European Expansion, More Athletic Players Seen In Nba's Future

INTRODUCING THE NBA LOOKING AHEAD

November 3, 1989|By Tim Povtak of The Sentinel Staff

During an appearance on his weekly television show last season, Lakers Coach Pat Riley was asked about the future of the NBA. Although the question refered to basketball in the '90s, Riley's crystal ball temporarily stuck on fast forward, zapping him all the way to the 2,050.

Miami had just beaten Charlotte for the NBA title.

''Their center was only 8 foot 2, but they won anyway,'' Riley said. ''Now, isn't that something.''

Although the prospect of a center being ''only 8-2,'' might seem like centuries away, some much more believable changes are expected to happen by the year 2,000.

The '90s are expected to bring unprecedented prosperity to the league, bigger and stronger players, astronomical salaries, expansion into Europe, international rules and a starting lineup of five interchangable players all in the 6-foot-9 range.

''The game has been evolving the past 15-20 years,'' said Orlando Magic Coach Matt Guokas. ''The next decade, I'd expect it to continue to evolve. Things will look different. A lot of things could happen.''

One of the biggest changes could be expansion into Europe, although that prospect has received mixed reviews. Carl Scheer, general manager of the Charlotte Hornets, thinks there could be a entire division of European teams before the year 2,000. Pat Williams, general manager of the Orlando Magic disagrees. He doesn't expect any more expansion for the next 10 years.

''It's a natural,'' Scheer said. ''The league already is making great strides overseas, where we are very popular. It's the next big market. The travel will not be that big a deal. It seems like we're always finding ways to make trips shorter these day.''

The NBA, for the past three years, has sent a team to the McDonald's Open, an international tournament with teams from across Europe. The Denver Nuggests this used that tournament basically as its exhibition season. By the mid 90s, according to one NBA executive, the league champion is likely to play Europe's best professional teams in a round robin, or at least a single-game competition.

''I could see our champion playing against a European champion for a true world championship,'' said Wayne Embry, Cleveland Cavaliers' general manager. ''As basketball improves around the world, it really is a misnomer to call the Detroit Pistons 'world champions' when there may be a Yugoslavian team, or a Russian team, that might be able to beat them.''

The NBA already is a huge marketing success in Europe. It already has television contracts in 75 countries, on every continent except Antarctica. The league estimates that nearly 200 million foreign households could receive its games on a regular or irregular basis.

The path between basketball here and in foreign countries has gone both ways. Duke's Danny Ferry, the second pick in the 1989 college draft, opted to play in Italy rather than with the Los Angeles Clippers. Brian Shaw left the Celtics to join the same Italian league team. Benoit Benjamin and Rick Mahorn both threatened to play in Italy.

With the recent agreement allowing professional players to remain eligible for the Olympic Games, five new foreign player, from Yugoslavia and the Soviet Union, joined the NBA this season.

NBA Commissioner David Stern publicly has remained non-commital toward any European expansion, he is the one who organized the NBA's world-wide marketing division and the McDonald's Open. He also has his staff working on additional exhibition opportunties against foreign competition.

''It's hard to say what will happen (in regard to foreign expansion),'' said Rod Thorn, NBA vice-president for operations. ''I think the commissioner has his eye on a lot of things. He won't let us rush into anything until it's time.''

NBA Rules in the NBA already are changing to reflect international play. In the final minute of each quarter, scoreboard clocks will display tenths of seconds, an international rule being adopted this season. Legalizing of zone defenses, officials not being required to touch the ball before inbounding in the back court, a fan-shaped, wider lane and a 30-second clock are among changes that could be studies. All work toward an international style of play.

The actual players probably won't look much different, only a little bigger overall, and a lot stronger as the game gets even more physical. The low post player - a la Kareem Abdul Jabbar - may disappear for a number of reasons. Defenses have grown more sophisticated and can more easily stop that kind of player. And there are not many players coming into the league anymore with those low post skills.

The prototype center for the 90s will look like Akeem Olajuwon, a 7-foot, 250-pound player who also has great athletic skills and the mobility to play many different roles. He has the quickness to run the floor along with the strength to dominate close to the basket.