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May Auto Sales Likely Curbed by Fewer Weekend Shopping Days

TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE)
projects total new vehicle sales, including fleet deliveries, will reach
1,569,538 units in May, down 4 percent from a year ago, restrained by
one less weekend compared with the same month in 2015.

The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle
sales in May is an estimated 17.8 million units, up from 17.7 million
units a year ago. On a daily selling rate basis, overall sales expanded
by 4 percent when adjusting for two fewer sales days versus May 2015.
Excluding sales to daily rental, commercial and government fleets, U.S.
retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks will likely shrink 4.5
percent to 1,298,681 units.

"Memorial Day weekend kicks off the summer selling season and we see
consistent strength in demand, particularly for crossover utility
vehicles and pickups," said Eric Lyman, TrueCar's vice president of
industry insights. "The industry is up against a tough comparison with
May 2015 – with five weekends then versus four this year – but that
doesn't diminish the market's underlying health."

FCA may report a 1.2 percent increase, the month's biggest
year-over-year sales gain on the continued popularity of its Jeep and
Ram light truck lines. Honda, Nissan and Subaru are all projected to be
relatively flat, with sales down about 1 percent each. Ford is likely to
report a 5 percent drop compared with a year ago, while GM and Toyota
may both see declines of 7.9 percent.

In line with the overall market, volume for non-luxury, mass-market
brands will likely dip by 4.1 percent versus the year-ago month, and
sales of luxury models may also shrink by 3.8 percent.

Incentive spending by automakers averaged an estimated $3,034 per
vehicle in May, up 7.1 percent from a year ago, but down 0.4 percent
from April 2016.

"Incentives moderated a bit this month while consumers stay focused on
higher-margin products," Lyman said. "Along with this May's abbreviated
selling period, automakers have to adapt to weaker demand for midsize
and small cars as relatively cheap gas entices more consumers to upgrade
to crossovers and pickups."

The Federal Open Market Committee left interest
rates unchanged last month and overall U.S. economic conditions
remain positive. April's unemployment
rate held steady at 5.0 percent, the lowest for the month in eight
years, and gasoline prices are still favorable for consumers, falling to
a national average of $2.29
per gallon on May 24 from $2.738 a year earlier.

Total used auto sales, including franchise and independent dealerships
and private-party transactions, may reach 3,181,877 units, up 2
percent from May 2015.

Table 1: Forecasts for the 12 largest manufacturers by volume

Manufacturer

May 2016 Forecast

May 2015

Apr 2016

% Change vs. May 2015

% Change vs. May 2015 (Daily Selling
Rate)

BMW

34,566

36,908

29,826

-6.3%

1.5%

Daimler

31,767

33,187

32,291

-4.3%

3.7%

FCA

206,054

203,568

200,697

1.2%

9.7%

Ford

237,484

250,086

229,739

-5.0%

2.9%

GM

269,868

293,097

259,557

-7.9%

-0.3%

Honda

152,372

154,593

148,829

-1.4%

6.8%

Hyundai

62,978

63,610

62,213

-1.0%

7.3%

Kia

60,935

62,433

56,508

-2.4%

5.7%

Nissan

134,262

134,779

123,861

-0.4%

7.9%

Subaru

48,935

49,561

50,380

-1.3%

7.0%

Toyota

223,500

242,579

211,125

-7.9%

-0.2%

Volkswagen Group

52,594

57,790

50,522

-9.0%

-1.4%

Industry

1,569,538

1,635,090

1,506,977

-4.0%

4.0%

Table 2: Total Market Share

Manufacturer

May 2016 Forecast

May 2015

Apr 2016

BMW

2.2%

2.3%

2.0%

Daimler

2.0%

2.0%

2.1%

FCA

13.1%

12.4%

13.3%

Ford

15.1%

15.3%

15.2%

GM

17.2%

17.9%

17.2%

Honda

9.7%

9.5%

9.9%

Hyundai

4.0%

3.9%

4.1%

Kia

3.9%

3.8%

3.7%

Nissan

8.6%

8.2%

8.2%

Subaru

3.1%

3.0%

3.3%

Toyota

14.2%

14.8%

14.0%

Volkswagen Group

3.4%

3.5%

3.4%

Table 3: Retail Unit Sales

Manufacturer

May 2016 Forecast

May 2015

Apr 2016

% Change vs. May 2015

% Change vs. May 2015 (Daily Selling
Rate)

BMW

33,427

36,157

28,830

-7.6%

0.2%

Daimler

29,714

31,539

30,062

-5.8%

2.1%

FCA

159,922

166,672

154,129

-4.1%

3.9%

Ford

161,484

170,808

152,248

-5.5%

2.4%

GM

214,868

220,231

198,463

-2.4%

5.7%

Honda

150,436

152,334

146,891

-1.2%

7.0%

Hyundai

48,718

52,624

46,861

-7.4%

0.3%

Kia

50,830

50,822

46,628

0.0%

8.3%

Nissan

107,262

113,319

97,390

-5.3%

2.5%

Subaru

45,822

45,874

47,782

-0.1%

8.2%

Toyota

198,823

218,126

186,642

-8.8%

-1.3%

Volkswagen Group

48,853

52,959

46,347

-7.8%

-0.1%

Industry

1,298,681

1,359,948

1,229,881

-4.5%

3.5%

Table 4: Incentive Spending

Manufacturer

Incentive per Unit May 2016
Forecast

Incentive per Unit May 2015

Incentive per Unit Apr 2016

Incentive per Unit % Change vs.
May 2015

Incentive per Unit % Change vs.
Apr 2016

Total Spending May 2016 Forecast

BMW

$4,978

$4,565

$5,290

9.0%

-5.9%

$171,707,338

Daimler

$4,024

$4,283

$4,000

-6.1%

0.6%

$127,813,358

FCA

$3,926

$3,277

$3,982

19.8%

-1.4%

$804,609,038

Ford

$3,433

$2,674

$3,514

28.4%

-2.3%

$815,320,985

GM

$3,941

$3,766

$4,012

4.7%

-1.8%

$1,063,644,940

Honda

$1,635

$1,939

$1,604

-15.7%

1.9%

$249,064,276

Hyundai

$2,032

$2,330

$2,008

-12.8%

1.2%

$127,940,407

Kia

$2,715

$2,724

$2,722

-0.3%

-0.2%

$165,463,033

Nissan

$3,342

$3,415

$3,232

-2.1%

3.4%

$448,764,037

Subaru

$612

$751

$595

-18.5%

2.8%

$29,939,793

Toyota

$2,029

$2,020

$1,996

0.4%

1.6%

$453,431,066

Volkswagen Group

$3,448

$2,947

$3,443

17.0%

0.1%

$180,283,999

Industry

$3,034

$2,834

$3,047

7.1%

-0.4%

$4,749,550,897

Note: This forecast is based solely on TrueCar's analysis of
industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection or
reflection of the company's operations.

About TrueCar

TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE) is a digital automotive marketplace that
provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid
for their cars and enables consumers to engage with TrueCar Certified
Dealers who are committed to providing a superior purchase experience.
TrueCar operates its own branded site and its nationwide network of more
than 11,000 Certified Dealers also powers car-buying programs for some
of the largest U.S. membership and service organizations, including
USAA, AARP, American Express, AAA and Sam's Club. Over one third of all
new car buyers engage with the TrueCar network during their purchasing
process. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with
offices in San Francisco and Austin, Texas. For more information, go to www.truecar.com.
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