Monday, January 08, 2007

BCS National Title Game:Yes, I'm Picking Florida to Win

At the risk of delivering the most painful Quickie jinx of all time, I honestly think that Florida will beat OhioState in the BCS title game tonight. That puts me in a very small minority that believes the Gators will actually beat the Buckeyes. I also happen to be a huge Florida fan, which both bolsters and erodes the value of my pick.

As a Florida fan, here are the Top 3 things that I worry will impede a win:

I'm very surprised that pundits and fans (particularly OhioState fans) have forgotten the lessons of OhioState and Miami in the title game following the 2002 season. I have leaned on the comparison – however flimsy – since this FLA-OSU pairing was set.

But there's no getting around it: Miami was considered an unbeatable juggernaut; OhioState was unbeaten, yes, but had won a seemingly endless and improbable series of nail-biters to get there.

I run through tonight's matchups, and I have a hard time figuring out why OhioState is given such a decisive advantage (aside from the kicking game). For both teams, this is the best offense either has seen. Both teams' offenses have played against at least one team with as good or better defense (OSU: Michigan, UF: LSU). Player for player, Florida seems even.

Am I crazy to think that an "even" matchup favors the Gators? After all, everyone seems to think that OhioState is going to blow the doors off this Florida team (or, at least, win by more than a touchdown). I'm wondering what will happen when OhioState delivers its haymakers and the Gators not only stand pat, but hit back? How long does it take for an aura of invincibility to be eroded -- or shattered?

If there's one X-factor I think of more than others, it's this: OhioState has played one meaningful game this season -- Michigan. (I discount the Texas game; it was too early in the season, Texas was playing with an inexperienced QB, and Texas turned out to be merely good, not great.) Even the Michigan game wasn't nearly as close as the score indicated. This is where OhioState's average margin of victory comes back to haunt them: Where is OhioState's grit?

Florida, on the other hand, has endured grit this season. Frankly, too much grit. Too many close calls. Too many "must-have" moments. Too many threats to obliterate its season. But the residual effect of all that grit is a hardened winner's mindset of "earn it" -- not entitlement or coronation, like I feel from Ohio State and its proponents.

Ryan Ferguson of OrangeandBlueHue.com has a great post about the game (caveat: From a Florida fan's perspective) on AOL's Fanhouse. Here's the link.

When that grit is combined with an underdog mentality, a coach who knows how to push those buttons and enough talent to offset OhioState's talent, the formula is there for a Florida upset. I'm not going to predict a score, but I really believe that Florida will win. (Ugh: Curse!)

Comments Question: We've had an unbelievably awesome season of Commenter analysis of college football, so let's end with a huge effort. How do you break down the game? What are the biggest storylines? The biggest X-factors? What will be the difference in the game, and – finally – how do you see it playing out?

An earlier post from this morning sums up my opinion on this game: WHO CARES? College football should have ended / stopped being interesting once the NFL playoffs began. Back to thinking about all the ways that Matt Millen can screw up the #2 overall draft pick....

I think the game is going to go to OSU. As a fan of a rival Big Ten team which shall remain unnamed because OSU destroyed them, I've seen OSU play 3 times and I've seen Florida play twice. I just think that Ohio State is better.

The OSU receivers are just plain awesome. Ginn and Gonzalez could be first round picks if they went. Florida doesn't have that talent.

OSU also has some semblence of a running game. Florida does not.

OSU will make Florida one dimensional and Leak will not be able to carry the team. OSU will remain balanced and win methodically.

If all things are equal Dan than OSU gets the edge because of Troy Smith. Florida's offense is not the best that OSU has seen this year I would have to go with Michigan's. If UF had trouble putting up points against some of the top teams in the SEC how are they going to score points against tOSU.

Tim Teabow is overrated for everyone that has said give Urban a month to prepare and he will find a way to win. What about giving Coach SweaterVest a month to prepare you do not think he will find a way to exploit UFs defense or make them one-dimensional of offense.

People that are comparing this game to the OSU/Miami Fiesta Bowl are comparing it to the wrong Fiesta Bowl. I think it is going to turn out like the '96 Fiesta Bowl were Nebraska crushed a vaunted UF team that was actually favored and many people thought were going to win. Final score Nebraska 62 Florida 24.

I think Ohio State will win this, but in a much closer game than many people expect.

But my greatest knock on Florida is the same as it has been all year, the "strength" of its schedule. The SEC has only one win all year against a ranked non-conference opponent, and that was the Sugar Bowl over a vastly overrated ND team. Conferences can claim supremecy by beating eachother week in and week out and saying that results in being the toughest conference in the nation. But until someone from that conference steps up and beats a top non-conference opponent, it has the same weight in my mind as the WAC. Sure, Boise State can keep up with just about anyone -- but no one believed it until their bowl game win because their biggest previous win was an early season match-up with Oregon State.

Until the SEC starts winning big match-ups against ranked non-conference opponents, I will not believe they are the best conference or that Florida is a national championship type of team. Just ask Wisconsin and USC and Nebraska and Penn State about the best that the SEC has to offer.

I am sticking with my predicition from Day One when this match up was announced Florida will win and win easier then people think.

I think the X-Factor are the coaches and I think you give Urban Meyers enough time and he will come up with a solid game plan to work against Ohio State. Ohio State has been the best team all season but they have yet to impress me in terms of being head and shoulders above everyone else they have played.

As a college football fan, some of the above people (and from other threads) are right... this game is being played too late. I have zero rooting interest in this game outside of hoping its an enjoyable game to watch.

Don't care who wins. I don't want to listen to either set of fans after this one.

I could really care less about tonight's game. The 2 month lay off killed my interest....though I do hope the Buckeyes win, so that this blog is bearable. You're getting to be just like Vitale is with Duke now.

I don't see how people think Florida will match up well with Ohio State. And what is this talk about Florida having more speed? Sorry people in SEC land, but Ohio State has MORE speed than Florida does this year.

Ohio State's defense is better than Florida's offense. Ohio State's offense is better than Florida's defense. Ohio State's special teams are so much better than Florida's special teams.

Ohio State wins in a blowout reminiscent of the USC/OU game a few years ago. OSU:41 UF: 10

Well if Ohio State wins this game then they'll have proven that in this non-salary cap era, money still can win championships. The only problem I see is the letdown that Troy Smith might have by realizing he'll have to take a paycut to play in the NFL.

On second thought, I like how you think Dan. Telling OSU to worry about Tim Tebow and Brandon James. I hope to God those are the two players they're most worried about. Because the key to this game for UF will be getting the ball to Percy Harvin and Bubba Caldwell in situations where they can make a few moves to break open big gains. Things like screen passes and end arounds, if done properly, could be the biggest plays (for UF) of the game.

Tebow on short yardage will be huge, but only in 4th-and-short situations. Percy and Bubba are threats on most snaps, and are the key to opening up the game. Some longish completions to Dallas Baker the Touchdown Maker would be nice too.

I honestly have no idea about this game. OSU winning in a blowout wouldnt surprise me. A close game wouldnt surprise me. UF winning in a blowout wouldn't surprise me. I'm much more terrified after watching the Citrus Bowl, but the Rose Bowl gives me a little hope that maybe the Mich-ND game was something of a fluke and Michigan isn't as great as we thought they were. But really... I have no idea.

Here's how compare the two teams across the board, with a quick analysis of each:

QB Edge: OSU (Smith trumps the duo easily)RB Edge: OSU (FLA's 2nd best runner is the backup QB, OSU has two bonafied stars)WR Edge: OSU (They have 5 WRs that could start for Florida)O-Line Edge: Even (Smith's poise and manuervability masks OSU's offenses weakest link; they rarely dominate for lengths of time)D-Line Edge: OSU (Pitcock and Patterson will make life misrerable for Leak)LB Edge: Even (OSU's more opportunistic, FLA has more speed)DB Edge: Florida (Can't deny the edge here for FLA)

As a result, here's how I see it play out when OSU has the ball: Smith picks apart the speedy FLA defense early by avoiding Nelson with short passes to Robiskie, Hall and Gonzalez as well as a well-designed run or two. This opens things up for lots of Pittman and Wells later, then a big strike to Ginn as the dagger.

When Florida has the ball: Leak looks good early, but as OSU realizes Florida can't run the ball, it gets tougher and he commits a key turnover (or two). Tebow plays more than we might think and bulls his way in for a score and has several nice runs.

I don't think OSU is stupid enough to not know this in advance. Only, I also don't think you understand what you mean when you say "Florida can't run the ball." We don't have a RB to whom we can hand the ball off and let go about his business. But we do have WRs (and backup QBs) who have been very effective running the ball when the right plays are called. I think the key for OSU is stopping the plays that Urban will have designed to get Percy Harvin, Bubba Caldwell, and Tim Tebow the ball on running plays.

But then, this is just when UF has the ball. I don't know nearly enough about OSU to even begin to guess what OSU has to do on offense. Though I doubt they have 5 WRs who could start for UF--Bubba, Percy (even though he cant catch too well), and Dallas Baker are all legitimate stars at the WR position.

Point taken about the WRs, Harvin works well for Florida's offense because of his running ability. I still think that as strictly receivers, OSU's 3-5 receivers are legit 2 or 3 guys most anywhere. They are very deep at this spot.

And while Florida is excellent in the secondary, they are going to have to play a lot of nickle and some dime, and I think Smith is smart enough to exploit those matchups the become avaiable to him with the talent at the WR position allowing him to do so.

I don't know what gives you the impression that Florida is close to OSU in talent, or that this game resembles OSU/UM from a few years ago. Troy Smith is much better (especially in big games) than Ken Dorsey, and Jim Tressel is a much better coach than Larry Coker. If Florida pulls off the miracle I don't think i'll be able to read your blog anymore, it'll be too biased/annoying.

I did mention the LSU win over a highly overrated ND team. As soon as I posted, I remembered UGA beat Tech. But I wouldn't call the Auburn win over Nebraska a win over a ranked team -- first Nebraska will not be in the final top 25. Second, that sorry game was a far cry from what Oklahoma and USC did to that same Nebraska team. I woulnd't use the Cotton Bowl as my defense of the strength of the SEC. For every Cotton Bowl, there's also an Outback Bowl and CapitalOne Bowl.

With all the talk that tOSU may be rusty from a 50 day layoff and that UF has shot because of this. What happens if tOSU beat UF by 3 TDs will the UF backers complain that tOSU had to much time off and did not have to play in a conference championship?

I think Smith is smart enough to exploit those matchups the become avaiable to him with the talent at the WR position allowing him to do so.

Yeah, that scares the shit out of me. Our defense has done a great job all year of not giving up the big play. WE give up quite a bit of passing yards each game, but it all comes on 8-yard out patterns and that sort of thing, and the other team can rarely keep it up over an entire drive.

The one game where we did give up big passing plays was the SEC championship game against Arkansas--a team without a passing game! So yes, OSU's passing game is ridiculously scary, but if we can get back into our groove of not giving up the big play, we have enough playmakers on defense that over the course of a sustained drive we have a chance to make some stops/turnovers happen.

Second, that sorry game was a far cry from what Oklahoma and USC did to that same Nebraska team.

I think the point of bringing up Auburn-Nebraska is that, sure, Auburn didn't beat them as bad as OK and USC did, but then OK and USC are each conference champions, while Auburn is the 4th (or maybe 5th or 6th) best team in the SEC.

I think OSU wins by 20....Buckeyes are a well-oiled machine. They have been practicing to guard against trick plays. Florida ia NOT a good team at all! Florida loses big big big. This coming from a die hard Michigan who hates OSU

First off when it comes to speed I would love to see who is actually the fastest player on the field. My money is on harvin being the fastest player in Div I ball, but honestly the speed is about the same. I think that at this point past records this season really don't count. Clearly the gators have had to go through a lot more adversity this year and had to play entirely too many close games but it has helped them bond as a team. OSU is probably better on paper and we all have our own biases. Dan's, mine and countless others are convinced the gators will win. The problem is that most people are biased towards the region in the country they live in. The midwest will always pick the Big 11 and the southerners will typically go with the SEC or ACC. I have to agree with troy in gville that in that I could see the game being either really close or a blowout either way. My one fear is this just like with the last OSU championship and just like when UF lost to Nebraska what might happen if a key player gets hurt early. I honestly thought the gators had a chance against the huskers but when they mangled quez green's hip in the first quarter it was like the wind went out of our sails similar to what I thought happened with Miami in 02. You never want to see anyone get hurt but what happens if OSu has to bring in zwick as their QB does their supposedly superior talent still matter? What if god forbid something happened to leak and tebow had to be the qb the rest of the way. Maybe the biggest x factor is who gets injured. All I know is that I am jealous as hell of my dad and brothers who are already knee deep in a bottle of gin in glendale whereas my PO wouldn't let me go to the game even though I had a ticket. This is going to be a great game. I still think the gators win by a chris hetland fieldgoal. As much luck as we have had this year that would be the most improbable thing ever.

As a Michigan fan this game is such a Win Win situation for me. (only because Michigan lost to USC)

If Florida wins, OSU doesn't win the NC, which always makes me a happy guy to see OSU lose. No matter what the game is.

If OSU wins, the entire SEC being the ultimate conference is thrown out because they would be ofer this year vs the Big 10. Not to mention to see what Dan writes, and what my other Florida buddies have to say. It would also help show that Florida wasn't the right choice to go to the NC game. Since we lost, it doesn't help to much... but it is something to rub in their face.

I dont know where Dan is getting his information from but saying NO ONE is picking Florida is rediculous. I recall at least 3 analysts from ESPN picking Florida. There are countless articles stating that Ohio State does not picture them as the Miami team, because unlike that Miami team, Ohio State knows they can lose.

In fact, I think with the long layoff, more and more people are picking Florida to win the game. We will see in a few hours, but while there may be some similarities between Miami and Ohio Sate of 2002, either team can win this game

manningham...Get real. OSU played on the same turf, asshat. Why the heck would you think they messed it up on purpose? Thank goodness we are all smart enough to realize that you do NOT represent all Michigan fans when you talk.

Hopefully, transplanted from the Horseshoe, where they stepped up against a Penn State defense that decided to find its way from Happy Valley after failing to show up in South Bend. Revenge game that -- dammit -- saw Troy Smith dig deep when he need to, in a game that was far closer than the final score indicated (Anthony Morelli, your head in your ass...ass, Morelli'd head).

Wow, defended Ohio State twice now and have not felt the need to take a shower. If I'd have know it was this painless, I would have dumped siding with the (usually) condescending U of M fans years ago.

That said, I still think it's gonna be a far closer game tonight than any Buckeye fans think it'll be.

Hopefully Manningidiot will leave after OSU wins and he has nothing else to talk about. Dan's blog is not the best (and yes I have it favorited) but you bring it down about 40 notches when you post stupid statements as you have in the past hour.

So are you telling me that UM defenders forgot where to plant their feet? Can you come up with dumber excuses? Please dazzle us with your intellect on all things UM football, I am sure Bo is happy that guys like you follow his University.

You've had "seasons" for 8 years? Is that a term for a debilitating brain disease?

Michigan was playing on ILLEGAL ground? Shouldn't there be charges filed then? I mean several million people witnessed this game and somebody should have noticed this unconstitutional breaking of the Law. Justice must be served!!!

On a lighter note, and for God's sake, people, be careful out there if you're playing drinking games involving when this commercial airs...

BLOOMINGTON, IN -- In a year in which Dwyane Wade single handedly carried the Miami Heat to their first NBA title, Ryan Howard bashed 58 home runs for the Phillies, and Roger Federer and Tiger Woods made history in their respective sports, there was no shortage of candidates for the title of Sportsman of the Year.

But the most influential figure in the sports world was not an athlete at all, but a man, armed with an acoustic guitar and a simple melody, who provided the rugged American soundtrack to the games we love. That man was recording artist John Mellencamp, the Brushback's 2006 Sportsman of the Year.

Mellencamp's inspirational anthem, "Our Country," has become synonymous with football, just as his corporate sponsor, Chevrolet, is synonymous with American values.

"The song 'Our Country' is like a modern version of 'America the Beautiful,' but better, because 'America the Beautiful' didn't sell Chevys," said Gary Pascoe, executive creative director of Campbell-Ewald, the agency that created the ads. "We really wanted to illustrate the parallel between the history of our great nation and the history of Chevrolet vehicles. Remember 9/11? We do. Remember Katrina? We were there. Chevy trucks helped carry aid and shit to the black people. And of course, John Mellencamp is the perfect spokesman for us, because he embodies the same values as Chevrolet, and because his career shit the bed about ten years ago."

Pascoe said the song resonates loudly with football fans because football fans are patriotic and patriotic people enjoy trucks.

"Most football viewers can no longer think about their favorite sport without humming 'Our Country,'" said Pascoe. "That's because it airs nearly a dozen times during each broadcast. We want to hammer home the point that buying Chevy trucks means supporting America, our troops, puppies, and work boots, whereas buying a different kind of truck means supporting terrorists. Also, people who own Chevy trucks like to haul things through the mud, while people who own, say, Fords, like to sit on their asses and collect welfare checks. Go back to Mexico, freaks. This is Our Country."

Mellencamp agreed to donate his song to Chevrolet, an American institution, in an effort to help the company navigate its way through a difficult transition period. The 55-year-old singer said he came up with the lyrics while driving through the cornfields of Indiana in his pickup truck.

"I was just thinking about this country and all the hard working men and women who make it so great, then I came up with the line 'I still believe there's a dream for everyone,'" said Mellencamp. "Now don't get me wrong, I don't actually believe that. I'm not that naive. But the idea is nice. Then I came up with the line 'Let the voice of freedom sing out through this land,' because I wanted something really generic and vague that sounded cool but didn't mean anything."

Mellencamp also said that he was honored and surprised to be named Sportsman of the Year.

"I can't say I ever expected to be named Sportsman of the Year. But I understand that I've been such a ubiquitous presence in the world of sports this year that I might as well be Brett Favre or Shaquille O'Neal. I'm really just a regular guy, though. I'm a Folk. 'Folks' are people who live in the Midwest, do manual labor, eat corn and own Golden Retrievers. America belongs to Folks. The rest of you can eat shit."

In response to the wild popularity of the "Our Country" ads, Chevy is planning another advertising blitz to coincide with the Super Bowl. Terry Radigan, spokesman for Chevrolet, said the ads will feature a football theme.

"Football is very American, and Super Bowl Sunday is the most American day of all because it brings us all together to celebrate America," Radigan said. "Our new ad will feature scenes of people playing football and will be aired three dozen times during the game. Then, when the game is over, the Super Bowl MVP will say 'From the east coast to the west coast down that Dixie highway back home. This is our country' instead of 'I'm going to Disney World.' Then we're going to debut a new, 10-minute version of the song. Then I'm going to blow my brains out."

Chevy is also working on a Spanish version of "Our Country" so Latino immigrants can hear it and be frightened into going back to their own countries where they belong.

If Florida does pull the upset, I think Leak should turn towards the Florida student section and give them a big "Fuck You" for the way the fans and local press have treated him the past few seasons. He seems to be a good kid and deserved much better.

I think Leak should turn towards the Florida student section and give them a big "Fuck You" for the way the fans and local press have treated him the past few seasons.

Leak's been treated pretty fairly by the fans, all things considered. There's a reason a huge "If you boo Chris Leak I will punch you in the face" group popped up on facebook the day after he was booed at the Swamp. It was to show all the stupid underclassmen (who were mostly responsible for the booing) that you don't do that shit.

I came to read wisdom about the game I am about to watch. I have not seen either OSU or Florida much this year, and I don't really have strong feelings toward either, but I am looking forward to it even though it should have been played a week ago.

While OSU didn't cheat (would you feel comfortable handicapping the opposition if it also hurt your own team?), the turf did have an effect on the OSU-UM game. Those were two of the top defenses in college football, and they allowed what, a combined 80+?

Anyway, I see a defining moment in this game where it's 3rd and 2, Tebow goes in, and he either slips past the OSU line or they smack him down for a loss. Tomorrow's articles on the game will include a photo of this. The other momentum shifter will be turnovers, like always.

But, for my money, I don't see how Chris Leak can win this game. Seems nice, but he's just not big game material. And Tebow is too young to outsmart an elite defense like OSU.

An aside: remember that time when Jake Plummer lobbed it out of his own end zone, trading a safety for a pick six? Even THINKING of doing something as stupid as blindly tossing it up, in-play, disqualifies you as a great QB. Actually doing it disqualifies you as a good one. For life. I'll call it the Jake Plummer Rule.

Well, Leak has broken that rule many times in his career. Will he do it again? We'll see.

A little clarification: the Jake Plummer Rule applies to all moronic decisions, not just the specific one relating to Plummer. Example: shovel pass into the other team's interior lineman, who hasn't touched a ball since pee wee football.

I lost two cases of beer to my Dad on two season bets this year - one, the Steelers would repeat, and two, later in the year, that they would rally and make the playoffs. So, I called him up today and asked what he thought. He picked Florida....

... so....

I bet him a case of beer that OSU would win. He took it, but not for two cases - just one. So, I then offered him Fla +13.5 on the 2nd case, which he accepted.

Sigh. I need this game - not for beer, but to save a little face, haha.

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DanShanoff.com is a sports-blog spin-off of my long-time ESPN.com column, "The Daily Quickie." Anchored by an early-morning post of must-know topics, the blog is updated frequently throughout the day with new posts and user comments.