These are the results when registered voters are asked: "Suppose the presidential election were held today. If Barack Obama were the Democratic Party's candidate and Mitt Romney were the Republican Party's candidate, who would you vote for Barack Obama, the Democrat or Mitt Romney, the Republican?" Those who are undecided are further asked if they lean more toward Obama or Romney and their leanings are incorporated into the results. Each five-day rolling average is based on telephone interviews with approximately 2,200 registered voters; Margin of error is ±3 percentage points.

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A detailed analysis of Romneys various paths to the 270 electoral votes he would need to claim the presidency suggests he has a ceiling of somewhere right around 290 electoral votes.

While Romneys team would absolutely take a 290-electoral-vote victory, that means he has only 20 electoral votes to play with  a paper-thin margin for error.

Romneys relatively low electoral-vote ceiling isnt unique to him. No Republican presidential nominee has received more than 300 electoral votes in more than two decades. (Vice President George H.W. Bush won 426 electoral votes in his 1988 victory over Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis.)

By contrast, Bill Clinton in 1992 (370 electoral votes) and 1996 (379) as well as Obama in 2008 (365) soared well beyond the 300-electoral-vote marker.

Much of that is attributable to the fact that Democrats have near-certain wins in population (and, therefore, electoral-vote) behemoths such as California (55 electoral voters), New York (29) and Illinois (20).

Much of that is attributable to the fact that Democrats have near-certain wins in population (and, therefore, electoral-vote) behemoths such as California (55 electoral voters), New York (29) and Illinois (20).

Obama will have 260+ EVs in his hip pocket, packaged and guaranteed, before the first vote is tabulated.

That Obama is polling so poorly against a guy who isn’t even the official candidate yet is not good news for Obama. This is now Romney’s race to lose. Basically, at this point all he has to do is not screw up. Please Mitt, no hookers, DUIs or showing up at a campaign in blackface.

Bad news for the the 100s of FReepers who are pumping for an Øbama victory?

Worse news for the GOP-E morons like yourself who think nominating a guy who is unpopular and who takes so many key GOP campaign issues off the table is such a great idea.

The variances in the Gallup polling are all within a normal MOE. Romney's approval rating is 34 percent, lower than Obama's. How the presumptive GOP isn't trouncing a president with such a back economy around his neck is indicative of how bad a choice Romney is.

But go ahead, bash the FReepers who point that out instead of the morons who wanted him so badly that they let him engage in scorched-earch politics to destroy any alternatives.

"11) GS Analyst Index declined to 52.1 in April from 58.1 in March  consistent with other signs that growth has slowed. The Goldman Sachs Analyst Index (GSAI) dropped 6 points to 52.1 in April from 58.1 in March. The composition was also weak, consistent with other signs that growth has slowed (Chicago PMI, Empire State and Philadelphia Fed)."

Romney cannot win because conservatives will not vote for him. Conservatives will not vote for him partly because he cannot win any way (apart from being RINO). Since Republican Party's constituents are conservatives, the only way the Republican candidate to win over Obama is by having a conservative candidate who is not Romney. But of course, conservatives couldn't agree on the candidate. So Romney wins the nomination. Unfortunately, Romney cannot win because conservatives will not vote for him.

Unlike the GOP primary, Obama will be able to drop that right back on Romney. That was Mitt's only advantage in the primary - money to destroy any alternative to Mitt. Romney won't have it in the general. I don't think the geniuses in the GOP-E thought that far ahead when they stood back as Romney launched a scorched-earth campaign to compensate for his low levels of initial support.

National polling isnt as important as state polling because we elect on a state bases”

You are absolutely correct.

That said...I think at somepoint, if for example, Romney were to be 3 points on top naitonally for an extended period, it seems that those national polls sort of “pull” the state polls in that driection over time. It is interesting to watch every 4 years, and I doubt this year will be any different....

The national polls are irrelevant....except indirectly and it seems in that way they gain relevance as fall approaches

I believe we are witnessing a turn in the trend which ultimately will prove that Romney is not limited to 190 delegates because we are likely to see not only the return of Ohio to the Republican fold but Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as well. The states could easily be coupled with the Southwest, New Hampshire to produce a substantial victory.

As the trend manifests itself it will gather momentum and at some place along that trend line Obama will make a decision about whether to contrive an October Surprise. I have been warning since February or early March that we should not fear the Ides of March But Beware the Surprises of October (http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2854282/posts).

As the numbers trend against Obama it becomes increasingly likely that we will see a strike on Iran.

The debates are basically going to be Obama saying ad nauseum, You did the same thing, Mitt.

That depends. If SCOTUS strikes down Obamacare, Romney will have a huge card up his sleeve in that he'll always be able to answer, "at least what I did was constitutional" whenever the subject gets brought up.

If SCOTUS doesn't strike down Obamacare, yes, this charge becomes more difficult to defend against.

Unfortunately, Romney cannot win because conservatives will not vote for him.

Bull. A handful of Freepers may stay home or vote for Virgil Goode but all polling currently indicates that Romney is slowly winning over conservative voters, many of whom supported him (albeit begrudgingly) in their state primaries. They'll show up to vote for him.

This is a spin poll, notice its “registered voters’ not “likely voters”. The spin doctors want to show nobama just barely behind to juice up sympathy. If they showed the butthead was 15% down, then his friends would be so down they would not bother to vote.

Propaganda does not sleep, thrust damn little you read or hear from those with a purpose.

32
posted on 05/01/2012 9:07:32 AM PDT
by X-spurt
(Its time for ON YOUR FEET or on your knees)

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