A quarter of Ukip voters at European elections unlikely to stick with party

The poll found that despite the surging popularity of Nigel Farage’s party, a quarter (23%) of likely Ukip voters at the European Parliamentary elections say they are unlikely to vote for the party at the General Election next year. Just 55% say that they are very likely to vote for the party in 2015, compared to 90% of Labour voters and 88% of Conservative voters.

However, two thirds of 2010 Conservatives (67%) now saying they would vote Ukip say that they are likely to stay with their new party for the General Election.

Ukip leader Nigel Farage. Credit: Press Association

Ukip open up clear lead in run up to European elections

The survey found Ukip have opened up a clear lead in the run up to next month’s elections for the European Parliament. 38% of Britons certain to vote say that they would cast their ballot for the party, compared to 27% who would vote for Labour, 18% who would vote for the Conservatives and 8% who would vote Lib Dem.

Ukip's performance at European Elections could hinge on turnout

However, much could hinge on turnout. These figures are based on those saying that they are 10/10 likely to vote (which would imply a 39% turnout). However, if the criteria is widened to take into account all those say saying that they are at least 5/10 likely to vote, Ukip only receive 32% of the potential vote share, just 4 points ahead of Labour on 28%.