213 Miles From Sheahttp://www.213milesfromshea.com
Blogging About the Mets, Baseball, and their Respective Cultures since January 2007Fri, 09 Mar 2018 15:05:53 +0000en-UShourly1https://wordpress.org/?v=4.9.42018 Stats Projection – Kevin Plaweckihttp://www.213milesfromshea.com/2018/03/09/2018-stats-projection-kevin-plawecki/
http://www.213milesfromshea.com/2018/03/09/2018-stats-projection-kevin-plawecki/#respondFri, 09 Mar 2018 15:05:53 +0000http://www.213milesfromshea.com/?p=7608Continue reading →]]>If I told you the Mets had a catcher last year that got on base at a .350 clip, what would you say? If I then told you it was only 118 appearances would you then throw soup at me and say I’m extrapolating too much? Maybe.

Kevin Plawecki

Source

PA

AB

H

R

HR

AVG

OBP

SLG

Baseball Prospectus

154

26.268

16

4

0.242

0.309

0.375

ZiPS

392

90

38

9

0.253

0.311

0.382

Steamer

171

154

38

16

4

0.247

0.311

0.382

ESPN

249

62.997

23

5

0.253

0.33

0.357

MLB.com

225

56.025

23

6

0.249

0.337

0.382

Baseball Reference

274

241

58

25

6

0.241

0.322

0.361

Average:

247.75

217.25

55.215

23.5

5.666667

0.2475

0.32

0.373167

2017 Stats:

118

100

26

11

3

0.26

0.354

0.4

The computers do not see Plawecki returning to those insane for him 2017 numbers, but If he got on base at a .320 clip, that would be a massive improvement from what we’ve seen overall. There has already been reporting this year (thank you The Athletic) that over the last several years he has changed his batting stance. He couldn’t keep up at the major level and was hitting standing up. He’s crouching more now.

With d’Arnaud, the Mets need Plawecki to step up this season. There’s reason to be happy with Plawecki in 2018. My gut tells me that catching is d’Arnaud’s job to lose. He should be catching 75% of the time but if Plawecki starts off strong maybe it becomes more 50/50. And as always health is a major question.

]]>http://www.213milesfromshea.com/2018/03/09/2018-stats-projection-kevin-plawecki/feed/02018 Stats Preview – Jose Reyeshttp://www.213milesfromshea.com/2018/03/08/2018-stats-preview-jose-reyes/
http://www.213milesfromshea.com/2018/03/08/2018-stats-preview-jose-reyes/#respondThu, 08 Mar 2018 15:05:09 +0000http://www.213milesfromshea.com/?p=7606Continue reading →]]>A reunion with Jose Reyes seemed inevitable all off-season. For most of the off-season the Mets needed at least a second or third basemen. The Mets also had a depleted bench in terms of players with major league experience. No team was really biting on Jose Reyes (and a bunch of other players at well). Resigning Jose Reyes just seemed destined.

Then one day Jose Reyes drove to Citi Field and snapped the emoji with the hand on the chin (the inquisitive one?). The whole fan base knew at that time Jose Reyes was coming back. Later in the day the Mets signed him.

When the Mets signed him, I didn’t make an opinion about how I felt with the decision. If Reyes was going to start, then this was a bad move for the Mets. If the Mets were going to acquire a new infielder, making Jose Reyes a bench player and displacing Matt Reynolds from the 25-man, then this would be a good move.

The Mets signed Frazier, Reyes is now a bench player, and now we can really look at these projections:

Jose Reyes

Source

PA

AB

H

R

HR

AVG

OBP

SLG

Baseball Prospectus

481

90.503

63

10

0.263

0.318

0.392

ZiPS

492

114

65

12

0.255

0.311

0.405

Steamer

271

245

61

30

6

0.249

0.309

0.388

ESPN

241

60.973

36

7

0.253

0.317

0.411

MLB.com

280

70

45

8

0.25

0.307

0.418

Baseball Reference

508

459

116

66

13

0.253

0.313

0.405

Average:

438

306.25

85.41267

50.83333

9.333333

0.253833

0.3125

0.403167

2017 Stats:

561

501

123

75

15

0.246

0.315

0.413

Since Reyes is going to be a bench player and we don’t need to worry about his defense that much, I’m not that upset with Reyes riding the bench. The computers see his slash line returning to normal a bit, a slightly higher average, a similar OBP and a drop in slugging.

What computers really struggled with is playing time. Only ESPN and Steamer seeing a reduced role for Reyes (I think both were ran after other infielders were signed by the Mets). It’s also crazy to think about how much playing time he got with the Mets last year. I never thought he would get above 500 plate appearances nor did I think he would get 15 homers.

I’m still not happy the Mets gave Reyes a second chance. I still find it hard to root for Reyes. That’s never going to go away. This doesn’t fit with the article as a whole but it needed to be said.

]]>http://www.213milesfromshea.com/2018/03/08/2018-stats-preview-jose-reyes/feed/02018 Stats Projection – Dom Smithhttp://www.213milesfromshea.com/2018/03/07/2018-stats-projection-dom-smith/
http://www.213milesfromshea.com/2018/03/07/2018-stats-projection-dom-smith/#respondWed, 07 Mar 2018 17:01:38 +0000http://www.213milesfromshea.com/?p=7604Continue reading →]]>From the jump, I need to be honest. I am biased towards wanting Dom Smith to be the first basemen of the Mets. It’s a combination of following him since he’s been drafted, loving younger players, and his personality. I want the answer at first base to be Dom Smith. Right now, it seems like the Mets have done a lot this off-season to make the Mets answer to not be Dom Smith (getting Gonzalez, suggesting that Bruce can play first, almost making fun of Smith at pressers).

Let’s take a look at his stats:

Dominic Smith

Source

PA

AB

H

R

HR

AVG

OBP

SLG

Baseball Prospectus

536

100.288

61

18

0.258

0.314

0.423

ZiPS

652

164

76

20

0.272

0.324

0.43

Steamer

234

214

54

24

8

0.251

0.306

0.413

ESPN

240

58.08

26

7

0.242

0.292

0.379

MLB.com

220

53.9

27

9

0.245

0.305

0.432

Baseball Reference

292

262

62

33

13

0.237

0.306

0.439

Average:

428.5

234

82.04467

41.16667

12.5

0.250833

0.307833

0.419333

2017 Stats:

183

167

33

17

9

0.198

0.262

0.393

Dom Smith surprised us in two ways in 2017. His defense left a lot to be desired at the major league level, the first time that has been true for Dom Smith. The ball exploded off bat when he made contact, knocking in 9 homers in limited at bats. Something else he rarely did at any other level.

I deeply believe that Dom Smith gets a lot better this year with playing time. He has had made a mistake this spring (showing up late) and was unlucky and got injured but I still feel he is the answer at first base. He dropped a lot of weight over the season and is hopefully motivated with Peter Alonso knocking at the door behind him.

Then again, as stated earlier, I don’t know how much of what I’m saying is due to a Dom Smith bias. I want him to be the answer and I don’t know if that is clouding my judgment? I guess we’ll find out this season.

Brandon Nimmo stole my heart at the Queens Baseball Convention this year. Before the Convention, I was on board trading Nimmo to the Pirates for Harrison or to the Indians for Kipnis. I wanted this solution even knowing that Brandon Nimmo was one of a handful of outfielders on the Mets roster. I was desperate for a better infield.

Nimmo was just amazing in his panel session. He may be the most genuine athlete I’ve ever listened to speak. But can he play?

The answer is pointing towards: yes!

Nimmo posted a ridiculous OBP last year in a small sample size and although the models and projections seeing him regressing. If he can get on base at the .338 average OBP, which isn’t terrible, then why not lead off for the 1-2 months before Conforto comes back? I want to root for Nimmo after hearing him speak and that is clouding my judgment but maybe the Mets need a guy like Nimmo for fans to fall in love with.

]]>http://www.213milesfromshea.com/2018/03/06/2018-stats-projection-brandon-nimmo/feed/02018 Stats Projection – Travis d’Arnaudhttp://www.213milesfromshea.com/2018/03/05/2018-stats-projection-travis-darnaud/
http://www.213milesfromshea.com/2018/03/05/2018-stats-projection-travis-darnaud/#respondMon, 05 Mar 2018 15:05:49 +0000http://www.213milesfromshea.com/?p=7600Continue reading →]]>Travis had a good year in terms of power numbers, but a bad year in pretty much everything else as the oft injured catcher was able to stay on the field for 376 PAs. At this point in d’Arnaud’s career he is becoming a catcher who plays below average time, mostly out of injury concerns.

Here are what the computers think he will do this year:

Travis d’Arnaud

Source

PA

AB

H

R

HR

AVG

OBP

SLG

Baseball Prospectus

488

86.392

58

16

0.25

0.315

0.418

ZiPS

379

90

42

13

0.259

0.312

0.431

Steamer

331

299

75

35

12

0.252

0.313

0.431

ESPN

330

85.14

39

14

0.258

0.31

0.439

MLB.com

330

85.14

41

15

0.258

0.306

0.458

Baseball Reference

416

377

94

46

15

0.249

0.311

0.422

Average:

403.5

334

85.94533

43.5

14.16667

0.254333

0.311167

0.433167

2017 Stats:

376

348

85

39

16

0.244

0.293

0.443

Rene Rivera started to give d’Arnaud a run for his money in value to the team over the last couple of seasons. Now this is Travis and Kevin’s job where step forwards by either of them can edge out the others.

Travis will face additional pressures this year from the minors in both Nido (low threat) and Lobaton (spring threat). The projections see a step back in the correct direction for OBP and a step back for power. They also see him putting similar, if not less, playing time compared to last year.

The Mets don’t need d’Arnaud to be great. There are a lot of bats in the lineup now. They need him to be serviceable though.

Last year I took a road trip to see the Mets play in Miami and I stopped in Columbia on the way down from Jersey which meant I saw Tim Tebow. Physically, he’s still a quarter back and made the other players on the field look like children because they were compared t him. He was 7.5 years older than the average player in the South Atlantic League. The fans though absolutely love him. I want to be a Tebow hater but I had a lot of fun at that game.

Let’s focus on Tebow stats though. In 244 PAs for Columbia he hit .220/.311/.336 and then in St. Lucie he slashed .231/.307/.356. He’s not going to be a star, but he is working incredibly hard almost to the point I feel bad berating him when the Mets signed him in 2016.

Him playing is still a bit of gimmick. If he makes it to the majors in 2018 it will almost definitely be a gimmick. But what if he plays decently in Binghamton? What if he starts off decently in Syracuse in 2019? What if the Mets stay thin with outfielders? I thought it was impossible for Tebow to make the team last year but now, there really is a path for Tebow to get ABs in September 2019 or 2020.

]]>http://www.213milesfromshea.com/2018/03/04/2018-non-roster-invite-tim-tebow/feed/02018 Stats Projection – Jay Brucehttp://www.213milesfromshea.com/2018/03/04/2018-stats-projection-jay-bruce/
http://www.213milesfromshea.com/2018/03/04/2018-stats-projection-jay-bruce/#respondSun, 04 Mar 2018 15:05:44 +0000http://www.213milesfromshea.com/?p=7591Continue reading →]]>Up until 2016, it felt like once a year the Mets flirted with the idea of somehow getting Jay Bruce to suit up in Queens. The playoff run made that fantasy, someone’s fantasy, a reality as Jay Bruce was brought over to solidify an ailing lineup in a wild card run. Then during the following off season there were calls to trade Bruce, keep Bruce, blame Bruce for all the existential woes of the Mets team. Honestly I can’t even recall who was calling for what around Bruce.

Bruce went on to have a Jay Bruce 2017, hitting bombs. But homers last year were more common than differing opinions on how the Mets should construct a lineup so Jay Bruce was traded for Ryder Ryan, a relief prospect.

Going into this season, the Mets needed a center fielder and either a second basemen or a third basemen. The first two moves the Mets made were to sign Bruce to play corner outfield and a little first base, and then the Mets signed a first basemen. It was quite a Mets move. Keeping with Mets tradition, this led to a lampooning of Bruce, again. Bruce is a good value for the price the Mets got him at, but just didn’t quite fit the need on paper.

Jay Bruce

Source

PA

AB

H

R

HR

AVG

OBP

SLG

Baseball Prospectus

574

89.056

71

27

0.244

0.312

0.465

Steamer

530

475

114

64

26

0.239

0.308

0.465

ESPN

555

133.2

75

33

0.24

0.31

0.486

MLB.com

545

136.25

79

32

0.25

0.322

0.49

Baseball Reference

567

510

125

71

29

0.245

0.313

0.48

Average:

557

521.25

119.5012

72

29.4

0.2436

0.313

0.4772

2017 Stats:

617

555

141

82

36

0.254

0.324

0.508

Looking at Bruce’s projections, the computers see Bruce taking a slight step back next year. This isn’t too surprising considering Bruce’s age and how much better his 2017 was over it’s original projection. I’m not sure how many people projected Bruce hitting 36 homers and getting on base at a .324 clip last year, but he did.

While I do expect him to slide, I don’t expect him to slide that much. His season will also depend on all of Frazier, Conforto and Cespedes. If it’s Bruce and the 2017 September Mets, there’s not much reason to go after Bruce in the strike zone.

I like Bruce and I hope he does well. I’m looking forward to seeing him at the plate next year despite my skepticism when he was signed over a center fielder this off-season.

]]>http://www.213milesfromshea.com/2018/03/04/2018-stats-projection-jay-bruce/feed/02018 Non Roster Invite: Kevin Kaczmarskihttp://www.213milesfromshea.com/2018/03/03/2018-non-roster-invite-kevin-kaczmarski/
http://www.213milesfromshea.com/2018/03/03/2018-non-roster-invite-kevin-kaczmarski/#respondSat, 03 Mar 2018 17:05:53 +0000http://www.213milesfromshea.com/?p=7581Continue reading →]]>Kevin Kaczmarski will be the last player from the 2015 draft we look at in this non-roster invite series. He was drafted in the 9th round out of the University of Evansville.

He spent all of last year at Binghamton where he slashed .274/.370/.369 over 531 PAs. All he has done though at the minor league level is hit. In 2015 in Kingsport he hit .355/.415/.512. Then in 2016 between Columbia and St. Lucie he hit .280/.360/.413.

His OBP increase last year compared to 2016, despite playing at a higher level, is driving attention on Kevin. In the Arizona Fall League this year he continued to hit at .351/.393/.442.

So like so many players in the last couple of years (Phil Evans, PJ Conlon, Corey Taylor, Peter Alonso) Kevin’s numbers are becoming hard to ignore so he deserves to get the NRI. Unlike the rest of them, he’s a bit older, at 25, so in AA he was above the average age.

Also similar to Zach Borenstein, the signing of den Dekker gives the Mets space with him. I don’t expect the Mets to want to bring Kevin up this year. With Kevin we’ll probably returning to this article again next year. His numbers are interesting, I’m looking forward to watching him handle upper level talent this spring.

]]>http://www.213milesfromshea.com/2018/03/03/2018-non-roster-invite-kevin-kaczmarski/feed/02018 Stats Projection – Adrian Gonzalezhttp://www.213milesfromshea.com/2018/03/03/2018-stats-projection-adrian-gonzalez/
http://www.213milesfromshea.com/2018/03/03/2018-stats-projection-adrian-gonzalez/#respondSat, 03 Mar 2018 16:00:15 +0000http://www.213milesfromshea.com/?p=7597Continue reading →]]>Adrián Gonzalez was a surprise move for the Mets at the same as he was not a surprise move at all. Gonzalez was traded to the Braves as part of a salary cap shifting move by the Dodgers and then immediately dropped so the Mets got him for the league minimum. That part is not surprising, especially if your world Mets view is “the Mets are cheap”.

The move was surprising because 1) the Mets have are supposed to be developing Dom Smith and 2) right before picking up Adrián, the Mets signed Bruce saying that Bruce would spend some time playing first base too and 3) the Mets are still looking for at bats for Wilmer Flores.

Anyway, here are the projections for Adrián, who is coming off injury filled season.

Adrian Gonzalez

Source

PA

AB

H

R

HR

AVG

OBP

SLG

Baseball Prospectus

42

8.13

5

1

0.265

0.327

0.423

Steamer

275

245

62

29

9

0.255

0.327

0.423

ESPN

330

88.11

35

9

0.267

0.334

0.409

MLB.com

350

91

37

9

0.26

0.315

0.397

Baseball Reference

389

348

92

40

12

0.264

0.331

0.425

Average:

235.3333

318.25

68.248

29.2

8

0.2622

0.3268

0.4154

2017 Stats:

252

231

56

14

3

0.242

0.287

0.355

There is quite a bit of variance in playing time for Gonzalez with Prospectus thinking he barely gets any playing time to MLB.com and Baseball Reference thinking he plays half the season. It does look like all of the programs think last year is a fluke* and that he bounces back a bit.

*Programs for a while have projected a decline in stats for Gonzalez, and these are still declines compared to career numbers. Last year was just extra bad. Now if he isn’t healthy then we should see a repeat of last year’s numbers.

I still don’t get the Gonzalez move at all and I rather Dom Smith put up numbers below his his projected average or Dom Smith put up Gonzalez 2017’s slash lines than roll the dice with Gonzalez.

]]>http://www.213milesfromshea.com/2018/03/03/2018-stats-projection-adrian-gonzalez/feed/02018 Non Roster Invite: Matt den Dekkerhttp://www.213milesfromshea.com/2018/03/02/2018-non-roster-invite-matt-den-dekker/
http://www.213milesfromshea.com/2018/03/02/2018-non-roster-invite-matt-den-dekker/#respondFri, 02 Mar 2018 17:05:05 +0000http://www.213milesfromshea.com/?p=7579Continue reading →]]>If you’re poetic, then the Mets signing den Dekker for depth is a homecoming, a full circle affair. If you’re cynical, then den Dekker represents the Mets lack of creativity for depth and the front office is just chasing former Mets. Or if you like baseball stories and hate the Nationals, you are fully satisfied that it is now impossible for the Nationals to win the den Dekker for Jerry Blevins trade.

Matt den Dekker was drafted by the Mets in the 5th round of the 2010 draft. He debuted with the Mets in 2013 and over two seasons had two good seasons in the majors. He got traded right before the start of the 2015 regular season to the Nationals for Jerry Blevens and after the following season, he signed as a free agent with the Marlins and then later with the Tigers.

As a Met, in 237 PAs he hit .238/.325/.310 and was great with the club. Since then in 394 PAs he has hit .234/.316/.354. Additionally, he hit .250/.322/.441 in the minors between the Detroit and Miami system.

Matt makes perfect sense for the Mets as a defense reserve. How often the Mets need to lean on den Dekker will dictate how their season is going. If den Dekker is getting regular at bats this season, something has gone horribly wrong. This was a smart depth for the Mets and they deserve credit for it. Hopefully they don’t have to use den Dekker as an option though.