Степанян Դավիթ Stepanyan Ստեփանյան David Давид

Republicans will have to share power with Prosperous Armenia and ARF Dashnaktsutyun in 2017

“Yes” to
the new Constitution, said if not by majority of the Armenian society, but the
power majority, set the record straight related to the authorities’ further
intentions and plans in Armenia. In your opinion will the Republicans manage to
receive majority again in new parliament of 2017?

It is more possible, that Republican
Party of Armenia (RPA) will not gain the majority and will have to share the
power with Prosperous Armenia and ARF Dashnaktsutyun, which may become its
“junior partners”. The fact that these Parties supported the idea of
Constitutional referendum and recognized the legitimacy of the referendum
results counts for this version. Now it
can be expected that they will have chances to claim seats in the parliament
and in the future government. However, RPA will of course maintain the leading
role.

There is a version, according to
which the Constitutional amendments in Armenia where initiated by “Western order” as well, which has ambitious
aims, naturally conflicting with the Russian ones. What do you think of this?

It is obvious, that the US Embassy did not
actively countered holding of the referendum, its stand was primarily neutral.
It had no intention to demonstrate active involvement, aimed at overthrowing
the third president of Armenia, as it happened with Shirvanzade, Yanukovich or
the current Syrian president Bashar Asad. This neutral stand may however
change, but not in the near future. After the referendum the USA and its allies
will try to use the situation in order to support in parliamentary elections of
2017 those Armenian politicians, whom they sympathize. Unlike the USA, Moscow
prefers not to play its own game in the Armenian domestic political space; it
mainly takes into account the international level of our bilateral relations
and the common security problems. External factors may have serious impact on
Armenia. The problem of terrorism and everything that happens in Iraq, Syria
and the neighboring countries may seriously affect the whole South Caucasus
region. Obviously, this impact will lead to new problems for Armenia and the
whole region rather than will contribute to the solving of the existing ones.

The new Constitution proposes
“blurring” of the power authorities and consequently, the responsibilities
between the government, parliament and the president. Is such situation in the
interests of Armenia’s partners, and Russia in particular?

This causes serious concerns over the
efficiency of the new mechanism of power. However, it remains to be seen
whether these fears will become real.

One has the impression that the
change from the semi-presidential to parliamentary form of government in such
countries as Armenia is nothing else then a way to establish collective
irresponsibility. What are the perspectives of this in your opinion, taking
into consideration the unsettled Karabakh conflict and ISIS, terrorizing in 500
km?

Collective irresponsibility is a suicide
path for the whole ruling elite. Hardly any of Armenian politicians will
prioritize this path. It is more possible that other political tasks are being
settled, such as power retention in the context of termination of Serzh
Sargsyan’s second presidential term and the perspective of upcoming
parliamentary and presidential elections. It is not likely that the authors of
the current Constitutional reforms have in advance developed an action program
for a long-term perspective. They need to solve the problem of 2017 and 2018
elections and the further developments will depend on the results of these
elections and new political setup.

The new Constitution provides the
president with “vague” right to appoint the commanders of Armed Forces and to
award military ranks exclusively out of the candidates, suggested by the prime
minister. In case a war is declared the prime minister will become the Chief
Commander of Armed Forces. At the same time, the prime minister will
practically depend on the Republican Party, having majority in the parliament.
Won’t such blurring of the army command lead to new threats and risks of
Armenia and Artsakh’s national security?

Such
threat may arise in case the prime minister does not control the situation in
the parliament and the ruling party. If he manages to control everything the
strict vertical power system will be maintained and there will be no blurring
in the command of army. In this case the situation will depend on whether the
parliamentary system will be more effective in solving social-economic problems
in Armenia. For Armenia the situation will also depend on the external factors,
particularly, how the situation will develop in Iraq, Syria and the neighboring
countries. And surely, a lot will depend on whether US Embassy will maintain
neutral stand personally toward the third president and possible future prime
minister of Armenia Serzh Sargsyan.