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The U.S. Dollar (USD) and the Japanese Yen (JPY) are the two most dominant national currencies used in Bitcoin/fiat trading. But while the USD has always dominated the market, it appears BTC/JPY may now be on the verge of overtaking the dollar.

Most Bitcoin/Fiat Trades Denominated in USD or JPY

The USD is in many ways the de facto global currency for business and trade. It is the most popular currency in the forex market, and as such, it is no surprise to find that BTC/USD 00 is one of the most commonly used trading pairs.

According to the cryptocurrency market indexing platform Coinhills, BTC/USD accounted for more than 48 percent of all Bitcoin/fiat trades over the last 24 hours. JPY comes as a close second with more than 47.23 percent of all such transactions within the same time frame.

Together, both account for 95.87 percent making them by far the most popular fiat currencies used in BTC trading. The popularity of the BTC/USD pair isn’t exactly surprising given that Tether (USDT), the most popular stablecoin in the market is pegged to the USD.

Based on Coinhills’ data, JPY is becoming a firm favorite for Bitcoin traders. Back in November, Bitcoinstreported on a study by Cryptocompare that showed a 50 percent dominance for USD in the BTC/fiat market. At the time, JPY accounted for only 21 percent. Though it is important to note that Coinhills’ data covers only 24 hours. The research by CryptoCompare was for the whole of November 2018.

Meanwhile, Bitcoinistreported last week that Asian markets tend to have a bigger impact on BTC price than the US and Europe, according to cryptocurrency research firm Mosaic. If the trend holds, Japan, in particular, could give the USD a run for its money when it comes to fiat trading pairs. The land of the rising sun is known for its crypto-friendly laws and embracing BTC commerce with major retailers accepting bitcoin both at brick and mortar stores and online.

BTC/KRW Surprisingly at Two Percent

Leading the rest of the minor currencies is the Korean Won (KRW), which accounts for two percent. Data from the CryptoCompare study put the BTC/KRW trading pair at 16 percent of the Bitcoin/fiat market.

The figures from Coinhills might indicate a cooling off of trading activity in the Korean market. Between October and November 2018, BTC trading to KRW dominated the fiat spot trading for the top-ranked cryptocurrency. Sometimes, the BTC/KRW pair accounted for about half of all daily Bitcoin fiat spot trading.

Other lesser traded fiats include the Euro (EUR), the Polish Złoty (PLN) and the Russian Ruble (RUB). These account for 1.35 percent, 0.15 percent, and 0.11 percent, respectively. Outside of the Americas, Europe, and Asia, the most popular BTC/fiat pairs are the South African Rand (ZAR – 0.03 percent) and the Australian Dollar (AUD – 0.03 percent).

Do you think the Japanese Yen can upstage the U.S. Dollar as the dominant BTC/fiat trading pair? Share below!

Crowdfunding platform Patreon is grappling with fiat currency centralization after MasterCard demanded it must block the account of a prominent US author and several others.

Spencer: Patreon ‘Axed’ Me

Citing an email from the company in August, Robert Spencer, who penned multiple books about countering Jihad and advised law enforcement agencies, said it had “axed” him and he could no longer put contributed funds to any use.

“I’ve been axed from Patreon, without explanation, warning or notice – no doubt as part of the ongoing efforts of the Left to deny all platforms to those who reject its agenda,” he wrote on Twitter. “To those who supported me there, thank you, and I’m sorry we couldn’t follow through on plans.”

Responding publicly, Patreon denied it had chosen to ban Spencer, alleging that “unfortunately Mastercard required” it to “remove” his account.

Why does MasterCard have political opinions, and why are they enforcing them on a granular basis? Walking antritrust violation https://t.co/a5cq5oFgve

Patreon has since gained negative publicity for further bans, including last week’s move against podcast host Sam Harris.

A History Of Censorship

It remains unknown what had led to the decision, with commentators from both within and outside the cryptocurrency community immediately accusing the payment processor of censorship.

“Trusted third parties are security holes (a phrase coined by Bitcoin pioneer Nick Szabo). Escape through bitcoin,” one wrote, while a popular response to the Twitter thread accused Patreon of providing a “fairly lame excuse.”

“Your agreements clearly say nothing about Mastercard. So what gives?” it reads.

Are you saying that this 3rd Party has control over who you support and protect, and who you do not? Sounds like you’ve set a terrible precedent.

Patreon is far from the first company to fall foul of payment networks. As Bitcoinistreported, PayPal has regularly blocked or limited activities of Bitcoin businesses and users over the years.

In October, the practice continued, PayPal banning censorship-resistant social media platform Gab several months after US exchange Coinbase did the same. Coinbase also targeted WikiLeaks in April this year.

Crypto pundits have become visibly more irked by censorship policies this year, calling for mass boycotts of payment processors and other platforms such as Twitter in favor of politically-neutral open-source payments alternatives such as Bitcoin.

What do you think about Patreon blocking Robert Spencer? Let us know in the comments below!

Lightning Network Sees Parabolic Rise

Statistics from monitoring resource 1ML.com confirmed the record capacity for payments at press time, with the number of accessible nodes also rocketing 13.7 percent and channels close to 25 percent.

The figures cap a period of constant improvements for Lightning, which has only added to its growth in both technical prowess and popularity in recent weeks and months.

Last week, the sale of what became known as the “cheapest work of art in history” using an LN payment sparked renewed applause for the technology.

Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream, whose technology facilitated the sale, subsequently claimed that the cost of the microscopic artwork was cheaper than a single grain of sand at 1 millisatoshi ($0.00000004143).

Bitcoin ‘Not Going To Zero’

Lightning’s achievements were just some of the encouraging signs Bitcoin remains in a stronger technical position than ever in its history, despite the Bitcoin price 00 continuing to hover around $4000.

Further advances came in areas such as block propagation, the time transactions take to reach network nodes, which roughly halved through 2018.

A robust technical basis has become a key argument for proponents combating claims Bitcoin will ultimately trend to zero following this year’s extended bear market.

Other aspects, including institutional uptake of Bitcoin for trading, also see regular attention, this week from crypto-focused venture capital firm Dragonfly Capital Partners.

“Bitcoin could maybe fall as low as $2,000, or even $1,000, but not $0. And that’s a milestone for an asset,” managing partner Alex Pack toldForbes December 23.

“For something like bitcoin, which is a landmark in the history of money, it has become a more dependable store of value. People buying and using it have got to be confident it’s not going to zero.”

Last week, Bitcoinist reported on a definitive bear market reversal occurring around the next block reward halving, set for May 2020.

What do you think about the Lightning Network’s growth? Let us know in the comments below!

As the final week before Christmas comes to a close, the cryptocurrency market closes out a well needed ‘Santa Rally’ to the envy of the traditional markets, we take a closer look at what happened with the top cryptos and if an end is in sight to the twelve-month bear market.

Christmas Santa Rally for Crypto

The total cryptocurrency market cap managed to find support around the $100bn valuation level last week and rallied hard to close up around 30% at $130bn with a large bullish engulfing candle and a noticeable uptick in volume. A move of such positive magnitude has not been seen since the first week of April 2018 and it certainly feels a like long time in the cryptocurrency world.

Moving into the early hours of Monday morning, the market did not let up steam and pushed ahead with another 10% towards $143bn. While this goes some way towards signaling that buyers are returning to the market and that demand at these prices may outweigh supply, there is a significant amount of work to be done before we can say with conviction that this market – which has suffered staggering losses of $650bn (87%) – has bottomed.

Christmas Eve gains across the board

Each of the top cryptocurrencies saw significant gains, with XRP 00 being the biggest mover over 20%. Notable gains were seen across the board, with six of the top ten coins making double-digit gains and tether falling as people ditched the USD equivalent for the soaring cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin Daily Chart

After finding its legs just north of $3k, the market leader, Bitcoin, has found some resistance around the 23.6% retracement level at $4k. But it convincingly broke out of this overnight and is now eyeing $4.4k, which is where significant resistance was previously found after a bounce following the initial test of the mid $3ks.

This has a high probability of proving to be a significant level of resistance with a backtest of $4k, which must now turn from previous resistance to support.

For this market to show real signs of interim bullishness, however, Bitcoin price really needs to see a convincing attempt to break $4.5k on the first try. Should BTC be able to consolidate around this level, the bulls will be eyeing just north of $5.2k at the 61.8% retracement of the fall from $6.5k where there will be significant profit taking and short interest.

While Bitcoin and many of the other cryptos have has managed to provide some relief for investors and savvy dip buyers, this market has a lot of work to do to become bullish.

The high probability is that Bitcoin will struggle to retake the $6k and will need to spend some time holding and building a base above $3k. There is also still a week to go for some investors to crystallize losses and recognize them on their tax returns, which may still have a downward effect on the market.

So while the much needed ‘Santa rally’ has brought some Christmas cheer to the crypto markets, traders will be looking for signs of strength, with all of the coins needing to find higher highs and proving resistance at each of the key Fibonacci levels can turn to support with at the first time of asking.

Does Bitcoin price suggest it is now a buyers market? Where is the bottom? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below.

[Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are the personal opinion of the author and do not reflect the views of Bitcoinist. The information in the article should not be taken as financial advice.]

The creator of altcoin Bitcoin Private (BTCP) was battling accusations his project was a “scam” December 24 after an investigation revealed over 2 million ‘secret’ coins.

Coinmetrics: There Are 2.04M ‘Extra’ BTCP

BTCP 00, a so-called “fork merge” of the Bitcoin and ZClassic blockchains, fell 20 percent after research group Coinmetrics published the information Sunday.

After analyzing the BTCP blockchain, the company claims, it became apparent an extra 2.04 million coins were mined during its genesis – likely unknown to miners, users and perhaps most developers.

Known as a “covert premine,” the tokens were stored in a “shielded pool.”

“Three hundred thousand units of the covert premine were moved out of the shielded pool towards what appear to be exchanges,” a summary of the investigation continues.

Ultimately the lack of uptake of BTCP by the recipients of the airdrop meant that those additional 300k transparent units today represent close to 10% of the BTCP supply in circulation, with 1.80M covertly minted units remaining in the shielded pool.

Caught By Surprise?

The response from developers and creator Rhett Creighton, who also led the formation of ZClassic from ZCash, differed.

Creighton was first to respond to Coinmetrics, writing on Twitter he thought BTCP had suffered a “covert inflation attack.” He subsequently deleted the tweet.

From my recollection, it was a bounty placed by Rhett and the code was merged by Rhett when he was acting as Lead Developer.

In an update, Creighton meanwhile said he had “not been involved with the Bitcoin Private project for many months.”

“I never wrote any software for it. I was never paid or given any BTCP for free,” he continued.

I have no knowledge of who may or may not have been involved in the inflation hack.

He subsequently faced calls from well-known pundits that he was a “scammer” and even “deserved some years in prison.”

The word "scammer" is overused in crypto, but it's rarely more fitting than for you, Rhett Creighton @HeyRhett. You deserve some years in prison to think about your life choices. pic.twitter.com/JhP6qOSq9q

Consumers remain cautious about the impact of hard forks in the current climate following the debacle surrounded that of another Bitcoin fork, Bitcoin Cash (BCH).

Splitting into two chains in November, BCH and its new spin-off Bitcoin Cash SV (BSV) entered a bitter conflict in order to woo miners and build a reputation despite growing controversy about their technical prowess.

What do you think about the possible Bitcoin Private covert premine? Let us know in the comments below!

An ‘unorthodox prediction’ of mining difficulty increases puts the bitcoin price somewhere around $17,000 in 2020 — due to the possible power law relationship between the two.

Bitcoin price and difficulty ‘power law relationship’

Twitter user @100trillionUSD is back again with another intriguing chart — this time plotting the relationship between BTC price 00 and expected bitcoin mining difficulty in the coming years.

The previous graph visualized the relationship between the bitcoin mining reward halving and its impact on price over time, plotting the months before the halving event took place. This time the focus was on mining difficulty and price, since manyanalysts consider it to be inextricably linked to network hash rate.

“Price follows hashrate,” said Max Keiser earlier this year. Adding that it’s been his “mantra” since bitcoin was at $3.

Mining is undoubtedly profitable when the hash rate is rising. It also means miners are confident in the future of Bitcoin if they are adding hardware to scale up their operations. However, a high hash rate also causes the Bitcoin mining difficulty to increase. This makes the mining process more resource-intensive as more hash power is needed to achieve the same results as at lower difficulty levels.

If the hash rate is too high relative to the price at which miners can sell their mined bitcoin (as we’ve seen this year), the most unprofitable miners will likely drop out. They may sell their equipment or simply turn off their rigs until the price recovers or it becomes easier to mine as difficulty adjusts.

“Based on the poll results on bitcoin difficulty and the possible power law relationship between bitcoin price and difficulty (see formula below), an unorthodox prediction of the 2020 bitcoin price would be: $17,317,” explains 100trillionUSD.

Overall, 85 percent of respondents believe the difficulty will increase 10-100 times in the next two years. Meanwhile, only 10 percent think this is the beginning of the end for Bitcoin mining frequently referred to as the ‘death spiral’ (more about this later).

The biggest share of respondents (59 percent) expects the difficulty to rise 10x between today and the end of 2020. A smaller group (27 percent), however, believe the increase could be as high as 100X, which would translate into a price above $28,000.

Granted, the poll sample size was rather small with just over 250 votes. Nevertheless, mining difficulty is an important factor to consider for not only predicting BTC price but also evaluating the state of the network as a whole.

Difficulty Drops But No ‘Death Spiral’

Bitcoinist recently reported that the Bitcoin network mining difficulty just had another downward adjustment to lower price. The biggest in seven years, in fact, amid a year-long bear market that saw an 85 percent drop in market capitalization from its all-time high in late 2017.

But contrary to many ‘experts’ equating a break in the trend to the start of a mining ‘death spiral,’ the difficulty adjustment is an important counterbalance for the Bitcoin network. In other words, the adjusting difficulty (every 2016 blocks) relative to hash rate is a feature that enables the Bitcoin network to find the equilibrium for mining profitability.

What’s more, this is similar to what central banks do by raising and lowering interest rates with changing market conditions. However, in Bitcoin’s case, the adjustment is entirely baked into the code and thus, entirely predictable.

Is mining difficulty a good metric to consider when predicting price? Share your thoughts below!

Argentina ends the year on a Bitcoin high, as Athena Bitcoin Argentina rolls out seven Bitcoin ATMs (BATMs) with more to come. This now makes it the country with the fourth highest number of BATMs in Latin America.

Argentina Getting More Bitcoin ATMs

Before 2018, Argentina was faring rather badly in terms of BATM numbers, with only two in the whole country. Both of these were in the capital, Buenos Aries, although one was a very cool looking ‘arcade‘ machine, which also acted as an educational tool.

One of the designers of the arcade ATM, Santiago Molins, is now Director of Innovation at Athena Bitcoin. His vision for a Bitcoin-savvy Argentina is clearly a lot larger in scope.

The company has installed five new machines since September, in high traffic locations like shopping malls and Walmart stores. These are all in Buenos Aries, and Molins says there are another two devices not yet showing on CoinATMRadar.

He added that before the end of 2018, they will install another device in the nearby city of La Plata. And then in January. Molins explained:

The idea is to put in the first and second week of January the last ones that we have left in the laboratory, which would be two or three more.At this moment we are covering the Federal Capital, Buenos Aires and its surroundings.

Why The Sudden Increase?

Certainly, the jump from two Bitcoin ATMs to twelve or thirteen is a fairly impressive gain. The reasoning behind it, however, is somewhat less impressive, as sadly Argentina is going through a similar financial crisis to Venezuela.

While in humanitarian terms, the situation is a far cry from Venezuela’s economic turmoil, inflation in the country is rampant. LocalBitcoins volumes have spiked, as residents flock to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in an attempt to protect their savings.

Expect to see a further influx of BATMs in the next year if the Argentinian economy doesn’t get any better.

But What About The 4000 ATMs Promised?

A very good point. In May, Bitcoinist reported that easing of regulations was set to see an explosion of ATMs across the country. US firm Odyssey touted a pre-agreed 4000 of the machines and claimed to have already installed 200 the previous year.

Apparently, that was all talk and no trousers. Back in October, Odyssey was still supposedly planning 150 ATMs by the end of this year, of which 80% were to be operational by the end of January 2019. This was to be followed by about 1600 BATMs by the end of next year.

Seems it’s best to count the devices on the ground, rather than the ones in some executives head.

Cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex has announced it will support trading of USD denominated stablecoin Tether (USDT) against fiat USD from Friday.

Bitfinex Hedging A Hedge

The curious decision, which the exchange revealed in a blog post just hours before the pair went live, appears to be the first of its kind in the cryptocurrency industry.

Each unit of USDT is notionally backed by 1 USD, and the stablecoin is designed to be used as a cryptographic hedge against volatile assets without the need to convert into fiat.

The exchange rate of USDT 00, in reality, tends to fluctuate slightly around $1. For example, this year saw Tether price drop to as low as $0.85 during a period of high volatility.

Bitfinex’s tacit admission that USDT is insufficient as a stable alternative to USD is made all the more unusual by the fact that the platform and Tether share the same CEO.

“Today, adding margin trading on USDT/USD pair will not only allow for more efficient price discovery, but in an important move for risk management, unlock the ability to hedge the exposure taken on stablecoins,” officials wrote in the blog post.

Along with a dedicated lending market, USDT will be available as collateral for margin positions.

Tether-Bitfinex Media Rumors

The move comes days after an investigation by Bloomberg allegedly put to rest rumors that Tether did not hold full USD reserves for its token supply.

Such rumors had abounded during 2018 since both Tether and Bitfinex received subpoenas from US regulators late last year and had grown to include accusations the latter was insolvent.

Last month, Tether succeeded in switching banking partners to Bahamas-based Deltec, capping separate scrutiny of the financial buoyancy of its original banking partner Noble Bank.

A wealth of both USD and other stablecoins has come to market in recent months, with exchanges adding multiple assets in a bid to provide users with options against rapidly declining major crypto tokens.

What do you think about Bitfinex launching trading of Tether against USD? Let us know in the comments below!

Facebook, the world’s largest social media website has been reportedly working on a stablecoin to allow WhatsApp users to transfer money. The company’s initial focus is supposedly the remittance market in India.

Facebook’s Stablecoin

The social media mogul is developing a stablecoin pegged to the US dollar, Bloomberg reports, citing sources who have asked not to be named.

Purportedly, the company intends to use the cryptocurrency to allow WhatsApp users to transfer money. According to the report, Facebook’s initial target will be the remittance market in India.

WhatsApp was acquired by Facebook back in 2014. The popular messaging platform is purportedly popular in India, boasting over 200 million users. Bloomberg also reports that the country leads the world in terms of remittances as people have sent home $69 billion in 2017 alone.

A Challenging Road Ahead

Facebook’s foray into the field of blockchain was attested back in May when the head of their Messenger platform David Marcus announced the formation of a “small” group to “explore how to best leverage Blockchain across Facebook, starting from scratch.”

A Facebook spokesman said a few days ago:

Like many other companies, Facebook is exploring ways to leverage the power of blockchain technology. […] This new small team is exploring many different applications. We don’t have anything further to share.

However, the launch of the purported stablecoin may still be far off. According to the sources, the company is still working on the strategy, including a plan for custody assets or regular currencies, which would be held to protect the value of the stablecoin.

Commenting on the matter was Arran Stewart, co-founder, and CVO of a blockchain-powered recruitment company, who also identified potential hurdles in Facebook’s plan:

There are many hurdles with creating effective use of blockchain technology, especially on such a big of scale as Facebook. I would imagine that their approach may be a private hyper ledger fabric system for recording user profile data, potentially for the purposes of security but there are also many other things that Facebook maybe considering – such as becoming a merchant and offering the ability for one user to send money to another or even the purchase of goods or services through the Facebook platforms.

Others, such as software programmer Udi Wetheimer, questioned Facebook’s motives in having their own stablecoin. Thought adoption of virtual currency by a social media giant like Facebook could be a good way to onramp new Bitcoin users, he noted.

Maybe I’m too stupid to understand why Facebook would want to issue a backed fiatcoin on some blockchain when they already have a functioning remittance product in India.

Whatever I hope they go through with it and that it becomes popular. Could be a useful way to buy Bitcoin

With events like SEC approval for Bitcoin ETFs and the introduction of cryptocurrency derivatives, it is easy to imagine the market being driven by news out of the United States. However, new research suggests that Asia, and not the West, is the dominant driver of Bitcoin price and cryptocurrency markets.

Western Focus Might be Misleading

Jay Clayton, the Chairman of the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) commented back in June 2018 as part of his comments about the Commission’s stance on whether cryptocurrencies where securities or not, saying:

We’ve (the SEC) been doing this for a long time, and we’ve built a $19 trillion economy, a securities market that is the envy of the world, following these rules.

While it is true that the Western hemisphere exerts a lot of dominance over the mainstream asset market, the same doesn’t necessarily apply to Bitcoin and the altcoin market. However, it isn’t unusual to see US-based “trading experts” to argue that things like the CME and CBOE BTC futures are driving Bitcoin price 00.

According to Mosaic, a cryptocurrency data and research firm, developments in Asia exert a significantly greater effect on the virtual currency market than the ones from the Western part of the globe.

The research firm says there have been 11 major news developments from Asia concerning cryptocurrencies. These headlines impacted the market by an average of 18.61 percent.

The most significant of these developments came at the beginning of the year when CoinMarketCap removed data from South Korean exchanges. According to Mosaic, this singular event crashed the market by more than 57 percent.

Back in mid-2018 when BTC price rallied from $6,200 to $8,000, many commentators pointed to news coming out of Asia. At the time, wealthy Chinese citizens turned to Bitcoin as a haven as the government accelerated the devaluation of its currency.

Asia Dominates Mining and Cryptocurrency Exchange

To start with, Asia dominates both the mining and exchange landscape. Even with the crackdown by China, other places like Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan, and South Korea are hotspots for numerous cryptocurrency exchange platforms and related businesses.

Why is this information relevant? Well, apart from the apparent trading volume conclusion, there is also the language component. These Asian exchanges make sure their services are offered in their local languages, bringing trading closer to the local population. With relatively cheaper electricity, the region (especially China), is still a dominant player in the bitcoin mining industry.

Earlier this year, Arthur Hayes, CEO of Hong Kong-based BitMex platform, said that crypto trading in Asia is more developed than in the West.

“Asia dominates cryptos because they’re very used to digital trading assets. South Korea has been trading digital goods related to gaming for two decades. When you move to a purely money based digital currency, they understand that culturally, so they get on board quickly,” he said. Therefore, it stands to reason that news out of that region would have a much greater sway on the market than in the US and Europe.

The researchers conclude that due to the “pivotal role” Asia plays in cryptocurrency, “investors seeking a better idea of what drives crypto prices would do well to look East.”

Will an influx of US-based institutional investors shift the tide of dominance towards the Western hemisphere? Please share your thoughts with us in the comments below.