The Football League Previews 2010/11 – Part 2: League One

In the second part of the twohundredpercent Football League season previews, Rob Freeman takes a look at League One, and predicts good times for two of the striped clubs, more consolidation for the promoted sides, and bad news for one of the newcomers, and wonders if Bournemouth and Rochdale can do enough to keep their remarkable stories going.

The ten point deduction for being administration (despite paying all their creditors in full) was the difference between Southampton making the play-offs and just missing out. As it was, once they got over a tricky start, they were the strongest side in the division, and with most of the top six falling over themselves trying not to get promoted, Southampton were the form side at the end of the season. I expect that to continue, as Alan Pardew has been careful not to change too much – looking to tighten up an already tight defence has been his only focus. He’s also trimmed the squad, without losing any first teamers. It’s difficult to see who can stop them being champions.

The experience of Gary Naysmith and Joey Gudjonsson will help what is otherwise a young squad, especially considering that their form away from home left them down last season, and was the difference between scraping into the playoffs and automatic promotion. They’ve managed not to lose any of their stars over the summer, and Lee Clark has continued his policy of signing promising players from elsewhere. I jinxed them last season, and they look even stronger this time round, but they’re not the strongest side in the division.

Brentford’s progess under Andy Scott has been slow but steady, but they are going in the right direction. Scott also has the ruthlessness not to persist with underperforming new signings, as the four departees to Wycombe found out over the summer, but his signings have to be better from day one. Forster had a great season for Brighton and Charlton last season, and Balkestein impressed in his loan last season, as did Scott’s other loanees last season. The rest of the signings all show promise, and as long as Scott utilises the loan system as well as he’s done in the past, few sides look as well equipped for the playoff spots as the Bees.

On the pitch, things don’t look too great at The Valley. At the time of writing, they have just 20 professionals, four of whom are still teenagers. There have been numerous trialists, so Phil Parkinson’s close season isn’t finished yet. Charlton have lost a lot of quality over the close season, and while Bailey, Shelvey and Richardson in particular will be missed, Parkinson knows this division well, and each of the seven signings made so far either have the experience at this level, or the prospect to do well here. The only concern is the squad size, and if that isn’t rectified, each injury and suspension will hit the Addicks harder than most, but with so few quality sides in the division this season, they could still get away with it.

One of the surprises of last season was Swindon’s appearance in the playoffs, and while Danny Wilson would have wanted to keep the side together, losing Billy Paynter up front and Gordon Greer in defence will be a setback. On the upside, Swindon did keep hold of Charlie Austin – one of the finds of last season – but it will be important for the ex-Poole Town marksman to avoid second season syndrome, as the burden for goals will mainly fall on him. Neither Greer or Paynter seems to have been directly replaced yet, although Prutton seems the ideal partner for Jonathan Douglas in midfield. Regardless of that, though, the Robins look or weaker than last season, but their position this season won’t reflect that, as the division as a whole seems weaker, so they should still edge into the playoffs.

Gary Johnson’s biggest task is bringing some much needed stability to the club, and with the biggest squad in the division, the Posh clearly need to continue the clearout. They have been able to keep hold of the attacking triumvirate responsible for the on-pitch rise up the League (Aaron McLean Craig Mackail-Smith, George Boyd), but Morgan, Daigouraga and Batt will all benefit their new clubs. Of the new signings, James Wesolowski is a little too injury prone for a centre half, and Arron Davies has seemed directionless since he left Yeovil three years ago (although it was Johnson who got the best out of him), but McCann and the pair from Shrewsbury should become integral to the squad. Johnson has a job on his hands in order to get the Posh back into the Championship, but it may take more than a season.

Greg Abbott has been patient with his first managerial appointment, looking to build slowly rather than got for a one season revolution, and this may well be the season where it all bears fruit. Once again, Coventry have raided them for one of their best prospects, however he’s unlikely to be missed, as three new defensive options arrive, two of which having experience at Championship level. Further up the field, Jason Price brings talent and experience, although there have always been questions over his temperament. All in all, the squad is stronger, and in a division where that’s not always the case this season, Carlisle should be challenging for the play-offs.

Not good times at Hillsborough. One of the latest recipients of HMRC’s winding up orders, yet have strengthened their squad. Most of the signings are very good for this division, especially Heffernan, Teale and Sedgwick. If Mellor can reach full fitness he’ll be useful too. However, most of the signing are attacking players, yet leaking goals was the Owls’ biggest problem last term, and the defence doesn’t look strong enough to compete at the top end of this division. The biggest worry is between the posts, as Nicky Weaver hasn’t looked his best in almost ten years, and has only completed one full season in that time, while the second and third choice keepers have just four professional games between them.

It was a solid, if unspectacular first full season in charge for Skiverton, and he seems to be taking a long term approach to the club. Out have gone some of the fringe players, and the older members of the squad. In come a range of youthful signings. The only new signing who isn’t relatively young is Adam Virgo, and he has a wealth of experience for a player who is still only 27 years old. Even so, Huntington and Williams have experience at this level and overall, and while this side won’t peak this season, they should be comfortably mid-table – and may even spring a surprise by reaching the play-offs.

Another mid-season change of manager for the O’s sees another batch of players being released from Brisbane Road, although Mkandawire leaves a gap at centre-half. Coming in are a good group of players, which will strengthen the side across the whole side. One area that the O’s haven’t strengthened is their strikeforce. Alex Revell will provide some goals, but there’s still a gap for a 20 goals a season man. Unless Revell becomes that man, it’s mid-table mediocrity, rather than a play-off challenge.

A bit of a turnover at the Withdean in the close season, with some of the more well-known players departing, and some unknown quantities arriving, such as the two Argentines. Goals appear to be the most likely problem, with just three recognised strikers, and only Glenn Murray known as a goalscorer – although Ashley Barnes notched four in eight games here on loan, last season. The defence looks stronger, and the acquisition of Gordon Greer is a good one. The play-offs are probably out of reach, unless Barnes can reproduce his form over a season, or Poyet utilises the loan system better than most.

12. Notts County

Last Season: Promoted (1st) Manager: Craig Short (appointed June 2010)

It’s been a rollercoaster for the Magpies, and while the biggest wage earners have gone, there still an air of high spending at Meadow Lane. It’s a tactic that will only work so far, and in the right hands, as was seen by the difference in results between Steve Cotterill’s tenure compared to those that came before him. It seems a strange choice to have give Craig Short his first managerial role (his tenure at Ferencvaros ended before it really started, as Short does not have a UEFA Pro coaching licence). The signings are mainly solid, so it’s really down to whether Short is an fast learner as manager. Even the most disastrous of tenures are unlike to see County go down, as the new management have shown they’re prepared to be ruthless when they need to be.

There’s been a fair bit of unrest at the Bescot this year, and fans staying away from the ground, and suggestions of money not being invested in the club lead to one thing; a drop in quality in the squad. Hutchings has cleared out a lot of dead wood, but Ince, Gilmartin and Bradley are likely to be missed. None of the new signings seem that inspiring, but are good enough to fit in, and good enough to make sure that Walsall don’t struggle – which in itself may be bad news for chairman Jeff Bonser, as if there’s little going on, on the pitch, the fans may look elsewhere for their entertainment.

Rovers started the season strongly last season, but fell away, but the signs were there that Trollope can build a side that aims at the top of the table. At least, that was the theory, as while the Pirates haven’t lost anyone of note (other than Pipe, whose loss to the game is the fault of the player and not the club), but the signings brought in have been few and mainly unimpressive. The biggest weakness is in goal, with Andersen only on a month’s loan, an no other keeper with a game under his belt. Hoskins and Sawyer are nice signings though, and mid-table seems achievable, as long as a half-decent keeper comes in for the season.

Exeter defied the odds – again – to stay up last season, and Paul Tisdale has set his stall out for this season by making some impressive signings, particularly up front, where John O’Flynn will benefit from Jamie Cureton’s experience. If anything the defence, and specifically the choice of goalkeepers seems to be the weak area of the side, and if any area is their undoing, it will be that one.

Unknown territory for the vast majority of Rochdale fans, as they have their first promotion in 31 years, and embark on a season in the third tier for the first time since 1974. It would be easy to say that as a result, they’re likely to come straight back down (like a lazy prediction would), but Keith Hill has put in too much hard work in his first managerial job, for that to happen. The signings are mainly ones from former League Two rivals, and a couple of first team players have lost higher up the leagues, but one thing the club has is momentum, and considering some of the basket cases in this division, it would be a shame for Rochdale to do anything but stay up.

It’s hard not to feel sorry for the U’s. Since Geraint Williams was sacked after a relegation hangover saw them bottom of League One in September 2008, first Paul Lambert, and then Aidy Boothroyd have come and gone to “bigger” clubs, with different styles and requirements in players, leaving the club with a large squad, many of whom don’t fit the next manager’s ideal. Even though John Ward was Boothroyd’s deputy, his style is different again. It also doesn’t help that the departures of Fox, Platt and Prutton will hurt, and the new signings are at best, unconvincing. A tough season awaits.

18. Dagenham & Redbridge

Last Season: Promoted (7th) Manager: John Still (appointed April 2004)

John Still returns to the third tier for the first time in fifteen years, and the Daggers make their debut at this level. It’s useful that they haven’t lost any of their players, and their three signings all have experience at this level, although they may not be enough – staying up after finishing seventh is a hard task for any team. But, Still is an astute manager, and may be canny enough to keep them here for another term.

Maybe the experiment is nearing the end. Paul Ince quit over not having enough money to spend next season, and his replacement is in his first managerial role at the age of 29, having never played above the Northern Premier Division. Dietmar Hamann arrives as player coach, having not played in eighteen months, nor having ever played at this level. It’s a strange combination. The signings are weak, and while relegation probably won’t happen, hopefully the Franchise has peaked. The shopping centre has been built, the club isn’t needed anymore.

Let’s be honest, last season’s promotion was such a great achievement, that Eddie Howe was the manager of any season. The transfer embargo has gone, and now Howe has to act – and be judged – as a normal manager. It also means that there’s more freedom to make mistakes when signings are concerned, and while none of the incomers look to be major mistakes, there’s a concern over whether many of them can cut it at this level. A lot will rest on the versatile Stephen Purches, and new striker Michael Symes, but staying up may be as big an achievement as going up.

Mark summed up the off the field situation at Home Park the other day, on the pitch things look even dimmer. What a relegated side short on confidence needs in a new manager is someone with fresh ideas, someone who can make players believe in themselves. What Argyle have got is Peter Reid – a man whose ideas looked out of date in handful of months of his last jobs at Leeds and Coventry. He hasn’t managed at club level for over five years, he hasn’t managed a full season in the last eight. Added to that, and Reid has never experienced the third tier as player or manager, and it looks like John Barnes at Tranmere all over again. The signings are all inexperienced at this level too, and the only one that shows any imagination (Patterson) was made by Paul Mariner three weeks before Reid was appointed. Argyle may need a lot of fortune to not suffer two relegations.

Lower mid-table wasn’t seen as a good enough return for Dave Penney, and he’s replace by the untested Paul Dickov. Dickov also seems to be the replacement for Charlton-bound Pawel Abbott, as neither Warren Feeney nor Dean Kelly have the sort of history that says League One goalscorer. With just five defenders with league experience, who aren’t on the transfer list, and a surfeit of midfielders, it seems strange that the backline has not been bolstered, and it’s also a wonder how the seemingly unsettlable Jason Jarrett will fit in. It could be a very long season at Boundary Park.

A very quiet summer at Victoria Park, and considering the team only survived relegation by goal difference last season, they need to make more than two signing to survive the drop this time. Scoring goals, in particular looks to be an issue that Turner hasn’t resolved, and Paul Murray, who was released by Shrewsbury in the summer, isn’t likely to be the answer.

The John Barnes era ended with a whimper, rather than a bang, as he managed to undo all of Ronnie Moore’s good in just four months at the club. Les Parry did a sterling job to keep Rovers up in the end, but this season may be tougher. The squad looks weak and the signings are full of potential, but lacking in experience, with the exception of Enoch Showunmi. Showunmi showed great potential at Luton, but it’s been four seasons since he really looked his best. Without sounding too harsh, he’s in good company, as the existing players form an older than average squad (with five players aged 32 or over), many of who have seen their better days. Tranmere need an overhaul, and Les Parry doesn’t seem to be the man to do it.

Share

Ian

Ian began writing Twohundredpercent in May 2006. He lives in Brighton. He has also written for, amongst others, Pitch Invasion, FC Business Magazine, The Score, When Saturday Comes, Stand Against Modern Football and The Football Supporter. Ian was the first winner of the Socrates Award For Not Being Dead Yet at the 2010 NOPA awards for football bloggers.

8 Responses

Swindon have just signed 3 players in the last week, and most supporters now think we’ve probably got our strongest squad in 15 years. If Dossevi shows the form that he did against Forest, scoring 2 goals, we might be saying ‘Billy who?’. We will be challenging Southampton.

Lee Clark reminds me of his old boss at Newcastle. He spends a lot of money, but fails at the end.

Personally Charlton are over rated. They have sold their 2 best players, and will do well to make the play-offs.

I agree with Brentford as an outside bet.

Even though I would like to see Franchise get relegated, unfortunately there are 4 sides worse than them.

I’m not liking all this tipping for my lot (Huddersfield) to go up. We always mess up and crack under the pressure when fancied to do well. However, I think Clark has brought in players that are better than before and crucially, in Gudjonsson, Naysmith and Damien Johnson, badly-needed experience as we struggled against the top teams with a bit of extra nous last season. The worries are up front where we look a little lightweight and Jordan Rhodes struggled a little in the 2nd half of last season. Also both Nathan and Tom Clarke are injured for a few weeks meaning if any of our first-choice central defenders or right back pick up injuries or suspensions, we have no replacements. To sum up, the team looks stronger but the squad overall looks weaker.