Thursday, October 1, 2015

No, Donald Trump isn't going to Win Wisoconsin

With his usual over the top brash style, Trump is bragging about how he is on top of the latest poll in Wisconsin. But is he really? Are the polls actually showing that he would win the primary on April 5th? Most of the candidates included in the poll will have dropped out by then (my guess is Trump will be one of them and I think he should take Dan Henninger's advice and drop out now while he is ahead) so it's important to look at both first and second choices. Yes, Trump is leading in terms of number of people who say he is their first choice, but almost nobody views him as their second choice. His base is pretty much his ceiling.

Based on this poll I think it is far more likely for Rubio or Fiorina (if she is able to fundraise and build an organization in the next 3 months) to win the state than Trump (I don't think Carson has staying power either).