"Most people don't see and experience the most exciting astronomical events not because they don't care, but because they don't make a plan. So here's some advance warning. 2019 will start with a rare 'Super Blood Wolf Moon' eclipse, but it's only the first of many incredible stargazing events in 2019. From eclipses and comets to supermoons and a Transit of Mercury, here's exactly when, where and why to look up at the night sky during 2019. What a way to start a year of spectacular celestial sights. With Earth between the Sun and Moon, our satellite in its 'full' phase will turn a gorgeous red-orange-copper color for an hour or so during this Total Lunar Eclipse. Totality is at 9:12 p.m. PST on January 20 and 00:12 a.m. EST on January 21 from North America, but do look for the change from partial eclipse to total eclipse over the preceding hour or so. The event goes into reverse afterward. It's visible on the night-side of Earth, which includes South America, the eastern Pacific Ocean, the western Atlantic Ocean, and extreme western Europe. It's also a Supermoon (when the moon is closer to Earth than average, so appears slightly larger), and the last Total Lunar Eclipse visible from the U.S. until May 2021, so enjoy it while you can."

"The U.S Government Shutdown Is Now Affecting the Accuracy of Your Weather Forecast"

"The partial government shutdown in the U.S. is nearing the three-week mark. National museums are closed, trash is overflowing at understaffed national parks, and airport security is at stake with TSA screeners calling in sick over their pay. Yet there’s another, more niche but critical area that’s also affected by the shutdown: weather forecasting. While the National Weather Service is technically considered essential and therefore shouldn’t be affected by the shutdown, that doesn’t paint a complete picture of the situation. Staff, such as forecasters and managers, are not being paid during the shutdown, but many are nonetheless expected to work. This is important because the service is responsible for developing forecast models, which don’t just tell Americans the expected weather in a given location, but also helps predict extreme weather events, such as hurricanes."

Can we really? The name of the day says you can! Life is short….let’s have fun!

If you are feeling somewhat mischievous (in a nice kind of way), join in on the celebration that all kids will love and all the young-at-heart adults will love just the same, as we celebrate National Step in a Puddle and Splash Your Friends Day. Celebrated annually on January 11, this day can be a little bit tricky depending on where you live, as at this time of the year, many of the puddles could be frozen!

HOW TO OBSERVE

Look out for some puddles so you can splash your friends. Use #StepInAPuddleAndSplashYourFriendsDay to post on social media.

High temps on Friday will once again warm to well above average levels across much of the state. In fact, temps could warm above the freezing mark across much of southern Minnesota, including the Twin Cities, which will be nearly +10F above average.

A recent tweet from @mndnr suggested that due to warmer weather, ice conditions have deteriorated in some locations. PLEASE BE CAREFUL if you plan on venturing out on area lakes/ponds!!

Recent 'Warmer' Weather Making Ice Conditions Unsafe in Some Areas

Recent mild December weather has made for fairly unsafe ice condtions across parts of the state. The MN DNR has some basic guidelines on how thick the ice should be before you even think about stepping out onto the ice! Also remember that ice is NEVER 100% SAFE!

According to NOAA's CPC, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook from January 17th - 23rd suggests warmer than average temps moving back in across much of the Upper Midwest. Interestingly, mid January is typically the coldest time of the year for us closer to home.

Temperature Trend

Here's a look at the temperature trend from Sunday, January 13th to Tuesday, January 15th, which shows another wave warmer than average weather moving through the Upper Midwest. If you're not a fan of sub-zero wind chills, it looks like we'll have another winter reprieve continuing through mid-month!

Extended Temperature Outlook

Take a look at the extended temperature outlook as we head through January 25th. Note that after our quick temp dip earlier this week, temps over the next several days looks to be much warmer than average with highs in 30s through the early part of next week. Enjoy it because, we're getting indications of a cooler period as we approach the end of the month. Stay tuned.

A Look Ahead...

According to the ECMWF (European model), there doesn't appear to be a whole lot of snow chances as we head through the next 10 days or so. If we trust this model, it looks like there maybe a little better chance by the middle/end of next week. Stay tuned...

Snowfall Potential

Here's the ECMWF snowfall potential through over the next 10 days and at this point, it doesn't appear that there will be any significant snow events close to home anytime soon. However, heavy snow will fall across the Central US and into the Ohio Valley as we approach the weekend.

A system moving into the Southern Plains late this week will cause an expansive area of snow across the Central Plains into the Ohio Valley Friday into the weekend.

The heaviest accumulation is expected in and around the St. Louis metro with 5-7” of snow expected. Winter Storm Watches are in effect from Friday into early Sunday due to the heavy snow potential.

This snow is expected to make travel difficult across the region and will impact the Friday evening commute.

Winter Weather To End The Week In The Central Plains. As a new system pushes into the Southern Plains late this week into the weekend, an expansive area of snow is expected to form on the cold side of the system from the Central Plains into the Ohio Valley. Snow will start across parts of Kansas and western Missouri Friday morning, spreading east toward St. Louis by the evening hours and into the Ohio Valley Friday Night. Snow is expected to be heavy at times, especially Friday Night in early Saturday morning in the St. Louis area.

Winter Weather Concerns. Due to the potential of heavy snow across parts of Missouri and Illinois with this system late in the week into the weekend, Winter Storm Watches have been issued including St. Louis. Looking at some of the locations under these Winter Storm Watches this morning:

St. Louis and Columbia (MO): Winter Storm Watch from Noon Friday to 6 AM Sunday for 5-7” of snow and up to a third of an inch of sleet.

Cape Girardeau, MO: Winter Storm Watch from 3 PM Friday to Noon Saturday for 3-5” of snow. Precipitation may begin as sleet or freezing rain before changing over to snow.

Snow Forecast. Snow totals of 5-7” are expected from Friday into Saturday across parts of eastern Missouri into southern Illinois, with the heaviest snow falling Friday Night into early Saturday. Surrounding that will be an expansive area of at least 2-4” of snow from parts of Kansas into the Ohio Valley. This snow is expected to make travel difficult across the region and will impact the Friday evening commute in St. Louis.

Note that the Twin Cities has only seen 11" of snow so far this season, which is nearly 14" below average! Interestingly, Rochester has seen more than 15" of snow this season, International Falls has seen nearly 24" of snow this season and Duluth has seen nearly 35" of snow this season. Also note that there are only two climate locations that are reporting above average snowfall for the season (Brainerd, MN & Marquette, MI). Other than that, every location is reporting below average snowfall for the season.

Current Snow Depth

The current snow depth across the region shows pretty minimal amounts across the Twin Cities and into the southeastern part of the state. However, locations across the northern half of Minnesota shows a decent snow pack, especially along the MN North Shore, where more than a foot is being reported.

"The flu and the common cold are nasty respiratory illnesses with some similar symptoms. Here’s how to tell the difference. In the winter literally everyone seems to be getting sick. Your coworker won’t stop coughing and your kid keeps coming home from school a snotty mess, and a box of tissues barely lasts you one day. Contrary to popular belief, cold weather does not make you sick — but respiratory viruses (namely, influenza) do tend to peak during the fall and winter. In the US, flu season typically lasts from October to March. However, a nasty case of sniffles and aches during the winter doesn’t always mean you have the flu. Often, it’s just a cold, which you can get any time of the year. The common cold and flu are both contagious respiratory illnesses that can make you feel miserable, but they are caused by different viruses. Some flu symptoms may mimic a cold, but the flu tends to be much more serious and deadly — so it’s important to know the difference between these two illnesses. Obviously, only a doctor can diagnose you, but knowing how to recognize symptoms is always helpful. So how can you tell if your symptoms mean you have a cold or the flu, and what is the best treatment? We spoke to Dr. Tania Elliott, an allergist and immunologist at NYU Langone Health in New York City, to find out."

"Are you avoiding your co-worker with that hacking cough, cold, or flu in the cubicle next to you? Do you draw your hand back from every doorknob? Have cold-and-flu phobia? Get a grip before the grippe gets you. Weve consulted dozens of medical experts to bring you 14 ways to avoid colds and flu this season. Every time you shake someones hand, wash yours:But dont stop there. Wash them as much as possible, says Mark Mengel, MD, chair of community and family medicine at Saint Louis University School of Medicine. Running lots of water over your hands will dilute any germs and send them down the drain. Keep your hands off: Touching your nose and your eyes may hurt you, Mengel says. Those are the most common places for germs to get in."

"It's the time of year when colds are commonplace. As the weather gets colder, and you're more inclined to spend more time indoors with others, the combination of confined spaces, weakened immune systems and recirculated air means that, at some point or another, you're likely to become victim to one of the 200 viruses that cause the common cold. It's likely then, that knowing how to get rid of a cold fast is a priority this winter - no-one wants to feel miserable, sickly and extra tired over the festive period. This year, let's put a halt to that streaming nose and feeling like the Walking Dead because actually, you don’t have to suffer and sniffle in silence. Simply bookmark this cold-busting guide, now."

"So you're telling me there's a chance?" Jim Carey says in 'Dumb and Dumber'. Minnesota's snow lovers may feel the same way these days. There's always tomorrow, or next week, or next month.

Only 11 inches has fallen this winter in the metro area, most of that in early December. We should have picked up closer to 25 inches. Then again, last winter only 7 inches had fallen as of January 11. We ended last winter season with 78.3 inches. So yes, there IS a chance!

January temperatures are 10F warmer than average, compensating for a chilly November. Thank you El Nino.

To friends still complaining about the Indian Summer that never came last year, can I interest you in another extended January Thaw? I see 5 consecutive days above 32F, with a shot at low 40s Monday. Not too shabby, considering this week is, historically, the coldest of the entire year.

St. Louis winds up with 3-6 inches of slush, but our snow drought continues the next 2 weeks. Great news for commuters, bad news for kids of all ages, wondering how the snowiest month of the year can be so boring and brown. _____________________________________________

Moon Phase for January 11th at Midnight 2.0 Days Before First Quarter Moon

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What's in the Night Sky?

According to EarthSky.org this is what will be visible in the night sky over the next several nights:

"On January 11, 12 and 13, 2019, use the waxing crescent moon to find the red planet Mars. You’ll find both Mars and the moon in the evening sky, with the moon in a waxing crescent phase and Mars much fainter than it was six months ago, when it outshone all the stars, brighter than since 2003. Now, Mars is still shining as brightly as a 1st-magnitude star. It’ll be that bright “star” close to the moon on these evenings. Of course, when we say the moon and Mars are close together, we mean they are close together on our sky’s dome. These two worlds are not particularly close together in space. When you see them, know that our moon lies about a quarter million miles (400,000 km) away, whereas Mars – a neighboring planet – lodges way beyond the moon, at some 467 times the moon’s distance."

High temps across the country on Friday will still be warmer than average across the Upper Midwest once again, but cooler than average temps will be found in the Central and Eastern part of the country.

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National Weather Outlook

Here's a look at weather conditions as we head into the early part of the weekend. Note the large storm system that will develop across the central and southern US on Friday with areas of heavy rain and snow. Winter weather headlines have already been posted across parts of the region in advance of snowfall that will add up to shovelable amounts. Keep in mind that travel in these areas will likely be compromised.

According to NOAA's WPC, the 7 day precipitation potential suggests heavy precipitation continuing in the Western US with several inches of liquid possible along the coast and in the higher elevations! There also appears to be more heavy precipitation across parts of the Southern US, where areas of heavy rain and snow will be possible.

"For three straight years, carbon dioxide emissions in the U.S. dropped. But in 2018, emissions of the potent greenhouse gas shot back up. A new report by the Rhodium Group — a research institution that analyzes global economic and environmental trends — found that in 2018 carbon dioxide emissions rose 3.4 percent from the prior year. That's the second largest gain in the last two decades. This rise comes at a time when global scientists have repeatedly urged nations to ambitiously cut their carbon emissions, as rising temperatures have stoked prolonged droughts and heat waves while boosting the odds of record-breaking storms. "It’s trending in the wrong direction — it’s not encouraging," Robert McGrath, the director of the University of Colorado Boulder's Renewable and Sustainable Energy Institute who had no role in the report but reviewed it, said in an interview. But, McGrath emphasized, the U.S. is certainly capable of slashing its carbon appetite and transitioning to electrified transportation and renewable energies — if it wanted to."

"Some people are truly into the winter — and who doesn’t love the part where you get to snuggle up in a cozy sweater with a hot drink after a long day in the snow? But even if you aren’t someone who feels the cold, sometimes the weather can actually get so frigid that it’s dangerous to go out. But when is it too cold, and what should we do to stay safe? Wrap up and read on. The point at which cold gets dangerous is a higher temperature than you might think, especially if you live somewhere that frequently sees temperatures in the teens or lower. “It’s safe to be outside if the temperature is 32°F or above,” says David A. Greuner, MD, FACS, co-founder and director of NYC Surgical. “If the temperature falls between 13°F and 31°F, you should take breaks from the cold approximately every 20 to 30 minutes. If wind chill temperatures are 13°F and below, you should remain indoors.” Wind chill measures the true danger of weather conditions by factoring in how the low temperature and wind speed combine to remove heat from an exposed human face. To get a better idea, check out this chart created by the National Weather Service. For example, if the ambient temperature is 20°F and the wind speed is a breezy 10 mph, the wind chill is a significantly colder 9°F."

"IBM Wants to Use a Sensor in Your Phone to Create Ultra High-Res Weather Forecasts"

"In the world of weather forecasting, the battle for supremacy is generally being waged between the Euro and American weather models maintained by U.S. and European Union governmental agencies. But there are tons of other options to choose from, and a new one emerged on Tuesday at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas. IBM and its subsidiary The Weather Company (TWC) have created a model that aims to offer a wildly detailed view of weather around the world. If proven accurate, the model could change forecasting, particularly in the developing world where a paucity of data makes good predictions hard. But it could also invite controversy by relying on cell phone data from the Weather Channel app, which the city of Los Angeles recently sued over for misleading users about how much data it collects."

"A lighthouse was swept away by high winds and waves on Lake Michigan on Monday. NBC 25 reports the South Pier Light's 20-foot-tall fiberglass tower, on the south side of the Manitowoc Breakwater Light in Wisconsin, fell into the lake around 8:30 a.m. All that is left is the concrete base. The Manitowoc Breakwater Light, located at the mouth of the Manitowoc River, is a 52 foot steel tower set upon a 22 foot by 48 foot concrete base. The present light was built in 1918, replacing earlier lights built in 1840 and 1895."

"A Major Climate Treaty to Reduce Air Conditioning Emissions Just Went Into Force—Without the U.S."

"While the world was still hungover from the major climate conference in Poland last month, a game-changing climate treaty quietly went into effect. The Kigali Amendment entered into force as the calendar turned to 2019 and with it, the world began to put the clamps down on some of the most potent greenhouse gases on Earth. Now if only the U.S. would sign on. It’s taken years for the amendment to take shape and ratify, and it all stems from a big whoopsie in the 1980s. Then, scientists realized that chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)—chemicals commonly found in air conditioners, refrigerators, and other cooling technologies—were screwing up Earth’s ozone layer. The world’s governments acted quickly to phase them out, passing the Montreal Protocol, an international treaty that’s considered to be among the most successful environmental treaties ever agreed to."

"Since the U.S. military is extremely reliant on satellites for communications, intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance and geolocation, the Air Force is striving to augment space weather observations and improve forecast models. Unfortunately, progress often occurs at a glacial pace. “All of you probably learned about climate change and glacier movement,” said Ralph Stoffler, Air Force weather director. “Well this is the glacier of modernization. It moves very, very slowly.” Funding is not the problem. “The resources are there,” Stoffler said Jan. 7 at the American Meteorological Society’s annual meeting here. “The problem is the number of folks in industry and everywhere else that are building space weather capabilities are pretty limited.” This year, the Air Force plans to test prototype Energetic Charged Particle (ECP) sensors with goals of awarding production contracts in 2020 and reaching full operational capability in 2023. In 2015, Air Force Secretary Deborah Lee James signed a memo requiring all new satellites that had not completed their final design phase to include an energetic charged particle sensor. “We continue with mandate to equip all Air Force satellites with ECP sensors,” Stoffler said. “That is moving forward, which is good news.”

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Paul Douglas is a nationally respected meteorologist with 35 years of television and radio experience. A serial entrepreneur, Douglas is Senior Meteorologist and Founder of Media Logic Group. Douglas and a team of meteorologists provide weather services for various media and corporate interests at Praedictix. Developers and engineers create unique streams of weather data, imagery and API’s via Aeris Weather. He is co-host of a radio program, weekdays from 3 to 6 p.m. on WCCO Radio. His speaking engagements take him around the Midwest with a message of continuous experimentation and reinvention, no matter what business you’re in. He is the public face of “SAVE”, Suicide Awareness, Voices of Education, based in Bloomington. Send Paul a question.

A longer-duration snow event is possible Monday into Tuesday with 2-5" of snow expected in the Twin Cities. Meanwhile, enjoy the little warm up early this week, as we're downright cold once again by Friday. Click for details! - D.J. Kayser

Expect single digits & teens for highs into early February; even the metro area may not climb above 0F on Friday. Chillingly good news: we'll all be well-preserved! Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson

The mercury may finally dip below 0F over the weekend in the Twin Cities; the latest 'first subzero' reading on record at MSP. And the 11 inches of snow that's piled up so far this winter is the least, to date, since 2007. Check the blogs for more details. -Todd Nelson

Another major winter storm pushes south of Minnesota Friday, yanking the coldest air of the season so far into town this weekend. Daytime highs hold in single digits and teens Saturday & Sunday before recovering next week. No significant natural snow in sight, but it will be cold enough for ski resorts to make snow. Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson