Now... how does this thing work? Well, every time you level up the computer offers you to choose between a skill you already have and a new skill (or 2 new skills). The chance to get an existing skill is approximately (existing skill value)/(total of values of non-expert existing skills). The chance to get the new skill can be approximated by this formula: (value from the skill table)/(112 - total of values of the skills you already have).
for example, Ivor starts with archery and offense. The values for those skills add up to 13. The value of log skill for Ivor is 5.
So, the chance of Ivor getting logistics when he reaches level 2 is:
5/(112-13)=5.05%

*Note: Magic school skills and wisdom have some exceptions for might heroes. There may also be exceptions for the other skills.
If a might hero hasn't been offered a magic school yet, he will be offered one at level 4. If he turns it down a magic school will be offered again at level 8, if he keeps turning it down, he will also have one offered at levels 12, 16 and 20 (i.e. every 4-th level). If he gets offered a magic school on one of the other levels (see the chances in the random table above), the counter will be reset. Say, he is offered magic school at level 3. If he keeps turning it down and the counter doesn't get reset again, he will be offered it again on levels 7, 11, 15 and 19. The wisdom gets offered in a similar way. If you keep declining it and if the counter doesn't get reset, it will be offered on levels 6, 12 and 18.
Say, you want to know the chance of a certain hero getting earth magic before level 5. Instead of looking at earth magic skill values from the table, you need to look at the ratio of earth/total magic school values to get the chance of getting earth before level 5.

I believe that a mighthero will be offered a magicskill when he reaches lvl 4 unless he allready was offered a magicskill and he will be offered wisdom at lvl 6 unless he allready was offered wisdom. If you reject the magicskill you will be offered magic again as lvl 7 or 8 and wisdom again as lvl 12.
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Crag rules, Orrin and Ivor suck

Very nice info Russ.
If u take a deeper look on all these numbers, u will find some interesting details:

1. All elementalists start with Wisdom and 1 magic skill. Still they only have a "8" instead of a "10" on Wisdom......
2. If u take the 3 skills with the highest chances to get offered in every hero class, u will see "Ballistics" in 9 out of 16 classes (!)
3. If u forget the "10" on Learning for the Alchemists, u will be surprised about the next skills for them with the highest chances to get....Armorer, Logistics, Offense, all have a "8" (!!) Who would have thought that?
4. Demoniacs have a "10" on Logistics, and the next 2 skills with the highest chances to get are Offense and Armorer. Barbarians have a "10" on Offense, but the next "prefered" skills are Artillery, Ballistics, Pathfinding, Scouting and Tactics.
5. Overlords seem to have the best "prefered" skills besides Demoniacs. "10" for Tactics, and then "8" for Artillery, Leadership, Logistics and Offense.
6. Planeswalker are often underestimated (Heroes like Fiur, Kalt, Lacus etc..). Their prefered skills are Offense (9), Archery, Artillery, Logistics, Tactics (8). But also Learning (8) and Ballistics (8).
7. Alchemists are the "might" heroes of the Tower town. Although having 3 shooters in their native army, they have the lowest chance of getting archery (!!)
8. Deathknights canīt learn Estates (??), but Clavius is a +350 gold guy (??)
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Better judged by 12 than carried by 6.

Quote:These false infos are running thru all fanpages and fanforums through all theses years. Just to repeat them and even giving it a QP again, doesnt make it correct....

Just to say "No" isnīt a valid answer most of the time. As far as i remember, u posted a similar Excel file last year, but still no1 knows which one is the correct one and (more important) how to handle these numbers. If u know how to use them correctly, then feel free to share your knowledge. If u donīt want to share it, u have to live with the "tries" we noobs make to read those numbers...be it right or wrong...
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Better judged by 12 than carried by 6.

The rangers chance of getting earth when reaching lvl 4 is 3/7 not 3/6. Besides that i dont see any errors since what is calculated is the chance of getting earth the first time its offered (lvl 4) and not the chances of getting earth in 8 skills.
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Crag rules, Orrin and Ivor suck

Quote:Just to say "No" isnīt a valid answer most of the time. As far as i remember, u posted a similar Excel file last year, .....

Well u should reread this thread again, cause as far as i remember i stated in this thread smthn like "this is the txt file, but it seems to work else" already, even in this 2 years old thread.

FROM this thread on, people did know that at lvl4 mights get offered a magic skill everytime for example. Years before someone already mentioned that wisdom is given out on specific levels all the times (means: probabilty is 100% for every hero, not 112/smthn).

Why i dont mention "how it really works", is simple: I dont know how it really works. I just DO KNOW that it DOES NOT work how Russ did explained it. Its not even near how it really works. So u cant even say that the mentioned probabilities are near correct. They are plain wrong.

So Russ says "those are the probabilities" and you say "yes, good works QP", while the fact is that they are wrong.

The calculation "add all numbers and then divide through the given number" is just wrong. It doesnt work that way.

Iīm pretty sure, the calculation made for Logistics isnīt correct, but i think the calculation about the magic skill isnīt "too far" away from the truth. At least it makes sense.
All this maths canīt be 100% correct, coz what is really missing in all these tables, are the 2 (sometimes 1) skills the heroes start with.
Perhaps these numbers have been tested with edited Heroes (starting skills taken away), so the chance for each hero in each class for every skill is the same, no matter if u have Crag or Gurni as "test-hero".
Not sure how the "112" is defined, but if u start without any skill, and always level a skill to expert before u take a new one, u will be offered "28" skills till 7 slots are full (u start with 8 empty skill slots, so u get offered 2 skills first time, next u get 1 new, but u level up the existing one to advanced, next u get 1 new, but u level up the existing one to expert. Now first slot is full, and u get again 2 skills offered....and so on...). If he did that 4 times, he has 4*28 = 112.
Just a guess though....

But the +qp was not given for the bunch of work Russ had to make these tables. Itīs just a topic, which was discussed so many times and many many players want to know more about these "chances" and "probabilities". So bringing up again these tables is a very good idea, discussion can start again, and perhaps we get some new theories how it really works. I donīt know if u recieved a +qp for your former post about these numbers Xarfax, but i would have given 1 for sure.
Even if a thread doesnīt contain 100% correct infos, the idea itself can still be worthy to give out a +qp.
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Better judged by 12 than carried by 6.

Xarfax, my post may be far from 100% correct, but your posts in this thread are 100% useless. You sound like a spoiled little child trying to get some attention rather than an adult participating in a discussion. You know that I am wrong? I assume you base it on some facts? How about you post them here and help us to find out how it really works instead of talking about how stupid I am and how smart you are?

By the way, about log - I've tested Ivor + log and the chance of him getting it seems close to how I think this table works. (Obviously it doesn't apply to special cases such as levels where Ivor gets wisdom or magic school offered.) I've also tested Ivor+earth and he got it by level 5 47% of the time. I've never really tested the other skills. Also, the 50 tries I made with Ivor+log may be just a coincidence, so I may be wrong even with this one skill. If anyone wants to do some further testing - you are welcome to prove or disprove my theory (or even suggest a new one that works!) If anyone wants to flame me - feel free to make a post in Volcanic Wastelands.

Quote:Xarfax, my post may be far from 100% correct, but your posts in this thread are 100% useless. You sound like a spoiled little child trying to get some attention rather than an adult participating in a discussion.

No sorry its totally reverse: It sounds more like u two peeps write "oh common, nobody wants to hear your "NO", i copy and pasted it, then simply divided the numbers, and angelito gave a QP, soo its totally ok. If u disagre just leave, you just want attention.

Sorry the numbers are wrong, to give a QP for it is wrong too.

Where are your efforts in it? Every month someone copies those numbers for skillpercentages in this forum and do think hes telling someone new to the forum members.zzzZZZ (besides that the numbers are wrong).

You want better results? Well then put at least some effort in it.

Im not willing to serve everything on the silver tablett. So here is a hint for you: Might get offered ALWAYS a magic skill as 4th slot. How often do they get offered a magic skill as 1th slot. What does that mean to your loved 112?
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I agree with TC that in actual gameplay decisions are based on experience. There's maybe 5-6 skills that you really want to have. If you're offered one as a new skill, you take it, simple as that.

If someone's offered expert earth and basic offense, would they really turn down offense because some chart says it will "probably" come up again? "Probably" ain't good enough, I'm taking it now...I don't care what the chart says.

In my opinion, the main reason for discussions like this is simply because it's interesting to a lot of people. I'm not going to get out a calculator during a game to figure this stuff. But it's still interesting to talk about.

Anyway.

I think the odds chart is generally correct. Yes, there are known special cases when the chart's not used at all. And there are probably special cases we don't know about. But those are special exceptions.

Below is some raw data. This isn't theory, it's actual test data. It's the results of leveling from level 1 to level 2 almost 1300 times. (almost 1300 each for existing skills and new skills)

With all the variables involved, 1300 is a fairly large sample size to show general trends, but it's not large enough too get picky about details. Like why is Sylvia's water magic so high? The sample size is small enough that you're likely to see some wierd results. But it's large enough to make you wonder if *maybe* Sylvia is some kind of special case and is done differently.

But the general trend does strongly show that the odds chart is approximately correct for both existing skills and new skills. All seven Knights start with leadership (rated 10 in the chart). Archery, armorer and artillery are all rated 5. If you add the total leadership results for Orin, Valeska, Edric and Christian, and compare that to the totals for their second skill it should be a ration of 2:1 according to the odds chart (10:5). The actual results from testing are 2.1:1.

And before someone says I don't have a life, I collected this data over a couple years time.

This chart shows the number of times the skill was offered. The number to the right of the skill is from the odds chart that's been posted. The average for new skills hopefully makes it easier to see the trends.

Quote:Here are the chances for different hero classes to gain a point in a certain primary skill on level up:

Hi Binabik, thats the headline that Russ gave. What uve just tested is the percentage of getting a skill offered the first time. In that case your results are near as correct. For the above mentioned question they will lead you to the wrong results.

The numbers of the txt have smthn to do with the calculation, but are only a part of it.

An example: What do think are the highest probalities for a Barbarian? ...Logistics? Tactics? Artillery?...well the answer is: Wisdom (100%), Earth(approx. 70%).

..if uve a look at the table u would think that the probability of getting Wisdom or Earth (both are about "4"), would be VERY LOW, when it is actually the HIGHEST probabilities he has got.

To your testing amount: Years ago, we made some testing in the Drachenwald-Community with about 10 players (Motorschaaf, Mystic Phoenix, xx1, T-Rex, Venom, Nephilim, Grishnakk, Conan_dw, Kane, Crusuader and me). The total testing amount was: 81.920 tries.
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When I first started testing this, I was just trying to find out if the chart applied to existing skills as well as new skills. That's why I used knights, because they all start with leadership and made it easier to calculate.

Do you still have the results of your tests? You should post it if you do (unless it's too big)

This thing about barbarians always getting wisdom has been posted a lot around here. I've seen it said for barbarians, or all might heroes. By level or by slot. Any magic skill or specific magic skill.

To clarify all in one place:

1) This is for ALL might heroes
2) It's by level, not by slot.
3) It applies to BOTH wisdom AND one school of magic, not to intelligence, sorcery, etc.

It works like this:

Levels 2-3. I assume it uses the odds table.

Level 4. You will be offered a school of magic *IF* you have not already been OFFERED one. It doesn't matter if you accepted the offer or not. You will NOT automatically be offered it at level 4 if you turned it down earlier.

Level 5. I assume it uses the odds table.

Level 6. You will be offered wisdom. Same as level 4, *IF* you weren't already offered it.

Now here's where it gets more complicated. You can get the skill in two ways: randomly or because of level.

Let's say you don't get it randomly, but only by level. If you always turn down the skill, it cycles through. A school of magic will be offered every 4th level. Wisdom every 6th level.

Magic: Levels 4,8,12,16,20
Wisdom: Levels 6,12,18

If you don't get it randomly and always turn it down, you will be offered both wisdom and magic at level 12.

Now what if you DO get it randomly? The counter resets at that level and starts counting over.

For example: If you are offered wisdom at level 3 and turn it down, you will be offered it again every 6 levels starting from level 3. So you will get it at levels 3,9,15,21.

If you were offered magic at level 3, it's every 4 levels: 3,7,11,15,19.

If you're offered it randomly a second time, the counter resets again.

For example: If wisdom is offered randomly at levels 3 and 10. The levels would be 3,9,10,16

1) You do not talk about the Test Club.
2) Guess what ? You do not talk about the Test Club !
3) If someone yells "stop!", goes limp, taps out, the Test is over.
4) Only two guys to a Test.
5) Only one Test at a time.
6) No shirt, no shoes when Testing.
7) Tests will go on as long as they have to.
8) If this is your first night at the Test Club, you have to Test !!!

Now are we talking, Tyler... er, I mean Xarfax ? Lmao

II) LEGENDARY TEST PROJECT

1) INTRODUCTION

Okay, seriously now : I'm sick and tired to the very bone of hearing "this hero levels up like crap" or "that one builds up great" without anything reliable to support such statements.

We obviously won't be able to figure out how it works exactly by comparing probabilities. So here comes the Legend with a Legendarilyfresh idea to kill the mystery once and for all !

How about statistics ?

Basically, my idea is simply to level up each hero 100 times in a row, and note which skills he/she gets offered each time. Then, hopefully some accurate calculations and/or useful interpretations might be derived from the results. At least, that's my aim.

There are 145 regular Heroes in the game. 100 tests for each... Yup, that does mean 14500 tests ahead, folks !

Since it will be an enormous task, I doubt I'll ever have time and patience do it all on my own. So the "Test Club" part has some seriousness in it (beyond the obvious joke of part I) : I invite any reliable and motivated tester to join me in this project. C'mon guys, I could really use some help !

My dream team would be this line-up (listed in alphabetical order to not make anyone jealous ) :

Anyone interested just contact me and I'll give you the map and docs I created for this project.

Suggestions about the following test protocol could also be useful (constructive ones, that is).

2) PROTOCOL

a) The Map

I've crafted a specific map for this project. Here is a screenshot of the main part to give you an idea :

The rest of the map has the necessary mines (no less than 80 gems mines and 40 gold mines ! ) and one AI blue player squared and blocked so the tester(s) have all the necessary time and nothing to worry about while running a test. This is, of course, the Dungeon version (meant to test all 16 Dungeon Heroes) but it will be extremely easy to adapat the map for any other town type.

b) The Docs

I've also designed two documents (1 Excel workbook and 1 Word document) to gather the results of the tests. Here is a screenshot of the entry form (Word) :

A shot of the Excel table in which to type any test in progress (until it's pasted and saved in the Word document) :

If you wonder why I typed all 28 skills at the top of both skill columns, it's for autotyping to work. Saves much time.

And now an example of a completed test :

c) The Rules

I already tested the whole protocol quite a few times as I was establishing it. It became quickly obvious that it wouldn't be reliable enough if the Skill Selection was done randomly or just based on the tester(s)'(s) tastes. So we need rules to follow for each and every test.

I scratched my head a bit and came up with some. Especially if some of you, which I hope, join me in this project, this can of course be discussed. However, rules must be final and agreed upon by all testers before we start the actual testings.

Basic rules :

Skill Selection must be done following this order of priority : Great > Good > Okay > Crap > Forbidden.

Exceptions :

Any hero whose specialty is a spell will have the corresponding Magic School set as "Great" and will struggle to get it as absoulte priority.

Any Might Hero who has already one Magic School will discard a second one in favor of another equally well rated Skill.

Any Magic Hero who has already two Magic Schools will discard a third one in favor of another equally well rated Skill.

3) Conclusion

Looking forward to reading your replies, folks ! I'm eager to start the testings, but will delay a bit so you get the chance to make useful suggestions that I could include in the protocol.

I will, in any case, do all Dungeon and Necro heroes myself (personnal reasons : my greatest allied type and greatest enemy type respectively ). 3200 tests out of 14500. But I might do more in time.

Big project u have here.
Hopefully gives us some new infos about the level up.

Let me add 2 things though:

1. Iīm not sure your skill table "great,good,okay,crap" is accurat. For example, saying "artillery" is crap for might hero, but "luck" is good, seems to be a small joke..
2. Everytime u have to chose between the 2 skills offered, the "skill tree" could go into a different direction if u chose different.

Conclusion of 1. and 2. :

ALWAYS chose a skill you already have, until u r on expert level, but note down the other offered skill every time. This way u get more reliable results i guess.
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Better judged by 12 than carried by 6.

The pattern that seems to occur with wisdom and magic school skills for might heroes could be similar for some other skills for certain hero classes.
If I was doing the testing, I would do a test for each useful skill (log, tactics, offense, armorer, path), plus maybe some other decent skills too such as archery or intelligence. There is no need to do any more tests for magic school skills and wisdom, and I would assume noone cares about crap skills like eagle eye.
Also, I don't think there is a need to do it for each hero. Only one hero from each class. (Obviously, say, if you are testing offense, you would want to chose a hero that doesn't start with it.)
The way I would do it is I would AVOID chosing the tested skill, yet I would note when this skill gets offered. Some skills could go together to form a pattern(just like the 4 magic school skills' pattern), but I would just test single skills for a start.
Example:
test 1 (barbarians, logistics): 2, 9
test 2: 5, 16
test 3: -
(etc, etc 100 times)
... repeat 100 times for each useful skill for each hero class (start with magic hero classes first since those are the most played)
(i.e. for test one it would mean a barbarian hero got offered log when he reached levels 2 and 9, on 2-nd test he got offered log when he reached levels 5 and 16, for test 3 he never had it offered, etc)

Btw - regarding your test map - it is much easier to test using the Pandora Box with experience. Put in the xp needed to reach level 23 and test away.

Hehe, so 2 already joined (out of the 5 testers I mention in wishlits !) Great news !

Welcome you both to the Test Club !

Thanks for the (quite useful) suggestions you both made. I don't have much time right now but I'm already mentally reconsidering the protocol taking those into accounts.

Some quick remarks :

Quote:If I was doing the testing, I would...

What "if", dude ? You are !

Quote:Big project u have here.

What "u", man ? You must have meant "we", right ?!

Quote:Hopefully gives us some new infos about the level up.

That's the goal.

Quote:ALWAYS chose a skill you already have, until u r on expert level, but note down the other offered skill every time. This way u get more reliable results i guess.

Extremely interesting idea. It has the enormous advantage of being 100% reliable. But it has also a downside : none of our testings will ever be even close to real game situation... (Who would ever discard Basic Offense in favor of Advanced Scouting, for instance ?) Then again, it really makes me wonder... Reliable results, realistic in themselves or not, seems obviously the most important thing to achieve. Pretty good point, in any case !

Quote:Also, I don't think there is a need to do it for each hero. Only one hero from each class.

No way ! I'm going all the way or not all. Every single hero levels up differently, I'm confident in that. It doesn't work just by classes, it's much more intricate than that, IMHO. Sure, 1800 tests would be an easier task than my planned 14500, but the results would also be so much less useful.

Quote:Btw - regarding your test map - it is much easier to test using the Pandora Box with experience. Put in the xp needed to reach level 23 and test away.

You are kidding me, right ? You can actually customize the Pando boxes with the map editor ?! Oh ****, and you had to tell me that after I'd spent hours aliging those ****ing trees one by one ! LMFAO Ok, I'll check that out tonight.