Final compromise language is far from complete. But for the conservative South Carolinian to explicitly back “aggressive reductions in our emissions of the carbon gases that cause climate change” (!) in a joint op-ed with Massachusetts liberal Sen. John Kerry (!!) published in pages of New York Times (!!!), Graham has already done all he could to infuriate the conservative movement and many voters in his conservative state.

In other words, Graham has already assumed the political risks for doing a deal. And there’s no point in taking those risks unless you actually do the deal. He has crossed the climate Rubicon.

Climate Progress’ Joe Romm predicts that Sen. Graham’s support would bring along as many as six other Republican senators. While the Democratic caucus remains split along geographical lines, that level of Republican support would make it extremely likely that 60 senators would at least vote to cut off any filibuster attempts.

(Note that the Senate earlier rejected any possibility of passing climate legislation through Senate budget rules that preclude filibusters. It is truly sixty or Bust.)