Close Races to Decide Senate Control

DAVID ESPO

Published 7:00 pm, Friday, October 25, 2002

AP Special Correspondent

WASHINGTON (AP) _ Republicans hold a clear advantage in the battle for control of the House in next week's elections, according to an Associated Press survey. The Senate hinges on close races from New Hampshire to Colorado, and the somber contest to replace the late Paul Wellstone.

At the midpoint of President Bush's term, the survey also points to Democratic gains in gubernatorial races, including Pennsylvania, Illinois and Michigan, industrial states long in Republican hands.

Despite the millions spent on polling and tens of millions on political advertising, "It's literally just about now that the 20 percent to 30 percent of the electorate … are beginning to tune in for the first time," said Bill McInturff, a Republican pollster.

"The people don't move and focus until the last five days," agreed House Democratic leader Dick Gephardt, hoping economic issues will trigger a late surge that delivers congressional control to his party.

Nationwide polls offer contradictory clues to an electorate that will cast ballots in a time of terrorism, economic slowdown and possible war with Iraq.

Growing numbers of Americans say the nation is moving down the wrong track, 51 percent in a recent survey for NPR.

Yet President Bush's approval ratings are in the 60 percent range. He also has embarked on a late-campaign tour designed to seal a historic midterm triumph for his party, possibly even gaining House seats.

House Democrats, eight years out of power, need to gain seven seats to be assured of control. The Senate breakdown is 49 Republicans, 49 Democrats, one independent and one vacancy _ created by Wellstone's death in a small plane crash in Minnesota on Friday.

Republicans account for 27 governors, to 21 for Democrats and two independents.

With less than 10 days remaining in the campaign, as few as two dozen House seats out of 435 appear to be seriously competitive, according to public and private polls and assessments by strategists in the two parties. Democrats would need to win roughly two-thirds of them to gain control, a challenge complicated by a GOP advantage in campaign fund raising.

The list of competitive Senate races is shorter, but long enough to allow a swing of three or four seats in the battle for control.

Just weeks after winning a legal battle to replace Sen. Bob Torricelli with former Sen. Frank Lautenberg on the ballot in New Jersey, Democrats appear likely to hold his seat.

But Democratic Sens. Jean Carnahan in Missouri and Tim Johnson in South Dakota are in difficult campaigns. Republicans were running strongly at Wellstone, too, and his death raised a number of legal and political questions that officials have only begun to sort out.

The most vulnerable GOP-held Senate seats are in Arkansas, where public polls show first-termer Tim Hutchinson trailing; Colorado, where Sen. Wayne Allard is struggling; and New Hampshire, where Rep. John Sununu ousted GOP Sen. Bob Smith in a primary and now is in a close race with Democratic Gov. Jeanne Shaheen.

Democrats still express hope for winning GOP open seats in North Carolina and Texas, where their candidates trail in public polls. Republicans nurse hopes in Georgia.

The GOP also is laboring to hold Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu below 50 percent in Louisiana. That would force a December runoff _ possibly with Senate control riding on the outcome.

In gubernatorial contests, Republicans appear poised to win in Hawaii for the first time since 1962, three years after statehood. GOP candidates are also mounting strong challenges to Democratic incumbents in South Carolina and Alabama.

On the other hand, Democrats are well ahead in three industrial states, and have hopes of capturing the statehouse in Kansas. The president's brother, Jeb Bush, is in a close race for re-election in Florida. Democratic Gov. Gray Davis holds a shaky lead in polls in California.

In a year with 36 gubernatorial races, 34 Senate campaigns and 435 House seats on ballots, no single issue dominates. A recent Wall Street Journal-NBC poll found that 47 percent of those surveyed cited the economy as the most important issue, but 39 percent selected terrorism and Iraq.

Bush receives relatively good, steady marks for his handling of an economy that has recently lost private sector jobs and is growing only sluggishly. Despite strenuous efforts by the Democrats, voters do not yet see them as having a clear alternative.

Opposition to the administration's Iraq policy appears strong among Democratic voters. But nationally, Bush wins majority support for his handling of the issue. In the House races where the battle for control will be settled, few if any Democrats have chosen to disagree with the commander in chief's threat of military action.

"The campaign remains very competitive, and will be decided on an election-by-election basis," said Ken Mehlman, political director in Bush's White House.

The president talks terrorism and the economy by turns in his campaign rounds. "Our economy isn't as good as it should be. It's bumping along," he said in Alabama recently before moving into an appeal for making last year's tax cuts permanent.

The economy is where Democrats want to make their stand.

"We're more than eager to match up our record against the folks who won't take responsibility for two million lost jobs, stagnant growth and trillions of dollars in 401(k) and other retirement savings losses," Democratic chairman Terry McAuliffe recently told reporters.

The party made television commercials to drive home that point.

But in a measure of their financial state, Democrats were able to commit less than $1 million to their effort, only enough to run advertising on cable television for a day or two in the areas where Bush was campaigning.

Overall, Republicans find themselves in a position that seemed highly improbable before the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, altered the political landscape profoundly.

The party in power in the White House has lost seats at every midterm election except three since Abraham Lincoln was president, and last gained Senate seats at a midterm election in 1982.