Monday, January 23, 2017

Newt Gingrich is right

“Ultimately this is about governing,” said former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who has advised Mr. Trump. “There are two things he’s got to do between now and 2020: He has to keep America safe and create a lot of jobs. That’s what he promised in his speech. If he does those two things, everything else is noise.”

“The average American isn’t paying attention to this stuff,” he added. “They are going to look around in late 2019 and early 2020 and ask themselves if they are doing better. If the answer’s yes, they are going to say, ‘Cool, give me some more.’”

It is fair to say Trump specifically promised the Americans who voted for him 5 main things:

1. he will crack down on asylum seekers (Muslims)

2. he will deport illegals, and build a bigger wall between the US and Mexico

3. he will bring back manufacturing jobs

4. he will repeal Obamacare

5. he will not make cuts to Social Security and Medicare

I suspect he is going to make good on #1, 2, and 4.

It is a bad time to be a Muslim or illegal immigrant. In particular, it is a very bad time to be a "DREAMer" who signed up for DACA. Unless the Obama Administration destroyed the data on the way out the door, the easiest way for Trump to make good on deporting illegals, is to knock on every door of the 800,000 DREAMers who signed up for DACA, and deport them and every other member of their families. It is going to be absolutely heartrending for those who had no say in their being here illegally, and have only known the US as their home for the last 10, 20, or even 30 years.

Similarly, repealing Obamacare may or may not be a disaster depending on whether or not the repeal is delayed, and what if anything the "replacement" is.

I suspect he is going to fail at bringing back manufacturing jobs. During Obama's years, until 2015, these were growing at about 100,000 or so a year:

If Trump fails to add about 10,000 manufacturing jobs a month, his working class voters are not going to be happy. That's without even considering the fact that he and Congress are likely to have to deal with a recession during his term.

On #5, we know what Paul Ryan wants to do. Is Trump going to honor his promise, or betray his voters?

It is safe to say that if he fails at #3 and #5, he and his GOP Congress will be swept away, and I do not think most Americans want DREAMers deported even if they dislike illegal immigration.

As a progressive -- as a New Deal democrat -- I believe the next 2 to 4 years are going to be awful for American society, and for the world in general. But at the end of the day, Newt Gingrich is right. And I believe those currently in power are going to fail dismally at governance as they will be judged by the American people.