Abacha's death
was strange and totally unexpected, but the succession was fast and
clear. Gen Abdulsalam Abubakar, his loyal Chief of Defence Staff, stepped
immediately into his shoes as president.

Abubakar was not the most senior soldier. He even had
to be promoted to the rank of full general as he took up his new appointment
as president, but he was seen as a professional soldier with no political
ambitions of his own. He had always been totally loyal to Abacha and
had even set up the military tribunal that had tried and condemned to
death Abacha's former No.2, Gen Oladipo Diya and the five other senior
officers, arrested for plotting the anti-Abacha coup in December.

Gen Abubakar is seen to be an Ibrahim Babangida man. He
was a classmate of the former president at Bida school and the two men
have neighbouring houses in the Niger state capital, Minna. Babangida
has come out strongly in support of Abubakar since Abacha's demise.

The
inner councils of the military establishment chose Abubakar, not because
he was the most obvious successor, but because he was a compromise candidate
with no apparent personal political ambition of his own. He may yet
be an interim choice, vulnerable to a coup if he decides that he likes
power and wants to hang onto it as a military ruler. Other factions
in the army may depose him if he hastens too fast towards civilian rule
or is too soft over the release of detainees.

Before Abacha's sudden death, Abubakar was one of those
pressing for a rapid end to military rule. Speaking at a seminar to
mark Navy week, a short time before Abacha died, he said "the survival
of the country depends on a rapid and peaceful transition to a lasting
democracy". Clearly he then had in mind proper civilian elections
according to the original timetable