Vancouver real estate prices not the fault of foreign buyers, says new report

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BC introduces 15% tax on foreign investment

Beginning on August 2, the provincial government will collect an additional 15 percent tax on residential real-estate sales where the buyer is a foreign national or a foreign-controlled corporation.

In a press release, Finance Minister Mike de Jong introduced the measure and pointed to new data on Metro Vancouver real estate that found that foreign nationals accounted for 5.1 percent of sales in the region during a three-week period analyzed in June.

“The data we started collecting earlier this summer is showing that foreign nationals invested more than $1 billion into B.C. property between June 10 and July 14, more than 86% of it in the Lower Mainland,” he said quoted there. “While investment from outside Canada is only one factor driving price increases, it represents an additional source of pressure on a market struggling to build enough new homes to keep up. This additional tax on foreign purchases will help manage foreign demand while new homes are built to meet local needs.”

The move was unexpected but no doubt will be popular with residents of the Metro Vancouver region, where the benchmark price of a single-family detached home increased by more than 70 percent over the last three years.

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"The amendments include anti-avoidance rules designed to capture transactions that are structured specifically to avoid the additional tax," de Jong said.

I wonder if foreign investors will keep investing in Vancouver, or will move elsewhere? I think this is a smart move by BC, but I am very curious how the market will react now price wise as I suspect this will remove a huge number of purchasers from the market.

The B.C. government introduced legislation Monday that would add a 15 per cent property transfer tax on foreign nationals buying real estate in Metro Vancouver.The new rules would take effect Aug. 2 and apply to purchases of homes in Metro Vancouver, excluding the treaty lands of the Tsawwassen First Nation.

Provincial Finance Minister Mike de Jong unveiled the tax as part of legislation aimed at addressing low vacancy rates and high real estate prices in southern B.C.

"For example, the additional tax on the purchase of a home selling for $2 million to a foreign national will amount to an additional $300,000," de Jong told members of the legislature.

All B.C. residents currently pay a one per cent tax on the first $200,000 of their purchase, two per cent on the remaining value up to $2 million and three per cent on any portion above that.

"The amendments include anti-avoidance rules designed to capture transactions that are structured specifically to avoid the additional tax," de Jong said.The revenue from the additional tax would be used to fund housing, rental and support programs, the minister said.

De Jong said recent government housing data indicate foreign nationals spent more than $1 billion on B.C. property between June 10 and July 14, with 86 per cent on purchases in the Lower Mainland area.

"Owning a home should be accessible to middle-class families, and those who are in a position to rent should be able to find a suitable home," Premier Christy Clark said in a statement Monday.

“You have to dream big. If we want to be a little city, we dream small. If we want to be a big city, we dream big, and this is a big idea.” - Mayor Stephen Mandel, 02/22/2012

^thinking about it, its basically a ban on foreign purchasers. Transfer taxes apply to the purchaser not the seller, so existing foreign owners are grandfathered, but anyone new coming into metro Vancouver, who isn't a Canadian resident, would face a significant penalty versus investing in Toronto, Seattle or elsewhere.

^thinking about it, its basically a ban on foreign purchasers. Transfer taxes apply to the purchaser not the seller, so existing foreign owners are grandfathered, but anyone new coming into metro Vancouver, who isn't a Canadian resident, would face a significant penalty versus investing in Toronto, Seattle or elsewhere.

Yes and no. You have to punch in the numbers. If we accept the premise that foreigners are buying up Vancouver, then they are buying it up to make a buck, correct? A 15% initial tax on a 2 million dollar home is 300k CDN or 227k USD. If you spread that over a 20 year period, it's only 11.3K USD/year. For an investor with a long-term outlook, it's nothing.

This will mostly penalize actual legitimate immigrants, because they now have to wait however many years before they can purchase a home. In a market like Vancouver, it could mean missing a chance to buy forever if you have to wait 4 years or more. I wonder if ALL non-citizens have to pay this. What about landed immigrants? It would be stupid if they have to pay this.

btw, BC just had a 3/4 of a billion dollar surplus! With this new tax the surplus next year might go over a billion.

btw, BC just had a 3/4 of a billion dollar surplus! With this new tax the surplus next year might go over a billion.

They won't make much money at all from it, no intelligent investor is going to invest in a market where they have to pay 15% more tax than other market entrants, not when you can invest in plenty of other places, like Ontario, or Alberta, and even BC, and be on a level playing field. Who in their right minds would pay a 150,000 tax on a 1,000,000 purchase? You need a 15% appreciation just to break even. Even if you are laundering money there would be no reason to pay that versus investing in another city (like Victoria). I doubt many banks would be willing to finance that equity loss as well.

The rules are a little tough on new immigrants, but I remember I faced similar when first arriving in Canada, so I rented until I had permanent residence. That's a reasonable expectation. Back then it was difficult to get CMHC insurance or a bank mortgage without having a resident SIN card. Even now I don't think it is easy.

btw, BC just had a 3/4 of a billion dollar surplus! With this new tax the surplus next year might go over a billion.

They won't make much money at all from it, no intelligent investor is going to invest in a market where they have to pay 15% more tax than other market entrants, not when you can invest in plenty of other places, like Ontario, or Alberta, and even BC, and be on a level playing field. Who in their right minds would pay a 150,000 tax on a 1,000,000 purchase? You need a 15% appreciation just to break even. Even if you are laundering money there would be no reason to pay that versus investing in another city (like Victoria). I doubt many banks would be willing to finance that equity loss as well.

The rules are a little tough on new immigrants, but I remember I faced similar when first arriving in Canada, so I rented until I had permanent residence. That's a reasonable expectation. Back then it was difficult to get CMHC insurance or a bank mortgage without having a resident SIN card. Even now I don't think it is easy.

Overall I'm 60/40 on the matter (I think there will be an impact, but it won't be huge). You can't invest in plenty of other places. Toronto and Vancouver are the only two places in the country where foreigners want to live in and where investment makes sense (Alberta attracts a lot of intra provincial migrants and a lot of people from India, Pakistan etc... interested in working in the oil sector and the province's cheap cost of living). The 15% tax might tip the balance towards Toronto now. As far as American markets go, certain spots in California will now probably give a better ROI (Canadian dollar is significantly cheaper, so again, you have to punch in the numbers). Don't underestimate the appeal of Vancouver. It's not just about profits. Even if the Cali mansion makes more sense on paper now, Vancouver still wins in terms of its natural beauty and its downtown core. You don't have that in California.

Also this tax doesn't apply to commercial real estate. Only residential. You might see a sudden shift to commercial real estate. There will definitely be an impact, but we have to wait to see how much that impact will be. I don't think it'll be huge.

^I think the prices in Vancouver will slowly start to drop now, almost 10% of the wealthiest purchasers in many neighborhoods, will now go elsewhere (Toronto, Victoria, Kelowna, Seattle, or whatever). There is already talk in Ontario that they are going to need a matching tax to prevent the same speculation boom happening in their market now:

Ontario’s Finance Minister “will be looking very closely” at a move by his B.C. counterpart to tax foreign real estate investors in the Vancouver region, as market watchers predict the push to curb speculation in Vancouver’s housing market will shift more demand to Toronto.

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Prof. Andrew said B.C.’s tax may push international buyers toward Toronto’s more affordable condo market, creating the sort of soaring prices and public outcry seen in Vancouver. “A number of these foreign investors may well look at that situation and say, ‘Forget it, I’m just going to go to Toronto, where there are no restrictions,’” he said.

^I think the prices in Vancouver will slowly start to drop now, almost 10% of the wealthiest purchasers in many neighborhoods, will now go elsewhere (Toronto, Victoria, Kelowna, Seattle, or whatever). There is already talk in Ontario that they are going to need a matching tax to prevent the same speculation boom happening in their market now:

Ontario’s Finance Minister “will be looking very closely” at a move by his B.C. counterpart to tax foreign real estate investors in the Vancouver region, as market watchers predict the push to curb speculation in Vancouver’s housing market will shift more demand to Toronto.

...

Prof. Andrew said B.C.’s tax may push international buyers toward Toronto’s more affordable condo market, creating the sort of soaring prices and public outcry seen in Vancouver. “A number of these foreign investors may well look at that situation and say, ‘Forget it, I’m just going to go to Toronto, where there are no restrictions,’” he said.

Drop as in negative? As in go down? If that's what you mean, will you admit you were wrong when new numbers come out?

And what's the logic behind Seattle? The USD is worth 1.30 Canadian and the rate of return on a Seattle house is much less. A one time 15% tax on a Vancouver house provides a much higher ROI.

I don't think that was the point with Seattle, it was more a "He who likes the pacific northwest usually sticks around the pacific northwest".

Anyhoo, Vancouver's f*cked. It's sickening what has occurred. This 15% tax? Almost 15 years too late.

Kitlope, you need to back up the premise that that foreigners were behind the price increase. The data shows that 5% of real estate last year was purchased by non citizens/permanent residents (10% of total in total transaction value). You're basically saying screw fundamentals. When a 600k condo has the same payments as a 300k condo (because of low interest rates) from a decade ago, when supply is at an all time low, when demand is at an all time high, when unemployment is the lowest in the country etc... prices will keep going up.

Your Trump like adjectives need further explanation as well. Why is it sickening? Why is Vancouver ******? lmao because you can't have the glorious Edmonton lifestyle where you go buy a house out in the boonies and park a jacked up truck in front of it (complete with truck nuts and all the world's chrome mined in the previous 6 months)?

Growth rates are not sustainable. Supply needs to be increased. The only way to do that is to remove height restrictions and view cones (not on the cards). It's now impossible for people my age to own a house in most parts of the city on average incomes. But that's also the case in San Francisco, New York, London etc... A condo in downtown Vancouver or San Francisco is obviously worth more to most people than a house in Edmonton or Winnipeg.

I don't think that was the point with Seattle, it was more a "He who likes the pacific northwest usually sticks around the pacific northwest".

Anyhoo, Vancouver's f*cked. It's sickening what has occurred. This 15% tax? Almost 15 years too late.

Kitlope, you need to back up the premise that that foreigners were behind the price increase. The data shows that 5% of real estate last year was purchased by non citizens/permanent residents (10% of total in total transaction value). You're basically saying screw fundamentals. When a 600k condo has the same payments as a 300k condo (because of low interest rates) from a decade ago, when supply is at an all time low, when demand is at an all time high, when unemployment is the lowest in the country etc... prices will keep going up.

Your Trump like adjectives need further explanation as well. Why is it sickening? Why is Vancouver ******? lmao because you can't have the glorious Edmonton lifestyle where you go buy a house out in the boonies and park a jacked up truck in front of it (complete with truck nuts and all the world's chrome mined in the previous 6 months)?

Growth rates are not sustainable. Supply needs to be increased. The only way to do that is to remove height restrictions and view cones (not on the cards). It's now impossible for people my age to own a house in most parts of the city on average incomes. But that's also the case in San Francisco, New York, London etc... A condo in downtown Vancouver or San Francisco is obviously worth more to most people than a house in Edmonton or Winnipeg.

9 in 10 Vancouverites support foreign home-buyer's tax, poll finds

Originally Posted by Abii

Drop as in negative? As in go down? If that's what you mean, will you admit you were wrong when new numbers come out?.

I think there are going to be some interesting impacts, clearly a lot of people are rushing to register homes right now before the tax takes effect, so there might be some lag. But, using your logic, will you admit that you were wrong when the new numbers come out, say, at this time next year, and Vancouver housing prices haven't continued to increase at 15 to 20%?

As to the exchange rate issue, if anything that's another reason to do this. Most people in Vancouver's wages and salaries haven't gone up by 15 to 20% over the last two years. Also, if our dollar now appreciated back up to par with the USD, would housing then decline by 15 to 20%? I don't think so, but its a variable that isn't needed in a domestic housing market.

PS. I guess 90% of people living in Vancouver are racists / trump supporters?

Vancouverites widely support the new 15 per cent tax on foreign home-buyers in B.C., according to a new poll, but many don't believe it will be effective in making housing more affordable.

The Angus Reid poll found that 90 per cent of Greater Vancouver residents — about nine in 10 — support the new tax, designed to discourage foreign speculators from driving up housing prices in Metro Vancouver.

But 42 per cent believe the tax will be either not very or not at all effective in cooling the market, and 71 per cent believe it will be too easy for buyers to find loopholes in the law. Eighty-two per cent say the government should have done something sooner.

You claimed prices will drop. As in go negative. Below 0%. That's where my will you admit you were wrong when the numbers come out comment came from. You're saying I should admit being wrong when prices don't increase by 20% next year! I never made a comment on prices continuing to increase at the same rate (since the introduction of the 15% tax). I disagreed with your comment about growth going negative. Will it have an impact on the growth in an indirect way? Yes. Will it go below zero? lmao no. That's ridiculous. There's no support for that.

The effect will be indirect in that people that were holding off on selling their homes (like my parents) will now be spooked by this tax. They might start listing their homes (increasing supply) or start offering discounts to get out. These are just speculation. We have to wait. IMO we will continue to see double digit growth for the foreseeable future. Interest rates are low, unemployment rate in Vancouver is low, economy is relatively good, demand is still high, supply is still low...

The data shows that 5% of real estate last year was purchased by non citizens/permanent residents (10% of total in total transaction value). You're basically saying screw fundamentals. When a 600k condo has the same payments as a 300k condo (because of low interest rates) from a decade ago, when supply is at an all time low, when demand is at an all time high, when unemployment is the lowest in the country etc... prices will keep going up.

Your Trump like adjectives need further explanation as well. Why is it sickening? Why is Vancouver ******? lmao because you can't have the glorious Edmonton lifestyle where you go buy a house out in the boonies and park a jacked up truck in front of it (complete with truck nuts and all the world's chrome mined in the previous 6 months)?

Where did this little diatribe come from? Is it typical west coast "my sh1t don't stink" entitlement? It's not hard to figure out that Vancouver is ****** when as a city you have priced out every single average earning Canadian to above average earning Canadian from purchasing a home. That's simply what I meant. Not rocket science. And it's sickening because of that fact. Again, not rocket science. Your attack on Edmonton & Alberta in general wasn't needed and your stereotyping, even if true, again wasn't needed for this conversation. Also, if you knew my posting history, you would be surprised at my thoughts about Dodge pick up/jacked up truck drivers. Usually they're impatient douchebags - but that's for another conversation.

All these articles say foreigners are behind the increase, but don't explain how that is the case when only 5% of homes are being bought by them (10% in terms of transactions). The number of empty dwellings are in line with the rest of the country. Foreign purchases are in line with other major cities. I have no problem accepting the premise that foreigners are having an impact, but say foreign investment was 5% instead of the current 10%, would that suddenly reduce growth by 25-30%? That makes no sense to me. It just doesn't add up in my head. One out of every ten dollars are coming in from non-citizens. If we turn that into 50 cents out of every 10 dollars, is that suddenly going to reduce growth down to 1990's levels?!!!!

You claimed prices will drop. As in go negative. Below 0%. That's where my will you admit you were wrong when the numbers come out comment came from. You're saying I should admit being wrong when prices don't increase by 20% next year! I never made a comment on prices continuing to increase at the same rate (since the introduction of the 15% tax). I disagreed with your comment about growth going negative. Will it have an impact on the growth in an indirect way? Yes. Will it go below zero? lmao no. That's ridiculous. There's no support for that.

The effect will be indirect in that people that were holding off on selling their homes (like my parents) will now be spooked by this tax. They might start listing their homes (increasing supply) or start offering discounts to get out. These are just speculation. We have to wait. IMO we will continue to see double digit growth for the foreseeable future. Interest rates are low, unemployment rate in Vancouver is low, economy is relatively good, demand is still high, supply is still low...

So you are absolutely certain over the next year price's won't drop? I'm not, I think taking 10% of the wealthiest buyers out of a market place will have a dramatic impact, 18% of purchasers in some neighborhoods. Why do you think real estate agents are so upset in Vancouver, if it doesn't make any difference like you claim? Time will tell, lets see, I predicted a slow drop. I might be right (real estate does drop sometimes, like in Calgary right now), I might be wrong, but I do know that a lot of unnecessary speculatory heat has been taken out of the market. I am with the 90% of people in Vancouver who think this tax is a good idea, and the 80% who think it should have been done long ago. That doesn't make me a scapegoater or a racist, it makes me a realist like most people are, the market in Vancouver was out of control, this will help bring back a softer landing, and keep some affordability for people who choose to actually live in Vancouver / Canada, rather than use our real estate as a place to horde wealth. The spiral prices were on was not sustainable, and it was pushing not just into high end homes, but trickling down into townhomes and condos as well.

I'm curious if Vancouver still tries to put in place a vacant property tax, I think it will be incredibly expensive and difficult to administer though, unlike the tax on non-Canadian residents.

I'm curious if Vancouver still tries to put in place a vacant property tax, I think it will be incredibly expensive and difficult to administer though, unlike the tax on non-Canadian residents.

It shouldn't be difficult to administer, and even if it is, it doesn't matter how expensive it is so long as it breaks even. The intent is (ostensibly) to push properties to market, not to generate revenues. Therefore so long as it breaks even and the tax achieves the desired result, it is a success.

You claimed prices will drop. As in go negative. Below 0%. That's where my will you admit you were wrong when the numbers come out comment came from. You're saying I should admit being wrong when prices don't increase by 20% next year! I never made a comment on prices continuing to increase at the same rate (since the introduction of the 15% tax). I disagreed with your comment about growth going negative. Will it have an impact on the growth in an indirect way? Yes. Will it go below zero? lmao no. That's ridiculous. There's no support for that. ...

You still think it's ridiculous? Average prices have dropped, from 1.8m to 1.47m gone down, below zero, by about $350,000, lmao yes. It can and does happen in property markets, they don't always go up forever. The benchmark prices of a regular home are holding, just, but sales have gone down almost 25 percent. So much for the claims of many in this thread that foreign investment wasn't significantly impacting Vancouver housing, it's very obvious now that it was driving a speculatory bubble, especially at the higher end of the market, which the heat has been taken out of thanks to the tax (which is essentially a ban).

With an election less than five months away, Christy Clark’s B.C. Liberal government is into full-on election mode and the countless government spending announcements that come with it. This past Thursday, the government rolled out its newest election season offer: the B.C. Home Owner Mortgage and Equity Partnership Program, carrying a price tag of $703 million over three years. The program’s stated goal is to “ensur[e] the dream of home ownership remains within reach of the middle class” by providing first-time home buyers in the province with 25-year, matching loans worth up to $37,500 for their down payment. No interest would be accrued or payments required over the first five years of the loan.

The response from economists and other housing experts has been nearly unanimous: in the words of Professor Tom Davidoff of UBC’s Sauder School of Business, “it’s terrible policy.” In an overheated housing market with substantial constraints on the supply side like Vancouver or Victoria, this kind of demand shock will simply lead to increased home prices, with the vast majority of benefits accruing to existing homeowners and developers.

“Urban planning expert Andy Yan, director of the City Program at Simon Fraser University, said the real estate money laundering data “begins to explain what is happening in Vancouver.”. “ - source: see article below (Secret police study finds crime networks could have laundered over $1B through Vancouver homes in 2016 )

“The stately $17-million mansion owned by a suspected fentanyl importer is at the end of a gated driveway on one of the priciest streets in Shaughnessy, Vancouver’s most exclusive neighbourhood.

A block away is a $22-million gabled manor that police have linked to a high-stakes gambler and property developer with suspected ties to the Chinese police services.

MORE: Read the full Fentanyl investigation

Both mansions appear on a list of more than $1-billion worth of Vancouver-area property transactions in 2016 that a confidential police intelligence study has linked to Chinese organized crime.

The study of more than 1,200 luxury real estate purchases in B.C.’s Lower Mainland in 2016 found that more than 10 per cent were tied to buyers with criminal records. And 95 per cent of those transactions were believed by police intelligence to be linked to Chinese crime networks.

The study findings, obtained by Global News, are a startling look at what police believe to be the massive money laundering occurring in the Vancouver-area real estate market.”...

They are also an indication of how — according to police intelligence sources — Canada’s narcos are hiding the huge amounts of cash they are amassing from the fentanyl crisis, which resulted in the deaths of thousands of Canadians last year.
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