Disappointing industrial output data could augur recession - analysts

MTI – Econews

Thursday, October 6, 2011, 13:25

Lower than expected industrial output in August could augur the start of a recession, analysts told MTI on Thursday.

Hungary's unadjusted industrial output climbed 4.4% in August from the same period a year earlier, but workday-adjusted output edged down 0.4%, the Central Statistics Office (KSH) said in the morning. Seasonally- and workday-adjusted output was down 1.3% in a month-on-month comparison.

Gergely Suppan of Takarékbank said the data show GDP could contract quarter-on-quarter as soon as the third quarter. He projected modest growth in the coming months with a pickup in December because of a low base.

Next year, industrial output could get a boost from the start of production at plants German carmakers Daimler and Opel are building in Hungary, he added.

He put full-year industrial output growth at 5.5-6% for 2011 and 6.5% for 2012.

Zoltán Reczey of Buda-Cash Brokerage also said a recession could not be excluded in light of the data. Adjusted year-on-year output fell for the first time since December 2009, he noted.

Central and Eastern Europe is a region with healthy growth and massive potential, UniCredit stated at a workshop hosted at the annual Euromoney CEE Forum in Vienna, adding that it expects more of the same from the regionʼs economic environment.

Output of Hungaryʼs construction sector climbed 27.3% year-on-year in November, according to raw data released by the Central Statistical Office (KSH) on Tuesday.
Output grew in both main groups of construction: in the construction of buildings by 17.8%, and in civil engineering works by 40.2%.

Moodyʼs Investors Service has released a report about the CEE regionʼs economic outlook for the year 2019, saying that the regionʼs growth is strong, but somewhat slowing, while the tightening of global funding conditions may pose challenges, according to a press release sent to the Budapest Business Journal.

The surplus in the external trade in goods amounted to EUR 496 million in November 2018, with exports increasing by 4.7% and imports rising by 7.3% in the month in euro terms, compared to the same month of 2017, shows a first reading of data released by the Central Statistical Office (KSH) on Wednesday.

The volume of industrial output increased by 4% year-on-year in November 2018. Based on working-day adjusted data, production grew by 3.5%, according to freshly released data from the Central Statistical Agency (KSH).

The volume of retail sales grew by 5.3% in November 2018 according to raw data, and by 5.2% when adjusted for calendar effects, compared to November 2017, according to a flash estimate of monthly data published today by the Central Statistical Office (KSH).

Industrial producer prices in Hungary were up 5.1% in November 2018 compared to the same month in 2017, as prices were affected by wage growth, forint exchange rate fluctuation and petroleum market price changes on the world market, according to the Central Statistical Office (KSH).

The deficit of the general government sector in the first three quarters of 2018 was HUF 110 billion, representing 0.4% of GDP. The balance improved by HUF 54.4 bln, or 0.2 of a percentage point as a proportion of GDP, compared to the corresponding period of 2017.

Hungaryʼs rolling average three-month jobless rate reached 3.6% in September-November 2018, edging down from 3.7% in the previous three-month period, and 3.8% in the corresponding period a year earlier, the Central Statistical Office (KSH) said on Wednesday.