Mayor helps solve an L.A. crisis, but faces other hurdles

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Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti, center, flanked by UTLA President Alex Caputo-Pearl, left, and LAUSD Supervisor Austin Beutner, announces at a City Hall press conference Tuesday, Jan. 22, that the two sides have agreed on a new contract. (Photo by David Crane, Los Angeles Daily News/SCNG)

In some potentially important ways, Eric Garcetti’s presidential hopes got a lift Tuesday morning when the Los Angeles mayor helped end the teachers strike in the nation’s second-largest school district.

But Garcetti’s role in the settlement between officials of Los Angeles Unified and the teachers union is hardly a springboard to the White House — and it might even have a downside, political observers said in interviews.

The pluses are clear for Garcetti, who is thought to be preparing to launch what would be a long-shot campaign for the 2020 Democratic nomination.

First, it lends credence to the claim that a big-city mayor would make a good president because he or she has dealt with tangible problems. That’s a theme that might resonate well with voters frustrated by ideological battles and partisan standoffs in Washington, D.C., including the ongoing partial shutdown of the federal government.

Also, to the extent that United Teachers Los Angeles is happy with the settlement, Garcetti’s involvement in the agreement might appeal to Democratic activists who generally support unions and teachers.

At the very least, the teachers’ likely return to work Wednesday after a nine-day strike clears the way for Garcetti to embark on a national campaign without being accused of ignoring a crisis at home.

“It plays into a message that the mayor is someone who brings people together and gets the job done,” said Jeffrey Hernandez, a political science professor at East L.A. College. “The only negative is if people felt it (the strike) went on too long. I don’t see that happening. It wasn’t really his ballgame (when the strike started).”

“Voters sometimes look for a contrast with the current incumbent,” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor for Sabato’s Crystal Ball, the election forecasting site run by University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato. “An accomplished manager (of a major city) would present a nice contrast with the current president (Donald Trump).”

But analysts saw reasons that Garcetti’s star turn Tuesday morning — standing at a City Hall lectern and announcing the strike settlement following all-night talks — won’t instantly turn his image from mayoral to presidential:

• The more that Garcetti supporters portray the settlement as a major problem solved by the 47-year-old second-term mayor, the more opponents will point to other problems that remain unsolved, most notably the L.A. homelessness crisis. Garcetti was instrumental in passing city and county ballot measures to fund anti-homelessness projects, but the effects are years away. (The same goes for Garcetti’s successes in passing mass-transit ballot measures and bringing the 2028 Summer Olympics to L.A.)

“It was a big coup for him to get that stage,” said California Republican Party treasurer and former Downey mayor Mario Guerra, referring to the strike-ending announcement. “But there are a lot of things that need fixing here in Los Angeles. Everybody’s always looking for the next ladder up (to higher office). I think he should keep his campaign promises and fix the city first.”

• The apparent triumph for Garcetti, who publicly became involved in the negotiations shortly after the strike began Jan. 14, could blow up in his face if he overplays his hand by trying to overstate his role or the significance of the achievement.

• Even if he plays the deal-maker card right, Garcetti’s presidential bid won’t get a boost unless the rest of America notices. As of Tuesday afternoon the end of the L.A. teachers strike wasn’t a prominent headline on the Associated Press, New York Times or Washington Post websites.

In any case, Garcetti’s successful intervention in the standoff over teachers’ pay, class sizes and charter schools doesn’t remove other obstacles to a successful campaign for the Democratic nomination. Nobody has ever vaulted directly from mayor to president. (At least three other mayors have entered or are considering the 2020 race: Mitch Landrieu of New Orleans, Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Indiana, and former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg.) And Garcetti would start the campaign less well-known than the acknowledged leading contenders, who come mostly from the ranks of U.S. Senate and state governors.

“Ultimately, he’s someone who’s going to have to establish himself on the national stage,” said Kondik, the elections analyst from Virginia.

Garcetti wouldn’t even begin as the best-known Californian. U.S. Sen. Kamala Harris announced her candidacy Monday.

But Hernandez, the East L.A. College political scientist, didn’t think Harris’ prominence changes the calculus for Garcetti.

“I don’t think he has to worry about another Californian in the field,” Hernandez said. “He has to worry about whether his personality will excite voters.”

Garcetti spokesman Yusef Robb responded to a reporter’s question about a potential Garcetti announcement with an email Tuesday saying: “We’ll update you when there’s an update!”

Hernandez called the teachers-strike settlement a net plus for Garcetti’s presidential hopes.

“It makes him look a little more productive than would otherwise be the case.”