In One Chart: A surging stock market belies the biggest disagreement between CEOs and consumers about the U.S. economy on record

The stock market was in full flight Thursday, with all three main U.S. benchmarks poised to end at their highest levels ever, but those glorious gains come amid an uneasy gap in what consumers and C-suiters think about future of the U.S. economy.

Deutsche Bank Securities’ Torsten Sløk notes that consumers appear to be much more optimistic about the outlook for the economy than chief executive officers, with the gap between their economic outlooks hitting the widest on record, based on data from the Conference Board (see attached chart).

Consumer confidence in October slipped to 125.9 from 126.3 in September, according to the Conference Board’s most recent report. The consumer confidence survey measures how Americans view their own financial well-being, job prospects and overall business conditions.

Still, consumer confidence levels are at levels that suggest that Americans are still spending enough to keep the economy out of recession.

Meanwhile, CEO confidence tumbled to a reading of 34 in the third quarter from 43 in the prior period (a reading of more than 50 points reflects more positive than negative responses), marking the lowest level since the first quarter of 2009.

So why are CEOs so much more glum? Sløk says it is all about trade.

“Trade war uncertainty [has been] pressing down CEO confidence. But having little impact on consumer confidence,” he said.

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