#12 Jefry Marte

Why Ranked Here: I was probably wildly exuberant about Marte to rank him at #8 last year coming off a strong GCL season as a 17-year old. His drop four spots here doesn’t really reflect an underlying change in my evaluation of what he is/can be, as much as it’s about a refinement of my own processes. Marte still has serious bat speed and some power, which places him among the upper echelon of Mets prospects. He can yank a ball out to left, and drive one to center, but does not go the other way with any authority at this point because he frequently lunges at pitches. He gets off-balance and chases breaking balls, but he’s still very young at age 18. His 49 (!) errors led SAL third basemen, but the Mets think he has a chance to learn to play the position at an average level, and that evaluation counts for something. Marte was not really ready for the SAL after a season in the GCL and really should repeat the level in 2010.

2009: Pre-ASB: .217/.257/.315, 7 2B, 4 3B, 4 HR

Post-ASB: .254/.307/.368, 14 2B, 2 3B, 2 HR

Hey, that’s some modest progress. Progress is good.

Dr. Pangloss Says: Impact bat at 3B

Debbie Downer Says: Hacker who never holds down an MLB job on a winning team

Projected 2010 Start: Savannah. Holding Marte back to repeat the SAL would most definitively signal an enormous shift in the Mets’ thinking with regard to the assignment of prospects and levels. Of course, St. Lucie is an option too.

MLB Arrival: 2014

G

AB

H

2B

3B

HR

BB

SO

SB

CS

AVG

OBP

SLG

BB%

SO%

XBH%

BABIP

08 GCL

44

154

50

14

3

4

13

30

2

0

.325

.398

.532

7.34

16.95

11.86

.377

09 SAL

123

485

113

21

6

6

25

117

5

5

.233

.279

.338

4.75

22.24

6.27

.291

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There are 15 comments

Also, his movement from #8 to #12 doesn’t necessarily have to be seen as a drop in the rankings. I mean, it’s all relative anyway, right? That he was the 8th best prospect in the system last year, he got better over the course of the season, and he is now the 12th best prospect in the system, says far more to me about the overall improvement of the system than it does about Marte.

Along that line of thinking, I wonder if it would be worthwhile to, in addition to a ranking, also assign a numeric grade to each prospect on some kind of scale of your own invention, perhaps a 1-100. That way, for example, maybe last year Marte would have come in at #8 with a grade of 71, but this year he comes in at #12 with a grade of 76. Plus, it might be interesting to make cross-temporal comps (e.g. see which prospects from the 2007 and 2008 rankings most closely matches that 76 grade my example assigned to Marte). It’d also be kinda fun to take an average grade of the Top 10, Top 20, and Top 41 each year to get a better sense of the progress (or regression) of the system as a whole.

I really like that idea. It’s quite obvious that the system has gotten better the past few years we’ve been visiting your site, but for those who are just getting into it, they would benefit from additional information.

How about a best tool section also, whether it be speed, avg., obp, power, arm, pitch, control. Kind of like what BA does in their rankings but each prospect. Maybe if applicable the potential tools if development goes correctly. It seems like you do a good job of explaining that in your posts, just throwing poo at the wall, but definitely grades.

Honestly, I like it better without either letter grades or the 20-80 scale. Best and worst case scenarios fill that void nicely. Strict grades where you’re picking a projection somewhere in between the two only serve to make people argue and make an evaluator look silly when a prospect falls short of or especially exceeds the projection.

Switching gears for a moment. Just wondering why no Shawn Bowman? I assume he is not in your top 11 (which has got to include Mejia, Martinez, Flores, Davis, Niese, Holt, Neuwenhuis, Familia, Havens, Thole and Tejada – unless Niese no longer qualifies due to ML service?).

Sure, Bowman lost several key years to back injuries and is now 25 year old, but he played well last year at AA – was a bit streaky, but solid overall year. Even with the injuries and more advanced age, would think he is worthy of cracking the top 41. In fact, it is very easy to envision him putting up a very strong year this year and winding up in the bottom part of a season-ending top 10 list (depending upon who graduates to the bigs). His defense at 3d has always been very solid, and he hits the ball with some authority. Really, just needs to stay on the field and cut down on the SOs. Of course, he is just as likely to either wind up injured again, or still swing and miss too much, but he does seem worthy of some mention.

You’ll get to enjoy his company this year in Savannah as well as Flores, as I predict they both repeat.

This way you can personally see a real prospect in Flores (who’ll be moved off the position in the future) and you’ll want to pull your hair out error after error with Jefry Marte.

Toby, you’ll want to go down to the field yourself and teach him how to field a groundball or throw it across the diamond. It’s like the movie Major League when the ‘young’ catcher can’t throw it back to the pitcher.

There is plenty of arm strength, just that it may end up in the stands or you’ll watch a ball go between his legs and you’ll just scratch your head.

I’d like to think it’s the reverse. It’s rare that an 18-year has “proven” that he can’t do anything – like in this case – hit a breaking ball. It’s more like he’s proven that he can hit a fastball, and still must learn to hit a breaking ball.

it might make sense if 18 year olds who could murder fastballs never had trouble with breaking balls while playing in a league far above their age level, or if plenty of plus plus major league defensive players didn’t have tons of errors in the minor leagues, but in the real world that’s not the case

Its probably because his control of the strikezone is extremely poor, his power is hardly anything special, and hes had problems staying healthy. He does have a good glove at 3B, but that’s pretty much all he has going for him at this point.

I think his best case scenario is Kevin Kouzmanoff, and that’s only if he improves his control of the strikezone (as in cutting down on the strikeouts) and shows a little more power.

If I thought it was easy to envision Bowman cracking the top 10 next year, he would have been in the top 41 this year, but I find that tougher to see than you do. Generally speaking, if you’re going to be an average or better MLBer, you’re already established by age 25, an age when Bowman is just getting his first crack at AAA.

You make good points and I understand your thinking. I tend to hold on too long when I see a prospect I think has potential. And that may be the case here. The only thing I see differently is his age affecting his prospect status. I agree with your general statement, but feel that he deserves a bit of a pass considering how many years he lost to injury. I sort of view this as his 22 year and feel like the past season and a half was more about trying to stay on the field for him than anything else. At his age, this year is a make or break year, and I could really see it being a “make” year.

Regarding Marte, I couldn’t agree with you more. It is foolish to think that an 18 year old player is so incapable of improving that he deserves a designation of “proving” anything. Nick, one of the few times I disagree with your posts. Not because I necessarily believe that Marte has superstar written all over him – he may well be exactly what you project. It’s just that you are jumping to a conclusion on such a young kid that showed tremendous promise in rookie ball, and struggled mightily the following year. Lets give the kid some time to develop before we shoehorn him and his potential

OOPS! My bad. Wow, your comment makes much more sense now (especially the playing 3B comment)!

So, what I meant to say is – thanks for the comment Nick. You and Toby absolutely are dead on in terms of what has happened. Odds are that you are probably right about what will happen this year as well. It’s hard to argue with it. Maybe I’m just stuck on this kid, but I do think he deserves to be treated as a 22 year old (giving him back the 3 years of injuries). So, I’ll continue to hold out hope and view this year as a make or break season for him. Maybe he can turn himself into a very useful 3B in the pros. Not a star, but a solid player, and there is value in that (even with Wright in front of him).