“Prediction is very difficult – especially if it is about
the future.”

In previous blogs (Part
1 and Part
2 of this series) I have shown that we have sometimes got it right in the
past, so if I restrict myself to the future of GeoNet, perhaps I will increase
my chances. So here goes - what will GeoNet (or what GeoNet becomes) look like
in 2023?

Sensor networks 2023 ….

I expect sensor site numbers to explode in the
coming decade as a whole series of technological advances come together. The
number of sensors will increase by at least an order of magnitude, meaning
GeoNet in 2023 will have round 6000 sensor sites available. This sounds
far-fetched, but remember how few real-time sensor feeds we had 10 years ago.

What will bring about this change? I expect the same technology advances
which have revolutionised computer and data communications technology will
finally start making its mark on sensor technology. This has been slow to
happen, but it will. The trick is to increase the density (number of
sensors) while at least maintaining the measurement accuracy. Previous proposals for increased sensor coverage have advocated more but lower quality sensors.
What I envisage is a world where just about everything (position, strain, temperature,
pressure, chemistry, shaking level, etc.) can be measured to a high level of
accuracy.

Where will all
these new sensors come from? The answer is from an extension of existing and
yet to be utilised techniques. For example, sensors for measuring temperature
and pressure can use the changes in the properties of fibre optic cable lengths and rings. Micro-electro-mechanical systems (MEMS)
technology has come a long way in the last decade. We all have MEMS in our
smartphones and tablets to tell the device which way is up (its orientation). These
are low accuracy devices but very good ones exist and are improving all the
time. These are already used in some of the strong shaking instruments we use
(see the CUSP
instruments). Price is the current barrier to widespread use of high accuracy
MEMS sensors in very large numbers.

Consider the recent improvements in GPS technology. Again we all
have GPS receivers in our smartphones and tablets. Expect the accuracy of GPS
devices to increase with time and become part of multi-sensor platforms. In
many respects our current smartphones have much of the technology required to act as
sensor platforms, although they do not yet have the necessary sensor accuracy.

And I have not even mentioned nanotechnology yet! Nanotechnology is the manipulation of matter on an atomic and molecular scale.This
technology is already starting to produce very small sensors, and this trend is
likely to continue. In some ways it is an extension of MEMS technology, but
much smaller. The impact on sensor technology of nanotechnology is very hard to predict!

One of the real barriers to very good sensor coverage of New
Zealand is the sea that surrounds us. It would be so much easier to locate earthquakes and monitor tsunami if we had sensors on the seabed surrounding New
Zealand. The problem is that such sensors are currently very (very) expensive
to install and maintain. But imagine if they were installed as part of the data
communications infrastructure which connects different parts of New Zealand and
other countries. An international collaboration I am involved in, which is a joint undertaking
between United Nations organisations, scientific institutions and commercial companies is investigating the use of submarine cables as instrument platforms for environmental
and hazards monitoring. Cables capable of carrying sensors (usually assumed to be at repeater sites; see Figure 1) are called green
undersea cables. It is early days, but the requirements for low
data latency, which is not
available with most satellite technology, and route diversity will drive terrestrial solutions. It is therefore likely that there will be many more
submarine cables installed in coming years. If these cables are utilised for
sensor deployment we will end up with a huge number of sensors covering the world’s
oceans.

Figure 1: A map of submarine cable routes. Submarine cable repeaters (blue dots) are along the cables although the total number is about four times those shown (40 to 150 km apart). A typical transpacific cable has about 200 repeaters. Current tsunami buoys and other ocean observatories are also plotted. The figure is from an ITU report.

Data communications 2013 ….

This is both the hardest and easiest capability to predict.
If the past predicts the future, then data bandwidth will not be a problem for
GeoNet in 2023. Predicting exactly how bandwidth will be made available to move
the huge amount (by today's standards) of data collected by GeoNet 2013 is difficult. But our data volumes will be tiny compared to super high density
3D video (and virtual reality I assume, having read far too much science
fiction). The "last mile" problem will be solved by current rural broadband initiatives and satellite technologies. So I will leave it at that, assuming there will be ample bandwidth
available “somehow” for GeoNet in 2023!

GeoNet data 2023 ….

Everything will be in the cloud. The GeoNet data centre will
be distributed and very resistant to geological hazards and equipment failures. It
will reconfigure automatically and move data and processing capability and
capacity around as required. The volumes of data collected each day will be
orders on magnitude greater than today, but all data will still be online and easily accessed. The
data archive and delivery will come from somewhere in the cloud electronically
close to you. And the way it is delivered will be very configurable.

GeoNet outputs 2023 ….

By 2023 GeoNet will be providing very fast impact reports
following geological events to a large number of stakeholders as well as
the public and media. Much more background will be provided for events, and
many new ways to visualise GeoNet data and information will be available in 2023. We have started
to move in this direction by reporting likely felt
intensity rather than just magnitude for earthquakes.

It will be a very mobile world – almost all data and
information delivery will be to mobile devices but these will be closely connected to the cloud. With data, information and compute capability existing in the cloud, the distinction between
mobile and fixed devices (like this computer I am typing these words into) will have little meaning. By 2013 GeoNet will be providing not only the data to researchers, but tailored compute capability to allow very detailed data analysis and modeling electronically close to users.

Summary ….

Overall the development of GeoNet will continue to parallel
that of computer and data communications technology. But additionally, expect
to see a huge increase in the number and usability of sensor technology.

That's it from me in 2013. Now all I have to do is live long enough to see what happens!

About Me

I have been the Director of New Zealand GeoNet at GNS Science since 2005. GeoNet is New Zealand’s integrated geological hazards monitor system employing state of the art equipment and telecommunications technology. I am the immediate past chair of the governance group for the Pacific Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System (ICG/PTWS), and a current working group chair.. I am a scientific project manager, seismologist, scientific instrumentation and telecommunications specialist with more than 30 years’ experience. My research has concentrated on geophysical instrumentation, the field studies of large earthquakes, and the study of the deep structure beneath New Zealand and internationally using the seismic waves generated by earthquakes.