Winnipeg Jets 2012-13 Player Leaders and GM Analysis

The new Winnipeg Jets 2.0 established themselves as a mediocre NHL team in 2011-12, finishing 4th in their division and missing the playoffs. Being built on the Atlanta Thrashers hockey team True North acquired a team that were just one or two steps above an expansion franchise.

But despite this poor outcome Winnipeg and Manitoba adopted the team enthusiastically. Jets fans would have to wait a bit longer to watch their new team play in 2012-13 when NHL owners locked out the players for four months which resulted in the season starting in January and limiting the season to 48 games.

What follows is an analysis of the 2012-13 team and how Jets Management has been successful in building the team, with a particular focus on GM Kevin Chevaldayoff and the transactions he implemented.

Each player who played in 2012-13 is identified by how they were acquired by the Atlanta Thrashers/Winnipeg Jets which can be via a Trade deal, a Draft pick, a Free Agent signing, or a Waiver pickup. Below this table I analyze the team’s composition and the turnover of players who stay with the organization for the 2013-14 season.

In reviewing the 2012-13 scoring table, we see that the Jets lost last year’s success in diversified scoring. Instead their top line of Little, Ladd, and Wheeler was their main offense with some help from Kane and a few of the defencemen. The team’s turnover was not as bad as 2011-12 as the team’s identity became better defined.

Below I separate out the Jets Roster by the Player Route taken or the way the player got to be part of the Jets. We find that the Jets get most of their performance from Atlanta’s trades, whereas the year before it was the draft picks. The Free Agents as a group under contributed and had the worst plus/minus ratings as well. Ouch!

Jets Skating Lineup Efficiency (due to injuries and lineup changes)

If all 18 skaters played all 48 games there would be a 0.00% substitution rate.

The Jets had 28 skaters in its lineup which means a 55.56% substitution rate.

Team Composition by Player Route

Games by Scater’s Route

Goals by Scater’s Route

Draft

11

28.95%

Draft

277

32.06%

Draft

43

34.13%

Free Agent

8

21.05%

Free Agent

209

24.19%

Free Agent

24

19.05%

Trade

6

15.79%

Trade

259

29.98%

Trade

50

39.68%

Waivers

5

13.16%

Waivers

119

13.77%

Waivers

9

7.14%

Points by Scater’s Route

+/- by Scater’s Route

Draft

119

34.90%

Draft

-19

47.50%

Free Agent

66

19.35%

Free Agent

-21

52.50%

Trade

127

37.24%

Trade

2

-5.00%

Waivers

29

8.50%

Waivers

-2

5.00%

# of players who played for the Winnipeg Jets or St. John IceCaps the Next Season (NS): 21

70.00%

of 30 players compared to 68.42% of 38 players in 2011-12.

# of players who left the Next Season (NS): 9

(6 Free Agents, 2 Waivers, 1 Draft)

30.00%

of 30 players compared to 31.58% of 38 players in 2011-12.

Now how well did Cheveldayoff do as far as his contributions to the team? Using the above numbers, I separated out those players that he directly had a hand in bringing to the Jets either via Draft, Free Agency, Trade, or Waiver pickup. You can see his 2012-13 transactions here.

Cheveldayoff’s Deals

Team Composition by Player Route

Games by Scater’s Route

Goals by Scater’s Route

Draft

1

2.63%

Draft

4

0.46%

Draft

0

0.00%

Free Agent

5

13.16%

Free Agent

83

9.61%

Free Agent

12

9.52%

Trade

1

2.63%

Trade

36

4.17%

Trade

1

0.79%

Waivers

5

13.16%

Waivers

119

13.77%

Waivers

9

7.14%

Total

12

31.58%

Total

242

28.01%

Total

22

17.46%

Points by Scater’s Route

+/- by Scater’s Route

Draft

0

0.00%

Draft

0

0.00%

Free Agent

24

7.04%

Free Agent

-19

47.50%

Trade

4

1.17%

Trade

-4

10.00%

Waivers

29

8.50%

Waivers

-2

5.00%

Total

57

16.72%

Total

-25

62.50%

# of Cheveldayoff players acquired but did not stay with the team after 2012-13: 5

This is 55.55% of the 9 total players who left. It remains to be seen if this is a trend or is a high number, but it does

appear that Cheveldayoff does not keep people around if they do not fit even if he originally chooses them.

So with a shortened season due to lockout we see a slight drop in the Cheveldayoff players impact. Last season, his players made up 36.84% of the team and this season it goes down to 31.58%. Interestingly, despite the smaller number of players, those players did make a bigger impact in terms of games and goals relatively. Unfortunately those players were also guilty for the majority of the goals scored against the team, capturing 62.50% of the total minuses. That’s brutal.

So once again, Cheveldayoff’s impact as a GM in two years is overall poor but premature since none of his drafted players have made the team. In addition, his Free Agent deals and Trades have been awful, resulting in under-performance and defensive liability. His waiver pickups appear to be his greatest strength. It is widely expected that 2013-14 will see the first of his draft picks making the team which will give a better testimony to his skill as a GM.

Essentially the Winnipeg Jets are just a tad different from the 2010-11 Atlanta Thrashers
with the majority of those core players continuing to play for the organization.

The Jets improved their season standing from 37-35-10 to 24-21-3 with essentially the same core team.
The slight improvement appears to be due to a greater definition of team identity and a
slightly better commitment to the coaches messages.

Chris Billows is a knowledge seeker, a libertarian who believes in social responsibility, a health care bureaucrat, and a business dabbler. The Journals of Doc Surge is his personal blog.
Doc Surge (a cool synonym for Billows) is inspired by Doc Brass from the Planetary Comic series who in turn was inspired by the 1930s pulp hero Doc Savage.