I thought both guys started out well but late in the first Djokovic inexplicably just fell apart, giving Federer a break to take the first then falling behind early again in the second. He got a break back but could never really sustain any momentum.

The slow court actually seemed to bother Novak who had trouble generating much pace – just 12 winners on the day. It was almost reverse of what many of us thought would happen: Federer was forcing Djokovic into errors and he was one dominating the return of serve games breaking Djokovic no fewer than four times!

Good day, bad day for Novak? Doesn’t matter, Credit to Roger who still a marvel at age 34. He was the better guy today.

And as we know, Federer seems to be the one guy Djokovic just cannot solve on a consistent basis (head-to-head now 22-21 in Federer’s favor). Is it the variety, the history, the spin or pace or maybe now it’s the beard or crowd support, whatever it is, Novak just cannot get a firm grip on the Swiss (or even Wawrinka for that matter!).

Novak’s now lost six matches this year with 77 wins, but half those losses have been to Roger.

That said, I think they’ll meet again come Sunday.

Earlier, in what I would call the bigger surprise, Kei Nishikori resurrected himself to beat Tomas Berdych 7-5, 3-5, 6-3. I know Berdych is behind in their head-to-head, but indoors against a guy like Kei is a match Berdych has to have.

For all his game, power and prowess, Berdych is going to go down as one of the biggest underachievers this sport has ever seen. And he’ll disappoint again, I’m sure.

So after two rounds in the Stan Smith group, Federer has booked a spot in the semifinals, but the second spot is still up for grabs.

If Nishikori loses and Djokovic beats Berdych – the betting line – Djokovic obviously gets in. However, in most other cases – Federer and Berdych win, or Nishikori and Djokovic win – then we go to the calculators. Though I believe if Djokovic wins he’s in, regardless of what Kei does. Djokovic, though, can no longer win the group.

If you are Federer, you have to be pleased with both matches relatively comfortably with the “easy” match ahead in Nishikori.

For Djokovic, nothing to worry about. Just beat Tomas and things will fall into place. A loss puts a blemish on what has been an incredible 2015.

The Nastase group resumes tomorrow with two good matches. In the undercard it’s winless David Ferrer against Stan Wawrinka. We know Ferrer will come to play, but what about Stan after that tepid opener?

Ferrer leads 7-6. Stan, though, has won the last three including at this event two years ago. So I think Stan goes the distance and gets it done.

Nadal leads 15-6 winning 7 of their last 9 though I put Murray as the slight favorite here based on recent form and 2015 results. I do think the court and environment actually help Nadal, but Murray has been playing better, more confident tennis.

It’s an awfully tough pick, so I’m going to lean a three setter with… with…. Murray. But this match to me is a toss up. Much like Ferrer-Wawrinka.

Tennis Channel has full coverage at 9am ET with Murray-Nadal and then at 3pm ET with Ferrer-Wawrinka.

1. Stan lost yesterday and is highly unlikely to win the first place in his group
2. Who would Novak like to avoid most from the other group in semis – Rafa, Murray or Stan? Clearly it would be Stan!
3. If Novak wins his group he may play Stan in semis, assuming Stan wins second place, which is possible
4. If Novak ends up second in his group, he most likely avoids tricky semifinal with Stan – because the chance of Stan winning his group is very small

Conclusion: Is it possible that this morning before the Federer match, the Djoker/Becker/Vajda team looked at the above scenarios and concluded that the easier road to the championship for Novak is by being second in his group???

I am not saying Novak tanked the match, but perhaps after seeing how well Fed served and, especially after not getting into the first set tiebreak, he simply had all the facts in mind and decided that trying to claw back from set down, exhausting himself and (maybe) winning the match would actually be stupid and counterproductive to his chances for the trophy. His absence of “fight” and emotions in the second set could confirm this theory…

I really think if he ends up second in his group (most likely scenario) he plays semi against the winner of the other group (Rafa or Andy most likely) – and those guys are far better opponents for him than Stan.
That said, there is still minuscule chance that Stan wins his group and we have Novak-Stan semi…

3) Regardless of score, if Berdych defeats Novak and Nishikori defeats Federer, then Nishikori wins the group and Federer qualifies 2nd.
4) If Berdych defeats Novak in 2 sets and Federer defeats Nishikori in 2 sets, then Federer wins the group and Berdych qualifies 2nd.
5) If Berdych defeats Novak in 2 sets and Federer defeats Nishikori in 3 sets, then Federer wins the group and Berdych qualifies 2nd.

As I said, the only player who can trouble Novak is the maestro named Roger when he plays at his best and that happened and no wonder we had this result which is not a surprise considering the prowess of Roger and what he is capable of. At 34, he is still beating a World No.1, at his prime in straight sets and that is a remarkable and extraordinary feat. Hats off to Roger, the PEERLESS CHAMPION !!

Yay!
Congrats to old Fed and his less obnoxious fans.
Quite a few of you felt this one in the water but I didn’t want to believe it.
It’s good that he has beaten Novak for many reasons, including tennis reasons.
Roger won the battle, but the war will be another day.
Personally, I hope neither of them take the title.
For tennis reasons again, you see.
Sorry
;(

Federer played well today hence proving Djokovic is beatable … How nice it would be to see Berdych beating Djokovic ?
Won’t happen … Clearly Federer will more than likely make the final …. Djokovic will be after revenge !
That’s my prediction

If Djoko wins 1 set and Fed beta Kei in any scneario he is in. I wonder which match will play first on Thursday, Fed x Kei or Djoko x Berdy? Love this scaneriis where everything is open fir last round.

For something similiar to happen in the other group there is 2 possibilities:
1 – Murray beat Nadal and Stan beat Ferrer, hence Murray qualifies and all other three still gave chances.
2 – Nadal beats Murray and Ferrer beats Stan, than Nadal qualifies and all other three has chances.

But if Murray beats Nadal and Ferrer beats Stan is out because Nadal and Ferrer will play for second win; or Nadal beats Murray and Stan beats Ferrer, Nadal is through and Ferrer is out wiht Murray x Wawa getting the second win.

Its all too complicated for me this format,this player needs this,this player needs that,players can win and not qualify,players can lose and qualify,all too confusing for me,football do it in WCs,dont care for it there either,sorry folks my two cents….

Federer is definitely in Novak’s head and it’s because of the emotional wounds Federer inflicted when Novak was still a kid. Federer was top dog when Novak was coming up, and its hard to “erase” that emotional memory. Novak often is deferent to Federer, almost involuntarily, and I think he has to sort through a lot of emotional baggage to be his efficient self against the guy. Same thing happened with Roddick: once Roddick was in Novak’s head, he was able to pull out a few wins, even though Novak was the better player.

Nadal has had two absolute plonk*rs to beat in the process
he flatters to deceive as his game has been that good at all.
He stands no chance against the other finalists
I hope I’m not becoming Ben Pronin here.
Ill have to kill myself if it is so.

This is the best I’ve seen Rafa play all year. He’s consistently getting the balls deep, hitting angles, and taking kill shots when they are there.
This was THE test match for Rafa. He lost to Novak this fall, but Novak is #1, Andy and Rog regularly lose to him as well. He lost to Rog, but Rog should win indoors.
I thought beforehand, this is the level-setting match. If Rafa wins here, all those who shouted that his career was over 6 months ago will be wrong. He’ll be a competitor again, and I look forward to seeing him in the clay swing.

I do NOT think it is a TANK JOB
He has done this cr*p what like 10 f**king times this year!
I bought the TShirt on all of them
So (even)fed up with this
He definitely could have had a good chance tonight

TV, Nadal can go 3-0 in his group, if he faces Novak in semis, almost assured now and lose inneasy straight sets, nothing had changed. Beating a no show Wawa, Murray DC head and Ferrer 33 is nothing extraordinary for him. Of course all thng a considered this year would be a huge confidence boost for him. But nothing less than this title or beating Novak again and his year will still be awful. He needs to win a big title again, Masters or above for me to trully trust he is finally back. Until that happens he is on “a path” to it, not there yet.

I believe Rafa will move back into the Big Four slot. What I’m not sure of is if he can regularly challenge Novak. Those matches are so physical, and I don’t believe Rafa is physically the same as he was a couple years ago, even if his game is back.

And yes, CDP, I think that thumping the world #2 at a major tournament is enough to say Rafa’s back. But maybe I’m wrong. Maybe Murray is just awful today.

I had heard Nadal had the confidence issue of going down the line but in this match its Andy who does not seem to have confidence to go down the line. Time and again he has gone to Nadal’s backhand when he could have finished the point by hitting down the line. Strange really, poor tactics.

if Ferrer beats Stan 2-0 Nadal not qualified yet. Because Ferrer could beat Nadal 2-0 and Murray beat Stan 2-0, that would be a three player tie with 2-1 wins and 4-2 sets going down to games won/loss.

If Ferrer and Stan match goes to three sets regardless of outcome Nadal qualifies first. If Stan beats Ferrer, Ferrer out and Nadal qualifies first with winner of Stan x Murray getting second spot.

So only way for Nadal to not be leader of his group tught bow is a Ferrer win in straights.

Nobody tanks a match when they aren’t even sure they’ll make the next round.

Daniel, sorry I missed your post when I wrote further. Looking at Rafa’s game, he was doing the things he hasn’t been doing: hitting deep, going for angles, going for kill shots, and protecting his second serve (against one of the games best returns). So this was important both for the result and the game Rafa exhibited.

I don’t know if Rafa will ever have the upper hand against Novak again. Nobody else on tour does. To me, Rafa making it “back” means he can hit with Andy and Roger, and at least challenge Novak.

As I said, I do think the tone of his Novak matches makes it particularly tough for Rafa.
But this 1-sided win over world #2, on his worst surface, is till his biggest in a long time, is it not?

Quite surprised to the result but it seems like rafa gave andy a beating, specially in the 2nd set. WOW, that’s really awesome. He is playing some of his best tennis this indoors season. He is defiantly back and has started to beat the top tier players in his supposedly worst surface.

I don’t think any top player would deliberately tank a match in such a big tournament, these guys fight tooth and nail to reach here for god sake.
And its andy’s fault if he was not up to the competition as once you are in the court you are there to compete.
Andy played some good tennis all year with 2 masters title (which is impressive) , but if he could not even manage to bring a decent fight against the fellow big 4, then I have no idea how he could be considered a contender in future grandslam tournaments. He has to find the solutions of the problems he must be facing as the time is really running out for him.

I am very happy for rafa, he is such a great warrior. Give his 100% in every match he plays.
Hope to see him against novak in the semis.

But I thought Andy wasn’t a Big 4 player?
It seems he is when he get beaten lol
Not criticising you about that Elina.
It’s a general observation.
Anyway, I personally DON’T think he is BIG 4 either to be honest.
He needs to seriously up the mental side of his game next year before he disappears up his own wazoo!
Poor boy
SO sensitive.

I won’t be surprised if Andy states his back is hurting and leaves WTF tomorrow morning….if so, he’ll either be practising on a clay court courtesy of Queen’s or found in the luggage compartment of the next plane to Belgium.

Meanwhile, congrats to Rafa fans: Gypsy, Okiegal and all of you ….Well done, Rafa, well done.

43% of FS in for Andy (never cuts it against a big 3)
And 15 winners to 29 UE in a two setter!

Even a 50% Nadal will find that one a doddle
And it was a 50% version we got.
I just remember when they played that simply AMAZING match in the semis here in ’10
That was when Nadal was the dominant player and both played incredibly well
I suppose this is colouring my view of this a bit.
But it is almost like 2 different players.

Didnt expect much at the start from Rafa,but im pleasantly surprised,and im still not delusional or think this is some sort of second coming or anything,but If he beats Ferrer he tops the group,and you cant do anymore than win,but god the comments on here are beyond irritating with too much tank talk,if Rafa is to win this thing BIG IF YES I KNOW,then i want him to do it the hard way,top the group and face a kyrptonite playing Nole who YEAH YEAH I KNOW will most likely take him to the cleaners, or the indoor GOAT in Federer ,BUT not avoid either one and go for a safer option, after all nothing worth while was ever easy,and i would feel pathetic and not much of a tennis fan or fan of Rafas if i thought that…

Thank goodness for Tennis Vagabond and Jatin,for understanding a little thing called perspective….

Gypsy, there were a lot of voices on this board for much of 2015 that Rafa was done forever, on an irreversible slide downhill.

What he’s done this fall, in his worst time of year, is complete a successful comeback. Maybe he never will win a Slam again, but from where he was and what people were saying, getting back to top 3 or 4, making finals, that is success to me.

TV thankyou LOL Ever the voice of reason,completely agree with you,im not expecting miracles,it would just be nice for a change for people to use some perspective once in a while,and you cant do anymore than win can you?….

Fair enough TV, I didn’t watch today’s marcch so can’t comment on his level, but for what I saw in Wawa match was basically the same all year. Wawa made 30+ unforced errors in not long two sets and Nadal was playing short and waiting Wawa to miss.

Djoko played bad testerday rushing a few shots but you could clearly see ge was trying to go for his shots and was just missfiriing a few. He was trying to be agressive.
Let’s see what unfolds for Nadal in semis or finals if he makes it that far but Ferrer match could not be a goog gauge, unless Ferrer beats Wawa convincingly, making him with potential chance to qualify.

As Federer explained, “You can be stubborn and successful or you can give it up a bit and change things around. I think you need to challenge yourself and try out new things, maybe where you practise, how you practise, who you practise with, the advice you receive sometimes, equipment, you name it, maybe a grip, maybe a string, maybe racquet technology. Everything keeps evolving and changing.”.

“To me, Novak is still the favorite of the tournament,” Federer explained. “He should make his way to the semis somehow. And he’ll be the favourite in that probably, too, with the year he’s had. He’s far from gone. The way I know Novak, he’s going to find a way to be tougher to beat from now on.”

Federer is still evolving at 34, prepared to change his game and acknowledging the brilliance of Novak in the process.

Nadal can’t get back to top 4 still. He is fair amount of points behind Wawa and I believe they defend same amount in AO, than Rafa gas a few points to defend on clay SA and than US. He can only pass Wawa and get back to #4 there or if he has a really good run in AO. He still has to separate himself from the top 5-8 bunch before getting back to #4. But with Wawa proving that he is just not consistent enough day in day out, even with ocasional great results in big tourneys is a possibility for Nadal first Quarter next year.

As for Murray, he should focus on beating Wawa to garantee second seed for AO and think DC. If Ferrer beats Wawa tonight maybe Wawa will be the group punching bag, we just never know with him.

But Murray needs #2 seed for AO to have a chance of agood deaw with Fed and Djoko out before finals. Nadal will be guarantee #5 or lower so ge may even avoid him as well of all three are in top half of the draw.
And Fed can potentially win here undefeated which will put him back at #2 for AO if Andy doesn’t deliver. Just 2 months and AO starts.

There is no chance Novak tanked. It was a legit win for Federer. Novak is now in a situation that if he loses to Berdych he is out and in Paris 2 weeks ago he barely beat Berdych in a tight 1-6, 7-6 match. Novak was on a 15 match winning streak at the masters; there’s no way that a guy who always wants to win in smaller events will tank a match at the year end finale.

@J-Kath…..Thanks! Rafa played good today. Glad he won. He finally beat one of the upper echelon!

On another note…..what is all this tanking talk about? I guess some fans really believe this happens. I just don’t see it…….The number one player in the world ranking?? He had an off day….but Fed had something to do with that, me thinks! These streaks are so hyped up by the media, it adds extra pressure to the “streaker”…..I do not think Novak, Stan or Andy tanked their matches.

Wow, oh, wow! Rafa’s dismantling of Andy makes him a force again.
Andy is in deep doo-doo with all his recent losses to Novak, Fed, now Rafa. He needs to re-evaluate his whole game and support team.
Roger taking down Novak is a reminder that Fed is still dangerous, still formidable and rewriting the book on how to be a successful senior statesman. He looks to have when all is said and done – a better final phase of his career than Connors or Agassi. Those of us who think he got a little “padding” to his stats due to the early 2000’s weak era have never disputed Roger is an all-time great – just that the level of competition any player faces has to be factored in on top of the simplistic “Slam Count”. His compliments on Djokovic as another undoubted all-time top player are well-received in this time. Go, senior statesman, go! (AND I say that as a Nole fan)
As for Djokovic, the “other side of him” was on display after his loss to Fed and the possibility he could be out if Berdych plays him just a tad better than he did in Paris. At his press conference, Djokovic spent time speaking, and speaking eloquently, on the need after the attacks to still treat the Syrian refugees with compassion. Their finding shelter with winter coming is a repeated concern of his, as a UNICEF Ambassador. Djokovic is a different sort of champion. He uses his fame and a good part of his fortune building bridges between cultures and different socioeconomic classes, assisting in educational opportunities for kids in many places. Perhaps in 30 years he will be like Yannick Noah – a notable person that long ago, also had success in the sport of tennis at a young age.

GG-Yep.That’s the only reason I’m watching it (-:
Joking.I like main actor Dominic West( from my favorite series of all time-Wire ) and is rather good series.I also just finished “Top of the lake “-That is very good also…
In the mean time Wawrinka is losing ..I feel sorry for Emily-it has to be frustrated sometimes being his fan.

Wawa serving for the match, Nadal first and who ever wins between Murray and Wawa second.

In the other groups things are more trick.

1 – Fed wins in straigths and whoever win from the other match is second. If Kei loses in straight he ends 1-2, 2-5 in sets. Djoko is 1-1, 2-2 and can either go 4-2, 4-3 winning or if losing 2-4 or 3-4. Either way all this prospects is better than Kei, so Kei losing in straight he is out.
Berdy is 0-2 with 1-4 sets. If he wins in straight, he goes 3-4 and Djoko 2-4, Kei 2-4 so Berdych is second.
If Fed wins Djoko only needs a set and he is second.

2- If Kei loses to Fed, but loses 3, he can hope for Berdych to win in 3 and three way tie going down to games

3 – If Kei beats Fed and Djoko loses, Kei is first and Fed second

4 – If Kei beats Fed but Djoko beats Berdych three way tie, if Kei beats Fed in straight and Djoko beats Berdych in 3, Fed first and direct confront puts Djoko above Kei. So Kei has to either win or win a set and hope for Djoko to lose. Djoko winning and he is second Kei out.

So, only scenario we get a Fedal semis is of Fed loses to Kei and Berdyc beats Djoko.

The Spanish bloke held his own today!! So happy he won. My two favs having a go at each other. I’ll agree with GG, had Andy won, I wouldn’t have been too disappointed…..but I am happy that Rafa is playing much better, as of late. I can only hope he continues to do so.

@courbon, thanks for your sympathy, but looks like it was premature, today at least. I was really disappointed by Stan’s performance on Monday, especially since he played so well against Rafa 10 days before. I’ve gotten used to the extreme ups and downs that come w/ supporting Stan, but am glad he turned things around today

While I agree partly with you assessment of Roger/Nole rivalry I disagree about Roddick one. He was never in Nole’s head, his wins came in 2009 when Nole was playing his worst tennis, Roddick just retired in time when Nole started to trash him again, Nole won his very first match with Roddick.

Giles, I don’t think for one moment Novak meant it in that way at all.

Read the full info in a more reputable media (plenty out there) and keep an open mind.

“You have those days when you are not feeling your best, not even close to the best. Credit to Roger for mixing up the pace, giving me always a different ball. He used the slice and spin very wisely. He served very efficiently.

“I made a lot of, lot of unforced errors. I just handed him the win, especially in the second set.

“He tactically played well. Undoubtedly, he was the better player on the court. But I think I also allowed him to play and penetrate through the ball and dictate the tempo from the baseline.”

Roger has said comments like this, as it is, Novak was able to credit Roger, and accepted that he didn’t play his best. It happens and I am sure it will happen again.

Fed said ‘But I feel, honestly, with the way he’s played this season, you still have to put him away.

“It’s not an easy thing to do. It’s not like he played terrible. I know he can play better. Why did he play that way? I’d like to give myself credit for that, quite honestly, yeah.”

It’s not trash talk at all. Novak didn’t play his best as a world number 1, reason he lost. Not rocket science Giles.

Federer played superbly against Novak. It is a very close rivalry between these two.

Federer is a definition of a sore loser. Look at 2011 US Open semi, and his press conference later. A lot of people don’t see it, as they built up this fake image of a classy gentleman during his WINNING years. You can’t be a sore loser while you’re winning. Great player – yes, classy – nope, he’s a fake. For example, Wawrinka is gracious in both victory and defeat, while his compatriot is only classy and gracious when he’s wining. Douche. People are blind.