Thursday, August 10, 2017

China MOA S&D August 2017

There were few changes in supply and demand estimates by China's Ministry of Agriculture in August with harvests for major crops about to begin in coming months.

The 2016/17 estimate of corn imports was raised by 200,000 mt to 1 million metric tons. According to MOA, the corn auctioned from reserves has not met demands of processors, so some switched to imports. As of yesterday's auctions, 40 mmt of corn had been auctioned from China's reserves since May. However, the MOA balance sheet estimates that the supply of corn for 2016/17 will still exceed consumption by 9.7 mmt.

MOA revised its estimate of 2017/18 corn yields downward due to pest problems in certain areas--although the yield is still historically high. Corn production for 2017/18 will fall to 210.7 mmt, and consumption will exceed supply by 3.17 mmt in the coming market year, according to the MOA estimates.

China
corn supply and demand (Ministry of Ag, August 2017)

Item

Unit

2016/17 July

2016/17 August

2017/18 July

2017/18 August

Planted area

1000 ha

36,760

36,760

35,496

35,496

Harvested area

1000 ha

36,760

36,760

35,496

35,496

Yield

Kg/ha

5,973

5,973

5,970

5,936

Production

MMT

219.57

219.57

211.91

210.7

Imports

MMT

0.8

1

1

1

Consumption

MMT

210.72

210.72

214.57

214.57

--Food

MMT

7.82

7.82

7.89

7.89

--Feed

MMT

133.03

133.03

135.03

135.03

--Industrial use

MMT

58.25

58.25

60.25

60.25

--Seed

MMT

1.61

1.61

1.57

1.57

--Loss and other

MMT

10.01

10.01

9.83

9.83

Exports

MMT

0.15

0.15

0.3

0.3

Surplus

MMT

9.50

9.70

-1.96

-3.17

MOA made no changes in the soybean S&D.

China
soybean supply and demand (Ministry of Ag, August 2017)

Item

Unit

2016/17 July

2016/17 August

2017/18 July

2017/18 August

Planted area

1000 ha

7,208

7,208

8,196

8,196

Harvested area

1000 ha

7,202

7,202

8,196

8,196

Yield

Kg/ha

1796

1796

1797

1797

Production

MMT

12.94

12.94

14.73

14.73

Imports

MMT

91.55

91.55

93.16

93.16

Consumption

MMT

106.16

106.16

108.63

108.63

--Crushing

MMT

91.09

91.09

92.50

92.50

--Food

MMT

11.18

11.18

12.04

12.04

--Seed

MMT

0.64

0.64

0.64

0.64

Loss and other

MMT

3.25

3.25

3.45

3.45

Exports

MMT

0.13

0.13

0.22

0.22

Surplus

MMT

-1.81

-1.81

-0.97

-0.97

Chinese authorities have sold off 2.15 mmt of their cotton reserves as of August 4. MOA adjusted 2016/17 cotton consumption up by 100,000 to reflect the success in selling cotton into the market. Estimated cotton imports were raised to 1.05 mmt. The 2016/17 ending inventory was adjusted downward by only 40,000 mt to 9.09 mmt.

Estimated cotton output for 2017/18 was adjusted upward to 5.28 mmt on both increased area and higher yield. Imports will be only 1 mmt, and consumption will exceed supply. The ending inventory will fall further to 7.46 mmt in 2017/18.

China
cotton supply and demand (Ministry of Ag, August 2017)

Item

Unit

2016/17 July

2016/17 August

2017/18 July

2017/18 August

Begin inventory

MMT

11.11

11.11

9.13

9.09

Planted area

1000 ha

3,100

3,100

3,200

3,293

Yield

Kg/ha

1,555

1,555

1,594

1,602

Production

MMT

4.82

4.82

5.10

5.28

Imports

MMT

1.00

1.05

1.00

1.00

Consumption

MMT

7.79

7.89

7.74

7.9

Exports

MMT

0.01

0.01

0.01

0.01

End Inventory

MMT

9.13

9.09

7.49

7.46

MOA raised its estimate of 2016/17 soybean oil imports to accommodate increased demand from a growing stream of rural-urban migrants discovered by the National Bureau of Statistics in its report on economic growth for the first half of 2017. Exports of edible oils were raised due to increases in sales of specialty oil products.