'We got what we wanted': Did Donald Trump goad Turkey into Syria assault?

Jake Tapper thinks Trump letter is a joke

Recep Tayyip Erdogan was so infuriated by a letter he received from Donald Trump urging him not to attack Kurdish forces last week, the Turkish president threw it in the bin.

Within hours Turkish troops launched the incursion into Syria.

In the video above, CNN initially thought Trump's letter was a hoax.

Now questions are being asked over whether it was Trump's unilateral decision to pull troops out of Kurdish-held north eastern Syria that gave a green light to the Turkish incursion, or if it was his bizarre letter, part threat, part banter - that actually goaded Erdogan into expediting the operation.

"We just dumped his letter into the trash,” a Turkish presidential source told the Middle East Eye on Thursday.

"The date on the letter is 9 October, the same day we began Operation Peace Spring.

"Our president gave the best response by launching the operation on the same day at 4pm."

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, left, and US Vice President Mike Pence hold a press conference at the US Embassy in Ankara on Thursday to announce the ceasefire. Credit: Getty

In the extraordinary letter, Trump threatens to destroy the Turkish economy before urging the country's president "don’t be a tough guy. Don’t be a fool!”.

The White House subsequently leaked the letter to Fox Business presenter Trish Regan, in a move widely seen as an attempt by the US president to answer accusations he effectively gave a green light to the Turkish offensive, by pulling troops out of Syria and leaving the US's ally in the fight against ISIS in the region without backup.

'A great day'

On Thursday, Turkey agreed to a five day pause in hostilities, with the US president describing the development as "a great day for civilisation".

At a press conference in Texas, Trump said millions of lives had been saved by his "unconventional tough love approach".

"So are you saying that you planned for these people to attack each other?" a reporter asked him.

The president dismissed the suggestion but repeated his assertion that the situation in Syria warranted an "unconventional" solution.

"The conventional solution is to sit down, negotiate, and they've done that for 15 years actually, more than that, I understand," Trump said.

"And that was never going to work. But all of a sudden when they saw and how nasty it was and how rough it would get. It would get 100 times worse than what was happening. But when they saw the level of nastiness they said, let's make a deal. Everybody together, let's make a deal."

Turkey is responsible

Counter-terrorism expert Jacinta Carroll, Director of National Security Policy at the Australian National University's National Security College, told 7NEWS.com.au there was a danger in overestimating the role Washington is playing in the Syrian/Turkey conflict, while Trump has long stated his intention of pulling US troops out of the region.

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'Trump's letters provide a convenient prop for Turkey.'

"It's highly unlikely that President Erdogan would make any decision such as this the wasn't calculated," she said, pointing out that the Turkish government has been advertising its intention to create a 'buffer zone' on the Syrian side of the border for years.

US president Donald Trump describes the ceasefire in Syria as "a great day for civilisation". Credit: Getty

"Erdogan's government is under very significant pressure at home, politically and economically, and it has been attempting to divert pressure by blaming others for its actions, including the US and other NATO allies.

"But President Erdogan and the Turkish government are the ones responsible for Turkey's actions in Syria."

Five days to get out

In what Turkish authorities have described as a "pause" - not a ceasefire - Kurdish forces have five days to lay down their weapons and withdraw from a 32 km "safe zone" Turkey has been trying to capture for more than a decade.

"We got what we wanted", said Turkey's foreign minister, Mevlut Cavusoglu, on Thursday, after negotiations with US Vice President Mike Pence and US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in Ankara.

Pence said Washington had already been in contact with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which had agreed to withdraw and were already pulling out.

Trump said on Thursday the Kurds were "incredibly happy" with the deal.

"This is a solution that really well, it saved their lives frankly," he said. "It saved their lives."

Ultimatum

At home, the ceasefire has been greeted with widespread skepticism, even from within elements of the Republican party.

Former Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney, who early on in Trump's presidency was actually under consideration for secretary of state, told the Senate on Thursday the deal was "a far cry from victory".

“What we have done to the Kurds will stand as a blood stain in the annals of American history,” he said.

Republican senator Mitt Romney after speaking about Turkey and Syria on the Senate floor on Thursday. Credit: Getty

In a tweet on Friday, Republican senator from Florida Marco Rubio said the ceasefire had played into the hands of Erdogan and amounted to an ultimatum to the Kurds.

"He still plans to rid area of Kurds & create “security zone”, but is giving Kurds an ultimatum, they can leave voluntarily or leave dead," he tweeted.

Carroll said it was important to remember that neither the US nor any of its international partners active in Syria have ever supported Kurdish independence, and while the Syrian Democratic Forces have had some control in the country's north for a number of years, this region was still part of the sovereign state of Syria.

US has limited role

The only mandate the US has to work with the Kurdish militia is in the fight against ISIS, she said, and even then, in a supportive and advisory - not combative - capacity.

"The support that the US and other partners have provided to the SDF over the past few years, including military equipment, training and mentoring, has provided invaluable assistance to the SDF," she said.

"That means that they and their Syrian Kurdish political leaders are now in a better position to negotiate their future - both with the Syrian Government and with Turkey."