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No clear front-runner for the papacy

ELEANOR HALL: A new pope could bring the opportunity for renewal in the Catholic Church, which has struggled with a shrinking congregation.

Dr Harry Hagopian is a consultant to the Catholic Bishops' Conference in England and Wales, and works closely with the Vatican.

He told our Europe correspondent Mary Gearin that Pope Benedict's announcement was such a shock that there is no clear front-runner for the job.

HARRY HAGOPIAN: I think the scramble has started, even before he officially resigns at the end of the month, so it could be anybody. And, at the moment, I think there is no leading name that one could talk about.

And the reason being that with John Paul II, there were two years where people knew he was eventually going to die, and therefore everybody had prepared himself for the succession.

With this one, people were caught by surprise and therefore, at the moment, it's basically a rush to try and get things ready for the election. And so, who will it be? I don't know, but I hope it will be somebody who will be able to galvanise the assembly of faithful.

Because, in the West particularly, we have a problem with the faith, and secondly somebody who could put some order into the Curia, and into the Vatican.

MARY GEARIN: Do you believe that this is a tussle of different approaches, or do you believe that everyone will follow the lead of Pope Benedict?

HARRY HAGOPIAN: Well there are certain dogmas and beliefs that nobody can actually digress from, but it's also a very personal touch. Different people have different ways of doing it. Look at the last two, or if you want, the last three or four. John Paul II was a star, he was full of charisma, he was somebody who attracted people just by singing with them.

This guy was a thinker. He was a towering intellect, but perhaps not as approachable or as confident as his predecessor and in a sense, I think each one brings their own expectations into the job, because at the end of the day, it's a succession, yes, but it's also a job.

And so, whomever takes over will hopefully be able to face the reality of the Church as it is, all its good things and its bad things, and harness those for the good of everybody. Not only Christians or Catholics for that matter, but also Jews, Muslims and all people of faith or no faith, because at the end of the day, it's an institution for everyone in my opinion, in its values, not only for people who belong to the Catholic Church.

MARY GEARIN: Would you say that all the cardinals are sold, if you like, on the need for reform and it's just going to be a tussle between who wants to do it faster, or more radically?

HARRY HAGOPIAN: I don't think it's easy to do it faster and radically or slower and more softly. There is an institution there. It's not only the person. I mean let us take any political institution or any corporate institution. When you have a new CEO coming in, him or she might be full of all the right intentions, but it depends on how much the institution would allow that person, and how fast that person could move forward with their reforms.

The same thing I think would apply to the Church across the board, whether it's Catholic or otherwise. And in that sense, it depends on the personality of the person, and how much that personality is synchronous with the institution and how much he pushes.

So, I think there is a realisation across the board that there is a sense of renewal that Pope Benedict in his short eight years has brought into the Church, but one that needs to be built upon.

And I think whoever the successor is, from whichever continent, incidentally, whether it's Australasia, Africa, Latin America or Europe, or even the Middle East, where there are uprisings at the moment challenging Christian communities in the whole region. I think they will have their hands full and it's a question of how they manage it.

MARY GEARIN: What do you believe are the greatest challenges that the new pope will face?

HARRY HAGOPIAN: The same challenges as all the popes have faced, which are the consolidation of the faith and bringing that faith into our modern, contemporary times.

The 21st century is not the 20th century, is not the 16th century, so much as the faith is the bedrock of the Church, values change, people's perceptions change and it's a question of how to communicate with the faithful.

It's not only a question, "I'm holy, therefore I know". "Yes, I'm holy, I know, but how do I actually pass on that sense of knowledge and faith and holiness to others?" If he, whoever that he is, can mobilise the faithful, then we have a good job on our hands. If he does not manage to do that, then the Church will go through a slower process of reform.