The US's show of force toward North Korea may be 'just adding fuel to the fire'

US
Vice President Mike Pence at the border village of Panmunjom,
South Korea, Monday, April 17, 2017. Panmunjom has separated the
two Koreas since the Korean War.AP
Photo/Lee Jin-man

US Vice President Mike Pence visited the demilitarized zone between North
and South Korea on Monday, emphasizing that the US's strategic
patience with North Korea was over and that the US was
considering the use of military force.

North Korean Vice-Foreign Minister Han Song Ryol shot back hours
later, saying if "the US is planning a military attack against
us, we will react with a nuclear pre-emptive strike by our own
style and method," and threatened "all-out war" in response to
any US action.

The exchange, while troubling, has become familiar since North
Korea's nuclear and missile-testing programs accelerated, and
President Donald Trump has taken a harder line against the Kim
regime.

While experts have said with near unanimity that a US military
strike on North Korea would present grave danger or an outright
nuclear catastrophe, another option frequently brandished by
Trump has been leveraging the US's trade relationship with China,
North Korea's biggest backer, to act.

But the US may be overestimating China's pull with Kim Jong Un,
according to Jenny Town, the assistant director of the US-Korea
Institute and a managing editor at 38 North, a website that
brings together experts on North Korea.

"China and North Korea relations have not been great to begin
with," Town told Business Insider. Unlike Kim's father and
predecessor, Kim Jong Un has never been to China to meet with
Chinese President Xi Jinping, Town said.

North
Korean leader Kim Jong Un at the opening of the Ryomyong
residential area, Thursday, April 13, 2017, in
Pyongyang.AP Photo/Wong
Maye-E

"In China they’re very frustrated," said Town. "North Korea has
progressed further than what they’re willing to accept" and the
provocations coming out of North Korea make the relationship very
difficult for the Chinese to manage.

Though White House spokesman Sean Spicer said on Monday that the
burgeoning relationship between Xi and Trump has paid off, Town said that the US calling for
China to simply shut off the Kim regime from trade is "a naive
oversimplistic view of the situation."

Town said it would be a mistake to assume that North Korea would
react to China shutting off trade by crawling back to the table.
North Korea could potentially find other trade partners, and even
retaliate against China.

"Floods of refugees, some kinds of military coup ... the Chinese
aren’t ready yet to take those risks," said Town.

But while Trump tries to force China's hand against North Korea,
where their leverage may be been overestimated, he refuses to
give an inch on the US's end.

This
Sept. 2, 2014, photo shows an entrance in Sinuiju, from North
Korea toward China to the "Korea China Friendship Bridge" — the
old bridge connecting the two socialist states over the Yalu
River.AP

The US lately has completely dismissed unconditional talks with
North Korea, instead seeming to float military options with
increasing urgency. The US has an aircraft carrier off North
Korea's coast and has deployed additional missile defenses to
South Korea.

"They need to have some level of exploratory talks," Town said of
the Trump administration, adding that they could be undergoing
back-channel or secret talks. "Until you get to the table you
don’t even know what’s on the table."

The testy back and forth on Monday between Pence and Han, and the
decades of threats flying back and forth suggests that a new
approach may be warranted.

"Going straight towards threatening military options is just
adding fuel to the fire," Towns said.