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Saturday, July 13, 2013

July Cup

Saturday's Irish Independent article:

SHEA SHEA
I won’t pretend that I know a whole lot about South African racing but I do
always take note when the country’s best known trainer, Mike de Kock, sends a
runner over to Britain. Admittedly, eleven winners from 77 British runners
since 2003 is not exactly earth-shattering stuff; but the fact that you would
have broke even to SP and made a reasonable profit at exchange prices blindly
backing his horses suggests they are often overpriced. While the sample is
small, he’s proved particularly profitable to follow in five and six furlong
sprints but it’s my guess that punters are sometimes put off backing horses from
outside Britain and Ireland as their form is harder to assess. There are,
however, one or two de Kock horses which punters here may be familiar with and it’s not long
since Shea Shea almost became the
first South African winner at Royal Ascot (traded at 1/5 in-running in the
King’s Stand Stakes).The six-year-old
gelding is back today for the Darley July Cup at Newmarket (3.50) and once again
takes on the horse that beat him at Ascot, Sole Power. My big concern about
Sole Power is the fact that he's never raced beyond five furlongs and it really
is anyone's guess as to whether he'll get the extra furlong today. Shea Shea
has proven himself over a number of distances and has won a race over seven
furlongs in the past although he's definitely a sprinter at heart and is seen
to best effect in five and six furlong contests. While he hasn't yet been
successful in Britain, don't forget that he was very stylish when winning the
Group One Al Quoz Sprint at Meydan back in March and if he runs anywhere near
his best today, he'll be very hard to beat at odds of 7/2 or thereabouts. At
Chester, we've a couple of six and seven furlong handicaps on the card and
regular readers may remember the Chester strategy I mentioned on these pages
last month whereby you back horses drawn in stalls one and two in five and six
furlong handicaps provided they are in the top three in the weights. Since
then, that system has produced two winners from three bets for a profit of €95
to a €10 stake (results exclude yesterday evening's racing due to copy
deadlines).With those figures in mind,
it should be worth siding with Red
Explorer to at 9/4 and El Viento each-way at 8/1 in the 2.50 and 4.0 races
respectively. With Chester being the tightest track in Britain, horses drawn
low on the inside rail have a big advantage as they obviously have to cover
less ground than those on the outside.

Each-way
WHILE Stencive would appear to be the most likely winner of the 54th John
Smith's Cup at York (2.55), odds of 5/1 make little appeal in a 20-runner
handicap which looks quite open. Instead, I'm going to keep Clon Brulee on my side each-way at 8/1.
A bookmaking pal across the water who works for one of the big firms told me
he's noticed significant interest in this horse since the decs came out and any
market support today should be taken as a positive sign. The lightly raced
gelding is progressing nicely and I reckon he's a few pounds better off than
his rating of 93 suggests.

DO THE DOUBLE
GAELIC FOOTBALL
WITH Dublin priced 1/10, the bookies believe it's not really a question of
whether the boys in blue will beat Meath in the Leinster final; rather it's
more a case of just how many points they beat them by. While we've seen some
big GAA shocks in recent weeks, Dublin have so much strength in-depth
throughout the squad that it almost impossible to envisage Meath lifting the Delaney
Cup in the Hogan Stand tomorrow afternoon. We'll probably see some goals so
take a chance and back the ultra-talented nineteen-year-old Paul Mannion to hit the back of the net
anytime at 2/1 (Ladbrokes).
RACING
NOT every horse can handle fast ground but Aljamaaheer
has put in a number of notable efforts on firm ground and was unlucky to be
collared late-on by Declaration Of War last time in the Group One Queen Anne
Stakes at Ascot. He's dropped in class for today's Group Two Summer Mile Stakes
(2.30 Ascot) and his recent big-race experience should give him an edge over
his rivals, priced around 2/1. That said, he won't have it all his own way and
the likes of Afsare and Trade Storm will make sure Warrington native Paul
Hanagan has to work hard to earn his riding fee.

About Me

WAYNE Bailey was born in Dublin where he still lives with daughter. A librarian by profession, Wayne has always had a passion for betting and trading and has spent various periods throughout his life as a professional gambler. In 2007, he graduated from University College Dublin with a degree in social science and information studies and four years later, he completed a diploma in financial trading from the Irish Institute of Financial Trading. More recently, he studied psychology and the behaviour of the human mind. Wayne is a regular contributor to various newspapers and websites in the UK and Ireland, and he currently pens the Betting Ring column which enjoys a large dedicated following every Saturday in Ireland’s largest selling newspaper The Irish Independent. Wayne's book 'Sports Trading on Betfair' was published in 2014. Email: waynebaileyracing@gmail.com