The Strategic Issues & International Relations Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to India's security environment, her strategic outlook on global affairs and as well as the effect of international relations in the Indian Subcontinent. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.

Already in AKP connected papers, headlines are screaming "Go tell the infidels [Kurds], the Army of the prophet Muhammad is back!". Obviously, this is meant for a domestic audience and focused at the Kurdish movement in general including Kurdish mainstream parties in turkey like HDP (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peoples%2 ... ty_(Turkey) along with PKK and PUK (Iraqi Kurdistan party).

In Turkish propaganda, Kurds are often portrayed as Atheists because most Kurdish parties and movements like PKK, YPG, HDP are left wing.

UlanBatori wrote:I don't understand the ISIS prisoners thing. Aren't they cretins that came THROUGH AND OUT OF Turkey? So they are basically mercenaries for Turkey? However I see no evidence that they hold any brief for Erdogan & Co. If they are not, and they fear Turkey, then the solution is obvious. That is how the Soviets won the battle of Leningrad. Sent out thousands of political prisoners each with a rifle and one bullet (that was all they could afford) to rush the German lines. The Kurds standing back will shoot any that try to return, so they have no choice. The Turkish armored columns will get shredded. So far I have not seen any evidence of the fighting mettle or enthusiasm of the New Ottoman Armies. Much of their competent officer corps are getting buggered in Erdogan's concentration camps - or have been shot already. I think this is Erdogan's equivalent of MBS' Yemen experience.

The prisoners that that the Kurds hold are ISIS fighters from all over the world. Most countries take the point of view that if you joined ISIS you gave up your citizenship and hence don't take you back. So these have been languishing in Kurdish prisons.

They are common enemies of the Turks and the Kurds and the US and the Syrian government, and of the nations of their origination.

Perhaps these can be decimated in a Kurdish-Turkish cross fire. But they could have been executed too. Why not? We are told "The leftist ideology embraced by the Syrian Kurds rejects the death penalty".

A bad situation in Northeast Syria is about to get much worse. Sources tell me that US officials have just informed the Syrian Kurds that Turkey is likely to attack on air and ground in next 24 hours. The US will do nothing. Targets are Tal Abyad and Ras al Ayn....

...Ironically Tal Abyad was the main supply route for ISIS in 2014-15 through an open border from Turkey. Turkey refused repeated requests from US to shut border. That's a big reason why US decided to partner with SDF, which took the town in the summer of 2015.

...I'm also told that Turkish attack appears coordinated with the Russians. Russian-backed forces are mobilizing to invade the Kurdish area from the south — towards Tabqa and other spots. Meanwhile, ISIS is mobilizing sleeper cells in Raqqa and attacks have taken place tonight.

The Turkish Armed Forces, together with the Syrian National Army, just launched #OperationPeaceSpring against PKK/YPG and Daesh terrorists in northern Syria. Our mission is to prevent the creation of a terror corridor across our southern border, and to bring peace to the area.

Another example of #Turkey's-backed Jihadis against #US-backed #SDF as they prepare to invade NE #Syria, amid shameful @UN #US #EU silence. He literally says as he waves his sword:" You will see the worse..". The second says: "We will go to paradise, God willing."

The Turkish army is big, but largely conscript based. Many competent officers have been purged and the criteria for promotion has been adherence to Islamist values, not professional competence. Still, the Kurdish forces will not be able to stand up to the Turks in a conventional fight. If they fight an unconventional war inside Turkey, the country's economy will collapse - not just because of the higher military expenditure, but loss of whatever little investor confidence there is. For Assad and Russia, a large part of the country which is currently Kurdish controlled, becomes weakened. my view is the kurds will either have to cut a deal with Assad/Russia and get their protection in return for some autonomy, or get slaughtered.

I think the plan is to administer a dose of reality to the Kurds. As James Bond said:

"U live only twice. Once when u r bornAnd once when Death stares u in the face".

Kurdbrains might get working, to quit posturing and recognize that their only hope for security is the legitimate govt of Syria. The report that "Russian-backed" armor is cranking up may be accurate, and that they will roll into these towns WHICH ARE IN SYRIA (!!!!!!!!) but it will be up to the Kurds whether to try fighting them when they are getting pulverized by the Turks who want to kill them. As for Al Nusra, I think Gen. Smirnoff has orders on that.

Deans wrote:The Turkish army is big, but largely conscript based. Many competent officers have been purged and the criteria for promotion has been adherence to Islamist values, not professional competence. Still, the Kurdish forces will not be able to stand up to the Turks in a conventional fight. If they fight an unconventional war inside Turkey, the country's economy will collapse - not just because of the higher military expenditure, but loss of whatever little investor confidence there is. For Assad and Russia, a large part of the country which is currently Kurdish controlled, becomes weakened. my view is the kurds will either have to cut a deal with Assad/Russia and get their protection in return for some autonomy, or get slaughtered.

Deans, if Turkey purged its competent officer cadre and NCO ranks it would turn out to be another version of the Saudi Army and would suffer the same kind of effects that the Saudi army did in Yemen. The Kurds are way better armed better organized and supplied than the Houthis in Yemen were.

@realdonaldtrump isn't removing our troops from Syria. He's just moving them from the northern Syrian border, allowing Turkey to invade Syria & slaughter the Kurds. Trump lied to the Kurds, promising them our support while simultaneously preventing them ... from reconciling with the Syrian government and coordinating a common defense against Turkish invasion. The impending slaughter & ethnic cleansing of the Syrian by Turkey is happening because Trump refuses to end our efforts to overthrow the Syrian government. The Kurds are just another casualty of this regime change war which is supported by war-mongering Republicans, Democrats, and corporate media. The hypocrisy of war-mongers like Nikki Haley, Senator Graham & others who have demanded that we continue our regime change war in Syria, who are now crying crocodile tears for the Kurds, is nauseating. Starving the Syrian people through draconian sanctions. strengthening terrorists like AQ and ISIS, wasting billions of dollars, creating a refugee crisis, & now this impending genocide & ethnic cleansing of the Kurds — the warmongers consider these costs to be a small price to pay in their effort to change the Syrian regime.

Tom SlaughterOk, how long do we need to stay to defend the Kurds from our nato Ally, turkey? The Kurds were hoping we the us, would give them a piece of Syria. Our presence is illegalTulsi said 'Trump Prevented Kurds from reconciling with the Syrian government.' For permanent solution Kurds need to reconcile with Syrian Government.

Unfortunately, none of them are in power. AFAIK Tulsi Gabbard is the only major US politician to have unreservedly maintained that the US regime change attempt in Syria is responsible for the prolonging of the war and the refugee crisis as well as the rise of ISIS and other Jihadi groups there. Everyone else, whether Republican or Democrat continues to blame the whole disaster on Assad and Iran while somehow vigorously disagreeing with each other at the same time. Woke liberals were crying gallons of tears when Assad recaptured Aleppo and blaming Trump. Republicans were blaming Obama for not dealing with Assad earlier. Neither side stopped to see if the rebels being defeated was a good thing since the fighting in Aleppo might stop finally. Nobody actually cared for the civilians there. But they were quick to demonize Tulsi as an Assad sympathizer.

In northeastern Syria, we had one of the most successful partnerships. The Islamic State was using Syria as a sanctuary to support its operations in Iraq and globally, including by hosting and training foreign fighters. We had to go after ISIS quickly and effectively. The answer came in the form of a small band of Kurdish forces pinned up against the Turkish border and fighting for their lives against ISIS militants in the Syrian town of Kobane in 2014.

We had tried many other options first. The U.S. initially worked to partner with moderate Syrian rebel groups, investing $500 million in a train-and-equip program to build their capabilities to fight against ISIS in Syria. That endeavor failed, save for a small force in southeastern Syria near the American al-Tanf base, which began as a U.S. outpost to fight ISIS and remains today as a deterrent against Iran. So we turned to Turkey to identify alternative groups, but the Pentagon found that the force Turkey had trained was simply inadequate and would require tens of thousands of U.S. troops to bolster it in battle. With no public appetite for a full-scale U.S. ground invasion, we were forced to look elsewhere.

I (Joseph Votel) first met General Mazloum Abdi at a base in northern Syria in May 2016. From the start, it was obvious he was not only an impressive and thoughtful man, but a fighter who was clearly thinking about the strategic aspects of the campaign against ISIS and aware of the challenges of fighting a formidable enemy. He could see the long-term perils from the civil war, but recognized that the most immediate threat to his people was ISIS. After a fitful start in Syria, I concluded that we had finally found the right partner who could help us defeat ISIS without getting drawn into the murkier conflict against Bashar al-Assad’s regime.

The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), initially composed of the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), was then conceived: a fighting force that eventually grew to 60,000 battle-hardened and determined soldiers. The decision to partner with the YPG, beginning with the fight in Kobane, was made across two administrations and had required years of deliberation and planning, especially given the concerns of our NATO ally Turkey, who regards the SDF as an offshoot of the designated terrorist group the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). Eventually, the YPG became the backbone of the fighting force against ISIS in Syria. Without it, President Donald Trump could not have declared the complete defeat of ISIS.

With support from what grew to be the 80-member Coalition to Defeat ISIS, which included air power, advisers on the ground, and equipment, the SDF became a force to be reckoned with and led a string of victories. In August 2016, it liberated the Syrian town of Manbij, which once functioned as a hub for ISIS fighters to cross into Turkey and is believed to be where the attackers who carried out the November 2015 Paris attacks transited. Mindful of the need for credibility as it pushed to liberate Arab-dominated areas, the YPG had succeeded in incorporating Arab units into its structure as a united Arab-Kurd fighting force. That force, the SDF, went on to liberate the so-called capital of the caliphate, Raqqa, and towns in the Middle Euphrates River Valley, culminating in the territorial defeat of ISIS in Baghouz this past March.

Over four years, the SDF freed tens of thousands of square miles and millions of people from the grip of ISIS. Throughout the fight, it sustained nearly 11,000 casualties. By comparison, six U.S. service members, as well as two civilians, have been killed in the anti-ISIS campaign. Key to this effective relationship was mutual trust, constant communication, and clear expectations. The partnership was not without its difficulties. That included working through the December 2018 announcement of our sudden departure and our subsequent agreement with Turkey to pursue a security mechanism for the border areas. But each time, the strong mutual trust built on the ground between our military members and the SDF preserved our momentum. The sudden policy change this week breaks that trust at the most crucial juncture and leaves our partners with very limited options.

Deans wrote:The Turkish army is big, but largely conscript based. Many competent officers have been purged and the criteria for promotion has been adherence to Islamist values, not professional competence. Still, the Kurdish forces will not be able to stand up to the Turks in a conventional fight. If they fight an unconventional war inside Turkey, the country's economy will collapse - not just because of the higher military expenditure, but loss of whatever little investor confidence there is. For Assad and Russia, a large part of the country which is currently Kurdish controlled, becomes weakened. my view is the kurds will either have to cut a deal with Assad/Russia and get their protection in return for some autonomy, or get slaughtered.

Deans, if Turkey purged its competent officer cadre and NCO ranks it would turn out to be another version of the Saudi Army and would suffer the same kind of effects that the Saudi army did in Yemen. The Kurds are way better armed better organized and supplied than the Houthis in Yemen were.

I've worked in Turkey and a couple of colleagues had been officers in the Turkish army. The Turkish army scores over the Saudis (IMO) in the area of `pride in serving in the armed forces'. However, the officers and men (both being mostly conscripts) are a lot less experienced. With their Islamist values, they currently resemble a less experienced version of the Pak army (which has career soldiers and a strong regimental tradition as we do). They also have budget constraints. A war might strain the Turkish economy to breaking point (its a lot less resilient than Saudi) particularly if the Kurds start an urban guerilla war - which is what they are best at.

Deans wrote:They also have budget constraints. A war might strain the Turkish economy to breaking point (its a lot less resilient than Saudi) particularly if the Kurds start an urban guerilla war - which is what they are best at.

Kurds are better off doing so. Follow tsun zu and maratha strategy and not take on turks head on.

The statement is worded unusually strongly, and directly says that India wants Turkey to respect the territorial sovereignty of Syria. The comments may be seen in light of the fraying of ties between the two countries in recent weeks after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s speech at the UN General Assembly in which he took a pro-Pakistan stance on the Kashmir issue.

India has been swift to respond, and even before this latest verbal volley, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had held meetings with the heads of Cyprus and Armenia, two countries in Turkey’s neighbourhood which have had historically strained ties and disputes with Ankara.

Moreover, reports had recently emerged of a plan to halt Turkey’s participation in a multi-billion dollar project for the Indian Navy.

The pattern that is emerging seems to suggest that India is no longer willing to ignore countries’ words or actions which are adversarial to its own position on its internal affairs.

Deans wrote:They also have budget constraints. A war might strain the Turkish economy to breaking point (its a lot less resilient than Saudi) particularly if the Kurds start an urban guerilla war - which is what they are best at.

Kurds are better off doing so. Follow tsun zu and maratha strategy and not take on turks head on.

The invasion of the Turkish army in northern Syria is part of the asymmetric war that Erdogan has been waging for years. For Europe, especially for Germany, it will sooner or later take revenge to close our eyes and ears before this war on our doorstep. The war against the people of northern Syria and Erdogan's expansionist policies will not be localized. For three years, Turkish media spread maps that Erdogan's expansion plans in line with the Ottoman Empire make it clear .

Trump's announcement that Turkey is now responsible for the captured IS terrorists in northern Syria should freeze everyone's blood, as the years of Turkish support for ISIS and the other jihadist groups in Syria are well documented. Alleged Turkish fight against IS always meant to integrate former IS fighters in other jihadist structures and to use as auxiliary troops for own purposes, among other things, to trigger or threaten new flows of refugees to Europe and to pay for their prevention. The annexation of northern Syria and its consequences, he will be paid by the EU.

The opposition Kemalist party CHP, which won the mayoral elections in Istanbul against the AKP candidate only because the HDP renounced its own candidate in favor of a CHP candidate, in Parliament approved the aggressive war (see: Erdogans work and Kilicdaroglus contribution Once again, the nationalist old men's team has gained the upper hand in the CHP, and the Turkish media is also launching an attack and publishing a map showing that Turkey wants to occupy the entire area from Afrin to Derik along the Turkish-Syrian border.

"Go and tell the infidel, Muhammad's army has returned," wrote the AKP propaganda newspaper Yeni Akit on its front page after Trump's announcement of the US withdrawal from the border area.

An important part of Erdogan's asymmetric war strategy is the blackmail of Europe with new refugees. Since 2015, European diplomats and the military have been talking about the Turkish "migration weapon". "Because the Turkish secret service massively and specifically promotes the migration movement of Muslims whenever Turkey wants to extort more money or political good behavior from Europe," reports n-tv.

Erdogan knows how blackmailable (and submissive) the Federal Government is: each new refugee movement will strengthen both the AfD and its supporters in Germany. Therefore, even after the conquest of northern Syria, Erdogan will not stop opening the gates from time to time to get EU money for his ailing economy. This is compounded in the call for EU funds to flow into the northern Syrian "security zone" - to rebuild what its tanks and bombers have previously destroyed and to build new villages and even cities.

This money is intended to obstruct especially the state housing company TOKI . Erdogan's expansion efforts, which will not stop in front of Europe, are completely ignored by Europe. For years he has been threatening that the Turks would not voluntarily accept their borders and alludes to the Lausanne Treaty of 1923. "We have to be everywhere where our ancestors were."

A senior diplomat in Brussels warns Erdogan "is not a small security corridor in northern Syria, he sees the historic opportunity to move Turkey's borders on a grand scale". For example, he calls back from Greece some islands, which were assigned in 1923 with the Treaty of Lausanne of Greece.

In Cyprus, he provokes the EU with an extensive gas drilling program in the territorial waters of the island. Nobody should doubt that Turkey would do the same thing as it did 45 years ago, Erdogan provoked, referring to the 45th anniversary of the Turkish invasion of Northern Cyprus. In Germany, he promotes "political Islam" in the mosques via the two Islamic umbrella organizations DITIB and the Islamic Federation, which receive their orders directly from the Turkish religious authority Diyanet. Nevertheless, some federal states continue to conclude cooperation agreements for Islamic religious instruction with them.

At ACP events, Erdogan repeatedly talks about "opening the gates to Vienna" for his people, referring to the Muslim Balkan states such as Albania, Bosnia and Kosovo. With investments such as the construction of Muslim schools, universities, dormitories and mosques, Turkey is financing increasing Islamism in the Balkans.

Section 2: Sanctions against military transactions with TurkeySanctions against any foreign person who sells or provides financial, material, or technological support or knowingly does a transaction with the Turkish militaryincluding• Aircraft or aircraft parts, machinery, used by the Turkish Air Force• Automotive equipment and services utilized by the Turkish Land and NavalForces• Weapons or defense articles utilized by the Turkish Military

Section 3: Sanctions against the Turkish Energy Sector• Sanctions any foreign person or entity who supplies goods, services,technology, information, or other support that maintains or supports Turkey’sdomestic petroleum production and natural gas production for use by itsarmed forces

Section 4: Prohibition on U.S. Military Assistance• Prohibits the sale of U.S. defense articles, services, technology, materials tothe Turkish Armed Forces• Prohibit ammunition sales and transfers to the Turkish Armed ForcesSection 5: CAATSA (S-400)• Define Tukey’s S-400 purchase as a significant transaction under section 231of CAATSA• Implementation of sanctions from CAATSA must occur within 180 days fromdesignating as significant• Removes CAATSA waiver and delay provisions under Section 231 for thispurchase

Section 2: Sanctions against military transactions with TurkeySanctions against any foreign person who sells or provides financial, material, ortechnological support or knowingly does a transaction with the Turkish militaryincluding

Say, doesn't this mean our dear friends in the Pee-A-Fauj? And speaking of that, the cancellation of the Navy deal seems to have come at an auspicious time..