North Korean blast may destroy China's goodwill

The Canberra Times

North Korea's claim to have detonated a thermonuclear device on Wednesday – though unverified – is a jarring reminder of the international community's abysmal record in preventing the proliferation of nuclear weapons. In 2015, in a major breakthrough in non-proliferation efforts, the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and the European Union persuaded Iran to agree to eliminate its stockpile of enriched uranium and reduce the numbers of its gas centrifuges. But in the meantime, it appears the North Koreans (who are already thought to have stockpiled up to 27 atomic weapons) were working at acquiring a hydrogen bomb, a device many times more powerful than a conventional A-bomb.

The implications of a thermonuclear-armed North Korea in a region where political tensions are rising were spelled out succinctly by UN secretary-general (and former South Korean foreign minister) Ban Ki-moon, who called the test "deeply troubling", and "profoundly destabilizing for regional security". Australia's Foreign Minister Julie Bishop echoed that assessment, describing the test as a threat to international peace and security. Even China, North Korea's only ally, appeared dismayed, with a Foreign Affairs Ministry spokeswoman saying her country "strongly opposes this act".

As ever with new developments in the Hermit Kingdom, there has been more speculation than informed comment about this development: some commentators have suggested it was intended to antagonise the United States, about which the army has recently spoken in more disparaging terms than usual. Others have theorised that Pyongyang was using it to thumb its nose at China. The second hypothesis is the more plausible.

Despite supreme leader Kim Jong-un's proclivities, and the fact that North Korea is effectively bankrupt, China remains a willing underwriter of the regime, as it has been for 60 years. Such indulgence has been attributed to Beijing's desire to maintain the nominally Stalinist state as a security buffer, and its belief that an erratic North Korea serves some useful purpose in distracting and discomforting South Korea, Japan and the United States.

However, signs of impatience with Pyongyang (particularly over its nuclear antics) have emerged in recent years. Beijing also appears to have concerns about the regime's stability, and in recent months has tried to alter the dynamic through diplomatic means. It's also tried to persuade Pyongyang to halt nuclear testing.

If Wednesday's test was indeed meant as a message that North Korea will not be soft-soaped, China now finds itself in an awkward position. It may yearn to exact retribution on a mendicant state which has so pointedly dismissed its concerns but to cut back on economic aid would be to put the regime at risk of collapsing.

As has been frequently remarked during the interminable saga of North Korea's nuclear subterfuge, China's support makes Pyongyang all but impervious to non-proliferation efforts. It's encouraging therefore that China's Foreign Ministry spokeswoman saw fit on Wednesday to say that "China will firmly push for denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula". A nuclear watershed may well have been reached.