Hurricane OTIS (Text)

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HURRICANE OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN OCT 02 2005
TWO RECENT SSM/I OVERPASSES AND A QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITY SOLUTION
CONFIRM THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TILTED CORE STRUCTURE OF OTIS.
APPARENTLY...THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS HAVING QUITE AN IMPACT ON
THE SYSTEM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS DRIER AIR ENTRAINING INTO
THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AS WELL. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES
REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BANDING FEATURE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE
T-NUMBERS HAVE DROPPED TO 65 KT FROM AFWA AND TAFB...AND 77 KT FROM
SAB RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 65 KT. THE
SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND AN UNFAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD WEAKEN OTIS TO A TROPICAL STORM IN
24 HOURS...FURTHER WEAKENING THE SYSTEM TO A DEPRESSION IN 72 HOURS
AS IT MOVES OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE GFDL AND FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE ALSO REFLECT THIS WEAKENING TREND. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED SCENARIO AND IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 360/3. OTIS REMAINS WITHIN A BREAK IN
A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS EITHER DISSIPATE THE
SYSTEM IN 72 HOURS OR REFLECT A MERGE/ABSORPTION SCENARIO WITH A
DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW JUST WEST OF THE CENTRAL BAJA COAST AS
NOGAPS NOW INDICATES. BASED ON THE ECMWF...GFDN...AND GFS
MODELS...OTIS COULD BECOME COMPLETELY SHEARED FROM THE MID- LEVEL
CIRCULATION AND DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD...PARALELLING THE BAJA COAST AS
A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4. BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR AN INITIAL DRIFT
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...THEN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SPEED AS IT
APPROACHES THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST IN 36 HOURS.
AFTERWARD...OTIS SHOULD MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
AS A DEPRESSION...THEN DISSIPATE OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO IN 96 HOURS.
FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/0900Z 22.3N 111.9W 65 KT
12HR VT 02/1800Z 23.1N 112.2W 65 KT
24HR VT 03/0600Z 24.3N 112.5W 60 KT
36HR VT 03/1800Z 26.1N 112.9W 55 KT
48HR VT 04/0600Z 27.8N 113.0W 45 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 05/0600Z 29.6N 113.0W 30 KT
96HR VT 06/0600Z 32.0N 113.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED
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