6 Executive Summary Climate change is expected to trigger more frequent and more fierce storms, floods, landslides, forest fires, temperature extremes and droughts, and developing countries will bear the brunt of these blows. These countries are home to poor populations who live and work in floodplains, mountainsides and deltas. When disaster strikes, they lose their homes, crops and livelihoods. Most countries have adaptation plans to shore up the resilience of communities, but they fail to make forests part of the equation. Forests must be part of adaptation plans because they, too, are vulnerable, and they play a key role in reducing society s vulnerability to losses from climate change. More than a billion people depend on forests for some part of their livelihoods, and CIFOR research has revealed that households in and around forests derive an average of 24% of their income from forests. Forests provide basic needs such as food and building materials, as well as spiritual nourishment through recreation and indigenous traditions. Forests also save lives by storing clean water, preventing landslides in the mountains, and protecting against storms on coasts. However, the levels of tropical deforestation and forest degradation is driving the loss of biological diversity and impairing ecosystem function. With growing populations needs for food and income, poorly managed harvesting and gathering of timber and other products from forests can exacerbate the problem. CIFOR has designed a five-year initiative of research and action to reduce climate change-related risks through improved forest management, and to exploit the synergies between forest-based adaptation and mitigation strategies. The initiative would link policy analysis, vulnerability assessment, adaptation planning, research support to local initiatives, and knowledge dissemination to contribute to the inclusion of forests in adaptation policies and plans. Activities would focus on Southeast Asia, Central America, and Sub-Saharan Africa. Impacts would be achieved through influencing the decisions of forest managers, project developers, national policymakers, negotiators, scientists, and financiers. Healthy, diverse forests and adaptive institutions to manage them can ensure that landscapes and the people who depend on them for their livelihoods are more fit to survive fluctuations in rainfall and temperatures and to evolve and thrive in a new climate. iv

7 1 Background and rationale The Earth has warmed by 0.7 C over the past century, brewing a more turbulent blend of storms, floods, landslides, temperature extremes and droughts 1, and developing countries from drought-stricken East Africa to tropical storm-plagued Asia Pacific are bearing the brunt of the misfortune. In 2011, natural disasters caused a record US$380 billion in economic losses. The most expensive devastation was from the earthquakes in Japan and New Zealand, but much of the ruin was from Africa s drought, and floods in Thailand, Cambodia, Namibia and Brazil. With weak institutions and economic conditions, developing countries are home to the most vulnerable populations, who often live and work in impoverished and high-risk areas such as floodplains, mountainsides and deltas. When disaster strikes, they lose their homes, crops and livelihoods. They become malnourished and sick, with women, children and the disabled often the first to succumb. One of the greatest challenges of this generation is to shore up the resilience of communities, ecosystems and sensitive sectors namely water, agriculture and energy to anticipate and weather these climate change-triggered blows, adapt to the new conditions, and thrive. The Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR) is developing adaptation solutions based on the intricate link between human and forest survival. Most countries already have adaptation plans and projects, but they fail to take forests into consideration. In a world where more than a billion people depend on forests for some portion of their livelihoods, this oversight is a grave mistake. Forests are critical to climate change adaptation policies and projects for two reasons: first, because they, too, are vulnerable, and second, because they play a key role in reducing society s vulnerability to losses from climate change. Our twin goals are to ensure that forestry policy and practice protect forest-dependent livelihoods from the adversities of climate change, and to ensure that adaptation strategies incorporate improved forest management so as to harness forest-based ecosystem services to enhance the resilience of other economically important sectors. 1 IPCC Climate change Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. M.L. Parry et al. (eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK 1

8 Forests provide basic needs such as food, firewood and building materials, as well as spiritual nourishment for humanity through tourism and recreation, education and indigenous traditions 2. Forests also save lives by storing clean water, preventing erosion and landslides in the mountains, and protecting against storms and waves on coasts. However, the levels of deforestation and forest degradation across most tropical countries is driving the loss of biological diversity and impairing ecosystem function. With growing populations needs for food and income, poorly managed harvesting and gathering of timber and other products from forests can exacerbate the problem. The concept of managing forests so that they can continue to provide services for which the term ecosystem-based adaptation has been coined remains relatively new, and while it has the potential to strengthen adaptation strategies, more research is needed to understand when, where and for what problems such an approach would be most effective and efficient. Healthy, diverse forests ensure that landscapes and the people who depend on them for their livelihoods are more fit to survive fluctuations in rainfall and temperatures and to evolve and thrive in a new climate. 2 Millennium Ecosystem Assessment People and ecosystems: a framework for assessment and action. Island Press, Washington, DC 2

9 2 Objectives CIFOR aims to contribute to the appropriate inclusion of forests in local, national and international plans and policies for climate change adaptation in developing countries. Our research emphasizes sustainable use and management of the forest as a means of reducing disaster and climate change-related risks, alleviating poverty and improving human well-being. It also recognizes and makes the most of any benefits from linking adaptation strategies with climate change mitigation. 2.1 Specific objectives 1. Policy analysis: To analyze national and international policies on climate change adaptation and forests, and the roles and interests of various stakeholders at the national level; 2. Vulnerability assessment: To assess the current and future vulnerability of communities in selected sites, with a focus on the links between forests and the reduction of social vulnerability; 3. Adaptation planning: To assess ecosystem-based approaches to adaptation and the synergies between adaptation and mitigation in local initiatives and national policies; 4. Action and support: To support, with scientific research, the implementation of local initiatives and the development of policies for climate change adaptation, recognizing the benefits of linking adaptation and mitigation; and 5. Communications: To disseminate knowledge, build capacity and strengthen networks of the stakeholders involved in climate change adaptation and forest management. 3

10 3 Geographical target areas The project will be conducted in Southeast Asia, Central America and West, East and Central Africa. Figure 1. Areas most affected by flooding, in terms of mortality or economic losses Southeast Asia Southeast Asia has suffered immensely from climate change-related disasters (Figure 1), with developing countries small islands and low-lying coastal areas where population density is high and capacity to adapt is low being particularly susceptible to storms, waves and rising sea levels. In Indonesia, half of the population lives along the coast, and in the Philippines, that figure rises to 60% of the population. The impacts of climate change on coasts are exacerbated by manmade pressures, such as the degradation of wetlands and coral reefs. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, land use changes in catchments are also increasing social vulnerability in coastal areas. Our research in Southeast Asia will focus on the vulnerability of coastal areas and the role of ecosystem services in adaptation and disaster risk reduction. Target countries: Indonesia and the Philippines. 3 Natural Disaster Hotspots - A Global Risk Analysis (raster data set downloaded from: 4

11 Figure 2. Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI) over land regions of the World calculated from 20 climate models and 3 emission scenarios Central America The forecast for Central America a hotspot for tropical climate change is a combination of less and more unpredictable rainfall (Figure 2). Most economic sectors in the region agriculture, energy and infrastructure are highly sensitive to water supply problems. Research here will home in on the vulnerability of communities to water issues and the role of watershed ecosystem services in adaptation. The vulnerability of forests to climate change and adaptation measures for forests will also be a research priority for this region. Many Central American countries have implemented policies and innovative mechanisms for environmental conservation, such as payments for environmental services. Governments, regional bodies (such as the Central American Commission for Environment and Development, CCAD) and civil society organizations have shown great interest in including adaptation in their conservation agendas. Target countries: Costa Rica, Honduras and Nicaragua. 3.3 West, East and Central Africa Africa has long suffered and learned coping strategies to deal with compounded hardships poverty, political instability and climate change crises such as drought (Figures 3 and 4). Many of those strategies are based on ecosystems for example, CIFOR scientists in Malawi found that forests are important for reactive coping, 5 providing non-timber edible products for poor households and livestock when crops fail and pastures are parched. They also bolster incomes through non-timber forest products, such as charcoal production. 4 Giorgi, F., Climate change hot-spots. Geophysical Research Letters 33(8), L Fisher M., Chaudhury M., McCusker B., Do Forests Help Rural Households Adapt to Climate Variability? Evidence from Southern Malawi. World Development 38(9):

12 However, the use of forests as a safety net has put growing pressure on forests during dry years 6, according to a CIFOR study from Mali, pointing to a growing need for improved forest governance to harness the potential of forests for adaptation. Central Africa is a key region for climate change mitigation opportunities (Figure 5). Furthermore, high levels of poverty and a medium level of vulnerability to climate change justify action on adaptation (Figure 3). For this reason, our research here will focus on the synergies between adaptation and mitigation. Target countries: Mali and Burkina Faso in West Africa; Uganda and Tanzania in East Africa; and Cameroon, Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of Congo, Congo, and Gabon in Central Africa. Figure 3. National climate poverty density index 7 Figure 4. Areas most affected by drought, in terms of mortality or economic losses 8 6 Djoudi H., Brockhaus M., Locatelli B., forthcoming. Vulnerability to climate variability and change among communities depending on livestock and forest in Northern Mali: a multi-level analysis. Submitted to: Regional Environmental Change 7 The climate poverty density index aggregates the national climate change index with the percentage of each nation s population living on less than two international dollars per day (from Diffenbaugh, N.S. et al Indicators of 21st century socioclimatic exposure. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 104(51): ) 8 Natural Disaster Hotspots - A Global Risk Analysis (raster data set downloaded from: 6

14 4 Impacts As climate change triggers ever more storms, disasters and crises around the world, it is urgent that scientists find solutions that can guide and influence decision makers and societies toward sustainable, resilient development. CIFOR aims to delve into these issues, and generate relevant scientific knowledge that we will share with a broad array of partners public, private, nongovernmental and academic working with forests and climate change, as well as new institutions charged with improving governance and investment in the forest and related sectors. Our research intends to affect global and national policies and practices on the ground to benefit forests and the people living with them (Annex I). It will contribute to reducing deforestation and forest degradation, improving livelihood benefits from forests, and increasing the resilience of society and ecosystems to climate change. The livelihoods of poor, rural forest-dependent communities will become improved and resilient. Countries will benefit from ecosystem services and improved governance. And people and forests around the world will be more resilient, increasing global security. Every year, countries around the world are being hit by a growing number of disasters of previously unimaginable proportions. Nations and governments are now looking for solutions and ways to save lives. Our research team will work with key stakeholders to move toward achieving these goals. 4.1 Impact pathway 1: Forest managers, project developers Our research results are intended for stakeholders from public, private, non-governmental and community-based agencies that manage forests or develop adaptation or mitigation projects. Our work will help them design effective, efficient and equitable ecosystem-based adaptation projects. 8

15 4.2 Impact pathway 2: National policymakers Government ministries and agencies particularly those involved in forests, climate change mitigation and adaptation, and governance can use our research to shape their decisions. Our research will support and inform policymakers to formulate, implement and evaluate mitigation and adaptation policies. 4.3 Impact pathway 3: Negotiators for multilateral environmental agreements Negotiators and policymakers involved in forest- and climate change-related multilateral environmental agreements need the right information on how to include ecosystem-based adaptation. A policy science dialogue will enable our team to anticipate the challenges of forthcoming negotiations and provide policymakers with helpful and timely information. 4.4 Impact pathway 4: Scientists Our research is useful for scientists and international panels such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the future Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) that consolidate or synthesize findings for regional and global reports. 4.5 Impact pathway 5: International adaptation funding Foundations, donors, and development banks that support adaptation will use our work to inform their decisions on funding for adaptation projects in the forestry sector, and ecosystem-based adaptation projects that benefit communities, countries and the local and global environments. 4.6 Impact pathway 6: REDD+ funding and carbon markets Our research can inform managers of funds supporting REDD+, carbon, forestry and agriculture; those who regulate and develop international standards for carbon markets and projects; and private sector buyers of carbon credits. Our research will help them understand the challenges of adaptation and will facilitate the implementation of adaptation-mitigation projects. 9

16 5 Project design and implementation This project is multi-disciplinary, analyzing interactions between social systems and ecosystems through the lenses of natural, social and political sciences. The multi-disciplinary approach will allow for a holistic analysis of livelihood activities (forestry, agriculture, livestock and fisheries) and ecosystems (forests, mangroves and agroforestry systems). Cross-sectoral linkages are crucial because ecosystem-based adaptation will require integrating various sectors, for example those that manage ecosystems and those that benefit from ecosystem services. Where relevant (for example in coastal areas), disaster risk reduction and adaptation policies will be interlinked, a pairing up that is mutually beneficial but that has rarely been done thus far. 5.1 Project components The above objectives correspond to five project components (PC), as shown in Figure 6. Scientific activities are included in PC1, PC2, and PC3. Under PC4, the project will support selected adaptation initiatives at the local level and policy processes at the national level. We will conduct capacity building and communications under PC5. After posting a call for initiatives, we will select development or conservation projects that include adaptation activities and contribute to the synergies between adaptation and mitigation. We will provide the selected initiatives with technical, scientific and financial support. PC1 (policy) PC2 (vulnerability) PC3 (adaptation) Science (analysis of the role of ecosystem services, policy analysis, data, methods and tools ) Communication (to practitioners, NGOs, policymakers, government, academic ) Support to selected adaptation initiatives and policy processes (training, scientific, technical, and financial support) PC4 (action) PC5 (communication) Figure 6. Project components 10

17 The PCs have been designed to ensure we achieve the expected overall objectives and impacts. For instance, the policy analysis component (PC1) will identify the specific needs of key stakeholders and policy processes and these will inform the other PCs. The results of the first three project components will be transferred to stakeholders through PC4 and to a larger audience through PC5. Capacity building and communication (PC5) are crucial in this project and will involve a large range of stakeholders. The project will encompass a sequence of activities from policy analysis to vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning (Figure 7). First, policy analyses will identify key policy processes and stakeholders at the national and sub-national level (PC1). Then we will assess the vulnerabilities of people and ecosystems to climate change in selected sites (PC2), with a focus on the links between social and ecological systems. This will be followed by adaptation planning at the local level (PC3), and the development of strategic adaptation plans and policy recommendations. These strategic plans will include vulnerability monitoring and mid-course adjustment (PC4). Policy review, Policy network analysis, Institutional mapping National Policy analysis (PC1) Key stakeholders Key processes Subnational Vulnerability assessment (PC2) Situation analysis Adaptation plans (PC3) Adaptation options Local Ecosystem analysis Livelihood analysis Evaluation Current vulnerability Future scenarios Future vulnerability Adaptation strategic plans Implementation (through PC4) Interactions Sequential order Figure 7. Relationships between activities in PC1, 2 and 3 The project approach is participatory and oriented to the needs of local and national stakeholders. The early identification of key policy processes and stakeholders, and analysis of stakeholder needs will facilitate a policy-science dialogue and ensure that the project outputs are relevant to the stakeholders. Each part of the project will also give special attention to women, who suffer disproportionately from climate change, and have an important role to play in adaptation. Despite a wealth of studies demonstrating women s crucial role in managing forests and community or household resources, their contributions remain undervalued and underappreciated. From women s participation and representation, to gender inequalities and vulnerabilities, we will analyze their role and include them in the strategies, policies and initiatives. Below are details of the research activities and the questions to be addressed. 11

18 PC1. Policy analysis Broad research questions Methods Examples of outputs How can international and national policies and funding mechanisms facilitate the design and implementation of adaptation initiatives that reduce the vulnerability of people and ecosystems? What governance mechanisms are most effective in enhancing the adaptive capacity of socio-ecological systems? What are the opportunities and modalities for linking mitigation and adaptation in international and national policies? Stakeholder analysis Discourse analysis Network analysis Institutional mapping Analysis of the effects of international decisions on adaptation and funding modalities and their effectiveness, equity and efficiency; Comparative analysis of the effects of national policies and processes (e.g., decentralization, tenure reform, agricultural policies, energy policies, trade and investment) on the vulnerability of people and ecosystems to climate change. Guidelines for improving national policies to strengthen local adaptive capacity in different contexts; Guidelines on incorporating adaptation into forest policies and forests into adaptation policies. Assessment of the political economy of mitigation and adaptation trade-offs; Recommendations of institutional and financial mechanisms for fostering the synergies between mitigation and adaptation (e.g., through pro-poor payments for multiple ecosystem services). PC2. Vulnerability assessment Broad research questions Methods Examples of outputs What is the vulnerability of Livelihoods analysis; forest-dependent people to Participatory methods (such as historical climate change in relation to timelines) and life stories, participatory other drivers of change? diagnosis 11, other tools and methods proposed by the Adaptation Policy Framework developed by UNDP. What is the role of ecosystem services in reducing social vulnerability? How will climate change affect forests, the biodiversity they contain and the ecosystem services they provide? Analysis of livelihoods, life stories and coping strategies during shocks; Participatory mapping and ecological field surveys for assessing ecosystem services; Tools for modeling the interactions between ecosystems and socioeconomic systems (causal models and Bayesian belief networks). Modeling with climate scenarios and ecosystem models (e.g. SVAT models: Soil Vegetation Atmosphere Transfers), and data mining. Comparative assessment of past and current local adaptive strategies and coping responses of local communities to climate variability and change, in interaction with other socioeconomic and political drivers of vulnerability; Comparative analysis of how local and national institutions affect the adaptive capacity of local communities. Comparative analysis of the role of ecosystems in reducing the vulnerability of local communities and the broader society to climate change; Best practices for studying the coupled dynamics of social and ecological systems and integrating knowledge from different disciplines and stakeholders (e.g., knowledge-based modeling, linking advanced simulation models with cognitive maps, agent-based modeling). Assessments of climate change impacts on ecosystems (e.g., increases in forest fires and storms, shifts in pests and diseases, changes in ecosystem composition); Assessment of the resilience of forest ecosystems to climate change, taking into account the combined effect of other threats (e.g., over- harvesting, landscape fragmentation, exotic species, pathogens). 11 Mills et al., 2009 Vulnerability in African small-scale fishing communities. Journal of International Development 26:

19 PC3. Adaptation planning Broad research questions Methods Examples of outputs What institutional and technical measures (e.g., institutional reforms, technical measures and ecosystem management) can be designed for reducing social vulnerability? Scenario development using a participatory backcasting approach, 12 whereby stakeholders identify what steps are necessary to avoid undesirable futures or to enable desirable ones; What measures can be designed for reducing ecosystem vulnerability? How can the synergies between mitigation and adaptation in sub-national initiatives be increased? Analysis of scenarios in terms of their effectiveness (e.g., for vulnerability reduction, achievement of human well-being and poverty alleviation), efficiency, equity, sustainability and co-benefits (including carbon sequestration, as these cobenefits may represent an opportunity for funding ecosystem-based measures); Analysis of trade-offs; Multi-criteria analysis of adaptation options; Cost-benefit assessment of adaptation options. Biophysical modeling; Cross-scale and participatory assessment of the feasibility of the proposed measures. Best practices (e.g., combining agent-based modeling and participatory assessment) to define and analyze future scenarios and pathways for mitigation and adaptation under different climate, policy and socioeconomic conditions and identify the measures necessary to avoid undesirable outcomes or enable desirable ones. Analysis of the trade-offs between different adaptation options (ecosystembased and other measures) and between different land uses for social adaptation Recommendations on how to design societal adaptation with ecosystem-based measures and other measures Assessment of the current and future costs and benefits of different adaptation options. Decision support tools for managing ecosystem services in ecosystem-based adaptation; Guidelines for identifying and implementing adaptation options for forests, including landscape-scale measures (e.g., biological corridors) or forest management measures (e.g., improved planting or harvesting techniques); Methods for assessing the effectiveness of adaptation measures for ecosystems (e.g., assessing the effect of biological corridors to facilitate species migration). Recommendations on how to include adaptation in REDD+ initiatives for increasing social and ecological resilience; Guidelines for assessing the contribution of ecosystem-based adaptation measures to mitigation and facilitating access of ecosystem-based adaptation projects to funding for mitigation; Global synthesis of findings on the tradeoffs and synergies between mitigation and adaptation in forest-related sub-national and local initiatives; Guidelines to improve the design of mitigation and adaptation initiatives, in terms of institutions (e.g., funding and local governance arrangements) and techniques. PC4. Action and support The project will identify local partners (such as development NGOs with field experience) that have ongoing programs and the interest and capacity to develop adaptation activities with technical and financial support from our team. This partnership will enable us to have an impact in the field and facilitate access to research sites. It will also boost partners technical and scientific skills, and provide them and their project with financial support from adaptation or mitigation funding. 12 Carlsson-Kanyama A., et al., Participative backcasting: a tool for involving stakeholders in local sustainability planning. Futures 40:

20 Climate change adaptation policies and initiatives are relatively new and evolving rapidly, so capacity building is built into our project. At the local level, building the capacity of stakeholders managing forests or designing and implementing development and climate change projects will facilitate the development of adaptation initiatives. These include people from the public and private sectors, civil society organizations, and communities. At the national level, we will provide support and train policymakers involved in forests and climate change, as well as negotiators of multilateral environmental agreements. In many developing countries, scientists face barriers such as a lack of access to climate data to effectively managing and using relevant information, methods and data on climate change. We will organize workshops in the field about ecosystem services, climate change, adaptation and disaster risk reduction. Practitioners, academics and graduate students will learn methods and tools to carry out vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning. PC5. Communications Effective and targeted communications are key to the success of the project. Accordingly, a significant proportion of the budget has been allocated to this task. We will disseminate knowledge and results, and build networks of stakeholders to ensure the visibility of the project as a means to amplify its impact. The project will develop a dynamic and interactive multilingual Internet platform on ecosystem-based adaptation, linked to the sites of other organizations working on adaptation issues in order to enable the site to be updated rapidly, interactively, and dynamically as knowledge evolves. The platform will utilize Listserv, blogs and Wiki tools. All project participants including trainees will be involved in developing the platform. Forums will be established to enable cross-country interactions and exchanges of experience, and will be open to interested people beyond the target countries for the project. We aim to share information about the project and the issues of adaptation, ecosystem services and human well-being. An audience analysis will be conducted at the beginning of the project with support from local and international partners. Information packages in a variety of formats and tailored to target audiences will include policy briefs, information briefs, scientific publications, displays and side events at international scientific events, adaptation stories, video, radio, and web reports. Recognizing the central role that mass media plays in setting the policy agenda, reporting progress and holding policy makers to account, we will work directly with the media in target countries and more widely. We will invite journalists to learn about and report key issues through workshops with technical experts and media field trips. A media tool kit on adaptation to climate change will be developed, and will include print, photo, video and audio resources. We will seek partnerships with major media for development organizations (such as Panos, Television Trust for the Environment, BBC World Service Trust, and the EC Futuris TV magazine) to explore opportunities for using mainstream broadcasting networks to disseminate project results and messages. We will also organize workshops and information campaigns with local schools, assemblies and civil society organizations using appropriate media, such as games, drama and posters. The information campaigns will be participatory: local people will be taught how to create their own information strategies and tools, enabling them to become agents of change in their community. 14

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