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Fixed-Income Insights

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Conditions Align for High Yield

Barring a significant U.S. economic slowdown, the U.S. high-yield market seems uniquely positioned to benefit from a favorable alignment of factors, including growing investment demand from yield-starved investors globally.

Three factors have combined to create a constructive environment for U.S. high-yield securities: slow and persistent U.S. economic growth; low global interest rates; and stabilizing oil prices. In addition, within this environment, the conditions for the high-yield market have fostered an improvement in daily liquidity, relatively limited refinancing risk, and, aside from difficulties in the energy and metals/mining sectors, historically low defaults. Such current economic and market conditions may increase the appeal of high yield for investors expecting continued slow economic growth and a “lower for longer” approach to global rates.

Favorable Economic ConditionsUnlike high-quality fixed-income securities that tend to perform best when an economic slowdown produces lower rates, high-yield securities often perform well during periods of economic growth. Economic growth generally reduces the risk of default, the biggest risk to performance in the high-yield sector. Thus, persistent 2% economic growth becomes important fundamental support for the asset class. Continued employment growth and rising wages should support U.S. economic growth in 2016 and 2017. In addition, the possibility of post-election fiscal stimulus, such as infrastructure spending, could further support U.S. economic growth beginning in 2017.

Support from Low Global RatesIn addition to support from U.S. economic fundamentals, U.S. high yield seems poised to also benefit from low global rates. Aggressive monetary policy by central banks in Europe and Japan to promote lending and economic growth has pushed rates negative on substantial amounts of government debt and close to zero on corporate debt. Geopolitical risks, including the economic consequences of “Brexit” and the ripple effects of an Italian banking crisis, suggest such accommodative policies will be expanded before they are curtailed. Global investors seem to be increasingly starved for the yield that is clearly available in U.S. fixed income, including U.S. high yield. Such investor demand should support prices of U.S. high yield, while few comparable investment alternatives exist, and as long as the U.S. economy shows few signs of economic downturn.

Help from Stable Oil PricesFinally, stabilizing oil prices address an obvious problem area within the U.S. high-yield sector. Defaults in U.S. high yield have risen this year, to 3.7% by mid-August. According to JP Morgan, 83% of these defaults are in the energy and metals/mining sectors of the high-yield market. If oil stabilizes at $45–50 per barrel, prospects for some energy and mining companies may improve. Defaults won’t go away, but momentum likely will shift and fortunes of surviving companies eventually can improve with increased demand for energy and some improvement in prices. As that transition unfolds, thorough analysis can reveal healthy companies whose securities have suffered the price pressure of investor fears.

Favorable Fundamentals, TechnicalsComplementing the favorable broad economic backdrop for U.S. high yield are the fundamental and technical characteristics of the high-yield market. From a fundamental standpoint, defaults suggest a reasonably healthy high-yield market outside the energy and metals/mining sectors. Excluding these sectors, defaults are a meager 0.56%, far lower than the long-term average of 3.5%.

In addition, the maturity composition of the high-yield market remains relatively favorable. Securities maturing within the next two years present little risk in terms of additional supply, and suggest that many companies are well-financed for the next several years. Securities within a two-year maturity window account for 8.6% of outstanding high-yield debt, as of mid-August. While this is not quite as low as it has been during the past several years, it compares favorably to a range of 8.7–9.6% at years-end 2007–10. Larger, more liquid issues seem to have even less refinancing concern. Of those issues amounting to more than $500 million, 30.5% have maturities out to 2023 or beyond, compared with 12.1% for issues of $500 million or less.

On a more technical level, liquidity in the U.S. high-yield market also has shown improvement. According to Credit Suisse, through mid-August, high-yield daily secondary trading volumes were 26% higher in 2016, compared with 2015. JP Morgan reports that year-to-date trading volumes have averaged $12.6 billion, compared with last year’s record levels of $10.7 billion.

Relatively Attractive ValuationAnd, finally, is the issue of pricing. Despite favorable economic and technical conditions, including low default rates outside the energy and metals/mining sectors, index yield spreads of 572 basis points (bps) in mid-August remain close to the long-term median of 576 bps. At a time when global government bonds are often trading at negative yields, and valuation levels of equities give some investors concern, high yield at a yield to worst of nearly 6.8% and a spread of 572 bps seems relatively attractive. Barring a significant economic slowdown, the U.S. high-yield market seems uniquely positioned to benefit from reasonable U.S. economic growth, investment demand from yield-starved investors globally, and active management designed to avoid distressed situations and capture opportunities.

A Note about Risk: The value of investments in fixed-income securities will change as interest rates fluctuate and in response to market movements. Generally, when interest rates rise, the prices of debt securities fall, and when interest rates fall, prices generally rise. Bonds may also be subject to other types of risk, such as call, credit, liquidity, interest-rate, and general market risks. High-yield securities, sometimes called junk bonds, carry increased risks of price volatility, illiquidity, and the possibility of default in the timely payment of interest and principal. Moreover, the specific collateral used to secure a loan may decline in value or become illiquid, which would adversely affect the loan’s value. Longer-term debt securities are usually more sensitive to interest-rate changes; the longer the maturity of a security, the greater the effect a change in interest rates is likely to have on its price. Lower-rated bonds may be subject to greater risk than higher-rated bonds. No investing strategy can overcome all market volatility or guarantee future results. The value of investments in equity securities will fluctuate in response to general economic conditions and to changes in the prospects of particular companies and/or sectors in the economy.

Statements concerning financial market trends are based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate. There is no guarantee that markets will perform in a similar manner under similar conditions in the future.

Source: All referenced data is according to JP Morgan unless otherwise noted.

Treasuries are debt securities issued by the U.S. government and secured by its full faith and credit. Income from Treasury securities is exempt from state and local taxes. Although U.S. government securities are guaranteed as to payments of interest and principal, their market prices are not guaranteed and will fluctuate in response to market movements.

A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.

Yield is the annual interest received from a bond and is typically expressed as a percentage of the bond’s market price.

Yield to worst is the lowest potential yield that can be received on a bond without the issuer actually defaulting.

Indexes are unmanaged, do not reflect the deduction of fees or expenses, and are not available for direct investment.

The opinions in the preceding commentary are as of the date of publication and subject to change based on subsequent developments and may not reflect the views of the firm as a whole. This material is not intended to be legal or tax advice and is not to be relied upon as a forecast, or research or investment advice regarding a particular investment or the markets in general, nor is it intended to predict or depict performance of any investment. Investors should not assume that investments in the securities and/or sectors described were or will be profitable. This document is prepared based on information Lord Abbett deems reliable; however, Lord Abbett does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information. Investors should consult with a financial advisor prior to making an investment decision.

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Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of the Lord Abbett Funds. This and other important information is contained in the fund's summary prospectus and/or prospectus. To obtain a prospectus or summary prospectus on any Lord Abbett mutual fund, you can click here or contact your investment professional or Lord Abbett Distributor LLC at 888-522-2388. Read the prospectus carefully before you invest or send money.

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