What the H – – – is Going On With Gold These Days?

What’s going on with the price of gold? It would be nice if gold always went up in a crisis but short term it can get just as burnt as everything else. [It begs the question, however,] if gold is the great anti-asset, the thing to hold when everything else is in collapse, why is it now trading…[below $1,700 and] not $2,000? What is next for gold? Words: 765

So asks Merryn Somerset Webb (www.moneyweek.com) in edited excerpts from her original article*.

Lorimer Wilson, editor of www.FinancialArticleSummariesToday.com (A site for sore eyes and inquisitive minds) and www.munKNEE.com (Your Key to Making Money!) has further edited ([ ]), abridged (…) and reformatted (some sub-titles and bold/italics emphases) the article below for the sake of clarity and brevity to ensure a fast and easy read. The author’s views and conclusions are unaltered and no personal comments have been included to maintain the integrity of the original article. Please note that this paragraph must be included in any article re-posting to avoid copyright infringement.

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Webb goes on to explain, in part:

[There are] all sorts of reasons…[why gold is trading so low]:

Panic begins [and] traders deleverage in a flight to liquidity (cash and the US dollar in particular) and everything gets hammered in the process. In 2008 this effect on gold (it fell 30%) was pretty temporary.

When traders get margin calls (i.e. they have to stump up extra cash as collateral for some of their trading positions), they tend to raise the cash by selling profitable positions rather than non-profitable ones (who wants to book a loss?). Gold has had an amazing run so far this year so it makes sense for panicking people to take their profits on it in a hurry.

Then there are exchange traded funds (ETFs). The sudden market understanding of the risks the global economy faces means that all the industrial metals have fallen fast (platinum, palladium, copper etc). These metals are often traded in packages or indices along with gold. So when they are sold the gold price falls along with them.

I am still a happy holder of gold…The only thing that could really mean that it was all over for gold would be a long period of deflation in the west and, while I’m sympathetic to the arguments for that, I am not convinced of them. Bernanke…[has not] turned the printing presses on [yet again]…but I bet he still has them primed and ready to go. The same goes for the Bank of England and the ECB.

The price of gold is a function of the market’s trust in central banks to protect the value of currencies…and…that has [not yet] changed…

As I see it, worsening financial crises lead initially to lower gold prices which are followed by some form of government intervention to alleviate the crises and that action, in turn, eventually results in renewed appreciation in the price of gold. The basic steps in such a transition are really quite straightforward. Let me explain. Words: 686

The current volatility in the precious metals market doesn’t necessarily indicate a change in secular direction. [In fact,] if today’s gold price was to rise by the same degree over the next 14 months [as it did from the beginning of 1979 into 1980, it would hit $4294/ozt. by Jan 2013! Let me explain.] Words: 420

Early this year we suggested a 50% rise in Gold to $1860 – $1,920 into mid-year. Now, we see the Gold tsunami realizing an approximate 100% rise that will crest at $3,000+ into the middle of 2012, drowning any doubters in its wake. Below are a number of factors that support that view. Words: 1250

Since the fundamentals still point to gold’s long-term viability… why [are] investors responding by selling gold…? I was always told not to look a gift horse in the mouth… [so] take advantage of the dip. Words: 880

Over the past few years, pretty much every investor has become familiar with gold. The shiny precious metal has surged in price and has managed to hold strong while broad indexes have slipped, highlighting its appeal as a diversification agent and safe haven investment. This has prompted many investors to ramp up their allocations to the space in order to take advantage of these favorable trends and lead their portfolios to broad gains…[but] there are a number of other issues that investors need to be aware of when considering allocating capital to the space, as there are several reasons to avoid the precious metal from an investment perspective. Below, we highlight seven reasons for why investors may want to temper their expectations for the metal and consider a more diversified approach that doesn’t include such a large allocation to the ‘barbaric relic’. Words: 2030

We are at an important crossroads in this commodities bull market,,,[where] even the most fearless bulls are tempted to give up – to sell out of their positions and consider themselves lucky that they were able to be along for the ride and to escape with any profits at all – but I have posted a chart below to help remind you of the real danger in “getting out” now. Words: 350

Why have gold and silver have been selling off? The answer is very simple. There is a strong correlation between a strong dollar and weak commodities. The dollar is no different than anything on earth – it will always follow the path of least resistance. As the dollar grows stronger commodities sell off or become cheaper [- and gold could go down as low as $1,500/ozt. and silver down to perhaps as low as $21/ozt. before this is all over. Let me explain further.] Words: 650

155 analysts have gone public, to date, in maintaining that gold will eventually go to a parabolic peak price of at least $2,500/ozt.+ before the bubble bursts. Of those 155 a total of 140 believe gold will reach at least $3,000/ozt., 101 see gold achieving a price of at least $5,000/ozt. and 20 maintain that gold will reach a parabolic peak price of $10,000 per troy ounce or more. Take a look here at who is projecting what, by when and why. Words: 832

If there is one thing we’ve learned about gold in recent years – and recent days – it is this: gold is not a haven investment… There are many theories about gold’s correction. [Let’s take a look.] Words: 781

When you just consider the downgrade of U.S. debt, the jobs problem, the housing situation, the European bank concerns and their debt crisis, the negative outlook for the global economy, not to mention that the Fed will likely seek new measures to help the economy, we just don’t see gold coming down any time soon, other than having a normal downward correction [as currently is the case. Let us show you why.] Words: 1102

Gold is in the second phase of a Bump-and-Run Reversal Top pattern, which typically occurs when excessive speculation drives prices up steeply, and is now at a critical juncture where substantially lower prices could be realized. Let me explain. Words: 339

We are in an environment where gold bugs boldly proclaim that gold is going to the moon, and gold bears strongly protest that gold is in a bubble. At such a heated stage, this article attempts to answer the question, “What is a prudent investor to do now?” Words: 575

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