Energy & Gas: A GOP Opportunity?

Five days after the U.S. Congress recessed for the month of August, an odd phenomenon has occured: Instead of heading home, dozens of Republican members are sticking around Washington, speaking in front of an empty House chamber, with the microphones and cameras off, to make the case that Congress needs to return for a special session to address energy issues affecting millions of Americans.

In a time when virtually every issue, from the economy to the war in Iraq, favors Democrats, Republicans have hit on a political positive they hope can lift their party back into contention this year. But as the Summer driving season comes to a close and gas prices ease off their record highs, the GOP's hopes may hinge on voters agreeing that even gas at $3.50 a gallon is too high, a premise that has not always panned out.

As energy prices rise, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has come under increasing pressure from Republicans and a handful of Democrats to allow votes both lifting the moratorium on new drilling on the Outer-Continental Shelf and allowing drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Lifting both bans, Republicans say, would increase production of energy at home and reduce the need for importing oil from the Middle East. Pelosi has so far ruled out any votes on the matters outside of a larger comprehensive energy bill that may come in September.

Two weeks ago, eleven House Republicans, led by Minority Leader John Boehner, visited ANWR and a renewable energy laboratory in Colorado to highlight their support for the so-called "all of the above" approach to new energy production, and the party got a boost when President Bush lifted the executive ban on offshore drilling, sending oil futures down in the following days.

The energy issue is becoming a factor on the presidential campaign trail as well; John McCain visited an oil production site in California a few weeks ago, and yesterday he visited a nuclear power plant in Michigan, after reversing his earlier opposition to offshore drilling. Even Barack Obama has softened his opposition, saying he would consider offshore drilling as part of a larger energy package. The Democratic candidate also says he backs releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to reduce gas prices, a move Pelosi too has backed.

Democrats opposed to offshore drilling and exploring in ANWR say the real impact on gas prices would be no more than a few pennies, and would go unrealized for as much as a decade. Obama and Democrats also favor forcing oil companies to explore millions of acres of leased offshore space before opening new areas, though oil companies and Republicans oppose that proposal.

Still, the reaction of voters to new drilling proposals has been surprising. Once seen as a third rail akin to reforming Social Security in certain states, voters now overwhelmingly say they favor new exploration. In Florida, a state in which virtually every politician once opposed lifting the federal moratorium, Governor Charlie Crist's reversal on the issue to mirror McCain's, a move seen as pandering in hopes of winning the vice presidential nomination, has turned out to mirror his constituents as well: A Quinnipiac University poll out last week showed 60% of Floridians now support drilling offshore.

Republicans have framed their support for drilling as positive action, including not only new drilling but investment in oil shale processing and alternative energy industries that tap solar, hydro and wind sources.

The party has also characterized Democrats' reaction to rising concern over energy prices as inaction. As Republicans continued to debate alone on the floor of the House, the National Republican Congressional Committee sent press releases targeting twenty five Democrats for voting to adjourn without considering energy issues, and members called on Pelosi and the White House to call Congress back into session.

Too, McCain and his surrogates have taken Obama to task for suggesting last week that fuel efficency could be improved by making sure tires were adequately inflated (Top aide Mark Salter handed out tire gauges reading "Obama's Energy Plan" to the press on board McCain's plane as a gag gift this week).

Congressional Democrats have yet to find an answer that consists of more than a simple refusal to hold votes, which they believe they would likely lose. Pelosi has told House Democrats to run against the party on energy issues if it helps them politically. Obama has gone more on offense, accusing McCain of standing by as part of the problem in Washington while gas prices rose, but his softening position, expressed at a town hall meeting on the economy in Michigan on Monday, shows his advisors, too, would rather the issue were off the table.

But while Republicans look like they are taking advantage of the energy issue, Democrats may not have that much to worry about later this year. Voters favor Democrats over Republicans on the economy, polls show, and that's overwhelmingly relieving news for the party; a recent Pew Research Center poll showed 61% of voters said some economic issue, including gas and energy prices, was the most important factor going into their vote while just 17% said the war in Iraq was the most important problem facing the country.

Gas prices have also declined in recent weeks, thanks to a number of factors including the impending end of the Summer driving season. As prices recede, so too will voter concern over the issue. Democrats found that out in 2006, when the party used the issue during the Summer before gas prices dropped after Labor Day and voter interest turned instead to emerging Republican scandals.

Still, in October 2006, prices hovered around $2.25 a gallon, sixty cents lower than the same price a year earlier following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita and their attending price spikes. Now, cheap gas is any gallon that costs less than $4, a dramatic rise. Even if prices drop another fifty cents, which experts think is likely after Labor Day, prices will be higher on than ever before on Election Day.

But this year could be different. If voters see the GOP as doing something, or even agitating for a solution, while Democrats do nothing, they may reward the minority in November. But if Democrats can convince Pelosi to change her mind and allow a few votes, or take the matter off the table by lumping gas prices in with a larger comprehensive energy bill, the party can turn what looks for the moment like a weakness into a positive among the vast majority of voters who see the economy as issue number one.