Hurricane JOVA

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HURRICANE JOVA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011
500 AM PDT MON OCT 10 2011
...JOVA WOBBLING EASTWARD...EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...16.3N 107.0W
ABOUT 255 MI...405 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...8 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAZARO CARDENAS NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA SAN TELMO MEXICO
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
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AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE EYE OF MAJOR HURRICANE JOVA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.0 WEST. JOVA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
THE HURRICANE WILL BE NEARING THE COAST OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JOVA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND JOVA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE LATER TODAY. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE
UNTIL LANDFALL.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO
90 MILES...150 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
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WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE
COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREAS BY TUESDAY MORNING. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE
THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.
RAINFALL...JOVA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER THE STATES OF MICHOACA...COLIMA...AND
JALISCO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY JOVA WILL BEGIN AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
NEXT ADVISORY
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NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.
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FORECASTER STEWART
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