MSM: The 2014 cycle is starting to look an awful lot like 2010

posted at 4:01 pm on April 29, 2014 by Guy Benson

It’s getting ugly out there for Democrats — which is odd, considering the spectacular Obamacare “winning streak” they were bragging about as recently as last week. The current cluster of national polls is littered with red flags for President Obama and his party, starting with yesterday’s National Journalsurvey. Democrats don’t fare much better in a fresh “battleground” poll conducted by their own party’s messaging men. How’s this for home cooking?

- Republicans hold a five-point advantage (44/38) on the generic Congressional ballot, a margin that holds steady when leaners are included (47/42). GOP voters are winning the intensity sweepstakes, too.

– President Obama is underwater by double digits on overall approval (43/53), as voters overwhelmingly believe the country is on the wrong track (25/67).

– Voters remain cold on Obamacare with just 37 percent expressing “warm” feelings, as opposed to 52 percent “cool.” Though a majority of the public opposes the law (52 percent), the same percentage expresses a preference to “fix” the law, with 42 percent favoring repeal. (Democrats love these numbers; they shouldn’t, for reasons outlined here and here).

There’s your fall road map, Republicans. Obama is toxic. When his name and policies are introduced into the calculus, the generic ballot result in this (D+11) poll goes from a virtual tie to a double-digit GOP advantage. Among independents, the breakdown on this question is even more striking at (30/59). The same principle applies to this survey’s Obamacare results. This particular series has consistently been an outlier on the healthcare law, producing much more positive numbers than most other polls. Part of that phenomenon is likely attributable to the vague wording of the question, which mentions neither “Obamacare” nor the “Affordable Care Act.” In this iteration, the law is underwater by four points. But when Obama’s name is added into the mix, the numbers shift to (39/54), which is more in line with other polling. The Washington Post’s political blog, The Fix, notices that a deeper dive into the internals spells real trouble for Democrats ahead of the fall elections:

A new Washington Post-ABC News poll offers fresh evidence that Democrats are facing major enthusiasm problems within their base that make it difficult — if not impossible — for them to rebuild the winning coalition put together by President Obama in 2012. While nearly seven in 10 of all registered voters say they are “absolutely certain” to vote in November, several key Democratic constituencies are much less committed to voting. Barely half of voters ages 18 to 39 are certain about voting (53 percent) and 55 percent of non-whites describe themselves as certain to cast a ballot. By contrast, more than seven in 10 whites and voters older than 40 say they will definitely cast ballots — both groups that have favored Republicans in the past two elections…Beyond core partisans, independents who tilt Democratic are strikingly less motivated. Nearly three-quarters of independents who lean Republican are “certain” voters (74 percent), compared with just 50 percent of Democrats. The dynamic parallels Republicans’ turnout advantage in 2010. In that election, turnout dropped sharpest among young voters, African Americans and Hispanics. Those who showed up supported Republican House candidates over Democrats by 51 to 45 percent, despite Democrats holding leads among polls of registered voters.

These figures confirm Democratic pollsters’ urgent warnings about the party’s base turnout challenges in 2014. Harvard’s new poll of Millennials heaps more evidence atop the pile. Among voters aged 18-29, just 23 percent say they’re certain to vote in the fall. Fully 81 percent say they don’t consider themselves politically active. This group leans Democratic (37/25/38 – D/R/I), but they’re strikingly disengaged from politics and quite cynical. That cynicism has impacted views of Captain Hopenchange. His top line approval rating is upside-down (47/52) with this group, and he fares significantly worse on specific issues: The economy (37/61), healthcare (39/59), deficits (31/66), Syria (34/62) and Ukraine (38/59). Not fired up, not ready to go. I’ll leave you with some media hand-wringing analysis from this morning:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

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Democrats face a difficult choice: investing upward of $200 million dollars to try and hold the Senate, or paying $10 million cash to Boehner’s offshore account for passing mass amnesty in October. If the result is same, why pay more?

So what? Regardless of the outcome Obamacare won’t be repealed and the thieves in Washington and their allies in the private sector will continue to steal hand over fist.

Sorry to be so pessimistic, and I, of course, acknowledge I can be dead wrong, but I just don’t see anything rosy in our future even with Obama out of the White House a couple of years from now, and even with a GOP-controlled Congress.

I’ve already determined that I won’t vote for my Representative if she votes for Immigration reform, not because I’m hardcore on the issue, but I don’t vote for stupid people.
And if you think this summer is the time to push immigration reform, then you’re pretty stupid.

It’s not just Obama, it’s his ideology and all those on the Left that follow and push it…

… Now is the perfect time to point to the failures and pain we are all feeling based on the Left’s ideology and the failed policies, regulations, and laws that Obama has initiated based upon it.

Blame the Democrats for what they have actually caused, along with the Left’s ideology that drives them, and point out the fact that it is being taught in our schools and it fills all forms of the media and network news…

… Shame these sons of bit%hes out of the pubic square once and or all!

I think you all are crazy. The GOP is light years behind the Democrats when it comes to elections now. In real time, this is only about 4 years, but that may as well be light years.

The Republicans are still playing by the same old rules. They want to win by normal means.

Democrats on the other hand have all sorts of clever ways to win elections now. Using the IRS to intimidate voters, putting black panthers outside polling booths to make sure the wrong people don’t get inside to vote, grandma who died 15 years ago is voting Democrat now, didn’t you know? Illegal aliens. Felons. You name it, they are being brought out to vote.

So yeah, enjoy the polls and enjoy the thought that it’ll be a 2010 route. But when the Republicans lose all the statewide elections that count in 2014, I’ll be here to tell you, I told you so.

Elections are for the little people.

When you know what’s best for society, you don’t bother with real elections, you do what needs doing to get the job done.

Amen! I can’t do too much but offer moral support stuck here in Northern VA and the land or Moron but my vote is going to Gillespie or whoever.

In the meantime, I predict Herring helped the GOP today be deciding the illegal moochers are eligible for in-state tuition. They sneak into the country, don’t pay taxes, and now the citizens get to subsidize their education?

Those numbers on young people do not just tell me that young people are unfired up for the elections…. it tells me Obama is losing young people. Republicans need to take the chance and make a play at the fact that centralized power is becoming more and more unappealing to youths.

Young people now a days are used to fast moving things. They want results the way they get them on the internet or over the phone. Unrealistic? Yes. However on the flip side they view Obama as someone who has failed to deliver results. They are ready to abandon him and his party if someone else makes a play for them (and right now no one is). Wake up GOP.

These poll numbers are from “Registered Voters”. When we get closer to D-Day and the sample switches to “Likely Voters” it could really get interesting.

The disengaged younger voters represent a real opportunity for someone. Probably a more libertarian message wins some of those voters, rather than an establishment GOP message. Of course, an establishment GOP message wins just about no voters, but still….

I think you all are crazy. The GOP is light years behind the Democrats when it comes to elections now. In real time, this is only about 4 years, but that may as well be light years.

The Republicans are still playing by the same old rules. They want to win by normal means.

Democrats on the other hand have all sorts of clever ways to win elections now. Using the IRS to intimidate voters, putting black panthers outside polling booths to make sure the wrong people don’t get inside to vote, grandma who died 15 years ago is voting Democrat now, didn’t you know? Illegal aliens. Felons. You name it, they are being brought out to vote.

So yeah, enjoy the polls and enjoy the thought that it’ll be a 2010 route. But when the Republicans lose all the statewide elections that count in 2014, I’ll be here to tell you, I told you so.

Elections are for the little people.

When you know what’s best for society, you don’t bother with real elections, you do what needs doing to get the job done.

Baggi on April 29, 2014 at 4:23 PM

The GOP is lightyears behind on high turnout elections. Mid terms are a massive struggle for Dems though.

Not a surprise. I’ve seen a study or two that shows the young conservative vote is more reliable than those that identify as Democrat. The problem is that more younger voters still have liberal ideals.

We only start to turn the corner if Ds go insane and stay home instead of voting.

22044 on April 29, 2014 at 4:24 PM

The tell is going to be if the ads dump their war on women theme and go for [candidate X] hates you and wants to take all that free stuff you get from the government.

Warning the end of abortion and free contraception will only get you so far. And stupid rabid women are key vote for the Dems. But so too are the rest of the filthy moochers who take far more from society than they ever contribute. A perpetual underclass of breeders who go from womb to tomb on government welfare.

Chuckles Crist is a joke – he works FOR the biggest plaintiff’s firm in the State – the same firm that is financing his campaign. Once the stats come out on who’s funding whom, I do believe that Morgan and Morgan will go down with the Crist Ship of Fools.

ProudtobeaTruCon(Idiot) please join Hondav65 in the dunce room… Let It Burn? Tell me TruCon after it burns what do you expect to erect from the ashes? IF it burns, a LOT of AMericans are going to die & it’s as likely that a Fascist/Socialist Authoritarian Regime will be built the ashes as anything you’d find acceptable!

So take your Prepped @rse off to a mine shaft & count MRE’s…the rest of us will try to save the nation without your “help.”

People like you are useless…I can only imagine you & Honda in 1863 or in 1942. Thomas Paine spoke of you guys, not glowingly.

And desperate right now, which is why they’re pulling the pot stunt. Because they know that no matter HOW close Crist comes in polls to Rick Scott, unless they can get the Dem base to move off their butts into booths to vote this November, it’s all for naught.

Expect the media to start pitching in for the democrat side “to make it fair.”

This will help: Report in the media that Obama Care is here to stay, everyone is enrolled now, and GOP candidates agree, like so many dentists that chew gum. Say they want Obama Care (to go away) but leave out the part in parenthesis. Twist whatever you have, to discourage republican voters.

We now know who lostmotherland is…
In response to the question ‘How do you think Ted Cruz became a Senator?’ one of Hot Air’s resident Progtard ‘scholars’ responded:

‘Gerrymandering.’
– lostmotherland on October 17, 2013 at 1:39 PM

So the State of Texas, IN ITS FVCKING ENTIRETY, is gerrymandered?
Gerrymandering only factors into House seats and state/local districts. And, of course, it is not limited to one party
– Me
lostmotherland = TouréResist We Much on November 14, 2013 at 7:04 PM

…it will be tricky for republicans to find a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. However, I have faith they will find a way.

acyl72 on April 29, 2014 at 4:09 PM

No worries. Boehner, Cantor, McWhatever-Rogers, and the rest of the “leadership” and toadies are on the case.

Since they undoubtedly have this polling data (and more), the only conclusion is that the greedy little piggies have decided to try to off both the Dems and the conservatives in one fell swoop. Otherwise, why go out of their way to alienate the base right before such an important midterm? I don’t think this ends well.

it is simply not possible that 2014 will be in the same magnitude of victory as 2010 for the Republicans… It is going to be a Republican win but on a much smaller scale than 2010.

In the House the Republicans almost ran out of districts that they can win from the democrats. The super vast majority of districts that the democrats currently control, except 10 to 15 of them, are very much loyal to the democrats due to demographics make up (mostly blacks) or ideological makeup (very liberal/Unions, etc…) or combination of these, in other word these districts will never vote Republican under any circumstances of their racial and ideological makeup remain the as it is now and it is not going to change in decades to come… So the Republican have over 95% chance of keeping the House and they may add few more seats.

In the Senate, the Republicans are most probably going to win 2 to 3 seat net gain but not control the Senate… The Republicans have a disadvantage on national state wide elections (US Senate, President) because the demographics/ideological make up in a majority of states 27-28 of out of 50 and a majority of the overall electorate around 52% favor the democrats…

In the Senate, the Republicans are most probably going to win 2 to 3 seat net gain but not control the Senate… The Republicans have a disadvantage on national state wide elections (US Senate, President) because the demographics/ideological make up in a majority of states 27-28 of out of 50 and a majority of the overall electorate around 52% favor the democrats…

mnjg on April 29, 2014 at 5:36 PM

I always respect your opinions/analysis but I think we’re about to see a wave of Tea Party wins. The base knows that the RINO’s are nothing more than democrats. This will be the second wave.

Another favorite, and not completely off-topic for this thread is this one:

i see obama’s approval’s up to 52 on gallup, up 9 points since a month ago. surely just a blip. lefty fox news showing his approval surging is clearly just propaganda.

there should be more blog posts on the WWII vets, it’s clearly working.

sesquipedalian on October 4, 2013 at 1:50 PM

LOL. Epic fail, dipstick. That’s Obama’s disapproval up to 52% on Gallup. His approval on Gallup is a thoroughly stagnant 41%. In fact just about every measure has shown Obama dropping today – for most the first day of entirely post-shutdown numbers. Rasmussen was actually his strongest number for a while, but he had a good day roll off and the latest days… not so rosy.

Seriously, Ed, Allah – can’t you pay to have a more worthy class of troll come around here? This is easy mode.

What kind of Republicans are going to win? That’s the important question.

If the same old people win seats, then it will remain the same see-saw of failure we’ve been witnessing and nothing will change. The Democrats will be back in force after Republicans have taken their turn at absorbing blame for the economy.

But then, most people have lost all faith in the political process to effect change anyway, haven’t they? ‘Maybe it was always a lie’ is the growing sentiment around the entire country.

Whenever I see a doozer like that, I copy and paste it into Google Docs for safekeeping. It’s about 10 pages long now.

Chuck Schick on April 29, 2014 at 4:49 PM

Another way: right click on the timestamp (which is the link) and select bookmark. Backspace over the suggested bookmark name, and type in the poster’s name and a keyword relating to the idiocy, ie ‘gerrymandering’ or ‘non-lethal’, and hit okay.

Then, to retrieve you open a new tab, and in the URL bar type only the name of the poster, and a list of his linked comments will fall down.

Too bad the country didn’t have the stones to fire this liberal crackpot in 2012.

BuckeyeSam on April 29, 2014 at 9:25 PM

I contend that the GOPe threw the 2012 elections in order to severely depress turnout vis a vis a long, ridiculous primary season with deeply flawed candidates, not defending Tea Party groups under assault by the IRS/DOJ, doing nothing to force Todd Achin’ out, and encouraging an echo chamber among conservative pundits that proclaimed Mitt as “most electable.” Because Project ORCA.

The GOPe alone is to blame for throwing away a winnable election. Calling Millennials “low information voters” only serves to deflect blame AND alienate those same people from ever considering conservatism.

But then again, they are given a choice between slick, cool-looking-and-sounding liars to the left, and old, cranky curmudgeons to the right…

Is it verboten for a conservative-minded person to use the word “hope”?
I hold out hope that sane people will be elected in 2014 and 2016. But I cannot take any comfort in the apparent rejection that Obama is experiencing amongst the Democrat base; they are not coming around to a more sensible view of reality but are merely disappointed that the Love God didn’t come through for them.
A solid, HONEST conservative government can still right our sadly listing ship of state, but if it should happen the libs will not acknowledge it. They will write it off to dumb luck, or ying/yang or karma or some damn fantasy or other; owing to their nature they will forever be panting for their secular Jesus to make his/her appearance and heal the planet, and we will forever play out this idiotic farce until the world finally blows up.

Don’t worry, we will put immigration “reform” out front and center and take away from all of the failures…

right2bright on April 29, 2014 at 4:06 PM

I know, right? And after all that crying when the Government was shut down because it was taking attention away from Obarrycare. Just goes to show how incredibly loyal to the CoC and big business the GOPe truly is.

You mean like jamming through amnesty for the illegal mooches in August?

Happy Nomad on April 29, 2014 at 4:20 PM

You’ll get that when you have a “hell-bent” Boehner lasting 23 yrs.

If the GOPe just wasn’t so freaking stupid and fake and cronie serving I could get excited about the Republicans doing well and saving the nation. Ignorance really would be bliss. But these jokers aren’t going to save anything but their pals and themselves. Sad.