I am a CPA in Texas with an MBA from the University of Chicago. I have seen a lot and made many mistakes. Hopefully by now I will have learned something from them. Just as importantly, you may learn something from my mistakes. You can e-mail me by clicking on my "View my complete profile".

Monday, June 14, 2010

Three-Card Monte Central Bankers

"After all the massive bailouts, the federal debt is exploding. ... The US now has a heavier debt burden than several of the overleveraged countries that have been branded with the scornful nickname 'the PIIGS.' ... Yes, in recent months, there's been a lot of bullish talk about how the American balance sheet has been cleaned up. ... And banks and other financial institutions owe $1.4 trillion less than they did in late 2008. Those debts haven't disappeared. They have merely been shifted onto the books of the federal government--in what may be the highest-stakes shell game ever. ... There's no sign of a slowdown in debt growth. 'These processes are not linear,' warns [Carmen] Reinhart. 'You can increase debt for a while and nothing happens. Then you hit the wall, and--bang!--what seem to be minor shocks that the markets would shrug off in other circumstances suddenly become big.' ... 'If you flood the markets with more and more debt, its value is going to go down. We are silly to fool ourselves into believing otherwise.' ... In 1989, the great investor Sir John Templeton told me something that has rung in my ears ever since, this week more than ever: Those who spend too much will eventually be owned by those who are thrify.' ... But in my view, the obvious tools--gold and other commodities, emerging-markets stocks, inflation-protected bonds--are already so popular that they are likely overpriced", my emphasis, Jason Zweig at the WSJ, 8 May 2010, link: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704292004575230601932486166.html.

I disagree with Templeton, remembering something Brazil's finance minster said about 25 years ago, "If I owe the bank a million dollars and I can't pay, I'm in trouble. If I owe the bank a billion dollars and I can't pay, the bank is in trouble". Who is in trouble if Uncle Sam owes trillions? I think $1,225 gold is cheap.