Rose Bowl

My picks for the College Football Playoff and the other major bowls are coming separately (and soon!). This post is dedicated to the basics of the new system for fans who have paid little (or no) attention to this point …

*** Six bowls are involved in the rotation. This season, the Rose and Sugar will host the semifinals. Next season, the Cotton and Orange get their shot, then the Fiesta and Peach. In 2017, the rotation starts over.

The championship game, played on a Monday — this year, it’s Jan. 12 at Cowboys Stadium — is not part of the rotation. It’s a separate entity with a bid process all its own.

*** The rotation bowls that aren’t involved in the semifinals in a given year will host major matchups on New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day, combining with the semis to form back-to-back triple-headers.

I’d argue that the reclaiming of Dec. 31 and Jan. 1 for the major bowls is the best part of the CFP system. Those 48 hours will be phenomenal.

*** The selection committee will create the pairings not only for the semifinals (based on its final rankings) but also the other four rotation bowls, with an emphasis on competitive matchups and the geography.

Can’t unveil the Hotline’s postseason projections without a quick refresher on the new postseason structure.

The top four teams in the nation, as determined by the 13-member selection committee, will participate in the College Football Playoff. This season, the Rose and Sugar bowls will host the semifinals on Jan. 1, with the title game at Cowboys Stadium.

If the Pac-12 champion doesn’t qualify for a berth in the playoff: It will be placed (by the committee) in one of the three non-contract bowls — the Fiesta, Cotton or Peach — with preference given to geography and matchup.

It’s also possible that a second team from the conference will be deemed worthy of playing in the Dec. 31/Jan. 1 triple-headers. Heck, the league could send three to the festivities. (Unlike the BCS, there’s no cap on the number of participants from a single conference.)

The bowl-eligible teams that aren’t involved in the Big Six bowls will be available, as usual, for the Pac-12′s contracted games.

A few thoughts on the Granddaddy, starting with broad themes and working our way to game specifics:

*** Michigan State is one of the few opponents over the past four years that is both very good and a difficult matchup for the Cardinal.

Some teams are talented but, at the same time, favorable matchups (think: Oregon, Arizona State, UCLA).

Other teams are a tad shy on talent but pose matchup problems (Oregon State, for instance).

The Spartans are both — and in that respect, they’re similar to USC, which ALWAYS gives Stanford trouble.

As addressed previously on the Hotline, I believe matchups play a greater role in Stanford’s weekly success than they do with other teams because of the Cardinal’s unique style.

Assessing each game from the perspective of the matchup, not the opponent’s overall talent/record/bona fides, is the reason I picked Stanford to lose to Utah, beat Oregon, beat Arizona State in Tempe and lose to Michigan State.

The parity that produced nine teams with at least six wins — and arguably the deepest, toughest conference in the country — was the same eat-your-own parity that 1) kept the league from generating an undefeated or 1-loss team and 2) limited the league to one team in the Bowl Championship Series.

You could make a fairly strong case that the Pac-12 would be better off with a second team in the BCS and only seven or eight bowl-eligible teams.

Oregon in the Orange/Sugar vs. Oregon State in the Hawaii and/or Arizona in the AdvoCare and/or Washington State in the New Mexico?

That’s probably a pretty good trade.

(No offense to the Beavers, Wildcats and Cougars and their dedicated fans. But the exposure, prestige and cash infusion that accompany a BCS at-large berth are enormously important.)

This will be brief because the focus is now on the Rose Bowl and I’m jammed up with non-Stanford assignments.

Result: Won at Arizona State 38-14

Grade: A+

Comment: Dominant road win over a ranked opponent with a title on the line — if that doesn’t deserve an A+, nothing does.

Considering the stakes and the opponent, it was the Cardinal’s best showing on the road this season by a factor of 10. As a result, Stanford is making its fourth consecutive BCS appearance, the longest active streak in the country.

Three underlying assumptions as we outline Stanford’s postseason options:

1. At this point, there are too many bowls, too many teams and too many permutations involved to know Stanford’s fate with even a remote degree of certainty. Everything you’re about to read could be moot by the close of business Saturday.

2. Not every scenario is examined below, including the potential ramifications of the Jameis Winston situation on Florida State’s landing spot.

3. With three consecutive BCS appearances, two losses and no Andrew Luck, the Cardinal is not as valued a commodity within BCS circles as it was two and three years ago.

Okay, here we go …

*** We know the National Championship Game is out of reach.

*** We also know the road to the Rose Bowl requires an Oregon loss this week (at Arizona) or next (vs. Oregon State).

That might seem improbable – the Ducks are favored by 20 in Tucson and have run the Beavers off the field the past three years — but it’s clearly the path of least resistance into the BCS for the Cardinal.

Even if Stanford beats Cal and Notre Dame, finishes 10-2 and is ranked in the No. 6-8 range, a BCS at-large berth seems highly unlikely at this point.

*** Keep in mind: There are four at-large spots available, and two of them will almost assuredly be allocated to replacements for the title game participants.

For example: If Alabama plays Florida State for the title, then Sugar would grab a team from the SEC to replace the Crimson Tide and the Orange would take Clemson (the No. 2 from the ACC) to replace the Seminoles.

If Ohio State jumps into the title game, then the Rose Bowl will replace the Buckeyes with a team from the Big Ten.

If Baylor plays for the title, the Fiesta would take a team from the Big 12 to replace the Bears.

Because the eat-your-own Pac-12 is on the outskirts of the NCG race — Oregon’s chances are slim, at best — the conference doesn’t have the easy at-large access provided by a replacement selection.

The muddled middle remains, with five teams bunched together at 4-2/3-3 in league play. But the Rose Bowl race gained clarity after Stanford held off the Ducks.

The Cardinal needs help to reach the national championship: It must win out (USC, Cal, Notre Dame, Pac-12 title game) … and it needs several of undefeated teams to lose … and it needs Utah to start winning.

The Utes haven’t won since the Oct. 12 upset — to be fair: their schedule hasn’t exactly been soft — and are steadily undermining Stanford’s resume.

If the Cardinal gets into a run-off with other one-loss teams for the second spot in NCG and pollsters start comparing losses, it could be problematic. Stanford would need a sizable advance in the computers to offset a likely deficit in the polls.

But there’s a long way to go between here and there, especially given the limited chances for Ohio State and Florida State to lose.

(Alabama has two difficult games remaining: The Iron Bowl, which is on the road, and the SEC championship.

(Then again, Stanford could have an Auburn problem if the Tigers run the table and are involved in a one-loss fight for the second spot in the title game.)

The season is just beginning, yet a controversial ending is already easy to spot:

Let’s say Alabama or Ohio State goes undefeated. Would an undefeated Louisville, the dominant team in the second-rate American Athletic Conference, warrant the second spot in the national title game ahead of a one-loss team from the SEC, Pac-12 or Big Ten?

That scenario would be a fitting conclusion for the BCS, which – for all its faults — has helped make college football the second most-popular sport in the country and usher in the playoff era.

Without the BCS and its antecedents (the Alliance and Coalition), we wouldn’t have a four-team playoff. The conference commissioners and school presidents would never have gone from the old bowl system straight to a playoff.

While reading the projections below, and watching the season unfold, remember:

* Teams are eligible for at-large selection if they have nine wins and are in the top 14 of the final BCS standings.