NCAA tournament gambling: ATS trends for all your Sweet 16 needs

Step up to the sportsbook window with these ATS trends bouncing around in your head. (Ethan Miller/Getty Images)

Your bracket is in tatters. My bracket is in tatters. But does that mean we should stop trying to predict what happens as the NCAA men’s basketball tournament reaches the Sweet 16? Hardly. Here are a few things to think about as you consider your region semifinal wagers.

For starters, an overarching trend: Over the past three NCAA tournaments, Sweet 16 favorites have gone 14-7-2 ATS (one game in last year’s tournament was a pick ’em).

All times Eastern. Point spreads taken Wednesday from the consensus lines at VegasInsider.com. Historical point-spread information taken from Covers.com. The usual warnings about small sample sizes and trends not being predictive apply here. In other words, don’t rush to the window using only these trends.

Thursday’s games

No. 7 Nevada (-1.5) vs. No. 11 Loyola-Chicago (7:07 p.m., CBS)

— ESPN Chris Fallica notes that No. 11 seeds have played a No. 6 or 7 seed in the Sweet 16 six times. The No. 11 seed has won five of those meetings outright.

— The Ramblers are 21-9-1 ATS this season, tops among remaining teams.

No. 3 Michigan (-2.5) vs. No. 7 Texas A&M (7:37 p.m., TBS)

— The five previous Sweet 16 games involving Wolverines Coach John Beilein have been decided by an average of 2.6 points.

— The Wolverines are 9-2 ATS over their past 11 games, including 7-1 ATS against teams with winning records.

— Kentucky is making its seventh Sweet 16 appearance under Coach John Calipari. The Wildcats went a perfect 6-0 both ATS and straight-up in their previous six appearances, covering the spread by an average of 13 points. Overall, Calipari-coached teams are 11-2 outright and ATS in the Sweet 16.

— Kansas State is 4-10 ATS in its past 14 games as an underdog of at least 5.5 points (1-5 ATS in such games this season).

— Per Fallica, Gonzaga is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 NCAA tournament games as a favorite of greater than five points.

— Under Coach Leonard Hamilton, the Seminoles are 3-0 both straight-up and ATS as an NCAA tournament underdog.

Friday’s games

No. 1 Kansas (-4.5) vs. No. 5 Clemson (7:07 p.m., CBS)

— Teams coached by the Jayhawks’ Bill Self are 7-3 ATS as favorites in the Sweet 16.

— No. 1 seeds are 11-1-1 ATS in the Sweet 16 over the past four NCAA tournaments.

No. 1 Villanova (-5.5) vs. No. 5 West Virginia (7:27 p.m., TBS)

— Bob Huggins-coached teams are 3-9-1 ATS as an NCAA tournament underdog. When an underdog of at least five points, Huggins-coached teams have gone 0-3 straight-up, losing by an average of 19.6 points.

— At 24-12 ATS this season, the Wildcats have the second-best ATS winning percentage among the remaining teams, behind only Loyola.

— No. 1 seeds are 11-1-1 ATS in the Sweet 16 over the past four NCAA tournaments.

No. 2 Duke (-11.5) vs. No. 11 Syracuse (approximately 9:37 p.m., CBS)

— Since 2012, double-digit favorites have gone 1-3 ATS in the Sweet 16.

— Duke has gone 12-7 ATS as a double-digit favorite this season. One of those covers was as a 13.5-point favorite against Syracuse on Feb. 24 (the Blue Devils won by 16 in Durham).

— Syracuse is 0-2 ATS as a double-digit underdog this season but 8-7 ATS as an underdog overall.

— Ken Pomeroy gives the Blue Devils an 81.1 percent chance of advancing to the Elite Eight, the highest probability of any team.

— Per Fallica, there have been 14 double-digit seeds that have been double-digit underdogs in the Sweet 16 since 1985. They have gone 0-14 straight-up and 7-7 ATS, with the closest margin of defeat seven points.

— In Sweet 16 games with over/under totals less than 138 points, underdogs getting at least three points have gone 24-11 ATS since 2005. The Duke-Syracuse total sat at 133.5 as of Wednesday.

— Under Coach Matt Painter, the Boilermakers are 6-4 ATS as a favorite in the NCAA tournament. However, they are 0-3 both straight-up and ATS in the Sweet 16 under Painter, losing those games by an average of 18.6 points.