New contest: Pick one big tipping point

You decide: which of 20 triggers will end 'aging bull'

ARROYO GRANDE, Calif. (MarketWatch) -- America's aging five-year bull reminds me of a classic "Seinfeld" episode: Ditzy Elaine's trying to figure out how to impress Testikov, a Russian author she has to entertain for her literary agency. A straight-faced Jerry gives his ever-gullible friend a little advice:

Tell him that she heard Tolstoy's original title for "War and Peace" was "War, What Is It Good For?" She's skeptical. Seriously, says Jerry, his mistress didn't like the original, so he changed it. Elaine falls for it. Later, in a limo, Testikov goes berserk when she passes along this bizarre story.

Folks, that's the "Law of Unintended Consequences" at work. Pentagon generals call it "Blowback." The Irish know it as "Murphy's Law." If anything can go wrong, it will. The future's unpredictable. Best-laid plans can screw up. The law baffles humans, but it works. Sometimes it's comic, like the consequences triggered by Jerry's innocent joke.

Sometimes it's tragicomic, like Congress' agri-subsidies for corn farmers, designed to encourage ethanol production and make America energy-independent. Guess what: Subsidies drove up corn prices so high pigs and cattle are eating cheaper stuff, like trail mix, cheese curls and candy bars. Seriously. Now both gas and meat prices are rising, as Congress debates an wasteful new $260 billion farm-subsidy bill. Meanwhile, Detroit's still pushing gas-guzzlers while lobbying against higher mileage standards.

Pick that one tipping point pushing us over edge

War, what is it good for? And how good are you at predicting big turning points? Remember how the assassination of a little-known Archduke triggered the First World War? Can you predict the Archduke "event" or Seinfeld "moment" that pushes America over the edge and into a recession and bear market? Well, can you? After all, five years is a long bull market.

Today, with unpredictable threats and conflicts increasing worldwide and at home, our Washington "leaders" continue yapping like schoolyard bullies posturing for control of the sandbox. You can't help but feel the endless absurd farce between Congress and the White House is proof that our "leaders" are just creating Murphy's Law scenarios, fiddling while Rome burns.

The past two years we asked readers for help identifying the triggers. Why? We do this for one crucial reason: Today the brain of the American investor (as well as Wall Street power-players and corporate CEOs) has become so narrow, capable of only thinking short-term, that occasionally we all need to step back and look at the bigger picture instead of focusing myopically on the two-minute tape, tomorrow's opening, quarterly earnings or year-end bonuses.

So here's the new contest: Pick the No. 1tipping point that'll push us over the edge, into a recession and bear market. Yes, it'll probably be some combo of multiple triggers, a perfect storm ... but tell us, which one single "Archduke moment" or "Seinfeld event" do you think will be the final ultimate detonator triggering a chain reaction of unintended consequences:

1. War/military defense budget busting

The tab on the Iraq and Afghanistan wars is now over $600 billion, with long-term estimates exceeding $2 trillion. Now many neocons openly predict the president will invade Iran before the next elections. WWIII will be the new "unintended consequence."

19. International credibility deficit

20. Washington politics in endless gridlock

Which is more childish: Republicans vs. Democrats? Or Lindsay, Britney and Paris? At least the Hollywood trio can't set up a global meltdown, like our do-nothing leaders.

Folks, with so many tipping points, we have the makings of a perfect storm. But in our new poll, please go beyond the short-term. Please tell us: (1) When do you predict it will happen? And (2) Which of these "moments" or "events" will push America over the edge and into a recession and bear? Later we'll summarize the results ... and offer strategies.

Paul
B. Farrell

Paul B. Farrell is a MarketWatch columnist based in San Luis Obispo, Calif. Follow him on Twitter @MKTWFarrell.

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