Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network's decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- March 3, 2013):

Program

Status

Renew/ Cancel Index

Cult

0.46

90210

canceled

0.51

Emily Owens, M.D.*

canceled

0.54

Nikita (F)

0.61

Gossip Girl*

final season complete

0.61

The Carrie Diaries

0.78

Hart Of Dixie

0.86

Beauty And The Beast

0.91

Supernatural

renewed

1.41

Arrow

renewed

1.54

Vampire Diaries

renewed

1.87

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With 90210 now officially canceled, and Cult certain to be (now shipped to Friday for a burn off) the CW show race with the cancellation bear this season could be over, but the bear doesn't think so.

The CW doesn't have to cancel any more shows to premiere 3 new dramas next Fall, because they're airing scheduled repeats now at 9pm Friday which they could fill with original episodes next Fall.

The cancellation bear still thinks that the CW will cancel at least one more spring drama.

It could be for a variety of reasons, here are just a few:

What if the CW starts America's Next Top Model in the Summer (no premiere date has been set), but airs some episodes into the Fall season and fills the timeslot with repeats for the rest of the Fall? Cancel an existing drama.

What if the CW keeps Friday 9pm as a scheduled repeat? Cancel an existing drama.

What if the CW schedules an unscripted hour in season? Cancel an existing drama.

Get the picture?

There's still plenty for fans of The Carrie Diaries, Beauty & The Beastand Hart Of Dixie to worry about.

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.

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From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, I will keep the "old" Fall predictions in the table.

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show's new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It's calculated by dividing a show's new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show's own network. The network's average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

Nobody has picked up The Carrie Diaries in the UK; Beauty and the Beast received a three-season pick-up in the UK.

Skylar James

TCD will be adjusted down like always.

It needs to go, crappy show.

halloween

@Joe
all of the cw were flops with terrible ratings….HoD was renewed because it was the cheapest one…it didn’t have the highest ratings…it premiered low but remained relatively stable at low numbers. The fact it didn’t grow in 2nd season, but dropped may cause it to get the axe this time around.

HandSanitizer

@jamie
“I think Beauty and The Beast will be renewed over The Carrie Diaries, simply because it’s a power house overseas earning over $1.5 million per episode. ”

where’s the proof?

the CW should canceled BATB and TCD already. i really hate the DELUSIONAL TCD fans and BATB followers.

TCD fans – “TCD will get pity renewal like HoD got last year”. oh, did i ever mention that HoD never got 0.4 in season 1 and season 2 even once?! (the lowest HoD ever get is 0.5)

BATB fans – “BATB is the best tv series this year. BATB doing great oversee. BATB have super largest fan base (more fans than SPN and TVD ever got in the world)”. well. tell that to the ratings!

Dude

I do believe TCD will be cancelled. The CW seems to have a promising development season coming up and I think they’ll be ordering five new dramas.

Dave

Renewed:
NIKITA
Hart of Dixie

Bubble:
Carrie(I hope is renewed)
Beauty(Shipped to Friday if renewed)

Cancel:
90210
Gossip Girl
Owens MD
CULT

HandSanitizer

@Jaime
“Beauty and the Beast received a three-season pick-up in the UK.”

wow, thats a “hyper” lied you got there. keep it up (=.=”)

Dave

CW schedule:

Mondays:
The Carrie Diaries(13 ep)/ Blink(N)
Hart of Dixie

Tuesdays:
The Originals(N)
Supernatural

Wednesdays:
Arrow
The Tomorrow People(N)

Thursdays:
The Vampire Diaries
The Selection(N)/Oxygen(N)

Fridays:
NIKITA
Beauty and the Beast

LeighLee

Judging by this, it looks like BATB has a better chance at being renewed than HOD and TCD. I hope that’s the case b/c BATB is the only show I watch on the CW until ANTM comes back.

Anyanka

The fates of the bubble shows will depend on how well the pilots turn out and how aggressive the CW wants to be (read: how expensive launching new shows is compared to keeping current ones)

If they launch The Originals next fall, they may view it as especially easy and cheap to promote with The Vampire Diaries, meaning the CW could launch three new dramas in addition to The Originals. My suspicion is that the CW will air ANTM and reruns at Fridays at 9:00, freeing up more money for their new dramas.

Midseason: The Selection since it fits in anywhere; Reign only if necessary, likewise includes both supernatural and romance aspects that fit anywhere

I wouldn’t break up Arrow and Supernatural, but if they decided to, the CW should put Supernatural at Mondays at 9:00 and The Tomorrow People at Wednesdays at 9:00 (for an Amell cousins night). The drama that’s most likely to be a self-starter goes to Monday at 8:00, and that sounds like The Hundred to me.

Hart of Dixie should be bumped back to 9:00 since the lead-in from affiliates seems to be stronger than what HoD provides. Oxygen is a high school/romance drama that also happens to be sci-fi, so the romance aspect fits in somewhat with HoD while the sci-fi aspect fits in with the genre direction. HoD can also be moved to Fridays for 2014/2015 after Nikita finishes up to get it to syndication.

The Carrie Diaries is almost certainly gone. It’s only 13 episodes in and is only pulling 0.5 for the most part. Beauty and the Beast has slightly better chances, but I still think it’s gone too. CW will only renew it if they can’t afford to launch four new dramas. While BatB fits with the genre direction of the CW, its numbers and retention really are terrible.

Reruns on Tuesdays this March are a good idea for testing how well BatB might work on that night next season. I still think it will be cancelled though. I know there are financials outside of ratings, and if BatB can keep 0.6 or higher for the rest of the season it has a chance, but the likely approaching spring drop to 0.4 or lower signals cancellation. I don’t think it will go to Friday at 9:00 since it would be pulling 0.3 at best, and that’s no better than reruns that have the added benefit of promoting other shows.

LOL! I find it more than a little ironic that the only folks on this thread saying anything about TSC are those that are whining about folks saying something about TSC. Hilarious!

As for the rest of the shows… TCD is the odd man out here! The two queens of CW, i.e. Rachel Bilson and Kristen Kruek will not be canceled…

THE OLD MAN

HOD & TCD make such a cute couple, so with that in mind I’d give B&TB to the grizzly

Sorry, B&TB fans

Dan

@GreatBoy Just Desserts – Agreed

CW will renew Hart of Dixie and Nikita for syndication purposes, The Carrie Diaries will get the “Life Unexpected” pity renewal because its not doing horribly and OK for mondays and newcomers BATB and Cult will be 1 and done. People can argue with me that The Carrie Diaries can be axed along with Cult and BATB and thats a possibility but its more likely that the CW will renew it.

CW’s Likely schedule

Monday
8:00 The Carrie Diaries
9:00 Hart of Dixie

Tuesday
8:00 The Hundred or Selection
9:00 Supernatural

Wednesday
8:00 Arrow
9:00 The Hundred or Selection

Thursday
8:00 The Vampire Diaries
9:00 The Originals

Friday
8:00 Nikita
9:00 Drama Repeats or ANTM ecores

Its more likely CW pairs returning Hart of Dixie and Carrie Diaries on mondays. If TCD flops it can be done after 13 eps and then replaced. Its better for returning hits like Supernatural, Arrow and The Vampire Diaries to be aired on different nights and paired with new series and Nikita to stay on fridays with encores of new dramas.

Kevin

They should cancel Hart of Dixie, The Carrie Diaries and Beauty and the Beast.
This might be the only way to get rid of those terrible Mondays and Tuesdays – once and for all.
These days have been poisoned with series like Gossip Girl, 90210, Hellcats and so on.

If they had to renew a drama, I would say Hart of Dixie. But then move it to Fridays. This ship has sailed, take the syndication and cancel it after season 4 ends.

Dan

@Anyanka – I agree with you on Thursdays and Fridays, however its more likely The CW will try to split Arrow and Supernatural so they can pair them both with new dramas and spread the high ratings. I doubt CW would air 2 new dramas together because that almost never works.

Dan S

@ Dave, you nailed it with your proposed fall schedule. CW should hire you since that’s close to what I think they should do. Everyone thinks The Originals should be paired with TVD while I think it can pair nicely with SPN. Sending BATB to Fri is better than reruns or ANTM.

PurpleDrazi

I don’t have a dog in this fight so no comment except to Bill Gorman…you are killin’ it with the bear pictures today.

Wright

I think the CW should go for broke and cancel all the bubble shows. The new pilots sound promising. I love Nikita and HOD, but would be willing to give up the shows to save the network.

tommie

Still think both TCD and BatB will be cancelled. They could easily produce episodes of “Whose Line Is It Anyway?” or any other reality crap that would rate better than those.