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Rory McIlroy shaky odds-on pick at British Open

So who have you got in this week’s British Open? It’s a loaded question, what with so many ups-and-downs on the golf major circuit in this year, as epitomized by the fact Bubba Watson won the year’s first major at the Masters and missed the cut in the second, the U.S. Open.

Just as confounding is the season Rory McIlroy has had. Installed as the pre-tournament betting favorite at 10-1, McIlroy has been unable to put together a solid first two rounds all year, typically following up a brilliant Thursday with a horrific Friday, just as he did at last week’s Scottish Open, when he took the first-round lead with a 64, then shot himself out of the tournament with a 78.

Still, with six top-10 finishes in 10 PGA Tour events this year, including a loss in a playoff at the Honda Classic, McIlroy stacks up as the man to beat.

Perhaps that mantle should go, however, to German Martin Kaymer, who demonstrated the same precision in his game in winning both The Players and U.S. Open that his countrymen demonstrated in winning the recent World Cup. Kaymer showed in winning both those events that once he gets in going, he’s got a gear that no other contender can match.

Kaymer, Adam Scott and Swede Henrik Stenson _ who is well-positioned to become the first Scandinavian to win a major _ are all the second pick behind McIlroy at 14-1.

Just behind that trio is a most intriguing pairing. Justin Rose, fresh off winning back-to-back events for the first time in his career, and Tiger Woods are tied for fifth choice at 16-1. Woods, who missed the cut in his first event back from disc surgery in late March, is clearly getting the benefit of the doubt from bettors who have missed his dominance, and it would be one of the most remarkable accomplishments of his career if he could come out on top.

Defending champion Phil Mickelson is alone at 20-1, followed by Irishman Graeme McDowell at 22-1. Mickelson has had little more success this year than the mostly idle Woods, with no top-10 finishes. Just getting to the weekend figures to be an accomplishment as he attempts to defy those who insist he has little or no chance of winning another major.

The group at 25-1 is another interesting one. Among them, Jason Day, Jordan Spieth, Lee Westwood and Sergio Garcia have yet to win a major but have certainly contended in plenty of them. Westwood’s year has mostly been a lost one after he held the third-round British lead a year ago and seemed in control. Even at 20, Spieth seems overdue, as does Day. For all his talents, Garcia’s negative attitude seem almost certain to continue to deny him success.

Finally, there are a couple of intriguing characters even further down the list who have the chops to make a run. One is Rickie Fowler, whose emphasis on majors this year helped him tie for second at the U.S. Open; the other is Jason Dufner, the defending PGA champion who has all the tools but can only rarely seem to put them into a winning package.

If there was such an option as taking the field against all of the above, you’d have to consider it. For all the quality these 15 players possess, there’s probably a better-than-even chance none of them will be holding the Claret Jug come Sunday afternoon.