Tuesday, July 19, 2011

New Hampshire Miscellaneous Poll

-There are a million New Hampshire Republican primary polls out there right now so when we polled the state earlier this month we decided we may as well ask about the 2016 Democratic race too. The answer is not surprising: if Hillary Clinton decided to make another run at the White House she would start out as an overwhelming favorite. 52% of primary voters said she'd be their choice from the options we gave, followed by Joe Biden at 16%. No one else registered in double digits- Andrew Cuomo at 9%, Russ Feingold at 3%, Deval Patrick at 2%, Cory Booker at 1%, and Brian Schweitzer and Mark Warner each at 0%.

Those numbers largely reinforce what we found when we asked about a similar pool of candidates in Iowa in April. There 44% picked Clinton to 13% for Biden, and again no one else in double digits. If nothing changes over the next few years- and goodness knows it could- Clinton's going to be way out in front to start if she decides to make the race.

Since it seems quite likely neither Clinton nor Biden will actually run we also asked a version of the question in New Hampshire without them. In that permutation Cuomo leads the way with 30% to 18% for Feingold, 13% for Patrick, 2% each for Booker and Warner, and 1% for Schweitzer. That may be an indication that Cuomo's work in his first 6 months as Governor really has made national waves. Or it could also just be an indication that he has a famous family name.

-New Hampshire Republicans made enormous gains in the Legislature last year. Now voters appear ready to go back in the other direction in 2012. Democrats lead the generic ballot in the state by a 48-45 margin. That actually represents progress for the Republicans, who trailed by 49-41 on that count when PPP last polled the state in April. But that spread would still result in a huge number of seats- and quite possibly the majority- moving back to the Democrats. The key to the party's improvement relative to last year? It leads 42-41 with independent voters- that's a modest advantage but it's a far cry from the huge margins the GOP was winning those voters by last year.

-New Hampshire is one state where there's an outright majority in favor of gay marriage. 51% of voters in the state think it should be legal to only 38% who think it should be outlawed. Two thirds of voters under 30 support it but what might be most remarkable is that even seniors do by a 45/44 margin. That's quite a different story than we see in most states.

If you extend the question to asking about both gay marriage and civil unions 80% of voters in the state support some form of legal recognition for same sex couples with 45% saying that full marriage rights is their top choice and the other 35% preferring civil unions. Only 19% oppose all recognition.

Even among Republicans in New Hampshire 67% support legal recognition for gay couples. They largely prefer civil unions- 50% of GOP voters- with 17% in favor of marriage. These numbers suggest that gay bashing is not likely to be a winner for Republican Presidential candidates in New Hampshire next year.

-The state's 2 Senators have very similar and pretty solid numbers. Neither is overwhelmingly popular but they're both on positive ground and that's not a bad place for an elected official to be these days. Kelly Ayotte's approval is a +6 spread at 44/38 and Jeanne Shaheen's breaks down at +5 at 47/42.

12 comments:

Perhaps the variables are the VARIETY of candidates that each polling company includes. For example, If one company includes Perry, another doesn't, who does Perry take from in the poll he's included in and who benefits from the poll he's left out of?

Until you guys ALL GET TOGETHER and each run ONE SET with declared candidates only, there will be very little to compare.

I can't thank you enough for polling the same-sex marriage questions. It's truly fascinating to see the results on a state-by-state basis, and the polls that you have conducted in the various states that you have surveyed recently are beginning to provide a much clearer picture of the complex and nuanced views that our country has, since states vary so widely on the issue. It's very much appreciated!!

"Perhaps the variables are the VARIETY of candidates that each polling company includes."

That certainly makes it more difficult to compare polls, but this should become less of a problem as we get closer to the election.

However, I think the divide goes beyond just which candidates are included. For instance, PPP has stronger Bachmann numbers compared to other pollsters even with Perry and Palin in the mix. In Iowa none of the recent polls include Palin or Perry, but Magellan still has Bachmann doing much better relative to Romney than the live telephone interview polls.

Folks, at this point, all the candidates we include are declared except Perry and Palin, and it's very likely Perry gets in soon, and then we always do a "without Palin" version. So I'm not sure what the complaint is.

I just want to echo a previous commenter to thank you for polling on gay marriage. You guys are doing the best job on polling that issue at the state level.

One complaint: New Hampshire already has gay marriage and the main issue there is whether the GOP-controlled legislature should repeal it. So I would have framed a question in terms of support or opposition to repeal. When you poll in any of the six SSM states or DC, you should similarly frame the question that way.