The congressman for California's 48th district wants you to think he's a supercool surf dude who feels your pain. He's actually a Russia-loving, Trump-worshiping coward who avoids his constituents as if they carried a deadly virus. Heck, try giving him a call. You'll never hear back (Unless you're pledging a big donation).

In the aftermath of yet another school shooting, you would think leaders would, well, lead.

Of course, you’d also think this in the aftermath of the previous school shooting.

And the previous school shooting.

And the previous school shooting.

Um … no.

Dana Rohrabacher is our congressman. He’s been our congressman for many moons. He also is the father of three children—all of whom attend (we presume) schools. I, too, have children who attend schools, and in the immediate wake of the Florida shooting, I kept imagining my own son and daughter lying on the floor, gunshots exploding around them. I thought about them living. I thought about them dying. I thought about receiving the news of my slain child, and how that would ruin me and my family forever.

I mean, when something is so raw and tangible, how do you not ponder such scenarios? How do you not feel it?

I bring this up because, as he is wont to do, Rohrabacher marked the Florida nightmare by issuing this statement …

It is, obviously, the verbiage of cowards; of a man unwilling to ever take a stand on anything of substance; of an absolute spineless and worthless piece of ocean crud, desperate to raise money, keep the far right happy, attend ribbon-cutting ceremonies and prolong his time in office.

In other words, it is vintage Dana Rohrabacher.

So what to do? Easy: We, as Democrats and independents, need to stay on target and keep focused. In recent weeks, there has been an increased level of sniping between Democratic candidate A and B, B and C, C and A. Whispering, rumors, gossip, innuendo. Did you hear what he said? Do you know what she really stands for? It’s some seriously ugly shit—and it does this effort little good.

See, the problem with politics is almost always ego. People begin their runs with good intentions. They like the idea of serving. They want to help their community. But, with money flow and speaking gigs and applause and “we need you” issuances, the id takes over. Suddenly, you have to be the person. You are the only one. You lose humility; you become defensive; you go on the attack.

Right now, that’s happening among Democrats, and it has to stop. Like, it really has to stop. This is about defeating Dana Rohrabacher, not about [FILL IN THE CANDIDATE] achieving personal glory.

In case you haven’t noticed, Dana Rohrabacher is failing to notice that he’s in serious trouble.

Right now, his reputation is crap. Democrats loathe him. Republicans are confused by him. He’s best known as the man who (A) Refuses to meet with constituents; (B) Conspires with Russia; (C) Never criticizes his Grand Master, Donald Trump.

These are all fantastic.

Rohrabacher has become our best friend. No matter who the Democrats wind up running in the general election, that man or woman will square off against a diminished office holder who seems to be slipping—fast. Past political instincts are no longer sharp. Loyalty among GOPers has diminished. When he speaks, he seems crazed and off-balance. He takes pictures alongside white nationalists and doesn’t flinch. He hears some of Trump’s bonkers comments and refuses to correct and intervene.

So, truly, let him have his photo opps. Let him eat ice cream, cut ribbons, tie himself to Donald Trump every way possible.

In response to the previous Crazy Dana entry, Laura Oatman wrote the following words. I want to thank her for taking the time to do so, and for running with passion and integrity.

I am definitely not going to bash you – but I do think you’re wrong. We have known, for a while now, that we have entered a strange land where the normal rules of politics don’t apply. We saw it in the 2016 election, we saw it in Alabama, and we will see it in the fall. As long as I’ve been around, the common wisdom was that Dems would get 40% of the vote, the Republicans 40%, and whoever could field a moderate candidate with appeal to that 20% would win.

And maybe that hasn’t completely disappeared, but it has been superseded by a more powerful rule: excite your base, get out the vote, and you will win.

Trump spent about half of what Clinton spent, but got within 2% of the votes Hillary did – and enough to get him into the White House. Not without her flaws, HRC was still the most qualified candidate – possibly in American history – and she was extremely moderate by today’s Progressive standards. So 1) huge war chest 2) smooth and polished candidate 3) moderate positioning. It didn’t help her, to my great regret.

Then you have Doug Jones, in Alabama. I was shocked to learn that 91% of GOP voters in that election *still* voted for Roy Moore. Doug Jones won, in large part, because he got one of the cores of his base – black women – to turn out big. As I’ve said often before, I will support whoever wins the primary 100%. But I also believe that of this field, I’m the only candidate who voters on the left can feel excited about, AND the only candidate who can bring the Republicans along, and you need both of these superficially opposing pieces to take out Dana Rohrabacher. I believe (as do many others) that I am the only candidate that can win.

There is an energy running through our country right now, in response to reality that we’ve all woken up to realize we are really in a fight to make sure this amazing country stays on the right course. That people and the planet need to be treated with care and respect. That there are people in power who don’t want to do either. This is a fight.

Much like my candidacy. We all know who the Democratic Party wants to win. We all know I’m a small businesswoman, not a multimillionaire who can self-fund in the hundreds of thousands of dollars. We are running this campaign from my kitchen table right now and I am proud and thankful of the thousands of hours our volunteers have put into this effort. The volunteer response has been terrific, and it is that same passion for change that *they* want so badly is what I believe translates into a victory in November.

In closing, I’ll address the “health woman” tag. I’m used to it. It’s a way to try and knock me down a peg. I am an Architect. I received a Masters in Architecture from UCLA, passed all 8 architectural licensing exams on the first try, then went the extra mile to get my LEED-accreditation so I could design environmentally friendly buildings. I have worked on sustainable green projects around the world. That is my profession. But we all have hobbies, we all have side interests, and healthy living is mine. I’m sure the other candidates have their side interests, but Hans is still “the Scientist”, Harley is still “the Realtor”, Omar is still “the Attorney”. Not one mention in your article of my profession, just my hobby. It’d be nice to live in a society where women are judged and labeled like men are, by their occupation, by their accomplishments, by their education, not by their hobbies, not by silly stories told and repeated over and over by men (and women) who feel intimidated by successful women. I would like to be a part of the journey that finally gets us to that place where women are FINALLY treated equally to men. It’s the least we can do for our daughters.

So I’ve been debating and debating and debating whether to write this post. But then I thought—well, everything on crazydana.com has been my sincere efforts to A. Analyze the upcoming election; and B. Help the Democratic Party wrestle control away from the awful ugliness of Dana Rohrabacher.

So … here I go.

In my time living in Southern California, I feel like I’ve gained a very strong understanding of the 48th District. It’s a weird place, right? Huge, not overly diverse, somewhat set in its ways. You have pockets of progressivism, you have large swaths of angry older whites, you have Dana loyalists and Dana detractors. There are areas where it’d make little sense for a Democrat to campaign, and there are areas ripe to be plucked. I’ve traveled all over the place. I’ve dug in. I’ve studied. I’ve read. I really want a Democrat to steal this thing. Like, I really, really want it.

Here’s what I think. And some of this, truly, sucks:

There are candidates among us who won’t win. I’m not talking about the Boyd Roberts of the world—semi-space cadets with well-intentioned-yet odd nonsensical ramblings. No, I mean legitimately good and decent aspiring public servants who bring (unfairly) baggage to this election. And, to be clear, I would be one of those people. I mean, for a nano-second I considered possibly trying to run. But then I looked myself in the mirror. I’m an uber-liberal Jew from New York with a lifetime of bylines and columns to dissect. I would, simply put, be slaughtered by Dana and his henchmen. So would some others.

Among them …

• Omar Siddiqui: I met with Omar. Great guy. Terrific guy. Wonderful guy. But … he … doesn’t … live … in … the … district. And while the “I have an office here” argument might work in a primary of likeminded Democrats, it will be (wisely and corrected) filleted by the Republicans in a general election. Also—and this sucks so badly I’m loathe to even broach it—Omar Siddiqui’s name and ethnicity are stumbling blocks. This sucks. Like, this sucks, sucks, sucks, sucks, sucks, sucks. Times 100,000. But, being blunt, to win this district Dana Rohrabacher’s opponent is going to absolutely have to convince a shitload of stubborn white conservative men and women that he is (for lack of a better word) one of them. Is it bullshit? Yes. Is it gross? Yes. Does it bother me? Beyond limits. But it’s also true. Politics is sales, and the sales job in 2018 is telling myriad closed-minded, set-in-their-ways white Californians that there’s something better than Dana. That is an extremely hard sell even if everything goes well.

• Hans Keirstead: Hans is a bad candidate. It’s all you hear from people; sort of the shock of the election cycle. He entered with the wind to his back, and it’s all been downhill since. The exaggerations. The woodenness. But the one thing that’s really damning (and, again, it sounds silly in isolation) is that Hans was born in Canada. Yes, it’s an absolutely inane reason not to vote for someone. But if I’m Dana Rohrabacher, and I’m on the ropes, and I see this Canadian man with a strange name standing across from me, I’m all over it. I paint him as an outsider who doesn’t share the 48th values. And, sadly, people will buy it. They’ll eat it up. We humans are a sad species. We truly are.

• Laura Oatman: I think Laura would make a tremendous congresswoman. I truly do. But the other day I was at an area party, and a couple of longtime Democrats were in attendance. They asked what I thought of the race, and I mentioned the two or three leading candidates—Laura among them. One guy said, snidely, “The health woman?” And I knew exactly what he meant … because it’s occurred to me, too. Again, it’s bullshit and stupid and ugly. But Oatman, the owner of a health/wellness business, Whole Earth Wellness, is an easy target. Republicans love painting Democrats as feel-good, granola-eating wusses. And, regrettably, it works. And works. And works. I think it would work here, too. As much as I hate that. As much as Laura’s resume sparkles.

•••

There’s a truth hanging over this election, and it sucks: We are underdogs. Huge underdogs. If you thought Donald Trump’s approval rating would be at 17 percent right now … well, it’s not. If you thought Dana would decide not to run—well, he is. He’s loaded with money and he boasts the underrated power of incumbency and name recognition. We all know he’s an ineffective idiot. The vast majority of voters, though, just see him as the name on the ballot. The known name.

Worst of all, nobody knows our candidates. I mean, “nobody” is a stretch. But Laura Oatman and Harley Rouda and Hans and Omar and all the others … they’re not household names. Or even known names. People haven’t been paying attention. So as we’ve built the case against Dana Rohrabacher, the folks who need to listen are, largely, at the beach, watching waves. It’s the simple reality.

And here’s the other simple reality: To win this election, we probably need a straightforward white moderate businessman or businesswoman. For the 1,000th time, I hate this. I want to make that clear—I hate this. Hell, I’m a Jewish liberal. My all-time favorite political figures include Barack Obama, Harvey Milk, Joe Biden, John Lewis, Ruth Ann Minner, Doug Wilder. But in order to have a shot to swing the district, everything has to go perfectly. We have to grab Dana’s voters while making him look diminished and inept. It’s about optics as much as it’s about policy.

Feel free to bash me for this. It’s not a post that brings me joy.

But I believe it to be true.

PS: One last thing. I’m noticing, with increased frequency, candidates slinging yang about opponents behind their backs. Hell, I’ve had multiple Democrats complain to me about X, or urge me to write negatively on Y.

That’s what he says during his select meetings with local supporters. That’s what he says during the robo-townhalls that exist via phone line. That’s what he will surely say as the campaign heats up. He cares and he communicates.

But here’s a quirky little thing. As this is being written, we are in the midst of a government shutdown. And Dana Rohrabacher—our congressman and ace communicator—has said, well, nothing.

I’m actually being literal here. In 2018, the way politicians communicate with their constituents is via social media. It’s what Donald Trump does, it’s what Chuck Schumer does, it’s what Nancy Pelosi and Paul Ryan do. So, naturally, one would expect Dana Rohrabacher to fill us (his constituents) in on the most recent happenings. Hence, tonight I visited his Facebook page to see what’s what.

Here is his most-recent posting …

Lovely.

Then I went to Twitter. Because, in Dana Rohrabacher’s defense, many public figures see Tweeting as communication method No. 1.

In short, this visionary leader … this man of the people … this man who presents himself as a model of strength and determination …

Is in hiding.

Other members of his party—both senators and congressmen—have spoken out repeatedly. Maybe they’re angry, maybe they’re sad, maybe they’re frustrated. But at least they’ve presented themselves and their beliefs.

The awful hashtag #releasethememo was trending on Twitter—a nod to Hannity and Rush and repeated efforts to delegitimize Robert Mueller’s work. Trump is still around 35 percent—which means his support hasn’t dwindled. The government will likely shut down. The reports of the president having an affair with a porn star seem to matter to no one.

On.

And on.

And on.

And on.

I’ve had many low moments over the past year, but this hit me hard. I mean, fuck—what’s the point of all this if people no longer care about decency? About decorum? About genuine public service? If an unintellectual conman like Donald Trump can walk through our norms, what value are those norms.

Glub.

But then … something hit me. Namely, this site. I started crazydana.com to make a difference locally. I think Dana Rohrabacher is a travesty. Not merely a poor excuse for a congressman, but a genuinely traitorous hack who has done little-to-nothing for the people he pretends to represent. He’s a spotlight-hogging absentee landlord. A shell of a shell. A lightweight unworthy of the title, “Congressman.”

And maybe, just maybe, crazydana.com is the best I can offer. See, if I can help (And you can help. And he can help. And she can help. And they can help) chip away at Rohrabacher; if this simple website, started by a sportswriter, can inform and alert people, then perhaps there’s importance. If we defeat Rohrabacher, we weaken Trump. We take out one of his enablers. In a way, it’s small potatoes. One man, one district. But stuff adds up. If Rohrabacher loses, and Darrel Issa’s seat goes blue, and a bunch of other seats go blue, we change the course. We right the sea.

I wasn’t able to attend, but yesterday afternoon there was a candidate forum for those desiring to run against Dana Rohrabacher in the 48th. The event was hosted by HB Huddle, and featured …

• Hans Keitstead

• Laura Oatman

• Harley Rouda

• Omar Siddiqui

And … eh … that’s it.

Now, it’s certainly possible some of the other Democratic candidates were invited and simply had scheduling conflicts. I reached out to a rep of Michael Kotick, and she confirmed he, too, was not extended an opportunity (which is truly odd—because his campaign is, unlike Tony’s, genuinely in the mix). One thing I know, with certainty, is that Anthony Zarkades was not on the list. Literally, he was barred from participating.

I’m not sure how to feel about this.

On the one hand, “Tony Z.” has almost zero chance of winning. He lacks money, he lacks political experience, he can come off as rude and a bit ornery. He skin seems to be as thick as tissue. In a world where neatly pressed shirts and crisp ties seize the day, he’s a bit of a crumpled oil rag.

And yet, he’s busting ass. The guy is, clearly, smart. He has a platform. He wants this very badly, and he’s taken the necessary steps to be included. Plus, if you look at the four invitees, they all have flaws. Many still see Harley as a Republican in Democratic clothes. Laura hasn’t raised nearly enough dough to compete with Dana. The Canadian-born Hans comes off as robotic and programed. Omar doesn’t even live in the district. So, yeah, Tony is (with the exception of Boyd Roberts) the longest of long shots.

But if we simply eliminate people from participating because of funding … who are we? What are we? What do we value? The election is still more than 10 months away. At this point, truly, we should be listening to the different voices, and honoring those who want a shot.

So we’re starting a new thing here at crazydana.com. On the 11th of every month, we’ll take a look at the upcoming election by ranking the candidates on the likeliness of a victory. This will almost certainly changes as time passes, as money changes hands, as endorsements are secured.

But here, on Jan. 11, is how we have it …

RANKED IN ORDER OF LIKELINESS TO WIN:

• 1. Dana Rohrabacher: This isn’t a fantasy website. We don’t exist to lie, to pump up, to embellish. So, if we’re being honest, Dana remains a huge frontrunner. He’ll have lots of money (he had $600,000 on hand as of late September. By comparison, Harley Rouda had $372k), he’ll have the support of the GOP and, most important, he’ll have incumbency. See—that’s the hardest part to overcome. An opponent can raise money, raise stature. But familiarity—especially in a congressional fight—is huge. And while many of us are hot and heated over this race, the vast majority of people (if we’re being honest) have no idea who Harley Rouda or Laura Oatman are.

• 2. Harley Rouda: It feels like Harley will be the guy. And, no, that doesn’t mean much at this point. But of the 854.7 Democrats running for this thing, Harley is the one who has established a certain air of inevitability. He’s smart, he’s polished, he’s well-spoken, he looks the part. The optics of him alongside weathered, crazy Dana works well.

• 3. Laura Oatman: Man, Laura has run a smart campaign thus far. She overcame some early hiccups to be in what seems to be a pretty strong spot. When this whole thing began, the Democratic Party wanted very little to do with her. This was, for their money, Hans Keirstead’s run to make. Literally, they urged Hans to run and did everything to boost his candidacy. Pardon the old sports writer in me, but it sort of reminds me of the 2012 Washington Redskins, who selected quarterback Robert Griffin III second overall, then used a fourth rounder on another QB, Kirk Cousins. Like Hans, RGIII was all the hype. Then, well, he started to suck. Oatman is Cousins.

• 4. Hans Keirstead: It just hasn’t worked. Maybe it’s the Canadian heritage. Maybe it’s the social awkwardness. Not sure. I remember being a kid and once finding a $100 bill by a toilet in New York City’s Grand Central Terminal. When I picked it up, it was just an advertisement disguised as a bill.

• 5. Omar Siddqui: Really nice guy, very polished. But I just don’t think it’s wise to run a guy who literally doesn’t live in the district. All the arguments can be made otherwise (has worked in the 48th forever; has a couch in his office), but none of that treads water when Rohrabacher and his henchmen are hitting you with a slew of geographical slams.

• 6. Paul Martin: Moderate Republican who has very little chance—unless the Democrats screw this up and somehow he slides into the general vs. Dana. Again, this is super unlikely. But one never knows.

• 7. Rachel Payne: So, Rachel just entered the race recently. And she’s certainly qualified. But it’s a little like a horse pulling up to the Kentucky Derby gate two seconds after the start. Can it happen? Sure—if everyone else collapses or is inflicted by universal blindness. But she has a shitload of ground to make up.

• 9. Scott Baugh: So, if Dana decides not to run, the former assemblyman/Orange County GOP chairman enters immediately. He has nearly $600,000 on hand, he’s a Republican, he seems sane. And, if he enters, he soars to the top of this list.

• 10. Boyd Roberts: Boyd has one path to victory. I don’t know what that path is. But it involves space aliens, a mass abduction and bags of carrots and celery.

There are few things more powerful in politics than a feel of inevitability.

What I mean is, when candidates participate in an election, it’s an if. “If I’m elected …” and “If you support me …” It all feels very hypothetical, because it is very hypothetical. One might win, one might lose. Hard to say.

Yet, if you can convince people that you will inevitably prevail, that feeling goes a long way. For example, in the 1980 Democratic primary Jimmy Carter, the incumbent president, was challenged by Sen. Ted Kennedy. And while Kennedy pushed and pushed and pushed, Carter repeatedly reminded people that he was the president. And Kennedy was merely an annoying gnat.

I digress.

Earlier tonight I saw this Tweet from Harley Rouda, and the language leapt from my screen …

Why?

Because we don’t know that Harley will be the one taking on Dana Rohrabacher. It could happen, but nobody’s sure. Yet by referring to the congressman as “My opponent,” he conveys a confidence that, I think, is cagey and wise.

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Why Dana Wins

There was once a movie, "The Distinguished Gentleman." It was about a Florida congressman named Jeff Johnson who dies in office. There's an election to replace him, and Eddie Murphy, playing a local conman named Thomas Jefferson Johnson, wins by running as "Jeff Johnson." He figured (rightly) that the deceased Johnson was re-elected so often because people became so used to his name that they never even considered his ruinous ideas.
Just a thought.

Point on Dana

To be clear, this is nothing personal against Dana Rohrabacher. There's no hate, no call for violence. Nothing of the sort. It is simply the calling out of a painfully misguided man whose vision for his district, state and country is—at best—insane. And—at worst—dangerous.

Please reach out to us via e-mail (crazydana@mail.com) or on Twitter @crazydana48