SPIN FACTOR® - The HSX Blog

Whisper Numbers: Paranormal Activity starts off 2014

After the glut of holiday film releases to close out the year 2013, Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones [OXNRD] will be the only new wide release to open 2014. Paramount spins off their R-rated found-footage horror franchise to target Hispanic moviegoers, a segment that traditionally flocks to supernatural stories with religious undertones. Horror films have done well in the first weekend of January during the past 2 years. Texas Chainsaw 3D earned $21.7 million last year while The Devil Inside surprised with $33.7 million in 2012. Horror fans have not had a treat since Carrie debuted before Halloween. However, the drop-off from Paranormal Activity 3’s $52.6 million to Paranormal Activity 4’s $29.0 million showed serious signs of franchise fatigue. Showing in 2867 theaters, Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones could scare up $19 million.

Even after six weeks, Frozen [FROZE.BW] continues to outperform newer arrivals. After increasing 45% last weekend, the animated musical is likely to drop 45% to $16 million now that kids are back in school. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug [HOBT2] has also held strong and looks to add $15 million in its fourth weekend.

Fourth place could be a three-way battle between Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues [ANCH2], American Hustle [AMBUL] and The Wolf of Wall Street [TWOWS], all expected around $10 million.