Harry Mitchell, David Schweikert rematch called a 'toss-up'

by Erin Kelly - Oct. 7, 2010 12:00 AMRepublic Washington Bureau

As a civics teacher for nearly 30 years, Rep. Harry Mitchell helped hundreds of Tempe High School students understand the American political system. Now, that same system is about to give the Democratic congressman the toughest race of his career.

The Nov. 2 congressional race, a rematch between the former Tempe mayor and Republican David Schweikert, is rated a "toss-up" by the nonpartisan "Cook Political Report" and "Rothenberg Political Report."

Mitchell and scores of moderate Democrats in swing districts throughout the nation are in danger of being swept out of office by Republicans as voters frustrated with the slow pace of economic recovery appear poised to strip Democrats of their House majority.

"I need your help," Mitchell, 70, told supporters and undecided voters at a recent event in Ahwatukee Foothills. "It's a tough year to be a Democrat."

It's especially tough in Arizona's 5th Congressional District, where registered Republicans outnumber Democrats, 143,198 to 104,781, with 116,623 unaffiliated, according to the Secretary of State's Office. There also is a smattering of registered Green and Libertarian voters.

Libertarian Nick Coons is the sole third-party candidate in the race.

In 2006, Mitchell defeated Republican Rep. J.D. Hayworth. Two years ago, he defeated Schweikert, a real-estate investor and former Maricopa County treasurer.

"No one thought I was going to beat J.D. four years ago," Mitchell said. "I've always been in the minority party, but I've always managed to attract support from independents and Republicans."

Schweikert, 48, said he has found a dramatic change as he talks to voters and hands out fliers.

"Two years ago, the voters were harsh," Schweikert said. "Some people said: 'I'm not ever voting for a Republican again. You seem like a nice guy, but get out of here.' Now, some of those same people are putting my campaign signs in their yards."

Fundraising efforts

A recent poll of 400 likely voters, conducted Sept. 26-27 for the Mitchell campaign by the firm of Bennett, Petts and Normington in Washington, D.C., had Mitchell with 43 percent of the vote to 40 percent for Schweikert. Coons received 6 percent. Eleven percent were undecided. The margin of error was plus or minus 5 percentage points.

The two campaigns also appear to be running close in their fundraising efforts.

Although the latest spending reports have not yet been posted by the Federal Election Commission, Mitchell's campaign said it will report third-quarter campaign contributions of about $489,500. It was the most successful fundraising quarter Mitchell has had. The campaign had about $296,000 in cash left at the end of September.

"The fact that nearly 2,200 supporters have invested in Harry's re-election this quarter reflects the energy and enthusiasm for the work Harry has done on behalf of Arizona," said Reed Adamson, Mitchell's campaign manager.

Schweikert said he outraised Mitchell and will report receiving more than $500,000 during the same three-month period.

"The people of Arizona understand where this government is taking us, and they've watched Congressman Mitchell and Nancy Pelosi squander what could have otherwise been a very strong recovery," said Oliver Schwab, Schweikert's campaign manager.

A centrist stance

As the candidates compete for independent voters, Mitchell is emphasizing his credentials as a fiscally conservative Blue Dog Democrat.

He touts his 80 percent score from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce for his pro-business voting record in 2009. On a scorecard that rarely favors Democrats, Mitchell's score was the highest among Arizona's eight-member House delegation of five Democrats and three Republicans.

His "party unity" score, a measure of how often he votes with Democrats, was 63 percent in 2009, compared with an average 91 percent for most Democrats, said the nonpartisan Congressional Quarterly. He voted with Democrats less often than other Arizona Democrats.

Mitchell said he has supported the bills he thought would do the most good and rejected those he saw as wasteful. He bucked party leadership to vote against the auto-industry bailout, financial-regulatory reform, a small-business bill opposed by Republicans and an energy bill to reduce global warming. He supported the health-care bill and the $787 billion American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, also known as the stimulus bill.

"I think I vote my district," said Mitchell, who has had a Republican co-sponsor for every bill he has introduced. "I'm just here to do the best I can for my district and my state."

Mitchell said he was thinking of his grandson, who has asthma, as he voted for the health-care bill.

"I now know he will never be denied insurance because of a pre-existing condition," Mitchell told Ahwatukee Foothills voters.

"I want somebody who can reach across the aisle to the other side," said Drummey, a real-estate agent. "I honestly believe most people are more moderate and want Congress to work together to get something done."

Independent enough?

Schweikert, who has focused his message largely on attacking government spending by Democrats, said Mitchell hasn't been independent enough on the votes that matter most.

Schweikert said health-care reform will result in a government-run system that will decrease the quality of care while increasing the federal debt. He also criticized the stimulus bill as wasteful.

"Everything we see is showing us that independents and Republicans are furious with him for his health-care and stimulus votes," Schweikert said.

Schweikert said he would push to reduce government regulations and taxes on businesses, eliminate capital gains and estate taxes, stop earmark spending, defend Arizona's new immigration law and open Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to oil and gas drilling.

Tim Goldenetz, 48, of Scottsdale, a self-described moderate Republican, said he is disillusioned by what he sees as a federal government that has spent billions but has not pulled enough people out of the recession.

"I've seen it in my family and friends who have lost their jobs or had their hours cut at work," said Goldenetz, a process engineer for Intel who plans to vote for Schweikert. "I know three people whose homes are in foreclosure. The economy doesn't seem to be getting better, and the Democrats in Congress have done more damage in the last year and a half with all their spending and taxes and regulations."

Schweikert said he doesn't believe Mitchell can overcome Republican momentum.

"The congressman gets credit for having served the community," Schweikert said. "It's not about Harry. Everyone knows he's a nice guy. It's about the policies he's supported."