Are you not paying attention to everything else going on in China? They run a surplus with us but are a net debtor to the world. Their economy is slowing. Their domestic consumption is undermining their export promotion policies. They’ve lost control of real estate markets.

These are the death throes of the current economy. And by no means am I pessimistic about China’s potential, just critical of its central planning. By the end of this decade China will collapse like the Soviet Union, and the CCP are already donning their golden parachutes.

Tragic watching them squander the fruits of the greatest economic growth story of modern times. Looking more and more like an invluntary devaluation will be in the works. Does the ChiCom leadership not believe their regime can survive the capital flight a float would allow? Or do they really not understand what they are doing?

Your analysis of fiscal policy and incentives is intriguing, but it suffers from the common belief that governments drive their economies. China is reacting to an economy that is increasingly escaping their grasp. I agree with Dave that they will soon be forced to float their currency. Their export promotion policy is going the same way as Import Substitution Industrialization.

“At any rate you can’t replace social welfare spending with malinvestment. ”

Hmm, are you sure? Couldn’t you describe patronage as either a form of social welfare spending or a malinvestment, depending on your point of view? Sure, it might not be economically optimum, but it could still be sufficient.

I live in Illinois, where we traditionally combine patronage, malinvestment and social welfare spending.

Seriously, though, it really depends how bad the investment is and how much utility the social welfare provides, but China is very poor and has a lot of malinvestment, so at least marginally this has to be a very bad deal.

The first obvious concern is ignoring the scale of the debt to the size of the economy.

Comparing a flow to a stock in this case is not inappropriate. It would be inappropriate the other way around. If you annualized this monthly deficit, the chart would look even worse. The thumb is on the scale against the author’s point.

Evidently easy linking is too much content control for creators vis a vis Twitter as publisher. This is the bad thing about the algorithm, that you cede freedom in exchange for convenience, and who knows what they prioritise? Maybe profits, but there are lots of ways to make profits and some are unseemly, like political bias in favour of de-regulators.

The whole analysis of things seems to be really interesting, but of course there is a lot that we need to find out. We must pay attention to other things as well because if we ignore or forget about it then we could be facing serious trouble. I feel pretty lucky to have http://www.binoptionen.com/ site to look at with their complete platform to not just figure out right strategies, but also to understand where to start up my career with!