About this blog

My name is Bill Hirt and I'm a candidate to be a Representative from the 48th district in the Washington State legislature. My candidacy stems from concern the legislature is not properly overseeing the WSDOT and Sound Transit East Link light rail program. I believe East Link will be a disaster for the entire eastside. ST will spend 5-6 billion on a transportation project that will increase, not decrease cross-lake congestion, violates federal environmental laws, devastates a beautiful part of residential Bellevue, creates havoc in Bellevue's central business district, and does absolutely nothing to alleviate congestion on 1-90 and 405. The only winners with East Link are the Associated Builders and Contractors of Western Washington and their labor unions.

This blog is an attempt to get more public awareness of these concerns. Many of the articles are from 3 years of failed efforts to persuade the Bellevue City Council, King County Council, east side legislators, media, and other organizations to stop this debacle. I have no illusions about being elected. My hope is voters from throughout the east side will read of my candidacy and visit this Web site. If they don't find them persuasive I know at least I tried.

Thursday, December 24, 2015

Sound Transit's ST3 "House of Cards"

The Seattle Times could do the
entire area a tremendous favor by explaining why Sound Transit’s 2016 purported
attempts to get voter approval of an additional $1B funding annually for ST3
extensions is far more likely an attempt to keep finances for the Prop 1
extensions from collapsing like a “house of cards”.

It began after the legislature authorized ST ask voters to
approve ST3 funding with Chairman Dow Constantine’s attempt to garner wide-spread support with his
“vision” for light rail in the area

“What we can do is create light rail to take you where you want
to go, when you want to go, on time, every time, for work, for play, for
school”

He is either mendacious or
incompetent for refusing to recognize the cost of constructing and operating
light rail extensions can only be justified if large numbers of commuters have
access to light rail with the capacity needed to take them where they want to
go.

The ST3 proposal for a second
tunnel and light rail extension to Everett to attract support is an example of
both ST incompetence and mendacity.Incompetence because the second extension is a “belated” recognition the
Prop 1 I-5 extension to Everett will never have the capacity needed to reduce
congestion. Something they should
have learned from a 2004 PSRC document “Central Puget Regional High Capacity
Transit Corridor Assessment” conclusion the Seattle tunnel limited light rail
capacity to 8880 riders per hour per direction.Capacity that could be achieved with an additional 90 buses
an hour without spending a dime on light rail construction.

It’s also mendacious since if ST
were really serious about the 2nd extension why are they continuing
to spend billions on Central Link light rail extensions beyond the UW light
rail station. They surely don’t need two sets of tracks to Everett.They presumably recognize the cost for
a second tunnel with not only tracks but underground stations to accommodate
the 10-or-more-car trains needed to provide capacity would likely be
prohibitive.

Equally either mendacious or
incompetent is the ST attempt to garner support for ST3 with their proposals
for east side light rail.The ST
2040 plans for East Link extensions to Bothell, Woodinville, Issaquah, and
Renton have apparently all been replaced with an ST3 proposal for a separate
light rail line connecting Totem Lake and Issaquah.The 2040 extensions, presumably dropped because East Link
lacked capacity, have been replaced by ST3 light rail very few will
use.(How many riders can one
possibly expect between Totem Lake and Issaquah?)They also attempt to attract eastside support with some
vague promises for BRT along I-405, yet refuse to consider BRT for I-90.However ST makes no mention of
providing the additional P&R lots needed to attract commuters.

The obvious question is why is ST
going through these machinations in 2016 to obtain funds for ST3 extensions
beyond Prop 1’s 2023 completion date.The first answer is they will need the ST3 funding well before 2023 to complete
the Prop 1 extensions. The nearly $300M deficit for 2015 will balloon over the
next few years with increased spending on East Link and Central Link
extensions. However, the
nearly $2B in funds they recently obtained ($1.3B loan and $600M from bonds)
should cover deficits for some time.

The most likely reason for the expedited
2016 vote gives a whole new meaning to “nefarious”; ST plans to shut down the
I-90 Bridge center roadway in 2017. (I’ve talked to people who still don’t recognize that
reality.)ST is
“justifiably” concerned the resulting outer roadway congestion will negate any
hopes of eastside support for ST3.(The most “likely” reason they’ve “delayed” implementing the 4th
lanes on the outer roadway until 2017 is “concern” any demonstration would conclude the
modified outer roadway couldn’t accommodate all cross-lake vehicles.)

The failure to get the additional
$1B annually will force ST to look “elsewhere” for the billions they will need
to fund Prop 1, presumably to a somewhat “skeptical” financial market.Although ST should be asked "What their
plans are without ST3 funds?", the most likely result will be Prop 1 financial
viability will collapse like the proverbial “House of Cards”.

They already face what would seem
to be an “uphill battle” to get voters to approve an additional.5% sales tax, $25 per $100,000 in
property tax, and an additional $50 car-tab per $10,000 vehicle value.(Makes one wonder how that only amounts
to ST's purported $200 per adult.)Any opposition
from the Seattle Times, one of their strongest supporters, would doom ST3.

Again, the Times could do the entire
area a huge “favor” with an “early” opposition to ST3 ending any hopes of
additional local funding for Prop 1 extensions.Doing so before ST finalizes their “where light rail might
go” options in March and launches a very expensive campaign for support would
not only save millions but could lead to ST finally accepting the reality “the
only way to ease the area’s congestion is to provide thousands of parking
spaces near where people live with direct bus service to near where they want
to go”.

About Me

My last elective position was class president for 25 “class of ’57” seniors in Armstrong, Iowa. I received an MS in engineering at ISU, worked at Boeing for 36 years before retiring in 1998. My wife and I moved into our current home in Bellevue in 1967 where we raised two daughters. Three years of unsuccessful attempts to persuade BCC to block EL are available on “extended session” meeting minutes. Copies of many were sent to all the media outlets, legislators, and others to no avail. I’m hoping this Web site will convince east side residents to query their own legislators.