Title: Drought and immunity determine the intensity of West Nile virus epidemics and climate change impacts

Abstract

The effect of global climate change on infectious disease remains hotly debated because multiple extrinsic and intrinsic drivers interact to influence transmission dynamics in nonlinear ways. The dominant drivers of widespread pathogens, like West Nile virus, can be challenging to identify due to regional variability in vector and host ecology, with past studies producing disparate findings. Here, we used analyses at national and state scales to examine a suite of climatic and intrinsic drivers of continental-scale West Nile virus epidemics, including an empirically derived mechanistic relationship between temperature and transmission potential that accounts for spatial variability in vectors. We found that drought was the primary climatic driver of increased West Nile virus epidemics, rather than within-season or winter temperatures, or precipitation independently. Local-scale data from one region suggested drought increased epidemics via changes in mosquito infection prevalence rather than mosquito abundance. In addition, human acquired immunity following regional epidemics limited subsequent transmission in many states. We show that over the next 30 years, increased drought severity from climate change could triple West Nile virus cases, but only in regions with low human immunity. Lastly, these results illustrate how changes in drought severity can alter the transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases.

@article{osti_1344995,
title = {Drought and immunity determine the intensity of West Nile virus epidemics and climate change impacts},
author = {Paull, Sara H. and Horton, Daniel E. and Ashfaq, Moetasim and Rastogi, Deeksha and Kramer, Laura D. and Diffenbaugh, Noah S. and Kilpatrick, A. Marm},
abstractNote = {The effect of global climate change on infectious disease remains hotly debated because multiple extrinsic and intrinsic drivers interact to influence transmission dynamics in nonlinear ways. The dominant drivers of widespread pathogens, like West Nile virus, can be challenging to identify due to regional variability in vector and host ecology, with past studies producing disparate findings. Here, we used analyses at national and state scales to examine a suite of climatic and intrinsic drivers of continental-scale West Nile virus epidemics, including an empirically derived mechanistic relationship between temperature and transmission potential that accounts for spatial variability in vectors. We found that drought was the primary climatic driver of increased West Nile virus epidemics, rather than within-season or winter temperatures, or precipitation independently. Local-scale data from one region suggested drought increased epidemics via changes in mosquito infection prevalence rather than mosquito abundance. In addition, human acquired immunity following regional epidemics limited subsequent transmission in many states. We show that over the next 30 years, increased drought severity from climate change could triple West Nile virus cases, but only in regions with low human immunity. Lastly, these results illustrate how changes in drought severity can alter the transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases.},
doi = {10.1098/rspb.2016.2078},
journal = {Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences},
number = 1848,
volume = 284,
place = {United States},
year = {Wed Feb 08 00:00:00 EST 2017},
month = {Wed Feb 08 00:00:00 EST 2017}
}

The West Nile virus strain Kunjin virus (WNV{sub KUN}) NS4A protein is a multifunctional protein involved in many aspects of the virus life-cycle and is a major component of the WNV{sub KUN} replication complex (RC). Previously we identified a conserved region in the C-terminus of NS4A regulating proteolytic processing and RC assembly, and now investigate key conserved residues in the N-terminus of NS4A and their contribution to WNV{sub KUN} replication. Mutation of P13 completely ablated replication, whereas, mutation of P48 and D49, near the first transmembrane helix, and G66 within the helix, showed variable defects in replication, virion secretion andmore » membrane proliferation. Intriguingly, the P48 and G66 NS4A mutants resulted in specific proteasome depletion of NS4A that could in part be rescued with a proteasome inhibitor. Our results suggest that the N-terminus of NS4A contributes to correct folding and stability, essential for facilitating the essential roles of NS4A during replication. - Highlights: • Mutation of Proline13 of the WNV NS4A protein is lethal to replication. • 1st TMB helix of NS4A contributes to protein stability and membrane remodelling. • Unstable mutants of NS4A can be rescued with a proteasome inhibitor. • This study (and of others) contributes to a functional mapping of the NS4A protein.« less