Jill Stein and Hillary Clinton seek recounts in three close states that Trump won: WI, PA, MI. This is an analysis of six states that Clinton barely won. Shouldn’t they be re-counted as well?

The 2016 Election Model exactly forecast the official recorded electoral vote: 306 – 232. It also forecast the True electoral vote as 351-187 (after undecided voter allocation). Trump would win the True EV if he won six states he narrowly lost: VA NV MN NH ME CO.

NHFinal Exit Poll (CNN): Clinton won NH by 3,000 votes (47.6-47.2%)Party-ID: 36D-33R-31I.Using the same vote shares, but with a 21.5D-23.9R-54.6I Party-ID derived from the Gallup National survey (32D-28R-40I), Trump won NH by 28,000 votes (47.9-44.0%).MNFinal Exit Poll: Clinton won MN by 44,000 votes (46.9-45.4%)Party-ID: 37D-35R-28I.Using the same vote shares, but with an estimated 34.7D-31R-34.3I Party-ID derived from the Gallup National survey. Trump won MN by 31,000 votes (47.2-46.1%).

MEFinal Exit Poll (CNN): Clinton won ME by 20,000 votes (47.9-45.2%)Party-ID: 31D-30R-39I.Using the same vote shares, but with an estimated 25.2D-21.6R-53.3I Party-ID derived from the Gallup National survey, Trump won ME by 24,000 votes (47.3-44.1%).

COFinal Exit Poll (CNN): Clinton won CO by 75,000 votes (47.3-44.4%)Party-ID: 32D-24R-33I.Using the same vote shares, but with an estimated 24.4D-26.2R-49.5I Party-ID derived from the Gallup National survey, Trump won CO by 86,000 votes (47.5-44.1%).

NVFinal Exit Poll (CNN): Clinton won NV by 26,000 votes (47.7-45.5%)Party-ID: 36D-28R-36I.Using the same vote shares, but with an estimated 31.3D-27.5R-41.2I Party-ID derived from the Gallup National survey, Trump won NV by 20,000 votes (47.2-45.5%)

VAFinal Exit Poll (CNN): Clinton won VA by 186,000 votes (49.9-45.0%)Party-ID: 40D-33R-26I.Using the same vote shares, but with an estimated 31.6D-33.4R-35I Party-ID derived from the Gallup National survey, Trump won VA by 60,000 votes (48.1-46.1%).

These states look fraudulent (vote padding?)
IL
Final Exit Poll: Clinton won IL by 859,000 votes (55.4-39.4%)
Party-ID: 45D-30R-25I
Using the same vote shares with an estimated
Party-ID: 37.1D-27.8R-35.1I derived from the Gallup National survey
Clinton won IL by 336,000 votes (51.1-41.4%).

3 responses to “The 2016 presidential recounts: why not add these six states?”

Pamela

December 1, 2016 at 10:20 am

Can you explain how the 46% of ballots cast that did not choose a Presidential preference will be counted? Are those considered unallocated votes? Are they possibly Bernie’s votes? How and when will they be counted? Would this mean that Bernie actually won over Trump?
46% to 25%?