INDIANAPOLIS — Don’t be fooled by the fact the New England Patriots are 2 1/2-point favorites in Super Bowl XLVI. From everything you hear around town in Indianapolis, they’re perceived as the underdogs in Sunday’s game.

That perception exists mainly because Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning got the best of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady in Super Bowl XLII, and then defeated them again at New England in Week 9 this season. Then there’s that New York front-four pass rush, which is supposed to get in Brady’s face again.

Really, the biggest concern in this third matchup is how a Patriots pass defense that ranked last in the AFC in the regular season will handle a red-hot Manning and his two big-play wide receivers, Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz. It’s gotten to the point where some are thinking Manning has the edge at quarterback.

So the Patriots are facing a big offensive challenge, and Brady goes in as the passer whom many think will be outdueled. This pregame speculation sounds something like the discussion before the Patriots’ first winning Super Bowl, not their last losing one.

From their upset victory over the Rams 10 Februarys ago in Super Bowl XXXVI, only Brady and running back Kevin Faulk remain on the roster. And in that game, they were unquestionably the underdog, by a 14-point spread.

But trying to slow down Manning, Nicks and Cruz doesn’t sound much different from what the Patriots faced against Kurt Warner, Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt. The Patriots proved that year under Belichick, in the beginning of their three-ring dynasty, that the less talented team physically can still win if it’s the better team mentally.

So let’s fast forward to the Patriots’ second chance for a fourth championship under Belichick. Brady is no longer the fresh-faced upstart, but someone who’s already getting his bust bronzed for Canton. The execution of that pair will again be key in the effort to prove many wrong in the Super Bowl. But there are other reasons to think the Patriots will win:

• They learn well from their losses. Since the 2003 season—which culminated with their second ring in a Super Bowl XXXVIII win over the Carolina Panthers—the Patriots just don’t have losing streaks. This season, they suffered only their fourth two-game skid over the past nine years, falling to the Giants in Foxborough on Nov. 6, a week after stumbling in Pittsburgh. They also are stinging about dropping their past two games to the Giants.

It’s well known how well they rebound from one loss under Belichick. That intensity is only doubled when two losses are implanted in the brain, especially with an extra week to prepare.

“Every loss hurts,” Brady said. “When we lost to the Colts in the AFC championship game (after the 2006 season), that hurt pretty bad. Last year, losing to the Jets, you see other teams advance, and you’re staying at home. They all suck.

“You have to move on, and use those as opportunities to learn. We’ve done that. We’re a very mentally tough team. That’s probably one of strengths of this team.”

There’s a fine line between harping on adversity and the ability to overcome it. Brady and the Patriots walk it better than any other team in the NFL.

• They will cause the bigger matchup problems. The Giants don’t shy away from their own brand of wrinkles with personnel and scheme, but it’s no secret how they’ll try to win the game—from the outside. Defensively, that means relying on ends Osi Umenyiora, Jason Pierre-Paul and Justin Tuck to get to Brady with an edge pass rush. Offensively, it means stretching the field, with Nicks and Cruz streaking down the sidelines against the Patriots’ corners.

New England, however, has the bigger advantage inside. Defensively, with Vince Wilfork controlling the middle and Brandon Spikes providing a boost at linebacker, they can stop the run and put Manning in more predictable down-and-distance situations.

And with all due respect to the coverage challenges Nicks and Cruz present, they don’t have the dangerous duality of Patriots tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. When Gronkowski and Hernandez aren’t causing issues for the Giants’ suspect back seven as receivers (or runners), they can help control their front four as blockers.

• They’re not saying much. It’s typical, falling in line with Belichick, that they’ve stayed mum about all things game-related this week. They’ve also avoided responding to brash statements that several Giants—namely wide receiver Mario Manningham—have made about them.

“We’ve played these guys a few times now. You kind of can expect this from their side,” Patriots Pro Bowl guard Logan Mankins said. “The game is on the field. It’s not during the week, or in practice, or through the media. It’s on Sunday in that three-hour block. We’ll see who does the talking this weekend.”

From what Mankins and other Patriots have said, there’s a quiet confidence you expect from a seasoned, consistent winning team. Because of the failure four years ago, it’s easy to forget they are rarely outworked and underprepared.

We saw it first a decade ago, and Belichick and Brady will remind us of New England’s big-picture success in Super Bowl XLVI.