Warmer ocean temperatures appear to have fueled an increase in the power of hurricanes, but led to a decrease in the overall number of tropical cyclones worldwide, according to a new study by Florida State researchers.

In a recent study published on May 18 in Nature Climate Change, a journal that highlights research into the impact of global warming, FSU professor of geography James Elsner and Namyoung Kang, the study's lead author, calculated that, since 1984 and the beginning of innovations in radar imagery, wind speeds of tropical cyclones have increased by three miles per hour on average. In contrast, there were about six fewer cyclones than otherwise would have formed if ocean temperatures remained constant.

"We're seeing fewer hurricanes, but the ones we do see are more intense," study coauthor Elsner told the Washington Post. "When one comes, all hell can break loose."

Over the past decade, a flood of research has attempted to analyze if warmer waters have led to either an increase in the number of storms or changes in their maximum intensity. Storms draw their energy from the heat of the ocean and potential changes – as a result of global warming – in the complex atmospheric conditions that shape hurricanes could have a dramatic effect on the way they form. However, a lack of reliable historical data to compare trends have hindered scientific efforts to measure how a storm's intensity and their frequency might change in a warming future.

Instead of examining how the number of hurricanes has fluctuated or how their intensity has changed, FSU researchers tackled the question from a new perspective: They investigated how warming ocean temperatures might affect the relationship between hurricane frequency and their maximum intensity.

Kang, also a deputy director of the National Typhoon Center of South Korea, said their research could be directly applied to seasonal forecasts on a global scale.

"In a warmer year, stronger but fewer tropical cyclones are likely to occur," he said. "In a colder year, on the other hand, weaker but more tropical cyclones [are likely]."

Their reasoning behind the study's trade off is that while warmer oceans provide more energy for storms, it creates unfavorable atmospheric conditions for hurricane development, reducing their overall number. But the storms that do surpass these environmental hurdles will tend to be stronger.

The new research by Kang and Elsner underscores the long-running scientific dispute over the effects of global warming on the frequency and overall intensity of hurricanes.

A 2012 report by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change found that as the world warms, tropical cyclones are likely to become less frequent but those that do form will have stronger winds and heavier rains, a view that the new Kang and Elsner study shares.

Yet another study published in 2013 by prominent atmospheric scientist Kerry Emanuel at MIT found that in stark contrast to previous findings, tropical cyclones are likely to grow stronger and more frequent in the years to come, particularly in the western fringe of the North Pacific Ocean where cyclones can devastate the densely populated coastlines of Asian nations.

Other experts have challenged the notion that a warmer world will mean more and stronger storms. A 2009 study by the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration found that an increase in the number of tropical cyclones was attributable to an improvement in measurement and analysis technology, not a meteorological shift driven by global warming towards conditions that are more favorable for hurricane development.

What remains unchanged: A drop in the number of hurricanes born in the waters of the Atlantic for the past two years. The forecast for the 2015 season by researchers Phil Klotzbach and William Gray at Colorado State University calls for another quiet hurricane season, with fewer storms than on average.

Citing the disruptive effects of El Niño and cooler temperatures in the tropical Atlantic, Klotzbach and Gray are predicting seven named storms, three hurricanes and one major hurricane during this year's season, which runs from June 1 to November 30.