Category Archives: geopolitical risk

One service forecasting “staff” can provide executives and managers is a sort of list of global geopolitical risks. This is compelling only at certain times – and 2014 and maybe 2015 seem to be shaping up as one of these periods.

Just a theory, but, in my opinion, the sustained lackluster economic performance in the global economy, especially in Europe and also, by historic standards, the United States adds fuel to the fire of many conflicts. Conflict intensifies as people fight over an economic pie that is shrinking, or at least, not getting appreciably bigger, despite population growth and the arrival of new generations of young people on the scene.

The default on a bond payment by China’s Chaori Solar last week signalled a reassessment of credit risk in a market where even high-yielding debt had been seen as carrying an implicit state guarantee. On Tuesday, another solar company announced a second year of net losses, leading to a suspension of its stock and bonds on the Shanghai stock exchange and stoking fears that it, too, may default.

There are internal and external forces at work in the Chinese situation. It’s important to remember lackluster growth in Europe, one of China’s biggest customers, is bound to exert continuing downward pressure on Chinese economic growth.

Emerging markets may well rebound strongly in the coming months, but any rebound will face the same ugly arithmetic. Ordinary households in too many countries have seen their share of total GDP plunge. Until it rebounds, the global imbalances will only remain in place, and without a global New Deal, the only alternative to weak demand will be soaring debt. Add to this continued political uncertainty, not just in the developing world but also in peripheral Europe, and it is clear that we should expect developing country woes only to get worse over the next two to three years.

“Market reforms” such as would come with an International Monetary Fund (IMF) loan package would probably cause further hardship in the industrialized eastern areas of the country.

Stratfor and other emphasize the role of certain “oligarchs” in the Ukraine, operating more or less behind the scenes. I take it these immensely rich individuals in many cases were the beneficiaries of privatization of former state enterprise assets.

The Middle East

Again, politics is supreme. Political alliances between Saudi Arabia and others seeking to overturn Assad in Syria create special conditions, for sure. The successive governments in Egypt, apparently returning to rule by a strongman, are one layer – another layer is the increasingly challenged economic condition in the country – where fuel subsidies are commonly doled out to many citizens. Israel, of course, is a focus of action and reaction, and under Netanyahu is more than ready to rattle the sword. After Iraq and Afghanistan, it seems always possible for conflict to break out in unexpected directions in this region of the world.

A situation seems to be evolving in Turkey, which I do not understand, but may be involved with corruption scandals and spillovers from conflicts not only Syria but also the Crimea.

The United States

A good part of the US TV viewing audience has watched part or all of House of Cards, the dark, intricate story of corruption and intrigue at the highest levels of the US Congress. This show reinforces the view, already widely prevalent, that US politicians are just interested in fund-raising and feathering their own nest, and that they operate more or less in callous disregard or clear antagonism to the welfare of the people at large.

This is really too bad, in a way, since more than ever the US needs people to participate in the political process.

I wonder whether the consequence of this general loss of faith in the powers that be might fall naturally into the laps of more libertarian forces in US politics. State control and policies are so odious – how about trimming back the size of the central government significantly, including its ability to engage in foreign military and espionage escapades? Shades of Ron Paul and maybe his son, Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky.

South and Central America

Brazil snagged the Summer 2016 Olympics and is rushing to construct an ambitious number of venues around that vast country.

While the United States was absorbed in wars in the Middle East, an indigenous, socialist movement emerged in South American – centered around Venezuela and perhaps Bolivia, or Chile and Argentina. At least in Venezuela, sustaining these left governments after the charismatic leader passes from the scene is proving difficult.

Africa

Observing the ground rule that this sort of inventory has to be fairly easy, in order to be convincing – it seems that conflict is the order of the day across Africa. At the same time, the continent is moving forward, experiencing economic development, dealing with AIDS. Perhaps the currency situation in South Africa is the biggest geopolitical risk.

Bottom Line

The most optimistic take is that the outlook and risks now define a sort of interim period, perhaps lasting several years, when the level of conflict will increase at various hotspots. The endpoint, hopefully, will be the emergence of new technologies and products, new industries, which will absorb everyone in more constructive growth – perhaps growth defined ecologically, rather than merely in counting objects.

History also shows that market shocks caused by war, terrorism and other fear-rattling events tend to be short-lived.

In 14 shocks dating back to the attack on Pearl Harbor in December 1941, the median one-day decline has been 2.4%. And the shocks, which also include the Sept. 11 terror attacks and the 1962 Cuban missile crisis, lasted just eight days, with total losses of 7.4%, data from S&P Capital IQ show. The market recouped its losses 14 days later.

If there is a consensus, it is probably that geopolitical risks have a tendency to go away. Think back over the last 24 years, going all the way back to the Kuwait crisis, and you will recall that markets sold off initially but recovered as the conflicts turned out either to be shorter, or less economically damaging, than they feared. Hence, while the markets have sold off today, the declines have hardly been substantial (between 0.8% and for the FTSE and 1.4% for the Dax at the time of writing).

One of these is Stratfor, founded by George Friedman in 1996, with subscription services and reports for purchase by business and other organizations. For the interested, here is a friendly but critical review of Friedman’s supposedly best-selling The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century (2009). Friedman actually predicts the disintegration of Russia in the 2020’s, following a re-assertion of Russian power westward, toward Europe. Hmmm.

Currently, Stratfor is highlighting the potential for the emergence of extreme right-wing groups in the Ukraine. This is a similar focus to one developed in an excellent article in Le Monde Diplomatique Ukraine beyond politics.

I don’t want to comment too extensively on the US role in the Ukraine, or the inevitable saber-rattling and accusations that not enough is being done.

Rather, I think it’s important to look at one particular graphic, presented initially by Business Insider and extensively tweeted thereafter.

So from a purely predictive standpoint, it seems unlikely the United States can originate and see implemented significant economic sanctions against Russia – since then, clearly, Russia has the power to retaliate through its control of significant natural gas supplies for western Europe.

The risk – plunging western Europe back into recession, again threatening the US economic recovery.

Economic rationality may provide some constraints to wild responses and actions, but the low performance of many economies since 2009 creates a fertile environment for the emergence of hot-heads, demagogues, and madmen.

So, what I guess I worry about is that the general geopolitical dynamics seem to be moving into greater and greater vulnerability to some idiotic minor event which functions as a tipping point.

But then again, the markets may go forth to a new stabilization very shortly, and it will be business as usual, with more than a modicum of background noise from politics.