I swear I'm not trying to let my personal dislike of Guida and Stevenson cloud my judgement, but I am leaning Diaz by smarter game plan, better boxing, and better jits and Diego who has the edge in power over Clay.

I swear I'm not trying to let my personal dislike of Guida and Stevenson cloud my judgement, but I am leaning Diaz by smarter game plan, better boxing, and better jits and Diego who has the edge in power over Clay.

I agree with Diego, and I think Nate SHOULD win, but he should have beaten Clay and would have if he had stuck to his game plan, his brother has learned how to fight to his strengths, but has Nate?

I swear I'm not trying to let my personal dislike of Guida and Stevenson cloud my judgement, but I am leaning Diaz by smarter game plan, better boxing, and better jits and Diego who has the edge in power over Clay.

I agree with Diego, and I think Nate SHOULD win, but he should have beaten Clay and would have if he had stuck to his game plan, his brother has learned how to fight to his strengths, but has Nate?

i am leaning Diaz as well, but in terms of gameplan, i think the fact the Stevenson has been working with Greg Jackson quite a bit will help him come in with a much better gameplan then we are used to seeing. Skill-wise the only thing i think Joe has over Diaz is strength and a little wrestling, so as long as Joe can't takedown Nate and out wrestle him for 3 rounds Diaz should be alright

Already made a play on Diaz -131 last week. I don't like to bet against Guida because he just never quits. I agree Sanchez will most likely win though. Will probably put in a Diaz/Sanchez parlay for small units. Really looking forward to seeing the line for the Winner/Pearson fight. I think Winner has a good chance at taking this as he seems to be the more well rounded fighter and Pearson is more of a one trick pony. Also curious about the Guillard/Tibau line. Guillard either wins by KO or loses by submission (6 of 7 losses by sub). Tibau has won 8 fights by sub and like Guillard is a freakishly strong lightweight. He should be able to take the fight to the mat and finish it there. That said, Guillard has a chance in every fight if for no other reason that every round starts on the feet.

I swear I'm not trying to let my personal dislike of Guida and Stevenson cloud my judgement, but I am leaning Diaz by smarter game plan, better boxing, and better jits and Diego who has the edge in power over Clay.

I agree with Diego, and I think Nate SHOULD win, but he should have beaten Clay and would have if he had stuck to his game plan, his brother has learned how to fight to his strengths, but has Nate?

thats why i'm taking joe daddy over nate. nate should of beat guida by using his strengths but didnt. i think joe daddy's jitz is good enough to equalize nate's edge in that area. i think he has the power and experience to grind out a victory over nate.

I also got diego. i dont think this one will be close. I think diego is ready for a top tier 155er like florian, edgar, or penn. maybe evn tyson griffin. any of these would be great fights

Bodog has joe dadddy at +115 right nw for his againist nate diaz (its -105 on sportsbook). i see +EV in this line. anybody out there think so also? anyone taking nate in this fight? and why?

I would take Nate, he should win this fight, not saying he will though, he's a better boxer and better jiu-jitsu guy, Stevenson could take him down and GnP him the whole fight or fight like Guida did and win a decision, but I'm hoping Nate will learn from that fight and fight to his strengths and pick Joe apart

I'm staying away from this one. I think Stevenson changing camps could have a big impact, the Greg Jackson X factor ... for lack of a better term. If i had to go w/ somebody it'd be Diaz, the lines seem accurate IMO

I got Diaz at -120 but the line is now floating between -145 and -160, so if the line continues to worsen for Diaz I don't know if betting on him is worth it anymore.

Even though I am a fan of Guida (hence my username) I have bet against him in the past and paid for it. I do think Diego is going to win, but with Guida's line being +200 to +250, I think its worth making a small play on him. I think Guida has a better chance to win then what the current odds are: 1/(1+2.25) =31%. I'd say Guida's chances to win are closer to 40%, and if you can get him at +250 or higher there's some good value.

Does performify post picks on these type of events or only the PPV ones?

I don't think he usually puts up full article-style writeups for the TUF finales. Usually, there are far too many unknowns and I don't think he lays a lot of bets. However, this one is a little unusual in that there are a lot more "name" fighters and not as many TUF contestants as usuall. If we are lucky he will pop in here with a few thoughts on the main fights.

Does performify post picks on these type of events or only the PPV ones?

I don't think he usually puts up full article-style writeups for the TUF finales. Usually, there are far too many unknowns and I don't think he lays a lot of bets. However, this one is a little unusual in that there are a lot more "name" fighters and not as many TUF contestants as usuall. If we are lucky he will pop in here with a few thoughts on the main fights.

I don't think that's true of P.....I recall him being pretty heavy on Vinny when he fought Bader.

*edit-it may not have been a full on write up though because I couldn't find a link to the article if there was one. He may have been making forum picks here or elsewhere.

^^^ I was referring more to bets up and down the whole card like he usually does (like UFC 99 last weekend); I'm not so sure he's big on doing that for TUF finales, rather focuses on the main event fights.

^^^ I was referring more to bets up and down the whole card like he usually does (like UFC 99 last weekend); I'm not so sure he's big on doing that for TUF finales, rather focuses on the main event fights.

you know its bad for clay when his fans are even better against the lay and pray master :lol:

Don't be a troll. As a betting man one has to be realistic and can't bet the majority of their units on their favorite fighters. That being said, I believe Clay has a better chance to win then most people are giving him (40%). As a fan you know I'll be rooting for him.