Foreign investors are benefiting from Russia’s accession to the World Trade Organisation. According to Michael Harms, chairman of the German-Russian Chamber of Commerce, the increased presence of foreign companies in Russia will lead to Russians having to make their businesses more efficient. Foreign capital is required to invigorate the Russian economy. Harms also expects that Russia’s accession to the WTO will be positive for Germany’s specialised industries, on which Russian enterprises are dependent. Harms said: “The long term attractiveness of the market would be even greater if bureaucracy and corruption were tackled. The lack of legal security and the complex tax system are huge problems indeed.”

Political analyst Georgy Bovt argues that the Russian-US ‘reset’ has run out of gas. The relative restraint that characterised Obama’s position on human rights and democracy in Russia during his first term might give way to a harsher approach, and he may be more likely to classify the regime of President Vladimir Putin as autocratic. Rapprochement with an autocratic government is possible when there is a strong economic component in the bilateral relationship, as with China. But this component is woefully lacking here. Since the reset has run out of gas, Obama will likely become less tolerant of Russia’s anti-US rhetoric and stances in the global arena. This means that we will probably see a cooling of US-Russian relations during Obama’s second term.

Mark Nuckols, a professor of law and business at Moscow State University, outlines how Obama’s second term can help the Russian-US ‘reset’. Obama has no particular political or personal interest in needlessly antagonising Russia. Some hawks in Congress still find it advantageous to promote legislation designed to provoke the Kremlin. During a second Obama administration, there is a good chance that the Jackson-Vanik law penalising Russian trade will finally be discarded. What’s more, Obama can hardly consider the proposed Magnitsky law, aimed at penalising Russian bureaucrats for human rights abuses, as being vital to US national interests on the same level as nuclear weapons reduction.

The US-Russian reset is likely to lose momentum. Alexei Pushkov, the hard-line chairman of the State Duma’s International Affairs Committee, said that Obama’s victory meant a “less aggressive” US foreign policy than if Mitt Romney would have won. But Pushkov declared Obama’s reset policy a failure and called on the administration to turn a new leaf, saying: “If you look at the reset as an attempt to raise relations to a new quality and to move geopolitical interests closer, then it has failed.”

Russians have taken a conciliatory tone in speaking of US President Barack Obama’s reelection. The country’s top leaders quickly offered congratulations, and analysts predicted improved relations. Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said: “Obama is an understandable and predictable partner.” He added: “There have been both successes and failures in the reset of Russia-US relations, and this policy should be carried on.”

Bulgaria has approved the final step allowing it to build a stretch of the South Stream gas pipeline from Russia to Europe. However, the Bulgarian government insisted on lower-priced gas deliveries from Moscow in exchange. The government has long tried to use its participation in South Stream as a bargaining chip to secure lower gas prices from Gazprom when the current contracts expire in 2013, but it had never before acknowledged it publicly. Bulgaria is totally dependent on Russian gas deliveries via Ukraine for its annual consumption of about 3 billion cubic metres of gas.

Rosneft is planning to complete the TNK-BP acquisition in two stages. The first of these – the deal with BP – is more advanced than the second agreement with the AAR consortium billionaires. It remains a possibility that Rosneft could close the BP transaction before completing the second half of the deal, giving it access to extra cash flow from TNK-BP.

Bankers have said that Rosneft is in talks with up to 20 banks about loans totalling $33.5 billion to back its $55 billion acquisition of rival TNK-BP. Around 10 banks, likely to include three US banks, three Japanese, a couple of British and one or two French banks, were expected to commit around $2.25 billion each. Other international banks were also likely to commit smaller amounts, which could push the total loan size to $35 billion.

Eastern Europe editor Neil Buckley says that Russia is tightening the bearhugs on oil and gas. He says that whatever is driving it, the sweeping reconsolidation of hydrocarbon assets under state control is bad news for Russia’s oil industry, and, by extension, its economy. The worse news is that it appears to be far from over.

Russian investors are waiting to buy up Greek government-owned enterprises, particularly in the energy sector, that are to be privatised due to the country’s economic crisis. While the EU wants Greece to reduce its government debt through privatisations, it is concerned that the country’s energy infrastructure could fall into Russian hands. In light of the fact that the EU is very critical of Gazprom’s activities in Europe, a tactical move by the company could be to buy itself into the European energy market.