News for social, fiscal & national security conservatives who believe in God, family & the USA. Upholding the rights granted by God & guaranteed by the U.S. Constitution, traditional family values, "republican" principles / ideals, transparent & limited "smaller" government, free markets, lower taxes, due process of law, liberty & individual freedom. All content approval rests with the ARRA News Service Editor. Opinions are those of the authors. While varied positions are reported, beliefs & principles remain fixed. No revenue is generated for this site - no paid ads accepted - no payments for articles. Fair Use doctrine is posted & used.Editor/Founder: Bill Smith, Ph.D. [aka: OzarkGuru & 2010 AFP National Blogger of the Year] Follow @arraContact: editor@arranewsservice.com (Pub. Since July, 2006)Home Page

One of the penalties for refusing to participate in politics
is that you end up being governed by your inferiors. -- Plato
(429-347 BC)

Thursday, February 11, 2016

Lessons from New Hampshire

by Newt Gingrich: The New Hampshire primary gave us a lot to think about in both parties. It clarified the way forward for Republicans while raising serious challenges for Hillary in particular and Democrats in general.

First, Donald Trump won decisively with every group of Republican primary voters. Today, he is the frontrunner and the most likely to be nominated. Those waiting for him to implode or fade away need to recognize that he is real. He may in the end be beaten for the nomination, but he is not going to self-destruct.

Trump is also becoming a little more sober and a little more presidential in his style as the reality of his frontrunner status sinks in for him.

Second, Ohio Governor John Kasich's strategy of remaining positive and campaigning hard in New Hampshire worked. That strategy meant he endured a long stretch of being ignored and minimized. It turned out that it was a long stretch of increasingly cold weather but warmer and warmer voters.

It is not clear how Governor Kasich will translate this achievement into additional victories, but his performance Tuesday night certainly gives him the chance to do so.

Third, in the Democratic primary, Senator Bernie Sanders won a huge victory and Hillary Clinton suffered a crushing defeat. She lost virtually every group of voters in her party, and in the end she lost the primary by 21 points. It is clear that Secretary Clinton has been overestimated just as much as Senator Sanders has been underestimated.

In addition, the depth of the Democrats’ problems only becomes clear when you look beyond the headlines, to the details of the results.

In New Hampshire, there were roughly 18,000 fewer votes cast than in 2008. (The New Hampshire Democratic primary vote dropped from 285,000 in 2008 to 247,000 this year.) This follows on an even bigger decline in turnout in Iowa.

It is clear that Sanders is mobilizing socialists, the hard left and the young. It is also clear that moderates and independents are beginning to leave the Democratic Party or stay home.

Sanders’s mobilization of the left is amazing. He has raised more than $5 million since the polls closed in New Hampshire. He has more donors than Barack Obama had as a candidate (an astonishing achievement). As he likes to repeat, the average donation to his campaign is $27, so he can go back again and again with enormous efficiency.

In all likelihood, Sanders will soon begin outspending Clinton.

In addition, there is a growing cadre of younger black activists who are endorsing Senator Sanders over Hillary. The famed Clinton firewall of African American voters is starting to melt into support for Sanders.

The New Hampshire vote made clear Clinton’s crushing liabilities. Among those who said they value honesty, she lost 91-3. That number is almost unfathomably bad. Among younger voters, she lost five to one. Remarkably, that was an improvement over her vote in Iowa, where she lost six to one (84-14).

Are Democrats really going to nominate the candidate of the old and the dishonest?

Bernie Sanders could become the new George McGovern--a brilliant mobilizer of a militant minority who gets repudiated by the larger world of a general election.

Fourth, Cruz is in excellent position to be Trump’s major competitor. Cruz has the organization, the fundraising, the ideological appeal and the name recognition to be a serious competitor in the states that will vote in the next six weeks.

In fact, the Republican race is almost certainly going to evolve into a contest between Trump, Cruz, and a third alternative. The question is whether that alternative is Kasich, Rubio or Bush.

Fifth, Senator Rubio suffered from his Saturday debate bruising by Governor Christie. He has to turn it around in the next debate.

Sixth, South Carolina should be a good state for Jeb Bush. His brother is extraordinarily popular among South Carolina Republicans. If he can't break through there, there may be no place for him to break out.
----------------------Newt Gingrich is a former Georgia Congressman and Speaker of the U.S. House. He co-authored and was the chief architect of the "Contract with America" and a major leader in the Republican victory in the 1994 congressional elections. He is noted speaker and writer. The above commentary was shared via Gingrich Productions. Tags:Newt Gingrich, lessons, New Hampshire, primaryTo share or post to your site, click on "Post Link". Please mention / link to the ARRA News Service. and "Like" Facebook Page - Thanks!

Comments by contributing authors or other sources do not necessarily reflect the position the editor, other contributing authors, sources, readers, or commenters. No contributors, or editors are paid for articles, images, cartoons, etc. While having reported on and promoting the beliefs associated with the ARRA, this blog/site is not controlled by nor funded by the ARRA. This site/blog does not advertise for money or services nor does it solicit funding for its support.

Fair Use: This site/blog may contain copyrighted material the use of which has not been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Such material is made available to advance understanding of political, human rights, economic, democracy, and social justice issues, etc. This constitutes a 'fair use' of such copyrighted material as provided for in section Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107 of the US Copyright Law. Per said section, the material on this site/blog is distributed without profit to readers to view for the expressed purpose of viewing the included information for research, educational, or satirical purposes. Any person/entity seeking to use copyrighted material shared on this site/blog for purposes that go beyond "fair use," must obtain permission from the copyright owner.