Egypt unrest: what sparked the military crackdown on Brotherhood camps

Just one month after the overthrow of Egypt's first democratically elected president, Mohamed Morsi, the country is again facing uncertainty over its future.

This week, security forces violently attacked Morsi supporters, who were attacked at encampments near Cairo where they had been calling for the former president's return to power. The death toll from the attack is at 525 – and rising.

The US has strongly condemned the violence and is facing pressure to suspend aid to Egypt's military as the number of casualties and injuries continues to mount.

Join Spencer Ackerman and Martin Chulov on Friday afternoon for a Q&A on the crackdown, the country's future and the role of the US in the ongoing crisis.

Martin is an expert on the middle east who has reported extensively from Egypt and Syria for a number of years. Spencer is national security editor of Guardian US and will be able to provide context on the role of the US in the ongoing crisis.

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Are there evidences of the involvement of the Muslim Brotherhood in the burning of churches? I remember allegations that the Mubarak-era Interior Minister was actually complicit in sectarian violence to blame Islamists.Thank you

There is evidence that Islamists, not necessarily Muslim Brotherhood members, torched up to seven churches on Wednesday and Thursday. Some Islamist leaders and supporters have spoken openly about such attacks being reprisals for the violence at the two Cairo sit-ins. There is a view among some Brotherhood members that the Coptic Church has given political cover to security forces and the arson attacks seem framed as a political response, rather than a new phase in an old theological conflict.

So far, there’s no evidence that the state has been behind the sectarian flare-ups in the past few days.

Those who oppose the MB argue that they exceeded worst fears, by moving quickly to install their own people - often hardliners, move against heads of key cultural institutions, and haphazardly overspend by about $1.5 billion per month. The new constitution was a big moment and did not play well among large sections of the community. along the way, they steadily lost the trust of the military. They never did have the support of the Interior Ministry. Brotherhood people say they should have been punished for their shortcomings at the ballot box in three years time. Many Egyptians said they couldn't wait that long.

He did not respect the law or the constitution he swore he would protect, He issued a constitutional decree to consolidate his powers and force a constitution that alienated most of the Egyptian people. In brief he tried to impose his brotherhoods ideology on people who did not accept it, he alienated the opposition and never compromised on anything. Furthermore he was trying to put his people in key positions to rig all the coming elections. The opposition and the army gave him several chances to change his position but he never listened. By the way, I voted for him but I turned against him since he issued his constitutional decree. If the president does not respect the law, how can you expect any one else to respect it.

They did nothing terribly bad. But, yes, Morsi DID go too far in consolidating power in his own hands, after consultation with the MB.s Head, Badie, with the aim of countering the counter-revolutionary strategy of the "deep state" -- the remnants of the Mubarak era apparatchiks, the army, and the anti revolution Copts. Morsi has acknoledged making mistakes. A revolution is not a smooth change of regime, and grave mistakes are inevitable.

Morsi was a bad leader .. for a year his government provided no financial plan .. neither political or societal .. financial crisis stroke all over Egypt .. as an indicator the dollar jumped from 6 Egyptian pounds to more than 7 Egyptian pounds during his rein .. he made lots of dictatorial decisions .. tried as hard as possible to get his men in the muslim brotherhood to all higher governmental posts even if they know nothing about what they are supposed to do .. in his last weeks he frankly agitated people by describing his opponents as traitors .. sick-headed people & even viians & non-believers !! This speech of hatred destroyed the last hope that things could be rectified while he still controls Egypt .. he refused to change the government or listen to his counselors to the extent that most of them resigned !!

The liberal secular opposition has no support on the streets and no real policies. All they advocated for the last 2.5 yrs was that MB is bad for you. They talk a lot about freedoms to wear bikinis and drink wine when at least 90% of Egyptians never even thought of these things. They had no real political program and, like the MB and Morsi, they too were novices to the political game.

The opposition decided that they would not get into office by elections, so they thought the military coup can take power from Morsi and give it to them. They thought they were using the army to get to power while the army led by El-Sisi were the ones who actually used the liberal civilian opposition as a veneer for a full military coup that will be followed by a dictatorship led by a new ex-army Sisi.

Actually there as no plan proposed by the EU countries or America .. as Obama said Egyptians have to decide their own future .. they only asked all parties to sit together .. that's hat the new government announced many times but unfortunately the muslim brotherhood refused .. they were clinching to the throne & only accepted talks if morsi gets back as president without any gaurantees of political fixations .. something impossible on real ground .. the new government has a clear plan for fixing faulty constitution , parliamentary elections then governmental elections .. all to be finished in 9 months without excluding any party .. actually the legislative committee has finished fixing the faulty constitution & a societal & political committee to be formed soon to revise the constitution again before putting it to referendum

Does the coup have majority political support in Egypt? Specifically:_______________________________________A. Which groups support the coup (and where they are political parties what percentages did they get in the most recent parliamentary elections)?------------------------------------------------------------------------B. Which groups oppose the coup (and where they are political parties what percentages did they get in the most recent parliamentary elections)?------------------------------------------------------------------------C. Which groups are neutral towards the coup (and where they are political parties what percentages did they get in the most recent parliamentary elections)?

It’s difficult to be scientific about the level of support for the coup. I think an accurate way to characterize it is that it had broad popular support. The support base was a broad mix; including disenfranchised members of the Mubarak era, among them large numbers of the military, security forces and civil servants. Egypt’s Christians, who account for around 10 per cent of the country’s 84 million population supported the coup en masse, as did liberals, secularists, and much of establishment Cairo. In addition, were a broad group of the country’s Muslim population who were never comfortable with the Brotherhood view of how Egypt should be led. Finally, the most interesting – and most difficult to pin down – among the coup supporters were those who did vote for Morsi, but had become disillusioned with his government’s chaotic year in office.

In the election of June 2012, Morsi won office with a 52 per cent majority – a result that was not seriously disputed. No polling (that I know of) has been since to reflect where support now lies.

Definitely. Except for the brotherhood, the other islamist groups and a small minority of supporters, everybody else was against him. Other than the army, the police and the state officials, there was also the judiciary, the media and oridinary people like myself who even voted for him. I am sure that if he had accepted early elections, he would have never reached a 25% approval.

Very hard to say, as a demographic cutaway view of the people in the demonstrations is impossible, as is for the people who may back or fight the interim government but are not so outspoken. Certainly the Tamarod movement that sparked the protest against the MB's government is allegedly lead by young middle class people of Cairo. That is why this self-righteous military intervention is disgraceful, too. It is muddling the very water that the simple, perhaps not perfect, ways of democratic rules help clarify. When you vote you know who is there and how much he got (supposing no cheating). But the very idea of voting is quite foreign to the political toolbox of Islam, and both sides I guess care little about it. For once, though, it was the usually decried Islamist who was playing fair and the secularized force who are committing foul play. Hence the outrage after Morsi's deposition.

Actually it is not a coup .. people demosntrated against Muslim brotherhood regime in the streets on the 30th of June in numbers estimated at over 30 millions .. in a country whose population is nearly 90 millions !! Maybe the largest demonstrations ever in history .. even then the armed forces asked Morsi not to resign but to hold an electoral & let people make the decision over his stay .. they asked him to change the failed government .. to give more space for other parties .. he refused all these solutions & his brotherhood started a speech of terror against the Egyptians back then with multiple attacjs .. the army had to take an action so he seized control & appointed the top of legislative authority in Egypt as a president & made a plan for new elections & modify the faulty constitution within 6 months ..as regard to numbers .. Egyptians are closely related to the army .. over 75 % support the change that happened .. Muslim brotherhood & its supporters are against it & I think around 10 - 15 % are neutral

Is their any truth to the articles published in the NY Times and the WSJ which allege that the Mubarak era "Deep state" deliberately conspired to make the life's of ordinary egyptians miserable with power cuts and lack of fuel and that they planned the overthrow in advance, as as opposed to an emergency response.

In the two weeks preceding the ousting of Morsi, the electricity supply was fickle and fuel supplies were low. These problems were quickly resolved within three days of the 3 July coup. The military has control over the gas and oil distribution network.

That's what some media channels in Egypt related to the islamists tried to propagate too .. actually Mubarak regime used to & still owns most of the private sector wealthy companies in Egypt & over 80 % of stock market listed companies "EGX 30 " .. it's un logic to corrupt their own companies .. the power cuts were due to lack of fuel supply as it was continuously transferred to Ghaza region where it was sold ( black market business ) .. after Morsi was overthrown the army closed illegal tunnels between Sinai & Ghaza region .. & discovered over 10 huge fuel reservoirs on the borders containing tens of thousands of Tons of fuel that were continuously transferred to Ghaza .. that's why everything got fixed afterwards .. another reasons as the low quality government .. Morsi got his own men regardless of their qualifications or expertise .. they didn't know what to do or how to fix any problem .. they even remained for a whole year without plotting a plan !! That's the reason why international funding agencies & the EU didn't approve on giving us any financial aid due to lack of planning

Even if this was true (and it was), he should have expected it. And if he was that helpless, it means that he was not fit to rule. He never cared about the ordinary people, he only cared about his brotherhood.

The military forces always have the support & empathy of Egyptians .. it's a historic relationship .. regarding western support .. I guess it's not a worry as we are not in wars for over 40 years now .. we already have a well established army so I think cutting military aids won't be even a minor threat .. on the contrary .. western countries need the support over the Egyptian military forces as they are still the biggest army in the middle east in number

I don’t see a connection. Morsi kept the Rafah border with Gaza by and large closed, which comforted the Israelis. While the election of an Islamist with ties to Hamas was clearly not Netanyahu’s preferred result, the relationship had remained largely trouble free.

Liberals, especially those who wanted Mubarak ousted in favour of democracy are in a fraught position. They argue that democracy doesn’t start and end at the ballot box and that the military simply carried out the will of the people on 3 July. That said, the violent scenes repeated three times in the past six weeks have been troubling for many who took to Tahrir Square in January 2011. At that point, the Interior Ministry and the secret police were the greatest foe for liberals and secularists, who were standing alongside Brotherhood figures as Mubarak crumbled. Those same security figures are the protectors of what anti-Moris groups are calling Egypt’s second or “corrective” revolution.

The contradiction is difficult to reconcile. But it is being caast through the orism of democracy being a long, difficult and imperfect process.

The truth is there is no liberals in Egypt. Those who are claiming to be liberals are opportunist elements just to please West to grab power.You can think about El-baradei if he was a true liberal he must play the game of democracy than put himself side of Military coup. When you believe in something you have to use that means. Unfortunately El-baradei who is vocal opponent to Morsi, architect of military coup cannot today or tomorrow be seen like liberal despite his resignation which is too late.another element which come from French news interview of a coptic Egyptians said that Tamarod has been financed by some high ranking Coptic military by 25 millions of dollars and wealthy businessmen during Mubarak erea. Plus El-sisi hungry to power has used that to make a coup. The last meet between Morsi and El-sisi has been recorded and published in Al-haram and French news "Le Monde" where Sissi was telling Morsi to resign and he will him to go somewhere in dignity or he will do coup and accuse him of jail escape.

That's a good question :) Liberals weren't the only groups against Morsi ruling .. over 80 % of Egyptians rejected his ruling .. Yeah the protests on 30th of June was leaded by Liberals but over 30 million people joined them on the streets .. the people then thought that General El Sisy .. army commander wouldn't take their side & will stand by Mosri side against Egyptian people .. but it was a surprise to find out that the army decided to take the people side & declared it !! After things settled El Sisy announced that over the last few months he tried hardly to fix the political situation through advising president Morsi many times .. but Morsi didn't listen to anyone but his party :(

Assuming Egypt is able to dismantle the MB in Egypt, will it not ultimately be in the best interest of the region and the West? If so, would this explain the tepid response from Western governments to recent events (with the exception of Turkey of course)?

As published the only transition plan the brotherhood accepted was the one that got our country into this place .. getting Morsi back & waiting for the next elections .. this is the reason more than 30 million people went to the streets .. the proposed plan by the army & the new government is the logic one .. fixing the constitution & making a referendum over it again .. new parliamentary elections & new presidential elections .. that;s what is already happening now in Egypt

Depends on whether you believe that engaging political Islam - and approaching it as a legitimate representation of some societies' core values is necessary. That was the (short-lived) policy of the US vis a vis the MB in Egypt. Egypt will not be able to dismantle the movement, which has been around for 80 years. It will retreat to the sidelines and not engage as actively in public life, just as it has in Syria, and to some extent Jordan over the years.

The Military and the Interim Government it leads has for the past six weeks framed the crackdown in the context of combatting terrorism. The narrative has been relentless, despite being wide-open to factual challenge, and has won backing from large parts of Egyptian society that has long opposed the Brotherhood.

The Military has cast itself as a redeemer in a battle for the country’s destiny, while at the same time casting the Brotherhood specifically and Islamists in general as villains who aim to impose a radical interpretation of Islam on Egyptian society.

In the past 24 hours, the state has either denied it had used lethal force, claimed it was firing back when attacked, or said that forces who did fire acted with restraint. With the exception of the resignation of vice president Mohammed el-Baradei, who on Wednesday resigned in protest at the crackdown, there has been no expression of regret from the government, security forces, or military.

The same words that every totalitarian mind who is so much into power and aggression would use. It is somehow turning into part and parcel of their characteristics and personalities to call everyone opposing them as the terrorists and illegitimate rioters disturbing public while justifying their own actions by suppressing them and making believe that they are the good and the sacred ones and the evil is turning against them in the streets..!

The official reason for forceful removal (a euphemism) of demonstrator is they hinder the normal course of life and halt the country to a standstill. That for the chronicle. If you want a little comment, I find it weak ground to base such a brutal repression on. The tragically ludicrous thing is that those who protest are there to stand up for something they have always been told they must comply with, i.e. democratic rules. Many of them are religious and pious Muslims who have entered their ballots for the first time. Now they find that once they played by the rules it's the others (the secularized) who are cheating. Upsetting, uh?

Actually they don't need to say anything cause in Egypt everything is clear .. terrorist groups are shooting from automatic guns at people .. burnt over 30 churches .. attacked over 50 police stations .. killed nearly 100 police officers & over 200 military officers in terrorist attacks in Sinai over the last month .. to be honest .. we the people of Egypt starting questioning the new government as they were reluctant in evacuating these camping all over Egypt .. we thought they are going to make a deal with these terrorists .. before evacuation they gave the protesters many warning .. they even provided shuttle buses to take them home .. some replied .. the majority actually but others refused & started burning their own camps & firing at the forces .. at the end of the evacuation there was only 25 dead people among the protesters .. the toll reached 200 due to lack of proper medical treatment as they held their injured people inside mosques & refused to transport them to hospitals !! also they alreay had torrtured & killed a lot of people over the past 2mmonths & had their bodies kept in these camps .. I know it sounds horrific but that's the truth .. in the last days of camping anyone wanted to leave was brought in by their leaders .. tortured or even killed as a traitor .. hope GOD be with us against those terrorists

Did Egypt's relationship with Israel change at all under the Morsi government?

The Gaza crossing remained closed just like under Mubarak, but now we see Israel being allowed to kidnap people and conduct drone attacks in Egypt, which suggests extremely close security and intelligence coordination between Israel and the Egyptian Military.

Not really, which was a surprise to Tel Aviv. Morsi's people posed no immediate threat to the peace treaty. It is fair to say that the Israelis are more comfortable with the Egyptian military in charge, whose senior leaders they have dealt with for more than 30 years.

What do we know about the number and quality of weapons available with the MB? Do they have significant cadres trained in combat? Do they have a militant wing? What is the danger of them recruiting or galvanising militants from neighbouring states ... Syria, Lebanon, Libya

The MB in Egypt has disavowed violence. They remain close to other arms of the organisation in Syria and Jordan and to Hamas, which have military wings. If they wanted weapons they would have no trouble sourcing them from Hamas or Syria, or from state sponsors. There is a risk that Egypt could becoming a lightning rod for militant causes, or for jihadists, if reconciliation isn't reached.

I’m not sure that he or his officials deceived his constituents. Most of those who voted for him more or less knew what to expect. There are, however, voters who while happy to have accepted more of a role for Islam in society, became disenfranchised with what they saw as an over-reach. The sacking of key cultural officials and replacement with hardline Islamists, who paid scant heed to Egypt’s rich pre-Islamic past disturbed many who had been willing to give Morsi a chance. So did the haphazard drafting of a constitution which many believed subverted key values in favour of dogma. These and other mis-steps steadily broke down trust between Morsi and many of those who were indifferent to him, or inclined to see what he could offer.

Since the slaughter of over 600 civilians with US weapons yesterday in Cairo was a crime against a humanity, how is Obama's decision to keep sending more and more weapons not aiding and abetting a crime against humanity?

What possible legal justification can there be for NOT prosecuting Obama at the International Court of Justice for this?

Of course he deserves a fair trial, with due process and legal counsel, but it would seem obvious to ANY impartial attorney that he must be prosecuted immediately.

I can't speak to the UK reluctance. But for the US: under American law, a finding that a coup occurred means that US aid would trigger the suspension of US law. The Obama administration believes that the aid provides Washington with leverage over Egypt's generals that it would not otherwise have. Similarly, Egypt's generals would not appreciate the C word, since it calls into question their legitimacy.

As you might imagine, there are lots and lots of critics of this position, particularly after Wednesday's massacres. Here's a primer: http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/aug/15/egyptian-aid-white-house-rudderlessness

The US is pulling its punches (with the exception of John McCain) because to acknowledge a coup would have legal ramifications for its annual aid to Egypt. The UK says it doesn't want to meddle - but is also likely giving cover to Washington.

1. Do you think the opponents of the coup and the military installed government will be able to get enough momentum to overthrow the coup or is the military always too powerful for any peaceful protesters?2. Sisi said in interviews that he is closely working with the American Defense Chief with daily calls and exchanges. This to me means that America is involved in the coup from day 0, which is understandable considering previous US involvement in coups against unyielding regimes. Do you think they are still in control of events today, or is Sisi getting out of hand and playing his own game?3. Governments in Europe such as Belgium have called what happened a coup and closed down their embassies in Egypt. Do you the UK Government will ever take such a stand and stop blindly following the US line? Sometimes I wonder if US hegemony is such that even a British PM would not survive in office without blindly following US policies and interests.

It’s hard to see how the Brotherhood could bounce back from here. Its key goal of reinstating Morsi is unattainable and its options to reassert itself in public life have been severely limited for the past six weeks. The trust deficit between the military led government and Islamist groups is enormous. There have been no meaningful attempts at compromise and none are likely in the short term.

The US has been castigated by both sides ever since the coup. My colleague Spencer Ackerman might want to expand on this, but briefly; Washington maintained relations with Morsi and with the military establishment for the year of the elected government. US policy had been to allow the Government and society to sort out its own problems on its own terms, so long as the bedrock foreign policy issues – ie the peace treaty with Israel - remained out of play. Washington has had long-standing relations with the Egyptian military, which involved frequent contacts that were intensified in the past six weeks as part of a diplomatic push to prevent the situation deteriorating.

Sisi, while taking calls from Chuck Hagel and receiving dignitaries, has maintained a nationalistic posture, which reaffirms to stakeholders that he doesn’t allow terms to be dictated to him or to Egypt.

The US is reluctant to use the leverage that it has in Egypt.

As for the UK; diplomats privately acknowledge that what took place on 3 July was a military coup. They say that their reluctance to publicly describe it as such has more to do with not wanting to meddle, rather than having Washington’s back. You be the judge.