Economic Potential of Onshore Oil and Gas in New Brunswick and Nova Scotia

Study Released July 04, 2017

CERI Study 165

While Nova Scotia estimates its offshore resource potential at more than 8 billion barrels of oil (BBL) and 120 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of natural gas (CAPP 2017b), the region also has significant onshore oil and gas potential, largely stemming from unconventional resources, particularly shale gas. This study focuses on the economic potential of the Frederick Brook Shale in New Brunswick and the Horton Bluff Shale in Nova Scotia, as well as the existing McCully gas field in New Brunswick.

These resources become more important when increased regional natural gas demands and declining rates of natural gas production in SOEP and Deep Panuke, both expected to be decommissioned by 2022, are taken into consideration. There is an impending supply gap between regional natural gas production and demand. Without a doubt, both provinces are on the cusp of a fundamental change—a nexus point.

This study explores three plausible potential scenarios moving forward: We are Importers, We are Self-sustainable and We are Exporters. Each scenario depicts the influence of high/low natural gas production and whether the current moratorium/ban is lifted or remains in place. Economic impacts taken into consideration include economy-wide impacts such as value-added GDP, jobs created (in person-years) and various forms of government revenue, including indirect, personal and corporate taxation revenues.