Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2013-14 season in May, 2014. (includes results from September 16-November 27, 2013):

Program

Status

Renew/ Cancel Index

Welcome To The Family*

canceled

0.52

Ironside*

canceled

0.61

Sean Saves The World

0.69

Parks & Recreation

0.73

Dracula (F)

0.76

The Michael J. Fox Show

0.78

Parenthood

0.81

Revolution

0.92

Grimm (F)

0.96

Law & Order: SVU

1.10

Chicago Fire

1.39

The Blacklist

(renewed 12/3)

1.94

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The ratings dive for The Michael J. Fox Show began some time ago, but the cancellation bear has finally gotten around to moving his prediction for the show down to certain to be canceled.

The ratings for Parks & Recreation are certainly low enough to indicate cancelation, but it has maintained its position as NBC's highest rated sitcom, low bar as that might be. The bear's not got a lot of historical precedent on whether that will make a difference or not.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index "frozen" at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

- certain to be cancelled by May, 2014

:cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2014

- toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2014

- more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2014

- certain to be renewed by May, 2014

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

I wouldn’t say they have no problems
The main character has Parkinson’s.

Show sucks though and should have never been picked up.

HV

Parks and Rec and the MJF show will not both be canceled, unless midseason shows do really well, which I doubt.

Jay

I don’t think NBC is going to give up on their comedy block, so next season it will look like this for thursdays:
Thursday
8 pm to 9 pm Comedy-Drama (Ala Chuck or My Name is Earl)
9 to 9:30 Parks and Rec/Community (each having a thirteen episode final season)
9:30 to 10 New Comedy

Every other network has created their own comedy night (Fox = Tuesdays. ABC = Wednesdays, CBS = Mondays and Thursdays). So NBC doesn’t have any real space. I imagine they will also have comedies from 8 to 9 on Wednesday.

Joseph

The Cancellation Bear will probably put the Michael J. Fox show out of it’s misery right before the Olympics.

*So basically I propose that NBC should move their comedy night to Wednesday and give ABC a little competition and then steal it from them. Of course, Parks & Rec and Community aren’t the strongest…so I put them against ABC’s strongest comedies on Wednesday. If About A Boy or Undateable succeed…then I would easily replace Parks & Rec and Community with them.

I know there is four hours of comedy, but realistically one of the fall blocks probably won’t be there in the spring, if they both are then they’d be successful anyways.

Thoughts?

C Dawg

It’s no surprise MJFox show is doing poorly. They ordered a full season of episodes without a pilot. The show is apparently about his follies of shakes and manneurisms.

The Millers have greater gags about working in the news too. MJF needs to go back to the future.

Michael

I think Revolution’s Numbers along with the “ill Depth” of NBC programs, that show SHOULD be moved to “Likely to be Renewed” fairly quickly…unless of course, a ratings decline occurrs (which as of now, I see as unlikely). So it’s time to move that show UP!

V

Revolution is getting 0.92 that should be 4 smiles.
Guess your waiting for the mid-season dramas to air.

skyfi

Dracula’s prediction is wrong. It is very steady and cheap. It will be renewed for short second season (and then for short 3rd season, etc.) like a limited series.

Isobel

I’d like both parks and community to have final seasons, and I’d cancel revolution but that’s just me

HeadlessHorseman

@skyfi
Given Dracula’s most recent ratings, the prediction is far from wrong. Dracula won’t be renewed unless it starts hitting 1.0-1.2 regularly. I don’t see that happening.

The Colonel

@rgxx “And does there have to be someone gay on every single television sitcom show?? Over-kill!” Seriously? Does there have to be a straight person in every sitcom? Idiot.

Gary

Watched two episodes of the Michael J Fox show, and to me, the cast surrounding Fox is the problem. They are just not in sync. Much prefer Robin Williams and the Crazy Ones. Much funnier. I would move Fox to another night instead of just outright cancelling it. Because of the powerful CBS lineup on Thursday, shows like Fox and Sean Saves the World really don’t stand much of a chance.