New research shows how weather is linked to incubation periods of the dengue virus within mosquitos.

Given its close link with both temperature and rainfall, it is possible to forecast outbreaks of dengue. But for such disease forecasting to be effective, it should be based on models specific for different climatic zones in the country, a new study has shown.

Scientists have reached this conclusion after evaluating the relationship of climatic factors in the spread of dengue in different climatic zones in the country – Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Gujarat and Kerala. They focused on changes in a factor called extrinsic incubation period or EIP of the dengue virus by taking into account daily and monthly mean temperatures in these areas.

The EIP is the time taken for incubation of the virus in the mosquito. During this period, after the mosquito draws virus rich blood meal, the virus escapes the gut and passes through the mosquito’s body and reaches it salivary glands. Once this happens, the mosquito is infectious and capable of transmitting the virus to a human host.

It has been found that climatic conditions play an important role in EIP. Lower temperatures (17–18 °C) result in longer EIPs thereby leading to decreased virus transmission. With increasing temperatures, feeding increases because of enhanced metabolism of the mosquito, leading to shorter EIPs. Even a five-day decrease in the incubation period can raise the transmission rate by three times, and with an increase in temperature from 17°C to 30 °C, dengue transmission increases fourfold. However, a further increase in temperature beyond 35°C is detrimental to mosquito survival.

The study has been jointly conducted by the Indian Institute of Chemical Technology in Hyderabad, the National Institute of Pharmaceutical Education and Research in Guwahati, in collaboration with scientists at the University of Liverpool.

The researchers observed that except for Gujarat which comprises of arid regions, there was a strong correlation between rainfall and dengue disease burden. They propose that an increase in breeding grounds for mosquitoes is a major reason for this finding.

The study found that Kerala being warm (temperature range of 23.5-30 °C) and wet and with short EIPs (9-14 days) experiences the highest number of dengue cases. It has been found that EIP is the shortest during the monsoon season in most states and therefore there is an enhanced risk of dengue during this time.

Researchers say it is important to take into account the dynamic EIP estimates in different regions in assessing disease burden. “This climate-based dengue forecasting model could help health authorities to assess the disease intensity in a geographic region, based on that they can plan disease control operations well in advance and optimize the use of resources meticulously,” said Dr Srinivasa Rao Mutheneni of the Indian Institute of Chemical Technology, who led the study.

With changes in temperature affecting the EIP of the virus, future changes in the climate might have a substantial effect on dengue and other vector-borne disease burden in India. “Though such methods are in vogue for disease control operations, we are still in the initial stages of implementation of such strategic control methods,” Dr Rao told India Science Wire. Factors such as population density and migration also need to be included for future risk assessment studies.

The research team included Srinivasa Rao Mutheneni, Andrew P Morse, Cyril Caminade and Suryanaryana Murty Upadhyayula. The study was published in the journal Emerging Microbes & Infections.

The national emblem of India; an open parachute and crossed lances – this triad of symbols representing the nation, excellence in training and valor respectively are held together by an elite title in the Indian army – The President’s Bodyguard (PBG).

The PBG badge is worn by one of the oldest cavalry units in the India army. In 1773, Governor Warren Hastings, former Governor General of India, handpicked 50 troopers. Before independence, this unit was referred to by many titles including Troops of Horse Guards and Governor General’s Body Guards (GGBG). In 1950, the unit was named The President’s Bodyguard and can be seen embroidered in the curved maroon shoulder titles on their current uniforms.

The President’s Bodyguard’s uniform adorns itself with proud colours and symbols of its 245 year-old-legacy. Dating back to 1980, the ceremonial uniform consists of a bright red long coat with gold girdles and white breeches, a blue and gold ceremonial turban with a distinctive fan and Napoleon Boots with spurs. Each member of the mounted unit carries a special 3-meter-long bamboo cavalry lance, decorated by a red and white pennant. A sheathed cavalry sabre is carried in in the side of the saddle of each trooper.

While common perception is that the PBG mainly have ceremonial duties such as that of being the President’s escort during Republic Day parade, the fact is that the members of the PBG are highly trained. Handpicked by the President’s Secretariat from mainstream armored regiments, the unit assigns a task force regularly for Siachen and UN peace keeping operations. Moreover, the cavalry members are trained combat parachutists – thus decorating the PBG uniform with a scarlet Para Wings badge that signifies that these troopers are a part of the airborne battalion of the India Army.

Since their foundation, the President’s Guard has won many battle honors. In 1811, they won their first battle honor ‘Java’. In 1824, they sailed over Kalla Pani for the first Burmese War and earned the second battle honour ‘Ava’. The battle of Maharajapore in 1843 won them their third battle honor. Consequently, the PBG fought in the main battles of the First Sikh War and earned four battle honours. Post-independence, the PBG served the country in the 1962 Indo-China war and the 1965 Indo-Pak war.

The PBG, one of the senior most regiments of the Indian Army, is a unique unit. While the uniform is befitting of its traditional and ceremonial role, the badges that augment those threads, tell the story of its impressive history and victories.

How have they managed to maintain their customs for more than 2 centuries? A National Geographic exclusive captures the PBG’s untold story. The documentary series showcases the discipline that goes into making the ceremonial protectors of the supreme commander of the Indian Armed Forces.

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The National Geographic exclusive is a landmark in television and is being celebrated by the #untoldstory contest. The contest will give 5 lucky winners an exclusive pass to the pre-screening of the documentary with the Hon’ble President of India at the Rashtrapati Bhavan. You can also nominate someone you think deserves to be a part of the screening. Follow #UntoldStory on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram to participate.

This article was produced by Scroll marketing team on behalf of National Geographic and not by the Scroll editorial team.