AussieDodger wrote:Yeah Darvish isn't anywhere near that top level of Hamels/Verlander/Felix

He is one skill away from getting there, his BB/9 of 4.19 wasn't up to scratch. His K/9 (10.4) and limiting of XBH were ace-like, so if he can repeat those and weigh in with a BB/9 of around 2.5......... $$$$

First year in the US, cut him some slack. Gio controlled his walk a bit last year and he was fantastic. Darvish doesn't have that far to go. Hamels in front of that Phillies defense might not be pretty.

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bayside wrote:Ok so on Mock Draft Central I see hes being taken as the 9th SP off the board which does seem too high. Interestingly though, his ADP is a few picks lower than it is on Yahoo

EDIT - holy crap! Curtis Grandersons ADP on MDC is currently 12.Im the hugest Grandy believer on this site but wow, is that just a sample size issue or are you guys really taking him at the first turn?

I've got Grandy 17th overall. Can't see taking him over any of the guys I have ahead of him so 12 seems kinda silly.

bayside wrote:Ok so on Mock Draft Central I see hes being taken as the 9th SP off the board which does seem too high. Interestingly though, his ADP is a few picks lower than it is on Yahoo

EDIT - holy crap! Curtis Grandersons ADP on MDC is currently 12.Im the hugest Grandy believer on this site but wow, is that just a sample size issue or are you guys really taking him at the first turn?

I've got Grandy 17th overall. Can't see taking him over any of the guys I have ahead of him so 12 seems kinda silly.

I took him at #19 in pondscum this morning, and I'm a Darvish believer but not over Hamels/Cain.

AussieDodger wrote:Yeah Darvish isn't anywhere near that top level of Hamels/Verlander/Felix

He is one skill away from getting there, his BB/9 of 4.19 wasn't up to scratch. His K/9 (10.4) and limiting of XBH were ace-like, so if he can repeat those and weigh in with a BB/9 of around 2.5......... $$$$

First year in the US, cut him some slack. Gio controlled his walk a bit last year and he was fantastic. Darvish doesn't have that far to go. Hamels in front of that Phillies defense might not be pretty.

He's completely under-appreciated because it took him 2/3rds of his rookie season to adjust to American baseball. Rarely do you see a pitcher turn the corner as clearly and deliberately as Darvish did in August -- and there are plenty of articles out there explaining how he did it.

He may not crack the elite trio of Kershaw/Verlander/Price yet, but Darvish is definitely worthy of being lumped into the next tier. The risk is worth the higher ceiling compared to Sabathia, Cain, etc., who have settled into their statistical norms and are less likely to light up the fantasy world with a mind-blowing career year.

There is very little upside in Darvish over someone like Hamels or Cain and just a lot more risk. Also really temper expectations trying to base a breakout out on the last month of a season. How much of it is him finding something and how much of it is half the teams having given up and playing scrubs by then.

Ender wrote:There is very little upside in Darvish over someone like Hamels or Cain and just a lot more risk. Also really temper expectations trying to base a breakout out on the last month of a season. How much of it is him finding something and how much of it is half the teams having given up and playing scrubs by then.

It wasn't just a month, it was his last 8 games (25% of the year). Five of those games were against either TB, DET, or LAA. He had to learn how to throw a different baseball against a more stingy strike zone, so there's not a lot of reason to brush it off as luck. All of the stats show he made a huge improvement in control as the season went on. This isn't some has-been prospect who had a hot stretch at age 29.

Yes but he was the 40th best SP or so until those last 8 starts. You can't just magically ignore the rest of the season. I have seen him drafted over Hamels in almost every 'expert' draft I've looked at, it just isn't worth it.

bayside wrote:Maybe the "experts" just dont know wtf they are doing?In all the mocks I've done, he has not gone before Hamels a single time.

I doubt ALL experts rank him so high. But there will always be a few that do. I think it's very possible to believe the best pitcher Japan has seen in awhile could come here and do very well. Maybe he needed time to adjust. The stuff is there as evidenced by his super high K/9. The people who believe it is a question of mentality and not skill see a guy with his stuff hitting a relatively high ceiling immediately, and they totally buy into the strong September finish.

Me personally? I think he's still too wild to be taken that high and will end up being a Tim Lincecum type.