Angels fan contributor: The case in favor of Vernon Wells

Angels fan Kevin Lappin submitted this item. It's a re-examination of Vernon Wells' 2011 season. Do you agree with Kevin's premise? Let him know in the comments. And, if you have items you'd like to contribute to this blog, send them to me at ksharon@ocregister.com.

From Kevin Lappin:

It was kindergarten where I first comprehended the concept of sinking or floating. Yet recalling the concept in it's kindergarten form is painful because it was the source of my first tragedy.

Upon retaining the lesson from school that day, I was so anxious to put into practice what I had learned that I decided to try everything in the house (that I could reach) to see if it could float. First, I grabbed my favorite toy, an Optimus Prime figurine, and set him in a bowl of water that I had endearingly come to have known as "the potty." Sadly, Optimus Prime did not float, and in fact, was not a good swimmer because he was never seen again after sinking through the toilet drain into a sewage world unbeknownst to me.

Reflecting back on my Optimus Prime-kindergarten days, I realize that the few short weeks I spent with Mr. Prime taught me valuable lessons. One of which being the mantra for the Transformers, "more than meets the eye." Being both an avid baseball and Transformers fan, the application of this idiom has taken on a baseball meaning. Instead of solely looking at just the stats that "meets the eyes" when evaluating the performance of a player in a given year (batting average, homeruns and runs batted in), it is important to go beneath the surface to discover if there is anything else to learn before rushing to judgments.

It is tough to ask loyal and devout fans of the Angels to evaluate the 2011 season without having their finger pointed (usually the middle one) to one culprit: Vernon Wells. Vernon Wells' 2011 season would have suffered the safe fate as Optimus had I put it in the toilet; sunk to the bottom and flushed down the toilet. However, if we examine his season from a Transformers perspective, maybe there is more to it than his .218/.248/.412 triple slash line shows.

For example, Vernon Wells was extremely unlucky. Utilizing a statistic known as "BABIP" (batting average on balls in play) which measures the amount of luck a player received in any specific time period, we discover that Wells only reached base at a .214 rate last season on at bats that were not the three true outcomes (walks, strikeouts, or homeruns).

For comparison, the major league average BABIP reading was .296. However, Vernon has always hit at a lower BABIP clip than the league average, scoring a .282 average. In comparison to a normal, luckless, season from Vernon Wells, Wells was robbed of seven hits every one hundred at bats. Projecting seven out of every one hundred to five hundred at bats, Wells was robbed of thirty five hits. Those thirty five hits would have raised his batting average to .287.

Furthermore, some of those hits would have come with runners in scoring position and upped his paltry sixty six RBI's. A lack of bad luck in 2011 would have also raised Wells' on base percentage from .248 back to his career norm of .327.

The BABIP stat is not the only measure that one should use before dismissing a season due to luck, however. Wells also had a career low twelve percent line drive rate coupled with a career high infield fly ball rate. Although all of the outs Wells made this year cannot be contributed to luck, most of them can.

When Wells did get out, he had an uncanny knack for making productive outs. He struck out a career high rate of 16.3% , yet that was still lower than Peter Bourjos (23%), Mark Trumbo (21%), Torii Hunter (19%), Howie Kendrick (20%), and Mike Trout (22%). Of all of the Angels who frequently appeared in the lineup, Wells grounded into the third fewest double plays. Wells and Bobby Abreu tied for third with eight rally killers, Bourjos finished with seven, and the often lamented Jeff Mathis finished the season only hitting into three double plays. I was just as surprised as you were upon discovering that.

Wells also contributed to innings by moving runners over. He had a 28% productive out rate (according to how baseball-reference.com defines as "productive) which placed him in a tie for fifth on the team with Borjous. Once again, surprisingly, Jeff Mathis topped the Angel productive out rate with 44%. Pssssh, who needs Chris Iannetta when you have a machine like Mathis behind the plate?

Vernon Wells has been cursed at and ridiculed the whole season for his suspect hitting. Yet, upon digging deeper and looking past the stats that are flashed on our screen every time a hitter comes to bat, realizing that an unlucky Wells still had value is a welcome sign for the 2012 Angels season. Hopefully, Wells' luck evens out this year and he transforms back into the player the fans in Toronto were able to see every year. In kindergarten I learned, through my valuable, albeit, short time with Optimus Prime, that there is more than meets the eyes with everything--including Vernon Wells. After all, everything you needed to know you learned in kindergarten.

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