&nbsp577 &nbspFXCA20 KWBC 271106 &nbspPMDCA &nbsp &nbspTROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS &nbspNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD &nbsp706 AM EDT FRI OCT 27 2017 &nbsp &nbspPRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM OCT 27/06 &nbspUTC: A TUTT REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE CENTERING ON &nbspA CLOSED LOW JUST NORTH OF CURACAO/ARUBA. POLAR TROUGH TO THE &nbspNORTH...MEANWHILE...IS STREAMING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC/THE &nbspBAHAMAS. DURING THE DAY TODAY...THE POLAR TROUGH IS TO MIGRATE &nbspEAST WHILE YIELDING TO A BUILDING RIDGE. AS IT STREAMS NORTH OF &nbspTHE FORECAST AREA IT IS TO BRIEFLY PHASE WITH THE TUTT TO THE &nbspSOUTH. THIS...IN-TURN...WILL LEAD TO RAPID EROSION OF TRADE WINDS &nbspCAP ENVELOPING THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE BUILDING &nbspRIDGE WILL THEN STEER THE TUTT/TUTT LOW TO THE WEST...MEANDERING &nbspNORTH OF LA GUAJIRA PENINSULA LATER ON SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY &nbspMORNING...NEARING JAMAICA LATER ON MONDAY. AS THE TUTT MEANDERS &nbspAWAY...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE TO REMAIN FAVORABLE AND &nbspCONDUCIVE FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO BUILD ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST &nbspAREA THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. ON TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...BUILDING RIDGE &nbspIS TO THEN STRENGTHEN THE TRADE WINDS CAP...FAVORING EROSION OF &nbspAVAILABLE MOISTURE WITH PWAT CONTENT FORECAST TO DECREASE TO AN &nbspINCH. &nbsp &nbspAT LOW LEVELS...THE TUTT TO THE SOUTH SUSTAINS AN INDUCED TROUGH &nbspTHAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLES EARLY THIS MORNING. A PLUME &nbspOF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE...WITH SATELLITE &nbspDERIVED PWAT CONTENT OF AROUND TWO INCHES. NOTE THAT THIS WAVE &nbspENTERED THE FORECAST AREA LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED... &nbspRESULTING IN A LATER ONSET OF THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND A LOWER &nbspTHREAT OF AN MCS FORMING OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. &nbspNEVERTHELESS...THIS IS TO SUSTAIN MODERATE TO HEAVY CONVECTION AS &nbspIT PULLS ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLES TO EASTERN PUERTO RICO LATER THIS &nbspMORNING...AND HEAVY AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN INTERIOR &nbspPORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO/GUAJATACA BASIN. THE WAVE REACHES THE MONA &nbspPASSAGE LATER ON SATURDAY. ON ITS WAKE...THE LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS &nbspARE TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH THE PREVAILING EASTERLY TRADES &nbspTO GRADUALLY RETURN BY MIDDAY ON MONDAY. IN RESPONSE...MOST ACTIVE &nbspCONVECTION IS TO THEN CLUSTER ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO &nbspRICO BETWEEN AGUADILLA/AGUADA AND BARCELONETA/MANATI. &nbsp &nbspGUY...NMS (BELIZE) &nbspPECK...MS (JAMAICA) &nbspDAVISON/GALVEZ...WPC (USA) &nbsp &nbsp