Clinton would have actually led in The Upshot’s survey if it, like most others, didn’t weight by party registration.

One possibility is that the public polls are understating Mr. Trump’s support because registered Republicans aren’t answering the telephone.

I would love to write that this was the only poll capturing the “hidden” Trump vote. And I would note that the Selzer/Bloomberg poll of Florida also happens to be weighted by party registration.

But based on my reporting, this is probably not what’s going on. Private pollsters are conducting surveys using similar methods, and they’re not seeing this. And after all, our poll found that registered Republicans were extremely likely to indicate their support for Mr. Trump — not exactly the shy Trump voter.

Mr. Trump’s consolidation of Republican-leaning voters is a trend in national surveys, and it comes alongside a corresponding decline in the number of supporters for Gary Johnson, the Libertarian candidate, who received just 4 percent of the vote in our survey — the lowest of any Upshot/Siena poll. Republicans have been likelier than Democrats to support Mr. Johnson in most of our polls.

Whites are coming home?

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Even college-educated white voters, who have been skeptical of Mr. Trump nationwide, are showing less skepticism in Florida. He has a lead of 51 percent to 35 percent among those voters in our survey.

Clinton weakness among white working-class DemocratsMr. Trump leads among white voters without a college degree by an impressive margin of 63 percent to 24 percent. He’s so strong that Mrs. Clinton has just 55 percent of the vote among white registered Democrats without a degree, compared with Mr. Trump’s 32 percent.