From
escalating police brutality and Islamophobic attacks to skyrocketing student
debt and a rampant Wall Street, there could be a whole lot of bad to come for
young people, whoever wins the US presidential elections. We asked an expert to
help us get to the bottom of the madness.

Watching
the race to be America’s next president doesn’t inspire much hope for the
future. But let’s assume for a minute that Donald J. Trump doesn’t get his
fingers anywhere near the nuclear button, we avoid World War Three and there is
still a future to think about.

Whoever
wins the US presidential election later this year, there could be huge
consequences. We’re already staring down environmental collapse, crippling debt
and the knowledge there’s little hope of achieving a better or even similar
standard of living than our parents. But depending on how November’s vote goes,
we could also have to deal with escalating police brutality and Islamophobic
attacks, skyrocketing student debt and a rampant Wall Street.

To get to
the bottom of what’s really at stake for young people in this election, we
spoke to Inderjeet Parmar, Professor of International Politics and chair of the
Obama Research Network at City University, London.

How much
have issues that affect young people been part of this election campaign?
I think probably much more than in previous years. I don’t remember a campaign
which actually focussed on young people to this extent.

Millennials
are such a large demographic cohort and they’re growing in size. Their economic
significance is increasing as America gets older so young people’s issues are
going to be more and more important. Demographics are very powerful as activators.

Young
people have different ideas, views and attitudes. Millennials don’t care about
the Cold War or anti-communism, for example. They have no vested interests.
They’re looking to the future. Roadblocks to their future seem to be
increasing, such as the increasing costs of healthcare. So there’s growing
pressure for change. As a result, their discontents do tend to become political
issues.

What are
the biggest issues affecting young people that have been discussed so far?
There are a couple of big areas. One is students and the indebtedness of
graduates. Students are coming out of college paying very high tuition fees and
having hundreds of thousands of dollars of debt. With graduate employment and
salary levels not as high as they used to be, obviously it means its very hard
to get a start in life, get on to the housing ladder and so on. That’s been a
big issue for Sanders, in particular.

The
second area is police violence and gun crime, which Hillary Clinton has pushed
on to the agenda. She’s been talking about the high rates of police killings in
the last few years and how that disproportionately affects African American
youth. Most recently, she has argued that because Trump is now being endorsed
by the National Rifle Association, there’s a threat that he’ll call for an end
to gun-free zones in schools and that this is a greater threat to children and
young people.

Is Trump
as much of a threat to minorities as people make out?
Absolutely. Even under Obama we’ve arrived at a place where Harvard medics
argue that police killings of black people should be declared an epidemic.
Under Trump I’m sure that trend would get much worse.

Trump’s
campaign has already generated more hate crime across the board. A survey by
the Southern Poverty Law Center, for example, showed that since late
2015 there’s been a large increase in police apprehending people committing
hate crimes. Trump has encouraged and emboldened some of the most bigoted elements
in American society to come and act out more of the anti-minority and
anti-Islamic sentiments that he’s associated with. That’s just his campaign. If
he were to win the White House it would send a huge message.

In 2008
after Obama won the election, right-wing hate groups have swelled. If Trump
were to win, those forces which have been pent up for the last eight years
would be released and that would be very dangerous.

So, let’s
say I’m a Muslim woman living in Dearborn, Michigan – or one of the other big
Middle Eastern communities in the US – to what extent should I be worried?Just
imagine! Trump is misogynist and Islamophobic. The violence which comes to
Muslim communities, which has tripled in the last year alone, from bombs to
name-calling in the street and violence against mosques, will be even more
dangerous. Those people who are vulnerable will be even more vulnerable. Trump
has benefitted enormously from the Paris and Brussels atrocities. If there were
to be another terrorist attack for example, it would just be even more
vitriolic and poisonous.

How do
you rate Hillary Clinton’s offering to minorities, particularly young people?
Her message is one of hope and change. There’s a lot of loyalty to the Clintons
because African American living standards went up so much in the ’90s. But at
the same time African American incarceration rates went up astronomically as
well. There’s a promise of good things, and more opportunities but a lot of it
is rhetorical. What Hillary Clinton can deliver depends on her ability to go
beyond Wall Street’s priorities, and that’s where I have the biggest doubts
about her agenda.

If Trump
won, would he take on Wall Street?
He’s a corporate billionaire himself so he’s obviously not an anti-corporate
overall, but he’s been sending the message about globalisation and free trade.
He’s been saying that his base has suffered from globalisation, NAFTA and other
free trade agreements. So he’s saying he would do something, but what he would
actually do he’s never specified. It’s easy to say this is wrong, but what is
he going to do to take on those forces? Those forces are very embedded in the
political system.

Could any
of the candidates really take on Wall Street? What happens if nobody does?
If there isn’t a new president who has an agenda for change, which helps to
deal with some of the big structural issues, then the big problems that affect
young people are going to get worse. What you currently have is a kind of
crisis in the political system and that’s partly brought about by the fact that
the corporations, particularly the banks and the financial institutions, have
such great power. And they are backers of globalisation. That means very little
protection for people within the United States, and in other nations as well,
from competition from abroad. The consequence of that is that if there’s free
migration as well as an even greater outsourcing of jobs, that then has a big
squeeze effect on the economic opportunities young people have.

Where
does Bernie fit into all this? Would you say he’s out of the running?
Bernie is immensely popular with young people, in fact most surveys show he’s
picked up something like 85% of the vote from people under 30. But it’s
difficult to call. Even without superdelegates, Clinton is a long way ahead.
But there are big states still to come, like California. What Sanders can do is
have an effect on who might be the vice-presidential running-mate. If Sanders
were able to get somebody like Elizabeth Warren on the ticket then that could
be quite a big deal. She’s on his wavelength and she could get the Sanders
movement behind Hillary Clinton.

So, young
people’s best, realistic hope might be an Elizabeth Warren vice-presidency at
this stage?
Yeah, I would think so. She has championed youth causes before and she is well
to the left of the democratic party. She’s been very effective against Trump on
Twitter and elsewhere. Some people argue she’s making a play for an all-woman
ticket to cash in on the misogyny of Trump. She would be a pretty assertive and
strong vice president, who could galvanise support around Sanders’ agenda, like
inequality, decreasing levels of income for poorer people, healthcare and
student debt. She could be a powerful voice.

Wednesday, 4 May 2016

Donald Trump now faces no serious rival in his campaign for the
Republican Party’s presidential nomination. As the party comes to terms
with the news, three experts take the measure of his chances.

Republican meltdown, Democratic opportunity

Inderjeet Parmar, City University London
Donald Trump’s decisive victory in the Indiana primary election last night,
coupled with the withdrawal of his principal rival, Ted Cruz, has made him the party’s presumptive presidential nominee.
It has exposed a deeply divided Republican party whose leadership has
lost all credibility and whose conservative philosophy, which it has
held dear since 1980, is in tatters. The party’s very survival is now
uncertain.

This near-apocalypse has been years in the making. The Tea Party
insurgency has badly undermined both state and national party elites,
driving the GOP further to the right and electing highly ideological
congressmen and senators who refused to compromise with the Obama
administration – not least Cruz, who defied the GOP leadership and forced the US government into a total shutdown in 2013.

But this collapse is also the fruit of decades of economic
deterioration of the party’s white working-class voters, especially
those without a college education. Compounded by the 2008 financial
crisis, decades of deindustrialisation have left a legacy of
unemployment, underemployment, falling living standards and expanding
social and economic inequality. This has also hit middle-income
Republicans hard. Many of them now support higher taxes on corporations
and the very wealthy and back some kind of redistribution of income and
wealth.

This is a rejection of the core principles of the Reaganite
conservative consensus: low taxes, free markets, welfare cuts,
laissez-faire government. Trump has also shown that social conservatism
is not a prerequisite for victory in the GOP primaries, another blow to
the party’s Reagan-era principles.

And so, is the GOP leadership left with no choice but to get behind
Trump? There have been recent overtures. Some GOP stalwarts responded
noticeably warmly to Trump’s first “serious” foreign policy speech, and Karl Rove’s well-funded campaign organisation has reportedly indicated that if necessary, it would back Trump against Hillary Clinton.

But Cruz’s verdict on Trump, which is shared by a majority of
Republican voters, speaks to just how toxic the GOP’s presumptive
nominee really is. “This man is a pathological liar, he doesn’t know the
difference between truth and lies … in a pattern that is straight out
of a psychology textbook, he accuses everyone of lying,” said Cruz on the threshold of the Indiana vote. “Whatever lie he’s telling, at that minute he believes it … the man is utterly amoral”.

The GOP civil war is unlikely to abate any time soon – and that’s a
boon to Clinton. The big question now is whether Clinton can turn the
other party’s crisis into the Democrats' opportunity. She must now
fashion a message that inspires and unites her party for the general
election – even as Bernie Sanders, her flagging but still formidable
opponent, continues to win states and vows to continue his campaign
against the party’s establishment and it Wall Street backers.