Ranking the Sweet 16 teams

The best thing about the 2013 edition of our annual Super Sweet 16 column is that No. 16 is not going to take it personally.

No. 16 is going to laugh about it and maybe invite me to be dunked on at a later date.

When we declared Tennessee the least likely team in the Sweet 16 to win the NCAA championship back in 2010, the ability of Twitter to amp up the loathing was only beginning to be understood. But we felt it plenty. When it was Marquette’s turn in 2011, Golden Eagles fans were none too pleased.

FGCU? The Eagles don’t have the pro talent or the efficiency stats to suggest they are capable of winning four more games; they’re almost certainly not going to win one more. But their fans probably are pleased we all can spell the name right now.

They’ve been eligible for the tournament for two years, and now they’re part of the Sweet 16. They have gone where Richmond, Santa Clara, Coppin State, Hampton, Norfolk State and Lehigh could not as No. 15 seeds.

Being No. 16 on our list of the remaining teams in the 2013 NCAA Tournament, ranked in order of their ability to win the championship, is one of the greatest honors the FGCU athletic program has achieved.

Of course, we mean being available to be ranked is the honor. It truly is sweet being 16th.

Will the close call against Temple awaken the Hoosiers to the necessity to run their offense properly? Will the fact that running their offense correctly led to All-American Victor Oladipo being open for the game-clinching 3-pointer convince them of its value? IU came dangerously close to elimination, and its round of 16 game is the most difficult of all the most serious title contenders. But when the Hoosiers play their best, that’s a level no other program can reach.

It’s strange to see a team without an obvious high-level draft pick so high on this list, but we keep seeing C Gorgui Dieng doing things the pro scouts have to be noticing. His quickness, his strength, his positioning as a defender. It’s hard to imagine him not lasting a decade in the league on his defense alone. His destruction of Colorado State’s Colton Iverson got lost in the success of the Cardinals’ press, but if they win this thing, Dieng will be the reason.

The Gators still are the least trustworthy team of the elite challengers. They’re also the one with the best draw—and by a considerable margin. While Indiana will be sweating the complexities of the Syracuse zone, Florida will be figuring out how to cope with Dunk City. Which would you prefer your team to face?

How did the team that couldn’t guard Dez Wells turn into the one that thumped All-American Doug McDermott and held Ethan Wragge without a single 3-point shot? Did someone sneak Grant Hill back into the rotation? It’s a little disconcerting the Devils shot so poorly themselves, but who’s really worried about the Devils finding a way to score points?

It’s really this simple: If Ben McLemore wanders into the neighborhood of 0-for-9 against any of the opponents the Jayhawks play from here on out, starting with Michigan, they’re going home. KU can beat a just-OK North Carolina team playing that way, but not the Wolverines, not Florida and not anyone who’ll survive from the other three regions. KU can win this thing, but it can’t count on its most fearless player (Travis Releford) to bail out their most fearsome (McLemore).

It says something about the Buckeyes’ limitations as a championship contender that even with the dreamiest draw of the remaining high seeds they still rank near the back of this list. In the end, they just don’t seem quite physically powerful enough or offensively potent enough to win four more games. Two more? Absolutely. Three? Maybe. Four? That’s a lot of high-level games.

You know what’s scary? Even as poorly as Memphis played in the round of 32, the Spartans still managed to turn over the ball 18 times. The Spartans are the one high-level team alive in this tournament that Louisville would defend with an all-out press. It worked last season in the Sweet 16, and there hasn’t been enough progress in that area. But a frontcourt with two players who can score at the rim and one who can hit threes will be dangerous as long as the ball gets to them.

The Orange were much more disciplined on offense against California, but their rotation is getting awfully tight, and they still struggle to score inside. On the other hand, after it seemed he was trying to get up every shot he couldn’t take while on suspension, James Southerland hasn’t attempted double-figure shots in three consecutive games. Syracuse can win with that player.

PG Shane Larkin continued his evolution into an elite player with the step-back 3-pointer he made to take back the lead for the Hurricanes in their round of 32 battle against Illinois, suggesting we were correct to put them on the list of teams that have the necessary components to win the NCAA championship. But this is where the line is drawn.

Allowing Mitch McGary at last to take over the center position is a boost for the Wolverines. He’s been one of their most productive players for a couple months. But does he fix what’s missing from UM as a title contender? It would seem he does not. He makes the offense better, but can he shore up a defense that’s just too pliable to win Final Four games? His first challenge will be to guard Jeff Withey without fouling.

If we’re this deep onto the list and still talking about a team this good, this can’t be that bad a college basketball season—and it should be a heck of a Sweet 16. The Wildcats have three or four future NBA players and a great draw. It would be no surprise to see them find their way to Atlanta.

A couple of close tournament calls led to a Sweet 16 appearance. That’s a heck of a season. The Golden Eagles certainly have the ability to beat Miami and turn that Sweet 16 into an Elite Eight. That’s a great season.

We saw what happened to Saint Louis when Oregon soft-pressed and then dropped into a 2-3 zone. Can you imagine how much dreary Friday’s regional semifinal would have been if the Billikens had faced Louisville’s version of that tactic? The Ducks have a much better chance of keeping it interesting.

The Shockers beat Creighton, Iowa and VCU during the regular season and, despite a reputation for playing great defense and a substandard shooting percentage, have achieved an efficient offense through sheer force of will. This is a team you want someone else to play.