If this is your first visit, be sure to
check out the FAQ by clicking the
link above. You may have to register
before you can post: click the register link above to proceed. To start viewing messages,
select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below.

Re: Dexter Fowler

Originally Posted by mdccclxix

A future lineup with Fowler would be crazy:

Billy H .350 obp
Fowler .375 obp
Votto .400 obp

Bruce would have 120 RBI that year.

I had this crazy off the wall thought the other night that the Reds pulled the wool over everyone's eyes, signed Josh Hamilton for LF and bat cleanup, traded for Fowler to leadoff and play CF, traded Cozart, Leake, Mez, and others to acquire Fowler and James Shields. Shields was added to the rotation to go with Cueto, Latos, Bailey, Arroyo........Chapman sent back to Closer.....Broxton, Marshall, Hoover, Lecure, Arredondo, and someone else as bullpen/setup guys............and the big twist was Gregorius starting the season at SS, and BILLY HAMILTON TAKING OVER AT SS when he was major league ready. Reds fool everyone by making them think Billy is going to play CF and leadoff and fool everyone by making them think Chapman is going into the rotation.

Re: Dexter Fowler

Jon Morosi of Fox Sports is speculating that the Rockies like Homer, the Reds like Fowler, and maybe a match could be made there. All speculation, but interesting point.

In the vein of old-fashioned baseball trades … How about Dexter Fowler for Homer Bailey?

We know this much, from major-league sources: The Colorado Rockies like Bailey, the right-hander who looked like a legitimate No. 2 starter for long stretches of this year. The Cincinnati Reds like Fowler, the antidote to their worst-in-the-majors .581 OPS from the leadoff spot. Now the question is whether the mutual interest crystallizes into trade discussions during this week’s winter meetings in Nashville, Tenn.

On a very basic level, the fit is there: The Rockies are desperate to improve their pitching staff and have had trouble luring free-agent starters to Coors Field. After a season in which many of their homegrown starters struggled as the team posted the worst ERA in the majors, the Rockies may have little choice but to trade from a position of strength. The Reds need at least one more outfielder but have said they are close to their payroll limit – thus rendering them spectators in the Michael Bourn sweepstakes.

And the Reds just happen to have a surplus of starting pitchers, provided Aroldis Chapman succeeds in his transition to the rotation.

The talks could be helped along by the fact that Bailey and Fowler earn comparable salaries. According to the MLBTradeRumors.com arbitration calculator, Bailey is projected to earn $5.1 million in 2013, Fowler $4 million. Bailey is on track to become a free agent after the 2014 season, Fowler after 2015.

Both players are coming off career-best seasons. Rival teams have said the asking price is exceedingly high for Fowler, the switch-hitting center fielder who amassed an .863 OPS this year. Bailey inched closer to his considerable potential this year, making 33 starts and surpassing the 200-inning mark for the first time while cutting his ERA to 3.68.

The Reds are considering a number of alternatives for their outfield, including free agents Ryan Ludwick and Cody Ross. One source suggested they may be reluctant to commit to Fowler in center field for the long term knowing that the dynamic prospect Billy Hamilton is on the verge of breaking into the majors. Yet, it is hard to fathom a better fit than Fowler if the Reds want to address their lack of production in center field and at the leadoff spot with a single move.

Re: Dexter Fowler

Originally Posted by M2

Fowler's trade value is only going to drop as he gets closer to free agency. The Rockies are woefully thin on pitching. If they can get an arm they really like (and maybe Corcino or Cingrani aren't), then they'd be passing on six years of a pitcher they desperately need for one year of Dexter Fowler.

The Rox can always bring in hitters to feast at Coor's (best fit for Josh Hamilton says me). Until then Fowler's got the same fundamental problem as Reds hitters from the Lost Decade: the answer to "But can he pitch?" is "No."

If Fowler's slugging percentage climbs into the .500s, which is not out of the question, his trade value will go up even if the team acquiring him only gets him for 1 year. But even if he plateaus this year, he will not have any less trade value prior to this year's trade deadline than he has now. He’ll probably have more.

The Rockies starting pitching is not in a good place but I haven't seen a single trade offer on this thread that would be a better return then the two draft picks that the Rockies will acquire in 2015 if they lose him to free agency after 2014.

Your proposal, M2, is more enticing than some on here. Some are a joke. Drew Stubbs has near-negative trade value. Mike Leake is a huge question mark. If he were going into his second year of arbitration, rather than his first, he'd be a non-tender candidate. As bad as the Rockies starting pitching is, even money says that Jhoulys Chacin and Drew Pomeranz outpitch Leake next year. Christian Friedrich and perhaps even Jorge De La Rosa have a shot at outpitching him as well.

Speaking of De La Rosa, who is coming back from Tommy John, he exercised his $11 million option for 2013. The option for 2014 is a team option. If an organization wanted to be creative - AND WAS WILLING TO SPEND SOME CASH - there may be a way to get Fowler without giving up a lot of players, if the Reds ownership has the cash to do it. It goes like this:

Walt Jocketty: [calls Dan O'Dowd] Hi Dan, this is Walt Jocketty.

Dan O'Dowd: Hi Walt.

Walt: Listen, I know we haven't been able to make a deal on Fowler, but Mr. Castellini just made a capital call to his partners, and they've allowed me to make the following offer: We trade you Mike Leake and Drew Stubbs and a couple worthless prospects you've never heard of, and you trade us Dexter Fowler and Jorge DeLa Rosa.

Dan: That's a crazy deal, Walt. Fowler alone is worth much more than that. De La Rosa is rehabbing well and has his velocity back.

Walt: But Dan, you know that De La Rosa wouldn't get $2 million – let alone eleven - on the open market given his age an injury history. This trade allows you to get $11 million off the books for the upcoming year. Plus, you improve your rotation as we're giving you a solid starter in Leake who is only entering his first year of arbitration and outpitched everyone on your starting staff. Stubbs is a great athlete and will thrive in Coors Field where he won't see as many breaking balls.
Dan: You're killing me. Jesus loves you, but he is telling me to hang up on you now. [click]

Dick Montfort: Oh yeah, I remember you, aren't you the bald guy that used to make coffee for Bob Gebhardt? You're with the Cardinals now right?
Charlie Montfort: No, Dick, I think he's the Assistant GM of the Reds.

Walt: You're half right. I'm the Reds' President and GM, but anyway, you two got a minute?

Dick: I dunno, Charlie is finishing up his bible study meeting and is going to be late to his AA meeting.

Walt: This won't take long. I'm calling about your GM. Say, I don't mean to go over Dan's head. But, what would you say if I told you that he just turned down an offer from me that would get $11 million off your books for next year and improve your starting pitching in the process, and all it's going to cost you is Fowler and De La Rosa?

Charlie: Who would be coming back to us in the deal?

Walt: Mike Leake, Drew Stubbs, and a couple minor leaguers.
Dick: Leake's the guy who never spent a day in the minors, right?

Walt: Correct. That's him. He's quite an athlete. In fact he hit better last year than your team hit on the road. I’m not exaggerating. Look it up.

Charlie: I know him. We like him. I don't know about Stubbs. He would be at least fourth on our outfield depth chart behind CarGo, Eric Young, and Tyler Colvin.
Walt: Well, I'm sure we could find someone else to throw in if you don't need him. Maybe some minor leaguers. That way you'd save even more money in the deal because Stubbs is actually arbitration eligible.

Dick: We’d need another major leaguer or two to sell this to our fans. Got any fourth or fifth outfielders who are not arbitration eligible?

Walt: Todd Redmond. He's the only guy who started a major league game last year outside of our starting 5. We got him from the Braves organization last year. ERA in the 3s, strikes guys out. Plenty of upside. Under team control until 2019.

Charlie: So that's Leake, Heisey, Redmond, and two minor leaguers for Fowler and De La Rosa?

[If any of you know the Reds' brass and know that this is feasible.... it would only cost the Reds roughly what is coming off the books in Madson's contract... feel free to pass this idea along to them. You're welcome.]

Last edited by cincinnati chili; 12-02-2012 at 07:27 PM.
Reason: bolding spots to make easier to read

". . . acquiring J. Blanton from Oakland for, apparently, Bailey/Cueto, Votto and a lesser prospect. I do it in a second . . . The Reds' equation this year is simple: Make Matt Belisle your #3 starter . . . trade for Blanton, win 85 or more, be in the mix all summer." - Paul Daugherty, Feb. 8, 2008

Re: Dexter Fowler

Sources tell FoxSports.com's Jon Paul Morosi and Ken Rosenthal the Reds like Dexter Fowler and the Rockies like Homer Bailey. Now the question is whether their mutual interest crystallizes into trade discussions during the Winter Meetings.
Read more at http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/cincin...P6FF2PATQWq.99

Re: Dexter Fowler

It's a very good fit both ways. Because I think the extra year of control with Fowler makes up for the difference in value between a starter the caliber of Bailey and an emerging CF. Or the Reds may have to add a small sweetener.

I'm skeptical of the Reds sacrificing Bailey for a CF, given Hamilton's looming presence. The team is still going to need some middle of the order upgrade.

Last edited by lollipopcurve; 12-02-2012 at 08:13 PM.

"Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

Re: Dexter Fowler

Originally Posted by mattfeet

Sources tell FoxSports.com's Jon Paul Morosi and Ken Rosenthal the Reds like Dexter Fowler and the Rockies like Homer Bailey. Now the question is whether their mutual interest crystallizes into trade discussions during the Winter Meetings.
Read more at http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/cincin...P6FF2PATQWq.99

M2 suggested this exact trade on another forum at some point prior to early May 2012... and I seconded it. During this year's playoffs, I felt sort of relieved it didn't happen because I started thinking I had been wrong about Homer all these years.

This one does make sense from the Reds' side, although it would sting. If there are good options that cost less, we should explore them. It may make less sense to the Rockies, unless they can sign him long term, as they'd be taking on a guy who is closer to free agency than a guy like Leake. Plus he won't be cheap.

". . . acquiring J. Blanton from Oakland for, apparently, Bailey/Cueto, Votto and a lesser prospect. I do it in a second . . . The Reds' equation this year is simple: Make Matt Belisle your #3 starter . . . trade for Blanton, win 85 or more, be in the mix all summer." - Paul Daugherty, Feb. 8, 2008

Re: Dexter Fowler

It may make less sense to the Rockies, unless they can sign him long term, as they'd be taking on a guy who is closer to free agency than a guy like Leake.

This is true. My guess is that if the Reds know Bailey will sign if someone shows him the money, they will tell that to a team who's seriously thinking of acquiring him (and extending him).

Ultimately, the Reds have to decide between Latos and Bailey on an extension. I don't think they can get them both done (and have money left for a possible extension for Chapman). My guess is that the choice will be Latos.

"Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

Re: Dexter Fowler

The article that mattfeet posted points out a flawed assumption on my part. Because Fowler has played in parts of five seasons - AND has had more than 500 plate appearances in all of the last four seasons - I assumed he had at least four years of major league service and would be eligible for free agency in 2015.

Uh uh.

He's not eligible for free agency until 2016, as he has less than four years of major league service. This makes a straight-up deal for Homer much more palatable to the Reds and much less palatable to the Rockies. Homer can walk after 2014, and most Coors Field pitchers elect to do so unless the Rox overpay to keep them.

Last edited by cincinnati chili; 12-02-2012 at 09:04 PM.
Reason: I said ABs instead of plate appearances

". . . acquiring J. Blanton from Oakland for, apparently, Bailey/Cueto, Votto and a lesser prospect. I do it in a second . . . The Reds' equation this year is simple: Make Matt Belisle your #3 starter . . . trade for Blanton, win 85 or more, be in the mix all summer." - Paul Daugherty, Feb. 8, 2008

Re: Dexter Fowler

I guess Fowler would be OK. As I've expressed, I am fine giving up Bailey in a trade. The only thing, is that until last season, his numbers weren't really that good. He hit around .260 for most of his career until he hit .300 last year. If we're going to trade for a longterm player, it needs to be a left fielder and not in center because that'll just send the wrong message to Hamilton with his transition to the outfield. I just think it is a wasted opportunity if you go out and trade for Fowler when you have Hamilton who will be up in September.

Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please.

Thank you, and most
importantly, enjoy yourselves!

RedsZone.com is a privately owned website and is not affiliated with the Cincinnati Reds or Major League Baseball