* crackofdawn_Jr: Innocent / BFF (Nick) -- Could talk to his BFF, and died because his BFF died [similar to that of the Lovers roles] ... He was also targeted by the Vigilante / Died on Night Phase 2

* ToastOfDestiny: Innocent / LONER (Scott) -- Like the Vigilante, he could kill someone at night / Killed by the Mafia on Night Phase 2

NOTES

* BigMac is playing in the game again.* Note that Ragnar_Rahl is back, alive and well.* A few players dropped out, so I might replace them with Mongeese, ToastOfDestiny and crackofdawn_Jr in the next day phase along with anyone else I feel needs to be replaced based on inactivity.

QBBrad8: What? Why would she be on to you? I thought you were one of the safe ones!

YankeesFan2009: So did I. I thought after what happened yesterday that she'd be too busy keeping tabs on Owen to suspect me. He's the REAL screw up.

QBBrad8: Great. Everything was going perfect until last night. I thought I told you to watch your step! People are really starting to pay attention. Jamie broke into the school last night and told me that she saw Jared tinkering around on the main computer. Do you think he's onto us? You know he's good with computers. He could have broken in and seen our messages to each other! Fu<k! This is NOT good.

YankeesFan2009: Relax. I don't think Jared is smart enough to go and do something like that. He was probably just snooping around; I doubt he came up with anything. Anyway the damage has already been done. All we can do at this point is stall and buy some time. I have faith in the stupidity of humanity. I mean the same thing happened last time.

Oh, and it looks like the Cop has also spotted *another* mafia from the story line. So, cop can either reveal this and we can have the doctor spot him - or cop can reveal tomorrow (but we risk a random lynch of the cop by the mafia). Either way, we have two mafia in our grasp at the moment, town. One who is obviously WJMELEMENTS.

Keep in mind that the chances of a random nightkill of the cop are more or less 1/14 (assuming 7 mafia, a good safe number). Given that as a confirmed townie I am protectable by doc until cop reveals, this means if he reveals now with the knowledge of the apparently "obvious" wjm in addition to one other mafia (the only one who should count for purposes of our calculations, considering how he can most likely be roleblocked if he does (and is therefore likely useless from that point), this means we get a base expected value of knowledge of the following amount of actors

Obviously, this needs to be adjusted every time we get a lynch (quicken it each time a townie is lynched, slow it down each time a mafia), though it takes into account nightkills, and if we end up trying to lynch a cop obviously he should reveal anyway. But that's the base formula for rational expectations from each possible day we could reveal on.

It came to be at its height. It was commanded to command. It was a capital before its first stone was laid. It was a monument to the spirit of man.

At 9/9/2009 9:06:38 AM, MTGandP wrote:Are we even allowed to vote based on out-of-game information? That feels like cheating.

Cheating would be out of thread discussion by parties not privy to PMs with other players. However, if a mafia member were careless enough to let someone see their role blatantly displayed on their computer, then how could I prohibit mongoose from using that against him? Even if I didn't allow him to post it in the thread, he would have been privy to that information therefore making him biased. So, when he asked me if he could post some information he'd come across in the thread, I agreed (as I don't see it as violating any of the rules). It's up to everyone else whether or not they choose to believe him or utilize that information. For instance, Vi could say "I looked over Danielle's shoulder and saw that X and X were mafia. Lynch them!" You could choose to believe her or not. Anyone could say anything, really.

Oh, my bad. I thought you were just being annoying by claiming that his vote didn't count because he forgot to bold "I". I forgot about the politician. Not to mention that WJM is practically confirmed mafia while I am at least somewhat cleared.

JBlake also exclaimed "Off with his head." I don't see "too eager" as we are all eager to get him (the votes have come in rather swiftly). WJM is practically confirmed - if he isn't mafia, then we know who to lynch next day phase. Also, take a good look at the story: One of the characters is really hoping on human stupidity. This would seem the case if we don't lynch WJM.

In addition, we know at least one mafia member via the cop - and JBlake claims that his role lets him investigate 2 players. I hope you don't mind if I ask, JBlake, what is your role exactly? If you have already used it (and it's useless now), then it wouldn't matter if you tell us. So, JBlake, what is your investigative role?