Stuff

The monthly online ComRes poll for the Sunday Indy and Sunday Mirror is out tonight. It has topline figures, with changes from their last online poll a month ago, of CON 31%(-2), LAB 43%(+2), LDEM 10%(nc), UKIP 8%(-1). The twelve point lead is the largest ComRes have shown this Parliament in either their online or their phone polls.

The fieldwork was done between Wednesday and Friday, so most of it would have been finished before the results of Thursday’s election. It is too early to expect any impact from them in the polls. Normal caveats about the poll apply anyway: sure, it could be the sign of a further shift to Labour, but equally it could be normal variation within the margin of error.

195 Responses to “New ComRes and Opinium polls”

What intrigues me about the current polling stats., is what difference can people detect between the two main parties, how can they differentiate? It seems to me, that both Labour and Tory are centrist, a few minor operational touches and they would be one and the same. Both parties are headed by rich, Oxbridge type early career politicians, driven by personal financial aspiration, eyeing the main chance post career, to enter the global influence networks. A pattern is emerging, we are incubating future global, ‘celebrities’ who seek their fortunes, as did the Brits of old, exploiting the ignorance of the Colonials. As our country fights against itself, we send out emissaries carrying our virtuous message, a host of middle-class, pensioned off, civil servants, protected by gun-toting Special Branch officers, in chauffeured, bullet-proof limousines, to lecture the slavering natives, for a bounty fit for Princes. I don’t know about you lot, but I am proud of our political class. :-)

@ChrisLane1945
”Ed is making a speech appealing to the ‘right’ tomorrow on the EU.”

Left-right distinctions are a bit blurred nowadays when it comes to the EU. As reported in the FT:
Ed Miliband has promised Labour will adopt a “hard-headed” realism to its future approach to Europe, in a signal that he wants to move the party away from the strongly pro-European stance of Tony Blair’s last government.

If we must define this on a left-right spectrum, In terms of the internal politics of the Labour Party at least, I would suggest that such a shift would amount to a shift to the left(i.e. away from the Blairite right’s perspective).

The conspiracy about a hidden ruling class is absolutely true the lizard people bred human stock for government the only way they can be spotted is they all have to attend a leading university and never hold a job outside politic’s that is of any worth.
The Lizard people also bred people to take up roles in the media the entertainment industry who can be spotted on QI.
They work closely with the dinosaur people who bred people for the trade union’s and reporters for the Mail.
Who intern work for the wishful thinking tribe who post a lot on these pages so the circle is complete.

Labour and Tories are very different in some ways. They don’t share the same vision for the UK economy. The Tories seem happy to have a long period of stagnation, if it means that the deficit is eventually eliminated. Labour on the other hand want to be more active in helping to stimulate growth and are perhaps more opimistic in some ways. The fundamental philosophy of Tories is that only the private sector can really create proper growth and will wait for this to happen. Labour would be more active in seeking public/private partnerships to help drive growth, even if it means having a deficit for longer.

OLDNAT…………Don’t be ‘orrible, they do their best……….David Miliband MP South Shields…last spoke in House, July 3rd.,
2 written questions, one of the worst attendance and voting records in the House, But, ‘ang on, earnings outside Parliament…..£ 416,000, including : VantagePoint Cleantech Advisory Council, California, £90,000. It’s tough at the top ! :-)

This is OT but yesterday I had work. It was super casual Saturday for dress code and I wore my Che Guevarra-style Rose Bird t-shirt. Some of my coworkers wanted to know who she was (which was kinda cool). I realize now that it was inevitable that I’d vote for Prop 34. I mean how could I own a Rose Bird t-shirt and not vote for that prop, right?

He’s playing with the numbers. Here’s a plausible argument for what actually happened.

The million or so voters he is talking about are the ones who Blair pissed off. They didn’t vote for Blair in 05, safe in the knowledge that he would win anyway – abstaining salves their consciences. by 2010, Clegg had done a job on them, convincing them that he and his party combined the Caring Capitalism of Blair with a cuddlier, less authoritarian soft-left approach to human rights. They voted in their droves for that approach.

Here’s my thesis. Those million+ folks are (were) idealistic, soft-left wooly heads. They thought that they could pick and choose the nice bits that they wanted to hear. They have been given a crash-course in real grown-up politics and realise that they are responsible for Osborne being in No11. To mis-quote The Who, they won’t be soft-headed again. They realise that, from their perspective, 15 is a straight choice between a warts-and-all Labour Govt or a warts-is-all Tory one. Unless EM starts peeling babies, rolling them in salt and eating them on cocktail sticks[1], they are going to vote Labour.

I don’t see EM criticising the EU as being necessarily a right-ward shift. There are very strong reasons why the EU can be criticised from the Left – biggest of all being the insane insistence that fiscal contraction can pull Europe out of its hole.

BILLY BOB……….Gordon has, ‘earned’ over £ 1,400,000, since he left office, speaking in all sorts of weird places for staggering amounts of money, mostly private companies by the way. :-) However, he has channeled this money into various schemes which aren’t publicly accountable, therefore no accounts are available. Transparent it ‘aint. :-)

BILLY BOB…………. I have a natural distrust of politicians of all stripes, they have public and private faces. Gordon and Sarah socialise with New York glitterati in the Hamptons, although they are usually guests of Gavyn Davis the ex Goldman Sachs boss, who of course benefited greatly from Treasury work when GB was Chancellor. Don’t tell me you trust a man who happily socialises with, and is a regular guest of, New York bankers ? :-)

Perhaps this would be a good indicator of a ‘protest vote’ and how many would ‘come home’?
If this is a likely figure, the Lab back to Lib is relatively small and Lab’s support is pretty secure but UKIP support halves, returning it seems to the Cons.