Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2014-15 season in May, 2015. (includes results from December 29, 2014 – March 26, 2015):

Program

Status

Renew/ Cancel Index

Manhattan Love Story*

canceled

0.48

Selfie*

canceled

0.53

Revenge

😥 😥

0.53

Forever

😳

0.55

Cristela (F)

😳

0.56

Resurrection*

😳

0.59

Galavant*

😳

0.73

Last Man Standing (F)

🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

0.74

Nashville

0.74

Agent Carter*

😐 😐 😐

0.78

Secrets & Lies

😐 😐 😐

0.80

Castle

🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

0.82

American Crime

😥 😥

0.84

Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.

🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

0.85

Fresh Off The Boat

🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

1.02

Once Upon A Time

1.10

black-ish

1.17

The Middle

1.18

The Goldbergs

1.28

Grey’s Anatomy

1.29

How To Get Away With Murder*

1.56

Scandal

1.67

Modern Family

1.77

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–This is a special vacation version of the cancellation bear’s predictions written on and including ratings and news through only March 26.

With the cancellation bear far, far away from TV news and his computer, he’s giving readers a chance to doubt *any* of his current renewal or cancellation predictions. The poll includes every show not already renewed or canceled, or currently predicted as a “toss up” by the bear. Choose as many shows as you’d like, and feel free to note how very, very wrong the bear is in the comments.
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How is Nashville certain to be renewed with such low ratings? Read this.
–Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. If you want to interact with the bear, Twitter, not these post’s comments, is the place to do that. It’s more fun for the bear and reaches far more people. While this post will likely be viewed many tens of thousands of times, the commenting audience is a tiny fraction of that (a few hundred comments is typical). Tens of thousands of fans follow the bear on Twitter.
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*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

😳

certain to be cancelled by May, 2015

😥 😥

more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2015

😐 😐 😐

toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2015

🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2015

certain to be renewed by May, 2015

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The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.