Newer Thoughts on Probability

Well, it’s been quite some time since the original thread on dice probability for d10 Core, and the website move earlier this year caused my pretty graphs to go away. So, I had to make them again. While making them again, I decided to make different ones that more closely illustrate what I’m going for with the system.

Sit back, relax, and enjoy your soda and popcorn. Let’s get started!

First, considering a dice system like d10 Core is complicated. Rather than summing all the sides and getting a number, each side of the die is important because that number is compared to the enemy’s dice. Whoever has the highest roll on each set, comparing highest to highest down the line, wins in each pair. Whoever has the most hits wins the task check, and the winner subtract’s the loser’s hits to get the number of hits he had over the enemy.

So, if I have 3 dice and roll 10, 9, 8, and my friend Bob rolls 3 dice and gets 9, 9, 7, I beat him twice and tie once. Since he didn’t win any, I got two “hits” on the task, which adds to damage or makes it more spectacular than just a regular success.

Let’s take a look at the first chart:

Result Probabilities on a d10

This chart shows the probability of rolling a 1 through 10 on a d10 at least one time on any of the dice you roll. On 1 die, it’s obviously harder because you only have one die to roll, and the probability curves downward as you add more die with an expectation of a higher roll on the die. The noticeable down-trend for all dice begins at 6, so the next chart talks a little bit about the “high rolls”, 7-10.

Expectation of a higher result on given dice

As we can see, moving the requirement of a higher roll (more likely to win in any given task) takes things down a notch. One of the most important features of this chart is that it demonstrates visually the disparity between one die and five dice of returning a high number on any one. With a 30% chance difference between 1 die and 5 dice, this indicates that someone rolling 1 die against even 5 dice still has a chance; it guarantees the system does not have “impossible” situations, and it also guarantees that no task can be reduced so far that it becomes boring, trivial, and silly. People with more dice still have a clear advantage than those with less, but no side is an automatic winner – a feature that I disliked in most games I’ve played as characters get more powerful.

Which brings us to the final chart. The following starts at a minimum of three dice – a decent amount of dice for a brand-new character just starting out for any given roll. The chart shows disparity between 3, 4, and 5 dice rolls were at least 3 faces must show up as the result or higher.

At least 3 dice roll high numbers

Right on target. A person rolling 3 dice has a 6% chance to roll at least 7 or higher on each face in a single roll, while a person with 5 dice has a 31.74% chance to roll at least 7 on at least 3 of their dice. The disparity is 25%, well within the realm of possibility of making it so higher-dice players don’t automatically decimate everything they see. The gaps close much faster at each increment of the expected result on at least 3 dice, becoming within 1% of each other at a result of 10.

When Laedron Telpist’s sorcery training is interrupted by a knock on the door, what once seemed a proper profession must now be hidden. In a world where priests and mages vie for the limitless power of the elements and a new Grand Vicar has sworn death to all sorcerers, Laedron is tossed into a nightmare which would see his destruction at every turn.

From the home shores in western Sorbia, through the Cael’Brilland heartlands, and even across the seas to the great city of Azura, Laedron finds himself embracing old friends, consorting with unlikely allies, and confronting potent enemies. As he struggles to train himself in spellcraft, Laedron must face that he lives in a time when the utterance of a simple spell could be the signature on his death warrant.

Having arrived in the Holy Land, Laedron Telpist continues his journey to halt a war provoked by the Heraldan church. He discovers that the war he so desperately wants to stop is merely a prelude to something much older than he could have imagined. With the aid of his allies, Laedron must uncover hidden plots, bring justice to the rampant corruption, and end a conflict before it claims more victims.

Laedron, his friends, and the Shimmering Dawn knights face off against new foes, some willing to trade their loyalty for power and the ancient secrets of spellcraft and others more dangerous than outward appearances would suggest.

Laedron hasn’t been able to sleep for a week, yet he feels fresh and invigorated. He heals at an extraordinary rate, and finds that his hunger is satisfied by only a few morsels of food each day. Enhanced by the use of a soulstone, a vicar’s restoration spell has done much more than cure Laedron’s wounds, and a book with no name might be the key to discovering why. Unfamiliar with the deep implications of the magic behind his newfound abilities, he feels like his life is spinning out of control, and he must know the truth.

Laedron leads his companions to a land of vast pine forests to learn more of his condition, for the book mentions some of his symptoms and hints at the oldest secrets of mages. When he arrives in Lasoron, a strange old woman points him in the direction of the ancient ruins of Myrdwyer to uncover the answers he so desperately seeks.

An old feud, a host of soul-sucking enemies, and a madman bent on revenge stand between him and the answers he hopes to find, but he soon learns that some secrets are better left unknown to mortals.

The Mages of Bloodmyr Omnibus

United States
[a href=”http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B008MTN1GQ/ref=as_li_ss_tl?ie=UTF8&camp=1789&creative=390957&creativeASIN=B005YIR9E8&linkCode=as2&tag=s_amz_r_55-20″]Amazon US Kindle[/a]
[a href=”http://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/the-mages-of-bloodmyr-omnibus-brian-kittrell/1112164222?ean=2940014970204″]Barnes & Noble US Nook[/a]

The Mages of Bloodmyr Omnibus: A Collection of Epic Fantasy Novels includes all of the books of the Mages of Bloodmyr series: The Circle of Sorcerers, The Consuls of the Vicariate, and The Immortals of Myrdwyer.

Altogether, the Mages of Bloodmyr Omnibus is approximately 230,000 words.

###

The Circle of Sorcerers, Book #1 (81,000 words), Product Description:

When Laedron Telpist’s sorcery training is interrupted by a knock on the door, what once seemed a proper profession must now be hidden. In a world where priests and mages vie for the limitless power of the elements and a new Grand Vicar has sworn death to all sorcerers, Laedron is tossed into a nightmare which would see his destruction at every turn.

From the home shores in western Sorbia, through the Cael’Brilland heartlands, and even across the seas to the great city of Azura, Laedron finds himself embracing old friends, consorting with unlikely allies, and confronting potent enemies. As he struggles to train himself in spellcraft, Laedron must face that he lives in a time when the utterance of a simple spell could be the signature on his death warrant.

###

The Consuls of the Vicariate, Book #2 (73,000 words), Product Description:

Having arrived in the Holy Land, Laedron Telpist continues his journey to halt a war provoked by the Heraldan church. He discovers that the war he so desperately wants to stop is merely a prelude to something much older than he could have imagined. With the aid of his allies, Laedron must uncover hidden plots, bring justice to the rampant corruption, and end a conflict before it claims more victims.

Laedron, his friends, and the Shimmering Dawn knights face off against new foes, some willing to trade their loyalty for power and the ancient secrets of spellcraft and others more dangerous than outward appearances would suggest.

###

The Immortals of Myrdwyer, Book #3 (75,000 words), Product Description:

Laedron hasn’t been able to sleep for a week, yet he feels fresh and invigorated. He heals at an extraordinary rate, and finds that his hunger is satisfied by only a few morsels of food each day. Enhanced by the use of a soulstone, a vicar’s restoration spell has done much more than cure Laedron’s wounds, and a book with no name might be the key to discovering why. Unfamiliar with the deep implications of the magic behind his newfound abilities, he feels like his life is spinning out of control, and he must know the truth.

Laedron leads his companions to a land of vast pine forests to learn more of his condition, for the book mentions some of his symptoms and hints at the oldest secrets of mages. When he arrives in Lasoron, a strange old woman points him in the direction of the ancient ruins of Myrdwyer to uncover the answers he so desperately seeks.

An old feud, a host of soul-sucking enemies, and a madman bent on revenge stand between him and the answers he hopes to find, but he soon learns that some secrets are better left unknown to mortals.

Nadene Schafer never imagined a world plagued with the walking dead, and when she becomes infected with the virus, she wonders how much time she has left amongst the living.

A missile attack by the African arm of the terrorist organization known as Six releases a virus on the eastern United States and its allies. In the blink of an eye, the virus infects more than forty million Americans. The disease transforms the infected into cannibalistic monsters and spreads through the countryside like wildfire.

Nadene hopes that she can use her strange new abilities to help her friends to safety before the virus takes her life. With the living dead lurching around every street corner, the survivors are left with only two options: risk leaving their safe places to escape or remain hidden with no hope of rescue. In this new world, death watches from every shadow, waiting to sate its hunger on the tender flesh of the careless.