Friday, October 10, 2008

2009 ZiPS Projections - Toronto Blue Jays

The Jays led the AL in ERA this season and almost all of that staff is guaranteed to be back next year, but the offense has a lot of work to do. None of the hitters are actually terrible per se, but there just haven’t been a lot of pleasant surprises for the team. Like the Angels, the Jays are a team that really needs to take advantage of one of the best free agent crops in recent seasons and if they can’t do that, they can’t be in the hunt for the playoffs and they need to clean house and rebuild. This isn’t the NL West and striving to win 86 games and complaining about the Yankees and Red Sox won’t get the Jays into October. When the Orioles are being more decisive about organizational direction than your team is, you need to take a long, hard look at your short and long-term goals and I don’t think Ricciardi’s shown that he does anything but fly by the seat of his pants.

Nothing illustrates the Jays problem than Matt Watson, who’s always had the potential to be a good 4th outfielder, being 2nd on the below list.

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2009.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.44 ERA and the NL having a 4.38 ERA.

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The Jays led the AL in ERA this season and almost all of that staff is guaranteed to be back next year

It seems like the only starters who are likely to pitch for Jays next year are Halladay and Litsch. Purcey and Parrish will be back, but I don't think they're be helping win another ERA title. The loss of Marcum, McGowan, and Burnett (it seems likely he'll opt out) really hurts.

Just curious Dan, why do projections for Marcum and McGowan when they're going to miss all of next season anyway?

I always do projections for those that will probably miss a season.

Is that the same Chris George who had quasi-prospect status about five years ago?

Yes.

It seems like the only starters who are likely to pitch for Jays next year are Halladay and Litsch. Purcey and Parrish will be back, but I don't think they're be helping win another ERA title. The loss of Marcum, McGowan, and Burnett (it seems likely he'll opt out) really hurts.

That's their two likely best starters, they've had serious talks with Burnett, and the entire bullpen.

Wow, I had no idea until now that Hayhurst was claimed by the Blue Jays.

I'm probably going to keep projecting Hayhurst as long as he's in baseball. Meritorious Internetary Contributions. I did that with CBW (and his projections sadly were weaker).

Just curious Dan, why do projections for Marcum and McGowan when they're going to miss all of next season anyway?

Only Marcum's out for the whole year. McGowan's surgery was to repair fraying in the labrum but nothing was found to be wrong with his rotator cuff and he could be ready for the start of the season, probably May at the latest.

Given that you have Matt Watson projected to hit better than average for all positions outside of first base wouldn't he hit better than the vast majority of players on most teams by definition? If he is that good then he should be a starter, not a 4th outfielder.

As to the Jays you have Rios, Rolen, Wells, and Hill projected to hit better than positional average, while Scutaro is listed as just below average for his (seems odd that he appears to be the everyday shortstop for 2009...I keep hoping for a trade to improve there). It isn't good by any stretch, but having just shy of 1/2 the lineup (1/2 a person shy) above average for their position isn't horrible either, in fact it sounds like what 'normal' should be.

Dan, is there any way to manipulate ZiPS into thinking that Cecil will go 5 innings in the games that he starts? I realize that the way the Jays handled him this year is the cause of the projection, but there's the odd rumbling that Cecil could win the 5th starter's spot out of spring training. I can't see that happening if they think they need to keep stretching him out.

Journeyman AAAA OF.
Started out as a 3b in the Expos system. Moved to 2b when people thought he couldn't hit for 3b. Started hitting a lot, but I guess folks decided he wasn't an IF at all, so he moves to LF and puts up some good minor league years. Bounces from the Expos to the Mets to the A's.

Watson played for the Jays AAA team in Syracuse this season. He missed time and only had 252 ab's but did walk a lot. He hit .290 with an OPS of .816. The ZIPS projection of an OPS of .805 is just marginally below his AAA numbers at age 30.

Watson played for the Jays AAA team in Syracuse this season. He missed time and only had 252 ab's but did walk a lot. He hit .290 with an OPS of .816. The ZIPS projection of an OPS of .805 is just marginally below his AAA numbers at age 30.

He was better for Sacramento.

His projection should actually be a little lower - I didn't include his Japanese numbers.

As to the Jays you have Rios, Rolen, Wells, and Hill projected to hit better than positional average, while Scutaro is listed as just below average for his (seems odd that he appears to be the everyday shortstop for 2009...I keep hoping for a trade to improve there). It isn't good by any stretch, but having just shy of 1/2 the lineup (1/2 a person shy) above average for their position isn't horrible either, in fact it sounds like what 'normal' should be.

Not exactly. There are lots of ways to get to "normal". Sure, it would be normal for a lineup to have, say, 4 above-average players, one average player and 4 below-average ... or 3/3/3 or whatever. But, generally, some of those above-average guys will be well above-average. Dan doesn't tell us exactly where average is but basically Rios, Rolen, Wells and Hill are just a hair above-average while Overbay and Lind look to be pretty substantially below-average. Scutaro and Zaun (who may not be back) are a smidgen below average and then you have the mystery DH. So the scary thing about that lineup is that there are no good hitters in it.

The second point is that the "average" is a mix of starters and backups. You want your starters to be ab0ve-average because your subs are going to be below. If Rolen plays 100 games of just above-average 3B you need a near-average backup for 60 -- hard to find.

The bright spot of the Jays lineup is the defense. They are above-average at 4 spots (1B, 2B, 3B, RF) and average at 3 and only below-average in LF (assuming Lind). A near-average offense and above-average defense can add up to fine overall value. And, unlike offensive numbers, backups are often as good or better defensively than the starters so an "average" defensive rating can mean that a player is a little better than the average starter at his position. (But, for ZiPS, "average" is something like +/- 5 runs).

Snider's line seems low... even when you account for his crazy BABIP he's still should be good for a .750-.800 OPS (hey, just like the rest of the lineup!) Or am I just trying to wring anything positive from this lineup?

What is Janssen's projection as a starter?

Is it just me, or is it terrifying how similar this team is to the A's? (It's just not costing Wolff $100M+ plus he's got much more depth in the minors.) Trading Halladay would break my heart, but can somebody please get this guy some post-season innings already?

I'm never sure just how to treat Japanese numbers for the guys who tanked and left quickly (though Watson lasted 363 PA for Lotte over '06/'07) - they tell us more about how they would do in a second stint there than how they would here, I think.

Snider's line seems low... even when you account for his crazy BABIP he's still should be good for a .750-.800 OPS (hey, just like the rest of the lineup!) Or am I just trying to wring anything positive from this lineup?

Yes.

Snider's a talent, but he strikes out a ton, and the league will figure out pretty quickly that he's going to swing and miss a lot and keep extending his zone. He'll eventually adjust, I think, but it's unrealistic to expect much more than what ZiPS is showing. But he is just 20 (21 in February) and by far the best offensive talent on the team.

In case any prospect hounds were curious, Cannon retired recently, though he's still hitting bombs in men's league ball. He just went 1-2 with an HBP, a long homer, and a warning track shot against my (rather sorry) team tonight.