Guttenburg wrote:Too early to make a call on his redraft value? Former number 1, 25 years old..man, how doesn't he go by round 3?

Well, at this point I wouldn't take him before the 10th round. So much of his value is tied to RBI and AVG. RBI are mostly team-dependent (especially significant because his Twins aren't exactly an offensive powerhouse) and AVG is prone to variability. He has only 13 HR and 4 SB which is good for a rather unimpressive 22/7 full season pace. He's striking out a lot less but his walk rate is still garbage. Change the RBI to a more reasonable number and he's about as valuable as Brennan Boesch. Granted, Delmon was a #1 pick, but he's been a poorly performing full-time major leaguer for 3+ years. There is the upside but there's also the downside that he reverts to pre-2010 Delmon.

Rocinante2: you knowRocinante2: its easy to dismiss the orioles as a bad teamofanrex: go onRocinante2: i'm doneRocinante2: lmao

Guttenburg wrote:Too early to make a call on his redraft value? Former number 1, 25 years old..man, how doesn't he go by round 3?

Well, at this point I wouldn't take him before the 10th round. So much of his value is tied to RBI and AVG. RBI are mostly team-dependent (especially significant because his Twins aren't exactly an offensive powerhouse) and AVG is prone to variability. He has only 13 HR and 4 SB which is good for a rather unimpressive 22/7 full season pace. He's striking out a lot less but his walk rate is still garbage. Change the RBI to a more reasonable number and he's about as valuable as Brennan Boesch. Granted, Delmon was a #1 pick, but he's been a poorly performing full-time major leaguer for 3+ years. There is the upside but there's also the downside that he reverts to pre-2010 Delmon.

He's hitting somewhere in the midst of Span, Mauer, Morneau, cuddyer and Kubel next season. All of these guys have good OBP's or can be expected to since a couple are struggling so the RBI chances will be there. But I agree with you on where to draft Delmon. I'm concerned that pitchers are going to adjust and further expand his strike zone. He's shown that he will swing at anything so why throw it close to the plate?

Guttenburg wrote:Too early to make a call on his redraft value? Former number 1, 25 years old..man, how doesn't he go by round 3?

Well, at this point I wouldn't take him before the 10th round. So much of his value is tied to RBI and AVG. RBI are mostly team-dependent (especially significant because his Twins aren't exactly an offensive powerhouse) and AVG is prone to variability. He has only 13 HR and 4 SB which is good for a rather unimpressive 22/7 full season pace. He's striking out a lot less but his walk rate is still garbage. Change the RBI to a more reasonable number and he's about as valuable as Brennan Boesch. Granted, Delmon was a #1 pick, but he's been a poorly performing full-time major leaguer for 3+ years. There is the upside but there's also the downside that he reverts to pre-2010 Delmon.

He's hitting somewhere in the midst of Span, Mauer, Morneau, cuddyer and Kubel next season. All of these guys have good OBP's or can be expected to since a couple are struggling so the RBI chances will be there. But I agree with you on where to draft Delmon. I'm concerned that pitchers are going to adjust and further expand his strike zone. He's shown that he will swing at anything so why throw it close to the plate?

Most of the guys you mentioned have OBPs around .345. Morneau's OBP will decrease and Mauer's will increase so they're good for about .390 between them. MLB average is like .330 so they're definitely pretty good, but the run-scoring environment the other hitters produce is closer to the 90-100 RBI range than the 130 RBI pace Delmon is currently on. In fact, no lineup in the last 8 years would be likely to produce a 115+ RBI season out of a Delmon-type hitter.

Rocinante2: you knowRocinante2: its easy to dismiss the orioles as a bad teamofanrex: go onRocinante2: i'm doneRocinante2: lmao