lets talk numbers for tomorrows game, Broncos vs Ravens

a couple of years ago i came up with a formula for determining yards a team will get vs said defense. its basically analytics. analytics has been around for awhile but football is just now catching onto it

the way i crunch my numbers was based on the yardage offense and defense had already given up that season. so for me to try to do it for the first game of the season, i had to base it off last year numbers plus keep in mind the additions each team made in the offseason.

most analytic departments aren't really football guys, they are just number guys, so it would be a little tougher for them to come up with accurate numbers. they would just crunch the numbers and not take into account the personnel, because in their world, numbers dont lie. but me following football i know that sometimes they do, so i tend to adjust my numbers accordingly

anyhow, based on the game tomorrow

Broncos Passing Yardage: 332
Broncos Rushing Yardage: 130

for the broncos i took into account that obviously peyton will be passing about 45-50 times against a pretty good pass defense but the addition of welker underneath will help free up thomas and welker on the outsides. They will be employing a rb by drive and will run a lot of stretch plays against a revamped ravens front 7 and will see minimal running room

Ravens Passing Yardage: 246
Ravens Rushing Yardage: 159

with them losing boldin and pitta it really hurts the passing game but torrey smith absolutely destroyed champ in the playoffs and champ is 50/50 on even playing tomorrow. with no von miller and dumervil playing for the ravens now, the pass rush should be very very minimal. i expect a lot of underneath passes to ray rice and a very run heavy game plan with him and benard pierce and actually see them running for more than the 159 yards my analytics gave me.

baltimore's defense is now a joke, and outside of ray rice, nobody on their offense is worth mention.

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Baltimore's defense will be far better than last year. They've made significant improvements athletically at every position. Webb, who is quickly becoming one of the top cover corners in the league, is back and healthy. Suggs is healthy. Ngata is healthy and back at his real position. It'd be a safer argument to suggest that Baltimore will have the best defense in the league than that they will finish worse than they did last year.

Torrey Smith has been improving every week he's been in the NFL. The losses of Boldin and Pitta will be tangible in the early weeks, but the loss of Cam Cameron's Tecmo Super Bowl playbook should more than make up for them. Flacco is rich as fuck.

im leaning towards t smith for the simple fact they going to need him to beat manning if especially manning makes it a high scoring game. rice isnt going to keep up with manning touchdowns, they are going to launch the rock to smith for deep passes.

ty hilton at oakland is fantasy dream, will be too easy for him, so easy tho they may not need him too much. shouldnt be a close game, i wonder if hilton will benefit that or hinder his performance.

im leaning towards t smith for the simple fact they going to need him to beat manning if especially manning makes it a high scoring game. rice isnt going to keep up with manning touchdowns, they are going to launch the rock to smith for deep passes.

ty hilton at oakland is fantasy dream, will be too easy for him, so easy tho they may not need him too much. shouldnt be a close game, i wonder if hilton will benefit that or hinder his performance.

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colts are running a 2 TE system and they are running with DHB because of his blocking ability, TY will only play in 3 wide sets. the upside is there but i would wait to see what his snap count is like