Composite Projections Have Arrived!

Hi folks,

Attached is the first draft of this year’s composite projections, representing the average projection from 11 different providers. That’s down from the 16 sources we used last year, but still a very large sampling of what various systems expect for this upcoming season. This spreadsheet includes all players who were included in at least six (that, is more than half) of the 11 systems.

***EDITOR’S NOTE: This is the corrected version, with shortstops included.

* First and most importantly, keep in mind that these are not predictions, and they are not “my” projections… they are averages of projections provided by multiple other systems. So if you think the numbers are too high or too low for any given player, that’s your prerogative, but don’t complain about it here! Adjust the numbers as you see fit, that’s up to you.

* As with all projections systems, playing time is key… these are unadjusted for playing time, so when you see some A-ball player projected for 500 at-bats, that’s a “what if” projection and not necessarily a prediction he will play that much. Adjust playing time as you see fit, and pro-rate all the other stats on the line to match.

* RBI’s are NOT based on the average projections; instead, they are calculated using the “Padden formula”, which is: RBI=(((1B*0.02)+(2B+3B)+(HR*3))*0.6966). This has proven in past seasons to correlate very well with “actual” RBI’s, but feel free to adjust RBI totals up or down as you see fit based on lineup spot, etc. Obviously a player batting 3rd for an NL team is likely to have more RBI’s than a leadoff hitter, all other things being equal.

* Runs and RBI’s are NOT correlated… the average team will have RBI’s on about 94-96% of their runs scored, so the run totals may be adjusted up or down on a team-wide basis to match the projected RBI’s.

* Wins and saves are not adjusted either, so this does not necessarily reflect expectations for relievers moving into starting rotations (Sale, Chapman, Bard, Feliz, etc.) or who will be the closer for each team (i.e., Guerra vs. Jansen). Adjust as you see fit.

* Teams listed are as of yesterday, February 17. The Age column is the player’s age as of July 1, the traditional midpoint of the season.

* The GxP tab includes total games played at each position for MLB and the minors (excluding the Mexican League). Position eligibility on the Batting tab is based on standard roto rules: any position at which the player appeared in 20 or more games in the previous season, or the position where the player appeared the most if less than 20 games at any one position. Players who appeared only in the minors last season are eligible only at the single position where they played the most games.

Here are some older blog posts that help explain how our projections are created, and other useful information on the topic:

Great job but there seems to be a problem with the pitching numbers. I understand this is a composite of 11 different sources but the total wins and losses are 2,994 and 2,933 respectively. Since there is only a possibility of 2,430 wins, why such a disparity in the numbers. Also, I’m sure these numbers don’t include wins or losses from players that are in the bigs for only a few games. Any explanation? Thanks, Ed

I won last years League because of Fantasy 411 advice. Thank you so much and look forward to having as much fun this year. So it starts again, and the commissioner made some changes in my League that are causing me to rethink my two keepers in a 12 team League. He increased the points on HR’s from 5 to 10 points, as well as Grand Slam points from 10 to 20 points. Also he reduced the pitching staff from 5 to 4 starters. I was going to keep Cliff Lee and Hiroki Kuroda, but now leaning toward Tulowitski and Justin Upton. With less to choose from I was thinking At least to have two sure Starters. Here is my team any thoughts on this?

Even if your league stuck with the previous scoring format, I would’ve chosen Tulo and Upton. Now, the decision is even easier. Stud hitters over pitchers, even if we’re talking about an ace like Lee. This is the single most important part of the 411 philosophy!

The 2011 projections listed DoB rather than Age as of July 1, which was nice to have in order to use Excel to calculate any player’s age as of any date. If DoB is something that’s still available in your source data, could it be added back in for 2012 please? Thank you.

Thanks for the advise. I set my keepers to Tulo and Justin Upton giving up my 1st and 2nd pick. One last question… should I make my 3rd pick a pitcher, or go for the next available hitter and then a pitcher in the 4th round? I

Depends on who the pitcher is (if it’s a guy like Halladay, Verlander or Kershaw I’d consider it) but generally speaking, I tend to wait longer before taking my first SP, Even fourth round is a bit too early for my liking.

We’re all very high on Lawrie this year, and he proved during his brief big league time last season that he’s the real deal. That said, I also think that there’s a point when a player goes from being a great sleeper to a risky pick given their expected price tag. It all depends on who you have to give up to get him though. He’s a top-60 player but I’m seeing him go as high as the third round in some mock drafts. In a non-keeper league particularly, I wouldn’t feel very comfortable taking him that early.

Alright dropping Rafeal Furcal (I have shopped him, but no takers {I thought him for Jamey Carroll was a good deal}) and I decided to go with someone who can help my AVG. Which of these can help the most?
Jesus Guzman, Jose Constanza, Endy Chavez, Brian Bogusevic, or Brain Roberts

Constanza won’t even be starting this year, so for the time being he carries very minimal fantasy value. Even though Roberts’ health status is still a mystery, he would be my choice by default. Of course, monitor his progress throughout spring training. If healthy, he could be a difference maker.

Interesting choice I have in a league. We are switching to an auction for this year’s redraft. I can keep 1 of Tulo, Bautista, Braun. That’s my personal order. I figure Tulo would cost the most to get back. Sound like the right plan?

Tough choice as all three are clear-cut first rounders, but yeah, I’d go with Tulo. Position scarcity plays a huge factor as I’m not impressed at all by the depth at SS. It’s better than it has been in years past, but it’s still rather ugly…a lot shallower than 3B, which isn’t that great either.

Glad to be back at it again. How does the overturning of Ryan Braun’s 50 game suspension affect his composite projections? Also, would this development change the updated rankings you guys put out last month? Everywhere I look, Braun has jumped up from the basement to the attic as a guy you must have on your roster. Would you agree?

We’ll be posting another update to the position rankings early next week, so stay tuned for that. Personally though, I think a strong argument can be made for drafting him #1 overall. He carries a slightly more extensive track record of excellence than Kemp and I think his power/speed combo gives him the edge over Pujols. No way would I rank him any lower than #3, but that’s just me!

Love the composites. Thanks as always, Cory! Running those projections against my keepers and league format I get some locks to keep and some guys on the bubble with projected value at or near salary. Would you keep any of these bubble guys on a 9 team NL only 4×4? I could keep up to 2 – but don’t have to. Heyward $26, Ethier $23, Ruben Tejada $1, Carlos Ruiz, or Randal Delgado $1?

In a standard $260 budget auction league, I try for around 175/85 in favor of hitting. In a non-mixed I’d probably adjust it slightly towards pitching…figure 165/95. But each draft is totally different and the key to auctions is to be able to adjust on the fly depending on the market. You might even wind up getting your targeted starting pitchers for cheaper than anticipated if many of the owners in your league decide to pay a premium for the top-tier guys.

I just wanted to get your take on what site you think is the best to join for a keeper league or even just a regular one season league.I am willing to try my hand at a money league or just a for fun league it doesn’t matter much. I have only ever played in yahoo leagues and I’m looking to broaden my fantasy outlook. The keeper league i was involved in fell apart pretty much when the commissioner decided to change the categories again adding 3 negative categories to pitching basically making starters worthless and relievers the most valuable commodity in our league. its pretty bad when Rotowires draft software ranks Grant Balfour ahead of Andrew McCutchen because of the commissioners new categories. thanks in advance.

I prefer ESPN. I’ve found that the live scoring is a little easier to follow than Yahoo and the game in general offers more options if you play in a Custom League. The draft applet runs very smoothly as well. CBS Commissioner leagues are OK in-season but I don’t like the draft applet at all and there’s one major problem with the game in general…it’s not free!

I play in a 10 team 5×5 mixed league where each player is assigned a salary at the start of the season. The salary cap is $260. I am allowed to keep 1 player at last years salary in the round I drafted that player. Can you please let me know who you would keep out of the following: Miggy-1st round at $29, Prince-3rd Round at $22, Reyes-9th Round at $22, Ian Kinsler-11th Round at $19, Curtis Granderson 15 round at $19, and Mike Napoli 16th round at $12….Thanks!

Not really sure why we’re dealing with both rounds and dollar values here but if I had to pick one I’d lean towards Granderson. A lot of excellent options though, particularly Kinsler and Napoli…a strong case could be made for either one of those guys.

Hi all, a bunch of replies specific to questions about the projections themselves…

@Rob and Horatio – I will restore the league column and exact date of birth.

@BDH – CG’s are not included and won’t be. But, we can safely project that Halladay will get a lot and most other pitchers will hardly get any. :-)

@Brad – you are correct on the typo, nice catch! The singles component of the formula should indeed by (1B*0.2)

@Ed Frischer – Wins and Losses don’t add up but then again those are somewhat pie-in-the-sky anyway since they don’t really correlate well with any other indicator, like RBI’s do with XBH’s. Note also that these are “what if” projections in many cases, so if you add this up on a per-team basis you will also see more than 162 games started per team, etc. I don’t think it’s a realistic exercise to try and predict the exact breakdown of 100% of the playing time for each team; however, it is realistic to expect certain players to get a certain amount of playing time. Where that comes from, and at whose expense, we don’t know… but obviously some players on this list won’t play as much as projected. Avoiding them is as much about luck as skill or preparation. (Think Dustin Pedroia in 2010 for one recent and glaring example.)

@Glenn – I’ve been adjusting the projections based on my own expectations for playing time, along with slight tweaks to some stats based on expected improvements, etc. However, those are minimal since I don’t want to meaningfully alter the objectivity of the projections. I will include Braun’s “full season” numbers in an upcoming update.

What’s up everyone. Need some help here. I have to keep 3 players going into this season, and I give up the round I drafted them in last year, minus 1 round. We just started the draft pick rule, so if I pick one of my keepers from last year, it’d be my 1st round, if i pick 2 from last year, it’d be my first and 2nd, etc. Here is what I have:

Hey Guys,im in a head to head and i get to keep 2 and 2 so my 2 SP are R.Halladay and C.Kershaw and my 2 pos players are T.Tulowitzki and im M.Kemp I get the first pick in the snake draft and i dont know if i should go with T.Lincecum or a pos player like D.Pedoria,i know everone like to take SP thanks
Dennis

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