01/04/2005

An Arab wall has fallen

But Demonstrations "thanking" Syrian occupation troops pose the question: What role will the Hizbollah play in tomorrow's Lebanon? By Abbas Beydoun

On March 8, hundreds of thousands of Lebanese Shiites gathered in
Beirut to thank Syria before it pulled out its tanks. This seemed, at
first glance, somewhat absurd. Had not Syria's withdrawal from Lebanon been the rallying cry of previous "Cedar Revolution"
demonstrations? For weeks, the demonstrators had been demanding the
withdrawal of Syrian troops and an explanation for the murder of former
Prime Minister Rafiq Al Hariri. And then a mass demonstration for the occupying regime?

It's hard to imagine that the Syrian presence was so popular among some of the people. The head of the Hizbollah, Hassan Nasrallah,
had called for the demonstrations. The Shiites obeyed him. This
surprised the Lebanese and forced them to confront certain facts that
were becoming ever more apparent, the more forcefully they were being
suppressed.

Nobody had tried to keep the Shiites away from the
protests on the Martyr's Square. They themselves failed to join the
opposition that had formed following the assassination of Hariri.

Thus,
part of the opposition figured it would be possible to force the
Shiites to the periphery in the new equation. At first it seemed that
the new start would be possible without the Shiites. Nobody voiced the
opinion, but it's precisely what was not being said aloud in the
political debates in Lebanon that has become especially clear. Confessionalism is being practised without being named as such.

The
Shiites understood the protest against the Lebanese government and its
Syrian protector to be a provocation aimed at them. They understood
that something was suddenly in the air that was not being articulated:
the disarming of the Hizbollah, its devaluation and
disempowerment. That is the real reason why the Shiite taxi driver, who
has long since been losing business to the Syrian taxi driver,
nevertheless took to the streets for Syria. Or the Shiite farmer who
has been complaining for ages about the over-flooding of the market
with cheap Syrian agricultural produce. And the Shiite labourer who
ascribes his low wages and sometimes even his unemployment to the
Syrian presence. And the Shiite middle class citizens who repeat
incessantly how worried they are about the Syrian-Lebanese mafia, which
they blame for the sinking living standards, or the Lebanese bourgeois
who accuses the mafia of controlling investment. All of these responded
to the call of the Hizbollah to take to the streets and thank Syria.

It's extremely strange, but not irrational.
It makes sense when you realise that the Shiites believe that following
the Syrian withdrawal, the regime allied with Syria will be the next
target and with it, their position in the regime. Fearing
marginalisation, the Shiites gather under the flag of the Hizbollah.

Does
this mean they approve of the opposition? That they approve of the long
term war with Israel that is causing the Shiites in the south of
Lebanon so much misery? Do they want to insist on the presence of the
Syrian troops in Lebanon?

The answer is yes and no. It is
significant that the Shiites chose to demonstrate after the withdrawal
of the Syrian troops had already been conclusively decided. The thank
you to Syria was simply a farewell ceremony. The actual message was: we Shiites are powerful
even without Syria. The gathering of hundreds of thousands of Lebanese
under the Hizbollah flag was a warning to all those who thought it
might be time to settle their score with the Shiites, that they were
not to be messed around with. The demands of the Hizbollah and their
call for dialogue and unity were made in this context: the Hizbollah
wants to participate in the political process, and seeks an influential
role in the new government.

Who is the Hizbollah? Is it just an
armed group? At the moment, the Hizbollah represents for the Shiites a
guarantor of protection and aid. Today more than ever, the Shiites
regard the Hizbollah army as their own backbone, knowing well
that this army, combined with the Hizbollah schools, medical and social
institutions, forms a kind of state within a state. Even the critics of
Hizbollah rule consider an attack against it to be a threat to the
Shiite confession. And so they let the Hizbollah determine the slogans
under which they march. Now it's a matter of signalling to the
Hizbollah broad general support.

This is a complex power play.
Those who thank Syria don't necessarily want the Syrian troops to stay
in Lebanon. They are more interested in securing their own position.
The rallying cries are of secondary importance. It's different in the
opposition camp. For those who took to the streets after the
assassination of Hariri, the withdrawal of the Syrian troops is top
priority. This was the basis of unity for three of the four large
confessional groupings in Lebanon. In fact, it was reason enough for
them to lay down their confessional markings.

The opposition
means exactly what it says: its goal is a Lebanon without Syrian
influence. That's a promise for the future of freedom and democracy in
the region. This movement signals a departure from totalitarian
politics in Lebanon that have smothered civil life, made the state a facade and held society in checkmate with constant threats of civil war and external enemies.

Groups
with various political structures, traditions, symbols and historical
visions participated in the demonstrations. Among them were Christians,
who had to operate in the shadows during the entire period of Syrian
rule and now took their experience with them onto the streets. With
them were the Sunnites and Druses, who had cooperated with the Syrian
apparatus.

The slogan of the Christian youth from the Martyr's
Square was "Freedom, Sovereignty, Independence" with an emphasis on the
last. The slogan of those sympathetic to Hariri was "Truth, Freedom,
National Unity".

The two sides define their relationship to
the Arabic world differently. The Christians pronounce their hatred of
the Syrians, not just of the regime but also of the Syrian people. The
Muslims don't play along, for reasons of erstwhile feuds rooted partly
in former wars, partly in racist prejudices. The hope of a shared
future of peace and democracy remains the collective basis � while it
is clear that the meeting of three confessional forces represents as
great a source of power as of weakness. When such different forces must
grapple together, they have trouble mobilising their followers as well
as the Shiites - a single force - can.

There is no doubt that
the demonstrations of the Hizbollah signal a crisis. The actions of the
opposition against Syria succeeded in bringing down the Lebanese
government and accelerating the decision for the Syrian withdrawal. But
the Shiites made it clear that the opposition movement cannot determine
the next steps on its own. Everything to happen in the future should
involve their participation. This would be unthinkable, however, if the
status of the Hizbollah were not also put on the political agenda
following the Syrian withdrawal.

The Hizbollah's privileges,
weapons, opposition and control of their own regions are the problem.
It is not yet clear whether these can be negotiated. Speaking against
their negotiability is the double nature of the Hizbollah, which is
distinct from other fundamentalist organisations. It is purely
Lebanese, rejects an international expansion of its organisation and
agitation and confines itself to the conflict with Israel.

Hassan
Nasrallah, the Hizbollah leader, is not bin Laden. He is a public
authority figure with a locally rooted political program and real
political power, thanks to his broad base of popular support. Disarming
is a path whose end nobody can foresee. And Nasrallah does not seem to
be in a hurry to commit himself to anything along this path.

The
inner-Lebanese negotiations are going to be difficult. Nobody knows
whether the Hizbollah will accept a guarantee of security other than
weapons, or whether Lebanese society, in other words the opposition
forces, would be ready to offer this guarantee. This results in a
certain political rigidity. Added to this is the fact that the results
of the negotiations have to be valid for an entire era.

While
the Hizbollah demonstrations unfortunately weaken the enormous
significance of the Lebanese movement, they will not constrain its
force forever. The steps which led to an acceleration of the Syrian
withdrawal are a success for the first mass movement in a region that
has been burdened by totalitarianism and hereditary rule. This is the
first sign of a return to life for the people, the first hint
of an alternative to the ailing regime, which has only been kept alive
by the lethargy of society and a lack of alternatives.

The
success of the Lebanese democracy movement is certain to infect the
Arabic world and mobilise frightened Arabic peoples elsewhere. The wall has fallen, and the way towards defeating totalitarianism and entering the world of the present has been set free.

Abbas
Beydoun, Lebanese poet, born in 1945, is one of the most influential
intellectuals of the Arabic world. He has published 11 volumes of
poetry since the 1980s. Many have been translated into several
languages (French, German, English, Spanish, Catalan and Italian).
Beydoun is the feuilleton editor of the daily newspaper As-Safir, published in Beirut.

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