Gallup: Approval for Supreme Court steady as GOP favor soars

posted at 4:41 pm on July 14, 2014 by Ed Morrissey

The recent Supreme Court decision on Hobby Lobby has had an impact on the approval rating for the nation’s top judicial panel, but it’s not exactly what detractors of the decision predicted. Paralleling the Economist/YouGov poll last week, Gallup’s most recent poll shows that overall approval and disapproval has stayed nearly constant over the past year or more. The profound change has taken place in the composition of both segments:

Americans remain divided in their assessments of the U.S. Supreme Court, with 47% approving of the job it is doing, and 46% disapproving. These ratings are consistent with approval lastSeptember, when 46% approved and 45% disapproved, and rank among the lowest approval ratings for the court in Gallup’s 14-year trend.

That’s true, but most of that took place between 2009 and 2012. The overall ratings since the first ObamaCare decision have been 49/40, 46/45, and 47/46. This result is nothing more than statistical noise on the overall trend of the last two-plus years.

However, what underlies it is decidedly not statistical noise. Have a look at the chart for approval by party ID, especially since that ObamaCare decision in 2012:

The most interesting trendline here might be that of the independents. Approval has trended slightly downward over time, but today’s 44% is still within the MOE of 2006’s 48% [see update below], and not quite as low as the mid-2008 approval rating, which is unlabeled or the post-ObamaCare 42% level. Their expectations may be set a little more rationally, and so avoid the spikes and plummets seen in the other demos in party-ID approval.

Otherwise, this looks … pretty familiar. When the Supreme Court ruled in favor of the Bush administration, the GOP loved SCOTUS — 80% at one point and 75% at another — while Democratic approval bottomed out at 40% at least twice. After the court upheld ObamaCare, suddenly the Supremes were the greatest thing among Democrats since Diana Ross went solo, while among Republicans they became as popular as Yoko Ono in 1970. It’s worth noting, too, that Obama lost a lot in this last session of the Supreme Court, and the dramatic changes seen here may not all be about Hobby Lobby, either.

Unfortunately, this still doesn’t tell us much about the impact on the next election. Gallup doesn’t give us any more information about demographics on gender, age, or region, all of which might paint a clearer picture. One indirect indicator that the Economist/YouGov poll had it right on Hobby Lobby traction is that Republican governors consider it a non-issue for the midterms:

Democrats see the Supreme Court decision of limiting birth control coverage in some employee health plans as galvanizing voters for November, but Republican governors say the Hobby Lobby case is barely a blip, let alone a reprise of the “war on women.”

Republicans interviewed at the National Governors Association summer meeting here this weekend described the high court ruling exempting some religious owners of for-profit businesses from the Obamacare contraceptive coverage requirement as a welcome brake on President Barack Obama and his intrusive health law. And they didn’t see it causing problems. …

The governors here say they just haven’t witnessed any of the uproar that accompanied the ruling in Washington.

“It really hasn’t been an issue for us just because it’s a federal decision,” said Wisconsin’s Walker. “Honestly, we haven’t heard much of anything at the state level out on the street from people we bumped into and talked to. I’m not on the court and I’m not in the federal government so I don’t really get involved with it.”

It doesn’t help Democrats that their rhetoric has so far “been untethered from those basic facts” of the Hobby Lobby decision, as Glenn Kessler wrote in his fact check on multiple statements from Democrats. Oddly, even though Kessler repeatedly found that these claims were blatantly false — for instance, Rep. Gwen Moore’s (D-WI) insistence that the court ruled that bosses could “tell their employees that they cannot use birth control” — Kessler didn’t assign anyone any of his Pinocchios. “The Fact Checker generally does not award Pinocchios for “misspeaking” or for statements of opinion,” Kessler wrote, but most of these were made as statements of fact, not opinion.

The Hobby Lobby decision isn’t stoking widespread outrage, even while Democrats attempt widespread demagoguery. If Senate Democrats try repealing part of the RFRA as a way to turn the midterms in their favor, they will almost certainly see the project backfire as Republicans demand to know why they’re attacking religious freedom. Have fun storming that castle, Democrats, especially in this election cycle.

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Just because the (barely) got Hobby Lobby right doesn’t make up for all the wrong the SCOTUS decides. I have zero confidence in that group … but will admit that is more than I have in the other two branches, by far.

If Senate Democrats try repealing part of the RFRA as a way to turn the midterms in their favor, they will almost certainly see the project backfire as Republicans demand to know why they’re attacking religious freedom. Have fun storming that castle, Democrats, especially in this election cycle.

Oddly, even though Kessler repeatedly found that these claims were blatantly false — for instance, Rep. Gwen Moore’s (D-WI) insistence that the court ruled that bosses could “tell their employees that they cannot use birth control” — Kessler didn’t assign anyone any of his Pinocchios. “The Fact Checker generally does not award Pinocchios for “misspeaking” or for statements of opinion,” Kessler wrote, but most of these were made as statements of fact, not opinion.

Is it not clear to everyone yet that Kessler will NEVER be neutral and/or fair? Why do we keep referring to him as a “fact” checker?

The most interesting trendline here might be that of the independents.

Ed, You’re the poll guy and you devour these polls like Michelle Obama at an all-you-can-eat lobster bar but…….

I used to be a Republican. Now I’m an independent. I didn’t leave the party so much as they left me. All I’m saying is that the rise of independents is fueled in part by the GOP being controlled by Boehner, McConnell, and the US Chamber of Commerce. Social values still matter to many Americans even if you can’t see it from a very blue vantage point like Minnesota.

I think that independent is increasingly the docking point for those disaffected with both parties. And for different reasons.

How many of the models relying on a staid two-party system adequately accounts for a rising number of independents who become more critical in the outcome? Independent voters are freaks by many of these models.

It’s worth noting, too, that Obama lost a lot in this last session of the Supreme Court, and the dramatic changes seen here may not all be about Hobby Lobby, either.

Let’s face it: it’s all about Hobby Lobby. Yes, there was a free speech ruling regarding invoking religion in public meetings, and there was the ruling on unions (and there were several other cases decided such as warrantless searches of cell phones). But all of those got peanuts in terms of coverage and none generated the passion that Hobby Lobby did.

When was the last time Democrats ran a major campaign that was not entirely based on widespread demagoguery?

Without widespread demagoguery to appeal to the victim / identity politics, how would they explain their record of ‘results’ in Chicago, Detroit, California, or in DC under the Obama Administration?

Athos on July 14, 2014 at 4:57 PM

As opposed to the nuance of “death panels”, “kenyan marxist muslim”, and “they took our jobs!”

Politicians demagogue, duh. Why? Because it works. Because the mass of americans don’t give a rip and can only be encouraged to actually participate by hitting the outrage button. That you don’t see how the conservative media is easily the biggest nastiest purveyor of fear porn is kind of frightening.

That you don’t see how the conservative media is easily the biggest nastiest purveyor of fear porn is kind of frightening.

Tlaloc on July 14, 2014 at 5:45 PM

Horse Hockey.

Your Cult Leader O’bama is a world-class fear porn merchant, and his Democrat Media is only too happy to parrot what he says.

Remember the sequester? The liberal media helped push O’bama’s meme that it would have major negative impacts, and they even happily went along with O’bama’s Fear Porn that said sequester would threaten the existence of Social Security.

The liberal media also generated plenty of Fear Porn between 2001 and 2009. Bush, for example, was going to put all American Muslims in concentration camps.

This is nothing new, either. The other day Michael Stipe of the band REM said that he fell victim to liberal Fear Porn when Reagan was President. He admitted that he didn’t get tested for AIDS for a full 5 years because he was afraid Reagan would throw him in a concentration camp.

SCOTUS rewriting Obamacare to make it Constitutional was the last time I would give respect to any decision from the black robed coven.
They have used the Constitution as toilet paper.
SCOTUS has become just another political agency of the government.
Time for a change:
Have the entire Senate select 10 worthy candidates….we are told there are many. Selection requires 2/3 vote.
Number the names.
Place their numbers in the Powerball machine and have one selected, randomly.
You now have the new member of the court.
Service term shall be 6 years.
Whaddya think?
III