Arizona Sen. John McCain is tied 30 - 30 percent with former New York City Mayor Rudolph
Giuliani among New York State likely Republican presidential primary voters, according to a
Quinnipiac University poll released today. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney gets 9
percent, with 8 percent each for former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson and former Arkansas Gov.
Mike Huckabee.

Sen. Hillary Clinton has 51 percent of likely Democratic primary voters, with 25 percent for
Illinois Sen. Barack Obama and 11 percent for former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards.

This is the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll's first survey in this
election cycle of New York's likely voters, a more select group than the wider range of registered
voters surveyed in prior polls.

"If he can't make it here, he can't make it anywhere. What happens to Mayor Giuliani's
presidential prospects if he doesn't score a resounding victory in his native New York?" asked
Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"While he's concentrating on the January 29 Florida presidential primary, Giuliani is out of
sight and maybe out of mind in New York."

"If Giuliani wins big in Florida, maybe that catapults him to a big win the following week
in New York and other Super Tuesday states. But a January 14 Quinnipiac University poll in
Florida showed a four-way Republican horse race," Carroll added.

"On the Democratic side, Sen. Clinton has a resounding 2 - 1 lead in the state that sent her
to the Senate," Carroll added.

"But watch out for the Black vote. When one of 'their own' is on the ballot, such as
Catholics for Kennedy in 1960 or Latinos for Ferrer in 2005, a group's votes might come in higher
than pre-election polls indicate.

"And once we know who the nominees are, and whether Mayor Michael Bloomberg is
going to make it a three-way race, we can start thinking about November."

A total of 71 percent of Giuliani's Republican backers say they are "not too likely" or "not
likely at all" to change their minds, compared to 46 percent of McCain supporters.

Among Democrats, 74 percent of Clinton supporters and 62 percent of Obama backers say
they are not likely to change their minds.

"One bright spot for Mayor Giuliani is the depth of commitment among his supporters. A
lot of McCain backers could swing back to Giuliani in the next two weeks," Carroll said.

From January 14 - 21, Quinnipiac University surveyed 331 New York State likely
Republican primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 5.4 percent, and 544 likely Democratic
primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percent.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public
opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and
nationwide as a public service and for research.
For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x271.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.

1.(Registered Dems + Leaners)If the 2008 Democratic primary for President were
being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton, John Edwards,
Mike Gravel, Dennis Kucinich, and Barack Obama, for whom would you vote?
(If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Clinton, Edwards, Gravel,
Kucinich, or Obama? This table includes "Leaners".

2.(Registered Reps + Leaners) If the 2008 Republican primary for President were
being held today and the candidates were Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, Duncan
Hunter, John McCain, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and Fred Thompson, for whom would
you vote? (If undecided q2) As of today, do you lean more toward Giuliani,
Huckabee, Hunter, McCain, Paul, Romney, or Thompson? This table includes "Leaners".