Obama Could Lose

Well into 1992, even as economic anxiety was soaring and unemployment was approaching 8 percent (a significant jump from the start of his presidency), George H.W. Bush was still seen as a good bet for reelection because of the supposed weakness of that year's Democratic field. Eventually, Democrats settled on Bill Clinton, who finally pulled ahead of Bush in July — and then never looked back. (Note: Ross Perot had nothing to do with Bush's defeat that November; it was the economy that sunk the president.) Rest assured, if the economy doesn't improve — or gets worse — the GOP will be well-positioned to oust Obama in 2012, provided the party doesn't nominate a fringe candidate.