Wednesday, March 2, 2016

Hmm

Sadly, I think the race likely ended last night. Trump winning in Vermont and Massachusetts shouldn't have happened. Similarly, the "moderate" vote in Minnesota was about 10% points below what it should have been. That makes it just above 50/50 for Trump in the moderate states, which is enough for him to win. That's also before whatever momentum he gets from increasing respectability. We won't know for sure until the 15th, but I now suspect Trump will win Ohio and maybe even Florida.

Thoughts?

BTW, to be clear, I'm not super sad about this. For one thing, I think Trump will do some things that need to be done. I'm pretty sure he'll fix the immigration system (and yes, he will sign an amnesty). I suspect he'll rid the party of its obsession with abortion and gays too. I think he'll do surprising well with women too because I suspect he's going to appoint a lot of them to cabinet posts and key positions. Each of those things go a long way toward fixing the GOP's electoral handicaps. Beyond that, I doubt he'll do much more than enjoy the perks of office.

Jed, I think the bigger problem is the influx of new Republicans. These people are largely racists and survivalists who moved into the GOP when Obama took over in 2008 and they won't know conservatism if it bit them in the ass... nor do they care. Their primary issue is the protection of white-oriented socialism.

I doubt Trump can beat Hillary. Hillary's only electoral hope is that she becomes Fluke (who became famous not for anything she said or did, but because of Rush's gross attack on her). Trump is literally the man of her dreams. If he didn't exist, she would make him.

Trump being Trump, he is going to say something hideously crude which thrills his base ('HAH HAH. He told her she was ugly and old right to her stupid face!') but which will turn white (the only class of women Trump has a snowball's chance in hell of winning over given what he has said about various minorities during his campaign) against him.

Hillary is such a terrible candidate even turning white woman against himself won't necessarily doom Trump. He just needs to hope that white men are sufficiently energized that they come out for him in historical numbers despite many conservatives' qualms about him and that everyone else is so put off by Hillary that they stay home.

This morning while having breakfast at McDonalds I literally overheard a bunch of older black veterans sitting around talking about how many months of food they had in their bunkers and who would try to come for them to take them to the FEMA camps once Trump won. Yes, the black fringe's fear of Trump is amusingly similar to the white fringe's fear of Obama :) .

Cruz's only strength lay in the South. He won two (and AK), and who knows if he really won Iowa because of crooked politics, but I'll grant you he came close. He shot his bolt. Where else does he have a chance of winning? Kansas? (Trump leads Rubio by 12, Cruz by 14 there) He won't win the big delegate states of California and New York.

Rubio is coming in third behind Trump and Cruz and basks in the glow of the Minnesota caucus victory. Yes, he could potentially make up the 20% deficit he now faces in Florida with negative ads (he has inexhaustible funding) over the next two weeks, but he took the space that Jeb! had and voters aren't all that excited about it.

Kasich is running for VP and Carson is just running because he can. I like them both. They could both come to my house for dinner. They could play with my grandkids. They're great people. But neither has a prayer. They're keeping the field open for Trump who MAY be unstoppable in 2 weeks.

That means that we need to try and work with Trump and support him against John Kerry (I think that Hillary will be forced out sometime next month) or Bernie Sanders - who can't win.

Anthony, Believe it or not, I think Trump will win in the biggest landslide since Reagan.

First, he's teflon because he's selling himself as a true outsider and the only political attacks the left/right know how to make are meant to make someone seem like "not one of us." So they just play into his hands.

Secondly, there is a strong media campaign beginning where Trump employees, friends, family and confidantes are running around talking about the "respectable, loyal" real Donald. These are surprisingly effective at humanizing him -- and he will do his best to come across as nicer in the general election. They are also selling him as much more competent than he's coming across so far. Again, that is very effective as he can point to his track record of running some successful properties. His failures, he will attribute to the things he wants to fight -- like unions.

Third, Trump is in an odd position of being an outsider for those who want an outsider, but simultaneously selling himself as a secret insider. When he starts getting more establishment endorsements, which he will once the writing is clearly on the wall, he will be seen as much more respectable while simultaneously be seen as the outsider who tamed the establishment. That gets him street cred with average people, and the herd instinct will kick in. Hence, I suspect he will do very, very well with non-ideological types.

Because of that, I suspect he will win all the normal red states, the leaning-red states (like Florida and Virginia) plus New York and New Jersey.

Finally, don't discount just how uninspired Hillary is. I don't know what Trump could do that would motivate people to support her. I really don't.

LL, Fascinating thought. I could see them turning to John Kerry should Hillary go down in flames... or be taken away in chains.

At this point, I think the numbers show that you are right. Trump will win the nomination. So the GOP needs to learn to work with him because he's what they will have -- that becomes vital to building a relationship with him and with defending their own seats. I guess we'll see how it goes.

To clarify something... I don't think Trump's support is Religious Right. Those voters are with Carson and Cruz. I think Trump's core supporters are "machismo Republicans." They don't like dark people, they don't like gays, they don't like women and they don't like the establishment, because they see the establishment as serving blacks, women and gays. Their ideology is the ideology of "having balls." They are what has crept into the GOP from the far left of the Democratic Party when it elected a black man as its nominee.

I hate to say it but I'm with Kit and Anthony on this one. Even with as bad a candidate as Hillary is I can already see the left getting highly motivated to take him down - not even the deepest fever swamp dwellers could have imagined a scenario where the GOP nominee would play ignorant about the KKK and be that brazenly offensive. I also see Trump's fringe following and the "Bushing" of conservatism you mentioned in the last thread demoralizing the right - again I'm seeing a lot of conservatives running away from Trump in horror with a mix of saying they're going to stay home, vote third party, or even vote Hillary - they see it as a takeover of the GOP by fringe elements and want nothing more to do with it. And if the middle could get scared into thinking Romney was an extremist based on guilt by association from fringe congressional candidates - and you know there will be plenty of them feeling emboldened by Trump - how does this not play into the Democrats' hands? Regardless, it's a sad day when the fringe rolls everyone like this and an important election becomes the Donald Trump Clown Show.

1. This is all fresh. Give it a month or two and you likely will see a change in how people react. In every election in my life except Reagan and Bush Sr., the losing side always swears they will never support the winner etc. etc. But as the election nears, the upset-factor cools off and people start to look at the election as left v. right. What's more, look for Trump to start to become more respectable over the coming weeks. That will change the comfort level many people have with him (rightly or wrongly).

2. I see nothing about Trump that has inspired anyone on the left to turn out. He's being written off as not serious on the left. In fact, there are many articles calling for leftists to take him more seriously than they are, but they aren't being heard. The left is frustrated and angry that a woman they view as their RINO is beating their heroic Bernie. I think the left stays home no matter what. Besides, what exactly is Trump offering that should scare anyone on the left?

In terms of the KKK incident, think about how the left would have reacted had it been W Bush, who they were inspired to hate. There would be street protests. Hollywood stars would invent a new ribbon. You would have every politician on the left demanding an apology followed by a resignation. This time, it's pretty much crickets outside of a few professional leftists. They really aren't worked up about him.

Also, keep in mind that left/right do not decide elections. The middle decides elections and the middle doesn't like Hillary and hasn't made up their mind on Trump but has enjoyed watching him for decades. Celebrity matters.

3. Don't underestimate how uninspired Hillary is. She speaks to empty rallies. Her allies berate people for not coming. No one wants to be seen with her. And she's barely squeaking by an unelectable candidate at the same time she's dogged by demands for someone else to enter the race to replace her. She sucks. Our films reflect our culture and the way Hillary has cast herself is identical to the role of nuisance/minor villain if she were on film. No one likes or respects those people. That's not a position that leads anyone to follow them. She is simply unlikable.

All that said, I agree. I'm not happy at all that the GOP has become this organization without a brain or soul, and I don't think that ends well.

Last night during his acceptance speech, Trump looked a little more presidential. Christie behind him as probably the next Attorney General as well.

I'm starting to slowly accept it even if I don't like it. I was envisioning myself like the wife who lies there thinking of King and Country while her husband does his thing. However, I think that is how much of the country thinks about the government already and they are tired of being f***ed and told to just take it. Uncomfortable about gay married or baking them a cake? Just f***ing take it! Didn't need a new insurance coverage but now you have to pay for Obamacare? Just f***ing take it! Don't like you job moving to China or worse an Illegal Hispanic kid take it for a 1/3 less money? Just f***ing take it!

The anger vote has been talked about ad nausium but I didn't appreciate just how bad it was. I think Andrew is right about Trump winning in a landslide. Nothing sticks because his supports won't care. 30% of people will always vote GOP and 30% always vote Dem. It is the middle that determines the victor and that is who he panders to and that is who loves him. Once he gets it locked up, his rhetoric will match closer to what he truly believes which is more centrist.

Let me add this too. Your comment spurs this thought. The other reason that Trump can't be successfully smeared is that for several years now, the public has developed a new bit of faulty logic that everyone seems to believe: if I don't like the person speaking the fact, then the fact isn't true/relevant.

The people trying to smear Trump are viewed by the public as people who are unlikable, not-trustworthy, etc. They are the people "destroying America for their own gain."

The public simply will not listen to those people and accept what they say. To the contrary, they will flip it around and "reason": If Trump is upsetting these people this much so that they say X about him, then I like him.

This is a widespread bit of mis-logic that I think is being applied here and will continue to be applied by a public who generally likes Trump from his prior exploits, respects him for being a billionaire, likes that he has "the right enemies" and will sound a good deal more reasonable once the general election begins.

It won't be Biden. He's not up to it. I don't want to call him senile, but he's simply not up to it, and he knows it. Kerry is warming up in the bullpen and has been telling everyone he knows inside the Beltway that he can't wait to tear Trump apart on the debate stage.

The Democratic Party has a very small bench when it comes to people they can throw in to take Hillary's place.

I don't have a dog in this fight. As I've mentioned before, most of my friends are all in for Bernie - I am not. And the thing with Trump is I totally see the appeal. I think I said the same thing about Palin and even G.W. Bush: I don't hate the person; it's the, uh, hardcore fans who give me pause!

On an unrelated topic, I really, really want to like Texas, then a nutjob like this turns up in the news!

Koshcat, Very true on the Kardashians. They are famous because their father got off a murderer and then Kim had a sex tape. But that was enough to enthrall the public and they kept watching the train wreck as car after car just kept piling on. Despite the many problems with them, the public supported their ventures one after another. By now, they dominate the culture pages and several of them are essentially respectable.

Trump seems to be going the same route. In the past few days, I've noticed a sudden big push to sell how great of a person he is if you know him personally. And my guess is that once he gets the nomination, you'll see gay, female and Hispanic employees surrounding him, giving interviews about how great he is, and a softened political stand on controversial issues.

>>In terms of the KKK incident, think about how the left would have reacted had it been W Bush, who they were inspired to hate. There would be street protests. Hollywood stars would invent a new ribbon>>

Hollywood just got schooled and exposed by Chris Rock on how KKK they are, so if Bette Midler's any indication, they're too busy kissing Oprah's ring to worry about much else. Plenty of time to re-focus their hate before November.

their father got off a murderer - that could be read a couple different ways. ;-)

Yes, the world is full of nuts, but nuts with power are a problem. Such is life, I guess.

Actually, it's funny that you asked if I'm prejudiced. I just read a review of London Has Fallen, the sequel to Olympus Has Fallen and at one point, Gerard Butler tells a villain to "Go back to F---headistan."

And in the comments, someone wrote, "I'm sick and tired of Hollywood treating everyone from F---headistan like a terrorist!" It made me laugh. :-D

The left is rooting for Trump. He is Hillary's dream opponent but he is also the best Bernie could hope for (not that I think Bernie would beat Trump).

If hypothetically speaking Sanders became the nominee his great hope of rallying the black vote (which he hasn't spent years cultivating the way Obama or Hillary have) would be Trump.

There is a world of difference between being successful in the general and successful in the primaries. The Republican primaries became a carnival of lunacy towards the end. Trump won and successfully dragged down his rivals because playing his game in the primaries is apparently the only way to do well. Playing to the peanut gallery, at one point Rubio was making insinuations about the size of Trump's hands.

*Shrugs* Maybe like the too blinded by rage to see or think primary voters who supported Trump, the middle will not worry about anything Trump says, but I doubt it.

Republicans are fine with an angry clown because they are convinced anyone can beat Hillary and that crazy talk in the primary can just be hand-waved away in the general. I remember that same sentiment being widespread (I was one of the guilty) in 2012. Maybe this time will be different, but I doubt it.

The Washington Post is reporting this afternoon that the Republican candidate (who had a weak Super Tuesday showing) told supporters today he doesn’t really see a path forward and will not be attending tomorrow’s Republican debate in Detroit.

Anthony, Romney and Trump are very different. Trump has proven appeal to the public at large and he speaks their language. The things he says are not that outrageous to the public at large -- not like they are to the PC political elite. Romney, on the other hand, always came across to the public as a rich guy with a stick up his rear who was looking down on the public. Trump comes across as looking down on the elites. That's a huge difference and it provides a lot of insulation to Trump.

In terms of the left, I think the general position has been: "Trump? Oh yeah, he's an idiot. I hope they nominate him. Now let's talk about Bernie." It's only been their elites who have tried to convince them that Trump is a danger. That lack of interest suggests to me that they aren't interested in the race beyond Bernie v. Hillary.

What's more, I've seen all the usual smears: Trump is a rich guy who abuses poor people, he's racist, he's sexist, he's a secret KKK member, and he compares perfectly to Hitler! None of them have caught on. I really get the feeling that the left's attacks on Trump will just be half-hearted pro forma attacks and the usual smears. That spells an enthusiasm gap for them.

I see where you're coming from but I'm still with Anthony on Trump's chances. I don't think it's going to be possible for him to get away from his outrageous comments in the general. Once the left can refocus itself on Trump the attacks are going to be vicious. His conduct has unnerved quite a few people and it won't be hard to portray him as a validation of every stereotype the left pushes about the right. Hillary may be uninspiring but if she comes off as the sane voice of reason to raging racist, misogynist, xenophobic Trump I think the election is hers and she'll probably come in with strong Democratic majorities at both the state and federal level. Either way this is a serious wound for both the GOP and conservatism and it's not one I see healing easily - especially if the Democrats get carte Blanche while the right sorts everything out.

Daniel, You could be right. This is one of those moments where I think we are a little more blind that normal because it's hard to tell what the public is thinking. That said, I do think I'm right, but I could easily be wrong.

My biggest concern is what you say near the end: " this is a serious wound for both the GOP and conservatism." I think this could be huge wound for conservatism which is being redefined as something it never was by people who were never it. That worries me. Nor am I sure how to best save conservatism.

Still, hang in there! Life goes on and America will prevail happily without it's moronic political circus. Indeed, Americans have gotten quite good at succeeding despite the government. This election won't change that.

Right now, Hillary is polling about 8 points ahead of Trump in "if the election were held today" polls. Put aside that Trump is the only GOP contender who currently trails Hillary in those polls. Democrats always start with significant leads over Republicans in such polls. Whether a Republican or a Democrat moves into the White House always comes down to whether Dem candidates can keep their numbers above 50% until election day. An eight point margin for Hillary before primary season is even out is a terrible starting position for any Democrat. A potato with an "R" beside it could close that.

Also, what is Hillary offering the public? She's running a "I'm not that guy" campaign and I don't see her shifting to a better message. In fact, if Trump gets the nom, she's all but guaranteed to double down on that message.

She and her campaign even look fatigued. She even has that "Ready for Hillary" slogan. I just can't get over that. Makes me think of frat guys with a taser. "Okay. Lemme finish my beer. *hmmph* Okay, okay. Alright. *schwoo-schwoo* I'm ready! Let's go! Let's go! Hit me!"

Maybe it's time for a re-branding of the philosophy? I can't think of a good name for it but I'm not seeing many other options at this point if conservatism gets defined by those fringers.

I do think you're right about America surviving and that Trump's ultimate goal is likely large scale cronyism. I just can't shake my worries that his nomination spells the end of the GOP. A lot of the horror I'm seeing is coming from Hispanics which has me worried that his nomination will be for them what Goldwater was to blacks and the John Birch Society was for Jews: making them a permanent Democratic constituency. You've said many times if that happens it's Game Over for the Republicans. I don't see that scenario ending well for anyone.

Daniel, This is definitely reshaping the GOP. My biggest fear is that the GOP is becoming the "angry white dude" party and seems to be proud of it. That would be the end of the GOP.

That said, I'm not sure Trump is that guy. I'm all but sure that Trump will disappoint his followers and will quickly become very "RINO." He's shown signs of being friendly to the gay agenda. What's more, his companies are all progressive in hiring policy. His history suggests that he's comfortable with women running his enterprises. He's also shown no interest in abortion or making birth control less available. Generally, he seems to want to avoid those issues. He also seems quite happy to mingle with Hispanics and he hires tons of them, many of whom are probably illegals -- they speak well of him.

I find it hard to believe that a man with those hiring practices and traits would suddenly become hard-core on those issues. So while his supporters may be screaming for him to deport all the women, gays and Mexicans, I think he's going to flip on them.

What that ultimately means, I have no idea. Too many moving parts for a clear guess at the future, but it is possible that he actually cleans up the GOP's worst issues.