Tuesday, March 19, 2013

MARCH 19 — In the last general election, the MCA fielded candidates in 40 parliamentary seats but won only 15 and lost the remaining 25 seats to the opposition in the political tsunami. This was by far the worst result ever for the MCA.

Will the MCA be able to retain and perhaps increase the existing 15 seats, or will its position be further weakened?

Two years ago, MCA president Chua Soi Lek announced that the MCA will not accept any Cabinet positions if the party obtains fewer than the existing 15 seats. This statement was made nearly two years ago when he first became MCA president but has not been repeated since.

Was he trying to blackmail the Chinese community into considering carefully before voting against the party? Was he more confident of a better performance then? His subsequent silence may mean he has either regretted his statement or that he is less confident of his party’s performance in the upcoming elections two years later.

According to the chart in this article, out of the 15 seats won by the MCA, only four seats have a majority, i.e. more than 50 per cent of Chinese voters — Kampar, Kluang, Gelang Patah and Kulai. Two other seats have marginally more Chinese than Malay voters i.e. Bentong and Labis. This shows that the MCA won these 15 seats with more support from the Malay community than the Chinese. Furthermore, out of the 15 seats, seven were won from the DAP, six from PKR and two from PAS. Interestingly enough, the other 25 seats where MCA lost were all Chinese plurality seats.

How then will the MCA fare in the 13th general election? Having exited the political arena, I will attempt to answer this objectively in spite of the fact that I was an MCA leader and also a victim of the political tsunami in 2008.

In general, most people think the MCA will obtain fewer than the 15 seats it garnered in 2008. As to the extent of the loss, this will depend on the following crucial factors that will decide the MCA’s fate:

1) The increase of the number of voters in the electoral roll will be a decisive factor. Generally these new additions are young, first-time voters who are anti-establishment and will normally vote against the incumbents. In other words, they will not be voting in favour of the MCA.

2) Out of the 15 seats won by the MCA, seven are located in Johor. Pakatan Rakyat has declared Johor as its frontline battle state in its plan to capture Putrajaya. Hence it will definitely concentrate on the seven MCA seats and also the sole MIC seat (Segamat) in the state. They will also be led by heavyweights like Salahuddin Ayub, one of the three vice-presidents of PAS and current MP for Kubang Kerian, Chua Jui Meng, also a PKR vice-president and former Bakri MP, and very likely Lim Kit Siang himself, who will move from Perak to Johor, the state where he was born. Another DAP central executive committee member and national leader, Liew Ching Tong, has already announced his intention to move from Penang.

3) Will Chor Chee Heung, who won marginally by 184 votes in Alor Star, and Kong Cho Ha with 298 votes be able to retain their seats ? Alor Star and Lumut have many more Malay voters than Chinese. In the last elections slightly more than 50 per cent Malays voted for the MCA/BN across the country. A slight decrease in Malay votes will make these two seats vulnerable. This potential decrease in Malay sentiment for BN will inevitably impact all the seats contested by the MCA that have more than 40 per cent Malay voters as nobody can deny that Chinese support for the MCA and BN is worse now compared to the last elections.

4) Of the 15 incumbents, at least five to eight will either be dropped by the MCA or will retire. Who will be replacing them? Will winnable candidates be fielded or will only the president’s men prevail? Chua Soi Lek has announced that Ong Tee Keat, a winnable candidate and current Pandan MP, will be dropped. Will Najib over-rule Soi Lek and retain Tee Keat? Ong Ka Ting, who won with a majority of 14,895 votes, has declared a few times that he is stepping down from his seat in Kulai. His successor would be hard pressed to retain this 59 per cent Chinese-majority seat. Ong Ka Chuan, Ka Ting’s older brother, will win in Tanjung Malim if he stands again. But will he be retained knowing the bad blood between Soi Lek and the Ong brothers?

5) Will Ng Yen Yen be able to retain her Raub seat after the Bukit Koman cyanide poisoning issue, the Psy “lou sang” incident and “Yes No Yes No” episode in Malacca?

6) How will Liow Tiong Lai fare against Himpunan Hijau’s Wong Tak standing on a DAP ticket? Will the change of candidate from a PKR to DAP one have any effect in this 47 per cent Chinese-majority seat?

7) Will the ongoing PKFZ trial of former MCA president Tun Dr Ling Liong Sik have any effect on all the MCA candidates? In particular, will it impact Kong Cho Ha who replaced Ong Tee Keat as transport minister?

8) Finally the key question: Will Soi Lek stand in this coming elections? If he stands, which seat will he choose? Will his sex scandal affect him only or have repercussions on all the MCA candidates? Without a doubt, all Pakatan candidates who are standing against Soi Lek and other MCA members will liberally remind voters of this sex scandal.

Pakatan knows MCA candidates will be the most vulnerable and hence will capitalise on this in its aim to win the election. They also know the DAP will be their best weapon to take down MCA candidates.

Hence, the Bentong seat that was previously contested by PKR was given to the DAP. Chua Jui Meng’s request to contest in his hometown and previous seat in Bakri when he was still a member of the MCA was also not considered and has been retained as the DAP’s. Lim Kit Siang recently announced Gelang Patah, a Chinese-majority seat, will be contested by the DAP although it was a PKR seat in the last election.

I am convinced that Pakatan will give seats to the DAP in whichever area it has a better chance to win.

In conclusion, while it would not be appropriate for me to pinpoint exactly which seats the MCA will retain or lose, I estimate that MCA will obtain somewhere between 5-10 seats out of these 15 seats.

In my next article, I will look into how the MCA will fare in the 25 seats it lost.

* Datuk Lee Hwa Beng is the former MCA state assemblyman for Subang Jaya (three terms from 1995-2008). Stood as the BN candidate for the Kelana Jaya parliamentary seat in 2008 and lost. Appointed Port Klang Authority chairman to investigate the PKFZ scandal from 2008 to 2011 and the author of “PKFZ: A Nation’s Trust Betrayed.”

* This is the personal opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of The Malaysian Insider.

Tuesday, February 26, 2013

Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim flirted with his smartphone throughout the 4th Pakatan Rakyat Convention on Monday. The fact that he took the convention so nonchalantly and let others run the show is a sign of how much things have changed in the opposition camp. Back in 1999 when DAP, PAS and Keadilan first formed a pact, the Barisan Alternatif, he was the shadowy overarching figure behind bars. Anwar Ibrahim, the man, was the glue, the purpose and the Messiah.

Anwar is so deeply intertwined with the very existence of Pakatan and its predecessor that many people couldn’t imagine how Pakatan can move together when Anwar is no longer around. However, while the former Deputy Prime Minister is still a very influential leader, Pakatan has outgrown the man.

The Making of Anwar and Pakatan

To know how Pakatan can take on a life of its own beyond the PKR de factor leader, we have to understand why Anwar is so important at first. He’s able to play the mediator role like no other politician and in no small part this is due to the fact that he and Tok Guru Abdul Hadi Awang has known each other for more than 30 years since their days in Angkatan Belia Islam Malaysia (ABIM). In fact Anwar was so closely associated with PAS in his youth days and him joining UMNO was seen as an act of betrayal by some. But the bond they once shared was not broken, in fact resurrected in 1999.

Anwar’s relationship with PAS is a clue to understanding his political journey. He understands PAS’s ideology, its values and its history. He knows how things work according to the party’s tradition. Hence he is able to fit in and accepted by most leaders and members, discounting those who have personal feud with him or find his history in Barisan Nasional too much to swallow. The same principle applies to his association with DAP. Anwar’s ability to churn out verses from the Koran is as good as his ability to quote Shakespeare and Edmund Burke. He’s incredibly informed about secular and democratic principles which are cherished by the DAP. DAP’s leaders and supporters have no better representation of an ideal Muslim-Democrat than Anwar, the Newsweek‘s Asian of the Year in 1998. This is no small matter in demonstrating why he’s able to fit in. He understands them and they accept him as a man who knows their tradition and values. This is someone they can trust.

The Federal Constitution is available at Popular and MPH Bookstore for RM 10.

That is also the main reason Anwar Ibrahim is Pakatan’s Prime Minister candidate as agreed by Tok Guru Nik Aziz, Lim Kit Siang and well, Datuk Seri Wan Azizah. Hadi Awang is the preferred candidate by some in PAS but that’s precisely the limit of that claim. Lim Guan Eng is even more unlikely. This is something worth clarifying. It is not that a non-Malay cannot become the Prime Minister. It is constitutionally legal as Article 43 makes no prohibition on this matter. But the Prime Minister must be someone trusted not only by the majority in Parliament but also by his or her political allies from the top to grassroots level. The leader of the coalition must be able to act as the glue and rallying point. A non-Malay or/and a female will only become Prime Minister when he or she gains such trust on a large scale, like Barack Obama. And of course, good governance, fluency in the national language and appreciation of Islamic values improve one’s chances.

Beyond the man

On December 2010, Anwar did not speak at the 2nd Pakatan Rakyat Convention. The rejuvenation process has started without many of us noticing. Anwar was planting trees under whose shadows he would not sit. It seemed that his colleagues and him agreed that it was necessary to not be over-dependent on him and hence let others take to the platform and shine. Over the last four years, we have seen the result of such deliberate strategy through the younger batch of leaders like Rafizi Ramli, Tony Pua and Mujahid Yusof Rawa who are playing more important roles. Faces which we barely recognize years ago are now the key spokespersons for their parties.

Just like how Anwar, Hadi Awang and their cohorts first developed their association, Pakatan’s next generation leaders are having the same, in fact more opportunity to cultivate trust and bonds. After five or more years of working together in their 30s and 40s, the crucial years in which one’s political career, they must have established at least a working, if not a much appreciated relationship. More of such cross-party collaboration, understanding and unity are catalysts for creating trust among those young leaders. Indeed there are much more dynamic cross-party interaction and cooperation in Pakatan than ever before, especially in Selangor.

Article 43 dealing with the Executive makes no mention of race as a factor in choosing the Prime Minister.

At the Shah Alam Convention Center, Rafizi, Dr Dzulkefly Ahmad and M.Kulasegaran presented the coalition’s new election manifesto. Pakatan’s decision to let the next generation leaders craft and deliver the manifesto is a clever one. Indeed this is something Barisan must learn.

Celebrated football coach Jose Mourinho said “Individuals don’t win you trophies. Teams win you trophies.” Pakatan has an impressively talented and youthful team with the likes of Rafizi, Kulasegaran, Dr Zul, Guan Eng, Hadi Awang, Nik Nazmi, Nurul Izzah, Tony Pua, Anthony Loke, Ong Kian Ming, Mujahid Yusof Rawa, Liew Chin Tong, Hannah Yeoh, Baru Bian, Jeff Ooi, Teresa Kok and of course Tan Sri Khalid Ibrahim. From young professionals to religious scholars, highly educated intellectuals to civil rights lawyers, financial consultants to GLC executives, they have much variety. These individuals cannot compete with Anwar but as a team, they can fill in his shoes. The whole team is bigger than the sum of individuals.

In addition, new members and future politicians from my generation do not have deep loyalty and attachment to figureheads. Many of the new cohorts join Pakatan not because they idolize Anwar. They do so because they want policy changes in the government to represent and enhance the interests of the Rakyat. They want better education, affordable housing schemes, economic growth, crackdown on corruption, secure border control and a more inclusive, united Malaysia. In short, it’s not for Anwar though he may be the means for those ends. This is in contrast with Keadilan 15 years ago when most of their members were Anwar’s political friends, family members and hardcore supporters. The coalition still needs Anwar, Kit Siang and Hadi Awang to lead the way for the next few years. But it is definitely bigger than the personalities now.

Perhaps it is by fate that when I first saw Anwar, he said to the audience “Men come and go. But the river stays.” As such, after laying the foundation and painting the vision for the coalition to move forward, Anwar can congratulate himself for kick-starting a wheel of change that will keep on rotating. As the clock ticks, new waves of men and women are emerging and grasping the meaning of democracy. Pakatan will survive beyond Anwar and the wheel of change, that spirit of Reformasi and new politics, will survive beyond Pakatan.

Wednesday, February 13, 2013

Instead of being a multi-million ringgit coup for Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak and the Barisan Nasional, it has turned out to be a multi-billion ringgit disaster for Najib and BN in the run-up to the 13th General Elections.

Completely forgotten are the millions of ringgit lavished by unknown sponsors with unknown motives who brought Psy and his troupe in a direct 20-hour flight from Brazil to Penang, the thousands of 1Malaysia flags which littered Penang island for Najib's two-day Chinese New Year visit to Penang or Najib's latest "I help you, You help me" offerings.

Worse damage to the BN than Bersih or even HRK rallies

What will forever be remembered about Najib's CNY do in Penang is the one-minute video which has gone viral and an even hotter sensation than Psy and Gangnam Style - when Najib asked the crowd at Han Chiang School grounds whether they are ready for Psy and ready for BN.

In fact, the thunderous three "Yes" to Najib's questions whether the crowd was ready for Psy followed by the equally thunderous and spontaneous three "Noes" when Najib asked thrice whether they were ready for BN have destroyed Najib's elaborate edifice of supreme confidence of winning handsomely in the 13GE , which has collapsed like a house of cards.

It is even more devastating to Umno/BN's electoral prospects in the 13GE than Bersih 2.0, Bersih 3.0 or Himpunan Kebangkitan Rakyat KL112 - especially as it is a completely self-inflicted disaster.

BN shatters own false image of confidence

It has put paid to the glowing picture painted by Umno/BN leaders and propagandists that Umno/BN will win big in 13GE, not only with a two-thirds parliamentary majority but even winning back the presently-held Pakatan Rakyat states including Penang.

In retrospect, when the history of 13 GE is written, the Psy and Gangman Style appearance, with the three "yes" for Psy and the three "Noes" for BN, may mark the watershed of Malaysian political history signifying the beginning of the end for Najib and Umno hegemony in Malaysian politics.

Although Najib and Umno/BN have suffered a major self-inflicted blow in the final lap to the 13GE, Pakatan Rakyat leaders, members and supporters must not be over-confident and regard that the race to Putrajaya as won.

I have always held the view that the outcome of the 13GE is going to be a toss-up, that although Umno/BN have the edge because of the advantages as well as the abuses of incumbency, PR can still win the 13GE to form the Federal Government as the election campaign period will hold the critical and final key as to who will emerge the winner.

Twitter

Total Pageviews

About Me

Received my LLB (Hons) from the University of Nottingham in 2007.
Currently working as the Senior Manager at Greatpac Sdn Bhd.
A columnist for the Malaysia Chronicle, a member of the Democratic Action Party, a bioplastic consultant, Foodie, and Christian. All Praise, Honour and Glory be His!