The 2010 Emmys: Handicapping Lead Actress in a Drama

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In the days leading up to Sunday night's Emmy awards, PopcornBiz will be sizing up the nominees in the 10 biggest categories. This is not a drill, this is an actual guess at who will win Best Actress in a Drama.

January Jones, "Mad Men"
Co-star Elisabeth Moss had her candidacy downgraded to Supporting Actress to make way for Jones, who will have to be satisfied with her nomination. Odds of winning: 10 to 1

Connie Britton, "Friday Night Lights"
It's sad that it's taken so long for Britton to be recognized for her turn as Tami Taylor, the soul of a show that at its peak was as good as any on TV. Making nmatters worse, she won't get another chance at this award, what with "FNL" getting the axe. Odds of winning: 7 to 1

Mariska Hargitay, "Law & Order: Special Victims Unit"
This is her seventh nomination in a row, her lone win coming in 2006. She's come a long way as an actress since the show launched in 1999, but it's unlikely she'll make it back to the winner's circle. Odds of winning: 6 to 1

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(Published Friday, Aug. 27, 2010)

Kyra Sedgwick, "The Closer"
This is her fifth consecutive nomination for her outstanding work as Brenda Leigh Johnson, yet she has somehow not win. As good as she is, the competition will be to tough once again. Odds of winning: 4 to 1

Julianna Margulies, "The Good Wife"
It's rare for an actor or actress to walk away from a great role and return a decacde later to an arguably better role. She won Best Supporting Actress in 1995 for her work on "ER," and now has a puncher's chance of taking the big prize. Odds of winning: 2 to 1

Glenn Close, "Damages"
Close is a poised for a three-repeat in this race, her work as win-at-all-costs litigator Patty Hewes elevating "Damages" from a soap opera to high art. Odds of winning: 3 to 2