Trading with The Flyhttp://ibankcoin.com/flyblog
a finance blog, of the highest order.Sat, 10 Dec 2016 01:59:42 +0000en-UShourly1https://wordpress.org/?v=4.5.4Tucker Carlson Takes on Washpo Reporter Who Claimed Trump Won Because of ‘Angry White Men’http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2016/12/09/tucker-carlson-takes-on-washpo-report-who-claimed-trump-won-because-of-angry-white-men/
http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2016/12/09/tucker-carlson-takes-on-washpo-report-who-claimed-trump-won-because-of-angry-white-men/#commentsSat, 10 Dec 2016 01:52:08 +0000http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/?p=61717The warm blanket that democrats wrap themselves in at night is a dream that angry white men will die off …

]]>The warm blanket that democrats wrap themselves in at night is a dream that angry white men will die off in large enough numbers so that a true renaissance of psychotic illiberals — like Jennifer Rubin — can rise to power and lead America into the next phase towards its ultimate demise. It’s a very potent and divisive thing for journalists to say, pretending to know the spirit and soul of men based upon the color of their skin. The lie, or fake news, of massive hordes of white men descending from their trailer park thrones on election night to vote for Trump, en masse, is a myth.

The same, so called racist, white men were the good folks who voted for Obama twice, once in 2008 and again in 2012 — so there’s always that.

Specifically tackling the argument of who voted for Trump, the numbers don’t lie. He received less white votes than Romney and 3x the amount of black Americans. Perhaps the very nervous and mentally addled Jennifer Rubin should set aside her confirmation bias prior to making scathing allegations about a race of people. Then again, it’s rather trendy to deride and to shame white people these days, isn’t it?

Jennifer Rubin and her ilk are perfect examples of why democrats have lost over 900 legislative offices over the past 6 years and hold just 11 governorships. The party, literally, is dying.

]]>http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2016/12/09/tucker-carlson-takes-on-washpo-report-who-claimed-trump-won-because-of-angry-white-men/feed/3Runaway Dollars Send Gold Plunging to 10 Month Lows; Value Stocks Continue to Outperform Growthhttp://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2016/12/09/runaway-dollars-send-gold-plunging-to-10-month-lows-value-stocks-continue-to-outperform-growth/
http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2016/12/09/runaway-dollars-send-gold-plunging-to-10-month-lows-value-stocks-continue-to-outperform-growth/#commentsFri, 09 Dec 2016 18:11:39 +0000http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/?p=61713Am I obsessing much about this? I know that I should be celebrating this reinvigorated splendor, joining the party to …

]]>Am I obsessing much about this? I know that I should be celebrating this reinvigorated splendor, joining the party to partake in ritualistic slaughtering of the bears — but I’m not ready to make that plunge just yet. Plus anyway, you and I both know the second I commit to the long side, the market will forever top and then come crumbling down like a piece of pound cake lodged in a glass of milk.

The yen just took out 115 v the dollar — as dollars storm troop higher across the globe. The euro has been CRACKED ASUNDER — at the 105 level, off by another 0.7%. The obvious victim in all of this, aside from SPY earnings estimates which will soon be getting slashed (you read it here first), is the price of gold — now off by nearly 1% to 10 month lows.

Isn’t it amazing how this once proud and richly rewarded commodity is now the bane of existence? Year to date, gold miners are still higher by 84%, on a median basis. However, over the past 3 months, they’re lower by 20.6%.

Over the same time frame, bonds have been eliminated from the game of play — with shares of $TLT off by an astounding 12.9%. All of its gains have been revoked for 2016. Easy come, easy go.

The carnage isn’t isolated to just government bonds. Both $PCK and $MNE (Cali and NY munis) are lower by 12% over the past 3 months.

On the plus side is copper, steel, banks and airlines, all higher by 30% over the past 3 months. It’s very important to take notice that the market is rewarding value stocks, via the reflation trade, and not traditionally labeled growth, a la tech.

Both the high growth drug and tech sectors are flat. FANG stocks are slightly lower over the past month — completely missing out on the big Trump trade. The fact that we’re seeing value or beaten down sectors outperform is indicative of a profound character change in the markets.

]]>http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2016/12/09/runaway-dollars-send-gold-plunging-to-10-month-lows-value-stocks-continue-to-outperform-growth/feed/9The Morning Shills Discuss Hillary’s Fake News Presser and the DEATH OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTYhttp://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2016/12/09/the-morning-shills-discuss-hillarys-fake-news-presser-and-the-death-of-the-democratic-party/
http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2016/12/09/the-morning-shills-discuss-hillarys-fake-news-presser-and-the-death-of-the-democratic-party/#commentsFri, 09 Dec 2016 17:23:08 +0000http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/?p=61710Yesterday, Hillary Clinton crawled out from her crypt to decry the dangers of ‘fake news.’ She even went as far …

]]>Yesterday, Hillary Clinton crawled out from her crypt to decry the dangers of ‘fake news.’ She even went as far to say that fake news was killing people and that government needed to do something to protect ‘innocent lives.’

What in the actual fuck?

This is why democrats have lost over 900 legislative seats over the past 6 years and hold just 11 governorships. They’re fucking INSANE.

The Morning Shills discuss the scourge of fake news, segueing into the apocalyptic demise and death of the democratic party.

If the democrats want to make a comeback, they need to pull a Costanza and do the exact opposite of what Hillary Clinton suggested for the American people — including dropping the race bait issues, sycophantic support of the welfare state, and quit trying to control every aspect of American’s lives.

]]>http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2016/12/09/the-morning-shills-discuss-hillarys-fake-news-presser-and-the-death-of-the-democratic-party/feed/9A New Bubble Emerges: Dollar Index Approaches 14 Year Highshttp://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2016/12/09/a-new-bubble-emerges-dollar-index-approaches-14-year-highs/
http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2016/12/09/a-new-bubble-emerges-dollar-index-approaches-14-year-highs/#commentsFri, 09 Dec 2016 16:07:24 +0000http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/?p=61704Over the past 3 years, the dollar is higher vs a basket of major currencies by 21%. According to Factset, …

]]>Over the past 3 years, the dollar is higher vs a basket of major currencies by 21%. According to Factset, about 50% of sales are earned abroad by companies in the S&P 500, compared to just 20% in the Russell. Back in 2015, when the dollar rose by 7% from January through March, the strong dollar wreaked havoc on American multinationals — dinging earnings by about 11%.

Lo and behold, the dollar index is higher by more than 6% since October and markets are celebrating as if the second coming of the dot com bubble had just been announced.

As of right now, the dollar is higher by 0.75% v the euro, +0.21% v the yuan, +1% v the yen and the dollar index is ripping higher by 0.6%. At some point, American multinationals will fess up to the fact that a bubbling higher dollar is scornful for their prospects. Earnings revisions will be made, taking into account the sudden jolt in fx markets and the SPY will reflect that reality.

Until then, however, it doesn’t appear Wall Street is in the least bit interested in disrupting their spiked egg nog induced euphoric feeling, as markets wistfully drift higher on the specter of hope.

]]>In case you haven’t noticed, The Option Addict has crushed the market this year. On Monday, he will begin a 5 day Boot Camp with one goal in mind: to help you become a better trader.

Jeff puts a ton of effort into these things and anyone who’s ever attended our live conferences, either in Las Vegas or NYC, knows he brings his A game. He’s an incredible teacher.

In light of what just transpired in the market, considering that Jeff was one of the few public figures to call it right all year, invest a little into your trade and attend the final online bootcamp of 2016.

]]>http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2016/12/09/last-chance-sign-up-for-ibankcoins-4th-quarter-bootcamp/feed/5Italian Banks Swoon Lower After the ECB Rejects Monte Paschi’s Request for More Timehttp://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2016/12/09/italian-banks-swoon-lower-after-the-ecb-rejects-monte-paschis-request-for-more-time/
http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2016/12/09/italian-banks-swoon-lower-after-the-ecb-rejects-monte-paschis-request-for-more-time/#commentsFri, 09 Dec 2016 13:31:01 +0000http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/?p=61700Monte Paschi is halted and limit down in Italy after the ECB rejected their request for more time to raise …

]]>Monte Paschi is halted and limit down in Italy after the ECB rejected their request for more time to raise capital, which is leading others to believe the Italian government will have to bail them out.

Italy’s third largest lender had requested an additional 3 weeks to wrap up a $5.3b capital raise. But the ECB told them to fuck off.

Italy can’t afford to let the bank fail, especially since the rest of their banking system is in shambles as well. Look for a bailout soon.

Other banks in Italy are trading down hard in sympathy.

Banco Popolare -4.3%

Monte Paschi -7.2%

Mediobanca -4.1%

Unicredit -5.8%

The FTSE MIB is lower by 1.2%, which isn’t too bad considering their entire banking system is one bailout closer to complete collapse.

]]>Last night I was accused of publishing fake news, after sourcing Bloomberg saying Macau had implemented a 50% cut in UnionPay card limits. I wasn’t alone, being that billions in market cap were shed from $WYNN, $MPEL and $LVS.

Lo and behold, the internet proved to be right. No idea who that random Chinese guy on Twitter was, but he was right. I think.

According to a Chinese website, Macau authorities are denying the limit changes, saying lads can still take $1,450 out — but limited to just $626 per transaction. That’s probably where the confusion started, with people jumping to conclusions, not knowing the details.

My position on China’s looming FX problems are unchanged. However, this news should be enough to provide a bounce in battered casino shares.

]]>http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2016/12/09/macau-claims-daily-atm-withdrawal-limits-unchanged/feed/5China’s Restrictions on Macau is Yet Another Example of a Looming FX Crisis in the Makinghttp://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2016/12/08/chinas-restrictions-on-macau-is-yet-another-example-of-a-looming-fx-crisis-in-the-making/
http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2016/12/08/chinas-restrictions-on-macau-is-yet-another-example-of-a-looming-fx-crisis-in-the-making/#commentsFri, 09 Dec 2016 02:44:20 +0000http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/?p=61681Over the past year, China has shed about a trillion from their FX reserves. Part of the loss is due …

]]>Over the past year, China has shed about a trillion from their FX reserves. Part of the loss is due to a slowing economy and weakening global backdrop. But the majority of the losses stems from trying to defend their currency against a precipitous drop — thanks to what many call a ‘capital flight.’

In other words, people are trying to get their money out of China and the government is doing their best to prevent it.

The evidence is laid bare in the FX reserves data — coupled with the fact that CNY is dropping on a daily basis — currently at financial crisis lows.

USDCNY

Earlier today, the Macau authorities announced yet another crackdown on the casinos there — lowering the amount of money gamblers can withdraw from ‘UnionPay’ cards to just $626 per day — or half the previous amount. It is widely believed that people were smuggling money out of China using this method.

As a result, casino stocks cratered lower — as the Chinese government, again, exhibited wanton disregard for any casino operators on the island. This has truly been a hell pit for companies like WYNN and MPEL. Nevertheless, they’re stuck there with multi-billion dollar investments.

“Assuming it’s true, we cautiously view the news as arguably ‘sending a message’ to safeguard against potential capital outflow abuses, amidst the continued decline in China’s foreign exchange reserves,” DS Kim, an analyst at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in Hong Kong, wrote in a note. “We note that this would be the first capital control measure that directly targets Macau, hence may be viewed as a meaningful signal.”

“Nearly 50 percent of Chinese customers in Macau use UnionPay ATM withdrawals as one source of cash for gaming,” Umansky wrote, citing the brokerage’s survey. Other methods include bringing cash into Macau, withdrawing cash from Hong Kong and Macau bank accounts, and through pawnshops, he wrote.

]]>http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2016/12/08/chinas-restrictions-on-macau-is-yet-another-example-of-a-looming-fx-crisis-in-the-making/feed/4Tucker Carlson Loses His Cool in Debate with Congressman Over Russian Hacking Allegationshttp://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2016/12/08/tucker-carlson-loses-his-cool-in-debate-with-congressman-over-russian-hacking-allegations/
http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2016/12/08/tucker-carlson-loses-his-cool-in-debate-with-congressman-over-russian-hacking-allegations/#commentsThu, 08 Dec 2016 22:05:04 +0000http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/?p=61675I wouldn’t say Tuck lost this debate. However, I will admit that he lost his cool, after the congressman accused …

]]>I wouldn’t say Tuck lost this debate. However, I will admit that he lost his cool, after the congressman accused him of ‘carrying water for Putin’, saying that Tuck should move his show over to RT.

The whole gist of Rep. Adam Schiff’s argument was that Putin ordered the hacking of the DNC and Podesta’s emails, which swayed the election towards Trump. Tucker argued that neither he nor our intelligence services had actual proof that the Russians did it and it was all speculation — that the onus of the blame should be on Obama’s weak cyber-security infrastructure.

]]>http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2016/12/08/tucker-carlson-loses-his-cool-in-debate-with-congressman-over-russian-hacking-allegations/feed/16Paranoia Alert: The Trump Trap Has Been Laidhttp://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2016/12/08/paranoia-alert-the-trump-trap-has-been-laid/
http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2016/12/08/paranoia-alert-the-trump-trap-has-been-laid/#commentsThu, 08 Dec 2016 21:14:34 +0000http://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/?p=61671There isn’t anything wrong with a little paranoia — especially when someone is actually out to get you. For the …

]]>There isn’t anything wrong with a little paranoia — especially when someone is actually out to get you. For the past year, we’ve heard nothing but horrible things about Trump, how he was ‘literally Hitler’, an orange pussy grabbing megalomaniac who’d usher in a black age of nuclear fallout and wanton dictatorship. Assholes like Mark Cuban warned of imminent market crashes upon the miracle of him getting elected.

Guess what? Trump won and markets have risen to record highs. The dollar index is at 14 yr highs, and sovereign yields have soared — effectively raising the borrowing costs for an American economy bedraggled by $20t in government debt.

The whole premise of Trump’s candidacy was to expand the middle class by creating shovel ready jobs and punching U.S. multi-nationals in the face until they reopened their factories here.

Pardon me if I view this entire rally with some skepticism, but I was paying attention to the rhetoric coming out of Wall Street and the globalist elite regarding Trump for the past year. They do not like him, and vice versa.

Understand something, this ‘Trump Rally’ that is being celebrated will go down in the history books as Obama’s. After all, the stats will register under his term and future generations will revere him for being the single best President the stock market ever had. His advantage was that Bush fucking destroyed the damned thing into 10,000 pieces before he got it, so all he had to do was golf all day, order some drone strikes, and watch his bailouts reflate America back to its former glory.

The market is being jacked up to bubble levels before Trump gets in, making it harder for him to finance fiscal stimulus — because yields are blowing out. Am I the only one in the world seeing this? What in the fuck is going on?

There’s also a 100% chance that the strong dollar will wreak havoc on American exporters. Remember that shit, fucked face? Strong dollars aren’t good for exporters, economics 101. By my vantage point, there’s a better than average chance the rug will be pulled after his inauguration — effectively tying his hands and keeping him busy trying to plug holes — placing his anti-globalist plans on hold, indefinitely.

Now is that an irrational forecast?

If what I am saying comes to pass, then you’re now having a final cocktail on the SS Titanic — peering over the side of the vessel — enjoying the wonders of the view and all of its possibilities.