WEEK 6 - NFL Breakdown Sheets

The low rushing efficiency has to due with Mendenhall not playing. With Big Ben having an actual running game sets up his play action that he loves. I think the safer play here is the over as I see the Titans being able to move the ball vs this over rated defense and Steelers moving it vs a team that doesn't play defense. BOL on you wager though

Wow. Great night. Tennessee covered the spread and my models had this game perfectly. Projected spread between +4.5 and PK and a total in the upper 40's. I also hit the moneyline for an action wager, but I won't count it towards my posted record since I was not around to post this evening. A result like this gives me a lot of confidence going into the weekend. Still locked into Denver +2.5 on MNF as my only play right now.

Hey Silly, congrats on the great streak. Wondering which teams you are leaning towards for Sunday. Any advice? I'm leaning towards Cowboys, Jets, ATL, and Under on the Mia game.

I can see reasons to back both sides in the Cowboy's/Ravens game and I think the line is pretty sharp so I'm staying away personally.

I really like the Jets. More as a great spot to fade the Colts. Huge let down angle after beating the Packers the week prior on top of the loss of their head coach to cancer. Things should catch up to them on the road in New York. Rex should have a defensive scheme ready to handle Luck. Jets by 7.

Atlanta has an incredible offense that will keep them in any game. If the Packers in 2010 didn't convince you, or the Patriots in 2011, the Falcons in 2012 will earn themselves a first round bye because of an offense that wins games, not an elite defense.

I just don't know jack about Miami and I live in this city. I don't see myself betting on any game they play anytime soon. I don't even know what to tell you about this game.

I'll have more thoughts on Sunday's games posted during the day tomorrow.

I can see reasons to back both sides in the Cowboy's/Ravens game and I think the line is pretty sharp so I'm staying away personally.

I really like the Jets. More as a great spot to fade the Colts. Huge let down angle after beating the Packers the week prior on top of the loss of their head coach to cancer. Things should catch up to them on the road in New York. Rex should have a defensive scheme ready to handle Luck. Jets by 7.

Atlanta has an incredible offense that will keep them in any game. If the Packers in 2010 didn't convince you, or the Patriots in 2011, the Falcons in 2012 will earn themselves a first round bye because of an offense that wins games, not an elite defense.

I just don't know jack about Miami and I live in this city. I don't see myself betting on any game they play anytime soon. I don't even know what to tell you about this game.

I'll have more thoughts on Sunday's games posted during the day tomorrow.

Thanks for the insight Silly. I'll be checking tomorrow to see your reasoning for Sunday's picks. And great work on the NFL breakdown sheets!

I find it very unlikely that the game crosses into PK or reverses favorites unless a significant starter for the Chargers unexpectedly gets scratched. At +1 (+100), it may be worth waiting to see if the line moves in your favor back to +2 or even a more lucrative moneyline. Remember, it's a Monday night game.. a lot - and I mean A LOT of money will be wagered on this game between now and kickoff. It's not unlikely that the line moves several times in both directions.. in fact - I expect some volatility with the spread set under 3.

Nice work, could you give me your thoughts on Arz and the total please?

All the statistics point to Arizona. But if there's a week that you can expect the Bills to give it their all, it's this week. If the Bills D-Line decides to play a full 60 minutes, Arizona's offensive line might not be able to contain the pass rush. Could get ugly for the Cardinals. I had Arizona -8 in this game, but it's probably not a smart game to be betting on. There are better opportunities out there.

Sill, what do you think of DET. I am thinking of playing them simply based on motivation. An article came out from an unknow GM calling out the DET GM/Coach and players basically saying that DET was overrated. While I agree with the unnamed GM, I think this will be a motivation point for DET coming off a bye, any thoughts?

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