Independent polls this year have shown the Republican incumbent with a five- to 15-point lead over Democratic challenger Ed FitzGerald, enough to confidently name him the frontrunner.

Still, Kasich failed to win a majority of votes in the 2010 election, likely thanks to the four percent of votes cast for Libertarian and Green party candidates. He has failed to receive a favorability rating of more than 48 percent at any time during his term as governor. Kasich's future in politics depends on more than just eking out a win in this November's election. If he wants to become a serious presidential contender, he'll need to win with gusto in the quintessential swing state he calls home.

2. Will Democrats rally behind FitzGerald?

Down in the polls and behind 5-to-1 in campaign cash, one of FitzGerald's strategies is clear: Focus on turning out the swaths of voters who he says have reason to be angry with Kasich.

He's reminding unions and teachers about Kasich's support for Senate Bill 5, which limitedcollective bargaining for public employees before a voter referendum overturned the law. By releasing his own energy policy, he hopes to drum up support among green-energy companies and advocates angry over Ohio's recent freeze on renewable-energy standards. He and abortion-rights activist Sharen Neuhardt, a Dayton attorney who is FitzGerald's running mate, have spoken out against efforts to take away health-care money from Planned Parenthood, hoping to turn out women who disapprove.

FitzGerald has long insisted he'll have the money he needs to get his message to enough Ohioans. Kasich "needs to raise a lot of money because people don't agree with him on issues," he told The Enquirer this winter. A Republican spokesman responded FitzGerald was living "in a fantasy."

3. Can facial recognition, pay-to-play accusations hurt Mike DeWine?

With access to campaign and personal money galore, plus a massive poll lead and an established political name, DeWine has at times seemed unassailable as attorney general.

But DeWine, a former U.S. Senator, has some blemishes on his tenure as attorney general. Last year, an Enquirer investigation revealed the Republican incumbent's office launched a facial recognition system without informing the public and without first reviewing security rules for the software. More than 26,000 police and court employees were able to scan driver's license photos and police mug shots to identify crime suspects. The office started making changes in security and access, but many of those were slow to take effect.

The former Hamilton County commissioner is a long-shot by any measure. The Ohio Democratic Party routinely releases polling they've commissioned that shows their candidates within striking distance of their Republican opponents – and, at least in the case of FitzGerald, closer than independent polls indicate. But the party hasn't released polling data for Pepper's race since August. That's when results showed DeWine with a 46-percent-to-32-percent lead over Pepper.

Pepper has cited analysis commissioned by his campaign that says DeWine will struggle to gain any more voters than he already has, leaving a small window for the Anderson Township Democrat to pull ahead.

Possible? Definitely. Probable? Pepper needs a perfect campaign.

5. Will Dave Yost pick up the fundraising pace?

The Republican auditor has struggled to stay ahead of his challenger – never a good sign for an incumbent, and certainly not in an environment expected to favor the GOP. In the last fundraising period, he raised only 19 percent more than Democrat John Patrick Carney.

In total, last month he had $1.1 million on hand, compared with Carney's $736,000. All the other Republican statewides had at least double their opponents' campaign cash.

If Kasich runs away with the governor's election, Yost will benefit. But he needs to be careful: He has struggled with name recognition, so he needs the money. And he may not have enough.

6. Does it matter whether voters know Carney?

Do you recognize the name of Yost's Democratic challenger? Think you might, but just can't put your finger on how?

Chances are, you don't know John Patrick Carney. (No, his father isn't John Carney: That's a Democratic U.S. representative from Delaware – and it's also the name of the writer / director of the 2006 film "Once." Neither man is related to the auditor candidate. And let's be honest: You probably don't know who those guys were, either – but nice try.)

But Irish-Catholic names do well in Ohio, an advantage Carney is playing up with his green campaign logo. With the auditor's position already an unknown in much of the state, and Yost's struggles in fundraising, Carney's name may provide just the edge he needs in November.

7. Will Jon Husted make a fatal error?

Democrats have so far struggled to find ammunition to use against the Republican secretary of state.

He is his party's loudest voice for redistricting reform, even though the process allowed Republicans to draw Statehouse districts to their advantage in 2011. He supports online voter registration, despite objections from many Republicans. His response supporting a court decision that ordered him to extend early-voting days left little room for Turner to attack.

Even when he said Hamilton County could move its Board of Elections office from Downtown to Mount Airy, he emphasized early voting could take place somewhere else – the kind of careful statement he hopes to use to pave his path to a second term. "They need to find a place everyone can live with," he said.

8. Can grassroots support carry Nina Turner?

If the Democrat is to unseat Husted, grassroots support is the only way. In last month's financial report, she had only $489,000 in her campaign's checking account, compared with Husted's $2.8 million, and she was already spending money faster than she was raising it.

Turner is a strong voice for urban voters who say Republican-authored voting rules will disproportionately affect their access to the polls. She'll need to turn those supporters out in droves to win in November.

9. Will coverage of the Suarez trial hurt Treasurer Josh Mandel?

Even though a jury cleared Northeast Ohio telemarketer Ben Suarez of campaign finance charges, sending him to jail only for tampering with witnesses, the trial painted an uncomfortable picture of Mandel. Although he was never charged with a crime, Mandel sent letters on behalf of Suarez's business and asked Suarez to raise $100,000 for his failed 2012 U.S. Senate campaign.

Will voters remember? Or will Mandel's money advantage over Democrat Connie Pillich allow him to propagate his own anti-corruption story. Just as Mandel took office in 2010, the feds began investigating a kickback scheme involving the Ohio Treasury's investment fees under previous Democratic Treasurer Kevin Boyce. Boyce's deputy treasurer, Amer Ahmad, pleaded guilty in December to bribery and conspiracy.

Ahmad, who had been free while he awaited sentencing, this spring ran away to Pakistan with $176,000 cash. Prosecutors are reportedly seeking Ahmad's extradition back to the U.S.

10. Can Pillich buck the downticket luck?

Republican insiders sometimes point to Mandel as the most vulnerable of the GOP candidates this fall. Voters soured on him after his ill-fated campaign for U.S. Senate in 2012. And that was before the Suarez trial.

But the treasurer's job of overseeing the investment of the state's tax revenue is the least likely to interest voters. With the last spot on the statewide ticket, much of Pillich's performance will depend largely on voter turnout for FitzGerald.

Plus, Mandel is a prolific fundraiser and already enjoys a 2-to-1 campaign money advantage over Pillich, a Montgomery Democrat. She'll struggle to have the money necessary to make her message to swing voters louder than his. •

Key dates this election season

Oct. 6 Deadline to register to vote

Oct. 7 Early-voting / absentee voting starts

Nov. 1 Applications for absentee ballots must be received by Board of Elections at noon