George Osborne is clearly worried, but his reference to ‘a return to chaos’ has triggered only further economic alarm. Photograph: Suzanne Plunkett/Reuters

George Osborne is clearly worried. Going into a pre-election war-gaming huddle with his advisers, the economic numbers that once sang a happy tune and are so crucial to victory, now sound a little discordant.

It seems churlish to strain for the bum notes in the latest GDP figures. All parts of the economy are growing, with the exception of agriculture. And growing more strongly than they are in any of the major European economies.

But it is the chancellor’s words that set off the alarm bells. He said: “If we want to avoid a return to the chaos and instability of the past, then we need to carry on working through our economic plan that is delivering stability and security.”

Adopting the word “chaos” is at once interesting and alarming. He seems to be saying that any other path than the one he has chosen will bring with it a swirling storm of instability.

Billing himself as Lord Protector, Osborne risks overstating his case, especially when the GDP numbers are so strong. Growth is moderating, but most surveys report that businesses remain confident about the recovery and continue to hire more staff. As a result, unemployment continues to fall.

So what can he be worried about? There is the three months of restrained housing market activity. If it’s true, and we don’t fully understand the link, that much of the recovery is connected to the increase in property buying, then any slowdown is a cause for concern. Except the chancellor wanted the housing market to cool. And his policies are largely the reason banks are refusing to dole out loans after he gave regulators instructions in April to clampdown on risky mortgage lending.

A slowdown in housebuilding was also a logical knock-on effect, given that a majority of homes are constructed by a private building sector keen to maintain its extraordinary profit levels.

We know he is worried about the slowdown in exports, which didn’t take off four years ago, as he had expected. The eurozone’s impending recession is largely to blame, but a lack of support to exporters, particularly multimillion-pound credit insurance, has also proved a barrier.

However, the crucial issue is the government’s finances, which have worsened this year despite the strong recovery. For a man with the electoral cycle stamped on his DNA, it is tragic that businesses and workers are not paying much extra tax.

A signal of the brewing panic came a few days ago when the Treasury was keen to promote official figures it claimed gave the lie to the women’s employment issue. The data counters the claim that most women are returning to the jobs market only to take low paid jobs. Officials argued that most were finding professional and managerial roles. Tellingly, there is no explanation to say why this had failed to translate into higher taxes.

A more independent assessment came last week, courtesy of the Office for Budget Responsibility, which highlighted how businesses were still carrying debts from the financial crash and workers, in the main, were accepting low-paying self-employment as a part-time or low-skilled roles in the corporate sector.

With a £10,000 personal allowance in place from this year, millions of workers pay no tax or very little and a large proportion of new joiners appear to do much the same. A bumper tax payment by the self-employed expected to arrive before the January self-assessment deadline now looks like a mirage.

Without a rise in tax receipts, Osborne’s hopes of pre-election giveaways must wither. Without paid-for giveaways the Tories may lose. This is why a vision of growth married to higher wages and a full exchequer must be massaged down. And why the threat of chaos must hang over us should we think there is a better way to manage the economy.