Mike78

@Mike78

Posts made by Mike78

@Mike78 but you seem to forget that with more and more users more and more money is on the market. This new liquidity injection leads to higher player prices. So there are two things that leads to higher player prices:

Media and Performence Buzz (= Higher dividends) and

More and more users on FI.
= both things will happen, i m sure (= my opinion)....

From a financial ecenomic perspective, this doesn't really make sense. If traders act and trade rationally then the amount of advertising SHOULD be irrelevent to a players price.

For a very high risk investment like FI, you should be looking for a 15% ROI minimum to be worth buying.

Lets say a player is expected to return about 50p a year and is relatively young (around 25) then a reasonable price for the player is £3.33. Any less than that and the player is under-priced and everyone should invest until they reach £3.33 and any more than that then they are over-priced. The amount of new users doesn't change that. If the player is £3.50 then they are not worth the price and people shouldn't buy.

20 million new users can join but the player is still over-priced at £3.50 and people shouldn't buy the player based on expected financial returns. You can advertise something all you like but it doesn't make something that was worth £3.33 worth £3.50.

In reality of course if 20 million new users join then ultimately they will want to buy the player because in part FI is as much a game as it is a way to make money (like betting). The player will therefore rise in value but will be artificially over-priced. What you will then see is people seeing the player rise and buy because they think the player will keep rising so the player becomes more and more over-priced creating the bubble. Of course once the player stops rising there is no reason to hold the player - they aren't going to make capital gains and the price doesn't justify the dividends so logically the player should crash back down to £3.33.

Of course - if the devs double the dividends again then suddenly the real value of every player doubles. You could argue the £3.33 player is worth more than that on the basis that maybe the devs will increase dividends in the future.

Its interesting to watch to see what happens when you combine a financial market with a game. The index seems to be torn between trying to follow economic principles and between following what happens when people throw money at a game.

Why not just promote another 100 players into the existing 200 at set prices based on there ability/market value compared to there counterparts that are already in the top 200 and let people trade as normal on these .When someone gets promoted in then cap all investers to 100 shares in that player for a period of a week allowing anyone who maybe interested have a chance to invest.

Agreed, its too big a change.

In my book, the best thing they can do is expand the first team to 300 players and make promotions a bit fairer - either via a tendering process or max 10 futures a trader within 24 hours of promotion.

Over the years, they can expand the index by adding another 100 players to it every couple of years along with adding additional dividends to balance it out.

@NewUser65595 sorry but i have to defend FI and i tell you that you have no clue. So why did FI refund the comission if they want a crash? Why should they? A crash means a lot of lost customers ....... I think the market overreacted, but the correction was good and healthy and times have never been better to buy players as it is now. World Cup is coming, Performence Buzz, Pennystocks, Lots of advertising, ...... So buy deep and sell high.

The problem is that when Penny Stocks come in, every player is less likely to win PBs which means every player is worth less money which means logically every player (not just PB specialists) should drop in value.

Its probably the riskiest time in FI's history to buy a player because we don't know when something that should devalue your portfolio is coming in.

I reckon people will make a lot of money in next few weeks (the first PB winners could be looking at a very nice value rise) but its a very iffy time to be buying players.

@NewUser65595 sorry but i have to defend FI and i tell you that you have no clue. So why did FI refund the comission if they want a crash? Why should they? A crash means a lot of lost customers ....... I think the market overreacted, but the correction was good and healthy and times have never been better to buy players as it is now. World Cup is coming, Performence Buzz, Pennystocks, Lots of advertising, ...... So buy deep and sell high.

The market didn't over-react.

Someone like Sandro was valued at £1.50 because of his potential to win performance buzz due to little competition. If Squad players were allowed to win PB then there would be 250 defenders to compete with many of them playing in Italy. In any given weekend, its likely that one obscure defender will have a good game get a few assists and so on.

At best, the number of PBs that Sandro, Alves, Alaba win is halved - in reality its probably a lot worse than that. I'd go as far as saying that with Squad players eligible then half of the defenders on the index are worth a 30p punt at most.

The problem now is that Penny Stocks are looming in the distance. Some like Alaba is great value at the moment but shockingly over-priced with Penny Stocks and Squad being able to win PB. Investing in a PB player is a pure casino style gamble.

The Devs should come out and say it'll be a minimum of x number of months before they are introduced and then at least we know where we are. The safest thing to do is clear your portfolio before they come in I reckon and then come in to loot immediately after they are announced.

When you buy a future, its not like shares in equity, all you own is the chance to win dividends. So the true value of a future is the predicted dividends they will earn over their career. It doesn't make financial sense to pay more than that and it doesn't make financial sense for anyone else to buy the future off you for more than that.

With the dividends increase, the index has a bit of catching up - after that it should flatline.

That assumes that everyone trades rationally on financial theory - fortunately they don't. Really every player should gradually depreciate (barring a change in their status) to reflect their reduced future dividend yield. What seems to happen instead is that players are holding their value before crashing and you have to hope you aren't holding the future when it nosedives.

I've sold Linderlof - not convinced now he is going to be the buzz magnet, people were expecting. If he scores he may well win the media buzz otherwise probably not and doesn't seem likely PB player. Danger he may be dropped as well.

Taken a punt on Werner. Everything I've read about him is positive .

Also got in Salah and Morata. Salah seems a splashy player who may not make a fortune in dividends but if he starts well will draw investment. Morata seemed good value after his price drop. Portfolio now

They make money from commission on buying and selling so the rule is in there probably because the last thing they want is people holding onto futures for 10+ years.

Its probably not a good idea to hold for 3 years anyway. Its likely that current buzz (media and any proficient PB) players will drop about May as people put money into transfer targets so you would be better off selling Pogba around then and buying back a bit cheaper. Its a self-fulfilling prophecy because next April people will be expecting a price drop in certain players (like this year) so they sell before the drop which ultimately triggers the drop.

Previous links to the Premier League
20 goals in the Bundesliga at age of about 21
German international
Main striker for runners up in Bundesliga
Champs League
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