Pathways to 100 Percent Renewable Energy

Reaching the goal of getting 100 percent of the world's energy from renewable resources is technically and economically feasible today. The challenges lie in the realms of public policy and political will, as well as in finance, market development, and business development.

That was the message delivered by numerous distinguished energy experts in San Francisco on April 16th at Pathways to 100 Percent Renewable Energy, the first international conference specifically focused on accelerating the transition to 100 percent renewable energy.

Citing a number of recent authoritative energy studies, Dr. Dave Renne, President of the International Solar Energy Society said all the studies agree that there are no technical barriers to getting 100 percent of our energy from renewable resources. Their technical potential, he said, “far exceeds even our wildest future (demand) projections.”

Some renewable technologies in themselves are sufficient to supply 100 percent of the world’s energy demand by themselves, though of course this would not be an optimal global energy solution. Professor Alexa Lutzenberger from the University of Leuphana, Germany noted that the world could meet 100 percent of its energy needs just from biomass fuels and biogas.

This versatile fuel can be used to produce power, or power and heat in a combined heat and power plant. It can also be used to produce biodiesel or other fuels, such as biomethane and bioethanol. When cleaned, biogas can utilize the world’s vast natural gas pipeline infrastructure.

Germany now has some 8,000 mostly small agricultural biogas plants which afford farmers the opportunity to become energy independent and enjoy relatively stable, reasonably priced energy.

Jacobson said that 2.5-3 million people die prematurely from fossil fuel air pollution worldwide each year and that cumulativly, 100 million people have perished from air pollution over the past 100 years.

He found that by producing 100 percent of the planet’s energy from a mix of wind, concentrating solar, geothermal, tidal power, photovoltaics, wave power, and hydroelectricity, air pollution deaths would be eliminated along with the emission of climate-disturbing greenhouse gases generated from fossil fuels.

Global energy use would also decline sharply. Just by replacing the fuels in the global energy mix with electricity, Jacobson found that total energy demand would decline 32 percent by 2030, even without accounting for energy efficiency measures that would also be adopted.

In the U.S., the study found that a similar shift to electricity and electrolytic hydrogen would cut primary energy demand by 37 percent, also before other efficiency measures. The switch would reduce California’s energy demand by 44 percent, largely as a result of converting the transportation sector to more efficient electric propulsion.

Jacobson did not recommend nuclear power, coal with carbon capture, natural gas, or biofuels that involve combustion and may release air pollutants and carbon dioxide.

Under the plan’s assumptions, electricity costs would fall compared with fossil fuel power and more new jobs would be created than lost in the energy transition. Global energy security and price stability would both be vastly enhanced and the renewable facilities needed would require only 0.4% of the world’s land.

New York

Jacobson also reported on a new Stanford University study he led recently which contends that it would be technically and economically feasible for New York State to get all its energy from renewable sources by 2030. RenewableEnergyWorld.com reported on that study here and there is an active discussion following the article. Jacobson said that, if implemented successfully, the plan would save money, energy, and create jobs while reducing the health impacts and costs of air pollution in New York.

Renewables in California

Also at the conference, Stephen Berberich, President and CEO of the California Independent System Operator Corp. said that today’s power industry won’t be recognizable by 2050. The vast majority of the state’s energy demand will by then be met by renewable energy, and the utility industry will be completely transformed.

Many homes will be effectively off the grid, doing their own generation, and using their own energy storage systems. Berberich expects that the largest power consuming sector in the California economy in 2050 will likely be the state’s transportation fleet, which by then will be electrified to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions.

Berberich said that the move to renewables will be driven by economic imperatives, the development of new technology, and concern over climate change. “The costs of distributed technologies are falling dramatically.”

Berberich himself said he pays about 35 cents per kilowatt-hour for electricity at his home in the PG&E service territory but that he can get a solar array for 20 cents a kilowatt-hour. “Why wouldn’t I do that?” he asked.

Customers in the future will enjoy transparent pricing and, with the help of online applications and advanced networking devices, “will be able to see, shape, and control their energy usage,” he said.

During the transition to a renewable energy powered economy, Berberich cautioned that ramping renewables up too quickly could drive costs up and provoke a backlash. “If a rate bomb goes off, there’s going to be a hue and cry,” he warned. Likewise, problems with system reliability would also undermine progress toward 100 percent renewable energy.

Dr. Eric Martinot, senior research director at the Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies provided the conference with a summary of the Renewables Global Futures Report produced by REN21, a global, multi-stakeholder network of experts from many sectors of society, seeking to accelerate the global transition to renewable energy.

Based on the opinions of 170 leading experts and 50 energy scenarios, the report forecasts rapid increases in global investment in renewable energy supply, accompanied by continued declines in cost and advances in technology. Global investment in renewable energy was $260 billion in 2011 and, according to the report, may reach $400-500 billion by 2020.

While recognizing that challenges remain in integrating renewable energy into utility power grids, buildings, transport, and industries, the report concludes that the primary challenges, “relate to practices, policies, institutions, business models, finance,” and other factors.

The report takes note of a growing number of regions, cities, towns, and communities that are planning to eventually become 100 percent reliant on renewable energy. Rather than expecting renewables just to fit within modestly restructured existing energy systems, it envisions the co-evolution of renewable technologies over time into profoundly transformed new energy systems.

More information about the Pathways to 100 Percent Renewable Energy conference and its sponsor, the Renewables 100 Policy Institute, can be found at www.go100percent.org. Organizers are planning to post videos of the conference on the website in the near future.

19 Comments

Yes, new technologies are being hiding form the American people. Like 100% clean renewable energy system that can make all the electricity you need. Install it in an electric car and you can drive nonstop or how about install it in your house to power every thing. Set it up in the middle of no were and power what every you need. But we can't have that, can we?! No! We have to think of all the poor rich people who make a living off of all the millions of people who pay for electricity, gasoline and so on. And we have to think of the money the government gets in taxes. That would be a very bad thing for the 300 million Americans and there family to do that to them. 100% clean renewable energy system that could help stop greenhouse gases and global warming. We like having millions of Americans with out electricity for weeks because of super storm. Like, I don’t know. How about super storm Storm Sandy for one! 100% clean renewable energy system is very real! Believe me, I know.

ANONYMOUS
June 14, 2013

I would like to know why everyone talks about a 100% clean renewable energy system that could help stop greenhouse gases and global warming. But when you say you know of away to make a 100% clean renewable energy system, no one believe you. Why is that?

ANONYMOUS
May 9, 2013

This is a very encouraging conference report. Let us hope the political-will needed to accomplish this gathers momentum.

ANONYMOUS
May 9, 2013

This is a very encouraging conference report. Let us hope the political-will needed to accomplish this gathers momentum.

ANONYMOUS
May 9, 2013

"Just by replacing the fuels in the global energy mix with electricity, Jacobson found that total energy demand would decline 32 percent by 2030, even without accounting for energy efficiency measures that would also be adopted."
Just think - if we reduced demand by another 68% we would already well exceed energy demands with renewables!!

Reaching the goal of getting 100 percent of the world's energy from renewable resources is technically and economically feasible today -- John Berger,are you yourself sure of this statement?
According to IEA:
Worldwide renewable electricity generation since 1990 grew an average of 2.8% per year, which is less than the 3% growth seen for total electricity generation. While 19.5% of global electricity in 1990 was produced from renewable sources, this share fell to 19.3% in 2009. This decrease is mainly the result of slow growth of the main renewable source, hydroelectric power, in OECD countries. Achieving the goal of halving global energy?related CO2 emissions by 2050 will require a doubling (from today's levels) of renewable generation by 2020.
How much of world energy consumption and electricity generation is from renewable energy?
EIA estimates that about 10% of world marketed energy consumption is from renewable energy sources (hydropower, biomass, biofuels, wind, geothermal, and solar), with a projection of 14% by 2035.
EIA estimates that about 19% of world electricity generation is from renewable energy, with a projection of nearly 23% in 2035.
In India there is a big push given to Renewables especially Solar and wind. India occupies 5th position in the world in Wind Energy. There is a major programme in Solar under Jawaharlal Nehru Solar Mission. Our Experience shows the Renewables targets and achievements won't match in some cases. When that being the case with country with huge Renewable Energy Programme,is it possible to have 100% Energy from Renewables?
Dr.A.Jagadeesh Nellore(AP),India

It is quite clear, in my opinion, that there is no better alternative for our planet than renewable energy. It will happen sooner than later. Just consider the energy poverty (primitive cook-stoves and kerosene for lighting used by about 3 billion people) which could be easily overcome by adopting micro-solar PV and improved biomass cook-stoves, with competitive / affordable products. Maybe we could focus (in addition) on what is practically feasible in the short run, with relatively modest investments for the benefit of billions of customers at the BOP market. https://www.facebook.com/groups/TEA.ethiopia/

Actually freight travel is the most conducive to renewable energy use if we were willing to incur the investment cost to switch over.

1. Catenary or other electrical rail systems are in use today and some of the grid can be run along the rail lines, panels could be mounted all along the rail right of ways and would likely supply enough power to run even large freight trains. However I suspect with a train run by mostly external electricity you probably could get by with smaller trains.

2. If the solar road stuff works out and you paired it with a system where vehicles pick up their electricity from the roadway then trucks and cars are now covered and you only need to stop for food and fuel and while doing it you can rig the roadway so you can get self-driving cars. Cars and trucks then need only carry enough power to go the distance they need to off the solar roadways.

Now ships, passenger planes and heavy military vehicles are NOT practical by any technology I know even in the labs today for conversion to electricity. Very small one or two person planes are viable, but not practical for passenger travel. Although I seem to remember modern warships could be converted easily if you can find a better energy storage than fossil fuel.

Renewbable energy is very cost efficient .Every year millions of tree are blown down by tornadoes and hurricanes. I have a patent pending on a bioburner that turns wood into usable energy.This burner does not produce any smoke or smell. For more info contact me at aecoopusa@yahoo.com .AECOOPUSA is a LLC

Eric Martinot also stated in his 'Epilogue: Speaking Personally' in the REN21 Report he authored, "As to what "predominantly" means, I would say something like 80-90%. I don't believe that we can reach "100%," as many now advocate, although "100%" is a useful political and social archetype. Rather, I think we need to allow for a modest share of fossil fuels to accompany renewables, particularly those needs that are most difficult to meet with renewables, including freight transport and shipping, high-temperature industrial process heat, airline travel (unless we start using passenger airships again), and some natural gas use in power grids to balance variability."

Altho there was a time where I would hoped to have seen a 100% renewables deployment, now after being in the trenches for a number of years, and having formally studied renewable energy systems technologies and sustainable development, based on a quality of life so many in the west have become accustomed to, thermodynamically, I tend to agree with him that perhaps 80-90% is attainable, and not 100%. Well, not until there is A LOT of improvements in materials science, and IF AND ONLY IF people can give up their carbon-emitting, consumerism-bent lifestyles and incorporate the notion of conservation into their lifestyles. And altho I have am doing my part to keep my carbon footprint well below the average of most of the USA citizenry, we know the expecting no-lo carbon lifestyle changes ain't gonna happen anytime soon...

IF NOT 100% WE AT HARINERGY RENEWABLES BELIEVE THAT A BETTER PART OF THE ENERGY CONSUMED IN RURAL AND REMOTE AREAS CAN BE PROVIDED BY SOME MOST COST EFFECTIVE METHODS.

Harinergy Renewables is pleased to introduce itself as a futuristic thinking research and development unit, working on most cost effective and unbroken grounds in renewable energy. The Patent protected 10KW to 100KW units for the time being are in the same category for decentralised generation and distribution of energy without any dependence on climatic or geographical uncertainties faced by wind and hydro electric systems . It is acclaimed that wind electric energy is the fastest and most cost effective method but we can assure you that our methods of power generation are going to be game changers in renewable energy generation. With some active participation from interested parties these can be big hits in the very near future. We would also like to insert that our R&D is on a breakthrough threshold for adapting our generation units for an altogether new area of power generation on the running water of canals for which we have got a trade mark registered as "Nehrurja®" We hereby request interested parties for participating in this rare breakthrough which can add many GIGAWATTS OF ELECTRIC ENERGY on decentralised generation and distribution basis to the local communities at dirt cheap rates. We would also like to add that since these Generation Systems involve International Patents it may not be possible for us to pen down more about these developments .The units can be ideal power backup for telecom tower operators.

Yes, it is feasible, depending on how we accomplish it. Then the question becomes how do we do that with the minimum disruption and maximum benefit. Some folks want disruption in the hope that the situation will change to their benefit, but more likely the general arrangement of society will change little.

Futura Solar's Sawtooth solar roofing system is intended to fit into the economy on the low profile commercial buildings that seem a fixture in our economy. This system will bring significant amounts of the Sun's 'Utility' into the building, to the business operating beneath that roof. Daylighting, solar thermal (air & water) and PV.

There are a number of ways to get there economically and people can make money getting there . Elon Musk is a bright guy and he is building electric cars and selling solar. He has changed the selling for cars by eliminating the distributor and selling directly. This changes the economics of selling automobiles, enabled by the internet. On the solar side Elon is again creative and not really selling the panels, but getting use of the space on the rooftops and a longterm PPA from the owner for cash flow and the tax breaks and renewable energy credits stay with Elon and his partners. The number of partners and other companies emulating this model is growing. Utilities need to pay attention to this because if they do not make a move into this space following a model very similar to the Solar City model they will be faced with declining revenues and serious financial issues. The days of the big central power plant are numbered and they need to move to a distributed model.
My gift of prophecy is simply examining the numbers closely. Renewables in Germany start with 5% share of the electricity generation in 2003. They grew to 20% in 2012, with an average rate of growth in that time of 17%. The actual % of growth ranged from a low of 3.5% to a high of 35%. My prediction on when Germay will get to > 90% is obtained by assuming that if the next nine years are like the last 9 years for renewables then Germany will be there in 2024. If the growth drops to 8.5% (half of what it has been for the last 9 years then it will take until 2032.
The technology supporting growth in solar, LED lighting, computer software for managing the GRID, heat pumps for efficient heating and cooling, battery energy density and lifetime are all following trends that lead me to believe that the adoption rate for renewables will increase not decrease. The oil/coal/ gas companies are facing a losing battle. Solar is at parity now with these for providing energy and it I getting better.

ANONYMOUS
May 2, 2013

Tom writes in comment #4:
"The combination of efficiency and with new technology and computerized management of the GRID will reduce our demand by 37%"

37% precisely? Clearly Tom has drunk the cool-aid and it has made him believe he has the gift of prophecy. If Tom really believed the author's claim he would believe electricity demand would go UP because transportation and heating would all mostly have to be provided by electricity.
Steven

Economically and technically feasible does not mean we can presto! do it over night, it means that economies have become such that if we started today within 20-30 years we could be there.

30 years is a very leisurely time line. almost all cars get replaced on a 10 year timeline, other transportation on a 20-30 year timeline.

So if started today, plenty of time to switch over transportation with no significant added costs.

If you stop building large fossil fuel plants and switch to RE installations, especially distributed solar roof-top and distributed wind to the extent they can do their part, the cost is about the same and in the case of solar, maintenance is far less (especially if you modify your efforts to let the building owner own the array, since maintenance burden is on them in that case)

The one weak area at this time is energy storage technology, it is there and useable, but I am not sure how economically viable it is for general use at this time, but there is a lot of promising stuff that could be accelerated to make it viable easily within 10 years.

I agree with this completely. The combination of efficiency and with new technology and computerized management of the GRID will reduce our demand by 37%. Distributed Solar eliminates transmission loss, LEDs are 80% more efficient than incandescent, heat pumps are 50% more efficient than conventional oil/gas heat. Solar and wind are complementary as wind produces more power at night and in winter, and solar produces more power during the summer and during the day. Adding electric cars and their batteries to the mix improves the efficiency for transportation and by connecting the cars to the grid when they are not in motion provides the storage when production is up and demand is down and vice versa. Progress in software to manage the grid, improvements in battery technology and advances in solar technology all make this doable and an economic boom to economies of the world.

ANONYMOUS
May 2, 2013

The author writes: "Reaching the goal of getting 100 percent of the world's energy from renewable resources is technically and economically feasible today."
The only way this would be economically feasible now is if we get by on a small fraction of the energy we now consume, which would reduce much of the world to a pre-industrial lifestyle. The statement is disingenuous even if it is modified to only refer to electrical power instead of all energy. After a decade of enormous expense that has driven up electricity prices to ruinous levels, Germany still only produces about 20% of its electricity from renewables and at those low levels the costs of intermittency are much below what they would be if one needed to rely on renewables for 100% of generation. The developing world cannot afford such profligate spending, so how does the author think 100% renewables is even remotely feasible.

These sorts of fanciful lies are believed by nearly no one and only serve to harm the credibility of the renewable energy community.

RE will continue to be more expensive than fossil fuel for years to come. Political will and public policy translates into force. If the public is forced to pay skyrocketing prices for electricity to avoid less expensive fossil fuel, the fossil fuel will be exported to China, India and elsewhere to create more GHG.

This is a plan for economic disaster with nothing to gain!

ANONYMOUS
May 2, 2013

I would heartily disagree that obtaining 100% of the world's energy demand from renewable sources is technically and economically feasible "today". Just to replace all of the world's current electrical demand with RE within a decade would probably require an amount of money equivalent to the total global GDP. Then there would also be the massive amounts of energy used for transportation. You would need to spend trillions building new facilities to produce billions of gallons of diesel and jet fuel from renewable sources every year.

Lastly, it is unfortunate that the author chose to use California as an example of how a large population can "successfully" transition to 100% renewable energy usage. The state of California does not currently even have the ability to produce enough power from all sources to meet its own demands. Most of the power used by California is imported from out of state. California also imports most of the transportation fuels it consumes.

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John J. Berger, Ph.D. is an energy and environmental policy expert whose many books include Climate Myths: The Campaign Against Climate Science, Climate Peril: The Intelligent Reader’s Guide to Understanding the Climate Crisis (forthcoming)...