Wednesday, September 29, 2010

New Poll

A new poll from Angus Reid, which shows a widening Conservative lead, up to 8%:

Con. 34% Lib. 26% NDP 18% BQ 11% Grn 10%

Conservatives up 1%, Liberals down 3%, NDP down 1%, Greens up 2%. Looking at the regionals, the Ontario numbers have held firm, virtually no change from the last Angus Reid poll. Ditto for Quebec, which means the national race change is largely due to a more reasonable Liberal tally in Atlantic Canada and a noticeable pullback in British Columbia and Man/Sask. With regard to regionals, really only Ontario and Quebec have a low enough MOE to say anything definitive (based on one poll), so whether this is noise or real, remains to be seen. Regardless, the headline shows a widening Conservative lead, and that's all that really matters.

A couple things that struck me with this poll. While AR still shows Layton relatively "popular", we do see a very noticeable change on some key measures, well outside the normal incremental moves with AR. For instance, in one month Layton's disapproval total has risen 5%, a relatively large swing. Even more telling, we see a large 8% rise in the number of people who's opinion of Layton has worsened. Further on the question of "weak", with Ignatieff dropping and Layton rising, we see a statistical tie, for the first time I can remember. Dippers will still point to the overall tallies, but in this case the devil is clearly in the details.

As far as Ignatieff, obviously large challenges still exist. I would note however that we see another drop on the "arrogant" front. This means that since October 2009, Ignatieff has brought this number down a full 16%, from a half to a third of Canadians. The trend is positive, and it's important, because this perception one of the chief achilles heels. I also note, another slight drop on the "out of touch" front, again a key consideration.

Overall, Angus Reid seems to put the horserace numbers back where they've had them most of the year, with the exception of their poll last month. Ignatieff mania is still a indie consideration- get in while it's still cool!

I'd love to know who these people are that so easily jump off and on the Harper bandwagon.

Well really when you look at it, the 30% mark is Harper's base. This is the die-hard conservative vote, and those numbers won't drop below this level unless a serious scandal erupts which could threaten the very core of the CPC.

In case you think that 30 mark is high, it is in fact a significant decrease from what the combined Reform/Alliance + PC numbers once were, even when compared to the 1993 election.

So really we are talking about a 4-8% of the population that buys whatever the PMO spins on any given day.

Likewise the Libs are just slightly above their bedrock of support at 26%. If anything this poll is identifying what the polls have shown for quite some time, that most independent votes really don't like either option and wish for a complete change of leadership in all the federal parties.

I really doesn't matter which party you support, these are awful numbers for anyone who wishes a election in the short-term.

think Iggy is going to lose BC altogether if he doesn't change his stance on the HST. People in BC aren't too keen on the Liberal "brand" these days.

If you are so much in the know, Campbell will hold a referendum to the citizens of BC and if the majorities want out of the HST, they will implement the steps to do so. 51%! for and 50% less, it stays. Ask the NDP how they would get rid of the GST if they were in power? They have been asked and cannot respond because they know full well they can’t do anything either nor would they want to. Speak for yourself Kim and remember that you are merely one voice not all of BC. Place a whole lot of blame on the Reform Cons for bribing both Ontario and BC for millions to implement the HST.

The federal Party of Harper is not innocent in all of this nor the hard times of Ontario. Campbell has done very well for the province since he was elected and BC citizens will not forget that or of the hard times with the NDP in power and the social party of trouble maker Bill Vandersam who hates the NDP to the core. The man who was exposed in his building Fantacy Gardens with tax breaks and contracts.

BTW, Kim, Harper will answer to all Canadians once a writ is dropped and we go to an election which can’t be soon enough for me. Harper may have a lot of attack ads ready but I am quite sure the Liberals will be ready and be ready to expose their continuous lies and follow up with good polices that Canadians want.

Iggy can't change his HST stance now. I would say, I thought he had a clever angle this summer, when touring BC. He took a swipe at Campbell, saying it wasn't the policy, but the way it was enacted, the way people weren't consulted. Clearly, he was speaking to the issue of the election, and I think this is a good strategy to distance himself from the provincial brand. He put it as "question of trust".

Wow marie, how long have you been working for the Public Affairs Bureau? Nice work if you can get it! I personally hate everything that Harper stands for and will vote in whichever way ensures that goal is reached. However I, along with many british columbians are very concerned that the distribution of power in Ottawa is badly skewed and that we don't want ANY leader to erode the balance further.And Marie, we also know that Campbell is lying through his teeth with his phoney promise, since he refuses to change the law to allow for his 50+1%. We all know he will suddenly develop an urge to spend time with his family just before the referendum. The only question to that is, which family? The thing that worries me about Iggy is the op-ed for the New Yorker where he defended the use of torture. Okay, and Paul Martin, he bothers me too.

Kim said People in BC aren't too keen on the Liberal "brand" these days.

Which means people in BC are not too keen on the Conservative "brand" either - Harper and Flaherty are the pushers here Kim and don't you forget that.

FWIW the Libs and Cons are both on the right side of the HST issue, in that this is a good tax (open, and transparent tax on personal consumption - btw the rich consume more you know) versus bad taxes like corporate or income taxes which penalize innovation and investment. I credit the Liberals quite a bit in growing up and admitting that Mulroney was right all along when he scuttled the old job-killing Manufacturers Sales Tax and replaced it with the GST.

Mulroney's problem was he did not address the public directly with this change, and he instituted this at the wrong time (during a recession) something that Campbell is also guilty of.

And the NDP can stop playing politics with this too, you're highest national HST rates in Nova Scotia show your hypocrisy Dippers. Regardless of their protests the NDP has never met a tax they didn't like.

Yes, Ms. James and Mr. Hudak will try to ride the anger over the HST to election victory but if they succeed it will be a cold day in Hell before they abolish the HST. The NDP has never seen a tax it did not like and Mr. Hudak will not repeal a tax his former Harris government buddy, Jim Flaherty, pushed to have adopted in Ontario.

As for the poll, the horse race numbers are not very useful at this point. What pollsters should be measuring is the desire for change amongst the electorate. That is now the key question.

Those estimates would really put any horse race numbers into perspective.

The acknowledged spread that the CPC and the Libs agree on is 6 points. It seems that the Greens are the parking lot again, while the Dips are back at their traditional level if not slightly higher. Still it's a bit of a weird result for the Libs who seemed to have a bit of momentum from the summer. I've thought that Iggy's performance in the house has been a bit underwhelming, so maybe that's the cause? Maybe, the comment of keeping Iggy on the road is a good idea?

On a side note, I can just hear that twit Taber on QP this Sunday, "but what about the polls, but what about the polls?!"

The acknowledged spread that the CPC and the Libs agree on is 6 points. It seems that the Greens are the parking lot again, while the Dips are back at their traditional level if not slightly higher. Still it's a bit of a weird result for the Libs who seemed to have a bit of momentum from the summer. I've thought that Iggy's performance in the house has been a bit underwhelming, so maybe that's the cause?

Okay, obviously no one is going to mention the vote to save the long-gun registry as a possible cause, so I suppose I'll have to. Anyone who stated that this would be a losing proposition for the Conservatives (and you know who you are) was wrong, and for reasons obvious enough that I shouldn't have to repost them here, right?

Cons didn't move Fried. Looks like the Green Party is the big winner on the gun registry front. Or more rightly, evidence of anti status quo. Bad sign for incumbent government, opportunity for a good campaign to galvanize behind Liberal alternative. Subtlety.

Hey, I'm not the bad guy here. I don't want Harper in as much as anyone here, Okay? I'm just not a card carrying(insert party here) I'm sayin' we need to revisit party politics here, think about it for a minute, when's the last time ANY political party published an actual platform? If you are about to brandish the big red tent, spare me! by the way, love your blog, thanks for the forum!

Nor did the Libs or NDP. Why not? This was supposed to be a big vote-getter for them, wasn't it?

Looks like the Green Party is the big winner on the gun registry front. Or more rightly, evidence of anti status quo.

Their numbers never pan out, though.

Bad sign for incumbent government, opportunity for a good campaign to galvanize behind Liberal alternative. Subtlety.

Could be. But Ignatieff isn't the man to do it. Yes, I know, I know...you can't get rid of him now. Nor should you even try; as much as I would like to believe otherwise, I know Stephen Harper would find a way to force an election if you even tried replacing Ignatieff (hey, he's a politician, isn't he?).

The registry, the census, the G20, the stimulus spending, Afghanistan...whatever, none of it is resonating with the public. Either Stephen Harper is being supported, or Ignatieff and Layton are not. Doesn't bode well for Canada either way...