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Week Two Picks

This NFL season is certainly shaping up to be very intriguing on a number of fronts. Could we possibly have a playoffs that doesn’t include New England OR Indianapolis? It could be possible if Matt Cassel proves to be no Tom Brady and the Colts take too long to get it together after their disastrous week one effort. Are the Jets the new favorite in the AFC East, or is Buffalo for real? Are the Steelers ever going to get their due for being consistently good? Is the Bears defense back to the level of two years ago? Who is going to win the awful NFC West? It’s only one week into the season, and a number of my season picks are threatening to blow up in my face already. I keep telling myself it’s still early, but it is possible that my AFC Super Bowl pick may not be all its cracked up to be. I still think Jacksonville’s defense will not allow them to be a disappointment. Was I nuts to pick the 49ers to win the NFC West? I still maintain they’ll be a surprise by the end of the year. Was I drinking the Kool-Aid on the Minnesota hype? I still think they have a team that is scary talented. Am I underestimating Aaron Rodgers? I have to admit he looked very good in week one. We’ll see if he can maintain it over the long haul. Are the Chargers in trouble without Shawne Merriman? Or is that wishful thinking on my part?. It did seem like someone forgot to tell them the season started for three quarters against Carolina. Speaking of the Panthers, are they once again a contender in the NFC? That offense could really come alive when Steve Smith returns from suspension in week three. How praytell did the Falcons win a game, let alone dominate? I reserve judgement until I see them against someone other than Detroit.

At least I got a few things right in week one. The Cowboys dominated on the road. The Browns looked lost and confused. The Giants looked dominant like you would expect a defending champ to be. The Bengals REALLY stink, or did you see Joe Flacco score on a 38-yard touchdown run while jogging through the Bengals defense? The Seahawks looked horrible on the road. Brett Favre can still play a little. Donovan McNabb looks poised for a big season. The Raiders are a mess akin to Days of Our Lives as usual. The Broncos offense could be scary good. Or maybe that’s wishful thinking. Perhaps that was more the Raiders are awful.

One thing I know, this could be a season unlike any other. Or maybe it will be just like any other. For 11 consecutive seasons, there have been at least five teams in the playoffs who did not qualify the previous year. With the exception of the 2006 Seahawks, the Super Bowl loser has missed the playoffs every year since 2000. Even at that the Seahawks only made it past the first round the next year thanks to Tony Romo’s butterfingers. Here are the numbers:

2000 New York Giants – Lost Super Bowl XXXV
2001 New York Giants – 7-9 record, no playoffs

This does not bode well for the Patriots in light of Tom Brady’s injury. I know, I picked the Patriots to return to the AFC title game, but I also said they were done if Brady went down. It will be interesting to see if the Patriots continue the trend of Super Bowl losers struggling the next year. On one hand, it is hard a fathom a team threatening history one year and missing the playoffs the next year. On the other hand, the Patriots missing the playoffs this year would be right in line with what the NFL is about much of the time. I still shudder when I think of the Broncos going 6-10 in 1999 after winning back to back Super Bowls and being favored to compete for a third. After all there is the old cliche “On any given Sunday……” Now on to the picks.

Last Week: 9-7

– Jaguars over Bills: I have to admit I really struggled with this one. The Bills dominated Seattle last week, and the Jaguars look like they could be in trouble. Still, I can’t picture the Jaguars 0-2, especially with Jack Del Rio having a week to drill discipline into his team before the home opener.

– Cardinals over Dolphins: Surprise stat of the week: the Cardinals actually went 6-2 at University of Phoenix Stadium last season. The Cardinals at 2-0 would rank among the season’s early surprises, but it would be an even bigger surprise if Chad Pennington had a big day against what is becoming one of the league’s most underrated secondaries.

– Jets over Patriots: Brett Favre’s home debut in New York puts an extra charge into this one, plus the Jets would just love to stick it to the Patriots in the wake of Spygate last year. I have a feeling Matt Cassel will find the road to be much more daunting than Gillette Stadium. Oh, and he doesn’t have the luxury of facing the Chiefs.

– Titans over Bengals: No Vince Young for Tennessee, but it won’t matter. There are high school teams that tackle better than Cincinnati’s defense. The Bengals offense looked a little confused too last week. Carson Palmer under 100 yards passing? The Marvin Lewis watch begins in Cincinnati. I say 75 percent he’s axed before the year is over.

– Steelers over Browns: Pittsburgh will run away with the AFC North. The Browns proved last week that they are a ways from the elite against Dallas. This one will be competitive due to the rivalry factor, plus an emotional under the lights home crowd in Cleveland, but the Steelers are the class of the division and they will prove it.

– Vikings over Colts: Chalk this one up as the most intriguing game of the week for me. Is this an elimination game of sorts already? The Colts cannot be confident heading into the loud Metrodome after getting shelled at home in their opener. Minnesota needs Tarvaris Jackson to show that potential we keep hearing about, but the Vikings defense will follow the Bears blueprint and harass Peyton Manning. Peyton, meet Jared Allen. Good luck. The Colts at 0-2? It seems beyond crazy, but it might just happen.

– Broncos over Chargers: Denver’s confidence is sky high after destroying the Raiders on the road, plus Brandon Marshall is back. If D’Angelo Hall couldn’t cover Eddie Royal one on one, how are the San Diego corners going to handle him and Marshall? The Chargers pass rush will really miss Merriman, plus Antonio Gates is hobbled. The Broncos might allow a high rushing day for LT, but their offense will be enough to win a shootout and enjoy a large lead in the AFC West. San Diego at 0-2? Seems really crazy, but it just might happen.

– Chiefs over Raiders: Dud game of the week. The rivalry is nasty enough that the game could actually be fun to watch, but these are two of the worst teams in the league. The Chiefs are reportedly having trouble selling out Arrowhead for this game, which tells all you need to know about the state of football these days in Kansas City. Still, the Raiders are a mess in every way, and Larry Johnson will run for enough to get KC a rare W.

– Giants over Rams: The G-men’s biggest challenge will be overcoming a 10-day layoff after opening the season with their Thursday night win over Washington. St. Louis was maybe the worst team in week one, so there is nowhere to go but up. This seems like it could be a trap game for New York if the Rams’ offense wakes up (Torry Holt 1 catch for 9 yards last week – are you kidding me?). Still, the Giants should be able to rely on their championship experience and pull out a win.

– Saints over Redskins: New Orleans will really miss Marques Colston, who is out 4-6 weeks. Still, Drew Brees has enough targets for the team to score offensively. The Redskins looked like they didn’t know which end was up offensively last week. If that continues, New Orleans will win a low scoring affair.

– Bears over Panthers: This should be a great game. Both teams pulled shockers in week one, so it’s hard to say which of these teams is better right now. The Panthers are without Steve Smith for another week, so that gives an edge to the Bears defense. Chicago won on the road during their Super Bowl run two years ago, and the hunch is they’ll find a way to pull out this one. This one really could go either way though.

– Packers over Lions: Aaron Rodgers played well last week in the spotlight, and the Packers look like they have a statement to make. Detroit? The Lions should be embarrassed losing to Atlanta. Home field advantage won’t help the Lions if they keep playing like that. This won’t exactly be a difficult road environment for Green Bay’s young signal caller.

– Buccaneers over Falcons: Brian Griese gets the start for Tampa so that gives slight pause. Still, the Falcons aren’t playing Detroit anymore. Matt Ryan could be in for a rude awakening this week against Monte Kiffin’s defense. Tampa Bay almost stole one last week and could be just good enough to make things interesting in the NFC South. On a side note, I am kicking myself that I didn’t rank Michael Turner higher in fantasy this year. He could have some big games this year even though he’s playing for the Falcons.

– Seahawks over 49ers: Seattle is still really banged up, and I really want to pick the upset. Thing is, Seattle has a tremendous home field advantage, and there is no reason to back San Francisco on the road right now after the way they played last week. Besides, Matt Hasselbeck has got to play better this week doesn’t he? This could be a really sloppy game.

– Texans over Ravens: This game has been moved to Monday night due to Hurricane Ike, which makes it the first Monday night game in Texans history. Even though it won’t be nationally televised,that’s enough for me in this toss-up matchup. Baltimore’s defense is still good, but I still want to see Joe Flacco on the road. Houston is a much better team than what they showed last week.

– Cowboys over Eagles: This too will be a fantastic game. In a way it’s a shame one of these teams will have to start the year 1-1. I like the Cowboys in what should be a raucous atmosphere for their home opener, on a Monday night no less. Still, the Eagles pose a big challenge. The sway factor will be a monster game from Terrell Owens, eager as always to show Andy Reid and company they did him wrong.