Marine Weather and TidesBrownville, NY

Version 3.4

What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:50AM

Sunset 5:43PM

Friday February 22, 2019 7:39 AM EST (12:39 UTC)

Moonrise 9:39PM

Moonset 8:52AM

Illumination 90%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

LOZ045 Expires:201902221615;;329247
FZUS51 KBUF 221105
NSHBUF
Nearshore Marine Forecast
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
605 AM EST Fri Feb 22 2019
For waters within five nautical miles of shore
Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest
1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of
the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
LOZ045-221615-

Synopsis
High pressure will build across the region through tonight providing
dry weather which will last well into Saturday. A strong storm
system will then arrive this weekend, with rain overspreading the
region Saturday night. A powerful cold front will then cross the
region Sunday with more rain and widespread damaging winds.

Near term through tonight
Nighttime microphysics satellite imagery shows an area of
stratus across southern ontario province expanding southward
across lake ontario and into western new york. These will
continue to expand into our region during the morning hours,
with the day starting off with a mix of Sun and clouds. These
clouds will eventually begin to erode and scatter out this
afternoon. Highs today will be in mid to upper 30s in most
areas, except the lower 30s east of lake ontario. With light
winds and some sunshine it will feel warmer compared to
yesterday.

Surface high pressure will be centered across the region this
evening with clearing skies and light winds. This high will slide
east into new england late tonight, but still will provide good
radiational cooling conditions. Because of this, the forecast hedges
colder than consensus guidance, especially east of lake ontario
since it will remain closer to the departing surface high.

Temperatures tonight will fall into the lower 20s at most locations,
and into the teens (and possibly single digits) east of lake
ontario. There also may be some patchy fog due to lingering low
level moisture and the calm winds.

Short term Saturday through Sunday night
A major storm system will impact the region this period... With high
winds, potential for lake shore flooding east of both lakes, and
accumulating lake effect snow to close out the period.

Headline changes... We will upgrade the high wind watch to a warning
for the entire region as confidence remains high for very strong
wind gusts. Model consistency, comparison to previous high wind
events and a climatological favored track for high winds supports
the decision to upgrade. A lake shore flood watch has been expanded
to jefferson and oswego counties where high waves crashing into the
shoreline may cause beach erosion, and if the ice sheet on the
northeast end of the lake becomes dislodged in the high winds... High
waves may push into the bays of jefferson county. Also a northwest
wind Sunday night and Monday may shift the ice sheet southward along
the oswego coastline, possibly creating an ice jam for creeks and
streams that empty into the lake.

Saturday easterly flow will begin to increase through the day as a
surface high pressure exits out to sea off the new england
coastline. Much of the day will be dry, with clouds increasing ahead
of a deepening storm system across the mid mississippi valley. A few
rain showers are possible late in the day across the so. Tier, but
it will be until Saturday night that much of the region receives
rain.

The amplified pattern, with southeasterly flow forcing milder air
northward will spell plain rain for the region Saturday night. Deep
moisture ahead of the mid-mississippi trough will be transported
across the great lakes region Saturday night feeding these areas of
rain. Rain ahead of a warm front will spread across the region
Saturday night, though greater duration and forecasted rainfall will
be to the west and east of our region where isentropic lift will be
greater. Elevated instability of 200 to 400 j kg may bring a few
rumbles of thunder to SW nys. Will add a chance of thunder into the
southern tier, and also southern erie and wyoming county. Overall
rainfall Saturday night will range from a tenth to a third of an
inch on average basin wide.

The push of milder air northward should keep the p-type as all rain
for much of our region. The exception will be the north country
where lingering cold air may allow for a few areas of wet snow to
fall before quickly turning to rain Saturday night.

Under strong warm air advection through the night temperatures will
begin to rise in the evening (and just past midnight east of lake
ontario). By the closure of Saturday night into Sunday morning much
of wny will likely be around 50f.

The 00z models continue to track a deepening, and anomalously deep
low across lake michigan and near the soo Saturday night and Sunday,
with a 65 to 75 knot LLJ passing across the region Sunday and Sunday
night. Both the 00z GFS and ECMWF as well as the canadian model all
deepen this low to around 971 to 972 mb Sunday evening.

This deep low coupled with strong cold air advection (850 hpa
temperatures dropping 12 to 16 degrees celsius through the day),
forcing from a passing isallobaric couplet and passing 1.5 PV tail
(down to near 500 hpa) across the region will transport very strong
winds down to the surface through the day Sunday, beginning in the
late morning hours and continuing through Sunday night. As the 1.5
pv tail crosses the region Sunday afternoon behind a strong cold
front, and potential for 60 knots of wind flow dipping below 1k
feet, wind gusts at the surface could approach 75 mph downwind of
lake erie and across the lake plain. Several past high wind events
have shown up in the cips analogs, including high wind events of feb
10th 2001, feb 1 2002, jan 9 2008. The jan 9th event at the surface
looks similar to this, with a surface low tracking across the soo
that deepens to around 971 mb. One difference is the surface high
building across the plains is stronger for our event Sunday... Which
will bring a tighter pressure gradient supporting confidence that
wind gusts 65 to 75 mph will be possible.

Sunday morning will begin very warm with temperatures in the morning
hours peaking well into the 50s across wny. A few 60 degree readings
are possible in the genesee valley within this anomalous weather
pattern. Temperatures across wny will begin to fall by late morning
as the surface cold front crosses the region. Additional rainfall
Sunday will be on the order of a tenth or two.

As the cold front crosses the region Sunday wind gusts will quickly
strengthen from west to east, with damaging west-southwest gusts
howling across the region. The strongest winds are expected Sunday
afternoon through Sunday night. What will also make this wind event

concerning will be the prolonged period of damaging winds... With
gusts over 60 mph possible for a 12 to 18 hour period. This lengthy
period of winds battering the region could increase the severity of
the wind event. Strong winds will persist into Sunday night, this
more of a west to west-northwest direction as the surface low tracks
across southern quebec.

Winds will eventually begin to decrease Sunday night as the surface
low begins to fill across canada.

After the initial wave of rain crosses the region Sunday, a dry slot
may bring a temporary period of rainfree weather before moisture
wraps back around our region with at first rain showers that will
quickly transition to snow.

Temperatures at 850 hpa will plummet to -15c over the lakes which
will increase the instability and generate lake effect snow. As lake
effect snow parameters become favorable bands of snow will form to
the east and then southeast of the lakes. Ice on lake erie should
limit the snow to just a few inches across ski country. However open
waters of lake ontario and a west to northwest flow over the long
axis of the lake should bring a band of light to moderate snow
inland. East of lake ontario snow accumulations could exceed
advisory range... And will include this in the hwo. Of concern will
be the still strong winds within this lake snow. These winds will
create significant blowing of snow that will greatly reduce
visibilities.

Temperatures Sunday night will drop into the upper teens to mid 20s,
with temperatures 12z Monday morning some 20 to 30f degrees cooler
than where they were 24 hours prior.

Long term Monday through Thursday
Windy conditions will continue into Monday as the powerful storm
system moves into the canadian maritimes. A very tight pressure
gradient will lead to northwest winds gusting initially 45 to 60 mph
early Monday morning down to 20 to 35 mph Monday evening. Pressure
rises will slow down Monday evening and winds will finally settle
down. Cold air advection will also be occurring Monday and Monday
night with 850 mb temperatures falling to around -15 deg c by Monday
evening. Northwest flow across the lakes will result in lake snows
especially east southeast of lake ontario. Additional accumulations
will be minor Monday, with perhaps just another inch or two
southeast of lake ontario.

Mostly zonal flow will persist across much of the north-central
conus mid-week. High pressure will move into the great lakes Monday
night and Tuesday. Models diverge from there with the 12z gfs
developing a weak system that tracks to the south. This may bring
accumulating snow to the area Tuesday night-Wednesday night. On the
contrary, the 12z ECMWF has high pressure across much of the great
lakes through mid-week. Very cold temperatures are also possible
into mid-week if the 12z ECMWF pans out.

Aviation 12z Friday through Tuesday
Satellite imagery shows an area of lake enhanced stratus
spreading southward across lake ontario. This will result in
increasing cloud cover this morning before these clouds
gradually scatter out this afternoon. These clouds will mainly
be in theVFR flight category, but bases may lower into the MVFR
flight category at times this morning. Otherwise high pressure
will build in with fair weather andVFR conditions late
afternoon and this evening. Some patchy radiation fog may
develop tonight, but otherwise expect predominantlyVFR
conditions.

Outlook...

Saturday...VFR.

Saturday night...VFR lowering to MVFR in rain.

Sunday... MVFR or ifr with rain, then snow. Strong winds.

Monday and Tuesday...VFRMVFR with scattered snow showers.

Marine
High pressure will build toward the region today with generally
light winds which will last into Saturday. A powerful storm
system will cut through the central great lakes Sunday and
Sunday night. As this system rapidly deepens it will produce at
least gale force winds on the lakes. This system has the
potential to produce storm force winds, and following
coordination it was determined to issue a storm watch for the
lakes.

Weather Map and Satellite Images

(on/off) &nbspHelpWeather MapGOES Local Image of EDITNOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.Link to LoopOther links:
Northern PacificContential USFull GOES-East

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (7,2,3,4)

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