The Journal's all-purpose sports report.

Has Zach Randolph Peaked?

Memphis Grizzlies forward Zach Randolph, who will turn 30 in July, is following up his career year by thriving in the playoffs. But history suggests he may not be able to maintain his fine form next season.

Getty Images

Zach Randolph has thrived despite the defensive attention of Kendrick Perkins and other postseason foes.

Randolph hit more than 50% of his field-goal attempts for the first time since 2002-03, had his lowest turnover rate since that season and grabbed the highest percentage of available offensive rebounds (14.2%) since his rookie year of 2001-02, leading the NBA in that category. His overall performance added up to 0.185 win shares per 48 minutes, a stat that incorporates all a player’s offensive and defensive contributions that are quantified in the box score to produce one overall rating of his contributions to team success. (An average player would have WS/48 of 0.1.) He’s done even better in the playoffs, hitting more of his mid-range shots while increasing his rate of assists, steals and blocks and lowering his turnovers — good for a WS/48 of 0.254, sixth among all NBA players with at least 150 minutes in the playoffs and better than other postseason stars such as Derrick Rose and Dirk Nowitzki.

While it’s impressive that Randolph has upped his game in the postseason — a time when defenses are tougher and most players’ productivity falls off — he’s not alone in that category. Jamal Crawford and James Jones also rank in the Top 10 in that category thanks to improved shooting. And in a league where the aging curve typically peaks at ages younger than Randolph’s, it’s unlikely he will be able to sustain his performance in future seasons. Just 17 players have cleared a win shares per 48 minutes while playing at least 2,500 minutes for the first time in their career in a season in which they were 29 or older. And 15 of those 17 players never reached that level again, a group that includes Alonzo Mourning, Dennis Rodman and Dikembe Mutombo. Tim Hardaway reached that level of performance once more, while Detlef Schrempf did it twice more. This may also bode poorly for Lamar Odom, another veteran who reached 0.18 for the first time this season (at age 31), and for James Jones, who set a career high of 0.145 win shares per 48 minutes this season, at age 30. Memphis fans should enjoy Randolph’s fine form while it lasts; they may not see it again in his career.

SPORTS, THE JOURNAL WAY

Be sure to check your Daily Fix all week long. The Fix's daily rundown of the best sportswriting on the Web is joined by features such as The Count, a look at the most revealing sports stats, as well as regular live reports of major sports events. Tell us what you think of the Fix at dailyfixlinks@gmail.com.