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Contents

Indicator definition

Definition:

The indicator "use of fertilizers' is presented as total amount of mineral fertilizers used per unit of agricultural land. Total fertiliser consumption refers to the total sum of nitrogen (N), phosphate (P2O5) and potash (K2O) used in agriculture. The time reference is generally the crop year (July through June).

Units

Kilogram per hectare for total use of mineral fertilizers and in per cent for change in fertilizer consumption from 2001 to 2020

Key policy question: Are we using fertilizers in a more sustainable way?

Key messages

Mineral fertilizer use is expected to increase considerably in the new Member States, but remains lower than in the EU-15 in absolute terms; this may lead to increases in associated environmental pressures. Best practices for fertilizer handling could significantly reduce the environmental pressures.

Key assessment

Baseline scenario

The following developments are expected for use of fertilizers:

Considerable increases are projected for mineral fertilizer consumption in the New-8 over the next 20 years. The use of nitrogen (N) mineral fertilizers, which represents abut 60% of total mineral fertilizer use in 2020, is expected to increase by about 35% over this period, while phosphate (P) and potassium (K) use increases by about 52% and 41% respectively.

This contrasts sharply with the EU-15 situation where the use of mineral fertilizers is expected to stay fairly stable to 2020.

This mainly reflects the differences between the EU-15 and the New-8 in terms of increases in application rates and yields.

The use of mineral fertilizers per ha is also expected to increase significantly by 2020 (38%, 55% and 44% for N, P and K respectively).

However, despite yield increases, it remains significantly lower in the New-8 than in the EU-15 in 2020 (13% for N at 64.5 kg/ha, 10% for P at 20.5 kg/ha and 23% for K at 21 kg/ha). In contrast, the use of organic supply on crops is expected to decrease slightly over the period; in 2020, it represents about 36% and 27% of total fertilizer use in the EU-15 and New-8 respectively.

Justification for indicator selection

Fertiliser use - outlook from CAPSIM model

The use of mineral and organic fertilizers in agriculture to increase cropping power increases environmental hazards, such as water and soil pollution, and has negative effects on other environmental components, interfering with the natural balance of soil microflora. High levels of nitrate and nitrite in drinking water are a hazard to human health. The actual environmental effects will depend on pollution abatement methods, soil and plant types, and meteorological conditions. Time series analysis of fertilizers consumption allows monitoring of its effect on the environment and enables preparation of strategies for mitigation of negative impacts of fertilizers on the environment.

The outlook presents plausible future of fertilizer consumption in European region and can be used for estimation of its impact on environment (particularly when it comes to water and soil pollution). It helps to assess achievability of targets and identify appropriate policy response options for making agriculture more sustainable.

Scientific references:

No rationale references
available

Policy context and targets

Context description

Pan-european policy context

There no specific policies adopted for for Pan-European region. However, the Helsinki Commission for the Protection of Marine Environment of the Baltic Sea (HELCOM) has developed recommendations for its Parties in this regard.

EU policy context

The fertiliser use is relevant to two EU Directives: the Nitrates Directive (91/676/EC) and the Water Framework Directive (2000/60/EC). The Nitrates Directive (Council of the European Communities, 1991) has the general purpose of "reducing water pollution caused or induced by nitrates from agricultural sources and prevent further such pollution" (Art.1). A threshold nitrate concentration of 50 mg/l is set as the maximum permissible level, and the Directive limits applications of livestock manure to land to 170 kg N/ha/yr. The Water Framework Directive (Council of the European Communities, 2000) requires all inland and coastal waters to reach "good status" by 2015. Good ecological status is defined in terms of the quality of the biological community, hydrological characteristics and chemical characteristics. The Sixth environmental action programme (European Commission, 2001), encourages the full implementation of both the Nitrates and Water Framework Directives, in order to achieve levels of water quality that do not give rise to unacceptable impacts on, and risks to, human health and the environment.

EECCA policy context

No specific policy context directly related to the indicator is identified at the subregional level. Indirectly EECCA Environmental Strategy emphasizes a need 'to implement practices for increase of nutrients levels' and 'to provide preconditions for facilitating production of environmentally clean food', which subsequently include amount of used fertilizers.

Targets

Pan-European level

There is no specific target for this indicator

EU level

Requirement for all inland and coastal waters to reach "good status" by 2015 (The Water Framework Directive (Council of the European Communities, 2000))

Limits applications of livestock manure to land to 170 kg N/ha/yr (The Nitrates Directive (91/676/EC) and the Water Framework Directive (2000/60/EC))

A threshold nitrate concentration of 50 mg/l is set as the maximum permissible level (The Nitrates Directive (91/676/EC) and the Water Framework Directive (2000/60/EC))

EECCA level

Some countries set national targets for the use of nutrients per hectare frame however these targets are not reported at the international level. Special research is needed to identify availability of targets at the EECCA countries.

Directive 2001/81/EC, on nation al emissions ceilings (NECD) for certain atmospheric pollutants. Emission reduction targets for the new EU10 Member States have been specified in the Treaty of Accession to the European Union 2003 [The Treaty of Accession 2003 of the Czech Republic, Estonia, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Malta, Poland, Slovenia and Slovakia. AA2003/ACT/Annex II/en 2072] in order that they can comply with the NECD.

Methodology

Methodology for indicator calculation

Projections of the indicator are calculated using the CAPSIM modelling tool which has been developed by EuroCARE GBmv (Bonn, Germany). The indicator is presented as an intermediate result within the model.

Overview of CAPSIM model

CAPSIM is a European partial equilibrium modelling tool with behavioural functions for activity levels, input demand, consumer demand and processing. It is designed for policy-relevant analysis of the CAP and consequently covers the whole of agriculture of EU Member States in the concepts of the Economic Accounts (EAA) at a high level of disaggregation, both in the list of included items (cropping and livestock patterns and animal products per country) and in policy coverage. Technological, structural and preference changes combine with changes in exogenous inputs (e.g. population, prices or household expenditure) to determine the future development of agriculture.

The modell allows combining different projections, for example from modelling tools, expert panels or trends forecasts, and finds a compromise between these under a set of economic (e.g. market balances), spatial (e.g. used vs. available areas) and technical (e.g. balancing of feed contents and animal requirements) constraints. The projections from the following organisations have been taken into account: European Comission (2004a); FAPRI, (2004); FAO (Bruinsma, 2003); and IFPRI (Rosenrant et al., 2001a and 2001b).

CAPSIM is augmented by a calculation of nutrient balances (N,P,K) and gaseous emissions.

Use of Scenarios and Key model assumptions

Baseline scenario

The baseline scenario follows a conventional definition and expands on current expectations regarding macro-economic, sectoral, technological and societal developments, as well as including those policies that have been implemented and/or adopted, which typically refer to pieces of legislation such as EU directives or political agreements.

EEA's outlooks across the various sectors and themes use a common reference set of assumptions for the key driving forces to ensure consistency across the board and facilitate cross-cutting analysis. This reference set builds on the socio-economic assumptions developed for the DG TREN baseline projections 'European energy and transport trends to 2030', which are also being used within the Clean Air forEurope (CAFE, DG ENV) programme. Within this framework, assumptions have been developed as a consistent set and cover the following key driving forces:

population

macro and macro-economic activity

household expenditure

number of households

average household size

energy flows.

PopulationThe European population is expected to stabilize, but gradually to become an ageing society. Main demographical trends are presented in the Table 1. below

Table 1. Demography - population development 1990 - 2030

Population (millions)

Year

EEA - 31

EU - 25

EU - 15

New - 10

1990

540

441

366

75

2000

563

453

379

75

2010

586

461

388

73

2020

586

462

390

72

2030

587

458

389

69

Average annual growth rates (%)

1990 -2000

0.4

0.3

0.3

-0.1

1990 -2030

0.2

0.1

0.2

-0.2

The age distribution in the EU is a growing concern, particularly in connection with pension and health expenditure and working life-time. While the accession of the 10 new Member States in 2004 has somewhat rejuvenated the EU population, it failed toreserve the trend of increasing old age dependency from 30% in the 1960s to 39% today in the EU-25.

This trend is expected t continue over the 2000-2030 period, with the share of people of 65 years and older in the total population increasing from 15% to 25% in the EU-15, and from 10% to 22% in the New-10.

Sectoral developmentsThe service sector is expected to retain its predominance in the European economy and be instrumental in sustaining economic growth. The base line scenario uses specific technological assumptions at the sctoral level, which directly affect most of European environmental concerns. The explanations of such assumptions are available in the European Environment Outlook N4/2005 (pp. 23-24)

The current CAP, assumed to be continued to 2020 in the baseline scenario, increases prices for animal products, both by border protection and market interventions, beyond the level which woul prevail in the abcence of common market organisations. This scenarion assesses the impact of an extended CAP reform on selected environmental indicators by assuming a continued liberalisation in the context of WTO negotiations for animal products market.

Best practice scenario for fertiliser handling

The effect of significant improvements in management practices for handling fertiliser has been assessed in this scenario, which therefore depics a more environmental-friendly prospective for the European agriculture sectors. Some sets of parameters have benn changed from the base year onwards:

N, P and K from organic fertiliser available for crop application are increased significantly respectively to 80%, 95% and 95% of the nitrogen.

The overall efficiency of farms when balancing crop nutrient needs and fertiliser applications: the overfertilisation rate is decreased (5%) and the New-8 converge towards EU-15 practices.

A stronger Euro scenario

The exchange rate in the baseline scenario is fixed at 0.9EUR/USD from 2001 onwards, in line with the latest European Commission assumptions, thus the Euro is weaker than current market conditions. This scenario assesses the possible effect of a stronger Euro of 0.75 EUR/USD. This would imply lower terms of trade for agricultural goods, but import tariffs and the level of administrative prices and quota regimes would dampen price transmissions between global and EU markets and stabiilse prices

Methodology for gap filling

The gap filling for modelling purposes includes nessesity for “completeness and consistency”. It is currently included in the COCO module.

Because the population data of CAPSIM differ from Eurostat population data which provide the bulk of the CAPSIM database, the projections have been expressed in index form (relative 2000) and smoothed with a Hodrick-Prescott filter to give a continuous series of projections of population growth. The same approach is used for (real) household expenditure.

Methodology references

No methodology references available.

Uncertainties

Methodology uncertainty

Any outlook exercise involves a number of uncertainties and shortcomings, related for example to the methodological approaches used or the scope of the study. These information gaps and limitations are inherent in any assessment of possible futures, and this outlook would certainly have benefited from additional information covering some issues.

The main limiting factor in developing a comprehensive environmental outlook has been the lack of data, information or models covering some environmental issues.

At the time of filling of this specification the uncertainties related to the CAPSIM model were not found in the reference literature (additional research or consultation with the EEA expert is needed). The uncertainties related to the data sets used as model input are presented in the next section.