Friday, October 17, 2014

During last season the College Basketball SBPI (SportsBoss
Power Index) made its debut after 2 years of analysis, jiggering & vigorous
back-testing – how well did it do with ATS winners?

Unbelievable, as we will outline here through
multiple entries specifically on the topic.We are starting with the 2010 NCAA Tournament, but have the results from
all tournament since & would be happy to share those with feedback.

What is the College Basketball SBPI?It’s a comprehensive system for college
basketball teams that grades performance in 10 offensive & defensive
categories, adjusts those raw figures for SOS, then slots teams into their
proper power ratings.

First up let’s take a look at the 2010 NCAA Tournament using
the SBPI ranks & power ratings for those seasons, comparing those “lines”
to what Vegas closed at, and grading our plays.We have graded every play that had a 0.6 point or greater variance
between our line & Vegas closing # - and you will see how solid the results
are.Why show the results of an NCAA
Tournament?Well it removes many of the
other variables we use when handicapping during the regular season – each team
needs a win to advance so we can generally expect a team to give its best
effort – it does not always translate to such, but it’s the situation that
removes the most other variables we utilize.

Legend:

SBPI Rank: where
each team’s power rating slotted them that specific season

SBPI Rating: true
strength of a team.The difference
between teams SBPI Rating is the spread we project for a matchup between the
two schools

SBPI Pick:
identifies the side the SBPI directs us to playing based on comparing SBPI Line
vs. Vegas Line

Here is the Midwest Region:

SBPI

SBPI

Vegas

SBPI

Rank

Rating

Seed

Line

Line

Pick

Grade

4

93.7

KANSAS

1

-27.9

-25

KANSAS

LOSS

264

65.8

LEHIGH

16

53

81.9

UNLV

8

45

83.4

N.
IOWA

9

-1.5

-1

-

17

88.1

MICHIGAN
STATE

5

-12.7

-13

-

121

75.4

NEW
MEXICO ST

12

23

86.6

MARYLAND

4

-8.4

-9.5

HOUSTON

LOSS

95

78.2

HOUSTON

13

21

86.8

TENNESSEE

6

-3.0

-3

-

42

83.8

SAN
DIEGO STATE

11

28

85.6

GEORGETOWN

3

-7.8

-13.5

OHIO

WIN

98

77.8

OHIO

14

70

80.6

OKLAHOMA

7

-2

GEORGIA TECH

WIN

30

85.6

GEORGIA
TECH

10

-5.0

19

87.7

OHIO
STATE

2

-16.7

-17.5

UCSB

WIN

182

71.0

UCSB

15

4

93.7

KANSAS

1

-10.3

-11

KANSAS

LOSS

45

83.4

N.
IOWA

9

17

88.1

MICHIGAN
ST

5

-1.5

23

86.6

MARYLAND

4

-1

MICHIGAN ST

WIN

21

86.8

TENNESSEE

6

-9

-9

-

98

77.8

OHIO

14

30

85.6

GEORGIA
TECH

10

19

87.7

OHIO
STATE

2

-2.1

-7

OHIO STATE

WIN

45

83.4

N.
IOWA

9

17

88.1

MICHIGAN
STATE

5

-4.7

-1.5

MICHIGAN ST

WIN

21

86.8

TENNESSEE

6

19

87.7

OHIO
STATE

2

-0.9

-4.5

TENNESSEE

WIN

17

88.1

MICHIGAN
STATE

5

-1.3

21

86.8

TENNESSEE

6

-2

MICHIGAN ST

WIN

Next up is the West Region, winner of which would play
Midwest Region winner Michigan State in the Final Four:

SBPI

SBPI

Vegas

SBPI

Rank

Rating

Seed

Line

Line

Pick

Grade

35

84.8

SYRACUSE

1

-16.5

-15.5

SYRACUSE

WIN

222

68.3

VERMONT

16

73

80.3

GONZAGA

8

32

85.2

FLORIDA
STATE

9

-4.9

-1

FLORIDA STATE

LOSS

11

89.2

BUTLER

5

-9.8

-2.5

BUTLER

WIN

82

79.4

UTEP

12

48

82.4

VANDERBILT

4

-8.3

-2.5

VANDERBILT

LOSS

140

74.1

MURRAY
STATE

13

7

90.3

XAVIER

6

-3.8

-1.5

XAVIER

WIN

25

86.5

MINNESOTA

11

20

87.0

PITTSBURGH

3

-11.3

-9.5

PITTSBURGH

WIN

113

75.7

OAKLAND

14

29

85.6

BYU

7

-0.6

-5

FLORIDA

LOSS

33

85.0

FLORIDA

10

3

95.3

KANSAS
STATE

2

-27.6

-15

KANSAS STATE

WIN

238

67.7

NORTH
TEXAS

15

35

84.8

SYRACUSE

1

-4.5

-6.5

GONZAGA

LOSS

73

80.3

GONZAGA

8

11

89.2

BUTLER

5

-15.1

-4

BUTLER

LOSS

140

74.1

MURRAY
STATE

13

7

90.3

XAVIER

6

-3.3

20

87.0

PITTSBURGH

3

-2

XAVIER

WIN

29

85.6

BYU

7

3

95.3

KANSAS
STATE

2

-9.7

-4

KANSAS STATE

WIN

35

84.8

SYRACUSE

1

-6

BUTLER

WIN

11

89.2

BUTLER

5

-4.4

7

90.3

XAVIER

6

3

95.3

KANSAS
STATE

2

-5

-5

-

11

89.2

BUTLER

5

3

95.3

KANSAS
STATE

2

-6.1

-3.5

KANSAS STATE

LOSS

On to the other side of the Field of 64 – first up let’s
look at the East:

SBPI

SBPI

Vegas

SBPI

Rank

Rating

Seed

Line

Line

Pick

Grade

12

88.8

KENTUCKY

1

-16.2

-18.5

EAST TENN ST

LOSS

157

72.6

EAST
TENN ST

16

9

89.9

TEXAS

8

-7.5

-5.5

TEXAS

LOSS

49

82.4

WAKE
FOREST

9

39

84.2

TEMPLE

5

-7.3

-3

TEMPLE

LOSS

105

76.9

CORNELL

12

16

88.3

WISCONSIN

4

-10.4

-10.5

-

97

77.9

WOFFORD

13

13

88.5

MARQUETTE

6

-0.5

-1

-

18

88.0

WASHINGTON

11

26

86.3

NEW
MEXICO

3

-13.6

-8.5

NEW MEXICO

LOSS

156

72.7

MONTANA

14

10

89.9

CLEMSON

7

-1.6

-2

-

15

88.3

MISSOURI

10

2

96.7

WEST
VIRGINIA

2

-28.2

-17

WEST VIRGINIA

WIN

216

68.5

MORGAN
STATE

15

12

88.8

KENTUCKY

1

-6.4

-9.5

WAKE FOREST

LOSS

49

82.4

WAKE
FOREST

9

105

76.9

CORNELL

12

16

88.3

WISCONSIN

4

-11.4

-4.5

WISCONSIN

LOSS

18

88.0

WASHINGTON

11

-1.7

-2

-

26

86.3

NEW
MEXICO

3

15

88.3

MISSOURI

10

2

96.7

WEST
VIRGINIA

2

-8.4

-6

WEST VIRGINIA

WIN

12

88.8

KENTUCKY

1

-11.9

-8

KENTUCKY

WIN

105

76.9

CORNELL

12

18

88.0

WASHINGTON

11

2

96.7

WEST
VIRGINIA

2

-8.7

-4.5

WEST VIRGINIA

WIN

12

88.8

KENTUCKY

1

-4

WEST VIRGINIA

WIN

2

96.7

WEST
VIRGINIA

2

-7.9

Finally, here is the South, winner of which would play East
Region winner West Virginia in the Final Four:

SBPI

SBPI

Vegas

SBPI

Rank

Rating

Seed

Line

Line

Pick

Grade

1

100.0

DUKE

1

-32

-24

DUKE

WIN

231

68.0

ARKANSAS
PB

16

14

88.4

CALIFORNIA

8

-1.8

-1

CALIFORNIA

WIN

24

86.6

LOUISVILLE

9

5

91.7

TEXAS
A&M

5

-10.9

-2.5

TEXAS A&M

WIN

69

80.8

UTAH
STATE

12

6

90.3

PURDUE

4

-9.4

-4.5

PURDUE

WIN

66

80.9

SIENA

13

44

83.6

NOTRE
DAME

6

-2.5

OLD DOMINION

WIN

27

86.0

OLD
DOMINION

11

-2.4

22

86.7

BAYLOR

3

-11.5

-10

BAYLOR

LOSS

125

75.2

SAM
HOUSTON

14

57

81.6

RICHMOND

7

-0.3

-1

ST MARYS

WIN

63

81.3

ST
MARYS

10

8

90.2

VILLANOVA

2

-23.1

-16.5

VILLANOVA

LOSS

247

67.1

ROBERT
MORRIS

15

1

100.0

DUKE

1

-11.6

-7

DUKE

WIN

14

88.4

CALIFORNIA

8

5

91.7

TEXAS
A&M

5

-1.4

-2

PURDUE

WIN

6

90.3

PURDUE

4

27

86.0

OLD
DOMINION

11

22

86.7

BAYLOR

3

-0.7

-4

OLD DOMINION

LOSS

63

81.3

ST
MARYS

10

8

90.2

VILLANOVA

2

-8.9

-4

VILLANOVA

LOSS

1

100.0

DUKE

1

-9.7

-8

DUKE

WIN

6

90.3

PURDUE

4

22

86.7

BAYLOR

3

-5.4

-4.5

BAYLOR

WIN

63

81.3

ST
MARYS

10

1

100.0

DUKE

1

-13.3

-4.5

DUKE

WIN

22

86.7

BAYLOR

3

Lastly, here is how the Final Four bracket worked out:

SBPI

SBPI

Vegas

SBPI

Rank

Rating

Seed

Line

Line

Pick

Grade

17

88.1

MICHIGAN
ST

5

11

89.2

BUTLER

5

-1.1

-1.5

-

2

96.7

WEST
VIRGINIA

2

1

100.0

DUKE

1

-3.3

-2.5

DUKE

WIN

11

89.2

BUTLER

5

1

100.0

DUKE

1

-10.8

-7

DUKE

LOSS

Here were the ATS records per the SBPI plays laid out above:

RECORDS

1ST

15-11-6

57.7%

2ND

7-7-2

50.0%

S16

7-0-1

100.0%

E8

3-1-0

75.0%

F4

1-0-1

100.0%

TITLE

0-1-0

0.0%

TOTAL

33-20-10

62.3%

In addition to cashing 62.3% of the 63 NCAA Tournament games
that season the SBPI posted a PERFECT 7-0 ATS mark when it had one team favored
while Vegas was on other side!Including
that point along with what we see above – the SBPI posted an 11-2 mark in the
Sweet 16 & deeper rounds showing it is extremely accurate when slotting how
“strong” these teams truly are, especially when we get to the “cream of the
crop” teams that advance deep versus playing “lines” in the earlier rounds.

All the NCAA Tournaments since then (only ones we tested in
this fashion) have a similar ATS winning percentage – and if asked for specific
tournaments we would be happy to share those results.

Starting next week we will begin our countdown of the Top
100 College Basketball teams according to SBPI of the last 12 seasons.

Thanks for reading, if you have any questions please feel
free to reach out.

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