Monthly Archives

Syndicate

Friday, April 04, 2014

Kentucky Derby Championship Series Weekly Update

SANTA ANITA DERBY, WOOD MEMORIAL STAR ON ‘ROAD TO KENTUCKY DERBY’

LOUISVILLE, Ky. (Friday, April 4, 2014) – California-bred titan California Chrome will attempt to cement his status as the early favorite for the May 3 Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands with a strong performance in Saturday’s $1 million Santa Anita Derby.

Only five Championship Series races remain on the Road to the Kentucky Presented by TwinSpires.com. The Santa Anita Derby is the anchor of two races that will be televised Saturday by NBCSN at 5:30 p.m. EDT. The other is the $1 million TwinSpires.com Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, which features the stakes debut of the much-ballyhooed Social Inclusion.

The Arkansas Derby and Blue Grass on April 12 are the final two races that offer 170 Kentucky Derby qualifying points to the Top 4 finishers: 100 to first, 40 to second, 20 to third and 10 to fourth. The series concludes April 19 with the Lexington, a “wild card” race that offers points on a significantly lower 10-4-2-1 scale.

The Top 20 point earners at the series’ end will earn a spot in the starting gate for the 140th running of the Kentucky Derby (if more than 20 horses are entered). The Derby has attracted as full field every year since 2004 and 13 of the last 15 years.

California Chrome scooped a huge pot of 50 points and became a tantalizing Derby prospect when he registered a 7 ¼-length demolition job in the March 8 San Felipe.

With sufficient points to be assured a Derby entry, California Chrome – a winner of his last three stakes races by a combined 19 lengths – could give veteran horsemen Art Sherman his first trip to the Derby in 59 years. He was an 18-year-old exercise rider for trainer Mesh Tenney in 1955 when he accompanied legendary Swaps to Churchill Downs for his 1 ½-length triumph over Nashua. Now 77, he could surpass the late Hall of Famer Charlie Whittingham as the oldest trainer to win the Run for the Roses. Whittingham, a.k.a. “The Bald Eagle,” was 76 when Sunday Silence prevailed in the 1989 Derby.

California Chrome’s chief rivals appear to be the promising Robert B. Lewis winner Candy Boy and Rebel Stakes champ Hoppertunity. Hoppertunity, like California Chrome, has enough points (55) to crack the Derby lineup, but Candy Boy only has 10. He’ll need a Top 2 finish to secure a berth. If he finishers third, he could squeak in or be near “the bubble.”

Social Inclusion, the Wood headliner conditioned by 85-year-old Manny Azpurua, also needs to finish first or second. He’s only started twice but won those affairs by a combined 17 ½ lengths, including a 1 1/16-mile Gulfstream Park record romp in 1:40.97 while beating Honor Code by 10. Azpurua’s lone Kentucky Derby starter was Set n’ Go, who finished 15th of 23 in the 1974 “Centennial” Derby some 40 years ago.

The Wood also will renew the rivalry of New York-breds Samraat (60 points) and Uncle Sigh (24), who finished a scant one-two in the March 1 Gotham. They finished in the same positions in the Feb. 1 Withers.

HOW MANY POINTS?

Fourteen Kentucky Derby aspirants have already accumulated at least 40 points, and there are four races left that award 100 points to the winner and 40 to the runner-up.

A look at the fields for each Championship Series race shows that another four to 10 horses could finish the series with at least 40 points: Wood (1-to-3), Santa Anita (0-to-2), Arkansas Derby (1-to-2) and Blue Grass (2-to-3).

Additionally, it’s mathematically possible for there to be between 19 and 29 Derby hopefuls with at least 30 points or more. And that’s before any horses that might enter the April 19 Lexington, a “wild card” race, to add to their totals.

That makes it a dicey situation for the connections of Cairo Prince, the well-meant Holy Bull winner, who managed to pick up just 10 points while being outrun and finishing fourth in last week’s Florida Derby. He has just 24 points and could need late defections to make the Kentucky Derby.

For example, a decision on whether or not to run UAE Derby winner Toast of New York looms.

Track officials have estimated from the outset that between 20 and 40 points would be needed to the make the Derby field. Earnings in non-restricted stakes races break all ties.

Last year – the first year the point system was put in place – Giant Finish was the 20th horse to make the field with 10 points. However, five horses with sufficient Derby points missed the race due to various ailments: Flashback (70 points), Ivestruckanerve (51), Hear the Ghost (50), Violence (30) and Shanghai Bobby (24). There also were several others with ample points, but their connections opted to bypass the race for easier spots.

Is this the year that the oldest Derby shibboleth goes down? To win the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands, a horse must have raced as a 2-year-old, the conditioning and foundation of that juvenile campaign being essential to spring-time success. Right?

More than just teach that lesson, history shouts it in stereo from atop the Twin Spires, writes it across the sky in dense smoke and carves it into every furlong marker on the road to Churchill Downs. Racing at 2 has become the sine qua non for winning the Kentucky Derby. Only one horse, Apollo, ever has won the Derby without having raced as a juvenile, and that was 132 years ago on an “off” track in one of the biggest upsets since David knocked out Goliath in the first round.

Since 1956, 50 horses that didn’t race as juveniles have started in the Kentucky Derby, Jon White pointed out in a recent column, and they have a strong record of futility, with only two seconds and three thirds. To put it another way, since 1956, 918 horses have run in the Derby, with 6.3 percent of those of those winning and 18.9 percent hitting “the board,” or finishing in the top 3; but of the 50 starters that didn’t race as juveniles, none won and only 10 percent even “hit the board.”

But this year’s crew of Apollo could be the strongest ever. Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert has two such candidates in his barn, Rebel Stakes winner Hoppertunity and unbeaten Bayern. Hoppertunity returns this weekend in the Santa Anita Derby, and Bayern is set to travel to Oaklawn Park for next week’s Arkansas Derby. Social Inclusion, who set a Gulfstream Park record in only the second start of his career, has taken his sensational show to the Big Apple and will make his stakes debut in Saturday’s Wood Memorial. And then there’s Constitution.

He proclaimed his prowess by winning the Florida Derby with a performance that was not just impressive, but admirable in every way: He learned from it, he proved tenacious down the stretch and he finished it off with a suggestion that he could step forward at Churchill Downs. And the Florida Derby was only the third start of his career.

The Gulfstream surface on Florida Derby day was somewhat unusual in that it wasn’t the speed-favoring highway it has been for much of the season. Nevertheless, Wildcat Red, the early leader, had every opportunity to win, and his failure to do so questions his ability to succeed at longer distances.

Wildcat Red shot to the lead, as expected from his inside post position, and took the field through an opening half-mile in 48.19 seconds, which was the slowest half-mile split of the day on the main track at Gulfstream. In both the Rampart Stakes and the Gulfstream Park Oaks, fillies ran the opening half in 47.67. In between, maidens went an opening half-mile 47 seconds, and in the Skip Away Stakes, at 1 3/16 miles, Sr. Quisqueyano led the way in 47.55. And those, of course, were just the two-turn races.

Any way you look at it or adjust the splits for the run to the turn, Wildcat Red was allowed to crawl through a half-mile. Not until the third quarter-mile did he have to shave 24 seconds (23.81) to maintain his advantage. So of course General a Rod couldn’t make up any ground: He deferred challenging until the second turn, where he had to race three-wide, and then he capitulated in the stretch, finishing third. And of course Cairo Prince, the 6-5 favorite who was starting for the first time in nine weeks, couldn’t make up any ground. After Wildcat Red cruised through the opening three-quarters of a mile in 1:12, Cairo Prince was fourth, racing four-wide in the second turn, two lengths back. At the wire, he was still fourth, but 3 ½ back.

Only Constitution was able to close effectively into that slow pace, making up two lengths. In fact, he ran the final three-eighths of a mile in 36.76 seconds, saving ground and getting through inside and then wearing down Wildcat Red through the final furlong to win by a neck. Constitution completed the 1 1/8 miles in 1:49.16, a very solid, if unspectacular, time for the day.

Apollo notwithstanding, Constitution is within reach of a performance that just might suffice to win the Kentucky Derby. And, of course, with his Florida victory, he earned 100 qualifying points, reserving his place in the starting gate on May 3. Wildcat Red has 90 total qualifying points, General a Rod 40 and Cairo Prince, who entered the weekend as one of the Derby favorites, only 24.

Toast of New York also earned 100 points over the weekend, winning the UAE Derby in Dubai. He stalked the pace and powered home, looking strong and athletic and running the 1 3/16 miles over the synthetic surface in 1:57.92. Afterwards, Jamie Osborne, his trainer, described the handsome colt as “a freak” and, about the Derby, said, “all options are still open.”

And Vicar’s in Trouble earned 100 points Saturday. Actually, his win in the Louisiana Derby put him atop the leaderboard with 120 total points, for prior to his big win Saturday, he had won the Lecomte Stakes and finished third in the Risen Star, all at Fair Grounds in New Orleans.

Most of all, the Louisiana Derby confirmed that Vicar’s in Trouble is most effective when he’s able to grab the lead early. In the Risen Star, he didn’t break sharply, and put in a catch-up position, he had to try to rally; but he flattened out in the stretch after a wide trip. In the Louisiana Derby, with Rosie Napravnik putting a cherry on top of a triumphant day that also saw her win the Fair Grounds Oaks on Untapable, Vicar’s in Trouble went to the lead immediately out of the gate.

He was challenged virtually every step of the way, or at least until he disposed of all the challenges, each in succession, and found himself clear and home-free in mid-stretch. Louies Flower tried him early, and Rise Up jumped into the fray on the backstretch and then Intense Holiday put together a threatening move in the second turn to get within a length of the leader when the field turned into the lane. But Napravnik meted out the leader’s energy perfectly so they had plenty left when the serious running commenced. On a day when the surface was rather dull, Vicar’s in Trouble led through an opening half-mile in 47.86 seconds and completed the 1 1/8 miles in 1:50.77, winning by 3 ½ lengths.

In deep stretch, for no obvious reason, he switched strides, back to his left lead, something he also did in the Lecomte. While the erraticism might be a concern, in both cases he was clear of any threat when he switched, suggesting he did so out of boredom rather than fatigue. Still, he ran the final three-eighths of Louisiana’s derby in 38.63 seconds. And the diminutive Louisiana-bred son of Into Mischief has a sprinter’s pedigree.

Intense Holiday, who had won the Risen Star Stakes, looked like a winner again as he advanced in the second turn. But he ducked in with about three-sixteenths of a mile remaining, lost his action and suddenly gave up about three lengths. Once he got back on his right lead and resumed running, Vicar’s in Trouble was gone. Intense Holiday clearly took a step backwards here. On the other hand, Super

Saver, Mine That Bird, Street Sense, Giacomo, Funny Cide and Monarchos, just to name those since 2000, all lost in their final prep before winning the Kentucky Derby. Perhaps Intense Holiday raced too close to the pace early – he was more than two lengths back after the opening half-mile, compared to being six behind the slower pace of the Risen Star – or maybe it was purely a mental mistake. But Intense Holiday galloped out strongly, passing the winner beyond the wire, and could put everything together again in Kentucky. He has 93 qualifying points.

Albano, who had finished second in the Risen Star, ran fifth but was moved up to fourth with the disqualification of In Trouble. Albano raced wide throughout and was forced even further out by In Trouble on the backstretch. Although he finished more than 10 lengths back, Albano has 34 qualifying points, which might suffice.

Commanding Curve, who finished third, is another intriguing horse coming out of the Louisiana Derby. When Rise Up ducked in at the start, he delivered a full-body block on Commanding Curve. Last early, he finished fastest of all, running the final three-eighths in about 37.33 seconds. He galloped out strongly, too. He has only 20 qualifying points and may not have the chance to run in the Kentucky Derby, but his trainer, Dallas Stewart, was in a similar position last year with a late-running, late-developing colt named Golden Soul, who had finished fourth in the Louisiana Derby before running second, at 34-1, in the most famous of races.