Three nights left in the regular season. Looking at projection reports, there are 10 conferences where not a single team has a projection of 64 or lower on the current round of reports. Whoever wins these leagues will "eat" an at-large spot from someone projecting to the top 64, bumping the NT cutoff up to 54. Five more leagues have only one team projecting into the top 64, leaving them very susceptible to conference tournament upsets that could possibly eat another at-large slot. So, right now we'd be looking at a "last in" cutoff between 49 and 54. Which would be appropriate since I'm sitting at 52 currently...

ASC — #4 Texas Lutheran (blapo21) goes undefeated through a strong league and it wasn’t even close. Closest league contest was a 28-point win over #17 Hardin-Simmons. Nine championship banners in 10 seasons for blapo, who clearly is right at home in the Lone Star State.

Capital — Catholic (shineenihs) runs the table and goes undefeated to the conference tourney. Not bad for shine’s first season at the helm. Catholic has gone 16-0 in the last two conference seasons.

Centennial — #24 Ursinus (barjaz) goes undefeated for the second consecutive season, continuing an impressive run of conference titles for barjaz and Ursinus.

CUNY — Staten Island and Medgar Evers (both Sims) each went 13-3 in league play and split their two games with each other to split top honors in the CUNY. It’s the first banner hanging at Medgar Evers since season 19.

CCIW — #16 Martin Luther (albatross1) and Northland (raucous) go 15-1, splitting their games with each other, to share top billing this year. It is the first banner in four seasons for Northland.

Coast — Wentworth (chewchad) runs the table. For those losing count, this would be 36 straight conference titles on the wall by chad.

Commonwealth — #2 Susquehanna (zeuspole) goes 16-for-16 in league play. Hard to believe, but it’s the first time in three years zeuspole has had a banner to throw on the gym wall.

Empire — Union (jtgraves) finishes 16-0. This will be their first league title in six seasons as jtgraves get a gorilla off his back.

Freedom — Drew (sim) finishes 13-3 to win the conference by two games. That’s three straight titles for Drew, all of which have been accomplished by simmy.

GNE — #1 Johnson and Wales (spasticity) finished 14-2 in conference play to win by a game. Conference titles aren’t the sort of things they get excited about at JW, which has won three of the last four national titles, but this is the fourth consecutive one spasticity’s crew.

Heartland — #17 Defiance (nm1brownsfan) wins with a four-game cusion in the Heartland. That’s four consecutive undefeated league seasons for Defiance, which seemed to not skip a beat in the first season under their new head coach.

Little East — #8 UMass, Dartmouth (docwooden) runs the table to finish with a three-game victory margin in the Little East. Back to back banners is just what the doc has ordered.

Michigan — #19 Calvin (prc56) finishes as the top team by a game after going 15-1. This is the seventh conference title that he’s won in a row.

Midwest — Beloit (sim) finishes 13-3 to win the league by a game. It’s the first banner raised in Beloit since Season 55.

MInnesota — St. Olaf (sim) goes 15-1, winning by two games. The last time St. Olaf won 15 conference games in a year? Season 16...

NESCAC — #21 Bates (boilerblack) wins by two games over the rest of the field, finishing with a 14-2 league record. Bates has seen plenty of postseason action in recent years, but this is their first conference banner since Season 55.

New Jersey — Rutgers at Newark (sim) goes 15-1 and wins the New Jersey by two games. That’s back to back simmed conference titles for R@N.

N. Atlantic — Johnson St. (mrtickles) goes 15-1 to win by a game. Another head coach celebrating back-to-back conference titles.

NCAC — #12 Wooster (pseudochamp) wins the North Coast by a two-game margin. That’s three straight league titles for pseudochamp.

Northwest — George Fox (sim) and Whitworth (tim_buggie) each finish at 13-3, one game better than two other programs in one of the best league races in the nation. Whitworth won the head-to-head game between the teams, earning Whitworth his first league title in seven seasons.

Ohio — John Carroll (whit6r) goes 15-1 to win the Ohio by one game. John Carroll is now 31-1 over the last two years in conference games.

ODAC — Lynchburg (barney1974) sweeps the conference campaign. This is the seventh year in a row that Lynchburg has gone 15-1 or better in conference play.

Penn — Misericordia (sim), Springfield (sim) and Babson (irishdomer) each go 12-4 to share top-record bragging rights with two teams chasing one game behind. Springfield went 3-1 in the common games, earning its first banner in eight years. Babson was 2-2 in common games and Misericordia 1-3 in games involving the tied teams.

Skyline — #3 US Merchant Marines (lynchmob1414) sweeps the conference for the second consecutive season and hangs his seventh straight league banner.

So. Cal — #11 Whittier (windixies) goes 15-1 to win his conference by one game. This is the first conference title in three years for Whittier.

St. Louis — Webster (mschulte24) climbs back on top of the conference after a one-year absence. Webster went 14-2 in league play.

SUNY — SUNY Potsdam (sim) goes 15-1 and wins the SUNY by one game. This is back-to-back simmed titles for Potsdam.

University — #7 Ozarks (spike101) finishes 14-2 and one game better than two challengers in the tough University. After taking Ozarks to the postseason for the first time in 29 years last season, now spike has Ozarks hanging a conference champion’s banner for the first time in 26 seasons.

Upstate — #23 RPI (dynastydan) and Washington(MO) (sim) each finish at 14-2 to share best-record honors in the Upstate. Washington won the head-to-head in overtime, giving them top bragging rights. You have to go back to chartreuse’s magical Final Four run in Season 59 to find Washington’s last league banner.

USA South — Greensboro (tilldog28) and #6 North Carolina Wesleyan (nastynick60) each went 15-1 to score the top league record. NCWC won the head-to-head game and nick now has back-to-back conference titles.

Wisconsin — #25 Wisconsin Superior and Wisconsin Oshkosh (both simmed). Superior won the head-to-head and has its second straight conference title.

That's awesome. In regulation, Emerson hits a 3 pointer with 3 seconds to go. Then in OT1, St. Joes hits a 3 pointer with 1 second.... OT 3 + 4 both had blocked shots with 2 seconds and 6 seconds.... Impressive foul totals and minutes played by some guys (one guy played 62 min.)

I also love a few travel calls toward the end of the games.... that would suck. I hate that freaking call.

LAST-IN PROJECTION -- There are 10 conferences whose tournament champions will likely be ranked 65+ in the projection report, bumping the break line to 54. This move creates two more conferences where the champion will steal a tournament spot from another at-large, moving the cut to 52. There are currently seven conferences then that feature championship games where one of the two teams is ranked 52+ on the current projection report, meaning that based on the outcome they, too, might steal a spot in the national tournament field from another at-large. Therefore, I project that all teams ranked 45 or lower in tonight's projection report should be in the national tournament field. Those ranked 46-52 are at risk currently. Those ranked 53+ can sit by the phone and join me in waiting for a call from the PIT selection committee.

Midwest Region -- I'll just come out and say it. When it comes to top-end talent and ability in the teams, this region is possibly the strongest of any region I've seen since I began analyzing the tournament. My weighted team ratings for this region are simply off the charts. It starts with the two top seeds here, Johnson and Wales and UMass Dartmouth. That was my preseason guess for national championship game. Now one of those teams isn't going to make the Final Four. And don't ink it in for a regional final either. Louisiana has good numbers, but seven losses. Whittier isn't shabby either and way down there at the 7 seed is Shenandoah, which has losses to two off the upper seeds in this region, but also a victory over East No. 1 North Carolina Wesleyan.
My pick: Johnson and Wales by a whisker over UMass Dartmouth. And I'm pulling really hard for the bracket to hold shape so we all get treated to that one.

East Region -- Texas Lutheran jumps out at me analyzing this region. This is a team that cut through the ASC this season like a hot knife through butter and whose only regular-season loss came by seven points against South No. 1 Susquehanna…until they lost by 10 in the conference championship game to Hardin-Simmons. Still, I like the body of work rather than the exception to the season norm at the end of things. Likely challengers could be CSU, Eastbay and Suffolk. Seventh-seeded Ursinus will also be a scary draw. That's no disrespect to top-seeded N. Carolina Wesleyan, but you have to throw a gauntlet down now and then to make these write-ups interesting and they look like a vulnerable No. 1 seed.
My pick: Texas Lutheran over CSU, Eastbay

South Region -- There's one team that stands out a bit above the others to me, but then there are four very solid candidates to challenge. U.S. Merchant Marines is my pick to win the region. They got blown out by Texas Lutheran to open the year, but then only have a one-point loss to Ursinus as a dent to their record. Nobody else has come within 10 points. Challenging, I'll look at, obviously, Susquehanna, whose only loss has been to East No. 2 Suffolk. Southwestern, which has six losses but lost them all to teams seeded 2 or higher on the national bracket, will be tough, and then there's the one-two GNE gut punch of Rivier and S. Vermont sitting at 5-6 that could start making life interesting in round 2.
My pick: US Merchant Marines over Susquehanna in a street fight.

West Region -- This is an interesting region in that none of these teams really pop off the page at me. Piedmont is another potentially annoying seventh seed, but without bunkerbuster coaching and the school under Sim control, I don't think they'll be a threat to advance. By default, I'll support the No. 1 seed Emmanuel. The next-best challenger might be Hardin-Simmons, the 4 seed. Three of their four losses were to teams seeded 3 or higher and the win over Texas Lutheran is an eye-opener. Penn St. Altoona and Colorado are also worthy of consideration. Ozarks strikes me as being a season away from greatness on this stage.
My pick: Emmanuel over Penn St. Altoona.

Final Four -- So that gives me Johnson and Wales vs. Texas Lutheran and US Merchant Marine vs. Emmanuel in the Final Four. Two GNE teams, one ASC team and whoever looks best from the leftover that can get there…that looks about right for a Final Four recipe in Rupp in recent years. Both GNE teams are coached by guys with national championships. blapo's never taken Texas Lutheran beyond the Elite Eight. lynchmob hasn't led Merchant Marine beyond the Sweet 16. Forget all that…my national title game is Texas Lutheran vs. US Merchant Marine, with the hardware headed back to the ASC as blapo wins it all.

Midwest Region -- Top-seed JW shoots nearly 60 percent from the floor and forces 24 turnovers in a 91-50 destruction of Concordia, Moorhead. Jay Bird with a 16 points, 10 boards. Union rallies from seven points down at the half to pull the "upset" in the 8-9 coin flip game, 91-84 in overtime over Wabash. Both teams missed chances to win in the final 41 seconds of regulation. Union outscores Wabash 7-0 in the final 1:17 of OT. Defiance used 24 points from Ben Mitchell to power past DIckinson 87-66. Louisiana needed 52 second half points to erase an 11-point halftime deficit and advance 77-72 past upset-minded E. Oregon. Louisiana hit 15-for-23 from the field in the second half and also got to the foul line 24 times after intermission. Johnnie Hester with 20 points in the win. In the biggest upset of Round 1, Webster, the 11-seed, gets 25 points from Steven Cameron and another 22 from Brad Hitz to pull away from Bates 99-82. Third-seed Whittier jumped to a big lead over Rutgers at Newark and nursed it in the second half to an 82-71 win. Lynchburg watched as Shenandoah's Harold Adams canned a 3 with four seconds remaining to force overtime, but then controlled matters in a 62-55 victory as the 10-seed. Second-seed UMass Dartmouth gave fans lots of nervous moments, leading by just 3 with two minutes to play, but holding on for a 75-68 victory.
Games tonight: 1. Johnson and Wales v. 9. Union, 5. Defiance v. 4. Louisiana, 11. Webster v. 3. Whittier, 10. Lynchburg v. 2. UMass Dartmouth.

East Region -- Top-seed North Carolina Wesleyan took offense to being called vulnerable and swamped the US Coast Guard behind 23 points from Jamie Mays. Emory had 23 points from Jonathan Johnson in a 73-59 victory over Connecticut in the 8-9 coin flip. Newbury held Simpson to just 22 first-half points in a 65-54 victory. CSU, Eastbay fans watched as Elizabethtown almost fought back from a 12-point second half gap, but their team held on 73-69 to dodge upset. Chris Pittman with 21 points and six dimes for Eastbay. Martin Luther managed to score just four points in the final 7 minutes of its game against Wisconsin-Superior, but still advanced 53-48. Martin Luther had led by 17 points at one stage of the second half before the scoring freeze made the game appear closer. Texas Lutheran got out to a double-digit halftime lead, but could never put away Wentworth in a 68-58 game. Wentworth was never closer than six in the second half,but never allowed TL to pull away either. Ursinus advanced 77-70 over Willamette. Willamette was always within striking distance in the second half, but never led. The closest they got was one point with 2:29 to play. Suffolk scored 18 points off Johnson St. turnovers in the second half to avoid embarrassment as the No. 2 seed, 75-65. Johnson State carried a 35-34 lead into the half.
Games tonight: 1. North Carolina Wesleyan v. 8. Emory, 5. Newbury v. 4. CSU, Eastbay, 6. Martin Luther v. 3. Texas Lutheran, 7. Ursinus v. 2. Suffolk.

South Region -- Susquehanna forced 27 turnovers and looked scary-good in a 97-59 rout of Staten Island. Mark Schmidt with 25 points and Thomas Wilkins nets a double-double with 15 points, 10 boards for the No. 1 seed. Greensboro outruns Austin 99-89 in the mild 8-9 upset. Eric Yeoman with 23 points for the victors. Rivier gave Illinois Wesleyan a first-half it would prefer to forget in a 56-46 win. IW had just 15 points -- and 10 turnovers -- at intermission. Jeffrey Stone made four free throws in the final 30 seconds as Wooster rallied for a 73-70 victory over upset-minded RPI. Wooster, which trailed by nine at the half, did not lead in the second half until Stone canned a pair of foul shots with 30 seconds to play. After a steal, he added two more with 8 seconds remaining and RPI's shot for a game-tying 3 at the buzzer clanged harmlessly away. S. Vermont watched a 15-point second half lead evaporate before scoring the final five points in a 61-56 escape of Buena Vista. Southwestern forced 18 second-half turnovers to stuff the John Carroll offense 69-50, leaving whit6r just 99 more seasons to make good on his vow of a national title this Rupp century ;). Catholic, the final unbeaten team in Rupp, pulled the "upset" of Whitworth 61-58 after outscoring them 10-5 during the final 4 minutes. Scott Buganski with 20 points an 0 invisible girlfriends for Cetholic. US Merchant Marine rolls 88-55 after holding Medaille to 36.4 percent shooting from the floor.
Games tonight: 1. Susquehanna v. 9. Greensboro, 5. Rivier v. 4. Wooster, 6. S. Vermont v. 3. Southwestern, 10. Catholic v. 2. US Merchant Marine.

West Region -- Babson went just 3-for-16 from the floor in the second half as top-seeded Emmanuel won 60-40. Colorado got 22 points from Jay George and turned the ball over just seven times in a 57-46 win over Northland. Clavin got 23 points from Terrance Richardson in a 90-80 victory over Concordia (WI) that featured a free throw every 40 seconds. Hardin-Simmons menaced East Connecticut St. into 21 turnovers to offset a 36-percent shooting night and advance 70-60. Thomas Rivers had 25 points in the win. Emerson owned a 27-18 rebounding advantage in its 54-45 victory over Wittenberg. Emerson needed a 13-1 run midway through the second half to take control of matters. Defense remained on display in the South as Penn St. Altoona held Beloit to 30.4 percent shooting and forced 25 turnovers in a 74-45 blowout. Piedmont used 53 bench points and a defense that forced 25 turnovers to race past Transylvania 88-66. Ozarks, which I said was a year away from greatness on this stage, said 'screw that, we're here now!' and forced 24 turnovers while shooting nearly 54 percent in an 82-52 thumping of New York U.
Games tonight: 1. Emmanuel v. 8. Colorado, 5. Calvin v. 4. Hardin-Simmons, 6. Emerson v. 3. Penn St. Altoona, 7. Piedmont v. 2. Ozarks.