Not that I would vote that way, but the option should be there for completeness. I think bitcoins will hit $100 within 1 month to two years, and silver will hit $100 somewhere between three and ten years.

There are 40k times as many ounces of silver above ground now as there will ever be bitcoins.

Nah, as for the facts, there is quite exactly 1000 ounces of silver above ground per 1 bitcoin, of which about 10% is identified. Most of the supply is hidden and not tradable, as with bitcoin.

As you say yourself, much of the supply is hidden. My source says 840 billion ounces, yours apparently says 21 billion ounces. Either way, there is dramatically more silver than bitcoin, plus way more uncertainty regarding the actual amount of silver already mined. With bitcoin, we can calculate an exact number at any point.

I did some research a while back and came up with 25 billion oz silver existing above-ground (not just investment silver).

How do you come up with 840 billion ounces? Does that somehow include "minable silver" or something?

I honestly don't remember, which is why I didn't include a link above. I read it somewhere and now I can't find it. Thanks for providing support for rpietilas figure. It is probably more accurate, although my points remain valid even with only 1000 times as many silver ounces as bitcoins.

There are 40k times as many ounces of silver above ground now as there will ever be bitcoins.

Nah, as for the facts, there is quite exactly 1000 ounces of silver above ground per 1 bitcoin, of which about 10% is identified. Most of the supply is hidden and not tradable, as with bitcoin.

As you say yourself, much of the supply is hidden. My source says 840 billion ounces, yours apparently says 21 billion ounces. Either way, there is dramatically more silver than bitcoin, plus way more uncertainty regarding the actual amount of silver already mined. With bitcoin, we can calculate an exact number at any point.

I did some research a while back and came up with 25 billion oz silver existing above-ground (not just investment silver).

How do you come up with 840 billion ounces? Does that somehow include "minable silver" or something?

I honestly don't remember, which is why I didn't include a link above. I read it somewhere and now I can't find it. Thanks for providing support for rpietilas figure. It is probably more accurate, although my points remain valid even with only 1000 times as many silver ounces as bitcoins.

Well, this illustrates the point that has been made before (and many times here, of course): knowing the supply of the commodity to be used as a money is relevant and important. Bitcoin wins on this one.

There are 40k times as many ounces of silver above ground now as there will ever be bitcoins. BTC is much easier to move up and harder to naked short sell since delivery is so easy to demand.

Silver has no chance.

Like it, very persuasive argument..

Yeah but I can't just discover/make up a new atom with a limited supply and call it "Blyther". But there could one day be 40k crypto-coins, each originally inspired by Bitcoin. This is one thing that is bound to keep deterring sceptics... until Bitcoin users start getting it and presenting the FOSS idea properly.

Although I still see this as positive, in the next few years there could be 10 new "in-game coins" inspired by Bitcoin, 50 large corporations using private versions of Bitcoin for their supply chain, 100 different company stock schemes that are impossible to "naked short" thanks to Bitcoin technology... And if they're each as big as Bitcoin itself, that's utterly massive growth of 160 times, yet actual Bitcoin users see no increase in price! Given that most Bitcoin users seem to be speculating that they'll get rich easily due to seigniorage because everyone will want to buy-in... I'll have no sympathy if it doesn't work out that way.

There are already quite a few bitcoin clones around, I think one will probably always dominate though. Unless bitcoin encounters unsolvable unforseen problems its in pole position just now and will continue until something better replaces it. I think it might be a bit like social networks, myspace dominated, then bebo, no-one uses them anymore its all facebook. Perhaps the same will happen with crypto currency ? There will be many attempts to replace it with something easier to centrally control. I can only hope those attempts meet abject failure.

Although I still see this as positive, in the next few years there could be 10 new "in-game coins" inspired by Bitcoin, 50 large corporations using private versions of Bitcoin for their supply chain, 100 different company stock schemes that are impossible to "naked short" thanks to Bitcoin technology... And if they're each as big as Bitcoin itself, that's utterly massive growth of 160 times, yet actual Bitcoin users see no increase in price! Given that most Bitcoin users seem to be speculating that they'll get rich easily due to seigniorage because everyone will want to buy-in... I'll have no sympathy if it doesn't work out that way.

NOT !!! :-) If FED or ECB (or any large company group or corporation) will create their e-money(lite,nova,..x, ... 10 new "in-game coins" ) then NO ONE will have quality witch Bitcoin has ... NO CENTRAL AUTHORITIES. :-)

Not that I would vote that way, but the option should be there for completeness. I think bitcoins will hit $100 within 1 month to two years, and silver will hit $100 somewhere between three and ten years.

In my opinion the poll is valid. Both are certain to go past $100 the only question is which first. The USD and all fiat currencies are turning into toilet paper thanks to central bankers.

edit - although this is definately a home win for bitcoins. wonder what a similar poll would show on a metals forum. Theres a lot of anti-bitcoin sentiment on tfmetalsreport for example.

I did some research a while back and came up with 25 billion oz silver existing above-ground (not just investment silver).

How do you come up with 840 billion ounces? Does that somehow include "minable silver" or something?

I honestly don't remember, which is why I didn't include a link above. I read it somewhere and now I can't find it. Thanks for providing support for rpietilas figure. It is probably more accurate, although my points remain valid even with only 1000 times as many silver ounces as bitcoins.

I have written a book about it, in Finnish though. The mined supply is 45-50 Boz, of which about half has been consumed practically irrevocably (since recycling is an order of magnitude more expensive than mining more from the ground, this supply will not be tapped). This leaves about 20-25 Boz of silver, of which only about 2 Boz can be identified. Most of this is in the form of U.S. pre-1964 coins, the other large forms being Good Delivery bars, and 1oz investment silver coins. The amount of physical investment silver that physically changes hands annually, is minuscule, perhaps as small as 200 million ounces.

My company, Silvervault, warehouses about 1/20000 of all investment silver in the world, and funnily enough, owns more than that percentage of all the bitcoins.

Not that I would vote that way, but the option should be there for completeness. I think bitcoins will hit $100 within 1 month to two years, and silver will hit $100 somewhere between three and ten years.

In my opinion the poll is valid. Both are certain to go past $100 the only question is which first. The USD and all fiat currencies are turning into toilet paper thanks to central bankers.

edit - although this is definately a home win for bitcoins. wonder what a similar poll would show on a metals forum. Theres a lot of anti-bitcoin sentiment on tfmetalsreport for example.

Conceivable it would be possible for the US to stop printing money, stop spending money they don't have, thus turning around their financial situation and strengthing the USD to the extent that silver never hits $100. Hah, it was hard for me to write that with a straight face. The US has a policy of trying to keep inflation around 3-4% per year, so unless the policy makers are all thrown out and replaced with anti-inflationists, silver and bitcoin will inevitably hit that $100 mark.

Not that I would vote that way, but the option should be there for completeness. I think bitcoins will hit $100 within 1 month to two years, and silver will hit $100 somewhere between three and ten years.

In my opinion the poll is valid. Both are certain to go past $100 the only question is which first. The USD and all fiat currencies are turning into toilet paper thanks to central bankers.

edit - although this is definately a home win for bitcoins. wonder what a similar poll would show on a metals forum. Theres a lot of anti-bitcoin sentiment on tfmetalsreport for example.

Conceivable it would be possible for the US to stop printing money, stop spending money they don't have, thus turning around their financial situation and strengthing the USD to the extent that silver never hits $100. Hah, it was hard for me to write that with a straight face. The US has a policy of trying to keep inflation around 3-4% per year, so unless the policy makers are all thrown out and replaced with anti-inflationists, silver and bitcoin will inevitably hit that $100 mark.

I think we're on the same page really. Technically they could strengthen the dollar to the point where it no longer devalues, however that would be unique amongst unbacked fiat currencies or i suppose they could create a new dollar backed by gold or something..