Solid Evidence of Subprime Spill-over

I know all of you have your favorite indicators and oscillators, convergences and divergences, etc, etc. And alot of you like to cipher through projections and such. But I have found rock-hard solid evidence that the subprime problems have already poured over the spillway.

I am sure I am not alone in receiving large daily quantities of un-solicited credit card offers in the mailbox. At times it seemed like they were chopping down a tree every week just for me. Well, over the last several weeks these have completely dried up, nada, zilch. I almost thought my mail must not be getting delivered. It isn't because I am subprime, my score is in the top 10%. This is contagion from subprime, and it is spreading.

This is going to hurt the consumer in a big way, argue what you will. Some of the smarter consumers were continuosly rolling debt from card to card to take advantage of introdutory rates to help manage their debts. Now that these offers are drying up, this is going to put further strain on the consumer and tighten up spending. And all of this is going to cause earnings guidances to lower, making the valuations some think are cheap, look more expensive.

I know some of you will argue this data, to me it isn't just a data set on a piece of paper, it's a real time casualty of credit tightening, not some bullshit doctored up number derived from our government that has told you the worst of housing is over for the last year and a half. And make no mistake that the larger piece of the "economic growth" of this latest bull market was purely driven by cheap credit and the consumer willing to take on debt to buy things they don't need.

I agree and they're all trying to cover their asses. I received an offer from Countrywide a couple weeks ago. They do hold my mortgage. They offered a card with 0% on balance transfers until 2009. Hell, I took'em up on it. Got a card with a nice big line of credit, but alas, some bullshit about not being able to do the transfer. Typical bait and switch. They're obviously hurting for money if they are pulling crap like that.

I know all of you have your favorite indicators and oscillators, convergences and divergences, etc, etc. And alot of you like to cipher through projections and such. But I have found rock-hard solid evidence that the subprime problems have already poured over the spillway.

I am sure I am not alone in receiving large daily quantities of un-solicited credit card offers in the mailbox. At times it seemed like they were chopping down a tree every week just for me. Well, over the last several weeks these have completely dried up, nada, zilch. I almost thought my mail must not be getting delivered. It isn't because I am subprime, my score is in the top 10%. This is contagion from subprime, and it is spreading.

This is going to hurt the consumer in a big way, argue what you will. Some of the smarter consumers were continuosly rolling debt from card to card to take advantage of introdutory rates to help manage their debts. Now that these offers are drying up, this is going to put further strain on the consumer and tighten up spending. And all of this is going to cause earnings guidances to lower, making the valuations some think are cheap, look more expensive.

I know some of you will argue this data, to me it isn't just a data set on a piece of paper, it's a real time casualty of credit tightening, not some bullshit doctored up number derived from our government that has told you the worst of housing is over for the last year and a half. And make no mistake that the larger piece of the "economic growth" of this latest bull market was purely driven by cheap credit and the consumer willing to take on debt to buy things they don't need.

keep in mind that with globalization the ameican consumer isn't as important anymore

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Last I checked, we still buy the majority of their shit, so I would say at this point that yes, the American consumer does play a pivotal role in emerging markets. We also provide many of their jobs through outsourcing.