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Rob Ford on worsening unemployment rate: ‘Toronto is booming’

Toronto’s unemployment rate has been rising — from 7.1 per cent in August to 10.1 per cent in December.

At a news conference in Toronto on Tuesday, Mayor Rob Ford refuses to say the word "unemployment," preferring to speak about his success with job creation and economic growth. (Carlos Osorio / Toronto Star)

Mayor Rob Ford held a news conference in September to congratulate himself for Toronto’s unemployment rate, which fell from 9.4 per cent when he took office to 7.1 per cent in August — the lowest level in five years.

“This is proof that my administration is on the right track,” Ford said.

He added: “In January 2010, I promised to create jobs and tackle our unemployment rate. Another promise made, another promise kept.”

Ford had another news conference on Tuesday. At this one, he would not say the word “unemployment” at all.

The rate has been rising. The monthly seasonally adjusted figure for the city jumped to 8.9 per cent in September, then to 9.8 per cent in October. After a decline to 9.2 per cent in November, it reached 10.1 per cent in December.

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Ford refused Tuesday to directly address the worsening numbers. Instead, he cited more favourable jobs-related statistics, such as the increase since 2010 in the total number of employed residents. And he repeated a line from his September speech nearly word for word.

“I have made job creation and economic growth a key pillar of my administration, and I have fulfilled exactly what I said I was going to do,” he said.

Pressed about unemployment, he said simply: “It is booming. Toronto is booming today. We’re a global powerhouse.”

Ford’s September credit-claiming prompted eye-rolling among councillors. On Tuesday, centrist Josh Matlow said: “Following his own logic, if the unemployment rate is up, then he would be directly responsible for that, too. He’d be to blame. The reality is neither assumption is honest or makes any sense or is at all helpful to those who have lost their jobs.”

Economists agree: neither the August rate nor the December rate should be attributed to anything Ford has done or not done.

Compared to broad economic forces and federal and provincial governments, municipal government plays only a “minor role” in determining the city unemployment rate, said Alan Arcand, principal economist at the Conference Board of Canada.

Arcand said local property tax rates, economic promotion activities, and development policy all matter. But city hall’s decisions are far less significant than, for example, the state of the U.S. economy.

“I don’t think they have much control over economic activity,” Arcand said.

Councillor Michael Thompson, chair of the economic development committee and a Ford ally until the mayor’s crack cocaine scandal, also spoke at the September news conference. He said Tuesday that the city would do everything in its power to bring the rate down again — though he said, this time, that he does not think the city actually has much influence on it.

“Everybody knows the mayor embellishes a lot of things,” Thompson said. “That’s his prerogative. I won’t argue with him, won’t fight with him on that. That’s his prerogative.”

City economic development chief Michael Williams, who appeared with Ford in September, was unavailable for comment on Tuesday. Another official, economic research manager Peter Viducis, said he had believed at the time that the 7.1 per cent rate was “real”: it followed a “consistent” 18-month trend down from 10 per cent.

Viducis said it will take “a few more months” of a worsening rate to convince him of the “credibility” of the 10.1 per cent figure from December, which he believes may have been caused by statistical volatility.

Unemployment rates are always political, but it remains unknown whether any of Ford’s election rivals will attempt to attack him for his economic management — a perceived strength of his, regardless of the unemployment rate.

Ford will address the Economic Club of Canada on Jan. 23, the same day candidate David Soknacki will make an economic speech to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

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