Dems see Texas as heading their way

Population trends may turn state ‘blue’

Published 10:15 pm, Sunday, November 11, 2012

Janie Aguilar shows her support for President Obama Election Day Tuesday November 6, 2012 on McCullough avenue in front of Ridgeview Elementary School. The polls close at 7:00 p.m. .

Janie Aguilar shows her support for President Obama Election Day Tuesday November 6, 2012 on McCullough avenue in front of Ridgeview Elementary School. The polls close at 7:00 p.m. .

Photo: JOHN DAVENPORT, San Antonio Express-News

Dems see Texas as heading their way

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WASHINGTON — President Barack Obama’s victory — fueled by massive turnout among Latinos and African Americans — gave outnumbered Texas Democrats new hope that the nation’s demographic tidal wave will eventually hit the state.

San Antonio Mayor Julián Castro predicted Thursday on CNN that the reliably “red” Republican Lone Star State is well on its way to “purple” swing-state status.

“Within the next six to eight years,” he said, “I believe that Texas will at least be a purple state, if not a blue state.”

The state’s rising Democratic superstar isn’t the only politician to speculate on the future effect of the burgeoning Mexican American, African American and Asian American population in Texas, which accounted for 88 percent of the state’s 4.3 million population increase from 2000 to 2010.

“It’s a math question,” former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush told New York magazine this summer. “Four years from now, Texas is going to be a so-called blue state. Imagine Texas as a blue state, how hard it would be (for Republicans) to carry the presidency.”

Everybody has a guess as to when Texas, which has not elected a Democratic statewide official in the 21st century, will again become politically competitive. If ever.

So what’s the answer?

A mathematical analysis of demographic trends and voting results by the San Antonio Express-News and the Houston Chronicle indicates that Texas Democrats will reach parity with Republicans at the presidential election level by 2024 if the current trends continue.

But there are many variables. The pace of Democratic progress — or Republican resurgence — could change based on shifts in Latino turnout levels, growth in some of Texas’ heavily Republican suburbs and, most importantly, whether the GOP can win over more Hispanic voters.

The forces at work become evident through a county-by-county analysis of Texas voting behavior. Just 32 of the state’s 254 counties have become more Democratic over the past three presidential elections, but those Democratic “vanguard” counties have shifted 618,558 votes into the Democratic column since 2000.

Democratic gains have been most pronounced in the state’s largest metropolitan areas, along the Mexican border and in sparsely populated areas of West Texas. Twenty-three of the 32 counties with improved Democratic performance are in South or West Texas, while an additional seven are clustered around Dallas, Houston and Austin.

The analysis found that the Democratic gains are closely tied to minority population increases. Bell County, with its increasingly diverse military population, saw a 51 percent increase in minority residents since 2000 and an 8-percentage-point increase in voting performance by Democrats. Brazos County had a 55 percent increase in minority population, primarily Latino, and a 5 percent improvement in Democratic performance.

Fort Bend County had explosive 97 percent growth in minority population. Its Democratic vote is up 8 percent since 2000.

Among the surprising areas of Democratic improvement are Republican counties that have seen a rapid rise in minority population. Among them: Hays and Williamson counties outside Austin, and Tarrant County, dominated by Fort Worth. In Tarrant County, a minority population surge of 313,494 overcame growth in GOP-dominated suburbs and helped Democrats slice 5 points off the GOP vote over 12 years.

In raw votes, 70 percent of the Democratic gains are accounted for by just four urban counties: Dallas, Harris, Travis and Bexar. Those counties gained minority population of 1,575,723 from 2000 to 2010.

If current trends continue, Democrats would whittle about 5 1/2 percentage points off Mitt Romney’s 15.8-point margin in every subsequent presidential cycle. That would make Texas a competitive state by 2020 and a toss-up state four years later.

The analysis assumes similar rates of voter registration and turnout by each minority group, a spike in Mexican American voter participation because of today’s large number of school-aged Latinos, similar voter preference levels among all voting blocs and similar rates of growth in Republican-leaning suburbs.

The trend could be accelerated — or reversed — by the following factors: If Latinos become more involved in the electoral system. Historically, Mexican American citizens register and vote at rates lower than Anglo Texans. If young Latinos participate at the same level as others, Texas could become a toss-up four years earlier.

If Latinos become even more Democratic. If Republicans further alienate Hispanic voters, Texas could be competitive in four years, a toss-up within eight.

If Latinos trend toward Republicans. A GOP goal would be to reach the 40 percent once won by George W. Bush. If that happens, Democrats would not reach break-even until 2036.

If Anglos trend toward Democrats. Rural white Texans cast more than 90 percent of their votes for Romney. If their offspring cast just 25 percent of their votes for Democrats, or if high-tech jobs bring more moderate white voters, Texas could be purple sooner.

If Republican suburbs grow faster than the minority population. Minority population growth has largely offset GOP gains in suburban strongholds such as Collin, Denton and Brazoria counties. But if the economy rebounds and residential construction again explodes, Republicans could pad their margin.

The best chance for Democrats to win statewide is to find a candidate with crossover appeal to Anglos or an ability to win even more of the Mexican American vote. Democrats speculate that candidates such as Julián Castro or Planned Parenthood CEO Cecile Richards, daughter of former Texas Gov. Ann Richards, could speed the two-party transition.

Likewise, Republicans could find a candidate with potent appeal to Texas Latinos. Possibilities include Jeb Bush or New Mexico Gov. Susana Martinez in the 2016 presidential race. Bush’s son George P. Bush, who filed paperwork Thursday to seek state office in Texas in 2014, is seen as the leader of the new generation of Texas Latino conservatives.

Democrats believe it’s just a matter of time.

“Texas Republicans may think of themselves as the last holdout for the tea party extremists, but Texas is becoming more diverse every day,” said Democratic consultant Paul Begala. “In time, it will look more like a Barack Obama state than a Rick Perry state.”

richard.dunham@chron.com

Summer Ballentine and Max Kranl of the Hearst Washington Bureau contributed to this report.