About Me

Friday, March 20, 2015

A friend, Dr. Bong Mendoza of the UP Political Science Department, posted yesterday in fb and tagged me with this note,

I agree with Sen. Sonny Trillanes that we should fortify
our garrisons on the islands we actually hold or control in the West Philippine
Sea (sometimes known in China as the smaller South China Sea). However, that will take a lot of money and quite some
time before we can build and deploy minimum credible deterrence systems on
these same real estate.

I commented that I approve of that proposal. More military spending if necessary -- but money should NOT come from additional taxes or additional borrowings. Our public debt
stock is rising by about P350-400 bilion a year, with or without a crisis, with
or without China territorial issue. Additional money should come from privatization of
certain government assets and properties. Like the huge and prime Camp Aguinaldo property in
Edsa.

Another option is that we call on Batman, Spiderman, Superman, the X-Men. Not to fight the Chinese territory grabbers, but to produce and magic money from
nowhere. Then we can have those squadrons of jet fighters, missiles and bombs, battle ships and submarines. By tomorrow or next week. :-)

One of Bong's friends commented that a "Purely diplomatic initiatives aka triple approach
of the lethargic DFA are hollow and ineffectual."

Wrong. China being a communist government bullies
everyone that it can. First in line are its own citizens; no freedom of assembly and freedom of expression, no political opposition. Ordinary citizens are even deprived of access to
fb, youtube, gmail, etc. Second, China Communist Party (CCP) bullies its smaller, weaker neighbors like the PH, Vietnam and Malaysia. Third, it bullies its richer neighbors like Japan, S.
Korea and Taiwan.

China commie government is creating more enemies than friends
with its bullying in the territorial disputes. This alone makes that government weak and susceptible diplomatically. At the UN, APEC, ASEAN + 6, other international fora and arena.

Continued, endless diplomatic offensive at the
international community terrifies bullies and dictators. Belligerence at the South China Sea (SCS) or West PH Sea (WPS) shows one faction of the CCP while another faction wants more trade, more
investments, more capitalism with its neighbors, not more disputes. The
creation of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) shows this faction.

But the noise of armaments suppliers to the PH
government -- they want billions of $ from us, not just a few million $ -- is
being echoed in mainstream media. The populism of war mongering is trying to be
as noisy and deceptive as possible.

Another asked, "Do we have the funds?"

The direct, explicit and categorical answer is NO.
Even without a crisis, even without buying a single new battleship, the PH
government does not have enough money so it is borrowing yearly, around P300 B a year, just to finance various
expenditures (salaries and allowances alone + maintenance/MOOE constitutes
maybe 80% of the annual budget).

Any huge defense spending like "invest more in
fighter planes,missiles and effective ships" as Romeo suggested above,
would mean annual borrowings of possibly P400+ billion a year. And that means
more taxes, more regulatory fees, more fines and penalties, to pay a
fast-rising public debt.

Large scale privatization of certain government
properties, assets, corporations, etc. is the least painful measure for PH taxpayers. But painful for pampered bureaucrats and politicians. PAGCOR
privatization would give the government at least P200 B, from a paper I read about two years ago. Huge prime land of the AFP at Camp Aguinaldo alone including the
golf course, should fetch tens of billions more.

Bong supported my suggestion of more government privatization to raise funds. He even suggested to "s

ell UP Diliman property and transfer to UP Quezon
Province property fronting the Pacific ocean to build a new growth center
fronting the Pacific ocean (or at least map out a 20-30 year transfer to UP
Quezon plan."

This is a diversion from the issue of territorial dispute with China, but I like this proposal as it is related to privatization and military modernization. A fast train connecting Quezon province with Metro Manila would make UP Quezon Province a very exotic campus to teach, study and reside. Tunnels will definitely be
built in some parts of Sierra Madre, the excavated soil and rocks will be used
for land reclamation and expand the land area of that province for more ports and real estate development.

Such train route and operation won't need public
spending, private sector and modern capitalism will be more than happy to
finance that, and make good profit in the future.

Meanwhile, UP should get tens of billions of money and
proudly declare, "Malacanang and Congress, we will NOT be asking money
from you for the next 20 years or more. Use that savings for whatever social or
military spending you wish."

Building tunnels under Sierra
Madre mt range I think is relatively easy now with more modern engineering,
provided the government won't extort too much from private developers. I
remember when MWSS built a tunnel in Sierra Madre to divert portion of waters
from (Umiray?) river in Aurora or Gen. Nakar, Quezon (water just go to the
ocean) to Angat River. That was more than 10 years ago.

My friend who conducted mountaineering training for the
tunnel workers said that the tunneling machines were high tech and fast. As
they excavate soil and rocks, they also plaster the cleared area with cement
and steel.

Land reclamation and land banking + train operation, that
should be big money for private investors. The volume of trade in Quezon as
alternative port should significantly raise PH trade with Japan, Korea, US and
Canada. Cargo ships won't go around the tip of Luzon and go to Manila bay. They
can dock straight at the ports of Quezon.