In August, a hypothetical match-up showed the two in a statistical dead heat, with 31.8 percent of likely voters supporting Sinema and 30.5 percent for Ward.

Then Steve Bannon happened – specifically, his endorsement of Ward. Then Sen. Jeff Flake happened – specifically his surprise decision not to run for re-election, leaving Ward as the only Republican in the race.

Could this Senate seat turn blue?

As much as Ward is now painting herself as heir apparent – going so far as to release a laughable internal poll and to refer to other Republicans now considering the race as “vultures” – she’s more like the party’s nightmare candidate.

The one who could flip a reliably Republican seat into Democrats’ waiting hands.

“Even with Sen. Flake announcing his retirement and the whirlwind of media attention around Steve Bannon’s endorsement and visit, Kelli Ward has not seen any improvement in her support,” said Chuck Coughlin, a longtime Republican strategist whose HighGround Public Affairs conducted the independent poll released Tuesday. “The numbers continue to show that Ward is a flawed General Election candidate, and her nomination would likely result in a loss of the seat for Republicans.”

This, in a state where a Democrat hasn’t managed to win a Senate seat in three decades.

With Flake’s departure, a number of Republicans are considering a run for the seat. Among them: Rep. Martha McSally, former Rep. Matt Salmon and Jay Heiler, founder of a string of charter schools known as Great Hearts Academies and a member of the Board Regents.

Careful, GOP, of who enters the race

But if more than one enters the race, it’ll likely increase the odds of a Ward primary victory and a Sen. Sinema, D-Az. Ward, after all, is a hard-right candidate who in three years of continuous campaigning for the U.S. Senate has shown that she would have a hard time (read: no chance) of expanding her base.

The HighGround poll of 500 likely voters, taken after Flake got out of the race, shows Sinema at 34.4 percent and Ward at 26.8 percent, with 38.8 percent undecided. The live telephone poll has a margin of error of 4.36 percent.

That’s quite different from Ward’s internal poll released last week, which – surprise! – portrayed her as the only candidate who could beat Sinema. But political consultants all over town have been laughing at that poll, which was part robocall, part online survey and large part wishful thinking. GOP consultant Chris Baker called Ward's poll "junk. Absolute junk," according to the Yellow Sheet Report.

Curiously – or maybe not – the Ward campaign didn’t release demographics on who was polled and didn’t answer reporters’ questions about the methodology.

Instead, the Ward campaign used the poll as evidence that she is “in the strongest position to keep the seat in Republican hands.”