News, ideas, thoughts, game breakdowns, in-depth statistics, and a whole lot of passion about the New England Patriots from a 20+ year season ticket holder. (Note: even this blog is done in official Patriots colors!)

Friday, November 26, 2010

Looks like those second half adjustments are much improved. The Patriots thrashed the Lions 45-24 yesterday, bludgeoning them 35-7 in the final 30 minutes and improving to 9-2 on the season, still tied with the Jets for first in the AFC East. (Trivia question #1: name the other game this year when the Patriots outscored their opponent 35-7 in the second half... answer below.) And that sets up the latest "NFL game of the year" on December 6, when the Jets come to town to play the Pats for conference and division supremacy.

The Patriots came out flat in the first half. Dropped passes, too much pressure by the Lions D-line, poor kickoff coverage, and too many yards and points given up to a team that shouldn't have been on the field with them. The Pats whimpered into the half down 17-10, and given the Lions domination of the line of scrimmage it could have been a lot worse.

When they went four-and-out on the first series of the second half, it looked like a dangerous opponent might just sneak out a win. But they were saved by Devin McCourty's fourth interception of the year; he cut in front of all-world receiver Calvin Johnson and saved the game for the Patriots. They took full advantage of the short field, this time going four-and-touchdown instead (short throw to Wes Welker) to tie the game. After the teams traded touchdowns, the Lions reverted to form: they missed a field goal, committed stupid penalties to stop their own drives and extend Patriots drives, and turned the ball over again, specifically another McCourty INT.

McCourty impresses every week, and might be making a legitimate push for NFL defensive rookie of the year. He returned the two INTs yesterday for 73 yards, and he might well have played every defensive snap this season for the Patriots. He doesn't get beaten deep, makes sure tackles in the pass and run games, and he plays a lot bigger than his size (5' 10", 193). His long reach and willingness to battle from the island position week after week make him a force to be considered by the other team. Not Pro-Bowl level by any stretch of the imagination, but it makes one wonder what might have been if Leigh Bodden (last year's best corner) didn't get injured in the pre-season.

Lions QB Shaun Hill finished with 285 yards, but he averaged a paltry 5.8 yards per attempt (versus 12.1 for the Patriots), and that was largely a function of the Patriots trying not to get beaten deep. The safety combo of James Sanders and Pat Chung is clearly their best, both players possessing great instincts and showing a keen understanding of the defense. And even with Brandon Meriweather being more of a trick-or-treat player, the secondary finished yesterday's game with 24 tackles, 6 passes knocked down, and of course the 2 INTs. They also had a few hard hits, to separate receivers from the ball, especially late in the game; though Chung needs to know he can't lower his head to hit the QB -- that was an easy penalty call.

You know your D-line is banged up when Kyle Love gets significant playing time, which he did. The rushing yards against them looked worse than they really were (127 yards and 4.8 yards per carry) -- there were several long runs that skewed the stats. Overall the D-line and linebackers did a decent job stopping the run, especially when you consider they spent most of the game in nickel to stop the pass. Vince Wilfork and Jerod Mayo stuffed most of the inside runs, and Brandon Spikes and the secondary got some plays that went outside. But they still need better containment on wide runs; Jermaine Cunningham is better than Tully Banta-Cain at this, but there isn't anyone who does it nearly as well as Mike Vrabel did for years.

And even though the Patriots D-line provided very little quarterback pressure, the biggest defensive problem continues to be the medium-middle passing zones. Mayo can't cover any decent back or tight end one-one-one, and Brandon Spikes is more of a run stopper. Gary Guyton can cover receivers, but he guesses wrong too often and those plays extend drives. And Rob Ninkovich and Pierre Woods won't be the answer. That might mean cheating up a safety to cover the middle-medium passes, but that would open them up to longer passes against teams with enough receiver talent -- which would be the bulk of their remaining schedule and just about any team they'd face if they get into the playoffs.

There isn't an easy answer to this puzzle; they will have to go with the players they have and hope they can out-scheme or out-guess their opponents. Thankfully, their offense can score with the best of them, so they can lean on that sometimes.

And speaking of offense, two men on the Patriots had absolutely stellar days yesterday: quarterback Tom Brady and offensive coordinator (in all but title) Bill O'Brien. Brady finished with a "perfect" quarterback rating of 158.3, and led the team on five consecutive touchdown drives to salt the game away. And for those worried about the lack of quick-strike offense without Randy Moss, the three long drives in that list were: 3 plays for 87 yards in 1:38; 5 plays for 64 yards in 2:15; and 7 plays for 84 yards in 4:25. Brady missed a few passes in the first half; but his pinpoint accuracy and spread-the-field mentality paid huge dividends after the break. He completed passes to seven different receivers, and it would have been eight if Brandon Tate could hold onto the ball.

And Bill O'Brien (or whomever is calling the plays these days) called a superb game. A great mix of run-pass, great plays called to overcome long yardage situations, and once the Lions were on the ropes he diced them up with mis-directions, power runs, and play-action calls for big chunks of yardage. His maturation as an offensive coordinator is evident in how they handled the transitions when Kevin Faulk was injured, when Randy Moss was traded, and when Logan Mankins returned to a then-cohesive O-line. And of course, an OC makes his name in how he calls a game, and yesterday was Bill O'Brien's best since the 2009 Tennessee blowout (Pats won 59-0).

Deion Branch (3 catches for 113 yards and 2 touchdowns), Wes Welker (8-90, 2 touchdowns), and Rob Gronkowski (5-65) beguiled the Lions with speed, quickness, and power. Branch didn't catch a ball until the second half, but he twisted and turned defenders on consecutive catches for 79- and 22-yard scores. Welker out-quicked the defense for drive-sustaining grabs all game long, and showed determination in muscling his way into the end zone on both touchdowns. Gronkowski beat the Lions run-blocking, in the short passing game, and up the seam for long gains. He has the power blow over defenders and the height and wingspan to outjump them.

The running attack was not dominant, except when it needed to be. The strength of the Lions defense is along the line, so the Pats didn't waste much time trying to run it down their throats. But the run-pass mix created enough of a threat to hold the linebackers and open up pass routes, and when the Lions dropped back to pass, BenJarvus Green-Ellis hammered them for important yards and scores. He ended up with 12 carries for 59 yards and 2 touchdowns, and both scores were hard inside runs where he battered defenders and drove them into the end zone. Danny Woodhead didn't have as good a running day as he did the past few weeks, but this was a day to pass anyway, so don't read too much into it.

And along the O-line it was a mixed bag. The outside rush got to Brady too often in the first half, and the inside did the same until they started double-teaming the tackles. The Pats couldn't handle the Lions inside size or outside quickness, and blitzes confused them more than they should at this point in the season. But give them credit for adjusting to shorter passes and play-action to slow down the rush; it worked to perfection in the second half.

On special teams, they gave up way too many good kickoff returns and didn't get any of their own. Brandon Tate needs to realize that when they kick him into a corner he should take it straight ahead and get what he can. He tried to cross the field too often, wanting to make a big play, and was regularly tackled short of the 20 yard line. And with Gostkowski gone, they are giving up longer returns -- might be time to do shorter kickoffs so the coverage can get to the ball carrier quicker.

So where does that leave us? 9-2 and tied with the Jets atop the AFC... seems like a good place to be. And the Gillette Showdown is 10 days away, should be a real barn-burner. Also, the extra days off couldn't have come at a better time, with Brady missing practice this week, he can use the additional time to rest his injured ankle. He'll need maximum mobility against the blitz-happy Jets, that's for sure.

Statistical Oddity of the Week: A 9-2 record guarantees that the Patriots will go yet another season without ever dipping below .500. The last time they were under .500 was when they lost the opener in 2003 (which put them at 0-1). So by the end of this year, it'll be 127 straight games without a losing record, obliterating the old record of 96 (trivia question #2: name the team that held that record). Enjoy the run while it lasts, folks... excellence like this does not come along more than once in a lifetime.

Weekly Water-cooler Wisdom: "Sure Brady was amazing and all, but why do I think McCourty saved their bacon with his pick early in the second half?"

Keep the faith,

- Scott

PS. 9-2!

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#1: The Patriots outscored the Dolphins 35-7 in the second half of their game in Miami.