Poll: Should The Reds Give Zack Cozart A Qualifying Offer?

An ill-timed injury that landed Zack Cozart on the disabled list from July 26 through Aug. 6 may have prevented the Reds from trading their shortstop prior to the non-waiver trade deadline. The Reds placed Cozart on revocable trade waivers last month and reportedly pulled him back after the claiming team placed the claim more to block other contenders from acquiring Cozart than to work out a trade themselves.

That effectively eliminated the possibility of the Reds trading Cozart at all, leaving general manager Dick Williams and his staff with somewhat of a dilemma. Cozart has played at star level on a per-game basis over the past three seasons — never more so than in 2017 — but has also dealt with injuries in each of those three seasons. The rebuilding Reds, then, are faced with the choice of either letting one of their best players walk as a free agent with no compensation or making a one-year qualifying offer that is reported to be in the $18.1MM range, which would net them draft pick compensation. There’s an argument to be made in favor of either decision.

Those that feel a qualifying offer is too great a risk have an understandable vantage point. Cozart is 32 years old and, assuming he remains healthy through season’s end, will have averaged about 100 games per year over the past three seasons. In that time, he’s been sidelined by a torn ACL, some knee troubles in 2016 and quadriceps issues in 2017. There will also likely be clubs that wonder if this year’s offensive breakout is sustainable; while he’d shown much-improved power in both 2015 and 2016, Cozart’s offensive output has never approached his 2017 levels in the past.

There’s also a lack of contending clubs or expected contenders with clear-cut shortstop needs this offseason, creating the potential for the same limited market the Reds found when seeking trade partners in both 2016 and 2017. And, Cozart has only earned about $12MM in his career, so the prospect of increasing his career earnings by 150 percent in a single season will make it tempting to accept — especially since the new CBA prohibits the team from making a second QO the following offseason.

On the other hand, a one-year deal for Cozart at $18.1MM isn’t necessarily a bad outcome. He’s been worth considerably more than that this season even with his injuries, thanks to his perennially elite defense and his career-best .304/.397/.549 batting line. Cozart’s offensive improvement doesn’t appear to be due entirely to BABIP luck, either. He’s more than doubled his career walk rate (6.4 percent career, 13 percent in 2017), his strikeout rate remains strong (15 percent — well below the league average) and his 31.4 percent hard-hit rate is largely a continuation of last year’s solid pace.

Like many others throughout the league, Cozart has increased his fly-ball rate a bit, and he’s also benefited from a not-outlandish uptick in his 2015-16 homer-to-flyball ratio. The Reds can probably expect some degree of regression in his career-high .324 BABIP, but even a return to his career level of .281 would render the new, ultra-patient and more powerful version of Cozart a decidedly above-average bat. Cozart will enter this offseason as a markedly better offensive producer than J.J. Hardy was when he signed a three-year, $40MM deal to remain with the Orioles at the same age.

There may not be a lengthy list of teams eyeing shortstop upgrades, but there are plenty of clubs that could work Cozart into the mix. The Cardinals could deploy Paul DeJong at third base and play Cozart at shortstop. The D-backs have some uncertainty and were often a speculative Cozart suitor this summer, though they do have Chris Owings and Nick Ahmed both controllable beyond the current campaign. The Padres aren’t contending but have long been seeking stability at shortstop, while the Royals will be on the lookout for an Alcides Escobar replacement. Trevor Story has taken a step back in Colorado. Both Troy Tulowitzki and Devon Travis have injury concerns in Toronto. And, as ever, offseason trades and injuries, will alter every free agent’s market.

Were Cozart to accept, the Reds wouldn’t be able to trade him without his consent until mid-June of 2018. However, he could also once again command interest at the 2018 non-waiver deadline, particularly if he maintains his breakout and the Reds show some willingness to pay any of the contract. (Cincinnati did pay the bulk of Brandon Phillips’ contract this past offseason, and Cozart’s deal almost certainly wouldn’t require the Reds to pay such a significant portion, even at $18.1MM.)

All of that said, I’ll open this up for public input (link to poll for MLBTR app users)…

Comments

I would, even though I’d be inclined to believe he’d be forced to accept, especially considering that the lack of demand that made him difficult to trade also seemingly will make it difficult for him to find a substantial contract. He’s already 32, and I think there will remain skepticism that he’s actually a well above – average hitter.

That said, he’s an elite defender, looks like a decent hitter, and is coming off of a five-win season. There are worse things than having Cozart on a one – year deal for $18 million, and he presumably would stand to have some value next deadline if he continues to prove himself a good hitter. Even if not, their younger options look underwhelming, and they should have some budget space.

No. Rebuilding and spending +$18mill (it would be a surprise if another team gave up a pick AND gave him something like Hardy got) as he’d probably accept that huge raise. We’d be better letting Peraza play ever day there or Suarez if they want Senzel at 3b while we spend money on pitching.

I agree. The Reds are firmly in rebuild mode, and since they won’t be able to shed the Votto or Homer Bailey contracts any time soon, they need to let Cozart walk and invest that $18M elsewhere. With the position player market flatter than ever, they could still bring him back on a short term contract if he’s still available in February.

agree. If they can get a good deal take it. If not move on. young pitching is at a premium so if we can bring him back on a deal we can always trade some of our young pitching to get even younger. I have a feeling he’ll be back on a three-year deal at about 36 million. he means a couple million more to us and he does to most teams

What the Reds would be getting in return would be 18 million to spend on likely younger, guaranteed longer-term options.

If the Reds take that money and even give it to a good Relief Pitcher on say a 3/15 to 2/15 range deal, plus maybe spend a bit to snag a released/DFA’d backup type with arbitration years remaining, they are already well ahead of the situation they are in now.

They pay him 18 million hoping they can trade him at the break, after failing to be able to do so this season, and they may very well walk away with nothing at all or dramatically less value than spending that money wisely this offseason

he is sunken cost. they need to bid for his services on the open market. if they can get him somewhere around the price of 3 for 40 he’s worth keeping. veteran presence in the clubhouse is always good to have. however if not we have plenty of options. make Suarez 2ed or short. paraza( still only 23) and scooter could split time at 2ed. the Reds have two really good prospects at 3rd. we also have dilson who is out of options. if we gave Cozart 18 million we would have nothing left to spend on pitching. He would take it. even in an average year a year from now he could easily get three for 22. him taking it is a sure thing . if we can sing him we could always work out a trade for pitching.

I wouldn’t go three years on him. Not sure anyone would. I’d QO him and risk that he accepts, but a multi – year commitment doesn’t seem worth it, considering where the Reds are at. Definitely wouldn’t make sense to not QO him and then offer him a three – year deal

They have to. That’s the only excuse for not trading him. There was interest in him last offseason and the Reds elected to hold on him then the market for shortstops that don’t come with long-term control dried up. They botched the trades of Cueto, Leake and Chapman. Unless they QO Cozart you can add him to that list.
Cozart accepting the QO wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world for the Reds.

They should have traded Cueto and Leake during the 14-15 offseason. They would have gotten a better return if the acquiring team got a full season of Cueto/Leake plus the right to QO them than they got for two months of Cueto/Leake and no QO. What exactly was the point in waiting to trade them? The Reds were never going to contend in 2015 and I’m sure the Giants would have been willing to give up Duvall for Leake during the 14-15 offseason and probably with a better secondary piece than Keury Mella.

Cody reed might be around for another two years because of his pedigree but he’s not going to make a meaningful contribution unless he reigns in his control. I don’t see him being any more than a reliever at this point.

You might’ve gotten one good player I don’t think finnegan is a guarantee to be solid. His FIP’s don’t support his stats thus far. Has high upside and I’d say it’s more likely than not he’s a solid player but can’t say that yet.

Could have gotten Duvall plus more for Leake if they traded him in the 14-15 offseason and everyone already admits they botched the Chapman trade. Cueto same situation as Leake, should have traded him in the 14-15 offseason.

No QO. The Reds are in LAST PLACE with him……. unless that is the goal next year why spend 18 mill on one player to hope he can repeat his statistical 2017 while helping the Reds to. The worst record in MLB.

the real problem on this team is Brian price. other dicks inability to let Cozart go for nothing was pretty stupid to. he was more worried about winning games and he was about building this team for the future. for instance he’s got Cody Reed in the bullpen. he said he needed another left-hander for what winning. we still don’t know what we have in Peraza because we were too worried about scooter gennett one good year and playing cozart.

The Reds aren’t mired as deeply in the rebuilding process as most people think.

If they can finally get a couple of their starters back healthy in ’18, they can push for a wildcard berth.

Anthony DeSclafani hasn’t given them anything for two years now. Same for Brandon Finnegan. Homer Bailey is actually starting to show signs of life. If any two of those three – but especially Disco – can stay healthy next year… lookout.

The Reds can score with anyone, and have a premier closer.

Being that close, you can’t let Cozart walk for nothing. Besides, it’s. It as if the Reds are going to run out and use that $18 million to bring in a top shelf free agent. And with all the young talent in the pipeline, there’s not much need to go sign a couple spare parts.

finny had a great year last year. disco was hurt but was a stud half the year. 18mil would get a pitcher. volquez went 2 for 20 last year. I do agree we could be close especially if Romano Castello and others keep it up. a lot of our pitching is still very very young.

He’s already 32 with an extensive injury history. However, with his high quality defense and high upside bat shown this year, he should EASILY top $18M on the open market–probably not per season, but perhaps something like 3y/$36M. Given his age and injury history, that would be his best ticket to financial earnings. If he takes the $18M, that’s a BIG gamble. The injuries or decreased production could decrease his earnings potential next year. If I’m Cozart, and I’m given a qualifying offer, I reject it. So, as the Reds, I offer it. The only caveat here would be if Cozart just loves the Reds so much that he doesn’t want to leave–so therefore he’d jump at the $18M to stay in Cincy. The team should certainly have a feel for that one.

Additionally, the downside of him accepting the offer aren’t so bad. There is a tiny chance of getting zero value out of it, but chances are you get at least a big chunk of a season of an above average player who other teams CAN use. Ultimately, I don’t think you should just let him walk away.

Reds have to avoid bidding against themselves if they forego the QO and attempt to bring him back on a multi-year. His value to the Reds has always been greater than his value to other teams. The market for shortstops is very, very flat. Reds should shop around because I don’t see Cozart’s phone ringing off the hook this winter.

There are teams that need a shortstop. They just weren’t contending this year so no need to give up prospects for a guy they can just sign this offseason. Take my Padres for example. Wouldn’t surprise or upset me to see them sign Zack Cozart.