Archive for July, 2011

I hear the folks down in the Owens valley are really enjoying the comfort of the below normal temperatures this Summer. With another day of mid to upper 80s today it should be delightful! Expect slightly warmer temps on Saturday. The high country is a different story….comments like where is our Summer? are more common then not. We welcome warmer then normal temps after a long chilly winter. Temps in Mammoth have been in the upper 60s with highs again today Friday expected in the mid to upper 60s. Lows in some areas in the 30s. There were a few showers that developed near the Yosemite area yesterday afternoon. This was due in part to the upper jet forcing lift over the area. Another day like that today will give the area a slight chance of some thunder in some isolated areas. It is unlikely that Mammoth will experience rainfall.

Some temperature records were broken in the southern San Joaquin Valley yesterday. Bakersfield at 88 degrees broke a high-low maxim temperature of 90 set back in 1966. This had been the coolest high Max Min For July.

The weather pattern for the next week will be highlighted by the struggle of the Eastern Pacific Trof and the upper ridge over the mid section of the country. The stationary upper level trof extends SSW from Alberta Canada to off the Southern Ca coast. A strong upper high over the Oklahoma will become Monsterious the early next week and will build northward in the coming days. Our upper trof off shore continues to feed in cool dry air through Mammoth Pass and favor stronger zephyr winds. With little movement expected the next couple of days little change is expected in our weather.

The next change in the pattern happens as the upper high over the central CONUS strengthens Sunday and expands westward into next week. The big question today is will this ridge be strong enough to dislodge the west coast trof and to provide a warm up for the far west into next week. At the moment the forecast is taking that into consideration and providing up to 10 degrees of warming early next week for the Eastern Sierra. High temps are expected to be back into the mid to upper 70s Monday through Wednesday. It should be noted that the global circulation is still in La Nina mode and with a negative PDO and all the anomalously cold water over the Eastern pacific reinforcing the current trof, there is some question on high heights will get over the far west and thus how warm it will get.

Long Range:

The long range week 2 still teases us with a return of the 4 corners upper high by month end and some monsoon moisture returning. The Dweebs have doubts about this and will play a wait and see. Again, La Nina at the moment may not be in the cards SSTA wise in the Nina 3.4 region, however the subsurface SSTA pool that warmed during the spring is now cooling and it probably will not be long before La Nina returns, not only in the current Global Circulation but manifested out over the ENSO 1 to 4 areas during the Fall. La Nina will possibly rule the Winter of 2011/2012 again in some fashion!

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………….:-)

————————————————-Reference Glossary of Weather TermsDisclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

Cooling continues here in the high country as HT 500 Heights continue to slowly fall. Winds have been mostly in the 15 to 35 MPH range with stronger gusts in the more wind prone areas. The more dynamic portion of the upper trof will arrive Thursday into Friday as the models provide enough dynamics for a few isolated TSRWs. High temperatures Tuesday into Thursday will be in the 60s in Mammoth. The new model runs are a bit slower to move the upper trof out this weekend now. However, HT 500 heights do recover enough over the weekend for a slow warm up. (Saturday and Sunday low to mid 70s)

The more significant change in the Models now is for next week. It is the configuration of the westward expanding upper ridge and the apparent delay of Monsoon II. The configuration of the upper ridge is critical to whether the PWAT plume can move up into the Central Sierra. The latest 00z and 06z runs seem to portray this upper ridge more egg shaped with an axis of the SSE flow next week south of Mammoth…..turning the corner east…..well south of our area. This is a new twist to the longer range models and upper pattern. It is being caused by a stronger pacific northwest trof and its accompanying southwest upper flow.

So for the time being or based upon thre latest guidence, we will get all the warming without a lot of moisture. Sure isolated TSRW will from next week but the true Monsoon Plume will hold off later next week based upon current model trends.

FYI

Stay tuned on this one as it would not take a big change to flip back again! If you are planning an extended trip to the back country and plan on climbing higher terrain it would be very important to know the extended weather next week. Based upon Climo….the 3rd and 4th week of July is usually a very active time here in the Eastern Sierra for strong thunderstorms……

The Dweeber……………………………..:-)

————————————————-Reference Glossary of Weather TermsDisclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.

New 12z GFS has quite the PWAT plume coming into Southern Ca this Sunday and flooding northward Monday into much of next week. This is so much faster then what it looked like Saturday. This looks like Monsoon II on Steroid’s!

Quick Update Monday Morning…..

No change to this weeks forecast other then to introduce a slight chance of a shower eastern portions Friday. This is associated with the current trof that is descending from the northwest. The cool air may linger now into Friday…….see discussion below:

This is a change to the longer range in retrograding or expending the upper high over the midwest faster with the ECMWF deterministic bringing HT 500 594dm into Eastern Ca Monday a week from today. That would certainly toast us up quicker. However the EC ensemble is not so bullish. The Dweebs point out that both the EC and the GFS are quicker in bringing a return to Monsoon II next week then their earlier runs…… Will keep you all in the loop!………………

The Dweeber……..:-)

Sunday morning 00z and 06z GFS update still showing precipitable water increases the weekend of the 22/23/24th for possible Monsoon part II.

From Saturday AM:

Although Dew Points still fairly high (low 40s)…..PWAT’s now real low over Mono County….Down around .25 to .30…..with increased stability…..the Thunderstorm threat less than 10% now. Expect seasonal temperatures the rest of the weekend with stronger Zephyr winds in the afternoon and evening hours. Highs in Mammoth in the mid to upper 70s today and Sunday with lows in the 40s. The temperature this weekend may be the last of the upper 70s for a week…..

The trofing that has initiated the dryer air mass is expected to deepen next week with lower heights and much cooler temps by mid week. In fact highs will cool well down in the 60s by mid week with stronger Zephyr winds. Nighttime lows will drop into the 30s. The Jazz Fest will begin on a strong breezy note Wednesday but will finish with weekend highs back into the low 70s. The Zephyr will be strong enough for 30 to 40 MPH winds Wednesday afternoon and evening and with the 564DM thickness iso-hyet into the area, Sunrise Thursday morning may be a little frosty on the golf courses. It appears that Thursday will be the coolest day with some moderation in temps back into the low 70s by the weekend.

The two global models suggest that the subtropical continental high will retrograde westward about the 21st for a return more seasonal summer weather. The Dweebs noticed that in the longer range, that PWAT increases again from the SSE the weekend of the 22/23/24th.

Dr Howard and the Dweebs…………………………………….:-)

————————————————-Reference Glossary of Weather TermsDisclaimer: I have been a hobbyist meteorologist for over 30 years here in the Mammoth area and I do this for my personal enjoyment. The National Weather Service saves lives every day . . . I do not. When making important planning decisions please use information provided by the National Weather Service as they are the most knowledgeable and accurate information source available today.