Weather forecast may predict cold outbreaks

NEW YORK (Reuters Health) - Weather forecasts could one day be used to predict epidemics of a very common and contagious virus called respiratory syncytial virus, or RSV.

Researchers from Germany found that hospital admissions for children with RSV showed predictable cold-weather peaks.

Most children get RSV by the time they are two years old. It is the leading cause of hospital admissions in young children, causing breathlessness and wheezing and in some cases pneumonia.

The researchers also found that hospitalizations for other common respiratory viruses (influenza A and adenovirus) also peaked with cold temperatures.

With the right systems for monitoring acute respiratory infections, it could be possible to predict epidemics of RSV and possibly other viruses based on weather forecasts, according to Dr. Jean-Baptist du Priel of Johannes-Gutenberg-Universitaet in Mainz, Germany and colleagues.

This could then make it possible to immunize at-risk children before a predicted outbreak.

The researchers tested samples from 3,044 children hospitalized for acute respiratory infections in Mainz from 2001 to 2006, and then investigated whether patterns of hospitalization for infectious with various pathogens could be correlated with weather data.

While influenza A, RSV, and adenovirus infections were linked with temperature, infections with the common cold virus (rhinovirus) were associated with relative humidity, the researchers found.

They developed a computer model designed to predict RSV hospitalizations based on the meteorological information, as well as the virus's seasonal patterns, and found that hospitalizations could indeed have been predicted based on this information.

RSV infections can be particularly dangerous for infants, and predicting outbreaks could make it possible to immunize them with antibodies against the virus, "an effective, albeit expensive" preventive measure, du Priel and colleagues say.

At present, there is no vaccine available to protect children from RSV infections.