LEADING INDICATORS UP IN OCTOBER
SAN DIEGO, Dec. 9 /PRNewswire/ -- The University of San Diego's

Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for San Diego County rose
0.7 percent in October. Two components -- new defense goods orders and
tourism -- rose sharply in the month. The two measures of the national
economy -- stock prices and the money supply -- were virtually
unchanged. The only negative contribution to the index in October came
from an increase in initial claims for unemployment insurance in the
county.

Beginning this month, the tourism index developed by the University of San Diego will be replaced by one from the San Diego Convention & Visitors Bureau. That organization's superior resources will allow a more timely measure of the tourism industry in San Diego County. The tourism index will now be available at the same time as most of the other variables, rather than the previous one month lag. Recalculation of the Index of Leading Economic Indicators for all of 1991 with the new tourism index would yield slightly different absolute numbers, but no change in the direction of the index. Thanks go to Lynn Mohrfeld of the San Diego Convention & Visitors bureau for making the tourism index available.
Index of Leading Economic Indicators +0.7 pct.
The index for San Diego County that includes
the components listed below (October)
Source: University of San Diego
Building Permits -1.23 pct.
Residential units authorized by building
permits in San Diego County (September)
Source: Greater San Diego Chamber of Commerce
Unemployment Insurance -0.32 pct.
Initial claims for unemployment insurance in
San Diego County (October)
Source: Employment Development Department
Tourism +2.40 pct.
An index of tourist activity in San Diego
County (October)
Source: San Diego Convention & Visitors Bureau
New Defense Goods Orders +2.04 pct.
Manufacturers' new orders for defense products
nationally (October)
Source: Department of Commerce
Stock Prices -0.00 pct.
Standard & Poor's 500 Stock Index (October)
Source: Department of Commerce
Money Supply +0.05 pct.
Real money supply, M2 (October)
Source: Department of Commerce
October's increase put the Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County at 115.5, up from September's revised reading of 114.7. BIg declines in building permits and tourism led to a revised change of -1.3 percent in the index for September in place of the previously reported -0.7 percent. With the availability of the new tourism index, future revisions will involve only residential units authorized by building permits in San Diego County.
The change in October, while positive, should be treated cautiously. Economists typically consider three consecutive monthly movements in the index in one direction as an indication that the prevailing trend is reversing. The erratic month-to-month movements in the index for 1991 give no such signal, indicating that the outlook for the local economy appears flat for the next three to nine months. The monthly movement of the Index of Leading Economic Indicators for San Diego County is given below:
Index Pct. Change
1990 Nov. 114.3 -0.6
Dec. 114.9 +0.5
1991 Jan. 114.5 -0.4
Feb. 115.6 +1.0
Mar. 116.2 +0.5
Apr. 115.9 -0.3
May 115.7 -0.2
Jun 116.0 +0.3
Jul 115.8 -0.2
Aug. 116.2 +0.3
Sep. 114.7 -1.3
Oct. 115.5(a) +0.7
(a)Subject to revision.
For more information on the University of San Diego's Index of Leading Economic Indicators or the activities of the University's Economic Research Group, contact Alan Gin, School of Business Administration, University of San Diego, Alcala Park, San Diego, CA, 92110, (Telephone) 619-260-4883, (FAX) 619-260-4891.
-0- 12/9/91
/CONTACT: Alan Gin of University of San Diego, 619-260-4883/ CO: University of San Diego ST: California IN: SU: ECO

AL-EH -- SD005 -- 0751 12/09/91 17:52 EST

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