Russia Offer on Syria Shifts Debate Before Obama’s Speech

Demonstrators rally in support of possible U.S. military action in Syria, on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., September 9, 2013. Photographer: Drew Angerer/Getty Images

Sept. 10 (Bloomberg) -- A Russian bid to get Syria to
surrender its chemical weapons shifted the debate as President
Barack Obama prepared to make his case for U.S. military strikes
in a nationally televised address tonight.

While questioning whether Syrian President Bashar al-Assad
would yield control of his weapons stocks, Obama said on ABC
News that a U.S. attack “absolutely” would be put on hold if
Syria followed through on the proposal from its powerful ally.

“We have to be skeptical because this is not how we’ve
seen them operate over the last couple of years,” Obama said in
a separate interview with NBC News.

Obama answered questions on six television news programs
yesterday as part of an administration-wide attempt to rally
public and congressional support for a U.S. military response to
an alleged chemical attack in Syria last month. His request for
congressional authorization for a strike is meeting increased
resistance from lawmakers. Polls released yesterday showed
public opposition growing.

The Russian-backed offer, stemming from a remark by U.S.
Secretary of State John Kerry, represents a possible diplomatic
solution to a standoff that also risks undermining other parts
of Obama’s second-term agenda.

The president acknowledged that his support in Congress for
military action is weak. He said he hasn’t decided whether to
proceed with a strike even if lawmakers turn him down.

Lobby Congress

Obama planned to lobby members of the Senate today in a
visit to Capitol Hill, meeting first with the Senate Democrats
and then Senate Republicans in two closed-door sessions.

He is using the time to personally press lawmakers to pass
his plan for limited, targeted strikes against Syria for using
chemical weapons against its own people on Aug. 21, according to
a U.S. government investigation.

Syria said it has agreed to place its chemical weapons
under some form of international supervision, a development that
that White House finds encouraging but is also viewing with
caution.

“It is the credible threat of action by the U.S. that has
brought about this potential diplomatic breakthrough,”
spokesman Jay Carney said today on MSNBC. “We have to be
cautious, but we have to follow through.”

Congress should keep the heat on Syria and vote to
authorize military action, Carney said.

‘No’ Votes

“Before this morning, the Syrian government had never even
acknowledged they possessed chemical weapons, now they have,
Carney said in MSNBC. ‘‘We have some potential progress on the
diplomatic front.’’

‘‘I knew when I said I was going to present this to
Congress that this would be challenging,’’ Obama said on PBS
yesterday.

A Bloomberg News tally now shows a majority in the House --
218 members -- would vote ‘‘no’’ or are currently leaning
against approving a use-of-force resolution. With two vacancies
in the 435-seat chamber, it would take a majority of 217 votes
to approve or reject military action.

Public opinion is running increasingly against a military
action. A Pew Research Center-USA Today poll found the
proportion of Americans against a U.S. strike grew to 63 percent
from 48 percent over the past week. The heightened opposition
was across party lines in the survey, conducted Sept. 4-8.
Support was unchanged at 28 percent. Six in 10 said there are no
good options for the U.S.

‘Potentially Positive’

Obama called the opening by Russia, Syria’s most powerful
ally, a ‘‘potentially positive development’’ and said the U.S.
would engage with Russia and other governments see if something
that is ‘‘enforceable and serious’’ can be negotiated.

In Moscow, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the proposal
wasn’t a solo Russian effort, and that it emerged ‘‘from
contacts we had with our American colleagues.’’ He said Russia
is working on a ‘‘clear, implementable and detailed plan.’’

France said it will seek to ‘‘nail down’’ the offer by
including it in the text of a resolution to be submitted to the
United Nations Security Council. The draft also will call for
Assad’s government to be punished for the chemical attack,
French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said.

Obama said he wants to deter any future use of chemical
weapons by Syria or other regimes. The U.S. says Assad’s forces
are responsible for the use of chemical weapons in an Aug. 21
attack near Damascus that killed at least 1,400 people,
including more than 400 children.

Probable Culprit

In a report published on its website today, New York-based
Human Rights Watch said the Syrian government is the probable
culprit in the chemical attack. The group analyzed witness
accounts, remnants of the weapons systems used and victims’
medical symptoms, according to the report.

Visiting Beijing, U.S. Under Secretary of Defense for
Policy James Miller said he told Chinese officials in talks
yesterday that they and the rest of the world have an interest
in a strong response against Syria.

‘‘I emphasized the massive chemical weapons arsenal that
North Korea has and that we didn’t want to live in a world in
which North Korea felt that threshold for chemical weapons use
had been lowered,” Miller said.

With a Senate vote on the military force authorization
coming as soon as this week, some lawmakers embraced the Russian
proposal from Lavrov to start negotiations with Assad’s regime
to establish international control over any chemical weapons in
Syria.

Way Out

“I believe this is sincere,” Democratic Senator Dianne
Feinstein, who has backed Obama’s position, said at the Capitol
last night. “I have talked to the Russian ambassador today, and
he told me his government is very interested in getting this
done, so that’s good.”

Kentucky Republican Senator Rand Paul, who opposes a U.S.
strike, called the proposal “a good step forward.” House Armed
Services Committee Chairman Buck McKeon, a California
Republican, told reporters “there are people that are looking
for any way to get out of this.”

Senator John McCain has been pressing for a more aggressive
U.S. response to the 2 1/2-year-old Syrian civil said he is
“very, very skeptical” that Russia can make good on its offer.
The Arizona Republican said it shouldn’t delay congressional
authorization for the president.

“It’s a reason for senators to vote for it because it’s
obviously the threat of this that has caused them to even make
this concession,” he said.

‘Every’ Bit

Democratic Senators Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Heidi
Heitkamp of North Dakota last week circulated an alternative
proposal that would give the Syrian government 45 days to
endorse an international ban on chemical weapons -- or risk U.S.
military action. Manchin said the Senate’s Democratic leadership
promised to allow a vote on the alternative.

The proposal from Lavrov came after a statement from Kerry
at a briefing yesterday in London with U.K. Foreign Secretary
William Hague.

Kerry, asked what could stop a U.S. military strike, said
Assad “could turn over every single bit of his chemical weapons
to the international community in the next week.”

“But he isn’t about to do it, and it can’t be done,
obviously,” he added.

Jen Psaki, a State Department spokeswoman, said Kerry’s
statement wasn’t a proposal, just a “rhetorical argument.”

Immediate Response

In Moscow, Lavrov seized upon it and, after meeting with
his Syrian counterpart, said that Russia would “immediately
start working with Damascus” if international control of
chemical weapons in Syria would forestall a military strike.

Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Muallem welcomed the
opening and called it a constructive proposal to “prevent
American aggression against our people.”

At the United Nations, Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon told
reporters he was “considering urging the Security Council to
demand immediate transfer of Syria’s chemical weapons and
chemical precursor stocks to places inside Syria where they can
be safely destroyed.”

Obama said he talked with Russian President Vladimir Putin
about attempts to put Syria’s chemical arms under international
control when the two conferred last week at a summit of the
Group of 20 nations in St. Petersburg, Russia.

“This is a continuation of conversations I’ve had with
President Putin for quite some time,” Obama said on PBS.

Assad, before the Russian proposal was made, said the U.S.
should “expect every action” in retaliation for a strike.

“There are going to be repercussions,” Assad said in an
interview with Charlie Rose on CBS’s “This Morning” program,
an excerpt of which was aired yesterday.

Obama dismissed the risk of Syria retaliating.

“Syria doesn’t have significant capabilities to retaliate
against us,” he said on NBC. “Iran does. But Iran is not going
to risk a war with the United States over this.”