Monday, May 26, 2014

I have seen a lot of angry comments on Facebook, Twitter, and Message Boards concerning my last three posts laying out my reasons for why I think the Scotland Yard review is a whitewash, why I think Scotland Yard would be unlikely to spend millions and years on a probably unwinnable case for anything other than political purposes, and why I think all of us have little power in comparison to the McCanns and whatever politics lies behind this bizarre missing person's case. Some people are so angry they have come at me with ad hominem attacks or statements that they will never read a thing I write ever again. I think these volatile responses (and I am not talking about well-reasoned arguments to my analyses which I think are a good thing as it gives all of us more to think about and I, myself, learn a lot from opposing opinions) are an angry backlash that comes from fear - fear that I am right. And I get it. If I am right, it sucks.

For seven years, people interested in justice have studied every aspect of this case and spent way more time in analysis than Scotland Yard will ever put in. Some people have built and maintained websites and Facebook pages full of information about the case, sites I am thankful for and have used myself. I won't name them all here, but I appreciate each and every one of them, even those that might have issues with my take on things; they still spread the word.

So, why then my last three posts and my adamant belief in a whitewash? Why my strong belief that this case will never be prosecuted? Why my assertion that in spite of everyone's efforts, we have so little power to affect a good outcome? Why don't I just STFU?

All I can say is experience. I have seen the inside of police cases, the inside of politics in police cases, and the inside of media. I know what I know and I have always called things as I see them. People expect that of me and it would not be right for me to suddenly go silent and hide what I think is true because the truth (at least what I believe is the truth) is not that palatable. I share my experience and analyses of the situation because many people have no idea how police investigations work and how media really works; they make assumptions from outside of these worlds. I have been in them and this is why I bring you my take. I have seen a lot of stuff and while I may be wrong about my belief as to how this case will turn out, what I say I base on inside knowledge of how these things have worked in the past.

My other reason for not staying silent about what I think is going to be a stomach-turning outcome of the Scotland Yard review is to help folks keep a more rational head about what might be coming down the pike, to recognize that the McCanns being arrested is something that should be a happy surprise, not an expectation, a major triumph that would come from actually having enough evidence to proceed to prosecution and having a political turnabout that would allow this to happen. What I fear for all those who have put so much time and energy into following this case and championing justice is that they are going to be crushed if this case is closed with a patsy abductor or a Scotland Yard "expert" conclusion that the Maddie was abducted by an unknown predator and her body too well hidden or disposed of to ever be found. Personally, I would rather be on the cautious side and not get my hopes up too high when the odds are against a pleasing ending.

I know the experience of being blindsided by the illegitimate closing of cases I have worked on with police. It isn't just one time that I turned in my profile and thought the case would eventually move forward properly to prosecution or at least a proper investigation, all to have nothing good happen at all. I have had detectives tell me that my profile was awesome (with each determination supported by convincing evidence) and that they now believed in my conclusions on the case. I would leave, spirits soaring; I knew justice would now take its proper course. And then nothing would happen and the case shelved or the agency would go public with America's Most Wanted or the local press and continue down the same erroneous road they were on before I worked with them. Why? Because it was too late to get a solid prosecution (a legitimate reason why they can't do anything with the case and why I gave up working cold cases) or they are embarrassed they had been after the wrong person for so long (and aren't going to admit it) or the new focus is a problem politically. I have learned the hard way that justice is often not what all parties are working for. Politics, egos, and incompetence play a big part in what actually happens with in a portion of police cases. We don't realize this because a good portion of cases are easy to solve and prosecute because the suspect is obvious; the police just need to do a solid job protecting the scene, evidence, and rights. The difficult cases are fewer and most don't get that much media attention. The odd ones that make headlines are special cases and often are a nightmare for police departments and are "put to rest" in whatever way works best. Reality bites and it is actually far worse than many of you think it is. There are certainly ethical and highly skilled detectives out there; I have worked with some that I think are absolutely the best (I am working with some now to forward police training in criminal profiling) and these guys solve cases and sometimes very difficult ones. But then there are the other detectives and other cases; not all goes perfectly. Real life is not Hollywood.

Regardless of how the McCann case turns out and regardless of how some folks feel about me, I still appreciate the hard work and heart all of you have put into keeping the truth about this case in the public eye. Even if I feel that none of us really have the power to change the course of this "investigation," I do think we all have the power to show others and the future generations that people care and that there are human beings out there who believe in truth and justice and will put themselves on the line to stand up for it.

What really happened to Madeleine Beth McCann in Praia da Luz, Portugal in 2007? Was she abducted as the Gerry and Kate have claimed or did something happen to Madeleine on May 3 in the vacation apartment and the incident covered up? Criminal Profiler Pat Brown analyzes the evidence and takes the readers through the steps of profiling, developing a theory that is intriguing and controversial.

Hmm, glad I made that clearer, Gill, but I don't see where I have made any about-face thinking on this case. I have never had faith in this review. My only hope was that Portugal would tell Scotland Yard where to go and fight for the evidence. Then, even if there was no prosecution, at least the belief that the case had been shelved because the McCanns were innocent might be cleared up and Goncalo would get support from his own country. He has been hung out to dry and I hate to see him end his fight as the fall guy for Portuguese/British politics.

Hi pat,as much as I don't want to believe in a whitewash I think your right.regarding the review ,arrests would have been made early on if SY were looking at the right people. This farce wouldn't be into its third year chasing down every fake suspect alive or dead.There is so much evidence out there on the internet ,statements ,body language in interviews etc etc that raise alarm bells.I suppose i have to conclude the outcome of this was predetermined there's is no other explanation!

Pat - keep going! This IS a whitewash and has been from the first announcement that a "review" was going to take place. The PJ have had to put up with PC plod of the yard trampling all over the investigation. There is no way that anyone so far named/ mentioned or suspected in relation to Madeleine vanishing from the face of the earth could have avoided hearing about this, and if there is an outside guilty party they have covered their tracks so well it's as though they never existed! Oh, did I say "never existed"? As a taxpayer in the UK I really object to this nonsensical and obviously flawed investigation by SY.I wish that the government would pull the plug and leave the McCanns to spend what's left of the Fund money on irrelevant items.

I run one of the facebook groups you mentioned Pat, whereas I respect your views I also think that they can be quite damaging to the cause, raising public awareness is a hard task, we have our work cut out thanks to irresponsible reporting in the MSM. We need to keep spirits high in order to get the public discussing the case with friends, if only at the very least to be in a position to prevent the whitewash you talk about by applying more pressure to the powers that be. Not only that but the more people we make aware of the facts the less money is donated to the fund. The McCanns deserve exposing, we should be rallying support, not putting a negative air on the situation. People don't want to be defeated just yet and we won't be. I really hope you move away from this now and start to write more powerful and damning posts that can gain more support for truth and justice.

Well, Anonymous at 2:15, I will also have too respectfully disagree with truthfulness damaging a cause. One of the biggest problems I have seen with whitewashing investigations in the past is an OVERLY positive attitude by the public that a police agency will do their job properly. This excessive belief in authorities honoring the citizens and always being competent, allows departments to lie and manipulate with impunity because so few will stand up and call them out on their dirty tricks. If they had to defend their work by proving to the public that it was on the up-and-up, we might have far better results. In truth, police departments are rarely held accountable for their actions and their is no oversight in most places that keep police agencies from malfeasance.

What people fear, especially families, is that if they speak against a police department or demand honesty and openness, they will piss off the police and they will stop working on the case. In reality, the opposite is true. An overly supportive attitude on part of family and community actually encourages the police to not work on cases and just do what is politically expedient.

As for me, I am one of the few professionals who has spent years exposing the McCanns on my blogs and in my book (risking lawsuit and getting Carter-Rucked) and on TV, and going to PDL to further investigate and bring back information, all resulting in a serious loss of income. I hardly think that I have failed to contribute to the knowledge out there. The reason I am now focused on the police is because there has been three years of what I consider a likely phony investigation and if I do not address this, then yet another commentator has been silenced, this time by those wanting justice in the McCann case, not from the media people or Carter-Ruck. I should think you would be happy at least one person would stick their neck out to point out the concerning behaviors of Scotland Yard.

Sadly, I think what is happening here is that people have spent so much of their lives with this case, they will not be able to handle a possibly bad conclusion. If Scotland Yard makes its pronouncement of the parents being innocent and an abductor responsible for the disappearance of Maddie, the case is dead, dead, dead...as dead as Madeleine. All the Facebooking and blogging will have no affect because now YOU, not just me, will be accused of saying Scotland Yard is a crooked police department, that YOU, not just me think you know more than the top police detectives in the world, and that YOU, not me can't admit you are wrong. The blogs and Facebook pages will go on for years with "conspiracy theorists" ragging on and on, and no books will be written on the subject (at least not ones about the McCanns doing in Maddie) because the official police conclusions is abduction and no publisher is going to go up against that.

What will I do when Scotland Yard speaks? Be thrilled I was wrong or accept that I was right and move on with other projects. Sometimes you have to work where you can work best; my most important project now is training police detectives to profile properly (do good crime analysis) so that cases don't go south. I would even teach at Scotland Yard and at other police agencies that I have seen railroad cases because with each new detective hired, there is hope for better work.

It is an incredible situation that this police investigation has not come to the conclusion that the evidence so pointedly illustrates - the inconsistencies, the untruths.....there is a powerful protection behind the scenes preventing justice. Madeleine is buried and long gone and it would be so convenient to say it was a predatory paedophile who was responsible. Visiting the location, going inside the apartment etc, illustrates the farce that is the 'official line'. Thank you Pat and others for pursuing this and being unafraid of speaking out.

Pat, your comment above is exactly right..why I too am moving on from this.Can I just add that it is almost certainly because of all the bloggers, tweets etc that this last chance 'review' ever happened. I fully respect that some people will want to continue, but when due process becomes sealed off, then there remains nothing more than acrimonious public disputes.I think that Madeleine was surrounded by too much acrimony in her short life, and perhaps too many adults pursuing their own agendas.A child deserves justice; but they have no comprehension of things such as vengeance, vindication or 'exposure'. She would look upon us with trepidation, and that is a painful image.

Hi PatKeep up the amazing workI love your posts and your thoughtful analyses of this case- it is also important that people understand how political this case is and to not have blind faith in the work of SY. Surely this debate is beneficial if it brings the potential whitewash to more and more people's attention. Just one question that has been troubling meWhat would the psychological profile of the McCanns be if they have indeed been instrumental in their daughters death, set up a fraudulent fund in her name and been able to perpetuate this lie year on year without breaking?As a couple and as parents in the glare of the media would they be almost unprecedented in managing to live a lie like this under such intense speculation?

I am not sure I agree that this review has anything to do with online anything. Anyone who has been in the media glare for a while learns this one truth: online forums and FB and Twitter rarely have much affect on major media (barring some big racist slur or pornographic photo). I know this from a number of haters who thought they could take me down by writing crap about me on Twitter, FB, and on blogs (some even made blogs with my name in the URL). Guess what? In spite of what they think, no affect at all on the major media or publishers. What it all comes down to is money. I made money for the networks. The reason I don't do so much TV work anymore is because I left HLN of my own free will and all the networks have gone to using Skype (which I refuse to do) or make commentators drive themselves in (and pay for gas and parking) if they want to be on. In other words, the networks are in financial trouble and are cutting back on spending.

As to the McCanns, when they were arguidos, I was allowed to speak about their possible guilt. Once they returned to England and started using Carter-Ruck and then wrote the book, the media machine had decided the new story was the poor McCanns, suffering parents of a kidnapped child; that became the moneymaking theme and that is why ALL major media supports them. When you weight the number of viewers of Oprah, The Today Show, etc., to those who might see a tweet or actually look into the case via FB or blogs, you are talking a huge lopsided fraction here. And that is what the McCanns know. They were worried about my book on Amazon because it was right under their book because that meant my book could get a substantial numbers of views. Once they got rid of the book from Amazon (although it is still at Smashwords and B&N because it sells minimally) they left me alone. In other words, even I am small fish when compared to major media. And they are right...if my many blogs and book and FB and Twitter were so powerful, you think I would have had a few interested media folks call me. Nope. Not a one on this case. Yet they call me constantly about mass murder because they think I will talk about some creepy psychopath. When I tell them I won't come on and give him glory but I will come on and talk about media encouraging copycat mass murder crimes, they hang up. Hehe....yeah, that is not going to make them money.

So, I sadly doubt that onlline anything encouraged the review. I have no answer to why it was done. Maybe to take down Goncalo (the timing is interesting.....three years of dawdling and when Amaral's case goes to court, suddenly their is action - maybe they were just waiting for the right time to close the case and crush Goncalo). Maybe there is some other reason...like exonerating the McCanns for some future happenings. I don't know but I do know it probably isn't because a few (and I mean few by thousands but still a few) people tweet about them in an unfriendly way (I only think Tony Bennett got trounced was not so much the online stuff but the on the ground campaign in their neighborhood).

As to a child deserving justice, sure, but the real issue is much bigger. I think many people have gotten caught up in some emotional relationship to a child they never met (kids are murdered all over the world in high numbers everyday) and a dislike of Kate and Gerry (again, lots of crappy parents out there, many far worse than those two). The REALLY big issue is missing children's investigations, how they are handled and funded. This case has done massive permanent damage to all missing children's cases because ONE child gets all the money and attention. We should be working on equity, proper handling of all missing children's cases, accountability for police departments, better police training, etc.

I am not saying it isn't great that these forums are online: they helped me greatly with research and meeting people; the groups helped me meet Toney and Goncalo and my trip to Portugal is still a highlight in my career for all the wonderful people I met, stayed with, and assisted with research and investigation. So, applause to all the groups for hanging in and sharing info. We certainly can try to do something and should try to do something. I have fought against bad odds and I have had some success and some defeat. I think people should keep on but just keep a level head and realize what we are up against in this case is far larger, in my opinion, then we know.

Books may be written but they will be self-published or put out by quirky small publishers (probably conspiracy and alien themed books) because if Scotland Yard says the McCanns are innocent, any hint of their involvement with be libelous even if no proof exists of an abductor. Publishers are not going back a writer against Scotland Yard; they wouldn't even take a chance on Goncalo and me, a detective and a profiler BEFORE Scotland Yard started the review. What publishers like are solved cases and no lawsuits....so, yes, there will be books that can tell the story of the long-suffering McCanns and you and I will appear in the book as villains. Yeah, THAT will get published by a big house, so you are right...books will be written...just not truthful ones.

From what I have seen both the McCanns appear to have Narcissistic Personality Disorders, with Gerry, perhaps, leaning more toward the psychopathic end of the scale.

The McCanns's behavior is not new; many criminals stand by their innocence right to the electric chair. It is not that they believe they are, like they have some sort of delusion developing from telling the lies so often they now believe them - this isn't really something that happens). But, what does happen, is that the person take on a role and plays that role. The longer they play the role, the better they are at the role. And they can play the fantasy role, forever, even getting enjoyment from the feelings the fantasy gives them.

For example, if the fantasy is that Maddie is alive, then pretending she is can be a lovely way of keeping the memory of the child and vivid like when people say they feel the spirit of a passed loved one in the room, watching over them. It is a fantasy, but a lovely one.

There is much to be gained by playing a fantasy role. Rubin "The Hurricane" Carter after his release from prison played the role of a civil rights hero, a black man who was wrongly imprisoned by the white establishment. He got to tour the country giving speeches to college students. I am sure as a full-blown psychopath, he enjoyed being the next Martin Luther King. He died recently, still a hero in his own fantasy and in other people's unfortunate misunderstanding of the facts of the triple homicide case and Carter's personality.

I hope it is not a coincidence that for three years little has happened with the Scotland Yard review but then it revved up with the start of Goncalo Amaral's trial. It is my fear the review by Scotland Yard will conclude just in time for a decision to be handed down in Amaral's case, which means, I believe he will be hung out to dry, Scotland Yard backing the McCanns' claim of innocence and "proving" Goncalo fabricated a false scenario which prevented finding Madeleine (after all they had to petition to finally get help from the UK) and ruined their reputations. I think if Scotland Yard doesn't bring down the McCanns, then Goncalo is going to be a scapegoat for this whole political mess.

I feel really horrible for Goncalo. This case has truly weighed heavy on him and he has done all he can to continue to fight the battle (one most people would have walked away from) and one can see how destructive this road has been to his spirit and health. Along with justice and finally having the truth come out, I wish to be wrong about Scotland Yard so that Goncalo can get vindication and finally be able to relax and enjoy his life, a true hero.

You're right, it is of course about more than one child. But like it or not we are culturally predisposed to certain 'icons' that come to epitomise a cause.

The individuals who acquire such status are no more (and no less) important than any others, but sometimes it is the one iconic example that serves to break the mould for all the others. That sounds particularly cold...but you get the drift!

I think the blogs are in some way responsible for the review. Not because the people campaigning were necessarily 'listened to' but because they have maintained Madeleine McCann as someone 'newsworthy'.

The MSM will not touch the details of the case, but they have been knowingly adding fuel to the web furore. It is because Madeleine remained newsworthy that Rebekah Brooks saw value in coercing Cameron into the review. Had the name 'Madeleine' fallen into anonymity then this would never have happened. Bloggers were at least partly responsible for that.

My own feeling is that when this investigation concludes there will never be another opportunity of reopening.

I think it should be possible to relate to Madeleine's fate in a way that retains the sentiment due to her, due to all children so badly treated. Lest why bother?

Whether people should or should not carry on, I don't know. For me, when access to legal process ends then so does the rationale of continuing. There ceases to be a conclusion at which to aim, and it becomes a game.

I still disagree about bloggers making the McCann name newsworthy. In a sense, bloggers helped run an underground network where people could share info. I certainly am part of this network. But, that we made the McCann name newsworthy? No. The McCanns did that. The news media does not care about us. It is a one way street. While MSM may tweet to us about the McCanns and FB us about the McCanns and write stories and programs for us to watch about the McCanns, they are not interested in information going the other direction. THEY are not reading our blogs, pages, and tweets; they really don't care. As I said before, if this were true, considering how vocal I have been in every way about this case, I should have gotten a bite from MSM. I have not. EVEN when my attorney, Ann Bremner and I put out a press release to hundreds of media outlets about my book's removal by Amazon and our Cease and Desist Letter to the McCanns, we got ZERO response! Talk about a major blow! I couldn't believe no one in the media was interested. But, as I keep saying, the message is not being carried by us....someone else is in control, and therefore, the reason for the review has nothing to do with us either.

Amazon just has the lion's share of the market. What happened with my book was that it got lucky when it showed up below Madeleine, Kate's book. Sales were doing to well for the McCann's liking. Truly, it was their book that sold mine; alone, few would have found my book. I got free advertising from their book.

As to Amazon, they just made a smart business decision. Again, it is about the money. The McCanns' book was a bestseller; mine was chump change.

You may very well be right that Scotland Yard got stuck with a case that they don't know what to do with under the conditions they were giving it. So, they are just going along with the program - I have seen this many times; detectives half-heartedly following useless leads that they know aren't solving the case, but they are under orders. However, Redwood didn't have to quite go so public with his TV appearances but I think he likes being in the limelight (also not unusual when someone is asked to be on TV). In the end, however, if the police agency isn't following the evidence, they are purposefully denying justice, lying to the public, and failing to do their professional duties.

PS. It is okay to be romantic! Someone has to be less cynical than me.....

My nickname is "cynical". I've followed Madeleine's case since it became a news item in the USA. It did not take me very long to come to believe that the McCanns were involved in the disappearance of their daughter. I have followed you on the media and through the internet and was intrigued from the start and shared your exact views and opinion on this case. In my opinion there is indeed a "white wash" and the recent "review" of the case is a farce.Scottland Yard has too large an ego to ever admit that their "findings" were inaccurate and no one with Scottland Yard hasthe stones to admit the truth. The "suspects" were successful and wealthy and absolutely no one wanted nor had the guts to investigate the case to find the truth, no matter where the truth may have led them. It is sad for the innocent littlegirl to have no justice. I'm as stubborn as they come and though I will always keep an ear and eye out for "real" evidence to come forth, I want you to know that you have truly tried and did an outstanding job of attempting to expose the "real" culprits for ending the life of this little girl and for being the cowards they are. I'm a realist and don't expect a miracle tohappen where someone will actually find a conscience and tell the damn truth, but I would welcome a "pleasant surprise". Thank you for all your dedication, time, fortitude and courage and the enormous sacrifice you have made to bring justiceto Madeleine.

Great article, very honest. I think it can be a good thing to make people angry it makes them want to push more for justice instead of waiting for it to play out. What I have found interesting with this investigation is the fact that they have not questioned the McCann's or anyone else within the circle that night. Most are outraged at this feeling that this is because a whitewash is happening. I look at it very differently, If I was in charge of a cover and seen to be looking into everything the 1st thing would be to hold those interviews, this would be seen as clearing them and for the McCann's it would be a chance for them to say to the critics who say they have not helped or been cooperative, look we are.I would be interested what your take is on this.C

One thing is, we don't know for sure is if the McCanns or the Tapas 7 have been reinterviewed but I doubt it because I think this was off the table from the start. IF they had done so, I don't think we would see this review take so incredibly long and with all the TV shows and such. Some think the TV shows are a way to trap the McCanns and I don't buy that. I think they were to establish that the police were making progress and also reaching out to the public for help identifying the abductor.

One thing we must recognize is if this is a whitewash to exonerate the McCanns, the audience they wish to reach is not us, so they do not have to do stuff to convince the people who believe they are guilty (because unless they find Maddie's body on some child predator's private property, we probably won't ever believe they are innocent). No, I believe the aim is for a larger worldwide group, enough to satisfy regular people who don't know too much about the case. If the McCanns are exonerated by Scotland Yard, it puts an end to any speculation (except by nutters), allowing for a bright future for the McCanns and their friends and also proves Britain is not involved in some political chicanery and whatever else is going on.

@Pat. You said "This case has done massive permanent damage to all missing children's cases because ONE child gets all the money and attention. We should be working on equity, proper handling of all missing children's cases, accountability for police departments, better police training, etc."I could not agree more. No single missing child is more deserving of such massive and unprecedented media coverage.I feel for the parents of missing children who don't have the ability to snap their fingers and gather such high profile backers within hours of the child's disappearance. It has been said many times but when the fund was started how on earth did anyone know Madeleine wouldn't be found within days or weeks? I really appreciate that you don't allow yourself to be gagged or intimidated by so called 'higher powers".As an aside I just finished reading a book - a true story about the lack of professionalism and failure to properly investigate a crime. Death row awaited the accused because it was easier for prosecutors and police to let the flawed 'evidence' stand than prove the accused could not have been responsible. Chilling.

Pat - what is happening with the libel case against Goncalo Amaral? I keep looking to see what news updates are around but there is nothing.He seems to me to be a decent man who took the evidence he had and came to the logical (to me anyway) conclusion.

No sure what is happening with the libel trial. Supposedly it is on hold due to the issue over the status of Madeleine being a ward of the court. I have no idea how accurate that is. I do find it reprehensible (in the US, Portugal, and elsewhere) that civil trials can take years to come to a conclusion. This is the opposite of justice to drag out the torture in people's lives and drain them of money. The problem, in my opinion is our legal system which attorneys manipulate to drain people of their money and make a fortune for themselves.

::sigh:: There are many people wrongfully convicted in the US due to law enforcement desire to close cases down with a patsy, some guy that is a believable wrongdoer. We often focus on death penalty cases but more of these guys are in for life, aren't DNA cases, and they are just ignored. Admittedly, most of them are repeat criminal offenders and it is hard to care too much about them, but putting them away for another person's crime means the real killer is still out there and justice is corrupt

How does this happen? The police department is stuck with a difficult to prove crime and they find a fall guy. If he is unlikeable enough, you can get a jury to convict him. Usually this is done due to some pressure from the community and the media: outrage about unsolved cases does not always end properly.

Take Chandra Levy, the girl who was dating the married congressman and ended up dead in Rock Creek Park. The congressman was a suspect for a long time and then the Washington Post ran a big series of articles trashing the police department over their failure to close the case. Lo and behold, suddenly some guy who was in prison, some gangbanger, was labeled the killer. He got convicted on the words of some jailhouse snitch; the crime didn't even match him. It was so sketchy that his lawyers were actually able to get an appeal.

I have seen this kind of thing play out quite often. One case I worked on had a local loser convicted on the "fact" that his ex said he had a gun like the gun....(it was a .38). Well, I have a .38, too, and a 9mm...I hope that doesn't get me convicted of local crimes in which those guns were used.

When these guys get convicted, usually there is little media and no one questions the jury convicting them on shoddy evidence. Because the patsies are lowlifes no one likes, people just assume they did it.

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By Pat Brown

"Killing for Sport is the most valuable insight into the minds of serial killers that you will ever read. While other profilers tend to conceal the clear facts behind complex technical language and psychobabble. Pat Brown actually tells it like it is."