Tuesday, January 31, 2017

...if Trump’s ideology were not noxious, his incompetence is a threat to all around him. To say that it is amateur hour at the White House is to slander amateurs. The recent executive orders were drafted and signed without any normal agency review or even semicoherent legal advice, filled with elemental errors that any nursery school student would have caught.

Paul Krugman tweets - “Given the rate at which things are coming to a head, "President Trump" -- the sort-of legitimate head of a republic -- won't last long. Either he or the republic, in any meaningful sense, will be gone quite soon. I have a hard time seeing one year, let alone four. What this means is that anyone considering working for or with this White House -- Senators, officials, businessmen -- shouldn’t. Either you're going to go down with a disgraced president, or you're going to be complicit in the death of democracy. Just say no.”

“But we had a problem. We didn’t know where to run. There was no Israel like there is today. There was no place that you could legally go to. It was very hard to get a visa to the United States; it would take years and years.“For a family with small kids to pick themselves up and go it was very hard. But a few families left to Palestine and they stayed alive. We felt the antisemitism. We felt something was coming, but we couldn’t help ourselves.“The doors of the world were closed to us. You know how hard it was to get to Israel? Boys and girls used to sit in a camp for three or four years before they could go to Palestine. To go to America was harder. You sent your papers and you waited for years before you could get a visa.”

Good morning. It is sunny and 18 degrees here in the Upper Hudson Valley, the forecast predicts temperatures around 30 degrees this afternoon and possibly light snow too. Well let's see what Very Ill Duce has violated today, no doubt human rights are at the top of the list along with ripping up the Constitution and any semblance of democracy.

At 9:20 a.m. ET DOW futures are -36 and the price of oil per barrel is up. The market is poised to open moderately lower.

Looks like the Trump market has gone a little haywire lately. Is it any surprise? Meanwhile there is a new Fed meeting about to take place and that is something to keep an eye on. Lots of corporate earnings coming through today and the market's direction will also express the quality of these corporate results.

Fed chair Janet Yellen said earlier this month that the economy is near maximum employment and inflation was moving closer to the central bank's goal. Yellen reiterated that she and other Fed leaders expect to raise rates a "few times a year" until 2019.

Shock Event.From US/GOP historian, BC professor Heather Cox Richardson:I don't like to talk about politics on Facebook-- political history is my job, after all, and you are my friends-- but there is an important non-partisan point to make today.What Bannon is doing, most dramatically with last night's ban on immigration from seven predominantly Muslim countries-- is creating what is known as a "shock event." Such an event is unexpected and confusing and throws a society into chaos. People scramble to react to the event, usually along some fault line that those responsible for the event can widen by claiming that they alone know how to restore order. When opponents speak out, the authors of the shock event call them enemies. As society reels and tempers run high, those responsible for the shock event perform a sleight of hand to achieve their real goal, a goal they know to be hugely unpopular, but from which everyone has been distracted as they fight over the initial event. There is no longer concerted opposition to the real goal; opposition divides along the partisan lines established by the shock event.Last night's Executive Order has all the hallmarks of a shock event. It was not reviewed by any governmental agencies or lawyers before it was released, and counter terrorism experts insist they did not ask for it. People charged with enforcing it got no instructions about how to do so. Courts immediately have declared parts of it unconstitutional, but border police in some airports are refusing to stop enforcing it.Predictably, chaos has followed and tempers are hot.My point today is this: unless you are the person setting it up, it is in no one's interest to play the shock event game. It is designed explicitly to divide people who might otherwise come together so they cannot stand against something its authors think they won't like. I don't know what Bannon is up to-- although I have some guesses-- but because I know Bannon's ideas well, I am positive that there is not a single person whom I consider a friend on either side of the aisle-- and my friends range pretty widely-- who will benefit from whatever it is. If the shock event strategy works, though, many of you will blame each other, rather than Bannon, for the fallout. And the country will have been tricked into accepting their real goal.But because shock events destabilize a society, they can also be used positively. We do not have to respond along old fault lines. We could just as easily reorganize into a different pattern that threatens the people who sparked the event. A successful shock event depends on speed and chaos because it requires knee-jerk reactions so that people divide along established lines. This, for example, is how Confederate leaders railroaded the initial southern states out of the Union. If people realize they are being played, though, they can reach across old lines and reorganize to challenge the leaders who are pulling the strings. This was Lincoln's strategy when he joined together Whigs, Democrats, Free-Soilers, anti-Nebraska voters, and nativists into the new Republican Party to stand against the Slave Power. Five years before, such a coalition would have been unimaginable. Members of those groups agreed on very little other than that they wanted all Americans to have equal economic opportunity. Once they began to work together to promote a fair economic system, though, they found much common ground. They ended up rededicating the nation to a "government of the people, by the people, and for the people."Confederate leaders and Lincoln both knew about the political potential of a shock event. As we are in the midst of one, it seems worth noting that Lincoln seemed to have the better idea about how to use it.

summary - A UK, Canadian and Italian study has provided what researchers believe is the first observational evidence that our universe could be a vast and complex hologram. Theoretical physicists and astrophysicists, investigating irregularities in the cosmic microwave background (the 'afterglow' of the Big Bang), have found there is substantial evidence supporting a holographic explanation of the universe -- in fact, as much as there is for the traditional explanation of these irregularities using the theory of cosmic inflation

At a news conference, Senator Chuck Schumer, the Democratic minority leader from New York, choked up as he vowed to “claw, scrap and fight with every fiber of my being until these orders are overturned.”

I agree with GK, this is not going to happen. However it is noteworthy that a Brandeis University professor is laying out the steps and reasons for Trump's impeachment. Interesting that people are already talking the talk.

Good morning. It is 27 degrees and sunny here in the Upper Hudson Valley, the forecast predicts a cloudy day with temperatures around 30 degrees this afternoon. As February is about to roll in, looks like we might be getting a little more seasonable weather. It's been an extremely mild winter so far.

At 9:20 a.m. ET DOW futures are down -102 and the price of oil per barrel is slightly lower trading at $53.12. The market is poised to tank at the opening bell

Trump's incredibly poorly thought out ban is roiling world markets this morning. Travel stocks are hurting, high tech companies are in a fury, and people around the world are pledging to fight Trump. Hey, this is only the beginning of week two, we got four years ahead.

summary - We all have particular experiences or particular things -- a favorite song, for example -- that mean much more to us than others. Now, researchers who've studied how perceptions of meaning change when people take the psychedelic drug known as LSD have traced that sense of meaningfulness to particular neurochemicals and receptors in the brain.

Redmond was unaware of the critical coverage that has saturated newspaper front pages and cable news reports since inauguration day. “Papers? I’ve no idea what they are talking about – I don’t see them. If it don’t put a dime in my pocket, I don’t worry about it.”

Great. Terrific. Phenomenal. Tremendous. Fabulous. Beautiful. How Trump has hollowed out these words. How arid, even nauseating, he has made them. They mean nothing. They are space-fillers issuing with a thudding regularity from his uncurious mind...

Good morning. It is 37 degrees and cloudy here in the Upper Hudson Valley, the forecast predicts a cloudy day with temperatures around 39 degrees this afternoon. I love the way Trump is issuing executive orders as if he were throwing out bird seed from a 2,000 pound sack, and the way this is no problem for the GOP. You see it's only a Constitutional crisis when a Democratic president issues an executive order, a president who was actually elected with the vast majority of voters in the country, unlike Trump. See how that works.

At 9:20 a.m. ET DOW futures are a -16 and the price of oil per barrel is down. Oil is now trading around $53.62. The DOW is poised to open slightly lower

“If the US was to make it once again the policy of the country to coerce, and to detain at length in an extrajudicial fashion, the costs would be beyond substantial – they’d be potentially existential. We’ve seen how [torture] promotes violent extremism, how it degrades alliances. We’ve seen how it only serves to provide information that policymakers want to support [desired policies], not what they need,” Kleinman said.

Good morning. It is 37 degrees and cloudy here in the Upper Hudson Valley, the forecast predicts a cloudy day with temperatures around 46 degrees this afternoon. The snow is once again making a steady retreat.

At 9:25 a.m. ET DOW futures are +16 and the price of oil per barrel is down. The market is poised to open marginally higher.

The DOW surpassed the magic number of 20,000 yesterday for the first time ever. The bulls remain and so does the biggest bullshitter.

(If Trump is) unable to separate what he wants to believe and what exists, literally, in front of his eyes...they (the GOP) — and we all — have a constitutional crisis the likes of which we have never seen.

In all, more than 200 people were arrested on Friday, after property was vandalized in the US capital in the hours around Trump’s swearing-in as president. Police said that six officers suffered minor injuries.

The 25th Amendment Section 4 of the U.S. Constitution - Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.Thereafter, when the President transmits to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives his written declaration that no inability exists, he shall resume the powers and duties of his office unless the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive department or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit within four days to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office. Thereupon Congress shall decide the issue, assembling within forty-eight hours for that purpose if not in session. If the Congress, within twenty-one days after receipt of the latter written declaration, or, if Congress is not in session, within twenty-one days after Congress is required to assemble, determines by two-thirds vote of both Houses that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall continue to discharge the same as Acting President; otherwise, the President shall resume the powers and duties of his office.

From last Saturday through Tuesday night, it’s been one surreal event after another, starting with Trump’s visit to the CIA headquarters where he stood in front of the Memorial Wall — marked with 117 stars honoring agents who have died in the line of duty — and acted like he was at a rally in a high school gym in Indiana.

Good morning. It is 34 degrees and cloudy here in the Upper Hudson Valley, the forecast predicts a cloudy day with temperatures in the low 40s this afternoon. Our poor country.

At 9:20 a.m. ET DOW futures are a +96 and the price of oil per barrel is down. Oil continues to trade in the $49 to $53 per barrel range. The market is poised to open moderately higher.

Today Trump will sign an executive order allocating resources to building his ridiculous wall paid for by us.I seem to recall GOPers calling Obama's use of the executive order as being unconstitutional and against the will of the people. I guess that little piece of hypocritical bullshit is going to be tucked away for a future date. Pipelines, we got em. You knew it would happen eventually.

Have you ever read the NY Post? It's trash, even the coverage of the NY Knicks, which is the only possible saving grace in an otherwise piece of trash, is done poorly. It tends to trash black players as being lazy, undeserving, unmotivated, it's pure racist crap.

Nancy Pelosi...said: “Now, foreign non-governmental organisations will be forced to give women incomplete medical information, advice and care in order to participate in US-supported programs abroad. When last in place, the global gag rule had the effect of decreasing access to family planning services around the world. Study after study shows that when women have increased access to family planning services and supplies, such as contraceptives, the incidence of abortion decreases.

Good morning. It is 34 degrees and cloudy here in the Upper Hudson Valley, the forecast predicts temperatures around 36 degrees and a mix of rain and snow this afternoon. We got a few inches of snow overnight, at least it looks more like January out there. The extraordinarily mild January is about global warming. I would suspect this is the warmest January in this part of the Northeast.

At 9:15 a.m. ET the pre-market DOW is a +10 and the price of oil per barrel up. The market is poised to open slightly higher.

England has decided that the Brexit must pass through a vote from their Supreme Court. Let's see what happens next. Investors seem to be standing down at the moment. Can we blame them given the quixotic and unstable nature of the new administration.

It's a rhetorical question. No one has confidence in this guy, come on now. The interesting thing is, if Trump were able to somehow show the slightest semblance of humility, people would then find confidence in him.

summary - Scientists have presented a prototype for a 3D bioprinter that can create totally functional human skin. This skin is adequate for transplanting to patients or for use in research or the testing of cosmetic, chemical, and pharmaceutical products.

An analysis by The New York Times, comparing photographs from Friday to ones taken of Barack Obama’s 2009 inauguration, showed that Mr. Trump’s crowd was significantly smaller and less than the 1.5 million people he claimed. An expert hired by The Times found that Mr. Trump’s crowd on the National Mall was about a third of the size of Mr. Obama’s in 2009.

Good morning. It is 37 degrees and cloudy here in the Upper Hudson Valley, the forecast predicts temperatures around 39 degrees this afternoon along with mixed rain and snow. How about that weekend, America's actual silent majority showed up throughout the country with major demonstrations and rallies. Take note, it has to keep happening, don't stop now.

At 9:25 a.m. ET the DOW is a +7 and the price of oil per barrel is down. The market is poised to open in the flat area.

Read the short line I have in quotes below. The dollar is losing value which has its good and bad aspects. The investment world is now working on understanding President Trump's ultra-radical approach.

"President Trump's inaugural address has been interpreted as a retreat from America's global leadership role," said Paul Donovan, global chief economist at UBS Wealth Management. "The vehemence in his address is causing markets to reassess other parts of the campaign rhetoric as it seems candidate Trump is occupying the Oval Office with little moderation of tone."

So the typical Trump nominee, in everything from economics to diplomacy to national security, is ethically challenged, ignorant about the area of policy he or she is supposed to manage and deeply incurious.

"...we are transferring power from Washington, D.C. and giving it back to you, the American People.""January 20th 2017, will be remembered as the day the people became the rulers of this nation again.""We will follow two simple rules: Buy American and hire American.""We will not fail. Our country will thrive and prosper again""We will make wealthy again."

Let them not say: we did not see it.We saw.Let them not say: we did not hear it.We heard.Let them not say: they did not taste it.We ate, we trembled.Let them not say: it was not spoken, not written.We spoke,we witnessed with voices and hands.Let them not say: they did nothing.We did not-enough.Let them say, as they must say something:A kerosene beauty.It burned.Let them say we warmed ourselves by it,read by its light, praised,and it burned.

In other words, officials working on this counterintelligence investigation realize that, by this afternoon, Donald Trump will have the authority to shut down their probe. Those intelligence professionals pursuing this controversy will be his employees, and he’ll have the power to order them to drop the matter.

A woman held a sign that read “Look, Ma. It’s a racist misogynist” with an arrow pointed toward the guest line.“Watch your pussies, ladies” a woman shouted at female attendees.“I don’t think most of these people know what they’re talking about,” said Daniel, a Trump supporter, who asked that his full name not be used for fear of being harassed online. “It’s pretty ironic that they call themselves the party of anti-violence and free speech.”

Many people appear not to understand that inflation is a change in the units of measurement. Unfortunately, though the 2% inflation target is largely a feelgood policy, people tend to draw too much inspiration from it. Irving Fisher called this fixation on nominal price growth the “money illusion” in an eponymous 1928 book.

Mr. Manafort is among at least three Trump campaign advisers whose possible links to Russia are under scrutiny. Two others are Carter Page, a businessman and former foreign policy adviser to the campaign, and Roger Stone, a longtime Republican operative.

Good morning. It is 36 degrees and cloudy here in the Upper Hudson Valley, the forecast predicts a cloudy day with temperatures in the low 40s this afternoon. The forecast for the upcoming week through to next Friday has temperatures above freezing mostly in the 40s and 30s.

At 9:20 a.m. ET futures are modestly higher and the price of oil per barrel is up. The market is poised to open modestly higher.

If President Trump wants to deliver greater job security for Americans, he should focus on clean and sustainable industries where the US has a competitive advantage. Those are the sectors that are set to prosper. He needs to build an economy for 2050, not one for 1950!

Good morning. It is 36 degrees and cloudy here in the Upper Hudson Valley, the forecast predicts a cloudy day with temperatures in the 40s this afternoon. Even Winter is afraid to show up for Trump. Speaking of Trump, our new uninspiring and seriously flawed president will be handed the reigns to the world in 24 hours. Look on the bright side, the word 'pussy' is now out on full display as it were, found in all levels of discourse. Has Trump inadvertently helped the re-arisng of the feminine principle?

At 9:15 a.m. futures are slightly lower and the price of oil per barrel is up. The market is poised to open slightly lower.

Air bag manufacturer Takata is out of control. Toshiba is headed for basket case status. Mario Draghi is holding the eurozone fate in his hands. Let's be serious for a moment, who the hell can calmly talk about the markets right now, Trump, Donald Trump of all f-ing people, is about to become president. Major f-up America, what a f-ing joke, except the joke is on us.

Good morning. It is raining and 34 degrees here in the Upper Hudson Valley, the forecast predicts a rainy day with temperatures in the high 30s this afternoon. The future forecast still shows a warming trend over the entire next week with temperatures in the 40s and then into the 50s. Around here, there's no snow to speak of, it's January traditionally one of the two coldest months of the year, and instead we have temperatures in the 40s and rain. Hey 48 hours to go and then all of America can sit in front of the TV and pretend we're psychologists. Let the show begin.

At 9:15 a.m. ET DOW futures are a +35 and the price of oil per barrel is down. The market is poised to open moderately higher.

The most striking part of the investing day might be another speech from Fed Chair Janet Yellin. Investors will once again be carefully picking her words apart to determine if there is another base interest rate hike coming. Notice that investors are betting on rising inflation during the Trump presidency.

Tuesday, January 17, 2017

Believe Me by Bruce RobinsonI’m writing this poem andit’s a tremendous success,very very successful, as youcan see. It even says so,right there in the poem,I know this for a fact. Andin fact, I heard it froman extremely credible source,absolutely, I guarantee you,in fact, it’s really rather amazingthat, well, I hate to tell you,but this is going to be a big,big incredible event. I’m going towrite a great, great work andI’m going to make editorspay dearly for that work. Mark my words.

summary - Immunotherapy has proven to be effective against many serious diseases. But to treat diseases in the brain, the antibodies must first get past the obstacle of the blood-brain barrier. In a new study, a research group describes their development of a new antibody design that increases brain uptake of antibodies almost 100-fold.

“I think my father would be very concerned about the 50 to 60 million people living in poverty. It’s insanity that we have poor people in this nation, it’s unacceptable. We need to be talking about how to clothe people, how do we feed people."

By April, when filings from insurance company plans and premiums for 2018 are due, there will be a sizable exit — of insurers running away from the greatly increased and unpredictable risk and of individuals not able to afford insurance without the subsidies.

Good morning. It is 27 degrees and cloudy here in the Upper Hudson Valley, the forecast predicts rain and temperatures in the high 30s this afternoon. The long range forecast has the entire week steadily warming with temperatures once again in the 50s in a week or so. If this isn't global warming, then what the hell is it? It's January FFS, it's supposed to be unbearably cold not with a forecast that has the temperature increasing. The ground is completely snow free, and it's the middle of January. Meanwhile the new president thinks global warming is a hoax perpetrated by the Chinese. Oh yeah, we are really going to make great progress going straight to hell.

At 9:20 a.m. ET DOW futures are moderately lower and the price of oil per barrel is up. The market is poised to open moderately lower.

The world is bracing for Trump, I certainly am. The Brexit has sent the pound tumbling, there's a cost to nationalism and isolation. Meanwhile notice that there's been a huge cigarette company merger with British American Tobacco taking over Reynolds American. Smoking, if you smoke then just stop already okay, it's just plain ugly and pretty disgusting too.

Monday, January 16, 2017

Under a spreading chestnut-treeThe village smithy stands;The smith, a mighty man is he,With large and sinewy hands;And the muscles of his brawny armsAre strong as iron bands.His hair is crisp, and black, and long,His face is like the tan;His brow is wet with honest sweat,He earns whate'er he can,And looks the whole world in the face,For he owes not any man.Week in, week out, from morn till night,You can hear his bellows blow;You can hear him swing his heavy sledge,With measured beat and slow,Like a sexton ringing the village bell,When the evening sun is low.And children coming home from schoolLook in at the open door;They love to see the flaming forge,And hear the bellows roar,And catch the burning sparks that flyLike chaff from a threshing-floor.He goes on Sunday to the church,And sits among his boys;He hears the parson pray and preach,He hears his daughter's voice,Singing in the village choir,And it makes his heart rejoice.It sounds to him like her mother's voice,Singing in Paradise!He needs must think of her once more,How in the grave she lies;And with his hard, rough hand he wipesA tear out of his eyes.Toiling,--rejoicing,--sorrowing,Onward through life he goes;Each morning sees some task begin,Each evening sees it closeSomething attempted, something done,Has earned a night's repose.Thanks, thanks to thee, my worthy friend,For the lesson thou hast taught!Thus at the flaming forge of lifeOur fortunes must be wrought;Thus on its sounding anvil shapedEach burning deed and thought.