Can the Democrats Retake the House in 2014?

The president says his party has a 'great chance,' but the numbers don't bear this out.

Earlier this year, President Barack Obama told donors at a California fundraiser that "It would be a whole lot easier to govern if I had Nancy Pelosi as speaker." A month later at a Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee fundraiser in Chicago, the president went further, saying Democrats have "a great chance of taking back the House."

At the August congressional break, how do the Democrats' chances of winning...