Murray has big lead in new KING-5 poll

Challenger State Sen. Ed Murray enjoys a 52-32 percent lead over incumbent Seattle Mayor Mike McGinn in a new StrategiesUSA/KING-5 News poll, conducted after the first televised McGinn-Murray debate last week.

State Sen. Ed Murray. He has comfortable lead in poll of Seattle Mayor’s race, but can’t get too comfortable.

The poll is little changed from an earlier survey that put Murray ahead by 18 points. The McGinn camp has claimed its internal polling shows a much tighter race.

No fewer than three Seattle Times scribes were quick to tweet — Fairview Fannie has campaigned against McGinn — and Murray consultant Sandeep Kaushik was ready with spin: “It is an indication that Ed, at a minimum, held his own against Mike McGinn, who is a former trial litigator and an expert debater.”

The latest survey is likely to be felt three ways:

–The poll was of likely voters, making it more imperative that McGinn turn out his political base of less likely voters in Southeast Seattle. The mayor was having a news conference on Monday morning to announce support from leaders of Seattle’s East African community. McGinn campaign morale has remained high despite negative polls, of which he saw a few in 2009.

–The Murray campaign has to guard — big time — against “We’ve got it in the bag” sentiments that would make his voters less likely to mail in their ballots. Kaushik was careful to load up his statement with caveats, saying he would “not be surprised” if the gap narrows, and that the campaign has “a lot of work” ahead.

–The remaining high-profile joint appearances become imperative for McGinn. These include a forum on gun violence on Tuesday at Mount Zion Baptist Church, a Wednesday joint luncheon appearance at the Seattle Rotary Club and a KCTS-TV debate on Oct. 22. Enrique Cerna of KCTS is far more a let-’em-play referee than moderators at the KING and KOMO-TV debates.