Friday, July 28, 2017

Staunton, July 28 – One of the most
important features of Moscow’s behavior but one that at the same time Western
leaders typically fail to recognize and incorporate in their responses is that
the Kremlin employs regularly employs the same strategy and tactics again and
again albeit in new times and in new locations.

Indeed, it all too often seems to be
the case that Russia’s relationship with the West is best captured by what was
said of the Bourbons two centuries ago: the Russians have never forgotten
anything that they have done before and the West has never learned anything
from that all too obvious and heinous historical record.

That makes analyses which draw a
parallel between what the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union did in the past
with what Putin is doing now especially valuable because if the West recognizes
the first steps of what is likely Moscow’s strategy, it will be in a far better
position to counter it.

This is something that at least some
Ukrainian officials understand, Shmulyevich says, because they recognize that “Russia
has frequently used such a scheme in the past,” most prominently in the case of
the Winter War.Now, he and they think,
there is a strong possibility of another “Winter War” action but this time
against Ukraine and in the summer.

In 1940, “Stalin declared that a
communist uprising against ‘the Whites’ had occurred.” It then announced “the
formation of ‘the Finnish Democratic Republic,’ headed by Finnish communist
Otto Kuusinen.” This republic, like Malorossiya, was “proclaimed on Finnish
territories occupied by Soviet forces.

“The USSR recognized it and to
assist ‘the Finnish brothers,’ the Red Army launched an attack along the entire
front from the Gulf of Finland to the Barents Sea,” Shmulyevich reminds.Earlier, during the Russian Civil War, Moscow
used a similar tactic against Ukraine and Georgia, ultimately incorporating
them into the Soviet Union.

Now, “the Donets Army created by
Moscow is again trying to liquidate the independence of Ukraine,” the Israeli
analyst says. And “in exactly the same way.”And that must be a matter of concern because in all previous cases, “when
Moscow applied this strategy, the West did not provide real military and even
diplomatic help to the independent states which had become the victim of
Russian aggression.”

“Three Russian divisions were
recently brought up to [Ukraine’s] borders,” and the question arises: “What
could stop Putin from a full-scale attack?”NATO countries “certainly do not want to intervene militarily. [And]
even the answer to the question ‘Will NATO die for Narva?” up to now is not
clear.”

But what is clear, Shmulyevich says,
is that the Western alliance will not intervene on Ukraine’s behalf not least because
Ukraine is not a member of NATO.Moreover,
its forces are much reduced from two decades ago, and the alliance would need “a
minimum of 14 to 18 days” to introduce forces.“By that time, Russian forces would reach the Dnipr.”

Consequently, he continues, “even if
NATO would like to intervene, it would not be able to stop the advance of the
Russians.” It might introduce more sanctions but that won’t frighten the
Kremlin or stop the Russian advance. Given that Kyiv is only about 300
kilometers from the Russian border, such a strike could allow Moscow to install
a comprador regime there.

“Putin – and he has said this
himself – has an idee fixe about the restoration of the borders of the USSR,”
just as “his idol Stalin had a dream about the restoration of the borders of
the Russian Empire of 1914.”And thus “Malorossiya”
should “disturb not only Ukrainians but all the neighbors of the Russian
Federation.”

An article in the Moscow newspaper Vzglyad, Shmulyevich says, suggests what
may be ahead and against which Ukrainians will have to fight with relatively few
allies unless the scope of the danger is recognized in Western capitals and a
more forceful policy is articulated and put in place.

In that article, ominously titled ‘Ukraine
is Fated Again to Become Malorossiya,” the author says that “Russia is
conducting a struggle for Ukraine not with the West … [but] with Kyiv. No one
knows how much time it will take to transform Ukraine into Malorossiya – three years,
five or even ten.But it inevitably will
become Malorossiya and htne part of a single Great Russia” (vz.ru/politics/2017/7/18/879201.html).

Shmulyevich notes “history
warns that the essence of the Russian Empire hasn’t changed … Whether the
proclamation of ‘Malorossiya’ will be the beginning of the realization of the
tested old scenario of imperial expansion depends in the first instance on
whether the states under threat … can mobilize and mobilize the support of the free
world.”

In the first Winter War, the Finns
supported by volunteers from Estonia and other countries fought the Soviet
Union to a draw; in the second, Shmulyevich concludes, whose first “shots” have
already been fired, the Ukrainians are likely to be forced to try to achieve
the same outcome in the same way.