Real Time e-mini S&P Trading, plus contrarian commentary on all the markets, all the time

Friday, May 06, 2016

Guesstimates on May 6, 2016

June S&P E-mini Futures: The 2026-31 zone should be support and
from there a rally of at least 21-23 points is likely to develop. A bigger
rally than that would probably mean that the ES is headed back above the 2105
high. In any case I expect the ES to move above its 2015 top of 2134 during the
coming months.

QQQ: The 112 level is resistance
but the Q’s are headed eventually to 120. Support now is at 104.

TNX (ten year note yield): We probably have seen the low 10 year
yield for the year. I think that the 10 year yield will reach 3.00% during the
next 12 months.

Euro-US Dollar: Instead of heading lower as I expected
the Euro is rallying toward last year’s top at 1.17. If it starts spending time
above that top a new bull market in the Euro will be underway. Until then I
still think that the ECB’s QE policy will ultimately drop the Euro below par.

Dollar-Yen: A bear market is underway. The dollar-yen reached its first downside
target at 108 and then rallied into the 111-113 resistance zone, stopping at
111.82. The current leg down should carry to 104.

June Crude: The market has spent a couple of days
above resistance at 45 and this is tempting me to move to the bull market camp.
But I will resist this temptation until crude futures hit 47.

June Gold: A
new bull market has begun in gold. The next upside target is 1315. Support is
1205.

July Silver: I think the bear market in silver is over. Resistance
now is at 18.00.

Google: Support is 675.

Apple:I
still think the bull market in APPL is intact. A return to 134 is in the cards.

Facebook: Resistance at 120 has been reached but FB has also staged an
upside breakout from a trading range so I think continuation up to 125-127 is
likely.

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About Me

I write three financial blogs. The first is Carl Futia.On this blog I post daily "guestimates" of the current trends and trend potential in important markets. Once a week I post an explanation of my views on one of these markets with illustrative charts.
My second blog, Carl Futia Real Time, is subscription based. It is a real time trading seminar in which members receive my real time analysis of the E-mini S&P futures and can watch me trade them. In this seminar I explain how I calculate support and resistance levels and how I recognize market "rejections" of support or resistance which then determine the current trend directions.
My third blog is called The Art of Contrarian Trading and is based on my book of the same title. On that blog I focus less on day-to-day market details and more on swings in investor sentiment, the "information cascades" which I talk about in my book.