Price Trends

The outlook for consumer goods spending remains relatively positive in the short-term—despite increasing headwinds from price inflation evident in the latest data—given signs from key economic and consumer indicators. The signs for the short term are distilled from the data storyboard…

The economic headwinds appear to be gaining strength with price inflation edging higher through early 2018 as measured by the Consumer Price Index. The brunt of the headwinds likely will be felt by the (retail) goods sector of the economy, where…

Consumer price pressures edged higher through the end of 2017 in ways that remain a threat to retail goods most of all. Price inflation rose in food and energy and remained elevated in services—in stark contrast to prices that continued to…

Although core consumer price pressures remain subdued, food and fuel price inflation represent a growing threat to consumer spending—especially among lower-income households. In the retail goods sector, the threat is from falling prices as much as rising prices. Deflation in (retail)…

Overall consumer price pressure continued to ease through the summer, but remains a real threat to consumer spending in certain categories and a re-emerging threat in food and fuel. Despite the subsiding price pressure, expect the Federal Reserve to remain intent…

Overall price pressures eased a bit in March, but the underlying numbers suggest consumer spending will increasingly be squeezed by higher prices for fuel and food—as well as by prices for services. Higher prices for fuel—up about 20% from a year…

Deeper declines in food prices at grocery stores. Rising restaurant prices. The combination found in the latest CPI numbers explain a big part of the diverging performance evident in the latest retail spending trends (found here). The spending trends show a…