Hot Air survey results: Electoral battleground edition

Patrick IshmaelPosted at 10:45 am on April 30, 2011

States had to be rated a 5 or better to be put in the Republican column. In cases where a state was rated less than a 5, Advantage Obama.

A reminder, the battleground states were: New Hampshire, Indiana, Missouri, Wisconsin, Virginia, Nevada, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Colorado, Michigan, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, and Iowa. The remainder were either likely or safely in the hands of one party or another, and were divided accordingly; if you think I erred in thinking a state wasn’t competitive, please say so.

Over 2000 Hot Air readers cast ballots. The table of overall scores follows:

(“In State Avg” is how residents of the state rated their own state.)

Generally speaking, state residents ranked the GOP’s chances in their state higher than their non-state counterparts. There were two exceptions: Pennsylvania and Iowa, both of whom were more pessimistic about the GOP’s chances than non-Pennsylvanians and Iowans.

I’ve color-coded three maps to represent different aspects of the data.

The first is the electoral map of voters who rated their own state (the “In State Avg”). If residents of a state know the political climate of their battleground state the best, then Hot Air readers think the Republican will defeat Barack Obama in the electoral college, 286-252. Republicans take New Hampshire, Indiana, Missouri, Wisconsin, Virginia, Nevada, Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina in this scenario, and lose Colorado, Michigan, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, and Iowa.

The second is the electoral map of voters who are non-residents of the rated state. So, for instance, the Pennsylvania rating here encompasses all votes cast, except those from Pennsylvanians. If dispassionate non-residents know best, then Hot Air readers believe the Republican will defeat Barack Obama in the electoral college, 272-266. Republicans gain Iowa, but lose New Hampshire, Wisconsin, and Nevada.

And finally, the last map is of the states where both residents and non-residents agree a state is likely going to the Republican. In this “agreement map,” the Republican loses to Barack Obama, 272-266. Here, Iowa has moved into Barack Obama’s column, as residents disagreed with non-residents by just enough to throw the votes to the President.

Below is a map I created that totals to the very least number of votes a Republican can take — 270 — and still win. The difference between this and the “agreement” map is New Hampshire flips to the Republican. It’s a modest map, and one I don’t think is altogether unlikely.

Any of these seem more likely than the others? Tell me in the comments, or on Twitter.The monthly candidate survey is posting tomorrow, so stay tuned.