Samenvatting:The objective of this chapter is to examine the impact of technological
learning on the diffusion of specific renewable energy technologies
into the electricity market of the EU-25 until 2020, using a market
simulation model (ADMIRE REBUS). It is assumed that from 2012 a harmonized
trading system for renewable energy certificates will be implemented.
Also it is assumed that a target of 24% renewable electricity (RES-E)
in 2020 is set and met. By comparing optimistic and pessimistic endogenous
technological learning scenarios, it is found that the diffusion of
onshore wind energy into the market is relatively robust, regardless
of technological development. However the diffusion rates of offshore
wind energy and biomass gasification greatly depend on their technological development.
Competition between these two options and already existing biomass combustion options
largely determines the overall costs of electricity from renewables
and the choice of technologies for the individual member countries.
In the optimistic learning scenario, in 2020 the market price for
RES-E is 1 ?ct/kWh lower than in the pessimistic scenario (about 7 vs.
8 ?ct/kWh). As a result, the total expenditures for RES-E market
stimulation are 30% lower in the optimistic scenario. For comparison,
instead of introducing a harmonized trading system, also continuation
of present policies to support renewables was evaluated, assuming
that the member states of the EU can fulfil their ambition levels
only by exploiting their domestic renewable energy potentials (i.e. exclusion of international trade). This would require many member states to use their offshore wind potential, making the diffusion of offshore wind
much less dependent on both the rate of technological learning and
competition from biomass options, compared to the harmonization policy
scenario.