Wednesday, February 5, 2014

Musings On Iraq January 2014 Security Report For Iraq UPDATED

January 2014 was an especially bloody month in Iraq. Not
only was there widespread violence in Anbar, but there were a huge number of
deaths in Baghdad and Salahaddin as well. The latter appeared to be the only
province that saw a decided increase in attacks since the uprising in Anbar
started. There were also scattered attacks throughout the south, and low-level operations
in Babil, Diyala, and Tamim. This month may set a precedent for what security could
be like the rest of the year.

Musings On Iraq has started its own security report. It is
based upon tracking violence through the major western news agencies in the
country including the Associated Press, Reuters, and Agence France Presse, China’s
Xinhua, major media outlets like Al Jazeera and the BBC as well as several
Iraqi newspapers such as the Iraqi National News Agency, AIN, Al Forat, Aswat
al-Iraq, Al Sabah, the Independent Press Agency, Buratha News, Al Rayy, the
Iraq Times, Al Mada, Radio Nawa, Alsumaria, and Al Masalah. These sources will
be used to compile a monthly tally for violence across 15 of Iraq’s 18
provinces including deaths, wounded, and types of attacks. The three governorates
in Kurdistan will not be covered since that region is largely secure, and not a
real focus of the insurgency.

In the first month of 2014 there was a huge amount of death
and destruction. There were 1,031 reported security incidents. Most of those were
concentrated in Baghdad, 261, Anbar, 241, Ninewa, 185, and Salahaddin, 184. Anbar obviously had many more acts of violence than that due to the on going
fighting there. Diyala with 70 attacks, Tamim with 50, and Babil with 23 saw
low-militant activity, while Basra, 4, Dhi Qar, 2, Maysan, 3, Muthanna, 1, Qadisiyah,
1, and Wasit, 6, only had sporadic violence. Karbala and Najaf saw no attacks at
all. In comparison, just a year ago in January 2014 there were only 564 attacks
spread over Baghdad, 140, Diyala, 112, Ninewa 102, Salahaddin, 81, Anbar, 53,
Tamim, 43, Babil, 20, Karbala, 8, Wasit and Basra with 2 attacks each, and
Maysan with 1. Dhi Qar, Muthanna, Najaf, and Qadisiyah had no security
incidents. Anbar alone cannot account for the huge increase in violence. Rather
the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) was
able to rebuild itself in 2013, and carried out attacks up and down the
length of the country. The Baathist
Naqshibandi were also active in areas such as Tamim, Ninewa, Diyala, and
Salahaddin, while Ansar al-Islam was working in Ninewa. Now other groups that
have not really been heard of since the civil war years like the Islamic Army,
Hamas Iraq, the 1920 Revolutionary Brigades, the Mujahadeen Army, and others
are all said to be fighting in
Anbar. All those organizations making a comeback point to a more violent
year ahead.

Security Incidents In
Iraq Jan. 2014

Province

Number of Reported Security Incidents

Shootings

Bombings

Anbar

241+

143

46

Babil

23

2

20

Baghdad

261

99

166

Basra

4

1

3

Dhi Qar

2

2

0

Diyala

70

38

41

Karbala

0

0

0

Maysan

3

2

1

Muthanna

1

1

0

Najaf

0

0

0

Ninewa

185

95

69

Qadisiyah

1

0

0

Salahaddin

184

75

120

Tamim

50

11

44

Wasit

6

1

5

TOTAL

1,031

470

515

The two main forms of attack in January were small arms fire
and bombings. There were 468 shootings and 515 bombings last month. Most of the
latter were small IEDs, but there were also 78 car bombs and 45 suicide
bombings, 14 of which included vehicles. Those types of operations take more
planning and infrastructure to prepare. Almost all of those were carried out by
the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS), and highlights its rebirth. According
to the Institute for the Study of War ISIS probably has created a series of car
bomb factories in areas of Baghdad, northern Babil, northern Diyala, and
parts of Anbar. The group’s trademark was coordinated car bombings on a single
day. There were twelve days with three or more such attacks. The deadliest were
January 5 when five car bombs went off in Baghdad’s Shaab,
Sadr
City, Suq
al-Arabi, and Jamila
neighborhoods that left 22 dead and 61 wounded. January 9 vehicle laden bombs
were used in Ramadi,
Anbar,
Albu
Ghanem, Anbar, Muthanna
Airport, Baghdad, and Tikrit,
Salahaddin
killing 44 and wounding 67. January 13 Shula,
Shaab, (1) Adhamiya,
and Bab
Muadham all in Baghdad were hit resulting in 21 fatalities and 80 wounded. January
15 Shula,
Shaab, Karrada, Husseiniya,
Palestine Street, Mamil, and Sadr City
in Baghdad, and Dujail,
Salahaddin were bombed with 35 killed and 101 wounded. January 18 Ghazaliya,
Mansour, Jamila, Utafiya,
and Tobji
in Baghdad were attacked along with Baiji,
Salahaddin leaving 51 killed and 61 wounded. January 20 Dora,
New
Baghdad, Hurriya,
Shuhada, Baya,
Iskan,
Shurta,
Abu
Dishir in Baghdad along with Tuz
Kharmato in Salahaddin were all bombed leading to 36 fatalities and 118
wounded. While those days were the ones that grabbed all the headlines it was
the daily grind of IEDs, drive by shootings, and attacks upon checkpoints that
accounted for the vast majority of casualties. Ninewa for instance only had
three car bombs in January, but ended up with 170 deaths and 193 wounded. These
types of security incidents were usually the work of the other insurgent groups
like the Naqshibandi and Ansar al-Sunna.

Another tactic insurgents have been using is the bombing of
houses. Sometimes these are simply booby traps set outside, but other times
entire buildings have been destroyed. There were 27 such incidents in January destroying 46 houses in Anbar, Babil, Diyala, Ninewa, Salahaddin, and Tamim. Many of these were the residences of
politicians or members of the security forces and were obviously aimed at
scaring these people.

Going through the types of attacks also highlights the
different nature of violence throughout the country. In Baghdad ISIS and others
were aiming at mass casualty bombings. A total of 166 bombs went off in the
capital province in January. The majority of those were IEDs, 85, and sticky
bombs attached to vehicles, 23, but there were also 47 car bombs the most in
the country. In comparison, in Ninewa 95 of the 172 incidents involved
shootings. 104 of those were also in Mosul where ISIS maintains a large urban
base and operates more like a mafia extorting money from businesses. The vast
majority of incidents there appeared to be aimed at intimidating the community
and security forces so that the militants could maintain their financial base.
There are plenty of stories of the Islamic State bombing a café or restaurant
that didn’t pay protection money. In Tamim, most of the attacks were small
bombings or shootings with civilians being the main targets. In Salahaddin the
security forces accounted for the majority of the dead and wounded. The nine
provinces of the south only saw 40 incidents, and 23 of those were in Babil
where ISIS has bases. January was the second month in a row where the group did
not carry out any car bombings in southern Iraq. The Islamic State was
apparently focusing their attention upon Baghdad and Anbar.

Casualties In Iraq
Jan. 2014

Province

Killed

ISF +
Sahwa

Civilians

Wounded

ISF +
Sahwa

Civilians

Anbar

300

91 + 19 Awakening

187

730

80 + 15 Awakening

635

Babil

8

4

4

50

23

27

Baghdad

564

76 + 12 Sahwa + 3 FPS

473

1,199

148 + 10 Sahwa

1,041

Basra

3

0

3

1

0

1

Dhi Qar

1

0

1

1

0

1

Diyala

156

37 + 13 Sahwa

106

150

56

94

Karbala

0

0

0

0

0

0

Maysan

2

1

1

0

0

0

Muthanna

1

0

1

0

0

0

Najaf

0

0

0

0

0

0

Ninewa

183

92

91

197

120 + 9 FPS

68

Qadisiyah

1

0

1

0

0

0

Salahaddin

235

113 + 24 Sahwa

98

389

155 + 15 Sahwa

219

Tamim

37

5 + 2 Asayesh + 2 Sahwa

28

151

31 + 5 Sahwa

115

Wasit

4

1

3

8

4

4

TOTALS

1,495

419 + 70 Sahwa + 3 FPS + 2 Asayesh

997

2,876

617 + 45 Sahwa + 9 FPS

2,205

In total 1,495 people were killed and 2,876 were wounded
last month. In comparison, back in January 2013 there were 724 fatalities and
1,311 wounded. The insurgents have been able to more than double their
effectiveness over the last twelve months. Civilians were the main victims of
these operations accounting for 997 of the dead and 2,205 of the wounded.

The rest of 2014 may be like January. Fighting may die down
in Anbar, but it has brought back many insurgent groups that have not been
heard of since the civil war years. They along with the Naqshibandi and ISIS
will create a deadly combination. The result could be 1,000 or more deaths per
month for the rest of the year. The April elections may be effected if the
government doesn’t feel like it can secure dangerous provinces. More
importantly the arduous negotiations that will follow the vote to create a new
government will mean that there will be no political moves that might sway
those that support the insurgency away from the militants and no change in
security policy either. This will give the insurgency at least a year if not
more to organize and rebuild.

A note about sources. Usually all of the articles consulted
are listed in the bibliography. Since this report is based upon roughly 1,000
separate news articles it is impossible to have them all in the piece. For the
sake of space then only the reports that were linked are included here.

IRAQ HISTORY TIMELINE

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About Me

Musings On Iraq was started in 2008 to explain the political, economic, security and cultural situation in Iraq via original articles and interviews. If you wish to contact me personally my email is: motown67@aol.com