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Bullies & Brats 2

Arlington VA March 28, 2015

A National Disaster Waiting to Happen - Part II -Iran

In Part 1, I discussed the distance between the current administration and Israel, and asked the question WHY is it being allowed to happen. In this piece it's time for a discussion of one of the primary reasons--the emergence of Iran as a nuclear power.

For several years, the Obama Administration has been trying to get its arms around the problem of Iran, and its relations with the rest of the world. Most of you know the history--we supported the Shah of Iran, then in power, through the mid 1970's, when he was overthrown, and replaced eventually by an Ayatollah-based Islamic State, led first by Ayatollah Khomeni, and eventually his successor Ayatollah Khamenei. Both diatribed long and hard against the West and the US in particular, while continuing to court some western for arms and oil sales. Eventually, sanctions began to cut into their sales, and the economy began to dip. Short history--read the rest in Wikipedia

Where are we now?

Negotiations concerning Iranian nuclear capabilities have been ongoing since 2014, with Secretary of State John Kerry as the lead US negotiator. So far, what have these negotiations achieved? The short answer is basically NOTHING.

Here is the scoreboard:

Round of Negotiations

Number of Sessions

Achievements

First Round (2014)

6 Sessions

Framework

Extension for further talks

Second Round (2014)

3 Sessions

Agreement on second extension to 2015

Third Round (2015)

4 Sessions thus far

1 – US-Iran Bilateral Session

Announcement “Results will be known later”

No Agreement to Date

Now, if you believe the Obama Administration and Secretary Kerry, these are very sensitive negotiations, designed to curtail, but not eliminate nuclear capability in Iran (at least for 10 years). To get an agreement, and make it work, several things are necessary, the foremost being the elimination of the threat from Israel that they will bomb and destroy Iranian nuclear facilities.

How do you get Israel to agree to such tactics, but not involve them in the talks? There are two answers to that question. The first, a diplomatic one, is that you exert influence on the Israeli Government to reduce tensions by agreeing to maintain a low profile while the talks continue. Of course, the ideal solution is to have Israel as a partner in those talks--something the Islamic fundamentalists will not allow.

The second alternative is to 'arrange' to have a new government elected, without the people most opposed to dealing with Iran. Since Benjamin Netanyahu is the most vocal, the logic is to eliminate him as a stumbling block, and work to get a more moderate coalition in power. Unfortunately that backfired, and did so badly for Obama despite the loud and continuing rhetoric by Obama and his minions, and at least one of his p[olitical operatives going to Israel to work with opposition parties.

The American and Israeli press have both made this disagreement between the two political leaders into a rolling, and now bitter controversy. The Obama administration first releases details of the Israeli nuclear program, despite long-standing agreements not to do so. I already mentioned the Breitbart article, and there were a number of others, mostly just before the scheduled speech in Mid-March.

Arutz Sheva, the Israeli National News, correctly pointed out that the document de-classified by the Department of Defense only included information on Israel, not Italy, Germany, and other Western country programs. Those other programs were completely redacted, leading a logical person to conclude that it was a direct jab at the Israeli PM.

More importantly, the 'outing' of Israel was supposed to help the negotiations and get rid of Netanyahu with his own people. Both backfired. Netanyahu is even stronger than before, and now the iranians have to worry about a nuclear-armed Israel (as if they were not already), giving them less reason to agree to shelve their own program.

Several days after the speech, and the re-election of Netanyahu, Obama went on a television interview where he stated that the historic agreements between Israel and the US might need revision, and that the US just might not continue to block UN Security Council resolution affecting Israel. Officially that was because of the statements by Netanyahu that he would not support a two-state solution during his tenure, but the Obama remarks really drove an even deeper wedge between the US and Israel on broader issues.

The bottom line here seems to be that there will be little more than formalities with Netanyahu until a new occupant of the White house takes office. My wild guess is that Kerry will get only another extension and no agreement; the Iranians will continue to enrich uranium and plutonium; the Israelis will rely much less on the hollow US promises, and the world will move closer to a regional war in the Mideast.

In the next part, we will look at other issues separating the US and Israel. In the meanwhile, a key question to answer is can anyone see some kind of logical diplomacy on the part of the Obama Administration here, other than to secure some kind of legacy late in his otherwise failed administration?

Comments

Bullies & Brats 2

Arlington VA March 28, 2015

A National Disaster Waiting to Happen - Part II -Iran

In Part 1, I discussed the distance between the current administration and Israel, and asked the question WHY is it being allowed to happen. In this piece it's time for a discussion of one of the primary reasons--the emergence of Iran as a nuclear power.

For several years, the Obama Administration has been trying to get its arms around the problem of Iran, and its relations with the rest of the world. Most of you know the history--we supported the Shah of Iran, then in power, through the mid 1970's, when he was overthrown, and replaced eventually by an Ayatollah-based Islamic State, led first by Ayatollah Khomeni, and eventually his successor Ayatollah Khamenei. Both diatribed long and hard against the West and the US in particular, while continuing to court some western for arms and oil sales. Eventually, sanctions began to cut into their sales, and the economy began to dip. Short history--read the rest in Wikipedia

Where are we now?

Negotiations concerning Iranian nuclear capabilities have been ongoing since 2014, with Secretary of State John Kerry as the lead US negotiator. So far, what have these negotiations achieved? The short answer is basically NOTHING.

Here is the scoreboard:

Round of Negotiations

Number of Sessions

Achievements

First Round (2014)

6 Sessions

Framework

Extension for further talks

Second Round (2014)

3 Sessions

Agreement on second extension to 2015

Third Round (2015)

4 Sessions thus far

1 – US-Iran Bilateral Session

Announcement “Results will be known later”

No Agreement to Date

Now, if you believe the Obama Administration and Secretary Kerry, these are very sensitive negotiations, designed to curtail, but not eliminate nuclear capability in Iran (at least for 10 years). To get an agreement, and make it work, several things are necessary, the foremost being the elimination of the threat from Israel that they will bomb and destroy Iranian nuclear facilities.

How do you get Israel to agree to such tactics, but not involve them in the talks? There are two answers to that question. The first, a diplomatic one, is that you exert influence on the Israeli Government to reduce tensions by agreeing to maintain a low profile while the talks continue. Of course, the ideal solution is to have Israel as a partner in those talks--something the Islamic fundamentalists will not allow.

The second alternative is to 'arrange' to have a new government elected, without the people most opposed to dealing with Iran. Since Benjamin Netanyahu is the most vocal, the logic is to eliminate him as a stumbling block, and work to get a more moderate coalition in power. Unfortunately that backfired, and did so badly for Obama despite the loud and continuing rhetoric by Obama and his minions, and at least one of his p[olitical operatives going to Israel to work with opposition parties.

The American and Israeli press have both made this disagreement between the two political leaders into a rolling, and now bitter controversy. The Obama administration first releases details of the Israeli nuclear program, despite long-standing agreements not to do so. I already mentioned the Breitbart article, and there were a number of others, mostly just before the scheduled speech in Mid-March.

Arutz Sheva, the Israeli National News, correctly pointed out that the document de-classified by the Department of Defense only included information on Israel, not Italy, Germany, and other Western country programs. Those other programs were completely redacted, leading a logical person to conclude that it was a direct jab at the Israeli PM.

More importantly, the 'outing' of Israel was supposed to help the negotiations and get rid of Netanyahu with his own people. Both backfired. Netanyahu is even stronger than before, and now the iranians have to worry about a nuclear-armed Israel (as if they were not already), giving them less reason to agree to shelve their own program.

Several days after the speech, and the re-election of Netanyahu, Obama went on a television interview where he stated that the historic agreements between Israel and the US might need revision, and that the US just might not continue to block UN Security Council resolution affecting Israel. Officially that was because of the statements by Netanyahu that he would not support a two-state solution during his tenure, but the Obama remarks really drove an even deeper wedge between the US and Israel on broader issues.

The bottom line here seems to be that there will be little more than formalities with Netanyahu until a new occupant of the White house takes office. My wild guess is that Kerry will get only another extension and no agreement; the Iranians will continue to enrich uranium and plutonium; the Israelis will rely much less on the hollow US promises, and the world will move closer to a regional war in the Mideast.

In the next part, we will look at other issues separating the US and Israel. In the meanwhile, a key question to answer is can anyone see some kind of logical diplomacy on the part of the Obama Administration here, other than to secure some kind of legacy late in his otherwise failed administration?