Weekly Fundamentals - Bernanke Sent Signals of Unconventional Easing

Financial markets soared on Friday after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's speech in the Jackson Hole Symposium. Although the Chairman did not state whether QE3 will be announced in September, his speech was dovish enough to indicate that further easing would be implemented later in the year. Throughout the week, strength in crude oil prices reduced. Indeed both WTI and Brent crude retreated after previous rallies. Impacts of Hurricane Isaac on oil facilities in the Gulf of Mexico were limited while the US retained the option to release oil form the SPR in case of emergency. These upstaged news that Iran reiterated its stance that the Middle East country would continue its nuclear activities. Gold moved within a range for most of the time last week, only to resume the recent rally after Bernanke's statement on Friday. The upward momentum would need to be sustained by announcements (or speculations) of further quantitative easing measures as physical demand remained rather sluggish.

The theme of this year's Jackson Hole is "Monetary Policy Since the Crisis". Regarding this, Chairman Ben Bernanke stated that "the hurdle for using nontraditional policies should be higher than for traditional policies. At the same time, the costs of nontraditional policies, when considered carefully, appear manageable, implying that we should not rule out the further use of such policies if economic conditions warrant", While investors concerned that recent improvement in economic data would delay additional easing, Bernanke stated that "notwithstanding these positive signs, the economic situation is obviously far from satisfactory". The entire speech indicated that Bernanke is still in favor of further unconventional policies.

Crude Oil: Friday's rally saved crude oil prices and led the front-month WTI and Brent contract to gain +0.33% and +0.86% respectively. Hurricane Isaac passed the Gulf of Mexico but no reports of actual damage have yet been recorded. However, the market should remain cautious on near-term oil supply as a large number of domestic production facilities have been shutdown on voluntary basis. Moreover, an explosion occurred in Venezuela's Amuay oil refinery which is responsible for output of 645K bpd. It remains skeptical although the government said that the refinery will be restarted a few days later.

Natural Gas: Nymex natural gas price gained +3.595 last week. According to the DOE/EIA, natural gas storage increased 66 bcf to 3 374 bcf in the week ended August 24. Stocks were +429 bcf higher than the same period last year and +361 bcf above the 5-year average of 3 013 bcf. Separately, Baker Hughes reported that the number of gas rigs fell -13 units to 473 in the week ended August 30. Oil rigs gained +11 units to 1 419 and miscellaneous rigs dipped -2 unit to 2 and the total number of rigs was down -4 units to 1 894 units. Directionally oriented combined oil, gas, and miscellaneous rigs slipped -1 units to 219 units while horizontal rigs decreased-10 units to 1 149 and vertical rigs gained +7 units to 526 during the week.

Precious Metals: Gold gained +0.89% while silver added +2.50% last week. Recently, precious metals were lifted amid speculations that the Fed and the ECB would implement further unconventional measures soon. In coming weeks, gold's strength would continue to be dependent on QE3 speculations as physical demand would remain sluggish. Despite the festive season, demand for gold in India remained lackluster as prices remained at high level. Moreover, while monsoon rains recovered last week, harvest is still severely affected by the drought this year. This has greatly lowered purchasing power of people in India.

PGMs fell last week as news reported that some mine worked returned to work in South Africa. Indeed, labor actions in the mines have far from ended. Although Lonmin and government officials met on Wednesday to negotiate a possible resolution, no agreement has been made. Yet, it's hard for platinum prices to break resistance further as the relatively weak demand outlook would keep the noble metal in surplus this year.

NO PURCHASE OR PAYMENT NECESSARY TO ENTER OR WIN. A PURCHASE OR PAYMENT WILL NOT INCREASE YOUR CHANCES OF WINNING. The Giveaway is sponsored by IBT Media Inc., 7 Hanover Square, 5th Floor, New York, NY 10004 (“Sponsor”). The Giveaway is void where prohibited or restricted by all applicable law, and all applicable federal, state and local laws and regulations apply. Winners are responsible for any taxes, customs, and duties and like amounts connected with the prizes.

1. ELIGIBILITY. The Giveaway is open only to legal residents of the 50 states of the United States and the District of Columbia who are the age of majority in their respective jurisdiction at the time of entry (19 in AL and NE and 18 in all other states). Sponsor and its advertising or promotion agencies, those involved in the production, development, implementation or handling of this Giveaway, any agents acting for, or on behalf of Sponsor, its respective affiliates, subsidiaries, licensees, service providers, and any other person or entity associated with this Giveaway are referred to as the “Giveaway Entities.” Employees, officers, and directors of the Giveaway Entities and members of their immediate families (spouses, children, siblings, parents and their spouses), and/or persons living in the same household as such persons, whether or not related, are ineligible to enter this Giveaway.

2. PROMOTION ENTRY PERIOD: The Giveaway begins on July 1, 2015 at 12:00 a.m. EST and ends at 11:59:59 p.m. September 31, 2015 (the “Giveaway Period”). When applicable, the Sponsor’s computers will be deemed the official time keeping devices for the Giveaway promotion.

3. HOW TO ENTER. You will receive one entry into the random drawing for the Giveaway Period when you provide a verified e-mail through our designated modal window interface. Limit one (1) entry per person/email address. Multiple entries will be disqualified. All previous winners of any giveaway or contest sponsored by IBT Media are not eligible to enter. Any effort by an entrant to misrepresent himself or herself through the use of aliases or multiple e-mail addresses will disqualify that entrant. Registrations generated by a script, macro or other automated means are void. You must be the rightful owner of the email address provided. In the event of a dispute as to the identity of the winner, the winner will be deemed to be the authorized account holder of the email address provided at the time of entry. Entrants must provide all information requested to be eligible to win. Incomplete or unintelligible entries, in the sole discretion of Sponsor, will be disqualified. Sponsor will not verify receipt of entries and assumes no responsibility for late, lost, damaged, misidentified or misdirected entries.

4. PRIZE DRAWINGS AND NOTIFICATION OF CHOSEN ENTRANTS. A random drawing will be conducted by Sponsor on or about the first week following the Giveaway Period from among all eligible entries received to award one prize (described below). Selected entrants will be notified by email and will be required to respond (as directed) to the e-mail notification within 72 hours of attempted notification. Failure to respond timely to the notification may result in forfeiture of the prize. Selected entrants may also be required to complete an affidavit of eligibility and liability / publicity release (except where such a requirement is prohibited by law). If the completed Release is not returned within the time specified, the prize may be forfeited.

One (1) Prize per Giveaway Period: An Apple Watch Sport™, which is a registered trademark of Apple Inc. Approximate Retail Value: $349. Limit one (1) prize per person/household. No substitution, transfer, or cash equivalent for any prize, except that Sponsor, at its sole discretion, may substitute a prize with a prize of equal value, due to unavailability of advertised prize. Each prize will be awarded provided each prize is properly claimed. The prize will be shipped by Sponsor to the winners within 1-5 weeks of the receipt of a signed affidavit for approved entries. Prize winners are responsible for all taxes and fees related to any prize received. Actual retail value of prizes may vary due to market conditions. The difference in value of prize as stated herein and value at time of prize notification, if any, will not be awarded.

5. ODDS. The odds of winning a prize will depend on the number of eligible entries received for the Giveaway Period.

6. MARKETING AND PRIVACY. Information collected in connection with entries received for this Giveaway will be used for marketing purposes. By entering the Giveaway, entrants consent to receive marketing emails with updates, offers and promotions from Sponsor or third parties. Entrants may follow instructions contained in each subsequent email communication to opt-out of receiving future email communications, however, Sponsor may still use the email address provided to notify entrant if they have been selected as a winner of this Giveaway.

7. CONDITIONS FOR PARTICIPATION. Giveaway is subject to these Official Rules. By participating, entrants agree to be bound by these complete Official Rules. All decisions of Sponsor are final and binding; and entrants agree to waive any right to claim ambiguity in the Giveaway or these Official Rules, except where prohibited by law. In addition, each entrant represents and warrants that all information contained in his/her registration entry is true and accurate. By accepting a prize, winners agree to release, defend, indemnify and hold harmless the Sponsor, its attorneys, affiliates, together with the respective directors, employees, officers, licensees, licensors and agents of each, including without limitation, their respective advertising and promotion entities and any person or entity associated with the production, judging, or administration of the Giveaway (collectively, the “Releasees”) from any and all loss, damage, injury, death, or other liability, either at law or equity, whether known or unknown, asserted or non-asserted, arising from or in connection with awarding, receipt and/or use or misuse of prize or participation in the Giveaway. This Promotion shall be governed by, and construed in accordance with, the laws of the State of New York, regardless of conflicts of laws principles. Any action or litigation concerning this Promotion shall take place exclusively in the federal or state courts sitting in New York County, New York, and each entrant expressly and irrevocably consents to the jurisdiction of and venue in such courts and waives all defenses of lack of jurisdiction and inconvenient forum with respect to such courts. Each entrant agrees to service of process by mail or other method acceptable under the laws of the State of New York. ANY CLAIMS, JUDGMENTS AND/OR AWARDS SHALL BE LIMITED TO ACTUAL OUT-OF-POCKET COSTS ASSOCIATED WITH ENTERING THIS PROMOTION. REGISTERED CONTESTANT HEREBY WAIVES ANY RIGHTS OR CLAIMS TO ATTORNEY'S FEES, INDIRECT, SPECIAL, PUNITIVE, INCIDENTAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES OF ENTRANT, WHETHER FORESEEABLE OR NOT AND WHETHER BASED ON NEGLIGENCE OR OTHERWISE. EACH PARTY EXPRESSLY WAIVES ANY RIGHT TO A JURY. The releases hereunder are intended to apply to all claims not known or suspected to exist with the intent of waiving the effect of laws requiring the intent to release future unknown claims. This Giveaway is void outside the U.S. and where prohibited or restricted by law, and subject to applicable federal, state, and local laws. Sponsor reserves the right to disqualify any entrant it finds to be tampering with the entry process or the operation of the Giveaway or violating these Official Rules.

8. PUBLICITY AND RELEASE FORMS: Sponsor reserves the right to use the Giveaway for publicity purposes in any media, and to use the name, likeness, and hometown name and/or prize information of prize winners as part of that publicity, without any compensation or prior review, unless prohibited by law. Each prize winner will be required to submit a declaration and a liability/publicity release and confirmation that the prize winner has followed the rules of the Giveaway, in the form supplied by Sponsor (the "Declaration and Release"), and signed by the prize winner. The Declaration and Release must be signed and returned within seven (7) days of notification. Prize won by an eligible entrant who is a minor in his/her state of residence will be awarded to minor's parent or legal guardian who must sign and return all required documents. In the event the Affidavit and Release is not returned within this period, an alternate winner may be selected for such prize. Any prize notification or prize returned to Sponsor as undeliverable will result in the awarding of that prize to an alternate winner (who will be required to comply with similar procedures).

9. LIMITATION OF LIABILITIES: The Releasees shall not be liable for: (i) late, lost, delayed, stolen, misdirected, incomplete unreadable, inaccurate, garbled or unintelligible entries, communications or affidavits, regardless of the method of transmission; (ii) telephone system, telephone or computer hardware, software or other technical or computer malfunctions, lost connections, disconnections, delays or transmission errors; (iii) data corruption, theft, destruction, unauthorized access to or alteration of entry or other materials; (iv) any injuries, losses or damages of any kind caused by the prize or resulting from acceptance, possession or use of a prize, or from participation in the Giveaway; or (v) any printing, typographical, administrative or technological errors in any materials associated with the Giveaway. In the event that more prize notice emails are sent for any of the prizes than the number of prizes available as specified in these Official Rules, a random drawing will be conducted from all entrants who received such notices to award number of prizes specified in these Official Rules. Sponsor disclaims any liability for damage to any computer system resulting from participating in, or accessing or downloading information in connection with this Giveaway, and reserve the right, in their sole discretion, to cancel, modify or suspend the Giveaway should a virus, bug, fraud, computer problem, unauthorized intervention or other causes beyond Sponsor’s control, corrupt the administration, security or proper play of the Giveaway. Sponsor may prohibit an entrant from participating in the Giveaway or winning a prize if, in its sole discretion, it determines such entrant is attempting to undermine the legitimate operation of the Giveaway in any way by cheating, hacking, deception, or any other unfair playing practices of intending to annoy, abuse, threaten or harass any other players or Sponsor representatives. Use of any automated system to participate is strictly prohibited and will result in disqualification. Sponsor may disqualify at its sole discretion any entries it believes are created by an automated system or exceed the maximum of one entry per natural person/email address. Disputes regarding these Official Rules and/or this Giveaway will be governed by the internal laws of the State of New York, without regard to conflicts of laws principles. Any and all legal actions or claims arising in connection with this Giveaway must be brought in a court of competent jurisdiction within New York County, New York or, at Sponsor’s sole discretion, anywhere else in the United States. CAUTION: ANY ATTEMPT TO DELIBERATELY DAMAGE THE IBT MODAL WINDOW OR UNDERMINE THE LEGITIMATE OPERATION OF THE GIVEAWAY MAY BE IN VIOLATION OF CRIMINAL AND CIVIL LAWS AND WILL RESULT IN DISQUALIFICATION FROM PARTICIPATION IN THE GIVEAWAY. SHOULD SUCH AN ATTEMPT BE MADE, SPONSORS RESERVE THE RIGHT TO SEEK REMEDIES AND DAMAGES (INCLUDING ATTORNEY FEES) TO THE FULLEST EXTENT OF THE LAW, INCLUDING CRIMINAL PROSECUTION.

10. PRIVACY. Please refer to Sponsor’s privacy policy located at http://www.ibtimes.com/corporate/privacy for important information regarding the collection, use and disclosure of personal information by Sponsor.

11. WINNER LIST. For names of the winners, send your request in a self-addressed, stamped envelope to: The IBT Media Email Address Monthly Giveaway Winners List, 7 Hanover Square, 5th Floor, New York, NY 10004. Winner lists will be sent out once winners have been verified. The name of the all winners will be posted only for 30 days after the end of the Entry Period.

BY ENTERING, YOU AGREE THAT YOU HAVE READ AND ACCEPTED ALL OF THESE GIVEAWAY RULES.