MUMBAI: India’s job market is likely to continue its downward slide for the sixth consecutive quarter, with opportunities for job seekers expected to be considerably weaker in the July-September quarter than they were a year ago.

Companies are likely to retain current staff or grow payrolls marginally as they await definitive signals from the marketplace, according to ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey Q3 2017.

The hiring forecast for India is least optimistic since the survey was launched in 2005, the US multinational human resource consulting firm said.

Only 16% of the 4,910 Indian employers participating in the survey said they planned to increase the headcount. About 1% said they planned to decrease staff and 61% expected no change, resulting in a net employment outlook of +14%, after data is adjusted for seasonal variation.

By contrast, net employment outlook in April-June 2017 was +17% and the corresponding figure for July-September 2016 was +35%.

Globally too, India has slipped on this count. Hiring expectations of employers stood at No. 7 in the overall list – after Japan, Taiwan, Hungary, US, Hong Kong and Turkey – among the 43 countries and territories surveyed. In the last quarter of 2016, Indian employers had the most optimistic hiring plans globally. Employers in all seven industry sectors in India expect to increase staffing levels during the July-September quarter.

The strongest hiring prospects are forecast in the wholesale and retail trade sector, where the net employment stands at +20%, followed by the public administration and education sector with an outlook of +19%. Transportation and utilities sector and services sector employers reported outlook of +16% and +15% respectively.

Manufacturing sector employers reported the most cautious outlook of +9%. Hiring intentions weaken in four of the six industry sectors when compared with the ongoing quarter, with the manufacturing and services sectors showing the steepest decline of 6 percentage points.

Compared with the year-ago quarter, hiring prospects have declined in all seven industry sectors. Sharp decreases of 28 and 26 percentage points have been reported in the services and manufacturing sectors respectively, while the outlook for the finance, insurance and real estate sector is 24 percentage points weaker. Employers in all four regions expect to increase staffing levels during July-September.

The strongest labour market is forecast in the south, where net employment outlook stands at +21%. Employers in the north have reported steady hiring intentions with an outlook of +15%, while outlooks of +10% and +9% have been reported in the west and east, respectively.

Compared with the previous quarter, however, hiring plans have weakened in three of the four regions, most notably by 6 percentage points in the south. The outlook has weakened year-on-year in all four regions.

Sharp decreases of 27 and 24 percentage points have been reported in the west and the north respectively. Employers also reported considerably weaker hiring intentions in the east, with a decline of 15 percentage points, and in the south, where the outlook is 12 percentage points weaker.