They've had a seat in the Victorian Upper House for the past three-and-a-half years. Mind you, they won it on about 1.5%, I think, one of those "miracles of preferences" that sometimes occurs under STV.

Longest serving MP to lose (probably; it's on 50.6 with 68% counted) is Arch Bevis, who'd held the division of Brisbane since 1990. Basically a victim of boundary changes.

Nope; ABC seem to have uncalled it. 2PP is currently 50.2 and primaries are Lib 45.6, ALP 31.2, Green 20.9.The other two seats currently listed as too close to call (Labor having edged further ahead in Greenway and the Liberals in Hasluck) are Corangamite (ALP 50.0) and Lindsay (ALP 50.2). Labor are (just about) ahead on primaries in the latter. I think that's a seat where the Greenies didn't go along with the preference deal; if it is lost, that'll be why.

But if the usual pattern doth repeat, then seats shall be added and seats shall be removed from the list as the days roll on. And because the ALP appears to have been more serious about postal votes than normal, we can't make the traditional assumptions.

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Something to reflect on again; the massive difference between Greater Sydney and the rest of NSW. Is the state government especially unpopular in the city, or is that the immigration issue at work?

The Greenies came second in Batman, meaning that it loses it's traditional position in the list of the ultra-safe. But at 58/42, the next Melbourne it isn't. The figures in Grayndler are 51.6/48.4 and Labor are very lucky that the Greens haven't overtaken the Liberals in the division of Sydney.

The Greenies came second in Batman, meaning that it loses it's traditional position in the list of the ultra-safe. But at 58/42, the next Melbourne it isn't. The figures in Grayndler are 51.6/48.4 and Labor are very lucky that the Greens haven't overtaken the Liberals in the division of Sydney.

Compare Melbourne, Richmond and Brunswick with Northcote in the Victorian State Parliament. All are 2PP Labor vs Greens, but the first three are between 2 and 3%, but Northcote's about 8.5%. The seat of Northcote is all within Batman, too. Brunswick is Wills, Melbourne and Richmond is Melbourne.

Is there any kind of general pattern in the swings? It seems like Sydney urban swung much more to the right than rural NSW, but are there are any other noticeable sociological-demographic patterns in swings elsewhere?

Logged

17:40 oakvale the people are bad and shouldn't be allowed vote whenever possible17:40 oakvale The average voter wants to end austerity, bring back hanging and put all immigrants in death

Is there any kind of general pattern in the swings? It seems like Sydney urban swung much more to the right than rural NSW, but are there are any other noticeable sociological-demographic patterns in swings elsewhere?

There had been an assumption that the badness in Sydney would be especially bad in western Sydney (various shades of working class, often immigrants further in, often actually quite well off further out), but while the swings there have been rather large, Labor has also done dreadfully in most of the rest of the city with a massive (relatively) loss of support to the Greens in some posh areas. Labor nearly came third in Bradfield and Wentworth.

A little crude, but until the postals are all done its better that way. Confusion over Denison and Grayndler (ABC have for some reason switched it back to ALP-Lib) has resulted in some seriously dodgy stripes. Note that in Batman (the lighter of the dark red seats north of the division of Melbourne) the Greens are placed second. O'Connor is a Nat-Lib fight and has been coloured the darkest Coalition shade. Independents are just in dark grey.

Weird. What´s happening now ? I´m rather unfamiliar with Australian politics. Is there a coalition likely ? And has it happened before that nobody won ?

There's 4 independants and 1 Green holding the balance of power. The Green and one of the independants are more than likely going to prop up the Labor government. The other 3 will probably go to whoever gives them the best offer. There's also a new national MP who won't sit in the Coalition caucus, but will probably prop them up.