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Healthy MD/Weak HD Scenario Again in July: ACT

Class 8 net orders in July fell 20% month-over-month, but contracted nearly 58% on a year-over-year basis to a total of 10,358 units, and medium-duty net orders totaled 15,364 units, rising 1% m/m and y/y, according to the latest State of the Industry report by ACT Research Co. (ACT).

Aug 22, 2016

Class 8 net orders in July fell 20% month-over-month, but contracted nearly 58% on a year-over-year basis to a total of 10,358 units, and medium-duty net orders totaled 15,364 units, rising 1% m/m and y/y, according to the latest State of the Industry report by ACT Research Co. (ACT).

“Outside of the bright spot that continues to be demand for vehicles in Mexico, July’s batch of Class 8 market indicators provided no sign of near-term relief. The U.S. and Canadian tractor (especially sleeper) markets remain overcapacitized,” said Kenny Vieth, President and Senior Analyst.

“Historically, July is the worst order month of the year. To improve interpretation, ACT seasonally adjusts its data. July’s 10,400 Class 8 net orders (124k SAAR) seasonally adjusts to 12,000 units (142k SAAR). Actual or adjusted, we have to go back to Q1’10 to find comparably weak volumes.”

Vieth said that steady-as-she-goes sentiment remains in place for medium-duty vehicle markets.

“After an eight-month run in which Classes 5-7 orders averaged 21,300 units/month, driven in part by new product introductions, orders have cooled. In July, total Classes 5-7 net orders rose 1% m/m and y/y to 15,364 units, with seasonal adjustment boosting the total to 18,200 units.”