The New England Patriots come into Super Bowl LI the most hated team in North American sports since the Dallas Cowboys or the New York Yankees and for good reason. Despite myriad attempts to destroy the Patriots by both the NFL and the public, New England has been to 11 AFC Championship games and seven Super Bowls in the 16-year Bill Belichick/Tom Brady era. That's essentially a Super Bowl appearance every other year. By comparison the Atlanta Falcons will playing in their second Super Bowl ever; the last time the Falcons were in the Super Bowl they were called the Dirty Birds and we were still laughing about Left Eye burning Andre Rison's house down. Historically, this seems like David v. Golaith, but statistically, this game could be one for the ages. The Atlanta Falcons are coming off a record-breaking offensive season (33.1ppg), one of the greatest in NFL history; however, the New England Patriots (27.6 ppg) are right there with the Falcons in every offensive category; and also come into Super Bowl LI with the top scoring defense in the NFL, a much better feat then the pundits will lead you to believe. On paper it's the NFL's top offense v. the NFL's top defense, but this game is much more complex then that.

Super Bowl LI takes place at NRG Stadium, formerly Reliant Stadium, the site of the New England Patriots Super Bowl XXXVIII victory

The Atlanta Falcons were one of the ten greatest scoring offenses in NFL history, averaging over 33 points per game. The Falcons were a top-5 offense in every major offensive category, except for 3rd down efficiency (11th), penalties (19th) and time of possession (19th). TOP can be explained away by their fast scoring offense and penalties are more a function of discipline, not ability; clearly the penalties didn't hurt them much. The Falcons also don't turn the ball over. They ranked last in fumbles (8) and threw the 5th fewest interceptions (7).

They could have trouble moving the ball against the New England Patriots. Much has been made about the Patriot's supposed weak schedule (confirmed by Pro Football Reference's strength of schedule score of -2.65), but I'm here to argue it wasn't much easier then the Falcons schedule (-0.11 SOS score). According to my research New England played five playoff teams, five teams that just missed the playoffs, and six teams that missed the playoffs; by comparison the Falcons played four playoff teams, five teams that just missed the playoffs and seven teams that didn't make the playoffs. Considering both teams played the entire NFC West in 2016 and play in comparable divisions, I struggle to see how the strength of schedule scores aren't much more similar. What's my point? Don't turn your nose up at this Patriots top scoring defense. In addition to being the top scoring defense, they rank in the top-10 in several significant defensive categories (Yards, rushing yards, 1st downs, 3rd down efficiency, passes defended, time of possession and QBR). This New England defense is really good, and they got much better as the season progressed, a common Bill Belichick trait.

Bill Belichick has made a career out of stopping the best opposing offenses

The Atlanta Falcons boast a historical offense, yet the New England Patriots either stay with them of best them in every offensive category. Points? Falcons first; Patriots second. QBR? Falcons first; Patriots second. Yards? Falcons second; Patriots fourth. Passing yards? Falcons third; Patriots fourth. The Patriots best the Falcons in 3rd down efficiency and time of possession, two of the most overlooked offensive statistics in football research. The Falcons score at the highest rate per possession of any team in the NFL, but the Patriots are 5th in scoring percentage. In fact, if we take both teams scoring differential and then calculate it against their strength of schedule, as discussed in the previous paragraph (Pro Football Reference's SRS metric), the Patriots rank first in the NFL; guess who ranks second? You guessed it, the Falcons.

The New England Patriots will focus on the Falcons Julio Jones, the NFL's top wide receiver

The only thing left to discuss is the reason for my prediction. The Atlanta Falcons statistically have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Hard to believe being coached by the great defensive-minded Dan Quinn, but there's no Michael Bennett on this team. No Richard Sherman. No Earl Thomas. No Kam Chancellor. In fact, there aren't many big names on this defense save Vic Beasely, but there is a guy named Dwight Freeney who used to give Tom Brady fits. Unfortunately that was a decade ago. That job will now belong to Vic Beasely and he'll have his work cut out for him all night as the Patriots allowed the fifth fewest sacks in 2016.

This will be the 7th Super Bowl in the Hall of Fame Bill Belichick/Tom Brady era

We have much to be excited about tonight as the high flying Atlanta Falcons and their electric offense take on the disciplined and steady New England Patriots. All the millions of Patriots haters will turn on FOX with high hopes of seeing the cheating, Trump-supporting brass and brains of the New England Patriots get crushed by suffocating high-scoring Atlanta Falcons, but I'm here to burst that bubble. Not only are the cheating allegations against the Patriots pathetic attempts to marginalize their incredible dynasty, the cries against some member's Trump support should align perfectly with Falcons owner Arthur Blank's Republican contributions over the years. Don't come to me with any of the superfluous nonsense. This game is about the Atlanta Falcons taking the next step with Matt Ryan and Julio Jones, but it's more about appreciating the New England Patriots for what they've accomplished. If the Patriots win tonight Tom Brady will have separated himself from Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw (cough) with five rings, Bill Belichick will have coached five Super Bowl victories, and the New England Patriots will have won five of seven Super Bowls in only 16 years. Hate them or love them, that's an unbelievable dynasty that we will never see again in our lifetimes. Instead of hating it, try appreciating it.

Reasons: The Super Bowl
most pro football experts around the country predicted before the season began
has come to fruition and it would be hard to argue against either of these two teams
facing off for the Super Bowl title. What drama, to boot: The Seattle Seahawks
are the first team to make it back to the Super Bowl in consecutive season in
10 years, since 2003-2004, when their Super Bowl XLIX opponent New England
Patriots not only made consecutive Super Bowls, but won back-to-back titles,
the first team to do so since the 1998-1999 Denver Broncos. What no experts could
have predicted, however, was the Conference Championship path each team would
take. The Seahawks came back from down 19-7 to the Green Bay Packers in the 4th
quarter, while nearly losing their two best defensive backs and Marshawn Lynch to
injury in the process; the Patriots demolished the Indianapolis Colts 45-7 only
to mired in “DeflateGate” ever since. Suffice it to say my feelings on the
subject are well documented in the ProFootballMedia.com Championship reviews:Tuesday’sGone: Championship Round Edition.

The
real story here is that other than a hobbled Brandon LaFell and a sickly Tom
Brady, the New England Patriots are 100% in a Super Bowl for the first in their
three tries since the Patriots’ last embarrassment, the so-called “SpyGate”
scandal. They’re going to need it, because if the Patriots thought the New York
Giants defenses of 2007 and 2011 were something, 2014 Seattle is something to
be marveled. No defense since the Ravens’ defenses of the early 2000s conjure
the fear the Seattle Seahawks do, and they’re no flash in the pan. After taking
the 2013 regular season by storm, allowing only 14.4 ppg with 39 takeaways, the
Seahawks eventually demolished the record-setting Denver Broncos 43-8,
solidifying their place in history. However, after starting the 2014 season 3-3,
and with their defense allowing 23.5 ppg, the 2013 championship year seemed
liked a distant memory and Seattle seemed destined to become yet another Super
Bowl winner to miss the playoffs the following year. Not so fast my friends –
the Seahawks went 9-1 to close out the season, and allowed fewer points (136) than they had in the first six
games (141), allowing only 13.6 ppg.
Sound more like it?

New
England suffered a similar path: after starting the season 2-2 there were
whispers of the demise of the great New England Bill Belichick-Tom Brady
dynasty; the dynamic Patriots’ offense was only averaging 20 ppg as tight end
Rob Gronkowski recovered from injury and slowly got back into the swing of
things. Then came the swing of things. With a healthy Rob Gronkowski, the
Patriots rattled off seven straight wins, winning won ten of their final twelve
games, with one of the two losses coming Week 17 at half strength against the
Buffalo Bills. During the Patriots meaningful eleven-game stretch (sans the Bills game), New England
averaged 34.5 ppg, and finished the season averaging 29.2. If the Patriots
played any starters besides Tom Brady in that final Buffalo game, New England
would have led the NFL in scoring. Truth is, the Patriots didn’t lead the NFL
in anything of importance other than individual game scoring differential (+9), which they tied with, guess who, the
Seahawks. The Seattle Seahawks led the NFL in many things: rushing yards, passing defense, total defense, and scoring
defense. They were second only to the Pittsburgh Steelers in defensive TOP by
23 seconds, and were the 3rd-ranked rush defense, held their
opponents to 37% on 3rd down, and finished the season ranked 4th
in turnover ration (+10). What about
the Seahawks offense, the supposed bane of their existence? In addition to
being the league’s top-ranked rushing attack, the Seahawks ranked 10th
in the NFL with 24.6 ppg, and 11th in 3rd down
conversions.

Before
we get caught up in the Seahawks’ glory, let’s consider their opponent, lest we
forget about the most recent, and still highly functioning NFL dynasty. The
2014 Patriots were an offensive juggernaut, ranking 4th in scoring
offense (29.2ppg), 4th in
first downs, 5th in Red Zone offensive TD percentage, 6th
in 3rd-down conversions, and 9th in passing offense,
while ranking second in the league in turnover ration (+12). Don’t let the offensive numbers fool you, the Patriots’
defense, led by All-Pro Darrell Revis, play great defense, too. Besides ranking
8th in the NFL in scoring defense, the Patriots were the 9th-ranked
rush defense, something that will come in handy against Lynch and the bruising
Seahawks.

The
numbers suggest a team with a great offense and a good defense is playing a
team with a great defense and a good offense. History suggests teams with great
defenses, sound running games, and timely special teams win Super Bowls. The
Seahawks are the best defense and the
best running game, and kicker Steven
Hauschka ranked 10th-ranked in scoring while the Seahawks’ punt coverage
team ranked 7th in punt return yards allowed. New England has a
respectable running game that improved as the season progressed, one of best
defenses in the NFL, and some of the best special teams in the league led by
kicker Stephen Gostkowski (ranked 4th
in the NFL in points), return man Julian Edleman, and special team guru Matthew
Slater. In other words, when you set aside the statistical accolades shared by
both teams, Super Bowl XLIX boils down to one of the best defenses of this
latest NFL generation and an emerging superstar in Russell Wilson led by
innovator Pete Carroll against arguably the greatest quarterback and head coach
in NFL history, both playing in their 6th Super Bowl in their 14
years together.

The
pressure to repeat combined with the Patriots’ burning desire to eliminate the haunting
memory of that nearly perfect 2007 season destroyed on the very field of
University of Phoenix Stadium will be too much for the banged-up Seahawks to
overcome, despite Brady’s flu and the fear it spreads to Gronkowski. The
Seattle Seahawks are one of the best teams we’ve seen in the past few years;
the New England Patriots are one of the best teams we’ve seen over the past fourteen years. Brady is far too hungry
and the Patriots far too angry over DeflateGate,
SpyGate, PlaceWordHereGate, and related nonsense, as well as their past
Super Bowl failures to let this one slide.

Reasons: Aaron Rodgers
can’t do it alone. The Packers running game came into its own as the season
progressed, including a 100-yard performance from Eddie Lacy against the
Cowboys in the Divisional Round, and the defense is vastly improved, including
the 10th-ranked run defense, and yet Green Bay is going to need
every ounce of it and much more. The
Seahawks are simply dominant. The Seahawks are the NFL’s top rushing attack,
pass defense, and scoring defense; the Seahawks are also the league’s 3rd-ranked
rush defense and 10th-ranked scoring offense. The team’s only
weakness is the passing game - ranked 27th. That’s right, Russell
Wilson is the statistical weakness on this team. The Carolina Panthers came
into CenturyLink field perhaps the hottest team in the league outside of New
England and its host, and they had their hearts ripped out in the 4th
quarter, specifically by one Kam Chancellor, who ran back an INT for a TD and
leapt the line twice in an effort to
blocked a late FG; he was actually successful the second time, but it was
called back on a penalty. Aaron Rodgers can’t do it alone, and he won’t have to
with these improved Packers, but even if the eventual league MVP were healthy
the Packers wouldn’t stand much of a chance…and Rodgers isn’t healthy. The
Seahawks become the first team since the ’03-’04 Patriots to return to the
Super Bowl, and most likely face the Patriots when they get there.

Are you kidding me? The Packers led 16-0 lead
at the half, and realistically, it should have been 24-0. Then the Packers held
a 19-7 lead after a Mason Crosby FG with 10:53 left in the 4th quarter.
That lead lasted through 5:13, when strong safety Morgan Burnett intercepted
Russell Wilson, but then inexplicably fell down for a short 4-yard gain, rather
than the potential 20+ yard gain that appeared to be attainable. Burnett
claimed he didn’t want to fumble, momentarily forgetting he was running against
the Seahawks’ offense, not their famed defense. Wilson was hit so hard on a crosscheck
block by Clay Matthews on the INT that it was literally a miracle Wilson wasn’t
injured. Miracles you say? Funny I should mention it. Following that play all
hell broke loose…for the Packers. It would be all heaven breaking loose for the
Seahawks, as the Good Lord finally finished his chores and got to the game just
in time to help his proud servant Russell pull off the most improbable comeback
I’ve seen since the old Houston Oilers lost a 32-point lead to the Buffalo Bills
in 1993. Following the Wilson hit the Seahawks circle the wagons and
immediately got the ball back. Wilson scampers into the End Zone with 3:52 remaining.
It’s now 19-14. The Seahawks, feeling their newfound momentum, decide on an
onside kick. The Packers put their hands team on the field and Steven Hauschka
kicked the ball right to the Packers’ sure-handed Brandon Bostik’s…facemask. Obviously
the Seahawks recovered the onside kick. Seahawks ball. Beast Mode, touchdown. Wilson
to Willson, two-point conversion. HaSean “Ha Ha” Clinton-Dix, the Alabama
rookie who had played one of the games of his young career, inexplicably stops
defending Willson and literally allows the easy conversion. It’s now 22-19 with
2:09 remaining. The Packers are literally watching this game slip through their
fingers after being outscored 22-3 in the second half. The Packers managed only
48 yards on the ensuing drive, but Crosby hit a 48-yard FG with 0:14 remaining.
Overtime. Did you really expect the Packers to get the coin toss after all
this? The Packers held them to 3rd down, before two straight 35-yard
bombs to Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse sealed the game. The Seahawks became
the only team since the 2003-2004 New England Patriots to return to the Super
Bowl, and will try to become the first team since those Patriots to win
back-to-back Super Bowls. What do you know; they’re playing the Patriots.

Reasons: First the Colts
beat a Bengals team without AJ Green and then they played a Broncos team
without a healthy Peyton Manning. I’m not saying the Colts’ playoff run hasn’t
been impressive so much as I’m saying the Colts should still be considered a
one-dimensional team that relies far too much on the league’s best young
quarterback. Sure, the Colts ran for 114 and 99 yards in their two playoff wins,
respectively, but 46 of those yards came from the aforementioned Andrew Luck,
and without Luck’s totals the Colts averaged only 3.5 yards per carry. As for
the defense, don’t be fooled by the 11.5 ppg Indianapolis allowed over the same
stretch – I refer you to line one. Like I said, the Colts are a one-dimensional
team. The Patriots are not, and they’re fresh off a battle with their nemesis
Baltimore Ravens, false accusations and all, in which New England came from
down 14 points twice to get the chance to host the AFC Championship – their fourth straight.. The Patriots appear to
be at full strength for the occasion for the first time in those four games,
and it couldn’t come at a worse time for the statistically inferior Colts. To
compound matters, Mother Nature plans to attend the game with rain, a wintry
mix, and near-freezing temperatures. Not only is that terrible news for the
dome-dwelling Colts, it’s great news for the weather-tested Patriots. The
Patriots will attempt to win their 4th Super Bowl in six tries
during the Tom Brady-Bill Belichick era (only
14 years), and will most likely face the first team to return to the Super
Bowl since they last did it in ’03-’04.

First it was the Tuck Rule, something
completely out of the New England Patriots’ hands, which first formed to
Anti-Patriots Alliance (APA). The tuck rule was somehow invented on the spot,
the APA claims, to benefit a coach who had enjoyed minimal NFL success to that
point with the Cleveland Browns, and a second-year quarterback taken with the
199th pick in the draft. Then it was bitter Rams’ players, specifically
Marshall Faulk, formerly my favorite all-time running back due to his skill and
surname, who came out and accused the New England Patriots of cheating by filming
the Rams’ practices and getting a Super Bowl edge. The APA wasn’t as strong in
the early years, so this claim took years to gain steam. The Greatest Show On
Turf has never accepted being beat by the lowly 2001 Wild Card Patriots. I
wonder if the Patriots ever thought of accusing the New York Giants of anything
after their (two) improbable Super Bowl win(s)? Then it was SpyGate. The New
England Patriots were allegedly filming the New York Jets’ practices and
gaining advantages. Guess who blew the whistle? Eric Mangini, former Patriots’
coach, the very man responsible for training the video coordinator accused of
filming practices. So Mangini sees his trainee, assumes he’s filming practice,
and rats out the team that essentially started his NFL career. “Rat” assumes
the Patriots actually filmed anything. The NFL confiscated the tapes. However,
people are more willing to think that the NFL was involved in some huge
inexplicable cover up with the Patriots rather than assuming there was nothing
to see, and with the league knowing Mangini had already embarrassed himself within
NFL circles, spared him more embarrassment for blowing a pointless whistle and
simply put the matter to rest. Yes, the NFL fined Bill Belichick and the
Patriots and took away a draft pick for SpyGate, but the same league said they
didn’t know about the Ray Rice tapes, and then hired their friends to
investigate them. Do you trust this league? Then it was the Aaron Hernandez
situation, where people claimed the Patriots knew of Hernandez’s gang ties, but
ignored them to get his services, as if the Patriots abandoned all of their
morals so they could have a potentially great tight end. See, this is what
people conveniently forget: even if all of these allegations were true, the
games still have to be played and players like Hernandez still have to develop.
People even grasped at straws with Bill Belichick’s recent new formations, all
legal, and tried to claim Belichick cheated his way through the playoffs.
Finally we sit in the midst of DeflateGate, the latest Patriots witch hunt, and
perhaps the most comical of all. Without even belaboring the issues, suffice it
to say these types of things happen all the time in games, including examples
from other teams this year, there’s almost no way to prove Belichick had
anything to do with deflating balls even if it were true, every expert that has
been asked has claimed it’s not an issue, and certainly wouldn’t have affected
the Patriots-Colts game, and most importantly, the officials were handling the
balls the entire game, yet it’s a media firestorm after the fact. Please. The
fact is we’re talking about the New England Patriots, and they don’t play ball
too far down the road from Salem, MA. They know all about witch-hunts. No, this
game doesn’t even deserve a review, because there was no game. The Patriots, as
they have in every other meeting with Andrew Luck, demolished the Colts in
every aspect of the game. The only story here is the rest of the country’s
pathetic attempts to constantly try and take what the Patriots have
accomplished away from them. Guess what? Your team cheats. Every team does. The
greatest teams in history did. Your coaches pull every stop and search for
loopholes. Your team has a scumbag on it. And your team does whatever it takes
to win. Here’s the difference: your team doesn’t, the Patriots do. The New
England Patriots have nothing to apologize for. Bill Belichick is the greatest
coach in the history of this failing game, and Tom Brady is the greatest
quarterback who has ever played in it. Get over it.

Reasons: The one match up
the Patriots didn’t want; the Ravens
come into Foxborough having won two of the last three playoff games at Gillette
Stadium, all since 2009. Not only are the Ravens a historically tough match up,
they’re a literal tough match up Saturday. The Patriots and Ravens are
relatively evenly matched in most yardage, points, and situational statistics;
about the only place the two teams divert is with offensive Red Zone
efficiency, offensive 3rd-down conversions, and turnovers. The real
difference this year, and the reason for the seven-point spread, that that the
Patriots have never had all of their wide receivers and tight ends,
specifically Rob Gronkowski, available to them against the Ravens. The Patriots
also didn’t have Darrell Revis and Brandon Browner. Those former Ravens teams
were playing with much more spirit (Ray
Lewis) and this current Patriots team is far too talented.

The Patriots came back from down 14 points twice
in this game and picked off Joe Flacco’s last gasp effort in the end zone to
seal the win after a wild, evenly matched Divisional game between two evenly matched
teams. Flacco looked brilliant in the first half, but two costly INTs did Flacco
and the Ravens in. The Patriots pulled brilliant tricks out of their offensive bag,
including a 51-yard TD pass from WR Julian Edleman and a legal formation new to
professional football, prompting Ravens head coach John Harbaugh to embarrass
himself by suggesting the Patriots were calling illegal plays, and then once
finding out they were legal, suggesting the Patriots were pulling cheap shot
moves. Tom Brady responded by saying Harbaugh should study the playbook more; I
say people that live in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones. Considering the level
of integrity the Ravens’ organization has in the face of all their many
horrific domestic violence issues, forcing victims to apologize for their roles,
and championing players who both went to prison for drugs, and who were acquitted
of homicide but convicted of obstruction of justice, perhaps the last thing the
Ravens’ should be doing is accusing model organizations of everything under the
Sun in pathetic, desperate attempts to bring them to their level. New England
only rushed for seven yards on three carries to Baltimore’s 135 yards on 28 carries (Justin
Forsett ran for 129 on 24 carries), but Brady threw for 367 yards and 3 TDs in
addition to Edleman’s 51-yard TD. The Patriots committed one fewer turnover –
the key to the victory. The Patriots now play in their 4th straight
AFC Championship, and 9th in the 14 years of the Belichick-Brady duo.

Reasons: The Carolina
Panthers defense has only allowed 14.4 ppg over the last five weeks including
the playoffs, and Jonathan Stewart had more rushing yards than any other
running back in the league over the last four weeks of the season. The only
problem with that is their opponent only allowed 15.9 ppg over the entire season, and their running back Marshawn
Lynch is the league’s premier running back and finished fourth among all backs. Despite the ride the Panthers
have been on going from disappointment to NFC South title, Carolina might be
running into the hottest team in the NFL. The Seahawks have the league’s
top-ranked rushing offense, passing defense, scoring defense, and are tied with
New England for the largest point differential per game (+9). Considering the game is at CenturyLink Field, where the
Seahawks are 16-2 the last two seasons, including the playoffs, the Panthers
stand little chance. The Panthers fought the Seahawks hard Week 8, losing 13-9,
but the Panthers hadn’t hit their low mark yet at that point, while the
Seahawks were just ascending from their early season funk. The spread may seem ridiculous,
but the Sharps don’t ride the emotional rollercoaster like the fans do.

If you didn’t watch this game you would have
no any idea how close it was. The Seahawks only led 17-10 with just under 11
minutes left in the 4th quarter, and Seattle closed the game with
fewer first downs, fewer offensive yards, fewer rushing yards, a lower rushing
average, and more penalties in eight fewer minutes of possession; the defense
even had the same number of sacks (2). The problem was, the Seahawks beat the
Panthers soundly in the two categories that matter most: turnovers (3 – 2 INTs;
1 fumble) and the final score (31-17). The Seahawks would be the first to admit the Panthers played a smash-mouth style akin to their own, and
were probably stunned the Panthers hung around so long on the shoulders of a rookie wide receiver and by their 132 rushing yards (30 carries). Kelvin Benjamin, the clear case
ROY if he weren’t part of the greatest rookie wide receiving class in recent memory,
gave the Seahawk’s secondary fits at times, gaining 75 yards and 2 TDs on seven
receptions (10 targets) –there could have been far more if not for a few near
misses. The game belonged to the Seahawks, however, as Russell Wilson outplayed
Cam Newton and the defense, specifically Kam Chancellor, outplayed the
Panthers. We won’t even get into Chancellor leaping the line to block a FG
twice and returning an INT for a TD. The Seahawks are one step closer to
becoming the first team since the ’03-’04 New England Patriots to repeat as
Champions and face a hobbled Aaron Rodgers at home to get there.

Reasons: The Cowboys are
8-0 on the road this season, and the Packers are 8-0 at home; this is the first
such match up in playoff history. The game comes down to two juggernaut
offenses with similar styles and mediocre defense clashing in Lambeau for only
the second time in history since the Ice Bowl in 1967. These teams are evenly
matched; these teams “win” their games 30-22 (Packers) and 29-22 (Cowboys).
The Packers have one of the better passing offenses in the league (8th) and the Cowboys and
DeMarco Murray have the league’s second-ranked rushing offense. The same can be
said for the defenses – the Cowboys have the 8th-ranked rush defense
and the Packers have the league’s 10th-ranked pass defense. Clearly
it helps to play against these guys all week in practice. The game really comes
down to Aaron Rodgers’ health and the Cowboys nerves. Dallas has gone from the “accident
waiting to happen” to the “Super Bowl Champ waiting to happen”, and hopes run
high through the Texas plains. If Rodgers is 75% of himself the Cowboys defense
could be in for a long day, but if Rodgers can’t be Rodgers, and Tony Romo can
avoid living up to his playoff name, then the Cowboys stand a real chance.

It shall be forever known as “The [no] Catch”. In
a play that will be debated for years, and could spark a changing of the rule,
Dez Bryant was ruled to have not maintained control throughout the entire
process of the reception, although to me, and at least 75% of the live and aftermath
viewers, not only did Bryant maintain control, he arguably scored a TD on the
play considering he officially gained final control in the end zone. Regardless,
no game can ever be reduced to one play, and the Cowboys had their chances.
DeMarco Murray rushed for 123 yards and a TD on 25 carries, but had a costly
fumble; Romo played well, but was sacked four times and was under pressure all
day. The Packers missed a two-point conversion, committed 10 penalties for 87
yards and lost a fumble themselves (Aaron Rodgers), but the play of Rodgers (316
passing yards and 3 TDs), Eddie Lacy (100 rushing yards), and rookie Davante
Adams (117 receiving yards and 1 TD) overcame the mistakes – and the controversial
call – to survive the Divisional round and win a trip to soggy Seattle for the
NFC Championship against a freshly sharpened buzzsaw.

Reasons: Unfortunately
for the Indianapolis Colts they’re only good at one thing, throwing the ball.
The Denver Broncos just happen to be led by the guy who wrote the book on
passing. Also unfortunate for the Colts is that the Broncos happen to have a
respectable defense, and CJ Anderson has been one of the best running backs in
the NFL the second half of the season. The Colts don’t give up many yards, but
they give up points and turn the ball over, something the Broncos don’t do, but
take advantage of. The Colts are also worst in the league defending the Red
Zone, which will prove to be trouble on the road against the Broncos, who rank
4th in offensive Red Zone efficiency. Andrew Luck is the future of
the NFL, but he’s no Peyton Manning yet, and even Manning could never put the
entire team on his shoulders and beat the best
teams in the AFC, just ask the Patriots. Manning proves he’s been playing
possum lately and springs back to life in time to represent the Broncos in
their third AFC Championship in Manning’s three years there.

Peyton Manning looked so bad at times in this
game that post game analysts started wondering if he should retire; then it was
reported Manning had a torn quadriceps the last four week of the season into
the playoffs. I find that hard to believe as we clearly saw him throw off of
his plant leg, the leg in question, but Manning is clearly not 100% - no
kidding, he’s 38 years old and in his 18th season. Considering he's played in 24 playoff games, he's technically played19 ½
season. Besides a TD pass
on the opening drive, Manning and the Broncos looked abysmal. The running game,
the heart of this team the past month of the regular season, was held to 88 rushing
yards on only 20 carries, and Manning completed 56% of his passes for only 211 passing yards, 25% of which came
in garbage time. Andrew Luck threw two INTs, but they either served as punts or
the Broncos weren’t able to do anything with the turnover anyway, so they weren’t costly.
Luck also threw two TDs and helped strengthen Jim Irsay’s ego regarding his
decision to let Manning go and draft Luck. Talk about luck. Just as the Packers
now have to travel to Seattle and face an animal, so now do the Colts, who
haven’t played so well in New England. Some people will tell you the Colts defense
caught fire against the Broncos and held them to 13 points. I’m here to tell
you the Broncos offense was just that bad and that the Colts will have their
hands full with Rob Gronkowski and the Patriots in the AFC Championship, Luck’s
first.

Check back Wednesday to see how we did in Tuesday’s Gone: Week 19 #NFL
Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis) DIVISIONAL ROUND EDITIONat
ProFootballMedia.com!

Reasons: The cynics will
say the Carolina Panthers backed into the playoffs and got lucky landing a
reeling Arizona Cardinals team on their third quarterback. Although factually
they might be correct, as the Panthers are only the second team in NFL history
to make the playoffs, and the Cardinals couldn’t be picking a worse time to
lose four of six games, the Panthers are no joke. Statistically the Panthers
are the better offensive team over the course of the entire season, and despite
the Cardinals winning several games early in the season via multiple turnovers,
the Panthers (+3) take the ball away
nearly as much as the Cardinals (+8).
The Panthers also have the NFL’s 7th-ranked rushing team, mostly a
function of the last several weeks. The difference here is defense, where the
Cardinals remain one of the league’s elite; I say ‘remain’ because it was only
11 months ago the Panthers were as elite, remember? Unfortunately for the
Cardinals these Panthers have found that 2013 form, holding opponents to 11.2
ppg over their last five games since their Week 12 bye. Consider the Cardinals
will be playing third-string quarterback Ryan Lindley in the pouring rain and
Arizona could be in for a long day. The Cardinals will certainly give the
offensive line and Cam Newton trouble, but Newton is finding his own stride since
the car accident that left him with two transfer process fractures in his lower
back, and he’ll do just enough to win at home.

After taking a 10-0 dominant lead in the first
quarter, the Panthers then missed a FG, punted, and threw an INT, allowing the
Cardinals to take the 14-10 lead before Gano redeemed himself hitting a 43-yd
FG to go into the half down 14-13. Then the Panthers defense went 2013 on the
Cardinals, themselves a top-ranked defense in 2014, and suffocated Arizona to point of
extinction. Despite several errors, including two fumbles, the Panthers’
defense, specifically linebackers Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis, were so fired
up, and the Cardinals offense so banged up, that the stats became historic. Consider the Cardinals' offense:
78 total yards for a 1.7 ypp average and 8 first downs.

Reasons: Stop me when
you’ve heard this one before: The Steelers are playing the Ravens. For the
fourth time in their 19-year history (Baltimore
became an NFL franchise in 1996) and the third time since 2009, these
bitter AFC North division rivals will face off again. Normally two of the best
defense in the league, these two teams come into the 2014 playoffs tow of the
better offensive teams in the NFL;
both teams rank next to each other in the top-ten in scoring offense. Don’t be
fooled though, the Ravens ball on defense, too (6th-ranked scoring defense). These two teams know each
other about as well as any two teams in the NFL could, and they split the
season series 1-1. The final combined score? 49-49. As far as yards are
concerned, these teams match up perfectly, the one exception being how they
gain yards on offense – the Steelers pass the ball while the Ravens dominate
the run game. As far as points the only real difference is on defense, where
the Ravens bend, but the Steelers break, allowing ~4 ppg more. The real
difference here could be the Steelers’ home field advantage, as the Ravens have
struggled the past few road outings.

The Ravens have shown they’re a different beast
in the playoffs, and this year they don’t even need to be, despite losing the
AFC North after seemingly being in control of it. The Steelers went up 3-0 in
the first quarter and never regained the lead, although the Steelers had plenty
of chances in the 4th to tie or take that lead. The Ravens defense
sacked Ben Roethlisberger five times and forced two INTs, and Joe Flacco kept
his playoff mystique going, giving the Ravens some hope that he may actually earn
that post-Super Bowl contract.

Reasons: This game
features the two most unpredictable playoff teams in 2015. The Bengals are 5-3
in the second half of the season, and squandered their chance to win the
division (and possibly host a playoff
game) when they lost to division rival Pittsburgh in Week 17, and it could
be argued that the Colts rely too much on Andrew Luck and lose big games to
good opponents. Four of the Colts’ five losses were to playoff teams, the other
was to Philadelphia, who could have made the playoffs if not for tiebreakers. It
could also be argued the Colts played in the second-worst division in the NFL,
the AFC South, which featured Jacksonville and Tennessee (five combined wins), but the fact of the matter is the Colts beat
the Bengals in their Week 7 matchup 27-0. The Bengals are the more talented
team, but could be without a healthy AJ Green, and the Colts have the prolific
offense, but they turn the ball over far too much (-5). The Bengals don’t bode well in big time games under Marvin
Lewis and Andy Dalton, and the game is in Indianapolis, but something tells me
Jeremy Hill is going to open up the passing game and also help keep Andrew Luck
off the field. The fact that the Colts have only played three meaningful games
in the past seven weeks since their bye, and they lost two of them (NE, DAL), also has something to do with
it.

Why did I pick the Bengals on the road in a playoff
game? I guess because I had a first-time-for-everything (in a long time) mentality.
That was a silly mistake, as the best young quarterback in the NFL far
outplayed one Andy Dalton, who is supposed to be one of the best young QBs in
the league, yet manages to destroy every chance he gets at solidifying that
notion in any fan’s mind. Jeremy Hill, on fire the past few weeks, was held to 47
yards on only 13 carries, and was ineffective to say the least on play action plays. The Colts now travel to Denver for a matchup everyone in the world
wants to see almost as much as Peyton v. Eli.

Reasons: The Lions are
the luckiest team in the Wild Card round getting Ndamukong Suh back from an
appealed suspension (reduced to $70,000
fine), because now they actually have a small chance. People mock the
Carolina Panthers for backing into the playoffs, but sometimes I wonder if this
Lions team evens deserves to be there. The Lions “won” their games this season
20-18, and while their defense was one of the best in the NFL, the Lions
offense, rife with talent, was disappointing to say the least. Six of the
Lions’ eleven wins were by seven or fewer points – all six to teams that missed the playoffs. In several of those
games the Lions had come back from being down. In fact, the Lions only had five
statement wins, and only one of those wins came against a winning
team (GB). In other words, besides an
elite defense, the Lions aren’t that good. The Cowboys, on the other hand, are
very good. In addition to boasting the league’s second-ranked rushing attack
and Tony Romo’s MVP season, the Cowboys’ have the 5th-ranked scoring
offense and Dallas’ defense is no longer a crutch. The Cowboys might not be the
best home team (4-4), but it’s not as
if the Lions are road warriors (4-4).
Matt Stafford might be coming home to Texas, where he’s played well in the
past, but his only other career playoff game was also on the road and didn’t
end well (45-28 loss to NO in 2011).
The Cowboys are on a mission and the Lions still don’t belong.

Lions lead 20-7 midway through the 3rd
quarter. Tell me you weren’t thinking, “Here the Cowboys go again”. Then, in a
move we haven’t seen in decades, the Dallas Cowboys strapped up the boots,
clicked the spurs, and got back on the horse and rode…right through the hearts
of Ndamukong Suh and the Detroit Lions all the way to a controversial 24-20
win. Ok, the pass interference call hardly had anything to do with the final
outcome, and it wasn’t pass interference anyway. That said this game was as
much about the Lions losing as it was the Cowboys winning. This was like a game
between two spoiled rich brats, and the slightly older more experienced one
narrowly escaped with a victory. It’s fitting that one of these teams had to go
home after the game, because it’s clear the loser wouldn’t belong. The Cowboys
certainly deserve their glory in 2014-2015, but they’ve managed less with even
more talent in the very recent past; the Lions could be the most talented
mediocre team in the history of the league. What transpired Sunday was an
incredible game, but it’s both amazing and sad the Lions can’t mange more
offense with the weapons they possess. The prize? A trip to frigid Lambeau
Field for the Ice Bowl II. Last temperature reading? 9 degrees.

Check back Wednesday to see how we did in Tuesday’s Gone: Week 18 #NFL
Game Predictions (w/ spreads & analysis)at ProFootballMedia.com!

Week
17 Notes: Perhaps as hard to predict as Week 1, Week 17 comes with
so many variables that it makes it nearly impossible to predict games. A
majority of teams are going home after today, meaning several will be playing
rookies or reserve players to get some idea of the direction they might head in
the off season. Many teams have players under exorbitant contracts and will not
risk injury in a meaningless game. Don’t let any football player convince you
there is no such thing – this is a business first. Several teams are still in
the playoff hunt. These teams will pull out all the stops. The teams that are
in the playoffs still have decisions to make. Some teams will completely sit
their starters, while some teams will play their starters in limited action.
Some of these teams are even in position to increase their playoff seed, and
their game plan could be dictated as the day – and other games – progress. All
of this information can be summed up in one declaration: stay away. Put your
wallets back in your back pocket. Unfortunately for me, I’m obligated to
predict winners. What’s worse is the position of my ego: If I go 11-5 in both
wins and v. the spread in Week 17, I will have officially predicted 67% of wins
correctly and I’ll have called exactly 50% against the spread. That’s something
to brag about. Too bad it’s Week 17. See you in the playoffs.