2014 Population projections for Tasmania and its Local Government Areas

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The Department of Treasury and Finance has prepared population projections for Tasmania covering a period of 50 years (from 2013 to 2062), and for Tasmania's Local Government Areas for 25 years (from 2013 to 2037). These replace the Tasmanian population projections that Treasury prepared in 2008 for the Demographic Change Advisory Council, which has since been disbanded.

The Summary Paper (below) provides a brief background to the development of the population projections, sets out the assumptions regarding fertility, mortality and migration used and briefly discusses the projection results.

Click on the links below to see the Summary Paper and to download the updated population projections for Tasmania.

Key results

Tasmania's estimated population as at March 2014 was 514 684 persons. By June 2062, Tasmania's population is projected to be almost 589 000 persons under the medium series, with an average growth rate of 0.3 per cent per year. Tasmania's population increases each year over this period until 2058, though at a decreasing rate. For the final four years, Tasmania's population declines marginally under the medium series.

Under the high series, Tasmania's population is projected to be almost 768 000 persons by June 2062, with an average growth rate of 0.8 per cent per year. Under the low series, Tasmania's population is projected to be 459 000 persons by June 2062, with an average growth rate of negative 0.2 per cent per year. For information on how to interpret the high and low series, please see the following contextual information or the Summary paper.

Tasmanian Population, Actual and Projected, 1975 to 2062

Contextual information

What are these projections?

The projections were released in December 2014 and are the most up to date set of projections produced by the Tasmanian Government.

The projections present potential scenarios for the composition and size of the Tasmanian population under certain assumptions regarding natural population increase and migration. No allowance has been made for the impact of any future policies that may influence future population trends.

Are these population forecasts?

No - they are not forecasts. These projections are an indication of possible population outcomes, with different assumptions based on recent population trends.

Treasury advises that the population projections should not be used as a stand-alone decision making tool. Rather they provide a range of plausible outcomes that Government agencies and range of private and public businesses might take into account in their future planning.

For governments, these projections provide a baseline case of plausible population scenarios against which any Government targets can be considered and potentially measured against

What has been released?

Three projection series have been released - high, medium and low. These population projections are produced with different assumptions because future levels of fertility, mortality and migration cannot be predicted with any certainty.

Of the three, the medium series is based on assumptions that are most similar to recent trends. Compared to the medium series, the high series assumes higher levels of components of population change in terms of fertility, life expectancy, and net in-migration, while the low series assumes lower levels. As a result, the high series results in a larger projected population by the end of projection period and the low series results in a lower population.

These series should not be interpreted as upper and lower bounds for potential population growth. They serve to show how the population of Tasmania and its LGAs might change based on the different underlying assumptions. They are designed to provide plausible trends of future population changes based on past trends and assumptions.

Why release such detailed data?

Compared to population projections released by other jurisdictions and the ABS, data in the results workbook have been released at a high level of detail. This is not a reflection of superior quality projections or more reliable projections for any specific dissagregation of data. This level of data has been released to meet the data need of users of the projection data as much as possible through this one data source.

Methodology

The projections were created using a cohort component method. This method projects each cohort of people of the same age throughout their lifetime according to assumed rates of mortality, fertility and migration. The projections in this paper are based on the methodology developed in 2008 and use 2011 Census data and the LGA population data as at 30 June 2012. This methodology is used by the ABS and other Australian jurisdictions to create projections.

The updated projection results for Tasmania are based on the summation of the LGA projections. The 2013 and 2014 State-level projections differ marginally due to changes in migration assumptions and more recent ABS data. A 'bottom up' model is used which is designed to produce plausible LGA projections which then aggregate to State-level results. This also resulted in the State-level results being slightly different from the 2013 outcomes.

The year reference (e.g. 2011, 2031, 2051, etc) refers to the estimated population at 30 June in that year.

Key assumptions

The projection model is based on estimated population trends for migration (interstate, intrastate and international), fertility and mortality. Assumptions have been formed at the State level, which have been adjusted for the LGAs, guided by 5-year trends to 2012 (based on ABS demographic data) and comparative statistics based on the 2006 and 2011 Census.

Summary of assumptions - Tasmania

Series

Fertility (total fertility rate)

Mortality (life expectancy at birth)

Net Interstate Migration

Net Overseas Migration

High

Constant rate of 2.15 babies per woman.

To reach 90.8 years for males and 92.5 years for females by 2062.

Net gain of 1 000 persons per year.

Net gain of 2 000 persons per year.

Medium

2.15 babies per woman in 2013, decreasing to 1.95 babies per woman by 2023 and remaining constant thereafter.

To reach 85.4 years for males and 87.5 years for females by 2062.

Zero net interstate migration.

Net gain of 1 250 persons per year.

Low

2.15 babies per woman in 2013, decreasing to 1.85 babies per woman by 2023 and remaining constant thereafter.