Tuesday, March 1, 2016

...given all of what we know about the
faulty techniques of forensic "science" that we have been tricked into
believing, why should we simply believe these stories about mind-reading
tools and other fantastical devices?

Last week we took a look at five mind-boggling new
technologies that the government is (or is going to) convert into tools
for spying on you. But as I noted at the end of that article, we
shouldn't be so quick to accept reports about these new technologies at
face value. Initial reports of new breakthroughs are often
sensationalized, and part of the intelligence agencies' core mission is
to confuse the public by spreading false information about their
capabilities. The truth is that these technologies are often overblown,
completely useless, or just outright made up. Sometimes new ideas or
technologies are promoted to the general public for devious purposes,
and sometimes the "authorities" are just dumb enough to believe what
some conman is telling them.

Today let's examine four forensic technologies that are too amazing to be believed.

#1 - The FBI Can't Tell the Difference Between Human and Dog Hair

You've doubtless seen it in a thousand crime procedurals on tv: a
bloody murder scene where the murderer has been careful to remove all
traces of evidence. There are no fingerprints or bootprints to be found,
no identifying marks or objects. And then one eagle-eyed investigator
finds it. The teeny-tiny piece of evidence that cracks the case wide
open: a single hair.

From there, as we all know, it's just a
question of letting the investigators do their work to match up that
hair to a sample of hair taken from the key suspect and hey presto!
You've found the guilty perp.

Except for one pesky little
problem: it's completely made up. Not the tv show, the science. The
entire field of "microscopic hair comparison" is a made up pseudoscience
invented for the express purpose of helping the FBI convict whoever the
prosecutors want to convict. If this sounds like a jaw-dropping
accusation, it is. And it is now formally acknowledged by the FBI and
published on the front page of The Washington Post:

"The
Justice Department and FBI have formally acknowledged that nearly every
examiner in an elite FBI forensic unit gave flawed testimony in almost
all trials in which they offered evidence against criminal defendants
over more than a two-decade period before 2000."

As The Post
goes on to explain, the government launched the largest-ever
post-conviction review of forensic evidence last year after it was
discovered that 26 of the FBI's 28 microscopic hair comparison "experts"
overstated the results of their analysis on the witness stand.
Specifically, in 268 trials in which hair evidence was used against
defendents a stunning 257 of them (i.e. 95%) were found to have relied
on flawed testimony. And wouldn't you know it? In almost each and every
case the flawed testimony just happened to benefit the prosecution.

The poster child for this injustice is Donald Gates. Convicted of the
rape and murder of 21-year-old Georgetown University student Catherine
Schilling in 1982, it wasn't until 2009 that DNA evidence finally
exonerated him of the crime. A key part of that conviction hinged on the
testimony of FBI forensic analyst Michael Malone, who said that Gates’
hairs were “microscopically indistinguishable” from hairs found on the
victim’s body. How sure was he of this figure? There were only 2 chances
out of 10,000 that the hair belonged to another person.

Sounds pretty authoritative, doesn't it? 2 out of 10,000. So where did
the number come from? It was completely made up. As Peter Neufeld,
co-founder of the Innocence Project that helped to bring the FBI's made
up pseudoscience to light, explains: “When a person says that the
probability is one-in-10,000, that’s simply a made-up number. There’s no
data to support it.”

And there is not just one Donald Gates
out there. Of the 257 cases where faulty hair analysis was used to help
convict the defendent, 32 of them were sentenced to death. 14 of them
have already been killed.

But the absolute worst example of
this fraud comes in the case of Santae Tribble. He was a 17 year old
picked up as a suspect in the robbery and murder of a taxi driver in
Washington, D.C. in 1978. He was convicted of the murder in 1980
(despite having an alibi testified to by half a dozen witnesses that he
was out of state at the time) largely on the basis of a single strand of
hair taken from the murderer's stocking mask. The prosecution stressed
that the hair "matched [Tribble's] in all microscopic characteristics"
and threw out an even more outrageous made up statistic: there was one
chance in ten million that the hair wasn't his!

Tribble was
exonerated in 2012 after his lawyers finally won access to mitochondrial
DNA analysis of the hairs. It turns out the hair wasn't Tribble's. It
wasn't even human. It was canine.

Santae Tribble served over two decades in prison because the FBI passed off a dog hair as his.

Urine, on the other hand, is
the liquid created from filtered waste and excess water in your blood by
your kidneys that is excreted through your urethra.

You'd think that the top crime lab in the US of A would be able to tell the two apart. But you'd think wrong.

This is just one of the startling revelations of Dr. Frederic
Whitehurst, a former Supervisory Special Agent in the FBI Crime Lab
turned turned whistleblower who revealed just how bad things really were
in the crime lab.

On The Corbett Report in 2012 Dr.
Whitehurst talked about the shoddy work in the FBI crime lab, the fact
that agents routinely altered reports and handled evidence improperly to
help support the prosecution in high profile cases, like the OKC
bombing where, in his estimation, one agent in the lab gave false
testimony about ammonium nitrate samples found in the rubble that helped
in the case against Terry Nichols.

One particularly
egregious example involved the FBI conclusion that urea nitrate found at
the scene of the 1993 World Trade Center bombing could be traced back
to urea nitrate explosives. As Whitehurst explained:

"When
urea nitrate explosive is detonated the urea nitrate breaks into urea
and nitrate. [...] And we found high concentrations of urea at the World
Trade Center, and we found urea nitrate explosive at a bomb making
factory which we could point back to the folks that were the suspects.

"I wrote a report that we found urea nitrate ions, and that was
consistent with the presence of a urea nitrate based explosive. However,
it was also consistent with the urea which was used on the streets of
New York at the time as a bio-friendly ice melter, nitrate ions, which
are in the acid rain belt. Urea is in sewage, it's coming out of your
fingers right now, it's in urine. Sewage mains burst at the crime scene
as a result of the explosion at the WTC.

"FBI management
ordered my boss to tell me to take those alternative explanations for
the data out of my report. And I remember the day very well. It was
raining, it was dreary out on E Street behind the FBI building. I was
looking out the window and I told my boss, 'Well they can just fire me.
I'm not going to lie in this report and then lie in a court of law.'

"[...]In order to convince our managers that these things were true,
Steve Burmeister (my partner at that time) and I made some samples and
told a fellow they came from the crime scene. One of them was actually
urine. I collected my own urine in a beaker and dried it down and
extracted it with acetone, and turned that sample over to this fellow.
And then Steve Burmeister mixed urea fertilizer and ammonium nitrate and
gave it to the guy. And his response in detecting these things was 'OK,
we got them now. It was a urea nitrate bomb.'

"And then we
went to our manager and said, 'Here's the problem. And this is what's
going to catch you when we get to court. This guy is ready to declare a
urea nitrate bomb and he doesn't know what he's doing.'"

If
only this were a case of incompetence. Sadly, it's much worse than that:
it is high level pressure to promote and elevate those who are willing
(or able) to come up with the "right" answer in order to secure the
conviction, no matter how wrong their methods, and drum out any (like
Dr. Whitehurst) who do not play along.

As Whitehurst summed
up: "How far would the government go to [...] get the jurors to believe
something? How far would they go? At the crime laboratory it was a
regular practice for people to testify outside of their area of
expertise. One agent altered my reports for five years [...] most of
which were altered to support the prosecutor."

How are you feeling about America's top law enforcement now?

#3 - Lie Detectors Are A Lie

In the big book of Hollywood tropes, the lie detector test deserves
its own special page. It's hard to think of a crime drama without some
reference to it. "He passed the lie detector test? I guess he is
innocent after all." Or, "He failed the lie detector? Book him, Danno!"

Yeah, turns out that's a lie, too. And one that's been known for
decades (at least). As far back as 1998 the Supreme Court noted " There
is simply no consensus that polygraph evidence is reliable: The
scientific community and the state and federal courts are extremely
polarized on the matter." Decades later the consensus is still that
there is no consensus, but there is less polarization on the matter. In
short: as a criminal tool, it is unreliable at best and dangerous at
worst.

The fundamental lie about lie detectors is that they
detect lies. They do not. They merely measure physiological responses
during questioning. But no one, not even polygraph activists, maintain
that there is any telltale physiological "symptom" that the nervous
system gives out when someone is lying. Instead, the theory is that the
right examiner asking the right question in the right way and correctly
interpreting the results in comparison to baseline examples can infer an
attempt at deception.

As the Office of Technology Assessment noted in their exhaustive 1983 overview of the validity of the polygraph:

"The instrument cannot itself detect deception. Therefore, polygraph
tests require the examiner to develop questions to be asked in each
case, compare the physiological response (as measured by the instrument)
to the different questions, and infer deception or truthfulness based
on these comparisons. [...] In sum, OTA [the Office of Technical
Assessment] concluded that there is at present only limited scientific
evidence for establishing the validity of polygraph testing. Even where
the evidence seems to indicate that polygraph testing detects deceptive
subjects better than chance (when using the control question technique
in specific-incident criminal investigations), significant error rates
are possible, and examiner and examinee differences and the use of
countermeasures may further affect validity."

And as USAToday noted in a 2002 review of the technology:

"A
1997 survey of 421 psychologists estimated the test's average validity
at about 61%, a little better than chance. And University of Utah
psychologists published a 1994 report that suggested biting your tongue,
pressing your toes to the floor and counting backwards by 7's during
control questions would screw up the accuracy of polygraphs."

So if you ever find yourself being questioned by the thought police of
the coming 1984 police state about whether you have ever questioned the
official government story of 9/11, and they happen to be using a lie
detector test on you, just remember: 42, 35, 28, 21...

#4 - Fingerprints Are Also Subjective And Unreliable

Alright, so the real life CSI guys can't rely on hair analysis. And
the FBI crime lab is useless. And the detectives with their lie detector
tests are essentially quacks. But what about fingerprints? They've been
a rock solid part of criminal investigation since the originator of
eugenics, Francis Galton, first started examining them in the 19th
century (looking for the telltale signs of the master race, no doubt).
Surely there's good hard science backing them up, right?

Nope! It's all basically guesswork and interpretation, and the fallible
humans doing that guesswork (even if angels of the noblest sort) are
going to get it wrong. A lot.

One startlingly simple
demonstration of this fact was designed by Itiel Dror, a cognitive
neuroscientist who recognized that fingerprint analysis is largely
subjective and thus prone to copious amounts of cognitive bias. His
idea: get analysts to re-analyze fingerprints that they'd already looked
at and see if they come up with different analyses. Five fingerprint
"experts" were recruited for the test. They were given (without their
knowledge) sets of fingerprints that they had examined in the past, but
this time with different case histories that included information
designed to bias them in the opposite direction of their original
analysis. The result: the "experts" contradicted their original analyses
in most of the cases.

The real world consequences of these
biases and errors are all too real for the innocent people who have been
imprisoned on the basis of false fingerprint matches.

Take
the case of Marion Ross, a 51-year-old Scottish bank clerk who was
brutally murdered at her home in Kilmarnock in 1997. During the
investigation, a thumbprint of police constable Shirley McKie was found
on the bathroom doorframe of Ross' home. When she denied ever having
been in the house, McKie was arrested and charged with perjury. Being a
good constable, McKie implicitly trusted that the thumbprint
identification was correct, but that there had been some other
explanation for how her thumbprint ended up there.

It wasn't
until two years later when a pair of renowned US fingerprint "experts"
determined the print was not hers after all that she overturned the
perjury charge. She pursued a civil case and was awarded £750,000 in
damages.

But then the person who was convicted of the murder,
David Asbury, was also convicted on the basis of a single fingerprint
at the crime scene. As you might have guessed by now, that conviction
was overturned five years later when it was found the fingerprint
identification had been faulty.

Maybe it's time to update the old detective cliche of the magnifying glass and the fingerprint?

Conclusion

These are not the only phoney techniques that the CSI-ers employ to
pin the blame on whoever the prosecutor wants. There are many such
subjective areas of interpretation-based "forensics." (Bite marks,
anyone?)

But the point is a bigger one. Last week we were
looking at all those scary spying technologies that the government may
or may not be using on us already to see what we're doing, to hear what
we're saying, even to know what we're thinking... But given all of what
we know about the faulty techniques of forensic "science" that we have
been tricked into believing, why should we simply believe these stories
about mind-reading tools and other fantastical devices? What if these,
too, are just a big con designed to help prosecutors convince gullible
juries that this or that person is "almost certainly" guilty of whatever
thought crime (or pre crime) the government invents in the future.

Given how much is at stake, it's imperative that we don't just take
these corrupt prosecutors and lying crime lab technicians at face value.
Just ask Santae Tribble.