2013 Draft Tracker

So I’ll post this graphic here with whatever info I can compile from the various media reports. I’ll try to scan through the comments here for that kind of info, so if you see I’m missing something, just make mention of it in a new comment at the bottom of the page, and please post any media links if you have them, so I can save them on my end.

The height and weight info and other stuff came from MLB last year, and I’ll just plug that in when it’s up on that site. Until then, just assume they’re all 6’3″, 210lbs, and chiselled out of granite. Click on the graphic to enlarge and you can zoom in with your browser and whatnot from there. I have also added this to the “2013 Draft” from the “Draft” Menu at the top, so even if it’s not stuck on the top of the site, you can find it there.

Updated 6-10-13, 3pm with a bunch of news items/tweets, and bonus money for Martarano, which is to be split between a signing and a reporting bonus somehow. In case, I guess, he never comes to Phillies camp and just keeps playing football, they keep the second $50k.

Updated 6-11-13, 12:30pm – a couple more signings reported by media and on Twitter. I got the height, weight, etc., as well, and added a dummy signing date of today for all the guys we know have signed. Until MLB gets us the real dates, we’ll just have to live with that. Hopefully we start to see some more bonus info shortly for those high picks, at least, and for a guy like Meadors who could theoretically look for more than $100k to sign.

Updated 6-12-13, 10:00am – Added Trey Williams signing.

Updated 6-13-13m 5:15pm – Added the Shane Martin bonus and savings, (which covers about 75% of the overslot on Sandberg), and the signing of UDel’s Nick Ferdinand.

Updated 6-14-2013 9:05pm – Added signing dates for all the guys the Phillies MLB site now includes. Added the bonuses for Knapp, Sweaney and Parr, updated the calculations, and highlighted the signed picks in green.

Updated 6-17-2013 12:45pm – Added JP Crawford and Jan Hernandez as signed. Crawford tweeted about it and Hernandez had an article in Puerto Rico indicate he has signed. Your turn, Jason Monda. Maybe.

Updated 6-18-2013 4:00pm – Added JP Crawford’s signing date of today, added bonuses for Williams and Prosinski and updated the calculations. BTW, I changed Ben Wetzler to Ben Wetzler-Holmes – the Phillies site on MLB lists him as Holmes, I’ve seen it hyphenated like I have it, so that’s how I’ll leave it.

Updated 6-20-2013 3:00pm – Added the slot for Crawford and Hernandez (newly reported by BA’s Jim Callis), a couple notes, and a new calculation to back out the slot amount for Jason Monda, plus that ugly dark tan/gross brown highlight to indicate he won’t sign. That’s what I think of that decision. It’s “ugly dark tan”.

Updated 7-3-2013 4:30pm – Tyler Viza signed per BA and Phillies.

Updated 7-4-2013 10:15am – Dan Child signed, per the player’s tweet. No bonus info available for Child or Viza at this point.

Updated 7-9-2013 5:30pm – Dan Child’s bonus at $100k and Tyler Viza’s at $160k, both per BA. Lowers the pool amount. Deadline looms Friday. I still have Martarano’s bonus on there, though no signing date, based on what we read earlier. Have to wonder if there’s still uncertainty there as neither the Phils nor BA has him as signed.

Updates 7-13-2013 10am – Added Keys and the bonus and the tax info, added Wetzler not signing. Unhighlighted Martarano, though I’m not sure that didn’t still happen. Added Venn Biter as signed with no known bonus info. So I guess there will be at least one more update to this graphic.

without cutting and pasting he basically says the Phillies had the best first 5 picks of any NL team (in his opinion). We took our usual toolsy athletes but ones that actually have baseball skills unlike the Hewitt’s of the world. wasn’t as high as the rest of the top ten, but really loved the first 5 picks

‘The Phillies had my favorite top five picks of any draft class in the NL, taking four prep bats who fit their usual philosophy of betting on athleticism but all of whom also have some present skills… J.P. Crawford (16) was the draft’s best shortstop… with the hand speed and general approach to make you think he can develop into a solid-average hitter in five years, with above average defense at SS…’

The 1st 5 Phillies picks were rated higher pre-draft, by Keith Law than by BA. Jan Hernandez (#72) was rated significantly higher by Law, than by BA. Law also rated Knapp and Sweaney, each, about 20 spots higher than BA. All 5 players were rated in Keith Law’s top 100.

Don’t like that he’s not going to play this summer His development as long as he plays football as Boise State is going to be more limited than other players. He won’t be able to take part in minor league camp for spring training and won’t likely arrive until late into extended spring training. He won’t complete a minor league season and won’t be there for Fall Instructional League either.

I do not like it either, but if he turns out to like baseball and dislike football the Phillies may have gotten an legitimate prospect for 100K.
He is definitely not going to progress as ‘normal’ and an injury will be an huge impact but the idea is to acquire talent and the Phillies were the ones willing to pull the trigger with him. Gotta like the challenge for all parties involved.

Do the Phil’s pay for his school as well as give him 100,000? Or just give him 100000, and he has to give up his scholarship? If its the latter, that’s a pretty raw deal for him, as that will barely cover tuition for 5 years at Boise. If its the former, what’s to prevent him from basically devoting all his time and attention to football with the exception of showing up to camp two months in the summer (I.e. blowing off baseball except what he has to do to keep the 100000?)

I don’t he’ll have a moment to think about baseball until winter break, at the earliest. My daughter’s boyfriend is a full scholarship college football player and he’s graduating HS today and, within a week and a half, he’ll start intensive freshmman football preparations at his college, which will continue through summer camp and then the start of football season. He’ll essenitally get no break from football until playoff games are over (he’s at a division I-AA school). My understanding is that, next year, football really won’t start for him until the beginning of August.

So, if I undersand this correctly, this guy will basically have from the time his classes end (probably early to mid May), until the beginning of August, to play baseball. So, what you are looking at is a month or so of extended ST with another month or so of short season ball. All the while, he’ll have to convince his college coaches that, yes, football really means everything in the world to him.

More than anything, this is about getting a toe hold on this guy in case it turns out that he changes his mind about football or he becomes so damned good at baseball that it becomes his best option moving forward.

Not saying it isn’t worth the risk and I’m stating the obvious but I have a very low level of expectation. Pretty clear Boise State Football is a big thing to him. But maybe something happens (I hate to wish anything negative and I’m not going to which is why I have low expectations).

really solid value on many of the picks….LOVE that there are some legit middle infielders, LOVE they lured Cord out of the SEC, LOVE they got some college OF’ers (Monda and Parr), I have ZERO problem with them drafting Knapp and Sweaney (Catchers and scarcity…can’t have enough)….and there are a buttload of live arms up and down the Phils board. Strong work by Woelver and Co.!!!!

There are definitely some interesting picks – Crawford could be a good one. Jan Hernandez who you didn’t mention was probably my favorite pick. Sandberg could work out , he seems like a big boom or bust pick. I particularly also like Sweaney. I hope Denton Keys can translate from small town high school eventually, he seems like he might have a determined mentality.

I don’t know if there are a buttload of live arms yet whatever that means, there are always a bunch of pitchers and players. There are a buttload of college arms (only a few high school pitchers). Really aren’t a lot of scouting reports on some of these pitchers and I don’t know if one of them projects high in the rotation. But I have no problem with their approach to this draft.

I don’t know that Dulin is likely to sign being a 36th round pick and having a committment to Ole Miss although the kid is ALL BASEBALL so you never know but my favorite off the wall pick is Dalton Dulin. Even if he never works out because he’s 5-8, he’s just worth it to follow in the minors if he never makes it because he’s obsessed by baseball and being a Pro and he has some it factor maybe. Kid’s’ a compact little speedball and has a pretty nice swing on both sides of the plate.

Be interesting to see if they reel in Encarnacion in the int’l signing period.

Monda is kind of a “meh” pick to me, and the first such reaction I had in the Phillies draft. As noted elsewhere, it’s not clear whether he will sign. Parr was clearly a budget pick to save some bonus pool dollars.

Coach believes he’s eager to sign and coach believes he will makes just over $1m. Macho is right, that’s probably slot for him. We’ll see how it shakes out. If he’s really eager to sign, and the money is right, I imagine we’ll have something more official on him shortly.

Low line drive hitter is his best asset from what I have read and the little bit I saw. He needs to stay focused and become more consistent at it. Doubles hitter, probably hit some out but you don’t want that from him anyway. Knapp is a potential solid player. He has pretty nice athleticism and solid running on basepaths for a catcher, solidly built kid. Not saying he’s speedy.

How much money are you willing to spend? I’m talking about the club of course. The Phils won’t be willing to lose next year’s #1. That would be crazy because they could end up with a #16 or less. So that would mean they can go up to 5% over the the bonus pool. If the 1st 10 draft picks are signed that would mean $6,347,000 plus a $226,700 tax for a total of $6,573,700 or so. If the Phils were willing to go up to that amount, and there is nothing in their DNA that says they would even consider it, who would get extra money? Who, and that can be plural, would you spend the money on? You can spend up to $100,000 on each player taken after the 10th round. It would be nice to save some money in the 1st 10 slots but let’s assume they spend exactly their alottment. You can spend $402K on one player ($100K plus 302K) or $250K for two. Who do you want that you think will take a little extra to get them into camp? There’s a lot of variables in there but I’m sure some guys have an idea who they want and who they can get.

They’re going to save money on at least the 9-10 picks, and probably 8 as well. They’re all college seniors with no other pro options, and will likely all sign for a bargain compared to slot. Justin Parr was BA’s 408th ranked player, so he may command the most, but pick 408 was the 3rd pick in the 14th round, so figure even with some liberal wiggle room, he’s probably no better than a 11th rounder and so would be outside of the slots and into the up-to-$100k area. So that’s $50k+ and the other two guys could be real low dollar amounts and each save the team over $100k. That easily covers Sandberg, and if you can squeeze Jason Monda a little, you might add to that overage and have a coupld hundred thousand before even considering the tax, (though any one of the top 7 guys could theoretically balk at slot and demand more).

So, your question stands, with my alteration to the amounts – who among their low round picks might be worth going after/willing to sign for the allotted $100k plus another $200k? What if you add the tax amount for a total of about $600k? Those who follow prep more than I do should have a better idea.

I think i mentioned in one of the draft threads who i would try to make a run at in the later rounds. Obviously it starts with the 11th and 12th rounders Keys and Jax. If those two sign, maybe u have a chance at our 38th rounder Casas who plays with them. After those three, i think the next targets are the three Junior College guys Meadors, southard and Morris. MacEachern is a long shot, but with ties to Hewitt, who knows. The rest of the really late HS kids are probably just the usual late round draft to show interest for later types.

I guess the real issue now for these HS players is if they want to play Pro ball right away?

Option 1: Phillies can offer $100K right now and let the kids decide if they want to get started. I assume that would also include scholarship money (that is not part of the bonus) so the kids will not lose out on their education for giving baseball a shot.

Option 2: They can wait until July 14 to see if Phillies have added funds and offer them. The players could either give a target number, see what they get offerred (if it is over $100K), or see if Phillies just decided they do not want them at any cost.
Decision points should be: a) do they have a full ride scholarship? b) how ‘good’ do they think they will be in 3 years.
Since after the first 200 picks they are only looking to get about $200K anyway. Unless they are one of the Top200 or so now I wonder what their projection / risk threshold is.

Option 3: Go to school for the experience and potential to be a Top50 pick and earn millions.

I really think at $200K offer would be seriously considered by a any draftee preferring to get a pro career going.

Assuming Musgrave is off the board and obviously Biggio is , I don’t know any of the other high schoolers and there are only a few so I’ll throw out Dulin’s name. Dulin is definitely interesting if he’s not completely committed to going to Ole Miss and he’s obsessed with baseball and has some talent and charisma. He’s only 5-8 though (comparisons to Pedroia but I saw an interview of his coach who said that – the coach had met Pedroia ). I wouldn’t go nuts to get him necessarily.

Martorano has gotten a lot of mention but I don’t know what I’d do there. He won’t be playing in the organization this summer and he said something like I’ll have to discuss things with coach (boise state football coach) to see if there’s a couple weeks after his freshman season (next summer) to go to the minors. I’m not at all optimistic about the kid after reading his comments and if he’s actually in the Boise State lineup year 1/2 , I think it’s a waste of time but other people will disagree because he was so highly rated talent-wise. Some people want to pay him and just wait to see what develops.

For those interested I think Ben Wetzler is probably pitching for OSU tonight at 10 pm (espn2 BUT check listings wherever you are if you’re watching on TV) vs KSU in the deciding game to get to the college world series. I haven’t found any official thing anywhere he is starting but Matt Boyd and Andrew Moore were starters game 1 and 2.

I saw an article in the OSU area press saying he’s starting today. I’m with you on the coverage. It’s not clear to me it will be on TV, but ESPN2 seems like the best bet. They’ve got the afternoon game today.

I do not know if anyone noticed that all 5 of the Phillies 2013 top 5 picks were named in the top 120 of the top players available lists by the 5 most recognized scouting services. The 5 scouting services are Baseball America (BA), ESPN-Keith Law (Law), MLB-Jon Mayo (MLB), Fox Sport’s Scout.com (Scout), and Kevin Goldstein Baseball Prospectus (BP). Also, there is a consensus (Con) list of these 5 sources. In addition a 6th player drafted by the Phillies (Cavan Biggio) was in the top 100 of all 5 lists and finished at a consensus 63rd position.

I guess it shouldn’t be, but it is surprising. I know that every team has it’s own rankings but it’s been frustrating in the past when the Phillies would almost always pass on taking the most heralded prospects.

It is praise worthy because 4 of the 5 players are prep players. With the new draft pool rules many teams haven’t figured out the process enough, to draft that many highly rated prep prospects and still have a great chance to sign them.

I think it’s noteworthy because a good number of the top 150 prospects are Prep players that will skip the signing bonus and head to school (like Biggio’s kid). So I would guess that if we could sign 5 out of the top 150 that we’d be doing better than average – which is a fair sight better than we’ve done in previous drafts! This new system really gives the Phillies an edge.

The site that did the consensus only used these 5 sources. The consensus is not an average of the 5 sources. The consensus was reached by adding the ranking #s from each of the 5 sources into a total score for each player then re-ranking all the players from lowest to highest based on total ranking score. Players who did not have a score from a ranking service were given a score of 1 greater than the # of players ranked from that service. For example MLB only ranked 100 players so all unranked players by MLB received a score of 101 to use towards their total score. For example, Knapp received a total score of 323 (71+56+65+69+62) while Sandberg received a total score of 301 (40+53+56+73+79). On the re-ranking of all the players Sandberg’s 301 was 60th among all the players while Knapp finished 61st with a score of 323.

I am sure almost everyone who gets on this site has seen the following. But for those who have not the following is from the free MLB coverage of the draft.

PK PLAYER SCHOOL POS B/T CLASS PLAYER INFO

16 Crawford, J.P. Lakewood HS (CA) SS L/R HS 6′ 2″ 180 lbs 1/11/95
This Southern California product and Oscar Mercado are the top high school middle infielders in the country in this class. Well-known on the showcase circuit, Crawford has a plus arm and easy, flowing motions defensively. While he grades out as an average runner, he is a threat on the bases. Crawford has a loose, wristy stroke and can hit the ball to all fields. He has average raw power and could grow into more as he matures. Crawford’s stock slipped a bit this spring as some scouts questioned his hitting tools. How high he goes in the Draft may depend on how much teams feel his bat will come, though it’s fairly certain someone will take the chance in helping him develop given his outstanding defensive skills up the middle.

53 Knapp, Andrew California C S/R JR 6′ 1″ 192 lbs 11/9/91
It is not a good class for college catching, so one who performs well is bound to move up Draft boards. The switch-hitting Knapp has had to wait his time to get behind the plate, playing first and the outfield for his first two years at Cal. He has a lot of work to do defensively behind the plate, though he does have a solid arm. He is showing, as he has with some very strong summer ball performances, that he can hit. Knapp has the chance to hit for average and power. The team that feels his defense will improve with more time behind the plate and some patience, will likely take him early in the hopes he can be a solid offensive-minded backstop.

89 Sandberg, Cord Manatee HS (FL) CF L/L HS 6′ 3″ 215 lbs 1/2/95
A two-sport star from the Florida high school ranks, Sandberg has the chance to quarterback at Mississippi State should he choose to go that route. He also has the chance to be a very good, toolsy outfielder at the professional level. A line-drive gap hitter now, Sandberg projects to have above-average power from the left side of the plate in the future. He runs well and should be a good defensive outfielder. With a big, athletic frame, he reminds some of Josh Hamilton in terms of his body type. Sandberg will get the chance to show how close he can get to being a similar player if he chooses the diamond over the gridiron.

96 Hernandez, Jan Carlos Beltran Baseball Acdy SS R/R HS 6′ 1″ 194 lbs 1/3/95
A year ago, Carlos Correa represented Puerto Rico well as the No. 1 overall pick in the Draft. Hernandez, another shortstop, will not go that early, but he has the chance to do his home island proud. Hernandez is already strong and well-built, and he may well add some strength as he matures. He has good bat speed and should have good power in the future. He has good hands and a strong arm, but some think his range might necessitate a move to third in the future. With Hernandez’s offensive potential and his confidence on the field, he might profile well at the hot corner down the road.

121 Sweaney, Jake Garces Memorial HS (CA) C R/R HS 6′ 3″ 180 lbs 11/17/94
A talented two-sport athlete, Sweaney scored 14 touchdowns and snagged six interceptions as a wide receiver/defensive back last fall. Sweaney did not spend much time doing showcases last summer because he also played football, but garnered plenty of attention this spring. He is still learning behind the plate, but between his athleticism and strong arm, he has the tools to become a solid defender. Sweaney has a compact swing and a chance to develop more power as he begins to focus on baseball and fills out his 6-foot-3, 180-pound frame. He is committed to Oregon.

151 Wetzler-Holmes, Ben Oregon State LHP L/L JR 6′ 1″ 210 lbs 9/12/91
Wetzler has been a mainstay of Oregon State’s rotation for three years and has put together a consistent track record of success in the Pac-12. He succeeds without dominating stuff, but earns high marks for his command and pitchability. Wetzler’s fastball sits around 90 mph with good movement. He also throws a slider and a changeup. He is not afraid to attack hitters and shows good poise on the mound. Wetzler missed a few weeks early this season with a back strain and it took him a while to build his strength back, but he has looked healthy over the last two months.

181 Monda, Jason Washington State OF L/L JR 6′ 4″ 205 lbs 8/22/91
Monda is a projectable college outfielder who hits for average and should add power down the line. Monda, out of Washington State, has shown that he can handle center but might have to move to a corner as he fills out, a place where his glove could be plus. He has average speed on the basepaths but possesses great instincts that allow his speed to play up. If Monda can add power, then he could become a solid everyday player in the Majors.

211 Williams, Trey College of the Canyons (CA) 3B R/R J1 6′ 1″ 210 lbs 3/9/94
A solid high school prospect a year ago, Williams was taken in the 11th round of the 2012 Draft by the Cardinals, but did not sign. Instead of heading to Pepperdine, where he committed, he went to Junior College of the Canyons, right in his backyard. The son of former big leaguer Eddie Williams, Trey is big and strong, he has shown a solid approach at the plate, one that should allow him hit for some average and plenty of power. He has a very strong arm and good enough hands to stay at the hot corner. His baseball instincts, like is often the case with the sons of former players, have been honed very well.

391 Martarano, Joey Fruitland HS (ID) 3B R/R HS 6′ 4″ 235 lbs 7/28/94
Martarano was a two-sport star at Fruitland High School (Idaho) and is committed to Boise State to play linebacker. Reportedly, he recently told coach Chris Petersen he intends to play football for the Broncos. Boise State does not have a baseball team, however, so a team may be able to work out a deal that allows Martarano, a third baseman, to play college football and professional baseball. Listed at 6-foot-4, 230 pounds, he is powerfully built and has plus raw power. Martarano is surprisingly polished for a two-sport athlete from a small, rural town. He likely will move to the outfield or first base as a professional.

541 Child, Daniel Oregon State RHP R/R JR 6′ 5″ 225 lbs 7/24/92
Coming off a stint with the college national team last summer, Child entered his junior season as a highly regarded college pitcher. But Child, a right-hander, was shaky at the start of the season and lost his spot in Oregon State’s weekend rotation. Still, he presents an intriguing package to scouts. At 6-foot-5, 225 pounds, Child has a power-pitcher’s frame and mentality. He throws in the low-to-mid-90s with a hard slider and a changeup he rarely uses. Child may fit better in the bullpen, where he could ditch the changeup and likely develop into a late-inning power reliever.

871 Biggio, Cavan St. Thomas HS (TX) 2B L/R HS 6′ 2″ 185 lbs 4/11/95
That is right, the last name means what you think: This is Craig’s kid. And he was even coached by the future Hall of Famer. Biggio had a very solid summer with the bat, showing an ability to hit the ball hard consistently against good competition. He has a little power and some feel he’ll grow into some more. The biggest question is where he profiles defensively. He might fit well as a second baseman, where his left-handed bat would be of value. Will he have enough power to play a corner position? Is he fast enough to play center field? Those questions need to be answered, but his hitting ability, his instincts and, of course, his bloodlines, should get him plenty of attention in the spring.

Does it say if they went over slot on knapp ?? Still trying to figure out what they can spend, without losing a draft choice. with the new agreement. Say they sign there 14 th
choice for 400 thousand and its over the 6,225 million, what would happen, I just still dont get it,

Right. You can only allocate elsewhere if he SIGNS and its below the allocation for that slot. If he doesn’t sign you lose Monda and you can’t use the allocation amount elsewhere. But I’m not willing to go overslot on Monda. You *could* take the money and do some more flat 100k deals after the 10th though.

If they had picked guys who might sign for that, sure. They could overspend by the same amount, as well, on someone in 11-40. Since it’s lost slot the tax hurts less because they had the money available in the budget.

Example 1:
Total Team Cap – $1,500,000
Number 1 Pick – Slot Amount: $1,000,000
Number 2 Pick – Slot Amount: $500,000
Number 1 Pick – Signing amount: $500,000
The team now has 1 million dollars they can spend on pick 2. If they want(Pick 2 slot+Leftover Pick 1 money)

Example 2:
Total Team Cap – $1,500,000
Number 1 Pick – Slot Amount: $1,000,000
Number 2 Pick – Slot Amount: $500,000
Number 1 Pick – Does not sign
The team now only have 500,000 they can spend on Pick 2.

Your “Cap money” is only there IF YOU SIGN THE PICK THAT CAP MONEY WAS ASSIGNED TO. Any money you save on that pick, is able to spent elsewhere. But, you HAVE to sign the pick to get the money. Stupid, stupid, stupid system.

But if you knew of a guy you had picked in the later rounds who suddenly loses his college commit for whatever reason, you could choose not to sign the earlier pick and use the money on the later round guy. That’s protection for the player drafted who has already stated he is willing to sign. Otherwise, if say Cavan Biggio, tomorrow, finds out Notre Dame is cutting its baseball program, and wanted to sign, the Phillies could decide not to sign Jan Hernandez and give Biggio his money. Now Hernandez is left with no college committment and no option to sign with another team. No good.

We may be in a little bit of a “alternate reality” rule issue here. Not sure if Joe was advocating you can use that money for anyone or just top 10. If it were just top 10, then you’re right, the Biggio example is a bad one. If Joe’s wanting to use it anywhere in the whole draft, (I think he is), then my example stands, I believe.

Brad, All picks after 10 have a cap of 100,000. BUT, that 100,000 cap doesn’t add to your bonus cap. The only way you can spend more than 100,000 dollars on a pick after 10 is to save that money somewhere in the top 10 picks.

No. I think the fact that to get ANY of that money assigned to your cap you HAVE to sign the pick. You should have a cap of some sort(if they insist on a cap) and teams should be able to give that money out in anyway they want.

Got it. I don’t disagree with that in theory. I would be all for getting rid of the ability of the players to opt in our out after they’re picked without some kind of repercussion. Maybe they declare and go where they’re picked or be forced to wait for 2 years of JuCo or 4 years of 4-year college. But if they don’t declare, then they can come back after 1 year of JuCo or indy ball or backpacking through The Andes, for all I care, or after 3 years of 4 year college ball, as is currently the standard.

Theoretically, if Monda doesn’t sign, it was a mistake to draft him, but the actual impact is minimal to the overall pool allotment.
Without Monda, the Phillies overall pool allotment will reduce from 6.045mil to 5.81mil. That effects the amount they can go over, without reaching the 5% threshold, for draft pick penalties.
If the Phillies sign all picks in the 1st 10 rounds, for, the entire 6.045M, they can give 302K for over slot bonuses to the 11-40 picks. Without Monda, the total of 5.81m pool would yield a total of 290K (5.81M x 4.999%).

So in the grand scheme of things, the Phillies lose only 12K, in pool allotment wiggle room. This, plus whatever they could have saved by drafting a player who would’ve signed under slot in the 6th round. If Monda wants more than slot, it’s to the Phillies benefit to NOT sign him, unless they really think he is a great talent.

Not really a comment on budget strategy; a comment on a guy with a 44/5 k/bb ratio as a Junior in college. For reference, Cameron Perkins, free swinger that he is, had a 20/13 ratio his junior year (and count me as a skeptic of his chances).

Call me premature, but this guy wouldn’t have a chance against pro pitching. That being said, I’m sure he fills out a uniform nicely, and no doubt has that “high butt” pro scouts look for (#sarcasm).

Were he a higher round pick, I think they could offer him slot, get turned down, and recoup a similar pick in 2014. But that low, I think it’s just lost, right? I think that protection stops at the end of round 3. Anyone?

Losing Monda isn’t going to break my heart, nor would the $12k, but as has been said, it would be pretty dumb to pick someone in that spot who you didn’t know you could sign. Of course, kids will be kids etc., and we haven’t heard it from him that he won’t sign. Just from his teammate that they’re collectively considering it.

If he’s willing to give up his senior year of baseball, we could sign him to a contract for a buck and then immediately give him his unconditional release to return to school (with a little scholarship money to boot).

I’d remind Monda of the “Moonlight” Graham story and tell him there really isn’t a field of dreams. But really folks, I don’t begrudge a guy for wanting to be a doctor. I rate a doctor far higher than a baseball player in the scheme of things. I just wish some other team had the issue and not my beloved Phils.

I know this much — if I could get a substantial amount of money to play baseball for a couple of years (and this may be the most he will be able to get as next year he will not have that much leverage as a senior) and see where things go and if it did not work out, use whatever is remaining toward med school tuition and therefore have less loan debt, I would sign up for that game plan.

No, they’ve lost the $236K which could be in the pocket of another signed player. In other words, we could have drafted someone who was worth $236K and who would have signed. It is a tactical draft error. You don’t get a next year makeup for a 6th rounder, your draft pool just becomes that much smaller and you are one prospect lighter on the draft. Under the new system, for rounds 4-10, you really gotta sign them.

Agreed. If you have the money to spend (your total draft pool) you need to get the most you can for it. Obviously would have been better (if Monda does not sign) just to get a cheap college senior who will sign severely underslot to offer more to the later HS guys.

Boise ST still have to meet NCAA requirements for total max scholarships…80 or 85, not sure what it is these days, But Martarano, I assume, does not count against it, so essentially he is a preferred ‘walk-on’ with tuition paid.

The Scholarship will count towards the 85 overall and 25 per class limits. Any recruited scholarship athlete counts for football. Other sports are different were. Boise State loses the 1 scholly, but they save the money on having to pay for it..

I thought the new rules was you could be a pro in one sports, without hurting your amuteur staus in another. didnt riley cooper play in texas minor league system, for two years, while stay at florida to playe football.

Ah sorry, I misinterpreted why MLB was highlighting that Bosie State had no Baseball team in Martarano’s profile. I guess they where just pointing out there was no danger of him becoming a 2 sport collegiate player.

Matt did that last night. I agree in general with his assessments. As for ranking the picks, I would use what BA says, which is always on the spreadsheet above, but the other rankers don’t always agree.

Good deal. I didn’t think that was a sure thing. A 2nd round, 3B talent, in 2012, taken in the 7th round, in 2013.
Just think about it. Trey Williams was a much higher rated talent than his HS classmate, Zach Green. Even with the fall, he is still higher rated this year, than Zach Green was last year.
JC coach says he wasn’t pitched to this year.

RHP-Whitehead in the 34th Rnd could prove to be a “steal” for the Phillies ’13 Draft. Big strong kid, but recently had TJ. If all goes well, expected to improve on 2012 Cape Cod performance levels. In the Cape showed FB 93-95 topped at 96 with plus “Late Life” on 2-seam, Plus CB and Hard bite on Slider, developing CH that was added plus pitch in his later starts. Not a big Strike out guy, but a ground ball machine. 2012 Cape 41.2 IP 2.81 ERA 28 K 8 BB .260 BAA 0 HR 1.25 WHIP 2013 Elon stats are misleading due to injury showing after 3rd/4th start…Was projected to be a 3-5 Rnd pick…Only time will tell

When did he have TJ surgery?
I like these kind of upside picks. The lack of K’s with a 93+ FB with late life is certainly an issue against Cape guys is a concern. We will see how his velocity and movement are affected post TJ.

This from JP Crawford on Twitter – “Half the people I talk to everyday will be gone from my life tomorrow” And then he made an emoticon that looked like, I don’t know, melancholy? Anyway, I am guessing he is leaving for CLR tomorrow.

Some of them have tweeted about it being “official”. I assume that’s indicating they have put pen to paper. But the team may be planning to announce the first wave all at once when they’re all done so they can say “signed 21 of their 41 picks” or something like that. But yeah, I’m trying fairly unsuccessfully to be patient.

Agree with this. I don’t think they give physicals to all of them just the ones over a certain amount of money. The Williamsport season starts on Monday 6/17. At some point they will need to declare a roster, so we’ll know those guys.

I would expect every single player who signs a contract to get a physical. The larger dollar guys will get a more involved physical though. This is pretty basic stuff nowadays. Every player gets a physical before spring training starts each year.

I know that the Williamsport website has been tinkering with the roster webpage over the last couple of days, adding/removing players. I guess, like everyone else, my growing impatience for the official announcement is not setting a good example for my child.

@JoeDE,
The 8th pick is about 155K.
The 9th pick is about 144K.
The 10th pick is about 135K.
All 3 picks were seniors. Assuming all three get 5K bonuses (doubtful). The Phillies would have 420K savings from the 3 players. Minus Cord Sandberg’s 180K overage, that leaves 240K to play with.

That’s quite possible. And I don’t assume anything abour Parr. He was a top 500 guy, (per BA), so he can probably expect a little more than $5k. They gave Josh Ludy $10k last year and he wasn’t ranked by BA, (nor anyone else, if I recall correctly).

Josh Ludy received 15K last year. He was the Big 12 player of the year last year. Ludy said he was surprised he got that much.
Justin Parr is the Big 10 player of the year, this year. He may be able to command 20K.

BA has a story up for subscribers contrasting Louis Encarncion and Rafael Devers. Two of the biggest potential Dominican signees, this year. Says that the Phillies are enamored of Encarnacion. He is 15 years old, and 6’2, 185lbs. He won’t be able to sign before August 9th.

The Phillies are repelled by the price tag of Rafael Devers. A price tag that is completely deserved as he is a clone of Robinson Cano, who the Phillies are going to pretend does not exist this winter.

The Phillies and second-rounder Andrew Knapp have agreed to terms on a $1,033,100, matching the assigned value for his No. 53 slot. He’s expected to finalize his contract on Monday.

The best college catching prospect in this year’s draft, Knapp batted .350 with eight homers at California this spring. A switch-hitter, he stands out most with his power and arm strength. He needs to improve his receiving but has the athleticism to do so.

Yesterday, when I saw they signed Knapp for the full-slot, it surprised me a bit. He was not a name I was very familiar with, so I assumed he was a lesser talent, that they picked to save some money. The bonus shows the Phillies really wanted him.
The Phillies seem to put high value on Cape Cod league performance. I researched. Knapp put up numbers in that league that compared with the 1st round picks. He hit nearly as well as Phillip Ervin (Cape MVP) and Austin Wilson. And he hit better than Eric Jagielo, Daniel Palka and Colin Moran, over the 40 games. Kapp hit 293/414/564 with 8 HRs, 22 walks and 9 HBP in 171 PA’s. MVP Ervin had 11 HRs and 17 walks. 323/429/631. Being that catcher is the premium position, maybe Knapp has been under rated.

Are we talking about true plus tools here or just above average? Considering how highly people on here rate Joseph who has above-average power, average hit tool, plus arm and below average defense, it sounds like Knapp should be pretty highly rated in our system.

Keith Law, who rated Knapp higher than Baseball America (Callis), says Knapp does not have plus power.
I’ve never read that “plus” on any of his tools. Just that he was a very good hitter for a catcher, with good athleticism and a good arm.

I guess I was right to be skeptical when people were throwing around words like “plus,” However, “very good hitter for a catcher ” is even more worthless of an evaluation. I have heard that his bat will play at more than just catcher. I can’t wait to see some 20-80 evaluations on these draft picks.

The quote from Keith Law on Knapp:
“He’s a solid receiver with a quick release and above-average arm strength…
I think his likely ceiling is a solid regular, a catcher who can help limit the running game and hits for some average but not power. In this draft class, that’s a second-round pick”

Would you like to have Miguel Sano in the Phillies farm system? He could have been there. Nothing and no one except David Montgomery prevented Sano from being a member of the Phillies organization.

Do the Phillies like other Dominican players in addition to Rafael Devers?

No problem.

Tampa liked a bunch of players last year and signed them all. Sure they can’t sign anyone for more than $250,000 this year, but they got a haul last year and those guys are a year ahead of this years crop.

The Phillies need all the bats they can get and as soon as they can get them. The Phillies need superstar hitting talents. Rafael Devers is a real 3B prospect. He could probably play 2B as well. His bat is a clone of Robbie Cano.

Devers is a star waiting to happen and again there is only one guy on this planet preventing him from becoming a member of the Phillies organization. The same guy who prevented them from signing Miguel Sano.

Those complaints against the Phillies, Giles, and Montgomery being unwilling to spend in LA are completely legit. It is well documented historically. In fact, when you research the details it is far worse than many would even expect possible.

During the greatest influx of LA players into MLB in history the Phillies chose to stand on the sidelines and watch.

Encarnacion is a Dominican Darin Ruf or Greg Luzinski. In fact that’s going too far since Ruf can play 1B and Encarnacion with his HANDS OF STONE is either a crappy LF or a DH.

I’m sick and tired of these third rate international “prospects”. Every one of them is flawed, most of them fatally. Just look at the Phillies over the past decade. What have they produced? Chooch and Bastardo. The later is crap so we’re talking about one player and you wonder why the Phillies farm system is at the bottom of the game and the big club can’t hit its way out of a paper sack.

Rafael Devers is a superstar and if you don’t know that then why are you on this site?

You have such in depth scouting and player development knowledge on 15 and 16 year old kids in the Dominican. It is miracle a major league organization has not hired you, they could all use someone who can tell them the future of every kid they can sign.

For a short period of time Luzinski could hit. I saw his Phillies career. He had a couple of great seasons. His fielding was so bad though that he needed to be pulled from games and as his bat came back to a mortal level he was more of a minus and had to go.

In Rafael Devers we’re talking about a multiple All-Star infielder like Rollins and Utley. It’s just suicidal for the Phillies to continue with this policy.

The Phillies LA program has pretty much been a miserable failure since Bill Giles took over in 1983. But the reason for that is because the Phillies either spent virtually no money in LA(1984 thru 1993), hardly any money (1994-1998), and the bare minimum down in the LA (1998 – 2011). Until 2011 the Phillies were one of the lowest spending organizations in MLB for almost 30 years. If we could get the numbers I bet they would be last over that 3 decade period. Basically the Phillies operated in LA the way Jeffrey Loria operates in Miami.

But being players for $1M players is new for them. If they spend $1M on a player like Encarnacion or Devers that would be a welcome departure. Now whether Devers or Encarnacion is the better player, from all reports I have read scouts are divided. One thing I will give you is that the Red Sox seem hot for Devers and they have done a better job in the draft and in LA over the last decade than the Phillies have done. A lot of that is money, but not in all cases. Let’s see how it plays out. At this point I am just hoping the Phillies get 1 of the Top 10 guys.

MattWinks:
Phillies, I have noticed, but can be corrected, seem to like to go for Venezuelan/Panamanian kids vs the DR kids. Maybe it is me, seeing that. But I think, they see the Ven kids as being may be a bit more mature or intelligent or whatever. Or perhaps Sal Agostinelli prefers and has better rapprot with Ven agents and families then the DR agents and families.
Do you have a break-down, say over the last 10 year period of total numbers of Ven vs DR kids signed by the Phillies?

I don’t have a breakdown but it would be an interesting possibility down the road. There are some major difference between prospects from Venezuela and the Dominican and I don’t know how the Phillies view each one.
– There are no age concerns in Venezuela because the government likes to know their people
– Venezuelan prospects tend to be more polished because there is more organized baseball and less emphasis on showcases
– Many teams avoid Venezuela due to the political state of the country as well as safety concerns
– The Phillies have continuously had a baseball academy in Venezuela (only about 5 teams have academies right now)

That is a little harsh. If I had to guess we would average in the 15-20 range in Latin American spending over the past decade. That has been pretty consistently reported. We don’t sign the million dollar guys, but we usually have 4-5 $100K guys each year with the top couple in the $300K-$700K range.

Should we have done much more with our revenue stream? Yes. But it is a mis-characterization to say we have been a miserable failure and last in spending. The Giles era was like that but since then we have been in the low middle end. We have produced major leaguers also, just not enough and not enough stars.

Actually, the Philadelphia market -population and TV market- is the 4th/5th largest in the U.S. To be ’15-20 range’ is a disgrace and a disrespect for the 3M plus fans who show up for the games every summer, me being one.
As our obsessive poster AEC says…..the finger can be pointed at certain individuals…owners and President.
How to change that ‘frugal’ mindset. Not blasting them on this site…thats fruitless and just lets you vent.
But get the large Latin/Hispanic community of Philadelphia and surrounding area ie Camden, led by elected political officials and demand the Phillies have their roster manned by the current MLB percentages of Latin players….which stands at almost 30%.
That means, the roster should have 7/8 players of Latin descent.
Phillies will counter, they do with the Galvis’, Hernandez’ , Ruiz’ and who ever.
The point…you have to politically correctably embarass ownership publicly to get them to change.

I agree that they probably should have spent more in the LA market and so does AndyB. I stopped agreeing with you when you tried to make things about race though. I can’t tell if you’re accusing the organization of whitewashing the team or not. If so the assertion is ridiculous because the Phillies have an above average number of African American players on their team. Rollins, Brown, Howard, Mayberry, Revere, Delmon Young. That’s 6/25 or 24% and the average is 8.5% in the league.

Not claiming race…..jusr equal opportunity.
But the point is…to change the philosophy or mindset of this organization….you have to embarass ownership publicly.
Or get the same ad naueseum for the duration, and the product on the field will be average with a stroke of luck every few decades..

It was reported in 2011 the top teams in MLB spend about $5M per year in LA. The average MLB spend was about $2.5M in LA. And the Phillies spent about $1M per year for many years. From 1983 to 1998 if they weren’t at the very bottom of spending, it had to be bottom 5. Unless there were a bunch of teams spending almost nothing in LA.

It got better around 1998, but that was when they started spending $1M per year on average. Well below the MLB average. So maybe they weren’t the lowest spending team, but they were nearer the bottom than the middle…that is documented fact.

My biggest problem with this is that the teams the Phillies compete against for a WS all spend more than them. Some way more than them. That doesn’t help the Phillies odds of winning another WS. It isn’t that LA is some fantasy land filled with superstars, plenty of these guy are busts. It is that the Phillies intentionally placed themselves at a competitive disadvantage in LA.

Agree Nobody.
Hopefully with the new CBA and monetary limitations on international signings the Phillies will be on a more level playing field from here on out.
No sense crying over spilt milk at this point.

Yes, the new monetary limitations on the Draft and LA spending are godsends to Phillies fans. It won’t force the Phillies to spend more, but it does force the other teams to spend less…or if they don’t spend less there is a real penalty attached for them. So the rest of the pack is forced back into the Phillies neighborhood.

If I was a fan of a team like the Red Sox however, I would be really upset with the new formats.

You are combining numbers that have no relation to reach other. The Phillies in the last decade have been in the middle or slightly below in terms of spending. If the average was 2.5 million we have been around 2.2 million. It has been way more than a million for a long time. I don’t dispute that they were in the bottom 5 for a brief period 20 years ago. But their more recent history has been close to the middle. A half dozen teams have competed over the high-priced talents and maybe the Phillies should have done more than that. But it is also unfair to characterize them as spending much below average. That is not true. Their LA spending has been average or close to it. Their revenues have been above average so they should have spent more… But let’s not start from the point of saying their LA spending has been bad. It has been close to average. Their results have also been close to average in terms of talent. They should have been spending more, but that also does not mean they were not doing anything.

I have the utmost respect for your input. I usually defer to it as I have learned much from you over the years. But where are you getting your $2.2M estimate from? I realize you were not being literal but trying to demonstrate what you meant by average to slightly below average. But what information are you using to be confident the Phillies have been close to average spending in LA? I agree that in the last 2 or 3 years they have increased spend. Sal Agostinelli was quoted in early 2012 article saying that they realized they needed to increase LA spend to get the better players because they all realized the core at the MLB was getting older. But from 2010 and backwards, I am not finding anything to suggest they weren’t near the bottom annually. Are you including money spent on the bricks and mortar academies? I am honestly interested in where you got that info.

Because in 2011 here is what Paul Hagen wrote…that the average annual budget for the Phillies in LA was around $1M…MLB average was $2.5M. He wrote that after speaking with Dallas Green. That doesn’t sound like near the middle to me? That sounds like near the bottom.

That is one anonymous source. Baseball America has pretty consistently put the Phllies spending in the middle. This subject is very under-reported and with little sourcing – but we do see 4-5 high profile signings from the Phillies each year. Plus they do operate complexes that have been universally acclaimed to be good. I think the quotes you are referring to from the Inquirer are less informed than the Baseball America quotes which try to assess all of baseball.

All the BA articles are behind a paywall so they do not show up in search engines. We also should not confuse average spending with median spending. There are 5-10 organizations that have signed the high dollar talents in the past decade. The Phillies by strategy mine the second tier. Their spending may be below average, but that is because they have no million dollar signings. They can still be in the 15-20 range though even if the number is below average (not median). 10-15 organizations spend very little and we are generally at the top of that list.

Ruiz, Bastardo, Galvis, Hernandez, Franco, Escalona, Santana, Carrasco, Villar, Bonilla all have either played for the team in the last several years (or might play roles in the near future), or been used as trade chips, and I just did that off the top of my head.

Not saying the team has been on top of the LA market, to argue as much would be silly, but to say they’ve produced two guys when I just named eight who’ve played fairly significant roles the last half dozen years or been trade chips, (plus two who seem like good bets to contribute at the big league level), is equally disingenuous.

Poor reasoning……better look at the other organizations in baseball and see where the Phillies stack up. Of the people you named above….maybe, just maybe, two/three become or have become impact players. Incidentally, how many signed as 16-year olds for $1M plus?
The org is too frugal and thrifty….you see I avoided calling them cheap, when it comes to the LA market.
Look at the Yankees on only two players….G.Sanchez and J. Montero…look at the $ they spent for just those two.
Not all top LA signees make it….but the risk is metigated when you spend.
As the 4/5th largest market in the US this is a disgrace.
Further….New York, Los ANgeles and Chicago all have two MLB teams to share their markets. Philly having one are in a better less competitive market position.

Sorry, but what did I say that was poor reasoning? I was critical of “anon”‘s comment about “2” guys. I agree with you that they were not spending a ton and have a history of not getting the big names. Doesn’t negate the fact that they produced players that had value. I never said their history in LA markets were great or even good, but rather that to suggest they’d done as little as produce 2 players from the LA signings in recent years was faulty.

I think the poor reasoning is to equate ‘made it’ to ‘appeared briefly in the majors or were included in a trade (or might be in the future’. With all due respect, that is a very silly definition, apparently chosen to allow you to refute a point. Many, many players in every organization satisfy that definition. I think few observers would agree that Carrasco, Villar, Hernandez, Franco, Santana, Bonilla have ‘made it’.If they ‘make it’ in the future, then they can be added to the list of the Phillies LA players who have ‘made it’.

Anon didn’t say “made it”. Nor did I. He said “I’m sick and tired of these third rate international “prospects”. Every one of them is flawed, most of them fatally. Just look at the Phillies over the past decade. What have they produced? Chooch and Bastardo. The later is crap so we’re talking about one player and you wonder why the Phillies farm system is at the bottom of the game and the big club can’t hit its way out of a paper sack.”

So how is what I said not logically counter to his argument? He’s immediately dismissing Freddy Galvis out of hand, and then judging a system based solely on the players he has picked out as valuable. He’s saying the LA efforts of the org have been trash, essentially, when you can point to many more guys who have given you value out of the LA market.

I never stated they were even in the middle of the pack, but their spending is not consistent with bottom of the barrel LA teams – they’re not near the top, they’re around the end of the second 10. The 30-40th percentile or so. Anon’s point was that they have had no success beyond Ruiz, basically, when it’s clear they have reaped the benefits of their LA efforts beyond the current big league roster via trade.

Also, I never said “made it”. You did. So to base your whole point on whether guys have “made it” has nothing to do with whether what I said used sound reasoning. I said they created value for the organization. If you don’t agree with that as sufficiently reasonable to refute someone’s claim that the org’s LA output is essentially one of the worst in the game, then so be it.

It was clear from anon’s post that he meant impact player, as Ruiz was acknowledged and Bastardo dismissed. I replied to your response to Romus. I do think it fair to state that you are prematurely counting a lot of guys and that even in Pdoing so, you don’t have all that much of a list, so I think you more prove than disprove the point. I love Galvis, but he is yet to achieve MLB starter status. Santana has yet to reach the majors at all, although I am also high on him. I just think that in judging Phillies success alongside the quality LA operations, we come up very short. Pre-Giles ownership group we were elite.

‘Really doesn’t have much to do with how many teams NY and LA have’..incorrect.
The market revenue is not shared in Philadelphia as it is in those other cities with two teams.
So there is no reason for the Phillies to be so frugal with the revenue.
However, under the new CBA, the venue is altered a bit and hopefully the future for LA signees becomes more productive.

The Phillies relative level of spending in LA has never had anything to do with their relative amount of revenue, so an expansion in revenue will not, of itself, make any difference at all. The Phillies will have to change their operating philosphy relative to the importance of spending to develop LA (and draft, for that matter) talent for that to happen. It cannot be a big change from where we are today, because the new rules constrain such change. The rules limit us to being a middle-of-the-pack spender at our current level of major league success. I think it is beyond dispute that the PHillies badly underspent in LA in the past and that this has severely hurt their chances going forward, over probably the next decade. That time is past. There is very little that increased revenue can do to retrieve that situation, going forward. As Anonymous says, and as I have written in the past, the new rules do seem to leave a big spending team the out of spending huge in alternate years and taking the penalty of reduced signing $ in the other half of the years. I can’t really imagine the Selig-loving Phillies owners ever permitting such a thing.

All I was saying is local TV contracts are driving it and all you need to do is look at Franchise Value, Revenues, and then the local TV contracts. Yankees and Dodgers> Phillies right now. Phillies not sharing a market is expected to help them negotiating their deal which is expiring which goes to your point.

Mrs. Devers, we understand you love your son, but we have no control over what the Phillies do. We wish you and the rest of the Devers family the best of luck and hope nothing but the best for you, Rafael, and the Phillies

If you don’t sign a pick in the first ten rounds, you lose their slot allocation altogether. The only way to give their money to someone else is to sign them for under slot and use the savings however you want.

Jan Hernandez is my favorite pick of the draft and would immediately move into my top 5 overall. Not signing him is not an option. He looks more like a quality major leaguer in his short video than any Phillies draft pick in recent memory.

Anonymous vor. let me understand this, if you dont sign monda, his money cant be used on any other player through the whole draft.. So if you want to go over slot for herdandez and crawford with the money you saved on monda, you cant. that is really dumb in my opinion. if say your allowed 3 million for your first ten picks can y sign your first pick for 3 million and not sign anyone else>

I’d like to see the rule changed to be something similar to the injury rule. Basically if a player passes his pre-draft physical and then after being drafted it is discovered he has an injury as long as a team offers 50% of the slot value to the player and if he declines that team still retains his full slot value in their bonus pool.

If you offer a player 100% of slot value in a contract submitted to the player and CC’d to MLB and that player declines it then you should retain the full slot value in your bonus pool since you negotiated in good faith.

Roccum – we discussed this above, but here’s the short version. They can spend the “slot pool” money on any of the 1st ten round guys if they sign the pick, or add leftover slot money to later round guys that want more than $100k to sign. So now that they’ve saved some money on rounds 8 and 9, they’ve paid off what they spent over slot on Sandberg. If they wanted to give 11th rounder Denton Keys an extra $50k, they have the pool space to do it.

If they don’t sign Monda, they lose that pool space, but it doesn’t make a difference because they would have been using it on Monda, (no one ever thought he would sign for less than slot, I don’t think). So they lose the player who won’t sign, and a little bit of flexibility to go over the “pool”, where they’d be paying a tax on the money spent anyway, (another story altogether), but that’s it. It’s still money the team can spend, it’s just it has to be within the rules I just mentioned – late round guys for $100k or under.

Good point, that the money not used on Monda is still real money, that can be spent elsewhere.
The Phillies, no doubt, have an overall draft budget. In not signing Monda, it might cause the Phillies to sign a guy like Tyler Viza for 200K, that they would have ignored if they spent 236K on Monda.
We’ve seen it before on a bigger scale, with Scott Frazier vs the Pointer, Walter, Musser group.

How can you possibly conclude that from what was written. The Monda money is gone if he doesn’t sign. The team can’t spent extra money, beyond $100 K, from the extra players unless they saved on top 10 bonuses FROM GUYS WHO ACTUALLY SIGNED FOR LESS THAN SLOT, or take it from their 5% fined overage allowance, which our ownership will never permit. So, in all practical terms, if Monda doesn’t sign, that is $160K and a top-10 round player lost.

You guys are talking past each other I think. No, you can’ t allocate Monda’s pool allocation to someone else. Yes, you can take the cash that the Phillies budgeted to pay their draft picks and give it to someone else but within the confines of the MLB draft pool system.

Allentown, I understand very well how the cap works. I also know that Monda’s CAP SPACE can not be used, if he is not signed. That was not my point, and I do not think that was Brad’s point. (You will see that if you carefully read the last sentence of his post).
Monda’s cap space is insignificant (236K). The Phillies still have 5.8million to spend on the other 9 rounds, or allocate the underslots to guys like Keys and Viza.

The point I was making, was that if the Phillies planned on spending Monda’s money (not cap space) and the entire 6.045 mil pool, the money they planned on spending for Monda theoretically can go to a player that they would not have gone over budget to sign.

Maybe it’s because he reads your comments and decided he doesn’t want to be a part of an organization with such an over zealous “fan” that has nothing better to do than criticize the spending of a team who dishes out well into the hundreds of millions of dollars each year.

I realize that the other Anonymous also makes unwarranted comments about the Phillies not spending enough at the major league level. I agree with you that he is wrong on that. The major league problem is a matter of not spending smartly and lacking a strategic plan, rather than insufficient salary $. However, Anonymous is exactly right about the severe problems caused by the Phillies extreme unwillingness to budget enough $ to acquire amateur talent from all sources, including the semi-pro talent from Cuba and Japan. I know the other Anonymous annoys you. He also annoys me. But I also don’t understand why this forum has so many apologists for the way management has budgetted for amateur bonuses. I’ve heard how the shotgun approach of cheap international talent, coupled with fabulous bricks and mortars is the way to go. I’ve heard how they just don’t have the opportunity to spend more. I’ve heard how the scouts and Wolever are actually allowed to spend as much as they feel any talent is worth. I’ve heard that we are actually doing very well in producing MLB talent from both the draft and LA, thank you very much. I’ve heard how the farm really isn’t all that important as a source of talent to a big money team like the Phillies. I’ve heard everything is just fine and the MLB team has just suffered two seasons of extraordinary injuries or RAJ has just signed the wrong FA, or RAJ is just plain stupid. Anything but the owners refuse to allow not just RAJ, but each of his predecessors, to spend sufficiently on amateur bonuses. Frankly, these are arguments which make as little sense as the other Anonymous typing DEVERS twenty times a day. I will grant that a strong MLB team with a youngish core can skimp on signing quality amateur talent for 5 or 6 years before the dry rot in the system becomes apparent at the MLB level. I’ll grant that good scouting can partially overcome cheap budgetting as can good instruction. But guys, let’s open our eyes and admit that the chickens of skimpling on amateur talent acquisition have finally come home to roost and present a very big problem for the major league Phillies now and going forward.

Very well put allentown1. You hit all the points. As Bill Giles alluded to in 1994….’this is a small market team’.
A philosophy that seems to continually creep into their fiscal decisions.
But like every squirrel and finding the proverbial nut, we will win one every few decades and for the most part stay relatively competitive in the other years.
The passionate phans will continue to come out and support their locals.

If you go by the end of the 2013 season rankings Dozier is the better prospect. In reviewing the BA Handbook, it seems Jan Hernandez was rated higher as a HS player, than Dozier was as a college player, before the season.

I always review the BA handbook to see how many of the preseason top 100 collegian players and top 100 HS players the Phillies select. The Phillies’ draft board always seems to follow the BA pre-season rankings more than the BA end of season rankings. This year they drafted an unusually high number of the Pre-season top 100 Hs and college.

Have to sign Jan Hernandez hes my favorite pick this year. Love his swing and Bat speed. Even though im no scout you know how you can just watch a kid and know hes going to be a player. Thats how i feel with him. I had the same feeling with Jon Singleton a few years ago but i also had that feeling towards Tyler Greene. hey you cant win them all.

I think Ben Wetzler is probable starter tomorrow against Lousville 3 pm EST in elimination game in CWS. Lose and OSU goes home. Probable TV Channel is ESPN2. I am going by an article that says he is probable starter so if for some reason he doesn’t start don’t throw rocks at me.

Andrew Moore started Saturday and Matt Boyd pitched an inning of relief (he lost the game).

Good news on the Hernandez signing. I have generally been a fan of the last 3 draft classes. The new bonus system I think finally puts the Phillies on a more level playing field with their direct competition for a WS.

Now, if Larry Greene Jr. could just get it together somehow that would be great. Has any top prospect ever started off this horrible and recovered to make it to MLB? I can’t think of any examples off the top of my head.

Joe Savery. Actually that is a decent example. Not sure if I should be encouraged or discouraged by that. I guess all could agree that we hoped for more from Greene (although I realize Greene was picked about 20 spots later than where Savery was).

Is anyone basing Jan Hernandez “signing” on anything more than a couple Facebook photos of him with a Phillies shirt and hat talking about getting drafted and an indication on PhilliesPhans.com, (which is colored like you would expect from a tweet or, say, a facebook photo)? Maybe it’s lost in the translation, but nothing I saw in Spanish that sounded like he has signed, and wearing a Philiies hat and shirt doesn’t prove much – it seems like post-draft photos that any guy might have taken.

Obviously the Hernandez signing needs to be confirmed by the Phillies before official, but on another site (Phillies Phans) the forum moderator Julio found an article in Spanish that suggests he signed around 6/14. Here is the link…

Google translator says: A few feet from the ‘home plate’ Antonio Dominguez Nieves park of Villa Blanca, where he played and developed from four years, the Caguas’ Jan Hernandez last night became a professional baseball player when he signed with the Philadelphia Phillies, who picked him in the…draft…surrounded by family, coaches, friends who saw him start and become a valued player, Hernandez wore the shirt and Phillies cap after receiving several reminders and recognition…

The article syas, in brief, that In the baseball stadium of Caguas, Puerto Rico, Jan Hernandez, wearing a Phillies cap and jersey, accepted the good wishes of family, friends, and coaches, announcing that he had signed to play professional baseball with the Phillies (Filis).

After 30 years of basically a similar approach, I doubt they can be embarassed. 99% of the fans don’t even know this stuff. I am not even sure most understand details enough to care.

Allentown has stated it far more eloquently than I have, but the most frustrating thing is that it would just seem to be good business. The math supports that approach. Regardless of the facts of the math they never chose to embrace those facts but pretty much continued in their frugal approach to investing amatuer talent. The fact that they never seem to have acknowledged this reality does indeed suggest it is a cultural mindset that ownership has and it would seem to start with Giles and Montgomery.

It probably doesn’t matter much anymore since the bonus system went into effect in 2012. But the general void of top talent in the farm system close to MLB will have a negative impact until the most recent draft classes have a chance to develop thru the system. That means it is probably 2016 before the real influx of younger talent will start making it’s way to MLB.

Of course this assumes that RAJ is done making Hunter Pence type trades.

Perhaps the Phils’ international signings, spending, and player development can be its own individual article, separate from General Discussion and draft signings. It seems that there is a lot to discuss.

I agree. It’d be a lot nicer if this thread were limited to discussing this draft and its signings. Any chance you can run through this thread and just delete all of the useless back-and-forth over spending?

Martarano: Can someone inform me how his situation compares to Jeff Smar (cubs). I know he played football at ND and was drafted by the Cubs. I believe little Biggio is going to ND, which would mean ND has a baseball team?

Samardzija went to ND to play football and baseball, he was selected as a junior in the MLB draft and chose to forgo his senior year of baseball (but played football that year). His situation is most similar to Martarano but slightly different. ND has fairly good baseball team that just had a first rounder picked by the Yankees and Biggio will be going to ND to play just baseball.

Saw some of previous game he won that got OSU in. Appears in this game in the first inning , he used a cutter on Ty Young to strike him out looking. Wasn’t aware he had a cutter which is a positive especially for a lefty.

With only Monda (assume Wetzler signs for slot) out of Top10, and all the Juco guys signed I would consider it a good draft. Nothing too special with pluses for Sandberg, Williams, Maratano, and Meadors and minus for Monda. The seniors 8 thru 10 gives some play money to throw at a HS kid.

Losing Monda (who seemed like a reach anyway) hurts since they could have spent that money on another guy, just dumb to cut out another talent guy from the budget.

I expect Keys and Jax to sign. If Phillies could get one more of the BA ranked guys to sign I’d consider it a very good draft. Not sure they can get more than one more of those guys.

Based on reviewing the BA Handbook, I’m actually more hopeful that Monda signs. There had to be something there, for him to be ranked as a top 50 collegian.
I’m also interested in 36th rounder, David Whitehead. I wonder what it takes for a player like him, to be ranked top 100 collegian, then suddenly not ranked top 500 by the end of the season.

Whitehead had TJ performed by Dr. Kremchek in Cincy the end of April, my kid had it the same week. Think he was out for several weeks prior to surgery(?). He’s a great young man, focused and dedicated to returning strong.

The #1 pick signing isn’t news in the Draft tracker thread.
I’d rather read the same 3 guys trampeling all over threads with their complaints about amateur spending every year. This year, since there is a draft cap, you get bonus LA spending complaints in the draft thread.

Its more of an indication of just how long its been since we’ve had a pick even this high…though the odds of a player succeeding go up exponentially even just from going from the bottom half of the 1st round to the top half of it.

No. Every pick after round 11 can sign for 100K without counting against the pool cap. The 250K can be used for the amounts above 100K. Example: Denton Keys can now be signed for 350K. Or the can choose to sign Keys for 250K and Viza for 200K.

Generally speaking – around $650k on one guy, or basically $100k plus $550k spread out to multiple guys, and the team has to be willing to pay the tax – that’s no certainty. And we’re not sure on Hernandez, Monda and Wetzler bonuses, any of which could be over slot. If Monda doesn’t sign, you lose a little flexibility in the overage before draft pick penalty, but not much. 5% of his slot.

I’d like something more than a Spanish language article, too – like a Phillies press release! But I don’t see a report from La Nueva Dia, in Spanish, as any more suspect than a report from local TV news in Tampa, for instance (the first report on Cord Sandberg).

if anyone is still looking for some good little blurbs about each pick philliessportscentral.com has 2 articles up summarizing the batters and pitchers respectively that we took in this draft. Just a little light reading as we wait patiently for the shoe to drop on the last signings and the start of the july 2nd international period.

Seems like a waste of a pick if they did not have a better grip on his signability. I don’t think there are any compensation picks for not signing him, unlike Jan Hernandez this year for Rash from last year.

Sorry if this was already posted in here or known or whatever but I happened to come across this today and I hadn’t heard this –
Middle infielder Dalton Dulin was a 36th round selection by the Phillies. It is reported that the Philadelphia franchise will watch Dulin play this summer and then there will be talks as to whether he will attend Ole Miss or head to the Pros.http://mississippi.scout.com/2/1298557.html

Well you can say there isn’t much to project with most of these guys after Trey Williams pick. Dulin is actually one of the more skilled players in our draft after Williams pick.

He’s a better prospect than Dove who’s 22 and had 6 career HRs at Ga Tech and a .783 OPS this season. Dove isn’t even ranked.

Dulin’s the 10th or so highest BA ranked player in our draft. Switch hitter, good swing, decent power, excellent basestealer, good glove, good arm. Was an Under Armour All American with Hernandez, Crawford, Martarano.

Being one of the best HS 2b in the game doesn’t make you a good Major League draft prospect. Major League 2B are shortstops when they are in High School.
The bigger issue for me, regarding Dullin, is his age. There have been studies that show HS players drafted at 17, improve more than 18 year olds, and 18 year old draftees improve more than 19 year olds. Being 19, just may be the reason why he is such a better player against his current HS competition.

Well, Phillies only have 3 more weeks or so to watch him.
Also, the Phillies should be watching all the picks they chose. The issue may be how much does Dulin this he is worth and what will the Phillies offer.

•The Phillies will not sign sixth-round choice Jason Mondab, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com reports on Twitter. The Washington State junior had initially seemed willing to sign, but elected instead to return for his final year as a collegiate ballplayer.

No I presume that Wetzler is signing for slot. However, the Phillies may wait until he actually signs the contract before they start making offers to Keys, Jax, etc. I would like it if they would finalize the Martarano deal too.

Could fall apart, still, I suppose. Like if Boise State really comes down on him to stop playing baseball. Though the way the deal is supposedly set up, I see little reason to do so this year as he’s not putting himself at any risk due to baseball. Next summer when he wants to go to Phils camp will be the real decision point for him and BSU.

I guess if he dominates in a CWS game or something he could try to ask for more money, especially since he has a year of eligibility left as leverage. He was picked higher than BA rankings, so that extra money to buy him out of a year was probably factored into where they picked him, believing that he would sign based on their discussions leading up to the draft. I haven’t heard anyone suggest he’s anything but a slot sign, so probably that’s very close to what he’ll be.

As you say, the Phillies have 235K (assuming theys sign Holmes for slot). But they also have another 290K (5.8mil x 5%) to play with, if they do not care about the tax.
I hope they use the money on Keys and Viza

I expect Hernandez to primarily at 3B with some time at SS. Williams will be at 1B with time at 3B. Sweaney will rotate at C and DH; I doubt Phillies try to put him anywhere else so he can focus only on C until they see what he can do in offseason time.
Not sure who else Phillies have to put at 2B and other OF spot.

Scott Frazier signs with Cubs for 267K. Supposedly turned down 1 million from the Phillies 3 years ago. BA profile said back then he was a projected candidate for 2013, #1 overall pick, but career never came together at Pepperdine.

I would like to see them get Holmes-Wetzler signed by mid-week this week and then start negotiating with the overslot candidates. I’m going to be irked if they don’t get 2 of (Keys, Jax, Martarano). I don’t think there has ever been anything “official” related to Martarano (mlb.com database, Phillies press release or BA draft database), so I am presuming that they do NOT have a signed deal as of now. Even if he doesn’t report until next summer, he’s got to be signed by 7/12 or we lose his rights.

I am going to assume they agreed on a deal with Wetzler-Holmes before they drafted him. Over the weekend, Wolever said that they believed Wetzler would sign, but admitted that Monda wouldn’t sign.
Many of the college players taken in the 5th and 6th round this year, signed under-slot deals, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Wetzler signed for less than his 315K slot.
As for the players I would like signed in rounds 11-40: 11th round HS pitcher, Keys, 18th round pitcher, Childs and 32nd round HS pitcher, Viza. Sign 2 of them and I’m good. I’m ambivalent towards Martarano, because of the football.

Well, if Dan Child signed, that is a good sign that Wetzler will want to sign. Jake Rodriquez, the Oregon state catcher, has already signed with the Astros. Matt Boyd, the #1 pitcher, is a senior. Junior pitcher, Scott Schultz was rumored likely to sign. That is basically the entire Oregon state pitching staff and starting catcher. Heart of Wetzler’s team will be gone. No reason to stay.

Child and Wetzler were basically rated the same level prospect coming into the season, and both have a similar rank now. For me, Child’s signing is just as important as Wetzler’s.
Viza and Keys were the HS signings outside of the top 5, that needed to get done. With Viza done, if they get Keys, they accomplished what was needed.

DONT know that this means. I was trying to look for info on draft choices, and saw this on this kids profile, dont know what it means.This MaxPreps.com professional photo is from the gallery Mountain Vista @ Cherry Creek which features Cherry Creek high school athletes playing Baseball. This photo was shot by Tim Visser and published on Visser.
.

“Viza… an athletic build at 6-foot-3 and 200 pounds with long arms. His fastball was in the 87-88 mph… his fastball was in the 90-92 mph range late this spring. He has a good slider and already shows feel for a changeup

Jim Callis responded to a tweet of mine and he said he thought both Wetzler AND Keys signs. Encouraging news.

Also the more I read about Grimes, the more I’m intrigued about him. Big time stuff but just can’t stay healthy. Historically with juniors fitting this profile, do they go back to school to try to improve their draft status one last time or choose to begin the rehabilitation process with a pro team?

Phil’s hit this draft out of the park. Lots of top 500 ranked guys signed, many of them passed over by other other teams due to signability. Monda was a whiff for sure. Too much faith in the nw scout….speaking of, they still need to get Wetzler signed.

So we dont sign 5 of our top fifteen and that okay?? comeon, anonymous you cant be serious, that you wasted 5 picks out of fifteen, Its a indication of how much our scouts are wrong on the ability of prospects to sign. My question is are they really getting to know the kids, the family and the real intentions of the kids to play pro ball now, and how much will get it done.and the committment of the phillies owners to sign these kids, losing workman over 75.000 was stupid imo.

Brandon WOrkman is doing well. He had a great start in AA this season and has been promoted to AAA. Why is he a bad example? If he were on our farm, he makes our top 10. 10+k?9 in AA, 8.6 K/9 in AAA at age 24, with good ERAs and a WHIP of 1.04 in AA. He’s given up too many HRs in AAA, but they seem to have been solo shots. What’s not to like about this guy?

Allentown, depends on how much you value an expensive backend starter? He signed a large bonus with the Red Sox in 2010 with alot of hype from his college days at Texas and he is 24(as you pointed out). He can help the Red Sox but don’t see him being a huge star as a backend starter.

For a college guy, age 24 in AAA isn’t all that old. He looks like a #3 starter. That’s very valuable. He’ll be a cheap #3, or if he falls to your valuation, a cheap #4 starter. How is he expensive. The cost of a draft bonus spread over the six years of team control is peanuts compared to the cost of a veteran guy. That’s why draft and international signing bonuses are such a great value. A number 3/4 starter is $6-8 mill a year. Look what we paid Blanton. Workman certainly looks like he can be better than Blanton.

Too many posters here do not understand baseball economics. For his $800K signing bonus if Brandon Workman ever just chewed up some innings during a single season as a #5 starter he would be worth his signing bonus. More than that and the Red Sox would start realizing a massive ROI.

That is because you dont get the point, you cant waste top ten picks. and workman will be a relief pitcher in the majors, look at his numbers, I guess in small minds like yours. phila, nothing they do is wrong, the facts are the facts ,you cant waste picks on kids in top rounds and not sign them,why didnt you mention susac?????. LMAO go get amaro another cup of coffee.

Roccum, saying I have a “small mind” was not needed but we could have just disagreed about the topic to be civil. I know I will not respond to anymore of your posts and hope the rest of the posters will do the same.

roccom……have to do some research, but believe the percent of all players selected after the fifth round that go onto to the major leagues is very low, I mean single digits low. I may be wrong but one of the BP writers did something on this awhile back I think.

Several of those picks were to create cap space to splurge on the tough signs after the 10th round. I’m impressed with the work they’ve done after the top 10 picks. The first five were also good. Aside from Monda, and possibly Wetzler, the Phils did a good job with this draft.

If you put stock in BA’s rankings they drafted the seventh most top 500 picks – and they weren’t back end picks, their average ranking of 235 was on the low side (lower being better obviously). Sure, some of those guys were flyers that aren’t going to sign, but they’ve actually signed a good number of them – when it’s all said and done they may end up signing more top 500 guys than any other team in baseball.

I’ll be the first to admit that the Phils were horribly cheap in years past, and the next couple of years are going to suck because of it, but this new draft system fits them to a tee, and they nailed it this time around. If they spend their full allotment in Latin America, and I think they will, I’ll be extremely pleased with how they handled their amateur talent acquisition this year (well, excluding whatever we do at the trade dead-line other than unloading Paps and the Youngs).

FWIW, Callis has said he believes Wetzler will sign. With many of his pitching staff mates leaving for the pros, going back to school for “one more try” at a title or something seems unlikely. He had his run, he’ll sign. Maybe he’s waiting on some more money or maybe they told him to take as much time to rest after his hard CWS, show up on Friday and put pen to paper.

I have to admit I’m a bit disappointed. I usually have pretty good instincts on these things. It never crossed my mind on draft day(s) that Wetzler and Monda were signing risks (and yes I know the Monda party line already). I figured we had really good shots at Keys and Martarano (on the stay at Boise deal). Jax always seemed like a long shot. Honestly, I don’t think we did a good job here. Draft paused for the night after the 10th round. We had all night to firm up our understandings with players (everybody does it) and it looks like we may not sign our 11th, 12th and 13th round picks. I think thats a poor job. I guess well see in a day and a half. Would love to eat my words.

I just feel you have a better shot of getting a player in the ten rounds, and they wasted two picks, because imo, they didnt get enough info on the players , to judge there signability.and if wetzer doesnt sign how much of there alloment for the draft would they have spent?? and in latin market if they dont sign the third basemen, how much of the top 30 talent did they get?? just wondering.To me the only real steal of top ten is sandberg, i like crawford yes but he was first round and there was a lot of top talent there. but getting sandberg signed was good,

They haven’t wasted his pick until these guys don’t sign. Monda they’ve conceded, so that’s 1. Everyone else has another day. Who says they won’t get Keys? You quoted 5 of 15 misses above, but I haven’t seen anything on Keys not signing either. I guess Jax has committed to the Air Force Academy, so he may be a lost cause, (baseball wise, though good for him – and I’m not sure if this is accurate, but someone said in the comments that you can get out of the service academies at any time as long as you pay back your educational costs – his, to date, would seem to be zero), and Martarano seems like a bold pick – if he gets hurt on the football field but can still play baseball, or isn’t productive in football, he’s a big talent for $100k bonus in the 13th round.

So I count 1 miss, which I agree seems like a fairly bad one, 2 likely to sign, 1 likely to sign with circumstances, (football), and Jax. Plus they nabbed Viza and Child, neither of whom were sure things, and another top 500 guy in Meadors. Not all that bad.

I agree that some of the complaints can be misguided at times. Some of the complaints are wrong. But mocking those examples is missing the forest for the trees. While some of you (but not all) have been mocking any criticism of the Phillies Draft and LA approach for years every site that ranks farm systems has the Phillies in the bottom half of MLB for good reason. And that is even with the mostly wildly positive reviews of the 2013 draft (or at least the first 5 picks).

Keith Law had them #4 the summer of 2011 before the Pence trade (frankly the biggest dropping factor has been Brown’s graduation). BP had them #8 going into that season. Unless they graduate multiple of Martin, Asche, and Morgan it is likely that they will be ranked right in the middle of the pack going into 2014.

I can’t say that I have mocked criticism of the Phillies past draft and LA strategies. Heck I agree with them. But constantly harping on these past failures (even if they are part of the cause of the weakness in our farm system) neglects the fact that because of the new CBA that these complaints are largely irrelevant moving forward.

I realized that after posting. The biggest problem with a high round pick not signing like Rash is that you cannot commit the money to another player until there is closure because you don’t want to go over the cap and lose a pick.

Unfortunately for the Phillies most other teams don’t seem to have the same complications and self inflicted quandries to work thru. They just get it done (i.e Cardinals) without a bunch of excuses and caveats and are finding ways to spend 99% to 105% of their pool amounts in the new system.

We’ll see what happens over the next 24+ hours. The Phillies frequently negotiate right up to the last hour so hopefully we see another deal or two.

The validity of the complaints is minimized, but not eliminated, by the changes wrought by the latest CBA. The complaint was that the high-revenue Phillies were not signing as much high-level talent as the old system permitted, because they stuck to the Selig suggestions and would not break aggregate slot, giving the competition an advantage. That still exists, but to a lesser degree. Some teams are quite willing to spend to 105% of slot and purchase additional international cap space. In doing so, they continue to gain a competitive advantage over the Phillies. Last season, the Phillies did not even spend their full cap. This season it looks like two top ten picks may not sign, one for sure will not, and we will again spend below cap. This is from a starting point in which our cap is mid-range, meaning that even if we stretch the limits as far as we can, about half of the teams will get to spend more than us. I agree that our top 5 picks are very good. However, management seems too willing to call this ‘good enough’ and not utilize our full cap.

The reason they ranked low is not because the Phillies have done a bad job of scouting/signing. Given their low quality draft picks and (admittedly self-imposed until two years ago) budget restraints, I think they’ve done remarkably well. The reason they are ranked low is because we have traded dozens of prospects to extend the big league club’s run.

We also rank low because we budgeted low for those drafts and international signing periods. There was no limit on international signings and many teams, but not the Phillies, flouted the draft bonus guidelines. The trades and the draft picks lost for FA comp, as well as the Philies position toward the end of the draft, certainly hurt, but much of the pain was self-inflicted by refusing to budget enough for the international market and refusal to budget more and flout the Selig draft bonus ‘suggestions’.

Dude, the Phillies had a TOP 5 SYSTEM TWO YEARS AGO! Much of the pain came from trades. OBVIOUSLY. You don’t like that the Phillies didn’t spend more. That’s fine. I’m not going to disagree about that. But, don’t revision history to back up your anger.

Rany Jazayerli:
“Still, draft patterns have changed over the years, making it unlikely that James’ original study, as groundbreaking as it was in its time, still paints an accurate portrait of the draft two decades later. In particular, the age-old question of high-school vs. college players is being continually revisited, and more than one expert has arrived at the conclusion that there is no longer any substantial advantage in selecting college players over high-school players early in the draft. Two years ago, Jim Callis of Baseball America wrote in this article (subscription required) the following regarding a study of the first ten rounds of the draft from 1991 to 1997:

“we find that 90 college players (8.8 percent) and 77 high school players (8.4 percent) became at least major league regulars for a few seasons�Though colleges produced slightly more regulars, high schools won the race for above-average players. They came out ahead in terms of good regulars (3.2 percent vs. 1.5 percent) and stars (1.1 percent vs. 0.9 percent). Once again putting that in terms of 250 draft picks, collegians generally would yield four above-average regulars and two stars. The prep ranks would generate eight above-average regulars and three stars.”
BA’s study produced interesting results, but I wanted to take a look at the data myself. I couldn’t do it all, so I recruited an army of one, also known as BP intern John Erhardt. This study would not have been possible without the efforts of John, who entered almost all of the data that makes up this study into a spreadsheet, mostly by hand.
This study includes the first 100 picks–roughly equivalent to the first three rounds–in every draft from 1984 to 1999. (Going forward, as shorthand I will refer to picks one through 30 as “first-round picks”; picks 31 through 70 as “second-round picks”–this would include the supplemental first round; and picks 71 through 100 as “third-round picks.”)

So I’m hoping we at least get Wetzler and Keys. Money should not be an issue. Wetzler has a $315K slot, We’re 175K under, so we can give him close to 500k. He’s not going to pass on that. We also have an emergency $250K or so (5% of our pool) that we can spend that just carries a tax but no draft pick penalties. This means we can give Keys $350K if we really like him even if we go overslot for Wetzler. If not Keys then we can try to get a guy like Dulin.

I am sure I posted it earlier in this thread but I agree with perception that the 11th, 12th, 13th round guys should be HS guys who your scouts have identified as $100K signings (or a specific number if you know you will have the extra $). Of course, what these players say to get drafted may change as the re-evaluated the landscape.
The HS guys takend after Round20 are then just fliers. Even Phillies can push some extra money to get one of them it might be worth it. Plus Phillies get a bit more time to watch these guys to see if they want to offer more.

It is worse to not sign your 5th or 6th round picks than to not sign a 1st through 3rd rounder as you get a redo on the 1st through 3rd rounder you don’t sign, while losing a 4th to 10 rounder is a dead loss.

Well, having the guy in question now instead of a year from now is nice to keep your farm as stocked as you can each year with tradeable assets (which new picks are not for a full year), but your point is well taken. Monda is lost, whereas Rash netted a similar pick this year. Unless there are wild swings in the talent levels year to year, (sometimes there can be), the similar picks in the following year are usually about as valuable as they would have been.

2013 Top 10 Round Picks Unsigned = 10: Phillies have 2 of the Ten. The first 4 however are protected picks (Top 3 rounds). The Red Sox have an unsigned 4th rounder. Then the Phillies have the next highest unprotected picks (5th round, 6th round). Marlins have 3 of the unsigned 10 but all are protected picks.

2013 Top 15 Round Picks Unsigned = 29: Phillies have 5 of them. There are 30 teams in MLB.

It really does make you wonder just what the Phillies scouts are doing when two of their top 12 picks basically said when drafted or shortly thereafter “I have no intention of signing with the Phillies” with their actions.

Monda says he has no interest and is going to go to medical school and Jax enrolls in the Air Force Academy.

Sure guys can have achange of heart, but that seems like two misses for guys who seemed pretty set on what they wanted to do the next few years and what they wanted to do did not involve playing minor league baseball.

I will bet you a nickel that Jax was committed to the AF Academy before the draft. It’s not like he joined the infantry, here. Sounds like you can leave the AF Academy with no repercussions, (save financial ones), anytime before you complete your second year.

Since all of the teams are competing for the same pool of players, you can be assured that the ones they value highest/think are likeliest to sign will be drafted in the teens, rather than going farther toward 40, so that some other team doesn’t sign them before you do. The guys drafted later are viewed as far tougher signs or far less quality.

Not all of picks 10-15 have to matter. Most teams seem to be using Rounds 11, 12, 13, etc to target the best overslot HS kids that are going to take significantly more than $100K to sign…or guys like Martarano that has plus power (based on reports) but is committed to football so he might sign for $100Kish as a flyer. For example the Cardinals just paid their 11th round draft pick, a HS pitcher, $750K to sign. That is $650K overslot.

For most teams the way they manage picks 5-10 determines how much bonus money they have to work with. That is where losing out on Monda or Wetzler could prove costly to the Phillies. Even if we accept that it “wasn’t the Phillies fault” if for example those picks had been used on college seniors instead for $10K each, the Phillies could have had almost another $500K to spend outside of Round 10 on the better HS prospects. This does not include the other $200K-$300K they could use to go over their pool amount.

This is in general. Some teams with Top 10 picks were saving hundreds of thousands or even millions with their 1st round pick by signing for less than slot and using that extra money in other rounds.

The basic point is that for some teams their picks in Rounds 11, 12, 13 were better prospects than the picks they made in Rounds 5, 6, 7, etc.

‘The basic point is that for some teams their picks in Rounds 11, 12, 13 were better prospects than the picks they made in Rounds 5, 6, 7, etc.’…that is an exception rather then the rule. And it is a risky one at that. But it could prove to be valuable return if it works out they way one would hope.But then again, the draft is the proverbial ‘crapshoot’ anyway.

I am just trying to see any info on the unsign. I dont know how to tweet, but looked up dublin, omg if its the right kid, he has a black porche and wears his clothes like a rapper. funny looking kid to me

Im starting to get nervous that Wetzler still hasnt signed with less than a day left. They have to come away with 3 more guys Wetzler, keys, Martarno, Jax, Dulin, Grimes. I love the top of our draft and getting Viza and Child was great but i cant be satisfied with 5 of our top 15 not signed. This will also be the 4th year in a row we didnt get our top 10 signed. Im praying for Wetzler, Keys, Martarno, and Grimes or Dulin. I would then give this draft an A grade A+ If we didnt draft Monda.

Today’s the day. I expect two signings. Wetzler should be a given and I’m really hoping for Dulin. Seems like a plus make-up kid. They should spend up to their allotment. I wish they’d go 5% over, but they just won’t. The odds of getting struck by lightening are higher.

I hope they get Wetzler and Keys. Dulin, ehh. If he signs, fine. If he doesn’t, fine.
Not big on 19 year old HS picks. Dulin will probably be draft eligible again in 2 years. If that is the case, that makes him a tougher sign than his talent dictates.

This is boring.
This morning I predicted just Wetzler
Though I was hoping for Wetzler and Keys.
I doubt they are even talking to anyone else.
Its possible they get nobody today.
More likely that than pay any penalty tax.
Just about 3 hours left.

Meh. Very happy they signed Keys (and Visa and Child last week). Kinda hard to be passing out the victory cigars when the Phillies had not just one but the highest 2 unsigned unprotected picks (5th and 6th) in a 30 team league. Even with the tax they spent way less than their draft allocation pool.

When you call up a guy and ask if he will sign and he says yes and then circumstances change after you draft them that isn’t always your fault. Monda maybe they should have tried to test the commitment more but Wetzler had circumstances change after the draft.

I think that is sugar-coating reality and making excuses for an unsatisfactory result. Across all of MLB, something like a dozen top 10 round, unprotected draft picks were not signed. The two highest round unprotected picks not to be signed were both Phillies picks. That makes us different, in not a good way, from the rest of baseball in the quality of signability screening done on our 4th-10th round picks. That they were both from the same part of the country says that a couple of scouting department guys didn’t do a very good job.

I realize that each kid had reasons for not signing and that they were different reasons. But…. these are unprotected picks and you must be CERTAIN the guy will sign. This really isn’t all that difficult. The Phillies had the two highest round unprotected picks that didn’t sign. The vast majority of MLB teams signed every one of their top 10 round unprotected picks. That means we did less well than the norm in this regard, a lot less well. I think the reason why the guys didn’t sign is pretty much irrelevant, most teams got the job done and we did not. The Phillies were a very clear outlier in this regard. Other teams’ scouts have to evaluate the signability of a lot of guys with various histories. They also looked at guys in the CWS, guys who are serious students, guys who really enjoy the college experience, guys whose parents really want them in college. Bottom line, almost every one of these other teams managed to avoid wasting an unprotected draft pick on a guy they couldn’t sign. You are just giving an explanation on why the kid chose not to sign, not an excuse for why our scouts were insufficiently plugged in to the kids’ desire to sign.

allentown1:
Putting things in perspective in regards to drafts:
Between Phillies drafts 2000 through 2007.
Top ten picks for each draft, eight drafts, equal 80 picks.
Of the 80 picks, approx 90% plus, signed.
Eight selections have played in the MLB.
IMO, four have been impact players….Utley, Hamels, Bourne and Floyd.
All first rounders except Bourne,.
So losing Wetzler and Monda, looks bad among baseball pundits but, odds are it will not be devastating.

You missed Howard, who was 5th round from 2001 draft. Less than great today, but in his prime, he certainly was an impact player. Also on this year’s Phillies, although not a Phillies draftee, but Michael Young was also a 5th rounder. He’s also not all that good now, but has had a very good career. So, you can get impact guys in round 5. It is a numbers game. A smaller percentage make it than in rounds 1 and 2, but the more 5/6 rounders you sign, the more lottery tickets you have purchased. Not quite 5th round, but Asche was a 4th rounder, when we drafted later in the draft and there were more comp picks, so Asche likely effectively just a half round earlier than Wetzler. There is also a big difference between current rules and the drafts of old, since your total available $ are reduced for not signing a 5th or 6th rounder. That means, had we drafted and signed two college seniors, we would have had those bodies in the system, and since they’d sign for perhaps $50K between them, that would have given us several hundred thousand $ additional to sign another more valuable talent from later in the draft. That is what you lose today by drafting unprotected mid-top-10 round guys and not signing them. Under the new system, you just absolutely have to make sure that you can sign your unprotected picks in the top 10 rounds. To say the kid changed his mind really doesn’t cut it. You need to know that he has a burning desire to turn pro.

Wasn’t about the money, he maybe cost himself $100k unless he gets hurt. Hard to fault the Phillies, they drafted him before the run through the College World Series and it appears he wanted to take a run at the title again (OSU lost position players but has a nice rotation).

In addition his teammate announced he was returning a couple hours ago and Wetzler did not. Also Callis said Phillies were still in negotiations with him earlier. So I thought it needed to be clarified and I thought maybe I missed something.

If the coach abuses his arm next year, he has no one to blame but himself. When he’s pitching in extended spring for free, with a 25K bonus, instead of having 300K in the bank, he may look at this as a mistake.

Agree. He will probably develop some arm soreness for sure, if his coach maintains his regiment with his pitchers, and he turns 23 next year in September, a few months after the draft in June, so his window is closing that much more. I think it is risky on his part.

He will get ten persent bonus from phillies, for saving them money, They just dont get it, in the player development dept, not the people, but the owners who tell them what to spend, montgomery if he has any say, is doing a terrible job, explaining to the owners, the kind of great investment it is to draft and sign your talent, and to go after the better latin players,