Performify's Picks for UFC 98: Big plays on Machida, Hughes and Sherk

Results of 3-0 for +5.2 units for UFC 97 brings the running total for my
public predictions since UFC 75 to 79-57 for +35.485 units.

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Evans was the heavyweight winner on “The Ultimate Fighter 2.” However, his normal fighting weight is here at light heavyweight. Evans is 29 years old and has a 13-0-1 professional MMA record, 8-0-1 in the UFC.

Evans is best known as a strong wrestler; he was a two-time All-State wrestler in high school and wrestled NCAA Division I for Michigan State. There, he was one of only four people to ever defeat legendary collegiate wrestler Greg Jones. If you don’t recall the name, Jones is one of the most successful American collegiate wrestlers of all-time, winning three NCAA Division I titles for West Virginia University.

Evans now trains out of Albuquerque, N..M, with Jackson at Jackson’s Mixed Martial Arts. Under the tutelage of renowned trainer Greg Jackson, Evans has become more well-rounded, but he’s still struggling to break away from being a one-dimensional fighter, and he has not yet consistently demonstrated either strong submissions or strong striking – a recent flash KO of Liddell aside – to match his wrestling and takedown ability.

Brazilian-born Machida is half Japanese and half Brazilian. He has a strong background in karate courtesy his father, Japanese Brazilian Shotokan Karate Master Yoshizo Machida. In addition to his black belt in Shotokan, Machida also holds a black belt in Brazilian jiu jitsu under Alexi Cruz.

Machida comes from the background of the legendary Brazilian-based Black House training camp (now reformed as the “Nogueira and Silva Mixed Martial Arts Academy” in the U.S.), where he trained alongside Anderson Silva, the Nogueira brothers and Paulo Filho. In addition to his usual training partners, Machida brought in Olympic judo gold medalist Satoshi Ishii to work against someone with extremely strong wrestling and takedowns.

Machida is a controversial fighter with a get-in, score and get-out striking technique that frustrates his opponents and leads to a preponderance of unanimous-decision victories. Still, Machida has demonstrated increased aggression in his past three fights: early finishes of Thiago Silva and Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou, and two near-finishes of Tito Ortiz in their May 2008 fight.

Machida’s highly technical striking and absolute elusiveness gives him an overwhelming edge standing in all of his fights to date, and his skills in jiu jitsu and judo mean that he’s tough to take down and control on the ground, where he has a strong top game and the ability to finish via submission.

I’m extremely impressed with Evan’s career progression; he’s made a strong effort to evolve from a one-dimensional wrestler to a well-rounded mixed martial artist. He’s become good at utilizing his quickness and athleticism to his favor in the striking game, as evidenced by his big KO of Liddell and his TKO of Griffin. However, Evans’ skills are still evolving. He’s less than two years removed from a draw against Tito Ortiz and only 18 months removed from a split decision victory over undersized Michael Bisping. And while his game has certainly improved since then, it’s still relevant to mention that between three and four years ago, Evans was eking out decisions (non-unanimous) against Stephan Bonnar, Sam Hoger and Brad Imes.

Machida’s amazing defensive elusiveness and elite striking combines to present an enigmatic threat for any opponent, but I think he’s particularly going to be a tough stylistic matchup for Evans. Machida has a significant reach advantage, especially so due to his kicking ability. While he can occasionally mix in kicks – just ask Sean Salmon – Evans primarily depends on his quickness to close range and throws short, strong punches. Against Machida’s ability to evade and counter and his superior ability to strike from distance, Evans, I expect, will be significantly outclassed on the feet. His only real paths to success in this fight are to work from the clinch or to put Machida on the ground. Machida’s elusiveness makes both approaches a dubious prospect; Machida’s sumo and judo skills allow him to work extremely effectively from the clinch, and he’s got significantly above-average takedown defense.

Most appropriate for those thinking that Evans is going to be able to significantly outwrestle Machida, I would point to the recent common opponent shared by both: Tito Ortiz. Ortiz generally fought Evans to a stalemate in both wrestling and takedowns. Yet, Ortiz was not able to outwrestle Machida in their fight. While we all know “MMAth” is dangerous since differences in fighter styles and abilities make “A > B, B > C, thus A > C” comparisons don’t necessarily hold weight, it’s still a reasonable assumption to make that Machida’s success in neutralizing Ortiz’s takedowns and wrestling will result in similar ability to stymie Evans at the same.

I also point to Evans’ lack of success in wrestling against Bisping (who was undersized at 205 pounds) as further evidence that Evans should struggle against Machida. And in the unlikely event Evans can get his opponent to the mat in a dominant position, remember he is facing a very highly regarded BJJ black belt, so Machida has the dangerous ability to threaten with submissions and sweeps from his back.

Evans has a disturbing tendency to start slow in fights, and he’s frequently given away first rounds in the past. A slow start against Machida, who definitely has a history of “running out the clock” on opponents, could be disastrous here. If Machida knows he’s ahead on the cards early, he can be even more defensive and elusive later in the fight, further closing the door on any of Evans’ “Hail Mary” power hooks.

I have been publicly predicting in these columns for some time that Machida would eventually hold the UFC light heavyweight title, so regular readers won’t be surprised that I’m picking him to win. Machida by TKO in the second round.

Matt Hughes (-260) vs. Matt Serra (+205)

Matt Hughes (42-7 MMA, 15-5 UFC) and Matt Serra (9-5 MMA, 6-5 UFC) look to finally squash the bad blood that began in 2006 with “The Ultimate Fighter 4” and escalated to a boiling point during “TUF 6.”

Hughes is undoubtedly one of the most dominant fighters in UFC history. The former champion put together two separate six-fight winning streaks in the UFC, won the welterweight title on two different occasions, and defended the belt seven times. However, he’s coming into this fight off injury (he tore his MCL and partially tore his PCL, but didn’t require surgery), and he hasn’t fought in more than 11 months. Most importantly, he hasn’t registered a victory in more than two years, and he is only 1-3 in his past four fights.

Serra’s recent record shows almost identical woes. He’s also coming into the fight off injury and is still struggling with the same back problems that forced him to pull out of the UFC 79 fight that was originally scheduled between these two. Serra said in the pre-UFC 98 press conference that his back is much better than before UFC 79, but he’ll have an even deeper sheen of ring rust since he hasn’t fought since April 2008 (UFC 83 against St. Pierre). It’s also been more than two years since Serra’s most recent win, the improbable knockout victory of St. Pierre to claim the welterweight title. Serra is 2-2 in his past four fights.

There’s a great deal of uncertainty in this fight, as outlined above. No matter which side you pick, you’re betting on a fighter with significant ring rust, more than two years removed from his latest win, coming off injury, and in the twilight of his career.

That said, I think Hughes is a very solid pick here despite the mediocre odds. Serra has long been overrated due to the freak KO over St. Pierre. His MMA ground game is legendarily overrated; he holds only one submission victory in 11 fights in the UFC, and that was over the undistinguished Kelly Dullanty at UFC 36. His “heavy hands” are also more hype than substance; other than the improbable clip to the back of St. Pierre’s head, Serra has otherwise never stopped an opponent with punches in his career.

Assuming Hughes is even a shadow of his former self, he should be able to put Serra on the mat, control him effectively, and pound him into submission. Hughes’ standup has always been sub-par, even when he was at his peak, so if his body has degraded to the point that he’s unable to effectively shoot or maintain a clinch, he could certainly be in trouble. However, I think it’s worth taking a shot on Hughes here based on the significant discrepancy in the skills between the two fighters, regardless of the various unknown factors. Matt Hughes by TKO in the second round after a lopsided first.

Drew McFedries (+160) vs. Xavier Foupa-Pokam (-175)

Miletich fighter Drew McFedries (7-5 MMA, 3-4 UFC) is a game middleweight known for his punching power as much as his lack of skills on the ground. While his power and punching ability gives him a strong “puncher’s chance” against any opponent, his limited skill set should put him at a tremendous disadvantage against “Professor X” here.

French fighter Xavier Foupa-Pokam (20-10 MMA, 0-1 UFC) is a Muay Thai specialist who trains under Cyrille Diabate. Foupa-Pokam also has jiu-jitsu skills with seven finishes by submission in his career (three of them in 2008 alone). Despite dropping a unanimous decision to Denis Kang in his UFC debut last month, I expect “Professor X” to cruise to a relatively easy win here. While McFedries is stronger and hits harder, Foupa-Pokam has a significant reach advantage and should be able to backpedal and punish McFedries with his kickboxing skills from outside without getting in danger of his opponent’s power punches. And while McFedries can finish the fight at any time on the feet, if the fight hits the ground with any significant time left, he’ll be quickly submitted.

This is a “pucker” bet – you’ll be holding your breath the entire time hoping that McFedries doesn’t connect on the big bombs he’s firing. But if you can handle the stress, I think this is a good spot to get our money in. Xavier Foupa-Pokam by submission in the first round.

Dan Miller vs. Chael Sonnen

This fight between two strong wrestlers could be an exciting grappling match, or it could be a lethargic standup affair since occasionally, two strong wrestlers will present a stalemate in takedowns and thus end up throwing less-effective strikes at each other for a full three rounds. Dan Miller (11-1 MMA, 3-0 UFC) is the more well-rounded of the two fighters, and he possesses slightly more technical Muay Thai skills and holds a brown belt in Brazilian jiu jitsu. Team Quest fighter Chael Sonnen (22-10-1 MMA, 1-3 UFC) has the edge in experience and is a slightly stronger wrestler, but he lacks the submission skills of his opponent.

If this ends up being a grappling affair, Miller’s submission skills should edge Sonnen on the ground. In the event that their wrestling creates a stalemate, Miller’s edge in technical striking should be sufficient to out-point his opponent on the way to a decision. While I’m hoping for the former, I’m expecting more of the latter. Dan Miller by unanimous decision.

Sean Sherk (-300) vs. Frankie Edgar (+275)

The UFC 98 main card opens with what should be an exciting fight between two high-paced lightweights in Sean Sherk (33-3-1 MMA, 7-3 UFC) and Frankie Edgar (9-1 MMA, 4-1 UFC). I expect this to be a dramatically one-sided fight; Sherk has a massive size and strength advantage over Edgar (Sherk, remember, fought much of his career at welterweight). Edgar, on the other hand, should be fighting as a featherweight. Gray Maynard easily outwrestled Edgar in their recent fight, and I expect Sherk easily to do the same. He’s simply too strong and will have too significant a size advantage for this fight to go any other way. Sherk also has a granite chin and fantastic cardio, so there’s very little opportunity for Edgar to win via striking or via outworking his opponent.

Look for Sherk to put Edgar on the ground quickly and frequently and to punish him methodically with short strikes from top control en route to a late fight stoppage or a lopsided unanimous-decision victory. I think the size and power discrepancy is so large here that Sherk will score a rare (for him) finish. Sean Sherk by TKO in the third round.

Undercard

Brock Larson (-325) vs. Chris Wilson (+250)

Brock Larson (25-2 MMA, 2-1 UFC) trains alongside Sherk and Brock Lesnar under Greg Nelson at the Minnesota Martial Arts Academy. It’s no coincidence that all three have similar styles. All three have tremendous strength, world-class cardio, and each sets a frenetic pace. All three aren’t extremely well-rounded, but they all have built up an impressive resume by overwhelming opponents with wrestling skills and strength.

Team Quest fighter Chris Wilson (14-5 MMA, 1-2 UFC) is a solid wrestler with good kickboxing skills and some submission skills. I expect Wilson to be quickly outmatched in this fight. Larson’s only real weakness is some vulnerability to submissions (Carlos Condit stopped him via armbar at WEC 29), but Wilson hasn’t previously demonstrated the type of submission skills from his back to threaten his opponent – especially assuming he’s being plastered by Larson’s high-energy ground and pound the instant the fight hits the mat (which should be about three seconds after the two fighters touch gloves).

Brock Larson via TKO, round one.

Pat Barry (-500) vs. Tim Hague (+300)

Pat Barry (4-0 MMA, 1-0 UFC) is a strong kickboxer but is undersized for a heavyweight. He made his octagon debut at UFC 92, where he defeated Dan Evensen by TKO due to leg kicks.

Canadian Tim Hague (9-1 MMA, 0-0 UFC) is a veteran of the King of the Cage organization and is balanced as a heavy striker who also holds a BJJ blue belt. The UFC newcomer is on the big end of the heavyweight range and typically weighs in right around the 265-pound limit.

Barry will give up a significant height and weight disadvantage to his opponent, but he should hold a significant edge in quickness and in technical-striking ability that should allow him to hobble the slow-moving Hague with a couple devastating leg kicks early and then pick him apart from range thereafter.

Pat Barry by KO in the first round. I’m relatively confident this fight should make it to the main card; it has all the ingredients necessary to deliver a highlight-reel finish in either direction.

Phillipe Nover (-345) vs. Kyle Bradley (+285)

Filipino-American fighter Phillipe Nover (5-1 MMA, 0-1 UFC) was hyped by Dana White as the second coming of Anderson Silva prior to his appearance on the eighth season of “The Ultimate Fighter.” While Nover lost in the finals to Efrain Escudero, it’s worth noting that Nover is a natural welterweight and only cut to lightweight for the show. Now that he’s got a bit more experience dealing with the weight difference, I expect him to find quite a bit more success against Kyle Bradley (13-6 MMA, 0-2 UFC).

Bradley is a former amateur boxer and trains BJJ under Rich Clementi and Tim Credeur, and he should be fighting like his career depends on it since he’s unlikely to remain with the organization if he ends up at 0-3. Unfortunately for him, I’m confident he’s headed there quickly. Nover should be stronger than we’ve previously seen him as his body has had time to adjust to his new weight class, and his striking and jiu-jitsu skills both significantly outclass Bradley. Nover’s biggest displayed weakness so far is his takedown defense, but Bradley should be at such a sufficient disadvantage in grappling that he should worry about taking the fight to the mat, where he is likely to get swept (if not submitted) if he does bring the fight down.

Look for Nover to deliver on some of his initial hype and score a flashy finish, very probably via some Silva-like clinch work.

Phillipe Nover by TKO in the first round.

Krzysztof Soszynski (+135) vs. Andre Gusmao (-150)

Well-rounded Krzysztof Soszynski (17-8-1 MMA, 2-0 UFC) shouldn’t have much trouble with Brazilian Andre Gusmao (5-1 MMA, 0-1 UFC). Gusmao is a flashy striker with great agility thanks to his background in capoeira, and with his Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, he should prove difficult for Soszynski to submit. Still, Soszynski’s brute force and size advantage should allow him to dictate the pace and location of the fight, and Gusmao’s technical submission skills will likely fall victim to Soszynski’s overwhelming ground and pound and strength-based submission attacks.

I think Gusmao should have just enough to keep from getting stuck with Soszynski’s trademark kimura, but in doing so, he’s likely to eat enough punches from his back to render him unable to continue. Krzysztof Soszynski by TKO in the second round.

Yoshiyuki Yoshida (-500) vs. Brandon Wolff (+300)

Look for Yoshiyuki Yoshida (10-3 MMA, 1-1 UFC) to handle Hawaiian Brandon Wolff (7-3 MMA, 1-1 UFC) by utilizing his striking skills to get in range for a judo clinch before sending Wolff flying head over heels to the mat. There, I see him locking in a quick fight-ending submission. Wolff is a tough fighter but hasn’t so far displayed the necessary striking or grappling skills to hang with a tough veteran such as Yoshida, especially given that Yoshida is now training with Greg Jackson’s camp.

Yoshiyuki Yoshida by submission in the first round.

Dave Kaplan (+135) vs. George Roop (-165)

“TUF” alumns Dave Kaplan (2-2 MMA, 0-1 UFC) and George Roop (8-4 MMA, 0-1 UFC) appear to be relatively evenly matched in skills. Both are generally well rounded and both have a collegiate wrestling background. I like a small play here on Kaplan as the underdog. He has a moderate size advantage over Roop, and I think he can grind out a unanimous-decision victory against his good friend.

Performify’s Picks for UFC 98

Lyoto Machida (-220) : 4.4 units to win 2 units

Matt Hughes (-260) : 2.6u to win 1u

Sean Sherk (-300) : 6u to win 2u

Brock Larson (-325) : 3.25u to win 1u

Phillipe Nover (-345) : 1.73u to win .5u

Krzysztof Soszynski (+135) : .4u to win .54u

Dave Kaplan (+135) : .4u to win .54u

(Note: As usual, these are my recommended plays. Adjust my recommendations to fit with your own comfort level, or better yet, use my recommendations as a point of feedback to your own predictions.)

ALBANY, N.Y. – MMAjunkie is on scene and reporting live from today’s UFC Fight Night 102 event at Times Union Center in Albany, N.Y., which kicks off at 5:45 p.m. ET (2:45 p.m. PT). You can discuss the event here.