This has been a week in which ample attention went to American policies in the Middle East, specifically policies toward Syria and Iran. But in the long run, the bigger problem—for the region and for the U.S.—may well lie in Egypt.

And on that front, there was some disquieting news, though it didn’t get nearly as much attention as the election of a new Iranian president or President Barack Obama‘s decision to send arms to Syria’s rebels.

The significant new development was the release of a poll of a whopping 5,029 Egyptians by Zogby Research Associates, two-and-a-half years after the demonstrations in Tahrir Square that toppled Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. What the poll found, according to the summary of Zogby Research analysts, was “a post-Tahrir Egypt in crisis.”

Specifically, the survey found an Egyptian populace that lacks confidence in almost all players in the country’s new political arena, and that increasingly is splintering into factions. “What our findings reveal is a deeply divided society fractured not along demographic lines, but on the basis of ideology and religion,” says Zogby Research in its summary.

The two main Islamic parties—the Muslim Brotherhood of President Mohamed Morsi and the Nour Party—have the confidence of less than 30% of all Egyptian adults. The major opposition groups have the confidence of about 35%. Meanwhile, almost 40% appear to have no confidence in either the government or any of the political parties.

Individual leaders don’t fare any better than their parties. In fact, the only public figure tested who is seen as credible by a majority of Egyptians is Bassem Yousef, a TV satirist.

So why does this matter to the U.S.? Egypt is the largest Arab nation and the one whose revolution and post-revolution experiment with democracy are being most closely watched. It’s also the Arab nation where the U.S. has the most invested, in terms of aid, military cooperation and credibility. Failure of the democratic experiment to win popular approval in Egypt won’t help American dreams of stable democratic governments taking hold in Iraq or Syria—or in Iran for that matter.

And that’s something Mr. Obama will have to ponder, when he isn’t worrying about Iran or Syria.

For critical perspectives on politics and the economy from Jerry Seib & David Wessel, visit Seib & Wessel.

About Washington Wire

Washington Wire is one of the oldest standing features in American journalism. Since the Wire launched on Sept. 20, 1940, the Journal has offered readers an informal look at the capital. Now online, the Wire provides a succession of glimpses at what’s happening behind hot stories and warnings of what to watch for in the days ahead. The Wire is led by Reid J. Epstein, with contributions from the rest of the bureau. Washington Wire now also includes Think Tank, our home for outside analysis from policy and political thinkers.