42-40 in the BEST case scenario would grab the Raptors an eight seed. Which sets up your next statement.. You think the Raptors would take the Heat to seven games in the first round?
I like hanging around people like you

I'm going with 36W-46L, we got better as a team but I'm not sure enough teams got worse for it to matter dramatically. Lowry will have to be in heavy all-star consideration for the raps to get a 7th seed or higher, I think we'll be in the 11-8 range, a lot of that depending on Magic and Bulls.

"We only have one rule on this team. What is that rule? E.L.E. That's right's, E.L.E, and what does E.L.E. stand for? EVERYBODY LOVE EVERYBODY. Right there up on the wall, because this isn't just a basketball team, this is a lifestyle. ~ Jackie Moon

Just read the slam article and found a couple of things interesting...

1) If the guy who wrote the article was the GM of either the Bulls or Hornet's he'd be trying to get his hands on Calderon.

2) He thinks that New Orleans is going to have a +500 record. That seems like a stretch to me, I guess he's expecting Davis to have a huge impact, but doing a roster comparison I think that our team is definitely stronger, both in starting 5 and in players coming off the bench. That being said, I've never watched Davis play (am overseas so only read about this year's march madness).

"We only have one rule on this team. What is that rule? E.L.E. That's right's, E.L.E, and what does E.L.E. stand for? EVERYBODY LOVE EVERYBODY. Right there up on the wall, because this isn't just a basketball team, this is a lifestyle. ~ Jackie Moon

I'm optimistic about our chances this season (as I am at the start of every season). I think two things the Raptors have going for them are a deep bench with Calderon leading the way, and just as important D. Casey's consistent approach to playing defensive basketball. I really think when you can hang your hat on defense you'll always have a shot at winning games. Plus with really good rebounders at the PG and SF positions in Lowry and Fields the Raptors should be a pretty good rebounding team this year.

Nice that the Raptors are on the list, but the Hornets with Robin Lopez and Greivis Vasquez in the starting lineup will be above .500? And the talented but frenetic Kings with an 18 win jump? Might be a little bit optimistic.

Assuming Bargnani can remain healthy and be more like the player he showed in about 17 games versus the other 14 that will likely add wins (versus the negative he currently is). Considering in 2010-11 Bargnani produced a negative 6.4 wins (I guess that would be a positive 6.4 losses produced) having him go positive is not out of the question. DeRozan not having to be the focal point of the offense might improve his efficiency and take him positive in the wins produced as well. The Raps then might be pushing .500!

And good Lord don't get me started if Fields returns to the 11.6 wins he produced in 2010-11 as a rookie and Lowry goes back to 9.3. Could they be plus .500?!?!?! I have to calm down here.

Considering the collective 38 wins from the roster in 2010-11 and the 33.7 plus my rookie phantom numbers of 38 again, I'm going with 38 wins and 8th seed..... final answer.

That is a HUGE assumption. We can only pray that the team can remain healthy and develop chemistry. Another huge assumption is that what we saw from AB last year at the beginning of the year is truly "him". If he can play like that, and play at least 75 games, I tend to agree that we can fight for that 8th spot...because DC is the man

That is a HUGE assumption. We can only pray that the team can remain healthy and develop chemistry. Another huge assumption is that what we saw from AB last year at the beginning of the year is truly "him". If he can play like that, and play at least 75 games, I tend to agree that we can fight for that 8th spot...because DC is the man

It is.

To clarify, I mean no major injuries that cost extended stretches of games (like 10+ games) to a major player - mainly Bargnani and Lowry. A game here or there for flu, sore knee, rest is not what I meant. I don't think it is reasonable to expect 82 games from everyone who really matters.

Play to Level of Competition

In Regular Season play we often see the best teams Play to Level of Competition - simply because its regular season, opponent is stinky and the match-up has no glitter. Even the mid-tear teams fall into this against a very weak opponent.

You get half effort by damn good team against the last place team. Thus the stinky team wins a few more since nobody takes them seriously. Will anyone take the BOBCATS seriously...for this reason they may notch 2-3 extra wins if they play hard enough.

I take the above application to have a value of 3-4 wins for our Experimental Roster, we have no idea what to expect do we? I'm going with .500 +/- 2

Cheers

It's just a job. Grass grows, birds fly, waves pound the sand. I beat people up.

I take the above application to have a value of 3-4 wins for our Experimental Roster, we have no idea what to expect do we? I'm going with .500 +/- 2

Cheers

the problem with that approach is that we are likely to lose 3-4 games the same way; playing down to the level of teams below us. I think 40W-42L +/- 2 is a little more realistic... but hey everyone's guess is equally invalid!

"We only have one rule on this team. What is that rule? E.L.E. That's right's, E.L.E, and what does E.L.E. stand for? EVERYBODY LOVE EVERYBODY. Right there up on the wall, because this isn't just a basketball team, this is a lifestyle. ~ Jackie Moon

the problem with that approach is that we are likely to lose 3-4 games the same way; playing down to the level of teams below us. I think 40W-42L +/- 2 is a little more realistic... but hey everyone's guess is equally invalid!

Valuation

ezz_bee wrote:

the problem with that approach is that we are likely to lose 3-4 games the same way; playing down to the level of teams below us. I think 40W-42L +/- 2 is a little more realistic... but hey everyone's guess is equally invalid!

Go through upcoming schedule and place "W" and "L" beside each game based on your opinion. Once complete, take into account factors as West coast road swing, estimate injury for the month, breaks, back to backs.

That should work...now we just need to find a volunteer

Peace

It's just a job. Grass grows, birds fly, waves pound the sand. I beat people up.

the problem with that approach is that we are likely to lose 3-4 games the same way; playing down to the level of teams below us. I think 40W-42L +/- 2 is a little more realistic... but hey everyone's guess is equally invalid!

How many teams are below us....not that many.

It's just a job. Grass grows, birds fly, waves pound the sand. I beat people up.

- Last year we had 23 wins. With a winning percentage of 0.348.
- Apply that to 82 games and you get 29 wins (rounded up).
- Assume Bargnani plays at least 75 games. Add 3 wins to that count. So we are up to 32.
- JV/Ross should add at least +1 win. That brings us up to 33.
- Replace "lottery ball" Butler with Fields.. automatic +3 wins. That brings us to 36.
- No tanking this year (since we don't have a pick essentially). Add +2 wins. That brings us to 38.
- Other teams have improved as well. That's -3 wins. That brings us down to 35.
- Lowry replacing Jose as a starter +1 wins. That brings us to 36.
- Jose replacing Bayless as a backup... add +2 wins. That brings us to 38.
- Add a full training camp for Casey, that should net us at least 1 win.. which brings us to 39.

I think we'll have a 39-43 record, and will either be in 8th, 9th or 10th depending on how the other teams do.

Devil

planetmars wrote:

I'm going with 39 Wins.

Here's my rational:

- Last year we had 23 wins. With a winning percentage of 0.348. - Apply that to 82 games and you get 29 wins (rounded up). - Assume Bargnani plays at least 75 games. Add 3 wins to that count. So we are up to 32. - JV/Ross should add at least +1 win. That brings us up to 33.
- Replace "lottery ball" Butler with Fields.. automatic +3 wins. That brings us to 36.
- No tanking this year (since we don't have a pick essentially). Add +2 wins. That brings us to 38.
- Other teams have improved as well. That's -3 wins. That brings us down to 35.
- Lowry replacing Jose as a starter +1 wins. That brings us to 36.
- Jose replacing Bayless as a backup... add +2 wins. That brings us to 38.
- Add a full training camp for Casey, that should net us at least 1 win.. which brings us to 39.

I think we'll have a 39-43 record, and will either be in 8th, 9th or 10th depending on how the other teams do.

I will play devil on this

- Last year was short with many BACKtoBACK and even BACKtoBACKtoBACK...not fair comparison
- I never understood a 1 player can account for a win ---you need 5 players
- Can you do the opposite, were a player equals losses?
- How does Field equal auto 3 win...like i said that formula makes no sense you need 5 on court player work as team
- So lack of tanking will get us only 2 wins....
- Other teams improving means we lose 3 ---but we also improved so I had 25 ...makes no sense
- But I will agree with you on the team trainning camp part

Just killing time on a Friday...not much action here at ACC parking lot

Peace

It's just a job. Grass grows, birds fly, waves pound the sand. I beat people up.