Monday, March 20, 2017

The Curious Case of the Skyrocketing Mosin Nagant Prices

Relatively speaking, I haven’t been collecting and shooting
firearms for that long, only around 9 or 10 years as of today. My first firearm,
a Christmas gift from a former employer, was a Bushmaster ORC AR15 (nice gift
eh?). I soon followed that up with my first handgun, a Smith and Wesson M and P
9mm, these are typical firearms for a newcomer to the wonderful world of gun
ownership. But, it didn’t take long for me to discover the joys of military
surplus firearms, especially given the fact that I am a self-confessed military
history buff.

Mosin Nagant 91/30 1933 Tula Hex Receiver

My first mil-surp was a Mauser 24/47 that I bought off a guy
in one of my college classes. He happened to over hear me talking about guns
with someone else in our class and mentioned he had a rifle (Yugoslavian 24/47
Mauser in 8mm) he was trying to sell. It needed a bit of cleaning up and the
metal had some rust, so I offered him 50 dollars (a number which was suggested
by a local gun smith who inspected the rifle for me before I bought it) and the
seller surprisingly agreed, as this was well below the average price for that rifle at the time. Around that same time, I was introduced to the
venerable and legendary Mosin Nagant. The year was 2010 and a typical Mosin Nagant 91/30 was
selling for between $99 and $129 dollars. It was a good time to be a buyer. But
then again, we always hear the clichés about the “good ole days” don’t we?

For some reason, which I still fail to comprehend, the Mosin
Nagant is frequently described as an “ugly gun” or, “not much of a looker”. The
other phrase I have heard often times goes something like this, “she ain’t much
to look at, but she sure shoots straight!” I’m left scratching my head because
the Mosin Nagant is actually quite a beautiful rifle. The stocks are often a
dark, rich shade of reddish/maroon and the long, slender barrel is
unmistakable.

I’m still beside myself when I think that there was a time
when these rifles were not in high demand, or considered undesirable. What I’m
saying is that they are absolutely fantastic, and I am not alone judging by the
rising prices.

Back to 2010, I knew that I was getting a good bargain at
$99-$129 so I bought myself a few of them those first couple years of my
collection. Perhaps 3-4 in all, including my first M44, which unfortunately due
to my bad memory (which is getting worse with each passing year) I don’t
remember what I paid for, so I can’t give you an exact number, but I think it
was around $200-$250.

With that in mind, let’s look at some of the prices I’ve
been following in the past couple months;

- At a gun show in Kansas, a Facebook user posted a photo
showing a 1943 Izhevsk 91/30 (1943 Izhevsk Mosin Nagant 91/30’s are the most
common and will usually be the lowest priced) priced from $325 to $350.

A pair of Mosin Nagants for sale at a recent gun show. (Photo courtesy of Derrick Wilkins)

- A 91/30 for $229 (date unknown but probably a 1943 Izhevsk) at
a Massachusetts retailer.

A typical Mosin Nagant is now selling for no less than $100
more than what it was selling for just 7 years ago. Close to a 100% increase,
some times more in some cases. That is an excellent return on any investment
over the same time frame. Prices like that even have left me to consider
selling some of my collection. But how much higher will prices go?

It looks like prices will continue to rise for now. My
prediction is that prices will stabilize for the next 6 months but if the ban
on Russian imports doesn’t bring in a massive influx of military surplus, then
prices will just keep going up steadily (the Obama administration imposed a ban
on Russian imports as reaction to the Russian invasion in the Crimea and their
meddling in Ukraine. The new administration has yet to lift those sanctions).

I find it difficult to blame retailers. Businesses have an
obligation to maximize profits without losing customer loyalty. Naturally, they
will collectively be watching the market and their sales results to see what’s
the most money they can get for a particular product. Used guns sales are a lot
like used car sales.

Some of the people I surveyed mentioned inflation. OK,
that’s one possibility. But I calculated the inflation rate for a Mosin Nagant
91/30 that was priced at $129 in 2010. In
today’s dollars that would be the equivalent of $144. With most 91/30’s going
for $229 and up, inflation alone does not account for the entire increase in
price.

The vast consensus is that the ban on Russian imports,
combined with a decrease in inventory across the USA and the increase in
interest from new shooters and collectors makes for a perfect storm which
results in the massive price increases we’re seen recently.

As of today, you should expect to pay no less than $229 for
a 1943 Izhevsk 91/30 and anywhere from $289 to $325 for some of the more
desirable 91/30’s such as any Tula or Hex receiver. For an M44 you should
expect to pay $280-$300, an M38 is going to run you about the same. However,
the premium prices for any Mosin Nagant variant are currently going to the
91/59 and any Finnish model (Please note that this article refers strictly to
the most common Mosin Nagant’s which are Russian in origin. Other Mosin Nagants
from non-Russian factories generally command higher prices). Prices for those
are all over the place but unless you get one with blemishes, such as the
cracked stocks Fins that Classic Firearms is currently selling, you’ll end up
paying anywhere from $400 all the way up to the $600’s.

It’s a seller’s market, to say the least, however, new
owners of Mosin Nagants, even if they are paying more than double what some of
us paid for ours, are still getting an amazing piece of history for less than
$300 US Dollars. Do I wish prices were lower right now? Of course I do! Then
again, maybe part of me is just upset that I didn’t buy a couple of crates
worth (20 rifles to a crate) back in 2010?

8 comments:

Imagine how those of us who were buying in the 90's feel. M-44's/M38's for $89 and "low-grade" 91/30's as low as 3 for $99. I think there's a bit of a bubble as far as Mosins are concerned. They gained a reputation as a cheap knockabout rifle and have retained it for some reason, despite the fact that they now sell for twice as much in some cases as a modern commercial bolt action that is far more accurate and doesn't have to have the bolt hammered open with a 2x4 on occasion.

A lot of the soviet era warehouses that the surplus Mosin Nagants were coming from are in eastern Ukraine. Right in the middle of Seperatist territory. Those warehouses were thouroughly looted by seperatist militias.

I believe a discerning buyer can't go wrong buying these rifles. I continue to find them occationally at half current market pricing and less . It's like any other investment. The more you know and understand your sector, the easier it is to recognize value and snap it up when it appears. Keep your eyes wide open.