Monday, January 4, 2016

Predicting the future

For the past few years, I have made predictions for
each upcoming year and then reviewed the accuracy of my predictions at the end
of the year (my most recent effort, for 2016, was my last Ethical Musings' post
in 2015). In reflecting on that process this year, I realized that the
preponderance of tectonic changes politically, economically, and socially occur
gradually over a period of years.

For example, fifty years ago when I was in high
school, the personal computer did not yet exist. The computer I used to learn
programming filled a small room. I could slow its operations to a point where I
could follow its execution of a program using lights on the computer's console.
Today, a smart phone has more computing power than did that mainframe. However,
the emerging prevalence of computers and their major role in early twenty-first
century life was not at all obvious to me in 1966, perhaps because I gave
little thought in those years to assessing large-scale social changes or
perhaps for other reasons. Similarly, in 1966 I failed to predict the fall of
the Berlin Wall, the Soviet Union's collapse, or the acceptance of same sex
marriage.

Occasionally, I have identified the future
consequences of current events. For example, during discussions of moving
toward an all-volunteer military I argued, occasionally feeling like a lone
voice in the wilderness, that
eliminating the draft would create a growing divide between civilians and the
military. This has occurred. Few members of Congress or their children are
veterans. Opinion polls show that growing numbers of US voters advocate sending
ground troops to fight ISIS but that they are personally unwilling to serve.

I also argued that in time a professional,
all-volunteer force would erode the underpinnings of democracy and make a
military coup more likely. US political and economic dependence on the
military-industrial-Congressional complex continues to grow. In a world with a
diminishing number of wars and military threats, the US continues to spend
exorbitant sums on its armed forces, buying weapon systems for which no
demonstrable need exists. Concurrently, Congress avoids voting directly on
resolutions to authorize the use of military force. Members fear the political
ramifications of taking a stand should subsequent events prove that stand ill
advised. Furthermore, Congress funded the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan through deficit
financing, thereby dodging the political consequences of imposing taxes to pay
for those wars.

While still in college, I recognized that the
dominant economic model with its presumption of unending economic growth was
flawed. First, the globe has limited physical resources. Second, people can
only consume so much stuff. Third, automating production, whether with a steam
engine at the beginning of the industrial revolution or through use of a robot
in the information era, reduces the need for labor. Consequently, fair
distribution of wealth will require a more equitable distribution of employment
(e.g., fewer hours of work per day or week). Some European nations have already
reduced the average workweek. In the US, failure to address these concerns has
led to increased economic inequality. The affluent now rely upon low wage
service providers to take care of life's menial and unpleasant chores such as
yard work and, unfortunately, childcare.

This post's purpose is not to tout my prescience.
Indeed, some of my predictions have been wrong. Other times, I have been
oblivious to the first indicators of profound social changes. On still other
predictions, the jury remains out.

The purpose of this post is twofold. First, I want
to emphasize that most changes occur gradually, over a period of years.
Discerning those changes and mapping adaptive strategies requires leaders to spend
time reflecting and thinking. Second, although annual predictions have value,
developing and acting upon longer range predictions – if accurate – can have
far greater value. Tangentially, successful investors such as Warren Buffet and
Peter Lynch who advocate a buy and hold strategy recognize the great value of
relying upon longer-term predictions.

My next Ethical Musings post will enumerate some
longer-term predictions. If you have some of your own, please add them as a
comment or send them to by email.