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Traffic Report on 19 January '18

Nine objects reported inside ten LD

Nine minor objects are known to be within ten lunar distances (LD) of Earth today, and three of these over the course of the day are inside the Earth-Moon system, though no more than two at one time. Risk-listed 2018 BD began the day at 0.72 LD, after passing us at 0.102 LD yesterday, and moves out to 2.74 LD after flying by the Moon at 0.48 LD at 0238 UTC. And both newly announced 2018 BX and risk-listed 2018 BC come to a similar distance today: 0.73 LD at 2259 and 2022 UTC respectively.

This report was updated at 2042 UTC with the recovery of distant 2014 EY24 (MPEC). Your first local asteroid traffic report was generated at 1846 UTC with the discovery of intruder 2018 BX (MPEC, DOU), and with first follow-up for passing risk-listed intruder 2018 BC in today's DOU MPEC along with continuing follow-up for slowly outbound 2018 AV2 and the recovery of distant 2012 OQ.

Approaching (sorted by 10-LD bubble entry date)

6.96 LD Jan. 23

2018 AK12

29 m

17.55 from 22.25 LD

Jan. 21 - 24

9.27 LD Jan. 27

2018 BQ

26 m

10.86 from 11.26 LD

Jan. 22 - Feb. 1

8.0 LD Jan. 26*

2018 AL12

34 m

27.8 from 32.0 LD

Jan. 24 - 27

EPU +/- 6 mins.*

5.3 LD Feb. 4*

2018 AH12

14 m

18.7 from 19.9 LD

Jan. 28 - Feb. 12

EPU +/- 21 mins.*, NHATS target

3.7 LD Feb. 24*

2017 DR109

10 m

64.9 from 67.1 LD

Feb. 18 - March 1

EPU +/- 30 mins.*, NHATS target

3.76 LD March 7

2017 VR12

271 m

62.49 from 63.79 LD

Feb. 28 - March 13

radar/NHATS target

6.9 LD March 10*

2015 DK200

26 m

105.9 from 108.8 LD

March 6 - 14

EPU +/- 23.45 hours*, NHATS target

* EPU = Earth passage uncertainty

Reading: As CNET noted yesterday, there have been "overheated headlines" in the media recently about the approach of 2002 AJ129. NASA/JPL has a response to that today, explaining that this object and its passage (10.95 LD on February 4th) are interesting but not threatening. Spaceflight Now has a wrap-up on the progress of two sample-return missions that will visit near-Earth asteroids this year -- JAXA's Hayabusa 2 to 162173 Ryugu (1999 JU3) and NASA's OSIRIS-Rex to 101955 Bennu (1999 RQ36). Sometimes asteroid samples get delivered almost to our feet, such as with an Arizona bolide in June 2016. A new science paper analyzes that event and also reviews the SkySentinel network of all-sky cameras. Much, much further away -- out beyond Saturn, centaur 95P/Chiron (1977 UB) (also numbered as minor planet 2060) exhibits unusual cometary activity and is believed from stellar occultation to have one or more rings. A new paper suggests that its activity might be "caused by debris and material diverging from Chiron's ring, falling back to its surface, producing outbursts, and forming a bound or quasi-bound coma."

Notes: Ten times the distance to the Moon (ten LD) has no astronomical importance but is a useful boundary for reporting about transient natural objects that approach our planet's gravitational sphere of influence (SOI), which has a radius of about 2.41 LD from Earth's center. This puts a focus on some of the most important and very best NEO observation work, representative of the much larger NEO discovery and tracking effort. "Distant" is used here to describe objects that have approached Earth within ten LD since A/CC began these traffic reports eleven years ago but are not presently coming so close. Object temporal distances are derived by A/CC from JPL Horizons data. See also current sky chart and object details (alt-details), ephemerides, and today's timeline.

NEOCP Activity on 19 January '18

The MPC's NEO Confirmation Page has 50 listings

When last checked at 2358 UTC today, the Minor Planet Center's Near Earth Object discovery Confirmation Page (NEOCP) had 50 objects listed. Of these, 24 were "one nighters." The Tracking News counted a total of 87 listings on the NEOCP on this day.

K18B01M2018 BM1 (small asteroid, Q=4.054 AU, H=24.5 ~43m) was picked up at 1004 UT on 16 Jan. by PS1, observing it at Jan. 16.42-46p3 at w=22.2-7. This detection was confirmed by Micheli/Mauna Kea (Jan. 17.50p3 at G=22.0-22.6) and MRO (Jan. 19.25-28p4 at G=21.9-22.9).

Impact Risk Monitoring on 19 January '18

Summary Risk Table for Risk Assessments Updated Today (last checks: NEODyS at 2358 UTC)
See the CRT page for a list of all objects rated recently as risks and our ephemerides page for a list of risk-listed objects under current observation.
The time horizon for JPL is 100 years from today and for NEODyS is usually the year 2090. Both also post impact solutions beyond 100 years for a few special objects.
For the latest official risk assessments, and for explanations of the terminology, see the NASA/JPL Sentry and NEODyS CLOMON2 risk pages.

0000NNN000

Object

RiskMonitor

WhenNotedUTC

0000T0000YearRange

VI#

000NN00ProbCum

T0000PSCum

T0000PSMax

TS

Notes for Today's Latest Risk Assessments

2018 BP

NEODyS

1638

2034-2117

102

4.4e-07

-4.27

-4.91

0

NEODyS: "Based on 29 optical observations (of which 5 are rejected as outliers) from 2018-01-16.155 to 2018-01-18.097."

2018 BC

JPL Sentry

1638

2082-2106

7

1.23704e-05

-7.40

-7.85

0

JPL: Computed at 08:12 today Pacific time based on 42 observations spanning 1.9667 days (2018-Jan-17.21005 to 2018-Jan-19.176764). Diameter approximately 0.005 km. from weighted mean H=29.32.

NEODyS

1638

2082-2113

16

3.77e-05

-6.89

-7.1

0

NEODyS: "Based on 35 optical observations (of which 2 are rejected as outliers) from 2018-01-17.211 to 2018-01-17.985."

2018 AB12

JPL Sentry

1638

R E M O V E D

JPL: Risk listing removed at 1622 UTC today

NEODyS

1638

2103-2112

2

3.32e-08

-7.59

-7.69

0

NEODyS: "Based on 24 optical observations (of which 0 are rejected as outliers) from 2018-01-14.378 to 2018-01-18.355."

2018 AE4

NEODyS

1638

2110

1

2.63e-08

-7.64

-7.64

0

NEODyS: "Based on 31 optical observations (of which 2 are rejected as outliers) from 2018-01-13.463 to 2018-01-18.472."

2018 AE2

NEODyS

1638

2113

1

4.75e-08

-4.89

-4.89

0

NEODyS: "Based on 24 optical observations (of which 4 are rejected as outliers) from 2018-01-05.482 to 2018-01-18.216."

An impact solution, also known as a "virtual impactor" (VI), is not a prediction but rather a possibility derived from a variant orbit calculation that cannot be eliminated yet based on the existing data. Elimination can come quickly with just a little further observation or may take weeks or months, sometimes years. Once superceded or eliminated, a former impact solution has zero relevance to an object's risk. See Jon Giorgini's "Understanding Risk Pages" to learn more.