I have been writing for Forbes since 2005. Prior to that I covered the business beat for the New York Daily News. Because I've studied both finance and journalism, and because I like both numbers & analysis and sports, what's a more fun job than merging the two, writing about sports from the business side and from the stat geek/number crunching side? I have a BS in business from Boston College and a masters in business journalism from New York University.

Tonight's Playoff Game Could Be Worth Over $20 Million To Pirates

The date was October 17, 1979. Jimmy Carter was in the White House. The Iranian hostage crisis that would soon dog him was 18 days away, and disco ruled the airwaves.

Larry Bird and Magic Johnson were on opposite coasts, each playing in his third NBA game en route to changing the league. In 96 days, the Pittsburgh Steelers would beat the L.A. Rams to capture their fourth Super Bowl title in six years, cementing their legacy as one of the NFL’s all-time teams. And in 128 days, the U.S. Olympic hockey teamteam would shock the world with a victory over the Soviet Union in Lake Placid, N.Y.

But that night, attention fell on the Pittsburgh Pirates. When a fly ball from Baltimore Orioles’ pinch hitter Pat Kelly fell into the glove of Pittsburgh center fielder Oman Moreno, the Bucs celebrated their Game Seven World Series victory and the fifth championship in franchise history.

They haven’t won a postseason series since. So tonight’s fifth and deciding NLDS game in St. Louis is a pretty big deal for the 2013 Pirates. Not only for fun and civic pride, but for money. You would think that for a franchise that’s gone two decades without so much as a winning season, a sudden surge to 94 wins and a spot in the postseason dance is enough, that the fan base has been sufficiently jostled and uplifted to turn out in bigger numbers next season.

But recent history shows the bounce from a run to the playoffs is pretty minimal, even for a club that came out of nowhere to get there. To really pack them in next season, nothing works like postseason success.

The 2011 Cincinnati Reds, coming off their first postseason appearance in 15 years, raised attendance by just 7.3%, to 2.21 million. Same for the 2013 Oakland A’s, who jumped 7.7% following their 2012 playoff run, to 1.8 million fans. While Oakland and Cincinnati improved their records by 16 and 20 games, respectively, both bowed of the playoffs in the divisional round. This year’s Baltimore Orioles did better, drawing 2.36 million fans after making the playoffs last season for the first time since 1997, a 12% increase.

But clubs that come from nowhere to reach the World Series, not just make the playoffs, do far better. In 2005, the Chicago White Sox shot to 99 wins from 83 wins the year before, and then went on to sweep the Houston Astros in the World Series. Chicago had not been in the playoffs for five years, and hadn’t won in the postseason since Shoeless Joe Jackson & Co. beat the New York Giants in the 1917 World Series (the same cast would lose the Series to Cincinnati in an alleged gambling fix two years later). The Sox were rewarded with a 27% jump in attendance in 2006, to a shade under 3 million fans.

Then there are the Detroit Tigers, a postseason fixture now but who in 2006 got to the playoffs for the first time in 19 seasons. After advancing to the World Series, where they lost to the St. Louis Cardinals, the Tigers drew over 3 million in 2007, an 18% hike. Revenue rose 16%, or $24 million. Detroit didn’t fare quite as well after last season’s World Series appearance, which came as less of a surprise – attendance edged up to 3.08 million from 3.03 million.

Even the perennially box office –challenged Marlins got a 32% boost between 2003 and 2004 following a World Series victory, to over 1.7 million fans.

The one club to get a minimal bounce from a surprising World Series appearance: the 2009 Tamp Bay Rays (5.1%), but, we all know their issues.

Should the Pirates bump attendance at PNC Park by 20% next season, typical for a new World Series team, rather than by the 10% typical for a one-series-and done team, the difference in ticket revenue alone will be about $4 million. With overall cost of a game – adding concessions and parking – nearly double the ticket cost, according to Team Marketing Report’s Fan Cost Index, the club’s overall game revenue boost should be closer to $8 million. Add expected increases in sponsorship interest and merchandise sales, and the take goes up. Overall, matching the 16% increases of the Tigers and White Sox in the mid-2000s would be worth $28 million to Pittsburgh.

Of course, the Pirates could win tonight and then lose to the Dodgers in the NLCS. In that case, their financial jump next season probably falls somewhere in the middle. But tonight’s game in St. Louis is a big one – a chance to go for the grand prize instead of settling for the parting gift. In mid-market football country, the extra money comes in extra handy.

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