Friday, February 24, 2017

Before any important English by-election, I always try to work out which result would be best for us from a strategic point of view. ("Strategic" isn't really the right word for something we have no control over, but you know what I mean.) There are often arguments pointing in more than one direction, but for yesterday's double-header in Copeland and Stoke I had come to the firm conclusion that the most desirable outcome would be two Labour wins, and that Copeland was the more important of the two contests. This was my reasoning...

* A win for the Tories in Copeland would reverse the cut in their slender majority they suffered at Richmond Park, and thus lessen the SNP's bargaining power in the Commons. It would also reduce the chances of the majority being completely wiped out (or very substantially reduced) before 2020.

* Although a win for UKIP in Stoke would not officially increase the government majority, it would probably slightly weaken the chances of the government suffering defeats on the floor of the Commons, because ad hoc anti-government coalitions are harder to cobble together if UKIP are an indispensable part of them.

* It shouldn't have to be this way, but the SNP, UKIP and the Lib Dems are locked in a dogfight for recognition as the most important third party in the eyes of the London media. Getting their leader into parliament would be a coup for UKIP and might weaken the SNP's hand somewhat.

* Whether it's because Jeremy Corbyn is genuinely a poor leader, or whether it's because Labour MPs and Labour-friendly commentators have made it impossible for him to lead the party effectively, there can't be much doubt that he has become an asset for the SNP and the wider independence movement, and that it would now be desirable for him to remain in harness for as long as humanly possible. Defeat for Labour in one or both by-elections might hasten his departure date, and would therefore be a bad thing.

So taking all of those factors into consideration, what actually happened yesterday was grim news, although it could have been even worse if Stoke had fallen to UKIP. The other consolation is that the slight strengthening of the government majority may make a snap general election prior to 2020 less likely. A working Tory majority of 16 is not a great situation to find ourselves in, and it offers only limited opportunities for the SNP to hold the balance of power on individual issues. But it's a hell of a lot better than a majority of 200 - which is the sort of disaster we'd be looking at if there was an election any time soon.

* * *

If you've enjoyed my writing in recent months and feel a strange inexplicable urge to 'buy me a hot chocolate', bear in mind that my fundraiser from two years ago is still open for additional donations - it can be found HERE.

41 comments:

I hope Labour supporters in Scotland read the runes.The by-election results in England this morning are another sign that England is moving further to the right politically. Brexit negotiations will, with help from the rabid English nationalist media, see England reach new levels of xenophobic nationalism. Britnats in Scotland will endeavour to tie Scotland to England’s descent into the political mire.

I am confident that most people in Scotland will recognize England’s descent and do everything in their power to save Scotland from a similar fate.

You do not need tae tell yer porkies Nat si. Scotland has a right wing government and you know it. Thatcherite policies still the core of the fash nationalists.It is like voting Blair and pretending it is socialism.

four out of Scotland’s six party leaders (the Conservatives’ Ruth Davidson, Ukip’s David Coburn and the Greens’ Patrick Harvie) are lesbian, gay or bisexual, making Holyrood, as she put it in a recent newspaper column, “the gayest parliament in the world”. Last year, the Rainbow Europe Index identified Scotland as the best country in Europe when it came to legal protections for LGB people , fash nat sis jocko thickos keep voting for right wing tory snp

I am the Gayest person you could meet but do not take the bobbie up the erse.It is not Unusual for a man and woman to shag and have weans. Could this be banned by Kezia the Dug and the Jock Fash. Nae Shagging just wankin intae a tube and hivvin wee perfect Jock Nazis.

I felt genuine disappointment for Corbyn. But I also took it as a down payment on 'eternal Tory government' a prospect which surely must be a positive factor toward securing our independence in due course.

The Tories will secure Tory policies in Scotland implemented by the Nat sis and this will secure the Union.Do you Nat si camp followers actually believe the Nat si elite want independence.They are coining in the dosh from the Union and taking the piss out of you mugs.

What absolute pish you spout. Hopefully you will be leaving Scotland after independence and move down to ingerland and you can wallow in the true nazi ideals that the Conservatives will be inflicting on their people post brexit. You do realise that nazis are to the right of the political spectrum. (a spectrum is not what you use for playing the guitar)

Just ignore the IDIOT it doesn't have the balls to say who it really is all he does id spout absolute nonsense it must be Kezia in disguise. It's party is doing well right enough it is too busy spouting poison against the SNP and Yes movement in General that the Party he claims to support is sliding to oblivion. What a Muppet it is!

The splendid Mr Farage and his bunch of Merry men have done a wonderful job defending englands working class and our childrens future, they will lose nothing when the fascist euro state disintegrates as they will all receive their just reward in the house of lords. You jocko fash nat sis dont have what it takes to be proper englishmen.No surrender WATP GSTQ

“Many Australian firms have accessed the EU via Britain. With the uncertainty surrounding what a post-Brexit Britain will look like, I believe Australian firms will look to Ireland to fulfil that role,”

“Ireland is superbly positioned to attract that kind of engagement from Australian business. I see this as a great opportunity of how we, Australia and Ireland, can take advantage of what has occurred in Brexit."

No English roads and no chanel tunnel. Very expensive shipping is. Would Scotland subsidise Stena and P&O to travel to Dublin Port! Looks like Scotland could be in shit street and moreso if the Nat sis continue with their anti Trump crap.

Fine, just ship them avoiding English and Welsh roads. You must be an expert in logistics! So Scotland can circumnavigate English roads to do direct trade to the EU at a profit? Would that be from the Port of Leith?

We were talking about Ireland here but yes there are several ports in use in Scotland and also a very large one in use in England.

However, to add to this Scotland/Ireland/the UK, make most of their money exporting non-tangible goods. Examples of these would be banking services, legal services and intellectual property. You don't need roads for that, you need an attractive trade deal. Hence why Australian firms are looking to Ireland.

Anarchists believe in the inherent dignity and humanity of the individual. But this dignity and humanity can only be fully realised in a co-operative, egalitarian society. This is why we are in favour of working together collectively and being organised. It is incorrect to equate anarchism with individualism or chaos.