This morning the Critics’ Choice Award nominees were announced. One of the most reliable guides to the eventual Oscar nominees, along with the Golden Globes, the various Guilds and the BAFTAS. You can pretty much assume that 80% (or more) of the Oscar categories will be filled with nominees here. Also announced were the Online Film Critics Society Awards – thoughts on both after the jump.

Looking very likely that 7,8,9 or even 10 of these films will be the eventual nominees for Best Picture. Sadly missing here is Foxcatcher, one heavily tipped to feature. You will see that it is largely absent from these nominees. Unbroken, Whiplash, Gone Girl and Nightcrawler the most likely to drop out? Very happy to see Nightcrawler featured, and as it gathers support in other categories it might sneak in. The winner: Boyhood or Birdman.

No Carrell for Foxcatcher. He was nominated at the Globes and the SAG. With HUGE support around for The Grand BudapestHotel, Fiennes could find himself in the final five, but he is facing a stacked crowd (with Spall in Mr Turner also in contention). Gyllenhaal again nominated for Nightcrawler. I did not expect this. Keaton the likely, and deserved favourite.

The same five from the SAG and Golden Globe (Drama), plus Marion Cotillard, curiously absent there. I re-watched Gone Girl over the weekend and what struck me was the amount of screen time assigned to Pike. It is a questionable lead performance. I expect Moore to win this for Still Alice, though her toughest challengers are Cotillard and Jones.

The same five from the SAG and the Globes, plus Josh Brolin for Inherent Vice.

Great to see some love for Anderson’s film, which is just opening in the U.S this week. Four of these men are locks, you would think. Ruffalo features as just one of two nominations for Foxcatcher. I don’t want to predict this category. I am just hoping that Ruffalo wins.

This will probably go to Coltrane, but I really enjoyed Jaeden Liberher in St Vincent.

Best Acting Ensemble

Birdman Boyhood The Grand Budapest Hotel The Imitation Game Into the Woods Selma

I still find it curious that Gone Girl has never appeared in this category and that Pike’s performance has always been singled out. I don’t care for the film that much, but the cast is excellent. Birdman to win.

This is a wild category. We have had Morten Tyldum and Mike Leigh nominated here too in the past weeks. Fincher surprised with a Golden Globe nomination for Best Director, and follows it up here. This time it is Jolie that is the surprise. Reviews for Unbroken have not been good. A shame for Bennett Miller, who seems to be on the outside. Foxcatcher is his best film to date, in my opinion. Lets assume that DuVernay, Inarritu and Linklater are locks for the Oscar (no?). Linklater to win here.

Why are there six nominees here and five for Original? I haven’t seen a few of these yet, so hard to judge. I have to assume PTA had a much tougher job adapting Pynchon’s crazy novel than anyone else here. Flynn’s adaptation is ‘too faithful’, and her story goes a bit haywire anyway, while there is nothing particularly interesting about Wild or The Imitation Game.

Foxcatcher Guardians of the Galaxy The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies Into the Woods Maleficent

Best Visual Effects

Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Edge of Tomorrow
Guardians of the Galaxy
The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
Interstellar
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

Best Animated Feature

Big Hero 6 The Book of Life The Boxtrolls How to Train Your Dragon 2 The Lego Movie

These seem to be the Oscar five. No The Tale of the Princess Kaguya, after several wins at Critics awards? The Lego Movie to win.

Best Foreign Language Film

Force Majeure Ida Leviathan Two Days, One Night Wild Tales

Notable absentees: Mommy and Winter Sleep.
These five could certainly be the five nominated for the Oscar. Though, Ida is perhaps the only lock.

Best Documentary Feature

Citizenfour Glen Campbell: I’ll Be Me Jodorowsky’s Dune Last Days in Vietnam Life Itself The Overnighters

Save for Glen Campbell, the other five nominees here are on the Oscar Short List. Citizen Four and Life Itself have cemented themselves as favourites. Not sure who is going to round out the field, but Last Days in Vietnam and The Overnighters have been well received.

And there are even more – I haven’t included some of the categories, like best action film, but should you wish to view them all, a full list of Critics Choice Award nominees can be viewed at Deadline.

Online Film Critics Society Winners

Also announced this morning. Not much to comment on, I thought these might have been a bit more adventurous. The Grand Budapest Hotel is a pleasant surprise as Best Picture.