Coronal holes

No obvious coronal holes are currently in or near Earth facing positions.

Processed
SOHO/EIT 284 image at 13:06 UTC on December 2. The
darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on December 11-13.

Coronal holes (1)

Coronal mass ejections
(2)

M and X class flares (3)

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach
Earth
within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived
the color changes to green.
2) Material from a CME is likely to impact Earth within 96 hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next
48 hours.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium
frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation
along
east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is poor to fair.
Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths is poor. Trans
Atlantic propagation conditions are normally monitored every night on
1470 kHz. Dominant stations tonight: WWNN Pompano Beach FL and Radio Vibración (Venezuela). Quite a few stations from the
easternmost parts of North America and the Caribbean were noted on other frequencies.

Data for all numbered solar
regions according to the Solar Region
Summary provided by
NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the
STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before
midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has
observed no spots.
SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region
map above are the historic
SEC/USAF numbers.

Active region

Date numbered

SEC
spot
count

STAR
spot
count

Location at midnight

Area

Classification

Comment

10827

2005.11.30

N08W75

plage

10828

2005.12.01

S07W74

plage

10830

2005.12.02

4

1

N12W28

0050

CSO

classification was HSX at midnight

10833

2005.12.09

5

5

S17W67

0050

BXO

classification was DAO at midnight

10834

2005.12.09

3

3

S06E63

0070

DSO

classification was CAO at midnight

10835

2005.12.09

3

7

N19E64

0180

DKO

classification was DAO at midnight

S612

2005.12.10

3

S08E01

0010

BXO

Total
spot count:

15

19

SSN:

55

69

Monthly solar cycle data

Month

Average solar
flux at Earth

International sunspot
number

Smoothed sunspot number

2000.04

184.2

125.5

120.8
cycle 23 sunspot max.

2000.07

202.3

170.1

119.8

2001.12

235.1

132.2

114.6 (-0.9)

2004.10

105.9

48.0

35.9
(-1.6)

2004.11

113.2

43.5

35.3
(-0.6)

2004.12

94.5

17.9

35.2
(-0.1)

2005.01

102.2

31.3

34.6
(-0.6)

2005.02

97.2

29.2

33.9
(-0.7)

2005.03

89.9

24.5

33.5
(-0.4)

2005.04

86.0

24.4

31.6
(-1.9)

2005.05

99.3

42.6

28.9 (-2.7)

2005.06

93.7

39.6

(28.1
predicted, -0.8)

2005.07

96.4

39.9

(27.6
predicted, -0.5)

2005.08

90.5

36.4

(25.7
predicted, -1.8)

2005.09

91.1

22.1

(23.6
predicted, -2.1)

2005.10

77.0

8.5

(21.6
predicted, -2.0)

2005.11

86.3

18.0

(19.2
predicted, -2.4)

2005.12

94.1 (1)

21.8 (2)

(16.4
predicted, -2.8)

1) Running average based on the
daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux
value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC)
sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically
30-50% lower.

This report has been prepared
by Jan
Alvestad. It is based partly on
my own observations and analysis,
and
partly on data from some of these solar
data sources.
All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are
always welcome.