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SUMMARY: ARAB OIL BOYCOTT CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN PRESS.
IN GENERAL,EMPHASIS ON SA WEAPONS (CAPE ROUTE AND GOLD) TO
FIGHT BOYCOTT.INFLATIONARY IMPACT AND THREAT TO BUSINESS CON-
FIDENCE ALSO CITED.ROLE OF HOMELAND LEADERS AND NEIGHBORING
BLACK STATES IN OPPOSING BOYCOTT CONTINUES TO BE CITED.END
SUMMARY.
1. SUNDAY EXPRESS POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT CITING "SENIOR POLITICIANS
AND ECONOMISTS" OUTLINED SA WEAPONS TO FIGHT BOYCOTT.
MOST POWERFUL WEAPON SEEN TO BE REFUSAL OF BUNKER FUEL AND OTHER
SUPPLIES TO SHIPS ROUNDING CAPE ENROUTE MIDDLE EAST AND/OR CERTAIN
AFRICAN STATES.IN THIS CONTEXT,POSSIBILITY RAISED OF ACTING
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
PAGE 02 PRETOR 04405 040941Z
IN CONCERT WITH PORTUGAL.SECOND WEAPON SEEN AS GOLD,EITHER
OFFERING GOLD FOR OIL ("THE IDEAL INTRODUCTION TO THE LUCRATIVE
BLACK MARKET IN OIL") OR WITHOLDING GOLD FROM FREE MARKET TO FORCE
UP PRICES TO INTOLERABLE LEVEL THEN OFFERING GOLD AT DISCOUNT
FOR OIL.ARTICLE REASONS THAT ARAB COUNTRIES REQUIRING HIGHER
PERCENTAGE OF PAYMENTS IN GOLD WHICH PLACES THEM LARGELY AT MERCY OF
SA GOLD SELLING POLICY.
2. ACCOMPANYING EDITORIAL FINDS WEAKNESS IN BOYCOTT THREAT
(THERE WAYS OF GETTING THINGS AS SHOWN BY RHODESIA; ARAB UNITY
FRAGILE:BOYCOTT WILL LEAD TO BLACK MARKET WHERE SA CAN GET OIL:
AND ARAB PREFERANCE FOR GOLD).BASIC ARGUMENT,HOWEVER,IS THAT
BOYCOTT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED SINCE"WEST EUROPE WILL NOT RPT NOT
BE PREPARED INDEFINATELY TO HAVE THEIR ECONOMIES AND THEIR ECONO-
MIC GROWTH DESTROYED BY ARAB BLACKMAILERS".ALTHOUGH IT POSSIBLE
BOYCOTT AGAINST SA,RHODESIA AND PORTUGAL WILL CONTINUE ON PAPER,
"SOUTH AFRICAS TRADING ALLIES WILL ALSO HELP ENSURE THAT THE
SA ECONOMY IS NOT BROUGHT DOWN BECAUSE OF A LACK OF OIL."
3. SUNDAY TIMES EDITORIAL REJECTS EFFORTS TO MINIMIZE BOYCOTT
THREAT AND ARGUES THAT ONLY CHANGE IN SA POLICY (I.E. REJECTION
OF NAT GOVERNMENT.) PROVIDES LASTING SOLUTION.HOWEVER, IT NOTES THAT
IF ARABS "FIND THAT THEIR BOYCOTT IS AN EMPTY THREAT,WE IMAGINE
THAT THEY WILL NOT WORRY UNDULY.THEY HAVE MADE THEIR GESTURE TO
THE BLACK AFRICAN STATES AND THAT IS PROBABLY ALL THAT CONCERNS THEM.
4. RAND DAILY MAIL EDITORIAL EMPHAZISES THAT SA LIKELY TO "SUFFER
LESS FROM AN ACTUAL SHORTAGE OF FUEL THAN FROM THE INFLATIONATY
EFEECTS OF GETTING IT,"
5. SABC DEC. 3 MORNING BROADCAST STRESSED ROLE OF HOMELAND
LEADERS AND GOVERNMENT OF SWAZILAND,LESOTHO AND BOTSWANA IN
CONVINCING ARABS AND OTHER AFRICANS OF UNFORTUNATE IMPACT OF
BOYCOTT ON BLACKS,OTHER REPORTS HAVE NOTED THAT POSITION TAKEN
BY KWAZULU CHIEF BUTHLEZI AT ADDIS DIALOGUE CONFERENCE WILL BE
EXTREMLY IMPORTANT.
HURD
UNCLASSIFIED
NNN

Raw content

UNCLASSIFIED
PAGE 01 PRETOR 04405 040941Z
15
ACTION AF-18
INFO OCT-01 ISO-00 NEA-10 EB-11 COME-00 TRSE-00 INT-08
OMB-01 SCEM-02 IO-14 EUR-25 CIAE-00 DODE-00 PM-07
H-03 INR-10 L-03 NSAE-00 NSC-10 PA-04 RSC-01 PRS-01
SPC-03 SS-20 USIA-15 ACDA-19 DRC-01 /187 W
--------------------- 022506
R 040932Z DEC 73
FM AMEMBASSY PRETORIA
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 9005
INFO AMEMBASSY MBABANE
AMEMBASSY MASERU
AMEMBASSY GABORONE
AMCONSUL CAPE TOWN
AMCONSUL DURBAN
AMCONSUL JOHANNESBURG
UNCLAS PRETORIA 4405
E.O. 11652: N/A
TAGS: ENRG, SF
SUBJECT: PRESS REACTIONS TO ARAB OIL BOYCOTT
REF: PRETORIA 4382
SUMMARY: ARAB OIL BOYCOTT CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN PRESS.
IN GENERAL,EMPHASIS ON SA WEAPONS (CAPE ROUTE AND GOLD) TO
FIGHT BOYCOTT.INFLATIONARY IMPACT AND THREAT TO BUSINESS CON-
FIDENCE ALSO CITED.ROLE OF HOMELAND LEADERS AND NEIGHBORING
BLACK STATES IN OPPOSING BOYCOTT CONTINUES TO BE CITED.END
SUMMARY.
1. SUNDAY EXPRESS POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT CITING "SENIOR POLITICIANS
AND ECONOMISTS" OUTLINED SA WEAPONS TO FIGHT BOYCOTT.
MOST POWERFUL WEAPON SEEN TO BE REFUSAL OF BUNKER FUEL AND OTHER
SUPPLIES TO SHIPS ROUNDING CAPE ENROUTE MIDDLE EAST AND/OR CERTAIN
AFRICAN STATES.IN THIS CONTEXT,POSSIBILITY RAISED OF ACTING
UNCLASSIFIED
UNCLASSIFIED
PAGE 02 PRETOR 04405 040941Z
IN CONCERT WITH PORTUGAL.SECOND WEAPON SEEN AS GOLD,EITHER
OFFERING GOLD FOR OIL ("THE IDEAL INTRODUCTION TO THE LUCRATIVE
BLACK MARKET IN OIL") OR WITHOLDING GOLD FROM FREE MARKET TO FORCE
UP PRICES TO INTOLERABLE LEVEL THEN OFFERING GOLD AT DISCOUNT
FOR OIL.ARTICLE REASONS THAT ARAB COUNTRIES REQUIRING HIGHER
PERCENTAGE OF PAYMENTS IN GOLD WHICH PLACES THEM LARGELY AT MERCY OF
SA GOLD SELLING POLICY.
2. ACCOMPANYING EDITORIAL FINDS WEAKNESS IN BOYCOTT THREAT
(THERE WAYS OF GETTING THINGS AS SHOWN BY RHODESIA; ARAB UNITY
FRAGILE:BOYCOTT WILL LEAD TO BLACK MARKET WHERE SA CAN GET OIL:
AND ARAB PREFERANCE FOR GOLD).BASIC ARGUMENT,HOWEVER,IS THAT
BOYCOTT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED SINCE"WEST EUROPE WILL NOT RPT NOT
BE PREPARED INDEFINATELY TO HAVE THEIR ECONOMIES AND THEIR ECONO-
MIC GROWTH DESTROYED BY ARAB BLACKMAILERS".ALTHOUGH IT POSSIBLE
BOYCOTT AGAINST SA,RHODESIA AND PORTUGAL WILL CONTINUE ON PAPER,
"SOUTH AFRICAS TRADING ALLIES WILL ALSO HELP ENSURE THAT THE
SA ECONOMY IS NOT BROUGHT DOWN BECAUSE OF A LACK OF OIL."
3. SUNDAY TIMES EDITORIAL REJECTS EFFORTS TO MINIMIZE BOYCOTT
THREAT AND ARGUES THAT ONLY CHANGE IN SA POLICY (I.E. REJECTION
OF NAT GOVERNMENT.) PROVIDES LASTING SOLUTION.HOWEVER, IT NOTES THAT
IF ARABS "FIND THAT THEIR BOYCOTT IS AN EMPTY THREAT,WE IMAGINE
THAT THEY WILL NOT WORRY UNDULY.THEY HAVE MADE THEIR GESTURE TO
THE BLACK AFRICAN STATES AND THAT IS PROBABLY ALL THAT CONCERNS THEM.
4. RAND DAILY MAIL EDITORIAL EMPHAZISES THAT SA LIKELY TO "SUFFER
LESS FROM AN ACTUAL SHORTAGE OF FUEL THAN FROM THE INFLATIONATY
EFEECTS OF GETTING IT,"
5. SABC DEC. 3 MORNING BROADCAST STRESSED ROLE OF HOMELAND
LEADERS AND GOVERNMENT OF SWAZILAND,LESOTHO AND BOTSWANA IN
CONVINCING ARABS AND OTHER AFRICANS OF UNFORTUNATE IMPACT OF
BOYCOTT ON BLACKS,OTHER REPORTS HAVE NOTED THAT POSITION TAKEN
BY KWAZULU CHIEF BUTHLEZI AT ADDIS DIALOGUE CONFERENCE WILL BE
EXTREMLY IMPORTANT.
HURD
UNCLASSIFIED
NNN