Anthony Weiner said Monday afternoon that he saw no reason to resign from Congress, setting in motion the final act of a political sex scandal: The struggle for survival.

At first blush, he’s got powerful political currents running against him: His initial false claim that he was a “victim” and hours of televised lies, his shortage of congressional allies, his very public persona, and a Republican leadership eager to make the case a partisan test.

But Weiner, who accepted his public drubbing with remorse Monday, appears to have the requisite mix of shame and shamelessness – as well as a wife who, friends say, has remained by his side. And many have survived in office for much more egregious underlying offenses, including some in much less forgiving precincts than a liberal New York City district — such as Louisiana Sen. David Vitter and South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford.

The Queens Congressman did have the good fortune to be busted in an off-year, and in the fast swirl of the contemporary media cycle, some observers thought he might be able to make it up.

“In our day and age, a year and a half isn’t really quick,” said former Republican National Committee research director Jeff Berkowitz. “There’s a lot of time for him to get back to work, focus on his constituents.”

Weiner admitted to “a personal failing” during his press conference in Manhattan and said he would “work very hard” to regain their trust.

He also carefully set up his defense.

“I don’t believe I did anything that violates any law or any rule,” he said. “I don’t see anything I did that violated any rules of the House. I don’t see anything that violated my oath of office to uphold the Constitution.”

Others, particularly Republicans, did.

“Weiner should not be forced to resign because he would be a political problem for the Democrats. Weiner should be forced to resign because his behavior is creepy, wrong, immoral, and unbecoming to the office,” the Republican consultant Curt Anderson said in an email. “But of course, that is an old school and unenlightened perspective.”

It’s unclear to which grindstone Weiner will put his nose. Since his days as the glib spokesman for Senator Chuck Schumer, Weiner has been a fully public figure: He has no major legislation to his name, and no obvious fondness for filling local potholes.

The majority of his time in Congress has been spent either running for mayor, nearly running for mayor or appearing on a string of cable television interview networks – making him a prominent and effective voice for his party, but leaving the notion of a day job sounding hollow.

His role in Congress has largely been filling a niche - the liberal loudmouth, willing to shout down Republicans or embrace things like single-payer health care. That’s not a role that Democrats are going to want him to fill now.

“This means he will not be able to look at running for mayor; serving as a spokesperson for the party or becoming part of leadership,” said former Bill Clinton aide Chris Lehane, who said he thought Weiner may be able to hold on to his seat.

Weiner had been the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination to replace Mayor Michael Bloomberg in 2013; that opportunity seems gone, though New York politicos were already noting Monday night that he’d be a mere 57 in November 2021.

And then there are the details. Weiner denied using public resources, but appears at least to have used his office phone. A congressional ethics investigation—already called for by House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and fellow New York Rep. Steve Israel, the chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee—could make hay of his use of his government phone and computer. The media scramble for other “sexting” partners could turn up women who are younger than Weiner suggested, when he said uncertainly that “they are all adults, at least to the best of my knowledge.”

Weiner, unlike some survivors, is a loner on Capitol Hill. He aligned himself against Pelosi in a 2006 leadership fight, and she bears him no particular love.

But Weiner’s wife, Hillary Clinton aide Huma Abedin, is standing by him, two sources said. That’s an important vote in his favor in the public eye, but it also means the Clintons – to whom Abedin is just short of being a family member – and their allies are unlikely to turn on Weiner.

The other pole of New York power, Weiner mentor Chuck Schumer, also threw his former press secretary a thin lifeline.

“By fully explaining himself, apologizing to all he hurt and taking full responsibility for his wrongful actions, Anthony did the right thing,” Schumer said, with his spokesman saying Weiner’s constituents should decide his fate.

New York State Democratic Party Chairman Jay Jacobs echoed the sentiment.

“I think I’d give this a little time. That’s really between him and his constituents and his family at this point. I think he’s got to have time to gauge the sense of his district. That’s who elected him, that’s who he’s responsible to.”

Weiner may look with some comfort to a long line of men – some of whose sins involve physical contact, and even crimes – who survived and thrived after an initial pounding, a list that includes Bill Clinton (intern), David Vitter (female prostitute), and Barney Frank (male prostitute). Even figures widely assumed to be on the verge of resignation – like former Idaho Sen. Larry Craig, who allegedly solicited oral sex from an undercover police officer – served out their terms.

Others, for ineffable reasons, didn’t survive. The combination of a panicked Republican majority and the pure ickiness of his messages to young men ended the career of former Rep. Mark Foley in 2006. Weiner has also become a drag on his party, which wanted to spend the week talking about Medicare, not his penis. And though his more liberal New York constituents could be more forgiving, he certainly left an online trail with an exceptionally high “ick” factor.

But two particularly relevant examples may be governors. One, Eliot Spitzer, resigned in a flash of shame and charges of hypocrisy. Many New York Democrats now believe he could have hung on.

“The decision to resign is a deeply personal one,” Spitzer said on his CNN show last night.

One veteran Spitzer insider said that there are lessons to be drawn from the former governor - mainly that he departed too fast.

“Eliot could have survived. He can survive,” the person said.

The other case is that of Sanford, whose infidelity was more traditionally consummated, and whose press conference rivaled Weiner’s for sheer public emotional pain.

One former Sanford aide, Joel Sawyer, noted that at least the former South Carolina governor had not lied on camera.

“Love him or hate him, Mark Sanford never tried to obfuscate anything – he went too far in the opposite direction – he told the truth to a painful level of detail,” he said.

But Sanford’s former chief of staff, Scott English, said Weiner can take comfort from the parallel.

“If it’s personal indiscretion, voters can be forgiving,” he said, noting that Sanford departed with a 55 percent approval rating.

Sanford’s ex-wife, Jenny, told POLITICO she saw another echo in the case.