2. Independents. State polls showed Romney winning big among independents. Historically, any candidate polling that well among independents wins. But as it turned out, many of those independents were former Republicans who now self-identify as independents. The state polls weren't oversampling Democrats and undersampling Republicans - there just weren't as many Republicans this time because they were calling themselves independents.

That is really an interesting stat.... Republican's basically went rouge and f'ed up their own parties analysts.

dletter:2. Independents. State polls showed Romney winning big among independents. Historically, any candidate polling that well among independents wins. But as it turned out, many of those independents were former Republicans who now self-identify as independents. The state polls weren't oversampling Democrats and undersampling Republicans - there just weren't as many Republicans this time because they were calling themselves independents.

That is really an interesting stat.... Republican's basically went rouge and f'ed up their own parties analysts.

The tea party embarrassed them straight out of the party. Where the polls failed was the worst was creating the narrative that republicans were more energized, the enthusiasm gap they kept touting was just a distortion-an artifact of these embarrassed republicans.

I'll say again-the movement in the polls after the first debate was not people who decided to vote Romney all of a sudden who were undecided or independent. They were these same republicans, people who were going to vote for Romney anyhow, they were just unwilling to admit it to anyone else until Romney made it through the debate without shiatting himself. They like to be associated with winners, Romney was never considered as a winner by the public at large until that night.

As a result, they believed the public/media polls were skewed - they thought those polls oversampled Democrats and didn't reflect Republican enthusiasm. They based their own internal polls on turnout levels more favorable to Romney. That was a grave miscalculation, as they would see on election night.

Those assumptions drove their campaign strategy: their internal polling showed them leading in key states, so they decided to make a play for a broad victory: go to places like Pennsylvania while also playing it safe in the last two weeks.

dletter:2. Independents. State polls showed Romney winning big among independents. Historically, any candidate polling that well among independents wins. But as it turned out, many of those independents were former Republicans who now self-identify as independents. The state polls weren't oversampling Democrats and undersampling Republicans - there just weren't as many Republicans this time because they were calling themselves independents.

That is really an interesting stat.... Republican's basically went rouge and f'ed up their own parties analysts.

It must have been awful, to have been completely blindsided like that. Going in to the night thinking everything is great, you were living the dream...then BAM: rejection from nameless, faceless people you have never even met.

That's what happens when you live in an echo-chamber. I live south of Forsyth County, GA and that's about as red of a county as you get. They all believed Romney was going to win by a land slide and were so mystified that he actually lost. When the only people you associate with are hard right rednecks you begin to believe the hyperbole.

xynix:That's what happens when you live in an echo-chamber. I live south of Forsyth County, GA and that's about as red of a county as you get. They all believed Romney was going to win by a land slide and were so mystified that he actually lost. When the only people you associate with are hard right rednecks you begin to believe the hyperbole.

One of the last Tea Derper posts I saw on my facebook wall on Tuesday: "This is a lot closer than I expected."

They based their own internal polls on turnout levels more favorable to Romney.

They based their own internal polls on turnout levels more favorable to Romney.

They based their own internal polls on turnout levels more favorable to Romney.

The aide said that guys like me were "in what we call the reality-based community," which he defined as people who "believe that solutions emerge from your judicious study of discernible reality." ... "That's not the way the world really works anymore," he continued. "We're an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you're studying that reality-judiciously, as you will-we'll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that's how things will sort out. We're history's actors...and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do." - unnamed aide to George W. Bush

impaler:They based their own internal polls on turnout levels more favorable to Romney.

That would be literally putting the cart before the horse, since using polling that includes a favorable turnout level involves, you know, actually getting the vote out.

I have to say that living in a contested swing state, it appears that the Romney camp decided to spend more money and Obama camp decided to try to be more efficient. The day after I mailed in my ballot, I stopped getting phone calls and targeted mail from the Dems. I got calls from the GOP up through election day, and plenty of Carrier Route mailers about how we can't afford more Taxbummer.

BSABSVR:The day after I mailed in my ballot, I stopped getting phone calls and targeted mail from the Dems.

I spent 4 straight days culling lists of voters as we got more & more information about them through repeated contacts.

All I can say is that to stop the harassment you need to do the following: (1) register as a party member -- independents get called/mailed/harassed continuously, (2) vote in every election, including primaries -- doesn't matter who you vote for, just that you vote, (3) pick a side early and tell the first phone caller that you're 100% committed to whichever side, and (4) if you can, vote early or absentee -- no use trying to persuade someone whose vote is in the can already.

Angry Drunk Bureaucrat:BSABSVR: The day after I mailed in my ballot, I stopped getting phone calls and targeted mail from the Dems.

I spent 4 straight days culling lists of voters as we got more & more information about them through repeated contacts.

All I can say is that to stop the harassment you need to do the following: (1) register as a party member -- independents get called/mailed/harassed continuously, (2) vote in every election, including primaries -- doesn't matter who you vote for, just that you vote, (3) pick a side early and tell the first phone caller that you're 100% committed to whichever side, and (4) if you can, vote early or absentee -- no use trying to persuade someone whose vote is in the can already.

I didn't particularly care much as I just said "I've voted, have a a good day" and hung up on them. I just thought it was interesting that Obama's team actually paid attention down to ballot number level, while the Romney campaign went with pure brute force.

this is just like the iraq war and its cherry-picked intelligence. what is it with republicans and their need to seek out only that information that supports their already arrived-at conclusion? it's just farking asinine.

Republicans clearly all only talk to each other and are bewildered that other Americans exist, people who don't think like them but are every bit as American as they are.

This seems to confuse and irritate them. Mostly it seems it's either a conspiracy or there are now too many of "those" Americans for the white establishment to take its rightful place as rulers of all things USA.

By 2016 there will be even less white establishment Americans. They better find a new schtick.

I think the Republican party confused "motivation" with "enthusiasm". Democratic voters may not have been as "motivated" but that didn't mean they weren't going to vote.

And wow, what an echo chamber. Imagine what kind of president he would have made; he'd end up ignoring anything his echo chamber didn't tell him about (which, given his history, would've been half the country).

Of course he didn't see this coming. He had to write his concession speech right after they called Ohio because he hadn't written one beforehand. That's why it took him so long to concede. Plus you have the website, the fireworks display.....he really believed that he was owed or somehow due the Presidency, and never for one fraction of a second considered that it might not come to pass.

BSABSVR:Angry Drunk Bureaucrat: BSABSVR: The day after I mailed in my ballot, I stopped getting phone calls and targeted mail from the Dems.

I spent 4 straight days culling lists of voters as we got more & more information about them through repeated contacts.

All I can say is that to stop the harassment you need to do the following: (1) register as a party member -- independents get called/mailed/harassed continuously, (2) vote in every election, including primaries -- doesn't matter who you vote for, just that you vote, (3) pick a side early and tell the first phone caller that you're 100% committed to whichever side, and (4) if you can, vote early or absentee -- no use trying to persuade someone whose vote is in the can already.

I didn't particularly care much as I just said "I've voted, have a a good day" and hung up on them. I just thought it was interesting that Obama's team actually paid attention down to ballot number level, while the Romney campaign went with pure brute force.

We had a lot of people to contact. Anything it takes to reduce the pile.

Bladel:It must have been awful, to have been completely blindsided like that. Going in to the night thinking everything is great, you were living the dream...then BAM: rejection from nameless, faceless people you have never even met.

FTFA: They thought intensity and enthusiasm were on their side this time - poll after poll showed Republicans were more motivated to vote than Democrats - and that would translate into votes for Romney....As a result, they believed the public/media polls were skewed - they thought those polls oversampled Democrats and didn't reflect Republican enthusiasm. They based their own internal polls on turnout levels more favorable to Romney.

That's amazing. They believed one set of polls favorable to them, and used those polls to unskew other sets of polls.

The Facebook Teabagger reaction has been all over the map, from spittle-flecked, purple faced runon sentenced rage rants, to Bible verse posts praying from deliverance of Obama's next 4 years, to birther-toned rants asking him to just leave and go back to Kenya.

I promised I wasn't going to gloat over a Romney loss, but after reading TFA, well...

BUUAHAHAHAAHAAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHA FOOLS BUAUAAHAHAHAAHAAHAHAHAHAHA YOU GOT WHAT YOU DESERVED BUAAHAHAHAAHAHAHAAAA..

dletter:2. Independents. State polls showed Romney winning big among independents. Historically, any candidate polling that well among independents wins. But as it turned out, many of those independents were former Republicans who now self-identify as independents. The state polls weren't oversampling Democrats and undersampling Republicans - there just weren't as many Republicans this time because they were calling themselves independents.

That is really an interesting stat.... Republican's basically went rouge and f'ed up their own parties analysts.

Interesting still is that this very point was being made over and over to the yo-yos who kept denying that the aggregators were on to something.

Their defense was always "lots of independents breaking toward Republicans and Democrats are oversampled" while failing to see that many of these independents were not actual independents, but rather Fark Independents®. They thought they were winning over "independents" when actually they were just getting who were never, ever going to pull the lever for Obama in the first place.

I've tried to remain magnanimous and not say anything to anyone, especially at work. But I am here to tell you, I can't WAIT to listen the right wing radio shows on the commute home from work. I have the most inappropriate shiat-eating grin on my face the whole drive home. The best one I've heard so far: God is PUNISHING us for our SINFUL ways. LOL.

BKITU:Interesting still is that this very point was being made over and over to the yo-yos who kept denying that the aggregators were on to something.

Their defense was always "lots of independents breaking toward Republicans and Democrats are oversampled" while failing to see that many of these independents were not actual independents, but rather Fark Independents®. They thought they were winning over "independents" when actually they were just getting who were never, ever going to pull the lever for Obama in the first place.

I remember that point being brought up all the time here on Fark.

If you think about it, it's a bad sign for Republicans. They're really are a lot of people leaving the Republican party. Sure, they still vote Republican, but once they stop self-identifying as Republicans, they start questioning Republican propaganda.

Bladel:It must have been awful, to have been completely blindsided like that. Going in to the night thinking everything is great, you were living the dream...then BAM: rejection from nameless, faceless people you have never even met.

Just like if your company had been purchased by Bain.

WIN!

I wonder if he felt he had been legitimately raped and his body was shutting down the experience.