Roundball Mining Company » Harrison Barneshttp://www.roundballminingcompany.com
We'll move the earth for a title!Tue, 03 Mar 2015 18:18:08 +0000en-UShourly1http://wordpress.org/?v=4.1.1Game 6 Preview: Why Harrison Barnes is Hurting the Nuggetshttp://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2013/05/02/game-6-preview-why-harrison-barnes-is-hurting-the-nuggets/
http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2013/05/02/game-6-preview-why-harrison-barnes-is-hurting-the-nuggets/#commentsThu, 02 May 2013 14:00:02 +0000http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/?p=6133As George Karl was forced to make adjustments to counteract Stephen Curry and the Warriors new small ball lineup in the series, two main thoughts started to pop up. First let Curry get his points and limit his teammates and second play a big lineup, like Denver has done all season long with two traditional bigs instead of Wilson Chandler at the power forward spot.

Unfortunately for the Nuggets, despite a victory in Game 5, doing those things may not be possible together. One of the important parts of the Nuggets playing with two bigs is Kenneth Faried playing Harrison Barnes on the defensive end. But Faried has struggled a bit in that role as his unfamiliarity of defensive rotations has allowed Barnes to get a lot of open shot attempts, some he has knocked down and some he hasn’t. The following are four examples of the problems Faried has had, three makes and a miss, from Game 5 when Barnes had 23 points.

Barnes 1st 3:

As you can see on Barnes first made three he caught the ball with Faried way too far away. There is just no way for Faried to get to Barnes in time to make any difference on his shot. Get used to this type of distance, it happens a lot.

Barnes 2nd 3:

This picture comes from before Barnes catches the ball. Before the picture Faried was randomly wandering the lane before jumping over to double Klay Thompson. The problem? As you can see by the arrow Harrison Barnes is nowhere close to Faried. And as the next picture will show that is a pretty big problem.

Barnes caught it and no Nugget was close enough to make a difference. And he drilled it.

Barnes 5th 3:

Another pre-catch photo for this one. Faried is too far into the lane on this play. With most defensive systems it is Lawson’s responsibly to drop down and bump Bogut, slowing him down enough that a big can recover. After all, if Bogut catches on the move where Faried is now is too deep into the lane to help anyway. Faried has his head turned to Barnes, a cardinal sin of defense, and the result after a deflection is the following.

There is the catch. Again no Nugget that close as Barnes enters into his shot. Again he drilled it.

The problems are not just on the makes though. Barnes has missed some open looks, keeping the numbers lower than they could be, which should scare Denver. An example of a Barnes miss that came off a perfectly clean look.

Faried lost Barnes in transition and was dropping too far in the lane to be able to recover once the pass was caught. Barnes missed but it was a wide open miss.

The Nuggets biggest problem is that the matchup is not one they can really exploit because Faried does not possess a post-up game and he has not been all that effective on the offensive glass where he is averaging just two offensive rebounds a game. If the Nuggets are essentially willing to punt on the Curry matchup in order to limit the rest of the Warriors they cannot afford to lose individual matchups. And if Faried continues to be lost defending Barnes they have the potential to not just lose it, but get blown out in it. If Barnes goes for 20 plus points again in Oracle Arena the Nuggets may be in a lot of trouble when the fourth quarter rolls around.

]]>http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2013/05/02/game-6-preview-why-harrison-barnes-is-hurting-the-nuggets/feed/34Quick thoughts before a pivotal Game 4http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2013/04/28/quick-thoughts-before-a-pivotal-game-4/
http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2013/04/28/quick-thoughts-before-a-pivotal-game-4/#commentsSun, 28 Apr 2013 14:00:53 +0000http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/?p=6077After a thrilling loss like that, you need a day just to absorb everything. A 2-1 series hole looms over all the good in game three, where I thought the Nuggets did a better job reacting to small ball than they did in game two. Ty Lawson is turning a pretty good series into a great one but the Golden State Warriors and the emergence of Steph Curry are the definitive stories of this first round matchup. The Warriors weren’t pleased with their game 3 performance and are still in position to take a commanding 3-1 series lead on Sunday, which would effectively make the Nuggets a long shot to get out of the first round… again.

For all the good the Nuggets did in game 3, they still can’t defend the Golden State Warriors, whose offense sure came back down to earth – all the way from 74.3% eFG in game 2 to 57.5% in game 3. That just won’t get it done in the playoffs. Obviously there’s a lot to worry about but as bad as the Nuggets’ issues have been, they still have a chance to essentially hit the reset button on the series with a win tonight.

While we wait to see if the Nuggets can seize that opportunity in a pivotal game four, which is obviously huge, here are some bullet point thoughts on what worked and what didn’t in game three.

One of the biggest stories of the game was Harrison Barnes getting 43 minutes, the most out of any Warrior in game three. Mark Jackson is committed to going small with him but also shifted him to the three at times with Bogut and Landry manning the four and five. That is a slower, less explosive bench unit that Denver should be able to take advantage of. They haven’t done so because the Nuggets can’t guard Barnes. He’s shooting 57.6% as the Warriors’ fourth-leading scorer in the playoffs.

The Nuggets are having Chandler help off Barnes and will stick Andre Miller on him when the benches are in. Denver can live with offense going through Harrison Barnes but they’ve given him way too much confidence early in this series. He cannot be allowed to see the volume of wide open threes he’s getting, which is why his efficiency is through the roof. We’ll have to see if Denver makes an adjustment here. The Nuggets put Chandler on him at the end of the game and Stephen Curry was able to get Barnes switched onto Andre Miller. Barnes drilled the cold-blooded pull-up right over him. The fact Golden State got him the switch and let him attack that matchup at the end of a close playoff game shows the kind of confidence they have in Harrison Barnes right now.

The Nuggets were able to test Kenneth Faried’s stamina and he held up pretty well. He played almost the whole fourth quarter and just having a productive big in the game seemed to reinvigorate the Nuggets’ attack. If Kenneth can give the Nuggets 35 minutes a night for the rest of the series it would be huge.

I was surprised to see Kosta Koufos come in off the bench late in the first quarter. The Nuggets put him on Carl Landry with mixed results, Landry finished with 19 points on 17 shots. He has played limited minutes but Koufos still can’t produce. He’s gone scoreless for two straight games and recorded only one legitimate rebound in that stretch.

I’m not sure what the Nuggets are hoping for out of Koufos. They imagine him as a defensive minded big but he is not exactly physical and doesn’t have a skill set suited to this series. When both teams go small he looks way out of place. There was a particularly bad sequence where Jarrett Jack ran into a soft trap from Koufos on the perimeter and Jack put him on a leash all the way to the rim for a layup. It just seems like Denver should go with one of their more active bigs when they are small.

That being said, if the Nuggets are going to stick with Koufos it makes sense to start him. He and Faried started 80 games together this season and Koufos is going to play limited minutes whether he starts or comes off the bench. He was just pulled out of the starting lineup in game 3 though. Will Karl make another big adjustment or try to make it work with Koufos off the bench? As I said before, going small with Koufos is something Denver did not experiment with during the regular season. They are getting poor results with it now.

Anyone who’s closely followed Nuggets games for the last two years saw that second half collapse being set up in the first. Andre Miller had a rough start, getting to the spots he wanted but missing a couple of easy finishes at the rim. You wonder if Miller does not miss those layups perhaps he doesn’t keep forcing the issue in the second half. Karl knew he didn’t have it going and still put him out there in crunch time hoping for a change. Denver clearly had another option with Corey Brewer but I think we have to accept the fact Karl isn’t willing to consider sitting a cold Andre Miller in the playoffs under any circumstances.

The problem with playing Brewer over Andre Miller is the offense. Miller has been really good in isolation and can create his own shot against the Warriors if need be. Brewer on the other hand is prone to chucking, especially when the Warriors are daring him to shoot this much. Golden State is on top of this matchup, Jarrett Jack in particular. When Jack guards Brewer they are giving him tons of room on the wings and daring him to take that three off the first pass. Denver doesn’t want to get into a quick shooting contest with Golden State, especially not with Brewer. However if you are Corey Brewer, what can you do? If they leave you that open, you have to take the shot.

It may just come down to rebounding. We’ve mentioned it before but Denver was the top offensive rebounding team in the league during the regular season. They have lost the rebounding battle three straight times and the Warriors are beating them at their own game on the crucial offensive boards. If that does not start trending the other way, Denver cannot win this series. They were elite in that area and simply aren’t good enough at everything else to make up for the sudden, shocking deficiency there.

]]>http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2013/04/28/quick-thoughts-before-a-pivotal-game-4/feed/34Adjustments, adversity await Nuggets in Game 3http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2013/04/24/adjustments-adversity-await-nuggets-in-game-3/
http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2013/04/24/adjustments-adversity-await-nuggets-in-game-3/#commentsThu, 25 Apr 2013 05:20:46 +0000http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/?p=6047There are two ways to look at the Nuggets’ current 1-1 series tie to the Golden State Warriors. The cheery narrative gives a convenient regular-season excuse for Denver’s familiar playoff woes – it’s only one game, blowouts happen, and losing home-court advantage while squeeking out a 1-1 split really isn’t that bad.

It’s too bad this isn’t the regular season anymore.

Behind closed doors, both teams are immersed in the hard data that belies the notion that this is a close series. It’s been a one-sided affair by almost any metric you want to use. If we are to judge Denver’s first two playoff games as a whole, then the fair conclusion is that Andre Miller’s heroics are the biggest reason this series is less one-sided that the numbers say it is.

Golden State has dominated the series offensively, relying heavily on a small lineup with Harrison Barnes at the four which Denver has yet to find an answer for. There is an element of overly hot shooting to the Warriors’ recent offense (74.3% eFG in game 2), but that offense has merely maintained the comfortable cushion they’ve had all series. Golden State’s defense and dominance of the paint is what got them there.

For the record, I think there is only so much Karl can do when the effort and individual focus of so many different guys comes into question. Playoff energy and effort should be a given at this point, and there’s no doubt Golden State is winning the battle of wills and are collectively playing with much more confidence than the Nuggets. But the fact they have done so shorthanded and on the road further proves Karl can’t continue to coach this series as he has, leaning on “trust” guys with the faith that home-court mojo and “teamness” will carry-them past mismatch problems on the perimeter.

Clearly we can’t look at the series like that anymore. Golden State has moved into the driver’s seat with home court advantage and the onus is on Denver to react to a small lineup that thoroughly exposed them on both ends. At this point, the margin for error has eroded and coaching adjustments need to become a reality for Denver to gain any momentum in this series.

Two playoff games is a large sample size and Denver is fighting losing battles on too many fronts. Here are a few of the most obvious adjustments we should expect to see addressed in game 3.

Start Faried

It’s already been reported that this one’s a given, and I’m not surprised. If Faried is going to have success in this series, his best shot is against Harrison Barnes in the starting five. He has not come off the bench since early in his rookie season and his energy in the starting lineup has been a huge part of the Nuggets’ identity all season.

If he can’t go he can’t go, but starting should be a given for Kenneth. It’s where he belongs and Denver has always had enough bench depth to protect themselves should he get off to a bad start.

Golden State owns the glass in this series, holding Denver to just a 15.5% offensive rebound rate. Denver led the league in that category with a 31.4% mark in the regular season. I am not thrilled about seeing Faried switched onto any of the four three-point shooters in Golden State’s new starting lineup, but Denver is stuck here. They have no choice but to live with him on Barnes and that means starting.

Don’t Start Andre Miller

This one was truly the hardest to understand. Karl “adjusted” to Mark Jackson’s now infamous small-ball with a second-half starting lineup of Lawson, Miller, Iguodala, Chandler, and Koufos. Golden State went on an immediate 10-1 run against this lineup to assert total control of the game.

This lineup, which Karl started in the second half, went 0-5 with 4 turnovers and allowed Golden State an offensive rating of 163.6 in game 2. It does not get any worse than that. That was just a five minute stint, but this was supposed to be the Nuggets’ big adjustment to get themselves going in the biggest game of the year. They had an entire halftime to gameplan and that’s what they came up with.

That is concerning. Defensively, that lineup doubly exposes the problem of dealing with the Warriors’ length. It’s bad enough to try and hide Lawson’s defense from the rangy backcourt of Curry and Thompson, but with Miller also out there you are essentially conceding open space to one of them. Denver tried to address this by putting Miller on Harrison Barnes but that didn’t work either, as Barnes exploded for 17 of his 24 points in the second half.

Mark Jackson’s gamble of starting his best lineup from game one and daring Karl to beat it the same way paid off. If Denver thinks they can play that game, they’ve already lost.

Bench Koufos

In many ways, Koufos’ plight mirrors that of the Denver Nuggets. He’s built himself a solid career with a workmanlike attitude and commitment to playing the right way. Then, we get to the playoffs where raw physicality and brute strength win out, and Koufos’ novel approach to big man play ends up looking like a useless gimmick.

I am not one for overreaction, but Koufos has been beyond terrible in this series. His game two performance should go down as one of the worst in Nuggets playoff history. In 14 minutes, he recorded only two rebounds and a steal. Both of those rebounds came off of errant airballs that were on their way out of bounds. That means Koufos’ effort failed to produce a single meaningful stat in the biggest game of his career. I do not believe that is something you can brush off as a bad game.

Koufos is expected to provide toughness down low, but he hasn’t looked fit to stand in the same gym as Andrew Bogut, who has hardly broken a sweat in 53 carefree, dominant minutes of this series. Bogut had a pretty poor game 2, getting whistled for some careless illegal screening and fumbling a number of easy passes that would have led to bunnies at the rim.

Even so, Koufos has been totally helpless to keep Bogut from dominating the paint on both ends. Offensively, he does not register on the Warriors’ radar and Bogut doesn’t even feign interest in guarding him outside the paint. Of course all of this is secondary to Koufos’ simple inability to put up any sort of fight against the Warriors in the paint. Koufos has played 40 minutes in this series and has more personal fouls than defensive rebounds.

In this series, he has no role against the physical Bogut or the “four-out” spread offense of Golden State. He has already failed to provide toughness and stability to the Nuggets defense and the simple fact is you can’t allow Bogut to keep seeing such a ridiculously easy matchup.

I strongly believe Koufos should not be the starter anymore and jump to the end of the line as another big body off the bench. It’s unfortunate, but the matchup demands adjustments and this is one the Nuggets simply can’t afford to ignore.

]]>http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2013/04/24/adjustments-adversity-await-nuggets-in-game-3/feed/45The trading posthttp://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2012/06/11/the-trading-post/
http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2012/06/11/the-trading-post/#commentsTue, 12 Jun 2012 05:09:56 +0000http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/?p=4009As fans, one of our favorite things to do is play the role of NBA general manager. We love to analyze players, ponder team needs and above all, formulate trade scenarios that will facilitate the movement of assets towards the team we often fantasize about in the hopes these transactions will one day lead directly to an NBA title. In other words, we love trades. This article aims to celebrate that unbridled fandom by introducing three realistic trade scenarios involving the NBA Draft and of course, Roundball Mining Company’s favorite piece of trade bait: Wilson Chandler.

If you’re new to this site or still unsure as to why Chandler is perpetually the subject of trade rumors, read this, and if you’re still unsure, know these simple facts: Chandler is young. He’s in the first year of a very cap-friendly contract. He’s athletic. He’s versatile. He likes defense. Given the chance to start, at the very least he’s a 15 points per game scorer. Would the Nuggets be a better team with him on the roster? Yes. But he’s not better than Gallinari and with three other, very talented small forwards on the team fully capable of doing the same things he can, Chandler then becomes tradeable for one big reason: value.

In theory the Nuggets could trade Chandler for another proven veteran, but the chances they get equal value in return simply isn’t that great. Quality contracts are hard to come by in the NBA. Often times good players are either overpayed or on the verge of being overpayed. The best and most cost-effective contracts in the NBA are given to rookies, specifically those in the first round of the NBA Draft.

Add all this on top of the fact that 2012 NBA Draft is one of the best in recent memory, and you have the perfect recipe for a Wilson Chandler-Nuggets fan-trade scenario pie. Here are three pieces I’ve concocted. Feel free to slice up one of your own in the comments section below!

(Note: The Nuggets possess three picks in this year’s draft: 20, 38 and 50.)

1. Chandler for No. 8

Toronto gets: Wilson Chandler, 20th pick in the first round, 38th pick in the second round and a future second-round selection.

Denver gets: Eighth pick in the first round.

Why Toronto pulls the trigger: The Raptors have been desperate for a legitimate, starting small forward for years. They highly covet Chandler and had the intention of offering him a contract after his return from China. They’ve made it very clear they’re in need of an athletic wing and are open to the possibility of trading the eight pick in the 2012 Draft in order to obtain one. Adding Chandler, in addition to last year’s No. 5 overall selection, Jonas Valanciunas, completes their starting five rotation and gives the fanbase the hope of a bright, young future for years to come. Furthermore, the 20th pick gives the Raptors another opportunity to hit home run, while the 38th pick alongside the Raptors own pick at 37 gives them back-to-back opportunities in the early part of the second round to target additional players on their Draft list.

Why Denver pulls the trigger: The Nuggets need a potential All-Star. Yes, their starting five looks set for years, but at the same time, nobody is confusing Danilo Gallinari with Dirk Nowitzki or JaVale McGee with Tim Duncan. At some point the Nuggets must acquire a special player who can carry the team through rough stretches in the postseason. If Denver feels this player isn’t available at eight, they can package the pick along with another player to move up even further.

Who Denver targets with the pick(s): Damian Lillard, Dion Waiters, Jeremy Lamb and Perry Jones will all likely be options at this point. Each of these players has tremendous potential and a distinct skill set compared to the others. Nuggets management would be able to select which one they believe in most. There’s also an outside chance Andre Drummond and Harrison Barnes drop to No. 8, both of whom would be steals at that point.

2. Chandler for two, mid-first-round picks

Houston gets: Wilson Chandler, 20th pick in the first round and 38th pick in the second round.

Denver gets: 14th and 16th picks in the first round.

Why Houston pulls the trigger: This trade would essentially breathe life into a middling franchise that has been attempting to rebuild on the fly for years. After collapsing during the final stretch of the season to miss the Playoffs for the third straight year, general manager Daryle Morey will be looking to make a move — as he always is — to push the Rockets over the cusp of mediocrity. Much like the Raptors, Chandler is the missing piece to the puzzle for the Rockets. With the 20th and 38th picks in the draft, the Rockets will still be able to add young talent to an already up-and-coming team.

Why Denver pulls the trigger: Two picks are always better than one, especially in the first round. In such a deep draft, good players are bound to slip. Having two, near back-to-back picks will allow the Nuggets to select several players that would likely be Top 10 picks in any other draft. This trade doubles the team’s chances of landing a star player in a single year, only minutes apart.

Who Denver targets with the pick(s): It’s difficult to predict who will fall on Draft night. As of now guys like Meyers Leonard, Kendall Marshall, Arnett Moultrie, Terrence Ross, Terrence Jones and even Jared Sullinger all stand the chance to land somewhere outside the Top 10. Even the aforementioned Perry Jones could slip. If the Nuggets could land a combination of these two players — say, Terrence Jones and Marshall for example — it would increase the team’s already incredible depth as well as its talent level, star potential and assets, all at the same time.

3. Chandler for back-to-back picks

Denver gets: 21st and 22nd picks in the first round, 51st pick in the second round.

Why Boston pulls the trigger: After making a magical run to the Conference Finals and falling one game short of a third NBA Finals appearance in five years, the Celtics feel they’re not through yet. But to continue this run they need to offer Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen an incentive to re-sign since both are free agents. This move convinces Garnett and Allen, in addition to numerous other free agents, that the Celtics are still contenders for at least two more years. If the Celtics don’t accomplish their goal after one year, Harrington’s contract is only partially guaranteed from that point on and Mozgov will be a free agent, leaving Chandler, Jeff Green, Pierce and Rondo as solid building blocks for the future.

Why Denver pulls the trigger: Possessing back-to-back-to-back picks in any draft is rare, but in this draft it’s the equivalent of hitting the lottery (figuratively, of course). At 20, 21 and 22, there will still be an array of talented players for the Nuggets to select from without running the risk of a team potentially thwarting its draft strategy. In addition, all three of these players will be on rookie contracts for the next four years, lending a monumental amount of cap space to sign veteran free agents that will help stabilize the team and assist in the development of these youngsters. The Nuggets will also have back-to-back selections at 50 and 51 which they could use, or combine, to move up further into the Draft.

Who Denver targets with the pick(s): As has already been mentioned in our first Big Board article, Andrew Nicholson, Royce White and Will Barton would all be excellent selections with the three picks. Players like Moe Harkless, Austin Rivers and Arnett Moultrie could slip, giving the Nuggets even more options to salivate over. This also gives Denver the luxury of selecting an incredibly talented yet risky prospect like Tony Wroten without suffering the consequences of wasting its one and only pick on that player, should he not pan out.

]]>http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2012/06/11/the-trading-post/feed/88Denver Nuggets Big Board: First impressionshttp://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2012/06/08/denver-nuggets-big-board-first-impressions/
http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2012/06/08/denver-nuggets-big-board-first-impressions/#commentsFri, 08 Jun 2012 09:01:19 +0000http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/?p=3997It’s been nearly a year since Roundball Mining Company unveiled its last Big Board. The man who held the No. 1 spot on that list ended up being the man who the Nuggets drafted with the 22nd pick in the 2011 NBA Draft. That worked out pretty well. Now after months of scouting and analyzing the NCAA’s best prospects, I finally get the opportunity to do one of my favorite things in the world: speculate on the NBA Draft. This is Roundball Mining Company’s first Big Board of the year.

Before we get started there are few very important things you should know.

First: I am not a professional scout. Hell, I’m not even an amateur scout. To me, the word “scout” implies someone working for a team. I don’t do that. Everything you read from here on out is nothing but my first-hand observations of players I’ve watched throughout the 2011 NCAA Mens Basketball season, in addition to numerous scouting reports and articles I’ve read to corroborate my initial findings.

So why trust me?

Again, I’m just a fan who writes; however, I do watch more college hoops than the average Joe. Last year I got accepted to moonlight for The Hoops Report and while I didn’t get to write nearly as much as I had hoped, holding the position forced me to compile scouting reports for many of the top prospects in the country. Unless otherwise noted, each of the players below are ones I’ve seen play in full, 40-minute games at least two to three times last season. While I understand this is an extremely small sample size compared to what NBA general managers see, it has still allowed me to gauge each of these players’ strengths and weaknesses, as well as everything in between.

Second: The crop of players I’ve culled, and will continue to select in future articles for our Big Board series, are done in respect to prestigious NBA Draft analysts’ “mock drafts.” Illustrious writers for ESPN, DraftExpress, HoopsWorld and HoopsHype among others, compile scrupulous mock drafts based on talent, potential, team needs and most importantly, what they hear from those plugged into the NBA Draft circuit. These trusted mock drafts offer up an extremely accurate blueprint for which players may go where; therefore, guys like Harrison Barnes and Bradley Beal will not be appearing in this Big Board! This article is reserved strictly for players that have a solid chance of being available with the 20th pick in the Draft!

Finally: (And this sort of ties into the last point…) Those who appear in this Big Board are guys who almost certainly won’t go much higher than the 20th pick in the Draft. There is still a lot of time before June 28. Rumors will slowly leak and we will gain a better understanding of which teams likes which guys, but for now, these are players most see as mid to late first-rounds picks. There will be separate Big Boards for different crops of players leading all the way up to Draft night. To start off, lets take a look at the most underrated, yet realistic options for the 20th pick, aka, my favorites thus far…

Unlike last year when I knew Kenneth Faried would hold the No. 1 position on RMC’s Big Board throughout the pre-Draft process, 2012 has required quite a lot of “prospecting” in order to find a top dog for our list. Truth be told, any of the names below would be great selections at 20, however Nicholson stands out for several reasons.

In the Atlantic 10 title game against Xavier, Nicholson put forth an incredible 26 points, 14 rebounds and eight blocks on .538 shooting from the field and a perfect 10-10 from the free throw line. It was one of the most dominating performances I can remember seeing at the college level.

For the season Nicholson averaged 18.5 points, 8.4 rebounds and two blocks per game while winning the Atlantic 10’s Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year awards. He also had a 21-point, 23-rebound game against Duquesne; scored over 30 points four different times and shot .434 percent from beyond the arc despite being a 6-9 power forward. In other words, he had an absolute monster season, most of which went uncovered by the national media.

Though the numbers are appealing, it’s Nicholson’s skill set that intrigues me most.

Originally a low-post defender, Nicholson improved his perimeter shooting each year at St. Bonaventure to the point where he’s now drawing comparisons to Ryan Anderson — the NBA’s leading 3-point shooter in 2011-12. Though this is definitely a misleading, it goes to show just how impressed scouts are with Nicholson’s range.

Nuggets fans shouldn’t get it twisted. I’m here to tell you: Nicholson’s post game is his real strength. Since his freshman year he’s gained 50 pounds. He has a lengthy 7-4 wingspan, measured in with the biggest hands at the NBA Draft Combine and size 18 shoes. He’s extremely nimble for a power forward and has some of the best footwork of any prospect over the last handful of years. He has a lethal drop step and an array of different hooks. All these elements combine to form a post presence already fit to compete in the NBA.

Knocks on Nicholson are that he’s not super athletic, that he runs weird (picture the Grinch) and that he’s not a great creator or passer. In my opinion, all of these criticisms are deceiving.

Is he Hakeem Olajuwon? Of course not, but who is? To say he’s lacking in athleticism is just off base. Though he does hunch when he runs — which could perhaps create back problems down the line — it’s not as if this is incurable or some sort of “red flag.” Dude just runs weird. You would too if you had feet that big. As far as his passing goes, at St. Bonaventure he was asked to carry that team on a nightly basis. Occasionally Nicholson will get sticky hands but he’s about the last thing from Carmelo Anthony in that sense. Nicholson has proven to be a team player and if surrounded with more talent, should have no problems sharing the rock.

Overall, my conclusion of Nicholson is this: He’s a very crafty, very skilled big man who can score efficiently in the post, stretch the floor and play lock-down defense. How often do these types of guys come along and furthermore, fly under the radar? Word on the street is that Nicholson is tearing up workouts and if that’s the case, he has a great chance of going higher than 20 — which he damn well should. If Nicholson played for North Carolina or Kentucky he’d be a top 15 pick. Thankfully for the Nuggets he played at St. Bonaventure and wore brown uniforms.

2. Royce White // Sophomore – Iowa State // 6-8 // Power Forward

We covered White extensively in our last post. By now Nuggets fans should be familiar with his game as well as his off-court drawbacks. Having led his team in all five major statistical categories last year, White is probably the most versatile forward in the Draft. Unfortunately he’s also hindered by chronic anxiety, which includes fear of flying. While this continues to give franchises trepidation about drafting him in the first round, White has been vocal in stating his confidence to overcome his anxiety, specifically that of the aerial variety.

After watching the Draft Combine in Chicago a few things become clear, or should I say, more clear about White: (A) He’s a bad shooter. And (B), he’s a really interesting guy.

Watching White try and shoot was almost painful. I knew this was a weakness however it didn’t stand out in games as much as it did at the Combine when he was forced to take one jump shot after another. Not only did White miss almost every attempt, but his form looked broken as well. At this point White just isn’t confident in his shooting stroke which is plain to see.

Don’t put too much stock into this one performance as the Combine is virtually useless these days; however, do keep in mind that unlike Nicholson, White has glaring weakness to his game that will need some work.

He also gave an interview with Andy Katz. It was short and to the point. Here is what I collected:

I really like White from a personal standpoint. Admittedly, a small reason why Nicholson is No. 1 on this list is because he’s intelligent and has a personality. White is the same way. He carries himself well, is articulate and has received good grades in school. When asked by Katz if he was growing out his beard as an ode to James Harden, White said no, that it was actually an ode to John Lennon, however he appreciates the way Harden plays the game of basketball.

Judging prospects based on their taste in music is obviously ill-advised and and illogical. Though White was going to appear at this spot regardless, his appreciation for good music certainly didn’t dock him any points. Good thing I’m not a scout.

3. Will Barton // Sophomore – Memphis // 6-5 // Shooting Guard

If you know why Will Barton is slated to go in the late first to early second-round of the Draft, please tell me… because I can’t figure it out.

Like Nicholson, this is a guy I’ve had my eye on all year long. After the first month of the season when he was averaging roughly 21 points and nine rebounds per game against teams like Michigan, Louisville and Georgetown, I just figured everyone would eventually catch on.

Not exactly the case.

While Barton eventually cooled off he still finished the season averaging 18 points, eight rebounds three assists and nearly 1.5 steals per game while shooting .509 percent from the field and .35 percent from downtown. He was named Conference USA Player of the Year and led Memphis to the conference title as well as a second-round birth in the NCAA Tournament.

Recently Hoops World interviewed Barton in an articled titled, Will Barton, The Sleeper of 2012 Draft? In it Barton expresses his frustration with being overlooked and emphatically states how, across the board, his numbers were better than his counterparts who are slated to go in the Lottery.

In terms of his game, Barton is very well rounded and energetic. He has one of the best motors in the 2012 Draft class (rare for a shooting guard) and rebounds like a power forward. He’s extremely athletic and utilizes his acrobatics to finish strongly around the rim. He’s a solid shooter with a crafty mid-range game yet has the ability to stroke it from deep. Though shot selection can be a problem at times, Barton has improved significantly in this regard, showing maturity in the process.

Terrence Ross and John Jenkins have both worked out for the Nuggets. If it’s a shooter the team is after, each of those players is a solid option; however, the best pure value at the shooting guard position likely comes in the form of Will Barton. He’s this year’s MarShon Brooks.

]]>http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2012/06/08/denver-nuggets-big-board-first-impressions/feed/49Prospecting: In search of a more “content” Felton in the NBA Drafthttp://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2011/06/13/prospecting-in-search-of-a-more-content-felton-in-the-nba-draft/
http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2011/06/13/prospecting-in-search-of-a-more-content-felton-in-the-nba-draft/#commentsMon, 13 Jun 2011 20:09:22 +0000http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/?p=2449In the upcoming Draft, the Denver Nuggets will likely steer towards selecting the best player available at No. 22, with small forward being the exception due to the current bounty already on the roster (Gallinari, Chandler & Harrington). Exercising this strategy means putting the franchise at risk of potentially taking a player who doesn’t necessarily fit a position of need. With Ty Lawson appearing to be the perpetual starting point guard of the Nuggets for years to come and Raymond Felton still on the roster (nominally, at least), the demand for another point guard isn’t quite a Mile High right now in Denver. But what happens if the best player available at No. 22 just-so-happens to be a point guard? Do we take that player and groom him into a back-up behind Lawson, who similarly played this exact role behind Billups? Or do forgo this opportunity in order to address a more pressing position of need? It’s tough to say, but just in case this situation plays out on draft night, Roundball has you covered as to which players might pose this conundrum, and which — if any — are worthy of selecting.

Charles Jenkins // 6-3 // Hofstra// Senior

The story behind Jenkins rise to the summit of the list of point guard prospects heavily considered by Roundball Mining Co. can almost entirely be attributed to a reader by the screen name of “Slader.” About three weeks ago when I started doing thorough research of this draft, Slader mentioned some guy out of Hofstra who I had heard of, but never put much stock into as I was entirely focused on the Nuggets drafting a big man. Yet, as time progressed, Slader continued to endorse his man and it seems the entire country caught on as well. Jenkins is now seen as one of the most valued prospects in this draft, and one who will likely be available by the time the Nuggets select.

To say Jenkins is purely a scoring machine would be an understatement; he’s an efficient scoring machine, one of the best in this year’s draft — and his passing ain’t half bad either, in fact, it’s excellent. The two-time CAA (Colonial Athletic Association) Player of the Year and three-time (all in a row) Hagerty Award winner (given to the best player in the New York metro area), finished fourth in the nation last year in scoring on at least 50 percent shooting from the field, 40 percent from downtown and 80 percent from the line, all while averaging 4.8 assists and 1.7 steals per game in the process. If you haven’t already, I strongly urge you to read “Numbers reveal NBA draft’s most complete player, biggest sleeper” by Luke Winn of SI.com (suggested by Slader), as it details Jenkin’s incredible shooting abilities much better and more in depth than I’m able to. Here is a small taste:

A further breakdown of Jenkins’ 2010-11 numbers only bolsters his case as a high-value pick in the late first round, or early in the second. As the focal point of the Pride’s offense, he was rarely left unattended — 63.4 percent of his catch-and-shoot opportunities came with a man in his face — yet showed an ability to make tough jumpers. His efficiency on guarded shots off the catch was 1.3898 PPP, which ranked 15th nationally among players with at least 50 such possessions. And while Jenkins shoots right-handed, he can go left off the dribble better than anyone in the draft: He had a national-best efficiency of 1.3261 PPP on left-hand drives, which he did 59 percent of the time.

Jenkins is also a rare master of the mid-range game, which has largely disappeared from college hoops as teams run offenses focused on threes and layups. At 1.2069 PPP, Jenkins was the most efficient mid-range player scorer in the nation last season; the runner up was Ohio State’s William Buford — who could be a 2012 first-rounder — at 1.0333 PPP.

Additionally, Winn states that of the other combo guards considered to be elite in this draft (Fredette, Burks, Brooks, etc.), Jenkins proved to be the most efficient in isolation situations and second most efficient — next to Jimmer — in spot-up situations. And although the numbers are enticing, it’s the analyst (or should I say “expert”?) proclamations that really intrigue me, like this one from Doug Gottlieb in which he recently stated, “Having seen Jenkins dismantle Kemba and Jerome Dyson over a year ago in Storrs, and after poring over a ton of film on the two, it is my belief that Jenkins is a smarter, better play than Walker in the first 20 picks.”

Wow. Though I don’t always put that much stock into what Doug Gottlieb has to say regarding mid-major player-analysis, as a flourishing Jenkins fan, I must admit, I kind of want a piece of this.

Josh Selby // 6-2 // Kansas // Freshman

Unlike the aforementioned Jenkins, this point guard prospect has the potential to one day become a franchise level player in the NBA — at least in my opinion. Coming out of high school Selby was ranked as the No. 5 overall recruit by ESPN and No. 1 overall recruit by Rivals.com, ahead of prestigious prospects like Enes Kanter, Harrison Barnes, Kyrie Irving, Jared Sullinger, Brandon Knight, Tobias Harris, Perry Jones and Terrence Jones. To put this high praise into perspective, of all the players mentioned above, only Harris and possibly Jones are slated to land outside the top 10 of either this year’s draft or the already infamous 2012 NBA Draft. So why is Selby ranked so low, putting him in a position to possibly be selected by the Nuggets at No. 22? There are an array of different reasons, but his less-than-stellar freshman season at Kansas is likely the primary culprit.

With extremely high expectations coming out of high school, Selby was relegated to the bench his first nine games of his collegiate career due to recruitment violations in which he sought advice (amongst other things) from — ironically — Carmelo Anthony’s business manager, Robert “Bay” Frazier. (In case you’re wondering, yes, Selby has a relationship with Carmelo Anthony as well, which kind of scares me knowing he could be drafted by the Nuggets.) After the suspension Selby erupted for 21 points and a game-winning shot, but this successful stint didn’t last long, as eventually Selby’s minutes were slashed — partly due to attitude problems and partly due to a lack of production when given the opportunity. After one season at Kansas, Selby finished the year averaging a measly 7.9 points, 2.2 rebounds, 2.2 assists and two turnovers per game on a disastrous .373 percent from the field. Needless to say, Selby’s freshman year at Kansas was a forgettable one.

So what do we make of Selby’s troublesome, inefficient one-and-done season at Kansas? Honestly, not much. What often gets brushed under the rug with Selby is the fact that he was also haunted by nagging injuries all last year and never really got a full opportunity to play big time minutes. Granted, some of this was probably due to a shaky attitude, but only three times the entire season did Selby play over 30 minutes and all three occasions were in the first seven games of his collegiate career.

To me, the fact remians: All that talent from high school didn’t just get up and walk away. Selby’s freshman year is an anomaly, not a trend. In fact, since he departed from Kansas, Selby has garnered high praise for his attitude, interviews and on-court leadership in workouts. He’s apparently shown a strong commitment to improving the weaker aspects of his game as well as taking advice from his coaches. If the Nuggets were to draft Selby, his “buy low” value would be a steal at 22. He’d likely take a year or so to fully develop, but in the end we could be looking at the most lethal point guard tandem in the entire league, as Selby’s ability to create off the dribble would be an excellent counter-punch to Ty’s speedy distribution techniques.

Iman Shumpert // 6-6 // Georgia Tech // Junior

Shumpert is the classic case of, “the more you see, the more you like.” Originally touted as an early to mid-second round selection, Shumpert has drastically elevated his stock as of late due to freakishly athletic measurements at the combine and solid team workouts. Currently, Draft Express has the Nuggets taking Shumpert with the No. 22 selection, and there seems to be a good chance this prediction comes to fruition on draft night.

After giving a now notoriously impressive showing about a week ago for the Nuggets in which he reportedly jumped out of the building on a few occasions, Shumpert has most likely solidified his case as a player the Nugget are willing to select if still available at 22, especially when you consider how good of a fit he would be to the team.

With J.R. and Felton likely on the way out, both backup guard positions should be vacant, and that’s where Shumpert comes in. As an underclassmen, Shumpert saw most of his minutes by way of point guard in which he averaged a very respectable 10 points and 4.5 assists per game, but as a junior this past season, Shumpert’s role was drastically increased and as a result he transformed his overall game and numbers for the best.

In 2010-11 Shumpert finished up the season averaging 17.3 points, 5.9 rebounds, 3.5 assists and an incredible 2.7 steals per game, the highest amongst all prospects slated to be drafted. Throughout the year Shumpert notched eye-popping performances on the regular including a 24-point, 10-rebound, four-assist, four-steal performance against Albany; a 28-point, nine-rebound, eight-assist, four-steal performance against Charlotte; and a 22-point, 12-rebound, 11-assist, seven-steal triple-double (nearly a quadruple-double!!!) against Virginia Tech.

Continuing his numerical dominance, Shumpert tested out as the undeniable king of the athletic measurements at the Draft Combine in Chicago. There, Shumpert finished first in both the standing and maximum vertical, while also finishing third in bench reps (by just one) behind much bigger forward prospects Derrick Williams and Justin Harper. His vertical leaping ability in both categories tied the record for the best result in the last seven years and his maximum vertical was only one inch shy of Vince Carter’s legendary measurement in 1998. Shumpert also measured in with a lengthy 6-foot-10 wingspan and a toned 6.5 percent body fat. Perhaps Matt Kamalsky of Draft Express put it best, when he stated, “Iman Shumpert stole the show at the combine, looking like clearly the most physically gifted player in this entire draft class.”

But although the numbers are tantalizing, it’s Shumpert’s overall game that should intrigue Nuggets fans across the globe. Not the best shooter nor decision maker in terms of shot selection, Shumpert still managed to find his way to the line on a consistent basis where, along the way, he displayed great finishing ability and converted 80 percent of his free-throw attempts. And though the 17 points per game Shumpert averaged his junior year are promising, it’s his defense that’s his real strength, as scouts continue to label Shumpert one of the best defenders in this entire class.

Other potential prospects:

Reggie Jackson // 6-3 // Boston College // Junior

This is a guy who probably deserves his own profile similar to the ones above, but because of a knee injury that recently required surgery, his stock has taken a significant hit, causing nearly all mock drafts to have him going after the Nuggets selection at 22. Still, there’s a very strong possibility Jackson is on the Nuggets radar, and if the Colorado native can manage to impress in upcoming workouts once his knee heals he should shoot up draft boards and garner close attention from the Nuggets come June 23rd.

A brief synopsis of his game: Jackson is a very well-rounded combo guard capable of doing nearly everything on the floor. He’s athletic, can score in a variety of different ways and shoots at one of the most efficient clips of any player coming out of college. His lanky frame and quick feet allow him to defend fairly well, but because he’s somewhat slender, he also has trouble mixing it up and fighting off screens. Still, Jackson is a solid all-around prospect with no glaring weaknesses and a game that looks to translate well to the NBA.

Nolan Smith // 6-4 // Duke // Senior

As most who follow college basketball know, Smith had an incredible senior season last year at Duke where he averaged 20.6 points, 5.1 assists and 4.5 rebounds per game on his way to winning the ACC Player of the Year award as well as a First-Team All-American spot. Smith, like Jackson, is a well-rounded player, yet his pedestrian athleticism (by NBA standards, though the above photo seems to prove otherwise), forces him to rely on a more cerebral approach to the game, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing.

Smith by no means has any “red flags” but there are some question marks as to how well his game will translate to the NBA. For example, can he play point guard effectively at the next level and if not, how can he be expected to play shooting guard without elite athleticism? The bottom line for me: At 22 the type of talent available is still going to be premier, so by selecting Smith — a likely role player at best — we would be wasting a chance to snag somebody with worlds more potential. Further on down the line Smith should be a great pick, and if we happen to trade down I wouldn’t be opposed to selecting him, but first-round selections should be reserved for the prospects that make you salivate, and Smith just doesn’t cut it in this department.

Darius Morris // 6-5 // Michigan // Sophomore

Morris is a guy whom I really like personally, though I’m not sure how well he fits with the Nuggets as currently constructed. He’s a pass-first point guard who averaged 6.7 assists per game last year — the most of anybody slated to be drafted — who comes equipped with great size and craftiness. He won’t wow you with his scoring ability, but he’s certainly able to get his, evident by the 15 points per game scoring average he amassed last season.

The problem with Morris, like Smith, is that he doesn’t necessarily fit an area of need for the Nuggets, as we already have one of the best young pass-first points guards in the league in Ty Lawson. With the 22nd pick, it’s imperative that the Nuggets land a player who doesn’t duplicate another we already have, as there are too many areas of need to pass up on. Again, if we were able to trade down Morris might be in the cards, but at 22, I think a scoring guard should be more of a priority than a distributing one.

Final Thoughts:

When I originally started this break-down of potential guard prospects, I planned on ranking them — and though they are still somewhat ranked in order — I came to the conclusion after finishing my analysis that I simply can’t state with confidence where each one belongs in relation to another. The first three (Jenkins, Selby and Shumpert) are undoubtedly my personal favorites and ones who I believe would fit best on the team, while simultaneously offering a great deal of upside, but they are all so unique and promising in their own different ways that I just couldn’t definitively codify them without feeling somewhat dubious about it. I think should the Nuggets select either of the first three prospects it will be a solid choice at No. 22, but I still maintain that a big man is priority numero uno.

Stay tuned as Roundball Mining Company will soon unveil its Big Board 2.0, that will rank all the potential prospects covered over the last few weeks by taking into account team needs, potential, athleticism, skill level, etc.

]]>http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2011/06/13/prospecting-in-search-of-a-more-content-felton-in-the-nba-draft/feed/13Again, Carmelo Anthony Will Be Tradedhttp://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2010/08/27/carmelo-anthony-will-be-traded/
http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/2010/08/27/carmelo-anthony-will-be-traded/#commentsFri, 27 Aug 2010 09:26:53 +0000http://www.roundballminingcompany.com/?p=1672Just when it seemed like the Carmelo Anthony rumors were going to die down and let us move on with our lives Adrian Wojnarowski comes along and blows things up again.

According to a report on Yahoo! Sports by Mr. W. William Wesley told the Nuggets “weeks ago” that they needed to trade Carmelo and provided a list of acceptable destinations. That statement would support the theory I promoted earlier this week right here so it must be true.

Josh Kroenke then met with Carmelo on Sunday in an attempt to convince Carmelo that he should remain a Nugget. Apparently the meeting did not go well and the Nuggets are prepared to trade Carmelo. The Knicks, Nets, Rockets and Clippers are still listed as possible landing spots along with Golden State. Apparently Orlando has dropped off the list as I have not seen them mentioned lately.

While the article did not come as a surprise to me, I was encouraged to see a passage that provided some insight into what the Nuggets are thinking.

The Nuggets made it clear to teams they want young players and draft picks for Anthony, league executives said.

I understand the fears many Nuggets fans have of reliving the 19902, but in my mind that is very good news. Trying to remain competitive with an increasingly aged and banged up core of players could truly lead to a disaster. If you are not building toward a title, you better blow things up and it looks like that is what Denver is going to do.

I hate to do it, but let’s take a look at what the Clippers and Warriors have to offer as we have already gone over Knicks, Nets and Rockets assets in detail.

Let us dispense with the Golden State Warriors first as they are the easiest to analyze. The most frequently mentioned trade involving the Warriors is Monta Ellis and Andris Biedrins for Carmleo. That is simply a flat out preposterous deal. Denver will not accept the Warriors’ two toxic contracts in exchange for Carmelo. Golden State would certainly be unwilling to part with Stephen Curry. The Warriors have a couple of project big men in Brandan Wright and rookie Ekpe Udoh. Neither has a particularly high ceiling and there is no way either one or even both could be the centerpiece of a trade for Melo. To make things even worse for Golden State, they have traded their 2011 draft pick to New Jersey, which was just another asset that nets fans are unwilling to part with to Acquire Carmelo.

Golden State can join Orlando as teams that have been mentioned as potential suitors, but do not have the pieces to make things work.

Next we turn to the Los Angeles Clippers. Few players have been interested in playing in the shadow of the Los Angeles Lakers. However, the Clippers could be on the upswing thanks to the highly anticipated debut of 2009 number one overall pick Blake Griffin. I cannot imagine the Clippers would trade Griffin so we will remove him from the conversation. The most fascinating asset the Clippers hold is the rights to the Minnesota Timberwolves first round pick. Considering the mess that David Kahn has put together in the Land of 10,000 Lakes I would not mind getting my hands on that lottery ticket.

The Clippers can also offer a couple of nice young players in Eric Gordon and rookie Al-Farouq Aminu. The bad news is in order to make the salaries work, the Nuggets would have to take on Chris Kaman’s contract with two years remaining. The lack of expiring contracts hurts the Clippers, but they are nearly $5 million under the cap which means the salaries do not need to match exactly allowing the Nuggets to dump some extra salary. For example, while a Kaman, Gordon Aminu for Carmelo trade matches to within $250,000, that extra cap space the Clippers have could be used to include Chris Andersen in the trade as well.

The Clippers are definitely a contender for Carmelo’s services although a three way deal sending Kaman somewhere else, such as Detroit for Tayshaun Prince or Philly for Green, Kapono and local boy Jason Smith, and suddenly this option looks incredibly tempting.

I mentioned including Birdman in a deal with the Clippers above and that brings us to the true impact of Carmelo’s demands. Every Nugget is on the block at this point. With Denver entering a rebuilding process Birdman, Kenyon, Al Harrington and sadly Chauncey Billups become not only a bit out of place, but their presence actually hinders the rebuilding process as they make the team more competitive than it really should be. I would insist that any team acquiring Carmelo take on Birdman as well. I would tell Kenyon to sit at home and get healthy in anticipation of a trade deadline deal, that may or may not happen. Al Harrington cannot be traded until December, but once that day hits, I would have a deal in place for him too.

Chauncey will not be as easy to deal with. He deserves to play on a contender in Denver, but that is not going to be a possibility. The only destination that makes any sense in my mind is Charlotte. They need a point guard, they are at least competitive, they can swap Chauncey for Erik Dampier’s non-guaranteed contract and it will reunite Billups with Larry Brown. I honestly do not see a better situation for him unless he is still on the roster come December 15 and the Lakers can offer all of their players who are on one year contracts.

In case you are wondering, I would hang on to Nene. Quality bigs are difficult to find and even though he has a decent sized contract and would help the Nuggets win a few games he is too good to simply dump to get rid of his salary. I would also keep Ty Lawson on board and even though I think he is perfect as a role player on a contender more than a primary weapon on a team in transition I would not trade away Arron Afflalo unless I had to.

I know most observers are saying the Nuggets are going to fail to get equal value for Carmelo, and they are right. There is just no way around that fact. I strongly believe Denver is in a better position than everyone realizes. There will be competition between the Knicks, Nets, Rockets and Clippers. The Knicks, Nets are desperate to make a big move and acquire a marquee player. The Clippers are just a notch below that level. I can see Donald Sterling convincing himself that this is his chance to make a run at the Lakers and doing everything he could to acquire Melo.

In conclusion, for those of you who were still holding out hope, it is time to prepare to say goodbye to the Nuggets as we know them and get to know the name Harrison Barnes.