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Monday, June 5, 2017

Saudi-UAE campaign to isolate Qatar and Iran puts Muslim nations in a bind

The Saudi-UAE campaign, building
on an increasingly vicious cyber and media war against Qatar, kicked into
high gear on Monday with the kingdom, the Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt breaking
off diplomatic relations and cutting air and sea traffic with Qatar and a
41-nation Saudi-led, Pakistani-commanded military alliance suspending Qatar’s
participation in operations in Yemen.

The four Arab countries announced their move in similar statements.
In its statement, Bahrain blamed Qatar’s “media incitement, support for
armed terrorist activities and funding linked to Iranian groups to carry out
sabotage and spreading chaos in Bahrain” for its decision.

Bahrain, a majority Shiite nation ruled by a Sunni minority,
has blamed Iran for a popular uprising in 2011 that it brutally squashed with
the help of Saudi troops and for subsequent intermittent protests and violence.

The
Saudi-UAE campaign is reminiscent of a similar
failed effort by Gulf states in 2014, but this time round sets the bar far
higher: it aims to force non-Arab states to take sides in a four-decades old
proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran that has escalated in recent years and
persuade the Trump administration to come down hard on Qatar because of its
refusal to join the anti-Iranian Saudi bandwagon and its ties to Islamist and
militant groups.

Qatar hosts the sprawling al-Udeid Air Base, the largest US
military facility in the Middle East, which is home to the U.S. military’s
Central Command and some 10,000 American troops.

Robert Gates, a former US defence secretary and director of
central intelligence, warned last week at a Foundation for the Defense of
Democracies gathering on Qatar and the Brotherhood that Qatar risked losing its
hosting of US forces if it failed to revise its policies. “The United States
military doesn’t have any irreplaceable facility,” Mr. Gates said.

The two men were speaking as the media and cyberwar erupted
with Qatari claims that several of its media websites had been hacked with a
fake report attributing comments to Qatari emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani
that were in line with the Gulf state’s policy but that Qatar says he did make.
The US
Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) is helping Qatar investigate the
alleged hack.

In a leaked email,
UAE ambassador to the United States Yousef Al-Otaiba told Mr. Gates on the eve
of his appearance at the Foundation gathering that UAE Deputy Crown Prince
Mohammed bin Zayed "MBZ sends his best from Abu Dhabi" and "he
says 'give them hell tomorrow'." Mr. Al-Otaiba was responding to an email
in which Mr. Gates said that his appearance gave him a chance “to put some
folks on notice.”

The rupture in diplomatic relations and military suspension
like the media campaign ignored Qatar’s assertion that its websites had been
hacked and treat the report as accurate.

US
Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, speaking on the side line of a bilateral
meeting with Australian officials in Sydney that was also attended by Defence
Secretary James Mattis, appeared to express implicit support for the
Saudi-UAE-led move. "I think what we're witnessing is a growing list of
some irritants in the region that have been there for some time. And obviously
they have now bubbled up to a level that countries decided they needed to take
action in an effort to have those differences addressed," Mr. Tillerson
said.

Non-Arab Muslim nations, insisting that their commitment
was to protect the holy cities of Mecca and Medina and to counter political
violence, were equally hesitant of being sucked into the kingdom's all but
military confrontation with Iran.

Monday’s rupture in Arab diplomatic relations with Qatar
and military alliance suspension raises the stakes for many non-Arab Muslim
nations. It threatens to jeopardize their relations with Qatar, a major gas
supplier and economic and commercial partner, and force them to choose between
Saudi Arabia and Iran.

"There are only a few countries that we have
elevated our relationship with (to the level of having an) HLC signed. And now,
our relationship has reached a level that we can ink an HLC with Qatar,
hopefully," Mr. Hishammuddin said.

Responding to the rupture in diplomatic relations and the
military suspension, sources close to the Malaysian foreign ministry said that
the government was advising its agencies to remain neutral in the dispute with
Qatar. Some sources cautioned however that the defence and interior ministries
may adopt a more independent approach.

Civil
servants in the defence ministry expressed concern when Mr. Hishammuddin last
year agreed to let 300 Malaysian paratroopers participate in a military exercise
organized by the Saudi alliance. Critics
in the ministry were further taken aback when Mr. Hishammuddin obliged them
to endorse Saudi funding for the King Salman Centre for Moderation (KSCM).

The centre, under the auspices of the ministry’s think
tank, the Malaysian Institute of Defence and Security (MIDAS), seeks to counter
jihadist messaging in Southeast Asia. An internal ministry memo said MIDAS had
a “strategic interest to be collaborating with various institutions
internationally particularly from Saudi Arabia.”

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About Me

James M DorseyWelcome to The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccer by James M. Dorsey, a senior fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. Soccer in the Middle East and North Africa is played as much on as off the pitch. Stadiums are a symbol of the battle for political freedom; economic opportunity; ethnic, religious and national identity; and gender rights. Alongside the mosque, the stadium was until the Arab revolt erupted in late 2010 the only alternative public space for venting pent-up anger and frustration. It was the training ground in countries like Egypt and Tunisia where militant fans prepared for a day in which their organization and street battle experience would serve them in the showdown with autocratic rulers. Soccer has its own unique thrill – a high-stakes game of cat and mouse between militants and security forces and a struggle for a trophy grander than the FIFA World Cup: the future of a region. This blog explores the role of soccer at a time of transition from autocratic rule to a more open society. It also features James’s daily political comment on the region’s developments. Contact: incoherentblog@gmail.comView my complete profile