Friday, 17 October 2014

#GE2015 Forecast update: 17 October 2014

It’s been a relatively volatile time in the polls of late, and that
continues this week. The Tories dropped 2 points in our average a fortnight ago, then gained 3 last week
and now lose 3, putting them back down to 31%. Labour, who dropped 2
points last week, have not gained from the Tories’ fall and remain on
34%. Instead, the beneficiaries are UKIP (up 2 points to 17%) and the
Liberal Democrats (up 1 to 9%).
The Conservative-to-UKIP swing might well reflect the mood change
following the Clacton and Heywood and Middleton by-elections last week.
We’ll need to wait to see how long it lasts, though, especially given
the recent volatility.
The upshot in our forecast is a partial reversal of last week’s big
shift towards the Conservatives. Labour are back in front again as the
slight favourites to win the most seats, with a 53% chance to the
Tories’ 47%.
The Tories’ fall and Labour’s failure to recover in the polls leads
to their lowest combined share yet: 65% in both the current average and
our central forecast. With the two parties so close and their combined
share so low, the chances of a Hung Parliament are up to their highest
by some margin: 57%, surpassing the previous high of 53% two weeks ago.
In our central forecast, the Tories get the most votes (with 34% to
Labour’s 31.3%) but not the most seats (with 291 to Labour’s 298). That
would leave Labour 28 seats short of a majority, while the Lib Dems
would have 31 MPs in their best seats forecast since April.

UK GENERAL ELECTION 2015 SEATS WON

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