Arizona immigration law boosts Gov. Brewer's rating

But points scored with own party may be erased by sales-tax push

by Ginger Rough - Apr. 29, 2010 12:00 AMThe Arizona Republic

Signing the nation's toughest immigration legislation into law has thrust Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer into the national spotlight, and recent polls suggest the move has given her job-performance ratings a boost.

But her support of Senate Bill 1070 is unlikely to carry her gubernatorial campaign through the summer and into the fall, analysts say.

That's because Brewer has put herself at the forefront of yet another controversial issue: Proposition 100, the temporary sales-tax hike that goes before voters next month.

Brewer's advocacy of the 1-cent-per-dollar tax increase is such a sore point with core Republican voters that her stance on the immigration bill may not be enough to mitigate it when voters head to the polls in August for the primary elections, political experts say.

"To sustain this to the end of August is going to be very difficult," said Rudy Espino, an assistant professor at Arizona State University's School of Politics and Global Studies. "Proposition 100 is going to become the wedge issue between her and her opponents, and I think, in the end, this (immigration bill) is going to be a wash for her."

Some pundits say that if she hadn't signed the immigration bill, her campaign effectively would have been dead in the water because all her primary opponents had said they supported the legislation.

But by signing it, she opened the state to the threat of lawsuits and boycotts and made her election bid vulnerable to political repercussions from independents and a Latino voting bloc that Republicans have been actively courting.

"There is a great deal of disappointment," said Edmundo Hidalgo, president and chief executive officer of Chicanos Por La Causa Inc., a non-profit advocacy group. "The Republican Party is not being viewed as Hispanic-friendly. All of that work (to woo Latino voters) has gone by the wayside with one swoop of the pen."

In an interview with The Republic this week, Brewer acknowledged the political challenges that come from her support of the immigration bill and Proposition 100.

But she glossed over any concerns about their impact on her campaign.

"I am a politician. I operate in the political arena," she said. "I am hopeful that I will win. But I also said I was going to make decisions based on what is right for the state.

"That's what I am trying to do."

Brewer ascended to the Governor's Office after her Democratic predecessor, Janet Napolitano, joined President Barack Obama's administration in January 2009.

In her first 14 months on the job, Brewer flew largely under the radar, engrossed in budget battles with the Legislature.

But, in the past month, she has taken on two high-profile issues, first joining other states in a lawsuit challenging the constitutionality of the federal health-care legislation, and last week, signing SB 1070 into law.

The immigration measure makes it a state crime to be in Arizona illegally and requires police and other law-enforcement officials to check documents of people they reasonably suspect to be illegal.

Critics said it could lead to racial profiling, although the governor has said the law-enforcement community will be trained to avoid that.

Recent days

In recent days, Brewer, who doesn't typically reveal details about strategy or process, has become increasingly vocal about her decision to support the immigration legislation, granting interviews on radio, local public television and cable news.

She uses every opportunity to lash out at the federal government for its inaction on border security. She decries what she calls "hysteria" among the bill's opponents.

"I've been a bit disappointed with all the hysteria and misinformation that's been circulating out there," she told The Republic.

The bill, Brewer said, will not lead to racial profiling or "this idea that everyone is going get arrested and that people should be afraid to come to Arizona."

"I think there's been a lot of hype," she added.

The tough talk appears to be sitting well with would-be voters, particularly the GOP electorate in the position to vault her into the general election this fall.

Brewer faces potential primary challenges from businessman Buz Mills, state Treasurer Dean Martin and former Arizona Board of Regents President John Munger.

A poll released Wednesday suggests that 56 percent of Arizonans approve of Brewer's job performance as governor. In a poll two weeks ago, just 40 percent indicated they approved of the job she was doing.

Most importantly, the poll, conducted by Rasmussen Reports, a New Jersey-based firm, determined that 81 percent of the Republicans surveyed approved of Brewer's performance, up from 52 percent previously.

The survey didn't directly ask respondents if her action on the immigration bill changed their opinion of her job-approval rating, but Rasmussen tied the two together in its analysis, given that the new poll was conducted just days after she signed it into law.

The poll, which surveyed 500 likely Arizona voters by telephone on Tuesday, had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points, with a 95 percent confidence level.

There have been some questions about the legitimacy of such telephone surveys, which rely on automated "robocalls," a method that is "untested at the very least," said pollster Mike O'Neil, head of O'Neil Associates Inc., a Tempe-based research firm.

But their results are echoed by would-be voters like Cris Valenzuela of Tucson, who said Brewer's action on the immigration bill will make him rethink whether to support her in her election bid.

"I would say that before her support of 1070, I was really on the fence about whether I might vote for her," said Valenzuela, 31. "Now, it is much more likely that I will."

Part of Valenzuela's remaining hesitation is directly tied to Brewer's championing of the temporary sales tax, which she says is critical to helping avert more "draconian" cuts to state programs.

Brewer's campaign spokesman Doug Cole knows voters such as Valenzuela could be an issue.

"Many pundits have opined that her position could be problematic for her in the primary," he said. "All of her opponents . . . what is their Number 1 issue against her? That."

Complicating Brewer's political fortunes is the potential of a backlash from Latinos and other opponents of the immigration measure.

Some observers speculate that those voters could throw their support behind presumptive Democratic gubernatorial nominee Terry Goddard in the November general election or even find a way to sabotage Brewer in the coming months.

For example, Hidalgo said there is talk that some may deliberately vote against Proposition 100 as payback.

"They view this as being her (Brewer's) baby," he said. "Defeating it would be a blow to her."

Brewer said she hopes that doesn't happen. "To link the bills because they don't like (my action on 1070) . . . well, I just think it would be really unfortunate that people would retaliate for their own self-interest."