A little bit more than patriotism. A little bit lower than jingoism. ---
Nirendra Dev

Thursday, November 12, 2015

Lesson from Bihar mandate: Voters - even if wrong - are always right

People of Bihar
represent a dichotomy.

They wanted to reward a person - Nitish Kumar - who got rid of the ‘jungle raj’ in 2005 and typically declined to trust
the Prime Minister of India Narendra Modi, who was promising them, a ‘better
Bihar’ and a cushion against second installment of jungle raj of Lalu Prasad.

That’s precisely the Bihar elections for you. I have
not answered the priceless question I posed with my previous blog on Bihar –
“who will have the last laugh?”

Today that answer has little meaning. Let us examine
what went wrong for Narendra Modi, himself a good reader of people’s pulse, and
his trusted poll manager Amit Shah. BJP’s negativism guided by ‘excessive
obsession’ with Nitish Kumar from the beginning of electioneering when the
Chief Minister was not quite yet on the radars for contest enlarged Nitish
Kumar’s profile to such levels that he along with Lalu Prasad’s solid support
base of Yadavs – who perhaps voted with vengeance - literally eclipsed the
saffron party.

Now, what went right for Nitish Kumar?

The success of Nitish Kumar-Lalu Prasad combine was
a huge political lesson that a good face and a good caste combination can make
a formidable force to unleash nightmare on most potent rivals. Nitish Kumar
made this year’s election a referendum on him and used his sober but personal
magnetism. A few Biharis can actually deny that that life had gotten better
under Nitish Kumar’s tutelage.

They wanted to reward a person who got rid of
‘jungle raj’ in 2005.

In the process, the jungle raj allegation against
Lalu Prasad too did not stick and Modi’s master ability in understanding of
crowd psychology to advantage too did not yield results.

“The voters wanted Nitish Kumar’s continuation and
many were fed up with Prime Minister Modi’s rhetoric and zero performance of
the centre in last 18 months,” rightly said JD(U) leader K C Tyagi later

These put the BJP on the back foot and at later
stage when PM Modi charged Nitish Kumar about ‘DNA’ – the local Bihari voters
decided to back their “own man” – Nitish. Moreover, the BJP’s ticket
distribution and allocation of seats to three allies HAM, LJP and RLSP
displeased party’s foot soldiers.

NOTA vote share stood at 9,47,185 votes
making it 2.5 per cent of votes polled and Manjhi's party - ironically which
even spoke of making their leader the Chief Minister - could poll only 2.3 per
cent and thus 8,46,856 votes. Most of these NOTA votes were BJP cadres’ votes
in protest against the manner Amit Shah handled the elections.

The RJD-JD(U)-Congress combine actually also
benefited from a different kind of backlash – the anguish of upper castes especially Brahmins as they
felt “betrayed” after BJP gave away seats to allies of backward class and Dalits
and tickets chiefly to Rajputs.

Thus even renowned Brahmin strongholds have been breached. Election results in Bihar therefore for Narendra Modi and
BJP are crystal clear message of how elections actually should not be fought.

In terms of fallout, post Bihar-debacle for NDA, the media focus is rightly on the crisis in BJP, especially after four elderly BJP leaders directed their tirade against Narendra Modi-Amit Shah duo. "To say that everyone is responsible for the defeat in Bihar is to ensure that no one is held responsible," the statement from 4 veterans L K Advani, M M Joshi, Yashwant Sinha and Shanta Kumar said. This was to contest BJP's highest policy making body Parliament Board's stand that sheer arithmetic led to the crushing defeat and that the defeat must be accepted collectively.

Paswans failed Amit Shah

The crushing defeat for BJP has sparked off a
debate among the political circle whether RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat had
deliberately scored that 'self-goal' for BJP by his comments
against quota only to corner the Prime Minister Narendra Modi's team.

Is Modi's loss a RSS gain?

The RSS and BJP watchers
know it pretty well that Mohan Bhagwat is not a politically naive person.

"Bhagwat is one of
the most political RSS chiefs in recent past. This statement was not made in a
closed door meeting. It was given as an interview and no one is convinced that
Bhagwatji did not know, he has handed offer a favourite fodder to Lalu
Prasad," remarked a senior BJP leader.

In fact, no sooner RSS
interview to Sangh fountainhead's own organisers went viral in media, Lalu Prasad had quickly latched on to the
statement and dared PM Modi to abolish reservation.

BJP poll strategists
admitted even after first two phases of polls -- wherein many seats with Dalit
and OBC people went to the elections, the writing was clear that things had
gone out of hands. “We know, no magic could help BJP recover that lost ground,”
said senior leader C P Thakur, whose son too lost the polls.

Cow: Negative Impact

Since coming to power in the May 2014 general
elections, Prime Minister Modi tried to make himself a ‘new Indira Gandhi’ – a
phrase borrowed from the BJP dissident camp. "The principal reason for the
latest defeat is the way party has been emasculated in the last one year," the statement from four veterans said.

For his part, Narendra Modi assumed the 2014 mandate was for him akin to 1984 mandate to Rajiv Gandhi. While Rajiv benefited by sympathy wave as his mother was mercilessly killed by assassins, for Modi the 2014 mandate came as people were fed up with a non-functional MMS regime - of the Congress ruled UPA. Thus they put in lot of expectations in the basket of Modi Sarkar.

Prime Minister cannot blame people of Bihar for their anguish against him as both the BJP and Modi himself had campaigned tirelessly for 'achhey din'.

After Arvind Kejriwal's Broom Revolution in Delhi, the caste idioms and
absence of anti-incumbency against two-time Chief Minister Nitish Kumar in the ultimate proved
nemesis for Narendra Modi-Amit Shah duo. The fallout could be huge politically. Amit Shah's exit as BJP president looks imminent. And the Prime Minister Modi needs to take the poll outcome of a governance-starved
state as ‘alarm bell'.

A fast learner he showed the right vibes when he gave a push to the economic reforms.

About Me

Author of 'Rainbows and Misty Sky: Windows to North East India';
'HEART ALONE' (A collection of short stories), 'Modi to Moditva: An Uncensored Truth' and other books, 'Ayodhya: Battle for Peace' (2011) ‘Godhra – A Journey To Mayhem’ (2004) and ‘The Talking Guns: North East India’ (2008).