Gray Maynard and Clay Guida might just be the best lightweights in the world not named Frankie Edgar and Benson Henderson.

It was Maynard who fell short to Edgar when the belt was on the line, and Guida who faltered to Henderson when a shot at the belt was on the line.

Neither scenario is in play Friday when Maynard and Guida meet in the headliner of UFC on FX 4, but that doesn’t mean the winner is far away from a No. 1 contender’s position.

UFC on FX 4 takes place at Revel Atlantic City in New Jersey. The event’s main card airs live on FX following prelims on FUEL TV and Facebook.

Before Maynard (10-1-1 MMA, 8-1-1 UFC) or Guida (29-12 MMA, 9-6 UFC) can be called a contender, though, another logjam needs to be unworked: Edgar vs. Henderson II (at UFC 150), which aims to settle a contentious decision earned by Henderson in their first meeting at UFC 144. Then it’s Nate Diaz, whose career resurgence threatens to steal the thunder of his inscrutable brother Nick.

And after that? Most would say Anthony Pettis, who has been penciled in for a UFC title shot three times and, for various reasons, never gotten the chance.

OK, so there are a few hurdles and scenarios to consider. Still, Maynard and Guida are arguably No. 5 and No. 6 on the totem pole, and who wins impressively on Friday will be within a year of a title shot assuming injuries don’t push the schedule back. That, of course, never happens these days.

On paper, Maynard is the favorite. He’s only fallen short once in the UFC and beaten a long list of top-tier talent, including Edgar in their first meeting. Current odds give him about a 75 percent chance of winning the fight.

Statistically, Maynard’s advantage is in grappling. He’s able to take down opponents more frequently (55 percent takedowns completed vs. Guida’s 40 percent) and he’s better able to stay on his feet (85 percent of takedowns defended vs. 68 percent for Guida).

Although he lacks in the record department, the bouncy and durable Guida makes up ground in the striking department. He runs virtually neck and neck with Maynard in strikes landed and average strikes absorbed per minute, according to FightMetric. He attempts more submissions than Maynard. And he’s a bonus machine, too, with six awards for “Fight of the Night” and two for “Submission of the Night.”

Only two people have managed to stop Guida in the octagon: Roger Huerta and Kenny Florian.

A psychological advantage may go to Guida, as well. Maynard suffered the first loss of his 13-fight career when Edgar knocked him out this past October. Meanwhile, Guida took current champ Henderson the distance and availed himself well despite losing on the judges’ scorecards.

Maynard should be the more efficient striker in the pocket and able to take down Guida. But Guida can’t be counted out because he’s simply a great scrambler who often turns bad situations into good ones. This fight could be closer than most think.

Other main card bouts

Spencer Fisher (24-8 MMA, 9-7 UFC) vs. Sam Stout (17-7-1 MMA, 6-6 UFC): Even though these two lightweights are separated by eight years in age, both have racked up a tremendous number of miles on their respective bodies from being fan-friendly sluggers. The first time they met, it was Stout who narrowly eked out a split decision. But really, it could have gone either way, and in a rematch a little more than a year later, Fisher cruised to a decision win.

Stout, who makes his second appearance since the death of his longtime coach Shawn Tompkins, might have a slight edge in durability in this rubber match. It’s been five years since they most recently fought, and Fisher hasn’t held up as well while losing four of his past five outings. Fisher’s best bet this time around might be to take Stout to the mat and submit him. A slugfest favors the Canadian Stout.

Brian Ebersole (49-14-1 MMA, 3-0 UFC) vs. T.J. Waldburger (15-6 MMA, 3-1 UFC): Age and experience could play a big factor in this welterweight bout. The 31-year-old Ebersole has more than three times the pro fights of the 24-year-old Waldburger, and there’s the usual double-edged sword of age vs. experience. It’s unlikely that the submission-savvy Ebersole is going to get caught in one of Waldburger’s explosive submission holds. But Waldburger could catch him if the fight stays standing. Most likely, Ebersole will look to put Waldburger on his back, avoid submission danger, and use ground and pound to earn a TKO stoppage. Waldburger is better served keeping his distance and sniping at the veteran with strikes. A win for Ebersole would be 11 in a row and an improbable run from a guy most thought wouldn’t make it to the big show.

Ross Pearson (13-5 MMA, 5-2 UFC) vs. Cub Swanson (16-5 MMA, 1-1 UFC): After dropping to featherweight and moving to the U.S. full-time to train, Pearson hopes to make it two in a row in his new division. He meets Swanson, who recently earned the first UFC win of his career with an impressive knockout of George Roop. The tough Swanson availed himself well against Ricardo Lamas, but his weakness in the grappling and submission department reared its head, and he was forced to submit in the second round. That won’t be much of a problem with Pearson, who loves to kickbox with opponents. Swanson is aggressive and frequently flies by the seat of his pants, which should be a nice contrast to the measured style of Pearson. In a pure kickboxing bout, the Brit should take it by staying conservative, but the always-dangerous Swanson just has to land a big shot to turn things around.

Hioki’s final test before title shot

Hatsu Hioki (26-4-2 MMA, 2-0 UFC) vs. Ricardo Lamas (11-2 MMA, 2-0 UFC): This preliminary-card featherweight bout is a final vetting for the ranked Hioki, who despite back-to-back wins turned down a title shot against champion Jose Aldo. Another win, and he’ll fight for the belt, which means Lamas, who’s earned back-to-back wins in his short UFC career, has the chance to play spoiler. The WEC vet should give the Japanese standout a run for his money on the mat, where Hioki has previously dominated against striking specialists. An upset is very possible.

UFC women’s bantamweight champion Ronda Rousey is probably the greatest female fighter on the planet, which is a tremendous feat. So why are we seemingly so obsessed with arguing about whether she could beat up men?