A word with the water: Katie Ledecky at one with her sport, by Patrick B. Kraemer

Katie Ledecky and Conor Dwyer claimed victory in the 200 freestyle and Dana Vollmer went sub-57 in the 100 butterfly on the opening night of the USA Swimming Pro Series in Mesa.

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Comments

aswimfan
April 15, 2016

Good to see veteran Dwyer swimming fast.

He (and Mellouli) was lucky to get out so quickly from Bob Bowman’s training squad. Agnel was not so lucky.

I am not too optimistic with Franklin’s chances in 200 free. She should have capitalised and made millions from London and Barcelona, instead of going for “NCAA experience”. Well, everyone has different ideals, maybe she or her family is rich enough she didn’t need the money.

aswimfan
April 15, 2016

And for anyone (and I mean, overly patriotic gung-ho Americans) who are projecting great things for Phelps in the freestyle relays in Rio, I hope they re-think.

American top squads, inducing Ledecky, Dwyer, Phelps, Schmitt, etc just completed their high altitude training. And usually, they swam very fast every time after they come down from high altitude, and Ledecky, Dwyer and Schmitt showed that, but not Phelps in 200. Age may contribute to the fact that he can’t swim fast every time,so we’ll see how he does in the trials against up and coming young mid-d (Haas, Conger, etc).

RSASprinter
April 15, 2016

@aswimfan,

I agree with you re Phelps, but not for the same reasons. Since his comeback, Phelps has not looked his normal self on freestyle. I am sure you will agree. If you do not, it would be good to hear why, but there are plenty reasons as to why I say it.

Firstly, the times he has swum, even when rested have not been of the same caliber as his butterfly. I will not agree that fitness is causing it, as last year he swam 1.52 200 fly.

Secondly, that last 50 free on that 200 IM at NATS last year was .7 seconds slower than RL’s world record pace. Strange for a man who used to drill everyone off the last wall. His pedigree was so good on the 3 other strokes, but if you watch him on free, its almost as if he is not moving forward with the same loping he used to.

I think that if he gets the technique part of his free back to how it was, he will be a good shot on the 200 free.

g l
April 15, 2016

@asswimfan
Because it is abnormal to expect ‘great things for Phelps in the freestyle relays in Rio’? Is that it? Do you need to take a shot at people to gain attention every time? What is your excuse for being a ‘overly patriotic gung-ho’ Aussie swimming fan? Why don’t you give us your prediction on Phelps 200 free time? Let’s hear it.
BTW, there is nothing wrong with Franklin ‘NCAA experience’. Damn i need a coffee.

RSASprinter
April 15, 2016

g l,

I would imagine he makes those statements because he is 6 seconds from his best. Perhaps there is more to come from Phelps on the 200 free, but the way i see it, everyone had a go at Yannick Agnel after he was only 3 seconds down from his best.

He also does go on to give an explanation of age being a factor, which seems to me like he is open to the idea of Phelps having a great swim and time at Trials.

As for Franklin, you are right, nothing wrong with her NCAA experience, if you mean for her as a person, to experience it, but lets face it, she has not been the same swimmer she was in 2012.

There are probably many factors that attribute to that as well, but how many times have we seen world class athletes move from their coach to another, and then have a change in performance. It is not uncommon.

Please do not think that i am “having a go” at the US team, that could not be further from the truth. They are my favourite team, barring RSA’s small Olympic team.

aswimfan
April 15, 2016

RSAsprinter,

I totally agree with you assessment on Phelps’ freestyle. I have watched Phelps’s swims since his very first final in 2000 trials, and despite his 200 free WR in 2007 and 200 free 2008 Olympics gold, I don’t think his freestyle is anywhere nearly as natural as his fly to him.

So, while his fly is still good and looks good, his free somewhat worsens, which is understandable, with age.

TommyL
April 15, 2016

@ aswimfan,

where did you read that they just completed an altitude camp?

MP stated at the press conference that after this meet they are heading for a 6-week camp in Colorado.

So if you are saying they just came back from a camp and MP is saying they are going to one this would mean that they are spending 8-9 weeks in a row at altitude.

One is about Dwyer and Ledecky story at high altitude camp before Mesa and an article right after that is about Phelps and so I mistook that Phelps was training with them too. I guess I am wrong, and I am rescinding my statement earlier and the 1:48 is not too bad considering he hasn’t been to high altitude camp.

g l
April 15, 2016

Save it aswimfan.
So, what is your prediction?

aswimfan
April 15, 2016

g l,

You accused me of saying/writing things I never did, and when I asked you where I wrote those things, all you can say is “save it”?

Here, let me remind you again:

“My excuse for being a ‘overly patriotic gung-ho’ Aussie swimming fan” ??
When did I ever make crazy predictions for Australian swimmers’ chances in Rio?
Show me.

And where did I ever say
“there is something wrong with Franklin ‘NCAA experience’???

Oliver Kramer
April 15, 2016

I am pretty sure we will see fast freestyle times by MP in Omaha. 1:48 is a decent swim in april considering his heavy training. He just had to adjust his stroke and working on the small things. So no reason to worry, just watch his interviews, he is on the right way.

Not to forget: I’m glad to see fast times by Dana Vollmer! Sjostrom’s gold is not 100% sure 😉

aswimfan
April 15, 2016

Oliver Kramer,

1:48 is actually a pretty good swim for MP during his heavy training. I thought he had just came down from high altitude camp, that’s why I said it wasn’t good.

However, on Vollmer vs. Sjostrom I will just have to disagree with you 🙂

Ger
April 15, 2016

If Vollmer had spotted the walls better she’d have been a few tenths better last night. All in all, another solid improvement. I think her previous best was 57.6 for the season.
Phelps was very happy after the race. His interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7YC59kj95do

Open verdict on the GOAT’s freestyle. I am making this up but maybe there is a bigger difference between in-season swims and tapered swims for the older athletes? (Because the training is a harder toll than for young’uns, but come competition it’s equalised).

Dana looks good, though some considerable way off Sjostrom; and it’s very nice to see more evidence of Schmitt’s revival.
What can be said about Missy?

Also presumably there will have a big SwimVortex “Olympic Predictions Challenge” where FurryCurmudgeon can justify his curmudgeonness, ASF can let his “Aussie gungho spirit” fly free and Roy can finally win the respect of all with his spot on predictions about Ledecky when she goes 14:30. (PS excuse the male pronouns)

aswimfan
April 15, 2016

Again g l,

You accused me of saying/writing things.

Now, show me where I said/wrote those things, or you can “save it” as you are a LIAR.

aswimfan
April 15, 2016

stabilo,

There’s no women 1,500 in the Olympics, so it is not possible for Ledecky to swim that 14:30 🙂

What I like about this swimming site is that most commenters are critical and fair when commenting on swimmers’ performances regardless of nationalities, unlike in some other swimming sites where “gung ho patriotism” is the order of the day.

stabilo
April 15, 2016

Well I will definitely fail the predictions because initially my facetious remark was “7:45 for the 800” and then I corrected it because my Friday brain said there’s no 800 in the Olympics for anyone. D’oh.

Anyway the more I think about Dana’s time the better it seems, and it will be interesting to see if she can continue the downward trajectory of times.

As a Brit, gung ho patriotism is not really justified or allowed :). Peaty will wreck the 100Brst, and otherwise I’m pessimistic for most events.

Back to swimming. Even if Phelp does 46 for his split in Rio, much slower than London, it would still be a great help for the Americans.

g l
April 15, 2016

1.46*

g l
April 15, 2016

stabilo,
haha! For the Brits, i think you need to do the opposite, you need to be more “gung ho” when it comes to sports.

RSASprinter
April 15, 2016

FYI. Phelps has never swam a 200 relay split faster than his individual race at any major competition since 2004.

For Phelps to swim 1:46 in a relay, then, given his track record with the 4×200, he would more than likely have to be 1:45. There are some cases. 2007 WC in Australia, where he swam 1:43.8 then backed that up with a 1:45.2 i think? (forgive the splits, no time to look them up)

Predictions for Olympics should only be done after the heats of that race. Too many factors between now and then.

Great time for Vollmer, I was pessimistic when she returned and only swam 1:00. What a superb effort she has made to get herself back to that kind of shape so soon.

aswimfan
April 15, 2016

g l,

I haven’t even made any Olympics prediction for Cameron McEvoy who has finished trials, and you asked for my prediction for Phelps?
And when I make my prediction for Phelps, it would certainly be much less optimistic than many in some swimming sites who predicted 1:44 for him.

By the way, I don’t take any of your word as truthful at all as you are a proven liar.

g l
April 15, 2016

Didn’t he swim.1.44 at 2012 London for his split? I don’t know, i don’t think he could do 1.43 individual then.
Vollmer looks good, not as good as Sjostrom of course, but good for the American’s relay.

g l
April 15, 2016

I’m not gonna go down to that level aswimfan. I’ve seen your comments on this site and many other sites for years.
Clearly i struck your nerve, but Just so you know, other people can also get annoyed as you do for the same things you call them.

aswimfan
April 15, 2016

g l,

You have already gone down to that level by accusing me of things I have never said or written.

I gave you the benefit of the doubt and chance to prove that I am wrong and asked you to show me of what you accused me of. If you are right, you can show me, no?
Then I apologize and can shut up.

Clearly I hit your nerve by not being a strong supporter of American swimmers as you like me to.

g l
April 15, 2016

” and chance to prove that I am wrong”
That’s the level.
Now, people here must be really annoyed with this exchange already. You know what you have said, i know what i have said. Let’s move on.

aswimfan
April 15, 2016

g l,
I agree, I know what I have said, and I know what you have said:
You accused me of things I never said/wrote.

So now we have established you are a liar.

Let’s move on.

g l
April 15, 2016

if it makes you feel better ;).

RSASprinter
April 15, 2016

Phelps did not swim the 200 individually in London, so that comparison is not available g l.

Thanks to Ger for providing the interview. You can see how he backs off the legs off the wall at the 100, and immediately the momentum is lost.

Also, on the 2nd 50, i see a bit of a flat spot once his right arm has entered, i think that is what is causing me to believe the technique needs a tweak

Please let me know your thoughts on that.

aswimfan
April 15, 2016

g l,

And I want to return the favor
Phelps will win 100/200 fly and 200 IM all in world records, and he will swim 46, 49 and 1:43 in relays to help USA sweep relay golds.

I hope that makes you feel better.

g l
April 15, 2016

I know RSASprinter. Hence i said he couldn’t have swam 1.43, if he did.
I could not see when popped up in that video, but yes, i can see what you meant before that.

aswimfan
April 15, 2016

RSAsprinter,

Yes, I saw that he was still a little bit further away from the wall when starting to make the turn.

g l
April 15, 2016

However RSA, as you are a swimmer, i’m sure you want to say something more than just his technique here. It’s not quite simply just the timing, is it?

RSASprinter
April 15, 2016

g l – I am not too sure its anything but timing. These are the facts:

1. He is the greatest of all time
2. He has always been technically sound
3. He is a hard worker
4. He is still fit, and swimming world class times

My point is that sometimes, after a come back, little things (like timing) can be off and make a big difference. As aswimfan pointed out, his fly has always looked so much more natural.

There were often times where i did the double, and my butterfly was within 4-5 seconds of my 200 free, purely because my freestyle had something wrong with it.

RSASprinter
April 15, 2016

I have just watched the interview of Phelps after his 200 free. Around 7:40 he actually goes into detail about how his stroke feels off, and how after he breathes there is a break in his kick. That would be almost exactly where i pointed out there seems to be a flat spot.

We can see it, he knows it, and he will fix it. If he can get so close to his old form on fly, I would imagine, with some tweaking,he could do the same on free. IF he can do that, and have the fitness to go through all the rounds, he CAN win the 200 FS in Rio.

Yozhik
April 15, 2016

It is very difficult to make judgements about Missy Franklin’s form based on in-season times. Her 200m fs times in the first half of 2013 season (her best one) were worse than she shows this year. And then was 1:56 at Nationals and 1:54 in Barcelona. It looks like yesterday she consciously decided to swim B-final avoiding direct confrontation with Ledecky and Schmitt. But I understand those who want to see at least some hint that she is coming back.
Nice race by Allison Schmitt. She was just a little bit off her best time last season. It gives some hope that she will be at least under 1:56 (and may be even faster) this summer.

aswimfan
April 15, 2016

Yozhik,

Do you think Missy will get back to 1:54 in the Trials/Rio?
She has been training at altitude with her old coach for a year now.

Dave Nicholson
April 15, 2016

It’s really hard to read the tea leaves of this meet and extrapolate Trials times, so I wont.

I will say:
1. Vollmer looked great. Her turn was terrible but her swimming between the flags was absolutely terrific.
2. Worrell looks a bit lost in an LCM pool. I don’t think she spends a lot of time in the LCM format. The anachronistic NCAA, ruining more talent every year.
3. Very solid time by Dwyer. Dwyer was so terrible last year, it’s nice to see him perform well.
4. US men’s sprint breaststroke… yikes. Maybe Licon and Cordes will step up at trials, we’ll see.
5. Meili is one of the more under-appreciated American swimmers. That’s a serious time. She and King are going to have a battle at trials. The US W medley could use the help.
6. I personally doubt Franklin will ever reattain her previous heights in freestyle.
7. So nice to see Schmitt swim a solid in-season times.
8. MP is MP. If some of you guys want to doubt him, go right ahead. I’ll personally keep quiet.
9. Clary looked awful. Again.

Eugene Chc
April 15, 2016

aswimfan, coach Schmitz totally unprofessional.
in 2012 he changed her freestyle, and it cost two medals at the 100(maybe even gold) and 200 free.

aswimfan
April 15, 2016

Eugene,
Are we absolutely sure it was purely coach Schmitz’s fault that Missy changed her crawl technique?
Wasn’t there a possibility that her growth spurt and physiological changes as a teenage girl necessitated the technique change?

aswimfan
April 15, 2016

NCAA may or may not have ruined Worrell’s talent, but her start, turn and underwater is fantastic.

Blah Blah
April 15, 2016

Keep blaming missy’s coaches etc. but they are not to blame. Missy is simply past her prime. Weird to say about someone so young, but I’ve said it months ago, and before that, and I think we will see that it is true. Hopefully she proves me wrong, but I highly doubt it.

aswimfan
April 15, 2016

Blah Blah,

Better be careful saying Missy is past her prime.
Patriotic squad could go after you 🙂

Dave,
As you said, it is hard to have a deeper reading just based on the first day of this meet. I’ll wait until the end of this meet to see who’s on form and who’s not. Usually, I will have much better grasp of the landscape after Santa Clara meet.

My observation from the first day though:
1. Not many NCAA top swimmers participating here (no CAL, Texas, Florida and Georgia teams – men and women). I hope a lot more will be in Charlotte and I’m sure most will be in Santa Clara, after which we’ll have much better picture before the trials.
2. One NCAA swimmer that impressed me yesterday was Ella Eastin. This year may come one year too early for her to qualify, but we’ll see.
3. Simone Manuel seems to have better endurance, but her technique is still not as efficient as other worlds top sprinters.
4. It does seem to me on average US swimmers swim more events compared to swimmers in other countries. I can’t be certain if this is true or not, it’s just a surface observation where I see same swimmers popped up in two or three different events in one day.
5. Allison Schmitt surprised me with her 1:56. If she is in the same training cycle as Phelps’ then this is a very good news for US 200 free chances and only made their claim for 4×200 gold even stronger.

aswimfan
April 15, 2016

Dave,
Seem you know much (well, much better than I do for sure) about US swimmers, what do you think of Michael Andrew, the most exciting US young prospect?
We have heard so much about him in the past few years, and he was doing pretty well last year, winning golds and few medals in Junior worlds.
But this year he hasn’t exactly set the world on fire and we haven’t seen much improvement from him, CMIIW.
From very little that I understand of USRPT which his training is based on, swimmers don’t get broken down during training, so I don’t know what to make of him.

Yozhik
April 15, 2016

Aswimfan, it doesn’t matter what I think. 1:57.69, 2:00.48, 1:58.01, 2:00.51, 1:56.96, 1:59.20 – that is Missy Franklin in January-April 2013 living in Colorado. What would you say if I asked you that time about Franklin’s prospective to win World Championship with 1:54 time? Sure you could say that she had a prior great Olympic Year and that could guarantee good form. But when returning to your question I can say that 2015 was not bad at all for freestyler Franklin – 1: 55.49 and 53.68. It is not personal bests but are very respectful times considering all changes happened in her life that year. Sorry, I cannot answer your question, I don’t have enough information to form my opinion. What I am not sure about is if Franklin has any interest in 200m freestyle individual competition. Very high bar set by Sjostrom and Ledecky, very clear intentions of a group of strong swimmers all over the world makes the success at this race questionable for Missy. Plus there is a schedule issue. It is very possible that she focuses on two back style races and three relays.

aswimfan
April 15, 2016

I think Franklin is currently broken down in heavy training. So in that light, 1:58 yesterday is a decent time for her. How did I arrive in such conclusion?
I have just watcher her in 100 back prelims, and she looked sluggish, her start is as bad as ever, but her between the walls is also not sharp.

It is either that, or Blah blah’s proposition. We’ll see the truth comes Trials.

aswimfan
April 15, 2016

I have written above that it seems on average US swimmers swim more events. For example, this morning Manuel swam in 50 free and 100 back, yesterday she swam in 200 free and 100 fly. I wonder if swimming more events actually help her improve her sprinting.

easyspeed
April 15, 2016

Hi. Overly patriotic gung-ho American swim fan here. Just wanted to remind everyone we are the best.

Moving on..

I agree with aswimfan’s criticism of Franklin and the NCAA; a really foolish move on her part and she put herself in a hole and is having trouble climbing out. Having said that, she is back with the coach that brought her success and training at altitude again. Is it too little too late? Only in Rio will we know for sure. I predict she will improve in LC but that will only amount to “good” and not “great.” I also think KL and AS are going to make the team in the individual for 2free but MF will be on the relay and perform decently.

As for the GOAT, he has acknowledged some difficulty with freestyle. Maybe it’s a technique issue as others have noted above? Can’t be conditioning because he is clearly in shape now (vs. 2012). Don’t think he will do the 2free individual in Rio, tho he could qualify. It’s simply a matter of not wanting to do too many events this time. Expect Phelps to put down the fastest 2free time of the Olympics leading off the 800 free relay.

If Ledecky is on point she wins everything easily. I feel obligated to point out that nothing is certain- if she is sick, or injured, or has a mishap such as goggles falling off, she might falter. But assuming everyone is at their best, it’s KL all the way.

easyspeed
April 15, 2016

Oh- to answer aswimfan’s question above: hate to say it but Michael Andrew is going to be a disappointment unless some changes are made. USRPT is a terrible training method. I like the kid but feel sorry for him too. He really needs to find a real coach and get proper training before it’s too late. He has talent.

g l
April 15, 2016

easyspeed and ASF,

BAYAREA SWIM said this: ” Reality is for losers!
USA swimmers are WINNERS!
We will STUN Australia, Missy will rise to the occasion and Weitzeil will STUN Campbell, lemme tell you!”

What is your thought on that? 😉

Holy … ! i didn’t know it was that bad, guys.

Craig Lord
April 15, 2016

It’s loud-mouth clap-trap and should be ignored, g l.

Yozhik
April 15, 2016

FYI. Just another fun paper exercise. Since we anyway are ranking swimmers during the season, regardless there stage of preparation for the major event then why not to do the same for relays.
On paper ( 🙂 ) W4x200
1. CHN
2. USA -1.27
3. AUS -2.03
4. NED -4.32
5. CAN -5.88
6. SWE -6.39

easyspeed
April 15, 2016

g l, I have no idea what you are talking about. What is “Bay Area Swim.” A swim team?

Try to be more coherent in your posts.

aswimfan
April 16, 2016

easyspeed,
re:Michael Andrew, I hope we will get to see more out of him, he is indeed very talented. You don’t get to break so many NAG records in so many events if you have little talent, regardless of types of training.

g l, not sure what you are writing about, so as Craig has suggested, I am not taking the bait.

aswimfan
April 16, 2016

Yozhik,
Thanks for providing us with the landscape of w4x200. The list confirms what I have hinted in a few occasions (with USA on top and China and Australia fighting for medals), and since all of those countries have completed their trials with the exception of USA, that is also my prediction of final position in Rio, with USA exchanging position wth Chn, so USA for gold, China for Silver and AUS for bronze with possibility of medal upsets from Ned, Can and Swe.

Yozhik
April 16, 2016

Asf, one of the reason I did this exercise is to show how important Franklin’s contribution can be. To be prohibitive favorites as many predict here the American team needs Franklin to swim two seconds faster. This fact makes some people nervous, after watching Missy’s low raw speed actions. Not tiredness at the end of the race worries me but absence in her style something firm, crispy.
Similar situation we have with the role of McKeon in Australian 4×100 fs. Last week she assured that everything is fine in this department.

g l
April 16, 2016

Sorry ladies and gentlemen. This post is not about swimming. I apologize for that. I don’t even know why i’m doing this but what the heck, my last post.

And Craig, you probably delete this post before others see it, but i think you should know it too.

That *Bayarea Swim* is Aswimfan. He’s trying to portrait the “gung ho” Americans today in other swimming site.

Aswimfan, i really hope you are not REALLY this sick. You create many screen names here, change IP addresses , and PRETEND someone else to fight with people, take a cheap shot, or make you look good.

But when you look at those posts from *Bayarea swim*, you know right away who wrote them. You can look them up.

NORMALLY his posts are like these, from a few days ago:

“Phelps was never a “natural” freestyler.
When you get older, your “not so natural” stroke will deteriorate first while your natural stroke (for Phelps, it’s fly) stays longer.”

“Phelps (and Bowman’s training squad) ALWAYS swam fast, often close to their PBs, right after high altitude training camp.
So you can conclude whatever you like”

“USA swimmers are WINNERS!
We will STUN Australia, Missy will rise to the occasion and Weitzeil will STUN Campbell, lemme tell you”

Guys, if he took a shot at you, and someone *agreed* with it, it was probably him with other screen names and new IP address. This is just sick.

aswimfan , apparently this is so important for your life. I’m out of here.

aswimfan
April 16, 2016

Yozhik,

I think at this point, USA doesn’t even need Missy Franklin to be favorite for gold, as both Schmitt and Vollmer seem to be getting back to their best.

Let’s say USA field Ledecky – Schmitt – Vollmer – fourth swimmer (could be Leah Smith or Shanno Vreeland either whom is faster than any other nation’s fourth swimmer). But Franklin at 1:55 would of course be consolidate a stronger claim.

aswimfan
April 16, 2016

g l,

You seem to have taken this personal dislike of me to a new level.

Not sure what all the rants you wrote above is about. Hardly decipherable.

For some unknown reason, you seem to be personally offended by my posts in this site which have never had anything to do with you.

Yesterday we have established you are a liar, and now you are saying you are “out of here”, I hope this time you are not lying.

Craig Lord
April 16, 2016

g l I have no idea what happens on other sites in comment, esp when it comes to the sharp end of silliness: as I suggested, such gung ho-from-guts comments are there to be ignored, not highlighted. aswimfan can answer for himself on your change of multiple IDs. No such reader as the one you describe exists on this site – and that is what I’m responsible for; and where I see multiple IDs, the shadows have been removed; and multiple attempts at multiples, after warnings issued, have led to a lifetime ban 🙂 What other sites do and allow is entirely a matter for them.

Yozhik
April 16, 2016

Asf, sometimes I am getting confused when you are joking or talking seriously. When was Dana Vollmer fast 200 fs swimmer and what was her time?

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