I found that argument kind of weird. If anything, I feel that if there’s a narrative of being the year is open to talk about race in America and Hollywood, wouldn’t voters who liked 12 years a Slave feel a need to push for Fruitvale Station and The Butler as well? I’m of the opinion that 12 Years a Slave won’t be the only race related film in the line-up, and that a lot of people voting for 12YaS will vote for some of those other race films as well (they can vote to up to ten in their ballots, afterall…). If anything, I think it HELPS Fruitvale and The Butler’s chance for nominations that we have 12 Years a Alave as frotnrunner.

I don’t know how to measure The Butler yet. It’s bound to have a weak presence in precursors. It’s only pre-Oscar hope is SAG. Could happen that it’s only noms are BP and Oprah, but we’ll see.

I’m actually thinking Fruitvale. It feels like a film that would be a quiet but constant presence throughout the season until getting the BP nom.

I don’t buy at all that people who would vote for 12 Years would automatically reject other films about race (which isn’t what Tom and Harris said, but soem posters have suggested). It’s a year of almost 10, not 5, so I can see a lot of them voting for race-related films because they feel important in order to fill their ballots and out of mentality they have to compensate big this year.

If race-related films are a theme this year, than Weinstein’s Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom can’t be dismissed.

Having watched it at TIFF, I’ll say it’s a very safe crowd-pleaser with two great performances from Idris Elba and Naomie Harris. But, like you said, it’s a very crowded year (A:OC is getting in easily), but I could see The Butler et al. missing out.

Tom, you have said a couple of times that no one on the planet considers Jean Dujardin the best dramatic performance of 2011. I happen to disagree, as I feel comfortable calling him or Michael Shannon in Take Shelter the best of that year. I know that it became popular to hate on Dujardin just because he has not been in any other English-language movies (as if that is a good reason), but it is important to note that Dujardin did win Best Actor at Cannes, which is in some ways a more prestigious award and perhaps even the most prestigious. I agree with the central premise of your argument though, that the Oscars do not award the objective best.