Surely not another Cold War!

Tensions continue to brew between the US and China. Will Asean be forced to take sides? The earlier it acts to form regional mediation institutions, the better its chances of avoiding such an uncomfortable situation.

In the many workshops on US-China relations that I have attended in the last decade, one very popular view about the future of US-China relations is based on the global consequences of the rise of Germany in the 1890s and on the rise of Japan in the 1930s. In both cases, there was a disastrous war between the emerging super-power and the existing super-power. So according to this popular view, Asean should expect a war between China and the US.

In my view, this prediction will surely be wrong, but the absence of a war in the future does not imply a “no worries” outcome for Asean.

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