October 13, 2016

October Crop Report - U.S. Corn Yield Lower, Soy Yield Higher

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

In the October Crop Report, the USDA lowered the 2016 U.S. corn yield 1.0 bu/ac from 174.4 bu/ac in September to 173.4 bu/ac in October. The corn harvested acreage is now estimated at 86.8 million acres or up 286,000 acres from their September estimate. Total corn production is estimated at 15.057 billion bushels compared to 15.092billion bushels in the September report.

If verified, the 2016 corn yield will be a new record high surpassing the old record of 171.0 bu/ac set in 2014. Record yields are forecasted for Idaho (215 bu/ac), Illinois (202 bu/ac), Iowa (198 bu/ac), North Dakota (137 bu/ac), South Carolina (130 bu/ac), Washington (230 bu/ac), and Wisconsin (177 bu/ac). The 2016 crop will have the third highest number of ears on record.

In the October report, the USDA increased the 2016 U.S. soybean yield 0.8 bu/ac from 50.6 bu/ac in September to 51.4 bu/ac in October. The harvested acreage was left basically unchanged at 83.0 million acres. The total soybean production is estimated at 4.268 billion bushels compared to 4.200 billion bushels in September.

If verified, the 2016 soybean yield will set a new record high surpassing the old record of 48.0 bu/ac set in 2015. Record high yield in Illinois (62 bu/ac), Indiana (59 bu/ac), Iowa (58 bu/ac), Kansas (45 bu/ac), Kentucky (50 bu/ac), Missouri (50 bu/ac), Nebraska (61 bu/ac), North Dakota (39 bu/ac), Ohio (53 bu/ac), South Dakota (46 bu/ac), and Wisconsin (52 bu/ac). A higher pod count compared to 2015 is forecasted in 7 of the 11 states surveyed for the objective yield data.

Going forward, I think the 2016 U.S. corn yield will decline a little more in either the November Crop Report or the January summary report. It might decline another 1.0 to 1.5 bu/ac. The 2016 U.S. soybean yield is expected to hold steady or maybe increase slightly, but probably no more than 0.5 bu/ac.