The Colts will be playing this Sunday’s game with heavy hearts. Head Coach Chuck Pagano will miss the game after being diagnosed with leukemia earlier this week. The health and safety of the league’s players and coaches is more important than the outcome of any game, and all of PFF sends their best wishes to Coach Pagano, his family, and the Colts organization. It is a fate that no man should have to go through, and we’d all like to see the coach back and healthy on the sidelines as soon as possible.

This Week 5 matchup at Lucas Oil Stadium marks the return of center Jeff Saturday to Indianapolis where he played for 13 seasons. Saturday was a fan favorite in Indy for his attitude and elite play. The center may be starting to show his age this year with an overall grade of -2.2, but it is still early on in the season.

The Colts are fresh off of a bye week and have rebounded nicely after their Week 1 debacle against the Bears. The defense in particular has looked more adept in their new 3-4 hybrid, and has given up only 37 points in Weeks 2 and 3 combined, compared to 41 in week 1. It should be even better this week, as they get back their elite edge rusher Dwight Freeney who has missed all but nine plays this season. The Packer’s will counter with the return of running back James Starks, who is expected to play, although to what extent is still unknown.

Robert Mathis vs. Bryan Bulaga

This matchup features two players whose play hasn’t lived up to their past achievements. Robert Mathis, although he has four sacks, has not been able to get the consistent pressure he is known for. He has only four hurries and one hit on the season. His struggles will certainly be eased by the return of Freeney, but I think they could also be helped with more pass rushing opportunities. I noted after Week 1 that Mathis was dropping into coverage a lot more than he had in the past. In fact his 24 total coverage plays in Weeks 1 and 2 were more than his Past four years combined. The Colts seemed to realize that they needed Mathis’ pass rushing ability, and in Week 3 he dropped into coverage only three times. I look for this trend to continue against the Packers who are passing 69% of the time this year. This should mean a bevy of obvious pass rushing situations for Mathis and Freeney.

Clear passing situations haven’t been right tackle Brian Bulaga’s forte this season. The nightmare that was the Seattle game saw him give up two sacks, a hit, and eight hurries as he ended up with the worst grade of his career. Bulaga’s strength is run blocking, and it is one that the Packers will have to utilize in this game to win this matchup. Putting up pass after pass will be playing to the Colts’ strengths.

A Real Running Threat

To say the Packers’ running game has been lacking through four weeks would be an understatement. Not only have they been limited in yardage, ranking 25th in the league in yards per game, they have been limited in their big plays, as was pointed out in this week’s Breakaway Percentage piece. This isn’t an indictment of their offensive line, which has played on par with 2011’s performance (on pace for -18.8 cumulative run blocking compared to -18.3 last year). The ineffectiveness falls squarely on free-agent pickup Cedric Benson who just hasn’t been getting the job done. He hasn’t had a breakaway run all year, while Randall Cobb has produced two such runs on only two carries, and Benson’s Elusive Rating is a mediocre 23.8 compared to James Starks’ 61.0 in 2011.

This will certainly be a point of contention because of the Colts’ shortcomings against the run so far. Incredibly, no starter on the Colts’ defense has a positive grade against the run. Even though it was the big pass that burned the Colts in their last game, it was the Jaguars’ 5.8 yards per carry that cost them the game. The Colts just plain can’t afford to have the Packers beat them with the run in this game.

Andrew Luck vs. Packers Secondary

Green Bay’s corners and safeties have made a living off the turnover ever since Charles Woodson signed with them all the way back in 2006. Since then, the Packers have never been ranked lower than sixth in interceptions and have been ranked first, second, and first again since Dom Capers took over as defense coordinator in 2009. The Packers will jump routes and take chances gambling that they’ll make the right calls more than the opposing quarterback. Against young and inexperienced quarterbacks, the Packers usually win that gamble. Rookie quarterbacks have a combined grade of -1.5 with six interceptions in four games against the Packers since 2011.

Andrew Luck is not just any rookie quarterback though. The No. 1 pick has led go-ahead drives with under 2:00 left in the fourth quarter in back-to-back games. He has shown great intangibles and athleticism (+3.4 running), but his accuracy will be a concern in this game. Luck’s Accuracy Percentage is 65.8%, good for only 29th in the league. The quarterback mold that has seen success against the Green Bay secondary is the extremely accurate quick passer (e.g. Alex Smith, Drew Brees) and inconsistency plays right into the Packers’ hands (e.g. Jay Cutler). For Luck to be successful he has to improve on his -1.3 grade on passes less than 10 yards. If he can’t it could be a long day.

Yep. The Defense is improved over last year, though they are still a pretty weak unit overall with mediocre LB play.

the problem is the offense right now. I do not get what the hell happened with them but they are a disaster. They look ******* soft on that side of the ball. WR's can't get any separation vs the Colts DB's? Really? Run game is weak and they give up on it very quickly. D's aren't even buying the PA fake. Rodgers has been way off with his accuracy this year, especially on the deep ball. They have been unable to get ANY explosive plays. OL play has not been good and it doesn't help that Rodgers just holds onto the ball FOREVER

that 2nd half was embarrassing. They got thoroughly dominated by the Colts and had NO answer. None

They should have controlled that game after going up 21-3 and instead it was just completely reversed. Pathetic performance and now they are realistically looking at being 2-4 after next sunday, with them then having to go @ St Louis who will give them a hard fought game as well

1)I already knew the o-line was bad, its been bad the entire McCarthy tenure it has its moments but for some reason people think its respectable, it blows.

1a) We cant run the ball. Again ever since McCarthy has been here we have had one of the worst running attacks in football. I cringe almost evertime I see a handoff because I basically expect a 1-3 yard loss.

2) Aaron Rodgers? Dude what has happened to you? I know last year is almost unrepeatable but seriously. He has missed deep throws the entire year (something he rarely did last year). He has been off on alot of other throws. He holds the ball way to long and just something isnt right.

3) Finely... I had your back for awhile but not anymore, you suck.

3a) Has/does our team lead the league in drops? We have had serious issues the last 2 years at catching the ball.

4) Pressure on the QB, you rarely see it. Our LBers are slow and cant cover. Matthews is obviously excluded as he is a beast.

5) DBs still have breakdowns and busted plays. Besides the fact that they cant seem to cover and our D cant get off the field on 3rd down.

6) Did I hear the announcers say we have one of the best FG kickers in the game? please.. I still have no confidence in Crosby when it comes to game tying or winning kicks. That was probably one of the saddest ass kicks ive ever seen. What was he aiming for the water boy?

7) Playcalling.. sucks, nuff said

While the defense seems to be improved from a horrible year last year... Awful to slightly terrible... The offense is really starting to concern me. What we did last year was special, but this year they dont even appear to be a fraction of that team. We are now 5 weeks in what is going on! While the season is young I just dont see how this team as it currently looks would survive a playoff game if we somehow managed to make it there.

and this D will continue to be mediocre at BEST until they improve their ILB play. Hawk/Smith are 2 slugs with minimal athleticism. That's not what you want from your ILB's in a 3-4 D

with that said, the Offense is what's holding them back this year and they need to step things up

I can't help but think that last year may have caused Rodgers and Co to develop some bad habits. I've seen guys open UNDERNEATH and Rodgers isn't even looking at them, instead forcing it deep to a receiver who has like 2 defenders on him. Trying too hard for the explosive plays that just aren't there

take the damn underneath stuff

next week is going to be so ugly if this is the kind of play we are going to see from this team. The season could very well go down the drain after this road trip. @ HOU and @ St Louis will be very, very tough and they can't really afford more losses. Vikes will be 4-1 very shortly, Bears will likely beat the Jags today to go to 4-1 as well. Falling further and further back of them

Two big problems in the second half of that game came from Mike McCarthy and Rodgers... I don't know which one it specifically is, but what I see is either play calling that is taking to long to develop or a quarterback who is holding onto to the ball to long looking for the home run ball.

So... which one is it??? The reason these teams are getting the pressure they are is because of the long developing plays and Rodgers holding onto the ball. In the first half we dinked and ducked down the field and ripped through their defense and in the 2nd half we didn't look for those plays at all.

What also happened on the last play of the game b4 the shank? Can't believe we had to waste our last T/O so we didn't get a delay of game. A few more yards could have really helped. Crosby would have missed from 10 yards with that kick. But maybe if it would have been 35-45 yards it wouldn't have been so daunting for him and therefore he wouldn't have completely shanked it.

Running game seemed to be doing Ok until Benson went out. Alex Green showed poor vision. He seems to be alright in a spread formation if the oline can create big holes as they did on his big and crucial run. Outside of that he was awful.

On the play calling...Cobb was killing them over the middle in the first half and they seemed to go away from that in the 2nd half until the final drive. I just don't get it. I say keep doing it until they show they can stop it.

Feel sorry for pass rushers these days if that is a penalty on Perry. Can't touch the helmet. Can't hit them below the waist. Can't form tackle. What are these guys supposed to do? Also, feel bad for Shields. He takes a lot of heat around here, but that was about as well as you can play cornerback and it lead directly to a TD for Indy.

How many times would it have taken for Luck to target Wayne before the defense finally realized that maybe paying him some extra attention would be a good idea?

I'm done with CApers. This has been a trend with all of his defenses. They do great in the first few years, then just get worse and worse. They may need a scheme change

and, hate to say it, but, Rodgers needs to elevate his game. He's as big a culprit as any for how poor this offense has been. He has not played anywhere near the elite QB he SHOULD be. Dude got straight up outplayed by a rookie QB

I still feel ill over the 2nd half.
Can't put my finger on why Rodgers is off. Not only off, with his deep throws (missed a wide-open Jordy for a deep TD just minutes before I saw rookie Brandon Weeden hit a similar throw for a Cleveland TD), but he also late in the game when we need to score, on 2nd & 5 after an Alex 5-yard gain, Rodgers has all day in the pocket, but he waits and waits and waits, and then accepts a sack and it's now 3rd & 12.
Then they break free fast on 3rd down for another sack.

Also on our game-leading TD, the 2-point conversion, he rolls right..... then before the LB gets to him he just forces, wastes, the throw to the back of the end zone to the double-covered WR, even though Alex Green was UNeffingCOVERED right in the end zone for the easy 2 and a 7-point lead.

And then with a saved timeout and time for one play to get either closer for the choker Crosby, or perhaps a shot deep for the win, Rodgers lets the playclock get down to 1 and has to burn the last TO! Are you serious? This guy has looked clueless out there at times, like a rookie.

I don't know if he and Jennings have lost something filming so many commercials.
I don't know if we tinkered with the pass routes too much, or not enough and the defense knows our deal.... or if the WRs just don't get open like before. Some of it is Rodgers accuracy, but guys just aren't open like before. And the Colts were missing 2 of their top 3 CBs, so imagine us missing Tramon and Woodson, or Shields.
That team was also missing 2 starting OL.

We also managed to, and this is hard to do, make Donald Brown look good. Too many times, guys on the edge like Nick Perry, and J McMillian that I saw, lost containment and let Brown just run around the edge.