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Sep 11, 2016

Tesla is all about autopilot and radar in firmware 8

After the fallout with Mobileye, more sensor fusion for the Model S and X EVs.

Jonathan M. Gitlin

Ron Amadeo

In a press conference held with little
advance notice, Tesla announced on Sunday that it will make more use of
the radar sensors fitted to its electric vehicles when it releases
firmware version 8 some time in the next two weeks. This is somewhat of a
volte-face for the EV maker—just over a year ago Elon Musk told Ars
that he considered optical cameras "sufficient for the task."

Radar and its discontents

All Teslas built since October 2014 include
radar sensors, which the carmaker says were only meant to be
supplementary to the primary camera system. However, in recent months Tesla has fallen out with optical sensor supplier Mobileye,
and this move answers our question as to whether the company would
develop its own sensors. "After a lot of analysis and getting some
upgraded drivers from the supplier [of the radar sensors] we now believe
we can combine that with fleet learning and almost entirely eliminate
false positives," he said.

The problem of radar false positives—and
therefore cars emergency braking for no reason—was previously high
enough that a Model S or Model X owner would have seen several unwanted
braking events a year, Musk explained. With the revised system he
believed that "most people shouldn't experience one within their
ownership of the car."

There's still no change to Musk's stance on
Lidar; he rejected the idea that future Tesla vehicles would use the
technology, telling Ars that
Lidar "doesn't penetrate occlusions like rain, fog, or snow." He added
that radar can bounce, unlike light, allowing the vehicle to see
underneath and ahead of a car in front of it. Using the entire fleet of
Tesla EVs on the road to perfect the use of radar in Autopilot appears
to be key; Musk said that fleet learning was necessary to geolocate any
false positive events so they wouldn't affect other drivers.

Musk spoke about the kinds of targets the
radar could detect, including "an alien spaceship" or "truck turning
across the road," the latter a reference to the fatal Model S crash earlier this year that has seen much scrutiny
focused on Tesla's Autopilot system. However Musk said that "large and
fluffy" objects could be more of a problem; large moose should be
detected but small deer, he told us, wouldn't. While this sounds
trivial, there are more than 1,000,000 moose, deer, and elk strikes by
cars in North America each year.

Musk did say that the improvements in firmware
8 would probably have saved Joshua Brown's life, and that with firmware
8 the Model S and Model X accident rate should be cut in half at least.
He stressed that Teslas are the safest vehicles on the road by quite
some margin.

More Autopilot modifications

Other changes coming to firmware 8 include
modifications to the alerts given to Autopilot users. Interestingly,
Musk revealed that it's the most experienced Autoplioters—like Joshua
Brown, a well-known Tesla enthusiast—who are responsible for the most
problems. From version 8, if three audio warnings are dismissed within
an hour, Autopilot will be disabled until the car is parked. "Autopilot
accidents far more likely for expert users; they get very comfortable
with it and repeatedly ignore the car's warnings," Musk said, describing
the way these drivers dismiss alerts as "a reflex action" and adding
that Tesla's data shows that some users dismiss three warnings a minute.

Predictions that Tesla might follow the rest
of the auto industry by restricting hands-free time to 15 seconds were
wide of the mark. Musk clarified the time limit on the call; at speeds
under 8mph on divided highways, Autopilot will effectively function
indefinitely. Under 45mph "the longest in theory is five minutes, but
actually there are hands-on-wheel requirements as soon as the car
detects lateral acceleration," he said. Above 45 mph the "hands on the
wheel" warning should go off after a minute if you don't have a car to
follow, and three minutes if you do have a car to follow, "because the
accuracy is greater," Musk said. He did address the "beta" label issue,
telling reporters that "the reason we call it a beta is to reduce
people's comfort level turning it on; it's not really a beta."

Other changes include better visual warnings
that precede audio warnings, and Autopilot will now take highway exits
if the driver uses the correct turn signal (or has a route set in
firmware 8.1), although this will initially only be available in the US.
The upgraded firmware should be released over the air to Tesla owners
in the next two weeks.