Mar. 25, 2013
|

Oregon forward Carlos Emory (33) celebrates with guard Johnathan Loyd (10) during a break in the action against the Saint Louis Billikens during the third round of the NCAA basketball tournament at HP Pavilion. The Ducks defeated the Billikens 74-57. / Cary Edmondson, USA TODAY Sports

Signature win: There's plenty to choose from. The Ducks beat Arizona at home, UNLV on the road an UCLA in a pair of encounters outside of Eugene.

But the 68-55 deconstruction of Oklahoma State in the round of 64 was an emphatic message at how blatantly under-seeded Oregon was.

This isn't hindsight declaring the committee made a poor decision slotting the Ducks as a No. 12 seed. It was rather clear Oregon belonged roughly around a No. 7 or No. 8 seed. Its profile looked a lot like Notre Dame's, and the Fighting Irish rightfully earned a No. 7 seed before making their customary early exit.

Team strength: Balance

No one averages 12 points a game for Oregon.

Six guys average eight points a game for the Ducks.

And therein lies a substantial advantage for Dana Altman's team.

Who is going to create headaches? It could be E.J. Singler. Perhaps it is Damyean Dotson. It might even be Carlos Emory, who is the only Duck to lead the team in scoring in three consecutive games (he did so in February's final three contests).

So yes, Louisville is good at defense. Really good. But at the very least, the Ducks can field a lineup with five plenty capable offensive players, and they'll at least have a chance to score against the Cardinals in the round of 16.

This team will remind you of: 2008 Villanova

The 2008 Wildcats had their share of guards (Scottie Reynolds, Corey Fisher, Corey Stokes, Dwayne Anderson and Malcolm Grant) and their share of turnover problems. But they pulled a 12/5 upset against a roster with no tournament experience (Clemson) and went on to lose to the eventual national champions in the round of 16 (Kansas).

The 2013 Ducks aren't quite as guard-oriented, but they sure do have trouble holding onto the ball (more on that in a bit). They pulled a 12/5 upset against a team coming off a two-year NCAA tournament hiatus (Oklahoma State) and now encounter one of the tournament favorites in the regional semifinals.

Team weakness: Turnovers

Oregon averages 15.1 turnovers a game. That's a lot - more, in fact, than all but one team that reached the NCAA tournament (Villanova).

Louisville forces 19.0 turnovers a game. That's a lot - more, in fact, than all but one team that reached the NCAA tournament (Virginia Commonwealth).

So, in short, Oregon has an obvious liability the No. 1 overall seed in the tournament (which happens to be its opponent) is equipped better than nearly anyone to exploit.

If things get ugly Friday in Indianapolis, there's already a pretty good explanation in the bank for why it happens.

Names to know: E.J. Singler (you might remember his brother Kyle from Duke's 2010 national championship team) averages a team-high 11.6 points, but don't forget about Arsalan Kazemi. One of many players who fled Rice after last season, Kazemi's rebounding translated quite nicely to the Pac-12 --- nicely enough to rank third in the conference at 9.9 rebounds per game.

Kazemi had 16 rebounds in the round of 64 defeat of Oklahoma State, and 17 more two days later against Saint Louis. He had 18 boards earlier this season against California (a tournament team) and 15 against Cincinnati (another tournament team). In short, he's a ferocious interior player, and one Louisville will have difficulty countering Friday.

Duck data: Since the tournament expanded to 16 teams in1953, Oregon is 4-5 in its first postseason game. In the three previous years the Ducks won a game in that span (1960, 2002 and 2007), they lost in the round of eight.