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Country Risk Updates, Short-term political risk

In the framework of its regular review of short-term (ST) political risk classifications, Credendo has upgraded four countries (Belarus, Haiti, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan).

Belarus: upgrade from 6/7 to 5/7

Thanks to the favourable external environment and the 2017 energy pricing agreement with Russia, the short-term financing pressures on Belarus eased further. Short-term debt is on the decline. Current account receipts are expected to further increase in 2018 whereas the current account deficit is expected to increase only slightly due to higher imports associated with the construction of a nuclear plant. Taking into account the further liquidity improvement, Credendo has upgraded its short-term political risk to category 5. This represents the second upgrade in a short period of time. Indeed, Credendo upgraded its short-term political risk to category 6 (from 7) in September 2017 to reflect the surge in gross foreign exchange reserves in June 2017 following the issuance of an international bond and the recovery of current account receipts in 2017 after a sharp drop of more than 20% between 2014 and 2016.

Haiti: upgrade from 5/7 to 4/7

Since 2014, Haiti’s current account deficit has been narrowing to a modest level thanks to strong remittance revenues and foreign-aid inflows. As a consequence, foreign exchange reserves have risen to cover 6.5 months of imports in July 2017. Also, in 2018, the country’s current account deficit is likely to further decrease while its healthy level of foreign exchange reserves will be maintained. Moreover, since President Jovenel Moïse took office in 2017, the political environment has been improving. Indeed, after years of political turmoil due to cancelled elections combined with an overdue stay of a former president, it seems that democratic order is being restored in one of the world’s most politically unstable countries. Taking into account healthy liquidity indicators and the improvement of the political environment, Credendo has upgraded its short-term political risk to category 4.

Tajikistan: upgrade from 7/7 to 6/7

Tajikistan benefited from the high appetite for risky assets to issue a USD 500 m bond last September. As a result, gross foreign exchange reserves surged from USD 174.4 m in August to USD 643.9 m in September 2017. Hence, the country’s external liquidity improved significantly. This has justified Credendo’s decision to upgrade its short-term political risk to category 6.