Women Supportive but Skeptical of Clinton, Poll Says

Women view Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton more favorably than men do, but she still faces skepticism among some women, especially those who are older and those who are married, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll.

Women hold more positive views than men of all the leading Democratic candidates. But winning the support of women, who made up 54 percent of voters in the last presidential election, is especially important to Mrs. Clinton, who has sought to rally them behind her quest to become the nation’s first female president.

The poll found that over all, women tend to agree with her on the issues and see her as a strong leader and as a positive role model.

A majority of those polled — both women and men — said they thought Mrs. Clinton would be an effective commander in chief, suggesting she has made headway in diminishing concerns that her sex would impede her from leading the nation in wartime. A majority of those polled also said they thought she would win the White House if she captured the Democratic nomination.

But the poll also held some warning signs for Mrs. Clinton, 59, the junior senator from New York.

Forty percent of voters view her unfavorably, more than for any of the other major candidates for president (although they are not as well known). Neither men nor women fully trust that she is saying what she really believes, the poll found.

Mrs. Clinton’s choices as a woman and a political figure have been intensely scrutinized during her 15 years on the national stage, and as she runs for president, the debate about her remains polarizing, politically and culturally.

Her role as the first woman to contend so seriously for the White House has also raised questions about how much to trust polling about her. Some polls in other elections have overstated the strength of minority candidates, perhaps because respondents were not being honest about their feelings or changed their minds in the privacy of the voting booth. It is unclear whether a similar phenomenon may occur in the case of a woman.

A third of Americans in the poll say most people they know will be “less likely” to vote for Mrs. Clinton because she is a woman — more than twice the number who say her being a woman will make people more likely to vote for her. Still, half of those polled said her sex would not matter.

The vast majority of all voters — more than 80 percent — think it very likely or somewhat likely that Mrs. Clinton will win the Democratic nomination. More than 60 percent think she is likely to win the presidency.

The poll was conducted by telephone across the country from July 9 to July 17 among 1,554 adults. Of those, 1,068 were women, a deliberate oversampling designed to examine the views of different groups of women. The margin of sampling error for all adults and for women is plus or minus three percentage points.

Among all registered voters, 46 percent of women have a favorable view of Mrs. Clinton, while 33 percent have an unfavorable view. The rest are undecided.

The numbers are opposite for men, with 34 percent having a positive view of her and 47 percent holding a negative one.

The support for Mrs. Clinton is most pronounced among unmarried and less affluent Democratic women. More than 8 in 10 working women say she understands their problems.

The older the woman, the more negatively she views Mrs. Clinton: 27 percent of those under age 45 view her negatively; 33 percent of those 45 to 64 view her negatively; and 40 percent of those 64 and older view her negatively.

“I like her strength, and I like that she’s been behind the scenes in the White House and knows the process and has the Senate experience,” Karla Whitt, 32, a small-business owner in Charlotte, N.C., said in a follow-up interview.

“I do like that she is a woman,” Ms. Whitt added, “but that’s not the main thing.”

Marilyn Bielstein, 69, a retired nurse in Gig Harbor, Wash., said flatly, “I don’t like her politics, and I don’t admire her as a woman.”

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Ms. Bielstein added, “I’ve followed her history back to her college days, and I just don’t trust her. I think she’s a socialist, and I think that’s exactly where she wants to take us.”

A majority of single women view Mrs. Clinton favorably, while married women are split. Thirty-nine percent of married women like Mrs. Clinton — about as many as like her two closest Democratic rivals, Senator Barack Obama of Illinois and former Senator John Edwards of North Carolina.

But 39 percent also view her negatively — significantly more than have a negative view of Mr. Obama and Mr. Edwards, who are not as well known.

Linda Carroll, 59, who lives in Crystal Springs, Miss., and works at an assembly plant, said she supported Bill Clinton and admired Mrs. Clinton for standing by her husband through their marital problems. But Ms. Carroll said she was “not ready for a lady president.”

“I’m not for this women’s lib stuff,” she said.

The poll shows that Mrs. Clinton might find additional supporters among certain groups. A third of politically independent women say they have not made up their minds about her. Similarly, liberal women make up one of her most reliable bases of support (66 percent of them have a favorable view) although one-fourth of them are still undecided.

But she faces skeptical voters like Mona Hughes, 64, an independent who lives in Orlando, Fla.

“There are certain things she has voted on since she has been in Congress that seem to me to lean more toward the Republican view of things, which doesn’t make me too happy,” said Ms. Hughes, a retired newspaper columnist.

“I want her to be strong and express strong feelings, not just fit her feelings to that audience at that moment,” she said.

Those who like Mrs. Clinton offered adjectives like forceful, courageous and strong to describe her. Thirty percent of women used those words, compared with 24 percent of men. The second-most-offered reason was that she is smart and well spoken, the view of 19 percent of women and 12 percent of men.

Among those who do not like her, women and men equally (2 in 10) said that they did not trust her. They also said equally (12 percent) that they disagreed with her views and values. A similar percentage said they saw her as “too much of a politician” and “a phony.”

But her favorable ratings have inched up in the past few months, and her unfavorable ratings have ebbed to where they are now even.

Mrs. Clinton entered the nation’s consciousness in 1992 as her husband sought the Democratic presidential nomination. Since then, The New York Times and CBS News have been tracking her favorability ratings. She started out in March 1992 with 31 percent of registered voters viewing her favorably, 17 percent unfavorably and the rest undecided or not knowing enough about her.

As time went on, public opinion was generally divided about her. Shortly after she announced her presidential candidacy in January, the balance of opinion was beginning to turn negative. But opinion is now evenly divided with 40 percent of registered voters having a favorable opinion and 40 percent unfavorable. (Among all respondents to the poll, 41 percent viewed her favorably and 38 percent unfavorably.)

Sonya McMahon, 57, who lives in San Diego and works in health care administration, said she had long viewed Mrs. Clinton as “harsh and cold.”

Although still undecided, Ms. McMahon said she was now finding Mrs. Clinton more appealing.

“Watching bits of her actual comments, I think some of that softening is coming through,” said Mrs. McMahon, who was not part of the poll but who was contacted after her daughter, who did participate, discussed her views with a reporter. “I say to myself, ‘That’s not so bad.’ I’ve warmed up to her.”

Megan Thee, Irma Encarnacion and Marina Stefan contributed reporting.

A version of this article appears in print on , on Page A1 of the New York edition with the headline: Clinton Has Support of Women But Faces Skepticism, Poll Says. Order Reprints|Today's Paper|Subscribe