Abstract

In the best of times or the worst of times - or even in unusually uncertain times - the prevailing opinion about how risky it is to do business is never unanimous. Opinions can be classified into four risk attitudes: Pragmatists, who believe that the world is uncertain and unpredictable; Conservators, whose world belief is of peril and high risk; Maximizers, who see the world as low-risk and fundamentally self-correcting; and Managers, whose world is moderately risky, but not too risky for firms that are guided properly.

Over time, these risk attitudes change via the process of surprise. Surprise is the persistent, and very likely growing, mismatch between what we expect to happen and what actually happens in the real world.