This blog is devoted exclusively to American jobs and America's labor markets

Thursday, December 13, 2007

Labor Market Forecast

Forecasting Labor Market Trends from 2006 to 2014

On this blog we believe forecaster’s would have a bigger following if they would explain more about their methods, which are not that complicated. Forecasting requires a blend of technique and a set of assumptions. For example, forecasting labor markets for the years ahead depends on the continued physical availability of gasoline. Shut off the gasoline and forecasts go haywire. Lack of gasoline will affect all economic forecasts, but labor markets have their own assumptions and peculiarities, which if discussed and described will improve the credibility of forecasts.

The links here go first to the national forecast and forecast table and then to progressive levels of forecast detail. Second, there are things to know in labor forecasting. Third, there are forecasts of relative growth and change by sectors for high growth, slow growth and decline. Fourth, there is a discussion for each of the 22 sectors from the forecast table.

The Forecast

The national non-farm jobs projection calls for an average of 1.876 million new jobs per year or an increase from 136.174 million establishment jobs in 2006 to 151.182 million jobs in 2014, which is just more than 15 million new jobs. That is an annual growth rate of 1.32 percent in the years 2006-2014. The growth rate from 1990 to 2006 was 1.37 percent so the projected growth rate is just below the most recent average annual growth rates. The forecast table below divides the total increase into 22 industry sectors and gives a summary by sectors.

First, long term forecasts use different methods than short term forecasts. Monthly or quarterly job forecasts use the same methods and carry the same risks as forecasting business cycles or recessions and expansions. Multi year forecasts ignore cycles and develop defensible yearly trends based on movements in population, productivity, technology and trade in the global economy. The forecasts above are long term annual forecasts.

Second, long term job forecasts start with population changes. The civilian population over age 16 continues to grow. Since 1990 the compounded annual rate of growth equals 1.2 percent using Current Population Survey data. If we projected that jobs would increase by population growth it would be a decent long term estimate since we know a growing population requires jobs. We can do better than that because there is more data and we want some details.

Third, a steady percentage of adults enter the workforce. In 1990 the civilian labor force was 66.5 percent of the civilian population; in 2006 it was 66.2 percent, where the civilian labor force includes the employed plus the unemployed actively seeking work. There are minor fluctuations month to month but for the last 20 years 66 percent and a fraction of adults entered the labor force. In the future we can be confident 66 percent of a growing adult population will be working or looking for work. The percentage does not gyrate and if it grows it will grow slowly.

A predictable percentage of the population entering the workforce helps a lot in forecasting. From 1990, the civilian labor force grew at an annual rate of 1.16 percent, employment grew at an annual rate of 1.23 percent and we already know from above that the civilian population over age 16 grew at 1.2 percent. Because the population totals are so much bigger a change in the flow of people entering the workforce, or a change in the flow of unemployed can cause the rates to vary, but as we can see they do not vary very much. That makes it possible to move from population growth to job growth in predictable way.

Fourth, employment data is subdivided by class. Start with 144.4 million people employed. The first subdivision breaks employment into agricultural and non-agricultural employment. Agricultural employment is down to 2.2 million and its sinking: down, down, down. It is 1.5 percent of employment for 2006 leaving 142.2 million in non-agricultural employment, or 98.5 percent of people employed.

Non-agricultural employment has its own sub divisions for wage and salary employment and the self-employed which include unpaid family workers who work 15 hours a week or more in a family business. Out of 142.2 million nonagricultural employed 132.4 million are wage and salary employment and 9.8 million are self employed. The 132.4 million people employed in wage and salary employment are almost 92 percent of the 144.4 million total from above.

The wage and salary employment cited above are people working. They might have one job or they might have two, but they are counted once in wage and salary employment. At the Bureau of Labor Statistics they also count jobs as part of their Current Employment Survey. Jobs and people employed in wage and salary employment are almost the same, but not quite. If one person has two jobs, or for that matter three or four jobs, they are counted as one person in wage and salary employment, but the Current Employment Survey counts jobs so a person holding two jobs gets counted as two jobs in jobs data.

The wage and salary employment of people and the number of jobs both increased at the same annual percentage rate of growth from 1990 to 2006; it was 1.37 percent per year. Because some people hold two or more jobs the 2006 total of jobs is 136.2 million jobs, an amount nearly 4 million more than the number of people in wage and salary employment from above. These projections on this blog are for jobs data.

In labor forecasting jobs will go up if the population goes up and for national forecasts such as these we know population has been growing and will be growing. If the jobs in all 22 sectors increased at the same rate as the total of non-farm jobs then there would not be any shift in relative share of jobs and all sectors would gain enough new jobs to maintain their percentage of the total. More would be working but all in the same proportion from one year to another. However, growth rates among the sectors vary and make up three distinct categories of change, which are high growth, slow growth and negative growth.

Looking at the forecast table you can tell the difference of the three categories by the annual growth rates in the last two columns. Those sectors with growth rates above the non-farm growth rate gain relative share; those with growth rates below the non-farm average but still positive will gain jobs but lose relative share; those with negative growth rates will lose jobs and lose share. The 22 sectors are listed in the categories below with further discussion and background by sector below that. Remember the annual average growth rate from 990 to 2006 is 1.37 Percent.

The first category has growth rates greater than the national average for 1990 to 2006 and forecasted for 2006 to 2014. High growth rates in the first category include 10 of the 22 sectors that continue to grow and have a bigger share of America’s jobs. Ordered by growth rate(%) from highest to lowest they are (1) Administrative Support & Waste Management Services(3.78%), (2) Arts, Entertainment and Recreation( 3.37%), (3) Professional and Technical Services(3.05%), (4) Health Care(3.00%), (5) Construction(2.39%),(6) Food Services, and drinking places(2.28%), (7) Public and Private Education(2.17%), (8) Non-profit Organizations(1.94%), (9) Real Estate and Rental Leasing(1.81%), (10) Transportation and Warehousing(1.58%).

The second category has 9 of the 22 sectors with growth rates less than the national average for 1990 to 2006 and 2006 to 2014. Slow growth rates assure sectors with more jobs, but their slow growth assures they will have a decreasing share of jobs. Ordered by growth rate from highest to lowest they are (1) Finance and Insurance(1.36%), (2) Repair and Maintenance(1.34%), (3) Retail Trade(.94%), (4) Personal and Laundry Services(.86%), (5) Accommodation(.80%), (6) Information Services(.80%), (7) Wholesale Trade(.71%), (8) Government, Excluding Education (.54%), (9) Management of Companies and Enterprises(.51%).

The third category has 3 sectors with negative growth rates for 1990 to 2006 and 2006 to 2014. Negative growth rates mean fewer jobs and necessarily a declining share of non-farm total employment. Ordered by growth rate from highest to lowest or least negative to most negative they are (1) natural resources(-.70%), (2) manufacturing(-1.37%), and (3) Utilities(-1.86%).

Combined administrative support and waste management had 8.374 million jobs in 2006 with a 6.1 percent growth rate. Establishments in this sector sell almost everything they do to other establishments and not to final consumers. Only about 4 percent of the jobs are in waste management and even though jobs there are growing they will only amount to 6 or 7 thousand more jobs a year. The other 96 percent of jobs are in administrative support, which has quite a smorgasbord of services. Include jobs in office administration and facilities support, employment services, but also business services like telephone call centers and document preparation, and others like travel and reservation services, security and investigation services, building and janitorial services. Employment services have the biggest share, nearly 45 percent of the total.

Administrative Support & Waste Management Services has the distinction of having the fastest growth rate for jobs in the 22 sectors: 3.78 percent. The forecasted growth rate from 1990 to 2014 is a more modest 3.51 percent with an expected annual increase of 275 thousand jobs per year. Because administrative and support services has high growth it has a growing share of America’s jobs. Check the forecast table to calculate an increase of 5.951 million jobs. The increase is the difference of 10.576 million jobs in 2014 and 4.625 million jobs in 1990. If job growth in administrative support had been the same as overall job growth for non-farm employment jobs there would be 1.754 million new jobs instead of 5.951 million. Taking the difference gives us 4.197 million new jobs that increase the share of administrative support jobs in non-farm employment. Many of these jobs are replacement jobs for declining manufacturing and 1.836 million of them are in temporary help services. back

2) Arts, Entertainment and Recreation

Establishments in arts, entertainment and recreation had 1.926 million jobs in 2006, which is 1.4 percent of non-farm employment. The arts and entertainment parts of this sector has art and entertainment put on by theatre and dance companies, orchestras, music groups, sports teams, sports promoters, racetracks, and independent artists, writers, or performers. Include museums, zoos, nature parks, botanical gardens and historical sites where there is looking rather than live entertainment. The recreation part of this sector has recreation at amusement parks, arcades, gambling casinos, golf courses, ski resorts, marinas, fitness centers, sports centers, ice rinks, swimming pools, bowling alleys, billiard parlors, day camps, riding stables and a few more. The arts and entertainment part has a little over 522 thousand jobs; the recreation part 1.4 million. Fitness centers are by far the largest employer here with over 500 thousand jobs. Golf courses and country clubs are next with 344 thousand jobs in 2006. Casino gambling jobs do not include jobs at casino gambling hotels, those jobs are in accommodations. However, gambling as a drop in recreation has 137 thousand jobs and a higher growth rate than any other part of recreation, averaging above 9 percent a year starting in 1990.

Arts, entertainment and recreation services sector has fast growth from the forecast table, actually second fastest growth with an annual rate of 3.37 percent since 1990. Check the forecast table to calculate 1.225 million new jobs, which is the difference of 2.360 million jobs in 2014 and 1.133 million jobs in 1990. If job growth in arts, entertainment and recreation services equaled the growth rate for non-farm employment there would be only 430 thousand new jobs instead of 1.227 million. Taking the difference of 1.227 million from 430 thousand equals 797 thousand of the new jobs that increase the share of arts, entertainment and recreation jobs in non-farm employment. back

3) Professional, Scientific and Technical Services

Professional, Scientific and Technical Services had 7.371 million jobs in 2006 and 5.4 percent of non-farm jobs. It has “establishments that specialize in performing professional, scientific and technical activities for others.” That comes directly from the North American Industry Classification Manual. The manual goes on to explain that establishments in this sector use processes where human capital is the major input. “Establishments rely on employee skills and knowledge to deliver expertise to clients.” Computer system design and related services is the biggest of the service sectors here with almost 1.278 million jobs out of 7.371 million jobs reported in the forecast table. Legal services are next with about 1.173 million jobs followed by management and technical consulting services, accounting and related services, engineering services, scientific development and research services, advertising and related services, public relations services, architectural services, veterinary services, interior and graphic design services.

Most of the professional occupations that require specialized degree training have employment somewhere among these services. Include lawyers, engineers, architects, accountants, graphic designers, veterinarians. With research services in this sector there are also jobs for chemists, physicists, epidemiologists and a few more. Most of the services and the occupations that go with them continue to increase faster than the non-farm average. Because the manufacturing sector uses many engineers and manufacturing jobs are in decline, some of the growth in engineering jobs in this sector is net of losses in manufacturing.

Professional, Scientific and Technical services has the third highest job growth from the forecast table with a yearly average growth in jobs of 3.05 percent. Check the forecast table to calculate 4.226 million new jobs, which is the difference of 8.783 million jobs in 2014 and 4.557 million jobs in 1990. If job growth in professional, scientific and technical services equaled the growth rate for non-farm employment jobs there would be only 1.728 million new jobs instead of 4.226 million. Taking the difference gives 2.498 million of the new jobs that increase the share of these jobs in non-farm employment. back

4) Health Care Services

Establishments in the health care have 14.9 million jobs in 2006, nearly 11 percent of non-farm employment. It has jobs divided among four health care sub-sectors: ambulatory care, hospital care, nursing and residential care and social assistance. The biggest share of the jobs, more than 35 percent, classify as ambulatory care in offices of physicians, outpatient care centers, lab services and home health services. Hospitals are next with nearly 30 percent of jobs although ambulatory health care continues to grow faster than hospital employment. Nursing and residential care have around 20 percent of jobs. Fourth and last, there is social assistance which has 2.3 million jobs. However, 806 thousand of these jobs are in child day care centers, which the North American Industry Classification Committee decided to put in the health care sector. Other establishments in social assistance have jobs in family assistance services, community, emergency, relief and rehabilitation services. The sub-sector employs many social workers and counselors.

Health care in all four sub-sectors has the fourth highest job growth from the forecast table with a yearly average growth in jobs of 3.00 percent. Check the forecast table to calculate an increase of 8.280 million jobs, which is the difference of 17.575 million jobs in 2014 and 9.295 million jobs in 1990. If job growth in health care equaled overall job growth for non-farm employment jobs there would be 3.525 million new jobs instead of 8.280 million. Taking the difference gives 4.755 million of the new jobs that increase the share of health care jobs in non-farm employment. back

5) Construction

Establishments in construction had 7.69 million jobs in 2006 with 5.9 percent of non-farm employment. Construction has jobs in three sub sectors, building construction, construction in civil engineering, especially highways, streets, bridges, utility and water-sewer systems and a third sub sector, specialty trade contractors. Building construction has 1.8 million jobs with a little over 1 million of the jobs in residential construction. Around 63 percent or 4.9 million of the jobs are in specialty trades, which are electric, plumbing, roofing, masonry and the building trades. These jobs support other construction but mostly in residential construction.

Construction has the fifth highest job growth from the forecast table with a yearly average growth in jobs of 2.39 percent. It is the only sector in goods production that we can count on for new jobs. Check the forecast table to calculate 3.569 million new jobs, which is the difference of 8.834 million jobs in 2014 and 5.266 million jobs in 1990. If job growth in construction equaled overall job growth for non-farm employment jobs there would be 1.997 million new jobs instead of 3.569 million. Taking the difference tells us 1.572 million of the new jobs increase the share of construction jobs in non-farm employment. back

6) Food Service and Drinking Places

Establishments primarily engaged in preparing food to order for immediate consumption go in this sector as full and limited service restaurants. They had 9.379 million jobs in 2006 with 6.9 percent of non-farm employment. Full and limited service restaurants are just one part of food services, which includes a long list of cafeterias, pizza delivery, snack bars, takeout, catering, ice cream parlors, and beverage bars. These are not all the jobs in restaurants just restaurants. Jobs at restaurants attached to hotels, motels or other accommodations are counted there. Accommodations, as you will see below, have only 1.8 million jobs so most of the restaurant jobs are here.

Food Service and Drinking places have the 6th highest job growth from the forecast table with a yearly average growth in jobs of 2.28 percent. Check the forecast table to calculate 3.954 million new jobs, which is the difference of 10.493 million jobs in 2014 and 6.539 million jobs in 1990. If job growth in food services equaled overall job growth for non-farm employment jobs there would be 2.480 million new jobs instead of 3.954 million jobs. Taking the difference means 1.475 million of the new jobs increase the share of food service jobs in non-farm employment. back

7) Education Services, Private & Public Combined

Educational services had 13.149 million jobs in 2006 with 9.7 percent of non-farm employment. The job total has both public and private schools including colleges, universities and junior colleges. Local governments dominate education employment with the biggest block of education jobs, more than double private education. Also include trade schools and other specialty training in language, fine arts and sports. Other supporting educational services bring in jobs in testing, tutoring, and consulting.

Educational Services has the seventh highest job growth from the forecast table with a yearly average growth in jobs of 2.17 percent. Check the forecast table to calculate 5.779 million new jobs, which is the difference of 15.099 million jobs in 2014 and 9.320 million jobs in 1990. If job growth in education services equaled overall job growth for non-farm employment jobs there would be 2.245 million new jobs instead of 5.779 million. Taking the difference gives us 3.534 million new jobs that increase the share of education service jobs in non-farm employment. back

8) Non-Profit Organization Services

Non-Profits had 2.900 million jobs in 2006 with 2.13 percent of non-farm employment. Non-profits have religion among other groups in Grant Making and Giving services, giving away money to worthy applicants, or Social Advocacy Organizations promoting causes like wildlife preservation and birth control, or Civic and Social Organizations like scouting, fraternal lodges, or social clubs promoting the civic and social interests of members, and finally Business, Professional, Labor, Political and Similar Organizations like the Chamber of Commerce, International Brotherhood of Teamsters and State and Federal Bar Associations. Include PAC’s here.

Non-Profit Organizations have the eighth highest job growth from the forecast table with a yearly average growth in jobs of 1.94 percent. Check the forecast table to calculate 1.265 million new jobs equal to the difference of 3.397 million jobs in 2014 and 2.132 million jobs in 1990. If job growth in non-profit services equaled overall job growth for non-farm employment jobs there would be 809 thousand new jobs instead of 1.265 million. Taking the difference tells us 456 thousand of the new jobs increase the share of non-profit service jobs in non-farm employment. back

9) Real Estate and Rental Leasing

Real estate and rental leasing had 2.180 million jobs in 2006 with 1.6 percent of non-farm employment. Establishments in real estate did not get its own sector in the North American Industry Classification System. Instead it is a sub-sector within a bigger sector that includes rental and leasing establishments that rent or lease cars, trucks, RV’s, appliances, formal ware, costume ware, videos, health equipment, commercial machinery or equipment, or just about anything you can imagine.

The real estate sub-sector has 1.5 million jobs where establishments sell, buy or rent real estate through agents or brokers but also all other establishments that rent, lease or management real estate for others. A small part of asset leasing has establishments that lease patents, trade marks and franchise agreements, but it has only 29 thousand jobs.

Real Estate and Rental Leasing have the ninth highest job growth from the forecast table with a yearly average growth in jobs of 1.81 percent. Check the forecast table to calculate 811 thousand new jobs, which is the difference of 2.446 million jobs in 2014 and 1.635 million jobs in 1990. If job growth in real estate and rental leasing services equaled overall job growth for non-farm employment jobs there would be 620 thousand new jobs instead of 811 thousand. Taking the difference gives us 191 thousand new jobs that increase the share of real estate and rental leasing service jobs in non-farm employment. back

10) Transportation and Warehousing

Transportation and warehousing services had 4.465 million jobs in 2006 with 3.28 percent of non-farm employment. Establishments hauling freight and moving passengers in modal transportation have 2.6 million of the jobs as part of air, rail, water, pipeline, truck, bus, taxi, and limousines services. Truck transportation firms have 1.4 million of these jobs, more than half of modal transportation employment. Include transportation support services, couriers and messenger services and warehouse and storage firms, which have another 1.819 million jobs as part of the transportation sector. Support activities defy easy description, but employ 571 thousand in jobs providing services for port, terminal and harbor operations and airports with work in loading, unloading, navigation, logistics, packing, crating, and towing, but very little transporting.

Transportation and warehousing services have the tenth highest job growth from the forecast table with a yearly average growth in jobs of 1.58 percent. Check the forecast table to calculate 1.485 million new jobs, which is the difference of 4.961 million jobs in 2014 and 3.476 million jobs in 1990. If job growth in transportation and warehousing services equaled overall job growth for non-farm employment jobs there would be 1.318 million new jobs instead of 1.485 million. Taking the difference tells us 166 thousand of the new jobs will increase the share of transportation and warehousing services jobs in non-farm employment. back

Finance and insurance services had 6.183 million jobs in 2006 with 4.54 percent of non-farm employment. Finance and insurance has establishments that accept deposits and make loans. These were formerly known as banks, savings and loan and credit unions, but in the North American Industry Classification these and a few others like credit card issuers, consumer lenders, and real estate credit firms are known as Credit Intermediaries. Credit Intermediaries had 2.936 million jobs in 2006, or 47 percent of the total of 6.183 million finance and insurance jobs in 2006. Next are 817 thousand jobs in establishments that buy and sell someone else’s stocks and bonds for a fee or commission: stock brokers and investment bankers. Include 2.315 million jobs in a third sub sector: insurance carriers. Finally there are establishments that manage funds and trusts: pension funds, mutual funds, but with only 93 thousand jobs. Money is so complicated.

Finance and insurance has slow growth, but just .01 percent below the non-farm average from the forecast table with yearly average growth in jobs of 1.36 percent. Check the forecast table to calculate 1.751 million new jobs, which is the difference of 6.730 million jobs in 2014 and 4.979 million jobs in 1990. If job growth in finance and insurance services equaled the growth rate for non-farm employment there would be 1.888 million new jobs instead of 1.791 million. Taking the difference equals the number of new jobs required to prevent a percentage decrease in the share of finance and insurance services jobs. Finance and insurance needed 137 thousand more new jobs to keep its share of non-farm employment. back

2) Repair and Maintenance Services

Establishments in repair and maintenance services had 1.248 million jobs in 2006, but the majority of jobs are repairing cars and trucks. America has nearly 900 thousand people fixing cars, or if you notice at the DMV they called them vehicles. That total includes 150 thousand employed at car washes along with jobs at repair shops, bump shops and auto glass replacement. Car crashes reduce our well-being but create jobs and production adding to the gross domestic product.

The rest of repair and maintenance has 361 thousand jobs at establishments fixing or maintaining commercial machinery and electronic equipment or fixing household goods. Almost 180 thousand fix commercial machinery and another 104 thousand fix electronic and electronics equipment, especially computers. Establishments doing household repairs for lawnmowers, appliances, shoe repair, watch repair, upholstery and a few more have around 78 thousand jobs.

Repair and maintenance services has slow growth but just a few hundredths below the non-farm average from the forecast table with yearly average growth in jobs of 1.34 percent. Check the forecast table to calculate 439 thousand new jobs, which is the difference of 1.448 million jobs in 2014 and 1.009 million jobs in 1990. If job growth in repair and maintenance services equaled overall job growth for non-farm employment there would be 383 thousand new jobs instead of 439 thousand. Taking the difference gives us a gain of 56 thousand new jobs. Even though repair and maintenance has been growing just below the non-farm average between 1990 and 2006, its growth rate is forecast to be above the non-farm growth rate so it will gain a small share of non-farm jobs for 2014. back

3) Retail Trade

Retail trade had 15.321million jobs in 2006 with 11.25 percent of non-farm employment. Retail establishments sell goods to final consumers classified in 12 retail sub sectors. General merchandise stores have the most jobs, 2.9 million. General merchandise includes department stores, warehouse stores and super centers. Food and Beverages stores follow closely with 2.8 million jobs. Together they have 37 percent of retail jobs. Motor vehicle and parts dealers has third place with 1.9 million jobs. Among the remaining nine sub-sectors only Building Material and Garden Supply stores and Clothing Stores have more than a million jobs. Furniture and home furnishings, electronic and appliance stores, health and personal care stores, gasoline stations, sport, hobby and music stores, pet supply stores, and non-store retailers round out the sub sectors.

Retail trade has slow job growth from the forecast table with a yearly average growth in jobs of .94 percent. Check the forecast table and calculate 3.706 million new jobs, which is the difference of 16.889 million jobs in 2014 and 13.183 million jobs in 1990. If job growth in retail trade equaled overall job growth for non-farm employment there would be 4.999 million new jobs instead of the 3.709 million. Taking the difference equals the number of new jobs required to prevent a percentage decrease in the share of retail services jobs. Retail trade needed 1.293 million more new jobs to keep its share of non-farm employment. back

4) Personal and Laundry Services

Personal and Laundry services had 1.3 million jobs in 2006, which was just below one percent of non-farm establishment employment. The personal services part has most of the jobs, almost a million. Barber shops and beauty salons have 475 of these jobs but the other jobs in other personal services include massage parlors, tattoo parlors, tanning salons, weight loss centers, death care, pet care services, photo finishing, parking lots, dating services, wedding planning, bail bonding and a few more, but you get the picture. Most of these personal services are growing faster than the non-farm average, especially parking lots and pet care. However, laundry services, which have dry cleaning, coin operated laundries and linen services have decreasing employment so the net increase keeps the total increase at modest rates.

Personal and Laundry services has slow job growth from the forecast table with a yearly average growth in jobs of .86 percent. Check the forecast table to calculate 273 thousand new jobs, which is the difference of 1.396 million jobs in 2014 and 1.120 million jobs in 1990. If job growth in personal and laundry services equaled the rate of growth for non-farm jobs there would be 425 thousand new jobs instead of 273 thousand. Taking the difference equals the number of new jobs required to prevent a percentage decrease in the share of personal and laundry service jobs. Personal and Laundry services needed 152 thousand more new jobs to keep its share of non-farm employment. back

5) Accommodation Services

Establishments in accommodation had 1.834 million jobs in 2006. The accommodation in the accommodation and Food services sector has traveler accommodations, not residential accommodation. Include hotels, motels, bed and breakfast inns, casino hotels, RV parks and campgrounds. The NAICS committee decided to put economic activity and jobs for rooming and boarding houses here. Rooming and Boarding houses include dormitories, fraternity and sorority houses, even though rooms at these establishments amount to transient housing in between travel and residential living. Residential Advisor has 56 thousand jobs nationwide with lots of those jobs at college dorms and fraternity and sorority houses.

Accommodation has slow job growth from the forecast table with a yearly average growth in jobs of .80 percent. Check the forecast table to calculate 389 thousand new jobs, which is the difference of 2.004 million jobs in 2014 and 1.615 million jobs in 1990. If job growth in accommodation services equaled the rate of growth for non-farm jobs there would be 613 thousand new jobs instead of 389 thousand. Taking the difference equals the number of new jobs required to prevent a percentage decrease in the share of accommodation jobs. Accommodation services needed 224 thousand more new jobs to keep its share of non-farm employment. back

6) Information Services

Information services had 3.054 million jobs in 2006, which is 2.24 percent of non-farm establishment employment. Information Services attempts to include all the establishments that produce, distribute or transmit information or cultural products. Establishments publishing books, magazines, newspapers, films, sound recordings or producing television and radio programming are included here so there are jobs as announcers, reporters, analysts, writers and editors. Film and sound recording establishments include jobs as producers, directors, actors, musicians and artists. Establishments that distribute and transmit information include a variety of telecommunications: phone service, cellular, paging, cable, satellite, Internet Service, web search firms, and libraries. These establishments tend to own, operate, and maintain facilities.

Information services has slow job growth from the forecast table with a yearly average growth in jobs of .80 percent. Check the forecast table to calculate 550 thousand new jobs, which is the difference of 3.238 million jobs in 2014 and 2.688 million jobs in 1990. If job growth in information services equaled the rate of growth for non-farm employment jobs there would be 1.019 million new jobs instead of 550 thousand. Taking the difference equals the number of new jobs required to prevent a percentage decrease in the share of information services jobs. Information services needed 470 thousand more new jobs to keep its share of non-farm employment. back

7) Wholesale Trade

Wholesale trade had 5.897 million jobs in 2006, which was 4.3 percent of non-farm employment. Wholesale establishments sell or arrange the sale of goods for resale, or sell or arrange the sale of raw materials or production supplies and equipment. Wholesale trade includes establishments that supply retail outlets, but wholesale jobs result from selling supplies, materials and equipment to industrial or construction firms and selling supplies, materials and equipment to offices, hospitals, and clinics.

Wholesale trade has slow job growth from the forecast table with a yearly average growth in jobs of .71 percent. Check the forecast table to calculate 975 thousand new jobs, which is the difference of 6.244 million jobs in 2014 and 5.268 million jobs in 1990. If job growth in wholesale trade equaled the rate of growth for non-farm jobs there would be 1.998 million new jobs instead of 975 thousand. Taking the difference equals the number of new jobs required to prevent a percentage decrease in the share of wholesale jobs. Wholesale trade needed 1.022 million more new jobs to keep its share of non-farm employment. back

8) Government, excluding education

Government Service, excluding education had 11.757million jobs in 2006, which was 8.6 percent of non-farm employment. Government excluding education is mostly, although not entirely, jobs in public administration for the federal, state, and local government. Public administration includes office work for executive offices, legislative bodies, and judicial and corrections administration. Jobs for parks and recreation, museums, social services, public health and other things besides office work go into the total that equals 11.757 million jobs.

Government Service, excluding education has slow job growth from the forecast table with a yearly average growth in jobs of .54 percent. Check the forecast table to calculate 1.711 million new jobs, which is the difference of 12.493 million jobs in 2014 and 10.782 million jobs in 1990. If job growth in government service, excluding education equaled the rate of growth for non-farm jobs there would be 2.378 million new jobs instead of 1.711 million. Taking the difference equals the number of new jobs required to prevent a percentage decrease in the share of government service, excluding education jobs. Government Service, excluding education needed 667 thousand more new jobs to keep its share of non-farm employment. back

9) Management of Enterprises

Management of Enterprises had 1.809 million jobs in 2006, which was 1.3 percent of non-farm employment. Defining a management sector results from the emphasis on reporting data and information at the establishment level. A firm can have many establishments scattered around at different locations where some establishments within the larger firm might be just head offices or administrative offices. Other establishments might be doing the firm’s productive work with some management, but establishments primarily engaged in managing get their own sector. Over 90 percent of employment in this sector is in establishments that only administer, oversee or manage other establishments, or do the administrative work for establishments that actually do something like manufacture products or provide services. The remaining few percent of jobs in this sector are at holding companies that own the stocks of one or more other companies in order to control them.

Management of Enterprises has slow job growth from the forecast table with a yearly average growth in jobs of .51 percent. Check the forecast table to calculate 176 thousand new jobs, which is the difference of 1.843 million jobs in 2014 and 1.667 million jobs in 1990. If job growth in management of enterprises equaled the rate of growth for non-farm jobs there would be 632 thousand new jobs instead of 176 thousand. Taking the difference equals the number of new jobs required to prevent a percentage decrease in the share of management of enterprises jobs. Management of Enterprises needed 457 thousand more new jobs to keep its share of non-farm employment. back

Establishments in natural resources had 684 thousand jobs in 2006, down from 765 thousand in 1990. Natural resources includes logging and mining, where mining operations have oil and gas extraction, coal mining, metallic and nonmetallic ore mining. Establishments with jobs that provide support activities go here. Natural resources have only .5 percent of non-farm establishment employment in 2006.

Natural resources have job declines and negative growth from the forecast table with a yearly average rate of decline in jobs of -.69 percent. Check the forecast table to calculate a decline of 209 thousand jobs, which is the difference of 556 thousand jobs in 2014 and 765 thousand jobs in 1990. If job growth in natural resources equaled the rate of growth for non-farm jobs there would be 290 thousand new jobs instead of a decline of 209 thousand old jobs. Taking the difference equals the number of new jobs required to prevent a percentage decrease in the share of natural resources jobs. Natural resources needed 499 thousand new jobs to keep its share of non-farm employment. back

2) Manufacturing

Establishments in manufacturing had 14.201 million jobs in 2006, which is 10.4 percent of non-farm establishment employment. Manufacturing in the North American Industry Classification System has establishments that do mechanical, physical, or chemical transformation of materials, substances or components into new products. Transform can be with power driven machinery or hand equipment. Those employed by the manufacturing establishment to do selling are also included. Materials, substances, or components transformed can be raw materials of agriculture, forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying or the products of other manufacturers. Manufacturing is sub divided into 21 sub sectors based on the production equipment, processes of production and job skills with 10 of these sub sectors in durable goods and 11 in non-durable goods. Durable goods generally have a life expectancy of longer than one year.

Manufacturing has job declines and negative growth from the forecast table with a yearly average rate of decline in jobs of -1.37 percent. Check the forecast table to calculate the decline of 4.394 million jobs, which is the difference of 13.301 million jobs in 2014 and 17.695 million jobs in 1990. If job growth in manufacturing equaled the rate of growth for non-farm jobs there would be 6.710 million new jobs instead of a decline 4.394 million old jobs. Taking the difference equals the number of new jobs required to prevent a percentage decrease in the share of manufacturing jobs. Manufacturing needed 11.105 million new jobs to keep its share of non-farm employment. back

3) Utilities

Utility services has 2006 employment of 548 thousand, which is .4 percent of non-farm employment and down from 740 thousand in 1990. In the North American Industry Classification utility services includes electricity, natural gas, water and sewerage services. Electricity includes generation, transmission and distribution, but natural gas is just distribution and resale. Water and sewer systems can also include treatment and irrigation. Electricity employment makes up over 70 percent of this total, about 20 percent in natural gas and just fewer than 10 percent for water and sewers. It does not include waste removal services. They are included in administrative and support services.

Utility services have job declines and negative growth from the forecast table with a yearly average rate of decline in jobs of -1.86 percent. Check the forecast table to calculate a decline of 224 thousand jobs, which is the difference of 516 thousand jobs in 2014 and 740 thousand jobs in 1990. If job growth in utility services equaled the rate of growth for non-farm jobs from 1990 to 2014 there would be 281 thousand new jobs instead of a loss of 224 thousand old jobs. Taking the difference equals the number of new jobs required to prevent a percentage decrease in the share of utility services jobs. Utility services needed 505 thousand new jobs to keep its share of non-farm employment. back