I would be careful about being too optimistic right now. The pace we are on has us finishing somewhere in the range of 68 wins. A slight improvement, but nothing to be overly proud of.

With that said, this is clearly a Yoan/ TA/ Rodon break out season. The only question is where do they take this? Is each about to take a modest step forward or is each going to turn into a superstar many of us wanted them to be?

Yoan had the ceiling. He is playing like it.

Eloy will be fine. If not this year, next. Yoan should be a lesson in patience. So should Timmy.

Any optimism now is about cornerstone pieces beginning to look spectacular, not about extrapolating wins for the season.

Exactly right. Wins and place finished this season are beside the point. The competitive roster is still a season or two away. Development of young players at all levels is the point of this season, and seeing them succeed at whatever level they are at is a cause for optimism.

So far, we have Moncada and Anderson and Rodon looking very good to great. Lopez and Jimenez and Giolito have shown flashes, and Cordell in short time as well.

That's a pretty successful season if maintained. And if they had a halfway decent pen, would likely be on a 6 game win streak and a 10-9 record. (I know - if wishes were fishes and all, but still....)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian26

Any optimism now is about cornerstone pieces beginning to look spectacular, not about extrapolating wins for the season.

Quote:

Originally Posted by FielderJones

Exactly right. Wins and place finished this season are beside the point. The competitive roster is still a season or two away. Development of young players at all levels is the point of this season, and seeing them succeed at whatever level they are at is a cause for optimism.

Yep, so far this year Anderson, Yoan, Rodon, Cease, and Robert have looked great in the early going. Madrigal is doing well too. Jimenez is showing flashes of his potential at the plate and looks like he's going to be a monster before long. That's a pretty solid core of our future team (plus Kopech). I'm eager to see if Lopez and/or Giolito can start showing some consistent success too. Lots of players to follow closely both on the 25-man and in the minors.

In my observation, players tend to improve at the major league level the longer they play there, so there must be some form of player development happening. He'd be rotting on the vine in the minors at this point.

In my observation, players tend to improve at the major league level the longer they play there, so there must be some form of player development happening. He'd be rotting on the vine in the minors at this point.

It depends on the player. Gordon Beckham hit .394 in the Arizona Fall League in 2008, the year he was drafted out of college as a Golden Spikes finalist, and hit .326 between Birmingham and Charlotte before the Sox brought him up in 2009. Sixty-four games into his major league career his was hitting over .300 before he hit what feels now like a decade-long slump for anyone who saw him at his peak in mid-August of his rookie year.

While pitchers are most often the players who can be accused at peaking at the beginning of their careers, there are plenty of hitters who look like they're going to be pretty good hitters who never really look as good as they looked at the beginning of their career. Henry Cotto, Jerome Walton and Dwight Smith immediately come to mind, maybe because they were Cubs.

When we look at Jimenez, we see the potential from his best trips to the plate. The two-home run game against the Yankees felt to Sox fans like his breakout game, but it turned out to be just one great game. He hasn't consistently been the same offensive force since. I'm confident that he'll develop, but at this point he still has a lot to prove. Moncada and Anderson look great, but they'll have to show me they can do what they're doing now after their next slump. Even for Robert, I don't expect there will be a straight line from minor league success, if not offensive dominance, to the presence of a 1972 Dick Allen in the White Sox lineup.

If I'm not as excited about the White Sox future as most, it has to do with the pitching, which has to be the foundation of any winning team. I don't know how Kopech will work against opposing hitters when he comes back. Rodon seems to be developing well and Giolito and Lopez seem to better pitchers with the Sox than they were with the Nationals, and they are showing more signs of consistency. Still, they don't appear close to being dependable starters in a winning rotation. (Defense would help, and the lack of priority the organization seems to put on defense is distressing). At Charlotte, Cease seems to be protected from failure. He's only had a few starts, but he never pitches more than five innings. It isn't just that they aren't stretching him out so that he can develop into a quality major league starter. The White Sox seem to be limiting hitters getting a good enough look at him to figure him out. In his second start against Norfolk, he got hit somewhat harder than his first. He's been pitching professionally since the Cubs signed him in 2015, mostly starting, and he shouldn't be limited to five innings, unless they are being extremely cautious with his development.

As far as coming to the majors and continue to develop with the experience goes, I see a lot of potential for that the pitching to go south.

In my observation, players tend to improve at the major league level the longer they play there, so there must be some form of player development happening. He'd be rotting on the vine in the minors at this point.

The question is not whether he should be down on the farm learning fundamentals now. The question is whether he was working on the fundamentals when he was down on the farm.

Quote:

Originally Posted by TDog

When we look at Jimenez, we see the potential from his best trips to the plate. The two-home run game against the Yankees felt to Sox fans like his breakout game, but it turned out to be just one great game. He hasn't consistently been the same offensive force since. I'm confident that he'll develop, but at this point he still has a lot to prove.

I am in total agreement with you. He’ll develop with the bat. Defensively he’s lost right now. He needs daily instruction. Is he working on his defense when he comes to the park? Is he getting daily instruction?

Quote:

Originally Posted by TDog

I'm not as excited about the White Sox future as most, it has to do with the pitching, which has to be the foundation of any winning team.

Your points on the staff current and projected are interesting. With regard to Rodon, he has to put together a consistent full season of work to even begin to judge his future. I agree with you on Kopech: he has no body of work so it is hard to get a picture of what type of starter he may be. I was a little surprised about your comments about Cease being handled with care. Giolito and Lopez must find some consistency moving forward.

Let’s see what improvement, if any, the staff shows in the next twenty games.

__________________
“There were a few hard rules, but everybody was unique, and he understood that. George’s great strength was he didn’t overcoach. There’s no place for panic on the mound.” - Jim Palmer on George Bamberger “Arms and the man,” Sports Illustrated, April 19, 2004

... I was a little surprised about your comments about Cease being handled with care. ...

On one hand, you look at Cease's numbers at Charlotte, and you conclude he's pretty close to lights out. On the other, his starts are curious because he isn't pitching past the fifth. It doesn't seem to be a matter of pitch count, although Saturday night he threw more than 100 pitches without finishing the fifth. Assuming the organization has a reason for the way they are pitching Cease in Charlotte, he can't be considered close to being ready if he isn't going seven innings regularly in starts against AAA lineups even if it's a question of pitch count. It isn't simply a matter of limiting sample size. It's a matter of facing hitters at least three times in a start, which is something a strong major league starter should be able to do after the sixth.

On one hand, you look at Cease's numbers at Charlotte, and you conclude he's pretty close to lights out. On the other, his starts are curious because he isn't pitching past the fifth. It doesn't seem to be a matter of pitch count, although Saturday night he threw more than 100 pitches without finishing the fifth. Assuming the organization has a reason for the way they are pitching Cease in Charlotte, he can't be considered close to being ready if he isn't going seven innings regularly in starts against AAA lineups even if it's a question of pitch count. It isn't simply a matter of limiting sample size. It's a matter of facing hitters at least three times in a start, which is something a strong major league starter should be able to do after the sixth.

Except that doesn’t really happen anymore. The league averages were 5.4 IP and 88 pitches per start last year. There were almost as many starts with fewer than 80 pitches (1072) as there were with 100 pitches or more (1223).

__________________

Quote:

Originally Posted by Horsemaster Fred

This is the major leagues so get it how you live and let’s fight tomorrow.

Except that doesn’t really happen anymore. The league averages were 5.4 IP and 88 pitches per start last year. There were almost as many starts with fewer than 80 pitches (1072) as there were with 100 pitches or more (1223).

I'd imagine they are bringing Cease along slowly too. He hasn't really pitched that much in AAA so far and it's early in the season. He is probably going to pitch more innings this year than he ever has by a good margin because he'll be pitching for the Sox after the AAA season is over. I don't mind them going slow with him, letting him get good and stretched out and figure out all of his pitches before extending his innings. He's going to get plenty of reps this year regardless.

__________________Riding shotgun on the Sox bandwagon since before there was an Internet...

League averages figure in bad starts along with the good starts. The fewer innings your starting pitcher gives you, the more innings you need from your bullpen. If you want your bullpen to lose games, overworking it will accomplish that regardless of the money you spend.

If you are looking for a superior starting pitcher, which fans assume Cease will be, you should be counting on seven or more innings when he is on and generally six innings on his off days, with only a few bad starts bringing his average down. If you want Cease to be an average starting pitcher, there is nothing wrong with limiting his starts to six innings.

I understand the concept of bringing pitchers along slowly, but it's curious that he should be limited to five innings in games where he is pitching incredibly well seems to more protecting him from failure than developing him to be a major league pitcher. Even elite major league pitchers experience days of failure.

In any case, if the organization is bringing Cease along slowly, which is the most likely explanation, Cease doesn't appear to be close to major-league ready in the eyes of the White Sox.

League averages figure in bad starts along with the good starts. The fewer innings your starting pitcher gives you, the more innings you need from your bullpen. If you want your bullpen to lose games, overworking it will accomplish that regardless of the money you spend.

If you are looking for a superior starting pitcher, which fans assume Cease will be, you should be counting on seven or more innings when he is on and generally six innings on his off days, with only a few bad starts bringing his average down. If you want Cease to be an average starting pitcher, there is nothing wrong with limiting his starts to six innings.

I understand the concept of bringing pitchers along slowly, but it's curious that he should be limited to five innings in games where he is pitching incredibly well seems to more protecting him from failure than developing him to be a major league pitcher. Even elite major league pitchers experience days of failure.

In any case, if the organization is bringing Cease along slowly, which is the most likely explanation, Cease doesn't appear to be close to major-league ready in the eyes of the White Sox.

I think I read that Cease’s second start was cut short due to a rain delay. His other two outings were his first start of the year, and his last where he had some control issues.

It's nice to know that it's probably the weather and not the White Sox master plan that is limiting Cease's AAA development.

His development is being limited? Why? Because you say so? Because you have some completely irrational thought that starters are supposed to be going 7+ innings in every start? The most innings Cease has thrown in a year was last yer when he pitched 124 innings. If the Sox have plans to have him pitch on the big league club this year then only having him go 5-6 innings in each start makes sense. I'd imagine they want him to throw around 150 innings this year, so he's not going to be going deep in games in Charlotte if the goal is have him join the big league club in August.

His development is being limited? Why? Because you say so? Because you have some completely irrational thought that starters are supposed to be going 7+ innings in every start? The most innings Cease has thrown in a year was last yer when he pitched 124 innings. If the Sox have plans to have him pitch on the big league club this year then only having him go 5-6 innings in each start makes sense. I'd imagine they want him to throw around 150 innings this year, so he's not going to be going deep in games in Charlotte if the goal is have him join the big league club in August.

Cease will likely be up with the big league club at some point this season, but I don't think the Sox will let him pitch all the way through September. I could imagine a situation similar to Strasburg a few years ago, where they shut him down a month or so early. The obvious difference being that the Nats were World Series contenders that year, and that doesn't look likely for this Sox team. If they want to shut him down in mid-August or something, there won't be many complaints.