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1 Natural Disaster Response Lessons from Evaluations of the World Bank and Others 16

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3 Natural Disaster Response Lessons from Evaluations of the World Bank and Others David Todd and Hazel Todd Evaluation Brief 16

4 2011 Independent Evaluation Group Communications, Learning, and Strategy The World Bank 1818 H Street, NW Washington, DC Telephone: All rights reserved This Evaluation Brief is a product of the staff of the Independent Evaluation Group (IEG) of the World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. IEG does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of the World Bank or IEG concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of this work without permission may be a violation of applicable law. IEG encourages the dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission to reproduce portions of the work promptly. For permission to photocopy or reprint any part of this work, please send a request with complete information to ISBN-13: ISBN-10:

9 Summary This document aims to provide a concise collection of those good practices and challenges that have recently been identified by evaluative work on natural disaster response of the World Bank, the Independent Evaluation Group (IEG), and other major actors. It is hoped that the lessons identified can be used by World Bank staff engaged in work related to natural disasters, to gain insights into approaches that may promote or hinder effective assistance to partner countries. Although great international attention is focused on the occurrence of disasters and the shortterm response to them, this phase is only part of the overall disaster management cycle. This cycle includes three main phases pre-disaster, disaster response, and post-disaster each of which has an appropriate range of activities. These phases do not have clear boundaries, but overlap chronologically, as well as in terms of the ongoing activities. In placing the lessons concerning natural disaster response projects within the broader context of the disaster management cycle, it becomes clear that responses can be simpler and more effective if activities of the pre-disaster phase have already been appropriately conducted. Nevertheless, because this is often not the case, the lessons presented take account of the possibility that existing institutions dealing with disasters may not be strong. Lessons for the Pre-Disaster Phase Many lessons for the pre-disaster phase of the disaster management cycle actually appear in evaluations of disaster response activities. This is because pre-disaster activities have largely been catalyzed by such situations. Two basic lessons are apparent for this phase: Capacity development in disaster management before a disaster strikes can reduce the burden on disaster response support, make it more effective, and increase national ownership of the response process. A balanced approach to disaster management should relate it to broader national approaches to sustainable development and poverty reduction. Lessons for the Disaster Response Phase Evaluations have provided many lessons for this phase. However, these generally also carry over into the post-disaster phase, and even further into the next pre-disaster phase. Some of the lessons may partially contradict each other (for example, the value of local participation may cut across the benefits of speedy action), which means that trade-offs must be developed for each specific situation. Main emerging findings are presented below: Keep project design as simple and realistic as possible within what is likely to be a complex implementation environment. Base project deadlines on a specific analysis of capacity in the situation of post-disaster disruption, rather than on the normal situation. Streamline procedures as far as possible to meet the need for quick delivery. Although essential, the rapid development and processing of disaster-related interventions present ownership challenges. Natural disaster responses need to include a broad range of stakeholders, especially the poorest and most vulnerable, as well as the private sector. Disaster response situations often present the best opportunities to develop disaster vii

10 evaluation brief 16 preparedness (pre-disaster) activities, because of the temporarily high profile of disasters. Building such disaster preparedness elements during the response stage may require a longer period of implementation, initially focusing on rehabilitation and later on mitigation. Information, communication, and data management systems, which are vital in any disasterrelated situation, have often proved weak. Agencies financing natural disaster response projects have reported significant challenges in designing an instrument that provides resources quickly enough or for long enough to achieve their objectives. Lessons for the Post-Disaster Phase Evaluations of post-disaster phase activities have similarly generated lessons, many of which anticipate the next round of pre-disaster activities, as the cycle re-commences: Post-disaster recovery requires strong institutions, which can be achieved either through developing the capacity of existing bodies or by creating new ones. The latter usually need specific mandates and time boundaries to be effective. Community-driven approaches to recovery and reconstruction can help build local capacities for future project identification, planning, implementation, and ex post operation and maintenance. Housing reconstruction programs that give maximum responsibility to homeowners have been found more effective than contractorled systems. However, these programs need specific measures to ensure that vulnerable people can participate. Although speed is important in designing and implementing reconstruction programs, this should not be at the expense of accountability and transparency. Reconstruction programs should ensure that effective grievance and complaint mechanisms are in place for those who may feel excluded. Flexibility (especially for procurement procedures) and the ability to revise project targets and activities are vital in post-disaster situations, particularly when major infrastructure activities are implemented by multiple stakeholders. Because disaster-related projects face unusual implementation barriers associated with weakened institutions that are expending substantial funds quickly, strong monitoring and evaluation systems are even more important than normal. The Specifics of Slow-Onset Disasters Slow-onset disasters, such as droughts, are often long-lasting and recurring situations. To deal with this difficult combination, there is a strong need for collaboration and coordination between stakeholders involved in both humanitarian and developmental activities. However, this collaborative relationship has often proved difficult, and cooperation between the two kinds of institutions is widely reported to be ineffective. Applying the Lessons Since the publication of IEG s 2006 evaluation Hazards of Nature, lessons have continued to emerge concerning natural disaster response activities. These lessons have been organized here according to the phase of the disaster management cycle in which they first occur. One overriding lesson concerns the advantages of reducing risks and increasing preparedness within the national development strategies of countries that are prone to disasters. Measures taken to reach these objectives are believed to deliver substantial gains in the effectiveness of the response when disasters occur. However, formal evaluations of the impacts delivered by risk reduction and preparedness so far are largely absent. It is also clear that every natural disaster has unique characteristics, so that the lessons presented here need to be carefully assessed for their applicability in each case. They provide a set of guidelines that can be examined for their relevance to specific situations, with the viii

11 Natural Disaster Response: Lessons from Evaluations of the World Bank and Others objective of making interventions more effective and efficient for affected countries, as well as for donors assistance programs. Some of the lessons derived from project and program experience in the area of natural disaster response would apply to projects in any field, but are even more important in the case of disaster projects, because of the social, economic, institutional, and governmental disruption in which they operate. There is also a distinctive set of lessons concerning the processes through which disaster response can be prepared and planned for in advance. These highlight the importance, within the overall disaster management cycle, of disaster risk reduction and the need to raise its profile in both affected countries and international organizations. Risk reduction should have a central role in any disaster-prone country s overall sustainable development strategy and should therefore form an integral part of the donors programs and country strategies. ix

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13 1. Introduction This brief aims to provide a concise collection of those good practices and challenges that have recently been identified by evaluative work on natural disaster responses of the World Bank, the Independent Evaluation Group (IEG), and other major actors. It is hoped that the lessons identified can be used by World Bank staff engaged in work related to natural disaster management to gain insights into approaches that may promote or hinder effective assistance to partner countries. Its main data sources include Implementation Completion and Results Reports (ICRs); self-evaluations by the World Bank of projects that closed since 2006; IEG s independent field-based evaluations of a subset of these projects (Project Performance Assessment Reports); IEG evaluative notes on specific natural disasters in Haiti, Pakistan, and West Africa; World Bank publications covering natural disasters (mostly published since 2006); and reviews and evaluations of natural disaster activities by a variety of international and national bodies active in the field. This report first presents an overview of the key phases of the disaster management cycle, which have been identified by academics and practitioners in the field. This is important to show the interrelationship between the different phases associated with disasters and the types of assistance that are most effective in preparing for and responding to such events. It then outlines the different types of lessons that have been found to apply to each phase before drawing some brief conclusions. 1

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15 2. The Phases of the Disaster Management Cycle Although great international attention is focused on the occurrence of disaster events and the short-term response to them, this phase is only a part of the overall disaster management cycle. As shown in Figure 1, the cycle includes three main phases; for each phase, a range of activities is appropriate. 1 These phases do not have clear boundaries, but overlap chronologically, as well as in terms of the ongoing activities. In placing the lessons concerning natural disaster response projects within the broader context of the disaster management cycle, it becomes clear that responses can be simpler and more effective if activities of the pre-disaster phase have already been appropriately conducted. Nevertheless, because this is often not the case, the lessons presented here take into account the possibility that existing institutions dealing with disasters may not be strong at the time the disasters occur. Phase 1: Pre-Disaster The pre-disaster phase is, in many ways, the most important. With rare exceptions, the occurrence of disasters is in principle predictable, although not their precise location, timing, or severity. For this reason, a variety of measures should be taken in advance, notably in the areas of risk assessment, mitigation/prevention, disaster preparedness, and risk reduction. 2 There is a close link between disaster risk reduction and preparedness. Risk reduction activities within the pre-disaster phase often focus particularly at the community level. They fall within the conceptual framework of elements considered likely to minimize vulnerabilities and disaster risks throughout a society to avoid (prevent) or limit (mitigate and prepare for) the adverse impacts of hazards, within the broad context of sustainable development. The disaster risk reduction framework encompasses the following fields of action (UN ISDR 2002, p. 23): Risk awareness and assessment, including hazard analysis and vulnerability/capacity analysis Knowledge development, including education, training, research, and information Public commitment and institutional frameworks, including organizational, policy, legislation, and community action Application of measures, including environmental management, land-use and urban planning, protection of critical facilities, application of science and technology, partnership and networking, and financial instruments Early warning systems, including forecasting, dissemination of warnings, preparedness measures, and reaction capacities. Mitigation can include structural and nonstructural measures undertaken to limit the adverse impact of natural hazards, environmental degradation, and technological hazards. Preparedness helps the community cope better 3

16 evaluation brief 16 Figure 1: Phases of the Disaster Management Cycle Phase 1: Pre-Disaster Risk Assessment Mitigation/ disaster risk reduction activites Pre-Disaster Phase Risk assessment Mitigation Preparedness activities Disaster Event Early warning and evacuation Post-Disaster B Social and economic recovery and rehabilitation Ongoing development strategies and activities Phase 3: Post-Disaster Post-Disaster A Continued response and assistance to affected community/international agencies Infrastructure restoration Response Phase Disaster response Initial damage assessment Immediate assistance to affected community Media attention Phase 2: Response Source: Based on work of Ian Davis, Cranfield University, Bedford, United Kingdom. should another disaster develop. It includes activities and measures taken in advance to ensure effective response to the impact of hazards. It may include leadership training and strengthening community participation; plans for the issuance of timely and effective early warnings; and measures for the temporary evacuation of people and property from threatened locations, such as communities living near a possible source of flooding. Phase 2: Response The response phase begins immediately after a disaster strikes and encompasses both immediate response (relief) and medium-term response, the latter of which attempts to begin to re-establish functionality of systems and infrastructure. Once a disaster has taken place, the first concern is effective relief helping those affected to recover from the immediate effects of the disaster. Such relief work includes providing food, clothing, shelter, and medical care to victims. For rapid onset disasters, such as earthquakes, this phase may last for weeks or a few months. For slow onset disasters, such as droughts, it may last months or even years. Medium-term response takes the first steps toward recovery by assessing damage to infrastructure, communities, institutions, industry, and business and by planning measures 4

17 Natural Disaster Response: Lessons from Evaluations of the World Bank and Others necessary to restore these to previous levels or better. There is an overlap between the response and the post-disaster phases, and projects or programs may span both. Phase 3: Post-Disaster The post-disaster phase includes activities in the fields of recovery, rehabilitation, and reconstruction. It also affords an opportunity to develop disaster risk reduction measures, which can be applied during the next pre-disaster phase (that is, Phase 1). This phase includes the following: Decisions and actions taken after a disaster with a view to restoring or improving the pre-disaster living conditions of the stricken community, while encouraging and facilitating necessary adjustments to reduce disaster risk. Restoring the basic services needed to enable life to move back toward normalcy. External support, such as loans to governments, technical assistance, resources for farmers, and help for businesses to restart. Rebuilding homes and industry, which is linked to restoration of social and economic development. It is important at this stage to design stronger buildings that are able to withstand future disasters. Activities focused on enabling communities to protect themselves. Such measures need to be particularly available to those at greatest risk the poorest and most vulnerable in the community. Notes 1. The authors prefer to call this the disaster management cycle, because it includes the response as well as risk management. 2. These measures have been embodied in the Hyogo Framework for Action (UN ISDR 2005). 5

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19 3. Lessons for the Pre-Disaster Phase (Phase 1) The pre-disaster phase is, in many ways, the most important. This is because disasters tend to be concentrated in certain regions or countries, although their precise location, timing, or severity is not predictable. For this reason, a variety of measures should be taken in advance, notably in the areas of risk assessment, mitigation/prevention, disaster preparedness, and risk reduction. 1 Capacity building and training in all aspects of disaster management before a disaster strikes (Phase 1) can reduce the burden on disaster response support (Phase 2), make it more effective, and increase national ownership of the response process. An important role for international partners is to help strengthen the capacity of in-country institutions (including civil society actors) mandated to lead disaster preparedness and response, particularly at the local and community level, where first responses are made. Because national governments have the ultimate responsibility for leading responses to natural disasters, building national and local capacity is critical to promoting future effectiveness in this area. A multi-stakeholder review of responses to the Asian tsunami confirmed the importance of raising local capacity and engagement in the entire disaster management cycle and provided specific lessons (Box 1). A number of Bank project self-evaluations (ICRs) have commented on difficulties experienced in adopting such a proactive approach to reduce Box 1: Specific Lessons from Responses to the Asian Tsunami Disaster preparedness has been mainly focused on planning for emergency response, with a focus on tsunami-like disasters. So far, little attention or investment has gone into early warning, preventive, and mitigation measures or to recurring disasters such as floods and droughts. Effective disaster risk reduction interventions have the potential to strengthen grassroots institutions at the local and district levels, as well as to strengthen the interface between grassroots community organizations and local authorities. Thus the interventions can make local governance more inclusive and participatory. Although village-level hazard maps and preparedness plans Source: DEC have been developed, unless these lead to practical action aimed at mitigation measures, people will lose interest in keeping them updated. Already in Sri Lanka, communities have complained that they have identified local hazards that accentuate flooding, but the government and nongovernmental organizations have not made enough resources available for the communities to take corrective actions. Interventions that are based on strong partnership and links with local organizations, including in the private sector (banks/ financial and insurance companies), are far more likely to succeed than one-off asset distributions. 7

20 evaluation brief 16 the effects of future disasters, even though there is widespread agreement that this is essential. For example, in the case of the Mexico Disaster Risk Management Project (World Bank 2005b), even though the country had been repeatedly affected by disasters and mitigation measures could have offered major benefits, such measures had not been incorporated into the country s planning for sustainable development. To help strengthen national-level support for a proactive approach to disaster preparedness, the self-evaluation suggests increased attention to raising the capacity both of the development agency staff and of borrowers. Although there have been such cases of weak approaches, the Bank has elsewhere implemented varied and innovative capacity building and training activities. Even though they are conceptually part of the pre-disaster phase, these have often been introduced as part of disaster response packages (that is, in Phase 2) or as part of reconstruction programs (Phase 3). The sustainability of gains made through this type of activity can best be assured by feeding them into future Phase 1 programs. The Uruguay Foot and Mouth Disease Emergency Recovery Project (World Bank 2010d) provided strong and continuous education and training for public and private veterinary services, as well as for farmers and the general public to update the evolving sanitary threats. In the Ethiopia Productive Safety Nets Project (IEG 2011b), it was discovered that the delivery of training programs for existing staff should take into consideration the typically high turnover of rural civil servants. The Iran Bam Earthquake Emergency Reconstruction Project (World Bank 2010a) called for specific additional capacity building. It discovered the particular importance of the Bank rapidly understanding and serving the client s needs when there has been little previous interaction by preparing in advance a capacity-building program on the Bank s processes and procedures. The Sri Lanka Tsunami Emergency Recovery Program provided technical assistance and training for artisans and homeowners in safe construction techniques. Again, although these measures were designed as part of a disaster response and recovery program (Phase 2), they actually promoted better standards of housing that would be more resistant to any future disaster events, conceptually part of the pre-disaster phase. The Sri Lanka training not only built the capacity of homeowners and artisans to a level that enabled the predominantly homeowner-driven housing reconstruction program to achieve its targets, but it also raised the capacity of the local construction industry through ensuring additional skilled labor. The project also developed operational manuals, which the government officially adopted. These clarified the roles and responsibilities of the multiple players and partners involved in the program and facilitated smooth implementation. Some of the good practices in the preparation of the Operational Manuals are shown in Box 2. A balanced approach to disaster management is needed that can relate this area of activity to both sustainable development and poverty reduction. Evaluations by the World Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) support the importance of including such an approach in the formal support strategy for the country. The distribution of natural disasters is broadly predictable, with many countries facing recurring events. In such countries, it is important to clarify how linkages will be made among prevention, preparedness, response, and recovery, so that the assistance provided will bring benefits in the future, as well as respond to current needs. If attention is not paid to supporting overall natural disaster management processes within a sustainable development framework, it is likely that funds will be repeatedly required to address the same recovery needs. This calls for an enhanced emphasis within operations in such countries on pre-disaster activities (Phase 1) to help reduce the need for repetitive disaster response (Phase 2) activities. The Algeria Natural Hazard Vulnerability Reduction Project encountered such a situation, 8

21 Natural Disaster Response: Lessons from Evaluations of the World Bank and Others Box 2: Good Practices in the Preparation of Operational Manuals in Sri Lanka s Post-Disaster Situation Planning for participatory and inclusive preparation of the manuals, in the light of international practices, tailored to local needs. Clear advance clarification of the roles and responsibilities of multiple players and partners, including government institutions, civil society, and beneficiaries. Although an operational manual is finalized over a period of time, a set of immediate operating instructions can help in the early stages of program implementation. A binding implementation framework that mandates official adoption of the manual and monitoring mechanisms/periodic audits for ensuring compliance. The manual remains alive in terms of being responsive to emerging requirements and localized solutions within the confines of the program policy framework. Source: World Bank 2009g. in which inadequate risk reduction and mitigation measures made disaster response a much larger task than necessary (World Bank 2007a). The ICR reports that the impact of the torrential rains of November 2001 on Algeria s urban areas would have been much less dramatic had the government taken measures to reduce the risks of flooding and implemented its existing regulations concerning urban development. With Bank support, the government had already implemented appropriate risk reduction measures in the greater Algiers metropolitan area. However, these measures were also needed in other urban areas, for which development plans should have included appropriate measures for preventing severe damage from natural disasters, including earthquakes and floods. Furthermore, annual budgets of agencies in charge of risk prevention and management should have included adequate and well-identified amounts for natural disaster prevention. The government could have built on the achievements of Bank-supported projects to raise the awareness of local authorities and technicians regarding the benefits of preventive measures and to encourage their inclusion in local development plans and activities. The failure to support a balanced approach to disaster management has also been flagged as an important issue in an evaluation conducted by the IDB (IDB 2004). The evaluation found the following: An imbalance of instruments across the disaster risk cycle. Even though prevention is strongly emphasized in several documents, emergency and post-disaster activities still receive much broader attention. A mismatch between IDB programs and activities and actual country priorities, incentive structures, and implementation capacities. As a result, countries are not able to put into practice the new approaches developed with assistance from support programs. An imbalance of countries priorities concentrating on sustainable development and on poverty reduction and neglecting disaster prevention, even in severely prone regions. The IDB evaluation concludes that the culture of rehabilitation and reconstruction that has prevailed in the countries affected by natural disasters as well as in the institutions that finance those activities and in bilateral aid should shift to facilitate preparation and execution of prevention and mitigation programs. IEG s note on the response to the Pakistan floods (IEG 2010b) also points out, for example, that some flood programs have focused too heavily on rebuilding infrastructure and not enough on better adaptation and preparedness for the future through complementary investments, such as flood management, cropping pattern adjustments, rural finance, enhancing capacities of water users groups, and early warning systems. There are trade-offs between the need for urgency, which might be met by simply replacing what was lost, and the desire to build back better, which may take longer but has 9

22 evaluation brief 16 greater disaster risk reduction, mitigation, and long-term development results. Several projects and programs have taken the opportunity to improve on prior physical as well as organization structures, systems, and processes. The IEG note indicates, for example, that in Pakistan, World Bank flood response projects have also focused on reducing vulnerability and building farm resilience to reduce the effects of subsequent flooding, an approach that has increasingly appeared in national strategies. Similarly, a current International Development Association (IDA) Mali Agricultural Productivity Project (World Bank 2010b) has a subcomponent to modernize farming systems and supply chains that is designed to contribute to reduction of damage from future flooding. One of its aims is to improve ecosystem resilience through better rangeland management and increased carbon sequestration 2 (above and below ground) using a range of technologies that enrich soils with organic carbon and improve biomass production and vegetation cover. Notes 1. These measures have been embodied in the Hyogo Framework for Action (UN ISDR 2005). 2. Carbon sequestration describes long-term storage of carbon dioxide or other forms of carbon to either mitigate or defer global warming. It has been proposed as a way to slow the atmospheric and marine accumulation of greenhouse gases, which are released by burning fossil fuels. 10

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