Re-conceptualising the Energy and Security Complex in the Eastern Mediterranean

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Filippos Proedrou

American College of Thessaloniki

Abstract

Recent gas discoveries off Cyprus have elevated tensions and created an energy and security complex in the Eastern Mediterranean. While the mainstream understanding of this complex focuses on energy as a zero-sum game that will be played out in accordance with geopolitical alliances and dividing lines, this paper aims to counter this view. It considers energy as a critical issue that can be positively utilised within the framework of integrated markets and interdependence and as a positive-sum game. It also regards it a potential game changer that can propel a chain of conciliatory moves. The analysis culminates with the designation of three scenarios in which this complex can evolve. It concludes that it is up to the main actors, on the basis of their particular conceptualisation of the issues at hand, to determine whether energy will be used in a conflictive or assuaging way, deteriorating tensions in the region, or, alternatively, making energy a crucial pillar of stabilisation and rapprochement.

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