Guidance from hockey, of course, starts with the famous Wayne Gretzky quote: “A good hockey player plays where the puck is. A great hockey player plays where the puck is going to be.”

The reality is that successful investment management is not about what has just happened. It is about identifying the risks and opportunities that are in front of us. This is probably true for all of us running businesses.

But, in identifying risks and opportunities, in managing money or a business, a solid process is key to success. Which leads to another hockey-ism: “Keep your head up and stick on the ice.” So, we must watch what is happening and stick to the principles that guide the running of a portfolio or enterprise.

So, with hockey as a guide — here is one of the main trends we are monitoring right now in the financial markets: long-term interest rates.

We are not going to wait for them to change before we make portfolio adjustments. We focus on the economic data trends that are a leading indicator to potential interest rate changes so that we can get ahead of key underlying metrics like, bank lending, the velocity of money, issues affecting unemployment such as hours worked per week, capacity utilization and others.

Here’s an example of a key underlying metric. When the employment report came out earlier this month, it was not the fact that the highly publicized unemployment rate ticked down 0.2 percent to 7.7 percent. A key underlying metric that could be more telling is that average hourly earnings and hours worked per week increased. We believe that this can be a better indicator of possible future employment growth. Think about it: If an employer has the need to hire someone, the company will expand hours and responsibilities of an existing employee prior to adding to head count.

So, getting back to the issue of interest rates increasing and the impact that it has on bond investors has been well-publicized in the financial media. We have all seen the headlines about a bond bubble and are anticipating the great rotation out of bonds and into stocks.

We are seeing this front and center as the stock market is racketing up to all time highs. Why? Money has been sitting on the sidelines for five years doing essentially nothing. Coupled with the fear of a bond bubble, money is pouring into the stock market.

What most people are missing is that if interest rates increase, which would be a catalyst for the bursting of the perceived bond bubble, stocks also may be challenged. Increased capital costs for businesses, along with higher borrowing costs for consumers, are not an ideal landscape for stock investors.

Although we are not market timers (and accurate market timing is impossible), understanding the timing of global macro events is an important element of an investment process.

Famed hedge fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller, in an interview with Bloomberg, said he expects a financial storm bigger than the crisis of 2008. However, he doesn’t give any time frame for his prediction.

According to Druckenmiller, the stock market is being pumped up with interest rates near zero and the Fed’s quantitative easing by buying $85 billion of assets a month. Druckenmiller warns that this is dangerous for the retail investor. Why? There is an underlying problem: the unsustainable costs of Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. Druckenmiller estimates the unfunded liabilities are as high as $211 trillion. He believes that will bankrupt the nation’s youth.

Druckenmiller said unsustainable spending would eventually result in a crisis worse than the financial meltdown of 2008. This may be true, but let’s put these comments into context. What is unsustainable? Many economists consider a country’s debt-to-GDP as a measure of fiscal sustainability. According to the most current information reported by TradingEconomics.com, the U.S. has a debt-to-GDP of approximately 101 percent. In comparison, Japan’s is reported to be 211 percent. In January, The Hill.com reported that it is estimated to take the U.S. 28 years to get to the levels of Japan.

Druckenmiller is telling us where he thinks the puck is going to be. However, he makes no prediction of when the puck will get there. If our country does become Japan and it takes 28 years to unfold, investors who went to the sidelines in 2013 because of a headline they read by Mr. Druckenmiller may miss out on some opportunities.

As an example, if I didn’t have an investment process, I may have sold my bond positions three years ago when the headlines of a bubble first surfaced, which would have resulted in missing significant fixed-income opportunities.

I am pleased to see Druckenmiller become vocal about these issues. Awareness of our country’s fiscal challenges is essential to evoke change. The good news is that there are many things our country can do between now and “unsustainable” that could avert the crisis Druckenmiller is predicting.

Hence the reason to “keep your head up, and stick on the ice.”

Carrie Coghill, CFP, AIF is president and CEO of Coghill Investment Strategies located at Suite 2606 in the Koppers Building in Pittsburgh. She can be reached at 412-575-5900 and followed on Twitter (@carriecoghill). Securities and advisory services offered through Commonwealth Financial Network, Member FINRA/SIPC, a Registered Investment Adviser.