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He started so young that he's just now 35. Assuming he stays healthy, he would only need to average 100 hits per year until age 40 to reach 3000.

It seems like he's getting more appreciation these days. It helps that he's not in Seattle anymore, where no one was really watching and his raw numbers were down. That big season in Boston really boosted his national profile among the average fan. That was the first time he ever even made the All-Star team.

Even 2 or 3 more pretty good years will put him close to 80 WAR and 2800+ hits. That should be a pretty easy trip into the Hall at that point.

I know that this has been discussed here frequently, but I doubt that Beltre has an easy trip to the hall. The excerpt mentions Buddy Bell, and while Beltre is better than Bell, you can see the voters not seeing it. Bell was a five time all-star who won a bunch of gold gloves. Beltre is a three time all star, with fewer gold gloves. He'll have better mainstream offensive stats than Bell, but he also played through the heart of the silly ball era. And not that many voters pay attention to WAR. Maybe 3000 hits will do it. I dunno.

Even 2 or 3 more pretty good years will put him close to 80 WAR and 2800+ hits. That should be a pretty easy trip into the Hall at that point.

He's going to be at 2600+ by the end of this year, so one good year gets him to 2800. Two or three good years and he's past 3000 easy. At that point, he's Craig Biggio, and gets in pretty easily, right?

Man, when he became a free agent from Seattle, I wanted him _so bad_ for Philly.

As 9 notes, Boston already had him and merely had to meet his 5/80 demands. People in Boston loved him, he seemed to like being there and he was a perfect fit. Youk was doing his GG thing over at first and all they had to do was just plunk Beltre at 3rd and 3/4 of the infield was set.

Beltre will need 3000 hits to make the HOF. It's not right, but that's the way it is. We know he's a defensive whiz, however the MSM will still only see 4 GG(Jeter has 5!) and think, ok, pretty good, but not Brooksian.

Chipper had that awesome switch hitter thing going, Boggs and Brett the 3000 hits and .300+ BA and Brooks could field a bit.
Beltre needs that key hook. And that hook will be 3000 hits.

Again, it's not right, but that's the way it will be. I think he's worthy now.

3,000 hits should put him over, but it won't make him Craig Biggio by any means. Biggio: one franchise, popular in the press, gritty, scrappy, played all over the diamond. Beltre: Sullen, sulky, only plays big in contract years, on his fourth franchise. Not my perceptions, but I think at least somewhat accurate of what the perception the BBWAA is.

I get the sense that Beltre's greatness is gaining wider appreciation. Or is that just the echo chamber in here?

I think it's growing, earlier this season, the Cardinal announcers were talking about him for some reason, and mentioned "possible" hofer. As his hit totals go up, it's going to be tough to keep the talk down.

3,000 hits should put him over, but it won't make him Craig Biggio by any means. Biggio: one franchise, popular in the press, gritty, scrappy, played all over the diamond. Beltre: Sullen, sulky, only plays big in contract years, on his fourth franchise. Not my perceptions, but I think at least somewhat accurate of what the perception the BBWAA is.

Agreed, that is pretty much his national perception, it will tone down some by the time he is out of the game and eligible for voting, but I think he has more of an uphill battle than Biggio does. Although Biggio has that ridiculous unfounded "roid taint" surrounding him, that has slowed his acceptance down.

He started so young that he's just now 35. Assuming he stays healthy, he would only need to average 100 hits per year until age 40 to reach 3000.

I started watching him when he was REALLY young with the Dodgers. He had a few false start seasons (he must have been 19 or 20), one of which included a botched appendectomy that kept him out for a ton of time. He seems like he's been playing forever, but he could have been playing even longer.

Sullen, sulky, only plays big in contract years, on his fourth franchise. Not my perceptions, but I think at least somewhat accurate of what the perception the BBWAA is.

His perception is getting better. Only recently there was one of those really long pictorial articles on how he's played with pain over the years.

In ten years, when Beltre is up for election, the electorate will be ten years younger than the one that voted in Biggio. I mean, they'll have had ten more years to be inculcated with sabermetric stuff and ten less years of the old school doctrine.

I'm guessing this is sarcastic, but why would anyone ever put artificial surface in an outdoor stadium? I've read that they used to have it at Cincinnati, too. Who looks at heat absorbing, knee wrecking astroturf and says "I need to get me some of that"?

3,000 hits should put him over, but it won't make him Craig Biggio by any means. Biggio: one franchise, popular in the press, gritty, scrappy, played all over the diamond. Beltre: Sullen, sulky, only plays big in contract years, on his fourth franchise. Not my perceptions, but I think at least somewhat accurate of what the perception the BBWAA is.

True, but it could be another decade before he's on the ballot. The BBWAA will look a lot different by then.

3,000 hits should put him over, but it won't make him Craig Biggio by any means. Biggio: one franchise, popular in the press, gritty, scrappy, played all over the diamond. Beltre: Sullen, sulky, only plays big in contract years, on his fourth franchise. Not my perceptions, but I think at least somewhat accurate of what the perception the BBWAA is.

Playing devil's advocate here: Beltre is different than a lot of other 35-year-olds in that he's still truly building his HOF case, not just accumulating counting stats. If he keeps up this level of play until he reaches 3,000 hits he will have the benefit of being viewed as a guy who didn't just hang around to reach a milestone, but rather as a guy who truly earned it.

Beltre will be interesting. He'll be guaranteed if he gets to 3000 hits although it still wouldn't surprise me if it took him a couple of ballots. (He'll probably have about 450 HR if he gets to 3000 hits.)

Not that there are many precedents to go on, but it seems the writers are a bit hard on late peak guys. It's a lot better to be considered to be on a HoF track at 30 than it is to get on the track after 30.

Through age 30, Beltre had no chance of being elected. The voters (existing and emerging) were giving him no thought at all.

It's his massive offensive emergence in his 30s that is putting him into play. Who goes from being a 270 hitter to a consistent 310-320 hitter at 31?

Baseball is a funny game ... Andruw Jones v. Adrian Beltre through age 30:

Beltre will need 3000 hits to make the HOF. It's not right, but that's the way it is.

I don't know. Even if he doesn't reach 3000, he'll be damn close. Throw in Chipper power numbers (maybe 450 homers and 1600 rbi) and a few gold gloves, and I doubt the writers would be able to ignore a 3B with that kind of resume forever. He won't be first ballot, but I think he'd be elected before his 15 years were up.

Him getting 3,000 is, at this moment, likely. But him staying healthy enough to not be Biggio and dragging his ass over the line is no given.

If he followed the same path as Biggio (including the ass-dragging) from here until the end of his career, he'd finish with about 3,500 hits. That's not going to happen, but it shows just how far along he is.

He's extraordinarily likely to finish with more than 3,000 hits. He's very likely to do it rather comfortably.

Nothing is guaranteed, but he has absolutely everything possible going his way. He's only 35 and just 497 hits away. He's still an excellent hitter and solid fielder, who has room to move down the defensive spectrum. And he's never going to rack up those pesky walks that get in the way of base knocks. Hell, he led all of MLB in hits just last year.

There are two of them plus Rose and Molitor spent a reasonable amount of time there.

On the "certainty" of 3000 ... he currently sits 31st through age 35 with a shot at #20 by season's end.

Of the 46 guys with at least 2400 hits by 35, 17 made it to 3000, with ARod likely to make it if he ever plays again (61 hits short).

Beltre's been doing really well I know but I still suspect he's more likely to be Damon, Alomar, Vlad, Jim Rice. And Rfield has him as slightly negative defensively last year and this.

Yount's not a bad comp. Similar very early start, similar early 30s offensive peak, pretty similar through age 30 numbers except with 700 more PA and 300 more hits. Yount had nearly 2900 hits through age 35 and added just 264 more hits before he was done. Of course he was also still an average-ish player in his last season and likely could have stuck around another season or two if he'd needed to to reach a milestone.

The next 1.5 years could be crucial. If he's at 2750 through age 36, that's #17 all-time and guys like Damon and Alomar are left behind. He'd be ahead of Ripken, Kaline, Carew, Mays and Murray (and Biggio and Brock) who all made it and 100 ahead of F Robinson who came up about 60 short (and probably could have made it if he hadn't turned his attention to managing). The only argument against it (other than we never know when a player like this will collapse totally or sustain a serious injury) is that there's no way their teams weren't gonna stick with Ripken, Kaline, Carew, Mays, Biggio, Brock to get them past 3,000. I'm not sure Beltre is beloved enough by any particular team/fanbase to let him play out the string if that's what he needs.

Beltre's been doing really well I know but I still suspect he's more likely to be Damon, Alomar, Vlad, Jim Rice. And Rfield has him as slightly negative defensively last year and this.

What similarity does he have to any of those fellows other than Alomar, who spectacularly cliff dove? He's simply a vastly better player, right now, than any of those other three gentlemen were at a similar point in their careers. He's likely to be sitting at nearly 2,600 hits by the end of this season. Yeah, I like his chances of 400 and change more before he calls it quits.

But if you'd like to make a wager on the likelihood of him getting 3K, I'd love to make it official.

Last night Victor Martinez air kissed Beltre as he rounded 3rd during his HR trot. Later, after Sanchez hit Beltre with a pitch, Beltre fake threatened to attack Cabrera when Beltre got to first base. Both Beltre's reaction to Martinez and Cabrera's reaction to Beltre were funny. They act like they can't smile, but you can see they want to.

+Beltre has a reputation of being sullen and sulky? He seems beloved around the league.+

Unlike Biggio, the man ain't white. Seriously, anyone who was 18 in the national spotlight may have moments where "sullen" is applied to them. He's playing to well to get credit for being an elder statesman at the moment, but that will come...

From the mainstream press, I don't see the Biggio comp at all. Closer, I think, would be a generation earlier: Eddie Murray. Murray was considered sullen and sulky, played for a bunch of teams in the second half of his career, and only got begruding respect from the press, but seemed well liked by his fellow players. I suspect if Murray retired with 2750 hits and 475 homers instead of clearing both of the historical milestones, he would have fared poorly in HOF voting. And while I recognize the massive defensive difference between a very good 3B and an ok 1B / DH, of the players since integration who are inducted, 3B need to hit like 1B because the voters simply don't adjust for the positional differences. Beltre needs the milestones or to die taking a plane load of supplies to earthquake victims and not just wither away at the end of his career.

I'm guessing this is sarcastic, but why would anyone ever put artificial surface in an outdoor stadium? I've read that they used to have it at Cincinnati, too. Who looks at heat absorbing, knee wrecking astroturf and says "I need to get me some of that"?

It was hot, looked funny, but it encouraged line drive hitters and speed players, something that I think is more fun than the TTO style of ball so prevelent today. I enjoy seeing a blend of styles; nothing could be more fun than watching the Herzog Cards play the Wallbanger Brew or for regular season games, the Weaver v Mauch matchups that have largely disappeared. I don't want the turf itself, but I want the style of play that it encouraged. Maybe turn up the stimp-meter on the greens ...

I'm guessing this is sarcastic, but why would anyone ever put artificial surface in an outdoor stadium? I've read that they used to have it at Cincinnati, too.

Sometimes I am reminded with great force how young some of the posters here are. Yes, Cincinnati had artificial turf in an outdoor stadium. So did Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, St. Louis, Toronto, San Francisco (briefly), and the South Side of Chicago (briefly, infield only). Did I miss any?

Do you think part of that reputation stems from the fact that his face just has a naturally angry look to it? If he were a woman, I believe the term would be "resting bi-otch face."

Maybe. When he's not smiling, he does look kind of tough and angry, but he smiles often enough and seems to enjoy a fine rep around the league. He's crazy popular with the Texas fanbase and is regarded as an important clubhouse leader. Also, he speaks excellent English and is cooperative with reporters, so I doubt he's getting dinged with the "non-communicative Latino guy" penalty.

I know that certain ballparks favor pitching or hitting to a certain degree, and based on all ballplayers, it's usually on the order of up to 15% or maybe a touch more at the extremes.

But I really wonder how much of it is a psychological thing. Yes, Safeco in Seattle is a good pitcher's park. But some hitters such as Beltre acted like they would never hit again if they kept playing there. The precipitous drop in his stats was way beyond anything you could really attribute to the park itself. Others have had the same issues.

When Beltre went to Boston it was like his bat was reborn and his numbers jumped dramatically, leading to the renaissance his career is currently going through. I know Fenway is a good place to hit, but it's not Coors Field circa 2000, although the jump in Beltre's stats might make you think it was.

It's just weird how some players seem to react to certain parks to much bigger extremes than one would think logical.

I know that certain ballparks favor pitching or hitting to a certain degree, and based on all ballplayers, it's usually on the order of up to 15% or maybe a touch more at the extremes.

But I really wonder how much of it is a psychological thing. Yes, Safeco in Seattle is a good pitcher's park. But some hitters such as Beltre acted like they would never hit again if they kept playing there. The precipitous drop in his stats was way beyond anything you could really attribute to the park itself. Others have had the same issues.

When Beltre went to Boston it was like his bat was reborn and his numbers jumped dramatically, leading to the renaissance his career is currently going through. I know Fenway is a good place to hit, but it's not Coors Field circa 2000, although the jump in Beltre's stats might make you think it was.

It's just weird how some players seem to react to certain parks to much bigger extremes than one would think logical.

Could be partially psychological, but a right handed bat with good but not great pull power, puts the ball in play a lot, relatively few walks is exactly the kind of hitter Safeco punishes the most. And that's Beltre to a T. Park effects average out across different hitter types, but it's perfectly plausible that certain hitter profiles are really hurt (or helped) by certain parks much, much more than a simple glance at park effects would indicate.

Could be partially psychological, but a right handed bat with good but not great pull power, puts the ball in play a lot, relatively few walks is exactly the kind of hitter Safeco punishes the most. And that's Beltre to a T.

I doubt the writers would be able to ignore a 3B with that kind of resume forever. He won't be first ballot, but I think he'd be elected before his 15 years were up.

They took six years to figure out Mathews with a much less crowded ballot (totally different electorate, I'll concede). Given 15 years though, I think you're right that he'll eventually get in via the writers.

They took six years to figure out Mathews with a much less crowded ballot (totally different electorate, I'll concede). Given 15 years though, I think you're right that he'll eventually get in via the writers.

And remember, that by the time his 15th year comes up on the ballot, it will be 21-27 years from now, that means today's 30 year old writers are the 50 year old, old farts, and today's old farts are dust in the wind. An entire generation of writers who were weaned on saber stats. (sure you'll have the prematurely old farts like Buster Olney still around, but the majority of writers in Beltres 10th-15th year on the ballot, will not have worked one day in print media)

It's closer than I'd like, but I'll still say guys with ink in their veins own a slight majority.

After I posted my comment, I was really tempted to edit it,since it's a for life thing among voters, I know that my comment was incorrect. Majority of the voters will have started out in the ink field. But left it up there, because a little over the top comment, still gets the point across.

Not 500 doubles OR 500 HR independently, the combination of 500 doubles AND 500 HR. It's a pretty elite group, and one which excludes some rather surprising names. Obviously Beltre has 500 doubles, but he's unlikely to make it to 500 HR.

What similarity does he have to any of those fellows other than Alomar, who spectacularly cliff dove?

That for much of his career he simply hasn't been an elite offensive player. I don't trust miracle transformations -- granted, it's a long miracle now so I'm probably wrong.

And Vlad who at 35 put up a line of 300/345/496 in 643 PA -- only good for a 119 OPS+ but that's not really much different than Beltre 2014. Vlad was done despite hitting 290 with 163 hits the next year.

Damon became a consistently good hitter in his 30s. Damon was actually slightly more durable for these ages and, being a leadoff hitter, added over 1000 hits which, depending on how Beltre does the rest of this season, will be about the same as Beltre. At the age of 35, Damon had 4.2 WAR and 4.1 at 34 ... and would have 3.0 at 36 and 2.5 at 37, adding about 300 hits, still adding +7 per year in running and DP ... and then he was toast.

So neither Vlad nor Damon had gone off a cliff by 35 and Damon still hadn't gone off two years later. Rice and Alomar were both pretty much done by 35 but all that necessarily means is that Beltre has made it at least two years longer than they did.

Also, only 24 players have played at least 2200 games through age 35. Beltre is currently 11th and could be top 5 by the time the season's done. But of the other 23, 14 didn't make it another 300 games although ARod still might. Of the 10 guys currently ahead of him, 5 played in 475+ games the rest of their career although one of those was Staub who got only 1000 PA out of that. Two of those 4 guys (Kaline and Brooks) got just enough hits to push Beltre over the line.

Hardly determinative but it's the IFs on that list that didn't fare too well. Yount (not an IF by that time), ARod (although he'd have made it this year), Mathews, Alomar, Bell, Santo, Fox ... Brooks had enough left that would push Beltre over (esp since he should be able to beat Brooks BA) and Ripken who limped home but put up more than enough to get Beltre over.

Ahh, but who was done by 35. A fair question although not one I'm planning to answer in any detail. Looking at hits for ages 32-35, by the end of the year, Beltre could finish as high as 3rd among this group of players. He should pretty comfortably pass all of these guys by season's end but currently he is behind Alomar, Yount, Fox and Ripken and a bit ahead of Bell and Brooks with only Ripken and Brooks getting enough hits the rest of the way to push Beltre past 3000.

Like I said in the earlier post -- I know Beltre is going really well right now. But when performances come out of nowhere, I figure there's a real good chance they'll disappear without a moment's notice too. This is partly my concern about his defense which apparently has dropped considerably in the last two years. He's been a quite durable player but has had some injuries in 3 of the last 6 seasons (averaging 140 games per over the last 5.5 seasons). He used to steal about a dozen bases per year and has been stealing only 1-2 since turning 30. It's probably nothing to be particularly concerned about but he's been getting about 10% of his starts at DH since going to Texas -- which he could move to full-time if he keeps hitting like he has.

There are 32 guys in the expansion era who had at least 700 hits from ages 31-34 (I'm tired of worrying about his half-season). Beltre ranks 17th on this list -- behind Orlando Cabrera if you can believe that. Of those 31, 14 got the 574 hits that Beltre needed after age 34 with Mark Grace just missing so let's count him. We've discovered the guy who might be his most favorable comp -- Jeff Kent, noted late bloomer, had 857 hits from 35 on which would send Beltre sailing across the line.

In general this is a much more promising list. Maury Wills got 672 hits, even Tejada (the median) got nearly 500 -- not enough for Beltre but Tejada declined pretty quickly. But there are cautionary tales of course. Billy Williams got 480 the rest of his career -- he hit 333 at 34, his 3rd straight over 300, 2 2nd place MVPs but hit 259 the rest of his career although still a good hitter through 37. Cecil Cooper had become a stud at 28 through 33, regular 300 hitter ... and then declined at 34. Yes, Beltre's made it to 35.5 without doing that but if Cooper can go over at 34, Beltre can at 36. That was 307/341/508, 138 OPS+ to 275/307/386, 96 OPS+ with a decent bounce back at 35.

Again this is where defense becomes important. Beltre could follow Cooper's dive and be an average hitter from 36-38. If he keeps playing decent defense at 3B, that's still a guy who gets to start as much as he can. But if he starts to give away something close to a win on defense and is an average hitter, that guy's probably done at 37 or 38.

There are so many things that need to go right. Staying healthy. Retaining defensive value. Texas (or another good park for him) signing him after next year. And "natural aging".

Each way I slice it, I come up with about 50%. Add in my gut distrust of out of nowhere improvements and I think he's more likely to not make it. If you want to do a small bet fine.

But, sure, if Beltre maintains anything close to this production for two more full-ish seasons, he's almost certain to make it. That's what we said about ARod after his age 33 season. After his age 35-36 seasons, we talked about Beltran's HoF chances if he had just another 2-3 seasons just like them. We speculated about Ortiz (311 BA from 35-37!).

Wow ... do you know how many 37+ players there are this year with at least 100 PA? Only 14. Only Ortiz has 300+ PA, another 4 have 200+. Only Ortiz and Abreu have an OPS+ over 100. Torii Hunter hit 313 at 36 and 304 at 37 ... and 266 this year (which is more in line with the rest of his career).

Back in 2011 it was still only 17 with 200+ but 8 qualified for the batting title and Helton had 491 PA. 8 guys, including 5 of the "full-timers" had a 100 OPS+ or better. Abreu is on both lists! (as are Ichiro -- doing OK -- and Ibanez). 2008 was also 17 with 4 full-timers and 2 more near 500, 6 with a 100 OPS+.

Probably just a fluke, not a trend, as there were 15 in 2013 with 7 full-timers.

I know that this has been discussed here frequently, but I doubt that Beltre has an easy trip to the hall. The excerpt mentions Buddy Bell, and while Beltre is better than Bell, you can see the voters not seeing it. Bell was a five time all-star who won a bunch of gold gloves. Beltre is a three time all star, with fewer gold gloves. He'll have better mainstream offensive stats than Bell, but he also played through the heart of the silly ball era. And not that many voters pay attention to WAR. Maybe 3000 hits will do it. I dunno.

- 3000 hits is no longer gonna do it - see craig biggio, who obviously took steroids because he went from 5-9 165 to 5-9 170 over his 20 year career, especially being friends early on with ken caminiti before cammy took roids. and being on the same team with roger clemens at the end of his career. and also being on the same team as bagwell because bagwell HAD to have taken roids or else he would not have hit home runs int he Dome because he didn't hit them at AA because nobody ever learns how to hit for power without roids. EVER

- and beltre hates having his head touched and if that is not proof of HGH/roids use i don't know what is. it also makes him a Bad Guy. also him switching teams a lot - no loyalty. and he tanked for seattle so as he could get traded to boston. or signed by boston. whatevs. is he known for Playing The Game The Right Way? is he a Guy Respected By Players Young and Old? How many RINGZ did he lead his team to?

there are and will be all KINDS of reasons beltre won't get in. especially not "feeling" like a HOFer. unlike, say, david ortiz, whose dWAR is beyond reproach

Man, when he became a free agent from Seattle, I wanted him _so bad_ for Philly.

Angels were real close. It was pretty much assumed that's where he was headed at one point, they needed a 3B and had the money to blow. Seems like they just nickled and dimed instead of agreeing to his reasonable contract demands, then Texas steps in by surprise and snatches him up.

Texas didn't desperately need him, they had Michael Young still signed for a few years and coming off a 21 HR, 91 RBI season. They just saw opportunity staring them in the face and grabbed it. Then the Angels, desperate to spend that money somehow, trades for Vernon Wells, gives up Napoli, and Mike ends up in Texas for a career year a few days later.

2011 Angels finished 10 games back of the Rangers. Napoli and Beltre combined for 11.2 WAR, Wells -.4. Put the good ones on the Angels and it's a 20 game swing in the standings. Angels were down on Napoli at the time for who knows what reason, so there's a good chance he would have been traded somewhere for minimal return no matter what, but Beltre alone might have swung the 2011 team into the playoffs.

to this minute i do NOT get why the angels were so eager to get rid of napoli. agree he was not jonathan lucroy with the glove, but he certainly wasn't matt LeCroy

i have come to the understanding that most of these things are personal - teams have people they do and do not want to succeed and very often, they get rid of people who succeeded against odds because the player proved them wrong in their judgement.

so very opposite of the luhnow/mejdal model of always being the dealer at a poker game - in choosing/keeping ballplayers (and they don't even stick to their stupid models neither)

to this minute i do NOT get why the angels were so eager to get rid of napoli. agree he was not jonathan lucroy with the glove, but he certainly wasn't matt LeCroy

Managers have a weird attitude towards catchers. Since Scioscia was a defense first catcher, he thinks that defense is the only tool that matters and guys like Napoli who can hit, MUST be bad with the glove. Without evidence that seems to be the assumption people take in regards to catchers.

Speaking of Lucroy, if you talk to a casual Cardinal fan, they will say his offense is good but he's a poor defender, even if they have never seen him play or heard about him, because the assumption is that you can't be a good defensive catcher and hit(unless your name was Bench....or you came up as a poor hitter and got better like Molina)

Lke #16, I remember when Beltre came up w/the Dodgers; very difficult for them to find a 3rd basemen for many years until they got Cey. Beltre was very good at a young age; in considering his late peak.

A ballplayer who plays like he does at 20 and 21 (reminding me of Andruw Jones in that respect) has a chance to be great; also a player who plays like he did at 25. It would not surprise me to hear of a player who played as Beltre did at 20/21 and 25 will play as Beltre has from 31 to the present.

What happened in the other years? The botched appendectomy may have stunted his development. Other comments have been made about his time in Seattle (which also included an injury from being hit by ball in the jewels, so to speak); but at this point it is post hoc speculation.

A quibble when mentioning George Brett (as great he is) at 3B; he played about 900 games at 1b or DH; was done as 3B after his age 33 season. Beltre has to date played significantly more games than Brett. Also, I don't recall Brett as having a great rep with the glove, but I did not see him much at the time.

Also, I don't recall Brett as having a great rep with the glove, but I did not see him much at the time.

Defensively, Brett has the same problem that Mike Mussina does as a pitcher: there were several all time greats at the exact same time who took a little shine away from him. Brett came up at the tail end of Brooks and played through the entirety of Graig Nettles, Mike Schmidt and the original A-Rod, Aurelio Rodriguez. He wasn't as good as those super defenders and because of that, never got a great fielding reputation. But he had quick reactions and moved well with a reasonably strong arm. I'm convinced that had he come up in the era of Jeter, Nomar, Tejada and the Centaur, he would have been a SS. I don't know what the numbers show (and I'm very leary of pre PBP defensive metrics anyway). From the eyeball test, towards the end, the injuries caught up to him, but through the 70s into the early 80s, he was a plus defender.

Bump this one up; Beltre continues to crease the ball (an expression Ron Fairly used when announcing for the Angels).

Beltre deservedly made the all star squad.

Hasn't Donaldson's bat cooled quite a bit? I don't quite accept the defensive component for WAR (although that also is a great part of Beltre's value). Beltre is +++ in the field playing 90% of his games at 3rd. I am skeptical that currently Donaldson is a significantly better fielder than Beltre.

Brett would not have been a shortstop; the national exposure I remember of him was in the playoff series of the 70's; similar to Chipper Jones (who did play some games at short); defense was iffy. Back then one did not have the opportunity to watch every game. But the flea, Freddie Patek, had a cannon at short.

Sorry for the Rangers (and Beltre) the way the season is going. The posters here predicted the disaster of the Fielder/Kinsler trade (not even a challenge trade, but the 2b outhit the 1b); hopefully Prince bounces back (no pun intended) next year.

If a 3B fields a notch below Brooks Robinson while hitting a notch or two below Chipper Jones while playing longer at the position than all but a couple of players that spells hall of fame.

If Beltre were hit by the proverbial bus tomorrow, and he wasn't elected (and probably wouldn't be), he would be the greatest non-steroid snub in HOF history. A reasonable decline phase starting today puts him so far into the no brainer territory it's ridiculous.

With several decent HOF candiates not being tied to one team, I could see the blank cap that Maddux is going to have on his plaque be more common

Its hard to imagine Beltre going in as a Dodger but yet most of his at bats were as a Dodger
Beltran is hard to imagine with any cap
McGriff Braves, Rays, or Jays
Piazza Met or Dodger
Vlad Angel or Expo

McGriff did have his best seasons in Toronto but 45 of his 50 playoff games were with Atlanta and I believe his favorite mgr to play for was Cox. He also won a WS & was part of 2 Pennant winners/4 NL Easf Division winners. As far as Tampa Bay, that is his hometown and he was the franchise's first star player but that was also when the franchise was the cellar dweller Devil Rays. He could choose Toronto on his plaque because he came up through their minors after the trade from NY

Beltre has 966 games with the Dodgers & 518 with the Rangers. He'll likely, barring trade, play for TX through 2016 which would put him at a little over 900 games with the franchise (barring injury)

Beltre has 966 games with the Dodgers & 518 with the Rangers. He'll likely, barring trade, play for TX through 2016 which would put him at a little over 900 games with the franchise (barring injury)

Despite having played roughly 450 fewer games there, Beltre's Texas career is extremely close to his Dodger career in WAR - the Rangers will become his plurality-of-WAR team by the end of the year if he keeps playing anything close to as well as he is right now.

Has he commented on this? I don't remember. I can't imagine him not going in as a Met, the intensity of his time there - even if decently fueled by immense tragedy - has to be a pretty big deal in his mind.

Despite having played roughly 450 fewer games there, Beltre's Texas career is extremely close to his Dodger career in WAR - the Rangers will become his plurality-of-WAR team by the end of the year if he keeps playing anything close to as well as he is right now.

Assuming he both plays out his current contract with the Rangers and makes the HOF, Beltre will almost certainly go in as a Ranger.

Speaking of which, Beltre is hitting just over .400 since June 2.

Currently sporting a .341/.385/.545 line, good for a 155 OPS+ and leading the league in BA. Lord knows players can lose it fast in MLB, but it sure looks like he still has plenty in the tank.

Beltre: Sullen, sulky, only plays big in contract years, on his fourth franchise. Not my perceptions, but I think at least somewhat accurate of what the perception the BBWAA is.

I hate when people make arguments like these. I don't think that's his perception in the BBWAA at all. It's more like the most extreme negative characterization of Beltre. If you randomly polled a BBWAA writer asked him to say one word that best describes Beltre, it would not be "sullen" or "sully" or "mercenary". It would most likely be "great defender" or something like. The only guys who are judged by their worst traits are the steroid guys.

When Alomar had that sterling 2001 -- 150 OPS+ for a middle infielder with 30 SB, a 7.3 War season -- he seemed destined for 3,000 hits, being around 600 away. He cratered quickly, though. His total WAR after that was negative, with his best WAR year a 0.6 for the Mets.

But with all that, he still rung up another 335 hits on his way out the door.

Beltre is at 2,528, and is raking this year. Again, barring injury or him waking up tomorrow and forgetting how to hit, he will finish the year above 2,600, and above 76 WAR.

Any normal decline (as opposed to an Alomaresque cliff dive) will find him well above at 3,000 hits and 400 home runs, and a WAR north of 80. That should be more than enough to get him the support of Sabrists and Old Schoolers and the HOF, even if he does not make on the first ballot.

But even a cliff dive will probably eke him over 3,000 and still over 400 HRs (he should actually get there this year), and staying above 70 WAR. That should still be enough to get him in eventually.

So absent his career ending tomorrow, I think the safe bet is he is going in.

If Rolen does well, then that bodes real well for Beltre. But if he does poorly, as he is likely to, I don't think it says much. 2077 hits, 316 HR, 1200ish RBI and Runs, well Beltre is already way ahead of those (except for runs). He's likely to be 1000 hits, 150 HR, and several hundred RBI ahead by the time he's done.

If Rolen does well, then that bodes real well for Beltre. But if he does poorly, as he is likely to, I don't think it says much.

I'd agree with that. If the voters are at all friendly to Rolen, Beltre is in good shape.

Yes, although I don't think Beltre has cause for panic even if the voters don't like Rolen. Although the WAR difference is unlikely to be huge, Beltre's career will have so many more counting stats/milestones, it'll look and feel a lot more like a "typical" HOF career.

32 hitters in MLB history are/were => 2500 H through age 35 - ARod, Jeter, and Beltre are still active, leaving 29.

11 were elected on the 1st ballot; Gehrig and Speaker would have been, if not for the initial "everyone in the history of the game" year. Likewise, Hornsby and Foxx were elected their 5th year out of the league (when voting rules were much different and he was fighting the original influx) and Collins was also blocked in his first 4 votes. That leaves 13.

5 were elected by the Vets committee, but Sam Crawford would likely have been inducted in his first couple of years if there'd been a HOF at the time. 8 more.

Alomar was elected in his 2nd year, Ott his 3rd, Frisch and Paul Waner their 5th. Al Simmons had to wait 8 years, while Harry Heilman waited 11. 2 left.

Pete Rose will never get in the HOF, leaving one hitter to accumulate 2500+ hits through age-35 without a HOF career...

Any guesses?

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Obviously, this is a pretty broad comparison, but given the above I'd say Beltre's chances are pretty good even if he does start declining.

Hasn't Donaldson's bat cooled quite a bit? I don't quite accept the defensive component for WAR (although that also is a great part of Beltre's value). Beltre is +++ in the field playing 90% of his games at 3rd. I am skeptical that currently Donaldson is a significantly better fielder than Beltre.

Yea, Donaldson has cooled off a bit hitting, though is starting to get the groove back. In April and May he was killing it, but 46 OPS+ in June. He is starting to do better the last week though, but his defense has remained spectacular best I can tell. Probably one of the best defenders I've seen on a semi regular basis. I have only noted that Beltre has been impressive. Have not seen him enough to compare though.

interesting thing when I look at JD's splits. Against LHP he is the same as last year ~1000 OPS, but has lost over 140 points against RHP, most of which happened in June.