‘Open defiance of Theresa May might once have merited a slapdown, now it seems to have been indulged.’
Photograph: Ben Stansall/AFP/Getty Images

It is an immigration white paper that lays bare Theresa May’s weakness as a prime minister. The chancellor, Philip Hammond, and his supporters in cabinet led a revolt and have, for now, neutralised its central measure: a proposed ban on almost all future immigration for those earning below £30,000.

Meanwhile, the home secretary refused to repeat the wording of May’s flagship target: to reduce annual net migration to the “tens of thousands”. Such open defiance might have once merited a slapdown, now it seems to have been indulged.

A reading of the document sets out clearly how May has been set back, after a series of rows that have been leaked in unseemly detail in recent days. Over the weekend, friendly newspapers such as the Sun were being told unambiguously that the earnings threshold would be £30,000, but the briefers spoke too soon.

There is, instead, to be a 12-month consultation period on the salary threshold after a high-stakes cabinet battle on Tuesday afternoon during which Hammond demanded that it be reduced to £21,000. The argument ran on so long it threatened to delay the publication of the white paper.

Hammond is not always the most popular person around the cabinet table, but another member claimed that everybody supported him behind the scenes in this case. Downing Street did its best to put a brave face on the row, suggesting the £30,000 threshold was not the prime minister’s idea.

That may have been true technically – it was the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) that recommended a minimum salary threshold of £30,000 – but Downing Street was happy to embrace it.

The key passage in the white paper refers to the £30,000 figure but is non-committal about the threshold that will actually be used. “The MAC recommended retaining the minimum salary threshold, and we will engage businesses and employers as to what salary threshold should be set,” it says.

The consultation exercise could run on longer than May is prime minister, and it will be subject to intense lobbying by businesses and other other organisations which have already called the £30,000 cap “ignorant and elitist”.

The post-Brexit immigration plans at a glance

Read more

Similar observations can be made about the headline migration target that gets stuck in Javid’s mouth. The Conservative party’s 2017 election manifesto said: “It is our objective to reduce immigration to sustainable levels, by which we mean annual net migration in the tens of thousands.” May repeated her commitment to it at prime minister’s questions on Wednesday.

The target has never been met – never come close to being met – and it has been clear for some time that Javid regards it as an albatross around his neck. Annual net migration currently stands at 273,000 and has been in the hundreds of thousands for the past two decades. On Wednesday, Javid would only commit himself to reducing it to “a level where it is sustainable”, whatever that may mean.

The white paper has its own heroic compromise on this point, referring to “sustainable levels as set out in the Conservative party manifesto”. That shows it is a target that the home secretary does not want to honour even in the breach – and that, like the chancellor, he is able to take on the prime minister and win.

May was the longest-serving home secretary of modern times, but despite her expertise and formidable grasp of detail on the subject, she cannot carry key ministers on what was meant to be her flagship post-Brexit policy.