Things are out of order in NJ. We're a third of the way through October, and I just finished a walk at midnight wearing shorts and a t-shirt. It's currently 70F and was hovering near 80F most of the day. Oh, and it was snowing. Sure, it was melting immediately on contact, since it's 70 and it was near 80 most of the day (as I mentioned). There must be some cold clouds up above.

@azbackpackr
Do you want people from HAZ to come inspect it? Determine the validity of your claims?

Anyway, Flagstaff NWS posted an image to their social media outlets and .gov website talking about the dry conditions that have emerged September 1. Flagstaff has had less than 15% of the normal 2.95 inches of rain they normal would have had from September 1 to October 10. I've enjoyed the dry weather, and being as this has been the first dry fall I have had since 2013, I love it!

Wow, what a difference a day makes. Waking up today I can see the White Tanks and the Estrellas. Sure, there is still dust in the air and the Estrellas look hazy, but I can see them. Yesterday, I couldn't even see South Mountain, and the buildings downtown were hazy!

I know it is a 7 day model estimate, and this is for late in the week, but it looks like November may bring the first storm of significance to most of California, and depending on what happens, maybe Arizona?

Flagstaff just passed 50 days with no precipitation, and temps have been much above average for most of that time. Despite an above-average monsoon and a relatively wet winter, we're now below normal for the year for precipitation. Snowbowl has delayed their opening twice, and now I think it's postponed indefinitely. No precipitation is bad for the plants and animals, but no Snowbowl is great for people who live in Flagstaff.

The 500 people who are only employed there when Snowbowl is open might disagree with that.

The City of Flagstaff website lists Snowbowl as a bullet point of attractions that contribute to the local economy during what is otherwise the "low season".

But I suppose seasonal employment for 500 people and the economic activity of the tourism industry is just a nuisance for the majority of Flagstaff residents who enjoy government-related jobs.

Let's take this on a few levels:

1) Snowbowl desecrates a mountain that is sacred to several Native tribes. That's not up for debate (though I'm sure non-native people on this site will still argue with this).

2) Traffic in Flagstaff on winter weekends, especially holiday weekends, is nearly intolerable. That's not all Snowbowl, but it's a huge contributor.

3) Seasonal, low-paying jobs (check out these salaries: https://www.glassdoor.com/Salary/Arizon ... 654114.htm) don't really help the economy that much. And if people can't find employment in Flagstaff, they should move. It's a small and very expensive town. There's little room for new housing. A smaller Flagstaff economy with fewer people would actually help a lot of people by driving down housing prices. Also, 20% of Flagstaff housing is vacation homes for people who live in the Valley. Maybe closing Snowbowl would encourage those people to stay in Phoenix and bring housing prices down more.

4) Are government jobs somehow less legitimate than Snowbowl jobs? Yeah, we'd probably be better off if we sold off all the public lands managed by offices in Flagstaff, closed NAU, closed the VA clinic and National Guard station, etc. Those guys are all moochers anyway.

5) Like it or not, the Snowbowl season is going to get shorter and shorter thanks to climate change. There's a delicious irony that each time that someone drives from Phoenix to Flagstaff in their gas-guzzling SUV to ski, they make a tiny (yeah, really tiny, but non-zero) contribution to ending skiing in northern Arizona someday.

It's always great when people who come to Flagstaff 3 times a year from the Valley tell us how it should be. Why don't you run for Flagstaff city council, Todd.

Jake is no longer active here, and I left Flagstaff well before the snow making began. That said, I have always had mixed feelings about the bowl. The expansion bothered me, but I can't change that. The snow making only bothered me as the water could be better used for other things, and drier winters require more snow making, but I don't live there, so that is a Flagstaff issue. I don't ski. Still, there are things in the reclaimed water that sewage treatment does not remove, but, again, I do not live there.

I did summit Humphrey and Agassiz a lot while there, in winter and the rest of the year, and I like the road and parking area year round, but in winter, the ski area can be a nightmare. I learned to get done well after the ski runs had emptied out, to avoid the traffic on 180. Milton and 66 are not much better when the traffic is up. I don't plan to go to Humphrey/ the Peaks this winter, as I want to do desert stuff instead. Stuff I skipped or missed last year. I might do Elden once more, but that isn't the Peaks to me.

The last few winters have been pretty good for the Bowl, and western Rim/ Flagstaff. This winter is forecast to be warmer and drier, so we will see. I recall that 2008 was forecast that way, and was wet from December to February. However, at this point in my life, I realize there are wet years, and there are dry, so being under is just part of "normal" variation, but the trend towards more extreme variations is correlated to climate change. This said, the last few winters have not favored the White Mountains, or central Mogollon Rim areas, which is the area of the Phoenix Watershed that drains into Lake Roosevelt. It would be preferable to have a wet winter for watershed utility, but this is not likely to be that year.

Southern California, Arizona, New Mexico, and southern Nevada probably will be drier than normal. Overall, we all know this happens. Snowbowl just got overzealous with their advertising to sell season passes and is having to now twice postpone their opening day because they can't make snow, and it hasn't snowed. It happens. This is really something worth paying attention to more in January, February, or March, not during what is still winter pre-season, in November.

At least there is now a pretty good storm rolling through the Sierra and northern 2/3rds of California, with impressive early snow and rain totals. 2 to 3 feet for the High Sierra, in spots over 10,000'. Not bad, for November. Will the Peaks or the Sierra Nevada have snow packs like we had 60 or 100 years ago, in 25 or 50 years? I think we all know what the models say.