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Copyright: Toni Straka, 2005-2011 This blog is for information and entertainment purposes only. Under no circumstances does this information represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities or any other type of investment instruments.

Wednesday, November 04, 2009

The Federal Reserve is set to continue its ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) until spring 2010. According to the statement released after the latest 2-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) the Fed kept its key interest rate unchanged at the level of 0% to 0.25%. While the Fed sees the economy picking up I stay with my opinion that US GDP is actually still contracting were it not for the unlimited spending on killing devices.

Ben Still Doesn't Get ItAs all FOMC members voted for the continuation of doing nothing despite gold showing clearly that inflation will set in next year one can expect that inflation will surge next year to levels not seen since the 1970/80s.Contradicting itself in one sentence I advise investors to be extremely cautious as the Fed is way too optimistic in seeing a recovery:

The cryptic FOMC statement sees at least that we certainly cannot talk about a Goldilocks economy anymore:

Businesses are still cutting back on fixed investment and staffing, though at a slower pace; they continue to make progress in bringing inventory stocks into better alignment with sales. Although economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time, the Committee anticipates that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, fiscal and monetary stimulus, and market forces will support a strengthening of economic growth and a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability.

With substantial resource slack likely to continue to dampen cost pressures and with longer-term inflation expectations stable, the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued for some time.

I am not sure that the gradual tightening of the Fed's purchase programs will achieve the wished result of higher ABS prices. According to the statement the Fed will slow its purchases:

To provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve will purchase a total of $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and about $175 billion of agency debt. The amount of agency debt purchases, while somewhat less than the previously announced maximum of $200 billion, is consistent with the recent path of purchases and reflects the limited availability of agency debt. In order to promote a smooth transition in markets, the Committee will gradually slow the pace of its purchases of both agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities and anticipates that these transactions will be executed by the end of the first quarter of 2010.

Sorry, this statement is of little help for investors that want to find out whether the Fed will remain on its course of monetizing the debt or whether it may think about a real solution to fantasy security prices they pay because nobody else wants to buy these toxic assets.Gold's surge today is a clear reminder that investors worldwide are wary about the future of the value of Federal Reserve Notes (FRN) and its potential purchasing power in the future.Although this blog refrains to give actual investment advice I feel on the safe side to recommend precious metals again.

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EXCERPT FROM THE US CONSTITUTION, Article I, section 10: No State shall ... coin Money; emit Bills of Credit; make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts....

FROM THE US TREASURY WEBSITE: "Federal Reserve notes are not redeemable in gold, silver or any other commodity, and receive no backing by anything. The notes have no value for themselves, but for what they will buy."

A LESSON FROM HISTORY BOOKS: The past 300 years have proven that ALL fiat money experiments ended in complete devaluation. From Rome to Britain: every empire vanished into oblivion soon after it went off the gold standard. It is time to recognize the obvious: Unbacked money has never worked.

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About Me

I am an INDEPENDENT Certified Financial Analyst who worked as a financial journalist for 15+ years and now evaluate global market trends. Analyzing financial and political news permanently I want to share my insight with those who understand that we are in an era of global redistribution of wealth. The US-European centric approach does not work anymore. 6 billion people in the developing countries now demand their fair share of the world's resources.
Having worked many years for a leading newswire I have learned to understand the fatal concept of ever expanding credit by heart. If you want to learn about the future of the economy, study history.