Movies - The Oscars
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Wednesday January 14, 2015

My 2014 Oscar Nominations

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences announces its nominees for the 2014 Oscars tomorrow morning. Here are my choices. These are preferences, not guesses. Guesses are boring, but I give odds after each category. Plus a better resource at the end.

BEST PICTURE

“Birdman”

“Boyhood”

“The Drop”

“Fury”

“The Grand Budapest Hotel”

The first two are in. “Budapest” maybe. “Drop” and “Fury” have no shot even though up to 10 films can be nominated.

Tough category. Toughest? I didn't even include Michael Keaton for “Birdman,” the likely winner. Unless it's Redmayne. Of mine, only Redmayne is a sure thing.

BEST ACTRESS

Bérénice Bejo, “Le Passé”

Marion Cotillard, “Two Days, One Night”

Lisa Loven Kongsli, “Force Majeure”

Jenny Slate, “Obvious Child”

Reese Witherspoon, “Wild”

I don't know if I'm hearing nothing on “Le Passé” because it's considered a 2013 movie or because nobody liked it as much as I did. I think the former. Of the above, Witherspoon is the no-brainer, while Cotillard would get my vote. Caveat: I haven't seen either of the Julianne Moore movies, but she's the likely winner for a movie no one has seen.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Shia LeBeouf, “Fury”

Ed Norton, “Birdman”

Mark Ruffalo, “Foxcatcher”

J.K. Simmons, “Whiplash”

Matthias Schoenaerts, “The Drop”

Norton and Simmons are the likely nominees, Simmons the likely winner. It pains me to leave off Ethan Hawke's work for “Boyhood.” LeBeouf and Schoenaerts have gotten *zero* talk. Is it the consecutive vowels in their names? I think the Academy is vowelist. Thus spaketh Lundegaard.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Patricia Arquette, “Boyhood”

Laura Dern, “Wild”

Agata Kulesza, “Ida”

Rene Russo, “Nightcrawler”

Marisa Tomei, “Love Is Strange”

Arquette, yes, Dern and Russo maybe. Emma Stone will get nom'ed for “Birdman.” Probably Jessica Chastain for “A Most Violent Year.” Did you see her at the Golden Globes? She gets better-looking every year.

Would've had “Selma” in here but for the LBJ thing. “Birdman,” “Boyhood,” in. Everything else is up for grabs.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Damien Chazelle, “Whiplash”

James Gunn and Nicole Perlman, “Guardians of the Galaxy”

Nick Hornby, “Wild”

Dennis Lehane, “The Drop”

Gillian Robespierre, “Obvious Child”

“Whiplash” has a shot. Why, by the way, is Hornby getting no love? Talk about a tough adaptation. The book is mostly interior, something books do better than movies, and he made it work. Plus he's Nick Hornby.

BEST DOCUMENTARY

“CitizenFour”

“Jordorowsky’s Dune”

“Life Itself”

“The Unknown Known”

“Whitey: United States of America v. James G. Bulger”

It appears to be a battle between “CitizenFour” and “LifeItself,” with the former probably winning.

As you can see, I've only seen “Ida,” which I think is one of the best movies of the year. Missed “Force Majeure” at SIFF Uptown because it's December and time is crazy. Heard good things on “Leviathan.”

What's missing? “Deux jours, une nuit” from Belgium. I've heard “Winter Sleep” from Turkey is quite good. I assume “Kraftidioten” wasn't even offered up by Norway to the Academy.

Academy Winnows Best Documentary Feature to 15, Including 'CitizenFour' and 'Life Itself'

Our Roger wins best documentary feature?

I don't know if you know, but the Academy's documentary branch always sees fit to winnow the nonfiction possibilities down to 15 before arriving at the five documentary nominees, announced in January, from which they choose, of course, the one: best documentary feature.

Among the docs I've seen, I'd probably vote for “Life Itself.” Does it have a shot? Maybe. I don't believe in the make-up vote, but director Steve James was royally reamed when his doc “Hoop Dreams” wasn't even nominated in 1994—a travesty that Roger and Gene (among others) let the world know about. How delicious if Steve's doc on Roger made up for that?

Why We Can't Quit the Academy Quitting on 'Brokeback'

In a post on “Beckett,” which he calls “the most covert 'gay' movie ever released to mainstream America in the 20th Century,” Jeffrey Wells takes the Academy to task over ignoring the most overt gay love story Hollywood has produced:

At this exact time nine years ago “Brokeback Mountain” was building a head of Oscar steam like no other Best Picture contender. Or so it seemed to me and mine. It had premiered in Telluride, Venice and Toronto in September 2005 but wouldn’t open commercially until early December, but everyone knew. It was one of the saddest love stories ever made, one that might have been even more moving for being about closeted gay guys. Everybody knew the truth of what it was saying, which was more or less “If you’ve got something really good going with someone, don’t blow it…don’t hide your feelings, don’t be afraid. Man up.”

It was a love fest, a blossoming. Critical praise, critics awards, big box-office, etc. Around which the whole country, in a sense, seemed to be holding hands and coming together.

And then it all started to go wrong. Discussions I had during that period (late ’05 and early ’06) suggested that older Academy geezers were not emotionally comfortable with gay sheepherders, and that they had written it off early on. The late Tony Curtis became the poster boy for this sentiment, famously declaring that “Howard Hughes and John Wayne” wouldn’t like it.” And then Jack Nicholson opened the envelope … thud. I’ll never get over that. Never.