The revolts in Al Hoceima (with a population of 600,000 Berber people in the North of Morocco) awakened seven months ago, with the unjust death of a humble Rif fisherman (Mouhcine Fikri) who tried to protect his merchandise confiscated by the police. But the altercations with authority have been continuous and all have been reflected in the demands made in the protests of the Rif: social and economic improvements in the region and political response to abuses of the law.

“Our demands are clear: social, economic and cultural. [In the Rif] there is a policy of marginalization, discrimination and systematic violation of human rights. Our movement arose to say enough already. We want our children to have health care, that our girls receive an education in classrooms of 25 colleagues and not 50, as now. We want the female to grow and live in gender equality. We want the abolition of the decree of 1958 by which Alhucemas is considered a militarized zone. People want colleges and a specialized hospital to deal with cancer, since in the Rif we have the highest index of the country in cases of cancer “, explained in February the” hero “of the Rif Movement.

The protests were multitudinous from May 12, when the Rif raised the voice “We are all Zafzafi” demanding an economic change. Naser Zafzafi, from claimant to representative of the movement in the Rif, is now persecuted by the law condemned by the political voice of the religious since he interrupted in a sermon where the protest movement was criticized for instigating the political-social schism. The Ministry of Islamic Affairs then encouraged the imams to denounce Naser Zafzafi, thus becoming an outlaw that undermines the stability of Morocco and the religious order by encouraging young people not to be silent despite government repression ( Which has been the key trigger of the main altercations in the country). Since then, 37 arrests have been reported, according to human rights associations (with Naser Zafzafi’s arrest Monday) and there are still clashes against the police, while extreme security and harassment in the military is excused with allusions to foreign influences and separatism.

VARIABLES OF THE DISSTABILIZATION:

Political / social fracture

In Alhucemas, the Party Authenticity and Modernity (whose political leader leads there and is native of the zone) managed to defeat the Islamist Party of Justice and Development, nevertheless, its was defeated in the legislative elections. However, the biggest problem is the social and political divide in the Rif area, which do not find political representation in power, which they have seen in a sectarian and corrupt continuity for years. “The parties need to connect with the grassroots. The new political landscape has been created through an elite, former militants of the left, disconnected from their bases.” That makes everything fragile, “explains Mohatar Mohatar, an expert Politician of the Rif [2].

Celebration of the disaster of Annual-hero rifeño (Abdelkrim)

The protests coincide with the proximity of the celebration in the Rif of the Spanish defeat in the Annual Disaster and the ovation to who was the hero in the Rif in 1921, Abdlekrim. In July, another social concentration of high level is expected for this celebration and for the protagonism of the protests, a way of linking the Movement with the heroic periods of the north of Morocco.

Social repression and militarization

Protestants demand the annulment of the decree of 1958 that declares the zone of Al Hoceima a militarized area after the outbreak of a rebellion, what allowed the military intervention for security question; Since then, according to the claimants, the security forces have committed numerous violations against Human Rights. Since 12 of May, 37 people have been arrested, explains a rifeño: “This is happening at the gates of Europe. It is not only that they have detained peaceful people, but the way in which they have been arrested, forcibly entering their workplaces and homes. Mohamed Jelloul, who spent five years in jail after the protests of the Arab Spring in Alhucemas and left only a month ago, was arrested in a restaurant. Nasser has had to flee and other people have also fled. It is as if instead of a peaceful Movement this is the FARC “[3]. In fact, it is the second time, since 2005, that Morocco has moved the army to implement social order, despite the fact that the protests have been developed without incident.

Radicalization and disruption of security

Nevertheless, there is a latent fear of the government to the expansion of the protests until becoming an insurgency or a more radical movement that can destabilize the country and awake the terrorism or the armed violence; The high percentage of radicals (many ex-combatants or followers of radical ideologies such as those of Daesh and Al Qaeda), borders so permeable and affected by the irregular flow of people and the impact of neighboring armed conflicts are sufficient factors for the government to see any movement of protest or schism as a catalyst for disaster.

Political / religious delegitimization of the Movement: association with separatism and foreign interference

“We are not separatists. We have legitimate demands “, justifies the leader of the Movement [4]. The government accuses the Movement of foreign interference by providing economic aid, according to Protestants, is supported by a campaign of delegitimation, since that money that reaches the area of ​​the Rif corresponds to the economic contributions ceded by relatives working in abroad.

Economic crisis: oil and gas and lack of opportunities

Morocco is suffering the blow of the oil crisis, especially in those two sectors on which its economy (oil and gas) depends. The Rif area has been an area that has shown less access to basic needs, such as education and health, also affected by cross-border smuggling and dependence on cannabis cultivation, which is increasingly being pursued by the government.

It is important to note, however, that this socio-political divide is seen not only in Morocco but also in Algeria and more timidly in Tunisia, which is fearful of the protests taking place in neighboring countries, as the population feels increasingly apathetic to participate in the electoral processes and a greater detachment of political representation, critical of its abuses of power.With a vulnerable regional scenario, the decomposition of Morocco and Algeria would be the greatest disaster for the stability of both the African continent and the southern European Southern flank, a free door for the domination of insurgent groups and armed militias in the region (as we are seeing in the Sahel, Libya and already threatening Egypt).