NFL Free Pick from Linebacker: Colts vs Chiefs

The divisional round will kick off from Arrowhead Stadium on Saturday, where MVP candidate Patrick Mahomes will look for his first playoff victory against Andrew Luck and the Colts. Indianapolis enters this matchup having won 10 of its last 11 games, including a 21-7 victory in the wild-card round against Houston. The Chiefs will look to exploit their home-field advantage as they look to defend the first overall seed in the AFC. The Linebacker projects a final score of 32.2 - 27.4 in favor of Kansas City, giving us a mid-level play on the OVER in this matchup. The Linebacker suggests a wager of $60 on OVER 57.5 for a $100 average bettor.

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Why will the total go Over?

Kansas City comes in as the top overall offense in the NFL, leading the league in yards per game (425.6) and points per game (35.3). Indianapolis isn’t too far behind, ranking seventh in yards per game (386.2) and fifth in scoring (27.1 ppg).

Indianapolis plays at the fastest pace in the league, snapping the ball every 26.3 seconds on offense. Kansas City ranks 14th in this department, running a play every 27.5 seconds, on average.

We expect both teams to attempt passes on the vast majority of their plays. KC ranks 10th in passing play percentage at 61.14, and Indianapolis is right on their heels at 61.04 percent. Their defenses also funnel opposing offenses to pass. KC saw opponents pass on 61.7 percent of their plays, which is seventh-most in the NFL. Indianapolis saw 59.5 percent, which ranks 14th.

Not only will they attempt to pass, but they should find plenty of success. The Chiefs rank first with 8.8 yards per pass attempt, while the Colts have given up a league-average 7.4 yards per pass attempt. Kansas City has surrendered 7.5 yards per attempt on defense, while the Colts have averaged 7.6 yards per attempt on offense since Week 4 (11th-most).

Both teams rank in the top five in red-zone touchdown rate. Kansas City is second, scoring a touchdown on 71.83 percent of its trips to the red zone, while Indianapolis is fifth at 69.12 percent. Scoring touchdowns in the red zone compared to settling for field goals is huge for going OVER on totals, so hopefully both teams can stay true to their regular-season conversion rates.

How to bet the spread in Colts @ Chiefs:

The Linebacker projects a final score of 32.2 - 27.4 in favor of the Chiefs. With Kansas City projected to win by 4.8 as a 5-point favorite, we have no suggestion on betting the spread in this game.

Need-to-know stats for Colts @ Chiefs:

21 rushes, 106.9 yards, 0.86 TDs1 catch, 8.9 yards - Marlon Mack helped dispose of the Texans in the wild-card round thanks to 148 rushing yards on 24 carries (6.2 ypc). We project he’ll find similar success against the Chiefs, who allow a 31st-ranked 5.0 yards per carry. Mack projects to pass the century mark on the ground, and has a great chance to reach the end zone, as he averaged 0.86 rushing touchdowns in our simulations.

27-42, 298.8 yards, 1.67 TDs - Andrew Luck had a quiet wild-card game with only 222 passing yards thanks to Mack’s dominance on the ground, but he should bounce back in a considerable way here. We project Luck to throw the ball north of 40 times, falling just shy of 300 yards. He has a good chance to record multiple TD passes for the fourth straight game, as he averaged 1.67 passing touchdowns per game in our simulations.

26-37, 307.3 yards, 1.99 TDs - Patrick Mahomes has a similar projection line to Luck, but should get there in a much more efficient manner. The potential MVP projects to surpass 300 yards on 37 pass attempts, and should throw multiple touchdown passes after recording an insane 50 in his second NFL season. Mahomes’ upside is enormous thanks to his efficiency, as he projects to complete 70.3 percent of his passes.

7 catches, 83.7 yards, 0.48 TDs - Travis Kelce has been Mahomes’ favorite target in terms of volume this season, and we don’t expect that to change now that it’s playoff time. The versatile tight end projects to lead the team with seven catches and 83.7 yards. His 0.48 projected TD receptions falls just shy of Tyreek Hill’s 0.50 mark for the team lead, but he has a solid chance to reach pay dirt nonetheless.

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