Odds Improve for GOP Takeover of Congress in 2012

By

Peter Brown

Feb 23, 2011 1:30 pm ET

Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, is a former White House correspondent with two decades of experience covering Washington government and politics. Click here for Mr. Brown’s full bio.

Whether President Barack Obama is re-elected or not in 2012, at this point the odds are quite good that his Democratic Party will lose control of the U.S. Senate and the Republicans will retain the House of Representatives.

The U.S. Capitol (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)

In the Senate, the Democrats will be defending more than twice as many seats (including the two held by independents who generally vote with the Democrats) than Republicans next year.

Moreover many of the 23 Democratic seats are in traditional “red states” in the South, the heartland and the Intermountain West where Democrats often find themselves facing unfriendly electorates.

Conversely, it is difficult to find many Republicans outside of Massachusetts’ Scott Brown who are in states where they have to buck the dominant political tide.

There may be some GOP incumbents who will face tough primary fights, but these contests are most likely to occur in GOP bastions where the eventual Republican nominee – whether incumbent or challenger – will find themselves the big favorite in November.

One exception might be Maine, if Sen. Olympia Snowe were to lose a primary. In addition, Nevada’s Republican seat might be vulnerable, although probably less so if scandal-plagued Sen. John Ensign does not run or loses a certain primary challenge.