Wednesday, 4 March 2015

Latest marginals polling from Lord Ashcroft

By Lord AshcroftBelow is the text of the polling presentation I gave in
London this evening, including my latest national poll findings and new
results from marginal seats in England and Scotland. Scroll down to find
the presentation slides, marginals report, and full data tables.
—
Good evening and welcome. If you have ever wondered what a pollster
does to celebrate his birthday, now you know. Somebody kindly asked me
this morning if this was the big “four-O”, and I was compelled to admit
this estimate was outside the margin of error.
This evening I will be unveiling my latest polling, both nationally
and in the marginals, and giving my overview of where I think we are in
the campaign that will end just nine weeks tomorrow.
This is the story of the parliament so far, as told by the nearly
2,000 national voting intention polls published since the last election.
The scattering of dots should serve as a useful warning against reading
too much into any one survey, but the trend is unmistakeable. Labour
have fallen from their peak above 40% to the low thirties, from which
the Conservatives have been unable to break free since the middle of
2012.
The Liberal Democrats, meanwhile, remain well below half their 2010
vote share, and UKIP have fallen back slightly from their peak at the
end of last year.
In other words, the polls are not bringing much joy to anyone except
the polling companies’ shareholders. But someone will be Prime Minister
after May 7th, and one of the parties will take the lead in forming a government.
Over the next nine weeks the voters must make a decision. That
decision will rest on three things: values, policies and personalities.
Let’s start with values – and this is from an 8,000-sample poll completed at the weekend.
If there is one positive attribute people associate with the
Conservatives it is willingness to take tough decisions for the long
term. They are also more likely than their rivals to be seen as
competent, and people marginally more likely to think the Tories are
clear about what they stand for – though only one third of people say it
is true of them. Only just over a quarter think the Tories will do what
they say, but it is a measure of the public view of politics that this
is still more than say this is true of any of the others. Notably,
people are twice as likely to think UKIP will do what they say than the
Lib Dems.
Labour remains ahead on its traditional virtues of standing for
fairness, being “on the side of people like me” and having its heart in
the right place. But still only around one third of voters think Labour
actually has these attributes, let alone any of the other parties.
On the issues, my large-sample Project Blueprint research has been
tracking throughout the parliament whether people think the
Conservatives, Labour or the Liberal Democrats have the best approach to
different policy areas.
Labour’s lead on the NHS and schools has widened since 2011, and
narrowed slightly over the last 18 months on tackling the cost of
living, though they remain comfortably ahead here.
On immigration, the Tories remain well ahead of Labour – albeit by a
reduced margin – when only the three main parties are included. But as I
found in the Ashcroft National Poll last month, UKIP take the lead when
they are introduced into the equation. This is the only area in which
UKIP have the most popular approach.
The Tories, meanwhile, retain the advantage on most economic issues,
especially the deficit, and retain a comfortable if slightly narrower
lead on reforming welfare to stop benefit dependency. They are also, by a
whisker, thought more likely than Labour to introduce practical
policies that will work in the long run.
Looking in more detail at people’s views about the economy, it may be
telling that I found people more likely than not – but only just – to
agree that “the right decisions are being made and things will improve
significantly in the next year or two”. Just over a year ago a majority
preferred the alternative statement, “in a year or two the economy will
be no better, or even worse, than it is now.”
How people expect to fare personally in any upturn is a different
question. Fewer than one in five say they are already feeling the
benefits of an economic recovery, while just over two fifths say that
although they are not feeling the benefits yet, they anticipate doing
do.
A stubborn four in ten, meanwhile, say they are not feeling any
benefits from an improved economy and they don’t expect to. A majority
of both Labour and UKIP voters say they expect any recovery to pass them
by.
An important factor that plays a part in people’s willingness to let
the Tories finish the job is whether they think the job is already
finished, or indeed whether it should ever have been started.
I found just over four in ten agreeing that “the national economy is
not yet fully fixed, so we will need to continue with austerity and cuts
in government spending over the next five years” – a good basis for
what I have described as the “coalition of the willing” the Tories need
to assemble to stay in office.
Just over a third, though, think “enough already”, agreeing that
“while a period of austerity was needed to fix the national economy, we
don’t need another five years of cuts in government spending.”
For nearly a quarter, austerity was never needed in the first place.
What about the personalities?
Just under one third say they are satisfied with David Cameron’s
performance as Prime Minister – a figure that has picked up slightly
over the past year. A similar proportion say they are dissatisfied, but
still prefer him as Prime Minister to Ed Miliband.
That leaves 38% who would rather see Ed Miliband in Downing Street
than David Cameron, which includes just over three quarters of Labour
voters. What the remaining quarter decide to do – whether they vote with
their preferred party or their preferred leader – is clearly one of the
biggest factors that will determine the outcome.
If you have been following my regular focus group reports, published
every Monday alongside the Ashcroft National Poll, you will see that I
have used different ways of uncovering people’s views of the leaders –
by asking people to imagine them as animals, cars, drinks and so on. If
this sounds like a frivolous thing to do, I think the results are quite
telling. In fact I think if I show you the compilation of images
suggested for each leader, you will be able to tell them apart.
Which party leader do you think undecided voters in our focus groups
imagined as Fred from Scoobie Doo, a Smart car, a bottle of Babycham,
and a Chihuahua in a handbag – and would be played in a movie of his
life by Tom Cruise?
Yes – Nick Clegg.
How about this one: a fox, a Vesper Martini, a Mercedes, Dick Dastardly, and Hugh Grant?
Yes – David Cameron.
Who, then is represented by the hapless Elmer Fudd, a drink like a
crème de Menthe that nobody would order, Mr Bean, and the Moon (because
he seems to be in a world of his own)?
Yes – Ed Miliband.
That means the last one is easy. But which is the real Nigel Farage?
Is he the menacing Cruella de Ville, a weasel, a four-by-four with bullbars and the tough-guy actor Ray Winstone?
Or is he the harmless but entertaining Andy Capp, a peacock, a pimped Ford Capri with tinted windows, and Sid James?
That’s enough of that. How will all these factors – the values, the
issues and the personalities – come together in the decision people make
in May?
Analysis of my large-sample Project Blueprint polls has shown the
part each of these things play in their decision to vote for one party
or another, and how their position has changed over the last three
years. This is how it plays out in the main battle, between Labour and
the Conservatives:
The vertical axis shows the importance of each factor in people’s
decision to vote for the Conservatives or Labour. The horizontal axis
shows whether Labour or the Tories lead on that particular issue.
The Conservatives, then, want as many factors as possible in the top
right quadrant. Labour want as many as possible in the top left.
The most important factors, which have actually increased in salience
over time, are about values – whether a party wants to help ordinary
people get on in life and whether they are “on the side of people like
me”. Here Labour have a clear lead.
The one Tory advantage on an issue of above average salience is over
whether they will do what they say – but as we have already seen, the
lead here is pretty negligible.
Throughout the parliament the Conservatives have led on both economic
management and overall leadership. But as those leads have increased,
they have become less salient.
At the same time, while immigration and welfare reform have increased in salience, the Conservative lead on them has narrowed.
The lesson here is not to emphasise again and again the difference
between David Cameron and Ed Miliband – people can see that for
themselves, as Elmer Fudd and Mr Bean will testify.
The point is to show why it matters – why it makes a difference which
of them is in Number Ten. You might say, to coin a phrase, that David
Cameron needs to weaponise himself.
With UKIP voters, my research has shown the attraction is more about
values and attributes than policies, and this illustrates which ones
matter. Here, the vertical axis shows the relevance of each factor in
people’s voting decision, and the horizontal axis shows the proportion
saying each attribute applies to UKIP.
UKIP supporters think their party is clear about what it stands for
and wants to help ordinary people, but one thing stands out above all
else – they think the party is on the side of people like them.
My poll revealed another point about UKIP voters, particularly
defectors from the Conservatives, that may defy some assumptions. It is
often thought that Tory-UKIP switchers are overwhelmingly life-long
Conservatives, but this is not the case.
My latest research found that among Tory switchers to UKIP, just
under half said they had always voted Conservative. For more than a
fifth of defectors, 2010 was the first time they had voted Conservative
for a long time, or the first time ever.
My focus group research has helped reveal more about the decision
voters are considering. We regularly ask people to say in their own
words what the parties is trying to tell them, and what their main
reservations are about each.
Labour’s main message, as heard by the voters, is “save the NHS”.
They regard this as a good thing, on the whole. But most people are not
sure how Labour intend to go about this, let alone solving some of the
deep-seated problems they think the NHS faces, other than by spending
more money – which is also (alongside Ed Miliband) the biggest
reservation they have about returning Labour to office.
The essence of the Conservative message that people hear is “let us
finish the job”, which will please Number Ten. But there is uncertainty
about exactly what this entails and how long it will take. As one woman
in a focus group asked, “just how long is this Long Term Economic Plan?”
More to the point, and to return to our observations about the
recovery and the future of austerity, how will they benefit when it is
complete? As one man put it, “I work in the public sector and my concern
is that they really will finish the job”.
If people have heard anything from the Liberal Democrats – which is
by no means a given – it is a promise to balance the extremes of the
other parties. The doubt is whether the party have really shown it has
the capacity or even the willingness to do this. In Lib Dem areas, this
concern competes with the usually good reputation of the local MP.
UKIP’s message is pretty unambiguous, and everybody has heard it. But
even those who largely agree with them wonder what they have to say
about other things that also matter when electing a government.
And even some who find Nigel Farage reasonable and refreshing wonder
whether the party harbours unsavoury elements or has unattractive
policies it is keeping under wraps.
The Greens want to save the world, which, again, doesn’t sound to
most people like a bad thing. But people wonder how much this would cost
them – and, as with UKIP, what their other priorities are.
All these things will ultimately be resolved in the marginal seats,
which is where we now return. In this round I have looked at a further
four seats the Conservatives are defending from Labour, plus – since you
enjoyed them so much last time – another batch from Scotland.
First, the Conservative seats – Colne Valley, High Peak, Norwich
North and the Vale of Glamorgan with majorities over Labour of between
8.8% and 10.6%. Although the Liberal Democrats came second in Colne
Valley in 2010, I don’t think it is too controversial to consider Labour
the main challengers this time round.
In three of the four seats the results are effectively too close to call.
I found Labour ahead by a single point in High Peak and Norwich
North, and a one-point Tory lead in Colne Valley. The Conservatives
retained a slightly more comfortable six-point margin in the Vale of
Glamorgan.
So, back to Scotland. In the previous round, published last month, I
looked mostly at Labour seats in areas which recorded a high Yes vote in
the referendum. There I found an overall swing from Labour to the SNP
of more than 25%, with swings in individual seats ranging from 21% to
27%.
This time I have looked at Labour seats in areas where support for
independence was lower, including some of particular individual
interest. I have also polled two more Lib Dem seats, as well the only
current Conservative seat in Scotland.
I should say at this point that I have seen it suggested that the
Tories should be targeting one or both of Angus or Perth & North
Perthshire, on the rather optimistic grounds that they are only nine
points behind the SNP in both constituencies. I hope nobody will be too
deflated to hear that I have not polled these seats, since I regard the
idea of the SNP losing seats to the Tories or anybody else as rather
fanciful this time round.
So what did I find?
In the two Lib Dem constituencies, I found swings of more than 20%
from the Lib Dems to the SNP, which would mean SNP gains both in
Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine and in Charles Kennedy’s seat of
Ross, Skye & Lochaber. Were such a result to be repeated across the
board at the election, the Scottish Lib Dems would be reduced to a
single outpost in Orkney & Shetland – though since I found a swing
of only 15% to the SNP in the previous round in Gordon, they may yet be spared such a fate.
In Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale, where David Mundell
flies his solitary flag, I found a very tasty contest: a 13.5% swing to
the SNP, which would mean a recount or even a toss of the coin were this
snapshot to be repeated in nine weeks’ time.
In the Labour seats, I found a bigger range of swings to the SNP than
was the case in last month’s batch. However, that will be little
comfort to the Labour Party in Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock, or in
Dumfries & Galloway, or in Alistair Darling’s current seat of
Edinburgh South West, or even in Gordon Brown’s home constituency of
Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath, where I found the biggest swing to the SNP
of any Labour seat I have polled.
But what of Jim Murphy? Well, on the basis of this snapshot, after 7th May……he may be rather lonely in Westminster but at least he’ll be there.
Where, then, does this leave our analysis of the battleground? Pay attention – this is the sciencey bit.
As things stand, the Conservatives have 46 more seats than Labour in
the House of Commons. Forty-six is therefore the Magic Number.
If, taken together, the number of net Conservative losses and net
Labour gains is more than 46, Labour will be the largest party after the
election.
If the combined total is less than 46, the Conservatives remain the largest party.
(If the combined total is46, the parties will be the same size. What happens after that could depend on what sort of mood Her Majesty is in).
Of course, these Labour gains do not all have to be from the Conservatives, and vice versa.
My polling has found the Tories ahead in ten seats currently held by
the Liberal Democrats. But I have also found Labour ahead in ten current
Lib Dem seats – so no net advantage to either party there.
So to simplify, let’s assume for the sake of argument that
Conservative and Labour gains from the Lib Dems cancel each other out –
as do any seats that either party may lose to UKIP.
That takes us back to the giant spanner in Labour’s works that is
Scotland. When we factor that in, this is the equation we have:
The Magic Number of forty-six, plus the total of Labour losses to the
SNP – divided by two – is the number of Conservative seats Labour must
gain to have the same number of seats in the House of Commons. (We have
to divide by two to avoid double counting, because each Conservative
loss is also a Labour gain).
If Labour held on to everything they currently have in Scotland, they
would need to take 23 seats from the Conservatives to become the
largest party. For every two seats they lose in Scotland, they have to
take another from the Conservatives to compensate.
If, on the day, the swing to the SNP only reached 10%, only two seats
would change hands. If the swing were to reach 15%, Labour would lose
19 seats.
But if the swing to the SNP reached 22% across the board, Labour could lose 36 seats to the SNP.
If that were to happen, the number of net gains Labour needed to make
from the Conservatives for the parties to be the same size would be forty-one.
And of the 59 Conservative-held seats I have polled in which Labour
are the principal challengers, I have found Labour ahead in……forty-one. That – and this is not a forecast – would give Labour and the Conservatives 272 seats each in the House of Commons.
But some of the results from my polling in those 41 seats were very close, and some of them are now several months old.
Both these scenarios may therefore be at the outside edge of
expectations: 41 gains from the Tories might in fact be an ambitious
target for Labour, and 36 gains from Labour might in reality prove a bit
much for the SNP.
On the other hand, it is hard to see things getting any worse for
Labour in Scotland, while things are on a knife-edge elsewhere.
But as things stand, Labour losses in Scotland could offset their
gains from the Tories, leading to something close to a dead heat.
This, then, is the battle: can the Conservatives fight back against
Labour faster than Labour can fight back against the SNP? It is just as
well I never bet on politics.
There is plenty of time for movement before polling day. For the
reasons I explained earlier, many voters have dilemmas to resolve over
the next nine weeks. And as these numbers show, the outcome really will
come down to the results in individual constituencies.
That is why I will carry on with both my polling both at the national
level and in the marginals – the next instalment of which will
investigate how far Labour can rely on some of the Conservative seats in
which my previous polling has found them only slightly ahead.
Meanwhile, thank you for your attention and remember that everything you have seen this evening is a snapshot, not a prediction.
Thank you very much.

UK GENERAL ELECTION 2015 SEATS WON

WAYS YOU CAN FOLLOW THIS BLOG

HOW YOU CAN HELP THIS BLOG

Thank you for looking at our blog, No donation is needed keep your money for yourself. BUT! If you could share a link for this blog on your own blog or sites you visit, or leave a comment on this blog or become a follower on Twitter, Facebook or Google+. That would be very gratefully appreciated.