Three more Labour MPs have announced this week that they won't be fighting the fight at the next election:

Close Brown aide Nigel Griffiths announced that he wouldn't be contesting Edinburgh South. Neil Hudson is vying with the Liberal Democrats to oust Labour in the seat.

Mike Hall announced yesterday (citing health reasons) that he would be quitting Weaver Vale. Our candidate Graham Evans will now feel more hopeful about overturning the 4,750 Labour majority.

Today Sion Simon has said that he'll be quitting Birmingham Erdington to run for Mayor of Birmingham.

Alongside the Tories' advantage in funding, number of activists, unwinding of anti-Tory tactical voting and targeting on marginal seats, this loss of Labour's incumbent advantage in so many constituencies points to the likelihood that the Tories will get a better seats tally than vote projection models suggest.