Fantasy Beat

The Unsexy, Underrated Gavin Floyd

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Maybe it is just something about this group of drafters that does not like Floyd, because last season in this same exercise, he went 101 picks lower than his ADP. I get that Floyd is not exactly the sexiest pick for starting pitchers, but why is he being treated as if he has the plague two straight seasons by the Fantasy411-sponsored industry mock drafters?

Over the past four seasons, Floyd has provided a variety of attractive fantasy skills but has yet to put it all together in the same season. He has been remarkably healthy, avoiding the disabled list for his entire major league career outside (though he did have two soreness issues in September but didn’t land on the DL thanks to expanded rosters). His best season ERA-wise was 2008 when his LOB% was 71 percent, although it’s sat between 67 to 70 percent (league average is around 72 percent), which explains some of the discrepancy between his ERA and FIP. That might be a little worrisome, but the sample is still small enough where panic isn't warranted. His low strikeout rate has jumped up over the past three seasons, and while it is trending downward, so is his walk rate. His home run rate is acceptable given his hitter-friendly home ballpark, and his WHIP has been very good for an American League starter outside of some BABIP misfortune in 2010.

According to Baseball Reference’s Play Index tool, only 42 pitchers have pitched a season from 2008 to 2011 in which they met each of the following criteria:

Clearly, the regular mock drafters and draftbots do not see eye to eye on Latos, who has the largest gap. Meanwhile Floyd is being bunched in with one pitcher coming off major surgery and another who is currently unemployed with a very bad back. Is lack of sexiness the new market inefficiency or something?

Mike Petriello discussed him last week as well; Floyd is what he is. He isn’t sexy and he is unlikely to have a big season of wins for a rebuilding White Sox team, but he is consistent in regards to workload, ratios, and strikeouts. As long as he is going to be lumped in with pitchers that are returning from injury or are currently unemployed, he should be targeted in drafts. Floyd is entering his final guaranteed year in Chicago, but the White Sox do have a team-controlled option for 2013 at $9.5M. Given their current state of affairs, the team may be forced to exercise that since their farm system is emptier than the “Kim Kardashian for President” campaign chest, but the team could also trade him for younger talent, which would likely lead to a more favorable fantasy environment. Either way, there is a lot to be said for getting someone with Floyd’s health record and skill level in the final rounds of a mixed-league draft or in the single dollar days of an auction. If he is this overlooked by the “experts,” he could be even more overlooked in your own local leagues.

Jason Collette is an author of Baseball Prospectus. Click here to see Jason's other articles.
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Stop it, you have uncovered one of my favorite values. Floyd has been on nearly every team of mine in the past few years. There are a handful of similar pitchers who form the core of my staff that are always solid and unsexy. My mules.