Daily Archives: February 4, 2017

China’s 500-Ship Navy Suddenly Appears on the Horizon

The People’s Liberation Army’s Navy is growing fast; expect it to grow even faster.

The increasingly belligerent tone of rhetoric from Beijing and Washington since President Donald Trump’s inauguration shows no sign of improving the security situation in the Asia–Pacific.

Not only has the US attitude changed, but it is remarkable that China has, for the first time, not simply capitulated but reacted strongly – almost to the extent of calling them out.

The language used by the Chinese Communist Party’s media is confident and strident. However, Beijing is not simply adopting this tone because of its economic strength, but because it now has a military capable of delivering radical change in the region.

Indeed, while discussion over the future performance of the Chinese economy is clouded by problems such as a smaller profit-to-output margins and a massive debt overhang, China’s military future is clearer. As a study by US Naval War College Professor of Strategy Andrew Erickson points out, there is more certainty over the country’s military capabilities.

The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (Navy) – or PLA(N) – is moving towards an ambition of 500 warships, including aircraft carriers, nuclear submarines, amphibious ships and a burgeoning frigate and destroyer force.

Just in the past three weeks a new destroyer and new corvette have been launched and discussion over new carrier-based aircraft has been increasing. The growth in the PLA(N) force structure has been rapid: indeed it is hard to recall growth at a similar pace in any navy across history.

Against this, the US Navy – still the world’s most powerful naval force – has an aspiration of returning to a force design of around 350 units.

It is even more remarkable given that until the mid-1980s, the PLA had not considered the sea as a domain to be contested, opting instead for a strategy of coastal control, and an element of sea denial – that is, the ability to deny freedom of movement to their adversaries inside their coastline.

The change in outlook was stimulated General Liu Huaqing, who was PLA(N) Commander between August 1982 and January 1988, who had a grand design for domination of the Pacific. He first planned to take control of the first island chain (2000–2010, his timeline), the second island chain (2011–2020) and subsequently the entire Pacific (before 2050).

His definition of ‘control’ remains a moot point to many commentators, and is open to wide interpretation. The plan that General – sometimes called Admiral – Liu developed was accepted as doctrine when he became commander of the PLA(N). It was fully funded once he entered the Chinese Polituro Standing Committee in 1992.

The plan’s implementation was largely down to one of his successors, Admiral Wu Shengli. He retired in January after 11 years as Commander of the Chinese Navy, and 23 years as a military commander at the very highest level.

Under Wu, the growth of Beijing’s naval power has been phenomenal . Not only have ship, submarine and aircraft numbers increased rapidly, but so too have the breadth of operations they have been involved in, from evacuation operations in Libya to counter-piracy patrols in the Indian Ocean. The commissioning and deployment of China’s only aircraft carrier, Liaoning, as Wu departed his military post is no coincidence.

So great has the impact of Liu and subsequently Wu been for China that there was no single man capable of replacing them. Admiral Shen Jinlong, previously commander of China’s South Sea Fleet, has taken the reins as Commander of the PLA(N), with Admiral Yuan Yubai moving to command the Southern Theatre Command from running the North Sea Fleet.

These two men face a different challenge if they are to deliver against that ambition. People win battles, not ships. Given that the PLA is an organisational system that relies on conformity of people and thinking, there needs to be a change in that mind-set. That is almost a greater challenge than building a bunch of new ships.

Having delivered Liu’s first phase and the capabilities in place to achieve phase two, the PLA(N) is now a powerful tool that makes the ruling Communist Party’s Pacific ambitions a realistic possibility.

Simultaneous development of floating nuclear power stations, permanent military bases in the South China Sea and the full deployment of the BeiDou satellite navigation system are starting to provide Beijing with a competitive edge in the China Seas.

‘Quantity has a quality all of its own’ – attributed, variously, to Stalin, Trotsky and Mao among others – and against a more professional, but smaller US Navy spread across two oceans, Beijing is slowly pulling ahead.

Banner image: The Chinese Navy’s Liaoning air crarrier is set to project Beijing’s power in the Pacific. Courtesy of Xinhua.

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Against this, the US Navy – still the world’s most powerful naval force – has an aspiration of returning to a force design of around 350 units.

It is even more remarkable given that until the mid-1980s, the PLA had not considered the sea as a domain to be contested, opting instead for a strategy of coastal control, and an element of sea denial – that is, the ability to deny freedom of movement to their adversaries inside their coastline.

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Argentina Scraps Plans For New Fighters

The Argentinian Government has scrapped plans to replace its ageing fleet of fighter jets.

Citing economic woes Defence Minister Julio Martínez said there’ll be no new combat aircraft purchased until an improvement in the country’s financial affairs.

Buenos Aires had been rumoured to be in talks with Russia to buy 15 Mig-29 Fighters and with China to explore purchasing JF-17 Thunder jets.

Having retired its Mirage squadrons in 2015 the Argentinian Air Force is also set to lose its A-4AR Fightinghawk’s in 2018, although the planes have reportedly been grounded over safety concerns since early 2016.

The announcement means that just the domestically built turbo-prop Pucara and turbofan Pampas will be left flying.

The Pucara, a ground attack and counter-insurgency fighter, has been in service since 1974 and with modernisation to 20 of the 32 in the existing fleet they are expected to remain in the air until 2045.

Of the 110 built a number were exported to countries including Sri Lanka and Uruguay, 13 of them were destroyed by British forces during the Falklands War.

The Pampas although equipped with a cannon and hardpoints for the mounting of rockets and missiles is primarily used as an advanced trainer.

New units were ordered in 2013 but inflationary pressures and recession has left the Buenos Aires government as yet unable to finance the building of them.

Last year declassified British Foreign Office documents revealed that Israel had helped arm Argentina’s ruling military junta prior to the invasion of the Falkland Islands, including the supply of Skyhawk fighter jets.

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Stavatti enters Javelin into USAF T-X competition

The Stavatti Javelin is a new twin-engine, two-seat, high performance military jet trainer and Very Light Fighter (VLF) aircraft. Derived from the ATG Javelin Mk-30, the Javelin will be a candidate for the USAF T-X trainer requirement, as well as a trainer and VLF that can be sold to allied air forces worldwide.

The Javelin project began in 1998 with the formation of Aviation Technology Group (ATG) in Englewood, Colorado. Intended as a two-seat civil jet sportplane, the original ATG-1 Javelin mockup was unveiled and displayed at the NBAA convention in 2002. With orders for 151 aircraft by 2003, in 2004 ATG announced a partnership with Israel Aircraft Industries (IAI) to develop and produce a family of two seat military jet trainers designated the Javelin Mk-20 and Mk-30. The prototype Javelin had its maiden flight on 30 September 2005. In December 2007 ATG ceased business operations after failing to raise additional development capital, ultimately declaring bankruptcy in 2008.

On 14 November 2016 Stavatti Aerospace Ltd was granted an Exclusive License to re-imagine, develop, prototype, certify, manufacture, sell, and support the Javelin as an Advanced Jet Trainer (AJT) and VLF from the present owner of the Javelin project’s intellectual property and physical assets.

Upon execution of the licensing agreement, Stavatti immediately began redesigning the Mk-30 Javelin configuration to directly address the current USAF T-X RFP requirements as issued on 31 December 2016. The Stavatti Javelin maintains many exterior characteristics of the original Javelin design but benefits from structural improvements to increase maximum load factor to 9-Gs, more powerful engines, greater internal fuel capacity, increased maximum external warload, higher maximum takeoff weight, a cockpit designed for the T-X mission that satisfies JPATs flight crew accommodation cases 1-8, and a maximum level speed of Mach 1.36. The result is a very affordable, next generation supersonic trainer.

Stavatti is now building the Javelin Industry Team and may partner with a larger prime contractor to expand the Javelin program’s ability to provide comprehensive manufacturing, training, and contractor logistical support to satisfy T-X requirements.

Stavatti will be releasing technical information regarding the reimagined Javelin beginning March 1st followed by a formal response to the USAF T-X RFP on March 30th.

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Javelin Advanced Jet Trainer (AJT)

The two-seater, twin-engine Javelin is a non-military jet aircraft developed by the Aviation Technology Group (ATG) to conduct a broad range of uses such as charter, air taxi, training, experiment support, organ transportation, etc. Javelin MK-10 aircraft combines glass instrumentation, safety features, and FJ-33 wide-fan sweep technology jet engines into a two-place executive jet. The aircraft first flew on September 30, 2005. In December 2007, the project was put on hold due to funding related issues.

The Advanced Jet Trainer (AJT) is a derivative of Javelin executive jet for military pilot training featuring high reliability and low maintenance costs, which are common trait within Javelin family of aircraft. The performance of this trainer is equal to or superior to all existing trainers in its class. The Javelin AJT differs from existing military trainers because it can not carry weapons load, which also means a lower operating and maintenance costs. The weapons training is replaced by a simulation system.

Two Javelin AJT military training variants are being developed by ATG: the Javelin AJT MK-20 and Javelin AJT MK-30 aircraft, while the Javelin MK-10 remains as a business jet version. The two variants are externally the same aircraft but differ in their gross weight. The Javelin AJT MK-20 loads up to 280 gallons of fuel, while the heavier MK-30 variant has 350 gal of fuel capacity. Structural limits for both aircraft are +6g/-3g.

In October 13, 2004, ATG and IAI of Israel signed a cooperative agreement for the design, development and manufacture of the AJT aircraft. The AJT prototype first flight was expected in October 2004. The agreement covers marketing and establishes two final assembly lines in New Mexico (USA) and Israel. Cockpit and avionics of AJT will be compatible with 4th and 5th generation aircraft including F-15, F-16, Mig-29, Su-30, Rafale and Eurofighter.