PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION AS A SOURCE OF GLOBAL WARMING: BEYOND CAPITALISM AND TOWARD AN ALTERNATIVE WORLD SYSTEM Hans Baer, School of Philosophy, Anthropology, and Social Inquiry and Centre of Health and Society, University of Melbourne and Merrill Singer, Center for Health, Intervention, and Prevention, and Department of Anthropology, University of Connecticut Presentation at the Climate Justice Seminar, 2 August 2008, Melbourne

Hans Baer, School of Philosophy, Anthropology, and Social Inquiry and Centre of Health and Society, University of Melbourne

and

Merrill Singer, Center for Health, Intervention, and Prevention, and Department of Anthropology, University of Connecticut

Presentation at the Climate Justice Seminar,

2 August 2008, Melbourne

ANTHROPOLOGY: PAST AND PRESENT Anthropology in past Tended to focus on indigenous or tribal societies Kathleen Gough: anthropology as the ‘child of imperialism’ Anthropology since the 1960s Diversity of human societies: indigenous, pre-capitalist state, capitalist, post-revolutionary or socialist-oriented Focus still on local communities: rural or urban, developing or developed countries Various theoretical perspectives: structural-functional, structuralist, phenomenological, Marxian or political economic, post-modernist Considerable overlap with sociology, political science, history, and political economy We define ourselves as ‘historical social scientist who happens to have PhD in anthropology.’

Considerable overlap with sociology, political science, history, and political economy

We define ourselves as ‘historical social scientist who happens to have PhD in anthropology.’

BASIC PREMISES OF A CRITICAL ANTHROPOLOGY OF GLOBAL WARMING Global warming as a by-product of the treadmill of production and consumption associated with global capitalism Impact of global warming on human populations: settlement patterns, subsistence, and health Adaptation vs. mitigation Need to transcend capitalist world system with alternative global political economy

2007 IPCC REPORT Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20 th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse concentration. . . Discernible human influences now extend to other aspects of climate, including ocean warming, continental-average temperatures, temperature extremes and wind patterns. For the next two decades a warming of about 0.2 o C per decade is projected for a range of SRES [Special Report on Emission Scenarios]. Even if the concentrations of all greenhouse gases and aerosols had been kept constant a year 2000 levels, a further warming of about 0.1 o C per decade would be expected. The best estimate for the low scenario is 1.8 o C (Likely range is 1.10 o C to 2.9 o C) and the best estimate for the high scenario is 4.0 o C (likely range is 2.4 o C to 6.4 o C) by 2100

Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20 th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse concentration. . . Discernible human influences now extend to other aspects of climate, including ocean warming, continental-average temperatures, temperature extremes and wind patterns.

For the next two decades a warming of about 0.2 o C per decade is projected for a range of SRES [Special Report on Emission Scenarios]. Even if the concentrations of all greenhouse gases and aerosols had been kept constant a year 2000 levels, a further warming of about 0.1 o C per decade would be expected.

The best estimate for the low scenario is 1.8 o C (Likely range is 1.10 o C to 2.9 o C) and the best estimate for the high scenario is 4.0 o C (likely range is 2.4 o C to 6.4 o C) by 2100

CRITICAL ANTHROPOLOGY OF GLOBAL WARMING -- CONTRADICTIONS OF CAPITALIST WORLD SYSTEM AND ITS COMMITMENT TO PROFIT-MAKING Growing socio-economic gap within and between nation-states World Bank statistics On-going conflicts in many parts of world Related to states (US, UK, Australia) doing bidding of multi-national corporations Based on assumption planet has infinite resources contributes to depletion of natural resources Treadmill of production and consumption contributes to greenhouse gas emissions Poverty tends to stimulate population growth Strain on resources

Treadmill of production and consumption contributes to greenhouse gas emissions

Poverty tends to stimulate population growth

Strain on resources

JOHN BELLAMY FOSTER – CRITICAL SOCIOLOGIST ON GLOBAL WARMING John Bellamy Foster: The ecological crisis engendered by the capitalist economy . . . threatens the collapse of world civilization, and irreparable damage to entire biosphere from which human society and the planet as we know it may never recover – if current trends are not reversed. The latest scientific reports indicate that global warming is, if anything, increasing faster than we previously thought, leading to fears of unpredictable and cumulative effects and of abrupt climate change. . .The removal of environmental regulations as part of the neo-liberal economics has only served to heighten this ecological crisis” (The renewing of socialism: an introduction, MONTHLY REVIEW 57(3), 2005).

John Bellamy Foster:

The ecological crisis engendered by the capitalist economy . . . threatens the collapse of world civilization, and irreparable damage to entire biosphere from which human society and the planet as we know it may never recover – if current trends are not reversed. The latest scientific reports indicate that global warming is, if anything, increasing faster than we previously thought, leading to fears of unpredictable and cumulative effects and of abrupt climate change. . .The removal of environmental regulations as part of the neo-liberal economics has only served to heighten this ecological crisis” (The renewing of socialism: an introduction, MONTHLY REVIEW 57(3), 2005).

NUMEROUS SOURCES OF GLOBAL WARMING Growing global population clamouring for both basic and prestige resources Growing proliferation of motor vehicles Growing number of aeroplane flights Overheating and overcooling of larger and larger dwelling units Deforestation, animal production, rice production Production of seemingly endless array of consumer products that in part serves to alleviate alienation of social life in modern or post-modern world

Growing global population clamouring for both basic and prestige resources

Growing proliferation of motor vehicles

Growing number of aeroplane flights

Overheating and overcooling of larger and larger dwelling units

Deforestation, animal production, rice production

Production of seemingly endless array of consumer products that in part serves to alleviate alienation of social life in modern or post-modern world

ALLEGED WINNERS AND LOSERS Part of the climate change discourse has been the issue of “winners and losers,” namely some regions and some countries will suffer significant health and social consequences others will, however, benefit from the diverse changes global warming ushers in: Commonly Cited Losers : Countries in West Africa prone to drought under current conditions will face much more severe conditions as the planet warms Parts of central Asia, where temperatures already regularly exceed 40 degrees C, will face even hotter temperatures with painful consequences in food production Increases of more than five degrees C in countries from Kazakhstan to Saudi Arabia, could lead to widespread famine Based on current data on temperature increases four countries that could be among the biggest “losers” in global warming are” Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Sierra Leone and Tanzania Commonly Cited Winners Luxembourg, given its location, could suffer little change Other countries that some analyses say will have limited climate change are the UK, Ireland in the Northern Hemisphere, and Argentina, Uruguay, Chile and New Zealand Minnesota and contiguous U.S. states and parts of Canada (the corn/soybean and wheat belts) are said by some analyses to be likely winners, with increased food production

Part of the climate change discourse has been the issue of “winners and losers,” namely some regions and some countries will suffer significant health and social consequences others will, however, benefit from the diverse changes global warming ushers in:

Commonly Cited Losers :

Countries in West Africa prone to drought under current conditions will face much more severe conditions as the planet warms

Parts of central Asia, where temperatures already regularly exceed 40 degrees C, will face even hotter temperatures with painful consequences in food production

Increases of more than five degrees C in countries from Kazakhstan to Saudi Arabia, could lead to widespread famine

Based on current data on temperature increases four countries that could be among the biggest “losers” in global warming are” Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Sierra Leone and Tanzania

Commonly Cited Winners

Luxembourg, given its location, could suffer little change

Other countries that some analyses say will have limited climate change are the UK, Ireland in the Northern Hemisphere, and Argentina, Uruguay, Chile and New Zealand

Minnesota and contiguous U.S. states and parts of Canada (the corn/soybean and wheat belts) are said by some analyses to be likely winners, with increased food production

WHAT’S WRONG WITH SILVER LINING THINKING Generally, Global Warming Winner/Loser thinking asserts that current wealthier countries will do okay or even do better, while poorer countries will not be able to adapt, will face the most severe weather and other changes, and will do the worst ( Core winners, peripheral losers assumption ). There are at least four primary short comings of Silver Lining Thinking Global warming is not unidimensional, it entails multiple changes of diverse sorts In a global world, disaster in one place has impacts in many places We do not understand global warming to fully anticipate all consequence, including secondary and tertiary consequences, and further down the line consequences. Its not just global warming: other pollution and environmental degradation.

Generally, Global Warming Winner/Loser thinking asserts that current wealthier countries will do okay or even do better, while poorer countries will not be able to adapt, will face the most severe weather and other changes, and will do the worst ( Core winners, peripheral losers assumption ).

There are at least four primary short comings of Silver Lining Thinking

Global warming is not unidimensional, it entails multiple changes of diverse sorts

In a global world, disaster in one place has impacts in many places

We do not understand global warming to fully anticipate all consequence, including secondary and tertiary consequences, and further down the line consequences.

Its not just global warming: other pollution and environmental degradation.

PROBLEMS WITH UNIDEMENTIONAL ANALYSES Water is a critical component of global warming changes. Some location will indeed get more rainfall suggesting increased agricultural production, but will it come at the right time of year? Snowmelt runoff will decrease in many places, significantly so we lose winter and snowfall increasingly turns into to rain. This will mean more runoff in “winter” and less in the spring and summer when it is more likely to be needed for irrigation and other agricultural purposes. And, as seen in the U.S. midwest this summer, more flooding of so-called “winner regions.” Similarly one consequence of global warming is vector movement: new diseases will present challenges for so called “winner regions” Also forested area, like those in northern North America are very susceptible to insect attacks, and songbirds are a major form of insect control. if the birds move further north, as has already begun, forests may be more susceptible to insect attacks, which means more dead wood, which means more fire. The whole nature of the forest can change rapidly.

Water is a critical component of global warming changes.

Some location will indeed get more rainfall suggesting increased agricultural production, but will it come at the right time of year?

Snowmelt runoff will decrease in many places, significantly so we lose winter and snowfall increasingly turns into to rain.

This will mean more runoff in “winter” and less in the spring and summer when it is more likely to be needed for irrigation and other agricultural purposes.

And, as seen in the U.S. midwest this summer, more flooding of so-called “winner regions.”

Similarly one consequence of global warming is vector movement: new diseases will present challenges for so called “winner regions”

Also forested area, like those in northern North America are very susceptible to insect attacks, and songbirds are a major form of insect control. if the birds move further north, as has already begun, forests may be more susceptible to insect attacks, which means more dead wood, which means more fire. The whole nature of the forest can change rapidly.

GLOBAL ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL INTERCONNECTIVITY David Rind of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies: “We may say that we’re more technologically able than earlier societies. But one thing about climate change is it’s potentially geopolitically destabilizing.” We should be cautious about accepting the idea that we can define future &quot;winners&quot; and &quot;losers&quot; in part because countries or regions that appear to be &quot;winners&quot; climatically may find themselves inundated by migrants from so called “loser areas” because of the rise in sea-level and associated disasters, flooding, droughts and agricultural devastation. Will Argentina or northern North America feel like it is winning in a world of mass starvation?

David Rind of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies: “We may say that we’re more technologically able than earlier societies. But one thing about climate change is it’s potentially geopolitically destabilizing.”

We should be cautious about accepting the idea that we can define future &quot;winners&quot; and &quot;losers&quot; in part because countries or regions that appear to be &quot;winners&quot; climatically may find themselves inundated by migrants from so called “loser areas” because of the rise in sea-level and associated disasters, flooding, droughts and agricultural devastation.

Will Argentina or northern North America feel like it is winning in a world of mass starvation?

INADEQUATE KNOWLEDGE Example: Will Minnesota be a winner? One model, developed by David Rind, says no. It suggests that Minnesota and indeed most of the continental United States will experience increasingly frequent and prolonged droughts. It is based on the interpretation that current climate change models underestimate the intensification of drought because they do not use detailed enough models of land surfaces. Consequently, Minnesota may be more like Missouri and Arkansas by the end of the 21 st century, or it may be more like the Mohave Desert.

Example: Will Minnesota be a winner?

One model, developed by David Rind, says no.

It suggests that Minnesota and indeed most of the continental United States will experience increasingly frequent and prolonged droughts.

It is based on the interpretation that current climate change models underestimate the intensification of drought because they do not use detailed enough models of land surfaces.

Consequently, Minnesota may be more like Missouri and Arkansas by the end of the 21 st century, or it may be more like the Mohave Desert.

NOT JUST GLOBAL WARMING Global warming is only one of the manmade environmental threats we face Other include: nuclear dumping, ocean life depletion, notable quantities of pharmaceutical and illicit drugs in human sewage, pesticide pollution, air pollution, plastic pollution, wetland loss, etc. We have termed the interconnectedness of global warming with other adverse environmental changes caused by human activities the pluralea syndrome ( plur , short in Latin for plures, meaning “many” and alea meaning risk or hazards, and syndrome, Greek for “run together”.) The U.S. cornbelt, for example, might have some gains (more so in some places than others) from global warming, that are none the less lost to other environmental destruction like loss of wetlands that absorb water, manmade changes to rivers, and other changes that appear to have contributed to the extensive flood of the summer of 2008.

Global warming is only one of the manmade environmental threats we face

We have termed the interconnectedness of global warming with other adverse environmental changes caused by human activities the pluralea syndrome ( plur , short in Latin for plures, meaning “many” and alea meaning risk or hazards, and syndrome, Greek for “run together”.)

The U.S. cornbelt, for example, might have some gains (more so in some places than others) from global warming, that are none the less lost to other environmental destruction like loss of wetlands that absorb water, manmade changes to rivers, and other changes that appear to have contributed to the extensive flood of the summer of 2008.

To imagine that global warming is a game with “winners” and “losers” may be the surest way to make losers of us all. Kurt Cobb, freelance writer

IMPACT OF GLOBAL WARMING ON HEALTH Appears to be primary impetus behind spread of infectious diseases to environments North & south of equator and upland Heat exhaustion 35,000 deaths in Europe in 2003 Air pollution linked to longer, warmer summers Affects people with respiratory problems (e.g, asthma), weeds & allergies Diseases of global warming Tropical diseases (e.g., malaria, West Nile, and dengue fever) that spread to new places Failing nutrition due to desertification of pastoral areas or flooding of agricultural areas

Appears to be primary impetus behind spread of infectious diseases to environments

Tropical diseases (e.g., malaria, West Nile, and dengue fever) that spread to new places

Failing nutrition due to desertification of pastoral areas or flooding of agricultural areas

GLOBAL WARMING AND SYNDEMICS Global warming is likely to have a significant impact on human (and animal and probably plant diseases). We have all heard about the spread of malaria or West Nile. But there is a tendency to think of individual diseases rather than diseases that interact. The term Syndemic refers to the concentration of two or more diseases or other health conditions in a population in which there is some level of biological interaction among the diseases and health conditions that magnifies the negative health effects of one or more of the comorbid diseases or health conditions. Syndemic theory seeks to draw attention to and provide a framework for the analysis of these interactions, including their causes and consequences for human life and well-being. Syndemics tend to develop under conditions of health disparity , caused by poverty, stress, or structural violence, and contribute to a significant burden of disease in affected populations. The term Ecosyndemics refers to disease interactions produced by global warming or other environmental changes.

Global warming is likely to have a significant impact on human (and animal and probably plant diseases). We have all heard about the spread of malaria or West Nile. But there is a tendency to think of individual diseases rather than diseases that interact.

The term Syndemic refers to the concentration of two or more diseases or other health conditions in a population in which there is some level of biological interaction among the diseases and health conditions that magnifies the negative health effects of one or more of the comorbid diseases or health conditions.

Syndemic theory seeks to draw attention to and provide a framework for the analysis of these interactions, including their causes and consequences for human life and well-being.

Syndemics tend to develop under conditions of health disparity , caused by poverty, stress, or structural violence, and contribute to a significant burden of disease in affected populations.

The term Ecosyndemics refers to disease interactions produced by global warming or other environmental changes.

ECOSYNDEMICS From a syndemic perspective, what is critical is not that diseases move, but rather where, and why they move, and what happens to them in their new environments. Critical questions include: To what degree will they cluster with other diseases in new host populations? Which other diseases will they encounter there? How will they interact with these newly encountered disease counterparts? What consequence will these interactions have for human health?

From a syndemic perspective, what is critical is not that diseases move, but rather where, and why they move, and what happens to them in their new environments.

Critical questions include:

To what degree will they cluster with other diseases in new host populations?

Which other diseases will they encounter there?

How will they interact with these newly encountered disease counterparts?

What consequence will these interactions have for human health?

THE LESHMANIA AND HIV ECOSYNDEMIC One are of concern for ecosyndemics are the “neglected tropical diseases” in that these may begin to spread to virgin terrain beyond the tropics as the conditions that facilitate their diffusion are produced by global warming. For example, global warming already is impacting the global movement of leishmaniasis, a disease spread by sandflies (biting insects that resemble mosquitoes). The most common symptoms are skin sores (that can leave permanent scarring) , lesions can lead to partial or even total destruction of the mucous membranes of the nose, mouth and throat cavities resulting in disabling disfigurement. Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is the most severe expression of this disease . In Europe, the disease is endemic in the Mediterranean region. Existing evidence indicates that the strain known as Leishmania infantum is prevalent only within narrow isotherms, in January (5–(50ºF/10ºC) and July (65-80ºF/20–30ºC). Current models of global warming in Europe predict a dramatic increase in Leishmania in northern Europe

One are of concern for ecosyndemics are the “neglected tropical diseases” in that these may begin to spread to virgin terrain beyond the tropics as the conditions that facilitate their diffusion are produced by global warming.

For example, global warming already is impacting the global movement of leishmaniasis, a disease spread by sandflies (biting insects that resemble mosquitoes).

The most common symptoms are skin sores (that can leave permanent scarring) , lesions can lead to partial or even total destruction of the mucous membranes of the nose, mouth and throat cavities resulting in disabling disfigurement. Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is the most severe expression of this disease .

In Europe, the disease is endemic in the Mediterranean region. Existing evidence indicates that the strain known as Leishmania infantum is prevalent only within narrow isotherms, in January (5–(50ºF/10ºC) and July (65-80ºF/20–30ºC).

Current models of global warming in Europe predict a dramatic increase in Leishmania in northern Europe

THE LESHMANIA AND HIV ECOSYNDEMIC The epidemiology of VL is undergoing importance changes as a result of increasing levels of co-infection with HIV. HIV/VL co-infection is now reported in over 30 countries in Africa, Asia, Europe, and South America. The World Health Organization reports that over 70% of HIV cases in southern Europe are co-infected with VL. In particular, Spain, Italy, and southern France are seeing a growing incidence of co-infection among youth, including those engaged in injection drug use (which may be service as a vector-free route of VL transmission). People co-infected with HIV and VL have a lowered level of immune capacity to contain the infection and keep it from progressing. VL, in turn, has been found to stimulate the replication of HIV. VL/HIV, in short, represents a growing ecosyndemic with potential to spread to many parts of the world as a result of global warming.

The epidemiology of VL is undergoing importance changes as a result of increasing levels of co-infection with HIV.

HIV/VL co-infection is now reported in over 30 countries in Africa, Asia, Europe, and South America.

The World Health Organization reports that over 70% of HIV cases in southern Europe are co-infected with VL.

In particular, Spain, Italy, and southern France are seeing a growing incidence of co-infection among youth, including those engaged in injection drug use (which may be service as a vector-free route of VL transmission).

People co-infected with HIV and VL have a lowered level of immune capacity to contain the infection and keep it from progressing. VL, in turn, has been found to stimulate the replication of HIV.

VL/HIV, in short, represents a growing ecosyndemic with potential to spread to many parts of the world as a result of global warming.

POVERTY, INJUSTICE AND ECOSYNDEMIC According to Olav Kjorven, head of the UN Development Program's bureau for development policy, because of global warming: 600 million more people in sub-Saharan Africa will go hungry from collapsing agriculture, an extra 400 million people will be exposed to malaria and other diseases and an added 200 million will be flooded out of their homes by 2015 Kjorven: “The countries of the world that are the principal culprits, if you wish, for creating this problem in the first place need to act strongly to safeguard the future of those that have done nothing to cause this problem but are the most vulnerable.” Developed countries, meanwhile, are failing to meet their targets under the current climate treaty, the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, for cutting greenhouse gases by 2012, according to the 2007/08 UN Human Development Report. According to the report: “increased exposure to drought, to more intense storms, to floods and environmental stress is holding back the efforts of the world's poor to build a better life for themselves and their children.”

According to Olav Kjorven, head of the UN Development Program's bureau for development policy, because of global warming: 600 million more people in sub-Saharan Africa will go hungry from collapsing agriculture, an extra 400 million people will be exposed to malaria and other diseases and an added 200 million will be flooded out of their homes by 2015

Kjorven: “The countries of the world that are the principal culprits, if you wish, for creating this problem in the first place need to act strongly to safeguard the future of those that have done nothing to cause this problem but are the most vulnerable.”

Developed countries, meanwhile, are failing to meet their targets under the current climate treaty, the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, for cutting greenhouse gases by 2012, according to the 2007/08 UN Human Development Report.

According to the report: “increased exposure to drought, to more intense storms, to floods and environmental stress is holding back the efforts of the world's poor to build a better life for themselves and their children.”

Various corporations, environmental groups, and IPCC advocates of “green capitalism”

Alternative forms of energy: solar, wind, thermal, nuclear, biofuels

carbon trading & carbon off-setting

Accepts notion of continual economic growth

Tend to ignore social justice issues: social inequality

“ GREEN RED” OR CRITICAL ANTHROPOLOGICAL PERSPECTIVE ON GLOBAL WARMING Social systems do not last forever Either local, regional, or global Global capitalism has been around 500 yrs Numerous inherent contradictions Must be transcended to ensure survival of humanity and animal and plant life Well-entrenched system (including within universities) Need for alternative global system One committed to meeting people’s basic needs, social equity and justice, democracy, and environmental sustainability Global democracy, Earth democracy, economic democracy, democratic eco-socialism

Social systems do not last forever

Either local, regional, or global

Global capitalism has been around 500 yrs

Numerous inherent contradictions

Must be transcended to ensure survival of humanity and animal and plant life

Well-entrenched system (including within universities)

Need for alternative global system

One committed to meeting people’s basic needs, social equity and justice, democracy, and environmental sustainability

VISION OF DEMOCRATIC ECO-SOCIALISM Public ownership of means of production Increasing social equality Within and between nation-states Workers’ or proletarian democracy Environmental sustainability Source: MEDICAL ANTHROPOLOGY AND THE WORLD SYSTEM: A CRTICAL PERSPECTIVE. Hans A. Baer, Merrill Singer, and Ida Susser (2 nd edition, Praeger, 2003)

THE EMERGING CLIMATE JUSTICE MOVEMENT Alliance of Small Island States Est. in 1992 at UN Framework Convention on Climate Change International Climate Justice Network Indigenous Forum on Climate Change Inuit Circumpolar Conference Durban Group for Climate Justice Environmental Justice and Climate Change Initiative (US) And other groups around the world

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