Sunday, April 13, 2014

Another week is in the books, and the Indians
starting rotation continues to remind us of Jeckyll and Hyde. Sometimes we see
the dichotomy not just from game to game or inning to inning, but from at-bat
to at-bat. I’ll get into Danny Salazar’s historically odd start much more later
on, but the offense is not blameless in the Tribe’s less than optimal start to
the season. The Indians have grounded into 11 double plays as of Saturday, 3rd
highest in the league. Santana (4) and Brantley (3) are responsible for over
half of those between the two of them, and while I don’t think that’ll necessarily
continue for the entire season, it’s been really frustrating to watch here in
the early going. Regardless of how good or bad the team is playing right now
though, take a deep breath and realize that we are now just 7% of the way
through a very long baseball season. There is a lot of baseball to be played,
and I think the Indians are going to be in contention and playing interesting
baseball throughout the season. So let’s get at it on a busy Lazy Sunday with
all the news that’s fit to link…

Former minor league pitching coach Doug Thorburn
knows more about pitching mechanics and instruction than anyone reading this
right now, unless Mickey Callaway is a secret Lazy Sunday fan. He writes for
Baseball Prospectus, and I’ve featured his stuff a number of times in the past
and will continue to do so because he is so much better at breaking down
mechanics and predicting whether a change is legitimate and repeatable than
anyone else out there right now. As you’ll
no doubt notice this week and throughout my time here at The DiaTribe, I lean
pretty heavily on the Baseball Prospectus guys for insight and analysis. They
don’t pay me for promoting their stuff, and I don’t get a free subscription or
anything, I just find that they’ve assembled a fantastic staff of major and
minor league writers who provide a service that no other baseball site can
replicate. It’s $40 to subscribe to them for a full year, and if the price was
$100 I’d probably still pay it (but don’t tell them that.) I’m not here to tell
you how to spend your money, but if you’re on the fence about subscribing, you
can do a 1-month subscription for just $5. Give them a try, and I think you’ll
be pleased with what you read.

Back to Thorburn and his “Raising Aces” series
though; Thorburn was nice enough to take a look at Trevor Bauer’s mechanics
this week, specifically comparing them to prior analysis from a November 2012
start. Thorburn loves breaking down Bauer’s mechanics, and is a believer that
the talented young righty can get it together and succeed at the major league
level. Bauer of course started in game 2 of the doubleheader against the Padres
this past Wednesday, going 6 innings and allowing 2 runs (1 ER) on 4 hits and 2
walks, striking out 8 and hitting a batter. It was an impressive result, but
one had to question the legitimacy of the numbers. It was against the
light-hitting Padres after all, and Bauer had teased us with glimpses of
excellence in the past only to regress to a mechanical mess in his next start.
Would the scouting reports agree with the stat line? Was Bauer really making
strides towards becoming a legitimate major league option? Thanks to Pitchf/x
and Thorburn, we have some pretty encouraging signs that yes, this was a
legitimate step forward for Bauer and not just a one-start aberration. First,
let’s look at Thorburn’s mechanical grades from Wednesday’s start in
juxtaposition with his November 2012 report card.
Again, this is Doug Thorburn’s report card, not mine:

Nov 2012

April 9, 2014

Balance

30

55

Momentum

70

60

Torque

60

65

Posture

30

50

Release Distance

65

65

Repetition

30

50

Overall

C

B

Bauer’s overall mechanics gained a full letter
grade, and he made strides or held his ground in every category but momentum.
Keep in mind that this is on the 20-80 scouting scale, where 80 would be Hall
of Fame level, and 50 is considered average. Nowhere on Thorburn’s card did
Bauer grade any lower than average. If you click on the link (which you
should’ve done already), Thorburn provides GIFs illustrating the change in
Bauer’s mechanics from the 2012 version to today’s. He breaks down the changes
in very clear terms, illustrating how this could be the Trevor Bauer we’ve all
been waiting for since he was acquired in the Choo trade with Arizona.
Thorburn’s bottom line:

He
is a student of the game who studies biomechanics and utilizes strategic
methods to get an edge on the competition, but his adjustments have often
overcomplicated his task and deterred Bauer from the critical component of
locating pitches. He made some notable adjustments again this past offseason,
and the early returns suggest that he may have found the mechanical key to
unlock his ceiling.

Going a step further, the Pitchf/x data
available on the also-excellent Brooksbaseball.net shows us how much better
Bauer’s stuff was Wednesday than in 2013. Bauer threw 62 fastballs, averaging
94.8 MPH and topping out at 97 MPH. While he was in the majors last year,
Bauer’s fastball around 93 MPH and rarely topped 95 MPH. That 2 MPH can make a
difference, especially when contrasted with his mid-70’s curveball. Brooks
Baseball also shows us an interesting change from last year to this year.
First, take a look at this chart showing Bauer’s release points from a 2013
start:

Then, here’s the same chart for
Wednesday’s start:

Why are the 2013 release points so much
more varied? Bauer used to change the side of the rubber he was pitching from
based on the hitter. He’d slide from the extreme right side of the rubber to
the extreme left. That’s a change he’s eliminated in 2014, something that might
be responsible for the greater consistency in his delivery. Bauer has always
been a tinkerer, changing his approach from start to start and even inning to
inning. The fact that he “only” threw four different pitches last start (no
reverse sliders) and is cutting back on the purposeful variance in his delivery
are signs that he’s simplifying his approach to pitching and letting his
tremendous stuff do the work.

A CATCH is the act of a fielder in
getting secure possession in his hand or glove of a ball in flight and firmly
holding it; providing he does not use his cap, protector, pocket or any other
part of his uniform in getting possession. It is not a catch, however, if
simultaneously or immediately following his contact with the ball, he collides
with a player, or with a wall, or if he falls down, and as a result of such
collision or falling, drops the ball. It is not a catch if a fielder touches a
fly ball which then hits a member of the offensive team or an umpire and then
is caught by another defensive player. If the fielder has made the catch and
drops the ball while in the act of making a throw following the catch, the ball
shall be adjudged to have been caught. In establishing the validity of the
catch, the fielder shall hold the ball long enough to prove that he has
complete control of the ball and that his release of the ball is voluntary and
intentional.

In my mind, Johnson established secure possession
and dropped the ball while in the act of making the throw. He held the ball
long enough with complete control, taking several steps after catching the ball
and running into the wall. But again, just the day before the play, MLB put out
new guidance surrounding what is/isn’t a catch. Jordan
Bastian digs into it for us here:

…umpires and/or replay officials must consider whether the
fielder had secured possession of the ball but dropped it during the act of the
catch. An example of a catch that would not count is if a fielder loses
possession of the ball during the transfer before the ball was secured by his
throwing hand.

Johnson clearly lost control of the ball
before securing it in his throwing hand. So by the letter of the law, that’s
not a catch. The issue here isn’t with the umpires on the field or the replay
officials, but with the insane caveat that a player needs to secure the ball in
his throwing hand before the umpire can deem it “caught.” By the letter of the
law, an OF could secure the ball in his glove for ostensibly the 3rd
out of the inning, jog into the dugout before transferring it into his throwing
hand and have taken the ball out of play, awarding all baserunners two free
bases. That’s probably never going to be called, but I’m mystified as to why
MLB feels the need to constantly shake things up seemingly for the sake of
confusion. New replay rules and new catcher collision regulations (which I
still hate) weren’t enough; let’s change a rule that has existed since players
started wearing gloves in the late 1800’s. I’m going to move on now because I’m
getting angry even as I sit here and relive the play, which of course proved to
be extremely significant in the Indians 2-1 loss. Suffice to say that while I
think replay in general is a good thing for baseball (getting the call right is
always the end goal), this tinkering and resulting confusion on the field is an
unfortunate and unnecessary byproduct.

Photo Credit: Al Ciammaichella

Danny Salazar started his second game of
the season on Thursday night, and he produced one of the most unique stat lines
I’ve ever seen from a pitcher, and it gets weirder and weirder the deeper you
look at it. On the surface, it’s strange enough; L, 3 2/3 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 2 BB,
10 K. Recording 10 strikeouts in fewer than 4 IP is something that’s been done
exactly one time since 1900, so that’s remarkable in and of itself. But Salazar
didn’t record a single traditional out; every batter either struck out, walked
or got a hit. The only out recorded other than a strikeout was when Adam Eaton
was struck out trying to stretch a single into a double. So Salazar’s BABIP
(Batting Average on Balls in Play) allowed was a “perfect” 1.000. He was
somehow both extremely hittable and utterly unhittable at the same time. He
gave up two HR and a double on the only three balls that the White Sox put in
the air against him, for a 66.7% HR/FB rate. He’s ERA for the game was 9.82,
but his xFIP (expected fielding independent pitching, see here for
full explanation as to how it is calculated)
was 0.48. These stats come from far too small of a sample size to be
significant, I’m just bringing them up because it helps illustrate just how
strange the outing really was.

It’s easy to see where Salazar got into
trouble against the White Sox. Looking at this strikezone plot from innings two through four on Thursday, all of the hits allowed by Salazar except one were pitches left in the
middle of the plate and from the mid-thigh to the beltline of the hitter. The lone hit from outside of the strikezone came on a single that Adrian Nieto reached out and slapped through the right side for a seeing-eye single. The double and home runs (indicated by the orange and pink squares on the plot below) were all right down the heart of the plate:

That’s a recipe for disaster, even with
stuff as electric as Salazar’s. He threw a couple of quality sliders and
splitters, but also left a couple of spinners and hangers up in the zone that
got hammered. Those mistake pitches aren’t always going to leave the yard, and
sometimes there’s going to be a laser hit right at someone. That didn’t happen
on Thursday, so Salazar ended up getting chased after 3 2/3’s. The good news is
that Salazar has excellent stuff and can strike out 10+ on any given night. The
bad news is that if he continues to locate his pitches in this manner, he’s
going to continue to give up way too many HR to be an effective starting
pitcher. Salazar is always going to be a guy with a higher than normal pitch
count. It takes a lot of pitches to strike guys out, and adding questionable
command and several walks to that equation is only going to hurt that much
more. It’s way too early to panic about a guy with Salazar’s talent, as
evidenced by the 10 K on Thursday. It’s also way too early to pencil him into
the #2 spot of the rotation moving forward, as evidenced by the walks and 5 ER
on Thursday. Salazar starts are required viewing for me (they were anyway), and
it’ll be interesting to see how he responds the next time on the mound. There
are adjustments to be made, and I have a feeling that Salazar and Mickey
Callaway will be spending plenty of time together prior to his next start in
Detroit on Wednesday.

Baseball Prospectus does a “prospect
10-pack” at the beginning of each week. During the season, the 10-pack
generally features players who are performing at a high level, but will
occasionally look at a highly regarded guy who is struggling. Sometimes the
10-pack has a specific theme, and this is one of those weeks. The
BP prospect staff took a look at the players they are most excited to scout
this season, and Nick Faleris chose to focus on none other than the Indians 2013 1st
round draft pick, Clint Frazier:

Frazier is on the short list of my favorite
amateur players ever scouted, with perhaps the most beautifully violent swing
this side ofJavier Baez. Over
the years he’s shown me a little bit of everything. I’ve seen him run a sub-6.5
sixty and 4.2 home-to-first from the right side. I’ve seen plus-plus arm
strength from the outfield (albeit prior to some elbow issues that stuck with
him through his senior year at Loganville and first professional summer). I’ve
seen him consistently square up the best of his contemporaries through the high
school showcase circuit, and I saw him hit 22-plus home runs during a BP
session prior to a high school game. Later that evening I saw him hit a ball so
far thatthe second baseman
congratulated himas he rounded the bases. Then he homered again. He’s set to
ship to the Midwest League early this summer -- how could Inotbe excited to see what he has in store
for me next?

So…yeah. Frazier was one of the only
players I didn’t get to see in action this spring, as he was dealing with a
minor hamstring issue in Goodyear and the Indians were playing it safe with
their million dollar bonus baby. He was walking around the fields, coaching 1B
during intersquad games, receiving instruction from coaches on situational
stuff and doing some light running on the training fields. I went down there to
see him hit though, so needless to say I was a little disappointed in his
non-participating status. But he’ll be in Lake County before too long (likely
after it warms up a little), and it’ll be interesting to see how he handles the
pitcher-friendly Midwest League. He’s got a violent swing and an
ultra-aggressive approach, so there’s a chance that professional pitching could
exploit that early on and he’ll have to make some adjustments. He’s immensely
talented and could move quickly, but he needs to learn how to be a professional
baseball player, not just a really good baseball player.

Photo Credit: Al Ciammaichella

Lindor watch takes a special focus this
week, as national prospect guru Jason Parks polled baseball insiders and his own Baseball Prospectus prospect
team to see which top prospect shortstop they would choose to build their team
around. Chicago Cubs prospect Javier Baez has been lighting the minor leagues
on fire, hitting 20 HR in just 54 AA games last season. The Astros took prep SS
Carlos Correa with the first overall pick in the 2012 MLB draft, and he’s been
drawing rave reviews since his debut that year. Oakland prospect Addison
Russell is a consensus top-15 prospect in the game and considered a potential
force on both sides of the ball. I expected Baez to be the runaway winner of
this survey, with Correa coming in second because of his offensive potential
and Lindor and Russell to come in 3rd and 4th in some
order. Boy was I wrong.

Lindor collected six of the ten industry
votes to easily carry that poll. He also scored seven of the fourteen BP votes,
to finish with 13 of the 24 possible votes. No other SS tallied more than 5
(Baez). I was both a little surprised and extremely excited after reading the
article, as all of those that preferred Lindor talked about his superior
defense and makeup, and his underrated potential with the bat as well. All
agreed that he has the highest floor of any SS prospect in the minors, and has
the defensive chops to succeed at the position at the highest level of the
game. As
Parks himself says about his choice of Lindor:

While I can’t speak for those who cast votes for Lindor
over Baez, I can echo the preference and explain my own choice, even if it
comes off a bit skewed. I think Javier Baez is the superior prospect, a player
who has dazzled me with his bat speed since he signed, and pushed me to the
point of Baezmania this spring with his offensive firestorm. But to the
specific question being asked, as much as I love Baez and his pornographic offensive
potential, the player I would look to build a franchise around is Francisco
Lindor, mostly for the reasons that were so aptly articulated by Nick Faleris
and Chris Mellen. Give me the guy I can pencil in at shortstop for the next
decade who brings near-elite defensive skills to the position, in addition to a
switch-hitting profile at the plate with on-base potential and gap power.

As for the industry vote--even though it’s just a small
sample of front office opinion—it does speak to the value baseball attaches to
premium defenders at premium spots, as well as the intangibles qualities that
are sought in a franchise face. While not always documented in specific detail,
several of the debates and discussions with industry personnel and prospect
team staff centered around the safety and security of Lindor’s profile as
compared to the volatility and uncertainty of Baez’s—both in terms of baseball
skill and makeup—even though it was universally acknowledged that Baez held the
highest ceiling and most impact potential should he maximize his physical
tools. Baez has the most “come back to bite you on the ass potential” of
anybody in the minors, but when it comes down to it, the majority of people
were willing to accept that possibility in favor of a more stable player,
despite the lower ceiling.

With the possible exception of catcher,
shortstop is the most important defensive position on the field. A spectacular
defensive shortstop can offset a lot of offensive deficiencies, something
Indians fans should know better than most after having watched Omar Vizquel at
the corner of Carnegie and Ontario for so long. Lindor is projected to offer
more value with the glove than with the bat, but the bat isn’t going to be
lifeless. He’s a switch hitter with a solid approach and a good command of the
strike zone, and is filling out to the point where he could have slightly below
average power. That’s an incredible prospect, one that I can’t wait to see in
an Indians uniform. Oh, and he hit a walk-off HR in the 13th inning
of Friday night’s game, giving him as many HR in 2014 (2) as he hit in all of 2013.
I’m going to get to see Lindor in a few days when the RubberDucks travel to
Bowie to take on the Baysox, and although I’ve watched him play over a dozen
times already, I can’t wait to see what he has in store for me this time out.

Photo Credit: Al Ciammaichella

Speaking of minor league performances, I
was in Frederick, MD this week to see the Carolina Mudcats, and was able to see
Dylan Baker make the first A+ start of his career. All Baker did was set down
all 18 hitters he faced, hurling 6 perfect innings to earn the victory. Baker’s
fastball sat in the 94-96 MPH range with some nice arm-side run, and he flashed
a plus curveball and slider as well. He did a really nice job commanding his
fastball in the strike zone, getting ahead of hitters all night and inducing
weak contact with his offspeed stuff. The first curveball he broke off locked
up Frederick’s #3 hitter for a strikeout, and showed tight spin with excellent
11-5 movement. Baker only threw a few changeups during his start, but was
clearly working on getting a feel for the pitch as he threw 2-3 in between
every inning during his warm-up tosses. Baker was my #25 prospect in this
offseason’s countdown, but I hadn’t seen him pitch like he did on Tuesday
before. If he keeps throwing 3 potential above-average pitches, he could end up
in the top-10 of next year’s list.

Last season’s extremes are already
starting to show signs that they’re regressing to the mean, as the Indians 17-2
record against the White Sox last year isn’t going to be repeated in 2014. The
White Sox are better in 2014 than they were last year, but there’s also a
pretty significant luck factor involved when you win 17 of 19 against one
opponent, and that luck is something that varies significantly from season to
season. The good news is that the Indians aren’t likely to go 4-15 against the
Tigers again this year, with the same caveats applying in that matchup. We’ll
get to see pretty soon, as after an off-day tomorrow the Indians travel to the
Motor City to renew their rivalry with the Central Division powerhouse Tigers.
Will the rivalry be as one-sided as it was in 2013? I don’t think so, and here’s
an early chance for the Indians to show the Tigers that it won’t be a cakewalk
to the Central Division crown. It’s just a three-game series in a 162 game
season, but I think it’s important for the Indians to go into Detroit and come
out with a series victory. After what happened last year, the club needs to
show both the Tigers and the fans that we won’t see another 4-15 record against
the AL Central favorite.

Sunday, April 06, 2014

Opening week has come and gone, and the Indians sit
in 2nd place in the AL Central with a 3-2 record after the season’s
first five games. We’ve woken up bleary-eyed after late night wins on the west
coast, seen Swisher give an O-H-I-O to the crowd after hitting a go-ahead HR,
watched Tony Plush giveth and taketh away, Kluberbot struggle and Masty shine. Thundercat
Salazar didn’t have his best stuff, but battled through the home opener to give
the offense a change to wake up. Lever Yan Gomes did Yan Gomes things, throwing
out runners foolish enough to test his arm and hitting a big HR in the opener
to wake up the slumbering offense. Blake Wood impressed with his high-90’s
fastball. Cookie Carrasco was his consistently inconsistent self. As Jordan Bastian tweeted last night, Indians SP other than Justin Masterson have combined for a 6.75 ERA, 2.14 WHIP and 1.42 K/BB in the early going. The fact that the Indians are 3-2 despite the spotty starting pitching the first turn through the rotation is actually a pretty encouraging sign. All in all, there’s
really not a whole lot that we can really determine from such a small sample size, other
than enjoyment that Indians baseball is finally back for the next 6 (or
hopefully 7) months.

In addition to all of the pageantry that comes along
with the first week of the regular season on the field, there was plenty of action
off the field from the front office this week. And unlike the Masterson news that
came out a couple of weeks ago, the recent developments from the front office
have been overwhelmingly positive. Let’s start with the “smaller” of the two
contract extensions that were announced this week, that of Indians catcher Yan
Gomes. The
Indians announced that they signed Gomes to a 6-year, $23 million extension
that will keep Gomes in an Indians uniform through 2019.
In addition to the guaranteed money, the Indians hold club options in 2020 ($9
million) and 2021 ($11 million). It’s the biggest pre-arbitration contract for
a catcher in baseball history, and the Indians gave it to a guy with barely a
full season of MLB service time. They clearly feel that Gomes was a huge part
of their success last year, and that keeping him in an Indians uniform
long-term will keep the organization set at the catcher position for the length
of the contract. To understand why the front office did what they did with the
Gomes contract, one only needs to look
back a couple of weeks to my interview with Mark Shapiro.
The club president came out with flowery and unsolicited praise for Gomes’ work
both behind and at the plate, describing Gomes as one of the main “levers” that
were pulled to improve the team last season. Not only does Gomes provide
right-handed power (.826 OPS in 293 AB last season), his well-rounded defensive
game helps control the opposition’s running game and his pitchers get calls
around the periphery of the strike zone.

The point of this article is not to rag on Carlos
Santana’s defense. I’m just trying to illustrate just how much of a difference
the Santana-Gomes switch behind the plate could make over an entire year. Forty
runs over a season can easily be the difference between making the playoffs and
not making the playoffs for a club like the Indians. And it’s not just framing;
BP tells us that in 2013, Gomes
saved 7 runs with his blocking ability behind the plate
(Santana was exactly neutral in 2013, neither
saving a run nor giving any up with his blocking).
So that’s a 47 run difference between Gomes and Santana defensively. Add to
that his fantastic 41% caught stealing rate in 2013 (2nd in the AL;
league average was 26%, and Santana was at 18% last year), and you begin to see
just how impactful Gomes can be behind the plate. Defensive metrics, especially
the framing statistics, are generally much more consistent and less susceptible
to regression than offensive stats. There’s no BABIP to consider (Gomes’ was
.342 last year for the record; high, but not abnormally so). Defense,
especially behind the plate, is something that players have a lot of control
over. Even if Gomes’ offense proves to be a total fluke (which I doubt will be
the case), he’ll be worth the AAV throughout the contract based on his defense
alone. Oh, and in case you didn’t notice, a guy by the name of Max Marchi was
one of the architects of BP’s framing data, including their predictive
modeling. That would be the same Max Marchi that the Indians hired earlier this
offseason. Think that’s just a random coincidence? I sure don’t. The Indians
now control Gomes through at least his age 31 season, and hold club options for
age 32-33. If they’re right about his ability at and behind the plate, this
contract is going to be a fantastic value for the team.

In addition to the Gomes deal, the Indians extended
the contract of 2013 all-star 2B Jason Kipnis on the morning of the home
opener. The deal gives Kipnis $52.5 million through the 2019 season, and also
includes a club option for 2020 ($16.5 million). Kipnis was scheduled to be a
free agent following the 2017 season, so this deal buys out his arbitration
years as well as two seasons of free agency (with a club option for a third). That
means Kip will be an Indian through at least his age 32 season, so feel free to
buy a #22 jersey with at least some degree of confidence that it won’t be
obsolete in the near future. The contract provides cost certainty through Kip’s
arbitration seasons, buys out two years of what are likely to be expensive free
agency, and provides flexibility on the back end with a club option. It’s not a
steal for the club, nor is it an overpay. Both sides gave a little to get
Kipnis extended and to secure his future on the North Coast. As expected, Jon
over at Waiting For Next Year hits the nail on the head with his take on the
deal:

I
think this is a really good deal for the club. It's good because Kipnis is
their best player and they locked him up for what the smart money would suggest
will the best years of his career (let's not forget that the aging curves
suggest he's about to get better, not worse). It's
good because the replacement cost for an All-Star 2B will only go up in the
next four years. It's good because he's probably the third best 2B in the
league, and the youngest of that group. It's good because he's a fan-favorite,
and that's a real thing a team like this should occasionally care about.

Photo Credit: Al Ciammaichella

The deal is very similar to the contract that
Cardinals 2B Matt Carpenter signed earlier this offseason (Kipnis got just
$500k more overall), and the
always-fantastic David Cameron over at Fangraphs was nice enough to break down
the respective deals for us. Carpenter is about a
year and a half older than Kipnis, and doesn’t have the track record that the
Indians 2B has, but he also had a better offensive season than Kip last year. Cameron
does an exhaustive rundown of the two players, trying to decide which one he
likes better now and over the life of the contract. It’s a difficult decision, as
both players are excellent and both are signed to contracts that provide them
with long-term security at a reasonable rate for their respective clubs. In the
end though, he gives the slight edge to…well, I’ll let him tell you himself:

Going forward, I think I’d take Kipnis; the age and
athleticism do matter, and all things equal, I think you’d rather have a
physically gifted guy than someone who has probably already maxed out his
tools. But, right now, Carpenter may very well be the better player, especially
if we’re viewing them outside of the context of their current organizations and
give Carpenter credit for being able to play second base at a reasonable level.
So, I don’t choose Kipnis with any kind of strong conviction. Both are
terrific, and the Indians and Cardinals should be glad that they each have one
of the game’s better young players under team control for the next six years.

The Indians now have 16 current major league players
under club control through at least the 2016 season (full
list can be found here). And that list doesn’t even include
Francisco Lindor, Trevor Bauer, Tyler Naquin, Clint Frazier or any of the other
top prospects in the Indians organization. The club has cost controlled talent
locked up, and with a little influx in revenue, they’re going to be able to
spend for a couple of pieces to augment the in-house talent that’s already on
the North Coast. Cost certainty is a big deal for the Indians, and they can now
basically pencil in the club’s payroll for the next three seasons with a pretty
high degree of confidence.

While the Indians were busy locking up their core
guys, Central Division nemesis Detroit came up with a contract extension of
their own. The Tigers inked the 2nd best position player in baseball
to a…wait for it…8-year, $248 million contract extension. They did this two
full seasons prior to Miggy Cabrera reaching free agency. Just for good
measure, Cabrera got a pair of $30 million vesting options at the end of the
deal. The options vest if Cabrera finishes in the top-10 of the MVP voting in
the season prior to the option year. It’s an insane amount of money to pay a
guy through at least his age-40 season, even a guy as talented as Cabrera. Ben
Lindbergh of Baseball Prospectus does a fantastic job encapsulating the
concerns with the contract, so
I’ll sample from his long and extremely comprehensive (no subscription required,
so go read the whole thing) piece here:

The Tigers, unlike St. Louis, haven’t laid the groundwork
to succeed without their superstar. Put yourself in the place of owner Mike
Illitch (who’s old enough not to worry about the back-end of Cabrera’s
contract) and GM Dave Dombrowski, who may have just closed the door on bringing
Scherzer back, and you can see why the thought of Cabrera walking away would
make them antsy.

Here’s the thing, though: He wasn’t walking away. Not now,
and not after this season. Cabrera wasn’t due to hit free agency until after
the2015season, which means that Detroit could have taken its time
with these talks…

…The Tigers had two full seasons of Cabrera control
remaining—two seasons (or at least one, if they didn’t want to go down to the
wire) in which they could have learned more about what kind of player he’ll be
at age 40. If, at any point from 2014–2015, Cabrera’s body breaks down, or his
bat starts to slow, or his conditioning slips, or his problems with alcohol
abuse recur, the Tigers won’t be able to adjust their offer accordingly.
They’ll be forced to pay him what they thought he’d be worth in March 2013,
before they had that additional info…

…For Detroit, this isn’t just buying high. It’s buying high
knowing that you’re likely to have a chance to buy lower later. It’s not just
the money that makes this extension a mistake. It’s not just the timing,
either. It’s the combination of the two: this amount of money at this
particular time…

…Even if you assume that teams are already paying $7
million per free agent win, and even if you assume that that rate will rise by
five percent per season, you can’t quite get Cabrera’s expected value to equal
his certain cost.

So the Tigers acted, probably prematurely, and got a
premium player at a premium price, giving back some of the surplus value from
Cabrera'sfirstDetroit contract. In the process, they darkenedthe short-term future of the
free-agent market, widened the smile on the face of Mike Trout’s financial
planner, andappalled,shocked, and disgusted29 other owners and front offices.
Writing about extensions can be boring, because it usually takes time to feel
their effects. In a sense, that’s true of this one, too: our projection for
both Cabrera and the Tigers in 2014 are unchanged from two days ago. But in
another sense, Cabrera’s extension seems significant. This is one of those
moves that makes wins cost more.

Far be it for me to suggest that locking up Miguel
Cabrera was a bad idea for the Tigers. But as Linbergh so artfully explained,
it was an unnecessary idea, at least
at this point in time. The Tigers didn’t get a discount. They didn’t prevent
Cabrera from walking away, or from forcing his way out of town via trade. They handed
out the highest AAV contract in sports history two full seasons prior to the
player hitting free agency, every dollar of which is guaranteed. One only needs
to look to the recent Albert Pujols albatross of a contract to see how this
could break bad for the Tigers. It’s not going to hurt their playoff chances in
2014, but if the contract keeps the Tigers from resigning Max Scherzer, it could
hurt them as soon as 2015. While Detroit is busy inflating the free agent
market for everyone else (especially the big market clubs), the Indians are
busy locking down their own talent at a fair and reasonable rate. It can’t help
but give you a good feeling about the job that the Indians front office is
doing to set up the club for 2014 and beyond.

Photo Credit: Al Ciammaichella

Something I’d like to make a weekly feature here
during our Lazy Sunday together is a little something that I’d like to call
Lindor Watch, 2014. It
works better if you say it in your Bryan Fantana “PANDA WATCH” voice from
Anchorman. I’ve made no secret of my love for Lindor, who’s
shaping up to be one of the top prospects in all of baseball and a potential
contributor on both sides of the ball when he does finally reach the major
leagues. Lindor has opened the 2014 season with AA Akron as a RubberDuck, and
you really should get out and try to see him play in Canal Park while he’s
still there. He’s ready to contribute at the major league level as soon as this
season, and will likely get at least a cup of coffee at the corner of Carnegie
and Ontario at some point in 2014. So I’ll keep tabs on him for you as long as
he’s in the minors, and report back to my loyal readers just what Lindor is
doing from week to week. Akron opened the season this past Thursday, and
they’ve played three games as of this morning. So far, Lindor is hitting an
impressive .385/.385/.615, going 5-13 with a HR, 2 RBI and a stolen base in the
first three Eastern League games of the season. Again, way too early to draw
any sort of meaningful conclusions, but it’s good to see that the power Lindor
was displaying in Arizona is already showing up in Akron.

As I’m sure all of you remember, former Indians
fan-favorite Grady Sizemore signed with the Red Sox this offseason, and managed
to make it through spring training unscathed and uninjured. He opened the 2014
season the Sox starting CF, and has gotten off to a hot start here in April.
Sizemore is hitting a robust .300/.417/.600 (3-10 with a HR and a SB) in three
games for the Red Sox. I’d be lying if I said it didn’t hurt a little to see
Sizemore succeed in Boston, but I can’t help but pull for the guy. He always
gave 100% as an Indian, never got into trouble, never said anything bad about
the city on his way out and was a generally likeable guy throughout his tenure
in Cleveland. I’m glad he’s back playing baseball again, and while I wish it
was with the Indians, I’m not going to begrudge the fact that it isn’t. I hope
Sizemore stays healthy and productive for the Red Sox this year, and if he
takes them all the way to the ALCS, that’s fine too. Just as long as that ALCS
run ends at the hands of the World Series-bound Indians, of course.

Finally, as we all know this is the 20th
anniversary of the opening of Jacobs Field. I can’t think of two better people
to reminisce on the memories made at the corner of Carnegie and Ontario than
Tom Hamilton and Anthony Castrovice, so
this is just about the perfect article. Castro and Hammy
counted down their top-10 favorite moments at The Jake, beginning with Giambi’s
walk-off during the playoff run last season and culminating with opening day
1994, when Wayne Kirby hit a walk-off single to send the sellout crowd home
happy. Like many of you, I have very fond memories of these and other Indians
moments from throughout my childhood, and taking this walk down memory lane
sure was a lot of fun. It remains to be seen whether the Indians can come up
with a moment or two in 2014 that will replace something on this list, but
you’d better believe that a World Series victory would immediately vault to #1
before the confetti even settled on the ground. Does this team have a run like
that in them? Time will tell, but I have to think they’ll be playing fun and
compelling baseball throughout the season. It’s going to be a fun season, and I
can’t wait to see what Tito and the crew have in store for us.