Romney needed to win the conventions and win the debates to have a chance. He just lost the conventions.

I am a Republican. I am also a realist. And to me, Michelle Obama, Slick Willie Clinton, and Barack Obama did a lot of damage these last three nights. Sucked up a lot of independent or middle voters. I don't even like Clinton. I was mesmerized watching the guy last night. Guy is a lethal politician.

Romney isn't likable enough, doesn't connect with people enough. Obama slam ads have done a good job chipping away at his trustability factor. He didn't get the bounce he needed out of convention and then got hit with three left hooks these last three nights. Obama will be up 6 points in the polls a week from now.

Romney's only hope as I see it: bad jobs # tomorrow morning, another one in early Oct, and he has to CRUSH the debates, which I just can't see happening. Obama is just too gifted at bull shitting and connecting with Joe American.

Tough to beat an incumbent. Especially one as politically gifted as Obama. Guy has almost admittedly no clue how to get this economy out of one of the worst recessions in history, and he is going to beat a guy who has spent a lifetime successfully fixing things.

"It's like dating a woman who hates you so much she will never break up with you, even if you burn down the house every single autumn." ~ Chuck Klosterman on Browns fans relationship with the Browns

I just don't think there are that many undecided voters right now to win over. And the ones that are truly undecided will make their decision more on jobs #'s than convention speeches. They had what, 4 million people watch Bubba's speech at the DNC? Of those 4 mil, how many were even undecided?

Like Swerb said, another brutal jobs report. Barring a Sept/Oct Surprise, I still think it hinges on jobs. And the #'s are not looking good for Obama. Blame Bush can only last so long (right? RIGHT???).

You cannot help men permanently by doing for them what they could and should do for themselves-----Abe Lincoln

Let me tell you, if any of you douchebag empty headed stuffed suit nanny politicians tries to fuck with my bacon, I’m going after you like a crazed chimpanzee on bath salts. -----Lars

This a copy/paste from an email I received and saved from a few months ago. Perhaps some of you have seen it. Whether you think it makes sense or not probably depends on your D or R affiliation. If Obama wins it will be unprecedented. However, we are in unprecedented times.

Not one American who voted for McCain 4 years ago will switch to Obama. Not one in all the land. But many millions of people who voted for an unknown Obama 4 years ago are angry, disillusioned, turned off, or scared about the future. Voters know Obama now- and that is a bad harbinger.

Now to an analysis of the voting blocks that matter in U.S. politics:

*Black voters.Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. His endorsement of gay marriage has alienated many black church-going Christians. He may get 88% of their vote instead of the 96% he got in 2008. This is not good news for Obama.

*Hispanic voters.Obama has nowhere to go but down among this group. If Romney picks Rubio as his VP running-mate the GOP may pick up an extra 10% to 15% of Hispanic voters (plus lock down Florida). This is not good news for Obama.

*Jewish voters.Obama has been weak in his support of Israel. Many Jewish voters and big donors are angry and disappointed. I predict Obama's Jewish support drops from 78% in 2008 to the low 60’s. This is not good news for Obama.

*Youth voters.Obama’s biggest and most enthusiastic believers from 4 years ago have graduated into a job market from hell. Young people are disillusioned, frightened, and broke- a bad combination. The enthusiasm is long gone. Turnout will be much lower among young voters, as will actual voting percentages. This not good news for Obama.

*Catholic voters.Obama won a majority of Catholics in 2008. That won’t happen again. Out of desperation to please women, Obama went to war with the Catholic Church over contraception. Now he is being sued by the Catholic Church. Majority lost. This is not good news for Obama.

*Small Business owners.Because I ran for Vice President last time around, and I'm a small businessman myself, I know literally thousands of small business owners. At least 40% of them in my circle of friends, fans and supporters voted for Obama 4 years ago to “give someone different a chance.” I warned them that he would pursue a war on capitalism and demonize anyone who owned a business...that he’d support unions over the private sector in a big way...that he'd overwhelm the economy with spending and debt. My friends didn’t listen. Four years later, I can't find one person in my circle of small business owner friends voting for Obama. Not one. This is not good news for Obama.

*Blue collar working class whites.Do I need to say a thing? White working class voters are about as happy with Obama as Boston Red Sox fans feel about the New York Yankees. This is not good news for Obama.

*Suburban moms.The issue isn’t contraception…it’s having a job to pay for contraception. Obama’s economy frightens these moms. They are worried about putting food on the table. They fear for their children’s future. This is not good news for Obama.

*Military Veterans.McCain won this group by 10 points. Romney is winning by 24 points. The more our military vets got to see of Obama, the more they disliked him. This is not good news for Obama.

Add it up. Is there one major group where Obama has gained since 2008? Will anyone in America wake up on election day saying “I didn’t vote for Obama 4 years ago. But he’s done such a fantastic job, I can’t wait to vote for him today.” Does anyone feel that a vote for Obama makes their job more secure?

While I agree Obama is probably going to win, I think it could be much closer than most people really believe it will. The debates will impact that IMO.

Here's the thing, there are more people that voted for Obama in 2008 that will NOT vote for him now (due to his track record and lack of, well results) than there are people that did not vote for him in 2008 that WILL vote for him now.

Plus correct me if I am wrong, b/c I am not remembering this right now, but 2008 did not bring out an unprecedented number of black voters did it? Young black voters were a larger % but that is only in comparison to historical numbers of young white voters IIRC (could be many reasons for that). Point being the black vote is probably a rather insignificant factor right now.

I just wish there was enough reason to think a change would even matter.

Criminals in this town used to believe in things...honor, respect."I heard your dog is sick, so bought you this shovel"

I don't buy the "theres no one left thats made up their mind" argument. I will concede there are LESS people that have decided, based solely on the fact that Obama is running on a far more liberal agenda than four years ago, and Romneys platform is farther right than McCains.

But there's a lot of swing votes out there in battleground states. And a lot of struggling people out there that are unemployed or underemployed that want to vote Obama, that want to believe he can turn this around, but that still need to be convinced of that. Obama's speech last night was completely devoid of any kind of plan to turn the economy around as he is claiming he can do. He barely talked about the economy.

The other potential fly in the ointment for Obama is this Bob Woodward book that's coming out that details an inside view of the nasty debt ceiling fight between President Obama and House Republicans. The book allegedly paints Obama and his administration as arrogant and in way over their heads. Romney already mentioned it in an interview today after excerpts were just released this morning, which was pretty telling.

"It's like dating a woman who hates you so much she will never break up with you, even if you burn down the house every single autumn." ~ Chuck Klosterman on Browns fans relationship with the Browns

swerb wrote:The other potential fly in the ointment for Obama is this Bob Woodward book that's coming out that details an inside view of the nasty debt ceiling fight between President Obama and House Republicans. The book allegedly paints Obama and his administration as arrogant and in way over their heads. Romney already mentioned it in an interview today after excerpts were just released this morning, which was pretty telling.

Problem is, hard to imagine a lot of people running to the library or the bookstore to read it. Hell, not even downloading it to their Kindle. The only information people will get from that book is what the media tells them. Fox News will drive home every anti-Obama point. MSNBC will trot somebody out there to dispute everything and CNN will be somewhere closer to the middle, but probably won't present the pertinent facts.

There are too many voters out there who simply don't care, won't research anything, won't do any kind of fact-checking. A lazy electorate is more likely to keep Obama than Romney because all they will do is watch the debates and Romney sure as shit ain't winning those. Not with the way Barry can sweet-talk his way through everything. Romney appears too condescending and pretentious.

It's a popularity contest. Obama's Homecoming King and Romney is Most Likely to Succeed. But, who's the one that everyone remembers?

A God Damn dead man would understand that if a minor league bus in any city took a real sharp right turn, a Zack McCalister would likely fall out. - Lead Pipe

I don't think it's a slam-dunk that Obama wins the debates. He's good, yeah. But Romney emerged from a series of debate challenges -- by everyone from Herman Cain to Alfred E. Neuman -- with the Republican nomination. The guy's battle-tested in debates.

swerb wrote:But there's a lot of swing votes out there in battleground states. And a lot of struggling people out there that are unemployed or underemployed that want to vote Obama, that want to believe he can turn this around, but that still need to be convinced of that. Obama's speech last night was completely devoid of any kind of plan to turn the economy around as he is claiming he can do. He barely talked about the economy.

So again, tell me how Obama isn't buying this election?

Romney would gain 3 points if he just aired ads that said "8%, I said 8%" people, and did we mention gas costs $3.95 a gallon, all day long."

Last edited by FUDU on Sat Sep 08, 2012 2:37 am, edited 1 time in total.

Criminals in this town used to believe in things...honor, respect."I heard your dog is sick, so bought you this shovel"

#1 I agree with Rich I don't see Romney pulling this out. I don't see him connecting with people. I barely see any signs driving around my neighborhood and I highly doubt I have a bunch of democrats in my hood. No bumper stickers, no momentum here in Fla. and he needs this state. Things can change it's just right now I don't see it.

#2 Why do you guys think Obama is going to be so slick in the debates?

Have you seen that guy away from the teleprompter? His extemporaneous speaking is Bush-esque at times. The Miami Heats? Seriously what supposed hoops fan would ever fuck that up? The Dibble interview where as a White Sox fan he couldn't name his favorite player? Hell I am only focused on the sports gaffes but get him away from the teleprompter and he's pretty rough.

I'll throw this out there... its a bit unconventional, but maybe the awful jobs situation actually helps Obama.

If you don't have a job, or don't make enough money to make ends meet, who are you going to vote for? The Republican,the guy you think might take away benefits? Or the Democrat, the guy you at least perceive is going to "help" by increasing government benefits?

From that awful jobs report...Labor force participation rate fell to 63.5%. That means 36.5% of working age people aren't even looking for a job. That doesn't count those looking for work but not finding it. A good portion of that 63.5% is unemployed or underemployed.

The adult male labor force participation rate is just 72.7% - an all time low! Nearly 30% of American adult males aren't even looking for work. Many more are unemployed, or underemployed.

Election aside, these are some very dark numbers for the American economy.

Not an Anything. Don't understand people that identify with one party or the other. Too many of my beliefs don't follow party lines.

Have absolutely no faith that either one could do anything to fix the economy, even if they had the right plan. The other side will cancel them.

The only reason I care at all is - as Swerb pointed out in another thread - that the winner can appoint justices. And I sure as hell don't want some conservative Christian whackjob pro-lifer on the Supreme Court.

So as long as the Repubs keep trottin' up dudes that are in the Bible Belt pocket, fuck that.

The recent attack on public employees by mutiple Repub governors isnt going to help the Repub cause either. Whether you want to believe it or not, many union voters don't just vote blue every chance they get.....they will now. Ohio may stay blue for a decade or so.

comish wrote:The recent attack on public employees by mutiple Repub governors isnt going to help the Repub cause either. Whether you want to believe it or not, many union voters don't just vote blue every chance they get.....they will now. Ohio may stay blue for a decade or so.

Shouldn't you be in Chicago parading around with those guys demanding a raise from $70k (plus benefits) a year to $80k a year?

You cannot help men permanently by doing for them what they could and should do for themselves-----Abe Lincoln

Let me tell you, if any of you douchebag empty headed stuffed suit nanny politicians tries to fuck with my bacon, I’m going after you like a crazed chimpanzee on bath salts. -----Lars