Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza
Rice differed in Washington on February 2 over the potential diplomatic
role of Syria in promoting peace in the Middle East, news agencies
reported. Rice said she hopes Syria "will in fact try and play a
positive role rather than a negative one." Lavrov argued that "Syria
could play a constructive role," adding in reference to Syria and Iran
that "it is counterproductive to isolate anybody." Lavrov said in
Moscow on February 3 that the Russian and U.S. governments "still have
no common vision" over how to solve the Kosova problem, RIA Novosti
reported. "Kosovo is a subject where our disagreement is deepest,
unlike our positions on Iran, Iraq, and the Middle East," he said.
Lavrov added that Russia will seek to persuade the United States to
lift its remaining sanctions against Russian firms over arms sales to
Iran, stressing that those companies have done nothing illegal (see
"RFE/RL Newsline," January 26, 2007). He noted that the United States
"has assured us that it has no plans to wage war against Iran, and that
the presence of supplementary [U.S. military] forces in the region
helps stabilize the situation" there (see "RFE/RL Newsline," January
29, 2007). On February 5, the daily "Kommersant" wrote that Lavrov
presented his trip to the United States to reporters as a success for
Russian policy in the Middle East. The paper argued, however, that he
was "not convincing." It noted also that he had to concede that there
are "hidden forces" in Washington still blocking Russian admission to
the World Trade Organization (WTO). The daily also questioned why
Lavrov now accepts U.S. assurances on its military buildup in the
Middle East after having previously rejected such assurances. PM

On February 4, Foreign Minister Lavrov said Russia no longer considers
the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE)
necessary, Interfax reported. He argued that "a lot of things in the
OSCE have become redundant to us, because the organization has remade
itself in such a way that demand for it is falling" (see End Note,
"RFE/RL Newsline," July 12, 2004). Lavrov suggested that it is
necessary to "take from any [international] organization [only] what it
can give" and not attempt to create any "scheme that will encompass all
of the existing bodies." "The United Nations is an organization that
has not exhausted its potential," Lavrov said. "The Group of Eight
[(G8) industrialized economies] is an example of a flexible union. This
is the core that I would call the emerging collective [international]
leadership," the many differences among its members notwithstanding. On
February 5, Lavrov told visiting EU diplomats there is no need to
create any "supranational organizations" to deal with energy issues,
Interfax reported. He added that Russia does not reject the principles
of the EU's Energy Charter but is actually "fulfilling them." Russia
has repeatedly refused to ratify the charter, which Moscow signed in
1994, and whose Transit Protocol would require Russia to open up access
to its pipelines. PM

The New York-based nongovernmental organization Committee to Protect
Journalists (CPJ) said in a report released on February 5 that Russian
President Vladimir Putin and Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez "embody a
generation of sophisticated, elected leaders who use laws to control,
intimidate, and censor the media," cpj.org reported. The report,
entitled "Attacks On The Press In 2006," noted that Putin signed a
measure in July that "equates journalism with terrorism." The study
added that he and Chavez "tolerate the facade of democracy -- a free
press, opposition political parties, [and] an independent judiciary --
while gutting it from within." CPJ head Joel Simon said in a statement
that since Putin took power in Russia at the start of 2000, 13
journalists have been killed and none of their killers brought to
justice -- a record that "causes reporters to ask fewer questions, to
probe less deeply, [and] to pass up risky stories" (see "RFE/RL
Newsline," September 26 and December 14, 2006). The authorities thereby
benefit from "a state of fear" prevalent among journalists, the report
noted. PM

Attorney and Public Chamber Deputy Anatoly Kucherena said on February 2
that a public organization may be set up in Russia to monitor the
observance of human rights and freedoms in Western countries,
mosnews.com reported. He added that he will draft a proposal to
establish a human rights organization responsible for monitoring the
observance of freedom of speech and the fundamental human rights in the
United States, Europe, and other Western countries. "We are used to
hearing criticism targeting mainly only Russia and remarks pointing to
shortcomings in our country," Kucherena said. "Why not carry out
evaluations of the problem of human rights and the fundamental freedoms
in the [United States] and Europe?" Kucherena nonetheless called on
Western human rights organizations to "come here, interact with us, and
share their experience with us." PM

Vladimir Potanin, who is co-owner of Norilsk Nickel and head of its
parent company, Interros, said on February 4 on NTV television that the
state should support, but not take over, Russian businesses, Interfax
reported. "It is very hard to implement major projects without state
support," Potanin said. "Our competitors have been and will be acting
this way. They are seeking the support of their presidents and the
governments." He stressed that Russia should follow a similar course of
action, but "it is wrong to confuse this with nationalization. Business
should be private, while the state should support it." Potanin said
that his recent break with his business partner in Norilsk, Mikhail
Prokhorov, was long planned, but accelerated by the recent brief
detention of Prokhorov by French police investigating an alleged
prostitution racket (see "RFE/RL Newsline," February 1, 2007). Potanin
appealed to Russians to "behave better" when abroad so as not to
attract such attention. Norilsk has a market capitalization of $30
billion and produces one-fifth of the world's nickel output, Reuters
reported. The news agency described Potanin as a former first deputy
prime minister and Russia's ninth richest man. PM

Konstantin Rivkin, who is a lawyer for jailed businessman Platon
Lebedev, an associate of imprisoned former oligarch Mikhail
Khodorkovsky, was quoted by Interfax on February 5 as saying that
prosecutors in Chita have charged Lebedev with money laundering.
Similar charges were also filed against Khodorkovsky. Lebedev and
Khodorkovsky are serving eight-year prison sentences in Siberia for
fraud and tax evasion. Russian media have suggested recently that the
authorities want to keep both men in prison to prevent Khodorkovsky, in
particular, from taking part in the 2007 parliamentary elections and
the 2008 presidential vote. The media have also indicated that the
Kremlin wants the two out of the way at least until the remnants of
Khodorkovsky's former Yukos oil major have been taken over by state
companies. The authorities maintain they are simply enforcing the law,
whereas Khodorkovsky has denied having any political ambitions. PM

Russian Prosecutor-General Yury Chaika said on February 5 in
Vladivostok that Primorsky Krai, of which Vladivostok is the capital,
is a weak spot in law enforcement and anticorruption efforts, RIA
Novosti reported. "Grave crimes are becoming widespread in the area,"
he told regional law enforcement officials. "Ten percent are drug
related, and no serious progress has been made in tackling them." The
meeting focused on economic crime, particularly on the smuggling of
seafood and timber from Russia to neighboring Asian countries.
Smuggling thrives because of endemic corruption. PM

Police and security forces in Malgobek on February 3 laid siege to and
subjected to mortar fire a top-floor apartment in Malgobek where they
suspected a group of militants was hiding, ingushetiya.ru reported. The
occupants returned fire. When security forces finally stormed the
apartment, they found the bodies of the owner and of an
as-yet-unidentified woman. On February 4, Zelimkhan Merzhoyev, a young
man from Malgobek, killed himself by detonating a homemade grenade in
the village of Sagopshi a few kilometers south of Malgobek after
evading arrest by police who suspected him of links with the militants
killed in Malgobek the previous day, ingushetiya.ru reported. LF

Two members of Lieutenant General Adilgirey Magomedtagirov's personal
bodyguard were killed late on February 3 when their car was blown up as
they accompanied him to investigate the site of a fatal attack on an
Interior Ministry official in Makhachkala, newsru.com and
kavkazcenter.com reported. Magomedtagirov escaped unhurt. The Daghestan
jamaat tried unsuccessfully to kill Magomedtagirov the same way six
months ago, proceeding on the assumption that he would personally
travel to the site of an attack on a local prosecutor (see "RFE/RL
Newsline," August 9 and 22 2006). LF

Daghestan's Central Election Commission declined on February 2 to
register the party lists of candidates for the March 11 parliamentary
elections submitted by the Unified Socialist Party of Russia and
People's Will, kavkaz-uzel.ru reported on February 3. The two parties
reportedly failed to submit the requisite documentation, and some
signatures in their support were allegedly forged. Daghestan's Central
Election Commision earlier barred from the ballot the Communist Party
(KPRF), Yabloko, and the Union of Rightist Forces, but subsequently
rescinded the ban on the KPRF (see "RFE/RL Newsline," January 23, 25,
and 30, 2007). LF

Some 100-150 people gathered on February 2 outside the government
building in Yerevan to call for the release of Zhirayr Sefilian and
Vardan Malkhasian, both members of the Alliance of Armenian Volunteers,
which groups together veterans of the Karabakh war, Noyan Tapan and
RFE/RL's Armenian Service reported. The two men were arrested in
December and charged with preparing a coup d'etat in the run-up to the
May 12 parliamentary election (see "RFE/RL Newsline," December 11, 12,
and 20, 2006, and January 3, 2007). Sefilian's brother, Toros, said on
February 2 that he has requested, but not been granted, an audience
with President Roert Kocharian (also an active participant of the
Karabakh war) and with Defense Minister Serge Sarkisian, whom a third
member of the alliance identified last month as being behind Zhirayr
Sefilian's arrest. Sarkisian has rejected that allegation (see "RFE/RL
Newsline," January 24, 2007). LF

Azerbaijan's Economic Court has upheld a ruling by a lower-level court
on November 24, 2006, requiring the progressive wing of the opposition
Azerbaijan Popular Front Party, the opposition newspaper "Azadliq," and
the Turan information agency to vacate the premises in central Baku
that they had rented for over a decade, zerkalo. az reported on
February 3 (see "RFE/RL Newsline," November 27 and 28 and December 19,
2006). "Azadliq" Editor Azer Ahmedov declared on February 2 he will
appeal the ruling in a higher court, and if necessary in the European
Court for Human Rights in Strasbourg. The three organizations were all
offered alternative office space that they rejected as inadequate. LF

Vusal Garadjayev, an 18-year-old Azerbaijani serviceman taken prisoner
by Armenian forces on December 7, 2006, and released two weeks later,
has been arrested on charges of treason and violating sentry
procedures, day.az reported on February 2 quoting the Military
Prosecutor's Office. LF

Georgian Interior Minister Gela Bezhuashvili and U.S. Ambassador to
Georgia John Tefft signed an agreement in Tbilisi on February 2 on
cooperation to prevent the transit via Georgian territory of nuclear
and radioactive substances, Caucasus Press reported. Work on the
agreement has been underway for seven months. It is not clear whether
it was drafted in direct response to the arrest one year ago in a sting
operation of a Russian citizen in possession of weapons-grade uranium
(see "RFE/RL Newsline," January 25, 2007). LF

Ivo Petrov, the deputy head of the UN Observer Mission in Georgia
(UNOMIG) met in Sukhum(i) on February 1 with Sergei Shamba, foreign
minister of the unrecognized Republic of Abkhazia, to discuss
Abkhazia's participation at a meeting in Geneva on February 12-13 of
the Friends of the UN Secretary-General group of countries that seeks
to mediate a solution to the Abkhaz conflict, apsny.ru and ITAR-TASS
reported on February 1 and 2 respectively. As a "goodwill gesture," the
Abkhaz leadership acceded to Petrov's request to lift a ban it imposed
in December on traffic crossing the sole functioning bridge over the
Inguri River, which marks the border between Abkhazia and the rest of
Georgia, Caucasus Press reported on February 3. Shamba also met on
February 2 with Russian Foreign Ministry official Andrei Kelin,
apsny.ru reported. Shamba said that Abkhazia will insist at the Geneva
meeting that Georgia withdraw its remaining forces from the upper
Kodori Gorge in compliance with the UN Security Council resolution of
October 2006, according to Civil Georgia on February 2 (see "Caucasus:
Are Georgia, Abkhazia Pursuing Diverging Agendas?" rferl.org, January
31, 2007). LF

A joint venture of Russian oil company LUKoil and Kazakh national oil
and gas company KazMunaiGaz has been fined 4.1 billion tenges ($32
million) for unauthorized gas flaring, Interfax reported on February 2.
Amangali Sagatov, a spokesman for prosecutors in Aktobe, told the news
agency that a January 31 ruling by a court in Aktobe overturned earlier
court decisions in Kazakhoil Aktobe's favor and upheld accusations by
environmental prosecutors that the joint venture flared gas in
violation of a ban on the practice. Gas flaring is the burning off of
undesirable gas or other waste. DK

[17] KYRGYZ POLICE ARREST SUSPECTED MEMBER OF ISLAMIC PARTY OF
TURKESTAN

Kyrgyz police on February 1 arrested a 33-year-old resident of the
southern city of Uzgen who is suspected of being a member of the banned
Islamic Party of Turkestan, akipress.org reported the next day. An
Interior Ministry spokesman said that the man, who is a Kyrgyz citizen,
is wanted by Uzbek authorities for alleged involvement in unrest in
Andijon in May 2005, Interfax-AVN reported. The spokesman said police
confiscated weapons and religious propaganda from his home.
Approximately 100 people, including relatives of the arrested man, held
a demonstration outside the Uzgen mayor's office after the arrest,
charging that the incident was a provocation by Uzbek authorities,
akipress.org and news agency 24.kg reported. The demonstrators
dispersed after receiving a warning from local prosecutors. DK

Murodali Ruziyev, chief doctor at Tajikistan's National HIV/AIDS
Center, told Avesta on February 3 that the country registered 204 new
cases of HIV infection in 2006. "A total of 586 men and 124 women have
been officially registered as having HIV to date," Ruziyev said. He
noted that 80 percent of the HIV-positive persons are between the ages
of 20 and 30, with intravenous drug users making up 65 percent of the
HIV-positive total. At the same time, Ruziyev said that 122 cases
stemmed from transmission through sexual intercourse, adding, "Those
people are not just prostitutes and drug addicts, but labor migrants
too." DK

Tajikistan's government has approved a 25 percent increase in the price
of electricity for private households, RFE/RL's Tajik Service reported
on February 2. For monthly usage up to 250 kilowatt-hours, the price of
a single kilowatt-hour will rise from 1.6 to 2 dirhams ($.058), and
from 2.7 to 3.4 dirhams per kilowatt-hour for monthly usage in excess
of 250 kilowatt-hours. Nozirjon Yodgori, a spokesman for national
electricity company Barqi Tojik, told Avesta that the price hikes came
in response to recommendations from the International Monetary Fund and
World Bank in order to make the country's hydroelectric power sector
more attractive to investors. DK

Uzbek survivors of the violence in Andijon in May 2005 have appealed
the refusal of German prosecutors to open an investigation into the
role of former Uzbek Interior Minister Zokir Almatov (see "RFE/RL
Newsline," April 7, 2006), Human Rights Watch (HRW) announced in a
February 2 press release on the organization's website
(http://www.hrw.org). In an appeal submitted last week to a court in
Stuttgart, a lawyer representing survivors of Andijon argued that
German law's principle of universal jurisdiction for crimes against
humanity obligates prosecutors there to investigate Almatov's
activities even though the former minister is no longer physically
present in Germany. "Germany's universal jurisdiction law was adopted
to help survivors of serious atrocities who have no hope of getting
justice at home," Holly Cartner, Europe and Central Asia director at
HRW, commented. "By refusing to use this law, Germany's federal
prosecutor has exacerbated the environment of impunity that exists for
foreign officials accused of crimes against humanity." DK

Two activists of the unregistered opposition organization Youth Front
have allegedly been taken into custody after a special police unit
detained some 30 members of the organization in Minsk on February 4,
RFE/RL's Belarus Service reported. Most of the detentions were made at
a private apartment where the group was meeting. All the detainees,
apart from Aleh Korban and Zmitser Khvedaruk, were released late in the
evening on February 4. JM

President Alyaksandr Lukashenka on February 2 instructed the government
to build a new space satellite in 2 1/2 years, Belapan reported. Belka,
Belarus's first-ever space apparatus, was lost during a failed launch
attempt at the Baikonur cosmodrome in Kazakhstan on July 26, 2006 (see
"RFE/RL Newsline," July 27, 2006). The new satellite will reportedly
cost $18 million, $2 million more than Belka. It will be part of a
Belarus-Russia satellite network, providing mapping data for agencies
working on the ground. Lukashenka said at a government conference on
February 2 that the new satellite's image resolution will be 2.1
meters. JM

Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko said in Kyiv on February 2 that
it is too early to talk about setting up any joint venture with Russia
to manage Ukrainian gas-transit pipelines, Reuters and Interfax-Ukraine
reported. Russian President Vladimir Putin disclosed the previous day
that Ukraine had made an offer of a "revolutionary character" to unify
both countries' gas-transportation systems in exchange for a share in
Russia's gas-drilling sector (see "RFE/RL Newsline," February 2, 2007).
"Everything that is related to modifying the [Ukrainian
gas-transportation] model requires a very thorough and cautious
approach," Yushchenko told a news conference. "It is difficult to speak
about this because we need to debate the principles of organizing our
relations and methods to implement initiatives. I would not mention any
percentages or shares in any plants today because we are far away from
this." The same day, Yuliya Tymoshenko, leader of the eponymous
opposition bloc, announced that her bloc will prepare a bill to ban
what she called "manipulations around our gas-transportation system in
exchange for some sort of bait." "We are going to put forward a secure
shield against attempts to appropriate our gas-transportation system or
entire Naftohaz [Ukraine's gas and oil monopoly] by shrewd businessmen
from the Russian Federation," she added. JM

President Yushchenko and visiting Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbaev
signed a Ukraine-Kazakhstan Action Plan for 2007-08 in Kyiv on February
2, Ukrainian media reported. The document provides for holding a Year
of Kazakhstan in Ukraine in 2007 -- an event that Nazarbaev officially
inaugurated in Kyiv -- and a Year of Ukraine in Kazakhstan in 2008. It
also stipulates intensifying bilateral cooperation in the fuel and
energy sector, in particular, through the construction of
power-engineering facilities, the expansion of oil-pipeline networks,
and participation in oil-and-gas development. JM

After 15 rounds of direct talks between Serbian and Kosovar negotiating
teams over the past year, UN special envoy Martti Ahtisaari on February
2 presented his proposals for the future of Kosova, international media
reported. The proposed settlement, released to the media on February 2
by the United Nations Mission In Kosovo (UNMIK), refers neither to
independence for Kosova nor to Serbian sovereignty and, in comments to
the media, Ahtisaari stressed the document is still open to
"constructive amendments." He invited the two negotiating teams to meet
with him on February 13 to continue talks. Ahtisaari will present his
proposal to the UN Security Council in late March, at which point he
said he would be "duty-bound" to address directly the issue of Kosova's
formal status. Under Ahtisaari's proposals, Kosova would gain its own
constitution, institutions, flag, and army, and would "have the right
to negotiate and conclude international agreements, including the right
to seek membership of international organizations." However, NATO and
the EU would retain a military and police presence in Kosova, while an
EU-selected envoy of the international community would have the power
to intervene in government. The proposal, described as "supervised
independence" in a range of international media, envisages strong
protections for ethnic minorities and their cultural heritage and
official status for the Serbian language. Under the settlement, Kosova
would make "no territorial claims against, and [would] seek no union
with, any state or part of any state," a principle that seeks to allay
regional fears about the emergence of a Greater Albania and would
appear to block Serb areas from joining Serbia. AG

Kosovar Albanian leaders expressed general satisfaction with the
proposals. Kosovar Prime Minister Agim Ceku told Kosova Albanian
KohaVision television on February 2 that "the way [UN envoy] Ahtisaari
describes Kosova is nothing less than a sovereign country, an
independent country," though the proposal "nonetheless does not meet
all our expectations, our demands." He subsequently told local and
international news agencies that "Kosova is definitely running the last
mile toward independence." Ceku said he hopes the UN will in April
recognize Kosova as independent, but added that his government will not
make a unilateral declaration of independence. Kosovar President Fatmir
Sejdiu said an independent Kosova will guarantee the safety and the
rights of the Serbian minority, which currently numbers about 100,000.
Oliver Ivanovic, the only Kosovar Serb to meet with Ahtisaari when he
presented his plan, told Serbia's Radio B92 on February 3 that the
proposal is too "vague" to go before the UN in its current form, and he
urged Serbia to form a new government quickly in order to continue with
negotiations. The leader of the hard-line Serbian National Council,
Milan Ivanovic, called the plan "a sort of political terrorism,"
asserting that it "does not at all differ from the positions held by
the Albanian negotiation team." Ivanovic also predicted protests
throughout Serb-dominated areas, Radio B92 reported on February 5. The
security situation in the UN-administered province remained calm,
though Radio Television Serbia reported on February 2 that a dozen
youths threw stones at an elementary school in the Serb-dominated
north. In the run-up to the proposal, Oliver Ivanovic predicted a war
"sooner or later," while the commander of NATO forces in the region
warned about the possibility of violence spilling over into the
southern Serbian province of Presevo and into Macedonia (see "RFE/RL
Newsline," January 31 and February 2, 2007). AG

Ahtisaari's plan was universally rejected by Serbia's leading
politicians. Serbian Foreign Minister Vuk Draskovic accused Ahtisaari
of proposing independence for Kosova, President Boris Tadic said the
proposal set a "dangerous precedent" and reiterated that "Serbia and I,
as its president, will never accept Kosovo's independence," while Prime
Minister Vojislav Kostunica, who refused to meet Ahtisaari on February
2, said the UN envoy has no mandate and declared his plan
"illegitimate." One of the strongest critiques came from the Serbian
Orthodox Church, which, in February 2 comments carried by B92, called
the plan "legal violence against Serbia," and called on the
international community to prevent Ahtisaari "in his dangerous
intention to, on behalf of someone, take the most precious part of its
territory from Serbia, one of Europe's oldest states." Kosova has
emerged as a key issue in talks about the formation of a new
government, following elections held on January 21. Kostunica's Popular
Coalition has warned of "serious consequences" for any country that
recognizes Kosova as independent, and the importance of the issue was
underlined in a February 1 interview with the Serbian newspaper
"Vecernje novosti" when a Kostunica adviser, Vladeta Jankovic, called
the bloc's stance "the last line of defense of the country's
sovereignty" (see "RFE/RL Newsline," February 1, 2007). Officials from
other parties have been critical of Kostunica's hard-line position. AG

Albania and Macedonia, which fought a brief campaign against ethnic
Albanian separatists in 2001, both welcomed the Ahtisaari plan.
Albanian Foreign Minister Besnik Mustafaj praised the proposal, saying
that "this moment marks the emergence of Kosova from the so far de jure
sovereignty Serbia had over it," the Albanian news agency ATA reported
on February 2. Macedonian Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski said the
proposal is "acceptable" and Foreign Minister Antonio Milososki said
the settlement would end conflicts in the Balkans, local media
reported. Milososki added that "Yugoslavia's dissolution was incited by
the Kosovo crises in 1981 and would be now wrapped up with the
resolution of the Kosovo problem," the news agency MIA reported on
February 2. The three-member Presidency of Bosnia-Herzegovina did not
comment, but Milan Jelic, the president of the Bosnian Serb-controlled
Republika Srpska, said the status of Kosova is an internal Serbian
matter that should be decided by Belgrade and Pristina, the SRNA news
agency reported the same day. AG

The European Union, which would play the key international role in the
region under the Ahtisaari proposal, and the United States both
reiterated their support for the plan, international media reported.
However, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told the German paper
"Der Spiegel" in an interview published on February 3 that "every
attempt to submit those proposals in the Security Council will be in
vain and counterproductive." Lavrov also said, though, that Russia
would not apply a veto. Lavrov particularly criticized the proposal for
not adequately addressing the issue of ethnic Serbs displaced since
1999. UNMIK says 16,000 refugees have returned since 1999. UNMIK
estimates that more than 220,000 displaced persons and refugees are
still living in Serbia and Montenegro (see "RFE/RL Newsline," February
2, 2007). AG

The Russian state-owned oil company Zarubezhneft on February 2 bought
majority stakes in Bosnia's only oil refinery, Bosanski Brod, and in
lubricant producer Modrica and fuel retailer Petrol. The sales will
raise a total of 121.1 million euros ($157.7 million), Reuters and the
Republika Srpska news agency SRNA reported on February 2.
NeftegazInKor, the subsidiary through which Zarubezhneft bought the
three companies, is also expected to plow nearly 1 billion euros into
the companies over the next four years to pay off debts, improve
production, and upgrade transportation infrastructure. Bosanski Brod
has the capacity to meet 80 percent of the country's refinery needs,
but it has produced little for most of the past decade. The deals now
need the approval of the country's antimonopoly authorities. Milorad
Dodik, the prime minister of Republika Srpska, one of
Bosnia-Herzegovina's two autonomous regions, called the agreements "a
significant gain for the Serbian republic" and said that NeftegazInKor
has promised to pay wage arrears and not to lay off staff. The
Republika Srpska leader signed the contracts because, under the terms
of the treaty that ended the 1992-95 war, the country's two autonomous
entities run their own economic policies and have the right to
privatize state-owned companies in their region. AG

U.S. General Dan McNeill assumed command of the 35,000-member NATO-led
International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan at a
ceremony in Kabul on February 4, international news agencies reported.
McNeill previously commanded the U.S.-led coalition forces in
Afghanistan from 2002 to 2003 and is scheduled to lead the NATO-led
force for one year. "We will quit neither post nor mission until the
job is done and we are properly relieved," McNeill said during the
ceremonies to mark the handover of command from British General David
Richards, according to "The New York Times" on February 5. In his
speech, Richards warned that victory in Afghanistan requires more than
just a military solution. He cited the need for more reconstruction and
development, as well as the assumption by Kabul of responsibilities
like good governance and improved relations with neighboring Pakistan,
which Afghanistan has accused of supporting the neo-Taliban. AT

Hours before the United States assumed command of ISAF on February 4,
NATO launched an aerial attack on Musa Qala in Helmand Province,
targeting the Taliban who took control of the town on February 2,
Peshawar-based Afghan Islamic Press (AIP) reported. A resident of Musa
Qala told AIP that two bombs were dropped near the main market in the
town. U.K. forces struch a deal with local elders and left Musa Qala in
October after suffering higher-than-expected casualties (see "RFE/RL
Newsline," October 18, 2006). Former Helmand provincial security
commander and current Wolesi Jirga (People's Council) member Dad
Mohammad told AIP on February 3 that the "Taliban were in total control
of Musa Qala" at the time of the October deal, adding that "everything
said about an agreement [with local elders] has been a lie." His
statements followed an ISAF press release the same day that said
"reports were received that an unknown number of Taliban entered the
Musa Qala district center." AT

Qari Mohammad Yusof, speaking for the Taliban on February 4, proposed a
new peace deal with NATO over Musa Qala, AIP reported. "We want total
security to prevail in Musa Qala," Mohammad Yusof told AIP. "It was for
this reason that we left Musa Qala last time [October 2006] at the
request of local elders.... However, NATO did not observe the agreement
and carried out bombing raids in Musa Qala several times." The Taliban
spokesman went on to say that "once again we propose a security
agreement, provided that local elders can give us firm guarantees that
there will be no more" bombings or other military operations in the
district and that NATO and Afghan military forces are barred from
entering the area. Mohammad Yusof warned that Taliban fighters in Musa
Qala will defend themselves if attacked by NATO or other forces. AT

In a press release on February 3, the New York-based International
Central for Transitional Justice (ICTJ) criticized a recent decision by
the Afghan lower house to grant full amnesty to all parties involved in
more than two decades of conflict in Afganistan. The ICTJ said that by
offering "an amnesty to a broad range of perpetrators," the Wolesi
Jirga's (People's Council) resolution "contravenes Afghanistan's
obligations to pursue accountability for serious human rights abuses."
The group charged that Afghan President Hamid Karzai would "break his
recent promise to pursue justice and fight impunity" if he signed the
bill into law. "A genuine desire for peace must be expressed by
addressing the needs of victims, not by promoting impunity," Marieke
Wierda, head of ICTJ's Afghanistan program, said. Backers argue that
the Wolesi Jirga adopted the resolution, called "National Stability and
Reconciliation," in the interest of peace and security (see "RFE/RL
Newsline," February 2, 2007). AT

A website purporting to represent the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan --
the name of the country under the Taliban -- posted a statement on
February 3 rejecting the Wolesi Jirga's wartime-amnesty resolution. The
amnesty decision not only grants full amnesty to all sides in the
Afghan conflict, but also extends a blanket amnesty to all opponents of
the current Afghan government if they end their fighting (see "RFE/RL
Newsline," February 1, 2007). The Taliban has consistently rejected any
suggestion of talks with either Kabul authorities or "the foreign
invaders." The statement called the Wolesi Jirga resolution illegal and
said it contradicted Shari'a, adding that the Taliban will never
forgive people who "entered Kabul with [the aid of] American aircrafts"
and "invited the Americans" to occupy Afghanistan. The statement added
that the Afghan nation will never grant amnesty to those who have "sold
the Afghan identity and the country's independence." AT

Gholamreza Aqazadeh, the head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization,
said in Tehran on February 4 that "we think" that UN Resolution 1737
targeting Iran's atomic program "has serious legal and executive
problems" and added that "we said right from the start [that] we would
not implement it," ISNA reported. He was speaking to the press after
meeting with representatives of Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) and Arab
League states who visited the Isfahan uranium-conversion site in
central Iran the previous day (see item below). Aqazadeh said that
"remaining matters between Iran" and the International Atomic Energy
Agency (IAEA) might be resolved "in one working session." "We have no
new issues with the [IAEA], and everything left is to do with the
past," he said. But "as Iran's dossier is political, while these
political issues are not resolved, the [IAEA] cannot or will not
resolve its outstanding issues with Iran." Aqazadeh reported the
installation of new cameras in the Isfahan plant, which he said have
been placed to monitor "the gas injection system, the final product,
and the storage of nuclear material." Aqazadeh said Iran is now working
with the IAEA within the bounds of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
(NPT), "while in the past we cooperated...beyond this treaty or beyond
the additional protocol" to the treaty, ISNA reported. VS

Iran showed six NAM and Arab League diplomats the Isfahan
uranium-conversion plant on February 3, presumably in an attempt to
demonstrate the transparency of its activities, news agencies reported.
Diplomats representing member states of the IAEA governing board were
among the visitors to the site, where uranium ore or "yellowcake" is
converted to UF6 gas; that gas is fed into centrifuges for further
enrichment as part of the nuclear fuel-production process. Iranian
envoy to the IAEA Ali Asghar Soltanieh joined ambassadors from Cuba,
Sudan, Egypt, Malaysia, and Algeria, as well as Syria's envoy to the
Arab League and about 90 journalists, news agencies reported. Cuban
envoy Norma Goicochea Estenoz said visitors could not assess what they
had seen from "the technical point of view," Reuters reported. Supreme
National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani said in Tehran the
same day that Iran will continue cooperating with the IAEA, and that
inspectors may check installations without restrictions, Radio Farda
reported, citing an ISNA report. "We are ready for any cooperation with
the [IAEA]," Larijani reportedly said. Radio Farda suggested that
Larijani's statement appeared to contradict a previous decision to bar
the entry of 38 UN inspectors (see "RFE/RL Newsline," January 23,
2007). VS

President Mahmud Ahmadinejad has proposed government spokesman
Gholamhussein Elham to be the new justice minister, IRNA reported. The
nomination was made in a letter to parliamentary speaker Gholam Ali
Haddad-Adel that was read out to lawmakers on February 4, and is
subject to parliamentary approval. Former Justice Minister Jamal
Karimi-Rad died in an automobile accident on December 28. Deputy
parliament speaker Mohammad Reza Bahonar told parliament on February 4
that the chamber will debate the choice on February 13. Separately,
ISNA quoted an unnamed judiciary source as saying that the deputy head
of the judiciary for legal and judicial development affairs, Alireza
Jamshidi, is "presently the main choice" to become the next judiciary
spokesman. VS

Two Iranian activists were prevented from boarding a flight on February
4 on their way to a conference in the United States on reforms and
religion in Iran, Radio Farda reported the same day, citing ILNA.
Hashem Aghajari and Abdullah Momeni were stopped shortly before
boarding and their passports were confiscated, Aghajari told ILNA.
Momeni is a postgraduate member of the Office to Consolidate Unity
(Daftar-i Tahkim-i Vahdat, or DTV), a confederation of student
associations, while Aghajari is an academic who has faced past
prosecution for expressing critical views of Iran's clergy (see "RFE/RL
Newsline," June 2, 2004). Aghajari said a plain-clothes agent who "did
not show us any order or name any authority" prevented Momeni and him
from boarding the flight. He added that they were later told to go to
an address in northern Tehran "after 72 hours," Radio Farda reported.
VS

Expediency Council Chairman Ali Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani on February 4
sought to explain Tehran's position on regime changes in Iraq and
Afghanistan, ISNA reported. Speaking at a university in Varamin, near
Tehran, Hashemi-Rafsanjani said that U.S. forces have occupied Iraq to
"dominate the region" and "have not attained their goal." Now, he said,
"they have...identified Iran as the culprit, and say Iran is
interfering in these countries' affairs." He said Iran is "pleased"
that former Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein -- whose army invaded Iran in
1980, setting off an eight-year war that is believed to have killed
more than 1 million Iranians -- was overthrown. "If we are upset today,
it is over a worse government like America governing in Iraq,"
Hashemi-Rafsanjani said. "America claims to have come to [Iraq] to
establish democracy. We, too, support democracy." He added that Iran
has "not seen anything good in Afghanistan either." Previous conflicts
in Iran's neighbor to the east led to floods of refugees into Iran, he
said, "So why should we oppose Afghanistan's freedom and independence?"
He said NATO forces in Afghanistan have failed to prevent increased
drug production that, in turn, flows into Iran. "Iran has helped in
both these countries, but...they accuse us of interference,"
Hashemi-Rafsanjani said, according to ISNA. "They have failed and are
looking for pretexts." VS

A truck bomb at a central market in Baghdad on February 3 killed at
least 130 and wounded more than 300, making it the single deadliest
bombing since the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, international
media reported the same day. Police officials said that a truck
carrying an estimated 1 ton of explosives blew up in the predominantly
Shi'ite Al-Sadriyah district as people were buying food ahead of the
nighttime curfew. Iraqi officials blamed the bombing on supporters of
former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein and Sunni insurgents. Prime
Minister Nuri al-Maliki issued a statement condemning the attack and
describing it as a "despicable crime," state-run Al-Sharqiyah
television reported on February 3. "Today, we, and all Iraqis and
honorable people in the world, have been devastated by the news of a
despicable crime that targeted a popular market in the Al-Sadriyah area
in Baghdad, which claimed the lives of a large number of innocent
civilians. We reiterate to our dear people that we are bent on
eradicating crime, uprooting it, and terminating those who support it
with words or deeds," al-Maliki said in a statement. SS

The National Intelligence Assessment released on February 2 paints a
bleak picture of Iraq's future and indicates the conflict has elements
of a "civil war," international media reported the same day. Although,
the report said "civil war" does not adequately reflect the complexity
of the conflict, "nonetheless, the term 'civil war' accurately
describes key elements of the Iraqi conflict, including the hardening
of ethno-sectarian identities, a sea change in the character of the
violence, ethno-sectarian mobilization, and population displacements."
Prior to the release of the report, U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates
said the term civil war oversimplifies the conflict. "I believe that
there are essentially four wars going on in Iraq: one is
Shi'a-on-Shi'a, principally in the south; the second is sectarian
conflict, principally in Baghdad; third is the insurgency; and fourth
is Al-Qaeda," Gates said. In addition, the report warned of serious
consequences if the violence is not curtailed. "Unless efforts to
reverse these conditions show measurable progress during the term of
this estimate in the coming 12 to 18 months, we assess that the overall
security situation will continue to deteriorate." SS

Iraqi government spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh said on February 3 that half
of all attacks in Baghdad are committed by insurgents coming from
Syria, Al-Arabiyah satellite television reported the same day. "We have
evidence and confirmation that 50 percent of the takfiris [insurgents]
and killers who call themselves Arab mujahedin come across the Syrian
border. We said in the past and we say it again today that Syria closes
its eyes to them," al-Dabbagh said. He also accused the Syrian
government of ignoring intelligence it obtains concerning Sunni
insurgents on Syrian territory. "The Iraqi Interior Ministry and
National Security Ministry presented evidence [to the Syrians], along
with the names of those who plot and send funds and car bombs. We know
all this and we presented this information to the Syrian brothers,"
al-Dabbagh added. U.S. and Iraqi officials have long accused Damascus
of not doing enough to prevent Sunni insurgents based in Syria from
crossing into Iraq. SS

The office of Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani on February 3 issued a
rare public statement calling for unity among Iraqis and an end to the
sectarian violence, "Gulf News" reported on February 4. "Everyone
realizes the desperate need for unity and for renouncing divisions,
avoiding sectarian fanaticism, and avoiding arousing sectarian
disputes," the statement said. Al-Sistani also warned "that some
individuals and some groups are working totally contrary to
[reconciliation] by strengthening divisions and deepening sectarian
disputes among Muslims." Al-Sistani's comments were supposedly a
reference to influential Saudi cleric Abdallah Bin Jabrain, who
recently described Shi'a as "the most vicious enemy of Muslims". SS

The UN announced on February 2 that mercenaries comprise the
second-largest fighting force in Iraq after U.S. forces, international
media reported the same day. Jose Luis Gomez del Prado, a member of the
UN's working group on mercenaries, said that there are between 30,000
and 50,000 mercenaries fighting in Iraq. The case of Iraq "is a new
manifestation of the use of mercenaries that has caught the U.S. by
surprise," Gomez del Prado said. UN official Amada Guevara said
thousands of workers have been contracted by existing companies that
have exploited legal loopholes and, in some cases, have been hired by
"ghost firms" that have opened an office for a month and then
disappeared without trace. "This amounts to the privatization of
warfare," Guevara said. SS

U.S. forces announced on February 3 that it killed four Al-Qaeda in
Iraq fighters and arrested more than 20 suspected terrorists during
separate raids in Al-Fallujah and Al-Tarmiyah. In Al-Fallujah, U.S.
forces killed three Al-Qaeda fighters and arrested 10 others. In the
Al-Tarmiyah operation, U.S. forces killed one Al-Qaeda fighter and
detained eight others. U.S. forces also said that in the Al-Tarmiyah
raid, they uncovered a large weapons cache consisting of numerous
AK-47s, several pistols, wire spools, 60 mm mortar rounds, and a
pressure plate. "Coalition forces are working diligently to eliminate
foreign terrorists and Al-Qaeda supporters who are trying to hijack the
development and building of a new stable and peaceful Iraq," the
military said in a statement. SS

On January 28, reports emerged from the town of Al-Zarqa, near the holy
city of Al-Najaf, that a shadowy group called the Army of Heaven was
waging a fierce battle with Iraqi security forces. However, as details
concerning the group continue to emerge, it is becoming increasingly
difficult to determine what took really place.

The official government version of what occurred in Al-Najaf was that a
mysterious messianic group called the Army of Heaven was planning to
attack Shi'ite pilgrims and prominent Shi'ite religious figures during
the Ashura ceremonies. Authorities said they became aware of the plot
through an informant just one week earlier. The fighting, according to
some Iraqi government sources, led to the deaths of 263 militants and
the arrests of 502 others.

Iraqi officials said the group's leader, Dia Abd al-Zahra Kadim,
proclaimed himself as Al-Mahdi, or the guided one. According to Shi'ite
belief, the 12th imam, Muhammad al-Muhantazar, disappeared as a child
and will reappear as a messianic figure, Al-Mahdi, at the end of the
world to save mankind and usher in a perfect Islamic society.

Kadim and his followers were accused of planning to storm the city of
Al-Najaf, seize the holy shrine of Imam Ali, declare that Al-Mahdi had
returned, and assassinate senior Shi'ite clerics, including Grand
Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani.

Iraqi authorities rejected the group's claims and accused it of trying
to incite unrest during Ashura, the holiest day of the Shi'ite
calendar.

"The group raises false slogans, claims to be Shi'ite, and wants to rid
the world of ulama [religious authorities]," Al-Najaf Deputy Governor
Abd-al-Husayn Abtan told Al-Arabiyah satellite television on January
30. "In fact, it has nothing to do with religion, and its leader
managed to attract a number of simple-minded people. Nevertheless, we
have discovered that the organization's leaders are highly educated
people and maintain links with foreign countries."

Furthermore, Abtan said that, judging by the group's fighting
capabilities, its members seem to have received serious military
training, an indication that it may have links with Al-Qaeda,
Al-Sharqiyah television reported on January 29. He said that, like
Al-Qaeda, the group included foreigners, adding that a Sudanese and a
number of Afghans were arrested, while two Egyptians escaped.

On January 30, an "Al-Zaman" report contradicted the official Iraqi
government version and accused the Iraqi government of carrying out a
massacre of innocent Shi'ite tribesmen.

According to the report, a procession of approximately 200 members of
the Shi'ite Al-Hawatimah tribe was making its way to Karbala to
participate in the Ashura festivities. The tribesmen carried signs and
placards calling on Iran to stop interfering in Iraq's internal
affairs. They were stopped at a checkpoint by Iraqi security forces,
who subsequently killed the occupants of the lead car of the convoy.

A convoy belonging to the Al-Khaz'al tribe nearby came to the defense
of the Al-Hawatimah and the fighting escalated. Iraqi forces soon felt
they were outnumbered and called in U.S. air support, claiming that
they were being attacked by Al-Qaeda-linked forces. A member of the
Al-Hawatimah tribe who fled the fighting told Al-Sharqiyah television
on January 31 that the procession was armed only for protection.

The Al-Hawatimah and Al- Khaz'al tribes fiercely oppose the Shi'ite-led
government's close ties to Iran, "The Independent" reported on January
31. The tribes also oppose the two main parties comprising the ruling
United Iraqi Alliance (UIA) -- the Supreme Council for the Islamic
Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) and the Al-Da'wah Party -- which control
Al-Najaf and its security forces.

A spokesman for the Army of Heaven, Abd al-Imam Jabbar, said the group
was not involved in the battle in Al-Najaf at all and accused the
government of carrying out "a propaganda campaign to discredit our
group" in order to cover up the government's "crimes." "Al-Zaman" and
"The Independent" also reported on January 31 that the Iraqi government
has prevented journalists from talking to those wounded during the
fighting.

In addition, the Muslim Scholars Association issued a statement on its
website on February 1 backing the claims of a massacre and called for
international investigation.

"The government's side of the story that there is a group calling
itself the Army of Heaven that pursues subversive goals is baseless,
and the whole issue was merely an attack against Arab tribes that did
not show allegiance to the current government, or to the forces and
militias that stand behind it," the statement said.

While it is difficult to ascertain what actually occurred in Al-Najaf,
the battle does seem to indicate that there are divisions within the
Shi'ite community. Shi'ite leaders have taken pains to project an image
of unity, and Grand Ayatollah al-Sistani has repeatedly stressed the
importance of Shi'ite unity above all else.

It may be in the best interests of the Shi'a-led government to promote
the notion of an Al-Qaeda-linked Army of Heaven as the culprit in the
Al-Najaf battle and a threat to Iraqi security. Doing so deflects
attention from the fractious state of the Shi'ite community.

This would not be the first time Shi'a-on-Shi'a violence has broken out
in Iraq. On October 19, 2006, clashes erupted between Muqtada al-Sadr's
Imam al-Mahdi Army and the Badr Brigades that left 25 dead and more
than 160 injured in Al-Amarah. The fighting began after the Badr
Brigades, the militia loyal to SCIRI, blamed the Imam al-Mahdi Army for
the assassination of Qassim al-Tamini, a senior Iraqi intelligence
officer and a member of the Badr Brigades.

The suggestion that the Shi'ite community is distancing itself from the
Army of Heaven was given greater credence when "The New York Times"
reported on February 1 that Iraqi officials have called into question
the sectarian identity of the group's leader.

At a news conference on January 31, General Qais Hamzah al-Mamuri,
chief of police for the Babil Governorate, said the leader of the group
was not killed, and identified him as Ahmad Ismail Katte, who also went
by the name of Ahmad bin al-Hasan al-Basri. Al-Mamuri said Katte is
actually a Sunni militant who took control of the Army of Heaven by
masquerading as a Shi'a. He claimed Katte was originally from the town
of Al-Zubayr, a Sunni stronghold near Al-Basrah.

"He is a Wahabbi from a Sunni town," Hamzah said, a reference to the
austere sect of Sunni Islam prevalent in Saudi Arabia. "His family is
Sunni, but they brought him up to be Shi'a."

Iraqi officials also claimed that intelligence officers from the regime
of former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein have infiltrated the Army of
Heaven. They stressed that Katte's hometown, Al-Zubayr, has long been
considered a Ba'athist bastion.

While the Iraqi government's explanations continue to be confusing and
convoluted, they are bent on portraying the Army of Heaven as a rogue
force that has no links to the mainstream Shi'ite community. Accusing
the group's leader of being a Sunni and linking him with the former
regime is an ideal way to distance the Shi'ite organizations from the
group and minimize indications that the Shi'ite community is deeply
divided.