WASHINGTON, DC - JULY 02: Former Texas Governor and Republican presidential candidate Rick Perry addresses the National Press Club Luncheon July 2, 2015 in Washington, DC. Perry began his speech about how African-Americans should support him and the GOP by recounting the racially-motivated 1916 lynching of Jesse Washington in Waco, Texas, and how far Texas and the nation had come since that time. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images) less

WASHINGTON, DC - JULY 02: Former Texas Governor and Republican presidential candidate Rick Perry addresses the National Press Club Luncheon July 2, 2015 in Washington, DC. Perry began his speech about how ... more

Photo: Chip Somodevilla, Staff / Getty Images

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Republican presidential candidate former Texas Gov. Rick Perry leaves a restaurant following a meet and greet with local residents, Monday, July 13, 2015, in Fort Dodge, Iowa. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

Republican presidential candidate former Texas Gov. Rick Perry leaves a restaurant following a meet and greet with local residents, Monday, July 13, 2015, in Fort Dodge, Iowa. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

Photo: Charlie Neibergall, STF / Associated Press

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FILE-- Jeb Bush and Rick Perry, respectively the former governors of Florida and Texas, speak during a Fourth of July parade in Amherst, N.H., July 4, 2015. The huge field of Republican candidates has created dizzying volatility in the race, making it harder for the eventual nominee to corral wide support. (Sean Proctor/The New York Times) less

FILE-- Jeb Bush and Rick Perry, respectively the former governors of Florida and Texas, speak during a Fourth of July parade in Amherst, N.H., July 4, 2015. The huge field of Republican candidates has created ... more

Photo: SEAN PROCTOR, STR / New York Times

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Republican presidential hopeful Donald Trump at a campaign rally in Laconia, N.H., July 16, 2015. Trumps rise in popularity has flummoxed many people, including the powers-that-be at the Republican National Committee. (Ian Thomas Jansen-Lonnquist/The New York Times) less

Republican presidential hopeful Donald Trump at a campaign rally in Laconia, N.H., July 16, 2015. Trumps rise in popularity has flummoxed many people, including the powers-that-be at the Republican National ... more

WASHINGTON — In a result that has left some political observers scratching their heads, Donald Trump surged to the No. 1 spot among Republican presidential candidates in Friday’s Fox News poll, which also showed that Rick Perry has fallen to a 12th-place tie with Carly Fiorina and Lindsey Graham.

The poll is important because it indicates the most popular candidates among GOP supporters. Only the top 10 hopefuls will be allowed to participate in the Republican presidential debates that Fox will broadcast nationwide. The first debate will be Aug. 6 in Cleveland.

Despite his poor showing, Perry could still participate in the televised debates. The top 10 will be chosen from an average score of five national polls. Fox News has not said which polls those five will be.

Trump’s jump to the forefront seemed to unsettle political pundits who have questioned his criticism of Mexican immigrants to the U.S. According to research data released Friday, the

Republicans will need a larger slice of Latino voters than previously thought if they hope to win the White House in 2016, creating an even tougher hurdle for the eventual nominee.

Thanks to changing demographics, the conventional math that once said the GOP would need to win a minimum of 40 percent of the Latino electorate no longer holds.

Now, data suggests Republicans will need as much as 47 percent of Latino voters, nearly twice the share Mitt Romney is believed to have captured in 2012.

Put another way: 47 percent is the new 40 percent. And it is a daunting number.

“It’s very, very, very basic: Every single year, you need a little bit more of the Latino vote,” said Matt Barreto, UCLA political science professor and co-founder of the polling firm Latino Decisions. “It’s just math.”

The research is based on demographic changes and voter preferences emerging at a time when older, white voters who have powered Republican nominees are fading. The growing Latino electorate is expected to surpass 10 percent of all voters in 2016, and younger white voters are trending toward Democrats.

The findings are likely to scramble Republican strategy circles, because the top Republican candidates are currently performing no better than Romney among Latinos — a problem compounded by celebrity candidate Trump’s disparaging comments about Mexican immigrants.

Jeb Bush, the former Florida governor, does best with Latinos, at 27 percent, according to a Univision poll this week, closely trailed by Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida at 25 percent.

The new thinking unveiled Friday largely mirrors that of Republican pollster Whit Ayres, who has argued that the party’s 2016 nominee will need more than 40 percent of the Latino vote. He has been tapped by Rubio’s campaign.

The last Republican nominee to hit the 40 percent threshold was George W. Bush in 2004.