Thursday, November 27, 2014

Last week I offered 10 predictions for the next four years
of civic government in Vancouver.

In case you missed my column, I addressed possible
changes to the electoral system, the future of the viaducts and Broadway
subway, housing affordability and choices, and possible staff changes at City
Hall.

Unfortunately, space did not permit me to share all my
predictions, so here are ten more for the forthcoming term of office.

1.There will still be homeless people sleeping on
the streets in 2018. While many of today’s homeless will be housed, new
homeless people will take their place. Fortunately, the City Manager’s office
will realize it is counter-productive to place large concentrations of
hard-to-house people in expensive new buildings and homeless people will be
increasingly accommodated in scattered apartments throughout the city.

2.As Vancouver residents forego car ownership in
order to afford a roof over their heads, they will take more taxis. They will
also increasingly use various alternative transportation services such as London
style mini-cabs and Uber’s ‘ride-sharing’ service. To counter their popularity,
Metro’s taxi system will be reformed to increase availability and reduce fares.
Surrey cabs will no longer have to return empty from the downtown.

3.Vancouver’s dream of a popular and
cost-effective bike-share program will still be a dream four years from now
because of the provincial government’s helmet law.

4.To further protect heritage houses and
compensate owners for the corresponding loss in property value, Vancouver will
change its zoning bylaws to offer a modest density bonus to those who keep a
pre-1940 house, which can be combined with unused density to build laneway
houses and back-yard coach houses for sale.

5.To help fund his goal of planting 150,000 new
trees in Vancouver by 2020 as outlined in the Greenest City 2020 Action Plan,
Mayor Robertson will announce a tree dedication program that allows residents
to contribute towards the cost of planting a tree to commemorate a person or
life event. A small plaque will accompany each tree. It will be a very popular
program and the Mayor’s goal will be reached by 2018.

6.Noting the 2014 Downtown Eastside Local Area
Plan has resulted in very little new social and market housing in the Downtown
Eastside Oppenheimer District, with few new businesses opening up in derelict
and vacant storefronts, Brian
Jackson, Manager of Planning and Development will recommend changes to the
zoning bylaws to encourage new housing developments in the neighbourhood. Council will also agree to review policing
policies to reduce the increasing number of drug dealers openly operating on
the streets.

7.The mayor’s promise to build 1000 childcare
spaces and update hundreds more will not be achieved as it is realized the
combined effect of provincial and city standards results in costs well in
excess of $125,000 for each new childcare space. Courier columnist Mike Howell will remind the mayor this should not
be a surprise since his May 2014 story reported that 37 new spaces at the
Collingwood Neighbourhood House facility cost $4.6 million.

8.In response to complaints that too many Vancouver
buildings are either grey or dull green, the City planning department will
institute an Awards Program in 2015 encouragingVancouver architects to ‘brighten up the city’.The awards will recognize outstanding achievements
in the use of colour. By 2018 Vancouver residents will be complaining that the
use of colour is becoming quite jarring and architects will be encouraged to return
to grey and green.

9.The City will not offer
free parking at certain times, as promised by Kirk LaPointe. Instead it will reprogram
parking meters so that evening and Sunday rates are reduced in many locations.
The City will also propose that meter parking begin at 7 am, not 9 am with additional
monies to be used to fund additional bike lanes. Following a public outcry City
staff will agree to delay the start of meter parking until 8 am. The Mayor will
thank the Courier for initiating such
a valuable discussion.

10.The Courier Opinion Page
will welcome a new columnist to replace Michael Geller.

Friday, November 21, 2014

This Regent’s Park terraced housing is typical of
that built around London during the Georgian period.

Geller: Take some lessons
from London: Foreign investment: Insights to be gained when
comparing housing challenges in U.K. to those of our own

By
Michael Geller, Special to The Sun November 21, 2014 3:49 PM

As
Vancouver debates measures to deal with the negative impacts of foreign real
estate investment and vacant accommodation, it is instructive to see how London
has been dealing with similar issues.

The price
of housing in London has always been high relative to the rest of England and
the world. However, during a recent trip, I learned that over the past decade,
costs have increased dramatically as buyers from Asia, the Middle East, Russia
and other European countries have priced many Britons out of the market.

One of
the most extreme examples is One Hyde Park, which began marketing in 2007 as
the most exclusive address in the world. At the time, it was priced at the
Canadian equivalent of about $4,500 a square foot. However, over the past seven
years, the price has risen to about $12,400 a square foot.

While
some buyers are the end users, other properties are being bought purely as
investments and not used at all.

Another
example is The Shard, Europe’s tallest building. Three two-storey duplexes and
seven single-storey apartments on floors 53 to 65 have been priced between $53
million and $88 million each. They are currently on the market and expected to be
purchased almost exclusively by offshore buyers.

To
address what many consider the negative impacts of foreign buyers, earlier this
year a leading right-wing think-tank called on government officials to adopt a
scheme similar to one operating in Australia, which restricts sales to overseas
buyers unless they add to the existing housing stock.

Such a
system would mean that no existing home could be sold to a foreign buyer.
Furthermore, new units could only be bought by non-residents if their
investment would result in one or more additional properties being built.

It is
interesting to compare foreign-owned vacant properties in London and Vancouver.

A U.K.
property firm estimated that in 2013, 70 per cent of “new-build” properties in
Central London went to foreign investors, while 30 per cent of London’s luxury
homes worth more than $1.8 million were bought by non-U.K. residents.

Last
year, the U.K. chancellor announced he was closing a loophole that allowed
foreign investors to make huge profits on sales of U.K. homes by avoiding any
capital gains tax. A 28-per-cent capital gains tax will begin in April 2015. In
Canada, foreign investors pay tax on any real estate gains.

The U.K.
has also imposed a 15-per-cent “stamp duty rate” or purchase tax for foreign investors
who buy through corporate shell companies.

During my
recent trip, the newspapers were full of stories about a proposed ‘mansion tax’
being put forward by the opposition Labour Party. It would apply to homes
costing $3.6 million or more and add an additional tax payment of $442 per
month. However, those earning less than about $74,000 would be allowed to defer
payment until they sold or died.

Echoing
the position of Vancouver COPE mayoral candidate Meena Wong, the U.K.
government and others are advocating that local councils impose higher property
taxes on foreign investors who leave homes empty. Last June, London Mayor Boris
Johnson added his voice by urging local authorities to “whack up the council
tax” on houses that remain empty for more than a year.

However,
local authorities can already impose a 50-per-cent tax increase if a property
remains vacant after two years, but are not doing so because of the
administrative difficulties in determining which properties should be
penalized. Some absentee owners are avoiding the council tax surcharge by
moving in a table and chair.

As Liam
Bailey, global head of research at Knight Frank, eloquently put it: “The
problem with measures to tackle empty homes or under-occupied homes, whether
sensible or not, fundamentally comes down to practicalities. Namely, how
government can actually define and then identify empty homes. The practical implications
of the policy are likely to be limited.”

In the
U.K., the federal government is very much a part of the conversation. In
Vancouver, the federal government has been silent.

Another
discussion taking place in Vancouver is how best to increase density in and
around single-family neighbourhoods without resorting to highrises.Again, it
may be instructive to look at London.

Throughout
the city, one finds medium-density ‘zero lot-line’ terraced housing. By ‘zero
lot-line,’ I mean each unit extends from one side property line to the other,
not unlike most commercial buildings along arterial roads in Vancouver.

Terraced
housing was built from the 1600s to the early 20th century throughout London.
While some units were very modest, especially during the Victorian and
Edwardian eras, others were quite the opposite. A glamorous Georgian
end-terrace house in Cornwall Terrace Mews overlooking London’s Regent’s Park
sold in 2013 for $145 million, probably the most expensive terrace home sale in
history.

One of the
defining features of terraced housing is the repetitive, uniform front facade
and uniform height. This height can vary from two to five floors. In addition,
many properties, especially during the Georgian era, had a lower level accessed
from a gated front courtyard.

Today,
many of the terraced units continue as single-family properties. However,
others, especially larger properties, have become hotels or offices, or been
divided into flats providing more modestly priced accommodation. In many
instances, elevators have been added. However, other terraced housing still
requires residents to climb the stairs.

As
Vancouver and surrounding municipalities redevelop, I believe there are many
opportunities for terraced housing, especially as a transition between higher
density, mixed use arterial development and single-family neighbourhoods
behind. It might also be built around parks and community centres.

Depending
on the location, the front and rear yard setbacks could vary to fit in with the
surrounding neighbourhood character. A lower level might be included as a
separate suite for sale, or as a rental unit, not unlike the basement suite in
a single-family house.

Vancouver
can learn from London’s experience when it comes to both regulating foreign
buyers and new forms of housing.

Michael
Geller is a Vancouver architect, planner, real estate consultant and developer
— and a frequent contributor to Westcoast Homes. He can be reached at geller@sfu.ca

While I
and no doubt many of you were pleased with some of the results and disappointed
with others, there is no doubt Vancouver residents were far more engaged in
this election compared to previous years.

Furthermore,
although the council makeup has not changed significantly, the election
campaign may well change how Vision Vancouver governs over the coming four
years.

On
election night, I was pleased to join fellow columnist Allen Garr and Courier
editor Barry Link in 20-minute-long live streaming video as
we analyzed the results and discussed what might be in store for the coming
term.

During
the course of our election night coverage I made a number of predictions. While
this can often be as dangerous as making promises, let me share 10 predictions
for the coming four years.

While there will be
increased calls to adopt a ward system with elected representatives from
different neighbourhoods around the city, this will not happen. However,
some election reforms will occur. The province will approve much-needed
limits on donations from individuals, corporations, unions and other
organizations prior to the next election.

Others will join me in
speaking out for a need to redesign ballots to neutralize the unfair
advantage granted to those whose names begin at the top of the alphabet.
Consideration will be given to multiple ballots with each candidate’s name
at the top, and an arbitrary scrambling of the names. However, both will
be rejected, along with a proposal to have a round ballot.

Considerable effort will be
devoted to seeking public support for the referendum on transit funding.
The Courier will do special features on alternative funding mechanisms and
the experiences of other jurisdictions. The referendum will pass, although
many residents will claim they did not really understand the question.

Council will deliberate on
whether to remove the viaducts. Despite opposition from NPA councillors
and Adriane Carr, council will approve their demolition. However, four
years from now they will still be standing as a result of numerous
unforeseen cost considerations.

There will be a lot of
discussion about the design and funding requirements for the Broadway
subway. However, construction will not begin during the four-year term as
a result of numerous unforeseen cost considerations.

Concern about foreign
ownership of vacant properties will continue. Council will approve a study
on what measures should be put in place to address the problem. However,
the study will conclude this is beyond the control of municipal government
and nothing will be done.

The Vancouver Affordable
Housing Authority will get underway with much fanfare. There will be much
criticism from the public on the composition of the board of directors.
While a few sites will be offered for lease, the VAHA will not have much
impact on housing affordability in the city over the next four years.

Senior city staff will agree
with Kirk LaPointe’s campaign claim that it is time to dust off the
Mayor’s Task Force on Affordable Housing report. The city will implement
the proposal for a transition zone between arterials and single family
zo

nes where row houses and other forms of more compact housing will be
allowed. A demonstration program allowing laneway and infill housing to be
sold under certain conditions will also be successful.

More rental housing will be
built on parking lots and through regeneration of older rental properties.
A few older non-profit projects will also be redeveloped to provide
additional housing and generate revenues to upgrade the balance of the
units. However, rental housing will remain expensive four years from now.

There will be repeated calls
for city manager Penny Ballem to leave city hall. However, she will still
be with us four years from now, albeit with a more consensus-driven
management style. At least one senior park board official will be gone,
and despite praise for his governance, the mayor will decide not to
complete his term. Four years from now, Vancouver will have its first
Chinese-Canadian mayor.