Barck Obama will approve contentious Keystone XL pipeline: strategist

Foreign policy issues will dominate the rest of U.S. President Barack Obama’s tenure, his government will continue to stagnate and the Keystone XL pipeline will be approved, predicts Robert (Bob) Shrum, a senior Democrat political consultant.

He expounded on politics south of the border while sitting in the lobby of a modern hotel in downtown Calgary Thursday; this was his first visit, he said, and he found himself struck by the view of the mountains and the vibrancy of a city that reminded him of Houston

“I notice a type of apprehension, even paranoia about what’s going to happen to the Keystone pipeline,” he said in an interview before his appearance at the Teatro Speaker Series, which is sponsored by the National Post, later that evening.

“I think Barack Obama, on his record, does what he says he’s going to do.”

Mr. Shrum says the president refused TransCanada’s previous application only because the Republicans had backed him into an ultimatum that would give the government too little time to consider route alternatives through the sensitive Ogallala aquifer.

“There were concerns on the route that it goes over, it needs to go on a new route, that needs to pass an environmental review and if it does pass … he will approve it. And I think some people in his own base will get very angry with him,” he said.

Indeed. The pipeline has become a contentious, albeit largely symbolic issue for U.S. and Canadian environmental activists. The most extreme believe it would spark development in the oilsands that would ultimately destroy the planet.

Mr. Shrum said the president’s approach is more moderate: Mr. Obama is a leftist, but he’s pragmatic. Fossil fuels will be part of the energy mix for a long time to come.

His words carry some weight: the veteran consultant is a regular columnist for The Daily Beast and Slate; he teaches at New York University in Abu Dhabi; and his speechwriting and political consulting credentials stretch back to the 1970s.

What he doesn’t have is a solid track record of being correct. He worked on eight presidential campaigns, from George McGovern and Michael Dukakis to John Kerry and Al Gore — and all of them lost, leading some in Washington to suggest there is a “Shrum curse.”

“Some people who don’t like me stuck me with it. I don’t particularly care about it,” he said.

“When I was a speechwriter for George McGovern, I was hardly in charge of that campaign, and if I was, we would have lost anyway.”

As for Mr. Gore, he “did get elected. He just didn’t get inaugurated.”

Regardless, his time advising potential presidents is well behind him now. It’s time for the Democrats’ next generation to take over, although Mr. Shrum is not eliminating the possibility of a 2016 presidential run by Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden.

On the Republican side, he thinks New Jersey Governor Chris Christy could offer either of them a fair fight — if he weren’t saddled by a reputation for being too moderate.

“It’s going to be a majority non-white nation. It’s going to be a nation where women are much more independent, much more equal, where they have many more rights than they did in the past. And it’s going to be a nation that respects gay and lesbian rights, and I think that’s tough for a lot of people.”

In comparison, Canadian conservatives have managed much electoral success by abandoning right-wing positions on abortion and gay marriage.

Until they follow the same path, the Republicans will continue to fail on the presidential ballot. Meanwhile, government as a whole will stagnate in the face of obstruction in the House of Representatives.

The entire political apparatus is at a stalemate, with the House refusing to let Mr. Obama score any kind of win, Mr. Shrum said. That will leave the president with little to do except to focus his attention on the growing foreign policy crises in Syria, Iran and North Korea.

None of it sounds like a lot of fun.

“There’s a stasis in American government. People talk about Obama as a lame-duck president. Actually what we have right now is a lame-duck government. We can’t move on almost any of the issues,” he said.

But for all it’s troubles, Mr. Shrum said, nobody who runs for president ever seems too keen to give the job back.