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I think it is a mix, hurting Romney but helping Newt much more. It was a boost just at the right time, when people were wondering if his rise in the polls was just another rocket style rise (ala Trump, Bachmann, Cain, Perry) and then a crash and burn back to earth.

His challenge in N.H. is to get a strong campaign organization going. While he has been a somewhat often visitor to the state over the last four years, he really at one point had no one with his campaign and seemed to be just avoiding the state or when here, just bumbling along to various stops. Not anymore. He has gotten a strong email effort going with scheduled sign waves and campaign info. People are starting to ask for lawn signs.

The big test is what the conservatives in Iowa decide on getting behind one candidate and how his three day swing through South Carolina goes. I believe he may very well has cemented that two man race …..at least in the early states.

His Achilles heel? The three wives (he needs to address that sooner than later) and the past political baggage. While the government shut down and balanced budget under his speakership may fuel the support from tea party activists, will it turn off an offsetting number of voters? How will he play with undeclared voters? And how many Democrats would cross to vote for Newt rather than Mitt?

Many still believe that Mitt makes the best Obama showdown nominee and I tend to agree with that assessment at this point. Only Newt’s ability to build a coalition, raise the money needed, and positive polls will prove otherwise. And of course, be able to survive the onslaught of negative stories and comments that will soon rain down on him. The ball is in his court how he balances this …..tough but not appearing too stern. He isn’t known for his charm after all.

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