Comments

NFL Picks

Chiefs Could Rise or Fall With 2017 Win Totals

The Kansas City Chiefs are the toughest football pick in the AFC West this season. They could easily go 12-4 again. Or they could go 8-8 and miss the playoffs.

Does anyone feel comfortable putting the Kansas City Chiefs in their NFL picks? They’ve got all the earmarks of an undervalued football program, but sweet baby corn, the Chiefs can be frustrating to follow. Head coach Andy Reid doesn’t always put his team in the best position to win. Starting quarterback Alex Smith is a high-floor, low-ceiling commodity. And injuries always seem to be a problem with these guys.

Which brings us to Kansas City’s regular-season win total for 2017. They’ve been pegged at nine wins on the NFL odds board, down from 12-4 (9-7 ATS) last year, and that seems reasonable enough. The Chiefs were good for 9.6 Estimated Wins in 2016, according to Football Outsiders, and 10. 1 Pythagorean wins. They’ve got a very difficult schedule this year, as do all the AFC West teams. So which side of this total is the right side?

What’s Up, Mahomes?

That’s a toughie. We’ve projected a winner for every single game the Chiefs play in 2017 (see below), and we’ve got them finishing 11-5. But so many of these games look like virtual coin flips. We could easily see wins turn to losses in Weeks 6 and 17, and there are some other close shaves in there. Football is already a game of inches, so you can see how Kansas City could either thrive or perish this season.

I'd heard Andy Reid believes Patrick Mahomes is the next Brett Favre. Really like this fit. What a move by KC.

We’re still going to recommend the OVER for the Chiefs. They’ve definitely got room to win more than nine games, and they’ve got an X-factor: QB Patrick Mahomes II, their first-round draft pick (No. 10 overall) out of Texas Tech. Kansas City traded up to get him, sending the No. 27 pick, a third-rounder and their first-rounder in 2018 to the Buffalo Bills. Mahomes may not take a snap this year, but this is the NFL, where the future comes at you like a brick wall. He might end up leading the Chiefs during their late-season playoff drive and picking up Win No. 10 along the way.