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TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED AUG 09 2000
WHILE ALBERTO IS STILL BEING AFFECTED BY SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR...THE
STORM LOOKS BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING WITH AN INCREASE IN
CENTRAL CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT...65
KT...AND 55 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA. BASED ON THIS THE
MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN 60 KT.
THE STORM SEEMS TO BE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER AND THE INITIAL MOTION
IS 315/15. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LARGE SCALE-MODELS INDICATE A
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTHWEST OF ALBERTO. THE MODELS INDICATE THE
TROUGH WILL INTENSIFY AND WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY
NORTH OF ALBERTO. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE STORM TO TURN NORTH WITH
TIME. ALL NHC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS IT.
THE OUTFLOW IS STILL RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE
INCREASE IN CENTRAL CONVECTION SUGGESTS THE SHEAR IS WEAKENING. AS
ALBERTO MOVES AWAY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...CONDITIONS SHOULD
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
REFLECTS THIS AND BRINGS ALBERTO BACK TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 24 HR
AND TO 85 KT BY 72 HR.
ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST TRACK HAS ALBERTO PASSING WELL EAST OF
BERMUDA...RESIDENTS OF THE ISLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THE STORM UNTIL IT HAS SAFELY PASSED.
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 09/1500Z 22.4N 50.5W 60 KTS
12HR VT 10/0000Z 23.9N 52.2W 60 KTS
24HR VT 10/1200Z 25.8N 54.4W 65 KTS
36HR VT 11/0000Z 27.6N 56.2W 70 KTS
48HR VT 11/1200Z 29.5N 58.0W 75 KTS
72HR VT 12/1200Z 34.0N 59.5W 85 KTS
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