Brad Johnson

Saves and Steals

Bullpen Review: AL East

Pitchers and catchers have reported for most organizations. Baseball is officially back! Now it's time to continue our division-by-division bullpen reviews. If for some reason you prefer a zoomed out version of this article, click over to the All Bullpen Review. Last week, we evaluated the NL East. Shall we move along to the AL East?

I welcome any and all criticism or suggestions. Think I missed somebody? Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @BaseballATeam.

This bullpen is absurd. Chapman may be the headliner, but all of Robertson, Betances, Kahnle, and Green performed like a top 10 closer last season. This unit is going to win the Yankees many games.

Chapman did have a little speed bump last season. He lost the closer role in mid-August, although he later recovered it. His fastball remained as zippy as ever, averaging 100.1 mph. However, he induced the lowest swinging strike and strikeout rates of his career. The result was a luck neutral 3.22 ERA. Not very Chapman-like. His command did deteriorate in August which led to his removal from the ninth inning. Those games – just 5.1 innings – accounted for eight of the 18 earned runs he allowed. It's possible his strikeout rates fell because opponents are less overwhelmed by triple-digit velocity. If so, a few more wipeout sliders should do the trick.

If Chapman crumples, Robertson offers a very steady alternative. The righty has thrown 60 or more innings in the last eight seasons. He typically ranges from a 2.00 to 3.50 ERA. He leans upon a cutter which he uses to induce soft contact. Once ahead in the count, he'll turn to an premium curve ball. On rare occasions, he'll try to catch hitters off guard with a slider. Robertson's cutter is more functional than elite, meaning he has to nibble around the edges with it. He can get into trouble if he's missing over the plate or struggling to throw strikes. That's what happened to him in 2016.

Speaking of potent curve balls, Betances' is on a short list for best in the game. He throws it more frequently than his fastball which might explain his unusually high 6.64 BB/9 last season. He's usually between 2.50 and 4.50 BB/9. After years as a multi-inning guy, the soon-to-be 30-year-old only threw 59.2 innings in 66 appearances. This wasn't a matter of platoons – his poor command forced him out of the game on several occasions. He was handed closer duties when Chapman faltered last season. Betances promptly suffered his own slump. Look for his command to rebound in 2018.

Kahnle has been a promising relief prospect for years. Suspect command has limited his results in the majors. He took a major step forward last season, allowing just 2.44 BB/9 while also inducing career best swinging strike and strikeout rates. His luck neutral 2.59 ERA, 13.79 K/9, and 1.12 WHIP marked him as one of the best non-closers. Two-thirds of his offerings are 98 mph fastballs which he supplements with an above average changeup and slider. In this deep bullpen, he'll soak up innings as the best middle reliever in baseball.

Green may have something to say about that “best middle reliever” quip. Last year, the righty posted a 1.83 ERA with 13.43 K/9 and 2.22 BB/9. The Yankees used him as a multi-inning guy. He tossed a nice 69 frames in 40 appearances. He'll likely reprise that role this season while making the occasional spot start. If there's cause for concern, it's with his extreme fly ball rate. That allowed him to limit hits on balls in play. His fastball was especially effective along the upper edge of the strike zone. However, if he hits a funk where he's missing a little lower in the zone, the homer brigade could come marching to Yankee Stadium. Green is an exciting talent. Before you pay out the nose for his elite ratios, remember that it's common for breakout performers to regress. Kahnle profiles as a similar pitcher and often costs less.

Adam Warren is a solid multi-inning reliever. Chasen Shreve is an effective lefty specialist who could rack up a few holds. In a normal bullpen, these are core contributors. For this Yankees squad, they're just a couple guys.

Kimbrel outdid himself last season. He recorded a 1.43 ERA (1.42 FIP, 1.50 xFIP), 16.43 K/9, 1.83 BB/9, and a tiny 0.68 WHIP. The improved walk rate was great to see from somebody whose command has always been iffy. While the overall results may look similar to his 2012 masterpiece, it's important to remember that major league hitters are a lot better against velocity than they were back then. Kimbrel continues to lean on a 98 mph heater and an elite curve ball. I know I said Betances' curve was on a short list for best in the game. Kimbrel's is the best.

Since being acquired by the Red Sox prior to the 2016 season, Smith has thrown a whopping 9.1 innings. Tommy John surgery stole most of those two seasons. Upon returning late last year, Smith showed off his signature bowling ball sinker. He also has a plus slider. While we should expect some bumps in the road, he projects to be a top setup man. The Red Sox should provide plenty of holds. If anything happens to Kimbrel, Smith is an able alternative.

Kelly tried to stick in the rotation. Unfortunately, flashes of inspiration were overshadowed by poor results. Upon committing full time to the bullpen, his fastball played up to 99 mph. He was also able to retire a bad changeup in favor of more curve balls. Although his 2.79 ERA was solid, his peripherals hint at impending regression. With 8.07 K/9, 4.19 BB/9, and a 4.07 xFIP (a predictor of future ERA), Kelly probably needs to tidy up his command. If he does, a second consecutive breakout is possible.

Another former starter turned reliever, Workman only hits 92 mph on the gun. A few years ago, that was something to comment upon, now it feels like he's a soft-tosser. He figures to fill a multi-inning role as a middle reliever. He could snag a few cheap holds and wins for those in very deep leagues. Barnes is a better source for holds. He supplements a 95 mph fastball with a curve and a slider. He recorded 10.72 K/9 last season – his best campaign to date.

Former closer Tyler Thornburg is recovering from surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome. That's always a tricky and unpredictable recovery process. He could factor into the late innings if he returns to form. Some kind of lefty reliever will be needed, possibly Robby Scott. He's a typical soft-tossing LOOGY.

Pitchers and catchers have reported for most organizations. Baseball is officially back! Now it's time to continue our division-by-division bullpen reviews. If for some reason you prefer a zoomed out version of this article, click over to the All Bullpen Review. Last week, we evaluated the NL East. Shall we move along to the AL East?

I welcome any and all criticism or suggestions. Think I missed somebody? Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @BaseballATeam.

This bullpen is absurd. Chapman may be the headliner, but all of Robertson, Betances, Kahnle, and Green performed like a top 10 closer last season. This unit is going to win the Yankees many games.

Chapman did have a little speed bump last season. He lost the closer role in mid-August, although he later recovered it. His fastball remained as zippy as ever, averaging 100.1 mph. However, he induced the lowest swinging strike and strikeout rates of his career. The result was a luck neutral 3.22 ERA. Not very Chapman-like. His command did deteriorate in August which led to his removal from the ninth inning. Those games – just 5.1 innings – accounted for eight of the 18 earned runs he allowed. It's possible his strikeout rates fell because opponents are less overwhelmed by triple-digit velocity. If so, a few more wipeout sliders should do the trick.

If Chapman crumples, Robertson offers a very steady alternative. The righty has thrown 60 or more innings in the last eight seasons. He typically ranges from a 2.00 to 3.50 ERA. He leans upon a cutter which he uses to induce soft contact. Once ahead in the count, he'll turn to an premium curve ball. On rare occasions, he'll try to catch hitters off guard with a slider. Robertson's cutter is more functional than elite, meaning he has to nibble around the edges with it. He can get into trouble if he's missing over the plate or struggling to throw strikes. That's what happened to him in 2016.

Speaking of potent curve balls, Betances' is on a short list for best in the game. He throws it more frequently than his fastball which might explain his unusually high 6.64 BB/9 last season. He's usually between 2.50 and 4.50 BB/9. After years as a multi-inning guy, the soon-to-be 30-year-old only threw 59.2 innings in 66 appearances. This wasn't a matter of platoons – his poor command forced him out of the game on several occasions. He was handed closer duties when Chapman faltered last season. Betances promptly suffered his own slump. Look for his command to rebound in 2018.

Kahnle has been a promising relief prospect for years. Suspect command has limited his results in the majors. He took a major step forward last season, allowing just 2.44 BB/9 while also inducing career best swinging strike and strikeout rates. His luck neutral 2.59 ERA, 13.79 K/9, and 1.12 WHIP marked him as one of the best non-closers. Two-thirds of his offerings are 98 mph fastballs which he supplements with an above average changeup and slider. In this deep bullpen, he'll soak up innings as the best middle reliever in baseball.

Green may have something to say about that “best middle reliever” quip. Last year, the righty posted a 1.83 ERA with 13.43 K/9 and 2.22 BB/9. The Yankees used him as a multi-inning guy. He tossed a nice 69 frames in 40 appearances. He'll likely reprise that role this season while making the occasional spot start. If there's cause for concern, it's with his extreme fly ball rate. That allowed him to limit hits on balls in play. His fastball was especially effective along the upper edge of the strike zone. However, if he hits a funk where he's missing a little lower in the zone, the homer brigade could come marching to Yankee Stadium. Green is an exciting talent. Before you pay out the nose for his elite ratios, remember that it's common for breakout performers to regress. Kahnle profiles as a similar pitcher and often costs less.

Adam Warren is a solid multi-inning reliever. Chasen Shreve is an effective lefty specialist who could rack up a few holds. In a normal bullpen, these are core contributors. For this Yankees squad, they're just a couple guys.

Kimbrel outdid himself last season. He recorded a 1.43 ERA (1.42 FIP, 1.50 xFIP), 16.43 K/9, 1.83 BB/9, and a tiny 0.68 WHIP. The improved walk rate was great to see from somebody whose command has always been iffy. While the overall results may look similar to his 2012 masterpiece, it's important to remember that major league hitters are a lot better against velocity than they were back then. Kimbrel continues to lean on a 98 mph heater and an elite curve ball. I know I said Betances' curve was on a short list for best in the game. Kimbrel's is the best.

Since being acquired by the Red Sox prior to the 2016 season, Smith has thrown a whopping 9.1 innings. Tommy John surgery stole most of those two seasons. Upon returning late last year, Smith showed off his signature bowling ball sinker. He also has a plus slider. While we should expect some bumps in the road, he projects to be a top setup man. The Red Sox should provide plenty of holds. If anything happens to Kimbrel, Smith is an able alternative.

Kelly tried to stick in the rotation. Unfortunately, flashes of inspiration were overshadowed by poor results. Upon committing full time to the bullpen, his fastball played up to 99 mph. He was also able to retire a bad changeup in favor of more curve balls. Although his 2.79 ERA was solid, his peripherals hint at impending regression. With 8.07 K/9, 4.19 BB/9, and a 4.07 xFIP (a predictor of future ERA), Kelly probably needs to tidy up his command. If he does, a second consecutive breakout is possible.

Another former starter turned reliever, Workman only hits 92 mph on the gun. A few years ago, that was something to comment upon, now it feels like he's a soft-tosser. He figures to fill a multi-inning role as a middle reliever. He could snag a few cheap holds and wins for those in very deep leagues. Barnes is a better source for holds. He supplements a 95 mph fastball with a curve and a slider. He recorded 10.72 K/9 last season – his best campaign to date.

Former closer Tyler Thornburg is recovering from surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome. That's always a tricky and unpredictable recovery process. He could factor into the late innings if he returns to form. Some kind of lefty reliever will be needed, possibly Robby Scott. He's a typical soft-tossing LOOGY.

Britton is currently sidelined with a serious Achilles injury. Both Britton and the team are touting a May return date. I'll be shocked if he's back before the All Star Game. He missed most of last season with recurring forearm strains – often a precursor of a UCL injury. Perhaps the rest will give his elbow time to heal. At its best, Britton's elite sinker is unmatched.

Brach is likely to be the first choice closer. He locked down 18 games last season while filling in for Britton. Brach is one of the most overworked relievers of the last four seasons. He's pitched 288.2 frames over the span. He's been consistent, working to around a 3.00 ERA with a 1.10 WHIP, 10.00 K/9, and 3.25 BB/9. His best pitch is a 95 mph fastball. He also has an effective changeup and slider.

O'Day and his funky delivery has been a staple of the Orioles bullpen since 2012. He reliably produces over a strikeout per inning with a good ERA and WHIP. Although he is somewhat prone to platoon splits, he's good enough against left-handed hitters to work full innings. However, Baltimore may wish to avoid using him as the closer. He's reportedly one of four pitchers who could nab some saves.

Givens is another name to watch in the Baltimore closer space. He's probably second most likely to serve as the closer. However, his previous role as a multi-inning fireman may be more valuable to the club. Givens uses his fastball nearly three-quarters of the time. His changeup and slider induce elite whiff rates even though they're merely above average offerings. I suspect the high fastball percentage helps.

On the face of it, Bleier looks similar to Britton. He's a southpaw with a big ground ball rate. The stuff isn't anywhere near on the same level. The best case scenario looks more like a left-handed Brandon Kintzler – pretty much every ball is in play. Per reports, Bleier may see the occasional save early in the season. I have my doubts.

Southpaw Donnie Hart probably has the inside track on a job. He's not fantasy relevant. Baltimore will have a number of non-roster invitees in camp to compete for the final two spots. At this point, none stand out as fantasy contributors.

Osuna just turned 23 a week ago. It feels like he's been around forever. The righty combines elite whiff rates with very few walks. In fact, he could probably benefit from walking a fewmore hitters. Living a little less predictably in the strike zone could spark a corresponding increase in strikeouts. Not that 11.67 K/9 is a problem - it's simply that he's capable of even more punch outs. Osuna blends three effective fastballs with an elite slider. He doesn't actually use the slider all that often – only 20.5 percent of the time. Later in his career, we'll be seeing him use the pitch at a 40 or 50 percent rate.

After Osuna, the Blue Jays bullpen turns ordinary. Tepera is acceptable as a setup man, but he's far from ideal. He's a hard thrower with league average results. You can find better places to hunt holds. Barnes is a poor fit for the tiny parks of the AL East. He's a fly ball pitcher with a fastball-changeup repertoire. The very best case scenario for him is something like Tyler Clippard.

Loup is a wily veteran. A ground ball and left-handed specialist, he missed most of 2016 before rebounding last season. Although I'm not excited about him, he's probably my preferred option for holds in this bullpen. Carlos Ramirez, Tim Mayza, and Matt Dermody are potential middle relievers. None appear to be fantasy relevant at this time.

The Rays bullpen depth chart is wide open. Colome is probably the only locked in pitcher on the unit, and it seems exceedingly likely that he'll be traded – either before the season or at the trade deadline. The Rays are trying to cut costs which means they probably won't dip their hand into the free agent for the more established options.

Colome is an interesting reliever. He throws a poorly performing fastball a third of the time. The other two-thirds of his offerings are cutters. Or baby sliders if you prefer. The six mph differential between his fastball and cutter indicates that the pitch isn't a true cutter (it would be faster) or slider (it would be slower). In any case, the cutter-thing is a top performer – big whiff rates and tons of weak contact. Colome can have some issues with command, although it doesn't really show up in his walk rate (career 2.90 BB/9). He'll start the year as a closer, but it's only a matter of time before he's setting up for another club.

After Colome, it gets messy. Romo was recently signed to throw his usual barrage of sliders. He could probably close in a pinch, but he hasn't reached the 60 inning plateau since 2013. Jennings will nab some holds as a decent left-handed reliever. His ratios aren't fantasy rosterable. Andrew Kittredge was fine in small sample. Just fine. Austin Pruitt and Ryne Stanek outright struggled while flashing better stuff than Kittredge.

Two guys I have my eye on are Nate Eovaldi and Jaime Schultz. Eovaldi, a former hard-throwing starter appears to be buried on that depth chart. Trades of Chris Archer and Jake Odorizzi could quickly change that perception. Eovaldi is recovering from Tommy John surgery and should be ready for Opening Day. Although he was a constant disappointment as a starter, it was only because his potential was so much greater than his results. A bump to the 'pen could be accompanied by better stuff.

As for Schultz, the former starting pitcher prospect was moved to the Triple-A bullpen. He missed most of 2017 with a groin injury. When healthy, he induced an elite 16.20 K/9 in a small sample. He has a long history of high strikeout rates and suspect command.