Geography: South East, Buckinghamshire. Part of Aylesbury Vale council area and part of the Wycombe council area.

Main population centres: Aylesbury, Wendover, Stokenchurch.

Profile: Aylesbury constituency is tightly drawn around the prosperous town of Aylesbury itself to the North, but in the South widens to include a swathe of countryside around the Chiltern Hills (Coombe Hill, the highest point in the Chilterns, lies just South West of Wendover, near the Prime Minister`s country residence of Chequers), including small market towns and villages like Wendover, Stokenchurch and Great Missenden..

Politics: The seat was once the pocket borough of the Rothschild family, but has been Tory since 1924. Aylesbury itself has tended towards the Liberal Democrats, but the picturesque semi-rural commuter towns and villages to the South vote reliably Conservative and the seat as a whole normally has a substantial Conservative majority. In 2015 UKIP took second place, having campaigning on issue of HS2.

Current MP

DAVID LIDINGTON (Conservative) Born 1956, Lambeth. Educated at Haberdashers Askes Boys School and Cambridge University. Former special advisor. Contested Vauxhall 1987. First elected as MP for Aylesbury in 1992. PPS to Michael Howard 1994-1997, PPS to William Hague 1997-1999, shadow agriculture secretary 2002-2003, shadow Northern Ireland secretary 2003-2007. Minister for Europe since 2012.

Past Results

2010

Con:

27736 (52%)

Lab:

6695 (13%)

LDem:

15118 (28%)

UKIP:

3613 (7%)

MAJ:

12618 (24%)

2005*

Con:

25253 (49%)

Lab:

9540 (19%)

LDem:

14187 (28%)

UKIP:

2479 (5%)

MAJ:

11066 (22%)

2001

Con:

23230 (47%)

Lab:

11388 (23%)

LDem:

13221 (27%)

UKIP:

1248 (3%)

MAJ:

10009 (20%)

1997

Con:

25426 (44%)

Lab:

12759 (22%)

LDem:

17007 (30%)

Oth:

166 (0%)

MAJ:

8419 (15%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics

2015 Candidates

DAVID LIDINGTON (Conservative) See above.

WILL CASS (Labour) Educated at Westminster University. Business development manager.

I think few conclusions can be drawn from such a very low turnout election. I am surprised that the poll took place two days before Christmas, as there is no urgency to fill the seat, as there would be if control of the council hinged on the result.

The Lib Dems actually got more votes than in May, so a decent performance for them.

There is certainly a pattern of the LDs doing particularly well in some local by-elections… I expect because they put more resources into them than CON and LAB do, rather than because there is a genuine surge in support for them. Very silly to read much into a few-hundred voters two days before Christmas though!

To be pedantic (sorry) there is currently no First Secretary of State. Where this has been the case in the past the Leader of the House has often taken PMQs so this is not without precedent. I imagine Lidington will actually been rather good at it – he’s quick on his feet, unlike both May and Corbyn, and dealt well with hostile questioning during his six years as Minister for Europe, often being sent out to fend off the latest round of Eurosceptic outrage at something or other from the Tory backbenches.

That Emily Thornberry is leading for Labour is a bit more extraordinary. But I guess they wanted a woman and Valerie Vaz (current Shadow Leader of the House) is considered too inexperienced. Tom Watson presumably doesn’t fancy it – Angela Eagle led for Labour vs George Osborne when she was still in the shadow cabinet.

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