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Uncertain Times

By Andrew Kohut September 25, 2008 3:18 pmSeptember 25, 2008 3:18 pm

Andrew Kohut is the president of the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press. (Full biography.)

John McCain’s decision to suspend his campaign and to call for postponing the first debate adds yet more uncertainty to a presidential campaign that is far more difficult to predict than any of the previous six elections in which I have worked.

This is not just my opinion; the most reliable forecasters in the country — the voters themselves — agree with me. In every recent election the public has accurately picked the winner by this time in the cycle — not this year. Two weeks ago when we asked voters to put aside their own preferences and make a prediction, 39 percent said Mr. McCain would win and exactly the same number chose Barack Obama. Four years ago in September, the race was close, but by a 60 percent to 22 percent margin voters thought President Bush would be re-elected.

In 2000 at this time, voters believed Al Gore would win. But they changed their mind by late October and picked George W. Bush. In 1992 and 1996, boxcar majorities (61 percent and 75 percent, respectively) thought Clinton would win.

Why is there so little consensus in this election? For starters, voters are unsure whether John McCain, if elected, would govern differently from President Bush: 44 percent think he would, but an equal number think he wouldn’t. And opinion about this basic question has not changed at all since March.

Second, while the country leans Democratic because of strong discontent with President Bush and the condition of the country, only 47 percent of the electorate thinks that Barack Obama is well qualified to be president. That is what voters most often say troubles them about his candidacy.

Third, although race is not explicitly a campaign issue, it is very much on the minds of voters, especially Democrats. Indeed, 56 percent of Democrats believe that many people will not vote for Mr. Obama because he is black.

Fourth, polls have consistently shown that a sizable number of people (45 percent) think that Mr. Obama may not be tough enough when it comes to foreign policy and national security. But almost as many voters (42 percent), said they worried that John McCain will take America into another war.

Finally, Sarah Palin has only added more uncertainty to the equation. While the Alaska governor has energized the Republican base, many independent voters are of two minds about her. Sixty percent of independents hold a favorable opinion of her, but as many of them say she is not qualified to serve as president, if required, according to last week’s New York Times/CBS News poll.

These and other campaign cross pressures have the electorate in a state of high anxiety. As many as 51 percent in Pew’s early September poll said the word risky applies to Mr. Obama, and almost as many — 46 percent — said the word applied to Mr. McCain. How voters minimize the risk factor in making their choice will decide the election.

Will Mr. McCain’s latest decision be seen as a bold selfless gesture for the sake of the nation or as a calculated political move designed to stall Mr. Obama’s recent resurgence in the polls? Only the uncertain voters can answer that question and for now the uncertainty continues.

This is the way McCain does things when he gets tiffed. He refused going on CNN over an interview with an aide. The thought parading Sarah around with those world leaders would help but that only got more laughs. He is in a PANIC.

Is he walking the halls and putting his ear next to the door to find out what’s going on? He has no part of the committees that are meeting.

The debate must continue. Mississippi has spend 5 million on this with thousands of people there for the event. If McCain isn’t there, who cares?

Everything with Barack Obama and his cohort of media backed supporters is a game. They constantly play games. He doesn’t even know when to stop the game of politics and get serious. From what we have been told, this bailout is pertinent to our way of life. The public can’t even realize how serious that it is because of the constant game of politics played by the press. One would ask why Obama would be in such a hurry to have a debate on Foreign policy. He will get creamed anyway.

With al the problems the counry is having under the watch of the republicans, Obama’s election should have been a shoe in. Racism is being blamed as an excuse for Obama’s lack of experience. And he has not addressed it to make us feel comfortable. Like Carly say, she would not select McCain or Obama to run a company, let alone the powerful US government. And the same would apply to Palin and Biden. racism or not, most Americans do not leive in South Side of Vhicago or any are similar to that, for example Watts in Los Angeles or center city in Detroit. Most of them do not have an experience having a black family as neighbor. While many in the large cities hav worked with black professionals, very few have worked for a black manager. In short, theer are many people who are not comfortable seeing a black male in the White house, and that situation gets aggravated by his lack of experience. His community work was done in South Side Chicago, not in Bethesda, MD or Sterling, MI. And I have not seen any effort from Obama to actively make non-black non-urbanies comfortable with him. There are still 40 days to go and he still has time to connect with these folks. His prowess in Basketball further reemphaisizes his blackness. I may end up voting for him because the only change McCain is bringing to Washington is Changed McCain, a tamed Maverick. And palin is the self-described baracuda who acts like a nice gentle deer.

What do both of the candidates think?? That we haven’t watched both of them basically ignore Washington for the last 2 years in campaigning for the presidency and NOW when the crap has hit the fan, they feign concern???? Give me a break……… Do they think we all have ADD??? This is another example in the CONTINUING saga of the last 20 years whereby Washington, DC has totally lost touch with reality, BOTH Democrat and Republican. Ninety five percent of what they worry about is what five percent of the population worries about, leaving a WHOLE 5 percent of the time to work on what 95 percent of the country wants to see action. WAKE UP!!!!!!!

Barack Obama and the Democrats have everything to gain if the rescue package stalls, the financial system collapses and America goes into depression. “Proof” that America needs a new “messiah” to save it. Be very wary of Barack Obama’s and the Democrat’s opportunistic and politically motivated actions in this time of crisis.

Seems like Obama and McCain’s main problems are the opposite sides of the same coin:

45 percent think that Mr. Obama may not be tough enough when it comes to foreign policy and national security.

42 percent said they worried that John McCain will take America into another war.

Academically speaking, I think getting tougher is easier than trying to dissuade voters you will start a war. A few good ads and a combative, even if losing, performance in the debates could do the trick for Obama. The nature of trying to be less agressive does not lend itself to TV or the limited time to the election. However if the belief McCain will start a war is based upon the belief that he is “McSame”, fighting the Bush bailout might help to sever ties and reduce the fears he will start a war.

In the room today with Bush, Paulson etc. Obama clearly demonstrated his superior understanding of the issues… McCain froze up… declined to take a stand in the face of the revolt of rank-and-file Republicans…

McCain is probably going to bail on all the debates, and cancel the veep debate too, of course. Nothing to gain by them at all.

The whole electoral landscape is tilting drastically in favor of the Democrats. The only think Obama needs to do is to get America to “feel comfortable” with him. What better way than to be mellow, homey, non-threatening and easy-going in a massively-watched TV debate…

The McCain campaign realizes this. They have to deprive Obama of that TV-time oxygen… Try to prolong the sense of “otherness” in the minds of the dim-witted “undecideds” as long as possible…

This unilateral drop everything to go to Washington “game” was McCain’s doing. His calling Bush to get a photo op at a White House meeting was his idea. A meeting where he had nothing to contribute nor even bother to ask questions. He then went on a tour of the news media timed to make the evening news. So much for a campaign time out. The entire thing is a McCain political stunt.

You don’t have to wonder why Obama wants the debate held – as agreed upon and on time. That was worked out some time back.

You can wonder why McCain ran out on it. Why he is grandstanding about the crisis but bringing nothing of contribution to it.

McCain has done all he can to use the economic situation to make himself the center of attention. The problem with that is is is melting like a wax figure under the lights.

The house republicans have scuttled the “deal” so that McCain can appear to be the master politician who puts humpty-dumpty back together. This is how he “puts the country first” — risking a castastrophe in order to put his “leadership” on display. Why “suspend the campaign”? Obviously a feeble attempt to insulate himself from the charge that this all political theater. Are Americans really dumb enough to fall for this?

Republican lawmakers offered a plan calling for Wall Street firms to purchase insurance on mortgage-backed securities and “ADVOCATING TAX CUTS AND RELAXED REGULATIONS”. Treasury officials had previously rejected a plan focusing on insurance in favor of one that purchased troubled assets, Cantor said.

This is the republican’s solution???? ADVOCATING TAX CUTS AND RELAXED REGULATIONS?????!!!!!

This is exactly what Bush did for the last 8 years! Ask for something you know it insanely irresponsible, get everyone upset, then let the democrats trip all over each other while the republicans focus on getting what they really want. What a shell game!

Obama got into their heads and kept his cool, but McMaverick wanted to play with fire, which blew up in his face. Trying to be the International/National hero by playing politics with peoples lifes, houses, finances and future payed of pretty well!! Holding groups hostage with his misplaced ‘presidential’ behavior: no deal –no debate left him to pick up the tab his own Texas/Taxes ‘R Us mentality people . That goes for the ‘suspending’ of the debate as well: The Commission should sue the DEALBREAKER for the costs being made ($5mln..?!). His peeps speak of ‘ no problems of debating on foreign policy’ , this being his forte (a french word meaning ‘strength’). Since his ‘experience’ or ‘perception of the world only extends to POW in Asia, the word ‘forte’ by his book only means:
Fort Knox ‘R(eps) Us.
Here ‘s some straight talk on the economy Dear John: ‘Beggars must not be choosers’. The rules have shifted, you only don’t realize it yet. Keep swinging your magic stick, where the power has fled. Get accustomed to adaptation to new circumstances. The higher the rise the deeper the fall. So Good Luck on your ‘Golden Parachutes Deal’ to comfort the fall!!

What happened to the old McCain – someone I would have considered voting for 2 years ago. Has the ghost of Lee Attwater currupted him to the point of no return.

After all the drama we still don’t know where he stands – at least Obama has some principles to contribute. I’m not really agree that the solution is the right one, but then I’m not privy to the meetings (as McCain and Obama weren’t).

I’m tired of the shoot from your hip mentality of McCain(Bush) and will welcome someone who will try to find out the facts before he opens his mouth.

The only people who are surprised we are having a melt down are those who avoid the facts in favor of sticking to their dogma no matter what the evidence.

The only reason to vote for McCain is that the republicans should have to figure out how their free market/totally unregulated system really works for their constituency who doesn’t make over $250,000.

Obama supporters will vote for him because he’s not Bush. McCain will win because he’s not Obama. A Moderate Democrat would win this election by double-digit margins. An ultra-liberal junior Senator from the political Black Hole that is Chicago will not be viewed as a viable alternative to a country that is not liberal, and never has been. Mondale….Dukakis….Gore….Kerry….Add Obama. Doinmg the same thing over and over, expecting a different result, is the definition of insanity. Clinton was a Moderate, and was the only Democrat President in the last 30-years. Someday Democrats will learn.

The ACORN gift in the bailout is enough reason not to vote for Obama. 20% of $700 million goes to this far left organization that connected many of the low-income people to no income check, no document mortgages– and now the taxpayer is going to pay the mortgage for irresponsible decisions.

Where is the demand to tighten loan qualifications? Nowhere. Barney Frank should be in jail, not in congress.

The transfer of taxpayer wealth to ACORN seems unconstitutional.
Write your reps and ask why a left-wing partisan group that is currently under investigation is getting money from this bailout! Not to mention that Obama used to be an attorney for ACORN…something stinks.

Whatever NYTimes publishes needs to be “taken with a (huge) grain of salt”. In its slow and obvious decay, NYTimes became a predictable media: it feeds its readers mostly left leaning “news” and comments, while promoting a politically correct agenda that does no one proud except the usual PC cohorts. A most depressing sight!

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Weekly pieces by the Op-Ed columnists Charles Blow and Ross Douthat, as well as regular posts from contributing writers like Thomas B. Edsall and Timothy Egan. This is also the place for opinionated political thinkers from all over the United States to make their arguments about everything connected to the 2012 election. Yes, everything: the candidates, the states, the caucuses, the issues, the rules, the controversies, the primaries, the ads, the electorate, the present, the past and even the future.