Cole: AP Punked on Iran by Junk Science Graph

Posted on 11/29/2012 by Juan

Yousaf Butt and Ferenc Dalnoki-Veress write at The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists:

This week the Associated Press reported that unnamed officials “from a country critical of Iran’s nuclear program” leaked an illustration to demonstrate that “Iranian scientists have run computer simulations for a nuclear weapon that would produce more than triple the explosive force of the World War II bomb that destroyed Hiroshima.” The article stated that these officials provided the undated diagram “to bolster their arguments that Iran’s nuclear program must be halted.”

The graphic has not yet been authenticated; however, even if authentic, it would not qualify as proof of a nuclear weapons program. Besides the issue of authenticity, the diagram features quite a massive error, which is unlikely to have been made by research scientists working at a national level.

The image released to the Associated Press shows two curves: one that plots the energy versus time, and another that plots the power output versus time, presumably from a fission device. But these two curves do not correspond: If the energy curve is correct, then the peak power should be much lower — around 300 million ( 3×10ˆ8) kt per second, instead of the currently stated 17 trillion (1.7 x10ˆ13) kt per second. As is, the diagram features a nearly million-fold error.

This diagram does nothing more than indicate either slipshod analysis or an amateurish hoax.

1. Holy bullshit and slander batman

It's not just the graph that is crap.

From the AP article:

"The International Atomic Energy Agency — the Vienna-based U.N. nuclear watchdog — reported last year that it had obtained diagrams indicating that Iran was calculating the "nuclear explosive yield" of potential weapons."

"Information provided to the Agency by two Member States relating to modelling studies alleged to
have been conducted in 2008 and 2009 by Iran is of particular concern to the Agency. According to that
information, the studies involved the modelling of spherical geometries, consisting of components of the
core of an HEU nuclear device subjected to shock compression, for their neutronic behaviour at high
density, and a determination of the subsequent nuclear explosive yield."

IAEA did not find those graphs, two unnamed countries presented them. Probably the same countries that tossed this graph at the AP.

Further... "It is therefore essential that Iran engage with the Agency and provide an explanation."

That means that they were not confirmed to be accurate at the time of the report. That section was put into the report so that Iran may have a chance to respond to the accusation.

There have been 3 subsequent reports since then with no mention of the graphs. That means that the inquiry on them has been dropped because the IAEA found out that they were falsified.