The bubble is uniquely weak this year. Notice in the first four out, Butler is the only high major team listed, and the last four in are all high major clubs. So let’s analyze the bubble from a the non-high-major perspective. Note that Gonzaga, Nevada, and Buffalo, without a major catastrophe, are solidly in the field. That means if San Francisco, St. Mary’s, Utah St., Toledo or any other team pull off conference tournament upsets in the West Coast, Mountain West, or MAC, these would be two team leagues and they knock out the last four in teams. In other words, once conference tournaments start, the bubble only shrinks. It never expands. The most interesting conference tournaments will be the A-Sun and SoCon. In the SoCon, Wofford appears to be on track for an at-large bid if they do not win the tournament, but by not winning the tournament they will have to absorb a “bad loss” and with a relatively shaky resume, the decision will be left to the committee who in recent years has not favored mid-majors in these situations. Lipscomb, in the A-Sun, is in an even more precarious state. Currently the Bisons are in position for at-large, but another loss might eliminate their chance at an at-large bid. Undeniably, the most competitive conference tournament will be the OVC. Belmont, Murray St., Austin Peay are all potential 13 or 14 seeds and Jacksonville St. is a potential 15. No other mid-major has four relatively even ranked teams.

Unless one of the high major bubble teams makes a deep run in their tournament, look for more mid-majors to be invited to the dance this year. Enjoy! (Data through games played on February 13.)