Problems predicted for grid in Texas

By Simone Sebastian

Updated 8:17 pm, Tuesday, May 22, 2012

Texas' healthy economy and expanding population are taxing the electric grid and could force the state to cut into its emergency power reserves during times of peak use as soon as 2014, according to a study released Tuesday by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas.

ERCOT, the state's primary grid operator, said growing demand for electricity during the hottest times of the year is outstripping new power supplies. The report determined that ERCOT won't be able to maintain a safe reserve if the pace continues unmitigated.

ERCOT tries to reserve 13.75 percent of available power generation capacity to ensure that the grid won't overload in cases of unplanned power plant outages or severe weather. But to meet the state's electricity demand in 2014, the grid operator will be able to maintain only a 9.8 percent reserve during peak demand, the study said.

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It projected that the reserve will drop to 6.9 percent in 2015 and that by 2022 the demand load will exceed power generation capacity in the ERCOT region.

“There are not enough projects entering the queue to meet the expected load growth of the region,” said Warren Lasher, ERCOT's director of system planning.

The Capacity, Demand and Reserves report provides a 10-year outlook on conditions of the state's power grid during peak demand, typically on summer days between 3 and 7 p.m.

During the summer of 2013, the report forecasts, the peak power demand load will reach 65,649 megawatts, while the grid will have resources to supply 75,337 megawatts. Demand will grow 4 percent a year later, though supply will stay relatively flat, according to the projections.

A megawatt of power can serve about 200 Texas homes during peak demand, according to ERCOT.

Though gloomy, the report forecasts a stronger supply than ERCOT's previous Capacity, Demand and Reserves report, released in December. More wind and other renewable power has come online, previously mothballed power generation has reopened and coal plants that expected to shut down have kept running, adding nearly 3,000 megawatts to the grid.

Over the next four years, an additional 3,657 megawatts of gas-fired power generation and 2,000 megawatts of wind power will be added, according to the report.

Lasher said programs that provide incentives for voluntary conservation of power and the construction of more power generation are the best courses of action.