Trump vs Trump: What Excites, Scares AAII Readers in 2017

A few weeks back we asked our readers where they thought the S&P 500 would end up in 2017, with the majority (74%) believing the index would end the year in the green. This week we broadened our answer and moved beyond investing.

AAII Weekly Survey Question

Last week as we asked our readers:

What is your outlook for 2017?

Here is how they responded:

Out of the 2,427 readers who responded, 50% are mildly optimistic about the new year ahead of us. However, the second biggest vote-getter was indifference at 17%, specifically that they are neither pessimistic or optimistic about 2017. Following close behind in third place, with 16% of the votes, was mildly pessimistic. Only 16% of our readers hold strong outlooks for 2017, with 11% feel very optimistic and 5% feeling very pessimistic about 2017.

Weekly Special Question

After asking in broad terms their feelings for 2017, we wanted to delve deeper so we asked our readers:

What most excites you and scares you about 2017?

Perhaps not surprising, one word came up the most: Trump. To be more specific, President-elect Donald Trump. In fact, out of the 409 responses we received, Trump was mentioned in 221 of them. However, the majority of those who mentioned Donald Trump did not do so in a positive light. In all, 205 readers cited Donald Trump as one of the things that most scares them about 2017, while 122 said Donald Trump is one thing that excites them about 2017. Interestingly, 74 respondents said that a trump presidency was the most exciting AND most scary thing about 2017.

Donald Trump is very much on the minds of many, as Trump responses outdistanced all others by a wide margin. (Dare we say huge!).

Among other issues that have readers on edge are global issues, including terrorism, trade and individual nations such as China, North Korean, Russia and Iran.

Specific issues that have our readers excited about 2017 include the possibility of tax reform and deregulation from the Trump administration.

Here is a sampling of the responses:

“[I] Am excited that many of the barriers of regulation will be taken out to allow the economy to surge. Tax reductions & reform can also excite, once I see action taking place. Somewhat scared that the political Swamp People will do everything in their power to maintain the status quo, and not allow the country to move forward unless they are able to profit from such a move.”

“Having a business person as our president who should appreciate the consequences of the laws passed and approach government actions on a more business approach.”

“Most excited by the opportunity to watch Trump and his cabinet defy protocol, toss the 250-year political culture that has grown and matured since Washington’s election that has defined America to the world, trash all customs and expectations, and try to quickly replace it all with a new order. Most scared by the same thing because I’m old enough to have watched it all tried before elsewhere.”

“I am excited about Trump’s individual federal tax rate reductions before I reach MRD age. I plan to move a substantial portion of my regular IRA money to my Roth with less tax burden than now.”

“Excites: The possibility that Donald Trump will foment constructive change that creates a better business climate by reducing over-regulation and taxes.”

“Draining the swamp is like stirring a hornet’s nest.”

“An erratic president who doesn’t seem to make decisions based on data is frightening.”

“I suppose all the “unknowns” of a new Administration, but this time on Steroids. Trump has said so many incendiary and provocative things regarding gender, race, foreign relations, taxes, deficits, etc., that I find myself on guard to ward off the next unsettling and untutored posit from a proven liar at the head of our government.”

“Donald Trump being sworn in as President of the United States of America scares the hell out of me.”

“Most scary: Donald Trump Excites: The AAII National Conference!” (which is being held in Florida in November so mark you calendar!)

Everybody has an opinion! Why not give us yours? Participate in our weekly member poll, updated every Monday, and see the results online at http://www.aaii.com/memberquestion.

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Wayne A. Thorp, CFA, is the senior financial analyst and a vice president at AAII. He has written extensively on the topics of technical analysis, quantitative stock selection, stock valuation and analysis, and technology. He is the program manager for Stock Investor Pro, AAII's fundamental stock screening and research database programs. Wayne is also the lead analyst and product manager for AAII's Stock Superstars newsletter and serves on the investment committee of the Dividend Investing newsletter. He has worked at AAII since 1997.

My guess is that this will be a year of wide fluctuations. Both hope and despair will keep us on a roller coaster. There is a lot to consider besides Trump. I think Trump is the wild card, but inflation and interests rates will have a significant impact. Making the largest employer in the country (the Federal Government) smaller will negatively effect economic growth by removing much of the stimulus that keeps the economy moving. It will also raise the unemployment rate. Government and business must work hand in hand for maximum benefit for everyone.