Fillon takes centre stage from the right

The politician they called “Mister Nobody” now looks more like “The Man with No Name”.

In this year of political surprises, few can claim as stunning an upset as François Fillon. On Sunday he was elected to be the presidential candidate for Les Républicains (LR), the main conservative party in France, with 66.5 per cent of the vote in a head-to-head second round run-off against Alain Juppé, the mayor of Bordeaux.

The actual presidential election will take place in April and May 2017.

Despite the Parti Socialiste being in complete disarray, with the incumbent President Hollande at a record low approval rating of 4 per cent and waiting for December to announce whether he will run again, it is wrong to think that the normal preference for “alternance” will continue in France and that Sunday’s play-off between Fillon and Juppé was a de-facto presidential election.

Emmanuel Macron, the recently resigned minister of the economy, is a rising star and has declared his intention to stand as an independent with a radical approach to fixing France. Marine Le Pen of the Front National (FN) is waiting in the wings to take up the baton from Brexit and Trump, to pull in the anti-Europe, anti-elite, anti-establishment vote that is as strong in France, with its struggling economy, as it is elsewhere. Mr Trump’s campaign manager, Stephen Bannon, has been linked with the Le Pen’s FN. It is even possible that the Socialists could resurrect themselves, depending on President Hollande’s decision to run and, if he declines, their primary elections that are planned for January.

The candidature of François Fillon could not be worse for the prospects of Ms Le Pen. He has run a consistent campaign, recognising that France needs serious reform, and has inherited the mantle of France’s “Mrs Thatcher” on this account – though cultural differences could never allow an accurate allegory. Mr Fillon has a series of considered measures to bring about his reform based on his characteristic pragmatism, as opposed to the ideological rhetoric of Ms Le Pen.

Without Mr Fillon, Ms Le Pen could, with reasonable certainty, expect a place in the second round two-person presidential run-off next May. Her place is now more likely to be occupied by Mr Fillon, depending on how the initial number of left-wing candidates split the centre-left in the primary round vote.

The success of François Fillon was unthinkable a few months ago and is evidence that France, in its turn, is in the throws of a major disruption to its political system.

At the end of October, Mr Fillon had only 12 per cent support in a seven candidate race to become the LR presidential nominee. This campaign had been dominated by Mr Juppé and Nicolas Sarkozy, France’s previous President. Mr Fillon had only about 10 per cent support when he began his campaign, with some considerable raising of eyebrows, in May 2013.

At the time, he was the first mainstream politician to speak candidly about the poor state of the economy and of the values and institutions in France.

Throughout November the Fillon campaign gained momentum and he definitively won the first round election on November 21 with 44 per cent of the votes, followed by Mr Juppé at 29 per cent. In third place Mr Sarkozy, with 21 per cent, was eliminated from the competition.

The key themes of François Fillon’s plan to reform France and reduce government spending by €100 billion over five years include:

Cut the number of civil servants by 500,000, from the current number of about 5,000,000 (the civil service includes teachers, hospital staff, police, train drivers, etc.)

Reduce the tax burden on companies to encourage start-ups and cut unemployment, which has remained stubbornly around 10 million throughout the five-year presidency of François Hollande

Transfer €40 billion of social charges from business and €10 billion from individuals to a consumption tax with a two-point increase in VAT

Relax labour market constraints by cancelling the 35-hour working week and enabling local arrangements with employers for flexible working (with majority voting by local employees)

Raise the national retirement age to 65

Cancellation of the ISF – a national tax on the wealth of individuals

Mr Fillon has been open throughout the campaign that his personal values arise from him being a conservative, catholic Frenchman. This has attracted support from like-minded groups, such as the Marriage pour tous, but has opened up his position to insinuations of him being anti-abortion, homophobic and even anti-Semitic. Mr Fillon has made clear that nothing in his 30-year political life gives credence to such suggestions.

He asserts, without ambiguity, that France should not become a multicultural society, but that persons who wish to live in France need to do whatever it takes to integrate themselves into French society.

“The divorce should be serene but it should be rapid … The objectives are clear, the English are leaving but they should not become our adversaries … Neither hostility nor deference.”

Mr Fillon went on to demand that the European financial passport should be withdrawn from the UK and that euro clearing services should be moved inside the euro zone.

Indeed, he told assembled parliamentarians that the euro itself should be developed as a reserve currency, with a harmonised company taxation, in order to protect the European economy and companies from punitive measures such as those imposed through adherence to American legislation.

The [Brexit] divorce should be serene but it should be rapid … The objectives are clear, the English are leaving but they should not become our adversaries … Neither hostility nor deference

“In the wake [of Brexit] we should hold out a hand to the French living in the UK and those who think they should belong in Europe”, Mr Fillon said.

On foreign policy, Mr Fillon recommends a closer relationship and understanding with Vladimir Putin’s Russia. Nevertheless, his position on Europe centres on its economic importance and independence in a global economy, “without obligations to sign a destabilising transatlantic treaty, nor submitting to the economic dominance of Asia”.

On matters of defence, European co-operation is a priority. Border controls and control of immigration into Europe cannot be managed by economic measures alone, he said. Real European border controls with the latest technologies and intelligence are needed. Adding that above all, “our security is achieved by a military defence”.

Reliance on America for protection is not reliable where Islamic totalitarianism is threatening many parts of the world, he said.

Nevertheless, Mr Fillon told the Assemblée Nationale, there should never be a Europe composed of federal states, as the states are too different for this to succeed. History has taught the lesson: “the more that nations are restrained, the more their nationalism becomes aggressive”.

Mr Fillon picked-up his Mr Nobody nickname as he served as Prime Minister for the whole of Nicolas Sarkozy’s five-year presidency. His methodical, considered character diametrically opposed the impulsive, combustible and highly media-seeking president. Yet he pursued his restrained path for the full duration, demonstrating his perseverance and pragmatism.

If he does make it to the Élysée Palace, he may be able to add determination to see his measures through.

News Bites

May to hold talks with Merkel in Berlin
Theresa May is due to hold talks with German Chancellor Angela Merkel as she seeks to make progress on negotiating Brexit. The PM will travel to Berlin for the meeting at the Chancellery. It comes a day ahead of a speech on Saturday in which she is expected to set out the “security partnership” she wants to maintain with the EU. The UK is under pressure to reveal more detail about the final relationship it wants with the EU. Mrs May and her ministers are setting out what has been dubbed “the road to Brexit” in a series of speeches. BBC news, February 16

UK aims to keep financial rules close to EU
The UK is ready to set out its vision for how it wants financial services to operate after Brexit and favours an ambitious “mutual recognition” of regulations to preserve the City of London’s access to the EU. Under Britain’s proposal, the UK and the EU would recognise each other’s regulatory and supervisory regimes and would have aligned rules at the point of Brexit, with a mechanism that would monitor any divergence. Three senior figures briefed on Brexit discussions in the cabinet said that the government will back the proposal, which is also favoured by Mark Carney, the Bank of England governor. Financial Times, February 16

Business leader warns May against harsh immigration policy
British companies are facing a recruitment crisis, with labour shortages hitting critical levels in some sectors, according to a business leader who has urged the government to produce details on a post-Brexit immigration system. Adam Marshall, the director general of the British Chambers of Commerce, said the lack of candidates for some jobs was biting hard, and he warned ministers against bringing forward a “draconian and damaging” visa or work permit system. Surveys by the BCC showed that nearly three-quarters of firms trying to recruit had been experiencing difficulties “at or near the highest levels since [BCC] records began over 25 years ago”, he said. The Guardian, February 16

Lecturers want ‘radical’ tuition fee review
University staff are calling for a “radical” overhaul of tuition fees and higher education funding in England in a review of student finance. Sally Hunt, leader of the University and College Union, says the review must be more than “tinkering at the edges”. The review, expected to be formally announced in the near future, follows a promise by the prime minister to examine the cost of university. Theresa May said the review would show “we have listened and we have learned”. Ms Hunt, whose members are threatening strike action next week in a pensions dispute, says there needs to be a “fundamental look at university funding”. BBC news, February 16

Shampoo ‘as bad a health risk as car fumes’
Shampoo, oven cleaner, deodorant and other household products are as significant a source of the most dangerous form of air pollution as cars, research has found. Scientists studying air pollution in Los Angeles found that up to half of particles known as volatile organic compounds (VOCs) came from domestic products, which also include paint, pesticides, bleach and perfumes. These compounds degrade into particles known as PM2.5, which cause respiratory problems and are implicated in 29,000 premature deaths each year in the UK. Traffic had been assumed to be the biggest source of air pollution. The new findings, published in the journal Science, led to warnings that countries may struggle to hit pollution targets, with most tackling vehicle emissions. The Times, February 16

US rejects China bid for Chicago Stock Exchange
The US has rejected a proposed merger between the Chicago Stock Exchange and a Chinese-linked investor group. The decision comes after more than two years of reviews by officials. The tie-up was initially approved by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, pending further approval by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). But US politicians, including President Trump, have said letting a Chinese firm invest in a US exchange was a bad idea. Under the proposal, the Chinese-led North America Casin Holdings group would have bought a minority share of the privately owned Chicago Stock Exchange. BBC news, February 16

Labour gets 16,000 emails in five days urging it to consult on Brexit
More than 16,000 people have emailed Labour over the past five days, urging the party to consult members on Brexit after MPs said the topic was being ignored by its most senior policy body. The emails from party members will be examined by the party’s national policy forum (NPF), which meets this weekend in Leeds, and whose members include the shadow cabinet and trade union leaders. Labour has set up eight policy commissions since last year’s general election, to consult members and develop policy, but none focus on Brexit. The party has said Brexit is covered under the international policy commission, involving Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary, but that commission is not at the moment accepting submissions on Brexit. The Guardian, February 15