BTC/USD price forecast

I look back the main reasons that drove the price up and down. Understand the past will help us to forecast the future.
It is clear that the CBOE Future and CME Future and intensive media coverage are the reasons that made the price surge in Q4.
Post CME , we had a series of bad news relating to regulation, the fight between BTC and BCH, rising of altcoins CBOE Future setllement which drove down the price of BTC .
The moving average 50 was the support for uptrend now it acts like the main resistant for current down trend.
The dash green light is the support line of BTC price before the hype, I doubt it is able the mining cost for BTC . It is difficult for BTC price to go under this line.
We had the price drop dramatically after China Ban and now recovering, Elliot Wave seem appropriately to be use to forecast the price of this phase.
I anticipate another dip 12345 that will meet the green line and then ABC recovering at time of Lunar new Year.
After this, the BITFINEX:BTCUSD will be rising with the good news and happy spirit of post Chinese new year season.