New poll: Nothing has changed in governor’s race since June

University of Texas pollsters have come up with results in the Texas Republican gubernatorial primary that are almost identical to a poll they conducted in June — Gov. Rick Perry leads U.S. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison by 12 percentage points.

The survey, done with an exclusive release purchased by the new online publication the Texas Tribune, found Perry leading 42 percent among self-identified Republicans to Hutchison’s 30 percent. The pollster’s result in June was Perry, 38 percent; Hutchison, 26 percent.

Both results are consistent within the two polls margins of error.

Given the fact neither campaign has tried to drive a message through paid television advertising, it is not very surprising that the numbers have not changed. Perry and Hutchison have been campaigning like incumbents.

The Tribune gave the following on the Democratic primary:

On the Democratic side, nobody had great numbers. Kinky Friedman leads the pack, with 19 percent, followed by Tom Schieffer, with 10 percent, former Travis County District Attorney Ronnie Earle, with 5 percent, Mark Thompson, with 3 percent, Felix Alvarado, with 2 percent, and Hank Gilbert, who got 0.3 percent. Earle hasn’t declared, but is looking, and Thompson withdrew from the race after the poll. (The numbers might not add to 100, due to rounding.)

The survey had some head to head numbers for the Democrats versus the Republicans, but those mostly reflected name identification.

And Gilbert’s campaign manager, Vince Leibowitz, was angry that there was no horse race between Gilbert and the Republicans included in the survey:

“I cannot believe I waited up until 4:40 in the morning for this poll. It is a complete and total joke. In addition to Hank Gilbert having been left off part of the poll-a fact the Tribune fails to mention but which is clearly mentioned in a footnote of the poll-the company conducting the poll is one that conducts unreliable internet-based polls.

Leibowitz went on to discuss the poll’s techniques:

The company conducting the poll operates the website YouGovPollingPoint at pollingpoint.com. In addition to allowing people to self-register to be polled, it allows people to earn points through its polls toward the ‘purchase’ of merchandise on their website, much of their polling pool comes from people who respond to online advertisements. People may complain about the reliability of telephone polls, but the reliability of this poll is so far from being beyond reproach I don’t even know what else to say.

Another problem the poll might have with perceptions is that one of the pollsters, Daron Shaw, received $10,000 from Perry’s 2006 re-election campaign and has done work for a number of other Republican causes. In the past, groups that have used the University of Texas polling have noted that Shaw’s Republican leanings are offset by the poll’s other author, Democrat Jim Henson.