Manchester City vs West Ham prediction: Manchester City 2-1 West Ham

Manchester City come into this match, against West Ham, hot on the heels of league leaders, Liverpool. They sit just 1-point behind them having clawed back 6 points since the start of 2019.

They will also be in a buoyant mood following their Carabao Cup win, on penalties, against Chelsea on Sunday. However, at what cost?

Arguably their two most important defensive players this season, Aymeric Laporte and Fernandinho, were forced off through injury. City fans will not have fond memories of Fernandinho’s previous spell out of the side. The only two games he hasn’t started for them in the league this season, were the defeats to Crystal Palace and Leicester City.

Meanwhile, West Ham come into the game with ambitions of finishing in the top 7. With that, would likely come Europa League football next season for the Hammers. They are currently 4 points behind 7th placed Watford, who themselves travel to Anfield to face Liverpool on Wednesday.

Manchester City vs West Ham: Who will win?

LONDON, ENGLAND – JANUARY 05: Samir Nasri of West Ham United runs with the ball during the FA Cup Third Round match between West Ham United and Birmingham City at The London Stadium on January 5, 2019 in London, United Kingdom. (Photo by Alex Morton/Getty Images)

Manchester City have the best home record in the Premier League having won 13 of their 14 league matches here this season. They are huge 1/6 favourites to keep it going with another win here.

Just 2 of West Ham’s 17 visits here have ended in a stalemate. You can get big odds of 8/1 on another here, should you feel a draw is overdue in this fixture.

West Ham’s last victory at the Etihad came 3 seasons back. Goals from Victor Moses and Diafra Sakho securing a 1-2 win to take back to London. They are massive 18/1 outsiders to make a shock repeat of that result to win here once again.

Manchester City vs West Ham: Who will score?

Bar chart showing the top goalscorers of both clubs filtered on total goals scored (Orange Bar). Expected Goals per 90 (Charcoal) and Goals per 90 (Silver) are also shown. Click to Expand.

David Silva has scored 6 goals against West Ham in 14 appearances; more than against any other club in his career. He only has 1 goal in his last 18 games for City though; none in his last 12. Can he break his duck against a familiar foe? He is 9/1 to be first scorer here, or 11/5 to score at any time.

Sergio Agüero is City’s top league goal scorer this season, with 17 goals. Despite not scoring in the Carabao Cup final, he looks absolutely on fire at the moment. He has 6 goals in his last 3 Premier League starts. He is 1/2 to score here on Wednesday; 13/5 as first scorer.

Marko Arnautovic hasn’t scored for West Ham since his ‘will he, won’t he’ January transfer saga with Guangzhou. Despite this, he is the favourite to score in West Ham colours on Wednesday at 7/2. Or 14/1 at any time.

Manchester City vs West Ham: Match preview

Graph showing the 5-game rolling average of Expected Goal Difference (xGD) for Manchester City (Sky Blue). Click to expand.

The above graph is built using an Expected Goals model. In this instance, it is looking at the difference between Expected Goals For (xG) and Expected Goals Against (xGA) to give us the Difference (xGD).

This is used as a performance indicator given the low scoring nature of football; a way to look at the value of changes being created and given up by each team.

As you can see for City, the graph for their home performances this season paint a clear picture of decline. However, this is somewhat misleading. Essentially the graph is saying that City were blowing sides away at home all season. They were usually 3 or more goals better than the sides they faced. More recently though, they are merely 1 to 2 goals better than sides they face.

They key thing to take from this perhaps, is that in the first half of the season, sides would come to the Etihad with no chance at all. Now, they arrive with a very slim chance. For some sides, like Crystal Palace who won here 3-2, that might be enough.

Manchester City vs West Ham: An Iron Deficiency?

Graph showing the 5-game rolling average of Expected Goal Difference (xGD) for West Ham (Purple). Click to expand.

West Ham’s graph of their away performances tells us a very different story. How they started out as the worst side in the league, getting thrashed 4-0 on the opening day of the season at Anfield.

However, as the new players adapted to a new league, country and culture, not to mention everyone adapting to Pellegrini and his tactics, things improved. They peaked somewhere around November-December.

Since then, a January window of uncertainty over their star striker coupled with the poor form of Chicharito and Lucas Perez who tried to replace his goals, and they have started to slip back again.

This leaves all signs pointing to a comfortable home win for Manchester City. Although, perhaps City’s injury crisis will not make it as comfortable as the Expected Goals model is suggesting.

Manchester City team news vs West Ham

MANCHESTER, ENGLAND – NOVEMBER 04: Josep Guardiola, Manager of Manchester City speaks with Fernandinho of Manchester City during the Premier League match between Manchester City and Southampton FC at Etihad Stadium on November 4, 2018 in Manchester, United Kingdom. (Photo by Clive Brunskill/Getty Images)

Sunday’s Carabao Cup victory may have come at a high cost to City. Both Aymeric Laporte and Fernandinho were forced off with injuries.

With Stones still missing due to a groin injury, Pep Guardiola’s defensive options seem limited to the same changes he made at Sunday; Vincent Kompany and Danilo replacing them.

Guardiola will also rotate many of his squad who played over 2 hours of football as the final went all the way to penalties.

Riyad Mahrez and Leroy Sane are therefore expected to replace Raheem Sterling and Bernardo Silva respectively. Likewise, Ilkay Gundogan will likely replace one of Kevin De Bruyne or David Silva in the starting line-up.

Benjamin Mendy is fit and available again, but is likely to be eased back in.

West Ham team news vs Manchester City

LONDON, ENGLAND – JANUARY 05: Marko Arnautovic of West Ham United argues with Manuel Pellegrini, Manager of West Ham United after being substitute during the FA Cup Third Round match between West Ham United and Birmingham City at The London Stadium on January 5, 2019 in London, United Kingdom. (Photo by Julian Finney/Getty Images)

Manuel Lanzini made his return at the weekend from the ACL injury he picked up last June; his first appearance under Manuel Pellegrini. He is unlikely to start games any time soon as they ease him back into first team football.

Samir Nasri was named in the match-day squad at the weekend for the first time since the 2-0 defeat at Bournemouth on 19th January. Expect him to get some minutes from the bench here against his former club having recovered from his calf injury.

It looks like the game will come too soon for Fabian Balbuena, who is nearing a return from the knee injury that has kept him out since before Christmas.

Marko Arnautovic has yet to start for West Ham this month due to a foot injury. He created a goal off the bench at the weekend though and looks likely to be promoted to the starting XI again here.

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