Since many of you have already treated yourselves to the AFC
half of my projections last week, I’ll spare each of you
the long intro. In short, my analysis in this column as well as
the last one is based on the notion that owners would rather have
their running backs facing the likes of the Carolina Panthers than
the Pittsburgh Steelers or their quarterbacks and receivers taking
on the Jacksonville Jaguars as opposed to the New York Jets; I believe
this is particularly important during the fantasy playoffs. While
many fantasy owners will question that it is nearly impossible to
predict any part of the season – much less the end –
when games haven’t even been played yet, I would counter with
the argument that the defenses of team like the Steelers, Jets and
Green Bay Packers have given us enough over the last few years to
earn the benefit of doubt when it comes to avoiding players that
must face those teams late in the year.

Before we continue, let me clear up any possible misconceptions.
Schedule analysis:

1. is not a strength of schedule
metric that relies on 2010 results to predict this season and
2. is part of the method I use to
project a player’s performance, but far from the only determining
factor I use.

Furthermore, I do not use the PSAs to justify taking a non-elite
player over a tier-one player. Tier-one players are “cornerstone
players” – players who perform well in just about
every situation against just about any defense, in large part
because a tier-one player is almost always the centerpiece of
his team’s offense. Tier-two players and all the players
below them often do not have life quite as easy and, thus, are
more affected by factors such as playing time and the schedule.
It is for these “other” players that I feel like schedule
analysis helps the most, to identify what non-elite players heading
into 2010 have a chance to take the next step, especially around
fantasy playoff time. While the schedule is far from the only
thing that matters when projecting NFL player performance, I feel
it is foolish to suggest that it doesn’t play a significant
role.

While pondering each of the factors I have already mentioned
in my analysis of a player, I also consider factors such as home
vs. away and the likelihood of bad weather games late in the season.
In the end, however, projecting player performance is an art,
not a science. There are many different ways to reach the same
(or similar) conclusion; I just prefer to show my homework and
have found that it is much easier to project a player accurately
when I force myself to evaluate each one on a game-by-game basis.
Much like any projection “system”, each year gives
me the opportunity to tweak and hopefully improve the product.
In my never-ending quest to make my PSAs and Big Boards the best
draft preparation guides I can, I have made a few tweaks that
I want to share with you. Most notably, I have added a yellow
highlight to my matchup-color family to further help drafters
make informed decisions about the players and their matchups.
Here’s a quick explanation of each:

Red – A very difficult matchup.
For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be
considered in fantasy. For a second- or third-tier player, don’t
expect much and drop your expectations for them at least one grade
that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them
to perform like an average player at his position.

Yellow – Keep expectations
fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow
matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier
player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall
right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average
production from them in this matchup.

Grey – Basically, this matchup
is one that could go either way. In some cases, I just don’t
feel like I have a good feel yet for this defense. Generally speaking,
white matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.

Green – It doesn’t
get much better than this. The stage is basically set for a player
with a green matchup to exploit; it’s up to him to take
advantage.

Another major change I will mention here is the way I went about
labeling red, yellow or green matchups. This year, I went to great
lengths to take into account such factors as home field, bad weather
and a whole host of other minor factors that might take too long
to explain here. Very few defenses (the Steelers and the Jets)
have earned the right to warrant reds against almost every offense,
but other teams that may not actually have the greatest defense
(teams such as the Colts, Chiefs and Seahawks) have been awarded
yellows and reds because of the respect I have for their home
fields and/or the way their home field suits their personnel.
Also, since the Jets’ Darrelle Revis is the only “shadow”
CB of note in the league right now, top receivers that used to
get downgraded for going against CBs like Nnamdi Asomugha or Johnathan
Joseph will no longer receive an automatic red because offensive
coordinators often put their best receivers in situations that
don’t require them to face another team’s top defensive
backs while most defensive coordinators nowadays tend to leave
their cornerbacks on one side or the other.

I have also added a column to the right of each player’s
name that lists the player’s age as of September 1, 2011,
with the idea being that drafters like to have that information
at their disposal when making a tiebreaking decision between multiple
players. And finally, I feel I have done a good job this year
at making sure my game-by-game projections more accurately reflect
actual game totals than before. What I mean by this is that even
the most elite players will have dramatic fluctuations in their
actual numbers from week to week, so my game-by-game projections
should reflect that.

As most of you know by now, the purpose of all this work is to
arrive at my Big Board, which is the same tool I use in my drafts
and should be ready before the weekend. Much like team-by-team
breakdowns this year, I believe I have made some positive yet
subtle changes to the Big Board that will allow me to rank players
easier.

Notes:

1) The grey highlight in each team’s schedule reflects
a road game.

2) These are my initial projections and therefore subject to change.
In some cases, these changes will be dramatic as I do put a fair
amount of stock into preseason action.

3) For all those readers whose eyes gravitate immediately to the
player’s final numbers: they are 15-game totals because
most fantasy seasons have a Week 16 title game.

4) Because of the abbreviated offseason,
a few of these projections may change dramatically as my questions
about scheme fits and the like get answered during preseason action;
even the color of some of these matchups may change. However,
any change I make to the final numbers or color of matchup will
be reflected on my Big Boards in the coming weeks.

For those unfamiliar with the way I project player stats and
individual week-to-week consistency (or for those who need a refresher),
please give this article a read for
an introductory course in Preseason Schedule Analysis. (I have
made several changes to my PSA since I introduced it back in 2008,
but the basis for how I build my player projections is pretty
much the same.)

Impressions: As if it isn’t
obvious from the chart above, I believe the Cowboys should be
airing it out this season. While the three new starters up front
probably represent a sizable upgrade in talent, Dallas probably
did more to shore up its pass protection than it did to improve
the running game with the changes. But more than that, the team
has yet to lean on Felix Jones for an entire season nor does it
seem interested in handing Tashard Choice any consistent role
in the offense. Since DeMarco Murray’s game is a lot like
Jones’ – with his durability in question as well –
it would seem that owners would be wise to sell high on Jones
if he can put together consecutive solid fantasy performances
since consistency may be hard to come by and the final quarter
of the schedule doesn’t seem overly welcoming to a team
that may not be all that committed to running the ball anyway.
On the other hand, the passing game may be the most prolific in
the league this season if the starters can stay healthy. Outside
of Week 1 (where I believe the Jets’ Revis will match up
against Dez Bryant), I don’t see a team on the schedule
that has two cornerbacks AND a safety/linebacker capable of holding
Miles Austin, Bryant and Jason Witten down for any length of time.
As I alluded to earlier, the front five should allow Tony Romo
more time than last year’s unit did. Much like the running
game, the fantasy playoff stretch would give me a bit of pause,
but not so much that I would I sit/trade any of the key four players
(Romo, Austin, Bryant and Witten) if I owned them during the second
half of the season.

Impressions: Unlike the Cowboys above, I do have some level of trust
in the Giants’ running game. Not only do I feel the line is
better as a run-blocking unit, but the talent in the backfield and
commitment to that facet of the game is also better. While I’m
not crazy about the Giants’ fantasy playoff schedule, only
the Jets’ defense would make me consider benching Ahmad Bradshaw
over the final three games of the fantasy season. And since in almost
every case he will be his owners’ RB2, it’s not unthinkable
that he could ride the pine for a lot of his owners in Week 16.
What Bradshaw does in several pivotal matchups – such as the
three-game yellow stretch from Week 11-13 - leading up to the fantasy
championship game will probably determine just how matchup-proof
he is going into that final week. It’s quite possible, however,
that owners of Bradshaw will feel he is morphing into a RB1 during
the Giants’ six games before the bye since the Giants have
a number of winnable matchups before Week 7. I believe this schedule
– along with the loss of Steve Smith to the Eagles - will
send Hakeem Nicks into consideration with the elite group of WRs
in 2012, but his future owners need to ask themselves if they will
be willing to bench him that final week after doing such great work
getting his owners to the championship round. I also tend to believe
Mario Manningham will be inconsistent, but he’ll have ample
opportunity to exploit a number of opponents this season with so
much focus being paid to Nicks and Bradshaw. With that said, it
would not surprise me a bit if Victor Cruz not only became relevant
in fantasy this season as well, but also gave Manningham a run for
his money at the starting job.

Impressions: If there is one offense where matchups may not mean
a whole lot this season, it could be the Eagles. From DeSean Jackson’s
ability to run past coverage to Michael Vick’s ability to
turn a broken play into an explosive play, there will few weeks
where this team will struggle to score at least 24 points. Outside
of the two red highlights that appear for each player in Weeks
9 and 15, I would argue that every other game has a good chance
to be a fantasy owner’s dream for this offense. With that
said, I would keep expectations low the first three weeks with
road games vs. St. Louis and Atlanta and a home game against the
Giants – each of which have enough athletes on defense now
to give the Eagles some problems. And as good as it looks right
now, this Philadelphia offense could lose steam very quickly if
Jeremy Maclin is unable to return to camp soon and Steve Smith
is forced to start the season out on the PUP list. (In case you
are wondering, I’m not ready to include Smith in my projections
until I have more information about his recovery.) The Eagles
would still have the depth to overcome those short-term losses,
but there is no doubt the offense would suffer. As long as Vick
is healthy, consider McCoy to be one of the best fantasy backs
around. Much like Brian Westbrook became matchup-proof in his
later years as an Eagle, McCoy is poised to do the very same thing
in his third season. For an owner who wants his RB1 to get a lot
of touches, McCoy may frustrate from time to time because HC Andy
Reid is so infatuated with the passing game. But it is his value
as a receiver – particularly in PPR leagues – that
make McCoy a no-brainer every-week play in fantasy for the foreseeable
future.

Impressions: There are some of these teams that are fun to project…and
then there are teams like the Redskins. In addition to the usual
backfield committee approach HC Mike Shanahan seems to hand us
each season, he decided to make it even better this season by
giving us the same thing at QB. But let’s discuss the runners
first. A little over a month after the draft, the Washington Post
suggested that Roy Helu reminds Shanahan of a young Clinton Portis.
Shortly after the lockout, Washington traded for Tim Hightower,
calling him a third-down back upon his arrival. About two weeks
later, Hightower has supposedly entrenched himself as the starter.
And so it goes with Shanahan and his RBs. Thankfully, owners looking
for a reason to avoid Shanahan’s backfield can point to
the back end of the schedule as a reason to do so. One could make
the case that a Washington RB may not have a good matchup over
the final seven games if I end up being wrong about Minnesota
becoming just an average run defense in 2011. Hightower should
be a nice PPR flex play – for the most part – but
owners have a right to be weary of trusting him for due to his
past fumbling issues and Shanny’s reputation for a quick
hook. If you do roll the dice with him, a good time to sell may
be after Week 8 when he has a great chance at posting two solid
games vs. Carolina and Buffalo. Moving on to the passing game,
the John Beck-Rex Grossman should serve as the ultimate test of
Shanahan’s mettle with QBs since he has already stated that
he is willing to “stake his reputation” on either
player. Chris Cooley’s knee injury further makes this passing
attack even more questionable, although Fred Davis is one of the
better backup TEs in the league and a viable late-round fantasy
option should Cooley miss any time during the season. For the
most part though, Santana Moss’ value and role hasn’t
changed much from last season and he has the kind of schedule
which should allow him to be a strong WR2 performer in PPR leagues
(or WR3 in non-PPR). Otherwise, there are just a lot of names
to put on fantasy watch lists for now. Given the QB situation,
it’s hard to imagine more than two players (Moss and Cooley/Davis)
performing at a high-enough level consistently to warrant starting
consideration.

Impressions: What was already going to be a difficult schedule just
got a bit harder since the Bears’ offensive brain trust demoted
Johnny Knox to second-string status behind free agent signee Roy
Williams. That’s not really meant as a knock to Williams –
who has shown he can be effective in a Mike Martz offense –
but more as a lack of highlighting players and their strengths.
Knox’s deep speed would seem to complement Williams’
physical game underneath the best while Devin Hester’s elusiveness
in the open field would seem to be accentuated the most if he worked
mostly out of the slot. (In other words, keep an eye on this situation.
There’s a distinct possibility the depth chart will be fluid.)
For the passing game, none of the first three matchups on the schedule
look all that appealing. The next four pre-bye games may be of some
use to owners, but I feel there are four more potentially difficult
games – and possibly more – for Jay Cutler’s crew,
including a chilly date at Lambeau Field in Week 16. Based on my
first review of this schedule, I would be hesitant to use any member
of this passing game as a regular starter, with the lone exception
being Williams as a WR3 in three-WR leagues. Thankfully, Chicago
showed itself to be a capable running team during the second half
of last season. Matt Forte isn’t quite matchup-proof in PPR
leagues since Martz tends to fall in love with the downfield passing
game and because he is likely to get replaced at the goal line by
Marion Barber, but he’s close. Seeing the Packers in Week
16 isn’t ideal for Forte’s fantasy owners, but Chicago
seemed to understand late in 2010 that it is important that he gets
his 20 touches. Because the Bears’ defense should keep most
of the games close and/or allow the team to hold the lead late in
games, it seems fairly certain Forte can hit that mark in most of
this season’s games.

Note: Keep an eye out for undrafted
free agent WR Dane Sanzenbacher and free agent pickup Sam Hurd.
One or both players may be able to carve out some value ahead
of Earl Bennett.

Impressions: This Lions’ offense may be very well turn
out to be the fantasy equivalent of an old flame – riddled
with imperfections but so tempting because when the “warts”
are not present, it has the potential to be so good. What do I
mean? The warts of which I speak are the durability concerns of
just about every key player on this offense (Matthew Stafford,
Jahvid Best and even Calvin Johnson – to a lesser extent)
and an offensive line that was weak last season and inexplicably
not addressed this offseason. On the other hand, this team is
built to play indoors on turf and will be lethal when everybody
is healthy for a home game at Ford Field. Let’s first discuss
my early favorite for fantasy breakout player of the year –
Best. In the two games where he was healthy last season, Best
was simply amazing. Much like Arian Foster last season, Best will
have very little real competition for backfield touches since
promising rookie Mikel Leshoure was lost for the season. Of the
teams on this schedule, only the Bears (Weeks 5 and 10), Saints
(Week 13) and Chargers (Week 16) figure to have the speed and
athleticism to bottle him up, but two of those games are at home.
And let’s not forget that despite being healthy for just
those two games, Best still managed to catch 58 passes last season.
Just about everything I just stated about the running game carries
over pretty well to the passing game, where Johnson doesn’t
have a matchup that he can’t defeat. And if Johnson isn’t
being shut down, then it would seem obvious Stafford will have
a good day as well. I can say with some certainty that I am likely
going all in – remembering the old flame analogy above –
on this offense in 2011 and that if I have a chance at landing
Johnson in the second round, Best in the third and Stafford as
my QB2 in the middle rounds in my high-stakes PPR leagues, I will
do it.

Impressions: The Packers are one of about a handful of teams
whose key fantasy players at every position need to be in the
lineup every week, almost regardless of the matchup. Aaron Rodgers
will get tested right away in the season opener against the Saints’
improved defense (which should return to its ball-hawking ways
this season), the Chargers (Week 8) and twice against Chicago
(Weeks 3 and 16). With that said, Rodgers could explode for 250
yards and three TDs in any of those matchups and should be expected
to hit those marks regularly with Green Bay’s ridiculous
receiving corps. I’ll say the same thing this year as I
did last year around this time – if all of his receivers
and linemen stay healthy this season, we could be on the verge
of witnessing one of the best individual fantasy seasons from
a player, maybe ever. No defense has five defenders that can take
away each of the Packers’ top four receivers and Jermichael
Finley AND still account for Rodgers’ ability as a runner.
The running game will likely take on a slightly different look
than it has in years past since James Starks has emerged as worthy
competition for Ryan Grant’s job. Recent speculation suggests
that Green Bay will ride the “hot hand” in the backfield,
but since Mike McCarthy became the head coach back in 2006, the
team has featured one primary RB in every season. (Vernand Morency’s
91 carries in 2006 still qualifies as the most carries a Packers’
RB2 has received.) Whereas the passing game is too dynamic to
be saddled with any red matchups, Green Bay will likely have difficulty
establishing the run in the four aforementioned contests and may
not be the best bet in a few others such as Atlanta (Week 5),
Detroit (Week 12, assuming the Lions’ young DT duo is still
healthy) and Kansas City (Week 15).

Impressions: Since new OC Bill Musgrave stated that his offense
would “major” in feeding Adrian Peterson the ball,
I’ll start out talking about the running game. This season
may be the toughest challenge in Peterson’s career as the
offensive line promises to be the worst he has run behind since
he joined the Vikings. For starters, the left side of his line
is no longer what it once was with LT Bryant McKinnie no longer
on the team and LG Steve Hutchinson starting to act his age; the
rest of the offensive line is average at best. Still, the sheer
volume of touches he will receive in 2011 should help Peterson
come pretty close to hitting the numbers I have projected for
him above despite the fact that San Diego (Week 1), Chicago (Week
6), Green Bay (Weeks 7 and 10) and New Orleans (Week 15) all have
potential to keep him in check. It wouldn’t surprise me
at all if Peterson lacks the consistency this year that he has
provided fantasy owners in the past, but he will also have ample
opportunity to post healthy numbers against some of the poor run
defenses of the AFC West and a team like Carolina. It will also
help his cause that Musgrave plans to use two tight ends regularly.
When it comes to McNabb and his receivers, expect a fairly basic
passing game with Percy Harvin a pretty solid bet to finish the
season with about twice the number of catches that any of his
fellow receivers will manage. As such, this schedule will be a
difficult one for this passing game to overcome. While the overall
number of decent vs. difficult matchups is about even, only Harvin
will be remotely dependable in the five games I mentioned earlier
plus the Chiefs (Week 4), Falcons (Week 12) and maybe even the
Broncos (Week 13).

Impressions: More than any other season I can remember, there
seems to be a growing divide between the number of high-powered
offenses in this league and the average ones. With the addition
of explosive rookies like Julio Jones and Jacquizz Rodgers, this
offense belongs to the former group. It is with that in mind,
however, that I get to present one of the benefits of doing predictive
schedule analysis. As explosive as the Falcons will be on offense
this year, owners will be more apt to expect production early
on and may not get it when Atlanta faces Chicago and Philadelphia
over the first two weeks of the season. For those of you in leagues
that have owners with quick trade triggers when a player isn’t
meeting expectations right away, the week leading into Week 3
would be the right time to see if Matt Ryan or Jones can be had
at a discount. From that point on, only the Packers (Week 5),
Colts (Week 9) and Saints (Weeks 10 and 16) should have the scheme
and personnel necessary to keep this offense from posting huge
fantasy numbers. As far as I’m concerned, owners will want
a piece of this passing game during the second half of the season.
Turning our attention to Michael Turner, his yardage numbers could
be somewhat inconsistent before the bye since only Carolina figures
to own a poor run defense. However, since Turner is the clear-cut
option at the goal line in such a powerful offense, he will have
a good shot at scoring TDs in most of the yellow matchups and
even in some of the reds. Much like the passing game, Turner (or
Jason Snelling if Turner gets hurt) could be a joy to own over
the post-bye schedule. Certainly, the yellow matchups following
the bye will test him, but I don’t see a reason why Turner
cannot average 100 yards and a score over the final eight games
of the season.

Note: My preference would have been to include Rodgers as
the complementary back, but early indications are that Snelling
will return to his old role.

Impressions: Anyone bold enough to invest in the Panthers this
season will do so for a few reasons: 1) the potential of the running
game, 2) Greg Olsen or 3) Steve Smith. With the return of RT Jeff
Otah – one of the better run blockers in the NFL –
DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart have a legitimate shot
at revisiting the fantasy value they possessed in 2009. However,
“Double Trouble” could come close to revisiting the
success of 2008 once QB Cam Newton joins the lineup. I have become
a firm believer in the value of a running QB to the running game,
so Newton’s insertion into the starting lineup should be
just what the owners of Williams and Stewart are hoping for in
short order. The pre-bye schedule should present Williams and
Stewart with plenty of challenges – especially with Jimmy
Clausen under center – with no projected “easy”
matchups until the Vikings come to town in Week 8. (And even that
is a matter of some debate.) Following the break – at which
time I expect Newton in the lineup – only a road game against
the Colts figures to be a difficult obstacle. Other teams like
Houston, Detroit and Tampa Bay should have improved defenses,
but a fully healthy Panthers’ running game with a run threat
like Newton at QB should be able to post some solid fantasy numbers
almost regardless of the competition. The same cannot be said
for the passing game, which is almost certain to be the league’s
least productive. (Clausen and Newton have next to no chance to
succeed over the first half of the schedule with Jacksonville
and Washington appearing to be the two least challenging opponents.
If there is value to be had here, it might be Olsen. Not only
do young QBs tend to lean on their TEs, but new OC Rob Chudzinski
will not be shy about featuring the same position he coached for
four seasons in San Diego.

Note: I believe this coaching staff will have the foresight
to start Clausen to get through the difficult early schedule in
order to get Newton more up to speed with the offense and will
throw the rookie into the lineup at the beginning of the three-game
“homestand” the Panthers have starting in Week 7.

Impressions: Much like the Titans last week, the Saints were
the last team I projected this week due to all the moving parts
and injuries – especially at WR. However, assuming most
of the receiving corps is intact for most of the season, it would
be nearly impossible to bench Drew Brees, with the only red-worthy
opponents coming in the first two weeks. After that, Brees has
a great chance at 250-300 yards and at least 2-3 scores each week
the rest of the way. Marques Colston is a poor bet to remain healthy
with five known knee surgeries to his credit. As good as he can
be in fantasy, Colston is enough of a headache to count on when
he is healthy due to Brees’ ability to spread the wealth
in the passing game, so the setbacks Colston has already experienced
in this training camp are enough to make him a WR3 in fantasy.
Much as is the case with Brees, the schedule suggests that Colston
– or any other receiver for that matter – could explode
on any given week. Jimmy Graham gets a pass on reds on this schedule
because he has the best combination of talent and durability in
the passing game and will likely be the closest thing to a consistent
top receiver this offense will have. The Saints made it an offseason
priority to get their ground game back to the way it was when
they won the Super Bowl in 2009. With the schedule playing out
almost the same way it does for the passing game matchup-wise
and the renewed commitment to the running game, Mark Ingram has
a great shot at holding RB2 value all season long with a shot
at low-end RB1 status. However, I do expect Pierre Thomas to serve
as a nuisance to Ingram’s owners assuming the veteran can
stay healthy, thereby leaving the rookie as a top 15 fantasy RB
instead of a top 10 RB. The biggest shocker above is mostly likely
Darren Sproles, but with the ex-Charger essentially a more durable
version of Reggie Bush, I don’t see a reason why he won’t
be on the other end of a number of swing passes and screens that
HC Sean Payton likes to use. And while his weekly numbers may
be inconsistent, Sproles could turn out to be an excellent mid-round
value pick for owners wanting to fill their flex spot.

Impressions: One season after showing impeccable decision-making
against the AFC North and NFC West, Josh Freeman figures to have
similar success against some of the questionable secondaries of
the AFC South and NFC North. His six INTs from a season ago is
unlikely to be repeated, but just about every other key fantasy
number could be matched or eclipsed since he will be the unquestioned
leader of the offense this season. And with his ability as a rusher
(364 yards in 2010), he goes from a top-end QB2 in 12-team leagues
to a low-end QB1 with the potential for another step up this season.
Despite owning a pretty difficult first-half schedule, Tampa Bay’s
passing game should feel fortunate that each difficult matchup
– Falcons (Week 3), Colts (Week 4), Saints (Week 6) and
Bears (Week 7) – is at home. The Bucs get two more tough
games with road dates in New Orleans and Green Bay (Weeks 9 and
11, respectively), but players like Freeman, Mike Williams and
Kellen Winslow should be very useful at fantasy playoff time with
the Cowboys defense (Week 15) likely the stoutest opposition they
will face. While LeGarrette Blount is reportedly being eased into
the passing game a little bit more this season, his one-dimensional
game will lock him into fantasy RB2 status until further notice.
And just like the passing attack, Blount could struggle a bit
trying to run a few of the defensive fronts he will face before
the bye since teams with weaker run defenses last year like the
Lions and Saints should be much-improved in 2011. Two of the first
three games coming out of the bye continue the same theme, but
after the Packers’ game, Blount could close the season with
a bang since I feel the Titans (Week 12) and Panthers (Weeks 13
and 16) will be two of the weaker run defenses in the league this
season.

Impressions: The much-anticipated duo of Kevin Kolb and Larry
Fitzgerald could not have asked for a much better schedule layout.
There’s no reason why the duo cannot connect for scores
in each of the first five games (not expecting it to happen though)
with four of the secondaries woefully unprepared to handle the
Cards’ top receiver. Pittsburgh (Week 7), Philadelphia (Week
10) and maybe Cincinnati (Week 16) will likely present the stiffest
challenges this passing game will see all season, but if owners
are looking for a PSA all-star, Fitzgerald may be their man. Likewise,
the schedule doesn’t appear to be all that difficult for
Todd Heap with many of the defenses he will face in 2011 a bit
lacking at safety or coverage linebacker. The running game won’t
have life quite so easy with a number of opponents possessing
the capability of finding holes in an offensive line that is still
a work in progress despite the addition of new LG Daryn Colledge.
The Cardinals can reduce some of the effects by installing the
explosive rookie Ryan Williams into the lineup sooner than later,
but it may take another injury to Chris “Beanie” Wells
to force the coaching staff to see what Williams can do in a feature-back
role. Unless Wells and Williams come out of the starting blocks
fast, however, this may be a running game owners want to play
matchups with until one RB clearly takes on the featured role.
Over the first nine games of the season, I would not be surprised
at all if Wells and Williams were held in check in about seven
of them – especially in the four after the bye. After Week
10, owners may catch a break and get a small bump in production
down the stretch with the competition not quite as challenging,
but again, an average o-line could very well hold back the potential
in the backfield.

Impressions: Owners who were hoping for big things from the likes
of Sam Bradford and Steven Jackson may want to petition the league
so they can start playing in Week 4 and end in Week 15. All that
is to say is that the schedule is a lot friendlier in the middle
than it is at the beginning or end. Perhaps no RB will have a
more challenging first month than Jackson, who may struggle to
find any kind of success until the Rams meet the Redskins –
even that is a questionable assertion – and then not again
maybe Week 7 (Dallas) or Week 10 (Cleveland). While Jackson may
catch a break in the few weeks after the Browns, the fantasy playoff
schedule is also daunting. I expect the Seahawks to have a solid
run defense this season and the home field will certainly help
their cause in Week 14 while the Bengals should be slightly better
than average vs. the run in Week 15. But it is the Steelers in
Week 16 that virtually guarantees Jackson will not be on my roster
at fantasy playoff time this season. The signings of injury-prone
RBs Jerious Norwood and Cadillac Williams suggest that St. Louis
will continue handing the ball to Jackson as much as possible,
so my projection (which is optimistic considering his schedule)
is more of a reflection of the fact that I expect him to touch
the ball 350 times again this season than anything else. The future
for Bradford is a bit brighter than it is for Jackson since new
OC Josh McDaniels has shown an ability to get the most out of
the passing game. With each of the first four opponents likely
to key on Jackson, it’s not unthinkable that Bradford will
post some high yardage numbers. While the pre-bye slate isn’t
much easier for Bradford than it is for Jackson, the Rams now
have some weapons with which to exploit all but the best defenses
in the league, assuming Mike Sims-Walker and rookie Lance Kendricks
make the impacts I feel they will. Each of the first three contests
coming out of the bye could present strong challenges as well,
but St. Louis should fare well from that point on until the fantasy
playoffs.

Impressions: For a franchise that has such a decorated history
at the QB position, it must be difficult for its fans to experience
this extended transition period. While Colin Kaepernick could
be the answer one day, his rookie season figures to be better
remembered for the highlights he will produce running the ball
as opposed to throwing it. And judging by the layout of the schedule,
strong fantasy numbers will be hard to come by for this unit.
Early success in possible in Weeks 1 and 2, but each of the next
four opponents either have high-scoring offenses, stout secondaries
or both which may force the Niners to air it out in order to keep
up – which will not be a strength of theirs. After the bye,
there could be some solid performances over the next month by
the receiving corps, but starting with the Ravens in Week 12,
consistency may be a hard thing to find with this passing game
for the rest of the season. Thankfully, most of this does not
apply to Vernon Davis, who has a strong connection with Alex Smith
and should only be downgraded if Kaepernick becomes the starter
or when San Francisco faces the Ravens or Steelers (Week 15).
As gloomy as the outlook is for the passing game, there’s
significant value in the running game in my opinion. One of the
key points of the previous regime was building a power running
attack, so the offensive line’s ability to open holes will
be a strength of the offense. Shortly after his hire, new HC Jim
Harbaugh told Frank Gore that he intends to get his RB “out
in space” and “show the world (that Gore is) the best
back in the league”, which means Gore should be expected
to produce in a big way for his owners until he suffers an injury.
Because he is so important as a receiver, there is almost no matchup
that he should not hold his own against this season, meaning he
could produce RB1 numbers even against the likes of Pittsburgh
in the fantasy playoffs. Only his injury history keeps him from
being a sure-fire first-round pick in fantasy..