Economic/Financial

Politics

2016 Presidential Election - Likelihood of Republican Nomination

This page is driven entirely by FantasyScotus data. Step 1: calculate the percent of people expecting the case to be affirmed. Step 2: we took historical data and created coefficients for the relationship between percent of people expected affirmation, expected justices affirming from crowd, and expected justices affirming from algorithm. We will update this a bit in the next few weeks as more cases are resolved. Step 3: apply those coefficients. Step 4: round to nearest percentage point, so 0% and 100% do not really mean 0.000% and 100.000%, but <0.5% and >99.5%. For more details on the cases please visit the New York Times.