Russian blogger Denis Mokrushin published a lengthy “diary”consisting of Facebook posts by a Ukrainian self-described “office plankton”, a Maidan supporter and participant who found himself sucked into the UAF as part of the infamous “4th wave of mobilization” in early 2015. The diary is interesting for a variety of reasons, including the description of the low quality of the 4th-wave mobilizees (“the bottom of society”), the “totally f***** supply system” of the UAF, the squalid living conditions, all-pervasive drunkenness at all levels of the Ukrainian military machine, not to mention the absurdity of what passes for military training these days. Though it is in Russian, the accompanying photographs tell the story pretty well on their own.

However, the most intriguing entry is the one dating from March 11, 2015 in which he writes that the “brigade commander” told them they’d be deploying to the Lugansk region to “carry out combat missions” around April 16th. Granted, that’s a pretty all-encompassing term which might mean simple checkpoint duties, but it could also mean something much more ominous. Moreover, if the assignment was in fact checkpoint duty, the brigade commander would have likely told them just that, in order to assuage their concerns.

Kiev does have a “now or never” incentive to attack—just as the 4th wave troops reach their units, those who were called up last year are supposed to be released upon completing their terms of service. These are by far the most experienced troops the UAF has at its disposal. Once they are gone, the combat ability of the UAF will sharply decrease. Likewise there is little hope that the UAF will replenish its armor and artillery stocks any time soon. If anything, its holdings of heavy weapons will continue to decrease due to wear and tear (tracked vehicles, in particular, require considerable maintenance when actively used and abused) and accidents.

Moreover, by then Kiev will have another tranche of IMF aid in hand, which will make pleasing Western donors less of a priority. It will also open a short “window of opportunity” for another “short and victorious campaign” until the need to beg the IMF for another tranche appears. And, who knows, maybe this time the floodgates of NATO wunderwaffe deliveries will be flung open.