EIA’s Electric Power Monthly – February 2019 Edition

The EIA released the latest edition of their Electric Power Monthly on February 27th, with data for December 2018. The table above shows the percentage contribution of the main fuel sources to two decimal places for the last two months and the full year 2018 (YTD).

The winter solstice occurs on December 21st so the absolute contribution from Solar remained much lower than in the summer months falling from 5859 Gwh in November to 4962 GWh, with the corresponding percentage contribution decreasing to 1.47% from 1.82% in November. Coal and Natural Gas between them, fueled 60.41% of US electricity generation in December, with the share from Nuclear, Wind and Conventional Hydroelectric edging up. The contribution from Natural Gas was down at 31.71%, from 33.18% in November, with the amount generated actually increasing slightly, from 106,804 GWh to 106,978 GWh. Generation fueled by coal increased from 92,738 GWh to 96,825 GWh resulting in the percentage contribution falling slightly from 28.81% to 28.7%. Nuclear generated 71657 Gwh, 12.06% more than it did it November with the percentage contribution to the total rising from 19.87% to 21.24%. The gap between the contribution from All Renewables and Nuclear started to widen with the 0.24% increased contribution from All Renewables as opposed to the the 1.37% increase in the contribution from Nuclear. The amount of electricity generated by Wind increased by about 17.58%, (3163 GWh) resulting in the percentage contribution increasing from 5.59% to 6.27%. The contribution from Hydro increased 1554 Gwh (7.01%) in absolute terms with the increase in total generation resulting in the percentage contribution increasing by only 0.14%. The combined contribution from Wind and Solar increased to 7.74% from 7.41% in November and the contribution from Non-Hydro Renewables also increased to 10.31% from 10.22%. The contribution of zero emission and carbon neutral sources, that is, nuclear, hydro, wind, solar, geothermal, landfill gas and other biomass increased to 38.59% from 36.97% in November.

Annual dataNow that the full year’s data is in for 2018, below is the updated chart for the annual contribution from the various Sources. For the full year 2018, Natural Gas generated 35.14%, 7.7% more than Coal, widening the gap between the amount of electricity generated using coal and the amount generated using NG. At 27.44%, coal has made the smallest contribution to the electricity mix for a very long time and the contribution from coal is likely to shrink further with several more coal burning facilities scheduled for closure in 2019.

In the absence of the unusually high levels of rain experienced in the west over the 2016 to 2017 winter season, the contribution form hydro-electric generation fell back to just under 7% (6.98%). Hydro has only contributed more than 7% in three years since 2005, i.e. 2006, 2011 and 2017. 2018 Makes it the fifth year in a row that non-hydro renewable sources have contributed more to the electricity mix than conventional hydroelectric sources and wind alone is edging closer to contributing as much as hydro, coming in at 6.58% as opposed to hydro’s 6;98%. In 2016 the EIA reported, U.S. wind generating capacity surpasses hydro capacity at the end of 2016. The lower capacity factors of wind turbines result in lower overall generation from wind but, with the growth in wind capacity continuing apace, it is a matter of time before wind generates more than hydro on an annual basis. In 2017 and 2016 wind generated more electricity than conventional hydroelectric for the months of October and November and in October 2018 wind again generated marginally more at 5.99% as opposed to 5.77% for hydro. In November 2018, wind returned to contributing less than hydro unlike the previous two years.

The fastest growing source continues to be solar PV, with the contribution from solar growing by almost 20%, a lower rate than the previous two years when it grew by almost 50%. The contribution from solar in 2018 only grew by 66.97% in comparison to 2016 so, if the trend of slowing growth in solar continues, we will see the doubling time increase from every two years to a longer period. The ten year view of the growth of solar continues to be spectacular nonetheless . Solar contributed a mere two hundredths of one percent to the electricity mix in 2007 and the contribution has grown to 2.3 % in 2017, over one hundred times as much.

Among other things, tariffs imposed by the current US administration on Chinese imports had a negative impact on solar capacity growth for 2018. The current administration’s preference for the use of fossil fuels may have resulted in policy signals that could have affected the growth of solar capacity as well. It could be seen as remarkable that solar capacity grew as much as it did, despite the less than enthusiastic support it is receiving from the current federal administration. At some point, solar capacity growth could accelerate, as module costs continue to fall to the point where electricity generated using solar PV is the lowest cost source, even for regions that do not have the excellent solar resources available in the southwestern US.

”U.S. net electricity generation increased by 4% in 2018, reaching a record high of 4,178 million megawatthours (MWh), according to EIA’s Electric Power Monthly. Last year was the first time total utility-scale generation surpassed the pre-recession peak of 4,157 million MWh set in 2007. Weather is the primary driver of year-to-year fluctuations in electricity demand. The increased demand for electricity in 2018—including record demand in the commercial and residential sectors—is largely attributable to cold winters and a hot summer.”

On electricity sales to the commercial and industrial sectors, the article states:

”Electricity use in commercial buildings is also affected by the weather but to a lesser degree; electricity sales to the commercial sector last year increased 2% from 2017. Electricity use in the industrial sector has been relatively unchanged in recent years, with 2018 electricity sales to this sector 3% lower than in 2017.”

This means that the increased electricity demand for 2018 cannot be attributed to any increased economic activity since, most of the increase in demand was a result of hot weather and came from the residential sector, with only a slight increase in demand from the commercial sector.

Most of the additional demand was satisfied with electricity generated by natural gas. The graph below shows the total annual generation from 2005 to 2017.

Monthly data continuedThe graph below shows the absolute production from a selection of the various sources as well as the total amount generated (right axis).

The chart below shows the total monthly generation at utility scale facilities by year versus the contribution from solar. The left hand scale is for the total generation, while the right hand scale is for solar output and has been deliberately set to exaggerate the solar output as a means of assessing it’s potential to make a meaningful contribution to the midsummer peak. In December 2018 the output from solar continued it’s decline heading into the winter solstice.

The chart below shows the total monthly generation at utility scale facilities by year versus the combined contribution from wind and solar. The left hand scale is for the total generation, while the right hand scale is for combined wind and solar output and has been deliberately set to exaggerate the combined output of solar and wind as a means of assessing the potential of the combination to make a meaningful contribution to the year round total.

The chart below shows the percentage contributions of the various sources to monthly capacity additions for 2018. In December 39.07 percent of capacity additions were Natural Gas. Solar added 17.16 percent and and Wind contributed 42.73 percent of new capacity. Batteries had relatively minor capacity addition of 0.54 percent , 0.49 of capacity additions were Geothermal and 0.013 percent of new capacity was hydroelectric. In December the total added capacity reported was 8972.8 MW, more than twice as much as the amount reported in May, the next highest monthly figure. I suspect that not all this capacity was added in December but, it may be that amounts that are reported late or for which a precise commissioning date is not available, are reported in December.

For the complete year 61.62 percent of the added capacity was Natural Gas (19305.6 MW), 21.13 percent was Wind (6621.5 MW), 15.71 percent was Solar (4921.7 MW), 0.568 percent was Batteries (177.8 MW), 0.431 percent was Hydro (135.2 MW), 0.192 was Geothermal (60 MW), 0.17 percent was Other Waste Biomass (53.4 MW) and all other sources contributed less than 0.1 percent each to the capacity additions. It is worthy of note that no new coal fired capacity was reported in 2018.

The chart below shows the percentage contributions of the various sources to monthly capacity retirements for 2018. and the whole year . In December 64.57 percent of capacity retirements were fueled by coal and 35.12 percent were fueled by natural gas. Conventional Hydroelectric, Geothermal and Other Waste Biomass made up the remaining 0.31 percent of the 2541.1 MW reported retired in December.

For the entire year, 68.87 percent of the retirements were Coal fired plants (12907.2 MW), 25.21 percent were fueled by Natural Gas (4724.8 MW), 3.24 percent were fueled by Nuclear (607.7 MW), 1.19 percent were fueled by Petroleum Liquids (222.9 MW), 0.55 percent of the capacity retirements came from Wood Waste Biomass (102.3 MW) and all other sources retired less than seventy megawatts of capacity

Following the posting of the November edition of this report, a request was made for a graph that better represented the scale of the capacity additions and retirements. Below is a chart for monthly net additions/retirements and another for the year to date.

Below is a table of the top ten states in order of coal consumption for electricity production for December 2018 and the year before for comparison

Renewable energy (excluding hydro) crossed 10% for the 1st time. Because of the trade war, the renewable energy probably slowed down and it could pick up this year especially with electric vehicle sales surging.

As the battery storage increases the small %age of power produced by petcoke and oil will decrease and the renewable energy will push ahead. Lets hope the nuclear power increases.

Outcast_Searcher on Sun, 10th Mar 2019 3:24 am

Progress, but it’s slower than all the excited hype / chatter about wind and solar would seem to suggest.

Hopefully cheaper / better batteries at commercial scale will help utilities be able to go to more solar and wind in the short to intermediate term.

Home solar would be great with battery backup, but until the batteries are a LOT cheaper, it just doesn’t make sense.

My power bill averages only about $60 a month in my 1957 brick ranch with about 1800 SF, 600 SF of that in a half basement, with poor insulation, but well insulated windows.

But, I’m frugal, and keep the temp. about 66 degrees F in the winter, and about 76 degrees F in the summer.

So paying $7K or so EACH for enough Powerwall batteries to last several days, for example, is just nuts.

I use a whole house generac generator which works just fantastic on NG, and hope that by the time it gets old and perhaps unreliable, battery prices for home power backup are a LOT better.

Davy on Sun, 10th Mar 2019 6:38 am

I have a well-insulated brick home utilizing foam insulation with top of the line windows and doors. The roof has a well ventilated attic. I have a split level Brick so the basement is half in the ground for further insulation effect. I have 12 solar panels with batteries and inverter. I heat with wood for water and space heating. This is a wood boiler with water to water heat exchangers and forced air heat exchanger. The wood boiler is a gasifier so it uses much less wood than traditional outdoor wood stoves. I also have a fire place insert in the main kitchen/living area. I would have done more but I bought this home and gutted it. That was the best I could do efficiency wise with what I had.

I still have an electric bill because I have a hybrid system. My wife uses an electric oven. I can also heat with electric. All my breakers can be switched to solar or grid individually. Eclectic oven is not on solar. Backup water heater is not on solar. I can through demand management efforts run a combination of breakers depending on the solar conditions. I can just leave all breakers on grid if it is a bad solar day or I am not at the farm. On a great day I can run everything in the home and sometimes have spare capacity. In the summer I can run the A/C mini split inverter. I could use the batteries at night but I choose to extend their life and have the batteries fully charged for any kind of emergency. I am a doomer (lite) so I chose to put in a system to give me off grid capabilities. I am also real green and believe we all should make an effort to harvest and gather solar energy. This is more than solar panels. I also believe in being energy efficient with home and actions. I am a conservationist who likewise attempts to minimize my foot print. I support natural areas with conservation efforts on the farm.

This is not cheap. The solar system was expensive although it could have been less so if I would have just put my power back into the grid. I chose batteries and inverter for off grid capabilities. I am safe if the grid goes down. The wood boiler is not cheap wither. Wood is expensive in time and the cost of the system was not cheap. As cheap as propane is these days and the ease of use of propane, wood is not the best investment from a time and cost perspective. Yet, I have many acres of woods I can sustainably harvest. I like working with wood and I love wood heat. We have had some very cold days this year and there is nothing like warming your ass with a wood stove. My wood boiler keeps the house comfortable and it is easy to use. I load it in the morning and evening.

I am doing a life experiment. I am attempting to be real green. Real Green is a holistic life effort at the lowering of my consumption foot print and the maximizing the harvesting and gathering of local solar energy. I am maximizing my efforts at gathering solar energy with technology and also with animals and grass. I raise goats and cattle that are harvesting solar energy that then become meat. I make hay that is harvested energy. I also grow some of my own food in a garden, orchard, and grape vines. I have wild meats and nuts I collect. I am utilizing wood that is solar energy. I have panels gathering solar energy directly.

I live an efficient life centered around conservation as best I can considering where I live and the actions of my significant others. I don’t force this on my family. Real Green is not the cheapest route but it is the best for my local environment. Fossil Fuels are cheapest here in the Ozarks but I feel it is the way of life that is important. This experiment is something I hope can make a difference if modern life is in a decline. I think modern life is slowly collapsing and could suddenly fall apart. I feel what I am doing is vital. My prep efforts may turn out to pay off or not. I am not better than other who don’t do anything. I am just blessed to be able to do what I do. I find it enjoyable and it fits my personality.

“At a price of just $53,000, I have to say that I was shocked at how affordable this vehicle is. You can spend weekends on the water sipping pineapple juice, relaxing in the breeze, and reading every CleanTechnica article ever published for less than the price of a Tesla Model 3 Performance. The boat can glide for hours on the water with a relatively small battery and even has the capability to get you home on sunshine if you happen to do a disastrous job planning. (You can charge the battery from the solar panels or on the mainland, by the way.)”

Davy on Sun, 10th Mar 2019 7:33 am

I love talking about myself. It makes me feel all important like.

Not Davy on Sun, 10th Mar 2019 7:50 am

Davy on Sun, 10th Mar 2019 7:33 am

JuanP on Sun, 10th Mar 2019 7:51 am

I love talking about myself. It makes me feel all important like.

Davy on Sun, 10th Mar 2019 8:08 am

JuanP is all encompassing and JuanP is omnipotent.

JuanP on Sun, 10th Mar 2019 8:11 am

JuanP is all encompassing and JuanP is omnipotent.

JuanP on Sun, 10th Mar 2019 8:12 am

JuanP on Thu, 30th Jun 2016 4:56 pm
I think I could use my antisocial, psychopathic, sociopathic skills to convince people to vote for Trump. I can be very convincing when I want and I am excellent at manipulating people.
JuanP on Sun, 30th Aug 2015 5:40 am
…then you simply have a higher opinion of humans than I do. But what can I do? I am after all an admitted antisocial misanthrope. I just think most people suck!
JuanP on Fri, 12th Aug 2016 10:58 am
I stopped caring about humanity’s future a long time ago once I realized it was a waste of my time and energy. Now I think that it would be best for life on Earth if we ceased to exist as a species.
JuanP on Wed, 14th Sep 2016 9:59 pm
I struggle with the fact that I belong to the same species; I find myself emotionally and intellectually incapable of accepting the fact. That is why I consider myself a sui generis individual rather than a human animal.
JuanP on Sun, 26th Jun 2016 12:22 am
As far as I am concerned human beings are a bunch of arrogant and retarded ignorant fools and they deserve what’s coming. Call me selfish if you want, I don’t give a fuck!
JuanP on Fri, 15th May 2015 11:21 am
I did therapy for over a decade and most of it was a waste, but I had one therapist for a year who understood my issues and that helped, though I am still thoroughly screwed up.
JuanP on Tue, 22nd Dec 2015 6:57 am
They make me smile and happy and give me a brief respite from my cronic and acute depression.
JuanP on Sun, 17th Aug 2014 8:19 pm
I have suffered from cronic and acute clinical depression for most of my life, but I wouldn’t have it any other way.
JuanP on Mon, 23rd May 2016 8:53 am
I was just telling my wife yesterday that I would very willingly give my arms, legs, tongue, eyes, ears, nuts, and dick to experience life like normal people do for just one hour to know what it feels like. I have been a seriously depressed realist since I have a memory. My first memory of my life is of leaning against a tree alone in my kindergarten’s playground looking at all the other kids playing, thinking how stupid their behavior was, and wondering why I wasn’t like them. I basically don’t interact with normal people anymore. They have nothing to offer me and I don’t want to give them anything.

I am back, bitches! I just got back from a surfing vacation in Costa Rica. I am recharged and refreshed, and ready to continue fucking with the Exceptionalist and his multiple personalities for the foreseeable future.

Cloggie on Sun, 10th Mar 2019 8:33 am

Another thread ruined by mobster

Davy on Sun, 10th Mar 2019 8:47 am

Clogged, your friend JuanP is ruining this board but you play along and deflect for him. That makes you part of
It. Everything I say is trolled by JuanP. This has been going on since July and with constant identity theft since October. You know this but you choose to be dishonest about it.

Cloggie on Sun, 10th Mar 2019 8:51 am

– I have no friends (here), don’t want any
– I would like this madness to stop
– you don’t understand the psychology of mobster’s tribe

Clogged, i said friends sarcastically. You have tools to advance your agenda.

“– I would like this madness to stop
– you don’t understand the psychology of mobster’s tribe”

Music to dirty Juan’s ears. This is exactly what he wants and you serve him up .

Cloggie on Sun, 10th Mar 2019 10:06 am

“Music to dirty Juan’s ears. This is exactly what he wants and you serve him up .”

He is your problem. Antius and I have regularly said, in a neutral tone, that it should stop. But like a Pavlov dog you keep on feeding the troll (most likely mob, not Juan).

Cloggie on Sun, 10th Mar 2019 10:11 am

Back in Holland. Heavy wind gusts, 6C, rain.
Miss Spain already.
After “retirement” will probably spend many winter months there.
Had 3×3 meals/courses per day in this all-inclusive resort, but lost 1 kilo regardless, thanks to walking/jogging.

“We are prepared to open up the political process and let all of the people come in.”

Shumer-jew and catholic-zionist Pelosi go “full on the organ” and de facto declare themselves as “world-politicians”. Americans no longer exist, or rather everybody is an American now, provided of course he sets his dark foot on US soil and runs straight into the loving electoral care of Shumer and Pelosi. Interestingly, American whitey has finally understood he is on the receiving end of Shumer’s intentions and finally circles the waggons. This is going to be good.

I still pray every morning to the Good Lawd for half an hour that he send us Dolfie. He may have lost the war, but nevertheless scrubbed the place clean of the Shumers of this world. In the long run this gives us Europeans precisely the proper hand of cards we need the next geopolitical round.

“He is your problem. Antius and I have regularly said, in a neutral tone, that it should stop. But like a Pavlov dog you keep on feeding the troll (most likely mob, not Juan).”

Nope, clogged, you are again fraudulent. Evidence is on the board for JuanP bad behavior. You have no evidence in support of your version of MOB being the board troll. JuanP admits to it and is proud of it. JuanP could give a shit about others here. He is a selfish playboy brat that wants his way. This is not Pavlov dog shit dumbass this is an excessive obsession with taking me down, big difference. This is about censorship which BTW you approve of then whine about. He has been beaten and does not have the ability to debate the issues. He has lost I have won in this regard. What have I won? I have won the right to speak when I like. My message has won also or he would be debating it. He can’t because he has no legs to stand on

Davy on Sun, 10th Mar 2019 11:42 am

“DEMOCRATS VOTE TO GIVE ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS THE RIGHT TO VOTE”

Clogged, you realize that has to pass the Senate and go to Trump?? Zero chance of becoming law. LOL, you don’t even understand out political system.

Davy on Sun, 10th Mar 2019 11:43 am

“Orwell big in China. US soon to follow?”

Big in Europe already

Davy on Sun, 10th Mar 2019 11:44 am

The EU needs to be replaced by a “Europe of the Fatherlands” confederation, including Russia.

LMFAO dreaming. More like balkanization and back to the ways of old Europe.

Davy on Sun, 10th Mar 2019 11:52 am

I’m crazy I tell you.

CRAZY!!!!

AFDF on Sun, 10th Mar 2019 11:52 am

makato
where r u bro
supertard is operating unimpeeded
get to work gay boy

AFDF on Sun, 10th Mar 2019 12:02 pm

as muh as i hate supertard he alone practice sustainlable living, hell the goat alone wins it.
when shtf virtual farming and bf’s are not goig to cut it.

but i don’t want to piss off makato. i hope he comes back and attack supertard

Not Davy on Sun, 10th Mar 2019 12:19 pm

Davy on Sun, 10th Mar 2019 11:52 am

JuanP on Sun, 10th Mar 2019 12:20 pm

I’m crazy I tell you.

CRAZY!!!!

makato
where r u bro
supertard is operating unimpeeded
get to work gay boy

as muh as i hate supertard he alone practice sustainlable living, hell the goat alone wins it.
when shtf virtual farming and bf’s are not goig to cut it.

but i don’t want to piss off makato. i hope he comes back and attack supertard