USDA: Rice Outlook 2017

The U.S. 2017/18 U.S. rice crop forecast was lowered 6.7 million cwt to 179.7 million cwt this month, 20 percent below a year earlier. The downward revision is the result of a lower NASS-reported harvested area estimate that incorporated FSA certified acreage. Beginning stocks were increased fractionally. These revisions lowered the total U.S. supply forecast 6.6 million cwt to 250.0 million cwt. Total domestic and residual use was lowered 2.5 million cwt to 115.0 million cwt. U.S. exports were lowered 3.0 million cwt to 106.0 million cwt. These supply and use revisions resulted in a 1.1-million cwt reduction in the ending stocks forecast to 29.0 million cwt, a 37-percent decline from 2016/17. U.S. season-average farm prices for 2017/18 were raised this month for both classes of rice and for both producing regions.

In the global market, 2017/18 production forecasts were raised for India, Burma, and Peru, but lowered for China, Bangladesh, and the United States. The 2017/18 global consumption forecast was raised 1.1 million tons to 480.2 million tons. With global production exceeding consumption in 2017/18, global ending stocks are projected to increase 3 percent year-to-year to 123.5 million tons, up 0.6 million tons from the previous forecast and the highest since 2001/02. Thailand’s price quotes for regular milled rice changed little over the past month, while prices for its premium jasmine rice increased 27 percent. U.S. long-grain and medium- and short-grain milled rice prices increased further.

The U.S. 2017/18 U.S. rice crop forecast was lowered 6.7 million cwt to 179.7 million cwt this month, 20 percent below a year earlier. The downward revision is the result of a lower NASS-reported harvested area estimate that incorporated FSA certified acreage. Beginning stocks were increased fractionally. These revisions lowered the total U.S. supply forecast 6.6 million cwt to 250.0 million cwt. Total domestic and residual use was lowered 2.5 million cwt to 115.0 million cwt. U.S. exports were lowered 3.0 million cwt to 106.0 million cwt. These supply and use revisions resulted in a 1.1-million cwt reduction in the ending stocks forecast to 29.0 million cwt, a 37-percent decline from 2016/17. U.S. season-average farm prices for 2017/18 were raised this month for both classes of rice and for both producing regions.

In the global market, 2017/18 production forecasts were raised for India, Burma, and Peru, but lowered for China, Bangladesh, and the United States. The 2017/18 global consumption forecast was raised 1.1 million tons to 480.2 million tons. With global production exceeding consumption in 2017/18, global ending stocks are projected to increase 3 percent year-to-year to 123.5 million tons, up 0.6 million tons from the previous forecast and the highest since 2001/02. Thailand’s price quotes for regular milled rice changed little over the past month, while prices for its premium jasmine rice increased 27 percent. U.S. long-grain and medium- and short-grain milled rice prices increased further.