Saturday, November 21, 2015

After some six years and over 2,5 million views, Congo Siasa will be moving to the website of the Congo Research Group, a new research project housed at the Center on International Cooperation, New York University. You can now find me here, along with other reporting, writing, and podcasting on the Congo.

So all that is left to say is thank you to Cheri Samba for not suing me, and matondi mingi and aksanti sana to all the readers who have visited. I might be back here at some point, but for now, adiós.

Saturday, November 7, 2015

On Monday this week, President Joseph Kabila met with the heads of state institutions––army, parliament, senior judges and prosecutors. The following day, Deputy Prime Minister Evariste Boshab announced that a political dialogue would be held shortly. Ruling party members filled in the details: the UDPS, a powerful opposition party led by Etienne Tshisekedi, would participate; it begin be held around November 15 in the town of Muanda (west of Kinshasa); and the meeting would be presided by UN Special Envoy Said Djinnit.

The news sent a shock wave though the Congolese blogosphere. The Dynamique de l'opposition, the main group of opposition parties (UNC, Ecidé, MLC, Fonus, l'Envol, ATD and others), which is currently holding a large meeting in Kinshasa, criticized the announcement, saying it would only serve to further delay elections.

Some Congolese pundits were outraged that the UDPS, whom many consider the flag bearer of the opposition, would be party to this kind of initiative. Meanwhile, a Congolese newspaper (C-News) reported that a UDPS delegation had arrived last weekend in Kinshasa for the dialogue, which some fear could lead to the co-option of the party into a government of national unity. The Catholic church, adding to the confusion, congratulated the president on the announcement in a tone that was much less defiant than that of Archbishop Monsengwo after his June meeting with Kabila on the same subject.

But hype in Kinshasa has reached a fever pitch––the Dynamique is beginning to call for civil disobedience and and popular protest. It then likened the self-immolation of a taxi driver in Lubumbashi (he was protesting police harassment) to the Senegalese protest that helped bring President Abdoulaye Wade to his knees.

What is really happening?

I contacted Felix Tshisekedi, the son of Etienne and in charge of UDPS diplomacy, by phone. He said that the UDPS has not accepted any invitation to a dialogue, that they were still open to one, but that it would have to be under international mediation. He castigated Congolese journalists for reporting otherwise. He says that Bona Kalonda, the nephew of the UDPS president, did travel to Kinshasa as reported, but on personal business. Papis Tshimpangila, the legal counsel of the party, also traveled to Kin, but on his own private business.

So what about international mediation? Senior UN officials say they know nothing about Djinnit playing this role, although he has been in touch with members of the political elite as part of his job. Indeed, it would a surprising turn of events, since in the past the Congolese government has been hostile toward any UN involvement in mediation––when Martin Kobler, the former head of the UN mission there, tried something similar last year he was reprimanded by Kabila.

So will there be a dialogue? Possibly. Congolese politicians are inveterate dialogue-ers. The seem to be on a perpetual world tour of negotiations, trekking from Venice to Ibiza this year for the "pre-dialogue", Rome for FDLR talks in 2014, to Addis Ababa for the PSCF and Kinshasa for the concertations nationales in 2013, Kampala for months of M23 negotiations in 2012––and who can forget the per diems and expense accounts set up for the Goma Peace Conference of 2008, or the year spent amid the slot machines and fake waterfalls of Sun City casinos in 2002?

And frankly, if there is no dialogue, what is the alternative other than, as the Dynamique puts it, "a large resistance front to definitively block the path to this abuse of power"––in other words, blood in the streets of Kinshasa? So we are stuck between a dialogue that could allow Kabila to co-opt the opposition and delay elections, and protests that could easily turn violent.

The internet convulsed briefly over comments made by President Joseph Kabila's coalition spokesperson and published by Reuters on Saturday. At a press conference called in Lubumbashi by the provincial commissioner for the new province of Lualaba––apparently an occasion to rally the troops behind the president––André Alain Atundu said:

We need to say the truth to the Congolese people that, in the current conditions, we are not able to organise the elections. So, the people must grant us two to four years.

Was this the first official confirmation that Kabila intends to stay on past his legal term, which ends in December 2016? Some people certainly felt so––I began getting text messages and Twitter alerts within minutes, one friend suggesting that, "We finally know what we had always suspected. Glissement." Kenneth Roth, the executive director of Human Rights Watch, said:

Congo Pres Kabila stalled in preparing for elections. Now his party urges delay. Glissement.

Meanwhile, Moise Katumbi, the former governor of Katanga and presumed presidential candidate, reacted with a press statement:

The ruling coalition's call to delay national
elections is troubling but unfortunately not surprising. The people of the
Democratic Republic of Congo have spoken through their Constitution that they
do not want a president for life - and that they want presidents to be limited
to no more than two five-year terms.

(Katumbi's reaction reveals a well-oiled media machine, but also a sense of drama––he made the statement as his soccer team, TP Mazembe, won the first leg of the African Champion's League against USM Alger.)

Strangely enough, however, none of the major Congolese newspapers in Kinshasa picked up the story, nor did Radio Okapi in its Monday broadcast. And, according to journalists in the capital, the Congolese government has been quick to walk back Atundu's statement, saying that it does not represent official policy.

It is possible that Atundu got ahead of himself. But it is not the first time that he has suggested that the government needs to delay the elections by several years. At a televised debate with opposition leader Franck Diongo just two days earlier, he said the same thing. Watch the first ten minutes and you will get a feel for the logic: we don't have money because the international community has not provided it (although, according to their own budget, they want to finance 90 per cent from domestic revenues); the election commission has resigned, and we need time to replace him (although the electoral calendar was seriously delayed even before that); and we need to register new voters and clean up the voting register, which can take two to four years.

At some point, the government will have to make the delay of elections official. But for now, it seems to be betting that silence is the best weapon: it barely said anything when provincial elections, scheduled for a week ago, did not take place, and Kabila has been adamantly opposed to making any statements about the elections except in the most general terms. And we are soon going to be beyond the point of no return, when it will be impossible to hold credible presidential elections by the end of next year.