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Meanwhile in Europe, Germany is on the brink of a recession, as it is hit by weaker exports to China and elsewhere, as well as softer demand at home. The Eurozone is in a precarious position. Will they? Last week, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer the head of the ruling Christian Democratic Union CDU party in Germany and the likely next Chancellor, as well as over two dozen other German luminaries from the fields of politics, art, industry and sport issued a plea to the UK to change its mind and stay in the European Union EU.

Therefore, Britons should know: from the bottom of our hearts, we want them to stay. Where were these good people before the referendum in ? Source: www. By any yardstick, the defeat that May suffered is entirely of her own making.

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Tories must fear a terrible drubbing at the elections, if May continues as PM. It just means agreeing a set of side deals and a temporary return to WTO rules for trading, until new trade deals and arrangements are worked out between both parties. Nor does the UK for that matter.

A No Deal would be very inconvenient for the UK in the short term, as details of new arrangements are worked out, but it would be a growing tragedy for the EU to lose a nation it has a big trade deficit with. Besides a No Deal at, minimum, means:. This, at a time when the economic woes of Germany the driver of the EU 27 are growing as it is hit by weaker exports to China and elsewhere, as well as softer demand at home.

Weaker German growth is very bad news for the rest of the European continent, where many economies are linked to the demands of the German export machine and German consumers. A slowdown in Germany would hit France and Italy hard. The possibility of a No Deal or messy Brexit, populism and unrest in France, mounting US protectionism and the slowdown in China all are major headwinds for Germany and the Eurozone. Fast forward 6 months, and the EU is now being accused by US officials of dragging its feet on trade talks in the hopes of waiting out the Trump administration.

President Donald Trump is about to conclude a trade deal with China.

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Expect fireworks soon. I see a second referendum as the least likely outcome. A general election is more likely than a second referendum. We know that the country is divided roughly down the middle — half favouring Leave and half favouring Remain. A new referendum will only frustrate those who voted to leave and waste valuable time and resources.

Even if there were a second referendum, in my opinion, Leave is likely to win again. But 2.

For many in the UK — whether Remainer or Brexiteer, a second vote amounts to a violation of democracy. The US Government shutdown that started before Christmas carries on and is now the longest government shutdown in US history — beating the day clash between President Bill Clinton and the Republican Congress over federal spending that stretched from December 16, , to January 5, The shutdown is now entering its fifth week and shows no signs of coming to an end. Democrats on the other side buoyed by their successes in the mid-term elections, are refusing to grant Trump that money.

The deadlock continues. Of course, the Democrats would sue him, but at least the government would re-open and both sides could declare victory. Meanwhile, the US government may be shut down, but the markets are off to the races. The table below indicates the stellar run so far in , albeit given the sell-off in December, the rally is still only a comeback or a recovery rally.

Remember Energy was the worst performing sector last year down The Q4 earnings reporting period got underway last week in the US. The revenue beat has been falling for the last four quarters and points to a slowdown in the economy — which is not a bad thing overall, as it will keep the US Federal Reserve Fed from raising rates anytime soon. At the press conference that followed, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell struck, what the market thought, was a hawkish tone and risk assets promptly sold-off. The sell-off just kept getting worse into the holiday period.

4. Crack of Doom

Since then, Powell and his colleagues at the Fed have spoken at various forums to allay the worries that the Fed is on a pre-set path. US-China trade negotiations are entering a crucial stage and, in recent days, Trump has made positive remarks on the prospects of striking a deal. The U. In a very positive, and rather surprising turn of events, The Wall Street Journal reported last week that US officials are debating ratcheting back tariffs on Chinese imports, as a way to calm markets and give Beijing an incentive to make deeper concessions in a trade battle that has rattled global economies.

However, Mnuchin faces resistance from US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, who is concerned that any concession could be seen as a sign of weakness. In the past, Trump has sided with Lighthizer on tariffs, rather than Mnuchin. But this time, he has made it clear he wants a deal—and is pressing Lighthizer to deliver one, according to people familiar with the discussions.

So it seems trade wars are not easy to win and Trump is ready to fold, declare victory and focus on getting re-elected. China, on the other hand, would be relieved and of course trade fairly with the rest of the world as soon as it starts exporting of high-quality products — telecom products an example, and Chinese companies start outsourcing cheap labour to other countries.

Meanwhile in Europe, as mentioned above, Germany is on the brink of a recession as it is hit by weaker exports to China and elsewhere, as well as softer demand at home.

Germany is one of only a few Western economies to have had huge success exporting to China. It is not only German car manufacturers that are impacted, but some 5, German companies operate in China, many of them midsize engineering firms that deliver the capital goods that China has used to power its factories and build its infrastructure. So in light of all of the above, my allocation still remains overweight to US equities.

Finally just to remind you about what I wrote in the November Market Viewpoints.

Since , there have been 18 midterm elections and US stocks were higher 12 months after every single one. Yes, every single one. You will note that the performance of stocks in the third year of a presidential term beats all other years by a long shot. Therefore, I recommend you stay long equities. A part of me is tempted to say that assuming the Fed raises rates as expected, it is likely to be the last of this economic cycle. But then again, I look at the historically low level of unemployment and also believe that a deal between China and the US will be struck in time, and I am led to conclude that the Fed will still be able to raise interest rates next year.

As for the politics of populism, Europe will be the hotbed in The Gilets Jaunes has already humiliated French President Emmanuel Macron and forced him into an embarrassing climb down that will put a great strain on the French economy. I doubt Macron will recover from this debacle. I expect equities will rise post the Fed meeting this week as the dovish views finally get priced in. The US economy does not need a tax cut.

In fact, a tax cut will be counterproductive and it may overheat the economy, get the Fed to step in and raise rates and cause a recession in Red cups at Starbucks, a festive range of bags at Marks and Spencer, special window displays on the lit-up and decorated high street — can only mean one thing — Christmas is coming. However, for me, what really signals the arrival of the holidays is the arrival of The Nutcracker. It made its debut at the Marinsky Theatre in St.

Hoffmann which tells the story of a little girl Clara, her toy nutcracker and their adventure in a kingdom of sweets at Christmas time. This ballet has everything — fantasy, love, spectacle and the music is brilliant and familiar because it is out of copyright and therefore has featured in countless advertisements. Source: Moscow Ballet www. Russians living in St. Petersburg who saw the ballet for the first time were part of a generation experiencing a level of prosperity never seen before in history.

The Industrial revolution had brought rich dividends to Europe and the US, and Russia was very much considered a part of Europe then. The middle class lived in secure and comfortable homes with amenities such indoor plumbing, an electric stove, radio, television, and even hair dryers! It was a time of innovation and prosperity in Europe and the US. It symbolises a world that loved globalism and trade.

In the ballet, you see foreign delicacies — Spanish hot chocolate, Chinese tea, Arabian coffee and the famed sugar plum fairies, Danish shepherdesses, and of course Russian candy cane dancers along with a beautiful array of fantasy figures. Little did the people then know what was to soon to follow in Russia and in Europe.

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The happiness, merriment and times of plenty would soon give way to the darker sides of humanity — revolution and war — which would adversely impact the lives of millions. With populism, protectionism and revolution again in the ascendency, are we in for similar times ahead? The year will go down as one of the best in the nine recent years of US economic expansion. Meanwhile, in the rest of the world, the year began with most major economies expanding — leading some to think that Europe was going to expand at an even faster rate than the year before. Regular readers of this newsletter will know that — because of its structural problems — I take a very dim view on the Eurozone economy.

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