A bit of certainty in an uncertain world

It feels like whichever way we turn right now we’re surrounded by uncertainty.

In the UK it’s impossible to escape Brexit, with Theresa May this week warning MPs that they have to decide whether to back her Brexit deal or open the door to more uncertainty. While overseas, the ongoing trade war between U.S.-China continues to create doubt in the global markets, and we continue to see a populist tide sweeping over Europe and LatAm. By some measures, we see that current degree of economic policy uncertainty are at unprecedented level compared to recent history.

While football is often accused of living in a bubble, we too are not immune from uncertainty. Debate is rife about the long-term impact of Brexit on our game, while each week we go into games knowing that the team who deserves to win the match will only take all three points around 60% of the time – such is the volatile nature of our low scoring sport.

Uncertain times call for steady heads and a long-term view. As leaders we must endeavour to instill certitude in order to guide our ship through choppy waters.

If you’re Valencia for example, it should be reassuring to know that you’ve been a little unlucky up until now and you’re likely to climb up the table between now and the end of the season.

Such predictive intelligence allows us to understand our risk or exposure and enables us to get ahead of the future planning process. It can help to take the emotion out of the room when making tough decisions.

Long term trends can change of course – even the smoothest roads still have the odd speed bump along the way. But a probabilistic approach is better than just taking the current context and assuming a steady state of return.

In an unpredictable sport in an unpredictable world, our long-term projections can provide a bit of certainty in an uncertain world.