nascarSeptember 17, 2016 10:00am EDTSeptember 17, 2016 10:00am EDTDrivers have won at Chicagoland and gone on to win the Chase title. They've also done poorly here and bounced back. But they definitely have to be on your toes to prevent disaster in the first postseason race.

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Chicagoland Speedway isn't a particularly intimidating track.

The first stop in the Chase for the Sprint Cup doesn't have the speed of Talladega, which has produced some frightening races over the years. But the 1.5-mile track is still a fast one (fastest qualifying speed is 189.414 mph by Joey Logano in 2013).

Chicagoland also doesn't have the beating and banging that goes on at places like Martinsville and it's not a track where drivers can be officially eliminated (Dover, Talladega and Phoenix share that honor). However, it is a track where Chase dreams can end in a hurry if you don't play your cards right.

As the 10-race postseason begins for the 16 drivers who made the Chase, the plan is simple: Win the race if you can (because that automatically puts you in the next round), race well and please don't wreck.

In reality, winning Sunday's race is just one step toward grabbing the Sprint Cup title. But early on, it seemed winning at Chicagoland was a precursor to actually winning the title. Tony Stewart (2011) and Brad Keselowski (2012) did it the first two years of the Chase. However, that theory has adjusted since with race winners Matt Kenseth (2013), Keselowski (2014) and Denny Hamlin (2015) falling short of a Chase title.

“I want to win another championship,” Keselowski said. “I think we are capable of winning another championship. I have had a handful of years now to reflect back on it and I don’t know if I feel like the drive that deserves to win the championship always wins the championship. I have kind of taken some solace in that.

“I felt like Jimmie (Johnson) and I were probably equal in 2012 and I won it. I felt I deserved to win it in 2014 and I didn’t. In my heart I feel good about where I am at and where our team is and the things that we have done.”

Since the Chase began at Chicago in 2011, Chicagoland has crushed the dreams of some drivers hoping to come out on top. Denny Hamlin's problems led him to finish three laps down and in 31st in the 2011. He finished ninth in the Chase that year. In 2012, Jeff Gordon crashed and finished 35th in the Chicagoland race. He wound up 10th in the Chase.

Other Chase drivers have had a hard time rebounding, too. Joey Logano blew an engine in 2013 and was 37th. Dale Earnhardt Jr. also had engine issues and was 35th. Logano finished eighth in the Chase while Earnhardt was fifth. Engine problems in 2014 also spelled doom for Aric Almirola, who finished 41st and never recovered, placing 16th in the Chase.

The exception is last season, when Kevin Harvick had an accident after contact with Jimmie Johnson on Lap 139 and finished next to last. It led to a shoving match between Johnson and the 2014 champion and instantly put Harvick in a must-win situation.

He recovered with a win at Dover in an elimination race two weeks later and racked up three second-place finishes and a third to finish runner-up to Kyle Busch in the Chase.

“Our main focus this year is really just to focus on us,” Harvick said. “I think our speed has been good. I think our team has done a good job of being competitive at all the different styles of racetracks.

“Really for us, that's been one of the our goals headed into the Chase, is to focus on our team, focus on our garage, our team, the things that we're doing, just for the fact that I feel like the speed has been there, the competitiveness has been there with our group. If we do our jobs from top to bottom, hopefully that gets us somewhere close to where we need to be.”

1Tony Stewart

Last week at Richmond: Crashed with Ryan Newman and others on Lap 364, finished 33rd in Federated Auto Parts 400

Last year’s race at Chicagoland: Finished 25th

tonyThree wins, eight top fives and 10 top 10s in 14 career races

This is his first appearance in the Chase since 2012. As the winningest driver at the track, he'd love nothing more than to add to that buffer between him, Brad Keselowski and Kevin Harvick (they have two wins each). He knows the stakes, not only about the Chase but this being his final season of racing. The fact that he has two sub-par performances in his last races there doesn't bode well. The fact he has a sixth-place finish in 2012 and won the race in 2011 makes you think he'll go out with a bang (maybe literally) to try and win at this track and make a quick Chase statement.

2Brad Keselowski

Overall at Chicagoland: Two wins, three top fives and five top 10s in seven career races

Kyle Busch said if anyone can end the Toyota dominance it's this guy. He's certainly got momentum on his side both going into the Chase and at Chicagoland. If he wins this opening-round race, watch out. With the success he's had here in the past, there's a better-than-average chance of that.

His Chase hopes didn't end at Chicagoland last year, but they came dangerously close. He won at the right time then used consistency to ride into Homestead with the chance to win the title. While his results have been consistent, his pit crew has been anything but. Some changes seemed to help at Richmond. Now we'll see who keeps that consistent streak going the longest, the team or the driver.

4Denny Hamlin

Overall at Chicagoland: One win, two top fives and four top 10s in 10 career races

He got such a lift from winning last year's race, moving past Jeff Gordon and leading the final five laps for the win. He carried that momentum and a second-place showing in the standings to Talladega and watched his chances go down the drains with a wreck. The win last week at Richmond could provide the same kind of spark he needs at a track where he's had his ups and downs.

5Kyle Busch

Overall at Chicagoland: One win, four top fives and six top 10s in 11 career races

He led the most laps in last year's race but didn't have the finish he would have liked. That happened more than once in last year's Chase but he never wavered in winning the title. Surely, he'd like to win Sunday, but he knows it's not the end of the world if he doesn't.

6Kyle Larson

Overall at Chicagoland: No wins, one top five and two top 10s in two career races

Larson has been on quite an impressive streak since winning at Michigan three weeks ago with two runner-up finishes, leading laps and generally being in the mix up front. He did the same thing in last season's race, racing hard with the Chase drivers and ending up with a pretty good performance. If he can do that again, his first-ever Chase race may be another one to remember.

7Joey Logano

Overall at Chicagoland: No wins, one top five and three top 10s in seven career races

After a luke-warm start to his career at Chicagoland, he's bounced back with three top-10 finishes in the past four races. We mentioned earlier how the 2013 race didn't go well for him but he won the pole for the race and led 32 laps before his misfortune. Plus, like teammate Brad Keselowski, he does relatively well at 1.5-mile tracks.

8Martin Truex Jr.

Overall at Chicagoland: No wins, no top fives and two top 10s in 10 career races

He looked good at times in leading the third most laps in last year's race before fading out of the top 10. Still, it was a good sign as he was able to keep the momentum he had during the season going at the other Chase tracks all the way to Homestead. So, despite his struggles otherwise at the track, last year may prove not to have been a fluke.

9Jimmie Johnson

Overall at Chicagoland: No wins, seven top fives and 10 top 10s in 14 career races

How has he not won here? He has the best average finish (9.3) and leads the most laps (577). But it's just his sixth best career track because he doesn't have a win there. His has 27 career wins at his top five tracks (Fontana, Martinsville, Phoenix, Fort Worth and Kansas). But he's struggled in the second half of the season and enters the Chase with the fewest wins (two) since 2011 (one), which is when his stretch of five straight Cup titles ended (but he did win a Chase race that season).

10Kurt Busch

Overall at Chicagoland: No wins, two top fives and nine top 10s in 15 career races

He's another driver who's never won there but has had some good performances, including last year, which was his third straight top-10 finish and fourth in the past five races. So unless his day ends early, he should also be right in the mix.

11Our race and Chase picks

Ray Slover, SN writer

Race pick

Denny Hamlin won last year in the first Chase race, with Carl Edwards second. Add in Matt Kenseth in fifth, and Joe Gibbs Racing had three of the best finishes. Should we expect anything different at Joliet on Sunday?

Just a different winner. As good has Hamlin is now, as well as he finished last year, he won't win again. It's Edwards' turn.

Chase final four and champion

It's not unreasonable to think all four cars running for the Sprint Cup on Nov. 20 at Homestead-Miami will be Toyotas, or that all four will carry the Joe Gibbs Racing banner. That team, along with ally Martin Truex Jr., topped the season to date. But things tend to go sideways in the Chase. Just ask Matt Kenseth and Joey Logano.

Kyle Busch should make it back to the final four. Brad Keselowski also should be there. The top Chevy will be driven by Kevin Harvick. Those are, of course, the obvious selections. So for No. 4, here's the twist. Kurt Busch has been consistent, and Stewart-Haas Racing wants to send Tony Stewart out a winner. An alternate? Martin Truex Jr., a popular pick to shake up the Carolina-based racing establishment. For the championship, this, of course, is a wild guess.

Anything can and will happen en route to Homestead-Miami, but given the four/five suggestions we'll say the winner will be Keselowski.

Jeff Owens, deputy editor-operations, SN writer

Race pick

Brad Keselowski has won two of the last four races at Chicagoland and has two wins this year on 1.5-mile tracks. He gets it done again to take the early lead in the Chase and advance to the second round.

Chase final four and winner

On paper, there are really only about five or six drivers who could realistically win this year’s championship, but we all know that under the new rules, it doesn’t really work that way. One bad race at the wrong time can ruin a team’s chances and shake up the field. Still, the regular season and recent performance does matter. The trends this season will eliminate three top contenders — Kyle Busch because it’s just too hard to win two in a row, and Joey Logano and Jimmie Johnson because they have been up and down and just not quite good enough. The Final Four: Brad Keselowski, Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr.

The Champion: Hamlin. He’s come close before — he blew a golden opportunity in 2010 — and made the finals two years ago. He enters the Chase as hot as any driver with eight straight top-10s, including two wins. He’s clicking with new crew chief Mike Wheeler and has won on three different type tracks. He’s been through the wars, endured a lot of disappointments and is experienced enough to know what it takes. Hamlin finally gets it done, winning his first Cup championship.

Rea White, SN writer

Race winner

Kevin Harvick is hungering to get back to victory lane after coming close in several recent races. Since his win at Bristol, Harvick has finished fifth, second and fifth, leading 247 laps combined in the races at Michigan and Darlington. He’s hoping to avoid a setback like the 42nd-place finish that hampered him in the opening race to the Chase last season, and to take advantage of having a couple of changes on his pit crew. Look for Harvick to be the first to claim a spot in the Chase’s second round with a win this Sunday.

Chase final four and champion

This should be a heavily contested Chase for the Sprint Cup, with several drivers who have come close to winning the title battling it out. Looking over the season, it's hard to count out the Toyota drivers. Kyle Busch and his teammate Carl Edwards should make a run into the final race. Harvick and Joey Logano should join them in that final push. But as Edwards and Logano make a solid run at their first title, it will be a past champion who snares the title this time. Look for Harvick to take the trophy when the checkered flag waves at Homestead.

Joe Rodgers, SN writer

Race winner

Joe Gibbs Racing has the most wins at Chicago in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series and I think the trend continues with veteran Matt Kenseth, who is one of only three drivers to compete in all 15 Cup events at Chicagoland Speedway. Kenseth owns the third-highest drivers rating at Chicagoland and has one win with two runner-up and seven top-10 finishes to go along with a 11.3 average finish.

Chase final four and winner

While his teammate Joey Logano was the hottest driver in the Chase last season before getting taken out at Martinsville, my choice for the Chase is his teammate Brad Keselowski. The No. 2 Penske driver enters the Chase with momentum, boasting five top-three finishes, including two wins, over his last 10 starts. He has a 12-point cushion for the Round of 16 then enters the Round of 12 with two of his better tracks — Kansas and Talladega.

If Keselowski can get through the Round of 8 at three tracks he's never won at: Martinsville, Texas and Phoenix, I like his chances to be the highest finisher at Homestead, a track Keselowski has a 4.0 average finish at the past three races.

Jason O. Boyd, contributing NASCAR writer

Race winner

Brad Keselowski has torn up this track since 2011, when the track became the first stop in the Chase. He certainly loves those 1.5-mile tracks and with the success he's had lately, there's no real reason to go against him on Sunday as he makes the first big noise in the Chase.

Chase final four and winner

I got this right last year when I chose Kyle Busch to prevail and win the 2015 Chase. So, no pressure. To win the title, you need the consistency of a guy like Kevin Harvick, who we mentioned came from way back to make the final four last season. You also need the talents of a guy when it comes to 1.5-mile tracks. Keselowski is definitely your guy. Then, for good measure, let's take a driver who can get hot at the right time and defy the odds like Martin Truex Jr. did last season. Only, let's put Kyle Larson there.

Take Harvick, Keselowski and Larson and then throw in the defending champion – and the guy I've got to win the Chase in 2016 – Kyle Busch. He showed he could do it and turned it up another notch in the Chase last year. The only thing he didn't do was win a race until he took the checkered flag and title at Homestead. He'll likely need more than one win to repeat but won't have to go on a tear like Joey Logano did in winning three straight Chase races before Matt Kenseth ended his dream.

Stay up front, win if you can and please, don't wreck. I'd like to go 2-for-2 in Chase picks, Kyle. No pressure.

Next Up:NASCAR at Chicagoland: Five things to know about the first race of the Chase