Daily Archives: November 8, 2012

Remember back in September when I did a blog post on the
correlation between first frosts and first flakes? If not, you can
click here to read that post. Interestingly, within the past 10
years the Bremerton area ALWAYS saw a first frost sometime in
October, but not this time. Although we came close, we never got
below freezing.

So yes, we broke a 10 year trend, but at least it wasn’t by
much. Bremerton Airport reported a very chilly 30 degrees last
night, resulting in areas of spotty frost and freezes. So what does
this mean? Will the snow flakes start falling later because the
frost arrived later? Not exactly. In fact, rather disappointingly,
my study found that there was actually very little correlation
between a first frost and first snow, so at least we’ve got that
off our backs!

But we must also remember what weather pattern will be in play
this winter: La Nada, or neutral. Neutral winters are so viciously
wild card that literally anything can happen for any certain length
of time. This certainly doesn’t make long range forecasting any
easier, but at least it’s good news we won’t be too far into a
drought or flooding scenario, which El Nino’s and La Nina’s tend to
bring, respectively.

In fact, the rest of the week into next week doesn’t look
anything close to a drought. Luckily, Mother Nature is pressing
pause on our weather pattern enough to offer peaks of blue skies
for any early weekend plans, but boy does the tune change when we
start the new week. More mountain snow and lowland rain will fall
from time to time throughout the week with highs near 50.

I honestly don’t see any signs of snow or a rain/snow mix in the
long range, although temperatures will remain cool. As of right now
it looks like a seasonably rainy Thanksgiving this year, but it’s
still a bit too early to tell 😉