Saturday, October 28, 2006

This qualifies as the stupidest thing the Maliki team has done…

…even stupider than Maliki believing that he’s got what it takes to run Iraq in the first place.

This is what the “genius” Da’awa Party apparatchik Hassan Al-Suneid, one of Maliki’s chief aides, had to say to the Associated Press today:

“…Al-Suneid, however, said al-Maliki was intentionally using the displeasure of American voters over Bush's handling of the war to strengthen his position.

"It's al-Maliki's chance to get what he wants. It's a chance for al-Maliki to force a better deal for himself," he said.”

So basically, this is very embarrassing for President Bush; he is being “manipulated” by the guy whose ass he is saving. Maliki knows that Bush is politically vulnerable, and is intentionally turning up the rhetorical heat.

Great. Except that in a month’s time, the Americans may pass a strong hint to the Iraqi military to take matters into its own hand, suspend parliament and form a “unity government.” This is not such a far-fetched scenario given that one of the key recommendations of Jim Baker’s Iraq Study Group will be to abandon the goal of firming up a democratic Iraq.

At that point, Maliki may find himself back in exile, in Damascus.

The anti-Bush camp is going to have a field day with this on the Sunday shows tomorrow. Ali Al-Dabbagh, the official spokesmen of the Iraqi cabinet, is asleep at the time of writing this post. The other “genius,” Yassin Majid, Maliki’s media coordinator, probably approved this statement too.

Maliki and his team are just way out of their league. This is not how strategic relationships are conducted.

This mistake comes at a time when many knives are out to stab Iraq’s democracy in its cradle. Only Bush had remained steady.

I agree that the publicizing of Maliki's supposed intentions to turn up the rhetoric isn't wise for obvious reasons. However, Maliki and co. may see it as a good move if they feel that the U.S. is going to end up forcing them out of office anyway, expecially if they feel that's going to happen through a coup.

One goal Maliki may have in mind from turning up the rhetoric during this crucial time period is to secure concessions from the U.S. which may lead him to entrench himself in power. Also, Maliki may want to get the U.S. off his back regarding the Shia militias and greater control over the security ministries. During this time period, he could turn a blind eye while giving the green light for the militias to strengthen themselves, while also letting them cultivate connections in the security ministries. As a result, if and when the U.S. decides to allow a coup, the security ministries may be fully in control by Maliki's supporters or his supporters may be strong enough to detect it or fight it off.

Clearly what Iraq desperately needs is true statesmanship, leaders who can overcome the divides and gain the trust of the whole people. Just as clearly, Maliki doesn't fit the bill.

However, by what logic do you think that the US would welcome a coup? The one point that the US has stuck to throughout was that they were establishing a democracy. A coup would be extremely embarrassing, and in addition I can't imagine the American public wanting to spend another penny or cc of blood in supporting a military junta. If the Iraqi Army really wants to do this, and really believes they could keep their soldiers united in the face of competing loyalties, then for goodness' sake wait until we're out of the country.