I'm kind of surprised the line is so tentative about picking
the Redskins. Yeah, The
Redskins are 1-3 in their last 4 meetings, but this is
probably the best Redskins team since 2005, and the Rams show
every sign of still being awful.

Patriots @ Raiders should be an interesting matchup. Remember
last year, when Peyton Hillis ran all over the Patriots defense in
one of the Browns few wins? The Patriots are going to have to do
a lot better against Darren McFadden this week, or things will get
ugly again for the Patriots real fast.

Somehow, the Falcons season is already on the brink. If they
fall to 1-3, especially against the struggling Seahawks, there's
going to be a real question about what teams they can
beat, especially on the road.

Through week 3, the Lions, 49ers, and Ravens have the league's
best turnover differential at +6; the Bills are right behind at
+5. The Steelers have by far the worst at -9; the Chargers and
Chiefs are tied for second at -6.

The Bears (14), Seahawks (14), and Falcons (13) have given up
the most sacks so far. The Raiders (2), Bills (2), Patriots (3),
and Browns (3) the fewest.

Defensively, the Cowboys have the most sacks at 13, which
suggests that it's not just Tony Romo's grittiness that's been
winning them games. The Bills (2), Chiefs (3), and Jaguars (3)
have the fewest sacks.

Tuesday, September 27, 2011

Kevin Kolb looked very much the inexperienced quarterback in this
game. His passing numbers don't look awful (64% completion rate and
252 yards passing), but the Cardinals had 7 drives that ended with a
punt or interception. The offense only managed to score 10 points,
and the defense is nowhere near good enough to make that stick as a
win, even against the lowly Seahawks.

Jets @ Raiders

The Jets defense did not have an answer for Darren McFadden (171
yards on 19 carries). The Jets' offense was (barely) keeping up
until their special teams lost a muffed kickoff, giving the Raiders
a short field, and shortly thereafter, a two score lead that proved
more than the Jets could overcome.

Split Picks: (APR: 4-4, SRS 4-4, Line 5-3)

Dolphins (SRS) @ Browns (APR, Line)

Neither one of these teams looks especially good, but in this
game, it was the Browns who were able to rise to the challenge,
mounting a late clock-killing drive for the go-ahead score.

Texans (SRS) @ Saints (APR, Line)

This was actually a low scoring game for three quarters, with the
Texans more-or-less in control, culminating with a 9-point lead
early in the 4th quarter. But that's when the wheels came off for
the Texans. The Saints' offense scored touchdowns on three
consecutive drives, and the Texans offense just couldn't keep up.

49ers (SRS) @ Bengals (APR, Line)

This was a game of offensive futility, featuring 14 total punts, 2
lost fumbles, and 2 interceptions. The 49ers offense was marginally
less futile, and managed to eke out the win.

Patriots (SRS, Line) @ Bills (APR)

Tom Brady threw 4 interceptions
for the first time since
2004. I'm not convinced the Bills are especially good (coming
back from an 18-point deficit twice in a row is really not a good
thing, even if you are 3-0), but they are good enough to beat even
the Patriots given that many extra chances at the ball.

Giants (SRS) @ Eagles (APR, Line)

Another breakdown by the Eagles' defense, and another game that
Vick couldn't finish, and Kafka couldn't save. Perhaps most
surprising, the Giants' injury-depleted defense was still able to
hold the Eagles to just 16 points.

Jaguars (APR) @ Panthers (SRS, Line)

APR is still a little flakey after two weeks, so outside knowledge
(like the fact that Luke McCown is a bad quarterback, and Cam Newton
probably isn't) makes this pick look odd. On the other hand, the
Panthers did lose to a pretty bad Cardinals team, and barely beat a
really bad Jaguars team. Cam Newton has put up some pretty
impressive passing statistics, but as a team, the Panthers really
haven't proved much of anything yet.

Broncos (APR) @ Titans (SRS, Line)

Except for their close loss to the highly-ranked Raiders, I don't
have a good explanation for why APR likes the Broncos so much.
Meanwhile, Matt Hasselbeck continues his late career resurgence,
leading the Titans to another win with 311 yards passing and two
touchdowns. Meanwhile, the Seahawks management is left to wonder
"what have we done?"

Redskins (SRS) @ Cowboys (APR, Line)

For the second week in a row, the Cowboys scrape out a
come-from-behind win, and APR has them in the top 5 for it. They
may not be the most dominating team ever, but a couple wins over
teams with winning records is more than the Falcons, Bears, and
Eagles can say right now.

Big movers: the 49ers (↑10) and Eagles (↓8) are the only teams that moved more than 6 spots. Things are settling down, though I'm not sure how much I trust some of the rankings yet...

The Packers, Lions, and Bills are the only teams left
undefeated after 3 weeks of play.

So, thanks to torrential rain, the Panthers barely cover their
3½ line. And the Chargers, who don't have any weather
issues, barely managed to beat the hapless Chiefs, and didn't come
anywhere near covering their 15 point line. More evidence that I
should just never say anything about the size of the point
spreads.

The Raiders and Bills both add a statement win to their resume
this week. How long they can keep things going is an open
question, but as long as they keep winning, APR will keep them
ranked high.

The Broncos are benefiting from a couple 3-point losses to two
highly ranked 2-1 teams (the Raiders and Titans). But unless the
Packers overlook them, they should fall out of the top 10 and
maybe out of the top 15 next week.

The good news for the Bears is, they only allowed 3 sacks in
Sunday's game, half of last week's total. The bad news is, 3
sacks a game is still way too many if they want Jay Cutler to
stay healthy the whole season.

The Steelers' victory Sunday night is one of their least
impressive in recent memory. More turnovers and just barely
beating a very bad Colts team on a last-second field goal doesn't
bode well at all for another playoff run.

The Rams are a really bad team. Even well into garbage time,
their offense only managed one drive longer than 33 yards, and the
Raven's were able to drive on their defense pretty much at
will.

The Packers, Lions, and Bills are the only teams left
undefeated after 3 weeks of play.

So, thanks to torrential rain, the Panthers barely cover their
3½ line. And the Chargers, who don't have any weather
issues, barely managed to beat the hapless Chiefs, and didn't come
anywhere near covering their 15 point line. More evidence that I
should just never say anything about the size of the point
spreads.

The Raiders and Bills both add a statement win to their resume
this week. How long they can keep things going is an open
question, but as long as they keep winning, APR will keep them
ranked high.

The Broncos are benefiting from a couple 3-point losses to two
highly ranked 2-1 teams (the Raiders and Titans). But unless the
Packers overlook them, they should fall out of the top 10 and
maybe out of the top 15 next week.

The good news for the Bears is, they only allowed 3 sacks in
Sunday's game, half of last week's total. The bad news is, 3
sacks a game is still way too many if they want Jay Cutler to
stay healthy the whole season.

The Steelers' victory Sunday night is one of their least
impressive in recent memory. More turnovers and just barely
beating a very bad Colts team on a last-second field goal doesn't
bode well at all for another playoff run.

The Rams are a really bad team. Even well into garbage time,
their offense only managed one drive longer than 33 yards, and the
Raven's were able to drive on their defense pretty much at
will.

Like the Ravens, the Bears have had 7½ months to stew
over a late-round playoff loss to a division rival. Unlike the
Ravens, the Bears have the added sting of a home loss, and the
knowledge that a loss this week will put them a long ways back
from the division lead. This will be a hard-fought game.

I wonder how much NBC wants a do-over for the two early-season
Colts games they picked for Sunday Night Football.

The 49ers have won just 4
non-division road games since 2002. This week's game at the
Bengals is probably the 49ers best chance to add to that total
this year, and an early sign as to whether the Cardinals will
have a challenger for the NFC West this year.

Bucs -1½ is line-speak for "we have no idea how this
game is going to go". Last year, the Falcons swept the Bucs, but
both games were close. The Falcons seemed to have dropped off
from last year, so yeah, this could be a game that turns on the
outcome of one play, one bounce of the ball.

Can the Chiefs even come close to holding the Chargers to a 15
point margin of victory? They haven't shown much ability to slow
down or keep up with their opponents so far. I don't see any
reason that will be different this week.

Unsurprisingly, the Panthers are favored to win for the first
time. Especially after the way the Jaguars got blown out by the
Jets, this feels like another "give the points" game.

I should say, by way of disclaimer, that my record of picking
games against the line is horrible, and if you actually bet money
on a game, you must do so on your own responsibility.

The Vikings have been a great first-half team so far, outscoring
their opponents a combined 34-7. The bad news is, the NFL insists
that games be played for four quarters. And the Vikings have been a
different, far worse team in the second half, giving up a total of
41 points, and scoring none.

Eagles @ Falcons

The way this game went, you'd think that Michael Vick was the
Eagles' most important player on defense. When he was in the game,
the Falcons' offense was mostly stopped cold by the Eagles defense.
When Vick got knocked out late in the 3rd quarter, all the Eagles' D
needed to do was protect their 10 point lead for just less than 17
minutes of football time. But somehow that never happened. The
Falcons' offense was able to move the ball down the field
for two 80-yard touchdown plays. Vick's loss was a blow to the
offense, but the Eagles defensive collapse was at least as big an
issue.

Ravens @ Titans

We saw this last year in the playoff game against the Saints, and
now again in this game: Matt Hasselbeck can still throw the ball.
And when he has a good game, he can throw well on even a good
defense. Meanwhile, the Ravens discover that playing on emotion can
only get you so far.

Split Picks: (APR: 0-7, SRS 3-4, Line 7-0)

Ouch. Easily APRs' worst week to date.

Bengals (APR, SRS) @ Broncos (Line)

So, it's no surprise that the Bengals, with their rookie
quarterback, went to Denver and came away with a loss, right? What
is a surprise is that Andy Dalton looked pretty good: 332 yards and
2 touchdowns passing, with no interceptions. Dalton still has a
ways to go, but somehow I think Bengals' fans may actually have
reason to be optimistic about the future.

Bears (APR, SRS) @ Saints (Line)

In week 1, the Bears won because of 3 big plays, and a smothering
defense that Matt Ryan just couldn't get started against. In week
2, they faced a quarterback who did get going against their
defense. And while the Bears did have a few big plays, it wasn't
nearly enough to keep up.

Seahawks (APR, SRS) @ Steelers (Line)

So, the rumors of the Steelers' demise turn out to be greatly
exaggerated. And with the Ravens' face-plant against the Titans,
the AFC North is still very much in play.

Cardinals (APR) @ Redskins (SRS, Line)

Sometimes, a game is a battle between two teams to see which one
is best. And sometimes, it's a battle to see which one is worst.
In spite of two interceptions, 3 sacks, and 97 penalty yards, the
Cardinals led for most of this game. But the defense let the
Redskins drive for a couple late scores that gave them the lead.
The Cardinals' last chance was snuffed out on a final, lost fumble.
Both of these teams are better than they were last year, but that's
a low bar to clear, and they've both got a long way to go to contend
at the highest levels of the league.

Raiders (APR) @ Bills (SRS, Line)

I could've used that "sometimes it's a battle to see which one is
worst" bit for this game, too. Instead, I will just say that it's
really not a good thing when your opponent scores 35 points, even if
you do win the game.

Chargers (APR) @ Patriots (SRS, Line)

What's wrong with the Patriots offense? Yeah, Brady put up
impressive passing numbers. But their defense turned the Chargers
away from the endzone time after time, had 4 take-aways, and somehow
this game was within 7 points until very late in the 4th quarter.
It seems to me with an advantage like that, the Patriots should've
put this game away much earlier.

Cowboys (Line) @ 49ers (APR, SRS)

I'm not sure what to make of the Cowboys. Last week, they took
the Jets to the wire, and except for a couple of mistakes, could've
easily won. This week, they need a late comeback and overtime to
get by the 49ers. On second thought, maybe that says exactly where
the Cowboys are right now: inconsistent.

The Packers are 2-0, but after giving up nearly 400 passing
yards twice in a row, there has to be some real concern that their
defense has had a major drop-off.

On the other hand, every other NFC playoff team is 1-1(*), and
each appears to have troubles of their own. Could
the Lions be the Packers biggest threat to a repeat Super
Bowl appearance?

The Bills, Raiders, and Broncos appear to be holding each other
up in the rankings without much actual support. I expect most if
not all will all fall back at least to the middle of the rankings
in the next week or two.

I figured the Chiefs would struggle this season, but with
Jamaal Charles out for the season, there has to be a real question
if they can even win 4 games this year.

Jay Cutler has been sacked 11 times in two games. The Bears
O-line needs to get a lot better, really fast, if they want Cutler
to stay healthy down the stretch.

(*) ETA: Except, I guess, the Seahawks. They still count as a playoff team, right?

For the first time, there are a couple of matchups of teams
tied in the rankings. One each for APR (Jaguars @ Jets) and SRS
(Buccaneers @ Vikings). These will be counted as ties in the
result tallies.

Bears @ Saints will be a marquee matchup of the afternoon, and
a game that the Saints will need to win to avoid falling to 0-2.
It will definitely be interesting to see how Brees does against
the Bears pass rush, especially Julius Peppers.

APR's pick of the Raiders seems pretty flukey to me. In the 8
seasons since their Super Bowl run, the Raiders have won just 6
road games outside the AFC West.

Speaking of flukey, the Seahawks over the Steelers? Even a
struggling Steelers team should be able to handle the Seahawks,
especially in Pittsburgh.

Is the Rams' season already over? They'll be on the road
facing a Giants' squad stinging from a 14-point loss to the
Redskins. After that, they've got the Ravens, Packers, Cowboys,
and Saints coming up. Especially without Steven Jackson, they
could easily have 5 or 6 losses before they play their first
division game week 9.

The Cardinals haven't won at the Redskins since 2000. Kevin
Kolb still looked pretty green last Sunday, so it seems likely the
Cardinals RFK/Landover losing streak will extend past next
week.

The Falcons made a handful of costly mistakes in this game:
letting a screen pass go 56 yards for a touchdown, letting Devon
Hester get 53 yards on another short pass, and giving up another
touchdown to Brian Urlacher on a fumble-sack. Take away even two of
those mistakes, and this is a much closer game, and one that the
Falcons could have easily won.

Lions @ Buccaneers

Another game that tends to confirm my preseason evaluations. The
Lions can't be real happy about nearly letting this one slip away,
but it's a good sign that they were able to hold on to a win on the
road.

Giants @ Redskins

The Giants plain got out-played in this game. Rex Grossman had a
career day against their defense, and their offense couldn't move
the ball—just 3 drives longer than 19 yards.

Bengals @ Browns

The Browns just aren't good enough to win when they only score 17
points. Especially when the defense lets Cedric Benson run up and
down the field.

Split Picks: (Pythag: 1-3, Line: 3-1)

Raiders (Pythag) @ Broncos (Line)

The Broncos lack of rushing defense strikes again: 190 yards
allowed, including 150 by Darren McFadden. An interception and two
lost fumbles ended drives that could have given the Broncos the
points they needed to win.

Titans (Pythag) @ Jaguars (Line)

The two things that stand out to me in this game is the lack of
production from Chris Johnson (9 carries for 24 yards), and the
Titans 3rd down conversion rate (4 of 11). On the other side, Luke
McCown didn't do anything disastrous, the Jaguars rushed for 163
yards, and converted 9 of 18 3rd downs. Not the most amazing
performance this week, but it was enough to get the Jaguars by the
Titans.

Colts (Pythag) @ Titans (Line)

No prizes for guessing that the Colts would struggle without
Peyton Manning, or that Kerry Collins would look very rusty after
missing almost the whole preseason. Still, that was even worse than
I was expecting. If Collins had not fumbled twice, and the Colts
special teams had not given up a touchdown... well, at least the
Texans would've had to play into the second half to win the game.

Steelers (Pythag) @ Ravens (Line)

An ugly game for the defending AFC Champions. The headline has
been the Steelers' seven turnovers, but their defense wasn't
stopping the Ravens' offense even when they needed to drive the
field. The good news for the Steelers is they now have a pretty
soft stretch in their schedule, and will have every chance to get
things fixed before the rematch in week 9.

As usual, don't read too much into these rankings. Things will
be a lot more settled in a couple more weeks.

The good news for the Packers is they score 42 points on the
Saints. The bad news is they pretty much needed all of them to
win. I know Drew Brees is a very good quarterback, but the
Packers defense missed a lot of tackles they really
should have made.

That was a really bad loss for the Steelers. This is only the
second loss by 28+
points in more than 20 years.

McNabb and the Vikings offense were pretty bad: 39 total yards
passing. And yet, somehow they had the lead going into the 4th
quarter. The Vikings will have to do a lot better to avoid a
last-place finish in the NFC North.

Cam Newton looked good (especially for a rookie), and seemed to
pick up Cardinals' blitz well. We'll see how it goes once teams
start to get more game footage of Newton to study, but it sure
looks like the Panthers picked the right quarterback this
time.

Tarvaris Jackson actually had an OK game for the Seahawks, but
a slow start let the 49ers build a lead, and a couple of
special-teams breakdowns put the game out of reach before the
Seahawks could catch up.

The Cowboys' O-line doesn't look much better than it did last
year: Romo was sacked 4 times. He'll have a tough time finishing
the year (again) at that rate.

As usual, week 1 picks are based on each team's Pythagorean
projection. This year, the standard and Road/Home versions are in
unanimous agreement.

The NFL started opening the regular season with a game on
Thursday night in 2002. Since then, the home team is 8-1 in these
games.

Most of these games have finished relatively close. The Colts
are the only team that won by more than 11 points, ironically
beating the Saints 41-10 to open the 2007 season.

Speaking of the Colts, Peyton Manning's health has been a big
issue. In 2008, when Manning missed the preseason with a knee
issue, the Colts started out 3-4 in their first 7 games, so it's
no stretch to predict the Colts will struggle again this year.
But the Colts finished 2008 with 9 wins and a 12-4 record, so it's
too early to call them out of it as long as Manning can eventually
get back under center.

The one pick that seems most likely to be wrong is for Lions @
Buccaneers. The Lions (especially on defense) look a lot better
than they were last year, while the Bucs look more-or-less the
same as last year (an OK team that took full advantage of a very
soft schedule). This will definitely be a game to keep an eye on
Sunday afternoon.

Update: wow! Reports are coming in Tuesday afternoon
that the Jaguars have cut their erstwhile starting quarterback
(and one of the few bright spots on offense last year) David Garrard.
Adjust your expectations accordingly.

Friday, September 2, 2011

The 1958 season is probably the lowest point in the history of the
Green Bay Packers franchise. In 12 games played, they managed only
one win and one tie. To date, it's the only season the Packers
didn't manage at least two wins. But if you look at
the
roster for that 1958 team, there are a lot of familiar names,
including some Hall-of-Fame players: Bart Starr, Paul Hornung, Max
McGee, Jim Ringo, Ray Nitschke, Forrest Gregg, Jim Taylor. All of
these guys played important roles in the Packers' championship runs
of the 1960s.

But one of the key pieces for the Packers didn't arrive until 1959:
Coach Vince Lombardi. When he took over, he had an immediate
impact: in Lombardi's first season, the Packers had a winning record
for the first time since 1947. In Lombardi's second season, the
Packers returned to the playoffs for the first time since 1944.

50 years ago this month, the Packers began their third season under
Coach Lombardi, and he took the first step from local hero to
all-time NFL great. In 1961, the Packers won the NFL Western
division, advancing to the Championship game, where
they
beat the New York Giants in convincing fashion.

The 1961 season was the start of a (so far) unprecedented streak of
5 NFL Championships (and victories in the first two Super Bowls),
accomplished in just 7 years. No other team, no other coach has
matched that level of dominance. The Browns played in 6 straight
NFL championship games from 1950-1955 (winning 3). The Steelers
with coach Chuck Noll won 4 Super Bowls in 6 years in the 1970s.
The 49ers won 4 Super Bowls in the 1980s, and another after the 1994
season under coaches Bill Walsh and George Seifert. Those are the
only cases where any teams have even come close to matching what Coach
Lombardi and the Green Bay Packers accomplished in the 1960s.

Vince Lombardi stepped down as head coach of the Packers after the
1967 season, and it quickly became apparent that he was a keystone
of those championship teams. In the 24 seasons following Coach
Lombardi's resignation, the Packers had just 4 winning seasons and
two playoff appearances. This streak of futility didn't end until
1992, when newly-hired General Manager Ron Wolf brought in Mike
Holmgren to be head coach, along with players like Brett Favre and
Reggie White to be the core of a new championship run.

When Coach Lombardi arrived in Green Bay, the Packers could already
lay claim to 6 NFL Championship titles. When he left, that total
had been raised to 11, and Green Bay had an indisputable claim to
the nickname "Titletown". And since his name was given to the Super
Bowl trophy, the name "Lombardi" has become justifiably associated
with success at the highest level of professional football.