OTTAWA - Prime Minister Stephen Harpers' Conservatives have surged to 40% in popular opinion and entered majority government territory, a new poll says. The poll, conducted exclusively by Ipsos-Reid for CanWest News Service and Global Television after the Harper government delivered its new budget, shows the Tories have opened up an 11-point lead nationally over Stephane Dion's Liberals.

"The big news is they hit the big four-oh," Pollster Darrell Bricker said of the Conservatives' numbers. "They've hit the magic number. When you get to 40 [per cent], you can start talking about forming a majority government."

CREDIT: Source: Ipsos Reid KAGAN McLEOD, NATIONAL POST

It's the first time Ipsos-Reid reported the Conservatives, who scored a minority victory 14 months ago, could win a majority.

Grit support plunged to 29% from 34% in a survey conducted a week earlier.

Moreover, the poll indicates the Conservatives have opened up a 10-point lead (43% to 33%) over the Liberals in Ontario, the crown jewel of Canadian politics with 106 seats. They also are locked in a virtual tie with them in Quebec, 26%-25% for the Liberals. Quebec has 75 federal seats.

"The compelling part of this is that they have actually tied the Grits in Quebec, and they've got a 10-point lead on them in Ontario. With that 10-point lead, they can clean up." Mr. Bricker said.

The poll put NDP support at 14%, up two points from the last poll.

The Green party slipped one point to seven per cent.

The healthy Tory numbers, which show them leading in every region of the country except Quebec, are bound to add fuel to already rampant election speculation.

All parties have said they don't want an election this spring, but many opposition MPs say they are convinced the election-ready Conservatives are looking for a reason to pull the plug on this Parliament.

And the Tories are doing little to discourage election talk.

The party sent out a new fundraising e-mail yesterday to supporters who had not responded to a recent appeal for election funds. It warned the party could still face an "unwanted" election if it is defeated on any of the pending budget votes.

"Last week, we sent you and other trusted supporters an urgent appeal. We didn't hear from you, so I wanted to remind you that you still have time to take action," Irving Gerstein, head of Conservative Fund Canada, wrote.

He urged supporters to make an on-line contribution of $200 or $100.

Mr. Bricker said Mr. Harper might be tempted to engineer an election, especially in light of Mr. Dion's inability to get traction as the party's new leader. But he says it would be a risky venture. "It's always a gamble," Mr. Bricker said of an election. "Things can look very different a month from now."

As an example, he cited Quebec Premier Jean Charest's increasingly tough uphill struggle to win Monday's election, despite being considered a safe bet when the campaign started.

Mr. Bricker said the budget played a role in the Conservatives' jump to 40% in national support from 36% in the firm's previous poll.

The survey of 1,000 adults, conducted Tuesday through Thursday, found Canadians are twice as likely to give the budget "two thumbs up" than "two thumbs down." The split was 24- 12. Half of those surveyed said it was neither good nor bad and opted to "symbolically shrug their shoulders."

The survey is considered accurate to within plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margin of error is larger within subgroups.

The poll found the Conservatives got the biggest post-budget boost in British Columbia, where their support rose 10 points to 44% since the last survey. However, the margin of error in that sampling is 8.3 per cent.

Conservative support in Alberta dropped seven points, but the party retained solid majority support in its Western stronghold, despite an eight-point gain to 24% for the Liberals.

A majority of Canadians, 59%, said they wanted their MP to vote in favour of the federal budget to avoid a spring election.

Aside from the Liberals' popular support now having entered a possible literal 'free fall' zone (e.g. multiple polls showing them at under 30% are virtually unknown up here), check out this beauty addresses your question directly:Dear Stephane: Be a manNational Post Editorial: Saturday, March 24, 2007

It's also worth noting that, as Canada moves to the political right & even in 'liberal' Toronto, the Post is rapidly gaining market share at the expense of both the red Star & the vile gay & feminist mouthpiece Globe & Mail.

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