Experienced Report on Assessing and Evaluating
Change Impact Analysis Through a Framework and Associated Models

Obeten O. Ekabua and Matthew O. Adigun
Centre of Excellence for Mobile e-Services for Development
Department of Computer Science
University of Zululand
KwaDlangezwa, 3886 South Africa

In our evolving computing environment with heterogenously distributed information
systems, products are continuously modified and changed. During this process a
change to one part will, in most cases, results in changes to other parts. Therefore, in design
and redesign for customization, predicting this change presents a significant challenge.
Changes are required to fix faults or to improve or update products. This paper
reports on the development of a change impact analysis factor adaptation model, a fault
and failure assumption model and the implementation of a generic change propagation
framework for evaluating and assessing utility service provisioning in a Grid service environment.
While implementing the framework, data was collected for a period of 3 years
which helped in predicting an immediate year. The obtained results from our pre- diction
shows the framework, its associated models and Bayesian statistics as satisfying the criteria
for a significant prediction accuracy in evaluating and assessing the effect of a
change of service in a grid environment when compared to an unreported regression
method.