December
12, 2002 — Last week’s early dose of snow and ice in the Southeast
and along the East Coast may be a glimpse of weather to come during Winter
2002-03, thanks to a moderate-strength El
Niño digging in its heels. Top weather and climate experts
from NOAA today said El Niño
will set the stage for increased storm activity across the South. (Click
NOAA image for larger view of 2002-2003 winter outlook. Click
here for high resolution version of this image. Please credit “NOAA.”)

“This
is a classic El Niño pattern,” said retired U.S. Navy Vice
Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher,
Ph.D., undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator.
“El Niño is one of the driving forces behind these kinds
of winter storm systems, which develop in the South and head east. But
in some cases this winter, these storms could bring more rain to parts
of the East.” Lautenbacher added, “El Niño will shape
weather patterns through spring 2003.” (Click NOAA satellite
image for larger view of the development of El Niño taken Dec.
9, 2002. The warm sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean
are represented in red. Please credit “NOAA.”)

El Niño
occurs when sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean remain
above average for more than several months. This usually triggers a chain
reaction of atmospheric and weather changes around the globe.

Based on
NOAA’s latest El Niño forecast and its updated December-February
winter outlook, forecasters said the nation can expect warmer-than-normal
temperatures across the northern half of the country, wetter and stormier-than-normal
weather across the south from California through the Carolinas, and drier-than-normal
conditions in the northern Rockies and Midwest.

“Over
time, these precipitation patterns can reduce lingering drought conditions
that have plagued the southeast and southwest in recent years,”
said retired Brig. Gen. Jack
Kelly, director of the NOAA National
Weather Service. However, he added, “Drought may intensify in
the northern Rockies and parts of the Midwest.” (Click NOAA
image for larger view of U.S. Drought Monitor for Dec. 10, 2002. Click
here for high resolution version of this image. Please credit “NOAA.”)

Kelly said
nine percent of the area east of the Mississippi River remains in drought,
while 53 percent of the region west of the river remains in drought. In
September, approximately 55 percent of each region was affected by drought.

“El
Niño most strongly impacts U.S. weather patterns during the winter
by shifting the jet stream and storm track toward the southern tier of
the country,” said Jim Laver, director of the NOAA
Climate Prediction Center. “As a result, increased storminess
is expected across the southern U.S.,” said Laver.

The U.S.
2002/2003 winter outlook for December-February calls for:

Warmer-than-normal
temperatures across the northern half of the country.

Equal
chances for temperatures to be above normal, near normal, or below normal
in the southern half of the continental United States.

Drier
than normal conditions in the northern Rockies, including Montana and
northern parts of Idaho and Wyoming.

Wetter-than-normal
weather pattern across the South from California to the Carolinas, including
California, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, southwest Utah, southeast Colorado,
Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, southern Nebraska, western Missouri, western
Arkansas, Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, Georgia,
Florida, South Carolina and eastern North Carolina.

States
and regions in the continental United States not mentioned above will
have equal chances for precipitation to be above normal, near normal,
or below normal.

Warmer
and wetter-than-normal conditions in southern Alaska.

Cooler
and drier-than-normal conditions in Hawaii.

The CPC updates
its El Niño Diagnostic Discussion and seasonal outlooks each month,
and they are available online.

The CPC is
one of the National Centers for Environmental
Prediction, which is part of the NOAA Weather Service. The CPC predicts
and monitors El Niño and also produces the nation’s official
long-range outlooks and medium-range weather forecasts. NOAA Weather Service
is the primary source of weather data, forecasts and warnings for the
United States and its territories and operates the most advanced weather
and flood warning and forecast system in the world, helping to protect
lives and property and enhance the national economy. NOAA is an agency
of the Commerce Department.