Polling & predictions for the Holyrood 2016 Elections

Panelbase, 23rd-28th of April

This poll was a bit of a surprise – having kept their gobs firmly shut from their January poll to their April poll, a second Panelbase poll a mere couple of weeks later was rather a bolt from the blue.

Most surprising is that they have the SNP on 49% of the constituency vote. Only one other poll this year had suggested that would be the case. My gut instinct is this is unlikely to be replicated on the day, especially given the 5% of the constituency vote for “others” is unlikely to find many others. Nonetheless, they still have a very healthy lead indeed over their competitors, and would be returned to parliament with both an increased majority and almost every constituency in the country.

Some much needed relief for Labour here who are not only on the highest regional vote share they’ve managed this year, backing up the recent TNS poll, but also the highest constituency result. That would be just enough by my calculator’s reckoning for them to – for the first and only time this year – hold onto a constituency, with Elaine Murray in Dumfriesshire narrowly holding back the constituency wipe out.

The Tories would receive their biggest haul of seats since Holyrood was created under this poll, but that late Labour bump would open up a wider gap between the two than most polling has predicted. It’s absolutely possible the Tories could yet come second, but Davidson would be wise not to get too attached to the notion of getting the opening question at First Minister’s Questions just yet.

A disappointing 6% for the Greens, the lowest they’ve been on since February, would nonetheless see a reasonable boost to their parliamentary representation, with 5 MSPs. With the Lib Dems only on 4% and dropping down to 3 seats, this would still see them replaced as the fourth party in Holyrood.

Unsurprisingly, neither UKIP nor RISE are expected to win any seats – but again, there’s a healthier looking 2% for RISE in this poll. I’m still absolutely certain they won’t win anything, and that’s still running close to 0% when you consider the margin of error, but interesting nonetheless.