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Quantifying future emission paths ECOFYS Energy and Environment European research and consulting company In total 250 employees in the Netherlands, Germany, UK, Spain, Poland, Belgium, Italy Example projects: –Evaluation of the national allocation plans of the EU emission trading system for the UK government –Work on future international climate commitments for, e.g., the German Environmental Agency and EU Commission –BASIC project: Capacity building on climate change negotiations with Brazil, China, India and South Africa

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Quantifying future emission paths Content 1. From long-term targets to short term emission levels 2. Emission allowances under various proposals for international climate policy after 2012 and implications for South Africa 3. Conclusions

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Quantifying future emission paths Content 1. From long-term targets to short term emission levels 2. Emission allowances under various proposals for international climate policy after 2012 and implications for South Africa 3. Conclusions

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Quantifying future emission paths Effect of delay of action Delay in the next decades significantly increases the efforts to to achieve the same environmental goal.

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Quantifying future emission paths Conclusions EU target of 2°C above pre-industrial levels: below 450 ppmv CO 2 (average climate sensitivity) To keep 450 ppmv CO 2 within reach –Global emissions need to drop below 1990 levels within a few decades –Developed country emissions would need to be reduced substantially –Developing country emissions need to deviate from the reference as soon as possible, for some countries even as of 2020 (Latin America, Middle East, East Asia) Emissions per capita and GDP/cap of South Africa are above global average. Delay in the next decades significantly increases the efforts to achieve the same environmental goal