2018 House Election Simulation

Who will control the House?

Select the Run Simulation button to conduct a simulated House of Representatives 2018 midterm election. You can choose to have the map populate randomly or by congressional district poll closing times. Seats changing parties in the simulation will be displayed in a table below the map.

There are a wide range of possible outcomes for this year’s election. As a result, any simulation is plausible based on current forecasts, but no individual result is particularly likely to happen. The party winning 218 or more seats in the actual midterm election will control the U.S. House when the 116th Congress begins in January.

Simulation Order:
Random

Simulation Order:
Poll Closing Times

Democrats

Republicans

2018 Election: Final Forecast

218 Needed for Control

The final model update took place on the morning of November 6th (Election Day). These are results for
the 5,000 most recent simulations as of noon Eastern Time that day.

Control

Average

Midpoint

80% Range*

Democrats

84.2%

232

231

214-251

Republicans

15.8%

203

204

184-221

Change^

+37

+36

* 80% probability the seats won by each party is within this range
^ Based on the current 240-195 House (vacancies assigned to previous incumbent's party)
Reload the page to update this table

In your most recent simulation, the had a net gain of seats. Those seats changing parties are detailed in the table below alongside the current consensus rating for that seat.

Seats Changing Parties

In Your Most Recent Simulation

District

Incumbent

Party

Consensus

Sim Result

CONS

SIM

X

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