POLITICO Brussels Playbook, presented by Google: The battle for Britain — The new Trump

Playbook is writing to you from the center of the former British empire at the West India Quays in London, in an apartment owned by a New Zealander, in a building built by French prisoners of war, on a street bombed by the German Luftwaffe, sitting on a balcony looking out onto the towers of the financial capital of the world, a floating church, and the irresistibly-named barge ‘Knocker White.’

Amongst all that history and tension, Britons vote today on whether their post-war history has been worth it. Anyone who tells you they know what will happen is lying.

Voting runs from 7 a.m. to 10 p.m. UK time.

THE PERSONAL, NATIONAL AND GLOBAL STAKES COULD NOT BE HIGHER.

For David Cameron, even good news will be cold comfort tonight. The best the British prime minister will be able to say, even if he wins, is that (for the second time in two years) he narrowly avoided tearing the U.K. apart. Cameron was prepared to resign if he lost the 2014 Scottish referendum, but insists he’ll stay on whatever the result today. That may not be his choice to make. If it comes to leadership change, a caretaker prime minister may be installed before a permanent replacement is settled on.

For the UK, some wounds may be bandaged, but others are bound to open up, no matter the result. That diverse list of potential casualties ranges from fragile peace in Northern Ireland, to renewed calls for Scottish independence, and lingering resentment at the power of Brussels bureaucrats. The fact that absolutely nothing will change regarding EU laws and rules on Friday may further inflame Leave voters, especially if they win. They will face a multi-year negotiation, which even at its end, would likely leave much of the status quo in place.

For Europe, a Brexit vote will be a trigger populists in other countries to demand their own national referendums. A vote to Remain will push those same nationalists to demand U.K.-style reform deals, and force the EU institutions to confront an existential question: are they capable of consensus about major reforms? Populists and their supporters globally, notably in the U.S. presidential election, will be encouraged by a vote for Brexit.

‘DON’T MENTION THE WAR:’ An eery quiet pervaded much of life in London as the clock ticked down to the opening of the referendum polls. As war was waged in print and TV and social media, many of the people Playbook spoke with were sick of family events cleaved apart, dates shipwrecked, and old friendships put into question by the divisions over today’s vote. “Things go so off track you can’t actually have a conversation about it,” complained Playbook’s dinner mate.

The waitress who served coffee Wednesday morning, in true British style, found the whole campaign awkward. “It’s like talking about how terrible your boyfriend is while he’s standing next to you. I’m like ‘Shhh! Europe can hear you!’”

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REFERENDUM ROAD TRIP: London is widely presumed to be the heart of EU support in the U.K. But there are more than one Londons. “I have come to Havering — 113 square kilometers, home to over a quarter of a million people, and, according to pollsters YouGov, the most Euroskeptic place in Britain. I want to hear what this other London thinks.” Ben Judah … http://politi.co/28W5qGx

FEEL-GOOD FACTOR: All four U.K. nations are through to the final 16 of the Euro16 soccer championships.

WEATHER WET BLANKET: There’s a 90 percent chance of rain as the polls open at 7 a.m. in London, and it will be wet, cloudy, chilly, or a combination of those, through most of the country through most of the day, according to forecasts.

FINAL POLLS: It’s still a statistical dead heat, with around 10 percent of voters undecided, and a lean towards Remain in the final polls.

FINAL PITCHES: Leave campaigner Steve Hilton sounded very downbeat on Sky News last night, lamenting the tone of the campaign, while European Commissioner Jonathan Hill found new passion in his final push. The Sun probably went the furthest of all, telling the EU: ‘Stick it up your Juncker.’

**DOWNLOAD POLITICO’S EU REFERENDUM TRACKER: With only hours until polls close in the U.K., stay up to date with our EU Referendum Tracker, our new mobile product available for iPhone users via Apple Wallet. Get on-the-go access to real-time data and analysis from POLITICO’s team of journalists in Brussels, London, Berlin and Paris. Download the pass, available for readers using iPhones, here: politi.co/tracker**

Three models: Charles Grant says Britain will have to choose one of three options the rest of Europe offers. http://bit.ly/28PLzgz

THURSDAY NIGHT — WHAT TO LOOK FOR IN THE VOTING COUNT:

— There will be no formal exit poll (though various companies will poll by usual methods during the day), so don’t expect a clear view when polls close.—Votes will be tallied by 382 local authorities (which range in number from 700,000 registered voters in Birmingham to as few as 1,600 in the Isles of Scilly). Local results will begin arriving from 1 a.m. U.K. time.— The biggest set of results is expected around 3 a.m., and a strong indication of the final result by 4:30 a.m. Electoral Commission Chair Jenny Watson will declare the final result in Manchester.

Think tank Open Europe suggests paying particular attention to:

— Labour strongholds in Northern England, the Midlands and South Wales, which are expected to fragment away from Labour’s advice to vote Remain.— The results in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland: Without 55 percent or more from the U.K.’s smaller nations, it will be hard for Remain to win.— Traditional swing constituencies like Swindon and Nuneaton.— Remain needs to run up big margins in English cities, and Leave needs to crush it in the East of England. For example, says Open Europe, “if Leave perform strongly in London or Remain in Essex — it would suggest they are in trouble nationally.” Map of strongholds: http://bit.ly/28O4tkp

Details on how the night will unfold, and how to tell if a Brexit is really happening: Tom McTague http://politi.co/28QUf5i

FORWARD TO FRIDAY …

WHAT HAPPENS THE MORNING AFTER: “You’re never the same after a near death experience … Whether the U.K. stays or not after Thursday’s vote, there’s seemingly no business as usual to return to for Britain, the EU or even the Western world … The vote in Britain … has coincided with and deepened a crisis of an order built after World War II and reinforced and expanded with the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989. Thursday’s referendum, regardless of its outcome, may turn out to be merely a starter to a larger course of troubles.” Matthew Kaminski http://politi.co/28OyiQh.

HOW EUROPE WOULD GREET A BREXIT: The failure of the British political establishment to spread and sell the benefits of a global liberal vision for governing will worry many. In terms of their likely actions it boils down to ‘sorry’ and ‘good riddance,’ writes Florian Eder. The European Commission insists it has no ‘plan B,’ but officials and government leaders know almost exactly who they’ll call and meet in the hours and days after a vote for Brexit. http://politi.co/28OuVNd

BRUSSELS SET TO GET BACK TO BUSINESS AFTER BREXIT: “The EU may have slowed down its legislative and regulatory work in the run-up to the Brexit vote to avoid stirring up opposition to Brussels in the referendum campaign, but it’s about to be back in business,” writes Quentin Ariès. “Whatever the outcome of the U.K. referendum, several contentious issues that have been on hold will start to shake loose from the EU machine. Key among them is the EU’s budget, which has been a hot-button issue in Britain during the Brexit debate … Originally expected in May, it was postponed until after the U.K vote.” For Pros: http://politi.co/28TbYIo

KEEP WATCH FOR …

— An emergency session of the European Parliament and College of European Commissioners.

— Belgium has called for an emergency pre-summit meeting of EU leaders, regardless of the results: http://politi.co/28OQ8nJ

— A challenge to David Cameron’s Conservative Party leadership.

PLAYBOOK VOTES: 70 percent of readers who voted in a Twitter poll on the branding of landmarks with Remain messages, think the stunt will help rather than hinder the Remain campaign. http://bit.ly/28Lgl4n

G7 to issue statement saying it will take all necessary steps to calm markets in case of Brexit: http://reut.rs/28R7aEt

ITALY — 5 STAR MOVEMENT WANTS OWN REFERENDUM: “Fresh from its victory over the weekend in the Rome mayoral race, Italy’s antiestablishment 5 Star Movement has called for a national referendum on whether the country should do leave the euro,” the Wall Street Journal reports. http://on.wsj.com/28OUbTJ

MIGRATION — EU BORDER GUARD ONE STEP CLOSER TO OPERATIONS: Jacopo Barigazzi reports on a ministerial agreement http://politi.co/28XhMPB, but it’s a watered-down plan whereby “The EU’s new border guard will be unable to enter a country without the consent of that country’s government.” http://on.ft.com/28QwB98

TERRORISM —GERMANY TO LOOSEN SURVEILLANCE RULES: Germany is planning to loosen rules that prevent intelligence agencies from tracking and collecting data on teens below the age of 16, Reuters reports. An amendment to an anti-terror law due to be voted on by parliament on Friday will reduce the minimum age to 14. The change comes after a 15-year-old girl stabbed an officer in the neck in the Hanover train station in February. http://reut.rs/28YPDaV

ETHICS — ROMANIAN LAWMAKERS VOTE THEMSELVES A FREE PASS: The Romanian parliament voted Wednesday (306 to 0) to allow MPs who hired their relatives in their offices before August 21, 2013, to be exempt from conflict of interest rules. Outrage ensued in some Romanian media. http://bit.ly/28SwxEJ

US 2016 …

TRUMP SHIFTS INTO DISCIPLINED ATTACK MODE: On-script and as subtle as ever, Trump attacked Clinton as a mix of corrupt, incompetent and deceptive, declaring her a “world-class liar.”Eli Stokols analyzes the new Trump, and Nick Gass looks at the accusations about Clinton.

EURO 2016 — ALL HAIL THE UNDERDOGS: “Plucky wee Wales topped its group, thumbing a dragon’s nose at England; and Iceland — which would only be the fourth-most populated borough were it a part of London — romped through to the second round … Ireland cavorted into the next round, too, with a late, late goal against a lackluster Italy.” The Linesman: http://politi.co/28SYI6y.

And you don’t need to speak Icelandic to bask in this commentator’s call of the 94th-minute winning goal: http://bit.ly/28SYGve

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