Navy living out its 'heyday,' but rough seas ahead

With several serious budget puzzles on the table and no immediate solution at
hand, there are a lot of gloomy faces in the Pentagon at the moment. Robert Work,
the undersecretary of the Navy, is not one of them — he thinks the Navy's
better off than at any point since World War II.

Work often makes the case that, yes, today's Navy is smaller than it was a few
decades ago when counted by its numbers of ships and sailors, but it's also vastly
more capable. He made that argument in forceful fashion Wednesday to an audience
at the Surface Navy Association's annual
symposium in Arlington, Va.

"Yes, things might get worse. In fact, they probably will get worse. But this is
the heyday of the U.S. Navy," he said. "And, if you're not excited, you ain't breathing."

In the 1980s, the Pentagon wanted to build a fleet of ships numbering 600 in size.
It never got there. By Work's reckoning, the size of the surface fleet topped out
in 1989. DoD's 2014 budget, he said, will call for a fleet of about 300.

But Work unleashed a barrage of figures over the course of about 30 minutes,
making the case that it's time to stop worrying about sheer numbers. He said it's
the characteristics of the ships that matter, not just how many there are.

For instance, he said, the Navy has focused its surface fleet dollars on building
high-end cruisers and destroyers, and across the fleet, ships are more
standardized than ever before, leading to lots of efficiencies in resourcing and
training. They're also linked together in cyberspace in a way that no potential
adversary's fleet can match.

"People say we're having a lot of problems. But they forget that back then, you
had to worry about steam power plants, you had to worry about all different types
of maintenance paths. I cannot imagine an officer saying they would rather fight
in the 1989 surface fleet over the fleet we have now, given the capabilities we
have," he said. "Yes, we are down by a total of about 28 ships, which buys you
about seven ships present all the time. We have fewer ships, but we're building
up."

"They'll wake up crying every two hours"

Even while cheerleading the Navy's current capabilities, Work freely acknowledged
the future is likely to be less rosy, with Congress and the President facing March
deadlines to come up with an alternative to sequestration and to deal with an
expiring continuing resolution.

With so many moving parts to the various budget deadlines that will come together
in March, it's foolish to make predictions about what the political process will
yield, Work said, but he did so anyway.

His guess is that DoD will remain under a continuing resolution for the rest of
the year, but that there will be a deal to avert the automatic budget cuts.

"I can't imagine that Congress will let [sequestration] happen," he said to the audience in attendance. "It could. But we are planning as if sequestration occurs and a year-long continuing resolution occurs. And if that happens, ladies and gentlemen, the world as we know it will end. There's just no way that you'll be able to keep the Navy whole or the Marine Corps whole if that happens. No way. So if anybody tells you just take the shave, we're bloated, blah, blah, blah. Tell them to come sit in my shoes for maybe half an hour. They'll sleep like a baby. They'll wake up crying every two hours too."

The Pentagon already has directed the Navy to make plans to cancel all ship
maintenance availabilities in the second half of the fiscal year in case the
impact of the two pending budget emergencies coincide. If sequestration happens,
procurement budgets would be immediately reduced by roughly 9 percent as with all
other accounts in the DoD budget. The Navy believes it would have to cancel hard-fought, multi-year agreements for shipbuilding, since it would no longer have sufficient funds to pay suppliers under the original terms of the competition.

But like the other military services, the Navy's also worried about the readiness
impacts of a sudden funding cut in the middle of the fiscal year. Work said the
Navy's people are stretched thin as it is.

"Operational tempo right now is killing the Navy," he said. "We do not have enough
time to do the maintenance we need to do, we do not have enough time to train. We
need to exercise and test, we just don't have the time to do so. There's a very
major push to keep more carriers out all of the time, and that kind of sucks
[operations and maintenance funding] out that way. And you cannot scrimp on
maintenance. So what's the right mix between manning, operations and training? It
is tough."