The Economist explainsWhat would happen if Britain left the EU with no deal?

BREXIT is due to happen on March 29th 2019, two years after Theresa May invoked Article 50, the withdrawal provision of the EU treaty. Britain and the European Union are working towards a withdrawal treaty and a framework agreement for future trade. But the gap between the two sides is large. And there is a possibility that, even if a deal were agreed, the British Parliament might reject it. Yet Article 50 provides that withdrawal will happen automatically unless there is unanimous agreement to extend the timetable. So Britain could leave next March with no deal at all: a cliff-edge Brexit. What would that mean?

Hardline Brexiteers are happy with this idea. They say Britain would do fine trading with the EU on World Trade Organisation (WTO) terms, like most third countries. And they would be pleased to junk all EU laws and regulations in what some call a clean Brexit. Yet because there has been only limited preparation for a no-deal Brexit, it is likely to be disorderly. EU and WTO rules would require customs inspections and tariffs on much bilateral trade, which would cause long queues at Dover and disrupt just-in-time supply chains, as well as imposing a hard border in Ireland. Britain would fall out of EU regulatory bodies for things like air safety, medicines, nuclear materials, food and car inspection, and would not have time to create new regulators of its own. That means aircraft might not be allowed to fly and radio isotopes for cancer treatments might not be imported, while both food imports and car exports could be interrupted.

Mrs May’s government is promising to publish guidance to businesses and individuals on the possible consequences. The EU has issued similar contingency-planning advice. There is talk of stockpiling food and medical supplies and requisitioning parking space for lorries along motorways in Kent. Yet much of the discussion is tactical, not real. No negotiators seriously want a no-deal Brexit. Mrs May hopes that talk of one can give her a bargaining chip to persuade the EU to be more flexible towards her Chequers plans for a trade deal that gives Britain full access to its single market for goods. She also wants to persuade MPs in her party as well as voters that they should support the Chequers deal if only because the alternative of a no-deal Brexit looks so grim.

Yet none of this seems to working. Mrs May is finding that her fellow EU leaders back the European Commission in rejecting much of the Chequers plan. They reckon that having no deal is such a bad option that she will have to yield even more ground towards accepting terms set in Brussels. At the same time many Tory MPs and voters think Chequers concedes too much to the EU. In the end, a no-deal Brexit will probably be avoided, but the early months of next year could be quite nerve-racking. And even if Britain leaves the EU on time with a deal, the cliff edge may not disappear completely. For there will then be a transition period lasting only until December 2020, at which point the risk of crashing out without a fully settled trade deal will return again.

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