SpaceX's Pioneering Flight

Start-Up Set to Launch First Mission for a Private Craft Attempting to Dock With Space Station

By

Andy Pasztor

Updated May 18, 2012 8:01 p.m. ET

Space Exploration Technologies Corp. on Saturday plans to launch the first private spacecraft seeking to dock with the International Space Station, carrying with it the aspirations of scores of other commercial space ventures.

Rendezvous

SpaceX, as the company is known, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, its sponsor, must launch at precisely 4:55 a.m. Florida time to put the unmanned capsule into the correct orbit for a historic linkup 240 miles above the Earth. The flight will be scrubbed for at least three days if the company's 18-story Falcon 9 rocket and teardrop-shaped Dragon capsule aren't ready.

The unforgiving timetable is only one of the technical hurdles confronting the Southern California company's much-publicized effort to accomplish something no other company has come close to trying. The flight is a defining moment for SpaceX, as well as for the leaders of NASA, who already have committed significant political capital and more than $2 billion through the middle of the decade.

The implications for budding commercial-space businesses may be even more far-reaching. If the flight is only partly successful, it still promises to be the "spark that ignites a thriving industry," former astronaut Michael Lopez-Alegria, president of a trade group pushing such projects, told reporters said Thursday.

Proponents predict SpaceX's efforts will boost public and government confidence in others already developing next-generation vehicles—and accelerate a new era of commercial entities doing everything from ferrying cargo and astronauts to blasting wealthy space tourists into orbit. If SpaceX managers are able to meet "even half of their mission goals, that would be a huge success," according to Jeff Greason, chief executive of XCOR Aerospace, a space-transportation start-up.

XCOR, among the list of companies striving to enter the nascent market, aims to charge tourists $95,000 to experience weightlessness. Other projects include Blue Origin, a start-up run by Amazon.com Inc.AMZN-0.11% founder Jeff Bezos targeting space-station runs, and established satellite-builder Orbital Sciences Corp., which hopes to launch its own cargo capsule later this year.

Entrepreneur Sir Richard Branson years ago entered the fray, creating Virgin Galactic, an extension of his well-known brand that intends to take well-heeled customers to the edge of space, but also foresees launching satellites and carrying experiments.

SpaceX's mission—capping months of nagging delays—is likely to inspire new entrants. Every year, Mr. Greason says, commercial space companies "get a little bigger; we're a little stronger and able to do more."

At a press conference Friday, SpaceX predicted somewhat better than a 50-50 chance of launching on Saturday. Stressing the groundbreaking nature of the mission, Gwynne Shotwell, the company's president, said "we really respect having the opportunity to attempt this."

Both previous launches of the Falcon 9 rocket occurred later than initially scheduled. This time, the timing can't slip even by a few seconds, because then the SpaceX vehicle would end up in a less than optimum trajectory and lack essential fuel reserves to be able to catch up and dock with the space station.

Saturday's predawn activity poses the biggest business challenge yet for Elon Musk, SpaceX's 40-year-old founder and chief executive. If all goes well, the two-week mission will serve as an endorsement of Mr. Musk's unconventional business model and, according to company and industry officials, likely set the stage for an initial public offering by the company in the next few years.

Started with a handful of employees near a suburban Los Angeles strip mall less than a decade ago, the former Internet entrepreneur has invested more than $100 million of his personal fortune in SpaceX. The company manufacturers its own engines and other hardware, instead of contracting them out as traditional aerospace firms have done for decades.

Mr. Musk also has recruited a crop of young, hard-charging engineers, attracted by the company's freewheeling culture and past accomplishments despite long odds. Given how relatively smoothly recent tests played out, "maybe we have set an example that things just work," Mr. Musk said in a recent interview.

Mr. Musk's team hopes to use a version of the same capsule to transport astronauts to the space station as early as 2017.

"What we're asking (SpaceX officials) to do is amazing," William Gerstenmaier, head of NASA's manned space-flight efforts, told reporters recently. More than 500 journalists from around the globe have requested credentials to attend the launch, according to a company spokeswoman.

In the face of such scrutiny, Mr. Musk says part of his job is keeping a lid on expectations in the event "something goes a little wobbly" and the mission doesn't proceed as intended. "You don't necessarily expect everything to be 100 percent successful" in any test fight, he said.

Mr. Musk said he is worried "some people will try to turn this mission into a verdict on commercial-space projects." A botched flight could set the budding industry back, according to industry experts.

For NASA, Mr. Musk's partner, the goal is to validate development of private cargo vehicles and eventually, fleets of space taxis to take astronauts into orbit. To accomplish this, the agency has fundamentally altered internal procedures by focusing more on fixed-price contracts and reducing its day-to-day oversight of commercial space companies, like SpaceX.

SpaceX,for its part, won accolades 18 months ago for successfully orbiting and safely returning the first commercially built cargo capsule to a pinpoint splashdown off the coast of Mexico. Until then, such a feat had been accomplished only by governmental space agencies. The December 2010 flight, much shorter and less demanding than this weekend's effort, wasn't without problems: the rocket experienced some engine hiccups on ascent.

This time, Dragon capsule's sensors, navigation computers and automated propulsion system, never before fully tested in the harsh environment of space, are supposed to maneuver the capsule in a weightless ballet to within 1.5 miles of the space station—and then maintain control as Dragon drifts closer. It will carry about 1,000 pounds of scientific equipment, food and other supplies, including clothing for astronauts.

If SpaceX avoids major problems during its first four days in space, NASA will give the green light to berth. With Dragon inching toward the $100 billion behemoth, crew inside the station will be poised to use a 57-foot robotic arm to capture and pull the capsule into a docking port.

SpaceX's chief says he is most worried about a potential malfunction of solar panels that provide electric power, as well as the ability of sensors and computer-communications links "to keep (Dragon) on an extremely precise trajectory."

Industry experts say the wide loop Dragon is supposed to take around the space station, followed by various other maneuvers, could be a problem if the capsule burns more fuel than anticipated. Without the required fuel reserve, NASA won't allow docking because Dragon might not be able to safely depart or properly position itself to re-enter the atmosphere.

Those worries assume that all of the rocket's nine first-stage engines, as well as its second stage, will burn and shut off on cue. From a strictly financial perspective, a successful launch alone would reassure many of the company's other clients, which have signed hundreds of millions of dollars of satellite-launch contracts with SpaceX. "That's what our commercial customers care about," Mr. Musk said.

SpaceX's leader, however, is determined to reach the space station. "If something does go wrong," Mr. Elon says, "we'll be back at it."

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