The Days Leading Up to the 2016 Louisiana Flood

The Office of Academic Affairs met with Dr. Barry Keim, LSU Professor and Louisiana
State Climatologist, to discuss his involvement with tracking the “no-name storm”
that progressed into the historic 2016 Louisiana Flood.

“When we look back, Tuesday, August 2 was the last weather map that did not show the
storm that hit us on the map,” Dr. Keim said. “The storm actually formed off the coast
of Florida on August 3 and was considered a broad area of low pressure, or a meteorological
trough which is called a tropical wave in the hurricane world.”

Meteorologists in the area were convinced it was a weak wave that was producing scattered
thunderstorms, and they were relatively convinced it was not going to advance into
anything more.

“On August 5, the Hurricane Center issued a notice pointing out the broad area of
low pressure,” Dr. Keim said. “At that time, they were giving it about a 20 percent
chance of turning into a tropical cyclone, which is enough reason to keep a close
watch on the system, but not enough to get too worked up about it.”

As the days continued, the storm drifted slowly westward along the Florida panhandle
and onto the Mississippi and Louisiana Gulf Coast line. The Hurricane Center monitored
the storm closely and realized that the storm was not an entirely tropical system
even though it had tropical elements to it.

“On Wednesday, August 10, the system moved inland and the Hurricane Center was no
longer concerned and responsibility for the storm was passed to the National Weather
Service,” Dr. Keim said. “The National Weather Service predicted five to eight inches
of rain on Friday in southeast Louisiana. The National Weather Service almost never
forecasts that much rain in a day and because of that forecast, we knew the potential
was there for something big to happen.”

As the days of August 11, 12 and 13 arrived, the unprecedented amount of rain continued
to fall like no meteorologist in the area had ever seen before.

“On August 11, the thunderstorms started kicking up and it rained throughout the evening
and into the next day,” Dr. Keim explained. “It rained continuously and flooding began
in some parts of the Baton Rouge region. It rained every waking minute of Friday,
which is something I don’t ever remember experiencing personally.”

By August 15, the “no-name storm” had been named a 1000-year rainfall event, claimed
the lives of thirteen Louisianians and flooded areas in more than 20 cities in Louisiana.

“As Louisiana State Climatologist, I am charged with the responsibility to provide
the correct and accurate information to the public and I take that responsibility
very seriously,” Dr. Keim said. “As rainfall totals were accumulating and water levels
were rising, I needed to get that information out to the public.”

National news stations such as the New York Times, PBS, NPR, and CNBC interviewed
with Dr. Keim immediately following the floods.

“I usually average 150-200 media interviews per year,” Dr. Keim mentioned. “In August
2016, I conducted about 40 media interviews in two weeks. I found myself going from
interview to interview it was a crazy time, but I had a responsibility to uphold for
my community going through this unprecedented natural disaster.”

Dr. Barry Keim serves as the Richard J. Russell Professor in the Department of Geography
& Anthropology at LSU. Dr. Keim has served as the State Climatologist since 2003.