354
AXUS74 KLUB 261603
DGTLUB
TXC017-045-069-075-079-101-107-125-153-169-189-191-219-263-269-
279-303-305-345-369-433-437-445-501-281615-
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1103 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015
...DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND
ROLLING PLAINS...
SYNOPSIS...
ALTHOUGH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS WAS NEAR
NORMAL...A DEFICIT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS REMAINS.
SNOW FELL EARLY IN THE MONTH ACROSS ALL BUT THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS PROVIDING SOME MOISTURE FOR SOIL CONDITIONS. AFTER A COLD
START TO THE MONTH OF MARCH WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL...
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WERE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE MIDDLE OF THE
MONTH BEFORE FINALLY GOING BACK ABOVE NORMAL BRIEFLY AT THE START OF
THE LAST FULL WEEK IN THE MONTH. DROUGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN MOSTLY
UNCHANGED WITH A MINOR EXPANSION OF EXTREME DROUGHT INTO HALL COUNTY.
MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS REMAINED IN NO TO ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS
WHILE THE ROLLING PLAINS REMAINED IN A MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT.
SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...
.AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS.
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS...WARMER TEMPERATURES HAVE HELPED THE WINTER
WHEAT CROP DEVELOP. FIELDWORK CONTINUES IN PREPARATION FOR SPRING
PLANTING. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL HAD NOT FALLEN...
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAIN SAW IMPROVED RANGELAND FOR LIVESTOCK.
COOL SEASON GRASSES WERE PROVIDING SOME FORAGE AND LIVESTOCK WERE IN
MOSTLY GOOD CONDITION. ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS...HEAVIER RAINFALL
WAS RECEIVED WITH SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVING 2-3 INCHES. THIS PROVIDED
SOME RUNOFF FOR SURFACE WATER SUPPLIES BUT MORE WAS NEEDED. COOL
SEASON GRASSES PROVIDED FORAGE AND SOME WARM SEASON GRASSES WERE
STARTING TO SPROUT. LIVESTOCK WERE IN FAIR CONDITION BUT WERE
IMPROVING THANKS TO ADDITIONAL WINTER FORAGE BECOMING AVAILABLE.
.FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS.
THE COMBINATION OF NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE AND THE LACK
OF STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGES HAS KEPT SIGNIFICANT FIRE POTENTIAL IN
THE LOW TO AT TIMES MODERATE CATEGORY THUS FAR THROUGH THE LATE
WINTER AND EARLY SPRING. IN FACT...ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT VALUES
PRESENTLY REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL AND IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO 10
YEAR HISTORICAL LOWS RATHER THAN HIGHS. FUEL LOADS REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH THE PRESENCE OF STILL CURED GRASSES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTH PLAINS...ROLLING PLAINS...AND FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
HOWEVER...GREEN UP IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS WARMING TEMPERATURES
INTERACT WITH ENHANCED SOIL MOISTURE.
THE UPCOMING PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR PREVAILING DRY CONDITIONS
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE AVERAGE. EXACTS REGARDING INITIAL
ATTACK ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND NUMBER OF DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGES IN THE COMING WEEKS...BUT CLIMATOLOGY POINTS TO
THESE LIKELY BECOMING A MORE FREQUENT OCCURRENCE...SIMILAR TO WHAT
OCCURRED LAST EVENING /MARCH 25/. BURN BANS CURRENTLY REMAINING
CONFINED TO A QUARTER OF THE 24 COUNTIES IN THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LUBBOCK COUNTY WARNING AREA MAY CERTAINLY EXPAND INTO APRIL
WITH THIS EXPECTED DRYING AND WARMING. THIS WILL BE MORE LIKELY IN
THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS
WHERE ONE TO TWO MONTH RAINFALL DEFICITS REMAIN THE GREATEST.
CLIMATE SUMMARY...
MARCH BEGAN WITH CONTINUED TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. A PERSISTENT
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND TROUGHING
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES ALLOWED FOR THE WEAKER
POLAR VORTEX TO CONTINUE ITS INFLUENCE ON THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES WHICH PUSHED COLD AIR SOUTH ACROSS WEST TEXAS. A
SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOWS BEGAN TO BREAK DOWN THE STEADY
RIDGING BY MID-MONTH AND TEMPERATURES MODERATED AND REMAINED AT OR
NEAR NORMAL VALUES. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE END OF MARCH HAS
RESULTED IN A WARMING PERIOD THAT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES.
PRECIPITATION WAS BELOW NORMAL FOR MARCH. SNOWFALL ON THE 3RD AND
4TH ACCOUNTED FOR A MAJORITY OF THE MEASURED PRECIPITATION AREA
WIDE. MOST LOCATIONS SAW FROM A TRACE UP TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVED ACROSS WEST TEXAS ON THE 18TH PRODUCING
SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP THAT WAS PRIMARILY MEASURABLE IN OUR SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE COUNTIES. AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS
TRANSITIONED TO MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE
BEEN DIFFICULT TO COME BY AND NO RAINFALL HAS BEEN REPORTED.
PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
MARCH WILL END DRY AND RATHER WARM WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY
APPROACHING THE LOWER 90S THIS SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. APRIL
MAY START OFF WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH LATEST
COMPUTER MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED PRECIPITATION. THEREAFTER...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED WITH OCCASIONAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES THAT COULD RESULT IN
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. MONTHLY PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR
MARCH WILL BE ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION PER THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER. THE NEXT
FOUR WEEKS ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE THE OPPOSITE...WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
RESERVOIR LEVELS WERE DOWN BETWEEN 0.1 AND 0.2 FEET OVER THE PAST MONTH.
THE FOLLOWING RESERVOIR CONDITIONS WERE REPORTED MARCH 26TH:
RESERVOIR SUMMARY CONSERVATION POOL 5-WEEK MAXIMUM PERCENT OF
POOL TODAY CHANGE DEPTH CONSERVATION
(FEET) CAPACITY
MACKENZIE LAKE 3100 3009.3 -0.01 59 7
WHITE RIVER LAKE 2370 2342.6 -0.02 16 4
LAKE ALAN HENRY 2220 2210.0 -0.01 67 74
NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED ON APRIL 23RD OR
SOONER IF NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS.
RELATED WEB SITES...
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU
NOAA DROUGHT PAGE:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV
OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://WWW.CLIMATETEXAS.TAMU.EDU
NWS PRECIPITATION:
HTTP://WWW.WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP
USGS:
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/
USACE:
HTTP://WWW.MVR.USACE.ARMY.MIL
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
USDA:
HTTP://WWW.USDA.GOV/OCE/WEATHER
TEXAS AGRILIFE EXTENSION AGENCY CROP AND WEATHER REPORT:
HTTP://TODAY.AGRILIFE.ORG
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE
USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL
DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS
BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...THE TEXAS
TECH/WEST TEXAS MESONET...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...
THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.
QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2579 S LOOP 289 SUITE 100
LUBBOCK TX 79423
PHONE...806-745-4926
LUB.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV
$$