Welcome to the best-of-three ALDS. The Yankees and Red Sox split the first two games of the series at Fenway Park — a good outcome for the Yankees, for sure — and now the series shifts to the Bronx for Game Three. It’s very simple: Win two games at home and set up an ALCS rematch against the obnoxiously good Astros.

Since the start of last postseason the Yankees are a perfect 7-0 in Yankee Stadium in the postseason and have outscored their opponents 42-14. 42-14! They’re built for their home ballpark. No doubt. The Yankee Stadium crowd is also the tenth man. The crowd’s been dynamite the last two postseasons and I think it’ll be even louder tonight.

“I think it’s going to be amazing. I really do,” said Aaron Boone yesterday about tonight’s crowd. “I think the connection that our fan base and our fans now have with our players is a special one … I thought the atmosphere against the A’s was special. I think there’s a potential that it could be even more so tomorrow night.”

The Yankees will start Luis Severino tonight and he pitched well in the Wild Card Game, though he only got through four innings plus two batters. Some more length would be nice tonight, but, as far as I’m concerned, the important thing is quality of the innings, not the quantity of the innings. Especially with the bullpen the Yankees have.

If you’re into projections and probabilities and all that, ZiPS has the Yankees as the slight favorite to win the series (53.6% vs. 46.4%) and a slighter favorite to win tonight (51.3% vs. 48.7%). Both these teams are so good, man. It’s hard for me to look at this series as anything other than a coin flip. The lineups:

It is cloudy and cool in New York tonight. Has been all day. Not the best baseball weather, but there’s no heavy rain in the forecast, and that’s all that matters. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm ET and you can watch on TBS and TBS.com. Enjoy the game.

Injury Update: Aaron Hicks (hamstring) is doing “considerably” better and is available tonight. Aaron Boone said he wanted to give Hicks one more day just because hamstrings are tricky.

Nathan Eovaldi has faced the Yankees three times since joining the Red Sox, and he has been nothing short of dominant. His overall line in those games is 16.0 IP, 6 H, 1 R (0 ER), 3 BB, and 13 K, and it may well have been better had he not been pulled after two effective innings on September 29 (it was effectively a means to keep him stretched-out in a meaningless game). We saw flashes of this sort of dominance before, but it was sporadic at best – and the fact that this has come with the Red Sox makes it even more maddening. But I digress.

Let’s take a look at this new and improved version of Eovaldi.

When Eovaldi last pitched for the Yankees in 2016, all of the talk was about maximizing his newfound splitter. The pitch was, for all intents and purposes, born in 2015, accounting for 9.4% of his offerings; the usage more than doubled in 2016 to 22.9% … and then his elbow went ‘boom.’ To that point, Eovaldi was basically a three-pitch guy, with his four-seamer, slider, and splitter. This year, however, we’ve seen the unveiling of another new-ish pitch: a cutter.

As per Brooks Baseball, Eovaldi threw a total of 220 cutters from 2011 through 2016; he threw 577 this year. His cutter represented just under a third of his offerings this year, and he threw fewer fastballs and sliders than ever before. And while batters are hitting .252 against the cutter, his four-seamer (.206) and slider (.219) have been at their most effective this year – and that may be attributed to the increased use of a pitch that essentially splits the difference between a four-seamer and a slider.

Eovaldi’s velocity remains elite, too. His four-seamer averaged 97.6 MPH this year, his cutter sat just over 93 MPH, and both his slider and splitter sit in the upper 80s.

So what, if anything, does he do differently against the Yankees?

Eovaldi’s splitter usage jumps out the most. He threw 213 pitches against the Yankees in his three Red Sox appearances, and just 9 of those (or 4.2%) were splitters. Compare that to an average of 12.8% overall, and it seems like a conscious decision by Eovaldi and/or the coaching staff. Those splitters were almost entirely replaced by cutters, which represented 39.0% of his offerings against the Yankees. Between that and his four-seamer, Eovaldi is throwing roughly 80% of his pitches at 93-plus MPH against the Yankees – and it’s been working.

It’s also worth noting that, by FanGraphs’ model, the Yankees are one of the worst teams in baseball at hitting the cutter. They ranked 25th in baseball against cutters, losing 7.2 more runs than the average team against it. And by that same metric, Eovaldi had the 9th-best cutter among starting pitchers, just behind CC Sabathia.

All that being said, it’s worth noting that Eovaldi’s approach in his lone start against the Yankees as a member of the Rays was largely the same – and the Yankees knocked him around for 8 hits and 5 runs in 7.1 IP. He improved as the season wore on, to be sure, and that was his fourth start after a nearly two-year layoff, but it hasn’t been all doom and gloom for the Yankees with him on the mound. And he hasn’t yet faced this fully operational offense in playoff atmosphere Yankee Stadium, either.

1. Remember how bad Judge was in the ALDS last year? He was historically awful. He went 1-for-20 (.050) with a double, four walks, and 16 strikeouts (!) in the five-game series against the Indians. That’s the most strikeouts by a single player in a postseason series in baseball history, including seven-game series. Judge was much better in the ALCS against the Astros (.250/.357/.708) and, this postseason, he’s been a monster. He is 7-for-12 (.583) thus far, and in all three postseason games he’s hit a home run and reached base three times. Judge is 12-for-29 (.414) with five walks (.500 OBP) and six homers (1.138 SLG) in his last eight postseason games dating back to ALCS Game Three last year. What a beast. Hard to believe we were all concerned about whether Judge would have his timing at the plate and adequate strength in his wrist after the injury. It wasn’t unreasonable to be concerned! Wrist injuries are tricky. Right now, it’s impossible to tell he was ever hurt. Judge had three 109+ mph batted balls in his first three at-bats in Game Two. MVP candidate Jose Ramirez had two 109+ mph batted balls all season. Judge is a unicorn, man. That size, that athleticism, that power, that leadership. He’s looking more and more like a once in a generation type, truly.

2. The talent and depth in the bullpen is insane. The guys the Red Sox have been trotting out there in middle relief do not compare to the guys the Yankees have been running out there. The depth has really stood out. The Yankees used four relievers to cover five innings in the Wild Card Game and they still had Chad Green and Jonathan Holder in reserve. Four relievers covered six innings in ALDS Game One and the Yankees didn’t use Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances, or Holder. Three relievers covered four innings in ALDS Game Two and the Yankees had David Robertson, Green, and Holder still available. That is nuts. Holder threw 66 innings with a 3.14 ERA (3.04 FIP) this season and was a rock solid middle innings reliever, and he hasn’t even warmed up in any of the three postseason games. When that dude is your sixth best reliever, you’re in great shape. The bullpen is incredibly deep and the built-in rest means the Yankees will have all those guys available pretty much every game. There are no A.J. Coles who need to soak up innings when others need rest, you know? The relievers still have to get outs, absolutely, but what an advantage the bullpen has been thus far. They protect leads and, when the Yankees are behind, they prevent the other team from adding on.

3. Eduardo Nunez, not Rafael Devers, has started at third base in the first two games of the ALDS, and Red Sox manager Alex Cora said it is because “we feel he’s been the better defensive player.” First and foremost, I’m pretty sure this is the first time anyone has said Nunez is in the starting lineup for his glove. Hard to believe. Secondly, there’s a parallel to the Gary Sanchez/Austin Romine situation here. Devers is, clearly, the more talented player and more likely to do something game-changing (at the plate). Nunez is the safer play. Neither he nor Devers stood out for his bat during the regular season (90 wRC+ vs. 78 wRC+), and the Red Sox consider Nunez the superior defender, so they’ve have gone with him. The Yankees are doing the opposite. Romine is the better defender than Sanchez — well, he’s better at blocking pitches in the dirt, throwing and pitch-framing and game-calling are a different matter — and the safe play would’ve been to start him in the postseason. Instead, the Yankees have stuck with Sanchez, and he rewarded them with a monster two-homer game in Game Two. Nunez is 0-for-7 with a walk in the two ALDS games and his defense has been suspect as well. The Red Sox have played it safe and they have yet to be rewarded. The Yankees bet on the talent and it paid huge dividends in Game Two.

(Elsa/Getty)

4. This isn’t the easiest thing to quantify, but the Yankees seem to be positioned exceptionally well this postseason. Ground balls are hit right at guys and the outfielders aren’t having to travel very far to run down fly balls. The Red Sox had several hard-hit balls against Masahiro Tanaka the other night and Brett Gardner was in position to catch all of them. Don’t mistake that for me saying the Yankees have been flawless defensively. Miguel Andujar still has his issues and Luke Voit can make things interesting at first base. I’m just saying that the Yankees seem to have their defenders positioned very well. Ground balls have been hit right at infielders and several line drives have been hit right at defenders at well. Maybe it’s all one giant coincidence. That’s possible. Given how much the Yankees rely on analytics though, I don’t think that’s the case. Love it or hate it, the shift is here to stay, and the Yankees have doing a really good job getting their people in the right spots.

5. Obvious statement is obvious: The Yankees don’t want this series going back to Fenway Park for Game Five, especially not with Chris Sale lined up for that game. If they have to do it, they have to do it, but they want to put this series away these next two days. The Yankees are built for their ballpark and the Yankee Stadium crowd is a very real homefield advantage. Astros players said the atmosphere was intimidating last season — “There’s no doubt the crowd had an effect on the game,” said then Astros DH Carlos Beltran to Tom Verducci following the ALCS Game Four comeback last year — and I imagine the energy with be ratcheted up another notch since this is Yankees vs. Red Sox. The Yankees are undefeated at home since last postseason. They won all six home games last year and the Wild Card Game this year. That’s because the Yankees are insanely talented and built for their ballpark, first and foremost. But the crowd helps. For sure. The old Yankee Stadium was special in its own way. I loved that place. I grew up going to games there. The new Yankee Stadium has started to develop its own personality though. Its own personality with a new core of players. The Yankees have transitioned out of the Derek Jeter era and a new core has arrived. It’s fun and it’s exciting, and the atmosphere at Yankee Stadium reflects that. I get the feeling these next two games will be bonkers.

The ALDS is now a best-of-three series with the next two games at Yankee Stadium. I can’t shake the feeling that the Yankees should be taking a 2-0 series lead back to New York, but there’s nothing anyone can do about that now. Splitting the first two games at Fenway Park is a-okay with me. The Yankees picked up a 6-2 win in ALDS Game Two on Saturday.

I love this so much. (Presswire)

The Price is Right
For the Yankees, that is. Including ALDS Game Two, David Price has made five starts against the Yankees this season, and in those five starts he allowed 23 runs and eleven home runs in 17.1 innings. That includes a six-inning, two-run start back in August! Goodness. Price didn’t make it out of the second inning Saturday. It’s a damn shame Alex Cora is a smart manager with a quick hook.

The Yankees got on the board quickly thanks to Aaron Judge’s third home run in three postseason games. He hit a two-run home run against Liam Hendriks in the Wild Card Game and a solo home run against Craig Kimbrel in ALDS Game One. In Game Two, it was another solo shot, clear over the Green Monster to center-ish field. Look at that photo above. It is perfect. It is David Price’s entire career against the Yankees in one photo.

The Judge home run gave the Yankees a 1-0 lead. In the second, it was Gary Sanchez’s turn to take Price deep, which he did for a solo home run. Sanchez vs. Price in his career: 7-for-14 (.500) with six home runs. Good gravy. Then, with two outs in the second, Price walked Gleyber Torres and Brett Gardner, and gave up a loud Fenway Park single to Andrew McCutchen. This is a single in one (1) ballpark:

Statcast had the exit velocity at 100.8 mph and the projected distance at 355 feet. That’s a home run in pretty much every other ballpark in the big leagues. Instead, it was a one-run single. Blah. Price got the hook after that. Judge smoked a line drive right at Mookie Betts for the third out of the inning with runners on the corners. Statcast had the hit probability at 82% based on the exit velocity and launch angle. Betts barely had to move. Lame.

Price’s line: 1.2 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 0 K, 2 HR on 42 pitches. Between the regular season and the postseason, this was the 299th start of Price’s undeniably excellent career. It was his first career start with zero strikeouts. Crazy. Also, Price is up to a 5.28 ERA in 75 career postseason innings. And just when I thought this night couldn’t get any better, I saw that Price told Pete Abraham he’ll be available for Game Three on Monday. Sweet!

Masterful Masahiro
Okay, masterful is probably pushing it, but Masahiro Tanaka was very good Saturday night. He gave up the #obligatoryhomer to Xander Bogaerts on an ambushed first pitch fastball in the fourth inning, but it was only a solo shot, so not a huge deal. Tanaka retired ten of the first dozen batters he faced before the home run, allowing only a pair of ground ball singles. He then retired five of the six batters he faced after the home run.

In his final two regular season starts Tanaka allowed nine runs in eight innings, largely because his trademark splitter wasn’t cooperating. It seemed to be moving side-to-side more than diving down below the zone. A few days ago Tanaka said he figured it out during a bullpen session — “I had that time to make the necessary adjustments,” he told Dan Martin — and the split was mostly down Saturday. His misses were wide rather than out over the plate. To wit:

Tanaka is the most extreme anti-fastball pitcher in baseball. It’s no secret. He threw only 30.9% fastballs during the regular season. The next lowest was Lance McCullers Jr. at 37.2%. Ross Stripling was the only other guy under 40%. He threw 39.6% fastballs. Yeah, Tanaka’s an anti-fastball guy. On Saturday night, he threw 18 fastballs (!) among his 78 pitches, or 23.1%. Geez. It makes sense though. Use the hell out of that splitter and slider.

Tanaka’s final line: 5 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 4 K, 1 HR on 78 pitches. There was clearly enough gas left in the tank for another inning, maybe two, but Aaron Boone played it smart and got Tanaka out of there rather than let him face the middle of the order a third time. Tanaka’s numbers each time through the order this season:

First Time: .232/.273/.386 (87 OPS+)

Second Time: .217/.276/.376 (78 OPS+)

Third Time: .292/.345/.569 (130 OPS+)

Yup. Two-run lead in a postseason game at Fenway Park with that bullpen behind him? Get Tanaka out of there. Boone did let him face Betts a third time with two outs and the bases empty in the fifth, and he hit a 105 mph line drive to Gardner in center field. Ominous. Good work by Tanaka and good job by Boone getting him out of there when he did.

Back In The Box
In Game One, the Yankees were all over the Red Sox bullpen. Five relievers faced 19 batters and eight reached base. The Yankees had plenty of opportunities but didn’t get that one big hit. Game Two was kinda the opposite. After Price was out of the game, Joe Kelly settled things down with 2.1 scoreless innings. Pretty annoying. Felt like a “they’re going to regret not adding runs” game.

After Kelly, in came 31-year-old rookie Ryan Brasier, and that clown told Sanchez to get back in the box. Brasier and Sandy Leon were taking their time going through the signs — they were doing that all inning — and Sanchez stepped out a few times, and Brasier told him to get in the box. What the hell is that? Brasier struck Sanchez out and shot him a look as he walked back to the dugout. Clown show. Want Gary Sanchez in the box? Gary Sanchez is in the box mofos:

479 feet. Longest homer by any hitter at Fenway Park since Statcast became a thing in 2015. Second homer of the game for Sanchez and his tenth homer in 20 career games at Fenway Park. Some Quad-A journeyman with like two months in the big leagues is telling a former All-Star and Rookie of the Year runner-up who already went deep earlier in the game to get back in the box? As a wise man once said, “that’s for you, bitch.”

Sanchez’s three-run home run against Eduardo Rodriguez stretched the lead to 6-1 and gave the Yankees some much-needed breathing room. They left seven men on base from innings two through six and gosh did it feel like the Yankees were going to regret that. Sanchez wiped that all away. He is 6-for-23 (.261) with four home runs in his last seven games. The at-bats are getting better and the contact is getting louder. I’m not sayin’. I’m just sayin’.

The Bullpen
With the Yankees still nursing a 3-1 lead, Boone went to Dellin Betances in the sixth inning, and he cut through the 2-3-4 hitters on nine pitches. No strikeouts, but three ground balls. Those work just as well. Betances went out for a second inning after the Sanchez homer and did allow the run in the seventh on a Mitch Moreland single and an Ian Kinsler double. McCutchen’s inexperience playing left field in Fenway Park played a role there. The ball bounced off the wall and over his head.

Dellin limited the damage to one run in the seventh and Zach Britton got through eighth without an issue. Aroldis Chapman, who has had a lot of trouble against the Red Sox the last few years, walked the first hitter in the ninth. Argh. Fortunately a strikeout and a game-ending double play ball followed. Hooray. Literally the first ground ball double play Chapman has generated all year. Good timing, eh? Three runs in 15 innings for the bullpen through three postseason games. That’ll work, gentlemen.

(Presswire)

Leftovers
Sanchez was obviously the star of the show at the plate. He went 2-for-5 with the two home runs and is the third Yankees with a two-homer game against the Red Sox in the postseason. Jason Giambi did it in 2003 ALCS Game Seven and Hideki Matsui did it in 2004 ALCS Game Three. Folks, this is why you start Sanchez in the postseason. He can change a game with one swing and he did it twice Saturday. Also, zero passed balls or wild pitches through three postseason games. Go Gary.

So, you think Judge’s wrist is feeling strong? He went 2-for-4 with a homer, an infield single, and a walk. Statcast didn’t pick up the infield single, but the exit velocities on his other three balls in play: 113.3 mph, 109.8 mph, 109.3 mph. A partial list of players who did not have three 109 mph batted balls all regular season: Anthony Rendon, Freddie Freeman, Jose Ramirez, and Matt Carpenter. Judge had three in five innings Saturday. Swoon.

Beyond Judge and Sanchez, the Yankees also got hits from McCutchen, Giancarlo Stanton, Miguel Andujar, and Torres. Gardner went 0-for-2 with two walks as the fill-in center fielder. Gardi B saw 28 pitches in his four at-bats and helped set up McCutchen’s run-scoring with a left-on-left walk against Price. He also ran down everything in center. Go Brett.

Up Next
Game Three back in the Bronx. The Yankees and Red Sox have a travel day Sunday before reconvening at Yankee Stadium for Game Three on Monday night. Luis Severino will be on the mound for the Yankees. It’ll be either Rick Porcello or Nathan Eovaldi for the Red Sox. Porcello’s relief appearance in Game One changed Boston’s pitching plans a bit. Game Three is a 7:40pm ET start.

If it were May or June or July, it would be easy to chalk up last night’s loss as just one of those games. The starting pitcher had a bad night, the offense had chances but didn’t cash in, blah blah blah. Run of the mill loss. But, because it is October, that one really stings. Despite the early 5-0 deficit, that game was very winnable. The middle of the Red Sox bullpen did everything they could to give that game away and the Yankees said nah, we’re good.

So now the Yankees are down one game to none in the best-of-five ALDS. Fun fact: This is the eighth time the Yankees have lost Game One of the ALDS. They came back to win six of the previous seven series, including last year. The one exception is the 2007 ALDS against the Indians. The midge series. The Yankees, including this very group of players, know what it takes to erase a one game deficit in the best-of-five series. They did it last year. They have to do it again this year.

On the mound tonight will be Masahiro Tanaka, who had a 7.58 ERA in four starts and 19 innings against the Red Sox during the regular season. They hit .345/.382/.631 against him. And you know what that means right now? It means nothing. The same way J.A. Happ’s regular season 1.99 ERA against Red Sox meant nothing last night. If Tanaka’s on, and he dominant any lineup. Hopefully he’s on tonight. Here are the starting lineups:

Another cool and clear night in Boston. Good weather these first two games. First pitch is scheduled for 8:15pm ET (ugh) and you can watch on TBS and TBS.com. Enjoy the game, everyone.

Injury Update: Aaron Hicks (hamstring) went for an MRI this morning and it came back clean. There’s no strain. He still has some tightness but is available tonight. Thank goodness. Hopefully he’ll be back in the starting lineup for Game Three on Monday.

Once again, the Yankees are down one game to none in a postseason series. They dropped Game One of the ALDS last night and they’ve now lost Game One in their last four postseason series. Look at the bright side: J.A. Happ didn’t make it out of the third inning, Chris Sale looked about as good as anyone could’ve reasonably expected him to look after his shaky September, the Yankees blew two bases loaded opportunities, Giancarlo Stanton stunk, and the Red Sox still only barely held on. This series is far from over. Here are some thoughts.

1. The Aaron Hicks injury is potentially very bad news. He left last night’s game with a tight hamstring and is going for an MRI today. It’s not the hamstring that caused him to miss the final three games of the series in Tampa last week. It’s the other hamstring. Hicks said he thinks it’s just a cramp and he’s hopeful he can play today, but a hamstring tight enough to require an MRI usually doesn’t land a player back in the lineup the next day. Maybe the Yankees will catch a break and it will truly be nothing more than a cramp, and Hicks can play tonight. Or at least return to the lineup Monday following tomorrow’s travel day. That’d be okay. If the injury is serious enough that the Yankees have to replace Hicks on the roster, he would be ineligible to play in the ALCS. (I guess Tyler Wade would replace him?) The larger problem is not having Hicks. He’s really good! He had by far the best at-bats against Chris Sale last night (six-pitch walk and eleven-pitch single) and he’s a switch-hitter with power and on-base ability. Plus he plays very good defense and runs the bases well. Hicks brings a lot to the table. I love Brett Gardner, he’s forever cool with me, but the drop off from Hicks to Gardner is pretty huge right now. Hopefully today’s MRI brings good news.

2. So, Luke Voit. He had that triple in the Wild Card Game and then had two hard-hit singles last night. I keep waiting for the other shoe to drop and it just isn’t happening. Voit will swing through premium fastballs from right-handers, though he’s hardly alone there, plus his at-bats tend to be very good. He works the count, spoils good pitches, and hits the ball hard more often than not. I don’t know about you, but right now, Voit is absolutely someone I want at the plate in an important situation. I think I’d slide him into the No. 3 lineup spot should Hicks miss time. I know the Yankees like to split up the two big righties in Aaron Judge and Stanton, but can they just stack the best hitters together regardless of handedness? Pretty please? Could be cool. Voit looks more and more legit by the day. I know he turns 28 in February and I know the righty hitting/righty throwing first base profile is historically awful, but look what this dude is doing. It’s good at-bat after good at-bat with plenty of good results.

3. Against the Athletics, using Chad Green as the mid-inning fireman would’ve made perfect sense. He wasn’t needed in the Wild Card Game, but the A’s struggled against good fastballs this year, and Green has a great fastball. The Red Sox crush fastballs. They’re pretty much the exact opposite of the A’s. Green inherited runners on the corners with no outs last night and gave up three very loud batted balls (102.4 mph, 106.5 mph, 101.9 mph) to score both runners. Going forward the rest of the series, the Yankees are probably better off going to someone who can miss bats — or at least miss the barrel — with something that moves when they need to escape a jam. Asking Green to throw fastballs by the Red Sox isn’t a great idea. David Robertson or Dellin Betances or even Jonathan Holder may be a better bet in that mid-inning fireman role the rest of the series. That isn’t to say Green shouldn’t be used at all. He obviously should. But have him start an inning fresh. Let someone else clean up the messes.

4. The Yankees have to take their scouting report on Steve Pearce and throw it right in the trash. How many times in one season can you let a guy beat you? Pearce does way more damage against fastballs (.438 xwOBA) than non-fastballs (.328 xwOBA), and, last night, he saw eight fastballs and four non-fastballs. Dude. Come on. That first inning walk was terrible. J.A. Happ pitched Pearce like he’s Barry Bonds. Four fastballs nowhere particularly close to the zone for an easy walk, with a man on base and J.D. Martinez looming on deck to boot. The Yankees have to do better than this. Pearce is a good hitter. He’s not this good. The Red Sox have enough really good hitters as it is. Letting a secondary guy like Pearce draw a crucial walk and single in another run is how postseason series are lost. Hopefully he’s out of the lineup against the two righties in Games Two and Three, because the Yankees sure as heck haven’t figured out how to get him out yet.

5. Needless to say, the Yankees really need a good start from Masahiro Tanaka tonight. Happ stunk yesterday — that was really, really disappointing — and even though the bullpen is in pretty good shape tonight, it would be nice to see Tanaka get the Yankees through at least five innings. Tanaka hasn’t pitched since last Wednesday, so he’s very well rested. And we know that, when he’s on, he can dominate any lineup. We’ve seen him pitch well against great offenses in the postseason with the team’s back up against the wall. We know he can do it. The Yankees need him to do it again. Two games into the postseason, the Yankees have gotten six innings from their starters and 12 from their bullpen. I expect the bullpen to throw more innings than the rotation overall this postseason. I’m not sure a 2-to-1 ratio is sustainable though. However it happens, the Yankees need a win tonight. A strong outing from Tanaka would be preferable.

6. I did’t run a thoughts post before the series and I never got a chance to make a prediction. My Wild Card Game prediction was okay. I called the Yankees winning and I called Voit getting a two-run extra-base hit in the sixth inning. The rest of it wasn’t so good. Anyway, I’m going to make my ALCS prediction here, because better late than never. I have the Yankees in five, and no, this is not a reaction to last night. I called Yankees in five at CBS before the series. I’ve got the Yankees in five with each closer blowing a game at some point. Miguel Andujar went 0-for-3 with a walk last night but he’s going to have a big series when it’s all said and done. No fewer than four extra-base hits will make him the ALDS MVP, which doesn’t really exist, but you know what I mean. There you have it. The Yankees are winning three of the next four games.

You know, when the other team tries to hand you a game like that, you really should take it. The Yankees had more than enough chances against the soft underbelly of the Red Sox bullpen in Game One of the ALDS on Friday night, but The Big Hit never came. The final score was 5-4. The Yankees have lost Game One of their last four postseason series (2012 ALCS, 2017 ALDS, 2017 ALCS, 2018 ALDS).

(Elsa/Getty)

Sh*t Happ-ens
Good gravy what a disaster start for J.A. Happ. I never really put much stock into the whole “he was great against the Red Sox!” thing — how much more evidence do we need showing player vs. team splits are not predictive? — I thought he should’ve started Game One because he’s been the Yankees’ best pitcher for weeks now. See how easy that is? No need to overthink these things. Start your best available guy in Game One.

Anyway, Happ was a disaster. Thirteen pitches into the game the Yankees were down 3-0. Happ struck out Mookie Betts (hooray!), gave up a ground ball single to Andrew Benintendi (groin), walked Steve Pearce on four pitches (oh come on), and then gave up a three-run home run to J.D. Martinez. The home run pitch wasn’t even in the strike zone:

Credit to Martinez for being such a good hitter and doing damage on that pitch. Setting that up with the four-pitch walk to Pearce was pretty bad. Happ pitched him scared. Pearce hit that grand slam last week and he didn’t see anything close to the strike zone. It was an easy walk. No tough takes. Free baserunners at Fenway and free baserunners in front of Martinez are bad, bad news.

Following a 1-2-3 second inning against the bottom of the order, Happ gave up a booming double to Mookie Betts — Betts thought he walked on the previous pitch, which would’ve been preferable to the double — and a bunt single to Benintendi. The bunt was in no man’s land. No one had a play on it. Luke Voit had to field it and neither Happ nor Gleyber Torres were going to beat Benintendi to the bag.

And that was it. Happ’s night was over after eleven batters. He allowed five of those eleven to reach base and left behind runners on the corners with no outs. Chad Green allowed both inherited runners to score on a single and two fly balls. Happ’s final line: 2 IP, 4 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 HR on 44 pitches. Bad. Bad bad bad. The Yankees acquired him for starts like this and he didn’t make it out of the third.

Nothing Against SaleChris Sale’s velocity returned Friday night. Kinda. After averaging 90.2 mph with his fastball in his final regular season start last week, he averaged 94.7 mph on Friday, which good but still a notch below his 96.1 mph pre-shoulder injury average. Also, Sale didn’t hold that velocity. His fastball averaged 91.7 mph in the fifth inning. Clearly, Sale’s still not 100% right.

And, obviously, it didn’t matter. Sale gave the Yankees a taste of their anti-fastball medicine and fed them more combined sliders (33) and changeups (17) than fastballs (44). Through five innings Sale held the Yankees to three singles and two walks while striking out eight. He back-doored his sliders to the Yankees’ right-handed batters all night and there was nothing they could do with it. I mean:

The pitch starts way the hell out there *waves left hand* and winds up all the way over here *waves right hand*. Sale has a great slider. He threw the Yankees a lot of sliders. They had trouble with it. Not really a mystery what happened here, right? Even without his tippy top velocity, Sale was able to be (very) effective because his secondary pitches are so good.

Chances Against The Bullpen
It wasn’t until the sixth inning, when he was clearly running out gas, that the Yankees broke through against Sale. Aaron Judge smoked a leadoff single to center and Giancarlo Stanton smoked a one-out single to center. Sale’s pitch count was up over 90 and the Yankees were starting to square him up. Red Sox manager Alex Cora went to his bullpen and that’s where it got dicey.

Rather than go to Nathan Eovaldi, who was reportedly available in relief but not used, Cora went to 31-year-old rookie Ryan Brasier, who gave up a hard-hit single to Luke Voit and a run-scoring fielder’s choice to Didi Gregorius. Two runs on the board. Braiser walked Miguel Andujar (not easy to do!) before giving way to Brandon Workman, who walked Gary Sanchez to load the bases with two outs.

For the Yankees, this was Blown Opportunity No. 1. Andujar and Sanchez got nothing to hit, so they took their walks. Torres also got nothing to hit. He worked the count full and saw six pitches, but only five were in the strike zone. Torres struck out. The pitch locations:

Gah. To be fair, Workman threw Gleyber five straight fastballs, then broke off a nasty curveball for the swing-and-miss strikeout, but yeah. Torres is a very impressive rookie who’s shown an advanced approach all season. Right there though, he needed to show a little more patience. Workman was very willing to put him on base.

Blown Opportunity No. 2 came in the seventh inning. Two singles and a walk loaded the bases with no outs. Workman allowed the singles to Andrew McCutchen and Judge, and Matt Barnes walked Brett Gardner. Bases loaded situations have been the Yankees’ kryptonite this year. I don’t get it. They hit .253/.292/.440 (93 OPS+) with the bases loaded during the regular season. They ranked 20th in AVG, 20th in OBP, 12th in SLG, and 17th in OPS+.

Stanton struck out for the first out. He swung through a high fastball for strike one, fouled away a fastball for strike two, then saw three straight curveballs until finally one was good enough to get a swing-and-miss. Then, with one out, Voit hit a weak tapper to third base that had serious 5-4-3 double play potential. Fortunately Gardner slid in hard (and clean) at second base, forcing a weak throw from Ian Kinsler, allowing Voit to beat it. A run scored.

Gregorius followed with a grounder to second to end the inning. So, at one point spanning the sixth and seventh innings, eight of eleven Yankees reached base, and they had four at-bats with the bases loaded. Those at-bats went strikeout, strikeout, grounder, grounder. Not one ball out of the infield. The difference in this game: When the Red Sox had a prime run-scoring opportunity, Martinez hit a three-run homer. When the Yankees had prime run-scoring opportunities, they hit into fielder’s choices. Homers win games, folks.

Judge cranked a solo home run against Craig Kimbrel in the ninth — it was one of those homers only Judge can hit, it looked like a jam shot bloop (I thought to myself “get down! get down!”) and it wound up in the bullpen — to get the Yankees to within 5-4, but it wasn’t enough. Kimbrel struck out the next three batters to end the game. The Yankees sent 19 men to the plate against the Red Sox bullpen and eight reached base (.421 OBP). Still not good enough.

Don’t get mad at me. No one took a picture of Stanton striking out.(Elsa/Getty)

Leftovers
Green’s first three batters: 102.4 mph single, 106.5 mph fly ball to the warning track, 101.9 mph fly ball. Yikes. The Red Sox are a great fastball hitting team. Maybe use David Robertson as the mid-inning fireman the rest of the series? The bendy stuff gives the Yankees a better chance at a strikeout. The bullpen was great though. Four relievers (Green, Lance Lynn, Zach Britton, David Robertson) allowed just those two inherited runners in seven innings.

Stanton had a base hit that helped start the team’s first rally and he still managed to have a terrible game. He struck out with a runner on first in the first, with a runner on first in the fourth, with the bases loaded in the seventh, and while representing the tying run in the ninth. Kimbrel worked him over in the ninth. Three pitches and Stanton took them all. He jelly-legged the strike three breaking ball. He’ll be on some backpages Saturday.

The Yankees had ten hits and five walks. The Red Sox had eight hits and three walks. The problem? The Yankees did not have an extra-base hit until Judge’s ninth inning home run. Singles and walks will only take you so far. The Yankees needed a game-breaking hit and no one provided it. That they managed to score four runs and make the game as close as it was tells you how good the offense is and how crummy the Red Sox bullpen is.

Every starter reached base at least once. Judge had three hits and a homer — he is 10-for-23 (.435) with five homers in his last seven postseason games dating back to last year — and Voit had two hard-hit singles. Aaron Hicks had a single and a walk before leaving the game with a tight right hamstring in the fourth inning. He’s going for an MRI in the morning. That could be bad.