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Thursday, December 7, 2017

Trump's recognition of Jerusalem: Letting a genie out of the bottle

US President Donald J. Trump has let a genie out of the
bottle with his recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and intent to move
the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.

In taking his decision, Mr. Trump was implementing long
standing US policy dating back to the administrations of presidents Bill
Clinton, George W. Bush and Barak Obama even if none of them were willing to
put it into practice.

The key to judging Mr. Trump’s move is the politics behind
it and the black swan embedded in it. Recognizing Jerusalem formally as the
capital of Israel may well kill two birds at the same time: boost the
president’s standing among evangelists and conservatives at home and give him
leverage to negotiate what he has dubbed the ultimate deal between Israelis and
Palestinians.

There is no doubt that the move will boost Mr. Trump’s
popularity among his supporters and financial backers like casino magnate Sheldon
Adelson and allow him to assert that he has fulfilled a campaign promise.

Far less certain is whether, Mr. Trump will be willing or
able to constructively leverage his move to facilitate an Israeli-Palestinian
peace deal. His move moreover risks sparking an uncontrollable sequence of
events.

US officials have been tight-lipped about peace plans being
developed by Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law and chief
Israeli-Palestinian negotiator.

Almost the only confirmed fact about Mr. Kushner’s strategy
is that, based on his close relationship with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin
Salman, he is advocating what he describes as an outside-in
approach. In this scenario, Saudi Arabia would ensure Arab backing for a
peace plan put forward by Mr. Kushner.

The problem with that scenario is that implicit in US
recognition of Jerusalem as the capital of Israel is a rejection of the notion
that any Israeli Palestinian peace deal would have to involve either West
Jerusalem as the Israeli capital and East Jerusalem as the Palestinian capital
or shared control of Jerusalem as a whole that would serve as the capital of
both states.

Moreover, the future Palestinian state would consist of
non-contiguous parts of the West Bank to ensure that Israeli settlements in the
area remain under Israeli control. Finally, Palestinians would have to
surrender their demand for recognition of the right of return for Palestinians
who fled Israel/Palestine during the 1948 and 1967 wars.

Beyond the fact that it is hard to see how any Palestinian
leader could sign up for the plan, it threatens, coupled with Mr. Trump’s
recognition of Jerusalem, to inflame passions that Prince Mohammed and other
Arab autocrats may find difficult to control.

In a region that increasingly and brutally suppresses any
form of dissent or protest, Prince Mohammed and other Arab leaders could risk
fuelling the fire by seeking to suppress demonstrations against Mr. Trump’s
decision and what Arab and Muslim public opinion would perceive as a sell-out
of Palestinian rights.

The situation would become even more tricky if protests, as
is likely, would first erupt in Palestine and be countered with force by the
Israeli military. It is a scenario in which anti-US, anti-Israel protests in
Arab capitals could quickly turn into ant-government manifestations.

Palestinian groups have already called for three
days of rage. Protests would likely not be restricted to Middle Eastern
capitals but would probably also erupt in Asian nations like Pakistan,
Bangladesh, Malaysia and Indonesia.

In some ways, protests may well be the purpose of the
exercise. There is no way of confirming whether the readout provided to
officials and diplomats by Mr. Abbas of his meeting with Prince Mohammed is
accurate.

In what amounts to a dangerous game of poker, that readout
could well serve multiple purposes, including an effort by Mr. Abbas to boost
his position at home by projecting himself as resisting US and Saudi pressure.

Against a history of less than accurate media reporting and official
statements often designed to maintain a façade rather than reality, Saudi media
reported that King
Salman warned Mr. Trump that any decision to move the US Embassy before a
permanent peace settlement had been achieved would inflame the Muslim world.

While Prince Mohammed and Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin
Netanyahu see eye to eye in viewing Iran rather than the Israeli-Palestinian
conflict as the region’s core issue, it’s hard to imagine that the crown
prince, a man who has proven that he is not averse to unwarranted risks and
gambles, would surrender demands for Muslim control of at least part of Islam’s
third most holy city. It’s equally unfathomable that he would allow for a
situation in which the kingdom’s position as the custodian of the holy cities
of Mecca and Medina could be called into question.

Public Saudi backing for Mr. Trump’s recognition and any
plan to grant Israel full control of Jerusalem would see the genie turning on
the kingdom and its ruling family. Not only with public protests but also with
demands by Iran that Saudi Arabia be stripped of its custodianship and that
Mecca and Medina be put under some kind of pan-Islamic administration.

In other words, Mr. Trump and potentially Prince Mohammed,
are playing a game that could lead to a second phase of this decade’s popular
revolts and a serious escalation of an already dangerous Saudi-Iranian rivalry
that is wreaking havoc across the Middle East.

With his recognition of Jerusalem, Mr. Trump has likely
closed the door on any public or Arab support for a peace plan that falls short
of what is minimally acceptable to the Palestinians. Moreover, by allowing
speculation to flourish over what he has in mind with his ultimate
Israeli-Palestinian deal, Mr. Trump has potentially set a ball rolling that
neither he nor Arab autocrats may be able to control.

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About Me

James M DorseyWelcome to The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccer by James M. Dorsey, a senior fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. Soccer in the Middle East and North Africa is played as much on as off the pitch. Stadiums are a symbol of the battle for political freedom; economic opportunity; ethnic, religious and national identity; and gender rights. Alongside the mosque, the stadium was until the Arab revolt erupted in late 2010 the only alternative public space for venting pent-up anger and frustration. It was the training ground in countries like Egypt and Tunisia where militant fans prepared for a day in which their organization and street battle experience would serve them in the showdown with autocratic rulers. Soccer has its own unique thrill – a high-stakes game of cat and mouse between militants and security forces and a struggle for a trophy grander than the FIFA World Cup: the future of a region. This blog explores the role of soccer at a time of transition from autocratic rule to a more open society. It also features James’s daily political comment on the region’s developments. Contact: incoherentblog@gmail.comView my complete profile