Statewide, 47 percent of likely voters currently support Dayton,
while 42 percent back Grams, five percent are for Reform Party candidate
James Gibson, and six percent remain undecided.Dayton held a similar 46-41
percent lead in September.

The
gender gap remains the race, with women backing Dayton by a 54 percent to
37 percent margin and men supporting Grams 46 percent to 39 percent.

Poll Date

Grams

Dayton

Gibson

Undecided

October 2000

42%

47%

5%

6%

September 2000

41%

46%

4%

9%

August 2000

41%

44%

4%

11%

July 2000

46%

29%

5%

20%

The race breaks predictably along
ideological lines, with Dayton winning 84-8 percent among self-described
liberals and Grams ahead 77-14 percent among conservatives. Dayton leads 52-35 percent among
the large segment of the electorate that considers themselves
moderates.

The
incumbent Republican continues to have higher unfavorable name recognition
(37-32 percent).

It is worth
noting, however, that Dayton's negative rating has increased nine points
over the past month.

Name Recognition

Rod Grams

Recognize Favorable

Recognize Unfavorable

Recognize Neutral

Don't Recognize

February '94

26%

12%

27%

35%

May '94

34%

9%

28%

29%

June '94

37%

14%

30%

19%

August '94

33%

20%

30%

17%

September '94

33%

20%

32%

15%

November '94

35%

29%

31%

5%

July '99

38%

33%

26%

3%

July 2000

39%

28%

26%

7%

August 2000

35%

31%

28%

6%

September 2000

37%

36%

25%

2%

October 2000

39%

37%

22%

2%

Name Recognition

Mark
Dayton

Recognize Favorable

Recognize Unfavorable

Recognize Neutral

Don't Recognize

July 2000

21%

23%

39%

17%

August 2000

36%

21%

31%

12%

September 2000

40%

23%

34%

3%

October 2000

42%

32%

24%

2%

Although
Dayton's lead is just five points, "undecided" voters usually break more strongly in favor of challengers than incumbents. That is not a certainty, but it would not be too surprising if Dayton wins by a wider margin. Grams' base support has consistently registered in the low 40s, and it may not move much higher on election day.

Statewide Name Recognition

Candidate

Recognize Favorable

Recognize Unfavorable

Recognize Neutral

Don't Recognize

Mark Dayton

42%

32%

24%

2%

Rod Grams

39%

37%

22%

2%

Results

QUESTION: If the 2000 election for Minnesota's U.S. Senate seat were held today, would you vote for Mark Dayton, the Democrat; Rod Grams, the Republican; James Gibson, the Independence Party candidate; or David Swan, the Constitution Party candidate?

Region

Dayton

Grams

Gibson

Undecided

Statewide

47%

42%

5%

6%

Minneapolis/St. Paul

48%

39%

6%

6%

Rochester/Southeast

42%

44%

3%

11%

Southwest Minnesota

41%

48%

5%

6%

Northwest Minnesota

38%

54%

3%

5%

Duluth/Northeast

54%

34%

7%

6%

By
Gender

Gender

Dayton

Grams

Gibson

Undecided

Men

39%

46%

7%

7%

Women

54%

37%

4%

5%

Note: Swan received less than one percent.

By
Ideology

Gender

Dayton

Grams

Gibson

Undecided

Liberal

84%

8%

3%

5%

Moderate

52%

35%

6%

7%

Conservative

14%

77%

5%

4%

Note: Swan received less than one percent.

QUESTION: Which of the following would you say is most influencing your vote in the Senate race: (ORDER ROTATED)

Candidate

Response

The overall political philosophy of that
candidate

41%

That candidate's position on Medicare and
Social Security

13%

The background and experience of that
candidate.

12%

The personal character of that
candidate.

11%

That candidate's position on taxes and
government spending.

8%

That candidate's position on education

8%

Other

4%

QUESTION: Do the political advertisements in the U.S. Senate race that criticize the opposing candidate help you evaluate the positions of the candidates?

Option

Response

Yes

14%

No

83%

Don't Know/Not sure

3%

POLL METHODOLOGY

The Mason-Dixon
Minnesota Poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc.
of Washington, D.C. from October 26 through October 27, 2000. A total of
625 registered Minnesota voters were interviewed statewide by telephone.
All stated they were likely to vote in the November general election.

Those interviewed
were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone
numbers.A cross-section of exchanges were utilized in order to ensure an
accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect
voter turn-out county.

The
margin for error, according to standards customarily used by
statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4 percentage points. This means that there is a 95
percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if
the entire population were sampled.The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a regional
or gender grouping.

Sample Figures:
Men 310 (50%)
Women 315 (50%)

Region

Interviews

Minneapolis/St. Paul

350 interviews

Rochester/Southeast

71 interviews

Southwest Minnesota

64 interviews

Northwest Minnesota

68 interviews

Duluth/Northeast

72 interviews

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