The driver behind the rocketing U.S. stock market probably isn’t what you think it is Robert Shiller looks at CAPE and says don’t credit the ‘Trump effect’ or the tax cutsRobert Shiller says it isn’t the “Trump effect” or the recent tax cuts.

Here’s what the Netflix haters don’t get about the soaring stockWith the government shutdown over, investors today are homing in on earnings — plus how the Davos crowd is solving the world’s problems. Today’s call comes from a Netflix bull after the company’s latest results.

Stock markets don’t need a ‘trigger’ to correct, says Robert Shiller Market historians try to explain 1929, and they just can’t, Shiller tells CNBCWhen the long-running bull market finally runs into a correction, investors may very well never see it coming, says Noble Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller.

How trading bitcoin could actually ruin your mental health Distress during the ups and downs of trading bitcoin. Where have we seen this before?Distress during the ups and downs of trading bitcoin. Where have we seen this before?

Here’s some more bad news for pension funds on future U.S. stock-market returns Even permanently high valuations wouldn’t improve the outlook for returns, blogger arguesExtremely high stock valuations are often associated with low or even negative long-term returns, largely due to expectations that valuations levels revert to the mean. But returns are likely to disappoint even if valuations were to remain elevated, according to one financial blogger

Owning a home can give you a place to hide from a bear market for stocks Residential real estate typically holds its value when stocks slumpResidential real estate typically holds its value when stocks slump, writes Mark Hulbert.

Just add blockchain? You know you’re in a dangerous bubble when... Blockchain mania has parallels with the dot.com boom—and that didn’t end too well At the peak of the internet bubble two decades ago, there was a mad rush of companies crowing about their e-commerce ambitions and rebranding themselves as “.com” players in an effort to cash in on the hype that pushed market to dizzying heights. We’re seeing the same kind of thing now with blockchain.

How much do you really know about real estate? Take this quiz Can you buy a piece of a shopping mall? See question No. 2Is real estate a countercyclical sector? Answers to these and other questions in our quiz.

What could go wrong in 2018? Plenty Everything looks bright now, but watch out for unexpected storm cloudsThe economy and markets ended 2017 on a high note, but that doesn’t seem 2018 will be uneventful. Caroline Baum previews some possible troubles that could arise.

This 1 chart shows the U.S. stock market is the most expensive in the world Only one stock market can ‘arguably make a case’ for being cheap, according to SchrodersIt was basically impossible for stock-market investors to lose money in 2017. In 2018, it might be difficult not to.

Robotics ETFs, big gainers in 2017, could see another boost from the tax bill Two ETFs related to automation have more than doubled the return of the S&P 500 this yearWhile a number of prominent economists have expressed concern over the impact that automation and robotics could have on the labor market over the coming years, it’s a trend that’s been paying off for investors this year, and which could accelerate thanks to the recently passed tax bill.

‘Brave’ asset managers must invest in emerging markets: GMO’s Grantham ‘When there are great opportunities…you must make big bets’: GranthamOver the next decade, only the truly brave will be able to keep up with their required return commitment, according to Jeremy Grantham, co-founder and head of asset allocation team at GMO.

When everyone is this complacent, it’s time to worry about your money, your job, your home Risks far more dangerous than a decade ago, Stephen Roach arguesToday’s consensus of complacency will be seriously tested in 2018, and the risks are far more dangerous than a decade ago, warns Stephen Roach.

Automation could impact 375 million jobs by 2030, new study suggests 39 million workers in the U.S. could be displaced, and that’s the midpoint scenarioVanguard’s chief global economist said it was the most important trend of his lifetime. Nobel prize-winning economist Robert Shiller said it was the single-most worrisome issue about the economy’s prospects going forward.

DoubleLine fund doubles the returns of rivals with the help of economics Nobel winner Robert Shiller The DoubleLine Shiller Enhanced CAPE Fund doesn’t directly own stocks, yet is in the top 1% of the large-value equity fund categoryThe DoubleLine Shiller Enhanced CAPE Fund doesn’t directly own stocks, yet is in the top 1% of the large-value equity fund category. By Phil van Doorn.

Brace for more tech pain — and more cheer for the stock market’s sad sacksWe’re oh so close to December and — right on cue — hearing chatter about locking in profits on 2017’s big winners, while giving the losers another chance. The bull market may be starting “a sub-surface rotation,” says our call of the day.

Beneath a calm surface, the stock market is undergoing a major change Falling correlations could make life easier for active managersIf there’s one word that would seem to describe the U.S. stock market in 2017, it’s this: quiet. But a crucial shift may be taking place below the surface.

Here’s one thing the bitcoin frenzy has in common with the dot-com bubble Shares of companies that change their names to include the word ‘blockchain’ see big boostsWhether bitcoin is in a bubble may be up for debate. But it is hard to deny there is some form of investor mania happening when it comes to companies that promise to capitalize on the blockchain technology.

4 steps to financial success, from Nobel Prize-winning economists Our brains often work against us when it comes to moneyWe can use what these behavioral economists have learned to set ourselves up for success.

Why renewed stock-market pessimism is a reason to be optimistic Back-to-back weekly pullbacks shake off excess optimismThe two consecutive weekly stock-market losses, albeit very modest, have been one of the positive things for Wall Street

British Airways will board economy flyers based on the price of their ticket The increasingly hierarchical nature of flying quietly puts pressure on passengers to pay moreThe increasingly hierarchical nature of flying quietly puts pressure on passengers to pay more.

Robert Shiller: Passive investing is a ‘pseudoscience’ and it’s bad for markets It’s a ‘chaotic system,’ Shiller says of the funds which have saved consumers billionsRobert Shiller, the Nobel Prize-winning Yale economics professor, is clearly no fan of passive investing, which he describes as a “chaotic system” that’s taking a toll on the business landscape across the United States.

Bonds are from Venus; stocks are from Mars Wild optimism fuels big gains in equities, but fixed-income isn’t impressedOn the planet Mars, the stock market is overflowing with optimism. Over on planet Venus, the bond market will have none of it. By Caroline Baum

Why investors shouldn’t rely on sentiment indicators for market-timing ‘Sentiment is a tricky thing’, says Bespoke’s macrostrategist PearkesSeveral measures of Wall Street sentiment peaked this year and rolled over without a corresponding pullback in the stock market, underlining the faultiness of metrics used for timing the market that have so far betrayed Wall Street investors.

Investors shouldn’t fear a ‘curl-your-toes’ bear market soon, says Bernstein Richard Bernstein, CEO of Richard Bernstein Advisors, lists several factors that make a bear market unlikely It has been years since the U.S. stock market has experienced a bear market, and despite major indexes trading near records and valuations that are stretched by many metrics, that is a streak that doesn’t look set to end soon.

What could derail the stock-market rally? Here’s one thing to watch Amazon, Alphabet to report results in a busy week for earnings seasonThe U.S. stock market keeps chugging to new highs. What could halt its progress?

Retail investors see this as the ‘best time ever’ to jump into stocks. Time to worry? Bullish sentiment spiked over the past week: AAII surveyThe “most hated bull market in history” is starting to get some love, which isn’t necessarily something to cheer.

Stock market bulls are counting on solid quarterly earnings More than 200 companies report over next two weeksThe U.S. stock market greeted the start of the earnings season with continued optimism. All three main benchmarks reached record levels as the first batch of companies reported quarterly results

Many economists are still hostile to Nobel winner Richard Thaler’s work Adding psychology to the study of economics muddies the waters, they sayAdding psychology to the study of economics muddies the waters, they say. By Robert J. Shilller.

Is this the melt-up in the stock market before Wall Street’s meltdown? J.P. Morgan Chase, Citigroup and Bank of America are among the banks set to deliver third-quarter results next weekIf stock markets die in euphoria, as Sir John Templeton once famously said, then what transpired on CNBC’s Halftime Report on Friday may be the closest to the sort of exuberance that might make the British investor and fund manager’s ears prick up.

Waste time on Facebook and Twitter, and become a better investor Economist Robert Shiller says you can glean insights from social groupsEconomist Robert Shiller says you can glean insights from social groups. By Michael Brush.

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