Sunday, September 23, 2007

Final warning of War .

The probability of a limited scale war of the order of WWI has risen to 95% - 100% .Time of outbreak : Sept or Oct 2007 .

Scope :Far and Middle East

Scale : Limited nuclear . Limited biowar .

Duration : about 6-7 years .

Effects:1.Immediate curtailment of tourist industry . (Insurance will not cover flights, planes will be converted to military use .)

2. Volkewanderung .How bad can it be ?The sudden cessation of food aid from US/Canada/South America as the ships cease to arrive will cause an immediate food crisis .

A human can survive without food for about 5 days . The wave-front of desperate food hunters is then about 5 x TravelTime x time from a population center . But note that the first arrivals plunder the food supplies very thoroughly . Overland routes become death-traps as both sides battle to extinction .

The front wave is also thin .

That is why fast travel via coast-hugging boats enables the locusts to move faster than defense forces .This has happened before . During the collapse of the bronze age , the Peoples of the Sea were the only survivors . They could outrace the news of their coming and focus large forces .

In this scenario , the survivors of the desperate food seekers move down the East Coast and plunder lightly defended places like Jeffrey’s Bay . Do not think you are safe . One thing the English and the Vikings showed was that sea-borne attackers can arrive at any moment .

At present moment , the SA Navy cannot defend against this threat . This is not a deep-sea threat , but a coast-hugging threat . U-boats and frigates are no use . You need small boat navy . We can make them , but in the interval the coastal region will suffer .

Advice :Do not go near the Eastern Coast (ie Jeffries) during the next year . I am serious . This sort of crisis blows up quickly .Hundreds of millions of starving refugees can be stopped overland , but is impossible to stop in coasthugging mode .The starvation period is 5 days . The pulse is immediate and deadly .

And don’t think it can’t happen to you . That is what the Jews thought when the they saw “Arbeit macht frei”

South Africa:

Will it survive ?Yes , and quite handily as well .A result of the above will be a pulse of expansion across the continent . This will be contested by a weakened China , India , US , Russia and EU .

Stirring times .

South African casualty figures from crime alone is larger than the war in Iraq . If you add in the deaths from AIDS , it is much higher .

The AIDS problem is about to be solved . The crime problem can be exported (as the British did) . The resulting explosion will outcompete Chinese and Indian influences in Africa .

Unfortunately , the resultant mix looks more like the Draka .

An extremely aggressive outward pulse through Africa , fuelled by reduction in crime levels (ie we export our crooks) and relative reduction in death rate from AIDS .