Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results from January 2- April 15, 2012):

Program

Status

Renew/ Cancel Index

Ringer

0.67

Nikita (F)

0.70

Gossip Girl

0.80

Hart Of Dixie

0.80

90210

0.97

The Secret Circle

1.04

Supernatural (F)

1.06

One Tree Hill

final season

1.09

Vampire Diaries

1.83

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The end is near, but not near enough for my headline writing imagination in these weekly CW posts.

Writing these posts with no new news and the same three at risk shows in the headline has made it ever more difficult to come up with something new. Instead, I settled on something the Google searchers will appreciate.

Don't suggest I headline a post with "Something Will Be Renewed". Relatively nobody searches for that.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

- certain to be cancelled by May, 2012

:cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012

- toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012

- more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012

- certain to be renewed by May, 2012

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

As much as I hate to admit it, the prediction for Ringer seems a little optimistic at this point.

JED

“Ringer” was the best show – ever – on The CW, but it should have been on CBS from the get go, and there it would have been a hit (hence, “A Gifted Man” and “Unforgettable” should have never been aired at all in my opinion).

The only shows that tend to get a final season order of 13 episodes are long running shows like One Tree Hill and Chuck. Hart of Dixie, The Secret Circle and Nikita are either on their first or second seasons and probably wouldn’t qualify for a “Final 13″. One of the few precedents for a newer show getting a 13 episode 2nd season would be something like Dollhouse that was renewed for a second season (22 episodes) then saw the show canceled and its order reduced to 13 episodes. Gossip Girl is probably the only show on the CW that would get a 13 episode final season order at this point. The other shows would likely just be canceled outright.

Andrew

Hart of Dixie deserves a renewal. if it doesn’t get one, you can be that I won’t watch their new shows next season.