Gallup Daily: Obama 49%, Clinton 45%

McCain has slight edge over both Democrats

PRINCETON, NJ -- The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update shows a closer Democratic nomination race than has been the case in recent days, with 49% of Democratic voters nationwide saying they are most likely to support Barack Obama for the party's presidential nomination and 45% choosing Hillary Clinton.

Obama enjoyed a statistically significant lead in the prior four Gallup Poll Daily election tracking releases, covering March 25-27 through March 28-30 polling. His lead grew as large as 10 percentage points. Today's three-day rolling average, based on March 29-31 polling, shows an improvement for Clinton, and echoes the general pattern that has been observed in tracking since Super Tuesday, with neither candidate able to sustain a significant lead in preferences. Obama's four-day run with a significant lead was the longest lead during this time span. (To view the complete trend since Jan. 3, 2008, click here.)

The latest update on general election preferences shows Republican John McCain with a 2-point advantage over both Democrats among registered voters -- 46% to 44% versus Obama and 47% to 45% versus Clinton. McCain has held at least a slight edge in every tracking release since mid-March, shortly after he clinched the nomination. -- Jeff Jones

Survey Methods

Gallup is interviewing no fewer than 1,000 U.S. adults nationwide each day during 2008.

The general election results are based on combined data from March 27-31, 2008. For results based on this sample of 4,409 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.

The Democratic nomination results are based on combined data from March 29-31, 2008. For results based on this sample of 1,288 Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

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A majority of Democrats (59%) and Republicans (64%) believe the Democrats’ prospects of beating John McCain in November are better if Barack Obama rather than Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee.

“There is a cheerier scenario for the Democrats. The animosity could “heal” once the Democratic nominee is determined. Democrats’ voting patterns could spring back to more normal parameters (i.e., no more than about 10% crossover voting).”