Reform, Repression And Rightists

CAPE TOWN, SOUTH AFRICA — In South Africa, people fight for a meaningful vote because the masses are denied it. In the United States, all adults can vote for president but half don`t bother.

Both countries have held elections recently, one marked by repression and the other by apathy. They are worlds apart, geographically, politically, indeed in almost every way. Yet in both cases the power structure emerged much the same. George Bush walks in Ronald Reagan`s footsteps while the Senate and House remain Democratic.

In South Africa, Pieter W. Botha`s National Party retains its grip, though newly threatened by the right.

There was little comfort, in either election, for black South Africans seeking liberation from apartheid and white domination. In the United States, their perceived champion, Michael Dukakis, was beaten. In South Africa, their arch-enemy, the far-right whites, gained.

For all South Africans, the road ahead will be bumpy. For Americans, this must involve making critical decisions, in the not-distant future, over questions such as stepped-up sanctions and what pressures to apply to Pretoria.

The South African right wing has views which would make Bush`s moderate conservatism seem radically liberal. Its leaders-competent, eloquent and chillingly earnest-are determined to govern, and to take South Africa back to the worst days of racial domination. And they may just make it. If this is unlikely at the next parliamentary general election, expected next year, it could happen at the one after that.

The standard-bearer of the right-wing forces, the Conservative Party, has been sufficiently emboldened after the elections to issue a warning to the Botha government that must be taken seriously.

Made by deputy leader Dr. Ferdi Hartzenburg, it amounts to this: Do not consider refusing to hand over power, or staging a military coup to frustrate a victorious Conservative Party. This might sound a trifle over-dramatic, in view of what were, after all, only local elections, but it cannot be dismissed as frivolous.

In the long run, this embattled land will surely have majority rule, after an indeterminate amount of violence. Meanwhile, the growing prospect is of a far-rightist takeover or ostensibly ``reformist`` military rule. Both are invidious options.

The election means that the cautiously reformist Botha government will be under growing pressure from white supremacists. Every time it seeks to ameliorate the effects of apartheid, it will be savaged by the right. The prospect of full-scale military control, born of government frustration at being unable to rule any other way, is a distinct likelihood.

The elections, held in a state of emergency, were officially billed as to ``broaden democracy.`` The government not only lost some support to the right (which now controls much of the dominant Transvaal province) but failed to draw a substantial black voter turnout. The resulting frustration can fuel both repression and confusion.

Take the confusion. On the one hand, a prominent black lawyer and his family are reported to have been stripped and searched on the way to a lawful rally in Cape Town; yet the government falls over itself to apologize to a black Johannesburg editor for a midnight police visit after he had made suggestions about the way ahead in South Africa.

And President Botha confounds the critics (who thought he would not dare an enlightened move like this) and appoints Appeal Justice Michael Corbett, an independent-minded jurist highly respected in liberal quarters, to the crucial post of chief justice. Surprising diplomatic progress by Botha in his contacts with leaders of major black African states adds to the ``liberal`` image.

Yet there is plenty elsewhere for right-wing satisfaction, such as the suspension of newspapers like the Weekly Mail; the retention of segregation in most living areas and in government schooling; and a generally repressive security policy.

Meantime, the thudding drum of black nationalism is heard in the townships, where shootouts between security forces and urban guerrillas continue to claim lives. And there is no black stampede to support the government`s plans for constitutional reform, though government propagandists claim progress.

Botha is anxious to demonstrate ``legitimacy`` by holding his white support and gaining some black backing. The former requires repression, the latter reform. These objectives are contradictory. That`s why it is an uphill task.