Not trying to be spiteful to our in conference bros, but they're walking a razor's edge to even get to the tournament this year. They can't drop any of the games they have left and really need a win in the Big 12 tourney. Do some blind resumes with Iowa State in them. They don't have much wiggle room.

Furthermore, that 3 point percentage for them has not traveled well at all. If they can play like they do at Hilton, they're going to be an early round spoiler. If they play like they have been on the road, it certainly doesn't look good.

True, for some reason, though, I just always assume programs with histories of success can never really be dark horses. I'm not sure if that sentiment is shared, but that's how I've always looked at the matter.

Are you basing this off of last night's performance? Because I can assure you, Duke has pretty good defense this year and are usually very clutch with free throws. And with Ryan Kelly and Mason Plumlee down low, they're not as reliant on 3s as they used to be.

For all the talk on this sub about how much parity there is and how crazy this tournament will be, none of your are making even remotely unique picks. Also, teams like VCU and St. Louis do not count as dark houses, as everyone is well aware of how good they are.

Agreed. Unless the entire top 25 fix all of their problems and become consistent at what they do well within the next 2 weeks then I don't see any reason why the tournament won't be as interesting as this entire regular season has been. And, frankly, I don't see it happening so I'm predicting an interesting tournament.

I think Duke is an entirely different team with Ryan Kelly on the court, as they displayed yesterday. With him - and the momentum his return has also brought - I think Duke is in good position to run the table.

I like Miami because of their experience. They have 5 seniors who start or play significant minutes. On top of their ability to handle the stress of the tournament, everyone involved with that program understands that this is Miami's one shot to do something big. I also really like Shane Larkin. That kid was made for big games.

Louisville - on the other hand - I am not impressed by. I have been consistently amazed at how hyped up this team has been despite their repeated inability to beat good teams. Yes, they thrash inferior teams better than anyone in the country. But they are 1-4 against teams that are currently ranked in the top 25. That they're considered a favorite to win it all because they can dominate mediocre teams is a joke to me. There will be no mediocre teams in the tournament so I think Louisville will get bounced early.

No they're not, but arguing that the hype surrounding Louisville is justified because their lone good win was against a team that also can't beat quality competition and is currently in a tailspin isn't very persuasive.

They don't have a key win, you're right. But the hype around them comes from the fact that they look good statistically (KenPom, BPI, etc.) and they have no bad losses. Their worst loss was on the road at Villanova, who will likely make the tournament.

I am curious what your reasoning behind havign L'ville and not Gonzaga as a 1 seed. IMO there are at least 2-3 other teams in front of L'ville unless they win every BigEast tourney game by a margin of 40 points

Louisville is ranked high (top 2-4) in every analytics ranking and I think they're playing their best basketball right now. I think they'll win their conference tourney, but obviously not by the 40 you suggest.

UVA definitely benefits from playing in JPJ, but we also played Miami tough on the road and beat Wisconsin on the road.

Personally, I don't see us having much success in the tournament. But I do think teams that have unique tempos and defensive schemes (like VCU's Havoc and Wisconsin's snail pace) really benefit, particularly on the second game of a given weekend when teams have nearly no time to prepare.

Exactly. They remind me a lot of us when we had Carmelo. If it hadn't been for him playing the best basketball of his season in the tournament, we wouldn't have won it all that year. I think it goes the same for Georgetown this year with Porter. They will live and die by him.

Problem is if Otto struggles scoring in a game, GTown will really struggle to put the ball in the basket. Smith-Riveria can get hot, but he's far from consistent; Hopkins and Lubick aren't offensive threats; Starks isn't exactly scaring anybody.

If Otto has like a 3/10 game in the 2nd round, it's hard to imagine GTown scoring enough to win.