Raila should not choose Wetangula as running mate in 2017

Editor’s note: The CORD leader, Raila Odinga, is yet to choose a running mate for the 2017 general elections. All eyes are on Ford Kenya leader Moses Wetangula or Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka. Peninah Muriithi advises Raila to stay clear of the two when choosing a running mate and instead pick Mudavadi. She argues that having Wetangula would be a wasted opportunity and a monumental failure.

Let’s settle a few issues first. Raila Odinga will be the CORD presidential candidate in the 2017 presidential polls. That is not in doubt. No one else is as eminently qualified to take on incumbent Uhuru Kenyatta.

The former prime minister has been in the trenches for as long as some of us can remember and has, sometimes singlehandedly, forced major governance changes in the nation.

He is currently the only opposition leader with a solid voting constituency that straddles beyond his ethnic backyard. Despite his age, he remains energetic and evokes strong emotions in his admirers and haters alike.

In short, a duel between the son of Jomo and any other candidate is going to be the most colourless electoral contest since independence.

Having settled the issue of the candidate, the next headache for the CORD coalition is the person who can bring credibility to the team and complement Odinga as running mate.

The former Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka’s natural home is Jubilee. The Wiper Party leader looks rather out of place as a CORD principal and oppositionist.

He is used to being in government and is least likely to stay in CORD unless he is made the presidential candidate. Besides, his Ukambani backyard seems to have nurtured and tolerated other competitors key among them.

Charity Ngilu, who is expected to run for the Kitui gubernatorial seat, and the current Governor of Machakos county, Alfred Mutua. Considering the scheme of things, the only two ways Musyoka can get the Kamba to vote as a block is either with him as the CORD flag bearer or with him leading the Kamba to Jubilee.

The CORD co-principal and FORD-K leader, Moses Wetangula, has been angling for a key role within the coalition. Yet his own presidential launch in the Luhya heartland of Kakamega was with strong resistance by Odinga’s supporters in the region.

For a party that prides itself on being the champion of reforms, the fight against corruption and good governance, Wetangula’s reform credentials are very thin and lackluster. Whereas his presence in CORD has helped in projecting the coalition’s broad-based support and national appeal, the former foreign affairs minister is lightweight in both national and western region politics.

He has not even succeeded in carving a niche as the automatic Bukusu leader, let alone winning the entire Luhya community support. Odinga is actually more popular in Luhyaland than Wetangula. Put head to head for Luhya votes, Odinga would beat Wetangula hands down.

His personal credentials aside, Wetangula also faces a major credibility problem among CORD core supporters. Although he has been a CORD co-principal for more than five years, Odinga’s core supporters still view him with suspicion. They are not banking much on him and indeed some expect him to cross over to Jubilee either before or after the next elections.

Having Wetangula as running mate would be a wasted opportunity and a monumental failure on Odinga’s part. Technically, 2017 will be Odinga’s final lap in his bid for the highest office in the land. It will cap a long and colorful political career and how he plays it will greatly influence his legacy.

The only Luhya leader who can inject new life into Odinga’s candidature is the cool and collected Musalia Mudavadi. Mudavadi quit ODM ahead of the last general elections and ran for President on the Amani National Congress party ticket.

He managed a sizable number of votes from across the country. Initially, he was viewed as the establishment candidate before the Uhuru and Ruto juggernaut reshaped the electoral contest.

He remains a friend of the Odinga’s and they agree on many issues. Perhaps, even more, crucial to Mr. Odinga is that the ANC leader is considered a safe bet by the ruling class. He remains one of the most viable likely Statehouse occupants to date.

Odinga only needs to assure him of his backing in the 2022 elections, the year when Jubilee will also have to undergo a transition from Uhuru to a new leader, presumably Deputy President William Ruto.

Odinga must make this crucial decision right away to give him sufficient time to deal with the expected fall. With Western, Nyanza, Coast and half of Nairobi in his vote basket, the CORD leader also needs to get his supporters to register as voters and actually get out on the election day to vote.

This is the only way Odinga can give the organized and well-resourced Jubilee a run for its money.

Ms. Muriithi is the Chief Communications Advisor at the Africa Center for Strategic Futures: Kenya Project.

This article expresses the author’s opinion only. The views and opinions expressed here do not necessarily represent those of TUKO.co.ke or its editors. We welcome opinion and views on topical issues. Email: news@tuko.co.ke.