How to lose an election

Everyone — pollsters and pundits alike — has now come around to the view that the 2012 presidential election could be close. President Barack Obama is still favored, but it could slip away if he is not careful. Republicans could also blow the election and hand Obama a second term.

Elections are often lost rather than won, particularly when the election is close. So let’s take a look at what each side could do to lose in 2012. We’ll start with the Republicans.

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First, the GOP could nominate someone who can’t win. Most people assume political parties are rational and always select a strong ticket. This is not always true, of course.

Think of the Republicans’ selection of Sen. Barry Goldwater in 1964 and the Democrats’ choice of Sen. George McGovern in 1972. Neither election was even remotely close.

Republicans could fall into this trap this time by nominating a standard-bearer like Rep. Michele Bachmann, former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin or Texas Gov. Rick Perry.

Bachmann is in the process of demonstrating that she is not a serious person by her announced opposition to any effort to increase the debt ceiling, even if the Republicans negotiate a sweet deal from their standpoint. She is willing to risk the U.S. defaulting on its international obligations. Palin, meanwhile, has not been a serious person for years and has done nothing recently to enhance her credibility.

Now, close your eyes and listen to Perry. His accent and word choice sound exactly like the disgraced George W. Bush. The country is in no mood to elect another Texas governor anytime soon.

Republicans could also lose the election by failing to negotiate a compromise with Democrats on raising the debt ceiling. Or by the House GOP voting down a compromise agreement after it has been negotiated by its leadership.

Any default by the U.S. — even in the short term — could lead to financial panic and a deep recession. The Republican Party could pay a heavy price if it were seen as the villain in this drama.