The study by Working America, shared exclusively with The Nation, finds that many Trump voters are up for grabs—but also points to a lack of progressive infrastructure.

January 18, 2017

Participants in the meeting that President-elect Donald Trump is holding in the city of Hershey, Pennsylvania, as part of the USA Thank You Tour. (Sputnik via AP / Caitlin Ochs)

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As Donald Trump’s popularity with white working-class voters became vexingly apparent a year ago, the pro-labor organization Working America sent its canvassers out to have “front-porch conversations” with more than a thousand voters in Ohio and Pennsylvania. The AFO-CIO–affiliated group found trouble: Twenty-five percent of the Democrats they contacted said they would be voting for Trump. His appeal wasn’t about specific issues, Working America director Karen Nussbaum told me last year. “They have a strong feeling that government isn’t working for them, and they want political leadership that helps them. If we move them to clarify who’s really to blame and who really will help, we can help make sense of a frightening situation.”

Apparently, Democrats failed to do that. In the states Working America canvassed, a surprising number of white working-class voters who had backed Barack Obama chose Trump over Hillary Clinton, helping flip those states to the GOP. So after the election, Nussbaum’s team went back into the field, surveying over 2,300 voters in Ohio and Pennsylvania to make sense of what had happened. Their conclusion, provided exclusively to The Nation today: Many Trump voters “are as up for grabs [to Democrats] now as they were before the election,” Nussbaum said. That may be of little comfort, two days before the inauguration, but it should remind Democrats that the defection of some of their voters to Trump wasn’t a lasting shift based on policy but a bad choice these voters nonetheless perceived as best for them.

Working America’s post-election report resists a shrieking, clickbait headline. Like all of the group’s work, it’s the result of conversations, not polling, so extrapolating from its numbers can be hard. It’s also not trying to be a scientific, demographically correct sample. For example, it deliberately over-interviewed Democrats, as well as white voters, and included non-voters in its data. As a result, white voters in the survey favored Clinton over Trump 47-40 percent (with the rest either voting third party or staying home); nationwide, white voters backed Trump 58-37. Voters of color in the survey backed Clinton 75-10, which was closer to the national result. A disturbing 11 percent of voters of color the group surveyed didn’t vote at all, compared with 6 percent of white voters. Among the Trump voters, there were some “lock her up” diehards, Nussbaum said. But most of them “wanted to talk with us, they’re still searching.” One-third of the folks they canvassed decided to join Working America, an openly pro-labor progressive organization—and of those, one out of five voted for Trump.

“None of us won,” a 50-something white male Trump voter on Cleveland’s west side told veteran organizer Soren Norris when he visited him after the election. “I had teased him, ‘Well, your guy won, I’m the one who should be dejected here,” Norris told me. That “none of us won” answer “echoed a theme I heard from a lot of Trump voters,” Norris said. Back in July, I followed Norris around Brooklyn, Ohio, just outside of Cleveland, to talk to white working-class voters there. Six months later, we reconnected by phone, and he shared some of what he heard after the election. It was confusing, he admitted.

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There was the woman who got insurance through the Affordable Care Act, and voted for Trump anyway, because, she said, “he’s just talking, he won’t get rid of it.” An 80-something lifelong Democrat switched to Trump because “he didn’t feel safe anymore.” A lot of the Trump voters he talked to “just couldn’t stomach Hillary.” But most disturbing to Norris was talking to people who didn’t vote, who tended to be younger and/or voters of color. “They really regretted not voting,” he said. “They didn’t realize Trump could win.”

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Interestingly, both Trump and Clinton voters had similar priorities for the president-elect. Their top two issues were jobs/the economy and a change in Trump’s rhetoric, with Clinton voters ranking “change his rhetoric” first and jobs/the economy second; Trump voters flipped that order.

Nussbaum finds hope in “the similarities of concerns and priorities” between Trump and Clinton voters, as well as in the fact that so many Trump voters seemed to have made their choice reluctantly. I reminded her that, last summer, she had told me that Clinton “can absolutely be competitive” with swing-state white working-class voters (and for the record, I wholeheartedly agreed). That prediction ended up being wrong; Clinton lost white working-class voters by a significantly larger margin than Obama did in 2008 and 2012. I asked Nussbaum, gently: what happened?

The Working America leader declined to criticize the campaign, but admitted Clinton’s message did not get through. “The problem comes down to: Who are they listening to? It’s a lot of right-wing media,” she said. Many voters told Working America’s canvassers that “Hillary doesn’t ever say what she’s for,” Nussbaum explained. Canvassers could share “the fact that she has a very developed plan. But they didn’t hear it.”

Just as Working America’s findings resist simplification, its prescriptions do too. The biggest problem, Nussbaum says, is that “the left hasn’t built any kind of infrastructure. Given the decline of unions, what is there in these communities that expresses our values? Who is there to tell people the truth? How do we break through the monolithic messaging” of the right,” she asks. “We treat elections like a short-term project every two years. We need to invest in all kinds of communities, in local activism that puts people together in coalition.”

Interestingly, Working America’s canvassers found, despite the story line that “Trump didn’t have a ground game,” Nussbaum says, the number of Trump voters who told canvassers they’d been contacted by Trump campaign was close to the number of Clinton voters who said they’d be reached by the Clinton campaign. It could be that the Trump campaign was stealthier; it could also be the role that the Koch-brothers group Americans for Prosperity, or the NRA, played in activating local networks that turned out the Trump vote. Canvassers found more AFP literature on doors they knocked on than they expected, Nussbaum said. (This echoes Harvard sociologist Theda Skocpol’s influential take on the institution gap between progressives and conservatives.)

In the end, Nussbaum said, Working America’s canvass provides progressives some reason for optimism. “We talked to people who had just voted for a woman-hating demagogue. But there’s an openness and fluidity now that we can’t afford to ignore.” Some Trump voters, she predicts, “won’t want to tell their grandkids they voted for him.” That’s why Democrats can’t afford to write off the white working class, she said. “We have to bring along the folks who are open—we can’t govern without them.”

Joan WalshTwitterJoan Walsh, The Nation’s national-affairs correspondent, is the author of What’s the Matter With White People? Finding Our Way in the Next America.

Joan seems to have the same problem with readers as HRC had with voters.

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Richard Strawsays:

January 23, 2017 at 7:23 am

If the Democrats would quit spending money on high priced headquarters, expensive (and lousy) consultants, stupid TV ads and start spending it on building the infrastructure(that my local Dims wouldn't even give time to-for years-after trying for decades I gave up trying) in local communities-face to face-not electronically mediated-with local offices in lots of towns and neighborhoods-with people in them to act as interface between the party and the people-spend money supporting local causes-show up-walk the picket line-and any of a thousand other acts that would render them relevant-do I think they will wake up-no-I am saddened, for example, at the loud support by the Dems for the very Republican profit protection plan(ACA)while voting to make sure consumers continue to pay the highest drug prices in the world-with their votes on our bloated and very destructive military(now in the hands of an )and needless wars-propping up the oil infrastructure-lack of support for their own voters(mostly in minority districts-curious)I don't think the Democrats can be reached.

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Michael Poprawasays:

January 19, 2017 at 9:20 pm

Once again the incredibly disingenuous drivel from a self declared "progressive" (as all Democrats now appear to be, rendering the term deceptive, dysfunctional and useless). Joan, I know short term memory loss can be a real problem, but your case would appear to be chronic. You used every available article space to disparage, make false accusations (racism and sexism) and otherwise attempt to defeat (by whatever unsavory means at your disposal) the only person involved in the 2016 election that could possibly qualify as a progressive, Bernie Sanders. Now you wonder innocently where the left "infrastructure" is? I would suggest that the only thing you know about the left, is that what comes out of the left side of your mouth, doesn't bear any resemblance to what comes out of the right. Even though almost every word of propaganda you wrote this election cycle has turned out to be dead wrong, you still pretend to be a viable political commentator. The reasons for the recent electoral debacle are many, some more nuanced than others, but high on the list ( I'll keep it simple for the queen of banality) is that people like you, Debbie Wasserman Schultz, Donna Brazille, Robby Mook, John Podesta, David Brock, the DNC, and the Queen herself, Hillary Clinton, pursued such a low road attempting to install Hillary that the stench was unavoidable. Add the incredible hubris of the Dems, who were going to take back the Senate and maybe even the House and didn't even campaign in critical states (Hillary campaigned in APRIL during the primaries in Wisconsin, which she lost big to Bernie and amazingly never returned, she lost by 27,000 votes)! Add the narcissistic showman who preached a false populism and actually campaigned and talked to people (he held over 400 rallies), told his core of racist, misogynistic, xenophobic misfits what they wanted to hear and lied about the rest to the many. All of it adds up to a recipe for disaster. So the people who regret voting for Trump or for not voting at all, don't regret not voting for the corrupt Democrat, only that Donald Trump won - big difference.
So where is the infrastructure of the left? On the outside looking in, fighting against two equally corrupt (in different fashion) neoliberal parties. With all the talk about unions and the loss of the working class vote, I can only point out that since the Reagan administration both parties have held true to neoliberal policy, which includes the dismantling of unions ( I tire of repeating the litany of neoliberal offenses committed by the Clinton and Obama administrations). So the Repugs serve their Billionaire overlords openly, with no apparent shame and endorse unenlightened social norms, while the Repubocrats (neoliberal Democrats) hide their dirty laundry and obedience to their Billionaire overlords under the bed and seemingly embrace enlightened "liberal" social norms (except when it interferes with their money flow). The problem is after 35+ years of dirty laundry piling up under the bed it has overflowed to fill the whole bedroom and the stench fills the whole house. That's why people didn't trust and get out the vote for Hillary. The one aspect of Bernie's run that doesn't get talked about enough is that he didn't just talk the talk, he walked the walk. He is the only candidate in modern history who actually lived the reality of being free of corporate money and its influence and showed us it is possible to ignite a movement and fight the corrupt Pay to Play, quasi-bribery system that passes for "democracy" in the U.S.
So what now? Blame the Russians for interfering in our politics ( apparently the concept of irony doesn't exist at the CIA) without producing any hard evidence. Blame the unmotivated and disenfranchised who don't feel represented by either party, for the monster both parties helped to create? For those of you who still don't know what the term "neoliberalism" actually refers to, you will soon. The false promises of Herr Drumph, already dispensed with before he even takes office, assembling a nightmare cabinet of the most misfit creeps ever assembled in one administration, and Repug control of all the branches of govt., we are about to witness the full, unbridled onslaught of neolberal economics and its inherent social destruction, as well as some truly barbaric attacks on "liberal" social issues.
So I would suggest that we stop listening to establishment toadies like Joan and her ilk; or "progressive" Cory Booker, who has the distinction of being the first sitting Senator to testify against another sitting Senator -Sessions- at a cabinet confirmation hearing (yea !) and then at a critical moment when millions of people are looking at the probable loss of health care and a dismantling of Medicare and Medicaid, a truly rare event takes place, some bipartisan support - enough Republicans cross over and support the Sanders/Kobuchar amendment (which would have allowed the importation of much cheaper pharmaceuticals from Canada) and Booker along with 12 other Democrats vote against it, followed by the revelation that Booker is third behind two Repugs in receiving Big Pharma contributions; or "progressive" corporate lobbyist and stooge Howard Dean, who has said that Independent Journalist Glenn Greenwald must be a Russian operative, because he dared to point out that no evidence has actually been produced to support the Washington Post's two articles (one of which was so shoddy, it later had to be retracted by the Post) which started the whole Russian hacking thing. The only way forward for the Democratic Party to become relevant again is a complete 'house cleaning', a dumping of neoliberal policy, a return to the previous core constituency ( before Wall Street and Corporate America), so we can make a coordinated stand against the coming onslaught. All of which makes Joan's drivel more irrelevant than ever.

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Christopher Nicholsonsays:

January 25, 2017 at 6:32 am

If Katrina replaced Walsh with you I might actually renew my subscription.

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Michael Robertsonsays:

January 22, 2017 at 10:05 pm

Amen times 10. The Clinton Democrats still continue the blame game. Everything else is to blame for Clinton's loss except Clinton herself. They now find themselves in the ridiculous position of making common cause with the likes of warhawks McCain and Graham, with absolutely no sense of irony or self-awareness. They still cannot let go of the belief that the same old tired neoliberalism will work the next time around.

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Karin Eckvallsays:

January 19, 2017 at 10:49 pm

Very well put, and I share your frustration and your disillusionment about what the Democratic party has become.

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Doug Barrsays:

January 18, 2017 at 2:26 pm

'Progressives' won't have to win voters from Trump. Democrats voted for Trump because they believed he can fill the void in their lives. When they find out he can't they will either return or join the increasing numbers who believe no one can, giving hope the political conflict is not interminable. https://thelastwhy.ca/poems/2016/11/12/american-election-2016

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Carolyn Renaudsays:

January 18, 2017 at 1:16 pm

As much as I love him, I put this loss squarely on our community organizer in chief, Obama. He did nothing to make sure the party he led was growing roots in communities across America that he touched so deeply in 2008. We had American hearts, and we turned our backs on them and went back to business as usual.

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Jim Notestinesays:

January 18, 2017 at 10:06 pm

Thank you Carolyn! Spot on great comment.

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Robert Andrewssays:

January 18, 2017 at 12:21 pm

Trump was elected based on three main reasons. First, the populous was (still is) completely disgusted with the establishment government as a whole. Second, the RNC establishment was too spread out with candidates and lacked a super-delegate parachute to keep Trump from being nominated. Third, the DNC establishment had to expose it's ugly head, with the immoral tactics they utilized to beat back the anti-establishment progressive movement. Progressives knew that they were on the cusp of taking the nomination and not only did they have to swallow the nasty pill shoved down their throat at the convention, but live with further insults from the establishment afterwards. The results kept a large portion of the Progressives at home or drove them to another candidate (including Trump).

If the DNC wants to move forward, they need to embrace the True Progressives. Real actions will be needed, then just attacking Trump and the RNC. If the DNC establishment doesn't remove itself from being constantly on the corporate teat, then they will go next to nowhere with the True Progressives. A good start for Democrats would be to make Keith Ellison the new DNC chair and show the courage to stand-up and be heard beyond the establishment party line.

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Karin Eckvallsays:

January 18, 2017 at 11:31 pm

Did you watch the DNC chair debate (FB, HuffPost Politics, follow, videos, all videos)? I really like Ellison but I was also impressed with the three candidates who are state party chairs, as well as the millennial mayor of South Bend, Indiana. They left me thinking that maybe we need someone who is closer to the grass roots level.

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Clark M Shanahansays:

January 22, 2017 at 10:05 am

Karin,
Be weary of Idaho's Boynton-Brown.
She seems to have backed HRC, when 80% of their caucus was for Sanders. She seems to want to sweep under the rug the Obama/DNC antics that abused Sanders and helped Trump take the White House.
Most likely the ThirdWay Dems still want to remain in charge. As Pelosi has already stated, there is no reason for serious introspection after our loss.

I am open for someone else other than Ellison for the chair. An initial quick vetting could be done by seeing who they supported during the last primary.

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Karin Eckvallsays:

January 18, 2017 at 12:15 pm

Interesting, thank you. Regarding voters not "hearing" Hillary's plans, I wonder if the problem was really that they heard her and didn't believe her.

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Michael Robertsonsays:

January 22, 2017 at 10:09 pm

It was more a failure to communicate. Clinton focused on Trump's character flaws instead of what she would do for working class people.

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Walter Pewensays:

January 23, 2017 at 11:32 pm

What WOULD she have done for working people? Very little, I would suggest. She might have helped women, but not as much as people hoped. I for one am glad to have the Clintons finally out of the picture. They can go back to Arkansas, where they can hang at Walmart. There is nothing going on with Hillary, never really was....

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Hunter Van Valkenburghsays:

January 18, 2017 at 11:52 am

Bernie woulda won. Thanks for backing the wrong horse.

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Michael Robertsonsays:

January 22, 2017 at 10:12 pm

Bernie could have answered Trump's faux populism with real populism. Bernie has the ability to take Trump's claims, agree with some of them, then show how he could actually fix things and show that Trump was an empty suit, without ever getting down in the gutter. Bernie had an answer for all of Trump's BS.

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Jim Notestinesays:

January 18, 2017 at 10:04 pm

Agree, where was Joan before the election? Bernie had it figured out from the git go. Why does the Nation still waste ink on Joan Walsh?