Brumbies coach Stephen Larkham had a knack for pulling the proverbial rabbit out of a hat during his illustrious playing days. He's going to need a giant rabbit foot if his team is to make the finals, let alone win the title. The Canberra team's successive losses in South Africa, including a shambolic performance against the Bulls on the weekend, are a fair indicator of where they’re at with three games to go before the play-offs – in an almighty funk.

Granted, it's not easy to win in the republic where lower to mid-table teams, so feeble on the road, suddenly become hometrack bullies. But the Brumbies, by their own lofty standards and aspirations, would have been bitterly disappointed by what has transpired in the last fortnight. Their scrum, a strength for most of this season, has imploded. The line-out has been diabolical. And, aside from winger Henry Speight's efforts, very little has come of the attack, and even less of the defence. The farce against the Cheetahs (see last week's column) probably cost Matt Toomua a Wallaby fly-half gig for the French Test series.

Whatever confidence the Brumbies took from beating the table-topping Sharks barely three weeks ago in Canberra has evaporated. The side's shocking reversal of fortune since then from conference leader to third – and seventh overall in the competition – was confirmed on the weekend when the Force's indomitable captain, Matt Hodgson, conjured a fourth-try bonus point in the 78th minute against the Lions to snare second place, just three points adrift of the Waratahs.

Larkham will be eyeing this weekend's fixtures as an opportunity to regain lost ground, with the Force and Tahs facing difficult away assignments to the Crusaders and Chiefs respectively. The Brumbies are back at home to host the Rebels. In current form, the Rebels would have to fancy their chances. They’ve already beaten the Brumbies this season (round seven), and Tony McGahan's team have improved markedly since then, notwithstanding a last start 41-19 loss to the Tahs. The Rebels didn't play poorly by any stretch. The Tahs were simply the superior team – maybe even the best in the comp alongside the Hurricanes – with their high risk, high reward attacking game finally clicking.

The Tahs are soaring. Their coach, Michael Cheika, has done a magnificent job transforming the NSW side from grind merchants to thrill-a-minute potential champions. It would have been easy for Cheika to rein in his team's flamboyance after the 32-10 loss to the Sharks in round seven, when they smashed the competition leaders senseless and attacked from all parts only to come undone by poor handling. Those passes are now sticking. It's all coming together.

The Tahs, however, face a tricky three-match run to the play-offs with the defending champions the Chiefs in Hamilton on Saturday, and the Brumbies, Highlanders and Reds to follow after the three-week break for the June internationals. There's two schools of thought on the Chiefs following their humiliating 45-8 weekend loss to the Hurricanes – 1) They're hurting and will mop the floor with their next opposition; 2) They're on the ropes, fatally wounded and ready to drop. The latter is probably more accurate. There's blood in the water in Hamilton. If the Tahs are genuine title contenders, they'll get a whiff of it and make the kill.

Skelton needs protection against France

How will Tahs lock Will Skelton's body hold up against France? Photograph: David Crosling/AAP Image

It's great to see Will Skelton, all 135kg of him, named in the Wallabies squad. The 22-year-old Tahs lock is an exciting prospect. Some might view his selection as premature. It's a fair point. Skelton's body might be massive but he still looks and moves like an overgrown teenager. The softer contours of his upper body will no doubt harden up in coming seasons and he will develop the stamina required for repeated efforts like the Kane Douglases and Brodie Retallicks of this world.

Skelton has clearly been selected for future. And with NZ rugby bosses making noises about reaching out to All Blacks-eligible players based in Australia, the Australian Rugby Union probably had no choice but to get him signed on and capped as soon as possible. Hopefully, the Wallabies coach Ewen McKenzie adopts a cautious and graduated approach to Skelton's introduction to Test rugby, especially against gnarly French forwards who'll go well out of their way to welcome the young lad. It’s advisable not to send Skelton out to face the French unless James Horwill and Scott Higginbotham are riding shotgun.

No surprise to see Bernard Foley selected as one of two fly-halves named in the Wallabies 32-man squad. However, Toomua's shunting to the centres in favour of Kurtley Beale as the other fly-half was unexpected – not so much in that Beale is rated as a fly-half, but more so that Toomua clearly is not. Toomua has supposedly been one of Australia's premier 10s at Super level for several seasons, and considered by many to be straight swap for the injured Quade Cooper. His placement in the centres suggests he didn't do nearly enough with ball in hand for the Brumbies this season. Toomua’s snubbing for one of the fly-half spots must surely rankle given that's his preferred position.

Talking points

• The Reds rarely get a mention these days now that they’ve spectacularly bombed out of finals contention. However, Friday night’s game against the Highlanders at Suncorp should be a goodie. The Reds, although out of the running for silverware, will be desperate for a win to avoid the ignominy of seven straight losses and a possible wooden spoon. The Highlanders, unlucky against the Crusaders, quite simply need to win to stay in the finals race.

• All the talk thus far has been about the Tahs, Sharks, Crusaders, Chiefs and the Brumbies for the title. But, on form, the Hurricanes are the side to fear. After witnessing the Canes destroy the defending champs the Chiefs 45-8 on the weekend, who’d want to face them first-up should they make the play-offs? The bookies have them at 20-1 to win the title. It’s madness. If the Canes, second on the NZ conference, beat the Blues on Saturday expect those odds to plummet.