Wednesday, December 23, 2009

AFC Playoff Tiebreaker Breakdown

With Week 15 in the AFC now in the books, more than half of the conference is still alive for sixth playoff spots. Specifically, 12 teams are fighting for four spots that have not been locked up. This will take you through all the tiebreaker situations and scenarios to let you know which team holds the advantage one what tiebreakers down the stretch (similar to the breakdown done for the complicated NFC playoff picture last season).

Here's a look at the current standings in the AFC:

1

Indianapolis - *

14-0

2

San Diego - z

11-3

3

New England

9-5

4

Cincinnati

9-5

5

Baltimore

8-6

6

Denver

8-6

7

Jacksonville

7-7

8

Miami

7-7

9

N.Y. Jets

7-7

10

Pittsburgh

7-7

11

Tennessee

7-7

12

Houston

7-7

* - clinched home field advantage, z - clinched division

Lots of teams still alive in the playoff hunt with half a dozen teams at 7-7. Obviously next week's games will go a long way to eliminate a chunk of the field, but for now everyone still has a chance. So with everyone still mathematically alive, here's an idea of why certain teams Jacksonville are #7 while others like Tennessee and Houston would need even more help. We'll keep Indianapolis out of all our analysis as they are already locked into the #1 seed. There are 11 other teams however still jockeying for position.

For this exercise, we ignore the head-to-head step as it takes a simple glance at the regular season to solve. We're digging deeper. First, the best W-L-T percentage in the conference. Whoever has the best conference record gets the higher seed. For example, while the Ravens have a head-to-head win over the Broncos this year (tiebreaker #1), had those teams not played, the Ravens would still have the #5 seed to the Broncos #6 because of a better record in AFC games.

Team

SD

NE

CIN

BAL

JAC

DEN

MIA

NYJ

PIT

HOU

TEN

AFCW-L-T

8-3

6-4

6-4

6-4

6-4

6-5

5-5

5-5

4-6

4-6

4-7

Win %

.727

.600

.600

.600

.600

.545

.500

.500

.400

.400

.364

Rank

1

T-2

T-2

T-2

T-2

6

T-7

T-7

T-9

T-9

11

So based on conference records, right now San Diego can clinch a first-round bye with one more conference win or one more New England conference loss. Likewise, while the Broncos currently hold a playoff berth, if they end up tied with Jacksonville by the end of the season, the Jags have a better conference record which could help them leapfrog the Broncos for the #6 seed.

The next step, best won-lost-tied percentage in common games we skip for two reasons. First, we won't know which two teams to analyze when it comes to common opponents, and secondly because even if we had two teams, they might not have the requisite four games to apply this tiebreaker. Thus, we press onward.Strength of VictoryThis tiebreaker is used to determine the caliber of opponents a team beat throughout the season. If a team racks up a monster record but does it against pansies, they would lose this tiebreaker to a team with the same record who beat tougher opponents. This is really where things start to get technical.

This week: As teams win, they have their strength of victory levels updated. If a team loses, their strength of victory does not change, however they do drop in the overall W-L-T standings, so it does hurt. The point of this tiebreaker: if you're going to win, you better win against great teams and lose a rare game against a weakling. You better believe if the Dallas Cowboys get to this tiebreaker in the NFC, their win over the Saints will go a long way in boosting their ranking in this tiebreaker. Here's a look at AFC strength of victory numbers:

Team

PIT(7-7)

DEN(8-6)

SD(11-3)

MIA(7-7)

NE(9-5)

TEN(7-7)

NYJ(7-7)

CIN(9-5)

HOU(7-7)

JAC(7-7)

BAL(8-6)

BeatenTeams

TENSDDETCLEMINDENGB

CINCLEOAKDALNESDNYGKC

OAKMIAKCOAKNYGPHIDENKCCLEDALCIN

BUFNYJNYJTBCARNEJAC

BUFATLBALTENTBMIANYJCARBUF

JACSFBUFHOUARISTLMIA

HOUNETENOAKCARBUFTB

GBPITCLEBALCHIBALPITCLEDET

TENOAKCINSFBUFSEASTL

HOUTENSTLKCNYJBUFHOU

KCSDCLEDENCLEPITDETCHI

BeatenTeams'Record

51-47

57-55

70-84

43-55

54-72

42-56

41-57

52-74

38-60

37-61

42-70

%

.520

.509

.455

.439

.429

.429

.418

.413

.388

.378

.375

Rank

1

2

3

4

T-5

T-5

7

8

9

10

11

The Steelers have the best Strength of Victory ranking, but they would have to drastically raise their conference record by the end of the season or else it won't matter much. Denver has beaten some strong teams but their 6-5 conference record could be a problem if they falter in the final two weeks. With a game coming up against the Eagles, if they lose, it won't hurt their conference ranking, and Strength of Victory won't be affected because they won't have won a game. However, having a strong team like the Eagles now on their schedule will increase their Strength of Schedule, the next stop on our journey...

Strength of ScheduleThis is similar to strength of victory except it includes the records of all the teams played, not just the teams defeated. Listed are the teams played (italics indicates loss), their combined record and winning percentage, followed by the rankings of where each team falls in this particular tiebreaker.

The AFC Strength of Schedule:

Team

MIA(7-7)

TEN(7-7)

DEN(8-6)

NE(9-5)

BAL(8-6)

HOU(7-7)

JAC(7-7)

NYJ(7-7)

CIN(9-5)

SD(11-3)

PIT(7-7)

TeamsPlayedin '09LossesinItalics

BUFNYJNYJTBCARNEJAC

ATLINDSDNONEBUFTEN

JACSFBUFHOUARISTLMIA

PITHOUNYJJACINDNEIND

CINCLEOAKDALNESDNYGKC

BALPITWASSDINDOAK

BUFATLBALTENTBMIANYJCARBUF

NYJDENINDNOMIA

KCSDCLEDENCLEPITDETCHI

NECINMINCININDGB

TENOAKCINSFBUFSEASTL

NYJJACARIINDTENINDJAC

HOUTENSTLKCNYJBUFHOU

INDARISEATENSFMIAIND

HOUNETENOAKCARBUFTB

NOMIABUFMIAJACNEATL

GBPITCLEBALCHIBALPITCLEDET

DENHOUOAKMINSD

OAKMIAKCOAKNYGPHIDENKCCLEDALCIN

BALPITDEN

TENSDDETCLEMINDENGB

CHICINCINKCBALOAKCLE

Opp.Record

109-87

107-89

106-90

103-93

103-93

103-93

99-97

96-100

94-102

93-103

93-103

%

.556

.546

.541

.526

.526

.526

.505

.490

.480

.474

.474

Rank

1

2

3

T-4

T-4

T-4

7

8

9

T-10

T-10

With this formula, however, opponents that have not yet been played (Week 16-17 opponents) have not yet been factored in.

Notice how the Steelers, ranked #1 in Strength of Victory, are at the back of the pack in Strength of Schedule. It's never a good thing to be so far back in any tiebreaker, especially in such a tight race, but the fact that they've lost to such poor teams is actually helping their strength of victory. As a result, the winning percentage of teams they have beaten isn't weighted down by the likes of the Chiefs of Browns or Raiders. Having said that, I'm sure they'd rather have the extra three wins, be 10-4 instead of 7-7, and currently hold a playoff spot instead of worrying about tiebreakers. Interesting how that works out.

Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowedI know what you're thinking: what does that even mean? How could anyone ever know that? That's what I'm here for. Here's the breakdown of how these tangled up teams currently rank when it comes to putting up points and preventing teams from scoring.

This is where things start getting technical. I've only seen this tiebreaker even talked of once before, in 1999 when the Panthers and Packers were each airing the ball out in Week 17 to have a better ranking. Frankly, it was going to come down to Net Points in Conference (a couple of tiebreakers later), but depending how many points they each put up that week, the results for who could have made the playoffs may have been altered at this tiebreaker as well.

Team

NE

BAL

SD

NYJ

CIN

HOU

PIT

DEN

MIA

TEN

JAC

OffensivePointsAllowed

365

350

389

282

288

327

315

275

316

320

266

AFC Rank

3

4

2

10

9

5

8

11

7

6

12

DefensivePointsAllowed

244

225

283

221

244

286

280

250

333

347

322

AFC Rank

T-3

2

8

1

T-3

9

7

6

12

14

11

CombinedRanking

6

6

10

11

12

14

15

17

19

20

23

Who comesout ahead

T-1

T-1

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowedAs you can see from the above tiebreaker, it's very easy for several teams to end up tied within a conference with similar combined rankings, especially when you consider that it's really the teams at the top of the conference who are being looked at. At this point, it's time to bring in the entire NFL into the mix to determine whose rankings are the best.

Best net points in conference games.We're getting farther and farther down the list of tiebreakers. By this points, it's extremely rare that two teams remain tied. However, this is simply an exercise to see which teams come out ahead in each category. Now it's time to check net points (Net = Offensive Pts - Defensive Pts).

Team

SD

NE

BAL

NYJ

PIT

HOU

JAC

CIN

DEN

MIA

TEN

PointsScoredvs. AFC

317

267

226

222

209

232

223

179

215

226

219

PointsAllowedvs. AFC

223

179

155

178

190

217

210

167

207

228

296

Net

+94

+88

+71

+68

19

+15

+13

+12

+8

-2

-77

Rank

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

Best net points in all games.It's only fair to judge a team's body of work against its conference before looking at how it did against the entire NFL. Take a team that gets to play interconference games against the other conference's weakest division (*cough* NFC West *cough*) compared to teams that must play against NFC East opponents. That's why this tiebreaker is so far down the list.

Team

BAL

NE

SD

NYJ

CIN

HOU

PIT

DEN

MIA

TEN

JAC

PointsScoredvs. NFL

350

365

389

282

288

327

315

272

316

320

266

PointsAllowedvs. NFL

225

244

283

221

244

286

280

250

333

347

322

Net

+125

+121

+106

+61

+44

+41

+35

+25

-17

-27

-56

Rank

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

Best net touchdowns in all games.This is the final tiebreaker that has anything to do with football played on the field. After this, it comes down to a coin flip. Could you imagine the whole coin flip debacle from Thanksgiving 1998 going down as the final tiebreaker for a playoff spot??? Wouldn't you have to watch? It'd be the most intense coin flip ever - until of course we see overtime in the Super Bowl.

Consider this fact about the net touchdowns tiebreaker. Lets say two teams play each other and tie in the head-to-head, 21-21. Team A scores 21 by kicking seven field goals. Team B finds the end zone three times. If it got down to this tiebreaker, Team B is going to really enjoy how that tie came about.