Citron Research $15 BBRY price target

The main thesis is that other analysts are still looking at BlackBerry as a handset maker, with success dependent on recapturing the Candy Crush set lost to iPhones.

The author argues that Chen's emphasis on MDM and the product superiority of BES 10 is compelling. BES 10 customer reviews from Google Play are shown, along with an eyebrow-raising quote from John Scully.

Discussions of QNX, BBM, and the BBRY patent portfolio are also presented.

I found the case to be compelling and well-argued. I do think the author was a bit hand-wavy when it came to BlackBerry's handset business, implying it had _all_ gone to Foxconn. Still, the first sentence in the Conclusions is worth quoting here:

"Our readers will know that Citron does not undertake a long position in any stock often."

Yes, that's true -- what I meant was that if one is to be successful at it, one needs to spend a good bit of time trying to understand the dynamics of a particular stock -- what drives the price, (tech news, such as Microsoft announcing their arrival in the multi-platform EMM biz, geopolitical events, rumors, executive suite shake-ups), how sensitive the stock price is to those drivers, etc. I have decided I can't really do a good job of trading, so I don't.

BBRY does seem pretty range-bound, so you could probably do a decent job of buying and selling in that range without watching it too hard, but breakouts can happen any time.

Not that I want to rain on your enthusiasm for Blackberry, but relying solely on select positive comments to justify investing in the company is dangerous. You need to look not only at other points of view but the larger sentiment of the market. Financial reports, geo-political issues, sector momentum, and news about competitors are just a few of the many things that also have to be considered if you play the individual stock game. Both fundamental and technical analysis should be considered. In short it takes a lot of time and expertise to put together the best strategy. That is why I prefer funds to individual stocks. This is (partially) what I see when I get to the Blackberry summary page on my investment site:

To rely on the far and few positive statements on BB to justify investing in the company is like relying on studies that deny global warming even though the vast majority of studies show it is occurring (and let's not start a debate about that here,,,). Do not reject any negative sentiment about the company like has been done so many times here. Remember the hate on Canaccord and James Faucette here last year? Were they wrong?

Many experts recommend investing in 10-15 stocks to minimize risk. Investing in a few can indeed result in big gains...or big losses. Also keep in mind that you can still "hold" BlackBerry stock while minimizing your risk by using a fund. My portfolio is made up entirely of actively-managed funds with low expense ratios (below $1.00). One of them is the PRIMECAP Odyssey Agressive Growth Fund (POAGX). Yesterday (5/23), it went up $0.17 while Blackberry went down $0.05. Why do I mention this? Because BlackBerry is the second largest holding of the fund. I want BlackBerry to increase in value as much as anyone here but I know that there are other holdings in that fund that will offset any losses that BlackBerry stock price may incur. I don't have time to analyze individual stocks all day like a pro trader so I prefer to invest in funds and just let them ride long-term. I know the funds are diversified and there are managers that actively buy and sell based on their expertise. I invest any dividends I receive back into the funds. It has taken a small hit lately over the last few months but that's mostly due to biotech momentum stocks.

My point is this: Before investing in individual stocks with your hard-earned money, make sure you get the complete picture and you examine all your options. Don't rely solely on the analysis of a few bullish analysts. Listen to the bears also. If you only have a little money to invest but want to minimize your risk while still holding Blackberry stock, consider a fund that invests in the company. That way, you don't have to ride the roller coaster of the stock going up and down on a daily basis.

Remember the hate on Canaccord and James Faucette here last year? Were they wrong?

I'd say they were successful in making a self fulfilling prophecy come true than being "correct".

It was extremely easy to spin bad news because BlackBerry's release dates were consistently at the tail end of market analysis. I believe they were raising their sales estimates while also blasting the stock.

I'd say they were successful in making a self fulfilling prophecy come true than being "correct".

It was extremely easy to spin bad news because BlackBerry's release dates were consistently at the tail end of market analysis. I believe they were raising their sales estimates while also bashing the stock. The bulls were just trying to make sense of it all.

What the bulls were guilty of more was not gauging BlackBerry's headwinds or the level of disgust the market (and former users) had for the company. The CEO's poor performance at the launch event and inability/failure to answer questions that he had to have known Wall Street wanted to know should've been warning to the bulls. Unfortunately most of those warnings were met with steep drops before market opening on ER dates.

Not that I want to rain on your enthusiasm for Blackberry, but relying solely on select positive comments to justify investing in the company is dangerous.

Anyone seeking sound investment advice should look somewhere other than a Mobile Nations blog, don't you think..? I made the original post to draw readers' attention to one opinion and added my conclusions.

Were I presuming to dispense advice about sound investment practices, such as the merits of investing in funds rather than individual stocks, well... that would be a bit off-topic, don't you think?

Originally Posted by exiledcanadian

My point is this: Before investing in individual stocks with your hard-earned money, make sure you get the complete picture and you examine all your options.