11-1 starts by Texans, Falcons no guarantee of Super seasons

The Texans are 2-0 on the road in prime time this season after having never before won a night game away from Reliant Stadium. ( Smiley N. Pool / Houston Chronicle )

And the South shall rise again? If the AFC’s front-running Texans and the NFC-leading Atlanta Falcons stay on track to reach the NFL’s finish line in New Orleans on Feb. 3, it will be the first of 47 Super Bowls between two teams from Dixie.

At 11-1, the Texans have lived up to their preseason expectations, chasing 2011’s breakthrough season with an even more compelling one this fall; the 11-1 Falcons have by any measure exceeded theirs. Together, they bring to 14 the number of teams to have reached the season’s three-quarter pole with no more than a single loss since 2002, the year the Texans brought pro football back to Houston after a five-year hiatus.

Still, a word of warning here: Neither city should yet be stocking up on confetti for a championship parade. Only two of the previous dozen to start 12-0 or 11-1 have claimed the Lombardi Trophy ­­— and only half of them even managed to win a playoff game.

Fallen on hard times

But enough gloom and doom. Whatever happens going forward, the Falcons and the Texans have enjoyed a delightful autumn, which is more than can be said for teams such as the Lions, Titans, Chargers, Eagles and Cardinals, among many other also-rans.

Detroit’s realistic Super Bowl aspirations are gone after a 4-8 start. Ditto erstwhile “Dream Team” Philadelphia, with Andy Reid’s 14-year tenure seemingly coming to an end on top of the likely departure of Michael Vick. The 3-9 Eagles have dropped seven in a row, unprecedented in Reid’s Philly years.

Tennessee, in turn, has made a U-turn from its promising start under Mike Munchak a year ago, possibly imperiling the former Oiler and Hall of Fame guard’s job after he went 9-7 in his first season. Mystifying San Diego continues to disappoint — surely this will be end of the Chargers road for Norv Turner — and Arizona is making things unduly tense for Ken Whisenhunt by chasing a 4-0 start with a 0-8 fall.

Then we have the win-a-couple, lose-a-couple Cowboys, who also have put their young coach, Jason Garrett, on a short string. Worse, the maddeningly inconsistent Tony Romo holds the scissors. Romo has thrown 11 interceptions in three of his starts and only four in the other nine. He’s great or terrible, and the 6-6 Cowboys obligingly follow his lead.

Hurting but dangerous

The 49ers suddenly seem a tad conflicted themselves and, now saddled with a quarterback controversy, could go either way. With heart-of-the-defense linebacker Brian Urlacher injured, the Bears just appear to be going the wrong way, having dropped three of four after turning the corner at 7-1. The defending Super Bowl champion Giants are 1-3 since midseason as well.

All this is good news for the Falcons. Bad news for the Falcons is Green Bay’s surge. And excitement over the Texans’ 6-0 run — after the Packers ended their five-game, season-opening winning streak with a 42-24 Reliant Stadium rout — must be tempered by the fact the Patriots, once 3-3, are on a 6-0 roll, too, and the Broncos, who dropped three of their first five, have won eight in a row.

Remember the three interceptions Peyton Manning threw in the first quarter Sept. 17 in Atlanta?

Well, he has thrown six interceptions in 39 quarters since.

And then there’s Tom Brady, who’s chasing that same piece of MVP hardware as Manning. Brady has suffered four picks in 460 passing attempts and presents a most interesting challenge for the Texans’ battered secondary Monday night in Foxborough, Mass.

The Texans are 2-0 on the road in prime time this season after having never before won a night game away from Reliant Stadium. This represents great progress. But there’s much hard work to be done before a happy ending is to be had. Among the top seven teams in both conferences, the Texans are saddled with the most difficult finishing schedule. Figures.