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Tuesday, May 10, 2011

Headlines Today post-poll survey: Mamata looks set to romp home in West Bengal

Come May 13, the Red bastion in West Bengal is set to collapse with Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee looking set to enter Writers's Building with a dream mandate.

According to the the findings of the Headlines Today-ORG-post poll survery, the Left's 34-year reign in Bengal is all set to end in three days.

The survey projects the Trinamool and Congress are likely to win 210-220 seats, while the Left is likely to manage just 65-70 in a 294-member House.

For the ruling Left, it might be a loss of 153 to 168 seats. Simply put, the Left is staring at a rout.

And it's a total reversal of fortunes for Mamata's anti-Left Mahajot - 159 to 169 seats more than the last Assembly elections of 2006.

As for the vote share of the players in the 2006 elections, the Left was the undisputed champion with 48% vote share.

The Trinamool and Congress had 41% vote share together. Trinammol and Congress had fought separately in 2006. Their numbers have been added to put things in perspective.

In 2011, the grand alliance looks set to turn the table on the Left completely with 48% votes - a total reversal, which sees the Left reduced to just 38% votes share.

The Congress had to put up with a lot of heartburn to accept being a junior partner to Mamata, but it's looking up. There's a massive nine per cent loss of vote share for the Left as compared to the 2006 Assembly elections.

The swing, as per the projections, will be seven per cent for the Trinamool-Congress combine.

The methodology

All efforts have been made to keep this poll as accurate as possible. The survey covered about 14 per cent of the 294 constituencies in West Bengal.

The survey was conducted in randomly selected assembly constituencies across Bengal.

Since exit polls are banned, the voters were approached in their households two days after the polling.

For the sixth and the last round of polling that was held on Tuesday, a pre-poll survey was opted.

A sample of six thousand voters in Bengal was interviewed following systematic ramdom sampling technique.

The sample was proportionately allocated to urban and rural areas to get a suitable sample composition.

Quota samples were also fixed to obtain a suitable proportion of Muslims and SC/ST voters in the sample.

It is pertinent to note that all sample surveys are subject to a margin of error due to inherent limitations of sample surveys. The findings of this survey are subject to a margin of error of three per cent.

For the purpose of projections, the survey used 2009 Lok Sabha election as the reference.