2012 Fantasy Football Week 5 Preview: Packers at Colts

Green Bay: Much to the relief of fantasy owners everywhere, Aaron Rodgers finally put up the kind of numbers that were expected of the consensus first QB taken in fantasy drafts. Rodgers threw for over 300 yards and accounted for 4 touchdowns, which was much more 2011-like. Now he gets a Colts defense that ranks right in the middle of the pack for passing defense, but has a secondary that’s banged up. This is exactly the type of matchup that Rodgers and his receivers should be able to exploit with great effectiveness.

Greg Jennings’ groin is becoming a major worry, and not for the same reason that Antonio Cromartie’s groin is a major worry… Jennings’ is actually injury related and affects fantasy football. The question is, who will benefit from Jennings being out this week and possibly out longer with the lingering injury? This week, I’m hedging towards James Jones having a good game as he continues to build a rapport with Rodgers, and Jordy Nelson ending up with his usual fairly quiet road outing. Randall Cobb could also factor into the short passing game as the hot route and on bubble screens, especially since the Colts are rather fond of blitzing.

The Colts are very weak against the run, ranking only 25th in yards allowed. With this being a road game, look for the Packers to try to take advantage of this, especially if they get the crowd out of the game by jumping ahead early. Cedric Benson should approach 100 total yards in this one and has a good chance of getting a score.

Indianapolis: Coming off the bye week one thing is apparent; Andrew Luck is going to throw for a lot of yards as a rookie. So far this year, Luck is averaging over 300 total yards per game and is good for at least one if not two TDs per game. The Packers are much better this year against the pass, ranking in the top 10 for pass defense. The number might be a little skewed though, as they’ve faced the pass-deficient Seahawks and the conservative 49ers so far this year. Last week, Drew Brees tore that passing defense apart at Lambeau; visiting a Colts team that has been pretty good with the pass means that Luck has a good chance of being closer to Drew Brees than Russell Wilson/Alex Smith in terms of passing success.

So far in this young season, Luck has really latched on to Reggie Wayne as his #1 target. Wayne is averaging better than 10 targets a game, proving that he still has it. The other receivers have been varied in their success, showing that outside of Wayne, Luck likes to spread the ball around to whoever happens to be open. In Week 2 it was Donnie Avery getting the love, in Week 3 it was fellow rookie T.Y. Hilton. That inconsistency and a fairly tough Packers secondary makes any other receivers a middle of the road start at best.

Then there’s the Colts running game, which looks like an afterthought considering Luck has to spend so much time throwing the ball to catch up. Brown has been good for around 50 yards per game and hasn’t caught a pass since Week 1, as it appears that the one group Luck has no interest in throwing to is his running backs.