Hard to believe, but in a week from now the 2013 NFL season will be at the quarter pole. And, after three weeks of facing mediocre at best competition, the Patriots will deal with back to back road games against Atlanta and Cincinnati, before returning home to face the Saints and Drew Brees...who has seemingly had the Pats' number for years. Yes...the Pats' defense has looked good thus far. But, let's see how they do against much better competition.

Here are my Week 4 picks, with the "Game of the Week" being:

1.) (3-0) Seattle Seahawks @ (2-1) Houston Texans (+3): Currently, the Seahawks appear to be the best team in the NFC. They have beaten a rugged Carolina team on the road, crushed what appears to be an overrated 49ers team at home, and blugeoned the hapless Jaguars at home. The Texans were supposed to be a serious AFC contender. But, they were lucky to beat San Diego on the road, retained their horseshoe in edging Tennessee at home in OT, before being pounded by the Ravens in Baltimore. Its put up or shut-up time for the Texans, and their SB starved fan base: PICK: Seahawks;

2.) (1-2) San Francisco 49ers @ (1-2) St. Louis Rams (+3): What has happened to the once feared 49ers? After being pounded by divisional rival Seattle, they were embarrassed at home by the Indianapolis Colts. The Rams looked terrible last week in Dallas, as Cowboys' RB DeMarco Murray gashed them for 175 yards. Look for the 49ers to attempt to ground and pound the Rams with Frank Gore. The Rams outplayed the 49ers last year, beating them in St. Louis, and tying them in San Francisco. The 9ers are without DE/OLB Aldon Smith (in alcohol rehab), and may be without stud ILB, Patrick Willis: PICK: Rams;

3.) (0-3) Pittsburgh Steelers (+1) @ (0-3) Minnesota Vikings (in London): What looked like a good game between two good teams has disintegrated into a yawn. Still, RB Adrian Peterson is always worth watching. The Steelers are completely falling apart: PICK: Vikings;

4.) (2-1) Baltimore Ravens @ (1-2) Buffalo Bills (+3.5): After being humiliated in Denver by the dreaded Horseface, the Ravens have bounced back nicely with impressive defensive efforts against Cleveland and Houston. Though rookie QB E. J. Manuel has shown potential, the rest of his teammates are the same old Bills: PICK: Ravens;

5.) (2-1) Cincinnati Bengals @ (1-2) Cleveland Browns (+5): Though the Bengals fought back and beat the defenseless Green Bay Packers last week, I'm still not sold on their QB, Andy Dalton. Cleveland has a good enough defense to keep them in this game. The question is, whether Cleveland native and ex-Patriot QB Brian Hoyer can string together back to back solid games: PICK: Browns:

6.) (2-1) Indianapolis Colts @ (0-3) Jacksonville Jaguars (+8.5): The Colts shocked the football world by going into San Francisco and physically manhandling the 49ers. The Jaguars are terrible...and appear to have a legitimate chance at an imperfect (0-16) season: PICK: Colts;

8.) (3-0) Chicago Bears (+3) @ (2-1) Detroit Lions: This game received some consideration for "Game of the Week" honors. These are two explosive offensive teams colliding, in what should be a track meet: PICK: Bears;

9.) (0-3) N.Y. Giants (+4) @ (3-0) Kansas City Chiefs: The Giants looked beyond awful last week, getting blown out, 38-0, in Carolina. The Chiefs are rolling under Andy Reid, and sport the NFL's sack leader, in OLB Justin Houston. With the problems that the G-men are having protecting Eli Manning, and pressuring the opposing passer, it could be another long afternoon for my poor beleaguered pal, good ol' Jints: PICK: Chiefs;

10.) (2-1) N.Y. Jets (+4.5) @ (2-1) Tennessee Titans: The Jets are playing better than expected. But, so are the Titans. In what should be a low scoring, 3 point game: PICK: Jets;

11.) (2-1) Dallas Cowboys @ (1-2) San Diego Chargers (+2): This appears to the the Cowboys' year in the NFC East. The Chargers have been in every game, and, with a break or two, could easily be (3-0). Dallas looked impressive last week in dismantling the Rams: PICK: Cowboys;

12.) (0-3) Washington Redskins @ (0-3) Oakland Raiders (+3): How can the Redskins be favored over anyone, especially when playing on the road?: PICK: Raiders;

14.) (3-0) New England Patriots (+1.5) @ (1-2) Atlanta Falcons: Judging by the spread, not many are impressed with the Patriots and their (3-0) record. In truth, who have they played? The Falcons can ill afford to lose their third game in a row. Both teams have offenses that are running at far less than 100%, due to injuries to some key components: PICK: Patriots;

15.) (3-0) Miami Dolphins (+6) @ (3-0) New Orleans Saints: Another game that drew consideration for "Game of the Week". The 'Fins have beaten Cleveland and Indy on the road, and the Falcons at home. Miami could pose a threat to the Patriots in the AFC East. Other than edging the Falcons at home, the Saints haven't beaten any team of note. It will be interesting to see just how good the Miami Dolphins are, in a real "measuring stick" game for them: PICK: Saints;

BEST BETS: Seahawks, Colts, Bucs, Chiefs, Cowboys, and Broncos.

I concerned! I'm confident about too many games! This usually spells disaster for me!

As always, your thoughts and comments are welcome...particularly on the games involving the Pats, and the other AFC East teams.

Hey TP -- Always fun to read your "game of the week" post. I think the Texans are going to get BLOWED OUT again. Schaub is not the real deal at all. Dolphins vs. Saints is likely to be a very interesting game and one I wouldn't want to call at this point. A little surprised you are taking the Jets in "a 3-pt game," especially since the spread is 4.5 and the Jets are, like the Ravens, a team that doesn't score (Ravens got 14 of their 30 points on defense and special teams last week).

so many games that look like yawners that looked good when the schedule was made out. The team that surprises me the most is the NYG. What happened here? It's sad when you only have 3 or 4 games that could interest you.

We're all going to be raving about this being the biggest test so far, and it is. But I'm feeling confident that they will pull out another W.

IMO the Pats have put together a more well-rounded team, especially on defense, than in the last couple of seasons. I see continued improvement from the rookie receivers, and they have started targeting the running backs and tight ends more in the passing game. (Just stop passing to Sudfeld, as that will only lead to a pick. Irony applied)

What is becoming clearer by the game, is that there is no obvious weakness to exploit. They can be hard to run against, the corners look better than usual, the pass rush is better. On offense after a couple of rough games they are starting to get it together, and will only get better from here. Defenses cannot only take away Edelman and stack the box. It is just too unpredictable who will be targeted.

My knowledge about Atlantas' defense is lacking, but would you guys consider it better than Tampas? I'm predicting a game with more scoring than we have seen in the first 3 games, maybe something like 31-24 Patriots.

Hey TP -- Always fun to read your "game of the week" post. I think the Texans are going to get BLOWED OUT again. Schaub is not the real deal at all. Dolphins vs. Saints is likely to be a very interesting game and one I wouldn't want to call at this point. A little surprised you are taking the Jets in "a 3-pt game," especially since the spread is 4.5 and the Jets are, like the Ravens, a team that doesn't score (Ravens got 14 of their 30 points on defense and special teams last week).

Good morning!

I think that the Texans are in trouble, too. They could easily be (0-3) this season. Their offense has been inconsistent, and their secondary is awful. If teams can control Houston's front seven and give their QB time to throw,they can light up the scoreboard. After that drubbing in Baltimore, Texans' fans are pushing the panic button. On a Houston sports talk show this morning, the talking heads were fantasizing over a scenario in which the Texans could trade for Ben Roethlisburger. The ridiculous trade proposal being floated was to trade QB Matt Schaub and the Texans' 2014 #1 draft choice to the Steelers, for Big Ben. LOL!!!

As is the case when the Patriots face the Falcons in Atlanta, the 'Fins v. Saints will give us an idea as to just how good Miami really is.

I took the Jets on the road against Tennessee because I see this as a tight game, to be decided by a FG. Remember, it's the Jets...plus 4.5 points. So, even if Tennessee wins by a FG, the Jets will cover.

True that the Ravens have trouble scoring. But, so do the Bills. Buffalo's secondary is a mess due to injuries...and RB C.J. Spiller may miss this game due to a leg injury.

so many games that look like yawners that looked good when the schedule was made out. The team that surprises me the most is the NYG. What happened here? It's sad when you only have 3 or 4 games that could interest you.

Lots of surprises, as the Giants, Steelers. Vikings, 49ers, and Redskins all look awful thus far.

We're all going to be raving about this being the biggest test so far, and it is. But I'm feeling confident that they will pull out another W.

RESPONSE: Agreed. Like the Patriots, the Falcons are having to deal with their fair share of injuries, too. Defensive end Kroy Biermann is out, after being placed on season-ending injured reserve. In addition, perhaps their best defender, LB Sean Weatherspoon, is out after being placed on the short-term version of IR. On offense, star WRs Roddy White and Julio Jones are playing through injuries, and veteran RB Stephen Jackson is out due to a groin injury.

IMO the Pats have put together a more well-rounded team, especially on defense, than in the last couple of seasons. I see continued improvement from the rookie receivers, and they have started targeting the running backs and tight ends more in the passing game. (Just stop passing to Sudfeld, as that will only lead to a pick. Irony applied)

What is becoming clearer by the game, is that there is no obvious weakness to exploit. They can be hard to run against, the corners look better than usual, the pass rush is better. On offense after a couple of rough games they are starting to get it together, and will only get better from here. Defenses cannot only take away Edelman and stack the box. It is just too unpredictable who will be targeted.

RESPONSE: Yes, the "D" has looked good. But, who have the Pats played? The three QBs that they have faced are jokes. Matt Ryan should provide a truer test.

My knowledge about Atlantas' defense is lacking, but would you guys consider it better than Tampas? I'm predicting a game with more scoring than we have seen in the first 3 games, maybe something like 31-24 Patriots.

RESPONSE: Tampa and the Jets have better defenses than the Falcons. LB Sean Weatherspoon is a serious loss for them. He is Atlanta's Jerod Mayo. Though going on the road against a good football team is always a tall order, I like the Pats' chances.

Apparently, I wasn't the only one who thought that Tom Brady didn't play well last Sunday. This from Profootballfocus.com:

"It's pretty clear that the New England passing game has struggled through three games. While the chemistry between (Tom) Brady and the young receivers certainly bears some responsibility in the matter, Brady has left a number of plays on the field...and that trend continued against the Bucs. The domino effect was evident as the (poorly thrown) end zone miss to Dobson led to a forced throw that was picked off by (Mark) Barron. Brady's poor throws often come in bunches, and that series a the beginning of the 3rd quarter was not his finest.For the day, only 92 of his 225 yards came through the air, and only 6 of his 36 aimed passes traveled more than 10 yards. Brady's (-3.4) grade is his worst since Week 7 of 2010 when he graded at (-4.4) against the San Diego Chargers."

Every team has been showing what they are, with probably only two jokers left in the deck as of the end of week three.

1.Jacksonville’s offense can’t stay at zero forever, or can they?Sure, they had only gained five yards and no first downs by the middle of the second quarter on Sunday, but at some point, maybe next week, maybe in a few eons, their offense will grow legs and walk on land.

2.New England’s passing offense will someday see Gronk and Danny Amendola on the field at the same time, and all of the rookies will grow up too.Then the Iron Man suit will attach itself around the Patriots’ offense and its thrusters will punch them through the roof of the Atlanta Dome in about one half of a second.Or else none of this will happen for a while longer.

The AFC’s big ascendant team, sitting mere hundredths of one win ahead of two other teams, is Miami at #5 on my list.I expect that either New England or Miami will win a bye week, and the loser will get the #5 slot in the playoffs.Denver’s O has the Iron Man suit right now.Denver’s only issue is age.Can they stay healthy?

Carolina took a huge power-up, or else the Giants went on strike.Carolina has a solid trio of November games in San Francisco on the road, New England and Miami.

My week three game of the week, Seattle to defeat Jacksonville by 31 points, only missed its target by three points.I’m 3-0 this year.This Vegas stuff looks easy as pie. OK, I'll take a fall sometime.

For my week four game of the week I have two candidates. Ben Roofies Roethlisberger is playing awful but nobody seems to notice, and RGIII is playing awful but nobody seems to notice.

Roofies has something strange going on where he consistently can’t throw the football to the outside of the field.He can only throw down the middle.Defenses will start clogging up the middle on the guy.Minnesota actually played pretty well against Cleveland, except they were suckers for the gimmick play.So, for my week four Game of the Week I’m going to go with Minnesota over Pittsburgh.

pitmin9.6-1.511.1

Other picks:

At this point I need evidence that the Giants locker room hasn’t caught Snoopy disease from the Jets locker room.Was Carolina good or were the Giants that bad?I’d go with the latter.KC doesn’t have much of a national rep, starting as they did from the NFL’s caboose, but they’re playing football this year.

nygkc11.44.56.9

Leaners

Oakland shouldn’t earn 9 points from me if their quarterback went out with a concussion.As I see it right now, Terrelle Pryor is probably out for next Sunday.He had himself a big helmet-to-helmet extended blackout.Washington, however, is just no good.

TexasPat said: "I took the Jets on the road against Tennessee because I see this as a tight game, to be decided by a FG. Remember, it's the Jets...plus 4.5 points. So, even if Tennessee wins by a FG, the Jets will cover."

My bad for posting so early in the morning when my brains were still scrambled. But I still have some trouble with the Jets pick because they have to keep it close to cover the spread, i.e. lose by less than a TD. I have doubts about their ability to keep up with a team that is playing well. But I haven't seen the Titans, so I don't know what they're actually doing.

TexasPat said: "I took the Jets on the road against Tennessee because I see this as a tight game, to be decided by a FG. Remember, it's the Jets...plus 4.5 points. So, even if Tennessee wins by a FG, the Jets will cover."

My bad for posting so early in the morning when my brains were still scrambled. But I still have some trouble with the Jets pick because they have to keep it close to cover the spread, i.e. lose by less than a TD. I have doubts about their ability to keep up with a team that is playing well. But I haven't seen the Titans, so I don't know what they're actually doing.

For what it's worth, I too have had second thoughts on picking the Jests to cover.

These are cool to read. Some really good analysis and picks. Not to be terribly nitpicky but the 49ers tied the Rams at home and lost to them on the road last year. But I liked reading this. Keep it up!

These are cool to read. Some really good analysis and picks. Not to be terribly nitpicky but the 49ers tied the Rams at home and lost to them on the road last year. But I liked reading this. Keep it up!

My bad...you're right. The Rams tied the 9ers in San Francisco, and beat them in OT in St. Louis.

Hard to believe, but in a week from now the 2013 NFL season will be at the quarter pole. And, after three weeks of facing mediocre at best competition, the Patriots will deal with back to back road games against Atlanta and Cincinnati, before returning home to face the Saints and Drew Brees...who has seemingly had the Pats' number for years. Yes...the Pats' defense has looked good thus far. But, let's see how they do against much better competition.

Here are my Week 4 picks, with the "Game of the Week" being:

1.) (3-0) Seattle Seahawks @ (2-1) Houston Texans (+3): Currently, the Seahawks appear to be the best team in the NFC. They have beaten a rugged Carolina team on the road, crushed what appears to be an overrated 49ers team at home, and blugeoned the hapless Jaguars at home. The Texans were supposed to be a serious AFC contender. But, they were lucky to beat San Diego on the road, retained their horseshoe in edging Tennessee at home in OT, before being pounded by the Ravens in Baltimore. Its put up or shut-up time for the Texans, and their SB starved fan base: PICK: Seahawks;

2.) (1-2) San Francisco 49ers @ (1-2) St. Louis Rams (+3): What has happened to the once feared 49ers? After being pounded by divisional rival Seattle, they were embarrassed at home by the Indianapolis Colts. The Rams looked terrible last week in Dallas, as Cowboys' RB DeMarco Murray gashed them for 175 yards. Look for the 49ers to attempt to ground and pound the Rams with Frank Gore. The Rams outplayed the 49ers last year, beating them in St. Louis, and tying them in San Francisco. The 9ers are without DE/OLB Aldon Smith (in alcohol rehab), and may be without stud ILB, Patrick Willis: PICK: Rams;

3.) (0-3) Pittsburgh Steelers (+1) @ (0-3) Minnesota Vikings (in London): What looked like a good game between two good teams has disintegrated into a yawn. Still, RB Adrian Peterson is always worth watching. The Steelers are completely falling apart: PICK: Vikings;

4.) (2-1) Baltimore Ravens @ (1-2) Buffalo Bills (+3.5): After being humiliated in Denver by the dreaded Horseface, the Ravens have bounced back nicely with impressive defensive efforts against Cleveland and Houston. Though rookie QB E. J. Manuel has shown potential, the rest of his teammates are the same old Bills: PICK: Ravens;

5.) (2-1) Cincinnati Bengals @ (1-2) Cleveland Browns (+5): Though the Bengals fought back and beat the defenseless Green Bay Packers last week, I'm still not sold on their QB, Andy Dalton. Cleveland has a good enough defense to keep them in this game. The question is, whether Cleveland native and ex-Patriot QB Brian Hoyer can string together back to back solid games: PICK: Browns:

6.) (2-1) Indianapolis Colts @ (0-3) Jacksonville Jaguars (+8.5): The Colts shocked the football world by going into San Francisco and physically manhandling the 49ers. The Jaguars are terrible...and appear to have a legitimate chance at an imperfect (0-16) season: PICK: Colts;

8.) (3-0) Chicago Bears (+3) @ (2-1) Detroit Lions: This game received some consideration for "Game of the Week" honors. These are two explosive offensive teams colliding, in what should be a track meet: PICK: Bears;

9.) (0-3) N.Y. Giants (+4) @ (3-0) Kansas City Chiefs: The Giants looked beyond awful last week, getting blown out, 38-0, in Carolina. The Chiefs are rolling under Andy Reid, and sport the NFL's sack leader, in OLB Justin Houston. With the problems that the G-men are having protecting Eli Manning, and pressuring the opposing passer, it could be another long afternoon for my poor beleaguered pal, good ol' Jints: PICK: Chiefs;

10.) (2-1) N.Y. Jets (+4.5) @ (2-1) Tennessee Titans: The Jets are playing better than expected. But, so are the Titans. In what should be a low scoring, 3 point game: PICK: Jets;

11.) (2-1) Dallas Cowboys @ (1-2) San Diego Chargers (+2): This appears to the the Cowboys' year in the NFC East. The Chargers have been in every game, and, with a break or two, could easily be (3-0). Dallas looked impressive last week in dismantling the Rams: PICK: Cowboys;

12.) (0-3) Washington Redskins @ (0-3) Oakland Raiders (+3): How can the Redskins be favored over anyone, especially when playing on the road?: PICK: Raiders;

14.) (3-0) New England Patriots (+1.5) @ (1-2) Atlanta Falcons: Judging by the spread, not many are impressed with the Patriots and their (3-0) record. In truth, who have they played? The Falcons can ill afford to lose their third game in a row. Both teams have offenses that are running at far less than 100%, due to injuries to some key components: PICK: Patriots;

15.) (3-0) Miami Dolphins (+6) @ (3-0) New Orleans Saints: Another game that drew consideration for "Game of the Week". The 'Fins have beaten Cleveland and Indy on the road, and the Falcons at home. Miami could pose a threat to the Patriots in the AFC East. Other than edging the Falcons at home, the Saints haven't beaten any team of note. It will be interesting to see just how good the Miami Dolphins are, in a real "measuring stick" game for them: PICK: Saints;

BEST BETS: Seahawks, Colts, Bucs, Chiefs, Cowboys, and Broncos.

I concerned! I'm confident about too many games! This usually spells disaster for me!

As always, your thoughts and comments are welcome...particularly on the games involving the Pats, and the other AFC East teams.

Apparently, I wasn't the only one who thought that Tom Brady didn't play well last Sunday. This from Profootballfocus.com:

"It's pretty clear that the New England passing game has struggled through three games. While the chemistry between (Tom) Brady and the young receivers certainly bears some responsibility in the matter, Brady has left a number of plays on the field...and that trend continued against the Bucs. The domino effect was evident as the (poorly thrown) end zone miss to Dobson led to a forced throw that was picked off by (Mark) Barron. Brady's poor throws often come in bunches, and that series a the beginning of the 3rd quarter was not his finest.For the day, only 92 of his 225 yards came through the air, and only 6 of his 36 aimed passes traveled more than 10 yards. Brady's (-3.4) grade is his worst since Week 7 of 2010 when he graded at (-4.4) against the San Diego Chargers."

Just sayin'.

TP, I think it's a tough thing to gauge, because it's an offensive unit. They all have to jell as a unit. I can't tell if the receivers are not where they are supposed to be or Brady misses them, or someone misses a blocking assignment or something else. I have decided to wait until the end of November to see how they are coming together (same thing for the defense BTW). Until then, I'm enjoying the ride!