Technical analysis of USD/JPY for May 04, 2015

Fundamental outlook:

USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting almost the three-week high of 120.29 on Friday. Today, liquidity is thin in Asia and Europe as financial markets in Japan and the UK are closed for public holidays. USD/JPY is underpinned by broadly firmer dollar undertone (ICE spot dollar index last 95.25 versus 94.84 early Friday) and higher U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.117% versus 2.044% late Thursday). The pair is also affected by the comment of Fed's Mester that she is not yet willing to rule out supporting a rise in rates at central bank's June policy meeting despite data showing a very weak start to growth in 2015. Ms. Mester said that when it comes to boosting rates off their current near zero levels, «all meetings are on the table.» USD/JPY is also supported by the ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy and reduced safe-haven appeal of the yen as global risk sentiment improves (VIX fear gauge eased 12.71% to 12.7; S&P 500 closed up 1.09% at 2,108.29 Friday). But USD sentiment is dented by the surprise on-month drop of 0.6% in the U.S. March construction spending (versus forecast +0.5%), and weaker-than-expected U.S. April ISM manufacturing PMI of 51.5 (versus forecast 52.0). USD/JPY gains are tempered by the buy-yen orders from Japan's exporters.

Technical comment:

The daily chart is positive-biased as stochastics is bullish, the MACD histogram bars are turned positive. Five-day moving average is rising above 15-day moving average.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a wider range as long as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price holds above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 120.50 and the second target at 120.80. In the alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 1119.20. A break of this target is likely to push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 118.75. The pivot point is at 119.55.