Republicans and Democrats may seem far apart as deadlines approach for legislation to authorize federal government spending and borrowing for the next fiscal year. (Photo: Thinkstock)

Republicans and Democrats may seem far apart as deadlines approach for legislation to authorize federal government spending and borrowing for the next fiscal year, but a closer look at both parties’ priorities and past practices shows any significant disruption is unlikely, and the fiscal status quo will continue uninterrupted through next year.

What Republicans want
Sens. Mike Lee, R-Utah, Ted Cruz, R-Texas, and Marco Rubio, R-Fla., have led a grassroots conservative charge for delaying Obamacare through the continuing resolution that must be passed before October 1, to keep the most of the federal government running through the next fiscal year.

Establishment Republicans, on the other hand, believe that any change to the 2011 Budget Control Act deal with Democrats would be a political loser, and are therefore desperately trying to convince rank-and-file Republicans to rubber stamp a continuation of current federal government spending levels. These Republicans also believe that sequestration has been a huge policy win for conservatives, and they do not want to risk a situation where that accomplishment could be undone.

What Democrats want
Above all else, Democrats want to see Obamacare implemented with as little disruption from Republicans as possible. They also want a debt limit passed without any conditions from Congress, but they would also like to see the non-defense portions of sequestration undone.

You’ll get two votes and you’ll like it
Since both establishments value stability over their parties’ other priorities (rolling back Obamacare for conservatives, rolling back sequestration for liberals) the CR should pass relatively smoothly, with at most some show-votes defunding Obamacare in the House and Senate.

House Republican leaders have made some noise about possibly fighting for Obamacare delays in the debt limit fight, but considering how they blinked and punted on the issue in January, it is far more likely that they will settle for much less. Talking Points Memo‘s Sahil Kapur outlines a likely outcome:

The likelier endgame is that Republicans ultimately come up with a shiny object to distract their base and portray it as a concession by Democrats. That could include symbolic moves like Senate Democrats permitting a vote on House GOP legislation to delay parts of Obamacare, such as the individual mandate. Of course, Democrats would vote down such a bill, but it’d give Republicans a political weapon to use against vulnerable red-state Democrats in the 2014 elections, when they hope to win the Senate majority.

It is also possible that House Republicans could cut a deal with the White House on some mini-grand bargain that cuts Social Security and raises taxes by adopting the chained CPI method of measuring inflation. But the bases of both parties would rebel against such a move, so the more likely path of least resistance is show-votes on defunding Obamacare in both chambers that make it easier for Republicans to take the Senate in 2014.

Lefty PlaybookSahil Kapur lists Five Reasons To Fear Shutdown, Default.Sam Stein says Sequestration is Ushering In A Dark Age For Science In AmericaJonathan Cohn on the The Big Savings Obamacare Critics MissThink Progress notes that Almost Half Of All Americans With Individual Health Plans Will Get Subsidies Under Obamacare.