College students less excited about election

Fewer involved in campaigns or even plan to vote this year

By Brian ReynoldsStaff Writer

Published: Monday, October 15, 2012 at 3:30 a.m.

Last Modified: Sunday, October 14, 2012 at 11:38 p.m.

TUSCALOOSA | On Tuesday, about 20 members of the College Republicans packed a side room of Wilhagan’s in downtown Tuscaloosa to plan their contribution to the Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan presidential ticket.

Like other activists in the state, the group has been working the phones to contact voters in swing states like Florida and Virginia.

“Last week, we had 30 people coming out willing to make phone calls,” said Regan Williams, a junior from Vestavia Hills and chairman of the UA College Republicans. “I feel like we could have gotten a lot more had we not had some technical difficulties.”

The group has about 150 active members, Williams said.

But while the enthusiasm was clear in this politically active pocket, other areas of campus have not seen the same fervor that engulfed colleges when Barack Obama faced off with John McCain in 2008.

Half as many 18- to 29-year-olds are following campaign news closely this year compared with 2008, according to a recent study from the Pew Research Center. During the 2008 election, 72 percent of young voters said they definitely planned to vote, compared with 63 percent this year.

“There was a different dynamic in 2008 — the first African-American president, two polar opposite candidates,” said Whit Kelly, a second-year law student at the University of Alabama. Kelly was an undergraduate at the Capstone in 2008. “Four years ago, Obama was fresh. He was a new face to the political scene.”

Kelly, however, said he believes many in his generation expected big changes in Washington culture but did not see them.

“He had a pretty strong appeal to younger voters,” he said. “Some of those people who may have been gung-ho four years ago may not be as excited for this election.”

There has been interest in the election, but the campus has not been awash in campaign posters and T-shirts as it was in 2008.

“I think there was a lot more of that in 2008,” said Ethan Hiatt, also a second-year law student and 2011 graduate of UA. “I just remember everybody wearing McCain shirts; I mean, I had them myself.

“There were always people out in front of the Rec (center),” he said. “I don’t think I’ve seen as much of that this year.”

Like Kelly, Hiatt thinks the choice in 2008 was starker than in this election cycle. This year, the choice is between two more established politicians in an incumbent president and former governor.

And the lack of enthusiasm could hurt the president’s bid for a second term.

An Associated Press-GfK poll conducted in September found that 61 percent of registered voters in the 18-to-29 bracket support the president, compared with 30 percent for Romney. Hiatt, Kelly and Williams, however, said UA seems to be leaning to the right.

In 2008, young people ended up voting for Obama by a 2-to-1 margin, with just over half of U.S. citizens ages 18 to 29 casting a ballot. Youth turnout was larger than it had been in recent years, and was particularly notable because the wide margin of support helped lift Obama into office.

It remains to be seen, however, whether younger voters will show up at the polls this time.

A Gallup poll taken Aug. 27-Sept. 16 found that 63 percent of registered voters, ages 18 to 29, said they “definitely” plan to vote. That compares with at least 80 percent of registered voters in older age brackets who said the same.

By comparison, before the election in 2008, 79 percent of young registered voters said they definitely planned to cast a ballot, according to a Time/Abt SRBI poll, taken in later September of that year. Older voters were about as committed to vote then as they are this time. (Among self-reported registered voters, turnout in 2008 was 84 percent for 18- to 29-year-olds, according to the U.S. Census, compared with 91 percent for older voters. Those percentages are higher than the overall vote percentages because they don’t include citizens who never registered to vote.)

It’s important to note, though, that for a new crop of eligible voters — those who weren’t yet 18 in November 2008 — this will be the first time they’re able to cast a ballot.

And that has John Della Volpe, the polling director at Harvard University’s Institute of Politics, wondering if the enthusiasm gap may be, at least partly, the result of a “growing schism” between older and younger millennials, the age group so named because they’ve reached adulthood in the new millennium.

Older millennials came of age amid the terror attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, and Hurricane Katrina, sparking some to become more civically and politically engaged. Meanwhile, “the political awakening of the younger millennials is happening during the recession,” Della Volpe says.

How that will affect them or influence this election remains to be seen.

But already, Della Volpe and his staff have found that Obama holds a wider margin of support among older twentysomethings than with potential voters who are 18 to 24, especially 18- and 19-year-olds.

Whether Republicans know that, or whether they simply noted young voters’ influence on the last election, they have been spending more time courting college students lately.

Republican Paul Ryan, being framed as the “younger” vice presidential candidate, has spent time on campuses recently. George P. Bush, son of former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, also has been making the rounds at colleges and universities in his state, to try to generate interest in Republicans.

That is “a very, very astute move” by Republicans, Della Volpe says.

They won’t win the youth vote, he predicts. “But they might win the white 18- to 24-year-old vote, and they could block some additional gains that Obama might make.”

It means a lot depends on these next few weeks, especially since studies have shown that young voters are often late to engage in an election, even in a presidential year.

“Young voters tend to make up their minds about whether they will vote — and for whom — much later than older voters,” says Brian Harward, a political scientist who heads the Center for Political Participation at Allegheny College in Pennsylvania.

So voter registration drives are continuing in earnest, as are education campaigns to try to allay the confusion over which IDs students can use when voting. In states such as Pennsylvania, where a voter ID law remains in limbo, colleges and universities are issuing expiration stickers for student IDs, so they can be used at the polls.

In the absence of as many student-driven campaign activities, schools such as Elmhurst College in Illinois also have created a calendar of fall political events — debate viewing parties and forums for congressional candidates, among them.

“I am still taken aback that students haven’t really thought about the election that much,” says Ian Crone, Elmhurst’s associate dean of students.

<p>TUSCALOOSA | On Tuesday, about 20 members of the College Republicans packed a side room of Wilhagan's in downtown Tuscaloosa to plan their contribution to the Mitt Romney-Paul Ryan presidential ticket.</p><p>Like other activists in the state, the group has been working the phones to contact voters in swing states like Florida and Virginia. </p><p>“Last week, we had 30 people coming out willing to make phone calls,” said Regan Williams, a junior from Vestavia Hills and chairman of the UA College Republicans. “I feel like we could have gotten a lot more had we not had some technical difficulties.”</p><p>The group has about 150 active members, Williams said.</p><p>But while the enthusiasm was clear in this politically active pocket, other areas of campus have not seen the same fervor that engulfed colleges when Barack Obama faced off with John McCain in 2008.</p><p>Half as many 18- to 29-year-olds are following campaign news closely this year compared with 2008, according to a recent study from the Pew Research Center. During the 2008 election, 72 percent of young voters said they definitely planned to vote, compared with 63 percent this year. </p><p>“There was a different dynamic in 2008 — the first African-American president, two polar opposite candidates,” said Whit Kelly, a second-year law student at the University of Alabama. Kelly was an undergraduate at the Capstone in 2008. “Four years ago, Obama was fresh. He was a new face to the political scene.”</p><p>Kelly, however, said he believes many in his generation expected big changes in Washington culture but did not see them.</p><p>“He had a pretty strong appeal to younger voters,” he said. “Some of those people who may have been gung-ho four years ago may not be as excited for this election.”</p><p>There has been interest in the election, but the campus has not been awash in campaign posters and T-shirts as it was in 2008.</p><p>“I think there was a lot more of that in 2008,” said Ethan Hiatt, also a second-year law student and 2011 graduate of UA. “I just remember everybody wearing McCain shirts; I mean, I had them myself. </p><p>“There were always people out in front of the Rec (center),” he said. “I don't think I've seen as much of that this year.”</p><p>Like Kelly, Hiatt thinks the choice in 2008 was starker than in this election cycle. This year, the choice is between two more established politicians in an incumbent president and former governor.</p><p>And the lack of enthusiasm could hurt the president's bid for a second term.</p><p>An Associated Press-GfK poll conducted in September found that 61 percent of registered voters in the 18-to-29 bracket support the president, compared with 30 percent for Romney. Hiatt, Kelly and Williams, however, said UA seems to be leaning to the right.</p><p>In 2008, young people ended up voting for Obama by a 2-to-1 margin, with just over half of U.S. citizens ages 18 to 29 casting a ballot. Youth turnout was larger than it had been in recent years, and was particularly notable because the wide margin of support helped lift Obama into office.</p><p>It remains to be seen, however, whether younger voters will show up at the polls this time.</p><p>A Gallup poll taken Aug. 27-Sept. 16 found that 63 percent of registered voters, ages 18 to 29, said they “definitely” plan to vote. That compares with at least 80 percent of registered voters in older age brackets who said the same.</p><p>By comparison, before the election in 2008, 79 percent of young registered voters said they definitely planned to cast a ballot, according to a Time/Abt SRBI poll, taken in later September of that year. Older voters were about as committed to vote then as they are this time. (Among self-reported registered voters, turnout in 2008 was 84 percent for 18- to 29-year-olds, according to the U.S. Census, compared with 91 percent for older voters. Those percentages are higher than the overall vote percentages because they don't include citizens who never registered to vote.)</p><p>It's important to note, though, that for a new crop of eligible voters — those who weren't yet 18 in November 2008 — this will be the first time they're able to cast a ballot.</p><p>And that has John Della Volpe, the polling director at Harvard University's Institute of Politics, wondering if the enthusiasm gap may be, at least partly, the result of a “growing schism” between older and younger millennials, the age group so named because they've reached adulthood in the new millennium.</p><p>Older millennials came of age amid the terror attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, and Hurricane Katrina, sparking some to become more civically and politically engaged. Meanwhile, “the political awakening of the younger millennials is happening during the recession,” Della Volpe says.</p><p>How that will affect them or influence this election remains to be seen.</p><p>But already, Della Volpe and his staff have found that Obama holds a wider margin of support among older twentysomethings than with potential voters who are 18 to 24, especially 18- and 19-year-olds.</p><p>Whether Republicans know that, or whether they simply noted young voters' influence on the last election, they have been spending more time courting college students lately.</p><p>Republican Paul Ryan, being framed as the “younger” vice presidential candidate, has spent time on campuses recently. George P. Bush, son of former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, also has been making the rounds at colleges and universities in his state, to try to generate interest in Republicans.</p><p>That is “a very, very astute move” by Republicans, Della Volpe says.</p><p>They won't win the youth vote, he predicts. “But they might win the white 18- to 24-year-old vote, and they could block some additional gains that Obama might make.”</p><p>It means a lot depends on these next few weeks, especially since studies have shown that young voters are often late to engage in an election, even in a presidential year.</p><p>“Young voters tend to make up their minds about whether they will vote — and for whom — much later than older voters,” says Brian Harward, a political scientist who heads the Center for Political Participation at Allegheny College in Pennsylvania.</p><p>So voter registration drives are continuing in earnest, as are education campaigns to try to allay the confusion over which IDs students can use when voting. In states such as Pennsylvania, where a voter ID law remains in limbo, colleges and universities are issuing expiration stickers for student IDs, so they can be used at the polls.</p><p>In the absence of as many student-driven campaign activities, schools such as Elmhurst College in Illinois also have created a calendar of fall political events — debate viewing parties and forums for congressional candidates, among them.</p><p>“I am still taken aback that students haven't really thought about the election that much,” says Ian Crone, Elmhurst's associate dean of students.</p><p>He said he only hopes that, before Nov. 6, more of them will do so.</p><p>Material from The Associated Press was used in this report.</p>