News, ideas, thoughts, game breakdowns, in-depth statistics, and a whole lot of passion about the New England Patriots from a 20+ year season ticket holder. (Note: even this blog is done in official Patriots colors!)

Monday, October 17, 2011

The Dallas Cowboys seem determined not to be a factor in the AFC East race. They blew late leads to both the Patriots and Jets, as if they didn't want anyone mad at them for picking favorites. Perhaps they'll complete the superfecta and throw away games to the Bills and Dolphins in November... after all, it would only be fair at this point.

The Patriots proved they are four points less sucky than the Cowboys, hanging on for a 20-16 victory. The win catapulted 5-1 New England into first place in the AFC East all by their lonesome, as the Buffalo Bills felll to 4-2. The Jets and Dolphins play on Monday Night, with a loss by the Jets being most desirable, since it would put them three full games behind the Patriots in the division. Also, the Patriots lead the entire AFC in winning percentage, and trail only undefeated Green Bay in the NFL.

Yesterday's contest was sloppy, sloppy, sloppy, and that dulled the excitement you'd usually have in a game this close. The Cowboys came out of their bye week with an interception and a fumble in the first quarter. Not to be outdone, the Patriots went into their bye week the same way, with another tipped-ball INT by Tom Brady and a Matthew Slater fumble on a kickoff return (both in the first quarter). All told there were 6 turnovers, 5 sacks, 15 accepted penalties and 5 declined ones, maybe 12-15 dropped passes, and about 100 missed tackles. Looks like both coaches have a lot to work on this week.

The defense remains a puzzle for at least one more week. It is difficult to tell if they are doing better or if the one-dimensional Jets and self-inflicted-wound Cowboys made them look better. Dallas only got 3.2 yards a rush for the game, an excellent number for the defense. But the quick-misdirection runs gave them fits in the second half. The Patriots also held the Cowboys to 33% on third down and in the red zone, and those numbers are encouraging. However, there are still gaping holes in their zone coverage, as evidenced by the 7 passes of 15-yards or more. And when the Patriots blitzed to get more pressure, it had very bad results. But on the other hand, they got another goal-line defensive stop to hold the Cowboys to a field goal in the fourth quarter, and then got a three-and-out when they had to get the ball back for the offense to win the game.

The defensive line provided a bit more pass rush on its own yesterday, led by Andre Carter (2 sacks, 2 QB hits, 5 tackles). 2011 Stalwarts Vince Wilfork (2 tackles, 1 forced fumble, 1 pass defended) and Kyle Love continue to do the heavy lifting inside, although Albert Haynesworth played more and better, with a hit on Romo that caused an important incompletion late in the game. And Gerard Warren came off the street to recover a fumble and get a few tackles. With Mike Wright out for the season, they need contributions from both Haynesworth and Warren, as well as Shaun Ellis, who has been hot-and-cold so far.

At linebacker, Gary Guyton starred on the stat sheet, with ten total tackles. However, my eyes tell me that recent whipping boy Brandon Spikes stepped it up, blowing up plays in the backfield and notching eight tackles of his own. Granted, they joined the team in missing their share of tackles. But between the two of them, they held down the medium zones in pass coverage so at least not much got behind them. However, they were also the pair most victimized by the mis-direction runs. No question the team misses Jerod Mayo, who is a tackling machine and brought both smarts and attitude to the field. No timetable yet on his return; but he will almost certainly be back this year.

The secondary looked awful in the medium-to-deep zone, doing the classic tackle-after-the-catch thing. Devin McCourty and Leigh Bodden do not excel in zone coverage, and the team should play more press/man to take advantage of their skills. Patrick Chung was all over the field, making ten tackles in run and pass support, and Kyle Arrington wasn't far behind (nine tackles, and an interception). James Ihedigbo is making a case as the second greatest safety to play for the UMass Minutemen (check's in the mail, right JD?) -- though more seriously he seems to understand the defense pretty well and has improved each game.

Dallas' defensive game plan clearly centered on stopping receivers Wes Welker and Rob Gronkowski, and it only sort of worked. Welker had 6 catches for 45 yards and 1 touchdown, Gronkowski caught everything thrown his way -- 7 catches on 7 attempts, for 74 yards. But that left Aaron Hernandez open for 14 targets, of which he caught 8 passes for 68 yards and the game-winning touchdown. However, Hernandez also had a crucial fumble, and should have caught at least two more of those passes. He's still coming back from surgery, and he will improve in the coming weeks.

Quarterback Tom Brady didn't exactly light the world on fire with his 27 of 41 passing for 289 yards, 2 touchdowns and (most telling on the day) two interceptions, the second of which was just a terrible decision on his part. Not great numbers, and there are some disturbing signs around the quarterback: his second interception should have been thrown away instead, he has too many tipped-ball interceptions this season, and he completed passes to only six different receivers on Sunday. He once prided himself on throwing the ball away instead of risking turnovers, and he regularly completed passes to ten (or more) different receivers a week. Brady has the bye week to correct these bad habits, and he needs to do so if the Patriots expect to make the playoffs and make any noise once they are there.

One factor in Brady's mediocre play was the same level of play from the offensive line. They are getting better at run blocking, but they should remember that protecting the quarterback is more important to their long-term prospects than getting four yards a carry on the ground. They seemed confused by some of Dallas' stunts and games up front. And even though Dallas has some excellent defensive linemen, Brady was hit eight times and sacked thrice -- probably too much for his long-term health.

The running game was productive if not as dominating as it was the last two weeks. BenJarvus Green-Ellis continues to shoulder the load... shouldering it right into defenders and driving them backwards most of the time, to the tune of 58 yards and a 4.1 yard average. Oh, and if you think Danny Woodhead hasn't been doing much in the running game, you are right. Four weeks ago, he carried 6 times for 21 yards; since then he has just 6 rushes for 21 yards in three games. Although he did have a nice catch-and-run in the passing game this week.

Part of the unevenness of the run could be attributed to excellent play-calling by Dallas defensive coordinator Rob Ryan. But part of it was also bad play-calling by Patriots offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien (or perhaps Brady in the two-minute offense). Too often the Patriots followed decent gains with losses that turned second-and-short into third-and-long.

Once it was third-and-long, the drive was often over, as Ryan would dial up an effective blitz and end the play early. O'Brien needs to keep an eye on when to call run, pass, or screen pass -- he has done well against most teams, but in the playoffs the defensive play-calling will put him to the test, just as it has the past two years (tests he has failed both times).

The least special special teams play was Matt Slater's fumble in the first quarter. It didn't cost them any points, as the Cowboys kindly fumbled it back five plays later. But Slater, a beast in kickoff coverage, should know that special teams fumbles are especially devastating, as they often come after the other team scores. It was no surprise that Stevan Ridley replaced Slater in kick returns for the rest of the game.

So where does that leave us? At 5-1 and with a bye week, the Patriots have plenty of work to do. They need to distribute the ball more in the passing game, integrate Stevan Ridley in the running game, cure Tom Brady of his interception bug, get the pass rush on track, get Jerod Mayo healthy, and convert secondary to play press coverage instead of zone. Sounds like a busy week.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: Nine words I never thought I would write -- Kyle Arrington leads the entire league with four interceptions.

Trivia Question: Only one NFL team has scored more points than they've allowed this season and still sports a losing record -- name the team (answer below).