Indonesian mid-CV thermal coal appears to be getting the upper hand over high-ash Australian coal in a battle for supremacy in the Chinese imports market, according to an analysis of S&P Global Platts price data.

China’s Communist Party on Wednesday unveiled the new party leadership for the next five years after the 19th CCP Congress closed on October 24, with the expectation that the world’s second-biggest energy consumer would broadly keep its energy policies unchanged.

The Communist Party Congress is the most important political event in China as it rolls out the country’s development strategy and reveals members in the highest decision-making body for the next five years — the new Politburo Standing Committee.

Nearly 10 months on from its launch in January 2017 the North East Asia Thermal coal index, or NEAT daily price index for short, continues to go from strength to strength, bringing increasing transparency to spot prices in the Japan, South Korea and Taiwan markets.

Spot pricing is becoming increasingly important in the Japanese thermal coal market as the Chrysanthemum kingdom, as Japan is known, opens its domestic electricity market to competition and market forces.

“I used to swim in this bay when I was a kid but there’s nowhere to swim anymore,” the hotel driver said on the way to Manila airport, pointing to the hotels and giant shopping malls that now occupy the Bay City area of the Philippine capital.

Over lunch at a recent energy conference, a fellow attendee asked where I worked and what I did, and I explained that I lead coverage of the US thermal coal market for S&P Global Platts. The gentleman, who worked for a group that finances renewable energy projects, had several questions about coal, and each answer seemed to only increase his incredulity.

“So, let me understand,” said the gentleman finally. “You are bullish on coal?”

South Korea’s new president sent shockwaves through the Asia thermal coal market when, on his election in May, he announced his intention to halt the building of new coal-fired power plants and to phase out some of the country’s ageing coal-fired generators.

Moon Jae-in set June 1 as the date for the temporary closure of eight coal-fired plants aged more than 30 years, and with that deadline fast approaching, thermal coal market watchers are taking a close interest in the shutdowns.

They say the past is a good guide to the future, providing a map by which to navigate unknown terrain ahead.

This may be so with regard to the impact of Queensland cyclones on prices for Australian thermal coal shipped from the port of Newcastle, the main reference point for the trade, according to an analysis using S&P Global Platts data.

Comedy actor Peter Sellers knew a thing or two about comic timing and delivery needed to make a good joke shine. After all he played Inspector Clouseau, Dr Stranglove, and Dr Fritz Fassbender among his many famous Hollywood characters. That’s why when Sellers sang the old Cockney London musical hall song Any Old Iron, he was able to deliver with aplomb the line, ‘You look neat. Talk about a treat! You look so dapper from your napper* to your feet.’

Neat now has a different meaning to Platts, but of course this would be unknown to Sellers and the Cockney musical hall songwriters of Any Old Iron.

The speed of recovery in coal prices has caught almost everyone by surprise. Since the beginning of the year, thermal coal prices have more than doubled; South African coal sold FOB Richard’s Bay has jumped from below $50/mt mid-January to $99.7/mt November 9.