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Friday, December 15, 2017

Market kind of, "threw me for a loop", yesterday, as the new high on the NASDAQ was immediately sold, and the trend on the 1 minute chart I posted in yesterday's update broke down.

Confirms what I was seeing in the charts, earlier in the week, but I didn't expect a new high, before the reversal. Perhaps the round number on the NASDAQ was the bulls psychological target? Who knows, but as long as you knew enough to sell as the pink support line broke, you did well.

Here is the chart I posted soon after the open:

NASDAQ seems to be whipsawing in a range - could be an expanded flat, or a broadening triangle, and the lack of volatility confirms a consolidation pattern.

Maybe we see the lower purple line tested this OPEX? I'll update this chart throughout the day, so watch my twitter feed.

Silver and gold retreated as expected.

$SOX may be your best bet, so watch for a break out into a powerful wave "C" there.

I called the Russell 2000 a buy going into yesterday's close, and we're seeing a bounce on the $RUT this morning, but not sure we've seen the bottom. Lock in profits...
$RUT presents another confusing chart pattern, but support is the pink line, and again at the lower purple line - another broadening range.

That's all the time I got this morning. Watch my twitter feed for continued market updates @3xtraders

Thursday, December 14, 2017

After a couple days of confusing sideways consolidation, in a sub-minuette wave "iv" (of 3); the market is on track for a nice Santa Claus Rally, in wave v of 3.

$SPX chart shows the market found support at the bottom of a bullish channel (seen in blue), after yesterday's "sell the news" event (Fed decision). Also see the contracting sideways triangle pattern, with a little panic wave "e", which I predicted yesterday.

It's not often, that we get a clear indication of market direction, heading into an OPEX Friday, but most traders have already covered their short bets, and probably doing their Christmas shopping. This is typically what happens around each holiday, as I'm sure I've said 1000 times.... and to top it off, the cabal is throwing everything they have at this market, so that they can collect on their yearly bonuses. They're panic buying, and the fact that the Elliott Waves are working, proves that these are people driving this market, not machines. Greed rules the day!

Here's the timeline: Build a base today (Thursday), rally into OPEX Friday, and then hold up above the next level of support 2670, on low volume next week. That should be enough time to complete the next wave 4 (consolidation)... and that sets up for a rally into the new year - in wave 5.

And not only did we catch several nice trades intra-day on Wed, but we also saw Silver and Gold, and the miners, rally on the Fed news.

I believe yesterday's pop in Silver and Gold - on Fed news - is not worth chasing, but we'll see. I don't have time to update the chart here, so watch my twitter feed @3Xtraders, and we'll be watching for a more tradable bottom in metals in early 2018. Same goes for NatGas....

While this is all very exciting, we're going to see profit taking in 2018, when the lower tax rates kick in, or once wave 5 completes. That's going to bring with it higher volatility, and better trading in 2018, and that's something to get really excited about - a major trend reversal!

Tuesday, December 5, 2017

Last update I nailed Friday's dip, to within 7 points on the Dow, so I feel like I have a good handle on this market. We also saw the $VIX get above the 13 level, for an instant, before the market recovered, back above the 2630 level on the S&P.

Friday's chart: "Nailed it"

Yesterday the SPX popped higher, and by the end of the day had filled the gap. If you're not familiar with the technical market, term, "gap fill", try investopedia.

The clueless nitwhits at Bloomberg, were calling yesterday's action a "sector rotation", because the NASDAQ was down slightly? That's not a sector rotation. We're not seeing Tech sell off, and go somewhere else. We are seeing "bricks and mortar" (retail) rally, as I predicted last month, as retail continued to be heavily shorted, along with certain food chains like Buffalo Wild Wings up 50%, since I called it out.

$BWLD - seen re-taking the 200 day, on heavy volume. So much for the bearish death cross... worthless indicator.

We even see Macy's screaming to the upside, so there have been some good trades to be had...

$M - saw this rally coming a mile away, and there's nothing like a good short squeeze during the holidays.

LB, GAP, GME, all up big - to name a few, and those who make monthly donations to this website haven't missed a thing, believe me!

As far as the broader market, it's being held up - into the end of the year - so that money managers get their yearly bonuses, and as long as the $VIX remains below 12.50, that trend is going to continue.

I do think that once we see profits locked in for 2017, we're going to see a massive sell-off, either into primary wave 4 (in a bull market), or the Armageddon trade - similar to what we saw in 07-08, but much worse, and prolonged.

Financials have traded into what looks like Super Cycle wave "B", and a SC wave C is a very powerful thing. Financials are not leading, despite what the fake financial news networks report.
New highs mean nothing, in a bearish pattern.

Friday, December 1, 2017

It's been a while since I've provided an update, except for the article I posed to LinkedIn - a couple weeks ago - in which I said there was "no market correction in sight", and that "Transports were now in a position to lead the Dow higher", and the rest is history.

This was my prediction on $TRAN, although it moved too far too fast. Not good.

Transports & the Dow, both hit new all time highs, just yesterdays, so now what? Sell Transports & the broader market, of course.

If you were following my twitter feed on Thursday, you were advised to "sell into strength", and sell the top of the channel, seen on the chart below.

Volume is up, which points to short covering, yet the RSI remains relatively weak, and that's because this rally lacked participation. Emerging markets - which had lead the entire rally... - are down, as is tech, semi-conductors, and the NASDAQ. What does this mean? What is means is nobody is making money, except those who engineered this fake rally, over the Thanksgiving holiday. New money has not come into the market, rather Hedge Fund managers, robbed Peter, to pay Paul, and this rally in the Dow is nothing more than a PsyOp designed to make the average investor feel good, and go deeper into debt. This rally has nothing to do with the proposed tax cuts, which are now stalled in the Senate, and have everything to do with driving the Dow up into the holiday shopping season, and Wall Street bonuses being paid out at the end of the year. Keep in mind most funds close their books, before the end of the month, so we could see a mad rush for the exits, before year end.

Regardless of my thoughts on this market, and the economy, the chart says "sell".

Short term support on the Dow looks like 23914, which is only a 350 point shakeout below where most technicians would believe obvious support is (at 23975 where I painted the green line). Support, and your buy signal is actually slightly lower, at 23914.

Short term support on the SPX looks like 2625, and the pattern resembles a blow off top in a broadening top (seen in blue). Expect a dead cat bounce off the top of that pattern, but I don't believe that will hold, as we trade into Dec. OPEX.When the 2597 level breaks, 2572 should provide support for a snap-back rally going into Hanukkah, and Christmas.

The $VIX has shown signs of strength over the past couple day's, and that's something to be nervous about. It tells me, whoever has been pumping this market, is preparing to dump it, and get paid on their bearish options bets. The $VXO is up 22% this week.

Most hated sectors:

Financials - The entire rally - since March - looks like a head fake (wave B triangle), and the throw-over in wave "e", seems to confirm it. Sets up for a powerful wave "C".

$DJUSFN

That's all the time I got. I have a lot going on including preparing for a lights out situation.... Hoarding gasoline, and propane, and such. I suggest you have a plan in place when the proverbial SHTF.

Tuesday, October 17, 2017

Update on the new membership website: I haven't even gotten started yet; got a lot on my plate right now, including preparing for a possible SHTF scenario this winter.

I'm learning the more you think about providing for peoples basic needs, in a lights out situation, the more involved it gets, and you can spend as much as you like. Anywhere from $100, to $1000, to tens of thousands of dollars, on everything from electric generators, to home defense, but I'm just going for the basics, and hoping that, if the grid does go down, it will be back up within a few weeks. Thinking about starting a separate blog on the subject.

Market Update:
In the last update I predicted the market would continue to hold up into OPEX, and Friday is options expiration. So far so good. I also included a Citigroup chart, that was holding up, but that chart has since broken support. Could be the hedge funds, who constantly target me, just wanted to prove a point... but I have to trust the charts. Every new market high is being dumped, as I pointed out yesterday on the 1 min chart below.

Getting back to financials for a minute: The long term $BKX continues to trade into what looks like a broadening top pattern, at the top of the range we've been watching for the past few years. See the larger broadening pattern labelled 1-2-3-4-5. That's a major topping pattern. Could hold up a few more months, but I believe we're going to see a prolonged bear market commence in early 2018.

Another sector which I'm expecting to lead the next pullback is the healthcare sector, and there is a 3X leveraged health bear with the ticker symbol $SICK. This is a thinly traded fund, so be sure to use limit orders, and exercise extra patience, when trading in an out.

Healthcare $XLV - as far as timing; when the 50 day ma breaks you know what to do.

I do see a scenario for a sharp pullback, which could start as soon as this Friday, and continuing into early next month, but only if the $VIX can breakout above 12, and keep running. As I look at the $VIX this morning it seems more likely that we could see $VIX 8.50 first, and capitulation for most bears. That would correspond with another higher high on the $SPX, and the DOW.

No doubt in my mind the powers that be want to draw the bears in, ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, and that's only 6 weeks away? That's not much time, but once key support (our stop-hunt @ 2548) breaks you're going to see panic selling, like we haven't seen in months.

$SPX - the upper pink line is our stop-hunt. Maybe it gaps down below that level? The red arrows show a hypothetical flash-crash in wave 1, in a bear market. which would certainly lead to several short squeezes - on the rebound - going into the end of the year. Most traders will dismiss the crash, and call it a pullback, and the MSM will chalk it up to "the new normal". Remember the '08 crash actually started in '07, but even today, few recognize that fact.

Before you get too bearish, too soon; I'd like to conclude today's update with the short term $RUT chart, which continues to consolidate sideways. Looks like wave 4, which should end with another slightly higher high - in wave 5 - which you're going to want to sell.

That's all I got, and I'll be away from my desk much of the day.
If I helped you stay on the right side of the trade, feel free to donate to help the cause, using the paypal link in the left hand side menu.
AA

Friday, October 13, 2017

Fake Financial News Strikes Again

Let's trade based on what the financial networks report, said no (pro) trader ever

So, yesterday, we saw a mild pullback into the 2550 area on the $SPX, with the selling accelerating going into the close, and I just happened to be watching the charts, and the Fox Business network; wish I had video.... because it would save me a lot of typing.

With 10 minutes still left to go in the trading day: The red head, who hosts the show in the afternoon - who's name eludes me - reports that if market closes below the low made thethe previous day, that this is somehow confirms a "bearish reversal". This is the most absurd thing I've heard reported in a long time, and that says a lot, considering that I watch a lot of fake news! And as good as I am - at what I do - I would be hard pressed to call a market reversal, based on a slight 1 day decline, especially after making a new (intra-day) market high, on the same day. Usually takes weeks to confirm a bearish reversal.

I did call the reversal is shares of Citigroup - at yesterday's open, and it ended down 3.43%, but even the short term trend remains up. This looks like a sudden reversal into a little pullback (in a powerful wave c/4", not a bearish reversal. Support on $C is 72.20 by the way, in case you decide to chase it going into OPEX.

$C:

Let's get back to Fox Business - and other financial networks - trying to talk the market down. I've been observing this all week, and even predicted yesterday, that they would like to set the bear trap again... and what better time than when superstitious traders are worried about Friday the 13th. No doubt in my mind this was orchestrated.

With 10 min left going into yesterday's close, they bring on some shady looking fund manager ( I wish I had a photo, because this women looked demonic), who proceeds to tell viewers that all the good news has been "priced in", and that we may see a 10 - 15% market correction. Blatant false narrative being created, in broad daylight, by the deep state, who owns every one of these networks, and the governing regulatory bodies as well. These are some of the same people who allowed people like Jim Cramer to tell folks to sell everything, if they thought they would "need the money in the next 3 years" - during the financial collapse of 07 - 08.

If you watched the Steve Bannon interview on 60 minutes, you know his father dumped all of his stock in a panic, because there was a lot of fear mongering in the MSM, and he names names, and accredits that (staged) event - in part - to his (Steve's) political activism. After all, these crooks robbed his father of his life savings, and you can bet they laughed all the way to the bank! Never trust the fake news! Never trade according to what is being reported! Even when what is being reporting, can be authenticated; it's most likely, already been priced in, by the time you learn about it. This is because the Banksters have a direct line to the politicians, and when they decide to pull the rug out you won't be given any warning, believe me.

Allow me to tell you a story about a military contractor (stock) I once fell in love with. I was new to this, and luckily didn't have a large amount of money to invest, because I still had a lot to learn - the hard way. $FRPT was the ticker; if memory serves. They manufacture MRAP vehicles, that were much needed, for the 2nd Iraq war. This was before Cramer started pumping the name. I was sucked in around 30% from the top, I think, so I was up, and feeling good about it, but, before long, came the big reversal, and I gave it all away, and continued to ride it all the way down... all the time insisting the company had value. Sure, it had value, but probably $5 per share, not $24. It was the classic pump and dump; I'll never forget the stock being crushed on the very day it went to the big board, meaning it was not longer trading OTC. I'm not sure if this was considered and official IPO, but you see the same thing happen to overly hyped IPO's all the time. After all the hype, all the good news is already priced in, and I can't think of even one IPO that breaks the, "sell the news" rule. Even FaceBook, was sold, and the weak hands shaken out, before it was pumped into outer orbit (where you see it trading today).

Most of us, when we're new to trading; we search for intelligent sources of information, and think we can outsmart the next guy, but by the time you hear about a hot trade - 90% of the time - the easy money has already been made, and those aren't good odds. Don't be left holding the bag. Don't fall in love with stocks, or gold, or any other trade.

More on trading the news:

Remember when I called the major reversal in Brexit trade, the Russian Ruble trade, and Oil, the Trump rally, and most every other recent event the main stream media has gotten wrong?

There are times when the main stream media circus signals a capitulation point, and other times when I see them reporting falsehoods, in order to manipulate markets, and some times it's hard to differentiate the two, but the $VIX never lies.

Yesterday: $VIX closed below the highs of the day, and was only up barely 1%, when it sold off just ahead of the close, so we know the fear was manufactured. Another bear trap, for those who trust the networks.

This morning: we see the market trading at new market highs again, and yesterday's outlook still holds true. If you need a chart, and have donated to this website in the recent past, feel free to message me for a chart. Make a $30 donation today, and I'll be happy to help you. The New membership website is still in the works.

Thursday, October 12, 2017

It's been a few weeks since the last update, and the market has continued to move higher, as predicted... it's been pretty good trading considering the lack of volatility.

Important Announcement: Relaunch of the membership website is already in the works.

Since closing the membership web site - couple years ago - I've improved my game exponentially, but Twitter is really getting old. Twitter is for political rants, trolls, and deadbeats. "You get what you pay for", I guess, and Twitter is free.

Lately I find myself losing interest in market timing, because it just isn't that challenging anymore. Some of this has to do with the low volatility, and a rally that has continued for - going on - 18 months, without even so much as a pullback. But this lack of enthusiasm also comes from a lack of incentive.... I've been giving it all away for free here, and on Twitter, for that past few years, save for the few donations that help pay for my charting subscription, and a few hardware upgrades.... This has been a great learning experience, and time to take personal inventory, but this isn't charity work! If it were... I'd feel good about, knowing I'm helping people in need, but trading the market is all about making money, at least keep from losing it all, as so many did in '08.

It time to make a change, and relaunch the website. This is what it's going to take to help restore my enthusiasm, and just the thought of it has put a skip back in my step.

I just have some paperwork to fill out, filing fees, and the actual
build... which shouldn't take long. Very exciting! Hoping to launch
before Thanksgiving, and this seems like good timing, as volatility
typically remains low.... this should give me time to get caught up on charting - if need be.

The
new website will be similar to the old membership website, using the same web
service, and apparently they've made some improvements... Subhub, makes it
easy to update on the fly, and subscription renewals are handled automatically. We may make use of a private
twitter feed for intra-day updates, and/or a webinar... whatever the case, I'm sure there are better technical options than we had,
even a few years ago.

I'll probably offer a basic
service, which will include a daily broader market update, and stock
pics upon request, and a premium service, which might include intra-day
updates, Forex, Commodities, and email, and text alerts. I'm still not sure on pricing, but $99 doesn't go very far anymore, and if you can't afford that, you shouldn't be trading, in the first place. Maybe you only want to subscribe when you're stumped, or when volatility is off the chart, or suspend your subscription during periods of low volatility. I may offer a trial 1 month membership at 29.95, but free subs only attract trolls. Folks who
continue to donate to this blog, you can continue as you are, for
now.

My short term, and intermediate term outlook.

Yesterday, the Fed minutes were released, and the market didn't even react, and now we head into another earning season, and you know how that goes.

At some point, all the good news will be priced in, but as long as there's no fear in the market, the market is going to continue to hold up, and MM's want to lock in gains for 2017. This run up into the end of the year, has everything to do with money managers getting their Christmas bonuses... and nothing to do with stock valuation. This is in part why the market is rigged; greed, over integrity.

I do believe the "powers that be", will want to get the retail short sellers involved, ahead of the holidays, so they can set another bear trap, but Thanksgiving is still several weeks away.

Certain stocks have been run up, ahead of OPEX, and you can be sure those Calls are going to pay, because every trade revolves around the options markets, so I guess, I'd be looking for the market to start consolidating sideways to lower, around the end of October/ Early November.

I'll continue to provide relevant market updates to this blog, but the URL 3Xtraders.com is coming with us, as are the charts, and targets. If you need a chart, donate to the cause (using the paypal link located in the left side menu), and message me @3Xtraders.

Thursday, September 28, 2017

This morning I was going to reveal more advanced charting techniques, but the market opens in less than an hour, and I gotta save something for the book...

Looks like were off to the races, but we've reached to top of the new range, and time for some consolidation, in what I believe is wave 2.

Yesterday we traded into what looked like a bullish leading diagonal triangle - in wave 1 - and from there we should've seen some consolidation in wave 2. The market sold off in a straight line (to the 2495 level), and that's an impulse wave, so I've updated that sell-off to a powerful wave c/iv, which was followed by a new market high in wave 5 (of 1).

$SPX - yesterdays chart - I put the arrows on yesterday's chart to show how I though this might play out in
a simple A-B-C correction. Instead the market broke out - not surprising at all.

$SPX updated chart. Now that most bearish traders have capitulated it's time to pull back in what will most likely be a simple A-B-C correction. I'm anticipating an 3-3-5 correction, meaning wave A subdivides into 3, as does the snap-back rally in wave B, which is followed by a powerful wave C (a 5 wave impulse). I'm 2503 is key support, and I expect it to hold above that level. With any luck we can complete the entire correction in 1 day, but could take 2 days and that would set another bear trap for the first trading day of the month - Monday.

Take Care, and good luck.

Donations to help keep this website operating are appreciated. PayPal link is in the side menu.
AA

Wednesday, September 27, 2017

The good news is that there's still plenty of time to prepare for the coming chaos, and I've been busy doing just that, and was up late last night brain-storming... but let's go to the charts.

$SPX - the chart looks like a mess, because trading is choppy. We just came out of a period of extended consolidation, as the market continues to try to build a base above the 2500 (2495) level. Keep in mind this is a 1 min chart, and these moves are smaller than they look...

#INDU - Dow 5 min chart: Looks like the bear trap was set going into Friday's close, just as I had predicted...

We have not even seen as much as a pullback in the $RUT, and that doesn't point to a risk off scenario, and the $VIX continues to stay down. There's just no fear in the market, and that can point to complacency, but it is what it is. Money is being put to work, and money moves markets, and until some event causes working folks to stop investing in their 401k's that trend is going to continue.

I thought the market may top out in a few weeks, around the 2530 - 50 level, but at this rate, it could take the rest of the year.

I remain bearish energy, and money managers need to show they're invested in the best performing sector, Tech, and there's still 2 day's left in the quarter. I'm expecting to see the sector rotation, we've seen over the last few months, reverse. "There's always a bear market somewhere".

Looks like we saw the pump and dump in energy on Monday, but time will tell...

Short term the market is anticipating republican tax cuts, and probably going to get it. There's your catalyst... but then what? Once all the good news is priced in, and everyone is bullish, and fully invested, there's only one thing left to do, and that's to take profits. Hopefully that's the catalyst for a nasty reversal, and not some cataclysmic event. The first leg down, even in a crash is usually written off as a "healthy correction", and buyers step in.... It would be highly unusual to see a sudden crash, and a continuing crash, unless this time is different.

I'm not expecting WWIII any time soon, but a cyber attack, an EMP attack on the east coast, a nuclear attack on a major city, or even a natural disaster, staged (false flag) or real, are all possible catalyst for a major market reversal, and few are prepared for it, and when I say "prepared", I'm talking in a survival sense, not trading. There may be no trading... markets may be closed, as well as banks, and ATMs. Hoard some cash, drinking water, canned goods, batteries, and think about how you're going to cook, and keep warm, if you lose power in the winter.

I'd like to blog, or vlog, on the subject of preparedness, but it's takes a lot of time to put something like that together.

Monday, September 25, 2017

The Fake News at CNBC was reporting this morning, that the Trump administrations new travel restrictions are responsible for the market weakness... a total fabrication!

The truth is: The market continues to consolidate in the same range... in a complicated combination pattern, as it continues to try to build a base above the (SPX) 2500 level.

SPX - Elliott Wave Combination pattern is labeled (W) - (X) - (Y) - (X), and may complete a final pattern (Z) as soon as today, before breaking out to higher highs.

$SOX wants to pullback to support, but may consolidate a little higher first.

Energy looks like sell, but could hold up for a couple more days, as it did in July. Looking for 3 doji reversal candles in a row.

Gold seems to be building a base. It hasn't seen so much as a snap-back rally since the reversal a few weeks ago...

That's about it.

Markets look like it could complete a major topping formation in a few weeks. Not sure if that means a sudden crash, or just a normal pullback, but I'm not taking any chances. I continue to prepare for the worst, and encourage others to do the same. Stockpile some canned goods, rice, bottled water, and batteries. Stock up on any medications, and freeze some water jugs, so have ice on hand, in the event of a grid collapse. Most these things have a long shelf life, so none of it will go to waste, in the event nothing happens.

Thursday, September 21, 2017

Wow, what a great trading day we saw on Wed., and once again we declare victory over the rigged market! Not that we saw any really big moves, but the charts were firing on all cylinders, and I was able to call several market reversals in real time. We even managed to get on the right side of the gold miner trade, switching from bullish, to bearish, after updating the chart in the AM. It was a grand slam!

To Review:

1. Right off the bat, we identified resistance on the $SPX, at the (higher) open. Good example of why higher highs aren't necessarily bullish. In fact all market tops are found at new highs, and if you find yourself getting squeezed out of your short bets on every new high, you have no conviction... and at some point you're going to end up buying the top instead of selling into it.

Wednesday, September 20, 2017

This is horrible trading, watching the market tread water just above the 2500 level, while investors, and money managers wait for another green-light from The Fed. I thought the fake financial news reported just a few months ago, that Fed policy was no longer an issue, in a break-away economy... that a hoax! The Fed is the market's security blanket.

Remember this rally started with a relief rally, after Florida hurricane, Irma, turned out to be a nothing burger. This also coincided with money managers returning from summer break, and being forced to chase performance, just as I had predicted they would... markets are cyclical.

Yesterday, after 3 hours of searching I finally found a trade in $GDX (gold miners), and it looks like the $GDX will continue to snap-back with gold. Gold, and gold miners, seem to be the new fear trade, as the $VIX continues to be artificially beaten down (rigged)... Guess it's not so easy to manipulate precious metals. Still, I'm only looking for a snap-back rally in gold miners.

$SOX - in wave 5 of 5 (trading into a major top) - managed to eek out a new high. Will probably hold up into the Fed news, and may even retest the highs before tumbling back to earth.

$RUT is also overbought, and looks like it's about to crack, if you prefer less volatility (risk)... I don't have a downside target, but the RUT should trade with the rest of the market. Could pullback as far as 1389 in a risk off situation.

FOMC announcements are usually followed by lower volatility, but since the market seems to have already priced in any good news... I would only expect this to be a "sell the news" event, or a very short lived relief rally. That would look like a a sell into strength, going into the close, scenario.

Tuesday, September 19, 2017

Finished my outdoor project over the weekend, and came back to some of the same technical technical problems I've been struggling with over the past year. Computer freezing on shut down, and refusing to recognize certain solid state drives... got that all sorted out yesterday, and it's good to be back.

Put on my Elliott Wave hat this morning and drew up some new charts.

$SPX Looks like we put in a major market top yesterday - in wave 5, so watch for (2500) support to break down some time today.

$INDU - Depending on how long wave 2 consolidation takes to complete, we could see the snap-back rally coincide with Oct OPEX.

$VIX - yesterday's breakout seen on yesterday's chart. Watch for the breakout, to confirm the reversal. If it doesn't happen today, then maybe tomorrow, on the FOMC statement.

Depending on what the Fed is planning to, that could be the catalyst for the selling, but we're also getting closer to Brexit, and could see a violent reversal in the $GBP, and the $USD. This could be related to new Iran sanctions, because Europe is still making deals with Iran...

$USD - watch for the mother of all short squeezes...

$GBP - Watch for a violent reversal into a powerful primary wave (C) ... once the sugar high wears off.

$BitCoin Yesterday's short squeeze in bitcoin, confirms what I said about it being shorted some how. I'd be a seller....

Friday, September 15, 2017

So North Korea/ China fires another missile over Japan, and judging by what I'm seeing in the pre-market (very little movement), looks like it wants to shrug it off on this Friday OPEX.

I find Options Expiration Friday's particularly difficult to predict, because Options markets are the most rigged of all. For that reason, any times you'll see markets pinned on OPEX. They just want to get paid on their options after driving stocks in a certain direction each month. Every so often you'll see the rug pulled on on OPEX, and nobody likes paying for insurance (in the form of put options), on expiration day. I can only remember 1 day in recent memory, that we saw a "bloody OPEX", but it happens.

Happily, I haven't had to watch the market trade basically flat all week; I've been busy with several out door projects... the weather in Chicago has been gorgeous, and I didn't miss watching a flat market all week. Today I'm at a good stopping point, and it's supposed to get hot, so I'll be watching markets a little more closely.

I've already put some extra time in, charting this morning, and markets look worse than ever.

Oil - Possible crash to new recent lows "in a hurry, with a fury...". Possible wave 3 of C - a very, very, powerful wave. If the chart is correct; should look like a crash.

There are a couple things that could take the market down. Oil and energy is one of them. BitCoin is the other. There's a lot of money invested in BitCoin, and I suspect several large hedge funds, and when it unwinds, the baby will have to be thrown out with the bathwater. I suspect the bankers have found a way to short bitcoin, and they're the ones behind the pump, and dump. Crytpo-currencies are a direct threat to The Fed and our fiat currency.

The Dow - After updating the chart, it looks like a major topping formation, and unless $TRAN can lead, fund managers aren't buying into this fake rally.

$INDU - possible extended wave 5 in a megaphone top.

$TRAN

This could be the end of the line for the bull market of the past 8 years, or at least the beginning of the end. I wouldn't be talking any chances here, in fact I would be NET short.

If the market looks like it's going to hold up into OPEX, I'll be away from my desk again, but I'll be glued to the news, and close-by.

Wednesday, September 13, 2017

I haven't been paying very close attention to the markets this week, but that didn't keep me from nailing yesterday's open, within a few hundreds of a point! This isn't the first time... but I still can't help but get excited when I nail a target like that!

We've seen many stocks ($KORS, $PLAY $DKS, $AMC , $BWLD just to name a few), and the retail sector, getting killed, over recent months, yet the rigged market continues to trade near all time highs. It's a balancing act, and not easy to anticipate which sector will get trashed next. We don't trade retail; I don't know of any easy way to short it, and it's probably too late for that anyhow.

For example: $AMC

Recently, we saw the typical short squeezes... engineered on light holiday volume, and certain stocks continue to run, for example $GM which I called out months ago.

What we haven't seen is tech being sold, and that is proof the market is rigged. Nobody cares if any number of stocks lose 20% a day, but you don't see them selling $AMZN, or $AAPL, because that would draw too much attention... and cause the $VIX to rise, and we can't have that! The market is rigged, and those who continue to pump the tech sector are behind it, in my opinion (disclaimer).

Big tech is going to crash, and I see a top already developing, in Apple.

$AAPL - so much for those who predicted that Apple was going to soar, when it unveiled several more (of the same) over-priced iphones.

We saw the Dow bounce off the 50 day ma again, and that brings with it program buying, and gives the appearance that stocks are bullish. Stocks trading above the 50 day, and the 50 day trading above the 200 day, is a no-brainier, to most money managers, and even the average investor... but we've tested this average at least 4 times now, and that's not bullish. Just as upward resistance that continues to retest, tends to break out, support that continues to retest, may eventually break down.

I don't like the broader market, and most stocks are not rallying higher. It's a stock pickers market, and I've done some buying, but I'd rather trade sectors, or commodities. Whatever works I guess...

$GDX - Found this pattern (looks like consolidation) on the $GDX yesterday. I wouldn't trade it right here, but I would buy a retest of the recent lows, going into Friday, OPEX.

Once we see the big tech names top out, there's a fortune to be made selling the crash, but I think we're still a few weeks away.... possibly in conjunction with a crash in BitCoin. More on that later

I'm still busy working outside, doing some carpentry, this week, but I should be back charting full time as soon as Friday.

This Tuesday morning we're seeing futures up by 3 points. Looks pretty weak, and I suspect we're seeing another pump and dump.

I could care less if the S&P hits 2500, but these round numbers get a lot attention on the trading floor, and gets reported as bullish, by the fake financial news.

I put a bullish channel on a 1 min chart, and this is what I came up with (see the chart below).
$SPX

The $VIX held support I pointed out at yesterday's open, but will probably take out the $10 target.

Emerging markets, and global utilities have lead this rally, another great prediction... They made new highs yesterday. I don't like the chart. I don't even like it if it breaks out and holds up for 6 weeks.

It seems like years since we've seen even a 10% pullback. It's actually been 15 months, and I've remained bullish since the 2016 low. I'm not chasing this! I'm preparing for the next global financial collapse, or worse. I mean I'm stockpiling food, and whatever else I think my family might need when the shit hits the fan. I suspect we'll see a sharp correction, and another rally in 2018, but it's better to be safe than sorry.

I'll be away from my desk most the day.

If this rally continues we'll continue to try to find the top, but I have no interest in chasing it.
AA

Wednesday, September 6, 2017

Got our sell-off as predicted in the last update, and even nailed the timeline, "Technical Tuesday".

The $VIX spiked, taking out resistance on the 5 min chart, before reversing.

Not sure if the market is going to trade in a range, or if this is the beginning of a larger correction, but for now you have to assume it's going to trade the range we've been watching for the past several weeks.

Levels to watch are the 50 day ma on the Dow (21725), "" $SPX 2458, and $VIX 13 (resistance).

Thursday, August 31, 2017

The short sellers typically get squeezed at the top, and if you look at the long term trend on tech, that's exactly what looks like is happening. We haven't seen a pullback in tech in over a year.

The big picture: The RSI, The MACD, and the Volume, have all rolled over, and volume typically precedes price movement. Could hold up for another few weeks... The upper blue channel line is your stop hunt, and key support on this chart is the previous high at 1150.

Key support on the Dow is the 50 day moving average, which was back-tested again on Tuesday, where I called the reversal.

You would think it impossible, that the market would reverse to the downside here, and you'd probably be right, especially since the pro shorts are already on vacation. Never sell into a holiday, unless you see support breaking down. There is a slim chance that we'll see a run for the exits ahead of the long weekend, but odds are you won't...

The Dow: See the 50 day ma:

So there's the bullish view, "but wait there's more..."

The NASDAQ has crawled back into its bullish channel, on decent volume. It didn't even bother back-testing the 50 day ma. This is all about squeezing the short sellers into another holiday as we've seen 100 times before.

$SPX - if you look at the lower channel line you see the same thing... but is the correction complete?

The most recent pullback just seems a little too easy, and Money Managers would rather see the weak hands shaken out, before they're forced to chase performance in Sept. window dressing. Solution: shake out the weak hands, as soon as you return from vacation.

Possible catalysts are am Iranian torpedo boat, and Trump did promise to impose a hefty tax on hedge funds, and someone had to pay for tax cuts.

This leads me to sine bearish patterns I've spotted on the short term $SPX, and the $NDX charts.

$SPX - looks like a broadening pattern, with an upside target of 2466.50 (depending on when it tops), and we could hang out in the top of this range for a few days, and retest the upper pattern line next week - in wave c of D (this straight shot looks like only wave a of D). The wave "E" target it off the chart, 40+ handles lower, and since wave E is a panic wave the sell-off should be swift. I'm thinking Sept 4th, or 5th (technical Tuesday).

$NDX (big tech) - looks like a suckers rally in wave 2. I'll probably have to raise my red resistance line this morning, but anything short of a new all time high points to a suckers rally...

There's also a good possibility that we see our long awaited sector rotation, from tech into Oil and energy. If tech crashes into wave 3, watch for a sector rotation into energy,
while few others are paying attention. Could see a nice short squeeze
there.

$USO - watch the 9.25 target

I'm out of time, so watch my twitter feed... and please try to keep comments to a minimum, especially at the opening bell.

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About Me

I use a hybrid blend of technical indicators; cyclicality, sentiment, chart patterns, and more, to analyze the current market environment and provide short and long term outlook. It was never my intention to become a market timer, let alone try to make a living at it! It just came naturally. In 2010 I became a Hall of Fame Author at stochcharts.com after calling the flash crash, the subsequent rebound, and the eventual bottoming of the market in July of that same year. I drew quite a following, and needed more room to write, so I started this blog. Someone suggested I add a PayPal button, and the rest is history. This has all been a great learning experience, and I am very grateful for the opportunity. Please follow me on Twitter for the latest charts and my continuing up to the minute market outlook.