I reject the idea that because some pitching prospects get hurt, they are all expendable. A good organization has to make judgments about which ones have high ceilings, which are likely to reach their ceiling,and which are likely (due to mechanics or history) to get hurt. All of these are matters of probability, not certainty. The healthiest situation for an organization, then, is to load up with as many talented young pitchers as possible. For every ten quality pitching prospects, you will be fortunate if one makes it as a successful starter (career of five or more years, above replacement value) in the majors.

I reject the idea that because some pitching prospects get hurt, they are all expendable. A good organization has to make judgments about which ones have high ceilings, which are likely to reach their ceiling,and which are likely (due to mechanics or history) to get hurt. All of these are matters of probability, not certainty. The healthiest situation for an organization, then, is to load up with as many talented young pitchers as possible. For every ten quality pitching prospects, you will be fortunate if one makes it as a successful starter (career of five or more years, above replacement value) in the majors.

Finger on the Pulse Post of the Week.

The fact that 9 out of 10 decent/good/great pitching prospects fail to make it means that teams that emphasize drafting them are going to have to deal with heartbreak and disappointment on a frequent basis.

On the other hand, it also means that certain bloggers get to describe certain GM’s incompetent on a regular basis for drafting them. So there’s that. 🙂