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Sudbury race 'a dead heat' — Oraclepoll

The city where three roads meet could see a three-way race for provincial representation this spring.

A recent phone survey conducted for The Star by Oraclepoll shows Sudbury -- known to first peoples as an intersection of three routes -- split almost evenly between the NDP, Liberals and Progressive Conservatives.

Jamie West is out in front, but only by a few percentage points.

Of the 450 voters sampled between Oct. 20 and Nov. 1, just over a third -- 34 per cent -- said they would be most likely to choose the New Democrat.

Breathing down his neck are PC candidate Troy Crowder, with 31 per cent, and Liberal incumbent Glenn Thibeault, at 30 per cent. The Greens trail farther behind, with just five per cent. The Greens have yet to nominate a Sudbury candidate.

"I think reasonably we thought Thibeault was going to be No. 3, given all of what's gone on," said pollster Paul Seccaspina. "It's not been a good press year, or a good couple years, for him. But he's still hanging in there, with three in 10 decided voters."

The riding has gone NDP orange in the past, most recently with the election of Joe Cimino in 2014, so it's not a huge surprise that West might have an edge.

That said, the lead is far from comfortable.

Twenty per cent of those sampled in the recent poll said they were undecided, noted Seccaspina, and three points is a slim cushion.

"Really you're looking at a statistical tie -- a dead heat," he said. "When I look at the numbers, that's the story."

The other story, though, would be just how strong Crowder -- a first-time candidate tapped by the party this summer -- is polling already.

The riding hasn't gone blue since Jim Gordon claimed it for the Tories in the 1980s, and in the last general election Paula Peroni garnered less than 14 per cent of the vote for the PCs. In the ensuing byelection, that share dropped to a mere 8.5 per cent.

Crowder said Monday he is encouraged by the numbers but knows there is a long way to go before the writ gets dropped, presumably in June.

"I don't take anything lightly," he said. "It's like the first period of a hockey game -- it's not something I'm going to bank on. I'm going to keep pushing ahead until election day."

The candidate enjoys name recognition from his days as an NHL player, and counts family in the area who are also well known for their charitable and community work.

"People who know me know I am doing this because I love Sudbury and I want it to be a better place," he said. "I've lived all over the world but always knew this was the place I was going to live, where I would make my home base."

He said young people deserve opportunities to make a living in Sudbury and more must be done to boost and diversify its economy. "We're lacking in so many areas that should have been addressed if you're staying on top of the issues and the demographics."

If more Sudburians are leaning PC this time around, Crowder said it speaks as much to the record of the governing Liberals as it does to his resume.

"I think the people of Ontario are fed up with what's going on with this government," he said. "The waste and mismanagement and corruption -- there's a list of things you could go into why they're fed up, and I think the people in Sudbury are no different."

Apart from capturing voter intention, the Oraclepoll survey also broke down support for each candidate in terms of age, gender and income level.

Crowder and the PCs are most popular among middle-aged (35-64) males, noted Seccaspina, while the Liberals draw a lot of support from women and retirees of both genders.

New Democrats, meanwhile, poll well with younger people (18-34) and those earning a lower wage.

West said his party has always been up front about its working-class roots and sympathies.

"That's our cornerstone," he said. "Our party's founded out of farmers and labour unions, and we're never ashamed to talk about it and say we're working class."

He said the Liberal Party will talk about helping working families, but too often their policies have hurt this demographic. "The sale of Hydro One is not helping working families," he said.

West said he was out to support striking college faculty recently and found himself in front of Thibeault's constituency office. "It struck me I've been to Glenn's office a couple of times, rallying for Hydro One or teachers," he said. "If I'm MPP, I need to be committed so that workers don't have to show up and rally around my office for me to listen to them. I should be at least going to the picket line and finding out what the issues are."

The NDP is determined to bring Hydro One back into the public sphere and implement pharmacare -- both issues that resonate with Sudburians, said West, when he goes door to door.

"I think people are disappointed with Kathleen Wynne and are looking for change," he said. "There's that saying, 'Liberal, Tory, same old story' -- the Liberals tend to govern much like the Conservatives do, and the answer to everything for the Conservatives seems to be to privatize and cut. We've all been tightening our belts for a long time and we're not seeing any trickle-down effects."

The poll numbers are heartening to the NDP hopeful but, like Crowder, he said there's a lot of campaigning to come and he's not about to coast.

"I've very inspired by the results but -- and I know this is a cliche -- it's the main poll that matters, the one that happens on election day," he said. "My main focus right now is basically talking to people, introducing myself, and trying to make positive change in Sudbury, with the hope that the poll matches the outcome in June."

Efforts were made to reach Thibeault but the MPP was not able to respond by press time.

Seccaspina said the results may not flatter the incumbent but he also wouldn't be surprised to see the Liberal gain ground in coming months.

"Seven out of 10 say they are not voting for him, but he's still in the ball game," said the pollster.

The dragged-out byelection scandal didn't help the Sudbury Liberal, he said, but it's not clear how much it will really hurt him come election day.

"Are people going to go to the ballot box based on a scandal?" wondered Seccaspina. "I don't know -- probably not. People held their nose last time around, when there was the gas plant scandal, and still voted for the Liberals. They voted for stability and tradition."

He said the outcry over hydro rates was largely silenced earlier this year when the Wynne government, with Thibeault as energy minister, announced a break for consumers of 25 per cent.

"We've been polling this for a while," he said. "Backtrack a year, hydro rates were No. 1 across the board. What does Wynne do? She dealt with the issue. Now you're Patrick Brown or Andrea Horwath and you're trying to explain to the public how this debt financing has worked, and it's a tall order to pull off, because people are seeing immediate benefits."

Seccaspina said 30 per cent for Thibeault is probably "rock bottom" for the incumbent.

"I don't think there's room to go lower, but there's room to go higher," he said. "And that's the scary thing for the other two candidates."

jmoodie@postmedia.com

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Sudbury Riding Survey

450 residents over the age of 18 were sampled between Oct. 20 and Nov. 1

They were asked: "If a provincial election were held today, which party and their candidate would you most likely vote for or be leaning toward?"

The poll was conducted by live operators, who reached households using both land lines and cellphones only