Wednesday, 28 August 2013

Investors and Traders will keep making loss, but are reluctant to use Technical Analysis.

No one can time the market. However Technical Analysis can atleast come close to it.

Investors and Trader who just look at the live rates and Company Balance sheet could never predict the ICICI bank fall at around 1200 plus levels.

Negative Divergence
ICICI Bank made a higher high on 28th May 2013 at 1238.40 immidiatley after the high of 1236.90 made on 17th May 2013. The MACD However was in a falling mode even though ICICI bank was rising.
(This was the 1st Negative signal and one should have exited)

MACD Enters negative Zone.
On 6th June 2013, The MACD entered the negative zone indicating another Sell signal.This time the price of ICICI bank was 1154.

Evening Star
There was a formation of Evening star on 22nd, 23rd and 24th July 2013 on the Daily chart indicating another big fall. The price on 24th July 2013 was 951.80. ICICI bank fell further to make a low of 788.90 on 20th August 2013.

Just Imagine if you exited at any of the signals generated, how lucky you would have been.

Nifty has retraced more than 61.8% and has found at his crucial Retracement level at 5183. (The Retracement level is drawn from 20th December 2011 to the high of 6229 of 20th May 2013.

It seems Nifty will try to rebound now at least for a while.Nifty has a nearest resistance at 5448 on the upside. The next Strong Resistance for Nifty is at 5576, from a gain a selling pressure can be expected.

The short term outlook for Nifty look a little bit positive as a Positive divergence is shown by the MACD Indicator on the daily chart.The Nifty has fallen drastically making lower lows every day, but comparatively the MACD was not making lower lows indicating positive divergence

This week, the Nifty had opened at 5499.40 and touched a low of 5118.85 yesterday on Wednesday, 28th August 2013. As per our prediction Nifty will face resistance at 5448. That means it will not able to cross the week's opening on the upper side.Only if this level is crossed on the upper side it can touch 5576.

Tuesday, 27 August 2013

Rupee plunged to an all-time low of 66.07 on Tuesday and shares slumped nearly 2 per cent after the lower house of Parliament approved a nearly $20 billion plan to provide cheap grain to the poor, raising concerns the country's fiscal deficit will blow out even further.

The rupee posted its biggest single-day decline in 23 months, falling as much as 66.07 against the dollar led by strong month-end dollar demand from importers and a weak opening in the domestic equity market.

At 01:50 p.m.; the partially convertible rupee was trading at 65.97, down 167 paise, against its previous close of 64.30 on Monday..

Finance Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram said on Tuesday the government would stick to its fiscal deficit target for the year, while announcing cabinet approval of power and infrastructure projects worth 1.83 trillion rupees ($28.38 billion).

Yet the comments failed to sway investors, with market watchers sceptical about India's ability to attract funds for infrastructure projects in an economy growing at a decade low of 5 per cent.

Friday, 23 August 2013

Tina Ambani, wife of Reliance Group chairman Anil Ambani, told the CBI court on Friday that she had no role in running any of the Reliance ADA group companies, distancing herself from the multi-billion dollar 2G spectrum scam.

Statements of the former film star mirrored most of what her husband had said a day earlier while testifying in the same court. Like the billionaire industrialist, Tina Ambani also denied any knowledge about six companies under investigation by the CBI as part of one of India's most tracked financial scandals involving alleged irregularities in the grant of spectrum and licence in 2008.

However, CBI special court judge OP Saini felt her answers were more forthright, prompting him to remark: "You are better than Ambani sahib."

The CBI had been hoping to use the couple's statements to nail group company Reliance Telecom and three of its executives for their roles in flouting rules while applying for telecom licences in 2007. The CBI's stance was that since both held responsible positions in the group, they would have been aware of the actions of RTL and its executives.

"I am a housewife, run a hospital and do a lot of social work," Ambani said at the start of her 90-minute examination. "I have never been associated with any company of this group."

Wednesday, 21 August 2013

Since many Days Financial technologies have been in news, though for wrong reasons. Many Investors witnessed an erosion of their wealth who held the stares of FT.

After The NSEL news was made public, FT shares plunged like anything on the downside.

When the news was declared, the stock was down in Intraday and made a low of 180. The previous day the stock was trading at 539.

However if one had used Technical Analysis provided by www.intellectsoftwares.com, the sell signal was generated long back by MACD Indicator on 18th December 2012 followed by a Strong Negative Divergence. This is a strong example of Technical Analysis proving to be right

The FT Stock is now trading at 133 as on 21st August 2013

It seems that one can be still short with a Tight Trailing Stop loss of 5 day EMA.

Tuesday, 20 August 2013

Rupee today hit a fresh bottom below Rs 100 level against the British pound, even as the markets remain focused on the Indian currency hitting a record low of sub Rs 64-level against the US dollar.

The rupee hit a new low of Rs 100.35 against the British Pound ( GBP) early this morning, as weak domestic fundamentals including ballooning current account deficit weighed down on the Indian currency.

After a modest recovery from its bottom, rupee was seen trading at Rs 99.7 against the British pound by mid-day trade.

The rupee has depreciated by about 25 per cent in the past three months, from close to Rs 83 in mid-May, while it was even higher at about Rs 80 against the British Pound in March.At close to Rs 100 level, the British pound is the most expensive against the Indian rupee among major foreign currencies across the world, followed by euro (Rs 85), Swiss franc (Rs 69), US dollar (Rs 63.7), Canadian dollar (Rs 61.5), Australian dollar (Rs 57.8), New Zealand dollar (Rs 50.9) and Singapore dollar (Rs 49.8).

Against the US dollar too, the rupee today hit a fresh low below Rs 64-level and slipped to as low as Rs 64.11 before marginally recovering to Rs 63.72 by mid-day in the Interbank Foreign Exchange (Forex) market.

The rupee had recorded the decade's worst single-day fall of 148 paise to close at record low of 63.13 yesterday, while it dropped further by about 98 paise this morning.

Tuesday, 13 August 2013

Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd today reported 13.46 per cent increase in its consolidated net profit to Rs 1,164.6 crore for the first quarter ended June 30, 2013, riding on good performance of its farm equipment segment and cost control measures.

The company had posted a consolidated net profit of Rs 1,026.4 crore for the same period previous fiscal.

Company's consolidated income increased to Rs 19,356.03 crore in the April-June quarter, from Rs 17,670.81 crore during the same period last year, Mahindra & Mahindra said in a filing to the BSE.

The company's revenue from its automotive segment stood at Rs 5,860.98 crore as against Rs 5,822.52 crore in the year-ago quarter.

The farm segment registered revenue of Rs 3,899.52 crore as against Rs 3,078.29 crore in the same quarter last fiscal.

Monday, 12 August 2013

DLF Ltd rallied as much as 6.8 per cent in morning trade on Tuesday in a weak market, a day after the real-estate major reported good set of numbers which were above consensus estimate, both on revenue and profitability front.

At 09:20 a.m.; DLF was trading 6.06 per cent higher at Rs 146.90. The stock has hit a low of Rs 142.90 and a high of Rs 148.10 in trade today.

Although the real-estate major reported 38 per cent fall in the consolidated net profit at Rs 181.19 crore for the quarter ended June 30 on higher expenses, its top line grew by 4 per cent YoY.

The company had posted a net profit of Rs 292.79 crore in the year-ago period.

On the top-line front, DLF's revenue grew by 4.0% y-o-y to Rs 2,314 crore in 1QFY2014; which was above consensus estimate of Rs 2,063 cr. EBIDTAM came in at 39.6 per cent in 1QFY2014 which was above street estimate of 37.0 per cent.

The rupee opened weaker on Tuesday on the back of a contraction in factory output growth in June, with the government's additional measures to curb the current account deficit and attract foreign fund inflows having little impact.

Traders said the measures were largely in line and there was scepticism about whether these foreign fund flows would actually come in.

India's industrial production contracted a higher-than-expected 2.2 percent in June from a year earlier, government data showed on Monday.

The partially convertible rupee was trading at 61.52/53 per dollar, weaker than its close of 61.2750/2850 on Monday and not far from a record low of 61.80 hit last week.

Dashing hopes of a recovery, industrial production contracted 2.2 per cent in June, the second straight monthly drop, on account of a poor show by the manufacturing, mining and power sectors and a decline in production of capital goods.

Factory output measured in terms of the Index of Industrial Production had contracted 2 per cent in June last year, as per the data released by the Central Statistical Organisation.

Meanwhile, factory output for May was revised downwards to a decline of 2.82 per cent from a provisional 1.6 per cent dip in production.

During April-June this year, factory output contracted 1.1 per cent, down from a decline of 0.2 per cent in the same period last fiscal.

The manufacturing sector, which constitutes over 75 per cent of the index, contracted 2.2 per cent in June compared with a 3.2 per cent drop a year earlier.

During April-June, the sector saw a decline of 1.2 per cent compared with a contraction of 0.8 per cent in the period last year.

Mining output declined 4.1 per cent in June, compared with a dip of 1.1 per cent. In April-June, the sector declined 4.5 per cent compared with a contraction of 1.6 per cent.

Power generation was flat in June compared with a growth of 8.8 per cent in same month in 2012. Power generation in the first quarter grew 3.5 per cent compared with an expansion of 6.4 per cent.

Output of capital goods contracted 6.6 per cent during the month compared with a decline of 27.7 per cent a year earlier.

During April-June, capital goods production dipped 3.3 per cent compared with a production drop of 20.1 per cent in same period last year.

Among the 22 industry groups in the manufacturing sector, 13 recorded negative growth in June.

Consumer goods output contracted 2.3 per cent in June, compared with expansion of 3.7 per cent in the same month last year.

SBI today reported 13.6 per cent decline in standalone net profit to Rs 3,241.08 crore for the quarter ended June 30, 2013, due to increased provisioning for rising non-performing assets.

The country's largest bank had a standalone net profit of Rs 3,752 crore in the same quarter last year.

Total income increased to Rs 36,192.62 crore in the quarter, from Rs 32,415 crore in the same period a year ago.The bank's gross non-performing assets (NPAs) rose to 5.56 per cent of total advances at the end of June, against 4.99 per cent a year ago, reflecting the impact of slowing economy.

Shares of SBI were trading down by 2.65 per cent at Rs 1,617.35 on the BSE in afternoon.

On consolidated basis, SBI's net profit fell by 12 per cent to Rs 4,298.56 crore for the quarter ended June 30, from Rs 4,874.7 crore in the same period a year ago.

Total income on consolidated basis increased to Rs 52,502.29 crore as against Rs 46,839 crore in the April-June quarter of 2012-13.

Net NPAs of the bank rose to Rs 29,989.84 crore (2.83 per cent) at the end of the first quarter, as against Rs 20,324.01 crore (2.22 per cent) in the year ago.

Tech Mahindra today reported 27 per cent jump in consolidated net profit at Rs 686.3 crore for the quarter ended June 30, 2013, led by broad-based growth across sectors like manufacturing and media and entertainment.

This is against a net profit of Rs 540.5 crore in the same period last year.

Tech Mahindra, part of the Mahindra & Mahindra Group, saw revenues at Rs 4,103.2 crore in the reported period, up 21.7 per cent as compared to Rs 3,372.7 crore in the April-June 2012 quarter.

On sequential basis, the consolidated net profit was up 36.2 per cent (before exceptional reversal of impairment provision) as the same stood at Rs 637.7 crore in the January-March 2013 quarter.

In USD terms, revenues stood at USD 724 million (up 17.7 per cent year-on-year), while net profit was at USD 121 million (up 22.3 per cent y-o-y).

Tuesday, 6 August 2013

HDFC Bank opened at 631 and is currently trading at 607.It made a high of 631.35 and made a low of 606.80.

The major support is at 602.55. Lets hope that HDFC bank does no close below this level as this can be more bearish news for the stock.If HDFC Bank takes support at 602.55 levels then the stock is expected to give a Bounce Back.

ICICI Bank

ICICI Bank has a strong support at 866.75 and a buying pressure can be seen at these levels.The Low made by ICICI bank today is 876.60.As of now it appears that ICICI Bank will not give a close below 866.75 in the coming days and will stay firm above this level.

SBI

SBI looks bearish and it seems that SBI can go down still further to touch the levels of 1572.

Sunday, 4 August 2013

Hello,

As we had analysed and Predicted on 30th July 2013, that nifty may try to give a bounce back from 5664 levels,it can be observed that though this level was breached on the downside on Friday and today (Monday) Nifty has not given a close below this level. Today's Low was 5661.50 as at 12 pm and Nifty was at 5700.55

Disclaimer: The Above quoted views are just an indication how the Nifty Index may move in the coming days based on Technical Analysis and in no way suggests any trading or Investing tip.

Friday, 2 August 2013

Extending last session's steep fall, shares of Financial Technologies India and Multi Commodity Exchange of India on Friday plummeted by as much as 45 per cent amid problems at group entity National Spot Exchange Ltd.

Making a weak opening, shares of FTIL further tanked 45 per cent to Rs 105.5 -- its fresh 52-week low on the BSE.

In the previous trade, the stock had fallen by as much as 65 per cent.

FTIL-promoted MCX shares were locked in lower circuit as they shed 20 per cent.

Over the past two days, the market value of FTIL has eroded by Rs 1,799 crore (Rs 17.99 billion) to Rs 696 crore (Rs 6.96 billion), while MCX has seen a slump of Rs 1,174 crore (Rs 11.74 billion) to Rs 2,089 crore (Rs 20.89 billion) in its m-cap.

A major crisis erupted at National Spot Exchange on Thursday after it suspended most trades on its platform, prompting the government to order an enquiry by the commodity regulator FMC, while Sebi also began a separate probe amid a crash in shares of two listed group companies.

The government said it is seriously looking into the matter and has sought a report from Forward Markets Commission within a day.

The consumer affairs ministry, finance ministry and Sebi are keeping a close watch on the situation, Food and Consumer Affairs Minister K V Thomas said on Thursday.

National Spot Exchange Ltd, that provides an electronic platform to farmers and traders for spot trading in farm products and bullion among others, said it would meet all obligations towards brokers and clients who have traded on its platform. Speculations, however, were rife about potential default on payouts running into Rs 5,000-6,000 crore (Rs 50-60 billion).

The bourse blamed "loss of trading interest" and "abrupt structural changes in marketplace" for suspension of trade.

However, there have been speculations that the bourse did not have adequate stock of commodities to make the delivery.

NSEL said it is deferring settlement for all pending contracts for 15 days, raising concerns about potential defaults and liquidity problems at brokers and clients level.

The bank has reported a rise of 9.51% in its net profit at Rs
560.22 crore for the quarter, as compared to Rs 511.59 crore for the same
quarter in the previous year.

Total income from operation of the bank has
increased by 16.04% to Rs 7613.53 crore for the quarter under review as
compared to Rs 6561.10 crore for the quarter ended June 30, 2012.

Gross non-performing assets (NPAs) improved to 3.50% in the
April-June quarter as against 3.76% in the same quarter previous year while,
net NPAs decreased to 1.96%.

Technical Analysis

Union Bank of India Stock made a High of 134.15 and low of 120.60 as on 1st August 2013,Thursday at 2.00 pm.The stock is trading at 124.45.It has made a pattern of Bearish Harami with a higher bottom and higher top.The MACD is negative and the RSI in over sold zone.The stock can move up in the coming days only if it crosses and stays comfortably above 135.If it stays closes above 135 in the coming days it can touch 150 on the upper side.

Mahindra & Mahindra reports 21% fall in July Sales

Mahindra
& Mahindra (M&M), the country’s leading SUV manufacturer has reported
its auto sales numbers for July 2013 which stood at 37,096 units, down by
21.17% as against 47,059 units during July 2012.

The
Passenger Vehicles segment (which includes the UVs and Verito) registered a
drop of 29.44%, having sold 15,530 units in July 2013, as against 22,011 units
during July 2012. The company’s domestic sales stood at 34490 units during July
2013, as against 42,799 units during July 2012.

The 4
wheeler commercial segment which includes the passenger and load vehicles
registered a a contraction of 6.45%, having sold 13,740 units as against 14,688
units in the same period last year, while sale of 3 wheeler segment too
declined by 12.80% by selling 4,490 units in July 2013 against 5,149 in
July,2012. Exports for the month of July 2013 declined by 39% stood at 2606
units.

Technical AnalysisMahindra & Mahindra opened at 912.10 and currently trading at 873.90.It had made a high of 923.15 and a low of 870.15.The update is as on 1st August 2013, Thursday at 2.15 pm.Though Mahindra & Mahindra has made a low of 870.15, it has taken a support at its rising trendline on the daily chart.863 will act as a good support, below which Mahindra & Mahindra is still bad.The Macd is trying cut its Trigger line on the upper side.

The company
has reported 58.49% rise in its net profit at Rs 663.15 crore for the quarter
as compared to Rs 418.42 crore for the same quarter in the previous year. Total
income of the company has increased by 122.45% at Rs 1804 crore for quarter
under review as compared to Rs 810.94 crore for the quarter ended June 30, 2012.

Technical AnalysisAdani ports has made a Bullish Engulfing line on the daily chart. It has made a high of 135.85 in Intraday. It made a low of 116.65.The stock had breached a rising trend on the downside by opening below the trendline but later by 2.15 pm is above the trendline

Disclaimer: The Above quoted views are just an indication based on Technical Analysis and in no way suggests any trading or Investing tip.