November 14, 2013 08:47 PM CSTNovember 15, 2013 01:00 AM CSTBill Nichols' notable college football predictions: Close one in Austin

Bill Nichols' notable college football predictions: Close one in Austin

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Michael Ainsworth/Staff Photographer

Texas 41, Oklahoma State, 36 (Sept. 29, 2012 in Stillwater): David Ash threw three touchdown passes to Jaxon Shipley and set up Joe Bergeron's 2-yard touchdown run with 29 seconds left. The Cowboys took the lead on Quinn Sharp's 24-yard field goal with 2:34 to play. J.W. Walsh started in place of injured Oklahoma State quarterback Wes Lunt and threw for 307 yards and two touchdowns and Joseph Randle added a career-high 199 yards rushing and two touchdowns. D.J. Monroe (pictured) added a 100-yard kickoff return touchdown. (AP)

6 p.m., Ch. 4: Undefeated Baylor is looking for a shot at the national title. Tech, losers of three straight, is unsure which freshman quarterback will start and is haunted by a 1-9 record in November since 2011. The Bears lead the Big 12 in rushing. The Raiders have allowed more than 275 yards rushing the last three games. Tech leads the Big 12 in passing. Baylor is No. 1 against the pass. Baylor averages 61.0 points scored and 15.4 allowed, an average margin of 45.6. Tech averages 37.8 points scored and 27.0 allowed, a 10.8-point average margin. So, that makes Baylor a plus-34.8. Subtract three points for Tech’s underdog motivation, and the Bears win by 31.8. Baylor 52, Texas Tech 20.

Oklahoma State at Texas (+3)

2:30 p.m., Ch. 4: The Longhorns have won six straight; the Cowboys five straight. Both teams average 5.7 yards per play and 4.5 per rush. UT averages 7.2 per pass to OSU’s 7.0. OSU has the better rush defense; Texas is better against the pass. The Horns have the edge on third-down conversions, but the Cowboys lead in turnover margin, plus-11 to plus-6. Oklahoma State 38, Texas 34.

Michigan State at Nebraska (+6 1/2)

2:30 p.m., Ch. 8: Michigan State seems poised to beat Nebraska for the first time. The Spartans’ defense held Michigan to minus-48 yards rushing with seven sacks among 11 tackles for loss. The Cornhuskers, always tough at home, revived their season with their dramatic win over Northwestern. Michigan State 31, Nebraska 23.

Connecticut (+14) at SMU

2 p.m.: SMU’s four American Athletic Conference games have been decided by an average margin of 51/4 points. The Huskies are looking for their first win. Signs point to Garrett Gilbert, the national leader in total offense, putting up big numbers at home. SMU 38, Connecticut 17.

Iowa State (+24 1/2) at Oklahoma

11 a.m., Fox Sports 1: The Sooners are 69-5-2 against the Cyclones, including 14 straight wins. The Sooners are coming off a 41-12 loss to Baylor. The Cyclones suffered their sixth straight defeat, to TCU, 21-17. The rested Sooners should roll at home. Oklahoma 39, Iowa State 13.

Stanford at USC (+3)

7 p.m., Ch. 8: Stanford has won five of its last six against USC, including three straight squeakers. The Trojans are 4-1, including wins over Oregon State and Arizona, under interim coach Ed Orgeron. The Cardinal is coming off a confidence-enhancing 26-20 win over Oregon. A victory keeps USC in the hunt for the Pac-12 South title. Stanford 27, USC 23.

Houston (+16) at Louisville

6 p.m., ESPNU: A curious point spread considering the Cougars’ only two losses were to UCF (7-1) and Rutgers (6-3) by a combined six points. Both teams are known for their offenses, but UH’s defense leads the nation with 18 interceptions and a plus-21 turnover margin, and Louisville is tied with Alabama for best scoring defense. Louisville 27, Houston 24.

West Virginia at Kansas (+6 1/2)

11 a.m.: West Virginia nearly pulled off a stunner against Texas, losing in overtime. The improved Mountaineers must win to keep their bowl hopes alive. Kansas has lost six straight. West Virginia 34, Kansas 23.

Miami at Duke (+3 1/2)

2:30 p.m.; ESPNU: Both teams are 7-2 but are moving in opposite directions. The Blue Devils have won five straight; the Hurricanes are coming off losses to Florida State and Virginia Tech. In ACC games, Miami leads the series, 8-0. Duke 28, Miami 24.

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