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Edmonton Oilers' over-reliance on a handful of goal scorers an unnerving trend in 2018-19

Bruce McCurdy, Edmonton Journal

Published: December 5, 2018 - 5:23 PM

Game Day 28: Oilers at Blues

Not to say that the Edmonton Oilers have struggled to score, but their provincial rival Calgary Flames scored as many goals (9) in a single game last night as the Oilers have tallied over their last five contests combined.

Indeed, lack of offence is threatening to become the story of the season for the northern Alberta club, this despite the presence of two time scoring champion Connor McDavid. (And at least today we can talk about the presence of #97 rather than his absence, as he returns to action in St. Louis after being in sick bay on Monday night.) But it’s a sorry fact that his team has scored more than 2 measly goals just four times in its last 14 games and more than 3 just twice. Only some stellar netminding from Mikko Koskinen has allowed them to milk 5 wins and 11 points over that span. That hasn’t stopped the Oil from backsliding in the standings, currently ranking in 6th place in the Pacific Division and 11th in the Western Conference. Just three points out of a playoff berth, mind, but trending in the wrong direction.

The team has played 27 games, exactly a third of the season give or take a period. For many seasons I have used this milestone-of-sorts as a time to review and project individual player performance. It’s enough of a sample size to give us a good idea of who is trending well and who isn’t, and to make simple projections based on the most basic of offensive stats: goals, assists, points.

No magic to our boxcar “formula”, which is simply results through 27 games, times three. These are not true projections, they are simply an extension of what the individual players (minimum 14 GP) are on pace for at this moment in time. We’ll give each player a sick day rather than rounding a Game 82 component.

Forwards

The phenomenal Connor McDavid has, of course, already taken a sick day, missing the Oilers’ most recent game in Dallas, his first absence in three seasons. Somewhat alarming to revisit these comments from our equivalent post one year ago today, at which time he led the team with 11-21-32 in 27 games: “Connor McDavid has been fighting off an illness of some description that has caused him to miss a number of practices (including yesterday’s) but no games to this point. His production is very similar to this point a year ago, when he had 11-23-34.” A similar narrative has emerged this season: McDavid was first reported to be fighting an illness on a road trip to Nashville and Chicago in late October, then there were further whispers in mid-November, now an actual missed game. Over that same interval his production has slowed, from 21 points in his first 13 games to “just” a point a game in his second 13.

Leon Draisaitl is off to a much more productive start than one year ago, when he was dogged by an early-season concussion that sidelined him for 4 games and limited his effectiveness for a while thereafter. Over the calendar year since Game 27 last season, Leon has scored 30-51-81 in 82 games, suggesting his current 90-point pace might well be sustainable.

The third member of the big three, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, has had a good start and is on pace for career highs in assists and points. The elite point scoring stops there, though wingers Alex Chiasson and Drake Caggiula are at least producing on the goal scoring front. The rest of the gang is mired in the range of 0-2 goals over a two-month span, nowhere near good enough. Of particular note is the fall from grace of holdovers Milan Lucic, who was 5-14-19 at this point one season ago, and Zack Kassian who had 9 points this time a year ago, just 1 lonely point this season. Put another way, in the 82 games over the last 365 days Lucic has produced 6-14-20 with an ugly plus/minus of dash-25; Kassian 6-5-11, -17. The two veteran wingers find themselves near the bottom of the roster on a line that has at least succeeded in limiting the damage while producing zero offence.

Defencemen

A recent spurt by Oscar Klefbom has put the smooth Swede on pace to be the first Oilers blueliner to hit the 40-point mark since Sheldon Souray and Tom Gilbert both turned the trick a decade ago, in 2008-09. Of the rest, Adam Larsson doesn’t get Klefbom’s powerplay time, but has found a way to chip in at evens. Last year’s team leader Darnell Nurse had 5 points through 10 games but just 1 since.

Goal

No tables here, since the major stats are measured by percentages. Those have been good for Mikko Koskinen (.708 points percentage, 2.23 goals-against average, .925 save percentage in 13 appearances), poor for incumbent Cam Talbot (.367 Pts%, 3.29 GAA, .889 Sv% in 15 GP). It took awhile to sort out the pecking order, but obviously the hope is that Koskinen will continue to play well and that Talbot will turn his own game around.

Team performance

The Oilers are 2 wins and 4 points better than last year’s 11-14-2 mark, but they have improved their goal differential by just 1 goal, scoring 7 fewer and allowing 8 fewer than last year’s +78/-91. This against the context of a higher-scoring league which is averaging north of 3 goals per game for the first time in over a decade. After ranking a dismal 29th overall in goals against per game at this point a year ago, the Oilers rank 15th overall, bang on the league average at 3.07; but their goals scored ranking has plummeted from 18th to a lowly 26th at just 2.63.

The club continues to hold its own in flow of play, generating 51.5% of the shots on goal at 5v5, but just 46% of the actual goals. This is mostly due to a crummy shooting percentage just north of 6%, third worst in the entire league. That serious lack of finishing ability stands out as the club’s Achilles heel through the “first period” of the 2018-19 season.

As for depth scoring, a year ago the Oilers had 9 players with at least 4 goals at this point and a tenth with 3. This year just 5 Oilers have more than 2 goals! This in a league with 349 players who have scored at least 3 times, an average north of eleven sucvh players per team. Calgary as one example has fourteen. Edmonton, just five. It’s a problem.

Tonight’s line-up

The big news is of course the return of McDavid, who will be reunited on Edmonton’s one true scoring line which has produced over 50% of the club’s goals to this point and fully 70% (37/53) of those produced by tonight’s forward group.

Drake Caggiula is out of the line-up with a “minor hand injury”, opening up a spot in the top six for Jujhar Khaira who just lit the lamp for the first time in 9 months. Ryan Spooner also returns, where he will centre Patrick Russell and Ty Rattie in the continuing absence of waiver pick-up Valentin Zykov. The Lucic-Brodziak-Kassian line was listed as the fourth line in practice yesterday, though (ice) time will tell if that is fantasy or reality.

The defence returns to its usual six-man structure, with emergency fill-in Chris Wideman back in the press box along with little-used Jason Garrison.

Cam Talbot returns to the net, still in search of his 100th win as an Oiler. Seventh time lucky? Coach Ken Hitchcock, who will never be accused of not talking a good game, takes the pragamatic approach that “When you have faith in both guys like I do, both guys have got to play.” Time for Talbot to start repaying that faith, even as this will be just his second start under the new bench boss. The stopper is listed at 6’4 but in the eyes of this old goalie he hasn’t looked “big in the net”, and I don’t think that’s just because I’ve been comparing him to the towering Koskinen. Fact is he’s allowed 3+ goals in all six of those losses, and with the Oilers’ popgun offence that has proven to be a recipe for defeat.

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