Pershing Square 2.0

Abstract

In June 2015 William A. Ackman, the CEO and founder of New York hedge fund Pershing Square Capital, reflects on the success of the fund he has spent over a decade building. Since its inception in 2004, Pershing Square's assets under management had grown from $500 million to well over $18 billion. Ackman is now considering a sizable new portfolio position and must decide how he should raise capital to undertake this new investment. This choice is affected by the recent launch of his new, $6 billion closed-end vehicle, Pershing Square Holdings, as well as the firm's lengthening investment horizon. Although always activist in nature, Ackman and his fund had in recent years become substantively involved in the management of portfolio companies, often working to drive shareholder value by improving operating performance.

Related Work

In June 2015 William A. Ackman, the CEO and founder of New York hedge fund Pershing Square Capital, reflects on the success of the fund he has spent over a decade building. Since its inception in 2004, Pershing Square's assets under management had grown from $500 million to well over $18 billion. Ackman is now considering a sizable new portfolio position and must decide how he should raise capital to undertake this new investment. This choice is affected by the recent launch of his new, $6 billion closed-end vehicle, Pershing Square Holdings, as well as the firm's lengthening investment horizon. Although always activist in nature, Ackman and his fund had in recent years become substantively involved in the management of portfolio companies, often working to drive shareholder value by improving operating performance.

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We evaluate Eugene Fama's claim that stock prices do not exhibit price bubbles. Based on U.S. industry returns 1926–2014 and international sector returns 1985–2014, we present four findings: (1) Fama is correct in that a sharp price increase of an industry portfolio does not, on average, predict unusually low returns going forward; (2) such sharp price increases predict a substantially heightened probability of a crash; (3) attributes of the price run-up, including volatility, turnover, issuance, and the price path of the run-up, can all help forecast an eventual crash and future returns; and (4) some of these characteristics can help investors earn superior returns by timing the bubble. Results hold similarly in U.S. and international samples.