Archive for June 2012

Well, the first poll post-Fiscal Compact has come out, and it shows some interesting movement.

Figures, and IPR projections, are as follows;

Projected result

%

seats

FG

32.00%

60

LP

15.00%

30

FF

18.00%

24

SF

16.00%

25

ULA*

2.90%

5

GP**

1.85%

0

OTH*

14.25%

22

** GP assumed to be at GE11 levels

* ULA and OTH assumed to be at the same proportion as in GE11

It’s late and I’ve already had a long weekend, so I’ll not be saying much. But the only movement matching the margin of error is the 3% drop in SF voters. This could be due to a number of factors, but it does suggest the possibility that their increased coverage during the referendum – in order to ensure 50/50 coverage for both sides of the campaign – artificially boosted their rating, and having reverted to the level of coverage of, say, the Labour Party, that boost is starting to fade (and relatively quickly). Time will of course tell, and there is a long time to go to the next GE, and much will happen between now and then.

FG will be pleased to be marginally up (+2%) on the previous poll. Similarly Labour, who on these figures would come second on seats, by a reasonably comfortable margin. They had been behind SF (and in some instances FF) in seats in previous polls, and so they will be pleased with this.

FF will be happy enough I suspect. Martin did well in the recent referendum, and it appears that their bump from that campaign has shown greater resilience than that of SF.

Finally….OTH 1% up…..which suggests that the Mick #Wallets fiasco has not deterred people from voting for “like-minded” independents.