Correction: an earlier version of this article said Kim Jong Un only appeared four times in March and April. It should have read April and May.

Kim Jong Un had as of Friday been absent from North Korean state media for three weeks, analysis by NK News’s sister site NK Pro showed, the North Korean leader’s second 21-day absence in a row amid ongoing rumors about his health.

Consecutive extended absences by a DPRK leader are rare, having taken place twice since the year 2000: once in the wake of the 9/11 attacks and once between two high-level summits with China and South Korea in 2018.

Kim Jong Un’s two latest absences also come amid a significantly quieter-than-usual period for the North Korean leader, the NK Pro Leadership Tracker revealed.

Kim appeared a total of only four times in April and May, significantly down from the 31 appearances he made on average in the same two months between 2012-2019.

As a result, though Kim’s appearance at a May 1-dated ribbon-cutting ceremony ended rumors that he had died or suffered a major health crisis in April, the low frequency of recent appearances could indicate all is not well.

“I think that we should be concerned, something strange is going on,” John Everard, the UK’s former Ambassador to North Korea, said, noting that other high-level officials have also remained out of the public eye.

“It is not just that Kim Jong Un has disappeared but that his sister, Choe Ryong Hae and Kim Yong Chol have too… [which] suggests that the reasons for this group absence are not medical, although he may have undergone surgery during it.”

As a result, Everard speculated there might be a “power shift of some kind at the top” or a “retreat [for] working out a way forward.”

Christopher Green, a contributing analyst with NK Pro, agreed that “these statistics demonstrate that it isn’t business as usual.”

“Still recovering from that medical procedure? The probability of this is high in my view,” he said. “Some other seemingly credible threat to his health? Maybe.”

However, other observers said Kim’s low-level of recent appearances may be explained by other factors.

“It seems more likely to me his absences are a response to the risk of COVID-19,” said Martin Weiser, a consultant researcher specializing in DPRK media analysis. “Kim Jong Un will only appear in public more frequently again once the virus is thought to be under control.”

Cheong Seong-chang, a North Korea leadership specialist at the Sejong Institute, agreed that “the most likely reason for the disappearance is the impact of COVID-19.”

“It would be burdensome for Kim Jong Un to go out for on-site guidance in areas such as people’s livelihood, trying to minimize public contact,” he said.

And unlike in April when Kim missed several key events and the SPA was delayed by two days, the last three weeks have seen “no events (he) absolutely had to attend,” Cheong added.

“It is not concerning or strange at all that he is not showing up at the moment.”

Andrei Lankov, a director at NK News’s parent company the Korea Risk Group, said that even if Kim were ill, he sees no signs of instability in the DPRK.

“I do not see any indication that the North Korean elite, the people who matter, are excessively tense,” he said.

“I am inclined to believe that Kim Jong Un, even if he is sick and recovering from surgery or some other medical emergency, has a good prognosis, and will be back to work in few weeks or few months.”

Despite COVID-19 concerns, Kim Jong Un appeared several times since March with mask-less officials | Picture: Rodong Sinmun

But while the DPRK claims to have suffered zero novel coronavirus infections and initially imposed major border and citizen movement restrictions, it has since relaxed many of its virus prevention policies.

As a result, former ambassador Everard said he believed that COVID-19 was an unlikely explanation for Kim’s recent absences.

“He was present and active during the worst of the pandemic, but disappeared as it ebbed and is still absent as the DPRK reopens its ports.

Furthermore, Kim “would hardly be likely to allow officials to sit within a meter of his face without masks, as he did at Sunchon, if he were afraid of COVID.”

For its part, South Korea’s government noted the three-week absence on Friday, but said it was not unusual because Kim also disappeared for 21 days in January this year.

“I ask for discretion that it is not appropriate that I publicly mention where chairman Kim Jong Un is staying at the moment,” said a Ministry of Unification spokesperson.

Jeongmin Kim contributed reporting

Edited by Oliver Hotham

Correction: an earlier version of this article said Kim Jong Un only appeared four times in March and April. It should have read April and May.

Kim Jong Un had as of Friday been absent from North Korean state media for three weeks, analysis by NK News's sister site NK Pro showed, the North Korean leader's second 21-day absence in a row amid ongoing rumors about his health.