Is $4 the new $3 when it comes to gas?

Drivers can expect to pay record prices this spring with a gallon of unleaded gasoline hitting $3.50 nationwide, the Energy Information Administration said this week.

That’s ho-hum news for drivers in Seattle and on the West Coast, who are now used to seeing pumps register more than the national average. Unleaded regular gas in Seattle, on average, has cost 14.3 cents higher than the national average, since the EIA began tracking city stats in 2003.

AP File Photo 2004/Paul Sakuma

With that kind of news, many says $4 a gallon isn’t far away for those on the West Coast. Last year, regular unleaded in Seattle peaked at $3.465 on May 14. Drivers in Bellingham got a bigger sticker shock, with gas registering the highest in the state at $3.566 for regular unleaded. (Why the discrepancies in the state? The Attorney General’s Office is currently looking into it).

Today, regular unleaded gas in Seattle is $3.218, slightly down from yesterday and the day before, but still 50.9 cents more than this time last year. That’s according to the AAA Daily Fuel Gauge Report, which tracks daily prices.

“When we should be seeing the lowest prices of the year, we’re still well above $3 a gallon,” Janet Ray, a spokeswoman with AAA Washington, told me last week. “Where does that leave us when more people begin traveling and the switch-over happens?”

Expect higher prices this spring. Experts say there’s usually a run-up in gas prices in spring, as summer approaches and demand grows. Refineries go off line for scheduled maintenance and to switch to cleaner-burning summer blends, putting pressure on supply.

When the cost of crude oil broke the psychological barrier of $100 a barrel earlier this year, pushing gas prices up, many wondered whether the run-up was happening now.

Tom Kloza, a senior oil analyst at Oil Price Information Service, doesn’t think “the big move in gasoline” will happen in the next six weeks. Normally motorist demand for gas is traditionally “soft” during this period, he told me in an e-mail. While spring will see gas peak, the big question is: What’s the starting point for the jump? For us here in Washington, Kloza thinks the “launching pad” for that ramp-up will be slightly below prices earlier this year — so just above $3.

We’d like to hear from you: Are you changing driving habits because of gas prices? Do you think regular unleaded will hit $4? What’s the cheapest gas in your neighborhood?

UPDATE (4:30 p.m.): Kloza just emailed me his latest post on his Speaking of Oil blog. Every “nook and cranny” in the country will see lower prices in the next few weeks, but he believes “the entire country could see a spring peak of $3.50 gal or higher.”