In a recent piece for Nexos,
security analyst Eduardo Guerrero Gutierrez pointed out that while
criminal groups have long had an interest in building links with the
different levels of government, recent developments have made them
focus on elections all the more. One is that gangs today earn more
money from extortion and from retail drug trafficking, which is known
in Mexico as "narcomenudeo." Unlike international drug trafficking,
which can be carried out without much involvement from the authorities,
the police are far more likely to be aware of extortion and retail
drug sales. Government tolerance -- or better still, collusion -- is
needed.

Another issue is the democratic opening in Mexico: unlike 20 years
ago, when the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) had ruled Mexico
for six unbroken decades, today criminal groups have to deal with the
three major parties contending for political posts. That means that
profitable and long-standing relationships between a group and a
political party in a given area can be rendered useless with a single
election, which is a grave setback to a gang's interests.

In this sense, meddling in elections is a logical policy for gangs,
not unlike private-sector campaign donations to candidates promising a
lower corporate tax rate. And, just as large companies sometimes make
contributions to more than one candidate in the same race, criminal
groups also hedge their bets by donating cash or performing services
for a variety of different candidates. That way, they have a measure of
protection regardless of the outcome of the election.