Labour could still win the most number of seats at the general election, a new
poll reveals today.

The latest survey indicates there will be a hung parliament after the 2010 general election, but it would be Gordon Brown who would be in the position to try and form a government as leader of the largest party.

An Ipsos MORI poll looked at those who are “absolutely certain to vote.” Of those 37 per cent said Conservative, 32 per cent Labour and 19 per cent Liberal Democrat.

If translated into a general election, with a uniform swing, that would see Labour with 19 more seats than David Cameron’s party, but lacking an overall majority.

Recent polls have suggested that if there was a hung parliament it would be Mr Cameron who would win most seats. And today’s if the Tories gained one point from Labour – which is within the margin of error of a single poll - then the situation would indeed be reversed and Mr Cameron would be asked to form the government.

However, what the poll does not take account of the better showing that the Tories are likely to get in the marginal constituencies that will decide the election. The party, under the guidance of Lord Ashcroft, has poured large resources into these seats and polls have indicated that the Conservatives are doing better than the national polls reflect in these areas.

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Ipsos MORI still believe that the Conservatives will do better than this survey suggests due to a better performance in the marginals - as their analysis of all their 2009 surveys shows.

The Conservatives have seen their commanding poll lead diminish since the start of the year. Despite an advertising blitz, an attempted Labour coup to remove the Prime Minister and the desperate state of the economy Labour has managed to close the gap.

Conservative strategists hope that the turmoil created by allegations of bullying against Gordon Brown coupled with Alistair Darling’s unexpectedly forthright attack on the Prime Minister for allowing “the forces of hell” to be unleashed against him will have a beneficial impact in the polls over the coming days.

The poll, which was conducted this week, suggests that there was no immediate effect from the bullying accusations levelled at Mr Brown in a forthcoming book. However the more damaging intervention of Mr Darling, which illustrates divisions and mistrust at the top of this Labour cabinet, could yet have a negative impact.

Mr Cameron will also take comfort from the news that 60 per cent of voters believe the television election debates will play an important part in helping them decide which way to vote. The Conservative leader is widely expected to perform the best in the first ever British general election debates.

Fifty three per cent think Mr Cameron will gain most public support as a result of the three live broadcasts, compared to 20 per cent for Mr Brown and 12 per cent for Mr Clegg.

The Conservatives are preparing to gather in Brighton tomorrow for their spring conference. Unlike recent conferences Mr Cameron is unlikely to have to warn against complacency among his MPs and the Tory rank-and-file.

The narrowing of the polls will ensure no one who listens to Mr Cameron make a keynote speech on Sunday is in any doubt that every vote still has to be fought for if the Conservatives are to return to power after 13 years in opposition.