A Hurricane Watch Has Been Issued From The Mouth Of The Mississippi River Eastward To Indian Pass Florida...Not Including Metropolitan New Orleans.

The Tropical Storm Warning Has Been Extended Northward And Westward Along The Florida West Coast And The Florida Panhandle To Indian Pass.

The Government Of The Bahamas Has Discontinued The Tropical Storm Warning For The Turks And Caicos Islands.

Summary Of Watches And Warnings In Effect...

A Hurricane Warning Is In Effect For...* The Florida Keys Including The Dry Tortugas* The West Coast Of Florida From Bonita Beach Southward To OceanReef* Florida Bay* Andros Island In The Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch Is In Effect For...* The Florida East Coast From Golden Beach Southward To Ocean Reef* The Mouth Of The Mississippi River To Indian Pass Florida...NotIncluding Metropolitan New Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For...* Cuban Provinces Of Ciego De Avila...Sancti Spiritus...VillaClara...Camaguey...Las Tunas...Granma...Holguin...Santiago DeCuba...And Guantanamo* The Bahamas Excluding Andros Island* The Florida East Coast From Sebastian Inlet Southward To OceanReef* Lake Okeechobee* The Florida West Coast And The Florida Panhandle From North OfBonita Beach To Indian Pass...Including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch Is In Effect For...* Cuban Provinces Of Matanzas And Cienfuegos* The Florida East Coast North Of Sebastian Inlet To Flagler Beach

A Hurricane Warning Means That Hurricane Conditions Are ExpectedSomewhere Within The Warning Area...In This Case Within The Next 24 Hours. Preparations To Protect Life And Property Should Be Rushed To Completion.

A Hurricane Watch Means That Hurricane Conditions Are PossibleWithin The Watch Area. A Watch Is Typically Issued 48 HoursBefore The Anticipated First Occurrence Of Tropical-Storm-ForceWinds...Conditions That Make Outside Preparations Difficult OrDangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning Means That Tropical Storm Conditions AreExpected Somewhere Within The Warning Area Within 36 Hours.

Interests In The Remainder Of Cuba...The Remainder Of Florida...AndThe Remainder Of The Northern Gulf Coast Should Monitor The Progress Of Isaac.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area In The UnitedStates...Including Possible Inland Watches And Warnings...PleaseMonitor Products Issued By Your Local National Weather ServiceForecast Office. For Storm Information Specific To Your Area OutsideThe United States...Please Monitor Products Issued By Your NationalMeteorological Service.

Isaac Is Moving Toward The Northwest Near 18 Mph...30 Km/H. A West-Northwestward To Northwestward Motion Is Expected During The Next 48 Hours With A Gradual Decrease In Forward Speed.

On The Forecast Track...The Center Of Isaac Is Expected To Move Just North Of The North Coast Of Cuba This Morning...Move Near Or Over The Florida Keys Later Today And Tonight...And Move Into The Eastern Gulf Of Mexico On Monday.

Some Additional Strengthening Is Forecast During The Next 48 Hours...And Isaac Is Expected To Be At Or Near Hurricane Strength When It Reaches The Florida Keys.

Tropical-Storm-Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 205 Miles...335 Km From The Center.

The Latest Minimum Central Pressure Reported By The Aircraft Was 995 Mb...29.38 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land----------------------Rainfall...Total Rainfall Accumulations Of 4 To 8 Inches...WithMaximum Amounts Of 12 Inches...Are Possible Across The FloridaKeys...The Southern Peninsula Of Florida And Portions Of Central AndEastern Cuba. Total Rain Accumulations Of 3 To 6 Inches ArePossible Over The Central And Southern Bahamas.

Wind...Tropical Storm Conditions Are Occurring Over Portions OfEastern And Central Cuba And The Bahamas And The Turks And Caicos Islands. Hurricane Conditions Are Expected On Andros Island On Sunday. Tropical Storm Conditions Are Possible In Portions OfNorthwestern Cuba By Late Sunday.

Hurricane Conditions Are Expected In The Hurricane Warning Area InSouthwest Florida And The Florida Keys Today...With TropicalStorm Conditions Expected Later This Morning.

Hurricane Conditions Are Possible In The Hurricane Watch Area In Southeast Florida Today...With Tropical Storm Conditions Expected In The Tropical Storm Warning Area Along The Florida East Coast By This Morning.

Tropical Storm Conditions Are Expected To Spread Northward AlongThe West Coast Of Florida And Into The Eastern Florida Panhandle InThe Tropical Storm Warning Area Tonight And Monday.

Hurricane Conditions Are Possible In The Hurricane Watch Area Along The Northern Gulf Coast On Tuesday...With Tropical Storm Conditions Possible By Monday Night.

Storm Surge...The Combination Of A Storm Surge And The Tide WillCause Normally Dry Areas Near The Coast To Be Flooded By RisingWaters. The Water Could Reach The Following Depths Above Ground If The Peak Surge Occurs At The Time Of High Tide...

* Crystal River Through The Big Bend Of Florida...4 To 7 Ft* Southwest Florida Coast Within Hurricane Warning Area...4 To 6 Ft* Florida West Coast From Bonita Beach To South Of Crystal RiverIncluding Tampa Bay...3 To 5 Ft* Southeast Florida Coast And The Florida Keys...1 To 3 Ft* Central And Eastern Cuba...1 To 3 Ft* The Bahamas...1 To 3 Ft

The Deepest Water Will Occur Along The Immediate Coast In Areas Of Onshore Flow. Surge-Related Flooding Depends On The Relative Timing Of The Surge And The Tidal Cycle...And Can Vary Greatly Over Short Distances. For Information Specific To Your Area...Please SeeProducts Issued By Your Local Weather Service Office. Near TheCoast...The Surge Will Be Accompanied By Dangerous Waves.

Tornadoes...Isolated Tornadoes Are Possible Over Portions Of Central And Southern Florida And The Florida Keys On Sunday.

Surf...Dangerous Surf And Rip Current Conditions Will Continue ToAffect The Bahamas...The Turks And Caicos...Eastern And CentralCuba...The Florida Peninsula And The Florida Keys During The NextCouple Of Days. Please Consult Products From Your Local WeatherOffice For More Information.

While The Satellite Presentation Of Isaac Remains SomewhatUnimpressive...With Deep Convection Limited To A Rather Small AreaNorth And East Of The Center...Aircraft Data Suggest That TheCyclone Has Strengthened A Little Overnight. Peak 850-MbFlight-Level Winds Of 69 Kt In The Northeast Quadrant Adjust To AnIntensity Of 55 Kt...Which Is The Value For This Advisory. AircraftData Indicate That The Minimum Pressure Has Also Dropped A Little...To 995 Mb.

Isaac Still Appears To Be Battling The Effects Of Some Low- To Mid-Level Dry Air In The Western Side Of The Circulation...As Seen In Upper-Air Data From Miami And Key West.

Aside From This...However...Conditions Appear Favorable For SteadyIntensification As The Cyclone Move Across The Florida Straits AndInto The Eastern Gulf Of Mexico. Waters Along The Forecast Track Are Very Warm...And Upper-Level Winds Are Forecast By The Global Models To Become Conducive For Strengthening.

The New Nhc Forecast Is Similar To The Previous One...But Shows A Little Slower Rate Of Strengthening For The First Couple Of Days...Trending Toward The Latest Cycle Of Guidance.

The Initial Motion Estimate Is 305/16...A Little Faster Than Before.

As The Upper-Low To The West Of Isaac Retreats Westward And TheClosed Low Over The Mid-Atlantic States Lifts Northward...IsaacWill Move Generally West-Northwestward Or Northwestward Around The Western Periphery Of The Atlantic Subtropical Ridge For The Next 48 Hours.

Beyond That Time...There Is Considerable Spread In The Model Guidance. Most Of The Models...With The Exception Of The Ukmet... No Longer Show Isaac Recurving Ahead Of A Shortwave Trough Moving Eastward Across The Eastern United States.

One Camp Of Guidance...Including The Gfs...Hwrf...And Gfs Ensemble Mean Show A Northwestward Track Toward The Central Gulf Coast As The Shortwave Bypasses Isaac Completely. The Ecmwf And Gfdl Show Have More Of A Weakness In The Ridge And Show Isaac Turning Northward Toward The Eastern Gulf Coast.

The New Nhc Forecast Is Faster Than The Previous One Through Much Of The Period...But Is Along The Previous Track Through 36 Hours.

After That Time...A Significant Westward Adjustment Was Made...And The New Nhc Track Is Close To The Tvca Multi-Model Consensus And The Ecmwf...Showing A North-Northwestward And Northward Turn At Days 3 Through 5.

Given The Large Spread In The Guidance...Confidence In The Long-Range Track Forecast Is Quite Low...And It Is Too Early To Determine Exactly Where And When Isaac Will Make Landfall Along The Gulf Coast. Further Adjustments To The Track May Be Necessary Later Today.

Throughout The Period...It Is Important Not To Focus On The ExactForecast Track Since Significant Hazards Extend Well Away From TheCenter.

Given The New Nhc Forecast...A Hurricane Watch Has Been Issued For A Portion Of The Northern Gulf Coast.

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