Hurricane Maria rushes towards Newfoundland

Hurricane Maria is bearing down on Newfoundland, Canada, as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds. The wind shear over Maria turned out to be much lower than was predicted yesterday, allowing the storm to organize into the season's third hurricane. Latest satellite imagery shows that Maria is steadily degrading, with a hole in the storm's southwest eyewall, and the cloud pattern distorted by 30 - 50 knots of wind shear. The eyewall has collapsed, as seen on recent microwave satellite imagery. Maria's very fast forward speed of 45 mph means that only locations on the right (strong) side will experience hurricane force winds. With the center of Maria expected to pass over the extreme southeast tip of Newfoundland, only a small region of the island near Cape Race will see the powerful right-front quadrant of the storm. Winds at Sagona Island on the south shore of Newfoundland were sustained at 50 mph at 7:30 am local time, but have dropped to 37 mph at 9:10 am. Winds in the capital of St. John's have been rising steadily this morning, and were sustained at 37 mph, gusting to 46 mph, at 10:30 am local time. Winds will probably reach sustained speeds of 55 - 65 mph between 1 pm and 5 pm today in St. Johns, causing considerable tree damage and power failures. Radar out of Newfoundland shows the hurricane has been dumping heavy rains over the southeastern portion of the island this morning; rainfall has been under a half inch thus far at most locations, though. Along with wind damage, heavy rains leading to flash flooding are the main threat from Maria; last year, heavy rains of up to 8 inches from Hurricane Igor caused major damage in Newfoundland. Fortunately, Maria's rains are not expected to be as heavy as Igor's. According to the Canadian Hurricane Center, rivers in eastern Newfoundland are currently at average to below average levels, which will limit the amount of flooding. Maria's storm surge will arrive when the normal astronomical tide will be going out, limiting the damage the expected 3-foot storm surge will do.

Yesterday, Maria brought a brief 8-minute period of sustained winds of tropical storm force, 39 mph, to the Bermuda airport. Bermuda picked up 0.20" of rain from Maria.

Newfoundland's second consecutive year with a hurricaneIf Maria strikes Newfoundland as a hurricane, this will be the province's second consecutive year with a hurricane strike, something that has never occurred since hurricane record keeping began in 1851. Last year, Hurricane Igor killed one person on Newfoundland, and damage exceeded $100 million, making Igor the most damaging tropical cyclone in Newfoundland history. A summary of the impact of Igor prepared by Environment Canada put it this way:

"Hurricane Igor and its severe impacts certainly represent a rare event in Newfoundland history which has been described as the worst in memory. In statistical terms, this was effectively a 50 - 100 year event depending on how one chooses to define it. There are no hurricanes/post tropical events of this magnitude striking Newfoundland in the modern era. Hurricane Juan in Nova Scotia was the last Atlantic Canadian hurricane to cause extreme damage. Prior to the naming of hurricanes, the 1935 Newfoundland Hurricane 75 years ago was of similar intensity."

Elsewhere in the tropicsAll of the models have been sporadically predicting development of a tropical wave 5 - 7 days from now between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. The location and timing of the hypothetical storm have been inconsistent, and there is at present no signs of anything brewing. The NOGAPS model continues to predict a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression could form in the Caribbean 6 - 7 days from now, near Jamaica. None of the other models is supporting this idea, so the NOGAPS model is probably wrong on this scenario. I'll have an update Saturday afternoon.

Quoting basti11:AQUA both of you need to come down here so i can give both of you a night on the town the big easy style...it would be great to see the both of you and then you guys can return the favor...

oh basti...you KNOW you will always have a sweet spot in my heart. Forever. :)

islander- I am NOT begging for it to stop. Geez. It was overwhelming, yes. But BRING IT ON. I'd grow gills and webbed feet and LIVE in the water and rain if I could.

We took 8.10 inches of rain between 7pm and 1am last night. I am not kidding. It was the worst drive ever, at 11pm. All the curbs were underwater for at least ten miles. Like a firehose spraying on my windshield, lightning blinding me, power out everywhere. Thank Goodness for the Subaru.

They say there's more coming but I am too numb from last night to believe it.

Quoting islander101010:palm beach florida south has a bad history for major landfall storms for the rest of this season the sw part of fl. would seem to be more likely spot for a landfaller

I have to agree with you on this one, 97L which some models have this right over you next week and damn some have it moving right up the middle of florida, very interesting times ahead next week or so for us

hi basti- our Doc is doing well, running a pharmacy dept at a big new hospital- she stays real busy

We took 8.10 inches of rain between 7pm and 1am last night. I am not kidding. It was the worst drive ever, at 11pm. All the curbs were underwater for at least ten miles. Like a firehose spraying on my windshield, lightning blinding me, power out everywhere. Thank Goodness for the Subaru.

They say there's more coming but I am too numb from last night to believe it.

Mik.. looked the '28 cane over.. NICE work bro, I saved it and will revise my stuff to reflect the reanalysis, thanks!

I have created an archive of all storms.. TD on up that "affected" Florida 1851 to present. Remembering that those were the days of sail and close counted. One file is 532 pages. I use it a lot when I'm nosing around pioneer stuff.

574 Speeky "Why did we come up with the name "Invest" for an area of disturbed weather that has a >20% chance of forming within 48 hours?"

Like 'info' for 'information' : 'Invest' for 'area under investigation'Basicly if a storm system has characteristics within a(n at least minimally favorable) surrounding environment that resemble those of past storm systems which later developed into TropicalCyclones, an order is given to "Invest extra time and resources to investigate this storm system more closely." Which is expectably shorthanded down to 'Invest' on the paperwork and "We've got an Invest" in discussion. With numbering to distinguish which Invest we're discussing at the moment.Doesn't imply an expectation that a TC will develop. Study of interesting marginal systems -- even those that are most likely to be on the wrong side of the margin -- helps weather services to better understand "what will and what won't" become a more dangerous storm.

hmmmm, looks like I need to spend some time at that hurdat site.. thanks Mik. I have to go to work in a bit, work late, then open in the morning so I won't be able to dig around much but I would be happy to share with you the stuff I have about storms. My family is the oldest homestead family in Palm Beach. We gave the name and spelling to Hypoluxo Island.. owned ALL of it once upon a time...sighs... I have two barefoot mailmen in the family and the statue and Stephan Dohanos' murals were modeled after my Uncle Charlie. He wrote a 690 page memoir that Dr. Don Curl condensed into the Book Pioneer Life in Southeast Florida. I absolutely thrive on this stuff and have served several years on the Board of the Lake Worth Pioneers Association, and am still currently their historian.

Landfall... where is your home? My cousins run a little curio shop called the "Barefoot Mailman" out of the family house on Pine Street in Lantana that was built in 1910 or so.

Mik'The Jensen Causeway was wooden in '49, that is why it took so much damage. Not long ago we featured a photo collection about the damage the '49 storm caused at Stuart Feed Store Museum. One of our Board members comes from a boat building family and had some great shots of wrecked boats, buildings and dock in the Manatee Pocket.

You have missed a LOT of storms that affected Palm Beach county. A portion of my family had just left service at Jupiter Light, trying to make their way to Lake Worth via the "sawgrass route" and were caught in a sawgrass swamp by the 1873 cane that was VERY similar to Wilma.. even to the point of pulling down a cool front behind it. Uncle Charlie said after taking shelter under the 12ft tender "Fly" hauled up on a gator crawl all night they awoke to a calm NW breeze with clear robin's egg blue skies. He could hardly believe that just a few hours before the storm was raging at over a hundred miles per hour. Charlie says the "vortex" or eye passed over them so either the storm had a bigger eye than supposed, or it's track was a little further south than recorded. An aside, the 1873 storm pulled a cold front down as I said, but it brought a frost to Nawlins' which was having a mosquito borne epidemic. The frost ended it for that year.

I'm only refering to landfalling hurricanes (westerly-moving) whose center made a direct hit on PB County. I can only find four.

Maps for the '28 storm with the revised track (Re-Analysis 2010) are available on my photo page.

Hurricane Isbell of 1964 had almost the exact same track as Wilma. Same month, a little stronger, I was six at the time. Went right over us.

I got an idea.Just design weather stations so they are not allowed to be 'liberal' and report temperatures higher than 85 F or have ongoing drought or other severe weather or any other clear signs of climate change... Problem solved, well actually we'll still be suffering it effects perhaps but at least we won't have to be open to debate or acknowledgement.

After all the world isn't allowed more mystery than my ability to comprehend, if it doesn't fit in my brain then it's up to me to reject it as truth. I decide what the world can or can not be, not the other way around. God appointed me as the general manager of the universe, the universe has no right to manage me.

Mik'The Jensen Causeway was wooden in '49, that is why it took so much damage. Not long ago we featured a photo collection about the damage the '49 storm caused at Stuart Feed Store Museum. One of our Board members comes from a boat building family and had some great shots of wrecked boats, buildings and dock in the Manatee Pocket.

You have missed a LOT of storms that affected Palm Beach county. A portion of my family had just left service at Jupiter Light, trying to make their way to Lake Worth via the "sawgrass route" and were caught in a sawgrass swamp by the 1873 cane that was VERY similar to Wilma.. even to the point of pulling down a cool front behind it. Uncle Charlie said after taking shelter under the 12ft tender "Fly" hauled up on a gator crawl all night they awoke to a calm NW breeze with clear robin's egg blue skies. He could hardly believe that just a few hours before the storm was raging at over a hundred miles per hour. Charlie says the "vortex" or eye passed over them so either the storm had a bigger eye than supposed, or it's track was a little further south than recorded. An aside, the 1873 storm pulled a cold front down as I said, but it brought a frost to Nawlins' which was having a mosquito borne epidemic. The frost ended it for that year.

It's a little funny, there are a lot of people here in Palm Beach Co. that are relative newbies who have convinced themselves that somehow this area of S. FL is immune to hurricane strikes.

You'll hear that the shape of the coastline, climatology, and plain 'ol "they don't hit here."

None of that is true of course.

The '49 storm you talked about and the '28 storm demonstrate it.

Some of the biggest storms to strike the east coast have hit right along here, and there's no guarantee it won't happen again.

Scientists, as a rule, aren't known for their captivating communication skills...and that has added to the polarization of the discussion....I'll pick on my own son, as he's a handy example....but it applies broadly...

he's a physics major and a pilot...and he's most comfortable in a black and white world of 1's and 0's and tidy solutions...he sees no reason why the trains shouldn't run on time...unfortunately, for him, most of us live in the shady spots...so he's a bit socially inept...his girlfriend virtually had to stalk him before he realized she was interested...he can also come across as arrogant, which can be an impediment to meaningful communication...

it's not a character flaw...it's just the nature of things...

but it would serve science well if its practitioners would develop some communication skills...

Just something interesting that was on the History Channel last night. Please forgive me if I do not remember everything with 100% accuracy--but I am trying. The Sahara is responsible for 150 million TONS of dust every year--some of which THANKFULLY reaches Florida--or we would have MORE hurricanes. Soil samples from the ocean floors indicate that the Sahara was once an Ocean 3 million years ago. Then the tectonic plates shifted and forced what is now Africa up into Europe and the land buckled and lifted. However, there were still some salt water lakes formed, that eventually dried up.

Also, with the launch of the Space Shuttles, NASA used a "new" radar on a 30 mile wide swath of the Sahara in the early 1980's--and found that there we actually fresh water rivers in the Sahara at one time. Evidently, every 20,000 years or so, there is a WOBBLE in the earth's orbit, and the Sarah pulls away from the equator and becomes a rainforest.

My point--GW or not, STUFF HAPPENS beyond our control that affects climate and weather. Hey, we are travelling around on a spinning, cooling rock with a hot, molten center, in an ever expanding universe, being pelted with asteroids and meteorites. Who actually knows what tomorrow will bring? Sure not worth fighting over!!!!

I seem to recall reading that at one time not to distant say 5,000, 7,000 years ago that the Sahara was a lush landscape. It is thought that as the climate changed and the Sahara dried up it forced people to move to the Nile and learn how to cultivate crops. The artical I recall reading had a picture of a very old tree in the middle of the desert, the last remaining survivor of days long ago that somehow had tapped into a water source far beneath the sands.

I try to make my posts entertaining and I hope informative. Not much is happening in the tropics right now, weather and climate do kinda go hand in hand.

Mik'The Jensen Causeway was wooden in '49, that is why it took so much damage. Not long ago we featured a photo collection about the damage the '49 storm caused at Stuart Feed Store Museum. One of our Board members comes from a boat building family and had some great shots of wrecked boats, buildings and dock in the Manatee Pocket.

You have missed a LOT of storms that affected Palm Beach county. A portion of my family had just left service at Jupiter Light, trying to make their way to Lake Worth via the "sawgrass route" and were caught in a sawgrass swamp by the 1873 cane that was VERY similar to Wilma.. even to the point of pulling down a cool front behind it. Uncle Charlie said after taking shelter under the 12ft tender "Fly" hauled up on a gator crawl all night they awoke to a calm NW breeze with clear robin's egg blue skies. He could hardly believe that just a few hours before the storm was raging at over a hundred miles per hour. Charlie says the "vortex" or eye passed over them so either the storm had a bigger eye than supposed, or it's track was a little further south than recorded. An aside, the 1873 storm pulled a cold front down as I said, but it brought a frost to Nawlins' which was having a mosquito borne epidemic. The frost ended it for that year.

A close up of center of storm track.. this surprised me, I always thought Palm Beach got the center

Here is the "other" '28 storm plotted next to the Okeechobee lake storm.. we never hear about the first one, It HAD to have caused great problems, perhaps loading the area with water that a month later became a killer.

Here is the '47 storm Mikatnight spoke of. I plotted it out looking for speed of advance, and distance from various points including Okeechobee Lake

Andrew... couldn't find the 2x4 image, I have it some dang place. I am on a new laptop and have not moved all my stuff into it yet.. arrggg

WOW--and my 1895 house stood through ALL of them!!!!! How is it I can't find HO insurance (except Citizens????)

A close up of center of storm track.. this surprised me, I always thought Palm Beach got the center

Here is the "other" '28 storm plotted next to the Okeechobee lake storm.. we never hear about the first one, It HAD to have caused great problems, perhaps loading the area with water that a month later became a killer.

Here is the '47 storm Mikatnight spoke of. I plotted it out looking for speed of advance, and distance from various points including Okeechobee Lake

Andrew... couldn't find the 2x4 image, I have it some dang place. I am on a new laptop and have not moved all my stuff into it yet.. arrggg

As far as I know, I'm the only one with the revised track in a zoomed-in map form. You can go to the HURDAT Tracks and plot the positions for yourself.

Quoting Neapolitan:I've been hearing repeatedly of people leaving because of discussions about climate change, but I haven't seen any proof of that. There's one very vocal "skeptic" who has said he's withdrawing, along with a well-liked member going through a self-described period of bad health who has been posting less and less over the past several months anyway. But aside from those two--and a handful of who-wants-them-anyway trolls--I'm unsure who else has departed in a fit of pique.

As aqua said last night, it's doubtful anyone leaving is suddenly doing so because of blog entries with CC/GW content; after all, Dr. Masters has been posting about that subject for several years now, and the blog is doing just fine, thank you very much. (Not to mention the fact that for every person who may leave because of climate change discussions, another one will be drawn here simply because of such discussions.)

Annyway, it can't be said enough: it's Dr. Masters' blog. He has created WU, one of the most popular websites on the internet, and this blog is one of the most widely-read. If he wishes to occasionally use this self-created and high visible soapbox to talk about a subject--any subject--he's passionate about, I'm not sure what right any of us have to ask him to change. Demanding he does so is, to me, no different than walking into a McDonalds and declaring they must start serving only tofu burgers because you happen to be a vegetarian. That is: you're free to go elsewhere. Have some manners, for crying out loud.

And a final note: climate change is likely the most important matter facing humanity at this moment. Not talking about it isn't going to make it go away.

Thanks for listening...

Well Said Nea.

I agree that climate change is a critical issue. I've also believed that the scientific community probably made an early error in calling it global warming (which it is, but probably wasn't the best name for it), which opened the door to people using things like record snowfall to debunk the science by attacking the name of the phenomenon.

Dr. Masters has championed awareness of climate change for some time now, and most people who have come to this blog for a while know that Dr. Masters has been an advocate for increased awareness of it.

I can't imagine that suddenly over the last 48 hours people suddenly realized that CC/GW is an ongoing topic of Dr. M's blog.

Quoting GainesvilleGator:I have been on here since 2005 and agree with Wial post #1002 that Dr Masters has been posting Global Warming blogs since then. Yes, GW is a very polarizing topic so please keep yor posts civil. Sometimes WU members need to take a few days or weeks off to cool down. If you feel you have had too much, take some time off and come back at a later time.

Just something interesting that was on the History Channel last night. Please forgive me if I do not remember everything with 100% accuracy--but I am trying. The Sahara is responsible for 150 million TONS of dust every year--some of which THANKFULLY reaches Florida--or we would have MORE hurricanes. Soil samples from the ocean floors indicate that the Sahara was once an Ocean 3 million years ago. Then the tectonic plates shifted and forced what is now Africa up into Europe and the land buckled and lifted. However, there were still some salt water lakes formed, that eventually dried up.

Also, with the launch of the Space Shuttles, NASA used a "new" radar on a 30 mile wide swath of the Sahara in the early 1980's--and found that there we actually fresh water rivers in the Sahara at one time. Evidently, every 20,000 years or so, there is a WOBBLE in the earth's orbit, and the Sarah pulls away from the equator and becomes a rainforest. (Oh dear, no more dust!)

My point--GW or not, STUFF HAPPENS beyond our control that affects climate and weather. Hey, we are travelling around on a spinning, cooling rock with a hot, molten center, in an ever expanding universe, being pelted with asteroids and meteorites. Who actually knows what tomorrow will bring? Sure not worth fighting over!!!! Life is too short.

All I can say to this is- Grothar was a nice man who had some wonderful contributions to this blog and WU in general. To come back this morning to learn he has left is a sad thing. Also, I searched his blog and tried to leave him a WUmail. The result- His blog entries have been removed and he has refused to accept WUmail.

Whoever or whatever happened yesterday must have been pretty horrific to drive him completely away.

It's a very sad commentary for the state of this blog.

Okay, I'm getting off my soapbox now and I'm sure I'll have derogatory comments about what I've said but that's okay.

Quoting Neapolitan:I've been hearing repeatedly of people leaving because of discussions about climate change, but I haven't seen any proof of that. There's one very vocal "skeptic" who has said he's withdrawing, along with a well-liked member going through a self-described period of bad health who has been posting less and less over the past several months anyway. But aside from those two--and a handful of who-wants-them-anyway trolls--I'm unsure who else has departed in a fit of pique.

As aqua said last night, it's doubtful anyone leaving is suddenly doing so because of blog entries with CC/GW content; after all, Dr. Masters has been posting about that subject for several years now, and the blog is doing just fine, thank you very much. (Not to mention the fact that for every person who may leave because of climate change discussions, another one will be drawn here simply because of such discussions.)

Annyway, it can't be said enough: it's Dr. Masters' blog. He has created WU, one of the most popular websites on the internet, and this blog is one of the most widely-read. If he wishes to occasionally use this self-created and high visible soapbox to talk about a subject--any subject--he's passionate about, I'm not sure what right any of us have to ask him to change. Demanding he does so is, to me, no different than walking into a McDonalds and declaring they must start serving only tofu burgers because you happen to be a vegetarian. That is: you're free to go elsewhere. Have some manners, for crying out loud.

And a final note: climate change is likely the most important matter facing humanity at this moment. Not talking about it isn't going to make it go away.

Thanks for listening...

Nea,

I agree that there is a time and place for the conversation, but in peak week of tropical weather season is not it. Even with a lull like the one were having is not the time. Today's topic has nothing to do with AGW.

I have noticed that your focus has been on the weather more lately and I have enjoyed reading your posts. When the season is over and when Jeff posts about it, I will be here then to learn more.

"The biggest single killer in hurricanes is storm surge."Jamie Rhome, storm surge specialist at the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

"Most U.S. tropical cyclone deaths occur from drowning," says hurricane center deputy director Ed Rappaport. Storm surge accounted for about half of the losses since 1970. Nearly all of those occurred in Katrina (2005). Floods from excessive rainfall rank second in causing loss of life in hurricanes.

So, we need a new pie chart (warning: saying "pie chart" several times may make you hungry).

A close up of center of storm track.. this surprised me, I always thought Palm Beach got the center

Here is the "other" '28 storm plotted next to the Okeechobee lake storm.. we never hear about the first one, It HAD to have caused great problems, perhaps loading the area with water that a month later became a killer.

Here is the '47 storm Mikatnight spoke of. I plotted it out looking for speed of advance, and distance from various points including Okeechobee Lake

Andrew... couldn't find the 2x4 image, I have it some dang place. I am on a new laptop and have not moved all my stuff into it yet.. arrggg

OMG!! I am shocked... He must of really been hurt, to leave. Now whoever messed with him was a Troll! How do you mess with one of, if not THE nicest people on the blog with such a great sense of humor and personality! I realy hope he comes back....

All I can say to this is- Grothar was a nice man who had some wonderful contributions to this blog and WU in general. To come back this morning to learn he has left is a sad thing. Also, I searched his blog and tried to leave him a WUmail. The result- His blog entries have been removed and he has refused to accept WUmail.

Whoever or whatever happened yesterday must have been pretty horrific to drive him completely away.

It's a very sad commentary for the state of this blog.

Okay, I'm getting off my soapbox now and I'm sure I'll have derogatory comments about what I've said but that's okay.

[EDIT: removed quote, as my intention was not to single out any person or persons.]

I've been hearing repeatedly of people leaving because of discussions about climate change, but I haven't seen any proof of that. There's one very vocal "skeptic" who has said he's withdrawing, along with a well-liked member going through a self-described period of bad health who has been posting less and less over the past several months anyway. But aside from those two--and a handful of who-wants-them-anyway trolls--I'm unsure who else has departed in a fit of pique.

As aqua said last night, it's doubtful anyone leaving is suddenly doing so because of blog entries with CC/GW content; after all, Dr. Masters has been posting about that subject for several years now, and the blog is doing just fine, thank you very much. (Not to mention the fact that for every person who may leave because of climate change discussions, another one will be drawn here simply because of such discussions.)

Annyway, it can't be said enough: it's Dr. Masters' blog. He has created WU, one of the most popular websites on the internet, and this blog is one of the most widely-read. If he wishes to occasionally use this self-created and high visible soapbox to talk about a subject--any subject--he's passionate about, I'm not sure what right any of us have to ask him to change. Demanding he does so is, to me, no different than walking into a McDonalds and declaring they must start serving only tofu burgers because you happen to be a vegetarian. That is: you're free to go elsewhere. Have some manners, for crying out loud.

And a final note: climate change is likely the most important matter facing humanity at this moment. Not talking about it isn't going to make it go away.

for what this is worth cause i ant no professor nor am i a very good scientist but i would like to think that with reasoning Dr Masters puts out this info on global warming to show us how this changes or could change our weather patterns on earth as well as we can see that it does indeed have an effect on our lives within this atmosphere and not only that but it could drastically effect the price of my Tatar totswith that said well let it Rain Over Me