I love Trey's game and I'm really glad he plays for UMich, but I don't see either of those comparisons.

* CP3 is pretty far ahead of Trey in athleticism.

* Derrick Rose is 6'4" _and_ athletic (though maybe not in the same way as CP3).

I wouldn't be surprised if Trey wound up starting for someone for a few years (especially considering the way the game is going in the NBA), but he looks like more of a rotation guy at the moment. When I look at him, I see a guy who, in some areas, has just enough ability to stand out in college.

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My money is with GRIII. Pretty high ceiling, pretty good range of skills.

I'd also expect to see McGary land somewhere for at least a few years.

THJ? I think he has a pretty high ceiling, too, but for some reason I don't have the same level of confidence with him as I do with GRIII.

Same re Bulls fan, and comparison to DRose being wrong. Also, the idea that DRose is 6'4 is incorrect. He is usually listed at 6'3, but he's probably 6'2. He's got a thicker frame/broader shoulders than Trey/CP3.

I'm with you on GRIII for the reasons you said plus, above all, athleticism. He really looks like a lottery pick to me after a season of being Michigan's brightest star (post-Burke, post-Hardaway). Hopefully he sticks around for that year.

First, can I just say how fucking cool it is that we can have this thread.

As for the actual question, the safe bet for me is GRIII. He has a great shot already, good ball handling, and crazy athleticism. He already looks like an NBA player and with a couple more years of good coaching I'd honestly say his floor is about as high as any college player's floor can be. I doubt he does much worse than start for an NBA team. But if I had to guess who's most likely to be a star I have to go with Trey. He looks like Chris Paul in a lot of ways, from ball handling to distribution to shot taking and smart play, he has all the skills to make it big time in the NBA. There's always a chance that with his height those skills just don't translate, but if he does succeed he's going to do it big. Hardaway will also be a good player but until I see some better ball handling (which he just seems to be naturally not great at) I doubt he'll be a star. McGary should make it as a good 6th man somewhere once he goes through a couple more years of college conditioning & coaching. I also wouldn't be shocked to see LeVert make it in some capacity down the road.

I really don't see McGary's game translating well to the NBA. He turns 21 in May or June, so even though he is in his first year of college he is behind, as most kids his age have been in college for 2-3 years. I think he makes an NBA roster at some point, but is pretty much a nonfactor.

GRIII has sky high potential as you can't teach athleticism like his, and would be my pick as most likely to suceed in the NBA.

He has pretty legit size for an NBA 4, and even though he's old for a freshman, this is probably his first year in a really advanced strength program, so I imagine his body still has plenty of developing to do. Also, he shows really good instincts with things like outlet passing, he has a great motor, and he has great per-minute rebounding numbers. I'd be surprised if he was ever an all star, but I wouldn't be shocked at all to seem him stick in the league for a while.

For me, that's the ceiling for McGary, and it would mean a productive NBA career if he got anywhere close to it. Active and tireless (that part needs work obviously) big man with a huge rebounding radius, good at defending the screener on a pick and roll because he can hedge effectively and still get himself back into the play, doesn't slow down your running game. Any scoring you get out of that guy is a bonus.

Noah made enormous strides from his freshman to his sophomore year; McGary's in between those two levels (he's way ahead of what I remember of Noah as a frosh, which isn't that much because he didn't get a lot of playing time); he's also seven months older than Noah was so he's in between in age as well.

Any FC Barcelona fans out there that can compare him to Varejao at the same age?

I'm sure there are similar players that didn't develop but I can't seem to think of one right now.

Not endorsing that it matters/helps but owners do seem to like keeping at least one around, and high energy big man off the bench is as good a spot as any for one. If Mark Madsen can stay on an NBA roster for 9 seasons, McGary has a chance to make a lot of money playing just a little bit of basketball.

Burke is the safe pick. GR3 has the highest ceiling and he could very well be the best howeva Burke has such a great feel for the game. I don't think he'll get to Chris Paul's elite level but that's the guy he plays like.

His ability to stop and then start so quickly and his overall craftiness with the ball is why I see that comparison. Burke also has a great instinct to make the "right" play which is evidenced by his ridiculous A/TO ratio.

Tough question considering 4 of the possible NBA players are only TRUE freshman. The potential when these guys when they are are 26-28 years old is hard to read. I think Stauskas could have a great career if he continues to develop other parts of his game. Shot-makers are always in demand.

That said, Burke will almost certainly be a starting point guard in the NBA for years barring injury. THJ has shown me enough this year both athletically and with the maturity of his game to make me think he has a very solid NBA career as well. GR3 has SO much room to grow his game; I think his ceiling is the highest. McGary could certainly make an NBA roster at some point as well. Levert is a total wildcard.

Depending on the definition of best I think you could justify anyone in the group of Burke, Robinson, Hardaway or Stauskas. I'll take Stauskas for a change of pace.

He's 6"6 and a deadly shooter. Kyle Korver has played 10+ years in the league and had a great career by most standards. I think Stauskas is showing a sneaky ability to get to the rim and is an above average passer and ballhandler. I think his elite skill (shooting) makes him stick around, and his potential elsewhere can make him a solid starter on a playoff type team.

Given his ability to create off the dribble, size, and the likely defensive struggles he's going to have in the NBA, I think a decent player comparison for Stauskas might actually be Jamal Crawford. Crawford's a good bit quicker, but I think Stauskas might be able to play a similar role as a designated scorer off the bench.

Bench Production wise I would agree, But they have 2 totally different games. Crawford may have the best handles in the NBA and can create his own shot at will. Nik is more of a pure shooter than J Crossover.

I agree with you on GRIII. He seems to be the most well rounded player on the roster. I hope he sticks around a few years so we can see what he is capable of offensively when he's the first or second option every time down the floor.

They're all somewhat flawed from an NBA standpoint. (EDIT: I mean that in that they're all unlikely to become genuine NBA superstars)

Burke - Size is somewhat of an issue, and defesively he leaves a good bit to be desired. On the offensive end, though he does a good job of running an offense, he isn't the most creative passer you'll ever see. I expect him to be a solid starter, but I don't really see him being a star on the NBA level. I'd say it's a whole lot more likely that he ends up being a Mike Conley caliber player than he ends up being Chris Paul.

Robinson - Doesn't handle the ball especially well, wouldn't expect him to be a guy who ever really creates for himself. I don't know how much room for improvement he has in that regard (ball handling is one of those things that's REALLY hard to greatly improve). How good he is in the NBA will largely hinge on how much he improves his jumpshot. He's a solid set shooter from three, but his jumpshot in general is pretty average. He's not a guy who's going to hit jumpers off screens, or pull up for a contested mid range jumper off the dribble. I could very well see a Gerald Wallace type career, though Robinson isn't that caliber of shot blocker.

McGary - He's big, he's mobile, and he has a great motor. There will always be room in the NBA for guys like that. But he's not going to be a shot blocker/defensive game changer on the next level, and he isn't going to create for himself on offense. He really needs to work on developing a reliable mid range jumper.

Hardaway - Skill set wise, he has pretty much everything you want from an NBA wing. Solid size, he can shoot off screens, off the dribble, or while set. Solid finisher. Handles the ball decently, rebounds, passes. The problem for him is that he doesn't do anything exceptionally well, and unless you're a superstar, it's hard to stick in the NBA if you don't have a specialized skill. If he improves his jumpshot he'll stick.

Stauskas - For the same reason Hardaway might struggle to stick on the next level, I think Stauskas makes it. His shooting combined with solid size and a pretty well polished offensive game makes it likely he finds a role somewhere. Defense will be a big question mark of course, but if he can consistently shoot 40%+ from 3 in the NBA he'll find a home.

These are all 19-21 year old kids though, so of course none of them are finished products. A lot of how they fare on the NBA level will have to deal with the situations they're drafted in, the coaching the receive, and how their development is directed.

THJ will not have a meaningful NBA career. His lack of handle will not translate at all with the heavy reliance on iso offense. The only way I see him contributing is on a team like the Spurs where he can focus on rebounding and hitting open shots but in the NBA, a two guard should be able to create for himself.

It is GRIII. He reminds me a lot of Michael Kidd Gilcrest from Kentucky last season. He is someone who is absolutely special with great athleticism that is sacrificing some numbers he could probably get so the team is the best they can possibly be. I think he sticks around next season and is an absolute superstar.

Robinson for sure. He still needs a lot of work, but when he gets drafted it's probably going to be in the top 10(as long as he stays another year.. Right now he's living under Burke's shadow) and the team that gets him will give him every chance to succeed.

I'm a little bearish on Burke's stock.... He's definitely not his listed height, and with players like that any little thing can hurt their stock. The good thing is that other tiny guards in the league have carved a niche for him. If he turns out to be as good as some are projecting his ceiling is probably Ty Lawson and his floor is probably JJ Barea or D.J. Augustin.