SDSU head-to-head matchup vs. Air Force

Aztecs:
Running back Adam Muema exploded for 127 rushing yards against Boise State and notched his fifth 100-yard game of the season. Watch for him to light up a questionable Air Force run defense this week. The Falcons are allowing opponents to pop off 226 rushing yards a game, and if they give Muema and Walter Kazee that much latitude, it’ll be lights-out. The Aztecs can throw it too, of course. But expect them to come out and pound the rock. If they can reel off a couple of early touchdowns and get off to a fast start, the Falcons will be in trouble. After all, as he showed last week, Muema can kill a clock about as effectively as if you tossed it out the top floor of the Empire State Building.

Falcons:
Air Force’s offense always presents challenges for opposing defenses because it’s close enough to the triple option that teams aren’t used to seeing it, but enough of a variation from the triple option that these Falcons can chuck the ball around effectively too. That often spells trouble. The Falcons are averaging 33 points and about 337 rush yards a game (No. 3 nationally). Running back Cody Getz – average 118..9 rush yards per game – and quarterback Conner Dietze also have the added bonus of operating behind an impenetrable offensive line. The Falcons’ O-line is the only one in the country that has not given up a sack this year. Part of that is due to the option offense – less passing, lots of handoffs – but hey, Navy is triple option too, and the Middies are 57th nationally in sacks allowed. So there’s that.

Edge:
Aztecs

DEFENSE

Aztecs:
Once again, the defense’s biggest challenge this week will be to stop the run. That bodes well. So far, the Aztecs’ D has been kryptonite to some of the best backs in the country. Nevada’s Stefphon Jefferson, Fresno State’s Robbie Rouse and Boise State’s D.J. Harper didn’t get very far against SDSU’s 27th ranked rush D. Now, Air Force’s Getz gets to try his luck. If he can’t gain traction, the Falcons might have to pass, and to their credit, they are No. 8 nationally in pass efficiency behind QB Dietze. Can they get by SDSU’s improving pass defense that way?

Falcons:
The Falcons’ weakness on defense conveniently corresponds with SDSU’s strength on offense: they can’t stop the run (114th nationally in rush defense) and the Aztecs like to ram the ball down opponents’ throats. If Air Force can’t find a way to contain Muema and Kazee, this game could get out of control pretty quick. It doesn’t help that they’re not particularly solid against the pass either – opponents have averaged 194 passing yards per game. Uh oh.

Edge:
Aztecs

SPECIAL TEAMS

Aztecs:
SDSU’s special teams play was a pleasant surprise against Boise last week. Colin Lockett rattled off a 100-yard kickoff return for a touchdown, and Dwayne Garrett blocked a punt that eventually resulted in an offensive touchdown. However, it wasn’t all great last time out. SDSU allowed one kickoff return for 31 yards, and Chance Marden missed a field goal after converting eight in a row. Still, if the Aztecs can pump out a couple of big special teams plays weekend and minimize mistakes, that will go a long way toward securing win No. 8.

Falcons:
Air Force doesn’t punt a lot – which is noteworthy in itself—but when it does, it’s coolly efficient. The Falcons lead the Mountain West in net punting (40.47 per punt) and punter David Baska has booted five for 50-plus yards this year. But things could get iffy if the Falcons have to trot out the placekicker. Senior Parker Herrington has had a rough year. He’s 3-of-8 on field goals overall, but the saving grace is that he’s made two in a row now – including a 45-yarder against Nevada two weeks ago.

Edge:
Aztecs

COACHING

Aztecs:
First off, the Aztecs are 5-0 against service academies since 2010. Secondly, SDSU coach Rocky Long is on a roll. His fourth down gambles have worked out very well over the last few weeks. They’ve been key in the Aztecs’ close wins against Boise State and Nevada, and he has SDSU playing some of its best football of the season. The players have become carbon copies of their coach. They parrot the same lines about focusing on one game at a time, and the best part of it is that they mean it. The Aztecs have bought into what Long is doing, and as long as they keep their focus, his risky gambits and their high level of execution combine for a surefire recipe for success.

Falcons:
As is generally the norm with the service academies, Air Force is tough, disciplined and well-coached – they average only 3.6 penalties per game. This is all the more impressive when you consider that they’re the second-youngest team in the country. The Falcons had 21 players start a game for the first time in their careers this season. Despite the youth, they managed to fell Nevada, and hold their own against Michigan. That’s a mark of good coaching.

Edge:
Aztecs

INTANGIBLES

Aztecs:
The Aztecs go into this game as the hottest team in the conference, with a five-game win streak that dates back to Oct. 6. Their only defeat at home this season close contest against San Jose State (SDSU lost 38-34). This week, they also have pride on their side. It’s Senior Day and they’ll be honoring 16 seniors. No one wants to lose on Senior Day. Expect the nine seniors in the two-deep to play extra hard, and expect everyone else to triple their efforts to ensure their seniors go out with a win. Oh, and did we mention they’re also playing to cling to first place in conference standings? With all that at stake, it’s highly unlikely that this team will come out flat or in any way hungover from last week’s win in Boise.

Falcons:
The Falcons have plenty to play for as well. At 5-4 overall, they need one more win to become bowl eligible. But they’ve been appallingly streaky all year, losing to teams they should beat (like Army), and coming out fired up against superior opposition. Then there’s the matter of the 41-21 drubbing they suffered at the hands of service academy-rival Army last week. There’s two ways they can react to that: come out fired up and ready to take their anger out on the Aztecs, or slither out flat and listless and sleepwalk their way through a blowout. Guess we’ll see which Air Force team shows up.