Caulfield Race 9: Racing Victoria Off The Track Plate 1100m

15/04/2016: Ruetigger has won twice from three first up attempts and I am tipping him for his third. He is a track winner over 1200m first up beating We've Got This in The Cove Hotel BM70. Sunday Escape is one from one at this track and distance in a BM78, the same class as this race, and that was off a 47 day break, one day less than today. What about the close second to Petits Filou in a recent barrier trial? Never underestimate Tasmanian horses when they visit the mainland and Concrete Johnny certainly looks well placed here based on the handicapper's ratings. Erin's Element, who defeated Concrete Johnny last start, is an 84 rater in Tasmania who finished just over 2 lengths from Nautical and I Love It in the Group 3 Bow Mistress and that's form enough for this BM78. Im A Flying Star finished a tick over a length behind Enquare and Pretty Possum (she nearly won the Listed Manihi Stakes at Morphettville last Saturday) in the race won by Miss Promiscuity in a solid effort. That form line is good enough to give cheek in this race. Shades Of Bella only had one run last campaign and it's fair to assume she injured herself somewhere along the line. She has won twice first up out of four runs and Darren Weir wouldn't be starting her in this race without thinking she was a chance. This is a very open race so go as wide as you can in the quaddie: I will be.

There will be a cracker pace in this race with my three likely leaders vying for the premier position quite early. Then we have occasional leaders, or very close on pacers, General Jackson, Canali, Don't Get Excited and Alias drawn wide and it is highly likely they will try and slot in as soon as they can, too. The mid fielders and backmarkers will get their chance if good enough but not until late in the race.

CHANCES

Racing Victoria Off The Track Plate 1100m

Order

Margin

Ruettiger

PLUS: Track winner, distance winner, four good track wins, won two races from three attempts first up.

A

0

MINUS: Nil.

Sunday Escape

PLUS: Track and distance winner at only start in this exact class, good track not a worry, great Petits Filou barrier trial.

B

0.25

MINUS: Nil.

Im A Flying Star

PLUS: Pretty Possum formline strong as well as Enquare, good track winner and has won at 1200m so 1100m no issue.

C

0.5

MINUS: Nil.

Concrete Johnny

PLUS: Tasmanian formline through Bow Mistress Stakes solid, distance and track conditions fine, can lead all the way.

D

0.75

MINUS: Nil.

Shades Of Bella

PLUS: Dual first up winner from three fair first up runs, distance and track conditions no problem.