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April 20, 2018

India may finally be able to acquire armed drones from the United States
that could transform the capabilities of the armed forces not just in
strike operations against China and Pakistan over land and sea but also
in operations against terrorists.

This comes after the Trump
administration came up with a new policy on export of unmanned aerial
systems that allows the use of drones to fulfill "'counter-terrorism
objectives". The policy comes just a day after US President Donald Trump
promised to short-circuit the long-winded process to sell the drones to
its allies.

For India, it opens up the possibility of the use of
drones in operations against terrorist launch-pads along the Line of
Control if the centre were to go ahead with the purchase..

The
policy does, however, require safeguards to ensure that partner nations
who acquire US drones do not "conduct unlawful surveillance or use
unlawful force against their domestic populations". It also says these
can be used in operations only when "there is a lawful basis for
resorting to the use of force under international law, such as national
self defence".

Sales of these drones can now be made through
Direct Commercial Sales from companies such as the US firm General
Atomics, which has already been in talks with the Indian Navy for sale
of 22 Predator B 'Sea Guardian' drones for maritime reconnaissance
operations over the Indian Ocean.

While India was so far looking
at unarmed versions of the Sea Guardian in a deal estimated to be worth
approximately $2 billion, the new policy makes it possible for New Delhi
to acquire variants for the Air Force and Army with weaponry including
the AGM-114 Hellfire missile which has been used by US forces for
precision strikes and targeted killings of high-profile terrorist
targets in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
So far, Indian armed forces operate a host of Israeli made drones
including a limited number of IAI Harpy systems, an anti-radiation drone
that homes onto radio emissions which it then attacks in a suicide
mission where the drone itself is destroyed after it crashes onto its
target. The drones India is looking to acquire from the United States
are larger, more heavily armed and significantly more capable.

The
new US policy clearly states that the US will allow the transfer of
drones for use "in situations where it will enhance those partners'
security and their ability to advance shared security or
counterterrorism objectives".

While the new US policy will be
welcomed in New Delhi which has been looking to step up the offensive
capability of its drone fleet, there may still be concerns on US
"End-Use Monitoring and Additional Security Conditions".

The new
policy requires the use of top of the line US-made drones ''shall
require periodic consultations with the United States Government on
their use".

Typically, this means India would have to allow the
visit of US military advisors to military bases to verify how US-built
drones are being used.

India has already let Washington know that
it considers all End-Use Monitoring to be intrusive though New Delhi
realises that US law mandates monitoring under certain circumstances.

For
the United States, the Administration's new drone export policy will
allow US firms to compete more effectively with foreign competition from
strategic rivals such as China.

According to Dr. Peter Navarro,
Assistant to US President Donald Trump for Trade and Manufacturing
Policy, the market for drones could be worth more than $50 billion a
year within the next decade.

"Already, we are seeing Chinese
replicas of American [unmanned drone] technology deployed on the runways
in the Middle East. In June, at the Paris Air Show, China's Chengdu
Aircraft Group featured its Wing Loong II, a clear knockoff of [the]
General Atomics Reaper," Dr Navarro said.