A glowing six-foot diameter sphere suspended from the ceiling is part of a 3-D display system that illuminates animations of global environmental data, such as hurricanes, clouds, vegetation, and ocean currents

The image above is from GOES-16 (Ctsy. CIRA) and you can easily see the dry dusty Saharan air to the North and east of Tropical Depression 4. This layer of dusty air is called the SAL for Saharan Air Layer, and it often inhibits tropical cyclones. It’s already impacting TD 4. The new GOES-16 continues to wow we meteorologists. Truly, a new era is underway. Update 12 AM EDT 7 July) …

The Europeans are now testing a new version of their ECMWF model with a resolution of around 9 km, and so far it looks very good. Not that the present model isn’t since we forecasters now depend on it heavily for long range forecasts beyond 2-3 days. The NOAA GFS model is almost always the least accurate and that is not my subjective opinion. Look at the skill scores below …

Raul Grijalva, the ranking member of the House Committee on Natural Resources, sent a hot letter this week to the Secretary of the Interior. It was about the removal of the first line of a USGS press release last week. The press release was about a newly published paper showing a dramatic increase in coastal flooding as sea level rises, and I wrote about it last week here. Even Richard Nixon …

There has been a bit of a firestorm in the last 24 hours over an AP report that the NWS decided to stick with its snowfall forecast even after last minute model guidance showed lesser amounts were likely. There’s a story in the Washington Post and Seth Borenstein at the AP broke the story. Here are some thoughts on this based on 37 years of forecasting, and I will say …

More images from GOES-16 today. This is a geo-color image at 5-minute intervals. The new satellite has sensors that allow images in almost true color and it sends an image every 5 minutes vs 4 times per hour. Images every 3- seconds are possible as well. This is still non-operational test imagery. See my previous post with the first images from lighting mapper.

As the only Federal agency charged with water prediction and warning responsibilities, NOAA is uniquely positioned to address water challenges facing the nation – what does this mean, especially with a proposed reduced budget? And how/why should non-scientists care?

The Daily Mail says that NOAA is manipulating the climate data! No, really? That’s certainly a first for them. NOT. Here is a graph they published as proof. Now, there is just one tiny problem, well actually, there are a bunch of them. The Hadley (UK) data is based on an average from 1961-1990 while the NOAA data they plotted is based on 1901-2000. The baseline choice does not make …

The GOES-R (Now named GOES-16) satellite is working! NOAA released the first images and animations today. The satellite is still in the test stage and will be for months but we should start seeing non-operational data by May. The image above is a high-resolution full disc shot. Below are some short loops from the ABI sensor. The colour images are made from a blue light channel and a red light …

The first image from GOES-R will be out tomorrow.The “first light” image will be released in Seattle tomorrow at the AMS Annual Meeting, and we will start to see irregular imagery in May as testing continues. From what I am hearing, the instruments have so far all come online working as expected. Oh, and. GOES-R is now GOES 16 by the way. Once operational they take on a number. To …

Every year the AMS publishes the NOAA Extreme Events Report, which highlights the climate change connection to extreme weather. Some events have a slight connection to the warming of the planet, but many are highly influenced by the rising temperatures, and the rapid loss of ocean ice. It takes about a year to put this study together so this edition is looking at the extreme weather of 2015. Click the …

“Observations in 2016 showed a continuation of long-term Arctic warming trends which reveals the interdependency of physical and biological Arctic systems, contributing to a growing recognition that the Arctic is an integral part of the globe, and increasing the need for comprehensive communication of Arctic change to diverse user audiences. “

All looks good for the launch of the GOES-R Weather Satellite Saturday evening at 5:42 PM. I am at the Kennedy Space Center as an invited guest to watch the launch, and today we had the rare opportunity to see the famous VAB building. The video below is from the roof, what an amazing view! I chatted with one of the Air Force weather meteorologists and they see no issues …

It was by a razor thin margin over 2015, but this September was the hottest on record based on NASA GISS data. NOAA does a separate analysis and puts it as number two after last Sept. NOAA did report that the land temps. in Sept. were the hottest on record, beating last year. Here is the stunning statistic: September 2016 was the 381st consecutive month with above average global temperatures. …

Meteorologists have been talking about the long-range model issues for several years now, and many viewers of local weather already know that their local forecaster depends on the European long-range model much of the time. The superior performance of the European ECMWF global model made news during Hurricane Sandy, and the public likely first heard about the issue then. Congress did, because due to public pressure (and embarrassment?) NOAA finally …

Matthew is gaining strength again tonight, and Florida and South Carolina are still going to see a significant (perhaps severe) storm. If the eye stays out to sea, it will not be as bad as it could be, but if it crosses just inland, much greater damage and a major storm surge is likely. Still a rather large disagreement between the higher res. regional models and the global models today. The …

From NOAA today: Global highlights: August 2016 The August temperature across global land and ocean surfaces was 1.66°F above the 20th century average of 60.1°F. This was the highest for August in the 1880–2016 record, surpassing the previous record set in 2015 by 0.09°F. August 2016 was the highest monthly temperature departure since April 2016 and tied with September 2015 as the eighth highest monthly temperature departure among all months …

Tropical Update : I’m not going to post any specific model data since there is still quite a bit of disagreement, and any individual run this far out is worthless, but that said: My concern that a tropical cyclone will threaten the SE U.S. in 5-7 days is growing rapidly. The system is looking much healthier on the satellite images tonight. Increased convection and shear seems less. The wind shear …