Aaron Altherr and Kyrell Hudson with two tremendous catches in the outfield tonight. Altherr made a full extension grab with two outs and runner on third on a liner to the left-center gap early to save a run. Hudson then made one of the best catches I’ve ever seen in person. Shading toward right-center in the top of the ninth, there was a blast to the left-center field gap with Luis Amaro playing left, Hudson ran it down, diving full extension going on a backward angle to the warning track to make a back-handed catch. Absolutely phenomenal catch. Morandini said after the game that “Hudson could probably play center field in the Major Leagues right now, he’s that good defensively.”

Well, we’re a long way from having, or needing to have, a definitive answer on that count. My point was that a lot of people have stuffed Hudson into the “bust” category–myself included–based on his hitting stats, and Morandini’s judgment certainly suggests that there’s something more to the guy that doesn’t show up in the numbers. Until sophisticated defensive metrics (which I’m a bit dubious about anyway) get extended to the minors, we’re going to have to rely on anecdotal reports like this.

You could see last year Hudson was an above average defensive outfielder. He makes it look so easy, too. He has a way of just gliding to the baseball, and anybody who’s been to Bowman Field in Williamsport knows just how much room there is to cover, and it’s tough to get one in the gap past him. If the baseball hangs up at all, he’s going to come down with it.

Valle has walks in back-to-back games. And 3 walks in his last 10, but he’s only hitting .229 in that span. Could it be a change in approach to try and walk more, the pitchers throwing him less strikes because of his success, or just an anomaly?

Strange Lakewood boxscore. Travis Mattair actually won the game in the bottom of the 9th with a walkoff grand slam. A bomb to left center, a no-doubt-about-it shot. Lakewood players were so excited by the game ending slam that many of them stayed on the field to watch the July 4 fireworks afterward.

Lidge looked OK. Both singles off of him were rockets. He was only throwing fastballs until he surrendered the two hits. Then he started mixing in his slider, with predictably better results.

Jesse Biddle concerns me a little. He did not throw well at all, had zero command with a lot of walks. Walked bases loaded in the second inning (his first). Fastball never touched north of 88 all night and usually sat 84-86. Does have a very nice breaking ball that appears to be his true out pitch.

I was there too, and I gotta agree – Moose’s bomb landed behind the chain-link fence over the center field wall, it was a no-question homer. And the stadium scoreboard said “Visitors 2 BlueClaws 6” right up until they turned off all the lights for the post-game fireworks show. I’d like to know when (and how) exactly the umps conferred and made this decision. I doubt they have video instant replay in the Sally League.

That said, it was adorable to see all the ‘Claws out on the grass in front of their dugout watching the fireworks.

If you read it on the internet, or to be more specific in the comments section of a blog, it must be true. OMG, let’s cut him now. We really can’t draft. And no, I am not over reacting here. This is really serious. I have already drawn a conclusion on Biddle’s future. And it doesn’t look pretty.

— First, the gun may be slow. I don’t know what the situation is with the Lakewood gun, whether it has a reputation for being slow.

— In his earlier innings of work, Biddle was probably sitting 86-87, sometimes 88, on the gun. He was mostly getting outs with his slow breaking curve, which came in anywhere between 69-74 mph. The differential was large enough that he didn’t seem to be getting hurt on his fastball. He was struggling with fastball command, hence the walks.

— In his later innings, Biddle’s fastball velocity dropped to 84-86. Those balls started getting hit very hard.

Now, I don’t know what he’s been told to work on. Maybe he has a cutter that sits in middle to high 80s that he is trying to improve? Maybe he is being asked to pitch to contact?

I’m just saying he didn’t crack 90 the entire night, and if he hit 89, it was only once or twice.

I would just like to note that it’s ironic that someone who wasn’t at the game discounts the observations of someone who was there. I mean, no one’s arguing that we should give up on Biddle based on one negative report, but we should be receptive to information regardless of whether it’s good or bad, and polite to those who offer it.

if biddle is really that low, that is an issue, but maybe its just the perils of playing a full season. my first thought with the reading game after seeing the score and then checking the box was “ok good no real prospects got rocked”

If the above stuff is right on, it may be of interest to those inclined to produce interviews on here. Score an interview with said “Amber” or whatever, with a “what is Jared Cosart really like” story.

Susdorf has two major flaws. He’s left-handed and he can’t run faster than a speeding bullet.. He’s a professional hitter especially against righties. He actually has better splits against lefties but that’s such a small sample size. I think he’s a righty specialist and that’s how he’s used.

He lacks the great foot speed on James, Hudson, Altherr, Gillies etc, etc. Who doesn’t but we all know the type. He’s a good defender with only 2 E’s in 4 years and 13 assists. He can play LF or RF with LF his predominant spot. He won’t take away runs like speed does but he also won’t create a bunch of unearned runs.

He probably tops out as a AAAA guy. He could be a platoon player or 5th OF’er with a second tier team. If the Phillies OF was rock solid right now, he’d be playing in AAA . But the Phils need guys like Moss, Mayberry etc. in case of more implosion or injury. He’s 25 so he has more time to prove himself but other than winning a race with a train or suddenly hitting 5 HRs a week for the next month, he’s not going to get a lot of love.

Don’t start worrying about Biddle. Starters who follow rehabbing guys like Lidge get all messed up by the change in their normal pitching day routine. Too bad it wasn’t Bonilla following Lidge. He’s used to coming into a game after it’s started. Biddle is giving up too many BBs. There’s no one who would dispute that but he walked the bases loaded in his first inning of work (the 2nd). His routine was messed up and he couldn’t find the rhythm. He got it back and gave up a small ball run with a pair of singles sandwiched around a swinging sacrifice in the 3rd inning. Velocity could be a number of things but let’s keep an eye on it. He’s at 82 innings right now. Colvin pitched 131 at Biddle’s age and Pettibone was similar. We’ll see if that is the top end or he’ll get fewer this year.

I try not to read too much into such things, but this is the second such comment I have seen that Biddle’s velocity has been unimpressive. It does not seem to be affecting his performance all that much, however. I guess we shall see how this develops.

Kevin Goldstein has said, probably 3-4 times this season in his daily prospect report, that the reports he’s getting from scouts say that Biddle’s stuff has not been as advertised, despite strong results for a 19 year old in Lakewood.

I guess you could call it “worry”, but my expectations have been dampened a bit.

I was talking to Bryan Morgado about the gun in Lakewood and he said it’s pretty good. The first thing he mentioned when I mentioned Biddle’s velocity is that it sounds like he’s going through a dead arm period. What he said made a lot of sense. Biddle has already thrown 80 innings this year when usually by this time for the past 18 years of his life, Biddle’s season has probably been over right around this time.

Morgado said he went through the same thing when he showed up last year after pitching at Tennessee. It’s not really pain or an injury, you just lose the life on your pitches. I wonder if the Phillies brass will give him a couple weeks to rest, or if the best way to attack it is pitch through it.

My boy HMART seems to be coming way back down to earth but I a happy to see Maikel is still consistently having good games.

And finally its time for me to give Worley his do. I did not consider him a top 10 prospect at the onset of this season but last nights game showed me a lot. Good command up down in and out. The book will still be out as is for most young pitchers. Once you cycle through the league it starts to get tougher to have quality starts.

While Worley is by no means through his trial period in the big leagues, there are several things to like about him.

First, his demeanor could not be better. He takes the ball and believes he is in charge and should get every hitter out. Stutes and Bastardo are exactly the same way. They all believe they are fantastic and that’s probably half the battle with a talented young pitcher.

Second, Worley appears to have very good command and has several plus pitches. Basically, he lets the catcher control the game and he can effectively do that which the catcher asks him to do.

Third, Worley hide the ball well and has a rising fastball. It is unusual for a pitcher who does not throw at least in the mid-90s to have an effective rising fastball. It is especially unsual for right-handed pitchers. However, Worley appears to be one of those rare exceptions. What this means is that if he can throw a sharp breaking ball for strikes and he mixes that pitch with the rising fastball, it makes it almost impossible for the hitter to lay off the high heat. That’s what you saw in the later innings last night. That more than anything gives Worley more upside than I originally believed he had.

Certainly, we will need to let the year play out to see if Worley is legitimate. However, if he can pitch like an above-average number 3 or 4, it means the Phillies can save money next year on Oswalt and use that savings to improve the line-up (that having been said, knowing Amaro, he will use the savings to sign another pitcher).

Fair enough – at this point, I agree that you cannot call any of his pitches “plus” pitches (to me, plus means bordering on dominant). However, he does have a few above-average pitches and, as you note, he does hit his spots. Also, as a 23 year-old, it’s possible he may still increase his velocity as he matures and improves his conditioning (last September he was hitting 95 and 96 MPH, so there’s some hope that this really could happen) but, of course, you cannot count on that.

I am not prepared to limit his upside to a number 4, but that’s certainly the most likely range for him. If everything goes right for him and he picks up a tick or two on his fastball, his upside is probably a 2, but that is, admittedly, quite unlikely.

In the post-game interview, Worley said that he couldn’t get the slider over except twice to Hanley Ramirez, so he threw changeups and curves (I assume that me meant in addition to his fastball). So he also has a curve. According to Fangraphs, he normally only throws the curve about 4-5% of the time and it is in the mid 70s.

Its not just velocity that matters. After all, would you call Mathieson’s fastball a plus MLB pitch? Its above 95 at times and he gets hammered. Saying he has a plus fastball because its 91-94 mph is misleading at best.

Remember, command and control get their own grades. Let’s say a pitcher has an 80 fastball(plus plus) but 20 control. He will never make a major league roster.

Movement is another factor though and is taken into account. I haven’t heard anything negative or positive about Worley’s 4 seamer in regards to movement so I’m assuming it’s league average amount of movement on the fastball. In that case, I’m going to rate it based on velocity(plus) and movement(average).

So in answer to your question; is Mathieson’s fastball plus? Yes. Yes it is. But he doesn’t have a single other plus pitch and his command is bad. Brian Wilson has a straight fastball but his command is good which is what makes him effective.

NEPP–can understand your assessment. Additionally, bearing in mind V.Worley’s overall minor stats —-W/L-24-23, WHIP-1.264, ERA-3.85. But let it play out this season, he very may level off and be the overall .500 pitcher he has been over the last three/four seasons.

I agree, his mound presence far exceeds any such mound presence that Kyle Kendrick has ever shown during his career. Worley’s stuff, while better than Kendrick’s, is not drastically better than Kendrick’s but his command and his mound presence are far better at this point. Kendrick’s stuff has evolved to the point where if he could command it and have some self confidence, he could be a serviceable 4th starter in the big leagues. But he keeps throwing that tailing sinker up over the middle of the plate that starts on the outside corner and finishes waist high, middle in to a RH hitter and somebody is going to get killed in the second deck of a ballpark pretty soon if he doesn’t. Worley’s command has been really good and he just oozes confidence on the mound, makes a big difference.

Kendrick’s biggest problem is that he gets crushed by LH (.819 OPS against) hitters. He’s actually OK against RH (.707 OPS against) hitters, but if your point is that Worley is a better pitcher, I’ll buy that. Just don’t buy any of the explanation.

I would say Worley’s stuff IS “drastically better” than Kendrick’s. Kendrick has an average fastball, average command and a below average [Insert whatever secondary pitch he’s trying to perfect so as not to be DFA’ed]. Worley has a plus fastball and I THINK he has plus command though his stats don’t completely agree with that yet. He also has at least 1 average secondary pitch.

This is a great discussion. If I can add one little statistical note to the discussion – I realize that these days mentions of statistics are discouraged on this site, as we all know they “mean nothing,” but I think that the starting point in the discussion should be:

Worley 7.11 K/9
Kendrick 4.01 K/9

Unless you believe that Worley won’t be able to sustain that (he should be able to, based upon minor league performance), THAT’S why Worley is likely to be able to sustain his success to a much greater degree than Kendrick has. Which doesn’t make the excellent discussion of the differences in their stuff wrong or irrelevant – likely it is because of better “stuff” that Worley can maintain a better K%.

As usual a few people around here are a little over the top in terms of expectations on Worley, but I like him a lot & think he will provide great value as a number 4 starter for the Phillies over the next few years.

J-Rod with another good start. He’s upped his Ks a little bit, but has also upped his HRs allowed with 5 in the last 4 starts. HRs were not a problem last year, but they were the year before. Something to monitor for sure.

Could Arias start? I’m sure at this age it’s not hard to make that switch. But he’s been really freakin good out of the bullpen. He’s got good stuff for late-innings, spots the fastball well, uses the breaking ball as a good out pitch.

I asked Morgado today where his velo was last night during his outing since they don’t have a gun in the park here, but he said he wasn’t sure. He said he doesn’t trust the radar gun the team uses to chart pitches because it’s so old. He said when he’s going right he thinks he’s probably sitting 87-89, but has topped out this year at 93. He knows it’s not as hard as he was throwing in college, but it seems to be effective since his first outing.

I would guess he’s consistently low 90s. I don’t think he’s giving himself enough credit. I think he’s the hardest thrower on the staff right now. But that’s just my opinion. I told him I’ve been trying to get management to put a radar gun in here, but he’d rather not have one. He said Chris Truby used to fine him $1 last year everytime he would throw a pitch and turn around and look at the radar gun.

Saw Lakewood play at Delmarva over weekend. Ervis Manzanillo had a rough start but got it together. Threw his first 10 breaking pitches in dirt and gave Cameron Rupp a workout but regularly hit 92 with his fastball. Went 7 innings after throwing 50 pitches in first two innings. Duran looked great at short but he is tiny. Claws had four DP’s. Mattair hit towering grand slam to left…no doubt-about-it!

What’s with Mattair? Has he finally really learned to hit. Is he a prospect again? Wouldn’t it be great to have a young third baseman who can hit and is exceptional with the ( no. I haven’t forgotten Franco). What do you people think?

I think he’ll be back at college by this time next year. He has literally gone backwards. I would never discourage someone from following his dreams, but the decision for him to go back to the minor league baseball was probably ill-advised. He would be better off getting on with his life at school. Just one man’s opinion.

One of the dangers of doing daily recaps is that a player’s most recent game somehow becomes the gauge for his prospect status.

If Biddle is injured, that would explain the loss of velocity. I find it hard to believe that a guy who consistently threw 91-94 in high school is now throwing 84-86 in pro ball. Its not uncommon for young guys to lose their arm strength midway through a season. Orioles prospect Brian Matusz had a great end to last season, was consistently pitching in the 89-92 range and locating his breaking ball. He had an oblique issue this spring, came back and just didn’t have the same velocity. He was 85-87. The Orioles determined his arm wasn’t injured, but that he just hadn’t been able to build up arm strength. This is one of the mysteries of pitchers.

Hopefully Biddle’s loss of velocity is simply a matter of him not being able to hold his velocity deep into his first pro season. If nothing else, its teaching him more how to pitch, because he can’t just blow the ball by everyone. If he’s still throwing 84-86, if that’s his real velocity, at this time next year, then its an obvious concern.

Those guys who throw in the 90s in high school but end up in the mid-80s don’t make the pros, which is why you don’t see them there. Loss of velocity does happen, you just don’t hear about it as much because gaining velocity is more noteworthy. I always find it odd that with every high school pitching prospect you read about, people always talk about how they will add velocity as they get older, when there is also a good chance that their velocity peaked in high school. I guess what I’m saying is it is certainly possible that Biddle has lost velo since high school. There are lots of circumstances where that would not necessarily be the case, but it is not that unusual.

It’s one outing correct? I wouldn’t worry until we’re consistanly hearing that and or someone says he has an injury. It is something to keep an eye on for sure. Straight Fatigue usually starts to show up first in command and leaving balls up and in the middle of the plate.

I repeat, kg at baseballprospectus has noted at least 3 times this year that Biddle’s stuff has been disappointing. Kg’s sources are reliably legit; Biddle has not been dealing grade A stuff this year. He got good reports last year. We’ll see but expectations should reflect accordingly.

In fact, Savery’s surgery was prior to Rice’s 2007 season—he still was able to hit low 90s prior to the 2007 CWS. But for whatever reason, his velo gradually declined in the minors. But agree on Biddle, no reason to panic.

Let’s discuss Andre Kinder for a moment. Who is this guy? James couldn’t find much (or anything) about him after he was drafted in the 42nd round. He had 5K s in 2 innings yesterday and he has 14 Ks in 7 innings pitched. Is he freakin’ Steve Nebraska or what?

The fact that a player – or platoon – would be better than a guy (Ibanez) who is currently on pace to be almost 3 wins below replacement (!!!!!) – is not an argument for going that route. Even apart from the many cheap options available outside the organization which would be an upgrade over Ibanez* and better than a Mayberry/Susdorf platoon, there are other options inside the organization which would be much better, including, yes, even everybody’s favorite whipping boy Ben Francisco. Who, incidentally, over his last 12 games has gone a solid if unspectacular .313/.353/.406. A smallish sample I’ll agree, but those of us who said that Francisco was a victim of bad BIP luck and would increase his BA as the season went on are starting to look vindicated.

A few of us also said the same about Brown – who is .355/.444/.516 over his last 9 games.

*Though in fairness Ibanez did hit a HR as I typed this. He still shouldn’t be a major league regular at this stage of his career.

And in both cases the low BABIP was probably not entirely luck – but also in both cases, it was clear that players with BABIP around .200 and (in Francisco’s case) a decent .288 BABIP over more than 1400 major league AB abs (in Brown’s case) around .330 BABIP in about 2000 minor league ABs

I know it’s about all we have, but I think we tend to focus too much on stats when “evaluating” players, particularly in the lower levels. Was at Disney and saw GCL Phils vs Braves. While Pointer went 0-4 he had 3 quality at bats: Line shot right at right fielder, line drive just foul down the left field then flew out to center, just missing it, then hit a shot down the right field line that the first baseman made a diving stop on. His second time up he struck out on a backdoor curve…saw all junk that time at bat after roping a fb to right his first time up.

I’m sure the argument might be that all that tends to even out over time. However, younger players many times are working on particular things, whether its mechanics, a new pitch, pitch location, etc. Thus, stats tend to be pretty meaningless. While we all want blowout stats, no more than the players themselves, reality is that a player who may not have great stats may be held in very high regard by the coaches/scouts. Just saying.

Of course stats don’t tell the whole story – for minor leaguers especially. But unfortunately, given that scouting reports are often fragmentary, most people who follow this site view only occasional minor league games at best, and very few people who post here really have the ability to scout players … and the fact that we’re necessarily ignorant of a lot of “behind the scenes” information (e.g., “players many times are working on particular things”) and we’re forced to relay more on the stats than we would like to.

That said, your arguments actually support sophisticated statistical analysis versus looking at raw traditional stats. Your Pointer argument is exactly why people look at BABIP data and line drive % – because that kind of luck DOESN’T even out over the course of a season. Similarly, that’s why we look more closely at power/BB/K data, as they tend to be less susceptible to luck. Your argument is also one of the reasons why some of us go on to a boring extent about the perils of making conclusions on small sample sizes.

As for “players many times are working on particular things,” IMO that tends to be true of pitchers far more than hitters. That’s one reason why I am MUCH more cautious about commenting on pitchers – I think for pitchers minor league stats tend to be less reliable than stats for hitters for that very reason.

But the bottom line is that, while OF COURSE stats don’t tell the whole story, it’s absurd to say that “stats tend to be pretty meaningless.” If you look at 1000 successful major league players, 999 – at least – had very impressive minor league stats. They CAN BE deceptive, especially in small samples, and of course we should incorporate – heavily incorporate – subjective information from reliable sources.

anon 2, good analysis by 3up about worley. great location by the kid. pitches are just above average, but his mound presense and location are well above average. sounds like biddle has a dead arm. nepp worley is a good number 4 on this staff, on other staffs he,s a good number 3.

Some things should be noted that with Worley up with the big club and doing bullpen sessions and just plan old talking the game with the likes of Halladay, Lee, Oswalt, Madson, and Hamels can also help his pitches improve. Halladay, Hamels, and Madson have sick change-ups and that could be something where Worley’s change-up could improve upon by talking shop and playing around with pressure points. Oh, and id say if things continue to go well Worley could start working on a cutter as well…..probably not this yr but in the future im sure….

brown , while i,m satisfied with with offense, as i said .250, 15 hr,s 50 rbi,s this year is fine. i can only see him going up gradually each year. but didn,t anyone in this org. teach him defensive fundementals? he,s doing the same thing as last year, turning singles into doubles. bad routes and lack of concentration. it,s no contest between mayberry and francisco. mayberry better offense, defense, speed. it,s time for schwimmer and as much as i dislike defratis” mechanics try him. baez and mr. sinker are brutal.