Abstract

Measurements from the winter of 1994–95 indicating removal of total reactive nitrogen from the Arctic stratosphere by particle sedimentation were used to constrain a microphysical model. The model suggests that denitrification is caused predominantly by nitric acid trihydrate particles in small number densities. The denitrification is shown to increase Arctic ozone loss substantially. Sensitivity studies indicate that the Arctic stratosphere is currently at a threshold of denitrification. This implies that future stratospheric cooling, induced by an increase in the anthropogenic carbon dioxide burden, is likely to enhance denitrification and to delay until late in the next century the return of Arctic stratospheric ozone to preindustrial values.