The Hill: Mark MellmanMark Mellman editorial from TheHill.comhttp://thehill.com/
Capitol Hill Publishing Corp., a subsidiary of News Communications, Inc.Mellman: Of emails and imagehttp://thehill.com/opinion/opinion/309108-mellman-of-emails-and-image
We’re accustomed to the trope that this year’s presidential election featured the two most unpopular candidates in history.It’s true, but it was not foreordained, at least not for Hillary Clinton, who, not so long ago, was the most popular public...rdickson@thehill.com (Mark Mellman)309108 at http://thehill.comTue, 06 Dec 2016 18:06:14 -0500Mark MellmanMellman: The revolt of the dispossessedhttp://thehill.com/opinion/mark-mellman/307971-mellman-the-revolt-of-the-dispossessed
How did the most unpopular presidential candidate in history (at least in the history of polling) accede to the highest office in the land?It matters that our constitutional system honors not the popular vote, which Hillary Clinton won, but...rdickson@thehill.com (Mark Mellman)307971 at http://thehill.comTue, 29 Nov 2016 17:41:14 -0500Mark MellmanMark Mellman: What happened to the polls?http://thehill.com/opinion/mark-mellman/306206-mark-mellman-what-happened-to-the-polls
Before diving into observations about the last Tuesday’s results, as a pollster, I feel compelled to write this first post-election column about the survey research misses.First, put the errors in perspective.A few weeks ago, I noted that over the...rdickson@thehill.com (Mark Mellman)306206 at http://thehill.comTue, 15 Nov 2016 18:35:11 -0500Mark MellmanMellman: Averaging your way to realityhttp://thehill.com/opinion/mark-mellman/303893-mellman-averaging-your-way-to-reality
Just how likely is it that the polls will be right?Notice first, I said, polls, plural, with an “s.” There is no particular reason any one poll should be “right” — except ours, of course. That’s what the statistical margin of error is all about...rdickson@thehill.com (Mark Mellman)303893 at http://thehill.comTue, 01 Nov 2016 19:26:23 -0400Mark MellmanMellman: Follow the leaderhttp://thehill.com/opinion/mark-mellman/302771-mellman-follow-the-leader
We think of “follow the leader” as a rather inane children’s game.It’s much more than that. In an adult version, it describes how many partisans go about deciding their views on public issues — they follow the course charted by the leader of...rdickson@thehill.com (Mark Mellman)302771 at http://thehill.comTue, 25 Oct 2016 17:20:56 -0400Mark MellmanMellman: Legitimacy: A crisis of governancehttp://thehill.com/opinion/mark-mellman/301639-mellman-legitimacy-a-crisis-of-governance
Perhaps we have reason to be complacent about the persistence of our democracy. It’s lasted nearly 230 years, through war, depression, recession, cultural change and even civil war. Still not perfect, it has, with fits and starts and setbacks,...rdickson@thehill.com (Mark Mellman)301639 at http://thehill.comTue, 18 Oct 2016 16:38:02 -0400Mark MellmanMellman: Searching for Sasquatchhttp://thehill.com/opinion/mark-mellman/300505-mellman-searching-for-sasquatch
Where to begin?Stranger things have never happened in presidential politics — at least in the modern era.A candidate for the highest office in the land gleefully describing his penchant for sexual assault on tape. Some 50 senators, governors and...rdickson@thehill.com (Mark Mellman)300505 at http://thehill.comTue, 11 Oct 2016 18:18:25 -0400Mark MellmanMellman: Changing patternshttp://thehill.com/opinion/mark-mellman/299299-mellman-changing-patterns
As a wise and wizened reporter once pointed out: “Buried deep inside that word ‘newspaper’ is the word ‘news.’ And inside that, you’ve got ‘new.’ ”This aphorism explains why some trends evident in this election are described as radical departures...rdickson@thehill.com (Mark Mellman)299299 at http://thehill.comTue, 04 Oct 2016 18:54:39 -0400Mark MellmanMark Mellman: Debating the debatehttp://thehill.com/opinion/mark-mellman/298182-mark-mellman-debating-the-debate
We enjoy believing debates are central determinants of election outcomes. They give campaigns a focus, journalists a hook around which to wrap their coverage and citizens the illusion that we render verdicts based on intellectual trial by...gevans@thehill.com (Mark Mellman)298182 at http://thehill.comTue, 27 Sep 2016 19:33:24 -0400Mark MellmanMellman: Sources of Trumpismhttp://thehill.com/opinion/mark-mellman/296935-mellman-sources-of-trumpism
Republicans have suddenly discovered the economic privations afflicting America’s middle class and those struggling to join it.Their newfound interest in people they argued for decades would benefit if only the rich were helped to get richer is not...rdickson@thehill.com (Mark Mellman)296935 at http://thehill.comTue, 20 Sep 2016 18:44:30 -0400Mark MellmanMellman: Honesty honestlyhttp://thehill.com/opinion/mark-mellman/295791-mellman-honesty-honestly
Pundits now regularly proclaim that Hillary Clinton has an almost singular and unique problem with voters who don’t think she’s honest or forthright. These pundits are wrong, both as a matter of fact and of voter perception.Nonetheless, the...rdickson@thehill.com (Mark Mellman)295791 at http://thehill.comTue, 13 Sep 2016 19:08:46 -0400Mark MellmanMellman: Weighing the oddshttp://thehill.com/opinion/mark-mellman/294686-mellman-weighing-the-odds
As we say good-bye to the summer and the party conventions fade in voters’ memories, polls suggest two very different sets of people will be disappointed come November: Republicans who thought this would be the year they recapture the White House...rdickson@thehill.com (Mark Mellman)294686 at http://thehill.comTue, 06 Sep 2016 17:34:14 -0400Mark MellmanMark Mellman: Trump’s lasting damagehttp://thehill.com/opinion/mark-mellman/287475-mark-mellman-trumps-lasting-damage
Nominating Donald Trump probably won’t change the Republican Party, but putting him atop the ticket will damage it. All the channels through which he could influence the future of the GOP will be closed to him. Trump does not lead an organized...gevans@thehill.com (Mark Mellman)287475 at http://thehill.comTue, 12 Jul 2016 18:57:09 -0400Mark MellmanMellman: Fundamentally flawedhttp://thehill.com/opinion/mark-mellman/286576-mellman-fundamentally-flawed
Over the last dozen years, I have often confessed to being a fundamentalist. This is not a statement of religious conviction, but rather an expression of my belief about what’s most important in presidential elections.While the daily flood of...rdickson@thehill.com (Mark Mellman)286576 at http://thehill.comTue, 05 Jul 2016 18:21:04 -0400Mark MellmanMellman: Hillary is no Brexithttp://thehill.com/opinion/mark-mellman/285239-mellman-hillary-is-no-brexit
I’m not quite sure how it happened — but it was fast. Somehow, in an instant, Brexit became Donald Trump and vice versa. Brexit’s victory, breathless commentators conjectured, made the presumptive GOP presidential nominee’s own win in the U.S....jdavis@thehill.com (Mark Mellman)285239 at http://thehill.comTue, 28 Jun 2016 18:03:54 -0400Mark MellmanMark Mellman: A study of Brexithttp://thehill.com/opinion/mark-mellman/284368-mark-mellman-a-study-of-brexit
Investors around the world just bet billions on British polls.“A rally in European stocks Monday propelled the regional benchmark to its best daily percentage performance in nearly 10 months after polls showed support for the U.K. remaining in the...gevans@thehill.com (Mark Mellman)284368 at http://thehill.comTue, 21 Jun 2016 18:59:08 -0400Mark Mellman