Release Detail

July 26, 2000 - Gore, Bush Locked In Tight Race In New Jersey,
Quinnipiac University Poll Finds;
Abortion Is A Key For Top Candidate, Not Running Mate

Vice President Al Gore and Texas Gov. George W. Bush are locked in a tight race
among New Jersey voters, with 46 percent for Gore and 41 percent for Bush, according to a
Quinnipiac University Poll released today.

The results are virtually unchanged from a June 28 poll by the independent Quinnipiac
University, when Gore edged Bush 45 - 40 percent.

If the Reform Party's Pat Buchanan and the Green Party's Ralph Nader are in the race,
Gore gets 42 percent to 38 percent for Bush, with 2 percent for Buchanan and 7 percent for
Nader.

From July 19 - 24, Quinnipiac University surveyed 910 New Jersey registered voters,
with a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percent.

"As the Vice President in a prosperous and contented America, Gore should be doing
much better than this. Now he will need to deliver a superb performance at the convention,"
said Quinnipiac University Political Science Professor Scott McLean.

"New Jersey voters are familiar with Bush and Gore, but many still have mixed
feelings about them. The reason voters seem eager to watch the conventions is that they
hope to figure out where the parties and candidates stand on the issues."

Gore's favorability among New Jersey voters is 39 - 34 percent, with 25 percent
mixed and 2 percent saying they haven't heard enough to form an opinion. This compares
with Gore's 33 - 33 percent favorability rating in the June 28 Quinnipiac University poll.

Bush's favorability is 35 - 36 percent, with 26 percent mixed and 3 percent saying
they haven't heard enough to form an opinion. He had a slightly negative 30 - 34 percent
favorability June 28.

Of the 73 percent of New Jersey voters who say they will watch at least some of the
Republican Convention next week, 57 percent say they are most interested in speeches about
where the party stands on major issues.

Of the 67 percent of voters who say they will watch the Democratic Convention next
month, 62 percent say they also are most interested in speeches about major issues.

Only 26 percent of New Jersey voters want to see the Supreme Court`s Roe v. Wade
decision legalizing abortion overturned, while 68 percent do not want it reversed.

It is very important that a presidential candidate share their opinion on abortion,
according to 40 percent of New Jersey voters, while 39 percent say it is somewhat important
and 20 percent say it is not important at all. Those who say a candidate's stand on abortion
is very important support Gore 51 - 29 percent.

If Bush had chosen a Vice Presidential candidate who supports legalized abortion, 15
percent of voters would be more likely to vote Republican, while 15 percent would be less
likely and 66 percent say it would make no difference in how they vote.

"If Bush had selected a pro-choice running mate, it would not have made a difference
in New Jersey, where people look at the presidential candidate's abortion position, not at
number two. Besides, he would likely lose one Republican for every independent he might
win over - so why should he gamble with his base and gain no advantage?" Dr. McLean
said.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, conducts public
opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut as a public service and for
research.

2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Clinton is handling
his job as President?

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Approve 63% 30% 87% 64% 59% 66%

Disapprove 33 66 10 31 37 29

DK/NA 4 3 3 6 4 5

10. How much attention have you been paying to the election campaign
for President -- a lot, some, only a little, or none at all?

16. If the election for President were being held today and the
candidates were Al Gore the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican,
Pat Buchanan the Reform Party candidate and Ralph Nader the Green
Party candidate for whom would you vote?

Speeches about where the
party stands on major
national issues 57 46 58 64 52 62

DK/NA 5 2 7 5 6 4

20. As you may know the Democratic National Convention will meet in
Los Angeles August 14th to the 17th. Do you think you will watch any
of the television coverage of the convention?

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Yes 67% 52% 77% 69% 65% 69%

No 31 47 20 30 34 28

DK/NA 2 1 3 1 1 3

21. (If will watch convention) Which part of the convention are you most
interested in seeing?

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

The nomination acceptance
speech by Al Gore 18% 20% 19% 15% 21% 15%

Biographies of Al Gore
and his running mate 7 4 8 7 8 6

Speeches by the
major party leaders 9 13 10 7 10 9

Speeches about where the
party stands on major
national issues? 62 60 58 67 58 66

DK/NA 4 3 5 3 3 4

22. In its 1973 Roe v. Wade decision the Supreme Court ruled that states
cannot place restrictions on a woman's right to an abortion during the
first 3 months of pregnancy. Would you like to see this ruling overturned
or not?

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Yes/Overturned 26% 38% 18% 25% 29% 23%

No/Not overturned 68 56 77 68 66 70

DK/NA 6 6 5 6 6 6

23. How important is it to you that the Presidential candidate you vote
for shares your views on the issue of abortion - very important, somewhat
important, or not important at all?

Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Very important 40% 27% 54% 35% 30% 49%

Smwht important 39 45 33 41 44 34

Not important at all 20 26 12 23 25 15

DK/NA 1 1 1 1 - 1

24. If George W. Bush chooses a Vice Presidential candidate who supports
legalized abortion, would you be more likely to vote for him, less likely,
or wouldn't it make a difference?