In an interview with CNN’s Fareed Zakaria earlier this year, Abe explained the true significance of the third arrow:

“What is important about the third arrow, structural reform, is to convince those who resist the steps I am taking and to make them realize that what I have been doing is correct, and by so doing, to engage in structural reform.”

Read that again.

Yes folks, the important part of structural reform in Japan is to convince people that Abe is correct. If he can convince them he is right, they will have engaged in structural reform.

Confused?

You should be.

This is how Japan works — or doesn’t.

Immigration reform has been widely recognized as the only answer to Japan’s crippling demographic problem for well over three decades. Nothing has been done about it.

How about the “Wage Surprise” — increasing wages on a national basis — hailed by Abe as the key to lifting Japan out of the doldrums, and a key feature of Abenomics?

Doh?!

...

Markets will eventually tire of Abe’s continual promises that more is coming, so he desperately needs to somehow break the entrenched deflationary attitude in Japan.

(WSJ): In a survey of 1,000 consumers on March 29-30 by broadcaster Fuji News Network, 69% said they had not made any special purchases ahead of the sales tax rise, and 77.4% said they didn’t feel an economic recovery was under way.

Good luck with that attitude problem, Shinzo.

This week we got a look at how Abe is faring with one of his promises, that of guaranteed 2% inflation.

Core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose 1.3% in March — unchanged from the previous month and lower than analyst forecasts.

Of course, that was taken as a sign that further easing by the BoJ would be forthcoming...

And round and round it goes... until it stops.

The briefcase in Pulp Fiction ONLY works because we DON’T find out what is in it.

Abe’s third arrow can be loaded into the bow, but it can’t be fired once and for all, because if it IS fired, the game is up. There will still be continual promises of more to come, and markets may buy into that for a while; but, like all central bank-induced “boom times,” Abenomics has a shelf life, and that is nearing an end.

The changes at the GPIF are potentially disastrous, and Kuroda’s BoJ and Abe’s government are desperately trying to MacGyver their way out of an impossible situation, armed only with hollow promises and faith, when what they really need is duct tape and a Swiss army knife.

Abenomics is a plan by which to change Japanese behaviour; but as anyone who has spent any time in that wonderful, perplexing country will tell you, the Japanese do NOT change their behaviour — even when facing a demographic disaster.

Yes, I was thinking similar thoughts when he said there is no option other than immigration reform. Hmmm, engineered MERS virus, thermonuclear war, mandatory suicide, lots of other options for the demographics problem. They'll think about it, what they choose remains to be seen.

Wonder if the Japanese people feel the same pit in their stomach when their gubment lies to them and tells them it's sunshine and unicorns?

I bet they do.

Japan is facing the same thing all of us in the West are, the gubment has spent and borrowed it all, they continue to do more of the same while our standard of living is obliterated, and they come up with new and better clusterf*cks to wipe out more of the Middle and gift it to the ends.

Immigration reform cannot fix resource scarcity.

No jobs, high import expenses, mostly imported goods from food to medicines to energy and computers.

What part of MORE people fixes that?

"Experts" crack me up, yes it would "fix" (by can-kicking once more, if jobs are available) pensions and social security - for a while, it can never be fixed permantly as pensions are fiscal impossibilities no matter how badly we wish it were not true.

But more people won't solve the problem of too few consumer dollars, too few non-government/fiat jobs, and ever-increasing costs to just survive. As a matter of fact, it will make it worse.

No matter, I'm sure we'll keep applying solutions for a different world and time to our modern problems of overcapacity, overpopulation and over-complexity. More capacity, more complexity and more population will surely fix the problems that they have alredy caused.

They have always considered us stupid, so this only confirms it further. It would never dawn on them that the people may know better than they. It always falls back on the religious fervor. Anything is possible if we just believe strongly enough. They are doing it for us.....sure.

The farming mafia JA is a megabank. They control everything from the fertilizer sales to the price offered to the farmers for their products. The farmers still hold a lot of political voting power because the districts were never readjusted to reflect the urban population increase. And this is the LDP's and Abe's base. Any reforms will have to start with destroying JA's power and influence. He can't do it. All he can do is try to get the TPP going, which will serve the same purpose.

The government has allowed agriculture to decline since the war. Currently, Japan can only provide about 35-36% of its food needs even as the government continues to subsidize the JA. However, the TPP would allow the likes of Monsanto, ADM, and other big-Ag companies to purchase/lease large and small tracts of land. It is likely subsidization of the JA would continue in order to buy their support for the TPP. It is also likely that the government would subsidize the foreign big-Ag companies under rules of the TPP which allow foreign companies to sue governments who give benefits to locals that they can not have for themselves.

And, of course, who will work these mega farms? The TPP opens the door for low wage immigration.

What culture? Japanese kids are even worse than American kids with all their gizmos. Kids don't want relationships. There won't be any culture left in 50 years. It will be America except for the language.

I have some Japanese friends, spending time in Toyama a couple of years ago.

Almost 8 months, but enough to see that even in a sleepy place like that somethings worked.

If that retarded moron Abe or for that matter Dumbfucks like Posen ever got to grips with this reality they would have a heart attack

When a factory closed in Toyama that a locals worked at, they shrugged their shoulders were not in least upset and said life just goes on.

They simply figured it like this.

We live here we know everyone here so for us its not too difficult, This gives me much more time to make extra cash, like some bookkeeping or a delivery run as I'm going the same way, not paid in cash but in kind, oh here is a new pair of shoes, or here is some beef or chicken or fix the plumbing and the family is invited to free dinner at the restaurant.

It doesn't matter what rate they raise the consumption tax, if I pay Y1000 now, I will still pay Y1000 after the raise.

HOW? Simply, i cut my hours I work, pay less tax on salary and leave me more free time to help with friends where there is no cash only swap end result give or take, no net change either in hours of tax paid.

As my friend said, we know the local people we can deal with, does Mr Abe know them too.

Does the half witted cretin Posen or any of the other asswipes even understand the ability or intelligent or otherwise fucked over people to counteract what they all see as assholes fucking with their lives.

Trust me, the Japanese are not stupid, they just get on with things and don't make waves, cause a fuss, or play their hand too open.

They do not care what any politician wants, they know what they want and they just figure out ways to get no matter what.

The sad thing is that the great American Moron hasn't figured it out yet

Good story, however, the ending is not entirely correct. On a much smaller scale to be sure, but happening it is. Just like the Japanese, we ain't talking bout it but dropping out of the financial system and simply trading is definitely going on. And, it's growing.

Well from what I've read Japan does have a "norm" that it always returns to but when things get bad enough and they hit a tipping point things can spike pretty weird and violent. What changes have been made are darn near invisible because they were incorporated generations ago. Women with voting rights would be one. ....Sorry about that. Most of Asia doesn't like "interesting times" because that usually involves starvation and plague for the bottom and middle classes. Classic Chinese greeting "Have you eaten today?"

Japanese farmers will hang on to any power they can get for as long as possible, even shortly at the end of WW II some sold their daughters into prostitution to keep the rest of the family from starving to death. Things like that sink in to the bone.

Japan continues to slide towards an economic abyss with each passing day. The writing is on the wall. Japan is facing a wall of debt that can only be addressed by printing more money and debasing their currency.

This means paying off their debt with worthless yen where possible and in many cases defaulting on promises made. Japan's public debt, which stands at around 230% of its gross domestic product (GDP), is the highest in the industrialized world. More on this subject in the article below.

Look bozo, they have no external debt, they owe themselves. We on the other hand have tons of extenal debt and a internal debt to gdp ratio of 108%. Spinning numbers is not your forte, stick to words, the camera, and your forward thinking pain, that's what you are good at.

The aim of every country is to export and suppress imports? Each major dollar competitor is currently having trouble maintaining any focus on increasing its exports and having to suppress internal strife. Meanwhile the trend is favorable for a rockem sockem multi-year ad spend and the most favorable election fight ever? And the fed has been riding the yield curve like a segway and been swapping dollars for kitchens sinks! The future is in the briefcase Ringo!

japan pulled off a post war miracle (ww2) in a similar manner that germany did after ww1 by relying on the strength of their own currency and industrial prowess, but most importantly by resisting the ploys of the european central banks. That was key. The wily japs recognized the machinations of jew dominated international finance for what it was worth. They can continue to dig themselves out of their hole, but at least they are responsible to themselves, and are not beholden to the imf or fed res. That is an important position to have, which is unfortunately NOT the case with ukraine, who is now enslaved and OWNED by the imf and eu. The sacrifice will be high, and the smell of blood will carry far for not casting their lot with russia, who was only out for a proper accounting with a gas bill. The fools- do they not recognize they are trading a mere segment of economic dependancy on another country for absolute tyranny and bloodshed? Simply put, they are being duped and subjected to evil influences who care NOTHING for their sovereignty as russia did.

japan is the logical end of an industrial civilization. it is the future of the world. it it is already in play in europe and russia and will be the savior of countries like china, india and indonesia and southeast asia. the usa uses mexicans and other immigrants to thwart the inevitable and europe has africa but the end is clear.

people are no longer the capital they were in an agrarian society. in an industrial/techno world productivity makes people much less valuable, indeed, a liability with an unknown return. where a child on a farm is productive at pre kindergarten, the industrial kid must be supported at great cost for at least 18 years by law before entering productive life officially. children are simply not a good investment and increasingly diminishing as an emotional asset.

japan has been the most adaptable country of the last century and a half. first there was the meiji restoration leading to the modern japanese empire within 2 generations which led into the "democracy" of post ww2. these facts sort of disable the entire argument of the futility of the abenomics.

two other points are missed also. the office of griping at the pension apparatus is a neccesary ode to japanese culture. the difference in japanese .gov compared to other countries is .gov service is an honorable position with a university dedicated to future .gov managers and politicians. family political dynasties run the show.

the other point has to do with the utterance attributed to abe ridiculed by the author. all abe said was that the only way anyone will go along with structural change is if the first 2 arrows work. in other words he has taken the daring political position of all or nothing. kinda significant even in the lie based american political system.

as concerning demographics, there are things that can be done without immigration. the fact is immigration has only been a stopgap measure and not a solution(more trouble than it is worth?) so goes that argument for japan.

i am still fleshing it out but a successful japan model has everything to do with increasing per capita productivity and not aggregate productivity. human mental and physical skilled robots. the ultimate product. imagine a 5 trillion dollar present value economy run by 60 million people based upon the building of humanoids that replace people functions perhaps right down to credit slavery and consumerism, the ultimate monetary system.

ok, ok. look at the bots japan has pioneered. all of them are meant to replace menial but essential human functions. the people the paper proposes fill those slots are gaijin. everyone knows that once a gaijin, always a gaijin with the possible exception of marriage but not really, which you may not really know unless you are japanese, asking your spouse may not answer the question. he/she may even call you a gaijin in that oh so japanesy passive aggressive way so no goddamed furriners.

these bots, however, are the most incredible product since the car on the mechanical engineering usefulness rating scale. the economic potential is incredible and japan is way ahead of everyone....out of necessity. they have the potential to be the game changer, the disruptor, the new industrial revolution........the end of man.

Grant Williams is certainly right here. However Draghi has had a gun with a bullet he cannot fire for five years now, so Abe's smoke and mirrors may still have legs yet.

But beneath this whole charade I think they are pumping far far more worthless fiat into the system than they say, especially the Fed. I don't buy this taper crap. It's just words on the other side of Draghi.

Draghi says he can, but he can't
Yellen says she isn't, but she is.
Abe says believe me ... But we don't!

First off good for the Japanese for looking after their own people. I cant say the same for the US. We take in more immigrants then any other country and look at the Shit hole it has created. I lived in Japan for 4 years and who works in the 7-11, supermarkets, fastfood places, picks up garbage, builds houses?? 99% Japanese sure there are some that are exploited in theri internship program. Its great get some people work them for 2 years and send them back for new ones. Salaries are a living wages since housing is cheap and so or cars, most supermarket food is reasonable and if you get there about 7m they discount all the sushi and you eat like a king for a few dollars.

Japan is also an island of 127 million its about the size of California. I say they can stand to lose a few people.Dont bring in people that dont care for your country just for cheap labor , its ruined the US and is in the process of ruining Canada, Australia, New Zealand, the UK, Sweden and on and on.

It is of complete idiocy that maturing industrial societies refuse to adapt new ways of running economies within limits of their available resources and cling to the archaic population pyramid scheme. A decline is not a must, if only realities were acknowledged. Desperate immigration policies are similar to Fed´s printing press and kicking the can just a bit further.

Japan is how one knows the central banksters rig everything. Compare Japan and Russia. Debt to GDP, natural resources, etc.. Who gets downgraded? Who sees their markets drop dramatically and the need to prop up their currency? Not Japan, yet they have +300% debt to GDP (and a dying population that will never be able to produce enough to make up for it).... zero natural resource reserves (unless they go to war with China...that would last about 10 minutes), massive ongoing nuclear disaster, the list goes on. S&P should downgrade Japan to junk, and the yen should collapse...but it hasn't. Why? Rigged...the whole game is rigged.

The sins of the parents shall be visited upon the third and fourth generations.Japan’s chickens have come home to roost.Ours are flocking in as we speak.At least the Japanese have the honorable tradition of seppuku when things spiral out of control. We on the other hand have no mechanism for a graceful exit. Our multiculturalism will guarantee that we will tear each other apart.God help us as the sun sets on the age of oil and the western industrial society it produced.

Japs are the living dead in the denial fase. Japs like too fuck up themselves, that's why they are committing sepuke en masse now by still clinging on to the U.S. which essentially is a sinking ship.

Seeking disputes with China when you're fully aware of the fact that China is your most important growing export market, is a bit suicidal just like building nuclear reactors at the coast on tectonic fault lines is. Actually that's 2X suicidal.

"Immigration reform has been widely recognized as the only answer to Japan’s crippling demographic problem for well over three decades. Nothing has been done about it."

That's going to be a huge problem for the Japs who are not used to foreigners at all, who have been keeping themselves isolated from foreigners on that little island for far too long, maybe.