2016 Game Projections

FEI Game Projections are calculated as a function of the current FEI rating of each team, an adjustment for home field advantage, and the projected scoring pace of the game. The table identifies the Win Likelihood (WL) of the projected game winner and the likelihood of various game results for the projected winner: DW (dominant win by 25+ points), SW (strong win by 17-24 points), MW (moderate win by 9-16 points), NW (narrow win by 1-8 points), NL (narrow loss by 1-8 points), ML (moderate loss by 9-16 points), SL (strong loss by 17-24 points), and DL (dominant loss by 25+ points).

Bowl Game Projections

Date

WL

Projected Winner

Score

Projected Loser

DW

SW

MW

NW

NL

ML

SL

DL

12/17

.645

Central Florida

24-18

Arkansas State

.099

.160

.201

.185

.223

.069

.043

.021

12/17

.781

Houston

33-21

San Diego State

.197

.230

.209

.145

.150

.038

.022

.010

12/17

.674

Southern Mississippi

28-21

Louisiana Lafayette

.114

.177

.205

.178

.207

.062

.038

.018

12/17

.623

Toledo

29-25

Appalachian State

.089

.147

.198

.189

.234

.074

.046

.022

12/17

.653

UTSA

34-28

New Mexico

.103

.165

.202

.183

.218

.067

.041

.020

12/19

.889

Tulsa

37-17

Central Michigan

.349

.259

.192

.089

.085

.015

.008

.003

12/20

.559

Western Kentucky

33-31

Memphis

.067

.104

.187

.201

.266

.090

.057

.028

12/21

.672

BYU

30-24

Wyoming

.113

.176

.205

.178

.208

.063

.038

.018

12/22

.938

Colorado State

43-18

Idaho

.467

.254

.169

.048

.052

.006

.003

.000

12/23

.585

Navy

40-37

Louisiana Tech

.075

.122

.192

.197

.253

.083

.053

.026

12/23

.589

Old Dominion

31-27

Eastern Michigan

.076

.125

.192

.196

.251

.082

.052

.026

12/23

.704

Troy

27-19

Ohio

.133

.193

.207

.170

.192

.055

.033

.016

12/24

.777

Middle Tennessee

38-26

Hawaii

.193

.228

.210

.147

.152

.039

.022

.010

12/26

.545

Boston College

23-21

Maryland

.063

.095

.184

.203

.273

.093

.059

.030

12/26

.568

Mississippi State

27-25

Miami (OH)

.069

.110

.188

.200

.262

.088

.055

.027

12/26

.543

North Carolina State

24-23

Vanderbilt

.063

.093

.183

.204

.274

.094

.060

.030

12/27

.796

Army

32-19

North Texas

.213

.236

.209

.139

.141

.034

.020

.009

12/27

.907

Boise State

39-17

Baylor

.385

.259

.186

.077

.074

.012

.006

.002

12/27

.866

Temple

31-13

Wake Forest

.307

.256

.199

.104

.100

.020

.011

.004

12/27

.710

Washington State

31-22

Minnesota

.137

.196

.208

.169

.189

.054

.033

.015

12/28

.657

Miami

28-22

West Virginia

.105

.167

.203

.182

.217

.066

.041

.020

12/28

.640

Pittsburgh

32-27

Northwestern

.097

.157

.201

.186

.225

.070

.043

.021

12/28

.595

Texas A&M

28-24

Kansas State

.078

.129

.193

.195

.248

.081

.051

.025

12/28

.791

Utah

29-17

Indiana

.207

.234

.209

.141

.144

.036

.021

.009

12/29

.696

Colorado

30-22

Oklahoma State

.128

.189

.207

.172

.196

.057

.035

.016

12/29

.913

South Florida

37-15

South Carolina

.399

.259

.183

.072

.070

.011

.005

.001

12/29

.783

Virginia Tech

34-22

Arkansas

.199

.230

.209

.144

.149

.037

.022

.009

12/30

.862

Air Force

37-19

South Alabama

.301

.255

.200

.107

.102

.021

.011

.004

12/30

.510

Georgia

24-23

TCU

.056

.068

.176

.209

.290

.102

.065

.033

12/30

.773

Michigan

31-20

Florida State

.189

.227

.210

.148

.154

.039

.023

.010

12/30

.545

North Carolina

26-25

Stanford

.063

.094

.184

.204

.273

.093

.059

.030

12/30

.741

Tennessee

31-21

Nebraska

.160

.212

.209

.159

.172

.047

.028

.013

12/31

.734

Alabama

30-21

Washington

.155

.209

.209

.161

.176

.048

.029

.013

12/31

.776

Georgia Tech

35-23

Kentucky

.192

.228

.210

.147

.153

.039

.023

.010

12/31

.568

LSU

26-24

Louisville

.069

.111

.189

.200

.261

.087

.055

.027

12/31

.629

Ohio State

28-24

Clemson

.092

.150

.199

.188

.231

.073

.045

.022

1/2

.534

Auburn

30-29

Oklahoma

.061

.086

.182

.205

.278

.096

.061

.031

1/2

.594

Iowa

21-18

Florida

.078

.128

.193

.195

.249

.081

.051

.025

1/2

.571

Penn State

28-25

USC

.070

.113

.189

.199

.260

.087

.055

.027

1/2

.537

Wisconsin

26-25

Western Michigan

.061

.089

.182

.205

.277

.095

.061

.030

1/9

.679

Alabama

27-20

Clemson

.117

.180

.205

.177

.205

.061

.037

.018

2016 Game Projection Results by Week

FEI game projection results are provided below, including expected results as a function of individual game win likelihoods (Proj Pct), actual results of projected game winners (SU), average absolute value of the difference between projected margin and the non-garbage margin (NE), average absolute value of the difference between projected margin and the final margin (FE), projected game winner results by win likelihood range, and projected results against the spread (ATS).