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GDPNow, FRBNY Nowcast Inch Up: Gap Still Two Percent

Te Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model inched up to 1.0% from 0.9% on Friday. Nothing much mattered since a week ago.

The FRBNY Nowcast Model inched up to 2.96% from 2.83% but rounding makes it appears as a 0.2% increase.

GDPNow Latest forecast: 1.0 percent — March 24, 2017

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2017 is 1.0 percent on March 24, up from 0.9 percent on March 16. The forecast for first-quarter real nonresidential equipment investment growth increased from 7.3 percent to 7.8 percent after this morning’s durable manufacturing report from the U.S. Census Bureau. The forecast of the contribution of inventory investment to first-quarter growth increased from –0.87 percentage points to –0.77 percentage points after last Friday’s industrial production release from the Federal Reserve Board.

FRBNY Nowcast Latest forecast: 1.0 percent — March 24, 2017

The FRBNY Staff Nowcast stands at 3.0% for 2017:Q1 and 2.7% for 2017:Q2.

News from this week’s data releases had a small positive impact on the nowcasts for both quarters, driven by new home sales data and the advance durable goods report.

So here we are with a full 2 percentage point gap between the forecasts with an alleged margin of error for each of 1 percentage point.

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8 thoughts on “GDPNow, FRBNY Nowcast Inch Up: Gap Still Two Percent”

So far, the NY Fed’s numbers have been completely wrong, estimate after estimate after estimate. I guess Mish feels he has to include them for completeness, but on that idea he should include african tribal witch doctors reading animal entrails too (they might be more accurate than the NY Fed).

Even if we discard the Atlanta Fed’s numbers and pretend like the NY Fed numbers have any connection to reality… 3% alleged growth is not enough to keep the debt fantasy going.

I agree with you LFOldtimer, but now Mish is going to do yet another post on self driving…

Meanwhile, George Soros’ army of paid “volunteer” commenters seem to have found Mish’s blog and are writing some of the most inane and untrue bullsh!t. I wish those ignorant losers would take Obama and move to Venezuela where their socialist utopia has already been realized. You might think Detroit and Chicago and Valeho would have given them clues they couldn’t ignore. But US voters often have to learn things the hard way…

Was it Churchill who said Americans can always be counted on to do the right thing, after they have tried everything else?

you can’t be bothered to read the very short article you referenced???

what the #$%^ is wrong with you???

the third paragraph clearly states the uber vehicle was not at fault, “The Uber vehicle was not responsible for the incident and there were no injuries, Tempe police information officer Josie Montenegro told Bloomberg News. Another car failed to yield for the Uber car, causing the autonomous vehicle to flip on its side, according to the police report.”

Here’s a fantastic blog post from Scott Adams, who makes the Dilbert cartoon but has a personal interest in persuasion and psychology… He says he voted for Hilary (he lives in California, and they don’t tolerate other ideas), but he predicted Trump would win based on whatever psycho-persuasion theories. But Bloomberg “news” couldn’t hack the idea of a famous person predicting a Trump win, so they sent a reporter out to rip Adams apart for a psychology theory even though Adams voted Bloomberg’s way

The first automobile accident happened at the corner of High St. and Broad St. in Columbus, Ohio. That’s pretty much the center of Ohio. Number of automobiles in the State of Ohio at the time? Two. Yeah. It’s going to be a company other than Uber to win this. Maybe Google. Of course, somebody doesn’t like Uber. It’s taken a bunch of abuse recently, much of it deserved.

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