000
FXUS65 KPUB 132212
AFDPUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
412 PM MDT Tue Mar 13 2018
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 313 PM MDT Tue Mar 13 2018
Cooler day across the area with light winds and higher humidity
readings behind yesterday`s cold front. Models continue to insist
on some isolated convective showers initiating over the mountains
this afternoon and evening with latest NAM12 run looking overdone
with the amount and extent of precipitation. Seeing some CU
buildups over the mountains in satvis pics...but depth of moisture
is pretty shallow in model soundings...confined to between 650 and
550 MB depending on the model. Will maintain some low end isolatedpops across the mountains but overall any snowfall should be spotty
and light. Activity should diminish after sundown with loss of
heating. Tonight should be a milder night going into Wednesday as
temperature warm aloft.
With ridge axis shifting over the area on Wednesday this should help
keep winds relatively light once again. Southeast corner of the
state will see some afternoon breezes as southerly winds pick up
ahead of the deepeninglee side surface trof. Overall though wind
speeds stay below critical fire weather thresholds even though RHs
may approach the critical 15 percent mark. Temperatures should
return to the 70s across the plains...with 50s and lower 60s for the
valleys...and 30s and 40s for the higher mountains. -KT
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 313 PM MDT Tue Mar 13 2018
...Mountain Snow Thursday, Fire Weather Concerns Remain Through
the Weekend...
Wednesday night - Thursday... Southwest flow is forecast to
increase over Colorado as a shortwavetrough advances
east/northeast through the southwest US. Precip will increase
across the continental divide throughout the day, becoming most
intense and widespread Thursday evening, and tapering off into
early Friday morning. The mountains of the continental divide
should see 3-7 inches of total accumulation, with the southwest
mountains likely receiving slightly more than the central
mountains. The eastern mountains are forecast to receive about a
couple of inches. Steep lapse rates will allow for a couple
rumbles of thunder in the mountains. During the day across the
plains, RH values will fall below 15%, and southwest winds will
increase to 15-25 mph gusting to 35 mph. Those weather conditions
combined with our continued lack of precip mean another day of
high fire danger. Therefore, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued
for the southeast plains south of Highway 50. Burning is strongly
discouraged. High temperatures will rise into the upper 70s and
low 80s across the eastern plains. A very isolated, high based
shower with limited thunder activity is possible across the
plains.
Thursday night - Friday night...As the shortwave continues east
across Colorado Thursday evening, surface low pressure will deepen
along the east-central Colorado/Kansas border. Isolated to
scattered rain/snow showers are possible across the plains on the
western part of the low, primarily north of highway 50, late
Thursday night into early Friday morning. Winds will shift to a
northwesterly direction and eventually northerly and remain gusty
on Friday. RH values again below 15% combined with the gusty
winds will likely lead to another day of critical fire weather
conditions. Temperatures across the plains will be cooler with
highs in the mid 60s on Friday. Height rises behind the system
Friday night keeps the region dry.
Saturday - Tuesday...Another shortwave is forecast to swing
toward Colorado from the west on Saturday, increasing southwest
flow over the state. This system will take a more northerly track,
and give the continental divide a another shot of snow Saturday
night into Sunday. Across the plains, continued breezy conditions
with low RH values will likely lead to elevated-to-critical fire
weather conditions Saturday and Sunday. Models indicate a ridge
building over the state Monday into Tuesday with embedded minor
disturbances, leading to mostly dry weather. High fire danger may
persist into the early week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 313 PM MDT Tue Mar 13 2018
VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours at the TAF sites with
generally light diurnally driven winds under 15 kts.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
evening for COZ228>230-232-233-235>237.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...LINE
AVIATION...KT