posted at 8:50 pm on September 4, 2012 by Allahpundit

Just 47 percent of registered voters in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll see Obama favorably overall, down 7 percentage points from his recent peak in April, while 49 percent rate him unfavorably. He’s numerically underwater in this group for the first time since February.

The decline has occurred entirely among women registered voters – from 57-39 percent favorable-unfavorable in April to a numerically negative 46-50 percent now. That’s Obama’s lowest score among women voters – a focus of recent political positioning – in ABC/Post polls since he took office. Unusually, his rating among men, 50-47 percent favorable-unfavorable, is numerically better than it is among women, albeit not by a significant margin.

The result is not the only sign of the work ahead for Obama among women. In a separate ABC/Post poll last week, he led Romney among women registered voters in vote preference by just 6 points, 49-43 percent. In 2008, Obama won women by 13 points, 56-43 percent.

WaPo/ABC conducted their poll of registered voters from August 29 — halfway through the convention, before Romney spoke — through September 2. This afternoon’s CNN poll was conducted from August 31, the day after the convention ended, through September 3. Here’s what CNN got from women voters on Obama’s favorability — among likely voters:

Likely voters are more pro-Romney than registered voters are, so that +12 spread among women for O must be even bigger among CNN’s sample of registereds. I have no idea how to square that with WaPo/ABC’s finding that O’s popularity has begun to tank. My inclination is that WaPo’s an outlier since virtually every other poll shows women preferring The One to Mitt, but maybe there’s a convention effect happening here. Note the trendlines in WaPo/ABC’s data:

Mitt gained seven points and Obama lost five among women after the convention. Even in the CNN poll, where O’s numbers among women are rosy, Romney gained five points on the question of which candidate is more in touch with the problems facing women today. (He still trails Obama on that point by a wide, wide margin, though.) So maybe the GOP’s efforts to “humanize” Romney, capped by Ann’s speech on Tuesday night, did some good after all and improved his image with women. That probably moved some women’s votes towards Mitt too, although WaPo/ABC doesn’t say. Assuming the WaPo numbers tonight are correct, though, then how to explain Obama’s decline among women before the GOP convention? He was at 57 percent favorable with them back in April, but as of August 26th, he was down to just a 51/45 split. Democrats have been pounding the “war on women” crap relentlessly too. Maybe his campaign’s sharp negativity over the summer alienated some women voters? Or maybe, as I suggested earlier, the WaPo/ABC poll is a big ol’ outlier? Help me out here, guys. I really do want to believe.

There are two possible explanations for the disparity between the ABC poll and the CNN poll.

One is the demographic breakdown of the poll. We know that Romney leads among married women, and that Obama leads with single women. It’s possible that either poll over samples either group. My suspicion is that the guilty party in this case is CNN, as the results to certain questions suggest that the sample was considerable more d-leaning than normal.

The second explanation is that the ABC poll was asked mainly during or shortly after the convention, where-as the CNN poll was asked primarily during the weekend. Weekend polls tend to favor democrats simply because republicans and R-leaning independents are more likely to be at church, or out on family activities, thus skewing the potential sample a significant degree. Some pollsters are aware of this and try to compensate, but many don’t attempt to compensate at all, thus why PPP polls mainly during weekends. Furthermore, this weekend was a three day holiday, which would have further compounded the typical weekend advantage democrats have.

Think of it this way, if you have money, are reasonably financially secure, and have a family, there’s a much greater chance that you’re going to gather up your kids and go camping during labor day. It’s also far more likely that you’re a Republican or D-leaning independent, as democrats tend to skew towards the lower income brackets.

ALL of that said, I suspect that overall Obama probably still leads with women, and that the ABC poll likely somewhat overstates the shift. Even during the height of a convention, thats just a little too abrupt for my taste. However, I do think we’re seeing a trend towards seeing womens voters becoming a more competitive demographic.

We’ve seen a gradual shift for several demographics becoming more competitive in recent months, and this would seem to fall in line with that trend. If it holds up, Obama is in big trouble, as his re-election strategy hinges heavily on taking women, latino’s, and African Americans heavily, and splitting the white male vote just enough to offset his overall loss there.

If Romney gets anywhere close to parity in 2/3 of the demographics, and indeed carries the white vote heavily, then he wins by a landslide.

Dems wanted to make this a “War on Women” election and they got it. Unfortunately, us women are more concerned with putting food on our dinner tables and putting gas in our car than we are with snuffing out our unborn children. Own it dems.

And MOST women, young and old, all ages, don’t find the issue of pushing abortions to be appealing.

Even to the most callous, that sort of flippancy about abortion is truly repulsive. And Obama is looking quite repulsive because of that view, among many of his other views and inept acts.

Lourdes on September 4, 2012 at 8:58 PM

Lies! Everyone with an IQ over 45 (which excludes most of you RethugliKKKlan$) knows that all womyn, even the 75-year-old militant lesbians, vote solely on whether or not she has access to abortion and contraceptive services.

If these women experience any shame or doubt at all, it exists only because lying reaKKKtionary Christofascists like you have maliciously instilled it into the fabric of our culture with your campaign of lies designed to enslave womyn.

/troll

My trolling skills are a little rusty. Hopefully that turned out okay. ;-)

. Assuming the WaPo numbers tonight are correct, though, then how to explain Obama’s decline among women before the GOP convention? He was at 57 percent favorable with them back in April, but as of August 26th, he was down to just a 51/45 split. Democrats have been pounding the “war on women” crap relentlessly too. Maybe his campaign’s sharp negativity over the summer alienated some women voters? Or maybe, as I suggested earlier, the WaPo/ABC poll is a big ol’ outlier? Help me out here, guys. I really do want to believe.

I am a woman…and I have to pay bills, buy gas, and work for a living…maybe these women are getting tired of the empty promises.

I live in the swing state of Colorado. Not that I watch much network tv where the ads would be going full steam ahead, but the only ad I have seen is one that is really pushing hard on the “Romney is bad for women” theme. I tend to think that maybe the Obama internal polling is consistent with the results in this poll and that’s why they are doubling down on this theme. Personally I think all the polls are overstating the Obama strength and that the one could be in for a shellacking in November.

A lot of polls are reducing Ind. to under 4%. What’s up with that? I think they can’t skew the D/R split any more toward Dems, so they’ve begun removing the Ind. so as to bump up Obama’s percentage.

For example: Say we have 33/33/34 DRI split with Romney winning independents by 10%, we get 51.7% of the vote for Romney.

Can’t have that. Breaking 50% is the holy grail of politics. So we skew by D+10. We now have 38/28/34 DRI split. This gives Romney 46.7% and Obama 53.3%. Does this look familiar? Why yes. Yes it does.

Ok, but Romney’s winning even more now. He’s at 15% with Ind. He’s gonna cross 50% even with this D+10% skew. What to do? What to do? We remove the Ind. Bring it down to 5%. I’ve seen 1 to 4% myself. So let’s go with 47/45/4. Note it doesn’t go to 100% anymore. But now, we have 47.2% of the vote for Romney and 47% for Obama. It’s neck in neck. Does this look even more familiar? And yes, I have seen 47% Dems to Obama in a PPP poll and 40% to Obama in a Survey USA poll today.

The reality is that a 32/35/33 DRI with Romney winning Ind. by 15% gives Romney 54% of the vote. Granted he won’t get all R’s, but neither will Obama get all D’s. And give the same amount to D/R and whoever wins the Ind. wins the election. That’s Romney right now.

I don’t get this ‘Crat meme that abortion is the definition of being a woman. Really? The epitome of being a woman is having abortions? As if all American women have had multiple abortions and see having an abortion on demand as a marque of womanhood? Who are these women who need to have abortion on demand and at the taxpayer dime?

The economy?

The availability of jobs?

The value of the dollar?

The value of your home and property?

Your tax bill?

Inflation?

And free and easy guiltless abortion is the American woman’s number one, above all, identity? Blending an infant into a puree in your own body trumps all economic and security concerns? REALLY?

A lot of polls are reducing Ind. to under 4%. What’s up with that? I think they can’t skew the D/R split any more toward Dems, so they’ve begun removing the Ind. so as to bump up Obama’s percentage.

For example: Say we have 33/33/34 DRI split with Romney winning independents by 10%, we get 51.7% of the vote for Romney.

Can’t have that. Breaking 50% is the holy grail of politics. So we skew by D+10. We now have 38/28/34 DRI split. This gives Romney 46.7% and Obama 53.3%. Does this look familiar? Why yes. Yes it does.

Ok, but Romney’s winning even more now. He’s at 15% with Ind. He’s gonna cross 50% even with this D+10% skew. What to do? What to do? We remove the Ind. Bring it down to 5%. I’ve seen 1 to 4% myself. So let’s go with 47/45/4. Note it doesn’t go to 100% anymore. But now, we have 47.2% of the vote for Romney and 47% for Obama. It’s neck in neck. Does this look even more familiar? And yes, I have seen 47% Dems to Obama in a PPP poll and 40% to Obama in a Survey USA poll today.

The reality is that a 32/35/33 DRI with Romney winning Ind. by 15% gives Romney 54% of the vote. Granted he won’t get all R’s, but neither will Obama get all D’s. And give the same amount to D/R and whoever wins the Ind. wins the election. That’s Romney right now.

MrX on September 4, 2012 at 11:49 PM

Another way to see this is that if we all die from 3 diseases and they cure one, the deaths from the other two go up markedly.
Liberals lie using these techniques all the time.

Not familiar with Gravis, but it released 2 polls for OH and FL. RV poll. and Doug Kaplan, the pollster, is a republican ( this is what the DU crowd was focused on when they are discussing the results there).

This is the first I have heard of a $35 million house for Obama in Hawaii. I about fell out of my chair. Talk about being part of the .001%. I guess he doesn’t want to live among the ordinary folks and be a community organizer anymore after he is thrown out of office in November.

Obama is basically saying: Ignore the fact that your husband is underemployed and your unemployed son moved back in to the house, which is upside down on the mortgage. Free BC regardless of need and abortion rights.

That has to ring hollow, regardless of your position on abortion the BC coverage.

I believe these result. Democrats have become the party of Giant Vaginas and free birth control pills. In my limited scope on female matters, women are not pleased. The Giant Vagina thing is downright insulting, and most women are just too tired trying to get by, to be even thinking about sex. The Democrat party has become an absurdity. I think most gals would prefer a Mitt over a Barack.

Women really, really do not like negative campaigns. That’s what they’ve been seeing from Obama. Rising gas prices this summer also are felt keenly by women, and Obama has not said a word about gas prices. So he’s running a campaign they dislike and appears out of touch on the issues that are affecting them right now.

What should really trouble people is this; when Obama ran for office the first time, he successfully let people project all their hopes and dreams upon his bare edifice. Now for the second term, he is trying to get them to perform that same projection with a non-existent second term agenda. Incomplete? What exactly is incomplete?

The message is now- he need more time? More time for what? What is his plan and more importantly, what about the first four years? What did he promise and what did he deliver? When he say he needs more time- for what exactly?

The truth is there are no accomplishments upon which Mr. Obama has delivered. At least not any we wanted or which helped us cure our greatest challenges as a nation. None. He had four years but that wasn’t…enough time? What he has actually done made things worse and yet he is still not changing course.