Sunday, January 04, 2009

CRIMINAL MINDS: HIT US WITH YOUR BEST SHOT & LOSE!

Analysis: This is a three-way Mexican standoff. Fox's keystone new show against CBS' usual time-period winner -- both crime procedurals -- and then there's ABC's strongly rated "Lost" returning after airing on Thursdays during the writers strike last year. "Lie" has the "Idol" lead-in and boasts a fairly solid pilot, plus the dramas that best maintained an "Idol" lead-in have been the somewhat similar "Bones" and "House." ABC hasn't yet scheduled a lead-in for "Lost," but the show is considered a self-starter.

Likely winner: As a serialized show, "Lost" will drop at least 10%, yet will probably win in the demo. "Lie" could surprise thanks to "Idol." Either way, "Minds" remains a good bet to dominate total viewers. Also, Fox holds a trump card here: The network could swap "Lie" and 8 p.m.'s "American Idol" at any time to protect their new show.