Has anybody else heard of Democrats wanting to roll back the tax reforms/cuts?

Well the democrats didn't say anything but I think you'll raise taxes. You have 104% debt to GDP and you're projected to run a 5.7% deficit at full employment. Btw I think your deficit will be higher than that. It's mathematically impossible impossible for the US to maintain the status quo.

So you have a few choices: raise taxes, cut social security, cut medicare, or cut military. You won't cut social security or medicare no matter the contents of Paul Ryan's wet dreams. That's because the beneficiaries of those programs show up to vote and no matter how much Fox News they watch they seem to like those programs a lot!

Maybe you could get away with cutting military. Even though they tend to be big donors it's been done before. But then tax hikes happened before as well. So if I had to bet I'd bet on a bullshit storm followed by tax hikes. ]]>
http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/politics/gun-control-a-trap-for-trump/?action=postThu, 22 Feb 2018 06:28:54 GMThttp://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/politics/gun-control-a-trap-for-trump/msg325069/#msg325069Re: UBNT - Ubiquiti Networkshttp://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/ubnt-ubiquiti-networks/msg325068/#msg325068
They have historically not done a lot of business in China. TPLink cloned an older version of UniFi, so it's probably preferred for people who want to spend less money and don't mind using what amounts to state-sponsored networking hardware. Last quarter they saw a big jump in Asia revenues, which might be related to Tencent's recent adoption of UniFi.

I would not call Ubiquiti extremely sophisticated. It's mostly a bunch of engineers. They make lots of elementary errors on their less-successful product lines which can probably be traced back to their lack of oversight. Confusing user sessions with user count was unfortunately par for the course.]]>
http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/ubnt-ubiquiti-networks/?action=postThu, 22 Feb 2018 06:05:14 GMThttp://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/ubnt-ubiquiti-networks/msg325068/#msg325068Re: Gun Control, a TRAP for Trump?http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/politics/gun-control-a-trap-for-trump/msg325067/#msg325067
But maybe you're wrong and voters do care. Voters in Connecticut care. But it's not like Florida is an electorally important state where small changes in electorate can make a big difference.

Or maybe for now you can keep getting away with sending thoughts and prayers. But you have a new category of single issue voters developing. The ones that would like for them, their kids, and loved ones to not be shot up. Maybe that group is not big enough yet... but it's growing every day. Maybe that group won't be large enough in time to vote out the current mummies in congress (so they're safe/right in their sociopathic thinking) but that day will come. Your kid/brother/sister taking 2 in the chest tends to leave a lasting impression.]]>
http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/politics/gun-control-a-trap-for-trump/?action=postThu, 22 Feb 2018 05:56:53 GMThttp://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/politics/gun-control-a-trap-for-trump/msg325067/#msg325067Re: UBNT - Ubiquiti Networkshttp://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/ubnt-ubiquiti-networks/msg325066/#msg325066

I am long UBNT, but am selling $70 covered calls. I have near-term concerns; mostly I don't think UBNT will hit its FY2018 mid-point revenue guidance. I rarely mind exiting such a volatile stock at an all-time high. Who knows what'll happen with such a high short interest though?

The trouble with building a case based on unusual incidents is that this is an unusual company. You'll find lots smoke regardless of whether or not fire exists. This is especially true when looking at South American distributors, who are necessarily shady. I wouldn't trust anything Flytec self-reports, for obvious reasons. I wouldn't be surprised if Flytec Inc. did $3.3M in 2011, but I'm fairly certain Flytec SA did far more.

I have little interest in Flytec because they do not expose any data I can scrape. However they've been an UBNT distributor for years, and it'd seem fairly safe to trust them to keep paying their bills. Corruption is simply a fact of life in many foreign countries, and does not necessarily indicate a problem for the supplier.

In the latest 10-Q I'm fairly certain "Customer C" is Ingram Micro. This means Flytec could have a maximum A/R contribution of 11%. Since South America was 13% of revenues, I highly doubt Flytec was more than 6%.

Frankly I think the fraud shorts are asking the wrong questions. Do they really think KPMG and Wells Fargo are being fooled? After Andrew Left more or less claimed UBNT's cash horde is fake on CNBC?

The right questions are all R&D related and perhaps outside the short's areas of expertise. I worry neither LTU or AirMax AC seem to have MU-MIMO APs in their pipeline. I worry LTU won't be all it's hyped up to be, and the future of fixed outdoor wireless may actually be standards-compliant LTE gear. I worry the new uFiber products won't catch on. There's tons of optionality in UBNT, but also quite a bit of risk. Fortunately with a little technical knowledge it's easy to figure out how their products will do long before the market does.

I would add that, after UBNT was defrauded out of almost $50 million, they retained FTI Consulting "to provide an Interim Chief Accounting Officer and other resources" (quote is from the FY 2015 10-K). So whoever inside Ubiquiti is pulling off this fraud also managed to hoodwink FTI Senior Managing Director (and former UBNT Interim CAO) Mark Spragg.

Schwab711, you are clearly skeptical of Ubiquiti. What's the short case as you see it? What aspect of the company or its operations is fraudulent?

Disclosure: While I've been long UBNT in the past, I don't currently have a position.

Just to nitpick before half-answering, I really don't want to attach myself to the word fraud without also adding voluminous support for the claim. The liability with an unsubstantiated allegation is bigger than my pocketbook. I'm definitely not calling UBNT a fraud right now. I am very skeptical.

UBNT is in some ways more of a blackbox than Knight Capital or Citi because no one other than Pera and the HK auditor will ever see what backs those Chinese numbers. I think the market sees UBNT as simple and folksy, but that couldn't be further from the truth. UBNT is an extremely sophisticated operation. Pera bothers me in that sense because the corporate operations doesn't match his public persona. I'll have a better answer soon.]]>
http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/ubnt-ubiquiti-networks/?action=postThu, 22 Feb 2018 05:19:12 GMThttp://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/ubnt-ubiquiti-networks/msg325066/#msg325066Re: Gun Control, a TRAP for Trump?http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/politics/gun-control-a-trap-for-trump/msg325065/#msg325065

He didnít expect to win the last election, and he certainly donít plan on to win in the next one. Why he care? He is more care about opening new trump hotels in India.

But itís a valid concern for GOPs nov election. If they lose, the tax cuts could very well be rolled back.

I heard somewhere today that if the GOP loses control of the House & Senate, then there is a good chance that Trump will face impeachment AND the tax cuts will cancelled/rolled back.

If that comes to pass, I think the USA will be thrown into chaos. The market will go down, and go down BIGLY. A lot of businesses are depending on these tax cuts. If those go, the economy is going to contract and unemployment would surge.

Of course, maybe that is what is wanted?

Sure. But I thought market would crash if trump is elected and I was wrong. Anyway, I would rather mkt go down in the short term than having Putin decide whoís my president and having NRA commit mass murders

I thought the tax reform/reduction was a good thing. Here in Michigan, unemployment is down, businesses are expanding, and there is a cautious sense of economic optimism. Of course, Michigan is frequently WELL behind the rest of the nation.

I think though if the tax reductions are rolled back OR are effective for only one year, it will result in capital spending going down SUBSTANTIALLY. If that happens, profits are down, unemployment is up...and so on.

I think gun control, Russian meddling, and tax reform are 3 different things, for the most part.