Breaking Down the Bear Raid

Today, we welcome Jeff Schell, another 2013 LTP contributor, in to the mix. Jeff, an avid LTP reader, stepped up to the call for contributors (more on that tomorrow) and will be breaking down a key play each week to help satisfy the football strategists in the house. If you live in Colorado and see a high school football team that has an offense very similar to Northwestern you now might know why. In addition to running a few start-up companies, Jeff moonlights as a high school football coach (offensive coordinator) at Thomas Jefferson High School in the Denver area. Jeff’s first person bio is at the end of this feature and you will want to read it to find out how a current NFL player altered his playing days forever. Ladies and gents, let’s welcome Mr. Schell!

With a catchy (if not forced) name suggestive of formations of B-52s dropping Ursus arctos californicus bombs into gold and blue endzones, one cannot help but wonder – does Sonny Dykes’ offense really bear atomic potential, or has the skillful marketing of the Berkeley propaganda arm fraudulently convinced legions of Cal fans of the second coming of Aaron Rodgers-era offensive potential? Let’s bear down:

Background of the Bear Raid:

The Bear Raid derives from the offense new Cal head coach Sonny Dykes deployed to achieve eye-popping stats in 2012 at Louisiana Tech. So eye-popping, in fact, that Sonny’s boys were the top offense in the country. Yeah, but they were Louisiana Tech, so they only played a bunch of MAC-level pushovers, right? WRONG! The offense worked against Johnny Football’s SEC Aggies to the tune of 57 (!!!) points. Sure, they also decimated bottom feeders Texas State, UTSA and the fightin’ Beckmans (please never fire Tim Beckman! Rantoul’s Big Ten Team 4eva!), but putting up the #1 offense in the country is no joke. We shall see how this plays out with the hippies.

What differentiates the Bear Raid from other offenses?

From a formational standpoint, the main differentiating factor of the Bear Raid is a base modified “diamond” formation. At Thomas Jefferson High School, where I coach offense in Denver, we run the diamond as a power-type offense, primarily in a goal line situation or where we simply want to steamroll another weaker opponent. Our more traditional diamond allows the Q to line up under center, two halfbacks on either side about 2 yards back, and then a tailback about 6 yards directly behind the center. We can run blast plays left or right – where our halfbacks lead block, set up (primarily goal line) play action passes, or run counter plays.

The minor change here from a formational standpoint is that the Bear Raid Q will line up in more of a pistol look, potentially sacrificing some downhill momentum of the HBs and TBs on the dive/iso/power game to give the Q a bit more space from the D line in the passing/option game. Let’s take a look at a typical progression from the La. Tech vs. Texas A&M barnstormer last year (A&M won 59-57):

Here’s your base diamond formation, which Cal now calls the “Grizzly.” (Hey Kellogg, as soon as Dykes is done with football, let’s get this guy an MBA in branding). Anyway, the right halfback looks like a big dude, more like a guard than a running back. For good reason.

Watch the right HB drive the D-end right out of the play, while the left HB comes across on a power block, from left to right, along with a pulling lineman. Boom smash pow:

The pulling lineman seals up that hole, while the tailback still has the left halfback as a lead blocker:

The lead blocking left TB (#99) logs in the LB opening up a big hole to the right. Note the excellent blocking of WR #4 on the bottom right (this offense is about execution, not complexity):

The running back has one man to beat. He lowers his shoulder and runs someone over, bringing a proud tear of joy into my eye. Touchdown, Duck Dynasty. Again note the sustained block by WR #4 at the bottom right. Execution, not complexity

Now lets take a look at another play, again on 3rd and short.

Again on third and short, La. Tech lines up in the diamond, while A&M walks up its safety to bring 8 in the box betting on the power run. This obviously is an exaggerated response by the Aggie D, but lest we ourselves get overly ambitious with our run own stopping…

The play action brings in the safety (likely on a blitz) and linebackers, leaving one on one coverage for the cornerbacks.

The resulting one on one coverage (see the safety sucked in and turning too late to help) does not bode well for the Aggie CB. Touchdown, Duck Dynasty. Everybody happy happy happy

Let’s hope VanHoose and especially Daniel Jones bring their A-games. They will be called upon not only to provide excellent coverage, but to shed blocks like grown men.

Notably – the style of Coach Sonny is worth mentioning. Calling a relatively risky play on 3rd and 1 was a very aggressive call. Yes, they were down big at this particular juncture in the game so risks were warranted, but Dykes is not a gunshy coach as the underdog. I expect a very aggressive gameplan against our ‘Cats. While getting pressure on the QB is a noble objective, we may want to avoid overzealous blitz calls and let the Bear Raid Q, who at this stage is only a cub, make his own mistakes.

One last point – Dykes is renowned for keeping his playbook simple and focusing on execution. I expect to see much of the above two plays or similar plays throughout the game. On one hand, this benefits us because our DBs likely will not face an overly complicated route scheme. On the otherhand, Cal boasts a very talented RB, Brandon Bigelow, who can really execute. The knock on him was that he couldn’t master John Wayne Jeff Tedford’s complex schemes last year. Remember this highlight against Ohio State?

What specifically should worry you:

As noted above, RB Brandon Bigelow. This is where the B’raid offense starts and ends. If Cal can get a running game going against NU, we’re in big trouble. One of the key advantages we have will be our relative experience, particularly against the inexperience of Cal’s starting QB, true freshman Jared Goff. In his first game since high school, he is going to make mistakes. There is simply no way that he can fully catch up to the increased pace of the college game, particularly against a solid Northwestern defense.

Talented running back Bigelow broke a few monster plays against Ohio State last year. We absolutely must contain him. Relatedly our offense needs to put up points and fast to make sure that Goff is throwing the ball as much as possible. Our secondary should pick him off, and if Goff holds on to the ball longer than three seconds, our talented defensive ends should eat him alive.

Key NU matchups:

Shutting down the rushing attack with our front four is my key to the game. In the Bear Raid, the rushing game sets up the passing game with a predictable formation and select grouping of plays. The emphasis is on execution, not variety of plays. Our front four versus the Cal O-line is the key battle of this game. If we need to start tweaking our defensive sets to bring additional support, we’re going to leave Daniel Jones on a lonely island.

Case in point – Daniel Jones in single coverage last year:

(Ok, that was just a bad bounce and I hear he is MUCH better this year.)

Wrinkles to watch for:

Dykes has a few tricks up his sleeve. He ran a statue of liberty play against Virginia last year to score a key touchdown. Look at the D lineman staring down the QB as the running back heads right by:

Final Verdict:

Sonny Dykes isn’t a head coach, he is the Cal football brand manager. The Bear Raid (in name only) won’t damage NU’s staunch defense as much through the air as it will through the ground. I think the key stat will be the amount of yardage NU gives up to Bigelow. If he picks up north of 150 yards, we’re in big trouble. Look for our defensive braintrust to put the burden on our defensive backs to handle a true frosh QB, while our d-line and LBs stay home to shore up against the run.

Don’t buy into Sonny’s propaganda machine. Barring the emergence of an unforeseen Cal superman (i.e. Cal’s version of Venric Mark 2012), NU is much better on both sides of the ball. I would take our spread multiple no-huddle in a heartbeat over the Bear Raid, despite our lack of catchy branding.

One thing Mr. Chong points out – the up-tempo no huddle offense as a key component of the Bear Raid. Anyone who has watched Northwestern football over the past decade or so knows the value of controlling the tempo of the game. Given that Dykes likely looked to Randy Walker’s NU offense as a template for his own hurry up offense at La Tech, I doubt we will have problems handling the Bear Raid hurry up.

Final Note:

This is my first breakdown for LTP this year. Awesome.

I’m looking forward to reading your comments, and hearing about what I missed. I’m always trying to get better and see things from different angles. Aside from practicing patent law and running a few start-up companies in Denver, I coach offense at Thomas Jefferson High School. Since I am such a Northwestern fan, I literally copied Northwestern’s no huddle offense concepts and built them into our own offense. Before moving to Denver this year, I coached offense at Lincoln Park High School and Vernon Hills High School in Chicagoland. I won the golden helmet in high school at Bay City Central High School as a running back before future Superbowl MVP Lamarr Woodley hit me so hard that I had to be taken off of the field in an ambulance. This ended my football career until I had the opportunity to play for the Dublin Dragons of the Irish American Football League in Dublin, Ireland, while on a program there to study European Union Law.

I’m probably going to reference and compare my own coaching experiences in my posts. I hope this doesn’t annoy you, and look forward to hearing your creative ideas, criticisms and suggestions. You can message me here, or catch me at the NU-Michigan and NU-Nebraska games this year, or at the Blake Street Tavern for game watches in Denver.

Finally, I am recruiting ski buddies. If you want a ski buddy and you are in Colorado at any point to ski this year, shoot me a message. I know all the secret stashes at Vail.

Post navigation

This was a great post. Thank you for summing up the Bear Raid offense!

After watching our LBs last year, I am pretty confident this group has the athleticism and competency to contain these types of run games, and a stud running back. Last year, our LBs were sharp in key contests against MSU and NEB and both had a lot of firepower on the ground. If you couple that with the growth and expectations for our D Line this might be a defensive showing not seen by Northwestern in a while.

This offense will be a great test for the secondary. We know Campbell can roll up and play the run very well, and VanHoose is a stud. Time for the new starters to step up! I’m getting pumped! Go ‘Cats!

Jeffrey Schell

I’m worried about our DBs. Stopping the run will go far to take the pressure off of them. Daniel Jones needs to prove himself this year, starting tomorrow. But I think back to the growth McManis had year to year and have confidence

Broadcasting Wisdom

Could you break down Northwestern’s plays like this too? I love the progressive snap shots with analysis.

Jeffrey Schell

Actually I plan to focus almost exclusively on NU’s plays throughout the season, both because I find them more interesting as a fan, and also because I want to fully assimilate concepts from them as much as possible into TJ’s offense.

wildcatneighbor

As a Regis alum…I may have to share that info. ;-)

Jeffrey Schell

Cool, the game is played as much off of the field as on :)

Joe Nunziante

Nice work, Schell! Though, based on your previous writing experience (Purple), I was expecting some more colorful language…and perhaps a well-placed dig on Robbins.

Go ‘Cats!

Jeffrey Schell

I will get more creative in my language as the season rolls on

Xultaif

You severly underestimate the quality of Cal’s receiving corps.

Jeffrey Schell

You severely overestimate the ability of Cal’s quarterback to make use of her receivers

Mark

Jeff, can you address the earlier criticism that the Cats CBs play off the line of scrimmage too far. I thought that in their usual defensive set they were responsible for their third or fourth of a field through the end zone and thus don’t play press coverage. Any insight appreciated as well as your post above. Go Cats!

Jeffrey Schell

Mark: I know not the criticism you refer to. However, I will say this about coverages. In Cover 3, your CBs typically have their deep third, so they need to get back. The LBs have the flats, so it isn’t terrible to back off and give yourself an extra step if you are facing athletic receivers (like Cal’s). Personally, I will exploit those defenses, like I plan to exploit Littleton’s backing off coverage, through short passes, excellent attack-style stick blocking, and well executed sweep plays with strong side crack blocks from the H/Z slot receivers. The essence of bend-not-break D. Until we haul in a few four star studs I don’t think the softer cover three style D is a bad idea for us against more athletic WRs. Hope that helps

Mark

Yes, that directly answers my question. Criticism of our CBs playing too far off the line of scrimmage was on earlier post on this blog. My understanding was same as yours – in cover 3 my responsibility as a CB is through the back of the end zone on my 1/3 of the field and thus unless I am a “four star stud” or five star stud I’ll give the receiver a cushion. I do not play press coverage unless a defensive call – probably blitzing the house – directs me to do so.

then replace deep thirds with deep quarters above, I think. I’m sure we throw in robber coverages and safety blitzes from time to time. My basic point is unless we are athletic as the WRs we face (we likely aren’t), we should be giving space and giving up the 3-5 yard gains instead of the home run plays. Hopefully our 1-2-3 break steps (to change direction) are polished up.

Littleton is the team that Thomas Jefferson High School (my team) plays tonight. Had some kids suspended (yikes!) will let you know how that goes next week.

Jeffrey Schell

I did say very little about Cal’s receiving corps. I think the receivers will only be as good as the quarterback will allow them to be. With the quality of our D line, I’m hoping and expecting that the receivers will have a hard time getting the ball thrown to them.

Part of me also feels that the emphasis on the passing game so far has minimized the running game, which I think represents the greatest threat to NU of the Cal offense.

Also, no one, save for perhaps the NU staff who may have scouted Cal in practice, has film on how the Cal receivers look in this offense. I doubt that Cal’s receivers are any better than Mississippi State’s, and I can almost certainly say that Cal’s quarterback will be worse than Mississippi State’s in the first game of his career.

Joe: dig on Robbins coming. Re: “Purple” I have no idea what you are talking about ( :) ) let’s keep that on an in the know basis only

Xultaif

If your CBs really lay off the receivers you are in for a long day. Dykes system is short accurate passes meant to get talent into space. Harper, in particular, was excellent as a true frosh last year in YAC. While I agree the true frosh will have some growing pains, I very much doubt he’s going to complete less than 50% of these type of passes. Treggs, Harpers, Lawler, Powe, and Rodgers will be one of the best WR cores in the country. I very much doubt Miss State has that level of talent.

Jeffrey Schell

I think that our safeties, particularly Traveon Henry, will make themselves known to the Cal receivers. There will be a price to pay for short passes.

Also, MSU QB had by far his worst game of the season coming off of injury. You seriously think that Goff will do worse than a 47% completion percentage, with 6.5 yards per completion, and a 2 TD 2 INT day? Good luck with that. You do know Goff beat out the #2 QB recruit in the country?

Xultaif

I looked at the wrong game. His stats were much worse than I inidcated. 43% completion percentage. 106 yards passing. 3.8 yards per reception. 4 INTS! I dare say that would be the worst QB performance in Cal history. Did I wake up and not realize Cal was playing LSU?

Jeffrey Schell

What I do not expect is for Goff to come in and play dominant football. I think 2TDs and 2INTs would be a good game for a true freshman Q. If he puts up 3 that is a great game. If 4, then NU is in trouble. I expect about an even ratio of TDs:INTs from Goff

Xultaif

I’m still blown away by this. You honestly think your team can hold Cal to 100 yards passing?

skepticat

Some serious reading comprehension fail, I’m afraid.

1) The only statistic mentioned anywhere is: “if [Cal RB Brandon Bigelow] picks up north of 150 yards, we’re in big trouble.” Nowhere do I see a claim of holding Cal’s receivers to under 100 yards.

2) Nowhere do I see the talent of the Cal receivers called into question (or even mentioned!), only that the QB, because of his inexperience (not to mention 3 new starters on the O-line), will have trouble getting the ball to them.

Sure, one can debate whether he simply had a bad day or if our D had something to do with it — we’re not LSU, after all.

Hopefully Saturday will provide some clarity on these issues.

cece

Thinking of the awesome Brian Musso watching the march from D.C. where his wife, Northwestern’s own Heather Headley is singing on the steps of the Lincoln Memorial before the President speaks. awesome. Go ‘Cats everywhere and in all ways.

http://www.LakeThePosts.com/ LTP

Great catch cece. Hard to find any event without an NU tie, right?

HeyWhat?

Good post Jeff. Always appreciate it when things are spelled out for those of us who never “strapped it on” and stepped on the field.

I lost your current email address…shoot me a quick note when you’ve got a minute and I’ll get you back in the contact list.

Also pumped for the burn of “The Body”. Keep it coming!

Jeffrey Schell

You going to come out skiing CO this year or what?

Also any clever T-Shrt ideas for the Nebby game? Let me know, let’s grab a beer in Lincoln

GreenLantern

More of these please! Very much looking forward to these during that long Tuesday-Thursday stretch while waiting for the next game.

GoU_NU

I love this stuff. I’ve been watching football for enough years to understand the basics, but recognizing these kinds of details still eludes me somewhat. Different plays from identical formations and when they’re run and why, line play both offensive and defensive… I love these breakdowns. Maybe a weekly Google Hangout where you can diagram on live moving video!!

Go ‘Cats

Jeffrey Schell

Actually that sounds like fun. Maybe LTP will help me set that up

VH

Thank you for the great analysis and breaking down the bear raid

Brett K

Schell, your analysis focuses on the running game and largely ignores that the passing game as a threat to NU because Cal’s QB is a true freshman. While you may consider the diamond a running formation because that’s what you use it for in HS, this offense isn’t called the Bear Raid because it’s a Georgia Tech style running attack. La Tech had the 3rd most passing yards per game in the NCAA in 2012, the 9th most completed passes, and 5th most passing yards.

One only has to look to last year, Manziel, Marriota, Hundley, to see that freshman QBs can indeed thrive given the right system. Cal Freshman QB Goff isn’t some walk-on either. He was the #8 overall QB in last year’s class per Rivals.

NU fans should hope that the NU coaching staff takes the Bear Raid aerial threat more seriously than Mr. Schell has here.

Trollario

While you might be correct about Cal landing a Maziel, Mariotta, or Hundley, I think the odds overwhelmingly favor the opposite. Plus, Manziel, Mariotta, and Hundley all have more speed than Goff and a much greater ability to improvise if a play breaks down, given that they are not pro-style QBs, so that comparison is poor to quite poor. It should also be noted that those fantastic results that Dykes produced at LA Tech were not produced in his first year, nor with first year players.

It’s true that Cal has the athletes at WR to give NU some trouble, but I think it’s safe to say that Goff is more likely to struggle in his first game since HS. He will have to contend against a D that featured the Big Ten’s number 2 sack leader last year and a rushing D that placed 21st in the nation (allowing 128 yards per game). Not to mention, Cal’s offensive line now feature three starters who have a combined zero collegiate starts.

Should be a great game, and definitely no walk in the park for NU. But I’m skeptical that Cal has the next freshman Heisman winner on their roster.

Brett K

@Trollario. I’m not saying Goff is a Heisman candidate or similar in play style or ability to those mentioned. I am only saying that Schell was too simplistic in his analysis relying on the argument Goff is a freshman and therefore shitty.

Cal doesn’t need the next Johnny Football @ QB to create problems for NU. It only needs a player competent enough to exploit NU’s marginal secondary. Look at NU’s losses and close games last year. Stopping the run wasn’t the problem.

This game will be decided on turnovers and big plays. If the NU pass rush can get to Goff and force sacks/picks, Cal is in trouble. I hope NU brings 8 into the box to stop the run, it gives Goff the opportunity to throw to single man coverage.

Richard

So who’s the first true (not redshirt) freshman pro-style (thus can not use his innate athleticism as a crutch) QB to have performed well? In his first game?

You must not have watched too many NU games, BTW, because Ibraheim Campbell and Nick VanHoose are ballplayers. As in I fully expect Campbell to be All-BigTen and VanHoose to be an above-average B10 CB.

Arnie

Can anyone forget VanHoose’s heroics saving the Minnesota game?

Jeffrey Schell

So my freshman q at TJHS proved the difficulty of game speed transition. Our NU style no huddle put up 20, but unfortunately our slow start (in part caused by the untimely suspension of some team leaders) did us in. Still, not bad for a city school starting 8 freshmen on varsity going up against a suburban power

Jeffrey Schell

Actually, BK, that is 100% true. I expect Goss not to e caught up to the speed of the game. Unlike NU’s complex system, which sets players to succeed in the context of the system, Dykes set up his system to rely on player execution rather than complexity. Makes for a fascinating matchup of completely opposite offensive philosophies. Any coach worth his salt knows to use a smash route to beat a zone. NU’s option passes are really something to behold. But yea I expect Goss to turn the ball over 3+ times, which makes the running game the true threat. If the running game succeeds, the passing game will open up for Cal.

I also suspect the NU coaches have put significantly more effort into preparing for the Cal offense — both the running and passing attack — than the brief overview that this article is supposed to provide.

Guess we’ll see on Saturday though.

Jeffrey Schell

Hi Kass. I see you there. First, I am looking at the whole Cal offense and evaluating its most dangerous threats. Unless the bear cub Q grows up to be a man fast, he will not be caught up to the speed of the game. This is especially true if our D line gets pressure, and considering the caliber of our D-ends (top 3 B1G unit), I expect them to be in the face of the Q all day. If the NU CBs stay home in their zones, the Q should not have enough time to fully exploit the athleticism of the WRs.

This all goes to hell if we can’t stop the run or get pressure on the Q. Dykes’ offense thrives off of the play action pass, which is set up by the run game. top the run, don’t bite as much on the fake.

Fanaticat

Sorry, but La Tech had a Sr QB last year I believe. The others to whom you referred: Manziel, Mariota, Hundley were all RS Fr, a BIG difference from Goff who will be experiencing his first college game on Saturday. Would you be as high on our chances if we were starting Alviti (similarly ranked out of HS) this weekend?

John Olsen

Nicely done! I will look forward to your future posts.

One suggestion – video works better than still photos on my device, if you can also link videos of the plays you are breaking down that would be awesome!

Paul K

Excellent post Jeff. Look forward to more of these, and I agree that video links would be a great bonus.

Jeffrey Schell

Cool. I will keep vids in mind. I also plan to annotate stills with graphics/drawings which should help moving forward as well

J.R. McCullough

I just read that Cal will be starting three freshman offensive linemen. This does not bode well for Mr. Goff. Mr. Scott and his talented teammates will make Bear stew of him.

Jeff — This is an excellent, excellent post. Look forward to more. One SoCal nugget for Wildcat fans: Bryce Treggs, who is a sophomore Cal wide receiver, went to elementary school with our kids. He then moved on to high school at St. John Bosco in Bellflower, California, which is well-known in these parts for its football teams. His dad played in the NFL. Bryce started as a freshman at Berkeley so he obviously has some talent …

Jeffrey Schell

John Bosco is a nationally known HS powerhouse.

Henry in Rose Bowl Country

This is all very interesting but the take-away has to be that Cal is a much tougher customer than most of us want to admit. I rate Cal 9th of 12 in the PAC 12 ahead of Utah, WSU and Colorado. However, we really don’t know but 9th isn’t so bad when you consider that this league has Stanford, UCLA, USC, ASU, Oregon, OSU and Washington, all of which would contend in the B1G. In fact, if we handle Cal on the road I’ll go so far as say that NU can handle anyone in the B1G with the exception of Ohio St and possibly Michigan. And Cal is very likely much better than everyone realizes
because they have exceptional talent and now they have a top coach. Obviously there is the question of their freshman QB and the fact that it is their first game under a new regime…advantages for us. If we win this, even if it is a bail-biter, it will turn out to be a very good win. The last I looked the O/U was 56. We are going to have to score 30+ even with our new stellar defense. This is a very important game especially because Ohio St plays them at Cal in two weeks. We’re going to know pretty early how good we really are and where we stand.

Richard

Um what? I suppose ASU, OrSt., and Washington _could_ contend for the B10 title, but I think that there are several teams in the B10 (including NU) better than all of those 3.

Henry in Rose Bowl Country

The PAC 12 is as underrated as the B1G is overrated. Imagine having to play UCLA’s schedule…Cal, Stanford, Oregon, Washington, ASU, Arizona, and USC plus Nebraska out of conference. I expect UCLA to go 8-4 or possibly 9-3 and win the PAC 12 south and then lose to either Stanford or Oregon in the title game. I seriously doubt that Ohio St which may be undefeated in the B1G could do better than UCLA against that schedule.

I am now confident that our D can handle this. Plus, I haven’t seen anything that suggests CAl’s receivers (who have something to do with a pass attack) are especially formidable.

Welcome to Paradise

Hurricane Dave once drank 15 beers before Lizard Bash

Jeffrey Schell

I wouldn’t know anything about that…

Doug

Abandon the Evil Empire; Ski the ‘Boat!

About Lake The Posts

The name Lake The Posts is a nod to the past (pre 1995) of Northwestern football when students would rip down the FG posts after ANY win and march them the mile east in to Lake Michigan. The term "lake" is a verb around Evanston and students would chant "Lake The Posts".

If you have feedback, tips, questions or opinions you'd like to share contact us at laketheposts @ gmail dot com.

Enjoy!

Donate

Help keep Lake The Posts up and running... and growing! Your contribution—whatever you're kind enough to give—will help make LTP a community that can continue to grow and better serve YOU!