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Monday, June 11, 2007

Monsoon Watch - 24

The progress of the Arabian Sea branch of the monsoon is held up due to the lack of sufficient wind "push" from the rear. This is evident from this streamline (IMD). It indicates a weaker wind north of Goa coast, and lack of any formation of a low.Clearly now a couple of days more delay of the northward approach of the monsoon along the west coast ?Earliar the forecast arrival for Mumbai was 8th.June.

The bay arm is active ,and made up for the delay in onset time. Its progress, now towards Bihar is maintained, and the winds above the trough have turned east.

Even the ECMWF, European model, has been indicating the formation of a low in the bay since the past few days. When formed, this could surely hasten up the flow of the monsoon along the west coast of India.Models show the anticipated low to form around the head of the bay( already behind forecast schedule).This low ,when formed, must be followed by weather observers, as it would interact with the monsoon flow (that is winds from the Arabian sea would get stronger), and scale up the rain along the west coast and into Gujarat and interior Maharashtra,and central peninsula .

ECMWF also sees another low along the south east coast of India. This, if it forms, should also be obsereved, as its inland movement could mean good rain for the peninsula.When these low's form and what happens is to be seen and followed as no amount of forecasting seems to hold true.(One reader asks ,"is the monsoon behaviour crazy this year ?). I say ,No, only we are not able to understand the weather and monsoon systems !

Meanwhile there is no respite from the heat wave in the northern parts of the sub continent. Its getting hotter and even hotter. This temperature map shows the various 50' s and a single 52 across Pakistan. Most of the norhtern plains of India reel under temperatures between 45 - 48 c. The north Indian hill station, Simla had a high of 31.2 c, reching 31 after 12 years, and Srinagar in Kashmir was at 34.5 c (+6 c).