Tuesday, April 30, 2013

Early returns for this year’s truncated provincial elections
have been reported, and they show that the country’s political divisions
continue. With 71%-96% of the ballots counted in the twelve provinces that cast
them, most of Iraq’s major parties maintained their positions. At the same
time, more small and independent entities have finished well. They will likely
be coopted by the larger ones however. Iraq’s last local elections were held in
2009, and were all about issues and the performance of politicians. 2013’s
balloting was more about getting ready for next year’s parliamentary vote.

Election poster for PM Maliki who failed to win the
overwhelming victory he was hoping for in the 2013 provincial vote (Niqash)

The 2013 local elections did not fulfill Prime Minister
Nouri al-Maliki’s hopes for an overwhelming showing. Prime Minister Nouri
al-Maliki’s State of Law came out in front with eight first place finishes in the twelve provinces that voted. That was a slight loss for the list as it
won in nine of those twelve governorates in 2009, and was a larger coalition
this year than previously. Not only that but Maliki’s own Dawa Party allegedly
fared poorly compared to its allies within the list. Al-Mada for example,
reported that in Babil and Karbala former premier Ibrahim Jaffari’s National
Reform Party and the Fadhila Party respectively fared better than Dawa. Before
the vote, Maliki was talking about winning a majority, which would lead to a
majority government at the national level in 2014. State of Law did well,
but not that well to fulfill the prime minister’s plans. The main reason for the
list’s slight drop off from 2009 was probably the fact that it had been in
power for the last four years, and had largely failed to deliver on its
promises of better services and governance. It therefore suffered a slight
backlash against being the incumbent.

State of Law’s two main competitors in southern Iraq and
Baghdad, the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) and the Sadrists did better
than in 2009. The ISCI’s Citizen’s Alliance had eight 2nd place and
two 3rd place finishes, compared to seven 2nd place
finishes in the last vote. The Sadrists won in Maysan, came in second in
Karbala, along with five 3rd place and three fourth places finishes.
That was better than in 2009, when the best it could do was being the runner-up
in Dhi Qar, plus five 3rd place and one fourth place finishes. They
were the likely beneficiaries of those that were unhappy with State of Law. The
ISCI has been desperately trying to reform its image after the death of its
patriarch Abdul Aziz al-Hakim in 2009, and its poor showing in that year’s
balloting when it lost control of most of the south and Baghdad. Not only that,
but its militia the Badr Organization ran as part of State of Law this year.
That showed that the Supreme Council had an even better showing than many
expected it to have. Likewise, Moqtada al-Sadr has been trying to transform
himself from a militia leader to a politician. He’s mainly been doing that by
criticizing Maliki, while at the same time, being his main supporter. That has
given the Sadrists the most ministries in the government, which open up huge
patronage networks to maintain and expand his following. Like the other
parties, both the ISCI and Sadrists will hope to build upon this showing for
the 2014 parliamentary voting.

Next, were Iraq’s Sunni parties, who were divided into two
main groups. One was Deputy Premier Saleh al-Mutlaq’s Arab Iraqiya. Before the
election, he reconciled with the prime minister, who was looking towards Mutlaq to be his future Sunni partner in a new national government. Maliki might
have to look elsewhere as his deputy did horribly, only being able to finish
first in Diyala as part of a coalition with Speaker of Parliament Osama Nujafi
called Iraqiyat Diyala. In 2009, Mutlaq finished second in Diyala, third in
Salahaddin, and fifth in Baghdad, showing a tremendous drop off. Speaker Nujafi
did much better with a second place finish in Baghdad and Salahaddin, along
with the shared victory in Diyala. In 2009, Nujafi was part of his brother’s
al-Hadbaa party that only ran in Ninewa. This year, he ran his own list that
included al-Hadbaa, Sheikh Ahmed Abu Risha’s Awakening Movement, Rafi Issawi’s
National Future Gathering, the Iraqi Islamic Party, and the Iraqi Turkmen
Front. He basically replaced the Iraqi Accordance Front as being the main Sunni
party in Iraq. Mutlaq on the other hand, has lost much of his constituency.

The last two major parties were Iyad Allawi’s Iraqiya and
the Kurdish Brotherhood and Coexistence list. Allawi did as badly as Mutlaq. In
the last local elections, Iraqiya finished in the top five in seven out of
twelve provinces, which included 2nd place in Salahaddin and 3rd
in Qadisiyah. This year, the best it could do was 3rd in Diyala, 4th
in Salahaddin in four out of five top five finishes. The Kurdish parties
finished third in Diyala in both rounds of balloting. Allawi was the only
politician to run across the country, and emphasized a secular agenda. His lack
of leadership and constant trips out of the country could account for why he
did so badly. The Kurds on the other hand, simply maintained their position as
there was little to change their standing amongst their constituency.

One of the main changes between 2009 and 2013 was the number
of entities running, and how they did. In 2009, 427 individuals and parties ran
compared to 265 in 2013. That showed a large amount of consolidation amongst
Iraq’s political class. At the same time, more independent parties finished in
the top five this year than in 2009. In that year, nine parties finished at the
top compared to twenty in 2013. In 2009, some of the best showings were by
Youssef Majid al-Habboubi who won in Karbala, and the Hope of Rafidain that got
second place in that province. This year, Salahaddin Governor Ahmed Abdullah’s
Alliance of Iraqi People won in that province, while Loyalty to Najaf won
there, and Habboubi came in third in Karbala. These were all examples of
smaller parties stressing local issues. On the other hand, many are going to be
co-opted by the larger ones when new ruling coalitions are put together in each
governorate. That shows at the provincial level there are some parties that are
attempting to address the problems of the districts and cities. However, they
do not have the power yet to govern on their own, and have to fall in line
behind the larger national lists.

Iraq’s 2013 provincial elections simply reflected the
current state of Iraq’s divided politics. Maliki maintained the dominant
position as he runs both the central government, and many of the local
governorates in southern and central Iraq. That gives him plenty of
opportunities to dish out patronage and favors to his followers. At the same
time, there are other parties like the Supreme Council and Sadrists that are
competing for the same group of voters, and they have been able to make slight
advances. Speaker Nujafi and Deputy PM Mutlaq are competing for the Sunni vote,
but only the former still has a large base. The Speaker, along with the Kurdish
parties and Iyad Allawi are the main critics of Prime Minister Maliki, but they
have not been able to make any large gains with the electorate, and Allawi has
actually lost much of his constituency. This all showed that the balloting
simply maintained the current status quo with Maliki relying upon the prime
minister at the top, but his rivals and opponents unable to unseat him. Unless
something drastic happens, this will be how the next parliamentary balloting
takes place, meaning there will be no resolution to Iraq’s current political
deadlock.

SOURCES

Ali, Ahmed, “Iraq’s Provincial
Elections and their National Implications,” Institute for the Study of War,
4/19/13

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About Me

Musings On Iraq was started in 2008 to explain the political, economic, security and cultural situation in Iraq via original articles and interviews. If you wish to contact me personally my email is: motown67@aol.com