Novak Djokovic Now Leads Andy Murray By Over 8,000 Ranking Points! Dominic Thiem Into Top 10

by Tom Gainey | June 7th, 2016, 10:02 am

58 Comments

After his first French Open title gave him the Career Slam and the Nole Slam, Novak Djokovic now has a lead over 8,000 ranking points over No. 2 Andy Murray (8.035 points). That means Andy Murray could add (if possible) four more Grand Slam titles (2,000 each) and still trail Djokovic!

22-year-old Dominic Thiem made his ATP Top 10 debut at No. 7 after his French Open semifinal run. “It’s very nice. It’s a big milestone, I think, for every tennis player to break into the top 10,” Thiem said on Friday.

58 Comments for Novak Djokovic Now Leads Andy Murray By Over 8,000 Ranking Points! Dominic Thiem Into Top 10

Daniel Says:

Alao Big 4 back at top 4 positions, don’t remember last time this happened.

Seems we are in a loop but the difference now that Djoko holds everything that matters. Entering his ATP rankings breakdownpage is insane to see all those big W and 4 Slams plus WTF. Unprecedent and something not soon to be seen again, unless pfcurse he wins next 2. 😉

Roger has a lot of ground to make up if he’s going to be in the top 8 by the end of the year. Even if he won Wimbledon (unlikely) he’d only move up to #12, and that’s if the guys ahead of him didn’t gain any points (also unlikely).

@RZ Federer 2,000 Wimbledon points would put Federer at no less than 3,140 points in the race, possibly as high as #3. It usually takes around 4,000 points to qualify for WTF and with the rule favoring the Major winners he would essentially be in.

TV – As you know, this tear Djokovic as been on has been going on for almost two years, as Novak and Becker really started clicking. Besides 2015, and the beginning of 2016, the tail end of 2014 was brilliant.

Yes, the media ought to be taking a look at Thiem. The coverage would be crazy if Thiem was good looking and had tits and marched into Top 10 on the WTA side.

BTW, Troicki made it back into Top 20.

People can talk hypotheticals of someone like Federer catching Novak, but realistically, only Andy seems to have a very, very outside shot of doing so.
Not only do his chances mount of having to get through both Andy and Novak based on his low ranking, he is more likely to face Rafa, Berdych, etc in earlier rounds. He will have a struggle to get back to the WTF in London.

I find it funny that people are writing off Federer not making it into the top 8. He didn’t fall of a cliff from last year. Yes he has missed time with injuries. But honestly, for him to pull of less than 3000 points more for the rest of the season, will be so easy for him. 1000 in Cincinnati. 720 at Wimbledon. Another 720 at U.S. Open. And this isn’t even going into the 750 points he could earn in the next couple weeks. He has so much time to do this still. I will eat my words if I am wrong. But I would be completely shocked if Federer didn’t pick up the 4000 points needed or so to get into the top 8. He needs 2840 ranking points more to get to 4000. I’m not huge on Federer, but I will never write him off of making it to the WTF’s. That’s wishful thinking if you don’t think he is going to make it. Again, I will gladly eat my words if I am wrong and humbly admit I was way off. It would be nice to have fresh faces in the WTF’s instead. And I would be fine with Federer not being there. But he will more than likely, barring another setback, be there with room to spare.

From what I have seen Roger’s “injuries” are deeper than he wants us to know, the way he lost to Tsonga and Thiem are telling. I am one of those who believes there so more chances he will not make cut for WTF than he will make it.

Fed, if healthy for the remainder of the season, has almost zero chance of not making the WTF. He has only played 12 matches this year and is still 15th in the race. If he plays the rest of the tournaments that he has scheduled for the season he will be there. Chances that he will be top 2 at end of the year are pretty much zero. But rank 3 – 5 is almost a gaurantee. Not because he is still that good, but because there is absoulutely no one else who is good enough to make it there. Theim, maybe. Kei may catch fire. If he continues to struggle with injury, then obviously it will be tough.

I’m not buying the Tsonga match. He was very close to beating Tsonga in that match. And it was his first tournament back after a long time off. Tsonga has beaten Federer on Federer’s perferred hard courts. Tsonga has done very well on clay. 5 match points against Nole at the French Open. He gets one of them, he is in the final. You might be right about him hiding how bad his injuries really are though. But that Tsonga match could have gone either way in Monte Carlo.

As was posted above, 4000 points always gets you a top 8 year end ranking. Fed has to really really tank or not play much of the rest of the year to not get there.

As for Djokovic, the stats are insane – simultaneously holding all 4 slams, WTF, 5 masters, and finals in 3 other masters. That itself is 15,700 points. If he can win the olympics, it would just be even more insane.

Great performance by Djokovic, no doubt. But still, the fact that, unlike ALL other top players before him – he has the UNIQUE privilege of NOT having to face a young slam winner, someone who is a slam winner but 5-6 years younger so has more energy and speed. He is beating up on mental midgets or old fogies. The way Thiem broke apart, mentally, with unforced errors, was just pathetic. The way Murray broke apart was even more pathetic. Berdych? 24-2, that itself defines Berdych.

Remember, this is the same Djokovic who could not have a winning H2H against Federer until Fed turned 34!! And Remember, he is 6 years younger.

My point was that Tsonga hasn’t played anything special in that match and yet he won. Roger just looke old and tired, without fire in his game shots and that has nothing to with injury.
I am glad his fans are so confident he will make top8 like there is no other players around that can stop him in making top8, they know him better than me, but I am pretty confident he won’t make it, let’s wait and see, first thing first…Taylor Fritz.

@Dave – now that I have my math right and can distinguish between 200 and 2000 points, I can see Fed getting into the top 8, especially if he has a good grass court season. But there’s a good chance that he won’t end up in the top 5. (Semi-bold prediction: Thiem ends up in the top 5 by the end of the year!)

Looking at how Federer has done at Wimbledon and the U.S. Open in 2014 and 2015( U.S. Open, Semi-Finals, Finals. Wimbledon Finals, Finals) I don’t see why he won’t make it to the Semi-finals in both, maybe even finals if he is on Murray’s half of the draw. I actually think he has a better chance at the U.S. Open this year, because Murray hasn’t done much the last 3 years he has played there. Federer looked amazing at the U.S. Open last year. Federer also owns Cincinnati. I just don’t see this being an issue for Federer. I would be totally fine with Federer not making it. But that’s wishful thinking to me. He is way to talented not to make it this year. He will do whatever he has to do to make it. I’m not so sure about him being out of the top 3 though. If Nadal didn’t get injured, I would say that he would be out of the top 3 by the end of the year. But that’s not the case. The Nadal injury changes everything. Who is going to have the consistency to stop Federer from staying out of the top 3? Thiem is one of my favorite players, but is still young and needs more time. Nishikori could get injured at any time. Wawrinka is to inconsistent. If Federer stays injury Free, he finishes top 4 at the worst. Top 3 if Nadal’s injury ends up taking a long time to recover from.

James, Roger built an early lead on Djokovic until he came into full form at 23 (same as Roger’s age). Then in what Roger himself and his fans call his long prime, late 20s, early 30s, the 2011 and onwards H2H became about as dominant as Rafa’s career H2H.
18-8 in Novak’s favor.

Rafa’s H2H was over Fed faster, because he owned Roger on clay from the start and missed a lot of the hardcourt events throughout his career on injuries, that might have favored Roger, prior to 2010.

Andy once led Roger 11-9 as recent as 2013, but to his great credit, Roger has reeled off 5 straight since then to take the lead in that rivalry 14-9.

I forgot to add that if things start to look like Federer might not make it, he will do exactly what Andy had to do in 2014 after his back surgery. He will play in extra 250 events and other events to make sure he gets in. Roger isn’t missing the WTF’s this year unless like you say, his injuries are really as that bad and will last the whole year. Even when Federer had back problems in 2013 and the smaller racquet, he still ended up qualifying.

Agree 100% woth you. From this moment on I believe Fed has a bogger shot of finishing tis year ahead of Nadal than the contrary.

Nadal is sodeined with an injury and who knows when he will ve oking back, maybe for Olymoics and even so he enters his worst part of the season where he doesn’t win a title since USO 2013.

Federer if remains injury free for the rest of the year is a lock to gain points. We can assess beter this next two weeks, if he wins one of the grass titles. If he wins both than will be just a matter of time. His almost sure to go to quarters or beyind on basically every tourney he plays: Stutgart, Halle, Wimby, Canada, Olympics, Cincy, USO, Shangai, Basel, Paris, WTF. Even of he has a first round losa shocker in one or two of tgis run he will reach finals in multiples of thsi tourneys, maybe not the most important one but ebough for him to collect points.

Plus the others are not doing so well either and the gap between Nadal (currently 3) to Federer (15) is 1800 pts.

With tirle in Stutgart, Halle and semis in Wimbledon, he gains 1470 pts which will basiclally puts him into top 8-10 even with the other ranking some points.

As Murray will most likelly win Queens he will prevent another player to grabbing those points. And either Djoko or Murray will win Wimbeldon so another contender won’t add much.

Based on history and assuming he recovered for his injuries plus he should be fresh playong few matches this season and think the odds of him making top 8 are bigger than not making. As long as he plays, there is 9 tourneys to win 3000 pts and only one of this are 250; 2 500; 4 Masters and 2 Slams.

F fs are getting a taste of their own medicine.
I can’t say I feel bad for the former GOAT.
I mean, he bulldozed Roddick & Hewitt.
It’s not they and the number 3 ljubicic were Slam stalwarts.
Roddick lost to Spadea, the man who held the record for most consecutive matches lost (22).
Roddick was a proven fluke because he giggled his way to losses against Nalbandian and fed.
Nothing serious about Roddick, except his great paychecks.

Blake and Roddick lost ginepri, crashed out 2nd and 3rd rounds of U.S. open, indoor hardcourt & grass.

The only one who made F sweat in 2003-2005 was Agassi, who had cortisone injected in his painful body.
If F was so slow at the 14 year end championship
and this clay seaso, he would’ve been retired from tennis.

Alao, we just finished clay season where last tear and this one Fed didn’t do anthting special. His last tow decent resulta were finals in MC 2014 and Rome 2015 and a small 250 title in Instanbul. Now his season really begins.

Don’t you people realize that basically only three spots in top 8 are left to fight for? First five are lock in, bar injury, for the WTF if you ask me. We have quite a few players like Raonic, Wawrinka, Kyrgios (most top 10 wins this season after Nole), Monfils, Goffin, Berdych, Tsonga, Gasquet fighting for one of those three spots..and they all love grass, HC and indoor.
You are all talking like Federer is getting younger and better, but the truth is quite oposite, he is getting older and more vulnerable and it will get worse, he is 35 years old.? He was easily beaten by Raonic, Nole, Tsonga and Thiem and the players will continue to do so, injury or no injury, the odds of him making final 8 are less than not making it. It is not enough just to bet on his name, those days are gone.

^^^ and I would say same if Nole is in Roger’s position, before you accuse me of saying this because I dislike Roger, which I do but that has nothing to do with my opinion, which is based on reality and some of you need reality check and stop living in the past.

Exactly BBB, the second part of the season is HC, jam packed and hectic, not so friendly towards older player with a bad back. People can see the furure if they can learn from the past, not so long ago he struggled to make top 8 due to his bad back, excatly three year ago in 2013 and not missing third of the season like he missed this year.

If Roger does what Andy did and decides to play 250/500 tournaments to qualify for the WTF – come what may – he will end up with much the same results as Andy did…i.e. exhausted. Given his 6 years seniority, he could seriously hurt himself.

The “name” and past thing was what make you and several others say Nadal was the favorite for RG 2016.

You are jumping conclusiona on his first part of the season whereas last several years showed tgat hos resulta second half are twice or more better than his first half. And this yearhe skipped tourneys had some injury misfortune but even so his game on grass and fast HC’s still is better than most.

Ferrer, Cuevas, Kyrgios, Monfils, Goffin, Monfils, Baptista Agut, Berdych all players who arr just 300 pts top on Roger and do you really honeslty think ant of them will finish on top of Roger?!?!

Nadal may have the ret of his season over and suddenly he is out. anybody ciuld get injured anytime inlcuded the ones listed. Tosnha, Key all injure prone.

The only certainty we have is that Djoko, Murray and Thiem (who is on the rise) will make the cut. Kei probably. But the rest, Federer can take 1000 pts on them easily. Nome of this players above is consistent enought week in week out, not even Wawa and Raonic.

Will see, I still fancy Roger’s easily. Only after USO maybe dependong on hos results I’ll start to worry.

2016 Federer is way better than 2013 Federer. Mostly because of the bigger racquet. It’s not even close. Just to put things in perspective for you. In the last 3 majors before the French Open this year, If Djokovic isn’t there to stop Federer in all 3 of them, we would be talking about Federer winning 3 majors in a row and having 20 career majors right now. You honestly think that kind of form just withers down to nothing in a matter of a few months? I agree with you most of the time Wog Boy. But your reality and my reality on this topic are totally different. One of us will be wrong about this, we will have to wait and see. At this point, I am quite confident in my opinion on the matter. I will eat some humble pie if I am wrong. But you haven’t convinced me one bit that Federer isn’t going to make the WTF’s. Trust me, I want you to be right. I really do. But the reality is, Federer has NEVER missed the WTF’s since he has been Federer. NEVER. He will have to be seriously injured not to make it this year. That is the only way he doesn’t make it. He is to good of a player not to make it. If you are saying that he will be seriously injured for the majority of the season this year, than you and I agree on this topic. But if you are saying that even if Federer is fairly healthy and still won’t make it, we couldn’t be further away from each other on this topic.

I wasn’t debating what kind of condition he would be in. I was debating whether he would make the WTF’s or not. You are quite right. HE would probably be exhausted if he had to play those extra tournaments. Although he did play some extra tournaments in 2013 and still managed to make it to the Semi-finals, losing to Rafa, who isn’t a good match up for him at the best of times.

Let me start with Daniel, you are way off the mark comparing “name” of Rafa prior FO and “name” Roger for the rest of the year prognosis, and you just proved my point that you are blinded by the “name”.
Rafa was playing good tennis and peaking at the right time, playing tight IW match, losing by a whisker in Rome, winning MC and Barcelona, injury free (prior FO), is not 35 years old and nine time champion, how on earth can you compare today’s Roger with that is beyond me. For the rest of your post, read my previous posts. Rnd of discussion on this topic, sorry.

Dave,

You are surprising me by telling that Roger in 2016 is way better than Roger in 2013! If you said 2015 I would understand you, but form wise and point wise he is behind 2013, he had two injuries already compare to one in 2013 and missed one third of the year, so how you can say he is in better position is just that I disagree.

I’m not talking about injuries. I’m talking about the racquet change. Do you remember how many shanks he was making in 2013? With the bigger racquet he has made less shanks and has easier power than before. He has barely played so far WogBoy. That’s literally the only reason he is behind in points. No other reason. Tommy Robredo in the 4th round of the U.S. Open in 2013 beat Roger Federer in straight sets. I’m just as surprised that you don’t think that Roger is going to make it this year. And if you get so focused on the number 35, it will start to fog your vision. Until I actually see a physical or mental drop off in his form, and not because of injury, than we will start talking about age. Until then, nothing will surprise me from Federer.

Dave, but where did you see his good form this year that can match last year one, Brisbane? AO? MC? Rome?
No, he didn’t show good form even prior injuries (Brisbane and AO), Raonic didn’t give him one single brak point in Brisbane, Nole demolished him, Average Tsonga beat him in a very dull match and finaly Thiem. You can’t base your prediction on big racquet and last year form, and at the age of 35 he has to play himself into form now?!

I just looked at 2013, because you got me curious about it. 2013 was the year Federer lost in the second round at Wimbledon. He only got to the QF’s in a tournament he owns in Cincinati. 4th round of the U.S. Open. He went one and done to Daniel Brands in a 250 event in Switzerland. He went 45-17 for the year. Which is still a slightly lower winning percentage than 11-4. And he is about to get into his favorite part of the year. Do you honestly see Federer losing in the second round of Wimbledon this year? It would be great, but do you honestly see that happening?

We are talking about Federer making the WTF’s. I think Goffin is in 8th place. How did Goffin do against Federer at the Australian Open? Federer absolutely destroyed Goffin. I’m saying his game hasn’t dipped that badly to miss the WTF’s.

Also, I never compared 2016 form to 2015 form. I was comparing it to 2013. 2015 form was very good. He got to the Finals in London to finish the year off. Barely a month later in Australia, age didn’t set in. If Nole wasn’t in that tournament, it wouldn’t have suprised me if Federer got to the final and handled Murray, who hasn’t won a match or a set off Federer in who knows how long. And Murray’s head wasn’t even there with the baby coming. That’s how close Federer was to winning another major. And if Nole were to get upset this year or next year, don’t think for a second Federer wouldn’t be licking his chops to win that major. Nole is the only one stopping Federer at the majors.

Goffin lost that match in the locker room, getting ready to play his idol. I just feel sorry Thiem lost to Goffin prior that match.
I really have nothing more to say, all I wanted I already said, we’ll talk about this at the end of the year, probably earlier than that..

That would be great if you are right about Federer and he won’t be able to come close to winning slams anymore. And he won’t be able to qualify for the WTF’s this year or in the years to come. I would say to you: great call on seeing the huge drop off in Federer that I never saw. I would have to admit that you have insight in tennis far superior to my own if that is the case. I always do respect your opinion WogBoy. I really do. I just can’t see the drop off coming so quickly yet.

No, I am not certain about anything, just my opinion and Roger can prove me very wrong as soon as the end of grass season.

No, I haven’t started the book, it is on my night table, I am very busy May/June, couldn’t even watch FO final, stayed in some sh$ty hotel without foxtel, I am again away, but this time around I wanted to take a book with me and read in the hotel, but by the time I was well on my way I realized I left the book behind, it has to wait until I sm back.

BTW, I wish I coud watch Federer/Fritz match after what you said about young American, I checked stats of his first round match and he blasted around 20 aces, have never seen him playing, he is only eighteen, Roger is on collision course with Thiem in SF. Thirm is playing far to many tournaments, I think his team aim is to establish him firmly as top 10 player and then to chose and pick tournaments, something similar Nole did when he was fighting his way into top 5/10.

I just finished watching the Federer vs Fritz match. Fritz could have easily won the match. He went 1 for 9 on break points. He was up 40-15 on his serve and it was 4-4 in the final set and Fritz made lots of errors and got broken. Than of course Federer held serve for the victory. Fritz is going to be really good. I agree about Thiem. He needs to chill out with the schedule for sure. To many tournaments. I actually don’t know how he is on grass. I’m guessing he probably isn’t that good on grass. I don’t remember him ever having success on grass so far.

Even so, Nadal was playing good on clay (people have to start separating it, Nadal on clay is completely different fromthe other Nadal and that one is not as impressive as in past), IW he was 1 point away from losing to Sverev.

Federer played bad on clay 2 events returning from injury and still got decent wins on MC, but what he played, Brisbame and AO he was in good form.

You have to see the big picture considering the season. Now is the part of the season where Federer shine. And he will play himaef into form firat with Stutgart, even if he doesn’t win. Also he will be top 4 seed at least until USO, which probably will be the tine his race ranking points will be close to ATP.

And at this point between Federer (just retunring to grass and rested evenwith not math ready) and Nadal, soon to annoince out of Wimbledon on who knows whenhe will be back, plus playing on HC (which he hasn’t won a title sonce Doha 2014), consider Federer’s prognostics way better.

If both Federer and Thiem wins next roubd they will meet semis, that should give us a good indication where Roger’s game is at.

The other side I hope DelPo comes out on top. Is a winnable draw for him with Koljs and Cilic, both play good on grass as well. But DelPo neess it more. He needa a title as soon as possible. Cheer for him here, Fed can get Halle next week.

As much as I am not big on Federer, I honestly can’t see how he won’t pass Conners. He will do whatever it takes to get the all-time wins record. I have always felt this way and will continue to feels this way, until proven otherwise.

There is still so much tennis to be played this year. Roger can still get many wins before the season is over. If he got even close to the same results as last year, he would be at almost 40 wins after the U.S. Open is over. After that, he would play Shanghai, Paris, Basil, WTF’s. He might not get 60 wins, but it wouldn’t completely kill his chances either. I still think he makes it past Connors. He could easily play into 2019 to do it. I see him changing his schedule around next year as well. He will schedule even more to his strengths next year as well.