Could Sandy get a post-season upgrade?

Hurricane Sandy will be analyzed and re-analyzed for months, and perhaps years. It’s possible, for example, that the storm could get an upgrade during the off-season, making it one of only two major hurricanes during 2012.

Sandy made landfall west of Santiago de Cuba on Thursday, Oct. 25 with 105 mph winds, just below Category 3 strength (111 mph to 129 mph). It had a well defined eye. But in their 5 a.m. advisory that day, National Hurricane Center forecasters wrote that “stronger winds may have occurred later when the southeastern portion of the eye wall moved onshore.”

Storms are routinely reviewed during the off-season, and hurricane expert Jeff Masters at Weather Underground believes Sandy is a likely candidate for a closer look. As it stands, the only major hurricane of the year was Hurricane Michael, which reached peak intensity of 115 mph for 12 hours in the Eastern Atlantic.

The National Weather Service in Miami has issued its own Sandy overview, focusing on its impact on South Florida. A few interesting tidbits: Forecasters said they were confident, given the consistency of the computer model tracks, that Sandy would remain over the Bahamas as it tracked north.

However, the European model raised some concern because it showed an “intense rain band hitting the Palm Beach coast.” That never happened because the west side of the storm did not developed as feared when it left the coast of Cuba. Less than 2 inches of rain hit the Palm Beach County coast.

But analysts said tropical storm force winds — at least 39 mph sustained for a minute or more — came right up to the shoreline in Palm Beach, as depicted by the graphic below:

The maximum wind gust from Sandy at Palm Beach International Airport was 52 mph on Friday, Oct. 26, and there was a top 55 mph gust at the beach (Lake Worth Pier). A weather station in Jupiter reported a 58 mph gust. That was the strongest South Florida wind that Sandy produced, matched by a location in Biscayne Bay.

Once Sandy had moved to the north, the problem became huge breaking waves up to 20 feet or higher at Palm Beach County beaches.

“The most significant impacts were experienced in the Manalapan area where beachfront structures were threatened by water intrusion,” the NWS report said. “The Lake Worth Pier also sustained damage from the large waves. In all, there was an estimated $14 million in damage sustained in Palm Beach county from Sandy.”

Town of Palm Beach officials estimated $6 million in damage occurred to town beaches and structures. A request by the state for Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) aid was turned down last week, but the decision is expected to be appealed.

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A trough of low pressure is forecast to move into the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night and draw tropical moisture into South Florida from the Caribbean. On Thursday, the trough is expected to push through South Florida, upping the chances for rain in Palm Beach to 40 percent.

NWS forecasters said there is a chance, as depicted by the GFS model, that the system could trigger some thunderstorms as it works its way through the area. Expect no cooling after the system moves out, however. High temperatures are predicted to stay in the upper 70s, with lows in the upper 60s, through the weekend.

Graphical forecasts are calling for up to an inch of rain through the end of the week in Palm Beach and other parts of coastal South Florida.

About the Author

John Nelander is a freelance writer, book editor and publisher in West Palm Beach. Weather Matters features news and observations about the weather with a focus on what's happening in South Florida. The blog also looks at the latest studies on climate change as well as what's happening in the weather forecasting biz. His website is www.pbeditorialservices.com.