WinningEdge Blog

Wayne Root: Finding Upsets in the NBA's First Round

The NBA Playoffs begin Saturday, so you know that THE KING OF UPSETS WAYNE ALLYN ROOT is already hard at work trying to find potential upset calls in any of the eight first round series and on a game-by-game basis. Today I'm going to talk to you about general principles for finding shockers in the first round of the NBA's postseason.

First, it's important to remember is that it's much harder for a team to score an upset in a full series than it is in an individual game. The best-of-seven format strongly favors superior teams to express that superiority over the long haul. With that in mind, when trying to find a series upset:

*You'd better be SURE the wrong team is favored!*You'd better have a matchup edge for the dog that will work for four victories*You'd better find a weakness on the favorite that they can't do anything to fix*You'd better be sure your dog can win on the road

There are some years where there just aren't any meaningful upsets in the first round. The heavy favorites coast. A series or two is priced at a coin flip, which doesn't have a dog. There are occasionally some very big upsets that really pay off for smart handicappers. Those contain the elements I described above.

On a game-by-game basis, it's much easier to find some spots here and there where the dog can win outright. The above fundamentals still apply. But, now you get to add in potential flat spots for favorites. As I've always told you...smart upset calls involve live dogs AND vulnerable favorites. Favorites are most likely to get caught napping when:

*They enter a series overconfident*They win the first game in a blowout*They carry a 2-0 series lead on the road and are favored to win Game Three*They carry a 3-0 series lead and relax because they now Game Five is at home

Obviously there are potential pitfalls in that sequence if the superior team is destined to sweep! You don't want to get caught chasing a dog game-by-game through a disaster. You want to try to pinpoint the spots that make the most sense for a shocker. Among the indicators I use are:

*Local media coverage that may be quoting overconfident players*Boxscore stats that show the favorite shot way over its head*Boxscore stats that show unequal officiating in the most recent game*Media coverage about a home dog that's going to get very intense crowd support

The worst time to try for an upset is with a dog that doesn't have many weapons...is playing in front of a hostile road crowd or indifferent home crowd...and is matched up against a favorite that's motivated to get the series over with quickly (much more common these days with veteran teams who want extra rest leading into the next round). The best time to try for an upset is with a weapon-filled dog that has a matchup advantage they can exploit, playing in front of a boisterous home crowd or the opponent's "too cool" home crowd, against an opposing favorite that's either overconfident or positioned to take a game off mentally.

You regulars know I can't get specific about any of the coming matchups. I need to protect that information for my clients. I can say that there are some very big plays on tap based on what I've already seen regarding line potential in the market. And, I'm confident that more great plays will pop up on the fly as the matchups work their way through the process.

Before the second round, I'll be able to review for you what some of these situations turned out to be. And, then we'll talk again about any new dynamics that may be in play when the final eight are going head-to-head. I'm expecting some very competitive basketball in the later rounds (particularly in the Conference Finals and the Championship Series), where you can often zig-zag your way to upset calls as head coaches make adjustments.

For help finding the best betting opportunities on the card this weekend and all through the first round, you can purchase my top plays right here at the website with your credit card. If you have any questions about which of my long term programs best suits your individual needs, please talk to my representative in the office at 1-877-ROOT-WINS. Call during normal business hours any day this week. Be sure to ask about full season baseball and the complete NBA Playoff package.

I'll be back with you early next week with what will probably be another NBA report. We'll see what happens when the stars hit the hardwood Saturday and Sunday. There may be an important baseball development that bears further discussion. THE KING OF LAS VEGAS will always keep you on top of important developments.

Vegas is really buzzing this week with all the talk about the Playoffs, a big boxing event, and early action in Major League Baseball. The Triple Crown horse races are just around the corner. It's a great time to be a sports bettor in the sports betting capital of the world. That means it's time for YOU to go to W.A.R. alongside WAYNE ALLYN ROOT!