Matthew Pouliot

Strike Zone

Notes: Scavenging for Saves

Since the May rankings were posted two weeks ago, four of my top 10 closers have landed on the disabled list: Aroldis Chapman, Zach Britton, Mark Melancon and Jeurys Familia. All except Melancon, who should return this weekend, are facing an extended absence. Familia could miss the rest of the season.

Familia’s absence, due to surgery to remove a blood clot from his shoulder, was another harsh blow to a Mets team that’s dealt with a barrage of them. Addison Reed, who started off as the team’s closer while Familia was serving his domestic violence suspension, is back in the role now and seems like a safe bet to function as a top-20 RP for the next couple of months. Things might change in July. Reed is a free agent at season’s end, and he’s going to be really difficult for the Mets to re-sign if he pitches well. With contention seemingly fairly unlikely at this point, he could be traded before the deadline, opening up the possibility that Hansel Robles or Fernando Salas will be needed as a closer for a spell. Familia could be back in late August or September if all goes well in his rehab, but if the team isn’t in contention, the Mets might prefer he simply get ready for 2018 instead.

Chapman’s shoulder seems to nag at him for a spell once a year, but this is the first time it’s been bad enough to put him on the DL since 2011, when he also went down in May with inflammation and returned after five weeks. The Yankees seem to believe a similar timetable will do the job here. Dellin Betances will get save chances until then and should do excellent work. The Yankees have gotten surprisingly strong results from Tyler Clippard and Jonathan Holder, too, and as long as that keeps up, they’ll barely miss their $86 million closer.

Britton is the one I should have been cautious about leaving so high in the rankings after his forearm strain in April. He made just two appearances on May 2 and 4 before returning to the disabled list with the same injury. The Orioles will be more cautious this time, and plan to keep him out until at least mid-June, even though it seems Britton would prefer to attempt an earlier return. Brad Brach still looks like the best bet there.

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American League notes

- Diaz was a late addition to the exile list after walking four of the five batters he faced Monday against the A’s. I think it’s an overreaction; he’s been shaky throughout, but that was just his second hideous outing and he was five weeks removed from the previous one. Before walking four on Monday, he had a 13/1 K/BB ratio in his previous eight appearances. It’s actually been the solo homer -- he’s given up four of them -- that’s been his problem, not the base on balls. Even with the way he’s been going, he’d still seem to be the bullpen’s best bet to throw a scoreless inning on any given day. Diaz has some of the game’s most electric stuff, and he hasn’t given up much hard contact aside from the homers (he’s actually getting twice as much soft contact as last year, according to FanGraphs’ numbers). There’s no reason he shouldn’t figure things out in a blink and go back to dominating AL hitters. Tony Zych is the favorite for saves in Seattle for now. Steve Cishek, in his second day back from hip surgery, got the save chance Tuesday and blew it, but he probably wouldn’t have been picked if Zych hadn’t worked three days in a row. Cishek definitely deserved some time to ease back into things before being thrown to the wolves like that.

- It was hard to see a path for Bradley Zimmer to the majors at the beginning of the month, which is why I placed him below some other outfield prospects in the May rankings. Then Tyler Naquin (in Triple-A), Brandon Guyer, and Abraham Almonte all landed on the disabled list, and, suddenly, Zimmer found himself in the majors Tuesday. Had Naquin, who hit .396/.441/.528 in his first 14 games back in Columbus, not been sidelined with a back strain, I imagine that he would have gotten the call. Zimmer has hit a fine .294/.371/.532 with five homers in 126 at-bats in Triple-A, but that comes with a whopping 43 strikeouts. The strikeout rate figures to make it really difficult for him to succeed in the majors. Still, he has solid power and is a prolific basestealer (9-for-12 this year, 38-for-52 last year). His skills could make him a mixed-league outfielder if he can keep his average high enough to justify regular playing time. I’m not particularly optimistic it will happen this year, though. It might be a short stay anyway. He’s not a bad stash in mixed leagues, but I wouldn’t suggest dropping a top-60 outfielder in order to pick him up.

- The Rangers lost Carlos Gomez for 4-6 weeks due to a strained hamstring, making Delino DeShields Jr. a better play in mixed leagues through at least mid-June. Of course, DeShields was already playing pretty regularly anyway. The Rangers could have called up Jurickson Profar for an extended look in left field with DeShields moving to center, but they’re still not thrilled with him, even though he’s hit a solid .306/.346/.490 in 13 games since being sent down. Instead, 28-year-old Jared Hoying was given the callup. Hoying was hitting .242/.336/.477 with seven homers in his fourth year at Triple-A Round Rock. He batted .217/.265/.261 in 49 at-bats for Texas last year in his major league debut. Hoying isn’t without skills, but he doesn’t do anything well enough to justify much of a role in the majors. Presumably, the Rangers will have the lefty-swinging Hoying and righty Ryan Rua split time for now, with Hoying playing center when he’s in the lineup. Neither should have any mixed-league value at all. If Adrian Beltre (calf) can return in 2-3 weeks as hoped, Joey Gallo could move to left field.

- Jose Berrios didn’t check all of the boxes in his season debut Saturday, but lasting 7 2/3 innings and issues just one walk were two big ones. One thing that did bother me was that he threw 17 curves and didn’t get a missed swing on any of them. His swinging-strike rate was subpar in Triple-A, too, though that didn’t stop him from posting a 1.13 ERA in six starts. Berrios is a flyball pitcher, so he’s going to need plenty of strikeouts in order to fulfill his potential. Fortunately, he does have an elite outfield defense behind him. If can stay away from walks, it won’t take a huge strikeout rate to make him a useful pitcher for the Twins. Still, I’m not rushing to pick him up in mixed leagues at this point.

- Rather than try Brian Johnson or Henry Owens again, the Red Sox will look at Mexican League signee Hector Velazquez in the fifth spot in their rotation Thursday. It could be a short stay, what with David Price (elbow) potentially returning next week, but if Velazquez impresses, he’ll be in line for additional opportunities. The 28-year-old righty had a 1.55 ERA and a 20/5 K/BB ratio in 29 innings for Triple-A Pawtucket. His stuff is underwhelming, but his splitter might allow him to miss just enough at-bats to serve at the back of the rotation.

- The Angels’ Cameron Maybin wasn’t hitting much prior to Tuesday, but inserted into the leadoff spot against the White Sox, he went 5-for-6 to raise his average from .180 to .214. More importantly, he’s 9-for-9 in steal attempts in spite of his slow start at the plate. Mixed leaguers in need of steals should give him a try while typical leadoff man Yunel Escobar is sidelined.

- Devon Travis, still available in about 70 percent of Yahoo leagues, has 12 doubles this month. It hasn’t translated into a ton of fantasy value yet, but he’s likely to be a very useful MI going forward, if he can stay healthy.

- This also might be the last good chance to buy low on Edwin Encarnacion. He hasn’t gone on a tear yet, but the strikeouts have come down; he has a 7/8 K/BB ratio in his last 10 games.

I’m not including Mike Montgomery, whose expected value comes from the likelihood that he’ll be placed in the rotation at some point. Archie Bradley was a tougher call; he’s getting treated more like a short reliever of late and might now be a legitimate fallback to Fernando Rodney. Because of the uncertainty, I didn’t include either he or J.J. Hoover, even though Rodney is vulnerable.

Jones is on the shelf with elbow neuritis, but I still think he’s the best bet of this group for saves the rest of the way; the White Sox aren’t only very likely to deal David Robertson, but they could do so long before July 31. Dyson is iffier, but I believe the Rangers will give him another shot if his performance warrants it. It’s not likely to happen within these next couple of weeks, though; while Dyson has allowed only two runs in 8 1/3 innings since coming off the disabled list, he’s struck out just two batters in the span.

Madson currently has a 1.98 ERA to Santiago Casilla’s 5.02 mark. I think they’re similar talents at this point of their careers, so I don’t think a switch is absolutely necessary in Oakland. Still, if manager Bob Melvin wants to ride the hot hand, Madson seems a whole lot hotter.

Since the May rankings were posted two weeks ago, four of my top 10 closers have landed on the disabled list: Aroldis Chapman, Zach Britton, Mark Melancon and Jeurys Familia. All except Melancon, who should return this weekend, are facing an extended absence. Familia could miss the rest of the season.

Familia’s absence, due to surgery to remove a blood clot from his shoulder, was another harsh blow to a Mets team that’s dealt with a barrage of them. Addison Reed, who started off as the team’s closer while Familia was serving his domestic violence suspension, is back in the role now and seems like a safe bet to function as a top-20 RP for the next couple of months. Things might change in July. Reed is a free agent at season’s end, and he’s going to be really difficult for the Mets to re-sign if he pitches well. With contention seemingly fairly unlikely at this point, he could be traded before the deadline, opening up the possibility that Hansel Robles or Fernando Salas will be needed as a closer for a spell. Familia could be back in late August or September if all goes well in his rehab, but if the team isn’t in contention, the Mets might prefer he simply get ready for 2018 instead.

Chapman’s shoulder seems to nag at him for a spell once a year, but this is the first time it’s been bad enough to put him on the DL since 2011, when he also went down in May with inflammation and returned after five weeks. The Yankees seem to believe a similar timetable will do the job here. Dellin Betances will get save chances until then and should do excellent work. The Yankees have gotten surprisingly strong results from Tyler Clippard and Jonathan Holder, too, and as long as that keeps up, they’ll barely miss their $86 million closer.

Britton is the one I should have been cautious about leaving so high in the rankings after his forearm strain in April. He made just two appearances on May 2 and 4 before returning to the disabled list with the same injury. The Orioles will be more cautious this time, and plan to keep him out until at least mid-June, even though it seems Britton would prefer to attempt an earlier return. Brad Brach still looks like the best bet there.

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American League notes

- Diaz was a late addition to the exile list after walking four of the five batters he faced Monday against the A’s. I think it’s an overreaction; he’s been shaky throughout, but that was just his second hideous outing and he was five weeks removed from the previous one. Before walking four on Monday, he had a 13/1 K/BB ratio in his previous eight appearances. It’s actually been the solo homer -- he’s given up four of them -- that’s been his problem, not the base on balls. Even with the way he’s been going, he’d still seem to be the bullpen’s best bet to throw a scoreless inning on any given day. Diaz has some of the game’s most electric stuff, and he hasn’t given up much hard contact aside from the homers (he’s actually getting twice as much soft contact as last year, according to FanGraphs’ numbers). There’s no reason he shouldn’t figure things out in a blink and go back to dominating AL hitters. Tony Zych is the favorite for saves in Seattle for now. Steve Cishek, in his second day back from hip surgery, got the save chance Tuesday and blew it, but he probably wouldn’t have been picked if Zych hadn’t worked three days in a row. Cishek definitely deserved some time to ease back into things before being thrown to the wolves like that.

- It was hard to see a path for Bradley Zimmer to the majors at the beginning of the month, which is why I placed him below some other outfield prospects in the May rankings. Then Tyler Naquin (in Triple-A), Brandon Guyer, and Abraham Almonte all landed on the disabled list, and, suddenly, Zimmer found himself in the majors Tuesday. Had Naquin, who hit .396/.441/.528 in his first 14 games back in Columbus, not been sidelined with a back strain, I imagine that he would have gotten the call. Zimmer has hit a fine .294/.371/.532 with five homers in 126 at-bats in Triple-A, but that comes with a whopping 43 strikeouts. The strikeout rate figures to make it really difficult for him to succeed in the majors. Still, he has solid power and is a prolific basestealer (9-for-12 this year, 38-for-52 last year). His skills could make him a mixed-league outfielder if he can keep his average high enough to justify regular playing time. I’m not particularly optimistic it will happen this year, though. It might be a short stay anyway. He’s not a bad stash in mixed leagues, but I wouldn’t suggest dropping a top-60 outfielder in order to pick him up.

- The Rangers lost Carlos Gomez for 4-6 weeks due to a strained hamstring, making Delino DeShields Jr. a better play in mixed leagues through at least mid-June. Of course, DeShields was already playing pretty regularly anyway. The Rangers could have called up Jurickson Profar for an extended look in left field with DeShields moving to center, but they’re still not thrilled with him, even though he’s hit a solid .306/.346/.490 in 13 games since being sent down. Instead, 28-year-old Jared Hoying was given the callup. Hoying was hitting .242/.336/.477 with seven homers in his fourth year at Triple-A Round Rock. He batted .217/.265/.261 in 49 at-bats for Texas last year in his major league debut. Hoying isn’t without skills, but he doesn’t do anything well enough to justify much of a role in the majors. Presumably, the Rangers will have the lefty-swinging Hoying and righty Ryan Rua split time for now, with Hoying playing center when he’s in the lineup. Neither should have any mixed-league value at all. If Adrian Beltre (calf) can return in 2-3 weeks as hoped, Joey Gallo could move to left field.

- Jose Berrios didn’t check all of the boxes in his season debut Saturday, but lasting 7 2/3 innings and issues just one walk were two big ones. One thing that did bother me was that he threw 17 curves and didn’t get a missed swing on any of them. His swinging-strike rate was subpar in Triple-A, too, though that didn’t stop him from posting a 1.13 ERA in six starts. Berrios is a flyball pitcher, so he’s going to need plenty of strikeouts in order to fulfill his potential. Fortunately, he does have an elite outfield defense behind him. If can stay away from walks, it won’t take a huge strikeout rate to make him a useful pitcher for the Twins. Still, I’m not rushing to pick him up in mixed leagues at this point.

- Rather than try Brian Johnson or Henry Owens again, the Red Sox will look at Mexican League signee Hector Velazquez in the fifth spot in their rotation Thursday. It could be a short stay, what with David Price (elbow) potentially returning next week, but if Velazquez impresses, he’ll be in line for additional opportunities. The 28-year-old righty had a 1.55 ERA and a 20/5 K/BB ratio in 29 innings for Triple-A Pawtucket. His stuff is underwhelming, but his splitter might allow him to miss just enough at-bats to serve at the back of the rotation.

- The Angels’ Cameron Maybin wasn’t hitting much prior to Tuesday, but inserted into the leadoff spot against the White Sox, he went 5-for-6 to raise his average from .180 to .214. More importantly, he’s 9-for-9 in steal attempts in spite of his slow start at the plate. Mixed leaguers in need of steals should give him a try while typical leadoff man Yunel Escobar is sidelined.

- Devon Travis, still available in about 70 percent of Yahoo leagues, has 12 doubles this month. It hasn’t translated into a ton of fantasy value yet, but he’s likely to be a very useful MI going forward, if he can stay healthy.

- This also might be the last good chance to buy low on Edwin Encarnacion. He hasn’t gone on a tear yet, but the strikeouts have come down; he has a 7/8 K/BB ratio in his last 10 games.

I’m not including Mike Montgomery, whose expected value comes from the likelihood that he’ll be placed in the rotation at some point. Archie Bradley was a tougher call; he’s getting treated more like a short reliever of late and might now be a legitimate fallback to Fernando Rodney. Because of the uncertainty, I didn’t include either he or J.J. Hoover, even though Rodney is vulnerable.

Jones is on the shelf with elbow neuritis, but I still think he’s the best bet of this group for saves the rest of the way; the White Sox aren’t only very likely to deal David Robertson, but they could do so long before July 31. Dyson is iffier, but I believe the Rangers will give him another shot if his performance warrants it. It’s not likely to happen within these next couple of weeks, though; while Dyson has allowed only two runs in 8 1/3 innings since coming off the disabled list, he’s struck out just two batters in the span.

Madson currently has a 1.98 ERA to Santiago Casilla’s 5.02 mark. I think they’re similar talents at this point of their careers, so I don’t think a switch is absolutely necessary in Oakland. Still, if manager Bob Melvin wants to ride the hot hand, Madson seems a whole lot hotter.

National League notes

- Ian Happ homered twice and doubled in his first three major league games after getting the call Saturday with Jason Heyward (finger) on the disabled list. I think Happ’s bat is major league ready; he’s probably not more than a .250 hitter right now, but the homers and solid walk rate would make it a strong .250. Still, I doubt he’s up to stay. Heyward is likely to be back in just a few days, and the Cubs’ bit players have all been productive. Even if the Cubs started giving Heyward regular time in center over Albert Almora and Jon Jay, they’d still have just two lineup spots for Ben Zobrist, Javier Baez and Happ each day. I doubt they’re ready to bury anyone to give Happ the playing time he’ll need to justify his presence. That said, I’d be really tempted to add him in a mixed league anyway, just in case.

- 28 teams with less talent on their rosters allowed the Cubs to pick up Eddie Butler when the Rockies gave up on him in January. I would hope most of them were already kicking themselves based on the way he threw in spring training. Making his 2017 debut Friday against the Brewers, Butler averaged 95 mph with his fastball while throwing six scoreless innings. I doubt we’ll see a whole lot of consistency from Butler in the short term; I’ve simply never seen him have everything working at once. Still, he has groundball stuff and both his slider and changeup can be strikeout pitches when they’re on. He’s worth the flier in mixed leagues.

- Andrew McCutchen is on a pretty typical home run pace, with six in 38 games so far, but his average is down to .206. He hasn’t had a multihit game this month, and even when he was playing better in April, he still wasn’t tearing it up at any point. I was pretty optimistic about McCutchen going in after his nice finish to an otherwise extremely disappointing 2016. It just hasn’t materialized. His line drive rate is awful, and while so many others are trying to hit more flies, McCutchen’s groundball rate is the highest it’s been since 2012. I still don’t think this is the end for McCutchen. His strikeout rate is fine, and his exit velocity is solidly in the middle of the pack. I no longer expect the kind of rebound I did two months ago, but I still imagine he’ll top his 2016 numbers. A .270 average and another 20 homers could still make him a top-30 outfielder if he gets enough help from his teammates.

- Content to go with Jose Reyes at short and T.J. Rivera at third, the Mets decided against calling up Amed Rosario after belatedly placing Asdrubal Cabrera on the disabled list with his thumb injury. Rosario is hitting .361/.401/.510 with three homers and eight steals in 147 at-bats for Triple-A Las Vegas. 34 of his 36 starts have come at shortstop, but he did play third for the second time this year on Monday. I’m not all that excited about Rosario as a 2017 fantasy prospect, but one imagines he will get a shot at some point. Reyes had one nice 10-day span before slumping again this last week. Cabrera is always going to be a health risk, and he might be trade bait in July. Rivera has been a nice surprise thus far, but I’m not a believer; his exit velocity sits at the bottom of the league and he still doesn’t have a single barrel. Rosario isn’t ready to hit for power in the majors, but he’d bring more energy and defense than what the Mets possess now.

- Glover was due to get the save chance for the Nationals’ Tuesday before the team’s lead increased from two runs to four runs in the top of the ninth. After throwing 25 pitches Saturday in his return from the disabled list, Shawn Kelley gave up three runs to blow a save the next day. Workload is always going to be an issue for him, and that the Nationals want to tread carefully there -- and that Dusty Baker really doesn’t want to have to make these usage decisions every day -- could lead to Glover taking over as closer. Of course, a trade for an established closer still seems the most likely resolution here.

- The Phillies finally got their first save in 2 1/2 weeks Sunday and it went to Hector Neris, with Benoit throwing a scoreless eighth and getting the win. One would think Neris could gain sole possession of the closer’s role with a strong couple of weeks now, if only the Phillies could get him some ninth-inning leads to protect. Still, any miscues would be costly and probably put Benoit right back into the mix.

- Brandon Maurer has a 20/2 K/BB ratio in 15 innings (and one of those walks was intentional). He’s allowed two homers, which, while not great, is hardly a disaster. Right now, though, he’s sporting a 6.00 ERA to go along with his 2.48 FIP (and 1.76 xFIP), putting his job as the Padres’ closer in jeopardy. Fortunately for him, Carter Capps hasn’t progressed from Tommy John surgery as hoped, though he could still be an option next month. I’d like to think Maurer will be better by then; he’s throwing harder and getting more missed swings than ever. If he blows another save right off, though, we could see Brad Hand get some chances in the ninth.

- Tommy Pham’s play will give the Cardinals a crowded outfield with Stephen Piscotty (hamstring) due back this weekend. Randal Grichuk wouldn’t seem to be on very steady ground at the moment. He’s never been a favorite of Mike Matheny’s, and he just hasn’t made as much progress as hoped this year, though his strikeout rate and walk rates are both a tad better than usual and he does have 11 doubles to go along with his four homers, Grichuk would seem to be a prime change-of-scenery candidate; his biggest strength -- right-handed power -- is sapped by his home park and the Cardinals no longer need him in center. I like him as a fifth outfielder in mixed leagues if he’s playing regularly, but he’ll be droppable if he begins to lose at-bats.

List No. 2: May surprises

I think most have noticed that Aaron Altherr and Brett Gardner caught fire and that Alex Wood was just named NL Player of the Week. This is meant to highlight some strong first halves of May that have perhaps flown more under the radar.

Most of these guys were bad in April, so the May surges are just bringing their numbers more in line with expectations. Ozuna is an exception; he cooled off in the second half of April after his early homer binge, but he was back at it in the first week of May.

Joseph had a .476 OPS in April, but it all of the way up to .801 at the moment. I had proposed a couple of weeks ago trying Michael Saunders at first base after Howie Kendrick returned from the DL, but there hardly seems to be reason for that now, what with Saunders sporting an OPS 110 points lower than Joseph. Altherr has to be locked in the lineup, so a Saunders-Kendrick platoon might be in the offing.

Samardzija has a 3.74 ERA in May, compared to a 1.03 FIP. He could still be a buy-low possibility in a bunch of leagues. I think the improved strikeout rate is here to stay.