My third marathon was the Cape Cod two years ago, hilly course. I PR'd in 3:54. I had been on 3:40 pace before hitting the wall at mile 18. I used Hal Higdon's Advanced I training. Due to injury I took about 20 days off, averaging 30 mpw for the 18 week plan.

I was following Pftiz's 55x24 last year in order to run the OBX marathon. I injured myself two weeks out and never ran that race.

I then ran only sporadically before beginning the Pfitz 55x18 for this marathon back in July.

I've basically followed the 55x18 plan to a tee, missing only a few runs during the 10th week. I've averaged 42 mpw.

My mid-week mileage has almost all been on a treadmill.

All my long runs have been outdoors on terrain similar to the course. In fact, I've run miles 15-18 of the course on each long run.

I've run two predictor races, both 10 miles. The first was completed in 1:16 (I ran the same race last year in cooler conditions in 1:13). The second, two weeks after the first on 10/20, I ran in 1:14.

I'd like to run a 3:30 (8:00 miles), but I think that may be too aggressive due to the difficulty of this course. It is important to me to run this race well, as I've hit the wall in all three of my marathons and I really don't want to do that again. So my plan right now is to start the race out running 8:30 miles, then pick it up in order to finish in 3:40 or better.

Too conservative? Too aggressive? Any predictions?

Aside, this race is a stepping stone as I'd like to BQ next fall, which is a 3:15 for me (which frankly seems impossibly fast right now).

Well you don't give your age that is important. With your 10 miler Mcmillian puts you at about 3:32. I like the Cameron formula it was close to my time last year. This course is challenging, and am thinking that maybe your goal should be to be a little more conservative. You would need to finish at 8:01 pace basically. I don't know what pace you were doing your long runs either that helps, and what was the longest weekly run you have done. The fact that you have hit the wall 3 times means you are going out way to fast, and your glycogen stores are running out. This course you may have to be aggressive like 7:50 to 7:55 pace, but will be tough to run even splits or negative splits. It's too late now, but what kind of speed work are you doing, treadmill running is not by forte so cannot give you advice on that. In conclusion go out at a pace that you can run for the entire 26 and not have to walk earler. Good luck but am thinking maybe 8:15- 8:20 pace will be best for you which would give you a little over 3:38 for the marathon. You can try to pick up more time in the second half. Also for next time are there some Half marathons you can run, they are a better predictor than 10 miles.

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From the course elevation chart, that looks like a tougher rather than easier course. It's also all uphill at the end, not necessarily the easiest thing for most people. Good luck, and I hope you run faster than my prediction!

A general observation of the reasons most people hit the wall at 18 (which seems to be a magic number) is:

They don't get in enough long runs in 20 to 22 mile range where they didn't hit a wall.

And, perhaps more important, they didn't get in enough runs where their body got use to being out there consistently for 3:30:00 minutes regardless of pace.

Unless I've gotten in at least 2 to 4 long runs comfortably in that range I've struggled with my marathon.

And what keeps most folks from doing that is:

Average miles per week too low (for them)Injuries of a nagging nature.and too much of a ratio of treadmill mileage (it just isn't the same)

I realize some have to run on a treadmill but don't expect mother nature to give you a bye on this issue just because you have to run on treadmill. Your body does not listen to excuses. Re: Marathon Prediction

All the rest is just interesting stuff that isn't what is controlling most of the runners in the largest area of a bell curve on marathons.

I train and run with 5 or 6 other guys who are older/younger, faster/slower and the pattern of their success and failure is almost identical. When we train together we tend to run hillier courses as that's easier in a group. When we train alone we do poorly. And if we do run the same marathon we seldom run together during the event because you have to do your thing on race day.

Crystal Ball-- 3:45-3:50<br /><br />Why?<br /><br />"I then ran only sporadically before beginning the Pfitz 55x18 for this marathon back in July."<br /><br />"I've averaged 42 mpw"<br /><br />You didn't have a base to fine tune with the Pfitz schedule. You were building mileage and intensity at the same time. I would expect your MP is about 15-20 secs faster then your then your long run pace. If you go out the first 8-10 miles at 8:15 you are sure to hit the wall. I think a 4-9 min PR is a reasonable goal. Don't blow it by going out to fast.<br /><br />Good Luck<br /><br /><br />--

That's true, but keep in mind that while I ran only sporadically the first half of 2007, I had done 23 weeks of the Pfitz 55x24 plan back in the latter-half of 2006, averaging 40 mpw for nearly 6 months. I don't think I lost too much fitness between then and when I began the Pfitz 55x18 this year.

I hear you, but a 3:45 marathon is much slower than I'd be happy with.

"I then ran only sporadically before beginning the Pfitz 55x18 for this marathon back in July."

"I've averaged 42 mpw"

This looks like a polite way of saying you don't train enough. You are probably going to keep hitting the wall until you train like a marathoner. 42 mpw isn't nearly enough to run up to your potential in the half marathon, let alone 26 miles.

Another example of why average marathon times for men had slowed to 4:20 by 2005 as compared to 3:32 in 1980. This a staggering figure.

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One big factor will be the hills. Depending on how well you run hills, the hills that start around mile 16 through to the end could really hurt you from carrying out your strategy of trying to pick it up at the end. It is possible to run well at the end if you are well-trained for it and go out easy like you said. On the other hand, maybe this is one of those courses with the initial downhill where you will start out fast and naturally fade a bit on the latter uphills. I am not intelligent enough or experienced enough to say anything smarter than that!

If your main goal is to run 3:30, then maybe go out close to even pace and see if you can hang on. The problem with marathons is that you never know until you get out there on race day. As long as you don't blow it by running way too fast early, and the course and conditions aren't lined up against you, either you are fit enough to meet your goal or you are not. In the words of Nike's ad campaign, just do it! Fill us in with a race report afterwards!

Well, I am going to say this with a little experience not only on the course but because I have run some distance runs with Jay several times. First off this course is extremely hard! The first half of the marathon is extremely fast with very few steep hills. The second half on the other hand is pretty darn tough.

That being said Jay is in great shape and he definitely has the endurance to post an impressive time. Just stay within your self for the first half but don’t let up so much that you feel like you are holding yourself back. The second half is not the place to make up time. Jay knows the Umstead trails as well as anyone. It is a crazy hilly trail that can reduce anyone to the dreaded death march.

My prediction is a 3:38, which is a very impressive time on this course. I will be running the half marathon only because I know I can’t beat Jay on the full course. My endurance is not good enough to make it through Umstead right now. Instead I will wait for the Charlotte Thunder Road Marathon to try to achieve the Elusive BQ(3:10 for me). Jay why don’t you come down to Charlotte for your BQ attempt. You will have no problem running the 3:15 there.

I looked at your long run list but one thing was missing...intensity. I don't know if those runs were done at extremely easy pace or close to marathon intensity. Everybody says they run their long runs at easy pace, but many people actually run their long runs close to their marathon goal pace. The predictor runs mean very little unless we know the intensity in which you train. Somebody who trains very intensely may not get anywhere near their 10-mile prediction time. When you do your long runs with 10+ miles at marathon pace, what is the slower segment pace and what pace are you doing the marathon pace work at? Do you ever wear a HRM?

Hey Jay are you carbo loading right? That could also be the problem. Remember to start loading in the morning. I weigh my self before eating breakfast to get a baseline. Then will reweigh myself SAT afternoon to make sure I gain 3-4 pounds which will be my water at mile 22-26. So make sure you are carboloading right? I also did an hour run tonight Wed to deplete my stores, and reloading tomorrow for NY. You can do 3:32-3:34 just trust your physical ability.

I used to run a lot in that area, and mtn. bike in Umstead. It is very hilly, and trails. The combination of those factors alone make it not possible to obtain the 3:32 time predicted by the 10 mile race (which would be an ideal marathon on a flat course where everything went right).

So, here is my formula:

1- Predicted time based on 10 mile race: 3:32

2- +6 min. for insufficient training volume.

3- +3 min. for never having figured out the marathon without hitting "the wall"-- I can tell you what it will take to get over that hump as I've been in that exact same boat as you but was able to figure out how to get out: (larger volume/base-- avg. 50-60 mpw for a few months, then Pfitz 70 mpw for 12 week program, add several miles of goal MP running into the mid-week med. long runs, run long runs on "empty", without carbo loading or caloric intake, just water, run easy on recovery days, be honest and do tempo effort the full 7 miles of the prescribed 12 mile workout that day, stay healthy, do approx. 1/2 of long runs finishing the last 3 miles at MP, 1/2 MP, 10k pace. Most long runs can be 17-20. Do one long run of about 22-23 one month prior to goal marathon). Carbo load appropriately (not too much to gain weight), and fuel pre race morning and during race appropriately.

So, leaving the weather out of it as I can't predict that (you'll have to factor that in race day), I'll guess:

3:43. That would be a very good performance on that course with your training and a PR.

In contradistinction to what people have said, I would say to bank just a little time on the downhill sections at the first. Just run very easy, never forced in the first 6-7 miles. If you end up running a couple miles in the 8:00-8:15 range on some downhills, don't sweat it, you'll give it back on the uphills and then some later.