EIA Updates Projection of U.S. Winter Heating Costs

DOE's Energy Information Administration (EIA) updated its projection
of winter heating costs in the United States in early January,
predicting more severe financial impacts for those using natural gas
for heating. Compared to last year, households using natural gas
will likely pay 34 percent more this winter; back in November, the
EIA projected an increase of only 25 percent. Increases for other
heating fuels stayed close to earlier projections: Propane users
will see an increase of 20 percent over last year, fuel oil users
will see a 43 percent increase, and electricity users should see
their bills go up by 12 percent over last year. Although winter
temperatures have been average so far, the cutoff of oil exports
from Venezuela and sharply falling levels of natural gas in storage
have caused fuel prices to rise rapidly, although those price
increases may not be showing up on heating bills yet. See the EIA
Short Term Energy Outlook.

Meanwhile, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA) reported on January 9th that the current El Nino has reached
its "mature stage" and will linger through the end of spring. That
should bring warmer-than-average temperatures across the northern
part of the country, lowering the cost of heating. See the NOAA
press release.