04 May 2010

At long last Gordon Brown finds his voice and makes a passionate speech. Unfortunately for him, and the Labour party, one swallow doesn't make a summer. You can't fatten the calf on market day.

All the usual ingredients are there for the final hours of the campaign: the frantic travel to the marginal seats that matter; and the scare mongering. Meanwhile, two Cabinet minsters have urged Labour supporters to vote tactically to keep the Tories out. It's desperate stuff that adds to the lacklustre way the party's clattering train has travelled over the past few weeks. Then, up pops Tony Blair at a garden party in Jacqui Smith's marginal seat. Is this the most effective way to use Labour's most successful leader?

Who knows what the 46 million voters are really thinking. Will there be regional variations when the votes are counted? How will the expenses scandal play out in individual seats? The voters want change, but will they move in a decisive way in David Cameron's direction? What impact will the minor parties have?

In the crucial hours hours before election day, the polls lag behind as the electorate finally make their minds up. They reflect a snapshot in time, and will not detect any last minute changes as the voters march to the polling stations.

At the end of the day, Labour has to hope that its vote holds up and tactical voting denies the Tories enough seats to form a minority government.

Until the fog clears early on Friday morning, there is little point in further speculation. The only certainty at the present time is that this will be the last first-past-the-post-election, which will have major implications for the Tory party and David Cameron, if he becomes Prime Minister.