First burst of spring to nudge mercury to high 20s in parts of Sydney

The first notable burst of spring heat will sweep across south-eastern Australia early next week, sending temperatures into the mid- to high-20s in Sydney by Wednesday.

Meteorologists have been watching the warmth building in central Australia, with almost 33 degrees reached at Alice Springs today. Conditions will push that heat towards the southern states in coming days.

Beachy weather ahead - provided you stay out of the water.Credit:James Alcock

"Winds from the north will draw that heat from central Australia a bit closer [to Sydney] each day," Brett Dutschke, senior meteorologist with Weatherzone, said.

"There's a fair chance to get into the mid-20s and the high 20s in [Sydney's] western suburbs [next week]," he said.

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On current Bureau of Meteorology forecasts, Sydney's daily tops will start to climb into the low 20s from Sunday, reaching 27 degrees in the city and 29 degrees in Penrith and Richmond by Wednesday.

Warming up at Manly on Tuesday: spring weather is just around the bend.Credit:Louie Douvis

That warmth, though, could also be accompanied with strong and gusty winds, lifting fire risks, Mr Dutschke said.

While the sunshine might encourage visits to the beach, staying dry might be the go unless you're packing a wetsuit. Ocean temperatures off Sydney are about 15 degrees, near the coolest of the year.

Over the coming week, Saturday is likely to be the only day of below-average warmth. Rainfall should be limited to the odd shower before conditions dry up from Sunday.

Spring heatwave risks

Longer and more severe heatwaves have become more common as, with climate change, the band of high pressure in both hemispheres expands towards the Poles.

For Australia, such heatwaves have also come earlier and been more intense during years of drought when there is less soil moisture available to moderate the heat through evaporation.

The first notable burst of spring heat will sweep across south-eastern Australia early next week, sending temperatures into the mid- to high-20s in Sydney by Wednesday.Credit:Janie Barrett

For eastern Australia, evaporation during the winter just past was easily the highest on record in data going back to 1975, averaging about 440 millimetres, according to the bureau. That compared with an average rainfall of about 50 millimetres.

Fitzroy Crossing in Western Australia reached 40 degrees on Tuesday, the third earliest on record in the warming season, according to the bureau. The earlier dates were 1 September 2013 also at Fitzroy Crossing and 27 August 1970 at WA's Kalumburu.

Historically some of the most severe spring heatwaves have also coincided with El Nino events, such as in 1982, 1994 and 2002, the bureau says.

Conditions in the Pacific are priming for an El Nino event possibly by the end of spring. El Ninos tend to reduce rainfall over eastern Australia

While NSW has now been declared as entirely in drought, the big dry is also spreading southwards. Victoria has had eight consecutive months of below-average rain.

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Fire season outlook

On Thursday, the Bushfire & Natural Hazards Co-operative Research Centre will release its report on expectations for the bushfire season in southern Australia, with most of eastern Australia's forested areas likely to face a more active fire season this year.

Mr Dutschke said there were some signs of the bushfire risks "waning a bit" towards the end of spring and into summer, with the potential for better rains.

He noted, though, that many of the bigger fires at least in the Sydney region in recent years had come earlier in the season, such as in October.