beginning to think that the GOP power brokers are writing off 2012. Too hard, too "racist." They dream of their deep bench: Christie, Ryan, Rubio, even Daniels. They will all be tanned, rested and ready in 2016. Prez Mitt would just be in the way.

Even among the 2008 Democratic candidates it came down to either an ex FLOTUS carpet-bagging junior senator with a hubby who had an awful lot to hide ("Let's make the POTUS a family business, shall we?" ) or a junior senator from Illinois who had absolutely no accomplishments & a checkered political past. We know who won.

The stakes are high for conservatives, and so they want a boy-wonder. Well, ain't gonna happen.

I'm sorry, if Dukkakis was qualified to be the Democratic standard bearer, Romney is more than qualified to be the Republican.

No one on the R-A list wanted to run this time. Yo Jonah- groundhog day. This has been the field from day one.

Running against the leftwing media machine isn't exactly an alluring proposition. What we have to look forward to with 4 more years of this crap: Say hello to Castro/Chaves-esqe America, Greece, huge unsustainable debt, high unemployment (no matter what the media and the administration tell you) crony capitalism, punitive tax rates (as if they can get any worse) increased numbers of tax payer funded bureaucrats and government employees and a dwindling private sector (unless you pay to play). Say goodbye to ever seeing a balanced budget. Heck, say goodbye to ever seeing a budget, period.The idea of Obama selecting more Supreme Court picks makes me sick to my stomach.

Two ways to view this, either who was the Dim genius who encouraged the Repubs to fight each other via all the debates. Or, B0 is so awful (poll results) that all the Repubs are climbing over each other and forgetting their manners.

Yeah. I don't think there ever was a situation where a huge fraction of the 18 million Dems voting against their own incumbent. It is amazing how the Republican party seems incapable of using that to their advantage.

Romney is an equity firm manager and a good one as far as we know, just not a politician. However, he might manage to keep the bus on the road for four years while the country sorts itself out. That is the theme he had ought to campaign on and stop trying to be something he is not.And the country needs to sort itself out before a conservative Republican president can get anywhere with it. Remember the fiasco perpetrated by the Senate Republicans last month?

That said, there are almost 10 months to go before the election and anything can happen.I think that when Ben Bernanke says his prayers at night, he thanks the Lord that another day has passed, and the ice has not cracked under him yet.I would hate to be in the military and be assigned to the last combat battalion to pull out of either Iraq or Afghanistan.And that is just two of the most obvious potential disasters looming ahead.There is a full Rumsfeld matrix of others as well.

Yes Andy we get it - you are in triumphalist mode today and lording it over all Republicans. Your god Obama will win a 2nd term and you can go to the 2nd immaculation and spew your jizz all over the crowd.

The Republican bench is pretty young. And bad as the economy looked, they're aware that eventually it was going to improve and even a slight improvement supports the incumbent. This year's group was composed of candidates who had to seize their moment now. Jeb Bush had his own reasons. Unlike Gingrich he didn't want to drag his family through the mess.

I look at Obama and then look out to an imaginary camera and say "I can't believe we're losing to this guy".

A brokered convention would be grand as long as it's someone I like. Jeb would motivate the left in a way that not even Santorum or Gingrich could. Christie is a fighter but I have a feeling I wouldn't like about half of what he was fighting for. Daniels? Rubio?

Goldberg's right that it feels like a crap shoot at this point. The hard part isn't doing the right thing, it's knowing the right thing to do.

John Hinderaker did a better version of this article here: http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2012/02/is-2012-slipping-away-from-the-gop.php

Nut graf:

So, do I think the 2012 election is slipping away from conservatives, Republicans, and the American people? Yes, I do. This is a year in which it was incumbent on conservatives to pursue, soberly, the overriding goal of evicting Barack Obama from the White House. We didn’t do that; in fact, it wouldn’t be far off the mark to say that we made fools of ourselves by chasing one will o’ the wisp after another. I fear that in November, we will pay the price.

But it feeeeeelt so goooood to fall in love with Cain, Bachmann, Gingrich, and now Santorum. They were puuuuuure!

For swing voters it's very simple. If they're feeling decent by November they vote for the incumbent. If they're scared they vote against the incumbent. There is nothing any GOP candidate can do to change that dynamic. It's all in the lap of the gods.

It really boils down to whether you want to live in a nation that worships Gaia or worships God. The elites have made their choice. They worship Gaia. They are pagans. Immense cruelty MUST follow from that fact. The question is whether there are enough retrograde benighted bitter clingers to wrench us back from the cliff and reinstate God's mercy over this land.

Somewhat similar situation in that the Dems went into the cycle feeling very confident. After 8 years of Reagan, the Dems thought, we can beat this squeaky little patrician wimp GHW Bush. No sweat.

But then the field took shape and it was Dukakis, Jesse Jackson, Paul "The Bow Tie" Simon, Gephardt, a too-young Al Gore who at the time wanted to be thought of as a conservative, and Gary Hart, who looked like the favorite until he showed up on the cover of the National Enquirer with a blonde babe sitting on his lap.

Dukakis parlayed his ethnicity, raising tons of money from Greek-Americans, into a narrow win, and was leading coming into the fall, but Bush destroyed him.

The outcome of a brokered convention would be a lot better than the modern "selected by inside experts" conventions that Republicans have had lately. The coronations of Bob Dole and John McCain stand as proof of that.

The Republicans have bench strength. They should use it. Marco Rubio, Sarah Palin, and Paul Ryan are three potential candidates who would excite the base far more than any in the current crop of contenders.

I don't see a brokered convention. I think that it is more likely that Romney comes in at least close to having enough delegates, and giving it to anyone else would have such a reaction from those who supported him, that it would kill any chance at winning in November.

I have long felt that a brokered convention is just a way for national party leaders to engage in the sort of smoke filled backroom deals that used to be so common.

I predict that Santorum is going to fade, just like the rest of the alternatives to Romney have. He is too aligned with the social conservatives, and doesn't have much of a fiscally conservative record. (At least Gingrich has his Contract with America). To me, he comes across as a one-trick pony, with the one-trick being that he is stridently anti-abortion, anti-contraception, etc.

This sort of social conservatism works well with certain segments of the Republicans involved in the nominating process, but is unlikely to work at all well with the general voting population.

I just don't see Santorum having all that much staying power - though I was quite surprised by how well he did in Colorado, which would seem much more hospitable to Romney to me.

John - if GDP growth has been decent leading up to the election, no $5/gallon gas, no major foreign policy fuckup, no huge scandal then Obama will win by default. People always prefer the incumbent to the unknown.

Funny how Jonah is all for democracy until it doesn't go his way. A brokered convention would be beyond hypocritical.

Unfortunately, too many right wingers are living in their version of Obama fantasy land where politics doesn't exist, everyone realizes their candidate is a genius and will accomplish all their dreams. It's just as foolish and destructive as the attitude that got Obama elected.

"Palladian: what are the laws that you think liberals would pass/have passed that would be such a problem?"

Andy R- it doesn't matter which laws will be a problem. Some day a Repub will turn around and be Prez and follow suit. The problem is far too much central planning and control. Presidents like Obama could not run a candy store yet he wants to control a $14Trillion economy. And one day, a dopey Repub prez will try to do the same thing.

When the economy crashed in 2008, I wished there was a way to make Mitt Romney president. I still want that to happen. If ever there were a man with a unique skill set for the job for the time, it is Romney.

Alex, 2000 not so much, was working 3rd shift and the news said Bush had won so I switched back to Rock 'n' Roll and in the morning as I'm driving home get the word, not so fast!. And then the month long hangin', dimpled, pregnant chad fiasco when the rest of the world discovered what a banana Republic "we" really are lol.

And of course, Gore lost his own state and was a god awful campaigner. If he had picked Sen Graham of Fl as v-p. woulda, coulda, shoulda.

Didn't start discussing politics on the net, hot and heavy, until 2003. Now 2004, I was totally pissed as even w/all of Bush43's advantages, the right Dem candidate could have won a close election. Again, turdblossom's "genius" was registering 300/400k new voters in OH and FL between 2001 and Nov. 2004 and GOTV.

btw, 2005/2008 gave us Alito/Roberts so more for the liberals to be pissed about. Much like conservatives are pissed re: Sotomayor/Kagan. :D

Again, the yin and yang of winners and losers.

>

An aside, Thanksgiving 2000, was visiting my sister on L.I. to celebrate the holiday and my sister turning 50 on Dec. 24, a pre-birthday party and at the Canton airport a Rep politician, County Auditor, who worked in the same building as I from 1991 to 1995 were waiting for our flights and we calmly chatted about the comedy hour goings on in FL and then said goodbye and wished each other well. While in NY visiting my sister, politics was not discussed.

But yea, 2004 I was pissed for about a week and then you just have to let it go ~ unlike the craved lunatic conservatives at Althouse lol.

>

On "bright" side, (8) years of cheney/bush incompetency/ineptitude/corruption led to an African/American Muslim, born in Kenya becoming the 44th President of the United States of America! :)

Again, the yin and yang of happy liberals and disgruntled, sore loser, still in the fetal position conservatives.

You realize that this is a Rommey-booster's opinion of Santorum's platform?

This.

A number of commenters here (due to their own prejudices) want to believe this so much that they don't even question it. Please, I defy someone to give me one credible link that has Santorum saying he'd use the power of government to "realize his moral vision of America".

Why is it that, amongst the anointed (liberals and moderates), conservatives either have to shut up about their social views, or if they're not quiet, that means they'll use government to outlaw every birth control pill in existence?

I can think abortion is wrong. I can think that trying to talk someone out of one is the right thing to do. And I can also think that had I the power, I wouldn't use government to force that up on anyone. There's nothing unparallel about that.

I defy someone to give me one credible link that has Santorum saying he'd use the power of government to "realize his moral vision of America".

===============Terri Schiavo, and the Congressional subpeonas Santorum had issued to doctors and the trial judge to testify under oath before the Mighty Senators = about "engaging in the murder of an innocent woman".

Besides that, as Casey in the Pennsylvania race learned and used in ads - there is plenty of fodder in Religious Right gatherings then-Senator Santorum spoke to on new government involvement in promoting "good social values", fighting deviant social values, and government funding of "faith based groups engaged in public service".

Terri Schiavo, and the Congressional subpeonas Santorum had issued to doctors and the trial judge to testify under oath before the Mighty Senators = about "engaging in the murder of an innocent woman".

Love the scare quotes, but that's exactly what happened. As far as Santorum (and a lot of other people) are concerned, it was murder. They took the feeding tube out of a living, breathing woman, because she had become a burden to her husband, who wanted to marry someone else. Santorum was using the power he had under the constitution to stop someone from being killed. I should hope someone would do that for me if I were in such a vulnerable state.

And a subpoena didn't stop a judge from overruling the U.S. Senate and giving the "grieving" husband the power to pull the plug on his wife. So Santorum got some publicity, but nothing else.

Besides that, as Casey in the Pennsylvania race learned and used in ads - there is plenty of fodder in Religious Right gatherings then-Senator Santorum spoke to on new government involvement in promoting "good social values", fighting deviant social values, and government funding of "faith based groups engaged in public service".

Promoting, not codifying into law. Just like Nancy Reagan's "Say No to Drugs" campaign, it was a promotion. Unlike the Obama administration, which has put codified as law the right to have someone else pay for your morning-after pills.

Your first example is only partially valid. And your second missed by a mile.

I can imagine Romney as President. Romney seems Presidential. You have to give off a vibe of leadership. And it's not talking about leadership, it's actually having leadership qualities. Like discipline, self-control, etc. Romney has those in spades.

The big issue with Romney is that he is a bad campaigner. He is not quick on his feet. He is not funny. He is not articulate. He is a rich Republican who has almost zero populist instincts. He's a horrible candidate from that perspective.

He does give off a nice vibe. The candidate he reminds me of the most is George Herbert Walker Bush.

I think Romney will be our nominee. Most Republicans will be demoralized about this. But we are so frickin' united in our disdain for Obama that (hopefully) an uninspired campaign can win this thing.

The good news is that there are economic realities to socialism. You can only spin so much. Unemployment is high. Inflation is sky-high. The government lies about this by spinning the numbers. For instance, by not counting food or gas prices in the inflation numbers. But we all know that gas prices are way up, and food prices are up, too.

The Greek election is more important than the Republican nominee. If Greece elects a socialist, or they default on their debts, or both, we will start to see some real carnage in our markets.

I think the economic realities will matter a heck of a lot more than anything the Republicans do or say. As a race it's Dull, Uninspiring Mediocrity vs. Economic Disaster. Look for depressed turnout on both sides.

If you're in the market, oil stocks. I would definitely buy some oil stocks.

I really, really, really don't want to revisit the Schiavo case again. If we must, for just one starter among a host of them, we'll also have to consider the circumstances under which feeding tubes get put in the first place. Then we'll be arguing about interventions--place, time, purposes, ethics and so on--on yet another front. Of course, we can do that. Do we want to, ought we do so, NOW?

I think we have problems with overreach in terms of life (too much desire to control when life comes into physical being on this earth) and with overreach in terms of death (too much desire to control over when life departs physical being on this earth). It strikes me that on both fronts, there's too much overweening and too little humility.

Hinderaker points to Santorum's loss in 2006, but doesn't seem to realize that when faced with the same bad year for Republicans, Romney chose not to run for reelection. Well, that's one way to ensure that you don't lose, but I'm not sure that it proves that Romney is more electable than Santorum.

I think Santorum might have a better chance than Romney in Ohio, and I suspect that Ohio is the state that matters this year.