"state of the union" with candy crowley begins right now. the most frez eeed week in politics opens as a monster storm stalks the east coast. hunker down and buckle up. today the ending begins. >> we can't afford four more years like the last four years. >> i need your help to keep moving america forward. >> the last nine days with obama campaign senior advisor david axelrod and republican national committee chairman reince priebus. and then bob mcdonald and former ohio democratic governor ted strickland. plus, who has a big mow. with republican polster, bill mack in tir, and

9:01am

pollster anna greenberg, and time magazine's michael duffy. i'm candy crowley. and this is "state of the union." hurricane sandy has sidelined the presidential campaigns in some spots. both candidates have canceled events in critical swing states, and in more conventional political news, a surprise nonetheless, the des moines register endorsed mitt romney for president. the first time in 40 years the newspaper picked the republican nominee. while the editors praise president obama's early efforts to revitalize the economy through his stimulus plan, it concluded his record on the economy the past four years does not suggest he would lead in the direction the nation must go in the next four years. joining me now for the politics of weather and everything else is obama campaign senior advisor david axelrod. good morning, david. let me start here with the storm. when you look at virginia where this is likely to be the swing state most affected, does anything worry you about that state being more or less paralyzed by weather for a couple three, four

9:02am

days? >> well, the first thing i think we should say is we're most concerned about people. this storm could affect 50 million americans. the president has been in close contact with fema and dhs and all the agencies that have responsibility here to make sure we're doing everything we can for people, and that's what he is going to continue to do throughout this -- throughout this storm, and in terms of how it affects the election, i don't think anybody really knows. obviously we want unfettered access to the polls because we believe that the more people come out, the better we're going to do, and so to the extent that it makes it harder, you know, that's a source of concern, but i don't know how all the politics will sort out. it depends on how scenarios are impacted and so the best thing we can do is focus on how we can help people during this storm and hope that it all clears out

9:03am

and that by the next weekend we'll be free of it and people can focus on the election. >> let me put up a recent abc news-washington post poll for our viewers. the question was who do you trust to do a better job on the economy? posed to likely voters. president obama 44%. governorromney, 51%. why after all this time does governorromney beat president obama when it comes to the question of who could best handle the economy? >> well, first of all, candy, there's a plethora of polls out there. >> a lot of them sort of show this, david. >> i actually prefer the cnn polls. i like the one you put out on friday where we were ahead in ohio and in states like ohio and elsewhere people know the reality, which is the president took tough steps to save our economy from freefall to save the auto industry, which governorromney would not have done, and he has a vision of how

9:04am

to move this economy forward. that will rebuild the middle class. that will -- and governorromney who runs around this country now saying i represent change doesn't represent change. he what he represents is a return to a failed task. >> still more feel think the governor would do better with the economy than the president. >> in that particular poll -- in that particular poll, candy, that may be the case, but in reality that's not the case. if you look at what is going on around the country, the flood of early voting that's going on all over this country very much in our favor i think people know what the reality is. they don't want to go back to the failed policies of the past. they want to move forward. they want to move forward in a way that creates solid economic growth that will lift the middle class. not the kind of trickle down

9:05am

policies that failed the country in the first place. >> you have suggested and others have suggested m campaign that the momentum that the romney campaign talks about and is evident in at least some of the state polls is a fiction and that the state polls are further apart and more to the advantage of the president than anyone is letting on. is that how you see this race in the final nine days? >> well, i do think that governorromney gained a little after the first debate. i think it levelled off. this race is where you and i have been -- i have said this to you many times over the course of the last year. it is a close race. as you look at these battleground states, we are even or ahead in virtually all of them in these critical states like ohio. we maintain a consistent lead. i think you had it as a three-point lead in october. a four-point lead with us at 50% as of friday, so, yes, that's how i view it, but the main thing is not to look at the polling, but to look at the voting. millions of people vote. about one-third of the people in iowa have voted, for example, and we believe that we are mounting up a very, very large lead in iowa based on where those early votes are coming from.

9:06am

we're enthused about what we're seeing. excuse me? >> democrats generally do better in most states in the early voting, the absentee. at least the early voting. >> the question -- but the question is, candy, how are you doing relative to the targets you set, relative to what you have done before? we've seen -- for example, in florida we've seen record turnout yesterday and particularly in our areas of strength far outpacing anything weave seen before whereby in florida we lost the mail-in vote there by 250,000 votes in the last election. still won florida this time we're much, much closer. 60,000 or so is what we believe. all the indications are very positive. we built our campaign and our organization for this very close race, and we're very confident in where we are now and where we're going to be on november 6th. >> i want to play you just a tiny sort of group of soundbytes that were taken from the

9:07am

president's speeches over the past week or so. >> governorromney is hoping you too will come down with a severe case of romnesia. everything he is doing right now is to hide his real positions and try to win this election. there's no jobs plan. there's just a snow job on the american people. >> there's a gallop poll out that shows that over the past couple of days the president's approval rating has actually dropped about seven points, and it coincides with this kind of rhetoric. is that your closing argument? is your closing argument to continue to pound governorromney? >> first of all, candy, i'm happy to go poll to poll for you, but let's set aside the polls for a second. the governor's closing -- the president's closing message is exactly what i said before, which is we've made some progress. we have to build on that process, and we have to move forward in a way that builds an economy that works for the middle class.

9:08am

what we can't can't do is go back to the failed policies of the past. governorromney, the centerpiece and really the only piece of his plan that is real is this $5 trillion tax cut. $2 trillion in extra spending for the pentagon. no plan to pay for, it and deregulate wall street. this is what's going to move us forward, and that's not going to move us forward. >> i asked you this because in general closing statements, as you know, tend to turn back to the positive side and there is an argument that a candidate still is pounding his adversary at this point is worried. >> well, candy, if you have been traveling with governorromney, he is pounding us pretty hard as well because this is a close election. it's a choice. there is no doubt that what americans have in front of them is a choice between policies that will, you know, emphasize

9:09am

education, research and development, clean energy technology, manufacturing and the kinds of things that will grow this economy, create good jobs, and give people the training and education they need to fill them. that's the president's plan. governorromney's plan is to go backwards to the trickle down theory of the past. that is a choice people face. we're going to keep hammering away at that choice until election day because there's a better future ahead of us, but we need to grab for it and not go backward to the policies that put us in this mess in the first place. >> david axelrod senior advisor of the president's campaign. thank you very much. when we return, governorromney is clear on what he thinks americans want. >> americans are ready for change, for growth, for jobs, and more take-home pay. we'll bring it to them. >> will he get the chance to deliver? that with rnc chairman reince priebus next. jack, you're a little boring.

9:10am

boring. boring. [ jack ] after lauren broke up with me, i went to the citi private pass page and decided to be...not boring. that's how i met marilyn... giada... really good. yes! [ jack ] ...and alicia. ♪ this girl is on fire [ male announcer ] use any citi® card to get the benefits of private pass. more concerts. more events. more experiences. [ jack ] hey, who's boring now? [ male announcer ] get more access with a citi card. [ crowd cheering, mouse clicks ] now, thaa test drive.ll silverado! the most dependable, longest lasting, full-size pickups on the road. so, what do you think? [ engine revs ] i'll take it.

9:11am

[ male announcer ] it's chevy truck month. just announced additional $750 bonus cash on a 2012 chevy silverado all-star. trade up to get a total value of $8,750. bonus cash ends october 31st.

9:12am

see life in the best light. [music] transitions® lenses automatically filter just the right amount of light. so you see everything the way it's meant to be seen. experience life well lit, ask for transitions adaptive lenses. [ male announcer ] it's time for medicare open enrollment. are you ready? time to compare plans and see what's new. you don't have to make changes, but it's good to look. maybe you can find better coverage, save money, or both. and check out the preventive benefits you get after the health care law. ♪ medicare open enrollment. now's the time. visit medicare.gov or call 1-800-medicare. ♪

9:13am

at meineke i have options... like oil changes starting at $19.95. my money. my choice. my meineke. republican chairman reince priebus, thank you for being here. >> thank you, candy. >> let me pick up on something that david axelrod said which is they essentially believe that there is not any momentum now on the governor's side and that the swing states are further apart advantage the president and that you all know that from your internal polls as well. >> it's just not true.

9:14am

our polling shows a lot of what the other polls are showing, which is clearly a momentum shift towards mitt romney. if you look at the state of play in ohio, for example, you know, a month ago we were seven points down. a couple weeks later we were five, three. some of them showing even today in the morning, so, i mean, when you have the momentum and you are a challenger in a tie race, the challenger wins in the tie race. >> he is correct that those absentee ballots coming in and the early voting, particularly in ohio and now apparently in florida, do heavily favor the president. does that surprise you? what's your pushback? >> well, there are two different types of early voting. there's absentee ballot mail voting, which we're ahead, and then there's early voting, which they're ahead. but what they're not telling you, they're telling you where we're ahead in early voting. what they're not telling you is that they are a fraction of

9:15am

where they were in 2008. they're not where they were in 2008. we're far ahead of where we were in 2008. we're going to be -- you know, our ground game is better than their ground game. we are going to do more voter contacts this year than all of 2008 and all of 2004 combined. we have an army on the ground. >> how do you know your ground game is better, we've always wondered this. how do you know that? >> that's a good question. you can't fake the numbers. we have voiceover internet phones. we have real-time -- we use google maps, iphones, ipads. we do a survey question door to door. they get transferred instantly -- they're instantly transferred on to computer dashboards, so i can tell you in a second at 1:30 today if you came by the rnc, i could show you what offices and we can put 40 offices in ohio, 50 offices in florida up on a screen, and i can tell you here's what's happening in youngstown. here's what's happening in hialeah, florida. instantly. the numbers are the numbers. they don't -- they're not created by us. we've got a ground game that is second to none, and the momentum

9:16am

is with us, and in a tie race, again, the challenger always wins in a tie race. >> there's a lot of talk among romney types and romney supporters saying we don't have to win ohio. i know you haven't given up there. there's other ways. we can expand the map. where would you expand the map should he not win ohio? where is that? >> i was just in iowa last night, and people feel pretty about what's going on in iowa. obviously "the des moines register" endorsed mitt romney because barack obama hasn't followed through with his promises, and i it tell you right now that a lot of the promises barack obama made were in iowa. he didn't come through on those promises. i think that's a big deal. wisconsin, i'll be there tomorrow. wisconsin, i think, right now the momentum is with governorromney. we've done a whole lot of winning as republicans in wisconsin. you look at colorado. >> let me stop you in wisconsin because i want to read you something that david axelrod told "the daily caller." >> we expected wisconsin to be closer than last time. it is in our column now, and it's going to be in our column. >> yeah, well, he can say whatever he wants to say.

9:17am

i mean, they haven't been able to win in wisconsin for a long time. they claim that the obama machine was out during the walker recall. we basically crushed them in wisconsin. i have seen firsthand the difference between obama's rhetoric on their ground game and the reality, and the reality is they're not as good as they think they are, but overall besides the ground game talk, this is about the president's policies, the current state of the economy. it is a complete disaster. only one person has been very clear on a plan to get this economy back on track, and that's been governorromney. the president still hasn't delivered anything serious as a plan. that's his problem. he has -- there's nothing there, candy. other than perhaps proving clint eastwood right. >> let me ask you about party image. i am reminded, mitch daniels, former governor of indiana, said very early on this party cannot be about social issues this time. we really need to concentrate on

9:18am

the economy, and, yet it keeps coming up, as you know, brought on in large part by republican candidates. you saw richard mourdock step into it with clumsy words or todd akin. putting two seats in danger that you all had sort of counted on in the senate. you see the president pounding you fairly hard, or pounding mitt romney fairly hard on this. here's an example of one of his ads that's out there. or not. it was -- >> hopefully reverse row v wade. planned parenthood, cut funding to that. >> no matter what mitt romney's ads say, we know what he'll do. >> my question for you is do these things hurt you? does it hurt the party image to have of these issues out there in a way that makes the party or that is portrayed as making the party look unbending and, you

9:19am

know, anti-woman, as is described in the obama ad some. >> i don't think any party has a monopoly on gaffs. clearly, you know, people running for office misspeak and they make mistakes, but i think the reality is, candy, overwhelmingly people out there are not -- i promise you, people out there are not talking about what richard mourdock said. what they're asking me about is -- >> there's no trickle up, you don't think, to the -- >> there are things people are talking about, and it's the economy, and they're talking about what happened in benghazi. why after a cry for help to leon panetta and after the president gave a directive to protect -- pen et a got a cry for help, he claims he gave a directive to protect those people panetta got a cry for help. panetta now claims that he didn't -- he told the personnel

9:20am

to stand down. so either the president didn't give the directive or the president isn't being truthful or perhaps leon panetta acted as commander in chief. that's what -- this is the subject right now that people are talking about, and the economy. not about richard murdock. -- mourdock. >> you more than anyone when this is over, you retain your job regardless of what happens, and you are dealing with party image, and so i think the other thing we have out there, of course, former governor sununu suggesting that colin powell is supporting president obama because president obama is black so is colin powell. he has since taken it back. as the party chairman, do you worry about stuff like that? >> well, you want people to be disciplined, and obviously, if people misspeak and they causes for no apparent reason, you know, small brush fires on their own, that's a distraction, but overall this is still an election about the economy. the president failed broken promises and now we have this issue with libya creeping into the debate over the last stretch here to election day. >> republican party chairman reince priebus, thank you for

9:21am

stopping by. >> thank you. when we return, the final days of the campaign. [ man ] not only that, the silverado's powertrain warranty is 40,000 miles more than ford. and this workhorse gives you the power of a v8 with the highway fuel economy of a v6. incredible! right? an amazing test drive. i agree. [ male announcer ] it's chevy truck month. just announced additional $750 bonus cash on a 2012 chevy silverado all-star. trade up to get a total value of $8,750.

9:22am

bonus cash ends october 31st.

9:23am

in politics as in real estate it's about location, location, location. this year the locations are eight states where the election will be won. two of them ohio and virginia. virginia voted for the republican presidential candidate for 44 years until 2008, when it went for barack obama. he won by racking up huge margins in the virginia suburbs of washington, d.c. and among african americans. mitt romney has spent $65 million and a lot of time trying to woo virginia back, and even some obama advisers are saying it looks like romney may pull off a win here. >> we're going to win virginia. you know that? we're going to win. >> and ohio has been critical.

9:24am

in fact, necessary to every republican presidential win. but president obama has held on to a small lead there. his strategists are buoyed by polling that shows a 2-1 lead for the president among early voters. the president staged the finale of his 48-hour marathon campaign in ohio. >> i am glad to be back in cleveland, ohio. >> despite the money, the trips, and the speeches, ohio and virginia remain stubbornly in the toss-up category. a newly released cnn poll shows the president with a 50 to 46 lead in ohio. former ohio governor ted strickland and virginia governor bob mcdonnell up next. namely, other humans. which is why, at liberty mutual insurance, auto policies come with new car replacement and accident forgiveness if you qualify.

copies of my acceptance speech. great! it's always good to have a backup plan, in case i get hit by a meteor. wow, your hair looks great. didn't realize they did photoshop here. hey, good call on those mugs. can't let 'em see what you're drinking. you know, i'm glad we're both running a nice, clean race. no need to get nasty. here's your "honk if you had an affair with taylor" yard sign. looks good. [ male announcer ] fedex office. now save 50% on banners.

9:27am

9:28am

with me now former ohio governor ted strickland and virginia governor bob mcdonnell. gentlemen, thank you both for joining me. i want to start with you, governor mcdonnell, because you have a storm coming your way, so you are seeing less of the presidential candidates and more of the weather forecasters, so let me ask you, first. i know you are doing what can you to kind of baton down the hatches in virginia. what are you being told to expect there?

9:29am

>> well, we're prepared, candy. we're expecting eight to ten inches of rain on the coast. hurricane force gusts. sustained winds of 50, 60 miles per hour. mild to moderate or severe flooding, and an extensive power outage. that's the biggest concern. over three or four days of storm effects. we have an executive order. an emergency declaration. we've got the guard called out, extra state police. we're ready. we're just asking people to be patient and ready for a long haul, but we have an aggressive power restoration program in place, and i think we're ready. >> let me ask you about the politics of the weather. let's say -- and virginia has known a couple of sort of what i would consider long power outages as does maryland where i live, we've had a couple of five day power outages. how does that then affect the election?

9:30am

let's say that this is a storm that lasts two days, dumps all this water, widespread power outages. what if anything tuesday you haven't got the power up? what happens at the voting booth? i'm sorry, a week from tuesday. >> we have contingency plans in place. we have had a show a couple of months ago, and we had the largest -- third largest power outage in history, but we got everything pretty much back on in seven days. we're not expecting that this time. we've got about 2,000 additional people that are coming into virginia to help our power suppliers, and the state board of elections is already planning for extended hours in advance for absentee voting, and it's now a priority, moved up to the same level of hospitals and police stations to have power restored, so we don't anticipate the problem. we'll be ready, but we're planning for contingencies if there's still a problem. >> if you still have a problem on election day, you're going to make election places, schools, fire stations, all that kind of stuff, top priority for getting electricity back? is that what i hear you saying? >> absolutely. i think we'll be ready, candy. we'll have to wait and see come wednesday when the storm passes

9:31am

where we are, but all hands will be on deck from other states to help us, and our people have been through this before. we're just not used to a hurricane followed by cold front and a snowstorm afterwards. >> okay. >> in the western part of the states. our people are ready. >> governor strickland, let me turn to you. i think you'll have a brush of the storm, but nothing to keep ohio politics at a standstill. i want to put up a couple of cnn-orc polls. this is choice for president unlikely voters in ohio. the president 48%. governorromney 44%. i want to show you another poll that shows that 92% of folks likely voters in ohio say they have already made up their minds. is the table set in ohio? >> well, i think it is, but, candy, let me say to the governor and to all those that are going to be affected by the storm, ohio, we wish them the best, and i know the governor will do everything possible to make sure his state and his

9:32am

citizens are well cared for, and i -- you know, my heart goes out to him and to others who are dealing with these very difficult circumstances. in regard to ohio, we are going to get some of the remnants of this storm, but it's going to be a great week in ohio. i think politically. both candidates are going to be here, and it's going to be a hard fought campaign, but the good news from my perspective is that president obama has maintained a small but a very consistent lead in ohio. i don't know of any poll that has shown the president not leading over the last few months, as a matter of fact. >> do you think it counts for the rise of independence? >> we have a good ground operation. >> what do you think -- >> i'm sorry? >> what do you think accounts for the rise of independents towards the romney campaign? what's going on there? >> i'm not sure there are many true independents. i think people who even refer to themselves as independents

9:33am

typically feel some kind of allegiance to one of the major parties or the other. ohio is a very closely divided state, but ohio's unemployment, as you know, is 7%. the auto industry, which ohioans value greatly and provides a lot of jobs for our people is doing really well, and thanks to the president, and so i think ohioans are feeling -- i think they think our economy is coming back. >> any credit to your republican governor? >> i'm sorry? >> do you give any credit for that economy to your republican governor? >> i think two -- >> i do, candy. >> well, candy, i think there are two major reasons why ohio's economy is coming back. first of all, the recovery act, which enabled ohio to be stabilized during the industry difficult time. ohio's economy started recovering before governor kasic became governor in 2010. our unemployment went down 1.6%.

9:34am

the recovery was underway in large part due to the recovery act, and the rescue of the american auto industry, which is so important to toledo and cleveland and youngstown, and quite frankly, some 80 -- out of ohio's 88 counties, we believe benefit directly from the auto industry and so i'm not saying that there is -- there has been no improvement under the current governor, but i believe the table was set by president obama and ohioans recognize that, and i think that's why the president is going to win ohio. >> let me turn to governor mcdonnell. new washington post poll out showing president obama at 51. governorromney at 47%. this is a race that has a similar situation in ohio. your economy is doing better than the national economy is, and this has been a tough row for him to hoe. what does mitt romney have to do if he can get into the state after the storm to turn this around?

9:35am

>> well, first i do want to thank governorromney who called me yesterday and agreed to cancel three events in virginia today to allow our first responders to focus on that. i appreciate it. the president is doing the same thing tomorrow. you mentioned the post poll. there are two other polls, both rasmussen and fox, that have romney up by two. it's margin of error. it's close, and it's going to come down to turn out the last undecided voters. i think why romney will win virginia is because he is the one that's going to reverse these sequestration cuts. they're going to devastate the military and cost us $200,000 jobs. the president has been a bystander and won't do that. he is the one with the plan to create jobs and we've got 23 million people that don't have jobs nationally and eight -- excuse me -- $16 trillion in debt. that's what virginians are concerned about and why there's been this momentum towards governorromney. the mishandling of the -- no

9:36am

transparency. 45 days after the fact. it's a great concern. either the president gave an order that was disobeyed by the secretary of defense to provide support in benghazi or he didn't, and i think people want answers before this election on that, so that's what's going to determine the outcome. we got a great ground game, and i expect governorromney to win a close election in virginia, candy. >> you may need some voters to get to the polls. we wish you well. got a big storm coming before we even get to the election. we'll have our fingers crossed for virginia and maryland and surrounding states. thank you for being here. former ohio governor, ted strickland, thank you as well. when we return, the latest developments on hurricane sandy. 

9:37am

9:38am

9:39am

the northeast is bracing for a hit from hurricane sandy. meteorologist bonnie schneider is at the cnn weather center tracking the storm. bonnie, what's the latest? >> right now, hurricane sandy is 575 miles south of new york city and the storm is on the move. as a category one, 75 miles per hour, but it is interesting to note we have some updates to tell you about. first off, the track. we're expecting landfall late monday into early tuesday. you can see that here as the storm works its way on shore somewhere between new jersey and possibly anywhere in the dell ma have a region. what's of note, the storm surge, that's abnormal rise in water due to the storm itself, and it really can pile water up quickly and bring it well inland. so taking a look at the updated graphic, now we're looking at

9:40am

storm surge in the area in purple, 6 to 11 feet from long island sound, rareton bay and new york harbor. a higher storm surge amount than originally forecasted. that's not the only place impacted by sandy's storm surge. you will see it further to the south as well, looking at the risk for flooding and strong, damaging winds. candy? >> our thanks to bonnie. up next, which candidate is closer to closing the deal? billion dollars to help those affected and to cover cleanup costs. today, the beaches and gulf are open, and many areas are reporting their best tourism seasons in years. and bp's also committed to america. we support nearly 250,000 jobs and invest more here than anywhere else. we're working to fuel america for generations to come. our commitment has never been stronger.

9:41am

9:42am

9:43am

9:44am

president obama and romney making closing arguments in campaign ads. joining me, mike duffy and ann a greenberg. thank you, makes you want to cry with the music. hardly know we had the campaign we had, right? i want to ask you about the

9:45am

polling. seems to me there are two separate stories coming out and one is from the obama campaign, which is this thing is not as close as everyone keeps saying. we're solid in the swing states, and republicans know that. when we are looking at these national polls and even when we're looking at the state polls, do you see that as true? >> i think there is things we should be able to agree about. one, this race is at a point, polsters don't know who is going to win. >> really, you don't. >> no. you get to 1 point margin as a polster with ten days left, do i want to say with one point margin i know the result? i think there's other things we can know. we will see the largest difference between men and women voting we have seen in my political lifetime, and between ethnicity as large as we've ever seen. a lot of what makes this election difficult to predict, what's the composition of the electorate, that's among the most difficult things to assess

9:46am

as a polster. >> if you look at the national polls, it is right with 1 point or 2 point lead to say obama or romney will win. once you take into account state polling, average of state polling, not one that comes out one day that has obama up or down four, but taking into account early vote and vote by mail, you get a better picture for the president. when they say their state polling is better, i think that's what they mean. i am not sure about the gender gap. obama is competitive with men and struggling some with women. i think this may be an election where we have a narrower gender gap than the past. >> mike, i want to get you in on this, since we are talking about female voters, this is an a p poll from october 19 to 23, so before, a little before the last debate where among likely female voters, it is a tie between president obama, female voters,

9:47am

between president obama and governorromney. do you believe that? >> well, i think the only poll you can view is the one on election day. it is getting awfully late in many more states than i would have guessed a few weeks ago, so it is not only the different types of voters, it is the number of states seen a shrinking, smaller percentage. even ohio, time had it four points, cnn had it five, its state has it dead even. if you froze the race, you could say something about perhaps where it is going but it isn't frozen, a long way to go. >> ap polls are wrong about women, it is not tied. he is going to win women voters, won them by 13 points last time. he is going to win them. >> he has this number, in the end, he is not going to win. president obama won't win if the numbers hold. >> you look at the average in

9:48am

friends. since october 2nd to today, all nine swing states, romney made up ground. here is what's important. since monday through today, romney kept or lost margin in one state to obama, not winning north carolina as much. it means as you look at average trends, this race isn't moving towards obama, it is moving in any direction towards romney, including in the swing states, and that trend and average is important. >> yeah, i disagree. i think it is actually stable and that's where i think the ground game everyone talks about matters most. i will tell you, women are not even, about 51, 52% for obama, he got 56%. only reason he's ahead nationally is he is doing okay with men. romney getting 51% of men, which means a small gender gap. >> dana, we will know for sure, i think that's totally wrong. president obama is losing white men by 30 plus points. he is going to -- >> talking all of it. >> he is going to get whacked by

9:49am

men by double digit margin. >> a huge drop. >> he could lose the election. >> see where he ends up with men, too. one of the surprising things in our poll in ohio, middle of the week, among white men, white men without college, holding obama for 43%, a lot higher than we've seen in other states. it will be ironic if at the end of the day it is white men who make a difference, particularly in upper industrial midwest states where the auto bailout happened. >> let me, i want to, it speaks to this, chairman of the ohio republican party who said to "time" there's no question the automobile issue probably cut into some traditional support, we'd be running away with, seems that traditional support is white, blue collar workers. >> there are 20 surveys released since the debates. among independents, romney is

9:50am

ahead in 17 of 20, and in average, ahead with independents by ten points. what they have to measure, what's the party id difference election day. if the party id difference in ohio is what we see nationally, 2 to 4 points for the democrats, or closer, we will wake up in ohio with 100,000 vote margin. my point as polster, whether 100,000 or 50,000 votes is romney's or the president, that's beyond what i think polsters can predict. >> two things. one, no question obama struggled in '08 and now with blue collar voters. mike said that's less true not just in ohio, indiana, wisconsin, michigan, and not just because of the auto bailout, because those economies are doing better than other parts of the country. >> because they have republican governors. >> okay. well -- >> let me ask you when you look at what has worked, seems to me we are where we were when we started this. for all that happened in

9:51am

between, this is president obama going but you don't want that guy, he'll take us back to what started this, and you have governorromney going he hasn't done enough. i mean, it is the exact same argument they started with. is that the closing -- >> getting to the uplifting, swelling closing arguments, they haven't happened yet. at the moment, they're obama's ad about romney involves a yacht and mitt romney is in a limousine, no words associated with those but you see the pictures. they try to close on something more upbeat but we're not there. shows you how much further we have to go in ten days. >> only periods where obama had beyond margin of error lead was during the sort of republican primaries where yahoos were running and also the month and a half from august to september. otherwise, the rest of the year the race has been tied, whether against romney or when obama was up against a generic republican.

9:52am

i think that's right, not much has changed in the last year. >> we're asking the president to do something hard. consumer confidence is at historic lows a long period of time. nbc, "the wall street journal" poll, we ask do you want minor change, major change. 62% want major change. when you're incumbent in a difficult economy and people look for major change, you're trying to do something really difficult and that's be able to give you four more years. the question where you say what's the biggest concern, no new ideas from obama or return to bush, that was 47-47, just like the race. >> that's why romney is beginning to make the argument in the close how i represent the change. i think it is quite interesting. >> it is interesting. mike duffy, thank you for joining us this morning, anna greenberg, we will have you back after the election to see how right or wrong we were. >> we will be much smarter after the election. >> thank you all very much. up next, 2012 campaigns

9:53am

undercard some ballot races we're keeping an eye on.

9:54am

[music] see life in the best light. transitions® lenses automatically filter just the right amount of light. so you see everything the way it's meant to be seen. experience life well lit, ask for transitions adaptive lenses.

9:55am

9:56am

9:57am

finally we go down ballot. if you're voting you have more than one decision to make. across the country there are 33 senate races and 12 governorships at stake. we asked our favorite cnners about their races. >> i'm going to be watching in my home state of indiana. not only is this race interesting as it unseated long-time senator richard lugar before after richard mourdock's comments about rape -- >> i truly regret. i apologize. >> it's going to be interesting to see how this whole thing shakes out and if this red seat turns blue. >> i always love a personal story and in health whether or not mia love, a black mormon republican is going win a house seat is going to be historic.

9:58am

>> this is our time! we are truly the best last hope on earth! >> senate races, house races, ballot initiatives. equality. marijuana, there's plenty to watch outside the presidential election. i'm looking forward to that special cnn music when you have a projection. >> last night the people of iowa spoke with a very clear voice. so i have decided to stand aside. >> i'm looking at minnesota right now, that congressional race michele bachmann, former republican presidential candidate, she apparently is in a tough race against the democrat, jim graves. i'm anxious to see what happens in minnesota. >> my favorite down-ballot race for this election cycle is the race for congress in california's 10th district.

9:59am

a guy by the name of jose hernandez is running, and he's an astronaut. to think that his ads could essentially be footage from him in space looking to the earth i think is quite amazing. >> it's always safe to go with your home state on stuff like this, and i happen to be from ohio. so i'm going to go with the sherrod brown, josh mandell race in ohio. >> you are a liar. >> i don't need a lecture from a guy who can't wait to get to the next job and run for higher office and move up the ladder. >> you might try to push people around in washington, but you're not going to push me around. >> really looking forward to it being over. >> thanks for watching "state of the union." i am candy crowley in washington. head to cnn.com/sotu for analysis and extras. if you missed any part of today's show, find us on itunes. search state of the union. "fareed zakaria gps" is next for our viewers in the united states.