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50% EV would be amazing in 17 years. Now that I'm at the point in my life when you add the number to your age to see if you'll be around (yes youngins you WILL do this:smile I'm pleased to hear that Elon thinks I'll be around to see such a significant change.

Leilani - I don't know if it's check mate just yet (one or two moves away). However, it is another shot across the bow to the automotive industry.

While it has been a fashionable rumor that Tesla would enter a car in NASCAR competition (or ARCA), this technology poses an interesting question: how quick would the battery swap have to be (while rotating the tire) to compete with professional pit crews in NASCAR, etc.?

I think the writing will be on the wall after Nissan, and others get a second generation electric vehicle out there. And when Tesla gets Gen III out there. The only thing holding people back will be apartment living, and how many electric cars are for sale.

And honestly that probably will take 10-15 years. But if supply can come around, apartments will start putting in charging spots. Battery swap and high power DC charge spots will start going in. And that will only fuel more demand. As soon as the charge infrastructure starts going in it will be a rapid move to EV.

Now don't expect most cars to be electric by that time, just more than half of new cars being electric. Current ICE cars are living 8-12 years currently. I don't expect that to change much in the next 20 years. So for most cars on the road to be electric we are probably looking at 30 years. When you think about most new cars being electric, fuel demand will drop, easing the pressure on rising fuel prices for those legacy cars.

And there will always be a niche market for ICE vehicles. I expect they will maintain a single digit percentage of the market for a long time.

Headline: CBC News June 21st, 1996
The head of a leading photography research centre thinks the 35mm film camera will be world's most popular camera for at least another two decades.

Peter Frise, CEO of Kodak Research, a national research and development network at the University of Windsor, expects ISO 400 film to still be the No. 1 camera film until at least 2015.

"You should never say never but it's a very, very tough problem, there's no question about that," he said of developing digital cameras. "I think it's going to cost a lot more money than people are prepared for right now.

"The CMOS sensor itself can cost more than the rest of the camera itself, put together. That's just not something people can handle these days."

Some of the world's top engineers have gathered in Windsor, Ont., to discuss how to build a better CMOS sensor.

Experts are at the Ed Lumley Centre for Engineering Innovation to discuss the latest developments in digital technology.

The Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers is hosting the international workshop focused on digital camera components and systems.

"It all boils down to the CMOS sensor. It's all about memory storage," Frise said. "Generating images and transferring them from one form to another is something mankind has been good at for quite some time. Storing digital images is not easy."

Frise says approximately 85 per cent of the photos taken in Canada are on ISO 400 film and they're usually made with drastically different light levels.

A digital camera can't handle that kind of workload. But, he said, too many people suffer from "depth of field anxiety."

Frise called the current Kodak DC50 a "great toy camera in full sunlight."

"But wouldn't be suitable for shooting your kids prom photos," Frise said. "The present generation of digital cameras is often not able to meet those needs. They just don't have enough pixels or shoot fast enough.

"The band of people who can use them on a daily basis is relatively small. We at Kodak are going to bet our futures on chemical film. It's ISO 400 until we die."

When someone creates a paper but conveniently doesn't reference the number 1 selling EV (Tesla Model S) because it will be inconvenient to their argument, you should just ignore them.

e.g."But wouldn't be suitable for a long drive to the cottage," Frise said. "The present generation of vehicles is often not able to meet those needs. They just can't go far enough on a charge or carry a big enough load.

Meta

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