Scottish Election 2011: the all nighter

In the morning, we’ll start a separate running story for Argyll and Bute and Dumbarton – but tonight we’ll be keeping an eye on the overall picture.

Update 00.30: The big surprise so early is the widespread assumption that the SNP are going to do very well. Can this be trusted?

The news from Aberdeen is not dismissing the possibility of an SNP sweep there (declarations 3-4am). Andy Kerr, Labour’s Shadow Finance Secretary, waiting for the declaration at East Kilbride any moment, is looking pretty flat.

The morning papers seem all to be predicting a strong SNP performance.

Update 00.56: Rutherglen Declaration: Labour Hold (James Kelly) – but SNP 16% up. Labour up 2%. LibDem down – yet strong local candidate. Indicative result of what is to come? LibDem vote seems to be crashing and going to the SNP. Turnout 48%.

Michael Russell, Argyll and Bute SNP candidate is in the BBC Studio with Sally Magnusson and looking pretty relaxed.

Update 01.05: Tory campaign seems to be holding up so the UK coalition crash is LibDem focused. Kenny MacAskill, facing a possible lose with boundary changes, looks as if it’s going his way.

Update 00.12: East Kilbride looks like an Andy Kerr loss for Labour. SNP’s Linda Fabiani looking ecstatic. This is 12th ranked target for SNP. If they take it, it will be a significant indication of what the SNPs fortunes will be. IF this happens, it may mean a direct Labour-SNP swing, going beyond the dispersing LibDem vote.

This is beginning to look like tree-felling. What happens if Labour lose a swathe of their main team? This is beginning to feel as if it’s going to be a tabula rasa night. Labour’s biggest veterans are going. Both Andy Kerr and Tom McCabe are capable and experienced politicians. Imagine – the SNP going up 18% – in LANARKSHIRE. This is not just the collapse of the LibDem vote. There is a direct swing from Labour to SNP. Tom McCabe has admitted that this loss was unforeseen, that the crashing LibDem vote should be coming to Labour but is going to the SNP.

Who is going to lead Labour now?

Amazingly, Tom McCabe has that the Labour party now has to realise that Scottish elections need to focus on Holyrood and not on Westminster. Sorry. Where have these guys been? We said yesterday that Scottish politics now refer to Scotland and that Westminster instinctively feels irrelevant. It’s been obvious.

What is interesting now is that if the SNP carry on with this momentum, it will see them with some new MSPs. Their problem in their first term has been the sheer burden of work spread across a relatively shallow talent pool. The arrival of new MSPs, who will take time to settle and mature, will nevertheless increase the available menu for growing ministers.

Many voters are talking about being turned off by negative campaigning. This should not be news. If anyone actually watched and listened to folk, it’s obvious how immediate a turn-off negativity is.

Update 02.12: John Swinney says that these are ‘ground-shaking- results and that tbis is going to be a historic night.

So far we’re seeing the SNP take seats in Labour’s traditional heartlands.

Update 02.37: Very interesting comments coming from Studio pundits – talking about Labour MPs possibly being brought back to Holyrood, talking about the mistake of Labour sending two MSPs to Westminster. We’re hearing Holyrood become the game to be in. This is a very real shift in perspective happening as we’re listening.

Huge fall for LibDems. Very narrow majority of 151 for Labour Leader. Will Iain Gray continue to lead the Labour group because there’ll be no one else left? In his acceptance speech he virtually conceded.

Alex Salmond’s Election Agent – Stewart Pratt, is now the most succesful election agent in Scottish political history – with 8 successful campaigns for Salmond.

Salmond said Scotland has outgrown negative campaigning – no more scaremongering, No more insults to the intelligence of Scottish people. Noted that the results look like SNP has had trust renewed in a way no other government in Scotland has achieved.

Salmond then identified changes to come:

control of the Crown Estate – saying that resources should work for people, not people for resources.

Borrowing powers.

Corporation tax control

In interview, said results showed Scotland would no longer listen to negative campaigning and scaremongering from any party.

Update 05.35: Pundit consensus is that Labour had no second vote strategy where the SNP had a good one and were, right up to the last minute were pushing both the constituency and the second vote. The prediction is that this should see the SNP also do well in the List votes and Labour less so. This is what supports the notion that an overall majority – the first devolved majority – might just be possible.

Update 05.44: Perth declaration: SNP Hold (Roseanna Cunningham).

Conservatives had hoped to take this one with LIz Smith but have come nowhere near doing so.

Update 05.57: Glasgow Anniesland declaration: SNP GAIN (Bill Kidd) Swing 10.1% Lab-SNP. SNP +15%. This is another demonstration that the SNP has moved from being a party of the North East to being a party for the country (Alex Salmond has now called it the National Party of Scotland). This is clear in its performance in the cities.

For Angela Haggerty: 151 majority – very narrow squeak. These results are extraordinary – the degree of the swing is steadily substantial. A pundit has just said 1931 was the last defeat for Labour that was as bad as this.

Good morning and thank you newsroom for all-night reporting. Historic: hope Scots can now move forward with a mature politics instead of squabbles and mudslinging. By no means over yet but congratulations to SNP for a great campaign

Update 02.37: Very interesting comments coming from Studio pundits – talking about Labour MPs possibly being brought back to Holyrood, talking about the mistake of Labour sending two MSPs to Westminster. We’re hearing Holyrood become the game to be in. This is a very real shift in perspective happening as we’re listening. This is just NOT what is needed – wee nippy sweeties a la Margaret Curran – she went to Westminster, she can stay there until she’s voted out!

Nothing else to do but doft my cap to the SNP. It is an outstanding result and irrespective of political allegiance it would be churlish not to recognise that. I didn’t vote SNP as I live in the dumbarton constituency and am more impressed by Jackie Baillie than Iain Robertson however if I lived further west I would have voted for Mike Russell. I wish Mike the best of luck though doubt he needs it. I believe there is a rotund lady warming her vocal chords outside a house in minard.

The SNP currently have the strongest leadership team by a country mile and that is reflected in this result. Labour need to get rid of Gray but the question is who to replace him with.

So well done SNP and Jackie and good luck mike. Let us hope the lib dem collapse continues in 2012

Now for the Scotland Act… Never mind additional powers at the moment, let’s hang on to the ones we currently have! ‘Call me Dave’ is trying to undo the devolution settlement which was (& is) the settled will of the Scottish people!

Amazing historic night – could not switch off my wee under pillow radio, resting but no sleep. Scotland will not be taken for granted anymore and fobbed off by London. Looking forward to hearing positive result for Mike Russell.

Still watching the coverage and great to see two Islay boys to the fore – Glenn Campbell and Alistair Carmichael. Have always liked Alistair despite his politics!
Dr D, moon landing indeed. I only wish my dad could see this, he always said that Scots would vote tactically until we got devolution then start voting with their hearts. The SNP have run a great campaign and deserve another 5 years, this time with some real power.

For islayresident: Agreed on both counts. Glenn Campbell gets better all the time – he was on superb form in today’s marathon, the best political journalist in Scotland; and Alastair Carmichael is always interesting, with a hint of mischief.