Should we bring back Jayson Werth? Status update: no update here, in that Werth has not signed elsewhere but the tea leaves definitely seem to indicate he’s moving on.

What do we do at Catcher? Status Update: Nothing yet; our former backup Jose Lobaton has already signed, penning minor league deal with the Mets. Not that he was going to really be an option for us. We’ve seen some rumblings about how the team is going to manage Matt Wieters‘ playing time, and there’s a couple more options out there at catcher (not the least of which is J.T. Realmuto, who has expressed publicly his desire to be traded now that the new Marlins ownership group has gutted the roster. I still don’t see any change here in direction; I think the team will stay with internal options.

Will they pursue FA extensions with key players? Status Update: there were brief rumors of extension talks with Harper/Boras, same with Rendon. Nothing with Murphy. So not much.

Do they need to pursue a Starting Pitcher? Status Update: not much news here yet; they’ve gotten Tommy Milone to return to the fold, signing a ML deal that I would think includes an opt-out if he doesn’t make the team (but that’s an assumption). Right now the 5th starter is the winner of an A.J. Cole/Erick Fedde/Milone spring training run-off. I would expect to see something happen here at some point this off-season. One complicating factor: Cole is out of options…

What is the Nats 2018 outfield? Status Update: no news and no trades from depth, so its still looking like Eaton/Taylor/Harper with Goodwin and Stevenson as backups. They did intimate that Victor Robles will be starting in AAA so that he can play full-time, a decision I fully endorse. Goodwin in particular got some mention from John Sickels in his prep post for the Nationals farm system, wondering aloud what Goodwin’s numbers would look like with a full season of ABs. I don’t see that happening here … so I still think there’s a trade coming. Another complicating factor here: Goodwin is now out of options.

Do the Nats leverage their sudden depth of position players in trade this off-season? Status Update: nothing yet here … maybe Billy Beane has been on vacation and he just hasn’t returned Mike Rizzo‘s phone calls for the next big Oakland-Washington trade.

What do we do with the bench? Status Update: so far we’re starting next year with Severino as the backup catcher, we just signed Adams to replace Adam Lind as the lefty PH bench bat. I still think we need a RH bat to replace the Chris Heisey role, a guy who could play a corner in a pinch. Otherwise we’re on track here. Keep in mind; Murphy may not be ready for opening day so right now we’re looking at Wilmer Difo in the starting lineup.

What do we do with the bullpen? Status Update: the team re-signed Brandon Knitzler, which I think is a quality move but may also complicate the bullpen. We now have three relievers who are out of options (Grace, Solis and Romero), all of whom were utilized last year. If you keep the four guys now signed for big money FA deals along with the 3 out-of-option guys … then you’re leaving in particular Koda Glover in the minors. Or on the D/L.

So, just 3 of the 9 categories really addressed at this point, though not all 9 categories were really Mandatory to do this off-season.

What does our 25-man opening day roster look like right now?

SP: Scherzer, Strasburg, Roark, Gonzalez, Cole

RP: Doolittle, Madsen, Knitzler, Kelley, Grace, Solis, Romero. (4 of these guys have guaranteed contracts, the other 3 are out of options)

C: Wieters, Severino

Inf: Zimmerman, Murphy, Rendon, Turner, Adams, Difo (likely one more here with Murphy on the 10-day D/L to start the season)

As I mentioned in the comments on the previous post, I was away from computer all weekend so I missed the opportunity to comment on all the major things that went down.

So this is a clearing house of thoughts.

Joe Ross to undergo Tommy John; I don’t think anyone saw this coming, but then again nobody saw it coming with Stephen Strasburg either. With Stras it seemed to be a one-pitch injury. Ross’ pitch f/x data for his last start indicated that he was definitely off his typical velocity; compare his 90mph average on July 9th to his July 4th start, where he started routinely in the 93-94 range, before dropping off a cliff towards the end of his outing. If I had to guess, I’d guess he might have injured his arm somewhere in the 7th inning or so of his July 4th start and tried to give it a go the next outing before his teammate Max Scherzer spotted his distress. Ross finishes a struggle of a 2017 season where he got an amazing 10.55 runs per 27 outs of support; in 6 of his 13 starts the team scored more than 10 runs for him. He clearly had settled down from early season issues, throwing four consecutive quality starts and again looking like perhaps the best #5 starter in the league. Now he’s out until the all star break of next year at best, likely until September of 2018. He’s only 24, mind you, but this injury comes at a tough time for him; he’ll be arbitration eligible for the first time after the 2018 season, one in which he may only make a handful of starts. So this will cost Ross millions of dollars…. and will save the Nats at a time when they may be looking to save pennies for Bryce Harper.

Looking at the rotation for 2018; as we’ll soon find out (read on), there’s not a whole lotta help on the farm, so the Nats are probably shopping for starters this coming off-season, unless you guys think Erick Fedde will be ready for prime time next April.

In the meantime, it leads to a sticky situation in the near term yet again for this team. They traded away all their near-to-the-majors starting depth last off season, and have had to give starts already this season to three non-rotation guys (Jacob Turner, A.J. Cole and the ill-fated Jeremy Guthrie start early on). Well, now their starting depth in the minors is even weaker; A.J. Cole’s AAA era this year is a nifty 6.00 and the only other 40-man roster starter (Austin Voth) is even worse; he’s pitched to a 6.38 ERA in Syracuse this year and is either doing a rehab assignment or is being outright demoted to Harrisburg as we speak.

So instead of going with an internal option, the brain trust is enlisting the help of MLFA Edwin Jackson, who eternally owes Mike Rizzo a bottle of champagne for NOT offering him a qualifying offer when he became a FA after his run-of-the-mill 2012 season for us. The lack of the QO enabled Jackson to get a 4 year deal he never would have gotten otherwise, but cost the Nats a pick that they probably could have used … heck a junior college starter drafted towards the end of the first round in 2013 … probably would have been Sean Manaea, currently dominating for the same Oakland As who just sent us our next wave of bullpen reinforcements (more on that in a moment). But I digress.

We plan on giving Edwin Jackson another shot in the majors, despite his giving up 11 hits and 4 walks in 5 innings for Baltimore earlier this year, despite his pitching to a 5.89 ERA in San Diego last year (where everybody looks like a Cy Young winner). I’ll say this: if the Nats can score in double digits for Jackson the same way they did for Ross … maybe it won’t matter than his ERA sits in the 6-7 range. It’ll look like a slow-pitch softball game.

But what choice do the Nats have? Erick Fedde you say? Have you seen his inconsistency in Syracuse? Its like the Nats didn’t learn from jerking Tanner Roark around a couple years ago; Starting pitchers are creatures of habit. They eat the same meal 2 hours before they pitch, they do the same running and lifting sessions in-between outings. If you have a successful starter, you don’t suddenly decide he’s a middle reliever. So it should be of no surprise that Fedde’s all over the road right now.

Jacob Turner? Well, he’ll be around too; I’m guessing he’s option 1-B to Jackson as 1-A. But Turner is no savior; you don’t get DFA’d and pass through waivers and accept an outright to AAA as a pitching prospect in the modern game unless the rest of the league really, really doesn’t like you. To say there’s a lack of quality starting pitching depth in the league right now is kind of an understatement.

Who else is starting for this team in the upper minors? Here’s the rest of the Syracuse rotation right now: Sean O’Sullivan, Jared Long, Greg Ross. Her’es their current AAA ERAs respectively: 4.40, 5.29, 6.34. Here’s how we acquired them, again respectively: MLFA in May of this year, MLFA in April of last year, and again MLFA in April of last year. So three org guys just eating up AAA innings, none of which are pitching especially well. No wonder Luke Erickson over at www.nationalsprospects.com has given up tracking the AAA team this year.

Maybe we drop down to AA: how’s that look? Bleak. Taylor Hill is already demoted once this year and is closer to a release than a promotion. Austen Williams: 6.85 ERA. Matthew Crownover is pushing a 5.00 ERA. They just got Wirkin Estevez off the D/L: he’s only got 26 innings of 4.10 ERA pitching above A-Ball. Lastly there’s John Simms, the “Ace” of Harrisburg’s staff who is pitching there for the *fourth* successive season. He’s got solid numbers: 4-6 with a 3.57 ERA but middling K/9 rates and some hittability; would you rather roll the dice on a grizzled veteran with more than 1700 innings on his MLB resume or go with a guy who you refuse to promote even to AAA despite the same decently solid numbers year over year? I think you have your answer.

So lets see how it goes. Jackson’s Syracuse numbers for 2017 are pretty nifty; 20 innings, 9 hits, 22 ks. Oh and 10 walks; we’ll just say that last part a little more quietly and focus on the positive. As I noted in the comments section in another blog … we’re about to see just what the difference is between AAA and the majors.

Meanwhile, after more and more ridiculousness in the late-innings of games (including a 7 run collapse late last week that nearly blew a 10-run cushion), the Nats finally made their move to bolster the bullpen (and hopefully grease the skids for a wholesale shedding of deadweight off the 40-man roster by everyone involved in the latest debacle). Rizzo called up his best buddy Billy Beane and pulled off what I think is a pretty good trade:

Acquire: Sean Doolittle, Ryan Madsen: both mid-30s one inning guys with excellent numbers this year and neither being one-year rentals.

Give up: Blake Treinen, Jesus Luzardo and Sheldon Neuse

Treinen just needs a mental D/L trip; there’s nothing appreciably different with his stuff from last year (when he was good) to this year (when he has been awful). Classic change of scenery guy who returns to his drafting team and probably has a solid rest-of-2017. Luzardo and Neuse are good prospects but young and several years away; perfect for what Oakland wants. I’m bummed they’re leaving (especially Luzardo, who by all accounts has come all the way back from TJ surgery and had looked solid in his early GCL outings). Prior to 2017, Neuse was generally about our 8th best prospect and Luzardo 12th or so. Both have improved their rankings with their play this year, so this may look more foolish if Luzardo becomes a #2 starter in a few years. But as they say, you have to give up stuff to get stuff.

As others noted, the Nats managed to get these two guys without giving up any of their top ranked prospects (Robles, Soto, Fedde, Kieboom), which is a huge win.

Is this the best we can do for backup infielders? photo via offtherecordsports.com

Happy New Year!

Nats Beat reporter Jamal Collierposted another inbox; here’s how I would have answered the questions he took.

Q: The Nationals and A’s have proven to be strong trade partners over the years, and I believe the A’s have a few players to fit the Nats’ needs. Do you think Washington could trade for Sean Doolittle and Stephen Vogt?

A: We mentioned this in passing in the comments discussion recently; it does make sense to try to acquire Oakland’s closer Sean Doolittle. Acquiring Stephen Vogt makes less sense right now, given that the Nats have guaranteed Jose Lobaton money for 2017 and have signed Derek Norris to be the starter. For similar reasons as to why the “Nats are still interested in Matt Weiters” arguments make no sense, acquiring Vogt wouldn’t make much sense either. If you acquire Vogt, you tell the league that you need to trade either Lobaton (no options/5-year veteran who cannot be sent down and who has a guaranteed 2017 contract) or Norris, and it isn’t exactly the best way to go about maintaining a player’s value when the whole league knows you need to make a deal. That’s why we got very little in return for Danny Espinosa, and that’s why signing a third catcher to a guaranteed deal wouldn’t make any sense.

The one issue that may be blocking a Doolittle deal is the farm system; as in, we’ve gutted it this off-season already. Billy Beane knows how valuable closers are; he just watched Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen cash in and he has seen what the likes of Andrew Miller and Wade Davis fetch in trade. I’m not saying Doolittle is in that class of pitcher … but he’s not chopped liver. The price tag just may be too high for Mike Rizzo to consider.

Collier says Doolittle would be a good fit, but that Oakland isn’t shopping its players right now.

Q: Wilmer Difo is the only middle infielder on the 40-man roster, other than the starters. It seems to me the Nats need another infielder on the bench. Emmanuel Burriss seems to be the only other option. What do you think?

A: Yes, the Nats definitely need another MLB quality backup infielder. Emmanuel Burriss is not that; he’s a 4-A guy who only played last year because Philadelphia isn’t really trying right now. Wilmer Difo is not the guy you want to be injury option #1 either. This is why I want Stephen Drew back, as discussed ad naseum in the comments recently. But I also admit Drew may have priced himself out by virtue of his 2016 performance, and it may be an outlier season. Who else is out there? Not much at this point. I think the Nats are kind of thin right now all the way around; if we lose any of these key players for any length of time, the alternatives are pretty poor. Imagine giving 400 ABs right now to Difo or to Michael Taylor? I mean, what does this team do if Anthony Rendon, not exactly known for being a rock heathwise, misses 2 months? Who plays 3B for that time? Matt Skole?

I think the team needs a bit more depth both in INF and OF right now, honestly.

Collier says the Nats are comfortable with Difo as a bench option, as evidenced by his presence on the NLDS roster. But I don’t buy that; i think he was on that roster as basically a 25th man/pinch runner guy, not because he had earned it.

Q: The offseason trades seem to point to the Nats believing Stras is going to be healthy, why would they think that?

A: Because he’s not the first player to suffer a Strained Flexor Mass, because its not nearly as severe an injury as other arm injuries, and because the team is probably hyper-monitoring Stephen Strasburg‘s recovery. Its basically a 1 month injury, 2 if you’re being really cautious. Had the Nats made the World Series i bet he woudl have pitched. I can’t imagine any reason he won’t be ready to go by 4-1.

Collier notes that both he and his agent have said multiple times there’s no issues, plus Strasburg was throwing bullpen sessions in the post-season…. he’ll be fine.

Q: With the trade to the White Sox, I’m concerned that the Nats have denuded their farm system of Major League-ready top prospect pitchers. In case of injury to any of the top six Major Leaguers, it seems that there will be no “next man up” to fill in.

A: Me too! The Nats gave no less than 20 starts to pitchers outside the opening day rotation in 2016. That same number was 28 in 2015, 13 in 2014, 25 in 2013 and just 12 in 2012. So that’s an average of 19.6 “extra” starts per year thanks to injuries and unplanned absences. You’re absolutely right; the first two likely candidates to take those starts in 2017 (Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez) were both flipped for Adam Eaton. Now we’re looking at those starts going to A.J. Cole and to Austin Voth initially, and the pickings get slimmer from there. “Slim” as in, there’s only really 7 starters on the 40-man at all, so if you really get stuck you’re looking at Oliver Perez getting stretched out, or putting someone like Blake Treinen back on a starter routine. And past that? We’re talking a MLFA type like Jacob Turner or our own already-outrighted-once Taylor Hill. In reality we’d never get that far; we’d promote Erick Fedde or maybe hope that reformed knuckeballer J.D. Martin has something in the tank. But those are not really confidence-inspiring options. Here’s hoping for a healthy 2017 from the rotation!

Collier acknowledges the same and thinks the team may sign some starter depth before spring training starts.

Q: Perhaps the Nats could bring in some veteran starters to Spring Training, like they did last year with Bronson Arroyo, to compete for rotation spots and as insurance in case of an injury. What will it take to get Trout? Sure he would like to play for a winnèr.

A: See above, yes. 2016 Syracuse had some decent alternatives: Paolo Espino and Aaron Laffey both seemed to be good alternatives. Espino signed with Colorado, Laffey is still a FA. But there’s a slew of veteran FA starters out there who would probably take a non-guaranteed deal. I could see Mat Latos coming back b/c of his Dusty Baker connection. I could see an injury-case like Kris Medlen or Matt Harrison look at the SP depth and say to himself, “gee, I can probably beat out Cole and Voth for the 6th starter job!” So yeah you never know.

Trout trade; that’s just internet click bait. He’s not going anywhere. Owner won’t trade him, and putting together a package of prospects to acquire him could never work out; it’d either be not enough for the Angels, or too much for the acquiring team.

Collier tries to speculate on a package for Trout, coming up with Turner, Robles, Ross and perhaps Fedde. Think about that trade, what it would do to the current team, and what it does for the future of the team versus what you acquire, and ask yourself if its worth it.

Kelley may be first in line for in-house closer options. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

I was excited to see an “Inbox” in my MLB.com RSS feed for the Nats today, and assumed it was venerable long time Nats beat reporter Bill Ladson poking his head up post winter-meetings to do some work.

But no! Its a new guy: Jamal Collier, listed as “Nationals Beat Reporter.” I don’t think Ladson has been replaced; maybe the Nats are big time now and need more beat reporters!

Nonetheless, Collier did an inbox. Here’s how I would have answered his questions. I love these inboxes because they’re great debate points for the comments, with people asking questions (some good, some dumb) that we all ask ourselves from time to time. Here we go. As always, I write my answer to the question before reading his and edit questions for clarity if needed.

Q: Last year, general manager Mike Rizzo had a Plan A and Plan B, but he seemingly settled for Plan C more than once. What are Plans B and C this year?

A: If Mike Rizzo had to fall back to plan “C” last year (presumably Daniel Murphy in lieu of the litany of bats that he missed on), then that’s a heck of a plan C. This year he didn’t miss on a big acquisition; the Adam Eaton trade is by far the “biggest” he’s ever made in his Nats career, eclipsing the big Gio Gonzalez trade in terms of significant prospects dealt and impact players brought back. Yeah he missed on Sale .. but he didn’t *need* Sale, and he made it clear he was only shooting for him because of the rarity of a true Ace getting dealt.

Rizzo really had a short “to-do” list this off-season: resolve CF or SS one way or another, get a Catcher, and get some bullpen help, up-to and including a closer. He’s done two out of three, “missing” out on vastly overpaying for a 50-IP “proven closer” to the big-spending clubs. Is that the worst thing in the world? I don’t think so. I’m guessing his “plan B and C” for closer now is to buy a couple of former closers off the FA market and see how they look side by side with in-house options like Koda Glover and Shawn Kelley. I’m ok with that; as I’ve mentioned time and again, the Nats organizational chasing of over priced closers has cost us more than a few good prospects in the last few years, and yet we’re still sitting here thinking we have a closer problem. I also wouldn’t be shocked if Rizzo calls up one of his favorite trading partners and moves another prospect or two for a mid-range closer.

We havn’t traded with Billy Beane in a few weeks; maybe we make a move for his closer. Does Oakland even have one?

Collier basically says what I said, then throws out the names we keep hearing about in terms of closer trades (David Robertson, Alex Colome) and FA options (Greg Holland).

A: To be a leader you kind of have to be guaranteed to be around for a while. Certainly that’s not Harper, who (lets be honest) is likely gone in 2 years. Rendon isn’t far behind. The three guys on the longest deals are Ryan Zimmerman, Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg. Zimmerman is the guy who would make the most sense but he seems like a background guy. Its hard for a starting pitcher to be a “leader” since he’s only doing it every 5 days, but Scherzer is the best possible candidate based on his gregariousness. Strasburg has always been reserved; he’s not a good candidate.

Truth be told … this clubhouse is going to do a serious turnover in the 2018-2019 time-frame, and a whole new slew of guys will be defining the makeup; only the two SPs are really going to be there for it. I’d say Scherzer is going to define the soul of this team for the next generation.

Collier makes a great point; new acquisition Adam Eaton is a big presence in the clubhouse, will be around longer than practically any other bat in the clubhouse, and is in a position to take the reigns.

Q: Will the Nats get free-agent catcher Matt Wieters and then use their extra catchers to get Robertson from the White Sox as closer?

A: This theory doesn’t make a ton of sense to me; if the Nats buy Wieters, aren’t they killing Derek Norris‘ trade value? They not only tendered but signed a deal with Jose Lobaton for 2017 … he’s now got 5 years (and was out of options), so he can’t get sent down … so do they plan on just lighting that money on fire?

Plus, the assumption that they can just flip their spare parts for a quality reliever is foolish. What did we trade to acquire Norris? Pedro Avila, a guy who pitched in low-A last year. Now, I know the White Sox don’t exactly have awesome options at catcher, but in today’s reliever market why would anyone think we could get a bonafide closer for a couple of backup catchers?

Collier expresses the same doubts I do about the acquisition and the trade.

Good thoughtful answers from Collier. I say this of course because he agreed with me

By the way, this is probably the last post before Xmas, so If I don’t see you Happy Holidays.

UVA’s Connor Jones kicked off this year with a gem. Photo via UVA sports

Welcome to the 2016 College Baseball Season! Despite there still being snow on the ground here, D1 programs all over the country played their first series this past weekend.

I know; I’m one of the few guys out there (at least in DC blogger-land) covering the College game. So i’m ok if you keep moving on. I probably got really turned onto the College game as I started to really look at the college arms the Nats were drafting, and the focus the Mike Rizzo establishment puts on college players. Its a very “Billy Beane-esque” strategy; college players have more ABs, more consistent stats and more experience playing against “known quantities” of talent (especially those guys in the top baseball leagues like the SEC and ACC). Now with two very good local programs (UVA and UMD) and a ton of local guys who i’ve been following long enough to track them from HS draft prospect to College draft prospect, I continue coverage of the College game.

Maryland’s Mike Shawaryn gave up 2 runs on 3 hits in a loss at Alabama

UVA’s Matt Thaiss went 6-13 in the kickoff tournament down in Myrtle Beach.

Ole Miss’ Error Robinson (a dc-native but quickly rising on the draft boards) went 2-for-7 with 3 walks and 4 runs in a their opening series sweep against FIU.

UNC’s J.B. Bukauskas had 9 Ks in 4 2/3’s innings but got a hook after showing some wildness in an eventual UNC loss.

I have a comprehensive post about all DC-area prospects coming, headlined by these four guys but also including all the local prep and college players, which we’ll post once HS season starts up.

Meanwhile, here’s some pre-season top-X lists for the new year: you’re going to see the same 4 teams at the top of every list. There’s only 5 or so main sites covering the game, so we’ll go back to these blogs and sites constantly. D1baseball.com and BaseballAmerica.com are the leaders but the other Collegiate Baseball sites are good as well.

And here’s some pre-season All-America lists. You’ll recognize a lot of these names if you’ve followed any pre-2016 draft coverage, and this list will eventually comprise a huge percentage of the first round draft this coming June.

Collegiate Baseball News announced in Dec 2015 their pre-season All Americans and it contains a whole slew of names in contention for 1-1 in 2016. A.J. Puk, Alec Hanson, Corey Ray along with other big-time names such as Kyle Funkhouser, Nick Banks. Maryland’s Mike Shawaryn is a 1st teamer, UVA’s Connor Jones and the Navy’s Luke Gillingham a 2nd-teamer, and Matt Thaiss (UVA), Charley Gould (W&M) and Michael Morman (Richmond) are 3rd teamers.

I may have buried the lead of the post in the title, but I figured we’d want a place to react to the big Xmas gift the Nats gave themselves; pending a physical the Nats have signed Daniel Murphy to a 3yr, $37.5M contract. We’ll assume that the contract doesn’t get cancelled for physical reasons (ala Hisashi Iwakuma) or some criminal issue (ala Aroldis Chapman) in the next 72 hours or so and the team makes it official at some point over the weekend.

Nats acquire the left-handed bat they needed to play a position they suddenly found themselves needing coverage in thanks to the Yunel Escobar trade. They also acquire a guy who makes a ton of contact (just 38 Ks last year in 538 PAs … by way of comparison Michael Taylor struck out 158 times in 2015, in *fewer* plate appearances (511 to Murphy’s 538). Murphy also can contribute with some power; 14 homers last season (and another 7 in last year’s post-season), and some speed (not a ton of SBs last year but he stole 23 in 2013). He makes a ton of sense batting in the #2 hole (assuming of course the team finds someone who can actually get on base for him), but he could also slot in at #5 (assuming Bryce Harper bats 3rd, in order to split up the lefties).

More importantly, the Nats take a veteran solid bat off their closest rivals, who don’t really seem in any hurry this off-season to back-fill their holes in the lineup by the departing Murphy or Yoenis Cespedes.

Some thoughts on the the deal and its ramifications on the Nats:

Assuming he gets an even $12.5m in 2016 per his contract’s AAV, the Nats 2016 payroll just jumped up into the $141M range. I think that comes down a bit (assuming the Nats can shed themselves of one or both of their highly paid closers).

The signing costs the Nats the 17th overall pick in the draft. A tough pill to swallow; on his own i’m not entirely sure Murphy is worth that pick. perhaps you can see the value in the significantly lower contract value than what Murphy was probably worth on the open market. I guess you don’t really covet the 17th overall pick when you have just one year left with Scherzer, Strasburg and Harper all together. You have to try to win now with these guys, since more and more it seems clear the team won’t retain either of its young starlets (not with talk of Harper getting a $400M contract).

Ben Zobrist: 4yrs/$52M from the Cubs. Zobrist is four years older, had only a slightly better 2015 split than Murphy (.276/.359/.450 versus .281/.322/.449), play a similar set of positions (4 5 7 and 9 last year for Zobrist, 4 5 and 3 last year for Murphy), and had similar bWARs (1.9 for Zobrist, 1.4 for Murphy). Yet Zobrist gets $14.5M more and one additional year despite being 4 years older and almost guaranteed of being a fossil at the end of his contract. Do you think Qualifying Offers are working? Do you think this is going to be topic #1 to address in the next CBA?

Murphy will require a roster move; the team is at 40/40 on its 40-man. My uneducated guess: Erik Davis.

I’m guessing there’s an open competition between Espinosa and Turner to be the opening day SS. And my guess is that Espinosa wins it for now. Something in my gut tells me that the improvements he’s made plus his superb defensive ability will win out over Turner’s potential. But, no more 2B for Espinosa; he’s either the starter at Short or the utility guy. I could be wrong; maybe Espinosa is destined to be Mr. backup infielder again in 2016, riding the pine while Turner learns how to be a major leaguer. I hope not; I think at this point in his career he’d be so gutted if he got beat out that he’d be close to useless as a super-sub.

Murphy is not especially gifted at 2nd defensively. Negative UZR/150s across the board. But, its not nearly as important having a plus defender there as it is on the right hand side of the infield, and the return of the gifted Rendon plus the near gold-glove quality of Espinosa at short could really help the Nats and their pitching staff convert more ground alls to outs.

All the 2B on the Nats depth chart just became serious trade bait. 40-man roster guys Wilmer Difo and Chris Bostick? 100% blocked for 3 years. Murphy may be able to play other positions … but the positions he can fill are also filled by guys who are better than Murphy and also here for more than 3 years. So I wouldn’t be surprised by some dealing coming soon. Maybe Billy Beane can give us something we need in return for some closer-to-the-majors middle infielders and 5th starters (of which we have plenty in AAA).

$12.5M AAV for a 1.4 bWAR player. Yeah; there’s some serious money in the game right now.

Does this move make the Nats a better team? Yeah I think it does. By himself Murphy doesn’t move the needle a ton, but he gives this team some things they didn’t have yesterday. I like his contact hitting, his lefty bat, the addition of some needed power. The team missed out on so many other guys this off-season, they probably felt they had to make this deal. So they did.

Espino probably had your best overall season out of the AAA staff. Photo via milb.com

After skipping the minor league pitching staff reviews in 2014 (that silly thing called work interfered), I’m back for 2015. I’ll be reviewing the six minor league levels and the major league levels going from high to low. In this series, we have already published the MLB version for 2015.

For some historical perspective, here’s 2013’s version (featuring Tanner Roark), here’s 2012’s version (featuring John Lannan) and 2011’s version (featuring Tommy Milone) of this post for AAA Syracuse. In the missing 2014 post I likely would have “featured” either Taylor Hill or Rafael Martin.

Syracuse starters. The rotation started the season with Cole, Jordan, Hill, McGregor, and Billings. It finished the year with Espino, Bleier, McGregor , THill, Jordan and Cole. Here’s an overview of the starters Syracuse used, starting with the original five starters.

A.J. Cole was Syracuse’s opening day starter in 2015. On the year, he was 5-6, 3.15 ERA, 1.18 whip, 3.90 FIP and 76/34 K/BB in 105.2 innings. Cole got yanked up and down a couple times on the year, with one ill-fated spot-start for the major league team where he looked completely out of his depth against Atlanta (not exactly the ’27 Yankees). His K/9 is down, BB/9 is up from his stint in AAA in 2014, though his BAA improved significantly. I’m struggling not to write him off; after all he’s only 23, he’s still listed in or near the top 100 prospects in all of the minors, and he still could have value. I just don’t think its going to happen with the Nats. He’s been pushed down on the starter depth chart and (save an injury) has no chance of making the 25-man roster in 2016. So is there value in having him pitch another year in upstate New York? I could see Cole getting flipped to a team that could use a cheap 5th starter candidate. Outlook for next season: Syracuse’s opening day starter again, unless moved.

Taylor Jordanwas 5-6, 2.95 ERA, 1.15 whip, 3.41 FIP and 61/27 K/BB in 103 IP. He’s slipping further and further away from a rotation job that seemed rather likely after his 2013 sterling debut. His AAA numbers were pretty good this year but he got lit up in his one 2015 spot start (to be fair, it was against Toronto and the best offense in the majors). His margin for error is just so much lower because he doesn’t get the K/9 that other guys do. Unlike Cole though, Jordan doesn’t necessarily wow the scouts and may be tougher to move. I think he plays out his options string as a AAA starter with occasional big league cover and then gives it a go in another organization. Outlook for next season: Syracuse rotation again.

Taylor Hillwas 3-10 with a 5.23 ERA, 1.62 whip, 3.85 fip and 70/29 K/BB in 118 IP. Not a good year for Hill, who got a handful of mop-up bullpen gigs in late May/early June and wasn’t entirely impressive while doing it. See all that we’ve said for Cole and Jordan, but lower expectations a bit more. I have Hill near the top of my “guys to get DFA’d to make room on the 40-man roster” at this point and he needs to figure out what changed between 2014 (2.81 ERA) and this year (5.23 ERA, both at Syracuse). We won’t really know if he’s getting pushed out of the rotation until deeper dives into the AA rotation. Outlook for next season: Syracuse rotation/release candidate. 1/6/16 update: Hill was DFA’d on the 40-man to make room for Stephen Drew: we’ll update in this space when his roster status is finalized.

Scott McGregor(boy I have a hard time typing that w/o remembering the old Baltimore Orioles hurler from the mid 1970s) was 6-6 with a 4.04 ERA, 1.43 whip, 4.67 fip and 63/35 K/BB in 107 IP split between starting and relieving. He started in the rotation, having signed as a MLFA in June of 2014 originally then re-upped with the Nats over last off-season to continue his role as AAA 5th starter/long-man. But his performance slipped considerably this year. I don’t see him listed on the MLFA tracker so its possible he’s signed through 2016 with the team, so we’ll assume he’s reprising his role again in 2016. Outlook for next season: Syracuse long-man/spot starter

Bruce Billingswas 8-5 with a 3.63 ERA, 1.26 whip, 3.23 fip and 90/28 K/BB in 121 IP. The MLFA produced well in a season spent in a similar role to McGregor; 4th/5th starter who made way for prospects as they got moved up but who eventually spent most of the year in the rotation. His numbers are about what you’d expect for a veteran minor leaguer/classic AAA org guy; he’s declared again and will look to build on his decent 2015 with an organization where he has a better shot at getting called up. Outlook for next season: in AAA for another organization.

Paolo Espino had a nice season, getting promoted up from AA and giving Syracuse 20 starts of 3.21 ERA, 1.15 whip, 3.68 fip pitching (88/19 K/BB in 117 AAA innings). The 2014 MLFA signing (as with McGregor) stuck with the team for 2015 and could be an interesting piece going forward. Question is; is he a MLFA for this upcoming season? My records and research disagree with each other: he’s *not* listed in the BA MLFA tracker nor is he on the official MLB declared MLFA list (links at the top), but the drat tracker says he’s a MLFA. I’ll assume our private files are not better than MLBs and assume he’s still under team control. Outlook for next season: Syracuse Rotation.

Richard Bleierwas 14-5 with a 2.57 ERA between AA and AAA this year. 65/16 K/BB in 171 IP. Bleier had a nice season, working his way out of AA and finishing the year in the AAA rotation. His K/9 is shockingly low given his stat line, perhaps why he’s not likely to draw much attention from the team’s executives on 1/2 street. He’s a declared MLFA already for 2015 and likely plies his trade elsewhere next year. Outlook for next season: in AAA for another organization.

P.J. Walters was acquired mid-season from the Dodgers for cash: for the Chiefs he threw 60 innings of 5.35 ERA and got 5 spot starts towards the end of the year. 52/23 K/BB in his 60 innings for Syracuse on the year. Walters has significant MLB experience, with 152 IP across several organizations dating to 2008. He’s yet to really have a decent MLB stretch thought, and his AAA numbers are starting to look just as bad. Given the team’s dearth of RH bullpen depth options though, I think its safe to say they’ll keep him around to see if he’s an option to consider. Outlook for next season: Syracuse bullpen.

Other guys who got spot starts here and there:

Joe Ross had 5 starts before getting called up to the majors. See MLB write-up for more. Outlook for next season: Nats #4 starter.

Matt Swynenberghad exactly one AAA start of 3 innings this year before spending the rest of the year on the restricted list, which usually indicates retirement. We’ll see if he gets an official release this coming off-season. Outlook for next season: retired/out of the organization.

Mitch Lively had 2 spot starts but was mostly a reliever; see the reliever section.

Sam Runion and Eric Fornataro each had a spot start but were primarily relievers; see the reliever section.

Matthew Spann, James Simmons and Austen Williams each got called up to AAA from lower levels to provide exactly one spot start. See High-A for for Spann and Williams, AA for Simmons writeups.

Strasburg and Fister had one-two rehab starts for Syracuse in 2015.

Syracuse Relievers: taking a look at the relief corps. We’ll organize relievers by going by IP from most to least. Anyone with less than 10 IP will get cursory analysis at the end.

Rafael Martin was Syracuse’s closer for a good portion of the season, getting 12 saves in 50 IP across 46 games. We discussed Martin at length in the MLB writeup but will repeat our prediction here. Outlook for next season: Syracuse bullpen/MLB reliever depth.

Eric Fornatarowas a waiver claim last off-season, then DFA’d off the 40-man roster before the season started. He then failed to impress, posting a 5.54 ERA in 50 innings before getting released in July. Outlook for next season: in another organization/out of baseball.

Matt Gracehad a 2.40 ERA in 48 IP and spent a decent amount of time on the MLB roster (17 ip across 26 appearances). See MLB writeup for more. Outlook for next season: Syracuse bullpen/lefty reliever coverage.

Evan Meek posted a 2.15 ERA across 37.2 innings in the early part of the year, effective if a bit wild (33/19 K/BB in those 37 ip) and, after not getting consideration for a call-up, asked for his release to sign with a Korean team. Outlook for next season: still in Korea or with another Organization.

Sam Runionposted a 2.91 ERA in 65 IP across AA and AAA after getting picked up in June of 2014 as a MLFA. 1.43 whip, decent K/9 rates, just not enough to get a sniff at a MLB call-up. Just a classic org guy who is a MLFA this year and likely plies his trade elsewhere next year. Outlook for next season: MLFA, re-signed per BA ML transactions so AAA bullpen again (updated 12/29/15)

Mitch Livelywas in basically the same boat as Meek; put up good numbers (2.31 ERA, 0.97 whip, but wasn’t called up and decided to go overseas. He was released on 6/17/15 so as to sign with a Japanese team. He posted a 6.75 ERA in 16 games in Japan; not sure what the future holds for him. Outlook for next season: still in Japan or with another Organization.

Juan Gutierrezwas signed off the AAA waiver wire in August 2015 and threw 34 mediocre innings (3.47 ERA)for Syracuse down the stretch in a classic “we need someone to pitch innings for us to finish the season” move. He’s a MLFA and likely keeps on moving for 2016. Outlook for next season: in another organization.

Jose Valverdesigned a month into the 2015 season with a typical veteran MLFA contract that guaranteed an opt out after a couple of months if the big club didn’t use him. Valverde closed effectively for Syracuse until July, when he opted out. He did not sign elsewhere for 2015. He’s playing in the DWL but I wonder if he’s done; his last two MLB stints were both ugly. Outlook for next season: in another organization/out of baseball.

Manny Delcarmenhad an 8.14 ERA in 21 IP across 18 appearances before getting released in early June. He played out the rest of the season in Mexico. Outlook for next season: in another organization/out of baseball.

Rich Hillsigned as a MLFA late in the 2015 spring from the Yankees, pitched decently as a middle reliever in Syracuse and likely had an “out clause” forcing the team’s hand, who released him in late June. He picked up with Boston, pitched well for their AAA squad, got promoted back to the majors, pitched lights out in 4 starts in the end of the season … and signed a $6M contract to pitch for Oakland in 2016. Go figure. Did the Nats miss the boat here? This isn’t the first time they’ve had a guy in their AAA rosters who went on to have significant success for another club (Colby Lewis, Marco Estrada, Chris Young). Maybe they should have given Hill a 40-man job while they were trying out everyone else in late May/early June. Maybe you could say the same thing about a whole bunch of the MLFA MLB-experienced veterans who passed through Syracuse’s roster in 2015. Outlook for next season: Pitching for Billy Beane out in Oakland on a $6M deal.

Other Relievers who appeared in AAA of note (not including Rehabbing MLBers): Outlook for next season for all of these guys seems the same: either continued “org guy” middle reliever or minor league free agent in another organization.

Solis, Treinen and Rivero each had a nominal amount of AAA innings: see MLB writeup for them.

Demny and Davis spent more time in AA than AAA: see Harrisburg write-up.

Everyone else not mentioned had 5 or less IP in AAA and were mostly in other levels.

Summary

34 different hurlers passed through the Syracuse locker room this year. Phew. And it seems like a huge percentage of them have already churned out of the organization, looking for their next stop. I guess this is the way AAA teams go these days. We may see more MLFA veteran arms coming into the system for 2016 given the number of guys they’re losing.

Its hard to say whether we really learned much from the AAA staff this year; the team kind of already knew what it had with its highest-end prospects in AAA (the likes of Cole, Jordan and Hill). Almost the entire bullpen was veteran MLFAs who likely won’t be back, most of whom never got a chance to contribute to the major league team in its time of need in 2015.

Lets look at those teams that altered their rotations and talk about how much they improved. In order of perceived impact:

1. Los Angeles: added Mat Latos and Alex Wood, replacing two placeholders who had taken over for the injured Brandon McCarthy and Hyun-Jin Ryu. Add Latos and Wood to what the Dodgers were already rolling out and I feel like they have become the new team to beat in the NL.

2. Toronto: adds the best pitcher on the market David Price to a team that really, really needed a bump in their pitching. Price is used to the AL East and gives Toronto (coupled with their big Troy Tulowitzki move) a leg up on their divisional rivals. The rest of the division mostly stood pat in terms of the trade deadline, and the division is there for the taking. I believe Toronto can catch the Yankees; they’ve been incredibly unlucky by RS/RA and should regress upwards.

3. Kansas City: Johnny Cueto immediately replaces the injured Jason Vargas in a “nice timing” move, and KC solidifies its grip on the division. This move wasn’t about getting to the post season as much as it was about winning once they get there. Cueto is their 2015 version of James Shields; the workhorse who they can lean on in the 5- and 7-game series.

4. Houston: added Scott Kazmir and Mike Fiers, who will slide in to the 4th and 5th spots and supplant the under performing Scott Feldman and others who need more time in AAA. While not as flashy as some other teams’ moves, this makes the back of Houston’s rotation stronger. And, it should be noted, Houston’s main AL West rival (Los Angeles) not only didn’t make a move but just lost one its key starters to injury (C.J. Wilson). Houston’s rebuilding plan looks like its at least a year ahead of schedule and coupled with serious injury issues to their competitors look like the favorite in the AL West.

5. Texas: adds Cole Hamels, who Philadelphia *finally* moved after sitting on the pot for 2 years. I think this move is more about 2016; I don’t really see Texas making a move in 2015. But it is a significant move: Hamels could give Texas one of the best AL 1-2 punches when Yu Darvish comes back, and then they have a nice collection of arms to choose from to fill out the rotation (Gallardo, Holland, Perez, Lewis, Martinez).

6. San Franciscoadds the underrated Mike Leake, who slides into the #3 spot, prevents the Giants from even considering using Tim Lincecum in the rotation any longer, and certainly gives them an upgrade over what they were getting from Tim Hudson. SF isn’t *that* far back from LA in the division … but more importantly is working hard to secure a WC spot.

7. Pittsburghmakes a minor move in adding J.A. Happ, who slides nicely and fortuitously into the spot that A.J. Burnett may be giving up to injury.

8. Chicago Cubscuriously added Dan Haren to their rotation; adding a mediocre #5 starter to a team that plays in a hitter’s park may back fire. I would have thought Chicago would have been more aggressive to try to secure the 2nd wild card, but then again is it fair to say their rebuilding plan is also a year ahead of schedule right now? Maybe they go big in the off-season to add starters behind Lester/Arrieta.

Sellers and the Impacts to their rotations:

– Detroitmoved backwards, selling their ace but acquiring a good prospect in Daniel Norris. This move also lets them try out a couple of starter prospects for the rest of a season where they’re clearly not going to catch Kansas City.

– Oaklandwas a seller but didn’t augment their rotation very much, getting a #5 starter in Aaron Brooks. Oakland has been completely snake-bit this season, sporting one of the best run differentials in the game but having lost 75% of the one-run games they’ve played. Billy Beane isn’t afraid to deal though and he’s got more than enough starting pitching coming off injury to compete in 2016.

– Philadelphiagot the rotting corpse of Matt Harrison in return for Hamel, along with a whole slew of players; I doubt Harrison ever pitches for them.

– Cincinnatisold off their two best pitchers and now are doing open auditions at the MLB level for their 2016 rotation.

– Miamifinds themselves in a familiar place, selling off assets so as to line the pockets of their owners needlessly. They lose two rotation guys but augment from the D/L and the farm system. They’ll regroup for 2016 and continue to challenge as the worst organization to their fan base.

– Seattlewas sort of a seller, flipping off back of the rotation guys for spare parts. They did not meaningfully alter their core rotation. Their problem is simply under-performance.

– Atlantacuriously parted with one of the most valuable resources in the game; the effective MLB-minimum starter. They ended up with draft picks and prospects and a Cuban wild card in Hector Olivera.

– Milwaukeeparted with a 5th starter, giving those starts to their #1 prospect Taylor Jungmann. A good deal for them.

Quick thoughts on the Tyler Clippard for Yunel Escobar deal that went down Wednesday night.

Bummed to see Clippard go. I got a chance to play golf with him a few years back and he’s a real nice guy. Nothing but a gentleman on the course, just a guy who liked playing golf in his spare time. The thing that made me laugh the most from the game was his telling us that he rides his bike to the ball park every night … and then back home at midnight, through some rather sketchy streets around the stadium, all the way back to the townhouse he shared with Drew Storen on capitol hill. If you’ve never been to Oakland’s stadium … well lets say I hope Clippard doesn’t try to ride his bike home at night from there.

Does Clippard get a shot at the closer role in Oakland? Probably not; Sean Doolittle took over for the deposed Jim Johnson last year and did pretty well. Very well actually: a 0.7 whip and a 1.71 FIP. Not bad.

I tend to agree with the Mike Axisa CBSsports.com analysis posted here; Nats have some interesting flexibility now with Escobar. He could be the 2B starter (making the transition from SS to 2B is an easy one for a quality infielder). He could enable the team to move Ian Desmond and have Escobar be the starting shortstop until Trea Turner is ready (or proves himself not to be up to the task … Escobar is signed through 2016 with an easy 2017 option).

Is this a good trade for the Nationals? Clippard was a vital and valuable part of the bullpen; is he replaceable? Not easily. The Nats have shed two of their three best relievers from last year with no real replacements (no, i’m not counting Heath Bell) other than internal promotions. Perhaps this means we’ll see a couple of middle relief veteran signings now. I think this also could mean Blake Treinen‘s being called into reliever duty instead of being in the Syracuse rotation. Who pitches the 8th inning now? Aaron Barrett?

Even given Clippard’s value, his escalating salary did mean he made more sense as a closer for another team. Maybe that happens in Oakland regardless. Or maybe Billy Beane keeps on dealing and moves Clippard again. But the Nats plugged a hole for now and potentially for the next two years as well; a price that had to be paid for what they acquired. And lets be honest; it is probably easier to find a good right handed reliever than it is to find a MLB-average offensive shortstop.

Escobar’s offensive numbers were a tick below MLB average last year; an improvement over the presumed person he’s deposing in Danny Espinosa. What’s more of an unknown is his defense; he was excellent in 2013, awful in 2014 in terms of range factors. Since you don’t need nearly the range at 2nd, i’m guessing he’s going to be an excellent defender there by default. So to this effect, he fits the Rizzo mold. Good defender, decent offensive player.

The knock on Escobar, of course, is character. It stems from an incident in 2009 while with Toronto when he put the words “Tu ere maricon” on his eyeblack. As I noted in the comments section, I tend to give him the benefit of the doubt here, believing that the media took one of many possible interpretations of this common latin insult (and hopefully not the one he meant) and ran with it … suddenly the message and the story that remains to this day is that he used an “anti-gay slur” and that Escobar is “homophobic.” Or perhaps not: according to a wikipedia guide of Spanish profanity, the term maricon as used by Cubans in particular most likely means exactly what he’s accused of saying. I dunno; what’s the statue of limitations for making a poor decision?

One of the most famous images in baseball history. Photo AP via public domain/wiki

I just finished reading the excellent book “Bill Veeck: Baseball’s Greatest Maverick” by Paul Dickson (an excellent read by the way; you’ll have a completely different viewpoint on Veeck, the integration of baseball in the last 1940s and the modern in-game experience after reading this book), and was thinking of the infamous Veeck stunt of putting in Eddie Gaedel as the lead-off hitter of a game in 1951.

At the time, the commissioner Happy Chandler and the AL league president immediately voided his contract and banned Gaedel as being a “mockery of the game.” But after reading Veeck’s book, which details a near constant state of aggravation between himself and whoever was in charge of baseball at the time, its hard to determine whether this reaction was more about Gaedel or whether it was about an institutional hatred of Veeck.

However, consider this: today’s OBP-crazed baseball world, would a revisiting of someone like Gaedel be a worthwhile endeavor for a team? Imagine having a player who could lead off every game and nearly guarantee a walk every time? A runner on first with nobody out has a run-expectancy (RE) of about .826 (using 2013 numbers). The RE of a typical lead-off hitter with a .400 OBP should be about 40% of the difference between the RE of nobody-on, nobody out (.467) and nobody-on, one out (.248), or about .336. The RE difference? .826-.336 = .490. That’s nearly a half a run, per game! Maybe in practice it’d be slightly less than .490 , since your under-sized lead-off hitter may end up making an out here and there … but it wouldn’t drop that much considering how difficult it’d be to *really* throw three strikes into a strike-zone not much larger than the baseball itself.

What manager wouldn’t take nearly an additional half a run expectancy per game? That’s an awful lot of run expectancy for teams that generally average somewhere between 3.1 and 5.2 runs per game (those were the highest and lowest scoring teams in 2013 on a per-game basis). If the Nationals had half a run more per game last year, they would have had a pythagorean (expected) W/L record of 93-69, an improvement of 9 wins over their expected W/L record. Not insignificant.

Another huge difference in the game today versus 1951; a much more “understanding” American culture when it comes to discrimination of any type. How can anyone justify banning someone based on their having dwarfism or some other size-limiting disability? That’d never fly in a court of law. This topic was discussed on a sports law blog I found a few years back and the author points out some very obvious points; would the voiding of the Gaedel contract have been possible in today’s legal environment considering the Americans with Disabilities Act?

Your Eddie Gaedel hitter bats leadoff every game, walks, then is immediately replaced by whoever would have normally been your lead-off hitter. And because of this simple act, you’re likely to score about a half a run more per game.

How could anyone claim it was a mockery of the game if you demonstrated how much this move helps you win?

An interesting thought. Perhaps this is the next Billy Beane market inefficiency to exploit.