I have a question stated through the eye of metrics and I hope ownership sees it, as I hope to hear your opinion/response: Why is there a question regarding Nolan Arenado and his future in Colorado? Use a weighted metric that incorporates true value based on trackable stats (even while allowing for a variation due to Coors Field) and Nolan still comes up ahead of both Bryce Harper and Manny Machado.

Now a statement more than a question: why hasn’t this deal been done — especially when the average fan is smart enough to see the value of profit-based revenue, also and just wants to be rewarded for being a fan. He deserves the money and his character (especially when viewed against the other two) implies that the Rockies will only get even more from a strong showing of faith and loyalty! Pay Nolan!— JT Hall, Denver

JT, if it were only that simple!

First, let me say that I love your passion for the Rockies and Arenado. But there are a lot of elements at play here. I’m just going to list them and let you ponder.

1. Arenado must want to stay in Colorado rather than test free agency. Thus far, his message has been mixed. He says he loves playing for the Rockies, and I believe him. But he’s also indicated numerous times that his ultimate baseball goal is to play for a perennial contender.

This is what Arenado told me last winter:

“There is something to be said for being with an organization for your whole career, I definitely believe in that. I admired Todd (Helton) and I admired (Yankees icon) Derek Jeter; guys who stick with one team their whole career. So I have a lot of respect for what Todd did. But at the end of the day, I don’t want to be in Todd’s shoes where I only go to the playoffs twice in my career.”

2. Arenado is well aware that a huge contract – let’s say eight years at $30 million per year for $240 million — could very much limit what else the Rockies might be able to do financially. The Rockies are weighing this reality, too.

3. Arenado, who turns 28 on April 16, is older than either Harper or Machado, and that could be a factor in negotiations.

Listen, I’m a huge Arenado fan, both as a player and as a person, and I would love to see him become a Rockie for life. But the reality is that Arenado could be gone and playing in a major market in 2020 (or even 2019).

One more thing: Arenado is usually very open and available during the offseason. Not so this winter. He’s keeping a very low profile and has been reluctant to talk. I’m not sure what that means, other than the fact that he hates talking about contracts and money. However, it could also be an indication that negotiations between Arenado and the Rockies are heating up.

Greetings Patrick, as we look forward towards the inevitable payroll dynamics that will play a part in Nolan Arenado’s future with the Rox, I have a two-part question: Do you believe the team with take an aggressive approach towards the season to show commitment to winning, or will they be conservative in order to preserve the resources necessary to retain him (asked with the assumption he is as valuable to the future of the franchise as many believe he is?)— J. Thomas, Englewood

J. Thomas, I believe I answered much of your question with my previous answer. But I’ll add this: I don’t think the Rockies will be especially aggressive during what’s left of the offseason, in part because of the possibility of signing Arenado and in part because they believe in the young players in the system.

Hey Patrick, I noticed in the past mailbags fans are upset with Rockies ownership and Jeff Bridich for not signing Arenado to a long-term deal. Do you think fans forget it is on the players as well? They do have the right to become a free agents and listen to offers and play where they want as well. Would love your thoughts.— Jeff, Wellington

Jeff, see my comments above.

I saw a story about the Rockies maybe adding a player for this coming season, but there were some budget concerns. Where did the Rox wind up last year on salaries compared to other clubs? Where did they rank on attendance?— Kent Fonda, Denver

Kent, the Rockies are spending money more freely than they have in the past. Earlier in the offseason general manager Jeff Bridich said the club would follow a “responsible growth” plan. Exactly what that means remains to be seen.

Also, keep in mind that the Rockies’ payroll for 2019 could very well depend on the club’s plans to work out a lucrative, long-term deal with Arenado. Whether or not they are able to work out a deal now could well determine how much money the club is willing to spend.

As for your basic questions:

Colorado’ 2018 opening-day payroll was $136.9 million, a franchise high. Their payroll for their 40-man roster at the end of the season was $151.2 million, also a franchise high and ranking 15th in the majors.

The Rockies drew 3,015,880 fans to Coors Field in 2018, ranking seventh in the majors in home attendance with an average of 37,233 fans per game. It was the first time since 2001 that the Rockies drew more than 3 million fans.

We have two questions from Dave from Fort Collins

Question 1. I asked this during the season when Jon Gray was pitching well, but then he went downhill and the question didn’t get answered. Simply, would you include Gray in a deal for a top-of-the-rotation starter (think Noah Syndergaard or Corey Kluber). I realize there are other parts to such a deal, but the basic question is does a No. 1 starter give the Rockies enough of an upgrade to punt on Gray’s potential?

That is a really great question. Teams have asked about Gray in the past, in combination with some Colorado prospects. The deal was never good enough for the Rockies to pull off the trade.

As for your question about landing a pitcher like Snydergaard or Kluber, I would make that trade, because I think adding another really good pitcher could help the Rockies’ quest for a World Series. But, again, it would take more than Gray to land a high-profile pitcher.

And let me add that I think it’s way too early to give up on Gray. He still has an excellent chance to become a solid, dependable major-league pitcher.

Question 2. I am baffled as to why so many so-called baseball experts seem to think just about any player can make the switch to first base and perform in a competent manner. And this isn’t a slam at Bridich for the Ian Desmond and Daniel Murphy signings. Early on there was speculation the Yankees would sign Harper to play first base. Yankees GM Brian Cashman shot that down. Last year it was Jay Bruce playing first base. What’s behind the idea that it’s such an easy transition?— Dave, Fort Collins

Another good question. I think it’s fair to say that playing first base doesn’t require the overall athleticism of other positions, but it does take special skills that some players just don’t have. I think the Rockies have overlooked that.

Desmond, for instance, was good at moving forward on bunts, but I think he’s well below average around the bag. Given the greatness of Arenado and Trevor Story on the left side of the infield, you want a first baseman who can scoop tough throws – thus allowing Arenado and Story to make aggressive plays and throws. I don’t think Desmond is that guy. Will Murphy be better? I think so. But he’s no Todd Helton.

How has no one picked up DJ LeMahieu? He is a lunch pail guy who just comes to work every day and wins not to mention a Gold Glover who is a career .298 hitter.— Jack, Canon City

Jack, you would be hard pressed to find a bigger fan of LeMahieu than me. He’s a winning player, on the field and in the clubhouse. I think with just a slight adjustment in his swing, he’s capable of hitting 20-25 home runs in a season.

Anyway, I’m confident LeMahieu is going to land a good deal. I’m guessing it will be for three years. I hope he gets a big payday.

As to why he hasn’t been signed yet, I think it’s mostly a matter of the slow market. I think once Manny Machado and Bryce Harper finally land somewhere, the free-agent signings will heat up. I don’t think the fact that LeMahieu hasn’t signed yet is a reflection on his skills and reputation as much as it is a reflection of the current economic state of the game.

AAron Ontiveroz, The Denver Post

Manager Bud Black of the Colorado Rockies finalizes the lineup for a game against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Coors Field on Tuesday, Sept. 11, 2018.

There hasn’t been much talk of Bud Black this offseason. Do you think the Rockies will extend his contract this spring before the season starts?— Alex, Littleton

Alex, I wish I had a definitive answer for you, but I don’t. I’ve asked both Black and Bridich about the contract and received warm and fuzzy answers, but nothing concrete. In November, Bridich told me: “There’s a great appreciation for who Buddy is and what he’s done with us here… There are a lot of positive vibes all the way around.”

At the winter meetings, Black told me: “Well, I’m concerned about what’s going on at the present, right? I think that where we are as a team takes precedent over anything that might be happening with me. So that’s where my focus is. But I’m happy to hear that Jeff thinks there’s a good vibe. That’s a good thing.”

Bottom line: There is a mutual option for 2020 between the Rockies and Black, and I do think Black gets a contract extension, and I’m betting it will be announced during spring training. That’s my “educated guess.”

Anyway, Pollock is looking for a deal somewhere near the five years and $80 million Lorenzo Cain got from the Brewers last winter. So I don’t see Pollock playing for the Rockies. Plus, his injury history is a red flag for Colorado, especially given the wear and tear of playing home games at Coors Field. I don’t think it’s going to happen. I would rather see them make a play for a catcher.

I won’t soon forget Tony Wolters‘ game-winning hit in the wild card game. And I seem to remember that Chris Iannetta had a few big hits for us too. The growth of our starting pitching indicates they are owed some credit for their defense and game-calling as well. But with the availability of Yasmani Grandal, why haven’t the Rockies made more of an effort to sign him? He would be an immediate upgrade over our current options on offense, and even on a bad offensive day, he’d be an asset behind the plate. Plus, we wouldn’t have to give up any prospects to get him. Adding a solid offensive and defensive catcher would seem to be a move that could help us finally win the division. So what are the Rockies waiting for?— Adam, Westminster

Adam, I’m not knocking you, but I don’t think a lot of fans understand the dynamics at play during the offseason. There is a domino effect at play here, and it begins with some of the top players setting the market. Movement, however, is slow this winter, as it was last year. No other team has signed Grandal yet, either.

I think the Rockies are a long shot to land the former Dodgers catcher, but I’m not closing the door completely.

Yasmani Grandal is “staying patient, believing a catcher with his skills and performance will draw requisite interest,” as ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote recently. But clubs keep addressing their backstop needs, and Grandal remains unsigned. What if the offer the 30-year-old is seeking doesn’t materialize?

Among the many teams to bring in a catcher of late, the Indians are the most recent, having acquired Kevin Plawecki from the Mets on Sunday. In addition, the Angels signed Jonathan Lucroy, and the Mets inked Wilson Ramos after reported talks with Grandal on a possible four-year, $60 million offer didn’t work out. Put simply, there just aren’t that many catcher-needy teams left to drive up the bidding for the All-Star, especially for a long-term contract.

“The Dodgers, the Rockies, the Astros … and the Phillies … there are not a lot of [empty] chairs,” MLB Network analyst and former general manager Dan O’Dowd pointed out on MLB Now in a discussion about where Grandal could wind up. “I think he’s going to get his money, but I’m just not sure about the length of the deal.”

As a result, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand speculates that Grandal could wind up having to accept a one-year deal to return to the Dodgers before testing the market again next offseason. He won’t be eligible to receive another qualifying offer at that point, which means teams won’t need to forfeit a Draft pick to sign him, something that might be hindering his market this year.

FYI, last season, Grandal hit .241 with 24 home runs and 68 RBIs, but he struggled mightily in the offseason, at the plate and behind the dish.

I sincerely appreciate your coverage of the Rockies… you’ve made your father proud!

Everyone seems concerned about our free-agent losses (LeMahieu, Carlos Gonzalez, Adam Ottavino and Gerardo Parra) but at least we have reasonable options to replace them. My concern is our catching. Ianetta is the best backup catcher in MLB and while Wolters may be a good pitch-framer, his offense is well below MLB standards. With this glaring need, the Rockies front office continues to be the most passive in baseball. Please help me understand their rationale for continuing to ignore this vital position. Thanks.— Mark, Centennial

Having said that, I’m not sure it’s fair to characterize the Rockies front office as “the most passive” in baseball. Are Bridich and Co. cautious and conservative in their approach? I think so, but they do have a blueprint that they follow and I do think the plan is yielding results.

Do I wish they were more aggressive? Yes, because I think the Rockies’ window to win is open now. That’s said, I don’t have access to the information and all of the parameters of what’s discussed in Colorado’s front office.

As for the catching situation, I do think it’s needs an upgrade, but the only huge upgrade, in my mind, would be to trade for J.T. Realmuto and I don’t see that happening.

Finally, I think fans need to realize that the wear and tear of playing at altitude means the Rockies are going to have to use some sort of platoon at catcher – say a 110-52 game split.

Hi Patrick, hope your offseason is treating you well. Have you enjoyed your time off and gone on any trips this winter? Also, what are you most looking forward to this spring? Thanks again for the Rox coverage.— Garry, Aurora

Thanks, Garry. No major trips, but I had a great time over the holidays while staying at Grand Lake (skiing, snowshoeing, eating!).

As for spring training, which is just five weeks away, I’m really looking forward to see how Jon Gray has changed his body and his approach; I’m eager to see how top prospect Brendan Rodgers responds to his chance to make the major-league club; I want to see a healthy David Dahl for a full spring; and I look forward to late-night swims in the pool at my condo complex.

Denver Post sports writer Patrick Saunders posts his Rockies Mailbag every other week on Tuesdays during the season and once per month during the offseason.