Saturday, January 10, 2009

Kibaki’s Out Of Character Behaviour Is Reason To Worry

I feel rather generous today and so I will let you into one of the secrets behind Kumekucha’s seemingly uncanny ability to predict stuff long before it happens.

Any analyst worth their salt knows that one of the signs to look out for is when people behave out of character. That should automatically send warning bells ringing loud and clear in your mind.

Let me give you a little story from my personal life to illustrate this. My Dad is not religious but believe me, he is a good man. I have told you before how many times he risked his life to “leave his conscience clear” as he likes to put it. Now if there is one thing the guy hates with a passion, it is being told lies. You can do anything to him but JUST DON’T tell him lies.

I remember one day when I was already an adult I had visited him and he casually asked whether I had checked out his maize in the store. My mind raced and I decided to tell him a “kind lie”.

“YES,” I said brightly. He then asked how high up the maize cobs were. My mind raced again and I told him it was almost at the top. His face twisted with rage and disappointment. He muttered something under his breadth and did not talk for over 15 minutes. He’s my dad and I knew what was wrong. Being an ex-cop (do they ever retire?) he had quickly been able to nail me for telling what may appear to be a harmless lie. To him there is nothing harmless about lies.

If the world ever sees anything good in me, then I can assure you it came from my dad. If we had a few more like him maybe Kenya would not have turned out the way it did.

Now back to my point in telling this story. Imagine if one day somebody told the old man a lie and he just laughed and brushed the whole thing aside? I would be alarmed. When people behave out of character that is the right reaction.

Now something has happened over the last few days that has had me so worried that I have been bothering my informants and contacts terribly looking for more clues and chasing various leads. Don’t worry folks, you will be the first to know when I have something concrete. But for now let me share my train of thought with you.

The President behaved totally out of character when he so suddenly bulked under pressure over the infamous Kenya communications act. Knowing President Kibaki the way my excellent insider contacts have helped me know him, the President does not really care and it usually takes a whole lot to rattle him.

Remember what happened during the post elections violence? The country was burning and moments away from total shut down, and Emilio Stanley just remained cool and refused to budge. It was Raila Odinga and ODM who blinked first and even then the President took that as a show of weakness and moved the goal posts a little. What made him finally change were a combination of many very serious factors including a terse and very threatening message from the Yankies delivered to him By Tanzanian President Jakaya Kiwkete (because Emilio had stopped taking calls from The US). Anyway that is a story for another day.

So what is really bothering me is why the President has so suddenly accepted to go back on his convictions regarding the media bill. My thinking is that the president by virtue of his position has information that most Kenyans do not have and this information is very alarming bordering on catastrophic scenarios facing the good corrupt-filled banana republic we call home.

Could it be the looming famine? By the way the way things look on the ground what is about to happen is unprecedented in these shores. Experts say that one in every 3 Kenyans faces the risk of starvation. That is a huge number folks, no matter what angle you look at it from? Or is Emilio feeling threatened by the policy changes that are about to take place in Washington as the Obama administration takes over? Is he going to be handed over to the Hague while he is still in power? Or does it have something to do with the never-before-seen level of security we see around the president these days? All these are merely my suspicions at the moment and am still pursuing useful leads to give you some concrete story.

Meanwhile those who are wise will join me in worrying why a man so suddenly behaved so much out of character.

"Chriso"for those who normally complain that the coverage of political landscape is not balanced in this blog but one sided and in favour of a particular party finally today they have something to smile about and big too

this is an unbiased and objective perspective of (Dr.)Kibaki and the questions and concerns it raises are worth addressing with non-partisanship opinions and logical points of view because they augur well for the overall benefit of the entire country

the president has alot on his mind Chris, his plate is full-that is all, so there really is no need to worry about his behaviour-he is still the same man who earned his doctorate in law late last year, and he is still the same man who was considered for nomination of the nobel's peace prize award for 2008and more importantly he is still one important half of the 2 part grand coalition government Kenyans will be governed by for the next 4 years

he has alot to consider given that he is in his last term and legacy is important for an educated man like him-how will he be remembered? His official residence recently replaced his comptroller and he is busy searching for an effective replacement never mind the naysayers-the president's motto has always been merit and qualification first

on top of all this his people are starving and security around him has increased because if you think rigged elections make people's blood boil over you've seen nothing yet what hunger and an empty stomach can do to an already rock-bottom citizen

all in all, this is a man who is feeling the weight of the whole country on his shoulders, never mind those whose celebrity allows them to give international interviews

More consipracies....sounds like a page out of a book by John Kiriamiti.

"my sources...confidants...close sources...sources close to the president..." I do not need Pychology 101 to recognizes voices that are only in someone's head.

You could have done us justice by talking about by the real (near-existential) threat of the looming famine and how ODM have propelled us closer to it by creating artificial shortages of maize.

What is the big deal about the media bill? Kibaki did what the constitution mandates him to do, he assented to the bill crafted and approved by the only law making body of the nation...parliament. Kibaki did not create the bill, ODM led parliament did.

Further, the so called "offensive parts" have been in force since 1998; I have not seen a reasonable explanation as to why we are getting angry now (about what is an obviously draconian provision in the '98 bill) and not anytime in say 99, 2002, or 2005.

It is almost impossible to decipher the ways of this animal called the Kenyan leader. The way the animal acts in its enviroment would buffle any scientist or observer.

According to the bbc, the GK is going to declare a food shortage emergency with up to 10 M citizens facing starvation due to a 2 year plus drought.

Which brings me back to the dangers of leading from the back kama mkiya. No one bothered toreadthe tea leaves. We gladly spent money during the violence and also by balloning the size of GK with redundant posts. As this time, we are running without a minister of finance.

So for those who are quick to accuse Chris of innuendo and rumormongering; please look the bigger picture and apply your own reasoning capabilities. True some stuff here may be untrue but hey - it's a blog and therefore opinion and not fact.

watu wilitukana moi but its increasingly becoming clear that moi was a far more competent leader than mr kibaki, 4 year left and kenya will move on. weaker than it was when moi left power. Kibaki thought five years is a life time forgeting that a country usually outlives everyone. To me its just a count down to chaos...only god will save our country from short sighted leaders nliken we currently have...

Well, I wouldn't go so far as saying Moi was betterthan Kibaki. I think a majority of things have improved drastically under Kibaki.

My problem with Kibaki is that we had high expectations for him to transcend tribal and divisive politics and also to bring corruption under control and bring integrity to public service. He disappointed by during AngloLeasing barely 2 years into his administration and of course his administration failed us during the pathetic election fiasco. we thought we had left that with the Nyayo era.

When the Kibaki administration was tested, it reverted to it's natural survival instincts instead of taking the high road to safeguard the integrety of the office and government thus securing wananchi's faith in the system. Hence draconian laws like the media bill and lack of an AG prosecuting anyone over the deaths of thousands of displaced kenyans aka IDP.

By design or luck the once divided ODM has suddenly grouped behind the party leader.To the extent they are ready to take his battle with muthaura to parliament. Even the rift valley MPs are now getting soft on the mau forest. Chris could be a dreamer yes but don't you think something is really boiling up. Maybe NSIS have better answers. If they keep mum time will prove us wrong. Congracts for your 2M mark kumekucha kanno

You really are too full of yourself. Ati you are pursuing useful 'leads' to give you a concrete story? If you are yet to provide concrete facts, then why give speculative info, such as that Kibaki might be going to the Hague? Why would Kibaki be going to the Hague and for what? If Kibaki goes there, then why not Raila? Why not wait until you have the facts? What your nonsensical statements amount to is just rumour mongering and cheap Bar talk. I think you spend too much time at Mini Pub in Nairobi West.

Chris I believe the president changed his mind about the media bill due to the fact that he has no control over his rogue politicians. When the Anglo Leasing saga broke out he was well informed before it hit the newspapers and he just kept quiet. But when the story rocked the media he acted. This tells alot. Kibaki does not have the stomach top act on rogue politicians in government and he would rather have them hang in the media then act on the justification that public opinion demands he take that kind of action.All in all Kibaki needs the media to keep a check on the governemnt for him as he does not have any.