By now most CTH readers are familiar with the more notoriously biased polling manipulators.

One of those is Patrick Murray from Monmouth University [@PollsterPatrick on Twitter].

If you want to know where his political affiliations lie, you only need to read his twitter feed. Murray has also been on Fox News with Bill O’Reilly several times selling his polling results to the unwitting audience.

Monmouth just announced that Clinton leads Trump 43-39 in Ohio. But Pollster Patrick actually laid out what he did on pages 6 and 7 of the PDF.

He sampled 402 voters. In the unweighted sample, the split was 33.3R/29.3D/35.6I. With that split, Trump leads Clinton 41-39 in Ohio. But Pollster Patrick re-weighted it to a 29R/33D/37I split. Nothing else was re-weighted.

It’s obvious Murray didn’t expect to be called out on it – because when confronted with what he did, pollster Patrick Murray flat out lied.

You can do the math yourself and see that no “weighting” was done by “region, age, race, or gender” only by party ID.

Just as a reminder “weighting” is the term used for actually changing the raw data to reflect the “assumptions” the pollster puts into the anticipated turnout of the election.

Depending on the “assumptions” (guesses about who will vote), and the “weighting” therein, the entire poll outcome can be severely manipulated and even reversed.

Personally, I like to tell these pollsters to just “show their work“, you know – like your math teacher used to force you to do in school in order to get full credit for the assignment. At that point most of the pollsters run and hide because essentially their argument is reduced to “trust me“. Yeah, good luck with that… LOL.

This is not the first time Monmouth, via Patrick Murray, has intentionally done this; and it won’t be the first time Murray has been gobsmackingly wrong as an outcome when the election actually takes place. Just ask president Mondale.

But hey, it feeds a media narrative for a cycle or two… and, after all, that’s really the intent here.

The time of day, the neighborhoods, the voting history of the selected precincts, and on and on it goes. Not to even mention as CTH reminds us – who is paying for the poll?
I an 100% Trump and I am feeling pretty good. I can hear it, it is getting louder / liberal heads exploding, don’t get close, the smell is awful.

No way.
The main goal of a lowlife like this particular pollster is to lower the turn out rate of trump supporters. Full blast this turd, his company and company associates that pay to be associated w fraud.

This “dishonest poll” is like ALL THE OTHER Liberal Ones, who are “ginning up their results to show, the Criminal Hillary ahead.’ She can’t even get a crowd to her rallies, and shows up at the local pancake houses, and school gyms. Oh yeah, we believe those Other “honest pollsters-CBS, NBC, ABC, MSNBC’………….NOT! In the Tank for Hillary is all they are, and Liars Just Like “Her Royal Lowness”

We do not need Pollsters, especially those lying ones, including this Patrick Murray.
Just watch a Clinton Rally and a Trump rally going on in the same town or city. Example: Clinton Rally in TX , there are only 6 parking spaces occupied. The cameraman has a difficult time positioning his camera to avoid taking pictures of empty seats. Hillary has to pay ” seat fillers” to make it appear she is loved by people.
On the other hand, in a TRUMP Rally, people pay to get a seat. or at least get in a 10,000 people filled gym or auditorium.
Pictures say a thousand words, Pollsters say nothing but lies or their own opinion, which means nothing. We should abhor them not adore them or believe in them.
The difference between Trump and Hillary is enormous, not only opposite poles or an ocean divide, between evil and good. The people’s choice: A criminal and a lier, corrupt to the core, or a successful businessman, who loves America and its citizens

All over NE Ohio the only Clinton sign OI have ever seen say “Hillery for Prision” but there are TONS of Trump and now Trump/Pence Signs all over the place. There sure must be one hell of a lot of underground Clinton supporters around here.

The other question is what happens to Patrick Murray? Is his career finished as a result of being caught in a lie? Or will he simply just lie for the rest of his life? Do people who continuously lie or refuse to accept responsibility eventually die of cancer? Just wondering what others thought about this. I am trying to quit smoking, but I would like a ciggy to go outside and contemplate some more is the democratic hyperspycho babble!

My guess is the big guy from New Jersey.
He would be great. Hopefully he would be allowed to ” review ” all the lies made this past year and charge the culprits accordingly. Trump was on the right track when he said he wanted to bring back slander laws. Let the black folk imprisoned for dubious crimes out and fill the cells with the likes of Robby Mook

What? Are you crazy? Why would his career be over for lying. Just look where it has taken Bill & Hillary. Two of the most loved people walking the earth. If they came down the street on a donkey people would lay palm branches in front of them.

Lying has not Hillary so why would it affect Murray? She probably gave him a raise and promised not to put out a hit on him after the election! He better keep looking over both shoulders! The Clinton allies seem to have a ton of bad luck when their usefulness is over or if they seem to waiver! God forbid they actually get called to testify!

Of course, the CLINTON MACHINE, VIA THE CORRUPT CLINTON FOUNDATION.
Did you know the Girl Scouts of America and Feed the Children donated to the Clinton Foundation? Why would a charity donate to another Charity?. Something smells like a rotten fish or a sewer line gone busted. Why would anyone in his/her right mind, vote for Hillary.
It should be shut down, confiscate all the money from it, and distribute the money to REAL Charities.

Pay to rig the voting against Bernie through corrupt DNC tactics ☑️
Pay thugs to protest Trump rallies and to attack his supporters ☑️
Pay people to attend the DNC convention after 50% walk away in disgust ☑️
Pay for phony Twitter and Facebook followers ☑️
Pay for people to attend Clinton rallies ☑️
Pay for phony ads ☑️
Pay the MSM networks to twist the narrative ☑️
Pay Obama to use taxpayers’ $$ to support me in October ☑️

8. Pay to start rigging the election outcome ☑️

Please add your own comment to this list.

🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸 MAGA
“I am with you, I will fight for you, I will win for you. “

beat Biotch up on support for the Muslim Brotherhood and AQI, now ISIS. Make her Queen of Regime Change. How is her continuation of obamacare going to improve its 2.1% real GDP growth average and falling? How is her proposed tax credit for increased obamacare premiums going to work? Funding for the credit? What level of income does she and the Demsheviks consider wealthy?

Trump WILL win if all conservative Republicans go to the polls and votes. There are many constituencies that will be voting for Trump that usually vote for democrats, and many people who have NEVER voted will be turning out for Trump. If all of us vote, it is numerically impossible for the democrats to steal enough votes and commit enough voter fraud to win.

That is how Trump can win. You have to vote and get everyone you know to vote for Trump.

I did a “poll” I asked my 2 sisters and Brother who they are voting for ( rhetorical ) and they are ALL voting for Trump 100 % (thinking thinking… calculating ) so in my book including me that is Trump at 400 %.

Trumps better than Hillary shes 100% the end of America and 99% chance of the end of life on earth Trumps only 50% a danger he could surprsise everyone and fix everything to everyones benefit. Hillary wont fix a thing and yes id love to see a woman be president one day just not her shes an insult to women everywhere.

That narrative ended once it went from Republican vs Democrat to Trump vs Hillary. Fox couldn’t shut up about enthusiasm until Donald cleared the Republican field in May. Now, he’s finished, he’s lagging behind, and he’s unstable. Globalist snakes.

Not a chance…HRC has 80% of the nation’s electronic voting machines rigged to steal the election from Trump…Forget about voter fraud, its the voting machines… See the video Hacking Democracy (do Video Search for the hour long movie). There is no way to stop it and its undetectable… Warning: You will get sick (very sic) if you take the time to watch these,,,

So we might as well not vote then because the fix is in. I never believed there is wide spread voter fraud. The fact is the candidates who lost SUCKED and voter fraud is an excuse. Remember Mitt “I like the tall trees ” Romney? Give me a break.

Like I have been saying, every single site has to have a demoturd and a republcan count every single vote together, period. They will steal this election by doing this. Unless we demand that this takes place!!!

This post is one of the top posts of many top posts SD has done in my estimation.

I say that because to the average observer it shows how polls can be tweaked to show results the pollster wishes to get to and it shows why transparency of the methodology is so important for verification by others.

GOUSAAmer114 & Sundanace have done a great service four us statistics flunkies.

Anyone who was forced to take a statistics class in graduate school knows full well it is easy to manipulate data to serve your purposes. That Murray thinks there aren’t a lot of us former statistics students out there and can see thru his ruse, is rather comical. That’s today’s students that have been brainwashed…not those of us who actually learned to think, question and defend.

Liberals think tweaking actually changes reality. It’s their “secret”. Think the result, and it will magically happen. Same deal with global warming, transgender issues, national budget, QE forever, and on and on. They think they are invincible.

I contacted 50 friends and asked them who they would support in the Presidential Election.

Options were – Crooked Hillary* or Rock Star Trump*.

25 people went for Rock Star Trump.
15 people went for Crooked Hillary.
10 people were undecided.

I have re-weighted the poll using the following methodology:
Poorly educated (which happens to be 10), were removed.
Very highly educated (which happens to be 5), were removed.
An unsatisfactory answer (which happens to be 10), were removed.

Weighted poll results: Rock Star Trump 100% support.

I don’t know about you, but I think this is just as scientific as any of the other garbage polls were discussing! 🙂

This USED to be an acceptable methodology when cell phones did not exist in polling data, it was used to catch the youth vote of landlines.

But with cellphones and landlines, it makes no sense to do this. It actually skews the poll towards over sampling a specific subset of the youth vote, TEENAGE ADULTS (18-19).

In the months of June/July/August, who is most likely to be the youngest adult in the house? Recent high school graduates sitting around mom and dad’s house before they go off to college? Bingo! So it skews to this demographic of the youth vote.

The number 402 people are usually irrelevant when applied to statistical analysis because after a certain threshold, it becomes redundant and a waste of time/resources. In other words, once a threshold is met with regard to proper canvassing, that number will prove to be plenty qualified for a best-efforts sample and merely adding 99,598 respondents become superfluous. Thus, many fine and accurate polls range sample-size from 400-1,500 participants.

The answer is currently be readied for launch. It’s an app called Pollmole with the potential to poll millions in all 185,000 polling locations in the US. The video is rather long with frequent but good digressions. A very smart Trump supporter who intends to make elections fair again. [Prompt to 41 min to get to the good stuff]

My concern is that the powers that be will use these many manipulated polls, and the associated media narrative that Trump is losing in the swing states, as cover to fraudulently throw the election for Hillary. The people won’t question the election results because they will believe Trump was behind in the polls anyway. The “monster vote” will be covered up and the election stolen. Calling these phony polls out the in MSM by Trump supporters is going to be very important; as well, we must have reliable and independent exit polls on Election Day. I have always thought Trump can win this, but he needs to win in a landslide overcome the many obstacles we face in this rigged system. They stole the primary from Bernie, they will try to steal the general election from Trump.

Great spot by GoUSA and thank you Sundance for the PERFECT illustration of how easy it is to corrupt a poll.
Also, thanks to BLUTO, @fluffydogattack for helping me spread the word in central Florida for Trump.

What is for sure is that Murray weighed for voter registration as he stated. WHY?

There actually is not enough info presented in his table to know if he altered any other aspect of the poll like age, region, etc. We don’t know how he applies the weighing formula either.

The question is where did he get that info on voter party ID (and the other factors too)? Was it from 2012 or was it from current voter info? Was it plucked from air. Why would he alter it from the current sample?

Another troubling aspect of this poll is what was the screening criteria for likely voter? He claims that prior voting pattern was a part of it. What does that mean SPECIFICALLY? Is it the primary, the last election, the last two elections? We KNOW that Trump is bringing a lot of new voters in and old voters back. Are they being accounted for?

Murray is getting hammered in his twitter feed! Yeah GoUSA and Sundance.

For some reason, pollsters never call me. Yo Patrick. I just did a poll. The youngest in our household is our Yorkie. He was definitely a BREXIT fellow (naturalized american canine citizen) and on the Trump Train. Next comes Hubby and myself. Bleed Trump.

I’ve lived at my current address for 48 years and in the same county for 52. Neither my husband nor I have ever been polled yet we were always registered voters, so it isn’t like nobody knows we’re here. People I know who have been polled at one time or another say that they don’t answer truthfully if they answer at all. So that much for polling, pfffffft.

I’m supportive of weighting because it can yield more accurate results with fewer poll recipients, but it requires valid demographic data and I’m not convinced that Murray has it. 33.33% of the participants of his poll identified as Republican but he thought only 29% should be Republican, so their responses were downgraded. I also think he weighted on age, that he felt the 50+ age range was over-represented. But again, what data is he using for his weighting?

This is an unusual election year Pissed off people on both sides who are threatening to switch sides, more Dem than Republican I think. Also large numbers of independents/unaffiliateds who are drawn to Trump. I don’t think any prior year’s election data will be very accurate this year. And this year’s primary data is completely wonky because Kasich interfered and large numbers of Dems switch parties to vote in the Republican primary. According to the New York Times primary results page, 2,043,043 votes people voted in the Republican primary and 1,202,163 people voted in the Democratic primary. There are not that many more Republicans than Democrats in Ohio. 🙂

In the counties containing Youngstown and Steubenville, more than a quarter of the GOP voters in the March 15 primary had been Democrats, the new statistics show. Trump easily carried both counties, as well as several others with high Democratic crossover rates. […]

Ohio Republican Chairman Matt Borges noted that state GOP rolls swelled by nearly a million, putting the party’s registration at more than 2.2 million. That compares with 1.4 million for Democrats — 630,000 more than before the primary — marking one of the biggest gaps in modern Ohio history. About 115,000 of the new Republicans had been Democrats while fewer than 35,000 Republicans became Democrats.

So did more Dems switch to be Republicans so that they could vote for Trump or against Trump?

I don’t understand the Republicans switching to Dem. They didn’t need to switch to vote in the Dem primary. But Dems becoming Republicans .. I’m hoping most did so to vote for Trump because they hated the Dem choices.

Murray’s Florida poll was also weighted. He is expecting that 35% are Republicans and 30% are Democrats. But the Florida primaries reveal a different balance. Both Republican and Democratic primaries were closed, only Republicans could vote the Republican ballot and only Democrats could vote the Democratic ballot. 2,355,183 people voted in the Republican primary and 1,702,878 voted in the Democratic primary, that’s a ratio of 1.383. But Murray’s weighting demographics, Republican to Democrat, have a ratio of 35/30 = 1,166…. To get a ratio of 1.383 it would need to be something like 41/30, not 35/30. Did Murray underweight the Republicans? When Murray weighted for party he probably didn’t change the Republican responses much because the percentage of Republican participants matched his expectation of 35%. But if it should have been 41%, not 35%, then he would have had to upgrade the responses and Trump’s overall weighted percentage would have been higher, perhaps even beating Clinton’s.

However you slice it, looks like a very close election. It is very disappointing that so many people will vote for a criminal. We assume people would want jobs and prosperity but millions were corrupted by the “progressive” policies and simply prefer welfare checks and Medicaid. Free stuff with benefits vs. hard work with less benefits (like, unaffordable Obamacare) and you can’t do drugs. Yeah, that’s easy.

A poll can be manipulated to come out any way you like. People see polls and can and are influenced by them., (Hey nobody wants to vote for a loser do they?) People need to make up their own minds. It takes a pretty shallow mind to be “intimidated” by any poll. The only poll one needs is the one taken on election day. The results of that poll is pretty much right on!

The professor “doth protest too much”
Look Patrick :you got caught !
It’s a simple as that
don’t emulate Hillary and build on “The Lie ”
stand up & take it like a man !
If you don’t you’ll be hiding under that airplane wing in Bosnia for the rest of your career!

I believe ALL the polls are weighted to favor Hillary! The only polling firm I trust is Gravis Marketing who polls for One America News Network. There is ONE MAIN REASON that Donald Trump is not running away in the polls – it’s the # never Trump crown who in actuality should be # RINOs for Hillary. There are two letter signed by so-called “republicans” who say they won’t vote for Trump or the are supporting Hillary.

The people who signed these letters are obviously infected with Trump Derangement Syndrome, complicated by Trump Jealousy – both maladies spread by abject ignorance and malice. There are two groups of people who have this insidious affliction – the FAKE conservative leaders who know they are in eminent danger of losing their cushy seats at the public trough and might actually have to get a real job, and their lemming followers who will follow them right off the proverbial cliff. They know they can’t buy Trump, they can’t influence Trump, and they certainly can’t intimidate Trump. I submit that the polls showing Donald Trump’s unfavorable numbers are “cooked books” just like those coming out of Centcom on ISIS. Pollsters can get the results they want by properly (or improperly) phrasing the questions. In addition, many Trump supporters that I know avoid confrontation and simply say “I’m undecided” or “I won’t vote for Trump”. I have digital video surveillance of my home and grounds, but I do not advertise my political leanings from fear of being attacked once I leave my property. There have been many attacks on Trump supporters and fake conservative Trump haters are as much responsible as the opposition.

Donald Trump has been fighting this battle on many fronts. First, he had 16 opponents fighting for the Republican nomination. Now he is fighting those RINOs who lost, Hillary Clinton, the democrat party, the DNC propaganda wing called the media, and fake republicans who are working to maintain their power by electing Hillary Clinton. We have reached that point in time where Donald Trump is the Republican nominee to become President of the United States. There are two choices before us – Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton. If you can’t get behind Donald Trump to defeat Hillary Clinton, you are neither a Republican nor a conservative and it’s obvious that you are either a liberal socialist communist democrat or a lily livered, mealy mouthed, spineless, gutless, forked tongue, politically correct, double speak, do nothing, go along to get along, afraid of your shadow, girly man or manly woman, new castrati eunuch elite republican establishment phony. Those who claim to be Republican – former candidates, congressmen, senators, and activists – who don’t now support the choice of the Republican primary voters should be replaced. Every name you listed at the beginning of your program, and a multitude of others, should never again be referred to as a “Republican”, should be shunned by all conservatives, and denied any assistance from the party. There is NO reason to delay!

Some say that Donald Trump doesn’t have the political experience or temperament to be President – that he’s not “Presidential”. My question is simple! What has choosing candidates for President who are “Presidential” (as well as congressmen and senators) with political experience done for us?? OH, I forgot – soon to be 20 Trillion Dollars in debt, despised throughout the world, unable to defeat a terrorist group of 30,000 terrorists with the most powerful military in the world, unable to go to the toilet because of political correctness, and having to listen to or read posts from delirious inane, insipid twerps who think they are smarter than everyone else – Mitt Romney, Bill Kristol, George Will, Charles Krauthammer come to mind. All these “wizards of smart” said Trump would not be in the race very long and called him a clown. Who is wearing the funny face now?? In 2008 and 2012 everyone went to Trump Tower to beg for Donald’s endorsement, support, and money which he gave freely, including $350,000 to the Republican Governors Association. His endorsement was the most sought after of any Republican donor. It’s worth observing that as soon as he announced that he would run and use his money for his own campaign, THEY ALL TURNED ON HIM LIKE A PACK OF WILD DOGS. The reason is he’s NOT politically correct, he’s NOT afraid of them, he CAN NOT be controlled by them, and he CAN NOT be intimidated by them. The game is up, they are about to lose their positions of power over the people, and they are up in arms in an effort to stop him.

What does age, income, race, college degree or gender have to do with voting? Voters come from all walks of life. Get rid of this type of polling system. Go back to the original. Show your registered ID card, watch them mark off your name and take your Reg. card. Then get a paper ballot, vote and put it in a locked box with a slot. And a guard.

No more election rigging or having to give out private information, All that information is used for is the candidates, to see which demographics they should aim for in the next election. I have an ingenius idea. Why don’t they try aiming for all of America?

This is just another crooked democrat that lies like Hillary, Obama, and the DNC. The good part is that democrats are busted yet again.
Keep talking shit, but when Trump wins, maybe you’ll understand all the lies, crime and stealing from Americans that will be disclosed. Some of you want to be blind to the crime that has already spilled over from the Clinton’s and Obama. And even though the media is bias toward the Hillary and democrats, the news is still coming out. Hillary’s lies and deleting of emails, the busted DNC team, and the Americans that Hillary and Obama killed by not supporting them when they asked and needed help from our military are all out there for all Americans to see. The big news that was already started and released by the Wikileaks people found Hillary’s documents that she thought she had deleted, but was already copied by foreign countries is coming out and only the blind, stupid democrats like you will deny your own vision. Just wait for the new documents that are going to be released very soon and they are more of Hillary’s stealing and stuffing her and her husband’s pockets using The Clinton Foundation. The Clinton Foundation takes money from foreign countries, friend and foe, and has been doing this since Bill Clinton’s Presidency and while Hillary was Secretary of State. Last but not least, many of this and more is documented and confirmed from the Clinton’s 20 year friend Dick Morris in the book, Armageddon: How Trump Can Beat Hillary. Also, we must remember that Hillary’s neglect also got her friend the Iran scientist kill in his country. There is so much more from crooked Hillary that it cannot be documented in one place.

Please every one make your vote count. A vote for Trump is a vote for Trump. A vote for Hillary is a vote for Hillary. A person that votes for any other write ins are a Vote for Hillary. You are fed up with both of them and don’t vote, you just voted for Hillary. MAKE YOUR VOTE COUNT.
VOTE FOR TRUMP!!! This country will not stand if Hillary is elected.

Don’t get so bent out of shape by a poll making adjustments to a particular sample result. All reputable polls do it, in order to get a “representative sample” that will reflect the true population value of all likely voters, as of the date of the sampling. They have to make assumptions (usually based on past election turnouts/results) about who will actually vote in the election.

It might be ‘cute’ to argue that one poll or another is “biased”–but that’s absurd. Polls really only have one goal: to get it right. Polls are a business. A poll that is consistently off, or wrong, (based on actual election results) will not be in business very long.

The reason why different polls often show slightly different results is because of 1) random sampling error (which is always present, but can be estimated); and 2) differences in a particular poll’s model of predicting which respondents will actually vote, and in what proportions.

Taking an average of several polls by differing organizations will usually give you a better estimate of what’s really happening out there.

As we get closer to election day, most polls refine and enlarge their sampling, in order to get as close as possible to the actual election-day result.

Polls are not biased, in the sense that they want to promote a particular candidate or result. They all are trying to “get it right”—so they can stay in business.