News & Updates

10-11-2016

Significant surplus capacity exists across the global economy despite improved economic indicators in some countries. Global inflation remains weak even though commodity prices have come off their lows. Political uncertainty remains heightened and market volatility is elevated.

Weak global conditions and low interest rates relative to New Zealand are keeping upward pressure on the New Zealand dollar exchange rate. The exchange rate remains higher than is sustainable for balanced economic growth and, together with low global inflation, continues to generate negative inflation in the tradables sector. A decline in the exchange rate is needed.

Domestic growth is being supported by strong population growth, construction activity, tourism, and accommodative monetary policy. Recent dairy auctions have been positive, but uncertainty remains around future outcomes. High net immigration is supporting growth in labour supply and limiting wage pressure.

House price inflation remains excessive and is posing concerns for financial stability. Although house price inflation has moderated in Auckland, it is uncertain whether this will be sustained given the continuing imbalance between supply and demand.

Headline inflation continues to be held below the target range by ongoing negative tradables inflation. Annual CPI inflation was weak in the September quarter, in part due to lower fuel prices and cuts in ACC levies. Annual inflation is expected to rise from the December quarter, reflecting the policy stimulus to date, the strength of the domestic economy, and reduced drag from tradables inflation.

Monetary policy will continue to be accommodative. Our current projections and assumptions indicate that policy settings, including today’s easing, will see growth strong enough to have inflation settle near the middle of the target range. Numerous uncertainties remain, particularly in respect of the international outlook, and policy may need to adjust accordingly.