Bill Tieleman is one of BC's best known communicators, political commentators and strategists.
Bill writes a politics column Tuesdays in 24 Hours newspaper and The Tyee online magazine.
Bill has been Communications Director in the B.C. Premier's Office and at the BC Federation of Labour.
Bill owns West Star Communications, a consulting firm providing strategy and communication services for labour, business, non-profits and government.

Tuesday, November 27, 2012

BC Liberals hope to pass on the right but still miles behind Adrian Dix and NDP, while BC Conservatives jackrabbit start ends in ditch and Greens' eco-hybrid silently follows in race for May 2013 election finish, new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll shows

"The
consequences of our actions are so complicated, so diverse, that predicting the
future is a very difficult business indeed."

- J. K. Rowling, Harry
Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban

Polling
provides a political roadmap to all parties but there's no guarantee the
streets it shows now will even exist by the May 2013 provincial election.

Nonetheless,
the B.C. Liberals appear to have finally exited the highway to electoral hell
they have been zooming down for months.

The
B.C. New Democrats under leader Adrian Dix are still racing on the political
equivalent of the no-speed-limit Autobahn, but have started glancing in their
rear view mirror to see if Premier Christy Clark has any chance of catching up.

And
the B.C. Conservatives' early jackrabbit start towards opposition party
contender status with new leader John Cummins has ended with their vehicle in
the ditch, while B.C. Greens' leader Jane Sterk's eco-hybrid silently follows.

Those
conclusions are drawn from Angus Reid Public Opinion's latest B.C. poll,
which puts Clark’s B.C. Liberals up three points at 29 per cent, the B.C. NDP
down two at a still lofty 47 per cent, the B.C. Conservatives fading four to 12
per cent and the Greens up one to nine per cent.

The
poll gives Clark a faint hope clause of winning, but with a disapproval rating
of 60 per cent versus an approval of just 29 per cent and a momentum score of
negative 36 per cent, there's no champagne on ice.

Commitment
issues

Dix
holds a commanding 48 per cent approval rating against 34 per cent disapproval,
a clear lead in every B.C. region and a momentum score of positive seven per
cent, but the poll shows he has reasons to be concerned about fading in the
final stretch.

Angus
Reid pollster Mario Canseco said in an interview with The Tyee that with 21 per
cent of respondents saying they don’t see any of the four party leaders as
making the best premier and another 27 per cent not yet sure, voters are
volatile.

"The
fact that we're six months from a campaign and people who say they don't know
or none of the above totals 48 per cent -- that's problematic," Canseco
says.

But
this and previous polls show the NDP with a significant advantage over the
struggling Liberals, he added.

"The
NDP have premier-in-waiting approval levels for Dix," Canseco said.
"There's a level of commitment for an opposition party that we don't see
anywhere else in the country. That's what makes it compelling and unique."

Canseco
says the NDP must resist the temptation to believe the election is "in the
bag" and say nothing about what it would do in government.

"They
need to provide a vision consistent with what people expect of you but keep the
centrist votes," he said.

A
bad connection fixable?

And
while Canseco warns that the NDP's challenge to maintain its big lead is still
significant, he says the Liberals' situation is daunting.

"The
problem the B.C. Liberals have is one of connection. You can't just say, 'We
don't want to go back to the 1990s,'" Canseco says. "It's not the way
to win the election."

"New
voters, younger voters, those from outside B.C. or Canada don't know about when
the NDP was in power in the 1990s."

But
Canseco also says the Liberals have one big advantage -- incumbency. The
Liberals can actually do things while the NDP can only make promises.

"It's
a matter of engagement -- when you're in government you can do that," he
said.

To
add to the NDP worries, the B.C. Liberals have also narrowed the gap in Metro
Vancouver, the region with 38 of the province's 85 seats, to nine per cent,
with the NDP at 42 per cent the Liberals at 33 per cent, Conservatives at 13
per cent and Greens at 9 per cent plus 3 per cent independent or other.

And
Dix only has a one per cent margin over Clark as the leader best suited to deal
with the economy -- which the poll says B.C. voters believe is the most
important issue facing the province, ranked at 26 per cent versus 17 per cent
for health care, 12 per cent for leadership and 10 per cent for the
environment.

Lastly,
in what could be a funny punch line, the B.C. Liberals hold a solid lead in
just one of the large range of demographic statistics used to analyze public
opinion -- they are clearly the choice of the "rich."

Those
earning over $100,000 a year in household income favour the B.C. Liberals by a
47 per cent to 34 per cent for the NDP.

But
Canseco makes a fascinating point: $100,000 plus households make up about 27-28
per cent of the total sample in the poll -- that's not a small category. And of
course, two professionals making $51,000 each puts them into that demographic.

Gender
gap persists for Clark's Libs

Nonetheless,
the B.C. Liberals are in serious trouble, with a massive 24 per cent gender gap
with women voters.

What's
more, Canseco says, both the NDP and the B.C. Conservatives are equally
stealing the B.C. Liberals' former voters.

While
the NDP is retaining a huge 89 per cent of their 2009 election voters, the
Liberals are only keeping 62 per cent of their supporters, with 16 per cent
going to the NDP and 16 per cent to the Conservatives.

So
Christy Clark's urgent pleas to restore the "free enterprise
coalition" under the B.C. Liberal banner has fallen on deaf ears.

Canseco
says the simple math of adding the B.C. Conservatives' votes to the B.C.
Liberals to re-elect Clark is faulty.

"It's
not at simple as that," Canseco said, making a point that Martyn Brown,
former premier Gordon Campbell's chief of staff, has also written about.

In
fact, adding the Conservatives' entire current 12 per cent to the Liberals 29
per cent equals 41 per cent to the NDP's 47 per cent. And John Cummins doesn’t
plan to close their doors and give up.

Still,
the big question facing the B.C. Conservatives isn't a merger with the B.C.
Liberals they have already rejected but whether they have bottomed out after a
brutal two months of defections, insurrection and bad press.

"You
can't even pretend to be the official opposition with all of this
happening," Canseco says, referring to the damage done by ex-Liberal cabinet
minister John van Dongen's loud departure
after a few months as the only B.C. Conservative MLA, followed by other party
members quitting the party, some to join the B.C. Liberals.

But
Canseco says even a battered B.C. Conservative Party drawing eight per cent of
the vote in several northern and interior ridings could mean NDP victories over
incumbent B.C. Liberals in close races.

And
John Cummins continues to tour the province, going to ridings like Peace River
South, where despite its troubles the party has a strongly contested nomination
battle this week between two notable candidates.

So while
the poll gives measures of both hope and fear to all parties, it's what they do
with that road map to correct their course that really matters on May 14, 2013.

So I have been listening to QM's Christmas music today and I am surprised that the Conservative Party of Canada is telling us just how awful the New Democrats are with their Carbon tax. Ads I believe are paid for by Canadian taxpayers.However I thought that Mr. Harper is the leader, not Mulcair, so why would it matter what Mulcair proposes? After all, Canada is in debt federally to the tune of $600,000,000.00. Something the Cons conveniently ignore in power, but slam when in opposition. A party that prides itself in fiscal responsibility. A party that believes we need more MP's and dirty, polluting oil.I was also wondering why the Cons say nothing when the B.C. Liberal party sucks out millions from B.C. taxpayers with, you guessed it...A FREAKING CARBON TAX. A party awash in $60,000,000. in dept and consistently unable to balance its books.Does this stink of hypocracy? You bet it does. Smells as bad as an oil spill in our Pacific Ocean.It's time to remove the fossils in Victoria and Ottawa now.Merry Christmas!

How long will the public keep supporting the most corrupt Liberal party in BC history ? This government has no mandate from the public & it's useless leader is shafting the public in more ways than you can shake a stick at: ?premeir chrusty Clark promised to get our spending under control by cutting the deficit in half. But today, she broken those promises. And now, her words have no credibility. premier Clark simply hasn't shown the kind of leadership we need.her support of the of Temporary Foreign Worker program is increasingly little more than a government-sanctioned way for big business to by-pass Canadian workers and substitute with cheap foreign labour All they have to do is say the employees require "specialized knowledge" was the final straw.it depresses wages for Canadians and creates a cheap pool of easily exploited and disposable labor.So why is there still demand for foreign labor despite so many canadains looking for work? because they work for 1/10 the wages ,no beniftis increasing corperate and shareholder profits, corperation do not care about workers only profits. You can normally tell something's very seriously wrong with your BC premier, when two of his MLA start joking about his political strategy decisions in public.

How long will the public keep supporting the most corrupt Liberal party in BC history ? This government has no mandate from the public & it's useless leader is shafting the public in more ways than you can shake a stick at: ?premeir chrusty Clark promised to get our spending under control by cutting the deficit in half. But today, she broken those promises. And now, her words have no credibility. premier Clark simply hasn't shown the kind of leadership we need.her support of the of Temporary Foreign Worker program is increasingly little more than a government-sanctioned way for big business to by-pass Canadian workers and substitute with cheap foreign labour All they have to do is say the employees require "specialized knowledge" was the final straw.it depresses wages for Canadians and creates a cheap pool of easily exploited and disposable labor.So why is there still demand for foreign labor despite so many Canadians looking for work? because they work for 1/10 the wages ,no benift is increasing corporate and shareholder profits, corporation do not care about workers only profits. You can normally tell something's very seriously wrong with your BC premier, when two of his MLA start joking about his political strategy decisions in public.

Watch for robo-calls from unidentified sources about your voting tendencies, which then go on to make false claims about what the NDP are planning to do. Clearly funded by the Liberal party but unidentified. Phone number and email provided if you have any questions, but both give no reply.

Bill Tieleman and Senator Larry Campbell, former Vancouver mayor

Jim Sinclair, Cindy Oliver, Ken Georgetti and Bill Tieleman

Bill Tieleman's coverage of the Basi-Virk/BC Legislature Raid Case praised by other journalists:

"This outstanding piece of journalism, in The Tyee, is the work of a journalist who has been deeply involved with this issue from the start and this article should be passed on as far and wide as possible."

"Bill Tieleman from 24 hours . . . . If you want to know about this trial and about this case, you have to read his blog – I mean, that’s just all there is to it – it’s required reading if you want to understand the BC Legislature Raid situation."

- Mike Smyth, columnist, The Province

"The Basi-Virk case....you’ve probably sat through more of these hearings and gone through more of the files and written about it than any other journalist in the province."

- Bill Good, host, The Bill Good Show, CKNW/Corus Radio Network

"Tieleman ...has done a first-rate job covering the trial."

- Paul Willcocks, columnist, the Victoria Times-Colonist

"Tieleman, who marries a considerable journalistic talent with one of the smartest political minds in the province, has been writing more web-exclusive material. And his coverage of the Basi-Virk trial is a must-read -- whether you're an insider or an outsider."

"24 Hours, the Vancouver paper that has been leading the coverage, as well as the hints of conspiracy in B.C."

- Norman Spector, columnist, Globe and Mail

"Although the major media in this circumstance has been giving the case significant coverage, Tieleman's reports on his blog have been outstanding.

The entire cut and thrust of legal wrangling and arguments has been covered and is accompanied by considered analysis.....His blog site coverage of the Basi-Virk trial is the most in depth treatment of one of British Columbia's biggest political scandals."

- Bill Bell, columnist, The North Shore News

"Mr. Tieleman has published online dispatches which, freed from the limitations of newsprint space or broadcast time, can run at length. They also remain available for those select readers who become obsessed with a case also known as Railgate.....

In another bizarre twist to a story with no shortage of them, Mr. Tieleman went to work one day in December only to discover his office had been ransacked. Bookcases had been tipped over and papers strewn, but nothing was missing.

To top it off, a press kit for the self-published novel The Raid, written by a retired military officer in Metchosin and featuring on its cover a photograph from the 2003 police raid, had been left in a conspicuous place."

- Tom Hawthorn, columnist, The Globe and Mail

Nobody has followed the Basi-Virk affair over its past five years with greater diligence than local journalist, Bill Tieleman....Tieleman deserves our thanks, a fistful of journalism awards and some merit citation for citizenship.