In brief

Given the fragmented opposition, we expect the president, Idriss Déby, will remain in power in 2019-20. Yet, Chad's political stability will stay vulnerable due to heightened social tensions and a regional spread of Islamist activism, including from Nigeria. The economy will continue to recover in 2019-20 owing to an easing of the current fiscal austerity. The dominant oil sector will remain the main driver of real GDP growth.