Basketball's Mr. April

Anthony Owns the Season's Last Month, but the Playoffs Are Another Story

By

Chris Herring

April 9, 2013 9:32 p.m. ET

Knicks star Carmelo Anthony has long been maligned for his lack of playoff success. Having advanced out of the first round just once in nine seasons, he stands out as one of the most accomplished players to have never reached the NBA Finals.

But perhaps the strangest thing about Anthony's playoff struggles in May is this: They almost always took place after he had dominated the league during the month of April.

ENLARGE

April is far from the cruelest month for Carmelo Anthony, whose teams had won 73% of their regular-season April games entering Tuesday.
Associated Press

Over his 10-year career, April has been Anthony's best month statistically. In his 80 April games entering Tuesday's home date with Washington, he has shot 49% from the field, made 40% from three-point range and scored 27 points per game.

And for Anthony, who had helped lead the Knicks to a 12-game win streak entering Tuesday, the April reign has reached new heights. Through the first four games this month, he has shot a blistering 61% overall and 56% from distance, and logged almost 42 points per game.

"It's April, man. It's time to go," Anthony said. He credited a healthy right knee—which he had drained in March—and a renewed focus with the playoffs around the corner as reasons for playing better.

But it isn't just Anthony's individual statistics that stand out whenever April rolls around. His teams usually manage to win more in that month, too.

Anthony and his teams have won 73% of their regular-season games in April—considerably more than the 58% they win in all other months combined. That differential is the sixth-steepest winning-percentage increase of any active NBA player, according to Stats LLC.

But unlike the five people in front of him on the list—which Knicks teammate Tyson Chandler leads—Anthony's offensive numbers, in terms of efficiency and production, are at their best in April.

Beyond extra effort or concentration, it isn't clear why Anthony plays his best ball in April. Unlike Knicks sixth man J.R. Smith, who saw an enormous boost in efficiency in March when he began driving to the basket more frequently, Anthony's shots over his career have been from slightly further away (11 feet 7 inches, up from 11 feet 4 inches) during the fourth month of the year, according to Stats. Fewer of his April shots come near the rim (35%, down from 37%), and more (32%, up from 30%) are from the difficult midrange area 16 to 23 feet out.

And a soft April schedule doesn't explain it either. On average, Anthony's teams have played tougher foes in April—when 55% of those teams made the playoffs and collectively owned a 50.6% winning percentage—than in earlier months, when 49.6% of teams made the playoffs and teams owned a 49.6% winning percentage. (Before Tuesday, all four of the Knicks' opponents this month were playoff teams.)

All of this raises a question, though: If Anthony and his teams peak in April, why do they struggle so much once they reach the playoffs shortly afterward? As it stands, only eight players throughout league history—Dave Bing, Yao Ming, Bob Lanier, Alex English, Vince Carter, Tracy McGrady, Grant Hill and Steve Nash—have made more All-Star Game appearances than Anthony (six) without ever reaching the NBA finals.

Two things stand out when looking at Anthony's teams in postseason play: They have typically been a lower seed than their opponent (six out of nine times), and as a result, they have often drawn an opponent that has an elite defense.

On average, Anthony's teams have been knocked out by an opponent that ranks fourth in the league defensively. As such, he has shot 41.9% overall in the postseason—down from 45.6% in the regular season.

But this time, the Knicks are guaranteed a higher seed, which—like their recent hot streak—will raise expectations on Anthony and his team.

"I think this is when the season really starts for [Anthony]," teammate said Jason Kidd of Anthony's April mind-set. "It's important to him because he knows the playoffs are what we're judged on. And he wants us to be the last team standing."

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