News and analysis on politics, human rights and civil society in Latin America by Geoffrey Ramsey

Tuesday, October 9, 2012

Chavez Wins Re-election in Venezuela

With more than 95 percent
of votes counted, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has won his bid for re-election,
beating opposition candidate Henrique Capriles by an 11 percent margin. According
to the official
tally of the National Electoral Council (CNE), Chavez took 55.14 percent of
the vote, while Capriles won 44.24 percent. As a map
of election results compiled by El Universal shows, Chavez led his opponent
in all but two states: Merida and Tachira.

The Capriles campaign
has conceded Chavez’s victory, and El
Universal reports that representatives of his Democratic Unity Coalition (MUD)
have acknowledged there is no evidence of election fraud, although they maintain
that Chavez’s use of state media in his campaign gave him an unfair advantage. A
study conducted by the private Andres Bello Catholic University contradicts
this, however, finding that Capriles had received more
media coverage on average than Chavez as of September 16th. CNE
officials made
a similar claim in July. Another factor supporting the legitimacy of Chavez’s
victory is the large turnout; CNE records show that more than 80 percent of all
eligible citizens took part in the election, setting a new record for voter
participation in the country.

Despite Chavez’s clear triumph,
the reduced scale of his win is significant. This is Chavez’s fourth electoral
challenge since taking office in 1999, and his narrowest margin of victory yet.
This suggests mounting dissatisfaction with the president’s administration,
which could represent a threat to his mandate in the future. Reuters
claims that Chavez’s comparatively small lead (when compared to previous
elections) reflects “growing frustration among Venezuelans at day-to-day
problems” like pervasive crime and energy distribution issues.

The tight race also
calls the political future of Capriles into question. The opposition candidate
-- who has served as a congressman, mayor and governor and until now has never
lost a race -- made a name for himself as a
poster child of center-left opposition to Chavez, but will his legacy endure?
The diverse MUD coalition is fractured along ideological lines, and Capriles may
face internal challenges to his leadership now that elections are over. As Venezuela
analyst David Smilde of WOLA’s
Venezuela Politics and Human Rights blog writes, “if Capriles had lost by
5% or less, his dominance in the opposition coalition would have been ensured.
But losing by almost 10% means there could well be a struggle for leadership.”

But Venezuelan political
analyst Luis Vicente Leon, whose polling firm Datanalisis has proven to be one
of the most reliable sources of public opinion data in the country, rejects
this. “Nobody in the opposition camp will blame Capriles for the defeat; what
they’ll say is that he needs time,” Leon told Spanish
news agency EFE. Leon predicts that although
Capriles will have to face some “internal monsters” in the MUD, he will likely emerge
as a political heavyweight in the future.

In his victory speech, Chavez
called his re-election “a
perfect battle,” but while he may have won this battle, the “war” against
his opposition isn’t over. Venezuela will hold elections for governors and
state legislators on December 16th, and according to the Miami
Herald, the seemingly rising dissatisfaction with Chavez could cost his
United Socialist Party (PSUV) votes in several states. With opinion polls on the
December elections unavailable at the moment, however, this seems like little
more than speculation. El
Tiempo points out that just the opposite could take place, as Chavez’s
victory in opposition-held states like Miranda, Carabobo, Nueva Esparta and
Zulia could indicate a surge of support for the PSUV. Either way, the imminent regional
elections (and the mayoral elections scheduled for April) mean that both the Chavez
government and the opposition will likely remain in some variation of “campaign
mode” for the next several months.

News Briefs

The Mexican Navy claims
that it may have killed one of the most wanted drug traffickers in the country
-- Zetas leader Heriberto Lazcano -- in a shootout on Sunday in the northern
state of Coahuila. El
Universal reports that Navy officials announced yesterday that they have “strong
indications” that Lazcano was one of two suspects killed in the incident,
although they are awaiting DNA tests to be sure. The
New York Times claims that the death of Lazcano, a top Zetas commander,
would likely amount to the "biggest victory" of outgoing Mexican
President Felipe Calderon’s administration.

Brazil held municipal
elections on Sunday, which the AP
notes is the country’s first elections under the newly-passed "Clean
Record" law, which bars officials convicted of a wide range of crimes from
holding public office. Reuters
takes a look at the lackluster performance of the ruling Workers’ Party,
and analyst James Bosworth lays out five
key points on the elections.

Speaking in Uruguay on
Monday at the 10th Conference of Ministers of Defense of the
Americas, U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta called on Latin American
governments not
to depend on their militaries for internal security. "To be clear, the
use of the military to perform civil law enforcement cannot be a long-term
solution," said Panetta.

Colombia’s Caracol
Radio reports that the Colombian government will receive $1.5 million from
the international community to fund reconciliation and re-integration programs
in six areas throughout the country, to be implemented concurrently with the
upcoming peace talks with FARC rebels in Oslo, Norway.

Colombian President
Juan Manuel Santos resumed the responsibilities of his office on Monday after
undergoing surgery for prostate cancer last week, according to the AFP.

Haitian Prime Minister Laurent
Lamothe told The
Miami Herald on Monday that the Caribbean country is seeking to raise $100
million in revenue in order to fund a “National Education Fund.” The official
claimed that the funds would be raised through excise taxes on alcohol, tobacco
and lottery tickets.

The Guatemalan
government is investigating the death of eight indigenous protesters who were
reportedly killed by soldiers during a protest last Thursday in the
northwestern province of Totonicapan. Siglo21
reports that judicial authorities are looking into the claims of seven soldiers
who say they fired into the air and “in self-defense” when called to break up
the protest. Inter
Press Service notes that the incident has led some to draw comparisons to
the country’s bloody 1960-1996 civil war, causing Guatemalan President Otto
Perez to call on social movements in the country to avoid
appealing to “ghosts of the past.”

The Chilean Supreme
Court has upheld a $50,000 fine against Starbucks Corporation over its labor
practices, after unionized employees claimed they were threatened with layoffs
and cuts to their benefits during a strike, La
Tercera and Reuters
report.

Cuban opposition blogger
Yoani Sanchez was arrested last Thursday while attempting to cover the trial of
Angel Carromero, a Spanish citizen accused of causing the July 22nd
car wreck which killed opposition activist Oswaldo Paya. Sanchez and other opposition figures have
expressed doubt over the cause of Paya’s death. According to the Washington
Post Sanchez was released after 30 hours in captivity, long enough for her
to have missed the trial.

About The Author

Geoff Ramsey works as a communications officer for the Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA). Before joining WOLA, Ramsey worked as a researcher for the Open Society Foundation’s Latin America Program. His most recent work involved monitoring civil society advocacy for and implementation of 2013 drug policy reforms in Uruguay, where he lived for nearly two years. Prior to that he spent two years living in Colombia and Brazil, where he researched and reported on regional insecurity issues for InSight Crime. Any views or opinions expressed in these posts are the sole responsibility of the author. Email: gramsey (at) thepanamericanpost (dot) com