posted at 11:21 am on October 9, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

We’ll have plenty of poll data today, and most of it looks impressive for Mitt Romney — including one from a surprising source, which I’ll get to later today. Rasmussen’s swing state poll might be the most crucial for looking at the swing in the race since the debate, since Romney hasn’t had a lead in the eleven-state survey since September 19th. Today, however, the poll shows a five-point swing since yesterday and has Romney up three, 49/46:

The full Swing State tracking update offers Rasmussen Reader subscribers a combined view of the results from 11 key states won by President Obama in 2008 and thought to be competitive in 2012. The states collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes and include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. …

In the 11 swing states, Mitt Romney earns 49% support to Obama’s 47%. One percent (1%) likes another candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.

This is the first time Romney has led the daily Swing State Survey since September 19. Until today, the president had led for 17 of the previous 19 days, and the candidates had been tied twice. This survey is based on findings from the previous seven days, with most of the responses now coming since Romney’s debate win last Wednesday night.

The tracking poll dropped the results from last Monday and added yesterday’s results. That is what produced the five-point swing, and it suggests that stronger results might be on the way, as the last two pre-debate results will drop out tomorrow and Wednesday. Obama had led in this tracking poll by as much as six points on October 1st and 4th, the latter the day after the debate and the last day with no debate-driven results. Obama’s lead went from 6 to 5, then to 3 and a few days at 2 before today’s reversal.

The internals look pretty good for Romney, too, in this latest iteration. He has a 10-point lead among independents at 49/39, the latter a disastrous number for an incumbent just four weeks out from the election. Obama still leads among women, but only by five — and Romney leads among men by 11, for a +6 gender gap advantage. Obama has large leads among voters under 40 years of age (but not a majority among 30-39YOs at 49/37), while Romney wins solid majorities in all other age demos at 40 and above.

Moreover, Romney now leads by six among those “certain” of their vote, at 46/40. The soft numbers for Obama may be a real problem if he can’t dent Romney’s polling surge, as a preference cascade may wipe out the 7% that are leaning towards him now in these swing states. Romney does even better among independents in this measure, leading 43/31 among those “certain” of their choice. Romney has a 14-point lead among “certain” men (and a majority at 50/36), and only a three-point deficit among “certain” women, 41/44.

Those “certain” numbers will be key to watch over the next four weeks. If Romney can start solidifying support while Obama remains in the low 40s (or lower), the break of undecideds might be overwhelming.

Update: A new ARG poll shows Romney now leading Obama in Ohio, 48/47 — even with a D+9 sample. The D/R/I in this poll is 42/33/25; the 2008 election was 39/31/30; in 2010, it was 36/37/28. Among independents, Romney leads by 20 points, 57/37; Obama won them by 8 in Ohio in 2008, 52/44. I would assume that a proper balance that included more independents would extend Romney’s lead significantly.

I don,t think this election is going to be that close.I believe it,s going to be a blowout one way or the other ether Obama or Romney getting over 300 elector votes.If the truly undecided break for Romney like history says undecided this late mostly vote for the challenger.Romney will win big if not then Obama will win big.

Some good poll results for Romney – no doubt.
And reason for concern for Obama campaign.
But as always with polls, a little perspective keeps the corks (properly) un-popped.
You may dismiss Nate Silver because he’s NY Times –
but it’s pretty even handed stuff…and excellent analysis of this stuff. (Though you for sure won’t like his current forecast.)
As much as I’ve found the poll tracking here for the most part pointless and accompanied by too much hyper-ventilating about the attendant ‘results’, in these final weeks of the campaign – sober readings of this stuff is a little more meaningful than it’s been for the last year.

verbaluce on October 9, 2012 at 11:26 AM

Polls are meaningless and Nate Silver is an overrated left wing hack who under estimated the Republican gains in 2010 by almost 20 seats in the House.

The most two important metrics that determine who is going to win and who is going to lose the elections are the following:

1. The percentage of total Obama voters in 2008 who would stay home in 2012.

2. The percentage of Obama “White Voters” in 2008 who would switch to Romney in 2012.

If only 3% of Obama total voters from 2008 stay home in 2012 combined with only 10% of Obama “White Voters” in 2008 switching to Romney in 2012 then Obama is certain to lose the elections. The Math cannot be challenged here.

I have thought before this that the stubbornness in Obama’s numbers were that his advertising had made people at least doubt Romney and make them ask themselves they need to know more about him before they switch or commit. I think that explains why 70 million people watched the debate. They wanted to see Romney against Obama one-on-one and judge for themselves. That has happened and now it will be much harder for Obama to continue his cartoon character of Romney because now it feels more like political lies.

Conan on October 9, 2012 at 12:12 PM

This is exactly what I think, too. And there is also the momentum of “nothing succeeds like success” at work also, boosting Romney. Everyone loves a winner.

HOWEVER, we cannot underestimate the Dem ability to cheat. They are already suppressing military ballots. They have and will again fill voter rolls with dead people and cartoon characters and position thugs outside polling places to intimidate Romney voters. And in states where they have managed to stall/overturn voter ID, they will bus in illegals. If it’s close, they will “find” votes in the trunks of cars. We need a landslide in order to avoid found ballots, lawsuits and recounts. People who live in swing states, PLEASE, put your boots on the ground and go door to door. Our country depends on you.

Just saw a Rasmussen poll for Connecticut .Obama 51% Romney 45% yes i know Obama is ahead by six but this is a state that sent Chris Dodd to the Sen. and for Obama to be up only by six in this very liberal state speaks volumes.

I’ve actually met (white!) people who have shrines dedicated to O’bamna in their homes. Never ever seen that in 35 years in my profession, not even with JFK or Clinton or Reagan.

And when you go to Facebook and see a page with a zillion followers called “I Love Waking Up in the Morning Knowing that Barack O’bamna is President”, sometimes you wonder if you’re woken up in Pyongyang.

The polls are all over the place, I am becoming skeptical, these people are crazy, they should stop polling every second of their sorry existence, especially when so few real voters/peope actually take these polls…9% answer these polls apparently…John Podhoretz said this much in his article in NY Post. Charlie Cook whom I respect greatly (his was the closest prediction of the GOP seats grab in 2010) also sounds cautious, what with thosollingpalooza. here bit of raining on our parade, eh, and he’s no partisan hack or Dim.

When Romney was at his darkest, I put $500 on inTrade, long Romney and short Obama. I’m beginning to see some movement on the boards, and I think after Wednesday I may make some profit. And since most of the traders are foreigners who know little about the race…my belief is there is an excellent profit opportunity here. Any of my fellow Hot Gas acolytes care to wager with me?

I hate to destroy Rassmussen, but his SEVEN day swing state tracking poll is pure bull crap.

The key to understand a 7 day tracking poll is to know that its almost impossible to have a 5 point swing. To have a +3 final result he must have a total on the plus side of atleast 18 points or 18 divided by 7 equals +2.6 rounded out to +3. And for Romney to have a +2 he must have a total of plus 11 divided by 7 equals +1.6 rounded out to +2 for Romney.

This means that the difference between the last day removed and the newest day added is 29 points ATLEAST. Something like a +15 for Obama removed and a +14 for Romney added. Or a +19 for Obama removed and a +9 for Romney added. Does anybody believe ANY of that was even remotely possible? And a 29 point differential is the least it could be.

This is why Gallup rarely changes more then 1-2 points the last 3 months. Either this is not a 7 day tracking poll, Rassmussen can’t add, or Rassmussen is cheating.

Are the SoCon idiots taking notes at what is happening? Are they observing how Mitt is attracting the indies and middle of the roaders?

rickyricardo on October 9, 2012 at 1:45 PM

Are the “anything goes progressiveCons” taking note that the SOCONs are holding firm with the ticket? Are you really that freaking stupid to try to drive wedges? Are you really that freaking stupid too see that we’ve all gotten here together?

Dude, I try hard to not say “hate” in the way I describe my feelings about things I see in life. But I truly with all my heart hate the crap you post here.