Built By Beilein

Discussing Michigan’s Sweet 16 team

1. In Michigan’s last five games, they’ve defeated five straight NCAA Tournament teams at neutral sites, taking what had been a rather average season and making it one of John Beilein’s very best in Ann Arbor in a span of two weeks. March rules everything in college basketball and the Wolverines have already cemented a successful season with the potential to do even more.

In these past five wins, Beilein has tightened the rotation: seniors Derrick Walton and Zak Irvin are playing over 90% of available minutes; Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman and DJ Wilson are playing over 80%; Duncan Robinson over 50% and Moritz Wagner right at 50%. Xavier Simpson and Mark Donnal play spot minutes as necessary to spell the starters, but it’s pretty much a six-man rotation.

2. Walton and Irvin spend as little time on the bench as possible, and for good reason. Plenty has been written about Walton: over the last half of his senior season, he’s become an elite point guard, commanding Michigan’s 5-out ball-screen offense with aplomb, draining threes and venturing on tough forays to the basket.

Walton’s ability to set up his teammates – marshaling the Wolverine offense into taking advantage of Wagner’s mismatches against Louisville’s wings in the mid-post, for example – to maximize Michigan’s offensive ability is uncanny. Overnight, he became something approximating a Nik Stauskas (or even a Trey Burke, honestly). Walton came in as a well-regarded recruit and was a starter on an Elite 8 team as a freshman, and even though his career was sidetracked by injuries, he’s fulfilling his potential, having become a star – capable of carrying Michigan on his back.

3. Irvin’s story is a little more complicated. The former five star wing was an unrepentant three-ball gunner with indifferent defense as a freshman, and morphed into a solid distributor as his shot abandoned him. He took leadership in a lost sophomore season after injuries to Caris LeVert and Walton; Michigan often rode with Irvin in late-game situations to mixed results and eventually found that it was better to run the offense through Walton instead of Irvin, especially during a February cold stretch. To his credit, Irvin has morphed into an excellent role player as of late – occasionally taking long jumpers, but deferring more and more. His ability to conjure a shot from nothing is still useful, and he’s a good passer.

Irvin’s work ethic really shows up on the defensive end: he works hard to get skinny over ball-screens, switches one-through-four, and he tracks shooters around the perimeter, working to deny them the ball. The improvement he’s made on that end of the floor over the course of his career has been remarkable. Michigan wouldn’t be in the Sweet 16 without him.

4. Walton and Irvin are program cornerstones: hyped prospects who were rotation players for a great team from day one, guys who have played so many games in a Michigan uniform, not quite talented enough to make a leap to the NBA but good enough to win at the college level. This team was built around Walton and Irvin, and now that the squad is exceeding expectations, full credit should go to those two foundational players – classmates who have grown into excellent leaders for Michigan. Beilein’s previous best teams (2012-2013 and 2013-2014) were led by youngsters. Not this season.

5. It’s too early to talk about Walton and Irvin’s legacies – as they still have games to play (and hopefully win) in the tournament – but, needless to say, they’ll be remembered more fondly because of their Big Ten Tournament title and Sweet 16 appearance as seniors. Of course, they could still carry the team even further in the NCAA Tournament. In Beilein’s tenure, there have been a few notable leadership tandems: Manny and Peedi, Zack and Stu, Trey and Tim – and Derrick and Zak. It will be extremely sad to see them go.

Rest of the post after the JUMP:

Michigan’s seniors have stepped up their play [Bryan Fuller]

6. Of Michigan’s six man core (Derrick Walton, Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman, Zak Irvin, Duncan Robinson, DJ Wilson, and Moritz Wagner), Walton and Irvin were the only top recruits – and the only ones from the Midwest, hailing from Detroit and Indianapolis, respectively. Abdur-Rahkman was old for his class and received his first high-major offer – from Michigan – late in the recruiting cycle following NBA attrition. Robinson was a Division III star as a freshman and transferred up after his coach left for another job, far from anyone’s recruiting radar as a prep player. They both came from the Northeast. DJ Wilson, a California kid who was injured for part of his high school career, had Columbia and Gonzaga in his final three along with Michigan, though he did have some Pac-12 interest. Somehow, John Beilein managed to find a future center in Germany. How many Michigan fans remember the name Robin Benzing?

7. Yesterday, Beilein notched a win over Rick Pitino by unleashing Moritz Wagner in the second half as steady scoring from the Wolverines eventually outpaced Louisville’s alternating buckets and long-range bricks. Wagner scored a career-high 26 points and made eleven shots against Louisville’s fearsome cast of defenders: he iso’d Deng Adel and got a spinning layup, ran over Donovan Mitchell on a drive and got a bucket, backed down and bullied Adel from the three-point line, got an easy look from a MAAR cross-screen under the basket, beat Adel with another mid-post spin, spun off of Jaylen Johnson at the three-point line and made a layup over Mangok Mathiang, slipped an off-ball perimeter screen for a layup, popped for a wing three against shot-blocker Anas Mahmoud, spun for a layup on the block against Mitchell, and pump-faked Mathiang on the three-point line for a swooping layup. As a consequence of Pitino’s choice to disrupt Michigan’s ball-screens and outside shooting, Wagner often found himself guarded by a wing, and he took advantage.

8. Like the Big Ten Tournament victory over Purdue, it was an atypical win for Michigan. The Wolverines scored a quality 1.18 points per possession – Louisville’s third-worst defensive performance on the season – after a strong second half, but only made six threes on the game. Derrick Walton dished out six assists but had more shot attempts than points. The bench only chipped in three points and Duncan Robinson was held scoreless.

Michigan’s round of 64 game against Oklahoma State was the basketball equivalent of both sides going at it in a first-person shooter video game armed solely with bazookas; fiery three-point shooting was enough to save the Wolverines’ season despite the defensive implosion. Louisville was much different than Oklahoma State. Pitino’s characteristically stingy defense deterred Michigan’s offensive action with its length and athleticism – not to mention their deep cast of shot-blocking and glass-crashing intimidators. Michigan took what the Cardinals gave them, which wound up being a steady dose of Wagner.

9. Michigan’s ability to execute offensively in the second half is a testament to how good John Beilein is as a coach. Over the decade he’s been in Ann Arbor, his unique style has become quite familiar. There’s his signature motion with differing sets of reads for any combination of looks the defense can throw at it; there are clever little set plays countered off of Michigan’s normal looks; there’s the simple ball-screen two-man game surrounded by shooters. It’s rare that Michigan actively tries to take advantage of mismatches, instead preferring to destroy teams with their normal offense.

Yesterday, Beilein instructed the offense to run ball-screens that switched wings onto Wagner and work the ball to him in the mid-post. Walton had been settling for (normally decent) jumpers that weren’t going in when he was confronted with bigs on switches in the first half. Wagner’s buckets against wings carried Michigan early in the second half when Louisville still had a sizable lead and was still scoring; the rest of the second half featured more of the Michigan offense Beilein has become famous for. Walton-Wagner ball-screens in the last few non-fouling possessions in the game sealed it.

10. Derrick Walton is the unquestioned leader and most valuable player on the team, something approximating Yogi Ferrell, Travis Trice, or yes, even Trey Burke. He wasn’t at his best against Louisville though, so his sophomore big men, Moritz Wagner and DJ Wilson, picked up the slack.

11. Both players blossomed after being inserted into the starting lineup this season after sparse playing time as freshmen; both were skilled shooting wings who hit unexpected growth spurts and are learning to play with physicality against other giants; both can look like future NBA players at times, flummoxing plodding opponents with quickness, dribbling prowess, and flair. The future of the program lies with them, assuming they both return next season. Wagner and Wilson enable Michigan to unleash an elite 5-out offense with 5 players who can put the ball on the floor and score, and each can dominate for stretches.

Moritz Wagner is a matchup nightmare for centers [Campredon]

12. Over the last five wins (all over NCAA Tournament teams), DJ Wilson has been superb, averaging 17.2 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 2.4 blocks per game over that span. Occasionally, Michigan likes to run a pick-and-pop with Wilson or enter the ball to him in the mid-post, but it’s rare that any specific offensive set is run for him: he thrives off of residual action, gets a few buckets with his length and leaping ability on the offensive glass, can hit drive-and-kick threes, and scores with an array of elegant fadeaways and hooks.

Wilson was the second-leading scorer in yesterday’s win, and his scoring bookended the game for the Wolverines: a few two-point baskets to break the seal and 4-4 free throw shooting in the last minute to protect a narrow lead. In previous wins over Wisconsin and Oklahoma State, Wilson spent long stretches as the five; he slid back to his normal spot at the four with an effective Wagner present against Louisville.

13. Beilein’s offense is one of the best in the country as Michigan has ascended into the top five in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency. It’s a very balanced offense. Derrick Walton and Zak Irvin are the team’s two senior leaders and, even though Walton has taken more responsibility as of late, they’re the only two players who can create shots for themselves and others. Moritz Wagner and DJ Wilson, the versatile sophomore bigs, have provided an inside-outside scoring threat that’s nearly impossible to guard because of their shooting and off-the-dribble ability.

14. Those four are the most important Wolverines, but Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman and Duncan Robinson are valuable role players as well. There’s only been one positive outlier game between the two in the tournament thus far – which was Rahkman’s 16-point performance against Oklahoma State (in which he also did a great job helping prevent OSU sharpshooter Phil Forte from getting open threes). Both are good offensive players:

Robinson is a deadly 6’8 sniper who sprinkles in a few savvy cuts for layups, Rahkman is a low-usage 3-and-D shooting guard who can make tough shots from straight line drives at defenders. Like most of Michigan’s players, Rahkman’s defense can be poor on occasion, but he plays a lot of minutes and has been better at ball denial and three-point prevention as of late. Robinson is a liability on defense, of course.

15. Xavier Simpson and Mark Donnal occasionally play out of necessity: both prized Ohioan recruits who contribute very little on offense, the former a diminutive point guard who plays tenacious defense, the latter a finesse big who can shoot threes, but whose presence tends to signal frequent collapses in team defense. Any positive stats recorded by either rank as small victories for Michigan.

16. Anyways, Michigan’s in the Sweet 16. On February 4th, they lost at home to an Ohio State team that wouldn’t even make the NIT, dropping their record to 14-9 overall and 4-6 in the Big Ten. There was November success with neutral site wins over Marquette and SMU; there was a stretch of absolutely horrendous defense in the first third of conference play. After that loss to Ohio State on February 4th, it felt like Michigan would have a hard time reaching the NCAA Tournament. It felt like it would be the third underachieving season in a row in Ann Arbor, although the first of the three that didn’t feature a major injury to a key player. People complained about John Beilein and it felt at least somewhat warranted. Few wanted him gone (and nobody should have), but it felt like the program had fallen so far from the heights of the Burke and Stauskas teams. It felt like he wouldn’t be able to get back there.

17. In the six weeks since that loss to Ohio State, Michigan is 12-2, with the two losses coming on the road in heartbreaking fashion to NCAA Tournament teams. Michigan beaten Purdue and Wisconsin, the other Big Ten Sweet 16 participants, twice each. They ended John Groce’s Illinois tenure in practice jerseys a day after a plane accident. They won four games in four days in Washington DC to bring home the program’s first Big Ten Tournament title in two decades – and the first BTT banner in the rafters of Crisler (after the program’s only other title, in 1998, was vacated). They’ve won five straight games against NCAA Tournament teams: a 4-seed, a 5, an 8, a 10, and a 2. Some of those wins came without good three-point shooting – wins that Beilein likes to call “gritty, not pretty.” Michigan runs pretty offense. They’re a phenomenal offensive team and a relatively mediocre defensive team. They play pretty basketball. Sometimes that pretty ball can be misconstrued as “white collar” by foolish Illinois centers. During this wonderful postseason run, Michigan’s wins haven’t all been pretty.

Bill Raftery says that Walton has a big ticker and he’s right [Campredon]

18. Any previous complaints about this team have been mostly forgotten. Derrick Walton has been playing like an All-American and has staked a very credible claim as one of Beilein’s best players ever in Ann Arbor. Irvin’s been absolved of shot selection self-indulgence earlier in this season and earlier in his career. Myriad defensive deficiencies are outweighed by the mismatches Wagner and Wilson provide on the other end of the floor. The defense itself has improved from atrocious to adequate enough, especially given Michigan’s offensive firepower. Michigan gave up 1.4 points per possession to another terrific offense (Oklahoma State’s) and somehow still won in the Round of 64, mostly due to amazing outside shooting by the Wolverines. Three-point shooting is John Beilein’s specialty, as we all know.

19. The Wolverines are on an outstanding run of form at the perfect time, and they’ll be playing in the second weekend of the tournament for the third time in the decade-long Beilein era. This is arguably his third-best team in Ann Arbor, or fourth, if you consider the 2011-2012 team – which ranked considerably lower in computer rankings, won a share of the toughest conference in college basketball, and were upset in the Round of 64 – to be better. Beilein’s balanced six-man core featuring two senior creators, two talented young bigs, and accurate outside shooting from nearly everyone has certainly gelled into a formidable squad after some rockiness earlier this season.

20. This team could make the Final 4. A national championship is won after a team wins three tournaments with four teams each – the first mini-tournament was in Indianapolis: Michigan survived against Oklahoma State and notched a comeback win over Louisville. The second mini-tournament will be in Kansas City, and if Michigan defeats Oregon and the winner of Kansas and Purdue, they’ll get a trip to the Final 4 in Phoenix for the final mini-tournament. Oregon won over 30 games and a share of the Pac-12; despite an injury to a key player, they are a formidable opponent. Kansas won the Big 12 (as always) and are rightfully a 1-seed; Purdue and Spike Albrecht loom as a possible opponent if they upset the Jayhawks. Michigan is 2-0 against the Boilermakers, but they’re still the best team in the Big Ten. Getting to the Final 4 would require beating two great opponents, just like getting to the Sweet 16 did.

21. We’ll see how it goes. Michigan has a phenomenal offense, a phenomenal point guard, and a phenomenal coach. It’s been a fun season. Hopefully it lasts a little longer.

Not because I think we're gonna regularly contend for championships, but because we occasionally will, and we won't be shamed along the way. We see the ugly in Louisville and Lexington and Chapel Hill. I'm just not interested.

waivered in support of Coach B and have never posted anything negative on this board. I hope the younger B-Ball fans (that have only been fans since our trip to the championship game) relax and appreciate this coach and the journey of this team. Truly amazing to see. We were 14-9 and 4-6...and now we are playing in the Sweer 16! Go Blue!

After 5 years of that, and then the oh so many close but not quite NCAA appearances with Amaker, it is hard for me to imagine how Bielien is under fire. I think my expectations may be lower than others, but wining the Big 10 regular season, and making the sweet 16 3 times in last 5 years (hopefully elite 8) is beyond what I was hoping for with Bielien when he came. I was willing to take a tournament bid every other year with a couple sweet 16s thrown in. He has completely out done my expectations with multiple BIG 10 season wins and now our 3rd NCAA tournament run.

We don't get Kentucky-Duke-Kansas ranked recruits (numerous reasons for that, some nefarious), but we can rightfully expect Michigan to get the very next level of players. I think one of the major reasons people became frustrated for the past 2.5 seasons (unitl this incredilbe and incredibly unexpected run) was that after the successes of '13 & '14 our recruiting appeared to get worse!

Then, when injuries hit Caris or Zak, there were no McDonald's AA waiting to take their place - there was Donnal & Duncan & MAAR and other fine gentlemen (and flat misses like Kam Chatman). That was frustrating.

I think this run should lead to a recruiting bonanza - but I don't expect it to. I think many young players these days see the game as a showcase for their talent, and having fun is almost more important than winning (didn't Louisville look like they were having a blast until about 4 minutes were left?).

There might just not be enough young men with the dignity & maturity of Walton, Irvin & Wilson that also have the talent to make deep runs into March regularly? Where's our Mango Mathiang?

Hope I'm wrong, and this tournament run will lead to an influx of top talent that can also thrive in the Beilein system.

Yeah recruiting has been frustrating, especially seeing the actual results that kids have under Coach B. He doesn't do it dirty, so he will always be at a disadvantage to most other programs. But if you are the parent of a high ranked guy, I don't know what coach can offer more to your child than coach B. He will develop them for life and as a basketball player. I am grateful he is here, and never understood the fire Belien crowd.

I think the Irvin vs Brooks matchup on the Oregon offensive end will be the determining factor in the Oregon game (assuming that's how we roll). Will be a huge test for Zak's D and hopefully show us just how far he's come. Would love to see Zak absolutely lock him down.

on Brooks. Oregon has been playing a lot of small-ball lineups with Brooks at the four since Boucher went out. He'll look a lot like Miles Bridges at that spot and given DJs success keeping Bridges inefficient, I'm confident he'll do similarly against Brooks. Brooks will probably score 20+ but if it takes him 25+ shot equivalents to get there, we'll be in great shape. Irvin will have possibly an even more difficult matchup with Dorsey though, who is a strong penetrator.

Of course, playing our starters all depends on Wagner's ability to check Jordan Bell while providing the help on dribble drives that he struggled with against Minnesota and OSU. Oregon will spread us out instead of clog the lane with bigs like Louisville and that's typically a danger spot for Wagner.

If he's not up to the task we'll also go small with DJ on Bell. The problem with that is they don't have a one-dimensional wing player for Duncan to match up with. He might primarily play when Casey Benson is in the game because he might have a really hard time with Brooks or Dorsey.

Definitely a much tougher match-up than Louisville. Really the only way we were losing that Louisville game was bad luck/refs/injuries. Oregon is a different kettle of ducks. Donlon needs to get Wagner in a good spot, otherwise we could actually see some trouble, maybe some X in there to stop the dribble penetration.

also has to defend Michgan's players. It might be worth the trade off to have Wagner at a disadvantage on defense if he has a huge advantage on offense, especially if there is a chance that he can get the Oregon defender in foul trouble without him getting into foul trouble.

I will admit, after the ohio game I was "That Guy" - I had seen enough of this team's floundering, disspirited play and I voiced that here on this blog. I asked for suggestions for new coaches. They were plentiful (all you calling for Archie Miller, et al know who you are)...

I take no credit for the change since then, but I do think Coach B AND the players looked at themselves and said the exact same thing.

Probably goes without saying, but the chemistry and outright love these players have for one another (roomies Zak/Derrick and DJ/Moe) has helped fuel this squad even when others questioned them. Keep it going fellas. See you in KC

Just beat the #1 offense and #1 defense on KenPom in two games. This team can run or they can grind it out in the halfcourt. They won yesterday because of defense and points in the paint, which I never would have expected for a Beilein team. This team has everything needed to get to the Final Four, and I've enjoyed watching it all happen over the last month or so. Go Blue!

Gonzaga is #1 defensively, actually, though Louisville is in the top 10 - I think they were #7 before our game and are #9 now.

We're now #3 offensively ourselves. Looking at the overall rankings, I believe we're 4-0 against teams higher-ranked than us (2-0 vs. Purdue, 1-0 vs. Louisville, 1-0 vs. SMU). We'll get a chance to pad that record this week.

I went back to some email conversations I had about the teams we might play and saw that Louisville was just slightly above Wisconsin in defesive rating, which gave me more confidence about beating them. Still a great performance against a great defense!

Lousville wasn't the #1 defense on KenPom. They're currently #9 at 91.9; Gonzaga is #1 at 87.3. Michigan may have eviscerated* their defense, but not enough to move the needle by four points per hundred possessions over their entire season. :-)

I have no idea if Oregon is great. They just almost lost to Rhode Island. But they won 30 games. And they did beat Rhose Island. But I've never actually seen them play basketball.

Are they their football team on the hardcourt? Just go go go, offense offense offense?

It seems we can handle a team that is offense offense offense (Okla St) and a team that is defense defense defense (Louisville). Hopefully we can take care of business and show them that Jordan is better than Nike.

They're at a KenPom AdjO rating of 118.8 (16th) and AdjD rating of 94.8 (23rd). In conference play, they had the best Pac-12 defense at 97.3.

They're an elite shooting team -- comparable to Oklahoma State -- although, for some reason, they're average at shooting free throws. They protect the basketball -- their turnover and steal allowance rates are almost as good as Michigan's -- but don't really get to the line. They do collect a lot of their misses, but not to the level of OkSt or Louisville.

On defense, they force some turnovers, don't foul, and don't allow people to make shots -- buoyed by the #1 block rate in the country, at 17% of attempted shots blocked. Even in Pac 12 play, they were at 15.6%. However, Boucher is their leading shot blocker with a national top-10 block rate of 11.7%, and he's out for the year. Their #2 guy is top-60 though, at 7.8%, so no slouch.

I think Michigan can score against this defense -- Michigan doesn't rely on drawing fouls, and shot-blockers aren't particularly effective when Michigan's cutting game is open. Oregon has benefitted from a low 3-point percentage allowed, which is something that defenses typically can't really control; they're average in preventing 3s from being attempted, which is something that they can control.

KenPom has Oregon as a slight favorite, but that doesn't take Boucher's injury into consideration. If Michigan can get any stops at all, and contain Brooks even a little bit, I think there's an excellent chance for a W.

BTW: Oregon is 6-4 in KenPom A games (toughest matchups: home games vs. top 30, neutral vs. top 50, road vs. top 80, or something?) and 8-1 in KenPom B games (next tier down). Michigan is 10-8 in KenPom A and 5-2 in B games. So, don't let Oregon's gaudy record fool you -- they've played a consdierably easier schedule than Michigan, and have done about as well against it.

they actually play relatively slow (229th pace in the country), although this is more due to long defensive possessions (i.e. they don't turn it over and get back in transition). They play a little faster on offense but are certainly nowhere near Ok St. They are very balanced offensively and defensively as others have mentioned (top 25 in O and D efficiency).

They boast the PAC12 player of the year in Dillon Brooks and the PAC212 DPOY in Jordan Bell. They are the best (!!!) shot blocking team in the country but that was in part thanks to Chris Boucher, who is now hurt. They have a backup nearly as effective at blocking shots, but they actually had been playing small-ball before he even got hurt as Boucher wasn't starting. Bell was playing the 5 with Brooks the 4.

I compare Brooks a bit to Miles Bridges on MSU and they as a team compare stylistically to MSU in a lot of ways. They're like a more experienced, better (turn it over a lot less) version of MSU, especially with Boucher out.

they are not the top 25 defense they were with Boucher in there. Probably more like top 50 because Bell is obviously still very good. That makes them even more on par with MSU. Good not great defensively, hurt by having to play small.

They're certainly better than MSU on offense because they take care of the ball.

To underscore that, MSU basketball was the pre-season #12 in the country and finished 1-and-done in both the B1G tourney and the Dance. For you trivia buffs, MSU football was also #12 in the 2016 pre-season rankings. 3+9 = 12 but I don't think that i where they finished.

Too bad James Earl Jones wasn't in the crowd after the game so John Beilein could lip-synch his "Michigan is the greatest university in the world" comment! It was great to hear it from Coach Beilein's mouth, though, but better with JEJ's fabulous delivery.