Tag: Offensive Efficiency

This is a guest post by NBAstuffer reader, William Rogers. He predicted things that are likely to happen in the second half of the season.

NBA regular season lasts for 25 weeks. Since we have just passed the 15 weeks mark, let's list what we would expect in the remaining 10 weeks.

The battle for a playoffs spot will come down to rest days factor. For the teams that have more rest since last game played, the chance of winning will be better especially against an opponent that has no rest. Teams with a favorable schedule in mid March and April, will get an edge over its opponents. If you would like to find out more stats, refer to NBAstuffer's great rest days stats.

Offensive efficiency will increase, defensive efficiency will also go up which means worse (more points allowed per 100 possessions) defense. After long road trips and traveling, cumulated fatique makes players become more exhausted so playing offense is going to be significantly easier than playing defense at the end of season.

One interesting fact: According to the the research, in the second half of seasons, win production increases when teams play in time zones to the east and decreases in time zones to the west of their home time zone. At this point, I want to stress the importance of strength of schedule again!

Fights between underdog vs. favorite will keep fluctuating through out the season. The chart below does a good job of unveiling how the percentage of beating the favorite changed throughout the last 4 seasons.

Good teams show up in the upper right quadrant and poor teams in the lower left quadrant.
Teams with good defense and poor offense are in the upper left quadrant.
Teams with good offense and poor defense are in the lower right quadrant.

Not to mention the results of the teams who were eliminated in the first round don't tell the whole story since they have played against only one opponent. First of all, let me explain what "4 factors" is.