by Sven A. Bjorke, Feb 2017

The sail ship era did not end because of a lack of wind, but because better alternatives were found. The fossil fuel era will end when better alternatives are available. It is happening now.

Oil and coal-billionaires, petro-tyrants and extreme Islamists live high on fossil fuels. These men are willing to do anything; start wars and destroy the future of their own grandchildren, to delay the inevitable shift from the fossil fuel paradigm to the sustainable development paradigm.

The world’s largest (1) oil-exporters: President Putin and the Saudi royal family, in close cooperation with US oil executives and the OPEC regimes, are fighting with their backs against the wall. The green shift (2) has begun, and oil prices will never return to the high altitudes (3). After a possible short-lived upturn the next two or three years, the price will likely plunge to below 20 dollars a barrel during the next ten years (4). In that case Putin’s possible imperial plans will collapse (5). Extreme wahhabist missionaries (6) with pockets full of petrodollars must end their operations in the Middle East, Africa and Europe. Anti-democratic oil tycoons like the Koch brothers (7) in the United States can no longer buy entire political parties.

Wars in the Middle East are mainly about oil. Photo: Å. Bjørke

The hegemony wars between Saudi groups and Iran groups will come to a halt (8). True enough, many of the oil fields in the Middle East might still be profitable (9), but the tremendous economic influence some Arab states have today will be broken. For non-OPEC exporters like Norway only a few large oil fields will be barely profitable (10) when the price goes below 30 dollars a barrel, especially if all costs and externalities are included.

Being in the forefront on green technology is an advantage

Unlike most OPEC regimes, Norwegians are in the fortunate position of having a well-educated population and a well-functioning social system. Norway should therefore exploit it and stay ahead of the green shift, and as soon as possible build up more economic legs to stand on. “Dutch disease” even for the Norwegian economy is a threat to consider. Other oil-exporting countries are currently far behind, and will fight with what means they have for more time.

Delay the shift at any cost!

The fossil – and tobacco industry’s propaganda machinery has the mission to delay the green shift another few years. – Do whatever, but the flood of the daily billions of petrodollars (11) to the world’s richest and most powerful men must be maintained yet awhile! Heartland Institute, Breitbart News, Cato Institute and dozens of similar propaganda institutions are working hard to spread “alternative facts,” “fake news,” seemingly scientific information and sow confusion and paralysis. The Merchants of doubt (12) are on the job. They managed to install an obedient, burly servant in the White House. They got the director of the world’s largest publicly traded oil company in as Secretary of State (13). As previous partner with Aramco and with Putin, he has close personal links to the Saudi royal family and the Russian President. The picture of the global, a bit awkward, fossil alliance between Russia, petro-tyrants in OPEC and the US “Big Oil” (14) is becoming increasingly clear. Putin has already managed what the Donald tries to do: remove climate and environment as topics in the mass media. Those who might try, will be confronted with an army of network control trolls as a first step (15).

Daily burning of billions of litres of oil unproblematic?

Politically extreme activists and other stooges of the global fossil alliance present increasingly imaginative stories to assure the public that the daily burning of billions (16) of litres of fossil fuels is not at all problematic. To divert the attention from the elephant in the room, they holler and point to mouse droppings and flies in the window. “The infrared spectrum is saturated.” “It’s getting colder.” “It has been as hot before.” “It’s just a natural variation, nothing to worry about.” “The models do not work.” “It snows more in Antarctica,” “UN, science and world political leaders conspire against humanity” etc. They can “prove” this by referencing to ‘research’ from Heartland Institute (17) with its associate NIPCC, complemented with Canadian tar-sand- funded pink blogs presented as investigating journalism. Dozens of such “think tanks” get millions of dollars (18) from the fossil industry to organize net trolls, produce disinformation, spread doubt and paralysis. Unfortunately, they have also managed to infiltrate and sabotage the IPCC (19). Heads of state of OPEC countries, the US and Russia have demanded entry for fossil lobbyists, also into scientific sessions. The IPCC reports, in particular the synthesis report and the second and third sections therefore underreport problems (20).

West Europeans more over to energy companies?

Fortunately, Western European oil companies (21) seem less tied to extreme Arab petro-interests than the Americans. European companies are therefore further ahead in the necessary transition to become energy companies. EU / EEA should continue to add clear political guidelines (22) to continue the development and avoid being manipulated by short-term and politically extreme Arab-American-Russian interests. Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi and other oil exporters reluctantly see the end of the fossil-period and position themselves by renewable energy projects (23) and large-scale acquisitions of Western companies. Even Aramco considers entering stock exchange listing (24) to finance such acquisitions.

The elephant in the room

The elephant in the room is large and complex: The oil age will probably end in 20 years from now (3). Investments today that need more time to break even will never become profitable. Some analysts believe this is an optimistic time frame, suggesting 10 years as more realistic if the Paris Agreements is observed. One of the most important jobs for Donald and his friends is to sabotage such agreements and reduce investments in renewables, which they started from day one in the White House. The current president of the USA and his entire cabinet will personally become richer for every crisis, disaster and war they manage to start. As Naomi Klein says: “No is not enough“. Donald is the master of disaster.

Pollution follows the fossil fuels

Tall chimneys do not prevent pollution. Photo: Å. Bjørke

Air pollution from the burning of almost 100 million barrels of oil per day and the equivalent of coal and gas is choking many places, and causes an early death for seven million people annually (25). China and India are particularly bothered by air pollution, and now invest heavily in renewable energy (26). Acidification of oceans threatens bioproduction (27) and oxygen production (28). Global climate change is underway, with rising sea levels (29), the melting of glaciers (30), increasing freshwater shortages (31), more extreme weather (32), longer and hotter droughts interrupted by periods of extreme flooding. Coral reefs (33) die worldwide. Agricultural production is threatened (34).

Heat waves can make large areas of the world uninhabitable in this century (35). Fish and animal species migrate northward or to higher ground to escape warming (36).

Refugee flows and capital accumulation

Refugee flows are already cumbersome (37). Capital accumulation in petro-tyrannies is enormous, and combined with changing climates, the damage caused is so significant that the entire Western civilization and world economic systems are threatened (38).

Aramco alone has a total capital that is greater than the five largest Western listed companies (39) have combined.

You do not need to assess infrared spectrum saturation and calculate radiative forcing, atmospheric CO2 and methane sensitivity. Intricate, bombastic truisms presented as sensations, complicated and irrelevant calculations and marginal speculation in scientific jargon is just part of the propaganda tricks to make you doubt.

The transformation has started – and it is unstoppable

See the elephant in the room. Do not be fooled. The transformation happens with you or without you. Take a position. Participate in the green (40) transition now!