tina says she'll wait because she likes the excitement of election day and in oregon, voted for romney and proud to say i convinced two others to do so as well. >> paul: this week on the journal editorial report, the presidential campaign against back on track in the wake of superstorm sandy. headed into the final days, we'll look at the final arguments and 33 seats up for grabs in the senate and the power could hinge on a few key races and tell you which to watch. what they could mean for taxpayers, school kids and organized labor. welcome to the journal editorial report. i'm paul gigot. the presidential campaign kicked back into high gear late in week in the wake of

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hurricane sandy with president obama and mitt romney making their final pitches to swing state voters. >> governor romney has been using all his talents as a salesman to dress up these very same policies that failed our country so badly. the very same policies we've been cleaning up after for the past four years. >> attacking me does not create an agenda for him. we actually have a plan to get this economy going. >> paul: and joining the panel this week, wall street journal columnist and deputy editor dan henninger, political diary editor jason riley, james freeman and washington columnist kim strassel. >> any evidence that hurricane sandy is going to affect this race? >> i think, yes, i think it might, in the sense that -- i think one of the big elements in the race is the level of enthusiasm on both sides. my strong sense, paul, this is an enthusiasm deficit on the

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democratic side. >> paul: all the polls show that. >> all the polls show that and i think it's a going to be a determining factor, now, new jersey, new jersey, maryland, it isn't going to decide whether-- obama will win those states. his popular vote may be down, i think the hurricane is going to suppress the popularity vote. >> paul: dampen that. >> and i spoke to a pollster not working for the obama campaign and agreed with dan's sentiment, turnout was an issue for democrats, enthusiasm is down, but also says that he thinks this allowed obama, even though he missed some days on the campaign trail, allowed him to get out there and show some leadership, some bipartisanship, thanks to the new jersey governor, republican chris christie be being at his side for a couple of days. >> paul: i want to ask you, new jersey residents, and generally a fan of governor chris christie, what do you make of this embrace of the governor with the president? >> well, our colleague peggy

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noonan, says you want to keep your friends close, but your president closer. i think certainly, mr. christy is dealing with had an emergency and trying to get help as soon as possible. there is a sense that these kind of situations will make people turn and embrace big government, but you're already seeing a lot of of flaws in the federal response, fema not getting a lot of these generators that they promised online quickly, so, i don't see any kind of a national move toward bigger government as a result. >> paul: kim, the other big story this week is that the romney campaign has been expanding the field. the electoral field moving into pennsylvania with a very big ad buy much bigger than the obama campaign and even talking a little how the fact that minnesota could be into play and the president was in wisconsin, and close to campaign in iowa, places where he should, you think he would have locked up. do you take this expansion of the field seriously? >> yeah, and i think that this is part of the momentum

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argument for romney, now, you've had the obama campaign desperately trying to tamp that down saying it's not true, it's not real. the reality is what you've seen since the denver debate is mitt romney pulling ahead in a lot of places, now, that momentum has slowed down a little bit in some of these very hard fought swing states like ohio and virginia, where the president is now throwing a lot of resources, but that's the story, is that has continued in other areas, like pennsylvania, minnesota, michigan, wisconsin. and the fact that you are going to have both romney and rhein in separate occasions in pennsylvania this weekend, suggest that they take this seriously. you don't go to a state and two days before an election unless you think there's potential. >> paul: let's take a president obama ad attacking mitt romney in ohio. >> it's said that character is what we do when we think no one is looking. >> mitt romney thought no one was looking when he attacked

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47% of americans, his company shipped jobs overseas, his plan cuts millionaires taxes, but raises yours. he'll voucherize medicare and make catastrophic cuts to education. so remember what romney said and what his name would do. >> paul: taking our name in vein, the 15th time, the wall street journal does not agree with any of the-- >> what do you think? >> this is a-- this is a distilled message (laughter) of the campaign. >> he keeps returning to this class warfare theme and this is in ohio and thinks the outsourcing, hitting the rich. 47% plays well with less educated white men in the midwest and where he's focusing ads. >> paul: is that really a good closing argument, dan? that's not an argument for the

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second term. >> it's not. and i honestly do not understand it, paul. it's -- i think it reflects barack obama's antipathy toward mitt romney? >> personal? >> i think so, he's been wanting to take him down from the beginning. and he's been running the same campaign from the beginning. and voters are out there still the economy the number one issue, waiting for the president to tell them what his plan is for a second term to get the economy growing than the jobs report this week suggested. >> let's turn to a mitt romney ad this week about president obama. >> barack obama says he may appoint a secretary of business. his solution to everything is to add another bureaucrat. why not have a president who actually understands business? under obama, millions of people can't find work. and more families on welfare and a record number of americans on food stamps.

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mitt romney understands business, knows how to create jobs, and get our economy moving. he's done it before, he can do it again. >> paul: james, good message? >> well, i think so. the second half of it was positive and the first half, the secretary of business idea, it's a number of the-- one of the number of signs suggesting that the obama campaign thinks it's losing where they're throwing out ideas late in the campaign as a kind of a disorganized panicked quality and as the ad says, another bureaucracy is not the answer. >> paul: don't we have a secretary of commerce that's supposed to be a secretary of business? >> and we don't even need that one so the idea that we want to add another. who knows? a secretary of business under an obama administration, making sure that alternative energy companies getting more advantage over other types of firms? i mean, yikes. >> paul: my only problem with that ad i think it's a distraction, in the sense that romney ought to be focused directly at the camera, here

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is my plan and contrast with the president. that's when he's most effective. gentlemen and kim we'll continue after the break. much more ahead on this final weekend before the election, with october's unemployment numbers in, will the economy take center stage once again in the campaign's final days? from local communities to local businesses. the potential of yelp unlocked. nyse euronext. unlocking the world's potential. s

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>> the unemployment rate ticked up slightly to 7.9%, with employers adding 171,000 jobs. in the final measure of the u.s. economy's health ahead of tuesday's election. so, james, is this going to affect the campaign much, do you think? >> i think it does, i think it confirms that president obama's economic policies have failed on their own terms, that we still officially have a lousy economy and more than 12 million people unemployed, it's 23 million, if you count the people who are working part-time because they can't get full-time work, people who quit. so, yes, if this is a

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referendum on his economic policy with it. >> i know you wanted to get a point in here before i interrupted in the first segment about that. >> this is that we talk about the distortions of the ad, the bigger whopper that the president is telling on the campaign trail in the first clip where he basically says deregulations and tax cuts of the bush years caused the crisis and now mitt romney is going to do them again. there was no deregulation in the bush years. it's a myth that he's been perpetrating for years and any of the tax cuts caused the financial crisis, that's why lehman brothers and bear-stearns had too much-- >> the housing market. >> the housing market, it's insane. i think mr. mitt romney ought to be pushing back. >> as a quick extension, his idea instead of doing that with the economy back on its heels, raise taxes, which he will do if he gets reelected and impose more regulation on the economy. that's his solution to the problem we had before. >> i think the contrast in

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these closing arguments are very telling. obama decides to double down on the character assassination and class warfare, romney is talking bipartisanship, and he was a governor of a blue state. one sounds more presidential than the other. >> paul: the president is throwing out attempts to say, well, i'm going to get a big budget deal with congress, i real want bipartisan immigration deal, hey, maybe, even tax reform. >> this is really important, yeah, because he's being very critical of romney and last weeks we're seeing the glimmer of hope and change obama and trying to get that back and the testament with independent voters and women and they voted for him in 2008 because, again, he claimed to be a new type of politician. i don't think this was working. it's falling over flat. it's hard to look like the inspirational candidate when 90% of your advertising aimed at knee-capping your opponent,

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but he suggests that he knows that they have a problem with those voting segments. >> paul: you know, kim, i can't recall an election where both sides seem so convinced they're going to win coming in the final days, usually a concessions in 2008, mccain really doesn't have much of a chance, a hail mary. this time both sides seem convinced they're going to win. how do you explain that. >> i think both sides have two reasons to win. the 2008 turnout machine and some aspects that look like they'll get a decent job. but on the romney side, enthusiasm of voters and independents swinging to him in a huge way. it's important, it's hard to win an election unless you have independents behind you and you break it out into the swing states and some are going for obama, leaning toward him and some are leaning toward romney and

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that's behind the enthusiasm on both sides. >> no question, romney has expanded the field well beyond mccain and in striking distance or ahead in almost all of the key states. >> the polls are giving hope. the national polls have consistently shown romney with a slight lead since, you know, mid october or so, but the state polls continue to show obama with a, some advantages in the electoral votes, so, i think both sides are looking at the polls and seeing hope. >> dan, let's step back briefly here, how important is this election? we always say the elections are the most important in x years, but i think this is the most important election since ronald reagan certainly in terms of setting the direction of the country and validating or not the huge expansion of government that barack obama has promoted in the first term. >> i agree, paul. i mean, historically the country is divided in the past century between the private economy and the public government. and there's always been a

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division of duties there. barack obama is trying to take spending from 20% of grosse pointe woods over the last 25 years up to about 23%. >> paul: for the starters. >> for starters and plus, make the federal government the lead role in the direction of the economy in a way that no previous president has ever done and i think that that is the decision the american people have to decide is whether they want washington, the federal government finally to lead the country or to have that reside and decisions made by everybody who is working in the private sector. >> paul: all right. still ahead, we go from the presidential race to the battle for control of the united states senate. could a big night for mitt romney tuesday mean a g.o.p. takeover there? our panel previews the races to watch next. med up to bring you a low-priced medicare prescription drug plan. ♪ with a low national plan premium... ♪ ...and copays as low as one dollar... ♪

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>> turning now to the battle for control of the united states senate, where right now, democrats hold a slim majority, but that balance of power could change with the outcome of just a handful of races on tuesday. no, which ones should you be watching? we're back with dan henninger, jason riley and kim strassel and editorial board member steve moore also joins the panel. so, kim, not too long ago, people were talking about republicans picking up six, seven seats net. now it looks like the fortunes have changed and say they may not pick up the three they need. what happened? >> well, what you've got here is a number of races that are just become much more closer than you thought. the republicans are three down. and they are likely to lose maine, they may lose massachusetts, where scott brown a rerunning and may lose indiana where dick luger was primaried this year and

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richard murdoch running against donnelly. a good pickup opportunities, nebraska and north dakota, but most of the reigning ones of these races are very, very close, so if you need five or six, what we seem to be looking at here is a replay of 2010 where the numbers are possible, but the republicans to take control are pretty much going to have to run the table and may depend how mitt romney does that night. >> paul: steve, is this a candidate problem in part? scott brown has done, i mean, is a tremendous political talent, very, very good politician for that state, but it looks like he may lose to elizabeth warren just because that state is so liberal? >> yeah, well, let me answer your question, i think it's pretty lousy candidates on the republican side of the aisle and democrats are recruiting pretty good candidates this year, examination, bob carey in nebraska is making that price potentially tight. a red state. your home state of wisconsin tammy baldwin from madison is hardly a centrist democrat,

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but she's running as one, and meanwhile, tommy thompson, who was the four term governor of wisconsin, is running a tired campaign and not appealing to voters. my favorite race, paul, is the one in arizona which should not be tight, a very red state and the reason that's important is because jeff flake, a taxpayer hero, made his career in the house as mr. anti-earmark, all, he's being attacked in arizona by some republican business groups for not bringing home the bacon. >> paul: but i've been told that that race has turned toward jeff flake in the last week and a pretty comfortable lead and likely to win. >> i agree. >> what about the problem of candidate talent? todd aiken had-- >> some self-inflicted wounds and you mentioned tommy thompson and jeff flake, primary races left them bloody for the general election, and

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tommy thompson had no money or negatives and that's hurt as well. not only the candidates sometimes, it's the primary process. >> there's more competition on the republican side, that's what the primaries have suggested. there's ferment inside the republican party. on the democratic side, less so, but an interesting thing about the democratic party and kim strassel wrote about this in her column this was, with the exception of elizabeth warren in massachusetts virtually all of these candidates are running in the political center or even to the right of center out of sync completely with the national democratic party. >> paul: let's give our viewers a flavor of that. >> i'm heidi hidecamp if you want a senator that only votes the party line either way out on one side or the other then you'll probably not your candidate. i'll do what's right, that's why i stood up to president obama with the balanced budget amendment and the keystone pipeline and capital and

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trade. no matter what, i'll protect farmers from overregulation, i'll approve this message because i'll only answer to you. >> paul: that's remarkable stuff, kim. and in indiana joe donnelly, a congressman riching against mourdock, he voted for obamacare and now he's running so far to the right he's going to bump the rear end of michele bachmann's pickup truck. >> you almost feel sorry for rick berg how do you go to the right of heidi? but you see this everywhere, you see all of these candidates, joe donnelly you just mentioned is out there saying i'm going to extend all of the bush tax cuts. heidi hydecamp talking to opposition of obama on keytone pipeline, on cap and trade and one of the problems for the republican as candidates, not only some of whom are a little inexperienced, and tied a little to the tea party and grass roots in some ways been a drag on them in some places,

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but the fact that it's hard again, to make a big contrast with some of the democrats running, even though their record suggests they wouldn't actually vote that way. >> can i add something to that, paul. >> yeah, i think that kim is right. i find is interesting that some of the states like montana and north dakota are running against the obama energy policy. people that are running for the pipeline, they're running for, now, for more drilling and by the way, heidi hydecamp says she would urge, urge president obama to fire for lisa jackson. if she could do that, i'd vote for her. >> she's the head of the epa and once they're in office reliable votes for president obama if he wins. >> of course. >> paul: one surprise before we go, heather wilson has been closing the republican there, a tough state because mitt romney isn't going to win that state, but that may be one to look at, 'cause she's been gaining. coming up in our second half hour, with the national polls

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tied up all eyes are on independents. we'll check in with pollster witt ayers who has new numbers. with all 135 house seats up. a look at what the 113th congress might look like and a roundup of other measures on the ballot in states across the country. including a big showdown in california. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 let's talk about low-cost investing. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 at schwab, we're committed to offering you tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 low-cost investment options-- tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 like our exchange traded funds, or etfs tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 which now have the lowest tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 operating expenses tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 in their respective tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 lipper categories. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 lower than spdr tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and even lower than vanguard. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 that means with schwab, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 your portfolio has tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 a better chance to grow. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and you can trade all our etfs online, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 commission-free, from your schwab account. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 so let's talk about saving money, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 with schwab etfs. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 schwab etfs now have the lowest operating expenses tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 in their respective lipper categories. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 call 1-800-4schwab

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unitedhealthcare has been helping people live healthier lives. remember, open enrollment ends friday, december 7th. we can help. call unitedhealthcare to learn about medicare plans that may be right for you. call now. ♪ >> from america's election headquarters, president obama and mitt romney making their final arguments as election day approaches. a couple of days away now, romney visiting three battle ground states, new hampshire, iowa and colorado. and iowa is on the president's itinerary along with wisconsin ohio and virginia. and gas shortages a big problem in the wake of hurricane sandy. the defense of defense is setting up emergency mobile gas stations to ease shortages in the new york city metro area and this is the scene in

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new jersey, the state is now rationing gasoline in 12 different counties to try to ease the lines at gas stations and drivers with odd numbered plates can buy gas today. if you have even numbered plates in new jersey you have to buy gas on even numbered days so that would be tomorrow. and then days after, sandy, ripping through the northeast cleanup continues. we'll be back later. ♪ >> welcome back to the journal editorial report, i'm paul gigot, well, the final weekend before the presidential election and national polls show the race in a dead heat. like many analysts, republican pollster ayers says the key to victory for either candidate rests with independents and he has new numbers to share with us. great to have you back on the program. is the race -- is the race really as tight as the polls seem to suggest? >> it is incredibly tight. just incredibly tight.

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what's not tight now is the standing among independents who gave barack obama an 8 point margin ever victory in 2008, 52-44. we're now showing in our latest resurgent, 51-39 for mitt romney. this is nothing new, independents have been going south on obama since the spring of 2009 after he proposed his stimulus package and a budget with a trillion dollar deficit. this is the first time in our polling that we've seen romney with a double digit lead over obama. that would be a huge turn arn if the numbers held, a 20-point net turn around from the election in 2008. >> paul: okay, if that's true, and i agree with you the polls are showing that movement of independents to romney, if that's right and a big switch from 2008, why doesn't romney

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have a more comfortable lead at least 2 or 3 points in these polls? >> 90% of the disagreement in the polls right now, paul, involves differing assumptions about the makeup of the electorate. if we have an electorate that looks like 2004, with equal numbers of democrats and republicans turning out, then a double digit lead for romney among independents means he wins comfortably. >> paul: right. >> on the other hand if we have an electorate that looks like 2008 with 7 percentage points more democrats than republicans in the electorate, then that's probably enough to save obama, even if he loses independents by a dozen points. >> well, where-- >> it's all in the makeup. >> paul: where do you think the recognizance electorate is going to turn out? somewhere maybe in between 2004 and 2008? and that would, i guess, make it very close. >> our last poll shows a 4.democratic margin of 35 democrat, 31 republicans. >> so that's right way,

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halfway between 2004 and 8. >> exactly. but frankly, paul, nobody knows, with 100% assurance exactly what this electorate is going to look like on tuesday, and if anybody tells you they do, they're lying. >> paul: okay. now the other big discrepancy in the polls is the difference between the national surveys, which have obama and romney very, very close to tied and the state swing state polls, which have, except for north carolina and florida, basically have the two candidates either tied, but obama having a one, two or more point lead, as many as five in some state polls, lead over romney. why the discrepancy between the national survey and the state polls? >> the discrepancy is caused by the tremendous number of negative ads that the obama campaign ran against mitt romney over the course of the last six months. a rising tide lifts all boats,

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but it doesn't lift them quite as far in the battle ground states as it does elsewhere because of all the negative ads that the obama campaign has run. nevertheless, a lot of those states are incredibly close, there are eight states right now that are within less than 3 points. so, who knows which way those are going to go on tuesday. >> paul: there's another a factor here which is interesting in the polling, which is in these head to head surveys in the swing states, president obama typically can't get above 47, 48%, even if he's leading romney by a couple of points, he can't get rise to get to that 50% level and that gives a lot of people in the romney camp confidence that when it comes to election day, or the president is going to increase his vote much beyond that and they can-- and the undecideds will break towards romney. what do you think about that argument? >> in open seat races, undecides tend to break

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evenly, but with incumbent reelection campaigns, undecideds tend to break for the challenger, that doesn't mean exclusively for the challenger. the people who decided it in the last week in 2004 voted for kerry over bush-- >> so they went for the challenger. >> they went for the challenger disproportionately, that might be just enough to get romney over the top. >> it may be in-- same in 1996, even though bob dole did lose, the undecides, did break for him. >> where do you think this is going to go if i can put you on the spot. >> with the knowledge that pollsters tend to be better at predicting the past than the future. i think if current trends hold, i believe that romney will probably win the popular vote. we will see whether that's enough to win the electoral college as well.

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>> do you have any surprise states that romney might pick up that aren't on the radar, minnesota, pennsylvania? >> those are a stretch. the ones that we really need to go for romney are virginia and colorado which are just incredibly close with of course, new hampshire and ohio, he wins those, he will probably pull it out. >> thanks, appreciate you being here. still with all 135 seats in the house up for reelection, does either party stand to win big or lose big on tuesday? our panel is back to tell you next. [ male announcer ] you've reached the age where you don't back down from a challenge. this is the age of knowing how to make things happen. sowhy let erectile dysfunction get in your way? talk to your doctor about viagra. 20 million men already have. ask your doctor if your heart is healthy enough for sex. do not take viagra if you take nitrates for chest pain; it may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure.

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>> all 435 seats in the house of representatives are up for election next week, but few are predicting a party change in the house where right now, republicans have a 24-seat advantage. so what should congress watchers be looking for on tuesday night? and will the outcome make a difference for governing? we're back with dan henninger, jason riley, kim strassel and steve moore. so, steve, republicans picked up 63 seats in 2010. now, usually in the next election. >> right. >> paul: a lot of those members, some of whom probably weren't professionals, they won because of the wave not because of their own talents and some of those usually washed out yet, this year, it sounds as if that's not going to happen with too many of them.

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why? >> well, it's going to happen with some of them. the republicans probably picked up about ten seats that were in pretty heavily democratic districts and probably surrender those, but they lost, don't forget, paul, republicans have an advantage because they pick up a seat as a result of redistricting and red states picked up more seats, for example, texas and blue states lost seats. i want to make one prediction here and you can come back to me next week and see if i'm right. i actually think, i think there's an anti-incumbent move out there not fully picked up in the polls and i wouldn't be surprised if they're on the republican and democrat side, you see high profile members that have been around for a long time losing. one example, make outrageous, i think that henry waxman, for example, in california is in trouble and it's because there's so much fear and anxiety among the voters out there. >> a real outliar prediction if you can pull that off i'll buy you dinner, steve, let me tell you. and here is the thing, jason,

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congressman approval rating 16%. >> it's that high? (laughter) >> people have been saying, as steve said, let's throw the bums out and yet, it doesn't seem to be happening. >> well, you're going to see some of those democratics, steve, that republicans wanted in california, new york, probably shift back and you're also going to see down in the south and some parts of the midwest, republicans sort of consolidating, no more blue dogs, probably, after this election. >> conservative. >> very few. >> conservative democrats, those are going away? >>, but there are also some republicans, high profile republicans who are in trouble. alan west, for example, is running in a district where obama won. and michele bachmann is feeling the heat in minnesota, steve king in iowa is running against the wife after former governor, tom vilsack and he's

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feeling the heat, too, an interesting night. >> one of the interesting strategies, the reason they said they would take the house back, they would put pressure on the so-called orphan states, california, and where mitt romney isn't playing, they're not competitive in that race, but the house seats, okay, we can plow a lot of money in, and republican turnout will be down and we can turn the seats, but they're going to win a couple of them, but surprising so far in the polling, republicans are holding their own in those seats, why? >> you're right. they are he' doing this very aggressively, especially going after freshmen that won in 2010, guys like bobby schilling in illinois the first republican to get elected in his district in 30 years. the reason you're not going to see a huge shift is because one thing the republicans did well. not only being aggressive in the south and some of their home tougher, but they in contrast to the senate recruited some really great

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candidates themselves in some of these orphan states as you mentioned and they're putting pressure on prominent democrats in the riace ins some the areas. they may lose the seats, but hold their losses. >> dan, the ryan budget it was supposed to be, pelosi was waving it as the thing to bring her back to the speakership. >> an interesting point. one thing that has to be raised here in the context this have discussion, if barack obama loses, what does that mean for the progressive left wing of the democratic party represented by nancy pelosi and harry reid, and the fact that the progressives hold control of the big cities, los angeles, san francisco, new york, northern urban areas, a lot of the elections we're talking about in the suburbs among people who are much more toward the center of politics and i think if obama loses it's going to be a battle for the democratic party between the progressives and what bill clinton

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represents. >> paul: i think i know who wins that, the progressive win that contest. steve, what do you think about what happens if the republicans lose only a handful of seats in the house and president obama is reelected. does that mean the republicans feel chasen and have to do what president obama wants? >> no, it's the republican firewall and speaker boehner and barack obama doing battle again for four more years. >> paul: okay, when we come back, tuesday's vote won't just decide the presidency and control of congress. there are 176 initiatives on the ballot in 38 states. and they could affect everything from where your kids go to school to how much you pay in taxes. we'll profile some of the big ones next. it's the little things in life that make me smile. spending the day with my niece. i don't use super poligrip for hold because my dentures fit well. before those little pieces would get in between my dentures and my gum and it was uncomfortable. even well-fitting dentures let in food particles.

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>> lots of attention being paid of course to the presidential race and balance of power in the house and senate and dozens of other measures in states across the country that could have far reaching consequences. back with a look at just a few of them is kim strassel and steve moore and colin levy joins us as well. okay, steve, let's talk about california first, because that may be the second most important vote next week, which is a huge tax increase, raising the top income tax rate to 13.3% from 10.3, how is that going? >> i tell you this, the people in states like texas and nevada are hoping to have the tax increase because every rich person in the state is going to continue to move out. i do not think it's going to pass, i think the people of california is going to turn this down. jerry brown, the governor has been pushing this, saying we're going to have to rip through the schools and the police departments if we don't

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pass this. i do not think it's going to pass, if it does, paul, i think it could be the end of california as an economic dynamo, truly, the small businesses and the wealth producers of that state will move out if they put in place a 13% income tax. >> you know-- go ahead. >> california should look at what happened here in illinois. in 2011, little noi raised corporate taxes, raised income taxes, guess what? in the next two months, unemployment surged and businesses tried to flee the state. a real mess. >> paul: and choice seems to be if you're going to put any pressure on the politicians in sacramento to reform, a lot of businesses, jerry brown has been-- they've been chipping in, they think they're going down. and the middle class has been exiting california more than the rich. the hollywood guys and silicon valley folks can afford taxes,

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but the middle class employed by small businesses that end up moving to nevada, idaho, and elsewhere. so, colin, let's talk about michigan which you've been following and you've got the -- the battle over the collective bargaining, making collective bargaining a constitutional right in the state. and then there's a battle for the supreme court, too. are the unions going to win these two? >> you know, paul, a lot has changed in the past week and i don't think they're going to win it. it's looking tough, but right now about 52% of voters are saying they oppose the efforts to enshrine this propose significan proposition 2, the more people are learning, the more people are learning how ridiculous it is. and as for the michigan supreme court, this effort to get rid of two of the conservative justices on the court is drawing attention as well. part of get out the vote a way for unions to say, hey if we manage to get the collective

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bargaining thing through and we will want to have the court on our side as well. >> another couple of ballot tests where the unions, national unions are playing big are education initiatives and reform initiatives in idaho and washington and idaho in fact to repeal some education reform legislation that passed. why would the national education association put in millions of dollars from washington, to affect the schools in boise? >> okay, because this is turning into basically the mini wisconsin of this year. last year and collective bargaining fight. last year, the governor of idaho and his education chief passed one of the best education reforms that's ever happened, but what it does, it phases out teacher tenure and limits collective bargaining and institute a new merit bonus pay program and the national education association, they hate this and they're petrified that this could become a model for the rest of the country.

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they and the idaho education association, put in biggest in the state iowa to try to get down the approval of the rye forms. >> what about the tax initiatives in the the state of california on some of the ballots? i know that oregon has an initiative to phase out, eliminate its death tax. >> that's right, a number of those, no death tax in oregon, a couple of states that would, that would actually require a super majority to raise their tax rates, there's some proposition 13 property tax initiatives around the country, so, the taxpayers are, the march on these and by the way, there's also about 5 billion dollars worth of bond referendums on the ballot and we'll see whether taxpayers are in the mood to fund big government. >> and in washington, the two third state is on the ballot. kim, you're an oregonion in

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exile now, is that going to pass oregon or not? >> the estate tax? >> the repeal. >> it's weird, it may well. because what you have here in oregon is interesting. you've got a lot of people-- this is not a lot of money overall for the budget, but this estate tax hurts a lot of oregonions, and ranchers and farmers and they're land rich and the bank poor. >> we'll be watching them all. okay, we have to take one more break. when we come back, hits and misses of the week. hmm, it says here that cheerios helps lower cholesterol as part of a heart healthy diet. that's true. ...but you still have to go to the gym.

>>. >> paul: time for hits and misses of the week. colin first to you. >> this is hit for the chicago public school system. the teachers union went on strike and demanded a big pay raise and they got it. now, the illinois report card came out and said the expenses

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for educating each student is an all time high while test scores are completely flat. it's costing $20,000, 58% per student. >> pay up, you'll be doing it for a long time. >> a hit for the walt disney company for acquisition of george lucas studios. had i the luck to sit in the theater to see star wars. i knew then movies this changed forever. it had to be the same thing 1937 when they showed snow white. snow white meets sky walker june notice the sales just before the capital gains taxes. >> this dismiss for governor andrew cuomo who blamed on man made warming.

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essentially using a disaster to score political points. i think is pretty shameful. the only madmade disaster that he should concern himself is the economy in upspaitd stated new york. >> housing market could be helped. >> speaking of the hurricane you live in new jersey, you've been enduring without electricity for the whole week. any hits or must on the hurricane front for you, fat that account you were hit? >> not really. you see the horrible suffering on the jersey shore and staten island, fortunately my neck of the woods hasn't hit that kind of problem but a lot of power out. i want to give a hit to the people of new york adopted home state new jersey. >> paul: what grade do you give chris christie. like all politicians iouldn't look to them. i think it'