Blizzard, High Wind, Fire, Severe Weather

By jeffpenner, on January 21st, 2018

Good Sunday bloggers,

We are tracking one heck of a storm system that will move from the southwest USA to Kansas to the Great Lakes today and Monday. There are watches and warnings for just about any weather you can imagine, however, eastern Kansas and western Missouri are taking a direct hit from the dry slot. This is the most tame part of a strong and functional storm system.

There is a Blizzard Warning from northeast Colorado, northwest Kansas to Nebraska, northwest Iowa and extreme southern Minnesota. There is a slight risk of severe weather from eastern Texas to Arkansas through far southeast Oklahoma and far northwest Louisiana, possibly clipping southern Missouri in subsequent updates. In locations that have seen basically no rain or snow in 100 days there are High Wind and Fire Weather warnings. There will also be quite a bit of blowing dust in those areas as well. In our area…a lonely Dense Fog advisory that expires at noon today.

Let’s go through the progression of the storm system with the new data, as we will see some rain and even snow!

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: The storm system will be getting it’s act together in the Plains. The snowstorm will be intensifying from Colorado to western Nebraska through northwest Kansas. We will be around 60°, likely seeing the warmest day since December 3, 2017.

SUNDAY 6 PM TO MIDNIGHT: This is when we have the best chance of precipitation with this storm system as scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible with temperatures mostly in the 50s, 40s in northern Missouri and around 60° to the south. Hopefully, you see a nice downpour to at least wash the salt and dirt off of the roads. The wet roads, due to condensation, in combination with the salt and dirt not only makes for a few slick spots, but really makes for a mess. The windshield washer fluid is much needed. Severe thunderstorms will be possible in Arkansas into far southern Missouri.

MONDAY 7 AM: We will be in the dry slot of the storm system, which means a period of clear sky, temperatures in the 30s to low 40s and an increasing wind from the west. We will not have to deal with black ice as temperatures will be above freezing. The snowstorm will be ongoing about 200 miles to the northwest.

MONDAY NOON: The wrap around of the storm system will be in the area with wind gusts to 35 mph, temperatures 35°-40° and a few rain showers, perhaps a snow shower.

MONDAY 2 PM TO 8 PM: We will see the wind continue with scattered snow and rain showers as temperatures stay mostly in the 30s, above freezing. So, this means we are expecting little to no accumulation with wet roads. We still have to watch this period closely, because, if the storm system is a bit slower, farther south and more intense, the snow will be less showery (more solid) with temperatures 30°-32°. In this scenario we would see a dusting to 1″ of snow with more of a chance of slick roads. The chance of this occurring is 20%.

MONDAY 8 PM TO MIDNIGHT: The snow and rain will end, the wind will slowly diminish as temperatures drop to the upper 20s and low 30s, mostly below freezing. So, if we do not see any snow accumulation, but there is enough moisture left on surfaces, we could see some black ice Monday night into Tuesday morning as lows drop to the 20s. A west-northwest breeze will help to dry surfaces.

There is little change in the thinking from Saturday as far as our area taking a direct hit from the least precipitation producing part of the storm system, the dry slot. We are expecting a trace to 0.25″ of rain with .25″ to 1″ near and east of the Mississippi river.

A blizzard with 6″ to 15″ of snow will occur from northeast Colorado to northwest Kansas, Nebraska, northwest Iowa to far southern Minnesota. These locations need the moisture just as bad as we do, so at least some locations are getting a reprieve from the dry weather.

So, in summary, we are expecting a trace to 0.25″ of rain and a dusting of snow to no accumulation. We will watch for that 20% window where we could see a dusting to 1″ of snow. If we are to get any accumulation it would be from 2 PM to 8 PM Monday.