Paul A. Eisenstein: Toyota over GM? My, how times have changed

Paul A. Eisenstein

Tuesday

Aug 26, 2008 at 12:01 AMAug 26, 2008 at 8:55 PM

When I started covering the auto industry 30 years ago, the pecking order seemed well and permanently set in stone. There were the Big Three and, well, everyone else. But in recent years, the established order has begun to crumble like a sand castle at high tide.

Some things are unthinkable. Then again, sometimes the unthinkable happens.

When I started covering the auto industry 30 years ago, the pecking order seemed well and permanently set in stone. There were the Big Three and, well, everyone else.

But in recent years, the established order has begun to crumble like a sand castle at high tide. And washing over Detroit is that tsunami known as Toyota. First, it pushed past Chrysler, to become the nation’s third-largest maker. Then it snuck up on No. 2 Ford.

Now comes word that the Japanese giant has toppled the king-of-the-hill, General Motors.

No, GM remains the top-selling manufacturer in the United States, though even there, the gap between the two corporate juggernauts is closing. But during the first half of 2008, Toyota moved 4.8 million vehicles, surging past its American rival on a global basis, by a whopping 250,000 cars, trucks and crossovers.

It wasn’t all bad news for GM. The automaker posted a strong 10 percent growth in overseas sales. Two of its traditionally domestic brands, Chevrolet and Cadillac, both did well abroad, posting double-digit gains.

And despite its historic triumph, Toyota’s victory isn’t entirely sweet. Last year, when the automaker’s management threw down the gauntlet, they forecast worldwide sales of 9.85 million vehicles in 2008. But like GM, Toyota has been hard hit by the U.S. market slump, especially the decline in light truck sales. With the carmaker planning to shut down its Tundra pickup plant for three months, among other things, Toyota has had to rethink its forecast, trimming it to 9.5 million for the full year.

Still, that should be enough for it to retain its lead over GM, and considering the American maker's many problems, don’t expect it to push back in the race for No. 1 anytime soon.

Paul A. Eisenstein is an award-winning journalist who has spent more than 30 years covering the global auto industry. His work appears in a wide range of publications worldwide, and he is a frequent broadcast commentator on subjects automotive.

Toyota vs. GM

- GM squeaks through a win in 2007, 3,100 sales ahead of Toyota.

- Toyota grabs the crown for the first half of 2008, ahead by 250,000 sales worldwide.

- Both GM and Toyota are falling short of ’08 forecasts as U.S. truck market collapses.