Mississippi Senate race 2014: Guessing game over Thad Cochran run

Cochran has indicated that it will be months before he decides what he'll do. | AP Photo

If Cochran intends to leave Washington, he isn’t telling his Republican colleagues in the House. And they won’t let on whether they are laying any groundwork to run statewide, an attempt to avoid a situation in which they get in front of a sitting senior senator.

The three Mississippi House Republicans, Reps. Gregg Harper, Steven Palazzo and Alan Nunnelee, were cagey in whether they would jump at the seat if Cochran retired. Palazzo playfully whacked a reporter with a stack of papers in response, staying mute. Nunnelee said he doesn’t “deal in hypotheticals.” Harper, 57, the most senior of the three and one privately mentioned as a favorite to succeed Cochran by state sources, dodged and preached patience.

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“It would be wrong to discuss what I might do or not do if it’s not an open seat,” Harper said. “He needs to take whatever time he needs to take to make a decision. We hope that decision will be to run for reelection. And then everybody can worry about it.”

Others said to be eyeing the seat if Cochran steps down are Mississippi Secretary of State Delbert Hosemann, State Auditor Stacey Pickering, Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves and state Sen. Chris McDaniel. Hosemann, who ran a failed campaign for a House seat in 1998, told POLITICO he is seriously looking at a run if Cochran bows out and said any delay by Cochran’s indecision won’t hurt him.

“There’s a good bit of speculation that revolves around me and others down here and clearly discussions are being had, ‘What happens if Senator Cochran retires?’ We have expressed an interest if that occurs, and people are talking to us about that. And those are good things,” Hosemann said.

Mississippi Republican Party Chairman Joe Nosef said a race to succeed Cochran would garner so much attention for the candidates that they don’t need to worry about a potential time crunch. He added that he would be “shocked” if the state saw a situation mirroring that of the New Jersey Senate race, in which Newark Mayor Cory Booker launched his bid before the late Sen. Frank Lautenberg announced his retirement.

The only member of the state’s House delegation that would explicitly say he won’t run is Bennie Thompson, a 10-term congressman and the top Democrat on the Homeland Security Committee. Thompson is also a member of the Congressional Progressive Caucus — not exactly in line with the state’s conservative electorate.

Because President Barack Obama fared better in Mississippi in 2012 than some surrounding Southern states, Thompson believes a Democrat in tune with the state’s conservative politics could make things interesting if Cochran steps down.

“Properly positioned, a good Democratic message would be competitive,” Thompson said. “Whether or not we find someone to carry that message is another question.”

Democrats’ best bets may be former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove, who lost to Wicker in 2008, or state Attorney General Jim Hood. Secretary of the Navy Ray Mabus, also a former governor, has been floated in local news reports as a potential candidate. But a close senior adviser to Mabus said regardless of Cochran’s decision, he’s not interested and won’t run.

Republicans won’t rule out a serious Democratic challenge from Musgrove or Hood, particularly if a Republican nominee emerges bloodied from a wide-open primary next spring.