moody7277 wrote:I'm already on record as Absorber and Vengeful Sibling, so having a third part to my role seems a little excessive, no?

This resonates with me - I myself am a Pope and have a Sensor, whereas as far as I can remember, jimbob and Suzaku only have one claim to their name.

I can understand why this came up, but I feel that I should point out that this sort of logic doesn't hold up to scruitny - adnapemit flipped with only one visible part to her role, as did ConMan, and Carlington (I think), neither of whom claimed a secondary ability. Also, I don't know if it's described as three parts, but Madge appears to have three aspects to her role (her win con, and her two different abilities), so there doesn't appear to be a two-aspect cap either. I guess it's possible that both ConMan and Carlington had secret aspects with no visible affect, however, I have only one aspect to my role (treating the voting/doctor/roleblock thing as one wrapped up as Mediator) that I know of, so FMPOV, I have no particular reason to suspect Suzaku or anyone else on this point.

I'm working on the assumption that adnapemit had either an unblockable kill or an unblockable recruit, as I can't think of another circumstance where my roleblock failing makes sense - in general roleblocks prevent ANYTHING scum can throw at any player, including the user of the roleblock, except where the ability is explicitly listed as unblockable (ignoring other roleblocks and redirections).

@Sabrar: Have any deceased players had an ability of which they were aware, and which you did not reveal to us on their flip? (not entirely sure if I can get an answer to that question, but it's worth trying it to see if a Yakuza!adnapemit is possible)

Sabrar has already said that hidden mechanics don't show up on a flip. I'm guessing that this Yakuza role would fall in that category. We only found out about it at this point because we did everything right D5 and yet we're still going. Carlington and ConMan's deals are most likely for after action spoiler reading.

ninja'd with stuff that doesn't really affect my opinion.

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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.

moody7277 wrote:Sabrar has already said that hidden mechanics don't show up on a flip. I'm guessing that this Yakuza role would fall in that category. We only found out about it at this point because we did everything right D5 and yet we're still going. Carlington and ConMan's deals are most likely for after action spoiler reading.

ninja'd with stuff that doesn't really affect my opinion.

The thing is, AFAICT, a Yakuza has to be aware of their Yakuza ability, since they seem specifically to sacrifice themselves on purpose. I believe that if adnapemit had been Yakuza, we would know by now.

So I'm very much warming to my SIlversmith idea, which points to Suzaku or jimbob FMPOV, I think.

FWIW I don't think I have three aspects. I have two aspects and a win condition, just like, say, jimbob has two aspects and a win condition (being town in his case). It just "seems" like I have three aspects because my win condition is a bit weird.

As a "neutral" opinion, if I were a silversmith I don't think I'd claim it at all. Or I'd do a gambit, saying I'm silversmith, and if I turn scum I will claim as much and submit myself to the lynch - hopefully having the effect of my alignment not being changed, and if it is changed, I'd come out and say so, hopefully making similar promises I make in the future more credible.

If you claim, town is suspicious of you and either wastes a lynch/kill on you (if you stay town) or kills you and hurts your faction (if you turn scum), or at the very least is distracted by your alignment which is bad for town!you and worse for scum!you.

If you don't claim, town doesn't waste time being suspicious of or lynching town!you, and they don't destroy your win condition by lynching scum!you.

The only situation in which the claim is good for town means the claim is bad for then-you.

Suzaku wrote:This rules out Yakuza!adnap, so it's either Silversmith or some other bastardry.

I agree. It also however suggests that either my roleblock failed (and I have no idea why it would since I didn't vote), or that the faction kill is unblockable, which feels a but extreme, since presumably if adnapemit could make it unblockable, it would show up in her role. Hopefully the unblockableness was a one-off, as otherwise my power becomes pointless.

Suzaku wrote:This rules out Yakuza!adnap, so it's either Silversmith or some other bastardry.

I agree. It also however suggests that either my roleblock failed (and I have no idea why it would since I didn't vote), or that the faction kill is unblockable, which feels a but extreme, since presumably if adnapemit could make it unblockable, it would show up in her role. Hopefully the unblockableness was a one-off, as otherwise my power becomes pointless.

Part of that seems like a possibly-answerable question, though.

@Sabrar: In general, is there any possible sequence of events that could have taken place last night in which the mafia kill was successfully blocked?

(trying to be as pedanticly vague as possible to get the highest chance of an answer )

Uh oh. I was taking a quick look through the roles people have claimed just to ensure that it all checks out and that nobody's role could result in them becoming mafia or otherwise give us clues as to what is going on, and I spotted this about the Prophet role:

According to Mafia Universe, if the game doesn't end the day the Prophet predicted, the Prophet dies. That means that we are potentially at MYLO, I think, so be careful with your votes!

Ninja'ed by Jack. Can't hurt to ask it, but I suspect you won't get an answer. Then again, I'm surprised we got an answer to the previous question.

For what it's worth, my role is linked through mafiascum: http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Oracle and nothing in my PM says I die if it goes wrong. That said, my death could happen, I haven't really thought about that tbh as I don't really care. I'd prefer to live even if I lose because it will mean threats I make in trying to play the game to achieve that win are more credible, for example.

Just popping in for a quick post, I think we need to work out who has only claimed one role facet, since it seems everyone has two facets and a win condition. That will help us nail down the silversmith (either through who hasn't claimed yet, or whose claim doesn't stand up, whose claims are both iron clad, etc).

Sabrar wrote:matt96 is dead. He was a Suicidal CommunistMagistrate, Independent. He has fulfilled his win-condition.adnapemit is dead. She was a Paralyzer, aligned with the Mafia.

I'm only doing the dead, 'cause I should be doing the housework. But we have two dead townies with only one facet (ConMan, Carlington) and one dead scum with only one (adnapemit). We also have matt with three.

So I do not believe that number of facets is significant in determining who could be a Silversmith.

I have only one - super backup, but I have, of course, inherited Silencer, Locksmith, and Dreamer.

Okay, so wrt me I think Madge and Suzaku are convinced (or at least have evidence for) my being an Absorber, and generalz's flip should prove the Vengeful Sibliing part. I'm convinced of Suzaku's backup role because D3 and N3 when I was unable to PM, the word used was "silenced", which was (dead) ConMan's role. So, we accept Suzaku's list, and FMPOV either Jack or jimbob are scum, or (less likely IMO) we have scum!Suzaku. Paranoia (or dramatic tropes) would say that because jimbob has been so helpful during the game, of course he'd be the last scum now, but that's not enough to hang a hat on.

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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.

We're a reasonable period into the day so everybody's had a fair chance to post some content. Let's take a look at what people have said on this game day. I'm not going to bother looking at Madge for my previously listed reasons. I'm also going to ignore posts from before D6, because I expect that any alignment-changing/recruitment shenanigans took place last night.

Post summary:

Spoiler:

JackHK: Opens with a confused-sounding post. Looks back on all known information up to now to see who could be scum. Thinks someone was turned. Second post responds to Suzaku's claim. Oddly misses that Suzaku's claim was due to generalz's power - suggests not previously paying all that much attention, but reviews it in his next post after clarification, and rules out Madge as scum. Asks for night action summaries from everyone. Places me at the top of the list of possible recruits due to interacting with adnapemit. Would definitely have killed me in adnapemit's position. No reasoning listed in that post. Thinks Madge should side with Town. Starts looking at possible roles that could explain a town->scum alignment change. Mentions wanting to lynch me again because of me targeting adnapemit. Considers Silversmith most likely explanation for change in alignment. Suggests either I lied or my block failed. Decides to revisit who adnapemit might have killed. Doesn't think Madge was scum from beginning due to game balance. Can't No Lynch as Town today. Responds to my question as to who people would have targeted with suggesting me as the target. [Note that he hadn't done any posts about who adnapemit might have killed between deciding to revisit this and responding to my questions]. Thinks I would have been recruited due to helping town and being below suspicion, and killed due to my ability to roleblock. Thinks that my roleblock might not have prevented silversmith affect and therefore I was the target. Thinks Silversmith unlikely to be third aspect, so more likely for me or Suzaku. Puts me as most likely silversmith, because I interacted with adnapemit.

moody: Post summary of actions. Rules out lying!me and lying!Madge as to reasons why his plan yesterday didn't succeed, based on previous behaviour. Clarifies his win condition. Thinks third aspect would be excessive. Thinks that Yakuza role would be hidden mechanic and not show up on flip. Thinks Suzaku less likely scum than me or Jack.

Suzaku: Claims that one of {me, moody, Jack} is scum using generalz's power. Posts action summary for Jack. Tries to draw up some conclusions from what he knows, acknowledging that a lot of what he said was a rehash of what had already been said. Concludes in that that Madge was not scum, and that someone was recruited D5/N5. Later contradicts himself and thinks Madge being scum would be the easiest answer...! Suggests some strategies to try to narrow down options. Thinks adnapemit would have recruited Jack as behaviour change would be less noticeable. Leans towards moody (confirmed town) as likely kill target over me (active, nasty power), due to my voting/power restriction. Rules out yakuza, based on Sabrar post. Points out that silversmith cannot be sensibly restricted to person with only one facet due to different numbers of facets for each player.

Conclusions:

JackHK - I have to be careful about a case of OMGUS here, but I really don't like how much JackHK seems to have latched onto me early on in the day, and barely looked anywhere else. I appreciate his searching for roles, though of course, a Silversmith who knows that they are one, may well point it out to try to get townie points, so neutral. I am concerned by him saying he would revisit who adnapemit might have killed, but then does not do so until he responded to the question, three posts later. Suggesting things to discuss but then not doing so doesn't seem particularly townie to me. His reason for me being his a recruit target doesn't seem particularly well thought through, due to the fact that I don't think anybody could be above suspicion based on past behaviour, due to the fact that Town must know about a recruit, and therefore past behaviour becomes irrelevant. His suggestion that my roleblock would not have prevented silversmith!me being recruited seems incomplete (see my question below). Also, I don't understand why me targeting adnapemit makes it more likely that I was recruited than anyone else. Overall, to me he is either scum, who's decided to focus on one player backed up by a single theory, or tunnelling town.

@Jack - 1) If my roleblock couldn't prevent silversmith!me being recruited, why could it prevent other players being recruited in the same way, if they were silversmiths? 2) I assume when you say me interacting with adnapemit, you mean my targeting her with a roleblock? If so, could you clarify why you think me blocking her makes it more likely that I am scum (I think I can guess, but I won't you to restate it explicitly).

moody - the quietest player this game day by some margin, and what he has said has included very little in the way of thoughts on other players. At the same time, I can't see anything particularly scummy in what he has said. So, a bit of a case of lurking, which makes it hard for me to draw any conclusions. I worry slightly that he might be scum trying to keep under the radar, but this based purely on low content, and nothing else. (FWIW, I'm convinced that everybody is who they say they are with their abilities, with the exception of an unrevealed Silversmith or similar win-condition changing role).

@moody - you never answered my questions on who you think adnapemit would kill or recruit. Would you mind answering, please.

Suzaku - posted one big post, and a few smaller posts aside from that, and most have some useful content in them, including thoughts on different players/likely situations. However, he does appear to make a mistake in both confirming Madge as town and then later suggesting she could be scum, which seems a little weird. He also (admittedly self-acknowledged) parrot what Jack said a bit. Answered my question with reasonable explanations as to why he thinks what he does, which certainly make sense to me. I agree with his point about us not being able to assume the number of aspects to a player's role given that different people have flipped with different numbers of aspects. Finally, as I said earlier, I felt that he was the most likely target for a kill/recruit, due to the threat of his ability to any other recruited player, so I think I have to put him as marginally suspicious.

Ordered town to scum list: moody, Suzaku, JackHK.

As always, I'd like to avoid voting, so that I can use my roleblock or doctor ability tonight, as a) it might prevent a kill, and b) might provide us some information. I will be voting if needed to break a tie, or to protect myself, but assuming I don't have to, I plan on roleblocking someone. Roleblocking would prevent the kill if successful, and point out the scum, at least to me, so that people can choose between two people tomorrow if we mislynch (me and my target), and thus avoiding a three-way stand-off. It also likely confirms someone as non-mafia if the block fails. The doctor ability confirms someone as Town, if successful, and makes the choice between me and whoever else is still alive apart from the target. The problem with the doctor, is that I can't self-target and therefore scum can just kill me safely, nor does it provide information on a failure. Does anybody have a reason for me to use a doctor tonight instead of a roleblock?

Of course, we cannot be 100% certain about the scumminess of my target if there is no kill, because scum could attempt to confuse us by withholding the kill. Therefore, I have a suggestion for Madge's question tonight: "on what nights did mafia attempt a faction kill (including N6)?" A result of the kill being withheld tonight means my result can be ignored, and similarly, if a kill is attempted, but fails, my result can be trusted to be useful. It might also help clear up N5 a bit more.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:1) If my roleblock couldn't prevent silversmith!me being recruited, why could it prevent other players being recruited in the same way, if they were silversmiths?

That's actually a very good point, now that I think about it. That probably make s that particular line of logic moot, then.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:2) I assume when you say me interacting with adnapemit, you mean my targeting her with a roleblock? If so, could you clarify why you think me blocking her makes it more likely that I am scum (I think I can guess, but I won't you to restate it explicitly).

Because we don't know what role caused this to happen (and because my knowledge of obscure roles and what they can do is pitiful), my assumption is that there are more possibilities leading to you being turned than there are for, say, myself or moody, who did nothing last night. That is to say, the fact that you targeted adnapemit last night means that I would imagine there are roles which could be in the game that would make you turn scum that would door make someone doing nothing turn scum.

(The reverse possibility, that someone could have turned scum because they did nothing, of course exists, and there is also the possibility that either myself or moody is lying about having not done anything last night, but...)

I think most of my suspicion stems from the fact that you are the obvious target for either a lynch or a recruit, just cause you've been helping town for the whole game so extensively and well.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@moody - you never answered my questions on who you think adnapemit would kill or recruit. Would you mind answering, please.

Madge-- no point in that she's independent and possibly sympathetic if her guess doesn't work outmoody7277-- also independent, but very pro-town. only thing is, my meta sucks in terms of looking somewhat scummy even when I don't want to.JackHK-- been somewhat quiet, had his one big contribution N2(?) with excercising his pope abilitySuzaku-- looked townie all game, abilities have grown as the game goes on, might be dangerousjimbob-- has the most dangerous power to scum, provided he knows who they are and doesn't vote. might also be ironic that most useful to town should be the last scum

Was based off the list on the OP, but it also coincidentally sorted into least -> most likely.

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Tigerlion wrote:Well, I imagine as the game progresses, various people will be getting moody.

Thank you Jack and moody for responding to my questions. I'll try to post my thoughts on those responses a little later.

For now, a quick couple of questions for the mod that might hopefully help us (or might just confuse us more):

What is the Mafia faction ability?If it is a night kill/recruit/other similar targeted ability, can it be prevented by a roleblocker?

It occurred to me that Sabrar said that a player's known abilities show up, but he said nothing about the faction ability, so if it's something more exotic, we have to start considering more options. Also, if the ability can't be roleblocked (e.g. because it isn't used by a specific individual or something), it would help explain last night's madness a bit more as well. On the other hand, if it can be roleblocked, I'm inclined to think that we actually have something else going on, and that adnapemit was not actually the cause of us gaining a new scum (e.g. some other player's condition triggered, and not because adnapemit targeted someone with something). The reason I'm discounting Silversmith in the event of roleblocking working is because the Silversmith role on Mafia Universe says that a player switches to mafia "if they are ever killed in the night by the mafia", not "if they are ever targeted for the night kill by mafia", which suggests that the kill would have had to otherwise be successful, and I know I roleblocked adnapemit, which means the kill should not have been successful.

Jimbob, everything you have said makes sense (although I doubt that we will get answers for your two questions!).I hope you can understand from my arguments why I still place at the the top of of my scum list, but you are certainly much closer to moody on the list than before. Given that we've got only a day till day end, I think I should out a vote down.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:If it is a night kill/recruit/other similar targeted ability, can it be prevented by a roleblocker?

A normal roleblock would prevent it, assuming the Mafia-player does not have an individual ability to make it unblockable.

I wonder if it's possible that adnapemit had a one-shot unblockabke night kill.. Would it be overpowered? It's just that I'm suspicious about the "currently" in that answer...

Urrgghh... by that same logic it could have been a one-shot factional Yakuza power or similar. I wouldn't say that a factional unblockable kill or recruit is necessarily overpowered, but at least on the recruit side, I'd think there'd have to be some limitation on its use.

As a factional ability, have Mafia ever had access to anything other than a regular, blockable night kill?

Really doubt I'll get an answer, but it's worth a shot. If the answer comes back as "No", I'm going to be so confused, because I cannot see how any role could bypass my roleblocking, unless explicitly listed as unblockable, and adnapemit did not reveal an unblockable ability, meaning that the cause for our would have had to be unrelated to whatever adnapemit did.

I flipped through all the role-changing category roles on Mafia Universe, and I found a few alternatives that could fit the bill, if we didn't have a silversmith, although most of them don't explain why adnapemit died, unless she could self-kill or something:

Converter - Basically a Yakuza that doesn't die, so seems unlikely.Judas - Town who converts to mafia if they died. Basically a variation of a Silversmith, but does list that this can often be a hidden role.Possessor - Basically, an overpowered Yakuza.Sasquatch - Becomes scum in the event of a No Lynch. Possibly could have been twerked to be e.g. the night kill failed, since our No Lynch was some time ago...?Turncoat - A silversmith who becomes a Traitor instead of mafia. Again provision is made for this to be a hidden aspect.Underdog - Converts to a team that is about to lose at the last possible moment.

Of these, Converter and Possessor can be ruled out the same as Yakuza (assuming they're not factional abilities). Sasquatch feels like it would be too twisted from its original role. Turncoat and Judas are basically Silversmith under a different name, I think, at least from our points of view now, so suffer from the "how did adnapemit get past my roleblock" issue. Underdog is interesting, as it fits our criteria perfectly, except for the question of "why did adnapemit die". Regardless, I don't think any of this really helps us identify scum, since all I think it does is point out that I can't find anything that would suggest that me targeting Mafia would cause my alignment to change. Time to look at other Mafia sites, I suspect.

I don't like Jack's vote on me. It just feels like a case of, "I've come up with an idea in my head, and I'm going to stick with it despite there being basically no evidence to back it up". In fact, he even acknowledges that his logic could be flipped on its head just as easily, but sticks with his previous point of view.

@Jack - in your list of scum to town, why did you have moody above Suzaku?

Tried comparing Jack's overall posting style from earlier in the game to D6. Nothing particularly strong stands out, but a couple of things seem slightly different: specifically, he posted quite a lot more in the early part of D6 compared to most previous days, and more in those posts as well. Unfortunately, I don't know if this is normal for him, (i.e. his posting picks up now that he has more stuff to speculate on and fewer others to do the talking), so I can't tell if it's actually scum!Jack trying to be active so as to look nice and helpful townie, or normal!Jack.

I disagree with moody, re. the relative power of Suzaku's ability compared to mine, but I guess that's mostly a matter of opinion, given that I am pretty certain that scum were somehow able to bypass my roleblock, and presumably knew they could, but that it was likely a one-off, based on Sabrar's responses.

Like you, I doubt we'll get an answer to that question, (although I was wrong before so maybe will be again! ) but it would be very helpful to know to answer to, of course.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:@Jack - in your list of scum to town, why did you have moody above Suzaku?

Reading over that again, I'm surprised how little I can think of to back that up. I think it must have entirely been gut reaction, since going by a little meta analysis, Im more inclined to suspect Suzaku has some sort of role that hasn't been shared yet, given that they have only disclosed one power,while moody has shown several. Looking again, I might order them differently.

Part of me voting for you was simple worry that the deadline is fast approaching, and we don't really have much to go on. I was hoping I could see how people reacted and have time to analyse.

Regarding any changes in my play, some of it what you said (fewer players, more stuff to talk about), but I would add 2 things :

1) I was on tour in Italy for 10 days recently, and found it hats to contribute much as I was very busy. 2) The flurry of activity at the start of the day was me basically freaking out. I was trying to work out what could have happened (I may have spent rather too much time on mafia universe ). Also, I find this kind of situation (less people, lots of intrigue) much more exciting, and easier to post about.

Dang. Oh well. In a crazy game like this, I'm going to assume scum had a one-off potentially-crazy unblockable night ability or something that caused a recruit, either directly (i.e. Yakuza-like) or indirectly (i.e. Silversmith-like), as a factional ability, as that explains everything I know.

Jack's response on his posting behaviour was largely what I expected, and to be fair, perfectly reasonable. I didn't mention this, but for clarity I basically ignored the 1-2 game days when you posted almost nothing, as you had said you were doing stuff.

I've looked quickly over Suzaku's and moody's posts as well to compare against the early game. Suzaku's feel basically the same, so is probably good for him. Moody is a lot quieter than he was earlier in the game, which isn't something I'd expect. Despite having played numerous times with him, I still haven't got a good feel for his meta, but I can't help but feel that he usually posts more content as the game progresses, not less... That being said, I don't think it was in isolation (his D4 and D5 content is not great either). However, if I wanted to point at the player whose posting pattern has changed the most this game day, it would have to be him, I think.

Current scum to non-scum list: Jack, moody, Suzaku, Madge; but it isn't really clear cut apart from Madge. If Madge is scum, I will bow down and worship her as the mighty scum overlord of scumminess!

I'll be around for quick posts for most of tomorrow, but may be too busy at deadline to post/vote/unvote as the case may be. If I am going to vote, it will likely be around 4-5pm UTC. I'd appreciate it if people have made the situation clear before then such that I don't have to vote and lose my ability (at that point, I think Suzaku and Madge will both be in bed, so hopefully they'll have both posted votes in one direction). If it helps with their decisions, my vote as things stand would likely go towards Jack, due to his tunnelling on me today, if I had to vote, but I wouldn't oppose a moody lynch either, due to lack of useful discussion from him today, and an apparent mild change in behaviour in the wrong direction.

In the hope of provoking some form of debate from at least Madge and Suzaku before they retire for the night without a vote (and therefore putting the lynch in the hands of effectively one player, moody, whom I don't particularly trust):

Vote JackHK

I'd really like to be able to remove this vote before the end of the day and use my ability, as I think this could generate some useful info, but unless I get a clear indication from others of their intent to vote, I don't see that I can.

jimbobmacdoodle wrote:In the hope of provoking some form of debate from at least Madge and Suzaku before they retire for the night without a vote (and therefore putting the lynch in the hands of effectively one player, moody, whom I don't particularly trust):

Vote JackHK

I'd really like to be able to remove this vote before the end of the day and use my ability, as I think this could generate some useful info, but unless I get a clear indication from others of their intent to vote, I don't see that I can.

Hopefully now they will be forced to vote, because of course a no lynch, as far as I know, is a definite loss for town.

JackHK wrote:Hopefully now they will be forced to vote, because of course a no lynch, as far as I know, is a definite loss for town.

Don't think it will be, for absolutely certainty, since we aren't at LYLO, but of course, Madge wouldn't be happy with us in that situation, so it would be Madge + scum versus two town (assuming successful kill of town, which isn't guaranteed), which would likely go in scum's favour.