Colin Kaepernick’s pre-playoff test run: Four games in, then New England tonight and Seattle next week

* 2:17 p.m. ET update: It’s cold and windy and it wasn’t fun to walk around Boston–even the 30 seconds it took to walk to Legal Seafoods from the hotel–just now through the driving sleet. Don’t know if it’ll snow during the game tonight, but weather will definitely be an issue.

He couldn’t know beforehand that Alex Smith was going to suffer a concussion when he did, and Harbaugh couldn’t have planned for Colin Kaepernick to take over the 49ers’ permanent QB job at that point last month.

Smith hurt, Kaepernick in, Kaepernick explodes vs. the Bears on Monday Night Football, Harbaugh gives the job to Kaepernick. You can look at it and quite logically judge that this all happened sort of randomly. (Even if we can figure that Harbaugh and GM Trent Baalke were planning for Kaepnerick to take the job in 2013.)

Except… I think the timing also set up perfectly for Harbaugh to make a quicker call on Kaepernick.

I think if Smith had suffered the concussion a week or two later there might not have been enough time to fully immerse Kaepernick into the position before tonight’s playoff pre-cursor vs. the Patriots.

But Smith got hurt when he did and I think Harbaugh saw immediately last month: There’s enough time, let’s do it.

At the moment of Smith’s injury, Harbaugh looked at the upcoming schedule and saw…

Immediately after the landmark Chicago game, the 49ers had back-to-back road games against New Orleans and St. Louis (good tests for Kaepernick vs. crowd noise in domes) and then a home game vs. Miami (see what he’s like back on comfortable turf).

Then the big two, starting tonight in Foxboro: At New England (needs to go score for score with Tom Brady, in cold weather), then at Seattle (in the toughest crowd conditions the 49ers face, also probably in weather, against the 49ers’ bitterest division rivals).

Basically, I think Harbaugh saw a chance to give Kaepernick a solid four-game run-up to this point (2 at home, 2 on the road), just enough for Harbaugh and Greg Roman to feel comfortable that they’re not recklessly throwing Kaepernick out there without seasoning.

Tonight, Kaepernick will have to counter Bill Belichick’s defensive schemes. Great test, obviously. As true a pre-playoff challenge as you can get.

The 49ers may or may not need Kaepernick to go for 350 pass yards, 60 rushing yards and 4 TDs to match whatever Brady’s doing… but no matter what, Kaepnerick can’t go turnover-happy, either.

–By the way, I think Kaepernick will remain the 49ers’ starter even if he has a bad game tonight.

–OK, maybe if he has a HORRIBLE game (more than 2 turnovers, less than 60% completion rate, no big runs) maybe there’s a chance Harbaugh goes wish-washy with the QB and considers going back to Smith. But I just don’t see him copying the late-2010 Singletary QB in-out plan here.

–Kaepernick’s the guy; that’s what this has been all about.

And next week–in the even bigger game–Kaepernick has to keep things calm in that Seattle cacophony, make the right reads, and figure out how to do what Smith did last year: Win in Seattle.

The 49ers’ schedule set up for this. Harbaugh didn’t know Smith would get hurt, but he did; and Harbaugh had his Kaepernick plan ready to go, instantly, all focused on the playoffs, and the 7 games leading up to them.

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This game should be on the defense and the 49er running game not Kaepernick. Belichick has everyone fooled but me. He changes up his fronts on defense on every down but he is always playing the pass. He has everyone including Kawakami thinking they have to get in a shoot out with Brady. They don’t, the teams that beat the Pats do it on the ground with play action passe in the short range. Keep Brady on the bench and on his back. That is the key to beating the Pats.

Said the same thing to my buddy just yesterday. Have you been listening to my thoughts again, Tim???

Mike B.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the 49ers lone tonight in part because of a mistake or two by Kaepernick, mistakes that Smith wouldn’t make. Hope I’m wrong.

Michael

It’s perfect either way- two subpar performances from Kap and Smith has the final regular season game to prep for the postseason. I don’t expect that but those thinking that Jimbo wouldn’t go back to Smith are wrongo. The switch was about more than the future, that’s probably Kap regardless. But it was just as much about this year’s postseason and if Colin comes up short against two playoff level teams, he’ll be holding the clipboard.

Lance Newberry

This has all been an extended audition, and it will continue through the next two games.

Harbaugh/Roman know exactly what they have in Smith; they needed to KNOW what they have in Kaepernick.

If he doesn’t play well tonight AND next Sunday Alex will be back in there for Arizona and whatever playoff game/s they get to.

I think they believe (as do I) that they can afford to run this audition because they believe that the team chemistry is strong and that if they have to put Smith back in there he won’t miss a beat and will be the same player he has been the past two years, if not a little better now with the big chip they’ve put on his shoulder.

And that’s not a bad thing.

It’s been a fun season so far, and it’s gonna’ be a fun two weeks watching this final run unfold, and no matter what happens after that it is going to keep being fun for me.

Because win or lose it’s ALL so much better than it was the past 10+ years before Harbaugh came to the 49ers.

GO NINERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Matthew

Lance, great stuff on here from you…well put and very on point.

Tonight should be very entertaining…

TooFunny

Want the Niners to succeed and not sold on the Kap solution this year – Smith could get it done & “earned” the right.

Tim, i agree with the initial read – that when Alex went down, it gave Harbaugh a slightly less risky opportunity to install/test out Kaep than if he had such an injury later – but the rest of your thesis holds only if Kaep had been successful enough in the interim. If he had gone 0-2 and not looked competent as a starter, Harbaugh would probably have to go back to Alex by now. so your thesis only holds in a conditional sense. Yes, opportunity, and then on the condition of success leading to now. so, the logic really boils down to: chance to replace Alex; continue if you have success. these next 2 games are only meaningful because kaep played well enough to get here.

Big Suede

The key to this game tonight is going to be the niners run game. If the weather is as bad as it sounds- the deep throws will not be accurate at all- that will be a big plus for the niners.

One of the goals for tonight is for Kaepernick to run over 100 yards. With Smith as a backup- the niners can afford to have kaep run it for 10-15 carries- and that will really weaken the defense having to worry about the QB runs.

sliver1935

Turned out to be a sensational game. Of course Brady scared the puss out of me in the 2nd half. But, except for those confounding “slippery hands” fumbles, Kaepernick looked terrific. Looking forward to showdown with Seattle next week. Go Niners!

Turin

Kind of off-topic, but Legal Seafood is not very good. There are way better places to eat in Boston.