Hurricane Matthew was a weakened a Category 3 hurricane, with 115 mph winds, due to the disruption to the storm caused by clipping both Haiti and Cuba Tuesday. However, the storm is re-organizing over the warm waters of The Bahamas, and poses a serious threat to The Bahamas and southeast United States over the next three days.

The upcoming environment is favorable, and intensification is likely, as Matthew is now moving over very warmer sea waters. It’s not out of the question that Matthew may attain category 4 strength once again Thursday.

Matthew will move northwest through The Bahamas on today into Thursday, with the dangerous right front northeast quadrant, with the strongest winds likely to affect the most populous island in the archipelago…New Providence Thursday morning.

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter planes have been in the eye of Matthew during the past several hours. Data from those planes indicate that the hurricane is gradually recovering from the passage over the mountains of eastern Cuba and Haiti. The eye is becoming better defined on satellite. Based on SFMR winds of 103 kt and a flight-level peak wind of 118 kt, the initial intensity is 105 kt.

The environment between the Bahamas and Florida is favorable for Matthew to restrengthen some during the next couple of days. After that time, the shear is forecast to increase, resulting in gradual weakening.

Fixes from the planes indicate that Matthew is moving toward the northwest or 325 degrees at about 8 to 10 knots. The hurricane will be steered toward the northwest during the next day or two, with no significant change in forward speed.

After that time Matthew will move northward very near or over the Florida east coast, and then near or to the east of the Georgia and South Carolina coasts.

By the end of the forecast period, models have changed significantly since yesterday. Some track models keep the hurricane moving eastward across the Atlantic while others reduce the hurricane’s forward speed with a southward turn.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm surge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in portions of the hurricane warning areas in Cuba and the Bahamas. Please consult statements from the meteorological services and other government officials in those countries.

2. When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to specify impacts at any one location. For example, only a small deviation of the track to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major hurricane onshore within the hurricane warning area in Florida. However, a small deviation to the right could keep the hurricane- force winds offshore.

3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this weekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too soon to determine what, if any, land areas might be directly affected by Matthew next week. At a minimum, dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely along much of the U.S. east coast during the next several days.

4. The National Hurricane Center is issuing Potential Storm Surge Flooding Maps, and Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphics for Matthew. It is important to remember that the Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation, but rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario – the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded. In addition, because the Flooding Map is based on inputs that extend out only to about 72 hours, it best represents the flooding potential in those locations within the watch and warning areas.

Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula and the Keys, should monitor the progress of Matthew.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm- force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

WIND: Hurricane conditions will gradually diminish over portions of eastern Cuba today. These conditions will continue over the southeastern Bahamas, and will spread over the central Bahamas later today and the northwestern Bahamas tonight.

Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the hurricane warning area in Florida by late Thursday and will spread northward Thursday night and Friday. Tropical storm conditions are first expected in Florida by early Thursday.

RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations in the following areas:

Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely in southern and northwestern Haiti, the southwestern Dominican Republic, and eastern Cuba.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the following amounts above normal tide levels…

Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey…4 to 6 feet

The Bahamas…10 to 15 feet

The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

North Palm Beach to the Flagler/Volusia county line…3 to 5 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the Florida east coast from North Palm Beach to the Flagler/Volusia county line. There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48 hours from north of the Flagler/Volusia county line to Fernandina Beach.

SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions of the coasts of Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, and the Bahamas during the next few days, and will spread northward along the east coast of Florida and the southeast U.S. coast tonight and Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

>>> Tropical Storm 15L (Nicole) remains active in the Atlantic Ocean…located 435 miles south of Bermuda

According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), thunderstorm activity has been bursting since the overnight hours near Nicole’s center, which is located near the northwestern edge of the deep convection.

Nicole’s small circulation has found itself beneath an upper-level low and wind shear axis, so the shear affecting the system does not seem as strong as various large-scale calculations of 25-30 knots from the north would suggest.

The intensity models show very little change in intensity during the next couple of days, and the NHC forecast holds Nicole’s strength through day 3. The models then show a general weakening trend on days 4 and 5.

The cyclone is expected to turn northwestward soon and maintain its speed for the next 24 hours while it moves around a mid-level high. After that time, a mid-latitude shortwave trough drops southward from New England, causing Nicole to put on the brakes.

While some models show the trough pushing Nicole southwestward, the remainder of the models induce a motion with an eastward component. The NHC forecast continues to favor the eastern models, and the spread among the guidance suggests that Nicole will meander during the day 2-5 time range.

Atlantic Ocean

1.) A tropical wave is producing a large area of cloudiness and showers several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands. Development of this system is not expected during the next few days while it moves westward at 15 mph, but some development could be possible when the wave reaches the southwestern Caribbean Sea early next week. Locally heavy rains and gusty winds are possible in the Windward and southern Leeward Islands during the next couple of days as the wave moves through the area.

Gulf of Mexico

As I mentioned when we met recently at BNPB HQ Jakarta, I want to extend my appreciation to you, to your colleagues at PDC, and to USAID/OFDA for your hard work and dedication – and for your tangible results – in building capabilities and capacities for disaster risk reduction in Indonesia, especially in the area of hazard monitoring and early warning.

Daniel B. Whitley

Acting Associate Administrator, Foreign Agricultural Service (2017)

"On behalf of USDA's Foreign Agricultural Services, I would like to express my appreciation and full support of the Pacific Disaster Center (PDC) for its essential contributions...with data and support...we've been able to improve our global agricultural production and disaster assessment analyses, products, and decision outcomes."

Harlan V. Hale

Regional Advisor, USAID/DCHA/OFDA/EAP

"From a disaster management perspective, these agencies [PDC, HOT, PetaBencana.id] have combined their skills, have worked well together, and have created something that is really innovative, useful, and can actually improve both the disaster response by the government and citizen's participation in it as well."

“Keep up the good work. I'm using EMOPS (DisasterAWARE) in Texas to monitor Hurricane Harvey.”

Eric Yarrell

Lieutenant Colonel, United States Air Force, JTF-Bravo (2017)

"JTF-Bravo sincerely appreciated the HADR decision-support information provided by the Pacific Disaster Center during Hurricane Irma response… has been both timely and valuable support of current operations."

Susan Cruz

Director, Office of Civil Defense (2015)

"We are very appreciative of your support to our country."

Augusto Moreno O'Phelan

Director General for Policy and Strategy, Ministry of Defense, Peru (2016)

"Many thanks for your important information about the ongoing outbreak of Zika virus in the Americas."

"…thank you all for the assistance you have rendered on so many occasions to The BNGISC but more importantly to The Bahamas."

Claudia Mateo

President, Republica Domincana Comisión Nacional de Energía

"Thank you for being aware of our situation and for the sending of images for analysis."

William I. Clark

Humanitarian Assistance Division Chief, U.S. SOUTHCOM (2017)

Our success during response efforts is directly related to PDC's contribution. The set of tools offered by your decision support system (DisasterAWARE), the large amount of data, the modeling and assessments, and skill set of your staff are unique. They provide my team with great situational awareness in a timely manner, enabling rapid and informed decision making in critical periods."

Don Price

Disaster Management Advisor, U.S. Forest Service, Myanmar (2017)

"The big floods in Southern China are causing some real problems for Vietnam and Myanmar and DMRS/EMOPS (DisasterAWARE) is the best visualization for this regional flood situation."

Ana Ake

Ministry of Information and Communications, Kingdom of Tonga (2017)

"I was first introduced to EMOPS (DisasterAWARE)...during a HA/DR training in Auckland this year. I've worked with several tools and it is obvious that EMOPS is the only sustainable tool that is available and is openly available."

Dr. Sutopo Purwo Nugroho

Head of Data, Information, and Public Relations, BNPB (2017)

"Thank you very much for your support in Mt Agung eruption. Very useful to us."

"[I] wanted to pass along that the reports that PDC is generating are succinct and extremely informative. I've passed along to other colleagues in the HQs staff and other COCOMs to peak their interest. Well done!"

Christopher Vaughan

FEMA National Headquarters Geospatial Information Officer (2015)

"My sincerest thanks to the PDC team during this event. [Tropical Cyclone Dolphin] Your professionalism and dedication to the mission is to be commended. I'm sure we will have plenty to discuss/improve upon in the weeks to follow. Thanks again for all the support. Great job team."

USDA Foreign Agriculture Service officer

USDA (2016)

"Your suggestion that we look at PDC content and capabilities has really paid off. We partnered with them, and are ingesting their global disaster feeds into [Global Agricultural & Disaster Assessment System] GADAS. The addition of a couple of our own applications to quickly delineate impacted areas and extract agricultural acreage and population has proved quite valuable."

Jeremy K. Delancy

Senior Assistant Secretary, Ministry of Social Services & Community Development, Commonwealth of The Bahamas (2016)

"I wanted [PDC] to know that I used DisasterAWARE during Hurricane Joaquin and it performed admirably. Some further training will be needed for us to use it to its full capabilities. One of the persons who was quite impressed is Chief Meteorological Officer, Mr. Arnold King."

"I knew of 'InAWARE' and I am impressed by its capabilities. Information sharing in the humanitarian context is still a big challenge (especially in ASEAN), and the efforts you are putting to close this gap are highly appreciated, and indeed highly useful for the whole humanitarian community."

Kenta Hamasaki

The Consulate General of Japan, Honolulu, HI (2016)

"Aloha Julie. Hello. After the registration [for DisasterAWARE], I started to receive warnings such as Typhoon Meranti. That data contains necessary info and is so graphic that it's easy to know at a glance how the impact is. This is very important for our duties. Thank you again."

Jonathan Colwell

Goespatial Coordinator, DHS-FEMA Region 9 (2016)

"EMOPS (DisasterAWARE) made my day so much easier while monitoring [Tropical Cyclone] AMOS. Data that I thought I'd spend a good part of the morning digging for was available, as were the tools to draw polygons and annotate and meet the requirement."

"I work for the Virginia DOT as an emergency planner. I would like to be added to your distribution list for awareness products. I followed work during Hurricane Mathew and would like to avail our organization of your great products."

Jesse Rozelle

Program Manager, Natural Hazards Risk Assessment Program, FEMA (2017)

"Aloha PDC team: I wanted to express my sincere gratitude for all of your support during Hurricanes Harvey and Irma. The modeling and risk assessment support you have provided to FEMA has been incredibly helpful for our response efforts and our emergency management partners. I'm looking forward to a continued partnership."

PDC's support in the SOUTHCOM region and its commitment to promote public safety were unfailing during the Rio Olympics. [DisasterAWARE] greatly enhanced our situational awareness and offered an abundance of useful data and safety monitoring information."

Marcus Elten

United Nations OCHA (2016)

"I was impressed with how quickly you guys developed situational awareness products...quite impressed with your team's work."

Dr. Sutopo Purwo Nugroho

Head of Data, Information, and Public Relations for Indonesia's National Disaster Management Agency, BNPB