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HURRICANE BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED AUG 26 1998
BONNIE APPEARS TO BE PROGRESSING ABOUT ON SCHEDULE. RADAR...
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...AND SATELLITE NOW HINT AT THE EXPECTED
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH. THE INITIAL MOTION...AVERAGED OVER THE PAST
6 HOURS...IS 340 DEGREES WHILE A VERY SHORT-TERM MOTION IS DUE
NORTH. WE WILL USE 350/10 KT. THE REDUCED SPEED IS ALSO CONSISTENT
WITH THE FIRST STAGES OF A TURN IN THE TRACK. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE
AGAIN ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 100 KT.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FEATURES TO THE NNW OF BONNIE APPEAR MORE
PROMINENTLY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THAN 24 HOUR AGO. THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN YESTERDAY AS
WELL...AND THIS LENDS ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE TO THE EXPECTATION THAT
THE HURRICANE WILL SOON BE CAUGHT UP IN THE MIDDLE LATITUDE FLOW AND
EVENTUALLY ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE 06Z AVN AND GFDL
RUNS SHOW THAT EVOLUTION...AS DOES THE OFFICIAL TRACK.
IN THE SHORT-TERM...THE GREATER NORTHWARD COMPONENT SUGGESTS A TRACK
A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF 6 HOURS AGO. THE RATHER SLOW MOTION LIKELY
MEANS A PROLONGED...12-18 HOUR...BATTERING BY STRONG WINDS FOR SOME
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. IT ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THE STORM
SURGE WILL PERSIST LONG ENOUGH TO BE INFLUENCED BY AT LEAST TWO
DIFFERENT HIGH TIDES BEFORE BONNIE LEAVES THE AREA.
WITH THE CENTER NOW OFFSHORE FROM THE NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH
CAROLINA AND WITH A NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OBSERVED...THE WARNINGS AND
WATCHES SOUTH OF CAPE ROMAIN SOUTH CAROLINA ARE DISCONTINUED.
RAPPAPORT
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 26/1500Z 33.2N 77.8W 100 KTS
12HR VT 27/0000Z 34.6N 77.7W 100 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT 27/1200Z 36.2N 76.0W 80 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT 28/0000Z 38.2N 72.4W 75 KTS
48HR VT 28/1200Z 40.2N 66.7W 70 KTS
72HR VT 29/1200Z 42.5N 51.6W 55 KTS
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