The race lines up in an interesting way along gender lines. Ernst leads among men 56 – 39 percent, while Braley leads among women by a smaller 50 – 44 percent margin, the independent Quinnipiac University poll finds. This survey of likely voters cannot be compared with earlier surveys of registered voters.

“The tale of independent voters tells you all you need to know about the Iowa Senate race,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University poll.

“These independents are perhaps the most important voter bloc in the electorate and State Sen. Joni Ernst is ahead 7 percentage points among them, just about her overall lead. The key to any comeback by U.S. Rep. Bruce Braley will be chipping away at her lead among independents.”

While l5 percent of Iowa voters say they might change their mind, 84 percent say their mind is made up.

According to the survey, 28 percent of respondents said their vote is a vote against President Barack Obama, while 12 percent say it is a vote mainly for Obama and 58 percent say the president is not much of a factor in their Senate vote.

The survey also shows by a 45 – 39 percent margin, Iowa likely voters have a favorable opinion of Ernst. Braley gets a 38 percent favorability rating, while 41 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa and the nation as a public service and for research.