Why Melbourne can win the 2017 AFL premiership

If you'd suggested three months ago that Melbourne was capable of winning the 2017 premiership, you'd have needed your head read. Now, it doesn't seem even vaguely outlandish.

Sure, circumstances, via the most even AFL season in history, suit such a seemingly big call. But the way the Demons are going about their business right now make it more than feasible regardless of the strengths or weaknesses of their opposition.

And if you're into omens, you should be scrambling to jump on what's becoming a large bandwagon.

Saturday night's amazing win over West Coast in Perth was the first time Melbourne had won four games in a row since 2006, the last time the Demons appeared in a finals series. The victory completed an Adelaide and Perth road double. Melbourne haven't done that since 2000, the last year they reached a grand final.

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Christian Petracca, celebrating after beating the Eagles, is one of a long list of versatile midfielders and utility players at the Demons.Credit:Getty Images

Premierships? The Western Bulldogs' stunning triumph last year shattered any cynicism about the possibility of football fairytales. It also left Melbourne, flagless since 1964, as the established former VFL club with the longest premiership drought. Two breakings of the big dry in two years? Why not?

But the similarities between the Bulldogs of 2016 and Demons of today go beyond romance. Indeed, Melbourne might actually have a little more going for them.

Like Luke Beveridge's team last year, Simon Goodwin's outfit has already ticked plenty of boxes on the resilience front, Saturday night perhaps the best effort yet on that score.

The Demons' first win in Perth for 13 years and in 18 attempts came despite a second consecutive six-day break and against an opponent coming off a good win. Despite that, it was Melbourne that finished far stronger, making West Coast pay after Lewis Jetta had missed a chance to put the Eagles 21 points up with just eight minutes left on the clock.

It was a win which came despite the absence of three critical players in co-captain Nathan Jones, Jack Watts and spearhead Jesse Hogan, the first pair missing just as Melbourne regained ruckman Max Gawn, whom they'd been without since round three, losing back-up Jake Spencer a fortnight later.

Somehow, despite conceding the ruck every week since, they've more than held their own, memorably smashing the Crows in Adelaide, incredibly still winning both the clearance and contested possession count on a night Adelaide ruckman Sam Jacobs had a near-record 74 hit-outs.

That was a huge tick for Melbourne's midfield brigade, which runs deep. On Saturday night, even without Jones' hardness and his co-skipper Jack Viney carrying a shoulder injury, they won the clearances and contested ball, something of which they've been making a habit.

Going into this round, Melbourne were ranked No. 1 on the differentials for disposals, No.3 for contested ball and No.4 for clearances.

Yet despite being the AFL's most prolific ball-winning team, only Clayton Oliver stands among the competition's top 30 possession-getters. It's the same for clearances, Oliver and Viney the only Demons among the top 60.

No fewer than nine Melbourne players currently average more than 20 disposals per game, a bigger spread than any of the teams above them on the ladder.

That evenness was borne out against the Eagles when West Coast Adam Simpson attempted to lock down on both Christian Petracca and Oliver only to have Viney cut loose. Even then, Oliver and Petracca still managed 28 and 21 disposals respectively.

But where the Demons are perhaps even better-equipped than the Western Bulldogs last year is in the balance of offence and defence. Goodwin's team is tough. But it also takes the game on. Melbourne are No.1 for uncontested possession on the differentials, and No.1 for playing on from the mark.

Last year, the Dogs were able to win a premiership despite having scored only the 12th most points in the competition. Melbourne right now are top four for points scored, averaging nearly three goals per game more than the Dogs of last season despite having had their leading goalkicker of last year in the line-up on just four occasions.

Which brings us to another big tick for the Demons. Versatility. There's enough of a ground-level midfield army for Goodwin to be able to play several, like Petracca, or Jake Melksham, forward or back for extended periods.

It was regular defender Tom McDonald and jack-of-all trades Cam Pedersen who were most critical in the last 10 minutes on Saturday night. And with Gawn now back in the ruck and Hogan back up forward perhaps as early as next week, Goodwin has even more flexibility up his sleeve with that big pair.

Melbourne have another huge challenge this week, a third six-day break in a row, coming up against an opponent in Sydney now back in the eight and having won six of their past seven games. The Demons have beaten the Swans just once in their past 12 meetings.

But Melbourne in 2017 just keep breaking the hoodoos and bowling over the obstacles. In this crazy season, with the possibility of a first premiership in 53 years now far more than a pipedream, what's one more?

AND WHILE I'M AT IT

Has there been a better home-and-away round since the famous final weekend of the 1987 premiership season?

More upsets, and no fewer than four games decided by less than a kick, each of them chock full of drama and controversy.

Siren song: Sam Frost celebrates the Demons drought-breaking win out west over the Eagles.Credit:Daniel Carson/AFL Media

You want thrillers this season? You've got them. Stats man Josh Kay observed on Saturday night that we'd had 16 games this season decided by margins of between one and three points, already a lot more than any year since 2007. And that's with 90 games still to go.

Neither is what used to be called a comfortable lead seemingly safe anymore. Ask Essendon, which on Friday night managed to blow a 19-point margin with around three minutes left on the clock. Ditto the Eagles on Saturday, who should have been 21 points up with under eight minutes left.

Seven times already this season, teams have let slip leads of 30 points or more. Richmond have been responsible for three of those, at least one reason the Tigers' scrappy 26-point win over Carlton on Sunday will have pleased coach Damien Hardwick once his side took charge in general play during the second quarter.

It's making cool heads in a crisis at more of a premium than ever before. And the rehearsing of such scenarios on the training track as important as they've ever been. "We spend a fair bit of time on our late-game scenarios, we reminded our group and went through them numerous times over the last month," Melbourne coach Simon Goodwin said after that heroic win over West Coast. "I think that's the way the competition is at the moment, it's so close and so tight that it's coming down to the last few minutes." You'd hope Essendon couldn't make as many blunders in the final 180-odd seconds of a close game again even if they tried.

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The Western Bulldogs, on the other hand, are a pretty good bet in such situations, as they proved again in the last minute against North Melbourne. After the Roos' Shaun Higgins had tied the scores with 88 seconds left on the clock, the Dogs' Matt Suckling took the kick-in, identifying and finding a big target in Jack Redpath mismatched for height against Aaron Mullett.

Redpath cleverly chipped wide out to Lachie Hunter, who managed to find Jake Stringer on the lead in a pocket. Three possessions end-to-end for what proved the winning score, the Dogs not only giving themselves a chance to win but minimising the chances of a loss by skirting the safety of the boundary line. Well coached, well drilled the Bulldogs have now won eight of their last 11 games decided by single-figure margins. This nail-biting season, that's a talent that's proving particularly handy.

Rohan Connolly, a senior football writer for The Age and radio broadcaster with sports radio station 1116 SEN, has been covering the game since 1983. A multi-AFL Media Association award-winner known for his passion and love of the game, he analyses the AFL for the newspaper and contributes a blog and weekly video, "Footy Fix", for The Age's football website, Real Footy.