Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Rothwell vs. Dos Santos’

Rothwell vs. Dos Santos

The former
Ultimate Fighting Championship heavyweight titleholder will
meet Rothwell in the UFC Fight Night 86 main event on Sunday at
Zagreb Arena in Zagreb, Croatia. The two men appear headed in
opposite directions, with dos Santos on the rebound following a
knockout loss to Alistair
Overeem and Rothwell on an improbable four-fight winning streak
that included a stunning submission of Josh Barnett
at UFC on Fox 18 in January.

Heavyweights

THE MATCHUP: Rothwell has begun developing a style
that makes the most of his power and size. Shuffling forward with
his head pulled back, Rothwell hand fights his way into the pocket,
where, rather than loading up on unnecessary haymakers, he sneaks
in short shots around his opponent’s defenses. He is not the most
defensively sound fighter on the planet, but this savvy style,
combined with his superb chin and deceptive power, makes him a
serious threat on the feet.

Rothwell’s grappling has come along by leaps and bounds, as well.
His patented “gogo choke” has received much praise -- as any
technique that forces a tapout from Josh Barnett
should -- but Rothwell’s wrestling is also potent. His size and
strength help him here, too. Rothwell easily shucked off the clinch
of Alistair
Overeem, and despite the advice of Barnett’s corner, seemed to
have no fear clinching with “The Warmaster.” Those are two of the
division’s best clinch fighters.

Despite tearing his way through the heavyweight division from 2008
to 2012, dos Santos has had an extremely difficult time of late. At
32, age may be a factor, but no doubt the two brutal beatings dos
Santos endured at the hands of former heavyweight champion Cain
Velasquez and the five-round war with Stipe
Miocic have taken their toll. A knockout loss to Overeem only
adds weight to this theory. Dos Santos has been knocked down and/or
out in four of his last five fights.

Dos Santos has always been a potent offensive boxer, and his
offensive technique has only improved over time. His punch output
is more varied than ever, and his always-dangerous body punching
has been a saving grace in many of his recent fights. Defensively,
however, dos Santos has always shown holes, and those have not
closed the way fans might have hoped. Dos Santos is far too willing
to be backed into the fence, and he has neither the head movement
nor the angular movement to accommodate his low guard.

The X-factor in this fight may be the so-called “Fight IQ.” Whoever
makes the better adjustments as the fight plays out will likely
carry the day. Dos Santos is rugged and has an excellent eye for
openings, but Rothwell may actually be the more adaptive fighter,
as evidenced by the second round of his fight with Barnett.
Rothwell was soundly outboxed in the first round of that bout but
came out in the second round with more pressure and actually
managed to out-jab Barnett before wrapping up the fight-ending
choke.

THE ODDS: Dos Santos (-133), Rothwell (+113)

THE PICK: This matchup will almost certainly be
decided by cage control. Rothwell’s cage-cutting footwork is merely
serviceable, but dos Santos is notorious for backing himself into
the fence, where his speed and precision are seriously mitigated.
If Rothwell fights Dos Santos the way he did in the second round
versus Barnett or the way he fought Overeem, then he will be able
to accumulate damage and pin dos Santos to the fence. Doubtless he
will absorb some considerable punishment in the process, however,
and dos Santos’ speed and power are not to be taken lightly --
especially if he can slow down Rothwell with body shots. I expect a
good first round for dos Santos followed by a difficult second and
ultimately a TKO in round three for “Big Ben.”