Stuff

After their mayoral figures apparently leaked out the Guardian, MORI have also accidently put up their monthly monitor figures on their website which were supposed to have turned up in the Observer on Sunday. The topline figures, with changes from their last poll, are CON 40%(nc), LAB 31%(-4), LDEM 19%(+1). The poll was conducted between the 18th and 22nd April.

While it shows a much smaller Tory lead than the YouGov poll which was conducted at almost the same time, the trend the two polls are showing is pretty much the same with the Labour vote crumbling in the face of the 10p tax row, and in sharp contrast to the ICM poll. Like YouGov MORI have also shown a gradual increase in the Lib Dem vote over the last few months. It’s gone unremarked because of the big Tory leads, but they’ve been creeping upwards.

15 Responses to “MORI’s monthly poll”

These constant POLLS showing the gap widening must be really bugging the last of the Brown followers – but i did warn you it would happen – after 1st May it will be all downhill and just clinging to power for Gordon Brown.

You mention the steady rise of the Liberals ANTHONY – It’s on paper only – as i have said before – the Liberals are not a viable option for voters now – they desperately want a change of government – the electorate know it has to be a 2 way fight.

This means that Mori were spot-on vs the WMA and the WMA now stands at 41:30:18. However since this poll was conducted before the full 10p debacle it may well be a bit behind the curve. According to the retrospectives the C Lead was already 11.6 by the 20th – my guess is that is really about 14-16 by now.

Mike, I used to be of the opinion that it was a two-way fight and that is why the Lib-Dems were polling in the low-teens, now however it is looking less and less like a two-way fight and the Lib-Dems are improving.

1997 was not a two-way fight, it was a one-way slaughter by Labour and the Lib-Dems although on a lower percentage profited with their highest ever modern seat share.

Come 2010 it is becoming increasingly possible that the question will not be the result of the election, but how heavy a defeat Brown will face. This is by no means guaranteed, but is a good possibility.

I suspect in that eventuality of a ‘kick them out’ ’97-style election the Lib-Dems will do better (on seats at least) than in a closely-fought two-party battle ’92-style.

One thing I’ve noticed about the polls is – even on YouGov’s figures, or especially on YouGov’s figures depnending on which you look at – Livingstone is running ahead of Labour’s own share of the vote better than he was in 2004. So can we conclude from this that the reason he might not win is simply because of Labour’s unpopularity, rather than his advisors, or meeting whathisname, etc?

Phillip, so are you suggesting that the tactical voting may go against labour next time. In this case do you think the Tories will win back seats from the Lib Dems in the south that they lost during the slaughter of 1997

Re; The gains the LD’s are showing in the national polls. I remember some commentator, (I can’t remember who!) saying when the LD’s were at 11-12% that that was probably their core vote and their good performance over the last 25 years has been largely down to bad times for the 2 main parties, think how the Alliance ate into Labour in the 1980’s and how the LD’s have profitted off Tory unpopularity since 1992. Now Labour show signs of struggling and the Tories are resurgeant. Obviously the election is still 2 years off but it looks like the LD’s are going to be mauled by the Tories in England and the SNP in Scotland, that is going to be partially offset by gains off Labour. That is where I think the LD rise is coming from, disillusioned Labour voters.

Anthony. What has happened to the very useful summary of each of the pollsters, with graphs? All I seem to be getting now is the pollsters’ blog sites.Hope you haven’t discontinued it- or is it now shown elsewhere?