Brodsky: In politics, humility matters

RICHARD BRODSKY

Published 11:05 pm, Sunday, November 4, 2012

Cynicism about government and public officials is both way overstated and unfair. Politicians are generally decent human beings with genuine concern for the human costs of hurricanes, floods and the like. That being said, every chief executive loves a disaster. Lots of TV time, it's not difficult to look concerned and competent, and the commander-in-chief role lifts him or her above the mundane world of politics and governance.

Hurricane Sandy has given us plentiful examples. Mayor Bloomberg wins the Oscar: He is calm, decisive and authoritative in the Giuliani mold. Our own Governor Cuomo shows up as more emotionally sensitive than the mayor, a little too talkative, but in command of the mechanics of disaster relief. Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey stunned the political world by effusively praising President Obama, and Gov. Dannel P. Malloy of Connecticut showed the patience and intelligence that have marked his tenure. For all of them, Sandy was a major political plus.

For Barack Obama, Sandy was manna from heaven, politically. Mitt Romney effectively disappeared, the conversation turned from the economics of the past to the value of government, his personal empathy, competence and decisiveness were on display, and the Christie praise stamped him as above partisan politics.

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The Romney/Ryan plan to turn FEMA into 50 state-run programs elevated anti-government rhetoric over sensible federal programs. Romney actually called borrowing for federal disaster aid "immoral" back during the Republican primaries. In a race this nail-bitingly close, this could make the difference. Sandy was an October surprise to be sure, but a surprising surprise not made by politicians. That does illuminate how profoundly Bush the Younger botched Katrina, and how lasting was the political impact. It wasn't just the horrific images and genuine suffering that America saw, it was the offhand, glad-hand response by Bush and the ill-fated "Brownie" — remember that?

These initial successes in image-managing will be subject to the harsh realities of recovery. Once the politicians took public ownership of the disaster, they took public ownership of the solutions, even those well beyond their actual control. For all the image-burnishing, these guys need to make sure that their governments work, and they need a good deal of luck.

The impacts on the election may be both historic and weird. If there's a negative impact on turnout, it will be greater in Obama states like New York, New Jersey, Vermont etc. While it probably won't change the Electoral College results, it may depress Obama's vote total. That would make it much more likely that Obama wins the Electoral College while losing the popular vote.

Don't underestimate the impact of such results. It always affected Bush the Younger's claim to legitimacy that Al Gore outpolled him, and Obama has already been subject to years of attack on his status as a legitimate American and President. If the next four years are to be less strangulated than the last, this would not be not a happy omen.

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Finally, reflect for a moment on Cuomo and 2016. It's not clear if his chances are improved or diminished by an Obama victory. His strategic posture as way right on taxes and government spending and way left on social issues — a "progractionary" politics — has been a strong foundation that has so far yielded very, very good poll numbers. If Sandy reminds everyone that there's a place for strong, active and well-funded government, it may not play well in coming years.

Every time we convince ourselves that we are in control of our condition, we are starkly reminded that we are not. Sandy wasn't just a human tragedy, it was an existential reminder that humility still matters.