Chris, I have for months downplayed the notion that Sarah Palin will run for the 2012 Presidency. Now, I am not so sure.

With Mike Huckabee out, there is a vacuum for social conservatives on the RIGHT. Michele Bachmann is ramping up her campaign and she has the conservative cred but she cannot ignite a crowd like Sarah Palin.

Ultimately, it may be a Mitch Daniels Vs. Mitt Romney contest for the moderate candidate and Bachmann Vs. Palin for the conservative. This will be the semi-final contest and we may have to wait until late next spring to see who wins – maybe even the convention itself.

The presidential nominating process is a lot like the US Open tennis tournament. There is a final (the Republican v. Obama), a semifinal (the top conservative against the top moderate for the GOP nomination) and a quarter final (the conservatives against each other and the moderates competing together for the right to enter the semis).

Mitt Romney and Donald Trump are centrists. Businessmen, economic growth free market types who will vie with each other for the moderate nomination. In 2008, Romney fought and lost to Huckabee for the conservative nod to oppose McCain. But, because of his health care position, he now has to fight it out on the moderate court.

Mike Huckabee’s withdrawal opens the way on the right court for Gingrich, Bachmann, and Daniels. Had Mike run, he would have easily carried the day and faced Romney/Trump for the nomination. But, with Mike out, it’s an open field.

Bachmann has the most to gain from Huckabee’s withdrawal. Polling shows that the Tea Party types and the evangelicals are more or less the same people. With Mike out, Michele has a clear shot at their support (once they get over Herman Cain and Ron Paul, neither of whom can win — and Paul shouldn’t win). As the odd-woman-out dissenting from the Boehner deals with Obama, holding out for fiscal conservatism and tough Republican bargaining, she can pick up a lot of ground in a hurry.

Gingrich’s announcement puts the onus on him to dispel the negatives that dog his campaign. All agree that he would be the best opponent to Obama in a debate and that he is the brightest, best candidate would have. But many are scared off because of the negatives. He has six months to show them that they are wrong.

And then there is Mitch Daniels, potentially, the conservative establishment’s answer to Romney. Despite an absence of charisma, his extraordinary record as governor puts him right in the thick of the hunt for the nomination. He, along with his supporters (Scott Walker of Wisconsin, Chris Christie of New Jersey, and John Kasich of Ohio), have walked the walk not just talked the talk. His candidacy is a most attractive one.

And, if Sarah Palin decides to come in now, I would say the battle for the social conservatives will really heat up.

Newt Gingrich with his personal baggage should be used as a foil against Obama but he is unelectable – too old and too damaged.

Mitt Romney will have to compete in Iowa and will probably take a loss there even with Huckabee not in the race. Romney will be vulnerable in South Carolina too –then on to Florida.

Exit question: Will Mitch Daniels with Scott Walker, John Kasich and Chris Christie endorsing him be able to beat Michele Bachmann in Iowa?

Rumor has it Huckabee may announce that he is not running on his Fox News show tomorrow. That would be good news, at least for the time being, for the president. Huckabee gives him more trouble than the others in the South, in Appalachia, and up and down the Mississippi–including in states where the president remains strong (like North Carolina and Virginia) and states where he has declined since 2008 (like Pennsylvania, Iowa, and Missouri). The GOP almost certainly needs to return to Southern dominance and dip into either the West or Midwest–or both–to win the White House next year, and it remains to be seen whether another candidate can establish the rapport with these voters that Huckabee has.

Romney is not a much weaker alternative in these states, and he does put Obama more on the defensive in the Northeast and Southwest, particularly Nevada and New Hampshire, than does Huckabee. But Huckabee would certainly be leaving both a good shot at the nomination and a decent shot at Obama on the table by keeping his hat out of the ring.

Mike Huckabee is a stronger candidate than Mitt Romney and will provide an alternative to Mitch Daniels, should he falter. Moreover, should Huck not run, Sarah Palin may decide to go. Her polling against President Obama has been appalling.

All in all having the affable, Baptist minister in the race is better for the GOP, than Donald Trump, Newt Ginrich or Tim Pawlenty.

Comments Off on Update: President 2012: Mike Huckabee Better in or Better Out of the Race?; Huck Won’t Run

Rumor has it Huckabee may announce that he is not running on his Fox News show tomorrow. That would be good news, at least for the time being, for the president. Huckabee gives him more trouble than the others in the South, in Appalachia, and up and down the Mississippi–including in states where the president remains strong (like North Carolina and Virginia) and states where he has declined since 2008 (like Pennsylvania, Iowa, and Missouri). The GOP almost certainly needs to return to Southern dominance and dip into either the West or Midwest–or both–to win the White House next year, and it remains to be seen whether another candidate can establish the rapport with these voters that Huckabee has.

Romney is not a much weaker alternative in these states, and he does put Obama more on the defensive in the Northeast and Southwest, particularly Nevada and New Hampshire, than does Huckabee. But Huckabee would certainly be leaving both a good shot at the nomination and a decent shot at Obama on the table by keeping his hat out of the ring.

Mike Huckabee is a stronger candidate than Mitt Romney and will provide an alternative to Mitch Daniels, should he falter. Moreover, should Huck not run, Sarah Palin may decide to go. Her polling against President Obama has been appalling.

All in all having the affable, Baptist minister in the race is better for the GOP, than Donald Trump, Newt Ginrich or Tim Pawlenty.

Comments Off on President 2012: Mike Huckabee Better in or Better Out of the Race?