Thank You

Error.

In recent weeks, the financial press has been filled with articles about U.S. economic growth averted, thanks in part to an awful winter which slowed down the country.

And this has led to the reprieve for the bond market because long-term yields have been falling instead of rising, as had been expected. It's also led to the belief that the Federal Reserve might maintain its easy-money policies for longer than expected to help the economy.

But a compelling story Wednesday by StreetAuthority writer David Sterman points out that this Friday's jobs report, and other upcoming economic events, will jolt markets back to the reality that the economy might not be so bad off.

"Quite suddenly, the U.S. economy is shaping up to a look a lot different than when Fed Chairman Janet Yellen took the reins in February," writes Sterman. He quotes a Deutsche Bank report which says that "we expect the labor market to reach its full capacity at least one year ahead of the Fed's schedule."

StreetAuthority

Sterman writes that the Labor Department is likely to report for the fourth month in a row that at least 200,000 net new jobs were added to the economy. "Yet economists at Deutsche Bank think the forward view is more important," he adds. "They looked at a series of recent economic data points and then took a fresh look at the current 6.3% national unemployment rate. Their conclusion: Based on its current trajectory, the rate should fall significantly further over the next year and a half."

Along with falling unemployment will come rising inflation, the German bank contends.

Other big banks are similarly optimistic about the economy. Citigroup thinks that unemployment will hit 6% by the end of this year and dip toward 5.5% by year-end 2015, Sterman writes.

For investors, he adds, this all means that "the investing playbook in place since early 2009 is no longer applicable."

First, he argues, [long-term] interest rates can start to rise long before the Fed boosts its own rates. The 10-year Treasury note's rate, which is pegged off of economic sentiment and underpins many loan rates such as mortgages, will likely rise over the next six to 12 months.

"You should watch how the 10-year Treasury note responds to Friday's employment report to gauge the bond market's view of economic growth. If rates start to move higher in coming days and weeks, it could signal the start of a longer uptrend, which puts pressure on any yield-producing stocks," he writes.

Indeed, if the economy shakes off the bad winter and begins to perform like Wall Street economists have long expected it would, gold may end up being a casualty, writes money manager and financial blogger Barry Ritholtz.

In a column for Bloomberg View, Ritholtz states the five reasons why gold, which peaked in 2011 and has been in bear-market territory since then, will continue to be a bad investment.

Bloomberg View

Among the forces that will conspire against gold, writes Ritholtz: economic stability, a strong U.S. dollar, tempered geopolitical skirmishes, and finally, no equity crash.

"The bottom line seems to be that all of the factors that led to the huge rally in gold from 2001-2011 are no longer present," concludes Ritholtz. "The year isn't yet half over and gold still could stage a comeback. But with each passing day, it looks more and more like the bull market in gold that began more than a decade ago is over."

I'll close with a reference to a New York Times column by Park City, Utah-based financial planner Carl Richards. The piece warns readers not to forget about market risks even in times when volatility is low and the mood is calm.

"I'm reminded of Nassim Taleb's story about the turkey in his book, 'The Black Swan,'" Richards writes. "For a turkey, life seems pretty good. Like clockwork, a kind man comes by every day to feed him. But then one day, instead of food, the kind man has an ax. Surprise!

"I'm not predicting that we're in for another series of events like in 2009," he writes, referring to the financial collapse. "But I am suggesting that now would be a good time to stick with a disciplined approach to our finances. It means doing simple things like staying diversified and rebalancing, even though it's not cool. It means being conservative in our spending and taking on as little debt as possible. And it means remembering that at some point, risk will return."

This sound advice should help keep an investor calm even when the market's calm ends.