Report: 2013 Will Make or Break Alternative Fuels

This will be the year that makes or breaks individual alternative fuel technologies in North America, according to a new report from Lux Research, "Leading Alternative Fuel Developers Race to Real Revenue in 2013." Several next-generation plants are scheduled to begin operations, while funding sources are changing. The result is that some alternative fuels sources look like better prospects than others.

The trillion-dollar North American fuels market is so large there's room for multiple technologies, Andrew Soare, Lux Research analyst and lead author of the report, told us. The study divides alternative fuels into eight categories: crop modification, pretreatment, algae, gasification, bioprocessing, pyrolysis, torrefaction, and catalytic conversion. Some are lesser-known technologies, such as torrefaction, which is used to make a biocoal. Others -- crop modification, pre-treatment, and bioprocessing -- represent different stages of processes to create biofuels like ethanol or butanol from crops.

This will be the year that makes or breaks alternative fuel technologies in North America, according to a new report from Lux Research. (Source: Lux Research)

One of the least promising fuel technologies is algae. In spite of its high potential for productivity, the industry has experienced "a long, tough road economically," said Soare. There are opportunities for making higher-value specialty chemicals from algae, but high capital costs and its high water usage means algae-derived fuel will not likely be able to compete on price with other fuels during the next decade.

Gasification is more of a mixed bag. Its ability to take in a wide range of feedstocks, such as municipal solid waste and waste biomass, is its major value. Many leading producers are targeting electricity markets for the near term. Fuels that capitalize on the technology's lower feedstock cost may be a longer-term potential.

Pyrolysis is also flexible about feedstock requirements. While most developers are looking at wood, some are using plastics. Pyrolysis produces an oil that needs some further refining, but the end product tends to be higher quality than gasification. "Getting capital costs down where plants are affordable to build, and focusing on lower-cost feedstocks, both need to be done, but it's a promising sector," said Soare.

Catalysis converts animal fat or vegetable oil into biodiesel and renewable diesel. Biodiesel's processes were understood before those of renewable diesel, and it's easier to make. The two terms refer to two different chemistries for producing alternative diesel fuels from biological feedstocks, either plant-based or animal-based oils. Renewable diesels, chemically the same as petroleum-based diesels, lack oxygen atoms, so they need additives to provide lubricity. Both are usually blended with petroleum-based diesel, although biodiesel can be used in pure form. Both can be used in the unmodified engines of diesel vehicles.

It's easier to use vegetable oil in bulk, but prices of virgin vegetable oil feedstocks can be higher than prices of animal waste, said Soare. Animal fat has to be aggregated somehow, and some rendering companies are developing their own gathering infrastructure.

I can see several flaws in that basic design concept/system architecture--what do cars do for power when they're not on the road? If it means they have to switch power sources, isn't that unnecessarily complex and costly? And doesn't it put too much "power" of another sort in too few hands?

Mydesign, the energy requirements for a stationary object--such as an energy source for a building that provides lights, heating and outlets for plugging in electric/electronic devices--will be very different from an object that must a) propel itself somewhere, and usually also b) provide energy for lights, heating and outlets for plugging in electric/electronic devices. It takes a huge amount of energy to self-propel, which we moderns have perhaps forgotten, since we're so used to the combustion engine and the "horseless carriage." But that aside, solar power is simply another potential source for electricity for an electric vehicle, but one without nearly enough energy density.

Ann, I think other than moving applications, everywhere solar power generators are using. Especially with industries, hospitals, offices etc. But I think its bit difficult & not that much reliable in fixing solar panels over a moving object, especially automobile.

Mydesign, thanks for the clarification on your end. I'm not surprised that the numbers were run for household solar, not other applications. Household solar is on everyone's radar, but other uses have a lot less visibility. Too bad, since it would be good to have more data about other applications easily available.

Ann, thanks for the clarification. When I further dig in to the article, it seems that the ROI and other statical details mentioned are for solar energy for house hold purposes. Am not sure about such statists for automobiles.

Mydesign, are you still talking about the use of solar energy for vehicles? In your previous comment on this, you mentioned that a Wikipedia article cited power density, cost and vehicle design considerations as constraints. I was pointing out that if cost is a problem, it probably has at least as much to do with the low power density, which would be an ongoing problem as a cost-of-ownership factor, as it would with the initial one-time cost of the solar module. So even if there's a 4-5 year ROI on the module--on a house or on a car--in a car there will still be a cost-of-ownership problem with low power density.

"cost is also a constraint, as you point out, but that's primarily because of the low energy/power density."

Ann, am not sure about the cost part. But for house hold purposes, vendors or service proving companies are clamming that ROI is possible within 4 year and there won't be any maintenance for 5-6 years.

LP (liquid propane) has been proposed several times as a transportation fuel. But even as a fuel for use in the home--as it is out here in the woods--it is hindered by the main problem of distribution. It has to be trucked in big tankers since it won't flow in pipes as natural gas does. OTOH, gas stations here routinely dispense LP, at least into small portable handheld tanks.

University of Southampton researchers have come up with a way to 3D print transparent optical fibers like those used in fiber-optic telecommunications cables, potentially boosting frequency and reducing loss.

Focus on Fundamentals consists of 45-minute on-line classes that cover a host of technologies. You learn without leaving the comfort of your desk. All classes are taught by subject-matter experts and all are archived. So if you can't attend live, attend at your convenience.