Dodgers, Loney Avoid Arbitration

The Dodgers avoided arbitration with James Loney, agreeing to a one-year, $4.875MM deal, according to CAA, the first baseman's agency on Twitter. As MLBTR's Arb Tracker shows, Loney had filed for $5.25MM while the Dodgers offered $4.7MM.

Loney posted a .267/.329/.395 line last year. He doesn't have much power for a first baseman – his career-high in homers is 15 – but the former first rounder has been durable enough to stay on the field for 158 games or more from 2008-10. That consistency, plus Loney's RBI totals (he has 88 or more in each of the past three seasons) no doubt helped him negotiate with the Dodgers.

The sides settled slightly below the midpoint, but Loney will earn more than comparable players Kevin Kouzmanoff, Corey Hart and B.J. Upton did for their second year of arbitration eligibility, as CAA points out. Loney's relatively high salary makes him a non-tender candidate for the 2011-12 offseason, though the Dodgers can retain him through arbitration if they so choose.

Only six arbitration eligible players remain unsigned for 2011. Players and teams have each won one of the two arbitration hearings to take place so far this offseason.

Loney is going to be on my list of “Former Top Prospects Who Need to Breakout Now or Never” this year.

I predict if he can’t make progress this year, he’ll leave the organization one way or another by 2012. He’s just getting too expensive in terms of MLB service time, while still being useful in the majors. Personally I think leaving Chavez Ravine will benefit him. His home park obviously masks a lot of his power, esp. earlier in his career.

I think he needed to last year.. instead he regressed. Hopefully now he’s just a spotfiller until Sands can take over later this year or next year. Unless he somehow manages to actually find his power though I don’t see him taking a step back last year to taking two steps forward this year..

If he keeps his average at .300 or above like he did for the first half last year, continues to knock double after double, and can raise his RBI’s to 100… I will be completely happy with Loney despite his inevitable low HR total.

I liked .300+ avg Loney though he dropped well below that last year in the second half. Hopefully he won’t be hitting in the #4 hole as much as he did last year so I don’t see his RBI total going up any, but maybe it will help his average

Well, I actually don’t put Joba on that list, only because I think what he is today is pretty much what he is, that is, a reliever with a pretty good strikeout quality fastball. He battles command between his slider and fastball, which will probably get better over time, and he might have a few strong above-average years here and there. At least with Joba, with all of his ups and downs, he still remains a serviceable and productive majorleaguer who will have a decent MLB career of some form. Whether that’s as a Yankee is probably unlikely at some point, but he is a majorleaguer.

I only put Loney on my “list” because, it’s arguable about him having an MLB career at all. As soon as his service time starts becoming a cost-liability and starts working against him, clubs might opt either: A. Find a cheaper solution, or B. Give the next the young up-and-comer a shot. If he doesn’t reach his promise, he at least needs to be able to perform just well enough that he offsets his cost, and betters the performance of either of those other options. We’re already hearing longtime Loney-supporters starting to back off a little and willing to give the prospect(s) behind him an opportunity.

That said, the question to me isn’t if the talent is real or not. It obviously is. The question is where is the right opportunity. Is he gonna be another Dallas McPherson and eventually find himself out of chances? Or, is he going to be another Carlos Peña who will find his stride after he finds the right organization, circumstances, and ballpark?

We don’t know if either of these guys will hit even two bucks in the bigs. Neither one has even played at triple-A level yet. A little early to be penciling them into a major league lineup, don’t you think?

Sure. That’s why I said “penciled in.” But I didn’t miss that you are anticipating two low-A prospects to be ready for starting positions next year. Seems like a formula for disappointment to me, since so many top prospects wash out even before they make the bigs, or become targets for criticism when they do, but don’t live up to the fans’ wildest expectations. Like James Loney, for example.

Michael Young’s numbers are far better and he doesn’t ground into as many DP’s as Loney. And those numbers are more than acceptable for a middle infielder but not for a first baseman. They should give him a catchers glove.

i agree with your argument, notsureifsrs, but you need to check your math. player B has a .160 ISO, not .148. is that young btw? i could always go check on fangraphs… but really who does research themselves these days? blanket statements are all the rage right now.