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Benintendi has cured his ills versus lefties at home, and is now hitting a solid .261/.320/.435 , good for a 103 wRC+ as a LHH 23 YO sophomore.

Unfortunately, he is an unmitigated train wreck on the road vs LHP at .143/.280/.238, a 46 wRC+. He should simply never start a game on the road against a lefthanded starter until he shows signs of figuring this out.

loves the secret sauce

Benintendi has cured his ills versus lefties at home, and is now hitting a solid .261/.320/.435 , good for a 103 wRC+ as a LHH 23 YO sophomore.

Unfortunately, he is an unmitigated train wreck on the road vs LHP at .143/.280/.238, a 46 wRC+. He should simply never start a game on the road against a lefthanded starter until he shows signs of figuring this out.

Touché, except....if you read beyond the slash, his batted-ball numbers vs. LHP are still a bit worse at home (though his road numbers have gotten dramatically worse to catch most of the way up). He's just been luckier at home (.400 BABIP on ground balls vs. lefties at Fenway, .125 on the road.)

But it seems like the home/road thing was likely a small-sample artifact. Regardless of where he is, LH pitching remains his Kryptonite.

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He's a potential all-star after this recent surge, now at .296/.378/.544 for the season with a 143 OPS+. Top 10 in the AL in OBP, OPS, Runs, SB, RBI, and BB. The Sox basically haven't missed Mookie since Benitendi has played to that same level since he went out.

Still a .750 OPS player away from home & against lefties but I'd say we can live with that.

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He's a potential all-star after this recent surge, now at .296/.378/.544 for the season with a 143 OPS+. Top 10 in the AL in OBP, OPS, Runs, SB, RBI, and BB. The Sox basically haven't missed Mookie since Benitendi has played to that same level since he went out.

Still a .750 OPS player away from home & against lefties but I'd say we can live with that.

hillbilly suburbanite

He's a potential all-star after this recent surge, now at .296/.378/.544 for the season with a 143 OPS+. Top 10 in the AL in OBP, OPS, Runs, SB, RBI, and BB. The Sox basically haven't missed Mookie since Benitendi has played to that same level since he went out.

Still a .750 OPS player away from home & against lefties but I'd say we can live with that.

Starting at an arbitrary point May 9 (when he hit his 2nd HR of the season) there's been 26 games. Since that point, he's hit .349/.433/.728 with 17 XBH. Of these 26 games, only 8 have been on the road.

Road games since 5/9 - .264/.426/.531
His splits against LHP since 5/9 - .389/.421/.833 (19 PA)

I think the home/away splits will normalize to something less extreme by the end of the season. FWIW he had a better OPS on the road last year by a significant margin. (.711 OPS vs .838) Seems correlated to this hot streak wrapping around some homestands. He's hitting just about everyone and everywhere right now.

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Starting at an arbitrary point May 9 (when he hit his 2nd HR of the season) there's been 26 games. Since that point, he's hit .349/.433/.728 with 17 XBH. Of these 26 games, only 8 have been on the road.

Nasty, brutish, and short

His +16.6 in total offense is 9th in MLB and he is 12th in WAR - and I think Fenway hurts his defensive rating. This team could easily have fallen on hard times with Mookie's injury but for what Benintendi has done these past few weeks. He's reestablishing himself as one of the best players on the team and in the American League. Ben10 is right there with Mookie and JD as the core of this team.

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His +16.6 in total offense is 9th in MLB and he is 12th in WAR - and I think Fenway hurts his defensive rating. This team could easily have fallen on hard times with Mookie's injury but for what Benintendi has done these past few weeks. He's reestablishing himself as one of the best players on the team and in the American League. Ben10 is right there with Mookie and JD as the core of this team.

Member

it's amazing to think that this team is still far short of its best case scenario. mitchy 2bags (158 wRC+) and holt (128 wRC+) are hitting well, but nunez (72 wRC+), bradley (62 wRC+), vazquez (41 wRC+), leon (78 wRC+), and swihart (11 wRC+) have all been somewhere between very bad and terrible. imagine what this offense would do if these guys were merely bad to below average?

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it's amazing to think that this team is still far short of its best case scenario. mitchy 2bags (158 wRC+) and holt (128 wRC+) are hitting well, but nunez (72 wRC+), bradley (62 wRC+), vazquez (41 wRC+), leon (78 wRC+), and swihart (11 wRC+) have all been somewhere between very bad and terrible. imagine what this offense would do if these guys were merely bad to below average?

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Benintendi had 1 HR in his first 142 PA (32 games) this year, 2 HRs in the next 48 (10 games), and 9 in his last 100 (22 games).

First 32 games: .244/.331/.390 in 142 PA with 9 doubles, 3 triples and 1 HR. 17bb/26k on a BAbip of .296.
Last 32 games: .349/.432/.714 in 148 PA with 9 doubles, 2 triples and 11 HRs. 19bb/21k on a BAbip of .344.

Betts season: .354/.431/.735 in 218 PA with 19 doubles, 1 triple and 17 HRs. 22bb/26k on a BAbip of .338.

if you take Ben 10s first 32 games and turn 10 outs into HRs, you get a line remarkably close to his last 32 games. Kinda crazy.

Well-Known Member

And in the 5 games since this post: .667/.750/1.067, 5bb, 4k in 20 PA. OPS back up to .898.

What do you think his floor is exactly? This is only his 2nd full season in the Majors and only his 3rd (and a half) as a pro. He slashed .312/.392/.540 in the minors with 74bb/63k in 657 PA. What do you think is fake? Do you think he won't hit for contact? Do you think he won't walk 10% of the time? Do you think he won't have an ISO close to .200? What do you consider a star? If he does all those things, he's a .280/.350/.480 type at worst.

He just turned 24 so to expect no improvement from last year or going forward seems odd. There is something about Ben10 you don't like because you've been consistent in your opinion about him. I just don't see what your opinion is grounded on.

Bumping this from the trade targets thread 'cause I'd like to give it adequate attention. The core of the matter is his performance and learning curve against left-handed pitching.

Since he just turned 24, examining his past two years is a clean way of looking at how he compares to other precocious left-handed hitters his age. Here are the 29 LHH who logged 700 or more major league plate appearances at the ages of 22-23 since this data was recorded in 2002, and their isolated wOBA against LHP. (I'm excluding statistics these players put up before turning 22, since in some cases, like Crawford, they were called up very young out of necessity.)

First, the obvious. The fact that Benny's on this list means he's really good, because players promoted to the majors by 22-23 years of age are good. Second, Benintendi doesn't fare fantastically here, relatively speaking.

Sizemore figured out lefties at 24 and put up a .364 wOBA over the next two years (I calculated by birthday, not player season). He's an encouraging comp, and what we should be hoping for. Rizzo did the same, destroying them at a .395 wOBA clip across his 24-25 years. Statcast doesn't go back that far, but Fangraphs data says Sizemore and Rizzo's hard hit ball rates across their 22-23 seasons are modestly higher than Benny's is (though AB's walk rate is higher).

A lot of the other guys in the bottom half of this list are more worrisome, obviously. Some of them remained useful players, but many did not figure out lefties. In any case, there's discordance among those comparisons to the player we (and the league) think Benny to be.

There are six other smaller factors that taken alone are not a big deal but added together start to feel significant to me.

1. The Sox have faced a disproportionately low number of LHP. Benny was promoted exactly a month after his 22nd birthday, but even factoring that, he's faced fewer LHP compared to other regulars. Sox hitters have faced LHP 23.83 percent of PAs since the beginning of 2017 — 27th in MLB. (League average is 26.54 percent.) That's not huge, but it'll correct itself at some point, and when it does there's reason to think it'll suppress Benny's numbers.

2. The exit velocity thing, which I wrote about in the other thread. For what it's worth, Benintendi is slightly below MLB average. Since the Sox just targeted a slew of hitters with top ranking exit velocities in last month's draft, this seems like something the FO cares about.

3. Because of park factors and his batting profile (average/below-average exit velocity, lots of pulled fly balls), he's not an ideal fit playing half his games in Fenway. (He'd be a terrific fit for Yankee Stadium, sadly.)

4. He plays the easiest outfield position in the major leagues.

5. He's got the reputation of a center fielder without the resume of a center fielder (some evaluations believe he is not a good one). That affects his perceived value around the league, but it's also a skill that may erode if he's not playing there.

6. The Red Sox have a far more difficult time signing and developing pitchers than hitters. You can make an argument that this is sound strategy because pitching is more volatile, but it means that the FO accounts for a certain number of position players to become trade bait.

Again, I wanna stress that I don't think Benintendi is going to collapse. I think he's a very good player and his floor is quite high, and he has improved a bit against LHP this year. I'm not trolling folks excited about him and I'm not trying to die on this hill. I want Benintendi on my team and I like him a lot, but I wouldn't hesitate to trade him right now for an ace. The problem is, there are very few pitchers in the league that could possibly be equitable value. Snell, Berrios, Nola, maybe DeGrom? That's it.

Dragon Wangler

Bumping this from the trade targets thread 'cause I'd like to give it adequate attention. The core of the matter is his performance and learning curve against left-handed pitching.

Since he just turned 24, examining his past two years is a clean way of looking at how he compares to other precocious left-handed hitters his age. Here are the 29 LHH who logged 700 or more major league plate appearances at the ages of 22-23 since this data was recorded in 2002, and their isolated wOBA against LHP. (I'm excluding statistics these players put up before turning 22, since in some cases, like Crawford, they were called up very young out of necessity.)

First, the obvious. The fact that Benny's on this list means he's really good, because players promoted to the majors by 22-23 years of age are good. Second, Benintendi doesn't fare fantastically here, relatively speaking.

Sizemore figured out lefties at 24 and put up a .364 wOBA over the next two years (I calculated by birthday, not player season). He's an encouraging comp, and what we should be hoping for. Rizzo did the same, destroying them at a .395 wOBA clip across his 24-25 years. Statcast doesn't go back that far, but Fangraphs data says Sizemore and Rizzo's hard hit ball rates across their 22-23 seasons are modestly higher than Benny's is (though AB's walk rate is higher).

A lot of the other guys in the bottom half of this list are more worrisome, obviously. Some of them remained useful players, but many did not figure out lefties. In any case, there's discordance among those comparisons to the player we (and the league) think Benny to be.

There are six other smaller factors that taken alone are not a big deal but added together start to feel significant to me.

1. The Sox have faced a disproportionately low number of LHP. Benny was promoted exactly a month after his 22nd birthday, but even factoring that, he's faced fewer LHP compared to other regulars. Sox hitters have faced LHP 23.83 percent of PAs since the beginning of 2017 — 27th in MLB. (League average is 26.54 percent.) That's not huge, but it'll correct itself at some point, and when it does there's reason to think it'll suppress Benny's numbers.

2. The exit velocity thing, which I wrote about in the other thread. For what it's worth, Benintendi is slightly below MLB average. Since the Sox just targeted a slew of hitters with top ranking exit velocities in last month's draft, this seems like something the FO cares about.

3. Because of park factors and his batting profile (average/below-average exit velocity, lots of pulled fly balls), he's not an ideal fit playing half his games in Fenway. (He'd be a terrific fit for Yankee Stadium, sadly.)

4. He plays the easiest outfield position in the major leagues.

5. He's got the reputation of a center fielder without the resume of a center fielder (some evaluations believe he is not a good one). That affects his perceived value around the league, but it's also a skill that may erode if he's not playing there.

6. The Red Sox have a far more difficult time signing and developing pitchers than hitters. You can make an argument that this is sound strategy because pitching is more volatile, but it means that the FO accounts for a certain number of position players to become trade bait.

Again, I wanna stress that I don't think Benintendi is going to collapse. I think he's a very good player and his floor is quite high, and he has improved a bit against LHP this year. I'm not trolling folks excited about him and I'm not trying to die on this hill. I want Benintendi on my team and I like him a lot, but I wouldn't hesitate to trade him right now for an ace. The problem is, there are very few pitchers in the league that could possibly be equitable value. Snell, Berrios, Nola, maybe DeGrom? That's it.

Do you think Farrell hurt him last year at all or stunted his growth vs lefties by platooning him? It bothers me when you have a young potential star and managers play the splits for year instead of letting them learn.

Member

Do you think Farrell hurt him last year at all or stunted his growth vs lefties by platooning him? It bothers me when you have a young potential star and managers play the splits for year instead of letting them learn.

Member

Benintendi had 1 HR in his first 142 PA (32 games) this year, 2 HRs in the next 48 (10 games), and 9 in his last 100 (22 games).

First 32 games: .244/.331/.390 in 142 PA with 9 doubles, 3 triples and 1 HR. 17bb/26k on a BAbip of .296.
Last 32 games: .349/.432/.714 in 148 PA with 9 doubles, 2 triples and 11 HRs. 19bb/21k on a BAbip of .344.

Betts season: .354/.431/.735 in 218 PA with 19 doubles, 1 triple and 17 HRs. 22bb/26k on a BAbip of .338.

if you take Ben 10s first 32 games and turn 10 outs into HRs, you get a line remarkably close to his last 32 games. Kinda crazy.

Following 18 games: .197/.247/.268 in 77 PA with 2 doubles and 1 HR. 5bb/16k in 77 PA on a BAbip of .236.
Last 10 games: .545/.634/.788 in 41 PA with 5 doubles and 1 HR. 8bb/7k in 41 PA on a BAbip of .680.

His line vs lefties has also improved to a passable .224/.295/.412 in 95 PA with 8bb/24k on a .271 BAbip. He had a pretty big split in the minors but it's a small sample size and the major difference was power. He hit for a decent enough average and his BB/K ratios were in line with his performance vs RHP. His career to date, his BAbip vs R is .332 while vs L it is .279. I'm sure some of that difference is very real, but I'd guess some of it is also luck. If he can hit .250 vs L, he goes from passable to average-slightly above average. The difference from hitting .224 vs .250 is going 19/85 or 21/85.

Also, just for reference, he is slashing a robust .328/.415/.554 in 318 PA vs R with 43bb/47k.

Well-Known Member

Anyone wanna talk about this guy? Hitting a seemingly so-so .272/.343/.405 with 9 home runs in 628 PA since last year’s all-star break, a 98 wRC+. That’s 45th out of 55 outfielders (with 400 PA) over that time, and lowest among 16 full-time left-fielders (300+ PA).

Member

Relative to last year, his launch angle is up (18.6. vs 12.6), his barrel % is up (8.8 vs 6.4) but his exit velocity is down (87.5 vs 88.4). However, his K% is *way* up (23.3% vs 16.0%) and his walk rate is a tick down (9.5% vs 10.7%). It looks like he's trying to hop on the launch angle train but it's not quite working for him (yet?). For what it's worth, he's still a 1.2 fWAR and 1.1 bWAR player, so he's seemingly still adding value, just not a ton.

What worries me is that he grades out at below average for practically every statcast metric:

exit velocity: 27th percentile

hard hit %: 21st percentile

sprint speed: 47th percentile

xwOBA: 46th percentile

xBA: 32nd percnetile

xSLG: 50th percentile

outs above average: 25th percentile

outfielder jump: 21st percentile

This is saying he's a well-below average hitter and defender with only average speed. That's....not a great look.

Member

I don't know how much sprint speed is context dependent. In other words, your sprint speed might be higher if you have excuses to bust ass around the bases a lot. If you're hitting a bunch of grounders, you aren't usually sprinting all out. Potential evidence for this - Mookie's sprint speed per statcast was a tick lower than it usually was earlier this year (27.5 ft/sec) but is now right in line with his career average (27.9 ft/sec). Beni is at 26.7 this year, far lower than his 27.7 last year, and lower still then the two years before that (28.6 in 2016, 208.3 in 2017). Whatever the reason, it's not a great trend.

Member

I remember a couple years ago when reporters speculated that the Marlins were about to enter fire-sale mode, someone here suggested a trade package around Benintendi for Yelich. Some folks balked because the difference offensively between Miami Yelich and Benintendi to that point was not significant enough to overcome Benny's age and pre-arb status. I don't know if that was ever an actual rumor or just a SOSH trade proposal, but damn that offense would be historic (especially if JD and Mookie were to post second half numbers approaching their 2018 seasons).

Member

I remember a couple years ago when reporters speculated that the Marlins were about to enter fire-sale mode, someone here suggested a trade package around Benintendi for Yelich. Some folks balked because the difference offensively between Miami Yelich and Benintendi to that point was not significant enough to overcome Benny's age and pre-arb status. I don't know if that was ever an actual rumor or just a SOSH trade proposal, but damn that offense would be historic (especially if JD and Mookie were to post second half numbers approaching their 2018 seasons).

I was definitely on that train. What Yelich has done since heading to the Brewers was pretty hard to predict. That offseason Yelich was coming off a 118 wRC+ year. He was a good player but Benny seemed kinda similar, was younger, cheaper and had more years of control. I very much wish they had made that trade now.

Well-Known Member

@Savin Hillbilly and I and a bunch of others were pretty into that idea at the time. Hard to say if it was in play, or if that extra year of control they got in Brinson was a dealbreaker for the Marlins — they’re nothing if not cost-averse — but I can’t imagine they’d have preferred Brinson/Diaz/Harrison over Beni/Chavis/_____.

Yes. Although Benintendi is a remarkably similar player to Christian Yelich his 5 years in Miami. Roughly 800 OPS with 15-20 HR type numbers. So hopeful there’s a breakout coming, even if not on the same level as Yelich’s.

He’s still only 24 years old and if he keeps up as he’s been hell have improved each of his first 3 full seasons in the league. To say this is who he is is to assume that he’s not going to keep improving and I’m not certain that’s the case given his age and improvement so far.

lurker

He’s still only 24 years old and if he keeps up as he’s been hell have improved each of his first 3 full seasons in the league. To say this is who he is is to assume that he’s not going to keep improving and I’m not certain that’s the case given his age and improvement so far.

Yeah, although you're obviously a betting favorite to assume nearly every 25-year old player will not become an MVP, Benintendi's career thus far is not much different that several recent MVPs. Hell, at this age, Josh Donaldson was still a minor league catcher.

Member

Yeah, although you're obviously a betting favorite to assume nearly every 25-year old player will not become an MVP, Benintendi's career thus far is not much different that several recent MVPs. Hell, at this age, Josh Donaldson was still a minor league catcher.

I wouldn’t bet on him winning any MVPs because he plays in the same league as Devers and X, who I see alternating MVPs for the next 20 years or so. But I’m definitely expecting more improvement. Just looking at his stats since June, he’s been a stud for the last few months

lurker

I wouldn’t bet on him winning any MVPs because he plays in the same league as Devers and X, who I see alternating MVPs for the next 20 years or so. But I’m definitely expecting more improvement. Just looking at his stats since June, he’s been a stud for the last few months

Well-Known Member

Yes. Although Benintendi is a remarkably similar player to Christian Yelich his 5 years in Miami. Roughly 800 OPS with 15-20 HR type numbers. So hopeful there’s a breakout coming, even if not on the same level as Yelich’s.

Beni is never going to be Yelich. Yelich is 6’3” and 200 lbs. and always had high exit velocity numbers. He was a swing change candidate waiting to happen. Beni is 5’10” and 170 lbs and is a good player but his exit velocity is average. That doesn’t mean he can’t improve but it is highly unlikely he ever develops into a big power hitter.

Member

Beni is never going to be Yelich. Yelich is 6’3” and 200 lbs. and always had high exit velocity numbers. He was a swing change candidate waiting to happen. Beni is 5’10” and 170 lbs and is a good player but his exit velocity is average. That doesn’t mean he can’t improve but it is highly unlikely he ever develops into a big power hitter.

The one encouraging thing for Beni's recent hot streak is coinciding with a big bump in exit velo - 92.1 so far in August. His previous best in and calendar month was last month at 90.0, prior to that it was 89.5 in July of last year.

lurker

I wouldn’t bet on him winning any MVPs because he plays in the same league as Devers and X, who I see alternating MVPs for the next 20 years or so. But I’m definitely expecting more improvement. Just looking at his stats since June, he’s been a stud for the last few months

goalpost mover

I think Benintendi has all the makings of a nice 14 year solid career kind of player that you love to have, won’t make insane money, but won’t be in the MVP conversation. Something like a Paul O’Neill type. Reliable pro that you put out there and don’t worry about. You know at the end of the year he will have his 15-20 homers, his .285-.300 average, and will make a bunch of plays, but will never put up a 9 WAR season.

Member

I think Benintendi has all the makings of a nice 14 year solid career kind of player that you love to have, won’t make insane money, but won’t be in the MVP conversation. Something like a Paul O’Neill type. Reliable pro that you put out there and don’t worry about. You know at the end of the year he will have his 15-20 homers, his .285-.300 average, and will make a bunch of plays, but will never put up a 9 WAR season.

Nothing against O’Neill, but I decided to find a guy who played for the Red Sox for a comp for Beni. Candidates might be Reggie Smith, Fred Lynn, Trot Nixon and JD Drew. Reggie and Lynn are probably, no, most likely a stretch. We can hope though. I hope he turns out long term to be better than Trot and JD, at least more consistent because he stays on the field more.

lurker

Nothing against O’Neill, but I decided to find a guy who played for the Red Sox for a comp for Beni. Candidates might be Reggie Smith, Fred Lynn, Trot Nixon and JD Drew. Reggie and Lynn are probably, no, most likely a stretch. We can hope though. I hope he turns out long term to be better than Trot and JD, at least more consistent because he stays on the field more.

Seems like Greenwell is a closer comp than any of those guys. Greenwell was a better hitter at this age, but 11.8 bWAR through 24 is not too far off from Benintendi. And Greenwell's 25-26 seasons (121 OPS+, and 6.2 total bWAR) are about exactly Tendi's projections.

loves the secret sauce

I remember Greenwell in LF as....OK. OK range, OK at playing caroms, fringey arm. Not as good as the young Jim Rice (though better than the old Rice that he replaced), and roughly comparable to his successor Troy O'Leary. Better than most of the guys we've thrown out there between O'Leary and Beni, but that's a low bar. He was the classic guy who won't hurt you out there but earns his money with his bat.

The best evidence for Benintendi's defensive superiority is the number of career starts Greenwell ever made in center field. (Hint: it rhymes with hero.)

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