Wednesday, September 14, 2011

PPP NATIONAL POLLING

Normally, and understandably, I would not write a blog about a poll that showed Mitt losing by a large margin. But, this new PPP poll out this morning, has some good stuff in it for Mitt. Let's take a look

** Differences with the PPP poll of 3 weeks ago......August 24, 2011 This poll had a higher MOE of 4.4 % compared to earlier 3.8 %, because of smaller sample.

This poll had a sample of 76 % conservative or very conservative. The earlier poll had 52 % conservative or very conservative....a statistically significant sample size difference of + 50 % favoring Perry supporters. However,

** Other anomalies: PPP samples 79 % Republicans and only 19% independents, even though over 20 of the GOP primaries are OPEN and Independents are 30 + % of the voters. This is significant as we will see below.

Now, as to the poll, given the points above Perry still leads Romney by 12 % points , in a two way race, closer to the wide MOE , but still double digits. But, Romney has cut the earlier gap by 25 % after debate 1. We'll soon see the results of debate 2.

Romney leads Perry 43-39 % % among Independents in a two way race, with a big MOE

Perry leads Romney by 27 -23 % AMONG GOP VOTERS OPPOSED TO ENDING MEDICARE, but Perry leads Romney by 43 - 5 % AMONG GOP VOTERS IN FAVOR OF ENDING MEDICARE. According to PPP, "..this accounts for much of Perry's overall lead." This is electoral college suicide, my friends.

So, if you look within the numbers, the trending is pretty good for Mitt. And these numbers were before Monday's debate. So, we should see some further favorable trending