We expect the French economy to grow by 1% in 2015 and 1½% in 2016. Although the French government has already taken action to improve corporate profitability, further reforms are needed to maintain economic growth in the medium to longer term.

We expect the German economy to grow by 1¾% in 2015 and 2% in 2016. However, an escalation of the refugee problem, spread of the emissions scandal at Volkswagen to other car manufacturers and more negative news on the performance of the Chinese economy could affect the solid base of the German economy.