Election Day May Trump the Markets

It’s been a good week for The Donald. He has stayed on script and hasn’t made a horribly insulting comment in days. His health report was generally unremarkable … while his opponent was either sidelined with pneumonia or hiding a far more serious illness. In either case, she is now well off her game and has clearly lost momentum.

While The New York Times Upshot column has Hillary Clinton at a 79% chance to win, the reality – to anyone watching the race closely – is that the odds are now 50-50. In fact, if Donald Trump can win Ohio and Florida, he stands a good chance of upsetting Hillary in the fall.

So, what seemed utterly improbable just a few weeks ago is now a serious possibility to any observer with a realistic view of the 2016 election. Therefore, the question needs to be asked: What would a Trump presidency do to the markets?

The man is so volatile and unpredictable that any forecast is certainly fraught with error. Still, for those of us in New York City – who have observed him for more than four decades – two things are imminently clear. One, Donald Trump loves to spend money. Two, Donald Trump always goes bankrupt.

What does that mean for investors and the U.S. economy? It means stimulus! Trump is the farthest thing from a fiscal conservative. And he no doubt salivates at the power of leverage that low interest rates provide the government, and he will surely increase spending on both defense and infrastructure the moment he enters office.

Gone will be the quiet frugality of President Barack Obama, who managed to reduce the Federal deficit by $1 trillion. Instead, borrowing will explode.

The Constitution gives us the right to vote but doesn’t give any hints about who to vote for.

Initially that should prove quite beneficial for the U.S. economy. The expansion of demand and the infrastructure spend could juice up the GDP and send stocks to record highs.

But it will also likely send U.S. rates higher as the Fed will have less reason to maintain its accommodative posture, which in turn could bring the whole U.S. economy to a screeching halt by midterm elections.

The markets, ironically enough, may already understand this dynamic in play. After a few days of choppiness, prompted in no small part by worries over the Trump bounce, they are right back to rallying again as the immediate message of the current campaign season seems to – let the good times roll. At least for now.

Happy trading,

Boris Schlossberg

Other Developments of the Day

New theory on Amelia Earhart. According to decades of conventional wisdom, pioneering aviatrix Amelia Earhart and her navigator died in 1937 when their plane crashed and sank into the Pacific Ocean during her attempt to become the first woman to pilot a plane around the world. But now there’s a new theory, reports The Washington Post. Noted aeronautic archaeologist Ric Gillespie has found evidence that Earhart landed on uninhabited Gardner Island, where she lived out her last days as a female Robinson Crusoe.

Unilever courts actress’ brand. Actress Jessica Alba, 35, is much more than a pretty face to Unilever PLC (ULVR). The corporation, widely known for making Dove soaps, has been courting the sex symbol to buy her startup Honest Co., reports MarketWatch. The acquisition would give Unilever a foothold in the growing market for “green” household products. Alba – who starred in the franchises Fantastic Four and Sin City – and Unilever have been dickering over a sale price somewhere between $1 billion and $1.7 billion. Founded in 2011, Honest reported 2014 revenues of $170 million from selling disposable diapers, household cleaners, and personal-care products. The startup has succeeded by marketing its products as an environmentally friendly alternative to harsh products sold by bigger companies.

Deutsche Bank balks at $14B payout: The U.S. Department of Justice has been knocking on the door of Deutsche Bank AG to collect a $14 billion penalty for the alleged mishandling of American mortgage-backed securities, reports Bloomberg. The news sent the bank’s stock and bond prices into a tailspin. Since 2008, Deutsche Bank has already paid fines and settlements totaling more than $9 billion. But in a statement on the latest charges, the company said: “Deutsche Bank has no intent to settle these potential civil claims anywhere near the number cited. The negotiations are only just beginning. The bank expects that they will lead to an outcome similar to those of peer banks which have settled at materially lower amounts.“

The Money and Markets Team

Boris Schlossberg is a weekly contributor to CNBC’s Squawk Box and a regular commentator for CNBC Asia and CNBC Europe. His daily currency research is quoted by Reuters, Dow Jones, Bloomberg and Agence France Presse newswires and appears in numerous business publications and newspapers worldwide.
Mr. Schlossberg has written articles on trading for SFO magazine, Active Trader and Technical Analysis of Stocks and Commodities. He is the author of Technical Analysis of the Currency Market and Millionaire Traders: How Everyday People Beat Wall Street at its Own Game, both of which are published by Wiley.
Boris’ extensive experience in trading and developing momentum-based techniques provide the foundation for BKForex’s strategies.

{77 comments }

DanielFriday, September 16, 2016 at 4:58 pm

Gone will be the quiet frugality of President Barack Obama, who managed to double the national debt in just 7 years… Coming out of the closet are we?

That is one more fairytale...Monday, September 19, 2016 at 6:36 pm

The national debt has doubled which any magazine will inform general public, he has paid a ransom—or call it what you will. Hillary was wrong sleeping on the job with Benghazi, but what was the White House doing while Americans were dying–watching on a monitor?? It appears Obama has turned both cheeks and kissing up to the Hillary team. The White House has more “gates” from Hillary than most offices. ( Travelgate, Chinagate, Pardongate, Filegate etc. Start to pay attention to people she has hired with criminal records and the payoff or the 11 million paid to Hillary for 51 speeches for personal income while on Gov’t dime. Obama needs to control his own office before he departs.

Rebecca DewhirstFriday, September 16, 2016 at 5:01 pm

Obama has increased our national debt 10 trillion to a now 19,500 trillion dollar debt….explain this please

AilaSaturday, September 17, 2016 at 6:21 pm

Have you considered what the national debt was when Obama took office? Bush single handedly bankrupt the country. Some people have very short memories.

None of you partisans want to consider the time frame of the point he made. Recently the deficit has been reduced by $1 trillion. The deficit did go up starting in 2008 because of all the spending to avert a financial disaster and pull us out of the super recession. Republicans have been charge of Congress for most that time and get some blame and credit too. They make the budget.

ChrisMonday, September 19, 2016 at 6:13 pm

thanks you Ails seem to me you & only few others wasn’t sleeping when bush ruin us & allowed Obama in office to put the blame on on him. I can’t wrap mine head around these people voting for someone that .refuses to show he’s taxes &show he’s over sea partners .& connection.when they all get played like they did with bush .then who they gonna blame next this time no one but their self’s .

CeliaTuesday, September 20, 2016 at 8:43 am

And others are just drunk on the Kool-Aid they love drinking. Bush didn’t single handedly do anything. Get your facts straight.

WheatieFriday, September 30, 2016 at 8:39 am

yes Bush started it, but Obama continued it

Curtis G. SmayMonday, September 19, 2016 at 5:58 pm

Hi
You need not look far to find out that Republicans are in charge of our spending, not Obama and economic recovery

DavidFriday, September 16, 2016 at 5:04 pm

In what universe or chicanery of financial 3 card monte did Obama reduce any debt ever? Under BO, we take in $200bn and spend $300bn per month- or $1.2bn per year in the hole. Really?

Curtis G. SmayMonday, September 19, 2016 at 5:59 pm

HI
David your math leaves a lot to be desired.I think you may have a fever.

BobFriday, September 16, 2016 at 5:06 pm

Check your Electoral College delegate count. If Trump were to win NC, OH, FL, and IA, he still loses by 39 votes. Assuming he gets all of these four swing states, which blue states can he flip to win?

frebonFriday, September 16, 2016 at 5:09 pm

you’ve got it all wrong. Obama has not reduced the deficit, he’s doubled it. Deduct the amount the Fed is giving back to the treasury with its Ponzi scheme and its even worse. The Fed government wastes almost 600 billion per year on contracts designed to defraud it. In private industry who ever heard of cost overruns and double and triple the time needed to complete a contract where the vendor is not responsible but the vendee? Also, lets look at Social Security. Madoff is in jail for life for doing exactly the same thing these politicians did. Bernie created a fund, received 5% on his money and paid out 15% by using new funds to pay old ones off. The politicians have borrowed $3 trillion from the Social Security fund and guess how they are paying it back. With tax dollars which are other people’s money. To make matters worse Bill Clinton signed the law taxing the benefits. I give you a dollar you hold it 40 years and give it back to me and its taxable? I know they said it was the actuarial interest that is being taxed but this interest is being paid by us to ourselves with our tax dollars. This is what you want to continue. Bernie’s in jail and the politicians want to be re-elected. I know you’re young and very well versed in economics but much like the Fed you have to use common sense not data. I’m old enough so it won’t effect me that much but my children and grandchildren and your children will not have the same quality of life if this continues.

VirgMonday, September 19, 2016 at 8:42 am

Excellent points. And, as we know, these messes only touch the tip of the iceberg

CarolFriday, September 16, 2016 at 5:17 pm

“quiet frugality” of Obama???? You can’t be serious! Really! You’re not serious, are you?

mikeFriday, September 16, 2016 at 5:17 pm

Boris

Not sure what planet you have been on but Obama more than doubled US deficit by every account ever made in the last 5 years . The Donald’s bankruptcies pale in comparison to what 7 &1/2 years of Obama have done but you are right about one thing Trump like to spend so” let the good times roll “.

Ed McLeodSaturday, September 17, 2016 at 4:04 pm

I’m no fan of Obummer, but let’s be clear about what we’re talking about.

National Debt : what the U.S. Government owes someone(s) else.
Budget Deficit : the difference between what the gov’t takes in each year and how much it spends each year.

The debt has, in fact, doubled since Jan. 2009.

If the gov’t takes in 4 trillion last year but spent 6 trillion, then that year’s deficit was 2T, which is added to the national debt. If the gov’t takes in 4T this year but spends only 5T, then this years deficit has been reduced 1T from last year’s, but still another 1T is added to the national debt.

Moreover, it’s difficult to attribute the reduction to the current president since he can only spend what was authorized by the House of Representatives (in theory, anyway).

E.G. when the House presented Bill Clinton with the first balanced budget in years, he took credit for it, not the newly elected Republicans who brought new fiscal discipline to the federal govt.

SteveMonday, September 19, 2016 at 10:05 pm

Clinton helped shape the budget by meeting with the Appropriations Committee leaders and told them what they could pass without him vetoing it. It’s called compromising.

Curtis G. SmayMonday, September 19, 2016 at 6:01 pm

HI
NOT SO

JosephFriday, September 16, 2016 at 5:19 pm

Donald Trump should be elected President of the US. Why would Americans knowingly vote Hilary Clinton who is very sick who won’t even walk. She is a top woman but she can’t be the Commander-in- Chief under the current circumstances. Why dare vote Hilary Clinton? She would be a top President if she is healthy fit and strong but now big big no. Joseph Ipiti

DenMonday, September 19, 2016 at 5:12 pm

Don’t get toooooo excited gang…….Trump will never get the electoral votes he needs…..All you wise men know that for a fact….Just get used to saying “MADAME PRESIDENT” !!

Have M. VockrothTuesday, September 20, 2016 at 9:35 am

God forbid……

Curtis G. SmayMonday, September 19, 2016 at 6:04 pm

HI
You need to check your sources. Hillary is not sick and never was.Now if you want to talk sick , go republican.

Have M. VockrothTuesday, September 20, 2016 at 9:57 am

God forbid that. Bs

Clyde Maughan, age 90Friday, September 16, 2016 at 5:21 pm

Let’s see. Mr. Obama has run up more debt that all the presidents of the United States before him, and this is called: “the quiet frugality of President Barack Obama”.

booksSaturday, September 17, 2016 at 9:08 pm

Could the bail outs of the banks be part of this? They benefitted. The wars have cost trillions. The tax cuts instituted by W. took more trillions out of the economy. The money of the rich and rich corporations hiding in the Cayman Islands are worth trillions.
Hmmmm

VirgMonday, September 19, 2016 at 8:50 am

Of course the banks benefitted– they are connected at the hip to the government. But to say the tax cuts by W. took trillions out of the economy? Since when does giving Our money back to Us to spend as We see fit do anything but help the economy. It works every time, all the way back to when JFK did it big time.

Clyde Maughan, age 90Friday, September 16, 2016 at 5:22 pm

President Obama is wonderfully frugal. Wonderfully frugal.

Clyde Maughan, age 90Friday, September 16, 2016 at 5:24 pm

Can you define for your readers “quiet frugality”?

MikeFriday, September 16, 2016 at 5:37 pm

And I can’t wait to see all the Republicans in Congress who have thrown hissy fits over increasing the debt limit during Obama’s tenure even to the point of causing the US to have its credit rating lowered roll over and rubber stamp increases up to 35 trillion dollars. They increased the debt limit 17 times under Bush and didn’t let out a peep.

CAPTAIN O-3Sunday, September 18, 2016 at 10:20 pm

well let me see hillary clinton is a habitual liar like her husband she is corrupt to the core just like her husband bill clinton bill clinton lied to congress so did hillary clinton she lied to the american people so did bill clinton hillary clinton lied to the FBI , NOW LETS TALK ABOUT THE OBAMAS MICHELLE OBAMA HAS SPENT MORE ON CLOTHES AT THE TAXPAYERS EXPENSE THAN ALL THE EX- PRESIDENTS WIFES COMBINED BARACK HAS SPENT MORE ON TAXPAYER PAID VACATIONS THAN ALL THE EX-PRESIDENTS COMBINED AND BARACK WITH HIS FRUGAL WAY OF SPENDING TAXPAYERS DOLLARS HAS DOUBLED THE NATIONAL DEBT IN ROUGHLY 7.5 YRS AND THIS FRUGALITY THAT BORIS SCHLOSSBERG TALKS OF WILL CONTINUE THRU 2017 SINCE frugal BARACK OBAMA WILL MAKE OUT THE BUDGET FOR 2017 im sure according to BORIS SCHLOSSBERG obama willl be quietly saving us all money C M O N

MikeMonday, September 19, 2016 at 10:47 am

Emotional invectives lacking substance do not alter the fact that Republicans are budget arsonists when in power and volunteer fireman when not. Their only consistent budgetary policy is blatant hypocrisy. The National debt has increased 1,950% since the advent of Reaganomics. Where was your concern when Bush took a balanced budget and destroyed it?

booksFriday, September 16, 2016 at 5:39 pm

People don’t radically change in a week or two. Trump has gotten advice to tone down his insulting statements, but that doesn’t mean HE has changed. While Hillary has had pneumonia, something that anyone can get and recover from, Trump is on statins and aspirin which indicates heart trouble – much more potentially serious than a bout of pneumonia. Trump has badmouthed judges, HIspanics, Blacks, women, Liberals, NATO,
religious ministers, Muslims, other Republicans, and other world leaders. Who do you think will work with him in the future? Trump is an egotist, and acts like a seventh grade bully. He changes his mind daily, and says whatever he needs to say depending on what audience he’s standing in front of.

CAPTAIN O-3Sunday, September 18, 2016 at 10:23 pm

AND HILLARY BAD MOUTH CLINTON CALLS PEOPLE NAMES EVERY DAY BUT I SEE YOU FORGOT TO MENTION THAT

Obama reduced federal deficit by 1 trillion?
That’s a news! When did that happen?

James dutteraFriday, September 16, 2016 at 5:48 pm

How can you let the comment go that Obsma reduced the Federal deficit by 1 Trillion dollars. The deficit has gone up from 10 Trillion to 20 Trillion in his 8 years.
That’s way more than the increase over unpatriotic George Bush’s eight years if my math is correct.

Yo can’t let that false statement go un responded to

John FaschingFriday, September 16, 2016 at 5:50 pm

I watch the election news carefully. What I can’t understand is why Hillary Clinton’s
clothing always seems to have been make from used carpeting. Why?

Michael SkowronskiFriday, September 16, 2016 at 6:02 pm

Are you serious??? 50-50. Criminal Clinton can’t even fill a high school gym, while Trump fills football stadiums. Really? I know there are some very unaware people who will vote for Hillary, but too many people know she is a criminal, a liar, a thief, at great risk of launching WWIII and Donald…well he is not a saint, and there is no way he can do the things he says he can do, but the fact that he is upsetting the “Powers that Be” is a BIG WIN for us all, anything else is gravy…we ALL need to do our part and WAKE UP. Nearly EVERYTHING we think we know about politics, the country, the circumstances, the dramas of life, history, physics, ARE A LIE. WAKE UP. Learn for yourself. GO DEEPER. The truth is out there, but it is hard to find and will only be found by the fearless who tenaciously go after finding it.

joeFriday, September 16, 2016 at 6:15 pm

The last two republican businessmen presidents plunged us into depressions, Hoover and Bush. Trump’s sociopathy, naked greed and ego would be the most corrupt ever, and just volatile enough to bring about the end of the world– but not before he and Putin loot billions.

Dave WestromFriday, September 16, 2016 at 6:28 pm

‘quiet frugality of President Barack Obama, who managed to reduce the Federal deficit by $1 trillion’- are you kidding me? I’m sure you know the difference between debt and deficit so I can only interpret this as an attempt to deceive your audience. The truth is that the government increased spending in 2009 by an amount equal to what the entire federal government spent in 1980. That increase became the baseline for big government spending over the ensuing eight years. The accumulated debt over the last eight years is equal to that of all the past Presidents combined. Even with a reduction in the annual deficit of $1T, we are still accumulating more debt. And if you going to give credit for reining in spending, it is the 2013 Sequester that deserves the credit- not the President. Lastly, you also fail to mention that the annual deficit is forecasted to skyrocket once again over the next few years. At least make an attempt at providing some context next time you decide to express your political opinions.

NelsFriday, September 16, 2016 at 7:12 pm

“Gone will be the quiet frugality of President Barack Obama …”

This isn’t April 1, so you must be the Bizarro World Schlossberg, trapped in our universe by a freak transporter accident. I wish you well while you’re here, and hope you can make it back to your universe safely. In the mean time, you should know that this world is nothing like the Bizarro World you left behind. In particular, our 0bama is nothing like the one in your universe.

E DempseyFriday, September 16, 2016 at 7:20 pm

What planet are you living on? Contrary to your claim that Obama’s “quiet frugality” reduced the deficit by $ 1 trillion, the reality is that the federal debt has increased by $ 9 trillion under Obama’s “quiet frugality”, which is a larger increase in debt than the total debt accrued under all of the previous presidents combined. How can someone in the financial industry be so willfully blind to reality?
And despite your obviously ardent desire and expectation that The Donald will fail, I expect that his election to the presidency will bring about a duplicate of the Reagan era rapid economic expansion.

HowardFriday, September 16, 2016 at 7:24 pm

Boris

The assumptions in your summaries are tainted with a very one sided perspective. I hope you don’t lose money in the coming months.

zachary baileyFriday, September 16, 2016 at 7:27 pm

Boris, dramatic events are perfect for allowing the cream to rise to the top. Not everyone has the current “system” figured out like you apparently do and would prefer to start over. Donald trump is most American’s equivalent to dropping an a-bomb on Washington dc. Thomas Jefferson would be proud. Go Trump!!!!!

JerryFriday, September 16, 2016 at 7:41 pm

Considering the consistent negative attacks made against Trump by the Democrats it is obvious that they don’t want to lose their control of the nation and the benefits they arrange for themselves. The citizens are the raw material, used to fuel their good life. Non friendly foreign nations and illegal immigrants take precedent over the American citizen.We will just have to see how things go if Trump winds the election.

FrankFriday, September 16, 2016 at 8:02 pm

Are you kidding me?!

“Gone will be the quiet frugality of President Barack Obama, who managed to reduce the Federal deficit by $1 trillion. Instead, borrowing will explode.” Really?!

The Federal debt doubled, $20T so far, during his administration and the deficit numbers are fudge. With frugality like that who needs profligacy? As seen on a bumper sticker: “Please, no one tell Obama what comes after a trillion!”

tasmicaFriday, September 16, 2016 at 8:39 pm

A Trump victory would probably be connected with the Republicans holding majorities in both the Senate and House for the first two years. If that assumption is correct, some form of trickle down tax code revisions, major changes to the Estate Tax, dismantling of the Affordable Care Care, and suspension of or roll back of various business and EPA related regulations would most likely occur. What would happen about “The Wall”, the various existing trade agreements and tariffs, and relations with our most significant trade partners we can only imagine, but blustering and threatening geo-political diatribes can be expected. Nuanced decision-making doesn’t seem to be his specialty even though he has proclaimed himself to be “brilliant.”

With the Tea Party wing of the GOP holding significant influence in Congress, it’s hard to see how the needed substantial infrastructure spending can occur without dismantling / defunding specific government programs and/or agencies that they don’t want in order to shift revenue.

In short, Trump would be a living, breathing Black Swan where significant market volatility may become the norm. Inflation would seem highly likely as would the probable need for the FED to raise key interest rates which would have a detrimental impact on the national debt even as he decreases tax payments by top 2 percent and corporations.

None of the above probables touches the subject of how this incredibly uninformed person (who has no interest in becoming informed) would deal with highly complex international issues. If we can find out what business associates/arrangements and liabilities Trump, Inc. has or wants to have after he leaves office, maybe we can predict what decisions will be made. His refusal to release his recent tax returns is a clear indication he wishes to keep his business dealings and relationships from the voters.

Fun times would certainly be in store if he manages to win.

Ray F.Friday, September 16, 2016 at 8:39 pm

Giving bo credit for “quiet frugality” is a joke. The man has done more to destroy our financial situation than the prior ten Presidents before him. He has transferred millions to Iran who, as acknowledged by the FBI will use that money to fund terrorists and kill Americans. This comment has angered me and should anger all Americans.

HeidiFriday, September 16, 2016 at 9:00 pm

Surely you jest.$7,060,259,674,497.51–Federal Debt Up $7 Trillion Under Obama
… The total federal debt of the U.S. government has now increased more than … Debt Up $7 Trillion Under Obama. ..

espyFriday, September 16, 2016 at 9:14 pm

“Gone will be the quiet frugality of President Barack Obama, who managed to reduce the Federal deficit by $1 trillion. Instead, borrowing will explode.”

Now that’s a fun way to twist the facts. $10B added to the debt in 8 years and still the highest deficits in the nation’s history, every year, since the 2006 mid-terms. A much less fun way to present actual facts.

The elephant in the room, notwithstanding anything else that may or may not happen will either be raising rates which will dramatically increase the $300B required every year to service the debt or embracing the previously uncharted territory of negative interest rates.

We are well past the point of being able to grow out of the overall economic pickle we find ourselves in. I have grave fears for the future.

JDFriday, September 16, 2016 at 9:48 pm

“Gone will be the quiet frugality of President Barack Obama, who managed to reduce the Federal deficit by $1 trillion.” Am I in a parallel universe? Who in their right mind would use the word frugality to describe anything about Obama? The national debt, with near zero interest rates, has doubled under Obama. You don’t have an exploding national debt without deficits!!! The only cuts were those mandated by sequester. And how did that come about? Obama suggested it because he thought defense cuts would be so distasteful to conservatives that they would never pass it. There’s nothing frugal about Obama. Give me a break!!

WillFriday, September 16, 2016 at 10:38 pm

“…quiet frugality of President Barac Obama, who managed to reduce the federal deficit…” Figures don’t lie but liers can figure, is all I can say to that comment.

haliopapaFriday, September 16, 2016 at 10:52 pm

Your comments are describing the Democratic Party, that Doubled the deficit in 8 years that took all other presidents before him. I do not want more of the same and we will have a president that will make the changes necessary for our country to prosper.

haliopapaFriday, September 16, 2016 at 10:55 pm

I am in total disagreement with your assessment of Donald Trump. He will be as good as Ronald Reagan, if not better!

J. ShannonFriday, September 16, 2016 at 10:56 pm

Wow. Condemnations of the British middle and blue collar classes in a prior writing for voting for Brexit and now a one-sided condemnation of Donald Trump with a definite slant toward Barack and Hillary. I do not mind these writings because they contain a kernel of truth about “The Donald.” However, to call Obama frugal with spending and not say a negative word about what Hillary would have in store for us is a bit one-sided. I, too , am a New Yorker and have witnessed shenanigans on the part of both Hillary and Barack. I believe it would benefit all our members if you were a bit more balanced in your assessment

Scott HartzlerSaturday, September 17, 2016 at 12:27 am

50/50 seems optimistic. Even if Trump wins Ohio and Florida, he still needs an additional 49 electoral votes from tossup states. He would need 2 outta 3 from VA, PA, and NC, and a few of the smaller states. Admittedly, this is possible, but…

RonSaturday, September 17, 2016 at 12:51 am

You have to be kidding… “Quiet frugality of President Obama”? He just took more money from us all, gutted the military, and convinced millions that they should give up even TRYING to get a job, so his unemployment rate would APPEAR to improve. But that’s OK, he’ll provide LIFETIME unemployment benefits, so why the hell SHOULD you want to work?
Oppose him, and you’re a racist…

PaulSaturday, September 17, 2016 at 1:34 am

A Trump presidency will be a trainwreck for the markets. Within 6 months Donald will drag the U.S into a face off with some country and the nervousness of a potential war, or at least military action will un-nerve the markets and we’ll see a plummet of 8-10%. His bombastic style will upset many congressmen and senators who, much like with Obama, they will refuse to give him what he wants, and a 2 year war with Congress will result in more nervousness. Yes, he will repeal ACA. Yes, he will placate millions with his immigration policy. But in the end, his style and especially his mouth will move the needle south to the point where recession could become a possibility. Mark it down.

dave sstewartSaturday, September 17, 2016 at 4:34 am

From a happy reader, why don’t you explain to your readers the difference between deficit and debt. Obama has increased the debt by more than any previous President. How does reducing the deficit help in reducing our debt? Or are you just carrying water for Clinton/Obama?

ScotSaturday, September 17, 2016 at 5:18 am

Your attempt to mislead is not helpful, nor his your assumption that Trump would spend like a drunken Progressive. Reducing the deficit by $1 trillion from the fraudulent TARP bailout high in 2009, only to bottom out in the $500 billion range, which is way above trend and totally unsustainable, is certainly nothing to be proud of, nor is doubling the total debt, which is what Obama will do by the time he leaves office.

Since Trump has promised to clean house, not only eliminating wasteful spending, but axing redundant departments, I think his deficits would certainly be less than Hillary’s. He has managed projects under budget and under timelines, something the govt bureaucrats can never do. So, why are you opposed to giving him a chance?

Dave DSaturday, September 17, 2016 at 6:35 am

“Gone will be the quiet frugality of President Barack Obama, who managed to reduce the Federal deficit by $1 trillion”
I am curious how this deficit reduction number was determined.

John KenneySaturday, September 17, 2016 at 8:14 am

Barack Obama added 14 trillion to the federal deficit in his 8 years…he did not cut it by 1
trillion. Wow, you made a 15 trillion dollar mistake!

Elaine LeeSaturday, September 17, 2016 at 5:40 pm

No kidding, Boris must be a Democrat!

MikeSaturday, September 17, 2016 at 10:46 am

Obama increased the DEBT from $9 Trillion to $19 Trillion. More than all previous presidents combined. Need to get your heads out of the liberal quicksand.

Jason GeorgeSaturday, September 17, 2016 at 2:46 pm

Humorous article- probably wasn’t meant to be, but really…

NickSaturday, September 17, 2016 at 4:41 pm

So what if Obama reduced the deficit by 1 trillion. The total debt increased from $9 trillion to $19 trillion under his reign of terror. So if your increase the annual deficit to $1.4 trillion then let it fall to $.4 trillion that’s cutting the deficit by $1 trillion. Fine.

He should have increased the deficit to $2.4 trillion and cut it $2 trillion to look even better.

Elaine LeeSaturday, September 17, 2016 at 5:44 pm

If you’re not going to write an unbiased article, please take a pass. For one, Trump doesn’t always go bankrupt, he’s an extremely successful businessman, something Obama has never done. and two, Obama has added at least 14 trillion to the federal deficit. You owe your readers and apology for your obvious ignorance.

MikeSaturday, September 17, 2016 at 7:38 pm

The Federal Budget runs from October 1 to September 30 of the following year. Thus all Presidents inherit a budget not of their making. The 8 Bush years yielded an increase of $6,114,367,775,129 in the National Debt. To this point Obama has racked up $7,592,569,828,456 in debt and will likely add another $600 billion or so. In terms of spending yearly Federal Government spending went from $2.417 trillion in 2001 to $3.518 trillion in 2009 under Bush. This is an increase of 45.5%. Likewise under Obama spending went from $3.407 trillion in 2010 to an estimated $3.607 trillion in 2017. This is an increase of 6.0%.

The above data are given in constant 2009 dollars to remove inflation and are taken from Office of Management and Budget. Make of it what you will.

RPSunday, September 18, 2016 at 2:48 pm

Ether the real Boris just stood up!! or you just wanted to gauge how many people still read your stuff. I think you should read The Art Of The Deal to better understand Mr Trump.
Yes he’s a master at leverage, news flash the whole world operates on the many forms of leverage one way or another. Supply and demand for example. If I were a betting man and I am, after all I play the stock market. A better choice for any high position is a person that understands the human mind and emotions. He could not have attained what he has if he didn’t possess charisma and diplomacy. He has mastered separating his emotions from the task at hand. I’ll take that any day in the real world over the theoretical world. And don’t forget he and his family still has to live in this world, from what I see he would never jeopardize that.
I only know one thing for sure. The lobbyist / Big money run this country and until that’s at-least minimized nothing will change in the huge bubble of Washington DC.

DSunday, September 18, 2016 at 6:00 pm

I see I’m late to the party. So I don’t need to add much.

The reduction in the deficit is due to the sequestration of 2012, which was forced on Obama by a Republican House. The deficit bottomed in fiscal 2015 and started to rise again this year: tax revenue is declining, Obamacare spending is up, and the Boomers are retiring.

MikeMonday, September 19, 2016 at 1:59 pm

Deficit reduction also was a result of Obama allowing taxes to increase on the upper 0.7% of incomes. He allowed the Bush tax cuts to remain for the bottom 99.3%. Democrats decried the spending cuts saying they would cause an economic downturn. Likewise Republicans stated increasing taxes would do the same. In reality the economy actually did better after both were enacted. Thus one must conclude that both are wrong and we are being led by self serving idiots.

As a side note many are dismayed that 50% of American workers pay little or no income taxes. That figure would be reduced to about 18% if all of the Bush tax cuts were rescinded.

DdMonday, September 19, 2016 at 7:22 am

What on earth are you talking about. Obama has reduced the deficit by 1 trillion?!? Sounds like politics to me. If your spouse told you that he/she reduced annual spending, but the value of your mortgage doubled and you still have the same house, would you call that frugality?

BrianMonday, September 19, 2016 at 10:30 pm

Congratulations – I actually gave up on reading ALL the comments on Onama’s
frugality – well done!!

HawkTuesday, September 20, 2016 at 8:57 am

Everyone seems to think that all this is a Dem against Repub issue when in reality their both in the same camp. Abolish the Federal Reserve and Central Banks and let the reset begin. Wars are not solving any problems over anything but ruining lives. US has no business over seas other than to fill the pockets of govt. contractors whom are becoming rich over our young people’s lives that are being sacrificed. The banks are creating these wars only to hold the almighty dollar on top. Bring back the gold standard, close the military bases down around the world and let the military protect our borders if need be. People around the world hate the US and rightfully so for all the damage our war machine has caused. Look at Vietnam,50,000 + died and for what so Mac Donald’s, Burger King, and the corporate world can now operate and make more money. US being the biggest drug dealer in the world protecting the poppys of the Middle East and trying to control the oil as well, all at the expense of our children. Our infrastructure is decayed, the govt. is telling us what’s good for us and what’s not, they’re creating divisiveness between the peoples and forcing people on govt. dependence only so they can control the people’s. What a freakin joke this world and country has become. So it doesn’t freakin’ matter who’s elected its all controlled and beyond anyone’s comprehension.

swm carsonMonday, September 26, 2016 at 12:32 am

Last comment the summation. tptb repub/demo minuet orchestrated and produced by (un)holywood to further enslave a formerly free people. Ike wanted to warn the USA about the “military industrial CONGRESSIONAL complex” however submitted to demands that he remove our criminal career banksterowned ‘representatives’ from his address. “the money power wields the sword’. Hang ’em high boys. buzzards are hungry