The Meta Pattern: ProbabilityThe likelihood that something will occur again based on its past performance. The more something occurs the more we will tend to believe it will occur again (the sun coming up for example).Also, if something which is not very probably occurs it tends to validate the case-effect belief which predicted it (pressing the button more often gets the lift to come quicker)

Polya Patterns of Plausable Inference

Verification of a ConsequenceIf a particular belief (B) implies a particular consequence and we verify the consequence (C) than it makes the believe more plausible.If B implies C and C is true then B is more credible.

ContingencyIf a belief presupposes some event or phenomenon and we verify this contingent event then it makes the belief more plausible.Polya’s example is about criminal defence or prosecution and is believed to have committed it, and that crime needs a contingent event and that event is proven to have happened it makes it more plausible that the person committed the crime.Say someone is accused of holding up a store with a gun and the prosecution demonstrates the person has a gun, then the possibility that they they held up the store seems more plausible.

Inference from AnalogyA believe (b) is more plausible if an analogous conjecture is proven true.This is where we draw comparisons to things that appear related, but aren’t.Animal testing is the classic analogy. In fact much of science is based on analogous testing…

Disprove the ConverseThe plausibility of a belief increases is a rival conjecture is disproved.This is the classic argumental process that the philosopher Nietzsche would use. He would rubbish the challenging conjecture and then provide his own. His own was often no more plausible, but because he has rubbished the alternative his appeared more plausible.

6. Comparison With RandomIf the belief can be shown to be able to predict results better than random guessing then it is more credible.

People quickly adjust their values to fit their behaviour, even when it is clearly immoral.

you thought the task was boring to start off with then you were paid to tell someone else the task was interesting. Your mind resolves this conundrum by deciding that actually the study was pretty interesting after all. You are helped to this conclusion by the experimenter who tells you other people also thought the study was pretty interesting.

Understanding that other people's expectations about us directly and immediately affect our behaviour is a vital component in understanding how we can come to be quite different people across various social situations.other people's behaviour is partly derived from how we view them