There is constant chatter on this board and in the media about how freshmen RBs should be able to contribute right away. The basic tenet of this belief is that if a RB is athletic and is any good, he'll be able to produce right away. Sure, he might not have the nuances of pass protection and route running down, but he should at least be able to pick-up some yards on running downs as a true freshman. Guys like T.J. Yeldon make this easy to believe.

So, I decided to find out how true this is. If you suck as a freshman RB, are you likely to be any good at any point in your career? If Derrick Green doesn't contribute significantly this season, should we ? Going even further, is Rawls a lost cause at this point? Hayes?

Having a little less time than I'd like to do a thorough examination of the data, I used a somewhat limited sample: the top 40 RBs in terms of yards/game from 2012. I broke seasons into three categories: Primary starter (PS), significant back-up (SB), and insignificant season (IS).

These categories are actually surprisingly simple to define: Primary starters are obvious, and guys that are significant contributors at the position are equally easy to separate from the dudes that get trash-time and spot carries. Insignificant seasons also include redshirts, but not medical redshirts. I also took out JUCOs.

Here are the top 40 RBs from 2012 (NOT in order of production):

PS

SB

IS

Player

School

Class

1

1

0

Ka'Deem Carey

Arizona

SO

2

1

0

Le'Veon Bell

Mich St

JR

2

2

0

Montee Ball

Wisconsin

SR

4

0

0

Johnathan Franklin

UCLA

SR

3

0

0

James Sims

Kansas

JR

2

1

0

Joseph Randle

Okla St

JR

2

0

0

Jahwan Edwards

Ball State

SO

4

0

0

Montel Harris

Temple

SR

1

0

0

Kenneth Dixon

La Tech

FR

1

0

0

Todd Gurley

Georgia

FR

3

1

0

Zach Line

SMU

SR

3

0

0

Tim Cornett

UNLV

JR

3

0

0

Charles Sims

Houston

JR

2

2

0

Zac Stacy

Vanderbilt

SR

1

1

0

Darrin Reaves

UAB

SO

1

2

1

Kenjon Barner

Oregon

SR

2

0

1

Giovani Bernard

N Carolina

SO

1

2

1

Kerwynn Williams

Utah State

SR

3

0

1

Robbie Rouse

Fresno St

SR

1

0

1

Bishop Sankey

Washington

SO

3

0

1

Stepfan Taylor

Stanford

SR

1

1

1

Dri Archer

Kent State

JR

1

1

1

Carlos Hyde

Ohio State

JR

1

2

1

Latavius Murray

UCF

SR

1

1

1

Jerome Smith

Syracuse

JR

1

1

1

Jawon Chisholm

Akron

SO

1

0

2

Stefphon Jefferson

Nevada

JR

1

0

2

Antonio Andrews

Western Ky

JR

1

0

2

David Fluellen

Toledo

JR

1

0

2

Beau Blankenship

Ohio

JR

1

1

2

Kasey Carrier

New Mexico

JR

1

0

2

Adam Muema

SDSU

SO

1

0

2

Venric Mark

N'western

JR

2

0

2

Raymond Maples

Army

JR

1

1

2

Eddie Lacy

Alabama

JR

1

1

2

Mike Gillislee

Florida

SR

1

1

2

D.J. Harper

Boise St

SR

1

0

3

Zurlon Tipton

C Mich

JR

1

0

3

Cody Getz

Air Force

SR

1

0

3

George Winn

Cincinnati

SR

61

22

31

Totals

I have to admit, I was pretty surprised. Only 15 (37.5%) avoided having insignificant or redshirt seasons their first year on campus. And only six (15%) were the primary starters as true freshman, leaving nine (22.5%) as back-ups. That means the vast majority, 25 players (62.5%) spent at least one year doing nothing or next-to-nothing. Of those 25, only four (10%) went from insignificance to starting in one season. The rest (21, 52.5%) spent at least two years developing before becoming starters. And nearly as many (14, 35%) spent multiple years doing almost nothing as jumped right in as contributors (PS or SB) in their true freshmen campaigns. Heck, even Eddie Lacy redshirted.

This is admittedly a small sample size, but it's enough to draw some basic conclusisons:

Plenty of talented RBs have insignificant seasons; many have more than one

RARELY does a freshman RB burst onto the scene as a primary starter

About half of these guys spend at least two years developing before they start

The experts are idiots (of course, I must admit that I believed the "if they're any good they'll contribute as true freshmen stuff before I looked at it)

And some Michigan-specific conclusions:

If Green and/or Smith doesn't contribute significantly this year, he's unlikely to start next year

We shouldn't worry if Green and/or Smith doesn't contribute significantly this year

Hope is not lost for Hayes, Johnson, or even Rawls.

It's worth noting that a few of the guys that spent multiple seasons developing turned out to be pretty darn good players. Guys like Eddie Lacy, Venric Mark, Carlos Hyde, Kenjon Barner, and Stefphon Jefferson all spent at least a couple seasons as insignificant contributors. On the flipside of that coin, lots of the best talent contributed early: Ka'Deem Carey, Le'Veon Bell, Montee Ball, Johnathan Franklin, and Todd Gurley.

Basically, we don't need to worry if Green and Smith don't contribute this year. It's definitely a good sign if they do, but there are much better things to be concerned about (S, OG, OC, and now WR) in 2013.

So, Brian quit charting UMass before we even got to the 4th quarter, where one big time recruit Justice Hayes got the first carries of his Michigan career. I don't think enough attention has been paid to those carries, be they with backups in the game or not. A guy's first carries in Michigan Stadium deserve a little review, so I thought I'd try to UFR some of his plays

I don't have a full game video, only highlights, so I don't have all the information, but I can do a simple review. Unfortunately, the highlights only have two plays with him in it. If others have better insight, please share it. I'm very much an amature.

Play 1

Set: Angle too tight, but it looks like a Shotgun Split, with Bellomy, Gyarmati and Hayes all pretty much on the same line, 3 Wide.

Play: Zone Read? Not sure if this is actual read or not, but while the others appear to be run blocking, Gunderson looks like he went to a pass block, so maybe?

Player: Bellomy

Result: 9 yards

Players: Mateus - Burzynski - Miller - Glasgow - Gunderson

Gyarmati - Bellomy - Hayes

Glasgow pulls at the snap, taking off playside. Gunderson's man takes a wide circle around him, and Gunderson seems momentarily confused about who to block, first looking towards center, then back outside. He eventually gets in the way of the SDE who wasn't going to get to the mesh point in time anyway. Miller(+1) gets into his man and shoves him off the line, while Mateus (+1) and Burzynski(+1) double the other DT and take him well out of the play. Glasgow has pulled quickly (+1), while he, Gyarmati, Hayes AND Bellomy all take off playside.

The WDE crashes, but then squares up to take a block from Glasgow, who angles past him. He then turns to deal with a block from Gyarmati, who is headed behind him. Finally, he looks towards the Bellomy-Hayes mesh, his indecision making it impossible for him to get either. he chooses the wrong guy anyway. (-1, that guy. If you're gonna go with a guy, get there fast. If you're gonna hesitate, at least pick the right guy).

Bellomy sells it on the hand off, and Hayes follows Gyarmati behind the WDE while Bellomy follows Glasgow inside. I love how hard Hayes sells this, and the whole play side of the field follows him out. Beautiful fake. I'll +1 him on it.

Gyarmati gets out on the LB (I think. Can't see it, but he's got a block on someone), Miller loses his man but delayed him juuuust long enough, and Mateus & Bryant have crushed their donkey so hard that 5 yards upfield, Glasgow is still looking for someone to block. Bellomy hits a big time hole (+1). Glasgow finally finds a WLB to block, and the SLB and Safety combine to bring down Bellomy at the one.

- Seems like everybody did their jobs here, though I'd like to see Gunderson be more decisive. Not sure if it was the combo block that delayed the LB's, having to go out around it, or an RPS with them dropping to pass coverage. Curse you, highlight angles!

Play 2

Set: I-form, 2 TE Set.

Play: MANBALL

Player: Hayes

Result: 1 Yard, TD

Players: Same as before, with Kwiatkowski and Paskorz in at TE.

Solid blocking all along the line. Kwiatkowski, Burzynski and Glasgow get no push. Burzynski, Glasgow, Mateus/Paskorz and Kwiatkowski get linemen while Miller, Gunderson and Gyarmati get LB's. Miller(+1) and Gunderson(+1) have both gotten fantastic blocks, which is a shame, because Burzynski(-1) and Glasgow(-1) allow their men to roll together and completely fill what should be a massive middle hole while a safety fills the left side hole. This play was going right, so it's not a big deal, but this is goal line. EVERYBODY should go backwards into the endzone.

Gyarmati (+2) gets out on his LB and brings a safety along with him(!) and a sizeable hole opens right that Hayes hits with authority. The safety and guard both get a hand on Hayes, but not till after he's crossed the plane. Touchdown!

Justice Hayes is at it again. He says Thomas will make his decision on the 31st. Is this Lawrence Thomas he refers to? Because I thought he was solid to MSU. If we can pick this guy up that would be huge and a big smack in the face to MSU

We might as well get this post up today since the list is growing by the minute it seems. If anyone had concerns about the new coaching staff and their recruiting ability, they're probably not asking anymore. Brady Hoke seems like he's in 10 different places at once, and the buzz they've started to create in a short amount of time has been outstanding. Here's a look at the visitors list so far for this weekend. Remember this list will continue to grow, and could shrink so check back.

Commit RB Justice Hayes (4 Star, 5'10", 175 lbs)- Justice being on campus this weekend will help with recruiting. He's been talking up Michigan to quite a few recruits now.

DB Stefan McClure (4 Star, 5'11", 170 lbs)- Defensive back out of California. Has a good relationship with Hoke from being at SDSU. I think Michigan has a real shot with Stefan.

OL Tony Posada (3 Star, 6'5", 315 lbs)- The coaches were out to Florida this week to see Tony, and I think this visit will be his last. He should be firm to Michigan again.

LB Leilon Willingham (4 Star, 6'3", 230 lbs)- I spoke to Leilon's coach today, and it looks like this visit is happening. Willingham is committed to Texas A&M and was supposed to visit the Aggies this weekend. If he cancelled that trip to visit Michigan then that's a pretty strong statement.

I don't normally do this, but I'm bored, and I figure that when the MGoCommunity stacks the CC against a small recruiting update, they'll consistently take the latter. Don't get me wrong, you can read the whole thing in a Cris Carter accent if you want.

First and foremost, according to Razorbacktalk.com (but mostly Tom's tweet), Dr. P (Fl) S Roderick Ryles has decommited from Arkansas. He's presumably coming up with the big pack of Dr. P kids sometime in January, and was recruited (and offered) fairly heavily in early October. You can probably expect more from Tom tomorrow/sometime soon. Recruitment Rankings (to be given the cold shoulder):

I wonder if meyer stepping down really have an effect on dee hart staying at home (michigan) we need you bro :)

Finally, for any super-optimists out there (you know, the type still waiting for Lawrence Thomas to decommit from MSU), CA WR George Farmer committed to USC. Before anyone asks, no, we never really had a chance with him.

Just a few bits that aren't worthy of their own thread, but might when you string em' together.