News analysis

Egypt's presidential election

The count begins

THE vote-counting is far from over, and the official results are not expected until next Tuesday. But short of a dramatic last-minute change in the numbers or the invalidation of votes, Egypt's next president will either be a man who once called Hosni Mubarak his "spiritual father" or one who was repeatedly imprisoned under his regime.

The success of Mohammed Morsi (pictured above on the left), an engineer and a long-time political strategist for the Muslim Brotherhood who now heads its Freedom and Justice Party, comes as little surprise. Mr Morsi had initially trailed in the polls because he was a last-minute stand-in for another man, Khairat al-Shater, the Brotherhood's strongman. Egyptians jokingly called him "the spare tire." But the Brothers got out the vote and, with an estimated 28%, delivered him the largest share of any candidate.

The success of Ahmed Shafiq (shown on the right) is more of an upset. Mr Shafiq, who was the last prime minister of the Mubarak era and, like the former president, a commander of the Egyptian air force, had a late surge. Critics say that he was helped by the army now running the country, and that his success in some provinces—notably the Mubarak family homestead, Menoufiya—is suspicious. Many people, along with all the leading polls, expected Amr Moussa, another establishment candidate, to do better. But Mr Moussa, whom this newspaper endorsed, is expected to score a disappointing 11%, even though he once was the frontrunner.

For many Egyptians, this outcome is a nightmare: they are being forced to choose between the old regime and an organisational man from the emerging establishment of the Muslim Brotherhood, which controls a plurality of seats in parliament. It is made all the more bitter by the fact that the next two candidates, Hamdeen Sabahi, a Nasserist politician and moderate Islamist Abdel Moneim Abolfotoh, together have more votes than any other candidates and once thought of combining their campaigns.

The early results suggest a majority of Egyptians in the centre want neither the old regime nor the Brotherhood. They cling to the hope that someone—anyone—can dislodge Mr Shafiq from his second place by the time all votes are tallied. But this is a long shot. If current estimates hold, the elusive Egyptian centre will have learnt a painful lesson—if it doesn't take to the streets in protest instead.

" One can predict that after Mr Mosri, an engineer, Mr Ayman al-Zawahiri, a doctor, will come to rule Egypt."

I don't think that would come to pass. Not because he would not be welcomed by the Brotherhood, but because he has enough very powerful enemies in that part of the world among his own co-religionists that a hit would be put out on his head with a price tag high enough that, it would be carried out as soon as he could be located. And, we did not even mention those who are not his co-religionists and are actively trying to shorten his miserable wretched life with considerable resources at their disposal. Good old Dr.al-Zawahiri is barking mad, but he is not stupid... like the ones who were dreaming of "people power" in Egypt a mere year ago...

So those in Egypt who aspire for 'democracy', whatever that means, are infinitesimal minority.
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And what if this imaginary centre took to the streets? They are centre only topographically, but in the very bottom of the list statistically.
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Whoever takes the helm in Egypt - ancien régime people or obscurantist Mohammedans - wouldn't think much of squashing them like bugs.
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One can predict that after Mr Mosri, an engineer, Mr Ayman al-Zawahiri, a doctor, will come to rule Egypt.

O yeah, I do remember that piece: "Power to the people right now!" ...Germany's very own James (aka Hans) Last big-band orchestra, about forty years ago. I easily forget something useful or important, but my head is full of useless shit like that. Sigh.
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The orchestra long gone, but people's power is still on the horizon. You make couple of steps towards the horizon, it makes couple of steps away from you... and so on, ad infinitum. We should make a goodwill gesture and send a box of James Last old vinyls to the Egyptian revolutionists.

You're probably right about this doctor's chances.
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It's just that I'm fascinated by how richly this most humane profession is represented in most man-hating movements. Dr Mengele, Dr (Che) Guevara, Papa Doc Duvalier, Dr Armand Hammer, Dr Ayman al-Zawahiri... if psychiatrists and ophthalmologists are counted for doctors, throw in Franz Fanon and Boy Assad for good measure. Surely the list can be easily continued, but the trend is clearly seen...

A colourful detail, characteristic for the tiny "centre" of Egyptian politics - and speaking volumes of what to expect after the rightful winner moved into the presidential palace in Cairo:
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Ahmed Khairy, spokesman for the Free Egyptians Party, a secular liberal party which emerged last year, said the outcome of the first round was "the worst possible scenario", reported Egyptian newspaper al-Ahram.
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He described Mr Mursi as an "Islamic fascist" and Mr Shafiq as a "military fascist".

The Mubarak verdict seems to be just a distraction.What the Tahrir crowd wants apparently is the nomination of the Muslim Brotherhood candidate as the president of Egypt without bothering about an election.The government has played into the hands of the Islamists by not postponing the Mubarak verdict.The Arab Spring itself is a fantasy.And that the Tahrir crowd has a democratic element in it is an illusion within that fantasy.

The Army's man, Shafik, only wants to continue the 'same old same old' … keeping the Army's share of the economy (some 30%) INTACT! Yes, he'll continue along the 'liberalization' of the economy … much like Mubarak's son was doing … BUT

Egypt is a tough place … the Middle East is a tough place in general … the People have awoken to a nightmare … THEIR OWN! They are the 'lowest wrung on the totem pole' … but can't understand why? They'll be lashing out … at each other … at other countries … at Israel … there's nothing better to vent frustration than a good old war !!

Anybody care to take my bet?

We, the West, does not need to help them … it would be useless … THEY ARRESTED CIVIL SOCIETY VOLUNTEERS AND PUT THEM UP FOR RANSOM in the last year … A PLAGUE ON THEIR HOUSE! Whatever the West would do would be twisted in any event …

NO … leave Egypt to deal with Egypt … our resources don't need to be wasted on them … NO FREE $$$$ … nada!

Elections work if people have genuine choice. According to this article there is little choice, therefore elections have little hope of delivering what the people want. 'Democracy' will be the real loser of this election...
#Future of Freedom - Zakaria

That's a blatant straw man fallacy! Gee, did I mention something about Sabahi? Oh, I guess you conveniently danced around that point, or your reading comprehension is a little off.

FYI: Zawahiri and Co have detested the Ikhwan in Egypt, ever since they renounced violence nearly 40 years ago. Of course, had you bothered to read up before running your big mouth, you would have known that.

I also note you can't be bothered to cite those imaginary "statistics" you referred to, in your comment about an "imaginary centre".

Can you analyse the results in a rational manner (like noting how 60% voted against political Islam, and how the win by Sabahi in Alex and Cairo was something no one saw coming) and discuss them reasonable manner like a mature adult? Or are you just one of these irrational, easily irritable blowhard trolls that like to run their piehole with alarmist-laden rhetorical effluence and reactionary hyperbole? Who are your 'pals'?

So you're fine with the good doctor Al-Zawahiri ruling Egypt? His record of atrocities and his militant, obscurantist, extremist ideology and worldview notwithstanding?
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Well, tell me who're your pals, and I'll tell who you are.