What I can say is that this selection strategy certainly represents a huge shift in philosophy from what has been successful for them during their unprecedented seven-year domination of this interstate rivalry. I just don't understand it. Even if they win this match, I will still think it's a big mistake.

Not for one moment am I suggesting the Maroons can't lift on Wednesday night to square the ledger. On the contrary, Queensland is probably entitled to slight favouritism now they are back on home soil and playing in front of their parochial fans.

However, I do sense a little panic from the Queensland camp following their loss to NSW in Game I here in Sydney. I think the half-time score of 14-0 in favour of the Blues in that match has definitely spooked the Queenslanders. For the first time in a long time the Maroons are chasing the Blues, rather than setting the pace, when it comes to how these games should be played. I will explain in a moment.

In the past Queensland have boasted about loyalty and their "pick and stick" mentality when it comes to selecting teams. They often criticise NSW (quite rightly) for constantly changing their line-up in the search for a winning combination. Yet the Maroons have done exactly the same following their Game I loss.

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Over the past seven years, many have pointed to the outstanding playmakers and brilliant outside-backs that Queensland have fielded as the major reason for their success. Sure, these have been major factors. However, I think their success goes a little deeper than just a talented back line.

The Queensland model has been simple. Three or four big men playing in the front-row position, churning out the hard yards in the middle of the field. Willing, mobile back-rowers who will chase like bloodhounds, tackle until they drop, defiantly protect the smaller men in the defensive line by doing the bulk of their tackling, and execute decoys and running lines on the edges of the field in attack. Their brilliant playmakers - maybe the best combination in history - have been a massive asset. So too their big, fast outside backs. It's been the perfect team.

The most underrated factor in all this winning has been the successful formula of a four- or three-man rotation system for what I call ''genuine'' front-row forwards. This has given Queensland a huge advantage.

From 2006 to 2012, Queensland have used a three- or four-man combination in the front, from the group of Steve Price, Petero Civoniceva, Matt Scott, Ben Hannant, David Shillington and Jacob Lillyman. They even selected big Antonio Kaufusi for one Origin match when injuries rendered the others unavailable.

NSW has struggled during this period to select a group of big men who could match their Queensland rivals. Such is the changing nature of our game, many of the best front-rowers in the NRL competition are in fact Kiwis and Polynesians who do not qualify to play Origin football for NSW. The stocks have been low for the Blues.

The Blues have experimented with using more back-row forwards on the field to try and counter Queensland's ball movement by having a more agile and faster moving defensive line. This has worked OK for them in Sydney, when matches are played on a wet and slippery ANZ Stadium surface. However, it has not worked so well in Brisbane or under cover in Melbourne on the drier pitches. The Queensland big men have powered their way over the advantage line, taking control of the match, and the NSW forwards have struggled to handle them.

To be honest, I think the balance of power started to change for NSW last year when James Tamou and big Time Grant received their call-ups. Suddenly the Blues were back in the fight.

In their seven-year winning streak, Queensland used a four-man front-row rotation from the aforementioned list of players on nine occasions, for seven victories. They have used a three-man rotation, on 12 occasions, for nine victories. However, you must consider that two of these losses were in Game III dead rubbers where the series had already been decided. So, in actual ''live'' contests, where the result mattered, the three-man rotation produced nine wins in 10 matches. That's pretty decisive right there.

Despite the most successful winning run in Origin history, it would appear this philosophy on use of genuine front-rowers has now been abandoned.

Without warning, Queensland selectors reduced the squad to a two-man front-row line-up in Game I of this year's series. Only Matt Scott and David Shillington made the cut. They lost.

Queensland looked sluggish in this match and NSW looked a little quicker to the punch. So instead of going back to their winning formula of previous seasons and selecting more big men to dominate the advantage line and create space for their playmakers to weave their magic, the Maroons have gone in the completely opposite direction and followed the Blues' line of thinking.

Now Queensland have dropped to only one tradesman front-rower. Matt Scott is the only recognised front-rower in their side for this all-important match. I don't recognise the likes of Sam Thaiday, Corey Parker and Nate Myles as genuine front-rowers. Great players and great forwards, they can play those positions for their clubs with some degree of success, but the role of the "bash-and-barge big guy" is not really their preferred mode of play.

I know that in today's modern game they distinguish between back-rowers who play on the edge of the field, to those who toil away in the middle. But this is Origin football. A little bit of the old style goes a long way in this arena.

Now that Tamou and Grant are unavailable for NSW, I think Queensland had a great opportunity to restore their domination of the advantage line by reverting back to the successful combination of three or four powerhouses up front to bend NSW back and get the home crowd excited. As it stands though, if this game is going to be a battle of the back-rowers, then NSW has the decided advantage on the score of speed, mobility, footwork and passing skills. This could end up being the difference in the contest.

Being one-nil down in the series is not the time to try and reinvent the wheel. I think Queensland might be a little guilty here of getting too far away from what has served them so well in the past. If they are to win, Matt Scott will have to play long minutes and have an absolute blinder.

Having said that, with the disruptions to the NSW team, and the fact they are taking a couple of Origin rookies into the Origin cauldron, perhaps the scales are still slightly tilted in Queensland's favour. Even if Queensland wins though, I don't think it means they got the selections right.