Buffalo meat export from India is likely to be hit, with the ban in Maharashtra and Haryana on sale of beef and the killing of bulls and bullocks, in addition to cows. This is expected to raise local consumption demand for buffalo meat.

The other big challenge is a sharp fall in the Brazilian currency, the real, making meat export from Brazil much more competitive than India's.

“As Maharashtra is a major exporter, reduced availability will have a negative impact on overall buffalo meat export,” said Ajay Sahai, director-general of the Federation of Indian Export Organisations.

Brazil has been a major competitor in buffalo meat export in many markets. Till recently, Indian meat was 25 per cent cheaper. However, the real's depreciation over the past six months has ended this price advantage; in some markets, Brazilian meat is cheaper than in India, said a large exporter, on condition of anonymity. He sees Brazilian currency depreciation as a bigger challenge than the beef ban in two states.

In six months, the real has depreciated 34.8 per cent against the dollar; the rupee has fallen only two per cent. And, with the beef ban, some of the meat which would have been exported was likely to be diverted for domestic consumption.

All India Meat & Livestock Exporters Association on Wednesday said, “The legislative changes in Maharashtra or Haryana do not affect the buffalo meat export industry in any manner whatsoever, as the buffalo species is separate from bullocks, as also from sheep, goat or poultry etc. Since the buffalo meat industry uses spent and unproductive livestock, it eases lot of burden of the farmers since there is shortage of fodder in the country, apart from the fact that the industry generates foreign exchange in excess of $5 billion per annum.”

There is also the present reluctance of many to bring animals for slaughter to the registered abattoirs, especially in Maharashtra. Exporters of meat hope buffalo slaughtering resumes once the dust settles. Meat is the top export among agricultural commodities.

Beef consumers are bound to shift to buffalo meat as price of both products move almost hand-in-hand, at Rs 140-160 a kg.

“The ban on slaughtering of the progeny of cows will increase local demand for buffalo meat, poultry products, goat and sheep meat. Since overall availability of buffaloes for slaughtering is expected to remain almost unchanged, the quantity for export would be lower. With the local price is expected to rise, exports would be lower in the coming years,” said G P Rane, the state government's deputy commissioner of animal husbandry.

Buffalo meat export rose 16.8 per cent in value terms to $4,156 million between April 2014 and January 2015, the first nine months of this financial year, from the same period a year before.

The All India Meat & Livestock Exporters Association today said: "The legislative changes in Maharashtra or Haryana do not affect the buffalo meat export industry in any manner whatsoever, as the buffalo species is separate from bullocks, as also from sheep or got or poultry etc. Since the buffalo meat industry uses spent and unproductive livestock, it eases lot of burden of the farmers since there is shortage of fodder in the country, apart from the fact that the industry generates foreign exchange in excess of $5 billion per annum."