49ers-Saints Matchup Presents Interesting Values

No more bye weeks. Hallelujah! The playoffs are near. Double hallelujah!

Quarterback Points Allowed

Rank

Team

Opp

PPG

Rank

Team

Opp

PPG

1

San Francisco 49ers

NO

20.9

17

Seattle Seahawks

MIA

15.4

2

Indianapolis Colts

BUF

17.8

18

Oakland Raiders

CIN

13.7

3

Cincinnati Bengals

OAK

18.3

19

Green Bay Packers

NYG

15.9

4

Tennessee Titans

JAX

17.5

20

New York Giants

GB

14.5

5

Jacksonville Jaguars

TEN

17.6

21

San Diego Chargers

BAL

12.1

6

Chicago Bears

MIN

18.7

22

Philadelphia Eagles

CAR

14.4

7

Atlanta Falcons

TB

17.7

23

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

ATL

12.8

8

Dallas Cowboys

WAS

17.5

24

Washington Redskins

DAL

12.1

9

Buffalo Bills

IND

16.6

25

Detroit Lions

HOU

12.8

10

Pittsburgh Steelers

CLE

16.8

26

New England Patriots

NYJ

12.2

11

New York Jets

NE

17.3

27

Kansas City Chiefs

DEN

14.1

12

Denver Broncos

KC

17.3

28

Cleveland Browns

PIT

10.5

13

Carolina Panthers

PHI

16.1

29

Miami Dolphins

SEA

10.4

14

Baltimore Ravens

SAD

15.7

30

New Orleans Saints

SAF

10.8

15

Houston Texans

DET

15.2

31

St Louis Rams

ARI

11.1

16

Arizona Cardinals

STL

16.0

32

Minnesota Vikings

CHI

9.4

ACES IN THE HOLE

As if the Colin Kaepernick craze wasn’t high enough after his performance on Monday night, now Fantasy owners are gushing over him, as the 49ers face the Saints this week. By now, we all know the Saints are a Fantasy matchup dream, but let’s not get carried away. Sure, the Saints allow a league-high 20.9 FPPG to QBs – over two points more than anyone else. And in truth, I actually liked Kaepernick more than any other QB in the 2011 draft (Cam Newton included), as he is a dual-threat QB with actual passing skills. However, I still wouldn’t put Kaep in my Top 10, possibly even Top 15, for QBs in Week 12. Kaep has tons of upside, but it’s only his second start.

Someone who has several more starts, and plenty of clout given his play, is Andrew Luck. He’s locked in to Top 10 QB status at this point, and with Buffalo on tap, Luck has a chance to reach the Top Five. The Bills have allowed the third-most passing TDs (19) and an average of 247.8 Yards per Game, both of which prove why Luck is primed for a big week.

Thanks to Andy Dalton flashing some rushing ability against the Chiefs, he’s now posted back-to-back 20-plus FP weeks (23 and 24). Dalton has a great chance to keep that streak going against Oakland, a team that has already allowed 20 passing TDs, and gave up 50 FP to QBs over the past two games (one of those being against mid-level QB, Joe Flacco).

TOUGH DEAL

Christian Ponder has only one quality scoring performance since Week 6, and it came right before the Vikings bye, when they faced the Lions. The Bears aren’t the Lions defensively. In fact, the Bears might still be better than Detroit versus the pass with only 10 players on D. Even after Kaepernick’s decent game, the Bears still are the only team allowing fewer than 10 FPPG (9.4) to QBs. You want no part of Ponder in Week 12.

Another QB you need to avoid is Sam Bradford. With only two games in which he topped 12 FPs, Bradford likely wasn’t on anyone’s radar anyway. However, if you are in a deep league and lost Ben Roethlisberger or Michael Vick, you should find a higher-upside option than Bradford against the Cardinals pass defense.

Normally, I’d skip the obvious choices for exploiting or avoiding matchups, but apparently, I need to reiterate that Drew Brees should not be benched. Ignore the fact that Brees faces the 49ers defense; it’s Drew…stinkin’…Brees. He’s the leading scorer in Fantasy and his lowest output was 14 FP against a very strong Denver secondary. I’ll say it one more time, “Do NOT sit Brees!”

Running Back Points Allowed

Rank

Team

Opp

PPG

Rank

Team

Opp

PPG

1

Indianapolis Colts

BUF

24.1

17

Dallas Cowboys

WAS

13.5

2

San Francisco 49ers

NO

22.1

18

Carolina Panthers

PHI

14.5

3

Tennessee Titans

JAX

20.6

19

Baltimore Ravens

SAD

14.1

4

Jacksonville Jaguars

TEN

21.0

20

Cleveland Browns

PIT

12.9

5

Buffalo Bills

IND

18.1

21

Atlanta Falcons

TB

14.8

6

Cincinnati Bengals

OAK

21.5

22

New York Jets

NE

13.7

7

Denver Broncos

KC

18.6

23

St Louis Rams

ARI

14.0

8

Oakland Raiders

CIN

17.2

24

Chicago Bears

MIN

14.0

9

San Diego Chargers

BAL

17.9

25

Green Bay Packers

NYG

12.6

10

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

ATL

18.1

26

Houston Texans

DET

12.3

11

Pittsburgh Steelers

CLE

17.0

27

Kansas City Chiefs

DEN

13.5

12

Philadelphia Eagles

CAR

17.7

28

Seattle Seahawks

MIA

12.6

13

New England Patriots

NYJ

17.0

29

Miami Dolphins

SEA

11.5

14

Arizona Cardinals

STL

16.9

30

New Orleans Saints

SAF

9.5

15

Washington Redskins

DAL

15.0

31

Detroit Lions

HOU

10.0

16

New York Giants

GB

14.3

32

Minnesota Vikings

CHI

10.8

ACES IN THE HOLE

Timeshares are more prevalent than ever in NFL backfields, and it continues to frustrate Fantasy owners. With the Colts facing the Bills, we see more proof of why. If it was just Donald Brown or Vick Ballard carrying the workload, we’d have a clear RB2 with upside for more. As it stands, Brown and Ballard continue to split carries, which makes both valuable as flex/RB3s, given the matchup, but we can’t rank them higher because of the timeshare.

I’m certain that Frank Gore is much happier seeing the Saints on the schedule than he was facing the Bears. New Orleans is second only to Buffalo in RB FPPG allowed, and they’ve allowed 135.5 rushing YPG – worst in the league. Even with Kendall Hunter getting more work to keep Gore healthy, Gore has legitimate RB1 value.

While Jacksonville gives up slightly fewer FPPG to RBs than Tennessee, they are actually the better matchup for opponents, given their defensive metrics. That gives Chris Johnson a great shot at keeping his double-digit FP streak going. Since his zero-point effort in Week 5, CJK is averaging 17.4 FPPG, and the Jags allow an average of 20.6 FP per game. Most of those will go Johnson’s way.

Quick shot: Tennessee is also awful against RBs; so those of you in desperation mode at RB can grab and plug in Jalen Parmele as a low-end RB2/flex play.

TOUGH DEAL

Just like Drew Brees, Adrian Peterson never sits, no matter the matchup. Ignore the Bears defense and their stingy 10.8 FPPG to RBs; ADP can overcome that on one good leg.

One RB who isn’t matchup-proof is Mikel Leshoure. While he’s looked good at times and could be the best RB Detroit has seen in years, he is not a premiere talent, and Houston is a dangerous opponent. The Texans still haven’t given up a rushing TD and they haven’t allowed opposing team RBs to top 12 FP since Week 4. Leshoure barely reaches RB2 level this Thanksgiving.

Even with 38 points scored against the Raiders, no Saints RB saw a large share of the workload (Mark Ingram 12 carries, Chris Ivory eight, Pierre Thomas five). Sure, Ingram reached the end zone, but you can’t use any Saints RB with confidence. The 49ers allow a league-low 9.5 FPPG to RBs and have only given up two rushing TDs.

Wide Receiver Points Allowed

Rank

Team

Opp

PPG

Rank

Team

Opp

PPG

1

San Francisco 49ers

NO

27.6

17

Carolina Panthers

PHI

21.2

2

Buffalo Bills

IND

25.6

18

San Diego Chargers

BAL

19.3

3

Dallas Cowboys

WAS

26.2

19

Chicago Bears

MIN

19.1

4

Indianapolis Colts

BUF

22.3

20

Oakland Raiders

CIN

16.8

5

Tennessee Titans

JAX

23.1

21

Washington Redskins

DAL

18.1

6

Pittsburgh Steelers

CLE

25.2

22

St Louis Rams

ARI

20.5

7

Atlanta Falcons

TB

27.5

23

Arizona Cardinals

STL

18.4

8

New York Jets

NE

26.0

24

Detroit Lions

HOU

20.1

9

Cincinnati Bengals

OAK

21.4

25

Cleveland Browns

PIT

15.1

10

Jacksonville Jaguars

TEN

21.3

26

New England Patriots

NYJ

16.3

11

Baltimore Ravens

SAD

21.7

27

Philadelphia Eagles

CAR

17.7

12

Houston Texans

DET

20.7

28

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

ATL

15.4

13

Green Bay Packers

NYG

24.7

29

Minnesota Vikings

CHI

18.0

14

Denver Broncos

KC

20.5

30

Kansas City Chiefs

DEN

17.6

15

Seattle Seahawks

MIA

22.0

31

Miami Dolphins

SEA

15.0

16

New York Giants

GB

22.4

32

New Orleans Saints

SAF

16.2

ACES IN THE HOLE

As mentioned earlier, the 49ers have the best overall matchup of the week, and that presents Kaepernick with some upside. The same goes for the WRs, but they are an even riskier proposition if Kaep starts. We cannot say for certain which receiver WR Kaepernick is most comfortable with, as Michael Crabtree led all WRs with only five targets. Vernon Davis appears to be the main beneficiary, and any WR not named Crabtree is too much of risk, aside from deep leagues and desperate owners.

Stevie Johnson has just one double-digit game since Week 3, and not coincidentally, it included a TD catch. The four games in which Stevie has caught a TD are the games in which he’s reached double-digits. The good news is that Indy has allowed the third most receiving TDs (14, four teams tied at 15). Even without a TD the past two games, Stevie’s solid reception total (six in each game) allowed him to post respectable FP totals of eight and seven respectively. He’s locked in as a WR2 this week. Donald Jones is similar to the secondary 49ers WRs, with enough upside to warrant deep-league play.

Dez Bryant hadn’t been a consistent option or even worthy of a high ranking in PPR leagues. And then that happened. With 12 catches, 145 yards and a TD against Cleveland, Bryant once again has us giddy over what he can do with that talent of his. It was a great week to get on track because playing Washington is the best way to keep that production going. The Skins allow the second most FPPG to WRs and are fourth in receiving yards allowed, just 0.4 YPG fewer than the Patriots. Dez will border on WR1 value, and don’t forget Miles Austin, as he deserves the fringe-WR1 tag as well.

TOUGH DEAL

Marques Colston doesn’t find a spot on your bench unless you are loaded at WR, but Lance Moore and the rest of Saints WRs certainly can. Moore’s numbers are inconsistent, and we’d expect nothing different in that offense. With the 49ers having allowed a league-low five TD receptions to WRs, Moore is a risky play, and you should just ignore the rest.

The shoe dropped for Brian Hartline immediately after his Week 4 explosion. Hartline only has one game in double-digits since then and zero TD catches. Seattle allows just 120.1 WR receiving YPG, and that sets up Hartline for another quiet week. Davone Bess shouldn’t even register on your Fantasy radar.

Can anyone blame Dwayne Bowe for wanting out of Kansas City? No matter who is at quarterback for the Chiefs, they simply haven’t made the most of Bowe’s talents. If you look at Week 2 and Week 4 for Bowe, you’ll see the type of numbers that could make him elite. Unfortunately, Bowe’s highest total since then is just six FPs. With a matchup against Denver’s top-notch secondary this week, Bowe might not reach even six FP.

Tight End Points Allowed

Rank

Team

Opp

PPG

Rank

Team

Opp

PPG

1

Jacksonville Jaguars

TEN

10.3

17

Denver Broncos

KC

6.2

2

Dallas Cowboys

WAS

10.2

18

Washington Redskins

DAL

6.4

3

San Francisco 49ers

NO

7.5

19

Arizona Cardinals

STL

6.7

4

Houston Texans

DET

8.2

20

Seattle Seahawks

MIA

6.4

5

Cincinnati Bengals

OAK

7.9

21

San Diego Chargers

BAL

6.0

6

Oakland Raiders

CIN

8.5

22

Baltimore Ravens

SAD

5.2

7

Indianapolis Colts

BUF

7.3

23

Green Bay Packers

NYG

6.7

8

New York Jets

NE

9.3

24

Detroit Lions

HOU

7.0

9

New England Patriots

NYJ

8.4

25

Miami Dolphins

SEA

6.2

10

Kansas City Chiefs

DEN

10.8

26

Pittsburgh Steelers

CLE

4.6

11

Tennessee Titans

JAX

6.7

27

Cleveland Browns

PIT

5.1

12

Chicago Bears

MIN

7.2

28

Carolina Panthers

PHI

5.7

13

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

ATL

7.4

29

New York Giants

GB

5.9

14

Atlanta Falcons

TB

7.2

30

Minnesota Vikings

CHI

5.9

15

Buffalo Bills

IND

5.8

31

St Louis Rams

ARI

5.1

16

Philadelphia Eagles

CAR

7.5

32

New Orleans Saints

SAF

4.7

ACES IN THE HOLE

I’m not sure why owners are frenzied over Marcedes Lewis after one great game. Without a TD catch, Lewis’ highest output is just four FP. I still don’t recommend him in most leagues, but with a matchup against Tennessee, Lewis could easily provide value again. Just know that there are several other more reliable tight ends possibly available, including Brandon Myers (seriously, what does it take for you guys to grab him?), Jermaine Gresham, Jared Cook and Greg Olsen.

Jason Witten always starts for you, and he’s a Top Five TE against Washington.

As we noted, Vernon Davis put up his second-best game of the season with Kaep at QB. Even if Alex Smith plays some snaps, Davis is back to TE1 status against the weak Saints defense.

TOUGH DEAL

You’re not benching Jimmy Graham, even against the 49ers defense, so let’s move on.

Also, moving past Lance Kendricks (does anyone even have him rostered?), we see Kyle Rudolph in a tough matchup. Not only is Rudy reliant on TDs for Fantasy production, but Chicago allows just 56.1 yards and 5.9 FP per game to TEs.

So much for those first three games for Martellus Bennett. Since then, Bennett has just one game with more than four FP, and only seven versus the lowly Skins. Find a different TE solution this week.

(Reminder: You’ll notice the rankings are not in exact order of points allowed. Other metrics are calculated in along with just straight points. It allows for better analysis so one off-week doesn’t skew the opponent difficulty too greatly.)

Jake Ciely is an award-nominated fantasy writer with over 15 years of experience. In addition to being the Senior Writer for MLB and NFL at RotoExperts.com, he is also regularly featured on the Fantasy Sports Network (FNTSY) and deals out DFS advice for MLB and NFL. He’s also a poker enthusiast, hence the "All In Kid" nickname, and he pioneered the poker-fantasy sports connection over a decade ago. Jake uses his sought after, self-created metrics to be one of the industry's most accurate experts in rankings and predictions. Get the Fantasy deal from him on Twitter @allinkid or by emailing jake@rotoexperts.com.