Seeds, sure things, sadness all part of Selection Sunday

Published 4:00 am, Sunday, March 12, 2006

The odd sports competition known as Selection Sunday is upon us, with people wanting to know what will happen before it takes place this afternoon.

Like any major event, it has winners and losers, extensive TV coverage, plenty of pregame and postgame analysis and celebrations and complaints.

The one thing it lacks is any actual human competition. During the announcement of the 65-team NCAA Tournament field, the competitors will be in street clothes watching on the tube. Those who don't know whether they'll make the field or not still will have plenty of pregame jitters, though.

Here's a look at how today's "competition" might unfold:

The No. 1 seeds: Being a No. 1 seed does not mean much in a practical sense, because it is virtually the same as a No. 2 seed in its effect on the team's tournament success. But earning a No. 1 seed has become an award in itself, and there will be complaints by some of the No. 2 seeds.

Two Big East teams -- Villanova and Connecticut -- apparently will get No. 1 seeds despite losses in the conference tournament, and Duke should get the third despite its shaky finish, unless something weird happens today. The last top seed now looks like it will belong to Memphis, even though it plays in the relatively weak Conference USA.

How Texas and Ohio State do today will determine their fates. Either could sneak into a No. 1 seed, but No. 2 is more likely. Gonzaga has no shot at a top seed, and conceivably could drop to a No. 3 seed, although No. 2 is the most likely. Tennessee's chance for a No. 1 seed ended with its loss in the conference tournament, but the Vols should beat out Illinois for a No. 2 seed.

Here's how we see the rest of the field, ignoring the automatic berths and teams that are lead-pipe cinches to get at-large bids:

Who is in with minimal worry: Kentucky, Cal, Arkansas, Arizona, Wichita State, Indiana.

Who is right on the border and could go either way: Florida State, Northern Iowa, Michigan, Seton Hall, George Mason, Hofstra, Missouri State.

Bring out the Maalox for these seven teams, whose nerves will be frazzled by 3 p.m. today. More teams than usual are in this category, and they will be rooting hard for Florida in today's Southeastern Conference final, because if South Carolina wins, another at-large vacancy for a bubble team vanishes.

Florida State's late-season victory over Duke is its only hope. Michigan and Northern Iowa finished the season poorly after strong starts. Seton Hall was 9-7 in the Big East, but did not have a tough conference schedule. George Mason has a great RPI (26), but the mystery here is how the committee will weigh the absence of point guard Tony Skinn, who is suspended for one game. Hofstra won neither the regular season nor conference tournament in the Colonial Athletic Association, but it's an underrated conference.

Missouri State might be the most interesting case. Its inclusion in the tournament would put at least five teams -- and conceivably six -- from the Missouri Valley Conference into the field, and that might be hard to justify. Still, it's almost impossible to keep out a team with an RPI as good as Missouri State's No. 19, because no team has failed to get an at-large bid with an RPI better than 33.

What is a key factor?: Only four members of the 10-man selection committee are from one of the six power conferences, which means the so-called smaller conferences might get more consideration than usual.

Wrap-up: The Missouri Valley Conference could get as many as six berths and is nearly guaranteed to get four, which might be the same number as the Atlantic Coast Conference receives. That might lead to a re-evaluation of the RPI, because the MVC teams all have good RPIs for no apparent reason.