So what happens in 30 years, when EU, Russia and China are burdened with swarms of old folks and very few taxpayers? I guess all mentioned economies fail, public services go to level of today's Etrirea, military capabilities are eroded beyond funny and we have three decedes of world economic depression due to three major world markets collapsing.

>>269909China is going full damage control about this now, but it is pretty much a lost cause.It will probably open up the possibility of a few emerging markets to rise in importance even more, Brazil, India and the asian tigers come to mind.But a demographic crisis is certain.

Yes, we're supposed to import millions of africans and middle-easterners to work for our old people. But it's not a replacement at all, besides europe's history is full of migrations and there's no autochthons.

>>269927> China is going full damage control about this now, but it is pretty much a lost causeWhat if every han and their mother (as long as she's still fertile) make a second child now that they have the right ?

>>269909>So what happens in 30 years, when EU, Russia and China are burdened with swarms of old folks and very few taxpayersThey will find ways to make people work more, That, or like in portugal, subsidize couples who have kids. Another option is importing young workforce, which is a problem by itself now

>>269909You know as much as people talk about America being at the end of her empire it is really funny that we are one the few powers right now with a stable demographic future. We do immigration right.

>>270052Importing young people ad infinitum is a retarded idea. Europe's population isn't growing because it's too expensive to have children and it's too expensive to have children because it's overpopulated.

>Help, housing and food is so expensive most of our young people can't afford to raise children anymore!>Good. Pump in more people. That should solve it.

>>270004Too late now.It would take 15 to 20 years for that have any mensurable effect.And it wouldn't even fix all the demographic problems that the single child policy created, right now, China has a considerable larger number of males than females thanks to it.China has fucked its demographic so hard because of this, there isn't any possible recovery fast enough to prevent the economic crisis it is going to cause.They should have stopped the single child policy much sooner.

>>270264When you take America with 320 million or, lets say, Brazil with 220 million. 5% isn't really that much.But when you get China's 1.3 billion, it starts to make a difference.Especially considering there is a lot of evidence to show that the bigger the excess of men in comparison to women, the bigger are the crime rates, violent or not, also alcoholism and drug abuse increase.Also, it is considerable that a lot of these men will never have children, and every women would only have one children, who would mostly likely be male, now with the single child policy gone, this will change, but it won't be too drastic a change, it will probably only be felt on the second or third generation from now.

>>270141They don't have time because they don't even own the small apartment they are living in.

It's not about the destruction of the nuclear family -somewhat due to over taxation, but because the modern economy is extremely competitive. You can't afford to take a break in your career because that would end your career since there's a thousand other candidates waiting to take your place. Housing is so expensive because there's more people than the infrastructure can accommodate and of course skyrocketing property values.

>>270206>China has a considerable larger number of males than females thanks to it.I don't see how that matters. According to most evolutionary psychology studies only around 30% of males compared to 80% of females throughout history have reproduced anyway. Your male population is basically irrelevant for determining the next generation.

>>270321Considering that the number of women in China is decreasing right now, and would continue to if China never changed to the two child policy, it would start to be alarming.It is also been proven that an excess of males isn't healthy for a society.

>>270386How the fuck you think you can justify that last statement is beyond me..

So you have less jobs for your working class and somehow after being freed up from industry jobs they are now incapable of 1? In some fucked up twist of logic you imagine unemployment in the lower classes being solved by importing more lower class people to fill the few jobs that remain.

Innovation has historically been achieved by engineers and scientists educated at the best schools so again 2) is best met by Americans and Europeans themselves who continue to produce the most patents per capita by orders retaliative to third and second world countries with no innovation.

>>270421Read the OP m8, this thread is about a rapidly shrinking population in the western world. If this wasn't the case immigration could indeed be a problem.

I can only talk from a European perspective:

to 1) Compared to America and the rest of the world native Europeans in retail and other service industries are extremely unfriendly and rarely ever do more than what is explicitly asked for. Immigrant workers in these industries tend to be more friendly and don't have that sense of entitlement.

to 2) Of course education is important. However, even more important is an entrepreneurial spirit which at least in Europe barely exists among the natives. Second generation immigrants are usually the most innovative, look at any IT startup here. For example Crytek is almost exklusively Turks.

>>270464>to America and the rest of the world native Europeans in retail and other service industries are extremely unfriendly and rarely ever do more than what is explicitly asked for. Immigrant workers in these industries tend to be more friendly and don't have that sense of entitlement.

> 2) Of course education is important. However, even more important is an entrepreneurial spirit which at least in Europe barely exists among the natives. Second generation immigrants are usually the most innovative, look at any IT startup here. For example Crytek is almost exklusively Turks.

>>270464>Immigrant workers in these industries tend to be more friendly and don't have that sense of entitlement.1/4 of Immigrant "workers" stay at home, leech of welfare and are a net drain on society by claiming benefits, increasing living costs, creating massive lines for housing, medical services, education, etc.

That's without bringing up the increase in crime and judicial costs as a result of crime. They are the most entitled strata in society.

>>270498>>270524I gave you a cultural explanation and you're throwing around labor force participation or unemployment rates. There are many reasons why immigrants tend to be single earner households and Scandinavians certainly are an extreme case of the opposite.

Also I'm not defending the way Europe allows migration directly into the social systems, but the solution isn't "less migration". It may not be good for the average tax payer but the rich certainly do profit from immigration for above mentioned reasons.

>>270539>I gave you a cultural explanationBased on absolutely nothing at all except your feelgood wish of how immigrants are somehow more polite or better than natives which is just not true unless you consider "polite" and "friendly" to have a 10x times higher chance of being robed, murder or raped in immigrant neighbourhoods.

>>269909>30 yearsDude, you are too optimistic.Dependency ratios are on the dangerous end of changing *now*.>EU, Russia, and ChinaTry - the EU, all of Asia, all of North Africa, and the entire Western HemisphereOh - and the Second Demographic Transition is *well* underway in Sub-Saharan Africa, too, so... yeah.Hell, one of the elements behind the Recession was the lack of young families buying homes!>What will it look likehere are some guesses1) Land will decline in value, over all2) Markets will have to dramatically shift focus to models based on a *shrinking* consumer base and decades of *contraction*3) labor costs, especially for skilled trades, will go UP4) The exception to 3 will be low-end tech jobs, which automation will eliminate5) Welfare systems will have to be stripped down harshly or eliminated6) Commodity prices will drop for decadesThe hilarious thing are all the people thinking A) 'Immigration will save us! We'll import workers!"orB) "Immigration will destroy us! We'll be swamped!"Both are fools - birth rates are down and dropping hard EVERYWHERE. The migrant crises? Pfffft. So fucking what? They are coming from nations with TFRs barely above the EU and their children will have the same TFR as their French, etc. neighbors (i.e., not much of one).By 2100 the population of the entire planet might be as low as 3 billion, less than half of today>demographic momentum is a harsh mistressHell, I know a demographer that points to Italy, South China, and northern Japan and argues we *might* see a 2100 of just 1.5 billion people, 90% of whom are devout Catholics, Orthodox, and a smattering or Orthodox Jews and Mormons.The future is going to be full of empty cities

>>270710It's a buffet of predictions. Pick what suits your intuition. To be fair his prediction of a new Cold War and Russian territorial expansion into Eastern Europe is pretty much on the money so far (it was written just under a decade ago).

>>270206>>270264>>270321Demographic Momentum - regardless of the number of men, TFR/demographic momentum is based on the number of women because 1) Only women can have children2) Female fertility has a time limitThere are so few women in the 'fertile cohort' that even if they went Full Catholic it would take 3-5 generations to get back to where they need to beChina gambled on getting rich before they got old.China lost

>>270739sub-saharan Africa is what professional demographers call 'fucking Hell'.Here's an example - the CIA world fact book and UN listed their TFR as 9 all through 2000-20013That is fucking huge.Then a bunch of field researchers said 'wait a minute - that's not possible. We are counting children born in hospital and, well - no'So they looked again and then Niger *fought them* to keep the official TFR *HIGH*.Why?The UN, etc. base a lot of developmental and medical aid based on TFRs so poor African nations artificially inflate it to get more cash.The 'official' TFR of Niger is 7.0The one reported by the CIA is 6.0 (their 'public estimate' is 6.5, if I remember correctly)Best guess at the real TFR?Maybe 4.0sub-Saharan Africa is in the midst of the Demographic Transition that hit the rest of the world. South Africa and a number of other nations have close-to, at-, or even below-replacement TFRs already and continent wide TFRs are falling>The articles about 'stalled transition' are usually based on the official numbers given to aid agenciesIt is akin to the warning >Iran is going to grow tremendously in the enxt generation!Yeah - demographic momentum. But their TFR has sucked for too long - the population will crash right after.Right now Japan in the lead car at the top of the hill in a roller coaster about to plunge over the edge and go screaming down. Niger is just the last car - still ascending, but about to plunge, too

Not to mention that automation will make fuck ton of jobs simply obsolete in near future, even in highly trained professions as AI beats human doctors or lawyers. Outsourced jobs are starting to come back 1st world... it's just that those aren't jobs anymore.

>>270894No - the point was the official report of the number of children born in hospital was 3x-4x the reality. UNICEF teams in remote villages would report the number of children they were meeting and it would be 1/2-1/5th the official estimates of the number of children in that village.So unless there are a shit-ton of infants being born in the bush and hidden from view, the TFR is lower than the official estimate.

>>270909Well, I actually in rural (South) African areas and almost every family here has 9-12 children. Fucking hell most teenagers have more than 2 before they turn 18.

I haven't seen the UNICEF report, but 9 sounds completely reasonable. I don't know what the true numbers, but I doubt any official sources can cover all billion people on this continent either, but there's no reason it can't be that high.

>>271159Japan is a glimpse into the future. The countryside is littered with near ghost towns due to the massive scale of urbanisation, and now even some cities have ever increasing pockets of dilapidated and abandoned housing. Japan's popuation has only just plateaued and is about to decline steeply. The question is whether or not it will ever stabilise.

>>271189I don't think a decreasing population is a bad thing really. I just worry about the effects on the economy in the current system. And of course the impact on my retirement if I get to that point.

>>271189Japan is an abnormality, it's the size of California but has more than 1/3 of the US population. Their population explosion was immense, more than doubling in 100 years despite losing millions in a war and almost a complete absence of large scale immigration.

It's going back to "normal" if anything and is not comparable with Europe at all.

>>270690Immigrations' positive or adverse affects in the next 20 to 50 years are what matters most when making policies you cunt. "Oh but in a 100 years from now it won't matter"Well neither will your life so why not off yourself?

Oh and if you haven't checked, immigrants have far greater fertility rates, which only drop IF they assimilate. Third worlder here, you're not getting the middle class non-breeding fags but rather the ghetto-loving zerg-rushing hordes.

>>271146>>271156>>271182Translation>"I don't know how demographic momentum works, I have no concept of how the media, etc. use the totally unrealistic 'max' estimates, and I can't be fucked to look any of this shit up"FFS, even the UNITED NATIONS states that world population will be no more than 6 billion in 2100!

>>271234>Their population explosion was immense, more than doubling in 100 years despite losing millions in a war and almost a complete absence of large scale immigration.Lol, you think that's immense?

Egypt's population has grown from 3 million in the early 1800s to almost 90 million today.

>>271484Trends change.By 2100 we could have more efficient types of living spaces, food production, energy production and even of child bearing and rearing that make it a possibility to grow even past our currently visible limit.

>>271364translation>"I can't read"TFR of iran?below replacementTFR of India?Just above replacement and droppingThe Population growth analysis of the EU showed that even among high TFR immigrants, like Syrians (a TFR of a whopping THREE!!!!11!) their daughters already born as they arrived had a TFR of 2.2 and their native-born daughters had a TFR of 1.4So, in short - you're badly wrong.WITH higher TFRs in generation 1 and generation 1.5 and WITH the level of immigration the immigrant/immigrant descended population of Europe will "approach 10$ around the year 2075, and then decline unless there is a unforseen fertility change that cannot be predicted"That's right, even with the Migrant Crisis in 50-60 years the 'zerg rush' might, MIGHT reach 10%Read a fucking book, would ya'?

>>271501>trends changeListen, the match is really fucking clear. It is unstoppable. Why?It's fucking math.Let me give you an example>Generation 1: Population 200; 100 women of child bearing age, TFR of 1.5 [that's Lebanon, Albania, and higher than most of Europe *and most of Asia*)>Generation 2: Population 350 [gen 1 + gen 2]; 75 women of child bearing age; TFR of 1.5>Generation 3: Population 425 [OMG! The growth! THE GROWTH!] [gens 1, 2, and 3]; 56 women of childbearing age>"Hey! Fertility has been low for a few decades. Nah, let's worry about THAT GROWTH!!">Generation 4: 462 (1/2 of gen 1 and gens 2, 3, and 4); 42 women of childbearing age>NOTE: we are about here. This is where the split beginsmore

>>271618>>271640>let me pull shit out of my ass some more>why would anyone sane look at actual sources or the actual numbers being provided here>I'll just make up my own numbers and exclude everyone that contradicts me>I don't even know what I'm talking about

>>271618Trends change>Generation 5: population 334; 32 women of child bearing age, *TFR leaps to 3!*>Generation 6: Population 304; 48 women of child bearing ageEven if you magically doubled fertility the decline would still last.And so far the the post Second Demographic Transition period once TFRs drop to 1.8 or so no one can increase fertility to replacement (2.1) let alone to 3. If, *IF*the world suddenly went to replacement fertility in all areas and stayed there we'd still have population decline.

>>271640I recently checked my county's demographics. 5% of the population are females between 20 and 30, and there's 125 males per 100 females in that age bracket. The average age is about 50. And that's typical for my state.Now ten thousands of uneducated male young Muslims flood into this to fix the mess, or so the government claims.

>>269909Don't worry, the liberal traitors in charge who have left this trend to fate or celebrate it will be hanged any moment now. Any producer who has perpetuated the myth that modern civilized families consist of two kids and two homosexual parents will answer for his crimes against the nation. The holy anti-liberal alliance of communists (real ones, not Reddit liberals) and fascists will implement sufficient pro-family policy that has historically been proven effective.

>>271647Keep posting that graphic, genius.Tell me again how the declining fertility in Africa will magically overcome 40 years of sub-replacement fertility in Europe and Asia, 30 years of sub-replacement in North Africa and South American, and 20 years of sub-replacement in North America?Did you even know what TFR means until you googled that image, you moron?Did you know that in much of Africa a TFR of 3.0 is just replacement level?You didn't?Are yyou aware that because of sex-selective abortion in India their TFR needs to be 3.4 to be at replacement, when combined with their mortality rate?You didn't?That's right, you mook - China and India are facing inevitable population decline IN OUR LIFETIME.do you really think a TFR of 6 in Niger (population 17 million, or 1 million less than the CITY of Cairo and not close to freaking New Delhi) is going to offset the reduction of population in either one of those nations when Niger has a mortality rate of Fuck You?China is going to lose the equivalent of the entire population of the most fertile sub-Saharan nation *every five fucking years* between 2025 and 2050.>b-b-but muh overpopulationDemographers, real ones, were projecting inevitable population decline beginning no later than 2050 in 1970, if you paid attention.

>>271681repeat after me-every ten years the UN releases a population growth estimate; it is updated every 5-Every estimate and every update *ever* and done the followingA) reduced the estimate of growthB) reduced the estimate for peak populationC)projected peak population coming soonerD) projected population decline beginning soonerE) projected population decline to be more rapid.Every fucking time. The actual population in 2000 was well under the "low" projection of 1980.Guess what? the 2015 UN population projection calls for the population in 2100 to be 6 billion.

>>271724it does not matter that the population of such or such country decreases when the country can bait foreigners into settling in. immigration will make those soon declining country as happy as they are now.

>>271751How many foreigners do you plan to bait when most European societies have already reached 1/3 in comparison to the hosts? Don't forget the wide range of social problems that it has created and will continue to create.

>>271751*sigh*Where the fuck are those immigrants going to come FROM?The Middle East?No; their fertility is below replacement or close and/or dropping like a rockAsia?No, their fertility is below replacement and has been (thus, China is freaking out)The Western hemisphere?No, same reasonNorth Africa?Nosub-saharan Africa?Sure - for a generation or two, maybe.But lots of that region is at or below replacement already and the ones with high fertility are lightly populated, comparatively.Oh, and THEIR fertility is in decline, too!Besides, even if, do you think Niger, Mali, etc. are going to generate enough people to staff Europe, Asia, Oceania, and the Western Hemisphere?!

Look, retard, there's no point in discussing with you. You're writing like a 13 year old, claim the UN says the same, and then ignore actual UN reports >>271553, you ignore a fucking population pyramid >>271553 and actual fertility rates >>271647

>>271750>Guess what? the 2015 UN population projection calls for the population in 2100 to be 6 billion.>WATCH ME MAKE UP MORE SHIT AHAHA FEED ME DICKS

The actual 2015 population projection is right HERE >>271536http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/publications/files/key_findings_wpp_2015.pdf

>>271770Sure. I mean, it isn't the end of the world. Heck, as the population decline *people will be a lot better off*.Think about it - your labor is worth more, commodities and land are cheaper, etc.If you are among the very few that have great-grand children, they'll be set!

>>271786>Capitalism destroying the traditional family by forcing females to engage full time in the market>Cost of children>A big portion of society has problems settling down against their will especially those crazy Japs>Pure Ideology. If you ask people they will only want 1-2 kids just because and anything more is for rednecks and societies with high birthrates are backwards.>Parading various non-reproductive lifestyles

>>269927Why do I keep hearing wildly conflicting theories about China? Some people say they're going to surpass the United States to become a new world power, and some say they're going to completely collapse. Is there any consensus among experts?

>Next time? Don't link to the media kit's summary for reporters.You don't like the actual report though, no, instead you focus on some wild-bat "low" estimates that show a population decrease despite the population increasing.

Not only that but you claim this the UN "low" estimate (pop decrease) has been a little high compared to reality when the reality is the population has been growing for the past 100 years so never at any point was there a population decrease. Then you go onwards and start making up shit like the middle east having below replacement levels.

>>271795That is the summary for the media kit, kid.Read the full report and keep in mind that the UN's "low" estimate has traditionally been the most accurate.Of, look at the full report on population to 2300, the summaries of which are posted here>>271829The excellent book "beyond six billion" categorizes the errors and shows the trend for the UN to over-estimation in both fertility and growth very well, and it is 15 years old. Several studies have been done since, showing the same things.The book 'Shall the Religious Inherit the Earth?' by a secular demographer has the most accurate numbers available, probably

>>271864Basically because China has massive amounts of state interference on big, top heavy projects, such as population management.

In contrast to say, India, where literally no on on earth knows what the fuck is going on, and therefor has muddling, baseline performance in most fields. They could do a lot better, but they're not fucking up catastrophically.

China, on the otherhand, is a very planned socieity. In some ways, more then any of the totalitarian states of the 20th century, because of the tools at their disposal.

Demography is an example of this, because we're seeing a huge population collapse, after a huge population expansion, both planned by the central government.

So basically, you estimate comes down to how well you think the Chinese Government can and does know how to plan a society. If you think they can and do, you're likely to think they'll wildly succeed.

If you think they can't or don't, you're waiting for them to fuck up so badly.

China is a society of extremes, so the only thing that the experts can agree upon is that the predictions can't meet in the middle.

>>271890>the population has been growing for the past 100 years so never at any point was there a population decrease.translation>it will always be like it was, forever and ever>making up shit like the middle east having below replacement levels.Now you're just lying - what I said was>their fertility is below replacement or close and/or dropping like a rockA number of Middle Eastern nations are below replacement, especially with their mortalityThe rest are close and dropping OR dropping fast.I mean, your reading comprehension is obviously terrible and you use the emotions rather than logic, but COME ONE!

>>271890The way I see it, you're both just playing fuck games with statistics. Data do not speak for themselves. You're both talking about topics that the best demographers in the world still aren't sure of.Also, some countries in the "Middle East" as you people like to call it, do have below replacement levels.

>>271864>Why do I keep hearing wildly conflicting theories about China?It depends on what kind of data they're looking at. Official statistics from the Beijing party office say >they're going to surpass the United States to become a new world powerOfficial statistics of individual key factors, that are mentioned somewhere on page 2342 of a report, where nobody reads more than the summary, coupled with an understanding of how the Chinese economy and political class operate, coupled with actually looking at China inside of China usually lead to>they're going to completely collapse

The second is usually better backed, better argued and describes what's actually happening. The first is what you read in major news outlets that have strict deadlines and don't give a fuck about the truth so much as about being cost effective and putting out a volume of fluff articles to keep their readers busy.

>says to look at the UN reports for proof>look at the UN reports>they prove him wrong>says those UN reports are wrong now

Also, kek at you trying to imply anything about reading comprehension when the format of your post is that of a 12 year old WoW enthusiasts on blizzard forums.

>>271944I'm literally looking at reports and actual statistics, he's being full of shit an making them up on the spot or drawing his own conclusions and ignoring the conclusions drawn by actual people working on these statistics and reports.

He's using reports to prove himself right and at the same time calling the very same reports faulty.

Isn't it fun to just find data that fits some goofy theory and then use that data to "prove" the crazy theory? Isn't this what every government does? Aren't humans all delusional? How long will the madness go on?

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