Claire McCaskill's last stand

ST. LOUIS — Sen. Claire McCaskill gets points for creativity: There are signs her Machiavellian maneuver to handpick a far-right Republican congressman as her fall opponent just might work.

Whether the Democrat’s intervention in the jumbled three-way GOP primary is enough to save her in November is another matter.

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The Republican candidate whom McCaskill marketed to voters in a recent TV ad as “Missouri’s true conservative,” Rep. Todd Akin, was closing on multimillionaire John Brunner as voters prepare to head to the polls Tuesday.

But even if she does get her wish to run against Akin — an ardent social conservative seen as the weakest in the GOP field — McCaskill has bigger problems to overcome.

Elected six years ago in a banner cycle for Democrats, McCaskill is now widely seen as the most endangered Democratic senator in the country, running in a reddening state that has fallen out of battleground contention for President Barack Obama. Her support for the president’s big-ticket agenda items like health care reform and the stimulus, coupled with her unforced error of failing to pay property taxes on her personal plane on time, has the charismatic first-termer playing catch-up against all her potential opponents.

With those daunting odds, McCaskill hurled a Hail Mary last month — taking to the airwaves with a spot touting Akin as “the most conservative congressman in Missouri” in his race against businessman John Brunner and Sarah Palin-endorsed former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman.

After deploying a massive war chest to build a double-digit polling lead earlier this summer, the front-running Brunner is now clinging to a tenuous advantage as the contest careens to a close.

The final Public Policy Polling automated snapshot of the campaign showed Brunner’s lead over Akin has dwindled to just 5 points, 35 percent to 30 percent.

Steelman, who was picking up steam in several internal tracking polls after Palin’s endorsement, registered 25 percent.

Early on, Akin’s chances were discounted by the political class. His campaign was beset by organizational snafus and turnover of consultants and staff who grew frustrated by the outsize influence of his wife, Akin’s closest adviser and a ubiquitous presence on the trail. His 12-year record in Washington was seen as a burden among a GOP primary electorate itching for a fresh approach.

But Akin’s strong ties to religious voters and activist conservatives gives him the most intense base of the three.

“It’s still a close enough race that an upset, particularly by Todd Akin, remains possible,” said PPP pollster Tom Jensen.

It’s Akin’s trajectory in what’s expected to be a low-turnout affair that has McCaskill’s troops holding out hope.

When asked why she would rather run against the six-term Republican congressman, McCaskill grinned and paused before deciding against candor.

“They’re all the same,” she said in an interview with POLITICO outside of a canvassing kickoff this weekend at a deli an hour west of St. Louis. “They are. They all want to get out of the U.N., they’re all for privatizing Medicare, they’re all for privatizing Social Security. They all want the federal government out of the student loan business.”

McCaskill’s strategy included two other spots tarring Brunner and Steelman, but the Akin ad rotated on local stations much more frequently and remained on the air here in the closing days. Though it concludes by calling Akin “too conservative,” the crux of the ad is clearly designed to market Akin as the most attractive choice to the hard-right primary electorate.

And there’s evidence it’s working.

Scott Watson, a Springfield Republican, wrote a letter to the local newspaper citing the ad as what helped determine his vote.

“I think it’s time for someone who may be too conservative,” he wrote in the Springfield News-Leader last week. “ Thank you, Sen. McCaskill for running that ad.”

In the PPP survey, Akin is ahead of Brunner among voters who say they’re “very excited” about casting ballots Tuesday.

And speaking to a gathering of Republicans at a barbecue in Springfield on Saturday night, Akin half-embraced McCaskill’s barb. “I’m too conservative,” he quipped.

Make no mistake: McCaskill heads into the fall an underdog regardless of which Republican emerges from Tuesday’s primary. She’s already taken more than $15 million of incoming fire from outside groups or candidates portraying her as too liberal for the Show-Me State. Add in the time already reserved for the fall and the opposition money rockets to $34 million, according to her campaign.