MINORITY MYTH VS. REALITY

You can't blame political operatives for hyping the role of
minorities in November's presidential contest. They need only look
to the 2000 election, where the outcomes in two ethnically diverse
states, Florida and New Mexico, were determined by 537 and 366
votes, respectively. Clearly, every vote counts. So the push to
reach out to growing minority populations makes sense. Also, the
census reveals that minorities account for more than one-third of
our national population, and that whites make up less than half the
populations in four states California, Texas, New Mexico and Hawaii
as other states head in that direction.

The quest for minority votes was obvious at the Republican Party
Convention, which highlighted the president's Latino nephew, George
P. Bush, Maryland's African American Lt. Gov. Michael S. Steele and
Asian American Labor Secretary Elaine Chao. California Gov. Arnold
Schwarzenegger, too, extolled opportunities for immigrants under
Republican Party principles. While the previous election showed the
GOP behind Democrats among minority voters (by 9-to-1 among blacks,
2-to-1 among Hispanics, and 6-to-4 among Asian Americans), they are
hoping to make inroads. Hispanic commentator Jorge Ramos stated in
The Latino Wave that Bush will win if he gets more than 3 in
10 Latino votes in November.

Democrats also count on Hispanics to win growing Western
battleground states, like Arizona and Nevada (See Battling
Battlegrounds, American Demographics, September 2004) and
have given New Mexico's Hispanic governor, Bill Richardson, a
starring role in the national campaign; not to mention the Party's
efforts to energize black voters with the likes of Jesse Jackson
and former President Clinton.

Despite the hoopla over minority votes, demographic facts would
indicate that this emphasis is overstated. One such fact is that
minorities, Hispanics particularly, have a voter translation
problem. That is, their representation in the overall population
grossly outweighs their representation in the voting population. A
large share of the Latino community is under age 18, and among
adults, they are less likely to be citizens, to register to vote
and to vote. Nationally, of every 100 Hispanics, only 40 are
voting-age citizens, 23 are likely to register, and just 18 will
show up at the polls. These national statistics even overstate
voting states with low citizenship rates like Nevada, Georgia or
North Carolina, but understates voting propensity in higher
citizenship states like New Mexico.

While fewer than one-fifth of all Hispanics vote, the African
American population-to-voter ratio is significantly higher. Of 100
blacks in the total population, 37 wind up voting. Almost twice as
many African Americans as Hispanics will cast ballots nationally,
despite there being more Hispanics in the overall population.

The translation of population to voters is highest for whites.
Almost half of all whites in the total population (47 of 100) will
vote. Indeed, 4 in 5 voters are white compared with 2 in 3 in the
population overall. In the nation's battleground states, whites
will account for a whopping 86 percent of those who cast
ballots.

Minorities are clustered in states that, historically, are less
likely to be up for grabs. Fully 64 percent of Hispanic voters
reside either in the safe Red Republican state of Texas, or the
safe Blue Democratic states of California, New York, New Jersey and
Illinois all states that contain historical urban gateways for
Latin American immigrants and their descendants. Eighty-three
percent of Asian voters reside in immigrant gateway Red or Blue
states (55 percent reside in California, New York and Hawaii).
African Americans' historically strong presence in the South
diminished during the Great Migration northward up to the 1990s.
But recent reverse migration among African Americans back to the
South introduces more Democratic-leaning black voters to Red
stronghold states, although not enough to tip the balance to Blue.
At the same time, many blacks are leaving Midwest battleground
states, so their migration may ironically have a bigger political
impact on the states they're exiting.

Meanwhile, almost 2 in 5 whites reside in battleground states.
While they do not dominate all battlegrounds, they are the vast
majority in states with large electoral votes like Pennsylvania,
Ohio, Michigan and Missouri, not to mention a swath of smaller
battleground states. While it is possible that minorities could
affect the outcome in cliffhanger states like Florida and New
Mexico, sheer demographic weight suggests that this year's
presidential election will be determined on mostly white
battlegrounds.