Tuesday, February 14, 2017

In the capital of the
world’s largest Muslim-majority nation, the incumbent Jakarta governor Basuki
Purnama Tjahaja, better known as Ahok, is battling to retain his seat.

Ahok, a Christian from
the country’s ethnic Chinese minority, is clinging to a slight lead in the
polls against Anies Baswedan, the former education minister, and Agus Harimurti
Yudhoyono, son of a former president.

Ahok was favourite to
win the vote until he became embroiled in a blasphemy
scandal. Accused of insulting Islam, he has been forced to defend
what many believe are politically motivated charges.

Mass protests by
religious hardliners and the legal proceedings that followed have led some
observers to view Wednesday’s election as a test of Indonesia’s much-touted
commitment to pluralism.

“I think this is going to be a litmus test of
Indonesian Islam,” said Tobias Basuki, a researcher at the Centre for Strategic
and International Studies. “Are we tolerant or intolerant?”

Rumours abound that
powerful political interests helped fund and mobilise the protests to chip away
at Ahok’s strong popularity.

“You cannot
underestimate the effect, the significance of this primordialism and the
politicisation of religion in order to achieve political ends [by] those who
use religion to win the election,” said Aleksius Jemadu, dean of political
science at Jakarta’s Pelita Harapan University.

The effect has been
decidedly damaging for Ahok, a straight-talking sometimes brash leader credited
with delivering positive changes in the city including mitigating floods,
cutting red tape and driving infrastructure projects.

Ahok’s lead has been
steadily eroded and at times eclipsed by his contenders. His poll standing has
rebounded in recent weeks but remains tenuous. A poll in December 2016 showed
how effectively a conservative religious base had been galvanised against him.

Saiful Manjani
Research and Consulting (SMRC) found that 45 per cent of Indonesians believed
the remarks at the centre of Ahok’s troubles were blasphemous but 88 per cent
admitted they weren’t exactly sure what he had said.

Ahok’s electoral
rivals have aggressively courted the Islamic vote – visiting mosques and
religious leaders, donning Muslim garb and, in the case of Anies Baswedan, a
former education minister, even controversially meeting the head of a hardline
Islamic group.

“I think the most
critical issue is the unstoppable politicisation – how strong the motivation
and aim of Ahok’s enemies is to prevent him from winning by capitalising on
this issue of insulting religion,” noted Jemadu of the dynamics at play. At a
time when the country is grappling with the relationship between religion and
state, the blowback has also churned up underlying resentment against
Indonesia’s often wealthier Chinese ethnic minority.

Racist, anti-Chinese
memes have been circulated online – some even branding Ahok a communist, a
damning insult in Indonesia. One reason the Jakarta governorship is so hotly
contested is the potential bearing it is perceived to have on the presidency.

The current president,
Joko Widodo, held the post before being elected head of state in 2014 which
catapulted his then deputy, Ahok, into the governorship.

At time of writing
Ahok stands at around 39 per cent in the polls. Without receiving the more than
50 per cent needed to win on Wednesday, he would have to fight out a second
round where his chances could be significantly worse. “If it goes to a second
round,” Basuki said, “it will be very ugly.”

This article appeared in the South China
Morning Post print edition as: