Author: SSESSMENTS

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) forecasts that energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the US will be lower on an annual basis through 2021.

According to EIA, energy-related CO2 emissions decreased by 2.1% in 2019 and is expected to decline further by 2.0% in 2020 and 1.5% in 2021. If the forecast holds, the US will emit fewer than 5 billion metric tons of energy-related CO2 in 2021. This level was seen last time in 1991.

EIA expects petroleum-related CO2 emissions to be stagnant this year after slightly decreasing in 2019. It is expected to decrease slightly again in 2021. In the transportation sector, improved vehicle efficiency will weigh on petroleum use in this sector, despite a nearly 1% annual growth in vehicle miles travelled (VMT).

Natural gas-related CO2 emissions rose 4.2% last year. EIA forecasts that it will increase by 1.4% in 2020 and decline by 1.7% in 2021. EIA also projects CO2 emissions from coal to drop by 10.8% this year, extending last year’s 12.7% decline. It will extend the decline in 2021, albeit at a slower rate of about 2.7%.

According to EIA, the switch from coal-fired generation to more efficient natural gas-fired generation and renewable energy has driven the decrease in energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) during recent years.

EIA predicts this trend to continue over the projection period, with renewables taking more share in US total electricity generation. According to its report, coal and natural gas electric generation will account for 59% of US overall electricity generation in 2020 and 58% in 2021, compared to 63% in 2018 and 62% in 2019.