Today and Thursday, Egypt's 50 million
eligible voters will have the opportunity to make history by
participating in the country's first really contested presidential
election. As I watch all the strenuous last-minute campaigning, I can't
help but wonder why any of the candidates want the job. Since the
constitution has yet to be written, it's not at all clear what powers
the president will have. Moreover, the country's economy continues to
stagger, and whoever is at the helm will inevitably get the blame for
deteriorating economic conditions.

For the first time in 50 years, Egypt's growth in the fourth quarter of last year was actually negative; when I wrote about Egypt's foreign currency reserves
back in November, the country had approximately $22 billion on hand, a
decline from more than $35 billion at the end of 2010. Now, it holds a
little over $15 billion,
although fortunately, this is a minor improvement over last month's
reserve levels. A devaluation of the currency seems not just likely, but
inevitable. April saw food prices rise at an annual rate of nearly 11
percent, and major cities are experiencing daily protests over food shortages.

Over the past year, several countries and multilateral institutions
have promised to give or loan significant resources to Egypt. The Deauville Partnership
pledged close to $40 billion in economic assistance for Tunisia, Egypt,
and other MENA countries at last year's G-8 summit in France; Gulf
countries, the African Development Bank and the World Bank have also
pledged billions. But the money has been slow to arrive-in no small part
due to lenders' unease about the lack of political clarity in the
region. For more than a year, Egypt has been involved in protracted
negotiations with the IMF for a $3.2 billion loan. These talks at last seem to be in their final stages, which could help unlock other funding. As Mohsin Khan,
a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics
noted in February, "Many of Egypt's friends aren't going to move until
the I.M.F. loan is approved." A successful completion of Egypt's
presidential election could bring some much needed political direction,
and get the financial ball rolling. Still, analysts warn that Egypt now
needs about $15 billion in external financing.

While international funding can help address Egypt's immediate
balance of payments problems, over the longer term, the countries of
North Africa will flourish only if they can attract private sector
investment and marshal domestic resources. Let's not forget that before
the revolution, Egypt was regularly touted as an up-and-coming emerging
market, notable for its large, youthful population, untapped natural
resources, and busy ports on the Mediterranean Sea and Suez Canal. It is
the "E" in CIVETS
(Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa), the
catchy acronym coined by investors to describe the next set of countries
to watch after the BRICs.

Yesterday, I hosted Jose Fernandez,
assistant secretary of state for economic and business affairs, for a
meeting at the Council on Foreign Relations. Fernandez's office is
working on projects in several North African countries to strengthen
economic governance, encourage investment, and reduce corruption. In
particular, he discussed the State Department's efforts to expand a
program called Domestic Finance for Development (DF4D)
in the Middle East. DF4D aims to improve countries' abilities to
attract investment and build up internal resources through measures like
reducing corruption, publishing more transparent budgets, and creating
more efficient tax systems. This month, DF4D worked with the government
of Tunisia to host a conference bringing together regional finance
ministers, tax experts, and business representatives in Tunis to discuss
best practices in domestic resource mobilization. (Fernandez cited the
example of Sergio Fajardo,
the mayor (2004-2007) of Medellin, the Colombian city once synonymous
with corruption and drug trafficking, who was able to significantly
increase tax collections (and turn the city around) by convincing
citizens that their taxes might actually be put to productive uses and
not siphoned into politicians' pockets.)

Yesterday, G-8 leaders meeting at Camp David announced a number of
new initiatives for the Deauville Partnership including establishing a Financial Services Advisory Corps,
which will be run in cooperation with DF4D. The Advisory Corps will
consist "of volunteer experts from the public and private sectors to
provide technical assistance to help transition countries develop
financial sectors that are strong, stable, transparent, and accessible."
Other projects include
an initiative to help transitioning MENA countries access international
capital, and a proposed fund to enhance job creation, rule of law, and
public services.

I'm hopeful that Egypt's presidential election this week will result
in sufficient political clarity to get some of the international funds
promised actually delivered, and begin the long and challenging process
of economic rebuilding that the region desperately needs.

This article originally appeared
at CFR.org,
an Atlantic partner site.

About the Author

Isobel Coleman is the Senior Fellow and Director of the Civil Society, Markets, and Democracy Initiative and Director of the Women and Foreign Policy Program at Council on Foreign Relations. She writes at "Democracy in Development."

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