Look at the internals of the poll. The sample is too small. Go with Ras and Gallop, IMO. Both have Barry up, but by smaller margins.

This is what I don't fully understand about Gallup. They have likely voters, registered voters, traditional likely voters or something like that. Which one is the most accurate as to how the election could go?

This is what I don't fully understand about Gallup. They have likely voters, registered voters, traditional likely voters or something like that. Which one is the most accurate as to how the election could go?

Traditional is if demographics follow previous election demographics regardless of whether the person being polled says they are going to vote or not. They're just going based on previous elections on who actually did vote.

Expanded is if the person on the other end says hey, I'm voting or have already voted. They include that person in that LV model.

Traditional is if demographics follow previous election demographics regardless of whether the person being polled says they are going to vote or not. They're just going based on previous elections on who actually did vote.

Expanded is if the person on the other end says hey, I'm voting or have already voted. They include that person in that LV model.

RV is just asking if they're registered and then polling them.

I think expanded will prove to be most accurate.

Yeah that's what I though too that expanded is the most accurate. I read of fivethirtyeight that the problem with these polls is that some people have already voted and they still poll those people. Thanks for the info.