Hurricane KARL

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HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN SEP 19 2004
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/09. KARL IS MOVING SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH THE APPROACH OF A LARGE AND POWERFUL MID-LATITUDE COLD LOW.
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING A TRACK AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FOLLOWED BY ACCELERATION IN FORWARD
SPEED ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE COLD LOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.
THE EYE IS WELL DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING AND IS
EMBEDDED IN A PERSISTENT COLD CDO FEATURE. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 115/102/102 KT FROM TAFB/SAB/KGWC AND THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 110 KT. THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES 15 KT
OF ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING AND THE GFDL MODEL SHOWS 10 KT UNDER
LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS FOR 10 MORE KT...BUT THE WIND SPEED COULD CERTAINLY GO
HIGHER.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/1500Z 16.4N 42.9W 110 KT
12HR VT 20/0000Z 16.8N 44.3W 115 KT
24HR VT 20/1200Z 17.7N 46.1W 120 KT
36HR VT 21/0000Z 18.9N 47.3W 120 KT
48HR VT 21/1200Z 20.6N 48.4W 120 KT
72HR VT 22/1200Z 25.4N 48.9W 115 KT
96HR VT 23/1200Z 32.5N 46.0W 105 KT
120HR VT 24/1200Z 41.0N 42.0W 90 KT
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