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Sea surface temperatures (SST) are more than 1.0ºC above-average across muchof the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.

Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010 and transition to ENSO-neutral conditions by Northern Hemisphere summer 2010.

El Niño Updates – Previous 5 Issues:

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Serial No 1,601. Starting April 2010, each entry on this blog has a unique serial number. If any of the numbers are missing, it may mean that the corresponding entry has been blocked by Google/the authorities in your country. Please drop us a line if you detect any anomaly/missing number(s).

SST Departures (ºC) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were more than 1.0°C above average between 165°E and 120°W and near the western S. American coast.

Global SST Departures (ºC)During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans.

Weekly SST Departures (ºC) for the Last Four Weeks

During the last four weeks, positive SST anomalies have persisted across the central, east-central, and far eastern Pacific.

During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies are nearly unchanged across much of the Pacific.

Global SST Departures (ºC)During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans.

Central & Eastern Pacific Upper-Ocean (0-300 m) Weekly Heat Content AnomaliesSince April 2009, the upper-ocean heat content has been above average across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Sharp increases in heat content during June and October 2009 coincide with the development and subsequent strengthening of El Niño, respectively. Since late February 2010, the heat content anomalies have decreased.

Sub-Surface Temperature Departures (ºC) in the Equatorial Pacific

Since mid-February 2010, positive subsurface temperature anomalies increased in association with the downwelling phase of an oceanic Kelvin wave

Recently, the Kelvin wave has increased temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. The upwelling phase of the Kelvin wave has contributed to below-average temperatures at depth in the central Pacific.

Click image to enlarge.

Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 DaysDuring February, strong mid-latitude westerlies(East Asian and Atlantic jets) were accompanied by troughs overthe eastern North Pacific and near the eastern U.S. The anomalous troughs were associated with below-average temperatures over much of the central and eastern United States. At higher latitudes, strong ridging was associated with above-average temperatures across most of Canada. Since early March, the flow across the N. Pacific and Atlantic has weakened. This pattern has contributed to below-average temperatures across the southern U.S. while ridging and above-average temperatures were observed over Canada and the northeastern U.S.

Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook

A majority of the models indicate that the Niño-3.4 temperature departures will gradually decrease at least into the summer.

The models are split with the majority indicating ENSO-neutral conditions by May-July 2010, which persistinto the fall. Several models also suggest the potential of continued El Niño conditions or the development of La Niña conditions during the late summer or fall.

SST Outlook: NCEP CFS Forecast Issued 4 April 2010

Summary
El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
Sea surface temperatures (SST) are more than 1.0ºCabove-average across much of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue at least through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.

Unless otherwise stated, information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW

SST Departures (ºC) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were more than 1.0°C above average between 165°E and 120°W and near the western S. American coast.

Global SST Departures (ºC)During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans.

Weekly SST Departures (ºC) for the Last Four Weeks

During the last four weeks, positive SST anomalies have persisted across the central, east-central, and far eastern Pacific.

During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies are nearly unchanged across much of the Pacific.

Global SST Departures (ºC)During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans.

Sub-Surface Temperature Departures (ºC) in the Equatorial Pacific

Since mid-February 2010, the positive subsurface temperature anomalies increased in association with the downwelling phase of an oceanic Kelvin wave

Recently, the Kelvin wave has increased temperatures in the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean.

Click images to enlarge.

Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook

A majority of the models indicate that the Niño-3.4 temperature departures will gradually decrease at least into the summer.

The models are split with the majority indicating ENSO-neutral conditions by May-July 2010, which persists into the fall. Several models also suggest the potential of continued El Niño conditions or the development of La Niña conditions during the late summer or fall.

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

Recent Evolution of Equatorial Pacific SST Departures (ºC)
Since the beginning of June 2009, SST anomalies have been at least +0.5°C across most of the equatorial Pacific. During December 2009, positive SST anomalies increased across much of the equatorial Pacific. From late December 2009 to mid-February 2010, positive SST anomalies decreased across portions of the central and east-central Pacific. Recently, positive SST anomalies are nearly unchanged across the central and east-central Pacific (area pointed to by red arrow in the diagram below).

SST Departures (ºC) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 WeeksWeeksDuring the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were more than 1.0°C above average between 170°E and 125°W and near the western S. American coast.

Global SST Departures (ºC)During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the central and eastern Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans.

Weekly SST Departures (ºC) for the Last Four Weeks

During the last four weeks, positive SST anomalies have persisted across the central, east-central, and far eastern Pacific.

During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies are nearly unchanged across much of the Pacific, except for an area of warming west of the Date Line.

Sub-Surface Temperature Departures (ºC) in the Equatorial Pacific

In mid January 2010, positive subsurface temperature anomalies increased in the eastern equatorial Pacific in association with the downwelling phase of an oceanic Kelvin wave.

Since mid-February 2010, the downwellingphase of another oceanic Kelvin wave has increased temperatures in the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean.

Summary

El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

Sea surface temperatures (SST) are more than 1.0ºCabove-average across much of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.

Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue at least through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.

Unless otherwise stated, information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW

SST Departures (ºC) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 WeeksDuring the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were more than 1.0°C above average between 170°E and 125°W and near the western S. American coast.

Global SST DeparturesDuring the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the central and eastern Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans.

Weekly SST Departures for the Last Four Weeks

Source: Climate Prediction Center/NCEP

Summary

El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

Sea surface temperatures (SST) are more than 1.0ºCabove-average across much of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.

Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue at least through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.

Unless otherwise stated, information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW

SST Departures (ºC) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 WeeksDuring the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were more than 1.0°C above average between 175°E and 125°W and near the western S. American coast.

Global SST Departures (ºC) – Click images to enlargeDuring the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the central and eastern Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans.

Central & Eastern Pacific Upper-Ocean (0-300 m) Weekly Heat Content Anomalies
Since April 2009, the upper-ocean heat content has been above average across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Sharp increases in heat content during June and October coincide with the development and subsequent strengthening of El Niño, respectively. Recently, heat content anomalies have increased again in association with an oceanic Kelvin wave.

Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 DaysFrom late December to early January, strong mid-latitude westerlies(East Asian and Atlantic jets) were accompanied by troughs over the North Pacific and the eastern U.S. The troughs contributed to below-average temperatures across portions of the U.S. At higher latitudes, strong ridging led to above-average temperatures across parts of Canada. During mid to late January, the East Asian jet extended farther east and a strong trough became established over the eastern Pacific. Over N. America, strong ridging contributed to above-average temperatures over much of N. America. During February, troughing and below-average temperatures became reestablished over the middle latitudes, along with ridging and above-average temperatures over higher latitudes.

Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook

A majority of the models indicate that the Niño-3.4 temperature departures will gradually decrease at least into the summer.

The models are split with the majority indicating ENSO-neutral conditions by May-July 2010 and persisting into the Fall. Several models also suggest the potential of continued El Niño conditions or the development of La Niña conditions during the Fall.

Figure provided by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society (updated 16 Feb 2010).

Summary

El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

Sea surface temperatures (SST) are more than 1.0ºCabove-average across much of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.

Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.

Unless otherwise stated, information and images on this page are sourced from Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NOAA. Edited by FEWW

SST Departures (ºC) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were more than 1.0°C above average between 175°E and 125°W.

Global SST Departures (ºC)During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the central and eastern Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans.

Weekly SST Departures (oC) for the Last Four Weeks

Weeks•During the last four weeks, positive SST anomalies have extended from 170°E eastward to the South American coast.

During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies have decreased across the central Pacific and increased in the extreme eastern Pacific

Sub-Surface Temperature Departures (ºC) in the Equatorial Pacific

In mid January 2010, positive subsurface temperature anomalies increased in the eastern equatorial Pacific in association with the downwellingphase of an oceanic Kelvin wave.

The most recent period (below) indicates another downwellingphase of an oceanic Kelvin wave is increasing temperatures in the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean.

Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 DaysFrom mid-December to early January, strong mid-latitude westerlies(East Asian and Atlantic jets) were accompanied by troughs over the North Pacific and the eastern U.S. The troughs contributed to below-average temperatures across portions of the U.S. At higher latitudes, strong ridging led to above-average temperatures across parts of Canada. Since mid January,the East Asian jet extended farther east and a trough became established over the eastern Pacific. Over N. America, strong ridging over Canada contributed to above-average temperatures across Canada and the northwestern U.S. During early February, troughing and below-average temperatures became reestablished over the eastern and central United States.

Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Outlook

A majority of the models indicate that the Niño-3.4 temperature departures will gradually decrease at least into the summer.

The models are split with the majority indicating ENSO-neutral conditions by May-July 2010 and persisting into the Fall. Several models also suggest the potential of continued El Niño conditions or the development of La Niña conditions during the Fall.

Summary

El Niño is present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

Sea surface temperatures (SST) are more than 1.0ºC above-average across much of the central and east-central equatorial Pacific.

Based on current observations and dynamical model forecasts, El Niño is expected to continue at least into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2010.

SST Departures (ºC) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
Equatorial SSTs were more than 1.0°C above average between 175°E and 125°W.

Click image to enlarge.

Weekly SST Departures (ºC) for the Last Four Weeks

During the last four weeks, positive SST anomalies have weakened across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies have decreased across much of the central and eastern Pacific.

Sub-Surface Temperature Departures (ºC) in the Equatorial Pacific

Click image to enlarge.

In early January 2010, positive subsurface temperature anomalies increased in the central equatorial Pacific in association with the downwelling phase of an oceanic Kelvin wave.

The most recent period (below) indicates a broad area of above-average subsurface temperatures across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

Click image to enlarge.

Atmospheric Circulation over the North Pacific & North America During the Last 60 DaysClick image to enlarge. From mid-December to mid-January, strong mid-latitude westerlies (East Asian and Atlantic jets) were accompanied by troughs over the North Pacific and North America. The troughs contributed to below-average temperatures across portions of the U.S. and Canada. At higher latitudes, strong ridging led to above-average temperatures across Alaska and northern Canada. During late January, the East Asian jet extended farther east and a trough became established over the eastern Pacific. Over much of N. America, strong ridging over Canada contributed to above-average temperatures across Canada and portions of the U.S. During early February, troughing and below-average temperatures became reestablished over the United States.

Click image to enlarge.

Intraseasonal Variability

Intraseasonal variability in the atmosphere (wind and pressure), which is often related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), can significantly impact surface and subsurface conditions across the Pacific Ocean.

Global SST Departures (°C)During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the central and eastern Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans.

Weekly SST Departures (ºC) for the Last Four Weeks

During the last four weeks, positive SST anomalies have weakened across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies have decreased across the east-central and eastern Pacific.

Click images to enlarge

From December to early January, strong mid-latitude westerlies (East Asian and Atlantic jets) were accompanied by troughs over the North Pacific and North America. The troughs contributed to below-average temperatures across portions of the U.S. and Canada. At higher latitudes, strong ridging led to above-average temperatures across Alaska and northern Canada. Since mid January, the East Asian jet has extended farther east and a trough has become established over the eastern Pacific. Overmuch of N. America, strong ridging over Canada has contributed to above-average temperatures across Canada and portions of the contiguous U.S. This recent pattern is typical of El Niño.

During the last four weeks, positive SST anomalies have weakened across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies have decreased across the east-central and eastern Pacific.

SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 WeeksDuring the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were more than 2.0°C above average between 170°W and 150°W.

Click on the images to enlarge

Global SST Departures (°C)During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above-average across the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans.

Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks

During the last four weeks, positive SST anomalies have weakened across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

During the last 30 days, equatorial SST anomalies have decreased across the east-central and eastern Pacific.

Central & Eastern Pacific Upper-Ocean (0-300 m) Weekly Heat Content AnomaliesSince April 2009, the upper-ocean heat content has been above average across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Sharp increases in heat content during June and October coincide with the development and subsequent strengthening of El Niño, respectively.