Prospectus Hit List

Crashing the Party

the archives are now free.

All Baseball Prospectus Premium and Fantasy articles more than a year old are now free as a thank you to the entire Internet for making our work possible.

Not a subscriber? Get exclusive content like this delivered hot to your inbox every weekday. Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get instant access to the best baseball content on the web.

1

Grand, and Not So Grand:Curtis Granderson's two homers lead the Yanks past the Rays on the night they unveil a massive monument to the late George Steinbrenner and play host to prodigal sons Joe Torre and Don Mattingly. Granderson is hitting .261/.358/.543 with 11 homers since retooling his swing with hitting coach Kevin Long in mid-August, and Derek Jeter is riding a 12-game hitting streak (.327/.410/.404) thanks to Long's help as well. Alas, the Yanks are unable to do more than secure a split of the series with the Rays, and in losing the season series, their odds of winning the division plummet from 74 percent to 38 percent in two days.

3

Back-End Blues? After losing the first two games of their series in the Bronx with the Yankees, the Rays move into the driver's seat by taking the next two; although they're a half-game back in the AL East, they've now got 62 percent chance of taking the division thanks to a much easier schedule the rest of the way. Still, there's plenty of cause for concern given the rotation's recent performance, as Jeff Niemann, James Shields, and Matt Garza have combined for an 8.36 ERA in 11 starts this month while averaging just 4.7 innings per start. Niemann has been particularly brutal since returning from his DL stint, with a 14.43 ERA, 7.0 BB/9, and 2.8 HR/9 over five starts while averaging less than four innings.

4

A Tale of Two Starters: The Red Sox secure nothing more than a season split with the Orioles as Daisuke Matsuzaka is roughed up yet again. He hasn't yielded less than four runs in any of his last seven starts, and has just a .466 SNWP to go with his 4.86 ERA and his 4.4 BB/9. Faring better is Jon Lester, who blanks Toronto for seven innings even as his streak of four consecutive starts with at least 10 strikeouts comes to an end. Lester is third in the league in K's (212) and seventh in SNWP (.583).

6

Bombed, Out: An eight-game losing streak hammers the final nails in the coffin of the White Sox' season. This time it's the pitching staff bearing the brunt of the blame, as they compile a 7.13 ERA while allowing at least six runs in seven of the eight losses, and at least eight runs in five of them. Sox starters have put up a 5.96 ERA this month, with John Danks' 4.78 the best in show unless you count Freddy Garcia's 4.50 over six injury-curtailed innings. Speaking of injuries, Gavin Floyddeparts a start after seven pitches due to shoulder soreness; he's almost certainly done for the year. The real question is whether Ozzie Guillen-who's been understandably driven to drink under the circumstances-is done on the South Side; he's going into the final year of his contract and is seeking an extension or a chance to make a run at the Marlins' managerial opening.

7

Get Carter: After starting his major league career an agonizing 0-for-33-0-for-19 in his first stint, 0-for-14 in his second-Chris Carter collects his first major league hit to spark a game-winning rally against the White Sox-who drafted him in 2005, come to think of it. Carter keeps the good times rolling with three hits over the next two days, including his first major league homer, albeit in a losing cause.

8

Still Hammering Away: With four homers in a seven-game span, Jose Bautista becomes the 26th player in MLB history to reach the 50-homer plateau and the first since 2007. He's done it in 640 plate appearances this year after compiling just 59 homers in his previous 2,038 PA, accumulated with five teams over six years. The Jays' 234 homers lead the majors by a wide margin (the Red Sox are second with 199), but they're still 10 homers shy of the 2000 team's franchise record, and nine shy of cracking the majors' top 10 team totals>.

9

Penning a Recipe for Disaster:Jose Valverdevisits the doctor for an MRI on his sore elbow, and while he's got no structural damage, it's worth considering the link between his ugly second half (6.95 ERA and 6.5 BB/9 in the second half while being scored upon in 12 of 19 outings) and Jim Leyland's usage pattern. Two of Valverde's second-half appearances came at both ends of a July 25 doubleheader, and the one immediately following was a grueling 60-pitch affair; even while averaging more than two days' rest between outings beyond that, Valverde's performance hasn't improved. After ranking second in the league with 5.6 WXRL through the first half, the Tigers are dead last since the break at -0.6 and 11th overall thanks to a 6.08 post-break Fair Run Average.

10

Follow the Bouncing ERA:Ervin Santanashuts out the Rangers in just two hours and 12 minutes. The 27-year-old righty has enjoyed a nice rebound following an awful 2009, and appears set to continue a four-year trend of alternating ERAs in the fives and threes while avoiding anything in the middle. Catching him in the shutout is Hank Conger, who continues to work his way into Mike Scioscia's good graces at a time when Jeff Mathis' 12th-inning passed ball costs the Angels a game. Must be Conger's Mathis-like .188/.235/.313 line (in all of 17 PA, mind you).

11

Second Guessing: While Chris Getz is done for the season due to a concussion, Mike Aviles has been taking advantage of the available playing time at second base. He hits four homers in a five-game span and is batting .365/.388/.587 this month. Aviles' .268 TAv dwarfs Getz's .233, but questions about his defense have led keen baseball mindsTrey Hillman and Ned Yost to use the lighter hitter in an effort to support a shaky pitching staff; given that the Royals are last in the league in run prevention at 5.3 per game while ranking 10th in offense at 4.2, we can only admire such keen stragedy while noting that neither FRAA, UZR, nor Plus/Minus show more than a couple of runs difference in defensive value between the two.

12

Choo-Choo-Choose Him:Shin-Soo Choogoes yard three times en route to a 5-3-4-7 line against the Royals, then homers two days later to tie his career high at 20. Choo not only leads the Indians in virtually every offensive category, he's sixth in the league in OBP (.392) and fifth in TAv (.315). He's on the South Korea roster for the upcoming Asian Games in November, hoping to receive an exemption from his military obligation via a gold medal.

13

Hitless Wonders:Ichiro Suzukirecords his 10th straight 200-hit season thanks in part to a 4-for-4 night, but the rest of the Mariners offense remains an eyesore; Jose Lopezhomers three times to elevate his season line to a still-cringeworthy .237/.266/.337. The Mariners are now on pace to score just 513 runs, the lowest full-season total since the 1971 Padres. This is a team that through Wednesday was getting sub-.200 batting averages at catcher and DH, sub-.300 slugging percentages SLGs from catcher, second base and shortstop, and a cumulative .227/.288/.358 line from their third through sixth hitters.

14

Lost in the Shuffle:Brad Bergesen's third consecutive one-run outing helps the Orioles clinch a season split with the Red Sox, but while the starting pitching has been the key to the team's turnaround under Buck Showalter, not everyone's getting the hang of it. Chris Tillman lasts just 3.2 innings against the Yankees while walking six for the second straight outing. In between three separate minor league stints, he's managed just three quality starts out of nine en route to a 6.42 ERA and a .402 SWNP. Control is a major problem; he's throwing first-pitch strikes just 49.2 percent of the time en route to a 21/28 K/BB ratio and just 4.5 innings per start.

Paging through this season's Hit Lists, the last time a team besides the Yankees and Rays were in the top two was back on April 16 — the first regular-season AL Hit List (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=10580). Pretty amazing.