MBS Week Ahead: At Risk of Reentering Old Range, But Not Without a Fight

For bond markets, most of 2017 has been dominated by the "post-election range" (or "the 2017 range," if you prefer) consisting of 10yr yields between roughly 2.3 and 2.6%. Fiscal policy roadblocks in late March and geopolitical concerns in April helped yields break below that range. Yesterday's French election was one of the on-again-off-again geopolitical concerns driving a portion of the rally. In a nutshell , there were 2 anti-establishment candidates (with Marine Le Pen being the "scariest" choice for financial markets) and one status-quo politician. The status quo politician was/is good for stocks and bad for bonds. Le Pen was/is good for bonds because she would have created uncertainty about France's future in the EU. Le Pen technically still has…(read more)