Mike Smyth: B.C.'s political drama has only just begun

Columnist Mike Smyth writes about the final vote count in the B.C. election.

Maybe Christy Clark should invest in an extra-large bottle of Liberal shark repellent right about now.

Hanging onto a majority in the B.C. legislature — even a razor-thin one — was Clark’s political life-preserver.

But now that majority power has slipped through her fingers, Clark finds herself in treacherous waters — and it’s only a matter of time before the sharks start circling.

Elections B.C. finally confirmed Wednesday that the May 9 election resulted in a minority Liberal government — the first minority in 65 years.

It all became official when the final absentee ballots were counted in the riding of Courtenay-Comox, where NDP candidate Ronna-Rae Leonard beat Liberal Jim Benninger by 189 votes.

The Liberals desperately needed to take the seat (the NDP led by just nine votes on election night) to secure 44 seats and a bare majority in the 87-seat legislature.

It was not to be. The final result: The Liberals won 43 seats, the NDP 41 and the B.C. Green party won three. The Greens also won the crucial balance-of-power votes in the hung parliament.

The overall popular vote in the province was also incredibly close: The Liberals got 40.36 per cent of the votes, compared with 40.28 per cent for the NDP. In the entire province, the Liberals got just 1,566 more votes than the NDP.

Yes, that means the Liberals technically “won” the closest election in B.C. history. They got the most votes and won the most seats and Clark is still the premier.

But this is a pyrrhic victory for Clark if there ever was one, though she insisted Wednesday she will try to govern.

“We have a responsibility to move forward and form a government,” Clark said.

The operative word is “try.” To succeed, Clark must get the support of Green Leader Andrew Weaver and his three swing votes. All three parties have assembled negotiating teams as the backroom wheeling and dealing begins in Victoria.

Weaver has already said the Greens are willing to work with anyone and he has not ruled out supporting Clark and the Liberals in a minority-government situation.

But a Liberal-Green deal will be difficult to secure because the two parties are far apart on key issues such as the Site C dam, the Kinder Morgan pipeline and liquefied natural-gas development — all supported by the Liberals and opposed by the Greens.

Weaver has mentioned three minimum demands in return for his support: Official-party status for the Greens in the legislature, removing big money from political fundraising in B.C. and a move to a proportional-representation voting system.

Official-party status is an easy one. Clark might even be willing to ban corporate and union donations to political parties if it means staying in power.

Proportional representation would be a huge disadvantage to the Liberals and could be too much to ask.

But those are all issues that could be hashed out later. In order to survive in the short term, Clark must convince Weaver and the Greens to support a new Liberal throne speech and budget — the first two crucial votes in a new parliament that must meet soon.

John Horgan’s NDP, meanwhile, will also be courting Weaver, and the Greens and New Democrats appear to have much more common ground. The NDP and Greens both oppose that dam and that pipeline. They both want big money out of politics. And they both support proportional representation.

The dream scenario for the NDP is to team up with the Greens to topple Clark on an early confidence vote in the legislature (like the vote on the throne speech or budget). Or the NDP could negotiate a formal accord with the Greens before the legislature convenes.

In either scenario, Horgan would have to convince Lieutenant-Governor Judith Guichon not to call a new election, and instead let him have a crack at governing, with the Greens backing him up. If he’s successful, Horgan would be sworn in as the new premier, and the NDP would be back in power for the first time in 16 years.

“Sixty per cent of voters voted for a new government and that’s what they deserve,” Horgan said, adding he’s optimistic he can do a deal with Weaver.

Weaver said Wednesday he hopes to announce an agreement of some sort with another party as early as next week.

Where does all this leave Clark? Swimming in those shark-infested waters.

A lot of Liberals will be furious that she took a commanding majority government, five balanced budgets in a row and the best economy in Canada and bungled the election with a thoroughly boring, uninspiring and petty campaign.

Some will demand that she quit as Liberal leader. The sharks will be circling.

All she can hope to do now is persuade Weaver to dive into the water and save her, before the sharks start chomping.

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