by Patrick Stevens, Special for USA TODAY Sports

by Patrick Stevens, Special for USA TODAY Sports

Little is more reliable in college basketball than Duke making a play for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. The Blue Devils have found themselves on the top line in 10 of the last 15 years, and landed a No. 2 seed three other times in that span.

It will probably happen again, what with Duke toting a No. 1 ranking in the RPI, the nation's No. 2 schedule and a bounty of useful nonconference victories, including five top-50 triumphs on neutral courts.

But there is one problem for Duke, which dropped to 24-4 with a 73-68 loss at Virginia on Thursday: How much credit will it get if forward Ryan Kelly isn't effective in his anticipated return from injury in the coming weeks.

Kelly has not played since Jan. 8, when suffered a right foot injury in a victory over Clemson. The Blue Devils have dropped four games since then, in arguably their four most difficult road games in conference play to date --- at N.C. State, Miami, Maryland and Virginia.

Kelly was averaging 13.4 points and 5.4 rebounds at the time of the injury, and the senior's value has only become more apparent as Mason Plumlee has sprinkled in a few sluggish games to a generally dominant season and the Blue Devils have received inconsistent production from their substitutes for Kelly at the four.

The Blue Devils are expected to have Kelly back next week, but playing and performing at anywhere near the same level he did earlier in the season are two entirely different things.

If Kelly returns and Duke rolls through its final two conference games and the ACC tournament, this is all just needless chatter. The Blue Devils, by dint of their overall profile, will be an easy pick for a No. 1 seed.

But if he's clearly not himself and Duke stumbles a couple more times down the stretch, particularly outside Cameron Indoor Stadium? It's possible the Blue Devils could cede a spot on the top line of the bracket that's been theirs to lose since league play began back in January.

For now, Duke remains a No. 1 seed in Friday's projection. Whether it stays there depends on if Kelly indeed returns --- and if he and the Blue Devils can thrive over the next two and a half weeks.

About our bracketologist: Patrick Stevens is USA TODAY Sports' 2013 bracket specialist. He has covered college sports and projected the NCAA tournament field for more than a decade for various publications, including The Washington Times. Don't like his projections? Tweet him @D1scourse.