Today Weather

Partly cloudy. Areas of morning frost and patchy fog. Slight chance of a shower about the Blue Mountains this evening Light winds. Daytime maximum temperatures between 11 and 16.

Tomorrow

4°

Min

10°

Max

Mostly sunny. Areas of morning fog. Slight chance of a shower about the Blue Mountains. Areas of morning frost in the south. Light winds. Overnight temperatures falling to between zero and 5 with daytime temperatures reaching between 11 and 16.

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and South America.

Summary:

Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 13 June to 17 June, 26 June to 30 June, and 5 July to 9 July. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 23 June to 27 June.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 12 June to 16 June, 26 June to 30 June, and 2 July to 6 July.

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

12 Month Rainfall Forecast

Ilford Rain Forecast

Ilford 12-month Rainfall Forecast

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

2020

2021

3

7

7

7

6

6

7

10

7

6

4

4

10

5

0

1

2 - 3

4 - 7

8 - 9

10

Well below normal

Below normal

Near normal

Above normal

Well above normal

Issue Notes - Issued May 13

ENSO status: Neutral
IOD status: Neutral
SAM status: Trending neutral
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific remained stable throughout April with the Nino3.4 index registering a value of 0.5. On the other hand, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -0.5 during the same month.
The current outlook suggests slightly warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean during the end of autumn and early winter, potentially cooling by the second half of the austral winter. Eight out of eight international models continue to suggest a cooling trend of the NINO3.4 region throughout the Austral winter, with all models on the cooler side of neutral by September. The current International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) suggests a 40:35 chance for neutral:La Nina conditions by the Austral spring.
To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral, normal for this time of the year. All six main international models, however, continue to hint at a possible negative IOD establishing from mid-to-late winter.
In terms of precipitation across Australia, the current medium term outlook continues to favour above average rainfall for most of the country. This outlook is mainly driven by warmer SSTs across northwestern Australia, enhanced soil moisture across some parts of the continent and early indications of a cool phase in the Pacific Ocean, which increases the moisture content across the northern tropics.
Across parts of southern Vic, NSW and Qld (east of the Great Dividing Range), southwestern WA and Tasmania the outlook is for average-to-slightly below average rainfall over the coming months as these regions transition to their â€˜drierâ€™ part of the year (eastern seaboard) or tend to be less influenced by the IOD (SW WA and Tasmania) but more on the phases of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). This doesnâ€™t include any severe weather events like east coast lows.

Issue Notes

The hemispheric long wave pattern has remained stable in recent weeks. There are six main troughs. Currently the most significant troughs are near the longitudes of South Africa, the Indian Ocean, Western Australia, the south Pacific, the southeast Pacific, and South America.

Summary:

Over southern and eastern Australia the cold front events with potential to bring widespread rain are now expected about 13 June to 17 June, 26 June to 30 June, and 5 July to 9 July. Rain events originating in the tropics and moving south are possible about 23 June to 27 June.
Over Western Australia the strongest cold fronts should occur about 12 June to 16 June, 26 June to 30 June, and 2 July to 6 July.

Forecast Explanation

This forecast is produced by a multi-model ensemble consisting of dynamical atmospheric models, which are forced by the latest observed atmosphere, ocean, land and ice conditions. The models are designed to simulate features of the real atmosphere, including the daily movement of long and short wave patterns in the Southern Hemisphere.

The future probability of rain in each district is estimated using output from the multi-model ensemble, combined with historical information about the difference between the model forecasts and observed rainfall.

In this deterministic framework the skill of the forecast tends to decrease with time, however the forecasts are updated daily to provide the latest estimates of rainfall probability out to 28 days.

Ilford Rain Forecast

Ilford 12-month Rainfall Forecast

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

2020

2021

3

7

7

7

6

6

7

10

7

6

4

4

10

5

0

1

2 - 3

4 - 7

8 - 9

10

Well below normal

Below normal

Near normal

Above normal

Well above normal

Issue Notes - Issued May 13

ENSO status: Neutral
IOD status: Neutral
SAM status: Trending neutral
Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial central Pacific remained stable throughout April with the Nino3.4 index registering a value of 0.5. On the other hand, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) recorded a value of -0.5 during the same month.
The current outlook suggests slightly warmer than average SSTs will persist across the equatorial Pacific Ocean during the end of autumn and early winter, potentially cooling by the second half of the austral winter. Eight out of eight international models continue to suggest a cooling trend of the NINO3.4 region throughout the Austral winter, with all models on the cooler side of neutral by September. The current International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) suggests a 40:35 chance for neutral:La Nina conditions by the Austral spring.
To the west of Australia, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral, normal for this time of the year. All six main international models, however, continue to hint at a possible negative IOD establishing from mid-to-late winter.
In terms of precipitation across Australia, the current medium term outlook continues to favour above average rainfall for most of the country. This outlook is mainly driven by warmer SSTs across northwestern Australia, enhanced soil moisture across some parts of the continent and early indications of a cool phase in the Pacific Ocean, which increases the moisture content across the northern tropics.
Across parts of southern Vic, NSW and Qld (east of the Great Dividing Range), southwestern WA and Tasmania the outlook is for average-to-slightly below average rainfall over the coming months as these regions transition to their â€˜drierâ€™ part of the year (eastern seaboard) or tend to be less influenced by the IOD (SW WA and Tasmania) but more on the phases of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). This doesnâ€™t include any severe weather events like east coast lows.