Weekend Box Office: Freddy Tears Into the Competition

It's gotten so that there are very specific expectations of high-profile horror franchise "reboots," and Freddy Krueger's performance this weekend is almost precisely in line with them: a big Friday opening, followed by a big Friday-to-Saturday drop (one of the biggest ever in this case, at around 33%), and a final weekend number somewhere between $25 million (Halloween) and $40 million (Friday the 13th). A Nightmare on Elm St.grossed $32 million for an easy weekend win. The pattern dictates a large drop next weekend, which may be compounded or alleviated by the arrival of Iron Man 2, depending on the impact of spillover traffic from sell-outs. Regardless, the modestly budgeted film has already done precisely what the Platinum Dunes horror remake business model requires -- mission accomplished.

The only other weekend debut was Summit's Furry Vengeance, which didn't work out, ending up with $6.5 million in 3,000 theaters. It's worth noting that Summit has only ever opened three films over $20 million -- the Twilights and Knowing. It'll try again with Letters to Juliet in two weeks.

Without much more to report (How to Train Your Dragon is sneaking up on $200 million; Kick-Ass has pretty much fizzled out), I turn to idle speculation about Iron Man 2's opening weekend number. The first began its long and successful run with $99 million on essentially the same weekend two years ago; the sequel will open on as many theaters (roughly 4,000) with virtually no competition (its predecessor faced off against Made of Honor). Given the high regard for the first film, I expect an uptick; something to the tune of an extra $20 million seems reasonable. What do you think?