09Nov12

Syria opposition seen uniting after US, Qatari push

Syria's fractious opposition, under pressure from the United States and Qatar
to unite, looked likely on Friday to agree to form an inclusive new opposition
body that would serve as a unity government if Bashar al-Assad falls.

Qatar, which has bankrolled the opposition to Assad and played a leading role
in Arab diplomacy against him, is hosting an opposition meeting, with senior
U.S. diplomats hovering on the sidelines, prodding the opposition to make a
deal.

Rebel advances on the ground and increasing economic and social
disintegration within Syria have added to the pressure on the opposition to
form a body that can rule after Assad.

A source inside meetings that lasted into the early hours of Friday morning
said members of the Syrian National Council (SNC), a group made up mainly
of exiled politicians, had shifted views and were coming to accept the need to
form a wider body.

"We will not leave today without an agreement," the source said. "The body
will be the sole legitimate representative of the Syrian people. Once they get
international recognition, there will be a fund for military support."

The new body would mirror the Transitional National Council that united the
opposition to Muammar Gaddafi in Libya last year and then took power after
he was ousted, the source suggested.

"They will create a 'temporary government', which could take control of
embassies around the world and take Syria's seat at the U.N., because the
regime would have lost its legitimacy."

An outline agreement could see the SNC and other opposition figures agree
on a 60-member political assembly, or congress, as well as a military and a
judicial council.

The SNC, which has previously been the main opposition group on the
international stage, may have around a third of the seats in the new body but
would otherwise lose much of its influence.

Though it was not yet clear whether the groups meeting in Doha will name
members to the new body or broach the thorny issue of its leadership, its
creation would mark an advance long sought by the United States and Qatar.

Foreign countries that oppose Assad are determined to push Syrian opposition
figures to cooperate, which means bridging gaps between exiles and those
working in Syria, and between liberals and increasingly powerful Islamist
militants.

The West and its regional allies worry that were Assad to fall before the
opposition unites behind a credible body capable of leading the country,
increasingly powerful Islamist militia would quickly take Syria over.

"Get a Move On"

Qatar's prime minister told delegates on Thursday to "get a move on" in a
closed meeting in a Doha five-star hotel.

"The Qataris are not to going to let them leave here in failure after all this
investment," said a diplomatic source on the sidelines of the Doha meetings.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton last week called for overhauling the
opposition amid eroding faith in the SNC, saying there needed to be
representation of those "on the frontlines and dying". Britain's Prime Minister
David Cameron also signaled international pressure to unite the opposition.

What began in March 2011 as a protest movement for reforms following
uprisings in Egypt and Tunisia has spiraled into a civil war that has killed more
than 32,000 people.

While the opposition argues, rebels have advanced, firing rockets at the
presidential palace in Damascus this week.

Turkey said on Friday that 8,000 more refugees had fled across the frontier in
the last 24 hours.

The International Committee of the Red Cross said on Thursday it could not
keep pace with the needs of civilians.

Assad told Russia Today television on Thursday he would "live and die in
Syria", comments that echoed the words of other Arab leaders before they lost
power last year.

Obama Re-election Adds to Pressure for Deal

"Regional political developments as well as rapid military changes on the
ground have caused a renewed sense of urgency within the SNC," said
Michael Stephens, a Doha-based analyst with Britain's Royal United Services
Institute think tank.

"A failure to reach an agreement would leave them woefully unprepared to
take power should the unthinkable happen and Assad fall."

SNC members have previously resisted joining a wider body which might
dilute their influence.

Calls for a new, wider body have been led by dissident businessman Riad
Seif, prompting other SNC members to denounce him this week as a "U.S.
agent". However, senior SNC member Burhan Ghalioun said the atmosphere
at the talks was "positive".

"We all agree that we don't want to walk away from this meeting in failure,"
Ghalioun said on Thursday night, signaling the shift in the SNC's position
towards agreeing to a deal.

Pressure on the opposition to unite increased further this week after the
re-election of U.S. president Barack Obama, which removed uncertainty about
the U.S. position.

A diplomat familiar with the talks said that throughout the week the SNC had
shifted towards taking international pressure more seriously, especially after
Obama's victory.

"The Americans felt a swagger after the results of the election and Obama's
win. No one can dismiss them anymore, because they are staying," he said,
adding that a State Department official sat in on Thursday meetings.

"But reaching a real deal over the initiative will also depend on who joins this
assembly from the SNC, which will have no real influence after that."

The SNC is due on Friday to complete elections to its executive council and
choose a new leader, before continuing talks with Seif, representatives of
rebel groups and other political factions on forming the new assembly.

The first diplomatic source sounded a note of caution.

"Yes there will be an agreement, but is it sustainable? Is it well thought through
and well prepared? Will it fall through later on? The future will tell," he said.

[Source: By Rania El Gamal and Regan Doherty, Reuters, Doha, 09Nov12]

This document has been published on 12Nov12 by the Equipo Nizkor and Derechos Human Rights. In accordance with
Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a
prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational
purposes.