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California takes aim for the top of the podium this week when it travels to Indianapolis for the 2017 NCAA Women's Swimming & Diving Championships. The Golden Bears, currently ranked second, have finished among the top three teams in the country each of the last eight years - the longest current streak in the nation.

Competition gets underway Wednesday night with a timed final in the 800-yard free relay. The schedule shifts on Thursday through Saturday to morning prelims starting at 7 a.m. PT and finals at 3 p.m. PT.

Cal last won the team title in 2015, and the Bears finished third last year. They are the two-time defending champions in the 200 free relay and enter the meet ranked No. 1 in the event.

Cal's lineup of 13 swimmers and one diver features 19 individual swims and all five relays seeded among the top 16. Leading the list is sophomore Kathleen Baker, a two-time Olympic medalist who paces the country in the 200 back and is ranked second in both the 100 back and 200 IM.

The womenís D1 national championship meet starts on Wednesday. Weíve scored the psych sheet and examined how performance changes from the psych sheet at the big meet. Itís now time to combine to two into a forecast of the meet.

I ran a Monte Carlo simulation of the NCAA womenís meet minus diving (most top teams have 1 or 0 divers except Minnesota, and UCLA who have 3).

The top teams unsurprisingly remain unquestioned under this procedure.

Stanford won over 99.9% of the time. California was 2nd over 99.9% of the time.

Can the Golden Bears pull off a huge upset and win the team title over favorite Stanford?

Cal senior Farida Osman and the Golden Bears will be looking to finish 1st in several events this week at the 2017 NCAA championships. |Cal Womenís Swimming and Diving Facebook

With Cal Menís Basketball not in the running for the NCAA title, Cal swimming (and diving) will most certainly wins some individual, relay, and possibly team NCAA titles in these next two weeks with Womenís meet this week and the Menís meet next week. Given that the two sports that Cal dominates traditionally are not governed by the NCAA (menís crew and rugby), NCAA swimming national championships is indeed the time when Cal earns most NCAA national championship titles traditionally.

Can anyone beat Katie Ledecky? Or rather, by what margin will Katie Ledecky break her own records? These are probably the two biggest questions heading into this meet, with all eyes on the Stanford freshman superstar.

When you concede the 500 Free, 1650 Free, 800 Free Relay, etc. to Ledecky, Stanford has got a fairly big margin for error. For the Golden Bears to potentially challenge Stanford, they would need to win all the other relays (which didnít happen at the Pac-12 few weeks ago) and edge Stanfordís other stars in the other events (also didnít happen).

Simone Manuel (another Rio 2016 Olympic darling), Ella Eastin, Janet Hu are the other Stanford swimmers expected to win multiple NCAA titles. Stanford also has Ally Howe on the backstroke who may challenge Calís dominance in that stroke this year.

Letís take a quick glance at each event:

500 Free - Katie Ledecky will dominate this event. Top Cal finisher should be Katie McLaughlin (7th best seed time). Maybe Chenoa Devine can sneak into the B-Final.

200 IM - This should be the first of many Cal-Stanford battle at the top. Calympian Kathleen Baker may be the only person who can challenge Stanfordís Ella Eastin in this event. Cal senior Celina Li should also score points for the Bears if she can drop some time from her psych sheet.

50 Free - USA Olympic teammates and rivals will fight for the top spot in this one. Stanfordís Simone Manuel has had the better time over Calympian freshman Abbey Weitzeil, but I donít think we have seen the best from Weitzeil this year yet. Also in the mix are Cal senior Egypitan Calympian Farida Osman and Stanfordís forgotten Olympian in Lia Neal. Calís freshman Maddie Murphy and sophomore Amy Bilquist may also be able to score in this event.

100 Fly - Stanfordís Janet Hu has the top seed time, but look for Calís Calympians in Farida Osman (Egypt) and Noemie Thomas (Canada) to challenge for the title. Freshman Maddie Murphy should also contribute points.

200 Free - Simone Manuel and Katie Ledecky are the top two seeds in this event. Calís Kristin Vredeveld and Katie McLaughlin should score points (hopefully in the A-Final). Abby Weitzeil need to shave more time off her seed time to score points.

100 Breast - Olympian and local (Indiana) star Lilly King should win this one. Calís Marina Garcia and Stanfordís Kimberly Williams should be the top contenders in this event (by far the weakest stroke for both Bay Area rivals).

100 Back - Stanfordís Aly Howe had a terrific swim in this event at the Pac-12, but I still have faith in Calís Kathleen Baker to pull this one out and defend Calís ďBackstroke UĒ title. Stanfordís Hu and Calís Bilquist are also in the mix.

1650 Free - Will Katie Ledecky laps the field? Chenoa Devine is the top Cal qualifier here but her seed time is only 27th best (maybe she can score some points).

200 Back - In my worst case scenario for this meet, Cal only wins one title (like in the Pac-12) and that would be Calympian Kathleen Baker in the 200 Back. Stanfordís Janet Hu may be Bakerís top challenger here. Calís Amy Bilquist is the dark horse.

100 Free - Simone Manuel has a firmer grip on this event than the 50 Free, but I hope Abbey Weitzeil and Farida Osman can challenge her here (both should be A-Finalists regardless). Hopefully, Maddie Murphy and Valerie Hull can surprise and score more points for the Bears here.

200 Breast - The only other event without a Stanford/Cal frontrunner. Lilly King should win this one. Calís Marina Garcia is a 15 seed (may she make the A-Final). Stanford may not score any points here.

200 Fly - Stanfordís Ella Eastin is the favorite here. Calís Katie MacLaughlin should be an A-Finalist, but sheís got to swim a PR to challenge Eastin here. Calympian Noemie Thomas should also score points for the Bears here, if not challenge for the title.

As for the relays, Stanfordís dominance in 200 Free basically clinched the 800 Free. I expect that both medley relays (200 and 400) to be really competitive (Bears are counting on sprinter Abbey Weitzeil for the breaststroke leg here). The 200 and 400 Free relays should also be fun. Calís the favorite in the 200 Free relay based on the psych sheet.

Scoring the psych sheet, Stanford will run away with this meet with 551 points to Calís 400 points (USC is 3rd with 246).

Diving - I have not looked at how many Stanford divers have qualified but Calís sophomore Phoebe LaMay will compete in both spring board events (1-meter and 3-meter). She should score some points (at least the B-Final) there.

Who will swim 800 Relay for the Bears?

We'll be swimming for 2nd place but will the Bears go with the same foursome that swam in the Pac-12 6:53.37. If my maths was correct their legs were

Kathleen 1.43.17
Katie 1.42.82
Abbey 1.43.84
Amy 1.43.54

Wonder if they want to keep Abbey off for additional rest and go with KV who did win the B final at pac-12 with a great time of 1.44.51. My uneducated guess they might go with KV, who is swimming well.

Juggling our relay lineups

The furdette juggernaut's going to kick off NCs with quite an explosive display tonight in their best relay event, and frankly I don't see any team capable of even keeping pace with them there

I would therefore personally save Abbey for the 400 Medley relay as her 4th relay in order to seriously challenge Manuel in an event where Cal's pretty close to them (Weitzeil's already a shoo-in for the pair of shorter free relays, and very likely taking on breast duties on the 200 Medley relay). As good/great as Farida is (also consider that we could always use Farida on the fly leg if she's proving to be the hotter hand than Noemie), we'll need every advantage we can squeeze out of Abbey on the anchor leg of the 400 Medley relay, and imo Abbey is prob. capable of dropping more time over Farida on the free leg than over Marina on the breast leg, in particular at the longer distance.

KV is showing signs of breaking out of her plateau since her studly HS days, so I'm going to venture out on a limb that Teri may place her confidence in Kristen in her senior year by rewarding Vredeveld with a spot on this relay (over Abbey).

No one's going to realistically touch the furdettes in what will prob. be yet another record-breaking spree of theirs here (LSJU won't even have to bring in Manuel to be pretty assured of a win in the 800 Free relay, saving her for the medley relays instead where they will be much more challenged...notably by the Bears)...

But with a KV swimming faster than she has ever been in college, a confident Thleen who has her Crohn's under control, Amy hopefully dropping more time if she has recovered from her stress-fracture issues @ Pac-12s, plus a post-neck injury Katie McL surging nicely back to form just in the nick of time, the squad should be strong enough to hold off the fast-charging Trojanettes or Wolverines for the 800 Free relay runner-up spot without having to call up Abbey in her weakest event...

Last edited by UrsusArctosCalifornicus; 03-15-2017 at 09:46 AM.
Reason: typo

SwimSwam: "Stanford shreds the American and NCAA records. 6:45.91 to take it down by over 3 seconds. Michigan third in 6:53.63. Texas fourth in 6:54.83. Ledecky blasts 1:40.46 anchor split, but Comerford's 1:40.2 was the fastest of the night."

Unbelievable swim by the furds. Their reaction time cutting it close considering how far they were ahead! Shucks, no DQ this time.

Haha unfortunately DQs are relatively rare in this longer distance relay...still, one could but hope for some to come with regards to the other team from across the Bay, since they do enjoy a bit of a history in that dept...

So Greg chose to use Simone here perhaps partly to fire up his squad, guess that move didn't hurt the furdies either when it came to breaking more records lol ... but with a spot of luck, this might come back to bite LSJU if the 400 Medley Relay contest turns out to be close, as Lia will prob. be put on free duty in the absence of Manuel, whilst we'll then have Abbey to call upon since she sat out the 800 relay tonight (good call by our coaches I reckon, since KV's time this evening wasn't that far off Abbey's in this relay @ Pac-12s, and it would have been asking too much tasking Abbey to try & make up the 5-and-a-half sec gap to Stanford's record winning time anyway).

Furdettes still projected to win by a substantial margin esp with diving points added to the mix...how well they do isn't something under our team's control however (though Mallory Comerford's 1:40.21 + Siobhan's 1:41.81 flying splits & Leah's 1:42.46 leadoff do provide a ray of hope for their breaking up a potential Ledecky-Manuel-Neal sweep of the 200 Free individual race on Fri!), so just going to cheer on our women after an encouraging start just now.

Would be very happy if Cal can limit the trees' margin of victory to double-digits at the end of the meet, whilst taking away a couple of individual & relay titles from the expected/favoured victor in red. Go Bears!

btw Amy's unheralded 1:42.08 relay split (her fastest one to date by quite a bit) bodes well for the rest of the meet...seems she has hopefully overcome her physical health issues from Pac-12s (where she had busted out a respectable 1.43.54 split on this relay), and will be on a roll the rest of the week

Similarly chuffed w/Thleen's 1:42.66 PB leadoff, whilst Katie's 1:42.71 anchor may be her fastest split ever from a rolling start for that distance!

If Kathleen & Amy's times from this relay is an accurate indicator of their current general form, could make Teri & Ian's selection process for our back leadoff leg in the medley relays a rather interesting one...

INDIANAPOLIS Ė With only one event on the schedule for the opening night of the NCAA Championships, California didn't have much margin for error to showcase its capabilities.

And the Golden Bears certainly came through, finishing second in the 800-yard free relay with a time of 6:51.42, which now stands as the No. 3 time in school history. The result was a nearly two-second drop from their time at the Pac-12 Championships three weeks ago. Senior Kristen Vredeveld and three sophomores Ė Kathleen Baker, Amy Bilquist and Katie McLaughlin Ė comprised the squad. Freshman Abbey Weitzeil, who was part of the Pac-12 foursome, was able to rest in order to remain fresh for her specialty, Thursday's 50 free.

Baker led off with a lifetime-best 1:42.66 split, which was the second-fastest ever for a Cal swimmer leading off the relay and put her No. 5 all-time at the school on the 200 free top performers list. Vredeveld (1:43.97) followed, with Bilquist (1:42.08) third in the water and McLaughlin on anchor (1:42.71).

"I thought it was a really good race for us," head coach Teri McKeever said. "Kristen really stepped up and did an amazing job, and with three sophomores, it speaks really well for the future. I think it's important to do better than we did at Pac-12s and get the nerves out. It's a nice way to get the competition going."

As expected, Stanford took the early scoring lead with a record-breaking performance. Simone Manuel (1:41.41), Lia Neal (1:42.15), Ella Eastin (1:41.89), and Katie Ledecky (1:40.46) did not dissapoint, earning 40 points for the Cardinal with their 6:45.91.

Whatís important to note here, however, is that Stanford opted to use Manuel on this relay, meaning she wonít be able to compete on at least 1 of the 4 remaining relays. Fellow sprint standout Neal will also be unavailable for one of the remaining relays. Itís interesting that they used this strategy considering their clear dominance with or without Manuel in the 800 free relay, while Manuel couldíve been the big difference maker in another race.

This puts their potential relay sweep in jeopardy, as Cal was already within hundredths of the Cardinal in both the 200 free relay and 200 medley relay at Pac-12s, and is within striking distance in the 400 medley relay.

Speaking of the Bears, thereís another interesting point of discussion when we look at the Bearsí lineup. While Abbey Weitzeil was a part of Calís 800 free relay at Pac-12s, they opted to swap her out for Kristen Vredeveld this time around. This could be because sheís more valuable on the other relays, but itís also noteworthy because of her health issues following the 200 free at Pac-12s last month.

At the end of the 200 free final at Pac-12s, Weitzeil showed fatigue at the end of the race, splitting 29.00 over her last 50 yards Ė slower than anybody else in any of the 3 finals. After exiting the pool, she laid down on deck and had to be assisted away from the blocks. Weitzeil was then absent for the 100 free and 400 free relay on Saturday.

Day 2 Prelims

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Ugh, a wee too early for me Anyway, morning heats of Day 2 now in session.

Bears won Heat 4 and earned a comfy 2nd seed into tonight's 200 Free Relay finals, w/o using Abbey. Farida, Amy, Val & KV contributed a solid 1:26.67...Cal had done a 1:26.31 back in Dec at the Georgia Invite.

UGA 3rd in 1:26.90 w/a nice leadoff from Olivia Smoliga.

Oh btw furdettes busted out an NCAA/American record of 1:26.15...for a moment I was hoping they'd be DQ'ed when the results from their heat remained unofficial lol, but it wasn't meant to be as UNC was the culprit.

500 prelims

Of course, Katie L leads the way and furds 2 into the B finals too. Katie followed by Leah Smith, GRyan, Mallory Comerford, Unfortunately Katie McLaughlin no A or B coming in #22. Shocker at #25 was Cierra Runge.

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Guess we will start losing ground to LSJU with the 500 Free event, since no Bears qualified for finals, whilst furdettes will field 1 up scorer (Ledecky who naturally is expected to win easily) and 2 downs (Byrnes & Stevens).

Not too much of a biggie since distance has been long one of our archilles' heel, but am a mite worried about Katie McL who had added over 5 sec to her seed time to end up 22nd. This event isn't kt's normal cuppa tea to start with (taking one for the team), just hoping that it won't impact her 200 free & fly later on.

Chenoa also went 3 sec slower to end up in the 41st position, but take into consideration that she had probably fully rested for Pac-12s just to get into NCAAs. Note that both the Cardinal's Drabot and former Cierra added 6 sec to fall out of a scoring spot.

In the 200 free relay final will McKeever substitute two 50 free final qualifiers in Abbey Weitzeil & Maddie Murphy? Cal possesses depth in this event. The Bears had the fastest time entering the prelims but the Cardinal prevailed by 0.5 seconds. This is one event that Cal has a shot at winning...GO BEARS!

In the 200 free relay final will McKeever substitute two 50 free final qualifiers in Abbey Weitzeil & Maddie Murphy? Cal possesses depth in this event. The Bears had the fastest time entering the prelims but the Cardinal prevailed by 0.5 seconds. This is one event that Cal has a shot at winning...GO BEARS!

Out & about so missed a large part of prelims...

Yeah, prob Abbey, Farida, Maddie (not in order)...and I'd personally put in Amy over KV or Val as the 4th relay member there. Freshie Maddie is even better than advertised, and Murphy just making it to the A final of the 50 free individual will really help with our team scoring even if she was to come in last tonight (8th = 11 pts).

As for the 2 relays, we def have a shot in the 200 free version with the aforementioned substitutions in spite of fave LSJU breaking the NCAA & AR this morning. Also an even better chance perhaps in the 400 medley variant - furdettes will def. improve their time there tonight by replacing Hu with Howe on the back leadoff spot, and Hu taking over Engel on the fly leg, but Williams is their best breaststroker and Meehan won't be able to bring in Manuel on the free anchor.

Speaking of Amy, she had put down a personal best of 22 flat in the 50 free individual, so had to battle it out with Trojanette Anika Apostalon for a spot in tonight's B final. Alas, Anika who's a consistent high 21s sprinter won the swimoff with her 21.80, even tho Amy did churn out a lifetime best of 21.94, dipping below the 22-sec barrier for the first time (that time would have secured 7th in the A final behind Lia Neal @ 2016 NCAAs, but this event has just become so ridiculously fast this year!)