Thursday, November 3, 2011

Even members on the same team cannot agree read more below. Aivars Lode

Professors Judith Curry and Richard Muller don’t agree on the same set of results on climate change

Wednesday November 2,2011

By Julie Carpenter

IT'S one of the hottest feuds in science - climate chance zealots insist that we're still destroying the planet but now another scientist has warned the cast-iron evidence just isn't there.

FOR a minute there it seemed the global warming debate had finally been resolved.

While for years scientists and sceptics have raged against each other on the crucial topic, new research hailed “the most definitive study into temperature data gathered by weather stations over the past half-century” seemed to come to an authoritative conclusion.

Global warming IS real it said, strengthening the need for us all to reduce carbon emissions and boost efforts to try to save the planet.

Prof Richard Muller had spent two years trying to discover if the mainstream scientists were wrong but concluded they were right. Temperatures are rising and his results, he concluded, “proved you should not be a sceptic, at least not any longer”. Case closed.

But is it? Not according to Prof Judith Curry, a member of Prof Muller’s team, who claims the same findings have shown that global warming has stopped – plunging the rest of us into a quandary of what and who to believe.

When Prof Curry heard that Prof Muller was saying that the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) findings would put an end to climate change scepticism for good she was horrified. “This isn’t the end of scepticism,” she exclaimed.

“To say that is the biggest mistake he has made. When I saw he was saying that I just thought, ‘Oh my God.’”

Prof Muller, of Berkeley University in California, and Prof Curry, who chairs the Department Of Earth And Atmospheric Sciences at America’s Georgia Institute of Technology, were part of the BEST project that carried
out analysis of more than 1.6 billion temperature recordings collected from more than 39,000 weather stations around the world.

Prof Muller appeared on Radio 4’s Today Programme last Friday where he described how BEST’s findings showed that since the Fifties global temperatures had risen by about 1 degree Celsius, a figure which is in line with estimates from Nasa and the Met Office.

When asked whether the rate had stopped over the last 10 years he said they had not. “We see no evidence of it having slowed down,” he replied and a graph issued by the BEST project suggests a continuing and steep increase.

But this last point is one which Prof Curry has furiously rebuttted. In a serious clash of scientific experts Prof Curry has accused Prof Muller of trying to “hide the decline in rates of global warming”.

She says that BEST’s research actually shows that there has been no increase in world temperatures for 13 years.

She has called Prof Muller’s comments “a huge mistake” and has said that she now plans to discuss her future on the project with him. “There is no scientific basis for saying that global warming hasn’t stopped,” she says.

“To say that there is detracts from the credibility of the data, which is very unfortunate.” New research also seems to back up Prof Curry rather than Prof Muller.

A report published by the Global Warming Foundation, which is based on BEST’s findings, includes a graph of world average temperatures over the past 10 years and it is absolutely flat, suggesting that temperatures have remained constant.

This issue is crucial because the levels of carbon dioxide in the air have continued to rise rapidly over the last decade and if temperatures have remained constant during that period it would suggest there is no direct link between carbon gas emissions and global warming.

Previously carbon dioxide emissions – from the burning of fossil fuels and from deforestation – have been considered one of the biggest causes of climate change, the most damaging effects of which are thought to be the melting of the polar ice caps and the rise in sea levels as well as an increase in extreme weather events such as floods and droughts.

“Whatever it is that is going on here it doesn’t look like it’s being dominated by carbon dioxide,” says Prof Curry.

Prof Muller has made it clear that the BEST study was not conducted in order to gauge the causes of global warming, saying the study “made no assessment on how much of this is due to humans and how much is natural”.

He and his scientists – who also included this year’s physics Nobel winner Saul Perlmutter – set out purely to determine once and for all whether climate change had occurred.

The group had been suspicious of previous results which confirmed a rise in global temperatures , believing that their work may have been skewed by the “urban heat island effect” where increasing urbanisation around weather stations was causing the temperature increases recorded over the past 50 years.

But their exhaustive research discovered that the urban heat effect could not explain the global temperature increase of about one degree Celsius since 1950.

IT IS well to point out that Prof Curry is not disputing the one degree Celsius increase. She is disputing Prof Muller’s suggestion that temperatures haven’t levelled off in the last decade.

Indeed she says this global warming standstill since the end of the Nineties – which has been completely unexpected – has wide-reaching consequences for the causes of climate change and has already led many climate scientists to start looking at alternative factors that may have contributed to global warming,

other than carbon gas emissions. In particular she has mentioned the influence of clouds, natural temperature cycles and solar radiation.

What she also seems furious about is the way that Prof Muller went about publishing BEST’s results without consulting her and before a proper peer review could be carried out. “It is not how I would have played it,” she has said. “I was informed only when I got a group email. I think they have made errors and I distance myself from what they did. It would have been smart to consult me.”

Tuesday, November 1, 2011

Ok, why is everyone stunned? Detailed in This Time its Different, Eight Centuries of Financial folly by Reinhart and Rogoff the Greeks were serially in default of their sovereign debt from the beginning of the 1800's to the mid 1900's. I also detailed in my book This Time Its Different NOT, 2 years ago that it was difficult to justify the Euro being stronger than the USD, as the Europeans were not more efficient and that we did not know if they had more or less debt that the States. Aivars Lode

LONDON -- Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou's decision to call a referendum on a freshly minted bailout package has shock waves across European governments and markets, sparking warnings that the move could push the country into a disorderly default and destabilize the entire euro zone.
The move also opened a rift within the ruling Socialist party, with one lawmaker resigning from the party in disagreement with the referendum and another one calling for early elections.

Mr. Papandreou announced late Monday a surprise referendum on Greece's bailout program, a move that could shore up support for his policies but risks undermining efforts to rescue the debt-laden country and stabilize the region.
Mr. Papandreou's decision was announced just days after European leaders in Brussels agreed on a set of measures to reduce Greece's debt burden and beef-up the firepower of the European Financial Stability Facility, a rescue fund, to make sure the continent can prop up other troubled nations in the currency area. If the Greek government survives a confidence vote expected Friday, the referendum on the aid deal is expected to take place in January.

The high stakes gamble by the Greek prime minister is unlikely to pay off says Costas Paris, senior correspondent for Dow Jones.

Fears that the euro-zone plan could unravel if the bailout program is rejected at a Greek referendum rattled financial markets with stocks and the euro plunging, and 10-year Italian bond yields rising perilously close to their highest levels since the euro's inception.
Meanwhile, Greece's euro-zone partners were slow to respond, appearing unprepared and stunned by the developments.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy called an unscheduled meeting with key government ministers and the central bank governor for late Tuesday to discuss the potential fallout. Mr. Sarkozy has convened Prime Minister François Fillon, Bank of France Governor Christian Noyer, Finance Minister François Baroin, Budget Minister Valérie Pecresse and Foreign Minister Alain Juppé, a spokesman for Mr. Sarkozy said.
Mr. Sarkozy is set to discuss the situation by telephone with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, a spokesman said earlier.
Germany was groping for a credible a response as the government didn't appear to have been given much, if any, advance warning of Greece's plans. Rainer Brüderle, a senior member of the junior partner Free Democrats in Ms. Merkel's center-right coalition, called the Greek move "a little strange".
The finance ministry sought to play down the latest act in the Greek drama, calling it a local issue in the world of Greek politics, but Berlin seemed to have little insight into what was happening in Athens.
"The announcement of a possible referendum in Greece is a domestic development in Greece over which the German government until now has no official information and for that reason will not issue any comment," the German finance ministry said in a statement.
It said European leaders formulated clear expectations of Greece and other euro-zone members at last week's summit in Brussels.
"Based on this, the second aid package for Greece should be completed by the end of the year," the ministry said. "We are all working on this with great intensity."

European Commission president José Manuel Barroso and European Council president Herman Van Rompuy said they "took note" of the Greek prime minister's intention to hold a referendum. Messrs. Barroso and Van Rompuy said in a statement they had spoken to Mr. Papandreou on the telephone.
The decision by Mr. Papandreou fanned concerns among some investors that Greece could leave the euro zone.
Fitch Ratings Tuesday said a public referendum in Greece could push the highly-indebted country into a disorderly default or even an exit from the euro, putting the financial stability of the whole euro zone at risk.
A rejection of the EU and International Monetary Fund program "negotiated by the Greek government would increase the risk of a forced and disorderly sovereign default and—whilst not Fitch's central rating case—potentially a Greek exit from the euro," Fitch said.
Both scenarios would have severe financial implications for the financial stability and viability of the euro zone, it added.
Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi said he had "no doubt" that Greece's surprise decision was disturbing capital markets.
The Greek decision "was unexpected and triggers uncertainty after the recent European Council meeting and on the eve of the G-20 summit in Cannes," Mr. Berlusconi said in a statement. The Group of 20 industrial and developing nations meets in Cannes this Thursday and Friday.
Italy remained firmly in the market's firing line as concerns it could suffer a Greek-style debt meltdown have intensified in recent weeks.
Yields on Italian bonds rose sharply with the 10-year Italian bond yield increasing by 0.13 percentage points to 6.21%, while the yield on the five-year bond hit a euro-era high of 6.07%, 0.19 percentage points higher on the day despite continued buying of bonds by the European Central Bank.
Mr. Papandreou, in his announcement Monday, also called for a confidence vote on his government, which is expected on Friday. If the government survives the vote, the referendum on the aid deal is expected to take place in January.
But his survival appeared to be at stake Tuesday after Milena Apostolaki resigned as a member of his socialist Pasok party, leaving the government with just a two-seat majority in the 300-seat parliament.
Ms. Apostolaki, who became an independent deputy with her defection, said she strongly disagrees with Mr. Papandreou's decision to call a referendum on whether Greece should go along with austerity measures in return for European loans.
The move also prompted Vasso Papandreou, a leading Greek socialist lawmaker not related to the prime minister, to call for the creation of a unity government followed by early elections to safeguard the bailout deal.
"The party is in major turmoil," a senior socialist party official said. "I can't exclude more desertions today, which will lead to early elections." —Matina Stevis in Brussels, Christopher Emsden in Rome and Neelabh Chatuverdi, Art Patnaude and Alexandra Fletcher in London contributed to this article. Write to William Boston at william.boston@dowjones.com and Costas Paris at costas.paris@dowjones.com

As you may know, Cruz Construction started a division in North Dakota just 6 months ago.

They sent every Kenworth (9 trucks) we had here in Alaska to North Dakota and several drivers.

They just bought two new Kenworth's to add to that fleet; one being a Tri Drive tractor and a new 65 ton lowboy to go with it.

They also bought two new cranes (one crawler & one rubber tired) for that division.

Dave Cruz said they have moved more rigs in the last 6 months in ND than Cruz Construction moved in Alaska in the last 6 years.

Williston is like a gold rush town; they moved one of our 40 man camps down there since there are no rooms available.

Unemployment in ND is the lowest in the nation at 3.4 percent last I checked.

See anything in the national news about how the oil industry is fueling North Dakota's economy?

Here's an astonishing read. Important and verifiable information:

About 6 months ago, the writer was watching a news program on oil and one of the Forbes Bros. was the guest.

The host said to Forbes, "I am going to ask you a direct question and I would like a direct answer;

how much oil does the U.S. have in the ground?" Forbes did not miss a beat, he said, "more than all the Middle East put together.."

The U. S.. Geological Service issued a report in April 2008 that only scientists and oil men knew was coming, but man was it big.

It was a revised report (hadn't been updated since 1995) on how much oil was in this area of the western 2/3 of North Dakota,

western South Dakota, and extreme eastern Montana.

Check THIS out:

The Bakken is the largest domestic oil discovery since Alaska's Prudhoe Bay, and has the potential to

eliminate all American dependence on foreign oil. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates

it at 503 billion barrels. Even if just 10% of the oil is recoverable( 5 billion barrels), at $107 a barrel,

we're looking at a resource base worth more than $5.3 trillion.

"When I first briefed legislators on this, you could practically see their jaws hit the floor.

They had no idea.." says Terry Johnson, the Montana Legislature's financial analyst.

"This sizable find is now the highest-producing onshore oil field found in the past 56 years," reportsThe Pittsburgh Post Gazette.

It's a formation known as the Williston Basin, but is more commonly referred to as the 'Bakken.'

It stretches from Northern Montana, through North Dakota and into Canada.

For years, U. S. oil exploration has been considered a dead end.

Even the 'Big Oil' companies gave up searching for major oil wells decades ago.

However, a recent technological breakthrough has opened up the Bakken's massive reserves,

and we now have access of up to 500 billion barrels. And because this is light, sweet oil,

those billions of barrels will cost Americans just $16 PER BARREL !!!!!!

That's enough crude to fully fuel the American economy for 2041 years straight.

And if THAT didn't throw you on the floor, then this next one should - because it's from 2006 !!!!!!

U.. S. Oil Discovery - Largest Reserve in the World

Stansberry Report Online - 4/20/2006

Hidden 1,000 feet beneath the surface of the Rocky Mountains lies the largest untapped oil reserve in the world.

It is more than 2 TRILLION barrels. On August 8, 2005 President Bush mandated its extraction.

In three and a half years of high oil prices none has been extracted.

With this motherload of oil why are we still fighting over off-shore drilling?

They reported this stunning news:

We have more oil inside our borders, than all the other proven reserves on earth.

Here are the official estimates:

8 times as much oil as Saudi Arabia

18 times as much oil as Iraq

21 times as much oil as Kuwait

22 times as much oil as Iran

500 times as much oil as Yemen

and it's all right here in the Western United States !!!!!!

HOW can this BE? HOW can we NOT BE extracting this? Because the environmentalists and others have blocked all efforts to help America become independent of foreign oil! Again, we are letting a small group of people dictate our lives and our economy. WHY?

James Bartis, lead researcher with the study says we've got more oil in this very compact area than the entire Middle East, more than 2 TRILLION barrels untapped.. That's more than all the proven oil reserves of crude oil in the world today, reports The Denver Post.

Don't think 'OPEC' will drop its price even with this find? Think again! It's all about the competitive marketplace, it has to.

Think OPEC just might be funding the environmentalists?

Got your attention yet? Now, while you're thinking about it, do this:

Pass this along. If you don't take a little time to do this, then you should stifle yourself the next time you complain about gas prices,

by doing NOTHING, you forfeit your right to complain.

Now I just wonder what would happen in this country if every one of you sent this to every one in your address book.

By the way, this can be verified. Check it out at the link below !!!!!!