Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.

Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic

Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.

Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic

Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

SPC AC 011235
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 AM CDT SAT SEP 01 2012
VALID 011300Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF AR NEWD INTO SRN
IL...
...SYNOPSIS...
REMNANT ISAAC CIRCULATION WILL GRADUALLY COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE LARGER SCALE WLYS THIS PERIOD AS THE LOW CENTER CEASES ITS
WWD/NWWD MOTION AND BEGINS TO MOVE EAST ACROSS MO AND INTO WRN IL
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. WHILE UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES THE CNTRL AND
SRN U.S...MODEST MID LEVEL FLOW AND TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
WILL CROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN/NRN ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS...AS
WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC.
...AR TO SRN IL...
MODELS ARE FORECASTING AN AXIS OF STRONGER DESTABILIZATION WITHIN
THE SRN/SERN FLANK OF REMNANT ISAAC CIRCULATION LATER TODAY. DRY
SLOT WRAPPING INTO THE CIRCULATION FROM OK/KS INTO AR/MO PER MORNING
SATELLITE IMAGERY APPEARS TO COINCIDE WITH THE CORRIDOR OF GREATER
POTENTIAL DESTABILIZATION LATER TODAY FROM AR NEWD INTO SRN IL.
GIVEN PLUME OF RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO
THE 90S IN THOSE AREAS WITH GREATER SFC HEATING...MLCAPE OF
1500-2000 J/KG AND WEAK INHIBITION SHOULD RESULT. PERSISTENT ASCENT
AROUND THE LOW CIRCULATION WILL AID/SUSTAIN TSTMS MOVING INTO THE
INSTABILITY AXIS WHERE THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL CAPE AND
HODOGRAPH CURVATURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONGER UPDRAFT ROTATION AND
THE CHANCE FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AND/OR DAMAGING DOWNBURST WIND
EVENTS.
...NRN GREAT BASIN...
A SERIES OF RELATIVELY FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL SPREAD
NEWD FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE NRN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. ONE OF
THESE FEATURES WAS TRACKING ACROSS NRN UT THIS MORNING ACCOMPANIED
BY RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. WHILE SOME CONVECTIVE CLOUD
COVER AND GENERALLY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION WILL
LIMIT DESTABILIZATION...SOME LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE INSOLATION
SUFFICIENT TO BOOST MLCAPE INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE. DYNAMIC
LIFT...TERRAIN INFLUENCES...AND RELATIVELY FAST MID LEVEL SWLY FLOW
ON THE ORDER OF 40KT...SHOULD SUPPORT CLUSTERS OF MORE
ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT STORMS POSING BOTH HAIL AND WIND HAZARDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE FOCUS FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE STORM
COVERAGE CURRENTLY REMAINS MASKED BY EARLY DAY STORMS AND
ILL-DEFINED SFC FEATURES. HOWEVER...SOME OF THIS REGION MAY REQUIRE
GREATER SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF STORM
CHARACTER AND EVOLUTION BECOME CLEARER.
...MID ATLANTIC...
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF THE PA/MD BORDER WITH
AREAS OF STRONGER DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION DEVELOPING ALONG/SOUTH OF
THE FRONT FROM SRN PA ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION AND INTO THE
CAROLINAS. WHILE MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN MEAGER...WEAK HEIGHT FALLS TRAILING THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MAY PROMOTE TSTMS ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR ALONG AND EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN HIGHLANDS. A COUPLE OF
STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS CAPABLE OF TOPPLING TREES.
..CARBIN/ROGERS.. 09/01/2012
CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z