Trade and Conflict in the Cold War Era: An Empirical Analysis Using Directed Dyads (with Neal Beck)

What is the relationship between trade and conict in the post-World War II era? Using a directed dyad-year design, and a sample of both all dyads and of politically relevant dyads, this paper uses the generalized additive model to study the relationship between dyadic trade and militarized interstate disputes (both all disputes and those involving casualties). Trade appears to have a non-linear impact on conflict, with increases in dyadic trade sometimes being conflictual and sometimes being pacific. In any event, there is little evidence for a causal pacific impact of trade, but also little evidence that trade is inherently conflictual, other than it being an obvious necessary condition for trade disputes and also signaling that dyadic partners are in some interesting relationships.

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