The Latest Victim Of The Ukraine Crisis: Beer

Everyone knows that when it comes to apologists and scapegoats, Q1 was all about weather excuses, and as SocGen already showed earlier today when it took a $730 million charge on its Russian subsidiary, Q2 misses will all be Ukraine's fault, which is ironic because as recently as a month ago experts were screaming over each other how little Ukraine matters for the global economy, how meaningless Russian exposure is to western banks and so on. But while one can at least superficially justify a bank provisioning against deposit flight and the accumulation of bad debt in a country in which paying one's debt is the last thing on the population's mind, a new and quite different victim of the Ukraine crisis was revealed earlier today when beer titan Carlsberg swung to a net loss and issued a profit warning: beer.

One would think revolutions and civil wars are bullish for thirst and alcohol consumption: after all it is far easier to charge a tank when hammered than sober. However, when it comes to beer at least, one would be wrong.

As the WSJ explained, the reason why Carlsberg - the fourth largest brewer in the world - had some less than pleasant words about events in the Ukraine, "the Danish brewer has built up a significant exposure to Russia in recent years, driven by beer brands such as Baltika and Tuborg, amid a wider bet it has placed on Eastern Europe." The bet got so big that Russia is now its largest single market. And now comes the hangover.

The world's No. 4 brewer downgraded its full-year outlook for net performance to reflect Russia's fragile economic situation, saying it now expects net profit to grow by a low-single-digit percentage in 2014, instead of the mid-single-digit percentage it previously expected. The ruble's weakness against the euro, along with currency headwinds in some other markets, is a key reason behind the downgrade.

To be sure Obama did warn of "costs" in Russia, but as we have noted repeatedly, he did not clarify that the costs would be borne by western companies.

That said, Carlsberg decided to go for the kitchen sink approach, and in addition to blaming the Ukraine crisis also reached for that old standby, drumroll, "poor weather." And just to seal the trifecta of excuses, it also threw in the slowing Chinese economy in the bucket.

Carlsberg was also hit by poor weather conditions in China and a weak economy in Vietnam. It said organic growth conditions, excluding the impact of foreign exchange, remains strong and the performance of its premium labels is strengthening.

"Included in the outlook is a more uncertain macro situation in Russia and Ukraine," the company said. Interruptions in Ukraine were very limited through March 31, but the brewer has had to stop production at times in recent months and the government at the beginning of May boosted beer excise duties by 43%, leading to price increases of 5% to 6% for Carlsberg products.

Considering that the company reported a 14% net revenue decline in Eastern Europe in the first quarter compared with a year earlier, and its overall operating profit fell by about a third, perhaps there is a more systemic reason for the plunge in demand for its products: such as the locals, not only in Russia but elsewhere, simply no longer have the discretionary income to afford its products. Indeed, the facts bear this out:

Even before the crisis in Ukraine, which has affected many European companies with a presence in Russia, brewers were struggling due to regulatory changes and other factors that pulled the overall Russian beer market down. Last month, Dutch brewer Heineken NV, one of Carlsberg's main rivals, reported a 37% fall in first quarter net profit, citing "challenging beer market conditions in Russia."

But let's not focus on this too much as it would destroy the entire narrative that the reason why some $50 billion in projected growth was wiped out from the $17 trillion US economy had to do with "harsh weather."

As for Asia, apparently it snowed in China and Japan too. And when it snows there, nobody drinks beer.

Group beer volumes for Carlsberg declined 3% during the first quarter, as organic growth in Western Europe was offset by declines in Eastern Europe and Asia. In addition to unfavorable weather conditions in Asia, Carlsberg also pulled back from unprofitable volumes during the quarter.

But before we cry for Carlsberg we are confident that the company, which certainly has the balance sheet for it, will be raided by some activist who demands it stop expanding here and there and instead use the bulk of its cash to buyback its stock - after all what better way to give the false impression that all is going swimmingly with a company than it levering up and using the proceeds to be even more shareholder friendly.

Finally, as for end demand, this is Russia we are talking about: if anything, what is left unsaid here is that the locals, who may indeed have shunned beer, have simply moved on to cheaper, and more concentrated alternatives. Speaking of, is Popov vodka public?

A law enforcement official in the U.S. identified the man as an FBI agent and said he was in Pakistan as part of a multi-agency, anti-corruption program. The official said the agent appears to have made a mistake and that there's no indication he was trying to carry bullets aboard the plane.

No shit. Beer if fine, but liquors quicker, comrade.
I'm sure when Vlad and Angela broker the "merger", the Russians will finely get some decent beer and Germany will be able to keep the lights on and the cars moving.

You can drink it all at once or stagger it, doesn't matter. Up to you. Just sayin it's going to be a long time before people have a cheap and far too easy excuse to act like an asshole and hide in a bottle.

Oh and wine press grapes aren't going to do too well either. New type of Phylloxera that is incredibly tenacious is tearing ass through vineyards, should be about...everywhere...about now. Should save everyone the trouble of listening to the self-anointed vintner at dinner parties detailing the history of what amounts to a long pee.

Protip: For vodka... I wouldn't be drinking your future fuel source. It's a pain in the ass pushing an car with an empty gas tank when drunk. Much easier if it goes in the tank.

Luckily the larger malthouses in the US (ADM, Briess, Gambrinus, Great Western, etc.) source their grain from N. America. There are hops grown all over the place here in FEMA region X. We'll be OK, fuck the EU. ;-)

I'm saying that easily accessible, cheap alcohol in general is going to get a little harder to make without a couple of key ingredients. Forever.

It's one of the most destructive retail items on the planet and serves zero purpose unless putting it in a gas tank. It's the cause of the majority of social issues, public damages, riots, 2 am fights, spousal beatings, a large percentage of divorce cases, coyote ugly regret, destroys communities, etc. Just ask a cop what 90% of their "social calls" are related to. It's certainly not crack dealers like TV tells everyone, it's most always booze.

Historically it was to make sure people didn't die of scurvy or dysentery because the water was bad in an area, so it was cut with alcohol to kill the bugs in it. Today, anyone can buy a straw filtration device for under 10 dollars and sip straight sewage without getting sick. The technology is old, and old things go the way of the dodo. Alcohol, for drinking, is now officially antiquated thanks to the widely accessible and common water filtration system.

If you need it, learn to use a still or make friends with someone that know what they are doing. There just won't be base materials to provide any level of retail of alcohol at the same scope as given today. This is the last of the summer wine. It sucks for those that do drink. But it really wasn't helping anyone, so take it as the opportunity to have an excuse to go dry for a while (like forever).

In the meanwhile, try the following phrases on for size since everyone will have an excuse soon;

"I don't make enough to drink."

"I don't want to run around town trying to look for bottle of wine for the guests. it simply doesn't exist honey."

First of all, that's just heresy. Second, you vastly underestimate just how many things can be fermented into alcohol. Even if there were no barley or wheat or grapes, there are Himalayan blackberries, plums, apples, and pears growing all over my property and on the surrounding land. There WILL be booze.

You understand it's already been happening. Certain things are just going to be removed fro the menu. Those that can make booze, you are going to be everyone's best friend and charge whatever you feel like. Understand though there is a reason you get to read these news articles from time to time.

Once fuel goes...so does all that cheap, easily accessible booze. Because morons have been making GMO monsters that sit in a bottle, mother nature retailiated at the right time to knock most of the old methods of booze production into the ditch.

Yes there are plenty of other ways to make booze. You could make mead but all the honey bees are dead, or dying. Or you could make carrot liquor, but I willing to bet it'll go down as friendly as a warm V8 on a hot day. Or apple cider, but most of the apple orchards that provide the apples died from a drought a couple years ago.

Point being; most alcohol like Beer and wine, don't count on them being around past the summer. Verdict is out on yeast being aroud as well, there's something strange happening to most of the GMO yeasts used in booze production thanks to all the extra radiation.

I'll wait for that gem to surface after the news agencies actually do their job. But here's some of the science.

mcb.asm.org/content/16/12/7133.full.pdf

Your dick will stop working is the short version. The future is flacid as well as sober. Drink up and game on

No, I just don't drink, people drink around me and I could care less. Personally can't afford it on many levels. And Europe is a beta site for going dry. I suggest everyone watch closely, because that's your future as well.

Maybe the Law of Unintended Consequences is at work. Turns out that using hops in beer making is only a few hundred years old and resulted from a beer recipe monopoly war having to do with the Catholic church. There were many herbs used in the past, some of which were sexual stimulants and/or slightly mind altering. Hops was a replacement herb that is actually bad for men (especially the prostate) due to anti testosterone effects, not to mention that it is sleep inducing (really makes one the life of the party). Some companies are trying to go back to older recipes, I hear, though have not had a chance to try any of these.

Before the Beer Purity Act of 1516, almost all beer was made with something called Gruit, which is a combination of yarrow, bog myrtle, and marsh rosemary. The Protestants were trying to break the Catholic monopoly on beer making and so introduced hopped beer. Pilsner beer was originally made with Henbane, which is psychoactive. The German Beserkers would drink it before battle! (Damn, are we boring these days, or what.)

Hops are good for you and have been used in beer for nearly 1000 years. Not only do they make it tasty, the alpha acids are very destructive to gram-negative bacteria, making them a good preservative. If you're drinking enough beer that the hops are having a deleterious effect on you, you would likely be dead from liver/kidney failure or alcoholic cardiomyopathy.

I will add a little to put a fine point on it. Hops is touted as a possible anti-prostate cancer ingredient. So, for this reason, it can be positive. OTOH, if someone is suffering from BPH, it can make the situation worse. A big factor in BPH is growth stimulated by activation of the estrogen receptors.

What the fuck is with you pussies? Beer and most quality spirits is quintessential to a melodic stress free life style! I'm with the big crazy Viking fucks who ate a shit load of good food, drank wine and spirits and then just puked it all up in a bucket and went back for more. Fucked some who-ores and replayed it all again the next night! But oh my God you little panty wastes where oh where was the tofu? Fuck right off!

Maybe Carlsberg corp owns Baltika, but it's produced in St.Petersburg. That it's not getting in to Ukraine is no surprise.

As for Stoli, it's gonna be fine. Of course most Russians (and eastern europeans in general) know how to make their own moonshine anyway (Samagonka, Schmakovka). Beer isn't generally made at home except for some very weak brew consumed in the summer time.

I wonder when they will understand the that lack of critical thinking and cynicism is what earned them their lovely Western leaders in the first place?

Non sequitur.

Or that repeating that uncritical adulation will, with 100% certainty, earn an encore with their flavor-of-the-week?

Yes, shills will behave like shills, as expected, although I don't understand the point you're trying to make here. Perhaps it could be expressed more clearly in a form other than an ice cream parlor allegory?

There is a lot of smoke and overt human rights abuses behind the Putin regime

Sorry. Don't care. It's not my country, it's not my business. The people there can do what they want. If someone is afflicted with do-gooderism and wants to change the world, that's fine, but not on my dime.

There is a lot of smoke and overt human rights abuses behind the Vichy DC regime that have gone unremarked only because the USG and much of Europe have gone full-on Orwell.

Fixed it for you.

Russia is in grave danger of a lot of unnecessary wars and a President-for-Life.

That didn't end well with the Tsars. It didn't end well with the Premiers. It wont end well here.

Don't care. Don't care. Don't care.

But... they see the black hats. So the dazed and confused masses assume whomever the black hats are fighting must wear a white hat.

Well, most people believe what they're led to believe, especially when the official narrative is the only exposure they receive for any given event.

What I find disheartening, yet fascinating nonetheless, is the number of intelligent people who are still unable to break free of the Cold War programming they've been indoctrinated with their entire lives. These are people who understand that the Federal Reserve is bullshit, the War On Drugs® is bullshit, the War On Terra® is bullshit, the PetroDollar is bullshit, the bailout of the TBTF banks is bullshit, the Iranian nuclear scare is bullshit, MERS (the mortgage scam, not the disease) is bullshit, John Corzine unimprisoned is bullshit, the economic "recovery" is bullshit, the whole left/right liberal/conservative democrat/republican paradigm is bullshit, and the news media are bullshit.

Yet as soon as they see or hear the word "Russia", they react at a gut level, without thinking, as if to a post hypnotic suggestion. The word is "Russia", but the autonomic perception is one or more of USSR, the Soviet Union, the reds, the commies, totalitarian dictatorship, Stalin, the bad guys, the enemy, perhaps even Hitler. It's really amazing how it continues to cloud their thinking. The USSR hasn't existed for decades, yet somehow they still cling to it.

Every time the next big threat has come around (the terrists, Saddam Hussein, the financial meltdown, imaginary Iranian nukes, et cetera), I've managed to learn something new. Usually this includes the realization that a long held belief has been wrong the whole time. Now that the threat du jour is The New Soviet Empire (bold italics to make it scary), I've learned a few more things, such as

1) some people still don't see a difference between Russia and the Soviet Union,

2) after Lenin's death, a Russian didn't lead the Soviet Union until Yuri Andropov in 1982,

3) the Bolsheviks were very afraid of, and brutally suppressed, any form of nationalism, especially Russian nationalism,

4) Stalin, a Georgian, forcibly relocated huge numbers of Russians to the Ukraine,

5) the holodomor was imposed not only on Ukrainians, but Russians and Kazakhs as well, and

6) Crimea was a part of Russia until Nikita Krushchev, a Ukrainian, took it from Russia and gave it to the Ukraine.

This has allowed me to understand how the Russians might view the overthrow of the Ukrainian government and the consequences that flowed from it.

Ordinarily, such an event would not be any of my business, except my country is ruled by the regime in Vichy DC, whose subterfuge and treachery were the direct cause of the overthrow. As their stupidity and arrogance are likely, once again, to make things worse for this country and others, it has become my business.

As far as I'm concerned, the adolescents running Vichy DC are more of a threat to the US and the rest of the world than is Putin. My judgement of Putin is based solely on his actions. By thwarting a US attack on Syria, he has saved American lives, as well as the lives of Syrians and others. By convincing Syria to give up its chemical weapons, he probably saved more people from grisly deaths. As recent events in eastern Ukraine and Odessa demonstrate, by facilitating a referendum which allowed the people of Crimea to choose peacefully whether or not to reunite with Russia, he has no doubt saved even more lives.

These actions lead me to believe that, in this circumstance and up to this point, Putin is no villain. Don't tell me about what the Soviets did before Putin was even born. It's irrelevant in this situation. I don't care about the politics, legal system, or internal affairs of Russia. I just don't care. I don't care about Pussy Riot. Fuck Pussy Riot.

So whenever I see someone conflating Russia with the USSR, I can only conclude that they are a victim of inescapable lifelong propaganda, or a shill. When I see someone chiming in to remind us all that "Putin is bad bad bad", again I can only conclude the same. When I see someone pointing out that "there are no good guys here, so Putin deserves no respect", their almost transparent subtlety leads me to believe that they are a shill.

The costs Russia is being burdened by are being felt in the West far more than in Russia. Who is going to buy all of those expensive German and Italian cars? Who is going to buy the Champagne? Who is going to provide the caviar and the suasages?

Two German engineers flew over to look at a Nylon fiber process similar to theirs that they were having problems with. I met them at the airport around midnight and gave them a lift to the Holiday Inn. On the way we stopped at a Zippy Mart and they got a 6-pack of Bud to share to take the edge off. I had visited them in Germany and knew they were serious beer drinkers. I never drank Budweiser before so I couldn't warn them about it. They both had splitting headaches the next morning and demanded to know what the hell was in that "scheiss bier".

A surfactant would make the head retention worse or non-existent. Surfactants break down surface tension. Rice and corn are adjuncts used to lighten the color and flavor of the beer. Homebrewers use both along with oats, wheat and roasted and kilned barley for flavor and body adjustment. For all you hipsters out there; Corona has a lot of corn in it.

All I can say is that anyone who wakes up with a headache from two or three Buds is a serious lightweight.

Natural carbonation is pretty rare commercially, even at the craft and micro-brew levels. It is true that commercial brewers tend to do everything possible to speed production, but by definition a lager/pilsner (Bud, Miller, Coors, Heineken, etc.) takes time and has to be stored cold for 1-3 months or more for the yeast to do their jobs properly.

Say what you will about BMC and the like, but their ability to produce the volume they do with the product consistency that they acheive is just about astonishing. Bud with improper yeast, like Brett, or other infection would be incredibly unlikely.

I toured the Olympia brewery a few years before Miller closed it down, and that place was cleaner than any hospital or Dr.'s office I've ever seen. It was spotless from floor to ceiling.

Headaches result of chemicals in beer not allowed in Germany maybe? Bischoff bier is my favorite when I can get ahold of it. Cheers, Prosit, Skål and Kippis and in all the other languages I don't know.

I make my own, and it tastes as good or better than nearly anything I can buy, and for a lot less $$. About the only beer I buy any more is either particularly good ones that I can't duplicate (Like Walking Man Old Stumblefoot, or Fort George NorthVII) or when I'm looking for one to clone.

The Krokidil mention is especially interesting. Don't hear much about it, but it's some nasty shit. A truly zombie drug if there ever was one. Just can't wait until it shows up stateside in mass. Makes meth look like baby aspirin.

"Selfies" will become much more interesting, yet somehow slightly more honest, as what is inside makes its way to the outside with some very real and un intended results.
"Chive" will have to change its slogan to 'Krok Calm and Rot On.'....

Krokodil is often made in laboratories, and quite pure when it is done right.Of course, there are low-class people who make and buy bad stuff, but anyone with any money (Russian middle class kids and such) can easily buy near-pharmaceutical grade deso in any Russian city.

It's not something that will ever come to the US becasue it uses codeine as a starting material... easier and cheaper to just buy good ol' heroin... in the US, anyways.

While it is an opiate, and quite addictive, it certainly does NOT "make meth look like baby aspirin", unless you still believe the old 90s media telling us about people hemorraging blood from the eyes, nostrils, and skin pores after using methcathinone, or if you're still looking for that explosion of deformed insane "crack babies" from the 80s...

Yesterday I bought (as I thought) Russian beer Tri Medvedya (Three bears). Later I read in tiny letters that it was made by Heineken.In near future I will try not to buy any german/american/ukranian/polish/japan products.

Middle-class Russian junkies buy old fashioned heroin... they also can buy extremely pure "krokodil", which is preferred by some.

We're talking the difference between crystal meth and bathtub crank.... of course, you are entitled to enjoy the scarey tales, tabloids, and sensationalist tv, if you choose to believe that sort of thing.

At least we have PLENTY OF BEER in the Good ol' U.S. of A. We'll never have to worry about that as a problem even if it keeps going up in price!!!

While you're enjoying your beer tonight read this thoughtful review of someone who knows the man and can tell you that he's more about free markets than anyone we have in the U.S., Israel, or England for certain...

Don't forget that "we" 'elected' the equivelent of a KGB colonel in the form of George HW Bush, who had been director of the CIA. Imagine what his true charcter is. People here fear the police, even when they are innocently going about their business. With 70000 SWAT raids per year in the US, tell me which country is a police state.

DAMN IT! , something needs to be done when the situation is so serious in the Ukraine that Beer sales are getting affected!

Additional: When is the US going to declare a war on weather patterns, it seems to be disrupting profits all over the world with its completely unpredictable appearances everywhere. Once upon a time there were seasons, winter was one of them and companies had CEO's who were intelligent enough to look at a calender and work out when that terrorist loving winter would turn up and plan for it, but no longer, so we must have a war on weather, well, winter anyhow, summer could be let of with a warning for the time being as long as it does not start affecting sales.