25 minute warning could save tens of thousands. It would save most of the military because they would have better access to protection. Even if you were in downtown Honolulu you could hide in the basements of the big buildings and you might survive.

Honestly, if there were an actual DPRK ballistic missile that was suspect of being armed with a nuclear weapon and which was suspected of having a trajectory to strike U.S. territory, I would entertain the possibility that the best approach would be to QUIETLY notify certain Federal and State officials and/or disaster-preparedness organizations, launch the interdiction missiles and hope the story to be told in 12 hours will be of a foiled attack.

Distributing an alert via mobile device is probably just about the most useless and stupid effort to promote public welfare in response to a suspected nuclear attack.

Some people would be fucked, but early warning could still help blast fringers.

True. But . . . bedlam and gridlock on the roads might well kill MORE.

Probably the safest thing for anyone in an impending nuclear blast zone to do is to get underground. Ideally that would mean in a specially prepared shelter for the purpose (complete with airtight seals and some form of filtering ventilation system to remove particles from outside air as breathing air is fed into the shelter) and including rations, medicine, weapons, etc.

In the 1950s, many American households fashioned exactly these kinds of things in their backyards/basements. In fact, it was done in Europe (and probably Russia?) too. If we were in the midst of a similar international relations dynamic, and citizens of Hawaii, Guam, Alaska, the Western U.S. could be encouraged to build/pay for fallout shelters (as well as good preparatory advice and proper protocols for how to respond to an alert of impending attack), then yes: early warning could well make a salutary difference in overall casualties.

But early warning for this type of attack in a context which is decidedly NOT socially-prepared for nuclear war is probably not going to be more salutary, and may well cause more harm than it prevents. Especially in the case of false alarms.

jack t ripper wrote:

25 minute warning could save tens of thousands. It would save most of the military because they would have better access to protection. Even if you were in downtown Honolulu you could hide in the basements of the big buildings and you might survive.

I modeled a 150kt blast at Dobbins Air Reserve Base in Marietta (closest legit military target to me that I know of)

Assuming a general "alert" were issued to the entire metro area, the ensuing bedlam might well cause thousands of casualties (and enormous property damage) even if it turned out to be a false alarm. I would imagine the same is true for the Honolulu area.

ADDIT # 2:

jack t ripper wrote:

25 minute warning could save tens of thousands. It would save most of the military because they would have better access to protection. Even if you were in downtown Honolulu you could hide in the basements of the big buildings and you might survive.

25 minute warning COULD save lives, IF the population are well-prepared to act accordingly. In the absence of proper preparation to act accordingly, the actual harm might be WORSE as a result of early warning (even in the event of an actual attack) and certainly in the event of a false alarm.

What exactly is the average urban dweller in a high-rise in Honolulu going to do with 25 minutes of warning? Very likely the answer to that question is "run like a chicken with its head cut off" and when you have hundreds of thousands of people doing THAT, that is not "promoting public health," and it probably isn't making them any safer in the face of an actual nuclear attack either.

_________________Nero: So what is your challenge?

Anthro: Answer question #2: How do "Climate Change models" mathematically control for the natural forces which caused the Ice Age(s) to come and go . . . repeatedly?

Last edited by Anthropoid on Sat Jan 13, 2018 6:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.

_________________I could be the catalyst that sparks the revolutionI could be an inmate in a long-term institutionI could dream to wide extremes, I could do or dieI could yawn and be withdrawn and watch the world go byWhat a waste...

This Hawaii missle scare is on YOU Mr. Trump. The real FEAR that mothers & fathers & children felt is on YOU. It is on YOUR ARROGANCE. HUBRIS. NARCISSISM. RAGE. EGO. IMMATURITY and your UNSTABLE IDIOCY. Shame on your hate filled self. YOU DID THIS!

12:24 PM - Jan 13, 2018

_________________I haven't figured out how to the block thingy works but if anyone alters my posts I will become really, really angry and throw monkey poop out of my cage.

What a fucking retard. The PRK has been building nukes since the Clinton administration and the Chicoms gave them the parts and plans for the missiles. The PRK has been murdering thousands in concentration camps for decades.

_________________I haven't figured out how to the block thingy works but if anyone alters my posts I will become really, really angry and throw monkey poop out of my cage.

This Hawaii missle scare is on YOU Mr. Trump. The real FEAR that mothers & fathers & children felt is on YOU. It is on YOUR ARROGANCE. HUBRIS. NARCISSISM. RAGE. EGO. IMMATURITY and your UNSTABLE IDIOCY. Shame on your hate filled self. YOU DID THIS!

_________________I could be the catalyst that sparks the revolutionI could be an inmate in a long-term institutionI could dream to wide extremes, I could do or dieI could yawn and be withdrawn and watch the world go byWhat a waste...

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