Gulf disturbance grows, now may ultimately track toward Texas

The disturbance now entering the Gulf of Mexico is receiving a lot of attention today, and the latest afternoon models are worth discussing.

First, however, let’s take a moment to marvel at the wonders of modern forecasting technology. Ten days ago, when there wasn’t more than a whiff of storminess in the Caribbean Sea, forecast models were predicting the possibility of a storm forming this weekend in the Gulf. That’s darn impressive.

OK, back to the storm at hand. Here’s a look at what’s coming into the Gulf this afternoon:

It's a large area of storminess. (NOAA)

As of its 1 p.m. CT update, the National Hurricane Center has upgraded to 50 percent the chance that this disturbance becomes a tropical depression or storm within the next 48 hours. That’s a significant jump from this morning. It has been designated Invest 96L.

The other big news is the massive change in the forecast track of the European model, which now eventually brings this system toward Texas as a strong tropical storm rather than to Florida.

Unlike the Canadian model, which I highlighted this morning, forecasters take the European model very seriously because it has a good track record with hurricane forecasting in recent years.

The European model brings a strong tropical storm to the Texas coast next Friday. (Policlimate)

Here’s what we know:

1. The system poses a threat to the entire U.S. Gulf Coast. It’s just not clear where it will eventually go.

2. The trends in its development suggest it’s more likely than not to become a tropical depression or storm by Saturday or Sunday.

3. Over the next two or three days Invest 96L likely to slowly drift north into the Central Gulf of Mexico. After that steering currents are unclear.

That’s the extent of what we know. After the storm reaches the central Gulf of Mexico there are a couple of possibilities.

In one scenario a large area of low pressure over the Eastern United States strengthens. This would provide a steering current by dragging up the storm system and shoves it quickly northeast across Florida next week. Until this afternoon this is the scenario most of the major models favored.

However, another possibility, one reflected by the European model above and now a majority the most reliable models, is a further strengthening of the upper level high pressure over the southern United States. This would block further northern progression by 96L, eventually pushing it toward Texas or northern Mexico by the middle of next week.

What will happen? We just don’t know, says Fred Schmude, a forecaster with ImpactWeather.

“This far out our confidence is very low considering steering currents will be weak and erratic later this weekend into early next week, so the best advice right now is stay tuned to the latest developments,” he said. “We’ll have a much better idea of the eventual track of this storm system once were able to gauge the strength of the Deep South upper high and East Coast trough.”

We’ll also have a better idea when a center of circulation develops, which would provide better information for the track models.

As for intensity, it’s late June, and the Gulf of Mexico is plenty warm. If the European model is right, the system will have four or five days over the Gulf, which is plenty of time for the system to get organized. So there’s potential, but at this point who knows.