Significant fallout from Dirty Politics allegations

Dirty politics ...
costing National up to 3.8% of its pre-publication
supportLarge numbers of New Zealanders are aware of and
talking about the issues raised as a result of the
publication of Nicky Hager’s book, Dirty Politics,
according to results of an August 18-25 HorizonPoll of 1,752
adults nationwide.

By large majorities they find dirty
politics unacceptable and would prefer them not to be
practised:

• They are unacceptable to
59.9% of adults and acceptable to 25.8% as
a part of overall political
behaviour.

• 81.9% of adults prefer
that dirty politics were not practised in New
Zealand.

73.7% believe that, if it is
true as alleged in the book that a member of the staff of
Prime Minister John Key’s office accessed confidential
information held in a Labour Party web site, the behaviour
is unacceptable.

They tend to believe the Prime Minister
knew in advance about attacks on political opponents planned
by pro-National bloggers and that the bloggers did not act
totally independently of the National-led government.

More
than half of adult New Zealanders (53.1%)
believe mainstream media (newspapers, radio and television)
have failed to act impartially in relation to material
provided to them by bloggers. While 40.9% are not sure
whether the media’s coverage of all aspects of the
allegations made in Mr Hager’s book has been adequate,
there is a small tendency to believe that it has not
been.

Respondents tend to support the use of hacked
e-mails and social media information of blogger Cameron
Slater in the public interest than oppose it based on the
information allegedly being private and obtained
illegally.

More want the Prime Minister to launch an
independent inquiry into the book’s allegations than not
take this action (45.9% support, 24.7%
oppose). However, more think he should stay in
office rather than resign over the allegations made in the
book.

Large numbers of New Zealanders are feeling angry,
disappointed and disgusted as a result of the Prime
Minister’s management of the issues raised in the book in
the 12 days from its first publication.

The results
indicate the Prime Minister, John Key, has made
135,700 people who voted National in 2011
feel angry, or disappointed or disgusted. This is 12.8% of
those who voted National at the last election.

The survey
finds

• While voting intention shifts from poll to poll,
National’s level of retention this year of those who said
they intended to cast their party vote for the National
Party at the next election had been particularly strong in
polls conducted by Horizon up to the July/August survey
(before the Hager book’s release), at around 92%. In this
survey, conducted after the release of the “Dirty
Politics” book, National retains only 82%
of those who said in July/August they would give their party
vote to the National Party. Note that around 8% of those
who said in the July/August poll they would vote for
National are now undecided about which
party they will give their party vote to.• National
appears to have at least 3% less support
overall from the 18+ population following the
book’s publication in comparison with its position prior
to the publication. Analysis poll by poll since March 2014
indicates that the decline is probably greater, around
3.8% less support.

• While it remains
the strongest political party in terms of support from the
18+ population, if the current party vote intentions hold
National would have insufficient party votes to be able to
govern alone after the election.

This is a change from
earlier results showing it might have an opportunity to
govern alone.

This issue also appears to have driven up
Green party support among younger voters and resulted in New
Zealand First having sufficient support to determine which
main party would lead a coalition government after September
20.

Horizon Research conducted the survey independently as
part of its public-interest research series.

Respondents
are members of the HorizonPoll online panel, recruited to
match the New Zealand population aged 18+.

The survey is
weighted by age, gender, region, personal income,
educational qualification level, and party vote 2011 to
provide a representative sample of the New Zealand adult
population. At a confidence level of 95%, the maximum margin
of error is +/- 2.3%.

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