Fantasy Football 2012: The Preseason Top 125 Players, Vol. I

Texans RB Arian Foster (4,061 total yards, 30 TDs in 2010-11) draws the rebuilding Colts and Vikings at home for Weeks 15 and 16 this season. (Photo Credit: US PRESSWIRE)

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Here is my first off-the-cuff listing of the Top 125 overall players in standard-scoring leagues.

Obviously, a lot can change over the summer with injured players and certain stars currently embroiled in contract disputes.

But right now, this should serve as a fairly accurate profile of my thinking heading into the July training camps.

One last thing: These rankings will remain capped at 125 for two reasons:

a) Any listings beyond 125 are patently irrelevant since every draft tells a different story in the latter rounds.

b) Reasonably short lists will hopefully force/inspire lazy fantasy GMs to conduct at least three mocks before the big day in August. The absolute worst thing you can do is show up on draft day with only the help of a few Top 200 cheat sheets. Good drafting is all about preparation (mock simulations)...and finding value with every pick.

I reserve the right to change my mind between McCoy and Foster (1,871 total yards, 12 TDs in 2011) through August, but it's hard to deny the 20-touchdown wunderkind (McCoy) from a year ago—even if he only has a 15 percent chance of replicating that figure in 2012. Still, he's a good bet for 1,730 total yards and 17 TDs.

One quick note on Foster's behalf: The Texans draw the Colts and Vikings at home for Weeks 15 and 16. If that isn't a freebie gift from the fantasy odds, I don't know what it is.

You won't encounter many preseason fantasy rankings without Aaron Rodgers slotted in the top four, and that represents major progress for an industry that once frowned upon attaching Round 1 value to quarterbacks. It used to be that QBs who threw for 45 touchdowns one year had no chance of duplicating that feat the next, but the unflappable Rodgers (4,643 yards passing) could probably tally 40 TDs in his sleep. Hence, back-to-back 45s is feasible.

Chris Johnson (1,465 total yards) posted seven games of 100 total yards or more last year; he also recorded season highs in targets (79) and receptions (57). Put it all together, and it's enough to believe the 26-year-old speedster will rebound in a major way. Targets: 1,817 total yards and 11 touchdowns.

I understand the trepidation of drafting either Fred Jackson (137.6 total yards per game in 2011) or Darren McFadden (110 total yards per game) low in Round 1/high in Round 2, but fantasy owners need to realize both backs have top-15 talent. Plus, they won't be felled by injuries every season. They're due for some positive karma from the fantasy gods.

I'm a little worried Packers wideouts Jennings and Nelson might cancel each other out in terms of garnering an elite ranking. Then again, if Aaron Rodgers throws for 42 touchdowns this year, should it really matter if Jennings outperforms Nelson or Nelson trumps Jennings?

The Gore vs. Steven Jackson dynamic is difficult to characterize right now. They're both high-end backs with a lot of questions surrounding their respective supporting casts, which ultimately could affect their per-game touches. For Jackson, I'm thinking 1,461 total yards and eight touchdowns.

Adrian Peterson's ranking is a tad misleading since I don't intend to draft him in the first five rounds of 12-team drafts. (For a full explanation, click here.) However, it does acknowledge that only 30 healthy players are deemed better than Peterson (recovering from a torn ACL) at less than 100 percent.

Ahmad Bradshaw's hold on the No. 39 ranking is tenuous. For starters, I'm still mad at him for going in the tank against Dallas last year (Week 14 partial suspension); and with the arrival of rookie running back David Wilson, Bradshaw will hopefully have to fight for every carry, every reception and every first-team practice rep during training camp.

I'm confident Peyton Manning will play well out of the chute for Denver, and I doubt his neck injury will be a significant hindrance this season. But given his age (36) and the lost opportunity of 2011, it seems unreasonable to expect 4,500 yards and 34 touchdowns in his Broncos debut. Instead, I'll shoot for 4,300 yards and 28 TDs—basically Tom Brady's numbers from 2009 (first year back from injury).

The Bengals might have fostered the best non-quarterback signing of the offseason, luring BenJarvus Green-Ellis away from New England. Cincinnati's offensive line is very underrated, and Green-Ellis (24 TDs from 2010-11) has the tools to be a rock-solid fantasy back—between the 20s and in the red zone.

Jahvid Best (677 total yards, three TDs in six games last year) is a healthy lock for 90 total yards every time he takes the field. Few defenders can match his top-end speed in the open field; as a result, Best (85 career catches) could be a top-five running back in Points Per Reception leagues by season's end. The obvious bugaboo lies with Best's susceptibility to concussions, but a draft range of 55-65 should mollify any draft-day fears among owners. If concussions were never a problem, Best would be a top-35 overall asset.

I have reservations about Isaac Redman (142 total yards vs. Denver in the wild card round) being a full-time feature back with the Steelers in September and October while Rashard Mendenhall rehabs and recovers from a serious knee injury (last January). But a Pittsburgh runner needs to represent well here; the franchise has earned the benefit of the doubt in that realm. Someone will take charge in this role, whether it's Redman, Mendy or Jonathan Dwyer.

Brandon Lloyd drew 150 targets with the Broncos and Rams last year, fifth-best among NFL wide receivers. He also followed offensive guru Josh McDaniels from Denver to St. Louis to New England in the process. McDaniels and Lloyd have expressed a mutual admiration for one another's talents many times, leading fantasy experts to believe that Lloyd could be in a monster year. But for now, I'm going to take a conservative tone on this matter, even though Lloyd (77 catches, 1,448 yards, 11 TDs with Denver in 2010) is one of my all-time PPR favorites.

Backup tailback Michael Bush (1,395 total yards, 8 TDs with Oakland last year) will rocket up the charts at the first sign of real trouble regarding Matt Forte's contract dispute with the Bears.

The Buccaneers deserve major props for drafting a Ray Rice-esque runner like Boise State rookie Doug Martin (1,554 total yards, 16 TDs in 2011). In time, Martin may prove to be the perfect back for head coach Greg Schiano's power-rushing attack. For now, Martin will likely split carries with incumbent LeGarrette Blount, but one look at Martin's highlight reel tells us his day as Tampa Bay's feature back will come sooner than later. If he wants the ultimate real-world and fantasy respect, Martin must evolve into a 40-catch talent within the first two seasons.