Will The Conservatives Out Perform The Polls?

My intuition is that most of the risks are still to
the downside on Labour's vote, given the history of overestimating
their vote in the past and that some pollsters are distributing
undecideds based on how people claimed to have voted in the last
election -- something which tends to help Labour because their voters
seem the most indifferent about this election. On the other hand, our
model is more aggressive than most others in taking away seats from
Labour for a given vote share.

As of this writing, betting
markets now give Conservatives about a 38 percent chance of claiming a
majority. I don't know that there's much arbitrage either way there,
but I'd be slightly inclined to take the Tories on those odds.

Ruffini, booster of conservative chances, predicts that the "Tories wind up with 328 seats and the chance to form a Government outright."

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