John Maginnis: Mardi Gras party picks up, but not where it left off

Feb. 6, 2007

The state's political tribe is winging its way to Washington, D.C., to resume the traditional Mardi Gras celebration, after last year's hurricane-imposed hiatus.

The party is hardly picking up where it left off in 2005. Then former U.S. Sen. John Breaux was captain and Gov. Kathleen Blanco, though only in office one year, seemed on her way to re-election, barring the unforeseen, which, unfortunately for her and us, was not barred.

This year, Congressman Jim McCrery, R-Shreveport, is the new captain, and Bobby Jindal appears on his way to the Governor's Mansion, if the unforeseen doesn't get him too.

The last time a governor started an election year at such a low ebb was 1987, when Edwin Edwards, following two trials and the oil bust, looked to be a goner, which he turned out to be. (Had he only stayed gone, which he didn't, it would have been better for him and us.)

The circumstances appear just as dire for Blanco, so much so that the talk around the bar at the Washington Hilton this weekend will be a lot about whether she will decide not to run, or when she will decide or who is going to ask her to get out.

Though Breaux is hosting a fundraiser for her this week, it is not the hottest ticket in town. She already has one Democratic challenger in Public Service Commissioner Foster Campbell and she could get more.

About all that's going to quell that chatter and at least stabilize Blanco politically is for her stalled Road Home program to get out of first gear, for the state-run school district in New Orleans to empty its student waiting lists and for insurance on homes and businesses to become available if not also affordable.

That at least will put out some of the fires burning around her and give her a chance, as a candidate, to tell her story. If her fortunes do improve soon, no one would be happier, besides Blanco, than Jindal. First off, forget politics, who doesn't want the state to get out of the ditch and on the road to recovery yesterday? Even politically speaking, some good news for the incumbent would not be bad for her opponent, because there is no one better for him to oppose.

If the bad news gets no better, or even worse, the governor--out of frustration, depression or common sense--could forego a re-election campaign to concentrate all her energy on the recovery.

If that happened, immediately the election would turn from a referendum on Blanco to a referendum on Jindal, and voters would start looking at new options. With Blanco running, Jindal is the only real alternative, both because he never stopped running and because many voters who did not pick him in 2003 now wish they did. Without a rematch, Jindal would still be the frontunner, but the field would be different and course more uncertain.

Hopes for GOP solidarity behind the congressman are already dashed with word that state Sen. Walter Boasso, R-Arabi, is entering the race. He will present himself as a can-do problem solver, with a record of pushing tough reforms through the Legislature, from river pilot regulation to consolidation of New Orleans area levee boards. He is also known as something of a maverick by other Republicans, so he's following form by crashing Jindal's party.

Another Republican, Metairie businessman John Georges, states that he has put $2 million in a campaign account in anticipation of joining the race later.

Yet as long as the state is fixed on a replay, there is little room for the newcomers to grow. Their best hope, like those of some quietly hopeful Democrats, is for a whole new race, with all the attention, scrutiny and aim on Jindal.

Even if the governor were to seriously contemplate not running, in all likelihood she would not so move until after the Legislature adjourns on June 29, in order that she not become less relevant to the session.

For Jindal, the next best thing to having Blanco on the ballot is having a short campaign without her. She is in his prayers.

John Maginnis is a syndicated columnist who reports on Louisiana politics. Write him in care of Political Review, P.O. Box 6, Baton Rouge, LA 70821. Maginnis' Web site is LaPolitics.com.