In Wisconsin, all eyes are on Ryan

Ryan, the House Budget Committee chairman, undoubtedly holds the first right of refusal in the newly open Wisconsin Senate race. Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus and National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn have already spoken to him about the prospect. His rising stardom would almost guarantee him to be a prolific national fundraiser. And even Democrats who loathe his ideology acknowledge he’d be a substantive, formidable opponent.

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While he’s divided the country with a transformative budget blueprint, there’s virtual unanimity in political circles that his entry into the race for the seat being vacated by Sen. Herb Kohl would define the contest and thrust Wisconsin into the spotlight as a nationally watched bellwether.

Even former Gov. Tommy Thompson, who’s made clear that he’s interested in a run, is deferring to Ryan. But Thompson has now indicated that if Ryan chooses not to run, he’ll be getting into the race.

The 41-year-old square-jawed, telegenic congressman whose controversial fiscal plan has set the current terms of debate in Washington will reveal this week whether he’ll pursue the seat being vacated by the four-term Kohl next year.

But operatives from Wisconsin to Washington say they would be surprised if he took the plunge.

“I think a quick decision means he’s less likely to run. He’s only five months into his dream job as Budget Committee chairman. Why throw that away? No need to drag this on; it’s a distraction from his important work,” said Wisconsin Republican consultant Chip Englander.

“The buzz is he is leaning against the Senate race,” said Wisconsin GOP operative Bill McCoshen.

“It is very unlikely he runs,” said a Washington Republican operative. “Good thing for us, he is going to decide very quickly.”

While an open Senate seat would tempt any ambitious politician, a decision by Ryan to pass wouldn’t surprise those who know him best. He’s embroiled in a high-stakes battle over his plan to retool the Medicare system that’s already become a flash point in the developing campaign season.

Pivoting to a Senate bid would force him to vacate a position that he’s turned into a bully pulpit for significant reform of the social safety net.

“Where Paul Ryan is now, in a leadership role, where he’s defining the platform, it’s got to be hard for him to walk away from that,” said Robin Brand, of the Gay & Lesbian Victory Fund, which already plans to make the Badger State campaign one of its top priorities.

Ryan has four children, which factored into his decision not to run for governor last year. He’s also in line to become chairman of the tax-writing Ways and Means Committee, a post he’s coveted since he first came to Washington in 1999.

Pursuing a seat in the upper chamber would also effectively take Ryan out of the running as a potential 2012 vice presidential candidate.

“Paul will be on everyone’s shortlist for vice president, and he doesn’t have to risk his House seat to do it,” McCoshen said.