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064. Finding Global Trouble Spots

When planning for military engagements in the next two to
four decades our Defense planners will have to examine what can be learned from
demographics.

The following analysis was prepared for the April 2016 issue of the AFCEA Signal magazine.

Conditions now projected for thirty years ahead, or year 2045,
will originate from current decisions. Defense plans will have to address the
lengthened life of ships, aircraft and combat equipment. Personnel now entering
into military service will be retiring in thirty years. The environment in
which U.S. Defenses will operate will also have to anticipate how to cope with
a different composition in the global population. It is the purpose of this
Viewpoint to outline what are some of the current indicators that will be
shaping our approach to dealing with situations in the different countries. This
Viewpoint is based on an analysis of the data from 180 countries that is now
available from the World Bank.

Demographic analysis will have to start with an examination
of population growth and of its wealth. The following table shows that the largest
projected population increases will originate mostly from newly created
post-colonial African countries.

We find that population growth rates ranging from 23% to 42%
are likely to be taking place under conditions of social turmoil, especially if
the per capita income levels remain at the $250 to $680 subsistence levels. Though
the aspiration levels may rise as influenced through accessible media, hopes of
lifting from abject poverty could be potentially influenced by propaganda from ideologically
radical sources.

An analyst’s examination of the population growth patterns
will also take into account whether there will be young people ready to foment
conditions for potential military exploits. This youth, representing between
35-47% of the total population, will try to enter into labor force where there
will be few available employment opportunities. Although this group does not
have sufficient education they are becoming more literate by listening to media
and will demand the privileges of the more wealthy countries as an entitlement.

The above table will show that in a number of countries,
currently affected by disturbances, there is large share of the total
population now aged up to 14 years. They will age into a new generation that
could be guided by preachers and politicians to become “angry young people” who
will be clamoring for what is not available to them. Instead, they could be
goaded to what is increasingly becoming an accepted political norm that they “are
created endowed with the rights for life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness”.

But changes in the population numbers will not be sufficient
as indicators of potential political conflicts. It will take other influences
to create conditions that are favorable to the initiation of asymmetric warfare
actions.

We have examined income per capita and the age for a wide
range of countries where conditions of stability have not been as yet
established. It is apparent that even small nations can well afford the acquisition
of readily available arms as well as off-the-shelf command control systems to
engage in military actions. Warfare used to required large-scale deployments of
forces to engage in an armed conflict. That is no longer necessary. Easy
availability of weapons in the hands of even a small, untrained and
impoverished organization has increased the number of incidents that will
appear as military actions. The number of small war-like incidents is likely to
be increasing, not decreasing.

As is the case for using any explosive, it cannot be
activated unless there is also an ignition trigger. Though demographic
conditions need to be favorable it requires a spark to create organized
violence. It takes the calls for political actions that transform events out of
the domain of demographics into matters that can be dealt only with ideology
and politics.

CONCLUSION: Our analysis highlights that a
large growth in impoverished and unemployed youth are likely to be setting up the
conditions for increased disturbances. There is no shortage of revolutionary
leaders who are ready to exploit activities that can be dealt with only by an
organized military.