2010 Tossups: A Rundown of the Most-Competitive Senate Races

BySusan Davis

By Susan Davis

The retirement announcements of two senior Senate Democrats in the past 48 hours highlights the shifting 2010 political landscape and raises serious questions about whether Democrats will be able to keep their filibuster-proof, 60-vote supermajority. With 11 months to go before the November elections, here’s a quick rundown of the most-competitive Senate races.

DEMOCRATIC-HELD SEATS:

North Dakota: Sen. Byron Dorgan’s surprise Tuesday retirement announcement immediately turned this contest from a sleeper into a top-tier race that Republicans will be favored to win if popular GOP Gov. John Hoeven gets in the race, as he is widely expected to do. Democrats lost their most obvious contender, Rep. Earl Pomeroy, who said he will not seek the seat.

Nevada: There hasn’t been a ton of national attention on Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid‘s re-election race, but it’s a contest that can’t be ignored. By the looks of his low poll numbers and favorability, Reid should probably be way more vulnerable than he currently is. But he’s benefited in part from a second-tier line-up of Republican challengers and a political acumen that had him fund-raising and on the offensive from the outset of the election cycle. With lots of interest in knocking out the Democratic leader, a lot of outside money is expected to flow into this race.

Arkansas: If there is one fact to keep in mind about the climate in the state where Sen. Blanche Lincoln is seeking re-election it’s this: Arkansas is the only state that voted more Republican last year’s presidential race than in 2004. In a heavily Democratic year, John McCain won Arkansas with a margin that was five percentage points wider than President George W. Bush’s margin four years earlier.

Colorado:Michael Bennet was plucked from political obscurity last year when he was tapped to fill Sen. Ken Salazar’s seat. It’s a swing state in a tough political year for Democrats, and Bennet faces a primary challenge to boot from former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff.

Delaware: Paging Beau Biden. The vice president’s son is the man who will likely determine if Democrats will hold this seat, now held by seat-filler Ted Kaufman. Biden hasn’t yet said if he’ll get in, but former governor and GOP Rep. Mike Castle is in—and favored to win at this point.

Illinois: Despite being the president’s home state and Democratic-friendly territory, Republicans think they have a shot to make a play for the seat being vacated by scandal-tainted Sen. Roland Burris. Moderate GOP Rep. Mark Kirk is the odds-on favorite to win his party’s nomination, while Alexi Giannoulias is the favored Democrat.

Pennsylvania: Sen. Arlen Specter switched parties because he couldn’t win re-election as a Republican. Now, it’s not entirely certain he can win as a Democrat, either. Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak is mounting an increasingly serious primary challenge, and building support among the liberal base of the party. Even if Specter survives the primary, he faces a potentially competitive race from conservative Pat Toomey. Specter would still be the odds-on favorite to win, but if it’s a watershed year for the GOP, a Toomey victory is not out of the realm of possibility.

REPUBLICAN-HELD SEATS:

Kentucky: Sen. Jim Bunning’s decision to retire improved the Republican Party’s chances of holding this seat. This race has received a fair bit of attention thanks to the candidacy of Rand Paul, son of 2008 presidential candidate Rep. Ron Paul of Texas. The younger Paul has surprised political observers in both parties with his early and impressive fund-raising numbers. The GOP primary has the potential to get ugly as Paul seeks to muscle aside party favorite Trey Grayson, and a bruising party primary could bolster the Democrats’ chances for victory. Several candidates are seeking the nomination, including 2004 candidate Dan Mongiardo and Attorney General Jack Conway.

Missouri: Sen. Kit Bond is retiring and this open seat race is competitive because, well, Missouri is competitive. The race is shaping up to be a match-up between GOP Rep. Roy Blunt and Democrat Robin Carnahan of Carnahan-family fame.

New Hampshire: Sen. Judd Gregg’s retirement has left another open seat race with no clear favorite in a politically astute but unpredictable state. Democratic Rep. Paul Hodes is seeking the Democratic nomination, while no fewer than five Republicans are running in the primary, including former Attorney General Kelly Ayotte, who is favored by party leaders.

Ohio: Sen. George Voinovich’s retirement in another swing state means the Ohio battle will be long, costly, and unpredictable. Former Rep. Rob Portman is seeking, and favored for, the GOP nomination, but he also worked for the Bush administration and if the election hinges on the economy, that may not play to his favor. Attorney General Lee Fisher and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunne are vying for the Democratic nod. The Cincinnati Enquirer summed up the state’s political climate this way: “If Ohio politics is ever to have its own version of the ‘Thrilla in Manila,’ the brutal, 14-round bout between Muhammad Ali and Joe Frazier in 1975, the 2010 election is likely to be it.”

Florida: So much of the focus in this race has been on the Republican primary between Gov. Charlie Crist and former state House Speaker Marco Rubio that it’s important to remember that either candidate still has to win a general election. Crist—back when Crist was seen as inevitable—was regularly leading likely Democratic nominee Rep. Kendrick Meek in the polls. But the evolving nature of the GOP primary, and what it says about the party and state, means that the Florida race is shaping up to be one of the more interesting and entertaining contests of the midterms.

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