Vasundhara Raje

Gehlot has bet on a last-minute spend of Rs 5,000 crore through populist schemes to see him through. But his last-minute effort to replicate the UPA's popular Central scheme in his own state seem to have changed little. Fifty-one per cent people want a change of guard here.

BJP is doing better because Raje has picked up the right issues to attack Gehlot. In her speeches, she repeatedly highlights atrocities on women in the state, including frequent incidents of chain-snatching. Gujarat CM and BJP PM nominee Narendra Modi also made a mention of poor law and order situation in Rajasthan at his Udaipur rally on October 25.

Gehlot spent most of his five-year tenure targeting his predecessor. The first two years were devoted to dismantling projects Raje had initiated, including a mass rapid transport system for Jaipur and India's first direct cash transfer scheme for women. He then launched projects of his own, such as the Jaipur Metro, intending to finish them before the polls. All he managed till September was to get the Centre's nod for a state-funded refinery in Barmer.

In a state where caste plays a decisive role, former BJP leader and now Independent MLA Kirori Lal Meena can play spoiler. Having joined hands with PA Sangma's National People's Party, the Scheduled Tribes leader has got 17 per cent votes in the opinion poll, a mark-up on the 13.5 per cent ST votes in the state. Managing rebels ahead of November 16, the last date of withdrawal of nominations, will thus be key to the fortunes of both the incumbent and the challenger.