Thursday, February 25, 2016

A calculation based on the budget papers of the Gujarat government suggests that the Gross State Domestic Price (GSDP) at constant prices, calculating by deducting inflationary factors, would grow by 6.7 per cent in fiscal 2015-16, which is approximately one per cent less than the national average estimated by the Government of India – 7.6 per cent.The calculation, officials say, has been reportedly arrived at on the basis of the data released by the Gujarat government’s “Statement Under the Gujarat Fiscal Responsibility Act, 2005”, released on February 24. However, the figure, said to have been "unofficially" revealed by state officials, does not find a place in the Statement.
Other budget papers reveal that, at constant prices, Gujarat’s GSDP growth rate was 7.7 per cent in 2014-15, 8.3 per cent in 2013-14, and 10.8 per cent in 2012-13, which was all through was higher than the national average.
The latest calculation is likely to prove to be a jolt of the protagonists of the so-called Gujarat model, who have long claimed that the state’s economy would consistently grow at a “double digit” rate of growth. Not only this has proved to be incorrect; in 2015-16 it is worse than the national average.

Gujarat GSDP rate at current prices

While it is not known what is the basis of the GSDP growth rate calculation for 2015-16, yet, the Statement reveals that, despite the Gujarat government’s huge claims of major economic strides, Gujarat’s GSDP at current prices (without deducing inflationary factors) in 2015-16 would be 10 per cent. This is the lowest since 2004-05.
In value terms, it was Rs 8.95 lakh crore in 2014-15, which is likely to rise to Rs 9.85 lakh crore in 2015-16. The Statement goes on to predict that, in the year 2016-17, it would rise by 10.99 per cent, to Rs 10.94 lakh crore.
Ironically, despite this, the Statement claims that the State of Gujarat has consistently grown at a rate that has been higher than the national average”, even as pointing out that the average annual rate of growth at constant prices between 2004-05 and 2010-11 was 16.99 per cent, which went down to 12.94 per cent between 2011-12 and 2015-16.
In 2005-06, the GSDP rate of growth in Gujarat was 20.3 per cent, in 2006-07 it was 15.9 per cent, in 2007-08 it was 16.1 per cent, in 2008-09 it was 11.7 per cent, in 2009-10 it was 17.2 per cent, in 2010-11 it was 20.9 per cent, in 2011-12 it was 16.1 per cent, in 2012-13 it was 17.6 per cent, in 2014-15 it was 13.3 per cent, and in 2014-15 it was 11 per cent.

Gujarat's liabilities: Rs 2.25 lakh crore

In yet another revelation, the Statement says that the Gujarat government’s liabilities (or total debts) are likely to reach Rs 2.25 lakh crore at the end of fiscal 2015-16, up from Rs 2.02 lakh crore in 2014-15, a rise of 11.19 per cent. This includes what is called public debt of Rs 1.82 lakh crore in 2015-16, up from 1.63 lakh crore a year earlier.
The biggest portion of the public debt in 2015-16 are market loans and power loans, which are to the tune of Rs 1.19 lakh crore, taken at the rate of 8.16 per cent interest. As for loans from banks and financial institutes, which is just Rs 8,101 crore, taken at the rate of 6.27 per cent interest.

1 comment:

I strctly doubt the data you have collected. GSDP of gujarat in FY 2013-14 was Rs. 7,65,638 crore.And public debt of gujarat in 2014-15 stood at Rs 1,65,742 crore.GSDP figures for the year 2014-15 & 2015-16 are not available.