Creating a New Media Model

Can epidemiology, the study of the spread of diseases, help the
media business? A dozen strategic planning executives from the
nation's leading technology, media and advertising companies
certainly think so. Last year, these executives, assisted by the
Advertising Research Foundation, formed a project called D-Map to
build what they hope will be a breakthrough model for forecasting
sales and growth of new media.

Although the group has yet to finalize this new model, it came
up with the idea to base it on the principles of epidemiology in
November, when team members such as Jon Swallen, senior vice
president, media knowledge at Interpublic's Universal McCann and
Russell Booth, director of developing technologies with Grey
Advertising's MediaCom, gathered in Tarrytown, N.Y. for their first
meeting. The idea: that growth of new media spreads through a
population much the same way a disease would. So, projections about
the expansion of new media should take into account the fact that
any type of new media spreads through the population in waves
â€” first to early adopters and then to the rest of the
public.

The D-Map model is about one year away from being released to
the industry, according to Russell Neuman, a professor of media
technology at the University of Michigan at Ann Arbor, who is
leading the team of academic researchers building the model.
Although still in very preliminary stages of development, the model
is based on the Bass Model, which was developed 40 years ago to
plot the diffusion of infectious diseases.

With the model for D-Map selected, the team is deciding which
variables are the most meaningful in determining how quickly new
media spreads. These variables include assumptions about new
technology in development, the regulatory landscape, consumer
demand for a particular new media product, as well as the potential
consumer penetration. Next, academics at the MIT Media Lab will
develop the software to run the model. A beta version of the
software should be completed by the time the group meets again this
May, says Neuman. They will then test the new model, running the
program to examine economic assumptions about various new media
â€” everything from, say, the growth of personal video
recorders to the impact of wireless Internet access on when, where
and how people use media. A final meeting is scheduled for next
winter, when the finished product will be unveiled to the industry,
and, the group hopes, in time, accepted as an industry
standard.

â€œWhat we expect to get out of this project is a tool for
more reliable and more credible projections for the rollout and
adoption of different kinds of consumer technologies,â€? says
Swallen. He and other members of the group were frustrated by new
media forecasts that were â€œoverly optimistic or
unrealisticâ€? â€” and often inaccurate â€” because
they were usually guided by subjective business interests.

The main problem with conventional new media forecasts,
according to the D-Map team, is that they are developed mainly by
consultants working for companies that have a vested interest in
their outcome and therefore may manipulate their findings to
support their agenda. As a result, Neuman says he didn't choose to
work with analysts from the private sector to build the D-Map
model. Instead, he picked academics, believing that they would not
be influenced by corporate self-interests. He also selected diverse
corporate media executives, hoping that the cross section of these
media representatives would ensure that any self-interests would
cancel one another out.

â€œThe problem with studies from some research companies is
that there is no opportunity to test their assumptions or vet their
research.â€? Swallen says. â€œWith D-Map, users will have
the opportunity to interrogate at a much more finite, detailed
level, to gain better insights about the drivers that will
influence the adoption of new media technologies.â€?

D-Map members acknowledge that they face a formidable challenge
in trying to create an objective model for making the sales and
growth projections of new media. Others have tried and failed,
largely because they were unable to create a model that was viewed
as objective, Neuman says. Indeed, the goal of D-Map's forecasting
model is to be â€œtransparent,â€? he adds, meaning its
theory and methodology will be open to public scrutiny instead of
being â€œproprietaryâ€? and vague.

Member companies working to build D-Map have each contributed
$20,000 to cover research costs. So far, about a dozen players have
contributed more than $250,000.

The ultimate success of D-Map will depend on how well it infects
the consciousness of the advertising and media industries. While
initial meetings were intentionally kept small to ensure that the
creation of the model would not become unwieldy, the organizers
hope others will join the team and help build an industry
groundswell behind the new model.

Joe Mandese is the editor ofMedia Buyer's
Daily, a sister publication ofAmerican
Demographics, which covers the supply and demand sides of
the advertising marketplace. It targets advertisers, planners,
buyers and sellers of media time and space.