El Niño less likely to occur this year

Occurrences of El Niño are now 75 percent likely to occur this year from a previous 80 percent, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said Monday.

Pagasa administrator Vic Malano said told lawmakers during the budget deliberations of the Department of Science and Technology that once December is over, there’s a slim chance of El Niño might be occurring.

Early this year, Pagasa warned that El Niño may occur this year but it will be delayed.

“A majority of climate models indicate that El Niño may develop this year. El Niño is characterized by unusually warm ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific (CEEP),” said in a statement in June.

“Pagasa has already noted significant increase in the [sea surface temperature] from 0.2 to 0.4 C from April 21 to April 28, 2014. Because of this development and as climate models predict that this condition may persist for the next nine months,” Pagasa said.