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Wilson Mizner is credited with the advice to
be nice to people on your way up because you will meet them on your way down.
This may apply to us as individuals, but not to countries. We are struck by
the fact that creditor nations are acting like creditors and debtor nations are
acting like debtors, no matter their history. The picture to the left …

FAQ: 7 Questions and Answers about Greece and the Referendum
Reviewed by Marc Chandler
on
June 30, 2015
Rating: 5

Today is the end of the quarter so we will get the IMF's COFER report on currency reserves from Q1. This is when the dollar was very strong. We should therefore expect the dollar value of reserves to fall and for the dollar's share to rise purely on valuation effects. The Federal Reserve will update its measure of the real broad trade wei…

Some Miscellaneous Thoughts about the FX Price Action
Reviewed by Marc Chandler
on
June 30, 2015
Rating: 5

The markets remain off-kilter. The dollar has recouped a little
of the ground lost yesterday. Reports in a Greek paper that Tsipras may
be reconsidering Juncker's proposal may prevent a deeper pullback in the euro,
which found a bid near $1.1135 after approaching $1.1280 in yesterday's
spectacular reversal. Over the next two days, there…

Here is a clip of my CNBC appearance from earlier today. After gapping lower in Asia, the euro was gradually recovering, and later in the North American session, it picked up momentum and traded around $1.1280 from near $1.0950 earlier in Asia.

It is tempting to read some fundamental development into the price action, but the other asset markets, …

Greece's economy is too small to make much of a difference to the global economy, or even the European economy. It was small before the crisis, and now it is at least a quarter smaller. The channels of contagion are not to be found there or with its trade ties. For all practical purposes, Greece is a small and relatively closed economy. The…

Great Graphic: IMF and Sovereign Exposures to Greece
Reviewed by Marc Chandler
on
June 29, 2015
Rating: 5

(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin) EM assets are starting off the weak on a soft note, driven by risk off sentiment stemming from Greek developments. The weekend PBOC easing measures had little impact, with China stocks adding to their recent losses. With another strong US jobs report expected on Thursday, we suspect EM will continue to trade with…

The markets initially responded dramatically to the weekend new of the
Greek referendum, capital controls and an extended bank holiday. The
markets quickly stabilized and have recovered a bit in the European
morning. The Swiss National Bank confirmed intervention to limit the
franc rise. Meanwhile, the cut in China's interest rates and re…