Archive for the ‘gerrit cole’ tag

Another season, another MVP runner-up for Trout at the behest of another player? PHoto via redsox life

Hi there. Its time to write about the “silly season” of baseball. Its my annual awards predictor piece.

Here’s my predictions for how the awards will go. Important note: This is not necessarily how I believe the awards should go, it is how I think the current electorate will vote … though I do tend to believe that the MVP award in particular is not just about naming the WAR leader in the league. And I also tend to favor giving a pitcher the Cy Young and a non-pitcher the MVP. But feel free to discuss in the comments if you think i’m wrong. I can be argumentative either way

AL MVP: Mookie Betts is the best player on the best team, always a good place to start with MVP thoughts. Yes, once again Mike Trout is having a phenomenal year, and once again he toils on the West Coast and for a team out of the playoff race. I’m eternally sympathetic to those who think MVP should not include team performance … and i’m perennially finding myself agreeing with “old school” sentiments that ask a simple question; how can you be the most valuable player when your team isn’t a factor for most of the year. Also in the mix would be Betts’ teammate J.D. Ramirez, the Oakland phenomenon Matt Chapman, Houston WAR leader Alex Bregman, and Cleveland stars Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor. My personal hedge statement here: I’d be rather surprised if Betts did not win.

NL MVP: Christian Yelich has really exploded late in the season to put his name into this discussion. But the question may end up being this: is this one of those weird years where no dominant, obvious position player candidate steps up and thus the award goes to a pitcher? I’d suggest this might be possible … except that the top 3-4 pitching candidates all play for non-playoff teams. And that doesn’t match the narrative. I’m going to go with Yelich, then the top NL pitchers right behind him, with perhaps Javier Baez,Nolan Arenado and Freddie Freeman getting some votes as their respective “best player on a playoff team” status. Coincidentally … did you know that Anthony Rendon is 2nd in the NL in fWAR behind Yelich? I certainly didn’t. Personal Hedge statement: I’d still be shocked if a pitcher for a non-playoff team won here, and would find it hard to vote for one of these other position players mentioned.

AL Cy Young: Blake Snell. This might be an interesting case of whether you’re wow’d by conventional stats or not. Snell has a sub 2.00 ERA, but he’s doing it thanks to a ridiculously low BABIP, which drags down is fWAR and puts him well down the league leader list. Meanwhile in bWAR … he’s the top AL pitcher, ahead of his competition for this award. I think the fact that he’s put up the numbers that he has playing in the AL East and having fully 25% of his starts this year come against Boston and the Yankees is pretty amazing. I’d vote Snell. Also in the mix here: Verlander, Cole, Sale, Kluber, Bauer. Personal Hedge: wouldn’t be surprised if this went to Verlander or Sale instead.

NL Cy Young. Max Scherzer Yes i’m convinced that his broaching the 300k mark put him over the top, despite the unbelievable season that Jacob deGrom had. I could be wrong; maybe the electorate has now advanced to the point where they recognize that a guy who finished 10-9 was indeed the best pitcher of the year. We’ll see. Either way, I sense these guys go 1-2. After them, look for Aaron NolaKyle Freeland, and Patrick Corbin. Personal Hedge: deGrom is getting enough “holy cow look at this season” buzz that it wouldn’t really surprise me if he won. And he’d be completely deserving. Btw, as the off-season narratives grew, I became less and less convinced I had this one right. Writing this ahead of the awards, I think deGrom wins.

AL Rookie: Shohei Ohtani: it shouldn’t be close honestly. He had a 4.0 WAR season, clubbing more than 20 homers and looking pretty darn solid on the mound before the inevitable elbow injury derailed his season and cost him 60 games or so. Only Gleybar Torres is close; this should be a unanimous vote and I hope Ohtani comes back from injury sooner than later. Personal Hedge: a vote against Ohtani is really a bad one honestly.

NL Rookie: Ronald Acuna; its Acuna or Juan Soto, both of whom had historic seasons at a young age. Acuna’s monster September pushes him over the top, and his stat line for the season is just slightly better than Soto’s, despite the missed time. By narrative, Soto would have this hands-down though; he advanced from Low-A to putting up a 4-win season as a 19yr old, has had perhaps the 2nd or 3rd best teen-aged season in the long history of our game, and might have been in the MVP race had the Nats won the division. Hedge: I begrudgingly have to admit that Acuna is slightly better, and rookie status isn’t given context (ie, its not part of the equation that Soto started the year in Low-A and Acuna was in AAA and a known #1 overall prospect).

AL Manager: hard not to say that Bob Melvin‘s performance taking an expected also-ran to nearly 100 wins isn’t the Mgr of the year. He’s on his like 18th starter of the year, he’s winning with a bunch of non-prospects, he’s turned trash into treasure (Blake Treinen).

NL Manager: Brian Snitker, who took the NL east by 8 games in a complete surprise based on nearly every pundit’s pre-season predictions. No other NL playoff team was really this big of a “surprise” so he gets it.

Actual Award Resultsadded as they were awarded (updated post-publishing). Finalists announced 11/4/18.

Players choice awards: The players choice awards had some interesting choices. Miguel Andujar and Acuna for Rookies, Snell and deGrom Pitchers of the year, Curtis Granderson the “Marvin Miller” man of the year, etc.

Interesting news on 1/11/18: Edwin Jackson has re-signed a split minor league deal with decent compensation if he makes the major league team ($1.5M plus another $1.4M in incentives).

Lots of rumors about the team eventually buying a more established 5th starter, either on the open market or in trade. There’s too many names still out there to even begin to discuss, from marquee 8-figure free agents (Yu Darvish) to Nats-favorite Scott Boras clients he’s likely to go over Rizzo’s head about (Jake Arrieta) to trade candidates from rebuilding teams (Tampa, Miami, Pittsburgh and their valuable arms like Gerrit Cole, ChrisArcher, though inbetween the time I started this post and published it, Cole had already been traded to the keep-getting-richer Astros).Bur for now, we don’t have any of these guys … so we’re still projected for a fun spring training competition.

So, what does the #5 starter competition look like right now? Basically there’s four primary candidates now in-house and signed for 2018. Lets rank them in likely order of winning the job:

#1: A.J. Cole

I think right now Cole has the inside track, even given the Milone and Jackson signings. Cole’s 2018 numbers were decent at the MLB level: 3-5 with a 3.81 ERA even if his periperhals were bad (5.88 fip, 1.50 whip). His AAA numbers in 2017 were awful (5.88 ERA in 18 starts), but then again the entire Syracuse rotation was awful in 2018. But, he did show some promise last year and he’s out of options, so I can’t help but think that he’ll get a shot to stick on the MLB roster until he proves he’s either staying or going one last time.

#2 : Edwin Jackson:

He made an ok case for the job based on what he was able to do last year. No, he wasn’t awesome: in 13 starts he was 5-6 with a 5.07 ERA and even worse peripherals (5.88 FIP, 1.4 whip). That’s about what he did for San Diego in 2016, so It shouldn’t be too much of a surprise. But he’s a known quantity, he throws hard, he never gets hurt. He also clearly will work in the minors to get another shot at the majors and didn’t sign back up with this team on a whim, so odds are he could get stashed in Syracuse for a bit and wait out his chance.

#3 Tommy Milone: the prodigal son returns to the fold. Initially sent away in the Gio Gonzalez trade 7 years ago, he pitched well for both Oakland and Minnesota before falling off a cliff in 2016. His 2017 was not pretty: a combined 7.63 ERA for two different teams. He also signed a minor league deal that I suspect may have an opt-out if he fails to make the team. Hopefully not; he did log some AAA time in the last two seasons and may also opt to stick around. Is it possible he returns to his career form (a 4.37 ERA and a 91 ERA+ figure)? Maybe; he’d have to do a lot better though to make his case for t he 5th starter.

#4: Erick Fedde; our top starting pitcher prospect and sole arm in AAA or AA (or perhaps even high-A at this point) which represents a significant draft investment (outside of Mariano Rivera Jr that is … who is already a reliever). And he did not look ready in his debut last fall. 3 starts. 9.39 ERA … even if two of those starts were against tough competition (home to Colorado, then away vs the Cubs). Short Sample Size, yadda-yadda, he got knocked around. He needs more AAA time and you’d have to think he’s starting the year either in XST (if its too cold in Syracuse) or in upstate NY.

So, what about our minor league depth past these four guys? Honestly: there’s not a ton of depth we can count on in AAA or AA. The 40-man names are Fedde, Cole, Voth and Jefry Rodriguez. That’s it.

Here’s a quick glance at our other minor league starters out there who are more likely to be AA or AAA fodder (in rough order of their consideration for the job/likely 2018 assignments)

AAA projected rotation (over-top of those four names above who miss out and who don’t opt out, that is):

Jared Long (he may or may not be a MLFA still; rosterresource.com shows him on the Nats roster but milb.com shows him as a FA): if he’s still with us, he showed two years running he was better than AA. I’d like to see him with a long run in AAA to see if he’s a viable candidate to move up.

John Simms: this home grown product (2013 11th round draftee) has earned promotion after promotion and should start 2018 in AAA. He doesn’t have shutdown stuff, but could be a sneaky candidate for spot starts.

Logan Darnell; this 2018 MLFA signing from Tampa had good AAA success several years running for other organizations and seems like a clear AAA arm eater for now. Can he be more?

Austin Voth; two years ago looked like he could be the next Tanner Roark, but a brutal 2017 season got him demoted to AA. He posted a 3.15 ERA in AAA in 2016; can he get back there? If not, then he’s in clear danger of being first man off the 40-man roster if a spot is needed.

Greg Ross: as with Voth, the Greg Ross train got derailed in upstate New York in 2017, also earning him a demotion. He re-signed though for 2018 to give it another shot and might start in AAA given past success in AA.

Note: at least one of these names likely gets pushed down, especially since Fedde likely isn’t winning the 5th starter job. Jackson and Milone as veterans may have opt-outs and are not likely to stick around, but you never know. And if Cole doesn’t make the team, he’s passing through waivers before he gets to AAA and may not make it. So the AAA rotation will be in flux right up until 4/1/18.

Wirkin Estevez had good AA numbers in 2017 (3.63 ERA in 11 starts after promotion from high-A) and re-signed a ML deal to stay with the organization. He’s probably first AA starter for a need-based promotion.

Tyler Mapes missed all of 2017 after a very solid AA 2016 season; if he’s healthy, he starts here looking to repeat his 2016 performance before getting moved up.

Kyle McGowin; our trade bounty for Danny Espinosa has shown two years running his inability to succeed in AAA. He likely starts in AA again in 2018 given the log-jam in Syracuse.

Matt Crownover had a 4.50 ERA in a full AA season; nothing to really prove he needs to move up (especially given his weak K/9 rates), so likely starts in AA again looking for a mid-season promotion.

Jefry Rodriguez: the newest member of the 40-man roster, Rodriguez will hope to harness his high-A success from last year at the next step up.

Nobody in AA right now who looks like he could help immediately; Rodriguez though may get some spot-start/double header duty since he’s on the 40-man and doesn’t require a corresponding move.

So; are you satisfied with a ST 2018 competition or do you think we need to spend money or prospects on another arm?

Keep in mind; the division is a mess, with Atlanta not really trying, Miami actively getting worse and Philadelphia making curious moves. Only the Mets will challenge, and their big move this off-season has been to sign Adrian Gonzalez . So we don’t need a $20M/year 5th starter. And there’s the luxury tax considerations that keep coming up.

The 2017 MLB rule-4 (Amateur) draftstarts 6/12/17 at 7pm. The MLB Network will have full coverage of the first round of picks. This post is my dumping ground of draft coverage for 2017.

This post uses last year’s format, with links to use to see draft prospect rankings, links to help cover the draft (which I personally come back to time and time again), some blurbs on local players of interest, and then links to a bunch of mock drafts.

MinorLeagueBall.com’s 2017 Player profile index; an index of their profiles of all the top-end draft prospects for this year.

Here’s a slew of Draft Prospect rankings : these are NOT the same as mock drafts; these are independent rankings of the players without consideration to draft considerations. Apologies in advance; many of these are insider/subscription. Fork over the dollars and subscribe and support baseball coverage that you like!

Notice how nearly EVERY list has Greene as the best prospect in this draft? That’s pretty consistent view … but there’s no chance that Greene goes #1 overall. So thanks to the perverse risks associated with drafting prep kids, yet again we will likely see the best prospect not getting taken #1 overall. This seems to happen nearly every year since the Strasburg/Harper drafts. In 2011, Gerrit Cole went 1-1 when Anthony Rendon should have been. In 2012 i think the “right guy” went 1-1 (Carlos Correa). Imagine the Astros right now had they taken Kris Bryant instead of Mark Appel (who didn’t sign and who has yet to matriculate to the majors) in 2013 1-1 overall. Brady Aiken 1-1 overall in 2014 was defensible at the time … but Carlos Rodon was the presumed 1-1 heading into the spring season. I don’t think anyone disputes the Dansby Swanson 1-1 pick in 2015 (it was a weak class), but few think that Mickey Moniak was the best prospect in the 2016 class (most had it as Jason Groome or Riley Pint; Groome fell to 12th thanks to some off-the-field stuff and is now hurt while Pint is struggling in low-A). So its good to be the 2nd team picking this year.

Now, some news about CollegePlayers with local ties who are serious draft candidates (meaning first couple of rounds projected or present on top 100 draft ranking lists). Note that I’ve got a far, far larger list of local players that I’ll follow-up on after the draft; these are just the significant/top 10 round types.

J.B. Bukauskas: has had a fantastic junior season and has become perhaps the 2nd best collegiate pitcher this class. Still undersized … but there are some 6’0″ guys with success in the majors right now.

Adam Haseley: has rocketed up draft boards by being perhaps the 2nd best two way player in college baseball. Upper 1st round talent.

Pavin Smith: 1B only but a sweet, solid bat. Upper 1st round talent.

At this point, all three of these players are projecting in the first half of the first round; no other local player seems close. There’s a slew of other local college kids mentioned in the BA top 200, which means they’re all likely 5th-8th round material.

Local Prep players of note who are serious draft candidates: none this year. Unlike last year, where Joe Rizzo and Khalil Lee both were top 5 round picks, there’s nobody anywhere in the DC/MD/VA landscape that is threatening to be a top-end prep pick (at least as far as I can tell right now).

Nats Re-Draft players of interest: these are guys who the Nats have previously drafted but who did not sign. Using the Nats Draft Tracker as a guide, here’s some prep guys we drafted generally in 2014 who are now rising college juniors and are bigger names in this draft:

Stuart Fairchild, OF from Wake Forest: we drafted him in the 38th round in 2014; he’s now perhaps projected mid 2nd round.

Evan Skoug, C from TCU: we drafted him in the 34th round in 2014; now he’s perhaps projected as a 3rd rounder.

Tommy Doyle, RHP from Flint Hill HS/UVA: we drafted him in the 35th round in 2014, probably as a hat-tip to a local kid more than a possible signee. He’s projected as a 6th rounder after a decent career at UVA coverting to relief.

Quinn Brodey, RHP from Stanford: we drafted him in the 37th round in 2016; now he’s perhaps a 6th-7th rounder projected.

Morgan Cooper: RHP from UTexas; we drafted him in the 34th round last year in 2016: he chose to stay in school to build value and now is projected as a 5th-6th rounder.

Tristan Clarke and Cory Voss: two Juco draftees from 2016 who are draft eligible for 2017. Clarke started for UNO and put up solid numbers, albeit in the weaker Southland conference. Voss only played part-time at UofA and isn’t a draft prospect.

Other Prep draftees in 2014 not mentioned here who are not draft prospects:

Altuve is my fantasy leader for the 2nd year running. Photo via mlblogs.com

Standard disclaimer; I do this post every year. If you don’t play fantasy, you probably won’t care about the 3,000+ words contained herein. You won’t hurt my feelings by not reading. I’ll include a jump so it doesn’t blow out your mobile reader. Back to our regularly scheduled programming next week with final roster analysis once the last bench spots are announced.

Hopefully his MVP vote goes better for Harper than this day did. (Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images)

Everyone does an “Awards Prediction piece.” This post for me is kind of a running diary throughout the season, with the final predictions written at season’s end but then not published until after the WS ends/Awards season starts.

A few awards have already been given out, ones that I don’t necessarily try to predict anymore:

Fielding Bible Awards: not an official award but certainly a better way of evaluating defenders than the Gold Gloves (though, to be fair, they’re getting much much better at identifying the true best defenders year in, year out). No Nats awarded.

Gold Glove Finalists: announced with 3 finalists for each award; Bryce Harper and Wilson Ramos named as finalists but neither will win.

Hank Aaron awards for “Most Outstanding Offensive Player” in each league: Bryce Harper and Josh Donaldson, who not surprisingly is who I chose for my MVP predictions. I kinda wish this was a more prevalent award than the constant arguing we have about MVP.

Relievers of the Year: formerly known as the “Fireman’s reliever awards” and now named for legendary relievers Mariano Rivera/Trevor Hoffman: won this year by Andrew Miller of the Yankees, Mark Melancon of the Pirates.

A whole slew of other Sporting News annual awards: google “sporting news baseball awards 2015” and you can see players of the year, pitcher of the year, post-season all-star teams, manager of the year, etc.

I put all these dates and links plus a whole lot more into my “off-season” calendar, which will publish soon now that the season is officially over.

These are not always who I think *deserve* the awards necessarily, just how I think the voters will vote. There are some really close races. Here’s my thoughts:

NL MVP: Bryce Harper wins for three main reasons: 1) his season is one of the best of the last 50 years. 2) there’s no obvious candidate on any of the division winning teams (no sorry, Yoenis Cespedes doesn’t count) and 3) Even though the Nats didn’t win the division, they were in the race nearly the entire season. No excuses here. You might see some non-Harper votes b/c some middle aged fat slob of a homer writer has some misrepresented axe to grind but he should win easily.

NL Cy Young: Jake Arrieta: I can’t believe I’ve selected Arrieta over Greinke, but Arrieta’s 2nd half will, again, “win the narrative.” Kershaw has been unbelievable too (and my fantasy team in the championship is proof), so really you can’t go wrong with these guys in any order. I think it goes Arrietta, Greinke, Kershaw. Side note; so, is the Baltimore pitching coaching staff the most incompetent in the league or what? How does Arrieta go from being a 6ERA starter in Baltimore to a guy who is posting a sub 2.00 ERA in one of the best hitter’s parks in the league?

NL Rookie: Kris Bryant: for a while I thought this was Joc Pederson‘s to lose … but Bryant kept hitting and Pederson sat. Wow are the Astros kicking themselves for drafting Mark Appel over Bryant or what??

NL Manager: Terry Collins: There’s no team in the NL in a more surprising position than the Mets, so Collins wins the award that our own Matt Williams so richly “earned” last year. I wouldn’t be surprised though to see Joe Maddon get this given how great the Cubs were.

NL Comeback Player of the year has to be Matt Harvey; there’s nobody else really close in the NL.

AL MVP: Josh Donaldson: There’s just no reason Mike Trout shouldn’t win this award … except that voters are a fickle bunch and fall for the story. Donaldson is a good story, playing on a good story of a team in Toronto. He wins.

AL Cy Young: Dallas Keuchel: He was the best in the first half, the ASG starter, and no there’s no reason not to think he finishes off the season. In fantasy he was like a 15th round pick and he’s a top-10 producer. Amazing.

AL Rookie: Carlos Correa: If you want to argue that Francisco Lindor deserves this, I wouldn’t disagree. I’m guessing Correa has the name power with the voters though and wins out. Lindor has a much better average and is a superior defender, but Correa has 20+ homers, a benchmark number that will get him the votes.

AL Manager: Jeff Bannister: Even though Toronto is a surprise team, getting the talent handed to you like that is not the mark of a champion manager. What is going on in Texas is nothing short of amazing. At the beginning of the season the had an *entire rotation* on the D/L: Darvish, Harrison, Perez, Scheppers and Holland. Scheppers may not have stayed there very long, but they looked like a 90-loss team, not a divisional winner over the likes of LA and Houston.

AL Comeback player of the year goes to Prince Fielder for returning strongly from his neck injury. If Alex Rodriguez had missed a year due to injury instead of litigation, he would likely be the winner. By the way; how good was Alex Rodriguez doing color work for Fox Sports at the World Series? He was damn impressive to me, great analysis, well spoken, well-dressed of course … and could not have provided more contrast to Pete Rose if they had found those two guys out of central casting.

So, how did the major awards evolve over the course of the season? By my sense, the awards kind of went like this from April to September:

NL MVP: Stanton to Harper, maybe Goldschmidt, no definitely Harper, narrative Cespedes but has to be Harper. Nobody else makes sense to take it away from him on narrative.

AL Rookie: Travis/Souza early, Burns making a name, but Correa is the leader most of the season, Lindor making noise late, Correa holds on.

As with last year’s version of this post, instead of printing links to writers early and mid-season predictions, I’ll just throw those links into the monthly reviews for context. This post is more like a season-long diary of the evolution of these awards; the sections were written in each month as the season progressed.

BaseballMusings maintains a Cy Young tracker stat, which is useful to identify candidates but not really a predictor.

MVP candidates: Trout stretching lead in AL, Jason Kipnis and Nelson Cruz also high in bWAR. Bryce Harper has stretched a massive WAR lead in the NL, Goldschmidt #2. Anthony Rizzo entering the discussion.

Cy Young candidates: Dallas Keuchel and Sonny Gray in the AL, Max Scherzer really standing alone in the NL; closest WAR pitcher in the NL is Aaron Harang and he isn’t likely to keep the pace.

Rookie of the year candidates: Still Travis and Souza in the AL, Kris Bryant and Joc Pederson in the NL are both explosive players and will be hard to catch.

All Star Break

MVP candidates: Probably still Trout and Harper. Goldschmidt is nearly as good but Harper has the narrative.

Cy Young candidates: Dallas Keuchel and Zack Greinke were the All Star starters and may be the leading candidates. Scherzer needs to get some run support; he’s barely above .500.

Rookie of the year candidates: Former Nat Billy Burns is in the bWAR lead, but Carlos Correa likely gets the nod. In the NL, Bryant/Pederson have a commanding lead but Matt Duffy starting to put his name out there, and if the Cubs would just let Kyle Schwarber stay in the majors he might hit his way to the title.

Mid August

MVP candidates: Trout has competition in the form of Josh Donaldson in the AL. Nobody’s close to Harper in the NL, still.

Cy Young candidates: In the NL, Scherzer’s star has faded while LA’s two aces have each had a significant scoreless innings streak and could finish 1-2. Also in the NL; deserving candidates Jacob deGrom, Jake Arrietta and Gerrit Cole. In the AL, it still looks like a dogfight between Gray and Keuchel. But David Price is coming on strong post-trade and Chris Archer should get some top-5 votes.

Rookie of the year candidates: Its the year of the rookie; never before have we seen so many high-impact rookies in the league at once. The AL seems set for Carlos Correa, with guys like Roberto Osuna, Andrew Heaney and Lance McCullers chasing him. The NL has a number of candidates. Bryant and Pederson have gotten the ink, but guys like Matt Duffy, Jung Ho Kang, Noah Snydergaard and Randal Grichuk are also worthy players. Taylor Jungmann, Kyle Schwarber and even Joe Ross are also rans in the race thanks to later callups. Bryant may win thanks to name recognition, but in other years any of these guys would have been candidates.

Managers of the Year: we’re 100 games into the season, early enough to see some trends in the “Award-given-to-the-manager for his team unexpectedly overachieving the most in 2015” award. In the AL, clearly Houston is the surprise team and in the NL the Mets are the surprise team, so we’ll go with A.J. Hinch and Terry Collins.

Comeback Players of the Year: Early candidates include Brett Anderson, Jeff Francoeur, Danny Espinosa and perhaps Matt Harvey. In the AL, I think it has to be Alex Rodriguez or perhaps Prince Fielder. Perhaps Chris Davis comes into the mix too.

September

MVP candidates: In the AL: Donaldson has overtaken Trout thanks to a huge end-of-season push and Trout’s injury. In the NL, the Nats downturn may have opened up the door for both Anthony Rizzo and Andrew McCutchen. That is if we listen to “narrative” about how teams need to be playing meaningful games. Of course that being said, the Nats are playing very meaningful games; they’re trying to chase down a divisional leader so maybe the narrative still works for Harper. But not after a home sweep, when NY beat writers start beating the drum for Cespedes .. .which would be ridiculous since he only played a couple of months in the NL.

Cy Young candidates: In the AL, it probably comes down to Keuchel and Sale, with Price in the mix too thanks to his sterling season for Toronto post-trade. In the NL: Arrietta has had the greatest 2nd half in baseball history; can he overtake Greinke?

Rookie of the year candidates: In the AL: Francisco Lindor making some noise but its still Correa. In the NL, Pederson has gotten benched so it looks like Bryant is the leader, despite Duffy’s better season by WAR.

Managers of the Year: at this point the “surprise” teams are the Mets and suddenly the Rangers. I’ll go with their managers Collins and Bannister. Some in the NL think Maddon and the Cubs are really the surprise team and they’re kind of right … but I maintain the Mets are even more so.

Comeback Players of the Year: I’ll go with Harvey in the NL, Fielder in the AL; nobody’s giving A-Rod an award.

NY Mets: Only the Mets so far have announced their rotation order. Matt Harvey has quelled shut-down-gate talks by finishing out the season and saying he’d take the ball in the NLDS: hard to see him getting beat in his home game 3 start against the Dodgers, especially given his last outing (6ip, 11Ks). deGrom struggled somewhat down the stretch and Snydergaard is only 22; hard to see them beating the seasoned vets Kershaw/Greinke at home. We still don’t know if Matz is going to be healthy for game 4, but the potential LA opponent isn’t exactly scaring anyone, so I could see this go to a game 5 back in LA with Kershaw getting a 2nd divisional start.

LA: We say this every year: Kershaw is the greatest … and he has a 5+ post-season ERA. I’ll never bet against him in the playoffs, especially not after the September he had. Greinke either wins the Cy Young or finishes a close second, and Wood is an effective 3rd starter. This is a tough rotation to handle. But they’re going against probably the 2nd best rotation in the post-season, meaning this could be a tight 5-game set. Or not; watch every game will be 8-7.

StL: They don’t look tough … but this rotation led the Cardinals to a 100 win season in a division with two other 97+ game winners. That’s pretty amazing. Bet against them at your own peril. They were 11-8 versus the Cubs, 10-9 (and got outscored) against the Pirates, so I’m guessing they’re rooting for a Pittsburgh win in the WC play-in game.

NL Wild Card

Chicago Cubs: Arrieta, Hendricks, Haren, Lester (Hammel)

Pittsburgh Pirates: Cole, Liriano, Happ, Burnett (Morton)

Discussion/Prediction: Arrieta has given up 3 runs in the last month … and two of them were in his road start in Pittsburgh on 9/16/15. I could see a similar start from him again in the Wednesday WC game. So what can the Cubs do with Cole? They have also seen him twice in the last month, got shut down at home but got to him on 9/15/15 in Pittsburgh. Tough one to predict but I’m going with your presumptive Cy Young winner to hold serve in Pittsburgh, sending home the 97 win Pirates for the 2nd straight year in the play-in game. Prediction: Cubs win.

If the Cubs win, they’ll be at a huge disadvantage against the Cards. If the Pirates win, Liriano and Happ have been pitching well enough to get them back to their ace quickly and make a series of it.

AL Divisional Winners

Toronto: Price, Estrada, Buehrle, Dickey/Stroman

Kansas City: Cueto, Ventura, Volquez, Young (Medlen)

Texas: Hamels, Gallardo, Holland, Perez/Lewis

Discussion:

Toronto is setup for the playoffs and will get Price twice. The back-end of their rotation doesn’t exactly inspire confidence in a playoff series, but Toronto isn’t about top-notch pitching. They hope to bash their way to the title and just may do it. Would you roll the dice and sit Dickey for the 4th spot in favor of Stroman and his live arm? Do you insult the veteran Buehrle and leave him off your playoff roster (probably not).

Kansas City: blew Cueto in an attempt to keep home field and were successful, so Ventura likely gets two NLDS starts. Nationals re-tread Young suddenly looks like the #4 starter for a WS contender. Who would have thought that?

Texas burned Hamels just to get to the playoffs; they’ll struggle to compete against two David Price home starts. Who is their #4 in the playoffs? Will Toronto average 6 runs a game against this staff? Could be a short-post season run for the Rangers; no judgement here; they’ve done fantastically just to get into the playoffs given the number of rotation injuries and their poor start.

AL Wild Card

Houston: Keuchel, McHugh, McCullers, Kazmir/Fiers

New York Yankees: Tanaka, Severino, Pineda, Nova (Sabathia)

Discussion/Prediction: well, it doesn’t look good for the Yankees; Keuchel is scheduled to start and has thrown twice against New York this year: he threw a 6-hit shutout with 12 Ks against them in June and then threw 7 innings of 3-hit shutout ball in late August. He’s your shoe-in Cy Young Winner and seems likely to pitch the Astros into the divisional series. New York counters with Tanaka; in his sole appearance vs Houston he got lit up (5ip, 6runs) and the Yankees seem like they’re struggling just to field a lineup at season’s end. They get the home game but likely go out a loser to end their season. And if the Yankees somehow won, they’d have thrown their best pitcher … and one of the presumptive rotation members just checked himself into Alcohol Rehab. Prediction: Astros Win.

Interesting collection of guys with Washington ties featuring prominently in the 2015 playoffs.

Dan Haren was nearly released mid-season because he was so bad in Washington 2 years ago, now he’s the #3 starter on a 97 win team.

Marco Estrada was waived by the Nats after a long and uninspiring minor league career; now he’s the #2 starter for the AL favorite?

Chris Young played a whole season for Syracuse in 2013, working his way back from an injury. When he didn’t make the 2014 roster he signed with Seattle and has been pretty effective since.

Marcus Stroman was an 18th round pick out of HS by the Nats; he was listed as a SS (he’s only 5’8″) but went to Duke, became a power arm and was a 1st round pick by the Blue Jays 3 years later.

Colby Lewis signed on with the Nats back in the bad years, failing to make the team out of Spring Training in 2007. He hooked on with Oakland, playing most of the year in Sacramento before signing a 2-year gig in Japan.

At least half of these guys being what i’d call an “Ace” in this league, and a handful more that are easily #2’s.

That’s just a brutal stretch. By my estimates, I had the Nats with a favorable pitching match-up just three times in their first 16 games back: Zimmermann over Bolsinger (a win), Scherzer over Locke (a bad loss), and Scherzer over Haren (a 1-0 squeaker win). Certainly I did not have us with a favorable matchup in any of the 3 games this weekend, and it was little surprise to me to see us get swept. I thought we’d be lucky to be at .500 for these 16 games and with some bad luck they ended up this stretch 6-10.

Now here’s the good news. We should get pretty healthy in the next week or so. We face Arizona at home with four pitching matchups that favor Washington. Then Colorado comes to town and are throwing a couple of guys that I’ve frankly never even heard of (Yohan Flande and Eddie Butler). So a week from now we may be on a 6-1 or 5-2 streak and be back in happy town.

The Nats have been very streaky this year. With apologies to “arbitrary endpoint” haters, you can divide the season into five neat streaks:

Start Date

End Date

Wins during Streak

Losses during streak

Record at end of Streak

GB or GA in Division

Key moments starting/ending streak

4/6/2015

4/27/2015

7

13

7-13

-8 GB

Opening day instability of offense leads to sputtering start.

4/28/2015

5/27/2015

21

6

28-19

+1.5 GA

Unbelievable 13-12 win in Atlanta on 4/28 ends 7-13 start to season and kicks off a 21-6 run

And now here we stand, on 8/3/15, even up with the Mets for the division and just a handful of games over .500. Inarguably the Mets made great moves at the trade deadline. But remember, they’ll face the same post-TJ decision on Harvey that the Nats did with Strasburg in 2012. And Snydergaard’s max IP was 133 last year; He’s already at that for 2015 and its just the beginning of August. Both these guys may be looking at regression or outright damage as they rocket past conservative workloads for 2015. Will that work to the Nats’ favor?

I still like the Nats offensive capabilities once they’re fully healthy. Its like getting players at the trade deadline, only you don’t have to bet the farm for them. Will they hold up through the end of the season? Will Strasburg return and give us the same level of pitching that Joe Ross has in his absence? Lets hope so.

Will the Nats be staring down Kershaw in the playoffs? Photo via wiki.

Here we are. After a crazy trade deadline in July, and an August and September that featured the division leaders (in most cases) solidifying their positions and extending their leads, the playoffs are upon us.

Lets take a look at the rotations of the playoff teams (despite the fact that the four Wild Card teams are just one-man pitching staffs until they win the play-in game). Who lines up best? For each team i’ve tried to line the pitchers up one through five, with the 5th guy being the one headed to the bullpen.

Just look at what the Dodgers have tried to do to keep their rotation afloat in terms of player acquisition over the past couple of years. I’d like to have their budget. They will have no less than eleven capable, MLB-experienced starters once they’re all healthy. Yes Kershaw is unbeatable, but as pointed out earlier this year, they are basically a .500 team otherwise. Their 4th and 5th starters have been below replacement for much of the past month but they’re getting back Ryu right in time for the playoffs. St. Louis’ rotation looks just as strong as it has been for the past few years; Wainwright quietly has 20 wins and a 2.38 ERA on the season. Lynn has been great. Only Miller has struggled but still has a league-average ERA+.

It is hard not to look at the Nationals’ rotation and claim they’re the deepest one-through-four, despite Gonzalez’s struggles. I’d take our #4 (Fister) over anyone else’s #4, I think our #3 matches up just as favorably to anyone els’es #3, and Strasburg has a 1.34 ERA in September as the #1.

NL Wild Card:

Pittsburgh: Liriano, Cole, Locke, Volquez, Worley (Morton dinged up late Sept, made way for Cole).

San Francisco: Bumgarner, Hudson, Petit, Vogelsong, Peavy(Lincecum to bullpen for Petit, Cain out all year)

The NL WC pitching match-up will be Bumgarner-Liriano. Both teams manipulated their rotations at season’s end to preserve their aces for the coin-flip game. We’ll do a separate prediction piece.

The Braves fell so far, so badly in September that they were nearly surpassed by the lowly NY Mets for 2nd place in the NL East. That’s crazy. But they still remain here as an also-ran because they were in the wild card race until mid-September. I still think it is crazy what they were able to accomplish given the starting pitcher injuries they suffered in spring training and don’t quite understand why Frank Wren was fired. If you want to fire him for his crummy FA contracts so be it; but the man engineered a team that made the playoffs three of the past five years. Harsh treatment if you ask me. Insider comments seem to think that Wren lost an internal power-struggle involving Fredi Gonzalez.

It is hard to look at these rotations and comprehend where these teams currently stand:

How is Baltimore leading the AL East by 12 games? None of these guys are a league-wide “Ace.”

How is Detroit not pulling away from the AL Central with this collection of arms? Of course, you could ask this question of Detroit over and again the past few years; with a stacked lineup and stacked rotation they have just barely won their (usually) weak division year after year.

How does Los Angeles have the best record in the majors with a non-drafted FA and a waiver claim in their Sept rotation? Would you favor this rotation over Detroit’s?

I guess it doesn’t matter; these teams have bashed their way to their titles and should continue to hit in the post-season. Apparently the O’s aren’t going to go with Gausman in their playoff rotation despite his good seasonal numbers. It may be a case of veteran manager going with the veterans, as Gausman’s numbers are pretty much in line with most of the rest of the Baltimore rotation. The injury to Richards really hurts the Angels: Weaver may be close to an Ace but Wilson showed he is hittable in the post-season and lord knows what will happen when LA has to throw their #3 and #4 choices.

AL Wild Cards:

Kansas City: Shields, Duffy, Ventura, Guthrie, Vargas

Oakland: Grey, Samardzija, Lester, Hammel, Kazmir

AL Wild Card looks like a knock-out match-up of Shields and Lester; the A’s burned Grey yesterday to get the win that put them in the playoffs. Oakland has to be kicking themselves; how did they go from (easily) the best team in the majors for the first half to struggling to hang onto the WC spot? On paper replacing 3/5ths of the rotation (out with Chavez, Milone, Pomeranz and Straily, in with Samardzija, Lester and Hammel) sounded like a great idea … but to me the team’s chemistry was clearly un-balanced. At least they held on to the spot and avoiding a one-game play-in against Felix Hernandez.

AL Also-Rans:

Seattle: Hernandez, Walker, Iwakuma, Paxton, Young (Elias out for year)

New York: McCarthy, Greene, Kuroda, Capuano, Pineda (with Tanakafinally coming back at season’s end. Nova and Sabathia gone all year with injuries).

All Seattle needed to do was *get* to the wild card game … and they’d have great odds of advancing behind ace Hernandez. But struggled to the finish line. Meanwhile Cleveland and New York would have been mentioned here a week ago, but both squads just ran out of time to make comebacks. I’ll give NY credit: they played 7 games better than their pythagorean record with huge chunks of their rotation gone for the season and depending on guys who’s names I had to look up.

(Standard disclaimer; this is ranting about my fake baseball team. If you don’t play fantasy, might as well skip this).

I’m really beginning to question my abilities in fantasy sports. Despite being deep into baseball and knowing random things off the top of my head that should be of use in fantasy (which managers are more inclined to do closer by committee, which ball parks are skewed offensively and thus players who play there may be at an advantage), I struggle year after year.

This year, thanks to an unfortunately timed meltdown (I lost a week 0-10-2 after having been ahead early in the week), I dropped just out of the playoff spots in my league (top 6 make the playoffs out of a 12 team league). But the ills of my team were seen early. Once again, I was plagued by under performing players and a poor draft that left me churning the waiver wire. By the end of the season I had made 58 of the 65 allotted moves in a failed attempt to improve enough to sneak into the playoffs (where honestly, I would have been a tough out; I can grind out 6-5-1 wins with the best of them).

So, what happened? Here’s a link to the post talking about my initially drafted team. And here’s a matrix of my 21 initially drafted players, their performance on the year and a note indicating whether or not they over- or under-achieved (bold means on the team at year’s end, red = badly under performed, green = greatly over-performed).

Player

round Drafted/# Drafted overall

Yahoo o-rank 2013

Yahoo O-rank 2014

ADP at time of draft

2014 Perf Rank

Adam Jones-OF

1st round (#10 overall)

7

13

10th/11.4

21

Adrian Beltre-3B

2nd round (#15)

15

12

13th/13.2

46

Alex Rios-OF

3rd round (#34)

25

44

34th/35

179

Giancarlo Stanton-OF

4th round (#39)

222

26

24th/27.8

5

Kenly Janssen-RP

5th round (#58)

52

48

49th/53.2

102

Greg Holland-RP

6th round (#63)

36

63

62nd/62

60

Mark Trumbo-1B/OF

7th round (#82)

66

78

53rd/56.0

944

Carlos Santana-C/1B

8th round (#87)

134

87

69th/74.0

159

Shelby Miller-SP

9th round (#106)

76

88

110th/113.0

485

Hyung-Jin Ryu-SP

10th round (#111)

85

101

124th/127.2

95

Aaron Hill-2B

11th round (#130)

402

111

124th/115.8

364

Danny Salazar-SP

12th round (#135)

336

96

154th/150.4

355

Tony Cingrani-SP

13th round (#154)

152

133

156th/156.8

941

Jim Henderson-RP

14th round (#159)

130

155

170th/175.0

750

Shane Victorino-OF

15th round (#178)

67

113

125th/129.0

1144

Chris Archer-SP

16th round (#183)

175

171

208th/209.0

314

Asdrubal Cabrera-SS

17th round (#202)

267

151

171st/177.4

177

J.J. Hoover-RP

18th round (#207)

237

629

344th

922

Tim Hudson-SP

19th round (#226)

299

300

311th

171

Brandon Belt-1B

20th round (#231)

106

104

142th

988

Jake Odorizzi-SP

21st round (#250)

548

358

445th

197

So, what happened?

My first two picks didn’t underperform “badly,” but were not the super stars you need to take hold of a league. I didn’t really like Adam Jones or Adrian Beltre at the draft, and despite some hot streaks they’ve been disappointments. Beltre got hurt in camp and missed games at the beginning of the season. My #3 pick Alex Rios I finally gave up on and waived; his seasonal rank of 179 belies what he’s done the last two months (closer to the 900 ranked range). It’s never a good sign when your #3 pick gets waived thanks to performance (and not injury) reasons.

Giancarlo Stanton is my one major “win” out of the draft; a 4th round pick who likely will finish in the top 5 of stats on the season. At the time of this writing, he was trailing only Mike Trout in terms of fantasy rankings for offensive players. He single-handedly carried my team offensively for weeks on end and is a large reason that my team offense was 1st in homers and 3rd in RBI. I feel vindicated here: I suffered through at least two injury-riddled Stanton seasons in the past after having drafted him highly, and he’ll have the same issue next year; he’ll likely be a top-5 pick with a huge injury risk on his head.

My two big-time closers did not disappoint: both Janssen and Holland performed as expected and led me to be 5th in team saves and have a 14-7-1 record in the category on the year. This is a big lesson learned for me; you can get by with just two big-time closers and be successful in this category. Of course, I wanted more closers but got unlucky; my #3 closer Jim Henderson suddenly and without warning was yanked from the role on opening day. Another team vultured his replacement (Francisco “K-rod” Rodriguez); all he’s done is pitch lights out all year and is 6th in the league in saves. That should have been my 3rd closer. That was a disappointment. I tried just one waiver-wire closer grab (Chad Qualls for Houston) and despite picking correctly, Qualls went weeks without save opportunities so I dumped him after two weeks looking for more starter quality.

Lets talk about the god-awful positional player issues I had in the draft: Mark Trumbo started out white-hot, fractured his foot and missed months. Aaron Hill did not come closer to living up to the hype of fantasy analysts. Shane Victorino was on and off the D/L all year. And poor Brandon Belt fractured his thumb, fought his way back and then got hit in the head during BP and still remains on the concussion D/L.

Of the Starting Pitchers I gambled on: Shelby Miller struggled all year, Danny Salazar got demoted, as did Tony Cingrani. Chris Archer did not produce at fantasy levels and Jake Odorizzi struggled early and was dropped (I eventually picked him back up). I only kept two drafted starters on the team all year (Ryu and Hudson) and frankly Hudson was so bad for so long that I came pretty close to dumping him. That basically means that my “wait on starters” strategy was a complete failure, if I’m only keeping ONE decent starter the whole year.

So, for the 2nd straight year I cycled the waiver wires. Here’s some of the guys I went through:

Scheppers I took a gamble on b/c his numbers were so good as a reliever; mistake. He got shelled opening day and soon was on the D/L. A number of these pitchers were decent moves and pitched well for a while (especially Josh Beckett and Marcus Strohman). The biggest failure here was dumping Corey Kluber after he got hit hard opening day: He’s turned into the 16th best fantasy performer all year, a 2nd round talent. That was a huge mistake. I liked Eovaldi‘s peripherals (lots of Ks) but he struggled with runners and his ERA/WHIP were inflated all year. Skaggs got hurt, Kennedy was ineffective. I got great value for a while out of Keuchel, but after a good mid-summer he tailed off badly. Garcia made like one start before returning to the D/L. Josh Beckett was a great waiver wire pickup for a while, but he too got hurt and remains on the D/L today. Alex Wood was a great find. I snaked Gerrit Cole off the D/L just before he came back on but he contributed little. Most of my other experiments were far too inconsistent week-to-week to trust (see Trevor Bauer, Despaigne, Mike Leake, etc).

As mentioned before, I only tried to gamble on one closer waiver wire pickup thanks to the solid two starters that I had from draft day. Most of the available closers on the waiver wire were in committee situations and couldn’t be trusted anyway.

I worked 1B, 2B, and 3B hard. At one point I was trying to engineer a 3B trade, having Seager while he was hot and Arenado after he came off the D/L. But my potential trade partners badly low-balled me for Beltre (offering guys who were worth far less than Beltre was) and suddenly Seager dropped off a cliff, making his trade value useless. Eventually I dumped both.

1B pickups Napoli, Duda and especially Carter turned out to be huge winners. Once again proving my point that some positions are just so deep they’re not worth drafting. Same with outfielders to a certain extent; I had Ozuna all year and he’s turned out to be well worth it.

My season’s end Fantasy team after all this waiver wire churning. Bold are original, red are waiver wire:

You only need two big-time closers to compete. Spend draft picks in the 5th and 6th rounds, try to get a third closer later on and you’ll do fine. You must do a better job on the waiver wire though trying to grab closers if you want them.

There’s always 1B talent on waivers. Do not over-spend on 1B.

My strategy of over-loading on mediocre starters just doesn’t seem to be working. I was 3rd in wins and 5th in Ks, but 8th in ERA, dead last in losses and 11th in whip. Meanwhile the #1 team this year went with an uber-pitching strategy (over-drafting starters and ending up with Kershaw, Sale, Felix Hernandez as well as several top closers) and he just dominated pitching. Despite having a ton of starters, he managed to be 4th in Wins AND be 2nd in Whip. I think he’s got a good strategy. And i’m sure people will try to emulate it next year.

Do not sweat churning and burning waiver wire picks early on; you may just end up with a monster surprise player on the year. This was the 1st place team’s strategy and it netted him Charlie Blackmon and a couple of extra closers. Two of the top 10 starters on the year were waiver wire guys: CoreyKluber and Garrett Richard.

Do not hesitate grabbing big-name call-ups. I missed out on more than a couple guys that I would have grabbed but hesitated. This cost me last year with Yasiel Puig and it cost me this year with Jorge Soler and George Springer. I waited, and I missed out.

While researching for the #1 overall pick Starting Pitching matchup post, I found myself typing up little mini biographies on each of the pitchers. I ended up moving that content to a new post, which you see here. This is probably the last draft-related post for a while, until I summarize how our draft picks did at the end of the season.

Here’s a biography and career summary of every pitcher who’s been taken #1 overall in the history of the MLB draft, which started in 1965. PeterGammons.com has a review of all #1 picks, which looks like a nicer-formatted version of the b-r.com page. Dave Cameronwrote a WSJ article talking about the fact that just two HS arms have been drafted 1-1 prior to 2014 and they were both failures, and Baseball Prospectus’s Steve Goldman printed his own own version of this same post in 2009 with great insight not otherwise available, but it was light on details for the last 5 or so guys.

Believe it or not, there’s only been 17 pitchers picked first overall (including 2014) … and there’s *never* been a prep right handed starter picked. Fourteen of the seventeen first overall pitchers selected came from college, and twelve of those fourteen were right handed pitchers.

Here’s a brief history of each #1 overall pitcher.

2014: Brady Aiken, LHP from Cathedral Catholic HS in San Diego, drafted 1st overall by the Houston Astros in 2014. Issues with pre-draft consensus 1-1 Carlos Rodon led the Astros to go with just the third prep pitcher ever to go #1 overall. Aiken is considered the best talent in this draft by nearly every pundit, with a live arm, good mechanics, 3 excellent pitches and good command. He quickly signed a below-slot deal, saving the Astros a ton of money that should enable them to sign over-slot deals later on in their draft. There’s plenty of draft coverage of Aiken in the normal places, so we’ll focus on the previous guys who by now have at least a bit of pro experience.

2013: Mark Appel, RHP from Stanford, drafted by the Houston Astros in 2013. Appel had quite a draft day history; he was picked in the 15th round out of HS and didn’t sign. And then in 2012 he was thought to be the #1 draft prospect in the draft (the first year where there were significant restrictions on bonuses by slot) but fell to #8. The Pirates drafted him at #8 but couldn’t put together an over-slot enough deal to convince him to forgo his senior year. So that’s what he did; pitched his senior year and then went #1 overall to Houston, who got him to sign an under-slot deal soon after the draft. Appel was assigned to low-A to finish out the 2013 season and did well, but has struggled mightily in 2014 for Houston’s high-A team. Some say that he has been unable to adjust to Houston’s “tandem” starting scheme, where guys throw fewer innings/pitches per outing but throw more frequently (every 4 days). I agree; I think Houston is really foolish to take a prized possession such as Appel and shoe-horn him into a weird/non traditional rotation experiment. Put him in AA, put him throwing regularly every 5 days and see what he can do. As of this writing, he sports an 11+ era in the California League, having given up 10 runs in one 1 1/3 inning-outing at the end of May. The word on the street was that he was suffering from a hand issue which prevented him from locating (but didn’t sap his velocity); still; that’s an awful lot of hits and runs to give up to A-ball players for a guy who (in some opinions) could be in the majors right now. Is it too early to worry?

2011: Gerrit Cole, RHP from UCLA, drafted by the Pittsburgh Pirates. Cole was part of an amazing 1-2 punch at UCLA in 2011 (his rotation mate was Trevor Bauer, taken 3rd overall in the same draft. Amazingly, UCLA didn’t even advance out of its own regional despite having two top-3 starters in their rotation). Cole didn’t pitch in 2011, but “solved” high-A and AA in his first pro season in 2012 and was called up in mid 2013 once he’d cleared super-2 status by the cost-conscious Pittsburgh Pirates. He was excellent in 2013, maintaining a sub 3.00 FIP for the year and helping Pittsburgh make the post season for the first time in a generation.

2009: Stephen Strasburg, RHP from San Diego State, drafted by Washington. We all are quite familiar with the story by now; Strasburg was a laconic out-of-shape hurler in high school who barely merited a college spot, then re-made himself into the “greatest pitching prospect of all time” while at San Diego State. Despite his reported bonus demands (he ended up with more than $15M deal) and his representation (Scott Boras), the Nats never seriously not selecting him with their first round pick. The team played the “service time” game with him, keeping him in the minors until his super-2 eligibility was exhausted, then he struck out 14 Pirates in his MLB debut.

2007: David Price, LHP from Vanderbilt, drafted by Tampa Bay. Price was the friday starter for Vanderbilt, who entered the 2007 post season as the #1 overall CWS seed but who somehow lost in their regional. Price signed late (this was before the moved-up signing deadline and often big-money draft picks had to wait for the signing deadline to be announced) so he didn’t debut until 2008. He quickly proved to be un-hittable in high-A or AA and was promoted to the big club in September of his first pro season. He was up and down (both to and from Durham and in terms of performance in 2009) before exploding onto the scene in 2010, going 19-6 and finishing 2nd in the Cy Young race to Felix Hernandez. Price won the Cy Young in 2012 in a close race and is generally been considered one of the best 10-15 pitchers in the game. The biggest question with Price now is where he’ll end up; he’s arbitration eligible and earning a significant portion of the Tampa payroll, and his name has been in the trade rumors for two years running. However 2014 may finally be the time Price moves on; Tampa has the worst record in the majors and probably starts making moves as soon as the all-star break passes. I look for Price to join a playoff contender and have a real impact in 2014 and 2015 before his 9-figure payday arrives.

2006: Luke Hochevar, RHP from Tennessee/Indy league, drafted by Kansas City. Hochevar burned quite a few bridges in Los Angeles prior to his joining Kansas City; he was drafted by the Dodgers twice, the second time agreeing to and then reneging on a 1st round deal worth nearly $3M in 2005. Instead he played Indy ball and went 1st overall in 2006 to the Royals, who gave him a (now banned) MLB deal with significantly more money than the Dodgers offered. He debuted in 2007, but generally struggled as a starter for the Royals for the next 5 seasons (compiling a 38-59 record in those years). In 2013 he remade himself as a wipe-out 8th inning guy, posting a 215 ERA+ for the rising royals. Unfortunately, he sucummed to the dreaded Tommy John disease early in 2014 and had surgery on 3/7/14. Hochevar’s injury couldn’t be more badly timed; he’s a free agent this upcoming season and likely will have to sign a non-guaranteed deal until he can show he’s recovered.

2002: Bryan Bullington, RHP from Ball State, drafted by the Pittsburgh Pirates. Bullington’s selection by the penurious Pirates was considered a “signability pick,” with the GM given direction to sign a “safe” college pitcher as opposed to one of the prep talents that were higher ranked on most draft boards. So Pittsburgh selected Bullington (in lieu of B.J. Upton, Prince Fielder or a slew of other now-successful MLBers from the 2002 draft). To be fair, Bullington was considered the #1 college arm in the 2002 draft, but few thought he was the #1 overall talent. He held out for months, finally signing in October of 2002 for $4M. He progressed slwoly through the Pittsburgh system, debuting in September 2005. He was hurt though, got diagnosed with a torn labrum and the Oct 2005 surgery cost him all of 2006. He never was really effective afterwards, sputtering through 2007 and part of 2008. Pittsburgh waived him in 2008. After that he bounced around 3 organizations in the next 3 years, ending up with a callup by Toronto in late 2010 where he threw 8 innings of shut-out ball to earn is sole major league victory. For the last three years he has pitched in the Japanese Nippon league.

1997: Matt Anderson, RHP from Rice, drafted by Detroit. Detroit picked the Rice hurler believing that his position (closer) and his velocity (100mph capabilities) would mean that he was quick to the majors and they were right; after dominating high-A and AA, he was in Detroit’s bullpen by late June 1998. He had a great debut season but mostly struggled with control issues (career 5.5 bb/9) as a 7th/8th inning guy. He tore a muscle in his shoulder in 2002 (allegedly by participating in an Octopus-throwing contest earlier in the day), which sapped him of his velocity upon his return. Detroit sent him to AAA in 2004 and then released him at the end of the season. After 2005, he bounced around 3 different organizations, attempted a comeback in 2011 with the Phillies and now is completely out of baseball.

1996: Kris Benson, RHP from Clemson, drafted by the Pittsburgh Pirates. Unlike the Bullington pick, Benson was the consensus #1 player in the draft, having just completed an undefeated junior season at Clemson, leading them to the CWS, and being named the College player of the year. He spent two nondescript years in the minors and joined Pittsburgh’s rotation in the 1999 season. He had two good seasons, then blew out his elbow and missed all of 2001 recovering from Tommy John. He returned to the mound in 2003 and pitched like a #3/#4 starter for several years until being befelled again by injury. This time it was more serious; a torn labrum. By this point he had been traded from Pittsburgh to New York to Baltimore and had brought his “road show” along with him (he was married to former stripper Anna Benson, who on more than a few occasaions made headlines thanks to her curious behavior. It is alleged in some circles that the Mets traded Benson just to rid themselves of his wife’s antics). He missed the whole 2007 season and a good chunk of 2008 with shoulder soreness, bounced around a couple more organizations, and called it a career after 2010. He made 200 career starts in the majors and had a 70-75 record all in all. He filed for divorce from his (crazy) wife, who then was arrested after showing up at his house with weapons while wearing a bullet-proof vest. I’ll be honest; his devotion to charitable causes doesn’t seem congruous with his marriage to an ex-stripper. Maybe that’s a bit judgemental on my behalf

1994: Paul Wilson, RHP from Florida State, drafted by the New York Mets. Wilson was part of a trio of high-end Mets pitching prospects who were expected to be the next wave of power arms for the team (himself, along side of Jason Isringhausen and Fairfax’s Bill Pulsipher). Wilson’s career peak may have been the year after he was drafted, throwing 180+ innings in the minors. He struggled in 1996 at the major league level and subsequently had to have Labrum surgery. That cost him most of 1997 and 1998 … then to add insult to injury he tore his UCL and had to have Tommy John in 1999. By this point the Mets were apparently tired of waiting for him to develop and traded him to Tampa Bay. There, he finally got back on the field in 2000 and pitched well enough to earn a 4yr deal from Cincinnati. Unfortunately, he tore his rotator cuff, underwent his third surgery as a professional … and never made it back afterwards. He tried to rehab the arm in the minors in 2006, suffered a set-back, took a non-guaranteed deal in 2007, had a set-back, and tried Indy ball in 2008 before being released and retiring. Despite all these injuries he managed to make 150+ major league starts.

1991: Brien Taylor, North Carolina HS, LHP, drafted by the New York Yankees. One of only three high school pitchers ever taken number one overall and (excluding the two most recent draftees) he’s the only player on this list who never appeared in the majors. Taylor was hitting 98-99 as a HS pitcher, had an absolutely astounding 21 K/9 rate (he struck out 213 in just 88 HS innings), and by more than one scout’s opinoin was the greatest high school pitching prospect the game has seen. Unfortunately he suffered a significant shoulder injury (a rotator cuff tear that separated the cuff from the bone) in a bar fight while in the minors, missed an entire season after surgery, and lost 8mph off his fastball. The Yankees released him without his ever appearing above AA. After bounching around odd jobs, he was arrested for cocaine trafficing in 2012 and is currently in federal prison. ESPN has a great oral-history just posted about Taylor, with all sorts of quotes from Yankees officials of the day. He’s a sad story all around.

1989:Ben McDonald, RHP from LSU, drafted by the Baltimore Orioles. He was the consensus #1 overall pick, the best player in the college game the year prior, and had just led USA baseball to the gold medal in the 1988 olympics. He is one of the most “close to the majors” pitchers ever drafted. He signed on August 21st and made his MLB debut just 18 days later, pitching out of the bullpen. In July 1990, he pitched a 4-hit shut-out in his major league debut, a game I distinctly remember watching on TV. McDonald was a phenom and was going to bring Baltimore back to the promised land. It never happened: McDonald struggled with injuries and ended up leaving Baltimore after his initial deal ended. In Milwaukee he was pitching well but suffered a torn rotator cuff, from which he never recovered. McDonald was out of baseball at the age of 29. In the years since, he was elected to the College Baseball Hall of Fame, a nod to his completely dominant career at LSU.

1988: Andy Benes, RHP from Evansville University, drafted by the San Diego Padres. Career 1989-2002. Benes was a “pop up” guy who went from being an unknown prospect to a first rounder thanks to an amazing 21-K outing his junior year in college. The Padres were “drafting for need” somewhat and had targeted a quick-to-the-majors college arm to be their #1 pick, and Benes was the best available choice. He was a multi-sport player in college, which some pundits believe limited his pitching development. He was known to have an excellent fastball with great command … and little else. Nonetheless, he flashed through the minors and debuted in 1989, finishing 5th in the Rookie of the Year voting. For the next six years he was basically a #3 starter/innings eater for San Diego, never missing a start, putting up great K/9 numbers and compiling a near .500 record for a series of decent-to-awful Padres teams. He was traded to Seattle in 1995 (for one Ron Villone) in his walk year to join the Mariners for their playoff run, then signed a 2-year deal with St. Louis. He pitched well in St. Louis, even getting Cy Young votes, but then a contract snafu led him to join Arizona ahead of their debut season, where he threw the first pitch in franchise history. After his stint in Arizona, he came back to St. Louis but a series of injuries cause him to miss significant time during his last two seasons. He pitched excellently in the 2nd half of 2002, but his declining health (he suffered from an arthritic knee, which sapped him of his power, forced him to pitch with a knee brace and caused him to become more of a finesse guy later in his career) caused the Cardinals to decline their 2003 option on Benes. Frustrated with his health and unwilling to pitch anywhere but in St. Louis, Benes retired in the winter of 2002.

1983: Tim Belcher, RHP from Mount Vernon Nazarene College, drafted by the Minnesota Twins. Career 1987-2000. Technically Belcher was a #1 overall pick twice. He was drafted by Minnesota #1 overall but didn’t sign (Minnesota was known to be cheap with their money back then), and then was picked #1 again in the January 1984 supplimental draft phase by the Yankees. Belcher visited two more organizations before making his debut, getting snagged by Oakland from the Yankees as FA compensation, then getting flipped to the Dodgers after Belcher struggled in the minors. He was immediately effective for Los Angeles though, giving them several good seasons after finally debuting at age 25. He threw EIGHT shutouts in 1989 enroute to a 5th place Cy Young finish, his most effective season as a pro. He was flipped to Cincinnati (for Erik Davis) and bounced around 5 other orgnaizations from there, always featuring as a #3-#4 starter quality guy who stayed relatively healthy and ate innings but was nothing more. His career was ended thanks mostly to an elbow surgery late in 1999; he tried to come back in 2000 but was mostly ineffective and hung them up in spring training of 2001. He served as a coach in the Cleveland organization for most of the rest of the decade but (as far as I can tell) has been out of the game since 2011.

1981: Mike Moore, RHP from Oral Roberts, drafted by the Seattle Mariners. Career 1982-1995. Moore was already a known quantity, having been drafted in the 3rd round out of High School. After being drafted by Seattle (who by 1981 also had former #1 overall pick Bannister on their payroll), Moore made just 14 minor league starts before debuting in the majors in April of 1982. Predictably, he got hammered. Seattle was generally awful during Moore’s entire tenure there, despite his putting up several 5-6win seasons. When he made it to free agency, he joined Oakland and immediately became the leader of a world series winning squad. He finished his career off by vastly underperforming during a 3yr/$10M contract with Detroit, ending with his being released a month before his contract ended. He ended up with a career profile quite similar to some of the names above here (especially the likes of Benes and Belcher): decent career, #3 starter ceiling, .500 pitcher.

1976: Floyd Bannister, LHP from Arizona State, drafted by the Houston Astros. Career 1977-1992. As with Moore after him, Bannister was a 3rd round pick out of HS but opted to go to Arizona State, where (like McDonald and Benson after him) he was the collegiate player of the year and the clear #1 overall prospect in the draft. And like several guys before him, he ended up being less of a total Ace and more of a #3/#4 starter, .500 career record kind of hurler. He probably had his best season for the White Sox in 1987, but knocked around three more organizations and Japan after that, retiring in 1992 with 363 career starts.

1973: David Clyde, Texas HS LHP drafted by the Texas Rangers. Career 1973-1979. The first ever pitcher taken #1 overall was Clyde, who turned into a cautionary tale of what NOT to do with your prep draftees: Clyde was a Texas-based high school phenom who had an amazing senior year and was the consensus #1 overall pick. But Texas did something rather extraordinary; they drafted Clyde and then immediately put him on the major league roster. He ended up starting 18 games for Texas as an 18 yr old, mostly as a publicity stunt by the owner, looking for increased box office revenue. He got hurt, was traded to Cleveland and was out of the league by the age of 24. His wikipedia page is a good read; after retiring he went through some tough times but seemed to come out ok.

Best career of any #1 overall pick by total bWAR: Andy Beneswith 31.7 bWAR compiled over a 14 year career where he was basically a .500 starter (career record: 155-139, career ERA+ was 104). Belcher didn’t quite have the bWAR but had the longest career of any of these guys. You can probably argue that David Price is more successful already by virtue of his Cy Young award.

Least successful #1 overall pick: clearly Brien Taylor, the only one of these 17 players who never reached the majors (excepting recent picks Appel and Aiken of course). A couple of the other picks here at least made the majors but compiled negative bWAR for their brief careers.