WEBVTT .SYNOPSIS...UNSETTLED WEATHER ISEXPECTEDTHROUGH LATESATURDAY, WITHSEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLYHEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE, WITHTHE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATFLOODING. THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY WILLALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TOPRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. WARMER AND MUCH MORE HUMID WEATHECONDITIONSWILL ALSO MOVEINTO THEREGION. DRIER AIR WILL STARTTO MOVE BACK IN FOR THE LAST PART OFTHE WEEKEND AND MONDAY, WITH AGOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLETEMPERATURESEXPECTED FORINDEPENDENCEDA&&.NEAR TERM/THROUGHFRIDAY NIGHT/...AS OF 714 PMEDT THURSDAY...AFEW CHANGES EARLY THISEVENING TOREFLECT CURRENT THINKING. AROF SHOWERSAND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TOTRAIN ACROSSNORTHERN NEWYORK. ADDITIONALACTIVITYUPSTREAM OVER ONTARIO POISEDTO MOVE ACROSS THESAME AREA FOR THE REMAINDEOF THE EARLYPART OF THE EVENING. HAVE INTRODUCEDHEAVY RAINFALLWORDING ACROSSNORTHERNZONES FOR THISACTIVITY. DONT FEEL THATANY WIDESPREADFLOODING IS LIKELY AT THISPOINT BUT WICONTINUE TO MONITOR FLOOD THREAT. HAVEALSO ADJUSTED THE QPF A LITTLEBIT UPWARD TO BETTERCAPTURE CURRENT ACTIVITYBASED ONOBSERVATIONSACROSSNORTHERN NY.PREVIOUSDISCUSSIONBELOW...12Z GUIDANCESUITE STILL INDICATING ARATHERUNSETTLED PERIOD. IN GENERAL, THE UPDATED FORECAST ISNT ALL THATDIFFERENT FROMBEFORE, BUT THERE ARE A FEW ITEMS THID LIKE TO NOTE:1. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY HAS BEEN SLOWER THAN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION , STARTING TO SEE SOMEELEVATEDCONVECTIONFIRE UP OFF TO THE WEST INONTARIO. THIS CLUSTER SHOULD BE MOVINGTHROUGH THE AREADURING THEMID/LATEEVENING. NOTSURE HOW HOWIT WILL EVOLVE, ASVARIOUS HI-RESCONVECTIVEMODELSARE SHOWING WIDELYDIFFERENT SCENARIOS AND IF ANYTHING SHOW IT WEAKENING.KEPT WITH HIGHER POPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT, BUT THEN DECREASINGAFTER 2AM ORSO. COULD BESOMELOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY T- STORMS. 2. FRIDAY WE ARESOLIDLY IN THEWARM SECTOR,WITH ABUNDANT HUMIDITY -- WHICH WILL LEAD TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY MIDDAY. DECENT INSTABILITY,MARGINAL SHEARAND LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS SHOULDSUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZEDCONVECTION, SOSUSPECT A FEW STORMS DURING THE DAY WILLBECOMESTRONG. SPC HAS THE REGIONOUTLOOKED IN"SLIGHT RISK".GIVEN THE HIGHFREEZINGLEVELS, HAIL IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT GUSTY WINDS/DOWNBUR STS ARE A POSSIBILITY.ADDED IN THE"GUSTY WIND"WORDING TO THEFORECAST. LOOKS LIKESTORMSDEVELOP JUSTAFTER NOON, AND SHOULD BE MOSTLYDONE BY EARLY EVENING.3. ALSO A MOIST AIRMASS, WITH PRECIPITABLEWATER VALUESABOUT 1.75", SO A SIGNOF LOCALLYHEAVY RAINFALLAS WELL.SOMETHING WEVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR QUITE SOMETIME. CANT RULE OUT SOMEMINOR LOCALIZED FLOODINGTOMORROW, BUT STILL THINK FRIDAY HELPSTO SET THESTAGE FOR SATURDAY. INANY EVENT, IT SHOULD BE ANACTIVE WEATHERDAY AROUNDHERE. SEE THEYHYDRO SECTION FOR A LITTLE BIT MORE.&&.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...AS OF 416 PMEDT THURSDAY...SATU RDAY WE WILLCONTINUE OURACTIVE WEATHERPATTERN AS AROBUSTMOISTURE LADENAIRMASS WILLBE OVER THE REGION. PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE1.5-2.0 INCH RANGE. ASWE CONTINUE TOSIT IN THE WARM SECTOR, ANTICIPATECONTINUED INCREASE OF WARM MOIST AIR. BY MID DAYTEMPS WARM TO THE MID 80S AND WITH SURFACEDEW POINTS IN THE MID TOUPPER 60S WE SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OFINSTABILITY TOTRIGGER CONVECTION. WARMCLOUD DEPTHSWILL CONTINUE TO BE DEEP ANDOUR FLOW WILL BEPARALLEL TO THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. THIS LEADS TO THEIDEA THAT ONCECONVECTIONINITIATES, THESTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TOTRAIN OVERAREAS THATHAVE ALREADYSEE PLENTY OF RAINFALL. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTEDDURING THIS TIME ALTHOUGH SPECIFICLOCATIONS ARE STILL NOT CLEAR AT THE MOMENT.BASED ON THELATEST COUPLE OF RUNS OFSOME OF OUR CAM MODELSCONVECTIVEINITIATION LOOKSTO BEGINSLIGHTLY LATERIN THE DAYON SATURDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS SATURDAYNIGHT. BASED ON A CONSENSUS OFHIRES GUIDANCEI ANTICIPATEBETWEEN 0.5 TO0.75" OF BASINWIDE PRECIP WITH LOCALLYHIGHERTOTALS IN THE 1-3" RANGE. BYSUNDAYMORNING ANTICIPATE THEFRONTAL SYSTEMTO PASS THROUGH THE NORTH COUNTRY AND LEAVE BEHINDLINGERING SHOWERS INWESTERLY FLOW.LATEST TRENDS