More good polling news

Colorado is tied. Romney up 1 in Michigan (via a respected Michigan pollster). Michigan was a state Obama won by almost 17%. If Michigan is this close, Romney will be in very good shape in other battlegrounds. See RCP for details.Here is the most important story no one is writing about: romney numbers are up in Michigan after a targeted ad campaign by a PAC. Obama spent 25 million on ads in May, and got nothing for it. our side seems to be better at ad messaging this cycle ( (think of Romney taking out Gingrich twice, and Santorum in primaries with big negative ad buys). Romney will have tons of money to spend this year. we may need it given Romney's downbeat campaigning style.

Meanwhile, Nate Silver of the New York Times 538 blog has his first electoral college model out today and finds a very close race. Obama is up 291-247. The model suggests a 2% Obama lead in popular vote. There is a big risk for Obama if the economy falters in the months ahead (expect desperate measures to prevent that). Romney needs to win Ohio and Virginia. Nothing new there. Silver thinks Nevada will be close. Only three states does he regard as regards as true tossups: Virginia, Ohio and Colorado. Everything else is a lean (Florida, North Carolina to Romney) or likely for one side or the other. He thinks Oregon could be in play. He is not sold on romney's chances in Wisconsin, though he says the state will be much closer than in 2008.

The Silver analysis is actually pretty good news, I think. It is based on a 2% national poll margin for Obama. Today, the two tracking polls, the only ones I take seriously, show the race even (Rasmussen) ) and Romney up 2 (Gallup). Silver has Obama up by including loser polls like Pew (Obama up 7).

Colorado is tied. Romney up 1 in Michigan (via a respected Michigan pollster). Michigan was a state Obama won by almost 17%. If Michigan is this close, Romney will be in very good shape in other battlegrounds. See RCP for details.

Here is the most important story no one is writing about: romney numbers are up in Michigan after a targeted ad campaign by a PAC. Obama spent 25 million on ads in May, and got nothing for it. our side seems to be better at ad messaging this cycle ( (think of Romney taking out Gingrich twice, and Santorum in primaries with big negative ad buys). Romney will have tons of money to spend this year. we may need it given Romney's downbeat campaigning style.

Meanwhile, Nate Silver of the New York Times 538 blog has his first electoral college model out today and finds a very close race. Obama is up 291-247. The model suggests a 2% Obama lead in popular vote. There is a big risk for Obama if the economy falters in the months ahead (expect desperate measures to prevent that). Romney needs to win Ohio and Virginia. Nothing new there. Silver thinks Nevada will be close. Only three states does he regard as regards as true tossups: Virginia, Ohio and Colorado. Everything else is a lean (Florida, North Carolina to Romney) or likely for one side or the other. He thinks Oregon could be in play. He is not sold on romney's chances in Wisconsin, though he says the state will be much closer than in 2008.

The Silver analysis is actually pretty good news, I think. It is based on a 2% national poll margin for Obama. Today, the two tracking polls, the only ones I take seriously, show the race even (Rasmussen) ) and Romney up 2 (Gallup). Silver has Obama up by including loser polls like Pew (Obama up 7).