The Republican Governors' Association has planned a negative blitz against Democratic gubernatorial nominee Christine Gregoire in a bid to end the 20-year Democratic dominance of Washington's statehouse.

The TV campaign was set to begin Oct. 2. An announcement came Friday that the ads were "going up today," but none was seen.

The GOP effort has seemed hesitant and slow to start, while last year's negative campaign in Kentucky was a case of political "Shock and Awe."

"I wonder whether they are reconsidering whether to spend money here or put it into Montana," said Frank Greer, Gregoire's strategist.

Republicans went into this year's gubernatorial race with their highest hopes in years. Former state Sen. Dino Rossi was their consensus choice; primary wars were avoided. Rossi had wowed colleagues and Olympia lobbyists as a budget writer.

But with prospects increasingly uncertain, GOP leaders in the U.S. Senate and statehouses across the United States may heed lyrics from a 1960s hit song: "Let's hang on to what we've got!"

Attorney General Gregoire has built a double-digit lead over Rossi in four recent surveys.

A Survey USA poll for KING/5 gave Gregoire a 51-41 lead, after the same poll had earlier indicated a tight race.

Republican state Chairman Chris Vance put out a news release denouncing Survey USA findings. Other polls, however, say the same.

An unpublished statewide poll by Evans/McDonough, completed Sept. 30, came up with an almost identical 51-40 Gregoire lead. The Seattle firm is polling for foes of a gambling initiative on the November ballot.

Working for Gregoire, in a survey finished Oct. 3, Democratic poll taker Mark Mellman found the attorney general ahead by a 51-39 ratio.

Another top Democratic pulse taker, Celinda Lake, found Gregoire with a 52-38 lead. Gregoire was running far stronger than another Lake client, Deborah Senn, the Democratic nominee to replace Gregoire as the state's chief legal officer.

At Rossi headquarters, spokeswoman Mary Lane described her candidate as "a couple points behind," citing an Oct. 4-6 survey by Atlanta-based Strategic Vision, and characterized the race as a "dead heat."

But the evidence is that Republicans' once-promising state ticket seems to be (using a phrase made famous by George H.W. Bush) in "deep doo-doo."

"Whoever is the conservationist candidate is my choice," Williams said by phone last week. "In the presidential race, that would appear to be Mr. Kerry."

Williams has yet to make up her mind about the Gregoire-Rossi race, saying: "That's a toughie. I should support the woman. It's a tossup."

Similarly, a major Seattle business figure and philanthropist -- who asked not to be identified -- said he is casting his first Democratic votes for president and Senate since supporting Lyndon Johnson and Henry Jackson 40 years ago. He, too, is undecided about the governor's race.

He promises help for Washington's neglected state parks. He boasts of being a board member of The Nature Conservancy and told a debate audience: "I've even received the Good Green Deeds award twice from the Conservation Voters."

But the Republican nominee compiled a pro-environment score of only 36 percent with Washington Conservation Voters' tabulation of votes in the Legislature. He voted to let counties with populations under 75,000 opt out of Growth Management Act requirements. He backed a resolution that called for return of protected habitat in the Hanford Reach National Monument to agricultural and development use.

Rossi has pulled out of a debate with Gregoire at Wednesday's Wake Up for Your Environment breakfast, a bipartisan annual event put on by Washington Conservation Voters. "Clearly, they're very partisan against Dino and would not have given him a fair hearing," Lane said.

Huh? Rossi had earlier accepted the breakfast debate, even after the conservation voters group endorsed Gregoire.

Gregoire was sharp, composed and competent as she debated Rossi before a pro-GOP Association of Washington Business audience, just before the group backed her Republican opponent.

Alas, Republicans in this corner of the country seem unable and/or unwilling to expand their base. They haven't elected a governor in Washington since 1980 and in Oregon since 1982.

Watch your TV screens for the tip-off: Republican governors' hopes for Dino can be measured in the volume of their TV spots. The same dollars could buy a lot of TV time in Montana, where a Democratic rancher, Brian Schweitzer, threatens Republicans' 16-year hold on the governorship.