Comments

OK - I'm less than a paragraph in and I have to object. Donald Trump is a "...punishment to an establishment that disregarded the demands of ...Occupy Wall Street..." Are you out of your mind? The aging hippies, spoiled youngsters, and urban liberals, defecating on police cars, who made up the OWS movement uniformly supported the establishment candidate Hillary Clinton. Trump's support was from rural, suburban, and working class folks who have neither the time nor the inclination to camp out downtown to feel self-righteous. They would be much more likely to be Tea Party supporters than OWS. Complete opposite end of the political spectrum!

I can understand the silliness of connecting opposition to the EU to opposition to liberal democracy - you are still under the desperate delusion that the EU supports democracy regardless of the evidence to the contrary. But the idea that you would connect Trump support with Occupy Wall Street is ignorant beyond belief.

"Trump is not just an ill-tempered child... he ... could destabilize the international order..." I think I agree with the ill-tempered child comment, but need to point out that the international order is suffering from some pretty bad conditions which truly need some shaking up. A good deal of that is related to the EU, which is falling apart to a large extent because of over-reach by its central government. There is some general agreement that European countries need to support their own defense more than they currently are. Eurocrats are determined that it should only be done via a Europe-wide defense force, which does not have any support from the population. They need to recognize that they cannot do it and GET OUT OF THE WAY. They have lost sight of the idea of cooperation and only understand control at this point. If they don't wake up the project is over. Yes NATO is feeling rattled, but in part that is because the membership is pretending to be involved, but Russia has called that bluff and we need to restore real participation. Trump or no Trump that bluff has been called and we need to react. Read more

The US, in its moment of triumphalism, moved its NATO commitments to Russia's doorstep. The collapse of the Soviet Union and the communist system was confused with the collapse of Russia and the historical Russian role in Eastern Europe. Now, Putin is reasserting Russian policy.

It is time the West accommodates Russian concern with NATO expansion, but it must get a quid pro quo in Russian guarantees concerning the sovereignty of countries on its border. With 10,000-20,000 nuclear weapons between them, the prospect of a military settlement of the issue is highly unlikely. As well, the sort of governments in major eastern European countries - Poland, Hungary, Ukraine, Romania, etc. - don't really fit well with Western ideals about liberal democracy. The authoritarian and illiberal tendencies of the voters in these countries indicate a preference more akin to what Putin has given the Russian people.

NATO should have checked out the neighborhood before it moved in. Read more

"Donald Trump’s election as president is a punishment to an establishment that disregarded the demands of the 2011 Occupy Wall Street protests."

There is a big difference between left wing populism and right wing populism. Trump supporters primarily are angry at Washington, not Wall Street. Trump supporters admire a billionaire developer who promises to give huge tax breaks to wealthy investors. Read more

"Trump is not just an ill-tempered child playing with nuclear matches; he is also dangerously ambitious, and his foreign-policy proposals could unravel crucial alliances and destabilize the international order. Of course, nobody – not even Trump himself – knows if he will keep his campaign promises"

It was crucial alliances that produced the horrors of The Great War. All it took was the assassination of an Austro-Hungarian princling and 20 million people died as a result. I think it would be better to stuff those "crucial alliances" in the nearest handy trash bin. Read more

The author comes across as a believer of the American policy and belief in a Russia with evil designs on Europe. This is straight out propaganda, with little basis in fact. Demonising Russia is an internal issue for the US government. They need a baddie to rail against. Fancy not understanding that the US having a ring of military bases surrounding Russia is hardly a friendly act. Also Clinton repudiated the agreement with Moscow to not move NATO even 1 metre closer to Russia, Not only that the foment a revolt in the Ukraine now run by neo-nazis and force Russia to reclaim Crimea to keep its access to the Black Sea. Rethink!!! Read more

Sławomir Sierakowski, a Polish left-wing intellectual is sceptical of the EU, but he is also critical of the conservative, ruling party in Poland. While he sees Brexit and Trump's win vindicate his belief that "liberal democracy has ceased to be the canon of Western politics," he hasn't lost faith in the credibility of democracy, when it comes to standing up to Russia. He worries about how Eastern Europe will fare in the Trump era.The author puts the blame on the "rule of economic liberalism in the West /for/ the demise of political liberalism," saying leaders have ignored the concerns of the Occupy Wall Street protests in 2011. As a result of free trade, globalisation and technology, disaffected citizens, who "have lost out from liberal democracy" - led by populists - resort to referendums to outmanoeuvre ruling mainstream parties, as a "punishment" to their establishment.No doubt Brexit and Trump have dealt a blow to the EU, which is grappling with multiple crises, plunging its eastern members into uncertainty, since they joined the bloc and NATO a decade ago, defying their former tormentor - Russia. They watch with fear how Putin annexed Crimea and stokes violence in eastern Ukraine. The elections in the US does serve as a wakeup call to Europe to get its act together and reduce its reliance on the US for defence. The EU will have to reinvent itself, if it wants to survive politically. The general elections next year in France and Germany will determine the fate of the bloc, as it relies on Berlin and Paris to keep the European project afloat.While the author believes that Britain and the US would survive the domestic turmoil following the Brexit vote and the presidential election, he says Europe emerges as the "biggest loser." He compares the status quo to "the Concert of Europe, which stabilized the continent between 1815 and World War I. But that system excluded many countries, one of which was Poland."It is true that "the EU is an ideal target for populist attacks," and the author sees it as "an incomplete, technocratic creation," which "has so far failed to integrate sufficiently to prevent its own collapse." But Poland has not done much to make the European project work. "Despite being the largest recipient of EU funds, /it/ opposes further integration, has not adopted the euro, wants to burn coal, and quarrels with Germany, France, and EU governing institutions."The author can't say that the EU "reaction to Brexit has been to procrastinate." It is waiting for Brtiain to trigger Article 50, before it can start negotiating with May's government. He goes on criticising the "wealthy Germany" for not wanting "to extend a helping hand to southern EU countries," defending why "newly sovereign post-communist countries are rejecting refugees and refusing to show solidarity with Western Europe." No doubt there is a east/west divide, that needs to be closed.Indeed, "the EU is just as wealthy as the US on the whole" and has the technology to beef up its military capabilities. EU leaders have long been too complacent to worry about having its own army and depended "entirely on the US for its defense." The question: "Why, one wonders, did it take multiple transatlantic disasters for the EU to realize that it must attend to its own security" is justified.The author says: "with Western influence waning, Eastern European countries will likely deepen their economic and diplomatic ties with Russia." This is treacherous. It appears they were more interested in the benefits rather than sharing the burden of the European project. "In Estonia, the pro-Russian Center Party is about to enter the ruling coalition. And after the Baltics, it will be Eastern European countries’ turn. Those countries that have not already embraced Russian President Vladimir Putin will have no alternative but to do so."The author lays bare the mood in this region: "Poland has nothing to gain from such an alliance. Poles consider their current borders sacred, not a curse, as in Hungary. Only a political idiot would bet on an alliance with revisionists like Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Sadly, as Trump’s election indicates all too clearly, illiberal idiocy is steadily replacing liberal democracy as the ruling doctrine of Western – and Polish – politics today." Perhaps the EU's 2004 eastern enlargement came to soon. Hardly had its members gained independence after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, and their sense of nationhood, they joined the EU. Now when things don't work out for them, they want to go their own way.﻿ Read more

Such important points are being openly recognized here, that we should leave aside silliness about the EU being defenseless (with members having millions of troops in continental Europe, even without the US).

1. That the global rise of right-populists is a backlash against economic-liberal policies of the last few decades ("neoliberal" in the vernacular). That the current wave of elections are plebistices on those policies. This is an amazingly direct statement of the matter, for these pages. I almost wonder if an editor is about to retire...

2. That the biggest loser in this wave is the EU. Having already suffered one crushing blow from the financial crisis and the nonsensical policies that followed it, handcuffed by Eurozone requirements. Then another blow, on the political level, from the migration crisis. That brought about by belligerent foreign policies. And the whole time, slow but steady erosion of confidence from the "less prosperous" EU nations due to their work forces being skipped over due to globalization. Read more

PeteyChances are dissatisfaction will get worse with AI impacting jobs. That is going to be a key element going forward - and probably a very difficult group to compensate. However - AI is likely to hit Asia harder so agitation will not be just in the west. Read more

Wow, thanks for that chart. I think you're absolutely right. A big part of the package called economic- liberalism is a very myopic attitude towards the value of labor relations.

So far, in the US, it is the blue collar middle class that bit back the hardest. Trump's poll numbers were better among middle income than low income for one thing (the LA times daybreak poll broke it down).

The other economic fault line is education. But blue collar middle class were able to send their kids to college, that's something to think through. They don't see a realistic white-collar future for their kids despite that. And looking ahead, a lot of white-collar middle class may also get obsoleted or offshored, while worldwide productivity continues to rise. Sooner or later, we will have to face the problem as one of purely distribution.

Sorry to get carried away with this... but In another few decades, demographic changes should alleviate the racism issue if we don't promote divisive politics, but the economic issue will only get worse. To intentionally couple the issues of racism and "ignorance" against progressive economics was a bad, bad idea.Read more

The author of this article should get a life. The Status Quo has failed and has failed miserably. Accept it. People have expressed their democratic right. Accept it. The anti-establishment movements (excluding the U turn by the Greek leadership), have won. Accept it. Real Change is coming to the EU, whether the establishment likes it or not. Trump has been given a mandate for 4 years, he might succeed or might fail like most of his predecessors. After 4 years he may be out totally naked if he does not deliver on creating jobs and re-enstating the middle class which has been eroded. So my advice to other authors such as our dear fellow in here, if you have nothing constructive to say, better say nothing. Read more

...'Meanwhile, the EU is just as wealthy as the US on the whole, and yet it has no army, and depends entirely on the US for its defense'

This suggests there are no armed forces in the EU which is not true. Each country has its own armed forces. You also have NATO which is a greater resource than the EU could put together. As most EU NATO members are not meeting the NATO funding criteria that needs addressing as a priority.

Yes the Quixotic nature of having this group vociferously demand the right to freely migrate to countries such as the UK yet vociferously demand no migrants whatsoever turn up in their own homelands has been noted. It is just one more example of the problems facing anybody arguing that the EU can rationally deal with its problems. The demand to have your cake and eat it and somebody elses cake as well runs deep it would seem.

EU '..reaction to Brexit has been to procrastinate'. No not at all. EU reaction has been to propose more federalism. Like the Borg in Star Trek, anything and everything must be assimilated into the collective without question. Anybody questioning the sanity of this quasi religious cult like belief is scorned as not being a liberal, the ultimate sin. However the Death Star that is the Euro means this Borg outcome is most unlikely

'...Poland,...the largest recipient of EU funds'. Well post Brexit the money pot will shrink by 15%. Perhaps a wake up call is needed. When somebody pull the emergency stop cord on the gravy train it spills everywhere and there is less left. EnjoyRead more

PS On Air: The Super Germ Threat

NOV 2, 2016

In the latest edition of PS On
Air
, Jim O’Neill discusses how to beat antimicrobial resistance, which
threatens millions of lives, with Gavekal Dragonomics’ Anatole Kaletsky
and Leonardo Maisano of
Il Sole 24 Ore.

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