Well, it comes down to this: One game for one shot at bowl eligibility. At this point, all of the missed opportunities (Arizona, USC, Colorado, Stanford and heck even Oregon (the Bears were only down by 7 early in the 4th quarter)), stick out like sore thumbs. If just *one* of those went the Bear’s way, we’d already be looking forward to a bowl game, looking at today’s game as a can’t lose opportunity to improve our bowl situation.

Instead, the Bears have to go on the road to a place that has been the death of Cal fan’s dreams for generations. From 1973 to 1989, the Bears did not win at all, much less in Pasadena. Then their were the disasters in 2005, 2007 and 2011, all games in which the Bears were favored, but somehow laid an egg in Pasadena. And don’t forget the 20th ranked Bears in 2015 (hard to remember that, huh?) lost in Pasadena as well. Point being, the Rose Bowl has not been kind to the Bears. Frankly, this is probably the opponent where home-field advantage has meant the most (UCLA fans have their long list of “I can’t believe we lost that one” games in Berkeley as well). Add to this that UCLA is in the same boat: one win away from bowl eligibility in their final regular season game. And while we’re piling on, the Bears have *STUNK* on the road this year (most notably Oregon and Colorado, but Washington wasn’t exactly stellar either). Add it all up and it makes me very nervous about this game.

On paper it seems like these teams are similarly matched. UCLA lost to Arizona and Stanford worse than the Bears, although not meaningfully so. They lost to USC about the same. They beat Oregon, but without Herbert at QB, so it’s hard to compare. They beat Colorado, but did it at home. They got throttled by Washington just like Cal did. Put together, these results suggest fairly equal playing results. Their strength is their passing game and Rosen is considered a pretty good QB. But there’s reason to believe he can be confused the way Cal’s defense can do , particularly when the running game is easy enough to contain that the defense can be more aggressive in it’s swapping schemes. So, while it’s not a slam dunk, I don’t think in a neutral field game versus UCLA, it would be unreasonable to think Cal would win.

Sadly, all other things being equal, I don’t think I could make the same argument with the game in Pasadena.

But then comes the *HUGE*(!?!) wildcard that UCLA just fired their head coach, Jim Mora, and are playing with an interim head coach (the offensive coordinator).

Now, many would think this to be a good thing, but history doesn’t back that theory. Lots of teams have done better in this situation. Often it is a burden lifted, particularly when the head coach wasn’t well liked. Sometimes players feel like their jobs are on the line and they want to show up well on film in the last game, when the new staff arrives. But on the other side, for well liked coaches there is the depression factor. There’s the chaos on the sideline. There’s the distraction factor of wondering what is to come.

So, which is it? I’m going to go with disappointing distraction. All of the various UCLA webpages are full of articles about whether Chip Kelly is headed to Brentwood (my prediction: No stinking way) and other coaching change related headlines. You’d have to think that on a short week (with Thanksgiving in the middle) with all the reporters full of questions about Mora’s dismissal and his possible replacements are taking a notable toll on the teams preparation and focus right now.

And so I’m going to face the Rose Bowl demon straight in the eye and say “Not this year!” I think Wilcox has learned from the troubles the Bears have had in previous road games and will have the team ready to play tonight. He’ll have clearly put in their heads what’s at stake: Either go home and empty out your locker or get to play 4 more weeks of football. I also think he’s going to have a good game plan to confuse Rosen (who won’t have been spending a lot of time preparing).