“Croydon Central seat promises to be one of the most open and unpredictable in the country,” says Croydon Today, in response to the decision of the sitting MP to contest the constituency again. Andrew Pelling, also a former London Assembly member, snook home as a Tory in 2005 but in 2007 had the parliamentary whip withdrawn following his arrest after his wife alleged assault. No charges were ever brought, but at the end of that year Pelling declared that he would not seek re-election.

Well, now that he’s confirmed persistent rumours that he would change his mind and run as an independent, all previous electoral arithmetic can be binned.