Jon Lester to the O's and 2 other big MLB trades that should happen

Though MLB’s annual July 31 trade deadline tends to produce more rumors and speculation than actual roster changes, it nonetheless creates an enjoyable opportunity to play general manager.

And so while fans — this one included — endlessly refresh Twitter and MLB Trade Rumors for news, here are a few utterly speculative deals that seem to make sense for both sides. They almost certainly won’t happen, but they probably should:

After failing to sign veteran lefty Jon Lester to a contract extension in the offseason, the last-place Red Sox risk losing him to free agency in the winter and receiving only a compensatory draft pick in return. Since they can probably do better than that in trade, they appear increasingly likely to deal him.

Sources: #RedSox getting “hit hard” on both Lester and Lackey from most contenders, including AL East clubs.

Lester has been mostly good and almost always healthy throughout his career, and he has pitched like an ace in 2014.

The Orioles, meanwhile, sit in first place in a down year for the perennially tough AL East. And with Nelson Cruz, J.J. Hardy and Nick Markakis all possibly bound for free agency after the season, this looks like the Orioles’ time to push for the postseason.

Adding Lester would give them a Game 1 starter for if and when they get there. And though Drew hasn’t hit yet in spotty playing time in Boston this season, the Sox could throw him in to sweeten the deal — Drew indicated a willingness to play second base in the winter, and Baltimore hasn’t gotten much offense at all from Jonathan Schoop at the keystone.

The Orioles have a handful of well-regarded pitching prospects like Hunter Harvey and Eduardo Rodriguez that could appeal to the Sox. Lester’s value is limited because he’ll amount to a rental, but he also could prove best available starting pitcher on the market this month.

2. Dodgers outfielder Matt Kemp to the Mariners

(USA TODAY Sports Images)

A logjam in the Dodgers’ outfield has had trade rumors swirling around Kemp for a while now. Kemp can still hit a bit, but not well enough to justify his massive paycheck when Los Angeles also has Yasiel Puig, Carl Crawford, Andre Ethier and Scott Van Slyke in the mix, not to mention prospect Joc Pederson looking ready for prime time.

Right now, Matt Kemp is a backup plan for the Mariners. But their interest is very real. Idea would be to transition him to DH eventually.

The Mariners have stayed on the fringes of contention despite one of the worst offenses in the American League. Kemp would instantly become their best hitting outfielder and an upgrade in the cleanup spot over recently acquired DH Kendrys Morales.

A deal seems unlikely, though, because the Dodgers still owe Kemp over $21 million per year through the 2019 season. Any acquiring team would likely need the Dodgers to pick up a hefty chunk of Kemp’s contract and/or package Kemp with an inexpensive young player to sweeten the deal.

3. Mets second baseman Daniel Murphy to the Giants

(USA TODAY Sports Images)

Murphy, the Mets’ lone All-Star representative in 2014, is a popular player in Queens and under team control through the end of the 2015 season. They could look to sign Murphy to a contract extension, but they have organizational depth at second base that they lack elsewhere.

A young infielder with limited range but a promising bat, Wilmer Flores could provide the Mets something like a right-handed version of Murphy sometime soon. And 20-year-old Dilson Herrera has hit .320 with an .830 OPS across the Class A Advanced and Class AA levels in 2014.

The Giants’ second-base woes this season now have them using Dan Uggla in the spot.

Murphy appears to fit San Francisco’s primary deadline need, but it’s harder to figure what the Giants could offer New York in return. San Francisco’s best prospects are pitchers and catchers — the two spots the Mets are deepest with young players. And the Mets have heated up this month, and could hang on to Murphy in the hopes they crawl back into the race.

The Orioles could use a starting pitcher, and the Red Sox have perhaps the best one on the market.

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