Recent activity

The geomagnetic field was quiet on November 10. Solar wind speed ranged
between 323 and 433 km/s (average speed was 392 km/s, increasing 68 km/s over the
previous day) under the influence of a weak coronal stream.

Solar flux measured at 20h UTC on 2.8 GHz was 69.8. The planetary A index
was 3 (STAR Ap - based on the mean of three hour interval ap
indices: 3.0). Three hour interval K indices: 10121100 (planetary),
10132210 (Boulder).

The background x-ray flux is below the class A1 level.

At midnight the visible solar disk was spotless. The solar flare activity
level was very low. No C class events were recorded during the day.

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs)

November 8-10: No obvious fully or partly Earth directed CMEs were observed
in LASCO imagery.

Coronal holes

A recurrent coronal hole (CH298) will rotate into an Earth facing position on
November 10-14. A small coronal hole just ahead of CH298 was in an Earth facing
position on November 9, this coronal hole decayed and disappeared on November 10.

Processed SOHO/EIT 195 image at 00:00 UTC on November 11. The
darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.

Propagation

Long distance low and medium
frequency (below 2 MHz) propagation
along paths north of due west over high and upper middle latitudes is excellent. Propagation on long distance northeast-southwest paths
is poor.

Monitoring remarks from a location near N58E06: November 10-11:
Strong signals from North American stations were present on nearly all TA
frequencies as early as 21h UTC. Conditions are widespread as stations from the
eastern, central and western parts are all heard, some with excellent signals. The best Trans
Atlantic propagation sector was 270-330 degrees.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on November 11-12. A slight increase in activity is possible
on November 13 due to a small coronal hole. Quiet to active conditions are
possible on November 14-18 due to a high speed stream from CH298.

Coronal holes (1)

Coronal mass ejections (2)

M and X class flares (3)

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth
within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the
color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96
hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next
48 hours.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region
Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the
STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before
midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has
observed no spots.
SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region
map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.

Active region

Date numbered

SEC
spot
count

STAR
spot
count

Location at midnight

Area

Classification

Comment

Total spot count:

0

0

SSN:

0

0

Monthly solar cycle data

Month

Average solar
flux at Earth

International sunspot number

Smoothed sunspot number

2000.04

184.2

125.5

120.8
cycle 23 sunspot max.

2000.07

202.3

170.1

119.8

2001.12

235.1

132.2

114.6 (-0.9)

2006.09

77.8

14.4

15.6 (+0.0)

2006.10

74.3

10.4

14.2 (-1.4)

2006.11

86.3

21.5

12.7 (-1.5)

2006.12

84.5

13.6

12.1 (-0.6)

2007.01

83.3

16.9

12.0 (-0.1)

2007.02

77.7

10.6

11.6 (-0.4)

2007.03

72.2

4.8

10.8 (-0.8)

2007.04

72.4

3.7

9.9 (-0.9)

2007.05

74.4

11.7

(8.7 predicted, -1.2)

2007.06

73.7

12.0

(7.5 predicted, -1.2)

2007.07

71.6

10.0

(6.7 predicted, -0.8)

2007.08

69.1

6.2

(6.2 predicted, -0.5)

2007.09

67.1

2.4

(6.2 predicted, +0.0)

2007.10

67.4

0.9

(6.7 predicted, +0.5)

2007.11

68.3 (1)

0.3 (2)

(7.3 predicted, +0.6)

1) Running average based on the
daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux
value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC)
sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically
30-50% lower.

This report has been prepared by Jan
Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis,
and
partly on data from some of these solar data sources.
All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are
always welcome.