Thursday, December 08, 2005

Turning 40 - Part 2

SES proves more baffling by the day. The Liberals now have a stunning 40-26 lead in the SES poll. They're up by 20 in Ontario, and the two parties are neck and neck in Western Canada. What's more surprising is that the daily Gregg poll in the Globe has the two parties within 5 or 6 points of each other.

I stand by what I wrote yesterday, but I suspect this is going to cause a lot of frustration for a lot of people in the Conservative camp.

It may not be as surprising as all that, or even, as you say, all that bad news for the Cons... yet.

First, the Liberal numbers have increased because the Conservatives have taken the focus off of corruption with their policy-a-day approach. Generally, the economy is doing very well and Canadians are generally happy. Normally, this would lead to a lot of support to whatever party is governing in whatever jurisdiction. Corruption charges, despite the Prime Minister's complete exoneration, cut into that. Without the daily rant about Adscam, Canadians have slid back into the normal patterns. That will change when it gets negative after Christmas. What will be interesting is if the Cons can revive this issue for a fourth time (1. after the auditor general's report there was a spike, 2. after Brault testimony there was a spike, and 3. after the Gomery report there was a spike), or at least revive it sufficiently to get people angry enough again.

2. The Conservative policy-a-day approach is what they needed to do (and what they should have done in 2004) and it is smart, but a side effect (related to the first point) is that people are talking about policy. A lot of the anger diffuses: even if you prefer Harper's GST and small business corporate tax cuts over Martin's income tax cuts, is that something you get angry about? Ambrose's children tax cut vs. Dryden's childcare funding: we can differ on policies but it's not something Canadians are going to get angry at the Liberals about. Moreover, the same people who might have been angry over corruption, when you start talking about policy, they start realizing that there really is a choice, a difference between the Prime Minister and Harper.

3. The media polls, unlike the SES poll, don't count the undecideds usually (I don't think the Strategic Counsel one does) and the SES poll shows the undecideds growing (in Quebec by 5%).

4. And this is the biggie in my view: Quebec. Look at the SES numbers out of Quebec over the last week or so: Bloc is down by a huge amount and the Liberals up by the exact same amount, hardly any of it to the Conservatives. The Liberal strategy of focusing on unity took everyone by surprise including the Conservatives - who's only real response was slow and came from a provincial premier (which included no alternative, just a nice catch-phrase critique) - and the Bloc who started the campaign off with arrogance (too bad about Lapierre's comment or the Libs would be even higher). This is a very very risky campaign focus, but it could end up being brilliant from an election strategy point of view: in Quebec where corruption is a hotter topic than elsewhere, everyone's eyes are now on unity. Pissed off federalists realize that the next federal government could be the federal government that has to face off against another referendum if the PQ win. Corruption vs. separatism? And because the Libs have caught the Cons off-guard on the issue, they don't have a prepared response yet. The Quebec federalists might be doubly concerned about voting Conservative: worried about splitting the vote and worried about what the Conservative position is. What will be interesting to see is the Bloc response to the numbers, especially after what we read today about some infighting about how much focus is to be given to separatism and how much leeway the party can give to its candidates on the issue.

I'm not taking a partisan position here, just my view of why the numbers are coming out the way they do. And if I'm right it presents both parties with opportunities and it means this race is far far from over. Especially when you factor in the growing undecideds, the very high margin of error for SES (especially in the Atlantic) and just how strong/deep the Liberal support is.

Maybe it's the Tories' high-school-health-class commercials.Or maybe it's re-opening the same-sex can of worms.And economists did completely blast the GST proposal, and I think people pay attention when non-politicans do that to party policies.Unity has been big, like cerberus mentions -- and unity always boosts the Lib standings. Hell, the CBC even had Justin Trudeau on last night (in the excellent "Road Stories" segment wherein they flew a Vancouverite to Quebec.) Framing the debate as Lib vs Bloc was already a plus for the Liberals, and everyone loves Justin.

Sorry, can't hear you goin' on about this "poll" nonsense that has been thoroughly debunked ad infinitum, too busy basking in the byzantine brilliance of the out of North Bay:Conservative initiatives for the trades include:

*A Tools Tax Deduction for up to $500 spent on tools;*A $1,000 Apprenticeship Incentive Grant for two years for apprentices in approved programs; and*An Apprenticeship Job Creation Tax Credit of 10 per cent of an apprenticeship's wages for two years to a maximum of $2,000.

Conservative initiatives for education include:

*A tax credit for students or their parents of up to $500 to help cover the costs of textbooks;*Cooperation with the provinces to increase family income thresholds for student loan eligibility; and*Exemption of the first $10,000 of student scholarship or bursary income from taxation.

"We will focus assistance directly on students and their parents,"Harper concluded.

Jolly good show, Stephen “Mr. Incrementalism” Harper! It is a great day to be a Conservative!

The SES numbers aren't that surprising and generally match with other polling (allowing for the margin of errors involved).

It also isn't that surprising given the Connie campaign. For example, if your leader is perceived as an untrustworthy dud, why would you build your campaign around him? Harper's negatives are worth all the drag on the Connie campaign that it would take to sink them.

Look at the messaginbg. look at the ads. Look at the polls. it all makes perfect sense.

Some aspects of this poll make sense... the increase in CPC support in Atlantic Canada given the fisheries policy announced yesterday for one. Other aspects, like the huge CPC drop in Western Canada... it will remain to be seen if this is a trend, or an anomoly.

40% would suggest a real possibility of a Liberal Majority... not a big one, but a real one. I may be a bit biased, but I don't see a lot of pull for that right now, and I would expect to see some of the soft Liberal support drop off to the NDP as voters caught between the two go NDP to avoid a Liberal majority. The possibility also exists that the NDP get the message out against strategic voting for the Liberals, wanting the $1.75/vote/year funding that they could lose.

Honestly, I'm not going to make up my mind based on T.V. ads, but the ads the Tories are running here in Ontario are TERRIBLE.

I don't even care if they're saying "A Tory government would give Lord Kitchener's Own a million dollars a day for the rest of his life" I don't know how I could vote for a party that can produce such God awful ads.

I swear the Tories lose a dozen votes everytime one of those awful things appears on an Ontario television.

These numbers are a virtual match with the much-larger, much more accurate Leger poll that was released today. Libs: 39, Cons: 27, Dips: 16, Bloq: 12.In other words, the SES polls are the real deal.If this trend continues, things are going to get really ugly really fast for the conjobbers.

Early lead. Long election. Libs haven't even started trying yet. No one's gone negative yet.

The lead is a nice surprise for the Liberals, but this does not mean much. In fact, this early in the game it might work against us Liberals. The Conservatives wanted to look like unthreatening underdogs throughout the campaign, up until the end. If they look like serious contenders too early, they are done. If it looks like the Liberals are set for a majority or solid minority until late in the game, it's a lot easier for progressive Conservatives to vote Conservative, for Dippers to stay the course without strategic voting and for angry federalists in Quebec to feel comfortable with a Bloc protest vote.

Seriously, if after 12 years of Liberal rule, more scandals, lies and corruption than you'd find in a mexican whorehouse, Canadians are still willing to vote Liberal then there's not a lot to be done. One party rule has its benefits, especially if you take out a Liberal membership (which I might hedge my bets by doing). For what it's worth I think the Cons need to get in the dirt and mix it up. Forget all that 'policy' horseshit that the media has been bleating about, and 'Harps is an angry man' crap. Get angry, get mean, and take a page out of the Liberal handbook on how to get elected - LIE!

Maybe with all the pollsteres crawling across Canada (what are there 5 now?) people are just giving false answers. there is a HUGE undecided in the SES poll (235/1200).... thats a huge skew. almost 20%.

I agree with CalGrit. Harper is doing what he needs to do... set out policy so when Martin tries to go neg Harper can shoult back "Hey, is a 2% cut in GST scary? Is helping out our Canadian fisherman scary? Is standing up for tradespeople scary? No, your dithering and pandering to the causes of the moment is scary, Mr. Martin."

A new poll has found Paul Martin's Liberals losing ground in Ontario, with a big dropoff in the populous Toronto area.

According to the latest poll conducted by The Strategic Counsel for CTV and The Globe and Mail, 42 per cent of decided voters asked earlier this week who they'd vote for gave the Grits the nod.

That's down from 45 per cent when they last went to the polls in 2004.

Though still trailing the Liberals, Stephen Harper's Conservatives are up four percentage points from their 2004 election result -- to 36 per cent of decided Ontario voters.

The NDP are at 17 per cent (down from 18 per cent in 2004) and the Green Party are up one percentage point to five per cent support.

When the numbers are broken down by region, it's clear where the Liberals are being hardest-hit.

In the downtown Toronto area encompassed by the 416 area code, the vote would break down as follows (change from 2004 election result in brackets):

Liberal: 51 per cent (-5) Conservative: 17 per cent (-3) NDP: 24 per cent (+4) Green: 8 (+4)When voters in the suburban 905 area code that bounds Toronto were asked the same question, they said (change from 2004 election result in brackets):

When asked how they'd vote if an election were held right away, voters across the province said (change from 2004 election result in brackets):

Liberals: 38 per cent (-2) Conservatives: 38 per cent (+3) NDP: 18 per cent (-2) Green: 6 per cent (+1)In Southwestern Ontario, the Liberals aren't losing support, but the effect is nevertheless approximated by the Conservatives there gained support. On the question of who they'd vote in an election held today, voters in the region said (change from 2004 election result in brackets):

Results are based on nightly tracking, between Dec. 5 and Dec. 7, among a proportionate sample of 569 Ontarians 18 years of age or older. Results are considered accurate within +/- 4.1 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

Where necessary to report on sufficient sample sizes, findings have been rolled up and analyzed over an ed day period beginning Nov. 29.

In those cases, the sample size (with the margin of error in brackets) is:

I'm not a bit surprised by this poll. I think Canadians are finally waking up and realizing that the Liberals are not so bad after all. I think the opposition made a huge mistake by taking down the government the way they did, especially after Martin already said he would call an election after the Gomery report. I think a Liberal majority is a very good possibility and it will be what's best for Canada.

How about sitting around all year opposing tougher gun crime sentences and then on the eve on an election changing your tune.

You know what that says, it says all the Libs care about is getting elected. They know the country is fearful of gun crimes, but rather than substantively doing something about it while they govern, they leverage that fear for vote getting during an election.

Your fears aren't for them to alleviate as a responsible government, they're there for them to foment and leverage for votes.