BTCUSD Could Retest 2018’s Low

The first time we saw a bear beating the hell out of somebody was in the Revenant. Then, it happened in February when bears attack knocked Bitcoin down from the $19,000-highs to the early $6,000-lows. A few months later, in June, Bitcoin revisited its previous yearly low and eventually broke it to establish a new one near 5756-fiat. And now, at the time of this writing, the digital currency is once again close to testing them both – thanks to an extended bearish run since bimonthly peak near $8,512.

Bitcoin this week has dropped 16 percent against the US Dollar already. That is more than $1,000 in a week. The bear dominance got catalyzed only after the SEC delayed its announcement for a possible Bitcoin ETF. As a result, the BTC/USD has broken one key support level after another, eventually dropping to early 6000s and now eyeing 5756-fiat should the bearish bias remain. Let’s have a look at our technical analysis to get a clear picture.

BTCUSD Technical Analysis

Despite being intraday traders most of the day, we had drawn a bear trajectory to confirm breakout levels for long-term holders. We are still noticing bulls leaving their long positions near the resistance of this trajectory formation. A breakout above this level could bring some medium-term upside targets in sight. So, we’ll recommend a watch out for this break.

At the same time, we are now in a range that influenced an extended buying sentiment in July 2018, eventually topping BTC/USD towards the early $8,000s. An upside correction, followed by a breakout above 6500-fiat could confirm this trend purely on historical sentiment.

But the reality is today, and we are in no better market than the last time. We are still forming bearish pennants, with absolutely no major upside corrections. And now, coming closer to the psychological support of 6000-fiat, we are also inviting an extended downside momentum towards 5756-fiat.

The BTC/USD is way below its 100H and 200H moving averages, while the RSI and Stochastic indicators are both inside an oversold region, awaiting corrections. This looks like a strong bearish bias on a 4H chart.

BTCUSD Intraday Analysis

We are focusing on the historical highs and lows of the new range we are in, defined by 6192-fiat as interim resistance and 6009-fiat as our interim support. The range is decently wide to apply our intrarange strategy. It means putting a short towards support on a pullback from resistance, and a long towards resistance on a bounce back from support.

A breakout above 6192-fiat will have us test 38.2 percent Fibonacci Level at 6290 (drawn from 7153-high to 5756-low) as our primary upside target. Putting a stop loss 4-pips below the entry point will define our risk management strategy/

Looking the other way, a break below 6009-fiat will have us put a short towards 5850-fiat while eyeing 5756 as our primary downside target. A stop loss around 2-pips above the entry level will protect us from unexpected bounce backs.