Back when Nintendo originally announced their goal of selling 20 million Switch units in the current fiscal year, most analysts thought the number was outlandish. When you look at the Switch's first and second year software lineup, you could see why most analysts scoffed at the figure. The Switch hit roughly 18 million units sold last fiscal year, and that was with some of the biggest names in Nintendo's library. Could Nintendo really bring in even more Switch sales in the second fiscal year with just a few heavy-hitters to close out the year? Now that the holiday dust has settled, some analysts are thinking Nintendo's projection was spot-on.

While we don't have sales data from Nintendo, we do have some analyst and inside commentary. They obviously know some details if they're changing their tune from earlier in the fiscal year. Here's some of the chatter they've been sharing.

- Switch holiday demand was 'unexpectedly good'
- some analysts believe Nintendo sold 10 million Switch units in from Oct. to Dec. 2018 alone
- analysts expect Nintendo to raise FY earnings guidance on the back of strong demand for software

We'll have Nintendo's Q3 results on Jan. 31st, which will no doubt show a huge amount of Switch units sold. That'll give everyone a much better idea of whether Nintendo can hit their 20 million goal for the fiscal year, which would end March 31st, 2019. I think the one thing we can surmise right now is that even if Nintendo misses 20 million sold in the fiscal year, they're going to be damn close.

What companies do is not guess a number cross fingers for it to happen.
Instead they raise funds for game releases and marketing and expect the return of the investment. This financial return is then translated to sales number, both for hardware and software.

It was both a goal and a projection based on their plans for the year. Not an expectation. They thought it was achievable but knew it would be difficult. The goal/projection set the direction for their efforts this year, including the marketing and other efforts. They'd try their best working to achieve their set goal.

So it's much more complicated than an expectation based on some kind of a conclusion someone drew.