NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: BRIGHT

The Capitals next 5 game forecast could not be much brighter. They have 6 likely wins where they are winning >60% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -150 favorite, 3 more games where they are favored by at least 53%, and no games where they are a clear underdog.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)

NOV 19

LIKELY WIN

63% @MON

788 miles

NOV 21

LIKELY WIN

69% CHI

--

NOV 23

LIKELY WIN

74% DET

--

NOV 24**

CLOSE GAME

54% @NYR

331 miles

NOV 26

CLOSE GAME

55% @NYI

328 miles

NOV 30

LIKELY WIN

72% NJ

--

DEC 2

LIKELY WIN

74% ANA

--

DEC 4

CLOSE GAME

52% @LV

3360 miles

DEC 6

LIKELY WIN

68% @ARI

3200 miles

DEC 8

CLOSE GAME

57% @CLB

528 miles

The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 3-2 (36% chance). Their chances of winning their next 5 are 9.9%. At #11 in the conference, they are fighting with the Hurricanes for positioning. With a +1.62 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they have a good chance of improving their conference seed. They are ahead of the Red Wings by one point. With a +1.14 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they have a good chance of widening the gap.

Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Capitals are the 7th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Capitals are playing 7 games, traveling 2106 miles crossing no time zones. They rank #22 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

According to Sportsline the Washington Capitals are -120 favorites but their simulated win percentage is very different and we see this as a pick with a lot of value. Get the pick for this game at Sportsline.com.

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C

At 9-7-3 the Capitals are behind their money line projected win total of 9.9 wins. They have 6 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 2 good wins (wins as clear underdog, or 2+ final margin in what was expected to be a close game). They have won 44% of their road games and were expected to win 47%. At home they have a 50% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 57%. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (5-4-1, 50%) is pretty much what was expected of them and mirrors their season overall. The Capitals perform very well in our power ranking simulations beating every other team 61.3% of the time (#3 in the league). In our pre-season simulations they were ranked #1 winning 63.1%.

Their average goal differential is 0 which ranks #15 in the league, which is the same as how they rank in points. This is a relatively better home team than a road team. They are the #11 ranked team in goal differential in home games, vs #21 in road games. Their average goal differential in their past 7 games is +0.14.

OFFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

DEFENSIVE STATS PER GAME (Lower # is Better):

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)

The Capitals are championship contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 17.4% chance of winning it all. On 10/11 they had an 18.9% chance before dropping to 10.1% on 11/13. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 11.2%. They have a 54.7% chance of winning their division. The playoffs are not likely with their 97.4% chance and a projected #11 finish in the conference. They have a good shot at getting home court advantage in the first round (71%). They have a 68% chance of reaching the conference semi-finals and a 40.3% chance of reaching the conference finals. Based on the odds, they have an 11.1% chance of winning the East (8/1) and a 5.9% chance of winning it all (16/1). In simulations they make the Finals 20.7% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier

Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 49% #13 Easiest

Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 51% #11 Toughest

Capitals' Championship Forecast Changes

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (G, C, LW, RW, D). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.