Trends vs Chaos

May 21, 2008

UBS-betrayed by its own people

There is a good joke that circulates among financiers: 1 year ago US banks sold rubbish debt to European banks. Is it good? I guess not…especially if you ask a guy from UBS. UBS’ file? Quite easy to review at this moment:

Past dreams: to make UBS the No. 1 investment bank in the world, while being No. 1 bank in wealth management

Current facts: in the nine months ended on March 31, UBS lost $24.3 billion (more than any other bank caught in the worldwide credit crunch), UBS shares down 56 percent in 12 months ended on May 16, 5500 people to be slashed, New York based municipal bond department closed, clients pulled a net 12.8 billion francs from UBS's asset and wealth management units in the quarter ended on March 31…

UBS is definitely passing through a bad moment. I would call it a coma. And when you’re in coma, there are only 2 prospects ahead: you either die, either wake up. As like most of the systems, it’s quite a difficult mission to accomplish by yourself, that is regeneration is not the rule, but the exception. Its clients are the only ones who can still do something for UBS, but UBS doesn’t seem to get their help with 12.8 billion francs pulled.

What surprises me most is the identity of these betraying clients: they are 90% Swiss guys pulling from l’Union des Banques Suisses... “I know that my money are not in danger, but I’m sick of these people who are playing with our money” says Sophie, a 30 years old woman from Geneva. More than disappointment, it’s fear: “ When I wanted to close my account, an employee proposed me to transform my money into a term deposit, so they wanted to lock my money for another two years. I became suspicious and I closed my account” says Claude, 38 years old. And the stories can continue. UBS lost money, and now it is losing clients. It lost complete life, and now it is losing medicine. How long is it going to last? Or, better said, is it going to last?