As Quebec’s election campaign draws to a close, a new poll indicates the province may be headed for its first ever Coalition Avenir Québec government on Monday, likely a minority.

François Legault’s CAQ were favoured by 32 per cent of voters, while Philippe Couillard’s ruling Liberals were at 30 per cent, according to the survey, published Saturday.

The two sovereignist parties, meanwhile, were in a dead heat: Jean-François Lisée’s Parti Québécois was at 19 per cent, with Manon Massé’s Québec solidaire not far behind at 17 per cent.

Overall voting intentions. Leger/TVA Nouvelles

Despite the narrow gap between the CAQ and the Liberals in overall voter support, the CAQ is heavily favoured to win the Oct. 1 election because it dominates among francophone voters, who are in the majority in most of Quebec’s 125 ridings.

Among francophones, here was the breakdown in the latest poll:

CAQ: 37 per cent

Liberal: 17 per cent

PQ: 24 per cent

QS: 20 per cent

Other: 1 per cent

Among anglophones and other non-francophones, Couillard’s Liberals dominate:

Liberal: 71 per cent

CAQ: 14 per cent

QS: 7 per cent

PQ: four per cent.

The poll was conducted by Léger for Québecor.

“If the trends continue, it would be a CAQ government, probably a minority, but we can’t discount the idea that the CAQ government would be a majority,” pollster Jean-Marc Léger told Québecor news outlets.

He said there’s also a small chance of a Liberal minority.

Léger said the CAQ has managed to stop the decline in voter support it experienced in the early days of the campaign, while the Liberals are stagnating.

The PQ had been gaining favour early in the election but that support crumbled in the wake of Lisée’s decision to vehemently attack Massé and QS in the final debate.

Meanwhile, QS support is rising. It could win up to 10 seats, including its first outside of the Montreal region (Taschereau in Quebec City and Sherbrooke in the Eastern Townships are among the possibilities), Léger said.

Among those 18 to 34 years old, QS had the support of 32 per cent of respondents to the Léger poll. The CAQ was backed by 27 per cent of voters in that age group, the Liberals by 22 per cent and the PQ by 16 per cent.

The Liberals continue to register strong support in their traditional bastion, the Montreal region, where it had the support of 38 per cent of respondents, compared to 26 for the CAQ, 19 per cent for the PQ and 15 per cent for QS.

Early in the campaign, it appeared the CAQ was headed for a majority government but Legault saw his popularity drop after he repeatedly stumbled while trying to answer questions about his plan to cut immigration to Quebec by 20 per cent.

Here’s how the latest numbers compare to those in a Léger poll conducted in the early days of the campaign and published on Aug. 29:

CAQ: Dropped five percentage points. Now at 32 per cent, compared to 37 per cent.

Liberals: Dropped two points. Now at 30 per cent, compared to 32 per cent.

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