RGIII or Andrew Luck

Duante Culpepper also inherited one of the most incredible offenses of the decade of the 90s, RG3 has no Randy Moss or Cris carter.

Uhm,

The year I'm specifically talking about is Culpepper's career year in 2004, when he threw for 4700 yards and led the league in several throwing categories. Chris Carter had already retired. Randy Moss only caught 49 passes for 700+ yards because he was hampered with a hammy injury all year. The team's leading receivers were Jermaine Wiggins, Nate Burleson and Marcus Robinson. Yes, THAT Jermaine Wiggins, Nate Burleson and Marcus Robinson.

The year I'm specifically talking about is Culpepper's career year in 2004, when he threw for 4700 yards and led the league in several throwing categories. Chris Carter had already retired. Randy Moss only caught 49 passes for 700+ yards because he was hampered with a hammy injury all year. The team's leading receivers were Jermaine Wiggins, Nate Burleson and Marcus Robinson. Yes, THAT Jermaine Wiggins, Nate Burleson and Marcus Robinson.

Well if that's your argument it is even more irrelevant than first surmised, comparing a failed veteran's best season with a rookie sensation is outright moot, in fact it's illogical

The short passing "critique" is absurd. I have posted about it 4 times in this thread

RG3 has thrown a high share of short passes, with 153 of his 205 completions (74.6 percent) thrown fewer than 10 yards. But he's just a tree in an NFL forest of QBs throwing short passes. Consider that Tom Brady, with a passer rating of 105.2, is throwing short at a far higher rate. Brady has thrown fewer than 10 yards on a whopping 222 of his 308 completions entering Week 13, or 81 percent, far ahead of Griffin. Matt Ryan, with perhaps the NFL's best downfield options in Julio Jones and Roddy White (as well as Tony Gonzalez), throws short 73 percent of the time, essentially the same as Griffin. Peyton Manning (74.1), Rodgers (73.4) and even Joe Flacco (70 percent) are all thriving on the short ball at a rate virtually the same as RG3.

Now correct my math if I'm wrong here.... but I believe 222 of 308 is closer to 72.1% than 81%.

The short passing "critique" is absurd. I have posted about it 4 times in this thread

Those stats you posted are absurd. I am not going to diminish what Griffin has done this year as a rookie. Looks good to me so far, but it is silly using completions as a way to determine if one QB is throwing short(under 10 yards) more often than another QB. That is a poor use of stats.

The better comparison is to use pass attempts. Compare how many pass attempts are thrown under 10 yards to the total number pass attempts for each QB. Griffin(66.2%) attempts a higher percentage of passes under 10 yards than Tom Brady(64.3%), Matt Ryan(61.7%), Peyton Manning(59.1%) or Aaron Rodgers(63.5%). Those guys just complete a higher percentage of those short passes than Griffin.

Right now on just the pass attempts under 10 yards the completion percentages for these QBs are 71.2%(Griffin), 75%(Brady), 74.7%(Ryan), 76.6%(Manning) and 73.8%(Rodgers).

Completing a higher percentage of those short passes is not the same thing as attempting more of those short passes. That is a poor usage of stats.

The better comparison is to use pass attempts. Compare how many pass attempts are thrown under 10 yards to the total number pass attempts for each QB. Griffin(66.2%) attempts a higher percentage of passes under 10 yards than Tom Brady(64.3%), Matt Ryan(61.7%), Peyton Manning(59.1%) or Aaron Rodgers(63.5%). Those guys just complete a higher percentage of those short passes than Griffin.

Thats within a margin of error, no? 66% to 64% for Brady? So essentially 2 percent more of his passes? That is a huge difference?

He’s already pretty special right? That wasn’t his finest performance as a Redskin, but he got the job done once again. Continues to amaze in what will surely go down as one of the greatest rookie years of all time.

2. Russell Wilson, QB, SEA (+23.1)

Lost in all the debate about RG3 and Luck is just how well Wilson has been playing. His late-game heroics against Chicago should change that. He’s currently our seventh ranked quarterback on the year.

3. Andrew Luck, QB, IND (+4.8)

I’m a little bored of all the talk of his winning record as the complete measure of a quarterback. It’s too simplistic a view to break down individual performance. You can spin it however you want, but Luck was terrible for most of the game against Detroit. Against better teams that won’t do.

Holy Cripes, just looked up RG3's splits ... 22% of his pass attempts are behind the LOS for the season!!!! 66% of his pass attempts have been 9 yards or less. Literally, almost 1 out of every 4 pass attempts is a screen pass or dump off.

Thats within a margin of error, no? 66% to 64% for Brady? So essentially 2 percent more of his passes? That is a huge difference?

I didn't say it was a huge difference. I said it was a better way to represent which QB throws more short passes than the stats you had previously provided.

Also, I am not certain it is within margin of error when one QB has many more overall pass attempts than another QB. Brady(460) has attempted 141.5% more passes than Griffin(325). You can't just extrapolate Griffin's pass attempts out and expect the percentages to remain the same, so that will impact the margin of error.

I didn't say it was a huge difference. I said it was a better way to represent which QB throws more short passes than the stats you had previously provided.

Also, I am not certain it is within margin of error when one QB has many more overall pass attempts than another QB. Brady(460) has attempted 141.5% more passes than Griffin(325). You can't just extrapolate Griffin's pass attempts out and expect the percentages to remain the same, so that will impact the margin of error.

So thusly Brady has thrown more and completed a higher percentage of short passes, which is typical of an offense with spread concepts.

Again, this is a silly canard. RG3 has been incredibly effective, to a Brady/Manningesque level this year from the pocket.

The fact that he has the added dimension of being able to run and a dominant running back in Alfred Morris has only made this offense better.

I would love it if every quarter was the dazzling show that it was in the 2nd quarter on Thanksgiving vs your overrated secondary with deep bombs and back of the shoulder passes. It simply hasn't had to be thus far because of the effective running game (like it was last night)

To minimize the impact of the offense when you compare the same types of passes to other passers (as PFF has done) is just plain silly

The pistol, similar to the shotgun in the '70s, is an evolution in the offensive game, which is why you see Seattle /San Fran and gasp even Indy running it from time to time. All those teams have QBs who can run and pass very well.

At one point the "forward pass" was considered a gimmick. Football changes and now you have QBs with the skill to not only run real fast but also throw the ball accurately and on time. RG3 simply has the most elite skillset with the passing, accuracy, intelligence and running. Kapernick will be another, as will Luck.

So thusly Brady has thrown more and completed a higher percentage of short passes, which is typical of an offense with spread concepts.

Again, this is a silly canard. RG3 has been incredibly effective, to a Brady/Manningesque level this year from the pocket.

The fact that he has the added dimension of being able to run and a dominant running back in Alfred Morris has only made this offense better.

I would love it if every quarter was the dazzling show that it was in the 2nd quarter on Thanksgiving vs your overrated secondary with deep bombs and back of the shoulder passes. It simply hasn't had to be thus far because of the effective running game (like it was last night)

To minimize the impact of the offense when you compare the same types of passes to other passers (as PFF has done) is just plain silly

The pistol, similar to the shotgun in the '70s, is an evolution in the offensive game, which is why you see Seattle /San Fran and gasp even Indy running it from time to time. All those teams have QBs who can run and pass very well.

And none of that has anything to do with what I posted. I just think the stat comparison that was used was a poor way to measure which QB throws more short passes. Plain and simple. I didn't say anything negative about Griffin and what he has accomplished. It is just a simple comparison. Griffin throws more short passes per attempt than the other QBs that were brought up in that misleading comparison. Not by a whole lot in some cases, but he does throw more. Those stat comparisons were false and misleading.

RG3 has been incredibly effective, to a Brady/Manningesque level this year from the pocket.

I disagree with this statement. Griffin has had a great rookie campaign. No doubt. I just can't put a QB that attempts 11 fewer passes per game than those two guys on the same plane. Part of what makes Brady and Manning great is they are asked to do a lot, which is why they attempt a large number of passes. The more passes you attempt, the more opportunities for bad things to happen and they have to overcome that. Griffin may get to that point during his career as more things are thrust upon him, but for now I don't think he has played at a Brady/Manningesque level. He has been great for what he has been asked to do, but he hasn't been asked to do what they do.

I hate the fact that we can't get splits better than 10 yards. Pretty sure there is a significance difference in degree of difficulty between attempting a 9 yard seem route in a tight window between multiple defenders and completing a bubble screen.

Griffin has had multiple games with less than 15 completions (he averages 18)... almost every game is under 20. He also averages 9 rushes... and has had games where he basically rushes as much as passes. Yes he only has a few ints, but remember he has about a billion fumbles the skins have just been lucky to recover them. Every big play he has is to the widest open receivers ever... that crap won't last. Is he smart enough and talented enough to overcome all of that? Yes, but the coaches need to change the way they use him. If not he WILL be Vick 2.0 (that will be totally on coaching though if it happens because he does have to poise and arm to be a pocket qb)

If Brady were attempting 50% or 45% I think it would make a difference to me

64% to 66% really doesn't. Essentially both are attempting 2/3 of their passes within 10 yards of the LOS

I agree it is close. Again I never said otherwise. Still, you keep claiming that the other comparison using completions is concrete evidence that Brady uses more short passes. Yet those percentages are also close.