Sunday, October 31, 2010

Last
Friday, the Twins decided that they would
exercise the 28-year-old Jason Kubel’s $5.25 million dollar option on 2011. This was one of the more
significant decisions that loomed on the offseason landscape for the team. When
we were creating our individual blueprints for the TwinsCentric
Offseason GM Handbook,
it was noteworthy that the four of us split on the decision to keep Jason
Kubel. Nick Nelson and I found it in the Twins best interest to hold on to the
lefty while both Seth Stohs and John Bonnes recommended that the two part ways
(John suggested a straight dump of his salary while Seth submitted that the
team pick up the option only to trade him later). Certainly, this discussion
must have occurred among the Twins’ top brass as well.

With
reason, trepidation and speculation
existed that
the organization may have opted to decline Kubel’s option year. His final
numbers were not wholly indicative of a player worthy of a $5.25 million
payday, particularly on a team whose budget will be less flexible in 2011 and
may also have the opportunity to bring back Jim Thome. After all, it was Thome
rather than Kubel whose DH production was instrumental in propelling the Twins
to their second straight AL Central Division title. For his part, Kubel, after
raking a succulent .300/.369/.539 a year ago, only managed to generate a
.249/.323/.427 line in 2010, results that were substandard comparative to the
average American League DH (they hit .252/.332/.425 as a group).

But why
not focus on Thome over Kubel? After all, it was Thome who rocked righties
(.302/.455/.698 with 19 HR in 246 PA) and also figures to sign for a lower
amount than Kubel’s $5.25 million. Why not lock up Thome and invest the
difference in relief arms?

In
spite of his statements indicating that he would like to remain a Twin, we
still do not know what Thome’s true intentions are. While his 2011 salary
estimates to be lower than that of Kubel’s option, it is contingent on whether
or not some teams overpay for his services. His hometown White Sox might
reconsider their decision to allow the big man to walk and offer him more money
to return. Other AL organizations that have interest in spending money this
offseason might contact Thome’s agent to inquire on the aging slugger and drive
up the bidding. Because of this, the Twins had to move forward with an
alternative plan and exercising Kubel’s option allows them to still kick the
tires on Thome but have a safety net in the event that Thome’s asking price
soars.

Hidden
within the mediocre slashes for Kubel were the incremental improvements he made
when it came to breaking balls. Up to this point in his career, Kubel excelled
at handling fastballs but had been tied in knots when pitchers tossed a wrinkle
at him. Because of his tendency to decimate fastballs, opponents stopped
throwing him fastballs as often as Kubel saw the 10th-fewest
fastballs in baseball this past season. Instead, he was treated to a high
amount of changeups (14.9%) and curves (10.3%). While changeups frequently
fooled Kubel (a .217 average and a 29% swing-and-miss rate on changes), he
slugged .660 on curves resulting in 6.5 runs above average (7th best
in baseball) on a pitch that he had been otherwise completely unproductive on
previously in his career.

Truth
be told, Kubel’s past two seasons demonstrate the extremes of what batted balls
can do. In 2009, his totals greatly outpaced what should have been expected
from him. While the rest of the league finished with a BABIP around .300,
Kubel’s ‘09 BABIP culminated at .327 – exaggerated by a boost in his line
drives finding vacant real estate. Conversely, his 2010 totals were the polar
opposite of his previous season, witnessing far more line drives gloved down.

League Average

Kubel 2009

Kubel 2010

Groundball
BABIP

.240

.168

.186

Flyball
BABIP

.134

.252

.214

Line Drive
BABIP

.729

.836

.694

Overall
BABIP

.295

.327

.280

As
you can see, there was a sizeable shift in his overall BABIP numbers, mostly
derivative of a 142-point drop in his line drive BABIP. This is one indicator
of what statistically-oriented analysts refer to as “bad luck”. “Bad luck” is the catch-all descriptive used
far too often to label a BABIP anomaly like Kubel’s when it comes in below the
league’s average. While we would like to assign the blame to the baseball gods,
something less celestial probably influenced this, like better scouting
reports. What we do know is that Kubel
unleashed liners at roughly the same rate has he did in 2009 (19.6% versus
19.2%) but somehow had a whopping 84% land safely for hits while only 69% fell
in for hits this past season. If he continues to replicate this amount of
liners in 2011, odds are that his batting average and on-base percentage will
creep northward as his BABIP likely normalizes.

Of
course, there is another factor that makes spending $5.25 million on Kubel
questionable and that is his inability to hit same-sided pitching. The
perception is that left-handers have their way with him like he was Ned Beatty
wandering the Georgian woods and, for the most part, this is true. In the past
two seasons, Kubel’s hit just .233 off of southpaws while striking out in 21.9%
of those plate appearances. Likewise, just four of his 49 home runs have come
against left-handers. Although many figured the retention of Kubel should not
come without a platoon partner (which the Twins should do either this offseason
or at the deadline in order to appropriately match-up against the left-handed
heavy pitching of the AL East in the postseason), let’s keep in mind that
right-handed pitchers, as a demographic, far exceed that of their wrong-handed
counterparts.

Consider
this: Last season in the American League, where right-handed pitchers were on
the mound for 62,275 out of the total 86,725 match-ups. That is, 71% of the
overall encounters saw a righty on the mound. Therefore, stacking the lineup
with potent left-handed bats presents a sizeable platoon advantage to the
offense. With the likes of Justin Verlander, Matt Scherzer, Zack Greinke, Jake
Peavy, Edwin Jackson, Justin Masterson and other hard-throwing right-handers in
the division, it makes complete sense for the Twins to have a stable of
left-handed hitting offensive answers.

Kubel’s
2011 season will likely fall somewhere between his 2009 and 2010 output. If the
Twins can limit his reps against tough left-handed pitching that would greatly
improve his chances of bettering his numbers. But the decision to pick up his option
goes beyond simply expecting an improved season out of the lefty. With the
unknowns of Jim Thome’s future, keeping Kubel is essentially a bird-in-hand
situation allowing the team to move forward if Thome opts to sign elsewhere. Independent
of Thome, at 29 years old in 2011, Kubel is potentially at the peak of his
career and, for a marginal investment, the Twins could reap offensive dividends
on that before he becomes expendable in his 30s.

About OtB

"Parker Hageman is the Michael Cuddyer of Twins bloggers -- not the flashiest guy out there, but a solid everyday player. Hageman produces spot-on analysis ... relying on in-depth stats and lots of charts. He takes a sober, performance-based view of players, letting others fall for a player's heart or his leadership skills in the clubhouse. Hageman is one of the four pillars holding up the Star Tribune's TwinsCentric blog."