Friday, April 14, 2017

Here is the final NBA SBPI [SportsBoss Power Index] for the
2016-2017 regular season.As a reminder
this model first uses the Four Factors analysis as a basis to measure team
effectiveness & efficiency in key statistical areas followed by filtering
that data into a regression formula that properly weights the impact of each
statistic before being finalized by an SOS adjustment.

HOME

ROAD

RANK

TEAM

RATING

RATING

1

Golden State

103.6

99.6

2

San Antonio

100.3

96.8

3

Toronto

98.3

95.3

4

Houston

97.2

93.7

5

L.A. Clippers

97.2

93.7

6

Utah

96.4

92.9

7

Miami

94.8

92.3

8

Boston

95.5

92.0

9

Washington

95.5

92.0

10

Memphis

94.4

91.9

11

Cleveland

94.8

91.3

12

Detroit

93.5

91.0

13

Milwaukee

93.2

90.7

14

Indiana

94.1

90.6

15

Oklahoma City

93.2

90.2

16

Dallas

92.5

90.0

17

Portland

92.8

89.8

18

Charlotte

92.1

89.6

19

Minnesota

91.3

89.3

20

Chicago

92.3

89.3

21

New Orleans

91.3

88.8

22

Atlanta

91.3

88.8

23

Denver

90.8

88.3

24

New York

88.9

86.9

25

Phoenix

88.3

86.3

26

Sacramento

87.8

85.8

27

Orlando

86.8

84.8

28

Philadelphia

86.3

84.3

29

L.A. Lakers

86.2

84.2

30

Brooklyn

83.9

81.9

The above matrix shows my POWER RATINGS that I use on a
nightly basis to handicap each game; I simply use my ratings from both teams
and compare my number to that of Vegas’ & use that as a starting point in
my handicapping process.

With that in mind here is a grid that shows each playoff
matchup projected lines using my SBPI – showing both scenarios as far as home
teams:

SBPI

SBPI

CHICAGO

89.3

BOSTON

92.0

BOSTON

95.5

6.2

CHICAGO

92.3

0.3

ATLANTA

88.8

WASHINGTON

92.0

0.7

WASHINGTON

95.5

6.7

ATLANTA

91.3

INDIANA

90.6

CLEVELAND

91.3

CLEVELAND

94.8

4.1

INDIANA

94.1

2.9

MILWAUKEE

90.7

TORONTO

95.3

2.1

TORONTO

98.3

7.6

MILWAUKEE

93.2

PORTLAND

89.8

GOLDEN STATE

99.6

6.8

GOLDEN STATE

103.6

13.8

PORTLAND

92.8

UTAH

92.9

L.A. CLIPPERS

93.7

L.A. CLIPPERS

97.2

4.3

UTAH

96.4

2.7

MEMPHIS

91.9

SAN ANTONIO

96.8

2.5

SAN ANTONIO

100.3

8.5

MEMPHIS

94.4

OKLAHOMA CITY

90.2

HOUSTON

93.7

0.5

HOUSTON

97.2

7.0

OKLAHOMA CITY

93.2

Key to handicapping, and why many struggle to consistently
produce winners is power ratings / numbers are only a starting point even when
comparing to the Vegas number.All the
power rating line estimates – no matter which model or ratings source you are
using – is IF each team played their AVERAGE game what the EXPECTED OUTCOME would
be.However, we know that one team is
UNLIKELY to play their average game, let along BOTH teams playing their average
game in the same game.One area you can
find edges when digging a little deeper is particular strengths and weaknesses
of teams in their statistics.Another
way you can find edges in your handicapping process is by identifying variables
that are TOUGH to detect and tough to quantitatively measure – those that can
find these variables, no matter what they are, and OWN them can find that edge
to beat Vegas on a consistent basis.It
does not even matter so much WHAT the variables are – they key is MASTERING
whatever variables you utilize!OWN IT!

Now that we have my posted my SBPI for each team let’s show
what each team’s projected wins (based on performance in my model) vs. actual
wins:

Projected

Actual

Actual

Team

Wins

Wins

B/(W)

Golden State

68

67

(1)

San Antonio

60

61

1

Toronto

55

51

(4)

L.A. Clippers

51

51

(0)

Houston

51

55

4

Utah

49

51

2

Miami

47

41

(6)

Boston

47

53

6

Washington

46

49

3

Memphis

46

43

(3)

Cleveland

44

51

7

Detroit

44

37

(7)

Milwaukee

43

42

(1)

Indiana

43

42

(1)

Oklahoma City

41

47

6

Dallas

41

33

(8)

Portland

40

41

1

Charlotte

40

36

(4)

Chicago

39

41

2

Minnesota

39

31

(8)

Atlanta

38

43

5

New Orleans

38

34

(4)

Denver

36

40

4

New York

32

31

(1)

Phoenix

31

24

(7)

Sacramento

29

32

3

Orlando

26

29

3

Philadelphia

25

28

3

L.A. Lakers

25

26

1

Brooklyn

19

20

1

Teams highlighted green have performed 2+ games BETTER in
actual wins vs. SBPI projected wins; teams colored orange have won 2+ FEWER
games actually vs. what SBPI projected.Here
is a cleaner look at the top handful of teams in each category:

BETTER (green)

Cleveland +7 [51 actual
vs. 44 projected]

Boston +6 [53 actual vs.
47 projected]

Oklahoma City +6 [47
actual vs. 41 projected]

Atlanta +5 [43 actual vs.
38 projected]

Houston +4 [55 actual vs.
51 projected]

Denver +4 [40 actual vs.
36 projected]

WORSE (orange)

Dallas -8 [33 actual vs.
41 projected]

Minnesota -8 [31 actual
vs. 39 projected]

Detroit -7 [37 actual vs.
44 projected]

Phoenix -7 [24 actual vs.
31 projected]

Miami -6 [41 actual vs. 47
projected]

While we, rightfully so to this point, have focused on the
strong NBA teams here is how we projected the NBA Lottery vs. what the actual
order is (remember the NBA Draft order is not automatically the reverse order
of the standings; instead the reverse order of the standings gives the teams
the best chance at getting the top pick, but it’s done in a lottery format):

Projected

Actual

Team

Lottery Spot

Lottery Spot

Golden State

30

San Antonio

29

Toronto

28

L.A. Clippers

27

Houston

26

Utah

25

Miami

24

T14

Boston

23

Washington

22

Memphis

21

Cleveland

20

Detroit

19

12

Milwaukee

18

Indiana

17

Oklahoma City

16

Dallas

15

9

Portland

14

T14

Charlotte

13

11

Chicago

12

T14

Minnesota

11

T6

Atlanta

10

T19

New Orleans

9

10

Denver

8

13

New York

7

T6

Phoenix

6

2

Sacramento

5

8

Orlando

4

5

Philadelphia

3

4

L.A. Lakers

2

3

Brooklyn

1

1

We won’t take much time on this topic but Phoenix was
projected to be 6th now is 2nd; Denver was 8th
according to SBPI but check in at 13th; Atlanta had the 10th
worst projected record according to SBPI, made the playoffs, but should have
selected in the lottery with the 10th best odds of winning it;
Minnesota is once again in the lottery have a 5 spots better chance of winning
it vs. what SBPI projected; Dallas had the 9th worst record in the
league but was a mid-pack NBA team according to my SBPI so they grabbed a 6
spot edge; Detroit missed the playoffs but performed as the 12th
best team in the league so they pick up a 7 spot edge & the ability to
rather quickly turn things around and compete for a playoff spot next year;
lastly Miami, who the SBPI ranked 7th this year overall has the 14th
best chances of winning the lottery and is prime for a nice jump in the ’17-’18
season.

Next up let’s take a look at how the SBPI would have seeded
each team for the playoffs – what we can learn here, same as examining the
power ratings matrix – is what teams are under or over seeded:

SBPI SEEDS

EAST

WEST

1

TORONTO (3)

GOLDEN STATE (1)

2

MIAMI (M)

SAN ANTONIO (2)

3

BOSTON (1)

HOUSTON (3)

4

WASHINGTON (4)

L.A. CLIPPERS (4)

5

CLEVELAND (2)

UTAH (5)

6

DETROIT (M)

MEMPHIS (7)

7

MILWAUKEE (6)

OKLAHOMA CITY (6)

8

INDIANA (7)

DALLAS (M)

9

CHARLOTTE (M)

PORTLAND (8)

10

ATLANTA (5)

11

CHICAGO (8)

*NUMBER INSIDE PARENTHESIS REPRESENTS ACTUAL SEED IN
PLAYOFFS*

**BLUE DENOTES TEAM MISSED PLAYOFFS (M)**

Taking a look at this matrix we can see a relatively static
environment in the Western Conference as the top 5 seeds were the same &
there was only a minor shift amongst the bottom 3 teams including Portland, who
the SBPI had ranked 9th in the West, made the playoffs over Dallas.

The Eastern Conference had some SIGNIFICANT differences:

Miami was the 2nd
best team however they actually wound up missing the playoffs; that is a
good thing for #1 seed Boston who would have had a much tougher opening
round series had the faced the 8th seeded Heat instead of the
Bulls.

Detroit was the 6th
best team however they, like Miami, also missed out on the playoffs.

Atlanta was the SBPI’s 10th
seed however they actually earned the 5th seed – that will help
Washington a ton in what should be a relatively easy opening round for the
Wizards compared to a typical 4 vs. 5 matchup.

Chicago earned the last
spot and a matchup with the Celtics; the last 10-14 days of the regular
season could not have worked out any better for the C’s as not only did
they overtake the Cavaliers for the top spot, and home court advantage in
a potential ECF matchup, but they will face a Bulls team the SBPI ranked
just 20th in the NBA.

Lastly, since this is a review of the regular season & a
playoffs preview to some extent – here are strengths and weaknesses of each
team – which can help you identify some matchup edges to possibly exploit when
handicapping both sides & totals this Spring.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

#1 Golden State
vs. #8 Portland: we all know the Warriors shoot the ball extremely well
as measured by EFG% variance (defined as their EFG% minus their opponents EFG%)
– their +7.77% EFG% variance is off the charts and although you would think
most of that is driven by their own shooting they have, in fact, held opponents
below 50.0% EFG on the season checking in as the BEST allowing 48.6% EFG (the
other three teams holding their opponents below 50.0% are the Heat, Spurs &
Jazz).Portland does not check in above
the middle of the pack in any major metric I track besides EFG% variance – but their
opponent dwarfs it in that area.

#2 San Antonio vs.
#7 Memphis: the Grizzlies unfortunately (for them) draw the Spurs for
the fifth time in their ten all time seasons reaching the playoffs – they have
gone 1-3 in the prior four series winning in 2011 (4-2) while getting SWEPT in
the other three meetings.What stands
out in this series as well is EFG% - the Spurs check in at 3rd in
EFG% variance while the Grizzlies rank 21st (worst of Western
Conference playoff teams & only Chicago is worse in the 16 team field).Memphis’ poor EFG% variance is almost
exclusively driven by poor shooting as they are one of six teams with an offensive
EFG% below 50.0% ranking 3rd worst in the NBA there (only Chicago
& Orlando were worse).The Grizzlies
are 2nd in turnover margin (TOM) variance – which is their only hope
of making this a series: taking care of the ball, turning over the Spurs and
hoping the pure volume of shots they get can help overcome their likely poor
shooting.

#3 Houston vs. #6
Oklahoma City: again, as expected based on my regression model that
formulates my SBPI rankings (regression tests for the most predictive
variables), EFG% variance plays a role here although not quite as extreme as
the prior 2 matchups.Two other areas
that will help drive the results of this series are how often the Rockets get
to the line; and on the OKC side how hard they hit the offensive glass and get
easy put backs.Watch FT shooting and
rebounding here.

#4 L.A. Clippers
vs. #5 Utah: this EASILY has the potential of being the best opening
round series in the NBA, and will almost certainly be the most competitive in
the Western Conference.In the most
predictive variable EFG% Utah ranks 2nd in the NBA while the
Clippers check in at 4th.Breaking down EFG% on both sides of the ball for both teams the Clippers
were ~1% better offensively while the Jazz were ~1% better defensively – which
would have me leaning towards the Jazz in this statistic as games typically
slow down in the playoffs and the better defensive teams typically have an
edge.Looking a little deeper for
potential red flags for each team – the Jazz are 3rd worst in the
NBA in net TOM which will be a huge factor in this series.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

#1 Boston vs. #8
Chicago: the Bulls are the 2nd worst SBPI team (Hawks the
worst) to reach the playoffs this year while the Celtics are 8th
overall, and have worse numbers than the ’15-’16 Celtics.Boston & Cleveland still have the top 2
EFG% variance marks in the Eastern Conference so are considered the favorites,
while Chicago’s EFG% variance is just 23rd – they will have to shoot
it MUCH better than they did during the regular season to have a shot
here.The two areas they can make up
some ground on Boston is getting to the stripe & hitting the glass as
statistically they have an edge in both of those areas.As many NBA fans probably realize – key here
for Chicago is mucking these games up – making them rough, borderline dirty and
trying to get the rather inexperienced Celtics rattled some.

#2 Cleveland vs.
#7 Indiana: it’s almost like the Pacers had intuition as far as their
playoff opponent as the signing of Lance Stephenson should help SOME in this
series.How much?Not enough most likely.Neither team is strong at rebounding (both
checking in ranked in the 20s as far as net rebounding) so if the Pacers can
find an edge there it would be a good start.In addition the Cavaliers struggle taking care of the ball – Indiana is
not great there either, but it’s an area that could expose the Cavs some and
lead to easy open court hoops for Indiana.Cleveland will be well rested and will look to hit the ground running
hard immediately as they realize every extra day of rest they can get before
potentially the NBA Finals helps.

#3 Toronto vs. #6
Milwaukee: these teams stack up pretty close when looking at a variety
of stats over the course of the regular season.Injuries have played a part however – and Toronto will have their full
compliment of players for this series while Milwaukee will still be missing
Jabari Parker – which will play a role although Milwaukee has gone 20-12 SU
since Parker went down (however they did lose 4 of their last 6 down the
stretch playing key games for seeding purposes which could be a cause for
concern).One area Milwaukee needs to
focus on is protecting the rim & their defensive rebounding – Toronto does
not turn the ball over much & forces a good amount so any extra chances the
Raptors can get from offensive rebounding could be a deathblow to the Bucks.

#4 Washington vs.
#5 Atlanta: the Hawks rank 22nd in my SBPI, the worst of any
playoff team this year.On the flip side
the Wizards rank 9th, a very strong year for them where they even
check in higher than Cleveland!This
should be an “easier than many expect” series for the Wizards as the Hawks just
are not very good – while injuries have played a part to some extent they are
ranked well below their playoff counterparts in just about every area
(Bazemore, Millsap & Sefolosha missed a combined 43 games during the
regular season while Howard also missed 8; all will be healthy to start this
series).The one area I track where the
Hawks do well is FT Rate variance – they rank 4th in the NBA in net
FTA’s – and that is an area they will need to exploit to the highest degree to
have a shot in this series.

Good luck during the NBA Playoffs!I will do my best at posting some updated
numbers & thoughts as we enjoy the next 2 months of playoff action!

The SportsBoss is a handicapping "broker" that offers NFL, NBA, NCAA football, NCAA basketball, NHL and MLB picks. The Sports Boss leverages his background which includes both a BS and MBA in Finance to build robust, analytical models which aid in predicting outcomes of games in every sport.