The
Great Flood of 1993, America’s worst flooding disaster, triggered
an effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s
(NOAA) National Weather Service
(NOAA Weather Service) to develop
a forecast system that provides 30-day advance warning forecasts about
the severity of floods. The system is now a reality and a funding
request in the Commerce Department’s NOAA Fiscal Year 2004 budget
would give it nationwide coverage.

Within
its official budget request for fiscal year 2004, NOAA is seeking
$6.1 million to fund the river forecast system, known as the Advanced
Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS).
AHPS is part of the focus at the American
Meteorological Society’s83rd
Annual Meeting in Long Beach, Calif., this week. The conference’s
theme touches on the human vulnerability to the harmful effects of
water, including floods and droughts.

Since
the program was first funded in 2000, AHPS has been deployed in flood-prone
areas of the Upper Mississippi - the source of the 1993 flood - and
Ohio River basins. New funding will expand the program to all NOAA
Weather Service forecast offices.

He
added that floods cause more than $6 billion in damages each year
in the United States. “The more time we have to predict floods,
the more time residents, emergency managers and water resource officials
can have to take precautions.”

AHPS
information comes from the combined use of remote sensing, data automation
and advanced computer modeling to analyze river data and create graphical
displays of flood probability forecasts, including flood-forecast
maps, pinpointing areas where flooding may occur.

The
service has been a boon for NOAA Weather Service meteorologists and
water resource managers trying to keep ahead of the next flood - or
drought. In full use, NOAA Weather Service officials expect AHPS to
provide significant lead times for flood events, as long as several
months in advance.

According
to a report from the National
Hydrologic Warning Council, AHPS - once fully implemented across
the United States - will provide $766 million in economic benefits
each year. Of that amount:

$243
million in benefits would stem from increased ability of emergency
managers and local officials in making decisions about reinforcement
of levees and evacuation of people from potential floods.

$273 would result from the improved ability of water mangers who,
under drought conditions, must make critical water allocation decisions,
such as whether to release water from reservoirs in the spring,
or hold it for anticipated agricultural and industrial needs.

$169 milliion in savings per year would come from improved river
information for navigation use, such as establishing cargo weight
limits and barge displacement, or scheduling river transportation
to take advantage of river flow conditions.

$81 million in savings would result from improved information provided
to assist energy managers in decisions that will optimize hydroelectric
power.

The
1993 flood covered 20 million acres in nine states, claimed 50 lives
and caused $20 billion in damages. Carter said the notion for AHPS
arose from the tragedy. “Ten years ago, a service like AHPS
would have made a huge difference. But AHPS is here now, and our forecasters
must have the opportunity to maximize its full potential. AHPS is
water information for a stronger, safer America.”

Not
Just For Floods

AHPS
also is critical during drought periods. “The service can tell
water resource managers whether to release water from reservoirs in
the spring, or hold it for agricultural and industrial needs. It can
also help resource officials price and manage water more effectively,”
Carter said.

AHPS
played a key role when drought conditions plagued Rhode Island, Massachusetts
and New York during the summer of 2002. AHPS provided low-flow information
to local emergency managers and for members of the special Drought
Task Force.

“This
kind of enhanced river information helped the main decision makers
balance the risks of using the scarce New England water resources
for irrigation, recreation, transportation, power generation and municipal
drinking supplies,” Carter said.

NOAA
National Weather Service is the primary source of weather data, fore-casts
and warnings for the United States and its territories. NOAA Weather
Service operates the most advanced weather and flood warning and forecast
system in the world, helping to protect lives and property and enhance
the national economy.

The
Commerce Department’s
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
is dedicated to enhancing economic security and national safety through
the prediction and research of weather and climate-related events
and providing environmental stewardship of our nation’s coastal
and marine resources.