Hold on to your hats

What a great thing foresight would have been for the US shale oil producers. Cleverly and responsibly, they had previously hedged their margin around the $55 level. But looking at levels now they must be kicking themselves that their government has taken decisions that effectively exclude them from enjoying the upside of the current price hike.

The EIA’s latest drilling productivity report said production in the Permian averaged 3.387 million bpd in August, and is set to rise to 3.42 million bpd this month. In total the shale patch contributed 7.43 million bpd to the national total in August and will contribute 7.522 million bpd to the total in September.

Technically the indicators are showing yesterday’s drop to be a pull back before we again test the highs of the year. So hold on to your hats, we are in for a bumpy ride, although with the reduction in Iranian supplies from the Gulf the other nations are making hay while the sun shines.

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FFA: Bit of a rebound today in varying degrees with Capes up 1k nearby while PMX is up 300-400 nearby and SMX bit firmer in places. Expecting PMX to still be down 100 or so and SMX/Handy slightly softer.