Defense Ministry experts estimate that in a war with Iran and Hezbollah, some 200 Israeli civilians will die. If Syria joins the war as well, the number of fatalities could rise to 300.

A year ago Defense Minister Ehud Barak said in an interview with Army Radio that in a war with Iran "far fewer than 500 [Israeli civilians] would die." Barak downplayed the threat and said predictions of thousands or tens of thousands of dead civilians were "hysterical" and groundless.

The forecasts, recently presented to IDF officers and government leaders, were made by the defense establishment's research operations experts. They are based on the number of missiles and rockets the enemy has, data accumulated in the wake of previous wars, and preparedness in the Israeli home front.

The predictions do not claim to be precise but to provide a general picture, which would be affected by the actual developments.

Western research institutes have published studies saying Iran has several hundred long-range Shahab missiles of various models capable of hitting targets in Israel.

The assumption here is that even if Israel attacks the Iranian nuclear facilities and Tehran strikes back, it will not use its entire missile reservoir. Some of the missiles will fail to launch or will be hit on the ground by the Israeli Air Force. Others will miss and fall in open areas.

However, a few dozen missiles will presumably hit population concentrations, most likely in the Dan region.

In the Gulf War of 1991 the IDF's research operations experts estimated three civilians would be killed by every Iraqi missile. Ultimately 40 Scud missiles were fired and one man was killed by a direct hit.

Iran is believed to have more advanced missiles than Iraq had. But the relatively low fatality estimate is also a function of the Israeli public's behavior and its level of preparedness.

In the 2006 Second Lebanon War it emerged that when the public's obedience to instructions was relatively high, the number of casualties was low. The Katyusha shells from Lebanon killed people who were outside or in unprotected areas inside their homes, as opposed to inside a shelter or protected space.

Construction in the center of Israel is not very dense. The 1950s construction laws required buildings to have a concrete support, which reduces the danger of complete collapse. The high number of protected spaces and shelters could also reduce the number of casualties, the experts say.

Another critical factor in preventing casualties is the time between the alert and the missile's landing. The American X-band radar can give a 15-minute alert before an Iranian missile is expected to land in the center of the country, a reasonable time to prepare.

On the basis of these components, the experts calculated an estimate of less than one fatality for every ballistic missile. In addition, Hezbollah has not only short and medium-range Katyusha rockets but dozens or hundreds of relatively accurate M-600 rockets, which could strike the center of the country. Hezbollah also has an estimated 60,000 rockets.

In a possible confrontation with Hezbollah, much depends on the Air Force and intelligence community's ability to strike the long-range rockets on the ground before they are launched. In the Second Lebanon War, the IDF struck dozens of Hezbollah operatives' homes in Lebanon on the first night of the war, destroying most of the organization's medium-range rockets before they were used. The experts say this would be harder to do next time.

Some 4,200 rockets, mostly Katyushas, were fired at Israel's north, killing 54 people, 42 of them civilians. The estimate, based on the past war, says one civilian will be killed for every 80 rockets from Lebanon.

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Just like the Japanese attack on US ships docked at Pearl Harbor in
1941. Total destruction, resulting in complete incapacitation of the
enemy in that region. Unfortunately we all know how the rest of the war
went.

Netanyahu is perfectly correct. Imagine if Israel had not bombed Osirak
(against American & European objections), those Scuds that hit
Israel in the Gulf War in 1991 would have had Nuclear warheads on them.
And the Ayatollahs are 100X more fanatical & extreme than Saddam
ever was ! And who benefitted the most from Osirak attack ? Obviously
America, they were able to throw Saddam out from Kuwait & invade
Iraq easily. If Saddam had a few nukes, he would have been the Emperor
of the Middle-East by now !

Better high explosive now than nuclear warheads later. One can live with
the former, but the land will be contaminated after the latter. Nip the
Ayatollahs in the bud ! Iran already has enough 20% enriched Uranium for
4 nukes (just 1 is enough to wipe out Israel). Attack Iran now !

America never came to help during WWII despite knowing millions of Jews
were being exterminated., they only entered the war when Japan attacked
them. America talked peace when Saddam was building Osirak reactor, but
after Israel did the hard work, was able to invade & take over Iraq
easily. America is 10,000 miles from Iran, Israel is next door. America
is more worried about their economy, Israel their survival. Israel - do
what has to be done....before its too late.....Attack NOW !

P5.1 & Ashton are fooling Israel. Moscow was supposed to be the
final talks, but now it seems to be getting extended indefinitely. By
the time these P5.1 scoundrels finish their "meetings,
consultations, expert-level, deputy-level, confidence building measures,
yada yada" and other such time-wasting tactics, mushrooms clouds
will be rising over Tel Aviv and Israel. The Iranian centrifuges are
spinning non-stop and nuke work is going on at breakneck speed. The Zone
of Immunity has almost been reached. Its time for Israel to act, before
its too late. Obama, the Europeans and Ashton can jump into the nearest sewer.

quickly which is optimal and the idea, but uncertain. If Israel can roll
up Hezbollah up to the Litani in 72 hours, maybe. And that just refers
to Hezbollah and its missiles and their ability to launch them. The
ground war won't be a problem for the IDF, but the underground part is
dicey. No doubt that there are now all kinds of interesting IDF systems
for use underground.

the terror state of iran and its terror proxies refuse to give up their
goal to acquire nuclear weapons. they refuse to renounce terror. these
are psychopaths who are willing to sacrifice many of their own people in
order to murder jews. indeed, they slaughter their own people, as we saw
during the uprising in iran and the current slaughter in syria. thus
israel has no choice in this matter. the enemy has made the choice for israel.

That shows that the Israeli Government cares for their people, I agree,
Iran, has made the choice for Israel, Iran is becoming stronger each day
with Russia's help, Israel, must go it along America has become weak,
and with a weak President [ Obama ] and cannot depend on America, G-d
will be with you as it is written. I pray for Israel every day, I love
Israel, as i'm excited to visit each year, I'm not Israeli,
"but" my wife is.

I never bought the apocalyptic scenarios of tens of thousands of rockets
raining down on Israel from three directions. All the sides involved
(Israel, Hezbollah, and Iran) had an interest in exaggerating Iran's and
Hezbollah's military power. Israel wanted to substantiate the
existential threat, and the other two wanted to look invincible to their
followers. Actually the deterrent to Israel is world public opinion and
the sheer fruitlessness of attacking Iran.

If Israel is attacked it must respond attacking their military
facilities first, kill all the important polictical decision makers
then, and third destroy all of their infrastructure (water, electicity,
waste, etc) so the whole country wiill suffer and they will rebel
against their goverments. If all of these does not work and casualities
get bigger in Israel so Israel should wipe out of the map these
countries together with their population and not wait until it happen to
Israel.

Syria's FM explicitly said that in the event of an outside attack on
Syria that they would use chemical weapons against the attacker. I
strongly strongly doubt that the 300 estimate takes the FM's promise
into account. While I do not think there is a better solution than
attack if Syria were to collapse or try to transfer the wepaons, citing
a esitmate of 300 is almost a come-on for an attack. The repercussions
should be taken much more seriously, even if in the end the attack must
take place either way.

allows the US to handle Iran. I just don't think Israel has the
capability with small planes to do little more than light damage to
Iranian nuclear capability. With Hezbollah I can only hope that Israel
has nape, daisy cutters and a lot of cheap rockets of their own. I
think the sanctions have a chance of rotting Iran frm within and they
need to be given a chance.

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