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The NPD Group, responsible for compiling and releasing monthly sales data of the gaming industry in North America, is attempting to address a hole in its retail-skewed data: digital point-of-sale information.

NPD plans to change its methods to include these digital POS figures, and change them "quickly," Games President David McQuillan tells Games Industry. McQuillan wants to prepare for the new consoles hitting shelves this holiday.

"We fully realize that the market needs the same level of information for the digital categories as exists for the physical business today: SKU-level POS," he says. "The progress on that effort up until recently has been slow and frustrating at times, but today I am very happy to share that the pace of progress has changed recently. NPD has formed a leader panel to track digital POS sales of full game and add-on content downloads."

The leader panel includes nine "leading games publishers," and it will first focus on full-game downloads and DLC for PC, consoles and mobile devices. The program is in beta now, and NPD is partnering with research company EEDAR to track digital POS numbers worldwide -not only in North America as its current system does.

Eventually the digital results will make their way into NPD's monthly reports, but there's no word on when that will happen. "Once we move past the beta or proof of concept phase, subscribers will have access to the full data set, which you would expect of any service," McQuillan says. "The level of information to be shared publicly has not been determined at this time."

Since 2010, NPD has tracked downloads of full games and add-on content, subscriptions, mobile games and social games, but it leaves out numbers from digital stores such as Steam, Xbox Live Marketplace and PlayStation Network in its monthly reports. The importance of these marketplaces continues to grow over the years, and last month the ESA called the NPD reports a "disservice to the truth." In 2011, EA called NPD's data "a misrepresentation of the entire industry."

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>3dsdigitaldownloadeedarmacmicrosoftmobilenintendonpdnpd-grouppcplaystationplaystation-vitaps3vitawii-uxboxTue, 02 Jul 2013 20:00:00 ESThttp://www.joystiq.com/2012/04/26/3ds-sold-under-cost-since-price-cut-nintendo-hoping-to-profit/http://www.joystiq.com/2012/04/26/3ds-sold-under-cost-since-price-cut-nintendo-hoping-to-profit/http://www.joystiq.com/2012/04/26/3ds-sold-under-cost-since-price-cut-nintendo-hoping-to-profit/#commentsNintendo took a big hit last year when it dropped the price of its then-nascent handheld, the 3DS, to $170 just a few months after initial launch. Such a hit, apparently, that Nintendo is selling the unit for less than it costs the company to produce, as revealed in the company's latest financial earnings. "Its hardware has been sold below cost because of its significant price cut in the fiscal year ended March 31, 2012," the financial report says.

But don't count Nintendo out! The company says it "expects to cease selling it below cost by the middle of the fiscal year ending March 31, 2013." Which, in normal human terms, means Nintendo expects to start making money on the console around August of this year. So, you know, if you're really trying to stick it to Nintendo, go buy the 3DS between now and August. That'll show 'em!

The 3DS currently sells for $170, down from the $250 price tag it launched with back March of 2011.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>3dscosteedarfinancial-reportfinancialsjesse-divnichmichael-pachternintendoprofitssaleswedbushwedbush-morganwedbush-securitiesThu, 26 Apr 2012 09:50:00 ESThttp://www.joystiq.com/2011/10/19/eedar-report-half-of-hd-console-owners-buying-dlc/http://www.joystiq.com/2011/10/19/eedar-report-half-of-hd-console-owners-buying-dlc/http://www.joystiq.com/2011/10/19/eedar-report-half-of-hd-console-owners-buying-dlc/#comments
Research firm EEDAR has produced its "Deconstructing Downloadable Content (DLC) Report" for 2011. The report, now in its third year, reveals that 51 percent of HD console owners have purchased DLC in the last 12 months. EEDAR expects DLC will generate over $875 million in 2011, surpassing $1 billion in 2012 in North America.

EEDAR figures if publishers can get the 49 percent who have not purchased DLC to convert, the North American games industry could make an extra $600 million dollars. According to the report, the number one reason, at 47 percent, for consumers not purchasing DLC is privacy ... your guess is as good as ours as to what that means. EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich told Joystiq the company plans to break out that question for more detail next year. Reasons two and three -- "no return policy" and "too expensive" -- make far more sense.

We also asked Divnich how the company defined "purchased" to the survey participants, since the bundled "online pass" has become ubiquitous this year. He told us that the survey was specific about a transfer of money having occurred for online content, but that a respondent could have taken that to mean at the cash register instead of through a digital distribution network.

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Game industry analysis firms NPD and EEDAR have announced a new partnership "aimed at improving the measurement and analysis of the evolving video game industry." Specifically, it appears that EEDAR will help NPD round out its coverage of downloadable game sales.

Together, the two firms hope to create a "total market tracking service for interactive entertainment," providing a broad picture of both physical and digital sales data. As part of this strategy, EEDAR's GamePulse service will immediately begin incorporating NPD's point-of-sale data.

Traditionally, NPD has only reported physical sales of games in North America, though the group has been attempting to expand its coverage of downloadable sales in recent years. Given EEDAR's expertise in the field, it seems to be a good partnership for both firms. It's worth pointing out, however, that Steam, undoubtedly one of the largest digital distribution platforms, does not share its sales numbers. In other words, getting a truly accurate picture of the downloadable landscape could be difficult.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>dseedarmicrosoftmobilenintendonpdpcplaystationps3pspsonywiixboxMon, 08 Aug 2011 16:30:00 ESThttp://www.joystiq.com/2011/07/13/eedar-psn-welcome-back-program-spurred-download-sales/http://www.joystiq.com/2011/07/13/eedar-psn-welcome-back-program-spurred-download-sales/http://www.joystiq.com/2011/07/13/eedar-psn-welcome-back-program-spurred-download-sales/#comments
According to a new report from analytics firm EEDAR, Sony's PlayStation Network Welcome Back program did more than boost user morale: it actually boosted purchases of downloadable titles. Using data gathered from IGN GamerMetrics, ownership of downloadable titles jumped from 13 percent in March, before the PSN first went down, up to 17 percent in June. The jump isn't surprising, given the free titles Sony made available. Even taking those out of the equation, though, downloadable ownership was still up to 15 percent in June.

The firm also noted that interest in sequels to the free games, notably LittleBigPlanet and Dead Nation, rose significantly. Specifically, LittleBigPlanet 2 trailer views were up 69 percent on GameTrailers, while Google Insights data indicated a greatly increased number of searches for the term "Dead Nation 2."

Based on the increased interest in sequels to the free titles in the Welcome Back program, EEDAR suggests a possible new model for sequel releases. Essentially, in order to drum up interest for upcoming sequels, publishers could release their respective predecessors for free for a limited time. The report acknowledges that this is a risky maneuver, though it notes that the free titles would only have to boost sales of their sequels by a small margin for the practice to be profitable.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>analysiseedarLBPLittleBigPlanetplaystationps3psnWed, 13 Jul 2011 00:00:00 ESThttp://www.joystiq.com/2011/06/20/eedar-picks-its-most-promising-retail-performers-from-e3-2011/http://www.joystiq.com/2011/06/20/eedar-picks-its-most-promising-retail-performers-from-e3-2011/http://www.joystiq.com/2011/06/20/eedar-picks-its-most-promising-retail-performers-from-e3-2011/#comments
Using a complex mish-mash of chicken bones, crystal spheres and traffic reports from IGN and GameTrailers, game industry analysis firm EEDAR has picked which games from the E3 show floor it expects to be the biggest sellers this year. Their choices probably won't shock and surprise you: Mass Effect 3 took top honors, followed by Battlefield 3, Skyrim, Modern Warfare 3 and Assassin's Creed: Revelations.

Let this be a lesson to all the video game publishers out there: If you want your games to sell like hotcakes this holiday season, you best slap a three on the title. Check out EEDAR's full report (PDF) for the rest of E3's expected mega-successes.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>biowaredse3-2011eedarmass-effect-3microsoftnintendoplaystationps3wiixboxMon, 20 Jun 2011 21:00:00 ESThttp://www.joystiq.com/2011/02/03/eedar-weighs-in-on-ngp-speculates-299-to-349-price-for-wi-fi/http://www.joystiq.com/2011/02/03/eedar-weighs-in-on-ngp-speculates-299-to-349-price-for-wi-fi/http://www.joystiq.com/2011/02/03/eedar-weighs-in-on-ngp-speculates-299-to-349-price-for-wi-fi/#comments
Analysis firm EEDAR has issued a report on the debut of the NGP, speculating on several areas, including hardware and software cost as well as the NGP's likelihood of success. The firm expects Sony's upcoming handheld to "handsomely surpass sales of its predecessor, the PSP," though the report adds that success will depend upon long-term publisher support and a competitive price.

Concerning the price, EEDAR predicts the Wi-Fi-only model to cost "between $299 to $349, but not to exceed $399 in the United States." Furthermore, the firm believes that some regions may not see the 3G version of the NGP at all. For comparison, the report notes EEDAR's estimate that 62 to 70 percent of iPads sold in North America are Wi-Fi-only models. Demand for a 3G model may be higher in Europe and Asia. EEDAR predicts that the NGP's 3G capabilities aren't designed to compete directly with mobile phone gaming -- clearly another area of interest for Sony -- as 3G is unsuitable for large game downloads. 3G functionality is more likely to be used for multiplayer and social functions.

The report includes a few more notable tidbits. Games, both downloadable and retail, are predicted to be priced between $40 and $50. Publishers are advised to get on board early, as the report notes "EEDAR is certain that the initial 18 months will produce significant hardware and software sales to support profitability for third‐party publishers." Finally, EEDAR expects more NGP information at GDC, while the first hands-on opportunities will have to wait for E3 2010. Rest assured that Joystiq will be attending both events.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>analysiseedarjesse-divnichngpplaystationplaystation-vitapspsonyvitaThu, 03 Feb 2011 19:40:00 ESThttp://www.joystiq.com/2011/01/27/eedars-jesse-divnich-estimates-ngp-will-cost-300-to-350/http://www.joystiq.com/2011/01/27/eedars-jesse-divnich-estimates-ngp-will-cost-300-to-350/http://www.joystiq.com/2011/01/27/eedars-jesse-divnich-estimates-ngp-will-cost-300-to-350/#comments
Electronic Entertainment Design and Research analyst Jesse Divnich has a few ideas about what Sony meant by "an affordable price that's appropriate for the handheld gaming space" when talking about the NGP's launch price. Speaking with GamesIndustry, Divnich predicted that the device would retail for between $299 and $349 at launch, which ... um, seems a little high when compared to other contenders in the "handheld gaming space."

Divnich says that such a price wouldn't be prohibitive to your average Joe or Jane, explaining "The market is ripe for portable high-end gaming. The NGP will be a serious threat to all forms of portable entertainment," and later adding, "After seeing the specs today, if the NGP can't succeed, it is clear that the portable gaming landscape has forever changed." Wait, you're saying the popularity of casual mobile games like Angry Birds might last forever? Forever-ever? Forever-ever?

When we're not spending $150 on "collector's edition" versions of games or buying $50 worth of post-launch DLC, we're spending less than ever on brand new retail copies of video games. Ars Technica explores the history of game prices in comparison to the current climate in a recent piece, astutely pointing out that when adjusted for inflation, game prices of yesteryear are vastly higher than today's Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 games (by as much as $40). As seen in the image above, Streets of Rage 2 brand new would've run $64.99 in 1993, amounting to $98.19 in 2010 dollars.

EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich offered an explanation for the declining cost for brand new games at retail, saying the cause is the continually growing audience for video games. "Our industry continues to grow, and as such, so does the revenue, which increases competition in the market and generally results in bigger development budgets," Divnich posited. Of course, publishers are finding other ways to get our cash -- namely the aforementioned collector's/limited editions and various downloadable content. Still, though braving your local used game retailer might not be the most pleasurable experience every time, it offers another opportunity to pay less for games than ever before. As Ars says, "This is a fine time to be a gamer."

New tech does not always equal gimme gimme -- according to several prominent analysts, Panasonic is set to engage in quite the uphill battle with its new handheld, The Jungle. Both Bill Pidgeon of M2 Research and David Cole of DFC Intelligence told IndustryGamers they believe the unit is "a non-starter."

Colin Sebastian of Lazard Capital Markets said it looks like "an uphill challenge to launch a new portable gaming device unless there is some meaningful differentiation or access to proprietary content," while EEDAR's Jesse Divnich offered that its success hinges on third-party support, saying that, "with any hardware platform regardless of its quality, the absence of strong third-party support will most certainly end in failure." All valid points, but should these guys be giving the device the benefit of the doubt?

As it stands right now, we don't know much about the system other than what it aims to do: give MMO players a dedicated piece of hardware so they can take their games on the go. Given how popular MMOs are (and, in turn, how much of the cash money they generate), from a business standpoint it would seem win-win; nobody else is offering something to MMO players who may want a bit of portability. But, on the other hand, the problem is -- at least according to these analysts -- that the handheld doesn't particularly fill a void that can't be filled by a netbook or laptop.

Over the past 24 hours, select members of the gaming industry peanut gallery have sounded off on Nintendo's recently announced launch plans for the 3DS. Many in the investment community balked at the high price and later-than-expected launch window, including Lazard Capital Markets' Colin Sebastian, who worries "shipment quantities to the U.S. next spring might be more constrained than originally anticipated." MF Global FXA Securities' Jay Defibaugh explained that those two qualms, combined with the devices apparent lack of 3G support, made the announcement a "worst-case scenario."

Though many analysts appear to share these concerns, EEDAR, which expects the handheld to come to the US in March 2011 at $249 to $299, disagrees. "The higher price point allows Nintendo to incorporate new features such as 3D movies, camera, and game support," EEDAR noted in a report received by Joystiq yesterday, later adding, "a 2010 Holiday launch would severely impact both the quantity and quality of titles that could be made available by November 2010."

Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter predicts that the market will bear the relatively high price of the handheld, though he expects the cost to drop to $250 when it arrives in the U.S.. For more of Pachter's predictions for Nintendo's western 3DS launch plans, check out our interview with the outspoken analyst.

EEDAR CEO Greg Short previewed a new report today at GDC Europe, indicating that a majority of consumers want DLC one to three months after a game's launch. That detail is just one part of the company's "Deconstructing DLC Report," which should be available later this month (to those with the cash). Comparing data from 2009 and 2010 revealed a significant uptick in the percentage of those who want DLC a month after a game's release, and a decrease in those who want it at launch or a year later. Given the data, Short notes that developers need to make DLC releases "part of the build plan" for games.

Comparing when consumers check for paid vs. free DLC for a game, the figures are incredibly similar. The report indicates 35 percent never check for paid DLC, compared to 29 percent of consumers who never check for free DLC before purchase. On the other hand, an average of 20 percent check up on free or paid DLC before purchasing. As for those who check for paid or free DLC during purchase, after purchase or after finishing the game, they all have very similar percentages. It appears that DLC is important to consumers, but whether it's paid or free, they seem to go looking for it at similar times.

A couple weeks back, Joystiq received an advance copy of a study conducted by EEDAR and SMU's Guildhall, the purpose of which was to determine the purchase intent of individuals and how trusted review sources weighed into consumer decision-making. While our previous post offered all kinds of insights and neat breakouts from the study, you can now freely peruse the 31-page report for yourselves.

In the spirit of figuring things out, we've decided to conduct our own little study, which you can participate in just past the break. It's not scientific or anything, but then again, we're not Sciencestiq now, are we?

A study conducted by EEDAR and SMU's Guildhall found trusted media outlets do affect consumers' perception of video games and their willingness to purchase. Joystiq received an advanced copy of the study (releasing publicly next week), that involved 165 qualified participants split into three groups, who were then exposed to high, low and no review scores for Plants vs. Zombies before playing the game. After the 20-minute session, the subjects were offered either a copy of the game or $10. A result of the study was that participants exposed to higher review scores were 100 percent more likely than those exposed to low scores to take a copy of Plants vs. Zombies over the $10 and "85 percent more likely to take the game than the control group." The study concludes that "because nearly twice as many participants in the high review group took the copy ... that the relationship between video game sales and professional review scores are not correlative but causal."

Plants vs. Zombies was chosen because it's "regarded by the gaming community and by critics as a high quality title of broad appeal." The mock reviews used in the study were from five well-known media outlets and participants were told that the aggregate review score they were given was "comprised of 51 professional" outlets. All participants "played the same game, on the same type of computer, in the same environment, for the same amount of time."

Electronic Entertainment Design and Research (EEDAR) has released a report listing various attention metrics from gamers from two sites, GameTrailers and IGN.com, regarding the most "popular" titles from E3. We put "popular" in quotes there because these stats are for things like trailer streaming and page views rather than a scientific survey -- this is a general feel of the zeitgeist on these two specific sites rather than a comprehensive view of what gamers thought of E3.

But there are interesting things to note even in this limited set of stats, especially when you compare it to our own anecdotal show floor and "chatter" data from you commenters. We heard from quite a few of you during the show that Nintendo's press conference was the most popular event, and this list agrees. Likewise, The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword was one of the most popular titles on the show floor, and there's no shortage of Link representation here. Kirby's Epic Yarn is probably the biggest unannounced-before E3 title on the lists, and Marvel vs. Capcom 3 captured a lot of attention -- not much was revealed at the show itself, but it was placed front and center on the floor of the West Hall.

At the same time, there are some weird conclusions here. World of Warcraft: Cataclysm, an expansion which didn't even make an appearance at E3, registered in the top 20 in the GameTrailers stats and Red Dead Redemption, a game that's already out, picked up spot No. 8 on IGN's Page Views list of big E3 titles. EEDAR also notes that the Nintendo 3DS didn't rank on any of these lists, but given the lines at the Nintendo booth to see it, the new handheld garnered plenty of attention. So you can't really bank on these titles yet. But if you're interested, you can check out EEDAR's top 10 in each category after the break.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>e3-2010eedargamesgametrailersignmicrosoftnintendopcplaystationps3the-legend-of-zelda-skyward-swordwiixboxSat, 26 Jun 2010 12:00:00 ESThttp://www.joystiq.com/2010/05/13/eedar-makes-e3-predictions-expo-to-be-inflection-point-for-ga/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/05/13/eedar-makes-e3-predictions-expo-to-be-inflection-point-for-ga/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/05/13/eedar-makes-e3-predictions-expo-to-be-inflection-point-for-ga/#comments
In his latest Divnich Debrief column at IndustryGamers, EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich has made some predictions for E3 2010. Divnich sees this year's expo as a pivotal one for the industry, noting that new technologies like PlayStation Move, Project Natal and the 3DS must make a big splash. Otherwise, says Divnich, we may see industry funding driven toward sectors like MMOs and social gaming. Divnich sees the expo as an "inflection point" in gaming history, saying, "Either E3 2010 acts as a positive catalyst and boosts industry confidence, or it reinforces the negative notions about the long-term viability of traditional gaming."

Divnich makes a few predictions about the show, notably that Rockstar may reveal Grand Theft Auto 5, though it won't announce any hard street date if it does. Divnich believes, however, that you can expect a new teaser for Agent. Nintendo, meanwhile, will announce the official name of the 3DS and announce plans to launch the device in "at least two regions" this November. He also expects the unit will sell 5 million units by March 2011. Furthermore, Nintendo may finally show off its Vitality Sensor in more detail.

Beyond that, the show will likely revolve around Move, Project Natal and the 3DS. "Whatever the outcome or your own personal opinion, one thing is for certain," says Divnich, "E3 2010 is a must attend event for anyone with any vested interest in the video game space."

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>agentDSe3-2010eedarjesse-divnichMicrosoftmovenatalNintendoplaystation-moveproject-natalrockstarWiiXbox-360Thu, 13 May 2010 22:00:00 ESThttp://www.joystiq.com/2010/04/28/login-conference-hosting-two-panels-on-game-addiction/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/04/28/login-conference-hosting-two-panels-on-game-addiction/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/04/28/login-conference-hosting-two-panels-on-game-addiction/#comments
It's been pretty hard, but after 45 straight minutes of arguing with ourselves, we were able to pull away from Imagine Babyzlong enough to get some work done. And who woulda guessed it, the very first post we sit down to write happens to be about the upcoming Login Conference in Seattle, an event which includes not just one but two panels specifically dedicated to video game addiction.

Author and psychotherapist Hilarie Cash will be presenting the (tautologically delicious) "Games and Addiction: The Addictive Power of Games," a panel that examines the correlation between addictive gameplay and "something that is truly addictive." The second panel again features Cash, this time alongside Entertainment Science's Darion Rapoza, with discussion moderated by EEDAR's Geoffrey Zatkin, and will further discuss the first panel's subject. For those of you looking to attend (and not stand up and shout during either of the panels), more information can be found on the conference's official website.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>conferenecedarion-rapozaeedargame-addictiongeoffrey-zatkinhilarie-cashlogin-conferencelogin-conference-2010Wed, 28 Apr 2010 03:30:00 ESThttp://www.joystiq.com/2010/04/21/analyst-ponders-impact-of-mw2-stimulus-package-success/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/04/21/analyst-ponders-impact-of-mw2-stimulus-package-success/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/04/21/analyst-ponders-impact-of-mw2-stimulus-package-success/#comments
On IndustryGamers, EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich examines the economic impact of Modern Warfare 2's "Stimulus Package" on consumers, business and the future of DLC. He notes that "as an economist" he's glad a publisher tested the boundaries of DLC pricing, as millions of consumers (around 25 percent of MW2 owners) proved willing to drop $15 on the map pack. He points out that "if consumers deem it unfair for companies to overcharge their products, it is similarly unfair for businesses to unknowingly under-price their products."

However, Divnich wonders about the long-term implications of continued high-priced MW2 DLC, should Activision go that route. He suggests that consumers could leave the Call of Duty "circle" for games like Battlefield: Bad Company 2, where the cost for new content over time appears to be lower. He also posits that "consumers could avoid the next iteration of the Call of Duty franchise, since again, cost of dedicated ownership is now much higher." Divnich explains that the current "situation" between Infinity Ward and Activision may cloud core consumer purchases of future DLC and the franchise, as well, compared to if everything had remained -- on the surface, at least -- hunky-dory.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>Activisionactivision-blizzardcall-of-dutycall-of-duty-modern-warfare-2dlceedarjesse-divnichmodern-warfare-2stimulus-packageWed, 21 Apr 2010 14:03:00 ESThttp://www.joystiq.com/2010/03/14/gdc-2010-eedar-on-achievements-user-behavior/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/03/14/gdc-2010-eedar-on-achievements-user-behavior/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/03/14/gdc-2010-eedar-on-achievements-user-behavior/#commentsEEDAR hosted a two part panel at GDC this year. In the second half of the panel -- you can read about the first half here -- Jesse Divnich presented the results of an Xbox Live Achievement study the firm recently conducted. The info was pulled from a pool of 32 million data points -- provided by MyGamerCard.net -- and centered on a random sampling of 100 different Xbox 360 games.

Probably the most interesting statistic that Divnich dropped: An average of only 4 percent of Xbox gamers actually managed to earn all of the achievements in any given game. When focusing only on major, "AAA" titles, that number drops to 2 percent. Meanwhile, less than 10 percent of consumers get more than 80 percent of Achievements. Furthermore, Divnich noted that only 27 percent of users manage to unlock more than 50 percent of Achievements.

Divnich concluded his talk by saying that developers should learn as much as possible from Achievements. He advised studios to use them as motivational tool for users noting that the number of unlocked Achievements tends to drop off at around 30 percent. He added that gamers who manage to unlock at least 80 percent of Achievements are typically motivated to unlock the remaining 20 percent.

Finally, Divnich stated that developers can use Achievements as a form of direct user feedback. By observing which Achievements are unlocked, developers can see the parts of a game that players enjoy. This, in turn, can help developers decide what to focus on in the sequel. Beyond that, Achievement monitoring could even help them decide whether to make a sequel at all.

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Game industry analysis firm EEDAR dropped some interesting statistics during its GDC panel this year. The first half of the presentation -- hosted by EEDAR president Geoffrey Zatkin -- concerned new intellectual property in the games industry. According to Zatkin, the amount of new IP released has increased slightly over the last three years. Specifically, it was up to 22 percent in 2009, up from 17 percent in 2006. However, breaking it down by console, Zatkin stated that new IP currently comprises 27 percent of Wii software, while that number drops to 17 percent on the PS3 and 360.

He added that certain genres see very few original properties, particularly fighting games. Furthermore, the relationship between new IP and ESRB ratings is different on various platforms. Most new IP on the Wii tends to be rated E, while new properties on 360 and PS3 tend to be rated T or M. Using data like this, Zatkin said, publishers can decide what sort of games to release on which platforms. The question, according to Zatkin, is whether publishers decide to follow the trends or fill the "holes" in their portfolios by releasing titles in underrepresented areas (any pubs up for a mature Wii fighting game?).

Zatkin also discussed the best time for publishers to release new properties. A bar graph illustrated a slight trend away from the industry crowding all its releases into the holiday shopping season, though it still accounted for 37 percent of releases in 2009. Zatkin also pointed out that many publishers release their major titles at the end of their fiscal quarters. The lesson for publishers looking to release new (and risky) properties? Keep your games out of the fourth quarter and try to release them in the second month of any given fiscal quarter.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>businesseedargdcgdc-2010geoffrey-zatkinnew-ipSat, 13 Mar 2010 23:00:00 ESThttp://www.joystiq.com/2010/03/02/infinity-ward-modern-warfare-2-royalties-analysis/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/03/02/infinity-ward-modern-warfare-2-royalties-analysis/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/03/02/infinity-ward-modern-warfare-2-royalties-analysis/#comments
Following the departures of two Infinity Ward executives, a related story has gained significant traction and deserves some attention. BingeGamer reports that the development studio "has yet to be paid a single dime in royalties for Modern Warfare 2," ostensibly to be paid by publisher Activision. As Infinity Ward is a wholly-owned Activision studio, we turned to some leading industry analysts to explain what appears to be a private contractual matter.

EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich tells Joystiq, "I couldn't speak to what the royalty agreement between Activision and Infinity Ward is. If royalties haven't been paid out yet, I wouldn't consider that too alarming. The game has only been out for a little over 90 days. Additionally, it is common to see royalty agreements based upon factors such as hitting release date, review scores (a.k.a. 'Metacritic Clauses') or revenue milestones. I think if you just replace the word 'royalties' with 'bonus' it should make some more sense."

Wedbush Morgan's Michael Pachter explains, "I don't know the nature of [Infinity Ward's] contract, but my bonus is paid after year-end (in February), and theirs is likely the same. The idea that they haven't been paid 'yet' is not all that surprising. The year just closed, and the final SEC documents were filed yesterday." He continues, "IW sold itself to Activision back in 2004, Activision owns the [Call of Duty] IP, and the guys leaving were employees under some kind of contract. Activision appears to believe that they have breached this contract, and may or may not be justified in withholding bonuses."

Check out Pachter and Divnich's full analyses after the break.

[Editor's note: This post has been altered to reflect updates in the Infinity Ward leadership shakeup.]

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>activisionanalystbonusescontractseedarfinancialinfinity-wardjesse-divnichmichael-pachterMicrosoftmodern-warfare-2royaltiessaleswedbush-morganXbox-360Tue, 02 Mar 2010 15:30:00 ESThttp://www.joystiq.com/2010/02/12/eedar-mass-effect-2-best-selling-january-release-ever/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/02/12/eedar-mass-effect-2-best-selling-january-release-ever/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/02/12/eedar-mass-effect-2-best-selling-january-release-ever/#comments
EEDAR vice president and analyst Jesse Divnich has sent out some surprising facts about game sales during the month of January. Well, okay -- it isn't exactly chart shattering that a crapton (that's 572,000) of Mass Effect 2 units were sold last month, but, according to EEDAR's calculations, the game managed to become the best-selling January release of all time in just six days of retail availability. Even with such a small window to achieve the record, Mass Effect 2 completely destroyed the previous record-holder: Poor, poor NFL Street for PS2 (with 325,000 units in sales, for the old record).

Though Mass Effect 2 certainly set a high bar for the quarter, Divnich's report suggests that game sales aren't likely to decline with blockbusters like Final Fantasy XIII and God of War III just around the corner. His firm also promises to closely watch sales of Dante's Inferno -- if the game can can beat its expected sales target of 500,000 units over the next three months, it means that those outlandish PR stunts were effective and we can look forward to more cake arms and $200 checks once Purgatorio is inevitably announced. Awesome.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>biowareeaeedarElectronic-Artsjanuaryjesse-divnichmass-effect-2Microsoftq1-2010salessoftwareXbox-360Fri, 12 Feb 2010 13:30:00 ESThttp://www.joystiq.com/2010/02/12/eedar-no-more-heroes-2-sold-30k-in-january/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/02/12/eedar-no-more-heroes-2-sold-30k-in-january/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/02/12/eedar-no-more-heroes-2-sold-30k-in-january/#commentsIt's sad to admit it, but we never expect any third-party "core" Wii game to sell well -- regardless of its quality or the hype behind it. Lowered expectations mean that when such a title doesn't absolutely tank, it's great news! And the sales of No More Heroes 2: Desperate Struggle, as reported by EEDAR in its "Retail Sales Review for January," fall somewhere in that "didn't absolutely tank" area, especially since the game was on sale for less than a week in January. (There's certainly room for a few more people to go out and pick it up, though.)

"No More Heroes 2: Desperate Struggle has scored top reviews averaging a 90 (out of 100) since its release," EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich said in the EEDAR report. "However, sales came less than 30,000 units for its first week (January 26, 2010 release)." Divinich compared the lowish sales to Dead Space Extraction and MadWorld, both of which also had "low marketing budgets, which is likely the wrong strategy to use when attempting to target the Wii consumer, even if you are targeting the 'core' market." When is that ever the right strategy?

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>eedargrasshopper-manufactureNintendono-more-heroesno-more-heroes-2-desperate-strugglenpdsalesubisoftWiiFri, 12 Feb 2010 10:01:00 ESThttp://www.joystiq.com/2010/02/03/accessory-makers-had-a-big-2009-to-the-tune-of-5-billion/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/02/03/accessory-makers-had-a-big-2009-to-the-tune-of-5-billion/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/02/03/accessory-makers-had-a-big-2009-to-the-tune-of-5-billion/#comments
There's a stuffy business piece over on Yahoo! News about how gaming accessory makers are rolling in teh moneyz -- at least $5 billion last year, according to EEDAR analyst Jessie Divnich. Rather than offer up a bunch of boring figures on which plastic guitar sold best, or who had the most popular Wiimote charging solution, we figured we'd introduce you to some of the very items that have made accessories such a big business over the past few years.

Firstly, there's the Trauma Center Kit, a favorite of home surgeons and people who like to look ridiculous while playing games. Next up, the gun. Or, more specifically, just "gun." We'd be remiss to neglect one of our favorite faux firearms styled after an aquatic predator. For those who prefer reptiles, this sensor bar holder was hit or misss. And finally, we leave you with actual video footage of some of the fine products that make up this staggeringly lucrative industry in action. We hope you've had a ball.

Now that the gaming public at large has had a chance to discuss Apple's iPad, it's for the analysts to weigh in. Speaking with IndustryGamers, prior to the iPad announcement, Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter intimated that he didn't expect the tablet set the gaming world on fire. "It's going to have limited appeal to gamers, although some people will buy it obviously," said Pachter. He elaborated that the device could affect Nintendo's DS, though. In the end, however, Pachter expects the iPad to benefit the iPod Touch, thanks to a "cross-fertilization of games" between the platforms.

Meanwhile, EEDAR's Jesse Divnich, speaking after the iPad announcement, said that iPad games would likely have to cost $20 for publishers to "treat the iPad as a serious gaming device." Divnich noted to the low barrier of entry on the iPad / iPod as the sticking point, saying that big publishers have a hard time competing with indie developers that can sell games at rock-bottom prices.

He further elaborated that the competition on the App Store stifles big publisher profits, which in turn stifles innovation. "The lower the profit potential, the less resources and desires there are to push gaming standards ahead." Frankly, that point of view seems to neglect that many low-budget indie games do push gaming standards ahead, but that's another post altogether.

The point is, it looks like gamers may not be flocking to the iPad. Honestly, we could have told you that, as the above snippet from Joystiq's company chatroom demonstrates.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>analystappleeedaripadiPodmichael-pachterWed, 27 Jan 2010 20:00:00 ESThttp://www.joystiq.com/2010/01/20/new-console-ip-up-106-percent-since-2007/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/01/20/new-console-ip-up-106-percent-since-2007/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/01/20/new-console-ip-up-106-percent-since-2007/#comments
If we've learned anything from the latest "Divnich Debrief" on IndustryGamers, it's to be careful what we wish for. Video game anthropologistanalystJesse Divnich has crunched the numbers and formed a surprising statistic: 106 percent -- the percentage increase in the number of new console game properties introduced from 2007 to 2009 (61 new IPs in 2007 compared to 126 in 2009). One hundred and twenty-six!

Surprised? We are, considering that we've pined for new game experiences, as we've stocked our shelves with sequels these past few years; all those 2s, 3s and 4s -- heck, we've got a spot reserved for a "13" in March. Still, we'd like to think our collections owe more to exquisite taste than a compulsive habit to collect them all. After all, as Divnich points out, of those 126 new properties introduced last year, not one received an aggregate review score of over 90 percent.

The lesson, as Divnich tells it, is that publishers are barbarians (see, the image does make sense). In other words, when we the consumers stop buying properties worn barren by those plundering publishers, they turn to mass-producing new IP, in search of a hit, which is then quickly ravaged (think: sequel, sequel, sequel -- in short succession) as the cycle repeats itself. The solution, Divnich poses? Simple -- for publishers to consider Blizzard's calm approach (at least it's worked on the PC platform) and farm their prize properties with sustainability in mind. We suppose that makes it our job to suffer excruciatingly long droughts, while keeping the faith. Who wants to join us for the seasonal StarCraft Dance?

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>businesseedarfinancialjesse-divnichMicrosoftNintendonomadic-barbariansWiiXbox-360Wed, 20 Jan 2010 12:30:00 ESThttp://www.joystiq.com/2010/01/15/eedar-predicts-ds2-will-be-announced-this-year/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/01/15/eedar-predicts-ds2-will-be-announced-this-year/http://www.joystiq.com/2010/01/15/eedar-predicts-ds2-will-be-announced-this-year/#comments
In a recent report, EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich has predicted that Nintendo will announce its next handheld -- let's call it the DS2 -- within the next eight months. Furthermore, Divnich believes that the product will be released within fifteen months. "one of the biggest reasons for Nintendo's success in the handheld market is their ability to remove opportunity gaps for competitors to enter," says Divnich, citing the early release of the DS, which effectively stymied the chances for the PSP a year later. Other reasons to release new hardware include the increasing threat of piracy and the specter of declining support from publishers (Ubisoft, for example, has announced plans to scale back support for Nintendo platforms).

Frankly, the DS hardware is getting a little long in the tooth; as such, it's not too hard to imagine Nintendo ramping up for the release of its inevitable successor. Hell, even Nintendo President Satoru Iwata has been talking about it. Or has he?

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>analystDSds2eedarjesse-divnichnintendoFri, 15 Jan 2010 20:15:00 ESThttp://www.joystiq.com/2009/12/29/more-games-and-players-in-2009-but-fewer-sales/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/12/29/more-games-and-players-in-2009-but-fewer-sales/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/12/29/more-games-and-players-in-2009-but-fewer-sales/#comments
The gaming industry wasn't immune to the economic turmoil around the globe in 2009, but it appears that more people are playing games -- even if they aren't necessarily buying "core" games. USA Today has a year-end piece noting that 2008's record $21.3 billion in US sales isn't in the cards this year, with NPD data revealing that, as of November, consumers bought 12.2 million consoles, compared to 14.2 million the year prior. An optimist could argue that'll be made up for in software sales, but we'll need to wait until January for that data.

EEDAR's Jesse Divnich reiterated that "the big games are getting bigger," indicating that blockbuster, marketed games are siphoning more sales from everyone else. Then again, casual games like Farmville on Facebook had 65 million players. A complication here is that retail sales may be declining (which is tracked by organizations like NPD), but we don't really know what goes on in closed digital distribution systems. The actual industry sales figures may be debatable, but we'll take the rise of casual games as a sign of demographic diversity within the industry.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>2009businessdivnicheedarnpdusa-todayyear-endTue, 29 Dec 2009 11:45:00 ESThttp://www.joystiq.com/2009/12/25/more-games-released-in-2009-than-in-2008-barely/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/12/25/more-games-released-in-2009-than-in-2008-barely/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/12/25/more-games-released-in-2009-than-in-2008-barely/#comments
Some people have decried the current calendar year for being light on high-quality games -- but they can't frown upon the quantity of titles released in 2009. According to Gamespot, the latest EEDAR GamePulse report reveals that 1,099 games were released to retail outlets throughout the year -- a slight increase over the 1,092 games which hit the market in 2008.

That's not exactly good news -- according to the report, more games (such as Modern Warfare 2) are becoming permanent staples on store shelves, limiting the amount of free space for other new titles. Also, the amount of expendable cash folks have to spend on these games is dwindling. But ... but let's not think about that, okay? It's Christmas. Happy thoughts, you guys.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>2009eedareedar-gamepulsegamepulsejesse-divnichMicrosoftNintendoretailWiiXbox-360Fri, 25 Dec 2009 11:30:00 ESThttp://www.joystiq.com/2009/12/11/eedar-2010-delays-smart-decision-for-game-publishers/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/12/11/eedar-2010-delays-smart-decision-for-game-publishers/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/12/11/eedar-2010-delays-smart-decision-for-game-publishers/#comments
With so many publishers intentionally pushing games out of the holiday season, Q1 2010 is shaping up to be one of the most competitive release windows in the history of gaming. Bayonetta, Army of Two, Dark Void, MAG, BioShock 2, Dante's Inferno, Lost Planet 2, Heavy Rain, Aliens Vs Predator, Final Fantasy XIII, Battlefield: Bad Company 2, God of War III, Mass Effect 2, Splinter Cell Conviction, No More Heroes 2, and Red Steel 2 are just some of the games to come out in the first three months of 2010. Doesn't it seem as though the industry is preparing for yet another cannibalistic quarter, akin to the holiday?

EEDAR's Jesse Divnich doesn't necessarily think so. He argues that "publishers who purposely diverted their AAA holiday titles into 2010 made the proper decision and will likely realize stronger sales with a post-holiday release than a holiday release." And the reasoning? The combination of Mario, Modern Warfare 2 and Assassin's Creed 2predictably impacted the sales of all other games. "High quality games are selling less units in the 2009 holiday season compared to 2008," Divinich noted by analyzing the sales of games with Metacritic scores of 80 and above.

Still, we can't help but look at the first paragraph with awe. Can our wallets even survive an onslaught of that magnitude? We have an easy solution for publishers: there's an entire "summer" season to consider when releasing games.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>analystdelayseedarjesse-divnichq1-2010Fri, 11 Dec 2009 02:30:00 ESThttp://www.joystiq.com/2009/12/07/divnich-wii-cant-help-but-win-this-generation/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/12/07/divnich-wii-cant-help-but-win-this-generation/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/12/07/divnich-wii-cant-help-but-win-this-generation/#commentsThough it's always risky to call a winner before the race is over, EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich figures there's basically no chance that the best-selling home console of this generation will be anything but the Nintendo Wii -- even if Nintendo were to suffer an unusually bad few years, and its competitors were to enjoy unusually good years.

Here's Divnich's "worst-case scenario": "For the Wii, let us assume a 25% decline in sales next year," he postulates, "followed by two years of 30% declines, and a 50% decline in 2013. For the Xbox 360, we'll assume a 10% increase through 2012, and a 30% decline in 2013. For the PlayStation 3, a 25% increase next year, followed by two years of 10% increases and a 30% decline in 2013."

Even with those unlikely numbers, Divnich says, the Wii comes out selling about as much as the PS2 has, and claims victory over the Xbox 360 and PS3. The reality will, of course, be much more complicated than the projection. Divnich notes that Nintendo is likely to release some kind of new hardware, either in the form of a bundle or an upgraded system, that will affect sales; "Additionally, we know that Sony plans to support the PS3 through 2016, which means there are three additional years where Sony could gain a tremendous amount of ground on the Wii and Xbox 360 by being able to offer an affordable Blu-ray player to consumers (very similar to the late success the PS2 had by being able to offer consumers an incredibly cheap video game system/DVD player)."

Still, it seems that the only chance for a second-place Wii is for the DS to eventually become large enough to count as a home console.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>analysteedarjesse-divnichNintendosalesWiiMon, 07 Dec 2009 19:00:00 ESThttp://www.joystiq.com/2009/11/17/commercial-success-dependent-on-more-than-just-quality-divnic/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/11/17/commercial-success-dependent-on-more-than-just-quality-divnic/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/11/17/commercial-success-dependent-on-more-than-just-quality-divnic/#commentsPictured: A successful commercial
Speaking during a presentation at the recent Montreal International Game Summit (as covered by Edge), EEDAR Director of Analyst Services Jesse Divnich highlighted a tenuous connection between game review scores and commercial success. In the case of Nintendo's DS, Divnich is quoted as saying "scores don't matter." But do they matter among a more dedicated gaming audience?

"When we did compare Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 only games, we did, to no surprise, find that review scores highly correlated to sales," Divnich told Joystiq. "However, marketing correlation was still just a tad bit more." According to EEDAR's research, marketing has played the "more crucial role" with DS games and, to some degree, Wii games (a point Nintendo's Reggie Fils-Aime seems to agree on).

While emphasizing that his aim was not to dismiss the value of critical evaluation, Divnich suggested that marketing plays a more persuasive role in what has become a burgeoning industry. "Video games are now a mass marketed product, it is a product that targets all major demographics, very similar to television or movies or any other sector within the entertainment division." While Joystiq readers may lock out the din of marketing as they tap the F5 key and anxiously wait for review embargoes to lift, the industry has grown to encompass people who aren't as exposed to the likes of Metacritic.

It seems that being informed takes precedence over being entertained -- at least until you start playing the game. "Quality does matter," concluded Divnich, "but marketing matters just a little bit more."

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>advertisingDSeedarjesse-divnichmarketingNintendoreviewssalesWiiTue, 17 Nov 2009 20:15:00 ESThttp://www.joystiq.com/2009/11/13/eedar-blame-low-industry-sales-on-casual-gamers/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/11/13/eedar-blame-low-industry-sales-on-casual-gamers/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/11/13/eedar-blame-low-industry-sales-on-casual-gamers/#commentsEEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich recently told Industry Gamers that the low sales reported by NPD in October can be attributed mainly to casual gamers. Specifically, he placed the blame on "non-traditional and casual gamers who have failed to make follow-up purchases." Conversely, Divnich said that core game sales have been "quite healthy" throughout 2009. So, what can drive casual gamers back to the cash register? "it will take the introduction of some new style of gameplay or peripheral before we see a resurgence in the casual and non-traditional markets," said Divnich, noting that his company expects a new DS to arrive in 2010 (presumably a next generation model, not another redesign). In addition, Divnich believes that Microsoft's Project Natal could reinvigorate interest in motion-controlled gaming among both core and casual gamers.

Divnich also reiterated his belief that the Wii will remain on top for the rest of the year. He also thinks the PS3 could outsell the Xbox 360 over the holidays. He did note, however, that PS3 sales are "declining much faster post-price drop than the Xbx 360," suggesting that it's too early to claim any definite winners in the long run.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>analysisbusinessDSeedarjesse-divnichMicrosoftNintendonpdWiiXbox-360Fri, 13 Nov 2009 19:30:00 ESThttp://www.joystiq.com/2009/11/10/eedar-predicts-nintendo-dominance-weak-gta-and-brutal-legend-pe/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/11/10/eedar-predicts-nintendo-dominance-weak-gta-and-brutal-legend-pe/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/11/10/eedar-predicts-nintendo-dominance-weak-gta-and-brutal-legend-pe/#commentsEEDAR has released its predictions for October sales charts in North America. Analyst Jesse Divnich expects year-over-year declines for every console except the PS3 -- but also expects the Wii to regain its place at the lead, with an estimated 600,000 units sold. Divnich predicts that the Wii will remain at the top for the rest of the year -- based partly on New Super Mario Bros. Wii. Divnich expects the title to lose initially to Modern Warfare 2 in November, but pick up sales in the holidays and become the best-selling game of the year.

Other games expected to pick up in the holidays include Grand Theft Auto: Episodes from Liberty City and Brutal Legend. Divnich expects both games to underperform in October (coming in at under 100,000 and 300,000 units, respectively), but to receive significant boosts in the holidays.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>brutal-legenddemons-soulseedarepisodes-from-liberty-cityjesse-divnichMicrosoftnew-super-mario-bros-wiiNintendoWiiXbox-360Tue, 10 Nov 2009 14:30:00 ESThttp://www.joystiq.com/2009/11/05/analyst-sony-was-saved-by-the-success-of-the-wii/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/11/05/analyst-sony-was-saved-by-the-success-of-the-wii/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/11/05/analyst-sony-was-saved-by-the-success-of-the-wii/#comments
If you haven't heard, the PlayStation Wii is so successful, it pretty much prints money. Wait, Sony didn't make the Wii? Then how did the market analysts of DFC Intelligence come to the conclusion that "Sony was saved by the success of the Wii?"

According to DFC, the Wii's mainstream appeal forced Microsoft into a successful, but not entirely dominant position. "The main danger Sony faced was that the Xbox 360 would become embedded as the system of choice. Instead consumers flocked to the Nintendo Wii. The Xbox 360 had solid sales, but they have not been enough to give Microsoft anywhere near a breakout market position," the report explains.

Should enthusiasm for the Wii wane this holiday season, the recent price drop, coupled with with impending release of God of War III, finally positions the PS3 as a viable choice for mainstream consumers, the report notes. EEDAR's Jesse Divnich agrees, pointing out that Sony can finally utilize its leverage from the previous generation. "People who purchase a PS2 are more likely to purchase a PS3 in the future. Consumers, believe it or not, are pretty loyal."

Three years after the launch of the PS3, Blu-ray is also finally becoming a marketable feature for mainstream consumers, the report argues. "This holiday season Blu-ray movies are finally getting a major focus at retail ... Blu-ray clearly now becomes a strong selling point for the PlayStation 3." Undoubtedly, SCEA will create an ad that focuses on this aspect of the system that "only does everything."

While DFC's report comes off as incredibly bullish, it's understandable to see why there's some doubt over Sony's ability to capitalize on the moment. Let's not forget, this is a company that managed to fall from first to last place in the course of a year. "The cards are in Sony's favor and now is the time to make the most of them ... Now is the time for Sony to shine ... or else."

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>analystdfc-intelligenceeedarjesse-divnichplaystationplaystation-3ps3sonywiiThu, 05 Nov 2009 00:44:00 ESThttp://www.joystiq.com/2009/11/02/nielsen-and-eedar-join-forces-to-provide-unprecedented-game-tr/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/11/02/nielsen-and-eedar-join-forces-to-provide-unprecedented-game-tr/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/11/02/nielsen-and-eedar-join-forces-to-provide-unprecedented-game-tr/#comments
Stat-tracking firms The Nielsen Company and Electronic Entertainment Design and Research (EEDAR) are teaming up to deliver "unprecedented insight into the video games industry." Nielsen's data, which has brought plenty of controversy on its own, will be integrated into EEDAR's GamePulse subscription service. Nielsen gathers its data from 1,200 "active gamers" through a weekly survey, while EEDAR data mines and organizes using various categories.

The data will be combined beginning in March of 2010 and be available to both Nielsen Video Game Tracking and EEDAR subscribers. This may not mean much to the average gamer, but to stat-obsessed executives and folks in marketing departments, this is like licking triple-chocolate ice cream covered in bacon and honey.

Read | Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>businesseedarMicrosoftnielsenstatisticsstatsXbox-360Mon, 02 Nov 2009 23:00:00 ESThttp://www.joystiq.com/2009/10/09/eedar-game-sales-slowdown-turned-around-in-september/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/10/09/eedar-game-sales-slowdown-turned-around-in-september/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/10/09/eedar-game-sales-slowdown-turned-around-in-september/#comments
2009 hasn't been the best year for the games industry. Month after month, we hear reports of reduced sales figures, company closures, and layoffs. Things may be turning around, though, as EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich believes software sales during September 2009 have actually gone up from 2008, the first time in seven months thanks to strong sales of Halo 3: ODST, Wii Sports Resort, Marvel Ultimate Alliance 2, Madden NFL 10 and Batman: Arkham Asylum. All in all, software sales should come in at $715 million, a 16% increase over last year.

The music genre may be slowing down, but Divnich notes that "both Guitar Hero 5 and The Beatles: Rock Band have performed at levels ahead of retail expectations," with sales predicted at 800k and 1 million units respectively. The same analyst at EEDAR previously predicted that Guitar Hero 5 would outsell The Beatles 2:1. With NPD sales results dropping next week, we'll soon see how accurate Divnich's latest analysis is.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>analystbatman-arkham-asylumeedarguitar-hero-5halo-3-odstjesse-divnichmadden-10music-gamespredictionssalesthe-beatles-rock-bandwii-sports-resortFri, 09 Oct 2009 02:00:00 ESThttp://www.joystiq.com/2009/10/08/eedar-predicts-ps3-is-top-selling-console-in-september-for-fi/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/10/08/eedar-predicts-ps3-is-top-selling-console-in-september-for-fi/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/10/08/eedar-predicts-ps3-is-top-selling-console-in-september-for-fi/#comments
Three years and $300 worth of price cuts later, PS3 may finally hit the top of the hardware sales charts in America. EEDAR's analyst Jesse Divnich predicts 400,000 PS3s were sold in September, edging out both Wii and Xbox 360 sales (375k and 370k units respectively).

It's far from a landslide victory for Sony, but it may be the start of a turnaround for the long-beleaguered platform. If the hardware maintains momentum, the next issue Sony will have to tackle is software. While EEDAR's hardware numbers peg PS3 at the top, its software charts only show one PS3 game in the top 10: Batman: Arkham Asylum. With the remainder of the chart dominated by 360 and Wii games, it's clear Sony still has a long way to go in the console wars.

Permalink | Email this | Comments]]>analysteedarhardwarejesse-divnichpredictionsalesThu, 08 Oct 2009 11:29:00 ESThttp://www.joystiq.com/2009/10/06/eedar-37-of-wii-games-went-unreviewed-in-early-2009/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/10/06/eedar-37-of-wii-games-went-unreviewed-in-early-2009/http://www.joystiq.com/2009/10/06/eedar-37-of-wii-games-went-unreviewed-in-early-2009/#comments
In his latest "debriefing" on IndustryGamers, EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich suggets that the average score for Wii games may be improving because a significant portion of titles aren't being reviewed. Strictly comparing January to June, in both 2008 and 2009, the analyst group graphed the total number of titles released for the three major platforms and the percentages of those titles that were not reviewed (see above). The number at the bottom of each bar represents the number of titles released for the platform in the stated time period; while the percentage at the top corresponds to the quantity of those titles that was not reviewed.

Divnich recognizes that "while the Wii has experienced a rise in average review scores (from 60 to 66 in one year), this has come at the benefit of critics ignoring some titles that could have possibly dragged down the Wii's average." However, it's possible that such reviews could have also raised the average score -- we know, that's unlikey, but still. Additionally, the report notes that the unreviewed Wii games weren't "core-targeted titles," which also holds true for unreviewed games on Xbox 360 and PS3.

Divnich maintains that Wii games are getting better, but he concludes, "It is just coming at the cost of not reviewing the increase in casual and low-budget titles." He believes that a similar issue could appear occur with respect to PS3 and Xbox 360 as the consoles' casual demographics increase in conjunction with the continued growth of their install bases.