My assumption is that this, of all years, should be the first to hit 10 nominations given the massive spread of films on offer. But if it caps out at 9 – I’d be surprised if it were lower – Brooklyn is the most likely to miss out.

Ruffalo could spoil. I feel like Elba would be the most likely to drop in that instance.

Best Director

George Miller (Mad Max: Fury Road)

Todd Haynes (Carol)

Adam McKay (The Big Short)

Alejandro G. Inarritu (The Revenant)

Ridley Scott (The Martian)

It’s insane that people think Inarritu’s direction of The Revenant is anything but deficient, but here we are. Glad Ridley’s getting his compensatory nomination for The Counselor though. Tipping that McCarthy drops here in favour of the auteurs.

Best Original Screenplay

Spotlight

Ex Machina

Inside Out

Bridge of Spies

The Hateful Eight

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Big Short

Steve Jobs

Room

Carol

The Martian

Best Cinematography

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Revenant

Carol

Sicario

Bridge of Spies

This is actually such a fucking good line-up, reminiscent of the wonderful year where both Inside Llewyn Davis and The Grandmaster were nominated alongside Deakins and Lubezki (shame about that sickly faux-B&W of Nebraska).

Best Costume Design

Carol

Cinderella

Brooklyn

Mad Max: Fury Road

Crimson Peak

Best Production Design

Mad Max: Fury Road

Carol

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Bridge of Spies

Crimson Peak

Best Editing

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Big Short

The Revenant

The Martian

Bridge of Spies

I feel like Spotlight is only present in most predictions for this category because it’s the Best Picture frontrunner and stats lean so heavily towards pairing Editing noms/wins with BP winners. But I just don’t see it happening.

Best Makeup

Mad Max: Fury Road

The Revenant

The 100 Year Old Man…

Best Score

Inside Out

The Hateful Eight

Carol

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Bridge of Spies

Really wish Fury Road could get nominated here but I doubt it’ll happen in the face of more traditional scores.

The rest are unremarkable. The one fun thing I’m tipping is Ex Machina for Visual Effects, but we’ll see. And I’m praying for an Amy snub because that is a bad documentary.