Wednesday, August 15, 2012

Carter, Brown and Reed Continue to Wait for Hall Call

By Dan Trammel
@HighwaytoHall

At the time of Tim Brown’s retirement in 2004, Cris Carter, Brown, and Andre Reed ranked 2, 3, 4 in career receptions behind Jerry Rice. They were viewed by many to be sure Hall of Famers, but they each have been repeatedly denied entry. With each passing year, their numbers look less impressive, as they currently rank 4,5,10 in receptions. With Marvin Harrison, Terrell Owens, Randy Moss, Isaac Bruce and numerous others eligible for the NFL Hall of Fame over the next several years, voters will find it difficult to select one particular receiver over another, and the end result will be an increasing backlog in which few receivers are selected.

In 1984, only thirteen receivers had recorded at least 500 career receptions, of which 8 are in the Hall of Fame. Of those thirteen receivers, only four totaled 600 career receptions, all of whom are Hall of Famers. Entering the 2012 season, 116 players have 500 career receptions, eight of whom have caught 1000 passes. In part due to rules changes making passing easier, the NFL has become more of a passing league, which continues to devalue receiving records. As such, receivers from previous generations become even more difficult to appreciate. Let’s look at the career numbers of 5 of the top receivers of the 1970s:

Name

Receptions

Receiving Yards

Receiving TDs

Harold Jackson

579

10372

76

Harold Carmichael

590

8985

79

Cliff Branch

501

8685

67

Drew Pearson

489

7822

48

Isaac Curtis

416

7101

53

At first glance, these numbers may not seem impressive. But these numbers must be viewed in the context in which they were recorded. For example, in 1976, Cliff Branch totaled 1,111 yards receiving, in a league in which teams averaged 1,973 yards passing. In 2011, Brandon Marshall had 1,214 receiving yards but teams averaged 3,675 yards passing. Who had the better season? In order to view the career numbers of the above receivers in more modern terms, I took each season in which they played and adjusted their numbers twenty years into the future. For example, I translated Branch’s 1976 season above into 1996 terms. 1,111 receiving yards in 1976 is the equivalent of 1,816 yards in 1996. I translated his 1977 season into 1997 terms, his 1978 season into 1998 terms, and so on. Obviously there are limitations to this approach. But at least this gives us a better understanding of these player’s numbers. Here are the career numbers of the aforementioned receivers, translated through seasons twenty years later:

Name

Receptions

Receiving Yards

Receiving TDs

Harold Jackson

835

14324

94

Harold Carmichael

855

12354

99

Cliff Branch

704

11897

87

Drew Pearson

700

10911

59

Isaac Curtis

587

9794

68

All of a sudden, these receivers’ numbers look significantly better, particularly Carmichael’s 99 touchdown catches. It is likely these players would have even better numbers if I overlapped their careers with such players as Jimmy Smith or Keenan McCardell. The point of this exercise is, similar to home runs and saves in Major League Baseball, changes in rules and how the game is played, make it more difficult to evaluate players through certain statistical categories. Twenty years from now, Carter, Reed, and Brown may no longer be among the top twenty receivers statistically. This is why it is important to evaluate a player’s accomplishments through the era in which he played.

Obviously, the Hall of Fame voters look at more than a player’s numbers. If they didn’t Carter, Brown, and Reed would all be enshrined. A quick look at the Hall of Fame wide receivers tells us a Championship ring is important. It’s not everything (see Drew Pearson), but it helps (see Lynn Swann). Twenty-one modern era wide receivers are in the Hall of Fame. Of those 21, 17 have Championship rings. Let's look at the 4 that don't. Bobby Mitchell spent some of his career as a halfback and retired 2nd all-time in all-purpose yardage so, similar to Dennis Eckersley in baseball, he is difficult to group into one category. Then we have James Lofton, Steve Largent, and Charlie Joiner. Joiner and Largent both retired as the all-time leading receptions leader, while Lofton retired as the all-time receiving yardage leader. Retiring as the “All-Time Leading…” may play a role in a player’s candidacy. Obviously, Carter, Brown, and Reed came along behind Jerry Rice, who retired as the all-time receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns leader, so that is not entirely fair. But they did come along behind Rice. So they miss out on two big factors. None of the three have Super Bowl rings. And none retired as the all-time receptions or receiving yards leader.

So what can Carter, Brown, and Reed hang their hats on? Big game performances? The career postseason numbers of these three receivers:

Name

Receptions

Receiving Yards

Receiving TDs

Carter

63

870

8

Brown

45

571

3

Reed

85

1229

9

Reed has the best postseason numbers of the three receivers. In fact, he is 1 of 11 receivers with more than 1,000 yards in postseason play:

Name

Yards

Yards per reception

Jerry Rice

2245

14.87

Michael Irvin

1315

15.4

Cliff Branch

1289

17.66

Andre Reed

1229

14.46

Fred Biletnikoff

1167

16.67

Reggie Wayne

1127

13.74

Paul Warfield

1121

19.33

Drew Pearson

1105

16.49

Hines Ward

1064

14

Art Monk

1062

15.39

John Stallworth

1054

18.49

Reed also ranks 4th in postseason catches and tied for 7th in postseason touchdown catches. He played well in many playoff games, with 5 games of 100 yards receiving, including Super Bowl XXVII. Neither Carter nor Brown can match Reed’s postseason career. Brown appeared in his only Super Bowl at the age of 36 and caught one pass for nine yards. Carter never reached the Big Game.

As for accolades, Brown was named to 9 Pro Bowls, Carter 8, and Reed 7, three of the highest totals of all-time. Carter was twice named 1st team All-Pro by the Associated Press, and once named to the 2nd team. Reed was twice named to the 2nd team and Brown was selected for the 2nd team once. Carter and Brown were selected, with Rice and Michael Irvin, to the NFL All-Decade team of the 1990s. But do these numbers mean anything? Pearson was selected to the All-Decade team of the 1970s, was named 1st Team All-Pro three times, and won a Super Bowl ring, yet is not a Hall of Famer. In fact, let’s look at the accolades of a handful of non-Hall of Fame receivers:

Name

Pro Bowls

AP 1st Team All-Pro

AP 2nd Team All-Pro

Championships

Cliff Branch

4

3

0

3

Tim Brown

9

0

1

0

Isaac Bruce

4

0

1

1

Harold Carmichael

4

0

2

0

Cris Carter

8

2

1

0

Gary Clark

4

1

2

2

Henry Ellard

3

2

0

0

Marvin Harrison

8

3

5

1

Torry Holt

7

1

1

1

Harold Jackson

5

1

1

0

Herman Moore

4

3

0

0

Randy Moss

6

4

0

0

Terrell Owens

6

5

0

0

Drew Pearson

3

3

0

1

Mike Quick

5

2

0

0

Andre Reed

7

0

2

0

Sterling Sharpe

5

3

0

0

Del Shofner

5

5

0

0

Which of these receivers should be in the Hall of Fame? Was Tim Brown a better receiver than Cliff Branch because he made 5 more Pro Bowls? Was Branch better because he was a 3-time All-Pro with 3 Super Bowl rings? Does it matter that Brown scored 33 more touchdowns but averaged only 13.7 yards per catch compared to Branch’s 17.3? Does anyone know who Del Shofner is and do they care he was a 1st team All-Pro 5 times?

Lastly, did any of the three receivers leave a lasting legacy or contribute something in addition to catching passes? Well, Brown was a long time punt returner, currently 3rd on the all-time list for most punt returns. Although he never finished higher than 4th in punt return average in any season, he did lead the NFL in kick return average as a rookie. Overall, his 10.2 yd/punt return average is only good for 74th all-time. He wasn’t a dynamic returner like Deion Sanders or Rod Woodson, so I doubt he will get too much credit for his special teams numbers.

On the other hand, Carter has been called the “best boundary receiver” of all time. Being the “first” or “best” at a particular aspect of the game is sometimes the deciding factor in being selected. Just ask Bruce Sutter, who was helped by popularizing the split-finger fastball. The only similar situation among receivers is Bob Hayes, who revolutionized the game as one of the NFL’s first true deep threats. But despite retiring in 1975, he was not selected to the Hall until 2009 through the Senior Selection Committee. Did Carter leave as much of an impact on the game as Hayes?

Cris Carter, Tim Brown, and Andre Reed were all terrific wide receivers. But were they clearly better than the receivers listed above? With receiving numbers growing increasingly meaningless, Hall of Fame voters must evaluate receivers in different ways.Muhsin Muhammad is not a Hall of Famer simply because he ranks 17th all-time in catches, ahead of former record holders Largent and Joiner. As time goes on, and more receivers appear on the ballot, they will continue to cancel each other out. I believe Brown is viewed the least favorably of the three, so the voters must decide between Reed and Carter to help clear the upcoming logjam. Each has his supporters among the voters. Due to his postseason success compared to the others, Reed seemingly is the most likely of the three to gain entry. With that obstacle removed, Carter would be inducted the following year, as his acrobatic sideline catches are too great to ignore. But can they do so before Moss and Owens appear on the ballot? If not, these three receivers may have a very long wait.