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Aug. 11, 2010
Thank you for taking the time to read the 3rd version of this theory. The Japanese text outside of the spoiler tags is not part of the theory so don't worry.
The new format was inspired by another awesome culprit analysis so please take the time to read that one as well.

さて、始めましょうか。

Spoiler for Part 1, Observer:

Prior to episode 6, I came up with the idea that the mastermind is also an entity that can appear in the meta world but for the first five episodes has only been an observer regarding the meta world discussions. In that hypothesis, Bernkastel was approached by the mastermind at the end of episode 6 and was challenged to become the game master for episode 7. If Bernkastel represents blue truth then she may be dismissed alongside all other incorrect theories, depending on how much of the answer is revealed in episode 7.

We now know that such an observer does exist [1] and her name is Featherine Augustus Aurora. She also has the authority to appoint Bernkastel the game master for episode 7 [2]. For this reason, I believe that Featherine must be an important character. She has the authority to prevent Bernkastel, Lambdadelta, and even Beatrice from interfering with her observation of the game [3].

Ryukishi07 did something interesting in episode 6. He introduced the witch of theatergoing, Featherine, and in the same chapter he introduced her human form, Hachijou Tooya. If this new character is not just an observer and is important to the storyline then she must be a character we have some familiarity with from the beginning of the game. Those who have thoroughly analyzed this story should have gained familiarity with its author, who is also a character within the game itself. From the onset, we have been warned that this is how you play this game [4].

Quote:

Originally Posted by Episode 5

Also, at the end of the 1st game, it was revealed that this tale was passed on to people in the future by that message bottle.

......Someone had written about this crime...this tale.

In other words, ......this tale is all part of a world which includes the personal opinions of an observer, namely, the person who wrote that message in a bottle.

In other words, the observer isn't God.
It's a human.

Therefore, there's no guarantee that this description is truly impartial.

By the end of the 1st game, it had already been made clear that we've broken the constant premise of the mystery genre: that the story itself must be seen through the eyes of God.

For that reason, it's possible to doubt even the observer, as well as the witnesses.

If I could've doubted this much, ......then no matter how many seemingly unsolvable displays of magic appeared, I wouldn't have had to blindly accept them and give up......

However, that begs the question: .........is it even possible to solve a tale written by an observer who isn't impartial?

この物語は、本当は誰の意志によって繰り返されているのだろうか。

Spoiler for Part 2, 07151129:

From the viewpoint of the 1998 world, no amount of research would lead to the discovery of the PIN number to access the secure vault. Yet the author of episode 3 knew about it. Eva was the only person to make it off the island alive and she wrote down the number 07151129 [5]. Eva trusted Okonogi [6] and could have passed the number to him.

In episode 6, Ange was brought to Hachijou Tooya’s home by Amakusa Juuza, a man hired by Okonogi [7]. Her memories were muddled and she could not remember how she got there. Did someone attempt to erase part of her memory? If so, what could it have been regarding? Hachijou said the reason she met with Ange was because she was impressed with her ability to decipher her pen name [8]. Why would Hachijou want to meet with Ange based on this? If someone did attempt to erase part of her memory was this what it was regarding?

If the purpose of the meeting was to confirm that Ange still retained the memory of how to decipher Hachijou’s pen name then was it Amakusa’s role to confirm that she did still know it? At the end of episode 6 it was implied that it had become Amakusa’s duty to kill Ange [9]. Was the ability to decipher Hachijou’s pen name the dangerous piece of information?

Or was Ange being used by Okonogi to locate Hachijou Tooya? If Okonogi believed that Hachijou knew the location of the gold what method could he have used to make the mysterious author come out of hiding? Perhaps, Ange was that method.

Itouikukuro Reigonamu. In Japanese this looks like: 伊藤幾九郎〇五七六. Ange was able to see through this pen name [10] by using the various different readings of the kanji to form numbers: 11019960576. This number is equal to 18 to the 8th power and in Japanese: １８の８乗. When this is written as十八のハチジョウ (Tooya no Hachijou) we get Hachijou Tooya.

In episode 4 there were several letters sent out to various family members of the victims of the Rokkenjima incident. However, none of the letters contained the name of a person. Only the number 07151129 [11]. Using this clue, this number may be an alias like the number 11019960576 from episode 6.

What can be done with this number? First, look at this quote from an interview with Ryukishi:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ryukishi

Irrespective of whether each number has a meaning, at least the eight numbers combined together has a certain significance. I can only say this: Just think of it as a PIN number. People who hold the key or the key card couldn't get into the safe without this sequence of numbers. That means, as long as you know this number sequence, it's possible to gain a large sum of money. Aside from that, since this 8-number sequence is used as an important PIN number, the numbers themselves must have some significance. Otherwise, those numbers themselves and the large sum of money...

Also, Nanjo suggested combining the eight numbers in episode 3 [12]. The sum of 0 + 7 + 1 + 5 + 1 + 1 + 2 + 9 is 26. Using the clue that 07151129 might be an alias and the clue to combine the numbers together:
Can 26 be linked to a person using a method similar to the one Ange used in episode 6 [10]?

-----

1. Start with a name of a character within the game
右代宮明日夢

2. Use the various different readings of the kanji to form numbers
うしろ３８ ３８２６

3. Write down what this is equal to
後ろ３８ ３８２６ ＝ ２６

-----

1. Start with a name of a character within the game
八城十八

2. Use the various different readings of the kanji to form numbers
８じょう１８

3. Write down what this is equal to
８上１８ ＝ ２６

-----

Next question; why arrange the numbers as 07151129? Another clue from the game is that 0715 forms Battler’s birthday [13]. If it’s a date then 1129 could be 11:29am or 11:29pm.

Kyrie’s ‘stillbirth’ occurred on this day. The significance of the number being arranged like this could be that it is the exact moment in time that Kyrie lost to a certain other character [14]...

伝説は胡散の実と共に隠されて…０７１５１１２９…

Spoiler for Part 3, Ushiromiya Asumu:

About Ushiromiya Asumu

Asumu probably appeared to most people as a woman who was devoted to her family much like Natsuhi [15].

She was more intelligent and cunning than Kyrie when it comes to affairs of the heart [16]. There was nothing unusual about how she fought with Kyrie for Rudolf. However, if Asumu stole Kyrie’s baby and raised him as her own then she can’t be considered a good person or even a rational person. This is strongly hinted to have occurred since Ushiromiya Battler is not Ushiromiya Asumu's son and a baby swap has been hinted at as well [14].

What Asumu had done to win Rudolf coupled with the fact that she started out as a commoner [17] makes it likely that she was motivated by the riches of marrying into a wealthy family. Even Eva, who was born into the wealthy Ushiromiya family and always desired to become the successor to the head, probably wouldn’t have gone to such extreme lengths.

Asumu had won over Kyrie but Kyrie did not give up. Rudolf cheated on Asumu and Kyrie got pregnant [18]. One can imagine how Asumu would react to Kyrie using the same method that she had to win Rudolf back. Since Rudolf was cheating on her it probably became clear to Asumu that he was no longer on her side. At that point, Asumu probably knew that it would soon be revealed that Battler was not her real son by Rudolf [19]. At least Rosa still had Maria after her husband left her. What would Asumu be left with?

The love trial of episode 6 reflects Asumu’s life experience. Only one couple can reach the miracle of love.

The lack of discussion regarding Asumu’s death circumstances serves as a clue that something is amiss. The author of the stories may be withholding this vital information and it could be a clue regarding the true identity of the author. She was too young to have died a natural death. Battler’s sin occurring around the same time as her reported death is also suspicious.

Battler used to have feelings for Shannon [20]. Shannon remembered exactly how Battler was and what he used to say to her [21] so she probably had feelings for him as well. However, Shannon believed that she was furniture and needed the miracle of magic to attain love [22]. Battler made Shannon feel love for the first time but left the promise of returning to her unfulfilled. This was his sin and it fits with the theme “without love it cannot be seen”.

Asumu had a good relationship with Battler and probably knew about his feelings for Shannon. Asumu also used to talk with Shannon [23]. Asumu probably knew about how Shannon viewed herself as furniture and about her feelings for Battler.

When Kyrie became pregnant if Asumu felt that she was going to lose her family she may have taken extreme measures again just as she did when she stole Kyrie’s child. She could have faked her death and used Shannon to spy on the head family to swindle them for their money. Given the knowledge that Asumu probably had of Battler and Shannon’s relationship it would not be difficult to manipulate her. Asumu has been shown to be a very cunning manipulator when it comes to relationships [16]. Also, the author of the later episodes seems to be a master of the art of faking one’s death. It is also suspicious that the head family began to experience financial problems shortly after Asumu’s reported death.

The epitaph was Kinzo’s will but it is likely that Shannon had a hand in writing that will [24]. The treasures promised at the end of epitaph match the motives of Asumu and Shannon. The riddle of the epitaph which gives motive to the culprit can be considered Rule Z. Asumu stole Kyrie’s child to ensure that she would rise from a commoner to a wife married into a wealthy family. Forcing the family to locate the hidden gold and then swindling them for more money would be an ultimate prize. Shannon believed she was furniture and also believed that all furniture could become human in the golden land [25]. From Shannon’s view, completing the epitaph ritual would grant humanity for both Kanon and herself. That is one possible motive to go along with the plan.

However, in the end, there was a betrayal on both sides.

Shannon believed that a golden brooch granted her the magic to attain love and no longer needed reach the golden land to become human[26]. She no longer needed to complete the epitaph ritual. She had already written down everything that had been planned in two separate message bottles and threw them out to sea. She gave Maria the credit for the tales because they were based on Maria’s way of thinking.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Maria’s way of thinking

Maria onee-chan’s way of thinking really is unusual. According to her, from the beginning, a witch had resided in that place called a school. No, she says that anywhere that a lot of people gather will most certainly have a witch residing there.

The witch tries to steal the students’ souls through death by disease or accidents. Apparently, she sometimes also corrupts the souls, leading them down that path of evil. She says that an angel came, not content to let that happen.

“And the angel, she tried to finish off that witch. But the witch was powerful, and the fight took seven days and seven nights, but even then, it still wasn’t finished. The tired out witch asked for a truce, and proposed this.”

“I’ve heard this before. ‘Until now, I have made half of the students in the class become sick or injured. But in exchange, I have protected the remaining half of the students from sickness and injury. Therefore, if one member of the class becomes a sacrifice to me and is made into the ‘bullied kid’, I shall protect all of the other students from sickness and injury’ ...wasn’t it?”

“Uu-. The angel thought about it. Compared to half the class meeting with misfortune, having only one person be unfortunate would be much better. Then, the witch said that she would protect the safety of all the other students, using her powerful magic.”

“If there are 40 students in a class and the 20 victims are shrunk down to 1, then 19 people are saved. It actually is a reasonable proposition.”

I wonder if this fairy tale has some kind of motif. If it’s a creation of Maria onee-chan, a nine year old girl, that would be pretty impressive.

“The angel decided to accept that proposal. So, through the single sacrifice, 19 people were saved. So Maria’s role is important. The witch is protecting 19 people.”

“Because we become sacrifices? Well, I don’t remember ever being thanked by those 19 people.”

Maria onee-chan’s idea was too compassionate. The misfortune of my and her situations are very similar. And yet, maybe you could say that because of a small difference in our way of thinking, there’s a difference in how peaceful our hearts are.

In Shannon’s stories Beatrice was protecting the family by taking the blame for the entire incident. Beatrice is the embodiment of this rule [27]. This can be considered Rule Y.

Shannon also took all the money that had been swindled from the head family and sent it all back to all the families [28]. Shannon probably selected October 3rd [29] to send the letters because she planned on the family conference being her last day of work. She wrote Asumu’s alias ‘07151129’ on the letters which was also the PIN to access the secure bank vault.

The way Battler celebrated with everyone at the end of the sixth game makes me believe that none of them committed any murder on Rokkenjima’s real world. After Battler learned the truth and when he became the game master he didn’t commit any murders to prove he understood Beatrice’s game. He may have been trying to show that no murders occurred on Rokkenjima’s real world other than the bomb at the very end. A piece cannot make a move outside of its own nature. Yet it seems to be within all the pieces nature to fake their deaths.

If someone was truly behind the head family’s financial trouble and wanted to erase all evidence of it then what measures could be taken? Planting a bomb to blow up the island where the head family lives is not a rational solution. However, consider what Eva said in episode 1. It takes seven years for a person who has gone missing to be declared legally dead [30]. If Asumu wanted to deceive the family by faking her death then it may have been part of her plan to keep up the deception for six years. On the seventh year, the entire family would be already be dead by the bomb. She would no longer need to continue the deception and could release new information along with the disaster indicating that Asumu’s corpse was actually never found six years prior. It’s not likely that there would be an investigation of this since the death of the entire family would take the spotlight. Since seven years would have already passed she would be declared legally dead and not have to worry about the deception any longer. Not only would blowing up the family cover up the revelation that her corpse was actually missing, she would gain the ultimate revenge on Rudolf for his betrayal.

Another possible hint that Asumu was behind the bomb was the fact that Ange was the only one left behind. If Asumu was behind the bomb and also caused Ange to become ill then Kyrie’s child was doomed to a miserable life without her family. The bomb which kills everyone at the end of each episode regardless of what events occur can be considered Rule X.

Two major things that could have gone wrong for Asumu:

Battler actually showed up at the family conference.

The money that had been swindled from the head family was all gone because it had already been sent back to all the families.

She was reduced to nothing again. However, she later became an author who never appeared in public [31] since she was supposed to be dead. What did she write? She arrogantly wrote and profited off of this tale believing that no one would solve the mystery.

右代宮明日夢の無念は、誰が晴らすんですか。

Spoiler for Part 4, Author Analysis:

Now let’s begin a brief analysis of the authors of this story. There is a clear distinction between how the characters of this story are portrayed in the first two episodes versus the rest of the episodes.

First of all, the author of the fourth episode wanted to portray Kyrie’s child as one of the most miserable humans on the face of the earth.

Second, the author doesn’t seem to have any desire to reveal any details of Asumu’s death.

Third, Kyrie is described to have been burning with envy for 18 years and even commented that she would be envious of Asumu for the rest of her life and all eternity [32].

Next, Episode 1 was a story based on a message in a bottle that a character within the game wrote [33]. The author chose a quote from Higurashi no naku koro ni, where the mother of the main character of the story described the method of the perfect crime [34]. Why did the author choose to quote the mother of the main character of that story? Remember that the message in a bottle author wanted the truth to be discovered [35] and hints were intentionally left throughout the story.

Battler liked to read mystery novels. It’s been suggested that various aspects of his behavior were greatly influenced by the mother that raised him [36]. Did he pick up that hobby from the mother who raised him?

Neither of the first two episodes portrayed any of the mothers as murderers or even with an evil intent to kill. This changed from the third episode onward.

Consider the story that Natsuhi was forced to reveal which she had been hiding as a family secret [37]. According to Natsuhi, this occurred... 19 years ago. Natsuhi was portrayed as the murderer of the servant and the baby who fell off a cliff and died on Rokkenjima. Also, Episode 4 has convinced everyone that she was just delusional all along with the revelation that Kinzo was dead before the start of any game.

Now consider Rosa’s story [38]. Both stories occurred around the same time and end with death by falling off a cliff. However, there are some inconsistencies. Rosa said her mother was on the island at that time but Natsuhi did not. Rosa never mentioned any baby in her story but she was portrayed as being responsible for the death of Beatrice. Consider the difference between the scenes where Rosa was tortured in episode 2 [39] and in episode 4 [40].

There was no ambiguity regarding Eva. The author of the third episode just simply wrote that Eva was the one who killed Battler [41].

What about the other characters? None are really portrayed as murderers. So the author of EP1 & EP2 wants to portray Beatrice as the culprit but the author of EP3 and beyond wants to hint at a human culprit.

The author of EP1 & EP2 is likely to be Shannon. In episode 2, she was the only one present in a several scenes which took place prior to October 4th. She believed in magic [22] and claimed to be able to speak with Beatrice [43].

The author of the later episodes seems to be sending a message that fake deaths are an important to this story.

The author of later episodes knows the family's deepest secrets:

Beatrice who was held captive in Kuwadorian.

The incident where Beatrice fell off the cliff.

Battler’s birth circumstances.

Kyrie’s story from 18 years in the past.

The truth about Kinzo’s death.

How could the author have known about all of this? She had to have been close to the family at that time. But EP3 was written well after the incident that killed off the entire family. So who was left?

Even though Shannon wrote the first two episodes, I can’t believe that she is the author of the later episodes due to all secrets originating from a time before Shannon was even born.

At the end of 3rd episode everyone who was close to the family who had died was in golden land, but where was Asumu? Due to everything listed above and this, I have a good idea who the author is. Asumu didn’t appear in the golden land with everyone else because she was not dead.

If Asumu is Hachijou why didn’t Ange recognize her? It was revealed that Ange had never seen a single photo of Asumu. All of the pictures of her were removed from Rudolf’s home and sent to her parent’s home [44].

Also, the condescending tone [45] that Hachijou uses when speaking to Kyrie’s child is another clue.

If the 07151129 theory is true then this it is another clue. However, it is a very difficult one to find in this story.

Bernkastel wrote a letter to someone who was suffering from an illness. This letter was released as an extra TIP by Ryukishi during the time of the question arc episodes. Due to Bernkastel’s familiarity with Featherine from the past and the described illness [46] it’s clear that Bernkastel was writing to her in the extra TIP. Ryukishi had planned this character from the beginning.

And Bernkastel’s first words to her were very interesting [47]. “So, you’ve come back to life...”

Ryukishi said he's going for a bittersweet ending, my thoughts referring to Battler and Beatrice, but who knows? I'm hoping that in the end everyone or almost everyone is left alive, though.
Or at least my favorite characters 8D /mauled
but uh yeah. If the true mastermind gets a rather sad ending for them, I won't mind, though. Like in Higurashi the true culprit got their sad end, I think the culprit in Umineko should, as well.

And even though the whole murder incident stopped on Rokkenjima, I believe it always went on until the last survivor, Eva, was dead. She was tormented for the rest of her life with a great deal of pain and guilt and getting attacked by the media and pressured. Even though she wasn't killed on the island, she slowly was getting killed inside. So I don't believe it ended just on the island and she died of natural cause or old age.

Ryukishi said he's going for a bittersweet ending, my thoughts referring to Battler and Beatrice, but who knows? I'm hoping that in the end everyone or almost everyone is left alive, though.
Or at least my favorite characters 8D /mauled
but uh yeah. If the true mastermind gets a rather sad ending for them, I won't mind, though. Like in Higurashi the true culprit got their sad end, I think the culprit in Umineko should, as well.

And even though the whole murder incident stopped on Rokkenjima, I believe it always went on until the last survivor, Eva, was dead. She was tormented for the rest of her life with a great deal of pain and guilt and getting attacked by the media and pressured. Even though she wasn't killed on the island, she slowly was getting killed inside. So I don't believe it ended just on the island and she died of natural cause or old age.

Yeah, I've always thought that it'd be bittersweet in that "Beatrice" is really only somebody's alternate personality and not a real person, and while most of the rest of the cast will probably get a happy ending/resolve their family issues Battler's going to have to say goodbye . (or somebody gets left in the cold and people get mad)

The actual quote was something like "it won't necessarily be a happy ending where everyone survives", but it was said before EP4. Hence I'm filing that as a troll, at least for now .

Either that or they all die but live on happy in the Golden Land, but seeing how this was EP6's "ending" I don't think that's the case anymore.

But I'll wait and see what actually happens, because it's funner that way .

2) The cigarette bud that Kyrie had in her pocket, along with the boat ticket, an anime only hint but still telling. If she went on the ferry then why did she have that ticket with her?

Ever since I first read the scene, I believed its main purpose was to reveal Kyrie as the culprit.

Her sudden change of heart about abandoning the guesthouse at the exact same time Eva-Beatrice commences her activities can’t be a coincidence, it has to signify something (maybe the fact that the real Kyrie has been replaced by Kasumi/Asumu around that time, who until then were in hiding somewhere on the island?).

And now that scene, when R07 has gone to all the trouble showing us the contents of Kyrie’s (?) pockets. There has to be a major clue regarding Kyrie somewhere in those things she had on her if she’s indeed the culprit. The ticket stub would obviously be one, but since it’s the anime only thing, I guess it was added on R07 request to further emphasize some other, not so obvious SN-only hint. I’m talking about a cigarette butt they found. What if instead of drawing suspicion to Eva its actual purpose was to implicate Kyrie? The only thing I could come up with is the following: the butt actually belonged not to Hideyoshi, but to the person being examined, and since Kyrie didn’t smoke it follows that person was not Kyrie.

I don't think the scene were you see Kyrie telling Rudolf that she wanted to go to the mansion was false. In other words that really was her idea.

If she was the culprit then that could have been her way to isolate two victims to kill and have at the same time a chance to feign her own death. However she still died in the end unless there's some dirty trick in the reds.

But what kind of explanation Kyrie gave to Rudolf in order to convince him that they had to go to the mansion? It's really hard to imagine... certainly it wasn't for the food, and I doubt it was to question Hideyoshi either...

Maybe she (lied to him that) has solved the epitaph and it had something to do with the mansion?

But we are getting off topic here. I still ask you to scrutinize the Kyrie stripsearch scene.
I regard it as very important plotwise, regardless of the fact that Kyrie may or may not be the ultimate mastermind.

Just think about it for a second. What obvious purpose has that scene to serve? Don't tell me it's to further frame Eva, since that has already been established both before and after that scene (and far more effectively, when she kills Battler, for instance). So there has to be another reason for that scene and it has to do with the contents of Kyrie's pockets.

Those contents definitely tell us something:

1) Kyrie is the culprit; or
2) Eva is not the culprit; or
3) Kyrie was being coerced by someone which explains her strange behaviour prior to her "death"; or
4) something else.

But whatever it is, I'm betting it's clearly there in the things they examined. Otherwise, the scene serves no purpose.

"Laid on the floor, ......was a handkerchief, tissue, a key to her house, the stub of a boat ticket, a lighter, a cigarette butt, and a single hundred yen coin..."

there doesn't seem to be anything suspicious apart from the cigarette butt and the boat ticket.

Well I might say that it is unusual that she has the key to her house with herself but she doesn't have any document nor money (except the coin). If it wasn't for the key to her house I'd think she just left the stuff she didn't need right there in Rokkenjima in her room, but then why she kept the key of her house? But I think I can pass on that...

The boat ticket is strange because I don't think she needed one to board Captain Kawabata's boat, and no other travel by sea has been mentioned. However why she would still have that boat ticket? After all she must have tossed away the airplane ticket.

Anyway it is still possible that the important factor here is the cigarette butt although for different reasons than what Battler thought.

"Laid on the floor, ......was a handkerchief, tissue, a key to her house, the stub of a boat ticket, a lighter, a cigarette butt, and a single hundred yen coin..."

The coin is also suspicious, if one consider how much a penny like that could be useful, especially on Rokkenjima.

What can a coin be useful except in payment? Maybe it was to make noise and attract people?

A stub of a boat ticket? I remember that in EP1 the adults said that they used to take boat to come to Niijima before they took the plane. Certainly the boat service was still functional. Certainly one can purchase a boat ticket on site but to buy a plane ticket, one has to leave records at the airline company.

I thought Ssol's explanation for those twilights, which was really interesting because it has Kyrie questioning both Rudolf and Hideyoshi, which seems like something she would do.

As for why she decided to go back to the mansion I don't know, but I have a couple of theories.

1. Kyrie left something in the mansion that was more important than food. Possibly something to help her fake her own death or a piece of evidence that would show that she had murdered someone.

2. The three decided to look for Kinzo inside the mansion. Maybe Kyrie wanted to confirm he was alive.

3. Just murder

We could assume that the real explanation for why they went into the mansion wasn't food, but something trivial and that the food was a pretense to go there. For example Kyrie could explain to Rudolf that she left her makeup in the mansion, and that it was a trivial thing ,but that she would feel better with it. Rudolf , as planned, being the ladies man that he is, acted brave and offered to go and get it for her. Kyrie negates the idea, but Rudolf insists. Kyrie then told him that they'd need an excuse to go into the mansion so she suggest on getting food. They get Hideyoshi to go with them and help them to get "food" than such and such happens.

In this theory she does indeed suggest to get food, but the food is an excuse for another motive. And only Hideyoshi doesn't know that they're not really getting food.

That Kyrie used to go to Rokkenjima in secret. But there are two strange facts about this:

First: there are no public boats that go to Rokkenjima so Kyrie needed a personal boat or some trusted person to ferry her there, at which point wouldn't be better to have one to bring her there directly from Tokyo? While it isn't as bad as an airplane it is still risky to take a ferry where she might have been seen by many witnesses

Second: she certainly didn't take any boat in October5 nor October4 so why did she still have that boat ticket with her? That's kinda careless considering you are assuming she took precautions so no one would suspect she went to Rokkenjima outside of Family meetings.

There are many ways to get around the first twilights in episode 1 and 2.

Given that my main objection to Kyrietrice is that exact thing, what are those ways? Battler clearly saw the body. You can't fake a death like that, and there were no body doubles as stated by the red. And Episode 2 is even worse for her. So how do you get around that?

That Kyrie used to go to Rokkenjima in secret. But there are two strange facts about this:

First: there are no public boats that go to Rokkenjima so Kyrie needed a personal boat or some trusted person to ferry her there, at which point wouldn't be better to have one to bring her there directly from Tokyo? While it isn't as bad as an airplane it is still risky to take a ferry where she might have been seen by many witnesses

Second: she certainly didn't take any boat in October5 nor October4 so why did she still have that boat ticket with her? That's kinda careless considering you are assuming she took precautions so no one would suspect she went to Rokkenjima outside of Family meetings.

No, I did not say Kyrie went to Rokkenjima in secret.

I meant she got to Niijima by boat to make sure nobody knowed about this.

Something happened in Niijima one day before 4 Oct, 1986, I guess.

Question is why she didn't throw away the boat ticket as it is useless, no matter she was the big bad or not.

The ending scroll to Episode 1 mentions "the children were thought to have survived to the end". How would anybody get that idea? And if the bomb / boiler explosion / landslide / volcano hypothesis is correct, why would anybody suspect that the deaths weren't all at once?

The ending scroll to Episode 1 mentions "the children were thought to have survived to the end". How would anybody get that idea? And if the bomb / boiler explosion / landslide / volcano hypothesis is correct, why would anybody suspect that the deaths weren't all at once?