I know many feel the various FTDNA projects are worthless for sources of data. However I disagree. When sufficient data has been recorded, I feel one may begin to draw some inferences, though one must always proceed with caution.

I have been looking at the P312* and L21 projects at FTDNA. Both P312 and L21 were discovered at nearly the same time, so we don't have the issue where testing for one has been going on for several more years than for the other. Also the well known British Isles bias should apply equally well to both projects.

The P312* project has 209 members and the L21 (excluding L21 subclades) has 458.

There are a number of interesting comparisons. The first is that only 40% of P312* hail from the British Isles- 60% are of continental origin. Compare this to L21 (Xsubclades), 75% of which are from the British Isles and only 25% from the continent. If the L21 subclades, which are almost exclusively of British Isles origin, were added in, I expect the difference would be even more striking.

As time allows and assuming anyone is actually interested, I will add a few more observations at a later time

There is a strange tendency for S116* to be poorly represented (on project maps) where L21 is high and vice versa. In Scandinavia there is a distinct divsion between high L21 Norway and high S116* Sweden. In France the S116* comes to a halt in an almost boundary-like line that cordons off the L21-rich NW corner of France. In Iberia S116* and its downstream subclades is high. L21 is very low and what there is is largely on the NE periphery of the penisula. S116* seems well represented in Italy where L21 is very low. In Ireland L21 is very high whle S116* is very low. It seems to me that the only areas where L21 and S116* (and indeed U152 and U106) coexist in a real mix is the Rhineland and adjacent areas.

To my eye S116* behaves more like U106 than L21 in NW Europe. Again, overall L21 does have a 'first man in' look with real strength in the NW Atlantic peripheries in the isles, France and Scandinavia while S116* looks more eastern in those areas. Despite the L21 SNP being downstream of S116, S116* superficially looks like it overlies L21 in NW Europe.

My feeling is:

1. L21 was the first R1b1b2 clade to arrive in the north-west2. In NW Europe S116* overlaid and diluted L21 from the east with a lessening effect as you head west3. S116* did not arrive by the Atlantic route to the isles. I think it is very unlikely that S116* in the isles arrived there from the south/Iberia/by an Atlantic route given that the proportion of S116* is very low in Ireland among those with indigenous surnames than in the east. I think it arrived in the isles by a more northerly route from the east. As for timing, I am much less sure of that.

I know many feel the various FTDNA projects are worthless for sources of data. However I disagree. When sufficient data has been recorded, I feel one may begin to draw some inferences, though one must always proceed with caution.

I have been looking at the P312* and L21 projects at FTDNA. Both P312 and L21 were discovered at nearly the same time, so we don't have the issue where testing for one has been going on for several more years than for the other. Also the well known British Isles bias should apply equally well to both projects.

The P312* project has 209 members and the L21 (excluding L21 subclades) has 458.

There are a number of interesting comparisons. The first is that only 40% of P312* hail from the British Isles- 60% are of continental origin. Compare this to L21 (Xsubclades), 75% of which are from the British Isles and only 25% from the continent. If the L21 subclades, which are almost exclusively of British Isles origin, were added in, I expect the difference would be even more striking.

As time allows and assuming anyone is actually interested, I will add a few more observations at a later time

Again, i think this is evidence that L21 was the first R1b1b2 clade to reach the isles (and perhaps the NW of Europe in general) and that S116* was a more limited overlay from the east whose effect was much diluted the further west one went.

Goldenhind's observations are basically correct, but I would add a couple of observations. Not all R-P312* guys join the R-P312 and Subclades Project. That may be because they feel cladeless; I don't know, but it is a fact. I bump into green R1b1b2a1b entries in other projects all the time whose owners are not members of the R-P312 and Subclades Project. Of course, it's hard to tell how many of those are fully tested, because L21 was not included in FTDNA's Deep Clade-R until late January of 2009, nearly a year after testing for P312 began. There are still some guys out there showing the green R1b1b2a1b who have never been tested for L21.

It is tough to say much about R-P312* because it is a paragroup, not a subclade. Much of its continental component is Iberian, but it ranges up into southern Scandinavia and as far east as Siberia (thus far there is one outlier near Novosibirsk). Another good-sized fraction of R-P312* is composed of the R1b North-South Cluster, and I suspect that is actually a subclade of P312, with an as-yet-undiscovered SNP of its own.

As for L21 in the British Isles, well, it is pretty obvious L21 did pretty well there. I suspect it is the single most frequent R1b1b2 subclade in the British Isles. But there is a very heavy British Isles bias in the databases. Perhaps later today when I get time I will do some bean counting, but I suspect men of British Isles descent are at least 50-60% or more of FTDNA's Ancestral Origins database.

Another thing to keep in mind when comparing R-L21 and R-P312* is that R-L21 appears to be more frequent than R-P312* in general. British Isles L21 may account for 75% of the entries in the R-L21 Plus Project in a very Isles-skewed market, but there is about as much continental L21 that we know about as there is continental P312* that we know about.

P312 and L21 were not discovered simultaneously. P312 was discovered in March of 2008, and testing began that same month. P312 was added to FTDNA's Deep Clade-R within a couple of months of its discovery. L21 was discovered in October of 2008 and was added to the Deep Clade-R in late January of 2009. That may not be the same kind of huge lead that U152 and U106 have enjoyed, but it is enough to have made a difference, since results take anywhere from 1-3 months on average.

.. In Scandinavia there is a distinct divsion between high L21 Norway and high S116* Sweden. ...

Do you have a more distinct breakdown than by country? Looking at old cultural spreads, it is obvious they did not follow modern political boundaries.

The Atlantic Coast of Norway had a larger Bronze Age influence than further inland on the Scandinavian Peninnsula. The areas along the straits of the Kattegat and Skagerrak cross Norway and Sweden and probably have a high population but they might be quite difference than towards the Atlantic or to the east and the Baltic and the Gulf of Bothia.

... It is tough to say much about R-P312* because it is a paragroup, not a subclade. Much of its continental component is Iberian, but it ranges up into southern Scandinavia and as far east as Siberia (thus far there is one outlier near Novosibirsk). Another good-sized fraction of R-P312* is composed of the R1b North-South Cluster, and I suspect that is actually a subclade of P312, with an as-yet-undiscovered SNP of its own....

This is very true. We may find out future that R-P312* is really R-P312-ContinentalCentral A, B and C; R-P312-Iberian A, B and C (to go along with M153 and M167/SRY2627); R-P312-Baltic A & B; R-P312*-NorthSouthContinental; etc., etc.

Other than the North-South Cluster, are there are significant apparent clusters?

Secondly I should have noted I only included those in both projects who listed a geographic origin for their MDKA. I did not include anyone in the colonial sections.

The difference between P312* and L21 is even more striking when one looks at the place of origin within the British Isles.

P312*England 58%Scotland 15%Wales 1%Ireland 15%I was unable to determine the exact place of origin in the Isles for the remaining 11%

L21England 26%Scotland 19%Wales 6%Ireland 49%

I have long maintained, as Rich pointed out, that P312* is a paragroup rather than a subclade, and as such is very likely hiding as yet undiscovered subclades with very different histories and distributions.However I still think the differences between the two groups are pretty interesting. Until I started analyzing them, I didn't realize just how startling they were.

Lastly, I am sorry if the dash in my topic title makes it looks like I am talking about L21-. I'm not. I included all those who were listed as L21 in the project, but none of those who are under the L21 subclades section.

A couple of more comments about the continental distribution of R-P312* versus that of R-L21.

R-P312* has a more southerly center of gravity than R-L21 does. Of the 125 R-P312* continentals listed in the R-P312 and Subclades Project, 27 of them are from the Iberian Peninsula (about 22%), and 9 more are from elsewhere in Southern Europe, for a total of 36 southern Europeans or about 29% of the total continental R-P312*.

If one subtracts that southern European figure (36) from the total number of continental R-P312* (125), 89 continentals remain. (And I did not count as Southern European those R-P312* from southern France.) Here are those figures.

L21, on the other hand, is relatively rare in Southern Europe. There are just 7 Iberian R-L21 thus far, and 10 southern European R-L21 total. If one subtracts that southern European figure (10) from the total number of continental R-L21 (116), 106 continentals remain. Here are those figures.

(I did not include those on my R-L21 European Continent Map who are not part of the FTDNA R-L21 Plus Project; I just used figures from the project.)

Now, if one considers the more northerly orientation of R-L21, then it should not be all that surprising that it is so prevalent in the British Isles. After all, perhaps we make a serious mistake in divorcing the British Isles from the rest of Northern Europe, as we sometimes tend to do.

I am not trying to reduce the value of southern European and Iberian results. On the contrary, I seek them out, and when I find them, I do all I can to recruit them for both projects. I was just pointing out the difference in continental distribution between R-P312* and R-L21, which is part of the topic of this thread.

Here is another thing regarding the percentage of Irish in the British Isles total for L21. It is pretty well known, I think, that participation in genetic genealogy by the North American Irish diaspora is phenomenal. There is nothing to compare with it. That is partly why the R-M222 Project is so huge, even though most will acknowledge that, in the grand scheme of things, R-M222 cannot possibly be that big a proportion of all R1b1b2. Similarly, we have fantastic amounts of Irish participation, which is a good thing, but it has led more than one person to the error of thinking everywhere one finds L21, it can traced back to Ireland (I realize Goldenhind doesn't think that).

Personally, while I am pretty sure Ireland is overwhelmingly L21+, I suspect England will eventually produce a far greater overall proportion of the total British L21 than will Ireland.

This is very true. We may find out future that R-P312* is really R-P312-ContinentalCentral A, B and C; R-P312-Iberian A, B and C (to go along with M153 and M167/SRY2627); R-P312-Baltic A & B; R-P312*-NorthSouthContinental; etc., etc.

Other than the North-South Cluster, are there are significant apparent clusters?[/quote]

I believe your first point is generally correct, though the geographical division may not be that neat.

Secondly, there are in fact two other Nordtvedt clusters, at least one of which is of interest.

His R1b-Nor[se] is a very tight and easily identifiable cluster, which Nordtvedt says is found throughout Scandinavia. To date only three members of the cluster have had deep clade testing, and all three are P312*. I do not believe this is a coincidence. In fact the distinguishing SNP (L238) may already have been found in one of them, but I can't get anyone at FTDNA interested in pursuing it. They seem to be preoccupied with their new Family Finder program.

The second cluster is his R1b-Ub[iquitous] cluster, which he says is found throughout western Europe (hence its name), Iberia to Britain, Germany, Scandinavia etc. It remains a mystery, as there are reasonable matches to the cluster in some different subclades. I tend to believe it does exist, but probably is much narrower than Nordtvedt originally thought.

R1b-Nor distinguishing markers (with modals in brackets) according to Nordtvedt385= 11,13 (11,14)439= 11 (12)441= 14 (13)446= 15 (13)When investigating this, I found that all members of the cluster additionally have the following, not noted by Nordtvedt, but reinforcing the identification of the cluster:576= 19/20 (18)534= 17 (15)

Note 441 is only ordinarily tested by SMGF, where I believe Ken first identified it, but can be specially ordered from FTDNA.

I should have added that every other member of the cluster I clould identify with 67 markers but who had not been deep clade tested had 12 at 492, making U106 highly unlikely.

If you want to see a perfect member of the cluster (a 100% match), look at project member Eriksson of Sweden, tested P312*, Ysearch 29TRV.

Again, i think this is evidence that L21 was the first R1b1b2 clade to reach the isles (and perhaps the NW of Europe in general) and that S116* was a more limited overlay from the east whose effect was much diluted the further west one went.

Allow me to suggest a different scenario, without separate migrations by different R1b subclades. I think it's likely that the initial waves of R1b to reach Britain were of mixed subclades, with the majority being L21, a smaller portion of at least some type of P312* and possibly a few U106 and U152 as well.

I think the relative scarcity of R-P312* in the British Isles, as well as its more southeasterly distribution there, is another nail in the coffin of the idea that L21 arose in the British Isles.

I agree with your point about the relative scarcity of P312* as another piece of evidence against L21 arising in Britain.

However I think the best way to characterize the distribution of P312* there is just more easterly, rather than southeasterly. It seems to be reasonably common in the northeast as well, including the eastern half of Scotland. The area where it appears to me to be the scarcest is the southwest of England and Wales (with the exception of the three in Cornwall).

I agree with your point about the relative scarcity of P312* as another piece of evidence against L21 arising in Britain.

However I think the best way to characterize the distribution of P312* there is just more easterly, rather than southeasterly. It seems to be reasonably common in the northeast as well, including the eastern half of Scotland. The area where it appears to me to be the scarcest is the southwest of England and Wales (with the exception of the three in Cornwall).

I was thinking of R-P312* relative to R-L21. There are just 13 R-P312* in Scotland on my R-P312* Map. There are 14 R-P312* in Ireland, so Ireland actually has one more R-P312* than Scotland does. Of course, many of the R-P312* in Ireland have English-looking surnames.

Looking at the R-P312* Map again, however, it does seem that R-P312* is scattered all over England. There are more in the southeast than elsewhere, but the distribution in England is not as lopsided as I thought I remembered.

Again, i think this is evidence that L21 was the first R1b1b2 clade to reach the isles (and perhaps the NW of Europe in general) and that S116* was a more limited overlay from the east whose effect was much diluted the further west one went.

Allow me to suggest a different scenario, without separate migrations by different R1b subclades. I think it's likely that the initial waves of R1b to reach Britain were of mixed subclades, with the majority being L21, a smaller portion of at least some type of P312* and possibly a few U106 and U152 as well.

A variation on that is my alternative that the continent closest to the isles from NW France to Holland had something similar to what it does now from the first arrival of R1b1b2. The British Isles would then have been settled from a broad front from NW France to Holland with the west of the isles being more settled from the western part of that front (i.e. NW France) and the east from the eastern part of that front (NE France, Belgium, Holland). That would quite nicely expain the difference in R1b1b2 clade frequency in the British Isles. There is no doubt there is a tendency for the different parts of the British Isles to have its nearest continental match in terms of clade proportion at the nearest continental landfall. For example south and east England looks most like the Low Countries with its high U106 presence while very high L21 Ireland and Atlantic Britain looks more like the nearest landfall along the western seaways-NW France. I would hardly be surprising if this is the case.

The alternative is that L21 was dominant (either totally or by a large majority from the start and that the reduction of the proportion of L21/increase in S116*, U152 and U106 is a result of later movements that did not reach the west. There are a number of scenarios for that model. Obviously there is the whole Anglo-Saxon and Viking input. However, there is also the Belgic input into SE England (all the stuff you hear about Belgae in Ireland from amateurs on the web is dubious and not supported by modern scholars). On top of that there is the fact that the east and south of Britain has far more evidence for a beaker period migration from the Low Countries area. If you believe R1b1b2 is older, then its also worth noting that there was probably also some differences in the departure points in the early Neolithic, probably from a similar broad NW French to Low Countries front suggested for the later beaker phase. However, the latter is still the subject of much debate with Alison Sheridan being the archaeologist who has had the best stab at working this out. So, one way or another there are plenty of scenarios for the differences in clade proportions in the isles to have commenced long before the Germanic invasions.

However, the alternative remains that the latter did make a big impact and changed the clade balance significantly in areas affected by them. There are too many uncertain issues to make a call in this. One of the best parallels for the British Isles would be Belgium where half the country experienced a change to Germanic due to migration of Franks (Flemish) and Frisians across the Rhine from Holland while the other half kept the pre-Germanic language and presumably much more of the pre-Germanic Gallo-Roman (Romanised Gaulish) population (with some blurring at the edges). Unfortunately as yet the data for Walloon Belgium is not available and in addition L21 has not yet been used in the studies.

I did a little recruiting from Ysearch last night, trying to bring as many R-P312* into the R-P312 and Subclades Project who are not yet in it as possible. The response has been pretty good.

I believe 12 have joined already. Two of them turned out to be U152+ (their Ysearch entries just said R1b1b2a1b), and two of them are untested for L21 (one of Portuguese ancestry, the other, German). The remaining eight are R-P312*.

I just went into Ysearch and used "Search by Haplogroup", entering R1b1b2a1b and Western Europe, Scandinavia, and Eastern Europe, in succession. I emailed everyone in all of those categories who was not already a member of the project.

I think the relative scarcity of R-P312* in the British Isles, as well as its more southeasterly distribution there, is another nail in the coffin of the idea that L21 arose in the British Isles.

Do you think there is any chance the main body of L21 entered the Isles from scandinavia ? Before L21 made it to northern France?

no. Archaeology identifies no migration from Norway to Britain prior to the Viking Age.

I have to partially disagree here.I am in agreement that the main body of L21 did not enter Britain from Scandinavia.However according to James Campbell there is archaeological evidence of people coming in with the Angles from an area outside the traditional Angle homeland, specifically northern Denmark and southern Norway. So I think it is possible that some portion (probably a pretty small one) of L21 may have come to Britain from Scandinavia before the Vikings.

If some of these people reached the eastern end of the Baltic Sea from further east or south,.. before entering western europe, I wondered if there may have been a split. One group going north, one west.

I did a little recruiting from Ysearch last night, trying to bring as many R-P312* into the R-P312 and Subclades Project who are not yet in it as possible. The response has been pretty good.

I believe 12 have joined already. Two of them turned out to be U152+ (their Ysearch entries just said R1b1b2a1b), and two of them are untested for L21 (one of Portuguese ancestry, the other, German). The remaining eight are R-P312*.

I just went into Ysearch and used "Search by Haplogroup", entering R1b1b2a1b and Western Europe, Scandinavia, and Eastern Europe, in succession. I emailed everyone in all of those categories who was not already a member of the project.

I did a little recruiting from Ysearch last night, trying to bring as many R-P312* into the R-P312 and Subclades Project who are not yet in it as possible. The response has been pretty good.

I believe 12 have joined already. Two of them turned out to be U152+ (their Ysearch entries just said R1b1b2a1b), and two of them are untested for L21 (one of Portuguese ancestry, the other, German). The remaining eight are R-P312*.

I just went into Ysearch and used "Search by Haplogroup", entering R1b1b2a1b and Western Europe, Scandinavia, and Eastern Europe, in succession. I emailed everyone in all of those categories who was not already a member of the project.

Needless to say, it took awhile.

Great. Your efforts are very much appreciated.

Thanks!

Since last night, if I am counting correctly, 17 new members have been added to the R-P312 and Subclades Project. Two were U152+, five have not been tested for L21 yet (one of those is R1b North-South, though, so he's R-P312*), but the rest are R-P312*.

I got them all sorted out, but I am short on time right now, so I will have to send them all welcome emails later.