Saturday, July 31, 2010

The next series of updates are for candidates with only three polls (or less) conducted in hypothetical 2012 general election match ups against President Obama. As such, the trend analyses for Tim Pawlenty, Ron Paul and Jeb Bush are more susceptible to wild fluctuations given the relatively scant level of data available compared to the four candidates (Gingrich, Huckabee, Palin and Romney) covered thus far. These are clearly cases where other variables -- presidential approval and state of the economy -- may be helpful in balancing out polls like the Politico internet poll. In the midst of many other polls, that survey merely appears as an outlier. It is still an outlier for a candidate with just a few polls against Obama, but in such a case, it serves as a distinct statistical anchor. In such cases, the straight average "feels" more trustworthy for the three candidates with more than one survey conducted against Obama.

That is true for Tim Pawlenty. The Politico survey underestimates both Obama's and Pawlenty's shares of poll respondents given the other data available. It is difficult to fathom, for instance, either Obama below 40% support or Pawlenty, despite a lack of national name recognition, mustering just more than 20% support. Now, to be completely honest, a simple average is just as susceptible to outliers, but the numbers for Obama are much closer to the range in which they lie against the Big Four prospective Republican candidates. Similarly, Pawlenty's numbers, while still low, are at least closer the level of support an unknown, yet named, Republican candidate.

More than anything, this may have been what spurred Pawlenty and his inner circle to produce and release the video FHQ mentioned on Thursday. The timing was a bit abnormal, but the intent is clear, despite nary a mention of a presidential race or 2012. And hopefully, it will serve as an impetus for other polling outlets to include Pawlenty in future surveys. Political junkies thinking of 2012 can hope so at least. Trips to Iowa certainly aren't hurting those chances either.

Thursday, July 29, 2010

FHQ has often said of the 2012 Republican presidential nomination aspirants that they are running for 2012, but have simultaneously wondered if some or all would actually be running in 2012. Well, Tim Pawlenty has turned whispers and political junkie wonderings into an overt running for 2012 with his new Freedom First PAC video.

We often talk around these parts about the frontloading of presidential primaries and caucuses, but the candidates do it too. I can't think of anything happening earlier in a given presidential cycle since Michigan and Arizona held first step caucuses in 1986 with 1988's GOP nomination in mind. This pre-dates even those moves. Look, neither Pawlenty nor the video say anything about 2012. However, this is an introduction. This is an action taken with something higher than merely fundraising for congressional and gubernatorial candidates as impetus. Normally, I'd shrug something like this off; especially given that it is happening during the usually (media) dead months of summer. This is the time of Gary Condit and shark attacks, not subtle presidential introductions. Yet, this is clever. It has been timed to make a splash but to do so so as to not overlap with the most intense part of the midterm election campaign. It is also timed to get someone who had less name recognition than the balloon boy to get his name out there before an actual announcement that could get lost amongst the bigger names early next year when the expected announcements will likely come.

There's a long way to go until 2012, and this may all be for naught. At the very least, though, it has given those of us who follow such things, something to talk about.

Speaking of Pawlenty, FHQ will have a 2012 trial heat poll update for him later.

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The last of the Big Four routinely brought up the rear in terms of performance against Obama relative to the other three (Huckabee, Palin and Romney) during 2009. So far behind did the former speaker lag that Public Policy Polling dropped him from consideration. However, the Georgian did so well in some of the surveys of early primary/caucus states that they brought him back in 2010.

Not unlike the other three, Gingrich has seen President Obama's support dry up in these monthly glimpses into the state of the 2012 race. But it isn't all about Obama trailing off; Gingrich has crept up as well. His polling average is right on 40%, but his time-adjusted estimate brings the former speaker closer to Obama. Gingrich does not fare as well as Huckabee or Romney, but bests Palin against Obama. He settles in just in between both extremes. What is lacking on Gingrich is that there are fewer polls and that PPP surveys make up three-quarters of the data on him. Now, to be fair, PPP makes up the majority of all the candidates' data, but some more variation would likely be helpful. As with the other candidates*, most of the non-PPP polls show Obama with a larger lead. Rasmussen is the exception. But Rasmussen has not asked the Gingrich question yet. Perhaps that will change as we near 2011 and the time when presidential announcements begin to be made.

Wednesday, July 28, 2010

Among the four candidate who are surveyed most frequently in hypothetical 2012 general election match ups against President Obama, Mitt Romney does the best. [Yes, that spoils the Gingrich results on some level, but so be it.] The former Massachusetts governor's numbers are on par with Mike Huckabee's as measured by both the straight average of polls conducted and the regression trend estimate, but Romney actually leads Obama in the latter -- the only candidate to do so. While Romney tended to keep Obama's level of support at low levels as compared to most of the other Republicans polled, the 2008 presidential candidate also failed to muster much support of his own during the first half on 2009. Since July of last year, though, Romney has fared far better against Obama compared to the other Republicans across a variety of polling houses.

That consistency across polls has boosted Romney, whereas his closest competitor -- at least by our measure -- Mike Huckabee has been very consistent in the Public Policy Polling surveys while lagging in other polls. Again, that speaks toward Romney's inching upward more than it speaks to Huckabee falling. For all intents and purposes, the two hold a very similar position in relation to Obama in a potential general election race. Romney has some establishment support within the Republican Party, perhaps even similar to what McCain enjoyed in 2008. However, Romney looked good heading into the 2008 primary season too only to fall by the wayside once McCain was able to string together victories in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida heading into the pivotal Super Tuesday states. He will have to show a lot of establishment support if he wants to avoid that fate again.

I won't dwell on these results. More than anything, they simply maintain the status quo: Romney looks good in New Hampshire. Ho hum. However, I will add one note of caution. This was a survey of Republican voters in the Granite state. It does not in any way account for the mass of independents that will surely participate in the Republican primary with Democrats idle in 2012. The argument could be made that Romney would benefit even more from the inclusion of independents. Yet, New Hampshire primary voters have been known to be, oh, I don't want to say quirky, but willing to take a flyer on someone other than the frontrunner. While there is no definitive frontrunner for the Republican nomination at this point, Romney is the New Hampshire frontrunner and that gains him some points in laying claim to that tag at the national level.

Speaking of Romney, FHQ will have an update -- with graphics -- of his trial heat numbers against Obama later today.

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Tuesday, July 27, 2010

How does the former Arkansas governor and 2008 presidential candidate fare against Obama? We are far removed from concerns over gubernatorial commutations of late 2009, but less distance is between those following the prospective 2012 race and talk of Huckabee sitting it out. Indeed, Huckabee has recently reminded those following the 2012 frivolities from this great distance that he does quite well in polls against the president in those hypothetical match ups. There is truth to that notion. The 2008 GOP nomination runner up has consistently been the best positioned Republican in most polls that survey him alongside Palin and Romney (and less frequently Gingrich) against Obama, yet one doesn't get the feeling that the elites within the Republican Party are all that enamored of Huckabee much less his chances for the nomination in 2012 or the general election against Obama. [In fact, Romney, among those named as 2012 possibilities, most strongly holds that distinction.]

Here, though, is Huckabee very closely matched against Obama in polls in 2009 and 2010. If you scroll below to the time series regression, it is evidence of a trend toward parity among the two men in a future race. Still, very much like Obama in 2006-2007, Huckabee is in the position of needing early primary/caucus wins in 2012 to legitimately enter the discussion. The establishment is not behind him like Romney, nor is there as much grassroots passion behind him as Palin commands. That is not a good combination despite good numbers. Unlike Romney, Huckabee cannot lean on the "I'm the better general election candidate" if it is a Palin-Huckabee argument. He doesn't have either of the establishment or grassroots pieces of the nomination puzzle. The former governor has to hope to catch lightning in a bottle again and win Iowa to force the issue.

As FHQ has not updated its 2012 presidential trial heat poll graphics since December, there is a lot of catching up to do. And what better place to start than with the most talked about candidate, former Alaska governor Sarah Palin.

Let me make a few notes before diving in to all of this. First of all, I will spare you the mess of all the candidate data being dumped into one post by splitting this up into one post per candidate. We'll start with Palin and move on to the other candidates who have been surveyed multiple times in a hypothetical match ups against the president. I don't know whether I'll continue this practice in the future, but it makes sense in trying to synthesize all of the data from the first half of 2010. One addition I have made here is to add a table with all the past numbers included (dates, sample sizes, margin of error, etc.). [You'll find that at the conclusion of the post.] Such an inclusion likely works against the traditional -- all candidates in one -- presentation of the data if kept permanently (and I think it should be. There is too much data now not to.). The best course of action in future is likely to have timely breaking news-type updates when new polls are released followed by updated graphics for each candidate and finally a post discussing the trends across all candidates. That is how we will procede in the short term anyway.

There are a few other things to mention as well. Obviously, things are getting bunched up with so many polls having been conducted in the cases of some candidates. This is most problematic in terms of reporting the polling firms on the figure itself. It is really pronounced in the case of Obama v. Palin. I doubt this practice will be able to survive for much longer. FHQ is currently looking into some Flash- and Java-based alternatives that will allow users to simply hover over a data point on the graph and receive the attendant information. I'll keep you posted on that progress and in the meantime, if anyone has suggestions on how to do that relatively quickly and easily, please just drop a note in the comments section or shoot me an email.

And what of Obama and Palin?

For the sake of brevity, FHQ will confine this catch-up analysis to the overall trend throughout 2010. A poll-by-poll analysis eight months into the year seems like overkill. Public Policy Polling has surveyed this match up every month since March 2009 and as such is by far the most consistent player on the 2012 polling front. Palin has fairly regularly brought up the rear compared to the other three regulars (Gingrich, Huckabee and Romney) against Obama and yet, she, like the others has seen her share of respondents increase in 2010 as Obama's approval has declined. The one noticeable trend is that Palin does better in the PPP (and Rasmussen) surveys than she does in polls conducted by other firms. That is likely to elicit the classic robo-call versus live (phone) interview debate among some, but with so few polls from other outlets, FHQ will simply rate it as something to keep tabs on in the future. Palin's PPP presence has shifted from consistently in the 30s in 2009 to consistently in the 40s in 2010. Other firms are more likely to find her in the 30s in 2010.

The bottom line in this hypothetical match up is that Obama stays closer to 50% against Palin than he does against any of the other regular GOP names in the presidential race. I'll dispense with the straight averages comparison -- it is included in the table below -- but will mention the regression time series. Taking that trend into consideration, Obama leads Palin 49-41. That is all well and good, but none of this particularly matters until and unless the Republican nomination race in 2012 boils down to a two person race where general election electability becomes the argument a la Obama v. Clinton in 2008.

Wednesday, July 21, 2010

This is yet more evidence of the alteration to the invisible primary since the advent of the internet. Websites have given way to blogs have given way to social networking sites. Throughout this evolution candidates have become better able to circumvent the media and talk directly to supporters or interested passersby. Sarah Palin has used both Facebook and Twitter to great effect

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Friday, July 16, 2010

The talk of the evening and this morning -- at least on the 2012 presidential front -- is the discrepancy between the Public Policy Polling survey on 2012 general election scenarios (FHQ mentioned the numbers from it yesterday.) and a new national poll from Time Magazine. The point of overlap -- again with 2012 in mind -- is the Barack Obama versus Sarah Palin question.

Here's PPP:

Obama: 46

Palin: 46

Not sure: 9

And here's Time:

11. If the presidential election were held today and the candidates were Barack Obama, the Democrat, and Sarah Palin, the Republican, and you had to choose, for whom would you vote? (Only registered voters responding)

21-0. That's a large gap. FHQ natural inclination in a situation like this is to split the difference and move on. None of this is without caveat. PPP has conducted a national 2012 trial heat poll between Obama and Palin every month since March 2009. The Raleigh-based polling outfit, then, has established something of a baseline in this hypothetical race. But there has been some variability in those polls as well. Things were similarly tight between the two candidates back in Aprilbefore jumping back into the high single digits in May and to ten points a month ago.

So, before saying the true, yes hypothetical, lead is 10 points and moving on, allow FHQ one last comment. Tom Jensen said it best in the wrap up to his post on the poll's highlights a day ago. I'm paraphrasing here: Perhaps we'll look back on this time and see this as an aberration for Obama or the point at which the wheels really began falling off. That's true. One thing is for certain though and this hasn't really been talked about enough. No other Republican candidate can solidify the Democratic base better than Palin. To be sure, she can perhaps do a good job of unifying the Republican Party as well. Her presence on the ballot would do wonders for the oft-cited enthusiasm gap that the GOP holds in terms of voter turnout during 2010 (and maybe 2012 as well). It would neutralize it. What Palin has to do if she is serious about a run at the White House is figure out the formula for adding independents. Until the former Alaska governor can do that consistently, the true gap between her and Obama will likely stay in that high single digit to 10 point range. If Obama keeps trending downward, that won't hurt Palin's cause.

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Thursday, July 15, 2010

Public Policy Polling [pdf] today released the numbers on their monthly national survey on the 2012 presidential election. From all indications, President Obama is losing independents; something that has been seen in recent approval numbers as well. Obama trails (Gingrich, Huckabee, Romney) or ties (Palin) all four of the major Republican candidates.

Obviously 2012 is a long ways off and the immediate relevance of these numbers is limited. It's possible we'll look back on polls like this 28 months from now after Obama's been reelected and laugh. But it's also possible that we'll look back on the summer of 2010 after he's been defeated and see it as the time when his prospects for reelection really took a turn for the worse. For now there's really no way to tell.

No way to tell indeed, but those traditional indicators of presidential electoral success -- presidential approval and the economy -- certainly aren't hurting the GOP's prospects at the moment.

[Note: I hope to have an update of the monthly graphs up sometime this evening, but if not, they'll be up in the morning. As I mentioned on Twitter yesterday, FHQ is woefully behind on those figures. Rest assured, it is on our To-Do list.]

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Wednesday, July 14, 2010

Loyal FHQ readers (and perhaps some passersby) have certainly noticed that output on the blog has been way down this year. In addition to completing my dissertation on, you guessed it, frontloading during the spring semester, I've had some other things going on and I'm currently in yet another summer of transition after my temporary tenure at Wake Forest ended in June. That said, there has been no shortage of things to talk about and I want to apologize for not being around to provide commentary and fill the void. [Well, there has not been any void in chatter concerning politics, but FHQ has been relatively quiet.]

If you have continued stopping by you have noticed several changes. First of all, when Blogger rolled out its custom design feature in June, I jumped at the chance to update the simple and, I think stagnant, FHQ look. That was the biggest visual change since we added the left-hand sidebar during 2008. The new look is obviously still simple, but it is a little sleeker and adds the background image behind the large white slate that dominates the page.

In the last month, FHQ has also become a presence on Facebook. Personally, I don't have that large a presence on the social networking site, but far be it from me to deprive FHQ readers who do use Facebook frequently from using that tool as a means of getting their FHQ fix.

There is a button (see above) underneath the Twitter section on the right side that you can click on to access the FHQ Facebook page. Once there, click "Like" next to Frontloading HQ at the top to add the page to your News Feed. All blog posts are automatically added to the site and most tweets -- those not retweeted from my phone -- appear there as well. It ends up being a nice storehouse of FHQ material and is quiet handy if you are already on Facebook (and a lot of people are...a lot).

Finally, I've also made it easier to share FHQ content on other sites. At the conclusion of every post you will see a host of tiny buttons you can click on to share content at other sites (Facebook, Twitter, Reddit, Digg, Google Buzz, etc.). All you have to do is click on one of those to do so. And hey, there's even a Facebook Like button down there as well.

I'll probably bug people about Facebook (and Twitter for that matter) by reminding you of the addition at the conclusion of each post for the next couple of weeks. You've been warned. [Oh, it will stop soon enough.] Yeah, I think I've sold out a bit to be quite honest with you.

Tuesday, July 13, 2010

Last Friday FHQ openly doubted that the Democratic Rules and Bylaws Committee would set dates for the four exempt states in the presidential primary process. As I said then, I thought it would be more likely that the committee would set the parameters around which those states could place themselves. Alas, the committee chose specific dates. In my haste to get the notice of the impending meeting out to FHQ readers, I failed to adequately consider even recent historical precedent.

Just four years earlier, the Rules and Bylaws Committee acting on the recommendations of the Levin Commission opted to do the same thing. But back then, January primary dates were still allowed. Here's the timing breakdown from the highlights of the 2008 rules:

The new schedule is as follows:

Iowa holds the first-in-the-nation caucus on January 14.

New Hampshire holds the first-in-the-nation primary on January 22.

Nevada conducts a caucus between Iowa and New Hampshire on Saturday, January 19.

South Carolina holds a primary 1 week after the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday, January 29

The regular window will open for all other states on the first Tuesday in February -- February 5, 2008.

Now, of course, Florida and Michigan came along and threw a monkeywrench into even the best laid plans. Obviously, New Hampshire balked at Nevada's caucuses being ahead of the primary in the Granite state, but it wasn't until after Florida's move -- or the early progress of the billto move the Sunshine state's primary in the legislature -- that that January 22 date was truly threatened. [Granted New Hampshire Secretary of State, Bill Gardner, did issue an early 2007 statement that New Hampshire would stick with its date if Iowa stuck with theirs.] What kept the ball rolling on the pre-window movement was the South Carolina Republican Party's response to Florida's potential move. To be sure, SCGOP chair Katon Dawson's threat of an October 2007 GOP primary in the Palmetto state was pure bombast, but it was enough to stir an already unsettled primary calendar hornets nest.

It isn't any earth-shattering news that there was movement -- a lot of movement -- on the 2008 calendar, but some of this pre-window jockeying often gets lost in the shuffle. It all becomes very SamandEric (the twins) from Lord of the Flies. In this case, though, it's FloridandMichigan. The bottom line is that the parties can make all the rules they want, but the states will decide whether they want to go along with them or not.

For the record, here are the dates where the Democrats have proposed the four exempt states (Trust them at your own peril.):

Iowa: February 6

New Hampshire: February 14

Nevada: February 18

South Carolina: February 28

Everyone else: March 6 or after

FHQ was 50/50 in guessing the possible dates. In an earlier post, I guessed Iowa and New Hampshire correctly, but missed on Nevada and South Carolina. Of course, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to guess that Iowa and New Hampshire would be placed on the earliest allowed dates that keep both in February and with an eight day cushion between them.

And now we wait.

...for national party approval.

...and the states' reactions throughout next year.

[AUTHOR'S NOTE: It was funny to look back at some of those 2007 posts in putting this one together. That was during the very early days of FHQ and I daresay few people outside of me and perhaps a few others have ever seen them. No one is ever that bored.]

Monday, July 12, 2010

Over the weekend the Democratic Rules and Bylaws Committee reconvened in Washington (yes, sans FHQ) to further cement the rules governing the 2012 Democratic presidential nomination. The set of rules coming out of this meeting will go before the full DNC in St. Louis next month for approval. In its initial meeting in May, the committee made quick work of the most of the rules -- only tweaking some of the particulars from the 2008 rules -- but following discussion, tabled most of the more contentious issues that concerned some of the recommendations made by the Democratic Change Commission. Namely, what to do with the superdelegates' influence, how to make more uniform the caucus process across states, and how to curb frontloading. For our part, FHQ will focus on the last of those in this initial post, but will return to the other issues later. [Side note: And yes, I do need to put this all together with the changes the Republicans have proposed as well. FHQ has neglected the much more interesting and consequential Republican rules-making process. Amends will be made, I assure you, dear readers.]

Now, some have called the rules recommendations that came out of the this meeting and the earlier Republican meeting, the "most significant alteration to the primary calendars since '68..." The McGovern-Fraser reforms fundamentally reshaped the way in which presidential nominees were chosen from that point forward. They turned presidential primaries and caucuses from non-binding contests meant to influence party leaders at the national convention into binding contests that determined to some degree the level of support candidates would receive at the convention. The primary calendars after that point evolved, and though the negative effects of frontloading were being discussed as early as the Hunt Commission (the pre-1984 cycle's equivalent of the Democratic Change Commission), it took until 1988 and into the '90s for the full effects of McGovern-Fraser to be felt in terms of the calendar. And, of course, these were unintended consequences of those reforms.

Perhaps you can tell, I don't particularly like the comparison to the 1968 Chicago convention's reform measures. FHQ also has another problem with this comparison.* As I alluded to above, it overstates matters. Both parties have recognized frontloading as a "problem" for several cycles now. And it is no small feat that both the DNC and RNC determined that the best way to combat the problem was to work together, representing a unified front against would-be rule breakers (Florida and Michigan, I'm looking in your direction.). That fact alone is significant in and of itself, but this process is only in its first phase: rules formation. The national parties will have to ratify those changes in order to end this part of the cycle.

The next phase will play out through much of next year. It is one thing to institute new rules, but it is another to have the states go along with those changes. A good first step is to have both parties on the same page, but Florida and Michigan (and all the pre-February 5, 2008 states but Nevada and Iowa on the Republican side) may have set a precedent in 2008. And with so many states having to move the dates on which their primaries are held to comply with the new rules, there is more incentive than ever to shirk.

That was the real message that came out of all of these meetings on both sides. Both parties are together in terms of their calendar set ups, but the sanctions did not change in the least from 2008. Yes, the Democrats bumped up their incentives for states electing to hold later contests, but that has proven ineffective in the past. The true effect of one of those 2008 sanctions likely won't be felt until 2012 anyway. That the Democrats stripped candidates of half their delegates if they campaigned in a state in violation of the timing rules was very crafty. It kept Obama and Edwards among others out of Florida and (they took themselves off the ballot in) Michigan. That has the effect of making a state meaningless or at least far less influential than otherwise. And that penalty is back for the 2012 cycle. States might have thought twice about flaunting the rules if that sanction was in place on the Republican side. Of course, it is a Democratic sanction and I doubt it will matter much if the Democratic Party strips Obama of half his delegates in a state in violation (they won't). With all the action on the Republican side, a promising sanction won't mean a whole lot.

As I said over the weekend on Twitter, it only takes one state to unravel the best of intentions and trigger a calendar somewhere between what the parties want and where things were in 2008. So, while tweaking the timing of contests is unique in the post-reform era, it isn't that fundamental a change in the grand scheme of things and certainly won't be if states don't comply.

*Another issue is that the parties did voluntarily change their rules to allow January and February contests over the last decade and a half. That was at least an equivalent change to what has been proposed for 2012 (proportionality rules excluded).

Friday, July 9, 2010

Setting the 2012 calendar: There’s another meeting to watch today -- this one in D.C. At 1:00 pm ET, DNC’s Rules and Bylaws Committee meets, and it’s expected that they’ll vote on dates for the pre-window states (IA, NH, SC, NV) and reducing the influence of superdelegates.

FHQ doubts very seriously that the R&B selects the dates for the four exempt states. They might set the parameters from which those states will make their choices, but they won't set the dates. Each will wait as late as possible in the process (next year) to finalize those dates -- to ensure that they are as safe as possible at the beginning of the process.

We haven't touched base with Frank Leone at DemRulz, but he is expected to be on-site today and tomorrow. Check in there for updates and here for some ex post facto thoughts on the full meeting on Monday.