• By the end of April, many Denver area builders had already hit 70 percent to 90 percent of their sales goals for 2015. Nationally, builders were at about 43 percent.

• Buyers are having to wait nine months to a year to occupy their new home after signing a contract, and some builders are now deliberately slowing sales.

• Prices for finished lots — ready to build on, with utilities installed — now are at record highs and in such short supply that single-family permits continue to run at a fraction of historical averages despite robust demand.

In 1994, when the metro area had a population of just under 1.9 million, builders pulled 13,303 single-family permits. For the next 12 years, they pulled 13,000 to 17,000 or so each year.

But with a million more people now living in the metro area, builders pulled just over 8,000 single-family permits last year and may get closer to 9,000 this year and 10,300 in 2016, Perlman said.

Jeff Whiton, CEO of the Home Builders Association of Metro Denver, likens the situation to a driver who creeps along in winter mode even though summer weather invites faster speeds.

“There is a lot of upside potential and everybody has the ability to run faster,” he said, “but they have got these tires with chains on them.”

The lack of finished lots in desirable locations and a shortage of skilled construction laborers are two of the heavier drags on new-home construction.

Compounding matters, condo construction — not included in those single-family counts — is almost nonexistent, which builders blame on the state’s construction-defects laws that have driven up insurance premiums.

“If you look at it, you went through four or five years where people were not only not developing lots, they weren’t entitling lots,” said Carl Nelson, a Centennial-based senior project manager for Newland Communities.

Not only did contractors lay off skilled workers, but so did local governments — and they have been slow to rehire. Developers said they are being told to expect wait times of 18 months on average to get raw land through the city and county approval processes.

In reality, Nelson said approvals are taking 20 to 30 months.

The fourth and final weight is the skepticism among many builders about how long the market will hold up, especially if interest rates increase as the Federal Reserve has repeatedly warned will happen.

A jump in 30-year mortgage rates to 5 percent from 4 percent would reduce demand enough to put a deep chill on the housing market, said Mike Rinner, a senior vice president overseeing Colorado operations of Meyers Research.

“We have to provide housing for more people than we are, but everybody is treating everything with a jaundiced eye,” he said.

Faced with limited workers and land, area builders are targeting their resources on homes in the $400,000-$500,000 range, Whiton said.

In that regard, builders are being measured and logical in their approach, Perlman said. But the long-term problem is that median incomes aren’t keeping pace with rising housing costs, and that gap will only grow over time and need to be reconciled.

With more and more new homes coming in at higher and higher price points, Sinkey has refocused his efforts on trying to find a way to provide homes at under $350,000 that would appeal to singles and empty-nesters.

“If we are going to be relevant and compete and build a home that the majority of people want to buy, we need to go back to the drawing board,” he recalls thinking when he hatched his plan.

That recalibration is coming to fruition this month in Boulder Creek’s Encore Patio Homes series, which includes 98 homes going up for sale at Great Plains in Aurora and another 140 at the Eastlake Reservoir in Thornton.

The quadplex patio homes are smaller, low-maintenance ranch designs with few or no steps. Starting at just shy of $300,000, they also are more affordable than most other new-home options.

With lots so limited, one alternative is to build more expensive homes, but another is to try to build more structures on each parcel, Rinner said.

“Everybody is trying to find a way to get higher density. We are seeing tight land plans with eight or 10 lots on an acre,” Rinner said.

Nelson said what makes the lack of lots and the delays in approving new ones so frustrating is that an opportunity is being lost.

Aldo Svaldi has worked at The Denver Post since 2000. His coverage areas have included residential real estate, economic development and the Colorado economy. He's also worked for Financial Times Energy, the Denver Business Journal and Arab News.

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