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This Working Paper is about Videsha Malayalikal, or Non-Resident
Keralites (NRKs). It provides the size, trend, geographical distribution,
socio-economic composition of migrants, and remittances sent back by
the migrants. The situation with respect to migration in 2004 is compared
with that in 1999.
The main focus of the study is, however, the analysis of the social
and economic consequences of emigration on Kerala society. What have
been the macroeconomic consequences of emigration? What are its
impacts on human resources development, employment, unemployment
and household consumption patterns? To what extent has the large-scale
emigration from the state been beneficial to the Kerala society? Has
emigration been a factor in Kerala's high unemployment rate?
During the five-year period 1999-04, the number of emigrants
increased from 13.6 lakh to 18.4 lakh, and the number of Non-Resident
Keralites (emigrants plus return emigrants) increased from 21.0 lakh to
27.3 lakh. The Gulf region has not been the only, although still a very
dominant, destination of Kerala emigrants of 2004; Kerala emigrants
have spread their wings over a larger number of countries during 1999-
04, including countries in Europe, America and South East Asia. Within
the Gulf region itself, significant realignments have taken place. Saudi
Arabia has lost some of its charm and United Arab Emirates has emerged,
as the preferred destination.
Remittances to Kerala from abroad increased from Rs 13.65
thousand crore in 1999 to Rs 18.46 thousand crore in 2004. As a result
of remittances, the per capita state income in Kerala has increased by Rs
5,678. The increase has been, however, as much as Rs 10,654 in Thrissur
district, Rs 7,681 in Pathanamthitta district and Rs 7677 in Malappuram
district. Foreign remittances to the state have been 7 times of what the
state received from the Government of India as budget support, 15 times
the receipts from cashew export, and 19 times the receipt from marine
export. They have formed 1.8 times the annual budget of the state. However, the proportion of remittances to State Domestic Product has
shown a slight decrease from 25 percent in 1999 to 22 percent in 2004.
* * * * * *
The KMS had emphasized the beneficial effects of emigration, on
per capita income, education, employment, housing, household amenities
and consumer durables. In the early stages of Kerala emigration, the
beneficial effects over-shadowed the adverse effects. Now that Kerala
emigration has come of age, secondary effects, which are not so
beneficial, are beginning to appear. In this study, we have emphasized
the emerging negative impacts of emigration more than the positive
impacts.
The first and the foremost among the negative impacts has been
on the unemployment rate. The paper gives an unorthodox view of the
relationship between emigration and unemployment. A point of view,
which this study puts forth is that emigration is a causative factor in the
high unemployment rate prevailing in the state.
An equally important "adverse" consequence is the emergence of
"replacement migration". Emigrants from Kerala have converted Kerala
itself into a "Gulf" for many a migrant worker from other states in India.
By accepting low wages and poor living conditions, these outside workers
are taking away a lot of work, which otherwise could have gone to Kerala
workers. Replacement migration is a consequence of emigration, and is
having significant effect on unemployment and wage rates in Kerala. It
is nullifying some of the potentially positive spin-off effects of emigration.
The greatly increased disposable income in the Kerala households
had its effect on the consumption pattern in the state. Higher levels of
consumption, however, have not helped industrialization in Kerala, as
most of the goods Kerala consumes come from outside the state. The
potential spin-off effects of remittances on employment are benefiting
workers outside Kerala more than workers in Kerala. Consumerism is
draining the state of the development potential of its remittance receipts.
It is leading many a Kerala family to financial ruin and even to suicide. Consumerism, brought about by emigration, has gone amok in the state
with minimum positive impact on its employment situation.
The increasing economic and political clout of the "new rich",
who became rich because of emigration and the Gulf connection, is
creating a climate of resentment against them among some communities
in Kerala. The Chief Minister of Kerala was being accused of antiminority
mentality for his alleged observation that minority communities
were cornering undue benefits using their newly acquired wealth power
and high level connections, both being the consequences of emigration.
This study has shown that minority communities have undoubtedly
benefited much more than the majority community have, from
emigration. Justified or not, such expression of resentment against the
"new rich" of the minority communities by the "old rich" is another of
the adverse effects of emigration.
* * * * * *
Five years ago we thought that Kerala's Gulf connection was a
passing phase in its history. Today we think otherwise. Not only has
Gulf emigration become well entrenched, some of the second-generation
emigrants are settling in the host country on a permanent basis too*, and
others are spreading their wings to a much wider spectrum of countries.
Migration is here to stay for a long time to come. The process of
demographic contraction at work in Kerala would be the only major
obstacle for Kerala emigration to take off to higher orbits. It is important
that Kerala takes policy measures to see that emigration is kept at a
sustainable level, and too much of its brain power is not drained off to
other countries, and too much of its remittances are not drained off to
other states. A policy for moderating brain drain and better and more
productive utilization of remittances for Kerala's development is
essential.
One way to do this is through educational reforms, taking into
consideration the emerging remittances-induced job opportunities in the
state. Not that emigration and remittances are not creating new job opportunities; there exists, however, considerable mismatch between skill
requirements for these jobs and skill availability among the new crop of
SSLC holders and plus two graduates. Ways and means should be found
to bridge this gap.
At this stage of Kerala's Gulf connection, there is every justification
for exposing our youngsters more to the Gulf countries. There is every
justification for introducing Gulf studies in our schools and colleges.
Today we can make out a strong case for our students to learn much
more about Gulf geography, Gulf history, Gulf politics and Gulf language.
Taking into consideration the emerging wide-spread impact of
replacement migration on Kerala's employment sector, especially on
unemployment and wage rates, we urge that a high level research on the
magnitude and characteristics of replacement migration in the state be
undertaken on an urgent basis. This has to be a major project in view of
its importance and technical requirements.
In the KMS, we suggested that, migration has become so important
a development factor that, Kerala should develop a formal migrationmonitoring
system. We now argue that Kerala should have an institute
of its own to monitor migration and its impact on Kerala society, a
Migration Monitoring Institute. How important that migration is carefully
monitored and researched in Kerala? To realize the importance, compare
the magnitude of remittances in 2003 with the total Kerala Government
expenditure in 2003.
Key Words: International Migration, Remittances, Kerala
JEL Classification: J21, J23