Intrinsic value of Commerce Bancshares - CBSH

Our model is not good at valuating stocks of financial companies, such as CBSH.

We calculate the intrinsic value of CBSH stock by summing up the current values of future distributable cash flows generated by the company and dividing the sum by the number of outstanding shares. As such, the intrinsic value calculation depends entirely on projections. The more accurate your projections of the company's performance are - the more reliable is the intrinsic value calculation result. Please make sure to check the stock valuation input data below and adjust it if necessary. The quality of the output (intrinsic valuation result) is only as good as the quality of the input. See also DISCLAIMERS.

STOCK VALUATION INPUT DATA

Initial revenue growth rate, %

Terminal revenue growth rate, %

Revenue decline factor

Initial discount rate, %

Discount rate multiplier

Shares outstanding, mln

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year

2016(a)

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2036

2037

2038

2039

2040

2041

2042

2043

2044

2045

2046

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %

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-100.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Revenue, $m

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Variable operating expenses, $m

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Fixed operating expenses, $m

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total operating expenses, $m

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Operating income, $m

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

EBITDA, $m

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Interest expense (income), $m

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Earnings before tax, $m

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Tax expense, $m

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Net income, $m

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $m

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total assets, $m

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Revenue / Adjusted assets

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0.000

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0.000

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0.000

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0.000

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0.000

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0.000

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0.000

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0.000

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0.000

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0.000

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0.000

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0.000

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0.000

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0.000

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0.000

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0.000

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0.000

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0.000

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0.000

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0.000

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0.000

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0.000

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0.000

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0.000

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0.000

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0.000

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0.000

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0.000

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0.000

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0.000

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0.000

Average production assets, $m

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Working capital, $m

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total debt, $m

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total liabilities, $m

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total equity, $m

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total liabilities and equity, $m

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Debt-to-equity ratio

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0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

0.000

Adjusted equity ratio

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0.000

Commerce Bancshares, Inc. is a bank holding company of Commerce Bank (the Bank). The Bank is engaged in general banking business, providing a range of retail, mortgage banking, corporate, investment, trust and asset management products and services to individuals and businesses. The Company operates through three segments: Consumer, Commercial and Wealth. The Consumer segment includes the consumer portion of the retail branch network (loans, deposits and other personal banking services), indirect and other consumer financing, and consumer debit and credit bank cards. The Commercial segment provides corporate lending, leasing, international services, and business, government deposit, and related commercial cash management services, as well as merchant and commercial bank card products. The Wealth segment provides traditional trust and estate tax planning, advisory and discretionary investment management, and brokerage services, and includes the Private Banking product portfolio.

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FINANCIAL RATIOS of Commerce Bancshares (CBSH)

Valuation Ratios

P/E Ratio

0

Price to Sales

0

Price to Book

0

Price to Tangible Book

Price to Cash Flow

0

Price to Free Cash Flow

0

Growth Rates

Sales Growth Rate

-100%

Sales - 3 Yr. Growth Rate

%

EPS Growth Rate

%

EPS - 3 Yr. Growth Rate

%

Capital Spending Gr. Rate

NaN%

Cap. Spend. - 3 Yr. Gr. Rate

NaN%

Financial Strength

Quick Ratio

NaN

Current Ratio

NaN

LT Debt to Equity

0%

Total Debt to Equity

0%

Interest Coverage

0

Management Effectiveness

Return On Assets

0%

Ret/ On Assets - 3 Yr. Avg.

0%

Return On Total Capital

0%

Ret/ On T. Cap. - 3 Yr. Avg.

0%

Return On Equity

0%

Return On Equity - 3 Yr. Avg.

0%

Asset Turnover

0

Profitability Ratios

Gross Margin

0%

Gross Margin - 3 Yr. Avg.

0%

EBITDA Margin

0%

EBITDA Margin - 3 Yr. Avg.

0%

Operating Margin

0%

Oper. Margin - 3 Yr. Avg.

0%

Pre-Tax Margin

0%

Pre-Tax Margin - 3 Yr. Avg.

0%

Net Profit Margin

0%

Net Profit Margin - 3 Yr. Avg.

0%

Effective Tax Rate

0%

Eff/ Tax Rate - 3 Yr. Avg.

0%

Payout Ratio

0%

CBSH stock valuation input parameters

Revenue. Company's revenue (or sales) is always the starting point of any cash flow forecast. In the CBSH stock intrinsic value calculation we used $ million for the last fiscal year's total revenue generated by Commerce Bancshares. The default revenue input number comes from 2016 income statement of Commerce Bancshares. You may change it if you feel that it should be adjusted for some unusual circumstances that are not expected to be repeated in the future or if you already know (from interim financial statements, for example) that this year's revenue is going to be quite different.

Revenue growth rate. Forecasted future revenue growth rate is the most important input parameter for the intrinsic value calculation. Unlike other input parameters that are reasonably expected to be in line with their historic averages or their historic trends, the revenue growth rate by and large is a wild card: nobody really knows what the company's revenue will be in the future. Of course, the level of unpredictability is different for different industries (utility companies being the most predictable and, thus, less risky).
We use three input parameters to forecast the revenue growth rate in our CBSH stock valuation model: a) initial revenue growth rate of 0% whose default value is the revenue growth rate in the most recent quarter compared to the quarterly revenue a year ago; b) terminal revenue growth rate of 5% whose default value is chosen to be close to the average nominal (i.e. not adjusted for inflation) GDP growth rate; and c) revenue decline factor of 0.9, which stipulates that revenue growth rate in each forecasted year will be equal to the difference of the revenue growth rate in the preceding year and the terminal revenue growth rate multiplied by this revenue decline factor (with the passage of time the revenue growth rate will be approaching the terminal revenue growth rate, but not quite reaching it - though the difference could be infinitesimally small).
At the revenue decline factor of 1, the future revenue growth rate is forecasted to be constant and equal to the initial revenue growth rate. The smaller the revenue decline factor, the faster the revenue growth rate will approach the terminal revenue growth.

Discount rate. The discount rate is used for determining the present value of future cash flows: future cash flows are "discounted" as at normal conditions (that translate into positive expected return on investment) one dollar today is worth more than the same dollar in the future. Unlike all other valuation models, we use variable discount rate, i.e. it increases for each consecutive year. This is done to account for higher risk of cash flows coming in further in the future.
The initial discount rate of 0%, whose default value for CBSH is calculated based on our internal credit rating of Commerce Bancshares, is applied to the cash flow expected to be received a year from now (well, actually, to be precise, in the financial year following the base year - the last year for which we have financial statements). For each consecutive year the discount rate is multiplied by the discount rate multiplier of 1.05, e.i. each year it increases by 5%. Feel free to change this number to correspond to your level of risk assessment of Commerce Bancshares.
By the way, it is easy to set the discount rate to be constant (this would make comparison with other valuation models easier): just set the discount rate multiplier equal to 1 and chose the magnitude of the initial discount rate to your liking.

Variable cost ratio is the ratio of variable costs (i.e. costs that fluctuate with fluctuation of the volume of production) to the revenue expressed as a percentage. In the calculation of intrinsic value of CBSH stock the variable cost ratio is equal to 0%.

Fixed operating expenses is just that - expenses that are not dependant on the volume of production. They are set to $ million in the base year in the intrinsic value calculation for CBSH stock. These expenses increase with the level of inflation in subsequent years.

Interest rate on debt is the average all-in rate of interest paid by the company on its debt. It is set at 0% for Commerce Bancshares.

Corporate tax rate of 27% is the nominal tax rate for Commerce Bancshares. In reality, companies find ways to pay much less taxes than that or not to pay them at all.

Cash flow adjustment could be used for any adjustment the investor deems necessary. Most commonly we use this field to account for stock options-related effects in excess of what is reported on the company's income statement. The cash flow adjustment is expressed as a percentage of the revenue, and in the current valuation of the CBSH stock is equal to 0%.

Production assets are the company's assets used for manufacturing products or provision of services. In the valuation model input table they are expressed as a percentage of revenue and for CBSH are equal to 0%.

Life of production assets of years is the average useful life of capital assets used in Commerce Bancshares operations. It is used to calculate yearly capital expenditures needed to keep these assets in good order - we call it the maintenance CAPEX.

Working capital is the difference between the company's current assets and liabilities. In the model we use the ratio of working capital to revenue, which for CBSH is equal to 0%. A negative number means that the company is apt at using financial resources of its suppliers and customers; a large positive number, on the other hand, means that it either provides in-kind financing to others or is not good at managing its inventories.

Book value of equity - $ million for Commerce Bancshares - is used in calculation of the "floor" for intrinsic valuation based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. Even if the prospects are very bad for a company, its assets could always be sold now for their current fair market value.

Shares outstanding of 107.987 million for Commerce Bancshares is needed to calculate the intrinsic value of one share.

Market capitalization is used here only for reference purposes and as a quick check that the share price and the number of shares outstanding numbers are correct - something especially to be cognizant about at stock splits. So, the market capitalization of Commerce Bancshares at the current share price and the inputted number of shares is $6.4 billion.