In Iowa, a Counterintuitive Gender Gap

Republican U.S. Senate candidate Joni Ernst leaves the polling station after casting her ballot in Iowa’s Republican primary on June 3.

Associated Press

A new poll in Iowa’s hot U.S. Senate race finds that voters’ party identification might be playing a larger role than gender in their decision making, at least at this point in the race.

The Quinnipiac poll out Wednesday found Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley leading Republican state Sen. Joni Ernst 44% to 40%. Ms. Ernst, who won a five-way GOP primary, would be the state’s first female U.S. senator.

But the data compiled by the poll contained this counterintuitive point:

Mr. Braley is carrying female voters 47% to 36%, while Ms. Ernst is ahead among men, 44% to 40%.

Mr. Braley is drawing 89% of the Democratic vote, compared with Ms. Ernst pulling in 79% among Republicans.

The explanation is that women lean Democratic a bit, while men are inclined toward Republicans. In this case, voters’ party affiliation appears to be more important to their candidate preference than is gender identification.

A third of voters say that with five months to go, they don’t know enough about either candidate to have an opinion about them, so the campaign will be instrumental in the general election outcome. But it would be unusual for a female candidate in a close race to lose female voters by double digits and still win the election.

Iowans watched a ton of Ernst TV ads in the primary stressing the candidate’s military background, conservative bona-fides and marksmanship. In the coming months, they can probably expect a new raft of commercials accentuating her softer side.

About Washington Wire

Washington Wire is one of the oldest standing features in American journalism. Since the Wire launched on Sept. 20, 1940, the Journal has offered readers an informal look at the capital. Now online, the Wire provides a succession of glimpses at what’s happening behind hot stories and warnings of what to watch for in the days ahead. The Wire is led by Reid J. Epstein, with contributions from the rest of the bureau. Washington Wire now also includes Think Tank, our home for outside analysis from policy and political thinkers.