Russia reloaded. What should the West expect from Russia? A look ahead to the next five years.

By
Dmitri Trenin

July 2018

The renewed conflict between Russia and the US – one that harkens back to the Cold War yet remains essentially distinct from the former – began in 2014 and has intensified ever since. Russia fundamentally opposes global American hegemony and remains profoundly skeptical of the prospects for a liberal world order. This confrontation is unlikely to dissipate and its effects, above all on Europe and especially on Germany, are best mediated through tactical considerations. This is only possible where interests converge or coincide.

In the next five years, Russian relations to the United States and European countries may be marked first by heightened rivalry and later with growing tensions. The Europeans have no reason to fear unprovoked incursions by Russia …

Democracy remains unimaginable without freedom of the press

By
Detlef Prinz

March 2018

In Germany, we are proud of our constitution – and rightfully so. After the terror regime of the National Socialists, the authors of the German Basic Constitutional Laws decided that it was of utmost importance to create a constitutional democracy in which the protection of human dignity, fundamental human rights and civil liberty was guaranteed …

The EU must win the conflicts of the future

By
Sigmar Gabriel

February 2018

Since the beginning of the 21st century, Europe has rarely been associated worth power. Complaints about Europe’s weakness are the rule, especially among those Europeans who too often favor depressive self-reflection over strategic observation, Germany included. Only one hundred years ago, just before World War I, European powers were at their imperial peak – and …

“America first” means America alone

By
Constanze Stelzenmüller

February 2018

In past decades – a time we may yet come to refer to wistfully as “the good old days” – America’s national security elites have tended to be somewhat blasé about the National Security Strategy (NSS). In 1986, a Congress alarmed by US policy failures in Vietnam, Iran and Grenada had decreed that this document …

For almost seven decades, NATO has helped keep the peace in Europe. This zone of stability has not only benefitted NATO members on both sides of the Atlantic, but the broader Euro-Atlantic community and our neighbors as well.

Our Alliance has been successful because we have continued to adapt to the ever-evolving security challenges we …

Germany: Good for the UN

By
Detlef Prinz

February 2018

In summer 2018, the 72nd General Assembly of the United Nations in New York will decide on Germany’s application for a seat on the Security Council in 2019 and 2020. Germany’s application for one of the non-permanent seats was announced in June 2016 by then Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier. As a German citizen, I like …

Brexit is about more than just trade; it’s also about security

By
Wolfgang Ischinger and Stefano Stefanini

February 2018

In mid-December the European Council authorized Brexit negotiations to move from a divorce settlement to forging a new relationship between the European Union and the United Kingdom. The clock is ticking. Brussels and London have barely a year left to lay the foundations for their future partnership. Failure to do so would have disastrous strategic …

Russia and the US must agree on shared rules, set up common control centers and develop a system of cyber control

By
Michael Stürmer

February 2018

The Cold War was by and large better than its reputation, especially in hindsight. It imposed, as never before, a kind of long nuclear peace upon the global powers and forced minor players to conform. French philosopher Raymond Aron described what he saw in telegram-style: “Guerre improbable, paix impossible.” But the Cold War is over, …

Keeping Washington tethered to the international community during the president’s tenure will make it easier to repair the wreckage he leaves behind

By
Charles A. Kupchan

February 2018

One down, three to go. And judging by Trump’s first year in office, the next three should be long and painful. As the US backs away from is traditional role as team captain, its “America First” foreign policy is setting the world on edge. Trump has already pulled out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the …

President Trump cannot prevent us from forging stronger trans-Atlantic tiesl

By
Metin Hakverdi

February 2018

As far as the world economy is concerned, it is interlinked,” deadpanned the famous German satirist Kurt Tucholsky in the early 1930s. Although uttered in the Weimar Republic, the remark applies today as much as ever. Indeed, while some observers see President Donald Trump’s words at this year’s World Economic Forum in Davos – “America …

American primacy

By
Thierry de Montbrial

February 2018

There are two main reasons the United States will maintain its primacy on the world stage. The first is that, in a world of weak or broken identities, theirs remains strong, despite racial tensions and the growth of social inequality. The US is a land of immigrants, who swept the plate clean – almost – …

Brexit and the future of European society

By
Robin Niblett

February 2018

Britain’s vote to leave the EU has added a new layer of complexity to the process of strengthening European security. It coincides with a chilling of the transatlantic relationship following the election of Donald Trump as US president; persistent Russian probing of the political and military resilience of European governments and societies; and the intensification …

Time for a real European security initiative

By
Mark Leonard

February 2018

This is the hour of Europe – a unique opportunity to unite a divided continent by showing that unity is the first line of defense in a dangerous world. But thus far there is a continent-sized gulf between the European government’s rhetoric on global disorder and the unambitious, technocratic initiatives it has launched. There is …

How the new grand coalition, once formed, will pursue Germany’s European and foreign policy

By
Rolf Mützenich and Achim Post

February 2018

In recent years, certainties within international politics have become fewer for Germany. European integration appears more fragile due to growing social disparities within the EU; Brexit and nationalist trends across most of Europe are also playing a role. At the same time, international policy regimes and fundamental principles such as international law, multilateralism and the …

Six developments that could lead to structural changes to the global nuclear order

By
Michael Rühle

February 2018

We are still living in the second nuclear age. Unlike the first nuclear age, which was shaped by the bipolar nuclear standoff between the United States and the Soviet Union, the second is far more complex. The spread of nuclear weapons has made deterrence a multiplayer game; Asia has emerged as the region with the …

What are the greatest geopolitical challenges on the global energy market? Our ONS Summit, co-hosted w/ @ONS_Stavanger, to answer this & other questions. More info #MSCenergy #ONS2018: https://t.co/6Y0oIAr6zZ

"Voting 'yes' will be a vote for the future." – Ahead of the Macedonian referendum on September 30, MSC Chairman @ischinger, @carlbildt, @javiersolana & other members of @TheOhridGroup publish op-ed. Via @AtlanticCouncil: https://t.co/7nYOx7BKiJ

As a former EU negotiator on the Kosovo- Serbia relationship, I happen to share the view that opening of the pandora box of territorial changes should be avoided @MunSecConf @carlbildt @BK_Amt @HeikoMaas @AuswaertigesAmt @javiersolana @FedericaMog

Summer reads from the MSC staff: In "The Future of War: A History", @LawDavF describes past strategists' failed attempts at predicting future warfare and asks: Why should today's predictions be any different?