Energy Market Analysis – 01-10-2018

Friday was the final day of trading for the 2017/18 gas year and saw prices decrease across the curve, with traders taking profits despite overall market sentiment appearing bullish. Norwegian flows remained weak, while coal, carbon and oil markets increased.

Power prices were pushed lower by a weaker gas market on Friday, with an improved renewable generation forecast for the weekend and the start of this week providing additional bearish pressure to the prompt. Further out, stronger fuel prices limited any losses.

Market Open

Market Open

The UK gas system is 30mcm long this morning, resulting in strong losses on the near-curve; a rise in Norwegian flows and reduced exports have contributed to the improved supply picture. Temperatures are also around the seasonal norm and renewable generation is higher, reducing demand for gas.

Falling gas continues to dictate the power curve this morning with the UK enjoying healthy supply and demand lower due to improved renewables. Wind and solar power is expected to remain above the seasonal average or above this week, while temperatures will be around the norm for October.

Brent 1st-nearby prices display further gains this morning, reaching their highest level for 4 years, recording another rise this morning to trade around $82.7/b. Impending sanctions on Iran are the main factor behind the current bullish sentiment which will have a significant impact on global oil supply.

1-year forward prices

Market close data has revealed that the 1-year forward price for both commercial gas & commercial electricity decreased – closing at 66.40ppt and £62,48/MWh, respectively.

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