California's GOP Future

Many Republicans in California appear resigned to Gov. Jerry Brown's re-election this fall. The state's economy and housing markets are finally rebounding, at least along the coast. The Democratic governor's approval ratings are among the highest nationwide. And he's got $20 million in the bank—which is 20 times as much as all of his GOP challengers combined.

So perhaps it's not surprising that GOP donors consider state legislative races a better investment. Still, this view is short-sighted. Sure, legislative races cost a fraction of what's required to make a competitive bid for statewide office, let alone governor. A Republican could win a legislative seat by spending a few hundred thousand dollars but would need several million to campaign statewide. Paid advertising—which is still the most effective way of reaching masses of voters—isn't cheap in the Los Angeles and Bay Area media markets.

And yes, regaining a check on tax increases and other perquisites that the Democratic supermajority enjoys ought to be the GOP's paramount goal this fall. (Democrats have temporarily lost their supermajority due to criminal prosecutions of several state senators, but will reclaim their power once those legislators in safely Democratic districts are replaced).

All that said, Republicans ignore the gubernatorial primary in June at their peril, since the candidate at the top-of-the-ticket could help determine the outcome of down-ballot contests. A new Field Poll shows Mr. Brown leading in the state's open primary with 57%, distantly trailed by Republican state Assemblyman Tim Donnelly (17%), Laguna Hills Mayor Andrew Blount (3%) and investment banker
Neel Kashkari
(2%). Mr. Donnelly has cultivated support among the tea-party grassroots by fashioning himself as a guns-rights advocate and immigrant vigilante. The Los Angeles Times this week reported that Mr. Donnelly once proclaimed that illegal immigrants had declared "war on us."

"We are on the brink of a battle unlike the likes of which this nation has seen since 1861," he said back in 2006. "We need to begin to root out the insurgency in cities like Los Angeles, Chicago and New York, just as we are doing in Baghdad, Samarra and Tikrit, 9,000 miles away," adding that "in the United States of America, there are 850,000 gang members, two-thirds of whom are illegal aliens." Mr. Donnelly has stood by these comments. Democrats would love nothing more than to hoist Mr. Donnelly this fall as a symbol of the Republican Party—radical, angry white guys.

Mr. Donnelly's natural foil is the moderate Mr. Kashkari, a son of Indian immigrants. While Mr. Kashkari also carries baggage (namely, his stewardship of the Wall Street bailout), he's reached out to minorities and taken liberal positions on cultural issues like same-sex marriage that make Republicans appear more inclusive. Both may be disqualifiers for tea-party voters who are more likely than GOP moderates and independents to turn out in June.

However, the main reason that Mr. Kashkari hasn't gained traction—about two thirds of voters have no opinion of him—is that he can't afford a lot of advertising. Republican politicians are also sitting on the sidelines because they fear upsetting the tea party. But barring an insurgence by the state's silent GOP majority, California Republicans can look forward to being represented this fall by Mr. Donnelly—and perhaps consequently a Democratic supermajority.