What sort of shape is the Oilers’ blue line in? Is it good enough to play if/when NHL hockey returns?

Planning

In 2011-12, the average NHL team used 10 different defencemen over the course of the season. Eight of those players appeared in 25+ games, getting a significant role on the blue line; seven played in at least 40 contests. These numbers are in the ballpark with figures for previous years.

I think the necessary reaction to those numbers for an NHL general manager is obvious. Each year, his team needs seven guys he can count on to play regularly, and eight guys who can play at the NHL level without getting embarrassed. He also needs at least two more guys – good prospects who aren’t quite ready or steady AHL veterans who can take spot duty – to fill in as required.

(Note: Since the totals quoted above are averages, some teams will need more than 10 defencemen, others less. However, each team only has so much room at the AHL level and under the 50-contract maximum, so it doesn’t make sense to plan for the worst-case scenario: for low-level defenders there’s generally a mid-season trade/waiver option if the situation gets really desperate.)

The Oilers

Last season the Oilers used more than the average number of defencemen. Here’s how they break down by games played:

The health concerns involving Ryan Whitney meant that this should have been expected; he was hurt early and often and the signs were there in the summer.

It seems fair to say that the Oilers’ 2011-12 blue-line was suboptimal. They gambled on Whitney and reclamation project Cam Barker, and lost both bets. They found a pleasant surprise in Corey Potter, but ended up leaning too much on (ideally) third-pairing types like Potter, Theo Peckham and Andy Sutton (though Sutton was another pleasant surprise, authoring his best campaign in years). Colten Teubert proved to be unready for his 24-game audition. There were also problems at the top of the depth chart, but as those are more difficult to solve it does not make sense to belabor the point.

What does the depth chart look like right now? If we imagined a full NHL season ahead, here’s what the games played might look like if the Oilers used a league-average number of defencemen:

I would submit that the above list isn’t good enough, thanks in part to the Sutton injury. Corey Potter is minus-2 on the best team in Austria and even before the lockout should not have been slotted anywhere higher than seventh on the depth chart; Theo Peckham too is problematic if slotted higher than seventh. Colten Teubert is in a tougher spot because he needs to get development time but he really does not seem ready for regular NHL employment; despite positive press about his enforcer abilities he’s really only been a decent defender at the AHL level and I’m betting he’d be exposed in the NHL in the same way he was last year. Fedun would probably be fine in spot duty but Marincin is a ‘best of bad options’ choice - he shouldn’t be a guy expected to play any NHL minutes this early and the alternatives are worse.

The list gets a little better if we project forward to 2013-14 and add in prospect Oscar Klefbom:

One wrinkle worth considering is Teubert’s waiver exemption: under the current rules he would seem to need to clear waivers in the fall of 2013 and so the Oilers might want to keep him on the NHL roster. That would mean keeping eight guys on the NHL roster or shipping out Theo Peckham; I would guess the latter move. It’s a concern because I really don’t see Teubert as ready for NHL work; I’d be tempted to either trade him or risk sneaking him through waivers.

Problems persist, however. Theo Peckham has only played four ECHL games this year and banking on him in a top-seven role could be problematic (particularly given his conditioning history). I have similar concerns with regard to Corey Potter.

I suspect a lot of teams are going to have defensive depth issues if NHL hockey resumes in January – there are lots of players sitting and I don’t know that the Oilers will be able to do much other than moving ahead with what they have (over a shorter season, fewer defenders will be needed so it’s also less of an issue). I do think the Oilers dodged a bit of a bullet – they should have done more this summer and thanks to the lockout they haven’t paid a price for it. I also think that the status quo should not be nearly good enough in the summer: Steve Tambellini needs to clear out some of the deadwood at the bottom of the NHL roster and bring in a couple of guys capable of doing the kind of job Andy Sutton did a year ago.

Jonathan Willis is a freelance writer.
He currently works for Oilers Nation, Sportsnet, the Edmonton Journal and Bleacher Report.
He's co-written three books and worked for myriad websites, including Grantland, ESPN, The Score, and Hockey Prospectus. He was previously the founder and managing editor of Copper & Blue.

Why is Whitney not playing somewhere? At least this would give us some data points, to understand where he will slot in for whatever hockey is played this year. As it is, we do not know if he is rehabbing (seems unlikely still), afraid to show the world how much he has lost, or afraid to get a boo boo by playing (keeping his powder dry). None of those seem very positive possibilities.

I think it is impossible to understand what things will look like on the blue before we know the nitty gritty of any new CBA. Cap number, amnesty buy outs, etc. There will probably be some creative packaging of real players combined with big cap hit buy out option players. For instance Gomez might come with Subban. I am sure that someone elses nightmare coming to us in a trade is going to be the amnesty buy out, not Horcoff who is still a servicable player.

Having a creative GM is the key. Lets hope the 3 musketeers can manage that role between them.

I'd bet Whitney isn't playing anywhere because the insurance premium he'd have to take out would be a ridiculous amount of money.

Ok dude - consider:
1. Chicago won one cup - that's a waste of a rebuild .... One and done !
2. Vancouver missed their window and are stuck with unproven playoff vets.
3. Minny has never won ANYTHING; Parise and Suter are Americans !
4. LA; everything fell into place and they are the perfect example.

Edmonton consideration:
1. TOP 2 WJC team Captains are Oilers.
2. Eberle is a young beast (we agree) and take him over Parise any day.
3. Hall is healthy and showing it in OKC.
4. Schultz appears to be the real deal with 40+ points - Suter comp TBD
5. Dubbie managed to hold down SC job.
6. Gagner with (bunch of scoring wingers) should be fine as you say.
7. Oilers will draft/trade/sign to fill holes as that's how LA got it done.

Thanks for the weak note as it shows your just jealous of the Oil ..... Cheers!

Good Post. Its funny how Gagner now is a bust and would never be that second line centre the oil needs.....Remember Ryan Kesler? he didnt produce until he was 25 years old.....but hey the Canucks have so many cups and were built right to win the Cup......good one DSF!

Ahh, Drivel Spouting Fool, DSF, is once again here to remind us how futile it is to cheer for the Oil! It is getting real old. Yes the Oil have holes . No they will not be a threat for the Cup for years, and on and on. We all know it and understand. Go back to sucking your thumb.

yet, here he is, day after day after day, posting on an oilers related site full of oilers fans.

you need to put his comments into context. for example, we heard (for days on end) Schultz wont sign in Edmonton. he will sign in Toronto or Vancouver. good grief you must be an idiot to think Schultz will sign in Edmonton...

find something...harp on it...throw out random player comparisons..harp on it... have your BS called...ignore it...have it called again...disappear for a few days until that article goes to the 2nd page...find something new..harp on it...wash rinse repeat.

We added Justin Schultz in the offseason, a future cornerstone to our Defence. We cant ignore the massive addition he is to our blueline. Imagine the offseason if we had not signed him, now that would be scary.

We added Nick Shultz who is a steady dependable defenceman, his addition cannot be overlooked.

So I would say it is safe to say the Defence is trending up. Even the most pessimistic observer would agree to that. Now package Magnus, Omark, Anaheims Second and bring in a #3/#4 type for depth and we arent looking so bad.

I'm not sure I completely follow your logic as it pertains to the Wild's "bright" future to come... By my math they will have around $33.56 million tied up with 7 players(Koivu, Brodziak, Parise, Setoguchi, Gilbert, Suter and Harding) for the 2013-14 season.

I'm going to assume Heatley's $7.5 million will be bought out and off the books and Backstrom's $6 million comes off as well(UFA) With a potential $60-62 million cap next season(13-14), which is aiming a little high I believe, that leaves $26.44-28.44 million for 16 players.

Due to Harding's unfortunate health situation, I'm not sure how much faith you can put in him as an NHL starter.(I certainly hope he continues to have a long, great career) So how much will it cost to replace Backstrom? $3 million on the cheap side?

$23.44-25.44 million for two-thirds of an effective 2nd line, trustworthy 3rd and 4th lines and #3 to #7 D men doesn't seem like enough to me for a SC contender...