Only a few months ago Nicaragua was a spectator to the turmoil in Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador that has led to a massive exodus of families seeking refuge by traveling north. Sadly because of the current tumult in Nicaragua, a new refugee crisis could be on the way. To prevent further escalation and increase the chances of achieving a just peace, the opposition and the Catholic Church should loudly and strategically embrace nonviolent discipline.

As anti-government protests in Nicaragua surpassed the 100-day mark, nearly 400 people, mostly youth protesters, have been killed—more than double the number of deaths that have occurred in the many years of the meltdown in Venezuela. Efforts to defuse the violence, including a national dialogue between the Daniel Ortega government and the opposition mediated by the Catholic Church, have failed. Students wielding mortars and Molotov cocktails continue to battle the police and pro-Sandinista paramilitary groups, who are responsible for most of the deaths.

While it is typical for authoritarian regimes to blame domestic dissent on foreigners, hooligans, and terrorists, opposition groups have a big say in whether or not those narratives gain traction. Studies have found that mixing violent and nonviolent tactics tends to decrease overall levels of participation in the resistance while increasing overall levels of violence. Opposition violence provides regimes with excuses and minimizes the number of people willing to defect to the opposition.

The most important determinant of the success of resistance campaigns is the size and diversity of participation.

This is problematic because the most important determinant of the success of resistance campaigns is the size and diversity of participation. In places like Colombia and the Philippines, communities have used collective nonviolent action to challenge non-state armed actors and protect civilians. In Nicaragua, nonviolent mass action combined with skillful dialogue and negotiations supported by the Church and regional actors could help break the deadly impasse.

Protests that began in April following Ortega’s announcement of cuts to social security quickly spiraled into an anti-authoritarian uprising. The government’s illiberal tactics since have alienated large sectors of the country. Ortega, who lead the Sandinista revolution that overthrew the right-wing Somoza dictatorship in 1979, has ironically adopted measures favored by that regime.

The shoot-to-kill response to the protesters by police and pro-Sandinista paramilitaries escalated the crisis. Pressure forced Ortega to rescind the pension reforms, but he rejected opposition calls for early presidential elections and insisted “coup plotters” were responsible for the violence.

With talks suspended, students erected barricades outside university campuses, which have become hotbeds of resistance. Masked youth faced down heavily armed security forces and militias with homemade mortars and other improvised explosives. Government forces destroyed the barricades, arrested and disappeared dozens of students according to human rights organizations. Ortega said “right-wing terrorists” were responsible for the violence and accused Catholic churches of sheltering insurgents.

Absent international pressure, the Ortega regime is unlikely to negotiate in good faith, much less agree to early presidential elections. Outside allies of the opposition should help spread knowledge and skills related to strategic nonviolent resistance, which has historically been twice as effective as armed struggle.

While the Catholic Church’s role in Central America is not without controversy, it could serve as a bridge between the protesters and the regime. Ortega himself identifies as Catholic. Catholic officials have renounced violence and condemned the killings by pro-government forces and clergy and nuns have been actively involved in opposition protests.

Church leaders could reinforce nonviolent discipline within the opposition, in the same way that the Catholic leaders in the Philippines supported nonviolence in the 1980s. The Church could join forces with Protestant groups to encourage dialogue, diffuse violence at the community level and help broaden the coalition committed to a nonviolent resolution.

Regional governments and the Organization of American States should step up their support for a nonviolent resolution. They should apply diplomatic pressure on the Ortega regime and insist that those responsible for violations be held accountable—holding the opposition to the same standards.

In early July, the U.S. government invoked the Global Magnitsky Act to target three Nicaraguan officials for corruption and human rights abuses. A recent U.S. rebuke of Ortega’s actions, implementation of sanctions, and pulling back military aid alone will not convince the Ortega government to change its course. Other governments in the Western Hemisphere must also voice their condemnation about the atrocities taking place in Nicaragua.

To succeed, persistent domestic and international pressure needs to be mobilized, which can hopefully shift the opposition’s response to a peace-seeking dialogue backed by inclusive, disciplined nonviolent action. This could validate a variety of options that could possibly lead to power sharing or perhaps even early elections. What the opposition does next could increase the chances of such a breakthrough.

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