Advance Estimates of National Income, 2015-16

Quarterly Estimates of Gross Domestic Product for the Third Quarter (Oct-Dec), 2015-16

This Press Release is embargoed against publication, telecast or circulation on internet till 5.30 pm today i.e. 8th February 2016

The Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation have released the advance estimates of national income at constant (2011-12) and current prices for the financial year 2015-16. These are presented in Statements 1-4.

2. Quarterly estimates of GDP for the third quarter October-December (Q3), 2015-16 both at constant (2011-12) and current prices along with the corresponding quarterly estimates of expenditure components of GDP are also being released. Quarterly estimates of previous years from 2011-12 onwards along with the first and second quarter estimates of 2015-16 released earlier have undergone revision in accordance with the revision policy of National Accounts. Quarterly estimates for the years 2013-14, 2014-15, and 2015-16 are presented in Statements 5 to 8.

3. GDP growth rates for 2015-16 and Q1, Q2, Q3 of 2015-16 at constant (2011-12) and current prices are given below:

Growth Rates of GDP

Constant prices (2011-12)

Current prices

Annual 2015-16 (Advance)

7.6

8.6

Q12015-16 (April-June)

7.6

8.7

Q2 2015-16 (July-Sep)

7.7

6.4

Q3 2015-16 (Oct-Dec)

7.3

9.2

IADVANCE ESTIMATES OF NATIONAL INCOME, 2015-16

4. These estimates are based on anticipated level of agricultural production from the Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare, Department of Agriculture & Cooperation (DAC), Index of Industrial Production (IIP), monthly accounts of Union Government Expenditure maintained by Controller General of Accounts (CGA) and of State Government expenditure maintained by Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG). Performance of key sectors like transport including railways, road, air and water transport etc, communication, banking and insurance have been taken into account while compiling the estimates. Performance of the corporate sector during April-December 2015 has also been taken into account while compiling advance estimates.

Estimated growth in the indicator compiled on the basis of employee expenses, profit before tax and depreciation of listed companies deflated by appropriate price indices has been used to extrapolate the corporate sector estimates of the same quarter of the previous year.

5.The salient features of these estimates are detailed below:

A.ESTIMATES AT CONSTANT (2011-12) PRICES

Gross Domestic Product

6. Real GDP or Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at constant (2011-12) prices in the year 2015-16 is likely to attain a level of `113.51 lakh crore, as against the First Revised Estimate of GDP for the year 2014-15 of `105.52 lakh crore, released on 29th January 2016. The growth in GDP during 2015-16 is estimated at 7.6 per cent as compared to the growth rate of 7.2 per cent in 2014-15.

Gross Value Added (GVA) at Basic Prices

7. Real GVA, i.e, GVA at basic constant prices (2011-12) is anticipated to increase from `97.27 lakh crore in 2014-15 to `104.38 lakh crore in 2015-16. Anticipated growth of real GVA at basic prices in 2015-16 is 7.3 per cent against 7.1 per cent in 2014-15.

8. The sectors which are likely to register growth rate of over 7.0 per cent are 'financial, real estate and professional services', ‘trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting’, and manufacturing'. The growth in the ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’, ‘mining and quarrying’, ‘electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services’, ‘construction’ and ‘public administration, defence and other services’ is estimated to be 1.1 per cent, 6.9 per cent, 5.9 per cent, 3.7 per cent and 6.9 per cent respectively.

9. Industry analysis

Agriculture

9.1. The ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ sector is likely to show a growth of 1.1 per cent in its GVA during 2015-16, as against the previous year’s growth rate of (-) 0.2 per cent. According to the information furnished by the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation (DAC), which has been used in compiling the estimate of GDP from agriculture in 2015-16, production of food grains is expected to decline by 0.5 per cent as compared to decline of 4.9 per cent in the previous agriculture year. Production of oilseeds is also expected to decline by 4.1 per cent as compared to decline of 16.0 per cent in the previous agriculture year. However, among the horticultural crops, production of fruits and vegetables is expected to increase by 0.6 per cent during the year 2015-16 as compared to 1.7 per cent in the previous agriculture year. Crops including fruits and vegetables account for about 61.0 per cent of GDP in ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ sector. Around 39.0 per cent of GVA of this sector is based on the livestock products, forestry and fisheries, which is expected to register a combined growth of above 5.0 per cent in 2015-16.

Mining and quarrying

9.2. The growth in the GVA at basic prices for 2015-16 from ‘mining and quarrying’ sector is estimated to be 6.9 per cent as compared to growth of 10.8 per cent in 2014-15. The key indicators of mining sector, namely, production of coal, crude oil and natural gas registered growth rates of 4.6 per cent, (-)0.8 per cent, (-)2.8 per cent during April-December, 2015-16 as compared to 9.5 per cent, (-)0.8 per cent and (-)4.8 per cent during April-December, 2014-15. IIP mining grew by 2.1 per cent in April-November, 2015-16 as against 2.5 per cent in April-November, 2014-15. As per the available information, private corporate sector growth in the mining sector as estimated for major listed companies at current prices was -2.8 per cent in April-December, 2015-16.

Manufacturing

9.3 The growth in the GVA at basic prices for 2015-16 from ‘manufacturing ’ sector is estimated to be 9.5 per cent as compared to growth of 5.5 per cent in 2014-15. The private corporate sector growth (which has a share of around 69 per cent in the manufacturing sector) as estimated from available data of listed companies was 9.9 per cent at current prices in April-December 2015-16. GVA from quasi corporate and unorganized segment (which has a share of around 25 per cent in the manufacturing sector) has been estimated using IIP of manufacturing. IIP for manufacturing sector registered a growth rate of 3.9 per cent during April-November, 2015-16.

Electricity, Gas, water supply and other utility services

9.4 GVA at basic prices for 2015-16 from ‘Electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services’ sector is estimated to grow by 5.9 per cent as compared to growth of 8.0 per cent in 2014-15. The key indicator of this sector, namely, IIP of Electricity registered a growth rate of 4.6 per cent during April-November, 2015-16.

Construction

9.5 GVA at basic prices for 2015-16 from ‘Construction’ sector is estimated to grow by 3.7 per cent as compared to growth of 4.4 per cent in 2014-15. Key indicators of construction sector, namely, production of cement and consumption of finished steel registered growth rates of 2.2 per cent and 4.4 per cent, respectively, during 2015-16 as compared to 7.9 per cent and 3.6 per cent respectively, in 2014-15.

9.6. GVA at basic prices for 2015-16 from this sector is estimated to grow by 9.5 per cent as compared to growth of 9.8 per cent in 2014-15. Key indicator used for estimating GVA from Trade sector is the sales tax growth. As per the available monthly data on state accounts available from CAG website, sales tax collection grew by 6.5 per cent during 2015-16. Indicator used for measuring GVA from hotels and restaurant sector is the private corporate growth in this sector. The private corporate sector growth in the hotels and restaurant sector as estimated from available data from listed companies at current prices is 26.5 per cent during April-December 2015-16. Among the other services sectors, the key indicators of railways, namely, the net tonne kilometres and passenger kilometres have shown growth rate of (-)3.0 per cent and (-)1.4 per cent respectively during April-December 2015-16. In case of other transport sectors, passengers handled by the civil aviation, cargo handled by the civil aviation and cargo handled at major ports registered growth rates of 16.5 per cent, 5.9 per cent and 3.2 per cent, respectively, during April-December 2015-16. Sales of commercial vehicles registered 8.5 per cent growth during April-December of 2015-16.

Financial, insurance, real estate and professional services

9.7 GVA at basic prices for 2015-16 from this sector is estimated to grow by 10.3 per cent as compared to growth of 10.6 per cent in 2014-15. Major component of this industry is the real estate and professional services which has a share of 71.0 per cent. The key indicators of this sector are the quarterly growth of corporate sector for real estate sector and computer related activities which as estimated from available data from listed companies at current prices are 1.0 per cent and 11.7 per cent, respectively, during April-December, 2015-16. The other indicators of this sector, viz., aggregate bank deposits, and bank credits have shown growth rates of 10.4 per cent, and 9.8 per cent, respectively as on November 2015.

Public administration and defence and other services

9.8 GVA at basic prices for 2015-16 from this sector is estimated to grow by 6.9 per cent as compared to growth of 10.7 per cent in 2014-15. The key indicator of this sector namely, union government revenue expenditure grew by 2.8 per cent during April-December 2015-16 as compared to 9.0 per cent in April-December, 2014-15.

Per Capita Income

10. The per capita income in real terms (at 2011-12 prices) during 2015-16 is likely to attain a level of `77431 as compared to `72,889 for the year 2014-15. The growth rate in per capita income is estimated at 6.2 per cent during 2015-16, as against 5.8 per cent in the previous year.

11. Price indices used as deflators

The wholesale price index (WPI), in respect of the groups - food articles, manufactured products, electricity and all commodities, has risen by 3.0 per cent, (-)1.3 per cent, 4.4 per cent and (-)3.0 per cent, respectively during April-December 2015-16. The consumer price index has shown a rise of 4.8 per cent during April-December, 2015-16.

B. ESTIMATES AT CURRENT PRICES

Gross Domestic Product

12. GDP is derived by adding taxes on products net of subsidies on products to GVA at basic prices. GDP at current prices in the year 2015-16 is likely to attain a level of `135.67 lakh crore, as against `124.88 lakh crore in 2014-15 showing a growth rate of 8.6 per cent.

National Income

13. The nominal Net National Income (NNI), also known as national income (at current prices) is likely to be`119.62 lakh crore during 2015-16, as against `110.08 lakh crore for the year 2014-15. In terms of growth rates, the national income registered a growth rate of 8.7 per cent in 2015-16 as against the previous year’s growth rate of 10.8 per cent.

Per Capita Income

14. The per capita net national income during 2015-16 is estimated to be `93,231 showing a rise of 7.3 per cent as compared to `86,879 during 2014-15 with the growth rate of 9.4 per cent.

II ANNUAL ESTIMATES OF FINAL EXPENDITURES OF GDP, 2015-16

15. Along with the Advance Estimates of GVA at basic prices by economic activity, the Advance Estimates of expenditures of the GDP at current and constant (2011-12) prices are also released. These estimates have been compiled using the data from the same sources as those used for compiling GVA estimates by economic activity, detailed data available on merchandise trade in respect of imports and exports, balance of payments, and expenditure of Central Government. As various components of expenditure on gross domestic product, namely, consumption expenditure and capital formation, are normally measured at market prices, the discussion in the following paragraphs is in terms of market prices only.

Private Final Consumption Expenditure

16. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices is estimated at `81.12 lakh crore in 2015-16 as against `71.93 lakh crore in 2014-15. At constant (2011-12) prices, the PFCE is estimated at `63.11 lakh crore in 2015-16 as against `58.64 lakh crore in 2014-15. In terms of GDP, the rates of PFCE at current and constant (2011-12) prices during 2015-16 are estimated at 59.8 per cent and 55.6 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 57.6 per cent and 55.6 per cent, respectively in 2014-15.

Government Final Consumption Expenditure

17.. Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at current prices is estimated at `14.51 lakh crore in 2015-16 as against `13.65 lakh crore in 2014-15. At constant (2011-12) prices, the GFCE is estimated at `11.39 lakh crore in 2015-16 as against `11.03 lakh crore in 2014-15. In terms of GDP, the rates of GFCE at current and constant (2011-12) prices during 2015-16 are estimated at 10.7 per cent and 10.0 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 10.9 per cent and 10.4 per cent, respectively in 2014-15.

Gross Fixed Capital Formation

18. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at current prices is estimated at `39.82 lakh crore in 2015-16 as against`38.44 lakh crore in 2014-15. At constant (2011-12) prices, the GFCF is estimated at `35.88 lakh crore in 2015-16 as against `34.08 lakh crore in 2014-15. In terms of GDP, the rates of GFCF at current and constant (2011-12) prices during 2015-16 are estimated at 29.4 per cent and 31.6 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 30.8 per cent and 32.3 per cent, respectively in 2014-15.The GFCF is expected to register growth rate of 3.6 per cent at current prices and 5.3 per cent at constant prices. The rate of expenditure on valuables at current prices is same as 1.5 per cent in 2015-16 and 2014-15.

19. Estimates of Gross/Net National Income and Per Capita Income along with GVA at basic prices by kind of economic activity and the Expenditures of GDP for the years 2013-14 and 2014-15 and 2015-16, at constant (2011-12) and current prices are given in Statements 1 to 4.

IIIQUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF GDP FOR THE THIRD QUARTER (OCTOBER-DECEMBER) OF 2015-16

(a) Estimates at constant (2011-12) prices

20. The first three quarters of a financial year are denoted by Q1, Q2 and Q3. GDP at constant (2011-12) prices in Q3 of 2015-16 is estimated at `28.52 lakh crore, as against `26.59 lakh crore in Q3 of 2014-15, showing a growth rate of 7.3 per cent. GVA at basic prices at constant (2011-12) prices in Q3 of 2015-16 is estimated at `26.41 lakh crore, as against `24.66 lakh crore in Q3 of 2014-15, showing a growth rate of 7.1 per cent.

21. Growth rates in various sectors are as follows: ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’(-1.0 per cent), ‘mining and quarrying’ (6.5 per cent), ‘manufacturing’ (12.6 per cent), ‘electricity, gas and water supply and other utility services’ (6.0 per cent) ‘construction’ (4.0 per cent), Trade, hotels, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting ' (10.1 per cent), 'financial, real estate and professional services ' (9.9 per cent), and Public administration, defence and Other Services' (7.5 per cent).

23. The estimated growth of the index of mining, manufacturing and electricity during April-December, 2015-16 are 3.5 per cent, 3.1 per cent and 4.9 per cent respectively, in Q3 of 2015-16.

24.The key indicators of railways, namely, the net tonne kilometers and passenger kilometers have shown growth rates of (-)6.9 per cent and 0.8 per cent, respectively in Q3 of 2015-16, as against the growth rates of 7.9 per cent and 1.5 per cent, in the corresponding period of previous year. In the transport and communication sectors, the sale of commercial vehicles and cargo handled at major ports, registered growth rates of 11.0 per cent and 1.4 per cent respectively in Q3 of 2015-16.

25.The PFCE and GFCF at constant (2011-12) prices in Q3 of 2015-16 are estimated at `15.92 lakh crore and `8.67 lakh crore, respectively. The rates of PFCE and GFCF as percentage of GDP in Q3 of 2015-16 is 55.8 per cent and 30.4 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 56.3 per cent and 31.7 per cent, respectively in Q3 of 2014-15. GFCE at constant (2011-12) prices in Q3 of 2015-16 is estimated at `2.74 lakh crore as against `2.62 lakh crore in Q3 of 2014-15. The rates of GFCE as percentage of GDP in Q3 of 2015-16 is 9.6 per cent as against the corresponding rate of 9.8 per cent in Q3 of 2014-15.

(b) Estimates at current prices

26. GDP at current prices in Q3 of 2015-16 is estimated at `34.81 lakh crore, as against `31.87 lakh crore in Q3 of 2014-15, showing a growth rate of 9.2 per cent. GVA at current basic prices in Q3 of 2015-16 is estimated at `31.59 lakh crore, as against `29.28 lakh crore in Q3 of 2014-15, showing a growth of 7.9 per cent.

27. The PFCE and GFCF at current prices in Q3 of 2015-16 are estimated at `20.70lakh crore and `9.69lakh crore, respectively. The rates of PFCE and GFCF at current prices as percentage of GDP in Q3 of 2015-16 are estimated at 59.5 per cent and 27.8 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 57.9 per cent and 29.9 per cent, respectively in Q3 of 2014-15. GFCE at current prices in Q3 of 2015-16 is estimated at `3.54 lakh crore as against `3.29 lakh crore in Q3 of 2014-15. The rates of GFCE as percentage of GDP in Q3 of 2015-16 is 10.2 per cent as against the corresponding rate of 10.3 per cent in Q3 of 2014-15.

28.Estimates of Gross/Net National Income and Per Capita Income along with GVA at basic prices by kind of economic activity and the Expenditures on GDP for Advance Estimates , third quarter (Q3) and April-Dec estimates for years, 2013-14, 2014-15 and 2015-16 at constant (2011-12) and current prices, are given in Statements 1 to 12.

29.The next release of quarterly GDP estimate for the quarter January-March, 2016 (Q4 of 2015-16) and provisional annual estimates for the year 2015-16 will be on 31.05.2016.