Greece: why did its economy fall so hard?

With Greece's economy in desperate trouble, Harry Wallop explains how the
country got into such a mess.

Greece has long lived beyond its means and spent much of the last two centuries defaulting on its debts. Joining the euro was meant to put an end to all that. However, it merely seems to have exacerbated its problems.

It was no surprise to any economist that the European Union, at first, refused to allow the country to join the euro when the new currency started in 1999.

Quite simply, its debts were too high and inflation was out of control. By 2000, the EU finally allowed it to join, though there were suspicions at the time that Greece was operating a "limbo dance" – squeezing its figures to hit the stringent euro criteria, only for them to flip back to dangerous levels once it had entered. Indeed many believe Greece simply lied about its figures to gain entry.

At the time its inflation was 4 per cent, much higher than the European average, and was suffering from one in ten people out of work – a higher figure than currently in recession-hit Britain.

By joining the euro, however, it suddenly enjoyed substantially lower interest rates, because the it was able to borrow in euros. Whereas during the 1990s, Greece had frequently had to pay out 10 per cent or more (18 per cent in 1994) to borrow money, its rate fell dramatically to 3 per cent or 2 per cent.

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Ben May, Greek economist at think tank Capital Economics, said: "Their mistake was to go out, borrow money and use it to fund huge wage growth, rather than pay down its already substantial debts."

Greece went on a spending spree, allowing public sector workers' wages to nearly double over the last decade, while it continued to fund one of the most generous pension systems in the world. Workers when they come to retire usually receive a pension equating to 92 per cent of their pre-retirement salary. As Greece has one of the fastest ageing populations in Europe, the bill to fund these pensions kept on mounting.

Tax evasion, endemic among Greece's wealthy middle classes, meant that the Government's tax revenues were not coming in fast enough to fund its outgoings.

Hosting the Olympics in 2004, which cost double the original estimate of €4.5 billion, only made matters worse.

By the start of this year Greece's debt had hit €300 billion, more than the entire value of its annual GDP. This is unlikely to fall quickly, as its current budget deficit – how much its borrowing exceeds tax receipts – is running at 13.6 per cent of its gross domestic product, twice the Eurozone average.

Things have come to a head because the international rating agencies have cut Greece's credit rating, concerned that it will default on its debts. This has the immediate effect – just as when a credit agency cuts a consumer's rating – of pushing up the cost of its borrowing, setting off a vicious spiral.