This is a discussion on [200NL 6Max] I bluff the river with a missed draw. within the online poker forums, in the Cash Game Hand Analysis section; Preflop call is not standard. I always call with JTs, but J9s is a little marginal. Still, he did not c-bet very often (and his

Preflop call is not standard. I always call with JTs, but J9s is a little marginal. Still, he did not c-bet very often (and his double-barreling frequency was also low) so I decided to look at a flop with a speculative hand, because I will often get to see the turn as well.

Villain is 39/18, steals 36 (so he's positionally aware), c-bets 37% with a WTSD of 32%. Sample isn't huge; about 350 hands. I had a note on him that he plays draws passively.

I think Belgo coined the "FP Theorem" recently, after I said that you should basically always fire a second barrel with a strong draw on the turn because your fold equity is so great. That's still true, but doesn't apply here, because he called a raise OOP on the flop and the board actually made any made hand of mine even less likely. So I decide to let my outs materialize, unsurprisingly miss, but find a new hand I can represent. So I go for it.

Works often enough to be worth it?

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I could believe you had pocket 5's I suppose. Its not so important that its believable that you had 55/Ac8c/Ac5c or whatever, but that his range is scared of the 8 & that the 8 didn't make him a hand that will call another bet.

I suppose its fine to bet the 8, but I think I'm down with FP theorum that betting the turn is goot.

#3

16th January 2009, 11:36 PM

c9h13no3 [8,362]

Quote:

steals 36 (so he's positionally aware), c-bets 37%

The more I think about this hand, the more I don't like bluffing the river. His range includes a lot of hands that hit this board if he's stealing 36%, and he's only c-betting his real hands. I think floating might be better than bluff raising this flop, since he's likely to have hit the board.

As far as the river bet, meht, still on the fence, but it can't be that bad.

#4

16th January 2009, 11:50 PM

zachvac [7,835]

Online Poker at: Pokerstars

Game: NL Hold 'em

re: Poker & [200NL 6Max] I bluff the river with a missed draw.

45/55 are the only hands that really hit the river. The general rule I think is that when an obvious draw misses you're more likely to be looked up. Raising flop and checking turn looks a lot like a draw or air. I think this is an overpair a lot of the time and that he's calling a good amount of the time on this river. Sure the board looks scary but I just don't see what you rep here. Made straight bets turn, as does 56. You just have a pretty narrow value range and I think you're going to be looked up pretty light here. Certainly not horrible to bet here but I think I like a check here.

#5

17th January 2009, 6:50 PM

widowmaker89 [514]

Poker at: Full Tilt

Game: Holdem

I dont really like it, you are repping a pretty small range here(6 55 hands and maybe some 45 hands but unless you are flatting a shit ton preflop that should be discounted) and the only part of his range I would think you can get off this is higher flush draws. I guess it all depends on if we think villian can let go of 7x or overpairs and I dont think we can.

Also, I think im liking a raise here preflop if we want to play this hand. This obviously is very villian dependant but from what I can tell I would think that would be a more profitable option.

I dont really like it, you are repping a pretty small range here(6 55 hands and maybe some 45 hands but unless you are flatting a shit ton preflop that should be discounted) and the only part of his range I would think you can get off this is higher flush draws. I guess it all depends on if we think villian can let go of 7x or overpairs and I dont think we can.

Also, I think im liking a raise here preflop if we want to play this hand. This obviously is very villian dependant but from what I can tell I would think that would be a more profitable option.

Villain doesn't fold to 3bets often enough to make it profitable (was something like 30%), so that's not really an option. Folding preflop is of course alright.

Now, I can have more than just 55. I'm never playing a set this way, this much is true, but AA and KK aren't impossible (although admittedly unlikely), but this would probably be exactly the line I'd take with 88-TT. I definitely think there's value in betting 99 on this river versus a loose opponent.

I'm not trying to get him to fold pocket queens, here. I'm trying to get him to fold AK/AQ/AJ/KQ or whatever other overcard hands he could have peeled the flop with. Given that he didn't reraise the flop, and didn't bet the river after I checked back the turn, I feel that that part of his range (and perhaps 22-33) is more heavily weighted, and that I'll get him to fold the requisite 40% of the time. And maybe just once in a blue moon he'll be able to laydown an overpair here, too. But that's not the hands I'm aiming my bluff at.

A good counter argument might be "why didn't you bet the turn if you want him to fold overcards" and the answer is simply that I have more information now than I did on the turn. When he calls my flop raise OOP, his range looks strong. When he doesn't bet the river after I check back the turn, his range is considerably weaker, and I feel like I have to at least take a stab at it, and I'm careful to size my bet the same way I would if I were going for value.

#7

19th January 2009, 11:21 PM

Chris_TC [925]

Poker at: Pokerstars

Game: Moniez

I much prefer a call on the flop. His c-bet percentage is quite small, so when he bets this board he's unlikely to let go of his hand against a raise.
After raising the flop, I think checking this turn is good. If he can call the flop raise he can probably call a bet on that turn card.

The river card is interesting. A strong player would realize that you're only repping 75, and maybe 45 and 55. You'd continue betting the turn with 44, 77, 67, 46, 65, 35 and 85. Most of these hands aren't even in your preflop calling range I suppose.
So I'd expect a good player to look you up a ton on that river. I assume that your opponent isn't too good, but you're laying him a decent price to call there. I'd go brute force and overbet 1.5x.

#8

21st January 2009, 1:53 AM

joos [275]

Online Poker at: poker stars

Game: holdem

re: Poker & [200NL 6Max] I bluff the river with a missed draw.

I think I 3b pre, even though i like raising my draws on the flop, i think i call this flop give his low c-bet and texture of this board. I dont think he is betting too much of his complete air