ADP report shows 217K private-sector jobs added in February

posted at 2:55 pm on March 2, 2011 by Ed Morrissey

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its unemployment data for February on Friday, but one early — if not totally reliable — indicator comes from ADP, the payroll-management firm. Each month, they release their analysis of private-sector job growth a day or two ahead of the BLS, giving a sneak peek at government figures and an opportunity for analysts and investors to hone their predictions. This month, the news looks good:

Private-sector employment increased by 217,000 from January to February on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the latest ADP National Employment Report® released today. The estimated change of employment from December 2010 to January 2011 was revised up to 189,000 from the previously reported increase of 187,000.

This month’s ADP National Employment Report suggests continued solid growth of nonfarm private employment early in 2011. The recent pattern of rising employment gains since the middle of last year was reinforced by today’s report, as the average gain from December through February (217,000) is well above the average gain over the prior six months (63,000).

Unfortunately, the ADP report often shoots far higher than actual outcomes. In part, this is because ADP does not measure government employment, so job losses in the public sector don’t get factored into their results. However, that doesn’t explain all of the disconnect between ADP’s recent analyses and the overall BLS figures. For instance, ADP predicted a gain of 297,000 private-sector jobs in December that ended up being a weak 103K. Their January estimate of 189,000 added private-sector jobs ended up overshooting the eventual BLS result of 36,000 added jobs overall.

If this is close to reality, though, it will be good news indeed. But what do other early predictors say? Gallup, for instance, is much more pessimistic. Their survey has shown a flat line on job growth, and now puts unemployment at 10.3%. The survey also has combined unemployment and underemployment at 19.9%, both of which are largely unchanged over the last 13 months.

I’d expect the economy to have added a keep-pace number of jobs overall in Friday’s numbers, perhaps 110,000, but that the BLS jobless rate will go up slightly to 9.2%. We seem to be stagnating at the same level as 2010 for the most part.

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Comments

I’d expect the economy to have added a keep-pace number of jobs overall in Friday’s numbers, perhaps 110,000, but that the BLS jobless rate will go up slightly to 9.2%. We seem to be stagnating at the same level as 2010 for the most part.

Nah, even if the economy adds only 50,000 jobs, the unemployment rate could take another 0.4% dip. At this point, they’re blatantly manipulating it.

For instance, ADP predicted a gain of 297,000 private-sector jobs in December that ended up being a weak 103K. Their January estimate of 189,000 added private-sector jobs ended up overshooting the eventual BLS result of 36,000 added jobs overall.

Gallup, for instance, is much more pessimistic. Their survey has shown a flat line on job growth, and now puts unemployment at 10.3%. The survey also has combined unemployment and underemployment at 19.9%, both of which are largely unchanged over the last 13 months.

Some great 2012 election campaign material in there. Combine that with $6.00/gal gas, an over the cliff debt, comical foreign policy; there has to be some light at the end of the tunnel.

You can see what bho and team are doing and will do till the 2012 election. Jobs, jobs, and more jobs! They will do the fuzzy math so they look as wonderful as possible. The sad fact, most people will believe this and think more money needs to be taken from us to see to it the jobs continue to do the fuzzy math thing.
L

Well as for me, I’m gonna use the leftist playbook and give full credit to the new republican house majority!!! It was everything they did that caused this unexpected gain in American jobs!!! Of course, I must also note that had those same leftists not been trying to obstruct everything this wonderful new house majority was trying to do, the gains would have been double!!! Triple even!!!eleventy!!!

We need NET job creation of at least 180,000 per month to keep pace with the new net entries to the labor force. Anything less is a net loss.

But this doesn’t always show up in the RATE, because those who have exhausted unemployment benefits and stopped their job searches are considered “discouraged workers” and not counted as unemployed. These are mostly aged 50+, who turn to using their savings to survive until they reach retirement age.

The traditional DW% ranged from 1.3 – 1.8% of the work force since the stat was first kept in the Reagan years. Check out what it is now.