Graham could certainly win by a similar margin to McMaster in 2018, but South Carolina lacks the urban white liberal population that other southern states like VA, NC, GA, and TX have that make them competitive when minority turnout is similarly high.

Of course, that could change if Harrison is able to create a turnout machine that registers new voters and/or turns out low-propensity voters in massive numbers in a manner similar to Beto, but from what I have heard from colleagues is that his stint as SC Dem Party chairman inspires little confidence in his ability to accomplish this (Bakari Sellers was frequently named as somebody who would be more capable).