The Topline: Diving into the Boston Olympics Polling

Welcome to the inaugural issue of The Topline, a biweekly round-up of polling, politics and data from The MassINC Polling Group. Every edition we’ll go in depth on one or two issues and then provide some links to the best of the web.10-Meter Springboard: Diving into the Boston Olympics Polling

In the weeks since the U.S. Olympic Committee named Boston as its bid city for the 2024 Summer Games, there's been much said about the level of public support for Boston hosting the games. Boosters of Boston 2024 say the bid enjoys "strong majority support", but the polls, including public polls like ours for WBUR, indicate the public is not quite there yet. Most polls show more favor the idea than oppose it, but that overall support is tepid when compared to other host cities, and the public remains nervous about some of the specifics.

Since the WBUR poll, another public poll has been released showing the public split over Boston hosting the games. Emerson College Polling Society's survey is the first to show more opposition than support to hosting the games. Forty-eight percent of residents statewide oppose the bid, 42 percent are supportive, and 10 percent are on the fence. This is the lowest level of support for the Games found so far; the others show support levels between 47 percent and 55 percent.

All of this could change, too, with the problems facing the MBTA following the historic snowfall of the past week. All of the polls shown here were done before the storm, although The Boston Globe reports questionsas to whether the T's woes will affect support levels. The impact of big events on public opinion often fades over time, although the (hopefully) one-time nature of this event makes it difficult to gauge its lasting impact, if any.

Support weakest closest in: Taken as a whole, these polls suggest that support for the games is somewhat lower in Boston itself than outside the city. The regional split is important, given the prospect of a potential ballot challenge either at the local or state level. Boston City Councillor Josh Zakim filed four non-binding questions about the Olympics to appear, potentially, on the November municipal ballot. United Independent Party Evan Falchuk has said he will collect signatures to put a question on the statewide ballot in 2016.

A Boston Globe poll, from June of last year, found 59 percent support in Western Massachusetts and 71 percent on the Cape and Islands, but only 38 percent in Metro Boston. The Emerson poll found a similar split.

Young people excited: One demographic in Boston 2024's favor are young people. Our WBUR poll found 69 percent of 18-29 year old voters are excited about hosting the games, far higher than the overall figure of 50 percent. Excitement declines with age; only 31 percent of voters aged 60 or older say they are excited. Boston 2024's pollster noted a similar dynamic in terms of support for hosting. The Sage poll also found the 18-34 cohort most supportive of hosting the games.

This age split is not what political leaders would hope for. Given younger people's tendency not to vote, particularly in years with lower turnout, doing things only younger people support may be a shaky re-election strategy. This age split could also prove critical if a Boston-only vote is held this year. Younger people are much less likely to show up at the polls in an off-year like 2015 than 2016, a Presidential year. Thus, a local ballot question this year is potentially more likely than a statewide ballot question to go against supporters of the Olympics.

Who you gonna call? Landline users. The Emerson poll, along with the two Sage Systems polls, were done by interactive voice response (IVR). By law, such polls can only be administered via landline, and thus cannot reach the estimated 40 percent of households that rely exclusively on cell phones. This group grows every year, making exclusive reliance on landline users an increasingly dicey proposition. Some companies that use IVR now supplement it with online interviews to reach cell-only respondents. (The Emerson and Sage polls did not do so, according to their methods reports.)

Survey professionals recently debated whether margin or error -- often misinterpreted by poll readers -- should be reported with polls at all, especially now that many polls cannot be said to be truly representative samples of the entire population. Webinar organizer Anne Petit has a recap. HuffPollster's Mark Blumenthal offers ahelpful explainer on the issue.