Consumer confidence did not weaken further in November

The weakening of consumer confidence that had
started in spring came to a halt in November. The consumer
confidence indicator stood at 1.5 in November, having been 1.3 in
October and 2.3 in September. In last year’s November, the
consumer confidence indicator received the value 20.8. The
long-term average for the confidence indicator is 13.1. The data
are based on Statistics Finland’s Consumer Survey, for which
1,376 people resident in Finland were interviewed between 1 and 18
November.

Consumer confidence indicator

Consumers’ views regarding all four components of the
consumer confidence indicator remained more or less unchanged from
the previous month in November. Consumers' expectations concerning
general economic development, i.e. Finland's economy and
unemployment, were gloomy. Their assessments regarding their own
economy were also weak but they had strong faith in their own
saving possibilities.

In November, employed consumers also felt some personal threat
of unemployment. In addition, consumers considered saving in
November clearly more worthwhile than purchasing of durable goods
or raising a loan, in particular.

Only 15 per cent of consumers believed in November that
Finland’s economic situation would improve in the coming
twelve months, while 47 per cent of them thought that the
country’s economy would deteriorate. In last year’s
November, the corresponding proportions were very optimistic 47 and
13 per cent. In all, 24 per cent of consumers believed in November
that their own economy would improve and 15 per cent of them feared
it would worsen over the year. One year ago, the respective
proportions were 28 and 12 per cent.

Consumers' expectations concerning their own and
Finland's economy in 12 months' time

Only 11 per cent of consumers thought in November that
unemployment would decrease in Finland over the next year, while 60
per cent of them believed it would increase. Twelve months earlier
the corresponding proportions were 36 and 25 per cent.

In November, 13 per cent of employed persons reckoned that their
personal threat of unemployment had decreased over the past few
months but more, or 16 per cent, of them thought it had grown.
Twelve months previously, the corresponding proportions were 20 and
14 per cent. In November, 49 per cent of employed persons thought
the threat of unemployment had remained unchanged and 22 per cent
felt that they were not threatened by unemployment at all.

Consumers predicted in November that consumer prices would go up
by 3.2 per cent over the next 12 months. The long-term predicted
average inflation rate is 2.2 per cent.

A total of 65 per cent of consumers considered saving worthwhile
this November. Sixty-seven per cent of households had been able to
lay aside some money and 79 per cent believed they would be able to
do so during the next 12 months.

In November, 46 per cent of consumers regarded the time good for
raising a loan. One year earlier the corresponding proportion was
68 per cent. Slightly fewer households than on the average, or 11
per cent of them, were planning in November to raise a loan within
one year.

In November, 37 per cent of consumers considered the time
favourable for buying durable goods. Twelve months ago, the
respective proportion was 49 per cent. Consumption intentions were
moderate in November, but many households had plans to spend money
on, for instance, travel and purchases of home technology during
the next six months. Fifteen per cent of households were fairly or
very certain to buy a car and eight per cent a dwelling during the
next 12 months. In last year’s November, the respective
proportions were 18 and 8 per cent.

The population of the Consumer Survey comprises
approximately 4.1 million persons and 2.5 million households in
Finland. The size of the sample of the Consumer Survey is 2,200
persons monthly. In November, the non-response rate of the Survey
was 37.5 per cent. The non-response rate includes those who refused
from the survey or were otherwise prevented from participating as
well as those who could not be contacted.

Consumers' views of the economy

Average 10/1995-

Max. 10/1995-

Min. 10/1995-

11/2010

10/2011

11/2011

Outlook

A1 Consumer confidence indicator, CCI =
(B2+B4+B7+D2)/4

13,1

22,9

-6,5

20,8

1,3

1,5

--

B2 Own economy in 12 months' time
(balance)

9,0

14,1

2,3

8,9

5,6

5,4

--

D2 Household's saving possibilities in the
next 12 months (balance)

37,7

52,2

10,9

51,7

46,5

46,4

+

B4 Finland's economy in 12 months' time
(balance)

4,8

25,3

-27,1

17,2

-19,7

-18,9

--

B7 Unemployment in Finland in 12 months' time
(balance)

0,9

27,6

-51,1

5,3

-27,4

-26,7

--

B8 Own threat of unemployment now
(balance)

1,0

7,6

-18,8

5,9

-1,7

-1,3

-

B6 Inflation in 12 months' time (per
cent)

2,2

4,6

0,6

2,8

3,3

3,2

C1 Favourability of time for buying durable
goods (balance)

20,7

41,8

-14,2

24,6

2,8

1,7

--

C2 Favourability of time for saving
(balance)

11,5

36,8

-19,6

21,0

17,9

19,5

+

C3 Favourability of time for raising a loan
(balance)

17,8

42,0

-47,1

23,4

-1,8

-3,4

--

The balance figures are obtained by deducting
the weighted proportion of negative answers from that of positive
answers. The consumer confidence indicator is the
average of the balance figures for the CCI components. The balance
figures and the confidence indicator can range between -100 and
+100 – the higher (positive) balance figure, the brighter the
view on the economy.

Explanations for Outlook column: ++ Outlook is very good, +
Outlook is good, +/- Outlook is neutral, - Outlook is poor, --
Outlook is very poor. Deviation of balance from average has been
compared to standard deviation.