Drones could provide superior bushfire predictions in Australia

As bushfires rage in arid and sweltering southern Australia this
week, it's clear new technology to combat the annual threat could
not come soon enough. And, according to experts, we may already
have the equipment to do it: drones.

Unmanned aerial vehicles typically used in warfare and espionage could finally find an unquestionably morally
acceptable use, if regulations allow, says Thomas Duff of the
University of Melbourne's Bushfire Cooperative Research Centre,
which developed the Phoenix RapidFire bushfire simulator. Duff, who develops
bushfire modelling systems using weather, terrain and fuel
(vegetation) data for emergency services, believes the vast amount
of data gathered by drones could be sent to base via data links and
potentially provide far more accurate, real-time predictions of
where a fire will spread and when.

"As satellite information and airborne or lidar satellite
information becomes better we will have more accurate and precise
inputs into the model," Duff told itnews.com.au.

Explaining how current simulators work, he said: "You can
provide the model with a set of conditions and a location and it
actually spreads the fire in virtual time to show where the fire is
likely to impact. You can run that model over and over with
different conditions to find out where your most sensitive areas
are. We've been improving the technology, working on the
science on what works inside the model to make it more reflective
of what happens in reality. Every time we get more information we
can tune the model to make it better."

So far, using the Phoenix RapidFire software, the team can get
predictions within four minutes and use this information to suggest
where emergency services concentrate their attention. Developed in
2009, following the devastating Black Saturday bushfires in
Victoria, the team have also used it to demonstrate the efficacy of
prescribed burning, whereby dry vegetation that acts as fuel is
deliberately destroyed to manipulate the path of a potential
outbreak.

Today, as temperatures soar to record highs of 45C in rural New
South Wales and Tasmania surveys the irreparable damage the blaze
caused to 90 homes, a school and a police station within its
territory, it's clear Australia needs solutions far faster. The
fire, which has so far not claimed any lives (though 100 people are
unaccounted for), could end up being far worse than the 2009
catastrophe which left 173 people dead, say meterologists.

"The current heatwave is unusual due to its extent, with more
than 70 percent of the continent currently experiencing heatwave
conditions," said John Nairn, South Australia's acting regional director for
the Bureau of Meteorology.

According to the most recent statistics calculated from the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change's data, as temperatures continue to
increase the likelihood of serious bushfires will increase by up to
25 percent by 2020, and 70 percent by 2050.

Speaking in Hobart this week, to a city hall filled with
evacuees, Prime Minister Julia Gillard warned: "[While] you
would not put any one event down to climate change… we do know that
over time as a result of climate change we are going to see more
extreme weather events."

"From an aircraft point of view and a sensing point of view the
technology is there," said Duncan Campbell, head of the Australian
Research Centre for Aerospace Automation. Campbell is currently
working on embedding drones with smart sensors that prevent them
from colliding with aircraft. "The big issue is the use of the
airspace and that comes down to regulatory issues." Nevertheless,
he predicts we'll see them in action over Australian skies within
two years. However, we won't be seeing pricey military grade
versions:

"What we're more likely to see in Australia are the smaller
machines in the order of a few 100kg, flying a lot lower."

These would gather infinitely more data than experts have at
their disposal right now, with detailed, high resolution surveying
of the landscape giving more accurate predictions overall.

With the "loan-a-drone" programme in the US gaining attention, it's
unsurprising Australia wants to tick all the boxes before giving
the go ahead to any drones in its domestic skies. It will need to
not only ensure the safety of its citizens and its airspace, but
guard against misuse by local law enforcement once legislation is
in place. However, given the nation reprised plans to spend AU$3
billion (£2 billion) on buying a fleet of seven drones last year, citizens would
presumably like the decision-making to gather pace soon. Opting for
the pricey Global Hawk models, authorities hope to deploy the fleet
purely to watch over its waters, with an eye to using its high
resolution cameras and aperture radars to intercept refugees on
tiny, inconspicuous boats.

Edited by David Cornish

Comments

Note drones now being suggested this in 2009 to the Committee there, Why the delay?Have Suggested to your High Commissioner in London Mr Mike Rann use of Satlitte Tracking also. Many ideas available. All should be tried as potential for worse bushfires in future, inevitableRegards Len Colston