All Posts (93)

Oil prices/ revenues: Through the month, oil prices were affected by the burgeoning trade war between the US and China that might affect global oil demand, the US-Iran war of words, and the attack on the Saudi oil tanker in the Red Sea. At month-end, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for September delivery rose 31 cents to settle at $69.61 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent for September added 61 cents to end the session at $74.54 a barrel on the…

1) Iran: Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has sent a list of demands to France, Germany and Britain as its price for staying in the nuclear accord, while vowing not to give in to growing U.S. pressure to curb its oil sales. Iran has said if it cannot reap any economic benefits from remaining in the deal, which traded sanctions relief for curbing the Iranian nuclear program, then it would have little incentive to comply with its terms and would significantly ramp up uranium…

1) OPEC ministerial (production increase accepted): On 22 June, OPEC ministers announced a deal that will increase oil supplies from the producer group, which has been capping output in order to balance the market and boost prices for the last 18 months. However, no firm figures relating to production increase were announced nor was it indicated how the increases would be allocated among members.The agreement came after a week of tense negotiation at OPEC's…

1) Oil prices: The oil ministers of Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Russia met in St Petersburg on 25 May to review the OPEC and non-OPEC decision to cut production that has been in place for 17 months. This finally brought Brent prices to just over $80/barrel in mid-May following the Trump announcement of US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear agreement. Prices had risen in spite of a record US oil production of 10.3 mbd in February. By 25 May, US rig count had gone to 859, the…

1) President Trump withdraws the US from the Iran nuclear agreement: On 8 May, President Donald Trump finally withdrew the US from the nuclear agreement that his predecessor, along with other world powers, had signed with Iran in January 2016. Iran had then agreed to end its nuclear weapons programme in return for the lifting of economic sanctions on oil sales, trade and financial transactions that had crippled its economy and had made it a pariah in regional and world…

1) President Trump on OPEC: Donald Trump launched an attack on OPEC on 20 April for pushing oil markets to the highest level since 2014, saying that crude prices have been driven up “artificially” by the cartel. The US president’s statement, made in one of his customary early morning tweets, followed comments by Saudi Arabia’s energy minister that the world economy could cope with higher oil prices, as crude approached $75 a barrel.

1) US-led air attacks on Syria: US forces, backed by France and the UK, launched air attacks on selected targets in Syria in the early hours of 14 April in response to what was described as a chemical weapons attack on civilians in the town of Douma in East Ghouta, a week earlier, that was then under assault by Syrian government forces. Reports of these attacks, backed by gruesome photographs of seriously injured children shown on global media (with the caption “unconfirmed…

On March 20, Minister of External Affairs Sushma Swaraj informed the Rajya Sabha that the 39 Indian workers who had been in the custody of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) since June 2014 were dead. This announcement ended four years of hope in the hearts of family members that their loved ones still lived, a hope that had survived in spite of persistent reports of ISIS’s intolerance and brutality and…

1. Oil prices: Oil prices rose on 23 March, pushed up by Saudi statements that OPEC and Russian led production curbs that were introduced in 2017 will need to be extended into 2019 in order to tighten the market. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $65.09 a barrel, up 79 cents, or 1.2 percent, from their previous close. Brent crude futures were at $69.64 per barrel, up 73 cents, or 1.1 percent.

1. Saudi Arabia opts for solar power: On 29 March, Softbank and Saudi Arabia reached an agreement to launch a massive solar power project, a 200 gigawatt solar initiative. This is four times the solar capacity in the United States and four times China’s annual pace of solar power expansion. As of the end of 2016, the world as a whole had only installed 303 gigawatts of total solar photovoltaic capacity.

1. Syria: Turkish armed forces, backed by their Syrian opposition allies, the Free Syrian Army (FSA), entered Syria on 20 January, and a month later were making slow progress in their attempt to take the northern Syrian town of Afrin from the Kurds under the mis-named “Operation Olive Branch”. At least 31 Turkish soldiers have been killed and several hundred injured, and scores of battle vehicles destroyed. Its Kurdish enemies are already gleefully referring to the campaign…

1. Oil prices: Oil prices rose on 26 February, hitting three-weeks high, supported by strong U.S. demand and comments from Saudi Arabia that it would continue to curb production in line with OPEC-led efforts. Brent crude rose 19 cents to settle at $67.50 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures rose 36 cents to settle at $63.91 a barrel, after hitting a 20-day high of $64.24.

Prices were supported by Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih, who said on 24 February…

After his extensive interactions with West Asian countries, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Qatar, in 2015-16, and two meetings with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Prime Minister Narendra Modi embarked on his second tour of West Asia on 9-12 February, which took him to Jordan, Palestine, the UAE and Oman. After a quick stopover in Amman, Modi went on a stand-alone visit to Palestine, emphasising that India has “de-hyphenated” its ties with Israel and Palestine and will interact…

1) Syria: US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson announced on 17 January that US forces, numbering about 2000, would remain in Syria. He said this was “crucial to our national defence” and mentioned three reasons: security of Israel; preventing the re-emergence of ISIS, and “expelling malicious Iranian influence” and preventing it from dominating the Middle East. This proposal has evoked sharp criticism from Stephen Kinzer, formerly of the New York Times, who said Tillerson’s…

The fall in the value of the dollar has boosted oil prices: on 23 January, Brent crude traded at $69.41 a barrel, up 0.54 percent, while WTI crude was at $63.89, up 0.5 percent. Later, on 29 January, WTI crude traded above $66 a barrel, the highest since December 2014. Thanks to shale oil, US crude oil production is poised to break records by surpassing 10m barrels a day in 2018. The country’s net imports of crude oil and petroleum products fell below 2.5m b/d late last year, the lowest…

1) Saudi economy: On 1 January, Saudi Arabia announced a SR 978 billion ($ 261 billion) budget for 2018, describing it as the largest budget in its history in terms of spending.

The budget, which in the past has been 90 percent dependent on oil revenues, is this year not more than 50 percent based on revenue from oil. The remainder is 30 percent from non-oil revenues, 12 percent from public debt and 8 percent from government…

At year-end, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures settled at $60.42, the highest close since June 2015. Brent crude futures were at $66.62 a barrel, after briefly crossing $ 67. This 17 percent rise in Brent prices was supported by ongoing supply cuts by OPEC and Russia as well as strong demand from China.

WTI prices were supported by data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration late on 28 December showing that domestic oil production declined last week to 9.75 million…

1. Iran: On 14 December, the US defence department displayed at a hangar at a joint base at Anacosta-Bolling, Washington, three intact Iranian weapon systems and debris from a fourth, apparently recovered from the battlefields of West Asia. Recalling President Trump’s Iran strategy announced in October, the department spokesperson said these missiles were proof of Iran’s malicious strategy, specifically “evidence of Iranian weapons proliferation in violation of U.N. Security…

1) US President Trump recognises Jerusalem as Israel’s capital: On 6 December, US President Donald Trump announced that the United States would recognise Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and that the US Embassy would be moving to that city. He added that he still supported a two-state solution and this recognition would not affect the final status of the city to be negotiated between Israelis and Palestinians as part of their peace agreement. Trump thus fulfilled his…

Oil prices moved up on 15 December, lifted by the Forties pipeline outage in the North Sea and ongoing OPEC-led production cuts, although rising output from the United States kept a lid on markets.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $57.28 a barrel, up 26 cents, or 0.5 percent, from their last settlement. Brent crude futures were at $63.47 a barrel, up 16 cents, or 0.25 percent, from their previous close. The ongoing outage of the Forties pipeline, which carries…

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About the Author

Ambassador Talmiz Ahmed

Former Ambassador of India to Saudia Arabia, Oman and UAE, monitors developments in the West Asian region.

Ambassador Talmiz Ahmad joined the Indian Foreign Service in 1974. Early in his career, he was posted in a number of West Asian countries such as Kuwait, Iraq and Yemen and later, between 1987 and 1990, he was Consul General in Jeddah. He also held positions in the Indian missions in New York, London and Pretoria. He served as Indian Ambassador to Saudi Arabia (2000-03; 2010-11); Oman (2003-04), and the UAE (2007-10). He was also Additional Secretary for International Cooperation in the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas in 2004-06. In July 2011, the Saudi Government conferred on him the King Abdul Aziz Medal First Class for his contribution to the promotion of Indo – Saudi relations. After retirement from the Foreign Service in 2011, he worked in the corporate sector in Dubai for three years. He is now a full-time academic and holds the Ram Sathe Chair for International Studies, Symbiosis International University. He has published three books: Reform in the Arab World: External Influences and Regional Debates (2005), Children of Abraham at War: the Clash of Messianic Militarisms (2010), and The Islamist Challenge in West Asia: Doctrinal and Political Competitions after the Arab Spring (2013). He writes and lectures frequently on Political Islam, the politics and economics of West Asia and the Indian Ocean and energy security issues.