Mission Highlights

Domestic cereal supply in 2003/04 is estimated at 118 200 tonnes, while total national consumption requirement is estimated
at 438 900 tonnes. This results in a cereal import requirement of 320 700 tonnes. Commercial imports are projected at 288 700
tonnes with food aid needs estimated at 32 000 tonnes. WFP has 12 000 tonnes in the pipeline, leaving a gap of 20 000 tonnes
to be covered by additional external assistance.

The Mission forecasts 2002/03 cereal production at 89 100 tonnes. Maize production is estimated at 61 400 tonnes, wheat at
24 300 tonnes and sorghum at 3 400 tonnes. Aggregate cereal production this year will be 66 percent higher than the very low
production of 53 800 tonnes estimated by last year’s FAO/WFP Mission.

A combination of better though below normal domestic cereal production and improved commercial import capacity suggests that
there will be no serious cereal shortages at the national level. However, the key issue remains physical and economic access
to food for certain segments of the population.

The Mission estimates that 32 000 tonnes of cereals will need to be distributed as food aid to targeted households. The number
of beneficiaries will vary from 125 000 to about 270 000 during the lean period. Targeted food assistance is recommended
to households that have lost their crops entirely and have no livestock and those affected by HIV/AIDS. Emergency provision
of agricultural inputs to these families for the next cropping season will be also necessary.

Agriculture in Lesotho faces a long term decline if current trends continue. Severe soil and land degradation, lack of proper
land and crop husbandry practices, inefficient use of improved seeds, fertilizers and pesticides, and an extension service
without appropriate technical messages continue to hamper agricultural production.

1. OVERVIEW

Following two consecutive years of poor harvests, the Government of Lesotho requested FAO and WFP for assistance in reviewing
the country's food situation and outlook for the 2003/04 marketing year. Consequently, an FAO/ WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment
Mission was fielded from 22 April to 1 May, 2003 to estimate the current season cereal production, assess the overall food
supply situation and forecast import requirements for 2003/04 marketing year (April/March), including food assistance needs.

The Mission received full cooperation from the Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security, the Ministry of Economic Planning,
the Disaster Management Authority, the Ministry of Industry, Trade and Marketing, and the Bureau of Statistics. Discussions
were also held with relevant UN agencies including UNICEF, WHO, UNDP, as well as donor representatives, NGOs, and grain importers.
The Mission split into two groups and was able to cover all the ten districts of the country. Interviews were conducted with
each District Agricultural Officer and staff from crops, livestock, extension, disaster management, nutrition, and health
divisions to get information and their assessment of the situation within their districts. Interviews were also conducted
with Village Chiefs, farmers, households and traders. Overall, more than 120 interviews were conducted during the course of
the mission.

The Mission forecasts 2002/03 cereal production at 89 100 tonnes. Maize production is estimated at 61 400 tonnes, wheat at
24 300 tonnes and sorghum at 3 400 tonnes. Other crops such as beans, potatoes and peas were also observed on most farmers'
fields and contribute to the diet of families and cash incomes when grown in larger quantities. The Government cereal production
figures for the last few years appear to be biased upwards. The Mission therefore uses last year’s FAO/WFP assessment mission
figures for comparison. On this basis, production this year will be 66 percent higher than the very low production last year.
The Mission estimated the total cropped area at 178 300 hectares, about 84 percent of the area in normal years and 33 percent
higher than last year’s figure. Some land was not planted because of the late arrival of subsidised inputs and the lack of
tractors and machinery.

With an estimated total domestic cereal supply of 118 200 tonnes, and total utilization requirement of 438 900 tonnes, the
country faces a shortfall of about 321 000 tonnes for 2003/04 marketing year. Commercial imports are forecast at 288 700 tonnes,
leaving a gap of 32 000 tonnes to be covered as food aid. Against this requirement, WFP food aid in the pipeline for the current
marketing year stands at 12 000 tonnes. Thus, there is an uncovered requirement of 20 000 tonnes which needs to be met by
additional external food assistance.

A combination of better though below normal domestic cereal production and improved commercial import capacity suggests that
there will be no serious cereal shortages at the national level. However, the key issue remains physical and economic access
to food for certain segments of the population. High unemployment and inflation rates, particularly in the rural areas, coupled
with the impact of HIV/AIDS means that certain segments of the population do not have the purchasing power to access food
even if it is available in the market.

Inflationary pressures in 2002 were strong resulting in double-digit inflation for the first time in about 7 years. The food
items that contribute about 36 percent of the consumer price index were the main drives of overall inflation. The food items
index rose by an average of 26.3 percent during the year compared to an average increase of 6.7 percent in 2001. Timely Government
interventions such as the Famine Relief Programme and food assistance from the international community contributed to mitigate
the food crisis of last year.

Early this year the price of cereals began to decline as harvest prospects improved. It is expected that cereal prices will
continue to decline over the course of the marketing year as millers exhaust their stocks of cereals bought at very high prices
last year. Furthermore, a good maize production in South Africa will also contribute to the decline in prices. The maize SAFEX
(South Africa Futures Exchange) prices have declined from a high of R2045/tonne in April 2002 to R782/tonne in April 2003.
It is likely that the appreciation of the Rand will contribute to lower demand from other regional countries for South African
grain as it has become relatively more expensive. Countries that normally import cereals from South Africa may look to international
markets elsewhere. Swaziland and Lesotho are the only regional countries that are not impacted by the appreciation of the
Rand as their currencies are pegged at par with it.

UNAIDS estimates that the HIV prevalence in Lesotho is about 31 percent. It is likely that the infection rates may be even
higher because HIV/AIDS remains a stigmatised disease and there is no real economic or medical incentive for people to disclose
their infection. Infection rates are particularly high among young adults who form a large proportion of the economically
active population. In addition to its humanitarian and social consequences, HIV/AIDS has severe economic costs, as it constrains
output growth, eliminates work skills and knowledge, shrinks the tax base, raises health-related costs, reduces disposable
income, and increases financial imbalance in the public pension funds. Serious and immediate interventions need to be designed
and implemented to control this disease. In the absence of such measures the overall economic and social conditions in the
country will continue to worsen.

The Mission estimates that 38 000 tonnes of mixed food commodities, including 32 000 tonnes of cereals, will need to be distributed
as food aid to targeted households. The number of beneficiaries will vary from around 225 000 to about 432 000 during the
lean period. The assistance for HIV/AIDS affected households will be implemented in all of the 10 districts. In addition,
in some districts there will be emergency assistance targeting households that have lost their crops entirely and have neither
livestock nor off-farm income with which to buy food from the market.

Agriculture in Lesotho faces a catastrophic future due to structural rather than seasonal constraints. Severe soil and land
degradation, lack of proper land and crop husbandry practices, inefficient use of improved seeds, fertilizers and pesticides,
and an ineffective extension service continue to hamper agricultural production and development. If long-term interventions
are not introduced as a matter of urgency, it is highly probable that crop production will completely cease on large tracts
of agricultural land.

2. CURRENT SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONDITIONS

Lesotho’s economic performance has improved over the last two years but remains below the high growth rates achieved in early
to mid 1990s. The real GDP growth rate in 2002/03 was 4 percent compared to 3 percent in 2001/02. It is projected that the
growth rate will be around 4.4 percent during the current fiscal year. The key factors for improved growth prospects include
successful completion of elections in May 2002 that bolstered confidence and foreign direct investment in the textile and
clothing industries as well as in construction and manufacturing sectors. The manufacturing and construction sectoral growth
rates are projected at 10 percent each, whereas the agricultural sector is expected to contract by about 1.4 percent reflecting
long term depression rather than seasonal constraints.

The budget for fiscal year 2003/04 projects a deficit of Maloti 742.9 million before grants—8.5 percent of GDP. However, after
grants the deficit drops to M450.4 million or 5.2 percent of GDP. Major expenditure allocations include 28 percent for education
and culture, 12.3 percent for health and social security, and 6.1 percent for agriculture and rural development.

The third review of Lesotho’s economic performance under the three-year Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) programme
was completed in September 2002. The review stated that Lesotho observed most of the quantitative and structural performance
criteria and completed most structural benchmarks. However, the criterion on domestic financing was breached mainly due to
delayed external disbursements. The domestic revenue collections fell below the projections during the year, but the establishment
of Lesotho Revenue Authority (LRA) last year is expected to curb revenue leakages. LRA is expected to function as an autonomous
self-financing body responsible for tax, sales tax and customs and excise departments.

The dependence on revenue from South African Customs Union (SACU) is being gradually reduced from over 75 percent in the mid
1980s to about 50 percent in recent years. It is expected that revenues from this source will continue to decline as external
tariffs come under World Trade Organization rules and in line with other free trade agreements. However, Lesotho may continue
to benefit under the new SACU agreement signed in 2002, under which payments to Lesotho will be higher due to its lower per
capita income compared with other SACU member countries.

Lesotho has been a major beneficiary of the US Government’s Africa Growth and Opportunities Act (AGOA). At the end of 2002
approximately 44 000 jobs depended on manufactured exports with the expectation that more jobs will be created in the export
sector. The Government is committed to follow export-oriented policies and acknowledges that the future of economic growth
in Lesotho depends on the success of continuously attracting foreign direct investment (FDI). However, this policy needs to
be carefully examined because the main attraction for FDI in Lesotho is not necessarily its comparative advantage or natural
resource base for the production of export commodities, but rather because of its preferential access to various international
markets.

Lesotho’s current account deficit for 2001/02 is estimated at US$ 72.3 million and capital and financial accounts at US$ 111.5
million. The trade deficit is estimated at US$ 353.8 million with exports accounting for 47 percent of the total imports (Figure
1). The key exports remain textiles, footwear, mohair and some live animals.

Figure 1. Imports and Exports of Lesotho 1997/98 to 2001/02

Source: Central Bank of Lesotho, IMF Country Report 2002

The external debt for the fiscal year 2002/03 is estimated at US$ 735 million resulting in an external debt to GDP ratio of
69.7 percent and debt service ratio of 9.7 percent. Official foreign exchange reserves are expected to be US$ 381.3 worth
five months of imports of goods and services.

Lesotho's currency, the Maloti, (pegged at par with the South African Rand) which had been declining against major world currencies
since 1998/99 began to appreciate after hitting a low of US$1 = M11.6 in January 2002. Currently the Maloti is trading at
US$1 = M7.4, a 36 percent appreciation since the beginning of last year. Increased global demand for gold from South Africa,
considered a safe investment in times of heightened global political and economic uncertainty, has contributed to the appreciation
of the Rand and therefore the Maloti. The depreciation of the US dollar against major currencies also made gold relatively
cheaper for investors. A stronger Maloti implies cheaper imports for Lesotho, which could improve the balance of payments.
However, the downside is that the country’s foreign reserves in other major currencies have declined due to this revaluation.

Average unemployment rate for Lesotho remains around 30 percent, but there have been some significant positive developments
in 2002. The unemployment situation for Basotho workers in South African mines stabilized in 2002 after declining for over
10 years and the average annual earnings increased by 10 percent (Table 1). This increase is largely attributed to higher
demand for South African gold in an environment of increased global economic and political uncertainty. However, despite these
developments the number of Basotho working in South Africa stands at 50 percent of the 1991 level.

Table 1. Number of Basotho Working in the South African Mines (1991-2002)

Year

Number of Workers

Year on Year Change (%)

Average Earnings (Rand)

Year on Year Change (%)

1991

122 188

1 194

1992

119 596

-2.1

12 440

941.9

1993

116 129

-2.9

13 359

7.4

1994

112 722

-2.9

14 562

9.0

1995

103 744

-8.0

16 801

15.4

1996

101 262

-2.4

19 186

14.2

1997

95 913

-5.3

21 193

10.5

1998

80 445

-16.1

24 678

16.4

1999

68 604

-14.7

27 657

12.1

2000

64 907

-5.4

30 131

8.9

2001

61 412

-5.4

32 030

6.3

2002

62 158

1.2

35 326

10.3

Source: Central Bank of Lesotho Annual Report 2002

The Mission observed that the HIV/AIDS pandemic is severely impacting the labour force of the country. UNAIDS estimates that
the HIV prevalence in Lesotho is about 31 percent. Lesotho is the fourth most affected country in the world following Botswana
(38.8 percent), Zimbabwe (33.7 percent) and Swaziland (33.4 percent). While infections have declined in some countries (Botswana,
Namibia and South Africa), infection rates in Lesotho continued to rise over the last decade to the current levels. It is
likely that the HIV infection rate may be even higher because HIV/AIDS remains a stigmatised disease and there is no real
economic or medical incentive for people to disclose infection. The hospitals in rural Lesotho that the Mission visited had
over 90 percent of patients with full-blown AIDS and HIV/AIDS related diseases. Retrovir drugs are not available or they are
too expensive for the population.

3. FOOD PRODUCTION IN 2002/03

The agricultural sector in Lesotho continues to face extremely serious structural problems. Severe soil and land degradation,
lack of proper land and crop husbandry practices, inefficient use of improved seeds, fertilizers and pesticides, and an extension
service without appropriate technical messages hamper agricultural production and development. If long-term interventions
are not introduced as a matter of urgency, it is highly probable that crop production will completely cease on large tracts
of agricultural land. Lesotho’s last agricultural census (1999/2000) highlighted the fact that the country’s cultivated land
has increased from 317 900 to 406 500 hectares between 1989 and 2000, with the increase attributed to extension of cultivation
to marginal lands that were previously fallow/grazing land.

Agro-meteorological conditions

In general, this year the distribution of rains was generally better in the north as compared to the south of the country
(Figure 2). The onset of the rains was in October in most areas, which facilitated early land preparation where fields had
been ploughed during the winter. This ensured that the optimum planting date for maize and sorghum was achieved where machinery
and physical inputs were available. November was a dry month throughout the country with most stations receiving only a third
of their normal rainfall, and this resulted in delayed planting operations for farmers. The remainder of the rainy season
was erratic and the distribution uneven, particularly in southern districts of the country

Supply of agricultural inputs

Following two years of poor crop production, the Government declared a state of famine in the country in May 2002. As part
of their response, the GoL through its famine relief programme, devised a crop input subsidy scheme with the objective of
increasing the purchasing power of the farming community for inputs that would enable them to recover from the crisis. The
intention was to ensure that all fields, everywhere in the country, were ploughed, fertilized and planted. Funds amounting
to more than US$ 7.5 million were disbursed by GoL for the provision of machinery and the purchase of seed and fertilizer;
FAO, UNICEF, Lesotho Red Cross and Care International also provided inputs under this programme.

Various seeds and fertilizer were subsidised at 50 percent and distributed to farmers either for payment in cash or on a credit
basis. Field machinery operations such as ploughing, cultivating and planting were also subsidised at 50 percent. All farmers
were entitled to seed, fertilizer and machinery at subsidised rates, the quantities being based on the size of their fields
as calculated by Extension Officers in the District Agricultural Offices. Quantities of seed and fertilizer distributed per
district are shown in Table 2. In addition, the GoL has purchased 60 000 tonnes of lime, which is currently arriving in the
country and will be distributed to all districts. Soils are tending to become more acidic and this reduces the yield potential
of all crops.

Table 2. Total quantities of subsidised seed and fertilizer by district in 2002/03 (tonnes)

TYPE OF INPUT

DISTRICT

Fertilizer

Maize

Beans

Wheat

Peas

Sorghum

Potatoes

Botha Bothe

878.4

65.9

91.3

1.0

0.0

0.0

45.0

Leribe

3 392.1

216.9

160.0

17.1

0.5

0.3

57.5

Berea

4 287.7

246.4

168.6

29.3

0.0

0.0

97.5

Maseru

3 922.3

431.7

171.9

30.0

5.8

13.8

186.0

Mafeteng

2 057.3

136.6

74.0

15.4

0.0

7.5

43.5

Mohale’s Hoek

2 144.8

92.0

85.7

16.7

0.0

28.5

69.5

Quthing

715.4

47.2

36.6

26.5

3.0

5.0

66.5

Quacha’s Nek

245.5

22.8

44.5

72.6

2.6

0.0

37.5

Thaba-Tseka

141.0

29.7

8.0

22.7

1.2

1.3

20.0

Mokhotlong

85.8

19.8

31.1

95.2

0.0

0.0

27.5

TOTAL

17 870.3

1 309.0

871.7

326.5

13.1

56.4

650.5

In total, 17 870.3 tonnes of fertilizer were distributed along with 3 227.2 tonnes of seed. In addition, fodder seeds were
distributed: 22.6 tonnes of teff, 42.5 tonnes of fodder sorghum, 9.9 tonnes of triticale, and 22.6 tonnes of oats. Unfortunately,
the inputs arrived late in most areas which severely delayed planting, in some districts incompatible fertilizers and seeds
were delivered and there was also inequitable distribution of these inputs.

Areas planted

Following the 2001/02 cropping season when large areas of arable land lay fallow in all districts because of heavy and widespread
rains which interrupted planting, there was a concerted drive to plant as much land as possible during the 2002/03 season.
This is presented in Tables 3a and 3b below, the first comparing Government statistics and the second comparing the estimates
of the Mission with last year’s Mission estimates.

The area planted to each of the major cereal crops in each district is given in Table 4b. The total national maize area is
estimated at 148 400 ha, while the area under sorghum and wheat is estimated at 7 300 ha and 22 600 ha respectively.

Table 3a. Total Cereal Area (‘000 hectares) in 2002/03 compared to 1997/98-2001/02 Average

DISTRICT

1997/98

1998/99

1999/00

2000/01

2001/02

5 YearAverage

2002/03

Percent ofaverage

Butha-Buthe

4.9

5.6

10.7

7.5

6.7

7.1

9.3

130.9

Leribe

27.8

35.1

41.0

47.7

36.5

37.6

38.8

103.2

Berea

12.9

20.6

35.3

34.3

30.1

26.6

31.4

118.0

Maseru

24.2

33.2

37.6

42.3

27.4

32.9

31.8

96.7

Mafeteng

12.3

23.0

36.4

54.2

28.4

30.9

32.8

106.1

Mohale's Hoek

16.2

29.9

17.3

40.0

18.7

24.4

19.5

79.9

Quthing

9.2

12.6

11.1

14.8

8.5

11.2

9.1

81.3

Qacha's Nek

3.4

3.8

6.6

7.2

5.3

5.3

4.3

81.1

Mokhotlong

14.8

13.1

12.6

14.5

13.4

13.7

7.1

51.8

Thaba-Tseka

32.3

22.3

17.1

19.3

18.2

21.8

25.4

116.5

LESOTHO

158.0

199.2

225.7

281.8

193.21

211.5

209.5

99.1

Source: Bureau of Statistics; Estimates by the Dept. of Crops.

Totals computed from unrounded data.

1/ Official Government Statistics for 2001/02 put the total cereal area in Lesotho at 193 200 hectares. This compares with
the

FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission figure of 133 600 hectares. There is a large difference between these

figures particularly as such large areas remained unplanted, and a correction to official figures must be made to take
account of

The Mission's estimates of crop yields for the year 2002/03 are based on data provided by the Department of Crops, adjusted
on the basis of field assessments. Table 4 a provides the area and yield estimates of cereal production by the Department
of Crops and Table 4b gives the Mission estimates of area, yield, and cereal production. Yields per hectare at the national
level were higher than last year but remained highly variable between districts. Southern lowland districts of Mafeteng, Mohale’s
Hoek and Quthing were worst affected and in many areas will produce no grain at all for the second consecutive year. Northern
lowland districts of Berea, Leribe, and Butha-Buthe were relatively less affected and yields were slightly better. All foothill
and mountain areas although variable even within districts showed the best potential.

Table 4a. Area and Yield of Cereal Crops in 2002/03, by District

DISTRICT

Wheat

Maize

Sorghum

Area ‘000 ha

Yield

Prod.

Area ‘000 ha

YieldKg/ha

Prod.

Area ‘000 ha

YieldKg/ha

Prod.

Kg/ha

‘000tonnes

‘000tonnes

‘000tonnes

Butha-Buthe

0.7

520

0.4

6.9

198

1.4

1.7

62

0.1

Leribe

3.5

1 730

6.0

30.7

705

21.6

4.6

103

0.5

Berea

1.4

1 730

2.4

26.3

630

16.6

3.7

429

1.6

Maseru

1.2

1 470

1.5

26.2

451

11.8

4.4

134

0.6

Mafeteng

3.5

1 500

5.3

24.7

510

12.6

4.6

512

2.4

Mohale's Hoek

4.0

1 000

4.0

12.5

292

3.6

3.0

91

0.3

Quthing

2.5

1 000

2.5

5.1

299

1.5

1.5

95

0.1

Qacha's Nek

1.6

860

1.4

2.1

450

0.9

0.6

111

0.1

Mokhotlong

0.5

1 040

0.5

6.5

72

0.5

0.1

-

-

Thaba-Tseka

11.0

740

8.1

12.7

352

4.5

1.7

629

1.1

LESOTHO

29.9

1 070

32.1

153.7

488

75.0

25.9

258

6.8

Source: Department of Crops 2003

Table 4b. Area and Yield of Cereal Crops in 2002/03, by District

DISTRICT

Wheat

Maize

Sorghum

Area ‘000 ha

YieldKg/ha

Prod.

Area ‘000 ha

YieldKg/ha

Prod.

Area ‘000 ha

YieldKg/ha

Prod.

‘000tonnes

‘000 tonnes

‘000tonnes

Butha-Buthe

1.1

500

0.6

4.3

450

1.9

0.2

300

0.1

Leribe

3.5

1 700

6.0

19.5

500

9.8

-

-

-

Berea

1.4

1 700

2.4

40.2

500

20.1

0.1

500

0.1

Maseru

1.2

1 450

1.7

32.2

400

12.9

1.4

450

0.6

Mafeteng

3.4

1 500

5.1

17.0

250

4.3

0.4

450

0.2

Mohale's Hoek

1.5

1 000

1.5

11.1

300

3.3

4.6

450

2.1

Quthing

0.4

1 000

0.4

8.6

300

2.6

0.4

450

0.2

Qacha's Nek

1.2

350

0.4

3.1

300

0.9

-

-

-

Mokhotlong

4.5

1 050

4.7

3.8

350

1.3

-

-

-

Thaba-Tseka

4.4

350

1.5

8.6

500

4.3

0.2

300

0.1

LESOTHO

22.6

1 075

24.3

148.4

414

61.4

7.3

466

3.4

Source: FAO/WFP Mission 2003.

Extensive discussions were held with farmers, extension workers, District Agricultural Officials, the Ministry of Agriculture
at Headquarters, and the Disaster Management Authority Officials. It was clearly established that very late planting of the
crops due to the late arrival of subsidised seed and fertilizers and the shortage of tractors and machinery were the main
constraint to production this year. The most important factor was the late planting of the maize and sorghum crops, for which
any delay after the optimum planting date considerably reduces yield. Scattered and generally localised hailstorms also caused
some damage in some districts, and cutworms and stalk borers caused further damage to the crops, particularly those planted
late.

National average yields of maize and sorghum are estimated at 414 kg/ha and 466 kg/ha, respectively. Combined summer and winter
wheat average yields are estimated at around 1 075 kg/ha. Table 5a compares this year’s estimated total cereal production
with that of the last five years and Table 5b compares this year’s estimated cereal production with the estimates made by
last year’s FAO/WFP Mission.

Table 5a. Total Cereal Production (‘000 tonnes) in 2002/03 Compared to 1997/98-2001/02 Average.

DISTRICT

1997-98

1998-99

1999-00

2000-01

2001-02

5 yearaverage

2002-03

Percentofaverage

Butha-Buthe

11.4

8.3

12.5

7.0

4.0

8.6

1.9

22.1

Leribe

26.5

36.5

36.6

44.4

34.0

35.6

28.1

78.9

Berea

24.8

19.9

38.0

29.4

25.8

27.6

20.6

74.6

Maseru

27.9

38.9

29.6

44.7

21.4

32.5

13.9

42.8

Mafeteng

9.3

8.9

15.9

41.1

19.3

18.9

20.3

107.4

Mohale's Hoek

27.1

17.8

8.9

46.4

6.6

21.4

7.9

36.9

Quthing

10.3

11.0

12.7

16.1

3.0

10.6

4.1

38.7

Qacha's Nek

2.3

1.6

4.0

6.6

5.0

3.9

2.4

61.5

Mokhotlong

19.6

9.0

6.0

21.4

11.8

13.6

1.0

7.4

Thaba-Tseka

31.8

20.9

14.3

24.5

11.2

20.5

13.7

66.8

LESOTHO

191.0

172.8

178.5

281.61/

142.12/

193.2

113.9

59.0

Source: Bureau of Statistics; estimates by the Dept. of Crops and the Mission for year 2002/03

1/ Official Government Statistics for 2000/01 put the total cereal production in Lesotho at 281 600 tonnes. This compares
with the FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission figure of 80 300 tonnes and the Lesotho Early Warning Unit figure
of 159 000 tonnes. There is a tremendous disparity between these figures, and during extensive discussions in country, this
mission feels that the correct figure may be closer to the last year’s assessment figure. A correction to official figures
should be made to take account of this discrepancy.

2/ Official Government Statistics for 2001/02 put the total cereal production in Lesotho at 142 100 tonnes. This compares
with the FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission figure of 53 800 tonnes. Once again, there is a tremendous disparity
between these figures, and a correction to official figures must be made to take account of this discrepancy.

Winter wheat

The 2002 wheat crop was higher than the previous year – a larger area was planted and generally better yields were achieved.
At the time of the mission visit, some farmers were busy planting winter wheat that will be harvested in September/October
2003. Planting of winter wheat normally starts in mid-April making use of the residual moisture and small amounts of rainfall.
Sporadic rainfall during April will have helped land preparation and planting operations, although soil moisture levels are
not as high as in 2002. It is expected that there will be a similar area to 2002 planted to winter wheat this year.

Estimated cereal production in 2002/03

Estimated cereal area in 2002/03 is shown in Tables 3a (GOL) and 3b (Mission), while Table 4a presents GOL estimates of cereal
production and 4b presents the cereal production estimates of the Mission.

Maize production is estimated by the Mission at 61 400 tonnes while sorghum and wheat production is estimated at 3 400 tonnes
and 24 300 tonnes respectively. The aggregate cereal production in 2002/03 is estimated at 89 100 tonnes. The accuracy of
Government cereal production figures for last year is highly questionable, and they appear to be biased upwards. The Mission
therefore uses last year’s FAO/WFP assessment mission figures for comparison. On this basis, production this year will be
66 percent higher than the low drought-affected production of last year.

Other crops

Beans and peas are extensively grown, largely for home consumption, but also for cash when grown in larger quantities. Most
households grow beans during the summer in rotation with cereals while peas are grown during winter using residual moisture
and any rain. Bean yields during the last cropping season were extremely low because of dry conditions at planting and again
at flowering in January, and will considerably reduce the dietary protein available to households. Other crops observed were
potatoes, pumpkins, sunflower, citrus, fruit trees, vegetables and alfalfa for dairy cows.

Livestock situation

The majority of rural households, (perhaps over 80 percent) own livestock, mainly cattle, sheep and goats; many also have
a horse, two or more donkeys and chickens. Table 6 shows numbers of livestock throughout the country in 2000/01.

Large herds of cattle were noted in lowland areas and flocks of sheep in the mountain areas in particular, but pastures are
deteriorating fast after poor rainfall during the latter part of the rainy season.

Livestock theft continues to be a major problem in the country. Thefts occur in and between villages, between districts, and
across borders. The situation is becoming increasingly dangerous, and is having a serious negative impact on household food
security. Livestock are a vital source of cash to purchase food when agricultural production is low, as it is this year; and
they also supply draught power for cultivation.

4. FOOD SUPPLY AND DEMAND SITUATION

Access to food and prices

Lesotho is a net importer of maize, wheat, pulses, dairy products and other food commodities. For maize, the main staple food,
imports represent 60-65 percent of national requirements. Other than for wheat, virtually all imports come from the Republic
of South Africa. In accordance with the SACU agreement, Lesotho does not impose duties on imports from RSA. Thus, food prices
in Lesotho are closely linked to those in RSA.

Inflationary pressures in 2002 were strong resulting in double-digit inflation for the first time in about 7 years. The average
annual inflation rate in 2002 was 11.9 percent compared to about 7.2 percent in 2001. The inflation rate largely rose due
to supply side factors such as the poor harvest of 2002, a significant depreciation of the Loti in the last quarter of 2001,
and a sustained increase in international oil prices. The food items that make up 36 percent of the consumer price index were
the main drives of the overall inflation. The food index rose by an average of 26.3 percent during the year compared to an
average increase of 6.7 percent in 2001. Timely Government interventions such as the Famine Relief Programme and food assistance
from the international community contributed to mitigating the food crisis of last year.

In early 2003 the prices of cereals, particularly maize, began to decline as the prospects of relatively better cereal harvest
improved at the regional level. The price of an 80 kg bag of sifted and un-sifted maize has continued to decline since January
2003 (Figure 3). It is expected that cereal prices will continue to decline over the course of the marketing year as millers
exhaust their stocks of cereals bought forward at very high prices last year. Furthermore, improved domestic cereal production
as well as a good maize harvest in South Africa will also contribute to the decline in prices.

The maize SAFEX (South Africa Futures Exchange) prices anticipating another good harvest have declined from a high of R 2045/tonne
in April 2002 to R 782/tonne in April 2003 (Figure 4). It is expected that the appreciation of the Rand will contribute to
reduced demand from other regional countries for South African commodities including cereals as they have become relatively
more expensive. Countries that normally import cereals from South Africa may look to international markets elsewhere. Swaziland
and Lesotho are the only regional countries that are not impacted by the appreciation of the Rand as their currencies are
pegged at par with it.

Figure 4. SAFEX Spot Prices for Maize (April 2002-March 2003)

Cereal supply-demand balance, 2003-04

The forecast of the cereal supply-demand situation (Table 7) for the marketing year 2003/04 (April/March) is based on the
following assumptions and Mission observations.

Farmers interviewed by the Mission stated that they had no stocks due to the poor harvest last year. Therefore, it has been
assumed that the opening on-farm stocks are zero. The Ministry of Industry, Trade and Marketing provided figures for commercial
opening stocks (1/04/03) for the current marketing year. The closing stocks are based on 2 weeks maize and one month of wheat
consumption.

The mid-marketing year 2003/04 population is estimated at 2 237 320 using a growth rate of 1.2 percent.

Per capita consumption rates per year used are: 127 kg for maize, 42 kg for wheat and 12 kg for sorghum.

Table 7 shows a cereal import requirement of 320 700 tonnes. The Mission estimates that the country has the capacity to import
commercially about 288 700 tonnes of cereals. This leaves a deficit of 32 000 tonnes that needs to be covered by food aid.
Taking into account the current WFP pipeline of 12 000 tonnes, there is still need of an additional 20 000 tonnes of external
food assistance.

A combination of better though below normal domestic cereal production and improved commercial import capacity suggests that
there will be no significant cereal shortages at the national level in the marketing year 2003/04. However, a key issue is
the physical and economic access to food for certain segments of the population. High unemployment and inflation rates, particularly
in the rural areas, coupled with the impact of HIV/AIDS on the labour force mean that certain population groups do not have
the purchasing power to access food in the market and, therefore, will need food assistance.

5. FOOD SECURITY AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

5.1 Main factors determining rural food security in Lesotho

Most rural households in Lesotho access their food primarily through own production and purchasing from the markets. At national
level Lesotho produces between 20 to 30 percent of its national food requirements and the rest is imported from South Africa.
The national import capacity, combined with household purchasing power, plays a major role in determining the food security
situation of the country. Frequent droughts and sharply declining employment opportunities combined with increasing staple
food prices have significantly reduced rural households’ access to food in recent years. For example between 1991 and 2001,
the number of Basotho working in South Africa has declined from 122 000 to 60 000. On the other hand, agricultural production
in the last three years has been significantly below average production for the country. The 2002/03 food crisis in Southern
Africa has caused food prices to rise dramatically in Lesotho and has eroded the purchasing power of many households. A comparison
in December 2002 of cereal prices in the other five countries affected by regional food crisis (Malawi, Mozambique, Swaziland,
Zambia and Zimbabwe) showed that Lesotho has the highest cereal prices. Although crop production improved throughout the country,
this year compared to last year, production is still below the five-year

The greatest threat to food security in Lesotho, however, is HIV/AIDS. According to the latest report on the global HIV/AIDS
epidemic (UNAIDS, Dec 2002) HIV/AIDS prevalence among adults (aged 15-49) in Lesotho is 31 percent. The Lesotho Vulnerability
Assessment Committee (LVAC) in the December 2002 Emergency Food Security assessment, which used chronic illness as a proxy
for HIV/AIDS, found that 23 percent of all the households sampled had a chronically ill member. Out of a population of 2.2
million people, there are approximately 73 000 orphaned children, most of whom have lost parents to HIV/AIDS . It is estimated
that by 2001, 25,000 Basotho had died of HIV/AIDS.. This trend is increasing and will have a long lasting impact on food security.
HIV/AIDS is affecting negatively both the agricultural sector and off-farm labour as well as the rural demographics. Reports
of a rising number of child farmers as well as households that can not plant due to lack of labour are increasing. At the
same time migrant labourers have the highest HIV/AIDS infection rates. The problem of HIV/AIDS is affecting every districts
with serious consequences, including:

Reduced household and community capacity to produce food;

Stripping households and communities of valuable labour power and reducing remittances from working family members;

Increased household expenditure on health care for the critically ill and funeral expenses;

Increased burden of child support by single mothers and grandparents; and

Increased number of orphans and child headed households

In short, HIV/AIDS, combined with decreasing employment opportunities and more frequent drought conditions, is undermining
the livelihoods of rural communities across Lesotho.

5.2 Review of emergency food aid in 2002/2003

WFP is currently implementing an emergency operation (EMOP) in Lesotho to support the drought affected people as well as other
vulnerable households including those affected by HIV/AIDS. The WFP country office has been providing food to the most food
insecure districts of Buthabuthe, Mohale’s Hoek, Quthing, Qacha’s Nek, Mafeteng, Thaba Tseka, Mokhotlong and Maseru rural.
In addition, WFP has been supporting emergency school feeding in Leribe and Berea districts. WFP has distributed a total of
30 000 tons of food, reaching 357 000 beneficiaries at the peak of the lean period.

In addition to the general food distribution, complementary activities that were started in January 2003, were designed to
provide vulnerable group feeding to 28 140 beneficiaries who were identified through Mother Child Health (MCH) and social
services networks.

This project has been providing dietary support to extremely vulnerable children under five years of age. Furthermore, food
assistance has been extended to 29 380 people living with HIV/AIDS and their families, primarily through home based care programmes
and community-based care systems. HIV/AIDS support activities have been undertaken in hospitals and health centres in collaboration
with NGOs that have expertise and experience in the areas of HIV/AIDS awareness and prevention programmes, such as CHAL and
World Vision, with the support of UNICEF and UNAIDS.

5.3 Household food security outlook for 2003/04

The food situation will remain critical for a large section of the population due to increasing HIV/AIDS infection, rising
unemployment rates and reduced agricultural production. As a result many poor rural households will continue to have limited
access to resources and food. The mission findings indicate that overall, 2003/04 is slightly better than the previous two
years in terms of food availability, for the following main reasons:

Better harvest in particular the 2002 winter wheat.

Anticipated lower cereal prices as currently prices in South Africa are much lower than at the same time in previous years.

Higher livestock and wool prices will improve cash income for households on the highlands where current livestock conditions
are favourable.

Stronger currency (Rand) which may improve the importing capacity of the country as well as the purchasing power of those
who have access to money.

However many households continue to have inadequate means and resources to access or buy food. In the absence of functioning
national safety nets or a welfare system targeted food aid will be necessary to meet the nutritional requirements of households
who otherwise will not have access to food. This will include: HIV/AIDS affected households; households that are heavily dependent
on own production and affected by a complete crop failure; households that have neither livestock nor off-farm income..

5.4 Relief food aid requirements in 2003/2004

The mission estimates that 125,000 people will need food assistance starting from July to a peak of 270 000 people from January
to March 2004, with a total emergency food aid requirement of 32 000 tonnes of cereals. Table 8 summarizes food aid needs
for the period April 2003 to March 2004. Households affected by crop failure and those affected by HIV/AIDS are the priority
groups for food assistance. The VAC assessments, which have been recently completed, will further clarify food aid needs by
food economic zone and socio-economic groups and will provide indicators for targeting HIV/AIDS affected households without
stigmatising them.

Given the sensitivity associated with HIV/AIDS innovative and new approaches of targeting must be used. It is also important
to use different modalities of assistance that could capture the food needs of the affected households. This could include:
school feeding with take home rations, MCH, orphans and households headed by children and others identified as appropriate.
The assistance for HIV/AIDS affected households will be implemented in all of Lesotho’s 10 districts.

Table 8. Number of People Requiring Food Assistance (2003-04)

Time Period

Population in Need ofassistance

Cereal Needsin MT

April-June 03

250 000

9 000

July-Sept 03

125 000

4 500

Oct-Dec 03

270 000

9 720

Jan-Mar 04

270 000

9 720

July 03 – Mar 04

270 000

32 940

5.5 Food basket considerations

Special nutritional considerations must be made in preparing the food basket to meet the nutritional needs of people with
HIV. Micronutrient deficiencies are believed to lead to the accelerated onset of AIDS and opportunistic infections leading
in turn to earlier death with catastrophic consequences, especially for children left behind. Preliminary outcomes from recent
technical consultations on the nutritional requirements of HIV infected people (Rome, May 2003) indicate a change from the
previously advocated increased protein need to emphasis on improved protein quality. As this will be difficult to achieve
in food aid rations in the absence of appropriate animal products, Food for Work (FFW) and Food for Training (FFT) projects
will be aimed at promoting will small animal rearing activities so as to make animal and dairy products increasingly available
at the household level.

In light of these nutritional considerations, WFP will continue to emphasize the importance of non-cereal food items in the
food basket and the fortification of food aid commodities. In practice this translates into the following:

Provision of a fortified blended food (such as CSB);

Purchase of, and in-kind requests for, fortified maize meal;

Milling and fortification of in-kind whole grain maize;

In-kind requests for a variety of cereals such as sorghum and bulgur wheat so as to enable variation in cereal consumption;

Potential enrichment of maize meal with soy flour (on trial basis).

6. LONG-TERM STRATEGY FOR SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT

The GOL support for farmers and agriculture by providing subsidised crop inputs and machinery is to be commended. However,
there is an urgent need to reorient this approach and to look for alternative interventions, which can be more helpful to
the farmer and at the same time be sustainable.

As presented in last year’s FAO/WFP Special Report, agriculture in Lesotho, which has struggled for many years is currently
facing a catastrophic situation. Crop production could cease altogether over large tracts of the country unless steps are
taken to reverse soil erosion, soil degradation and the decline in soil fertility. The foothill and mountain areas are unsuitable
for intensive cropping on the fragile and poorly structured soils and should concentrate on livestock production.

The physical soil conservation structures throughout the country originally designed and established when the soils were stable
and of good quality, have deteriorated alarmingly and erosion has escalated as soils have become more leached, less structured
and unable to hold moisture and support crop production. These terrace ridges/contours in use with the degraded soils now
commonplace throughout Lesotho need to be constructed much closer together in order to deal with the increased runoff and
erosion. However, this is a monumental task which would require massive funding. In addition, such physical runoff control
measures can only be used safely and effectively in support of optimum soil management, together with better crop and livestock
husbandry practices. Crop yields are in general very low because most of the cultivated soils have low levels of fertility,
high acidity, low organic matter content and poor moisture retention capacities.

Maize and sorghum cannot continue to be mono-cropped year after year. Rotations, fallows and mixed, relay and inter-cropping
practices with leguminous (particularly) and other crops must become part of the farming system. In 2002, the Mission visited
an area of land (15 hectares) in Berea District, originally earmarked for an irrigation scheme. The scheme did not materialise, but the land had been under
lucerne/fallow for three years; it was planted to maize and sorghum for that season by a number of individual small farmers.
The resultant crops were infinitely better than anywhere else in the country; estimated yield for the maize was 6.5-7 tonnes/ha
and for the sorghum 4-5 tonnes/ha. This also compared with maize variety trials conducted under good management nearby, with
estimated yields of only 2-2.5 tonnes/ha (one third of the yield), and local farmer yields of 0.4-0.5 tonnes/ha (one fifteenth
of the yield). The mission returned to the same area this year and estimated maize yields had fallen to 2.5-3 tonnes/ha and
sorghum yields to 1.5-2 tonnes/ha. Next year yields will fall still further, unless rotations and sustainable corrective practices
are implemented.

The concept of an enriched fallow (containing legumes) in the crop rotation cannot be overemphasised. Farmers should be encouraged
to produce a good grain crop each year on a portion of their land, utilising the best crop husbandry techniques available.
After harvest, a suitable fallow/forage or grain legume crop should be established to help improve soil fertility, soil structure
and soil moisture retention capacity, whilst the next food grain crop is grown on another portion of land in the same rotation.

As recommended in the Soil Fertility Initiative Document, prepared for Lesotho by FAO (1999), what is needed is a comprehensive
integrated and participatory approach that takes advantage of synergies of practices at field level, offering production,
economic and conservation benefits. This approach would emphasise building of soil organic matter levels through proper use
of inorganic fertilizers, manure and ash, coupled with intercropping of improved cereals and legumes, conservation farming
and agro-forestry practices. The overall benefits are the improvement of soil structure and fertility, food security, cash
incomes, dietary diversity and protection of the environment. The improved soil structure and fertility result in increased
efficiency in plant nutrients uptake and water storage, thus enhancing the profitability of crop production as well as enabling
crops to withstand dry periods and drought.

Another major issue is that the majority of farmers around the country are unable to follow any of these initiatives or improve
their crop husbandry practices, because they are isolated and lack proper advice. Agricultural extension workers very rarely
visit to offer agronomic advice except for maize or demonstrate new techniques for farmers. The agricultural extension service
in the villages is totally inadequate – poorly informed about rotations and alternative crops, very understaffed, lacking
in motivation and short of transport.

The following important initiatives were presented in the last year’s report:

Land Tenure Reform

Watershed Management

Conservation Agriculture Technology

Improved seed production and assistance for the livestock sector

As far as the mission has ascertained, there has been no start made on any of these issues.

To these interventions should be added the following:

Education/training (dissemination of information): Farmers all around the country cannot improve their crop husbandry practices because they lack proper advice. Extension workers
attached to District Agricultural Offices are not well informed about alternative crops, crop rotations and the latest technologies
and crop husbandry practices and cannot advise farmers correctly. Demonstration farms (3-5 ha) should be developed in each
of the ten districts in Lesotho, with demonstration plots (0.5 ha) in as many areas as possible within each district. These
units should be used to introduce sustainable farming concepts (rotations with grain and forage legumes, inter-cropping, mulching,
manuring) for improved crop, soil and rainwater management to farmers and extension workers. Visual impact is all-important;
farmers need to see the benefits and advantages for themselves and extension workers need to have concrete and proven technologies
to present to their farmers. Once the soil, the deteriorating and finite resource for agriculture in Lesotho is returned to
health, farmers will be able to produce more maize from a smaller area, rotate with other crops and have a sustainable system
for the future.

An incentive scheme to encourage farmers to grow alternative crops to maize/grain crops: Reconsider the input subsidy scheme for maize, and instead introduce suitable incentives to encourage farmers to grow crops other than maize in their farming systems. Farmers should be encouraged with these incentives,
to plant a third of their arable area to a suitable grain/forage legume each year. In this way a regular rotation of crops
will be introduced, and it will become abundantly clear that the same quantity of maize can be produced with a higher yield
from a much smaller area. This crop diversification will broaden their farming base and open new marketing outlets for their
produce, as well as allowing an integrated system for livestock production to develop.

Improved market outlets and the development of agricultural processing industries: The GOL should encourage farmers to move away from their largely subsistence farming approach, and into the production of
saleable off-farm products to generate a cash income. The development of agricultural processing industries will be an important
part of this strategy, for instance.

Potatoes grow extremely well in such areas as Qacha’s Nek, but marketing is a huge problem. If a potato chip factory were
established there with GoL assistance, a useful industry could be started. Employment opportunities would be created in the
area and a dynamic integrated system for groups of farmers would develop.

Sunflower and soya beans both grow well in Lesotho, but have no market in the country. If a factory were built for extracting
vegetable oil from these two crops, farmers would be encouraged to grow them. Employment opportunities would be created, and
apart from the vegetable oil, useful protein-rich cakes for livestock would be produced.

This report is prepared on the responsibility of the FAO and WFP Secretariats with information from official and unofficial
sources. Since conditions may change rapidly, please contact the undersigned for further information if required.

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