I have been writing for Forbes since 2005. Prior to that I covered the business beat for the New York Daily News. Because I've studied both finance and journalism, and because I like both numbers & analysis and sports, what's a more fun job than merging the two, writing about sports from the business side and from the stat geek/number crunching side? I have a BS in business from Boston College and a masters in business journalism from New York University.

The NBA's Most Overpaid Players

You’ve probably heard that Knicks forward Carmelo Anthony dropped 90 points in his past two games, leading his club to victories over Miami and Atlanta. Only mild surprise there: the focal point of the Knicks’ offense all season, Anthony ‘s 28.1 points per game trails Oklahoma City’s Kevin Durant for the league lead by a just a whisker.

Except, Anthony isn’t Durant. Despite making about $2.7 million more this season, he isn’t even close. Durant gets his points taking four fewer shots per game than Anthony does (18 vs. 22). He shoots 50.5% from the floor to Anthony’s 44%. Durant averages 4.4 assists per game compared to Anthony’s 2.6, and 7.9 rebounds to Anthony’s 6.4.

As the new breed of statistical analysts like to point out, a primary scorer using extra shots to get his points means fewer shots for others (and hence fewer chances for additional points for the team). Assists lead directly to points, and every rebound gives your team a possession, which means a chance to score. Durant, in short, is an efficient player whose numbers translate into wins for his club. The same is true for LeBron James, Chris Paul and Tim Duncan. But not for Carmelo Anthony. And that’s why, at a 2012-13 salary of $19.4 million, Anthony tops our list as the NBA’s most overpaid player.

Following closely behind: Charlotte Bobcats’ guard Ben Gordon ($12.4 million; -2.1 wins produced), Brooklyn Nets guard Joe Johnson ($19.75 million; 1.5 wins produced) and Orlando Magic guard Helo Turkoglu ($11.8 million; -0.6 wins produced). The pattern is pretty clear: scorers that don’t do other things well and that don’t shoot a solid percentage from the field tend to be overvalued. For the flipside, see our rundown of the NBA’s Most Underpaid Players.

TheNBAGeek.com, a website run by Patrick Minton that features the work of Southern Utah economics professor David Berri, attempts to translate players’ efficiencies into what’s known as wins produced – largely how many possessions a player gains for his team during a typical game, and how many of his own scoring opportunities he’s cashing in. The model probably isn’t perfect, but the gist of it makes sense – a player taking a lot of shots to score while doing little in the way of passing or rebounding isn’t helping to win many games.

A note on making judgment calls for hurt players: we generally didn’t include strong players that have missed significant time with injuries recently, like Derrick Rose or Amare Stoudemire. But we did include those that have has trouble staying healthy for extended periods (at some point you need to show you can stay on the court), or whose performance had been fading for awhile anyway (like Hedo Turkoglu).

Anthony certainly had the efficiency numbers going in his two recent big games, shooting 18-for-26 against Miami and 17-for-27 against Atlanta. But just as common were two other recent games: an 11-for-28 night with zero assists against Charlotte on March 29, preceded by a 10-for-30 night with one assist against Boston on March 26.

Add it all up, and Anthony’s big scoring season and $19.4 million salary has produced less than one full win (0.7) for the Knicks, whose biggest contributor to a 48-26 record is center Tyson Chandler (10 points and 11 rebounds a game while shooting 64%). And for the record, Durant and James, premium scorers that are also efficient and multifaceted, have both contributed over 18 wins to their respective clubs, according to the numbers. No, Anthony is no Durant. He’s not even Tyson Chandler.

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Of course, you could ask, is a $330 million dollar lottery winner worth it? How do they justify their net worth, for even an overpaid NBA player is getting an order of magnitude lower recompense than a Mega Millions winner. So, given the existence of these lottery winners, aren’t we all grossly underpaid by comparison?

I understand the premise of this article that NBA players are overpaid in relations to their productivity. Workers are paid in proportion to what they contribute to the overall productivity of the business. This is the #1 fact about work that the entertainment business does not seem to understand.

I agree with some of this list (Gordon, Turkoglu, Maggette), but Carmelo doesn’t earn more than Durant because he’s better. We know he isn’t. Durant makes max money based on the NBA CBA.

Rather than comparing Anthony’s salary to anyone else’s, we should ask: How many players are more valuable than Carmelo Anthony? There aren’t many, so supply and demand is everything.

Even of those players, how many have the star power of Carmelo? For star power alone, he’s in the top 5 right now, and those bigger gate receipts and added merchandise sales are worth a lot more than added wins.

That said, he stinks in the clutch this year… just 38% shooting in the last 5 minutes of games with the game being 5 points or less. For comparison, KD is just 39.6% by this measure.

Obviously this author has little to no basketball knowledge. First, as Mike points out there is only so much a player can make on a max contract based on their years in the league. So comparing Durant’s contract to Melo is a flawed arguement.

Next, how are you going to compare the 2nd best player in the league to another player to prove they are overpaid? Using this logic, 99% of the NBA would be considered “overpaid”

Lastly, the author points out that Melo is not a winner like Chris Paul? Excuse me but how many rings does Chris Paul have? He only started having sucess on a team level after being traded to a talented Clippers roster. What did he do with the Hornets? Melo on the other hand has won an NCAA championship and helped turned the Knicks franchise that was in the dumps for over a decade into the #2 seed in the East.

The win share stats from the callouts are completely out of line with basketball-reference’s official stats. By just about every advanced statistical measure, Melo is a very good player. A better analysis would be production for dollar. Not perfect but at least it in some way begins to quantify the claims being made here.

Tom, I thought that you might like to see the additional comments that I made on my blog: You only named 10 and there are probably a couple of 100 more ” But guess what, it’s really not their fault because you have dumb management people who are willing to pay them. Another example is you have players nowadays that are playing 14,15,16 years and they are making so much money, that you’re going to have to burn the uniform off of them. Don’t misunderstand what I am saying, as I said before,as long as there is some dumb-ass willing to pay them, they’ll keep playing. For the future here’s my address: www.albianchi.net al@albianchi.net Al Bianchi

This is probably better received at a time when Carmelo is missing 60% of his shots rather than making them and helping the Knicks win 11 in a row. I’m not saying he isn’t overpaid (he probably is). But the idea that one of the top players in the league — and the main reason his team is a division leader — is the league’s most overpaid player doesn’t hold much water.

Advanced stats are a wonderful tool and like a hammer or a screwdriver should be used when you need to drive a nail or turn a screw. But neither should be used when you need to drill a hole.

You guys should stay away from sportanalysis.. I cant even say anything to this garbage. Carmelo ist probably the most valuable player for his team, he doesnt have any superstar on his side and still leads his team to the division title.

Ultimately, if your study yields you the conclusion that the unquestioned best player on a 50 win team is worse than Joe Johnson (comparable salaries), your study is the problem.

This is the stupidest shit I have ever seen in my life, it is obvious that who ever wrote this story up is absolutely bias and does not like Carmelo Anthony, so are you saying that Tyson Chandler is more valuable to the Knicks than Carmelo Anthony is? Its not only about the numbers its also about the tangibles, either way this article is completely bias and holds no weight and who ever wrote it shoul dbe fired from forbes

Wow this article is a little off. Carmelo might be a little over paid but he is a superstar. When you’re trying to get Carmelo from the Nuggets to help out your other overpaid superstar Amare, you have to do what you have to do. Especially since Amare’s contract was a little outrageous. Carmelo is a very clutch and consistent player that deserves all that money considering they are on an 11 game win streak and in the past 3 games, scoring over 130 points, also being the 2nd seed in the east. Also on the list is Dirk, which is very surprising to me because he is another elite superstar along with Carmelo. They are both the main leaders in their team that bring many intangibles to their team. Dirk and Melo separate themselves from the normal players so they deserve them bills.

This is why websites like Forbes shouldn’t be making a list on the NBA. Just to point out Joe Johnson is averaging 16ppg, 3 assists, and 3 rebounds this year and making more than Carmelo who happens to be averaging 28.3 ppg, 3 assists, and almost 7 rebounds. So if you think that a 16 ppg, 3 assist, and 3 rebound player is worth more than a 28.3 ppg, 3 assist, 7 rebound player (playing similar minutes may I add) than that is your absolutely terrible, horrible, and absurd opinion, then shall be it.

I’m not sure what kind of statistical model you’re using that doesn’t include Andris Biedrins who has been making $9M per season for the past few years and is averaging 0.5 ppg this year and shooting 30.8% from the FT line. Really, I can’t come up with another player that can possibly be more overpaid right now.

Then you put one of the best players and clutch shot makers in the league at the top… a constant mismatch nightmare for every team and the league. I’m hardly a Knicks fan, and I think this article is biased and worthless. Forbes should not attach its brand to such poor, headline grabbing analysis

Notice a trend? It favours players who don’t shoot much, and when they do, take only easy shots (dunks/open 3s). I mean, come on – is Prigioni really better than Tony Parker (as Wins Produced per 48 minutes suggests). You know who allows players like Kidd/Prigioni to be out there to provide their intangibles and efficient shot-making on limited shots? Players like Melo. When he heats up he demands a double team, it gives players like Kidd/Prigioni open looks and helps the Knicks generate some next-level offense. And how do you think Tyson Chandler, who has zero creativity on offense, shoots 64% from the field? You don’t think Melo has a little to do with that? Lol…you clearly don’t play basketball if you don’t realise Melo’s worth.

Yet Wins Produced punishes Melo for all for this…

Melo has a +/- of 224 this year…yet only has produced 1.4 wins? Lol that just doesn’t make sense. If only we had replaced him with Boris Diaw (who has produced 4.1 wins) Knicks would be pushing 60 wins this year!

I prefer the 82games.com “Simple Rating” method based on +/- and opponent stats – their rankings seems to match the eye-test much better than Wins Produced. http://www.82games.com/1213/1213NYK.HTM

I’m not sure what list you’re looking at, but the nbageek.com wins produced data we use has Durant, Wade and Parker way above those other players. Durant is second in the NBA behind LeBron, with Wade about #6 and Parker in the top 20. I do agree that part-time players like Prigioni tend to be overvalued because the model assumes they’d play at the same efficient level even if they played more minutes, which wouldn’t necessarily happen. But as for the key players – there’s a good reason for LeBron, Durant, Paul, Wade, etc. being valued well above Carmelo. They are far better players.

Basing your article on any one stat is always going to produce some questionable results. Even today, stats aren’t always a true indicator of performance, and without knowing the details, the Wins Produced stat you used seems to have fairly significant flaws. You mention LeBron, Durant, Paul, Wade, etc. rightfully being valued above Melo, but you didn’t address the comment about Diaw. With comparable minutes played, this list also has Randy Foye, Kyle Singler, Alonzo Gee, Luke Ridnour and others listed as “better players” than Carmelo.

In this case, there is a lot of difference between Carmelo’s position on this list, and his ranking (among rotation players – from http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2013_advanced.html) in PER (#6) Win Shares (#18), as well as the Simple Ranking Derwin mentioned above (#12). In all cases, the MVP candidates you mentioned are STILL above Carmelo (with the exception of Wade’s PER at #7).

Again, I don’t have an understanding of the mechanics of the stat, but based on the list, I would say that it overvalues offensive efficiency, assists, and defensive stats (spg/bpg).

Melo is the only scorer on his team (which you can’t say about your 4 examples, and reduces his efficency), he is a willing passer, but he rarely ends up with the assist (the ball either swings around to the weak side, or he gets it back), and although he’s not a great defender, his steals and block numbers don’t seem to do justice to the defence he does play.

Is it a coincidence this article was written a couple of days after the Knicks beat Miami; a team whose players you seem to very much praise? Did people at work make fun of you for your team losing? Its okay Tom, just relax and don’t write an article based on biased sports views next time.

Hey Tom, first of all you should look at this list here: http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2013_leaders.html (scroll down to Win Shares). You will find Anthony on 16th place close behind Parker, Chandler and Wade. It is a no-brainer that there’s something wrong with the list on nbageek.com (e.g. Duncan produces as many wins as Amir Johnson, Prigioni in front of Irving and Jennings, seriously???). And here part time players are not over-valued. That would be true for “wins produced per 48 minutes”. Concludingly, someone at nbageek.com has to get the math right. According to your conclusions not only LeBron, Durant, Paul and Wade are “far better players” than Melo but also players like Jimmy Butler (also in front of Kobe), Reggie Evans and Jared Dudley. C’mon!!! You can not really mean that. Assuming a correct list (again: basketball-reference.com), this model still has its weaknesses (one reason that not many people like/use it). It is hard to say how many of the wins produced by Chandler/Kidd/Prigioni are influenced by the fact that Anthony is on the court. So time to over think the list!

Correct me if I’m wrong, but I think that you’re confusing Win Shares with Wins Produced. They’re entirely different stats. That may be why thenbageek.com appears to disagree with basketball-reference.com

Absolutely laughable. You know how much money Melo has made the knicks in 2 seasons? This is funny. Ask Dolan if Melo is the most overpaid player in the league and see what he and his accountant say. We were a laughing stock 24 months ago. Now we sitting at the 2 seed as the only real threat to Miami in the east and the main cog is Melo. They let any idiot write an article. You are a clown. Stop writing about sports because you obviously rely on stats and metrics to write. Watch the games and tell me if Melo is overpaid. You are a fool. No seriously, you are a fool.

Well, I’m not confusing win Shares with Wins Produced and these stats are also not entirely different. Both models try to find out for how many wins a single player is responsible. I’m just saying that the wins produced model doesn’t get this right for many, many players. Wins produced is just not the proper model to reflect the value of a player.

im sorry did you just say that melo doesn’t live up to zach randolph? Melo has led the knicks to their first 50 win season in 13 years and most likely their first division title since 1993-94. Melo never has got it done in the playoffs due to the teams he has faced in the first round; Boston, Miami, Lakers, San Antonio, Minnesota when they were among the leagues best, Utah when they were loaded with D-Will and a younger Boozer. He never had a team that has been so good, so mature, and so energetic. Saying he is more overpaid than people like Corey Maggette, Ben Gordon, and Joe Johnson is absurd.

plus “over-paid” is someone like Joe Johnson who isn’t even a top 2 player on his team besides lopez and d-will…melo is the best player on his team and therefore earns the most money..being over-paid is an opinion, no formula can prove anything…this is why we watch sports..because it is unpredictable and we dont use mathematical formulas to determine the outcome and opinions of things..also having dirk on here….one of the greatest scorers ive ever seen is also just crazy talk….forbes…stick with determining team’s values.

I had to make an account on this website solely to make this comment. Carmelo Anthony isn’t the most overpaid player in the NBA. Another player on the list, Joe Johnson, is worse than Carmelo at virtually every aspect of the game. This isn’t an opinion, this is backed up by numbers, all of them actually. Well, except for your ‘wins produced’ statistic. We’ll start with shooting percentage, since it’s factored into wins produced. Anthony shoots .448 and .381 from three while attempting 22 shots per game, compared to Johnson’s .421 and .372 on 14.7 shots per game. Not only does Anthony shoot better, and score more points (28.4 to 16.3), he averages more rebounds(6.6 to 3.0) steals (0.8 to 0.6) and blocks (0.5 to 0.2) all while playing nearly identical minutes (37.2 to 37.1). The kicker of all of this is that Joe Johnson is paid MORE than Carmelo Anthony. Johnson is paid $19,752,645 compared to Melo’s $19,444,503. Johnson is three years older than Melo and has one more year left on his contract than Melo. I’m not quite sure how you overlooked Joe Johnson considering he’s in the article.

Most rediculous statement I have read in a long time. KD is a better player, but Carmelo is a top 10 player in the league. 6 time all-stars do not grow on trees. A quick look at some NBA rosters can tell you that. I would imagine there are many GMs that would beg to differ with this conclusion. I do not ever post comments, but this really blew my mind. I understand using basketball metrics, but you still actually have to watch the games and Melo has big time game.

It is so funny to me when I read articles authored by people that looked at NBA stats for the first time and thought they knew the game of basketball. The only problem with this guys research is that he had no idea of a max contract. Next article he will write will be one that says Dwight Howard is a better player than Kobe Bryant due to FG%. Nonetheless, here’s an interesting fact: In crutch time (defined by the last 24 seconds of a game including playoffs), Carmelo Anthony’s shot percentage actually improves!!! That’s right, so if its necessary to disagree with this author and pay Carmelo more than Chandler, you’d ought to.

Are you kidding me? Carmelo Anthony #1 overpaid player on your list? Did your bosses read this article before they publish your ridiculous articles? I thought Forbes was a respectible company until now.

Hope you get demoted for writing such a poor article. Do your research, ask any NBA analyst if they think Carmelo is the most overpaid NBA player, I am sure 9 out of 10 will disagree with this article. I think you should apologize to Carmelo Anthony and the Knicks fans for this poor judgement. If you job is to research and write an article, please make sure you do your due diligence and study the facts before writing poor articles. I think your supervisor who approved this article should also write an apology for this poor article that was full of BS. This is the first time I have ever commented on an article because it was so full of trash. Is this the first time you covered NBA? Sure looks like you have no experience when it comes to salaries, CBA contracts, and NBA.

Stick to business Forbes, clearly you don’t know much about sports. While I agree with some the athletes on the list like Turkoglu and Maggette, but seriously? Dirk and Carmelo are not overpaid. These are franchise players, they make the teams what they are. Without Dirk and Carmelo the Knicks and Mavs would be in a way worse position then they are right now. Why not mention guys like Stoudemire who is actually not a key piece for the Knicks and is also getting paid quite a lot. It seems like the writer of this article just Googled the salaries of NBA players and picked 10 people he didn’t like.

Actually not a bad list. Agree with most of them. However, Melo I cannot.

The guy has been, and will be a perennial all star well past this season, and will end up leading the league in scoring this season with respectable percentages and on a playoff team. He is not just a “scorer”, he is one of the best. Not to mention his marketability being born and playing in NY and being one of the most popular NBA players amongst fans since he entered the league. The guy is a huge draw for the Knicks and his presence affects tickets/merchandise sales, tv ratings, etc. Those are huge parts of NBA business, your so-called forte, that you did not account for. It is not just the stats he puts on the court that quantifies his value to NYK. Just because he makes more than Lebron and Durant does not make him overpaid by NBA standards, especially with the new CBA which restricts the max amount of money a player can be given nowadays.

Off the top of my head, more overpaid players than Melo: Eric Gordon- Averages 14 million a year Amare Stoudemire – 20 million a year and he is not anywhere close to Melo skills wise. Pau gasol – 19 million this year. The guy is playing better lately, but how did he not make the list???

Honestly you do yourself a dis service and only prove your incredebility by writing article with such bias. If you want to say Anthony shoots more shots then durant you also have to talk about how durant gets to the line much more with while both players attack the rim at an equal clip. Do some due diligence before writing junk like this