The new ad ends the short-lived Jerry Seinfeld series. General consensus called those two TV spots somewhat random and rambling.

But will this new tactic – which basically says Windows is a victim – persuade shoppers to stick with Vista? We’ll see after the ad premiers tonight, but the forecast is gloomy.

Apple has become an increasing threat to PC makers. On Sunday, Change Wave posted its monthly consumer-tastes index (an unscientific but decent reading of personal tech preferences). Respondents who had planned to buy a new computer in the next 90 days said they were eyeing Apple laptops and desktops more than any other brand. The Mac numbers were at a record high for Change Wave – 34 percent of those in the market for laptops favored Apple (up 2 points), compared with 28 percent for Dell and 20 percent for HP.