Monday, May 01, 2006

2006 NFL Draft Grades

The 2006 NFL Draft was one of the more remarkable drafts in recent memory. From the craziness at the top with the Texans signing Mario Williams before Saturday, to the giant slides by superstars like Matt Leinart, Winston Justice, LenDale White, and Jimmy Williams, this draft had it all. The interesting thing about analyzing drafts is that some of the worst looking drafts on draft day can end up looking real good five years down the road. It is for that reason that fans must keep an open mind when discussing how their teams did. With that in mind, I have graded the drafts of each NFL team. My criteria for grading includes a number of factors. The most prominent being the overall value of the class, whether the team made the right move in the first round, and how teams did considering their specific situation. For instance, I won’t fail teams like Atlanta and Washington just because they didn’t have a first round pick. Heeding my own advice from earlier, I didn’t give a failing grade to any team. That doesn’t mean that there weren’t any major gaffes on draft day. That just means that I don’t feel comfortable calling any of the draft classes a total loss.

The Texans made a bold move in passing on Reggie Bush. Since they already have Dominick Davis in the fold, I think it was the right move to select someone else. However, I don’t think it was the right move to keep the #1 overall pick and take Mario Williams. How many people heard of Williams in college? He may end up being good but to take him #1 overall is a huge gamble considering his knock for being an underachiever. Half of the teams in the NFL were likely trying to trade into the top position including the Jets who had two first round picks. Based on the first pick alone, I would’ve graded the Texans at a C- but they made up for it with high value selections in the second and third rounds. Ryans, Spencer, and Winston will have an immediate impact in Houston.

I didn’t envy the Saints’ position by any means. Bush is a can’t miss prospect at a position that the Saints don’t need a “can’t miss” prospect. However, the Texans passed on Bush with Dominick Davis in hand. The Saints have Deuce McAllister who’s better than Davis. Considering how many things Bush can do (i.e. punt returns, pass receiving) he will fit it in to any offense. I would’ve explored trade options with the Jets or Raiders before taking Bush which they very well could’ve done. The rest of the Saints draft looks like a random group of subjects in a science experiment rather than a group of NFL players. Their one good pick was already a position of strength. New Orleans better hope that Bush is good.

The Titans punctuated Matt Leinart’s slide by taking Vince Young with the #3 overall pick. Apparently, Norm Chow, Leinart’s former Offensive Coordinator in college, didn’t have enough pull to bring Leinart to Tennessee. There is no doubt that Young is a physically gifted quarterback. I have no doubt that he’ll equal or pass the career of Daunte Culpepper. Getting LenDale White at #45 was a coup. White will likely take his slide in the draft personally and hopefully for the Titans, that means good things for the future even though they already have Travis Henry and Chris Brown in the backfield. Getting Jesse Mahelona at #169 was also a steal for a team that has dire needs on the defense. While the Titans brought in some talented players, they failed to address gaping holes on defense with early picks. Young and White might have been worth it but the Titans will continue to be awful on defense next year.

The Jets made an excellent pick by taking D’Brickashaw Ferguson over Matt Leinart. Even if Chad Pennington gets hurt again, success in the NFL is built on the offensive and defensive lines. The Jets will have an athletically gifted tackle for the next 15 years barring an injury. Nick Mangold was the top center in the draft providing the Jets with a second building block on the offensive line. Kellen Clemons may be a reach at #49 but some analysts think Clemons could end up being the Tom Brady of this year’s draft. Anthony Schlegel is a hard-nosed MLB with the ability to excel in the NFL. The Jets did a good job in selecting talented players with potential. Leon Washington and Brad Smith were excellent late round gambles. I do think that Eric Smith going in the third round was a bit high but maybe the Jets know something that I don’t.

Brett Favre told the Packers’ front office that he would come back if they showed him that they were serious about winning this year. Clearly, this 13-man draft class shows that the Packers are living up to their promise to Favre. There are no less than seven potential Pro-Bowlers in this draft class. A.J. Hawk will be no worse than a poor-man’s Brian Urlacher. He will be a star immediately. The Packers needed help at linebacker and on the offensive line. They brought in two solid prospects in each area. Colledge and Spitz should provide immediate relief to an overmatched line. Hawk and Hodge will bring athleticism and ability to the linebacker corps. The Packers also needed to fill the void left by Javon Walker at receiver. While it remains to be seen if Greg Jennings or Cory Rodgers can give the Packers a dependable target, the Packers tried to address the position. The Packers also made two low risk-high reward picks in bringing in Will Blackmon and Ingle Martin. This was an excellent draft.

The Niners had two first round picks and they used them wisely. Vernon Davis should make things much easier for Alex Smith. Davis could be to Smith what Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates were to Trent Green and Drew Brees. Manny Lawson fills an immediate need at defensive end. Some analysts thought Lawson was one of the most underrated players in the draft. Parys Haralson was an excellent value at #140. He will add help to a overmatched defense. The Niners made some interesting picks in the latter rounds. Unless Brandon Williams and Michael Robinson turn out to be solid NFL-ers, the strength of the Niners draft was with their two excellent first round picks and the theft of Haralson in round five.

The Raiders are an aging team with needs at every position with the exception of wide receiver. While it’s possible that the Raiders can get by with Aaron Brooks/Kerry Collins, Lamont Jordan, Randy Moss and Jerry Porter on offense this season, it would not have been possible for the defense to “get by” with the group of players slated to start the ’06 season. The Raiders brought in three players with star potential in the draft. The Raiders made a lot of teams upset by picking Michael Huff at #7. He will be a star in Oakland. Thomas Howard is an unheralded linebacker who will be a solid NFL player barring injury. Darnell Bing was a high value pick at #101 overall. I question the Raiders selecting Paul McQuistan at #69 overall but the offensive tackles were going off the board quickly which may have left the Raiders no choice. Overall, the Raiders addressed team needs which should pay immediate dividends in ’06.

The Buffalo Bills made one of the worst draft picks in NFL history by taking Donte Whitner at #8 overall and that has nothing to do with Whitner’s potential in the NFL. There is little doubt that Whitner would’ve been available 10-15 spots lower in the draft. The Bills could’ve traded the 8th pick to drop down in the first round. There were a number of teams clamoring for a chance to draft Matt Leinart as he slipped further and further down the first round. The Bills made another terrible pick at #26 picking John McCargo who was almost certainly going no higher than the late second round. The Bills don’t get a failing grade, though, because they made some nice picks in the later stages. Ko Simpson and Kyle Williams are high values in the 4th and 5th rounds. Ashton Youboty may have also been a stretch at #70 but at least Buffalo made an effort to improve its secondary. Whitner and McCargo may end up being fine NFL players. Regardless, the Bills goofed big time on their two first round picks.

After the Lions made Ernie Sims their first round draft pick at #9 overall, the Lions could earn no higher than a C+ in my book. So, considering they earned a C+, things didn’t go all that bad after the first round. There are a lot of people that think Sims was a great pick at #9. While I understand the excitement Lions fans must have over not picking a quarterback or a wide receiver, the Sims pick is only slightly better than the Bills taking Donte Whitner. Ernie Sims is an OLB that stands 5’11. Who was the last OLB that excelled in the NFL that stood less than six feet tall? Sims has experienced a number of concussions. Who was the last NFL player to experience multiple concussions and then go on to have a solid career, let alone a career at all? If there’s one position where a player shouldn’t have a history of concussions, it’s at linebacker. Even worse is that while Matt Leinart was falling down the boards creating a situation where the 9th pick was being coveted by a number of teams, Matt Millen had already made up his mind that he was not going to trade the pick. How can a GM decide not to trade the pick before hearing the offers? There were so many question marks on Sims that if Millen really wanted him, he could’ve traded down and still taken Sims. I could go on and on about how bad the Lions messed up this pick but it starts to get old after a while. Jonathan Scott and Fred Matua were two of the best value picks in the entire draft. Hopefully Daniel Bullocks becomes what many people were hoping Michael Huff would become. Aside from the first round gaffe, the Lions ended up with a nice draft class.

The Cardinals were the lucky benefactors of the Bills’ and Lions’ refusal to trade down in the draft. Leinart fell right into Dennis Green’s hands. The Cardinals needed a quarterback and they might have gotten the best one in the draft. Every pick the Cardinals made was an excellent value. Latui may have been the best guard in the draft. Pope will give Leinart an athletic freak to throw to for years to come. Watson, along with Pope, was slated to be a first round draft pick in many mock drafts. Jonathan Lewis is a tremendous value at #177. This draft class is clearly a change from the classes of the past. This team will be a force to be reckoned with in the future and this draft class will be one of the big reasons why.

The Broncos had an up and down draft. I can’t fault the Cutler pick. For a team as good as the Broncos, it is OK to take risks in the draft. If Cutler turns out to be a Pro-Bowl quarterback, then the Broncos made one of the best moves of the draft. Even if he doesn’t pan out, the Broncos won’t feel it. The Broncos also used the draft to pick up Javon Walker from Green Bay. When healthy, Walker is easily one of the five best receivers in the NFL. Greg Eslinger will be a starter on the Broncos’ offensive line for many years. He was a steal in the 6th round. Elvis Dumervil was a low risk-high reward pick. The Broncos made some slick picks with high reward potential. However, Tony Scheffler was a reach at #61 especially with Leonard Pope and Dominique Byrd still on the board. The Broncos had a chance to bring a game-changing tight end into the mix with Javon Walker. If Cutler doesn’t work out, this could end up being a weak draft class.

The Ravens have fallen off a bit on defense in recent years. The main reason for this is that the defensive line isn’t clogging up the middle like it used to do. As a result, Ray Lewis isn’t free to roam around searching for a ball-carrier to destroy. Haloti Ngata is just what the doctor ordered. Ngata will free up room for Lewis and Peter Boulware creating havoc on defense. Chris Chester will provide much-needed help on the offensive line. The Ravens made some interesting picks by taking unheralded players. LaCasse was a value in the 7th round. While Ngata was a brilliant pick, the rest of the draft falters. The Ravens could’ve done much better with their later picks but it’s important to note that seven of their picks were in the fourth round or later.

The Browns were Green Bay-lite in the ’06 draft. With needs at virtually every position, the Browns drafted at virtually every position. The defense will be deeper and better with the addition of Wimbley, Jackson, Minter and Oshinowo. All four of those players could be starters this season making this an extremely successful draft for Cleveland. Travis Wilson and Jerome Harrison will provide some depth on offense. Neither will make an immediate impact but they likely won’t have to. Vickers was the top FB in the draft. Cleveland will look back on this draft in ten years and consider it one of the best in franchise history.

No team in the draft had a better first and second round combination than the Eagles. I was shocked that no team traded up to take Winston Justice as he free-fell out of the first round. Many analysts felt that Bunkley was better than Ngata. Justice will immediately pay off for the Eagles. Max Jean-Gilles was a steal in the fourth round. Jason Avant and Jeremy Bloom will help the Eagles immediately in the passing game and special teams respectively. Virtually all of the Eagles’ picks were excellent value with the exception of Chris Gocong in the third round.

For the first time in recent memory, the Rams have put together a stellar draft. With the exception of taking two tight ends in the first three rounds, the Rams brought in value with every pick. Tye Hill was the best cornerback in the draft. Claude Wroten is a dominating defensive tackle. Victor Adeyanju and Mark Setterstrom were also excellent values. This draft class may not produce an All-Pro but this class will anchor the Rams’ franchise for years to come.

When it seemed like every team was rich with two picks per round, the Dolphins represented the poor by only having three picks in the first six rounds. The Dolphins did their best to bring in value with each pick. Jason Allen was probably a reach at #16. A trade probably could’ve netted an extra second round pick and still allowed Miami to draft Allen. Derek Hagan should provide depth at receiver. Joe Toledo is a project who has potential. Rod Wright is a great pick in the 7th round. Nothing jumps out as being great but the Dolphins did about as good as could be expected with the limited picks they had.

The Vikings had four picks in the first two rounds and they have virtually nothing to show for it. Chad Greenway is a solid linebacker who will help the Vikings on defense. After Greenway, the only good value picks were Edwards and Blue. If my team had three second-rounders, I would’ve hoped for much more than what the Vikings got. This draft was light in numbers for the Vikings and will be light on impact as well.

I like Bobby Carpenter as much as anyone. He’s a relentless linebacker who’s much closer to A.J. Hawk than most people realize. However, he might have been a stretch at #18. The Cowboys could’ve traded down ten spots and still picked Carpenter. The Cowboys did get good value with Pat Watkins and Montavious Stanley in the 5th and 6th rounds. Fasano in the second round was a bit puzzling considering the Cowboys have Jason Witten. Overall, this draft will yield help down the road but it remains to be seen who will be doing the helping.

The Chargers made a splash with their first two picks. Cromartie should give the Chargers a nice 1-2 punch at cornerback with Quinten Jammer. A team as good as San Diego can afford to pick equal parts on need and best available. Cromartie may qualify as both. Marcus McNeil is a steal at #50. McNeil should give the Chargers power on the offensive line for years to come. Tim Dobbins was a good value in the 5th round. Charlie Whitehurst could provide some insurance in case Phillip Rivers falters or gets injured. The Chargers didn’t bring in much in the later rounds but the first four picks were good enough.

The Chiefs had a relatively weak draft. Tamba Hali was supposed to be a top 15 pick earlier in the year but he fell on most draft boards making this pick a bit of a stretch. However, it’s understandable why the Chiefs would target at talented defensive end with their first pick. Unfortunately for the Chiefs, there picks after Hali didn’t get better. Bernard Pollard is a decent safety but was probably a stretch in the second round. Brodie Croyle may end up being a solid back-up in the NFL but the Chiefs have other needs that needed to be addressed. The Picks after Croyle were questionable at best. If I were the GM of the Chiefs, I would’ve made a serious run at Javon Walker.

No surprise here. The Patriots only got better with their ’06 draft. Laurence Maroney is going to cause teams fits in the Patriots system. He was one of the more underrated players in the draft. Chad Jackson was a steal at #36. His speed will open up the passing game for Tom Brady. David Thomas was underrated headed into the draft. Ryan O’Callaghan and LeKevin Smith were excellent picks. The Patriots had as good of a draft as anyone.

Tampa Bay’s best pick may end up being Alan Zemaitis at #122. He’s the only pick in the first four rounds that may have been rated higher than where he went. Davin Joseph was not a good start for the Bucs. Joseph was one of the top rated guards in the draft but going #23 was far too early. Jeremy Trueblood will provide some depth at the tackle position. The jury is still out on Trueblood and Maurice Stovall. If those two players end up being solid NFL-ers, this draft may look a bit better in a few years. As of now, the Bucs failed to make a splash.

The Bengals certainly had an intriguing draft. They took a cornerback with “potential” at #24 which is a combination that makes most NFL fans extremely nervous. Andrew Whitworth was a solid pick in the second round. Frostee Rucker is probably remembered more for his name than anything he did on the football field. Domata Peko might end up being better than a fourth round pick. A.J. Nicholson was a low risk-high reward pick. The Bengals didn’t surprise or disappoint. This is a draft class that could really go either way.

The Giants made two high value picks in the first and second round. Kiwanuka might be the highest value pick in the first round at #32. Sinorice Moss was thought to be a first round pick but fell all the way to the Giants at pick #44 of the second round. Both players will help the Giants this year. Gerris Wilkinson is a solid linebacker for a 3rd round selection. The rest of the draft wasn’t impressive but the later rounds usually aren’t.

There was only one team in the draft that did worse than the Bears and that was Buffalo. The Bears traded out of the first round to take a guy they could’ve gotten in the third round. Each of the Bears’ first three picks was earlier than those players were expected to go. The Bears badly needed a receiving threat at the tight end position. With the deepest pool of talented tight ends in years, the Bears came up empty. The Bears were in a position to fine tune a roster that was good enough to make the playoffs last year. Instead, they dropped the ball.

Just a few weeks ago, Williams was thought to be a top 15 selection. Instead, he fell into the Panthers lap at #27. Carolina had more pressing needs than at the running back position but considering how injury prone its backs have been, Williams will provide a much needed insurance policy. Richard Marshall has first round talent which is good for Carolina considering they got him at #58 overall. Stanley McClover was an excellent selection in the 7th round.

I really like what Jacksonville did in the draft. Mercedes Lewis will give Byron Leftwich a talented pass-catching threat at wide receiver. Maurice Drew is an underrated back who could end up being a bona fide starter in the NFL. James Wyche and Dee Webb were some of the better picks in the later rounds. Jacksonville clearly made the most of having only six picks.

Indy fans can’t be happy with this group. The Colts badly needed help on the offensive line. Instead of using a 1st or 2nd round selection on one of the many highly rated offensive lineman, Indy waited until the 5th and 6th rounds. Joseph Addai is a running back with “potential”. However, the Colts could’ve traded up three spots and nabbed Deangelo Williams. For a team that’s only a few pieces from being a Super Bowl Champ, this draft comes up short.

The Seahawks brought in three solid players with their first three picks. Rob Sims is an excellent value in the fourth round. He will help fill the void left by Steve Hutchinson. Kelly Jennings will give the Seahawks depth at cornerback. It remains to be seen if Jennings will live up to being a first round selection. He might have been a better value later in the draft. Darryl Tapp certainly has potential. For a team that reached the Super Bowl, you can’t complain with bringing in three solid players to an already impressive roster.

The Steelers had one pick total in rounds 1 and 2. They had eight picks in rounds 3-7. The Steelers had one of the better drafts in the NFL. Santonio Holmes is a solid wide receiver that will help fill the void left by Randal-El. Anthony Smith is a starting-caliber safety. Orien Harris was one of the better value picks in the entire draft at #133. Omar Jacobs could end up being one of the better quarterbacks in the draft. He will give the Steelers some insurance for Big Ben. Overall, this draft will help keep the Steelers machine well oiled.

If it weren’t for the heisting of Jimmy Williams in the second round, Atlanta would’ve received a D. The Falcons badly needed help in the secondary and there was no way they could’ve imagined Williams being on the board for their first pick. With only five picks in the draft and no first-rounders, the Falcons have to be content with Williams.

The Redskins were a little bit like Atlanta in that they had no first round pick. Unfortunately for the ‘Skins, they had no third or fourth round pick either. The best value pick may end up being Kevin Simon in the 7th round. Rocky McIntosh might have been a bit of a stretch in the second round but he may help fill the void that Lavar Arrington left. The ‘Skins reached on virtually all of their late round selections. This was one of the worst drafts of the weekend.

3 comments:

No question! I think it's safe to say that I had no idea who or how good Marques Colston was when I wrote that. It sure would be nice if the Lions could pick up a guy like that in the SEVENTH round! I love the Saints. I'm rooting for them to win it all.