Although Lee remains a powerful hurricane, the cloud patternappears to be gradually losing some organization. The eye hasbecome ragged at times, and the convective pattern is now moreasymmetric with convection becoming limited over the northwesternquadrant. The initial wind speed is held at 95 kt, based on anaverage of the Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB/SAB and CIMSS at theUniversity of Wisconsin, but this could be a little generous.

Lee is headed toward an environment of strong wind shear and coolerwaters. These more hostile conditions should cause the system tosteadily weaken during the next couple of days, and Lee will likelyfall below hurricane strength in 36 to 48 hours. The system isexpected to lose its tropical characteristics in a little more than2 days when it will be over SSTs below 20 deg C and in anenvironment of about 30 kt of westerly shear. Dissipation is nowpredicted to occur by day 3, in agreement with the latest runs ofthe GFS and ECMWF models. The NHC intensity forecast is an updateof the previous one, and it remains in good agreement with the ICONand HCCA consensus aids.

Lee has turned to the north at 8 kt on the western side of amid-level ridge. The hurricane is forecast to begin acceleratingto the northeast later today when it becomes embedded in fastmid-latitude flow, and it should continue moving in that directionuntil it dissipates. The models are tightly clustered, and onlyminor changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast.

That was quite the run from a joke storm to regenesis and becoming another major hurricane to add to the September to Remember. But unlike some of your brothers and sisters, at least you were harmless.