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Awards beat 2017

Critics clearly operate on a different calendar than most moviegoers. By the end of November-beginning of December, most of the major critics groups already have put to bed their best-of-year lists.

Thus this week, the National Board of Review, and then the New York Film Critics Circle, named their honorees, with the Los Angeles Film Critics slated to read from their scroll — cue the trumpets — on Sunday.

New York, LA and the National Society of Film Critics (which, shockingly, actually waits until the end of the calendar year to weigh in) are, to my view, the most respectable of the sundry critics organizations; the National Board of Review is regarded as anything from an secretive, Masonic-type club to a bit of a joke. Then there are the likes of the Golden Globes, fun to watch but hard to take seriously (as when Matt Damon was named best actor in a comedy for “The Martian”), and sundry other regional and industry associations.

All anybody cares about are, of course, the Oscars, but critics awards are, despite conventional wisdom, not really a reliable indicator. Still, some conclusions can be drawn. Here’s what we’ve learned so far.

“Lady Bird” out in front. With a best director (Greta Gerwig) award from the NBR, and best picture and actress (Saoirse Ronan) from New York, not to mention its 100 percent ranking on the dubious Rotten Tomatoes, it will be impossible to ignore as one of the major American films of 2017. Caveat: Only a handful of comedies (yes, I’m aware that “Lady Bird” is also dramatic and emotionally complex) ever have won best picture, And we all know that only one woman ever won a best director Oscar, over 89 long years.

Willem Dafoe is the most honored actor of the year. He won supporting actor honors from both groups for “The Florida Project,” from “Tangerine” director Sean Baker. He most likely can expect more kudos, and Oscar is a sucker for having veteran performers finally land in the winner’s circle. Plus, the film is well-liked, but may not compete in many other categories.

“Coco” looks like a sure thing. The Disney-Pixar picture is both a critical and popular hit, so the Academy will have to come up with a new skeleton-shaped statuette.

“Dunkirk” appears to be slipping. Christopher Nolan’s immersive World War II picture, seen as the director’s attempt to earn finally top honors by turning away from his fantasy and superhero wheelhouse, may suffer from Oscar amnesia: Most anything released prior to October or November will be forgotten by year’s end. A December re-release is planned, so some nominations are assured, mostly on the tech side, but no major win now seems likely.

Ditto “Get Out.” Jordan Peele’s funny, instructive horror film is winning consolation prizes, such as the NBR’s best directorial debut and the NYFCC’s best first film. The Academy has become more welcoming to horror/sci-fi/fantasy, and way more welcoming to any black-oriented material, but this may be too boundary-pushing for such a hidebound institution. Plus, it’s a comedy (see “Lady Bird,” above).

Whither best actor? Timothee Chalamet (“Call Me By Your Name”) and Tom Hanks (“The Post”) were the NYFCC and NBR’s respective winners, and Chalamet probably will get Oscar consideration. The Academy, though, has leaned decisively away from established names and more toward fresher faces in the actor category; Hanks notably was not nominated for “Captain Phillips,” for example, despite raves in some quarters. Conspicuous in his absence has been Daniel Day-Lewis for Paul Thomas Anderson’s “Phantom Thread,” his professed farewell to acting, and normally a guy considered a shoo-in (no pun intended for the part-time cobbler). The film did, however, win best screenplay honors from both groups. Also missing thus far: Gary Oldman, for his waxworks impersonation of Winston Churchill in “Darkest Hour,” the sort of hoary great-man biopic performance Oscar loves. He still could be the front-runner, though (see Willem Dafoe), as a widely respected talent.

Beauty contest. The Academy is notorious for favoring the young and the beautiful in the actress races, but there are some interesting wrinkles this year. Ronan in “Lady Bird” will have to be nominated, but I’d be surprised if the well-liked Frances McDormand (“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”) were overlooked. Meryl Streep in “The Post,” the NBR’s winner, could be another “older” nominee, along with Judi Dench in yet another paean to ye glory days of ye British Empire, “Victoria and Abdul.” Academy just loves those royals! Last year’s best actress, Emma Stone, could get another shot for “Battle of the Sexes”; frequent nominee Jessica Chastain is gambling on a showy performance in “Molly’s Game” ; Sally Hawkins is winning strong notices for her silent-era work in “The Shape of Water”; and they used to like Jennifer Lawrence a lot, if not so much “Mother!” Meanwhile, Kate Winslet is another Academy favorite, and being directed by Woody Allen, in “Wonder Wheel,” used to be a plus, if maybe not so much post-Weinstein. And of all people, Margot Robbie strives to be taken seriously, as Tonya Harding in “I, Tonya,” and, in the ultimate signifier of such ambition, obscures her beauty with uglifying makeup and ’90s hair and attire. Worked for Charlize Theron! And, Michelle Williams goes a slightly similar route in “All the Money in the World,” from which any sign of newly minted non-person Kevin Spacey has been erased, by playing “older.”

#OscarsSoWhite. So far I don’t foresee many black nominees, in the acting categories, this year, outside of perennial nominee Denzel Washington in “Roman J. Israel, Esq.” and possibly Octavia Spencer in “The Shape of Water” or Mary J. Blige in “Mudbound.” Whether this would lead to more protests remains to be seen, but the Academy’s all-out effort to diversify its membership could mute any such arguments. Of course, what it all comes down to is Hollywood bankrolling more diverse films.