August 31. Press review. Karimov Schrodinger

Official Tashkent ignores the reports of the death of the President of Uzbekistan Islam Karimov. The first of the death of the head of state announced the evening of 29 August, Russian news Agency «Fergana», which had previously stated that Karimov that day suffered a stroke.

According to the «Fergana», 78-year-old President of Uzbekistan has died in hospital on 29 August between 13 and 14 hours local time. Information about the death of Islam Karimov later confirmed in the air of Russian TV channel «Rain» the President of the Association «human Rights in Central Asia» Nadezhda Atayeva. She said she learned about it from two different sources in law enforcement and the medical community in Uzbekistan.

Employee Central Asian branch of the international human rights organization HumanRightsWatch Steve Swerdlow, citing its own sources in Tashkent, said that the death of President Karimov were secretly notified employees of the interior Ministry of Uzbekistan.

At the same time, the press Secretary of the President of Russia Dmitry Peskov not confirmed the information about the death of Islam Karimov. It is echoed by the Interfax and RIA news, citing its own sources, reported that doctors assess the condition of the President of Uzbekistan as a stable.

We also know that in Tashkent immediately flew doctors from Moscow and their colleague from Israel. According to Atayeva, in the organization of emergency medical aid to Karimov has involved the active participation of Russian billionaire Alisher Usmanov. The human rights activist does not exclude that the oligarchic circles have already joined the fight on the lobbying potential successors to Islam Karimov. The most likely of them experts call the current Prime Minister of the Republic Shavkat Mirziyaev.

Chief editor of «Fergana» Daniil Kislov said that the message about the death of the President of Uzbekistan Islam Karimov hosted on the Agency’s website, authentically. «I’m responsible for this. And offer to officials of Uzbekistan — the government, the press service of the office of the President — just post a medical report on his illness or to show Islam Karimov alive in the hospital,» — said Kislov.

Representatives of the Uzbek opposition claim that the cause of the stroke Karimov became excessive consumption of vodka and other strong drinks. According to them, the President is actively rooting for athletes at the Olympic games in Rio de Janeiro, Igor Kozlov writes in the article «Journalists need to show living Islam Karimov or to officially announce his death» in the newspaper «Facts and comments».

Regardless of the actual state of health of the President of Uzbekistan Islam Karimov, we can already conclude that his era in the life of this Central Asian country has come to an end.

At the end of the Soviet period, Karimov began to lead Uzbekistan, and for 27 years he carried out his functions with sufficient rigidity. In the first half of the 1990s, he even established himself as a reformer, something he managed to do in an economic sense. However, the reforms were quickly halted, and the country began the formation of a rigid vertical of power, focused on one person.

Karimov from the beginning of his leadership of the country has taken a strong stand against the Islamic radicals. Their revolt in Andijan in 2005, was brutally suppressed. In the future, the Islamists were driven out of the country or gone into very deep hiding. Only in the Ferghana valley they are, to some extent, retain its influence, but at the moment it does not manifest itself.

Karimov managed to create the most militarily strong country in Central Asia that is a powerful argument in a rather complex relationship with its neighbors. With Tajikistan since 1992, no aviation and railway are often interrupted. Periodically Tashkent blocked the gas to Dushanbe. Kyrgyzstan recently it almost came to armed conflict over the same edge vertices.

Note also a certain messianism, often coming from the Uzbek capital. Ancient history hailed, from Sogdiana to the campaigns of Timur. It faces the Turkish pan-Turkism with the attempts of Uzbek dominance and occupation of a position of elder brother in respect, at least, Turkic neighbors.

All this is now subjected to the test. In a fairly closed Uzbek authorities to understand the main driving forces in the changes that will occur only in large strokes.

In the first place. Regardless of the actual state of health of Karimov, it is clear that the levers of power and he will not return. As for objective reasons, all people can get sick and for a long time, and subjective. Uzbek elites have long been preparing for the post-Karimov», and now it’s time has come. Even on purely human reason. It has too long remained in power, and just all already very tired.

Secondly. Due to closure of the power transit it will be done through backroom agreements. Karimov was able to find a compromise between the conflicting interests of the various clan groups, which often viewed the contours of the influence of external players. As now they will find a common language, are still unclear.

In the third place. In foreign policy, Karimov acted multidirectional, and quite firmly, with unexpected twists. Tashkent, when it brought a lot of trouble as Moscow and Washington. There were periods when it seemed that Uzbekistan turned to China. At least, the flow of Chinese investment in recent years has grown significantly, writes Yuriy Reichel in the article «After Karimov» in the newspaper «Day».

You need to keep in mind that 78 years for men in Uzbekistan is not so much as in Ukraine. In a country with a population of 31 million people is home to about 9 thousand people who are over 100 years old, almost 40 thousand for that 90 years, 225 thousand older than 80 years.

About the bad health of Karimov’s say the last five years. The loudest topic discusses opposition political party «National movement of Uzbekistan», which is based abroad (also found the name of «popular movement of Uzbekistan). For example, in January 2015, in the midst of parliamentary elections, the National movement said that Karimov felt choking at dinner on January 28 and stayed unconscious for almost a day. Then came to my senses and January 30, went to the mountain cottage for the celebration of his 77th birthday anniversary. Then again was sick.

Trust the information of the «National movement» it is difficult though, because after each «deadly disease» Karimov lively and cheerful appeared in public. Although the current hospitalization is different from the previous one.

Even under the most favorable outcome is recovery from a brain hemorrhage will take time. So the administration of the President (OK of Saroa) is preparing to change.

In Uzbekistan there is no Vice President. Formally, the second-highest government official in the country is the Chairman of the upper house of Parliament — the Senate of the Oliy Majlis. This is guaranteed by article 96 of the Constitution.

Opposition newspaper in Uzbekistan Asiaterra article speculates that «there is a difference is to elect the President from among the deputies and only after the conclusion of Goodchoice or to give such powers to the Chairman of the Senate without any complicated formalities. Alluding to the fact that Yuldashev can take advantage of the situation. But to change the article of the Constitution in 2011 suggested that Karimov himself. A veteran in the power, like Karimov, hardly did anything to his own detriment.

«In Uzbekistan, all is quiet and so it will continue, — said the head of the Central Asian service Bi-bi-si Hamid Ismailov. In 25 years of independence has created a very stable administrative system, which is almost impossible to break. There is the office of the President, is Prime Minister, a Parliament. According to the Constitution, power in three months will go to the President of the Senate. But this is not happening».

From January 2015 the Senate is headed by 53-year-old Nigmatilla Tulkinovich Yuldashev, who gave 25 years of his life the Prosecutor’s office: started as Intern senior investigator ended with the Deputy attorney General.

When Karimov put Yuldashev in Parliament, the press wrote that «the President has strengthened informal system of checks and balances in the upper echelons of power, which is carefully created recent years.»

It was about the fact that Karimov has diluted the Senate representative of the Tashkent clan. Elites in Uzbekistan politics to solve everything. Karimov, according to analysts, the head of the country since Soviet times, as subtly manipulating clans.

According to the Constitution Yuldashev will become President at least three months before the election and the inauguration. According to the author of the article Asiaterra Alisher Taksanovas the President of the Senate the representative of the Tashkent clan, which means one thing: there is a complete transfer of forces towards the capital of the regional elite. The Samarkand, where Karimov and pregancy may be on the second and third roles, is reported in the article «In case of illness or death of the President, who temporarily manages Uzbekistan» the newspaper «KP in Ukraine».