‘Small-budget movies have more original ideas than Marvel,’ said Dixon, who has written books about independent film and industry trends. Birdman was a technical marvel with its long takes and fluid camera motion. Boyhood took a risk in filming a family story over 12 years. The actors mature before your eyes. “’When you see a movie being made in which Superman meets Batman, that’s the sign of a genre collapsing into its baroque period,’ Dixon said.

‘Captain America and Spider-Man are [creatively] bankrupt.’ He compared it to the horror genre, which began with Frankenstein and Dracula but eventually doubled and tripled up on monsters to the point of ridiculousness.

Dixon said the Oscar shift has been going on for a while. When The Hurt Locker won best picture in 2009, it beat the digitally driven action fantasy Avatar, even though Avatar made 55 times more money — $2.7 billion globally . . . [Dixon noted that] big-budget tentpole movies ‘are committee movies that have to appeal to the lowest common denominator. Whiplash and Still Alice can afford to take risk[s] because they’re not going to break anybody’s bank.’

When they do catch fire, he said, the arty, independent films Oscar loves are increasingly being seen online and at home. ‘That’s the future. We’re going to see a real transformation of the Academy and what constitutes a movie, as film becomes more and more a solitary viewing experience.’”

First off, let’s just remember that although The Academy Awards have managed to elevate themselves into the stratosphere of award ceremonies, they’re industry awards, voted on by members of The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, not not critics, or members of the public. Their main function, now and always, is to highlight Hollywood as the supposed center of the cinematic universe, and underscore the hegemony of Hollywood mainstream filmmaking, while making a few cursory nods to the rest of the world with one “foreign” film – it’s really a three hour advertisement for the American film industry, voted on by those who are a part of that industry – so as Norman Mailer might say, “it’s an advertisement for itself.” In short, unlike Cannes, or Berlin, or the New York Film Festivals, this is strictly an industry event.

That said, it seems to me that in this particularly contest, the big winners will be –

Best Actor, Michael Keaton for BIRDMAN on the “comeback” theory, and also because BIRDMAN got so many nominations throughout the entire ballot;

Best Actress, Julianne Moore for STILL ALICE, which is a fantastic performance in a very small, tightly budgeted film, and a very good choice, although it’s sad to see Marion Cotillard nominated in the same category for the infinitely superior TWO DAYS, ONE NIGHT, but that will never win;

Supporting Actor, J.K. Simmons for WHIPLASH, and absolutely deserving in every sense – Simmons has been a journeyman actor for decades, and here he really gets a chance to shine, and really delivers – a remarkable performance;

Supporting Actress, Patricia Arquette for BOYHOOD;

Adapted Screenplay is wide open, but I’ll go for Damien Chazelle for WHIPLASH;

Best Foreign Film, IDA – a virtual lock;

Best Editing, Tom Cross for WHIPLASH, a dazzling display of virtuoso technique, especially in the final moments of the film;

Best Special Effects, Paul Franklin, Andrew Lockley, Ian Hunter and Scott Fisher for INTERSTELLAR, though personally I think Dan DeLeeuw, Russell Earl, Bryan Grill and Dan Sudick should win for CAPTAIN AMERICA: THE WINTER SOLDIER, which despite its comic book origins is a much more intelligent and thoughtful film than Nolan’s entry;

and I’ll stop there.

BIRDMAN or GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL may well sweep the other categories through sheer momentum; but the whole thing is really up in the air at this point, and these are just my thoughts on the subject. There were so many excellent films that weren’t nominated – as always – so this is just handicapping a very closed field. But we’ll have to wait until February 22nd, 2015 to find out what really happens – so until then, take a look at the ballot yourself, by clicking here or on the image above, and place your bets.

It continues to amaze me how few people understand that this isn’t some sort of national poll of either critics or audiences; it’s an industry event. And yet the public continues to tune in, year after year, to what is essentially a three hour plus commercial for the American film industry, which is all well and good, but one must remember that it marginalizes so many excellent films from around the world, as well as in the United States, into an “all or nothing sweepstakes” in which there can be only one winner in each category. That said, I blogged a few days ago on my initial thoughts on “who would win what”; now that the nominations are actually out, here are some more thoughts on the subject.

Directing, as I suggested in my last post, will go to Alfonso Cuarón for Gravity, though Steve McQueen for 12 Years A Slave is a strong contender, and in my opinion should get the nod; Best Actor to Matthew McConaughey for Dallas Buyers Club, but Bruce Dern is a strong favorite for Nebraska, now that Robert Redford is out of the running; Best Actress to Cate Blanchett for Blue Jasmine, which seems to me pretty much a lock; 12 Years A Slave for Best Picture, again pretty much a lock; Best Supporting Actor to Jared Leto for Dallas Buyers Club, yet again pretty much a lock; and Best Animated Feature to Frozen, one more time, a lock. So that’s all recap of the earlier post.

So now, some new predictions, and here I’m venturing into much riskier territory. These thoughts should be taken with a huge grain of salt, and will be modified by future events that are, at this moment, too far away on the horizon to see; Best Supporting Actress is a toss up between Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle, Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave and June Squibb, for Nebraska, and Ms. Squibb might surprise everyone by taking this one home. Best Original Screenplay is again a long shot, but Bob Nelson’s nomination for Nebraska assures him of a decent shot. However, the other nominees are also very strong, so it’s really too close to call, and the same thing goes for Best Adapted Screenplay.

However, I’ll go out on a limb again and predict Thomas Vinterberg’s superb film The Hunt for Best Foreign Language Film, though this category continues to rankle. There are simply so many superb “foreign” films out there that to pick simply one film to represent the entire world is really a suspect enterprise, but in any event, that’s my pick in this least egalitarian of all Oscar categories. Best Documentary, the nearly unbearable The Act of Killing. Best Cinemtography, Emmanuel Lubezki for Gravity, simply because the film is such a visual tour-de-force; and Best Visual Effects, Gravity again, for obvious reasons.

With the Academy Award nominations not even out yet, here are some very early thoughts.

Since Saving Mr. Banks, Nebraska and Inside Llewyn Davis all struck out at the Golden Globes, that’s a pretty good sign that they won’t do well during Oscar season, either. So, a few Oscar thoughts, admittedly much too early: Twelve Years a Slave for Best Picture; Alfonso Cuaron for Best Director for Gravity, though I don’t agree, but that’s my feeling, though American Hustle and Twelve Years A Slave both have a good shot; Cate Blanchett for Best Actress for her shattering work in Blue Jasmine; Best Actor a tossup between Bruce Dern for Nebraska – he’s campaigning for it pretty hard — Robert Redford for All is Lost, or my choice, Matthew McConaughey for Dallas Buyers Club, but Dern may win as a sentimental favorite, and also for a lifetime of work that has been largely under appreciated; Jared Leto for Supporting Actor for his work as Rayon in Dallas Buyers Club, which is richly deserved; Frozen to win for Best Animated Feature Film, which is absolutely no surprise; and that’s as far as I’m going to go.

About the Author

Wheeler Winston Dixon, Ryan Professor of Film Studies at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, is an internationally recognized scholar and writer of film history, theory and criticism. He is the author of thirty books and more than 100 articles on film, and appears regularly in national media outlets discussing film and culture trends. Frame by Frame is a collection of his thoughts on a number of those topics. To contact Prof. Dixon for an interview, reach him wdixon1@unl.edu or his website, wheelerwinstondixon.com