Rapid Shift

Inslee and O’Rourke’s climate proposals

Many US publications cover the climate-and-energy plan unveiled by Washington governor and presidential hopeful Jay Inslee. (Axios, New York Times, The Hill, Vox, and the Atlantic take an in-depth look at Inslee’s proposed “climate mission”. Buzzfeed also has the story.

Inslee’s proposal would

require all US electricity to be “carbon-neutral” by 2030 and

require all new US cars to be “zero emissions” by 2030

require all coal-fired power plants to be closed in a decade

Like Washington State plan, end coal-fired plant production by 2025, boost electric car infrastructure and create a clean energy fund to finance green projects

A second story in the Hill notes that the Sunrise Movement, a youth climate organisation that endorses the Green New Deal, has given its backing to Inslee’s plan. Meanwhile, the Hill reports on how climate change has become the leading issue for Democrat presidential hopefuls.

In the absence of federal action on climate change, more states are setting ambitious targets to reduce U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. Washington became the latest on Tuesday when Gov. Jay Inslee signed a law requiring that 100 percent of the state’s electricity come from clean energy sources by 2045.

Washington is now the fifth state or territory—following Hawaii, California, New Mexico and Puerto Rico—to commit to 100 percent clean electricity, and at least six other states are considering similar legislation.

“This means we can have a fighting chance at saving the things we cherish most — our land, our air, our water and our children’s health,” Inslee said in a prepared statement. “We aren’t done. Our success this year is just a harbinger of successes to come. But we’re ready. We can do this.”

Inslee has an even more ambitious plan for a nationwide conversion to clean energy: Last week, his presidential campaign issued a proposal to get the country to 100 percent zero-emissions electricity by 2035. while also requiring all new vehicles and buildings to be zero emissions. That followed another 2020 candidate, former U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke’s announcement of his own climate plan with a goal of reaching net zero emissions by 2050. Activists and some congressional Democrats supporting a Green New Deal want an even faster timeline: transform the nation’s electric grid to 100 percent clean energy in just 10 years.

These policies and proposals follow a report last fall by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warning that net greenhouse gas emissions must be brought to zero by mid-century to limit global warming to less than 1.5 degrees Celsius, the ambition of the Paris climate agreement. It said a 45 percent reduction from 2010 levels would be needed worldwide by 2030.

Meeting any of those timelines will require an unprecedented overhaul of infrastructure and policies to transform a national electricity system where only about a third of the power is currently generated by carbon-free sources. Renewable energy prices are falling, but many coal and natural gas power plants still have decades before their expected retirement dates.

“The Green New Deal at the national level has certainly elevated the conversation,” said Benjamin Inskeep, an analyst at EQ Research, a clean energy consulting firm. “States are hopping on that momentum to pass these kinds of policies.”

Since January, newly elected governors in Illinois, New Mexico, Michigan, Wisconsin, Maine and Nevada have joined the U.S. Climate Alliance, a group of governors who have committed to implementing policies consistent with the U.S. goal of the Paris Agreement. Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf last week became the 24th governor to join since President Donald Trump vowed to pull the U.S. out of the accord.

The states and territories in the alliance represent more than half of the U.S. population and economy, and their commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions could keep momentum going in the absence of strong action at the national level. Their goal is to achieve the Paris agreement short-term pledge made by the Obama administration: cutting at least 26-28 percent below 2005 levels by 2025. The Trump administration has disavowed this promise.

Clear Timeline For Ending Fossil Fuels

The Washington state law signed this week sets a clear timeline for the phaseout of fossil fuels and has several measures to address equity for low-income communities.

The law requires the state to stop using coal power by 2025. It boosts weatherization programs for low-income individuals; seeks to ensure the benefits of the clean energy transition, things like electric car charging stations, are distributed equally across all communities; and offers tax breaks to clean energy developers who hire union workers and companies owned by women, minorities and veterans.

“We feel like this sets a new high bar of what is possible in a state bill,” Kass Rohrbach, deputy director, of the Sierra Club’s Ready for 100 campaign, said.

Keeping climate change in check will require changes to other sectors of the economy, well beyond power generation. This is especially true in Washington state, where about 60 percent of the state’s electricity already comes from hydropower, and transportation makes up 43 percent of all greenhouse gas emissions.

A November ballot initiative in Washington state sought an economy-wide price on carbon, but after strong opposition from the oil and gas industry, it was defeated.

While the new law doesn’t place a fee on emissions, two additional laws signed by Inslee are designed to reduce emissions from buildings and transportation.

Another law will restrict the use of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), chemicals used in air conditioning and refrigeration, that are between 1,000 and 3,000times more potent as a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide.

States Leading The Way

Several other states have recently passed or are actively considering requiring 100 percent clean electricity or other major climate legislation, such as cap and trade. The highlights:

Minnesota: An energy bill that would require 100 percent clean electricity by 2050 passed the Democrat-controlled state House of Representatives on April 24, but it is not part of a related energy bill that passed the Republican controlled Senate. The two chambers will have to reach a compromise before sending the bill to newly elected Democratic Gov. Tim Walz, who has expressed support for 100 percent clean electricity legislation.

Illinois: A clean energy bill making its way through the state legislature would require 45 percent of electricity to come from renewable sources by 2030 and 100 percent by 2050. Newly elected Democratic Gov. J.B. Pritzker has expressed support for 100 percent renewable electricity but hasn’t endorsed this bill.

New York: Gov. Cuomo, a Democrat, is calling for a 100 percent clean power mandate by 2040. Another bill making its way through the state legislature would require all sectors of the economy, including transportation and buildings, to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions to zero by 2050.

Nevada: A bill signed by new Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak requires that 50 percent of the state’s electricity come from renewable sources by 2030. It sets a non-binding goal of 100 percent clean electricity by 2050. The bill passed both chambers of the legislature with unanimous bipartisan support in a state that leads the country in solar industry jobs per capita.

Oregon: The state already has a number of strong climate policies, including a 50 percent renewable electricity requirement by 2040. The legislature is now considering economy-wide cap-and-trade legislation that could result in Oregon joining California and Quebec in an emissions trading program.

Maine: The Maine Legislature is considering a bill introduced by newly elected Democratic Gov. Janet Mills on April 30 that would require the state to get 100 percent of its electricity from renewable sources by 2050 and to reduce carbon emissions across its economy by 80 percent by 2050.

Massachusetts: Current law requires the state to cut carbon emissions across all sectors of the economy 80 percent by 2050. Legislation now being considered would go further, requiring net zero emissions by 2050. Another bill making its way through the statehouse would require 100 percent renewable electricity by 2035 and 100 percent renewable energy for all sectors of the economy by 2045.

Colorado: Newly elected Democratic Gov. Jared Polis ran on a platform of 100 percent renewable electricity by 2040. No such bill has been introduced in the state legislature this year. However, a number of other climate policies are on their way to Polis’s desk for signing. Among them is a bill that would set a non-binding target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions across all sectors of the economy by 90 percent by 2050. Another would set a non-binding 100 percent clean energy target for the electric sector by 2050.

New Jersey: State legislators are considering 100 percent renewable electricity legislation, and the state is poised to rejoin the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, a nine-state carbon cap-and-trade system that it left in 2012. Virginia moved closer to joining on April 19 when state regulators approved new regulations allowing for a cap-and-trade system to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from power plants. The legislature wrote the state budget in a way that delays its participation until 2021, and the governor approved it.

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Jay Inslee promised serious climate policy and he is delivering: The Democratic candidate for president is getting into the nuts and bolts of decarbonization.

From the beginning, federal climate politics in the US have been dominated by symbolism and signaling. Republicans dismiss climate change or call it a liberal plot. Democrats say, “We believe in science!” Activists argue over long-term targets and who cares most.

With the brief exception of 2009-2010, when the Waxman-Markey climate bill was up for debate, the national focus rarely stays for long on the nuts and bolts of policy itself.

Lately, though, climate change has become, according to a recent CNN poll, the single most important issue to Democratic primary voters. After years and years of stumbling along as a second- or third- (or tenth-) tier concern, it’s finally getting its moment in the spotlight.

All right, we’re transitioning off fossil fuels. How? Where are we starting, how are we sequencing, and what tools are we using?

Most of the candidates are not ready to talk about it. Their hearts are in the right place, for the most part, but they don’t have much depth on the issue and don’t speak on it with much authenticity. Very few national Democrats really do. You don’t have to know much to say, “I believe in science.”

Last week, 2020 hopeful Beto O’Rourke opened the climate-policy bidding with a climate plan. It’s a somewhat peculiar creature, best described by Julian Noisecat of the think tank Data For Progress: It reads “like the movement had a baby with a consultant.”

Good stuff from @BetoORourke, which reads like the movement had a baby w a consultant. Movement W’s:
– Prioritize investments in frontline communities
– Moratorium on oil & gas leasing on public lands and permitting overhaul
– Echoes of GND all overhttps://betoorourke.com/climate-change/

That’s dead on, with both positive and less positive implications.

In the positive column, it is quite clear that the Green New Deal and the movement behind it have indelibly shaped the Democratic primary. Beto’s plan targets economy-wide carbon neutrality by 2050, proposes a moratorium on oil and gas leasing, promises to prioritize frontline communities, and headlines $5 trillion in investments. All of that bears the imprint of the GND. The consultant-speak, focus on leveraging private investment, and attention to the incremental possibilities of executive power to create a kind of gloss over the proposal, help it appeal to normies.

In the less positive column, it feels like a product of the moment, designed to tick various boxes. I don’t hear any singular sensibility or coherent approach in it, something that might offer a hint of how O’Rourke would prioritize as president.

All of which brings us to Washington governor and presidential contender Jay Inslee, who on Friday released the first of what he promises will be a series of proposals on climate policy. Together, they will form what he calls his Climate Mission agenda.

It is probably fair to say that Inslee is not a favorite to win the Democratic contest. But if this first salvo is any indication, he is at the very least going to substantially elevate the level of climate policy debate. This is policy made by a team that’s been sweating over the details for years, bringing a level of sophistication and experience that is much needed.

All the policy discussion may all be for naught if Democrats fail to take Inslee’s advice and kill the Senate filibuster. But Democrats need the debate regardless, to be better prepared whenever a window of opportunity opens.

Step one of Climate Mission: electricity, new cars, and new buildings

The Climate Mission agenda will target economy-wide net-zero carbon emissions “as fast as possible, and by no later than 2045.” (The Sunrise Movement activists behind the GND feel strongly that the US should target net-zero by 2030.)

That’s the overall goal. But the focus of the agenda will be a ten-year mobilization, per the GND. That will involve an array of policies targeted at various sectors, which the campaign will release over the coming months.

100 percent zero-emissions in new light- and medium-duty vehicles and all buses;

100 percent zero-carbon pollution in all new commercial and residential buildings.

Collectively, electricity, transportation, and buildings are responsible for 70 percent of US carbon emissions, so in many ways this is the central and most significant plant of the agenda. (The campaign promises policy on existing vehicles and existing buildings — in many ways trickier problems — in subsequent proposals.)

Let’s look at a few quick highlights from each area.

Getting the carbon out of electricity

Here, Inslee’s policy is modeled after the 100-percent-clean bill his own state of Washington just passed. It sets a clean energy standard (CES) whereby all utilities must deliver carbon-neutral power by 2030 and 100 percent “clean, renewable and zero-emission” electricity by 2035.

Two notes. First, “carbon neutral” is a specific term of art. It means that if utilities fall short of 100 percent clean electricity in 2030, they can make up the difference by investing in other carbon-reducing projects, like, say, energy efficiency retrofits for customers. It’s a clever way to induce non-federal investment in those projects.

Renewable and clean energy standards are catching on at the state level. BTI

Getting to zero-carbon electricity also involves a host of complementary policies:

offering refundable tax credits for clean-energy projects, tied to job-quality standards, such that developers can only get the full credit if they make good-faith efforts to pay union wages, hire union labor, seek out woman- and minority-owned contractors, etc.; this both spurs clean energy development and ensures that it creates high-quality jobs;

investing in frontline communities (like communities where coal plants are shut down) for worker and community transition assistance and community-based projects;

working with utilities to encourage on-bill financing of efficiency and distributed energy projects;

accelerating the evolution toward performance-based utility regulation (more on PBR in this post);

expanding the long-distance transmission system to better distribute renewable energy (here, in particular, Inslee’s team shows its familiarity with existing regulatory structures and how they can be tweaked to perform better; there’s a reference to “Dynamic Line Ratings,” a phrase you probably won’t hear again in the primary).

This is good stuff, centered on what ought to be the first item on any serious national climate agenda: a CES that gets to zero-carbon electricity as fast as possible. Clean power will make everything else easier. It’s technologically feasible, and there are state models for how to do it, including Washington.

Getting the carbon out of new cars

The centerpiece here is cranking up CAFE standards until they effectively mandate 100 percent zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) for all new sales in 2030 forward. (This is, notably, something within the president’s power to do without Congress, though it will by no means be easy or straightforward.)

a “Clean Cars for Clunkers” program that would establish “fuel-economy based trade-in rebates for consumers to exchange their fuel-inefficient cars or trucks for new ZEVs”

rapid electrification of the federal vehicle fleet and efforts to work with states to do the same for state fleets

massive investment in EV charging infrastructure

federal financing for state and local efforts to retire gas and diesel buses in exchange for electric buses (which, as I have argued, are going to be the cutting edge of the EV market)

This stepwise increase in the market for electric vehicles will work in sync with clean electricity to tackle two of the biggest carbon problems at once. And cleaner, quieter vehicles — especially quieting the incessant din of city buses — will provide an immediate and tangible benefit to the public.

This leaves plenty in transportation (notably heavy trucks and airplanes) untouched for now. The campaign promises subsequent policy on that stuff and, crucially, on efforts to reduce vehicle use through urban density and public transit. But this is a solid foundation.

The centerpiece is the creation of a national Zero-Carbon Building Standard by 2023, working with states to integrate it into state and local codes, along with stronger federal incentives for states and cities to adopt building “stretch codes.” (Los Angeles recently announced a similar plan, targeting all zero-carbon new buildings by 2030.)

Again, along with that comes a suite of complementary policies:

eliminating fossil fuel use in “all new and renovated federal buildings” by 2023

establishing tax incentives for energy efficiency and electrification in new residential and commercial construction

increasing financing for upgrades of schools and public buildings

renewing the Energy Efficiency and Conservation Block Grant (EECBG) Program to help fund local zero-carbon construction projects

some even wonkier stuff, about REITs and ESPCs and what have you

The is a push-and-pull approach, with stronger building and efficiency standards pushing and greater federal funding and investment pulling. As I said, it leaves aside the rather more difficult task of what to do about the carbon emissions of existing buildings, but the campaign promises to address that in the next tranche of policies.

Seattle’s Bullitt Center, arguably the greenest building in the country.Bullitt Center

Getting into the policy details can make radicalism seem more manageable

The problem with climate debates waged over symbolism is that they encourage everyone to retreat to their identity-based camps and dig in.

Nothing can entirely prevent polarization in these most polarized of times, but one thing that can help dampen it is to take the discussion out of the clouds, out of the realm of competing symbols, and into the dirt and soil of policy work.

Approach a small city and tell it socialists are coming to steal its cows, you’ll get backlash. Tell it there’s a national push to decarbonize buildings underway, and that there will be an array of regulatory sticks and investment carrots ensuring that everyone moves along together, and that the city can prosper — economically and reputationally — by adopting stretch goals and outpacing other cities … it’s just a different kind of conversation.

Policy, even if people don’t track the details, implicitly makes all the grand goals and targets seem more tangible and achievable. “Decarbonize by 2050” is unwieldy, almost purely symbolic to most people. But a program of sticks and carrots — tightened vehicle fuel-economy and fuel carbon-intensity standards coupled with investments to stand up US ZEV manufacturing capacity and make ZEVs cheaper for consumers — well, that you can wrap your head around. That you can begin to envision.

Policy is how we stop discussing “whether” and start discussing “how.” Mainstream Democrats need to become more fluent in this policy language and familiar with these policy options. Perhaps Inslee’s thoughtful proposals will, if nothing else, spur the other candidates to devote the resources and staffing to this area of policy that it deserves. It’s time to raise the bar.