In every election there are a handful of states you can focus on to give you cues into how the entire cycle is going. Below we have the top 10 cue giving states for gubernatorial races and what has made them unique this cycle. Florida

The GOP open seat started as a mess and it’s going to end that way. The Republican establishment candidate lost his primary to spending, health care mogul Rick Scott (R).

Democrats have a chance to win this and take bragging rights with their candidate State Treasurer Alex Sink (D) who has some business backing.

Rhode Island

Former Senator Lincoln Chafee (I) left the GOP to become an independent for this open seat.

Georgia

Ethics charges have plagued former Rep. Nathan Deal (R) who scored an upset win in the Republican runoff. Democrats have former Governor Roy Barnes (D)

This contest doesn’t align with your typical partisan patterns.

Illinois

Appointed Governor Pat Quinn (D) had a tough primary and the GOP selected a dark horse Bill Brady (R) who had only 20% of the vote in a big field.

A Republican win here shows a collapse of the Democratic urban machine

This race is likely to be in turmoil since the announcement by Chicago Mayor Daley that he wasn’t running in 2011.

Ohio

Governor Ted Strickland (D) was a popular post-partisan figure when he was chosen 4 years ago, but the economy and tough budget choices eroded his base.

The GOP nominated former Rep. John Kasich (R) and Democrats have since tied him to Wall Street. Let’s watch and see if that tactic works with late deciding voters.

Pennsylvania

Every poll leading up to early October had Attorney General Tom Corbett (R) winning this open seat.

Victory will only come when union households split between Republican and Democratic candidates.

If Corbett loses, then the polls were super uber-wrong, which is possible.

Wisconsin

State voters aren’t supposed to want a Milwaukee figure to represent the state but this time they have no choice. Mayor Tom Barrett (D) is well regarded in his city but may be resented or unknown outside.

GOP says they are rolling to win with County Executive Scott Walker (R).

Student and minority turnout on Election Day could upend this GOP victory.

Minnesota

There is a three-way race among contenders who represent mere fragments of their party base.

This state wouldn’t merit much interest if it weren’t vacated by wannabe Presidential candidate Tim Pawlenty (R) who would look weak if he can’t deliver here.

Nevada

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s son is the gubernatorial candidate.

Governor Jim Gibbons (R) lost in the primary to former judge, Brian Sandoval (R).

Polls show Sandoval way ahead, but Harry’s “no-vote-left-behind” vacuum cleaner could alter these odds for Rory.

Sandoval’s ethnicity may split the Hispanic vote.

Ironically enough, Sandoval got his Federal judgeship, which he has since resigned, from Harry Reid.

Oregon

I often get accused of talking too much about the NBA, after all, I am going to the Washington Wizards home open on Election Night. To all of you I say “Ha!”

Why? Because the GOP nominee is a former NBA player Chris Dudley (R) while the Democrats recycled a former Governor Ted Kulongoski (D).

The GOP win is a longshot, but in wipeout years, as on the court, all kinds of unpredictable can happen.