Under the weather: Welcome back, polar vortex

Feb. 24, 2014

Last month was the fourth-warmest January on record for the globe; records go back to 1880. Although it was colder than normal in the eastern U.S. and northern Siberia, all-time record warmth visited Greenland, Brazil and much of Africa. / National Climatic Data Center

Written by

Todd Hill

News Journal

The warmest temperatures of the week in Richland County actually occurred this morning. It will largely be colder than this through at least Sunday, and probably much longer. The polar vortex has returned.

Unlike in January, increased sun time – and a significantly higher sun angle – mean the cold this time won’t be nearly as frigid as it was six weeks ago. But we’re still looking at temperatures staying well below freezing, and about 20 degrees below normal, possibly through the first third of March.

Some of us may recall that last year, despite an unremarkable winter, spring was quite chilly and took a long time getting established. It now looks like we could see a repeat of that pattern this spring, although talk of a new El Nino in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, the first in years, forming by later in the spring could impact our weather in a warmer way a few months from now.

Turning back to the here and now, this morning’s snow flurries come courtesy of a little trough making its way through Ohio. It’s being aided by the fact that some of Lake Erie is now ice-free, primarily between Cleveland and the islands, so we’re getting a bit of lake-effect action today. Expect the lake to freeze right back up, however, with the return of Arctic air.

The past several forecast cycles have been very consistent about bringing in a low chance of light snow for our area overnight into Tuesday morning. We might see just enough snow to cover the ground at best.

Beyond that, however, this cold spell – at least through the weekend – looks like it will be high and dry, with no mention of any significant storm systems. Of course, the longer we stay below freezing the less likely it becomes that that luck will hold.

As of this writing, this February is just shy of ranking among the 10 snowiest Februarys in Mansfield weather history. And it currently ranks as our ninth coldest. With this last week of frigid temperatures, we can fully expect this month to go in the books as one of our 10 coldest Februarys on record.

Below are the weather statistics for Sunday, Feb. 23 at my location 4 miles north-northwest of Fredericktown, Ohio: