The problem is, the only chance the republicans have is if they go with trump. If they ditch him and he runs as an independent then he will take 20 or 30% of their vote, meaning the have no chance of winning.

The problem is, the only chance the republicans have is if they go with trump. If they ditch him and he runs as an independent then he will take 20 or 30% of their vote, meaning the have no chance of winning.

The only chance the Republicans have is if they don't go for Trump. He's pretty much alienated 30% of the voting population (those troublesome non-white ones) and without picking up some of them, his chances are minimal.

He's a bit like Jeremy Corbyn in that respect because his first electorate are partial to his position (outside of govt elite system, keen on low tax almost certainly - low govt) but this will make him trickier to win. The nomination process makes him look more of a contender than he would be across the wider populous.

problems that could occur a) his popularity makes him a player overall - i.e. the perception he is going to win, makes it more likely he can win. b) depending on the demo nomination - left winger Bernie or woman Hilary, depending on if America hates the idea of sorts of people representing them, TRUMPO gets an edge off people who might not naturally gun republican.

The problem is, the only chance the republicans have is if they go with trump. If they ditch him and he runs as an independent then he will take 20 or 30% of their vote, meaning the have no chance of winning.

The only chance the Republicans have is if they don't go for Trump. He's pretty much alienated 30% of the voting population (those troublesome non-white ones) and without picking up some of them, his chances are minimal.

Agreed, but if they drop him he will run as an independent and take a large percentage of their votes anyway. Probably more than they would lose by having him as their candidate.

The problem is, the only chance the republicans have is if they go with trump. If they ditch him and he runs as an independent then he will take 20 or 30% of their vote, meaning the have no chance of winning.

The only chance the Republicans have is if they don't go for Trump. He's pretty much alienated 30% of the voting population (those troublesome non-white ones) and without picking up some of them, his chances are minimal.

Blacks and Hispanics, in fact, even support Trump at a higher level than whites.

This poll is on the high end with 40% of black voters and 45% of Hispanics. I've seen another that puts Trump support among black voters at 25% but that's still fucking good for a Republican.

That's how I understood it. The question is less how will he fare in the Primary, but more how will he fare in the election. It's one thing to get your party nomination, you still need to beat the other party. So nationally, how likely is it Trump will repeat those numbers?

It depends. Trump is very much an outside agent to the Republican party. The failure of Mitt Romney was supposed to start a change away from targeting only older white folks, because that was no longer sufficient to win. There were some very awkward attempts at courting minorities, but the rise of both Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio can be attributed to that.

If Trump fails to win, especially against someone as establishment as Hillary Clinton, it's quite likely that the Republicans will look at that and decide that being as toxic as possible isn't the way forward. Trump has only succeeded so far because he's an outside candidate. They are unlikely to find someone else outside the party who can sustain like Trump in four years time.

Unfortunately for them, a significant number of republican activists and grass roots supporters are naturally toxic and drawn to toxic candidates and there's not much the higher ups can do about that. The Republican Party is currently tearing itself apart, and pushing a more moderate candidate on the membership could well cause a split.

The problem is, the only chance the republicans have is if they go with trump. If they ditch him and he runs as an independent then he will take 20 or 30% of their vote, meaning the have no chance of winning.

The only chance the Republicans have is if they don't go for Trump. He's pretty much alienated 30% of the voting population (those troublesome non-white ones) and without picking up some of them, his chances are minimal.

Blacks and Hispanics, in fact, even support Trump at a higher level than whites.

This poll is on the high end with 40% of black voters and 45% of Hispanics. I've seen another that puts Trump support among black voters at 25% but that's still fucking good for a Republican.