Over the last couple of days, I've looked at all of the forwards chosen in the 2012 and 2011 entry drafts. Today, we're moving on to the great Taylor v. Tyler debate of 2010. Two years out, those two players are still at the top of the pile, but many of the others in the top ten aren't yet playing in the NHL. If you've read the methodological explanations already, feel free to skip down to the results.

In the chart below, I've taken each player's goals, assists and points, converted them to a "per game" rate, multiplied them by the league equivalency number, and then expressed them as an "NHL equivalency" assuming an 82-game NHL season. As you may have guessed, each league has a different equivalency number. I've used this article for the translations from the KHL (multiply offense by 0.83), SEL (0.78), CZE (0.74), FNL (0.54), NCAA (0.41), WHL (0.30), OHL (0.30) and QMJHL (0.28),and this article for the translations from the USHL (0.27), AJHL (0.16), and BCHL (0.14). With these players getting older, there are now only a few leagues that have drafted players but no translations, and if you're playing there (ECHL, minor European league), that's probably a bad sign.

Before I go ahead and put up the chart, a bit more explanation is needed. Not all of the players drafted in 2010 were actually the same age; in fact, several players had already passed through the draft at least once (and sometimes twice). All of these older players are included in the chart but are marked in yellow. There were also some players who were first eligible for the draft in 2009 or 2010 but weren't drafted until 2011 or 2012. I've also included these players in the chart with "N/A" written in the "Draft Number" column. If 2010 was the player's first year of eligibility, the yellow highlighting is removed.

The "Draft Number" column is not the player's actual draft position but the player's position among forwards. So, for example, the Carolina Hurricanes drafted Jeff Skinner 7th overall, but he was the 6th forward to be drafted, so his "Draft Number" in the chart is "6". Some of these players have also gone unsigned or been traded, so I'll just note that the "Team" listed is the one that drafted the player.

These numbers may also be slightly different than the NHLE numbers you may have seen elsewhere for these players. That's because I include both regular season and playoff games in the results, which I think probably gives a better estimate. None of these teams are playing a balanced schedule anyway, so it seems to me that including the larger sample of games is the way to go.

The "Rank" column is organized by NHLE. Anyone without an NHLE ranking is placed at the bottom in the order that they were drafted.

Points of Interest:

There are quite a few very promising prospects who spent last season playing in one of the best European leagues. If those players all come over (Tarasenko, Kuznetsov, Jarnkrok, Granlund, Fasth, and Larsson), it will be interesting to see whether or not their offense holds up. All six of those players are given over forty points by the translations, something that just 138 forwards achieved last season. Will these players all arrive as top six forwards? Probably not. Fasth in particular seems doubtful based on the small sample of games in 2011-12 and his past performance.

One of the problems with the NHLE system is that it only captures the performance of the "winners", i.e., the players who come directly to the NHL. At this time last year, Ondrej Palat, Curtis Hamilton, Tye McGinn, and Ryan Martindale were all among the top twenty-five, putting up big numbers in the CHL. None of them came directly to the NHL, and all of them struggled in the pro game. Palat survived the best of that group, finishing 94th on this list after posting 39 points in 79 AHL games. Most of the other junior players will join these four in the AHL next season, and that year of AHL experience will likely push this group back up the chart (though probably not back into the top twenty-five).

It is helpful, though, in reminding us to take the numbers put up by the CHL kids with a grain of salt. No matter how good Mark Stone looks playing in the OHL, the step to pro hockey is substantial, and not everyone is going to make it.

But not everyone makes a stop in the AHL. There are few other top picks well down this list who are already playing in the NHL. It's safe to say that all of Ryan Johansen, Nino Niederreiter, Brett Connolly and (to a lesser extent) Alexander Burmistrov weren't quite as good as their teams had hoped offensively in 2011-12, but all four have already played more NHL games than some of the men listed above them ever will.

The St. Louis Blues had a very successful draft with two players in the top ten. Adding Jaden Schwartz and Vladimir Tarasenko to an already excellent forward group is going to make this team very difficult to defend for at least the next four or five years (Backes, Oshie, Perron, Steen, Stewart and Berglund are all twenty-eight years old or younger).

Some players made a huge leap this season. Chris Wagner, for example, scored just 19 points in 41 games in his freshman year at Colgate, but upped that 51 points in 38 games as a sophomore. Other players who made a big leap include Brock Nelson and Nick Bjugstad, both of whom likely got much more ice time as sophomores than they did as frehsmen coming out of high school hockey.

Seguin is a very good player, got more ice time last year and put up some good numbers. But after two years, I still think Oilers made the better decision by picking Hall. However, would of loved to have them both.

Taylor Hall is one trampoline bounce away from being a vegetable. Seriously, dude plays like he's a man among boys and pays the price. It's good to have confidence but not to the point where you make dangerous plays and do stupid sh!t.

He gets all jacked up and fights Derek Dorsett (great idea, btw), and takes a high ankle sprain. Misses 17 games. Not an injury that is easy to recover from and tends to be re-occurring.

No helmet during warmups and takes a skate to the face (was he just laying on the ice, high on blow, telling people to cut him because he couldn't feel it?). Many stitches, misses a couple games.

Shoulder injury on a hit, requiring surgery, and out for 5-6 months. Also, was concussed by Sarich on a routine hit.

Do we see a pattern here? Hall has taken several major injuries in only 2 years of NHL play. Two more years and he might be a vegetable.

Nino was in over his head a little (like most rookies) and had terrible luck in 2011-12. During five-on-five play, his on-ice shooting percentage was just 0.8%, which won't do your scoring stats any favors.

There's been a lot of talk around FlamesNation how Calgary's drafting has improved the last 2 drafts. This is somewhat verfified here as there are 3 Calgary picks in the top chart - & we didn't have a pick until the third round.

One of the nicest luxuries the Oilers have going into this season is that a player of Hall's calibre can slide between the 1st and 2nd line depending on matchups.

The depth provided by having Nugent-Hopkins and Eberle as a first pairing along with Gagner and Hemsky as a second pairing gives a tremendous amount of flexibility to Krueger in how he'll deploy Yakupov, Hall, Paajarvi or Smyth.

@Sizzler: unscientific. Hall has been given top 6 minutes since the moment he stepped into the league. Seguin was relegated to the 3rd/4th line his rookie season, which throws off his ppg pace dramatically.

It's also interesting to look for high picks at the bottom of the chart. e.g. For a high 2nd round pick (34th overall) Curtis Hamilton isn't doing so well, and the islanders got absolutely boned by blowing a #4 pick on Nino Niederreiter.

This draft was three years ago our past two years have been even better. Most analysits have us ranked in the Top Ten the past two years, considering we were easily the worst team the last decade in terms of drafting its a great start.

@Sizzler: unscientific. Hall has been given top 6 minutes since the moment he stepped into the league. Seguin was relegated to the 3rd/4th line his rookie season, which throws off his ppg pace dramatically.

That is exactly right. Seguin had to earn his ice time and was required to be responsible defensively. Most hockey people were saying that Seguin has clearly pulled ahead of Hall last year. Unless Hall somehow improves his hockey sense, his one dimensional game will not allow him to move to the next level.

@Sizzler: unscientific. Hall has been given top 6 minutes since the moment he stepped into the league. Seguin was relegated to the 3rd/4th line his rookie season, which throws off his ppg pace dramatically.

That is exactly right. Seguin had to earn his ice time and was required to be responsible defensively. Most hockey people were saying that Seguin has clearly pulled ahead of Hall last year. Unless Hall somehow improves his hockey sense, his one dimensional game will not allow him to move to the next level.

@Smell of Victory - don't forget that Boston is a better team, quality of competition each faced vs. those minutes played, etc.

Hard to compare 2 players when 1 is on recent Cup winner and the other is at the bottom of the league.

Too many variables and not enough time gone by yet IMO.

@McRib - Certainly Baertschi is hard to argue with, even at this early stage, but until the chickens actually hatch I wouldn't start counting the eggs. Been down that road way too many times: Boyd, Kobasew, Tzcachuk, Hoglund, Dominechelli (59 goals/148 points), etc.

Fata I always knew was a bad choice.

That article is terrible btw. 'Subjective' doesn't even begin to describe it.

This draft was three years ago our past two years have been even better. Most analysits have us ranked in the Top Ten the past two years, considering we were easily the worst team the last decade in terms of drafting its a great start.

Wasn't Ferland in this draft as well? As good as the 2010 draft looks for the Flames, the 2011 draft looks even better. Hopefully they can acquire some more picks for 2013 and all of a sudden be really stacked with quality prospects.

Most NHL teams hope that their first rounder and one other player every year devlops into an NHL talent, we will have at least three/four a year for three straight seasons. Fixes a lot of problems with an aging team.

We didn't get as much value out of the draft the past two decades as we already have in the 2010s.

Most NHL teams hope that their first rounder and one other player every year devlops into an NHL talent, we will have at least three/four a year for three straight seasons. Fixes a lot of problems with an aging team.

We didn't get as much value out of the draft the past two decades as we already have in the 2010s.

You don't think Granlund will make it? I hope he does but have heard reviews all over the board on him. There was a write up about him a while back that said he has progressed very well. I got a chance to watch Bill Arnold and Gaudreau practice and play with the USA Jrs last year for about a week as they trained where I live and coach. They were very impressive. Arnold could be a real good player.

Oh, I thought it was because of his military commitment. Actually I'm pretty sure it was. Anyway, that kind of misses the point. The point is that ppg after a players first two years after being drafted don't necessarily mean a whole lot. Especially when one of them was a rookie on a Stanley Cup Champion, then led that defending cup champion in scoring the next year. Meaningless to point to a ppg difference to show who the better player is. Also shows Hall's propensity for injury, which from the first time I saw him play had me cringing. There's a difference between playing a high energy style and just being out of control. He's the latter. I would guess we haven't seen the last time he gets injured in warmup.

Its understandable that you aren't getting your hopes up it is the Flames after all, but Boyd, Kobasew, Tzcachuk, Hoglund, Dominechelli (59 goals/148 points), etc. Were taken over the course of two decades. Haha.

We are talking about more players potentially making it from three years of drafting rather than 20. Not since the 80s have we been talking about multiple players every year, who have potential.

Quote from The Hockey Writers: "There are definitely project picks in this (the Flames 2012) group.... Nevertheless, each of the seven shiny new Flames prospects from this draft could conceivably play in the big league."

When was the last time anyone said that about a Flames draft??? Its just encouraging.

You don't think Granlund will make it? I hope he does but have heard reviews all over the board on him. There was a write up about him a while back that said he has progressed very well. I got a chance to watch Bill Arnold and Gaudreau practice and play with the USA Jrs last year for about a week as they trained where I live and coach. They were very impressive. Arnold could be a real good player.

Honestly Markus Granlund blew me away in terms of offensive production for his Finnish Elite league team last season, but think his brother may have had something to do with it. Lets see if he can keep it up without him.

Offensive talent is great, though he needs to seriously bulk up. Watched Markus up in Edmonton at the World Juniors and his offense atrributes are good if not great, but against Canada/USA he literally was crawling out of the corners at times after getting manhandled by the more physical defenseman.

No word of a lie Bill Arnold for me was the USA's most consitant player at the World Junior's in Edmonton last Christmas. He floored me, love his game. Played on a line with Emerson Etem / Charlie Coyle and he was creating the majority of offense all game for them not those other two. It was the only line doing anything consistant for the USA. Although Nick Bjugstad's talent is undeniable.

Oh, I thought it was because of his military commitment. Actually I'm pretty sure it was. Anyway, that kind of misses the point. The point is that ppg after a players first two years after being drafted don't necessarily mean a whole lot. Especially when one of them was a rookie on a Stanley Cup Champion, then led that defending cup champion in scoring the next year. Meaningless to point to a ppg difference to show who the better player is. Also shows Hall's propensity for injury, which from the first time I saw him play had me cringing. There's a difference between playing a high energy style and just being out of control. He's the latter. I would guess we haven't seen the last time he gets injured in warmup.

TBH, even as I Flames fan, I like Halls approach. He leaves everything on the ice and holds nothing back. He's got a lot of heart that kid.

@McRib - no doubt, best prospect group in ages IMO too, but other players have been hyped in the past. I was just trying to throw out some examples. Mitch Wahl and Ryan Howse would be more recent ones. Just saying that I find it hard to get my hopes up too early on these guys and there's no chance all of the guys you list will make it at all, let alone have an impact. It'd be nice, and it's nice that our last few drafts have been better, and it's a start, but is it enough? IMO, no. But I'm obviously in the nuke 'em camp.

Haha, We do differ on the Nuke em'camp. The possibility of Young Guns 2.0 scares me too much. Though the way Feaster and Co. (Cough Cough John Weisbrod) are drafting scares me a little less.

No problem with getting younger though, wouldn't be heartbroken if Iggy got dealt he's done as much as he can for this franchise, but Kipper is to good and goalies historically don't have a drop off until after 40 for GAA. If we turned the ship around in a couple years would be nice to have Kipper. Look how quickly Ottawa turned things around and if they had a goalie of Kipper's quality last season they would have won at least a series or two. Though there are a couple NHL teams that would kill to have Kipper could get rediculous value. Imagine if someone like Philly picked him up? Honestly they would win multiple cups.

I was not in the camp that thought Mitch Wahl and Ryan Howse would make it. Ryan Howse would have been a first rounder if he was even a mediocre skater, he is not. Mitch Wahl never went into a corner or played in traffic in four years of junior, injurys at the pro level are not a suprise.

Honesly don't sleep on these kids I know your pessimistic, but compared to the past where we had to hype prospects because it was just so sad we had no one else. These kids have talent.

Every time I have watched the likes of Bartschi, Reinhart, Ferland, Arnold, Gaudreau, Jankowski I walk away impressed like I did with Phaneuf. No word of a lie I watched Howse a couple times his final year when he scored 50 goals in Junior.... He just coasted around the ice waiting for his line mate to bring him the puck. Who was his line mate.... Oh ya Roman Horak. Weird Coincidence that we got him in the Erixon trade.... Funny thing is I don't believe in coincidences. This group is different.

I haven't ever seen or read of a case where high-ankle sprains are recurring.

Just about every player in the NHL does the pre-game skate with no helmet. His injury there was about as direct a correlation to his style of play as Nugent-Hopkins' losing an edge crossing the blue line.

The Sarich hit was a good hit. It was the kind of play that any young player could fall prey to.

Hall's style makes people uneasy, but often players will say that playing scared and trying to avoid being injured ends up leading to further injury.

As time goes on there may be more wear and tear on his body, but I've seen other Oiler wingers play a similar kamikaze style with less padding and fewer medical resources at their disposal and have long careers. We shall see.

I also wouldn't equate a player's size with a propensity towards injury. Lindros spent a tonne of time on the IR compared to Martin St. Louis.

I never called Taylor Hall small. Even once. Re-read what I said. He's received several major injuries, correct? It's because he plays with an edge because he wants to win, correct?

My opinion is that his consistent injury history is similar to that of other players. Eric Lindros, Paul Kariya, Tim Connolly, Marc Savard. 3 of the 4 had their careers cut short because of recurring trauma to important parts of their bodies - head, face, ankles, shoulders. Hall needs to cool it a bit - it's one thing to play with an edge, another to be reckless.

And yes, you are correct, the 2011-12 Flames are indeed small. I don't necessarily see it as a problem if they can score consistently but if they run the dump and chase over and over, it may prove completely useless. Like, lottery pick useless. Jankowski is huge though and may make up for our small team, in time. I mean, this season's Flames are basically 2010-11 Montreal Lite.

As far as the high ankle sprain, when Bourque had it, I remember reading that statement multiple times. Rolston and Lucic come to mind as well where I heard similar remarks.

I do know for a fact that high ankle sprain recovery times can vary drastically, and this leads some players to coming back too soon. They end up aggravating the injury and it gets worse. The part about recurring, I'm not 100% confident on, but I know I've heard that before.

Once again, I never said anything about size. Not at all. I don't know why you guys keep saying that. I think Hall is a great player (wish the Flames had him or someone like him) just believe that his playing style is reckless and that he has poor luck.

Luck really is a big factor when it comes to injuries. That freak accident in warm-up was obviously bad luck, but it could have been a *lot* worse. Just ask Malarchuk!

Hall plays a style that leaves him vulnerable to injuries. He's a tough SOB though, and just keeps coming back for more. Edmonton's coaching staff really needs to make him focus more on his own safety and make sure he's taking adequate time off to heal.

Some guys just get lucky and can play a full career the way Hall does, but there are definitely fewer of them who remain impact players into their thirties than those who learn to avoid injury on a more consistent basis. Hall could be one of the lucky ones, but it's better to not rely too much on luck!

@dsf
If you checked stats at hckey abstract you would know that Hall played against tougher competition than Seguin.

Who will turn out to be the best player still has to be written but Hall had same zone starts and tougher competition.

Nope.

Seguin had the toughest competition on the Bruins:

http://bit.ly/Nn4Dea

Seguin's Off Zone starts were 55.8

Hall's Off Zone starts were 56.5

Who will turn out to be the best player might "yet to be determined" but on the evidence we have NOW, Seguin is a better player because he scores at a higher rate at even strength and kills the opposition.

Hall vs Seguin.. One on one, Hall wins 9 out of 10 times, so yes he is the better player. Seguin wouldn't have the numbers that Hall has playing for the Oilers, Boston's team dynamic and play help Seguin make up lots of ground on Hall stat wise. Compare Bruin to Oiler team stats, Halls numbers tower above Seguin in contribution.

RNH will be a more dominate center then Seguin when it gets down to it.