What to Know About the Pennsylvania Special Election Between Conor Lamb and Rick Saccone

As of the morning after the election, results still indicate that Democrat Conor Lamb has the lead over Republican Rick Saccone. The New York Times was tracking updates on the morning of March 14, and, at publication time, showed Lamb leading with a margin of 641 votes, a fraction of a percentage point. The Times also reported results were not yet available in Westmoreland County, a Republican-leaning part of Pennsylvania’s 18th congressional district. CNN reported that absentee and provisional ballots are still being counted.

In analysis of the results, FiveThirtyEight noted the slight Democratic margin as part of a continuing trend in special elections that have come ahead of the 2018 midterms, and pointed to other special election results where reliably Republican areas have seen Democrats surging since 2016. (The Times and others reported that Trump won Pennsylvania's 18th district by 20 percentage points in the 2016 Presidential election.)

The special election today in Pennsylvania's 18th congressional district is close. It didn’t begin that way; Democrats didn't even attempt to run a candidate in the last two elections there.

Why a special election?

Republican Tim Murphy held the seat for 14 years until he resigned in October 2017. Preceding his departure, the Pittsburgh Post-Gazetterevealed that Murphy, over text messages, had suggested a woman with whom he was having an affair get an abortion. He voted to defund Planned Parenthood and cosponsored several anti-choice bills, according to Vote Smart, and his chief of staff also accused him of “hostile, erratic, unstable, angry, aggressive and abusive behavior.”

What you need to know about the district:

March 13 is the election to fill the seat in Pennsylvania’s 18th congressional district. The region has defined American industrialization, energy, and labor. It’s a union, blue-collar district — there are 70,000 more registered Democrats than Republican, but they stopped voting that way in the last two decades of decline and shifting geopolitics. A coal mine will close this month, effectively laying off 370 workers, TribLive.com reported in January; the economic ideas for the future involve more Marcellus Shale fracking. The district’s hard-right lean is apparent in anti-abortion billboards and gun bash fundraisers — it’s largely pro-life, pro-gun. The Cook Political Report rated PA-18 an 11+ Republican advantage.

Because this is a special election, the winner will have to run again in a few months for the November midterms. By then, this PA-18 won’t likely exist. The Pennsylvania State Supreme Court ruled the state’s congressional map to be redrawn due to gerrymandering, The Hill reported. This means the winner will probably run in a new district with different voters. But even as a Potemkin district, this race is politically significant.

Valerie Fleisher, 40, a resistance organizer, told Teen Vogue that this race was preceded by a yearlong grassroots effort “led by women.” Said Fleisher, “If there is a path to victory in this race, it is because we have worked so hard.”

According to The Hill and Reuters, some interpret President Trump’s hasty order for tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, which he signed Thursday, as timed for this election. Trade protectionism has international consequences, like a potential trade war. The Guardian noted that the EU, for example, is prepared to retaliate with tariffs on certain goods. But the president won PA-18 by 20 points in 2016; a Republican loss would increase momentum for Democrats.

“A lot of steel mills are opening up because of what I did,” Trump said on Saturday at a campaign rally in Moon Township. “I think I’m better looking,” Trump said later in the rally, comparing himself to Lamb. “I like Rick Saccone; I think he’s handsome.”