A new statistical analysis by NASA scientists has found that Earth's land areas have become much more likely to experience an extreme summer heat wave than they were in the middle of the 20th century. The research was published today in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

The statistics show that the recent bouts of extremely warm summers, including the intense heat wave afflicting the U.S. Midwest this year, very likely are the consequence of global warming, according to lead author James Hansen of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York.

"This summer people are seeing extreme heat and agricultural impacts," Hansen says. "We're asserting that this is causally connected to global warming, and in this paper we present the scientific evidence for that."

Hansen and colleagues analyzed mean summer temperatures since 1951 and showed that the odds have increased in recent decades for what they define as "hot," "very hot" and "extremely hot" summers.

The researchers detailed how "extremely hot" summers are becoming far more routine. "Extremely hot" is defined as a mean summer temperature experienced by less than one percent of Earth's land area between 1951 and 1980, the base period for this study. But since 2006, about 10 percent of land area across the Northern Hemisphere has experienced these temperatures each summer.

In 1988, Hansen first asserted that global warming would reach a point in the coming decades when the connection to extreme events would become more apparent. While some warming should coincide with a noticeable boost in extreme events, the natural variability in climate and weather can be so large as to disguise the trend.

To distinguish the trend from natural variability, Hansen and colleagues turned to statistics. In this study, the GISS team including Makiko Sato and Reto Ruedy did not focus on the causes of temperature change. Instead the researchers analyzed surface temperature data to establish the growing frequency of extreme heat events in the past 30 years, a period in which the temperature data show an overall warming trend.

NASA climatologists have long collected data on global temperature anomalies, which describe how much warming or cooling regions of the world have experienced when compared with the 1951 to 1980 base period. In this study, the researchers employ a bell curve to illustrate how those anomalies are changing.

A bell curve is a tool frequently used by statisticians and society. School teachers who grade "on the curve" use a bell curve to designate the mean score as a C, the top of the bell. The curve falls off equally to both sides, showing that fewer students receive B and D grades and even fewer receive A and F grades.

Hansen and colleagues found that a bell curve was a good fit to summertime temperature anomalies for the base period of relatively stable climate from 1951 to 1980. Mean temperature is centered at the top of the bell curve. Decreasing in frequency to the left of center are "cold," "very cold" and "extremely cold" events. Decreasing in frequency to the right of center are "hot," "very hot" and "extremely hot" events.

Plotting bell curves for the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000s, the team noticed the entire curve shifted to the right, meaning that more hot events are the new normal. The curve also flattened and widened, indicating a wider range of variability. Specifically, an average of 75 percent of land area across Earth experienced summers in the "hot" category during the past decade, compared to only 33 percent during the 1951 to 1980 base period. Widening of the curve also led to the designation of the new category of outlier events labeled "extremely hot," which were almost nonexistent in the base period.

Hansen says this summer is shaping up to fall into the new extreme category. "Such anomalies were infrequent in the climate prior to the warming of the past 30 years, so statistics let us say with a high degree of confidence that we would not have had such an extreme anomaly this summer in the absence of global warming," he says.

Other regions around the world also have felt the heat of global warming, according to the study. Global maps of temperature anomalies show that heat waves in Texas, Oklahoma and Mexico in 2011, and in the Middle East, Western Asia and Eastern Europe in 2010 fall into the new "extremely hot" category.

I'm not saying that the author of this article is asserting the following.

It's because the sun is burning hotter. Every planet in our solar system is warming. We are not the cause. Anyone who says we are, has an inflated, all of humanity size ego. We do not have that ability to heat our planet like they claim we can.

Virtually all of the CFC's that have been banned were at the end of their patents. And the company that held the patents wanted them banned so that they could corner the market on their newest patented crap that doesn't work as well as the original product. An example of this is Dupont with the banning of Freon. R134a is far more corrosive to an AC system and not nearly as efficient as freon.But, Dupont wanted to ensure they continued to corner the market on Refrigerant.

Just follow the money trail on most things that are said to contribute to global warming. And you will find someone's money agenda.

August 6th, 2012, 6:08 pm

TheRealWags

Modmin Dude

Joined: December 31st, 2004, 9:55 amPosts: 12312

Re: Research Links Extreme Summer Heat Events to Global Warm

Quote:

"This summer people are seeing extreme heat and agricultural impacts," Hansen says. "We're asserting that this is causally connected to global warming, and in this paper we present the scientific evidence for that."

Personally I haven't read the paper, and truth be told prolly wouldn't understand it if I did . That said, these are professional scientists that just put a small car on another planet over 150 Million miles away, I'll defer to them on science.

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August 7th, 2012, 9:39 am

m2karateman

RIP Killer

Joined: October 20th, 2004, 4:16 pmPosts: 10136Location: Where ever I'm at now

Re: Research Links Extreme Summer Heat Events to Global Warm

TheRealWags wrote:

Quote:

"This summer people are seeing extreme heat and agricultural impacts," Hansen says. "We're asserting that this is causally connected to global warming, and in this paper we present the scientific evidence for that."

Personally I haven't read the paper, and truth be told prolly wouldn't understand it if I did . That said, these are professional scientists that just put a small car on another planet over 150 Million miles away, I'll defer to them on science.

Here's the problem I have with those "scientists" Wags.

We have a really warm summer. It's because of Global Warming.We have a really cold winter. It's because of Global Warming.We have a really rainy summer. It's because of Global Warming.We have a mild winter. It's because of Global Warming.All these happen within the same decade. It's because of Global Warming.

Well, guess what. Really cold winters happened CENTURIES ago. Was global warming taking place then? How about when we've had rainy summers, mild winters and really hot summers with worse droughts, all decades ago, or centuries ago? Was all that caused by global warming brought about by humanities use of chemicals and the deterioration of the Ozone layer?

Scientists are paid to develop theories and make them popular. To me, that's precisely what Global Warming is, a theory that has become popular and a political sticking point.....no different than the Earth being flat, or the center of the universe.

_________________I will not put on blinders when it comes to our QBs performances.

August 7th, 2012, 11:35 am

Pablo

RIP Killer

Joined: August 6th, 2004, 9:21 amPosts: 9645Location: Dallas

Re: Research Links Extreme Summer Heat Events to Global Warm

This issue is a funny one to me. I've seen lots of evidence supporting global warming and lots of evidence saying it is caused by other things. People tend to gravitate to the supporting evidence if they lean that way or quickly dismiss it if they don't.

Logic dictates that as human population continues to increase and we change the landscape around the globe there will be consequences.

I would propose a path of caution and continued research. I don't see harm in protecting the environment, so long as it is done in a controlled and economically feasible manner.

This issue is a funny one to me. I've seen lots of evidence supporting global warming and lots of evidence saying it is caused by other things. People tend to gravitate to the supporting evidence if they lean that way or quickly dismiss it if they don't.

Logic dictates that as human population continues to increase and we change the landscape around the globe there will be consequences.

I would propose a path of caution and continued research. I don't see harm in protecting the environment, so long as it is done in a controlled and economically feasible manner.

Pablo of course you are right an we as a species need to take care of our home i as much as possible. My problem with global warming is that it is another fear tactic by our politicians.

We have already learned in another thread here that there is physical evidence that politicians have had scientist alter their findings to further the political agendas of their superiors. And I believe this article to amongst those.

Once against there is no mention of earths orbit becoming closer to the sun than has ever been recorded. There was a scientist long ago....mikato...a something ( I forgot his name sorry) that theorized that earths orbit does not always follow the same path in its revolutions. It,s never a drastic change and it's deviations take a process estimated to be aroun 23k years before it returns to its natural orbit. But his theory is the 2nd most popular theory on why th dinosaurs got wiped out and the #1 theory on what ended the ice age. This spring I heard on several news sources that the earth is closer to the sun since we've been recording the distance. That HAS to play a role in global warming. But where is that in this article. To me this is another attempt to scare us into making unessacary changes to what and how we do thing that really aren't effecting things a whole lot. If these so called experts aren't telling the whole story to us why should I put ANY stock into what they tell me?

Also it can deter from what the real problems may be. If we are closer to the sun the question must be asked , how much closer will we get? What repercussions can we expect and what can we do to preserve ourselves? I promise you recycling won't save us if this " orbital wobble" gets us too close. If we are too concerned with what politicians want us to find instead of the whole truth we may find ourselves with serious issues in 100 years with no plan in place to help us through it.

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August 7th, 2012, 12:27 pm

njroar

Player of the Year - Offense

Joined: September 25th, 2007, 3:20 amPosts: 2908

Re: Research Links Extreme Summer Heat Events to Global Warm

Want to see the worse possible scenario of Global Warming? Look at Venus. But then again, no man has ever been there, so it eliminates man as a cause, so it's ignored.

The main problem with the "science" in the above article is it's using 1951-1980 as it's baseline. We know from almanac's and other historical data that it was hotter in the middle ages than it was now, and there wasn't the population there is today nor the technology to cause it. The population across the globe was actually decreasing at the time due to the plague. You won't ever see a study that includes data from that far back because it disproves the theories before they can even say them.

It's no different than the hockey stick chart they threw out there a few years ago. By not including data that doesn't line up with your message, you end up with the "evidence" you need to put out a theory. And the problem is that this happens all the time when there's a financial reason to make it true.

August 7th, 2012, 1:26 pm

TheRealWags

Modmin Dude

Joined: December 31st, 2004, 9:55 amPosts: 12312

Re: Research Links Extreme Summer Heat Events to Global Warm

BillySims wrote:

Just follow the money trail on most things that are said to contribute to global warming. And you will find someone's money agenda.

It is always good to follow the money on anything.

m2karateman wrote:

To me, that's precisely what Global Warming is, a theory that has become popular and a political sticking point.....no different than the Earth being flat, or the center of the universe.

Agreed. A theory, the same as Big Bang and Gravity.

regularjoe12 wrote:

My problem with global warming is that it is another fear tactic by our politicians.

Agreed and I think we can thank / blame (depending on your perspective) Al Gore for that. Any time politicians get involved, many of us tend to think they're in it for something.

njroar wrote:

The main problem with the "science" in the above article is it's using 1951-1980 as it's baseline

I wondered the reasoning for that as well. After a brief search, I found this from :

NASA wrote:

The data set begins in 1880 because observations did not have sufficient global coverage prior to that time. The period of 1951-1980 was chosen largely because the U.S. National Weather Service uses a three-decade period to define “normal” or average temperature. The GISS temperature analysis effort began around 1980, so the most recent 30 years was 1951-1980. It is also a period when many of today’s adults grew up, so it is a common reference that many people can remember.

Not sure that it's sufficient info, but it does at least attempt to explain why that timeframe is used as the 'baseline'.As always the data needs to be verifiable and accurate.

_________________

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August 7th, 2012, 2:33 pm

wjb21ndtown

Re: Research Links Extreme Summer Heat Events to Global Warm

Pablo wrote:

This issue is a funny one to me. I've seen lots of evidence supporting global warming and lots of evidence saying it is caused by other things. People tend to gravitate to the supporting evidence if they lean that way or quickly dismiss it if they don't.

Logic dictates that as human population continues to increase and we change the landscape around the globe there will be consequences.

I would propose a path of caution and continued research. I don't see harm in protecting the environment, so long as it is done in a controlled and economically feasible manner.

I agree... I don't know why more isn't done to help 3rd world countries not pollute. We go to ridiculously expensive lengths here to get our "global footprint" down to virtually nill, while China, having 2000% more people than us, doesn't utilize clean coal, and has horrible standards. It seems to me that we should leverage them into being cleaner. Small improvements there would yield much more significant results overall.

August 7th, 2012, 3:35 pm

m2karateman

RIP Killer

Joined: October 20th, 2004, 4:16 pmPosts: 10136Location: Where ever I'm at now

Re: Research Links Extreme Summer Heat Events to Global Warm

Pablo wrote:

Logic dictates that as human population continues to increase and we change the landscape around the globe there will be consequences.

I would propose a path of caution and continued research. I don't see harm in protecting the environment, so long as it is done in a controlled and economically feasible manner.

I completely agree with this. There are definite consequences for deforestation and pollution, of that I am fairly certain. What the consequences will be, I'm not certain. We can only wonder what irrepairable damage we've already done by making various forms of flora extinct, as well as various insect and animal species. We know for certain that pollution has done significant damage to the worlds fresh and salt waters, destroying large portions of the Great Barrier Reef.

All that said, there is also some significance to the idea that some of the weather patterns are not caused by mankind, but rather by various other things. The idea that the sun is getting hotter is certainly something to look at. We have been told by science that our sun is a young star that will be expanding. We know that Solar Flares and Solar storms impact our planet, even to the point that some scientists theorize it could become so severe as to be an extinction level event. At the very least, it could affect our power grid in a critical fashion. The orbit of Earth moving us closer to the sun could be another issue. I don't know enough about it to comment, but I could see where the orbit is not following the same exact path year in and year out.

But, what does it matter anyways. The Mayans say we die this year on December 21st. Don't make New Years Even plans....

_________________I will not put on blinders when it comes to our QBs performances.

August 8th, 2012, 9:56 am

regularjoe12

Off. Coordinator – Joe Lombardi

Joined: March 30th, 2006, 12:48 amPosts: 4006Location: Davison Mi

Re: Research Links Extreme Summer Heat Events to Global Warm

Quote:

m2karateman wrote:

Pablo wrote:

Logic dictates that as human population continues to increase and we change the landscape around the globe there will be consequences.

I would propose a path of caution and continued research. I don't see harm in protecting the environment, so long as it is done in a controlled and economically feasible manner.

Quote:

I completely agree with this. There are definite consequences for deforestation and pollution, of that I am fairly certain. What the consequences will be, I'm not certain. We can only wonder what irrepairable damage we've already done by making various forms of flora extinct, as well as various insect and animal species. We know for certain that pollution has done significant damage to the worlds fresh and salt waters, destroying large portions of the Great Barrier Reef.

All that said, there is also some significance to the idea that some of the weather patterns are not caused by mankind, but rather by various other things. The idea that the sun is getting hotter is certainly something to look at. We have been told by science that our sun is a young star that will be expanding. We know that Solar Flares and Solar storms impact our planet, even to the point that some scientists theorize it could become so severe as to be an extinction level event. At the very least, it could affect our power grid in a critical fashion. The orbit of Earth moving us closer to the sun could be another issue. I don't know enough about it to comment, but I could see where the orbit is not following the same exact path year in and year out.

But, what does it matter anyways. The Mayans say we die this year on December 21st. Don't make New Years Even plans....

No sense in that with dick Clark not being around to ring in the new year! Score one for the Mayans...

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August 8th, 2012, 10:12 am

Pablo

RIP Killer

Joined: August 6th, 2004, 9:21 amPosts: 9645Location: Dallas

Re: Research Links Extreme Summer Heat Events to Global Warm

in a related story....

WSJ wrote:

July Marked Hottest Month on U.S. Record

WASHINGTON—This probably comes as no surprise: Federal scientists say July was the hottest month ever recorded in the Lower 48 states, breaking a record set during the Dust Bowl of the 1930s.

And even less a surprise: The U.S. this year keeps setting records for weather extremes, based on the precise calculations that include drought, heavy rainfall, unusual temperatures, and storms.

The average temperature last month was 77.6 degrees. That breaks the old record from July 1936 by 0.2 degree, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Records go back to 1895.

"It's a pretty significant increase over the last record," said climate scientist Jake Crouch of NOAA's National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. In the past, skeptics of global warming have pointed to the Dust Bowl to argue that recent heat isn't unprecedented. But Mr. Crouch said this shows that the current year "is out and beyond those Dust Bowl years. We're rivaling and beating them consistently from month to month."

Three of the nation's five hottest months on record have been recent Julys: This year, 2011 and 2006. Julys in 1936 and 1934 round out the top five.

Last month also was 3.3 degrees warmer than the 20th-century average for July.

Thirty-two states had months that were among their 10 warmest Julys, but only one, Virginia, had the hottest July on record. Mr. Crouch said that's a bit unusual, but that it shows the breadth of the heat and associated drought.

For example in 2011, the heat seemed to be centered mostly in Oklahoma and Texas. But this summer "the epicenters of the heat kind of migrated around. It kind of got everybody in the action this month," Mr. Crouch said.

The first seven months of 2012 were the warmest on record for the nation. And August 2011 through July this year was the warmest 12-month period on record, just beating out the July 2011-June 2012 time period.

But it's not just the heat that's noteworthy. NOAA has a measurement called the U.S. Climate Extreme Index which dates to 1900 and follows several indicators of unusually high and low temperatures, severe drought, downpours, and tropical storms and hurricanes. NOAA calculates the index as a percentage, which mostly reflects how much of the nation experience extremes. In July, the index was 37%, a record that beat the old mark for July last year. The average is 20%.

For the first seven months of the year, the extreme index was 46%, beating the old record from 1934. This year's extreme index was heavily driven by high temperatures both day and night, which is unusual, Mr. Crouch said.

"This would not have happened in the absence of human-caused climate change," said Pennsylvania State University climate scientist Michael Mann.

Mr. Crouch and Kevin Trenberth, climate analysis chief of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, said what's happening is a double whammy of weather and climate change. They point to long-term higher night temperatures from global warming and the short-term effect of localized heat and drought that spike daytime temperatures.

Drought is a major player because in the summer "if it is wet, it tends to be cool, while if it is dry, it tends to be hot," Mr. Trenberth said.

So the record in July isn't such a big deal, Mr. Trenberth said. "But the fact that the first seven months of the year are the hottest on record is much more impressive from a climate standpoint, and highlights the fact that there is more than just natural variability playing a role: Global warming from human activities has reared its head in a way that can only be a major warning for the future."

Here are some more numbers unlikely to provide cold comfort. The coolest July on record was in 1915. The coldest month in U.S. history was January 1979 with an average temperature of 22.6 degrees.

The main problem with the "science" in the above article is it's using 1951-1980 as it's baseline

One of the scientist behind this report was interviewed on Sci Friday on NPR. He said even if the same study was produced in any other period the standard deviation is still significant.

As an aside, those who wish to discuss this matter on a scientific level should know something about theory. In the science community, the word theory is not synonymous for 'educated guess'. The word for that is hypothesis. A scientific theory is more related to the term law.

_________________2011 Adopted Lion: Rob Sims/Looking for a side job at I.H.O.P because he can't stop making pancakes.

August 9th, 2012, 12:05 pm

WarEr4Christ

QB Coach

Joined: October 26th, 2005, 11:48 pmPosts: 3039Location: Elkhart, In.

Re: Research Links Extreme Summer Heat Events to Global Warm

From MY perspective, the Global Warming is a CONTROL ISSUE.

The US and remaining G6 or however many there are now, have instituted GREEN Laws, to "save the environment" which have done nothing more than regulate, strangulate, and limit companies and consumers. Meanwhile, China, and just about any other country that chooses to ignore the standard, does so at the cost of us all.

1979 there was a Global Cooling scare that had all kinds of science to support that we'd be wearing parkas by 2000, and that didn't happen.

Like many other things in this society it is about CONTROL.

But that's my opinion, take it for what it's worth, or don't.

_________________2 Chronicles 10:14, "if my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and I will forgive their sin and will heal their land."

August 9th, 2012, 3:49 pm

regularjoe12

Off. Coordinator – Joe Lombardi

Joined: March 30th, 2006, 12:48 amPosts: 4006Location: Davison Mi

Re: Research Links Extreme Summer Heat Events to Global Warm

Stallion wrote:

Quote:

The main problem with the "science" in the above article is it's using 1951-1980 as it's baseline

One of the scientist behind this report was interviewed on Sci Friday on NPR. He said even if the same study was produced in any other period the standard deviation is still significant.

As an aside, those who wish to discuss this matter on a scientific level should know something about theory. In the science community, the word theory is not synonymous for 'educated guess'. The word for that is hypothesis. A scientific theory is more related to the term law.

you went to far in the opposite direction with that. theory is NOT law. a theory has goals to become a Law, but should not considered the same as a law on principle.

For example...Stephen Hawkings just had the bulk of his black hole theories proven inacurate recently, thus the evolution of string theory has grown. 2 years ago some would have swore that to be a law in the works......whoops

Theories start out as educated guesses backed by significant data. this gets testeed and tested and tested untill it can not be proven wrong THEN becomes a law. While a theory should not be dismissed just because it's a theory (Einsteins theory of relativity for example) but should not be considered a Law either...ask poor Mr. Hawkings