Best of luck to Alissa, but I think that, after two big hip injuries, a consistent triple-triple in BOTH segments of the competition is a pie-in-the-sky goal.

This...

Czisny doesn't want to give up and that's cool, I can understand that...

Nothing wrong with trying but it's all easier said than done. Even at her best she'd be fighting for it, battling her own nerves too but as is, she has a tough road ahead. It's easier with a 3rd spot but there are at least 4 other girls in better shape than she is who want one of those spots. We shall see...

I can't see Mirai going all the way to 2018. The competition nationally is just going to keep getting better and she's already falling behind skaters like Agnes and Christina.

Mirai and Agnes met twice last season, Mirai won once, Agnes once. Agnes's SB at Nationals at 179 was higher, but her lifetime PB internationally is 166, not competitive with Mirai or Christina. Mirai and Christina both had a SB last season of 176. Mirai is fully competitive with Agnes and Christina.

Czisny doesn't want to give up and that's cool, I can understand that...

Nothing wrong with trying but it's all easier said than done. Even at her best she'd be fighting for it, battling her own nerves too but as is, she has a tough road ahead. It's easier with a 3rd spot but there are at least 4 other girls in better shape than she is who want one of those spots. We shall see...

I think that it is better to give it a shot, than sit around afterwards wondering what might have been. Anyway, I wish her the best of luck, and whatever does happen, she is a delight to watch.

Mirai and Agnes met twice last season, Mirai won once, Agnes once. Agnes's SB at Nationals at 179 was higher, but her lifetime PB internationally is 166, not competitive with Mirai or Christina. Mirai and Christina both had a SB last season of 176. Mirai is fully competitive with Agnes and Christina.

USFS has a bit of a luxury this season with that third spot for the Olympics and Worlds (assuming Wagner and Gold are healthy and skate well enough to make the team) because, especially assuming Kim, Asada and/or Kostner decide to take a pass on Worlds, Wagner and Gold should be able to hold 3 spots without help for 2015 which means that third spot could go to someone that USFS thinks could be the other one of the US 1-2 punch with Gold in the next quadrenium (which, frankly, if it were MY decision, I would do to get them "less pressure" exposure on that grand stage).

Beyond Agnes and Christina, look at the skaters who have recently joined the Senior ranks or are coming up into the Senior ranks (or hopefully gaining stability) over the next couple years, though, to understand why some are saying Mirai's chances decrease after 2014 unless she shows a huge TES improvement:
Gracie Gold (S2, 3+3 in both programs, already top 6 in the World)
Courtney Hicks (S4, 3+3 in both programs, needs to fix her rushing issues, has good speed just looked sloppy and unfinished)
Angela Wang (S10 last season, when she's on, she has 3+3 in both programs - clean)
Hannah Miller (S9 last season, no 3+3 yet, but excellent skating skills and interpretive ability, JGPF2 is proof of that)
Mariah Bell (J2 last season and J4 the season before, excellent skating skills, recently landed her first 2A+3 at Broadmoor in Seniors, can 3+3 be far behind? I found her programs to be the most interesting of the last couple seasons and she has that inate "look at me" factor like many of the great skaters of the past)
Polina Edmunds (J1, perfectly capable of 3+3 already, needs to ensure she has fixed her UR problems that she had in the last season)
Barbie Long (J3 for last 2 seasons, perfectly capable of 3+3s, needs to work on her SS some more)
Karen Chen (J4 last season, N1 the season before, UR on her 3+3 and a few other tech issues she needs to get sorted as she grows, but young and a very promising skater)

There is also Vanessa Lam (who's jumps, to me, are borderline, but that doesn't mean she can't catch lightening in a bottle at a Nationals at some point with a good skate), Carley Gold (who has been making steady improvements in her TES and has recently started landing some harder content), Yasmine Siraj (who skated well enough at Nationals to pass by Miller and Wang for a JW spot), and Samantha Cesario (who needs to up her technical content).
There were also several very promising Novices who could be making their Senior Nationals debut in 2015 or 2016.
Of these listed by name, only Chen hasn't reached puberty yet. The others have all survived and most actually improved after the initial growth spurt.

USFS has a bit of a luxury this season with that third spot for the Olympics and Worlds (assuming Wagner and Gold are healthy and skate well enough to make the team) because, especially assuming Kim, Asada and/or Kostner decide to take a pass on Worlds, Wagner and Gold should be able to hold 3 spots without help for 2015 which means that third spot could go to someone that USFS thinks could be the other one of the US 1-2 punch with Gold in the next quadrenium (which, frankly, if it were MY decision, I would do to get them "less pressure" exposure on that grand stage).

The US federation almost always takes the thrid place finisher at Nationals, if 3 spots are available, to Olympics and Worlds.

Are you assuming Wagner will retire after this coming Worlds? She may continue 2 or even four years after Sochi.

I would never send anyone less than the best available to an Olympics or worlds. Suppose you believe all of Christina, Mirai and Agnes are better than Hicks, but you somehow manipuate the selection to send Hicks to Worlds so she will have experience over the next quad. 1. You may have squandered a chance for higher placemnts at words if you don't send your best. There is never a guarantee that Wagner or Gold won't falter. 2. A hypothetical Hicks missing out of world's next year would have multiple chances in GP's and Nationals to gain experience over the next quad. The pressure at Nationals is currently every bit as much as at Worlds, and higher than at a competition such as four continents. 3. Suppose the Federation "selects" someone such as Hicks to be the third at Worlds, as a partner to Gold for the next quad. As you have correctly demonstrated, there is a wealth of other competitors such as Miller, Wang, Edmunds coming for the next quad. You may give Hicks a head start and experience, at the detriment of your world team, yet she maybe bypassed regardless by Miller, Wang, Edmunds or others. You are giving up an advantage for an unknown. I don't think the Yankees would bench a top player in the world series so a bench player could have more experience for next year. When you have only three entrants, it is critical to send nothing less than the best.

The US federation almost always takes the thrid place finisher at Nationals, if 3 spots are available, to Olympics and Worlds....

I would never send anyone less than the best available to an Olympics or worlds. Suppose you believe all of Christina, Mirai and Agnes are better than Hicks, but you somehow manipuate the selection to send Hicks to Worlds...

What I wish is that we could take "what we believe" out of the equation altogether. That is why I have never complained about the rule, let the skaters earn their spots at nationals. That takes "belief" off the table. No need to manipulate anything.

What I wish is that we could take "what we believe" out of the equation altogether. That is why I have never complained about the rule, let the skaters earn their spots at nationals. That takes "belief" off the table. No need to manipulate anything.

^ I look at it this way, R.D. If the USFSA is blatantly cheating by giving favored skaters a higher placement at Nationals than they deserve, then that is where our outrage should be directed, independent of other considerations.

The US federation almost always takes the thrid place finisher at Nationals, if 3 spots are available, to Olympics and Worlds.

Are you assuming Wagner will retire after this coming Worlds? She may continue 2 or even four years after Sochi.

It's likely that Ashley intends to retire after next season, being that she has an outside shot at an Olympic bronze and a very good chance at a World medal. She's said she would have retired after the Vancouver Olympics, had she qualified, so I don't know if much has changed in her perception that the Olympics will be the absolute epitome of her career.

I can't see her continuing for so long after Sochi, honestly. She knows that the younger girls are catching up to her (Gracie may actually steal her national title in 2014), and I just can't imagine that she wants to pour more time and money into training when she probably wants to fondly look back on her career and then move on to another phase of her life.

It's likely that Ashley intends to retire after next season, being that she has an outside shot at an Olympic bronze and a very good chance at a World medal. She's said she would have retired after the Vancouver Olympics, had she qualified,...

...keep in mind, just because she SAYS she would have done so doesn't mean that she ACTUALLY would have done so...both Nagasu and Flatt stuck around afterwards, after all.

I can't see her continuing for so long after Sochi, honestly. She knows that the younger girls are catching up to her (Gracie may actually steal her national title in 2014),...

That's a real possibility. I won't say "strong" possibility yet, as we do not know what shape Gold will be in mentally, but it's true, Wagner should be watching her back.