U.S. rice production, export estimates higher

U.S. rice production in 2010-11 is forecast at a record 255.3 million cwt, 9.4 million cwt more than last month due to both an increase in area harvested and yield, according to the World Agricultural Supply and Demand (WASDE) Report.

Sep 15, 2010

U.S. rice production in 2010-11 is forecast at a record 255.3 million cwt, 9.4 million cwt more than last month due to both an increase in area harvested and yield, according to the World Agricultural Supply and Demand (WASDE) Report. Harvested area is estimated at 3.62 million acres, 130,000 acres more than last month and the second- highest on record. The average yield is estimated at 7,047 pounds per acre, 8 pounds per acre more than the previous estimate. Long-grain production is estimated at a record 191.8 million cwt, 4.6 million cwt more than last month, while combined medium- and short-grain production is estimated at 63.5 million, an increase of 4.9 million.

All rice beginning stocks for 2010-11 are raised 2.8 million cwt from last month to 36.7 million based on USDA's Rice Stocks report released on Aug. 27. The import projection is reduced slightly based in part on the revised 2009-10 estimate and the recent trend of little-to-no growth in imports. Domestic and residual use for 2010-11 is lowered 2 million cwt to 127 million based mostly on a reduction in the 2009-10 estimate.

Exports for 2010-11 are projected at 119 million cwt, 5 million cwt more than last month, and 8.8 million more than the revised 2009-10 estimate. Long-grain exports are raised 3 million cwt to 83 million, and combined medium- and short-grain export estimates have increased 2 million to 36 million. Larger exports are expected to the Middle East and the Western Hemisphere. Ending stocks for 2010-11 are projected at 65.5 million cwt, 8.7 million more than last month, 28.8 million more than the previous 2009-10 estimate, and the largest stocks since 1985-86.

The 2010-11 all rice season-average farm price is forecast at $10.30 to $11.30 per cwt, 45 cents per cwt lower on each end of the range from last month compared to $14.00 per cwt for 2009-10. The long-grain season-average farm price range is projected at $8.50 to $9.50 per cwt, 50 cents per cwt less than last month compared to $12.80 per cwt for 2009-10. The combined medium- and short-grain farm price range is projected at $16.00 to $17.00 per cwt, $1.00 per cwt less on each end of the range from last month compared to a revised $17.70 per cwt for 2009-10.

Projected global 2010-11 rice supplies and use are both lowered from last month. Global rice production is projected at a record 454.6 million tons, 4.6 million tons less than last month's estimate, mainly due to large declines for several countries including China, Indonesia, and Pakistan.

China's 2010-11 rice crop is reduced 1.5 million tons to 136 million, because of a decrease in the early rice crop. Both area and yield are reduced by early season drought in some areas combined with late-season flooding in other areas. Indonesia's 2010-11 rice crop is reduced 2 million tons to 38 million, based in part on a report from the U.S. agricultural counselor in Jakarta. Indonesia's 2009-10 rice crop is also reduced - a reduction of 1.7 million tons to 37.1 million. Indonesia's yield growth has stagnated due to weather, pests, and disease problems. Pakistan's 2010-11 rice crop is reduced by 1.2 million tons or 18 percent to 5.3 million as severe flooding lowered both area and average yield.

Global 2010-11 exports are reduced by 600,000 tons to 31 million, mainly because of a reduction for Pakistan. Global consumption is lowered by nearly 2.3 million tons, because of decreases for China (-500,000) and Indonesia (-1.35 million). Global ending stocks for 2010-11 are projected at 94.6 million tons, 3 million less than last month, but up slightly from 2009-10. Stocks are lowered for China, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Iran, and raised for the United States.