Here are my expectations (which will be refined once we start seeing the CEAC data):

EU has another month or two of similar increases, then will accelerate for the May interviews.
AF is probably about to reach the first density change, so will start accelerating slightly in March, but moreso for April interviews.
AS is all about Nepal at the moment and Nepal will increase at around 600 per month until the max number is hit. For the rest of Asia, the travel ban could mean a higher number is possible BUT there is nothing forcing KCC to assume Iranians will not get visas. The travel ban may be reversed - no one knows. So - I cannot be sure how AS region will progress.
OC and SA are progressing at expected pace and there is no reason for that pace to change by much.

You should have a standard link to a page on your website called something like “predictable panic at the latest VB”.

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I know. Just like the other one I need that is "Predictable panic that the VB is late, even though it is only due by the 15th". But some people seem to be utterly surprised, every month, so I'm not sure anyone is listening...

I read your blog much more than this forum, and I trust your experience and good judgement. It's just, this year is not normal (Trump!) and too many new variables that may skew the logic of the process. So for me, it's definitely "wait and see". I no longer see myself as a possible lucky resident of the land of opportunities. I hope I'm wrong. Best regards.

I read your blog much more than this forum, and I trust your experience and good judgement. It's just, this year is not normal (Trump!) and too many new variables that may skew the logic of the process. So for me, it's definitely "wait and see". I no longer see myself as a possible lucky resident of the land of opportunities. I hope I'm wrong. Best regards.

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What are these “too many new variables” that you talk about? And how do you think Trump is affecting the monthly progression of the DV numbers?

What are these “too many new variables” that you talk about? And how do you think Trump is affecting the monthly progression of the DV numbers?

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Let's start with the strict enforcement of the 50k limit. Never seen before. That means thousands less visas.

Next, you have Trump's obsession with security, the extreme screening he ordered embassies to perform, and the latest collective paranoia about diversity lottery (not even Democrats defend it) when no american knew about it before 2017. All these circumstances may delay the whole process, especially for candidates from AF and AS.

Let's start with the strict enforcement of the 50k limit. Never seen before. That means thousands less visas.

Next, you have Trump's obsession with security, the extreme screening he ordered embassies to perform, and the latest collective paranoia about diversity lottery (not even Democrats defend it) when no american knew about it before 2017. All these circumstances may delay the whole process, especially for candidates from AF and AS.

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“No American knew about it before 2017”, nonsense. Why would it repeatedly have made its way into proposed bills if noone knew about it? And in any case, so what? How does that affect monthly progression? How does it delay anything? Please explain your thought process here clearly. I’d love to know how some “paranoid” anti-immigrant southern evangelist manages to delay the progression of the monthly numbers.

I agree that they are getting strict about the limit BUT if you bother looking at the history of DV there were plenty of years that they did not even reach the 50k target. So this is not a “new” factor, even if the reason might have changed. So I don’t agree with you on this either. It’s not “never seen before”.

I’ll grant you the new screening procedures for certain countries will affect people from those countries. Are you from one of those countries?

“No American knew about it before 2017”, nonsense. Why would it repeatedly have made its way into proposed bills if noone knew about it? And in any case, so what? How does that affect monthly progression? How does it delay anything? Please explain your thought process here clearly. I’d love to know how some “paranoid” anti-immigrant southern evangelist manages to delay the progression of the monthly numbers.

I agree that they are getting strict about the limit BUT if you bother looking at the history of DV there were plenty of years that they did not even reach the 50k target. So this is not a “new” factor, even if the reason might have changed. So I don’t agree with you on this either. It’s not “never seen before”.

I’ll grant you the new screening procedures for certain countries will affect people from those countries. Are you from one of those countries?

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I was talking about the average american, not politicians. Very few people knew about the lottery before the latest sad events.

I'm not saying some zealous hardcore republican politician or official is delaying the progress,...but "the extreme vetting" ordered by Trump may affect some Condor candidates (you know, the lowest of the low as Trump said, the swarthy terrorists ...), and I happen to be from a Muslim country,...DV candidates are already extremely screened,...I don't know what more screening they're gonna do, and if this extra-vetting will slow down the process for candidates from some countries.

As to the 50k limit, I didn't check the number of visas issued in previous years, I just read an entry here by Xartisius that said this was the first year they stopped at 50k limit. But you're right,...this means nothing as my number went current in years where they didn't reach the 50k limit. Thanks for the input.

I was talking about the average american, not politicians. Very few people knew about the lottery before the latest sad events.

I'm not saying some zealous hardcore republican politician or official is delaying the progress,...but "the extreme vetting" ordered by Trump may affect some Condor candidates (you know, the lowest of the low as Trump said, the swarthy terrorists ...), and I happen to be from a Muslim country,...DV candidates are already extremely screened,...I don't know what more screening they're gonna do, and if this extra-vetting will slow down the process for candidates from some countries.

As to the 50k limit, I didn't check the number of visas issued in previous years, I just read an entry here by Xartisius that said this was the first year they stopped at 50k limit. But you're right,...this means nothing as my number went current in years where they didn't reach the 50k limit. Thanks for the input.

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So the bottom line out of all your “new factors” is simply that the “travel ban” countries will have a harder time, yes I think we can all agree on that.

By the way...repeating “facts” that you see on the internet without checking them is a great way of spreading fake news. The core Trump base does that a lot.

So the bottom line out of all your “new factors” is simply that the “travel ban” countries will have a harder time, yes I think we can all agree on that.

By the way...repeating “facts” that you see on the internet without checking them is a great way of spreading fake news. The core Trump base does that a lot.

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I'm not from a "Travel Ban" country, and I the poster I quoted is a reputed member of this forum (and he's right, this is the first time the stop issuing visas at 50k limit). As to "fake news",...the other extreme does that a lot too (maybe even more than the basement-dwelling Trump fanboys),...but let's stay on topic.

I'm not from a "Travel Ban" country, and I the poster I quoted is a reputed member of this forum (and he's right, this is the first time the stop issuing visas at 50k limit). As to "fake news",...the other extreme does that a lot too (maybe even more than the basement-dwelling Trump fanboys),...but let's stay on topic.

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How about you just take responsibility for what you say in your own posts and we can let it rest at that?

I'm not from a "Travel Ban" country, and I the poster I quoted is a reputed member of this forum (and he's right, this is the first time the stop issuing visas at 50k limit). As to "fake news",...the other extreme does that a lot too (maybe even more than the basement-dwelling Trump fanboys),...but let's stay on topic.

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Last year was NOT the first time they stopped issuing visas at the limit. A limit is *normally* imposed through limiting the case numbers assuming a prediction of when the visas would run out. Last year was unusual because they (unwisely) let all regions go current FAR too early, then had the realization that there would NOT be enough visas to meet the demand, so they put the brakes on. We have seen that miscalculation happen before at the country level, and in that year scheduled cases were suddenly cancelled. However, it is important to understand that in DV2017, they did NOT impose the limit on any scheduled cases, they imposed the limit on unscheduled (unallocated) cases - i.e. AOS cases, rescheduled, resolving AP, additional derivatives and so on. In other words, if the scheduled cases had resulted in a number of something over 50,000, that would have been allowed to continue. It is an assumption (and an incorrect one in my opinion) that the 50,000 was a hard limit - they just aren't that well organized. The recently introduced DS260 (being an online form) is making the process better, but they are still changing procedures to manage the process better.

Last year was NOT the first time they stopped issuing visas at the limit. A limit is *normally* imposed through limiting the case numbers assuming a prediction of when the visas would run out. Last year was unusual because they (unwisely) let all regions go current FAR too early, then had the realization that there would NOT be enough visas to meet the demand, so they put the brakes on. We have seen that miscalculation happen before at the country level, and in that year scheduled cases were suddenly cancelled. However, it is important to understand that they did NOT impose the limit on any scheduled cases, they imposed the limit on unscheduled (unallocated) cases - i.e. AOS cases, rescheduled, resolving AP, additional derivatives and so on. In other words, if the scheduled cases had resulted in a number of something over 50,000, that would have been allowed to continue. It is an assumption (and an incorrect one in my opinion) that the 50,000 was a hard limit - they just aren't that well organized. The recently introduced DS260 (being an online form) is making the process better, but they are still changing procedures to manage the process better.

I have a case number of OC2109 for 2018 visa and lodged my DS-260 back in May ... Due to the information, I have read my chances are slim to none in getting a visa allocated? Unless there is a miracle of some sorts of course. Not sure you will even be able to say if OC will go current for this year... Was on such a high until I learned what having such a high case number meant ...