Jeffries analyst Peter Misek made some surprising claims in a recent research note. He writes, "[W]e believe HP will aggressively attack the smartphone and tablet markets, which we believe are risky investments."

After failing with its acquisition of Palm and subsequent goodwill and inventory write-offs totaling $3.3B, recent comments from HP management point to a retargeting of tablets and smartphones. While the move makes sense strategically, we see it as a high risk move. On top of adding costs and working capital burdens to an already stressed balance sheet, there could be additional write-offs. We note that to date almost all PC OEMs have failed to gain significant traction in consumer tablets/smartphones.

Of course Mr. Misek has made some controversial predictions that he's been flat-out wrong about in the past -- such as his claim that phonemaker Research in Motion, Ltd. (TSE:RIM) would post a big fiscal Q2 2013 fiscal miss (instead RIM handsomely beat analyst outlook, post a smaller than expected loss).

There is some supporting evidence, though, for this claim. New Hewlett-Packard Comp. (HPQ) CEO Meg WhitmantoldFox Business Network, "We have to ultimately offer a smartphone because in many countries of the world that would be your first computing device. We are a computing company."

The HP chief rejected rumors of a RIM purchase, commenting, "No, that is not a direction that we're going to head."

But the real question, if this idea of a smartphone push is true is what direction HP is going to head in. The most logical option would perhaps be Windows Phone 8 [1][2][3] handset, given its strong relationship with Microsoft Corp. (MSFT). Google Inc.'s (GOOG) Android is also a possibility.

But those with fond memories of webOS, don't get your hopes up for a comeback tour. Much of HP's webOS staff has jumped shipped to Google in recent months. Only a barebones skeleton crew has continued on working open-sourcing the webOS code. Given how outdated the code base is, and the lack of experienced personnel a revival of webOS seems the least likely scenario.