Iran shows off long-range, armed, Predator-lookalike drone

Iranian military officials have revealed a new domestically built armed unmanned aircraft that they say is capable of reaching much of the rest of the Middle East, including Israel. The drone, called the Shahed-129, was shown on Iranian television yesterday. It bears a striking resemblance to the US military's MQ-1 Predator (except that its V-shaped tailfin faces up, and not down).

Iranian television video of the Shahed-129.

General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps' aviation wing, said the drone has a range of over 1,200 miles and can stay airborne for up to 24 hours. The Shahed (or "Witness") drone can carry missiles or bombs, as well as provide aerial remote surveillance.

It's not clear whether any technology from the CIA-operated Lockheed Martin RQ-170 (a "stealth" surveillance drone that was captured by the Iranians in December) was incorporated into the Shahed-129. But the aircraft nearly doubles the range of Iran's previous drones, including the Karrar jet-powered bomber drone unveiled in 2010.

The unveiling of the Karrar bomber drone in August of 2010 by

Iran has claimed to be copying the RQ-170 as well, which Iranian engineers claim was captured by using GPS jamming and spoofing to fool the drone into flying off course.

The cruise speed (speed for maximum range) is typically a fair bit higher than the loiter speed (speed for maximum endurance). If you look at a typical U-shaped aircraft power (or fuel flow) vs airspeed curve, the speed for maximum endurance is at the bottom of the curve and the speed for best range is the point where the curve lies tangent to a line drawn from the origin. The numbers quoted in aircraft performance figures are always taken for the flight condition which provides the best range or endurance, not given for a single flight condition achieving both simultaneously.

Anyway, it makes sense that this aircraft looks similar to other drones, like the Predator or even a baby Global Hawk. In a vehicle like this you want to maximize endurance, which means long slender high aspect ratio wings and a skinny low drag fuselage. Since all UAVs are essentially "fly-by-wire" no matter what you do, the control mixing for a V-tail is free, and can save you a bit on drag.

Anyone else have the REM song "It's the End of the World" in their head while reading this?

Nope. America is the best country in the world at building these things (mostly because its manned fighters are so bloated an overwrought that even the cheap ones cost $80 million a pop), and has the best infrastructure to support them and they STILL fall out the sky at an alarming rate. Case in point: the RQ-170 itself. Iran doesn't even have enough satellites in orbit to stay in contact with this slow moving craft for its whole flight. The manned Iranian air force is far, far more capable than this experiment. Thus, the game hasn't changed. Not for foreign states at least. As a method of tracking its own people, this is an advance.

Articuno wrote:

Another reminder that Iran isn't a country of goat farmers with 40 year old AK47s... taking the hint yet, Israel?

What hint would that be? What kind of reminder are you talking about? If Israel though Iran was "a country of goat farmers with 40 year old AK47s" they wouldn't be assassinating scientists, writing crippling malware, or planing air strikes against nuclear bunkers. Your post makes no sense.

Anyone else have the REM song "It's the End of the World" in their head while reading this?

Nope. America is the best country in the world at building these things (mostly because its manned fighters are so bloated an overwrought that even the cheap ones cost $80 million a pop), and has the best infrastructure to support them and they STILL fall out the sky at an alarming rate. Case in point: the RQ-170 itself. Iran doesn't even have enough satellites in orbit to stay in contact with this slow moving craft for its whole flight. The manned Iranian air force is far, far more capable than this experiment. Thus, the game hasn't changed. Not for foreign states at least. As a method of tracking its own people, this is an advance.

Articuno wrote:

Another reminder that Iran isn't a country of goat farmers with 40 year old AK47s... taking the hint yet, Israel?

What hint would that be? What kind of reminder are you talking about? If Israel though Iran was "a country of goat farmers with 40 year old AK47s" they wouldn't be assassinating scientists, writing crippling malware, or planing air strikes against nuclear bunkers. Your post makes no sense.

Beat me to the punch, I was going to say the same exact thing Articuno. As a side note, I wonder how long these wouldn't be detected by NORAD if launched by a country above or below the US.

1200 miles / 24hrs. So it has a cruise speed of 50mph? I wonder if Israel has any Cessnas set up for air-to-air?

This thing likely has a radar signature of a large bird, meaning that you either have to eyeball it or detect it via exhaust temperature unless you're prepared to go after every eagle, vulture or other high flying, large wingspan bird in the area.

Nope. America is the best country in the world at building these things (mostly because its manned fighters are so bloated an overwrought that even the cheap ones cost $80 million a pop), and has the best infrastructure to support them and they STILL fall out the sky at an alarming rate. Case in point: the RQ-170 itself. Iran doesn't even have enough satellites in orbit to stay in contact with this slow moving craft for its whole flight. The manned Iranian air force is far, far more capable than this experiment. Thus, the game hasn't changed. Not for foreign states at least. As a method of tracking its own people, this is an advance.

The A-10 cost $7m a pop in the 70's. Triple or even quadruple that say they cost $30m a pop. I'd take 4 A-10s over a single F-35 in every single close air support scenario. Go Ugly Early and Save Money (while kicking serious ass)

1200 miles / 24hrs. So it has a cruise speed of 50mph? I wonder if Israel has any Cessnas set up for air-to-air?

This thing likely has a radar signature of a large bird, meaning that you either have to eyeball it or detect it via exhaust temperature unless you're prepared to go after every eagle, vulture or other high flying, large wingspan bird in the area.

How many eagles have 60 foot wingspans?

UAV's are roughly the same size as normal planes, just a lot lighter and with almost no heat signature.

Besides it's a safe bet Iran has precisely ONE of these drones, and it isn't the most reliable piece of kit. Also, the operators aren't particularly skilled because Iran lacks the resources to train their personnel, not to mention the cultural differences. In the west it's drill drill drill every single day. Over there they are lucky if they get one good training per month.

I would think this would make some of their neighboring countries a little nervous. It's just more fodder for the U.S. to start World War 3 over in their part of the world cause let's face it, it won't be happening on U.S. soil.

Remember the "captured US drone from last year". It takes more than a year to reverse-engineer anything let alone a flying aircraft. Typical flight tests take 2-4 years just to do the first level straight-and-level flight tests. A working unmanned aerial vehicle? 4-8 years. A third-world country under financial siege? Not likely.

If they say it, you can gut check it as a lie BECAUSE it came from them. When Jane's says they have UAVs it will be believable.

1) Iran declaring they have UAV is well. Nice joke of the day.2) Commenters saying that Iran is not capable lack resources/training/personal/will is not so funny.

Get to your heads that Russia and/or china are both more than happy to sponsor any regime that give troubles to USA. Especially if said help would cost less than countermeasures taken by US.

So Iran could store a deal with any of the two to give them this "spoofed" US UAV in exchange of tech, and/or prototype. All parties are happy. Or Iran could obtain on-site help from science military personnel of any of those countries.

For one thing the less stable East is the bigger oil price is (biggest export revenue for Russia). And more attention US need to focus there (the more remote from china the better).

Remember the "captured US drone from last year". It takes more than a year to reverse-engineer anything let alone a flying aircraft. Typical flight tests take 2-4 years just to do the first level straight-and-level flight tests. A working unmanned aerial vehicle? 4-8 years. A third-world country under financial siege? Not likely.

If they say it, you can gut check it as a lie BECAUSE it came from them. When Jane's says they have UAVs it will be believable.

E

Because Iran clearly started development on a technology that has been around since the mid-nineties only after it captured a downed UAV a year ago.

Remember the "captured US drone from last year". It takes more than a year to reverse-engineer anything let alone a flying aircraft. Typical flight tests take 2-4 years just to do the first level straight-and-level flight tests. A working unmanned aerial vehicle? 4-8 years. A third-world country under financial siege? Not likely.

If they say it, you can gut check it as a lie BECAUSE it came from them. When Jane's says they have UAVs it will be believable.

E

Sure, but the Photoshop wasn't about them having those missiles at all, it was the number being test fired at once that they faked. And this drone isn't based on the captured stealth drone, this is more like the standard UAVs we have over there, which I'm sure have been captured & disassembled years ago. We've been sending troops and drones over there for over a decade, so is that enough time?

This thing likely has a radar signature of a large bird, meaning that you either have to eyeball it or detect it via exhaust temperature unless you're prepared to go after every eagle, vulture or other high flying, large wingspan bird in the area.

You're assuming they have the technology and testing to test this low radar signature drone. Not everything can be calculated on a simulator before trying it out in the real world. Even with the knowledge everyone know now how to make things less radar detectable.

Then again for all we know this plane is just a large ass model airplane with basic flight capabilities. We've seen so many youtube videos of people strapping camera onto model airplanes. Making a large one that fires missles isn't that hard. Just making one that doesn't get shot down, can hit a target, etc etc. requires a bit more thought.

What would happen if any country flew a drone over the US? Do you think that would count as an act of war?The US is starting to become the most hypocritical nation of the world.

We have no proof that this captured drone WAS overflying Iran. By some accounts, it was monitoring the Afghan side of the Iran-Afghanistan border, when the American operators lost control of it... We should be careful of jumping to conclusions here. But even if the USA IS overflying Iran, I'd say this is fully justified because of Iran's past behaviour toward the USA and its citizens, and because of Iran's breach of the NPT.

The A-10 cost $7m a pop in the 70's. Triple or even quadruple that say they cost $30m a pop. I'd take 4 A-10s over a single F-35 in every single close air support scenario. Go Ugly Early and Save Money (while kicking serious ass)

Inflation says a 1970$7 million A-10A would cost 2010$23 million. However, I find it EXTREMELY hard to believe that the USAF would or could field a new-build A-10 for $23 million. 2012$50 million would be my expected floor.

But even if the USA IS overflying Iran, I'd say this is fully justified because of Iran's past behaviour toward the USA and its citizens, and because of Iran's breach of the NPT.

Flaunting the NNPT? Yeah, I could buy that. However, Iran hasn't really done anything directed against the US since the embassy siege. Even their actions in Iraq were and are about creating a bulwark against the Saudis, their real rival. The Saudis, being Wahhabist, are staunchly anti-Shia and will support Iraq's Sunnis and Syria's rebels as a method of checking and containing Iran.

Israel, having co-developed anti-missile missiles with the US for 20 years, is not going to be destroyed or deterred by a handful of 1st gen Iranian IRBMs with 1st gen nuclear warheads. Not with their hundred Jericho IIs sitting in hardened silos, at least. Now, the conservative hardliners currently in control in Jerusalem don't want an avowed enemy to have nukes, but realistically, Iran doesn't particularly care about Israel. In fact, the Ayatollahs benefit from "anti-Zionist" propaganda. It's their bogeyman and it serves a valuable purpose. Besides that, Israel doesn't have the heavy bombers and munitions to actually destroy Iran's program at this point.

Washington doesn't care about Tehran, it doesn't desire a nuclear Iran, but it doesn't impact US interests all that much. US ABM tech is even more developed than Israel's. The American concern is 10 years down the road. Washington doesn't want 20 other states following the example of the Islamic Republic and the DPRK and going nuclear. It doesn't want a nuclear Africa or South America or East Asia (beyond China and NPRK). The more people that have them, the greater the chance of a nuclear exchange between any two states. At best, a regional nuclear war would cause trillions in damage economically. At worst, it escalates into WW3.

The US, honestly, is playing on a far higher level above and beyond Iran. Totally different scale of concern. Tehran wants to stay in power another 10 years. The US wants to stop WW3 before it starts. Is that a good enough justification? Maybe, but that doesn't matter. The US will overfly Iran all it wants because it CAN and Iran can't stop it. Justification is for Election Tuesday. The whole rest of the year is far more Machiavellian.

Sean Gallagher / Sean is Ars Technica's IT Editor. A former Navy officer, systems administrator, and network systems integrator with 20 years of IT journalism experience, he lives and works in Baltimore, Maryland.