Are the Liberals already laying the groundwork for a coalition?

Political junkies might want to set their PVRs to record the Danish TV series Borgen, running on TVO this summer. It’s a taut political drama that actually serves pretty well as playbook for the kind of political games we could be looking at after the Oct. 19 election.

Borgen’s plot revolves around the tough choices, compromises and backroom deals Danish politicians have to make after voters cut the governing party down to size and elect a parliament where no one bloc or faction has a majority. Centrist parties manage to put together a new coalition government in which alliances are constantly shifting. An untested prime minister soon learns campaigning is a lot more fun than putting together a cabinet and writing a budget that can attract and hold a slim majority.

Canadian political operatives of all varieties may well find Borgen an inspiration as they consider the possibility that voters on Oct. 19 will take the governing Conservatives down a peg — or two, or more — and produce a minority Parliament.

Coalition governments are a fact of life in many European countries. Voters there aren’t spooked by the idea. But the thought of a coalition must scare the hell out of Prime Minister Stephen Harper.

He knows that in a minority Parliament he would be toast — even if his Conservatives managed to hold on to the largest number of seats. Many in his own party would be pushing for a leadership change.

The Liberals and New Democrats — and maybe even some of the Tory cabinet ministers who have been decamping of late — sense that Canadian voters this summer are thirsty for change. But there can’t be political change with Harper anywhere in the equation.

What party would be foolish enough to prop up a minority Conservative government? Voters would march on Stornoway carrying pitchforks and torches if any leader of the Official Opposition — Liberal or NDP — hinted he might prop Harper up.

Likewise, the leader of any third-place party that entered a formal Tory-led coalition, even if Harper offered one, should know he would pay a terrible price with voters. Consider the walloping the U.K.’s Liberal Democrat Leader Nick Clegg took in the last British election for joining a coalition with David Cameron’s Tories.

Harper will suggest that a NDP-Liberal coalition will be as scary and evil as Rosemary’s Baby, and the only way to save Canada is to kill the demon in the cradle by electing a Tory majority.

And if he’s politically astute, Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau will keep his mouth shut between now and Oct. 19 about a possible coalition with the NDP. Earlier this year, NDP Leader Tom Mulcair was able to muse about some kind of a post-election, cross-party co-operation agreement. But now that the New Democrats can see the possibility of actually forming a government, Mulcair will be far more circumspect until the polls close.

Harper, on the other hand, is likely to be the only party leader talking about coalitions … badmouthing them. He’ll suggest that a NDP-Liberal coalition will be as scary and evil as Rosemary’s Baby, and the only way to save Canada is to kill the demon in the cradle by electing a Tory majority.

Now, a lot can change between now and Oct. 19. Party leaders can fizzle and fail to launch on the campaign trail. Or they might crash and burn in debates. And a majority government could still emerge on election night. But as things stand now it’s not too soon for those of us watching from the sidelines to muse aloud about the Borgen scenario.

You can bet that clever people at Liberal headquarters had the possibility of a coalition in mind as they put together the 32-point platform Trudeau released this week. Some of this stuff — the promise to restore door-to-door mail delivery, for example — sounds pretty good to postal unions and could have been clipped from the NDP policy book.

The NDP and the Liberals could work together on a number of democratic reform proposals at the very start of a new Parliament. These could include stronger access-to-information laws, greater transparency with parliamentary expenses, better parliamentary review of national security agencies, and a curb on government advertising that is tinged by partisanship, enforceable by an independent commissioner.

Both the Liberals and the NDP want reform of the first-past-the-post voting system. The public is less enthusiastic and may want a test-drive before junking the current system. The NDP and Liberals could agree to implement proportional representation for one election only, promising a full parliamentary review and maybe even a national referendum before making PR permanent.

Senate reform would be tougher; public expectations would be high. The endless scandals plaguing the Senate will hurt Harper in this election with swing voters. But Mulcair’s plan to abolish the Senate outright is constitutionally impossible, at least in the short term.

Working in concert, the NDP and Liberals could find creative ways to make Senate appointments more democratic, transparent and non-partisan. The coalition could curtail the Senate’s power to amend or defeat bills coming from the Commons, and cut financial allocations for Senate operations to the bone. No more airfare to P.E.I. No more cabs from Kanata.

How long could a NDP-Liberal coalition or informal alliance hold itself together and continue to produce good legislation and sound government? Nobody knows. But in Denmark, the Borgen series ran three years.

Jeff Sallot is one of Canada’s most experienced and respected political writers. A graduate of the Kent State University journalism school, he shared a Pulitzer Prize with colleagues at The Akron Beacon-Journal for his eyewitness coverage of the massacre of four Kent State students by the Ohio National Guard during an anti-war demonstration. He worked for The Globe and Mail for more than three decades, much of the time as a political journalist based in Ottawa. He started his career in political journalism at The Toronto Star when Pierre Trudeau was prime minister. He taught journalism at Carleton University for seven years until he retired in 2014.

The views, opinions and positions expressed by all iPolitics columnists and contributors are the author’s alone. They do not inherently or expressly reflect the views, opinions and/or positions of iPolitics.

14 comments on “Are the Liberals already laying the groundwork for a coalition?”

If a coalition is the ‘only’ answer to saving Canada from more Harper then it must be done. If a coalition isn’t created to save Canada then the two leaders, Trudeau and Mulcair are no different than the power hungry, secretive, distainful person presently in the PM seat right now. Canadians deserve change. We have been punished enough under this government. It is time for a break and some calm and honest Democracy.

Coalitions are also just a flavour of minority government. Canadians are very familiar with this form of government, both at the federal and provincial level. It was the Harper party machine that suddenly, and most creatively, made this concept “illegal”.

With PR in the cards for Canada I am hopeful that the coalition would be a Progressive Con/ Liberal coalition. With Harper gone a leader like Chong, James Moore or Rajotte could work with the Liberals to really get the economy rolling. If Canadians want an example of this look at BCs provincial government. Our economy is rolling, diverse and our budget is balanced. Our social safety net is strong and improving. We have put restrictions on wage increases for teachers and other over paid public servants.

The Progressive Conservatives are no more federally. They’re gone. James Moore is also gone and so is James Rajotte.

Your economy has the highest percentage of low paying service sector jobs in Canada and your “strong and improving” social safety net is mighty expensive for those low wage workers. A family of 3 trying to exist on $30,001.00 per year has to pay a $144.00 per month health care premium. BC will be only one of two provinces left having a health care premium after Alberta eliminates theirs, and BC’s premium is wildly expensive.

Christy Clark’s personal popularity is at 33%, making her the second most unpopular premier in Canada. You can have Crusty Clark.

$144 for a family of three is a good deal in my opinion. BC produces film and TV, natural gas, lumber, high tech jobs, transportation and tourism. Lots happening here and no manufacturing jobs leaving to Mexico. Competitive corp tax rate, and Vancouver is the most happening city in Canada. If you are educated, competitive and not afraid to work it’s the best province in Canada. Are provincial gov has put a lid on over paid public servants, and created a climate where investors want to put their money into BC. She is making it virtually impossible for tar sands to come threw BC and our environmental standards continue to inch up. We don’t need hand outs from other Canadians and 1 million people will be moving here in the next decade. That’s a pretty good indication of what people think about BC.

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Stay focused on the national goal :
Send a message that you REJECT the Harper-Reform Party’s C-51 police state.
Vote strategically.
Vote the Harper-Reform Party out of official party status in 2015.
If the C51-Quisling Liberals are crushed under our feet at the same time, so much the better.
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A Liberal-NDP coalition needs to be formed before the elections or the Cons are going to get in through vote splitting (again!). Too late to form coalitions if the Cons form a Majority. The Dion-Layton coalition threat had Harper proroguing his pants. That tells you how terrified he is of the idea, which makes me think it’s a good one.