You do realise that I couldn't vote yesterday because I wasn't allowed to, right?

Plus, your scummate/s lose if the aliens win, so they can do that killing for us, anyway. We have time; I like our chances. But you're right, you are more useful than just telling us abour znirk/van's alienitude.

But whatever. I'm happy for us to lynch someone other than jimbob today, because jimbob's at the top of my kill list; my secondary kill is van so if we lynch jimbob then Van dies tonight, unless I change, of course.

About the idea of jimbob perhaps being only a slight liar, I refer you back to the end of this post. Basically my argument runs: Why lie so early, when lies are certain to expose him sooner or later? Could be a calculated risk/self-sacrifice in exchange for some confusion, but if since he is scum: Imagine he got a result of "no anti-towns" on the D1 lynch (which I still hold is at least somewhat plausible). He pretty much had to lie in that case, because confirming a whole bunch of people as either town or third-party could have spelled serious trouble for him and his mates.

And then, unrelatedly, there's this:

#HBC | YOLOSWAG wrote:jimbob

You will be lynched today. No townie with a brain will allow a claimed werewolf survive a day longer.

Why don't you claim your honest results? Werewolves' play has been weak enough that he will likely be found tomorrow, why not give enough information that will help identify the last alien that at least they will not win?

#HBC | YOLOSWAG wrote:Werewolves' play has been weak enough that he will likely be found tomorrow, why not give enough information that will help identify the last alien that at least they will not win?

#HBC | YOLOSWAG wrote:information that will help identify the last alien that at least they will not win?

#HBC | YOLOSWAG wrote:the last alien

... Hi there, HBC. How are you so sure that there's only one alien left? We started with 2-4, 2 are dead and we know that's not all of them, so that leaves 1 or 2.

Together with the suspicious absence of mind control, and HBC showing up on Sungura's suspicion lists as Alien, I'm going to take that little slip-up as "good enough for me".

I'm not sure what town would have to gain by letting jimbob live until tomorrow. I'm fine with letting Madge nightkill him. I tend to believe that Yoloswag did kill an alien, since he admitted as much in the very first post of the day when there easily could have been a counterclaim. But it's certainly possible that it was just a strategy to distance himself from the aliens, especially since the aliens have done nothing to prevent Yoloswag's kills through mind control. I thought he was lone wolf, and I suppose it's still theoretically possible that he is, but at the moment I'm inclined to think he's the last alien.

I think there's 1 alien left because I don't see any pair of the surviving players being aligned together with dimochka/freezeblade.

We have a claimed werewolf but let's lynch the guy who shot members of both teams. Come on guys, it's a crackpot theory to waste bullet on your team member instead of letting him eat the lynch which would help the aliens survive longer.

Because I tend to avoid openly discussing setup speculation. I've been avoiding it all game and have solely been focusing on who I believe to be scum. Defensive, sure. I'd rather a townie engage me when accused instead of ignoring accusations.

Speaking of who I believe to be scum, I had a rough night so I'll be back in this thread later.

... wait, what? You were the one speculating that there's just one alien. The non-speculative, solid-fact-based version goes "either one or two aliens". Are you saying that you're comfortable throwing your actual speculation out there, but don't want to discuss it or even recognise it as speculation? Do you just expect everybody to magically agree with your secret thought processes, and if so, how is that approach helpful to town?

Also:

#HBC | YOLOSWAG wrote:Come on guys, it's a crackpot theory to waste bullet on your team member instead of letting him eat the lynch which would help the aliens survive longer.

Care to rephrase that last part? I have no idea what you're trying to get at with this.

My best guess at this point is still that HBC is alien, and he's flailing.

About jimbob: Of course it would be very useful to have his actual results; but I don't understand why we should trust whatever he says tomorrow. Madge, do what you do best I suppose. (My feeling here is influenced by that I'm still leaning towards town on Van, your secondary target.)

That pretty much is what I'm saying Z. I work under a number of assumptions but don't always share them (townreads are an example) because they don't accomplish anything. The "speculation" you're giving me shit for was to pressure the claimed werewolf. And cut the snark, I haven't deliberated with town on my kills and we've been fine. Stop trying to act like this behavior has no precedence.

The latter message is saying that shooting an alien partner directly flies in the face of their wincon. Even if I was dimochka's partner, it's way better to leave him alive to either wiggle out of the noose or even eat the lynch because shooting him would take a lynch off the table when aliens are trying to push as many mislynches as possible. It'd be handing town a freebie which STILL wouldn't even be a good gambit when considering jimbobs and dr ugs abilities could sink it easily.

First it's letting the jester roleblock half the town and now it's "let's call the guy who shot an alien an alien even though that plan doesn't make sense." Holy shit guys

#HBC | YOLOSWAG wrote:"let's call the guy who shot an alien an alien even though that plan doesn't make sense."

I disagree, the plan makes perfect sense: "an alien wouldn't kill an alien, so if I kill my partner, who's already suspected of being an alien, people will believe I'm not an alien." It's not necessarily the best plan, but given that none of the players with kill powers have yet been killed or mind-control-roleblocked, I think it's safe to say that the aliens haven't always chosen the best plan.

Am I missing something obvious here, or could HBC simply have claimed responsibility for a kill he didn't commit? I absolutely cannot buy HBC intentionally killing a partner, even if they were under suspicion. Bussing them is one thing, but that's... a bit too far.

e.g. Suppose HBC is an alien, N1 he claims he killed dimochka and actually targeted Weiyaoli. In reality, maybe the werewolves NKed dimochka and now know that HBC is lying, but no one else does. They have no reason to call attention to it, because they'd have to claim the kill otherwise. They also might have less motivation to kill him because they know he's anti-town, but aren't sure exactly what role he's filling (e.g. they don't want to kill a traitor or lone wolf that will help them get rid of aliens). This makes a lot more sense to me.

Also, did we ever clarify for sure that mind control and role abilities can't be used by the same person? I don't see anything in the first post. That seems like a thing we should do.

Can someone use their role power and a factional/alignment ability on the same night?

Oregonaut wrote:You are a fucking idiot. (Insult.)You say that you disapprove of sex before marriage, but you are fucking that idiot. (Ad hominem.)You say that you disapprove of sex outside of marriage, but you are fucking your mom. (Ad mominem.)

Van wrote:e.g. Suppose HBC is an alien, N1 he claims he killed dimochka and actually targeted Weiyaoli. In reality, maybe the werewolves NKed dimochka and now know that HBC is lying, but no one else does. They have no reason to call attention to it, because they'd have to claim the kill otherwise. They also might have less motivation to kill him because they know he's anti-town, but aren't sure exactly what role he's filling (e.g. they don't want to kill a traitor or lone wolf that will help them get rid of aliens). This makes a lot more sense to me.

Hmm. Five night kills (six deaths, but I think the flavour indicates that one of the lovers only died because lover, and was not night-killed otherwise), and three of them were claimed. If you're already suspecting one or two of the kill-roles of being scum, I guess there might be an acceptable risk in false-claiming as far as that goes; but the thing is, it would throw a bright-red HBC on the WTF radar of someone who must, by definition, have a night kill. Not a happy choice if he is indeed the last alien.

Van wrote:Also, did we ever clarify for sure that mind control and role abilities can't be used by the same person? I don't see anything in the first post. That seems like a thing we should do.

I've been going with the assumption that they can be used simultaneously, and I haven't seen anybody seem to disagree. Did you perhaps misunderstand my mind-control/kill-role argument? I didn't say the lack of mind control in general was because aliens used kills instead. I meant that if the aliens never used mind-control on HBC, against RR in order to block their kills, it's because that would have meant at least pretending to block their own people.

So, again, the case against HBC is a bit difficult. It repeatedly seems like he might be right about to make a good argument, but then, true to his Angry Teenager in-game persona, he refuses to actually make that argument and just demands that everybody with half a brain should, like, agree with him, obviously. I'm still comfortably confident he's an alien desperately clinging to the "but I killed an alien" story which was supposed to carry him through into the endgame, but I'm beginning to warm to the idea of lynching him no matter what he is. He clearly has no intention of helping town with the whole scumhunting aspect of the game.

Oh, just realised that I never said this. Not under mind control, and have never been. As far as I can see that means that either aliens didn't use their mind-control powers, or that someone/somebody is hiding it, since everyone has had a chance to claim now. Not sure why anyone would hide this information though. Maybe the aliens targeted someone/some people who died, I suppose. Claiming not under mind control therefore appears to be a bit of dud regarding information.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:Oh, just realised that I never said this. Not under mind control, and have never been. As far as I can see that means that either aliens didn't use their mind-control powers, or that someone/somebody is hiding it, since everyone has had a chance to claim now. Not sure why anyone would hide this information though. Maybe the aliens targeted someone/some people who died, I suppose. Claiming not under mind control therefore appears to be a bit of dud regarding information.

And what about you, Mr Wolf? Do you not want to tell us which deaths your team is responsible for?

I think that claims to (a) the werewolves' targets and (b) accurate information on how many scum were on each lynch might be enough for me to not vote jimbob today, given I was already leaning towards another option or two anyway. That said, if Madge is thinking of killing him, I'm not going to ask her to change her mind.

Well, I suspect you'll be lucky to hit that number. There are 9 of us left, so of the 7 of us who aren't you or jimbob you're looking for no more than 2 dissenting voices, and at the very least I don't see YOLOSWAG, SirGabriel being too in favour of the proposal (but hey, I could be wrong). Still, let's get the ball rolling. I say accept the deal and let jimbob live, with the proviso that he is not surviving to D6. At worst, we have a clear scum target for D5, and at best we might actually be able to take out both scum teams.

Still, I've realised that we definitely can't just take jimbob's offer at face value, and I fully accept that there are plenty of reasons to reject it. First off, there's the possibility he's lying about being a werewolf, or about there being more than one werewolf left. I guess that if he was the sole remaining wolf he would try a different tack, since I don't think we're likely to let him live much longer no matter what he tried to pull. I suppose he could be alien, hoping to survive one more day and maybe being able to pull some crazy trick with the mind control power to survive to D6, but it's a long shot. Druid is a definite possibility - point the finger at his partner, and hope to also draw enough heat that both get killed at night. Jester maybe, but I think this move has too much of a risk of just being NKed rather than lynched. Sibling survivor is in a similar boat to werewolf, except that in that role he'd have no incentive to lie about his results. Traitor is also a distinct possibility - sow enough confusion that either aliens *or* werewolves have a decent chance of success. Which leaves town (obviously not) or lone wolf, and I think a smart lone wolf play would (a) try to be townie for as long as possible, or (b) try to look more like a jester or druid to make us second-guess lynching or killing him.

So most likely werewolf, traitor or druid, maybe alien or jester, possibly but probably not survivor or lone wolf, almost certainly not town.

Then, assuming he really is speaking as a wolf on behalf of wolves, there's the issue of whether the offer is genuine. In one sense, it kind of has to be - like town, the werewolves can't win while there are aliens still about. But on the other hand, what if there are actually more wolves than we think? It's a bit of a nightmare scenario, but of the 9 of us left, there's a minimum of 2 town, 1 alien, and 1 traitor, leaving the possibility (however unlikely) of up to 5 wolves. If we're on that end of the spectrum, then the odds are extremely good that they've got at least one killing role with them, maybe more, in which case by D5 they have a chance of holding the balance of power, and they can wipe out all non-wolf players before D6. Now I don't think this is likely to be the case, but again I think we have to be like the orange traffic light and proceed with caution.

Or, you know, you can just kill jimbob. Actually, the more I talk about it the better an option it seems (and if he's a druid, well then he'd better hope his partner gets hit by something too!)

Znirk wrote:So, again, the case against HBC is a bit difficult. It repeatedly seems like he might be right about to make a good argument, but then, true to his Angry Teenager in-game persona, he refuses to actually make that argument and just demands that everybody with half a brain should, like, agree with him, obviously. I'm still comfortably confident he's an alien desperately clinging to the "but I killed an alien" story which was supposed to carry him through into the endgame, but I'm beginning to warm to the idea of lynching him no matter what he is. He clearly has no intention of helping town with the whole scumhunting aspect of the game.

I kind of agree with most of what you've said, but the whole situation is just weird enough to make it seem really sketchy. If we want to believe that HBC is an alien, we have to:1. Believe that he either killed his teammate, or went with a crazy gambit and lied about killing his teammate.2. Believe that he didn't notice that he could be roleblocked by aliens.

#2 is maybe not as hard, as I didn't catch it. I only thought about it in terms of general usage, not vs specific roles. If I was an alien, would I have missed it? ... I hope not? That seems like a really good thing to catch and falseclaim. I feel like I'm in a weird spot where I'm convinced enough to nurse him, but not enough to lynch him.

Re: Jimbob, I've been thinking that his play would be brilliant for a druid. His role made him pretty logical to get NKed, and getting caught in a lie would ensure town wanted him dead as well, then he follows it up by claiming a scum role (ostensibly to offer us a deal, but I can't imagine he thought it would be successful?).

Oregonaut wrote:You are a fucking idiot. (Insult.)You say that you disapprove of sex before marriage, but you are fucking that idiot. (Ad hominem.)You say that you disapprove of sex outside of marriage, but you are fucking your mom. (Ad mominem.)

I see no reason for us to claim our kills at this point. I will however discuss with the team and find out what they think. Regardless, should we decide to claim, I still think Yoloswag should claim before we do.

And you know what? I think that's enough for me to say no to the deal. It's not even particularly because I think they'll be helpful, but because with a claim and offer as outrageous as yours, I feel like we need something *now*. It doesn't have to be an ongoing thing, just let us know who the werewolves' N3 kill was. And I'd actually like to see it *before* Yoloswag claims his own kill, because if you're lying then there's a chance he can call you on it (I assume that since you haven't said anything to the contrary that you don't have a similar claim against his first two kills). Think of it as proof-that-jimbob-isn't-a-druid insurance.

My team don't see any benefit in revealing our targets. Why are you so concerned with what they were? The same goes the other way around as well - if I wait for Yoloswag's clam, there's a chance I can call him on it. Surely that would be more beneficial to town, since the only information we currently have on him is his claimed kills? Of course, you'll need to take our claimed kill with a pinch of salt, since I am scum, and could have a reason to lie, but for what it's worth, I won't be.

Of course, if you're really that bothered that I am a druid, don't kill me, and see what information I have to share tomorrow. A druid needs to be dead in order to have a chance of winning.

OK, so, if we've decided that I'll be killing jimbob tonight, let's work out who we're lynching. No point in wasting any more time worrying about him.

My main area of support is in a van/znirk lynch just because I think jimbob's results, whilst wrong, are probably better than nothing. I'm not convinced by the case on YOLOSWAG at the moment, but anything can happen in 44 hours.

OK, so, if we've decided that I'll be killing jimbob tonight, let's work out who we're lynching. No point in wasting any more time worrying about him.

My main area of support is in a van/znirk lynch just because I think jimbob's results, whilst wrong, are probably better than nothing. I'm not convinced by the case on YOLOSWAG at the moment, but anything can happen in 44 hours.

I think I agree with that. In terms of lynch target, I can see arguments for both of them potentially being scum, and I'd probably lean more towards Van than Znirk in a vacuum, but there's also the consideration of what happens when Van dies - essentially, we can either lynch Van and get Suzaku's kill (and Znirk's karate chop) back, or we can lynch someone-who-isn't-Van (and like you say, Znirk is definitely an option) and leave Suzaku roleblocked and potentially have another person RBed tonight. So it depends not only on whether we think at least one of them is scum, but also on what the effect of killing them or letting them live might be.

Van, if you're not lynched, are you willing to say who you'd plan on nursifying/doctorifying tonight?

Presumably YOLOSWAG will be going for the kill again tonight, so there are no public protection abilities to worry about. In that case, Znirk, if Van is lynched then would you be likely to target me on the assumption I have some kind of wacky hidden protection ability that I can't talk about?

Suzaku, if Van is lynched then are you willing to state who you're thinking of targeting, or who you might trust to tell you who to target?

ConMan wrote:Znirk, if Van is lynched then would you be likely to target me on the assumption I have some kind of wacky hidden protection ability that I can't talk about?

Huh. I guess I should get a target in, just in case I'm denursed. (For the record, and for the time being, I'm still of the opinion that Van is probably not anti-town.)

Thing is, there isn't really anyone for me to target at all. I'm assuming for the moment that HBC stays true to past performance and goes for the murderstabkillkillkill rather than the protection - if he doesn't, then that might indicate teammate defense, and it would potentially be more valuable to know about it than to block it? And you yourself did just talk about your hidden ability being self-protection, and since you're not allowed to discuss your role, that means your role can't be self-protection (unless you're committing suicide-by-mod here).

ConMan wrote:Znirk, if Van is lynched then would you be likely to target me on the assumption I have some kind of wacky hidden protection ability that I can't talk about?

Huh. I guess I should get a target in, just in case I'm denursed. (For the record, and for the time being, I'm still of the opinion that Van is probably not anti-town.)

Thing is, there isn't really anyone for me to target at all. I'm assuming for the moment that HBC stays true to past performance and goes for the murderstabkillkillkill rather than the protection - if he doesn't, then that might indicate teammate defense, and it would potentially be more valuable to know about it than to block it? And you yourself did just talk about your hidden ability being self-protection, and since you're not allowed to discuss your role, that means your role can't be self-protection (unless you're committing suicide-by-mod here).

For now, no night action submitted.

I'm asking about your actions, since from your perspective I'd guess that you can't rule out the possibility. I'm certainly making no claims of having such an ability.

ConMan wrote:Van, if you're not lynched, are you willing to say who you'd plan on nursifying/doctorifying tonight?

To be honest, I haven't had time to think.

At the moment, without a re-read, I think I will probably withhold.

I have some lingering suspicions about RR, but we can roleblock him during the day as a group.

My gut lies with wanting to lynch Jimbob. If Jimbob doesn't get lynched, I might consider targeting him, but I don't think that'd achieve anything (since it wouldn't do anything until N5, and the most damage he can do is just lie..).If Jimbob does get lynched, there's no point to me sending in a target (since Madge will kill me and my action won't have any effect), but pending a re-read, I might send in HBC. I'm hoping to squeeze in some time to re-read and get a better feel before the lynch on Thursday, but it won't be until maybe 4-5 hours pre-deadline.

Oregonaut wrote:You are a fucking idiot. (Insult.)You say that you disapprove of sex before marriage, but you are fucking that idiot. (Ad hominem.)You say that you disapprove of sex outside of marriage, but you are fucking your mom. (Ad mominem.)

ConMan wrote:Znirk, if Van is lynched then would you be likely to target me on the assumption I have some kind of wacky hidden protection ability that I can't talk about?

This pinged me slightly for some reason. Why bring it up at all? If you don't have any form of protection, it makes no difference who znirk targets. If you do and are town, why point out the possibility that you might have protection? What I could believe is that you are anti-town and a PGO as discussed earlier, and are highlighting to Znirk that you are a good target, to bump off a player not in your faction.

Madge wrote:My main area of support is in a van/znirk lynch just because I think jimbob's results, whilst wrong, are probably better than nothing. I'm not convinced by the case on YOLOSWAG at the moment, but anything can happen in 44 hours.

jimbob knew his lie would eventually be discovered, so if there was one scum on the vote, why would he lie? My guess is there were no anti-town on the wagon day 1, and he thought sacrificing himself would be better than having six confirmed non-anti-town. So I think neither Van nor znirk is scum.

ConMan wrote:Suzaku, if Van is lynched then are you willing to state who you're thinking of targeting, or who you might trust to tell you who to target?

Yes, if Van is lynched I'd be OK with sharing my planned kill targets (I won't give just one, as my kill's not unblockable). I will be giving a list of my town/scum reads (once I have them) and you may assume I would be happy to follow targeting advice form people I consider townie.

ConMan wrote:Znirk, if Van is lynched then would you be likely to target me on the assumption I have some kind of wacky hidden protection ability that I can't talk about?

This pinged me slightly for some reason. Why bring it up at all? If you don't have any form of protection, it makes no difference who znirk targets. If you do and are town, why point out the possibility that you might have protection? What I could believe is that you are anti-town and a PGO as discussed earlier, and are highlighting to Znirk that you are a good target, to bump off a player not in your faction.

Meh. You try wording a question about someone's actions based on knowledge you aren't allow to reveal. The question was really "Znirk, who would you target?" but I decided to refine it based on the weird asymmetry of information out there. If Znirk wants to chop me, then that's up to him. If he wants to coordinate with a killing role to guaranteed kill me, then I'm absolutely not in favour but that's still his call. I still deny any paranoia on my part, although unfortunately I know of no-one who targeted me and is alive to confirm it.

Meanwhile, deadline draws ever closer, and I'm trying to narrow down my vote. I'm pretty sure I want to choose between Van, Znirk and jimbob. But I think my wanting to vote for Van is a combination of general uneasiness about something and the hope that having some more kills will work in town's favour, neither of which is a good position for a vote at this point. jimbob is an obvious choice, and I think if he's not lynched then at least one person is going to kill him, which I don't know whether is an argument for or against lynching him. Znirk, well, I'm fine with his answer to my question, except that even if you think your action is going to do nothing it can't hurt to send one in just in case; the accusation from jimbob's info is weak at best given what we know about jimbob; but I really do wonder about this anti-YOLOSWAG position he and SirG are sitting on, and since I seem to be siding with YOLO for now I've got to be majorly suspicious about anyone trying to get him killed, so

Vote Znirk

I *still* want to hear some more kill claims, but deadline is getting way too close.

OK, I'll submit a target just in case Van dies, and I don't die, before my action is processed tonight.

Targeting in public seems clinically stupid though. In general (i.e. let's say that my nurseblock is already assumed to be gone), remember that I target the protégé, not the protector. If I'm known to have a night action, and I announce my target, then any protectors (of whom we've seen no evidence so far) can just target someone else or, in HBC's case, choose to roleblock or kill instead of protecting.

As for tonight: if we grant that the wolves may also have one or two kill roles on top of the wolf kill, then they're holding the switch (though not exclusively) on whether my protection block activates or not. If they like my announced target enough to want to spend an extra kill, they can take out Van to secure their other kill's success via my chop. (Again: that's a fairly hypothetical situation, because we know only of HBC's protection abiltiy, and that's not been used yet as far as we know.)

Conman, why so curious about my target?

Meanwhile, what do we think of roadierich's absence since last Thursday? Just busy, or deliberately lying low to let the focus of discussion fall on other people?

Finally, my gut impressions list of the living:

Heather (Van)I'm buying Town (or 3rd party) for now, partly on behaviour and partly based on the "jimbob lied because no scum in the D1 lynch vote" hypothesis.

Father Patrick (Sir Gabriel)Suzaku (Suzaku)Xela (Madge)Undecided and leaning townish. Reasonable behaviour but some odd vibes coming off this batch.

Oscar (Roadierich)Perry (Conman)Undecided and leaning scummish.

Marco (HBC)I'm getting enough little things piling up to want to kill him off: the lack-of-mind-control thing, the possible slip about only one alien being left, the "aggressively defensive" attitude, the refusal to discuss his opinions. Today he has not yet claimed an action for last night in spite of several prompts.

Not curious so much about the target, more about the thought process behind it. You can target privately if you want. The important thing is seeing the reasoning, to have an idea of whether you have any suspicions about where your ability might be best put to use - it's like asking Suzaku who he thinks he might kill, because it shows us who he regards as scummy (or at least who he wants us to think he regards as scummy).