In Georgia, itís:whites without college degree:Trump 69%Clinton 16%Johnson 12%

whites with a college degree:Trump 59%Clinton 32%Johnson 5%

non-whites:Clinton 77%Trump 9%Johnson 6%

In the two-way model of this, Clinton's pulling 89% among non-whites (2008 numbers) and 27% among whites (better than 2008 numbers). She only needs a replication of '08 support numbers or slightly below to win the state.

I guess this is why all of the (non-creepy) Trump kids have visited Georgia in the past few days. Sending your top surrogates to a state like Georgia in the final weeks doesn't look good.

In Georgia, itís:whites without college degree:Trump 69%Clinton 16%Johnson 12%

whites with a college degree:Trump 59%Clinton 32%Johnson 5%

non-whites:Clinton 77%Trump 9%Johnson 6%

In the two-way model of this, Clinton's pulling 89% among non-whites (2008 numbers) and 27% among whites (better than 2008 numbers). She only needs a replication of '08 support numbers or slightly below to win the state.

I guess this is why all of the (non-creepy) Trump kids have visited Georgia in the past few days. Sending your top surrogates to a state like Georgia in the final weeks doesn't look good.

5% undecided for GA, if they split 4-1 Trump, he wins 48-44 in the three-way. Even if they somehow split 3-2 Clinton, it's a 46-46 tie. The way it would work out for Clinton is if Johnson gets a notable amount of late deciders, if we split it 3-1-1 (Clinton-Trump-Johnson), then Clinton ekes it out 46-45.

As you can see, Trump is probably still the favorite on some level in this state.

5% undecided for GA, if they split 4-1 Trump, he wins 48-44 in the three-way. Even if they somehow split 3-2 Clinton, it's a 46-46 tie. The way it would work out for Clinton is if Johnson gets a notable amount of late deciders, if we split it 3-1-1 (Clinton-Trump-Johnson), then Clinton ekes it out 46-45.

As you can see, Trump is probably still the favorite on some level in this state.

What happens if they just don't vote, which is just as possible at this point in the game.

5% undecided for GA, if they split 4-1 Trump, he wins 48-44 in the three-way. Even if they somehow split 3-2 Clinton, it's a 46-46 tie. The way it would work out for Clinton is if Johnson gets a notable amount of late deciders, if we split it 3-1-1 (Clinton-Trump-Johnson), then Clinton ekes it out 46-45.

As you can see, Trump is probably still the favorite on some level in this state.

Yes, I'd agree with this from my perception on the ground (which is admittedly limited to my social circle and the people I work with). I think Trump has slightly more support overall. Whether that support translates into more votes is a different and more interesting question. There seems to be more enthusiasm among the Clinton supporters. I think it really could go either way.

I mean I guess the big swinger is the Missouri poll showing Trump up 11, but really why should a Missouri poll swing it that much when we basically know Trump is going to win Missouri?

It wasn't meant as critique of this particular post, but about Nate being a clickbait.I mean it is more or less the same model that was used in 2012 etc. Plus Nate is probably extra cautious bc of ~Brexit'ish phenomena.

I think, Pew was the mostly responsible for it. It has pretty big sample/weight.

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but really why should a Missouri poll swing it that much when we basically know Trump is going to win Missouri?

5% undecided for GA, if they split 4-1 Trump, he wins 48-44 in the three-way. Even if they somehow split 3-2 Clinton, it's a 46-46 tie. The way it would work out for Clinton is if Johnson gets a notable amount of late deciders, if we split it 3-1-1 (Clinton-Trump-Johnson), then Clinton ekes it out 46-45.

As you can see, Trump is probably still the favorite on some level in this state.

Yeah, I do think Trump is still in the driver's seat in GA. That 50-44 in the NC two way is devastating if accurate, though. He can't win without it, and the window is closing fast.