S&P also cut its A rating on ACA Financial Guaranty Corp. to CCC, suggesting potential default. Toronto-based Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce said today it may have $2 billion of writedowns on U.S. subprime mortgage securities it insured through ACA.”

MAKE DAMN SURE YOU UNDERSTAND WHAT JUST HAPPENED AND WHAT THE NEAR RUN CONSEQUENCES WILL BE. I cannot stress this enough.

Ambac Assurance Corp.We affirmed the 'AAA' financial strength and financial enhancement ratings of Ambac Assurance and the 'AA' debt ratings of Ambac Financial Group, Inc. but the outlooks have been changed to negative. ...

Financial Guaranty Insurance Co.The ratings of FGIC and FGIC Corp. are placed on CreditWatch with negative implications. Our most recent analysis of the company's non-prime RMBS and CDO of ABS exposure indicates a level of losses which would result in its capital position falling below our 'AAA' requirements. ...

MBIA Insurance CorporationThe outlook on MBIA and MBIA Inc.'s financial strength and debt ratings is changed to negative and their ratings affirmed. The outlook change is warranted because of the absolute size of stress scenario losses relative to the adjusted capital cushion of $2.75 billion. ...

ACA Financial Guaranty Corp.The financial strength and financial enhancement ratings on ACA are lowered to 'CCC' and placed on CreditWatch Developing. The lower rating reflects the substantial excess-of-modeled stress test losses of nearly $2.2 billion over the company's adjusted capital cushion at Dec. 31, 2007 of approximately $650 million. While ACA has been diligently working to address contingent liquidity concerns, it has not focused significantly on raising additional capital. Lower new business activity during this period of rating uncertainty is a positive from a capital adequacy standpoint but the incremental improvement is not sufficient to close the gap between stress losses and the capital cushion. The magnitude of the gap is large enough to create significant doubt that the company could possibly access sufficient hard capital resources to resolve the problem. CreditWatch Developing acknowledges the possibility that the company may be able to modify its obligations to its counterparties but reflects the real possibility that the counterparties will require the company to post significant collateral going forward.

Remember these names. Ambac, CIFG, FGIC, MBIA, XLCA. They will be in the news again soon… and it will be market moving.

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Disclaimer

The Financial Ninja is a collection of my thoughts and opinions about current economic and market conditions. These are not buy and sell recommendations. Use your head and do your own research. This is a forum to stimulate discussion and debate.

About Me

I started trading during the tech bubble when I was still in high school. My trading has financed my education and I have since completed a BA in Economics and an MBA with a concentration in Finance. I have worked as both a proprietary equity and fixed income derivatives trader.