The latest CitiFX Strategy Weekly note is out, laying out the big issues for currency traders right now.

There are two sections devoted to politics. One is strictly on the question of what a Romney win might mean for the US dollar. The other part is about political risk more broadly.

We view most of the recent price action in G10 FX (with the possible exception of the USDJPY rally) as being the result of squaring up ahead of the US election and 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. The biggest political risk is the potential that the US result won‘t be known due to the combination of a tight election and re-count/mail-in issues in swing states.