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Monday, January 04, 2016

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

:Issued: 2016 Jan 04 0534 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www npc.noaa.gov/weekly.html#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 28 December - 03 January 2016
Solar activity ranged from very low to moderate levels. Very low activity was observed on 03 Jan, low level activity on 29 Dec - 01 Jan, and moderate level activity on 28 Dec and 02 Jan. Region 2473 (S22, L=331, class/area=Fkc/590 on 26 Dec), which exhibited a complex beta-gamma-delta configuration, produced all of the significant flare activity (2 M-class, 14 C-class).
On 28 Dec, Region 2473 produced an M1 flare at 28/1245 UTC. Associated with this event was a Type IV radio emission and a partial-halo CME observed off the southern portion of the disk, first visible in LASCO coronagraph imagery at 12/1212 UTC. Analysis of this CME determined that an Earth-directed component was present.
On 02 Jan, Region 2473 produced a long duration M2 flare at 02/0011 UTC. Associated with this event were Type II (1095 km/s) and IV radio emissions and an assymetric partial-halo CME observed off the southwest limb, first visible in LASCO coronagraph imagery at 01/2324 UTC. Analysis of this CME determined that a weak Earth-directed component was present and would arrive around midday on 03 Jan, though eventually proved to be a miss.
There was greater than 10 MeV proton event on 02 Januaury 2016. The event began at 02/0430 UTC shortly after a long duration M2 flare that accured at 02/0011 UTC. Proton flux reached a maximum flux value of 21 pfu (S1-Minor) at 02/0450 UTC and ended at 02/0750 UTC.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels throughout the period with the exception of 31 December when moderate flux levels were observed. A maximum flux of 6,782 pfu was observed at 03/1600 UTC.
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to moderate (G2) storm conditions. At 31/0003 a small shock was observed at the ACE spacecraft. Total field (Bt) increased from 5 nT to 13 nT with a corresponding solar wind speed increase from 350 km/s to 500 km/s. The shock was associated with the arrival of the 28 Dec CME observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 28/1212 UTC. Isolated G1-Minor to G2-Moderate storm conditions were observed midday through late on 31 Dec as well as early on 01 Jan. Mostly quiet conditions were observed on 28 - 30 Dec, 02-03 Jan.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 04 January - 30 January 2016
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flare activity from 15 Jan - 28 Jan due to the return of Region 2473 (S22, L=331). Very low solar
activity is expected for the remainder of the period.
No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be high from 04 - 13 Jan, 25 - 30 Jan due to recurrent coronal hole high speed streams (CH HSS).
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at active levels on 04, 07, and 22 Jan with G1-Minor storm conditions on 06 Jan due to recurrent CH HSS activity. Mostly quiet to unsettled levels are expected for the rest of the period.