The provisional trend estimate of the balance on goods and services was a deficit of $1,636m in April 2005. A trend break correction of $600m has been applied in April 2005 to non-rural and other goods credits - see page 2 for more details.

In original terms, the April balance on goods and services was a deficit of $1,469m, a decrease of $663m on the deficit in March. Goods and services credits rose $900m (7%) and goods and services debits rose $237m (2%).

NOTES

REVISIONS

Revisions and timing adjustments for civil aircraft have been incorporated into estimates of the imports of goods and services since the previous issue of this publication. These changes increase the imports of civil aircraft in the months of November and December 2004. These aircraft had originally been excluded as the ABS was initially advised that they were under operating lease arrangements, with ownership remaining with a foreign entity. These revisions were reflected in the March quarter 2005 issue of Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, Australia (cat. no. 5302.0), which was released on 31 May 2005.

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

The prices of some non-rural export commodities have significantly increased in April 2005 although the volumes of exports of these commodities remained relatively unchanged. This is apparent in the large value observed in the original estimates for April 2005. It is expected that the increased prices will continue to apply and will result in a shift in level of the current price measures of non-rural and other goods. The seasonally adjusted estimates also reflect the level shift resulting from the increase prices but the impact of this increase has been taken into account in determining the concurrent seasonal factors.

Since the price increase impact is likely to result in a permanent change in the level of the series (at least for the duration of the current contracts), an estimated trend break correction of $600m has been applied in April 2005. As a minimum of three months are required for a trend break correction to be accurately estimated using time series techniques, the size of the trend break may be revised. Therefore, users should interpret the trend estimates for recent months with some caution. The April 2005 trend observation is not visible in the charts in this issue affected by the trend break.

CHANGE TO AUSSTATS TABLES

As advised to AusStats clients with the March 2005 issue of this publication, AusStats tables 1 to 36 are now only presented as excel spreadsheets (i.e. in .xls format). This format replaces the previous time series spreadsheets that were produced in .wks (lotus) format.

INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Artur Andrysiak on Canberra (02) 6252 6792.

ANALYSIS AND COMMENTS

BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of the balance on goods and services in April 2005 was a deficit of $1,636m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services in April 2005 was a deficit of $1,325m, a decrease of $1,310m on the deficit in March.

EXPORTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The trend estimate of goods and services credits rose $719m between March and April to $14,292m after a trend break correction of $600m.

Movements in the original series contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted terms were:

other rural, up $97m (12%), in contrast to an average March to April fall of 7% over the previous three years

meat and meat preparations, down $13m (2%), compared with an average March to April fall of 10% over the previous three years

wool and sheepskins, down $9m (4%), compared with an average March to April fall of 23% over the previous three years.

Partly offsetting these effects were cereal grains and cereal preparations, up $9m (2%), compared with an average March to April rise of 17% over the previous three years.

Exports of goods continued

Non-rural and other goods

The trend estimate of non-rural and other goods exports rose $692m to $9,161m after a trend break correction of $600m.

In seasonally adjusted terms, exports of non-rural and other goods rose $1,167m (14%) to $9,448m.

In original terms, exports of non-rural and other goods rose $964m (12%) to $9,312m.

Movements in the original series contributing to the rise in seasonally adjusted terms were:

coal, coke and briquettes, up $435m (35%), compared with an average March to April rise of 2% over the previous three years (metalurgical coal prices rose 39% and volumes fell 1% between March and April)

metal ores and minerals, up $288m (18%), in contrast to an average March to April fall of less than 1% over the previous three years (non-agglomerated iron ore prices rose 41% and volumes fell 6% between March and April)

transport equipment, up $119m (28%), in contrast to an average March to April fall of 21% over the previous three years

metals (excl. gold), up $130m (18%), in contrast to an average March to April fall of 11% over the previous three years

other mineral fuels, up $89m (10%), in contrast to an average March to April fall of 8% over the previous three years

other manufactures, up $23m (2%), in contrast to an average March to April fall of 10% over the previous three years.

Partly offsetting these effects were other non-rural, down $128m (13%), compared with an average March to April fall of less than 1% over the previous three years.

Exports of services

SERVICES CREDITS

In trend terms, services credits rose $21m (1%) to $3,109m.

Seasonally adjusted, services credits fell $63m (2%) to $3,055m.

Movements in the seasonally adjusted components contributing to this fall were:

In original terms, imports of consumption goods rose $180m (5%) to $3,881m.

The main movement in the original series contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted terms was consumption goods n.e.s., down $67m (6%), in contrast to an average March to April rise of 7% over the previous three years.

Partly offsetting this effect were:

non-industrial transport equipment, up $140m (13%), compared with an average March to April rise of 5% over the previous three years

textiles, clothing and footwear, up $53m (12%), in contrast to an average March to April fall of 1% over the previous three years.

Capital goods

The trend estimate of imports of capital goods rose marginally to $2,972m.

In original terms, imports of capital goods fell $64m (2%) to $2,832m.

The fall in the value of imports of capital goods in original terms is influenced by the fact that the number of effective trading days in April 2005 was lower than that in March 2005. To account for this difference, an adjustment of about 11 percentage points was applied prior to deriving the seasonally adjusted estimates.

The following commodity groups had the largest deviation from their three year average movement:

automatic data processing equipment, down $34m (6%), compared with an average March to April fall of 2% over the previous three years

industrial transport equipment n.e.s., up $21m (5%), compared with an average March to April rise of 11% over the previous three years.

Intermediate and Other Goods

The trend estimate of imports of intermediate and other goods rose $47m (1%) to $5,789m.

In original terms, imports of intermediate and other goods fell $58m (1%) to $5,994m.

Movements in the original series contributing to the fall in seasonally adjusted terms were:

organic and inorganic chemicals, down $48m (13%), compared with an average March to April fall of 2% over the previous three years

other goods, down $54m (12%), compared with an average March to April fall of 4% over the previous three years

other parts for capital goods, down $64m (8%), compared with an average March to April fall of 3% over the previous three years

primary industrial supplies n.e.s., down $12m (12%), compared with an average March to April fall of less than 1% over the previous three years.

Partly offsetting these effects were:

other merchandise goods, up $86m (126%), compared with an average March to April rise of 11% over the previous three years

fuels and lubricants, down $22m (2%), compared with an average March to April fall of 4% over the previous three years (crude petroleum volumes fell 23% following volume growth of 29% in March, while prices rose 13% between March and April).

Imports of services

SERVICES DEBITS

In trend terms, services debits fell $9m to $3,116m.

Seasonally adjusted, services debits rose $52m (2%) to $3,105m.

Movements in the seasonally adjusted components contributing to this rise were:

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