Storm Prediction Center
Day 1 and Day 2 Fire Weather Outlooks

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FNUS21 KWNS 130715
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2009
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR COASTAL SRN CA...PRIMARILY SANTA
BARBARA...VENTURA...AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SRN CO/NRN NM...
...SYNOPSIS...
A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE EWD INTO THE NRN/CNTRL
PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
LEAD TO VERY ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS...PRIMARILY
NEAR A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM THE WRN GREAT LAKES
SWWD TO A SURFACE LOW ROUGHLY OVER THE TX PANHANDLE.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...STRONG NWLY WINDS WILL AFFECT A LARGE
PORTION OF THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...ALTHOUGH GENERALLY WITH
MARGINAL RHS. HOWEVER...DRIER CONDITIONS WILL ALIGN WITH
STRONG/GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF CO/NM.
FARTHER W...CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER COASTAL SRN CA AS
UPPER RIDGING REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE...AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT OVER CALIFORNIA. NLY/DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL
LEAD TO WARMING/DRYING IN COMBINATION WITH GUSTY WINDS.
TO THE E...NWLY WINDS ALOFT AND NELY/NLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL
BRING DRY CONTINENTAL AIR TO MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH RHS MAY
APPROACH CRITICAL VALUES...WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIGHT.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - SRN CO/NRN NM...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG/GUSTY WINDS...LOW RH
A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SWD THEN BEGIN TO STALL NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. A RELATIVELY TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...PRIMARILY IN THE
MID AFTERNOON. RHS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS...WITH SINGLE DIGITS
POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN NM. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY
COULD LEAD TO ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR IF FIRE STARTS CAN OCCUR.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - COASTAL SRN CA...PRIMARILY SANTA
BARBARA...VENTURA...AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG/GUSTY WINDS...LOW RH...WARM/HOT
TEMPERATURES...MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT
06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS REFLECTS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER CA AS LOW
PRESSURE HAS DEEPENED OVER THE DESERTS OF SERN CA/SWRN AZ/SRN
NV...AND HIGH PRESSURE HAS STRENGTHENED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
WV IMAGERY IS INDICATIVE OF UPPER RIDGING JUST OFFSHORE...WITH
NLY/NWLY WINDS PREDOMINANT OVER THE COASTAL AREAS OF SRN CA. 1115 PM
PDT MONTECITO OBSERVATION SHOWS INCREASING NNWLY WINDS SUSTAINED AT
25 MPH AND GUSTING TO 42 MPH...WHILE THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS BEEN
DECREASING...MEASURED AT 23 PERCENT AS OF 1115 PM PDT. EXPECT
CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS
STRONG/GUSTY DOWNSLOPE WINDS CONTINUE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
IN THE EVENING IN CONJUNCTION WITH WARM/HOT TEMPERATURES AND RHS IN
THE TEENS...WITH LOCALIZED SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST
WINDS OF THE WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
..HURLBUT.. 05/13/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

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FNUS22 KWNS 130844
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2009
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NRN AZ/NM...SRN UT...SRN/ERN CO...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR COASTAL SRN CA...PRIMARILY SANTA
BARBARA...VENTURA...AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL SLOWLY
MOVE SEWD THROUGH D1...THEN CONTINUE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY
D2. UPPER TROUGHING WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH A TROUGH SUBSEQUENTLY FORMING IN THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALSO QUICKLY PUSH A COLD FRONT SWD AND EWD
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST. BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING THE FRONT
WILL EXTEND FROM A SURFACE LOW ROUGHLY LOCATED IN SERN MT...SWWD
THROUGH WY...WWD THROUGH CNTRL UT AND NV. STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL ALIGN WITH LOW RHS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN NRN AZ/NM...SRN
UT/CO...AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEE TROUGH IN ERN CO.
FARTHER WEST...CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING IN COASTAL
SRN CA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS STRONG/GUSTY NLY/DOWNSLOPE
WINDS CONTRIBUTE TO WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW RHS. THESE CONDITIONS
COULD CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES ACROSS CA AGAIN...AND UPPER HIGH PRESSURE REDEVELOPS JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE COAST.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - NRN AZ/NM...SRN UT...SRN/ERN CO...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG/GUSTY WINDS...LOW RH
STRONG/GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN MUCH OF NRN
AZ/NM...SRN UT...AND SWRN/S CNTRL CO...AND IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING
LEE TROUGHING IN ERN CO. FOR PRE-FRONTAL AREAS...STRONG SUSTAINED
WLY WINDS NEAR 20 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL ALIGN WITH RHS IN
THE LOWER TEENS...AND ISOLD SINGLE DIGITS. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES/INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR SHOULD STARTS
OCCUR. IN ERN CO...SLY WINDS NEAR 25 TO 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
WILL BE COMMON...WHILE RHS WILL PRIMARILY FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS.
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA - COASTAL SRN CA...PRIMARILY SANTA
BARBARA...VENTURA...AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES...
PRIMARY CONDITIONS: STRONG/GUSTY WINDS...LOW RH...WARM/HOT
TEMPERATURES...ANTECEDENT DRYNESS
NLY/DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. CURRENT MODELS INDICATE NLY/DOWNSLOPE 850 MB FLOW COULD BE
QUITE STRONG AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...LEADING TO STRONG/GUSTY
WINDS ALIGNING WITH WARM/HOT TEMPERATURES AND LOW RHS. UPPER RIDGING
WILL REBUILD OFF THE WEST COAST AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND PROGRESSES EWD...AND NLY WINDS WILL LIKELY
RESTRENGTHEN BY EVENING AS THIS OCCURS. OVERNIGHT...LOW LEVEL FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO VEER TO A MORE NELY DIRECTION...WHICH COULD TEMPER
THE THREAT SOMEWHAT.
..HURLBUT.. 05/13/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...