and next week is earnings, which people are betting will not be fun. S$P has been at this number what, in 1998? So are we looking at a buy opportunity in about a month when things settle down? Or is this the End of Days? Build a bunker? :P

I have about 20k in MM (which is big for me) I'm thinking of moving into the market....maybe I'll just wait!

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Right about the market going south in year after election. If you insist on market timing, jump back in... in October. At least my market guru advised this to me this a.m. I ignore his counsel, but pass it along for what it's worth. Who knows, he could be right.

Yeah Laurence, but ELN is at least doing better this week...see, if you had 'doubled down' you'd be making some money.

I should at this time point out that six months ago I called this downturn. 8)

According to my best guesses and many ridiculously unrelated sources of information, it will continue until late July or early August, firm up, and we'll see some upside movement by October.

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Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.

Yup, and I predicted at the same time that no matter what happens, someone will come out of the woodwork and tell us that they predicted it!

This prediction is the only one sure to be right.

Cut-Throat, in another thread you mentioned that crashes only occur after bubbles. I don't wish to disagree with you, but I think that may depend on one's definition of a crash. I believe the behavior of the Nikkei since 1980 may give a contra-example. A bubble burst in 1990 close to 40,000. It bottomed in 1992 around 15,000 (I can't give exact numbers because I am looking at a Yahoo Chart.) That was followed by an 8 year trading range between about 14,000 and 22,000. Then in 2000 there was another abrupt fall from 20,000 to 7600- a fall of 62%. In my book, whether this is a crash or not, it is sure meaningful to an investor. And it came out of what I would call a trading range. The range was more volatile than the recent DJI range, but I am not sure what that might or might not mean.

Mikey

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"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams

Cut-Throat, in another thread you mentioned that crashes only occur after bubbles. I don't wish to disagree with you, but I think that may depend on one's definition of a crash. *I believe the behavior of the Nikkei since 1980 may give a contra-example. A bubble burst in 1990 close to 40,000. It bottomed in 1992 around 15,000 (I can't give exact numbers because I am looking at a Yahoo Chart.) That was followed by an 8 year trading range between about 14,000 and 22,000. Then in 2000 there was another abrupt fall from 20,000 to 7600- a fall of 62%. In my book, whether this is a crash or not, it is sure meaningful to an investor. And it came out of what I would call a trading range. The range was more volatile than the recent DJI range, but I am not sure what that might or might not mean.

Mikey

Mikey,

This certainly may be true of the Japanese Market, which I know nothing about.

I was only pondering the U.S. Market. And it seems that major corrections (30% or more) happened shortly after bubbles and not after a 4-5 year plateau that we have been in.

But who knows This time could be different And then there will be those that remind us that they predicted it!

It looks very similar to 2004, where nothing (slow downtrend) happened all year and then Oct-Dec market(s) jumped 10%+.

I am in for the long term. What I do not like about this drop is that nothing seems to counter the drops even when looking at a well diversified portfolio. Energy have done well but everything else have dropped in tandem.

I'd rather buy when stocks are on sale than when they are at a premium.
A downturn in the market is not a bad thing for those who have a long term view. This applies, IMHO, to those in 50's and 60's as well as those in their 20's. I just happen to know a few people in their 80's who think the same way-- I love optimists!
That being said, I have no idea which way the market is going Monday, next week, next month; therefore, DCA.

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