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Archive for October, 2010

In this dopey election season with the blowout governor’s race, we actually are witnessing something historic: the probable end of the competitive two-party political system in Tennessee.

This troubling development for democracy will come as a shock to many voters after next week’s elections. That’s because, in one of the worst political malpractices ever committed, no one is telling them about it.

Rather than talking about the need for choice in elections — and warning about the crazy stuff Republicans will do if given free rein — Tennessee Democrats stubbornly have stuck to their playbook of campaigns past (as dreadfully unsuccessful as it has been). That is, they have masqueraded as Republicans — not really Democrats at all, but God-fearing, Nancy Pelosi-hating good ol’ boys just like their opponents.

When U.S. voters go to the polls next week, there’s a lot more at stake than just who controls Congress next year.

The outcome could also decide who holds power in the House of Representatives–and maybe even the White House–over the next decade.

The reason? Legislatures all across the nation will redraw the boundaries of congressional seats based on the 2010 Census, as required every 10 years by the U.S. Constitution. The party that wins more governor races and state legislatures will gain the upper hand in the remapping process.

The Republicans’ expected gains next week go way beyond Congress. The GOP could capture new Senate or House majorities in a dozen to 18 states — along with critical new power to redraw district maps and influence elections for a decade to come.

Three of the biggest prizes are New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania. All three states are expected to lose seats in Congress as a result of the 2010 census, and that’s sure to ignite boundary fights. A party’s congressman on the wrong end of redistricting can find the district he’s represented for years no longer exists.

Democrats have hopes, too. They aim to take away state Senate control in Michigan and Kentucky and the House in Texas and Tennessee. Texas would be a particular victory, since it seems likely to have four more seats to divvy up under the new census. But none of the analysts contacted by The Associated Press predicted the Democrats would succeed in any of those states.

Both houses in Florida, a state that’s expected to gain two seats in Congress, are likely to remain under GOP control.

Welcome to this week’s edition of REDMAP Rundown, a synopsis of redistricting news brought to you by the RSLC’s REDistricting MAjority Project (REDMAP). This weekly update gives you the latest on what those in the Beltway, and across the country, are saying about the impending reapportionment and redistricting process.

In this week’s REDMAP Rundown: No region untouched, Getting it right and having a big impact, New York turnout gimmicks and Decked in Wisconsin.

“From Virginia to Florida and South Carolina to Texas, nearly two dozen Democratic seats are susceptible to a potential Republican surge in Congressional races on Election Day,” according to the New York Times. “… Districts, along with others held by incumbents in Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi and North Carolina, are central to the Republican strategy to win the [U.S.] House. For the first time since Reconstruction, Republicans also are well-positioned to control more state legislative chambers and seats than Democrats in the South, which would have far-reaching effects for redistricting. ‘It’s not a good prospect for the Democratic Party in the South,’ said Glen Browder, a former Democratic congressman from Alabama.’”

Stateline.org weighs in saying, “The last time Republicans controlled a statehouse chamber in Alabama, Ulysses S. Grant was president and Thomas Edison still hadn’t perfected electric lighting. But if the GOP’s gains are as big as many predict this election, Alabama could be one of many states that will see one or both statehouse chambers go from Democratic blue to Republican red. … Tim Storey, an elections expert at the National Conference of State Legislatures, says … ‘If Alabama were to move to the GOP column, it would reflect a 20-year trend of Southern legislatures re-aligning under the Republican banner.’ … Other state chambers that insiders say could flip to Republican control include the Senate in New Hampshire and New York; the House in Indiana, Ohio and Pennsylvania; both chambers in Wisconsin; and the Montana House and Alaska Senate, both currently tied in terms of party control.”

“Political strategists are studying their electoral maps as Republicans and Democrats vie for victory in state legislature and gubernatorial races next month that could give them huge influence over the composition of congressional districts for the next decade,” reports the Financial Times. “The winners at the state level will then have the once-in-a-decade opportunity to redraw congressional districts according to this year’s census results, to be implemented by 2012, a presidential election year. Republicans appear likely to take control of the House and are hoping for a “wave election” that would also give them the upper hand at a state level, handing them an advantage for years to come. ‘If [we] can get this right in 2010 it will have a big impact in 2012, in 2014, ’16, ’18, ’20,’ Ed Gillespie, head of the [RSLC], told National Public Radio recently.”

“A group dedicated to electing Republican state lawmakers has booked $318,150 in ad time in the backyard of Senate Majority Leader Russ Decker (D-Wausau),” reports the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. “The RSLC ads started running on Wednesday and they are scheduled through November … The RSLC has already targeted the Wisconsin Senate as one of four state legislative bodies it is counting on winning back from Democrats around the country.”

The RSLC is the only national organization whose mission is to elect down ballot state-level Republican office-holders.

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