Tag: eurasia

The arrest of Huawei’s global chief financial officer in Canada, reportedly related to a violation of U.S. sanctions, will corrode trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing, risk consultancy Eurasia Group said Thursday. “Beijing is likely to react angrily to this latest arrest of a Chinese citizen in a third country for violating U.S. law,” Eurasia analysts wrote. Canada’s Department of Justice said on Wednesday the country arrested Meng Wanzhou in Vancouver, where she is facing extradit

The arrest of Huawei’s global chief financial officer in Canada, reportedly related to a violation of U.S. sanctions, will corrode trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing, risk consultancy Eurasia Group said Thursday.

“Beijing is likely to react angrily to this latest arrest of a Chinese citizen in a third country for violating U.S. law,” Eurasia analysts wrote.

In fact, Global Times — a hyper-nationalistic tabloid tied to the Chinese Communist Party — responded to the arrest by posting on Twitter a statement about trade war escalation it attributed to an expert “close to the Chinese Ministry of Commerce.”

“China should be fully prepared for an escalation in the #tradewar with the US, as the US will not ease its stance on China, and the recent arrest of the senior executive of #Huawei is a vivid example,” said the statement, paired with a photo of opposing fists with Chinese and American flags superimposed upon them.

Canada’s Department of Justice said on Wednesday the country arrested Meng Wanzhou in Vancouver, where she is facing extradition to the U.S. The arrest is related to violations of U.S. sanctions, a person familiar with the matter told Reuters.

U.S. authorities have been probing Huawei, one of the world’s largest makers of telecommunications network equipment, since at least 2016 for allegedly shipping U.S.-origin products to Iran and other countries in violation of U.S. export and sanctions laws, sources told Reuters in April.

The analysts said the Huawei executive’s arrest will not derail the start of trade negotiations after U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping’s meeting last weekend in Argentina saw them agree to first steps to resolve their trade dispute. Still, they acknowledged, the incident involving Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei is likely to cloud talks.

Eurasia Group chair on Iranian cyber threat2:33 PM ET Wed, 25 July 2018Cliff Kupchan, Eurasia Group chairman, discusses the potential for cyber attacks from Iran as tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalate, as well as news that President Trump is postponing his next meeting with Russia’s Putin until 2019.

Cliff Kupchan, Eurasia Group chairman, discusses the potential for cyber attacks from Iran as tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalate, as well as news that President Trump is postponing his next meeting with Russia’s Putin until 2019.

However, Eurasia estimated that high-level talks between Trump and North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un would continue, but fall short of full denuclearization. “The longer-term outcome is de facto U.S. recognition of a nuclear weapons-armed North Korea,” the firm said, adding that North Korea’s sharper tone “clearly indicated that the old North Korea is alive and well” in spite of public goodwill between Kim and Trump. In fact, North Korea’s rhetoric is directed as much at China and South Korea as i

However, Eurasia estimated that high-level talks between Trump and North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un would continue, but fall short of full denuclearization.

“The longer-term outcome is de facto U.S. recognition of a nuclear weapons-armed North Korea,” the firm said, adding that North Korea’s sharper tone “clearly indicated that the old North Korea is alive and well” in spite of public goodwill between Kim and Trump.

“Whatever epiphany Kim did or did not have, he still needs to project strength to reduce pushback he might be encountering at home to his strategy of engagement with the U.S. and willingness to even discuss the possibility of giving up his nuclear weapons,” Eurasia’s analysts wrote.

“Kim also wants to ensure that the US and the world fully understand that he has no intention of giving away anything for free, or as quickly as the US might demand, but will instead work to ensure engagement proceeds slowly, with the US providing significant concessions throughout this process,” it added.

In fact, North Korea’s rhetoric is directed as much at China and South Korea as it is the United States, Eurasia Group’s analysts wrote.

“Kim’s tough stance also reflects Chinese President Xi Jinping’s efforts to both cultivate and play on his relationship with Kim and ensure that China remains a key player in negotiations,” it said. China is also eager to remind the U.S. that it needs Beijing’s help to manage Pyongyang, Eurasia group pointed out, as a trade war erupts between the two countries.

“Pyongyang’s warning that US demands might erode its willingness to denuclearize will intensify pressure on South Korean President Moon Jae-in to redouble efforts to keep the peace process on track,” Eurasia’s analysts wrote. “South Koreans want relations with the North to continue to improve, motivating Moon to keep expanding outreach to it or otherwise accommodate Kim to avoid him getting cold feet.”

Trump’s diplomatic gambit has been greeted with skepticism from all sides of the foreign policy establishment, amid deep skepticism that Pyongyang would willingly give up its nuclear arsenal. Indeed, a spate of recent reports suggest the regime is still at work beefing up various parts of its nuclear arsenal.

According to a report by 38 North, a website that tracks events in North Korea’s closed society, the government recently completed work on a cooling system for one of its reactors. Last week, The Wall Street Journal cited satellite imagery showing the North Koreans expanding a missile manufacturing facility in the city of Hamhung.

Earlier in the day, South Korean President Moon Jae-In and Kim pledged to jointly eliminate the risk of war and work together to achieve complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. Their joint statement came after the conclusion of a historic one-day bilateral summit aimed at achieving peace between the longtime adversaries for the first time in more than 60 years. However, she added, “It does nothing to change the long-term calculations of the North Korean leader about his need for a cre

Earlier in the day, South Korean President Moon Jae-In and Kim pledged to jointly eliminate the risk of war and work together to achieve complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. Their joint statement came after the conclusion of a historic one-day bilateral summit aimed at achieving peace between the longtime adversaries for the first time in more than 60 years.

Sumpter expects to see an easing of tensions and a growth in ties between the North and the South, as well as an uptick in the probability of prolonged negotiation and diplomacy over denuclearization.

However, she added, “It does nothing to change the long-term calculations of the North Korean leader about his need for a credible nuclear threat to ultimately protect his regime.”

Instead, she believes Kim is looking for a break from the financial pressure brought on by sanctions, as well as the need to buy time.

“Our sense is that Kim Jong Un has made the calculation that he likely can’t make a deal with this president and expect it to last,” she said, pointing to Trump’s threats to pull out of the Iran nuclear deal.

The U.S. has been negotiating a summit between Trump and Kim, which is expected to happen in May or June.

The world is moving toward crisis and a state of “geopolitical depression” as the presidency of Donald Trump accelerates divisions among citizens and the unraveling of the global order, risk consultancy Eurasia Group warns. “In the 20 years since we started Eurasia Group, the global environment has had its ups and downs. But if we had to pick one year for a big unexpected crisis — the geopolitical equivalent of the 2008 financial meltdown — it feels like 2018,” said Eurasia Group President Ian B

The world is moving toward crisis and a state of “geopolitical depression” as the presidency of Donald Trump accelerates divisions among citizens and the unraveling of the global order, risk consultancy Eurasia Group warns.

Liberal democracies are suffering from a deficit of legitimacy not seen since World War II, and today’s leaders have largely abandoned civil society and common values, Eurasia Group says in its annual assessment of top geopolitical risks. The breakdown in norms opens the door to a major event that could rock the global economy and markets.

“In the 20 years since we started Eurasia Group, the global environment has had its ups and downs. But if we had to pick one year for a big unexpected crisis — the geopolitical equivalent of the 2008 financial meltdown — it feels like 2018,” said Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer and Chairman Cliff Kupchan.

U.S. global power is “sputtering to a stall” as the Trump philosophy of retrenchment and unilateralism sows confusion among both allies and rivals, Eurasia Group says. The world now lacks leadership to steer it through the impending crisis.

“‘America First’ and the policies that flow from it have eroded the U.S.-led order and its guardrails, while no other country or set of countries stands ready or interested in rebuilding it … significantly increasing global risk.”

It’s not at all certain trump has support in Congress to amend Iran deal 14 Hours Ago | 01:49The legislative solution is “hardly a layup,” because it requires 60 votes to end debate and take a vote, according to Eurasia Group. That means Trump needs to hold all 52 Republican votes and attract eight Democrats. “It’s unclear if Trump can cross that threshold while hewing to his draconian proposals. The legislation could well morph into a softer version, leaving some room for consensus with the Eur

It’s not at all certain trump has support in Congress to amend Iran deal 14 Hours Ago | 01:49

The legislative solution is “hardly a layup,” because it requires 60 votes to end debate and take a vote, according to Eurasia Group. That means Trump needs to hold all 52 Republican votes and attract eight Democrats.

“It’s unclear if Trump can cross that threshold while hewing to his draconian proposals. The legislation could well morph into a softer version, leaving some room for consensus with the Europeans and Iran,” Eurasia Group said.

Congress will find it difficult to establish red lines that are not so brazen that Iran will not trip them on Day One, but are not so weak that they have no influence Tehran’s behavior, said Richard Nephew, lead sanctions expert for the U.S. team that negotiated the deal. If Congress draws a red line at Iran testing a ballistic missile capable of traveling a certain distance, its leaders could test one the next day and force U.S. lawmakers’ hand, said Nephew, now a senior research scholar at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy.

By establishing new red lines, the United States is telling Iran it cannot expand its nuclear program in a way that the 2015 international deal would have allowed, he said.

“You can’t legislate what a foreign country is going to do. We still at some point have to talk to the Iranians,” he said.

Saying he’s not in the business of breaking news, Bremmer told “Squawk on the Street” he decided to talk about it Monday evening with Bloomberg’s Charlie Rose to have a longer conversation as opposed to just making headlines. In a note to Eurasia clients Monday morning, Bremmer first disclosed the G-20 dinner meeting between Trump and Putin, which took place on July 7, just hours after the two leaders held their formal, two-hour bilateral meeting at the summit in Germany. Bremmer took issue with

Ian Bremmer, president of the political risk consultancy Eurasia Group, told CNBC on Wednesday he reported on a second, undisclosed G-20 meeting between President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin because “nobody else was going to break it.”

Saying he’s not in the business of breaking news, Bremmer told “Squawk on the Street” he decided to talk about it Monday evening with Bloomberg’s Charlie Rose to have a longer conversation as opposed to just making headlines. After that, the story went national.

In a note to Eurasia clients Monday morning, Bremmer first disclosed the G-20 dinner meeting between Trump and Putin, which took place on July 7, just hours after the two leaders held their formal, two-hour bilateral meeting at the summit in Germany.

The White House on Tuesday confirmed the second meeting, describing the encounter as “a brief conversation at the end of a dinner.”

Bremmer took issue with that characterization, and indicated others knew about the meeting.

The dinner meeting “might have been 55 minutes,” he told CNBC. “The people I talked to weren’t timing. It wasn’t five minutes. Brief implies it’s five minutes or 10 minutes.”

In details from the Eurasia note, Bremmer wrote about the sequence of events, according to his sources.

Halfway in [the dinner], Trump gets up from his seat, sits next to Putin, and spends roughly an hour talking privately and animatedly with the Russian president, joined only by Putin’s own translator. … Several notable pieces here. One, that Trump didn’t bring in his own translator — a breach of national security protocol Trump likely wouldn’t be aware of, but that significantly advantages the meeting towards Putin.

In a late Tuesday tweet, Trump angrily responded the story.

Bremmer told CNBC he didn’t think the meeting was “sinister” either, but said it showed a lack of experience and indifference on the part of Trump.

“He’s going to get played. He’s going to get played. That’s the concern,” he said.