My income for 2018 will be only $27k, as I held off on SS until required in 2019, when also my first RMD is required as I turn 70 1/2 in 2019.

Next year my income will increase by about $36 K in SS plus the $27K, and probably $10k in interest income, to a total of $73K, plus the first RMD, which will likely be $34k.

My AA is 50/50, with the fixed income 50 percent in the TSP. My taxable account is all equities, and taxable is 46% of total assets, the TSP is 54%.

I have calculated that if I took a distribution in 2018 of $100k, with my current low income of $27K in this year, I would pay an effective tax rate of about 16.33% (standard deduction already included in this.If instead I took a distribution of $150k, effective rate rises to 18.5%,and if I took $200k distribution it goes up to 27%

If I take no distribution this year, my tax rate on the $27K is 10.7%

If I start taking the distributions in 2019, with an RMD of $34 K and my higher income from SS, etc, I calculate my effective tax rate will be about 20%.

Question:Is it worth taking the 100k out of the TSP (a 401k plan) now, paying the tax, and having that money put to work in a taxable account for future capital gains, or better to leave it in to earn income tax deferred? We have longevity into the 90s in our family, so I may be looking at twenty years of retirement.

My inclination is to free that $100k from the retirement fund and let it earn future income on the equity side in a taxable.

Also, since I have no spouse, upon my death, the TSP and my taxable will go primarily to one family member, and perhaps it is better to have more of the funds out of the TPS and instead at my broker??

I will discuss with my CPA the tax aspects, but if my calculations are close to correct, this is my last chance to take some out at a low income bracket before my SS kicks in in 2019

instead of "taking it out" why don't you just convert it from pre-tax to Roth? If you're willing to (and have the ability to) pay the taxes on the withdrawal, it's the same if you convert it to Roth (you must pay the taxes) but you get to keep the money you would have taken out (but converted instead) growing tax free.

When you withdraw those resources eventually they're tax free because you already paid the tax when you converted from pre-tax to Roth. Or you can leave to heirs and they will withdraw tax free.

converting is better than withdrawing as long as you have the income to pay the tax. if you withdraw you could continue to invest it but it'd be in a taxable account. If you convert, it's then in a tax free account forever for you or heirs. A large conversion (or withdrawal) will count as income on your tax return, which could raise your part B premium so be aware of those implications of increasing your taxable income from current levels.

let us know if you have other questions.

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If I convert $100k from my traditional IRA to a Roth, my taxable income this year will be $27K + $100k=$127K.

Currently, my income calculated in 2016 for Medicare Part B premium 2018 (the year I joined) was less than $85K, so the premium is $134/month.

If I do this conversion, will Medicare look at this in 2020 (ie look back at 2018 income of $127k) and raise my premium (single) to $237.40, which is the schedule currently for over $107K single person?

In 2019 and 2020, if I take no more conversions, my income will revert to less than $85k. So if Medicare bumps me up in 2020, can I appeal that and show that my 2019 income was lower, or would I have to pay the higher premium for 2020, and then in 2021 they would look at my 2019 income and drop me back to the lower premium?

I don't want to do a one time conversion and have Medicare stick me in the higher bracket based upon one year of higher income due to the conversion.
I can see that it might be worthwhile to pay the extra medicare premium for that one year to get the conversion, if I could then show lower income and have the premium reduced again back to where I am now.

If a conversion you do in 2018 results in a Part B IRMAA surcharge in 2020, if your MAGI drops back under the threshold in 2019, then your Medicare premium in 2021 will revert to the basic premium. That said, these future premiums are not set until shortly before the year begins, so the basic 134 premium this year could well be 140-150 per month by 2021. But the surcharge only applies year to year based on MAGI of the second prior year.

Of course, if you bite the bullet and will incur a surcharge in 2020, keep in mind that all your future RMDs will be less because of your conversion, therefore a conversion this year resulting in a 2020 surcharge could also keep you from entering a surcharge tier in several later years. It all depends on where your MAGI lands in relation to the next higher tier, and therefore conversion planning requires some serious number crunching that must be revisited often.

The 85k MAGI threshold will be subject to inflation increases again in 2020. These have been suspended since 2011, so in 2020 the first surcharge tier may start at 87k instead of 85k, depending on inflation.

Because just $1 over a threshold results in the same surcharged premium as $1 under the next threshold, if you are going to exceed the first threshold, then you would probably convert to the top of that first tier.

If a conversion you do in 2018 results in a Part B IRMAA surcharge in 2020, if your MAGI drops back under the threshold in 2019, then your Medicare premium in 2021 will revert to the basic premium. That said, these future premiums are not set until shortly before the year begins, so the basic 134 premium this year could well be 140-150 per month by 2021. But the surcharge only applies year to year based on MAGI of the second prior year.

Of course, if you bite the bullet and will incur a surcharge in 2020, keep in mind that all your future RMDs will be less because of your conversion, therefore a conversion this year resulting in a 2020 surcharge could also keep you from entering a surcharge tier in several later years. It all depends on where your MAGI lands in relation to the next higher tier, and therefore conversion planning requires some serious number crunching that must be revisited often.

The 85k MAGI threshold will be subject to inflation increases again in 2020. These have been suspended since 2011, so in 2020 the first surcharge tier may start at 87k instead of 85k, depending on inflation.

Because just $1 over a threshold results in the same surcharged premium as $1 under the next threshold, if you are going to exceed the first threshold, then you would probably convert to the top of that first tier.

Thanks, this helps clarify. I agree if I am going to convert funds, and it puts me over the threshold, it would be wise to convert to the top of the first tier.

I am thinking of maybe converting for several years,to reduce my 401k by half, and just pay those extra Medicare fees for those years until my income drops back when I stop converting. I am thinking that with the changes in the House now, and looking down the road, that the recent tax cuts may be at risk in the future, and we may face higher rates.

So it might be wise to do conversions for the first few years of retirement and reduce the RMD on the 40lk balance, also reducing risk exposure to higher tax rates should they change.

I would be inclined to do the conversion and exceed IRRMA for one year if it meant avoiding multiple years of exceeding IRRMA after RMD's begin.

Another thing to consider would be to move some of your TSP to an IRA. For example if you moved $100,000 to an IRA then you could do qualified charitable distributions from the IRA and lower your MAGI by about $4,000/year over the first 5 years.

If you are of a mind to give to a couple charities anyway, this is a good option.

I would be inclined to do the conversion and exceed IRRMA for one year if it meant avoiding multiple years of exceeding IRRMA after RMD's begin.

Another thing to consider would be to move some of your TSP to an IRA. For example if you moved $100,000 to an IRA then you could do qualified charitable distributions from the IRA and lower your MAGI by about $4,000/year over the first 5 years.

If you are of a mind to give to a couple charities anyway, this is a good option.

For 2019, when my SS starts, with the currently calculated RMD, added to my SS and federal annuity, plus any interest income, my annual income will be about $100k,puting me in the second tier for the IRRMA.After 2018, I could do further conversion of just less than $7k before hitting the 107K threshold to the next premium tier.

Problem is, that I would really like to do further conversions after this 2018 year (my last year before I must take SS payments), but in 50-100k a year amounts for several years to lower that 401k. I could pay the taxes, but the IRRMA Medicare premiums would be at least triple what I am paying now.

I have federal GEHA now as secondary. I could drop Medicare B, and GEHA would be my primary for what Part B covers, and I would have to pay deductibles and copays. GEHA would be primary for Part A, and Medicare Part A would be secondary.

However I don't know I dropped Medicare Part B for a few years during the conversions, whether I could rejoin.

I can definitely do a $100k conversion this month for 2018 because my SS income hasn't started, but it is looking like the Medicare adjustment premiums may be trapping me into no further conversions, which does leave the 401k hostage to possible future income tax hikes. Yikes!!

Would any retired federal employee in my situation consider dropping Part B Medicare and just using GEHA as the primary?

Any thoughts on the above welcome. I can see the math starts to get complicated when considering conversion from IRA to Roth

My income for 2018 will be only $27k, as I held off on SS until required in 2019, when also my first RMD is required as I turn 70 1/2 in 2019.

FYI, You are not required to ever take SS. You can ignore (or suspend) the benefit if you want. We don't recommend ignoring money you are already entitled to receive, but I just want to let you know it is not REQUIRED to take it. (A case where someone might not take it is a divorced person who was the high earner while married, might not want their ex to get half of their monthly benefit, so they might not file.)

Next year my income will increase by about $36 K in SS plus the $27K, and probably $10k in interest income, to a total of $73K, plus the first RMD, which will likely be $34k.

1) if you will have $10K in interest next year, please check to see if you will also have it this year. If so, you may decide to convert $10K less.

2) this is saying that after you are 70.5, your MAGI will be $107K even without withdrawing or converting anything after taking the RMD. This looks like you will then be in the 24% tax bracket (or higher) and subject to the Medicare surcharges for the rest of your life. (If this is true, you might as well resign yourself to the higher surcharges, no matter what you do. Probably the best thing you can do now is convert as much as you are comfortable with, to get future RMDs lower.

I'm in a similar situation with maximal SS plus RMDs starting in 2020.
My income (AGI) without Roth conversions is higher than the OP's, so I've been doing rather modest Roth conversions most years since retiring in 2013, never more than $40k in one year.

This brings my AGI up close to what it will be in 2020 and beyond with no more Roth conversions beyond that point.
And yes, I will continue to be in a higher IRMAA tier indefinitely...

Problem is, that I would really like to do further conversions after this 2018 year (my last year before I must take SS payments), but in 50-100k a year amounts for several years to lower that 401k. I could pay the taxes, but the IRRMA Medicare premiums would be at least triple what I am paying now.

I haven't done the calcs, but something to at least consider is the scenario where you convert $200K this year and another another $150K next year. Figure out the taxes and the IRMAA surcharge (for Medicare premium and drug plan). Consider that a delayed payment on your income taxes, due in 2 and 3 years from now. Then estimate your taxes for the next 10 years after that with a smaller RMD being taxed, and assumedly no more IRMAA..

Compare that scenario to the one where you convert $100K this year and nothing else going forward (but still have to pay a IRMAA surcharge every year)..

I wouldn't be surprised if the 2 year increase in taxes and the 2 year increase in Medicare surcharges works out to be a better deal over the next 12 years or so. AND you would have converted about 1/3 of your tax-deferred to Roth, where it can forever continue to grow tax-free.

A dollar in Roth is worth more than a dollar in a taxable account. A dollar in taxable is worth more than a dollar in a tax-deferred account.

I haven't done the calcs, but something to at least consider is the scenario where you convert $200K this year and another another $150K next year. Figure out the taxes and the IRMAA surcharge (for Medicare premium and drug plan). Consider that a delayed payment on your income taxes, due in 2 and 3 years from now. Then estimate your taxes for the next 10 years after that with a smaller RMD being taxed, and assumedly no more IRMAA..

Compare that scenario to the one where you convert $100K this year and nothing else going forward (but still have to pay a IRMAA surcharge every year)..

I wouldn't be surprised if the 2 year increase in taxes and the 2 year increase in Medicare surcharges works out to be a better deal over the next 12 years or so. AND you would have converted about 1/3 of your tax-deferred to Roth, where it can forever continue to grow tax-free.

I like this suggestion. If you do run the numbers please let us know. I'm in a similar situation, albeit more complex with my wife's tax deferred account being double mine - and she is 5 years younger. A couple of unknowns are health and longevity as well as future tax rates.

Problem is, that I would really like to do further conversions after this 2018 year (my last year before I must take SS payments), but in 50-100k a year amounts for several years to lower that 401k. I could pay the taxes, but the IRRMA Medicare premiums would be at least triple what I am paying now.

I haven't done the calcs, but something to at least consider is the scenario where you convert $200K this year and another another $150K next year. Figure out the taxes and the IRMAA surcharge (for Medicare premium and drug plan). Consider that a delayed payment on your income taxes, due in 2 and 3 years from now. Then estimate your taxes for the next 10 years after that with a smaller RMD being taxed, and assumedly no more IRMAA..

Compare that scenario to the one where you convert $100K this year and nothing else going forward (but still have to pay a IRMAA surcharge every year)..

I wouldn't be surprised if the 2 year increase in taxes and the 2 year increase in Medicare surcharges works out to be a better deal over the next 12 years or so. AND you would have converted about 1/3 of your tax-deferred to Roth, where it can forever continue to grow tax-free.

I will look at this option. Just to clarify though, as I understand it, if I convert 100k this year, bringing my 2018 income to about 127k, my Medicare premium will go up by the IRRMA adjustment in 2020, as it is based upon the income generated two years prior. Then, if my income drops in 2019 or beyond, due to no more conversions, I can appeal the higher IRMAA going forward and they will reassess based upon, say, the 2019 income, for2021 and beyond.

Is this correct? I wasn't aware that if you pop up into a higher bracket once and get an IRMMA, you stay up at that level forever even if your income drops back into the basic premium level.

I wasn't aware that if you pop up into a higher bracket once and get an IRMMA, you stay up at that level forever even if your income drops back into the basic premium level.

I have never heard that, so I decided to research it. The booklet called Medicare Premiums: Rules For Higher-Income Beneficiaries explains on page 7 (of 16) of this .pdf file how the initial determination is made based on the MAGI for two year previously. The case where you have to file an appeal when you have a "life-changing event" (eg. marriage or death) is shown on the following page and appears to be for those who are entitled to immediate relief due to their MAGI changing to a lower tier. This would not apply to changing how much you convert. The "life-changing" event folks can get their relief by showing their tax return from one year prior (plus other documents).

But in your case of reducing or eliminating Roth conversions, the two year look-back will apply. Medicare looks at the new IRS data that is sent to them every year, so they will automatically lower your premium two years after you have a lower MAGI. The first Q&A on http://time.com/money/4595608/medicare- ... h-earners/ includes this explanation:

The good news is that your premiums are not fixed forever. “It’s reevaluated annually,” says Katy Votava, founder and president of Goodcare.com, which advises consumers on Medicare plan selection. Typically, if your MAGI in 2016 is below the threshold, you won’t owe a surcharge in 2018.

A dollar in Roth is worth more than a dollar in a taxable account. A dollar in taxable is worth more than a dollar in a tax-deferred account.

I wasn't aware that if you pop up into a higher bracket once and get an IRMMA, you stay up at that level forever even if your income drops back into the basic premium level.

I have never heard that, so I decided to research it. The booklet called Medicare Premiums: Rules For Higher-Income Beneficiaries explains on page 7 (of 16) of this .pdf file how the initial determination is made based on the MAGI for two year previously. The case where you have to file an appeal when you have a "life-changing event" (eg. marriage or death) is shown on the following page and appears to be for those who are entitled to immediate relief due to their MAGI changing to a lower tier. This would not apply to changing how much you convert. The "life-changing" event folks can get their relief by showing their tax return from one year prior (plus other documents).

But in your case of reducing or eliminating Roth conversions, the two year look-back will apply. Medicare looks at the new IRS data that is sent to them every year, so they will automatically lower your premium two years after you have a lower MAGI. The first Q&A on http://time.com/money/4595608/medicare- ... h-earners/ includes this explanation:

The good news is that your premiums are not fixed forever. “It’s reevaluated annually,” says Katy Votava, founder and president of Goodcare.com, which advises consumers on Medicare plan selection. Typically, if your MAGI in 2016 is below the threshold, you won’t owe a surcharge in 2018.

Celia thanks for that research. It makes sense that if your income drops again after temporarily going up during the conversion year, that the IRMMA will be adjusted back down based upon a lower income. So I see no reason now not to do the one time conversion in 2018 prior to my higher income next year.Of course I could do conversions for several years to dramatically reduce my RMD and m7 401k balance. The downside would be to pay a high IRMMA for several years.I probably won't do that but will have to crunch the numbers. If tax rates went back up, it would likely make sense to do more conversions to the Roth and just pay the higher IRMMA until income drops back when conversions stop.

Can one make Roth conversions after starting to take RMDs from a tIRA? I think my income will be lower next year.

Thanks.

I believe you can make conversions after starting to take RMDs, you will just increase your income by the amount of the conversion, so will pay income tax on it, and then it goes in your Roth. Each conversion will reduce the RMD you take the next year, but likely will increase the Medicare supplemental premiums (IRMAA -see above) as long as you have higher income due to the conversions. Once you stop doing conversions, you can drop back into a lower Medicare premium based upon your lower tax return.

Another issue here is that if you do conversions, do you have the available funds to pay the increased income tax?

I can see that one advantage of doing conversions for a few years is that we now have low personal tax rates,so tax on those conversions will probably not be lower than it is today. If a "spendy" ,tax hungry government were to come to power in the future, and raise rates, you will pay those higher rates on your RMDs,but the money converted to the Roth will be tax free earning.

Can one make Roth conversions after starting to take RMDs from a tIRA? I think my income will be lower next year.

You have to finish taking your RMD for the year (to taxable) before you start any Roth conversions.

For example, if your RMD was $5,000, you can't take out $3,000 and put it in taxable. Then the stock market drops significantly and you decide to convert $10,000 (because you can get more shares converted when their price is lower. Then you finish taking out the last $2,000 of the RMD. That would not be allowed. If that happened by mistake (eg, not paying attention), the first $2,000 that was converted would be an excess contribution to the Roth that would have to be removed.

A dollar in Roth is worth more than a dollar in a taxable account. A dollar in taxable is worth more than a dollar in a tax-deferred account.

No, this is not allowed. If it was, everyone who didn't need their RMD for living expenses would instead just convert their RMD and we'd all end up with larger Roths when we die, since RMDs don't apply to our own Roths.

A dollar in Roth is worth more than a dollar in a taxable account. A dollar in taxable is worth more than a dollar in a tax-deferred account.

There's some confusion here.
You can definitely do Roth conversions each year after you turn 70.5, but you just have to take your entire RMD for each year first.
I don't feel that Roth conversions in your 70s make financial sense for a single person, but they could be useful for a married couple and the eventual survivor...

No, this is not allowed. If it was, everyone who didn't need their RMD for living expenses would instead just convert their RMD and we'd all end up with larger Roths when we die, since RMDs don't apply to our own Roths.

-1
My first answer was wrong! Why didn't anyone catch it? I guess I was thinking the question was about converting the RMD, but it doesn't say that.

Each RMD and/or withdrawal WILL make the account value lower, which may make the end-of-year-value lower (than if you hadn't taken them out). But, even if you withdraw the RMD each year, there could be more growth in the account than the amount that was removed. So, not only will a higher year-end value make your RMD increase for the following year, so will a different divisor (that is used for calculating the RMD).

In general, your RMD will increase until the amount you withdraw is more than the rate of growth, which usually happens in one's 80s.

A dollar in Roth is worth more than a dollar in a taxable account. A dollar in taxable is worth more than a dollar in a tax-deferred account.

Each RMD and/or withdrawal WILL make the account value lower, which may make the end-of-year-value lower (than if you hadn't taken them out). But, even if you withdraw the RMD each year, there could be more growth in the account than the amount that was removed. So, not only will a higher year-end value make your RMD increase for the following year, so will a different divisor (that is used for calculating the RMD).

In general, your RMD will increase until the amount you withdraw is more than the rate of growth, which usually happens in one's 80s.

Correct. Since the IRA is all bonds (my AA is 50/50 all assets),I was just using a stable return of 3% for estimation purposes, but yes, if the interest rate ends up being 4%, the RMD will not necessarily fall from conversions due to the increase value of the overall portfolio.

If the 2018 column is your data, a 100k Roth conversion would put you into the third IRMAA bracket.
If the 2019 v1 column is your data, you might convert a lesser amount in 2018, and avoid IRMAA or stay within the first bracket.
If the 2019 v2 column is your data, the RMD reduction of $3,650 is just barely enough for you to stay out of the second bracket.

This table was done to show IRMAA and tax rates for some Roth conversions -- not your numbers, but usable to see the combined rates when you utilize the full IRMAA bracket -- demonstrates that the top of the 22% bracket produces a higher average rate within that range and that you might convert to the top of the IRMAA bracket instead. The 34.5 rate just emphasizes the similar impact at top of 24% tax bracket.

Look at the Combined Rate column and notice rates of 26.6%, 28.6%, when you convert to the top of the bracket. You may be able to figure a strategy to avoid the second bracket in some future years, but you may find that continued additional Roth conversions just results in additional tax payments. So also consider the tax rate of your heirs, and understand how qualified charitable contributions can satisfy RMD tax-free and avoid IRMAA, and that in years of high medical expense your tax rate may be lower (although that doesn't help MAGI/IRMAA).