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If Washington were about to kill the stock market and destroy the nation's pristine credit rating, Goldman Sachs would not allow Twitter to go public.

Goldman Sachs has better information than almost anyone, the result of powerful databases and a robust social network that keeps it tapped into the market's vitals. It is likely that a social-networking service that lets people post terse messages of 140 characters or less will be a hot, oversubscribed stock offering that mints many millionaires, and possibly a few billionaires.

That Twitter's offering document was filed as congressional dithering over the budget threatens the markets is perhaps the best summing up of the bullish forces beneath the stock market's surface.

This bullish activity is occurring far from the reactionary radars of the many public pundits palavering about an ignominious end to a rally that has lifted the Standard & Poor's 500 index some 20% this year. Many stocks are up even more than the index.

To be sure, it is possible that Congress will push the U.S. government to default on its debt, and the consequences would be catastrophic, but footprints in the options and stock market indicate that sophisticated investors are sanguine.

Correlation among stocks, a measure of risk, is low, even though earnings season is nigh and companies are once more expected to have difficulty posting meaningful revenue growth. Still, investors are buying stocks and calls while sprinkling cash in a variety of portfolio hedges, just in case congressional bickering harms the nation and the financial markets. The belief is that the Bernanke Put trumps all.

CORRELATION, WHICH MEASURES the synchronicity of stocks, declined in the past week for all but two of 10 Standard & Poor's 500 index sectors. Materials and utilities correlation did not decline, according to Goldman Sachs' research. The two sectors that declined the most: financials and energy. When investors are afraid of macro-market risks, correlation rises. A popular interpretation of low correlation is that Wall Street thinks Congress will blink in the budget stalemate with the White House over health care, and stocks will rally.

Some big investors have strong conviction about this. On Thursday, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average was off as much as 160 points, Credit Suisse reported that a client bought 60,000 October 14 VIX puts in that session—a bet that S&P 500 index volatility will collapse, which would occur if the index advanced.

And so, dear readers, this is how the smart money is positing itself, even though it is October, one of the market's most volatile months. If Congress blinks, much money will be made. If not, a lot of people will lose a lot of money in less time than it will take for rating agencies to lower the U.S.' debt rating.