BITCOINERS predict BITCOIN

On Sunday (5/3/15) a group of Bitcoiners ( from Reddit’s r/bitcoin ) met online to make a dozen predictions about the future of bitcoin. Predictions like this aren’t rare, but these are a bit different…

Instead of the group taking a vote or conducting poll or engaging in lengthy argument, they formed a real-time “social swarm” and made their predictions as a collective intelligence.

Here are some of the questions they tackled:

How many years until PAPER CURRENCY is discontinued?

Does ANONYMITY hurt mainstream acceptance of crypto-currency?

What will the value of bitcoin be in SIX MONTHS?

To see the results, just click the “swarm replay videos” below:

WHY SWARMS? The amazing thing about a real-time swarm is that they produce more accurate and insightful answers than polls or surveys or votes.

That’s because swarms don’t give “average opinions”. Instead they allow all the participants of a group to push and pull on each other as a unified dynamic system, using real-time feedback-loops to quickly find the solution that maximizes support.

Of course, the proof of any prediction is in the outcome. And while most of the predictions made by the swarm are still 30 days, 90 days, and 6 months away…

One prediction was very short-term and it ended up surprisingly accurate. On Sunday May 3rd, the bitcoiners mentioned above predicted that the price of bitcoin would drop 4% in the next 48 hours, hitting a target of $230.

This was a bold prediction, forecasting a relatively sharp move, and yet:

…the SWARM was almost perfect!

WANT MORE PROOF? Just look at our prior blog posts about swarms predicting the winners of the Oscars, the Golden Globes, the NFL playoffs, and the Super Bowl.

WANT TO TRY UNU? To take part in one of our many upcoming swarms, you can join the growing community of UNU beta testers by clicking here.