Posts tagged ‘Doug Fister’

Doug and I will be sharing a handful of samples over the next couple of weeks to give you an idea of what you can expect in the 2014 SP Guide. We have selected a diverse group across both leagues for the samples ranging from established aces to promising on-the-rise arms. Next up is budding star Doug Fister, joining the National League for the first time in his career after an off-season trade from Detroit. The mechanics report card denotes the split between mine and Doug’s writing. Everything above the card was written by me, the card and text are Doug’s. If you have questions, comments, or funny jokes you can either comment here or reach us on Twitter @sporer and @doug_thorburn. Details on how to order the guide are included at the end of the piece.

Doug Fister (30 years old) – Fister was already someone climbing up my draft board as the Tigers completely revamped their infield defense which stood to benefit him greatly. Instead, he gets traded to the NL where he will face pitchers and play behind a solid infield defense with his elite groundball rate.

The 2013 Tigers had baseball’s third-worst team runs saved on the infield at -34 with only the shortstops turning in a positive score, thanks no doubt in large part to the trade acquisition of Jose Iglesias. The Nats weren’t exactly four Orecks out there, but their -6 is a vast improvement and right around the middle of the pack at 17th. In 2012, they delivered an 8, good for 11th, while the Tigers had a -19 that left them fifth-worst.

Fister was hurt more by the 2013 iteration, posting a career-high .332 BABIP en route to a 9.9 H/9 and 1.31 WHIP. His .287 BABIP on groundballs was well above the .240 league average and accounted for 17 extra hits on his ledger. He entered 2013 with a .215 BABIP on groundballs, so 2013 definitely stood out like a sore thumb and a lot of it can be attributed to the shoddy defense surrounding him.

His strikeout rate was a useful 18.1 percent, just off the 18.9 percent league average, but when paired with the 54.3 percent groundball rate it becomes more than palatable. Facing pitchers alone should push him back above average. Hell, he had a 20.4 percent rate in 2011 without the benefit of flailing starting pitchers so we could realistically see him push into the low-20s in his new environs. The biggest gains are to be had with that WHIP.

A 1.31 was not fitting of his skillset, nor was the 3.67 ERA to be honest, but the former was far more egregious. If you put him at league average on that groundball BABIP and remove those 17 hits, his WHIP drops to 1.23. Get really frisky and put him at his .215 career groundball BABIP that he brought into 2013 and you’re slicing 26 hits off and all of a sudden he has a 1.18 WHIP. With 1.06 and 1.19 marks in 2011 and 2012, the upside is evident.

I think Fister is due for a huge season and it’s going to make the returns that Detroit got back look even worse than they did at the consummation of the trade. In a lot of drafts, he’s falling outside of the top 40 starters, offering tremendous value. Buy in bulk!

Fister made tremendous improvements to his balance last season, skyrocketing from a 40 grade in the 2013 SP Guide. He maintained a stronger vertical position and completely corrected the pronounced back-side lean during his stride phase, which had positive ripple effects on his posture by minimizing his glove-side tilt. The tall right-hander sets up on the third-base side of the rubber before initiating an extremely closed stride that directs his motion toward the on-deck circle.

Fister is throwing from an extreme angle when he reaches release point, such that he has to throw across his body in order to hit targets behind the strike zone, especially when his catcher sets up on the inner-half to left-handed hitters. Some pitchers have a naturally-closed stride, but the fact that Fister’s drag foot finishes miles away from the centerline indicates that he is going against signature.

It will be interesting to see if the Nationals address the issue, given that they made similar adjustments with Gio Gonzalez when he came aboard, with excellent results. But Fister arrives in Washington with a far superior walk rate, and the Nats may decide that if it ain’t broke, they won’t fix it.

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Trying out this new idea where each week I’ll take you through the most intriguing pitching matchups for the upcoming seven days. I’ll pick the ultimate matchup (think Strasburg v. Harvey of last Friday) as well as an undercard matchup pitting two pitchers you might not otherwise instantly be drawn to if you were perusing the slate. If you can’t watch every night, these would be the two I’d go for above all. I haven’t decided exactly how I’ll review the picks each week, but I have seven days to figure that out.

(Obviously any and all of these are subject to change so bear with me if they don’t pan out as I’m using probable starters.)

MONDAY

CC Sabathia (NYY) v. Matt Moore (TB) – A battle of southpaw pitting the veteran star against the up and coming young gun. This is far and away the best of Monday especially since DanHaren’s early season struggles have rendered his outing against Shelby Miller a bit more one-sided in the youngster Miller’s favor. That said, I’ll still be checking it out.

TUESDAY

Wade Davis (KC) v. Max Scherzer (DET) – Scherzer has picked up right where 2012 left off with a silly 40 percent strikeout rate while Davis has transitioned back into the rotation quite nicely so far possibly making some re-think their position on the Wil Myers trade. It’s still way early, but the Royals have to be happy with the returns so far.

Adam Wainwright (StL) v. Ross Detwiler (WAS) – Wainwright hasn’t walked a single batter in his 29 innings of work while also fanning a career-best 25 percent of the batters he is facing. Detwiler succeeds on a pitch-to-contact/groundball approach. He took some major steps forward last year and the improvement is sticking so far in 2013.

WEDNESDAY

Jeff Samardzija (CHC) v. Mat Latos (CIN) – A couple of young guns tangle in a day game at the Great American Ballpark and hopefully they can shut down the opposing lineups in a park known for offense. Latos is looking to keep his hot start going despite a career riddled with April struggles.

Ian Kennedy (ARI) v. Madison Bumgarner (SF) – Kennedy has been up and down so far this year, but he escaped with a baseline quality start in Coors Field which hopefully gets him back on track. Bumgarner, meanwhile, is one the most exciting young arms in baseball.

Andy Pettitte (NYY) v. Alex Cobb (TB) – The finale of this series gives us another matchup of old v. new with both pitchers toting sparkling ERAs south of 2.60 including Pettitte at just 2.01 through 22.3 innings.

THURSDAY

James Shields (KC) v. Anibal Sanchez (DET) – Sanchez is a bit overlooked in that deep Detroit rotation, but he has arguably been the team’s best pitcher since late last August. That’s not an easy feat when you’re teammates with JustinVerlander and Scherzer. Early on, Shields hasn’t missed the friendly home ballpark or sparkling team defense he left behind in Tampa Bay as he aptly fulfills the ace role KC sorely needed.

Jeremy Hellickson (TB) v. Jake Peavy (CWS) – The list is Tampa-heavy, but of course pitching is their strength and they are facing several strong starters this week, too.

FRIDAY

Homer Bailey (CIN) v. Jordan Zimmermann (WAS) – Two of my favorites going toe-to-toe in DC as NL superpowers play what should be an exciting early season series. Both pitchers look great early on, too.

SATURDAY

Kris Medlen (ATL) v. Doug Fister (DET) – If the defenses are on point, this groundball fest could be a breezy two and a half hour matchup, hopefully with my beloved Tigers faring better than they did when they were on FOX this past Saturday.

SUNDAY

Mike Minor (ATL) v. Max Scherzer (DET) – I didn’t just pick a bunch of Tigers games because they are my favorite team. I actually believe these should be some great matchups. Oddly enough, Verlander wasn’t included in any of them. This is the Sunday night game on ESPN.

Kyle Lohse (MIL) v. Clayton Kershaw (LAD) – There is a major disparity in how these two succeed, but Lohse has maintained success even after skipping all of Spring Training as a free agent. Kershaw, of course, is simply awesome.

Did you read my mind & pick up Aaron Harang for a spot start today? No? Wow, that was dumb of you. He was the only guy I really liked today, but didn’t have time to post my picks as I was busy with the day job. As of this writing, he has thrown five scoreless at home against the Giants. Of course, halfway through the season, hopefully you would be able identify an under-owned Harang against a weak offense in the best pitcher’s park in the world as a viable spot start option.

For those still wanting the assistance, I am here to help so let’s take a look at some picks for the weekend (I’m one of those who lumps Friday in with the weekend, it should be a day off anyway). But first, we will look back on the bloodbath that was week 14.

Not even the good fortune of picking Harang & Rubby de la Rosa who had dueling no-hitters through five innings and each went on to throw six shutout innings apiece could erase the carnage of Carlos Carrasco’s two starts along with the implosions of Edinson Volquez and Bartolo Colon. By the way, Colon pitched in Toronto tonight and was dominated for eight runs in two-thirds of an inning. Mercifully for his fantasy team managers, only three runs were earned, but the eight runners allowed is going to sting.

FRIDAY:

Justin Verlander (*checks ownership rates*… What??? How is he on 105% of teams?? Nevermind.)

Vance Worley (PHI @ NYM) – This kid has been great in his second go-round with an 0.72 ERA in four starts since coming back up on June 18th. You would like to see his 6.5 K/9 tick up a bit, but it is passable. Meanwhile his 3.6 BB/9 is inflated by one outing where he walked four in six innings. He has walked two in each of the other three outings.

Doug Fister (SEA v. TEX) – The Mariners hate him for some reason so there is virtually no chance that he logs a win, even if he goes nine and allows two runs, but the chances of a quality outing at home are very strong.

SATURDAY:

Cory Luebke (SD v. SF) – This kid’s ownership rates should be skyrocketing after each of his starts, but he might get the Tim Stauffer treatment whereby he has to prove himself for three months before he will finally be trusted. Hopefully that is the case, that will leave us spot starting fans a gem to use every fifth day. Luebke’s numbers aren’t just built off of his 39 relief innings. He has a 1.06 ERA and 0.65 WHIP in 21 innings along with 11.1 K/9 and 7.0 K/BB rates. He is an auto-start right now, especially at home.

Rich Harden (OAK v. LAA) – One good start at home, one rough start in Texas. The latter was an easy layoff, but I am comfortable trotting him back out there for this home start against the Angels. The Angels don’t have an overwhelming lineup and that home ballpark always helps.

Jonathon Niese (NYM v. PHI) – One of the unnoticed bright spots for the Mets has been Niese who has allowed more than three runs just once in his last 10 starts. During that stretch he has a 2.73 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 8.6 K/9 rate. His 3.8 K/BB rate is quite impressive, too. The 24-year old just continues to improve and I am surprised to see that he is on just 13% of ESPN leagues right now.

SUNDAY:

Ted Lilly (LAD @ ARI) – I think he is going to have a big second half. His skills have produced an xFIP nearly a full run lower (3.99) than his 4.79 ERA through 107 innings. He doesn’t walk anyone (1.9 BB/9) and his 6.6 K/9 is pretty good, though a full strikeout under his rate from the last two years. He has always been a huge flyball pitcher so that isn’t a major concern and I expect him to regress back toward his mean over the remainder of the season. He could also find himself dealt by July 31st and his destination would play a role in his value of course, but for now I’m buying.

Homer Bailey (CIN @ STL) – Most head-to-head leagues aren’t just going with a four day week. However, if yours is and you are protecting an ERA and/or WHIP lead, I would pass on Bailey, but if you have all next week to go still he is a solid gamble especially for some strikeouts. He, too, could be instrumental down the stretch as his big second half in 2010 (3.55 ERA, 9.2 K/9 in 58 IP) earned him sleeper value coming into this season.

Here are this week’s MLB Sunday Twidbits which is something I’ll be doing every Sunday throughout the baseball season. It’s an exercise whereby I tour the league giving a statistical tidbit per team on Twitter feed (@sporer). Sometimes a team or two will get more than one if I have more than one nugget I really want to share, but every team will be represented at least once. Check the sidebar on the right for previous editions of Twidbits.

Ari – David Hernandez was crushed for 5 ER w/out recording an out on 6/7. Since: 8.7 scoreless IP w/9 K, 1 H, 3 BB. Nice MR option w/10 K/9. (Ed. note: The Tigers bombed him shortly after I wrote this up. He is prone to the occasional implosion, but the numbers from implosion-to-implosion are really good at least.)

CWS – At some point, Ozzie Guillen has to be held accountable for playing Adam Dunn v. LHP. He’s now 1-52 (.019) w/24 Ks. Let Lillibridge DH. (Ed. note: Or as reader Paul Bourdett suggested, call up Dayan Viciedo and let him take the hacks at DH against southpaws. He is killing it in AAA.)

CWS2 – Dunn (cont.) Yes, it’s a small sample overall, but as much as Dunn is struggling, he needs some time off v. southpaws.

Bos – Andrew Miller isn’t an insta-pickup just bc he’s on Boston. He put on 10 baserunners against SD in 5.7 IP. The 6 Ks were nice, but…

John Danks (CHW v. WAS) – In three June starts, he’s 3-0 with a 1.23 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 7 K/9. Take out the butt-kicking he suffered in Toronto at the end of May and he has a 3.31 ERA since April 30th. He’s coming back around and this is a guy who should be owned across all formats.

Justin Masteron (CLE @ SF) – Masterson’s Achilles heel is lefties and SF only has three: Brandon Crawford, Aubrey Huff & Nate Schierholtz. Crawford is an all-leather rookie in there for his defensive chops at short while neither Huff nor Schierholtz has been able to post an OPS better than .700 this year.

Jason Vargas (SEA “at” FLO) – Florida is only the home team in that they will bat last, but the game is in Safeco where Vargas has allowed a .650 for his career and .631 on the year.

SUNDAY:

Doug Fister (SEA “at” FLO) – Taking full advantage of the U2 concert that forced this series to Seattle, I’ll go with another Mariners pitcher who takes advantage of his home park. Fister allows a .68 OPS at home and just a .590 OPS against right-handers. The Marlins have just one regular lefty in their lineup (Logan Morrison) and the only other one who could start is the non-threatening Dewayne Wise.