Florida politics, policy, and plain-spoken analysis by Gary Fineout.

Gambling

March 27, 2017

After watching the prelude for weeks, the Florida Legislature and its Republican leaders will finally put pen to paper this week (so to speak) and release their detailed spending plans for the coming fiscal year.

After listening to leaders in the House and Senate discuss their priorities, the expectations are that the rival budgets could be widely divergent in what they cut, what they keep and what they enhance.

There are a multiple reasons for that, whether it's Senate President Joe Negron's push for increased money for state universities, or House Speaker Richard Corcoran's insistence that the state shutter its economic development agency Enterprise Florida.

But less noticed is that the House, Senate and Gov. Rick Scott have chosen to include information that supports their arguments, while seemingly sidestepping other salient points. This could influence the tenor of the debate that is about to intensify.

So it might be worthwhile and step back for just a second to recall how everybody got here and what's important to remember for the budget battle that still lies ahead.

So here's a few things to understand:

DON'T CALL IT A DEFICIT: There is no budget deficit this year. Plain and simple.

To understand the underlying budget situation, it's important to realize this. In Florida a deficit occurs when the state collects less money than what is needed to pay for things that are in the budget.

Florida's tax collections are in fact growing. The main budget account - known as the general revenue account - is expected to grow in the current fiscal year by 4.4 percent, or $1.23 billion. This same account, which relies on a variety of tax sources but primarily the state's sales tax, is expected to grow $1.16 billion - or 3.9 percent - in the fiscal year that starts on July 1. That's a stark difference from the depths of The Great Recession when legislators were required to cut spending (or in 2009 raises taxes) to make the math work.

So then where does the confusion lie?

Well, let's start with a document called the Long-Range Financial Outlook. Thanks to current Sen. Tom Lee, the voters in 2006 approved a constitutional amendment that requires the development of an outlook that looks out over a three-year period and reviews both sides of the ledger - the expected spending and the revenue coming in.

The outlook comes out once a year. The one approved in September found that when balanced together legislators had a windfall of only $7.5 million for the 2017-18 fiscal year. And the economists and analysts who put it together warned of a "structural imbalance" that could create a sizable budget gap in the years to follow. That has sparked talk of deep budget cuts including a House plan to cut at least $1.4 billion alone in the coming year.

But it's important to remember this budget gap is a summary of both revenues - and expenses.

The long-range outlook put together assumes nearly 50 different expenditures - and that greatly impacts the bottom line.

Let's start with tax cuts: The overall outlook assumes that there will be $254 million in recurring tax cuts in each of the next three years. This is based on a historical average in recent years, but the point is this, part of the projected gap is based on the assumption that legislators will continue to cut taxes, which adds to the potential shortfall, which helps trigger the need for cuts elsewhere to close that gap.

The budget shortfall or gap that is projected to occur is also driven by a long line of other spending decisions where economists plugged in the numbers based on historical decisions made by legislators: The outlook assumes a $1 billion reserve on top of other existing budget reserves. It assumes that legislators will fully fund increased enrollment in public schools, pay for increases in Medicaid, and set aside more than $400 million over the next three years to pay for increased costs associated with the state employee health insurance program.

But there's more - the outlook assumes an increase of per-student funding above enrollment growth, grants to libraries and museums, local government park grants, and in the out years money spent on replacing a law-enforcement radio system and the replacement of Florida's accounting system.

So what does that mean? In reality, the budget debate is one about choices.

Do legislators choose to keep cutting taxes? Do they choose to keep spending money on certain things? Do they choose to make deep cuts due to a philosophical belief that government is too big and too expensive? Do they refuse to revisit past decisions that contribute to their structural imbalance - including for example - decisions to give out tax credits to various businesses. This could include anything from the insurance tax credit that is targeted by the Senate, or the tax credit scholarship program that continues to grow. (The amount of tax credits available for the scholarship program is projected to increase from $559 million this fiscal year to nearly $699 million next year.)

THE SCHOOL TAX DEBATE: If there is one item that could derail the entire budget process it's the thorny annual dilemma over school property taxes.

Here's the problem: As property values rise, this translates into more money collected by local school districts that could be spent on public schools. In other words, if the value of your home goes up you will pay more in taxes in the coming year - unless the tax rate is lowered by an equal amount to offset the increase in values.

Legislators don't appropriate this local property tax money - BUT - they do draw up spending plans that assumes a mixture of both local and state funding. This is known as the Florida Education Finance Program or FEFP and districts that wish to draw down the state funding must collect a certain amount of money. (This is known as the required local effort or RLE.)

Republican leaders, including Scott, have used these increased local tax dollars to boost the overall amount spent on public schools. Some legislators have defended the practice by noting when property values plunged during the Great Recession that the state helped offset the loss (but not completely.)

But Corcoran has vowed that he will not let this happen this year - and he's taken a much stronger stance on this than practically every other spending item in play.

Important piece of history: Corcoran was chief of staff for then-House Speaker Marco Rubio when the Legislature waged a lengthy debate over property taxes during a time when Florida's real-estate market was super heated. The position of the GOP-controlled Legislature at the time was pretty simple: If local governments take in more tax dollars because of rising values, then it's a tax increase. Legislators forced cities and counties to roll back their tax rates. So Corcoran is being consistent with that position. (Also worth noting: Several senators, then in the Florida House, also took that position. Dennis Baxley, Anitere Flores, Bill Galvano, Denise Grimsley and Perry Thurston voted in favor of the bill to force local tax rollbacks.)

Scott has maintained that this isn't a tax increase and his own budget recommendation relies on nearly $558 million in increased local school taxes to help pay for an overall 3 percent increase in per-student funding. Scott has tried to suggest this is no different than if the price of a car goes up and you pay higher taxes because of the higher price. Yeah, but the government doesn't set the price of a car. In this instance government at both the state and local level have a hand in deciding how much property owners will spend.

BREAKING DOWN OTHER FLASHPOINTS...Quick hits on remaining things to look for and understand:

GAMBLING: Right now all these budget projections being thrown out do not assume any changes in Florida's gambling laws or a new compact with the Seminole Tribe. That means if - and it's a pretty big if - legislators could stroke a deal with the Seminoles and the rest of the players in the seemingly intractable gambling turf war it could provide an injection of cash that could help smooth things over.

GULF COAST SPILL MONEY: While this may not command a lot of attention around the state, the ongoing tug-of-war over money the state received as part of a settlement over the 2010 BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico is part of the overall dynamic that will decide how this session ends up. The state last year got $400 million as its first installment. Under an existing law some $300 million is supposed to go to eight Panhandle counties that were impacted the most by the spill. But the Legislature has to yet to agree to send the money out the door.

Corcoran and House leaders didn't like the arrangement allowed under the existing law so they have crafted a bill that places more oversight on the spending - and prohibits any of the money being used on economic development projects. The Senate so far has a different approach and they have not agreed to all the House restrictions. This money is a big, big deal to the Panhandle Republicans and in Tallahassee parlance - this is their going home bill - meaning they can't go home unless they get it worked out.

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: This item has gotten plenty of press especially since it has triggered a feud between Scott - who wants to keep funding intact for the state's economic development agency - and House leaders who want to eliminate Enterprise Florida and scale back Visit Florida, the tourism marking agency. The Senate so far is siding with Scott. The question is will they remain in sync with the governor all the way to the finish line.

HIGHER EDUCATION: Negron's bid to increase funding to state universities as part of an effort to propel them into the top ranks of the nation's public colleges is going to be rebuffed by House leaders who contend that universities are misspending what they have now (some of which came with the help of legislators who placed projects into university spending lines.) The one word of caution in this debate is that numbers get thrown around sometimes without a clear sense of what they mean.

Universities are dependent on several streams of funding and it appears so far that the House is lumping everything in to make an argument about overall spending. There are differences between straight state funding and the money that universities take in from other sources - whether it's tuition, money from federal grants, or money medical schools earn from seeing patients. For example, the amount of tuition money can go up even if the rates don't because universities admit more students. T

The House has zeroed in on spending among the foundations and whether it's proper for the universities to use state funding to subsidize fundraising operations. So far, the universities have had a muted response and not given a clear explanation as to practice. One big question is whether or not the House will advocate for blocking universities from using their foundations to pay university employees above state limits.

TRUST FUNDS: It's important to remember that some taxes and fees charged by the state don't wind up in the main budget account. Instead they are set aside in what are known as trust funds. Year in and year out special interests groups argue that money collected in these funds belong to them. And year after year the Legislature politely ignores this and transfers money of these trust funds and uses to help balance the budget.

SPEND NOW, PAY LATER? Unlike the federal government, Florida is required to have a balanced budget every year. That doesn't mean of course the state doesn't have debt. It does.

Until Scott came into office, past governors and legislators authorized borrowing for fixed capital costs such as building college buildings, roads and acquiring environmentally-sensitive lands. Scott started drawing a firm line about this and led the charge to push down the state's debt load. As of last June, it was $24.1 billion or more than $4 billion lower than it was when Scott came into office.

Negron's plan to build a reservoir south of Lake Okeechobee calls for increased borrowing. Currently the bill moving authorizes more than $3 billion in bonding authority to go to various projects, but with an estimated $1.2 billion going to the reservoir project. But that's not what is needed right away in this year's budget.

If the plan is approved it would carry an estimated $100 million price-tag to this year's budget since the bonds would be paid back over 20 years in installments.

So Negron's plan has an immediate cost to the treasury, but it's also important to understand that the full amount of his project will not included in this year's budget.

BOTTOM LINE: Under the current schedule legislators are operating under the House and Senate are expected to pass their budgets during the second week of April.

That week is already truncated because of religious holidays so it is highly unlikely that any negotiations or work can begin until April 17. That means legislators will have about 15 days to get everything worked out in order to get a budget finished on time. That's because Florida law requires the budget to be finished 72 hours before the final vote.

So that's a lot of ground to cover in a short amount of time. Besides the above-mentioned topics there's other issues at play, including pay raises, more money for charter schools etc.

January 11, 2016

After one of the most tumultuous years since Republicans assumed control of the Florida Legislature - the GOP-controlled House and Senate return this week for a 60-day jaunt that many legislative leaders hope/predict is relatively calm and uneventful heading into what could be a highly unpredictable election year.

Most insiders of course can recount the score: The budget meltdown, the abrupt ending of the 2015 regular session, two failed redistricting special sessions, a budget finally passed with days to go before a state government shutdown.

Legislators are returning early this year as part of an experiment to move up the date so that lawmakers can be back home in time to spend spring break with their families. (It would take a change in the constitution to move up session start for every year.)

Here then are the 5 biggest questions of session:

Can everybody just get along?

The expectation is that the resolution of the long-simmering Senate presidency battle (which was won by Sen. Joe Negron) and the Senate's tabling of Medicaid expansion should make it easier to reach a consensus on the state budget and other issues. Throw in the fact that it's an election year and there is an anticipation that there will be a willingness to compromise. But that may not capture the complicated situation at hand.

First all, there'sGov. Rick Scott who enters the session with a longer wish list than normal. And it's not just the $1 billion tax cut package and Enterprise Florida reforms that the governor wants (although that appears to be a big ask). Scott put together a $3 billion gambling deal with the Seminoles and he's also pursuing his health care transparency package.

Last year Scott showed that there is a price to pay (through his substantial budget vetoes) if you don't go his way. So you can be assured that remains on the minds of many legislators.

But let's not forget there are some Scott agency heads whose fates remained unresolved, or that there remains a split in fundraising/political activities that has resulted in the Senate and Scott raising money separately from the party. You can also throw in the whole unsettled situation in the Senate due to a redrawn state Senate map that could theoretically force some senators to moderate their positions.

Lastly, a key question is how supporters of former Gov. Jeb Bush and U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio in the Legislature will view Scott's decision to nudge ever so closely to endorsing GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump.

Say what you will about the sausage-making in the state Capitol a lot of it still depends on connections and relationships and many of the items cited could play a role. And if Scott is viewed as isolated from members of his party then there is even less willingness to work with him.

Is it possible to ever reach an agreement on gambling?

Well, you certainly wouldn't want to bet on it given the competing forces (including dog and horse tracks from outside of South Florida) who don't like some of the fine print on the deal that Scott reached with the Seminole Tribe. In the past few years attempts to pass major gambling bills have floundered amid the Scylla and Charybdis that exists in the Legislature on this issue.

But Scott remains a wild card on this. The governor, who began his business career as a deal maker, put together a proposed compact with tribal officials that was guaranteed to get big headlines and promised a big payout.

Throughout his time as governor Scott has remained, for lack of a better word, agnostic about gambling in the state. In other words, the governor isn't going to back the tribe, the dog tracks, the anti-gambling factions including Disney, Las Vegas casino owner Sheldon Adelson, or even Trump at all cost.

It would not be surprising if Scott's approach is basically: 'Hey, I helped put together a deal. Tribe, it's up to you and your lobbyists to get it passed.' And more importantly, is Scott amenable to changes as long as the overarching achievement - the money in the state's bank account is unchanged? Signs point to yes.

Tribal officials - who are still locked in a court battle over whether they can keep blackjack tables in their casinos under the 2010 deal that expired last summer - may have to decide if they need to cobble together something that makes everyone happy. Or decide if they could take their chances and just wait until next year.

Scott has been very deferential so far in his public pronouncements and has made it clear that it's up to the Legislature to work something out. If it doesn't happen the governor can maintain it wasn't his fault.

How many gun bills will reach their target?

Apart from the budget and gambling battles, you can expect a fair amount of attention in the media to be focused on the gun bills already moving through the Legislature. These include bills allowing open carry of firearms, guns on college campuses and changes to the Stand Your Ground law.

The decision by legislative leaders to already allow these bills to move through legislative committees even before the start of the 60-day session is a sign that there is considerable support for them.

Plus long-time National Rifle Association lobbyist Marion Hammerhas made it abundantly clear that she and her supporters have no plans to modify their stances on these bills. Hammer has told everyone that she will be keep pushing the legislation for as long as it takes.

Put that together and it would reasonable to assume that most, if not all, of the bills stand a good chance of reaching Scott's desk later this year. Yes, there is opposition to the various bills, including Florida State University President John Thrasher and university police chiefs on campus carry to some of Florida's sheriff's on open carry.

But the gun bills give Republicans a chance to do something that will fire up their own political base heading into what could be a chaotic election season.

There is a caveat with all of this though and that's the unresolved question of whether the new Senate districts (which appear to tilt toward Democrats) will persuade some senators that contentious issues of this sort need to be put on hold until 2017.

How will the growing power of Joe Negron and Richard Corcoran affect the process?

The general theory about the Legislature is that the influence/power of the outgoing legislative leaders begins to ebb during their second session while the clout of their successors begins to grow.

There have been exceptions to that rule over the years i.e. Dean Cannon as House speaker and John McKay as Senate president.

There will be those who will make snide comments that Corcoran, a former top aide to Rubio and current House budget chief, already has considerable sway in the House. Yes there are many signs that he does wield a good deal of influence, but expect it to get even larger.

Among some insiders who follow the process the operating theory right now is that House Speaker Steve Crisafulli and SenatePresident Andy Gardiner will get to watch their top priorities pass in the opening days of the session. (For Crisafulli, a potential Agriculture Commissioner candidate, that's a comprehensive water bill, while for Gardiner it's bills to aid families with children who have developmental disabilities.)

After that moment of comity, the rest of the session will be conducted in Corcoran and Negron's shadow. That could affect plenty of important bills, whether it's Negron's support of a measure to legalize/regulate fantasy sports to the judiciary reforms that Corcoran has already promised to push through.

Other considerations: Negron, an attorney, has clashed in the past with the insurance industry so that may make it hard for them to push through changes opposed by trial attorneys such as the revamp of assignment of benefits. Corcoran - along with his successor Rep. Jose Oliva - have expressed skepticism about for targeted business incentives like those championed by Scott or for items such as film incentives or subsidies to sports teams and operations.

Will this really be a do-nothing year for the Florida Legislature?

Talk to most lobbyists and they will quietly concur: This may be a really tough year to get anything substantial passed.

The reasons are many, starting with the epic battles of last year (see No. 1) to what appears to be an unpredictable election year (see Trump, Donald.)

There is a feeling right now that any attempt to move major changes/reforms in key areas will be difficult. It's not just the gambling deal with the tribe. This could flow to everything else including the types of tax cuts, health care changes pursued by the House to some of the environmental bills being pursued to alimony reform and major education bills. If Republican leaders are intent on putting aside any public disagreements then the easiest way may be to just deep-six many of the more contentious proposals.

As of this past weekend, 1,644 bills have been filed which does appear to put the Legislature on pace to meet last year's totals so maybe legislators themselves remain somewhat optimistic that they can things done. There is always a natural tendency for the Legislature to try to fix/improve/change things and have something to campaign about in the fall.

But the most substantial year for legislation in recent years was 2011 when you had a new governor and a supermajority in the Legislature following the 2010 wave year for the GOP. That track record suggests that 2016 will be relatively quiet.

January 07, 2016

It's only been a few short months since the start of football season - which is what helped bring the ever-expanding world of daily fantasy sports into the spotlight.

Now with the Super Bowl right around the corner - and a new legislative session about to commence - one key question remains:

What, if anything, does Attorney General Pam Bondi plan to do about the murky legality surrounding fantasy sports in Florida.

Let's scroll back.

It was back during the summer that the big players in daily fantasy - FanDuel and DraftKings _ started hiring lobbyists in Tallahassee as the same time they were starting a huge national ad campaign. Their moves came as a legal theory began to emerge that fantasy sports - the idea of selecting players in various sports and winning money based on their performance - was not allowed under Florida law.

This theory - which has been explored by South Florida attorney Daniel Wallach and further expanded in a paper penned by Wallach and Tallahassee attorney/lobbyist Marc Dunbar- says a key impediment is a 1991 opinion authored by then-Attorney General BobButterworth that concluded spending $100 on a season-long fantasy football team was illegal gambling.

Move to Florida and there are apparent signs of some prosecutors getting involved, namely that U.S. Attorney Lee Bentley in Tampa has reportedly launched his own investigation according to Wallach and others. There are also civil lawsuits being filed. And there was a key development in that arena when Law360 reported earlier this week that State Attorney Bernie McCabe has taken an interest in the issue.

McCabe, whose jurisdiction includes Pasco and Pinellas counties, filed a memo supporting an effort to remand the case against FanDuel and DraftKings back into state court because he asserted that the state was in fact the "real party of interest" in this case.

But it's hard to pin Bondi or her office down on how the state's top legal officer (and whose office houses the statewide prosecutor) views the evolving situation even as other law-enforcement officials take action.

Bondi has said she still supports the 1991 Butterworth opinion and has made no moves to rescind it or repeal it. But beyond that Bondi and her office continue to defer questions.

"Our office engaged in extensive discussions with the U.S. Attorney’s Office and we both agreed the matter should be handled federally,'' said Bondi spokesman Whitney Ray late last year "Also, our office is in regular contact with U.S. Attorney Lee Bentley, and we have full confidence that the U.S. Attorney's Office will handle the matter appropriately."

(It's worth pointing out that even though the Negron and Gaetz bills directly affect his agency, Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam has also not been exactly clear whether he's a fan or not of either version.)

The big giants in the fantasy sports industry are being primarily represented in Florida by mega-lobbyist Brian Ballard and his firm. Ballard is of course a big-time fundraiser who is now supporting Marco Rubio for president and also lobbies on behalf of Donald Trump.

But late last August one of the other lobbyists who signed up to represent the fantasy companies was well-known GOP consultant Marc Reichelderfer. He is friends with Bondi and has done campaign work on her behalf.

When asked about it directly last fall, Bondi said she was unaware that Reichelderfer had begun representing the fantasy sports industry.

Bondi during her five-year stint in office been very selective about what issues she will - or won't - engage in.

She once took a stance against casino gambling, but yet other times she has refused to take a position on bills even if they directly impact her agency operations. Bondi is also as of now remaining fairly quiet about what she thinks about the $3 billion compact negotiated between Gov. Rick Scott and the tribe (and which could allow a new casino in South Florida.)

With another session dawning, it will be interesting to watch whether or not the state's top legal officer weighs in on the various legal issues that surrounding gambling or gaming. Or if she will remain in a neutral (and silent) corner.

(This post has been updated to note that FanDuel is expanding its workforce in Florida.)

December 30, 2015

It's always been an open secret that Florida Gov. Rick Scott sticks to a script when he talks in public, especially when he occasionally answers questions from the press.

A reminder of that came recently when his office posted copies of what it calls "Driving Message" in response to a public records request by Tampa Bay Times reporter Steve Bousquet.

The information from October and November is essentially a rolling set of questions on topics/news of the day that includes the answer that Scott is supposed to be given when asked. The responses cover everything from campus carry gun legislation to what he thinks about GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump and why he's opposed to raising the minimum wage. ("Increasing the minimum wage will result in losing jobs.")

And the answers included in the documents are exactly what Scott has said about the various topics, whether it's a question about suspending school grades or the handling of Syrian refugees by federal government.

The talking points also give a small amount of insight about how Scott may handle issues in the near future.

The remarks, for instance, say he's not endorsing any GOP candidates for president "today" but they include praise for Trump despite the criticism aimed at the businessman from fellow GOP candidates such as former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush.

"I think people in Washington are trying to figure out why Trump is doing so well, but the reality is he is saying what he thinks. He is not being politically correct. I think a lot of people find that refreshing," state Scott's talking points.

Coupled with other things he has said about Trump _ and the fact that some of his own key supporters/campaign people are now working for him _ it would be plausible for Scott to endorse him ahead of the March GOP primary in Florida. (Although Scott has generally avoided getting involved in primaries given his own bitter, divisive primary for governor back in 2010 when he ran against establishment-backed candidate Bill McCollum.)

The answers included in the document regarding a bill that would allow concealed weapon holders to bring their guns on university campuses suggests that the Scott administration may have some doubts about the legislation. ("I am not sure there is a silver bullet solution, but college should be a safe place students go to learn, not a place of violence.")

But the main question is whether Scott and his team will revise this script as they head into 2016 and a session that starts in less than two weeks.

His talking points on tax cuts, hospital transparency, the proposed deal with the Seminole Tribe of Florida, and Enterprise Florida reforms don't fully explain Scott's logic. In other words, how exactly will Scott sell this?

Despite a contentious 2015 session that saw the GOP-controlled Legislature pare back, or ignore completely, many of his recommendations, Scott actually is pushing ahead with a more detailed agenda this upcoming session than he has during the last few years. And that creates plenty of potential flashpoints in the weeks and months ahead.

There's no doubt that his $1 billion tax cut package and his request of $250 million for business incentives are his top priorities as Scott makes a case to diversify the state's economy. He will make the argument in January - during a tour to emphasize job growth under his watch - that the state's economic recovery will not hold if more isn't done.

The problem for Scott and his team is that there is a wide divide in the House and Senate (which has been unable to agree on many top issues in the past year) on the right approach of so many of the items on Scott's 2016 checklist.

Gambling? It's not clear that there's enough votes in the Senate for the $3 billion deal proposed by Scott that would give craps and roulette to the Seminoles. But the House may not go along with the deal unless it includes a constitutional amendment that bars any future expansion. Senate President Andy Gardiner has said he's not sure there's enough votes in the Senate to pass such an amendment.

Business incentives? While the House and Senate may be willing to endorse Scott's "reforms" in regards to process, the idea of placing such a large amount of money in the governor's hands is viewed suspiciously by some House conservatives who consider incentives an intrusion into the marketplace.

Tax cuts? The amount is a hard goal to reach without making cuts elsewhere in the budget - which is something that legislators about to hit the campaign trail don't want hanging over their head. Another complication is that there is growing resistance to the reliance on increased local property taxes to help pay for school funding. House and Senate leaders say they like "tax cuts," but there is also divergence on whether those cuts should be more directed at individuals, not companies as Scott has largely proposed.

Hospital transparency? Scott's ongoing efforts to go after Florida's hospitals - including a price cap - includes some proposals that may strike some conservatives as intrusive government regulation not a free-market solution. House leaders have been pushing policies that they say will open up health care to more competition, while top Senate Republicans seem to have little interest in any of the ideas.

Scott, of course, has his veto pen as the ultimate bargaining tool as he deals with recalcitrant legislators.

The decision of Jesse Panuccioto resign from his job as the head of the Department of Economic Opportunity rather than confront a messy confirmation battle removed one potential point of leverage for the Florida Senate. But there are other agency heads whose adherence to Scott's agenda and seeming resistance to legislative instructions may make it difficult for them to survive what could be a messy session.

If the Legislature were in fact able to put together a budget quickly and present it to Scott before the end of the 60-day session, it would create a conundrum for the governor. He would be forced to act on legislative budget priorities within 7 days which would give lawmakers the ability to decide whether to approve some of Scott's top priorities based on how he handled the budget.

Another problem for Scott is that the consuming lobbying frenzy over the compact with the Seminole Tribe may distract legislators as they try to cobble together enough votes to pass something. (One possible solution is to have lawmakers pass the main compact, with the promise they will pass bills in 2017 to deal with other parts of the gambling industry.)

As all of this unfolds during the next two months, the question is whether Scott and his team will provide new answers, new insights and new arguments to counter the pushback that the governor is going to likely encounter.

Or will Scott stick to his oft-repeated line that he used time and time again where he will say that he expects the Legislature to "do the right thing" and vote exactly how he wants them to without explaining how, or why legislators should do that.

Maybe that will be the "driving message" that needs to be answered later in 2016.

October 31, 2015

Sometimes it can be hard for journalists, political observers, and yes, even his Republican allies to understand how Gov. Rick Scott ticks.

Scott almost never lets his guard down - especially when dealing with the press. He can seem like a robot when he delivers the same message and talking points over and over again.

Scott is a former lawyer who dealt with mergers and acquisitions before he helped set up what would be the nation's largest hospital chain before its steep fall amid federal investigations into fraud.

Looking at his history in the private sector and even in the public arena now for nearly five years it's clear that Scott views himself as a dealmaker. (Which is why he may ultimately endorse Donald Trump for president, but that's for another day.)

The Associated Press was the first to report that the state of Florida late Friday filed a federal lawsuit asking a judge to immediately shut down the blackjack tables operated at the tribe's casinos across the state.

The wording is stark and simple in the lawsuit. The part of the compact between the tribe and the state that covered blackjack tables expired this summer. The tribe had a 90 day grace period that ended Friday to remove the tables and they didn't. Therefore the state argues that the tribe is now operating in violation of state and federal law. They want a judge to place an injunction on the tribe.

From a tactical move it makes sense for Florida to sue the tribe - especially since earlier in the week the Seminoles made their own preemptive strike by filing their own lawsuit that contends that the state violated the compact. A tribe spokesman made it clear the Seminoles would keep their blackjack tables at the Seminole Hard Rock in Tampa and Hollywood until their lawsuit got resolved.

Still it's a bit of swerve for the Scott administration and for a governor whose own political committee in 2013 got a $500,000 check from the tribe. When point blank asked about suing the tribe this past Tuesday Scott got a tad testy and promised only that he "do the right thing for our state."

Remember back in 2014 Scott was negotiating a new deal with the Seminoles that would have created a big splash. The overarching goal was simple: Get a better deal than his opponent Charlie Crist did. And the final numbers would have been bigger. A $2 billion pay day for the state and the tribe would have gotten craps, roulette and a new casino location in return.

But Scott didn't get that deal because an effort to push it through the Legislature imploded. Scott's team - which included then Chief of Staff Adam Hollingsworth - brought it to legislative leaders late in the 2014 session.

They floated the idea of holding a special session in May to ratify it. Initially the gambling lobbyists were caught flat-footed and didn't realize how close Scott and the tribe were to reaching a new compact. Those representing the Las Vegas casinos and the dog and horse tracks furiously rallied against it. Legislative leaders quickly realized they would have a hard time getting enough votes to pass it.

After that the deal was put on ice while Scott marched toward re-election and the deadline for the tribe loomed closer.

Legislators in charge of gambling issues began talking themselves with the tribe earlier this year - and then Scott reengaged. He personally reached out to legislators such as Sen. Rob Bradley and talked about working in concert to get a deal.

One key point to remember: Scott may be considered agnostic when it comes to gambling.

He didn't get elected or re-elected based on making promises to the anti-gambling crowd, the Vegas casino crowd or the pari-mutuels. At point he got backing from the Vegas casinos but as first reported by Florida Politics - the Las Vegas Sands and Sheldon Adelson have given up for now trying to get a casino in the Sunshine State.

For Scott the main problem is that the Legislature, however, is rife with competing gambling factions.

Those involved have said the issue isn't just getting a deal with the tribe - it's getting a deal that can win enough votes in the House or Senate. There's also the significant rift that has developed between Scott and GOP legislators - especially those in the Senate - in the last year.

Tribal leaders said there had been "significant progress" in recent talks but conceded earlier this week that they had to go to court to protect their interests.

So in other words they wanted to keep their leverage to say to the state we can maybe achieve our goals without having to give up too much.

Scott, however, decided to call their bluff. He brought in an outside law firm and put together a lawsuit that goes after the tribe. It shows that the state of Florida is serious too. Both sides now have something to lose. This isn't the first time that Scott has tried this brinkmanship (high speed rail, Medicaid funding) and sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't.

But for Scott - the dealmaker - gets a chance to show off his skills again, and maybe, win a big jackpot and turn around his recent string of bad luck with the Florida Legislature.

August 03, 2015

Putnam or Scott?....Every one is aware that Gov. Rick Scott has been raising money for his own political committee _ Let's Get to Work_ as opposed to raising money for the state Republican Party this year.

But a closer look shows that contributions shows a bit of slowdown in the last three months. His largest contribution during that period hasn't been any actual cash but a large in-kind donation courtesy of Walt Disney World that he got from them in order to hold his economic growth summit with presidential contenders.

So has anything changed?

Yes, Meredith O'Rourke, one of the state's most sought after GOP fundraisers, is no longer working on behalf of the governor.

O'Rourke, who was in Naples celebrating when Scott defeated Charlie Crist last November, stopped work for Scott sometime in April.

Campaign finance records show that O'Rourke's company took its last payment for $25,000 from Let's Get to Work on April 17.

So what led to her departure?

Sources close to O'Rourke say that Scott gave her an ultimatum: Either raise money for me, or raise money for Adam Putnam, a likely contender for governor in 2018. This is apparently not the first time that Scott had asked O'Rourke to make this choice. But this time around O'Rourke chose Putnam.

Scott is widely rumored to be considering running for U.S. Senate in 2018. He has steadfastly brushed aside any questions about it, saying that he is focused on his job as governor. Putnam for his part has also brushed aside any questions about his intentions three years from now.

Still this is another sign of the gulf that exists between Scott, the mega-millionaire maverick who took on the GOP establishment, and Putnam, the native Floridian with long-time connections who has been steadily moving up the political ladder.

The animus between Scott and Putnam dates all the way back to 2011 when Scott insiders viewed Putnam as a potential primary rival in 2014. Scott repeatedly has threatened to veto Putnam's top legislative priorities. This year he vetoed budget items Putnam wanted even after Putnam sought a meeting to discuss why they were important. Putnam's office has said the Scott administration never responded to their request before issuing the vetoes.

Putnam also questioned the forced ouster of former Florida Department of Law Enforcement Commissioner Gerald Bailey by the Scott administration and went so far as to have phone conversations with Bailey about his departure afterwards.

Jackpot time at the Florida Lottery...Of course one important advantage that the Scott administration continues to have is that state agencies with huge budgets are responsible for doling out large contracts. This attracts high-profile lobbyists who themselves can raise a lot of money for potential candidates.

And right now some of the bigger contracts up for bid are at the Florida Lottery.

This includes a contract for the department's lottery online games that is at least worth $300 million over the next 10 years. (This contract includes the machines used to issue tickets for games such as Powerball and Mega Millions as well as the instant ticket vending machines.)

And it's already had some interesting twists and turns.

The existing contract with lottery operator Gtech was scheduled to expire at the end of September 2015. The agency put the contract out to bid in March 2014 - in the middle of a heated election year - and then....nothing.

In late January, the department issued a one-page announcement that it was rejecting the bids from Gtech, as well as Scientific Games International and Premier Lotteries Florida.

Why did it do this? Lottery officials won't say, other than department officials concluded it was "in the best interest" to reject them. So they started all over again and issued another invitation to negotiate in March of this year.

But with the looming expiration of the existing contract the department on June 16 extended the existing contract with Gtech. The operator will continue to get paid (largely under the current terms of its $333 million contract) until March 2017 or until a new vendor is selected.

Gtech is represented by lobbyists with deep connections to Scott, including Brian Ballardand his team as well as long-time Scott friend and lobbyist Bill Rubin. (Worth noting: Ballard's representation of Gtech predates Scott but we also know Ballard raised a lot of money for the governor.)

Scientific Games was represented by well-known Tallahassee figures Jim Magill and Mac Stipanovich until June 16 - the same day that Gtech got its extension. Right now the only listed executive branch lobbyist for the company is former Lottery Secretary David Griffin.

The third vendor that bid on the lottery contract is linked to a company called Camelot Global Services, which is represented by lobbyists at the firm of Southern Strategy Group, one of the more successful firms in town.

So it will be interesting to see who eventually winds up winning the lucrative online system contract.

But that's not the only contract worth watching.

Another major contract is the Lottery advertising contract in which a firm gets millions to manage the state's ad campaign. The last time the contract was up it sparked a bid protest after the department awarded a $100 million contract (which includes money for ad placements) to St. John & Partners.

The current contract - which initially ran for three years and was renewed twice for another three years - is due to expire at the end of August.

The bid for a new contract was released in June and it already appears to be drawing fire with complaints reaching all the way up to Scott's office.

Last week Deputy Chief of Staff Jeffery Woodburn directly emailed Lottery Secretary Cynthia O'Connell "in the interest of transparency" to tell her that Slater Bayliss, Nick Iarossi and Dan Russell had raised concerns with the governor's office over the ad contract.

Bayliss is a former aide to Jeb Bush who is a partner at The Advocacy Group at Cardenas Partners. Iarossi is another well-known lobbyist in town who has represented various gambling interests and a long list of other clients including Zimmerman Advertising (which lost out to St. John last time.) Russell is an attorney with the Jones Walker law firm and once worked as general counsel for the department.

The email from Woodburn to O'Connell doesn't include any instructions regarding whether the agency should change the bid.

But it does outline areas cited by the three lobbyists including desired qualifications, disclosure and ownership of reply contents and the staffing plan.

Concerns about the way the contract bid has also surfaced in the questions that were submitted by potential bidders to the Lottery.

The July 14 addendum to the bid documents shows that one vendor was concerned that the department wants bidders to spend "hundreds of hours" working on a presentation before they even know if they have been chosen as a finalist. "The current approach is very different from the standard practice in our industry,'' states the question (which does not identify the vendor that asked.)

In its response the department said it considered the question but left the bid requirements unchanged.

That same document also shows that another complaint is that the agency is requiring that people who would be responsible for managing the contract do the actual presentation and interviews with state officials. This means that senior managers at ad firms would be not be allowed to participate in the pitch to the Department of Lottery unless they planned to do the work. The department also refused to change this item as well.

Last week the department opened up the bids. Only four companies responded including St. John. Among those who did not participate this time was Zimmerman Advertising. The others who are vying for the contract are CommongroundMGS, PP+K, and Sapient.

The flurry of activity comes at a time when many key Republicans in the Legislature remain skeptical about the Lottery, including Senate President Andy Gardiner. O'Connell, who is a holdover from Scott's first term, is one of Scott's appointees who got caught up in the meltdown of this year's regular session when the Senate refused to confirm many of his choices.

She will be forced to step down next year if the Senate fails to confirm her for a second year in a row.

(This post has been updated to include the names of the four companies that have bid on the advertising contract.)

July 21, 2015

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush returned to the state capital on Monday to outline his plans to overhaul the culture of Washington D.C.

And in doing so - he may have _ to the consternation of some of those in the audience helped preserve the state's lobbyist gift ban.

The ban was enacted in late 2005 - one of the strictest regulations in the country at the time - and came after legislative wrangling that was an outgrowth of changes sought by then-Senate President Tom Lee.

For a national audience it may have sounded Monday as if Bush was the instigator of the ban.

"I know how that culture works,'' Bush said. "I saw it here in Tallahassee. Over time, lobbyists and legislators grew a little too comfortable in each other’s company, cutting deals that didn’t have much to do with the public interest. So along with the other changes we made, the Florida Legislature passed a law that I signed into law that created the strictest lobbying reforms in the country."

There's nothing inaccurate in that statement. But it does kind of brush aside a bit of the back story that existed in the development of the ban since it was legislators, not the governor, who was the main driver of the change.

Lee's goal was never to ban anything. He advocated two things: Disclosure of the freebies that lobbyists gave to legislators - and disclosure of how much money lobbyists were paid.

Lee told reporters at the time that they would be surprised how much money was in the system, and how that disclosure would shed a light on why the Legislature did some of the things that it did.

The Brandon Republican made his push for changes at the same time that a series of articles _ many of them in The Miami Herald _ that showed how the state's existing disclosure and gift laws had been flouted.

One example: Legislators couldn't accept anything more than $100 - and items lower than that but higher than $25 were supposed to be reported. Lobbyists would routinely agree to split the costs among themselves and spread it to multiple legislators to sidestep this requirement.

Other stories disclosed how one legislator solicited contributions from lobbyists for a trip to Africa, while another described a lavish engagement party held for one legislator and paid for lobbyists.

Lee's push initially went nowhere - but the issue gained momentum after the Herald published a story in late 2005 that pointed out four legislators flew to Canada on a private jet and visited a casino. They argued that they were raising money for the Republican Party of Florida so it was legal. But the cost of the trip was much more higher than the money raised. Plus it came at a time when legislators were considering how to implement a constitutional amendment dealing with gambling in South Florida.

During a special session late that year Lee pushed to add the gift ban to the mix since it was not included in the initial call issued by Bush. (The special session was called to implement an overhaul of Medicaid and to implement the amendment that allowed slot machines in Broward and Miami-Dade counties.)

The initial Senate bill did not ban everything. Instead it required detailed reporting of who provided meals and beverages to legislators on an individual basis. But it was the House _ led then by SpeakerAllan Bense _ that moved a bill that called for a complete ban.

The telling of the tale since then has posited that Bense and the House did not like the disclosure requirements pushed by Lee so they countered with such a Draconian measure that the Senate would reject it. Only that didn't happen. Lee and the Senate amended their bill to match the House measure and sent it over. Just 9 legislators voted no. Bush eagerly signed the measure into law.

"I applaud President Lee and Speaker Bense for their leadership in reforming the political status quo,'' Bush said at the time. "This measure increases transparency and accountability for the political process."

Since then the ban has survived a legal challenge, but the criticism against it has been steadily mounting, including those who note that there are legal ways for legislators to sidestep it. One key way: Solicit money from lobbyists for political committees and then use that money to pay for meals and other items.

Some lobbyists have complained that the gift ban has somehow distorted the process because they can't share a meal, or drink with legislators and that the ones with access are those who raise large amounts of money for campaigns and political committees.

Tallahassee-area legislators have maintained _ with little empirical data _ that the gift ban hurt the local economy.

Last year marked the first time since 2005 that an attempt to alter the gift ban statute made it through the process. The bill made a relatively minor tweak by making it clear that a local government that gives a legislator use of public property for a public purpose does not violate the gift ban if the local government has hired lobbyists.

But the passage of the bill included several asides from legislators that more substantial changes should be made to the law in the near future.

Bush may have blunted that momentum for now by citing the ban as a justification for a series of reforms he wants to push if elected president.

"I think the system is significantly better after that law was passed,'' Bush told a crowd gathered at Florida State University.

Now for certain it was an interesting crowd for Bush to make the remark since many of those in attendance are themselves lobbyists.

Some of the news accounts noted the connection that Bush himself has to lobbyists, including that his top adviser, Sally Bradshaw, is married to Paul Bradshaw, who founded one of Tallahassee's most successful lobbying firms Southern Strategy Group.

But by placing the gift ban into the orbit of his legacy Bush has created a rationale for top Republicans in the Legislature to support keeping it in largely intact for now. Many top GOP leaders are backing Bush for president.

It still may have been unlikely that the gift ban would have been revamped during the 2016 election year but Bush's decision to champion it may make that an even more remote possibility.

January 05, 2015

Florida Gov. Rick Scott, considered one of the most vulnerable governors in the nation last year, will this week be sworn into a second term and take his place in state history as just the second GOP governor to earn re-election.

Scott's priorities _ which are likely to be reflected in his inauguration day speech _ won't be much of a surprise since he is expected to repeat what he's been saying for some time now.

Scott will stress jobs, the state's economic recovery, tax cuts, as well as other key parts of Scott's re-election platform such as keeping college tuition costs down.

But key questions remain, including whether or not Scott gets any kind of "honeymoon" after his narrow re-election. And additionally, how will Scott fare with the distractions, scandals and other problems that loom on the horizon?

Any of these could be a test for Scott and his campaign-hardened team led by Chief of Staff Melissa Sellers. After winning by roughly 64,000 votes how much political capital does Scott really have, and more importantly, how will he react if legislators, lobbyists and other in Tallahassee start worrying about the next set of campaigns instead of Scott?

it can be argued of course that as long as the state's economy continues to recover that Scott has met his primary challenge and the one that he ran on.

But there's plenty of challenges Scott will confront in the coming year that could cause him problems and harm his eventual legacy.

Here's just some of them:

WILL REPUBLICANS REMAIN TRUE TO HIM? One of the most immediate challenges is what type of control Scott will retain over the Republican Party of Florida. Scott, with input from people like Sellers and former chief of staff Adam Hollingsworth, helped put people in place at the RPOF whose primary job was focused on getting Scott re-elected.

But for a variety of reasons there are those who aren't entirely trustful. With possible presidential campaigns for either U.S. Sen. Marco Rubioand former Gov. Jeb Bush gearing up, those loyal to Rubio and Bush harbor lingering doubts about the party. Look no further than the decision to give the keynote speech in the party fundraising dinner to Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal instead of trying to tap someone like Rubio.

The big test for Scott will come later this month when Leslie Dougher tries to win a new term as chairman of the state party. An early endorsement from Scott for Dougher did not dissuade Blaise Ingolia, a newly-elected state representative, from challenging her. Due to party rules Scott has a great deal sway over the executive committee, but a defeat of his hand-picked candidate would be a bit of a blow as he starts his second term.

ROLLING THE DICE AGAIN: Last year Scott tried to come up with a new compact with The Seminole Tribe of Florida that would allow the tribe to continue to enjoy parts of its ongoing gambling monopoly while giving a sizable boost to state revenues.

State legislative leaders made it clear that the deal would be dead-on-arrival due to the ongoing battle between other gambling interests, including those seeking to bring resort styled casinos to South Florida. Key portions of the existing deal with the tribe will expire this summer. Some legislative leaders, such as Senate President Andy Gardiner, have made it obvious that the end of this deal is not a major concern even if means the state would lose out on several hundred millions a year by allowing the existing deal to end.

Can Scott come up with a deal that keeps the tribe happy, keeps the money flowing into state coffers, yet can also get enough votes in the Florida Legislature?

PRISON DEATHS: Scott late last year agreed to give Julie Jones, the former head of the Department of Highway Safety and Motor Vehicles, a $160,000 a year job (on top of her state pension) to come out of retirement and take over the Department of Corrections.

Jones is stepping into the post at a time when the agency is under fire for inmate deaths and allegations of cover-ups. Right now the Florida Department of Law Enforcement is investigating dozens of inmate deaths and even today a legislative panel is expected to delve into all of the problems at the state's prisons.

Scott, who initially wanted to slash prison spending when he was running in 2010, has tried to keep his distance from the ongoing problems. But the ongoing investigations and problems with some of the privatization efforts pushed under his watch may put the scandal at his doorstep.

LEGISLATURE GOING ITS OWN WAY: Republicans who control the Florida Legislature went out of their way in 2014 to ensure Scott had a successful session as he moved into his re-election campaign. But there's been the feeling that it was an uneasy detente. Scott had a rocky relationship with many legislators when he first came into office because he defeated the GOP establishment candidate Bill McCollum.

Now with nothing else to run for _ right now at least _ how cooperative will legislators be? Gardiner has maintained Scott retains a good deal of sway due to his veto power. And there are reports from legislators that Sellers herself has tried to go out of her way to reach out to them in a friendly manner.

Some of Scott's priorities such as boosting school funding should be an easy sell to lawmakers.

The recent news that the budget surplus increased could also make it easier for Scott to get legislators to going along with additional tax cuts. But $1 billion over the next two years? Permanent elimination of taxes on manufacturing? A property tax constitutional amendment? Some of these may prove to be a bit more challenging once legislators delve into the nitty gritty details.

Other flashpoints could flare up as well: Gardiner himself during a session with reporters said that if there was a push to approve a new deal with the Seminole Tribe that he wanted a full-blown look at the operations of the Department of Lottery. Is that a sign that Lottery Secretary Cynthia O'Connell could find herself in for a difficult confirmation process?

Will legislators also fault Scott for how his Department of Health has handled implementation of last year's medical marijuana law? Some Democrats are already suggesting that the department may be trying to stall implementation because there is an opposition to the law from within the administration.

Put it all together and it could mean that even this year Scott could have a bumpy session.

PUBLIC RECORDS BATTLE: Scott remains locked in a legal battle over how his administration handled public records that is just one of the reminders of how the former CEO turned politician has dealt with the state's open records law. The governor is being sued for allegedly violating the state's public records law.

Some may view the motives of Tallahassee attorney Steven Andrews as suspect. But Andrews has been successful in many of his endeavors, including winning his initial lawsuit over a land dispute with the state as well as his defense of one-time aide CarlethaCole in charges that she illegally taped another aide in the lieutenant governor's office.

Chief Judge Charles Francis will be confronted with deciding whether or not he believes that Scott's office violated the public records law and did not timely produce records records for Andrews. The practical implication of an adverse ruling would be limited since we are talking about a civil lawsuit, but it would still prove to be historic if a judge found fault with the governor.

SCHOOL DAYS: This coming year Florida is expected to transition away from the Florida Comprehensive Assessment Test and replace it with a new test intended to measure how students fare on the new "Florida standards" that are largely modeled after Common Core.

Common Core remains a radioactive term with some conservatives. Scott has tried to assuage critics by asking Education Commissioner Pam Stewart to convene a group to look at the standards once again. Meanwhile Stewart is also being asked to "investigate" the use of testing in Florida schools.

The most immediate problem is ensuring that the new test is administered smoothly and that there aren't any problems in evaluating the work of students.

But the continued focus on Common Core means that it will continue to a potential distraction _ and political problem _ for Scott and state legislators.

The other dynamic, however, is Scott will find himself confronting Bush and his allies if the governor tries to dismantle any of the main elements of the Bush's education reforms that were put in while he was in office.

HIGHER EDUCATION: Scott could also create friction with business leaders and legislators over his ideas for higher education as well.

Scott has pushed vigorously to roll back tuition hikes - and take away the power to let universities raise their prices. In his inauguration speech, Scott will expand that focus to suggest there should be limits on graduate tuition hikes as well.

But Scott's austerity pitch will come at a time when some universities like the University of Central Florida and the University of South Florida are coming up with plans to expand their campuses.

While it's true tuition doesn't pay for new buildings, any expansion brings with it higher operating costs, which have to be paid from either tuition or state general revenue.

Schools such as Florida State University led by new president John Thrasher want more money to boost faculty salaries in an effort to move FSU into the ranks of the nation's leading public universities.

While legislators backed Scott's tuition plan during a campaign year, it may be harder for them to ignore the requests from university presidents _ and local leaders _ who want their schools to grow.

THE NEXT ELECTION: Scott has been fairly good at avoiding getting too involved in presidential politics _ or even other significant state and local races.

But he might find that difficult as both the 2016 presidential election and the 2018 state elections begin to heat up.

It's widely believed that Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam will seek the governor's office in 2018. Putnam and Scott don't have a close relationship, partly due to the fact that Scott has several times threatened to veto Putnam's top legislative priorities.

There are signs - like in last year's final Cabinet meeting - where Putnam has shown that he now has no problem challenging Scott. That could grow as 2018 moves closer and Putnam decides to show even more of his independence.

Chief Financial Officer Jeff Atwater may run for governor as well and may also be eager to distance himself from Scott.

Presidential politics could also prove to be a complicating factor.

When Scott ran for a second term, he relied more on Texas Gov. Rick Perry and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie than someone like Bush. (Bush probably spent as much time or more campaigning for Putnam's re-election as he did for Scott.)

If Christie jumped into the 2016 presidential race against Bush, would Scott be able to stay on the sidelines after all the work _ and money _ Christie delivered to him?

What would Scott do if the Legislature decided to change Florida's primary date in an effort to help Jeb? Would he go along, or veto the bill?

And if Rubio were to bypass re-election and run for president what would Scott himself do?

Scott considered running for U.S. Senate in 2010 but opted instead to run for governor. When asked recently about his future, Scott said he ran for governor and has no plans to run for anything else.

Would that change, however, if it were an open seat? Or would Scott back someone like Attorney General Pam Bondi _ who he does have a good relationship with _ over other Republicans who also might be interested in seeking to replace Rubio?

May 02, 2014

The 2014 session of the Florida Legislature is expected to end sometime Friday night after lawmakers vote on a new $77 billion budget.

The session for the most part did live up to billing as an election-year offering designed to helpGov. Rick Scott.

That didn't mean there wasn't some of the usual tension and drama that accompanies every session.

Here then are this year's biggest questions answered:

1. Is this year's gambling legislation the real deal, or is it all for show? It was pretty much just a show. The deep divides over gambling remained in force and halfway through the session both the House and Senate shut down any consideration of any serious legislation.

At the tail end of the session Scott and his staff floated the idea of bringing a finished compact with the Seminole Tribe of Florida to legislators. One idea was to hold a special session in May to consider it.

That trial balloon was quickly shot down. And Democrats - who are seen as vital in approving any bill due to longstanding Republican opposition - locked down and said they wouldn't approve any deal unless they were involved in negotiations.

So at this point it's hard to imagine anything productive happening until maybe after this fall's elections.

2. Will the Republican-controlled Legislature really approve in-state tuition rates for the children of illegal immigrants? Yes. The Florida House is poised on the final day of the session to pass the bill and send it to Scott. And Scott plans to sign the bill once it hits his desk.

The issue of in-state tuition deeply divided GOP legislators, especially those in the Florida Senate. The bill nearly died a couple of times in that chamber as some Republicans accused Scott and others of "pandering" and not sticking with the GOP idea of requiring people to follow the law.

Sen. Jack Latvala, R-Clearwater and Senate sponsor, credited House Speaker Will Weatherford and just as importantly, Scott for keeping the issue from dying this year.

Scott, who is caught up in a tight re-election this year, halfway through the session embraced the idea of in-state tuition even though just a year ago he vetoed a bill that would have helped these same DREAMers get a temporary driver's license. Democrats accuse Scott of a cynical election year ploy, but the fact is that after years of trying those pushing the issue are finally going to get the bill passed.

As a sidelight it's interesting that while one potential 2016 presidential candidate - former Gov. Jeb Bush - came out forcefully in favor of the bill U.S. Sen. and former House Speaker Marco Rubio did not. Alex Leary of the Tampa Bay Times even noted in a posting that it appears that Rubio's position on the issue has changed since assuming federal office. Rubio supported the legislation when he was still a South Florida legislator.

3. Testing vs. vouchers Well, this one is headed down the wire.

Concerns over testing prompted the Senate sponsor of this year's bill to expand Florida's private school voucher program to pull his bill from consideration. But the House then attached the bill that would offer vouchers to middle-income families to a bill that also deals with educational services for disabled children that is a top priority for Senate President-designate Andy Gardiner.

The Senate responded with crafting a bill that includes some testing language, but not a requirement that private schools have their students take the same test as public school students. Instead the revamped proposal includes a requirement that schools with a majority of voucher students to publicly report student performance on standardized testing.

But the Senate bill got tangled up on the 59th day and Democrats refused to allow the Senate to take up the House legislation. The procedural misstep has put the bill in jeopardy of dying on the final day. Weatherford predicted that the bill would still pass before the Legislature ends Sine Die. (UPDATE: Weatherford was right. The Senate attached the legislation to another bill and pushed it through despite the objections of many Democrats.)

4. Could Rick Scott still have a tough session?

The answer was sort of.

Clearly the looming prospect of Scott's re-election hung over the entire session. Controversial proposals were jettisoned repeatedly as it became apparent that legislative leaders had no intention of sending anything too polarizing to Scott's desk.

But Scott's decision to get behind the in-state tuition bill forced the governor to engage on a tough issue. After coming out in favor of the bill, the Senate repeatedly came close to scuttling the entire proposal.

Scott's effort to get legislators to consider a deal with the Seminoles also fell flat.

But in other ways Scott fared well. He got most, if not all, of his tax cut package. His spending recommendations were not completely followed but he got a lot of what he asked for and the Senate gave a thumbs up to his appointments.

5. Will there be a libertarian wave during this year's session?

Kind of, sort of. The Legislature is expected on its final day of session to pass a bill that would authorize the use of a strain of marijuana known as "Charlotte's Web" for medical purposes.

During his defense of the bill Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fort Walton Beach, even noted that by passing the bill Florida was in fact deciding to ignore federal laws that completely outlaw all forms of marijuana.

But many other pieces of legislation to loosen up on government regulation crashed and burned, whether it was getting rid of red light cameras or deregulating the sale of liquor in grocery stores.

And then there was the big cluster over craft breweries and whether or not they could sale certain sizes of beer known as growlers. The intense firefight between the big beer distributors and the craft breweries over what kind or regulation is needed has not been resolved and the bill is expected to die in the Florida House on the final day.

March 05, 2014

The annual 2014 legislative session kicked off on Tuesday amid the usual ceremony, speeches and even a brief round of protests.

But it appears so far that this year's 60-day march will be relatively low-key, and perhaps, much less contentious than the last three years since Gov. RickScott took office. (Example: The 2011 session may remain one of the most substantive sessions in the last decade.)

Still there may be a few flashpoints between now and early May when legislators wrap up their work and hit the campaign trail.

Here are the 5 biggest questions that should be answered between now and then:

1. Is this year's gambling legislation the real deal, or is it all for show?

Here at the start of the session we now have dueling versions of gambling bills that have been rolled out by House and Senate leaders. One of the substantial differences between the two bills is that the Senate version would allow the establishment of two major casinos in South Florida, while the House bill is more of an overhaul of existing gambling regulations. The Senate bill also has wording right now that appears to allow slot machines at some pari-mutuels outside Broward and Miami-Dade although that has been explained as inadvertent.

House Speakr Will Weatherford has maintained that the House will not move forward on any gaming legislation without a constitutional amendment that subjects gambling expansion to voter approval and a new compact negotiated between the governor and the Seminole Tribe of Florida. The rationale for waiting on a new compact is that any new gaming bill could affect the agreement that brings in more than $200 million a year to the state. A key portion of that agreement expires in 2015. The Tampa Bay Times/Miami Herald reported on Tuesday that Scott has opened negotiations with the tribe.

So that could put the entire deck of cards in play if Scott does produce a new compact with the tribe in the new few weeks.

But what's significantly different about the gambling debate from other high profile issues is that it pits some of the biggest political heavyweights in Florida in direct competition with each other, whether it's Disney and the Florida Chamber of Commerce (which oppose expansion), the tribe (which is fighting to keep its existing monopoly that lets it make money off its Tampa casino), or the pari-mutuels (which are fighting to remain viable) or the Las Vegas casino owners who want to build in South Florida.

Now maybe Disney and Central Florida business owners come to the grudging realization that the best deal is to accept one in which they accept casinos in South Florida, but with the understanding that nothing happens north of the Broward county line. Some cynics, however, have suggested this entire process may continue to get dragged out, especially since it has produced hundreds of thousands in political contributions for both parties.

Still there are some legislators who have suggested that the Legislature remains too fractured over the issue and unable to come up with a deal. Right now there isn't even a plan to bring any bills up for a vote for at least another two weeks. Sen. John Thrasher, the veteran North Florida Republican and former head of the party, on opening day called the entire debate a "distraction" and said he hoped they would just quickly kill off the discussion for another year.

2. Will the Republican-controlled Legislature really approve in-state tuition rates for the children of illegal immigrants?

Weatherford on opening day made an impassioned plea for legislators to approve legislation that would allow children of illegal immigrants who had been brought to this country, but had graduated from a Florida high school, to be eligible for the same tuition rate that is charged to other Florida residents. He said it was wrong to "punish" children who had done nothing wrong.

Last year the House considered a similar bill but the key difference here is last year's bill applied only to U.S. born-children of illegal immigrants and it largely codified an existing federal court ruling.

This issue of in-state tuition for the children of illegal immigrants, sometimes referred to as "Dreamers," is not new. There have been numerous instances in which one chamber or the other has pushed this proposal and other high-profile Republicans such as U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio backed the idea.

But as Rubio showed as he weighed into the debate over immigration, this can trigger some intense debate among the conservatives that make up the base of the Republican Party. It could be argued it also was one of the things that wounded the presidential campaign of Texas Gov. Rick Perry.

Senate President Don Gaetz has already said he is opposed to the legislation and that he could not explain to his constituents why he could support, in his words, give benefits to someone ahead of someone else who played by the rules.

The question, however, remains whether or not the Legislature wants to put this bill on the desk of Gov. Rick Scott during a critical re-election year.

There's no doubt that Scott's signing of the bill could potentially help him with some Hispanic voters in Florida. Hispanic Republican legislators have been among the steadfast supporters of this legislation for many years.

But would Scott be tempted to veto the bill in an effort to show loyalty to the conservatives who help propel him into office? Would signing the bill risk keeping them at home in a year when he needs every vote?

Scott for his part keeps saying he is "considering" the bill because he remains concerned about the high cost of tuition for all families. Still it's worth wondering whether or not Scott's team quietly asks legislators to push this off in order to avoid the publicity and contentious debate that it could trigger.

3. Testing vs. vouchers

Since entering the Florida Legislature one of the most ardent champions of vouchers, or "school choice" as he and supporters term it, has been Weatherford.

Both Weatherford and Gaetz have said that one of their priorities remains yet another expansion of the state program that offers tax credits to companies that steer money to organizations that hand out vouchers. This year's proposal is significant because it would offer a tax credit for sales taxes, which is the biggest chunk of the state budget and which is paid by lots of companies. The bill would also widen who could qualify for vouchers.

Yet Gaetz has thrown in his own requirement that could ultimately doom the effort.

In his opening day speech, Gaetz told his fellow senators that children who go to private schools courtesy of these vouchers "should be assessed just like the performance of any other child. Why? Because testing is not just about score-carding. It is about measuring academic progress so schools and teachers can customize instruction to meet individual student needs, so parents will know how their children are really doing, so taxpayers can be sure how their money is used."

Let's be clear - it is not unusual for private schools to require standardized tests of students. Jon East, who works for one of the organizations that back vouchers, even points out this out in a recent blog item that students who receive the scholarships have been required to take a norm-referenced test since 2006.

But those tests are not the state-sanctioned tests such as the Florida Comprehensive Assessment Test and private schools may not use these standardized tests in a way that comes even close to how the public schools use them (such as ranking schools and evaluating teacher performance).

And there's where the debate, and resistance lies. Private schools operators would argue that it would be unfair to mandate a particular type of standardized test. You can go even further. Some private schools in recent years have touted the fact from a marketing standpoint that their schools DO NOT require FCAT testing.

East himself nails the point: "It's which test, not whether to test."

So how will private schools respond if the state says, ok, in the future, students who accept vouchers must take the same test that all students will start taking in 2015 (which is when a new test tied to Common Core.) Some may have no problem since some are in fact tying their curriculum to Common Core just like the public schools. But this debate could cause enough division that it complicates the voucher expansion effort.

4. Could Rick Scott still have a tough session?

Both Weatherford and Gaetz have in many ways cleared the way for Scott to have one of the smoothest sessions he has had since he took office in 2011. They quickly embraced his call for $500 million in tax cuts - and they have already pledged to keep college tuition flat this year as the governor asked.

So does that mean Scott will get everything he wants?

That's not entirely clear.

One early flashpoint has to do with Scott's call to completely eliminate the differential tuition that universities are now allowed to charge.

The universities got the Florida Legislature to give them some limited amount of discretion to raise tuition a maximum of 15 percent a year regardless of the tuition rate set by legislators. The argument at the time was that Florida tuition is low compared to the national average and that students should pay their fair share. This change in law was championed initially by the University of Florida and Florida State University, both of whom have a sizable number of alumni in the Legislature.

The two legislative leaders have initially said that they are willing to lower the differential tuition rate from a maximum of 15 percent to 6 percent.

But Scott wants it entirely eliminated. So far, Weatherford has said he understands the governor's position but he has not endorsed doing that. This could be an interesting and evolving debate for most of the next 60 day session.

Another potential area of discord: Will Scott's appointments - particularly his agency heads such as Department of Economic Opportunity director Jesse Panuccio - get confirmed? There are rumblings that Panuccio may have a tough time. One recent article pointed out that Gaetz himself would not say for sure if he would be confirmed.

Part of this could be the constant dance between legislators and the governor as each side tries to have some small bit of leverage. There was another small bit of evidence of behind-the-scenes intrigue when Rep. Seth McKeel gave the Department of Management Services a dressing down and floated an amendment to take away Scott's control of DMS and instead place it under the governor and Cabinet.

5. Will there be a libertarian wave during this year's session?

Republicans in the Florida Legislature have long wrestled with questions of deregulation, government intrustion versus the need for stability and order.

For example, one big battle early in Gov. Jeb Bush's first term was whether he would sign a bill that eliminated the helmet requirement for motorcyclists. Bush eventually signed the bill into law despite a heavy veto push, including from those in the insurance industry.

This year we have bills to loosen up speed limits, get rid of red light cameras, authorize certain sizes of beer bottles, let grocery stores sell liquor, and even a measure that would permit a certain strain of marijuana to be legal in the state.

For many regular Floridians these arguments over pot, booze and speeding may wind up being the most important things that legislators wind up doing. But some of these bills have also sparked a fair amount of lobbying in opposition from various interest groups whether it's law enforcement authorities, liquor store owners, and driver safety groups.