An in depth, intellectual, well considered commentary and anlysis of our beloved New York Football Giants, published from our humble abode in Scarsdale, NY

Sunday, January 1, 2012

Giants: Cowboys.... Let's go already !!

Nicks announced he's ready. Manningham is listed as probable. Osi is still listed as questionable but is probably a go. Romo is probable. Jones is probable. All hands on deck.

For the Cowboys, the loss of their starting G is probably a help to the Giants. I really like to view all football games as match ups of strengths and weaknesses of opposing teams. Giants have a strong passing game and Cowboys have a weak pass defense - that match up surely favors the Giants. Conversely, Cowboys also have a strong passing game and Giants also have a weak pass defense, but at the line of scrimmage, if the Giants can assert dominance and get to the QB, they may be able to limit the Cowboys passing game. But truthfully, Giants OL has not been great this year and Cowboys have a good front 7, so the reverse is also true.

The bottom line is that this game is filled with a lot of "ifs" that won't be decided until the game is played about 8 1/2 hours from now.

If Nicks and Manningham are healthy....
If Giants DL can get a good pass rush...
If Romo's hand holds up....
If Cowboys WRs can make big plays like they did in game 1....
If Giants OL can handle Dallas DL reasonable well...
If Giants DB-field plays a little better than they did in first game....
If Giants LBs can handle Witten...
If Giants DL can hold the Cowboys running game more or less under control....
If Garret can figure out how to solve the Giants defense or if Giants defense can play a little better than game 1....

Lots of ifs... too many to really predict an outcome.

I would feel better about this game if Ballard were playing - Giants will need to get something out of their TE and something out of their running game. Cowboys last time often had 5 DBs on the field and only 6 in their front, even when the Giants had their base package including TE (Beckum in the slot, not tight). This is why Jacobs had 100+ yards. He ran well, Giants blocked well and Cowboys had a lighter personnel package in the game. Giants will need to do that again tonight if the Cowboys go 5-DBs. Also, towards the end of the game, it looked to me like the Cowboys slid their safeties to help on the Giants WRs and they also double covered Cruz in the slot. With 6 DBs watching those 3 WRs, that left Ballard 1-on-1 with a LB and he beat the coverage for two big plays in the winning TD drive. Giants have to punish the Cowboys if they leave Beckum or Pascoe covered by a LB, but I don't know if they can do that consistently. Cowboys blitzed a lot last game and got burned, therefore did not blitz much towards the end of the game. But, they may work on cleaning up the coverage in the backfield when they blitz, and I would not be surprised to see Ryan pull out all stops in pressure packages to win this game. The strategy with these defenses may not be to come up with a plan to stop the other team cold - it may be to risk and gamble to come up with a few plays or stops here or there to turn the game. These defenses have shown who they are - nobody is confusing them with the 85 Bears or the 86 Giants. But to come up with a single turnover or stop could swing a close game. Turnovers.... another "if" that could affect the outcome.

One more thing - there was one play last week in the Jets game that I am sure the Cowboys saw and will try to exploit tonight. Joe McKnight lined up as RB and because Giants showed man-to-man (easy to tell - you send someone in motion and if the DB follows him, it's probably man coverage), the Jets split McKnight out wide. He drew 1-on-1 coverage from LB Boley with no safety help over the top. McKnight is really fast, got a release easily from the line of scrimmage and within about 10 yards was easily behind Boley down the sideline. Fortunately for the Giants, Sanchez threw a terrible pass (it was both overthrown and out of bounds) to McKnight who had no chance to catch it. Felix Jones is just as fast as McKnight and if the Cowboys get that match up, it will be a big play.