The Toronto Blue Jays had already made it quite clear that awesome prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was not going to make the club out of spring training, using carefully worded and occasionally silly statements that made little sense in reality so they could avoid stating that the real reason was service time. As a result, the weekend news that the talented slugger will miss at least three weeks with an oblique strain should not drastically affect his draft day value. If you think Guerrero is going to be an immediate star -- like, say, 99 percent of us do -- then be prepared to spend a top-50 selection on the Hall of Famer's son.

The injury could put a modest dent in expected big league playing time, however, and that we cannot ignore. ESPN Fantasy originally projected 550 plate appearances for Guerrero, and it's fair to shed another 50 off that in case the promotion slips into May, but make no mistake, Guerrero will hit and the Blue Jays will promote him sooner rather than later. A Grade 1 oblique strain is the least serious and offers a three-week timetable, but overall, it might not tamper with Guerrero's Triple-A at-bats so much. We might still see him facing the Athletics and Angels in April, which is why I will dock him perhaps a round in my rankings but not more. This is not a big deal.

One could easily make the case that Guerrero is currently Toronto's best player, even sans a big league plate appearance, but a few weeks of Triple-A playing time -- well, a few weeks of avoiding big league service time -- was pending in order to add another year of club control much later. Blame the organization all you like, but everyone does it because baseball's arcane system permits it.

However, missing two weeks is minor considering the season is six months. Kris Bryant carried the Chicago Cubs and fantasy managers in 2015. I think Guerrero's major league debut would have been around April 15. Now it probably comes a few weeks later. Do not overthink this, unless you think durability is going to be an issue. After all, Guerrero missed time in the minors last season with a knee injury.

Those in dynasty/keeper leagues should ignore the Guerrero injury for value purposes. His stardom seems guaranteed, even if he plays less than expected this season. In a redraft format, sure, he will not be debuting in the majors on April 15. It might not even be in April. Just do not let him slip too far in your draft, because he's going to hit a lot.

Frankly, the more serious injury suffered by a top prospect this weekend was to Los Angeles Angels outfielder Jo Adell, who sprained an ankle and strained a hamstring in Sunday's game. Adell is not on the immediate radar for fantasy managers because he had barely played in Double-A and was thus unlikely to debut in the majors this season, at least until September. The toolsy Adell could miss perhaps three months, and this curtails development time, but he remains a dynasty league gem, so do not waver in long-term-thinking formats.

Other news

Good for outfielder Adam Jones in finding one-year work with the Arizona Diamondbacks, but it sure seems like many are missing the obvious point here: Jones was barely replacement player level for the 2018 Baltimore Orioles, offering a 0.2 bWAR and 0.5 fWAR. That is not good. In relative comparison, he looked better for fantasy managers, ranking as the No. 45 outfielder on the Player Rater, thanks mostly to a safe .281 batting average over myriad at-bats, with few walks. The 15 home runs and 7 stolen bases are hardly special. Jones is simply not a valuable player in real life or fantasy.

In addition, Jones' work in center field was really below average, which is why Arizona is an odd fit, even with raw Ketel Marte learning the position. The corner outfield spots are set, though durability is hardly a guarantee with Steven Souza Jr. Marte can play second base and push Wilmer Flores to first base or the bench, in theory, but it would be a shame if the promising Marte loses playing time due to this popular signing. Jones is one of the nicest fellows around, but all the incessant whining about him deserving X amount of money and playing time needs context; there were 344 players with a better bWAR in 2018. Jones is 33. He is not likely to improve. Make Jones your fifth fantasy outfielder at best.

Pittsburgh Pirates third baseman Jung Ho Kang has returned to major league baseball after time spent away due to concerning off-field issues. Kang hit his fourth spring home run on Sunday and it looks like he could overtake average Colin Moran as a starter. Kang hit 36 home runs over 837 plate appearances for the 2015-16 Pirates, and on a team lacking power and not getting it with Moran, this seems like an obvious decision.

Seattle Mariners third baseman Kyle Seager hurt his left wrist on a diving defensive play Friday and could miss significant time. Seager is outside the top 20 at his position in ESPN average live drafts, and if the diagnosis costs him April, feel free to look elsewhere. Seager hit .222 last season. The Mariners could move Ryon Healy to third base, but you can do better in a standard mixed format.

Houston Astros second baseman Jose Altuve is mildly scaring fantasy managers as he misses game after game with side soreness, but it's only March 11 and the team says this is not a big deal. Until it is. For now, if you think Altuve is a borderline first-round pick, do not alter that. But if we're still discussing this in one week, then you must.
]]>Fantasy Sports ForumHache Manhttp://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1134327What does the perfect fantasy baseball draft look like?http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1134326&goto=newpost
Tue, 12 Mar 2019 20:49:57 GMT*What does the perfect fantasy baseball draft look like?*
Eric Karabell
ESPN PLUS ($...What does the perfect fantasy baseball draft look like?

Eric Karabell
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)

We would all love to be able to draft Los Angeles Angels outfielder Mike Troutor Boston Red Sox outfielder Mookie Betts. These are the top players in fantasy baseball and the guessing game for many starts at pick No. 3. I generally want to select first or last, narrow down the list of potential picks to three or four and then, choose two of them in quick fashion. It is just my thing. Picking last in the first round means no Trout or Betts, of course, but also, in theory, it does mean two of the top 11 players are yours, or for 12-team formats, two of the top 13. With no obvious first-round hierarchy after the big two stars, that works for me.

The annual "Perfect Draft" article usually has me choosing in the middle of each round, but since I prefer picking at the end, let us shift that direction. We can change the rules! We use ESPN ADP as our guide, and while no draft can really be perfect, the intention is clear. We want to construct a balanced squad with no obvious, statistical weakness, mixing in players young and old, durable and not so much, aiming for the potential to compete for the top in each of the statistical categories. It is hardly impossible. ESPN standard is 10 teams and points, but for these purposes, we shall go with a roto format.

Round 1-2 turn

Trea Turner, SS, Washington NationalsAlex Bregman, SS/3B, Houston AstrosTurner ranks better on all our individual lists, but starting pitchers Chris Saleand Jacob deGrom have moved up and pushed him to No. 10 in latest ADP. Turner is awesome, and it is not merely the stolen bases. He hits for average, scores runs and there is ample power. It might seem odd to choose another shortstop-eligible but Bregman is another five-category contributor and multi-eligibility is never a bad thing. People get hurt. Speaking of, if being able to select Turner at No. 10 seems ridiculous to you, then shift to Cleveland Indiansshortstop Francisco Lindor, an acknowledged top-5 choice that has fallen outside the top 10 because of a calf injury. Perhaps he misses the first week or two, and perhaps he does not steal many bases early on, but I would be fine with him at this turn, too. Rostering Turner means that fewer stolen bases will need securing later on.

Round 3-4 turn

Andrew Benintendi, OF, Boston Red SoxTrevor Bauer, SP, Cleveland IndiansI rank the former considerably better than this slot, again due to the five-category goodness. This would not be an awesome start to this team for sheer power, but these three hitters are young and terrific. I will accrue ample power. Bauer might be a bit of a reach at pick No. 31 but I do enjoy securing an ace and high-end starting pitching is gold in ADP. Remember, picking consecutively means it will be a while before you pick again, so acting sooner on a player that fits your team needs is OK. I do not count many aces.

Round 5-6 turn

Nicholas Castellanos, OF, Detroit TigersEugenio Suarez, 3B, Cincinnati RedsHere comes some power! Castellanos has yet to deliver his first 30-homer, 100-RBI campaign, but he has been close, and two seasons of 157 games is attractive. Suarez comes off a 30-100 season, and while I prefer teammate Joey Votto in points leagues, and think his power comes back to normal levels, there are no such questions across the Cincinnati diamond. I thought about Arizona ace Zack Greinke here, a big K option, but I cannot pass up safe power. I did not consider a closer.

Round 7-8 turn

Eddie Rosario, OF, Minnesota TwinsJameson Taillon, SP, Pittsburgh PiratesRosario goes at least a round earlier in my rankings, so I consider him a steal at pick No. 70. I also considered his teammate Nelson Cruz, a DH-only with safe power. Rosario is younger, and that matters, but I do not have any issue "clogging" the DH spot early. It is not clogging if you get 35 home runs. Taillon is a not quite a 200-strikeout option, unless he really makes strides, but his other numbers work and he can still improve.

Round 9-10 turn

Robinson Cano, 2B, New York MetsTravis Shaw, 2B/3B, Milwaukee BrewersI can find middle infield sleepers with question marks later on, but why bother if these fellows remain on the board? Cano can still hit; last year extrapolated to a full season is .303-20-100. Do not expect him to fall apart in the National League. This is not a keeper league. Shaw boasts consecutive seasons of 30-plus home runs, and I fail to see why he cannot make it three in a row. Multi-eligibility is always a plus, too, and that is why Shaw gets my nod over Mike Moustakas, who could/should also add the same second base eligibility. I still do not regret passing on saves, but by taking more bats, I have passed on good starters like Zack Wheeler and Miles Mikolas, the latter just misses being my Round 11 pick.

Round 11-12 turn

Masahiro Tanaka, SP, New York YankeesCharlie Morton, SP, Tampa Bay RaysThese right-handers combined for 57 starts a season ago, while striking out more than a hitter per inning each and protecting WHIP. Hey, if there were no concerns about injury, they would not be available this late. Nothing against Colorado's German Marquez, who was phenomenal considering his circumstances, but Tanaka and Morton are safer. By the way, I decided to leave out statistical lightning rod Adalberto Mondesi of the Kansas City Royals, because his ADP continues to rise, and I have him ranked considerably better than this. However, if you see Mondesi on the board after the 10th round, by all means go and get him. Yes, he might not hit above .250, but otherwise he could look, for fantasy purposes, a lot like Turner.

Round 13-14 turn

Jose Leclerc, RP, Texas RangersIan Desmond, 1B/OF, Colorado RockiesLeclerc sure seems like an underrated saves option in ADP -- he comes off a dominant season, the Rangers committed long-term and he should double his saves total. Frankly, he should be going a few rounds prior to this. Desmond is different, of course, but still, being able to find 20-homer, 20-steal options -- which he has achieved five of the past seven seasons -- this late are unusual. Nobody enjoys the batting average, but the Rockies are going to play him regularly, and while we can debate the merits of that intention, all we care about are the numbers.

Round 15-16 turn

Ken Giles, RP, Toronto Blue JaysMiguel Cabrera, 1B, Detroit TigersI like quite a few of the players in this range of picks, actually. I am passing up my big starting pitcher sleeper (Shane Bieber) and several young hitters with upside (Rafael Devers, Yoan Moncada) to secure a second safe closer and an old first baseman that sure looks like he is going to bounce back, health permitting. I am not concerned about Giles. The role is his and he misses plenty of bats. It beats relying on Wade Davis or Cody Allen. Cabrera could be the new Nelson Cruz, with a bit less power and a .300 batting average.

Round 17-18 turn

Byron Buxton, OF, Minnesota TwinsRyan Braun, OF, Milwaukee BrewersThink about how much earlier one had to pounce to secure these players a year ago, and then ask yourself, what really changed? Buxton went in Round 7. Braun was a bit later. I neither promise health or that either returns to statistical prominence, but Buxton is certainly capable of his 2017 stats, when he hit .253 with 16 home runs and 29 steals. Braun misses many games these days, but we cannot overlook the 37 home runs and 23 steals over the past two truncated seasons. This fantasy team is now set on offense except at catcher, which we secure at the very end, and it competes in each category, including batting average. Buxton/Braun are not winning batting titles, but there are potential .300 hitters here, including Cabrera, Cano, Bregman and others.

Round 19-20 turn

Collin McHugh, RP, Houston AstrosTyler Glasnow, SP, Tampa Bay RaysThe former slides right back into the rotation after a year in relief, while the latter took off after the trade from Pittsburgh and a guarantee of starting. McHugh was a reliable starter for several seasons before team depth forced him into a relief role, which he starred in, perhaps thanks to a combination of higher velocity and a better slider. Glasnow is young and walks are a problem, but he misses bats. Whether he can go deeper into games to win them is a mild concern, but at this point of a draft, no upside choices are bad ones.

Round 21-22 turn

Ross Stripling, SP/RP, Los Angeles DodgersArchie Bradley, RP, Arizona DiamondbacksStripling has pitched well in multiple roles the past two seasons, and selecting him at all is under the presumption Clayton Kershaw misses time with injury, which seems like a safe one at this point. Stripling's durability is far from safe, but he was 8-2 with a 2.08 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 10.2 K/9 at the All-Star break last season. That will work. With Bradley, it is about the saves. I like to leave a 10-team draft with three strikeout closers. It will not be difficult to find saves during the season. If not Bradley at this spot, then Jordan Hicks serves a similar purpose, though likely with fewer saves.

Round 23-24 turn

Jhoulys Chacin, SP, Milwaukee BrewersRamon Laureano, OF, Oakland AthleticsChacin finished last season as the No. 27 starting pitcher on the Player Rater, boasting consecutive seasons of durability (67 starts) and near-identical peripheral numbers. He is not an ace, nor a big strikeout option, but I like to have a starter or two on the bench to plug in whenever, and Chacin performs for a good club and still gets no respect. Laureano looks like a potential 20-homer, 20-steal option, and this late in a draft, that is a bargain, especially with several outfielders likely to miss time at some point.

Someone has to catch the baseball and it seems to make perfect sense, at this point, to grab a high-upside option rather than a boring veteran like Tucker Barnhart or Jonathan Lucroy (ah, once upon a time). Mejia is one of the better upside choices in that regard. We know he can hit, and he has boasted impressive power the past few weeks. We think the Padres intend for him to catch long-term. If it is not going well in mid-April, perhaps just move on to whomever is playing well and stream the position. Welington Castillo, Austin Barnes and one of the Nationals works for me as well.
]]>Fantasy Sports ForumHache Manhttp://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1134326http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1134161&goto=newpost
Sun, 10 Mar 2019 13:22:24 GMTWho's the greatest fantasy hoops legend among LeBron, MJ and Kobe?

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LeBron James entered Wednesday's game with 32,280 career points, only 12 behind Michael Jordan for fourth on the all-time list, and passed him in the first half. Kobe Bryant is next up on that list at No. 3 with 33,643 career points. This historic time period gives us an excellent reason to compare three of the elite players in fantasy and NBA history.

As LeBron surpasses Jordan and sets his sights on Kobe on the scoring list, how does LeBron's career -- in fantasy and NBA -- stack up against against MJ and Kobe?

Career fantasy/box score contributions

There are a lot of interesting parallels between fantasy basketball and what most people think of when they hear "advanced stats."

The NBA's early steps into data ball involved composite stats like John Hollinger's player efficiency rating (PER), which combined contributions from box score stats (e.g., points, rebounds, assists, blocks, steals, turnovers, etc.) and shooting efficiency stats (e.g., FG%, FT%, 3FG%) to come up with a single figure to estimate how good a player is.

While PER is the most popular, there are many variants of this approach, including Kevin Pelton's wins above replacement player (WARP), Dave Berri's wins produced (WP) and several that are featured on Basketball-Reference, such as win shares (WS), box score plus-minus (BPM) and value over replacement player (VORP).

These same categories are used to score fantasy basketball as well, and though the calculations are different, one would generally expect PER and the points systems used in fantasy basketball to tell roughly similar stories.

Here is a quick look at how LeBron compares to MJ and Kobe over their careers in two of these measures.

MJ, Kobe, LeBron Regular Seasons

PLAYER

MINUTES

PER

WS

Michael Jordan

41,011

27.9

214.0

Kobe Bryant

46,774

23.2

173.1

LeBron James

44,939

27.6

225.8

MJ, Kobe, LeBron Postseasons

PLAYER

MINUTES

PER

WS

Michael Jordan

7,474

28.6

39.8

Kobe Bryant

8,641

22.4

28.3

LeBron James

10,049

28.3

51.0

Note: Kobe has played the most regular-season minutes of the three and the second-most playoff minutes, and Jordan played the least amount of minutes in both time periods.

Second note: PER is a per-possession stat, which means longevity doesn't factor in, while win shares (WS) is an additive stat, which means that longevity improves the score.

With those things said, it is clear that LeBron and Jordan are far ahead of Kobe in composite box score stats and arguably fantasy basketball value for their careers. Jordan and LeBron are competitive in per-possession stats, whereas LeBron's longevity gives him the edge in progressive stats.

This story matches completely with what Pelton wrote when comparing LeBron and Jordan this summer: The comparison is very close, but LeBron wins when longevity is factored.

It should also be noted the same relationships exist in the playoffs as in the regular season, which debunks any hot take that Jordan distances himself from LeBron and/or that Kobe could close the gap on them based on postseason play.

Single-season fantasy/box score contributions

Of course, those aforementioned stats refer to career values, while fantasy basketball is played one season at a time. Let's pin it down to single seasons, two for each player: their best statistical season and their best championship campaign during their late-prime years.

All three had their best statistical seasons during campaigns earlier in their careers when they didn't have the greatest supporting casts. Then, on the flip side, all three won championships in Years 12 or 13 of their respective careers, when they had more help carrying the load.

Let's pin down their box score contributions in each of those two single-season situations, again in both the regular season and the playoffs (standard fantasy basketball leagues don't use the NBA postseason, but it is still useful to evaluate how these players performed during the postseason), and calculate their fantasy points (FP) using ESPN Fantasy's standard scoring system:

MJ, Kobe, LeBron Stats For Peak Statistical Campaign

PLAYER

YEAR

REG PER

REG FP

PO PER

PO FP

Michael Jordan

1987-88

31.7

35

28.4

34.2

Kobe Bryant

2005-06

28

27.8

19.9

24.1

LeBron James

2015-16

31.7

30.7

37.4

37

MJ, Kobe, LeBron Stats For Best Title Campaign In Late Prime Years

PLAYER

YEAR

REG PER

REG FP

PO PER

PO FP

Michael Jordan

1995-96

29.4

28.9

26.7

25.4

Kobe Bryant

2008-09

24.4

24.5

26.8

27.5

LeBron James

2015-16

27.5

27.5

30

31.9

As expected, the single-season fantasy points reflect what we saw in the career box score advanced stats comparison: The fantasy scores roughly tracked via a composite metric like PER, with Jordan and LeBron putting up the best marks and Kobe a ways back.

Interestingly, for these chosen seasons, Jordan had the best regular-season fantasy points, but it was LeBron who put up the best fantasy scores in the playoffs.

As a bottom line, for their given eras, prime Jordan and prime LeBron were both consistently the No. 1 overall fantasy prospect in a given season, and Kobe was generally more in the top 4-8 range per season. And if all three were in the same draft, the battle for top pick would come down to a razor-thin margin between LeBron and Jordan that could vary, based on things like position eligibility and position scarcity in a given season. And again Kobe would be several picks down the list.

Winning NBA championships: the plus-minus story

When it comes down to determining who was really the best player, most people want to move beyond fantasy basketball and the so-called advanced box score stats. Players can put up empty numbers to manipulate the box scores, stat padding on poor teams or unimportant situations. Plus, the math manipulation of the raw box score stats to produce the composites is often impenetrable and nonintuitive.

Thus, my favorite metrics for comparing players are the so-called impact stats that were developed entirely to quantify how much an individual contributes to winning.

Raw plus-minus is, at base, a measure of how the team does when a player is on the court. By also measuring the plus-minus of the team with the player off the court, a raw estimate of the player's value can start to be formed. From there, if the lineup data is available, one can do math called regressions to better isolate the individual player's impact from his teammates and opponents, factoring in elements like playoffs and crunch time to really dig into a player's actual value toward winning an NBA game.

Unlike the box score stats, plus-minus stats result in tangible estimates of individual impact on winning.

Sign me up.

The real-plus-minus (RPM) stat on ESPN is a state-of-the-art plus-minus metric that uses regression across thousands of different lineups in the NBA in a given season to estimate how much each individual player in the league contributed to changes in their team's scoring margins. Unfortunately for this comparison, RPM data is available dating only to 2000, so it misses Jordan's entire Chicago Bulls career.

Thankfully, due to Philadelphia 76ers statistician Harvey Pollack and NBA.com, we do have raw plus-minus numbers for the NBA regular season starting with the 1993-94 season and for the playoffs starting with the 1996-97 season. This is a rougher, noisier impact approach, but it does tell a good bit of the story. And since this time window captures the post-baseball part of Jordan's career, which includes two MVPs and three championship rings, it allows our comp to continue.

Let's compare the regular season and playoffs on-court/off-court plus-minus scores for Jordan from 1996-97 through 1997-98 (no playoff plus-minus for 1995-96), Kobe from 2008-09 through 2009-10, and LeBron from 2015-16 through 2016-17. All three windows capture these players during their early 30s, playing at an MVP level while leading their respective teams to NBA finals appearances in both seasons:

MJ, Kobe, LeBron Plus-Minus For Key Campaign

PLAYER

YEAR

REG MIN

REG ON/OFF PLUS-MINUS

PO MIN

PO ON/OFF PLUS-MINUS

Michael Jordan

1997-98

6839

10.0

1676

20.1

Kobe Bryant

2009-10

5795

11.7

1863

10.0

LeBron James

2016-17

5503

16.8

1566

25.7

LeBron measured out with the highest on-court/off-court plus-minus during these two campaigns, for both the regular season and the playoffs. During the regular season, the Cavaliers were 16.8 points better per 100 possessions with him on the court as opposed to on the bench. In the playoffs, that number went up to 25.7 points better per 100 possessions.

While Jordan's regular season on/off plus-minus score was lower than Kobe's during the seasons considered, there is some context to consider:

During the 1995-96 season, Jordan's regular season on/off plus-minus was plus-15.2 points per 100 possessions, with a mark of plus-16.7 on-court and plus-1.5 with Jordan on the bench. That differential of plus-15.2 for Jordan was higher than any mark in Kobe's career (Kobe's career best was plus-12.5 in 2005-06).

The Bulls were 20.1 points better per 100 possessions with Jordan on the court than off during the 1997 and 1998 playoffs. While postseason on/off plus-minus can be strongly influenced by the small "off-court" time periods of star players, it should be noted that during the 22 seasons of playoff plus-minus data that is publicly available, the only players to produce multiyear playoff on/off plus-minus scores of at least 20.0 points per 100 possessions during multiseason samples including a championship are :Tim Duncan (2001-03), Shaquille O'Neal (2000-04), Kevin Garnett (2002-08) and LeBron James, twice (2007-10, 2016-17)

Thus, Jordan's two-year playoff plus-minus run during the last two postseasons of his career already measure out as mega-elite, with a reasonable likelihood that during his prime seasons, Jordan was probably performing even better. Kobe's single-playoff career-best in this measure is "only" 14.2 during at least a conference finals run, back in 2001.

So who's the best among LeBron, MJ and Kobe?

LeBron James and Michael Jordan have statistical footprints that are very comparable across their careers to date, with each having some small advantages and disadvantages against the other.

Whether starting a fantasy squad or an NBA team, LeBron vs. MJ would be a very difficult decision. Both distance themselves against the Black Mamba. And neither of the two legends would have been any more likely to lead this season's Lakers to the playoffs than King James has been able to do.

Put it together, and on this historic night when LeBron passed MJ and got one step closer to Kobe on the all-time scoring list, LeBron can still hold his head high with respect to the two legendary wings against whom he is most often compared.
]]>Fantasy Sports ForumHache Manhttp://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1134161Early- and late-round draft bargainshttp://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1133994&goto=newpost
Thu, 07 Mar 2019 21:25:19 GMTEarly- and late-round draft bargainsEric Karabell
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Houston Astros...Early- and late-round draft bargains

Eric Karabell
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)

Houston Astros infielder Alex Bregman led my "Plant My Flag" article last season, but as a coveted selection in the early rounds coming off a breakout sophomore campaign, there would not be many chances to get him in a draft. Bregman went in Round 4 much of the time, and that meant if you wanted him, and were truly sure he would break out statistically even further, you had to reach a bit. In the end, Bregman got even better; he finished No. 26 on the Player Rater.

In hindsight, it seems wiser this season to highlight more players to get later in drafts, and more inexpensively in auctions. Oh, I still heart plenty of players in the early rounds that I am willing to reach a bit for, like Bregman last season. They are on the list below as well. Ultimately, the true test of which players I like more than most tends to come from the drafts/auctions in which I have already competed, and how I react with seconds to decide. Whom do I keep getting? It is easy to proclaim you would reach for -- or target -- a certain player, but until you must decide, you never know.

Top 100 overall hitters (ESPN ADP order, rotisserie scoring)

Alex Bregman, SS/3B, Houston Astros: Well, I have him firmly entrenched in Round 1, thinking the power can still rise and he will still run, and I see others do not. So there!

Kris Bryant, 3B/OF, Chicago Cubs: What changed from a year ago when he was a borderline first-round pick? He hurt his shoulder. Now it is fine. Ridiculous overreacting by so many here.

Nelson Cruz, DH, Minnesota Twins: OK, so 37 is a minor problem. Wait, the number 37 also is how many home runs he hit in 2018? Yep, and he has averaged 41 blasts with 104 RBI the past five seasons? So underrated. Do not worry about "clogging" your utility spot with 37 home runs.

Scooter Gennett, 2B, Cincinnati Reds: Apparently his 2017 season was not a fluke after all. Good for you for investing. He is not such a bargain now, but he is a safe one.

Later-round hitters

Rafael Devers, 3B, Boston Red Sox: Devers hit 21 home runs in his age-21 season. I think he will hit 30 in a season before his 25th birthday -- perhaps before his 23rd birthday. Get him in keeper formats before it is too late.

Adalberto Mondesi, SS, Kansas City Royals: I think someone in each league will reach earlier than I do, but let us just say that while acknowledging the batting average could be a problem, Mondesi makes my top 100 for the steals alone. He should make yours.

Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Detroit Tigers: Watching him in the March games has convinced me he can still hit .300 and provide more than 20 home runs. I cannot claim he stays healthy for six months, but if it is Round 17 and he is coldly sitting there, sure.

ls: He is in my top 100, but his ADP is foolishly low. There are not many players likely to steal 30-plus bases, with some pop and batting average. Robles will.

Harrison Bader, OF, St. Louis Cardinals: Some concerns about his upside against right-handed pitching, but we have him projected for 16 home runs and 16 steals, kind of like Andrew Benintendi-lite. There really are not many of those fellows, especially in Round 17.

Asdrubal Cabrera, 2B/SS/3B, Texas Rangers: I have grown to appreciate this well-traveled infielder with multi-eligibility who has averaged .274 and 20 home runs the past three seasons. It works, late in a draft.

Paul DeJong, SS, St. Louis Cardinals: He hit .285 with 25 home runs in 108 games as a rookie. Then he got hurt last season. I still see a 30-homer season pending soon.

Jake Bauers, 1B/OF, Cleveland Indians: The Rays do not make many mistakes with young, affordable players, so that has me a bit concerned, but the Indians might lead him off against right-handed pitching. I think something good is pending.

Byron Buxton, OF, Minnesota Twins: In the first 10 rounds, no. Not a chance for me. However, if he is sitting there in the 15th round, I pounce. All the upside from March 2018 remains and again, there simply are not enough stolen bases out there.

Tyler White, 1B, Houston Astros: I liked him, in retrospect a bit too much, when he was first promoted to the majors and he did not hit. White hit last year, though. I am surprised so many assume the Astros upgrade their DH spot. White is capable of hitting .300 with 20-plus home runs.

Jesse Winker, OF, Cincinnati Reds: So is this fellow, and he leads off against right-handers.

Ramon Laureano, OF, Oakland Athletics: As with Bader, he is projected for a healthy number of home runs and steals -- not great, but enough -- and remains a bargain in the second half of a draft.

Domingo Santana, OF, Seattle Mariners: I am not saying he returns to the 2017 numbers when he hit .278 with 30 home runs and stole 15 bases, but I am also not not saying it. Santana is 26 and already achieved this. He can do so again as your fifth outfielder capable of being your No. 2 outfielder.

Niko Goodrum, 1B/2B, Detroit Tigers: Another player that does not figure to contend for a batting title, but we are also not talking about a Joey Gallo-type batting average. Goodrum hit .245. He has some pop and speed and you can get your middle infielder in the final round or in free agency.

Miles Mikolas, St. Louis Cardinals: He will not be striking out a hitter per inning, but the skill set looks safe to me for something close to a repeat.

Shane Bieber, Cleveland Indians: I worry a bit about his ability to retire left-handed hitters, but he has excellent control and just whiffed more than a hitter per inning as a rookie. I have rostered Bieber in so many leagues already.

Jose Quintana, Chicago Cubs: He finally had a rough season, but remains durable and relatively consistent. I think a return to 2017 numbers makes sense.

Jhoulys Chacin, Milwaukee Brewers: We are talking about Round 25 or so here, but in each of his past two seasons he has been good enough to roster in a 10-team league. Durability matters, too.

Relief pitchers: More on this in the coming weeks as I project the saves for each bullpen, but here are some names I am more comfortable with than others, since I will not select a reliever in the top 100. David Robertson, Philadelphia Phillies; Jose Leclerc, Texas Rangers; Kirby Yates, San Diego Padres; Corey Knebel, Milwaukee Brewers; Jordan Hicks, St. Louis Cardinals.
]]>Fantasy Sports ForumHache Manhttp://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1133994Salvador Perez injury cuts into already shallow depth at catcherhttp://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1133915&goto=newpost
Wed, 06 Mar 2019 21:29:42 GMTSalvador Perez injury cuts into already shallow depth at catcherESPN PLUS ($ MATERIA:L)
The...Salvador Perez injury cuts into already shallow depth at catcher

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The state of catching in fantasy baseball was already quite brutal before the weekend news that Kansas City Royals starter Salvador Perez, hitter of 27 home runs in each of the past two seasons and boasting four consecutive campaigns of 20 or more, hurt his throwing elbow. Fantasy managers generally think the worst whenever an elbow is involved and in this case, there was ample reason for pessimism: Perez will likely miss the entire 2019 season as he recovers from Tommy John surgery.

A top-5 catcher in ADP by any measure, Perez was more of a mid-round pick overall, as fantasy managers in ESPN standard leagues, in which only one backstop is needed and few are difference-makers, do tend to wait longer to fill the position; until the final rounds in many cases. In multi-catcher formats, the strategy is clearly different, but it is not as if a new catcher suddenly became relevant thanks to the Perez injury, as is normally the case if a closer misses time, for example. The Royals have to go with Cameron Gallagher. Perhaps the non-contending Royals sign a catcher, but fantasy managers should not clamor for the likes of free agent Martin Maldonado, either.

Philadelphia Phillies starter J.T. Realmuto is outstanding and a potential top-50 pick in ADP as fantasy managers will panic and reach a bit, as they so often do in football with New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski. Whatever. Realmuto is good. New York Yankees enigma Gary Sanchezcould bounce back. San Francisco Giants hero Buster Poseycould return to health. Chicago Cubs youngster Willson Contrerascould find his absent power. There are many "coulds" and few certainties, and one of the best in the business is lost. Perez, 28, should recover ably and perhaps return to top-5 status in 2020, but waiting around in a dynasty format seems a waste of roster space, too.

Ultimately, this is bad news all around, but I would not alter my strategy in ESPN standard leagues and reach for the likes of the aforementioned catchers earlier than normal, or presume new Miami Marlins option Jorge Alfaro is all of a sudden truly worthy of top-10 status at the position. Yes, Alfaro is currently going No. 9 in ESPN ADP, but that seems more reflective of the desperation at catcher and the fact he has a starting role with playing time volume. It is tough to find 10 legitimate fantasy catchers, so streaming the position most often makes the most sense.

Weekend notes

Detroit Tigers first baseman Miguel Cabrera homered Saturday and witnesses claim he looks terrific at the plate. Perhaps it is so. Cabrera failed to hit for power in his abbreviated 2018 campaign, but his contact rate, plate discipline and hard-hit percentage remained excellent. Hey, this does seem like a decent late-round selection.

Speaking of bouncing back, Toronto Blue Jays right-hander Aaron Sanchez tossed a pair of scoreless frames on Friday. Sanchez went 15-2 with a 3.00 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and reasonable K rate in his breakout 2016, but blisters and walks have dogged him since. A good spring puts him back on the fantasy map as a draft-worthy asset.

Michael Pineda struck out 207 hitters in 2016. You might have forgotten since he won only six games that year for the New York Yankees, but it happened. His 2018 was faring similarly and then his throwing elbow -- as so many do -- blew up. Pineda is back now as a Minnesota Twins hopeful and he threw a pair of scoreless frames against the Red Sox Saturday. Keep an eye on his progress. We all like strikeouts.

Cincinnati Reds outfielder Jesse Winker, long a favorite of several ESPN fantasy analysts due to his impressive plate discipline -- and his love for fantasy football! -- homered to lead off Friday's game. Winker failed to show power in the minor leagues and this will get him ignored by many, but I think he can hit at least 20 home runs with regular playing time. As of now, Winker is the team's leadoff hitter. He should hit for average and score runs, too. We mock spring training stats as mostly meaningless, but if Winker keeps driving baseballs over fences, it matters.

Several members of the Atlanta Braves starting rotation are nursing arm woes, so pay attention to updates over the next few weeks on Mike Foltynewicz(elbow), Kevin Gausman (shoulder) and Mike Soroka (shoulder). For now, there is no need to drop these talented right-handers in the rankings.

The Milwaukee Brewers boasts a trio of potential top-10 relief pitchers in electrifying lefty Josh Hader and right-handers Corey Knebel and Jeremy Jeffress. Knebel was outstanding in 2017, with 126 Ks in 76 innings on his way to 39 saves, and seems to be in the lead to close with Jeffress nursing a sore shoulder and Hader likely to resume his role as a setup option.

As for Atlanta's bullpen situation, lefty A.J. Minter left Friday's outing with a barking shoulder, likely sending potential Arodys Vizcaino investors into a tizzy. Let us say that neither Minter nor Vizcaino, at this time, are locks for big seasons, especially with free agent and former Brave Craig Kimbrel still lurking as a free agent.

Chicago Cubs right-hander Yu Darvish tossed a pair of scoreless innings Sunday and boasts intriguing upside if healthy. Sure, everyone does, in theory, but Darvish struck out 209 hitters in 2017. We know how he is capable of performing.

Outfielder Zack Granite, a Minnesota Twins roster casualty of the Marwin Gonzalez signing, is now a member of the Texas Rangers organization after a minor weekend trade. The Rangers boast myriad outfield options and Granite, despite strong plate discipline and modest speed, figures to be a reserve behind Joey Gallo, Delino DeShields Jr. and Nomar Mazara, with Willie Calhoun and Shin-Soo Choo needing at-bats as well. Hunter Pence led off in Sunday's game but this is a crowded situation.
]]>Fantasy Sports ForumHache Manhttp://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1133915Expect a monster year from Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devershttp://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1133914&goto=newpost
Wed, 06 Mar 2019 21:28:23 GMTExpect a monster year from Red Sox third baseman Rafael DeversESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
FORT...Expect a monster year from Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers

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FORT MYERS, Fla. -- Alex Cora's arms were folded as he watched a fielding drill in Boston Red Sox camp the other day, and while he mostly wore a smile, his body language and occasionally pointed tone underscored his insistence for proper execution. The Red Sox manager wants the players to have fun and, at the same time, take their work seriously.

A throw went awry, and Cora's voice carried over the infield, flat and direct. "Do it again."

Then a ball rolled toward third base, and Rafael Devers, Boston's 22-year-old third baseman, rushed in, his feet chopping at the grass as he shortened his stride. He barehanded the ball and whipped it to first base, perfectly. Somebody called out Carita! -- Baby Face, Devers' nickname among his teammates -- and others echoed the word. Devers, grinning, returned to his position, and Cora's expression split into a smile.

Devers has been something of a project since Cora became manager of the Red Sox. The Boston roster is filled mostly with players who have already been stars -- Dustin Pedroia, David Price, Chris Sale, J.D. Martinez and others. But Devers is at the dawn of his career, or maybe a little beyond that, after his poised emergence in the playoffs and World Series last fall. His swing is dangerous and his confidence is enormous, and early in his career, he seemingly only lacks consistent habits, which Cora has aimed to reinforce.

In December, Cora held a clinic for young players in his hometown of Caguas, Puerto Rico. Devers was a guest instructor, alongside other former major leaguers, like Houston Astros coach Alex Cintron.

"Baseball's been kind of down since the hurricane [Maria]," Devers explained. "Kids haven't been going to the baseball field as much, and he asked if I could come and see what I could do to help bring kids out and get them inspired to play the game again."

As the event began on a warm morning, Cora lifted a microphone and spoke to the large gathering of kids, introducing each of the volunteers one by one. He saved Devers for last, praising the third baseman who wasn't that much older than some of the kids who sat and listened in awe.

This was his way of thanking Devers for making the journey, but also for Cora to track and reinforce the progress that Devers had made over the course of the year in his preparation and conditioning. At various stages in his time in pro ball, Devers has probably been a little heavier than the Red Sox would have preferred, but at the event in Caguas, Cora could see that Devers had lost weight; he was thriving in his offseason program.

"He looks great," Cora said. "He's in a good place."

Early last season, Cora dangled little incentives to Devers when he hit the ball the other way -- a promise to pick up a dinner check, for example. Devers had some good moments, but at 21, he slogged along at times, battling hamstring problems and finishing the regular season with a .240 average.

But after getting a start and a couple of hits in Game 3 of the American League Division Series against the Yankees, Devers played in four of five games in the AL Championship Series, going 5-for-12 at the plate. After the Dodgers outlasted the Red Sox in 18 innings in Game 3 of the World Series, Devers entered Game 4 in the ninth inning as a pinch hitter, giving the Red Sox the lead with a single through the middle. Cora talked afterward about how comfortable Devers looked, how at ease he was in what might have been perceived as a high-pressure situation.

"I was just confident in that moment," Devers said last week, through an interpreter. "I just felt that I was at 100 percent. My main goal is to help the team in any way I can, and early in the year, I was banged up. Alex gave me some time to recover from that, and I think that helped a lot going into the playoffs.

"Honestly, those moments in the playoffs excite me. My mentality was I was just going to do what I could with whatever opportunity they gave me, and the team we had last year made me even more confident."

After the Red Sox won the World Series, Devers took home a baseball signed by all of the players -- a rare souvenir for him, because, as he explained, he's not really one to covet stuff. In Devers' 15th game in the big leagues, in 2017, he faced Aroldis Chapman in Yankee Stadium and drove a 103 mph fastball into the visitors bullpen in Yankee Stadium -- to date, the fastest recorded pitch hit for a home run.

A Red Sox teammate tracked down the ball, and after the game, he handed it to Devers, understanding this was a memento that Devers might treasure. His first home run in Yankee Stadium, to tie a game in the ninth inning, a momentous shot off of one of MLB's best closers.

Devers accepted the ball and, as far as he can remember, he put it into the locker in front of him, or maybe in a travel bag. He hasn't seen it since then, has no idea where it might be, and isn't worried about it. If Devers' talent manifests in the way his manager believes it can, Devers will muster a lot more hits, and more home runs, in the years ahead.
]]>Fantasy Sports ForumHache Manhttp://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1133914fantasy baseball draft softwarehttp://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1133539&goto=newpost
Thu, 28 Feb 2019 19:49:17 GMTcan anyone recommend a draft and lineup software that is useful? thanks!can anyone recommend a draft and lineup software that is useful? thanks!
]]>Fantasy Sports Forumdrpugilisthttp://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1133539Fantasy Baseball 2019 Need at Least One teamhttp://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1133501&goto=newpost
Thu, 28 Feb 2019 03:41:28 GMTDraft Monday March 18th Online at 7:30 Central
Yahoo Head to Head League
Scoring... Ask if...Draft Monday March 18th Online at 7:30 Central

Yahoo Head to Head League

Scoring... Ask if interested I can send you and email with the scoring

Entry $225

Payouts for top 2 regular season and top 3 playoffs

Weekly prize to keep late season competitive

we have 11 teams and will play up to 14

you can add me at my handle here and add 73 at yahoo

Please let me know if you email so I can look for it

I have been running this league for 10 years most players are from another forum

My favorite metric when it comes to slotting relief pitchers is win probability added (WPA). According to FanGraphs.com, the top five relievers in that category last season were: Oakland's Blake Treinen, Milwaukee's Jeremy Jeffress, Seattle's Edwin Diaz, Boston's Craig Kimbrel and Milwaukee's Josh Hader. If you followed last season closely, you don't even have to go to the numbers to realize that's a solid listing of the best relievers in baseball.

In most good statistical categories, there is a certain amount of year-to-year consistency. There are always changes, but the leaderboard from one season to the next doesn't look as if you've accidentally subbed in names from another sport. But you know where Treinen -- the reigning WPA leader -- ranked in that metric in 2017? That would be 595th. Jeffress? He was 555th. Even Diaz, who was already established as a premier reliever, ranked just 62nd.

With relievers, you just don't know how the landscape will look from one season to the next.

Building a bullpen is hard, for just this reason. No position group varies as wildly in its performance from one season to the next as relievers. It's not even close. That's why, as much as anything, the best reliever of the current decade -- Craig Kimbrel -- has yet to find a home via free agency.

With that rather large caveat, we conclude our position tiers series with relievers. Squirrelly as they might be, their prominence in baseball has never been greater, in innings, in sheer number of pitchers, in the impact on deciding individual games.

We've reached this place with relief pitching in large part because of analytically driven strategic evolutions over the past 30 years or so. But we've also gotten here because the supply of big-armed relief pitchers has never been greater. That's certainly true in the major leagues, and by all accounts, it's just as true in the minors.

There used to be an adage in baseball that if what you have in the bullpen isn't any better than what you've got on the mound, then you stick with what you've got on the mound. Nearly all of the best arms in baseball were starters, so the goal for every manager was to get as many innings out of his rotation as possible.

Now that's not really a thing. Starters aren't judged so much for their stamina as they are for their pitch efficiency. Can they get through the order twice without burning through too many pitches? Good enough, because there is a crew of flamethrowers ready to come on and finish it off. Managers don't dread going to the bullpen -- they can hardly wait to do it. It's the most fundamental change to the experience of taking in big league baseball over the past decade.

As with the starters, we can take a snapshot of teams' bullpen situations by seeing how many relievers they have in each tier. This is a role-independent evaluation except in this regard: By awarding more points for the better tiers, we can in effect replicate the effect of leverage on how bullpens are set up. The better relievers, if used in an optimal fashion, should have a disproportionate impact on their team's chances to win in a given game. That's what leverage is.

It's not a perfect way to look at it, but it's worth checking out, even if that year-to-year volatility that I mentioned is a giant red flag that these rankings probably will look very different by the end of the 2019 season.Tier-Based Bullpen Rankings

TEAM

I

II

III

IV

V

VI

PITCHERS

RATING

Yankees

0

0

0

3

3

1

7

2.29

Phillies

0

0

0

1

4

0

5

2.20

Mets

0

0

1

0

4

1

6

2.17

Astros

0

0

0

1

7

0

8

2.13

Athletics

0

0

0

1

6

1

8

2.00

Brewers

0

0

0

2

4

2

8

2.00

Twins

0

0

0

0

6

0

6

2.00

Indians

0

0

0

1

2

1

4

2.00

Dodgers

0

0

0

1

5

2

8

1.88

Rays

0

0

0

0

7

1

8

1.88

White Sox

0

0

0

1

4

2

7

1.86

Cardinals

0

0

0

1

4

2

7

1.86

Blue Jays

0

0

0

1

3

2

6

1.83

Angels

0

0

0

0

5

1

6

1.83

Padres

0

0

0

1

7

3

11

1.82

Cubs

0

0

0

0

7

2

9

1.78

Pirates

0

0

0

1

3

3

7

1.71

Giants

0

0

0

0

4

2

6

1.67

Braves

0

0

0

0

4

2

6

1.67

Tigers

0

0

0

0

5

3

8

1.63

Nationals

0

0

0

1

3

4

8

1.63

Orioles

0

0

0

0

5

3

8

1.63

Reds

0

0

0

1

3

4

8

1.63

Mariners

0

0

0

0

3

2

5

1.60

Rockies

0

0

0

0

4

3

7

1.57

Rangers

0

0

0

0

4

3

7

1.57

Red Sox

0

0

0

0

4

3

7

1.57

Diamondbacks

0

0

0

0

4

3

7

1.57

free agents

0

0

0

1

3

9

13

1.38

Royals

0

0

0

0

3

7

10

1.30

Marlins

0

0

0

0

2

5

7

1.29

Total

0

0

1

18

132

77

228

1.75

Tier I (franchise performers) & Tier II (All-Stars):

Some of them might be really good, but they're still relief pitchers.

Tier III: First-division regulars

Edwin Diaz, New York Mets (R)
Position rank: 1
hWAR: 2.84In his third big league season, Diaz shook off the inconsistencies of his first two campaigns and became a legit relief ace. In 73⅓ innings, he struck out 124 batters -- a rate of 15.2 per nine innings -- and walked only 17. He improved his first-strike percentage from 55.8 percent to 67.3. When you get behind in the count to Diaz, you've got no chance against his slider. According to StatCast, Diaz's overall .212 xwOBA (expected weighted on-base percentage) was the lowest any pitcher allowed in baseball. The xwOBA on his slider: .163. That's just not fair.Tier IV: Second-division regulars

Josh Hader, Milwaukee Brewers (L)
Position rank: 2
hWAR: 2.28Hader won the Trevor Hoffman Award as the National League's top reliever last season, a testament to his dominance, our collective improvement in evaluating relievers, and the brilliance with which Milwaukee deployed its best pitcher. That latter factor was clear during the Brewers' terrific seven-game loss to the Dodgers in the NLCS, when Hader's availability and looming presence seemed to shadow the decision-making of L.A. manager Dave Roberts like a nagging cough. Hader struck out 143 batters last season in 81⅓ innings. He gave up 36 hits.Andrew Miller, St. Louis Cardinals (L)
Position rank: 3
hWAR: 2.26Hader usurped Miller's status as baseball's greatest lefty nuclear option. Miller just couldn't get healthy for any stretch of time during his last season for the Indians, spending time on the DL for a strained hamstring, right knee inflammation and a shoulder impingement. The lack of continuity showed in his numbers. Over just 34 innings, his WHIP rose from 0.38 to 1.38 and his ERA ballooned from 1.44 to 4.24. If Miller is healthy this season, St. Louis will have the kind of weapon to negate what division rival Milwaukee has in Hader.Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers (R)
Position rank: 4
hWAR: 2.19The Dodgers gave Jansen spring training off last season, a statement that isn't as much of an exaggeration as it might seem. He started poorly, struggled with muscle pulls and a recurrence of old heart rhythm problems, and posted the worst season of his career. His 3.01 ERA tells only part of the story. Jansen gave up 13 homers in 71⅔ innings, more than twice the number of long balls he'd ever given up in a season. Too often, Jansen simply didn't know if his cutter would behave as it always had. His xwOBA on the pitch -- long one of the most devastating in baseball -- jumped from .223 to .271. The same number on his slider went from .089 to .240. Early reports from spring training have been encouraging, as spring reports so often are. Jansen has lost 25 pounds and has learned to use tracking data to amp up the spin rate on his pitches.Blake Treinen, Oakland Athletics (R)
Position rank: 5
hWAR: 2.18

One thing that should have jumped out from the WPA chart used for the illustration above: Treinen was one of baseball's most improved performers in 2018. You can really trace his improvement to 2017, after he was traded to Oakland from Washington in the deal that sent Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson to the Nationals. According to StatCast, Treinen has relied more on his four-seamer since moving to the A's and last season started throwing a cutter on about one out of every 10 pitches. His xwOBA on those offerings was .144. That's how you lead the majors in WPA.Aroldis Chapman, New York Yankees (L)
Position rank: 6
hWAR: 2.12Chapman's max-effort, blinding-speed game will never hold up over any length of time. Sure, it's impressive to see a guy who can come in and light up the radar, but there is more to succeeding on the mound than sheer velocity, especially as a pitcher ages and his stuff begins to diminish. ... OK, you've probably picked up on what I was doing there. Chapman, for lack of a more elegant term, is a freak. He's nine years into a successful career that has consisted of rearing back and blowing hitters away. But last season, some cracks appeared in his facade. Chapman's average four-seam velocity dipped below triple digits for the first time since 2013 and his xwOBA on those pitches rose from .275 to .352. He began to throw his slider more, and to good effect. This season, we might find out if that adjustment will hold up for a few more years of dominance or if hitters will finally start to get their revenge for all those years of whiffs.Other Tier IV relievers: 7. Corey Knebel, Brewers (2.08 hWAR); 8. Craig Kimbrel, free agent (2.07 hWAR); 9. Felipe Vazquez, Pittsburgh Pirates (1.95 hWAR); 10. David Robertson, Philadelphia Phillies (1.83 hWAR); 11. Brad Hand, Cleveland Indians (1.78 hWAR); 12. Roberto Osuna, Houston Astros(1.70 hWAR); 13. Dellin Betances, Yankees (1.69 hWAR); 14. Zack Britton, Yankees (1.67 hWAR); 15. Sean Doolittle, Washington Nationals (1.64 hWAR); 16. Ken Giles, Toronto Blue Jays (1.61 hWAR); 17. Raisel Iglesias, Cincinnati Reds (1.54 hWAR); 18. Kirby Yates, San Diego Padres (1.53 hWAR)Kimbrel is a future Hall of Famer and has been so good for so long now that you wonder if whatever he was asking for this winter was just out of whack for what any short reliever can get. That's especially true for a player who is coming off a career-worst 3.13 ERA, lost 2.5 strikeouts per nine innings off his 2017 figure and gave up a career-high seven homers. Then, when the Red Sox were in position to slam the door in the World Series, it was Chris Sale, not Kimbrel, who got the call. None of this is to say that Kimbrel can't be a top-flight reliever for a few more years. It's just to say that the rare certainty he always provided -- his most valuable trait, really -- might no longer be there. Whatever is going on, Kimbrel needs only to look at Greg Holland's 2018 travails as an example of why it's probably better that he get into a camp sooner than later.

As for Doolittle ... that's a heck of a good literary name, don't you think?

Teams have very gradually asked more offensively from second basemen over the decades, a slow-moving trend that dates back to the 1950s. Lately, though, you have to wonder if that's the only thing that's changing at the position.

One undeniable trend is that second basemen hit for more power than they used to. According to positional data from Baseball Prospectus, dating back to 1951, this been an up-and-down proposition over the years, but it has settled in at the upper end of the roller coaster.

In 1951, those who played most of their games at second base accounted for 7.68 percent of all homers hit. That number began to decline immediately from there, dropping all the way to a low of 4.71 percent by 1972. There wasn't a single keystone player to hit even 20 homers in a season from 1968 to 1972. In fact, it happened only twice during both the 1950s and 1960s.

Then things started to change -- slightly -- with the maturation of slugging second basemen like Davey Johnson, Joe Morgan and Bobby Grich in the 1970s. Still, that 1951 homer apex of 7.68 percent wasn't matched again until 2001, when it hit 7.73. There was a one-year dip in 2002, but in each season since then, second basemen have accounted for at least 8 percent of homers.

We reached peak second-base slugging in 2016, at 10.43 percent, more than a twofold spike over the 1972 nadir. A record 13 primary second basemen topped 20 homers in 2016, nearly half the regulars in baseball. That number -- 13 -- matched the total of all keystoners to surpass 20 homers from 1951 to 1984. In 2016, second basemen hit more total homers (585) than catchers, shortstops, center fielders and designated hitters. They also set a new mark for the position by accounting for 12.4 percent of all runs created.

However, the trend has begun to ebb. The homer total for second basemen has fallen from 585 to 558 to 509 over the past couple of years. The share of runs created has fallen to 10.9 percent. Why?That's hard to say, and it's too early to even call it a true reversal in thetrend. The offensive levels for second base remain much higher than they've been for much of baseball history. It's not a matter of moving players around. Twenty-one second basemen had enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title in 2018, the highest total in 11 years.

You might think that the pendulum is swinging back toward defense at the spot, but that brings us to another, perhaps less detectable, trend: Second basemen are also doing less on defense.

Total chances for every position except catcher are at lower levels than they used to be. Based on data from FanGraphs.com, here is the difference in chances per game for each position, with 1956 compared to last season:

You probably have already guessed why this is. The relentless climb of strikeout levels has meant less action for every defender on the field, at least those without a face mask and a chest protector. Combine that change with the more recent heightened emphasis on fly ball hitting, and infielders are disproportionately affected -- no position more than second base.

Generally speaking, there have always been around 3.3 infield fielding chances for every outfield chance. That ranged up to 3.7 or so for most of the pitching-heavy 1960s, but has dropped to below 3.2 for most of the past decade. However, last season that ratio dove to a record low of 3.01, down from 3.16 in 2017. With any further decrease, we'll dip under 3 for the first time.

Second basemen handled 15.52 percent of all non-catcher fielding chances during the 2018 season, the lowest figure ever. (Or at least since 1956, the first season for which we have a full data set.) The figures for shortstops are at an all-time low as well, but the drop hasn't been as severe.

What is going on? Could the shift have anything to do with this?

Well, it almost certainly does. While shifts still account for only a portion of total defensive configurations, there simply didn't used to be so many second basemen playing shallow right field. There didn't used to be so many shortstops playing behind the second-base bag, or often to the first-base side of it. Fielders are just not positioned where they used to be positioned.

The bottom line is that second basemen are handling less of a defensive load than ever before, which in turn makes fielding a slightly less crucial aspect of valuing them as a player. We've seen that in play, with teams like the Dodgers and Brewers at times de-emphasizing range at second base, instead looking for offensive production and leaving the run-prevention part of it to the guys who are generating the hitters' spray charts.

It appears that in 2019 baseball, the once-hallowed ability to turn a double play has become marginally less important than the ability to turn around a fastball and drive it into the seats. And the ability to range behind the back of second base as Roberto Alomar once did is now less important than knowing how to read the positioning chart on your wrist as the count changes.

Is this better baseball or worse? Probably it's neither. It's just different. In any event, the qualities that once were trademarks of the best second basemen don't appear to be the quite the same ones teams are using to evaluate the position in today's game

TIER I: FRANCHISE PERFORMERS

None. I promise you there are 15 players (across all positions) that have been placed on this tier. We'll start getting to them Friday.

hWAR: 4.81After winning the 2017 American League MVP award and leading the Astros to their first World Series crown, there almost had to be no place to go but down for Altuve. Indeed, after winning two consecutive batting crowns and after four straight seasons of leading the AL with 200 or more hits, Altuve posted his worst season since 2013. It's all relative. Despite battling knee trouble for much of the season, which necessitated surgery after Houston was knocked out of the playoffs, Altuve still hit .316/.386/.451 with 13 homers and 17 steals.

The down season put a punctuation mark -- perhaps only a comma, but a mark nonetheless -- on a remarkable peak performance. According to the Complete Baseball Encyclopedia, Altuve created 267 runs during his 2016 and 2017 seasons. Since 1901, the only second basemen with more over a two-year span have been Rogers Hornsby, Charlie Gehringer, Joe Morgan, fellow Astro Craig Biggio and Nap Lajoie. They're all Hall of Famers. Someday, Altuve might well join them in Cooperstown, New York.

Robinson Cano, New York Mets
Position rank: 2
hWAR: 3.71Cano has been one of the most productive hitters of the 2010s and one of the 20 or so best second basemen of all time. His Hall of Fame case would be almost without blemish if not for last season's 80-game suspension for testing positive for a banned substance. Suffice to say, as Cano returns to New York to don the Mets' pinstripes rather than the Yankees', 2019 will be key to refurbishing a tarnished reputation, at least in the minds of some future Hall voters.

The suspension meant that Cano's 2018 season was bifurcated, but overall it was a strong performance. His .845 OPS was just off his career mark of .848, while his on-base percentage (.374) was 19 points better than his career standard. That kind of post-35 performance is exactly the level that Hall second basemen like Hornsby, Gehringer, Lajoie and Eddie Collins maintained late into their careers. Cano had a .825 OPS before his suspension and .860 after it, which bodes well for the Mets.

Javier Baez, Chicago Cubs
Position rank: 3
hWAR: 3.50Just when debates about whether Baez was the National League's MVP front-runner started to get heated, he settled the furor by going ice-cold. Beginning with his game Sept. 3, Baez hit just .245 the rest of the way as the Cubs limped down the finish and wound up losing first place in the NL Central to the upstart Brewers. That took some of the shine off Baez's season, but it was a great one in any event. Still only 25, Baez hit 34 homers, the most for any Cubs middle infielder not named Ernie Banks, Ryne Sandberg and Rogers Hornsby. He also became the first Cub to lead the league in RBIs since Sammy Sosa in 2001.

Baez will never be a patient hitter, and his propensity for swinging from his heels borders on legendary. Still, he has managed to harness these qualities to become a tougher out at the plate. His on-base percentage (.326) was below average, but it is the best he has done yet and was just enough to keep pitchers near the strike zone, where he is as dangerous as anyone. He accomplished this by becoming more of a line-drive hitter than a pure lift guy and showing a heightened willingness to go to opposite field. It's a maturation that he needs to continue.

Baez will begin the season as the Cubs' starting shortstop while teammate Addison Russell serves a suspension for violating the league's domestic violence policy. Depending on how long it takes Russell to earn his way back onto the field, Baez might end up at short for a good part of the season. He's terrific defensively wherever he plays.

TIER III: FIRST-DIVISION REGULARS

Whit Merrifield, Kansas City Royals
Position rank: 4
hWAR: 3.22Merrifield was 27 years old when he debuted in the majors for the then-defending-champion Royals in 2016. He's been nothing short of terrific ever since. He's led the AL in stolen bases the past two years, though given the composition of the 2019 Royals, it's no sure thing he'll even lead his team this time around. He also paced the circuit with 192 hits, a club record for second basemen. After the season, K.C. inked Merrifield to a four-year contract extension worth a reported $16.25 million.

Merrifield should be worth the money, even though he hit his 30th birthday in January. He has measured as better than average at second base thus far in the majors, but he has the versatility to move to any outfield spot or to an infield corner. The more he's seen of big league pitching, the better he has done. But his age is his age, and if the Royals don't show signs that general manager Dayton Moore's reshuffling project is gathering rapid momentum, you have to figure Merrifield will be a coveted trade target. The Royals might simply like him too much to move him.

Gleyber Torres, New York Yankees
Position rank: 5
hWAR: 3.16You can almost envision an alternate universe where the Cubs never traded for Aroldis Chapman and sidestepped the Russell fallout by dealing him before he ever got into trouble. They would have done that for baseball reasons, because it would have been a chance to set up a Torres-Baez middle infield that would have been too good to pass up. After a high-profile minor league apprenticeship, Torres finally arrived in the majors in 2018 and he did not disappoint, hitting 24 homers and finishing third in AL Rookie of the Year voting despite playing the entire campaign at age 21.

Torres' 24 homers were tied for the third-most by a middle infielder 21 or younger. The tie is with Atlanta's Ozzie Albies, who also hit 24 homers as a 21-year-old second baseman last season. The future of the position is bright! The only middle infielders that young to hit more dingers were Alex Rodriguez (36 HRs, 1996) and Cal Ripken Jr. (28 HRs, 1982), and they were both shortstops. Heady stuff. The most by a primary second baseman was 19, by Bill Mazeroski in 1958.

Torres still has his rough edges. He could stand to make more contact, and his defensive metrics were merely average. The latter could be more of an issue in 2019 as Torres might have to log more time at shortstop until teammate Didi Gregorius recovers from his Tommy John surgery. The Yankees did sign Troy Tulowitzki, but he is just a wee bit injury-prone.

Chris Taylor, Los Angeles Dodgers
Position rank: 6
hWAR: 2.75In some ways, Taylor is the consummate current-day Dodger. He is a three-true-outcomes artist whose production was greatly honed by L.A.'s analytics machine, he's quiet as a mouse -- only grittier -- and plays solid defense at an impressive combination of key defensive positions. That's not to say Taylor is a mere organizational automaton. His individuality is expressed by a rather inexplicable choice of Jerry Reed's "Amos Moses" as a walk-up song.

Anyway, Taylor's NL-high strikeout total began to spiral to uncomfortable levels last season. He needs to improve his consistency or the Dodgers might stop seeing him as an exemplar of the 21st century, everyday utility player. With the way the depth chart sets up at present, it seems likely that Taylor will be the Dodgers' closest thing to a regular second baseman.

Ozzie Albies, Atlanta Braves
Position rank: 7
hWAR: 2.70Early in the season, Albies looked like a he was headed for the kind of MVP challenge that Baez eventually mounted. In some ways, Albies was reminiscent of an even younger Baez, with his all-out style of play and flair for the spectacular on defense. Beyond the flash, early on he flat-out raked. On May 22, Albies' .394 wOBA ranked 22nd in baseball. He fell off badly down the stretch, with a .606 OPS in August and .656 in September, even as the Braves secured their first NL East crown since 2013.

Like Baez, Albies is often an overaggressive hitter who shows a rather nasty platoon split at this early juncture of his career. Last season, he hit .335 with a .905 OPS against lefties, but just .231 with a .696 OPS against righties. He's a switch-hitter, and his progress from the left side of the plate will be key to his continued ascension as a future All-Star. The projection systems tout a disparate range of infielders from Francisco Lindor to Rougned Odor. Albies needs to hone his approach to be more like the former than the latter.

Brian Dozier, Washington Nationals
Position rank: 8
hWAR: 2.39Dozier was drafted by the Twins in 2009, and until last season's July 31 trade deadline, that was the only organization he'd known. But then he was sent to the super-deep Dodgers to be another cog in that division-title machine. It did not work out; Dozier hit just .182 for the Dodgers and .215 overall, with poor defensive metrics to boot. His patience and pop off the bat remained intact and, surprisingly, you can't point to a lack of contact for Dozier's troubles. His strikeout rate (19.4 percent) was actually his lowest since 2014.

The culprit was a sinking BABIP (.240 and just .196 for L.A.). The good news is that Dozier's hard-hit rate was better than ever. He seems like an excellent bounce-back candidate. Dozier ended up playing a bit role during L.A.'s postseason run. After signing with the Nationals over the winter, Dozier is now on his third organization in less than a year. His ranking is driven by projections still riding the sails of the 76 homers Dozier hit over the 2016 and 2017 seasons, but also seems realistic given the source of his 2018 travails.

DJ LeMahieu, New York Yankees
Position rank: 9
hWAR: 2.34At some point, LeMahieu's days as an everyday second baseman seem numbered. If Tulowitzki proves healthy, it might happen in spring training. Otherwise, it figures to happen when Gregorius returns. Either way, LeMahieu will be an important piece for the Yankees in what ultimately figures to be a super-utility role. At the very least, the three-time Gold Glover's defense will be crucial in an infield that struggled in that area last season.

LeMahieu's numbers tumbled badly in his final season with Colorado, though he spent three different stints in the disabled list (now the injury list) with, in order: a strained hamstring, a sprained thumb and a strained oblique. It was a tough season. Beyond getting healthy, LeMahieu has to prove that he can hit away from Coors Field. For his career, he has a .835 home OPS against .673 on the road.

Like Dozier, Schoop left the only organization he'd played for and became a prized in-season pickup for a contender, landing with the Brewers at the July deadline. And like Dozier, he struggled. Schoop hit .202/.246/.311 in 46 games for Milwaukee, then went 0-for-8 during the postseason. Finally -- like Dozier -- he finds himself in the top 10 of his position because of what he did in previous seasons. Ironically, he'll try to justify those forecasts in Dozier's ex-gig as the everyday second baseman in Minnesota.

Schoop's troubles were harder to explain than Dozier's were. He struck out more and walked less. His power bat was still there in Baltimore, but didn't follow him to Milwaukee. The Brewers couldn't explain it. Milwaukee has had tremendous success with improving players coming in from other organizations, but with Schoop, it just didn't work out. Schoop did post above-average numbers in defensive runs saved but even in that, he committed seven errors after moving to the Brewers, posting a .934 fielding percentage. It just wasn't his year. However, Schoop is just 27 years old, so he still has a couple of prime seasons to rebound from his down year.

This is deep tier of very good players and features a number of rising players, like Moncada, Odor, Wendle and Urias. If defense were the only criteria, Wong might be Tier I, but his bat keeps him firmly in this class. The hoping-for-health bounce-back candidates are Panik and, obviously, Pedroia. You don't have to be a Red Sox fan to hope for a full season from one of the game's greats. According to FanGraphs, Pedroia ranks third among active second basemen with 46.6 career fWAR, behind Cano (56.3) and Ian Kinsler (47.7).

The player to watch here is Profar, who finally logged a full season after getting shuffled about by the Rangers for years. He's in a virtual dead heat with Schoop, falling short by a decimal point not displayed here. He responded with a .254/.335/.458 season with 20 homers and 10 stolen bases. He played only 10 games at second base but that's the position he's primed to play in Oakland after the departure of Jed Lowrie. Profar debuted in the majors in 2012 but will be only 26 when the 2019 season begins. I'm excited to see how he responds to some new voices.

I don't have much to say about this group, so I'll just drop a note about McMahon, the youngest of the group. He enters camp in a three-way battle to replace LeMahieu in Colorado, along with utility player Garrett Hampson and top prospect Brendan Rodgers. The best things McMahon has going for him right now are versatility -- he was slated to be the Rockies' regular at first base at this time last season -- and patience. He's walked in 9.3 percent of his plate appearances as a professional. Because of that and because he's left-handed, Joey Votto shows up on his list of comparables in both PECOTA and the Davenport projections. No pressure, kid.
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