Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance.
Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors -
many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2008.
ZiPS is projecting equivalent production - a .240 ZiPS projection may end up
being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play
is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting
the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake.
This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in
the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.49 ERA and the NL having a 4.40 ERA.

Reader Comments and Retorts

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Peavy's pessimistic projection is pretty damn sweet. Also, I noticed that there are about 76 pitchers on the list before you get to one with an ERA projected to be above 5, and that isn't just the park.

Dan, the Hoffman projection is way off. It appears likely (from his home-road splits and his left-right splits) that the best he can hope to be is adequate.

What the Padres did this year is mask his decline by pitching him disproportionately at PETCO. Any projection system is going to have a tough time with a 40 year old who throws 35 innings in a great pitching environment and 22 innings in a neutral one. This is a case where manual adjustments need to be made.

But if they keep doing that, it should be right-ish, no? The thing would be if they didn't do that on purpose (35/22 might be random, particularly when you consider they won more home games) and then he had a larger share of IP in hitter's parks.

Dan, just curious about Scott Hairston, (of course). Last year ZIPS had him at 856 OPS, and he posted a 765. Other than ballpark, what are the factors that makes ZIPS project such a dismal performance from him in 2008, (722 OPS) ?

Despite haveing close to legue average line drive percentage he had a below legue avg BABIP. I remember during the Orioles series, he was robbed of a homerun by Patterson, and then a double, and Melvin Mora robbed him TWICE on shots down the line. He lost 10 extra bases vs. the Orioles in June alone. I remember calculating at the time that if those robberies not occured, it would have added 100 points to his OPS and he never would have been traded.

If they give the guy 400-500 PA, I would bet a fair sum he will have a higher OPS than 722

At one point last winter, I accidentally erased Tucson's 2006 HR park factor and my spreadsheet as a result reported a 3-year weighted HR factor of 64 as a result. I had to do a bunch of Arizona players over again and while I thought I had fixed everyone, I happened to re-check Hairston's projection over the summer and saw that I had never fixed him. I double-checked all the other Diamondbacks and everyone else's was correct.

What the Padres did this year is mask his decline by pitching him disproportionately at PETCO. Any projection system is going to have a tough time with a 40 year old who throws 35 innings in a great pitching environment and 22 innings in a neutral one. This is a case where manual adjustments need to be made.

The split isn't quite that severe because he faced a lot more batters per inning away than he did at home. All in all, it was 9% more BF at home and 9% more on the road.

Also, the ERA splits are exaggerated. While the home/road ERA split is a massive 1.80/4.84, the home/road DIPS ERA split was 3.11/3.32, which is actually slightly smaller than the normal Petco/Road split!

Yeah. Actually, recalling the Randy Johnson discussion of last year and looking at Hoffman's and Maddux's projections for this year, it probably has more to do with the projections for 40+ year old great career pitchers. Hoffman's age 40 K rate (7.25/9IP) is projected to be higher than his combined age 38 and 39 K rate (7.03/9IP). Maddux's age 42 ERA+ is projected to be better than his age 39-41 ERA+. I don't know why this happens, but probably it is because some weight is attached to earlier performance.

In Hoffman's particular case, there are a number of objective indicators of significant decline, from K rate to platoon splits to intentional walk rate. Opposing managers will catch on, and pinch-hit with left-handed hitters a little more, and like Gossage did at the end, Hoffman is going to struggle to be better than a league average reliever.

Turns out Ensberg is just short of FA status. Wonder if the Pads will even offer him arbitration? He doesn't seem to fit into their plans and paying $5 million for insurance seems a bit high for the Pads.

If Hoffman is always brought in for a save situation, his IP splits aren't surprising. They won more games at home. Since Petco is a low scoring park, you will have a higher ptg of save opportunities as most games will be separated by 3 runs or less.

It was a concern, that's why they got Barret, although, he wasn't much of a difference maker in that regard. But watching about 80% of the games, I saw runners take HUGE jumps on the pitchers a lot of times, running leads sometimes; the Padres pitchers as a whole weren't good at keeping the runners close to the bag.

I'm looking forward to see if they're looking to better their keep-the-runner-close-to-the-bag skill.

For anyone who has watched him: what the hell happened to Marcus Giles? That 2008 projection is very brutal, considering what he did at ages 25-27-goes from an up and coming star to a complete washout in 2 years.

Even if the Padres staff isn't much at holding runners, the amazing 121-for-131 baserunners did in stolen bases against Bard is a huge concern.

If you haven't seen the Padres staff "attempt" to hold runners, it's difficult to imagine how bad they are at it. Chris Young and Greg Maddux might as well never work out of the stretch. Base stealers are 85-for-89 against Young alone over the past two years; they've stolen successfully in 46 straight attempts dating back to September 27, 2006. There isn't a catcher alive that has a chance with him on the mound.