Jeff Flake

March 06, 2014

Raleigh, N.C. -- PPP's newest Arizona poll finds that John McCain is unpopular with Republicans, Democrats, and independents alike and has now become the least popular Senator in the country. Only 30% of Arizonans approve of the job McCain is doing to 54% who disapprove. There isn't much variability in his numbers by party- he's at 35/55 with Republicans, 29/53 with Democrats, and 25/55 with independents.

McCain trails in hypothetical general election match ups with both 2012 nominee Richard Carmona (41/35) and former Congresswoman Gabby Giffords (42/35). He would lead though in a match up with former Governor Janet Napolitano, 44/36. This has the potential to be an interesting one in 2016.

“The low opinion both Republicans and Democrats have of John McCain now means he could be vulnerable in both the primary and the general election next time around,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “George McGovern lost his Senate seat 8 years after losing his Presidential bid and McCain could suffer a similar fate.”

-PPP's newest Arizona poll finds that John McCain is unpopular with Republicans, Democrats, and independents alike and has now become the least popular Senator in the country. Only 30% of Arizonans approve of the job McCain is doing to 54% who disapprove. There isn't much variability in his numbers by party- he's at 35/55 with Republicans, 29/53 with Democrats, and 25/55 with independents, suggesting he could be vulnerable to challenges in both the primary and general elections the next time he's up.

McCain trails in hypothetical general election match ups with both 2012 nominee Richard Carmona (41/35) and former Congresswoman Gabby Giffords (42/35). He would lead though in a match up with former Governor Janet Napolitano, 44/36. This has the potential to be an interesting one in 2016.

Ted Cruz leads the Republican primary field in the state with 16% to 14% for Rand Paul, 12% for Chris Christie, 11% each for Mike Huckabee and Jeb Bush, 8% each for Paul Ryan and Scott Walker, 4% for Marco Rubio, and 2% for Bobby Jindal. This is the best poll showing we've found for Cruz in a long time- he leads based on his strength with 'very conservative' voters, among whom he gets 22%.

-Almost four years after it passed, we're finding declining support for Senate Bill 1070 in Arizona. In October of 2010 we found voters favored it by a 25 point margin, 60/35. They still support it now, but it's only by an 8 point spread at 44/36. The bill's popularity has declined with Democrats, Republicans, and independents alike.

April 29, 2013

New PPP polls in Alaska, Arizona, Nevada, and Ohio find serious backlash against the 5 Senators who voted against background checks in those states. Each of them has seen their approval numbers decline, and voters say they're less likely to support them the next time they're up for reelection. That's no surprise given that we continue to find overwhelming, bipartisan support for background checks in these states.

Here's the state by state rundown:

-After just 3 months in office Jeff Flake has already become one of the most unpopular Senators in the country. Just 32% of voters approve of him to 51% who disapprove and that -19 net approval rating makes him the most unpopular sitting Senator we've polled on, taking that label from Mitch McConnell.

70% of Arizona voters support background checks to only 26% who are opposed to them. That includes 92/6 favor from Democrats, 71/24 from independents, and 50/44 from Republicans. 52% of voters say they're less likely to support Flake in a future election because of this vote, compared to only 19% who say they're more likely to. Additionally voters say by a 21 point margin, 45/24, that they trust senior colleague John McCain more than Flake when it comes to gun issues.

-When we polled Alaska in February Lisa Murkowski was one of the most popular Senators in the country with a 54% approval rating and only 33% of voters disapproving of her. She's seen a precipitous decline in the wake of her background checks vote though. Her approval is down a net 16 points from that +21 standing to +5 with 46% of voters approving and 41% now disapproving of her. Murkowski has lost most of her appeal to Democrats in the wake of her vote, with her numbers with them going from 59/25 to 44/44. And the vote hasn't increased her credibility with Republican either- she was at 51/38 with them in February and she's at 50/39 now.

Mark Begich is down following his no vote as well. He was at 49/39 in February and now he's at 41/37. His popularity has declined with Democrats (from 76/17 to 59/24) and with independents (from 54/32 to 43/35), and there has been no corresponding improvement with Republicans. He had a 24% approval rating with them two months ago and he has a 24% approval rating with them now.

60% of Alaska voters support background checks to just 35% opposed, including a 62/33 spread with independents. 39% of voters say they're less likely to vote for each of Begich and Murkowski in their next elections based on this vote, while only 22% and 26% say they're more likely to vote for Begich and Murkowski respectively because of this.

November 04, 2012

Raleigh, N.C. –
PPP's final polls in Arizona and Montana find Mitt Romney leading by 7 points
and two key Senate races leaning in opposite directions, with Democrat Jon
Tester leading Republican challenger Denny Rehberg 48-46 in Montana and
Republican Jeff Flake leading Democratic foe Richard Carmona 51-46 for the open
seat in Arizona.

Obama came close to winning Montana in 2008 and Arizona was thought of
earlier this year as a place where he might be able to expand the map. But he's
not popular in either state, sporting a 42/53 approval rating in Arizona and
44/53 one in Montana.

We've released 4 Montana Senate polls since Labor Day and Tester has led by
2 points in every one of them. Voters are closely split on Tester with 47% of
voters approving of him to 46% who disapprove, but that makes him far more
popular than Rehberg who only has a 37% approval with 54% of voters unhappy
with his performance. The only reason this race is even close is the GOP nature
of the state. Tester's ahead 50/37 with independents.

PPP's final polls in Arizona and Montana find Mitt Romney leading by 7 points and two key Senate races leaning in opposite directions, with Democrat Jon Tester leading Republican challenger Denny Rehberg 48-46 in Montana and Republican Jeff Flake leading Democratic foe Richard Carmona 51-46 for the open seat in Arizona.

Obama came close to winning Montana in 2008 and Arizona was thought of earlier this year as a place where he might be able to expand the map. But he's not popular in either state, sporting a 42/53 approval rating in Arizona and 44/53 one in Montana. In Arizona he's up 69/30 with Hispanics, but that's not enough to make up for a 61/39 deficit with white voters. In Montana Obama would have to win independents to make up for the Republican lean of the state, but he's losing 51/43 with them.

We've released 4 Montana Senate polls since Labor Day and Tester has led by 2 points in every one of them. Voters are closely split on Tester with 47% of voters approving of him to 46% who disapprove, but that makes him far more popular than Rehberg who only has a 37% approval with 54% of voters unhappy with his performance. The only reason this race is even close is the GOP nature of the state. Tester's ahead 50/37 with independents.

Just like in the Missouri Senate contest the Libertarian candidate is worth keeping an eye on here. Dan Cox is pulling 4% and the fact that his voters support Romney 56-11 suggests that he's pulling almost of them from Rehberg. Cox's support has already dropped from 7% three weeks ago, and Tester needs for it to not drop much further.

Richard Carmona led our last Arizona Senate poll, in early October, 45-43. What's happened since then is pretty straight forward- the Republican base has unified around Jeff Flake. He's gone from pulling 70% of Republicans on that survey to now 88%. And although Carmona still leads by 5 points with independents, Flake's cut that down from a 15 point lead a month ago.

Attacks on Carmona have taken a toll- his net favorability has dropped 11 points from +8 at 35/27 to -3 at 40/43. He leads 70/26 with Hispanics but that's not enough to make up for his 59/39 deficit with white voters.

October 03, 2012

Raleigh, N.C.-- PPP's newest poll of the Arizona Senate
race finds Democrat Richard Carmona leading Republican foe Jeff Flake 45-43.
That represents a small shift in Carmona's direction since our last poll of the
state three weeks ago, which had found Flake ahead by just a 44-43 margin.

There's two things you have to do to win as a Democrat in a pretty
Republican leaning state like Arizona: win independents and a get a healthy
amount of crossover support from GOP voters. Right now Carmona's doing both of
those things. He has a 52/37 advantage over Flake with independents. And he's
winning over 14% of Republicans while losing just 7% of Democrats. Carmona's
net favorability is a +8 spread (35/27), while Flake's is -1 at 40/41.

PPP's newest poll of the Arizona Senate race finds Democrat Richard Carmona leading Republican foe Jeff Flake 45-43. That represents a small shift in Carmona's direction since our last poll of the state three weeks ago, which had found Flake ahead by just a 44-43 margin.

There's two things you have to do to win as a Democrat in a pretty Republican leaning state like Arizona: win independents and a get a healthy amount of crossover support from GOP voters. Right now Carmona's doing both of those things. He has a 52/37 advantage over Flake with independents. And he's winning over 14% of Republicans while losing just 7% of Democrats. Carmona's net favorability is a +8 spread (35/27), while Flake's is -1 at 40/41.

There are still reasons to think this race could shift back in Flake's favor. The 12% of voters who are undecided prefer Mitt Romney over Barack Obama for President by a 58/37 margin, so there's reason to think they might end up breaking toward Flake in the end. Also Arizona voters would generally prefer that Republicans be in control of the Senate rather than the Democrats by a 50/40 spread. That Carmona leads anyway is a function of him being superior to Flake as a candidate, but that still leaves open the possibility that if Republicans can effectively nationalize the election Flake's standing will improve.

One thing there's zero doubt about: who would have thought two months ago Democratic prospects in the Arizona Senate race would be better than Republican ones in the Missouri contest?

Arizona may go Democratic in the Presidential race sometime but it doesn't appear likely to be this year. We find Mitt Romney leading Barack Obama 53-44 in the state. This is a rare state where a majority of voters actually see Romney favorably. 54% have a positive opinion of him to 42% with a negative one. And Obama's quite unpopular with just 40% of voters approving of him to 57% who disapprove.

May 22, 2012

Raleigh, N.C. – Jeff Flake looks like the overwhelming favorite to take the Republican nomination for Jon Kyl’s Arizona Senate seat, and he continues to hold a double-digit advantage over Democratic pick Richard Carmona.

In the primary, Flake leads conservative challenger Wil Cardon by a 42-20 margin, with three others combining for 6%, and a third undecided with almost four months to go. That is still a daunting gap to close for the largely self-funded Cardon, but he has managed to make up considerable ground since PPP last polled the race in February. Then, Flake had a 56-7 lead. But also as then, Flake is still stronger with the most conservative voters than he is with the center-right or moderates, potentially stymying the reason for Cardon’s candidacy.

In the general, Flake leads Carmona 48-35, and Cardon has a much smaller 40-37 edge over the Democrat. Three months ago, those match-ups were a very similar 46-35 and 37-33, respectively.

Republican Senate primaries not going the way they're expected to has become the new norm over the last two election cycles, and there are indications Arizona could be the next state with some upset potential. PPP's newest poll finds that Wil Cardon has cut 27 points off of Jeff Flake's lead over the last three months. Flake still has a solid advantage of 22 points, 42-20, but it's a far cry from the 49 point lead he had at 56-7 when PPP surveyed the state in February.

Cardon's early advertising appears to be having an impact. His name recognition has nearly doubled from 17% to 35% and the numbers suggest that as he continues to become better known he may pull even closer to Flake- among voters who have an opinion about Cardon, whether it's a positive or negative one, he trails only 45-35.

What's interesting about Cardon's improved competitiveness is that it doesn't seem to be driven by ideology. Flake is actually beating him by a wider margin with voters describing themselves as 'very conservative'- 51-21- than he is overall. The decrease in support may be more an anti-politician thing than a 'he's not conservative enough' one.

The primary may be getting closer but Flake is still clearly the stronger Republican candidate for the general. He leads Richard Carmona 48-35, while Cardon has only a 40-37 advantage on the likely Democratic nominee. Things have changed little for the general since PPP's February poll. At that time Flake had a 46-35 advantage against Carmona and Cardon was up 37-33.

PPP POLLS BY YEAR: 2006-2015

We came to PPP after a public poll in the San Jose Mayoral race showed our opponent ahead by 8 points. They found our candidate (Sam Liccardo) ahead by 3 points and that allowed us to be able to push back with the press against the perception that our opponent was now a strong favorite in the race. Sam ended up winning by 2 points and is now the next Mayor of San Jose. PPP worked very fast and had a very accurate read on the electorate when we needed them–Eric Jaye, Storefront Political Media.

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