Coronal holes

A recurrent coronal hole (CH260) in the southern hemisphere with a trans
equatorial extensionn will likely
rotate into an Earth facing position on March 9-11.

Processed SOHO/EIT 195 image at 21:37 UTC on February 13. The
darkest areas on the solar disk are likely coronal holes.

Forecast

The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet on March 10-11. Quiet to minor storm conditions are
possible on March 12-14 due to effects from CH260.

Coronal holes (1)

Coronal mass ejections (2)

M and X class flares (3)

1) Effects from a coronal hole could reach Earth
within the next 5 days. When the high speed stream has arrived the
color changes to green.
2) Effects from a CME are likely to be observed at Earth within 96
hours.
3) There is a possibility of either M or X class flares within the next
48 hours.

Propagation

Daily monitoring will not resume until a local noise problem (related to
construction work on a neighboring property) has been fixed. Occasional
monitoring reports will be submitted when propagation is good.

February 18, 2007: Strong signals were noted from a number of USA east coast
stations as well as from stations located in the Canadian Atlantic provinces.
CFDR on 780 kHz was particularly strong.

Data for all numbered solar regions according to the Solar Region
Summary provided by NOAA/SEC. Comments are my own, as is the
STAR spot count (spots observed at or inside a few hours before
midnight) and data for regions not numbered by SEC or where SEC has
observed no spots.
SEC active region numbers in the table below and in the active region
map above are the historic SEC/USAF numbers.

Active region

Date numbered

SEC
spot
count

STAR
spot
count

Location at midnight

Area

Classification

Comment

10945

2007.02.26

S07W82

plage

Total spot count:

0

0

SSN:

0

0

Monthly solar cycle data

Month

Average solar
flux at Earth

International sunspot number

Smoothed sunspot number

2000.04

184.2

125.5

120.8
cycle 23 sunspot max.

2000.07

202.3

170.1

119.8

2001.12

235.1

132.2

114.6 (-0.9)

2005.12

90.7

41.1

23.0 (-1.9)

2006.01

83.4

15.3

20.8 (-2.2)

2006.02

76.5

4.9

18.6 (-2.2)

2006.03

75.4

10.6

17.3 (-1.3)

2006.04

89.0

30.2

17.1 (-0.2)

2006.05

80.9

22.2

17.3 (+0.2)

2006.06

76.5

13.9

16.3 (-1.0)

2006.07

75.7

12.2

15.3 (-1.0)

2006.08

79.0

12.9

15.6 (+0.3)

2006.09

77.8

14.5

(15.6 predicted, +0.0)

2006.10

74.3

10.4

(14.4 predicted, -1.2)

2006.11

86.3

21.5

(12.8 predicted, -1.6)

2006.12

84.5

13.6

(11.9 predicted, -0.9)

2007.01

83.3

16.9

(11.5 predicted, -0.4)

2007.02

77.7

10.6

(11.4 predicted, -0.1)

2007.03

73.0 (1)

4.3 (2)

(11.6 predicted, +0.2)

1) Running average based on the
daily 20:00 UTC observed solar flux
value at 2800 MHz.
2) Unofficial, accumulated value based on the Boulder (NOAA/SEC)
sunspot number. The official international sunspot number is typically
30-50% lower.

This report has been prepared by Jan
Alvestad. It is based partly on my own observations and analysis,
and
partly on data from some of these solar data sources.
All time references are to the UTC day. Comments and suggestions are
always welcome.