Wednesday, November 12, 2014

Staunton,
November 12 – Russians beyond the ring road see the negative impact of
sanctions on Muscovites and Petersburgers as simple justice because they think
that people in the two capitals have lived too well for too long, according to
Maria Matskevich, a researcher at the Academy of Sciences Institute of
Sociology.

She
told a roundtable organized by Rosbalt.ru that many Russians “are ready to
suffer a worsening of their position because the rich are bearing the main
economic losses – not the oligarchs but the residents of Moscow and Petersburg
who, in the opinion of Russians have lived too richly.In their misfortunes, they see justice” (rosbalt.ru/piter/2014/11/11/1336458.html).

At
the same time, she said, Russians are not prepared to sacrifice everything in
order to live in “a great country.” Moreover, even though four out of five
Russians believe that their country is surrounded by enemies, the majority
believe that “it is necessary” to work out better relations with them.

Other
speakers at the session offered some equally provocative ideas.Andrey Stolyarov, a specialist on Russian
culture, said that “the current political and economic situation in Russia
recalls the regime of Napoleon III in France," who turned to foreign
expansion when he faced rising complaints at home as a result of a
deterioration of the situation there.

“The
Russian authorities found themselves in exactly the same situation in the
winter of 2011-2012 when civic protests broke out,” and they “found an enemy in
the form of Ukraine.” But in the course of this, he said, Putin “is losing
touch with reality.” His actions are those of “a man with unlimited power after
a period of successes” who turns to “imperial ambitions.”

In
his remarks, Stolyarov drew another parallel between Putin and a leader in the
past: Adolf Hitler.The German
chancellor would have been remembered even now as “the restorer of Greater
Germany” if he had “stopped with the annexation of Sudetenland.”The implication is that Putin would have too
if he had stopped with Crimea.

But
Putin has not stopped, the domestic situation has not improved, and so,
Stolyarov said, “we are restoring the Brezhnev era” which held things together
for a long time but which did not end well.

Another
participant in the roundtable, Dmitry Travin of the Center for Research on
Modernization at the European University, offered an even more dire view of the
future. He suggested that the Russian economy had already passed “the point of
no return” on its way to collapse.

The
only thing Russians can hope for, he suggested, is a revolution in Saudi Arabia
that would send the price of oil back up. In the absence of that, the powers
that be can hold things together by inculcating the idea that Russia is
surrounded by enemies. But that is a holding action. To make Russia into a
great power would require more, and Russians aren’t ready for that.

In
the current situation, Travin argued, the regime would need “human victims”
much as Stalin did in Soviet times.But neither
Putin nor the Russian people are prepared “to accept poverty in order to
support the illusion of being a great power.” People in Moscow know that “Russians
are not prepared to eat just macaroni and chicken.”

But
that doesn’t mean, he continued, that regime change is going to happen. Instead,
it is entirely possible that “all will live without excessive euphoria, without
prospects as at the end of the late Soviet stagnation. Then too people lived
until the end of all the leaders of a single generation.”

But
a fourth participant, Grigory Tulchinsky, a political scientist at the Higher
School of Economics, said the situation could not only last a long time but
could become worse.He suggested that
Russians should think about the possibility that their country could become
another North Korea.

“The
exchange of freedom for the idea of a great power can be extended for a very
long time,” he said. “Even with the help of the army. The budget already is
going to the force structures. Now the government is playing against the ruble,
taking money out of the pockets of the population with the help of
counter-sanctions.”

“The
ruling political class,” Tulchinsky said, “will do everything in order to
remain in power.” And yet another generation will have to grow up before
anything much can change.