Prospects Will Break Your Heart

San Francisco Giants Top 10 Prospects

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What Happened in 2012: The big Texan made his full-season debut and didn’t disappoint, showing electric stuff and looking like a future impact arm at the highest level.

Strengths: Excellent size/present strength; athletic delivery; arm is very fast; fastball is easy plus offering and could end up a 7 pitch; can work 92-95; touch higher; nice life; curveball has money-pitch potential; two-plane break and velo; plus with more potential; will show good utility on short cutter with late glove-side movement.

Fantasy Future: Has the type of stuff to miss bats and log innings; high ceiling as a starter and in relief, with closer potential if command/changeup fall short.

The Year Ahead: With only one season of full-season ball under his belt, Crick is still in the infancy of his developmental process. His raw stuff was good enough to overpower Sally League hitters, but he will need to refine his mechanics and find consistency in his release to find sustainable success going forward. It helps when you have plus stuff and a strong, athletic frame, but adding pitchability to the mix isn’t a given, and will have a heavy hand in Crick’s long-term role, whether that comes near the front of a major-league rotation or at the back of a major-league bullpen.

Fantasy Future: Not a fancy arm, but a workhorse in the making, with a heavy fastball that he can pound the zone with, a promising changeup to keep hitters off the fastball, and a curveball that has the potential to be a solid-average offering. A 200-inning type who keeps the ball on the ground.

The Year Ahead: Blackburn is an advanced arm for his age, with a man’s body and a seasoned vet’s feel for the strike zone. If he can keep the sinking fastball away from the middle of the plate, use the changeup to both lefties and righties, and refine the curveball to the average level, he’s going to cruise until he reaches the upper minors. Even then he might not face a big challenge if the command holds up. It’s not a sexy ceiling, but it’s solid and relatively safe. Blackburn might not emerge as the next great arm in the Giants system, but I bet he’s still standing when the music stops.

What Happened in 2012: A low mileage arm that was taken 20th overall in the 2012 and has a chance to be on the fast track given his deep arsenal and pitchability.

Strengths: Prototypical size; good delivery; has some deception; two-seam velocity is average, but shows good late wiggle to the arm-side; four-seamer can work plus and touch mid-90s velo; thrown with good angle; slider plays well off fastball and has good glove-side slice; can add/subtract from length; can change sight line and plane with average curveball; can turn over changeup; pitches well in sequence; has pitchability.

Weaknesses: Lacks electric stuff; fastball is more pedestrian and flat when elevated; arm can show drag in delivery; curveball is inconsistent; lacks plus depth; secondary command and execution needs refinement; can throw strikes, but needs to turn control into command to reach ceiling.

Fantasy Future: Without high-end stuff, Stratton will rely on sequence and location to force weak contact and disrupt timing. He shows the feel for pitch manipulation and could end up with four average or better pitches in his deep arsenal. Could settle in as a slightly better than league-average type at middle of rotation.

The Year Ahead: Stratton is a good candidate to move quickly thanks to his ability to execute a four-pitch mix and his overall feel for the craft. If the slider reaches plus he could have an out pitch, and if the changeup takes a step forward, he might have a chance to play above his projection. Lots to like here.

What Happened in 2012: Brown was a consensus Top 100 player in the minors coming into the 2012 season, but an up-and-down Double-A campaign damaged his status, and left many wondering what happened to the impact potential.

Strengths: Plus athlete; well above average run; covers ground in center; can flash plus leather; reads/routes are solid; can put the bat to the ball; contact and speed should allow for offensive opportunities; very strong against lefties; high major-league floor.

Weaknesses: Hasn’t been able to make many adjustments at the pro level; many sources suggested “he’s the same player he was in college”; tendency to open up early; loses the ability to drive the ball; loses all-field approach; power won’t be a big part of his game; baserunning needs work; makes too many outs on the field; tools play down.

Overall Future Potential: High 5; solid-average player

Explanation of Risk: Moderate risk; already achieved Double-A level; has defensive profile to play in majors.

Fantasy Future: Has the wheels to steal and the bat for average; unlikely to provide over-the-fence power, but could be extra-base hit threat if bat reaches ceiling.

The Year Ahead: After a hot-and-cold 2012, Brown will look to re-establish himself as a future impact player at the highest level. The adjustment issue and lack of growth is a red flag, but the overall athleticism and glove-work give him a high floor. Even if the bat is only average, the defensive profile will have use on a major-league bench (eventually). If he can refine his baserunning and help his tools to play up to their level and not down, he has a chance to be a down-the-lineup center fielder at the highest level.

The Year Ahead: Thanks to a few setbacks on the hill and on the injury front, Hembree wasn’t able to reach the majors as expected in 2012. If he can stay healthy and refine his command, he can find work at the highest level. The fastball is a very good offering, a low-mid 90s, bottom-heavy pitch that he backs up with a low-mid 80s cut slider, and should be a hard duo for right handers to deal with at any level. Most likely a setup arm, Hembree has impact potential and should get the chance to prove that very soon.

What Happened in 2012: Making his professional debut in Advanced A-ball, Susac was extremely cold for most of the summer, but finally found his groove in August, producing a .904 OPS.

Strengths: Plus raw pop; good strike-zone awareness; has a plan at the plate; shows good extension and can make loud contact; good catch/throw skills; solid arm; good lateral movements; backstop intangibles.

Fantasy Future: Has the pop to hit 20 bombs from a premium defensive position; most likely a sub .260 hitter; some on-base skills; not a stolen base threat.

The Year Ahead: With a few tweaks to the offensive game, Susac could blossom into a much better prospect than his 2012 stats might suggest. He has promising raw pop, but the swing is limiting and was exploited by A-ball pitchers. If he can shorten up and use his approach to work himself into fastball counts, he isn’t going to be an easy out. The defensive profile is solid and he projects to remain behind the plate. If the bat shows some life, his prospect status will rise in 2013.

What Happened in 2012: Good college hitters are supposed to crush in short-season ball, and Williamson did just that, hitting for average and power in his brief run through the Northwest League.

Strengths: Huge man with loud tools; power potential is easy plus; raw power is at least plus-plus; shows natural feel for hitting; brings a plan to the plate; runs very well for size; arm is very strong; solid glove; potential to show all five tools.

Weaknesses: Mixed reviews on hit tool; swing can show length; slow to trigger; some struggles against soft/spinning; how much power plays?; high-maintenance size.

The Year Ahead: Williamson’s raw tools are legit, but scouts are mixed as to whether he will be able to hit at the highest level. He’s a good candidate to move fast and mash in the lower levels, but the swing could limit his success against better pitching and he has bust potential as a result. With a limited sample, the future is still very cloudy, but Williamson has a rare tool package for a college draftee and a very high ceiling should the bat play.

What Happened in 2012: After raking in his short-season debut in 2011, Panik made the jump to the California League, where the bat showed some life and the game skills were solid.

Strengths: Baseball instincts; bat-to-ball skills; very good hands at the plate; short to the ball with excellent bat control; hit tool has above-average potential; good plan at the plate; good actions in the field; arm is solid; game type that can play above tool grades.

Explanation of Risk: Moderate risk; awaiting the Double-A test; good game skills.

Fantasy Future: Has a chance to be a starting second baseman; hit tool player with some secondary skills; .275-plus with doubles pop.

The Year Ahead: Panik will move to the Double-A level, where his approach will keep him in counts and his contact ability should allow him to put the ball in play. He’s not going to be a big power threat, but he can drive the ball and use the gaps. If scouts were sold on his ability to stick at short, his prospect star would shine brighter, but the reality of his skill set will most likely keep him on the right side of the infield, where it will take more than contact ability to find value at the highest level. He’s a very good baseball player with a utility floor, but if the bat can carry the weight, he has a chance to develop into a regular at second.

What Happened in 2012: Agosta might lack the flash of a higher ceiling arm, but with solid-average stuff and good feel for pitching, he could be a fast riser in the system.

Strengths: Athletic; good delivery; creates angles; fastball is 90-93 with good movement; can work either side of the plate; changeup is plus offering; good arm speed and late action; slider plays to average; feel for sequence; pitchability.

Weaknesses: Lacks prototypical size; stuff is more solid-average than plus; loses fastball command at plus velocity; will work up; breaking ball isn’t big bat-missing weapon; relies more on sequence and setup than stuff; command needs to be sharper.

Fantasy Future: It won’t be sexy, but the stuff has a chance to play; pitchability and pitch mix for rotation; middle-relief floor.

The Year Ahead: Agosta is ready to move, and is a good candidate to find immediate success at the full-season level. His fastball is a lively offering, normally working in the low-90s, but can top out a little higher. The changeup is a major-league quality pitch, one he felt comfortable throwing to both lefties and righties in college. The breaking ball isn’t special, but he knows how to use it. With refined command, the solid-average arsenal will play, but he’s not a pitcher that can live loose in the zone without getting exploited.

Weaknesses: Bad approach; good/bad contact; doesn’t work counts; doesn’t show patience or a plan; below-average power; speed can play down; not a plus defender; low-effort player at times.

Overall Future Potential: 5; second-division player

Explanation of Risk: Low risk; has the glove/speed for major-league role; bat/effort are question marks.

Fantasy Future: Contact ability with plus run; some extra-base potential because of speed; not impact player.

The Year Ahead: The approach killed Peguero in Triple-A, making him an empty contact threat with little on-base ability beyond his average. The glove and speed could make him a bench outfielder at worst, but he has the potential for a little more if he can refine his overall approach at the plate and work himself into more favorable spots. He’s never going to kill the ball, but he can swing a bat and he has some defensive versatility, so a major league future is there if he wants to take it.

Major league ETA: 2012

Prospects on the Rise:

1. LHP Adalberto Mejia: 19-year-old Dominican lefty with a heavy two-seamer and a good slider, Mejia is ready to claim a top 10 spot next season. The stuff isn’t crazy, but he shows pitchability and a starter’s arsenal, so if he can refine his command and hit his spots, he should be able to find success all the way up the chain. Good arm.

2. LHP Ty Blach: A fifth round pick in 2012, Blach is a good candidate to move forward in 2013. He brings a low-90s fastball with above-average movement and a promising changeup that should develop into an above-average offering. It’s not flashy, but like Mejia, he shows feel for the mound and has a starter’s arsenal, so he could move quickly and take a big step forward next season.

3. OF Gustavo Cabrera: High-profile Dominican Summer League player that is absolutely jacked with tools, Cabrera might possess the highest ceiling in the Giants system. With plus-plus speed and big power potential, the young outfielder has the potential to be an impact prospect. It remains to be seen if Cabrera can actually play baseball, or if he’s just a toolshed, but if he can bring the raw tools into game action, his star will be on the rise.

Factors on the Farm (Prospects likely to contribute at the ML level in 2013

1. RHP Chris Heston: After a solid Double-A season, former 12th round pick Chris Heston positioned himself for a major league look in 2013. It’s not an impact profile, but if he can spot his heavy two-seamer down in the zone and use his off-speed stuff to keep hitters off the fringe velocity of the fastball, he can find some success at the highest level.

2. LHP Michael Kickham: The 24-year-old has good stuff from the left-side—including a plus fastball—with feel and utility for a deep secondary arsenal. Some scouts think Kickham would be a better fit in the bullpen, where his velocity could play up and his command issues could play down, but he has the body and the arsenal to develop into a back of the rotation workhorse. Either way, Kickham is a major-league arm and should see action in 2013.

3. OF Juan Perez: Catalytic player with a high motor and some defensive skills in the outfield, Perez is a likely role player at the highest level. He isn’t going to wow you with his bat, although he can jump on mistakes and make a pitcher work for the out. It’s more about the speed and the glove, and if he can produce enough while he’s waiting in the wings, his call to the show might come sooner rather than later.

Winners of two of the last three World Series titles, the Giants have a bevy of young, talented players, including many that fall just a couple years outside this list. With a talented young roster and routine additions of veterans that can fill a specific role, it is no wonder they continue to succeed at the highest level and win championships. The pitching staff still draws much of the acclaim but the fact remains that this organization is led by their reigning MVP, catcher Buster Posey. A supreme leader, high-end defender and exceptional offensive talent, Posey is a superstar talent that should be the face of the franchise for the foreseeable future.

While pitchers like Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain draw much of the front-page notice, left-hander Madison Bumgarner is a tremendous talent who will pitch nearly the entire 2013 season, his third full campaign, at the age of 23. Bumgarner has the upside of a dominating no. 2 starter and if not for positional scarcity may have a strong case for ranking ahead of Posey on this list. As members of the Giants pitching staff begin to age, most notably Ryan Vogelsong and Barry Zito, the Giants should have arms waiting in the wings as pitchers like Kyle Crick, Clayton Blackburn, Chris Stratton, Mike Kickham, and Adalberto Mejia continue to develop. The Giants have seemingly maintained a healthy pipeline of pitching talent to augment the big-league staff, both in the rotation and the bullpen, and I don’t see that changing in the coming years.

Though he struggled to make some adjustments in the first half of his Double-A debut, outfielder Gary Brown looked better in the second half, hitting the ball harder, stealing bases and playing strong defense up the middle. I’m still a believer in Brown’s long-term potential and his up-the-middle tools help him rate slightly ahead of Brandon Belt.

Following a string of four seasons where they did not win more than 76 games, the Giants have been highly competitive in each of the last four seasons including two World Series titles. Don’t expect that trend to change in 2013, and if they can maintain their ability to develop pitchers to keep the staff stocked from within, that trend may not change for quite a while. –Mark Anderson

A Parting Thought: The system lacks depth and high-impact potential, but they find a way to make it work and have a good track record of developing young arms to their potential.

Like this list alot. I would probably switch Kickham and Agosta and scooch Susac down nearer Peguero, but all in all this seems pretty solid snapshot of system. The real surprise here is Ty Blach. Pretty maligned draft pick amongst many Giants fans (myself included). But the Giants PP people do know their arms. Still, surprised he's the guy there over Johnson or Okert. Really like the Williamson rank and writeup.

I'd also move Belt up the 25U list. Still think his future is 1st division mlb 1b.

Received several positive reports on Blach. It's not special profile, but they might have a major leaguer in the end, which is where the value is found. Like you said, the Giants have a good eye for arms, and they have a good track record when it comes to development.

Wow, so basically if Belt were still eligible for this list he'd only be 5th? I certainly respect your opinion and the work you put in but I don't know that I can make myself agree with that, especially since he seems to have a pretty broad base of skills for a 1B, even if none of them are exceptional yet.

The U25 and the rankings are separate beasts. I constructed and executed the prospect list, and Mark Anderson put together the U25. I'll let him weigh in on the Belt ranking, but I was always high on Belt. Of course, he's a Texan, so you know I'd rank him high on any list regardless of the tools. Ha

I struggled with the ranking of Brown and Belt in the U25 list. Different variations of the list had them flipped and flopped.

In the end, I'm a believer in Brown's hitting ability, gap power and premium defense in center field. That's a potent package for a player. I know there's a lot of skepticism out there about his ceiling, but I'm still on the bandwagon. I watched him live about 10-12 times last year and I still see an everyday guy playing a premium defensive position very, very well.

With Belt, I'm a fan as well. I think he can hit and hit for good power. I don't think he's a game changer at first base or on an outfield corner and in this case, that was the deciding factor for me. Belt is going to be a solid everyday guy as well, but I'm going to lean toward the premium defensive player in that case.

Okay, he is not a nebulously defined "game changer", but he is a good major leaguer, at least. Oddities like this seem to render the under-25 rankings meaningless. I have to agree with gdragon1977 here. If you would rather have any of Crick, Stratton, Blackburn or Brown in your organization instead of Brandon Belt I wouldn't bet on your team faring very well.

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I'm annoyed by the excessive jargon in this article. Always a problem on this site, it's way to much here. What does "average run" mean? Should that be runner, run-scoring ability? I resent being expected to know the latest jargon. Just explain yourself. "Two plane break and velo" Are you too lazy to spell out velocity or explain to the folks you treat like dummies what the latest scout jargon is? Please show me some respect.

Wow. Doesn't seem terribly beyond the pale to expect scouting reports to include scouting terminology. All professions generate their own language, and as linguistic barriers to entry go, I wouldn't say baseball scouting is the most difficult to jump over.

" Are you too lazy to spell out velocity or explain to the folks you treat like dummies what the latest scout jargon is? Please show me some respect."

Are you too lazy to read the primer at the top of each article? You are the first person to ever complain about the reports in such a manner. If we are disrespecting people because of the latest scout jargon, this is the first I've ever heard about it. I'm just going to assume its your problem, and not ours.

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Maybe he didn't put it as well as he could have, but I generally agree with Dave Scott. I don't think you're being lazy, but I do think that all of the jargon is designed to make anything clear or succinct. It seems mostly designed to give scouty talk a hip (and I use that term very loosely), insider feel, and the result is obfuscation and, sometimes, outright contradiction. Perhaps Baseball Prospectus should pave the way by cutting through the esoteric nonsense and bringing actual insider information to its readers in a more logical way.

I like the new format and "jargon" just fine. I've come to like them better than the previous formats, and that's not a slight to those. I don't think 'average run' is something that should be considered over anybody's head. Especially when the primer is posted at the top of each.

Keep up the good work, and please realize that there are myriad people out there that appreciate your hard work and the style you bring to it.

If I get into a technical discussion I expect technical jargon. I know we all aren't scouts here but when reading scouting reports I expect scouting jargon. It seems Jason has always been receptive to explaining any term that someone might not be familiar with. I'd rather educate myself than ask the world to dumb everything down for me.

I honestly don't see what is so difficult to understand about this "jargon." Two plane break is pretty self explanatory, especially in the context of a breaking ball. Yeah, you might have to invest a few minutes in reading the primer, but on the whole you get a shit-ton more information here than most other sites. I'm glad BP isn't watering down the product, and is setting the bar higher for everyone in this respect (and many others)

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If you call it "dumbing down", of course people will act negatively. But if you use words and terms only an in crowd understand or make them look up or assume the meaning you will turn people off. PB does some great things in this area, like highlighting the formulas when you mouse over it. But when you use jargon and take an attitude like Jason's you are going to turn people off. That's what I meant by respect. Explaining things thoroughly is not dumbing down, it's good writing.

I don't agree at all that you would turn people off by using language that you may need to look up or ask about. Some of the greatest authors in history have written very respected pieces of literature using plenty of words that none of us may have heard of. I still find myself looking up words that I read in classic novels. That's how I educate myself.

No surprise that you included Gustavo here, but how close was Nathaniel Javier as a consideration? Seems like his ability to "actually play baseball" is a slightly more known commodity, and even if the full package isn't Gustavo-level toolshed, the raw power is enticing.

Jason- thank you again for responding to the comments- I'm finding this section actually covers a lot of the honorable mentions and just missed types. It's the most informative comments section on the interweb, and I don't mean that as faint praise.

Just so everyone understands, nobody involved in writing these articles is being lazy. I understand the writing may be different from what some of you may have become accustomed to in the past. It doesn't mean it's wrong or bad or lazy. It just means it's different. And yes, we will continue to challenge our readers by bringing new concepts, terminology and ideas to the table.

There's a primer at the beginning of every top 10 list for your reference. And Jason has been more than happy to answer any of your questions.

Again, if you want to disagree with a player's assessment, that's completely acceptable and fine. But this staff, my staff, is not being lazy. Otherwise I promise you, they wouldn't be here.

Roger Keishnick was injured last year just as he was enjoying a breakout season. I know he's a tool-laden 26 yr.old with a lot of swing and miss but if he's for real It's not like a platoon of Blanco/Torres is insurmountable. Do you see a regular or 4th OF type at best?

I'm no prospect expert, but I don't know anyone who seriously considers him as a future big-leaguer. He's lost a couple of very valuable years of development time and is big, slow, and out of shape. I saw him in a couple of games this spring and he looked pretty awful. That's not to say he *couldn't* turn it all around, but it certainly doesn't seem likely at this stage.