Thursday, March 29, 2012

Who's Next?

Who’s Next to Join the 300 Club?

Milestone clubs in baseball are slowly losing their prestige as they become more and more diluted. I don’t know who the bouncer is for the ‘500 HR Club’ but he lets anybody and everybody through the doors with 10 members joining in the past 10 years (what are steroids?). What used to be a sure fire Hall of Fame ticket is now reduced to a Bud Selig hand shake followed by a full blown steroid investigation. As much as the steroid era has tainted the hitting clubs, the pitching clubs still have an aura of mystique. Two of the most defined clubs that come to mind are the ‘3,000 Strikeout Club’ and the ‘300 Wins Club’. If you had to name these two clubs on Sporcle, there wouldn’t be anyone that surprised you at the end. Everyone in the club belongs in the club and they don’t just accept anybody ala Northwestern Oklahoma State University. A lot of people say we will never see another 300 game winner but the people that say that are probably communists. While I may or may not have laid down some money in Vegas a few years back for Danny Almonte to be the next member, I do believe I will see another 300 game winner before I call it quits (Yes, medicine will be so good by the time I’m 100 that I’ll get to decide when I die). But who really has the best chance of all the current pitchers playing in the league? I realistically believe there are only two pitchers with a legitimate shot at doing it, as well as one dark horse who just began his journey. Lets take a closer look.

Roy Halladay:

Age – 34

Wins – 188

Roy is a mere 112 wins from becoming the 25th player ever to win 300 games throughout his career. He turns 35 in May but is a known gladiator when it comes to working out. Starting young is a major advantage and Roy was in the majors at age 21. Here is how many games he won each year: 1, 8, 4, 5, 19, 22, 8, 12, 16, 16, 20, 17, 21, 19. He’s been one of the most consistent pitchers in the game for many years and with an effortless pitching motion he is able to place the ball exactly where he wants it to go. In my opinion, accuracy is one of the most important attributes needed to win games as you get older. Not everyone can gas it 100 mph’s at the age of 40 (Nolan Ryan is smirking somewhere). Roy has a plethora of pitches as well, including a fastball, slider, cutter, changeup and curveball. Here’s a look at where Roy compares to other 300 game winners at age 34 as well as their win totals over the rest of their career.

Through age 42Eight years, 15 wins per season: 120 wins, 308 totalEight years, 14 wins per season: 112 wins, 300 total

Through age 43Nine years, 14 wins per season: 126 wins, 314 totalNine years, 13 wins per season: 117 wins 305 total

Bill James odds to win 300 games – 49%

Lt. Jenkems odds to win 300 games – 39%

C.C. Sabathia:

Age – 31

Wins – 176

This beast of a man in my eyes is the morning line favorite to be the next club member. He has double digit wins every year of his career and just recently signed a long-term contract with the winningest franchise in MLB history. He’s got the bats right now to give him a strong push these next few years and I’m sure the Yankees will sign some new studs as the Jeter era comes to a close to help C.C down the stretch. Of the 12 current 300-game winners who pitched primarily after World War II, none had as many victories through their age 29 year. He has started more games than anybody else in the league the past 3 years (with Halladay 2nd) and his second in innings pitched (with Halladay 1st). Because he pitches so deep into games, he gives the bullpen a very small chance to blow the game. He came onto the scene at age 20 and won 17 games as a rookie. He then proceeded to win 13, 13, 11, 15, 12, 19, 17, 19, 21, and 19 games. That means he has more than 15 victories in 5 of his last 8 seasons. That defines the word consistent. He has stayed healthy and only gotten better each year. Here are some various average win totals and how close they bring Sabathia to 300 wins:

Through age 37

Six years, 18 wins per season: 108 wins, 284 totalSix years, 16 wins per season: 96 wins, 272 total

Through age 39Eight years, 15 wins per season: 120 wins, 296 totalEight years, 14 wins per season: 112 wins, 288 total

Through age 40Nine years, 14 wins per season: 126 wins, 302 totalNine years, 13 wins per season: 117 wins 293 total

Through age 41

Ten years, 13 wins per season: 130 wins, 306 total

Ten years, 12 wins per season: 120 wins, 296 total

If Sabathia were to theoretically average 20 wins per season these next two years and then 15 wins per season over the following six years, he would end up with 306 wins at the age of 39. As long as C.C. lays of the hamburgers, I think he’s got a real good shot at winning 300.

Bill James odds to win 300 games – 48%

Lt. Jenkems odds to win 300 games – 69%

Clayton Kershaw:

The dark horse. The 23 year old phenom who just won his first Cy Young will racking up the NL triple crown for pitching. Kershaw will soon be the best pitcher in baseball in my eyes. The tall lefty who works out like an Olympian and strikes you out like you never called his sister back after the first date. He’s got a slew of pitches (I feel like that’s the only time I use the word slew in a sentence, much like only using wily to describe a veteran) that allow him to go deep into games and he plays in a pitcher friendly ballpark that was just purchased by Magic Johnson. I know it’s early to peg his chances at 300 but there is just something about him that gives me hope. He’s ultra competitive and has unreal lettuce coming out the back of his ball cap.

Bill James odds to win 300 games – N/A

Lt. Jenkems odds to win 300 games – 25%

Other notables:

Felix Hernandez- Age 25, 85 wins

Justin Verlander - Age 27, 109 wins

Mark Burhle - Age 32, 161 wins

Disagree or think I've overlooking someone? Comment then you poon-tang

1 comment:

Wins don't tell you how good a pitcher really is, its more a function of how good the team is...strikeouts, ERA, K/BB ratio, WHIP, and WAR are much better indicators. But I digress, my inner sabermetric geek is getting the better of me. But what about Mat Latos? Only 24 years old and has 27 wins so far. More opportunities to win because he just got traded to a very good team in the Reds,. Tim Lincecum? 27 years old, 69 (lol) wins. Matt Cain? Same age and wins as Lincecum. Jered Weaver? 28 years old, 82 wins. Those four I think cover it.

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