Energy Market Analysis - 23-08-2018

Gas prices climbed higher yesterday with Norwegian supply constraints continuing to offer support to contracts at the front of the curve. Maintenance at Kollsnes was initially expected to cut flows by 32.5mcm but this was been revised to 35.5mcm and will last until the 2nd of September. Meanwhile, bullish carbon and oil markets helped far-curve prices to increase.

Most power contracts added to their price on Wednesday with direction provided by gas, carbon and oil markets. Stable renewable levels helped to cap upward movement on the prompt, with the front-month also moving down thanks to a mild weather forecast.

Market Open

Market Open

The system has fallen short this morning as a result of weaker Norwegian flows and high exports. However, demand is down from yesterday and storage levels are healthy. Coal displays a small loss but oil is bullish and dictates the back of the gas curve.

Sentiment across the power curve remains bullish this morning as high carbon prices and a rebound in oil are the main market drivers. Lower gas supply has provided additional support to the front of the curve but a healthier wind forecast for tomorrow has weighed on the prompt.

Brent 1st-nearby prices display a strong rebound on the back of the latest US stocks report and the gains could have been even bigger if it wasn’t for on-going trade concerns; Brent currently trades around $74.7/b.

1-year forward prices

Market close data has revealed that the 1-year forward price for commercial gas recorded a small loss, while commercial electricity increased – closing at 63.55ppt and £62.08/MWh, respectively.

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