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Against The Spread Pool: Week 16 - Footballguys

Footballguys.com Staff Pick NFL Games Against the Las Vegas Point Spread

by Jeff Pasquino, December 20Photo: Daniel Powers, US Presswire

Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two. The Footballguys.com Staff Against the Spread Pool Challenge. Multiple staff members (18) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.

Please note, that this contest should NOT be viewed as direct sports wagering advice, especially later in the season. Since the staff is trying to beat one another, picks may be made to go against the grain in an attempt to try and catch up in the standings. This example of game theory is more in tune towards playing a contest such as this - so again, do not use these picks as direct advice towards which games to pick each and every week. Rather, use these picks to see the top choices each week, especially by the staff members towards the top of the standings.

LAST WEEK'S RESULTS

Here are the results from last week:

Road Team:

LAC

HOU

CLE

WAS

OAK

ARI

TEN

MIA

DAL

GB

TB

DET

SEA

NE

PHI

NO

Home Team:

KC

NYJ

DEN

JAC

CIN

ATL

NYG

MIN

IND

CHI

BAL

BUF

SF

PIT

LAR

CAR

Favorite:

KC

HOU

DEN

JAC

CIN

ATL

NYG

MIN

IND

CHI

BAL

BUF

SEA

NE

LAR

NO

Point Spread:

-3.5

-6.5

-3.5

-7.5

-3.5

-8.5

-2.5

-8.5

-3.5

-5.5

-8.5

-2.5

-5.5

-2.5

-9.5

-6.5

Staffer

The Picks

MNF

LW

Total

Devin Knotts

LAC

NYJ

CLE

WAS

OAK

ARI

TEN

MIN

IND

GB

TB

DET

SF

PIT

PHI

CAR

46

12

114

Bear Heiser

LAC

HOU

CLE

WAS

OAK

ATL

NYG

MIN

IND

CHI

TB

BUF

SEA

PIT

LAR

CAR

56

11

112

Phil Alexander

LAC

NYJ

CLE

WAS

OAK

ARI

TEN

MIA

IND

CHI

TB

DET

SF

NE

LAR

NO

50

9

119

Jeff Pasquino

LAC

HOU

DEN

JAC

CIN

ATL

TEN

MIN

IND

CHI

BAL

BUF

SEA

NE

LAR

NO

51

8

112

Aaron Rudnicki

LAC

HOU

CLE

WAS

OAK

ARI

TEN

MIA

DAL

GB

TB

BUF

SEA

NE

PHI

CAR

44

8

117

Andy Hicks

LAC

HOU

CLE

JAC

OAK

ARI

NYG

MIA

DAL

CHI

TB

BUF

SEA

PIT

PHI

CAR

47

8

112

Danny Tuccitto

KC

NYJ

DEN

JAC

CIN

ARI

TEN

MIA

DAL

CHI

TB

DET

SF

PIT

LAR

CAR

49

8

112

James Brimacombe

LAC

HOU

CLE

JAC

CIN

ATL

TEN

MIA

DAL

GB

BAL

BUF

SEA

PIT

PHI

NO

50

8

115

William Grant

KC

HOU

CLE

JAC

OAK

ATL

TEN

MIA

DAL

CHI

TB

DET

SEA

PIT

LAR

NO

48

8

108

Keith Roberts

KC

HOU

CLE

JAC

OAK

ATL

TEN

MIA

DAL

CHI

TB

BUF

SEA

NE

LAR

CAR

49

7

109

Mark Wimer

LAC

HOU

DEN

JAC

OAK

ATL

TEN

MIA

IND

CHI

BAL

BUF

SEA

PIT

LAR

NO

70

7

106

Sean Settle

KC

HOU

DEN

WAS

CIN

ATL

NYG

MIN

DAL

CHI

BAL

BUF

SEA

NE

PHI

NO

48

7

108

Andrew Garda

KC

HOU

CLE

WAS

CIN

ATL

NYG

MIA

DAL

CHI

BAL

BUF

SEA

NE

LAR

NO

65

6

100

Jeff Haseley

KC

NYJ

DEN

WAS

CIN

ATL

NYG

MIN

DAL

CHI

TB

BUF

SEA

NE

LAR

NO

53

6

120

Justin Howe

KC

HOU

CLE

JAC

OAK

ATL

NYG

MIN

DAL

CHI

TB

BUF

SEA

NE

LAR

NO

54

6

112

Alessandro Miglio

KC

NYJ

DEN

JAC

CIN

ARI

NYG

MIA

DAL

GB

TB

BUF

SEA

PIT

PHI

CAR

52

5

116

Dave Larkin

KC

NYJ

CLE

JAC

OAK

ARI

TEN

MIA

IND

GB

TB

BUF

SEA

NE

LAR

CAR

51

5

113

Matt Bitonti

KC

HOU

CLE

JAC

CIN

ARI

NYG

MIA

DAL

CHI

BAL

BUF

SEA

NE

LAR

NO

53

4

102

Vegas Winners - Over 52.4% Hit RateOver 50% Hit Rate

NFL Week 15 was tough on the staff overall, but Devin Knotts had a great week with a 12-4 finish. Bear Heiser was just one game back of Devin at 11-5. Only one other staffer (Phil Alexander, 9-7) managed to record a winning week. Seattle (15) and Buffalo (14) were the most common picks - and both were incorrect. Chicago (13) was right, but the staff split the six teams chosen 12 times, so that was a washout. The Jaguars (11) also cost the staff, so the Top 10 picks went 4-6 for the group as a whole with the staff landing at 133-155 for the week. That losing record added to the less than stellar group record of 2,007-2,233 (47.3%). Odds are slim for the staff to even reach 50% for this season, but everyone is still trying quite hard to get to at least that record on an individual basis, if not higher. Seven of the staff now have winning (>50%) records, achieving at least 103 wins through 224 games. Only Jeff Haseley (120) and Phil Alexander (119) have records above the Las Vegas winning percentage of 52.4% for the season. With just two weeks left, these two staffers have the best shot at the overall title, but there are plenty of others still within striking distance if someone has a fantastic week.

THIS WEEK'S PICKS

Here are the picks for this week:

Road Team:

WAS

BAL

JAC

NYG

ATL

BUF

HOU

GB

CIN

TB

MIN

CHI

LAR

PIT

KC

DEN

Home Team:

TEN

LAC

MIA

IND

CAR

NE

PHI

NYJ

CLE

DAL

DET

SF

ARI

NO

SEA

OAK

Favorite:

TEN

LAC

MIA

IND

CAR

NE

PHI

NYJ

CLE

DAL

MIN

CHI

LAR

NO

KC

DEN

Point Spread:

-10.5

-4.5

-4.5

-9.5

-3.5

-12.5

-0.5

-1.5

-7.5

-7.5

-5.5

-3.5

-14.5

-6.5

-2.5

-2.5

Staffer

The Picks

MNF

Total

Jeff Pasquino

TEN

BAL

MIA

IND

ATL

NE

HOU

GB

CLE

DAL

MIN

CHI

LAR

NO

SEA

DEN

47

112

Aaron Rudnicki

WAS

BAL

JAC

IND

ATL

NE

HOU

GB

CIN

TB

MIN

CHI

ARI

NO

SEA

DEN

40

117

Alessandro Miglio

WAS

BAL

JAC

NYG

CAR

BUF

PHI

NYJ

CIN

TB

MIN

CHI

ARI

PIT

SEA

OAK

46

116

Andrew Garda

WAS

LAC

MIA

IND

ATL

NE

HOU

GB

CLE

DAL

MIN

CHI

ARI

NO

KC

DEN

40

100

Andy Hicks

TEN

BAL

JAC

IND

ATL

BUF

PHI

NYJ

CLE

DAL

MIN

CHI

LAR

PIT

SEA

DEN

35

112

Bear Heiser

TEN

LAC

MIA

IND

ATL

BUF

HOU

NYJ

CLE

TB

MIN

CHI

LAR

PIT

KC

OAK

44

112

Danny Tuccitto

TEN

BAL

MIA

IND

ATL

BUF

PHI

GB

CLE

TB

DET

CHI

ARI

NO

SEA

DEN

49

112

Dave Larkin

TEN

BAL

MIA

IND

ATL

BUF

PHI

GB

CLE

DAL

DET

CHI

LAR

NO

KC

DEN

42

113

Devin Knotts

WAS

BAL

MIA

NYG

ATL

BUF

PHI

GB

CLE

DAL

MIN

CHI

ARI

PIT

KC

OAK

46

114

James Brimacombe

WAS

BAL

JAC

IND

ATL

NE

PHI

GB

CLE

TB

DET

CHI

LAR

PIT

KC

DEN

37

115

Jeff Haseley

WAS

LAC

MIA

IND

ATL

BUF

PHI

GB

CIN

DAL

DET

CHI

ARI

PIT

KC

DEN

43

120

Justin Howe

WAS

LAC

MIA

IND

CAR

BUF

HOU

GB

CIN

DAL

DET

CHI

ARI

PIT

KC

OAK

44

112

Keith Roberts

WAS

LAC

MIA

NYG

CAR

BUF

HOU

GB

CIN

DAL

MIN

CHI

LAR

PIT

KC

OAK

44

109

Mark Wimer

TEN

LAC

MIA

IND

ATL

BUF

HOU

NYJ

CLE

DAL

MIN

CHI

LAR

PIT

KC

DEN

45

106

Matt Bitonti

WAS

LAC

MIA

NYG

ATL

BUF

PHI

GB

CLE

DAL

DET

SF

ARI

PIT

KC

DEN

58

102

Phil Alexander

TEN

BAL

MIA

NYG

ATL

NE

PHI

NYJ

CIN

TB

DET

SF

ARI

PIT

KC

DEN

43

119

Sean Settle

WAS

BAL

MIA

NYG

CAR

NE

PHI

GB

CIN

TB

MIN

CHI

ARI

PIT

KC

DEN

42

108

William Grant

WAS

LAC

JAC

IND

ATL

NE

HOU

GB

CLE

DAL

MIN

CHI

LAR

NO

SEA

DEN

43

108

Vegas Winners - Over 52.4% Hit RateOver 50% Hit Rate

CONSENSUS WINNERS

Week 16 selections are in, and only one team is in the clear majority. Chicago (at San Francisco) received 16 of 18 votes as the Bears look to secure the #3 seed with a road victory in California. Atlanta (14) comes in next as the Falcons are on the road in Carolina, but with the big letdown for the Panthers after the loss to the Saints and news that Cam Newton is done for the year, it is clear why most everyone favors the Falcons getting points. Three teams (Miami, Denver and the Jets) received 13 votes while three more (Indianapolis, Pittsburgh and Kansas City) received 12 this week. Five teams garnered 11 picks, with Washington, Buffalo and Minnesota all on the road getting favoritism by the staff. Three games are relatively close with Baltimore, Philadelphia and the Cardinals receiving 10 votes for Week 16. In all, seven underdogs were majority picks (led by Atlanta) and 10 road teams were favored by the staff. If things break right, it could be a strong week - or a lump of coal in the stocking. Check back next week for our final week of the regular season!

ODDS AND ENDS

There are just two weeks left in the regular season, and the next set of picks are due by Wednesday night (Tuesday this week!). Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.

A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 53% gets you into the profitable zone (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding. That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder than it might seem.