christopher price

Is the next Patriots quarterback already on the roster?

FOXBORO -- Whether he gets a chance to play out his entire career in a Patriots uniform or ends up finishing with another franchise, there will be a day when Tom Brady is no longer the Patriots’ quarterback. And with Brady turning 35 earlier this month, that day will come sooner rather than later.

With Hoyer and Mallett currently working as the backup and third-string quarterbacks respectively, the Patriots appear to be better off than most teams when it comes to quarterback depth. But what about the post-Brady era? Does the organization view either one as a possible successor to the current quarterback? And what are some of their pluses and minuses?

If you’re looking for Brady Lite, you could do a lot worse than Hoyer. The 26-year-old undrafted free agent out of Michigan State has been in the New England system for three years, and while he’s no Brady, when he’s gotten the chance to run the show, he’s shown himself to be a fairly steady and consistent presence under center. In this year’s training camp, he’s consistently made the proper reads, not tried to bite off too much and delivered the ball in a good spot for his receivers.

Granted, it’s tough to evaluate him on his regular-season resume: In three years, he’s played in 13 games and gone 27-for-43 for 286 yards with one touchdown and one interception. However, a clearer picture of Hoyer emerges when you look at his preseason numbers: In 11 contests, he’s gone 94-for-158 (a 59 percent completion rate) with 1,166 yards, six touchdowns and one interception. (That includes an 8-for-15 effort with 45 yards passing and one touchdown last Thursday against the Saints. It was a night that included the finest offensive sequence of the evening for the Patriots, a 14-play, 97-yard drive that ended with the only touchdown of the game.)

Those preseason numbers must be taken with a grain of salt, obviously, but if you’re using 60 percent as an optimal completion rate, Hoyer’s numbers are favorable. He’s had three games where he’s had more than 170 yards passing (in all of those games, he’s completed 15 or more passes). Another stat that jumps out is one interception on 158 pass attempts in the preseason -- or two in 201 pass attempts, when you combine his preseason and regular-season work -- which shows excellent decision-making skills.

In fact, Hoyer’s preseason numbers compare very favorably to a former Brady backup who went on to land a fat new contract later in his career. From 2005 through 2008, Matt Cassel played in 16 preseason games over the course of his four years in New England, and finished 119-for-211 for 56 percent. He threw for 1,331 yards, with four touchdowns and five interceptions.

Given Hoyer’s track record and history, if he was pressed into service as a starter this year in New England, it wouldn’t be surprising if -- after a game or two to find his footing -- he would react much like Cassel did in 2008, when he led New England to an 11-5 mark. (In other words, he’s no Curtis Painter.)

There’s some uncertainty around Hoyer’s future in Foxboro -- after playing out his first deal, he signed a one-year, $1.927 million deal in the offseason, and so the team must make up its mind relatively quickly if it wants to keep him long term.

As for Mallett, he remains a bit of an enigma. The 24-year-old out of Arkansas, who is entering his second season in the league, has ridiculous arm strength -- in training camp, he has made some deep throws that Brady would struggle with. While Hoyer frequently settles for the safer play, Mallett doesn’t seem to fear opening it up. But at the same time, he’s shown inconsistency when it comes to short and intermediate routes. In some ways, he compares with Jay Cutler: great arm strength, but occasionally questionable decision-making.

Mallett fundamentally took a redshirt season last year, but in four preseason games (three last year and one this year), he has a stat line of 32-for-63 for 282 yards with no touchdowns and a pair of interceptions. In the preseason opener last week against the Saints, it was an uneven performance, as he made some good throws, but he also appeared to be thinking and reacting as opposed to making snap decisions much of the night.

Despite the contrast, while Hoyer may be the more palatable quarterback for the Patriots in the long run, Mallett is likely a better trade chip. He’s younger and he’s under contract for three more years as opposed to Hoyer’s one. And when it comes to other teams, the tacit endorsement of the Patriots (who took him in the third round in 2011) can go a long way in a quarterback-starved league.

Ultimately, all of this depends on Brady’s own timeline. If the quarterback decides to play another five years until he’s 40 (as he has said on several occasions), Brady’s heir is neither Mallett or Hoyer, but some collegian (or even a high schooler). But until Brady’s time in New England is done, the two will sit and wait for their opportunity.

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