QUESTIONS ON BORDER SECURITY NOT EASY TO ANSWER

Declaring success with border security is a challenge because it is unclear how many people make it past the existing security infrastructure, said Janice Kephart, national security fellow at the Center for Immigration Studies, which advocates limited legal immigration and stronger enforcement of immigration laws.

In a recent analysis, Kephart found that about 30 percent of unauthorized border-crossers evade security forces. For any protection measure to work, that number should be in the single digits, she said.

“The (Obama) administration is talking this talk about sending more resources to the border, but you have to look beyond that,” she said. “It was ramped up, but there is no (broader) policy behind it.”

In addition, some immigration experts said focusing largely on security along the border is a mistake. About 40 percent of the unauthorized immigrants in the U.S. had entered legally and then overstayed their visas.

Among grass-roots activists in San Diego County who support Obama’s immigration plan, the border has never been more difficult to penetrate. They said tying legalization to further security gains is a political tactic.

“Making the pathway to citizenship contingent on certification of a ‘secure border’ is deceptive and out of place, and will not restore integrity to families in need of real reform,” said Pedro Rios, director of the San Diego American Friends Service Committee. “All of the benchmarks for border enforcement presented in previous legislative proposals have been met, and not without serious humanitarian concerns.”

But advocates of the “border security first” approach said the border is still porous.

“If there is a vote to legalize, then that cannot occur without a closed border,” said Ted Hilton of the Taxpayer Revolution Committee in San Diego.

He also said border security needs to include a review of some policies that he sees as unfairly benefiting unauthorized immigrants.

That includes public schooling, child tax credits and automatic citizenship for children born in the United States, he said.

According to the eight-senator plan, deciding whether the border is secure will fall to a new commission made up of governors, attorneys general and local leaders in border states.

Part of that proposal is already under scrutiny.

The stipulation is a red flag that could leave millions of unauthorized immigrants in limbo, said Wayne Cornelius, director emeritus of the University of California San Diego’s Center for Comparative Immigration Studies.

“Who’s going to be on that commission will have bearing on whether they’re able to achieve consensus,” he said. “I’m concerned that the political moment that we’re in right now might pass before this grand new scheme could be implemented.”

Rios also said the commission plan is “misguided,” while Kephart predicted it would become overly political and staffed by those lacking experience in law enforcement.

One idea rarely discussed by political leaders is investing in trade as a way to increase security, said Eric G. Frost, co-director of the Homeland Security Graduate Program at San Diego State University.

Like numerous other immigration experts, he believes current levels of security are not only driven by the buildup of enforcement resources, but also by economic factors such as the dismal U.S. economy and an uptick in the Mexican economy.

“Security can be measured in trade, which is a good metric,” Frost said. “No trade equals terrible security, as you have closed down the economic well-being of the communities on both sides of the border.”