Ohio the fun of predicting Summer time convection. Lack of activity along warm front Saturday evening has allowed warm front to lift farther northeast than expected. With modest low level jet forming overnight...have already seen elevated storms form north of Interstate 94 with large hail. This activity likely to continue into day break with modest mixed layer cape and enough convergence for regeneration of storms.

This warm front placement does have implications on weather later today as stronger short wave trough drops out of Canadian prairies into western Great Lakes by tonight. Temperatures and dew points will be higher than previously expected leading to higher mixed layer cape values /2500-3500 j/kg/ as associated cold front approaches. Combine this with modest shear and stronger middle level winds...organized convective complexes possible across mainly Wisconsin this afternoon.

Some question on where main development will occur but weak performing mesoscale models tend to hint at storms forming east of area and could back build to the west into higher cape region. This leads to very conditional threat for our Wisconsin counties...but Worth watching closely through the day.

Upstream wave should keep convection very progressive...moving threat area quickly southeast of the area this evening so rain threats drop off quickly to match.

Shift of upper low from Hudson Bay into Ontario will push boundary south of the area and make for a few quiet days to start the week in northwest flow. This will also make for cooler temperatures...below normal for a few days. Dropped favored cold bogs a few categories at night as well.

Medium range models remain relatively inconsistent from run to run from middle week on. Hints that amplification in flow to the west could break down as series of short waves move across the northern tier of states. With forecast confidence low...small rain threats remain littered in outer forecast periods. Strongest potential wave appears to be Wednesday night into Thursday which could generate a complex of storms with instability residing just southwest of the area.

Cold front will sweep southeast across the area this afternoon...sparking rain showers/ts mostly along its eastern flanks. Mesoscale models favoring bringing it through dry for krst...and could miss klse also. A lot of uncertainty as ongoing convection is elevated Post the front...while more widespread rain showers/ts are expect to fire along/ahead of the front later this afternoon. The front will likely be south of the taf sites by that time...limiting the threat. Will keep tafs dry for the time being...but will monitor radar trends closely and make updates as needed.

Gusty/strong winds ahead and Post the front...settling down a bit this evening.