Everything you need to know about the violence in Mali and what Canada will be doing to keep the peace

There is disagreement among experts over what role Canada can — or should — play. The National Post explores what our troops are getting themselves into

A French soldier stands inside a military helicopter during a visit by French President Emmanuel Macron to the troops of Operation Barkhane, France's largest overseas military operation, in Gao, northern Mali, Friday, May 19, 2017.THE CANADIAN PRESS/AP-Christophe Petit Tesson, POOL

When Canadian helicopters and crew land in Mali later this summer, they will join a mission the United Nations has described as “highly volatile.” And there is disagreement among experts over what role Canada can — or should — play. The National Post’s Marie-Danielle Smith explores what our troops are getting themselves into.

What’s behind the violence in Mali?

Since this former French colony’s first democratic elections in the 1990s, insurgents in the north have staged several separatist rebellions. They were driven largely by the Tuareg people, an ethnic minority who said they felt excluded by the central government.

Following the post-Arab Spring downfall of Muammar Gaddafi, their cause was bolstered by soldiers fleeing Libya, and in 2012 rebels declared the north an independent Islamic state, imposing strict sharia law. At the same time, a military coup deposed the sitting government in the southern capital of Bamako.

Muammar Gadhafi.

Who’s keeping the “peace”?

In 2013, French forces intervened to drive back the insurgents in northern Mali. The United Nations also set up a peacekeeping force. In 2015, two of the groups that had been engaged in warfare — one a coalition largely composed of separatists, the second considered pro-government — signed a peace deal with the sitting government.

But according to recent UN documents, implementation of the agreement “remains slow and unpredictable.” And insecurity is growing in northern and central Mali, “where there is a strong and expanding presence of violent extremist armed groups that frequently carry out asymmetrical attacks.” Among them are the Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims, which operates in the north with the endorsement of Al-Qaeda.

Today, the UN has more than 15,000 personnel from 28 countries on the ground in Mali. Some 4,000 French troops — as well as the G5 Sahel, comprised of troops from Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger — are engaged in counter-insurgency in the region.

This file photo taken on June 1, 2016 shows United Nations (UN) peacekeepers soldiers standing in front of Chinese UN peacekeeping forces camp in Gao after Al-Qaeda’s North African affiliate AQIM claimed responsibility for May 31 attacks that killed Chinese peacekeeper and three civilians working for the UN’s Mali mission the US monitoring SITE said.STRSTR/AFP/Getty Images

How dangerous is Mali right now?

This is currently the UN’s deadliest peacekeeping mission. Since 2013, 169 peacekeepers have been killed, 56 of them since the beginning of 2017. Documents describe attacks against personnel, camps, convoys and airfields in the past year.

Joyce Sepenoo, an assistant country director for Mali with Care International, described the situation as “dire.” She said violence has spread from the north to the centre and humanitarian workers are now concerned about the pressure that may result from people fleeing southward. Security has deteriorated to such a degree that, according to Sepenoo, it’s “practically impossible to operate” in some areas that were accessible even last year. “Our workers have been shot at, our staff have sustained gunshot wounds,” she said.

For the average Malian, meanwhile, “you find the food that you need to eat today,” says Sepenoo, “and hope that no security incidents happen where you are, and you get to see the next day.”

All eyes are on upcoming elections in July, she added, the outcome of which could pave the way for either improvement or further decline.

Does “peacekeeping” make sense under current conditions?

With a $1-billion budget, the UN mission’s stated objectives are to promote political reconciliation, supervise an ongoing ceasefire, promote human rights and justice, and restore rule of law and state authority to central and northern Mali.

The question is less whether the UN mission can “keep the peace,” since instability still reigns, and more whether its presence has prevented further instability. “The working theory is it would be worse, that there would be more violence, that the actors that we dislike the most might be gaining the upper hand, or there might be more civilian victimization,” said Steve Saideman, the Paterson Chair in International Affairs at Carleton University. “The idea is that the UN is doing something. Not that it’s leading to a permanent peace or nirvana, but it’s doing something to limit the scope of violence.”

Although her organization has not independently assessed the mission’s work, Sepenoo said she believes “without the UN mission present the situation could have been worse.”

But Aisha Ahmad, a University of Toronto professor researching the financing of militias in northern Mali, cautioned that Islamist groups are not the only ones perpetrating violence and profiting from conflict in the country. Signatories to the peace agreement are also profiting through activities such as human trafficking, she said. “It is no secret to the leadership of the UN mission in Bamako that our allies are not interested in a peace agreement,” said Ahmad. “They would lose out from profitable opportunities if there was a sustainable peace.”

She added that using diplomatic coercion on those signatory groups would be more effective in the long run than the UN supporting the peace deal without condition. As it stands, the peacekeeping mission helps perpetuate stalemate, she said.

Canadian Peacekeepers prepare for a parade at Maple Leaf Camp in Port-au-Prince on Nov. 28,1997.DANIEL MOREL /
THE CANADIAN PRESS

What will Canada be doing in Mali, exactly?

The government’s plan is to send two Chinook transport helicopters, four armed Griffon escorts and about 250 military personnel to keep the small fleet running. The primary mission will be to evacuate injured peacekeepers. It is possible the government could send additional helicopters as well, a military official told The Canadian Press on Wednesday.

The Germans and the Dutch previously provided helicopters to the UN mission, said Saideman, so Canada is taking its turn and being a good ally to its friends in Europe. “This is something the UN needs, but it’s not going to be all that discernible, it’s not going to move the needle that much in terms of changing what’s going on on the ground.”

Can Canadian peacekeepers actually make a difference in Mali?

Ahmad suggested that Canada could try to influence how the mission is conducted. “I think that by having a seat at the table, there must be an expectation on our government to introduce a sensible conversation about what mission success can and should look like.”

But Saideman said Canada is, at best, at “the kids’ table” in Mali. “We don’t have skin in the game,” he said. “We don’t have leadership positions, we don’t have battle-groups on the ground doing a lot of heavy lifting.”

Minister of National Defence Minister Harjit Sajjan, Minister of Foreign Affairs Chrystia Freeland and Chief of Defence Staff Jonathan Vance leave after holding a press conference on Canada’s peacekeeping mission to Mali in the foyer of the House of Commons on Parliament Hill in Ottawa Monday, March 19, 2018.THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick

What else could Canada do?

Ahmad pointed to the potential for non-military work in the region, around issues such as climate change. “If you want to just use the sharp end of the stick in these parts of the world without looking at root causes, without looking at innovative climate change adaptation strategies for building sustainable agriculture and livelihoods in these regions, it’s designed for failure,” she said.

Canada is already one of the largest donors of international assistance to Mali. It helps fund a Justice, Truth and Reconciliation Commission that is listening to victims of human rights abuses and trying to engage in “transitional justice,” said Pascal Paradis, the co-founder of Lawyers Without Borders Canada, a non-profit organization that is working with the commission.

So will Canadians be in danger, or not?

Armed groups in Mali “have not been shooting down UN helicopters,” said Saideman, and he doesn’t think Canadians are likely to leave the helicopter base.

“We perfectly understand the fear,” said Paradis, “but we’ve been (in Mali) for years and Canada has been supporting dialogue, transitional justice, support for civil society participation, for change in the institutions, for a long time. So this is part of a holistic approach.”

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