Ménage à trois

It’s the economy stupid; but more to the point it’s what do we do about the economy that will be the consequences of the next election. Do we adopt the Democratic solution of tax and spend, drive it like it is stolen solution? Will the American people opt for the tough love Tea Party model that basically translates into; ‘we have to stop spending before we can even think about paying off the national debt’? Or will the voters choose the Republican strategy which at the moment appears to be, slash everything with a ‘D’ connected to it, shift the tax burden to the middle class and implement trickle down prosperity?

Of course the state of the economy will determine the outcome and the consequences, and there’s no magic formula the people can use in making their choice. We are in uncharted waters that abound with dangerous reefs. The European mess threatens the domino effect and one of the side effects of the European cure may end up being worse than the disease.

However unlikely a single EU government may appear to be, it will be a necessity to the “cure” that may destabilize the entire continent (if it fails or if it succeeds) with European investors flocking to find safe havens in the dollar, (if we’re lucky) or perhaps in the Chinese currency if that nation’s recent efforts to globalize it’s currency is successful. The result will be a battle for the status of world reserve currency and the dominoes will fall, with global trade wars and tariffs as the sign posts in the race to the bottom.

The great unknown that threatens to spin the whole process out of control are the higher expectations of an American population watching the deterioration of their standard of living accelerate. With no relief in sight and the best laid plans of both political parties producing only unintended consequences in a timeline of rapidly diminishing windows of opportunity. Do-overs are a luxury our economy can no longer afford.

Post election, the last man standing will have to get it right the first time, every time; and even then success or failure will hinge on the patience of the long suffering American people and an evolving sense of self restraint in our elected officials, which at this point in the process does not appear very promising.

Enter the TEA Party effect; the back to the fundamentals of government, downsizing and the bite the bullet economic strategy, with more than enough pain to go around. The coming election will be a referendum on the character of the American people and on the future inheritance of their grandchildren. The only certainty is that there will be no do-overs. Choose wisely.