In an interview with Brazil’s TotalRace newspaper Franz Tost said Antonio Felix da Costa is a likely candidate to replace Daniel Ricciardo should he get the call from Red Bull. “Antonio Felix da Costa is one of the candidates, but let’s wait for Red Bull’s decision. If they take Daniel, then we will assess who will be the choice for our second cockpit“.

This is probably stating the obvious (again) as far as replacement drivers in the Red Bull Young Driver Program goes. Da Costa is probably the most experienced young driver they have and currently racing in WSR 3.5, one of the stepping stones to Formula 1.

On the 29th July, just after the Hungarian GP TJ13 reported “there will be a driver announcement in Monza that will resonate throughout F1 with the equivalent force as would an earth tremor which registers as a 9.0 on the Richter scale“.

TJ remarked it is highly unlikely that such a driver announcement will be kept quiet until Spa and even more unlikely until Monza. Clear signs of seismic activity has been increasing it appears a decision has been taken…

The Iceman cometh again! Sources at Ferrari close to TJ13 has indicated a deal is done. Kimi Raikkonen has signed a 3 year contract with Ferrari and will return to the scarlet cars in 2014. It seems Raikkonen used the Red Bull conversations to barter a better deal with Ferrari.

Ferrari has yet to announce who Raikkonen will replace and although it is anticipated that Massa will be shown the door, they could hold off the announcement to keep Alonso on a leash and incentivise Massa.

It is also rumoured that Alonso is seriously considering buying his contract out and that Red Bull team owner Dietrich Mateschitz is keen to sign Alonso for 2014, despite the Spaniard’s contract.

Should this happen [Alonso leaving Ferrari] it will well and truly kick the driver market into turmoil. What will Ferrari do, replace him with a proven driver or go for a rookie/less experienced driver alongside Raikkonen? And where will Alonso go?

Will Red Bull have the grit (could not help myself) to put Alonso and Vettel in the same cars or will we see Alonso head back to Lotus (Renault) or, could it be that Alonso is heading to McLaren on a one year deal to replace Button in 2015?

It’s starts to make sense why Alonso’s manager went to RBR, he knew Ferrari were making a move for Kimi.
Interesting, with James Allison confirmed at Ferrari, Kimi to follow him, and I’m guessing his friend Vettel for 2015… I hypothesised weeks ago that “Mclaren Honda ” with FA behind the wheel could happen. Depends how vindictive Ron is

Could we see Ferrari actually cleaning the house? Why not show Alonso AND Massa where the builders have left the hole in the wall and go for Kimi AND Vettel (buying the latter out with the money they got from ALO)? That would open the door for Alonso to go lemonade without the danger of a year-long (lame pun alert!) bull-fight.

Bunsen risks losing his seat, too with his string of lackluster drives this year. So, let’s spin the carousell. Di Resta to McLaren, and That English kid in for him at FI (no, I’m not talking about Chilton, some other name starting with C, which I forgot)
Hülkenberg takes Kimi’s seat at Lotus and Massa back to Sauber. Frijns in at Sauber, too. It’s back to school for Esteban.

The really interesting consequence now is that unless Alonso goes back to Lotus (again – which I deem unlikely because he’s expensive), there *will* be a top team with two “lead drivers” in 2014 – either Ferrari or Red Bull.

When Kimi said in the pre-race interview about him making a move(for 2014) which may seem stupid for others , he might have meant Ferrari and not Lotus..Because Lotus now are more stronger than Ferrari are…
At the time Alonso is publicly criticising Ferrari for lack of development and thinking of a move to other teams , Kimi’s rumoured move to Ferrari seems stupid to many people..

But Kimi might have more things than his mind..With new regulations favouring Engine manufacturers and more engine-related rules than aerodynamics , and Allison at Ferrari now who is highly regarded in the paddock , It may seem stupid now , but Kimi might have pulled a major trump card by moving to Ferrari..

Assuming the deal between Raikkönen and Ferrari has been inked, this pretty much means Alonso will pack his bags as it’s no secret he wants supremacy within his team, and Raikkönen will obviously challenge him for speed any time of the day.

I can’t see Alonso going to Lotus, given their financial troubles, so only Red Bull are left for him, if he wants a place in a competitive team. BUT, Red Bull have Vettel still. Would they just let him go ? I doubt Ferrari would want two top drivers in their team, it just doesn’t fit with their modus operandi as a team.

I think Ricciardo going to Red Bull is pretty much sealed, though I don’t think he’s the driver they need as I feel Vergne is more consistent to bring points home, something Red Bull should value given they like getting the WCC.

Good thing Hamilton made his move to Mercedes early, they’re probably the team that should enjoy some stability in this period of turmoil.

It will be interesting indeed to follow the money and see the shape of the sponsorship landscape after the dust settles. And there are many more aftershocks to come. I hear that a crack team of emergency investigators are being helicoptered in as we speak, although I think we’re all going to be sifting through the debris for a long time to come. Forza F1!

From everything I’ve read recently which kind of backed up my own thoughts at the time, you don’t try to bluff LdM, he learnt under the master Enzo, and continued to this day.
Schumi and Todt were both put in their places and Alonso too it seems.
I wonder how much Robertson got for kimi, but following enzo’s article yesterday it seems Robertson has bested Horner too, maybe he’ll take over from Bernie??

Also, I was wondering if there’s more to the story than just Kimi, with Santander in massive debt, wroom cancelled by Marlboro, could there be a new title sponsor. Article other day said LdM wanted new sponsor 5 years ago but Todt had re signed with Marlboro against padrino’s wishes?

Maybe at Monza we get new sponsor, Brawn returning and Schumi as a back up to Kimi for a year in preparation for Vettel? Or maybe, Vettel has a 2014 contract that could only be scuppered if Alonso won the WDC… Stranger things..

Excellent, It’ll be fun to watch this shake out, either way this will lead to either Alonso, Vettel, or both out of their confort zone: good news, and also creates some good mid level team and potential high level seats for the other guys.

My hope: Ferrari or someone take a chance on Hulkenberg, or at the very least the Lotus.

With all these “musical chairs”, where does that leave Lotus? They have a fast car and are now left with a reasonably inexperienced driver, but no money to buy a top driver. Maybe Massa will be going there, if they can find the finance. He wont be as expensive as Alonso. Perhaps, as he wont be a designated number 2 driver, he will show he still has talent.

I think Hülkenberg would be a better bet than Massa to replace Kimi. Massa shows glimpses of his former self from time to time, but in reality he’s never been the same since Germany ’10.
With Hulk, Sutil, Kobayashi, Buemi, Glock, Valsecchi and others potentially available, I can’t see anyone except for a midfield team (Sauber?) taking on Massa.

“Ferrari has yet to announce who Raikkonen will replace and although it is anticipated that Massa will be shown the door, they could hold off the announcement to keep Alonso on a leash and incentivise Massa.”

I don’t believe the Raikkonen signing, and certainly don’t believe that Ferrari have told Alonso and Massa that he has signed and effectively turned the next 2 or 3 races into a shoot-out between them.

But you always come back, don’t you Cav.
I personally hate to see you go, but after retirement announcement nr. 5 or 6 or 7 and the same number of comebacks, i don’t take them so serious anymore.
So have a great holliday Cav, see you in a couple of weeks.

First Alonso. He has a guaranteed contract valued at around $35M a year. While there are undoubtedly performance clauses in his contract it would be pretty hard for either Ferrari or Alonso to claim non-performance when he has in three full seasons finished 2nd twice and fourth once and currently stands third. If Ferrari can buy him out it will cost them anywhere from a third to all of his contract value. So Ferrari could have to pay him somewhere from $30M – $100M to get out of the contract. And I don’t believe for a moment that Alonso would buy out his contract to go to Red Bull.

Second. Santander’s sponsorship of Ferrari, which runs until 2017, is partially tied to Alonso being there. It’s valued at around $50M a year. If Alonso isn’t there and Santander can reduce what they pay by half, that will cost Ferrari $100M.

Is Ferrari likely to spend / lose over $100M to get rid of Alonso? I rather doubt it.

Massa I believe is finished at Ferrari. There are enough good drivers around who could replace him. Bringing in Raikkonen gets Ferrari little.

The thing is cav, no one is suggesting that Ferrari is getting rid of Alonso, merely that Kimi has signed.
If that forces FA to leave, then Ferrari need buying out. If he decides to stay Ferrari win, they have replaced Massa for an ex champion. Hardly rocket science surely?
This is LdM flexing his muscle over his drivers and a debt ridden sponsor for the greater good of the team, I think the date is highly significant too

“they could hold off the announcement to keep Alonso on a leash and incentivise Massa.”

You don’t incentivize someone by telling him you’ve just fired them.

And I’ll use one of thejudge’s favourite terms – “it’s widely believed”
It’s widely believed that Alonso has a clause in his contract that allows him to disqualify another driver from getting the second Ferrari seat, and it was widely believed he used that clause when he nixxed Hamilton from joining the team last year. While all drivers publicly claim they don’t care who the second driver is, they all want to be number one and won’t give up that position.

“a debt ridden sponsor”

RBS found out with Williams that being debt ridden, actually bankrupt didn’t save them from having to live up to their contractual obligations. So as long as Santander is still doing business they’ll pay.

To the best of my knowledge, RBS never went into bankruptcy, they were bailed out with taxpayers money to the tune of billions.

Regarding the Alonso clause in a contract, I know he didn’t want Hamilton in the same team, but I don’t think he vetoed Vettel. Even if he did, would he have believed that Raikkonen would ever return to Ferrari?
LdM made it very clear last year that when he wins a WDC then he can ask who he wants as a team-mate.
It’s very easy to ridicule Luca, as has been proven on numerous websites and forums, but i think you forget his influence at your peril.

If Kimi used RBR as a bargaining tool in his negotiations with Ferrari how about these ‘rumours’ being circulated in purpose so that Kimi uses these as a bargaining tool for RBR and Lotus negotiations or Ferrari using these to mask other negotiations going on in the background (e.g. with Hulk, Di Resta or someone else)

Good point. It did cross my mind, especially after the F1 Business article in yesterday’s comments. That said, the TJ13 source is reliable so pretty confident we are heading for the 9 richter scale event.

If Alonso gets it right to get out of Ferrari then you may have to support McLaren on the grounds of them being McLaren. I have a hunch we could see Ron taking Alonso back and Button moving (possibly Ferrari?). Cannot see Perez moving and with Alonso there you dont need him to move.

Also, Carlos Slim’s company America Movil bid for KPN last week (EUR 7.2Bln). He also bought an Australian network earlier. The report I read said he does not have experience in Europe/other areas, mainly Latin America so McLaren may be part of his strategy and if the bid comes off KPN or something like that may be on McLaren next year.

I read that Kimi is trying to negotiate a sponsor deal with red bull for his motor cross team in Finland as well as a contract to drive and that is the reason it’s not been inked yet.

On the other hand I read a quote from him sayig that some people make think his decision for next year may seem stupid to some but will be right for him. This smells of staying with lotus next year despite the money woes there right now. I can’t see a Ferrari or Red Bull move being called stupid by anyone……..

Never put all your eggs in one basket Oliver. If Kimi were to driver for RB and trounce Vettel against the will of Marko… what then? Red Bull apparently already sponsors his motorcross team and he drives for Lotus so if he drives for Ferrari and RB sponsors his motocross team it will be BAU🙂

As I said earlier, I couldn’t think of ANY bigger story posted here, that turned out to be complete fantasy. When it comes to early news sniffing tj13 mops the floor with everything from autosport to AMuS, so unless YOUR sources are actually better than TJ’s I’d go with his predictions😉

Exactly Danilo, Allison confirmed at Ferrari on here 5/7/13.
Ferrari and rest of sites confirmed him on 29/7/13, I think it was.
They all basically use the same news source and repeat each others words.
F1 journalism reminds me of those so called men’s clubs, smoking cigars with a little brandy and congratulating each other.
Investigative journalism and thinking for yourself is a dying breed..

Yeah, but if I confirm all rumors then only mention the ones that pan out, what’s my percentage? Not saying anything against da Judge, but this is not straightforward. Tell you what, I’ll judge the Judge on this one alone. If this is true, he will have my undying loyalty. If not, then that’s okay too. This site is gaining on Saward, but Joe has been at this a long time and has many contacts, including a person in FOM, and some very good posters, whereas the Judge (should that be The Judge?) is still developing, but developing well. But, Judge, a word: don’t get carried away. Oops, sorry, that was four words.

I don’t want to criticize the fella but Joe Saward comes across as incredibly immature. Like a little kid who likes some people in F1 and doesn’t like others. The ones he likes can do no wrong for as the ones he dislikes are bad no matter what they do. Just read some of his replies to comments and you can gauge his personality pretty quickly. No wonder he is usually wrong as why would anyone bother with him.
Contrast Joe Saward to the Judge who is the opposite in every way.
I am not saying the Kimi story is right but think it is 50:50.

Of course, if anyone wants to wait another month or two for a official confirmation, I believe that is his or her inalieable right. Those of us who wish to fart around with the rumours and rumblings a little earlier can do so too.

We have congregated here because TheJudge13’s rumour and rumble windtunnel correlates well to what happens out on track.

Of course any rumours and rumblings are to be taken as such, not unassailable facts, but I think thats implicit, though I too doubted the Red Bull purple story, when that was revealed, but that was proven true too. So at least speculation here feels top me like, even if the fingers is not right on the pulse, we at least know there is a pulse and roughly where its at!