Cleveland Indians first base prospect Bobby Bradley, the 2014 June Amateur Draft 97th overall pick, had a mostly successful season in the minor leagues in 2016. Here is my analysis of Mr. Bradley that looks closely at his 2016 performance. I will finish with a look towards the future. Stats courtesy of FanGraphs.com.

Traditional 5 x 5 Roto Stats:

In A+ ball Mr. Bradley had 572 plate appearances. He hit for a .235 average with 29 home runs, 82 runs and 102 RBI’s. He had 3 steals in 3 attempts. Obviously he has tons of thunder and power in his bat, a bat that has plus bat speed. He, however, will not steal you many bases and strikes out a lot.

Power Sabermetric Stats:

2016 saw an A+ ball isolated power (ISO) of .231. Anyone from .200 to .299 I consider a solid power hitter. ISO tends to stabilize at about 160 at-bats. So, if a player is hitting for power through his first 160 at-bats then he has a good chance of maintaining his high ISO going forward. We do need to keep in mind with prospects that as they age they will in general grow into more power. Some will grow into a lot more power, and some just a little more. For a first base prospect that is 20-years-old, there is nothing not to love about his ISO.

I like using wOBA instead of batting average in my player analysis because wOBA gives home runs the most value followed by triples, doubles, singles and finishing with walks getting the least value. Not all hits are created equal. Batting average assumes they are, wOBA gives weight to the better hits.

Given his power production it shouldn’t be a surprise to see him with a A+ ball .363 wOBA (above average). It would even be better if, somehow, some way, he could cut down on his strikeouts while maintaining the power numbers.

wRC+ is similar to the more mainstream OPS+ statistic. 100 is league average. Anything above that is above league average and below that is, naturally, below league average. This sabermetric statistic basically shows what hitters are better at producing runs and it is adjusted for park and league effects.

Given Mr. Bradley’s wOBA it should not be a surprise to find out that he was 21% better than league average (121 wRC+) in A+ ball.

I think it is helpful to take a quick look at these plate discipline sabermetric statistics. When looking at these two statistics some star players will grade out as below average or worse in these areas. Many power hitters will have this issue. Be careful to realize the type of player we are talking about and factor that in when reading.

Mr. Bradley had a K% of 29.7% at A+ ball in 2016. This receives a grade of beyond awful from me. With a 13.1% BB% (great) and the 29 home runs he hit in 2016 you can see he is a classic three true outcomes player (which means his plate appearances will have a high likelihood of either a strikeout, walk or home run). The true question is will he ultimately become a AAAA hitter, in other words, one that dominates enough at the AAA ball level but not enough production to be a MLB hitter. But, let’s not get ahead of ourselves here, as he still needs to prove himself at AA and / or AAA ball.

What This All Means For 2017:

This will be a big season for Mr. Bradley, although, in reality they all are big seasons for minor league players trying to establish themselves or keeping their prospect stock as high as possible. He will be tested once again in the minor leagues. If he can cut down on his strikeouts in 2017 while maintaining his power numbers his future fantasy baseball value will surge. I am not in the business of predicting runs and RBI’s for hitters as they vary based upon where the manager chooses to hit them in the batting order and other various factors make them a bit unpredictable. Assuming Mr. Bradley has a full healthy 2017 I would project 27 home runs to go along with a .250 batting average with 3 stolen bases when you combine his stats from all levels of baseball.

If you enjoyed this article and are looking for a fresh perspective please CLICK HERE and get The Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit (sold during the off-season) or order a DFS baseball lineup! The Fantasy Baseball Addict 2017 Top 100 MLB Prospects are just one click away as well! Check out the list and as the 2016-17 off-season moves along every player on this list will have an analysis article done on him. So, be sure to bookmark that page as over time it will be a reference complete with links to easily get to these player specific analysis articles!

Coming Soon!

Justus Sheffield 2016-17 Off-Season Analysis

New York Yankees starting pitching prospect Justus Sheffield, the 2014 June Amateur Draft 31st overall pick, started a combined 25 games in A+ ball and AA ball in 2016. However, he only pitched 4 innings in AA ball so I won’t be analyzing those statistics. Here is my analysis of Mr. Sheffield that looks closely at his 2016 performance. I will finish with a look towards the future. Stats courtesy of FanGraphs.com.

Traditional 5 x 5 Roto Stats:

In A+ ball for the Cleveland Indians Mr. Sheffield pitched 95.1 innings and struck out 93 batters while compiling a 1.37 WHIP and 3.59 ERA. In A+ ball for the Yankees he pitched 26 innings and struck out 27 hitters with a 0.92 WHIP and 1.73 ERA.

K/BB:

2016 saw an A+ ball K/BB ratio of above average at 2.33 while with the Indians and in A+ ball with the Yankees it was higher at 2.70 (great). This is the first sabermetric statistic I look at when doing an analysis of a pitcher. It is great for fantasy baseball analysis. Strikeout rate is often referred to as dominance, while walk rate is often called control. What do you get when you couple high dominance (K) with good control (BB)? You get a pitcher who has great command and those are guys you want on your fantasy teams.

K/9:

K/9 is simply the number of strikeouts a pitcher has per every 9 innings pitched. I tend to look for pitchers who have a high K/9, as compiling a lot of strikeouts is a very important part of every fantasy baseball league.

In A+ ball in 2016 Mr. Sheffield had a 8.78 K/9 while with the Indians organization and while in A+ ball in the Yankees organization it was a 9.35 K/9. Anything between a 8.5 and 9.99 I consider great.

FIP:

FIP is Fielding Independent Pitching. It looks at a pitchers talents by taking into account stats only he can control. This sabermetric statistic should be compared to the ERA of that pitcher to see if there is a dramatic discrepancy between them. FIP tells you how well a pitcher should have done, not how well he did. This is the reason FIP is an excellent predictor statistic for fantasy baseball owners to use.

In A+ ball while with the Indians organization in 2016 Mr. Sheffield had a 3.59 ERA. His 3.80 FIP shows that he was a small bit lucky on the mound and should have had a little bit higher ERA. At A+ ball with the Yankees organization his ERA was 1.73 and at this stop his FIP (2.33) was higher, but the 2.33 FIP is excellent.

What This All Means For 2017:

Mr. Sheffield just needs to keep on doing what he has been doing, or better yet, cut down on the walks a bit. I am not in the business of predicting wins for pitchers as they vary based upon the number of runs scored when they are pitching and other various factors make them a bit unpredictable. Assuming Mr. Sheffield has a full healthy 2017 I would project 155 innings pitched with a 3.02 ERA and 158 strikeouts. The innings pitched is based off his 135.1 innings pitched in 2016. I assumed the Yankees will give him 19.2 more innings to pitch in 2017.

If you enjoyed this article and are looking for a fresh perspective please CLICK HERE and get The Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit (sold during the off-season) or order a DFS baseball lineup! The Fantasy Baseball Addict 2017 Top 100 MLB Prospects are just one click away as well! Check out the list and as the 2016-17 off-season moves along every player on this list will have an analysis article done on him. So, be sure to bookmark that page as over time it will be a reference complete with links to easily get to these player specific analysis articles!

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About Daniel Hilsgen

I'm a fantasy baseball addict and a paid writer at dynastysportsempire.com. I have a BS in Print Journalism from the University Of Wisconsin - River Falls. While in college I wrote briefly for the Associated Press. I have a deep love for sports, writing, baseball and fantasy baseball. You will find that I also love advanced statistics. I use these statistics and other information to form educated projections on baseball players future performance levels. Follow me on Twitter @FanBallAddict for easy access to my articles. In the off-season I have a fantasy baseball cheat sheet available for purchase. To purchase the fantasy baseball cheat sheet product or simply get on the contact list for it please email me at daniel.hilsgen@outlook.com

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