Money Can’t Buy Love

Independent trader Chris Cady says the world’s greatest matchmaker, Match Group, has overpromised and under-delivered on more than just love. He discusses the flaws in the company’s business model, reviews the stock’s recent price action, and determines key levels to go short in this interview with Justine Underhill. Filmed on January 28, 2019.

Comments

Great video but he's missing many important social and legal factors that will lead to the decline in the price of companies like Match and others. The biggest social factor is the MGTOW philosophy which is now being followed by many men. MGTOW has risen in recent years in response to the unfair treatment of married men in the family courts and, on top of this, the weaponisation of MeToo in the workplace through frivolous and false harassment allegations. These factors amongst others will crush not only just dating stocks but many consumer goods companies who rely on marriage and family to keep people buying more and more products & services. Contrary to many comments below, this was a great topic that was discussed in the video and MGTOW will have huge consequences on society and companies. It is having consequences right now to be honest as the marriage rate is in freefall

This setup seems like it has no process, but rather based on feel. In terms of relative strength, MTCH has been outperforming the market. It is also above all it's major moving averages. While the trade might work, it would be luck as opposed to process and not for any of the reasons he cited (what about the massive debt this name carries?). When she asked if it was based on technicals or fundamentals, he never really answered. I would never take this trade based on the logic presented!

How many people are success on dating apps? Dating apps are crap. Lots of fake profiles. If the profile is real they are likely not single or not looking anymore. It is a money grab industry that uses emotions and psychology to part men with their money.

I know people who met their current spouses via on-line dating. No doubt there are lots of fake profiles but that only means there is a business opportunity somewhere out there to help users screen out fake profiles and avoid wasted time/grief!

Same as the medical industry which takes everyone's money because sickness and death involves emotions for all stakeholders be they family, doctors and big pharma and everyone scares the hell out of each other!

So the industry (& Match business model) over promises and under delivers but I wish he could have provided specific examples???
"According to a 2015 study by the Pew Research Center, 80% of the users, and 55% of non-users, said that online dating sites are a good way to meet potential partners" (wikipedia)

In think the story or narrative may be incomplete. So here's my stab at extending the analysis:
The whole point of any recurring revenue or Subscription as a Service (SaaS) business such as Match is to ensure customer retention and limit churn of your users. New users are expensive to bring on!
Perhaps, I am overly cynical, but from a business standpoint (i.e. Match Group's perspective) - the worst outcome is that a subscriber finds their ideal mate on MATCH platform and then quits being a paid subscriber! What business in their right mind would want that?
It sounds counterintuitive but to be financially profitable MATCH cannot deliver or meet their subscribers expectations (it would be like shooting yourself on the foot!!). Perhaps it's in their best interest to have subpar algorithms that pair you with people so that it doesn't work out and you remain a subscriber (i.e., keep returning).
To conclude - in the short run consumers and analyst aren't likely to realize this in the next month - so I'm not convinced with the outlined logic. But in in the long run (i.e. at least 18 months from now) people will figure this out (can't fool all the people all the time as Lincoln said).

A little all over the place. Probably should write up his thesis and have a colleague challenge him on it before presenting. Explain and separate fundamental beliefs from technical conversation. I look forward to his next appearance.

I agree with the other viewers, this trade requires more analysis, discussion of the innovation or lack thereof, and valuation metrics -- which we should all be doing before we invest. But big picture, this is a good idea in concept. I have several Gen-X friends that have tried and abandoned Match, and several Millennial friends that see Match as an outdated platform for old farts. To give Chris credit, the best days for Match could very well be in the past.

Do you all realize MTCH owns Tinder? Also eHarmony? And they have a majority stake in Hinge, the importance of which cannot be overstated. MTCH is in my top three highest conviction ideas. If they owned Bumble the stock would be 100+ easy. The analysis omits the value of these properties, not to mention the value of their data. Bet y'all didn't think about their data. They have a lot of it. Online dating is going up and to the right, big time. And don't forget about cheating, and swinging. Those pastimes aren't slowing anytime soon. Don't get caught out like Roger Stone buying ad's in the newspaper when you can go incognito on tinder. All of that said, I agree it is likely to retrace some of the recent move and coincidentally I bought some cheap insurance on my 250% gains in the stock today. I'll happily get more long if the market melts down, suggest you do too.

The least valuable segment on Real Vision to date. Pun intended. No technical charts, no financial data or ratios, relative or absolute valuation marks, no sound rationale. Some film should stay in the can - just because it's produced doesn't mean it must be published!

Just a theory: Due to Federal Marshalls shutting down prostitution listing service BackPage many free dating sites like CraigsList were also forced to shut down their personals area. Match may be benefiting from the reduced competition from free dating sights while perhaps also getting 'discrete' paid listings from prostitutes.