The project
uses a combination of factors — including weekly
online surveys of as many as 16,000 Americans' voter preferences
and hypothetical turnout rates for different demographics — to
gauge which candidate is most likely to win the presidency.

According to the project's latest estimates, Clinton beats Trump
by 6 percentage points in the popular vote and easily wins
traditionally blue states such as California and New York.
She would also win the crucial swing states of Ohio, Virginia,
and Florida by as many as 8 percentage points.

Her electoral college total would be at least 268 votes, or just
two fewer than the 270 votes a candidate needs to win the
election. Trump would follow with at least 179 electoral votes,
winning 21 states, many of which lie in the deep South, and some
of which have smaller populations, like Mississippi, Louisiana,
and Alabama.

In this scenario, Reuters/Ipsos estimates a 60% overall turnout
rate, with minorities turning out at 43%, African-American women
turning out at 59%, and white men turning out at 69%.

The poll also estimates that if millennials, considered a
critical voting bloc in this election, turned out at a lower rate
than expected, Clinton would still enjoy a comfortable victory by
a margin of 90 electoral votes.

In order for Trump to win the election, he would need to win the
21 states cited in the project, as well as racking up additional
victories in all of the eight states that are currently too close
to call, including Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and
Wisconsin, among others.

The project comes on the heels of a renewed attempt by the
Republican nominee to soften his tone and improve outreach to
minorities and women, two demographics that could be key to his
winning the presidency.

He took a step back from his stance on immigration on Wednesday –
a key tenet of his campaign platform – when
he said he would no longer seek to deport 11 million illegal
immigrants from the nation during a town hall with Fox News's
Sean Hannity.

Clinton has had issues of her own on the campaign trail, as the
FBI continues to investigate fallout from when she set up a
private email server when she was at the State Department.

More recently, she has come under fire from Donald Trump and
other critics, who have
pointed to the Clinton Foundation as being a symbol of
corruption and lack of transparency, because of an alleged
"pay-to-play" scheme that critics think existed between
influential Clinton Foundation donors and the former secretary of
state.