Wednesday, 21 September 2016

National’s
challenges over the Kermadecs Marine Sanctuary are a potential foretaste of
what is to come with its ongoing attempts to change the Resource Management
Act.

Three years ago, with
much fanfare, the then Environment Minister announced to the National Party
Conference a slew of proposed changes to the principles and practices of the
Resource Management Act, only to discover somewhat shamefacedly subsequently
the basic reality of politics – make sure you have the numbers first. National
did not have the support from its support partners, the Maori Party and
UnitedFuture to gut the Resource Management Act the way it wanted, so the
proposal was shelved. A further attempt, after the 2014 election, similarly hit
roadblocks, first when National lost the overall majority it briefly enjoyed
prior to the counting of special votes, and second, worse was to come, when it
lost the Northland by-election, meaning it could no longer rely on just ACT’s
vote to pass critical legislation. Since then, National has needed either
UnitedFuture, as well as ACT, or the Maori Party to do so.

During 2014,
National attempted to woo both the Maori Party and UnitedFuture on resource
management changes, all the time taking for granted ACT’s support, which proved
to be a near fatal blunder. Along the way, UnitedFuture’s discussions came to
an end when it became clear National’s proposed Ministerial veto procedures
could easily be a stealthy way of subverting the Resource Management Act’s
principles, without having to specifically amend them. Worse, ACT simply tired
of having its support just assumed. So, both parties decided to oppose
National’s legislation, leaving it reliant on the Maori party for any further
support.

The Maori Party’s
price was more Iwi involvement in the allocation of water rights, to which
National agreed reluctantly, just to get the legislation introduced. But the
Maori Party has made it clear that it regarded National’s early concessions as
no more than a downpayment, and that its future support would hinge on further
private agreements it had with the Minister regarding Iwi involvement being
incorporated into the Bill. All of which has left National in a self-made
quandary. It feels it has gone as far as it can already, perhaps too far for
some of its more conservative supporters, in its concessions to the Maori
Party, and that if it concedes more it may well alienate those supporters’
backing. On the other hand, if it loses the Maori Party’s support, it will not
be able to proceed with any resource management changes, so upsetting its
developer base.

Against that
background, earlier this year, ACT and UnitedFuture made proposals to National
on ways of resolving the looming impasse and meeting their own concerns about
the Bill in a way which could lead to their supporting it, and making the
government less reliant on the Maori Party. However, while those discussions
were cordial enough, nothing has eventuated in terms of a government response,
so the position remains one where the Maori Party’s decisions will determine
what happens to resource management changes. All of which has a familiar ring
to it when it comes to looking at the Kermadecs Sanctuary issue.

For its part,
UnitedFuture strongly supports the proposed sanctuary, as do most political
parties, so its ultimate fate is not an issue. The point is much more one of
process and relationships with support parties.

As Prime
Minister, John Key has been consistently especially sensitive, as has his Deputy,
Bill English, to ensuring and maintaining good relationships with support
partners, and, generally speaking, has been very successful in doing so.
(Indeed, maintaining that careful balance probably explains National’s
reluctance to adopt the ACT/UnitedFuture resource management reform proposals.)
But, unfortunately the importance of those relationships is not always
appreciated or understood by others in government, who seem to view the support
parties as just an automatic extension of National’s votes in the House.

Messrs Key and
English are far too astute to let the current Kermadecs row lead to the Maori
Party walking out of its confidence and supply agreement, and despite the
current chest-beating, it is really going way too far to suggest that it is a
remotely serious possibility. But the Prime Minister and his Deputy will be
using the incident to reinforce to colleagues the importance of maintaining
good relationships with support partners, especially since the Prime Minister
has made it clear that his preferred post-election option will be to carry on
with his existing arrangements, rather than be forced to lie prone and impotent
before the historically unreliable and serially quixotic New Zealand First, who
in perhaps another more unpleasant foretaste proved as much again this week.

How the
government handles both the Kermadecs and resource management issues might well
prove decisive to its long-term desired outcome. A prudent and long kick to
touch until more rational and balanced solutions can be found to both would
therefore be in the government’s best long-term interests.