…THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MO VALLEY TO THE WRN GULF COAST…

…SUMMARY…
OUTBREAK OF SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL STATES WITH LARGE HAIL…DAMAGING WINDS…AND TORNADOES.

…SYNOPSIS…
A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED IN THE LEE OF THE SRN ROCKIES AT 12Z/SUN WILL SUBSTANTIALLY SLOW AS IT PROGRESSES TOWARDS NEB. AN ATTENDANT MID-LEVEL JET /AOA 50 KT AT 500 MB/ WILL PERSIST FROM THE DESERT SW…CURLING NWD FROM THE RED RIVER TO THE MO VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE…A CYCLONE SHOULD DRIFT EWD OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT ARCING EWD ACROSS THE CORN BELT TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. A DRYLINE/WEAKENING PACIFIC COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH ERN KS/OK INTO DEEP S TX IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.

…MO VALLEY TO THE WRN GULF COAST…
THE WARM SECTOR WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY BROAD/MOIST BENEATH AN EML WITH LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS BECOMING ESTABLISHED NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S INTO THE LOWER/MID-MS VALLEYS AND ARKLATEX BY SUN AFTERNOON. INITIALLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL.

AREAS OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z/SUN ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS TO MID-MO VALLEY. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY ALREADY BE SURFACE-BASED OR WILL TRANSITION TO BECOMING SO AS DIURNAL HEATING ENSUES. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS CONVECTION LIKELY DEVELOPS N/E.

THE MOST PROBABLE SEVERE RISK SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE TOWARDS PEAK HEATING…WITH CONFIDENCE GREATEST IN THIS OCCURRING NEAR THE SRN PERIPHERY OF EARLY DAY STORMS /CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX/. WITH ROBUST HEATING OCCURRING ACROSS TX…MLCAPE SHOULD PUSH 2500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. HODOGRAPHS APPEAR QUITE CONDUCIVE TO SUPERCELLS…CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND STRONG TORNADOES. WITH THE DRYLINE STALLING ACROSS NERN TX SUN EVENING…TRAINING SUPERCELL CLUSTERS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT.

ALONG THE DRYLINE FARTHER N INTO THE MO VALLEY…EARLY DAY CONVECTION MAY TEND TO LIMIT A GREATER SEVERE RISK. BUT WITH STRONG INSOLATION…MODERATE BUOYANCY MAY DEVELOP WITHIN A STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES SHOULD BE LARGELY MERIDIONAL…SUFFICIENT CURVATURE TO THE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH WOULD SUPPORT UPDRAFT ROTATION…WITH ALL SEVERE HAZARDS POSSIBLE.