POPULATION

POPULATION If global fertility rates stabilise at the “replacement” level of just over two children per woman, the world's population will expand from 5.7 billion people in 1995 to 9.4 billion in 2050 and will reach a maximum of almost 11 billion people by around 2200, according to the latest projections prepared by the United Nations. However, small differences in fertility rates could make a huge difference to the future size of the world's population. A “high-fertility scenario” of between 2.5 and 2.6 children a woman, on average, would result in a world population of 27 billion people in 2150, while a “low-fertility scenario” (between 1.35 and 1.6 children a woman) would imply that the world's population would reach a maximum of 7.7 billion people in 2050 and then fall to 3.6 billion by 2150 (less than its level in 1950

POPULOUS REGIONS Over the next half century Africa's population will almost treble under the “medium-fertility scenario”. In 1995 700m people lived in Africa; by 2050 there will be just over 2 billion. China's population will rise much more slowly from 1.2 billion to 1.5 billion. With a population of 1.53 billion people, India will have more inhabitants than China in 50 years' time. Europe is the only region where the population is expected to decline.