M23 president sacked as internal rifts deepen

The political leader of the M23 rebels, Jean-Marie Runiga, has been sacked by the group's military commander, Sultani Makenga, in a sign of growing tensions between the militia's two rival factions.

Analysis

In the letter announcing the dismissal, Mr Makenga accused Mr Runiga of high treason and of co-operating with Bosco Ntaganda, the leader of M23's predecessor, the Congrès national pour la défense du peuple, who is wanted by the International Criminal Court (ICC) on war crimes charges. Tensions between Mr Ntaganda and Mr Makenga, and their respective supporters, go back several years, but have intensified in recent months as the M23 has become more prominent and negotiations between the rebels and the Congolese government have continued. Over the past week an M23 major was assassinated, probably as a result of in-fighting, and the two sides have engaged in direct fighting in the Rutshuru District in North Kivu.

Mr Ntaganda and his supporters are opposed to the peace talks and fear that a deal with the government would see their influence decrease and their leader handed over to the Congolese authorities—there is a US$5m reward for Mr Ntaganda's arrest. Meanwhile, Mr Makenga—who has expressed willingness to capture Mr Ntaganda—has appeared more sympathetic towards a deal with the government and a potential re-integration of him and his fighters into the regular army (FARDC). The balance of power between the two factions is unclear and the impact of the current power struggle depends on which side gains the upper hand. Initial indications suggest that Mr Makenga's faction is in a position of strength, but this could quickly change.

The divisions could play into the hands of the Congolese authorities, who may seek to capitalise upon the splits to weaken the group as a whole. However, the regime's ability to fill any void left by a weakened M23 is limited, and could instead benefit other militias in the area. Moreover, the government has said that it wants all M23 leaders arrested, including Mr Makenga, suggesting it is unwilling to make a deal with any of the factions. This view is likely to be supported by the military establishment, which is reluctant to see the rebels integrated into the FARDC and would prefer a military offensive against the rebels.

Impact on the forecast

The outcome of the current power struggle inside M23 will have an impact on the peace processes in the eastern provinces, and our outlook is likely to be revised to reflect this. Nevertheless, a weak regular army and limited state control underline our view that the security situation will remain highly volatile in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo for the remainder of the outlook period (2013-14) and beyond.