This is a competent- even interesting - review of the election results of the region, concluding

Democrats were taking for granted their above-national-average support from non-college-educated outstate voters in their determination to build a new, "ascendant" majority of blacks, Hispanics, single women and millennials. They figured that [small town] Obama voters were locked into the Democratic Party and didn't need any special attention. Turns out they weren't and they did.

Barone concedes this possibility was anticipated:

Trump saw, or stumbled into taking advantage of, an opening spotted by only a few political analysts — blogger Steve Sailer way back in 2001, RealClearPolitics' Sean Trende in a 2013 article series and FiveThirtyEight's Harry Enten in analyzing Republican Joni Ernst's big Senate win in Iowa in 2014.

Notice the anomaly? Trende’s and Enten’s attribution includes their publishers. Sailer (who WAS FIRST) wrote his election articles for VDARE.com (which holds the copyright to them). But Barone cannot bring himself to acknowledge where they appeared.

Ignoring powerful arguments because they come from unfashionable sources can be fatal and it is exactly what has landed the Republican and Democratic Establishments in their current richly deserved mess.

…neocon doyenne Michael Barone simply ignores contrary argument in his new book. This confirms that political establishment, left and right, is firmly back in Denial Mode on race and immigration, and marks an ignominious personal retreat for Barone since the mid-1990s, when he actually had some valuable things to say.