Wednesday, August 5, 2009

Investors Intelligence Survey Showing Possible Pullback

After looking at a few things this evening, just thought I would point out that the latest Investors Intelligence Survey numbers for this week show as big a spread of bulls vs. bears since June 10, which was only one day before a month-long pullback started on the S&P, Nasdaq, XLF, oil, etc. - pretty much everything. Bulls back then were at 47.7% versus 23.3% bears. This week, we have 47.2% bulls vs. 25.8% bears. Not quite as many bulls today, but very close to the spread we had, and regardless of past comparisons, it gives the impression of a very complacent market.

We'll see if this matters tomorrow and the rest of this week I guess, but the more I think about, the more I expect a pullback soon. We're at the top of this broadening formation on the S&P and Nasdaq and the Dow so it would make sense. Based on this, I am pretty sure I will be taking the rest of the week off - I get the feeling buying here is just too risky unless you're scalping intraday. I could be wrong and we could move another 10% from here, but it would be surprising. A pullback is healthy and beneficial and if it happens, that doesn't mean the bulls are done. But for now, I think I will be staying in cash. Best of luck Thursday.

Overall Market Timing Score

March 20, 2014 -2March 19, 2014 +1(Max Score +6, Min Score -6)

The Market Timing Score has six factors that I record on a daily basis. These include breadth indicators, moving average indicators, accumulation and distribution indicators, and overbought and oversold indicators.

The max score of the Market Timing Score is +6, but this is very rare. Typically a score of +4 or +5 tells you that the market is very bullish. A score of +3 or +2 tells you that the market is bullish, but there are a few reasons for concern. A score of +1 or 0 tells you that cash is the best place to be. The scores work the exact same way on the negative side for bearish markets.

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Chart Swing Trader is a website intended for the education of online stock traders. The website is an information service only. The information provided herein is not to be construed as recommendations to buy or sell stocks of any kind. They are simply the opinions of the author. It is possible that the editor of this blog may own, buy, or sell stocks presented. All investors should consult a qualified professional before trading any stock. The author is not an investment advisor. Any investments, trades, and/or speculations made in light of the ideas, opinions, and/or forecasts made by the author are committed at the reader's own risk, financial or otherwise.