With UFC 107 (which we’ll be liveblogging) set to rock Memphis, Tennessee’s precious little world on Saturday night, we take a moment to argue over who’s going to be wearing gold when the night is over, who’s got a championship in their future, and what the UFC should do about future events that get crappier with every news cycle.

Is Diego Sanchez going be the toughest challenger BJ Penn has ever faced as UFC lightweight champ? How do you see that fight going?

BF: I definitely think Sanchez is the toughest lightweight challenger Penn has faced, but that’s not saying all that much. Much of his career has been spent fighting bigger guys like Georges St. Pierre and Matt Hughes. The two times he has defended his title since beating Joe Stevenson for it, he fought Sean Sherk and Kenny Florian. Sherk basically took himself out of the fight by trying to outbox Penn, despite his T-Rex arms, and Florian just didn’t have anything with which to threaten him. Sanchez is better on the feet than both those guys, and he’s also more aggressive and harder to hurt.

So yeah, Sanchez is the toughest title challenger yet. Big deal. I still think Penn beats him without much trouble. Penn’s stand-up is better, he has superior finishing power, and Sanchez won’t be able to take him down easily. The only major advantage Sanchez might have is cardio, but that hasn’t typically been an issue for Penn at 155 pounds. I’m picking Penn via TKO in the fourth.

BG: Sanchez isn’t just better on the feet, more aggressive, and harder to hurt than BJ Penn’s two previous opponents at lightweight. He also has certain psychological advantages — as strange as that is to say about someone who’s so obviously insane. Penn’s fight strategy usually involves getting in his opponent’s head before the match, and breaking his opponent down mentally during the match. That won’t work with Sanchez. There’s no hot-button trash-talk that will set him off (a la Sean Sherk and the steroid accusations). Sanchez doesn’t speak reverently of BJ as a "master" like Florian did. He’s too positive to doubt himself, and too crazy to quit. The Nightmare comes off as completely fearless, which is big help when you’re fighting a seemingly unbeatable champion.

Penn still has all the martial advantages, so I wouldn’t bet against him. But to say that Penn beats Sanchez without much trouble? No way. BJ will have a beast on his hands tomorrow night. I say the champ retains his belt via close (but unanimous) decision, in a fight that makes us momentarily forget how awful the UFC’s main events have been lately. Afterwards, Sanchez will say that he could go on for another five rounds. Penn will be so exhausted that he’ll barely be able to lick the blood off his gloves.

Between all the recent fighter-pullouts and general lack of title fights (aside from Penn vs. Sanchez), would it be a good idea for the UFC to cancel an event once in a while? Can an overload of mediocre product hurt the brand in the long run?

BG: It seems to me that the UFC is becoming a victim of its own momentum. Building the brand by continuously holding events in new cities has increased the overall frequency of their shows, yet the amount of quality product they have to offer hasn’t increased at all. Maybe if the UFC absorbed the WEC’s featherweight and bantamweight divisions, or launched a women’s division, it would be a different story. But as things stand now — with all the injured champions and staph-addled contenders — they’re simply trying to do more with less, and it isn’t working.

Here’s what bothers me: I get the feeling that Dana White wouldn’t cancel a show under any circumstances, no matter how weak things get. There has to be a threshold of quality below which a UFC event is called off, and in my opinion, UFC 108 has sunk below that threshold. Rashad vs. Thiago isn’t main-event quality, and yet there’s nothing else on the card to really get excited about. I feel bad for anybody who paid full price for a ticket to see Silva vs. Belfort, or Big Nog vs. Velasquez, or Gonzaga vs. Dos Santos, or Daley vs. Condit, and who will now be sitting through one of the thinnest pay-per-view lineups in UFC history. The card is wrecked. At this point, UFC 108 should be canceled and the fights should be re-distributed to the events directly before and after it. It’s not a solution that I would recommend more than once every few years, under extreme circumstances, but if there was ever a time for it, it’s now.

The odds of this actually happening are very low, because Dana White is a proud man. But maybe dismal PPV buys and overwhelmingly negative fan reaction to the event will convince him to slow down the UFC’s frequency until the champions are defending their belts again and we’re at the point where we’re not complaining about every single lineup. The UFC can’t really be blamed for the Injury Plague of 2009, but they’re turning off a lot of fans by plowing forward as if nothing’s wrong.

BF: Well, look who’s ready to cut and run at the first sign of trouble. I should have expected this from a New York City elitist like you. Okay, so the UFC got hit with some bad breaks and as a result the people who bought tickets to see what they thought was going to be a main event to tell their grandkids about, well, they end up paying $500 a pop to see a fight they won’t even remember by Monday morning. That’s not the ideal situation, but your solution is for the UFC to just throw their hands up and say ‘screw this, we’re staying home’?

Let’s consider the long-term consequences of that. Since the fight’s in Vegas around New Year’s, plenty of the attendees will be coming from out of town, and they probably already have their flights and/or hotels booked. Probably they’re thinking of this as the one vacation they take every year to keep them from going crazy and murdering their families. These fights might not be what they were hoping for, but it’s still an excuse to get plastered in Vegas and they can still buy their wife a TapouT thong at the arena to show her that she was never completely forgotten during this little Mancation.

Only now you’ve canceled it. Now they’ve got nothing to do on their Vegas vacation except guzzle mixed drinks out of an Eiffel Tower-shaped receptacle and get thrown out of strip clubs for trying to convince the dancers to wrestle one another on stage. Meanwhile, you’ve burned a bridge with the arena where you booked the event many months ago, your marketing materials are now Christmas wrapping paper, and your fighters are grumbling to the media about being jerked around. Now tell me, how is that better than putting on the best event you can, even under difficult circumstances?UFC 107 features a lot of guys who have either had their championship dreams smashed already, or else never ever got that close. Take a look at the undercard and tell me which fighter has the greatest chance to be a champion some day. Then tell me how far away that day is.

BF: Damn, mysterious Ben vs. Ben question-generating oracle. That’s a tough one. If you hadn’t specified the undercard as the place to look, I would have said Diego Sanchez. I don’t think he’ll win this time around, but he’s still young (almost 28), lives clean, trains hard, and he should be around long enough to get himself a belt one day.

But if I absolutely have to limit my choices to the undercard, I’ll take Jon Fitch. In order for it to happen he’ll need someone to retire – preferably someone whose initials rhyme with PSP – and soon, but he’s the most talented fighter outside of the main event. It doesn’t help that he’s actually older than the current welterweight champ, or that he got mauled by him the first time around, but hey, maybe St. Pierre will get bored and leave MMA altogether in order to test himself in the world of competitive ballroom dancing. Stranger things have happened.

BG: Here’s the problem with Fitch: He hasn’t finished a fight in two-and-a-half years, Dana White hates his management, he won’t fight the other highly-ranked members of his camp, and he already challenged for the belt once. Put all that together, and you can assume that Jon Fitch will only be given another title shot as an absolute last resort. And if he keeps drawing opponents like Mike Pierce, the Shocking Upset Fairy will visit him sooner or later and toss him down the ladder.

Doesn’t it make more sense to say that Frank Mir has the greatest chance to be a champion again? I mean, he beat Brock Lesnar in their first match, so theoretically he might be able to do it again, right? And what if Lesnar is never the same because of his health issues? What if he never returns at all? That would open up the division nicely for the cocky grappling wiz from Las Vegas. Of course, he’d still have to deal with massive wrestlers like Shane Carwin and Cain Velasquez at some point, but we’ve all seen Mir produce miracles off his back. If he can beat Cheick Kongo, he’s still very much a player in the heavyweight title picture, and we could be watching him take another shot at the belt this time next year.

Cagepotato Comments

Showing 1-25 of comments

Man, Clay Guida needs to get his ass kicked. He has a lot of character and all, but he pretty much fights strictly on cardio, toughness, and controlling positions. Granted, he's been in a few cool fights, but his fighting style practically guarantees at least 8 minutes of hugging. I suppose I can appreciate it on a tactical level; Guida uses his wrestling and cardio to control his opponents into victory. But the dude has seemingly zero stopping power against elite lightweights. Guida needs to finish some more opponents before the UFC even thinks of having him fight BJ Penn. Can you imagine a fight between Guida and Penn? Penn would fuck him up.

steampunk22- December 11, 2009 at 7:02 pm

@BobLoblaw

He was probably one one fight away from a shot. He dropped back to back fights in the UFC after winning 5 in a row (in the UFC). One of those losses was to Jon Fitch. Then he won two against essentially no name opponents, which didn't really get him anywhere in the division.

Diego would've gotten a shot, but he dropped two in a row to highly ranked contenders in Josh Koscheck and then Jon Fitch. There's his lack of a title shot right there. Not really surprising when you look at it that way really. I don't think he got jerked around.

BobLoblaw- December 11, 2009 at 3:49 pm

i have to chime in on this. when diego sanchez was destroying anything in his path in the ww division, why didn't he ever get a title shot? i'm talking about the time when hughes was the champ. gsp is a worthy champ, and i'm a huge fan of his, but i'vve always felt that diego got the short end of the stick when it came to title shots. sanchez was never near contention for the title when hughes was wearing the belt. here's the thing - sanchez had 17 consecutive victories and no title shot. fitch had a title shot, and he came out of nowhere. if you look at their records, sanchez's and gsp's are almost the same. a whole lot of victories and only 2 losses. smells like sanchez got fucked around by ufc management enough that he had to drop weight classes in order to get the title shot he deserves and has earned. i'm just sayin'

Koeikan- December 11, 2009 at 3:26 pm

Am I the only one that *completely* disagrees with the thought that Sanchez is better on his feet than Florian?!

LetMeStickItInYourRua- December 11, 2009 at 2:13 pm

"Mir performs miracles off of his back."

So that's what he does when he's not fighting eh?

robthom- December 11, 2009 at 1:37 pm

Rashad vs. Thiago is a great fight.

Better than the ghost of Vitor vs Anderson Silva. In fact Vitor/Anderson is just pop fluff bullshit.

In fact I'd go so far as to say that Rashad/Thiago is a better fight than Big Nog vs. Velasquez (Valasquez is way too green, under the bus), Gonzaga vs. Dos Santos (Gonzaga is all but officially an upper b also ran, its over), or Daley vs. Condit (Daley is more neat looking bullshit ala Kongo).

Rashad and Thiago are two great fighters evenly matched for a title/revenge shot.
You could say that its not Headline worthy to MTV mouth breathers because they're not from japan like nog and they're not the phenom like belfort but its a genuinely better fight than any of those potential matchups IMO.

Deadletter- December 11, 2009 at 1:04 pm

I'm rooting for Sanchez, wanna see the 155's get shook up a bit!
But there's one major positive in him losing, we might see the "NO Cartwheel!"
followed by him walking out with has face as intense as ever shouting "NO! NO! NO!" Can't wait!

Savageleto- December 11, 2009 at 1:01 pm

I think Diego beating Penn, and Guida beating Florian for a rematch of their earlier fight this year over a belt this time is a pretty exciting prospect.

Don't say it can't happen... BJ is overdue for getting KTFO.

DangadaDang- December 11, 2009 at 12:36 pm

And Griffin just pulled out of 108 as well, so there goes that

ProfessorMMA- December 11, 2009 at 12:32 pm

Sanchez by early 3rd round KO

RPS13- December 11, 2009 at 12:12 pm

this is actually really insightful commentary. you guys do know what you're talking about lol

exes.for.iballs- December 11, 2009 at 12:08 pm

@Nate

Lol. His tights do seem to be the source of his power. Penn is a much better fighter, but aoki can pull crazy subs out of his butt and catch anybody. You're probly right though, and catching bj would probly be the only chance he has.

@armfarmer

Aoki doesn't need to take anyone down. He either pulls guard or throws a flying sub. But you're right too. Bj would pound him before that happened.

I was just throwing some names out. Good comments.

ArmFarmer- December 11, 2009 at 11:35 am

Aoki would never be able to take bj down, and even if he did he might lose there too. He would get crushed by strikes well before that point though.

NateGetsIrate- December 11, 2009 at 11:25 am

@ exes:

Dude, Aoki? No freaking way. Plus, he'd be at a disadvantage in the octagon b/c he wouldn't be allowed to fight in pantyhose.

If anything, i'm thinking Matt Serra would be the most competetive for Penn at 155. I can't understand what he's doing at 170 to begin with, since he could be a stand in for one of the oompa loompa's.

Stein- December 11, 2009 at 10:46 am

Diego will kick Blow Jobs ass!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! nuff said

BuckWild- December 11, 2009 at 10:43 am

Also..

I think some of the WEC 145'ers should step up to lighweight and fight. That would be awesome!

BuckWild- December 11, 2009 at 10:42 am

I think Rashad vs Thiago is a good (not great) main card. Both only have one lose. Rashad is a former Champ and Thiago was second in line to fight for the title before the current Champ gave him his first lose. I think it will be a good battle and someone will get ktfo !

All that said. Its not enough to carry the event. The rest of the event is garbage. Fights that should be on Fight night!

steampunk22- December 11, 2009 at 10:40 am

@JesusTapped

I thought you were gonna go for the "I produce miracles on your mom's back". Well, we mostly had the same thought. ;P

I would've liked to see the question of whether or not Guida deserves a title shot, or one more fight for the number one contender spot, should he beat Florian.

Guida ranks in the top 10 (at 9) in the UFC's lightwight division. And given that Penn is fighting Sanchez (4th ranked), the 2nd ranked fighter Gray Maynard is fighting the 10th ranked Nate Diaz, the division starts to open up to a Vitor Belfort-esque jumping of contenders as a lot of these guys have already fought each other, especially with some of the guys rounding out the middle of the top 10 already being tied up with upcoming fights against much lower ranked fighters. (think Edgar vs Veach and Griffin vs Miller)

Should Guida get a shot if he beats Florian? Should he have to fight the winner of the similar ranking stack up of Maynard and Diaz? Shine your handsome wisdom in this general direction Ben's!

exes.for.iballs- December 11, 2009 at 10:39 am

@Nate

Aoki, alverez and hell boy.

@the bens

The biggest threat to challenge for a belt from the undercard is palhares! I can't be the only person who thought this was an obvious answer! He has excellent jui jitsu and crazy strikes.

He is the man and anyone who disagrees hugs the nuts of whoever they think is better! Nut huggers!

exes.for.iballs- December 11, 2009 at 10:38 am

@Nate

Aoki and hell boy.

@the bens

The biggest threat to challenge for a belt from the undercard is palhares! I can't be the only person who thought this was an obvious answer! He has excellent jui jitsu and crazy strikes.

He is the man and anyone who disagrees hugs the nuts of whoever they think is better! Nut huggers!

northandclark- December 11, 2009 at 10:25 am

Is there anybody who is really low on the undercard that you guys like to make something of themselves? Is there an up and comer anywhere in the early fights worth paying attention to?

ArmFarmer- December 11, 2009 at 10:23 am

BJ is going to put Diego away. People forget how good bj's td defense is and his striking is far superior to Diegos. I'm putting a large bet on BJ.

Payday- December 11, 2009 at 10:19 am

Why does everyone dangle on Okami's nuts? Let's break it down and see how worthy he is for a shot at the title:

In his last 6 fights he is 4-2. The two losses come at the hands of Rich Franklin (who got destroyed by Silva, so do the MMA math), and Chael Sonnen, not exactly a world beater in his own right.

His 4 wins were over a broke dick Dean Lister (now out of the UFC), Evan Tanner who was on the backside of his career, Jason McDonald (now out of the UFC), and outsized Mick Swick to a decision.

Of his 9 UFC bouts he's only finished 4. For a guy who is deserving of a title shot and is so huge for his weight class, he should be finishing fights more regularly. Obviously he's not a finisher and trying to go the distance with The Spider is a recipe for a concussion.

GetUpAndKill- December 11, 2009 at 10:02 am

God what a Coconut for a head. Incredible really.

Mike Milbury- December 11, 2009 at 9:57 am

@El Famous Burrito: Okami vs. Silva, right?

El Famous Burrito- December 11, 2009 at 9:54 am

There's still one fight out there that could save any UFC event in need of a main event.

You know what it is that I refer to.

Jesus tapped my sister- December 11, 2009 at 9:52 am

Your mom produces miracles off her back.

mthomas- December 11, 2009 at 9:50 am

I love being visited by the Shocking Upset Fairy!

Sabado Gigante- December 11, 2009 at 9:40 am

You know things are bad when Ben vs. Ben is more main event worthy than Thiago vs. Rashad

NateGetsIrate- December 11, 2009 at 9:30 am

I wish that "oracle" would have asked the question of which lightweight, in and outside the ufc, poses the greatest threat to BJ.

BobSapp- December 11, 2009 at 9:29 am

I'd like to see that Belt come to San Diego.

Payday- December 11, 2009 at 9:21 am

I hope Sanchez gets KTFO. His "crazy as a shit house rat" act is old, old, old...

El Famous Burrito- December 11, 2009 at 9:19 am

Wow, I never thought of it before, but Jon Fitch is now the White Okami.

Sucks for you, dude.

meanfinger- December 11, 2009 at 9:10 am

its gonna be a war.. i would put my money on sanchez. too bad rampage bitched out fighting on this card.. i'd buy it if he was still on vs. evans.