AAPL: Bulls Dismiss iPhone Worries; Pondering Downside to $400

By Tiernan Ray

Shares of Apple (AAPL) today closed down $15.83, or 3.2%, at $485.92, as the Street responded to yesterday’s concerns about rumored cuts in iPhone production with a raft of mostly positive endorsements of the stock.

I’d note there is still quite a range of estimates for both last quarter and this quarter in terms of iPhone sales:

William Power, R.W. Baird: Reiterates an Outperform rating and a $750 price target, writing that as regards a projected 20% drop in iPhone sales, quarter to quarter, this quarter, is “the front-end loaded nature of new market launches is the bigger issue than slowing demand.” What he means is that the iPhone 5 showed up in countries faster this time around than with the 4S: “We would note that Apple launched the iPhone 5 in close to 100 markets this CQ4, vs. the iPhone 4S in 50+ a year ago. The 5% sequential iPhone shipment decline from CQ4 to CQ1 a year ago might have been closer to 30% if launch timelines were similar to this year. China alone was a significant driver in CQ1 last year, and will benefit CQ4 this year.” He’s modeling 48.5 million units last quarter, up from his prior 46.7 million-unit-estimate, and cut his March-quarter estimate to 39.5 million from 43.5 million.

Shaw Wu, Sterne Agee: Reiterates a Buy rating and an $840 price target. The company’s December-quarter results were likely in line with the Street, he thinks, at $54.4 billion in revenue and $13.70 per share in profit, based on sales of 47.5 million iPhone units. The demand for the iPhone “remains robust,” he argues, and “We believe there is great confusion with press reports of order cuts and weak demand.” In fact, writes Wu, the reports merely point to improved manufacturing yields and Apple shifting suppliers. Wu thinks that improved yield could help gross profit surprise to the upside last quarter: “We are modeling gross margin of 38.7% vs. expectations of 38.3% and guidance of 36%.” Wu sees Apple giving a stock forecast for this quarter, and he’s modeling $44.4 billion in revenue and $10.99 in EPS, on sales of 38 million iPhone units. “We have to admit that this upcoming AAPL earnings call has got to be the trickiest as far as we can remember because near-term stock direction will most likely be entirely driven by investor sentiment.”

Hendi Susanto, Gabelli & Co.: Reiterates a Buy rating on the stock and a $950 present value, projecting revenue last quarter of $54.1 billion and EPS of $12.32 per share, on sales of 43.7 million iPhones and 26 million iPads, including 6 million of the iPad mini, while noting that the iPhone count is consistent with “higher supply chain capacity and wider distribution channels.” Susanto is projecting sales of 38.2 million iPhone units this quarter, but does not provide full financial estimates for the quarter. As far as valuation, “AAPL shares are trading at 5.5x and 11.4x our FY 2013 EBITDA and EPS estimates of $65 billion and $48.00, respectively. We calculate a FY2013 PMV of $950 per share based on our 14x forward P/E plus cash.”

Peter Misek, Jefferies & Co.: Reiterates a Buy rating on the stock and an $800 price target. Misek is modeling 53 million iPhones sold last quarter, and revenue of $59.6 billion and EPS of $15.50. He thinks this quarter’s outlook from the company may end up being “slightly above consensus” despite Apple’s legendary conservatism in forecasting. That might mean an implicit forecast for 40 million or more iPhones this quarter. Misek actually cut his March-quarter estimate from 48 million units to 44 million units, in part because rumors about another iPhone refresh this year could stall some sales. But he thinks the discussion of production cuts missed the mark: “As word of the earlier production schedule starts to spread, we believe we could see a slight slowing of demand CQ1 in anticipation of the new product launch and Apple will likely start curtailing channel inventory. Therefore we tweak down our CQ1 iPhone shipment estimate from 48M to 44M, which is still well above widespread fears of shipments in the mid-30Ms. These fears are based on large CQ1 component order declines, but we believe the primary drivers are: 1) an assembly bottleneck caused component inventories to rise in CQ4; 2) new iPhone builds starting in March; 3) demand being in line to slightly below optimistic expectations. Our checks indicate that CQ1 iPhone builds are ~50M.”

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There are 80 comments

JANUARY 15, 2013 2:26 P.M.

Joe wrote:

Excellent article. Juat facts with the decision left to the reader. I wish all articles were like yours. Thanks

JANUARY 15, 2013 2:32 P.M.

Joe wrote:

Never seen a company get slaughtered
by the media like Apple. Never seen a
company with leadership that absolutely
sux like Apple. Never seen such a pathetic
useless Board and Relationship
team like Apple. Never seen a CEO that
is and has acted like a Complete A hole
Pussy like Tim Cook and never saw a
company that hung their shareholders out
to dry like Apple. Sold everything today for
a tremendous loss and will reinvest into
FB, GOOG, and AMZN. Will never trust
or incest in Apple again. I only hope that
Cook and his entire Staff are fired this
month.

JANUARY 15, 2013 2:39 P.M.

Anonymous wrote:

Joe you sold before earnings. You must be a noob. You clearly have no clue about investing. Just do something else with your money.

JANUARY 15, 2013 2:41 P.M.

Cyrus wrote:

Thanks for selling Apple I just bought more selling on fear is best way to lose money in stocks

JANUARY 15, 2013 2:42 P.M.

goldwatch wrote:

Joe, wow, I feel sorry for you - huge mistake dumping before earning. My 10yr son could trade better than you. Idiots like you should not own AAPL.

JANUARY 15, 2013 2:47 P.M.

joe wrote:

You'd have to be pretty stupid to invest in Apple right now. If you think its bad now just wait until their earnings report comes out and the stock takes a huge nosedive. To many people are holding on to the stock because they love Apple. They're investing with their heart and not their mind and it's going to bite them in the a$$.

JANUARY 15, 2013 2:48 P.M.

Joe wrote:

All you so called experts who criticize me
we shall see how stupid I was when the
stock hits 400 post earnings. I know that all
you jokers are short, right??

JANUARY 15, 2013 2:48 P.M.

kmoss wrote:

Joe wrote:
Excellent article. Juat facts with the decision left to the reader. I wish all articles were like yours. Thanks

AND YOU MADE A DECISION TO SELL upon reading this article pushing the max fear? I wonder how did you even have money to invest to begin with, with a brain like that, lol

JANUARY 15, 2013 2:48 P.M.

Sliver wrote:

That's just exactly what they want you to do sell, so the greedy bastards can buy low before earnings. Samsung and google, seriously they move about 5 bucks a year

JANUARY 15, 2013 2:49 P.M.

DeepValueTrader wrote:

Although Apple appears undervalued, its high growth rates are now apparently things of the past, so this is the natural adjustment period that may last few months of even few years from growth to value stocks. Apple stock declining below $400 is always a possibility.

JANUARY 15, 2013 2:50 P.M.

Paulo Lin wrote:

Smart move Joe, when everyone thought it was bottom at $550, I knew it would go below $500 and it's going to continue to drop when earnings come out low. Bottom line, there are better cheaper products available when comparing to an old outdated iOS6 and iphone 5. The only thing holding Apple now is the iPad and that will eventually fade if Apple doesn't come out with something really innovative, which they won't. Also, like in the 80s, Apple which was the biggest and best thing almost went into bankruptcy because of the closed minded business model Apple has had. Just like the "Palm", very cool with the stylus, etc. is GONE! Apple is now in second place in smartphones and falling quickly behind Android. These forcasts are bull and make no sense. I believe Apple will drop close to $400 when earnings are down.

JANUARY 15, 2013 2:53 P.M.

Paulo Lin wrote:

BTW, smart move Joe, unfortunately you sould have sold a long time ago but you will be able to buy back, if you like when it hits 400, LOL

JANUARY 15, 2013 2:56 P.M.

Jonathan wrote:

AAPL bears are out in force today. No worries. AAPL is still the tech king. Joe, you made a decision to sell out of emotion, which is almost always wrong. AAPL is now very oversold. It should start to climb into earnings and get a nice pop. Good luck to all AAPL shareholders. I am rooting for this stock.

JANUARY 15, 2013 2:58 P.M.

Joe wrote:

Do you jerk offs understand that Apple is
run by a Pussy now??? The environment
has changed. Tim Cook is slowly ruining this
company. Everyday he takes another slice
out of it. Apple is done. I repeat. Apple is
done. Earnings could be great and this
stock doesn't get over 500. People it's
going to 400. I sold at 487. See ya

JANUARY 15, 2013 3:00 P.M.

PX259 wrote:

Ok, let me get this straight. You sold at a "tremendous" loss to buy FB on its graph search news. Hmm... good luck to you.

AAPL's mgmt is staying put because there is no need, ER is going to speak for itself next week. Quite a few announcements will show why the true investors will be rewarded with time. If you trade on fear, you are gambling and you may make some profit riding the noise but eventually you will be in pain before you realize. That's why fundamental matters.

No need to blame anyone. AAPL has been changing the world, what have you done other than making a wrong trade at the wrong time? oh yeah, you meant that "us jokers are all Long, not Short"? Tsk tsk

JANUARY 15, 2013 3:00 P.M.

StonehamMel wrote:

Good article. AAPL will reward the investors and slaughter the traders. It's quaint how stupid people think a publicly traded company can - or should - respond to stock-price killing rumors. Schiller didn't "respond" to the Chinese media's question about a cheap iPhone - he just reiterated a version Steve's long-repeated commitment to building amazing products.

JANUARY 15, 2013 3:10 P.M.

Sam Tatau wrote:

Paulo - good luck with your short position. Friday is expiry of a lot of call options and that's why old news has been brought out to manipulate the Px. There will be limited downside and where do you think wall street main force is going to push after Friday expiry once they don't need to pay off? My guess is that it's going to head north for them to make more $$ off the "quick money" folks.

JANUARY 15, 2013 3:10 P.M.

Val wrote:

I’m sitting on a loss as well; however, I’m not selling because I’ve looked at the competitor’s products and they are inferior. It’s as simple as that, Apple continues to make the better product, a device that actually works and still has the ‘cool factor’ to it regardless of what some of you say about Tim Cook’s performance as CEO. Don’t forget that Cook’s been in charge of Apple for quite some time now and no one was saying anything negative about him back then. Don’t judge the CEO based on the stock’s temporary dip. Also, the best apps still exist on the App Store. Last but certainly not least, Apple’s got plenty of cash and talent on hand for further innovation.

JANUARY 15, 2013 3:12 P.M.

Anonymous wrote:

Joe I wonder what news you got that told you it is done? Hmmm I wonder. Seems to me you see a bad day and sold. You couldn't take the heat since you bought your first shares of stock at 650. Well just a suggestion for your future don't ride waves you'll lose more than you win, secondly play long, thirdly done invest off emotion or because you like an item. You have already violated all 3

JANUARY 15, 2013 3:14 P.M.

Jake_in_Seoul wrote:

@Paulo Just curious how you and other Android fans can be so optimistic about the long-term future of Android when:
1) loyalty rates of iphone users are running around 95% in a recent survey, Android users much less (around 73% in one survey). Doesn't that imply a certain unpleasant future for Android in which there are diminishing returns scrambling to finding new smartphone rubes to compensate drop-outs among the current owners?

2) effect of Tizen, linux, and MS phones luring developers away from Android? Not to mention the Android users who chose to make money and start developing for the iOS universe?

3) the threat that someday some brave main stream media outlet (not Barron's apparently) will actually report
on one of the apparently most forbidden topics of the day, namely the defective nature of Samsung S3 galaxy phones, subject as they are to "sudden death"? Currently there is a blog ("Ultimate GS3 sudden death thread") totaling some 347 pages, stretching from mid-November to the present discussing this problem with Samsung phones that has successfully been excluded from the paid-for celebratory hoop-la over the supposed technological superiority of Samsung phone. Are you happy with this situation?

JANUARY 15, 2013 3:14 P.M.

Joe the dummy wrote:

Joe how much did you really lose - I'm guessing not much if you sold after this FUD has been going around. All the shorts are on the bandwagon right now and weak hands will shake out. This may move from a hyper growth to a investment stock but will still see growth albeit not as much. I mean a company this size can't continue at 40-50% growth. You are an idiot son and the way you talk proves my point Joe, you are the weak hands, thanks for selling and go invest in FB w a 50X PE you DA.

JANUARY 15, 2013 3:14 P.M.

Man wrote:

Poor Joe. In all definitions of the word.

JANUARY 15, 2013 3:15 P.M.

Joe wrote:

When all you experts are looking at a 400
stock price in 2 weeks, you can think of me
and say man, wish I did what Joe did. See you
expert longs at 400

JANUARY 15, 2013 3:15 P.M.

AAPLFAN wrote:

COOK IS A WORST CEO ON THE PLANET AND WONT BE AROUND LONG.......HE SHOULD HAVE DEFENDED HIS COMPANY FOR HIS SHAREHOLDERS THAT HAVE GOTTEN SLAUGHTERED!!!...WOULD HAVE TAKEN HIM 3 MINUTES!!!.....HE'S A JOKE...A FOOL!!...AN INCOMPETENT BOOB!!....NO INNOVATION...NO COMMUNICATION.....JUST TAKE HIS BILLIOBS AND SCREW ALL HIS FAITHFUL SHAREHOLDERS!! THE SOONER THEY FIRE HIM , THE BETTER OFF AAPL WILL BE!

JANUARY 15, 2013 3:20 P.M.

Anonymous wrote:

Dummies reading some foggy reports with no details and selling on fear rather than looking at the fundamentals seeing the time to buy more.

JANUARY 15, 2013 3:24 P.M.

Anonymous wrote:

For anyone who missed the boat last year around this time, I see this as an exciting time to buy in. Apple won't be dropping much further and it has already proven itself to be seen as worthy of the 650-700 range. For lords sakes, it's already at its 500 day SMA. The only people selling today are the shorts and the idiots.

JANUARY 15, 2013 3:26 P.M.

Joe wrote:

My money is in Facebook, Google and Amazon
all which have 100% better leadership than
Apple and All of them are kicking Apple
every way possible. Amazon will have a stock
price of 500 in 3 months passing Apple. Page,
Bezos or Zuckerbeg can run circles around
Cook and one of them will be the Apple CEO
soon. Ellison or Schmidt are the 2 other
choices. My friends, Apple is being run by
a team that is making millions off their stock
options and quite frankly could give 2 hoots
about shareholders and investors. Stop
the BS long story. This is a garbage stock
heading to the 400 garbage pile.

JANUARY 15, 2013 3:27 P.M.

Pete wrote:

@Joe: how fortunate that a legend of business like yourself has come to comment on how the multi-billion dollar empire known as Apple should be run.

JANUARY 15, 2013 3:28 P.M.

archisc wrote:

the stock moved down because of rumors... unconfirmed info.... ppl who trade on these info should be asking.. if those info correct or not...

we can trade on momentum, news... but we got no news but rumors only... has any analysts try to guess samsung, LG, Ford, HP, suppliers orders?? Never...Apple is treated differently for sure. Everyone wants to be the first one to guess apple will fall apart...

Let apple show us what it is..

JANUARY 15, 2013 3:42 P.M.

Danielle wrote:

Apple will post its biggest earnings ever next Wednesday and time to buy more shares at these ridiculously undervalued prices. The iPhone and iPad are the best products of their kind out there,with the best apps.

JANUARY 15, 2013 3:45 P.M.

Joe wrote:

Wake up long losers! Apple is done. Do not
give these a holes anymore of your money. Sell
and buy back at 400. It will happen in 2 weeks.
Also, don't forget the Samsung lawsuit which
will be overturned this week in Samsung's
favor.

JANUARY 15, 2013 3:49 P.M.

Anonymous wrote:

How I got here:

Bought at 580 in Summer
Bought at 660 in Summer

Get angry in the Fall.
Get smart on that Anger.

Bought at 600 in Fall
Bought at 520 in December
Bought at 485 today

Right now, I see this fall before earnings as a gift to right my investment. And I wonder, am I a sucker? Or am I just buying on a massive dip. Guess we will find out in the coming weeks. Tell you one thing though. I'm not buying Facebook. Or Amazon. Or Microsoft. Or Google.

JANUARY 15, 2013 3:51 P.M.

MoneyGone wrote:

It's amazing how some of these analysts keep changing their outlook for Apple every few months. Three months ago Apple was headed towards $900. Now it's headed for $400. This is supposedly Apple's best quarter and the share priced should reach $400 by the time earning's call comes. We'll all get to listen to Tim Cook say how this was the best quarter ever for Apple. How nice.

JANUARY 15, 2013 3:52 P.M.

Sue wrote:

Isn't it sad that Tim Cook finally broke
down, against S Job's wishes, implements
a dividend, which is nothing but a complete
waste of money, only to have the hedge
funds stick it to him, by selling Apple
Apple the entire last quarter, to pay a
smaller tax. Isn't that ironic??

JANUARY 15, 2013 3:57 P.M.

Tom wrote:

LOL @ Joe. Think he's winding everyone up as there really can't be anyone as stupid and illiterate as that on this planet who has that kind of money to invest in the stock market.

I'm now at a loss on Apple for the first time, but i'm still holding long. From an accounting perspective, the stock is a steal. That doesn't always translate, but if you look at the numbers Apple are still head and shoulders above the competition. They may not have the best products anymore, and they may not have the leadsership they once have but they do have loyal customers who continue to buy their products regardless of what else comes to the market. When Apple does something big this year, which we all know they will do, expect the stock price to rocket once again. Apple is far from done, and anyone with even half a brain would agree. Will they be the most innovative company in the world over the next few years? Probably not. Do they need to be? Not even close.

JANUARY 15, 2013 3:58 P.M.

Rimm wrote:

Tim Cook and the Apple Board can take
their stock options, dividends, and IPhones
and stick it up their as-es

JANUARY 15, 2013 4:07 P.M.

Steve wrote:

Here is what Apple should do.

1. Initiate a stock split to position Apple to get into the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and beyond that to remove the "irregularities" of how the options market drives the stock price.

2. Tell the markets that management sees Apple as being at worst, an average company that should have at least an average multiple. Back this up by saying the company will borrow $10s of billions against past and future earnings to do stock buybacks to guarantee that the company receives that multiple.

3. End the Steve Jobs position that ignoring Wall Street is the best strategy. By letting the media and Wall Street play these games, Apple is demoralizing long-term stock holders, including employees, and creating the false perception for customers that Apple is losing in the marketplace. This crazy stock-price roller coaster is not to Apple's advantage, regardless of whether Apple retains a maniacal focus on making the best products.

Many years ago Michael Dell suggested that Apple should be liquidated. Even though his statement is held up as an example of corporate folly, there are a variety of forces in the marketplace that still seem to be driving for that end for Apple. The irrationality around how Apple is treated has gone on long enough. Apple is right to seek a little justice, and they have the cash to make the markets see it their way. At the moment Apple is an American success story like few others, and it deserves to be priced accordingly.

JANUARY 15, 2013 4:08 P.M.

ACT wrote:

Joe are you serious. Do you invest or are you a short term trader. Investors look to the long term and take their bumps along the way. Apple may not be a 40-50% growth company in the future, but it will be a force in the marketplace with a list of fabulous products. I bought in at 9.54 after adjusted for splits. I sold a portion about a year ago at 400+. Ready to buy in again in the 400 range. Keep up the fear factor and the long term investor will be picking up shares on the dips.

JANUARY 15, 2013 4:23 P.M.

Ed wrote:

Samsung and Google are focused on
pushing out products and revenue, while
Apple and Cook are filing lawsuits, handing
out wasteful dividends, and visiting China
and getting on their knees begging China
Mobile to sign a contract and begging Foxconn
not to strike anymore, while giving the
workers more money to stop their
striking. Apple has hit all time lows

JANUARY 15, 2013 4:25 P.M.

Miguel wrote:

Joe why did you "incest" in apple in the first place hahaha. Get a clue dipshit.

Poor joe. He must be pissed after he read this article. If apple addressed just one rumor like the ones that have been out lately they would have to address them all. My money is on a real nice quarter... We will see 600 before 400. Do the math joe

JANUARY 15, 2013 4:41 P.M.

Joe wrote:

Just wait until this Friday when Apple preannounces
that they missed earnings. Then you Champs
can all huddle with each other and call your
next play. Apple this, Apple that, Apple this,
Apple that. It's old, boring and non effective.
Steve came out from behind the curtain
with his black turtleneck and a new gadget
in his hand with a confident smile. Now they
have Tim Cook with no curtain, short sleeve
shirt, with a Starbucks coffee in hand, scared
Shi- less. Good luck

JANUARY 15, 2013 4:43 P.M.

Rick wrote:

They would have already done that joe.... It sucks to suck

JANUARY 15, 2013 4:48 P.M.

APPLE BLUE wrote:

APPLE stock is be worth about 350 four quarters from now.

JANUARY 15, 2013 4:49 P.M.

Ed wrote:

Joe should go see a therapist. Better for anger management and to deal with your grief. Kind of interesting though for a former AAPL holder to turn grief into hatred and to sound like an extreme bear market player.

Who are you kidding. Hold on to your short position and enjoy your last bit of breath.

Lots of hysteria and hyperbole here (and outer there in the media in general). Wow. To Joe, Paulo, AAPLFAN, and the other haters, I'd like to know what Apple needs to do to satisfy your overwhelming thirst for something truly NEW, something indisputably mind-blowing. Seriously, what is it going to take?

I'm so tired of reading comments about Apple not "innovating" as if every feature added to a phone or tablet these days is an earth-shattering innovation and not merely a new feature. The word "innovation" is tossed around so casually these days that it has become utterly meaningless.

Most consumers aren't choosing Android because of a superior feature set. They aren't choosing Galaxy phones because they are so technologically superior to iPhones. They are choosing on price. Android activates more devices because there are a lot more cheap Android options. Let's think about this for a moment. Would you rather be the company with a smaller marketshare and greater profits or the one with tons of marketshare and very slim margins. And then you have to support those devices. Hmmm... I'm far less interested in Apple's marketshare than in their slice of the profit pie. And they still enjoy the fattest (by far) slice of the mobile market's pie. When that starts to change, I'll be more worried.

The media, as of late, seems determined to tear Apple down. They talk about Apple's "innovation" problems with nothing to back it up. It's not like they're talking about the superiority of another company's offering. They're just complaining because Apple isn't satisfying their thirst for something new like it has over the past 5-10 years. Make no mistake, a lot of people obsessing over Apple today are relatively newbies to the game. I've been an Apple fan for 30 years, so it's interesting watching all of the Johnny-come-latelies pick them apart without really understanding the true culture of the company and its guiding philosophy.

As for management, I agree that Cook isn't very exciting. But seriously, calling him a pussy? How old are you? 12? Cook is an operational genius. That's his strength. Keep in mind, there have been some profound management changes at Apple recently. Ousting Scott Forstall and giving Jony Ive control of the entire user experience, hardware and interface, was a huge move.

The original iPhone was such a huge leap forward when it was announced and many people have been caught up ever since. They're addicts, always searching for the next high tech high. In reality, however, we're in a period of refinement, of maturation. It doesn't matter what smartphone one chooses. They all pretty much offer the same functionality. Some have bigger screens. Some have better cameras. Some have NFC. These are all distinguishing features, not serious innovations.

The closest thing we've seen to innovation lately in the mobile space is Siri and Windows Phone. I haven't seen a single innovation from the Android camp, just (some very nice) evolutionary features. Siri, on the other hand, is a true jump forward. It doesn't work that well yet, but it's the first step towards how we'll interact with computers in the future. Apple has always taken a minimalist approach to interfaces and how more minimalist can one get than a natural language voice interface? So I call that an innovation. I also call Windows Phone an innovation because Microsoft truly tried to rethink how the user interacts with his or her phone and improve upon the current paradigm established by Apple and copied so nicely by Google, Samsung, etc.

If you're going to bash Apple, at least have some substance to your argument. Otherwise you're just sowing FUD, which is very likely the agenda of many Apple haters. My guess is that many of you haters are hoping to drive the stock down for whatever reason, to buy in low, to short it, who knows. I also hope the media in general starts taking a more balanced approach to covering Apple. Enough hysteria. Let's see some fair reporting. If you believe Apple has an "innovation" problem, by all means, do a story on someone who is actually innovating.

JANUARY 15, 2013 5:03 P.M.

Brooklyn wrote:

I bought apple at $575 and have lost about 10k so far. If apple hits $400 I will definitely buy more. Joe - your a terrible investor...you need to be able to ride the wave.

JANUARY 15, 2013 5:10 P.M.

Mark wrote:

Agree that Tim Cook and Board are Jerk........They should raise Dividend and Buy share back. They should respect shareholder.

Don't agree to sell stock in panic. Buffet only invest when stock is 40-60% cheaper than it value. Which is AAPL in current price.

JANUARY 15, 2013 5:10 P.M.

Susan wrote:

I agree with what Rob has to say. Karma people, karma.. Haters will always be haters. I buy stocks because I believe in the company story and its L/T future. There's plenty of money on the sideline waiting to come in to AAPL as soon as Friday arrives. Then it's all up from there!! 3 more days of pain, hang in there and resist media and the down players.

JANUARY 15, 2013 5:19 P.M.

Patrick wrote:

Well Apple sure is making the waves these days. I bought Apple a long time ago at $40 a share and this dip is not that big of a deal. Apple is strong company, lots of cash, no debt and will prove in the long run to be a helluva investment for those that know what they are doing.

JANUARY 15, 2013 5:40 P.M.

Joe wrote:

How many bottoms do you longs want? 600
550 500. You think you are all experts but
yet the rug keeps getting pulled from under
you! Come on people. How about 450? You
make me laugh. You must be the experts that
all bought Apple at $50.00. Please.

JANUARY 15, 2013 6:00 P.M.

Paulo Lin wrote:

Well it may be a little late, here it is; I’m still scratching my head today wondering why I paid double the price for my Mac Book Pro 2 years ago!?!? Yes, I own Apple products and I am quickly hating Apple more and more because of their closed business model, “keep all share nothing, prohibit flexibility, let’s call that ecosystem so it sounds friendly”. I’ve come to realize that they are the biggest company for a reason, ripping people off with a slightly above average product. The iPhone 5 does not justify the price charged and in fact Apple profit margins are unheard of! $200 more for an iphone with an 32 GB? Last time I looked, memory wasn’t selling for that much. Sorry to break the news but iOS and iPhone 5 is inferior to the Android and the Samsung Galaxy S3. Don’t take it from me, just google “Galaxy S3 beats iPhone 5 for best device of 2012 CNET”. Anyways, back to the stock, the earnings will be lower than expected mainly because of iPhone 5 sales which I’ve been saying since they announced the iPhone 5 last September. I almost fell off my chair laughing when they boasted features such as “Lightning Fast” LTE, sorry to break the news, Galaxy S2 had this technology for over a year before the iPhone 5. Apple may bounce back slightly after earning are announced since it’s now expected however it will quickly drop back down afterwards, YOU’LL ALL SEE!

JANUARY 15, 2013 6:04 P.M.

Jack wrote:

Danielle wrote: "The iPhone and iPad are the best products of their kind out there,with the best apps."

Only a girl would say that. The iPhone is designed for girls hands and the market is rejecting tiny phones with outdated technology. The OS is also severely dumbed down an no longer competitive with modern operating systems. Android has decimated iPhone market share worldwide. The iPad margins have been undercut by a less profitable version and the large iPad is quickly becoming irrelevant with the advent of Windows 8 tablets. Apple products are no longer cutting edge, iOS is 6 years old and stale. The hardware is missing many technological features of the competition. Android app store has already surpassed iOS and Windows 8 app store is eventually going to also.

JANUARY 15, 2013 6:14 P.M.

Gesser wrote:

I own a lot of Apple and I love it. But they have very poorly managed their stock situation in a big way and have left us all a little frustrated. They need to 1)Do a 20for 1 stock split. This will get the stock down to $25 per share. People will then buy the shit out of this stock and the stock price would double in about 1 month and then it would be priced where it should be. Average investers do not look at how many shares that are outstanding. All they see is the stock price. People are stupid that way. They have touble wrapping their heads around $500 per share even though they are buying the same amount of the company. And 2) Apple needs to bump the dividend to 5% which they can easily afford. This will attract all the value investors. Come on Apple get on it. You are killing us!!! Great company. Clueless strategy.

JANUARY 15, 2013 6:27 P.M.

Paulo Lin wrote:

@ Jack

Well said, you actually manage to say that in a lot less words than I could have!

JANUARY 15, 2013 6:47 P.M.

Rob wrote:

Jack, why don't you back up all (or any, for that matter) of your statements. How is the OS "severely dumbed down"? What does that even mean? How is iOS "dumbed down" versus Android? What are the "many technological features" that Apple is missing in hardware? iOS is stale? Explain please. What does that even mean? Yes, it's 6 years old. Is that a bad thing? Shall we bash Windows for being 20 years old? Maybe the Internet itself is old, stale, and horrible because, gasp, it's over 40 years old!

The Internet is littered with comments like yours, but there's almost never anything specific. Just more hot air. You, like so many people, seem to be addicted to newness for its own sake. You can't appreciate something done right. You only want the bleeding edge. Which is fine. But don't kid yourself. You are a very small minority of the consumer market, a statistical blip.

iPad margins have been undercut by a less profitable version? I assume you are referring to the mini? I don't see how it's any less profitable. I doubt Apple cares one way or the other if you buy a mini or a full sized iPad, so long as you buy an iPad. Of course, you lose all credibility with "the large iPad is quickly becoming irrelevant with the advent of Windows 8 tablets." You're joking, right? Let's see how this quarter's iPad sales numbers are relative to the Surface. If anyone should be worried about the (potential) rise of Windows 8 tablets, it's the Android camp, not Apple.

JANUARY 15, 2013 7:00 P.M.

Rich wrote:

If Cook had any vision and leadership, he
would split the stock 20 to 1 and it will double
in about 2 weeks post split. That is called
Leadership and taking care of Shareholders.
Too bad Tim Cook is in charge

JANUARY 15, 2013 8:12 P.M.

Edward Y wrote:

800 by end of 2013

JANUARY 15, 2013 8:33 P.M.

Paulo Lin wrote:

Dream on Edward, when the earnings come out, you will all know how much success Apple has had. How about $400 by summer latest? Wait until you see how few iPhone 5s actually sold. IPhone 5 has been problems from the start, bad publicity, scuffs out of the box, casing that dents easy, lack of innovation, a completely failed Apple maps, iOS6 with really nothing special except freezing up older iphone models. Unless Apple does something spectacular, down and down she will go!

JANUARY 15, 2013 8:41 P.M.

Robert Laughing wrote:

Blow Joe....I've bought MORE Apple, thanks to blow hards like you and the Wall Street gamers.....if you want a company that truly sucks, Ballsup presides over it, as it crashes in flames, TRYING to get Billy Boy, ALL his money out, before you guys wake up to real facts. Thank you, SELLERS!

All you other guys....lighten up, as poor Blow Joe is off his meds and outta his rubber room and rubber panties. Poor schmuck.....

JANUARY 16, 2013 2:05 A.M.

Mike wrote:

All u bears. Time to cash in now $$$$. Don't be piggies

JANUARY 16, 2013 2:12 A.M.

Robert* wrote:

Wasn't this website recently bullish on AAPL at higher levels?

JANUARY 16, 2013 8:33 A.M.

Scott wrote:

Wow this is just funny to read. It really doesn't take much to just read all the reports. All the negative sentiment is driven by rumours, all the positive sentiment is driven by numbers. Everyone loves to bash the biggest and best when they get a chance. In Australia we call it tall poppy syndrome, cutting down someone who's doing we'll. I continue to hear people carry on that this phones better than the iPhone, or this Laptop is better than the mac etc. Only one word SOFTWARE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I was one of the fools that would try and cheap out and not buy apple, what a FOOL I was. Now I only buy apple because they are RELIABLE ( not because its cool or innovative). Who cares if this phone has a better camera or graphics. Apple software doesn't fail. This reason alone will mean a solid future for the next few years at least.

As far as the stock goes, there are so many reasons to buy right now that I can't be bothered explaining. I may be wrong, but I am putting my money where my mouth is and actually buying a bucketload of calls tonight. As an option trader I have never gambled like this before, but can honestly not remember a better time to get into a stock (let alone the one of the most successful companies of all time)

JANUARY 16, 2013 8:41 A.M.

Paulo Lin wrote:

Scott, only you are the fool and are blind, if you talk about perfect software, did you forget about Apple Maps, Antenna gate, LOL!! Apple is not better or innovative and by far from perfect, you will learn the hard way

JANUARY 16, 2013 9:28 A.M.

Scott wrote:

Paulo, antennagate was a hardware issue. Maps is nothing more than a poorly built and rushed software program that can be fixed by updates. Google maps app for iOS has already fixed that. When I say apple software doesn't fail I mean it doesn't fully crap itself and leave you with lost data. I've gone through almost every major brand in IT equipement and the only one that is reliable is apple. One day they will be knocked off their perch but its not yet, that's why I've put in orders right now

JANUARY 16, 2013 9:44 A.M.

Paulo Lin wrote:

Well Scott, I'm quite familiar with Apple, I used to be an Apple dealer in the 80s with the Lisa, Mac and Apple II. Apple is far from perfect and yes the Antenna was a hardware issue however Steve Jobs fix was, give out free cases, very cheap for a company with huge profit margins. Can you tell me why the ipad mini costs $100 more for an extra 16GB? Does that make sense? It's not that Apple products are not good, it's that consumers are realizing that they are getting ripped off and that's why they are going to competitors like Android, example Nexus 7 is $30 for an extra 16GB and the tablet is better than the ipad mini, not to mention the restricted iOS compared to the fexlibility of Android. Why don't you look up "Software Innovation of the year popular science" and you will see a how Google NOW has made SIRI look outdated. Apple is no longer innovative and is behind the times. The only thing that can save Apple is to become more competitive and instead of making over 55% profit, maybe they should try and come down to 35% like other competitors such as Samsung. The Galaxy Note and 3 are prefect example of a superior device by far to the iPhone 5. CNET rates the Galaxy 3 tech device of the year and iPhone 5 second (that's just to be politically correct)

JANUARY 16, 2013 10:12 A.M.

Anonymous wrote:

Looking like the smart shorts and longs bought yesterday.

JANUARY 16, 2013 11:19 A.M.

eric wrote:

Joe - I am sorry for your loss. You sold at 487 and I bought it at 485. Nice gain for me today. I would not say that you made a bad choice given the circumstances, however, it is a bad investment decision. It is better to be save than sorry.
Apple Blue - You have no idea what you are talking about. Please stop investing.

JANUARY 16, 2013 12:28 P.M.

A. Reinhart wrote:

Scott.. you are spot on about the software! The Apple haters will never get it when it comes to the seamless and ultra-reliable nature of Apple products because the DON'T USE THEM! It's so easy to sling BS on these forums..the PC/MAC take sides argument is so tired but so often still deployed. Do feel sorry for this 'Joe' character I read about above however. He needs a beer or six to put the flames out!

JANUARY 16, 2013 2:11 P.M.

goldwatch wrote:

Hello Joe - Tell me how you feel today please - FAILURE

JANUARY 16, 2013 2:17 P.M.

Paulo Lin wrote:

Was obviously going to come back some after a 2 day >6% loss! My guess, tomorrow is short day again :-) The earnings are not out yet, my prediction, way below expected.

JANUARY 16, 2013 10:56 P.M.

goldwatch wrote:

Paulo, I was referring to Joe's mal decision of selling yesterday at $487 rather than selling today at above $500 to limit his tremendous loss!! Take it easy there, I see that you comment on every article about how the ER is going to be bad and all, can you tell me what the lotto number is? Guess not! But you can come clean to everyone at what position did you start shorting. Going around on the board to predict negatively is not going to help you - you look pretty pathetic swinging that Samsung flag. Just sit back and wait till the 23rd and have some class please.

JANUARY 17, 2013 9:33 A.M.

Paulo Lin wrote:

Good point Goldwatch, I'm just fed up of the blindness that these Apple minions have about high quality hardware and software. Everyone seems to forget the Antenna gate cover up by Steve Jobs, the failed Apple Maps and all the bad rap on the iPhone 5. All the comments about China selling huge amounts of iphone 5s! That's crazy, China, Taiwan, etc has always been known for clones of everything possible, even in the 80’s Steve Jobs couldn’t stop them from cloning Apple IIs. How can they expect to penetrate that market when it’s all about price! China’s consumers are all about gadgets and all for free so the only market there is Android and the abundance of free Apps. iPhone is no longer a cool gadget in comparison to the other android smartphones.

JANUARY 17, 2013 11:53 A.M.

Joe the Dummy wrote:

I heard Q4 is massive, over 50M iPhones, dividend to double and will be announced very soon. Joe this will be 600 in just a few weeks. You're a DA for dumping at 487 - we need more weak hands out of the market. And Melissa Lee is a chubby lil BB lover, hate that mousey chubby thing.

JANUARY 19, 2013 9:49 A.M.

Delicious wrote:

I didn't have to call customer support or go to the phone store once to fix or service Apple product. They are far superior quality pieces over any other piece out there. My son went over three Sucksung phones over two years. iPhone is worth every penny!

About Tech Trader Daily

Tech Trader Daily is a blog on technology investing written by Barron’s veteran Tiernan Ray. The blog provides news, analysis and original reporting on events important to investors in software, hardware, the Internet, telecommunications and related fields. Comments and tips can be sent to: techtraderdaily@barrons.com.