2017 MLS Interconference Play – Week 22 August 7

Week 22 – 3 Games
East Record 1-1-1
At Home 1-0-0
On Road 0-1-1
Goal Differential +1
East Points 4
West Points 4

Season To Date
East Record 35-27-24
At Home 27-5-8 (40)
On Road 8-22-16 (46)
Goal Differential +26
East Points 129
West Points 105

When comparing East and West, a certain theory keeps coming up that the best of the weaker conference is even weaker than they appear because they have an opportunity to beat up on the worst teams in the league (who are in their conference) by playing them more often. At the end of last year I dug deep into the stats during the off-season, then got distracted and never wrote it up, but from memory and some quick scanning:

Last year every non-playoff team in the East had a winning record at home but were road fiascos. So playing them 2x Home and Away is less favorable than playing then 1x at home, but better than 1x on the road. Then, most West teams had a mixed H/A schedule against the worst of the East combined, so on the whole it evened out. The West this year is a more muddy situation, but let’s see how it looks at year end.

Causation is tricky: Does DC have the worst record in MLS right now because it has to play the best 3 teams in the league multiple times, or are the top 3 teams in MLS in the East because they get to play DC multiple times? Then look at NYCFC’s record against DC and it gets even less clear.

FWIW, the non-playoff teams in the East last year had a winning record against the non-playoff West even though the non playoff West had a better record overall and the West beat the East overall head to head.

At the moment, the PPG of the East playoff teams exceeds that of the West playoff teams by 0.16. The PPG of the East non-playoff teams exceeds that of the West counterparts only by 0.08. Which seems to indicate that the gap between the conferences is bigger at the top than the bottom, but what does that prove about strength of schedule?