Monday, November 9, 2015

Moscow Seen Laying Groundwork to Annex Belarus, Open Second Front against Ukraine Next Year

Paul
Goble

Staunton, November 9 -- For Vladimir Putin, Viktor Kaspruk argues, “Ukraine
is the key to a future Russia or more precisely a future Russian Empire,” and
consequently, even if he has lowered the temperature in the Donbas in recent
weeks, the Kremlin leader is likely to renew his attacks on Ukraine next year
having first moved to annex Belarus.

In a commentary for Radio Liberty’s
Belarusian Service, Kaspruk argues that “if Putin begins thinking about opening
a second front for an attack onUkraine, then it would not be possible for him
to find a better place des armes for that than a Belarus occupied by Russia” (radiosvoboda.org/content/article/27347490.html).

Such
a move, the Ukrainian political analyst says, would be extremely popular in Russia. “On a wave of hurrah
patriotism, euphoria from ‘getting up from its knees,’ and the PR bombing in
Syria, the consciousness of Russians has completely atrophied. Therefore it
would support with joy the next political adventure of Putin – the return of
Belarus ‘home’ to Russia.”

There
are already signs that the Kremlin leader is preparing for just such a move.
Kaspruk points to the attacks on Lukashenka that have appeared in
Kremlin-controlled media and the dispatch already of “’little green men’ to
Belarus under the guise of protecting Russian military objects on its
territory.”

Such
units could quickly link up with pro-Moscow officials and people in Belarus and
then “take under their control state institutions and strategic objects in
Mensk and key industrial cities.” After which time, a new government would
declare that it wants to realize the ideas of the “union state” between Russia
and Belarus by being absorbed by the Russian Federation.

But on the other hand, such meetings
appear intended simultaneously to test the waters in their neighboring
countries about new Russian moves in this direction and to put additional
pressure on Belarus by signaling that some in Moscow are thinking about taking
steps to make a Russian version of “the union state” a reality (belaruspartisan.org/politic/323572/).