Turkey GDP

Turkey: Economic growth falls to three-year low

December 10, 2012

In the third quarter, GDP rose 1.6% over the same quarter the previous year. The reading represented a deceleration compared to the revised 3.0% expansion recorded in the second quarter (previously reported: +2.9% year-on-year) and marked, in fact, the lowest growth rate recorded in three years. In addition, the figure undershot market expectations, which had anticipated a 2.5% rise.

The slowdown in the third quarter was caused by a deterioration in the external sector. Exports of goods and services rose 11.9%, well down from the 20.9% increase recorded in Q2. Meanwhile, imports improved somewhat, declining 2.4% in annual terms (Q2: -3.7% yoy). As a result, the net contribution from the external sector to overall growth fell from 6.0 percentage points in the second quarter to 3.5 percentage points in the third.

In the domestic sector, private consumption contracted 0.5% over the same period last year (Q2: -1.0% yoy), while gross fixed investment fell 7.6%, broadly unchanged from the 7.2% decline recorded in the second quarter.

A quarter-on-quarter analysis corroborates the slowdown suggested by annual figures, as GDP grew only 0.2% over the previous quarter in seasonally and calendar-day adjusted terms, a fraction of the 1.7% expansion recorded in Q2.

The government anticipates economic growth to reach 3.2% in 2012.

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The current account balance recorded a USD 4.2 billion deficit in November, above market expectations of USD 4.0 billion, and a sizeable increase from the USD 2.2 billion shortfall recorded in November 2016.