Saturday, February 15, 2014

ISRO denied having any race with China.. India has always denied having any kind of race with china,whether that is of arms, exports, natural resources, space or technology.

At the same time, we cannot ignore the comparitive between India and China. Lets start with basic facts:

Parameter:

India

China

Total
population

1.2 billion

1.34 billion

Area

3.3 Million Sq Km

9.7 Million Sq Km

GDP(nominal)

$1.9 Trillion

$8.25 Trillion

Per Capita
(per person per year)

$1,592

$6,094

Now comes
Military comparison

Active
Personnel

1.325 Million

2.285 Million

Military
Budget

$48.9 Billion

$114.2 Billion

Total Aircraft
Strength

1,962

2,743

Helicopters

559

100

Total
Tanks

3,555

7,950

Armoured
Fighing Vehicle

2,293

18,700

Self propelled
Guns

330

2,500

Mulitple
Launch Rocket System

System

292

2,600

Total Navy
Ships

170

972

Aircraft
Carrier

1

1

Submarine
Strength

15

63

Frigates

14

47

Destroyers

8

25

Corvette

24

0

Amphibious
Assault craft

16

228

Maximum Range
of Missile 3

3,000 tested

13,000 tested

There can still many parameters that can be compared. There are certain important points to be notes. India and China have been top importers of arms in last three years. what has changed is China has become fifth largest exporter of arms too (5 yrs ago, the export was nil).

India has always been in denial mode with regards to competition with China.

The total armed forces are around 76,000. Around 50,000 Army, 22,000 Air Force and 8,000 Navy. Considering this, it seems the effective fighting personnel is not more than 70-75 thousand. lets not consider role of navy in the current conflict.

Airforce consists of 450 combat aircrafts (which has been rendered almost useless by Coalition strikes) and 1650 Surface to air missiles. Most of the weaponry is quite old and questionable about its ability to be used in war.

The armed conflict has left air force decapitated that means around 20,000 forces are out. what remains is army of around 50,000 personnel. 2,000 tanks means atleast 5,000 forces used there. which means on ground fighting force is about 45,ooo. In this conflict Gaddafi has lost 2,000 personnel (including death, capture and defections).

Many of the tanks have been destroyed, multi rocket launchers destroyed. hundreds of armoured vehicles destroyed.

On February 26, UN security council imposed an arms embargo on Libya, travel bans and assets freeze on Gaddafi regime. UN on March 17, 2011 passed resolution for no-fly zone over libya to be implemented by France and UK. NATO started intervening militarily around end of March 2011.

Despite all this, War seems to be far from over. Gaddafi forces seem to be gaining ground. At one place rebels gain ground at another place, its the pro-Gaddafi forces gaining ground.

The moot question here is DOES GADDAFI HAVE THE RESOURCES TO ENGAGE CONFLICT FOR SO LONG?

where does this capacity come from? for this we have to look little backwards.

4) The article here quotes various deals that libya was seeking. It also clearly mentions that in the event of civil war being dragged, do not surprised that these old deals will be revived and ways found to circumvent the arms embargo.

One of the NATO commander had clearly mentioned that they would not be targeting Gaddafi directly but would target the other related areas and personnel.

Does this means that these countries want the conflict to drag on so that their own agendas are fulfilled? Considering that libya having such a small force and conflict continuing for more than 4 months now, have these embargoes already breached? Can somebody confirm that?

India had a limited conflict with Pakistan in 1999 when pakistan intruded into Indian territory at kargil. The war that India waged did cost INR 15 Crore per day (i.e. around $ 4 million Per Day). The total cost of that war was INR 3,500 crores (i.e. around $ 800 Million). during that period around 500 soldiers dead and around 1300 wounded.

Considering these facts, does Gaddafi have the capability to engage a four month war across the country? or put otherwise, from where does the Gaddafi get the resources to continue this war?

Sunday, April 24, 2011

Recently US decided to use drones for helping(?) Libyan rebels fight against Libyan leader. In another country (Pakistan), there has been huge hue and cry about the use of drones against the militancy. US already uses drones in the border region of AfPak (Afghanistan-Pakistan) against the taliban. These drones have been very successful in their operations. Almost 230 attacks have been made without about 2300 men killed in the attack in drone attacks in Afghanistan.

Use of drones has taken war to next level. The human intervention is minimised considerably by use of such automated weapons.

US has effectively minimised the human loss (their) in any ongoing wars. Irrespective of their loosening hold on the financial markets, their hold on the military is tightening and quite gripping. Any economy without a strong military support cannot remain powerful.

Use of such automated weapons, US makes sure that, their own human losses are minimised and so the opposition to military intervention by US is brought down.

The opposition to military intervention in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, etc was due to the human losses in the war. By using such weapons and tools, US will continue interfering in others affairs and at the same time, reducing their risks involved in such operations.

All these operations in various countries act as good ground for live experiments of such weapons/vehicles.

Saturday, May 29, 2010

Last week India strongly criticized Canada regarding the behavior towards not granting Visa to personnel of Indian defence establishment. The Indian rebuke was strongly worded and called for apology and appropriate rectifying measures from the canadian end.

In rare display of anger by India, this has revealed the stronger side. Such reactions are called for frequently to assert the say of Indian in international interactions.

Indian Foreign Affairs Minister S M Krishna termed the denial of visa to Indian security men as "unacceptable". Further the minister did not rule out the retaliatory action by India. Canadians were expected to address the situation immediately.

Canada, fearing a major diplomatic fall out, said it regretted its immigration official's remarks. IT further has said that its policy for entry of foreigners is under review after series of such incidents.

The Indian gain is that it is now able to assert its views and force countries change their stance. Though it does not appear to be major victory or step, but definitely a step in the right direction of being able to make itself visible and make other take notice of the voices made by us.

India will gain major achievement in asserting itself, when it is able to rough talk with behemoths like UK and China and make them notice India.

Long has been UK changing its immigration policies towards Indians and china resorting to acceptance of stapled Visas.Nevertheless, this step is in right direction...

The person on whom the money is spent.The person who borrows has nothing to lose as he is where he was earlier

Lender is punished...

Did same thing not happen with US markets? Did US government pull out biggest heist in financial history? Who lost most money in this turmoil? borrowers from those insitutions (i.e. US public who may not pay now to the lehman bros) or the ones who had faith in these institutions and lent them huge monies( Asian & other financial institutions)?

Wednesday, September 10, 2008

The day the Nuclear Suppliers Group(NSG) granted unique waiver to India to trade in Nuclear related technology & fuel irrespective of its signing of NPT & CTBT, India has made its way to nuclear group through backdoor. India can be termed as only country which is recognised as nuclear weapon state, allowed to trade in nuclear material without signing NPT & CTBT. So technically India while can have all privileges of nuclear weapon state but is not bound by any law as other states are.

There is one more implication of the NSG waiver granted to India. India now does not NEED Indo-US civilian nuclear deal. The main objective of India entering into deal with India was

Able to trade in nuclear material so that we can import uranium for our power plants and the same time divert own uranium for weapons program. ( I had discussed this earlier also)

Able to import dual use technology for our own purpose military & civilian prupose.

Our Military nuclear programme should be legitmised.

Our chances of getting Permanent membership of security council is increased.

To get that we required two things to happen

Recognition of separate programme for civilian & military nuclear programme (approval from IAEA was required for it)

Trading in nuclear related material (NSG waiver did that for us)

Now once that is done, the question is does India need Indo-US deal. The answer to that is not so simple but we can live without it also. It was possible to live without all these steps also but after these steps the need of the deal is diminished though not demolished.

We shoulod realise that post NSG waiver, we can trade in nuclear related material with any country so now we are not dependent on US for nuclear supplies. The objective of US in this deal was multipronged:

It convinced its own public that they are doing this for non-proliferation.

A counter balance to China in Asia.

Creating business & jobs in their non-existent nuclear supplies companies in US.

Russia & France are ready to enter into such deal with India at any moment. We can even use our demand potential and NSG waiver as bargaining chip while entering into deals with lesser know countries for perpetual supply of nuke material. these would include counties like poland, angola.

But there lies some risks in not operationalising 123 deal viz.

US can exert pressure on smaller countries to not trade with India.

India's entry into exclusive security council will be in-ordinately delayed.

We can expect US to exert influence on all activities with India.

If it can extract waiver from NSG, then it can possibly get it reversed also.

In this situation what is the path that India should undertake.

If India enters into deal with US, the Hyde Act can create problems for us in the later years to come. As we tie up for fuel supplies with US, they can then easily exert influence us on any policy matter as our energy would be dependent on their supplies.

India is in such a situation where it does not need 123 deal but at the same time cannot deny to enter into deal.

The course of action should be as follows:

As elections are round the corner, delay the ratification of 123 deal. Let that ratification get spilled over to next coming government.

Advance talks with other countries for similar deals (maxim - "Do not put all your eggs in one basket")

After ratification, delay making policies for private participation in nuclear sector.

Allow immediately imports of dual use technology. (irrespective of any situation , the technology once acquired cannot be taken back, we can always copy it and make claims of being indigenous)

Allow dual use tech in renewable energy resources & other high tech areas. ( we should use that to develop technology to do nuclear testing simulations, so that we do not need to test other weapon ever again).

Sunday, May 11, 2008

Everytime, there is rise in the price of the crude oil, all the media rants about the increasing consumption of Oil by developing nations like India and China and their huge apetite for the hydrocarbons. The responsibility of price rise without any justification is put squarely on these countries without providing any facts or figures supporting for it.

First of all, we need to understand that while comparing between any two entities the parameters need to be selected very carefully. It is rightly said, "Statistics are like mini-skirts, which reveal too much while covering vital things" The parameters of statistics are of utmost importance. As when defining whether a country is developed, developing, under-developed or undeveloped, the criteria used is either PPP (Purchasing Power Parity) per capita GDP or even plain vanilla PCI(Per Capita Income) in a single currency, to get an proper comparative idea, the same technique needs to be used while determining the consumption of crude oil by various states.

The basic argument used by all media is that more than 30% of the increased consumption of oil is cornered by the countries like china and India. But is that info pr0per to confer that the consumption of these countries is very high? Is increase in consumption the only parameter to judge it? Absolutely not... The absolute consumption of the oil is also important as compared to the increased consumption. Then there is a question, the total till date consumption of oil by all the countries? These developed countries have been guzzling oil at an alarming rate for past few decades. Had they not consumed at such an alarming rate, we would not have faced crisis situation today. countries like US would always like to point a finger which is not directed towards them. Who is going question them?

What is the consumption of these so called oil guzzlers? How much oil do developing countries consume as compared to other western countries and US?Now to understand better lets look at some figures:

US was consuming 20.5 million barrels of oil per day in 2006. While India was consuming 2.5 million barrels of oil and China was consuming 7.2 million barrels per day.

The US consumption is more than 8 times of India. That means 1% increase in oil consumption is equivalent to 8.5% increase in consumption of India.

India's population is more than One Crore (i.e. one Billion) while US population barely exceeds 300 million that means India has three times more population to support than US while consumption is one-eigth.

If we convert those consumption figures to per capita, then we could say that India's per capita consumption is 4% as compared to that of US.

The Per Capita consumption of energy by US is 68.81 barrels per person per year while India's consumption is 2.18 barrels per person per year. that is more than 33 times!!!!!

Have they ever gone through these figures? Do they know how much is one barrel of oil?

One barrel of oil is equivalent to around 160 litres. that means a US citizen consumes about 11,000 litres of oil and oil equivalent per day!!!??????? Consider the mind boggling figures when I say 300 million population of US means 3264,000,000 litres per day i.e. about 3.2 billion litres per day. That is 1,191,360 million litres per year !!!!!!

These figures are completely mind boggling. I personally feel that there is huge mass media mis-prpoganda being done about the oil consumption by countries like India. Completely irrelevant data (no false) is being fed to general public and then completely baseless inference is being drawn.

In this world where in a democracy, Media is considered to be fourth pillar of democracy, I feel the Indian media should vociferously try to present a correct picture to the Indians and the world. Mass Media was used as a weapon even in the days of second world war and later in the Cold War Era...

I warn all of you to not fall victims to this propoganda. Try to question the data and analyse it before drawing any conclusion from it. Even Indian leadership should take effort to present correct picture all the citizens. Complete facts should be presented and then the person should be allowed to draw the conclusion. Do not accept the conclusion drawn by others. (especially western media)

Though concerned about the Global climate change, the developed countries like US have outrightly refused to decrease the emission of GHGs (Green House Gases). They rant about developing countries food consumption has led to increase in food prices. Do they know how much they consume or how much food they waste? (that would be another post to discuss about)

Our Foreign Policy should include mass media propoganda as to increase awarness about the issues and mis-conception. They should take help of this powerful force which could help to change the opinion of the general public and allow to take the right decisions.

Wednesday, May 07, 2008

Some tout it as IRBM. some argue over that it is an ICBM in the veil of IRBM. The official stand is that Agni III tested by India on May 07, 2008 was an 3000+ km range missile with a capacity of around 1500 kg war head.

The question is what is IRBM & what is ICBM? then may be we can answer what Agni III represents. but alas there is no definite definition of even that. If you try and scourge few forums you would realise that the discussion everywhere is Agni III is an ICBM in the veil of IRBM. As the payload is of 1,500 kg, if it is reduced to 1000kg then the range of the missile would increase by almost 50% i.e. it could reach target of more than 4,500 km.

This stand could be vindicated by the Russian general's statement that the development of Agni III closely follows that of Russian SS-20 missiles & the range of Agni III can breach 5,000km.

Anyways the policy followed by Indians is quite impressive by packaging the ICBM range missile as IRBM and avoiding a controversy regarding it. This kind of diplomacy shows the coming of maturity of the Indian International Political stance.

The important factor should be there should not more delay in testing the other advanced and improved versions of this missile.

Wednesday, February 27, 2008

India on Tuesday, February 26, 2008 successfully testfired tactical submarine-to-surface Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile(SLBM) 'Sagarika' codenamed K-15. The test was conducted from a 50 metre submerged pontoon off the coast of Vishakhapatnam. The missile will be mounted on much touted India's nuclear submarine Advanced Technology Vehicle (ATV), which is in developmental stage.

India had earlier also conducted a test of this missile but was declared as partial success because of course deviation.

The test has put into select club of countries with a strategic deterrent forceat sea. The other countries who have this capability are United States (Trident-11,300 km ), Russia (Bulava-10,000km), France (M4 - 5,000km) & China (JL-1, NA, JL-2- 8,000km under development).

The India has also now completed one more leg of Nuclear Triad for minimum deterrence. India already has AgniI, Agni II, Prithvi as Surface to Surface Ballistic Missiles. Sagarika will defeintely add punch to deterrence by providing sea based launch capacity. India is also working on its surface to air missile Akash & Trishul, Air-to-Air missiles Astra, anti tank missile Nag.

Monday, February 18, 2008

The ongoing Fifth International Land & Naval Exhibition system, DEFEXPO 2008 at Pragati Maidan, New Delhi has generated lot of heat & flutter among the aspirant buyers & dealers of arms & armaments.

475 defence manufacturers, 30 countries, 32,000 square meters area, staggering launch of 91 new products ranging from radars, to communications systems, torpedoes, anti-mine vehicles and unmanned aerial vehicles is bound to turn lot of heads towards India. RIA Novostireports that with India arms spending, around $30 billion on arms spend in 2007, has acquired global dimensions. Indian private sector is vying for atleast 30% of that pie which would amount to $10 billion which is India expects, the public sector won't be able to absorb. India's spend on arms will be around 2.5% of the GDP which is huge amount considering India being 4th largest economy in the world.

A great number of collaborations & negotiations between Indian companies & foreign defence equipment manufacturers have also been anounced. some of those notably are

TATA has also tied up with European Defence and Aerospace Consortium for developing advanced tactical communications system project for Indian Army.

TATA also made a contract with US based Sikorsky Aircraft Corporation for manufacturing cabins for Sikorsky’s S-92 helicopters.

TATA also made a joint venture of the company with American aircraft major, Boeing, which is touted as the largest deal of the EXPO.

Mahindra Defence Systems (MDS), a part of the Mahindra & Mahindra Group, is in advanced negotiations for a strategic alliance with Whitehead Alenia Sistemi Subacquei (WASS). The proposed underwater defence JV with WASS will jointly address the Indian requirement for underwater defence bringing to the country's armed forces affordable world-class underwater defence systems.

European naval defence systems major DCNS Group announced that it would set up its Indian subsidiary to facilitate ongoing and future projects.

DCNS has recently signed agreements with Kirloskar Oil Engines for integrated platform management systems and with Walchandnagar Industries Ltd. propulsion system parts for the next generation ASW (anti-submarine warfare) corvettes being built for the Indian Navy.

There is still a day remaining & lot of exuberance is still being showcased. This binneial event is touted to be largest of its kind. China has remained away from the EXPO while Pakistan was invited to it.

This EXPO has created lot of exuberance in the Indian Private sector to grab a slice of the Indian Defence market. This will naturally aid to the MilBus(Military Business nexus) in India. Indian defence minister also announced that midllemen will be completely eliminated & has also trying to reduce lot of procedural hiccups while sourcing defence deals.

Indian Goverment does not place orders with the private sector company which does not have less than 26% equity owned by foreign collaborators. It is expected that this norm may be relaxed, which will definitely provide a huge boost to the industry here...

Monday, February 11, 2008

India has atlast decided to offer some resistance to China's unchequered moves.... Beijing lodged a verbal protest over the Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh's description of Arunachal as "Our land of the rising sun". External affairs minister Pranab Mukherjee asserted that "Arunachal Pradesh is an integral part" of India, and that "the PM can visit any part of the country".

This sharp reaction was infact very necessary for a quite long time. India has not been reacting sharply to chinese overtures over the Tawang. In a sense, New Delhi has only itself to blame for looking over its shoulder every time it mentioned Arunachal, fearful of allowing the sino-Indian boundary question to overshadow the narrow meeting ground between the two countries on various confidence measures.

Although China has given up its territotiral claims over sikkim, it reluctance to do the same regarding the Arunachal Pradesh shows its stubborness & ununderstanding nature. The Chinese have not yet declared their version of maps delineating the border areas. This itself shows that China is reluctant to settle the border row in amicable way. The more we try to avoid the confrontation is to allow them to make more noise regarding their stance on the issue and beware the tin which makes more noise is always visible..

India needs to make more noise about its stand as CBMS are not gonna make any headstart towards amicable settlement..

Wednesday, January 23, 2008

Pakistan began on Tuesday Jan 22, 2008, the mass assembly of a JF-17 fighter at an aircraft-manufacturing plant in the northwest of the country, national television reported.

The JF-17 Thunder, also known as the FC-1 "Chao Qi" Fierce Dragon in China, is a single-seat multirole fighter aircraft developed by China. It is based on the design of Russian MIG 33, which was rejected by Russian Airforce. Earlier the costs odf these planes was said to be $10 million but the curretn reports suggests that the costs have escalated to $20 million per piece with production of 300 planes. Earlier the serial production was to be started in Jan 2006 but got delayed due to modifications/upgradations sought by pakistan air force.

China had made a deal with Musharraf in 1998 to manufacture 150 such aircrafts in Pakistan. About 50% of the on-board equipment and avionics for the fighter will be manufactured in Pakistan at the Kamra plant, while the rest of the assembly parts are to come from China.Pakistani Air Force Chief of Air Staff, Air Chief Marshal Tanvir Mahmood Ahmed, said last year that 15 aircraft would be manufactured in 2008, and a further 20 next year, with an ultimate goal of achieving the capability to manufacture 25 to 30 aircraft per year.Pakistan has announced that it could procure 150-300 aircraft to meet the tactical and strategic needs of its Air Force and to replace the Chengdu F-7P fighters in current service.Beijing delivered two $20-mln JF-17 fighters equipped with Russian-made RD-93 engines to Pakistan in March 2007, prompting Indian protests. India claimed the deal was a violation of the end-user agreement between Russia and China.

The JF-17 is a light weight, all weather, multi-role aircraft having a capability to fly at a speed of Mach 1.6 and a high thrust to weight ratio. The aircraft has the ability to engage targets at all speeds and altitudes within the conventional flying envelope. In the surface attack and interdiction role, the aircraft can strike at long distances. The combat jet has been installed with an advanced flight control system, which is a mix of conventional and fly-by-wire controls, making it highly agile and manoeuvrable.The aircraft would be capable of carrying short-range, beyond visual range, anti-ship as well as anti-radiation missiles. Additionally, the carriage of high and low drag bombs, laser guided bombs, run away penetration bombs and cluster bombs would be catered for.

Monday, January 21, 2008

Amidst much secrecy, the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) agency has successfully launched the Israeli satellite TECSAR.The 350 kg satellite also referred to sometimes as Polaris is being launched from Sriharikota in Andhra Pradesh using the Indian workhorse rocket the Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV).

Considering the extreme geopolitical sensitivity of the launch, ISRO has made no formal announcement for this mission. This satellite is considered to be spy satellite of Israel.

TECSAR can take high resolution pictures even in clouded and foggy weather. It is most advanced satellite ever made by Israel. There are also rumours of India having entered into data sharing arrangement for the satellite launched from Indian shores.