Two of the five State Senate seats that touch Orange County are up for election in 2020, and while both are held by Republican incumbents Democrats see both as potential flip districts, as the party hopes to make the county match its statewide super majority.

But Republicans are confident that a controversial challenger in one race, and a well-known incumbent in the other will help Sens. Ling Ling Chang, R-Diamond Bar, and John Moorlach, R-Costa Mesa, hang on to their seats.

“We feel very good about their chances to be sent back to Sacramento,” said Matt Fleming, spokesman for the California Republican Party.

Though some local state senate districts have switched party representation in recent years, Republicans have long held at least three of the county’s five seats.

State senators are elected to four-year terms, with half of the seats up during presidential elections and the other half up during midterms. Last year, incumbents held on to all three OC state senate seats that were contested. Those included the solidly Republican 36th District in south OC, represented by Pat Bates, R-Laguna Niguel; the solidly blue 32nd District, which covers part of south Los Angeles County plus a slice of north OC and is represented by Bob Archuleta, D-Pico Rivera; and central OC’s 34th District, a seat that has flipped between red and blue in recent years and now is represented Tom Umberg, D-Santa Ana.

Next year, if either or both Chang and Moorlach fall to what figure to be viable contenders, a majority of local state senate districts would be blue for the first time in recent history.

Chang vs. Newman rematch

Chang’s seat has the most complicated background and the most headline-grabbing contender.

The 29th District covers much of northeast Orange County, from Yorba Linda through Fullerton and over to Cypress, plus Diamond Bar in Los Angeles County and Chino Hills in San Bernardino County.

The seat had been held by a Republican for multiple terms, but voter registration now leans blue, with 36.1 percent Democrats vs. 31.07 percent GOP. The district also chose Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump by nearly 13 percentage points in 2016, the same year it elected Democrat Josh Newman over Chang, by just 2,498 votes.

The seat didn’t stay blue for long, though.

In 2017, months after entering office, Newman was among 81 legislators who voted to raise the state gas tax by 12 cents per gallon to help pay for transportation projects and road improvements around the state. Republicans, who saw Newman as vulnerable, soon launched a recall effort against him, touting the gas tax vote as part of their recall campaign. That effort succeeded, and a year ago, in a low turnout primary, voters recalled Newman and sent Chang to take his place.

Chang, a Taiwanese immigrant who worked for a business consulting group, served one prior term on the State Assembly and two terms on the Diamond Bar City Council. Since being elected to the State Senate, she has focused on issues surrounding public safety, veterans and technology. This week, her office announced that eight bills she’s authored on these issues all passed out of key committees.

Given her track record, and the fact that she’s likely going to face only Newman, who was handily recalled (58% of voters were favor his ouster), state GOP spokesman Fleming believes Chang will be on solid ground next year.

But Newman pointed out that he was an underdog when he won in 2016. And, since then, Democrats have only expanded their voter registration advantage in SD 29, with voters sending Democrats to Congressional seats that overlap the district. Plus, Newman noted that Republicans were criticized for using the recall process to oust him for casting a vote — not for malfeasance — just months after voters sent him to Sacramento.

In his bid for a comeback in 2020, Newman, a former Army officer and businessman, isn’t wasting any time resuming his use of unusual campaign tactics.

Last time around, he dressed in a bear suit and used a remote-controlled blimp to attract attention. This time, his campaign bought an ice cream truck, with a plan to visit key locations in the district and hand out free treats with campaign information on the wrappers.

Fleming called the tactics “crazy,” but Newman sees them as “whimsical” and effective ways to engage voters on serious issues.

“It turns out people are actually hungry for elected leaders who are real people who are willing to be accessible, accountable and up to the task of tackling hard problems without endlessly dodging or spinning.”

Challengers for Moorlach

Heading into 2020, Moorlach can point to strong name recognition earned during a long career in Orange County.

Starting with famously predicting the county’s 1994 bankruptcy, and riding that fame to elected office as county treasurer and, later, as a supervisor, Moorlach also has a reputation for fiscal conservancy. A reprimand for giving a woman a playful but unwanted “noogie” is about the only controversy Moorlach has found himself in.

“He’s a household name,” Fleming said.

But there are some signs that the seat could be up for grabs this election cycle, with some GOP insiders saying Moorlach might have a tough race ahead.

The 37th District covers central Orange County, stretching from Anaheim to Laguna Beach and including at least portions of major cities such as Irvine, Costa Mesa, Huntington Beach and Newport Beach. The district still leans red, with 34.7 percent of voters registered Republicans vs. 31.3 percent Democrats, but voters did go for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump by 6 percentage points in 2016. And, last year, voters elected Democrats to Congress for overlapping House seats.

Katrina Foley, one of two Democrats so far challenging Moorlach in the 2020 race, says the recent voting pattern “underscores the ripe opportunity to flip this Senate seat red-to-blue.”

Foley, an attorney and a 10-year member of the Costa Mesa City Council, is now serving as the city’s first directly elected mayor. Her campaign for state senate is centered on fighting climate change, public safety and job creation. And she has been racking up endorsements from labor groups and prominent Democrats, including CA 48 Rep. Harley Rouda, D-Laguna Beach.

The other Democrat challenging Moorlach is Dave Min, a law professor at UC Irvine. Min, a first generation Korean American, hasn’t previously held political office, but he served as senior policy adviser for the Joint Economic Committee of Congress. Last year, he ran for the 45th Congressional seat and lost a bid to make the general election when Katie Porter edged him by 2.5 percentage points in the primary.

Along with protecting the environment and fighting for affordable housing, Min is running on reducing gun violence, protecting immigrant communities and standing up to Trump.

Brooke Edwards Staggs covers state and federal politics through an Orange County lens, plus the politics, business and culture of cannabis in California. Journalism has led Staggs to a manhunt in Las Vegas, a zero gravity flight over Queens and a fishing village in Ghana. The Big Bear native is addicted to education. She earned her bachelors degree in English from California Baptist University, then got her master's in education as she taught high school English in the Inland Empire. After four years in the classroom, she left in 2006 to be a student again herself, earning a masters degree in journalism from New York University while interning and freelancing for a variety of publications. She sees journalism as another form of teaching, helping readers make informed decisions and better understand the world around them. Staggs spent five years as a staff writer then city editor at the Daily Press in Victorville. She joined the Orange County Register in January 2013, covering several Orange County communities before taking on the marijuana beat in February 2016 and the politics beat in April 2019. That work has earned her first-place wins in the Best of the West, California Journalism Awards and Orange County Press Club competitions. On occasion, she also teaches community college and ghostwrites nonfiction books. Staggs loves dancing and new adventures. She hates water slides and injustice. If she doesn’t get right back to you, there’s a good chance she’s sitting with her DJ husband on a plane or train or boat destined for somewhere – anywhere – they’ve never been.

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