Prospects Bleak On Budget, But Deficit Outlook Bright

WASHINGTON — If Congress fails to agree on a budget this year, it still may reduce the deficit but probably not by the goal of $50 billion.

And there will be plenty of blame to go around.

``It will be a chaotic fall if we don`t have a budget resolution,`` said one Senate budget staffer. But he noted much of the savings Congress had hoped to make this year can be made anyway.

When House and Senate members started off this year talking about a budget freeze, they probably did not have in mind frozen negotiations between House and Senate budget bargainers. But at the end of last week, that`s where things stood -- an acrimonious stalemate.

The budget committee chairmen in the House and Senate, Rep. William Gray, D-Pa. and Sen. Pete Domenici, R-N.M., told Mutual Radio Network Saturday that prospects for agreement on the budget were fading.

Gray said ``our chances have moved from 50-50 to unfortunately 65-35,`` while Domenici rated the possibility as ``a longshot.``

There was talk at the end of the week about reviving the conference meetings, but meanwhile House and Senate leaders have agreed to write appropriations bills -- legislation that actually allocates money -- in compliance with the budget passed by each chamber, both of which call for saving $56 billion in fiscal 1985.

The House began passing those bills last week and the Senate expects to take up the first of them this week.

But that`s only half the battle. Congress also is attempting to reduce spending over the next three years and that is nearly impossible to achieve without some mechanism to lock in the savings in fiscal 1986-88.

In addition, there are many ``unspecified`` savings in the budgets, especially in the House version, and congressional committees are unlikely to make cuts without the impetus of a budget.

There also are many programs that are terminated by the Senate budget that continue in the House document and would have to be funded.

But some savings can be realized.

Both House and Senate committees that deal with the military are writing bills to comply with the budget, slicing about $27.5 billion off anticipated defense expenditures in fiscal 1986.

``We`re going to get the defense savings in any event,`` said Senate Republican leader Robert Dole. ``And I think we`ll probably achieve some of the other savings.``

Senate staffers estimated that even without a budget, about $35 billion in savings could be gained. But that number is really a drop in the budget bucket, especially since the deficit keeps going up and economic indicators of business growth keep going down.

``Based on the intransigence on both sides we may see the end of the entire budget process,`` Sen. Mark Andrews, R-N.D., said last week. ``We`ll have to depend on the appropriations committees in the House and Senate (to cut spending.) They could do it, they did it in the past.``

But in the past, $50 billion deficits were described as unthinkable and $200 billion in red ink was not even considered.

Sen. James Sasser, D-Tenn., expects a budget to be done eventually because ``the Republican leadership has invested too much in getting a budget.``