In the past it was generally accepted that economic growth, as
measured by gross domestic product (GDP), was linked to the
growth in consumption of raw materials and energy and in the
unpleasant consequences of consumption, namely pollution.

If such linkages were to last for many decades the
consequences for mankind would be disastrous. At present, only
approximately a quarter of the world population (concentrated in
the OECD countries) has reached a standard of living that can be
considered acceptable. Of the remaining three-quarters - spread
over more than 100 countries - only a small fraction has reached
a reasonable standard of living; the remainder are at a level
little above absolute poverty.

In the developing world (low-income economies!), GDP/capita is
at least 10 times smaller than that in the OECD countries, and
consumption of raw materials and energy is also at least 10 times
smaller. Such disparities in income will not last forever. The
economies of a number of very populous developing countries are
growing rapidly and - barring unexpected set-backs -their
GDP/capita will approach that of the developed countries. This
will result in great strains on access to raw materials and
energy, as well as an increase in pollution.

Efforts to delink GDP growth and consumption/pollution are,
therefore, a high priority in the strategies of many governments.
Figure 17.1 shows the evolution of primary energy consumption and
of GDP for OECD countries in the period 1973-1985 relative to
1973.

- a shift from traditional, inefficient non-commercial
fuels to such energy sources as electricity, liquid and
gaseous fuels, and processed solid fuels;

- the adoption of new and more energy-efficient
technologies. These trends have not so far spread
significantly to developing countries although successful
efforts are being made in some of them.

Projections of primary energy consumption give an idea of what
might happen in the future. However, depending on the assumptions
made, the results can be quite different (as shown in fig. 17.2).
More recently, projections such as the ones prepared by the World
Energy Council (WEC) tend to cluster at the lower end of such
projections (Goldemberg et al., 1987; WEC Commission, 1993).

As far as pollution is concerned, the situation is more
complex because some pollutants are associated with low income,
such as concentrations of particulate matter, and others with
high income, such as CO2 emissions, as shown in fig.
17.3 (World Bank, 1992). The goal of many governments is to
achieve an evolution over time of the type shown in fig. 17.4.

2. The prospects of success in delinking GDP and
energy

The way energy is used in different countries and the
efficiency of its use are usually quantified by an indicator
called energy intensity, that is, the ratio between energy
consumption (E) - measured in kilojoules (kJ), BTUs, or tons of
oil equivalent (toe) - and GDP measured in US dollars. Long-term
studies of the evolution of energy intensity in a number of
countries (Martin, 1988) indicate that this ratio climbs during
the initial phase of development when heavy industrial
infrastructure is put in place, reaches a peak, and then
decreases (fig. 17.5).

Fig. 17.3 Environmental indicators at different
country income levels. (Source Bank, 1992)

Fig.
17.3(a) Urban concentrations of particulate matter.

Fig.
17.3(b) Urban concentrations of sulphur dioxide.

Fig.
17.3(c) Municipal wastes per capita.

Fig.
17.3(d) Carbon dioxide emissions per capita

Only commercial energy consumption is considered in figure
17.5. Other factors besides technology, such as geography,
population, and history, play a role in the evolution of energy
intensity. This is why it is difficult to compare the evolution
of different countries. It is quite clear, however, that
latecomers in the development process follow the same pattern as
their predecessors but with less accentuated peaks: they do not
have to reach high E/GDP ratios in the initial stages of
industrialization because they can benefit from modern methods of
manufacturing and more efficient systems of transportation
developed by others. In other words, what was once considered an
iron link between energy and GDP growth is not a general feature
of modern economies. This was true even before the oil crisis of
1973, and rising oil prices only accelerated the pace of
structural change in the industrialized countries.

Fig.
17.4 Evolution over time of the growth in GDP and pollution

In contrast, as figure 17.5 shows, energy intensity in the
developing countries is increasing. The adoption of outdated
technologies foisted on them by the industrialized countries
seems to be part of the reason. Other reasons might be the
transfer of "dirty industries" or highly
energy-intensive industries (such as aluminium smelters) to
developing countries. A notable exception to the prevailing
increase among the developing countries is China, where energy
intensity is diminishing rapidly. As a whole, however, the energy
intensity of the world is decreasing, as shown in figure 17.6.

One way for developing countries to avoid environmental and
economic stress is to leapfrog the technologies used by
industrialized countries in the past. This means incorporating
energy-efficient technologies early in the development process.

Fig.
17.5 The evolution of energy intensity in various countries
(Source: Martin, 1988)

The result could be a decrease in the yearly growth of energy
consumption without hampering development. In Brazil, for
example, action planned for the period 1990-2010 is expected to
lead to a 30 per cent reduction in projected energy consumption
by the end of this time-span, compared with what it would be if
no action were taken (Brazilian Ministry of Infrastructure,
1991).

Brazil's energy system relies heavily on renewable resources
such as hydropower and biomass (fuelwood, charcoal, ethanol, and
biogas from sugar cane): 62.7 per cent of all energy used is
renewable and 37.3 per cent is non-renewable in the form of oil,
gas, and coal. Energy consumption in Brazil has grown quite
rapidly - 4.8 per cent a year in the past decade. At this rate,
total consumption would grow from 183.6 million metric tons of
oil equivalent (Mtoe) in 1990 to 473.6 Mtoe in 2010, i.e. a
2.6-fold increase. The new energy matrix of the Brazilian
government incorporates energy conservation, an increase in the
consumption of natural gas, and the continued use of biomass
coupled with modern technology (including gasification for
electricity generation using highly efficient gas turbines).
Under the new plan, the present consumption of 183.6 Mtoe would
grow to 386.6 Mtoe in 2010, which is 30 per cent below the
historical trend (table 17.1). This would result in savings of
US$85 billion in investments and a 30 per cent reduction in CO2
emissions.

Another way to look at the energy intensities of different
countries is to analyse the way they change not with time but
with GDP, as shown in table 17.2 and figure 17.7 (WRI, 1993).
East European countries were excluded because they use energy
very inefficiently. Energy intensity increases very slowly as
income per capita increases, which means that highly
industrialized countries have incorporated modern and efficient
technologies into their infrastructure.

3. The prospects of success in delinking GDP and
pollution

Appreciable success has been achieved in delinking GDP and
certain types of pollution as GDP increases. Figure 17.8 shows
the evolution of GDP and emissions of particulates, lead, and
sulphur oxides, which are all linked to fossil fuel consumption.
Reductions in nitrogen oxides have not been achieved (World Bank,
1992).

Another area where progress has been made is solid waste,
which is becoming increasingly important owing to problems of
disposal (WRI, 1993). Table 17.3 presents data on municipal solid
waste per capita for a number of countries. The amount of waste
per capita increases by a factor of 4 when one goes from low- to
high-income countries owing to the increasing importance of
packaging. In analogy with the energy intensity indicator one can
introduce a "solid waste intensity" indicator (the
ratio of solid waste to GDP) and plot this indicator as a
function of GDP. Figure 17.9 shows that countries with high per
capita incomes produce much less waste per unit of GDP than do
countries with low per capita incomes. Low-income countries
produce an inordinate amount of waste considering their per
capita incomes, whereas industrialized countries have
incorporated efficient technologies that have reduced waste.

Fig. 17.8 The
evolution of GDP and emissions of pollutants: OECD countries,
1970-1988 (Note: GDP and emissions of nitrogen oxides and sulphur
oxides are OECD averages; emissions of particulates are estimated
from the averages for Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, the United
Kingdom, and the United States; lead emissions are for the United
States. Sources: OECD, 1491; US Environmental Protection Agency,
1991)

A serious pollution problem in developing countries involves
indoor emissions of particulates and other pollutants originating
in fuels used for cooking (WHO, 1992). The results are shown in
table 17.4 and are quite alarming. As far as particulates are
concerned, table 17.5 shows that firewood gives off larger
amounts than coal briquettes. The SO2 concentrations
given off by various fuels are shown in table 17.6. This
demonstrates that a switch from coal to liquefied petroleum gas
(LPG) would represent enormous progress as far as SO2
emissions are concerned. Regarding particulates, the same would
be true if firewood were to be replaced by LPG.

Table 17.4 Indoor air concentrations of pollutants in
developing countriesa

Pollutant

Concentration

WHO
daily exposure guidelines

Total suspended particulates
(TSP)

1 · 120 mg/m³

0.12 mg/m³

CO

10 · 50 mg/m³

10 mg/m³

NO2

0.1 - 0.3 mg/m³

0.15 mg/m³

Benzo-alpha-pyrene

1 · 20 m
g/m3b

0.001 m
g/m³

Source: WHO (1992).

a. India, Nepal, Nigeria, Kenya, Guatemala, and Papua
New Guinea.

b. At these concentrations there is a link with cancer
in 1 out of 100,000 people after a life-time's exposure.

Table 17.5 Concentrations of total suspended
particulates in kitchens from various fuels

Fuel

Concentration
(mg/m³)

Firewood

0.79

Briquettes

0.49

LPG

0.19

Biogas

0.18

Outdoors

0.18

Source: WHO (1992).

Table 17.6 Concentrations of SO2 in kitchens from
various fuels

Fuel

Concentration
mg/m³

Coal briquettes

0.49

Firewood

0.04

Biogas

0.02

LPG

0.02

Outdoors

0.01

Source: WHO (1992).

Fig. 17.10
Strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions

4. Conclusions

In developing countries, pollution reduction seems to be
closely connected to modernization. Growth along traditional
lines would produce unbearable amounts of pollution, but the data
show that industrialized countries have achieved important
reductions in emissions per unit of GDP. This evidence is not so
dramatic in the case of emissions causing the greenhouse effect
(mainly CO2). Greater progress in the future will
require a combination of the strategies described in figure
17.10.

Note

1. The World Bank classification of countries is as follows:

 Low-income economies are those with a GNP
per capita of US$610 or less in 1990.

 Middle-income economies are those with a GNP
per capita of more than US$610 but less than US$7,620 in
1990. A further division, at GNP per capita of US$2,465 in
1990, is made between lower-middle-income and
upper-middle-income economies.

 High-income economies are those with a GNP
per capita of US$7,620 or more in 1990.