Monthly Archives: October 2014

Defense One is out with a piece that pushes the efforts of the US Air Force in standing besides the US Army in the Ebola mission in Africa….

1. The U.S. Air Force is the backbone of the anti-Ebola effort. From the outset of Operation United Assistance on September 17 to October 21, Air Mobility Command (the U.S. military’s worldwide airlift system, commanded by General Darren McDew) flew 208 sorties in support of operations, transporting 1,989 short tons of cargo and 595 passengers. This provided the logistical foundation for the entire mission.

2. Airmen are building bases and getting their hands dirty right alongside the Army. There are over 200 Airmen on the ground—roughly one quarter of the United States’ total 880 troops currently deployed to West Africa. These Airmen are civil engineers, logisticians, and operational coordinators, engaging in a wide range of tasks. They are assessing sites for temporary air bases and pitching in with the building.

3. Airmen are providing medical support, too. The Air Force’s Expeditionary Medical Support System (EMEDS) are devoting critical in-house talent to Operation United Assistance’s medical mission set. The Air Force’s 633rd Medical Group completed deployment of a modular hospital in Liberia on October 20—the first deployment of a facility of its kind. This hospital will be used to train crucial emergency care responders…

Because the polls are coming fast and furious, we are putting in our only Friday PM roundup of the year. We may also have update post(s) over the weekend if poll volume and traffic warrant it and our schedule complies.

Senate:

GA-Sen, GA-Gov: Landmark, which has been the most D-friendly pollster in GA this year, puts David Perdue (R) up on Michelle Nunn (D) for Senate 47-46, and Gov. Nathan Deal (R) up on Jason Carter (D) 48-46.

IA-Sen, IA-Gov: Reuters has the Senate race between State Sen. Joni Ernst (R) and Rep. Bruce Braley (D) tied at 45, while Gov. Terry Branstad (R) posts a 57-34 lead over State Sen. Jack Hatch (D).

For about a week now, New York and New Jersey have been facing a barrage of criticism over the quarantine policies they announced for travelers returning from Ebola-stricken nations. Critics, including relief groups, warned that imposing mandatory, 21-day quarantines for anyone who may have been exposed to the virus would discourage desperately needed healthcare and aid workers from going to West Africa. The case of nurse Kaci Hickox, the first to be quarantined in New Jersey, has only fueled the concerns. If you or someone you know hopes to fly into the New York City or New Jersey area from Liberia, Guinea or Sierra Leone, here’s some guidance on what to expect when arriving at JFK and Newark Liberty:

What kind of screening will I be subjected to at each airport?

At both JFK and Newark, you’ll first be screened by U.S. Customs and Border Protection staff, who will inquire about whether you’ve visited countries affected by Ebola. They will also request that you complete a questionnaire and your temperature will be taken.

What will happen next? If I have a case of the sniffles, am I going to be quarantined immediately?

At both JFK and Newark airports, that depends on which category you’re placed in during your screening….

Convicted killer Nikko Jenkins offered his take on the race in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District at a hearing to determine his mental status Wednesday.Jenkins, 28, shouted “Hey you guys, vote for Lee Terry! Best Republican ever!”

The NRCC, of course, aired an infamous, Willie Horton-esque ad that accused Democrat Brad Ashford of wanting to release Jenkins from prison earlier. The ad received national criticism and Democrats demanded it be taken off the air, but both Terry and the NRCC stood behind it. Talk about getting what you deserve. Best Republican ever!

Millions of voters will cast ballots before Election Day, and this year The Upshot is tracking the returns in three states that could determine which party controls the Senate.

We’ll be updating this page every day until the election.

It can be difficult to interpret the flood of early voting returns. The biggest problem is what some political analysts call “cannibalizing” votes: It’s hard to know whether early voters would have voted on Election Day anyway, or if they’re the marginal, unreliable voters that the two parties are hoping to turn out to bolster their chances.

We are tracking whether early voters participated in the 2010 election in Colorado, North Carolina and Georgia.

The data is based on voter registration, vote history and absentee data files from the Colorado and Georgia Secretary of State, and the North Carolina Board of Elections…..

North Carolina
Through Oct. 30, 877,505 voters had cast ballots in North Carolina, or nearly 33 percent of the total votes cast in the 2010 midterm elections….

Colorado
Through noon on Oct. 30, 1,061,788 voters had submitted mail-in ballots, or about 60 percent of the total vote from 2010.

Georgia
Through Oct. 29, 709,255 voters had already cast ballots in Georgia, or nearly 28 percent of the number of voters from the 2010 midterm elections

That move would have actually given him LESS responsibility within the organization….

He had argued for more…But Police Commissioner Bill Bratton was reluctant to give him more ….

So he has ‘put his papers in’…

A Hispanic Chief left the department a little while ago after he felt he had hit the highest point he could go with Bratton….

All of this has caused New York City mayor deBlasio a headache in that he campaigned and won his job on a liberal base, that was majority minority…..

He now has none of that in the cities police department ‘s higher ups….

The NYPD’s chief of department abruptly quit Friday morning, sparking an emergency meeting with Mayor de Blasio and Police Commissioner Bratton that failed to reverse the move, sources told The Post.

Bratton said Philip Banks caught him by surprise when he resigned this morning at 8:30 a.m.
“He came in and indicated that after careful consideration and discussion with his family he was going to respectfully not accept the promotion and instead submit his resignation,” Bratton said at a press conference Friday.

Banks confirmed his resignation to The Post, and said he has no plans to take a job outside of New York City. A replacement has not been announced yet.

“He indicated that it was a personal decision as much as professional,” Bratton said. “And I will certainly wish him well as he contemplates what his next endeavors are.”

Banks’ resignation would leave the NYPD without a minority in any of its top three positions.
Banks had been set to be promoted Monday to first deputy commissioner — the number two job in the department — but clashed with Bratton because he wanted more responsibilities than were given to outgoing First Deputy Rafael Pineiro, according to law-enforcement sources.

But Bratton said he had planned to give Banks more responsibilities when he took on the “second most powerful position in the police department.”

In action I have though was the essential party of Ms. Hickox’s argument ( and I though valid), the judge has granted a 24 hour VOLUNTARY hold…But has dismissed the Maine Governors right to ORDER the nurse quarantined….

The reason?

She was NEVER infected in the first place….

A Maine judge has rejected a bid by state health officials to restrict the movement of nurse Kaci Hickox, who defied a quarantine for medical workers who have treated Ebola patients.

Judge Charles C. LaVerdiere ruled Friday that she should continue daily monitoring and coordinate travel with state officials so monitoring can continue. But, because she’s not showing symptoms, the judge says she’s not infectious.

The state went to court Thursday to impose restrictions until the 21-day incubation period for Ebola ends on Nov. 10.

A judge in Maine has granted a request by state health officials to temporarily restrict the movement of Kaci Hickox, the nurse who has defied a 21-day quarantine after she returned from treating Ebola patients in West Africa.

The order is only for 24 hours, but it limits her travel and bans her from public places or within three feet of other people outside her home, according to the Associated Press. Hickox left her home in Fort Kent on Thursday to go for a bike ride and then to speak with reporters. She has argued the mandatory quarantine is not based on science and violates her civil liberties. Hickox said she has no fever and therefore could not transmit Ebola even if she had it, because only people with symptoms are contagious. She has about two weeks left on her quarantine….

President Obama has never really like Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu…..

He also hasn’t liked the fact that Israeli Foreign Policy isn’t gonna move much in the way of making accommodations with the Palestinian’s….

On top of all of this?

The President and his Secretary of State are gonna somehow to make a deal with Iran on their nuclear program so that America can get help FROm Iran in solving a whole mess of things in Iraq, Syria and who knows where else…

Israel, which does BILLIONS in Defense business with the US has an Ace in the hold on the President though….The Jewish vote and the Republicans in Congress….

So one shouldn’t be surprised with the political knife fighting going on that has spilled out in public this week….

Israeli politicians spent most of Wednesday responding with outrage and concern to an article in The Atlantic quoting a senior American official calling Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a “coward” — and also using a more colorful but vulgar synonym that starts with “chicken.” Mr. Netanyahu and his allies denounced such a personal attack as inappropriate, while his critics declared it evidence of the dangerous deterioration of the state’s most treasured alliance that Mr. Netanyahu has caused.

Then, in late afternoon, a senior Israeli official offered a new spin. “It appears that someone in the administration is trying to pre-empt Prime Minister Netanyahu’s criticism of an imminent and highly problematic deal with Iran,” said the official, speaking on the condition that he not be named, since that is how this game is played. “It is a transparent attempt to discredit the messenger instead of dealing with the substance of his criticism.”

It would be easy to write all this off as what Aaron David Miller, a veteran Washington observer on all things Middle East, called “the nanny-nanny-boo-boo kindergarten school,” where “they call each other names.” But there are serious underlying differences in Israel and the United States regarding the fate of Iran’s nuclear program, and the downward dip between their leaders comes at a critical juncture.

With a Nov. 24 deadline looming, Israelis have watched, with rising concern, signs of an international deal that would allow Iran to preserve at least some of its nuclear program and would bring about the lifting of crippling economic sanctions. Worse for Jerusalem, President Obama’s aides have indicated that they will try to bypass a vote on the deal in Congress, where Israel’s support is strongest and Mr. Netanyahu has occasionally made direct appeals…..

Good morning everyone, and Happy Halloween. We have very scary roundup … for Democrats.

President:

Ebola: Still no coherent policy from the White House, and the cake is baked going into the midterms. My sense is that this has a general “malaise” effect on Dems, and less of a specific impact because of the issue itself.

Israel: This wouldn’t be the Obama administration if there weren’t one more tale of incompetency on the eve of the election. In addition to someone calling Prime Minister Netanyahu “a chickenshi*t,” both John Kerry and Joe Biden snubbed the Israeli Defense Minister last week by refusing to meet with him.

2016, Clinton: At an event in Maryland for Anthony Brown, Clinton was repeatedly heckled by immigration activists. Apparently they also made a showing at a Kay Hagan event last week. Keep up the protests against Democrats, Dreamers.

Governors:

MD-Gov: Not even Hillary could pack a house for Anthony Brown in College Park, Maryland. Even if Brown wins, he will have limped into office.

ME-Gov: LePage has promised to use his full authority to ensure that a woman who has returned from West Africa goes through normal quarantine procedures for Ebola.

FL-Gov: This is kind of an awkward interview between Sean Hannity and Rick Scott, but you can see Rick Scott is really trying to be likeable. Also, they show part of this ad, which is pretty good.

Senate:

538: Nate Silver gives the GOP a 68.5% chance of takeover, our highest odds all year long. Basically the GOP picks up 8 seats, with a 1/3 chance of a 9th in NC and a 1/5 chance of a 10th in NH.

MT-Sen: The Executive Director of the NRSC is telling stories out of school, and decided to go on the record with the fact that the NRSC discovered John Walsh’s plagiarism earlier this year, and leaked the story to the NYT for breaking. I don’t think this reduces the value of the hit, but the timing is weird. Maybe wait till after the election to explain the NRSC’s oppo research strategies.

NH-Sen: In a Candy Crowley moment, a debate moderator interrupted Scott Brown and incorrectly advised him that his New Hampshire geography was wrong. The Shaheen campaign intends to make a big deal out of it by sending the Democrat to Sullivan County, but the moderator has already admitted that Brown was right and apologized. I’m sure Shaheen will do the honorable thing here, and not demagogue on a false issue. Wait.

LA-Sen: Landreiu says it’s hard in the South, where people are so racist and sexist. I’m paraphrasing only a little.

NC-Sen: Recount preparations are being made by both sides in NC. Part of this is normal prep that any smart campaign would do, but it’s also partly about the recognition that the NC race is so close that it could easily go extra innings.

Things begin to get in line for the 2016 GOP Presidential Sweepstakes……

The 2014 midterm elections are days away, but preparation are already underway for the first debate of the 2016 presidential primary contest.

The Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation announced on Thursday that it will invite GOP presidential candidates to attend a televised debate at California’s Reagan Library in September 2015.

Former first lady Nancy Reagan noted that the country is less than a year away from the beginning of an important national conversation. “I can’t think of a better way to honor my husband than to keep the tradition of Reagan Library-hosted debates alive,” she said.

The announcement comes more than two years before voters will decide President Barack Obama’s successor. But in some ways, the next presidential contest is already up and running.

Prospective Republican White House hopefuls have been jockeying for position while helping their GOP colleagues in midterm contests from Iowa to New Hampshire in recent weeks. The list includes Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush.

The Senate is probably going back to the Democrats come January 1, 2017….

That would give the Republicans 2 years to fight among themselves and dig themselves possibly into a deeper hole…..(Their majority will be less than the current Democratic one in the Senate…IF they prevail this Tuesday)

That and Hillary Clinton IS gonna be the get out the vote factor x 10 for Democrats around the country….

Senate Democrats have long awaited the 2010 tea party wave to splash back on Republicans during the 2016 election cycle.

That moment is almost here.

After two years of obsessive focus on the teetering reelection prospects of red-state Democrats, the attention is about to shift in a major way to blue-state Republicans. Six of them who rode anti-Obama sentiment to office in 2010 are up in two years, and they’ll face the dual challenge of a more diverse electorate and potentially Hillary Clinton atop the Democratic ticket.

The leftward-tilting map means a GOP-controlled Senate could be short-lived if the party prevails on Tuesday. Even in the best-case scenario for the party, a Republican majority is certain to be slim.

A half-dozen first-term Republicans are up for reelection in states President Barack Obama won in both 2008 and 2012: Mark Kirk of Illinois, Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania, Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, Rob Portman of Ohio, Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire and Marco Rubio of Florida. Obama also twice carried Sen. Chuck Grassley’s Iowa, but the longtime incumbent would be much tougher to dislodge.

Add it all up and it’s basically the mirror image of 2014.

“We shift the ground from where it was this time — seven Democrats were running in states that Obama didn’t carry — to an environment where seven Republicans are running in states that Obama did carry,” said Sen. Roy Blunt of Missouri, a member of GOP leadership up for reelection in 2016.

Republicans are trying to look at the bright side of the intimidating terrain. If the GOP proves itself a responsible steward of Congress over the next two years, Republicans believe voters will be less inclined to oust vulnerable GOP incumbents…..

I mentioned in yesterday’s notes that there was a big load of pundit rating changes coming for Thursday’s update. Indeed there was! All four pundits updated their House ratings to the tune of 59 new race ratings. Republicans enjoyed almost exactly a 2-1 advantage in the latest harvest of rating changes. The dial moved rightward in 39 races and leftward in 20. That’s a hefty margin, but much less than we saw in 2010 when Republicans would routinely garner 80-90% of the pundits’ rating changes.

Here’s breakdown of each expert I use in my House projections. Charlie Cook updated 10 races, splitting the benefit equally between Republicans and Democrats. Larry Sabato, who always eliminates his toss-up calls just before the election, offered 22 ratings changes. Fifteen moved in the direction of the GOP, while seven shifted toward Democrats. Stuart Rothenberg, who moved nine races out of the competitive category, had the most ratings changes with 16 favoring Republicans against just 7 for Democrats. Finally, RealClearPolitics, who tend to make more frequent updates, had just four in this latest round. Three of them favored the GOP.

In addition to all the rating changes, we also have a new generic congressional poll out from CBS News showing Republicans dominating the House landscape by a 50-42 margin. That survey pushes the generic adjustment to 0.3 points for the GOP.

So what happened to the balance of power in the projected 2014 House elections as a result of all this shuffling? Interestingly, the overall tally remains 242 Republicans and 193 Democrats as it was after Wednesday’s update.

But an unchanged count doesn’t mean there weren’t races impacted by all the new data. As you can see from the summary above, Republicans and Democrats both earned two party switchers in their favor and several other races became either more or less competitive. With 4 days left until Election Day – and four more updates to go – the GOP is projected to gain a net of 8 seats, equaling their 242-193 advantage attained after the red wave elections in 2010…..

My sister informs me they are down in South Carolina also….New York City has them…

But the rollout of the system in Nassau County, LI New York has been sloppy and riddled with hiccups…..

As far as this Dog is concerned the systems are just a way for local governments to make money…..

And they are making a LOT of people VERY angry…..Heck maybe they’ll get SOOO angry they vote the knuckleheads that put the things up OUT OF OFFICE?

…from Long Islands Newsday…..

More than 400 furious Nassau residents packed Cantiague Elementary School in Jericho Thursday night to confront the architect of Nassau County’s controversial speed camera program and demand refunds for hundreds of tickets issued in front of the school.

The meeting, hosted by local residents, featured fiery exchanges between Nassau Traffic and Parking Violations Agency executive director…

Former Obama chief strategist David Plouffe is advising Hillary Clinton to announce her intention to run for president shortly after the 2014 election concludes, according to a terrific piece this morning by Politico’s Maggie Haberman and Glenn Thrush. “Why not?” Plouffe reportedly told Clinton about the prospect of an early announcement. “They are already going after you.”

Plouffe is right — both for the practical reasons outlined in the quote above and for more symbolic, but no less important, reasons too.

The reality of being Hillary Clinton — the best known politician not named Barack Obama in the country and a massive frontrunner for the Democratic presidential nomination — is that the campaign both for and against her is already well under way. There are outside organizations designed to gather opposition research against her (America Rising) and to protect her from that criticism (Correct The Record). There is a super PAC — Priorities USA — that is expected to carry the load of the pro-Clinton, anti-Clinton-opponent advertising and another one (Ready for Hillary) building a grassroots network for her candidacy.

Hillary Clinton, in the eyes of the political world, is already running for president. Waiting to acknowledge what everyone already knows and has spent the last year-plus preparing for makes little sense — particularly because running for the nation’s highest office requires massive amounts of time for fundraising, organization building, message development and so on and so forth. Why play coy when there’s no mystery?

A record number of 13 women are running for the Senate as Democrats or Republicans. There are currently 20 women in the Senate. In the best case, there could be 27 women in the new Senate because in two states (Maine and West Virginia) both candidates are women and only one is going to win and in four states the incumbent is a woman. Here is the list of female Senate candidates.