A less government conservative Republican from Livingston County, MI
Opinions on this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of the Livingston County Republican Party.
Chairman of LCRP since January 2013

There is little minor change from the old first district in terms of partisanship. The old district had an approximate 6278 Obama vote spread. This one has an approximate 4706 Obama vote spread. The new district has a 38761 vote spread. The old district had a 25677 Bush spread, 3700 Posthumus vote spread, and 27000 Granholm spread. Given the history of the volatile politics and heavy number of independents Up North, this is still a swing district. It's conservative, but not republican. Bart Stupak's won here for years. I think he might have won re-election if he ran, too.

The changes are the additions of Grand Traverse, Kalkaska, Leelanau, Benzie, Manistee, and part of Mason Counties. Grand Traverse and Kalkaska lean GOP. Leelanau and Mason County usually lean slightly GOP, but voted for Obama and Dan Scripps. Manistee County is a swing county. The district also loses Iosco, Arenac, Gladwin, Ogemaw, and its portion of Bay County. All of those areas are swing areas with various leanings except Bay County, which is democrat leaning in even the rural areas.

Dan Benishek won big in 2010. He beat the strongest democrat running by 25000 vote (21,000 in the current district). Part of that is due to the revolt against the democrats, Obamacare, Granholm, and spending. How will Obama affect things in 2012? He did very well on the sunset coast, which has a Chicago influence. I think Benishek's strongest attribute is his geography. This district votes for yoopers, even if "trolls" are now the majority. Yoopers often vote for yoopers over trolls. Trolls vote for either yoopers or trolls.

I can never call a North Michigan seat safe. I will say it leans GOP for now, depending on who runs for it. Sheltrown doesn't live in the district anymore. Barcia is further away from the district. McDowell, Nerat, Neumann, and Lahti lost their races. There's a couple of strong names to watch out for still. Rich Brown and Pat Gagliardi are the two that comes to mind. The bench is weaker for the dems than in the past, but it's still fairly deep.

Here's the two party (no 3rd party votes) results here for Obama, Bush 04, and Dan Benishek (from the portion in the district) in 2010.

2008

McCain

Obama

Total

Diff

GOP

DEM

Diff

Alcona

3404

2896

6300

508

54.03%

45.97%

8.06%

Alger

2188

2472

4660

-284

46.95%

53.05%

-6.09%

Alpena

7125

7705

14830

-580

48.04%

51.96%

-3.91%

Antrim

7506

6079

13585

1427

55.25%

44.75%

10.50%

Baraga

1846

1725

3571

121

51.69%

48.31%

3.39%

Benzie

4687

5451

10138

-764

46.23%

53.77%

-7.54%

Charlevoix

7306

6817

14123

489

51.73%

48.27%

3.46%

Cheboygan

6920

6720

13640

200

50.73%

49.27%

1.47%

Chippewa

8267

8184

16451

83

50.25%

49.75%

0.50%

Crawford

3561

3441

7002

120

50.86%

49.14%

1.71%

Delta

8763

9974

18737

-1211

46.77%

53.23%

-6.46%

Dickinson

7049

5995

13044

1054

54.04%

45.96%

8.08%

Emmet

9314

8515

17829

799

52.24%

47.76%

4.48%

Gogebic

3330

4757

8087

-1427

41.18%

58.82%

-17.65%

Grand Traverse

24716

23258

47974

1458

51.52%

48.48%

3.04%

Houghton

8101

7476

15577

625

52.01%

47.99%

4.01%

Iron

2947

3080

6027

-133

48.90%

51.10%

-2.21%

Kalkaska

4527

3780

8307

747

54.50%

45.50%

8.99%

Keeweenaw

756

610

1366

146

55.34%

44.66%

10.69%

Leelanau

6938

7355

14293

-417

48.54%

51.46%

-2.92%

Luce

1490

1191

2681

299

55.58%

44.42%

11.15%

Mackinac

3268

3027

6295

241

51.91%

48.09%

3.83%

Manistee

5510

7235

12745

-1725

43.23%

56.77%

-13.53%

Marquette

12906

19635

32541

-6729

39.66%

60.34%

-20.68%

Menominee

4855

5981

10836

-1126

44.80%

55.20%

-10.39%

Montmorency

2841

2403

5244

438

54.18%

45.82%

8.35%

Ontonagon

1823

1966

3789

-143

48.11%

51.89%

-3.77%

Oscoda

2320

1887

4207

433

55.15%

44.85%

10.29%

Otsego

6752

5634

12386

1118

54.51%

45.49%

9.03%

Presque Isle

3606

3722

7328

-116

49.21%

50.79%

-1.58%

Schoolcraft

2058

2184

4242

-126

48.51%

51.49%

-2.97%

Mason County:

0

0

#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!

Freesoil Twp

168

287

455

-119

36.92%

63.08%

-26.15%

Grant Twp

199

295

494

-96

40.28%

59.72%

-19.43%

Hamlin Twp (part)

1058

1008

2066

50

51.21%

48.79%

2.42%

Meade Twp

42

41

83

1

50.60%

49.40%

1.20%

Sheridan Twp

197

302

499

-105

39.48%

60.52%

-21.04%

Sherman Twp

276

297

573

-21

48.17%

51.83%

-3.66%

Victory Twp

386

327

713

59

54.14%

45.86%

8.27%

Total

179006

183712

362718

-4706

49.35%

50.65%

-1.30%

2004

Bush

Kerry

Total

Diff

GOP

DEM

Diff

Alcona

3592

2871

6463

721

55.58%

44.42%

11.16%

Alger

2318

2395

4713

-77

49.18%

50.82%

-1.63%

Alpena

7665

7407

15072

258

50.86%

49.14%

1.71%

Antrim

8379

5072

13451

3307

62.29%

37.71%

24.59%

Baraga

1977

1660

3637

317

54.36%

45.64%

8.72%

Benzie

5284

4383

9667

901

54.66%

45.34%

9.32%

Charlevoix

8214

5729

13943

2485

58.91%

41.09%

17.82%

Cheboygan

7798

5941

13739

1857

56.76%

43.24%

13.52%

Chippewa

9122

7203

16325

1919

55.88%

44.12%

11.75%

Crawford

4017

3126

7143

891

56.24%

43.76%

12.47%

Delta

9630

9381

19011

249

50.65%

49.35%

1.31%

Dickinson

7734

5650

13384

2084

57.79%

42.21%

15.57%

Emmet

10332

6846

17178

3486

60.15%

39.85%

20.29%

Gogebic

3935

4421

8356

-486

47.09%

52.91%

-5.82%

Grand Traverse

27446

18256

45702

9190

60.05%

39.95%

20.11%

Houghton

8889

6731

15620

2158

56.91%

43.09%

13.82%

Iron

3224

3215

6439

9

50.07%

49.93%

0.14%

Kalkaska

5084

3189

8273

1895

61.45%

38.55%

22.91%

Keeweenaw

781

630

1411

151

55.35%

44.65%

10.70%

Leelanau

7733

6048

13781

1685

56.11%

43.89%

12.23%

Luce

1749

1049

2798

700

62.51%

37.49%

25.02%

Mackinac

3706

2819

6525

887

56.80%

43.20%

13.59%

Manistee

6295

6272

12567

23

50.09%

49.91%

0.18%

Marquette

14690

17412

32102

-2722

45.76%

54.24%

-8.48%

Menominee

5942

5326

11268

616

52.73%

47.27%

5.47%

Montmorency

3300

2196

5496

1104

60.04%

39.96%

20.09%

Ontonagon

2262

1863

4125

399

54.84%

45.16%

9.67%

Oscoda

2570

1792

4362

778

58.92%

41.08%

17.84%

Otsego

7470

4674

12144

2796

61.51%

38.49%

23.02%

Presque Isle

3982

3432

7414

550

53.71%

46.29%

7.42%

Schoolcraft

2267

2137

4404

130

51.48%

48.52%

2.95%

Mason County:

0

0

#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!

Freesoil Twp

210

274

484

-64

43.39%

56.61%

-13.22%

Grant Twp

203

245

448

-42

45.31%

54.69%

-9.38%

Hamlin Twp (part)

1186

799

1985

387

59.75%

40.25%

19.50%

Meade Twp

45

37

82

8

54.88%

45.12%

9.76%

Sheridan Twp

234

241

475

-7

49.26%

50.74%

-1.47%

Sherman Twp

324

240

564

84

57.45%

42.55%

14.89%

Victory Twp

405

271

676

134

59.91%

40.09%

19.82%

Total

199994

161233

361227

38761

55.37%

44.63%

10.73%

2010

Benishek

McDowell

Total

Diff

GOP

DEM

Diff

Alcona

2603

1433

4036

1170

64.49%

35.51%

28.99%

Alger

1749

1761

3510

-12

49.83%

50.17%

-0.34%

Alpena

5569

3794

9363

1775

59.48%

40.52%

18.96%

Antrim

6041

3491

9532

2550

63.38%

36.62%

26.75%

Baraga

1382

1124

2506

258

55.15%

44.85%

10.30%

Benzie

0

0

#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!

Charlevoix

5752

3767

9519

1985

60.43%

39.57%

20.85%

Cheboygan

5502

3905

9407

1597

58.49%

41.51%

16.98%

Chippewa

5477

5775

11252

-298

48.68%

51.32%

-2.65%

Crawford

2547

1805

4352

742

58.52%

41.48%

17.05%

Delta

6779

5730

12509

1049

54.19%

45.81%

8.39%

Dickinson

5577

3421

8998

2156

61.98%

38.02%

23.96%

Emmet

7397

5040

12437

2357

59.48%

40.52%

18.95%

Gogebic

2313

2759

5072

-446

45.60%

54.40%

-8.79%

Grand Traverse

0

0

#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!

Houghton

6628

4926

11554

1702

57.37%

42.63%

14.73%

Iron

2432

1894

4326

538

56.22%

43.78%

12.44%

Kalkaska

0

0

#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!

Keeweenaw

641

412

1053

229

60.87%

39.13%

21.75%

Leelanau

0

0

#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!

Luce

1017

808

1825

209

55.73%

44.27%

11.45%

Mackinac

2351

2200

4551

151

51.66%

48.34%

3.32%

Manistee

0

0

#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!

Marquette

9301

11181

20482

-1880

45.41%

54.59%

-9.18%

Menominee

3823

2998

6821

825

56.05%

43.95%

12.10%

Montmorency

2103

1314

3417

789

61.55%

38.45%

23.09%

Ontonagon

1455

1278

2733

177

53.24%

46.76%

6.48%

Oscoda

1520

946

2466

574

61.64%

38.36%

23.28%

Otsego

5133

2995

8128

2138

63.15%

36.85%

26.30%

Presque Isle

2914

2203

5117

711

56.95%

43.05%

13.89%

Schoolcraft

1587

1423

3010

164

52.72%

47.28%

5.45%

Mason County:

0

0

#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!

Freesoil Twp

0

0

#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!

Grant Twp

0

0

#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!

Hamlin Twp (part)

0

0

#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!

Meade Twp

0

0

#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!

Sheridan Twp

0

0

#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!

Sherman Twp

0

0

#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!

Victory Twp

0

0

#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!

Total

99593

78383

177976

21210

55.96%

44.04%

11.92%

Overall, I'd consider this a slight R lean, but not overwhelmingly so. North Michigan seats are tough defenses for the party in power if things aren't going well. It's just a very independent place with little to no tolerance for old fashion politicalspeak, regardless of party. This district will never be easy for anybody right now.