DENNIS DEITCH: Setting the Phils' deadline odds

The guesswork has been removed for Ruben Amaro Jr. The Phillies have no use for sacrificing anything for the 2013 Phillies. They have been a sacrificial lamb to a second straight dud offseason for the general manager, one where even his good move (acquiring Ben Revere for Vance Worley) was sideswiped by injury.

Amaro might want to do a sideways move where he offers up a veteran at one position for a veteran at another — well, let’s face it, a relief pitcher — but that isn’t how things usually work at the trade deadline. That’s what offseasons are for.

No, any dealing almost certainly will be pure selling for prospects or young big-leaguers not ready to properly help their postseason-bound team in October. With that, let’s set some odds on the Phillies rumored to be available are shipped away in the next 48 hours.

Michael Young: Chance of being traded, 98 percent.

Advertisement

It makes no sense for the Phillies to hang onto the third baseman, and everyone knows it. He has been a slightly above-average offensive third baseman and a far below-average defensive third baseman, regardless of the narrative the organization makes up. There are a few contenders who could use the upgrade at third base, a few more who could benefit from him splitting time between there and designated hitter. All of them would benefit from his example, and it shouldn’t take a great deal in return to land him.

Carlos Ruiz: Chance of being traded, 50 percent.

The hard decline of Chooch — one that coincides with a drug suspension in the most unflattering of ways — almost makes it more likely the Phillies bring him back after his contract ends, because who will want to give the injury-prone 34-year-old more than, say, two years and $4 million this offseason? But if someone wants to offer you anything of worth to have him as an experienced backstop down the stretch, you take it.

Delmon Young: Chance of being traded, 45 percent.

This could happen just for the heck of it at the last moment. He hasn’t been a total disaster, but every time he hits another threshold in his incentive-drenched contract and earns more money, the less worth it he gets. Again, a Class A relief prospect would be enough.

Cliff Lee: Chance of being traded, 30 percent

This percentage only speaks to a deal happening by July 31. There’s a decent shot the Phils will have an opportunity to make something work after the non-waiver deadline, be it because the southpaw gets through, or is claimed by a contender with whom they can negotiate.

The fact that the Phillies have thrown at least $50 million at a Cuban pitcher who should be rotation ready next season has raised the chances of Lee going. So has the fact that the Phillies aren’t making 2014 postseason hopes abound with their completely disheveled bullpen.

Chase Utley: Chance of being traded, 30 percent

This takes into account the coin-flip odds of getting an extension completed by Wednesday. However, if that does not happen, Amaro has no excuse for keeping Utley’s name off the lips of other GMs. An available Utley certainly would get you more than Hunter Pence got the Phils last year — and that trade landed them a good fourth outfielder (Nate Schierholtz, whom Amaro let walk), a very good catching prospect (Tommy Joseph) and a decent pitching prospect (Seth Rosin).

Jonathan Papelbon: Chance of being traded, 8 percent.

The huge contract was the first problem. Then the reduced velocity became another issue. Then the blown saves over the last two months made things worse. Then word that Papelbon is a pretty lousy teammate essentially killed any interest teams had in him. The Tigers were asking around, but decided journeyman Jose Veras was a wiser option. Unless someone gets incredibly desperate, it ain’t happening.

Jimmy Rollins: Chance of being traded, 0 percent.

The veteran shortstop put to bed any thoughts of this by saying he’s sticking around at least for the next calendar year. However, if he’s the Phillies’ all-time hits leader by the trade deadline next year, the 2014 odds will be much, much higher.