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Friday, 14 March 2014

Almaty Express has got a 169 day absence to overcome but it is my top rated. The trainer hasn't had a winner since September last year. Adam Kirby has only had one ride for the stable but it didn't win. Catalyze has only produced slow times at this course and distance including when it won three races back. It is usually a hold up type and I would be surprised if he could catch the leader. Methaaly comes out joint second on my figures and is usually held up in a race so could run into a place. The stable is yet to have a winner in 2014 and the apprentice jockey has ridden nine times for them without winning. Outbid comes out fourth on my figures but it did win its last race only two days ago so it looks like the trainer is trying to get another win from the horse before the handicapper can re-assess. The horse can lead and there's not much other known early-paced horses in the race so may get an uncontested early lead and be able to set its own pace.Diamond Vine has poor course form and usually tracks the leaders. Kempton or Lingfield may be preferable with the faster surface. Ishetoo is either held up or track the leaders and is the other joint second top rated so could make the frame. The apprentice jockey has ridden most of the stables winners. Excaliber has only produced slow times over course and distance and may really prefer to run over five furlongs. Auntie Mildred is usually held up or tracks the leaders but its another horse that may prefer to run on a faster surface. Athwaab has only produced poor course form. SUMMARY: This race is dominated by Outbid. It's the horse in form and returns quickly before it can be assessed by the handicapper. It may get an easy lead but it still only comes out fourth on my ratings but does look the safest option.6:10 Wolverhampton - Rose Garnet is either held up or tracks the leaders but may prefer a shorter trip. Masked Dance has no form over the course and distance but either tracks the leaders or can even lead but I think its chances are limited. Renoirs Lady may find this trip on the short side and think some of them will be too fast for it to catch but it has produced a time good enough to put it second in this race but it was at seven furlongs. Very First Blade likes to track the leaders and comes out joint second on my six furlong ratings so must have place claims. Daneglow has only produced slow times at five furlongs and the sixth furlong here will probably be too far. Cadmium Loch either likes to track the leaders or lead itself and is top rated. Its got the worst of the draw in stall nine but with this small field and only two other horses that are known to lead it should be able to sit handily even if it can't quite get to the front. If it does manage to lead I think it will lead all the way. If not, it should finish the strongest.Flow Chart can employ a variety of tactics and with two known front runners it may not try to lead here but it is best drawn in stall one and does come out joint second. Steel City Boy can lead at times but has been in very poor form lately and hasn't produced any fast times at this course. May prefer a five furlong race. Red Star Lady likes to track the leaders but its times are quite poor at this course. SUMMARY: I'm hoping that Cadmium Loch can either lead all the way or sit handily and finish the strongest. I won't be having a bet in the 5.40 race although I think the favourite Outbid 5/2 is the safest option. In the 6.10 I will be backing CADMIUM LOCH 9/1, at that price it may be best to back it each way as insurance. (E.R.I.C.) 1st Cadmium Loch 14/1 (Top rated)2nd Flow Chart 16/1 (Joint 2nd rated)3rd Very First Blade 9/2 (Joint 2nd Rated)See Full Result HereForecast £200+ Trifecta £1,400+