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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL STORM HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE OCT 01 1996
HERNAN IS A LITTLE STRONGER AND BASED ON SHIP REPORTS AND SATELLITE
ESTIMATES...THE WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO 50 KNOTS. SINCE WATER
IS WARM AND SHEAR IS LOW...STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO
THE NEW CENTER THAT FORMED TODAY APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST ABOUT 5 KNOTS. MOST OF THE MODELS TAKE HERNAN ON A WEST
NORTHWEST TRACK PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF MEXICO...IN RESPONSE TO A
NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM.
HOWEVER...THE GFDL TURNS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHARPLY TO THE NORTH
BEYOND 36 OR 48 HOURS SUGGESTING THAT THE RIDGE MAY COLLAPSE. DUE
TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST AND THE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST...A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED.
AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/2100Z 15.7N 101.7W 50 KTS
12HR VT 02/0600Z 16.3N 102.0W 50 KTS
24HR VT 02/1800Z 17.0N 102.7W 60 KTS
36HR VT 03/0600Z 17.5N 103.5W 60 KTS
48HR VT 03/1800Z 18.0N 104.5W 60 KTS
72HR VT 04/1800Z 19.0N 106.0W 60 KTS
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