How do NHL Replacement Coaches Perform?

How do NHL Replacement Coaches Perform?

Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin may be the best two players of the past decade. However, despite having these two superstars and numerous other stars over the past several years, the Penguins had been held without a Stanley Cup since the 2008-09 season. That changed last year when Mike Sullivan (I washed his golf clubs once, true story) took over for Mike Johnston after a so-so start was deemed not good enough by the big-wigs in Pittsburgh. The Penguins played great down the stretch and ultimately beat the Sharks in the Stanley Cup. Oddly enough, the Penguins team that won back in 2009 was also led by a mid-season replacement coach.

This season, four head coaches have already gotten the heave-ho with Claude Julien being the most recent. What should Bruins fans expect? While the Bruins aren’t exactly as good as the Penguins were last season, they’re also not tanking anytime soon. Right now, it appears that every team except the Panthers are pretty happy with their coaching change. Considering how tight the standings are, all four teams could easily make the playoffs and unlike the NBA, it’s fairly common that you see a low seeded team reach or win the Stanley Cup.

In the table below, you’ll see each coach, their record (counting OT and SO losses as a normal loss since this is gambling focused), and the amount of units you’d have won or lost if you bet on them every game.

Team

Original Coach

Record

Units

Replacement

Record

Units

Boston Bruins

Claude Julien

26-29

-7.9

Bruce Cassidy

2-0

+1.3

St. Louis Blues

Ken Hitchcock

24-26

-5.5

Mike Yeo

5-1

+4.4

New York Islanders

Jack Capuano

17-25

-5.3

Doug Weight

7-4

+3.4

Florida Panthers

Gerard Gallant

11-11

-1.4

Tom Rowe

13-19

-6.5

TOTAL

78-91 (46.1%)

-20.1 (-11.9% ROI)

TOTAL

27-24 (52.9%)

+2.6 (5.1% ROI)

(Records through Saturday, 2/11/17)

Not too shabby, eh? All four of these teams had high hopes for this season and none of them were pleased with the way their season had been going. The Panthers firing of Gerard Gallant seemed a bit premature and it would seem that they are regretting that choice so far. The other three teams have appeared to have gotten a spark with their new coaches (small sample sizes aside).

So, is this how it always works? Does firing a head coach turn a team’s season around, or should you expect them to play essentially the same as they had before the coaching change?

I’ve gone ahead and taken a look at every NHL mid-season coaching change since the 2005-06 season to see how the teams were doing before the original coach was fired and how they did the rest of the season. Excluding the four from this season, 45 teams have axed their coach midway through the season and two teams have had three coaches during the season.

Year, Team

Original Coach

Record

Units

Replacement

Record

Units

2015-16 CBJ

Todd Richards

0-7

-7.0

John Tortorella

34-41

-2.1

2015-16 PIT

Mike Johnston

15-13

-1.0

Mike Sullivan

33-21

+5.3

2015-16 MIN

Mike Yeo

23-32

-12.4

John Torchetti

15-12

0.0

2014-15 OTT

Paul MacLean

11-16

-3.6

Dave Cameron

32-23

+9.8

2014-15 EDM

Dallas Eakins

7-24

-15.8

Todd Nelson

17-34

-4.5

2014-15 NJD

Peter DeBoer

12-24

-11.1

Adam Oates/ Scott Stevens*

20-26

-6.2

2014-15 TOR

Randy Carlyle

21-19

+4.0

Peter Horachek

9-33

-22.8

2013-14 PHI

Peter Laviolette

0-3

-3.0

Craig Berube

42-37

+3.4

2013-14 BUF

Ron Rolston

4-16

-8.0

Ted Nolan

16-45

-21.0

2013-14 FLA

Kevin Dineen

3-13

-8.9

Peter Horachek

26-40

-6.1

2013-14 WIN

Claude Noel

19-28

-7.0

Paul Maurice

18-17

+6.2

2012-13 BUF

Lindy Ruff

6-11

-4.5

Ron Rolston

15-16

+4.8

2012-13 TB

Guy Boucher

13-19

-7.8

Scott Cooper

5-11

-6.5

2011-12 CAR

Paul Maurice

8-17

-7.4

Kirk Muller

25-32

-2.0

2011-12 WAS

Bruce Boudreau

12-10

-1.9

Dale Hunter

30-30

-2.4

2011-12 ANA

Randy Carlyle

7-17

-9.6

Bruce Boudreau

27-31

-4.1

2011-12 LA

Terry Murray

13-16

-5.3

John Stevens/Darryl Sutter**

27-26

-2.5

2011-12 MON

Jacques Martin

13-19

-5.1

Randy Cunneyworth

18-32

-12.1

2011-12 TOR

Ron Wilson

29-35

-5.4

Randy Carlyle

6-12

-4.8

2011-12 CBJ

Scott Arniel

11-30

-15.4

Todd Richards

18-23

+6.1

2011-12 STL

Davis Payne

6-7

-0.2

Ken Hitchcock

43-26

+5.9

2010-11 NJD

John MacLean

9-24

-14.7

Jacques Lemaire

29-20

+7.0

2010-11 NYI

Scott Gordon

4-13

-7.5

Jack Capuano

36-39

-2.3

2009-10 PHI

John Stevens

13-12

-2.2

Peter Laviolette

28-29

-6.1

2009-10 STL

Andy Murray

17-23

-1.8

Davis Payne

23-19

+4.6

2009-10 CBJ

Ken Hitchock

22-36

-13.5

Claude Noel

10-14

-2.5

2008-09 PIT

Michel Therrien

27-30

-7.6

Dan Bylsma

18-7

+7.0

2008-09 NYR

Tom Renney

31-30

-5.6

John Tortorella

12-9

+1.5

2008-09 CHI

Denis Savard

1-3

-2.2

Joel Quenneville

45-33

+3.0

2008-09 MON

Guy Carbonneau

35-31

-3.4

Bob Gainey

6-10

-6.4

2008-09 OTT

Craig Hartsburg

17-31

-15.4

Cory Clouston

19-15

+5.5

2008-09 CAR

Peter Laviolette

12-13

-1.2

Paul Maurice

33-23

+5.8

2008-09 TB

Barry Melrose

6-11

-4.5

Rick Tocchet

20-46

-16.4

2007-08 OTT

John Paddock

36-28

-4.3

Bryan Murray

7-10

-4.4

2007-08 WAS

Glen Hanlon

6-15

-6.7

Bruce Boudreau

36-24

+12.8

2007-08 ATL

Bob Hartley

0-6

-6.0

Don Waddell

34-42

+1.4

2006-07 PHI

Ken Hitchcock

1-7

-5.7

John Stevens

21-53

-17.2

2006-07 STL

Mike Kitchen

7-21

-11.2

Andy Murray

27-27

+16.0

2006-07 CBJ

Gerard Gallant

5-10

-4.7

Gary Agnew/Ken Hitchcock***

28-39

+5.7

2006-07 CHI

Trent Yawney

7-14

-2.9

Denis Savard

24-37

-3.4

2005-06 NJD

Larry Robinson

13-18

-6.3

Lou Lamiorello

32-18

+10.7

2005-06 NYI

Steve Stirling

18-23

-4.2

Brad Shaw

18-22

-0.2

2005-06 PIT

Ed Olczyk

8-22

-10.1

Michel Therrien

14-37

-10.1

2005-06 MON

Claude Julien

18-22

-4.9

Bob Gainey

23-18

+5.2

2005-06 LA

Andy Murray

37-32

-1.6

John Torchetti

5-7

-0.8

TOTAL

583-851 (40.7%)

-284.6 (-19.8% ROI)

TOTAL

1024-1166 (46.8%)

-39.2 (-1.8% ROI)

(* Co-Coaches) (** Stevens went 2-2 as interim before Sutter took over) (***Agnew went 0-5 as interim before Hitchcock took over)

As we can see, the coaches that were fired were, in general, terrible. From a gambling standpoint, betting on them would have resulted in close to a -20% ROI, which is a feat in itself. Just as a guideline, if you had bet on each team, every game, for the past decade, you’d end up at about a -2% ROI.

Seven of the coaches that were fired had winning records at the time and only one was profitable (Randy Carlyle, 2014-15 Toronto). On the flipside, nine teams were more than 10 units in the red at the time they fired their coach. Edmonton’s Dallas Eakins was the worst at -15.8 units at the time of his firing.

If we look at the replacements, we see wildly different results. As a whole, their winning percentage is about 6% higher than the coaches they replaced. Their ROI essentially returns to the average of -2%.

34 of the 45 teams had a better winning percentage with their replacement coach, which means that 75% of the time, firing the coach is at least a short-term improvement. Strangely enough, that same 75% rate has applied to the four teams that have fired their coach this season.

17 of the 45 have actually had records over .500, while 20 have been profitable. While 75% of the replacements have helped their team become “better”, only about half of those teams have actually been “good”. Obviously some of these teams would have been cellar-dwellers no matter who was behind the bench so some of the blame has to be put on the players rather than the coach.

A handful of these teams have gone on to make the playoffs and as you’ll see, they’ve had quite a bit of success.

Year

Coach

Record

Units

Result

2015-16 PIT

Mike Sullivan

16-8

+4.9

Won Stanley Cup

2015-16 MIN

John Torchetti

2-4

-1.4

Lost in 1st Rd

2014-15 OTT

David Cameron

2-4

-1.7

Lost in 1st Rd

2013-14 PHI

Craig Berube

3-4

-0.6

Lost in 1st Rd

2011-12 WAS

Dale Hunter

7-7

+2.3

Lost in 2nd Rd

2011-12 LAK

Darryl Sutter

16-4

+11.2

Won Stanley Cup

2011-12 STL

Ken Hitchcock

4-5

-1.9

Lost in 2nd Rd

2009-10 PHI

Peter Laviolette

14-9

+4.2

Lost Stanley Cup

2008-09 PIT

Dan Bylsma

16-7

+7.2

Won Stanley Cup

2008-09 NYR

John Tortorella

3-4

+0.6

Lost in 1st Rd

2008-09 CHI

Joel Quenneville

9-8

0.0

Lost in 3rd Rd

2008-09 MON

Bob Gainey

0-4

-4.0

Lost in 1st Rd

2008-09 CAR

Paul Maurice

8-10

+0.2

Lost in 3rd Rd

2007-08 OTT

Bryan Murray

0-4

-4.0

Lost in 1st Rd

2007-08 WAS

Bruce Boudreau

2-4

-1.9

Lost in 1st Rd

2005-06 NJD

Lou Lamiorello

5-4

-1.3

Lost in 2nd Rd

2005-06 MON

Bob Gainey

2-4

-0.5

Lost In 1st Rd

Total

109-94 (53.7%)

+13.3 (6.6% ROI)

Three of the 11 Stanley Cups won in this sample size have been won by replacement coaches. 16 teams make the playoffs each year, making a total of 176 playoff teams over the past 11 seasons. Only 17 teams with replacement coaches have made the playoffs, which is essentially 10% of the total. With that being said, statistically, you’d expect maybe one of those teams to win the Stanley Cup, not three.

A replacement coach can’t turn a terrible team into a great one, but they have shown their ability to turn an average team into a great one. For all you NHL executives out there reading this, if you’re on the fence about firing your coach: do it.

1 Comment

John bub

02/13/2017 at 5:55 pm

Nice article Mark. Can you tell me what the record of these teams is on the 1st game with the new coach? I know it’s 3-1 this year, it’s a favorite angle of mine, I wonder if it’s a winning move. Thanks