In past times we have had pulses of sea level rise that have seen many metres in a few decades and as we only need one metre for economic and human disaster a lot of research is being done to understand if it could happen again.

n many ways circumstances are very different from those in a previous pulse of sea level rise as we are just past the peak of a warm period. The previous sea level pulses came from the melting of huge land based ice sheets on the North American and Asian continents which have now gone.

​The only remaining big ice sheets left are on Greenland and Antarctica and they can be divided into four different significant regions with very different circumstances and very different potentials for adding to sea level rise.

Antarctica is split into three regions of which by far the largest is East Antarctica with a potential to add about 60 metres to sea levels.East Antarctica is fortunately very high and extremely cold so there is no surface melting and most of the ice sits on rock so there is very little melting from underneath except where ice flows move out over the ocean. There is melting from the underneath of ice shelves around the edges and these ice shelves are massive but as they are already in the sea they do not contribute to sea levels. There is loss of ice but there is also snow falling in greater quantities on the shoulders of the continent and therefore there is only a modest loss of mass balance.

​The Antarctic peninsula is at a warmer latitude and is disintegrating, demonstrated by the ice shelves Larson A and Larson B having suddenly collapsed. The glaciers on the mountains behind these ice shelves have speeded up their progress to the sea, adding to sea level rise. Larson C has recently had a massive calving of 10% of its area and there are more splits in the remaining ice. Once again most of the ice loss is already in the sea and so, at the moment, it is a minor addition to sea level rise. Still all these bits add up and we only need one metre for disaster.

West Antarctica has a whole series of glacier streams of which the Thwaites and Pine Island are the most significant. Global warming has increased the heat differential between the South pole and the tropics and the katabatic winds at the coast are now stronger. As they blow offshore they blow surface water away from the coast and consequently warmer water is sucked up from the deep to replace it.

​This deep water is relatively warm at +2C and is melting the ice shelf from below and this is where it starts to get interesting.

The warm water melts the ice from below and as the ice shelf thins it breaks up, just as Larson’s A, B and C have, and the ice shelf retreats. As it gets closer to the coast the ice is sitting on the sea floor and much thicker and higher than floating ice.Ice is brittle and has a maximum size that it can maintain before it collapses. This would be a cliff face of 90metres above sea level and above that it will collapse.

​This illustration is the classic profile of a glacier and ice shelf.

​When the ice shelf retreats due to warm water melting and break up it will eventually reach this thicker ice, and then it will collapse very quickly because it is unstable. This ice will add to sea levels because some of it is not floating.This process of rapid collapse would quickly get back to land based glacier which, without buttressing support would quickly start slipping into the sea. This scenario could produce a pulse of sea level rise.The illustration leads you from A to F and shows how the warmer melts the ice from below, when the melting gets past a shallow ridge on the sea floor B the warm water reaches deep behind the ice face C and collapses the floating ice shelf. D + E shows how the retreating ice reaches thicker grounded ice. The last illustration F shows the unstable cliff face of the thicker ice and this is the point of rapid collapse.​In summary the Antarctic region is currently has a nett loss of 125 gigatons of ice a year which would raise sea levels by 0.3 mm a year. 3 mm a decade does not sound much, but much of the current melting is of ice that is already in the sea, it is accelerating and when the shelve are gone the glaciers behind them will start to slip and they will add significantly towards the one metre disaster level.

Greenland is relatively accessible from the USA and Europe and so it is well researched. It is suffering a whole host of problems partly because it is closer to the warmer latitudes than Antarctica. By comparison Greenland spans from 60 Deg. to 80 Deg., the North of Scotland is 60 Deg. and the Antarctic Peninsula spans 65 Deg. to 75 Deg.The central plateau of Greenland is 3000 metres high and up until recently it did not melt but since the late 1990’s it has been melting quite frequently. Some of this is due to rising temperatures but it is made worse by dark soot from industry, aeroplanes and forest fires, covering the clean reflective snow, absorbing heat and encouraging melting. Once the snow has melted it is a darker colour and becomes significantly less reflective and more prone to absorbing heat.The warm water melts its way down through the ice and forms holes called moulins which carry the water deep into the bed of the ice sheet. This warm water will unstick the ice from the bedrock so that 3-kilometre-thick ice will lurch suddenly towards the ocean. In some cases, the water makes its way to the sea and adds to sea level but in other cases it sits inside the ice as a reservoir of liquid water and may become part of a later pulse in rapid sea level riseSatellite measurements show that the surface of Greenland is dropping noticeably and the meltwater is adding to sea level rise.Around the coast of Greenland, it is suffering the same problems as West Antarctica with deeper warm water, melting from below the ice tails of the glaciers that sit in the water. As these glaciers melt and break up they no longer buttress ice from further up the valleys, which increases their speed to the sea.

​The four above scenarios illustrate the various threats of a sea level pulse and where the main culprits are. Overall there is no stopping sea level rise but the scientific community is trying to do research on the timing. With over 400 parts per million of CO2 in the atmosphere we are committed to a 20-metre sea level rise. it’s all about the timing.

​The graph below by Tim Naith shows CO2 levels on the left-hand side with sea levels at the top and temperatures at the bottom.The yellow dot represents today. The black dot is the peak of the last warm period with CO2 levels at 300 ppm and sea levels 7 metres higher than today.The first large red cross is 3 million years ago when CO2 levels were at 400 ppm and sea levels were 20 metres higher and it was 3 C warmer.The second red cross is where we are headed with CO2 at 500 ppm, sea levels 40 metres higher and the temperature 5 C higher.This information came from core samples taken from the seabed in Antarctica in the Andrill research project. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oZHRwDHh4B0

«The University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit (CRU) alone received more than $23 million in taxpayer funds for its work on global warming.
...
«They are evidence of pervasive fraud by a massively influential institution that has dominated news coverage of global warming.
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«Having claimed to have collected the most complete data on the Earth's temperature for the last half century, the CRU's summary of that data was used by the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for its 2007 report demanding that we adopt a few modest lifestyle changes, such as abolishing modern technology, reverting to hunter/gatherer societies [?!] and taxing ourselves into oblivion.
...
«But at least the Aztecs only slaughtered tens of thousands of humans in the name of "climate change." The global warming cultists want us all dead [?!].»

So she is saying despite Al Gore giving a warning about global warming in 2006, nothing has happened since then. However, she concedes something might change in "the next seven centuries".

Reply

Bob Bingham

28/4/2018 09:47:39 pm

Hi Dennis. There is a lot of paid for denial over climate change but the evidence is slowly overcoming the deniers. Bob.

Reply

Bob Bingham

2/5/2018 07:50:28 pm

That whole thing with the East Anglian University was done by a guy called Delingpole who worked for the UK Telegraph and now works for Breitbart. it was a massive fraud manufactured by the USA hard right conservatives to protect the oil companies.

Reply

Bob Bristow

27/4/2018 01:24:57 pm

Many thanks Bob, for this interesting article and look at the great ice sheets, with associated sea level rise risks. Abrupt/rapid melt also would disrupt the vital ocean currents, which would destabilize weather patterns as well as introducing abrupt sea level rise, it would certainly be an extremely challenging time. A recent study confirms the AMOC has slowed down significantly over the last few decades.

This article from the Earth Institute explores previous periods of melt in the Greenland ice sheet which challenges the perception of ice sheet stability.

More on the confirmation of the Gulf Stream current slowdown from Potsdam.

“But with global warming, increased rainfall as well as meltwater from the Arctic sea ice and Greenland ice sheet is diluting the waters of the northern Atlantic, reducing the salinity. Less saline water is less dense and hence less heavy – which makes it harder for the water to sink from the surface into the deep,”

Hi Bob. I had not seen that blog on the complete melting of the greenland ice sheet before. new evidence is coming out all the time and unfortunately it is almost always worse than what we new before.
We are getting closer to an ice free Arctic and that will have a huge effect on the UK and the east coast of the USA. It will probably happen within three years and that may bring some urgency to the situation. Bob.

Changing ocean currents speeding ice melting are not as scary to me as the new crater lakes in Siberia from permafrost thaw. Now these things are appearing in Canada too. See:

Increasing of Dissolved Organic Material in Arctic Freshwaters due to Permafrost Thaw
https://plus.google.com/+DennisJanicek/posts/VnwyfJ8si6f

People note the methane emitted from the continental shelf of Siberia from melted hydrolized methane. There has got to be continental shelf are the Canadian Arctic Islands. However the remaining ice is still around these islands,so we have not heard methane from them yet.

These sources of carbon are as large as carbon from burning fossil fuels. So rapid sea level rise due to sudden collapse of ice, I speculate will come after the positive feedback from methane in karst and clathrates starts. After all, it already started, so it is a safe guess. Not even cutting back on fossil fuels will have much impact then.

Then Ann Coulter will notice that climate change is happening.

Reply

Bob Bingham

2/5/2018 07:46:49 pm

I get your point about the Canadian permafrost and I am sure that its much the same as Siberia. The previous Canadian government would not have allowed any research on the subject so we will have to see how it unfolds as new research is done.