He's not subtracting them out of the Blu-ray playback capable households. He's subtracting them out of the total Blu-ray playback capable devices sold (40 million per the DEG and the BDA).

Do try and keep up.

Per the BDA:

Quote:

40 million Blu-ray capable devices are now in U.S. households. The difference between 40 million units and the 36 million homes figure cited by the BDA is that some homes have multiple devices. (DEG)

That quote was from Bill Hunt not the BDA. Your assuming his interpretation not only was correct but clearly meant PS3s and Blu-ray players were treated equally in those comparisons or the reports were of the same period.

Quote:

Originally Posted by mikemorel

I don't know how much clearer it can be stated. 40 million blu-ray playback devices at the end of 2011. 19 million PS3s. 21 million blu-ray players.

You two are making the assumption that 40 million was units sold not 40 million Blu-ray playback capable households.

I don't see anywhere does it says in the DEG report that those were 40 million sold of anything.

__________________

."A lot of good arguments are spoiled by some fool who knows what he is talking about." - Miguel de Unamuno

"I understand the concept of optimism. But I think with me what you get is a lack of cynicism." - Tom Hanks

"I don't think you lead by pessimism and cynicism. I think you lead by optimism and enthusiasm and energy." - Patricia Ireland

Just to be clear here. You guys are relying on the Bill Hunt quote from his quick notes at the BDA presser or his personal Q&A at CES 2012? In any case, that's EOY estimated 2012 data as the December 2012 holiday numbers were still estimates at that time. The DEG 1Q 2012 and the CEA data is after that.

The BDA had software numbers that were higher than the DEG in that presser as well and I notice you all wanted to ignore that at the time as well. Its odd that you want to pick and choose using and relaying on the DEG data for software and not for hardware.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bill Hunt @ thedigitalbits

All right, we're going to wrap up our CES 2012 coverage here at The Digital Bits today by presenting a rundown of the latest Blu-ray format and related market data from the BDA and DEG.

According to the Blu-ray Disc Association:

Blu-ray has now reached 36 million homes in the U.S., which represents about 33% of all U.S. TV households. There's been a 40% increase in 2011 over 2010. (IHS Screen Digest)

40 million Blu-ray capable devices are now in U.S. households. The difference between 40 million units and the 36 million homes figure cited by the BDA is that some homes have multiple devices. (DEG)

Of the Top Ten Home Video Software Titles in 2011, over 40% had a Blu-ray Disc in the package (standalone BD movies and BD/DVD Combos). That's a 27% jump over 2010. (IHS Screen Digest)

U.S. Consumer spending on Blu-ray software topped $2 billion in the U.S. alone for the first time. (DEG)

It's estimated that by 2013, virtually all new Blu-ray players sold will have 3D capability. (Futuresource)

Nearly 75 million U.S. homes now have HDTVs. That represents about 65% of U.S. TV households. (Futuresource)

By 2014 over half of all new HDTV displays will have 3D functionality. (Futuresource)

The initial 3DTV adoption rate is exceeding that of regular HDTV. (Futuresource)

Blu-ray 3D titles sales increased tenfold in 2011. (Futuresource)

The number of 3D titles available increased to 89 in 2011, as opposed to just 31 in 2010. (Futuresource)

The BDA reps we spoke with at CES also offered a couple of other interesting piece of information:

BD-R media costs are now low enough that they're one of the most affordable means of long-term data storage (video, photos, etc). Data recorded on high-quality BD-R media (from leading manufacturers) is specked to remain stable for decades. Sony in particular guarantees that recordings on their BD-R media will last for 25-30 years.

Blu-ray Disc players remain a better value than streaming media players, as they offer compatibility with nearly all recorded discs formats as well as offering the same streaming media and playback functionality for the same price.

Some additional market data provided by the DEG:

"Blu-ray Disc and EST continued to perform remarkably well with consumer spending on Blu-ray sellthrough up 20 percent and EST up nine percent for the year. Additionally, consumer spending on VOD was up seven percent."

"Blu-ray Disc has evolved to become the standard for home entertainment. Impressively, both new release and catalog sales saw double digit growth of 20 percent in 2011."

"Increasing the value of ownership for movie lovers, Sony Pictures Home Entertainment, Universal Studios Home Entertainment and Warner Home Video launched their first Blu-ray Disc titles with UltraViolet in 2011. The DEG estimates that more than 100 UltraViolet titles will be available in 2012. Lionsgate and Paramount Home Media Distribution also have plans to launch titles in 2012."

An additional note on UltraViolet: It's now compatible with both Android and iOS/Apple devices through downloadable apps (though not with iTunes). Also, UltraViolet aims to begin adding special features to its movie content later in 2012, including commentaries and more.
(DEG)

The number of Blu-ray homes continues to grow rapidly as Blu-ray players offer consumers increased versatility and affordability. Total Blu-ray penetration in 2011 jumped 38 percent (including BD set-tops, PS3s and HTiBs) with total household penetration of all Blu-ray compatible devices now at nearly 40 million U.S. homes.

Q3 2011

The number of Blu-ray homes continues to climb, soaring 52 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier (including BD set-tops, PS3s and HTiBs.) Total household penetration of all Blu-ray compatible devices now stands at more than 33.5 million U.S. homes.

Q2 2011

In the second quarter, the number of Blu-ray homes grew 16 percent over 2010 (inclusive of BD set-tops, PS3s and HTiBs,) bringing the total household penetration of all Blu-ray compatible devices to more than 31.6 million U.S. homes. This makes Blu-ray one of the fastest-growing new technologies in the home entertainment industry.

Q1 2011

Additionally, Blu-ray Disc hardware increased, with sales (inclusive of BD set-tops, PS3s and HTiBs) up more than 13 percent over first quarter 2010. This brings total household penetration of all Blu-ray compatible devices to nearly 30 million U.S. homes.

That quote was from Bill Hunt not the BDA. Your assuming his interpretation not only was correct but clearly meant PS3s and Blu-ray players were treated equally in those comparisons or the reports were of the same period.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kosty

Just to be clear here. You guys are relying on the Bill Hunt quote from his quick notes at the BDA presser or his personal Q&A at CES 2012?

Now Bill Hunt was wrong...

Quote:

You two are making the assumption that 40 million was units sold not 40 million Blu-ray playback capable households.

Bill Hunt just cofirmed it. Andy Parsons, the spokesman for the BDA said blu-ray was in 36 million homes. And Andy Parsons, spokesman for the BDA, continued to say there are 36 million blu-ray homes on more than one occasion.

Andy Parsons: Once we get a format like Blu-ray finalized, we really don't want to add more codecs on a running basis because we want to make sure that all titles will work properly on the installed base of players in consumers' homes (currently in excess of 36 million households in the U.S. alone).

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kosty

I don't see anywhere does it says in the DEG report that those were 40 million sold of anything.

Are you still clinging to the notion that there are more than 30 million standalone blu-ray players sold since launch?

So blu-ray households went from 27.5 million at the end of 2010 to 36 million at the end of 2011. Blu-ray devices went from 28.5 million at the end of 2010 to 40 million at the end of 2011.

Cumulative PS3 sales were 15.5 million at the end of 2010. Which means (according to DEG) standalone blu-ray players were 28.5M - 15.5M = 13 million players sold, at the end of 2010. So 8 million standalone blu-ray players sold in the US in 2011, for a total of 21 million since launch. NOT more than 30 million at the end of April 2012, as you are trying to sell.

I am not trying to sell anything, I'm just describing what I have been told in the past and from what I understand of the methodology of the sources we are describing.

Quote:

Are you still clinging to the notion that there are more than 30 million standalone blu-ray players sold since launch?

That's not really my position. I never said that in that manner. What I said was that I thought, based on what I know about the methodologies involved and what I have been told of the way the CEA organizes data that I thought that the CEA report from this year counted only Blu-ray players and not PS3s in the data points.

I did not bring the subject up, I was only responding with what I know to add to the discussion. Blu-ray hardware numbers have always been a bit problematic to judge as we only get occasional information on the subject.

You are making a better case for your position there though.

I think one of the things that still you don't get is that different sources can have different magnitudes but the trends can be similar. But you are now making more sense by using the apples to apples comparisons within the DEG report.

I'll personally see the CEA people in NYC in a couple months and I'll probably be able to ask personally the question of Blu-ray player sales and get a definitive answer.

One thing though, if we go by the 40 million Blu-ray playback devices off the DEG 4Q EIY 2011 report and assume that means all Blu-ray hardware and PS3s sold and assume the difference in the 36 M BDA report was households with duplicate Blu-ray players or a Blu-ray player and a PS3, that's only a delta of 4 million households or 10% of less of households having duplicate Blu-ray devices. That seems very low.

__________________

."A lot of good arguments are spoiled by some fool who knows what he is talking about." - Miguel de Unamuno

"I understand the concept of optimism. But I think with me what you get is a lack of cynicism." - Tom Hanks

"I don't think you lead by pessimism and cynicism. I think you lead by optimism and enthusiasm and energy." - Patricia Ireland

This was the USA Today interpretation of the DEG EOY 2011 report along with some additional remarks from the DEG:

Quote:

The number of U.S. homes with Blu-ray players grew to 40 million, 38% higher than in 2010. Also on the rise: the number of homes with HDTVs, which now tops 74.5 million. "Consumers and movie lovers are really investing in HDTVs and Blu-ray players to get their home theaters the best they can possibly be," DEG Executive Director Amy Jo Smith says.

One thing though, if we go by the 40 million Blu-ray playback devices off the DEG 4Q EIY 2011 report and assume that means all Blu-ray hardware and PS3s sold and assume the difference in the 36 M BDA report was households with duplicate Blu-ray players or a Blu-ray player and a PS3, that's only a delta of 4 million households or 10% of less of households having duplicate Blu-ray devices. That seems very low.

Yes, it does. Especially in light of the most recent DEG report. But that is what they reported.

The DEG seems to have acknowledged multiple devices in homes at the end of 2010 (27.5 million households, 28.5 million players, a delta of 1 million). The number of playback devices being sold into homes that already have playback devices during 2011 and into 2012 seems to be increasing. And it makes sense that it should.

I tend to believe that 26% figure by CES/Centris as that comes out to a little over 30 million homes. 40 million players in those homes would be an average of 1.33 players in every home. That makes more sense to me, as well as the 26% penetration figure. Furthermore, only 2.4 million BD-capable devices sold last quarter would correlate much better with the 40 million total sold, than with the 36/40 million households (which would probably mean well over 50 million sold if using a sensible player per household ratio)

Yes, it does. Especially in light of the most recent DEG report. But that is what they reported.

The DEG seems to have acknowledged multiple devices in homes at the end of 2010 (27.5 million households, 28.5 million players, a delta of 1 million). The number of playback devices being sold into homes that already have playback devices during 2011 and into 2012 seems to be increasing. And it makes sense that it should.

Maybe if we went back from 2006 onward and captured all the narrative mentions of Blu-ray hardware we might glean something. But the DEG reports do not seem to be the model of clarity there.

The entire issue of Blu-ray players or playback devices sold or its household penetration has always been a problematic issue for us to follow since there is the complication of the PS3 and multiple devices and the suspicions that multiple devices in the same homes were being counted as different households in the statistics.

Add into that the always present factor that different sources or surveys use different ranges for the time periods and that sales data is bing mixed with consumer survey data and the estimates for magnitudes are a bit of a mess.

That's why I think the trends within the same source data and identical reports over time is the best way to look at it and to take a suspicious eye on any magnitude of sales or household penetration statistics.

I have seen a lot of data that is NDA over the years that never gets publicly released, even when it is general agreement with the PR released data and we have nothing like the old CEA released data that thedigitalbits has for DVD or what the CEA released afterwards for DVD. The CEA has not released similar data for Blu-ray players like they did for DVD even though they do keep track of that data.

So we are somewhat limited and in the dark about what we can discuss on the subject of Blu-ray hardware sales over time.

The best thing we can do is to look at identical reports like the DEG data over time for apples to apples comparisons. Then perhaps we can compare the other sporadic reports to give us some ranges where they are consistent as well.

Keeping track of Blu-ray hardware is nothing like Blu-ray movie sales where we have a wealth of consistently reported weekly and quarterly reports to observe and comment about.

Quote:

Originally Posted by DEG 4Q EOY 2010 report

U.S. BLU-RAY DISC PLAYER SALES TOP 28.5 MILLION UNITS
Blu-ray Disc playback devices – including set-top box and game consoles – sold through more than 28.5
million units since launch. Some six million devices sold in the fourth quarter alone, bringing total units sold to
11.25 million in calendar 2010, according to numbers compiled by the DEG with input from retail tracking
sources.

__________________

."A lot of good arguments are spoiled by some fool who knows what he is talking about." - Miguel de Unamuno

"I understand the concept of optimism. But I think with me what you get is a lack of cynicism." - Tom Hanks

"I don't think you lead by pessimism and cynicism. I think you lead by optimism and enthusiasm and energy." - Patricia Ireland

I tend to believe that 26% figure by CES/Centris as that comes out to a little over 30 million homes. 40 million players in those homes would be an average of 1.33 players in every home. That makes more sense to me, as well as the 26% penetration figure. Furthermore, only 2.4 million BD-capable devices sold last quarter would correlate much better with the 40 million total sold, than with the 36/40 million households (which would probably mean well over 50 million sold if using a sensible player per household ratio)

I'm really not sure.

This subject has always been a mess, a year or two ago we went in circles talking about this at HDD.

Again magnitudes between any data sources are always going to be problematic to compare even with sales data. Add in that to properly assign and compensate for multiple devices in the home you have to make assumptions or relay on consumer surveys to identify the degree of multiple devices and that varies depending on the time of year, its problematic. Plus Blu-ray hardware analysis has the issue that the PS3 is a unique device that is a major element in Blu-ray household penetration that did not exist with DVD...

Surveys are always a problem with CE devices as some consumers cannot properly identify what they own especially in a online survey. There was a Harris Interactive poll a while back that had HD DVD devices growing faster than Blu-ray players well after the format war ended as consumers were misidentifying their upconverting DVD players or new DVD players as HD DVD players. Stuff like that happens all the time in consumer surveys no matter how well they are administered. Its just accepted that in any consumer survey, especially Internet based based reports the tendency is for consumers to misidentify some items and/or undercount things.

__________________

."A lot of good arguments are spoiled by some fool who knows what he is talking about." - Miguel de Unamuno

"I understand the concept of optimism. But I think with me what you get is a lack of cynicism." - Tom Hanks

"I don't think you lead by pessimism and cynicism. I think you lead by optimism and enthusiasm and energy." - Patricia Ireland

I'm not sure what that ratio is anymore. As Blu-ray hardware prices fell in the 4Q 2010 period and have been under $100 for a while a lot of PS3 owners have gotten a Blu-ray player as well in the home.

A lot of early adopters who bought early generation Blu-ray players in 2006 and 2007 and even 2008 have upgraded to faster better players as well.

How additional Blu-ray hardware sales affect the gains in Blu-ray households over time is probably not a constant either.

__________________

."A lot of good arguments are spoiled by some fool who knows what he is talking about." - Miguel de Unamuno

"I understand the concept of optimism. But I think with me what you get is a lack of cynicism." - Tom Hanks

"I don't think you lead by pessimism and cynicism. I think you lead by optimism and enthusiasm and energy." - Patricia Ireland

Probably the best thing to do would be to get as many quarterly players sold figures together as possible (along with the quarter that it occurred in), in order to see the growth trend. I would guess that Q4 = Q1+ Q2 + Q3. The quarterly reports would have to be unambiguous in terms of mentioning actual players sold, as well as mentioning that the include all BD-capabel devices (or PS3s). Also YoY percentages increases would be very useful to calculate what quarter a year ago sold.

Shouldn't be that difficult to get enough data together to further verify that 40 million total units sold to date.