Hungary Economic Sentiment

Hungary: Economic sentiment ticks up in September

September 25, 2014

In September, the GKI-Erste economic sentiment index improved slightly as it rose from the minus 4.1 points recorded in August to minus 2.3 points. The increase came after two consecutive months of declining sentiment. According to the GKI economic research institute, economic sentiment continues, “the stagnation with minor fluctuations observed in recent months.” September’s print reflects improvements in both consumer sentiment and business confidence.

Consumer sentiment rose from minus 21.9 points in August to minus 19.1 points in September. According to GKI, “[h]ouseholds assessed their financial situation, the possibility of purchasing high-value durables, and their savings capacity for the following year slightly less more favourable than in August.”

Business sentiment increased from 2.2 points in August to 3.6 points in July. According to GKI, the reading resulted from an improvement in expectations of all sectors except construction.

FocusEconomics panelists expect total consumption to expand 2.1% in 2014, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection. For 2015, the panel expects total consumption to increase at a 2.0% expansion.
Panelists expect fixed investment to increase 7.7% in 2014, which is up 1.2 percentage points over last month’s estimate. In 2015, the panel sees investment expanding 3.2%.

According to a second estimate released by the Central Statistics Office (KSH) on 5 December, the Hungarian economy continued to grow robustly in the third quarter, boosted by strong consumer spending and skyrocketing fixed investment.

According to a first estimate released by the Hungarian Central Statistical Office (KSH) on 6 December, industrial output increased a working-day adjusted 3.3% year-on-year in October, up from September’s 2.2% yoy rise.
In month-on-month, seasonally and working-day adjusted terms, industrial production rose 2.0%, strongly contrasting a 2.1% contraction in September.

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