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A report to the city of Anaheim on the economic effects of Angels baseball at the “Big A” is so replete with unsubstantiated assumptions that it can't be used as a reliable indicator of the team's financial impact on the city, interviews and public records show.

The report, written by Texas-based Conventions, Sports & Leisure, makes generalized assumptions on consumer behaviors based on studies in other major league cities and uses formulas disputed by other economists. The zip codes of ticket buyers were reviewed but no Angels-game attendees were interviewed.

The report does not include millions in team-related city costs, some of which most City Council members were unfamiliar with until being informed by the Register.

One sports economist dismissed the entire city-funded report, saying the Texas consultant that performed it is in the business of providing cities and teams with reports that show favorable financial outcomes.

“Based on everything else I've seen CSL do, this is a promotional study,” said Andrew Zimbalist, co-author of “Sports, Jobs and Taxes: The Economic Impact of Sports Teams and Stadiums.” “If CSL came out with a study that said Anaheim had no positive economic impact, they wouldn't get any more work.”

The Angels' economic impact on Anaheim is important because the city is renegotiating the Angels' lease, which runs through 2029, at the request of the team. Although the team has not publicly threatened to exercise its opt-out provision, at least three of the five City Council members have said they areconcerned that the Angels might find more favorable circumstances and a new stadium elsewhere in the greater Los Angeles area.

Several economists and city officials interviewed said they believed that the team does provide civic and financial benefits for the city. But they also said that city officials should have accurate numbers before they negotiate a lease more favorable to the team. Questionable assumptions in the report leave uncertain how much Anaheim can give up in its renegotiations before the city starts subsidizing the team – if it isn't already.

CSL principal John Kaatz said that the city asked his firm to account for the money generated by having the Angels in town, but not associated city expenses. He acknowledged the speculative nature of such estimates but said the report made appropriate adjustments.

“Every economist will take a different approach to methods,” he said. “Our methods are based on extensive experience around the country. Our assumptions in the model are based on what we've seen in other cities. Anaheim is a particular place with unique characteristics, but we stand behind our model. There's no question that it's tough to make the determination, but CSL has been doing this for more than 20 years.”

DISPUTED ASSUMPTIONS

The 12-page report credits the team with generating $204 million in new spending in the city and $4.7 million in annual revenue for the city treasury. The Register found that using the consultant's assumptions, net city revenue drops to about $2.3 million when the expenses are accounted for.

But some economists are skeptical of the consultant's numbers, taking issue with the report's methodology and data in determining the new spending and annual revenue figures. (Specific methodology and data used is not included in the study, though Kaatz reviewed numerous aspects of the methodology with the Register.)

Chapman University economist Esmael Adibi oversaw a 1996 economic impact report on the Angels that did not receive team or city funding. He offered a more charitable view of the Texas consultant's report than Zimbalist – but still identified key shortcomings that tend to bolster the estimates of revenue and jobs for the city.

“There's no question there's a positive economic impact,” Adibi said. “The question is what it is. And there's no question that there are firms that do this kind of work and maybe it would be better to go to academics.”

Angels spokeswoman Marie Garvey said it was inappropriate for the team to comment because the study was commissioned by the city, not the Angels.

The biggest source of Angels-related funding to city coffers – 58 percent – comes from hotel taxes, according to the report. This is one of numerous disputed estimates, with critics raising several challenges:

The city of Anaheim on average has lost money on a year-to-year basis from Angel Stadium under its contract with the team over the past 16 years, city figures show. ROD VEAL, ORANGE COUNTY REGISTER
Questionable assumptions in a city-commissioned economic impact report leave it uncertain how much Anaheim can give up in stadium lease negotiations before it starts subsidizing the Angels – if it isn't already. The $30,000 study is based on surveys of other major league cities, with no Angels-game attendees interviewed. Among the assumptions: 18 percent of ticket buyers spend the night in a local hotel they wouldn't otherwise be staying in and 90 percent of those rent a room in Anaheim rather than a neighboring city. BRUCE CHAMBERS, ORANGE COUNTY REGISTER
The premise that 90 percent of game-goers who rented hotel rooms did so within the city limits – unstated in the report – is impossible to ascertain without surveying attendees, Chapman University economist Esmael Adibi said. KEVIN SULLIVAN, ORANGE COUNTY REGISTER
The proposed new Anaheim stadium lease would grant the team a 66-year, $1-per-year lease of 150 undeveloped acres around the stadium, which the team could develop according to the existing high-density residential, commercial and retail zoning. All tax revenue generated by the development for the city would be rebated to the team, according to the proposal - which is still being negotiated. FILE: KEVIN SULLIVAN, ORANGE COUNTY REGISTER
The study finds the Angels are responsible for $3.6 million in tax revenues to the city, but others believe the amount is far less – and that when adjusted for the city's Angels-related expenses, the net gain for city coffers is little if anything. BRUCE CHAMBERS, ORANGE COUNTY REGISTER

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