I don't think any of the current U.S. girls is a serious medal contender at the Olympics. But it's the Olympics, nerves are playing in and if someone falters, I can see either Caroline or Rachael sneak in there(along with a couple of other skaters who have the same potential).

As for nationals, if both Caroline and Rachael perform their average it'll be hard for anyone to get on that team. Because their average is quite impressive and something they can really count on. However, ice remains slippery, so who knows.

I would not conclude anything from the results of dthe team competition but I am sure all those who were in the compeition tried their best. I would say that looking at the icenetwork when they come out will give you a better idea of how the skaters are progressing.

Meantime the yutube of Caroline is looking good for her. She has almost a year to be a contender.

Yeah but you could also take the derivative, Mathman. I'd say Kim is on an upward slope and Asada on a downward slope, considering both this and last season and maybe even longer. And... wasn't Asada planning to change coaches? That's usually not a good sign...

If the Olympics were in 2011 I would say yes definitely. Caroline needs time to work on her basics skills. She has the tech but needs the basics. Lets not forget that the other ladies have longevity experience so Caroline is at a disadvantage in that respect. IMO Mao and Kim were outstanding athletes at a young age (but this is not the norm) and over the last two years they have perfected their overall skating skills which is reflected in their huge scores.
Joannie took much longer to get there and Miki's skating skills have improved
dramatically over the last two years. 2014 will be Caroline, Rachel, et al
time to shine.

That said, I never count out anyone for an Olympic medal. I have been following skating for a very long time and the one thng I know is that no one has a lock on a medal.

ITA. I think people forget that Caroline and Mirai are nearly a full Olympic cycle younger than Yu-Na and Mao, and a whole lot younger than skaters like Carolina and Joannie.

Caroline will not be an OGM in 2010, barring a parting of the seas. Since her idol is Kwan, I hope that she will stick around for a long time to come, long enough for her to truly shine. If she loves skating enough and continues to improve, I can see her being a major contender for the U.S. in the years to come, leading up to 2014. She seems to have the focus and determination to get there. Furthermore, Caroline's chances will double if Yu-Na and Mao retire after 2010.

The same applies to the other budding skaters. Rachael has already strongly hinted in a journal entry that she is still very young now, and might continue all the way up to 2014. With skaters like Flatt and Zhang, I'd say the future of U.S. ladies' FS is looking very rosy post-2010.

Carolina/ Joannie I think will retire, same with Ando. But Caroline/Mirai/Rachael are only two years younger than Asada/Kim. That's not really much of a difference.

This being said there will be retirements and when the dust settles after the retirments the US girls will be in the thick of things.

Caroline and Mirai are born in 1993. Yu-Na and Mao are born in 1990. Last time I checked, that amounts to three years, just one year short of an Olympic cycle. Rachael is born in 1992, I believe, so that makes her two years younger than Yu-Na and Mao.

I mean, Denis Ten is the same age as Mirai and Caroline, and everyone is predicting great things for him in 2014. And here we're talking about how well Caroline, Mirai, et al. will do in 2010. I'd say the American baby ballerinas have already done incredibly well given their ages. The Americans have so much young talent to choose from that there'll surely be at least one major contender who will emerge come 2014.

Caroline and Mirai are born in 1993. Yu-Na and Mao are born in 1990. Last time I checked, that amounts to three years, just one year short of an Olympic cycle. Rachael is born in 1992, I believe, so that makes her two years younger than Yu-Na and Mao.

I forgot or blocked out the fact that Kim/Asada turned 16 in an Olympic year but were three months too young. It's too painful to think about how good they could have potentially done in Torino. (I think one would have medaled)

No it is not but like I said in my prior post Asada/Kim are expectional athletes.

When talking generally about the ages of non-athletes, I'd say that two years is not much of a difference between ages. But in sport, especially in a sport like figure skating, where a year's results can vary so much from the next, where unpredictability reigns supreme, and where even a few months can bring about so many physical changes and injuries (the young Americans probably aren't even over puberty), I'd say even a year's difference in age means a lot in FS.

When talking generally about the ages of non-athletes, I'd say that two years is not much of a difference between ages. But in sport, especially in a sport like figure skating, where a year's results can vary so much from the next, where unpredictability reigns supreme, and where even a few months can bring about so many physical changes and injuries (the young Americans probably aren't even over puberty), I'd say even a year's difference in age means a lot in FS.

Well I don't know. I think Kim/Asada at 16 are better than Flatt/Zhang at 16. But Rachael/Caroline could improve more. And who knows Kim/Asada could lose some skills.

Well I don't know. I think Kim/Asada at 16 are better than Flatt/Zhang at 16. But Rachael/Caroline could improve more. And who knows Kim/Asada could lose some skills.

Asada was better last year I think.

Maybe. But Yu-Na and Mao were inferior skaters at age 16 compared to the skaters they are now, and back when they were 16, the really strict rules on edge deductions, downgrades and the like hadn't been implemented yet. A skater like Mao might not have done as well as she did at a young age if these draconian rules were in effect back then.

I agree, and I bet it will be someone (I don't know who yet) who has not been mentioned on this thread.

I agree. I thought Meissner and Hughes would be the two US skaters to lead us to 2010 and it turned out neither of them had any staying power whatsoever. Now we've got a whole bunch of young skaters who aren't quite there yet, and the timing is so unfortunate.