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The most important number in politics today

Of that 53 percent, 44 percent strongly oppose the changes. There is significantly less intensity among the 43 percent of likely voters who support the changes with just 29 percent supporting them strongly.

Given Virginia's primacy in the electoral math of President Barack Obama -- he was the first Democrat to carry the Commonwealth since Lyndon Johnson -- and its status as an emerging swing state, these numbers should give Democrats some pause about the potential political effects of the legislation.

As we have written before in this space, it's unlikely that any of the major changes in the bill currently being pushed by the White House will be implemented before next fall. That means that perceptions regarding the bill may well matter more than reality when it comes to the midterms.

Data points like this one suggest two important things in regards the 2010 midterms.

First, the American people -- or at least likely voters in the swing state of Virginia -- are not yet sold on the necessity or efficacy of the legislation. That's especially true of politically critical independents as just 36 percent of them support the proposed changes to the health care system.

Second, among those who oppose it, that position is strongly held while among those who support it there is far less intensity. Nearly eight in ten (79 percent) of self-identified Republicans in the poll strongly oppose the proposed changes while 60 percent of self identified Democrats strongly support them. Those numbers suggest the sort of disparity between party base energy that could have a real impact on the races next November, which, if history is any guide, will be far lower turnout affairs than the 2008 presidential contest.

There's still plenty of time before next November for voter attitudes to change on health care and, assuming President Barack Obama eventually signs some sort of bill, that could go a long way to changing perceptions.

Republicans needed a reason to get excited, and the public option served as that reason. Now Republicans will take back all state spots in Virginia: Governor, Lt. Governor & Atty. General. NY-23 is going to get a real conservative in Conservative party nominee Hoffman. In New Jersey, I still think Corzine will slip through and keep it somehow. If he doesn't, it's a referendum on him and not really the national political environment.

Not only are Republicans going to make gains in 2009, but I think they will defeat the Public Option. All 40 Republican senators are against the public option. Not only are all 40 Republicans against the public option, but so is Liberman, Ben Nelson, Kent Conrad, Lincoln & perhaps a few other Democrats. Not only has Obama lost among Republicans on the public option, but he has lost among Independents as well. The public option will not pass and I'm glad of it. I do think, however, healthcare reform can pass if Obama compromises on the public option and perhaps congress can get something good for the nation.

"""anyone notice that no original thinking or analysis ever occurs in Lib circles? It is simply chanting and faith"
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Yeah, like:
Health care reform
Green energy
Saving our country from the conservative wreckage.

Everything was so peachy before January 20th and we really didn't need to take a different course in foreign affairs or domestic issues.

Snowbama, just who do you think you are fooling?, it was people like you who caused the greatest economic and foreign policy disasters in the last 80 years, couldn't even protect our country let alone our pentagon from a few nuts hiding in a cave.

What a weak bunch of idiots, couldn't even protect us for more than nine months, at least Obama has done better than that and has taken out over half of the terrorists on the CIA most wanted list.

Before snowmelt and Jake, there was Hall of Fame troll 37thandO, at least until "Malis" shamed him into oblivion.

From the Fix archives under the Palm Restaurant (the epicenter of BroderWorld), here's 37thandO (white space is in 37th's original post):

"If there was a white Presidential candidate who was found to be a member of a racist church, same as the Rev. Wright's church except substitute "white values" for "black values" and visa vera, THE MEDIA WOULD BE IN TOTAL ATTACK MODE AGAINST THAT WHITE CANDIDATE.

OBAMA IS A RACIST - OBAMA HAS GIVE $20,000.00 TO A RACIST CHURCH IN ONE YEAR.

Washington Post - there are a lot of Churches in Chicago which are black and which are not racist - Obama did not have to give $20,000.00 to this one Church - STOP GIVING OBAMA A PASS ON HIS RACISM AGAINST WHITES.

WAKE UP WASHINGTON POST WAKE UP MEDIA.

WAKE UP AMERICA.

.

.

Exactly right he's racist. Just listen to Irreverend Wrong, his pastor for many, many years.

Exactly right he's socialist. Just listen to him admit it to Joe the Plumber, or his interviews in the past.

Exactly right he's a rotten human being. Just look at his abortion voting record.

Exactly right he has questionable judgment. Just look at his associations with people in his past.

Exactly right he's corrupt. Just look at the Rezko land deal.

Exactly right he's a liar. Just look at what he says about taxes vs. how he's actually voted.

Exactly right he has no executive experience. Just look at his resume -- or lack thereof.

Of course Reeker of the House Nanny State Pelosi's consumer option is to run the consumer out of options by making the consumer option too expensive and then blame the insurance company. You can't put anything out of the realm of possibility when you dealing with the free lunchers.

Gingrich explained his support for Scozzafava at a book signing event yesterday: “She is the nominee of the local party, my bias is to be for the nominee of the local party, and I don’t second guess the local party.” On his Fox News program yesterday, Glenn Beck attacked Gingrich. “I couldn’t disagree more with you on this one,” Beck said, arguing, “You vote with a person you agree with most…and it doesn’t matter what party they’re in.”

Last night on Fox News’ On the Record, host Greta Van Susteren asked Gingrich about the “heat” he’s been getting for endorsing Scozzafava, especially from Beck. Gingrich fired back, saying the right-wing support for Hoffman is based on “misinformation” and an abandonment of conservative values:

GINGRICH: I just find it fascinating that my many friends who claim to be against Washington having too much power, they claim to be in favor of the 10th Amendment giving states back their rights, they claim to favor local control and local authority, now they suddenly get local control and local authority in upstate New York, they don’t like the outcome. [...]

So I say to my many conservative friends who suddenly decided that whether they’re from Minnesota or Alaska or Texas, they know more than the upstate New York Republicans? I don’t think so. And I don’t think it’s a good precedent. [...]

And so this idea that we’re suddenly going to establish litmus tests, and all across the country, we’re going to purge the party of anybody who doesn’t agree with us 100 percent — that guarantees Obama’s reelection. That guarantees Pelosi is Speaker for life. I mean, I think that is a very destructive model for the Republican Party."

This "dithering" charge on Afghanistan is completely baseless. There are 20,000 more US troops in Afghanistan now than there were when Obama took office. That's a 50% increase.

McChrystal asked for up to 40,000 more troops, and noted that this increase should occur within the next 12 months to be effective. This is still easily achievable, if Obama agrees.

The increase should probably wait until spring at this point anyway. First, it will give time to assess the Afghan government post-election; second, its getting close to winter there; and third, it allows time to fully develop the strategy going forward, if counterinsurgency is the way to go.

Winter in Afghanistan sounds like a good time to be training Afghan troops, but we don't need another 40,000 to do that.

"We can almost hear Gen. McChrystal quoting the words of U.S. Grant: “In war, anything is better than indecision. We must decide. If I am wrong, we shall soon find it out and can do the other thing. But not to decide…may ruin everything.”

dither on clueless one.

Posted by: snowbama | "
---
So I can be confident that you were posting your displeasure when Bush/Cheney/Rumsfeld "dithered" for over 6 years putting the war into the state it is in now.

If I hand you a table with three broken legs do you think you will be able use it in its current condition?, or do you just slap on some duct tape and call it fixed?

The war in Afghanistan is a very complicated matter, there is no quick fix especially with the election in flux. We must first find out if we have a credible partner before committing any more troops, to rush to judgment would be foolish and counter-productive.

Here's a tid-bit for you: Since Obama has taken office over half of the terrorists on the CIA most wanted list have been killed as a result of Obama's authorization to fire using predator drones. THis includes the Al Qaeda leader in Pakistan and the top Talibam chief to name others. This program is working so well that Obama is ramping it up big-time.

But, I wouldn't expect a mental-midget like snowbama to understand any of this, that is why I spelled it out in the most simplest terms.

When Lieberman is the 50th or the 60th vote, the Democrats want him in their caucus. If he isn't going to vote as a Democrat, then there is no need to treat him like one, and they might as well take away his chairmanships, etc.

IMO, it's OK for a Senator to vote his conscience on the bill itself, but voting against your caucus on a filibuster is beyond the pale.

Another non-story from the Fix - sigh. I wonder if 10 percent of that 53 percent could even name 1 or 2 major elements of the plan, because once you start asking people if they support about whether insurance companies should be able to drop people with pre-conditions, or even about the public option, the vast majority actually support what's actually in the bill (not the fantasty nightmare version of it concocted by Beck, Armey, Boehner, Kyl etc., which has little relationship with reality).

In truth, the main reason REpublicans are scared of this bill is because they know that it will give Obama a major political victory and they're scared that it might actually work, just like Medicare, Social Security and other major programs that they've opposed over the years, which have turned out to be hugely popular.

Funny thing is that I'll give Chris C credit for having some intelligence.

==

Of that there's no doubt, his campaign reporting was top-notch but something happened after Obama won. And since I don't think CC suffered major head trauma or went on a PCP binge, my guess would be that the word came down from on hiatt to gin up Republicans ... Or Else.

Agreed on the scolds. Zouk is never going to be a contributor, and CC knows it. Ban him or quit with the scolds nobody takes seriously.

"He'll never call out zouk for monopolization and will only call him out on the infantile insults with a few other posters' names thrown in to dilute the effect."

Well, whatever Chris C wants to feign indignance about. Chris C is not an idiot. He must certainly know that zook knows he is disruptive.

But don't tell him to stop an umpteenth time. Either ban him or shut up. He's not fooling anyone with pretending to care about civility. Zook clearly has no intention of stopping his nonsense. And I just can't believe that Chris C thinks his entreaties are having any effect.

Funny thing is that I'll give Chris C credit for having some intelligence. He, on the other hand, thinks everyone on this board is an idiot who thinks that he actually is worried about allowing his posters to have an honest discussion.

That didn't take long. After a few news cycles of Beltway buzz about President Obama's all-male basketball games and golf trips, the White House promptly sent Melody Barnes, the president's chief domestic policy adviser, out to join him on the links Sunday at Fort Belvoir.

So how long until the next time Chris C pretends to be upset at this guy's monopolization of the board?

==

He'll never call out zouk for monopolization and will only call him out on the infantile insults with a few other posters' names thrown in to dilute the effect. He'll say that you and I (along with zouk) are engaging in "name calling," and all the while that Jake was loading up the board with uninteresting lies about his own fascinating life he never even got a mention.

One hypothesis is that the apparent weakness in support for "health care reform" in Virginia (as well as anywhere else) is more a reflection of the lack of specifics than support for the status quo. Once a bill with a viable public option, cost controls, repeal of the insurance antitrust exemption, etc., takes final form, it will be much easier to measure the public's support (or lack thereof) for "health care reform". Until then, few voters are likely to cast their vote primarily on an issue which is largely undefined. More palpable issues, whether they be unemployment, gun control, or the color of tie of the candidate, will be more influential with Virginia voters than will be "health care reform".

libs at war. warning, this result may not comport with the view of Kos and Huff and could be an indication that further dithering about reinforcments may lead to additional US deaths:

AP - Eight American troops were killed in two separate bomb attacks Tuesday in southern Afghanistan, making October the deadliest month of the war for U.S. forces since the 2001 invasion to oust the Taliban

US Marine: send help, we're getting blasted, over

General: hold on there, didn't you know there is an election next week and that health care might not pass, over

US Marine: what does that have to do with us? over

General: when the CinC returns from his golf outing I will ask him. but to be fair, we don't talk much anyway. over and out

even Dems don't like it. note this is not a poll from Kos or Huff and may interfere with a liberal version of reality:

AP - Inclusion of a government insurance plan in Senate health care legislation is posing problems for moderate senators whose votes are critical to passing the bill. Reverberations could be felt across the Capitol, where House Democratic leaders are finalizing a bill with a government plan.

the wages of liberalism. note this is not a poll form Kos or huff and may interfere with the dreamy world you Libs prefer to inhabit:

AP - Consumers' confidence about the U.S. economy fell unexpectedly in October as job prospects remained bleak, a private research group said Tuesday, fueling speculation that an already gloomy holiday shopping forecast could worsen.

bwj, you picked a different question; the response to the question you print was evenly split, 49/50.

I'm wondering if CC is trying to set up the argument that McDonnell's election represents a rebuke to Obama. If so, he should read the WaPo article on the poll first:
________
Sorry I'll go back re the poll question. I must have just missed the 53 percent one.

On the other point, I think you're right. I know he's pushing that BHO-referendum talking point: the problem is EJ Dionne blew that false narrative out of the water the other day. From EJ's article, it was clear the Va. Gov. race is about the relative strengths of the two candidates, not a referendum on BHO. Unfortunately, Mac is running a great race and Creigh, well, isn't.

One main flaw in the Fix talking point is that, until very recently, Deeds was running away from BHO and made clear he was NOT an Obama democrat...and was conspicuous about his lack of minority outreach. He also spent an inordinate amount of his time talking "gun rights" in rural parts of Va. So Deeds hardly can be considered a BHO proxy. By contrast, Mac has been careful not to bad-mouth BHO. That dog won't hunt.

The "public option" will be a easy to see political upheaval. It will be hard to defend after the fact especially with the bill being a moving target in its comprised policies, regulatory reach and costs. In the end whatever passes will have "unexpected" language and consequences. "Congress knows best" will not fly. Lobbyist in closed door meetings virtually writing a nation changing bill will spell political doom and deservedly so.

This depends heavily on the language of the opt out rules. The opt out may be very attractive to states willing to provide a better overall universal coverage package, states well on their way already with their current Medicaid and CHIP waivers. I think of the opt out as a waiver application, the next question is how strict the coverage mandates etc. in these waiver rules will be.

the story here is that the giant buyers remorse for all things left is setting in. all it took was to have a bit of reality rain down on the hopey mcchange lies:

Potential for Big GOP Pickups In Virginia's House of Delegates

Right now, the Virginia House of Delegates has 53 Republicans, 2 Independents that caucus with the GOP, 43 Democrats, and 2 vacant seats.

I hear Republicans watching the state delegate races closely think they have 11 challengers currently within the margin of error or better. They're worried about one or two of their own incumbents. You can do the rest of the math.

I take the headline below back; in SurveyUSA's poll, Creigh Deeds has cut Bob McDonnell's lead from 19 percentage points to . . . 17 percentage points. Ironically, this might be the best news Deeds has gotten in a while.

By the way, welcome to Virginia, President Obama!

In the race for lieutenant governor, Republican Bill Bolling is up 56–42; in the attorney general's race, Republican Ken Cuccinelli is up, 57–41.

UPDATE: And now Public Policy Polling unveils their latest poll, putting McDonnell up 55–40.

The percentage of the American people who understand key elements the health care system as it is today and, in that context, the consequences of the changes that are being proposed is very small. Experts in the field disagree; people who have nothing to do other than learn about these things and give opinions as to their consequences are all over the place.

Polling people on topics that are very important, yet beyond their ken is going to happen, I suppose the number matters, but to me this is more about "confidence" than an actual formed opinion on the topic. This is to say, I think this number reflects peoples' longstanding view of congress' ability to legislate solutions.

"I'm not sure about the national implications, but with a McDonnell win likely in Virginia and a majority of Virginians opposing the plan, the opt out provision becomes very real.

BB

Posted by: FairlingtonBlade"

If an opt out public option I'm sure all the Bobby Jindals and Haley Barbours of the world would opt out of this at the onset. But remember that the opposition to the public option is pretty meritless and is pure political posturing. When this no longer becomes a national battle, how much energy will those worthless pricks in the punditocracy spend on it? You won't be able to pin it on Obama or Pelosi. Most states are not going to opt out. Those that do will opt in after a short time when people are wondering why the hell they don't have access to government insurance. When the furor over the public option dies down, the governors will do what is best for their people and opt in.

Navigate: POLITICO The Scorecard Christie with a late surge Main Content
Christie with a late surge - The Scorecard: Christie with a late surgeOctober 27, 2009
Categories:New Jersey
Christie with a late surge
Two new polls out today suggest that Republican Chris Christie is holding the late momentum in the New Jersey gubernatorial race over Gov. Jon Corzine (D-N.J.)

The latest Rasmussen survey shows Christie taking the lead over Corzine, 42 to 38 percent, with Independent Chris Daggett winning 14 percent of the vote. Last week, Corzine held a one-point lead over Christie, 37 to 36 percent in the initial ballot test.

When soft Daggett supporters were pushed to support either Corzine or Christie, Christie maintained a 46 to 43 percent lead, with Daggett at seven percent.

A separate poll from the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling finds that late-deciding voters are lining up behind Christie. The poll shows Christie leading Corzine by four points, 42 to 38 percent with Daggett at 13 percent. Christie only led by one point over Corzine in the last PPP survey two weeks ago.

Of course this is a referendum on that commie Obimbo. We need to send a message to the other liberals in congress. If they want their job created or saved, they better stop right now with the destruction that the extremism of spending, bureaucracy, regulation, takeover, taxing, weakness and fecklessness.

Given the poll's margin of error at +/- 3 points, these results are not that much different than the pollster.com national average of 49.5% opposed vs. 45% in favor. I'm not sure that this number says anything in particular about Virginians except that they reflect the national mood on the health insurance reform legislation going through Congress.

Given that there are two Senate bills and three House bills, all yet to be merged let alone go to conference, it would be difficult to ask a poll question with specific details. I see this as taking the temperature and evidence that Republican attacks have, at least in the case of Virginia, moved opinion against the reform effort.

bwj, you picked a different question; the response to the question you print was evenly split, 49/50.

I'm wondering if CC is trying to set up the argument that McDonnell's election represents a rebuke to Obama. If so, he should read the WaPo article on the poll first:

"Seven in 10 Virginia voters say their views of President Obama, who is scheduled to campaign Tuesday with Deeds in Norfolk, will not be a factor in their choice for governor. The rest are about evenly divided between those who say their vote will be motivated by their desire to express support for the president and those who want to voice opposition to him, suggesting that Obama might not be a decisive figure in the contest and that the race is not the early referendum on the Obama presidency many have suggested it would be."

"But the perception is out there that this is a very thin skinned president who will attack those who don't worship at his feet."
***********

Although the president does have a thin skin (thats what affirmative action coddling, a career heavy on memoir writing and light on in the trenches political battles, and a compliant media will do to a guy), its more about the president's 100% willingness to play the "distract/divide" card when the sober members of his party balk at this ultra-liberal, radical agenda.

"Which comes closer to the way you feel: government reform of the nation's health care system (is necessary to control costs and expand coverage), or government action on health care (will do more harm than good)? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?"
_________

Without knowing what government "reform" or "action" is being proposed, how could anyone intelligently answer the question?

To me, because this loaded question uses completely undefined terms, the 53% poll result is, in the words of Reverend J. Wright, "invalidated."

What do you think the result would have been if the respondents had simply been asked: do you think the U.S. should have universal health care coverage like every other industrialized nation?

John Kerry's response to former Vice President Dick Cheney's idiotic remark, accusing the President of "dithering" over Afghanistan:

"This from a man who in 2002 told Americans, 'The Taliban regime is out of business,'" said Mr. Kerry, Massachusetts Democrat and chairman of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations. "This is one time I wish he was right."

And meanwhile, more idiotic plagarizing from the mental patient yellowsnow.

Nice to contempt for others dripping through the comments. As it happens, my bowling league includes military, administrative workers, and a fair number of scientists and engineers. With regards to this specific poll, respondents stated a 20-39-39 ratio of liberal-moderate-conservative, within the range of error of the national identification. I guess if you don't like the message, attack the messenger.

I'm not sure about the national implications, but with a McDonnell win likely in Virginia and a majority of Virginians opposing the plan, the opt out provision becomes very real.

For the second time in two days, a poll released by a conservative group finds Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman leading the Nov. 3 special election race for New York's 23rd District. Neighborhood Research polled the district for Minuteman PAC, the political arm of the Minuteman Movement, which has endorsed Hoffman and is airing ads on his behalf. Hoffman leads Democrat Bill Owens by 5 points

Looks like a conservative can beat two libs if that's what it takes. no teleprompters, no adoring crowds, no overseas fundraising. He is the anti-lib.

@d: This "poll" seems more about pushing an agenda (opposition to BHO's health care reform) than measuring public opinion. I agree with Andy that once an actual bill is brought to the floor, most of the public will heartily support it.

Just weeks ago, a widely publicized national poll showed 77 percent of American supported health care reform WITH the public option, so I am highly suspicious of some Va. poll (whose methodology and poll questions are unknown) telling me 53% of state voters oppose what is clearly in their personal interest.

Excerpt from HuffPo:

"More than three out of every four Americans feel it is important to have a "choice" between a government-run health care insurance option and private coverage, according to a public opinion poll released on Thursday.

'A new study by SurveyUSA puts support for a public option at a robust 77 percent, one percentage point higher than where it stood in June.'"

This has got to be some kind of bad joke. Yeah, this bill is going to create lots of jobs and stimulate the economy. Why do these people think they are in Washington? To make fools of themselves?

"Rep. Tom Price (R-GA) and 75 other House Republicans have introduced a resolution "expressing gratitude and appreciation to the individuals and families who participated in the Taxpayer March on Washington on September 12, 2009" -- and claiming that the Tea Party march drew many, many times more protesters than it actually did."

• Deposed Honduras President Manuel Zaleya confirms the essence what unjustly targeted citizens worldwide -- including this journalist -- have been reporting for years...

...military, secret security and intelligence services of many nations, including the U.S., silently assault and torture "targeted individuals," including those regarded as "dissenters" or slandered as undesirables, with debilitating, health-degrading, "slow-kill" electromagnetic microwave and laser radiation weapons systems -- reported to include a nationwide installation disguised as cell towers.

We can almost hear Gen. McChrystal quoting the words of U.S. Grant: “In war, anything is better than indecision. We must decide. If I am wrong, we shall soon find it out and can do the other thing. But not to decide…may ruin everything.”

These numbers are a reflection of the public having to watch the 'sausage making' that is Congress in session. That being said once the bill is passed in whatever form, the public will embrace it as a neccesary bill and the White house can begin to spin the whole thing as a victory.

And here's the sum total of republican ideas about healthcare -- nada, nothing, zip, zero...

haha - 'paralysis' is a good word. Elected republicans are afraid of GOVERNING and LEGISLATING because that to the base is a sign of 'socialism.' This is what happens when you allow a cult to take over a party:

'In June, House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) promised that an alternative health care reform bill would be introduced that Republicans could rally behind. “We’re putting the final touches on our bill,” Boehner said in July. Then, the chairman of the House GOP Health Care Solutions Group, Rep. Roy Blunt (R-MO), admitted that the House GOP leadership was unlikely to introduce a bill. Now, The Hill reports that “some House Republicans are growing frustrated that their leaders have not yet introduced a healthcare reform alternative”:

Rep. Tom Price (Ga.), chairman of the conservative Republican Study Committee (RSC), revealed the schism within his party late last week.

“There’s a difference of opinion over what ought to be the strategy from a political standpoint on this issue. I happen to believe we ought to have a bill.

One House Republican who spoke on the condition of anonymity said, “The fact is, [GOP leaders] are very concerned with doing anything that the base would interpret as ‘Democrat-lite’ or ‘socialized-lite’ … which is forcing a paralysis.”

It says something about Obama that he would send his chief of staff and closest political advisor - Rhambo and Axelrod - out to bash Fox for what appears to be a personal distaste for the network while the economy is still tanking, his health care initiative is still in trouble, and his own party is starting to ask questions about his leadership.

The last couple of days have seen the White House back off a bit - no doubt they realize the mistake they've made. But the perception is out there that this is a very thin skinned president who will attack those who don't worship at his feet.

Any prize that goes to Kellogg and Briand, Le Duc Tho and Arafat, and Rigoberta Menchú, and ends up with Obama, tells you all you need to know. For Obama it's not very good because it reaffirms the stereotypes about him as the empty celebrity.

He is a man of perpetual promise. There used to be a cruel joke that said Brazil is the country of the future, and always will be; Obama is the Brazil of today's politicians. He has obviously achieved nothing. And in the American context, to be the hero of five Norwegian leftists, is not exactly politically positive