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Harvard–Belfer on Syria

"The frightening rise and expansion of the Islamic State in Iraq and Greater Syria (ISIS), which has now triggered yet another round of American-led foreign military attacks in the Levant, continues to confound many in the region and around the world. Many ask: Where did these killers come from and where do they aim to go? These issues will be clarified in the months and perhaps years ahead, but one aspect of ISIS should be crystal clear to anyone who has made even a cursory review of Islamist movements in the Middle East in the past two generations."

"Analysts in the United States this week are debating the precise meaning of the statements Wednesday by John Allen, the ex-Marine general who now coordinates the U.S.-led coalition’s response to the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS). He said that the United States is not coordinating with the Free Syrian Army, and instead plans to develop from scratch new local ground units in Iraq and Syria to fight ISIS on two fronts."

One of the most significant common factors that has exploded throughout the Arab World in recent years has been the birth and spread of non-state actors — organizations, parties, militias — that have assumed the role of traditional governments in many countries. These non-state actors do not follow a single pattern of behavior, but they do highlight a common trend across much of the Arab World — the continuing fragmentation of once whole states into a patchwork of armed groups that operate within the borders of once sovereign countries.

"I dearly wish that the 'Islamic State' (IS) will be contained and then defeated by the many countries and non-governmental armed groups who say they are committed to achieving that goal. From the evidence to date, it is hard to be confident that the American-led coalition under construction will be the effective vehicle to do that, which is a very uncomfortable feeling."

"I have the uncomfortable feeling this week that we may be at the beginning of a replay of that period in 2001-2003 when the United States launched a 'global war on terror' to defeat Al-Qaeda and its brand of terrorism. A decade later, the U.S. and U.K. led an attack on Iraq with a 'coalition of the willing,' and now, another decade on, we hear the same language and see the same military movements from the United States as it responds to the threat to all of us posed by the 'Islamic State' (IS) in Syria-Iraq."

"The debates now taking place about the IS phenomenon and threat focus on who is to blame for allowing it to develop, how widely will IS spread territorially, and how much support does IS enjoy around the region in lands where it does not control territory? All this is important, but the most terrifying aspect of the IS phenomenon is not about the extremist young men who gravitate to its call, but rather about the factors across the Arab region and beyond that allowed it to come into being in the first place — factors that continue to shape our troubled region today."

"Any analyst or citizen of the countries of the Middle East quickly becomes dizzy these days in trying to find the start of a thread of ideas that could help explain the cataclysmic developments in Iraq and Syria, Lebanon, Palestine-Israel, Egypt, Libya, Kurdistan and other fractured and violent lands."

"The startling developments in northern Iraq, where the militant group the Islamic State of Iraq and Greater Syria (ISIS) has taken control of Mosul and other cities, highlights several troubling trends that have been evident across much of the Arab World for years."

International Security

"The final points that must be agreed for a negotiation to start are so central to the entire peace-making process -- borders, recognition, refugees, Jerusalem -- that an inability even to start discussions bodes ill for the prospects of actually reaching an agreement. Also, the proposed solutions to bridging the gaps between the two sides are so deeply embellished in make-believe romanticism and evading reality that they only postpone the deal-breaking disagreements to come -- just kicking the can down the road, in effect."

Middle East Initiative

"The intense debate that is taking place across the world in recent months about the precise nature and motivating forces for the “Islamic State” movement (or ISIS) is impressive and useful, but still incomplete. It will allow all concerned to enjoy a more accurate understanding of what this group is all about and why it attracts adherents from across the world, which is critical to developing a policy to defeat it. There is hope and despair here."

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