Re: UK General Election 8th June 2017

Originally Posted by Richardbouvet

My theory: May WANTS to lose her overall majority, so if the Brexit deal goes badly she can let parliament call the whole thing off.

This is a consolidation of power rather than a death wish for the Tories. Scotland is effectively lost and I think that May realises this. It is only a matter of both sides saving face. NI is also a major problem for the Tories in that the UK is economically supporting a lot of NI's economy. If this works for May, then the Tories will have destroyed the Labour party in the UK as the main party of opposition for a few election cycles and will also have consolidated the Tory vote.

Re: UK General Election 8th June 2017

Originally Posted by jmcc

This is a consolidation of power rather than a death wish for the Tories. Scotland is effectively lost and I think that May realises this. It is only a matter of both sides saving face. NI is also a major problem for the Tories in that the UK is economically supporting a lot of NI's economy. If this works for May, then the Tories will have destroyed the Labour party in the UK as the main party of opposition for a few election cycles and will also have consolidated the Tory vote.

Re: UK General Election 8th June 2017

What happens if the Lib Dems surge to the point where May needs them to form a coalition? Is that a victory or defeat?

This is a very likely outcome, or some parliamentary agreement with them.

If Lib Dems have a choice between a Labour on 270 seats or so(at best) and Cons at 300 or so it seems obvious who they will back.

It seems to me Lab would need a 10% rise in votes, a 12-13% rise in seats and the support of the SNP-actual votes, not just abstentions, to have any chance.

Corbyn is slightly more appealing than Miliband all round and generally more intelligent, better informed, more working class, but there are a lot of braindead English voters and the current 18th century voting system favours the stupid, the white middle aged male and the elderly-i.e. the racists, the wallies and the spivs who vote the most.

Re: UK General Election 8th June 2017

Originally Posted by random new yorker

friends in the UK seem to agree with you

The horror of it! Having friends who agree with me of all people. Still though it is a power consolidation move rather than a power play. There's a big difference. It is intended to keep and build on existing power rather than grab power from a position of having little or none.

classic Tory powerplay .. she wins either way

There's also an election expenses issue that may have forced her hand.

hopefully the LibDems get their sh&t together..

The problem with the UK electoral system is that it is a First Past The Post one rather than a proportional representation one. Thus it was possible for UKIP to have large numbers of votes but no parliamentary seats. The LibDems will be focused on trying to get votes from the Tory floating vote and from Labour. Labour is almost tearing itself apart over the Corbynite/Blairite situation.

Scotland may be considered lost territory by the Tories and this could be thought of as an attempt to destroy Labour as the leading opposition party. Without the massive Scottish vote, Labour is forced to rely on its support in England and Wales. There will be an attempt to turn Labour into primarily a London party with reduced support outside that region. Whether it succeeds is quite another thing. But Wales could be a very interesting battleground. NI is as opaque as ever to the Tories.

Re: UK General Election 8th June 2017

Originally Posted by Apjp

Curiously only older people and middle aged men were interviewed. Not one young person, not one woman younger than 60-98% of them were white.

These were the demographics that decided the last UK GE, which the pollsters and "commentators" got wrong, and Brexit, which the pollsters and "commentators" got wrong too. This time, the media isn't taking the same chances in ignoring them and talking to the fools in the London media and their friends when they should be talking to real people.

Re: UK General Election 8th June 2017

This is a very likely outcome, or some parliamentary agreement with them.

If Lib Dems have a choice between a Labour on 270 seats or so(at best) and Cons at 300 or so it seems obvious who they will back.

It seems to me Lab would need a 10% rise in votes, a 12-13% rise in seats and the support of the SNP-actual votes, not just abstentions, to have any chance.

Corbyn is slightly more appealing than Miliband all round and generally more intelligent, better informed, more working class, but there are a lot of braindead English voters and the current 18th century voting system favours the stupid, the white middle aged male and the elderly-i.e. the racists, the wallies and the spivs who vote the most.

The Local elections in 2.5 weeks will tell us a lot.

I think that scenario is still in the realm of the possible, rather than the probable.

Stereotyping again. Now tell us what you really think.............

As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.