You take a guy fresh off a boat — let’s call him Sailor — and Sailor’s boat left a country that didn’t have baseball. After explaining what baseball is, you tell Sailor that one baseball team, the Yankees, throws dollars at free agents. After a lengthy explanation that dollars are our currency and why presidents are on low denominations and a non-president is on the hundred and what the hell a free agent is, you then list the top free agent bats for this year: Robinson Cano, Jacoby Ellsbury, Shin-Soo Choo and Carlos Beltran. You then ask Sailor which of those guys the Yankees will get. He’ll probably say one of the first couple of players. Or maybe he’ll say Robinson or Cano Jacoby because he won’t know their names and confuse where commas are when spoken. It’s such an obvious Yankee move to get Ellsbury that even Sailor figured it out. It reeks of throwing money at the team. Or maybe the Yankees just figured if they can’t work with Jay-Z, they’ll work with J-E. The short porch in right won’t hurt Ellsbury. What could hurt him is just about everything else that seems to hurt him every other year. Since 2009, his games played has been 153, 18, 158, 74 and 134. Saberhagenmetricans shudder at the thought of drafting Ellsbury following a big year. I’m with them. I won’t be drafting him anywhere, especially not after he gets bumped up in drafts from his newly adjusted Yankee tax. For 2014, I’ll give him the line of 98/13/57/.279/32. Anyway, here’s some more offseason moves for 2014 fantasy baseball:

Dexter Fowler – “When hitters are naughty and don’t steal 40-effin’ bases when they’re capable, Santa sends them to the Astros.” That’s Scott Boras explaining Fowler’s trade to the Astros for Jordan Lyles and Brandon Barnes (more on them in a second; I’m kidding, I’m not going to talk about them ever again.) We all know that if you play The Best Little Whorehouse in Texas’s DVD commentary backwards, it says, “Any player traded to the Astros will immediately lose fantasy value.” Without the community outreach program in Colorado, Coors Aids Hitters, I don’t think Fowler is going to top his 12 homers from last year, especially after he hit all of four after May 1st. He could steal 45 bases. The pregunta is will he? I doubt it, but it won’t hurt being on a team that has nothing to lose (which is an optimist’s “nothing to play for”). For 2014, I’ll give Fowler a line of 74/10/42/.267/22.

Justin Morneau – The Rockies just can’t put anything worthwhile at 1st base. It would’ve been too easily to just put Cuddyer at first to save him from potential injuries. Instead, they went with The Concusstador. When Morneau heard he was going to be playing in Colorado, he said he was sad to leave Minnesota. When told he had left Minnesota already and he was now in Pittsburgh, he blinked. Twice. For 2014, I’ll give Morneau the line of 67/22/78/.265.

Phil Hughes – To the Twins. A change of scenery could do him well. It would be even better if he were going to be pitching in Kyrgyzstan where the hitters are goats with fly swatters taped to their leg. Hughes in the American League is still only going to get us so far. It is better that he’s out of New York. That stadium wasn’t doing him any favors. He had more gopher balls than a spay & neutering doctor who specializes in rodents and was on a very special Hoarders. Hughes has been terrific in Hubert H. Homerfree Retrodome, but that was against a Twins team that would be improved with a few fly-swatting goats playing on the left side of the infield. Plouffe goes the insult! In 375 2/3 IP, he had a 4.10 ERA in away games. That sounds about right. He’ll need to get lucky to beat that by a lot. In 2014, I’ll give him the line of 8-12/4.01/1.25/160.

Ricky Nolasco – Also signed by the Twins. I have a prediction that won’t come true. The Twins and Marlins will be folded into each other to make the Mwins or Tarlins, and they still won’t win their new division, losing to their main rival, the Padtros. What does this have to do with Nolasco? Not a whole lot, but goats with fly swatters had something to do with something? Nolasco is very similar to Hughes, minus the home runs, which is kinda like saying vanilla is similar to chocolate minus the taste. Nolasco and Hughes have similar K and walk rates, but Nolasco keeps the ball in the park, which shaves about a quarter of a run off his ERA. In AL-Only leagues, Nolasco is the kind of guy that could make a huge difference at the end of your draft. In mixed leagues, he’s a streamer. I’ll give him the line of 10-10/3.86/1.24/155

Scott Kazmir – Signs with the A’s. Those sneaky bastards. A guy that can be an ace for about two-thirds of a season and then take a DL siesta is solid for real baseball. For our purposes, or porpoises if dolphins are reading, he’s definitely on radars. He could be a 200+ K pitcher with a low-3 ERA. But put ‘could’ in one hand and ‘is’ in the other hand and you have nothing in either hands. They’re words, why would they be in your hand? I imagine Kazmir will be drafted prior to me getting off the fence on him, but if not, I could see grabbing him late. For 2014, I’ll give him the line of 9-7/3.85/1.29/145, but he could be anywhere from a 2.75 ERA, 220 K guy to a 5+ ERA guy who is bumped from the rotation by June.

Jim Johnson – Went to Oakland for Jemile Weeks, who was not the black girl on the Boston: Real World, that was Kameelah. Johnson should take over the closer role in Oakland, which makes him the first marquee closer for the A’s since Rollie Fingers. Bit of an odd move from the A’s since Johnson is far from dominant, no matter what his save total says. He’s like a robot closer sent here from the future to teach rookie fantasy managers a lesson. That lesson is look at K-rates instead of saves. I’ve never been a fan of Johnson (no homo), but SAGNOF is SAGNOF is SAGNOF.

Doug Fister – Traded to the Nats. That gives Fister’s value a fighting chance. *drops mic* In the NL, Fister is a candidate for more punchouts. *jumps up and down on mic* I’m done! Going the other way in the trade was Steve Lombardozzi, who lost every professional wrestling match he ever took part in. Why did the Tigers do this trade? Your guess = my guess. Maybe when Leyland left the team it was like when you have a really bad breakup and you just start doing dopey shizz like listening to Peabo Bryson and crying at phone commercials. FISTER! (doesn’t his name look like it should be capped with an exclamation mark? It’s not a last name; it’s a command) walks no one. Like, fo’really. Last year, FISTER!’s walk rate was under 2. To be an ace, a guy with an under 2 walk rate only needs an 8 K-rate. FISTER! doesn’t have that though. He’s flirted with it. In 2012, his K-rate was 7.63. If he can do that with a spectacular walk rate, he could be a solid number two. I love this move for FISTER! and will give him the line of 13-9/3.33/1.22/164.

Joe Nathan – Signed with the Tigers for $20 million. To think, your folks told you to come in from playing baseball so you could do your homework. Joke’s on you Jack. Nathan should be fine if he can stay healthy, but he’s due for a season-ending injury in May, so here’s to the Tigers pen being a mess.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia – Signed by the Marlins. But what about… Who was the Marlins catcher before this? Oh, that’s right. Rob Kardashian. Wait, that’s not right. Jerry Mathis? Jeff Brantly? He announces games from behind home? Any the hoo! Saltymochachino will now be catching games in South Florida. If that doesn’t signal to you that Loria is getting serious about making this team competitive, I don’t know what will. Maybe getting the RealDoll to play 2nd base. Perhaps Loria saw the ‘No Pepper Games Allowed’ behind home plate and thought he had the perfect complement for that and got Salty. I imagine Salty will do pretty much the same thing in Florida as he’s done most of his career. Hit some homers and a lousy average. I’ll give him the projections of 56/16/63/.241/3.

A.J. Pierzynski – “Yay…Dah!” That’s the Red Sox equipment manager after learning he didn’t need to sew Saltalamacchia on the back of a jersey only to learn seconds later Pierzynski was signing in Boston. You get the sense that major league teams are taking my fantasy advice and punting catcher? A.J. Pollock, as he’s called in Arizona, will be fine for around league average on the Red Sox. I’ll give him the projections of 66/15/75/.269

Seth Smith – Traded to the Padreth for Luke Gregerthon. The Lisper’s Nightmare is a platoon player no matter where he plays, unless he’s battling a fly-swatting goat in Kyrgyzstan, but that’s doubtful since the number three ailment of the Kyrgyzstan people is lisping (behind diabetes and ugly).

Ryan Hanigan – To the Rays, which is whatevs, but this makes room for Devin Mesoraco to start on the Reds and to that I say, “Rawr,” which is dinosaur for “I love you.” Some catcher is going to come out of nowhere to be a top five option and my money is on Mesoraco, though my money does have a picture of Alfred E. Neuman on it.

Heath Bell – Traded to the Rays and now he’ll be in line to close at least 25 games with the last twenty-two or so being of the “Oh, God, why do I own Heath Bell on my fantasy team?” variety. The Rays have had a lot of luck with junkie closers, but Heath Bell will put their pedal to the mettle or whatever that cliche is. It’s like that Crocodile Dundee line, “That’s not a crappy closer….THIS is a crappy closer!” The only chance Bell has at being solid is if you’re talking to a 3-year-old and you’re using the word solid to indicate poop firmness.

Craig Gentry – Traded to the A’s for Michael Choice, who is neither prime nor select. Craig Gentry, who only sounds like a former member of the The Fabulous Freebirds, will be used in a platoon role. Soon, Billy Beane is just going to platoon everything. “Bob Melvin, take a seat, we need a better hitting manager today. Chili Davis, grab a lineup card, you’re in.” Or Beane at 7-11, “Slurpee and Slim Jim, you’re out today. I’m going with the Big Gulp and a cylindrical hamburger.” Or Beane in the bathroom, “Toilet paper, you’re out today. I’m going with a wet paper towel.”

One of your best! And I like them all. On Heath Bell, I kind of like his chances the more I look at his peripherals and motivation. He’ll be 37 at the end of the 2014 season and looking for a two year deal to boost his bank account and ride into the sunset on. His underlying stats say he’s still shoving a fastball that’s a tad over 93 mph on avg., just like it has been for several years. Then, looking at the 2nd half of last year he nearly doubles his K/BB rate. Homeruns are an issue, but changing home parks in this case should do him some good in that regard. I’m not getting too crazy here, but a 3,6o/1.22/70K/33 save season seems within reason. SAGNOF is SAGNOF is SAGNOF.

I’ll take advice given by you and sky about punting catcher, and wait and grab one of those guys listed above later in the draft. I overpay every year for a name and always get dissatisfaction from their output.

All the early player movement got me excited about fantasy baseball yesterday. That’s a good thing, but usually I hold out until after Christmas. So that’s going to make this off-season last forever.

In the Johnson blurb you forgot about a fella by the name of Dennis Eckersley.

I’m going all in on Ells. I could see a 20-50 season and a .300 average. Remember 2011 when Ian Kinsler had the injury prone label? Got him at a draft discount? And he went out and gave you 723 PAs and a 30-30 season? You can’t predict non-chronic injuries. Ells should be a top 5 pick this year. He’s going to wear out that short stoop down the right field line.

You can take park factors for what they are worth. Always some controversy around how they are compiled but…

According to baseball monster, which actually has park factor splits Yankee Stadium is the 3rd best park for left handed hitters to hit home runs and Boston is the 3rd worst. Anecdotally that seems right and to conform to the dimensions and how we see those parks play.

From 2009 to 2012, Ellsbury averaged 33.5 FB% last year he dipped to a career low 28.2%. 33.5% is probably around league average. 28.2% was 114th among 140 qualified hitters last year. Often the first year after a major injury you’ll see changes in batted ball profile that then regress closer to career rates in subsequent years. The fact that he’s shown the ability to drive the ball in the past and hit more fly balls suggests that there’s a decent chance he deposits a few into the first row next year.

@OaktownSteve: re: Rollie — Just grabbed an old one for exaggeration…Wasn’t Foulke a marquee name when he was there? Maybe he became one after the A’s let him go, I forget… It’s hard to argue with that about Ells because he’s completely capable of it… But he’s been capable of it every year and has only done it once… In the 2nd round (where I’m guessing you’ll need to move on him), I don’t see the gamble…

It’s a lot easier to justify in RCL with the shallowness and the daily streaming option. There’s a also a small chance that if Gardner has a good year hitting 9th, Ells has a chance to add some RBIs. I’ll have to think about it though. Wake Up might be right that I’m overestimating the increase in HRs. Offensively there are going to be so few guys I look a this year as locks for 1st round production, I think the search for upside in hitters creeps into the 2nd round and even the 1st.

You really have a good sense of humor. Seriously “Ha Ha” funny. It’s hard to ever question Beane since he is probably better at his job than I would be, but the only 3 year deal I would give Kazmir is a car lease. My guess is he will have one big year, only it will be divided up into the three years. Finally for my NY Mets, who act like they are the Omaha Storm Chasers. Sign Robbie Cano. Don’t give Grandy 65-75m dollars, when you have a chance to pick up the best all around second baseman in baseball. An elite player on every level, besides hustling. Put Cano and Wright back to back for the next 5 years, and with the starting pitching they should have, they could be somebody…. Finally a movie suggestion. Try to see Nebraska. Its not easy to find, but well worth it.

It’s too early in December for me to truly give a monkey’s uncle about FBB…with football play-offs and basketball in full stride, however…

“When Morneau heard he was going to be playing in Colorado, he said he was sad to leave Minnesota. When told he had left Minnesota already and he was now in Pittsburgh, he blinked. Twice.” = Hillarious

last night I asked about my opp’s
a.escobar (.4 mil, minimum)
round 3 and 4 of this year’s draft (don’t know what part of round yet)
for my
prado (4.57 mil)
round 5 2015
you said escobar. was that with or without the part I thought to add, which was
my very expensive dempster (14 mil) for opp’s medlen (.4 mil, league minimum). I figured if medlen has starting gig this is good trade for me. I do need to free budget money. If you actually think escobar is simply better player the medlen part isn’t important. Prado does qualify at EVERY non-catcher slot in this league (MI/CI/OF), however, I could use escobar’s steals, as other than Leonys I have pretty much none. In this league our only hitter positions are MI/CI/OF/C. dynasty with 100 million budgets and I have around 10 left.

Agree with several, Grey is BAAAACCCKKK! Great, hillarious writeup man. I feel like I saw “Rawr,” which is dinosaur for “I love you.” on a snorg T-shirt. Anyway, thats my TRUM report! Thanks for the laughs!

It’ll be the Twarlins who’ll have to battle it out with the Twihards for who has the worst overall team. Twihards already have the worst mascot with Kristen Stewart.

I like the Fowler move. Houston loved to run last year, can’t see them changing their minds with this trade. Maybe sit him against lefties but a 35-40 steal campaign wouldn’t surprise me as long as he stays healthy.

Certainly, I agree. Which reminds me of my deep league SS obsession for next year: Jonathan Villar. Only 22. If he can improve his contact rates and sneak his OBP closer to .340, he’s gonna be a steal where he’ll most likely go. Think it’ll be a running team for the most part. Why am I obsessed with players on bad teams? I swear I fall in love with every Astro every year. Curse you Brett Wallace!

I hear ya on Villar, I will be sure to write a sleeper post about him and not credit you… The Astros aren’t terrible offensively, they’re no Padres or Marlins, but they do have terrible contact rates in general… They’re the team that scores 7 runs with 17 Ks…

@Grey: I expect nothing less of course. But maybe you could do the cool thing and have the letters down the left margin spell out ‘Sky Is Awesome And Suggested This Guy’ just so I know that you care.

Yeah, they’re the team that would score 20 one night and 2 the next, striking out 15 times in each game. Definitely not a team that is easy to evaluate on a day to day basis but enough offense there to not shy away from it. Fowler doesn’t fit that bill (mini-pun?). I wonder because of his OBP skills if they’ll actually put him 2nd in the lineup behind Villar or one of their other speedster types. Jesus, it’s only December and I’m thinking about the Astros lineup. This isn’t right.

Milwaukee just dealt Aoki to KC for Will Smith. It’s definitely one of those deals that’s likely to fly under the radar, but it does open up a starting spot in LF (Braun is said to be moving to RF) for Khris Davis. I like him a lot as a sleeper next year.

I see the Ellsbury deal as a lateral move for his fantasy value. Maybe 5-6 more bombs in Yankee Stadium, but could see a slight dip in BA. A high percentage of left-handed hitters get pull happy when they see that short right field porch, and pitchers bust them inside off the plate or away, which leads to more infield flys and lazy flys to left. It’ll be interesting to see if he maintains the same approach that earned him the mega deal.

On the Royals side, they seem to not want to hit any home runs. They had 2 from Dyson, 4 from Alcides, 1 from Getz, 0 from Bonifacio, 2 from Eliot Johnson, 5 from David Lough, and so on and now they add a guy who hit 8 in a full season in a much better hitters park. They were last by a very wide margin in the AL in HRs hit last year. They can’t run Aoki and a platoon of the guys they already have out there in the OF and expect to score runs. Their full time DH hit 15. I know they want to sign Beltran. They sure could use a Wil Myers type player.

I think they’ll run a ton. If Bonifacio can hold down 2b, he ran at 64 SB pace in his time in KC, so a full season of him alone adds potential. Even if they want to play small ball, I still think they need another bat.

@Grey: I can see him producing like a #3 OF who could be drafted as a #5. He’s just entered his prime power years (’14 will be his age-26 season), hasn’t had an ISO below .212 in any year of his career, hit 11 HRs in the majors in just over a third of a season last year, and will play half of his games in one of the best hitters’ parks in baseball. Looks like a low risk/high reward type of player for where he’s likely to be available in drafts.

@OaktownSteve: Ha! I finished the season with Krush Davis on my team and wasn’t planning on keeping him for next season…BUT, now I’m wondering if I should keep him over George Springer… What say you Grey and friends?

Dombrowski is getting killed over the Fielder and Fister deals, but I think he has a specific endgame in mind. Just a gut feeling, but I could see him making a strong play for Cano and moving Kinsler to LF. That would give Detroit that left-handed power bat to replace Prince and fill their hole in LF. It would also complete the offseason transformation of their infield defense from Fielder/Infante/Peralta/Cabrera to Cabrera/Cano/Iglesias/?. Massive upgrade regardless of who ends up at 3B.

I see the Fielder deal because he’s shown diminishing returns and they got his contract off the books. The Fister deal is a real headscratcher on two levels. One, why trade him in the first place and two, assuming you have a bigger picture in mind of which this was a piece, there doesn’t seem to be any reason why he shouldn’t gotten more for Fister. Seems like he just gave him up so cheaply.

There’s no reason not to consider Detroit as a possible home for Cano if only because they’ve been players in the big contract, impact bat market and their owner definitely wants to win (as opposed to ownership that pays closer attention to the bottom line). I know Seattle wants to sign him, but that’s going to be a tough sell to Cano unless they severely over pay just because of the park and the climate. I’m not sure if you can write off the Yankees just because they signed Ells. I think they’ll still make a very good offer. I think Boston has decided to bow out of the big long term contract game having won a WS with their band of irregulars. It’s also possible that Texas’ agenda in clearing Kinsler was to go after Cano. They dodged a bullet with Hamilton but they had money earmarked for him that they haven’t entirely spent.

@OaktownSteve: I seem to be one of the few people who thinks that the Fielder/Kinsler deal is a win for Detroit due to the payroll flexibility that it created for them down the line (although I can see it working out for the Rangers too). The Fister deal is a bit tougher to judge, but they seemed hellbent on moving either him or Porcello to create a rotation spot for Smyly. Dombrowski probably just took the best offer that he received. We’ll have to wait and see how the prospects turn out from that deal.

As far as Cano goes, I think it’s down to the Yankees, Tigers, Rangers, and Mariners. If he’s purely looking for a money grab, he could wind up in Seattle. I don’t see that happening though. The Rangers will be flush with money from their monster TV deal by ’15, so they could make a play. The Yankees just gave out $238 million (or thereabouts) to Ellsbury and McCann, and still need to add two SPs and a closer. If they want to stay under the luxury tax threshold, I don’t see him returning. The Tigers are in win-now mode, and just cleared some payroll with their recent deals. I could see Cano ending up there.

Thoughts on Rosenthal for next season? We have added two additional keeper spots and it might come down to Gray and Leonys/Rosenthal. I heard that he wants to start, but if he’s the closer he could provide tremendous value.

The math just dictates that as the totals shrink and so do the margins. It’s going to be an interesting roster mix. If you take low average boppers and stream, you’re basically punting average but will be very well positioned in HR, RBI, R. If you mix in some higher average lower power guys then you could make up some of the distance in the counters by streaming and compete in average but won’t be as dominant in the counters. I learned a lot about twisting nobs in the RCL last year by virtue of a poor draft. Hope to apply some of that next year.

All this discussion makes me really excited(it’s coming) and depressed(lack of 30+ power) for the start of baseball. Is there a real world glossary term for this bi-polar thing I got going on over here?

@Grey: Oh me neither, I think there is a lot of similar bats floating out there and it’s grabbing the right ones at the right time. Last year was an odd draft everywhere I went. I do know this, those that waited on arms because of the perceived depth got screwed. I might be drafting me a Kershaw this year

Grey
I’ve been taking a break from the baseball scene until the meetings, lad to be back missed ya, HA! Sky does a good job, but Fantasy Football is like very un-fulfilling and basketball is an absolute waste ( I got talked in to joining Basketball this year. I’m 5-0,( but the strategy is to make sure you have the most guys in the line up each night), but I’m sure you know that. Anyways thanks for cheering me up!