Warriors vs. Blazers – NBA Pick for February 14th

by Kevin Roberts
on February 14, 2018

All odds that are referenced in this article were taken from Bovada at 9:13 am on 2/13/2018. These odds may have changed since the time of this writing.

The Detroit Pistons burned me in my last NBA pick, as Blake Griffin wasn’t able to exact revenge on his former Los Angeles Clippers squad. The defeat snapped a sweet four-game winning streak I had rolling and dropped my season NBA picks mark to 49-36-2 on the year.

I’ve been away from the NBA picks scene for a few days, but I’m hopping back in the saddle for a huge 12-game NBA betting slate on Wednesday night.

Terrible NBA scheduling can be seen again, as bettors get 12 games to work with on Wednesday and just two on Thursday. After that, bettors will have to get their fix elsewhere for a few days, as the NBA takes a break for the 2018 All-Star weekend.

I’ll simply be counting my blessings and/or licking my wounds from the first half of the year, but hopefully, I can hit the midway point with 50+ wins. The aim is to land number 50 on Wednesday when there is probably too much value to pass up in Portland.

Wednesday night certainly offers plenty of intrigue, but I am loving the perceived value I get when the Golden State Warriors (-6.5 favorites at Bovada) head to the Moda Center to take on the Portland Trail Blazers.

I’m sure Damian Lillard and company will be up to play for this one, but the defending champion Dubs have quite the mental hold in this series (seven straight regular season wins). These two sides have met just once this year, but the Warriors managed to top this very spread in a 111-104 win at the Oracle Arena.

The scenery changes in this one, but I’m not sure the result will.

Neither Kevin Durant or Draymond Green were able to suit up for the first showdown, but if they can play on Wednesday, the Blazers will surely have their work cut out for them.

Golden State Warriors (-6.5)

VS

Portland Trail Blazers (+6.5)

Total: 226.5

This Total is insane and the Warriors offer no value as a straight up bet, so there are really only three viable plays here; ride the Blazers straight up (+200 at BetNow), back Portland to beat this spread or take the Dubs to cover.

I do see the value with the Blazers. They will absolutely come to play initially and they actually can at times matchup with Golden State fairly well. They have the dynamic offense to match wits with the league’s best offense, while their defense (10th in efficiency) isn’t too bad, either.

If you’re going to pick Portland, this could be a good time to do it. The value is decent enough and they tend to be tougher outs (16-10) at the Moda Center. There is the possibility with the All-Star break coming up that the Dubs also rest some players and/or lose focus.

While all of that is interesting, all signs currently point to the Warriors being at full strength heading into this one. This is a series Golden State has flat out dominated, while they’ve clearly been playing with a sense of urgency later.

Following their first two-game losing streak of the season, the Dubs ripped off three straight victories – none of which were by fewer than 17 points. All three games were at home, but Golden State has looked very sharp and even dismantled a well-coached Spurs team in the process.

The Dubs are always a tough team to contest with. Offensively, they have three-star marksmen that can kill you from anywhere on the floor. Golden State ranks #1 in points scored, shooting percentage from long range and shooting percentage from the floor.

The Warriors also play at the second-fastest pace in the NBA and somehow still boast the league’s #1 overall offense.

As amazing as their offense and speed on the court can be, Golden State still locks teams down and enters Wednesday with the fifth most efficient defense in the league.

I can see trying to show Portland some respect on their home floor, but very little about this matchup should have bettors going hard after the Blazers.

Portland is a solid team, but they’ve proven time and time again they’re not on Golden State’s level.

I appreciate that the Blazers have stood firm in the face of Vegas betting against them at home (3-1 ATS as home underdogs), but they’re just 11-9-2 against the spread as underdogs, overall.

Golden State doesn’t really get flustered on the road. They’re just 26-30-1 against the spread on the year, but that’s because they usually are forced to top insanely fat point spreads. This is not one of those spreads.

I see Portland as a mild threat, but I can get elite value with the Dubs, who are seemingly on a tear as they get ready for the All-Star break. I don’t see them letting things end badly before they put their feet up this weekend.