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Home Prices Increase from a Year Ago

National home prices, including distressed sales, increased by 1.7 percent in March 2010 compared to March 2009, according to CoreLogic and its Home Price Index (HPI). This was an improvement over February’s year-over-year price increase of 0.8 percent.* Excluding distressed sales, year-over-year prices increased in March by 1.9 percent; an improvement over the February non-distressed HPI which fell by 0.2 percent year-over-year.

On a month-over-month basis, the national average home price index fell by 0.3 percent in March 2010 compared to February 2010, which was more moderate than the previous one month decline of 1.7 percent from January to February.

Highlights as of March 2010

Including distressed transactions, the peak-to-current change in the national HPI (from April 2006 to March 2010) is -30.5 percent. Excluding distressed properties, the peak-to current change in the HPI is -21.5 percent.

Including distressed sales, 51 of the top 100 Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) increased on a year-over-year basis in March. This is up from 42 CBSAs in February.

When distressed sales were included, Idaho (-11.1 percent) remained in first place as the top-ranked state for annual price depreciation in March, followed by Nevada (-8.8 percent), Illinois (-8.2 percent), Maryland (-6.0 percent) and Alabama (-5.6 percent). All of these states also showed month-over-month decreases in their HPI between February and March.

Excluding distressed sales, the worst five states for year-over-year price declines changes slightly. Idaho (-9.0 percent) was the top decliner, followed by Nevada (-7.8 percent), Michigan (-6.2 percent), West Virginia (-5.3 percent) and Florida (-5.2 percent).

Forecast Highlights as of March 2010

The significant share of distressed sales in the market continues to influence the HPI forecast. Including distressed transactions, the 12-month forecast in the National HPI (from March 2010 to March 2011) is -0.5 percent. Excluding distressed properties, the 12-month forecast in the HPI is +3.6 percent.

Longer-term, the forecast for home prices is more positive as the national economic recovery is expected to gain further traction in 2011. Over the next 24 months, (from March 2010 to March 2012) national home prices are expected to increase by 2.7 percent including distressed sales and by 8.1 percent excluding distressed sales.

Including distressed sales, Detroit (-6.1 percent) is predicted to have the most price depreciation in the next 12 months, followed by Seattle (-4.1 percent), Nassau-Suffolk NY (-3.4 percent) and Baltimore (-3.3 percent). Excluding distressed sales, the numbers for these metro areas change significantly. They are Detroit (-6.1 percent), Seattle (-1.4 percent), Nassau-Suffolk (-2.1 percent) and Baltimore (+2.1 percent).

Including distressed sales, the top metro areas predicted to increase the most over the next twelve months are San Jose (+6.8 percent), Buffalo-Niagara Falls (+4.9 percent), Denver (+4.7 percent) and San Diego (+4.4 percent). Excluding distressed sales, the top metro areas predicted to increase are Buffalo-Niagara Falls (+5.9 percent), San Francisco (+6.1 percent), Washington DC (+5.6 percent) and Denver (+5.5 percent).

The majority of the predicted year-over-year gains are projected to come during the current spring selling season, as repressed demand from the winter and the last influences of the homebuyer tax credit are experienced. Beyond the spring, the forecast indicates that price growth will flatten out over the summer and decline modestly in the autumn and winter before rebounding again next year.

“March’s year-over-year increase in the HPI shows that the housing market is continuing to exhibit signs of stability,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. “The differences between trends, including and excluding distressed sales, indicate the strong influence of distressed activity remains, but the surge in home sales in March is giving the market a boost this spring. As the influence of the tail end of the tax credit and spring buying season fade, price growth will fade with it as we go into summer.”

*February’s increase was revised upward from 0.3 percent to 0.8 percent to reflect updated public record data. Revisions with public record data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results.