September 13, 2012

Bullock edges Hill for Montana governor

Raleigh, N.C. – Democrats have a
slight edge in keeping control of the Montana governor’s mansion when the
term-limited Brian Schweitzer leaves office.
Current Attorney General Steve Bullock leads former at-large Congressman
Rick Hill by five points (44-39), with Libertarian Ron Vandevender and
independent Bill Coate each at 4% and 9% undecided. In PPP’s April pre-primary matchup between
the two major party candidates, they tied at 39%, with 21% still undecided.

Since Hill remains at 39%, clearly Bullock’s boost is not due to the minor
party candidates siphoning support from Hill, even though they do take slightly
more of the GOP vote than the Democratic vote.
Bullock’s increase in support is because he now leads by seven with
independents, versus a tie in April.

Two measures on this fall’s ballot lead by wide margins right now. An initiative establishing that corporations
are not people leads by 29 points (53-24), and one which would reform the
existing medical marijuana program leads by 17 (46-29). Both enjoy considerable support across the
partisan spectrum.

In a prospective 2014 Senate election, Schweitzer would outperform Max
Baucus versus a generic Republican opponent, but if Baucus did run again and
Schweitzer challenged him in a primary, Schweitzer would not beat the incumbent
by much. Schweitzer would top an unnamed
Republican by eight points (50-42), just a bit more than Baucus’ six-point edge
(48-42). In a primary, 40% prefer
Schweitzer to 36% in favor of renominating Baucus. That is down from a 48-37 Schweitzer
advantage in April.

Overall, Schweitzer remains one of the most popular governors in the
country, with 56% approving and only 35% disapproving of the progressive
Democrat who governs a red-leaning state.
That is up from 52-36 in April.
56% of independents and even 26% of Republicans like the work Schweitzer
is doing, up a tick from 53% and 24%.
Baucus is not quite so beloved, but his 45-47 approval spread is up from
42-46 in the previous poll.

PPP surveyed 656 likely Montana voters,
including 201 usual Democratic primary voters, from September 10th
to 11th. The margin of error for the overall survey is +/-3.8%, and
+/-6.9% for the Democratic primary portion.
This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political
organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.

Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.

Q4 In 2004, Montana voters approved I-148,creating a medical marijuana program forpatients with debilitating medical conditions.Senate Bill 423, passed by the 2011Legislature, repeals I-148 and enacts a newmedical marijuana program, which includes:permitting patients to grow marijuana ordesignate a provider; limiting each marijuanaprovider to three patients; prohibiting marijuanaproviders from accepting anything of value inexchange for services or products; grantinglocal governments authority to regulatemarijuana providers; establishing specificstandards for demonstrating chronic pain; andreviewing the practices of doctors who certifymarijuana use for 25 or more patients in a 12-month period. If SB 423 is affirmed by thevoters, there will be no fiscal impact becausethe legislature has funded the costs of itsimplementation. If SB 423 is rejected by thevoters, there may be a small savings to theState. If the election was today, would you votefor or against SB 423?For .................................................................. 46%Against............................................................ 29%Not sure .......................................................... 24%

Q5 Ballot initiative I-166 establishes a state policythat corporations are not entitled toconstitutional rights because they are nothuman beings, and charges Montana electedand appointed officials, state and federal, toimplement that policy. With this policy, thepeople of Montana establish that there shouldbe a level playing field in campaign spending,in part by prohibiting corporate campaigncontributions and expenditures and by limitingpolitical spending in elections. Further,Montana’s congressional delegation is chargedwith proposing a joint resolution offering anamendment to the United States Constitutionestablishing that corporations are not humanbeings entitled to constitutional rights. If theelection was today, would you vote for oragainst initiative 166?For .................................................................. 53%Against............................................................ 24%Not sure .......................................................... 23%

Q8 Generally speaking, if there was an election forthe Senate today, would you vote for DemocratMax Baucus or his Republican opponent?Max Baucus ........... .48%Republicanopponent.................42%Not sure ................. .10%

Q9 Generally speaking, if there was an election forthe Senate today, and the Democraticcandidate was Brian Schweitzer, would youvote for him or his Republican opponent?Brian Schweitzer .... .50%Republicanopponent.................42%Not sure ................. . 8%

Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.Woman ........................................................... 52%Man................................................................. 48%

Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,press 2. If you are an independent or identifywith another party, press 3.Democrat ........................................................ 33%Republican...................................................... 34%Independent/Other.......................................... 33%

Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you areolder than 65, press 4.18 to 29........................................................... 14%30 to 45........................................................... 30%46 to 65........................................................... 34%Older than 65.................................................. 22%

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