Pages

Thursday, March 16, 2017

YUGE: Trump Deportations Could Prevent Michigan From Losing An Electoral Vote (And Member Of Congress)

President Trump

By Brandon Hall(Email Him At WestMiPolitics@Gmail.com)Michigan is likely to lose an electoral vote and therefore a member of our Congressional delegation in 2022 during redistricting after the 2020 census. However, President Trump just might have something to say about that...According to MIRS:"It's presumed Michigan will lose a congressional seat. That could change if Michigan's population picks up in a big way or if a significant number of illegal immigrants are removed from the United States, which would significantly lower the population level used to allocate congressional districts."That's what Ed Sarpolus of Target Insyght believes...More of his redistricting analysis from MIRS: "Ed SARPOLUS of Target Insyght, whose drawn political district maps since the 1980s, told MIRS Monday today if the Republicans retain the Senate and the Governor's office in 2018, they will secure two out of the three positions needed to control the pen in 2020, as they did in 2010.

And if that is the case, Sarpolus said the easiest seat for them to eliminate is the southern Oakland County/Macomb County district currently represented by U.S. Rep. Sandy LEVIN(D-Royal Oak). U.S. Rep. Mike BISHOP's 8th Congressional District would wrap around Oakland County and pick up much of Levin's district, including the senior House member's Royal Oak home.

U.S. Rep. Justin AMASH (R-Cascade Twp.) would pick up Ingham County. U.S. Rep. PaulMITCHELL (R-Dryden Twp.) would lose the Thumb to U.S. Rep. Dan KILDEE's (D-Flint Twp.) district while picking up much more of Macomb County.

U.S. Rep. John MOOLENAAR's (R-Midland) district would become geographically gigantic, stretching from the Lake Michigan shoreline to Bay County on the Lake Huron coastline.

U.S. Rep. Debbie DINGELL (D-Dearborn) would pick up much more of Washtenaw County.

Sarpolus was able to preserve the two districts with a majority of a minority population under his potential plan, which takes an otherwise likely federal civil rights lawsuit off the table.

Amash's district goes from a 44 percent Democratic base to a 47 percent Dem base. Moolenaar's district goes from a 45 percent Dem base to a 47 percent Dem base and Mitchell's goes from 46 to 48 percent base.

On the other hand, if Democrats take control of the Governor's office, the Senate or the House, they could negotiate to make the 4th, 3rd or 7th congressional district shaped in a way that give a Democrat a real shot, Sarpolus said."

Sarpolus also says that if Dems win in 2018 and draw the redistricting maps, they may try to create a West Michigan district for a Democrat that would include Grand Rapids and Muskegon...

Stay tuned!

__________________________________________________________________Brandon Hall is a lifelong political nerd from Grand Haven, and is the Managing Editor of West Michigan Politics.