LSU’s rushing attack pounded Florida last week to the tune of 175 yards and 4.5 touchdowns, sucking the life out of the Gators in the second half. But no matter what do you, don’t call LSU the hammer and Florida the nail. Jeremy Hill reached the century mark on the ground for the fourth time in six games this season, and the Tigers are averaging nearly 200 yards per game on the ground and five yards per carry in 2013.

Ole Miss’ run defense has given up the third most yards per game in the SEC (186.7) and the fourth most yards per carry (4.6) in the league in 2013. Now, the Rebels have probably played the toughest first six games in America (and soon-to-be the toughest first seven games), so those numbers are skewed a little bit, but the Rebels are feeling the effects of that schedule with plenty of defenders licking their wounds.

If the Tigers can run on Florida, they can run on anybody. LSU gets the pretty substantial edge here.

Avantage: LSU

LSU passing offense versus Ole Miss passing defense

For the first time this season Zach Mettenberger didn’t look like a Heisman Trophy candidate last week. However, that was more by design than anything else? Why unnecessarily risk putting the ball in the air when you can assuredly grind out a low-scoring victory? On just nine completions, Mett still threw for 152 yards, an awesome 16.9 yards per completion. So the big play is still there when needed.

Ole Miss’ pass defense has held up fairly well considering he teams they’ve played. The Rebels are fifth in the SEC with 212.3 pass yards per game allowed, and five touchdowns allowed is tied for third best in the league. Not bad considering they’ve faced the defending Heisman Trophy winner and the two-time defending national champ at the quarterback position. Where Ole Miss’ defense has lacked, however, is in the pass rush with only six sacks on the year.

Except for a fluke wet ball last week, Mett has done an awesome job holding not turning the ball over. His consistency (and possibly better than consistency versus a hurting defense) will win this category for LSU.

Advantage: LSU

Ole Miss rushing offense versus LSU rushing defense

Featuring an NFL scat back in Jeff Scott, Ole Miss’ rushing attack is very inconsistent. But effective. You may corral Scott nine times out of 10, but the one time you don’t, he can take it the distance from anywhere. Ask Vandy how that worked out late in the fourth quarter of the season’s opening Thursday night.

LSU will be tasked with making sure that one time out of 10 doesn’t happen. The Tigers have done a pretty good job of that, holding opponents to 4.0 yards per carry.

LSU has given up only one run of 30 yards or more this season, so I’m betting that it won’t happen this week and giving LSU the advantage even though Scott averages 8.2 yards every time he touches the ball. But don’t sleep on little No. 3.

Advantage: LSU

Ole Miss passing offense versus LSU passing defense

Riding a three-game losing streak, Ole Miss’ offense is searching for an identity right now. The Rebs split reps between Bo Wallace and Barry Brunetti, and largely, both played well versus A&M’s porous defense. The question is: Which quarterback presents a bigger challenge for LSU. In year’s past, the dual threat QB like Brunetti has given LSU more trouble. However, Aaron Murray, a drop back passer like Wallace, gave LSU’s defense its biggest problems this year.

Like their quarterbacks, Ole Miss’ offense as a whole is very up and down. It’s amazing that the same unit that scored 44 at Texas was held to zero two weeks later in Tuscaloosa.

Statistically, LSU’s pass defense is great with just 196.3 pass yards allowed and only seven pass TDs allowed (four in one game by Murray) However, we’ve seen how much they can struggle at times – namely a 60 minute stretch (Auburn second half, Georgia whole game, Mississippi State first half). Both units have been inconsistent, so I can actually see this matchup going definitively both ways. I’ll push

Push

Special teams

Each team has among the most dangerous returnmen in the country. You just read all about Jeff Scott, but LSU’s Odell Beckham Jr. is no slouch either. Both have return touchdowns this year, and Ole Miss certainly remembers OBJ’s 89-yard punt return… in the fourth quarter… with LSU behind… taking the ball up the east sideline…. spurring an LSU come-from-behind victory… bringing back shades of Billy Cannon in 1959. Fiction writers would have thrown it out.

LSU has the slight edge in the kicking game as Colby Delahoussaye is a perfect eight-for-eight, while Ole Miss’ Andrew Ritter is seven-for-nine and he’s had a PAT blocked.

Punting difference is negligible.

Too close to call, so I’ll push.

Push

Coaching

Three weeks ago, it looked like Hugh Freeze was well on his way up the ranks of collegiate coaching. Three losses later, and Freeze is being restrained from going at fans heckling him. Oh, how quickly things can change. Freeze is still a good coach, and he certainly had LSU on the ropes a year ago in Tiger Stadium.

But he doesn’t have the assistants Les Miles gets to work with on a weekly basis. Sorry for sounding like a broken record.

Advantage: LSU

Prediction

The LSU/Ole Miss contest has been one of the more difficult ones to predict in recent years. LSU has largely been the heavy favorite recently. Sometimes it’s a romp in beyond embarrassing fashion like two year ago by the Grove. Other years, the Rebels gave LSU everything they could handle like narrow wins in 2006, 2010 and 2012 in Tiger Stadium. Then there’s 2009 when Ole Miss shocked LSU in the infamous Jordan Jefferson spike game.

This year’s Ole Miss team looked like it could be a legitimate threat in the West when it won at Vandy and Texas in the first three weeks. Then it failed to score at Alabama, made a blowout look close at Auburn and couldn’t outscore A&M as part of a three-game losing streak.

So just like recent Ole Miss/LSU history, Ole Miss on a game-by-game basis seems to be a crapshoot.

Because LSU should be able to move the ball on the Rebels, and outscore them if need be, I’m taking the Tigers, and I feel pretty good about it. Ole Miss just has too many injury concerns and not enough of a pass rush to slow down what can be a nationally great offense when LSU takes off the conservative hat.

But I’ve got this awful feeling that Ole Miss’ offense shows up again and keeps the game in question for far too long.

A blowout is possible. But so is a classic Magnolia Bowl shootout, and I’m going with the latter.

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