March 31, 2011

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Unlike Plouffe, who became a revered figure among Obama supporters, Messina begins the re-election campaign with a significant amount of baggage. As a former chief of staff to Baucus and deputy to Emanuel, Messina has clashed with progressive activists and grassroots Obama supporters both inside and outside Washington over political strategy and on issues like healthcare reform and gay rights, alienating parts of the very constituencies that worked so hard for Obama in 2008 and that the campaign needs to reinspire and activate in 2012. Obama’s fixer has arguably created as many problems as he’s solved. “He is not of the Obama movement,” says one top Democratic strategist in Washington. “There is not a bone in his body that speaks to or comprehends the idea of a movement and that grassroots energy. To me, that’s bothersome.”

Messina’s allies say he’s a savvy, experienced operative who played a key role in the passage of Obama’s legislative agenda, and is well prepared to lead a tough campaign for the president... But other Democrats interviewed for this article, who have dealt with Messina in the past, questioned whether he’s the right man for the job, and what his elevation says about the kind of re-election campaign Obama plans to run. (Some declined to speak on the record for fear of retribution.)

Under Messina, Obama ’12 could more closely resemble the electoral strategy of Baucus or Bill and Hillary Clinton—cautious, controlling, top-down in structure and devoted to small-bore issues that blur differences between the parties—than Obama ’08, a grassroots effort on a scale modern politics had never seen. “It was a major harbinger to me, when Obama hired him, that we were not going to get ‘change we can believe in,’” says Ken Toole, a former Democratic state senator and public service commissioner in Montana. “Messina has a lot of talents, but he’s extremely conservative in his views on how to do politics. He’s got a tried-and-true triangulation methodology, and that’s never gonna change.

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This is the smart stragegy. Too many people in the Obama camp still think it was all about them. Their charisma. Their genius. Their other worldly talents. Blinding arrogance on their parts. 2008 was more about a protest vote against the policies of Bush, the novelty of the first black president and a fear-based reaction to the economic meltdown. Anyone who thinks they are going to recapture that lighting in a bottle are just being willfully obtuse about what drove 2008. Obama has loads of cash. Obama has a motivated institutional base. Obama's best play is a conventional campaign where he can bring his massive resources to bear. I don't think it will be enough given real unemployment, real inflation, instability abroad, the rising deficit, the shrinking dollar the collapsing housing marketing and the real possiblity of a double dip receission, but that doesn't mean it's not his best shot.

Baucus, Bill & Hillary Clinton have a pretty good won-lost record in General Elections. Since that is the campaign manager's job - to win, I don't see what the problem is. Unless you have another goal than victory.

The Nation has been a joke since the Glass scandal as The New York Times since its minority hires fiasco under Raines. The Left has shown it may help elect a President, but once in their candidate becomes either a joke like Carter or tries to survive like President Obama in the real world. Where do they go if they don't support Obama? They have no place to go.