NCAAF Picks

College Football Betting: Toledo Will Cover Big Spread In MAC Game Vs. Ball State

I need to stick to previewing Mid-American Conference weekday football games! I'm 2-0 ATS on them this month and this Wednesday the game has Toledo hosting Ball State, with the Rockets as 20.5-point favorites on college football odds.

Cardinals Won't Be Bowling

Ball State (4-5, 1-4 MAC) was a 1-point home favorite for its home finale last Tuesday and the Cardinals lost 48-41, their third straight defeat and fifth in six games. Ball State led 21-0 late in the first quarter on a KeVonn Mabon 34-yard TD reception and 6-yard run and James Gilbert 3-yard run. EMU would then score 19 straight points before a Mabon 13-yard TD catch right before halftime made it 28-19.

Flash forward to late in the fourth quarter and Ball State went ahead 41-40 on a Riley Neal 1-yard TD run, although the 2-point conversion failed. However, Eastern Michigan rolled right down the field and won it on a 1-yard TD run and added a 2-point conversion. EMU's DaQuan Pace, on his 21st birthday, intercepted Neal's Hail Mary pass at the EMU 8-yard line on the final play of the game.

Neal was 30-of-50 passing for 393 yards and three touchdowns and two interceptions for Ball State, which turned it over five times, four in the second half. Mabon had a career-high 12 receptions for 149 yards while moving into second place on BSU's career receptions list. Gilbert, entering off five straight 100-yard rushing games, ran for 54 yards and a touchdown but missed the second with an injury.

The Cardinals had 542 yards but were just 2-for-13 on third down. Eastern had 622 yards and converted on 12 of 22 third downs. Five of Ball State’s six Mid-American Conference games this season have been decided by 10 points or less. The win got EMU bowl eligible for the first time since 1995. It's not looking like BSU will reach a bowl game and it's probably going to finish last in the MAC West.

Toledo (8-2, 5-1 MAC) was a 6-point favorite last Wednesday vs. Northern Illinois in a neutral-site game at Chicago's Guaranteed Rate Field, the new name of the White Sox's stadium, and the Rockets rallied for a 31-24 win to keep their MAC West Division title hopes alive.

NIU took a 7-0 lead late in the first quarter and led 14-3 at halftime. Toledo wouldn't take its first lead until a Michael Roberts 5-yard TD catch from Logan Woodside early in the fourth. The Huskies tied it at 24 on a chip-shot field goal with 4:31 left, but the Rockets won it on star tailback Kareem Hunt's 1-yard TD run with 1:15 left. It was Toledo's first win over Northern Illinois, the king of the MAC this decade, since 2009.

Woodside, who leads the nation with 37 TD passes, completed 23 of 33 passes for 286 yards. Two of his TD passes were to tight end Michael Roberts, who leads the team with 12 TD receptions. The school record is 14 by Lance Moore in 2014. Hunt rushed for 122 yards and now has 1,076 on the season for his second career 1,000-yard campaign. It was his 25th career 100-yard game, No. 2 in school history (Chester Taylor 27).

This is Toledo's final home game and thus Senior Day. Roberts and Hunt are both seniors. Should the Rockets win, it would set up a winner-take-all game for the MAC West title at ranked and unbeaten Western Michigan on Nov. 25.

The Rockets are 7-3 ATS on college football picks and 3-2 ATS at home. They have won two straight vs. Ball State by double digits and will again here.