Robry825 Daily Gas Flows- Comments

Daily Gas Flows (Comments)

.....NATGAS: Models say an injection of 36 BCF (EIA-wtd model) and 42 BCF (Capacity / Gas-flow model). We will see what .....the EIA says today. With baseline at 33 BCF, the estimates would be 3 BCF to-the-bearish (EIA) and 9 BCF to-the-bearish .....(Cap/GF) and would be the first report on the bearish side since Feb 8th.

.....Next weeks injection report (on this weeks mild weather) looks to be headed for the mid 70's, though baselines are again .....trying to slide into the positive.

.....We have crossed into a new month (May) and are waiting to see if any months-end changes come to the gas-flow .....(historically, changes seem to like month-end periods). To watch: 1) production model (will collapsing rig-counts lead May .....production lower as April did), and 2) will near-term economic strengthening lead industrial-flows higher.

.....But this is only the YOY stat's. I suspect the YO5Y numbers will look more bullish throughout.

.....ECONOMICS: The economy has began to climb again and looks to have started its third up-leg with a decent tandem-move in .....both industrial and consumption flows (though the consumption index is so far above the industrial that it is having trouble with .....further gains in this mornings runs. Economy overall looks well-supported.

.....PRODUCTION / RESIDENTIAL & COMMERCIAL MODELING: Production Model remains in audit with problems still to be resolved. .....Will be adding one more new pipe to the production model shortly, while another (already in the model) appears to be skewed by .....withdrawals and needs to be rebuilt. R&C continues to be impacted by the skew issues (it has been turned into a "balancing item" .....by the other models) which will be dealt with in time by the replacement of the EIA-weighted model with the new (presumed more .....accurate) capacity model. (The storage demand category (also off) still represents the EIA-weighted model, but aside from the R&C, .....production, and storage models all other models (Generation, Industrial, Import, and Export) are walled off from the skew and .....production-counting problems, and presumed accurate).