Fantasy Football: There's some value in 'other' NFL quarterbacks

Conference championship day is always one of the highlights of the NFL schedule. Who can resist the desire to hunker down today with some nachos to see which teams earn their way to a Beyoncé concert?

It feels like an odd day, however, for I cannot recall a time when so many felt so strongly that the outcome of both games is preordained. The Patriots have hovered around a 9-point favorite since taking apart the Texans and the 49ers are favored on the road because Colin Kaepernick is the greatest thing since “Single Ladies.”

It isn't like this stands against all reason. New England has won 10 of its last 11 games and is helmed by Tom Brady, he of the five Super Bowl appearances and three gaudy rings. San Francisco put up 45 points last week to down the Packers, with Kaepernick passing for two TDs and rushing for two more.

If you have to go into a fantasy battle this weekend, those two QBs are the ones you immediately want to hitch onto. But is there really reason to believe their opponents will look as awful as all seem to think?

I say no, and believing that (whether it be right or wrong) could free up some cap space for those in salary-style contests.

The Falcons' Matt Ryan has two great wide receivers in Roddy White and Julio Jones with a Hall of Fame-caliber tight end in Tony Gonzalez. Ryan used the air attack last week to throw three touchdowns and showed poise in organizing a final drive that took less than half a minute and still got close enough for Matt Bryant to kick a 49-yard field goal that defeated the Seahawks.

This led everyone to speak of Ryan getting the proverbial monkey off his back after going 0-3 in playoff games to that point. (You see, if we say it is proverbial, then we can pretend we're not being hacks.) That primate may still have some hold, though, as Ryan threw two interceptions as well in that win. For his four-game playoff career, he has thrown six touchdowns and six picks.

Probably also worth nothing is the fact that the 49ers had the third-ranked defense overall this season (294.4 yards per game) and were ranked fourth against the pass (200.2).

Ryan has enough weapons that I do not think he makes for an awful pick, but I wouldn't let one game completely alter my view of him. See, I am of the belief that trends tell more than possibly aberrant single games, and that is why I believe more in the potential of the Ravens' Joe Flacco, even if fearfully so.

It has been endlessly stated that Flacco is the first quarterback to win a playoff game in his first five seasons. This inevitably leads to questions of “Joe Flacco? How did that happen?”

The fact would seem surprising if one only looked at Flacco's early numbers. As a rookie, he won his first playoff game while completing only 9 of 23 passes. He even went on to win another, but in three games finished with only one touchdown against three interceptions. He seemed made from the perfect Trent Dilfer mold that said don't mess up too much and the defense will cover for you.

Sophomore Flacco continued that trend, this time coming up with a victory (against the Patriots no less, EEK!) even though he completed just 4 of 10 throws for all of 34 yards, no touchdowns and an interception.

His junior season saw a flash of greatness, completing 25 of 34 passes for 265 yards and two scores in a 30-7 drubbing of the Chiefs. It also saw a pedestrian outing of 16 of 30 for 125 yards, one TD and one INT in a loss to the Steelers.

In hindsight, this looks like one of those turning points where his career could have gone in either direction. Since Flacco is that mythical first man to win a postseason contest in his first five seasons, it kind of tips off which way he went.

Until that point, the Ravens QB was 4-3 in the playoffs and had thrown only four touchdowns against seven interceptions in those games. Since then, he is 3-1 with nine touchdowns and only one pick.

The only loss in there was to the Patriots two years ago, but even then he threw for 306 yards and a couple of scores. In the current postseason, all Flacco has done is throw for 613 yards, five touchdowns and no interceptions.

Probably also worth nothing is the fact that the Patriots had the 25th-ranked defense overall this season (373.2 yards per game) and were ranked 29th against the pass (271.4).

But they did get better in the latter part of the regular season. At least that is what I am going to tell myself as I hope they can be Destiny's Child.