Canterbury Park Picks & Analysis — Thursday, July 27, 2017

It’s a Thursday, which means it’s time for some nightttime action at Canterbury Park! Canterbury’s one of the best nighttime tracks in the country, and we’re happy to have Dave Handeland (@SuperStatsDave) providing FREE picks & analysis of the ten-race card. The first race is scheduled for 6:40 PM CDT.

Take it away, Dave!

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After a little rain early in the week, it should shape up to be a beautiful night in Minnesota on Thursday. Once again the early pick 4 consists of a trio of turf races including an extremely talented group running in race 4.

I’ll be doing the prerace show from Canterbury Park with @MrB_CBYanalyst so tune into the prerace show around 6PM CST and check it out. Last year we teamed up to give six top pick winners between us on the eight race card (including nailing the final five races)

Season Stats:

Top Pick winners: 14/49 (29%)

One of Top 3 picks winning: 30/49 (61%)

Race 1 (QH’s) 6-7-4

#6 Chicalota will try to go 2-2 and Nik Goodwin wins at 26% for R.Allen Hybsha

#7 Valiant Story has been tough in last two starts but the 8/5 ML is risky

#4 Apparent Danger won last out. The Oscar Delgado/Tomey Swan pairing is 2-2

Race 2 (QH’s) 3-1-2

#3 Bileve is spellcheck’s nightmare but won a 14K allowance and now drops to claiming ranks

#1 Mary’s Ice Dancer is making 2nd start off layoff, much easier field than last race

#2 Hiclass Man has the Delgado/Swan pairing. If they win race 1, then watch out

Race 3 (turf) 3-4-5

#3 Jam N Addy is going to the be pacesetter in this one mile turf race in a six horse race that lacks speed. If Andrew Ramgeet can get away and run alone I think he’ll just keep going. He’s lost to a pair of these horses when the races have been washed off the turf so now he’s going to get his shot a redemption if it stays dry.

#4 More on Tap drops down to the 20K claiming ranks where he won two races back versus a few of these when the race came off the turf. The 6-1 ML is a pretty nice price in a race without any massive favorites. Leslie Mawing takes over for Hugo Sanchez which is interesting due to Mawing and trainer Tim Padilla not having joined forces before. Will be closing down the stretch.

#5 Vanderbilt Beach is a MN Bred taking on all comers here. The ML favorite at 5/2 might be a little aggressive as the runner appears better as a dirt runner than the turf. Also, trainer Tony Rengstorf is 0-18 on the Canterbury turf this season.

Race 4 (turf) 5-3-2

#5 Hay Dakota won the 100K Mystic Lake Mile a little over a month ago which was his 2nd start off the layoff. Denny Velazquez knows when to time his runs with this Grade 3 winner and with 4 wins in 5 starts at this distance, this seems like the ideal spot to notch another win. Despite only seven entries, this is a fantastic 35K optional claiming race.

#3 Patriots Rule won a 150K race at Del Mar at this time last year and has beaten Hay Dakota already once this meet. Robertino Diodoro trains this one along with Pilot House and it appears that Pilot House will be sent to keep Majectic Pride company and thus soften it up so Patriots Rule can close. Took part in five straight stakes races in CA between 2016 and 2017 so has faced much better.

#2 Majestic Pride was the 2016 Horse of the Meet at Canterbury and has a win and two 2nd place finishes so far this meet. The concerns here are that Quincy Hamilton will now be riding due to the Dean Butler injury and that Pilot House is entered to make it not a majestic evening. The other concern is getting caught in a crazy speed duel with Pilot House which could leave him tired late.

Race 5 (turf) 5-8-7

#5 Datt Town was previously trained by Ian Wilkes and had a couple of solid tries down at Gulfstream Park this winter at the 75K optional claiming level and now is 12-1 in this wide open 12.5K claiming turf race. The speed numbers have plummeted since moving north from Florida but any sort of a return to that form make her extremely tough.

#8 Battle Chic broke her maiden last time out and might be figuring this racing thing out as her form keeps improving. Leslie Mawing will try to lead them from start to finish and this is not going to be the most difficult group to beat. She could get very brave once again on the front end.

#7 Top Hat Wildcat has been the victim of two bad trips in her two Canterbury starts and jockey Janine Smith will try to reverse the bad luck in this race. The connections have tried the 20K and 16K levels this summer and now drop again to try and get their picture taken. The 3-1 ML might cause this one to get a little more action at the windows than might be needed.

Race #6 1-12-13

#1 Victory Ice is a filly who could win by 2-3 lengths or miss the board completely. She is 0-12 in her career and made her 2017 debut running 2nd at the 10K MC level which inspired the connections to return to the MSW ranks where she ran 3rd. Now they drop back to the 10K level to try and end the losing. Nik Goodwin will try and wire this field that is a combined 0/49 in lifetime races with just 12 combined 2nd/3rd place finishes among them all.

#12 Dakota Mar Lou makes her 2nd career start for the suddenly hot David Van Winkle barn. Loveberry was on board in the debut 11 days ago as she went off at 5-1 but was never involved. With the 1st start jitters out of the way maybe Loveberry can get her going.

#13 Caballo River is projected to be part of the early pace and it always seems like early pace can be key in the low maiden claiming ranks as these horses tend to not like passing. Kaitlin Bedford was near the pace with this runner a few weeks ago vs a runner who has turned out to be pretty decent.

Race #7 4-3-5

#4 Line of Grace is one of two Mac Robertson entries here and Mac uses Alex Canchari this time after using Cecily Evans the previous four races. This massive jockey upgrade along with a horse that appears to craving extra distance makes this runner enticing. Canchari should be sitting off the pace early and be pouncing as they hit the stretch.

#3 Flowers for Teagan is the other Robertson runner here and when he enters multiple horses he does so expecting to have his entries complete the exacta. I’ve switched my thinking on Mac this year with multiple entries due them being “live” when together. She broke her maiden at this distance, then tried the turf and now returns for win #2. The 6-1 ML could be a bouquet of winning.

#5 Da Kleinen Schatzi is a grinder who in her only dirt route ever took on stakes company and was pretty competitive. This year she hasn’t been the speed horse that she was in 2016 so it’ll be interesting to see how Loveberry tries to win this. I have a feeling that this one will be running in the mid-pack throughout.

Race 8 6-2-1

#6 Snoose Sasa looks to give Canchari and Robertson the Race 7/8 DD as they take on seven maidens. After three different jockeys in his 1st three races, Canchari finally hops back on which I take as a good sign. Canchari should stalk just to the outside of the speed and look to take over as the speed quits.

#2 Spur loves to tease his fans with early speed and then throw on the ol E-Brake mid-stretch when it looks like he cannot lose. It’s amazing, as each loss is more wild than the previous loss. If the win is going to happen, its got to take place either at 5.5 or 5 furlongs and this time gets the 5.5 distance. We’ll see if Andrew Ramgeet can make Spur forget to use the mental E-brake.

#1 E O S Gary is an enticing 12-1 runner as QH trainer Edward Ross Hardy sends out this 1st timer. My theory on this is that if there is ONE thing this horse should be able to do, is that it’s going to at least break well and have early speed. The works show that this gelding does have upside so he is worth using in the exotics.

Race 9 3-7-2

#3 Aparri will look to give trainer Edwin Cornier his 1st win at Canterbury this season which is a little scary as the selection. This is a wide open affair and any one of the entrants has a legit shot at winning. This is the lowest level of racing this Aparri has seen since 2016 when…she won! Leslie Mawing will try to make that happen again.

#7 Sajara will try to ride the confidence from winning last out as she tries to repeat here. The one problem with that is trainer Ronald Westerman is a 6% trainer when trying to win back to back races. I always say that Israel Hernandez always seems like he is in the middle of any large P3 or P4 and he did that last Sunday when he stole a race at 20-1. Izzy doesn’t get the bet mounts but he can win.

#2 Maddymax has finished in the money 7 times in 8 starts at Canterbury so we know she loves the track. With Dean Butler out due to injury, we see Martin Escobar get the mount and Escobar is 1-42 this year at the track. That 2% is tough to hop on board with a lot of confidence behind it. She’ll be part of the early speed mix and would not be a shock to see win this.

Race 10 5-2-6

#5 Tanzen is every bit of the 4/5 ML odds as Robertino Diodoro drops down a level after winning last week in a race that wasn’t overly contested. Andrew Ramgeet will try to be the 3rd different jockey to win with Tanzen in the last four starts as this runner has enjoyed the Canterbury track after spending the fall and spring traveling around.

#2 Voodoo Storm was claimed during a win at the 6250 level, then won next out at the 7500 level and followed that up with 3 straight performances in the mid-pack against much stiffer competition. Hugo Sanchez was the jockey back on 5/12 when this guy defeated Tanzen but Tanzen got revenge in the rematch. Will be dueling Tanzen early and hoping to survive.

#6 Tour de Rock is another dropping to his lowest level in 2017 and will attempt to clean up the mess if a speed duel does develop among the top 2 picks. Jareth Loveberry has been aboard for both wins in 2017 so he has a good feel on when to push the right button.

Bets

Race 1 Pick 3 3,4,6,7 with 3 with 2,3,4,5 $8

Race 3 Pick 4 2,3,4,5 with 3,5 with 1,5,6,7,8,9,11 with 1,12 $56

Race 7 Pick 4 3,4,5 with 1,2,3,6 with 1,2,3,4,6,7 with 2,5 $72

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