Can a lady in the water turn the box office tide against Capt. Jack Sparrow? Which one of the Wilson brothers will get bragging rights? And how will the slackers in “Clerks II” fare with moviegoers after a 12-year gap since the first film?

“Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest” is expected to become the first 2006 release to sail over the $300 million mark this weekend as it tries to hang on and become the No. 1 movie in the marketplace for three straight weeks. No other movie this year has managed a three-peat.

The only one of four new releases even being given a chance to dislodge “Pirates” is “Lady in the Water,” the latest movie from M. Night Shyamalan that is being released by Warner Bros.

“It could be `Lady’ vs. `Pirates”‘ Gitesh Pandya, editor of BoxOfficeGuru.com said Thursday. “`Pirates’ will probably finish in the low $30 (millions) and `Lady’ could open in the same vicinity.”

“Lady” marks the first time a Shyamalan-directed movie is being released by Warners. His previous four hits, “The Sixth Sense,” “Unbreakable,” “Signs” and “The Village” were released by Disney, with which the filmmaker had a highly publicized falling out over his latest movie.

“`The Village’ opened at $50 million, but I don’t see `Lady’ doing as well,” Pandya said. “For one thing, it’s in 3,200 theaters while `The Village’ opened in 3,700.”

Other new releases include the animated “Monster House” from Sony, “My Super Ex-Girlfriend” starring Uma Thurman and Luke Wilson from Fox, and MGM’s “Clerks II.”

The four new titles will make for an already crowded marketplace that also includes two popular comedies, “You, Me and Dupree” (co-starring Owen Wilson) and “Little Man,” which are only in their second weekends while “Superman Returns,” “The Devil Wears Prada,” “Click” and “Cars” still have life left in them.

“Last month, we had four pictures open on the same weekend (“Nacho Libre,” “The Lake House,” “Garfield 2” and “The Fast and The Furious: Tokyo Drift”) and usually none of those pictures are meant to be blockbusters. They are generally more niche in appeal and likely to have mid-range numbers at best,” said Brandon Gray, president of Box Office Mojo.

Of this weekend’s openers though, Pandya thinks “Monster House” could do solid business since it is the only new family title out since the release of “Cars” last month.

“Kids are always a strong audience to tap into in the summertime,” he said. “Parents are always looking for something to take them to.”

“Monster House” will have to make much of its money this weekend since next weekend kids will be targeted again with the animated “The Ant Bully,” followed the week after by another animated title, “The Barnyard.”

“It’s unwise to put them on top of each other like this,” Pandya said.

“Super Ex-Girlfriend” will be after some of the same moviegoers that “Dupree” would appeal to, putting siblings Owen and Luke Wilson on a box-office collision course.

Pandya believes that since these four new films are all so different from each other, that should bring more patrons to theaters overall instead of cannibalizing each other’s business.

“All four of the new movies seem very interesting and `Clerks II’ has a built-in audience,” he said. “All four look like they have a shot at making some money.”

But the real money, the record-setting money, continues to be made by “Pirates,” which as of Wednesday had earned $280.2 million domestically after just 13 days in theaters. The film has racked up numerous box office records, including biggest opening day and weekend ever, fastest film to earn $100 million and fastest film to earn $200 million.

“It seems like $400 million-plus is becoming more of a certainty for this picture,” Gray said. Only six films have ever crossed the $400 million mark domestically (“Titanic,” “Star Wars,” “Shrek 2,” “E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial,” “Star Wars: Episode I – The Phantom Menace” and “Spider-Man”), and no movie has made more than $500 million except for “Titanic,” which is the all-time domestic box office champ with a take of $600.8 million.

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