FILE - In this Oct. 26, 1991, file photo, Minnesota Twins pitcher Jack Morris, left, celebrates after the Twins won the World Series championship by defeating the Atlanta Braves 1-0 in 10 innnigs in Game 7 in Minneapolis, Minn., Sunday, Oct. 26, 1991. Morris pitched all 10 innings in the game and was named Most Valuable Player of the series. (AP Photo/Mark Duncan, File)

Minnesota Twins pitcher Jack Morris, center, leads the charge out of the dugout as the Twins win the World Series with a 1-0 victory over the Atlanta Braves in Game 7 at the Metrodome in Minneapolis on Oct. 27, 1991. Morris pitched a 10-inning shutout, landing the Twins their second World Series title. (Pioneer Press: Jean Pieri)
(Pioneer Press: Jean Pieri)

Should the St. Paul native win election to the National Baseball Hall of Fame when this year’s class is announced Wednesday, Morris would become just the third inductee to reach the sport’s Valhalla on his 15th and final attempt.

The only others to slip in under the wire are Jim Rice (2009) and Red Ruffing (1967). Dazzy Vance was elected on his 16th try in 1955, but that was under a different set of voting rules.

Should the Baseball Writers’ Association of America reject the legendary workhorse right-hander and 1991 Twins World Series hero, Morris would join Gil Hodges as the only players to surpass 50 percent in the vote total and ultimately fail to gain admission via the writers’ vote.

“You have to be brutally honest with Morris’ candidacy and avoid the hagiography,” Sports Illustrated’s Tom Verducci wrote recently. “He was a plowhorse who lived up to the demands of an ace like nobody else in his transitional era. He was a manager’s dream for fulfilling that role.”

Morris, 58, fell 42 votes short of the required 75 percent a year ago, when he garnered 67.7 percent of the BBWAA vote. Only former Houston Astros star Craig Biggio received a higher percentage (68.2) as the writers failed to send anyone to Cooperstown for the first time since 1996.

Phil Niekro, who hit the 68.3 percent mark in 1996, saw his support jump 12 percent as he gained election the following year. Morris supporters hope a similar dynamic helps push the 254-game winner over the top.

There are several problems, however, with that line of thinking, starting with an exceptionally strong class of first-time candidates led by a pair of 300-game winners: former Atlanta Braves stalwarts Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine.

Maddux, the winningest pitcher on the planet (355 victories) and winner of four Cy Young Awards, is considered a virtual lock, and Glavine isn’t far behind. BBWAA voters have elected just one career-long starting pitcher over the past 14 voting cycles: Twins TV analyst Bert Blyleven in 2011.

Fellow first-timers Frank Thomas and Mike Mussina also are expected to receive broad support, and that doesn’t even take into account Jeff Kent, who hit more home runs than any second baseman in history.

Another problem for Morris: All five of those first-timers compiled more Wins Above Replacement during their careers than the former Highland Park High School product and ex-St. Paul Saint.

Morris’ career WAR is just 44.1, according to the formula at Baseball-Reference.com. That ranks Morris 22nd among the 36th retired players listed on this year’s ballot. It also places him well behind another first-time candidate, Kenny Rogers (51.4), who isn’t expected to receive much support.

On the other end, Morris threw a whopping 175 complete games and lasted eight innings or more 248 times, the latter an American League record since the designated hitter was instituted in 1973. He also went a combined 7-0 with a 2.05 earned-run average in the postseasons of 1984 and 1991, when he led the Detroit Tigers and the Twins, respectively, to the last World Series titles for either franchise.

Morris wasn’t as dominant in his other two trips to the postseason, going a combined 0-4 with a 7.26 ERA for the ’87 Tigers (losing to the Twins) and ’92 Toronto Blue Jays, who won their first World Series.

However, he started Game 1 in all but one of his seven series openers. The only exception came in ’87, when Doyle Alexander got the nod after going 9-0 down the stretch; Morris had beaten the Blue Jays in the division-clinching Game No. 161.

The anti-Morris set will point out his career 3.90 ERA is higher than Ruffing’s 3.80, currently the highest for any pitcher enshrined in Cooperstown. Morris’ ERA was 3.73 until he closed out his 18-year big-league run with two miserable seasons with Toronto and Cleveland (5.91 combined ERA).

Advanced metrics also tell us Morris’ adjusted ERA was 105 for his career, meaning he was just 5 percent above league average. Morris’ adjusted ERA was better than 101 just once in his final seven seasons; he posted a 125 mark in his 18-win Twins cameo in 1991.

“That’s not a hall of fame pitcher,” analyst Jay Jaffe wrote in an article for SI.com last month. “(Morris) simply didn’t prevent runs in the manner of an elite pitcher. For all of his extra wins and postseason success, Morris’ case rests on outmoded barometers and a distortion of the value of one shining moment.”

BBWAA rules allow voters to list a maximum of 10 players each year, and even Morris sympathizers could have a tough time finding room for him with time running out. Jeff Bagwell, Mike Piazza and Tim Raines each surpassed 50 percent in last year’s voting and seem to be gaining momentum.

Statistical outliers Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds remain stuck below 40 percent because of their past legal battles in the wake of allegations they used performance-enhancing drugs, but hall voters still could elect three or more inductees for just the fifth time since 1955.

Even if Morris gets passed over yet again, he could still gain admission via the Veterans’ Committee. However, that 16-member body — which includes Twins special assistants Rod Carew and Paul Molitor — won’t convene again for another three years after giving the nod to a trio of former managers last month: Tony La Russa, Bobby Cox and Joe Torre.

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