If the gov doesn’t fit
Patrick and Menino never have been on the same page — Menino aggressively backed Tom Reilly for governor, and some sources say Patrick and the mayor rarely talk. (Patrick inner-circle member Doug Rubin is said to still be bitter from Menino’s 2001 campaign against Peggy Davis-Mullin, for whom Rubin worked.)

Could Patrick, behind the scenes, orchestrate or play an assisting role in a challenge to Menino? The reward — a grateful ally running Boston — would be great, but the risks are high. A failed attempt would leave a furious mayor, and the image of a meddling governor.

At a recent political event, Boston mayor Thomas M. Menino asked Robert Crane, the former longtime state treasurer, how many years he had held that office. When Crane said 26, Menino gave a thoughtful look, nodded, and said, “That sounds like the right amount.”

A witness to the exchange relates it to make a point about the futility of predicting Menino’s successor: the mayor is so entrenched in his current post that, if he wants to run again, and again, and again, speculation about who will follow him becomes that much harder. For all we know, Boston’s first post-Menino mayor might still be in college.

Menino has been mayor since 1993, and the fact is that almost everyone in the city expects that he will run for — and win — an unprecedented fifth term in office in November 2009, surpassing Kevin White as the longest-serving leader in Boston city history.

Although they won’t say it on the record, for fear of Menino’s legendary vindictiveness, many city political insiders believe it’s time for regime change at City Hall. Menino, some say, was a great mayor for the 1990s, but fresh blood is needed to guide the city into the 21st century.

“Tom Menino has taken the city as far as he can go,” says one Democratic operative. “He’s Curt Schilling in the eighth inning.”

And yet, that same observer doesn’t see potential replacements who inspire confidence — everyone knows you don’t change pitchers when the bullpen looks shaky. Surveying the local political talent, this person concludes, “I’m not seeing any Jonathan Papelbons.”

Perhaps. But, as one elected official points out, sometimes the insiders don’t recognize a political star until after it rises. “It could be another version of Deval Patrick, or what Sam Yoon did in 2005,” says that veteran Boston pol. “They announce, and get snickers, but then light a fire and run with it.”

Vanquishing his enemies
Menino turns 65 on December 27 and, if re-elected in 2009, would be 71 by the end of another four-year term. Only three mayors of the 50 biggest US cities are older than that. Menino also has Crohn’s disease.

Then again, 70 might be the new 50 in Massachusetts politics. Sal DiMasi, 62, recently expressed his intention to be Speaker of the House for “a long, long, long, long, long, long time,” as reported by State House News Service. If Sal can reign into his 70s, why not Tommy?

Cash carousel Even though the dollar has taken an international whupping of late, there remains at least one place where the love of the greenback remains strong: Beacon Hill.

Yoon or Flaherty Boston voters will go to the polls in less than seven weeks to choose two candidates, out of the four now running, to face off against each other in November's mayoral election.

Council contortions For more than a generation, being president of the Boston City Council was a springboard to the mayor’s office.

No side bets Opponents of legalized gaming in Massachusetts are celebrating the death this past week of Governor Deval Patrick’s bill to license casinos, which was crushed by a seemingly decisive margin of more than two-to-one.

The rumor mill The energy in this year’s at-large race for Boston City Council is not to be found on the campaign trail.

That dirty water Much of the heart and soul of historic Boston is in danger of sinking into the marshy ooze on which it was built over the centuries.

Seven for seven While coverage of the Red Sox is always excessive (except for the sweet deals they get from the politicians, but whatever), the arrival of Daisuke Matsuzaka will make things even worse than usual.

Madam Mayor Maureen? This past week, with Bostonians’ attention focused on the presidential-primary drama north of the Massachusetts border, an opening salvo in the 2009 mayoral race may have been delivered.

Campaign Trail of Tears Mayoral candidates Michael Flaherty and Sam Yoon have looked a little like ambulance chasers of late, seizing on two recent tragedies for political gain.

The pain hits home With unsuccessful wars running in Afghanistan and Iraq, and the worst economic crisis in almost 80 years likely to get worse long before it gets better, Barack Obama will face challenges of historic proportions when he becomes the nation's 44th president next week.

MRS. WARREN GOES TO WASHINGTON | March 21, 2013 Elizabeth Warren was the only senator on the Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions (HELP) Committee, aside from the chair and ranking minority, to show up at last Thursday's hearing on indexing the minimum wage to inflation.

MARCH MADNESS | March 12, 2013 It's no surprise that the coming weekend's Saint Patrick's Day celebrations have become politically charged, given the extraordinary convergence of electoral events visiting South Boston.

LABOR'S LOVE LOST | March 08, 2013 Steve Lynch is winning back much of the union support that left him in 2009.

AFTER MARKEY, GET SET, GO | February 20, 2013 It's a matter of political decorum: when an officeholder is running for higher office, you wait until the election has been won before publicly coveting the resulting vacancy.