HONG
KONG: Indonesia’s
democratic political process is maturing faster than seemed possible five
months, let alone five years ago. There are plenty of bumps ahead and
there is no certainty that the political process will lead to more
effective, less corrupt governance. But, credit where it is due. The recent parliamentary election was remarkably
trouble-free for such a diverse and populous country with a poor
reputation for administrative efficiency. It augurs well for the two
rounds of the presidential election in July and September. Participation was a high 80 percent, a reflection of a
popular desire to participate even if voters have quickly learned to take
a cynical view of politicians’ promises. They also proved capable of
coping with a complex electoral system that provides an opportunity to
vote for individuals and/or parties. The
result suggests voters are rather more capable of judging performance than
they had been given credit for. They handed a deservedly resounding defeat
to President Megawati Sukarnoputri’s party, PDI-P, whose share of the vote
fell from 34 percent to 19 percent. But contrary to many pundits’
predictions, there were few votes for Suharto nostalgia. Golkar, the party
of the Suharto-era elite, gained nothing. Despite good organization,
plenty of money and the unpopularity of Megawati, Golkar’s share of the
vote was 21 percent, against 22 percent in 1999. It remains especially
weak on Java, home to 60 percent of the population. Nor was there any shift from secular to Muslim parties.
The faith-based parties were static at around one third of the total vote.
The beneficiaries of swings within the secular and Muslim categories
showed a desire for better government. One was the Democrat party, the
vehicle of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, a former general and, until recently
Coordinating Minister for Political and Security Affairs, a man with a
clean, competent reputation. The other, the Justice party, espouses
Shariah law but bases its appeal more on its anticorruption credentials
and grass-roots organization. Both
these parties polled exceptionally well in Jakarta, a sign that there is
still momentum for change and reform in Indonesia. Distaste for Megawati’s
instinct to sit on her throne and do little does not translate into desire
for reversion to the past. The
parliamentary election has already had its impact on the presidential
election, the first round of which is in July. One of Golkar’s more
respected figures, Jusuf Kalla, has jumped ship to become Susilo’s
presidential running mate. He is quite a catch, given his Muslim
credentials, and he adds a non-Java element to the ticket. Meanwhile Golkar has, to the surprise of many, chosen
Wiranto, former armed forces chief under Suharto, as its candidate. Given
that Wiranto has been accused of war crimes in East Timor, that scarcely
counts as progress. But at least Golkar conducted an election among its
members, an improvement on the kretek-filled-room politics of the past.
Wiranto has a high profile and
his Timor role will not count against him locally, but the extent of his
national popularity is in doubt. Golkar’s organization might be enough to
get him to second place in July and thus the run-off in September. Much
will depend on what alliances are now forged by Megawati, Wiranto and
Susilo — all from secular parties — with the three main Muslim parties and
which of those will field its own candidates in the first round. There is
particular focus on the machinations of former President Abdurrahman
Wahid, whose party, PKIB, is the largest and most flexible of the Muslim
parties. A further complication is the
future of the Islamic intellectual, parliamentary speaker and past
presidential king-maker Amien Rais. Once associated with a strongly Muslim
agenda, his now nominally secular PAN party scored poorly in the election
but he has a high personal profile and ambitions to unite the Muslim
parties behind him. As of
now, Susilo seems to be the frontrunner, but because of the complexity of
the political set-up, none of the others can be written off. This is
Indonesia’s first direct election of a president and will test how far
voters follow the party line or the individual. Will the magic of the name
Sukarnoputri make up for the failings of Megawati and her PDI-P party? Can
Susilo’s personal reputation trump Wiranto’s party machine? It is all rather messy. But Indonesians do understand
the role that democracy — at regional as well as national level — can play
in keeping their diverse country united and tolerant and in providing some
accountability in a system where corruption is endemic.