Tuesday Bolts – 3.24.09

Chad Ford has a list of all the players he anticipates going pro, the 50/50 guys and the unlikelies: “Last year at this time, Derrick Rose said he’d definitely be returning to Memphis. He’s now finishing his rookie season with the Chicago Bulls. The general rule is that if a player is projected as a lottery pick, his chances of declaring for the draft are very high. Of course, nothing is a given. Most recently, Blake Griffin decided to stay in school last year even though he was projected as a top-three pick in the 2008 draft. This year could see similar decisions. The draft class is weak, and a number of the top prospects aren’t ready for the NBA and really could use another year of college basketball. College underclassmen and international players who will be 22 years old or younger at the end of this year have until April 26 to declare themselves eligible for the NBA draft. Last year, 69 underclassmen and 22 international players initially declared for the draft. But by the time of the draft in June, most of the players had withdrawn. In the end, 38 underclassmen and five international players kept their names in the draft.”

And he’s also got some comments about who’s hot in the tourney and who’s not: “Not: Once again, Thabeet is proving that just because you’re 7-foot-3 and taller than anyone else in college basketball doesn’t mean you’ll be making a huge impact on the floor. UConn largely ignored him on offense during its rout of Texas A&M on Saturday. Against Texas A&M’s strong front line, Thabeet took two shots in the game, grabbed six boards and watched Jeff Adrien do all the work down low. That’s not the type of performance you really want to see in the tournament from a possible top-10 pick.”

Bill Simmons writes about the statistical revolution and it’s deficiencies: “The Spurs won their past two titles by surrounding a Tim Duncan-Manu Ginobili-Tony Parker nucleus with role players who didn’t care about numbers, rarely made mistakes and wouldn’t dare challenge the pecking order. Yes, Carmelo Anthony was a significantly better basketball player than Bruce Bowen between 2005 and 2007; Bowen was a better fit for the Spurs. That team didn’t need another scorer. It needed a top-notch defender and agitator who knew his place. Our current batch of public numbers can’t measure Bowen’s impact in that role. Maybe those numbers exist somewhere, but who knows?”

The LA Times previewing tonight’s game: “Oklahoma City has actually been playing better than its 20-50 record indicates, winning seven of the last 12 games, many of them without leading scorer Kevin Durant, who recently returned from an ankle injury. After the Thunder’s 97-90 victory against Minnesota on Sunday, Coach Scott Brooks told reporters that former UCLA guard Russell Westbrook was “as good as any rookie in the league right now.” Westbrook is averaging 15.8 points, five assists and 4.8 rebounds for the Thunder. Second-year forwards Durant and Jeff Green are averaging 26 points and 17.1 points, respectively. “They’re a team that has a great future ahead of them,” Jackson said. “They lose a lot of their games close.”

Paul Forrester of Sports Illustrated writes about how it is difficult to project how a college player will do in the NBA: “Defense. “If you don’t give an effort at the top college level, it’s probably not going to transfer to our league,” the scout said. “A lot of college basketball fans who don’t watch the NBA on a regular basis have no idea how big our players are and how skilled they are. “So I look for how they guard really good players, because, regardless of the system, effort should always be there. I watched someone at the Philly regional [of this year’s tournament], and he kept turning his head on defense and guys went by him. A 12-year-old knows that if the ball is passed away from your man, you take a step to the ball. If you’re going to turn your head on defense, if you’re not willing to work and hustle, that’s more than effort — that’s concentration. Maybe you can work on that, but we don’t have a lot of patience. That you’re young can be an excuse for a little while, but the money is too great, the stakes are too high to give someone a huge window.”

And rookie rankings: “It may have taken Westbrook a little bit longer to find his stride as a pro, but he seems to have taken O.J. Mayo’s spot as the league’s second-best rookie. As far as numbers are concerned he’s not particularly consistent but he does seem to dominate in at least one major category every night. If it’s not points, it’s assists. If it’s not assists, it’s rebounds. As soon as he figures out how to put that all together on a night-in, night-out basis, he’s going to be a force-if he’s not a force already.”

Thabo second best on/off team defensive rating (to Krstic by a samll bit) but second worst team offensive rating on/off among top 8 guys (to Watson).On this comparison Thabo has Weaver by about a point on defense but Weaver's lead for team offensive on /off is 7. There is a reason Chicago eventually moved away from Thabo. No 3 pt game and light passing. this team is so short on both was he really the best fit? Maybe for a stopper role. Another guy for Presti's bench mob. Including starters.

Counterpart PER at SG - where they probably need to play most- Weaver is by far the best. The other 2 sure look like SFs on defense. But Gelly is the better SG on offense while the other 2 do better at SF. So Thabo is the least good fit at SG by the counterpart numbers.

Gelly's injury was a factor but not being Presti's personal pick seems like it did too. They'll all be Presti's picks pretty soon. Collison the only possible exception but I doubt he finishes out his contract with the team.

I am very happy for Gelly. Two years ago they sent him down to the Idaho Stampede and he ripped it up. 18 points and 4.5 boards. He clearly is an NBA player. I liked him a lot. I am not sure he is better than Thabo though. Very similar. But Thabo is really a warrior on defense, and Gelly is more like Weaver on defense.

Chad Ford is typically about the worst source of "inside" information in the NBA. It's no better than talking to your neighbor over the fence. He really is off the wall a lot.

I really hope we don't draft Thabeet, he doesn't look anywhere close to NBA ready to me. With the exception of Griffin and Rubio is there a player in the top 10 of this draft who would be highly likely to be a key piece for us? Would Hardin have been a top 10 pick last year? Would you trade Thabo for Hardin? I don't think I would. The more I look at the available players, the more I think that unless we can get Griffin or Rubio, our best option will be to package the pick with some of our expiring contracts in a trade. With the state of the economy and so many teams struggling financially, it could be very interesting what opportunities might present themself. If we could get Chandler for expiring contracts, who could we get if we include a top 5-10 pick? Of course, Presti will probably surprise everyone with who he picks and that guy will turn out to be the steal of the draft, but at this point, I'm having a hard time seeing who that might be.

Exactly. I'm sorry that every other NBA city sits on their hands for the first three quarters and cheers for the last five minutes of a game. We kind of get in to it throughout. Maybe that's why we've gained a reputation as some of the best fans in the league...

Oklahoma City's home crowds have earned opponents' praise because of their volume and energy, though Jackson thought the noise tended to peter out as the game progressed.

"They haven't quite figured out the NBA game, the length of it," Jackson said. "They get all fired up in the beginning, and it's a marathon. It's 48 minutes of basketball. It's not like college, where you can come out and get a 10-point lead or 15-point lead and you can win the game."

Thanks Phil. I promise I'll try to remember that the NBA game is 4 quarters, not 2 halves. In your astute observations of our intelligence, I would just like to point out that the only trip you made to OKC this year, you won 107 to 93. Maybe our volume and energy "petered out" more because of the score spread than our bewilderment at this newfangled 4th quarter thing-a-ma-jig we can't comprehend.