The Fortress World scenario has the potential to destroy the environment and,
possibly, the whole of humankind (see Figure 4.13).
Since there will be no coordinated efforts to ensure environmental sustainability,
the situation regarding most resources is one of overexploitation, either to
meet the needs of the Úlite or to ensure the basic survival of the poor. Environmental
conditions, therefore, deteriorate, as pollution, climate change, land change
and ecosystem degradation interact to amplify the crisis. Environmental degradation,
food insecurity and emergent diseases foster a vast health crisis, as both free
market values and reformist tendencies become incapable of handling environmental
externalities. The affluent minority, alarmed by rampant migration, terrorism
and disease, reacts with sufficient cohesion and strength to impose an authoritarian
Fortress World, where they flourish in protected enclaves. The fortresses are
bubbles of privilege amidst oceans of misery.

The Great Transitions scenario, on the other hand, may arise from two totally
unrelated considerations. Given that a Fortress World scenario is destructive
to the environment and to humanity, it could be a harbinger of the urgent need
for all humankind, including Africans, to seek alternative ways of managing
the environment. Depending on the level of destruction that people's activities
would have wrought on the environment by the time this need arises, a Great
Transitions scenario may or may not be sustainable (see Figure
4.13).

Box 4.3 Disenchantment

'Development theory has undergone constant revision and has
been informed by a broad spectrum of approaches.One can conclude
that the problems of development are larger than the highly heterogeneous
policies, plans and programmes undertaken by the full spectrum of
economic approaches. It is increasingly evident that our understanding
of the reasons why onefifth of humanity enjoys unprecedented wealth
while the other four-fifths live in various states of poverty and
privation is incomplete. Clearly, conventional analyses of socio-economic,
cultural, ecological and political phenomena are limited in their
ability to elucidate the multiple problems we now encounter globally.

'The thesis presented here is that development itself, or at
least the concepts we use to define it, are deficient.We can speak
of a global problematic embodying three broad sets of phenomena;
trenchant poverty, environmental degradation and socio-political
unrest. Related to this problematic is existential malaise, particularly
in those societies considered the most "developed".This global problematic
is not transient. It speaks to profound issues about who we are
that have become repressed in our individual and social consciousness.'

Source: Gotlieb 1996

On the other hand, the seeds of change are already being
germinated all over Africa, and governments and NGOs are already aware of the
need to evolve a new course and a new perspective on environmental and development
issues. The intellectual community, too, as shown in various aspects of the
description of the Great Transition scenario, are already clamouring for a new
dictum on development. The honest ones among the developed countries already
accept the fact that they have misled the developing world for too long (Gotlieb
1996). Africa's democratically elected leaders have also become more responsible
and humane, and are anxious to subscribe to the issue of environmental sustainability.
They, however, need to be convinced of the inability of the Market Forces scenario
and the Policy Reform scenario to lead Africa to the promised land (see Box
4.3). Everybody detests the idea of a Fortress World scenario evolving and
playing itself out in Africa.

Given the current trend in Africa and all over the world, it may be surmised
that a Market Forces scenario may only be plausible within a short time-say,
ten years-at about which point probabilities are high that a number of branching
points will start to emerge. Possible branching points may include:

Increasing social pressures for government reform, and more concerted attention
to environmental and social issues. It is this that may lead to a full blown
Policy Reform scenario.

Increasing concentration of wealth and power. When posited with existing
levels of corruption, there will be a breakdown in civil society and a rise
in political anarchy. It is this that may lead to lead to the Fortress World
scenario.

Of course, widespread rejection of the 'IMF Dream', coupled with the development
and adoption of new technologies, approaches and visions. This is what may
lead to the Great Transition Scenario.

Nonetheless, the point being made is that the environment is so valuable and
the inhabitants so precious that the future need not be left to chance or to
some curious form of evolution. The scenarios described in this report have
shown the unacceptability of a business-as-usual approach to environmental issues.
It has also shown the inadequacy of an acceptance of a Policy Reform scenario.
Something that has not worked in the past is not likely to work now or in the
future unless the constraints that made it non-functional in the first instance
are removed. Certain forces that militate against the removal of these constraints
dominate the world political and economic system.

Africa has been very vulnerable to many events happening all over the world
or within the region itself. For instance, the consequences of environmental
disasters, such as floods and drought, continue to haunt the inhabitants of
many countries, and remain one of the great challenges to governments. Of course,
the problem of hunger is mostly felt in Africa, where more than 75 per cent
of the population live below the poverty line. Many of these aspects of vulnerability
have been discussed and described in Chapter 4, and need
not be repeated here. But the lesson is that, unless concrete steps are taken
in the way we use the environment, the sufferings and problems of the 20th century
will be child's play compared to what lies in store. Wherein, then, lies our
future in Africa?

For some time, the Great Transitions scenario may remain an enigma to both
policy and practice. Yet therein lies the hope for Africa and the African environment.
It will remain an enigma for many reasons. First, it is going to be difficult
to convince the peoples of Africa that the future of humankind lies in the Great
Transitions scenario. Secondly, African countries are not all at the same level
of awareness and socioeconomic development, so the idea of a Great Transitions
scenario could still look like a dream to some. Furthermore, the expectations
in the Great Transitions are things that take time to mature. Take, for instance,
the issue of good governance, which democracy represents, and its almost universal
acceptance as the best form of government to promote development. In recent
times and in many countries, including some Indian Ocean Islands, there have
been reports of military takeover of governments. It is, therefore, possible
to expect that, even when there could be a belief in the principles of the Great
Transitions scenario, the playing field in Africa is far from level. There is
a need to emphasize the need for this awareness. Wherein lies the future of
Africa?

In order to answer this question meaningfully, we like to draw on the relationship
between the Policy Reform scenario and the Great Transitions scenario. Both
scenarios are forms of 'backcasting' (see Figure 4.4),
whereby desirable futures, and device mechanisms for manipulating the system
to meet targets, are defined. The future of the African environment lies in
the ability of governments and ministers of the environment to appreciate that
current policies and practices remain grossly inadequate when it comes to meeting
the demands of a sustainable environment. There are many MEAs currently in operation.
These agreements and protocols were designed to assist Africans to cultivate
some respect for the environment. We have shown that current rates of population
growth, and the demand on resources, render these efforts inadequate. Of course,
many of them are a distant cry from what is required to move towards a Great
Transitions pattern of environmental sustainability. As a first step, governments
should review these MEAs, and create mechanisms in order to ensure their compliance
by differ-ent countries in the region. Governments should:

devise systems for identifying requirements for a sustainable environment;

set new targets based on the requirements of a Great Transitions pattern
of environmental growth (see narratives);

design mechanisms to steer national, sub-regional and regional poli-cies
towards meeting these new targets (this could imply the institution of new
memorandums of understanding, based on the new environmental standards); and

encourage governments in different countries to manage their environments
conscientiously, in line with these new standards and targets.