Good to see those threads fall to the wayside now that we're back near $15/btc. I didn't have time to reply to all of them, but wanted to say this:

The supply of coin generation is NEAR CONSTANT

So while many people are mining and wanting to get rid of coins to pay for cost, the above part of many deflationary assumptions is seriously flawed. Also, miners DO wait (I'd guess on the order of a week or so) to sell coins when the market dips. So there are some minor contractions in "production" based on price level.

Anyhow, I had to get that off my chest.

Bottom line: BTCs are new. Standard models of analysis that are commonly used for stocks, bonds, commodities, futures and options don't necessarily apply.

I would agree to the point that greed and fear does play a major role in the day to day price action. Technical analysis is the best way to tell where the volatility of this market will led Bitcoins. IMO