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Monday, October 15, 2018

How GE2018 Could Play out in WM,SK,SJ,IS. Part I: The Districts

Post under Construction. Last update: 9:48 AM 10/16/2018 . This post is best seen on a wide screen desktop.-RMF

In the table below, we can see combined GE 2016 results for Clinton+Stein (CS) or Trump+Johnson (TJ) and Primary 2018 results for MariaCantwell (MC) or SusanHutchison (SH). Skagit 10 (light blue), Whatcom 42-2 (dark blue) and 40th LD (yellow) are critical for Democrat success in the four county area. In reality, only WM 40-2, WM 42-2, SK 40-1 and SJ 40-2 are sure bets for 'blue' in a heavy turnout GE. This makes LD 40 + WM 42-2 (North Bellingham) the liberal anchors in a four county area that could turn red with a stronger Republican turnout. This helps put the "double Mike P." strategy in perspective.Petrish and Peetoom can't really beat Lekanoff and Frazey, but they can help Seguine (R) beat Hazelrigg-Hernandez (D) and also help the 42LD Rs in their customary cruise over the 42LD Ds. No votes can be taken for granted in this year's four county election that mostly pits middle-aged Republican men versus progressive Democratic women. The primary went mostly to the Democrats in Whatcom County. However, turnout is likely to resemble GE 2016 this November due to the new stampless ballot and an unruly, "hyper energized" electorate now chafing at their electoral bits nationwide! Let the balloting begin!

CD LD County CS TJ MC SH StatusGE StatusPRI

1: 1 42 WM 21683 30582 11763 11655 Light Red Light Blue

2: 2 10 IS 21767 20784 13552 7612 Light Blue Dark Blue

3: 2 40 WM 25079 8355 12810 2997 Dark Blue Dark Blue

4: 2 42 WM 14828 5266 8181 1742 Dark Blue Dark Blue

5: 2 40 SK 9925 8994 6013 3135 Light Blue Dark Blue

6: 2 40 SJ 7639 3090 4780 1197 Dark Blue Dark Blue

7: 2 10 SK 4843 4592 2913 1749 Light Blue Dark Blue

8: 1 10 SK 3909 3704 2270 1295 Light Blue Dark Blue

9: 1 40 SK 4129 3354 1862 935 Light Blue Dark Blue

10: 2 39 SK 2547 3637 1385 1074 Light Red Light Blue

11: 1 39 SK 2283 3441 1374 1046 Dark Red Light Blue

12: 1 40 WM 1487 1117 811 474 Light Blue Dark Blue

In the charts below, black lines are Congressional Districts (CD1 & CD2). Red lines are Legislative Districts 10, 39, 40, & 42. Blue scale for precincts is the Clinton+Stein percentage. Note that Clinton+Stein vs. Trump+Johnson doesn't give us the complete picture for GE 2016 since there were so many (un-tabulated) write-ins presumably for Bernie. For more data, please see 'Notes' far below. Click to enlarge the charts!

Disregard Snohomish (e.g. Stanwood, Marysville) and Jefferson (e.g. Port Townsend) Counties here. Whatcom, San Juan, Skagit, Island counties share an Appellate Court 3 race. Whatcom (south), San Juan (all), Skagit (North) share the 40 LD races. The 42nd LD fits entirely in whatever is left of Whatcom once the smaller 40LD is subtracted. The Congressional Districts (WA 1 and 2) are much larger and not fully pictured here. WA 10 CDs currently average 428K registered voters. WA 49 LDs have a mean of about 87K, but LDs 10,40, 42 are all above 95K registered, active voter right now. For more information, see subheading 'Notes' below.