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Friday, February 22, 2008

It seems unlikely that many Democrats will switch and vote Republican on the national ballot this year. If there are conservative Democrats thinking the candidates are too liberal, it is not apparent outside the hills of far western Virginia. But Republicans unhappy with either McCain's conservatism, or disgruntles with his moderate conservatism, appear to be a trend in this election.

What's a Middlecrat to do? Will all those holding out for Clinton switch over to Obama. Or will there be a 'no one' Democratic vote, especially given the likelihood of a surge of Democratic voters and certain Democratic election?

While core groups swing Obama, an intellectual core of commentary is beginning to question the Obama mandate and his ability to lead. An undercurrent of doubt belies the recent state primaries results.

Support likely hinges on the economy, and while Obama is speaking of concern, the faith in a true liberal, promising the world, may erode based on real world fears. A recent PEW Research study finds that "Just 17% currently rate the nation's economy as excellent or good, down from 26% last month. The percentage of Americans rating the economy as "poor" has increased even more dramatically, from 28% to 45% in one month." That could signal a shift towards Clinton in Ohio and Texas.

Leading into the convention, economic indicators and the public impressions on them will be a determinant of the election. It is unlikely to lead to Democratic disappointment, but a split candidate field could be decided based on who has the best plan for managing the issue.