Dallas Stars Blog

What better time to re-examine the James Neal trade than today?

Former Stars winger James Neal was named to participate in the NHL All-Star Game today, and current Stars defenseman Alex Goligoski signed a four-year contract extension on Monday. So those events are just begging us to re-examine the trade that had the two players swapping teams last February, don’t you think?

That Neal wasn’t already named to be an All-Star is actually surprising, seeing as his 27 goals are tied for second in the NHL with Chicago’s Jonathan Toews (behind Tampa Bay’s Steven Stamkos). But the fact he will now be there as a replacement for Alexander Ovechkin speaks to his ability and his potential. At age 24, Neal is one of the league’s up-and-coming stars. He should be around the All-Star Game for many years moving forward.

And that’s a pretty big commodity to give up.

But the Stars knew that when they made the trade. Neal scored 24 goals in 2008-09 and 27 in 2009-10. He did that while logging an average of 17:12 a game and with no real time on the first power play unit. In 2009-10, Neal was sixth among Stars forwards in power play ice time at 2:45 per game. His stats reflected that as he had two power play goals and eight power play assists for 10 points in 78 games.

This season with Pittsburgh, Neal is averaging 4:14 on the power play and he has 13 power play goals and six power play assists for 19 points in 49 games.

Shocking, eh?

Well, there are a couple of variables that have to be considered. One, he’s playing a ton of hockey with Evgeni Malkin, who might be one of the best play-makers in the NHL. Two, the Penguins average 6:15 in power play time per game (6th in the NHL), while the Stars average 5:30 (24th). So, he clearly is a more dangerous player than he was on the Stars.

But, this brings into question some very interesting issues.

Should the Stars have seen this potential and had him on their top power play unit for the past three seasons? And should they have considered keeping him and pairing him with Jamie Benn? Like Malkin, Benn wants the puck. Like Malkin, Benn can create space for a player who can get open. Maybe the fit wouldn’t have been bad at all.

One of the reasons that Neal was moveable last February was because Benn looked so good on the left wing and Brenden Morrow had a space carved out at the left wing. That just made a very jammed area with left-handed shots who did a lot of the same things. When the deal was done, we all just saw it as taking from an area of strength to patch an area of weakness.

And Goligoski has made the defense better. He is a very talented skater, he makes good decisions, I believe he will embrace his leadership role, and I really think he’s going to be an important part of this team going forward. He’s only 26, and his four-year contract extension at $4.6 million a season seems reasonable for a guy who should log big minutes when this defense is finally put together right.

But that also speaks to another part of trying to judge this trade right now. While Neal’s minutes have gone up and his opportunity has gone up, Goligoski has trended down recently. When he came in last season, coach Marc Crawford rode him to the tune of 26:04 per game and watched him produce 15 points (5G, 10A) in just 23 games. This season, Goligoski is averaging 22:38. Yes, he leads all Stars players in power play time on ice per game at 3:32 (a full 38 seconds more than second place), but the Stars are not a team that draws many power plays or succeeds on them very much.

And that skews the appearance of the trade somewhat.

Bottom line, the Penguins desperately needed a player like Neal and they knew how to get the most out of him. That’s huge for them, because the guess is that Neal couldn’t produce those power play minutes or numbers in Dallas. It just wasn’t possible this season. Conversely, the Stars are still learning how to use Goligoski.

So, in retrospect, both sides have reasons to have made the trade, both sides seem happy with what they got, and that should be enough, right?

Maaaayyyyyybbeeeeeee…but hockey fans (and sports writers) just can’t let things go like that. Someone has to win, someone has to lose, and we always figure there’s a better way to do things. If you look at how Pittsburgh pulled off this deal, they gained a lot. They solved their need for a goal-scoring winger and also added a serviceable NHL defenseman in Matt Niskanen. Now, everyone in Starsland was ready to get rid of Niskanen, but that doesn’t mean he didn’t have value in the league. He was an asset, and the job of a GM is to manage assets.

So the question many Stars fans have now is whether or not the Stars should have received more in return for Neal and Niskanen? It’s a fair question. Two days before that trade, St. Louis moved Erik Johnson for Kevin Shattenkirk and Chris Stewart. Would Shattenkirk and Stewart have helped the Stars more than Goligoski? Would St. Louis have made that deal?

Later, Minnesota traded defensman Brent Burns. More recently, Phoenix moved center Kyle Turris. Could either of those players help the Stars more than Goligoski? Could Niskanen have been packaged by himself to get more from that asset?

We don’t know really, because so much goes into making a trade, but it’s fin to speculate right now and play armchair GM.

My take on this is it could be one of those trades where the winner changes each season depending on the performances of the individuals. Neal is in a great place and could have great numbers going forward, but he also could be inconsistent. Goligoski started slow this season, but he is coming on and really could become the key to the Stars defense going forward.

Pittsburgh looks like a clear winner right now. It’s just that a trade of players this young will have to be judged over the next decade.