predicted drone sales

Annual sales of drones in the U.S. will hit 2.5 million this year and swell to 7 million by 2020, according to a projection from the Federal Aviation Administration. Unmanned aircraft purchases are growing both for hobbyists and for commercial ventures that perform inspections, assist farmers, and survey construction sites, according to the agency’s annual forecast of aviation activity, released on Thursday. While the FAA isn’t expected to issue regulations allowing commercial uses of drones until later this year, it’s granted more than 4,100 exemptions for businesses flying unmanned craft. The initial regulations would allow limited flights during the day and within sight of an operator on the ground, according to the agency. The agency expects to later issue regulations allowing flights over longer distances and for purposes such as delivering products to people’s homes.

Internet giant Alphabet Inc , the new holding company for Google, expects to begin delivering packages to consumers via drones sometime in 2017, the executive in charge of its drone effort said on Nov 2.

David Vos, the leader for Alphabet's Project Wing, said his company is in talks with the Federal Aviation Administration and other stakeholders about setting up an air traffic control system for drones that would use cellular and Internet technology to coordinate unmanned aerial vehicle flights at altitudes under 500 feet (152 meters).

"Our goal is to have commercial business up and running in 2017," he told an audience at an air traffic control convention near Washington.

Alphabet and Amazon.com Inc are among a growing number of companies that intend to make package delivery by drone a reality. But drone deliveries are not expected to take flight until after the FAA publishes final rules for commercial drone operations, which are expected early next year.

Two years after initial research began, Project Wing was announced in August 2014 with a YouTube video showing a field test of its most viable prototype in Australia.

The prototype flown in Australia, 1.5 meters (4.9 feet) wide and 0.8 meters (2.6 feet) tall, shares the same four-propeller quad copter design as popular consumer drones, but the company said consumers can expect to see new vehicle types and shapes as the project unfolds.

Inside the United States, Project Wing has conducted testing with NASA.

Vos, who is co-chair of an FAA task force charged with coming up with a drone registry, said a system for identifying drone operators and keeping UAV away from other aircraft could be set up within 12 months.

"We're pretty much on a campaign here, working with the FAA, working with the small UAV community and the aviation community at large, to move things along," he said.

Vos said a drone registry, which the Obama administration hopes to set in place by Dec. 20, would be a first step toward a system that could use wireless telecommunications and Internet technology including cellphone applications to identify drones and keep UAV clear of other aircraft and controlled airspace.

He said Google would like to see low altitude "Class G" airspace carved out for drones, saying it would keep UAV away from most manned aircraft aside from low-flying helicopters, while enabling drones to fly over highly populated areas. ​

The fast-growing global drone industry has not sat back waiting for government policy to be hammered out before pouring investment and effort into opening up this all-new hardware and computing market. A growing ecosystem of drone software and hardware vendors is already catering to a long list of clients in agriculture, land management, energy, and construction. Many of the vendors are smallish private companies and startups — although large defense-focused companies and industrial conglomerates are beginning to invest in drone technology, too. In a report from BI Intelligence, we take a deep dive into the various levels of the growing global industry for commercial drones, or unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). This 32-page report provides forecasts for the business opportunity in commercial drone technology, looks at advances and persistent barriers, highlights the top business-to-business markets in terms of applications and end users, and provides an exclusive list of dozens of notable companies already active in the space. Finally, it digs into the current state of US regulation of commercial drones, recently upended by the issuing of the Federal Aviation Administration's draft rules for commercial drone flights. Few people know that many companies are already authorized to fly small drones commercially under a US government "exemption" program.

Here are some of the main takeaways from the report:

The global commercial drone market will take shape around applications in a handful of industries: agriculture, energy, utilities, mining, construction, real estate, news media, and film production.

Most growth in the drone industry is on the commercial/civilian side, as the shift away from the military market gains momentum. The market for commercial/civilian drones will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19% between 2015 and 2020, compared with 5% growth on the military side.

E-commerce and package delivery will not be an early focus of the drone industry.

Legacy drone manufacturers focused mostly on military clients do not have a natural advantage in the fast-evolving civilian drone market.

Proposed US regulation would effectively end the ban on commercial drone flights and would allow low-altitude flights of small drones within view of a ground-based pilot. The rules are unlikely to be finalized before early 2017. Some believe it will happen earlier. But we believe it most likely that widespread but heavily restricted commercial UAV flights will become routine sometime that year.

Technology barriers are at once a roadblock and a huge business opportunity.

Many of the notable early commercial UAV manufacturers are emerging outside of the US market: These include Switzerland-based senseFly (owned by France-based Parrot), Canadian firm Aeryon, publicly traded Swedish firm CybAero, Shenzhen, China-based DJI, and Korea-based Gryphon.

The commercial-drone industry is still young but has begun to see some consolidation and major investments from large industrial conglomerates, chip companies, and defense contractors.

The Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Market research report provides the market analysis for UAVs over the next six years (2014 – 2020). It discusses the industry, market, and technology trends that are currently prevailing, in the market. The UAVs are categorized on the basis of class, sub-systems, payloads, applications, and geography. The global UAV market is valued at $6,762 million in 2014 and is expected to show a robust growth reaching $10,573 million in 2020, thereby registering a CAGR of 7.73%, up to 2020.The unmanned aerial vehicle market is driven by the reduced risks associated with the use of UAVs, increasing demand for the UAVs in the commercial and defense sectors, and better technological innovations that have created a demand for the UAVs in performing complex operations with reduction in the need for human intervention.The success of UAVs in combat operationshas increased their demand by the countries inthe North American, the Middle Eastern and Asia-Pacific region. Reduced defense budget in the North American and European countries in the recent years, is expected to hamper the growth of this market. The lack of skilled and trained pilots along with, strict airspace regulations is expected to constraint the UAV market. There is a huge scope for research and development of UAVs in increasing their operational efficiency and providing complete autonomy. Investments are being made by the emerging countries for adopting autonomous control systems for various applications.North America accounted for 69% for the Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Market in 2014. Large scale Unmanned Aerial Vehicle production and demand in the U.S. and Canada is expected to continue to influence the share of these countries in the UAV market,during the forecast period. Moreover, new R&D programs for applications of the UAV for combat operations, border security, maritime security, and detection of intruders or enemy force is projected to continue to drive the growth of market.The APAC region has the second highest share in the UAV market with China, India, Australia, and South Korea being the prominent markets. The training for Unmanned Aerial Vehicle’s operation and maintenance is projected to enhance the scope of this market globally,during the forecast period. The application of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles for border patrolling and homeland security is expected to boost this market, across the globe. The U.K., Russia, Germany, and France are expected to be the potential markets from the European region.

Despite near-term U.S. budget cutbacks, Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) continue as the most dynamic growth sector of the world aerospace industry this decade, report Teal analysts in their latest integrated market analysis.Teal Group's 2014 market study estimates that UAV spending will nearly double over the next decade from current worldwide UAV expenditures of $6.4 billion annually to $11.5 billion, totaling almost $91 billion in the next ten years."The UAV market continues to evolve and become an increasingly global market," said Philip Finnegan, Teal Group's director of corporate analysis and an author of the study.

Civil UAV Market"And our coverage of the civil UAV market continues to grow with each annual report, mirroring the gradual increase in the civil market itself," said Finnegan. "Our 2014 UAV study calculates the UAV market at 89% military, 11% civil cumulative for the decade, with the numbers shifting to 86% military and 14% civil by the end of the 10-year forecast.""The Teal Group study predicts that the US will account for 65% of total worldwide RDT&E spending on UAV technology over the next decade, and about 41% of the procurement," said Teal Group senior analyst Steve Zaloga, another author of the study. The larger, higher value systems procured by the United States help drive the relative strength of the US market over the decade.The 11th edition of the sector study, World Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Systems, Market Profile and Forecast 2014, examines the worldwide requirements for UAVs, including UAV payloads and companies, and provides ten-year forecasts by country, region, and classes of UAVs.

Teal Group analysts already cover the UAV market in their World Missiles and UAV Briefing, which examines the UAV market on a program-by-program basis. Sensor payloads are also treated in Teal's Military Electronics Briefing. The sector study examines the UAV market from a complementary perspective, namely national requirements, and includes both a comprehensive analysis of UAV system payloads and key UAV manufacturers.

UAV PayloadsThe 2014 study provides 10-year funding and production forecasts for a wide range of UAV payloads, including Electro-Optic/Infrared Sensors (EO/IR), Synthetic Aperture Radars (SARs), SIGINT and EW Systems, and C4I Systems, forecast to double in value from $2.8 billion in FY14 to $5.6 billion in FY23. However, for the first time, Teal Group forecasts near-term declines in some major electronics market segments – including the ubiquitous gimbaled EO/IR sensor turret.

Instead, some markets will see even greater increases as new programs develop radio frequency (RF) replacements for EO/IR. "Rapidly increasing capabilities for RF sensors are being funded by the U.S. government as potential conflicts shift from clear-skies Central Asia to the more restrictive geographies of Eastern Europe and the Pacific," according to Dr. David Rockwell, author of the electronics portion of the new study. "The SAR market will nearly triple as smaller all-weather sensors take over wide field-of-view ISR from EO/IR.""The overall UAV electronics market will continue to be the world's fastest-growing aerospace payload market, but not through continued growth of 'the usual suspects' from the past decade. Instead, new sensor programs for current and future air vehicles will result in more unexpected growth spurts and losses. For the 2014 study we have added a number of speculative new programs in the out-years. Wise companies will plan today for growth tomorrow," according to Dr. Rockwell.

UAV CompaniesThe study also includes a UAV Manufacturers Market Overview that reflects the worldwide UAV market "again continuing as one of the prime areas of growth for defense and aerospace companies," said Finnegan. The new studyreflects the rapid growth of interest in the UAV business by covering more than 40 U.S., European, South African and Israeli companies, and reveals the fundamental reshaping of the industrial environment as UAV technology proliferates worldwide.​Google, Facebook and AmazonAs prime contractors and small companies compete in the dynamic UAV market, they are adopting widely different strategies. "Our overview tracks the widely varying approaches being taken by these key companies, ranging fromoutright acquisitions to teaming arrangements and internal development of new UAV systems," said Finnegan."It shows how companies worldwide are responding to the growth of the UAV market and the extent to which a new breed of technology companies such as Google, Facebook and Amazon are working to position themselves in the UAVmarket."