S.J. jobs outlook brighter

Friday

Sep 20, 2013 at 12:01 AM

STOCKTON - Brand-new large-scale employers, an improving market for real estate and increased construction activity - especially in the west Tracy area - are expected to help the greater Stockton area lead job growth in Northern California for the next year.

Joe Goldeen

STOCKTON - Brand-new large-scale employers, an improving market for real estate and increased construction activity - especially in the west Tracy area - are expected to help the greater Stockton area lead job growth in Northern California for the next year.

That's the "slightly optimistic" outlook projected for the next year in the latest California and Metro Forecast from University of the Pacific's Business Forecasting Center, which was released Thursday. Center director Jeffrey Michael, however, put the brakes on making too much out of the report.

"It's been a decade of net zero. We shouldn't overstate how wonderful things are. There are still a lot of problems, but our confidence in the recovery is improving," Michael said.

"We still have a long way to go, probably 2016, before we recover our pre-recession job levels," he said.

The Stockton metro area is projected to see a 3.4 percent growth rate in jobs through 2014, according to the report. Behind a lot of that growth is the Amazon distribution center opening soon in Tracy, expected to eventually employ 1,000 workers. Starting pay will be $13.50 an hour along with a full benefits package.

The California Health Care Facility opened this summer in southeast Stockton, serving inmates from the California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation. When its more than 1,700 beds are filled, it will have an estimated 2,400 employees, many of whom will be earning salaries in the $60,000 range and higher.

Those salaries "help lift the overall average wages and income levels reflected in the region. They can support home purchases," Michael said.

Statewide, the report forecasts that California will experience faster economic growth over the next two years, with real gross state product reaching 3.3 percent in 2014 and accelerating to 3.9 percent in 2015 as the housing recovery fuels new construction. That nearly 4 percent growth rate will be the fastest since 2005, before the recession.

About 280,000 new construction jobs are expected to be created during the next four years, accounting for about a quarter of the 1.1 million new jobs the state will add during that time. However, the report noted that is still fewer construction jobs than before the recession.

All things considered, Michael considered the September forecast "a marginal improvement over previous forecasts - not a major shift or blockbuster news." For the full report, visit forecast.pacific.edu.