The magnitude of technological change between today and 2030 will be the same as between 1915 and the present day, according to a scenario planning review conducted by Atlantic Lottery Corporation.

Speaking to attendees at ICE Totally Gaming 2015, Phil Holmes, vice-president of transformation at the firm, described how the Canadian lottery company chose to look 15 years ahead in an attempt to visualise whether lottery games will still be relevant, and found a scenario whereby draw-based games will be replaced by gaming based upon personal data.

In introducing its '2030 Vision', which had the headline of ‘what will the lottery and gaming industry look like in 2030…and how might a gaming company respond to remain relevant?’ Atlantic adopted a scenario planning framework that would give it the tools to imagine the future.

It considered environmental analysis of the industry, forecasting of the speed and trajectory of changes and its own organisational strategy. It also took into account what it knows will happen in the next 18 months and what it can confidently predict will occur in the mid-term over the next three to five years.

Holmes described how the investigation found that the two key pathways for the industry were ‘market dynamics’ and ‘technology adoption’ and that it was by studying these two that they were able to assess the current market and visualise where it might be in 2030.

Four scenarios are then available, ranging from low technology with a fragmented market to high technology with a unified market. This latter possibility, which is described as ‘Immersion’ is ultimately where Holmes and Atlantic believe the market will be in 2030, and he had some ideas as to what kind of gaming will be predominant in 15 years’ time.

“There will be fully immersive gaming and fully immersive gamification,” Holmes said. The former means that we have a scenario whereby we will be watching TV, then playing a game, then ordering a bottle of milk that gets delivered in 20 minutes by a drone.

“In terms of gamification, we know there is a shelf-life for draw-based games, so how do we morph it to the future? We believe the explicit data available, for example, through wearables that measure footsteps or even how your kids brush their teeth, means there is the possibility to collate it, compare it and gamble on it.

“Lotteries will have to move into different markets. If we are not supplying the product then someone else will. If you don’t supply the games people want, you will be circumvented.”