Policy Brief

Сomentários

Transcrição

Policy Brief

Leibniz Institute of
Agricultural Development
in Transition Economies
(IAMO)
www.iamo.de/en
Nº 22
Policy Brief
Issue No. 22
February 2015
Thomas Glauben
Linde Götz
Ulrich Koester
The rouble crisis and the Russian
grain export controls
Since 1 February 2015, an additional tax has been levied on Russian wheat exports to reduce the recently strongly rising wheat
exports. The aim is to dampen further increases in the already
high domestic wheat prices and to stabilise bread prices. However, recent experiences in various countries as Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Serbia, and Russia show that grain export restrictions do
little if anything to moderate bread prices. Poor people will also
fail to profit from this governmental market intervention. Instead, grain export barriers will disconnect the Russian grain
producers from the international markets while necessary investments in the grain sector decline which decreases food
security. This form of protectionism by the government is ample
cause for serious concern. Considering the current downswing
in the Russian economy, the destabilisation of the strategically
important grain sector will most certainly not improve the investment climate in Russia.
The rouble crisis has unexpected consequences in
Russia. Last year, Russian wheat farmers harvested
a bumper crop. The 2014 wheat harvest was about
22 per cent larger than the average wheat harvest
in the three preceding years (Rosstat, 2015). Yet,
an export duty on wheat was levied. The levied tax
is 15 per cent per ton but at least 35 euros per ton
plus 7.5 euros per ton. The tax is not levied on exports into countries of the Eurasian Economic Union. At the time the resolution was adopted, the domestic wheat price had increased higher than the
global market price (in roubles). The initial term of
the regulation will end in June 2015. Since December 2014, the authorities have also used administrative barriers to hinder grain exports. Booking
freight trains and obtaining export certificates has
become cumbersome. Russian authorities explain
the measures with the need to reduce the recent
high wheat exports and to ensure adequate grain
supplies for the domestic population; the idea is to
put a stop to the domestic price increases for grainbased consumer products. Until January 2015 in the
economic 2014 /2015 period, the grain export increased by more than 30 per cent above the wheat
export in the preceding year (Interfax, 2015). According to prevailing arguments¹, wheat producers
find it more lucrative to export wheat in exchange
for dollars than selling it domestically in exchange
for roubles. This diminishes the domestic wheat
supply and in turn, leads to higher bread prices.
The government measures are meant to ensure the
adequate food supply for Russian people.
Given these circumstances, we seek answers to
three pertinent questions, which we will discuss in
this IAMO Policy Brief:
—— Will the government measures have the
desired outcome?
—— How will the measures impact the overall
economy of the Russian Federation?
—— What are the impacts on the world markets
and the German grain producers?
Efficacy of the adopted measures
For export restrictions to improve food security
they have to bring down the domestic wheat prices
thereby halting increases in domestic bread prices.
Will export restrictions accomplish this? This is
rather doubtful.
Firstly, Russian experiences with ad hoc export
restrictions for the purpose of reducing prices in
2007/2008 and 2010 /2011 show the following:
While the restrictions temporarily halted the grain
prices, this price consolidation was mainly seen at
¹ Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich.
vestnikkavkaza.net/news/politics/65592.html
1
the producer price level. Even on this level, wide
regional discrepancies existed in regional markets.
The following examples demonstrate this: During
the 2010/2011 export stop, wheat prices deflated
by 70 per cent in the Northern Caucasus, the largest
wheat producing region and the only region with direct access to the world market. On the other hand,
only a 30 per cent deflation was seen in the far away
Ural (Götz et al., 2014). When exports were taxed in
2007/2008, the deflation of domestic wheat prices
was only temporary and price increases above world
market prices occurred despite taxation. With the
above experiences in mind, we expect a notable
price damping effect as a result of the current export restrictions in regions such as the Northern
Caucasus while the price deflation will be far less
pronounced in remote areas, which primarily supply their grain to the consumer regions of Russia.
Secondly, in all likelihood, the value of the rouble
will further decline. This supports the assumption
that any price deflation will be of short duration. In
the short time between 25 December 2014 and 10
February 2015, the Russian rouble lost another 30
per cent in value. Part of this rouble devaluation is
caused by the sharp drop in crude oil prices. In the
first six days of 2015, crude oil prices dropped just
short of another 11 per cent. The rouble devaluation reduces the grain export prices in US dollars
and gives Russian wheat producers a competitive
edge in the global wheat markets. This counteracts the effect of the export taxation. Therefore,
as a result of the rouble devaluation the wheat export will increase and the domestic wheat prices
will keep rising.
Thirdly, increased storage counteracts any price
damping effects. This can be explained with the
fact that the export controls are initially put in
place for five months. Foreseeably, wheat traders will store large amounts of wheat in expectation of higher domestic prices after the expiration
of the export duty. Additional storage further decreases the available domestic supply and leads to
higher prices. According to current expectations,
the amount of stored grain will be more than 18
million tons at the end of the economic year. This
will exceed even the stored grain volume during the
2010/2011 export ban (Agra-Europe, 2015)².
Fourthly, consumers will quite likely not experience any price reductions. For wheat export restrictions to have an effect on bread prices any
decrease in wheat prices must be passed on to
the consumer along all stages in the wheat-tobread value chain. The 2007/2008 as well as the
2010/2011 export restrictions did not result in any
notable price damping effects for consumers. In
the spring of 2008, Russia imposed an export tax.
Yet, the reduced wheat prices did not lead to the
corresponding decrease in flour prices. Instead, the
decrease in wheat price increased the difference
between wheat and flour prices. While the mills
increased their profits, consumers were still confronted with rising bread prices.³ It must be pointed
out that food prices in Russia are currently subject
to strict government control (Interfax, 2015; Agra-
Europe, 2015).⁴ To what extent the grain processing
industry can actually be pushed into passing price
decreases on to the consumer is everybody's guess.
Fifthly, even if the consumer price increases were
be slightly less, this would only marginally improve
the security of the food supply. Food security is
mostly a problem of poor households rather than
an issue of general availability of food items. Assuming that these households spend a major part
of their income on grain and grain products, the
small reduction in grain prices will scarcely improve
their nutritional situation. As is generally known,
grain prices constitute only a small percentage of
baked goods prices. Research indicates that a 17
per cent reduction in wheat prices in central Russia only leads to a 3 per cent bread price reduction
in Moscow (Götz et al., 2014).
In summary, we doubt that in the face of the ever
declining value of the rouble the export taxation will
have a beneficial effect on the Russian domestic
wheat prices, the bread prices or the food security
of the Russian population. We expect the wheat export taxation to be largely ineffective.
Economic costs of the government
measures
Aside from examining whether levelling the export
tax will prevent bread price increases their economic costs need to be taken into account. It is also
worthwhile to contemplate whether the measure
is economically sensible.
We expect that the measure will only moderately
halt the further increase in wheat prices. However,
in the face of continuing rouble devaluation, this
damping of wheat and bread prices would be shortlived. In the short term, producers and grain traders
would experience loss in profit and income while
consumers would hardly notice any price relief. Low
grain prices are also beneficial for keeping farm
animals.⁵
Secondly, unforeseeable government intervention in the grain market will make it impossible
for Russian grain producers and traders to hedge
against price fluctuations in international futures
markets. With increasing risk for grain producers
² The government has already threatened enterprises with
exclusion from government subsidies in retaliation for
not offering enough grain for domestic consumption (AgraEurope, 2015). However, it is unclear to what extent the
government is able to control the sales volume of wheat for
domestic consumption.
³ Bread prices increased as a result of higher energy
and labour costs. The price lowering effects of the export
restrictions were so small that they could not prevent
increases in bread prices.
⁴ Due to the drastic devaluation of the rouble and the
Russian sanctions against the import of agricultural goods,
the prices of largely imported food items will increase.
This will affect especially the fruit and vegetable supply
(Agra-Europe, 2015).
⁵ A close relationship exists between wheat and feed wheat
because the products are interchangeable. High wheat
prices are usually accompanied by high feed wheat prices.
2
and storage facilities the costs of producing and
storing grain will increase. As a consequence, growers will receive lower prices for their wheat from
traders and the profitability of the wheat production decreases.
Thirdly, even if the government interferes with
the wheat markets for a limited time only, the integration of the Russian grain market into the global
market will be diminished for quite a while. Russia will become a less reliable and therefore less
important grain supplying country. Grain import
contracts for delivery after 30 June 2015 will be
deemed uncertain. Since the current government
restrictions may continue or even be tightened,
Russian grain traders are unsure about their ability to export grain at predictable prices. Foreign
importers will only be ready to assume the default
risk of Russian grain contracts if the price of Russian grain is lower than the price of grain from other
countries. This will lead to lower domestic prices,
and Russian grain export prices will sink below the
price of comparable grain from other countries. As
a result, the Russian grain industry will be negatively impacted for the long term.
Fourthly, in the medium and long term, Russian
grain producers will produce less grain due to lower
prices and higher price risks. This will decrease Russian grain exports and disconnect the Russian grain
sector from the international grain markets. Furthermore, investments in the development of the
grain sector will likely diminish. Russia has a considerable growth potential in the grain sector with
additional business opportunities. To realise this
potential, comprehensive investments, especially
private sector investments in modern technologies, are required (Glauben et al., 2014). Export restriction decrease private investments in the grain
sector. Especially in times of recession, these investments could result in significant and welcome
income opportunities.
Overall, the government measures lead to the
separation of the Russian grain sector from the international markets. Grain producers and traders
will suffer income losses while consumers profit little or not at all. In the long-term, necessary investments in the strategically important grain sector
will diminish. This works against a more secure Russian food supply and consumer price moderation.
Impact on the global markets and the
German grain producers
Egypt, Turkey, India, and Armenia opens additional
export opportunities for German grain.
In the medium and long term, the Russian retreat
from the global grain markets will have a negative
impact on securing adequate food supplies to satisfy global needs. In 2012, the FAO and OECD estimated that the global grain production must increase by 30 per cent until 2050. As a large grain
supplier Russia would be able to play a significant
role in securing the global food supply.
Concluding remarks
According to the above findings, Russian politicians
would be well-advised to forego government interventions in the Russian grain industry even though
the rouble crisis will de facto lead to consumer price
inflation. As past experiences show, additional taxes
on Russian grain exports will not notably help the
Russian consumer. This also applies to the poor population. On the contrary, in the medium term, export taxes will impede the strategically important
Russian grain sector and slow production and trade
with grain and grain products. This will decrease
the integration of Russia’s grain sector in international markets and will negatively impact the ability
to secure sufficient food supplies for the Russian
population. In the long run, export restriction will
come at a high price for the Russian economy. Direct financial support for needy populations to assist in adapting to high consumer prices is a more
efficient and in the long run, the more cost-effective response. The Russian Grain Union suggests
providing food vouchers (Reuters, 2015).
The repeated restrictions on wheat exports are
also not without consequences for the global food
situation. According to projections by the USDA in
December 2014 (USDA, 2014), in 2014/2015, Russia
could be the second-largest global wheat exporter
and fifth-largest global supplier of feed grains. The
repeated encumbrances on Russian grain exporters
contribute to a disintegration of the global grain
markets. Russia could be an important grain export
country and play a significant role in ensuring the
future global grain supply (Glauben et al., 2014).
However, permanent access to global markets is
essential to actualise this potential. With this in
mind, the current efforts to establish a free trade
area between the EU and the Eurasian Economic
Union are a positive sign.
The short-term impact on the global grain market
will be limited. Currently, the wheat and feed grain
silos are well stocked. Therefore, we do not expect a
significant impact on the global grain market. However, in the medium and long-term, we anticipate
noticeable price increases due to the less reliable
integration of the Russian grain sector.
The short and medium-term impact of the Russian export taxation on the German grain markets
is awaited to be positive. The temporary Russian
retreat from the traditional grain import countries
3
Further Information
Contact
Literature
Agra-Europe (2015):
various issues.
Djuric, I., Götz, L., Glauben,
T. (2014): Are Export
Restrictions an Effective
Instrument to Insulate
Domestic Prices against
Skyrocketing World Market
Prices? The Wheat Export
Ban in Serbia, Agribusiness:
an International Journal.
Glauben, T., Belyaeva, M.,
Bobojonov, I., Djuric, I.,
Götz, L., Hockmann, H.,
Müller, D., Perekhozhuk, O.,
Petrick, M., Prehn, S.,
Prishchepov, A., Renner, S.,
Schierhorn, F. (2014):
Eastern breadbasket
obstructs its market and
growth opportunities.
IAMO Policy Brief No. 16,
Halle (Saale).
www.iamo.de/dok/
IAMOPolicyBrief16_en.pdf
Götz, L., Djuric, I., Glauben, T.
(2014): Price Dumping and
Price Insulating Effects
of Wheat Export Restrictions
in Kazakhstan, Russia, and
Ukraine. Contributed Paper,
54th Annual Conference
of the German Association of
Agricultural Economists
(GeWiSoLa), 17.– 19.
September 2014, Göttingen
(Germany).
ageconsearch.umn.edu/
handle/187448
Götz, L., Djuric, I., Glauben, T.
(2015): Sind Exportkontrollen ein wirksames Instrument zur Stabilisierung
der Nahrungsmittelpreise?
Erfahrungen in Russland,
Ukraine, Kasachstan und
Serbien. IAMO Annual
2015:27–40.
www.iamo.de/dok/
iamo2015_de.pdf
Götz, L., Glauben, T.,
Brümmer, B. (2013): Wheat
export restrictions and
domestic market effects in
Russia and Ukraine during
the food crisis. Food Policy
(38): 214–226.
Prof. Dr. Thomas Glauben
[email protected]
Tel.:+49 345 2928-200
Interfax (2015): Russia
% CIS: Food and Agriculture
Weekly, various issues.
Dr. Linde Götz
[email protected]
Tel.:+49 345 2928-327
Reuters (2015): Coupons
may help poor Russians cope
with bread price risefarmers group, January 26
2015.
www.reuters.com/article/
2015/01/26/
russia-crisis-breadidUSL6N0V52TK20150126
Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. mult.
Ulrich Koester
[email protected]
Tel.: +49 431 880-4436
Rosstat (2015): Nationale
Statistiken, Statistikamt
Russland.
USDA (2014): World Agricultural Supply and Demand
Estimates Report (WASDE).
Dec. Washington.
Leibniz Institute of
Agricultural Development
in Transition Economies
(IAMO)
Theodor-Lieser-Str. 2
06120 Halle (Saale)
Germany
www.iamo.de/en
Print Edition: ISSN 2363-5800
ISBN 978-3-938584-90-3
Online Edition: ISSN 2363-5797
ISBN 978-3-938584-93-4
OECD / FAO (2012): OECDFAO Agricultural Outlook
2012–2021, Rome.
This study is part of the projects GERUKA (www.iamo.de/geruka), MATRACC (www.iamo.de/matracc) and AGRICISTRADE
(www.agricistrade.eu). Financial support for this study was provided by the German Federal Ministry of Food and
Agriculture (BMEL), the German Federal Office for Agriculture and Food (BLE), the Volkswagen Foundation
(VolkswagenStiftung) and the European Commission.
Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development
in Transition Economies (IAMO)
ing the resulting impacts on the agricultural and
food sector as well as the living conditions of rural populations. The outcomes of our work are
The Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development used to derive and analyse strategies and opin Transition Economies (IAMO) analyses eco- tions for enterprises, agricultural markets and
nomic, social and political processes of change politics. Since its foundation in 1994, IAMO has
in the agricultural and food sector, and in rural been part of the Leibniz Association, a German
areas. The geographic focus covers the enlarging community of independent research institutes.
EU, transition regions of Central, Eastern and South
Eastern Europe, as well as Central and Eastern Asia.
IAMO is making a contribution towards enhancing
understanding of institutional, structural and
technological changes. Moreover, IAMO is study4