11/19/16

Through all of the will he or won’t he conversations that
take place regarding the return of Yoenis Cespedes the talk inevitably turns to
replacing his power should he depart.
After all, he’s a 30+ HR guy with 90+ RBI game changing potential. The conventional wisdom says that the team
will revert to an offensive mountain of Everest proportions without Cespedes or an equivalent in his place.

For those of us whose short term memory has not been adversely
affected by either dementia or what’s now legal to smoke in many jurisdictions,
do you remember the team that beat us handily in the 2015 World Series? The Kansas City Royals had some excellent
pitching (though some would argue not quite up to the Mets’ level of dominance,
a killer bullpen (edge to them), but not a single hitter in their lineup with
over 22 home runs. What struck me even
more when analyzing their success was the flip side of the offense – only two
batters who eclipsed the 100 strikeout mark for the entire season (and just
barely – Eric Hosmer and 108 and Kendrys Morales at 103). Dig a little deeper and you’ll see that the
big four in their lineup – Hosmer, Morales, Mike Moustakas and Alex Gordon –
averaged more than 50 walks apiece.

Now let’s take a look at some of the numbers from the 2016
NY Mets squad of players. You had three
players at the 30 home run mark, 2 more in the 20s and four players with over
100 strikeouts. It’s no secret the team’s
offense lived and died by the long ball.
The leading base stealer was Jose Reyes with a mere 9. Compare that to KC’s Lorenzo Cain with 28 and
Alcides Escobar with 17.

What struck me is the possibility that should Cespedes
depart for greener pastures and bank accounts elsewhere, rather than trying to
replicate what he did, instead should the Mets look at it as an opportunity to
reinvent themselves into a more balanced, high OBP club with not only some
power but also with the ability to move runners along, take the extra base and
test the opposing teams throwing arms?

Towards that end, rather than focusing on the guys like
Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista, Andrew McCutchen and other bonafide sluggers,
who’s out there that gets on base, works the count, steals some bases and
generally disrupts the pitcher’s concentration the same way the Royals did it
to the Mets? Building on that formula, amassing
a killer bullpen that takes pressure off the returning infirmary squad in the
starting rotation will complete the Royalfication of the Mets.

Granted, the players who are known for high OBP are not the “sexy”
names that make people’s heads swoon with their potential. Some of them don’t even get All-Star
consideration. But take the case of
someone like Colorado’s D.J. LeMahieu.
Ever since he became a regular in 2013 his batting average and OBP has
steadily risen to where he now sits near the top of the pack with a .416 clip
for getting on base. Do you want to know
how that compares to the Mets? Their
primary leadoff hitter, Curtis Granderson, only managed to achieve a .335
mark.

Now until you saw the World Series, you probably didn’t even
know who Jose Ramirez of the Indians was, but all he did in 2016 was provide a
slash line of .312/11/76 while providing an OBP of .363.

Crusty veteran and perennial thorn in the Mets’ side, Yadier
Molina, also posted a .360 OBP last year.
Granted he’ll turn 35 this season, but might he provide a nice bridge
for a few years to allow a Tomas Nido to develop? 2017 is the last year of his contract ($14
million and there’s a $15 million option or $2 million buyout for 2018). They have a guy ready to take his place named
Carson Kelly who won a minor league Rawlings defensive award (similar to Gold
Glove). Maybe it’s worth a call.

Another player with whom you are most definitely familiar is
the San Francisco Giants’ Buster Posey who, in a down year, still provided
.288/14/80 with a .362 OBP. He’s
eclipsed the .400 mark in OBP during his career as well. Now there’s not likely any way to lure the
face of the Giants franchise to the Mets, but wouldn’t that solve a few
problems simultaneously – upgrading the catching and having a hitter who is not
a human fan? His contract is for 5 more years at $21 million per year -- less than what Cespedes would cost (and he's younger).

Even role guys like Eduardo Nunez who kicked around the
Yankees and Twins until finally settling with the Giants was able to produce a
solid first full season of .288/16/67 with 40 SBs. Think what that kind of contribution could do
to the Mets offense. Hernan Perez of the Brewers followed a similar
career trajectory with parallel results.

I’m not advocating that the Mets necessarily target any of
these players but I wanted to get the idea out there that there are multiple
ways to win games that don’t necessarily involve putting the ball over the wall. Other teams have seemingly found room for
these productive types of hitters and base runners, yet the Mets seem to be
continuing down that all-or-nothing path once again.

I agree with you Reese. I believe the best way to build this Mets lineup playing 81 games at Citifield each should emulate the early 80's cardinals. Speed, OBP and defense is the way it should go. Yes Homeruns are sexy but speed disrupting the pitchers thinking while on the mound is even sexier....I still want Cespedes but feel they should target Fowler no matter what. The Granderson project should be done and traded away for whatever we can get.

Zozo,I like Fowler and he certainly had a great year last season in that loaded lineup, but he is not a real speed player, he has not shown great defense when you look at his record over several years, and he is at an age where those skills will erode. He will be overpaid by someone, hopefully not the Mets. If they land the hammer in LF, or another power RH bat if he leaves, they should be ok. Sure they can use more speed, but by spotting Reyes and Lagares they can get a little bit. I'd also keep Grandy over Bruce since even though he is older he is more athletic.

I believe he is better suited at lead off or the 2 hole than Granderson ever was. He can steal you 15 or more bases a year but the most important part is he can take the extra base. Where I feel Granderson is a base to base type of player and never showing enough speed to take that extra bag. Plus he can play Centerfield better than anyone on our team not named Lagares.

Since you used the KC comparison, did you notice how they did this season? The Mets, with all their injuries, still made the WC game, while the Royals were one-season wonders. Fowler is a decent player who would cost us a draft pick and high salary, while blocking off Conforto, Nimmo and/or Lag. Forget him!

A little or more patience is in order. We're one year away from payroll relief and the arrival of Smith, Rosario and others. Nimrod has been a high-OBP player since we drafted him, and Smith has been as well. No need to act in haste.

Just a question for all Mack's Mets reader's I was wondering if the effect of the NFL's concussion issue hasn't already affected MLB. When you look around baseball there's an amazingly large number of under 25 year old's from the 3 B's in Boston to Trout, Harper, Jones, Machado, both Seager's, Correa, Lindor, Kiermaier, Yelich, Herrera, Diaz, Villar, T.Turner ( a Mack pick), Bryant, Baez, Russell, Pederson, Story, Piscotty, Myers and I haven't even mentioned pitcher's so any comment's.

I sound like a broken record, but you have to remember who fills out the lineup card. Did Justin Turner get a starting gig when he was here? Does Wilmer Flores or TJ Rivera or any other newcomer truly expect to get 550 ABs? Naturally the over-30 club will be penciled in for that, but what if you are Michael Conforto and happen to have a bad few games?