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ELECTIONS & Markets What has happened in past? Update #2

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Bloomberg radio said earlier this week that on average when aDemocrat is elected President the markets have gained 10% after theelection while when a Republican is elected the markets lose onaverage 2 1/2% after the election.

So with Obama in the lead if history holds true to its form then weare in for another 10% upside move on Obama getting elected.

Info above was obtained during a live conversation bloomberg radioanchors were having earlier this week.

WASHINGTON – Barack Obama has pulled ahead in enough states to winthe 270 electoral votes he needs to gain the White House — and withstates to spare — according to an Associated Press analysis thatshows he is now moving beyond typical Democratic territory tochallenge John McCain on historically GOP turf.

Even if McCain sweeps the six states that are too close to call, hestill seemingly won't have enough votes to prevail, according to theanalysis, which is based on polls, the candidates' TV spendingpatterns and interviews with Democratic and Republican strategists.McCain does have a path to victory but it's a steep climb: He needsa sudden shift in voter sentiment that gives him all six toss-upstates plus one or two others that now lean toward Obama.

Obama has 23 states and the District of Columbia, offering 286votes, in his column or leaning his way, while Republican McCain has21 states with 163 votes. A half dozen offering 89 votes — Florida,Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, Nevada and Ohio — remain up forgrabs. President Bush won all six in 2004, and they are where therace is primarily being contested in the homestretch.

Though sounding confident, Obama is still campaigning hard. "Don'tbelieve for a second this election is over," he tells backers. "Wehave to work like our future depends on it in this last week,because it does."

The underdog McCain is pressing supporters to fight on: "Nothing isinevitable here. We never give up. And we never quit."

Less than a week before Election Day, the AP analysis isn't meant tobe predictive but rather provides a late snapshot of a race that'sbeen volatile all year.

It's still possible McCain can pull off an upset. Some public andprivate polling shows the race tightening nationally. And, roughlyone fourth of voters in a recent AP-GfK poll were undecided or saidthey still could change their minds. It's also still unclear howracial feelings will affect the results in voting that could givethe country its first black president.

Last month, in a similar analysis, Obama had an edge over McCain buthadn't laid claim to enough states to cross the 270-vote threshold.

Since then, the economic crisis has reshaped the race, and thepublic's call for change has grown louder. Obama has strengthenedhis grip in the contest by using his significant financial advantageto lock up most states that Democrat John Kerry won four years ago,even as he makes inroads into traditionally GOP turf that McCaincannot afford to lose.

Obama now has several possible routes to victory, while McCain isscrambling to defend states where he shouldn't even have to campaignin the final days.

In new AP-GfK battleground polling, Obama has a solid lead intypically Republican Colorado, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia. He andMcCain are even in two other usually GOP states: Florida and NorthCarolina. Obama also is comfortably ahead in New Hampshire andPennsylvania. The series of polls showed Obama is winning amongearly voters, is favored on most issues, benefits from the country'ssour mood and is widely viewed as the likely victor by voters inthese states.

McCain's senior advisers acknowledge his steep hurdles and no-room-for-error strategy. However, they insist that internal polling showsthe race getting closer. They hope the gains trickle down tocompetitive Bush-won states in the coming days and help the Arizonasenator eke out a victory in Kerry-won Pennsylvania. McCain iskeeping up his attacks against Obama as a tax-and-spend liberal; hisstrategists contend that's moving poll numbers.

"This campaign is functionally tied across the battleground stateswith our numbers improving sharply," said Bill McInturff, McCain'slead pollster in a strategy memo. "All signs say we are headed to anelection that may easily be too close to call by next Tuesday."

Democrats privately acknowledge the race is narrowing, though theysay they aren't concerned. Obama's top aides hope not just for a winbut a sweeping victory that would reshapes the political landscape.

"Strategically we tried to have as wide of a map as possible," tohave many routes to reaching the magic number of 270 on ElectionDay, David Plouffe, Obama's campaign manager, told reporters thisweek. "We think we've been able to create that dynamic and have alot of competitive states in play."

Indeed, Obama has used his financial heft and organizationalprowess, a remnant of the long Democratic primary that was foughtout in every corner of the nation, to compete in states the partyhas ignored in previous elections because of their histories ofvoting Republican. McCain has lagged in both money and manpower.

As a result, the GOP's hold on states usually considered safe hasshrunk, and the election's final week is being played out largely instates that Bush won and that are toss-ups in a political climatethat greatly favors Democrats.

They include the traditional GOP bastions of Indiana and NorthCarolina, as well as perennial battlegrounds of Missouri and Nevada.Also on the list are the crown jewels of Florida and Ohio, whichwere crucial in deciding the last two presidential elections. McCaincould sweep all six and still lose the White House.

Obama has every state that Kerry won four years ago seemingly in thebag or leaning his way, including Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan andNew Hampshire — four states with 41 votes that McCain and his alliesaggressively fought for before pulling back this month when theybecame out of reach. McCain still hopes to win one of Maine'selectoral votes, which are allotted by congressional district.

Among Kerry's states from 2004, only Pennsylvania, which hasn'tvoted for a Republican since 1988, remains realistically in McCain'ssights. Public polls show Obama leading by double-digits, thoughMcCain aides say it's much closer. McCain hopes that working-classwhite voters who haven't fully warmed to Obama will vote Republican.Some aides say a Pennsylvania victory, with 21 votes, could be whatallows McCain to win the White House, provided he can thwart Obamain Bush-held states.

Over the past month, Obama has strengthened his standing in four ofthose offering a combined 34 votes.

He has comfortable leads in Iowa and New Mexico polls. Longconsidered toss-ups, Colorado and Virginia have started tilting moretoward Obama. McCain is still advertising heavily in the four andhas visited all in recent days. His advisers say their polling showsthe race tighter than it seems.

West Virginia and Montana both emerged as GOP trouble spots afterObama started advertising in them; the Republican National Committeewas forced to go on the air this week to defend them.

Earlier in the year, Obama had put millions of dollars into Georgiaand North Dakota only to pull out when McCain ended up maintainingan edge. But, as the race closes, there are indications Obama couldwin them, too. Obama also could pick up a single vote in Nebraska,which awards votes based on congressional districts.

There are even signs that the race in McCain's home state ofArizona — which would be a battleground if he didn't live there — isnarrowing. Public polls show McCain with a single-digit lead, eventhough Obama hasn't targeted the state.

The problem russiangambit is that different people have different ideas of what's best for the "future of the country". Some people think it should be more like the past. They think the country is in the mess it's in because we've leaned away from things that made us great like family values, free markets and a strong military. Others think it needs to go further in a new direction, that prosperity comes from economic equality and that free thinking and an open mind are more important than tradition.

Since you hold the election is a forgone conclusion, I'm not sure if your summary about learning from one's mistakes is an argument for or against Obama; IE we'll learn from the mistake of electing him over the next 4 years.