On the morning of January 31st, I gave an interview to Radio Sputnik (part of which was later published by RIA Novosti under the title “Poroshenko uses the old tactic of ‘shedding tears'”) in which I expressed the following thought: Poroshenko probably went to Germany to talk with Merkel without a real agenda. Hence why he simply broke off the meeting and went back to Ukraine. The reason? If the UAF offensive from Avdeevka on Donetsk went successfully, then he would probably explain from Germany that this is the self-activism of patriots whom he doesn’t control. “I didn’t violate the Minsk Agreements, this was an initiative of patriot volunteers,” he would say.

But Poroshenko interrupted the visit and returned to Ukraine to prevent a “humanitarian catastrophe” in Avdeevka. The reason is simple: things did not go according to Poroshenko and the Ukrainian General Staff’s plan. Thus, Poroshenko changed out the warrior’s sword for the mantle of peacemaker. He will play the role of the victim and cry to the whole world about how Ukraine has has been harmed by “evil” Russia, and call on the West to punish the “aggressor.” He is totally indifferent to the suffering of the civilians of Avdeevka (I’ve been there many times and even lived for a time in this small town of metallurgists), but he will use them to lend credibility to his complaints.

I’ve also concluded that the large losses that Ukraine is suffering and the fact of Poroshenko’s urgent return to Kiev speak in favor of this theory. Ukraine will soon once again turn to beg the world.

It appears like everything is going in this direction.

Last night, I talked with my friends in Donetsk. During our conversation, I could hear the explosions of artillery bombardments and Grad rocket fire. The Ukrainians were shooting right at the center of Donetsk. According to my friends, even 2014 didn’t see such intense fire. But the good news was that our responsive fire is just as powerful.

In yesterday’s commentary for Fort Russ, I wrote that the casualty figures of the Ukrainian side that were contained in the intercepted confidential report by the Ukrainian General Staff for President Poroshenko, i..e, only 78 deaths, was probably an underestimation. It is most likely that the number of Ukrainians killed in the recent firefights is no less than 100. My friends close to military circles agreed with this assessment and added that the number is probably even higher.

Here’s the information that I’ve just received from them.

Information is constantly coming in from their associates in the cities of Ukrainian-occupied Donbass and Ukraine. All the morgues in the nearby towns of Donbass controlled by the Ukrainians (Konstantinovka, Kramatorsk, Bakhmut, etc.) are littered with the corpses of UAF soldiers. The bodies are being taken to the regional centers neighboring Donbass such as Dnepropetrovsk and others. The situation with wounded is similar. Hospitals are swamped and even civilian hospitals in neighboring Ukrainian cities are packed.

Back in autumn of last year, my friends from the Lugansk People’s Republic reported that the UAF had established field hospitals along the contact line. This explicitly suggests that Ukraine was preparing for an invasion of Donbass.

According to my friends’ assessment, the Ukrainians’ losses are colossal. It is probable that the number of dead and wounded is rising to the hundreds. The political leadership and military command of Ukraine are incapable of managing to hide such huge losses like they did back in 2014. The truth will break out and Poroshenko and the Ukrainian General Staff will be faced with the question: for what sake were hundreds and hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers and officers killed?

My friends also believe that Poroshenko deliberately spoke of the “humanitarian catastrophe” in Avdeevka in order to bring up the ceasefire. In fact, the Ukrainians fear a victorious counter-offensive by the army of the Donetsk People’s Republic and a new cauldron for the Ukrainian Nazi army.

The end of the Ukrainian Nazi state and the criminal Ukrainian army is near.