From a home owners perspective:Will I get a replacement shingle in 20 years?Good traditional shingles have a lifetime up to 80 years here.

What type of shingles are "traditional" in your area?

Here, the standard is asphalt shingles that are labeled as "30 year", but you'd be lucky to get 20 out of them. You can buy premium "40 year" shingles. I have never heard of 80 years, so you must be talking about some kind of slate tile shingle or something like that?

At any rate, other than physical damage from micrometeorites or a stray fly ball from a neighbor's baseball game, the durability of these shingles is something I wold expect to far EXCEED the standard shingles installed in my area.

Musk was showing off replacements for slate and ceramic tiles. These, and other rigid tiles - e.g. concrete, are usually good for at least 50 years, and 80 is not unusual.

Continued supply of compatible tiles is an important factor. Many people need to undertake small localised repairs to their roof during its life. At the end of the life of the tiles compatibility is much less important. In most cases you can easily use completely different tiles for a fresh new roof.

From a home owners perspective:Will I get a replacement shingle in 20 years?Good traditional shingles have a lifetime up to 80 years here.

What type of shingles are "traditional" in your area?

Here, the standard is asphalt shingles that are labeled as "30 year", but you'd be lucky to get 20 out of them. You can buy premium "40 year" shingles. I have never heard of 80 years, so you must be talking about some kind of slate tile shingle or something like that?

At any rate, other than physical damage from micrometeorites or a stray fly ball from a neighbor's baseball game, the durability of these shingles is something I wold expect to far EXCEED the standard shingles installed in my area.

Well, in Europe, houses usually built with ceramic roof tiles, bricks and they last lifetime.

The whole discussion based on a tech version of traditional anything undermines the opportunities by getting away from tradition. Traditional methods were used based on the technology limitations if 300 years ago. When cars first became available regulations stifled development because they were assumed to be horse drawn carts without the horse so required some of the same policies that carriages were covered by in the late 1800s in US and European cities. Obviously Musk was thinking of North America as the first target audience, lower volume at high price as the while the production technology ramps up to mass production and evolutionary changes. Just as he did with the Tesla cars, starting with the roadster for rich early adopters who were a small enough number they could produce enough to satisfy demand. The Model S is a much higher production vehicle but still small compared to the established auto companies. But ramping up to a couple hundred thousand luxury sedans paved the way to a mass produced affordable $35000 model. Using the same plan, a replacement for slate and tile roofs with something that might even cost less is a good target audience. In California, a slate roof can easily cost $80-150k and a ceramic tile one can cost $50k. It becomes viable option with less sales resistance for the smaller number of potential customers that a start up can produce for. After driving a P85s Model S Tesla I have no doubt that Musk knows his audience better than any car company executive. The US auto industry in the 1960s employed 1 in 7 people in the US and was the largest car industry in the world. In 2015, the total US output of cars was a little over 4 million, a fraction of just 10 years ago, while China produced 24 million up from almost zero 15 years ago. Musk's approach of gaining experience before ramping up to lower cost products will likely result in Tesla being the largest car producer in the US in 6-7 years. The same would not be out of the question for the solar roof tiles. Forget about initial cost efficiency, or mass production trying to compete with a mature, stagnant industry, he does not have to have a product that replaces current traditional products...yet, wait for the 3-4 generation of these and see where the volume is. I would bet on Musk in the long term.

Forget about initial cost efficiency, or mass production trying to compete with a mature, stagnant industry, he does not have to have a product that replaces current traditional products...yet, wait for the 3-4 generation of these and see where the volume is. I would bet on Musk in the long term.

While I agree that it is not wise to condemn an emerging technology on production cost, the fact is that the concept has been out in the field for a number of years - and no-one has made a go of it. Do we think Elon Musk will do any better? If so, why?

Tesla appears to have put their solar roof system on sale. There is no new technical information, beyond the original vague presentation, as far as I have seen. They have talked prices, but again in a pretty vague way. They are taking $1000 deposits, though.

Telsa say regulations prevent more than 50% of the roof being solar. Does anyone know what those regulations might be, or their rationale?

We are certainly getting to the pointy end of this saga! It'll be interesting to see what the efficiencies are like and how it actually hangs together.

Personally I'd rather have solar tiles than Solar panels - my roof is only good for a few more years as the concrete tiles are not in the best shape. I'd either go solar tiles or Colourbond Steel with panels but would prefer the terracotta tiles when available (current tiles are orange too).

Logged

The impossible often has a kind of integrity which the merely improbable lacks.

Tesla appears to have put their solar roof system on sale. There is no new technical information, beyond the original vague presentation, as far as I have seen. They have talked prices, but again in a pretty vague way. They are taking $1000 deposits, though.

Telsa say regulations prevent more than 50% of the roof being solar. Does anyone know what those regulations might be, or their rationale?

I can see some reasoning, you need to be able to access the roof and if the whole thing is covered with panels you can't walk on that would be difficult. But, of course these are more tiles than traditional panels, so its probably straddling some weird mix of regulations.

I didn't watch the video so I don't know how much the cost will be but from what I have seen it looks nice, a lot nicer than conventional panels mounted on a roof. Also if you need a new roof anyway it seems like this might make sense, it's a nice looking and durable roof that also happens to generate electricity.

From a home owners perspective:Will I get a replacement shingle in 20 years?Good traditional shingles have a lifetime up to 80 years here.

Wow, 80 years? One is lucky to get 25 years out of a roof out here, even one claimed to be a "50 year" roof and well maintained. Tree leaves/needles cover it and keep it moist, moss gross and the roots deteriorate the roof. Snow/rain/ice, freeze/thaw cycles, it all ends up being really brutal.

It helps, but even with the zinc strips I still have to get up there and pick the moss off some areas. I spread moss killer on it occasionally too, moss is tough stuff though, there's a lot of hardy native moss around here.

From a home owners perspective:Will I get a replacement shingle in 20 years?Good traditional shingles have a lifetime up to 80 years here.

What type of shingles are "traditional" in your area?

Here, the standard is asphalt shingles that are labeled as "30 year", but you'd be lucky to get 20 out of them. You can buy premium "40 year" shingles. I have never heard of 80 years, so you must be talking about some kind of slate tile shingle or something like that?

At any rate, other than physical damage from micrometeorites or a stray fly ball from a neighbor's baseball game, the durability of these shingles is something I wold expect to far EXCEED the standard shingles installed in my area.

Well, in Europe, houses usually built with ceramic roof tiles, bricks and they last lifetime.

You are supposed to order some excess, so it can be repaired.

A lifetime?Let's make it many generations

Logged

"If you can't explain it simply (or at all), you don't understand it well enough." A. Einstein

Well, in Europe, houses usually built with ceramic roof tiles, bricks and they last lifetime.

I've been in ordinary-person European houses that were built in the 15th century.

(and in quite a few pubs from the 16th/17th century)

I bet there's houses older than that if you look hard enough.

And I'll bet you find that they have all had numerous repairs over the years. In addition to the modifications to bring them into usability by modern standards. Things like heat, plumbing and electricity. At least here in the new world where there is a significant stock of 300 year old houses and buildings that is the case. Those repair jobs include such things as taking chimneys apart and re-setting the stones.

15th century homes are a bit over the top but there are many older building with ceramic roof tiles which are over a century old. Over here concrete roof tiles came into use since around 1910 and these don't need mass replacement even after 50 years. Needing to redo a roof with ceramic or concrete tiles is unheard of in the NL.

Logged

There are small lies, big lies and then there is what is on the screen of your oscilloscope.

In some parts of the US, ceramic and tile roofs are common, but out here cedar shakes are the traditional material with asphalt composite shingles becoming a lot more common. The house across the street from me actually has a tile roof but that's very unusual here, I think the much higher cost puts a lot of people off, even if it does last longer people are notoriously short sighted. That and with all the trees it's not uncommon for a tree to fall or drop a heavy branch that would cause considerable damage to brittle tiles. That may be why they're less common. The places that do have a lot of roofs tend to be the more desert-like regions where >100' tall evergreen trees are not everywhere.

15th century homes are a bit over the top but there are many older building with ceramic roof tiles which are over a century old. Over here concrete roof tiles came into use since around 1910 and these don't need mass replacement even after 50 years.