In Colo. Gov., GOP becoming third party
By: David Catanese
September 28, 2010 05:25 PM EDT

The implosion of Colorado gubernatorial candidate Dan Maes is becoming so apparent that it’s likely to leave the Republican nominee finishing in third place on election night.

It’s an embarrassing and disheartening prospect for a party that just months ago believed it had an even shot at taking over the governor’s mansion in the Rocky Mountain State.

A new Pulse Opinion Research survey of the three-way contest released Tuesday showed Maes capturing just 15 percent of the vote, 19 points behind American Constitution candidate Tom Tancredo, who launched a bid after he rendered the Republican unelectable. Democratic Mayor John Hickenlooper leads Tancredo 44 percent to 34 percent, according to the Sept. 25 survey, conducted for Fox News.

The Pulse survey follows two other polls taken earlier this month showing Maes stuck in third place, as Republicans continue to abandon his bid because of questions about his fitness for office.

“I’m not surprised at all. None of his statements are resonating with voters. His debate performances are poor. He’s not catching on with the party, he’s not raising money. It’s not a viable campaign,” said Mike Beasley, a GOP lobbyist and former policy director for Gov. Bill Owens.

Jen Raiffie, a conservative activist and former Tancredo campaign staffer, said the momentum for Tancredo was most recently evident at a Sunday fundraiser featuring Maricopa County, Ariz. Sheriff Joe Arpaio, which drew nearly a thousand people, including many former Maes supporters.

“What is clear is that the Maes zombies are waking up and some, more reluctant than others, are finding themselves being welcomed into Camp Tancredo with loving and open arms. There is a lot of bad blood between some of these activist. The question is: Will they finally unite together in support of Tancredo? The momentum indicates that they will unite overall, in my opinion,” wrote Raiffie in an e-mail.

Maes has been hampered by everything from campaign finance violations to questions about his claim to have been placed undercover by the Kansas Bureau of Investigation when he was a police officer there. On Tuesday, the nominee continued to fight the claims surrounding his dismissal in the mid 1980s from the Liberal, Kan., police department.

“The accusation that I somehow fabricated the story of working with KBI has now been completely debunked, and I would hope that my critics will now apologize with the same zeal they formerly used to attack. I would also encourage any Republicans who withdrew their support based on the inaccurate initial reports to reconsider their decision and once again support the Republican nominee for Governor,” Maes said in a statement.

But observers believe the chance for Maes to repair the damage done to his character has long passed, leaving him destined for a third-place finish.

“The mayor’s going to get 45 to 51 percent. Tancredo will come in second,” said Denver-based pollster Floyd Ciruli.

Seth Masket, a University of Denver political science professor, wrote on his blog that Maes has become so toxic that Tancredo – long pinned as an extremist among the establishment rung of the party – looks like the better bet.

“The list of Tancredo endorsers includes relatively mainstream party folks like Bob Beauprez, the GOP’s nominee for governor in ’06, Josh Penry, who dropped out of the governor’s race last year, and former state Rep. Rob Witwer. Their backing is an indicator to other Republicans that it’s safe to like Tancredo this year,” he wrote.

The saving grace for the Colorado GOP: The governor’s race appears to be an island unto itself. There’s no polling data showing Maes’s problems are becoming a drag on GOP Senate nominee Ken Buck or any of the other congressional candidates vying in competitive races.

But Beasley, who is breaking with his Republican roots to support Hickenlooper, said he is worried about the lasting impact Maes’s failure might have on the party.

“If he really is in the low double-digits, we’re going to have a couple thousand people versus 5,000 or 6,000 picking delegates for the national conventions and nominating statewide candidates,” he said, referring to the formula used to determine delegate representation at party functions. “If he does as dismally as people think, we’re going to have very few people involved.”

“What it does do is give John a chance to reach out to both political parties and those in between to bring Colorado together,” he said.

The Maes campaign did not respond to a request for comment and the state GOP declined to comment.

Correction: An earlier version of this story incorrectly stated Tancredo held a polling lead over Hickenlooper.