That hammer is in the form of his signature on a three-year, $65 million extension sitting on the table in front of him. Just like it has been since this summer. The New Jersey Nets — who have contorted themselves like a Cirque du Soleil acrobat to make a trade palatable to the Denver Nuggets so they could land ‘Melo — will not take Anthony unless he puts pen to paper on that extension as part of an extend-and-trade (like Kevin Garnett did when leaving Minnesota).

When all the cards are face up on the table for this trade, Melo may not do it. He still hasn’t decided yet, according to Chris Broussard of ESPN, who quotes a source close to Anthony.

“He has not agreed to go to New Jersey,” said the source, who speaks regularly with Anthony. “I have never heard him, in all the times we’ve talked, say he’s willing to go to New Jersey. Not once. Personally, I would be stunned if he went there and signed an extension.”

Fact is, nobody knows. Maybe not even Anthony himself. He could still sign with the Nets, this is not a “no.” It’s not a “yes” either. The Nets are going to have to convince him by bringing in enough other talent so that Anthony feels he isn’t going to be wandering alone in the wilderness of New Jersey for a couple of years with a terrible team.

One thing he wanted to make clear is that his new wife, actress LaLa Vazquez, is not driving his choices or decisions. He spoke to reporters after the Nuggets game Tuesday night and asked people to back off from discussing her, as reported (via twitter) by Chris Tomasson of FanHouse.

“You all put this in bold words, LaLa has nothing to do with anything… It doesn’t bother me but people they have to write about something and for them to just come up with ‘She don’t want to be here…’ She has nothing to do with that. This is my career. This is my decision. Of course, I got to consult her with everything but it wasn’t one conversation I said where she told me, ‘Let’s get out of here.’

“It’s normal. You got to consult with your family about situations like that, decision making and that’s just all that we’ve been doing. She hasn’t had any say so on what should I do and where should go or anything like that.”

It’s a challenge to judge where Anthony stands on the Nets. His decision may have a lot to do with who comes with him. The trade being discussed — now apparently being negotiated under the Cone of Silence because not much is leaking out — is an at least 15-player, three-team trade that would send Anthony, Chauncey Billups and Rip Hamilton to New Jersey; bring Devin Harris, Derrick Favors, Anthony Morrow, some other players and a couple first-round picks to Denver; and Troy Murphy and Johan Petro to Detroit along with picks.

Is that enough for Anthony? Nobody seems to know.

On one side of the equation is the fact his agent, Leon Rose, and the team at CAA (including William Wesley) have worked hard to bring this deal together. That means he hasn’t told them no (as he has done with several other teams that inquired about him), and they have some confidence he will say yes. The Nets have long believed they can convince him that owner Mikhail Prokhorov is building a winner if given the chance face-to-face.

However, Anthony’s people in the past have said it was Knicks or bust. That is his dream. And at the end of the day it still might be.

The previous hang-ups were two-fold: the Pistons refused to give up a draft pick in the deal, and everyone was reluctant to take on the insane Johan Petro contract ($10 million over the next three seasons).

The first hang-up is reportedly resolved, with Detroit not having to surrender a pick. Petro remains a sticking point, as the Pistons are only willing to be the two teams’ cash dump partner if they’re taking on the least amount of salary.

It’s a massive deal in its framework, with 15 players coming and going, and this is outside of whatever fourth team is brought in to potentially take on Petro.

Denver would get two first-round picks, Devin Harris, Derrick Favors, and Anthony Morrow among other assets in the deal.

New Jersey is hoping that by acquiring both Hamilton and Billups to team with Lopez, that will be enough to talk Melo into the much-discussed extension, even without a sit-down with Mikhail Prokhorov.

The Billups situation is particularly interesting. Billups’ agent told FanHouse that if traded, he would opt to become a free agent this summer. Billups has been pretty clear about wanting to finish his career in his home of Denver. But in this scenario, Billups become the starting point guard for a contending team beside a star in Carmelo, with a legit big man in Brook Lopez, in a huge market in 2012 when the Nets go to Brooklyn, and he gets to reunite with former teammate Rip Hamilton. I’m not sure Billups will get a better chance to go out on top. Maybe he doesn’t care after already having his ring, but it’s enough to at least give him and his agent pause.

For the Pistons, you have to wonder if they’re simultaneously looking to move Tayshaun Prince in a deal to send out both long-tenured veterans in a short period of time, in an effort to completely remake themselves as a team of the future. With ownership up in the air, this appears to be a solely financial endeavor, but if they’re not getting picks back in this deal, they’re going to want to gear towards the future somewhere. There’s a solid core in place with Greg Monroe, Austin Daye, and whatever point guard ends up being decent along with Jonas Jerebko. Moving both veterans would give them a truly clean slate, so to speak, which they haven’t had in years.

We’ll keep you updated as this story develops.

UPDATE 8:16 p.m. ET: Woj over at Yahoo! has a further list of players included in the deal as it stands, which includes Anthony Carter and Shelden Williams going to New Jersey and Ben Uzoh, Stephen Graham, and Quinton Ross on their way to Denver along with Harris, Favors, and the picks. Chris Mannix of SI reports that Anthony will reportedly agree to an extension with New Jersey, pending the deal. Mannix says the Nets are convinced of that now.

UPDATE 10:12 p.m. ET: Woj at Yahoo! now reports that deal is on hold as Denver is contemplating whether they want more assets. The deal is on hold as of now and this could kill things. Two other teams have walked off from previous talks because Masai Ujiri decided to get cute by agreeing, then changing the bar height.

You remember when we finally got through “The Decision” and we were so excited because we wouldn’t have to talk about LeBron for a while? Well, Chris Paul has come in and hijacked our summer away from us.

Howard Beck of the New York Times, that fancy inkrag up New York way brings us news that Chris Paul has told a league official while in Vegas that he has not officially signed on with LRMR, LeBron James’ marketing firm run by Maverick Carter. From the Times;

Although he is considering LRMR, Paul said he had not yet made a
decision, according to the official, who asked to remain anonymous to
protect their relationship.

Paul cut ties with his longtime agency, Octagon, earlier this month.
He has hired one significant member of James’s circle: Leon Rose, an
agent with C.A.A. Rose is close to William Wesley, a confidant to
several N.B.A. players, including James.

So at least part of Paul is resisting being under the spell of LRMR. With Adrian Wojnarowski’s bombastic article fileting Paul for letting LRMR essentially run his life, (true story: the article supposes that James and Maverick fly around wearing cloaks and cackling maniacally) (that’s not a true story), Paul may be getting antsy about all the criticism of him being a pawn in LRMR’s game.

LRMR’s popularity is at an all-time low after “The Decision” and the ensuing aftermath, and this whole Paul situation isn’t helping at all. Then again, there are a ton of questions as to whether the Paul rumors were sourced from Paul, LRMR, or the CAA branch run by William Wesley.

It’s become pretty obvious that there’s a lot of confusion reigning regarding the CP3 trade rumors. Maybe after Monday’s meeting between Paul and team officials, we’ll get some clarity. Don’t hold your breath, though. You’ll wind up passing out like Cleveland.

That won’t stop us from speculating. We’ll use a shred of information to concoct entire theories. We’ll guess. (Complain about that if you want, but those guesses get a lot of viewers — you like it so we keep doing it). But we don’t know what LeBron James is going to do. In a world and news cycle that thrives on information, we have no good stuff.

Because LeBron James is on lockdown. He has tightened his inner circle way down — even one-time confidant William Wesley is on the outside now — and nobody has info. Brian Windhorst of the Cleveland Plain Dealer explains (via twitter).

At this point, LeBron has tightly closed ranks, only seriously talking about decision with a couple people. Which is why so little info.

Also, can confirm several reports of a rift between Wesley & James camp. Wes was indeed pushing Chicago, I’m told.

But let me say, LeBron & Maverick Carter relaxed & pleasant to stalking media (me). They’re having way more fun than us. Based on several people who have talked to LeBron in last 72 hours, he is giving impression he’s undecided after last week’s meetings.

William Wesley was the ultimate insider, and now he is outside. He was the guy pushing the “trade for Chris Paul now and LeBron will play with him” idea last month. He pushed Chicago. But Wesley benefits if LeBron leaves Cleveland. In Cleveland, Maverick Carter and LeBron’s close friends have a lot of power — power they would not have (or have as much of) in Chicago or Miami or New Jersey or New York. Wesley would still have his power, he could even fill the power void where LeBron’s friends lost out.

But the ultimate insider is outside looking in, too, apparently. And you wonder why the media has so little info.

You could try to read into all this — maybe Cleveland still has the upper hand if it is his close friends who still can whisper in LeBron’s ear. But that is just more speculation. And we’ve all had about enough of that. It’s time for information. And a decision.

The LeBron James situation has gotten so crazy that Bodog — the online gambling site that you tell your girlfriend you never visit — has taken down the odds down on where LeBron will land. It’s all too unpredictable for bookies right now.

“If LeBron leaves, Wes is going to get carte blanche wherever he signs,” one source told Yahoo! Sports. “He’s going to have the run of the place, and he doesn’t have that in Cleveland. He has access there, but Maverick Carter is the guy with the keys there. …[Carter’s] much more influential, and would always be in Cleveland.”

Maverick Carter and LeBron’s high school buddies may well push to stay in Cleveland, to remain the big fish they are now.

Beyond James’ own sentimentality and belief of staying the course with Cleveland, the best chance the Cavaliers have to re-sign James likely belongs to Carter, his business manager, and the high school buddies on the payroll. Should James leave for the bright lights and big cities, his childhood associates become less relevant, less impressive. “No one cares about those guys walking around in Chicago or Miami or New York,” one league executive said.

James’ friends have had the run of Cleveland for seven years, unchecked power within the corridors of the Cavaliers organization. Around Cleveland and nearby Akron, where they were brought up with James, they don’t need to have the two-time MVP surrounding them to be considered VIPs. Maybe that doesn’t end with James elsewhere, but it dramatically changes.

Sadly, this scenario is not all that different than what many NBA players (and other pro athletes) face, save that the push and pull on LeBron from his closest advisors is playing out on a grand stage. These players trust family or friends to be key player around them, to give it to them straight, rather than trusting professional agents and people with more experience. But those friends and family may be on the gravy train as well, they have their own agendas, and they don’t really know how to navigate the waters anyway.

The results range from falling draft stock at the start to bad free agency decisions later, not to mention missed marketing opportunities and the like. Family and friends, even well meaning ones, are overwhelmed by what comes at them. Then there are the people just there to rip off some athletes.

James’ friends are not there with the intention of hurting him, they see themselves as advisors watching out for him. The power play won’t be this naked. But the advice LeBron gets will be tainted with self-interest.