The early game on Sunday is also probably the unlikeliest if you had asked anyone before the start of the season as it features the Bills breaking a seventeen season streak of not making the playoffs travelling to Jacksonville to face a Jaguars team who themselves haven’t played a playoff game in ten years.

The Jaguars stuck with interim head coach Doug Marrone having fired Gus Bradley during last season and brought Tom Coughlin back to help in the front office. The change has worked with a couple of further additions to an already talented defence creating a unit that led the league by DVOA and that has carried the team through the season. The only problem has been that the offence has been so focussed on running the ball and limiting quarterback Blake Bortles that this is not a team built to come from behind. With the league’s best passing defence this has not been a problem during the regular season but could be an issue in the playoff as the level of competition increases and they face some of the best offences in the league.

The Bills come into this game after the high of breaking a streak of missing the playoff but I’m not sure anyone would have predicted that happening during an offseason where the new regime overhauled the roster, trading away known names as they started again. This continued into the season and it was clear that a long term project was under way and that the team wanted a particular type of player on the roster. The main talk surrounding first year head coach Sean McDermott was his decision to start Nathan Peterman in week eleven. The rookie quarterback threw five interceptions and the game was lost horribly but to McDermott’s credit he did not lose the team after this debacle and nearly everything else has been impressive about the way the Bills have competed in his first year. Their offence may only be ranked twenty-sixth in the league by DVOA, but they can run the ball and Tyrod Taylor may be conservative but he does not turn the ball over. In LeShaun McCoy the Bills have a running back that can break big runs but he is carrying an ankle injury coming into this game and whilst it looks like he will start, a back that is successful because of their lateral movement and explosiveness is definitely going to be affected by an ankle problem. This is a shame given that the Jaguars rank a surprising twenty-sixth against the run. The Bills defence is sold rather than spectacular but did generate twenty-five turn overs, which was eleventh in the league.

In this battle of playoff underdogs my heart wants the Bills to win, but the head thinks that the Jaguars are the better team. If Blake Bortles has a bad game and McCoy can show some of his top form then the Bills can win this game, but they really need further improvements to truly compete and I would expect the Jaguars to win this one.

This game does represent want the NFL wants, competitive balance with every team truly able to sell to their fans that next season we can make the playoffs..

Carolina Panthers ((11-5) @ New Orleans Saints (11-5)

The final game of the weekend looks to be one of the most competitive as two division rivals with matching records face off against each other.

The Carolina Panthers have had a strange season where their defence has looked good all year, finishing sixth by DVOA but the offence has been up and down all season. An early attempt to change the way Cam Newton plays did not work and it was only when they went back to running him that the offence was truly effective. The problem with this is that unlike the season where he led this team to the Super Bowl, Newton’s play has been erratic and he has put in some truly bad passing performances. However, he is a truly dynamic player that can wreak havoc running the ball and he is likely to need to as his receiving options are not playing that well currently and his favourite receiver Greg Olson has not returned to his usual form since returning from the foot injury that kept the tight end out for most of the season. The Panthers do have a dynamic rookie receiving running back in Christian McCaffrey but with the evolution of the offence it doesn’t feel like the Panthers have a clear overall plan and so he has flashed his undoubted skill rather than dominated.

The Panthers travel to face a Saints team who have demonstrated just how quickly a team can turn round in the NFL. The Saints were coming off three seasons of 7-9 and seemed to be wasting the end of Drew Brees Hall of Fame career as they could not surround him with a defence that could make the team competitive. The highlights of this turn around are two players who could arguably be offensive and defensive rookie of the year. In running back Alvin Kamara they have an efficient complement to Mark Ingram who is truly terrifying in space and has the hands to help Drew Brees in the short passing game. In Marshone Lattimore they have a rookie corner who looks anything but a rookie and although it took a few weeks for the defence to gel, they finished the season ranked eighth in the league by DVOA and the Saints were overall number one as well.

The easy narrative for this game is that it is hard to beat a team three times in a row, but football is a game of matchups and in both of their previous games the Saints have scored thirty points and won the game. The Panthers have been one of the more aggressive teams in the league in terms of blitzing and the Saints have been pretty similar in this aspect of defence, but Brees is a much more precise quarterback and is better equipped to exploit the quick passes necessary to disarm the blitz. Newton is more than capable of using his legs to gain yards and avoid pressure but it feels like the Panthers, whilst being competitive are less likely to win this game.

I am very much looking forward to seeing how this game unfolds, but I do expect the Saints to run out winners for a third time.

The first game of the weekend pits the stumbling Titans against the resurgent Chiefs.

The Chiefs started the season strongly, winning five straight games before losing their way in the middle of the season but having won their last four games they are looking something more like the team that started the season. Ever since Andy Reid handed play calling duties back to his co-ordinator Matt Nagy things have gone better for the Chiefs offence, which finished the season ranked fourth in the NFL by DVOA. However, the defence has continued to struggle, ranked thirtieth overall by DVOA and last is in the league against the run.

The Titans’ season never quite took off this season, but they kept grinding out enough results to make the playoffs. They are not the worst ranked team in the playoffs by DVOA but their offence has struggled and Marcus Mariota has not really looked right all year despite the team investing in receiving options in the offseason. It will not help an offence that was at least top ten in running the ball to be missing running back DeMarco Murray who has been ruled out through injury. The Titans will need to run the ball effectively against the Chiefs’ poor run defence to control the clock if they are to win this game and have lost half of their two pronged back field.

There is a template for the Titans to win this game, but on the road in the famously loud Arrowhead stadium I find it hard to see them running the ball well enough and containing the explosive Chiefs offence enough to win. They might keep it close, this is the playoffs after all, but in the end I think the Chiefs run out winners in this one.

Atlanta Falcon (10-6) @ Los Angeles Rams (11-5)

In one of the games of the weekend the Rams who changed their fortunes so drastically in a year welcomes a Falcons team who are still trying to get over last season.

The Rams made a statement against the Indianapolis Colts in the opening game of the season and have pretty much lived up to it for the rest of the year. In fact the only true bad loss of the year was against Washington in week two. Certainly by the time they faced the Seahawks for a second time they were up for the challenge and got the biggest win for a road team in Seattle in a very long time. There has been a lot of praise for thirty-one year old rookie head coach Sean McVay who has turned round a moribund offence whilst being brave enough to hire Wade Philips and let him do his thing despite Philips being over twice McVay’s age. The offence built around Todd Gurely, who ran for thirteen hundred yards and caught nearly eight hundred yards of passing, has made Jared Goff a competent quarterback and they have put up big scores against the teams they should whilst competing well against better competition. The defence has also played well and is also top ten by DVOA plus boasts in Aaron Donald, a terrifying interior pass rusher who should be defensive player of the year. They may lack playoff experience but they are a formidable proposition.

The Atlanta Falcons were always going to find the year after the lost such a big lead in the Super Bowl difficult, but with Kyle Shanahan leaving to become head coach of the 49ers the offence has stumbled all year. They have more than enough talent and in Julio Jones one of the very best receivers in the league but whilst some regression to the mean after last year’s stellar season was to be expected, this team is only just in the top ten of offences by DVOA and that doesn’t seem good enough. More worrying for them is that starting guard Andy Levitre tried to go in the last game of the season and only managed five plays. Facing Aaron Donald is not the time to have a backup playing one of your interior offensive line spots. Even more worrying for the Falcons is that their defence is a surprising twenty-second by DVOA and whilst I knew that Vic Beasly wasn’t playing with the form he had last season where he was one of the leading sack getters, I thought this fast young defence was better than their DVOA ranking. They also play the same scheme as the Seahawks who the Rams have played twice this year and so it could be a long day against a very good offence.

This looks to be a really good game, and I’m thoroughly looking forward to it, but I have to think that the Rams will win out in the end. That said, some small part of me still thinks that the Falcons of last season might re-appear, but it would be a surprising if the Rams didn’t win..

With yesterday’s games turning out to be easy home wins, our attention shifts to tonight’s matchups in the hopes of more competitive fixtures

Miami Dolphins (10-6) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)

In something of a theme for wildcard week, the Miami Dolphins face the Steelers with a backup quarterback. However, Matt Moore has looked pretty good and has at least won two of the three games that he has played. The Dolphins offence may not be consistently effective, but they have a number of play makers, and Jay Ajayi will be hoping to have the kind of success he had against the Steelers in week six when he ran for two hundred yards and the Dolphins won the game. That win sparked a six game win streak to take the Dolphins from 1-4 to 7-4 but this game is a tough ask. Their defence will face a difficult teat against the Steelers, particularly with their twenty-second ranked rush defence by DVOA goes against Le’Veon Bell, but if Ndamukong Suh and Cameron Wake can get going then maybe the Dolphins can contain them.

The strength of this Steelers team is the combination of Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, and Le’Veon Bell. However, Roethlisberger has not quite looked himself since his return from a knee injury and it is very possible that he is banged up. As a result Antonio Brown has not been quite as dominant as last season, but he is still a phenomenal player, and you only have to look at the play he made against the Ravens in week sixteen as he stretched for the winning touchdown to see the impact he can still have. The good news for the Steelers is that they finally come into the playoffs with Le’Veon Bell healthy and having run for over twelve hundred yards in just twelve games. The defence may present some concerns given their up and down performance but they will want to make up for the two hundred yards they gave up early in the year.

If the Dolphins defence can do enough to limit the Steelers, then with their big play options on offence the Dolphins can do enough to win this game, but it is hard to see them doing so. This is Adam Gase’s first year with the Dolphins and their first appearance in the playoffs since the 2008 season, whilst the Steelers are filled with playoff experience and an offence that if it gets going could put this game away quickly. I expect the Steelers to win this game, but it wouldn’t surprise me if the Dolphins got beaten heavily or made a game of it.

New York Giants (11-5) @ Green Bay Packers (10-6)

This is the game of the wildcard weekend. The Packers won their division with a six game win streak after Aaron Rodgers stated they would win out and the team backed that up by doing just that. The Packers have had problems with injuries, patching up their secondary and making do at running back. The offence has now found a formula they can make work and have scored thirty or more in the last four games. However, although defence led the league in rush defence early on, injuries have seen this unit slip to be distinctly average. At home they will hope that the offence can take the pressure off, but a young secondary could be the Achilles heel of the Packers in this game.

The Giants come into this game with a defence ranked number two in defence by DVOA having been thirtieth the year before. This is the largest single year improvement of defence ever recorded by DVOA and is off the back of a bunch of free agent signings and a major step forward by second year safety Landon Collin. In fact Collins leads the team in tackles with one hundred, plus four sacks, and five interceptions, which is an incredible season by anyone’s standard. This defence turnaround is very timely as the offence has really struggled for a lot of this year. The Giants have been unable to run the ball effectively and Eli Manning has thrown sixteen interceptions as he’s struggled to find his receivers consistently. Both Sterling Shepard and Victor Cruz have had their moments, but too often the Giants offence has been reliant on big plays to Odell Beckham. That said, Paul Perkins did manage to run for one hundred yards against Washington next week, and if the Giants can be a bit more balanced on offence or find Beckham a couple of times then they stand a real chance in this game.

I am really not sure who is going to win this one, but I am expecting a good game to close out the Wildcard weekend.

I got up early on Monday to watch the condensed Bengals at Steelers without knowing the score, and was thoroughly miserable about the result, so it was with some reluctance that I went through the final sheet of my picks spreadsheet. However, thanks to the late games, I managed to pull two games back on Dan, and so despite being behind for most of the season I managed to pull out a one game win. This happiness lasted for an hour or two before my worry about the upcoming weekend began to set in.

Still, we now come to the part of the year where I get to see all the games so let’s take a look at the upcoming Wildcard Weekend.

There are times when trying to follow an entire league where you get things wrong. The human brain is used to looking for patterns and narratives, and we are also used to putting labels on things and leaving them there. In something as complicated as sport this can be a problems as we often try to fit a narrative to random events, but it is also possible to miss the development of a team across the season if you are not watching carefully enough. I have seen every play of the Bengals season so far, but it is simply not possible for me to do this for thirty-two teams. Looking back, I still had the impression I got watching the Panthers in week six in mind when I wrote about them last week, and this is despite going through the coaching tape that told a different story in week nine.

I went back and watched them beat up on the Falcons in the final game of the season to get them into the playoffs, and I think is going to be an interesting game. The Panthers are playing better football now than they were in mid-season. The defence has really come together with a physical front seven that is now getting a pass rush, and a young secondary that seems to have coalesced into a functional unit. They may only be ranked fifteenth by DVOA, but I would suggest they are playing better than that currently and they are an impressive unit.

On offence, the Panthers seem to have carved themselves an identity as a running team. They use multiple run options from within the same play, and I’m amazed at how much Cam Newton is running considering that it really isn’t that long ago that he sustain fractures to part of his back in a car crash. He is still firing the ball in the passing game, but there is a little more touch, but mainly there seems to be a coherent identity that is working for this team. They are going up against a run defence that is ranked seventh in the league, but that did give up a pair of two hundred yard games at the end of the season so they may be able to make this work in this game.

The Cardinals have limped their way into the playoffs, and despite having an 11-5 record, this is going to be a much closer game than the gap in regular season win total might suggest. The Cardinals coaching staff have done a brilliant job in coping with injuries, but having powered away to a 9-1 start, their season has limped home and it looks like the week fifteen injury to Drew Stanton was a quarterback too far.

The Cardinals have struggled in the run game for most of the year, but having first lost their vertical passing game when Carson Palmer went down for a second and final time, the loss of Drew Stanton has seriously hampered this unit. Whilst Ryan Lindley can make some good looking throws, he also routinely makes bad decisions and is 0-2 as a starter for the Cardinals, whilst throwing two touchdowns to four interceptions. He will be going against a physical defence that I suspect will be able to get turnovers against a young and inexperienced quarterback.

The defence has been the foundation of the Cardinals season, and ranked inside the top ten by DVOA for most of the season. It is a unit that uses a large number of defensive backs and pressure to force mistakes and cover the modern passing game. They rely on their corners standing up in outside coverage so they can frequently blitz and this pressure has only increased as defensive coordinator Todd Bowles seems to have been given licence to take more risks given the issues the Cardinals are having on the offensive side of the ball.

I think that this should be a fascinating game between two teams with really good defences and I will be interested to see how the Cardinals cope with the Panthers running attack, and how they try to attack the Panthers defence.

Ravens @ Steelers

DVOA: Ravens Steelers

Overall 5th 8th
Offensive 9th 2nd
Defensive 8th 30th
Special Teams 2nd 12th
The Saturday schedule is rounded out with what should be a bruising encounter between AFC North rivals.

The Steelers have had an erratic season with some huge wins, and horrible losses to bad teams, but they managed to win out in December to take the division. They have mainly done this behind an offence that is ranked second in the league by DVOA, and that can be truly terrifying. The problem is that a major cog in that offence, second year back Le’Veon Bell, who has looked like the best back in the league for long stretches of the season is going to miss this game with a knee injury he picked up in the final game against the Bengals. However, the way to attack this Ravens defence is through the air as their secondary has been hit hard by injuries, and the Steelers have the passing attack to do this. Whether they will be able to use the empty backfield sets with the running back split out as a receiver remains to be seen, but Antonio Brown is as good as any receiver in the league. The o-line has looked much more solid than has often been the case in recent Steelers seasons, and they will need to stand up in pass protection if they are going to have success this week.

Unusually for the Steelers, the defence has been the problem this season, ranked an uncharacteristic thirtieth by DVOA, they have been patchy with injuries and age apparently catching up with them. They have done okay in recent weeks and it has been noticeable that they have been leaving the younger secondary players in the line-up so they have consistent personnel rather than having the stalwarts Ike Taylor and Troy Polamalu go in and out the line-up whilst they have been struggling with injuries. It is a sign of the problems that the Steelers have had that they pulled James Harrison out of retirement, but whilst he has shown flashes of his old self and has managed five and a half sacks in eleven games, this is a defence that has been merely coping for large parts of the season.

The Ravens are an interesting team that for large parts of the season looked like the most complete team in the AFC North, but couldn’t quite overcome the problems they developed in the secondary to win the division.

On offence the Ravens have looked good for most of the year, working behind a rejuvenated running game that saw Justin Forsett gain 1266 yards for the season, and a very solid season in the passing game. Joe Flacco has quietly thrown for nearly four thousands yards, and more importantly has throw twenty-seven touchdowns with only twelve interceptions. Steve Smith has been struggled to maintain the early hot start he had, but managed to gain over a thousand yards receiving and added some fire to the offence to go with Torrey Smith and Owen Daniels. This turn around from a DVOA ranking of thirtieth last year demonstrates what a good hire Gary Kubiak was as offensive coordinator.

The problem for the Ravens down the stretch has been the number of injuries they’ve had in the secondary. They have got away with this to an extent as they haven’t really faced a tough passing attack but this is going to change this week. The Ravens will have to hope that the fearsome combination of Elvis Dummervil and Terrell Suggs as pass rushers will get enough pressure to disrupt Ben Roethlisberger and his receivers. It may well help that they are getting Haloti Ngata back from a four game suspension, particularly as the rookie tackle Timmy Jernigan who has been playing so well in Ngata’s absence will miss the game with a foot injury.

Whilst I would never discount the Ravens, I fear that their secondary will be exposed in this game and whilst Le’Veon Bell will be a huge miss for the Steelers, I think their passing game is more terrifying than anything the Ravens have to offer.

Bengals @ Colts

DVOA: Bengals Colts

Overall 13th 12th
Offensive 18th 17th
Defensive 14th 13th
Special Teams 6th 8th
The Colts are an interesting case as if you look at the DVOA rankings, you would think this is a well balanced team. However, this is a team that is built on a couple of exceptionally good players that are masking what is to me an unconvincing roster. These are brave words considering the beating they gave the Bengals earlier in the season and how rotten the Bengals playoff results in recent years have been, but I will try to justify them below.

I’m not sure there is a team that relies more on their quarterback to win than the Colts. They have a running game that is ranked twenty-seventh in the league, and are a team who thought it was a good idea to trade a first round pick for Trent Richardson. This team goes where Andrew Luck takes them, but the o-line does not give him great protection and it is only because TY Hilton is amazing at getting open, and the support Coby Fleener and an ageing Reggie Wayne give in the passing game that Luck is able to drag them along. However, Luck has been throwing a lot of interceptions recently and has been having a big problem with fumbles. There is no question that Luck is a really good quarterback, but he can only overcome so much and this team ask him to do a lot.

On defence the Colts have played well in patches, and have a really good corner in Vontae Davis, but in truth I am surprised by their ranking by DVOA. That said, if you look at their record you can see problems against better teams as they got pounded by the Patriots in the run game, giving up 246 yards as part of five hundred yard day, and they gave up over six hundred yards against the Steelers. The Bengals have been running the ball really well recently behind rookie Jeremy Hill and they will need to hold up against this if they want to win.

The Bengals have coped pretty well since losing both coordinators from last year, but having said that it was a playoff win or bust this year, it all comes down to this game.

On offence, the talk of a commitment to the running game that there was in the offseason has solidified in recent weeks around a running game headed up by rookie Jeremy Hill with Giovani Bernard spelling him. There have been problems in the passing game with AJ Green battling injuries for large parts of the seasons and I suspect he will miss this game with a concussion. This is almost a microcosm of the problems this season as he’s been battling a bicep injury he sustained going for a ball that sailed on Andy Dalton, and picked up the concussion when trying to fight for yards at the end of the Steelers game. The problem with Andy Dalton is that whilst he has got his team into the playoffs for the first four years of his career, he can be inconsistent and these problems tend to surface in big games. That said, the Bengals looked good in getting their Monday night win against the Broncos, and new offensive coordinator Hue Jackson is really helping Dalton succeed by focussing on the running game and asking him to do less, whilst it often felt like Jay Gruden was asking him to do too much in past years. The Patriots demonstrated that you can be physical and run on the Colts so hopefully this can work in this game.

On defence, the Bengals have slipped with the departure of Mike Zimmer to be head coach of the Vikings, and have struggled against the run for large parts of the season. They are top ten in pass defence, which is a measure of how good and deep their secondary is as the pass rush has been patchy all season. However, injuries at linebacker, particularly missing Vontaze Burfict for most of the season has really hurt them in the run game. The defence line has not been quite up to where it was last season, but Geno Atkins is still coming back to full form since his ACL injury and Margus Hunt has been out recently as they try to patch up the loss of Michael Geathers to the Buccaneers.

I think that the Bengals can finally win this game, and get revenge for the shut out loss earlier in the season. Both the Bengals and the Panthers came out flat the week after they played five quarters of football, and I think this contributed to the Bengals horrible loss against the Colts. If the Bengals can look after the ball and run the ball effectively, then they can finally get that playoff win and try to push on, but I would never count out a team with Andrew Luck at quarterback.

Lions @ Cowboys

DVOA: Lions Cowboys

Overall 14th 6th
Offensive 19th 4th
Defensive 3rd 22nd
Special Teams 31st 13th
The final game of the weekend pits the Cowboys great offence against the Lions top notch defence.

The Cowboys finally got their winning season, but the overhaul on this team was not flashy, it was a sustained investment in the offensive line, which has resulted in one of the most impressive units in the league. The o-line enabled DeMarco Murray to break Emmitt Smith’s single season rushing record for the Cowboys and enabled him to become the only back to start the season with eight straight 100 yard games, breaking Jim Brown’s previous best of six. Not only have done this, but Tony Romo regularly gets such great protection that he can sit in the pocket for five or six seconds without having to worry about the oppositions pass rush. That said, they are going against the third ranked offense by DVOA, that will offer them a real challenge, but Romo has had more support than he’s ever had, and the results in the pass game have flourished alongside the running attack.

The Cowboys defence however, has been held together by smoke and mirrors all season, with co-ordinator Rod Marinelli crafting a credible defence with a dearth of talent. They are not spectacular, but they are playing hard for their coach who has been working overtime to create way to rush the passer and keep his team in games. This unit may be a problem if the Cowboys get deeper into the playoffs, but they might not be in this game.

The Lions have all the talent at the skill positions to be a good offence, even if Calvin Johnson has struggled with injury as they finally have a second receiver to go with him. In fact, Golden Tate has actually led the team in receiving yards and receptions this year, but the problem for this unit has been the o-line that has often struggled and this unit has never quite taken off except from when they’ve played the Bears. The other problem is that Matthew Stafford has never really convinced as a quarterback, and he has a habit of locking onto receivers, and whilst this is not exactly a bad plan when you are throwing to Calvin Johnson, it doesn’t necessarily win you the big game.

What has been winning games for this team has been the defence that I would have said was playing with more discipline this season. However, how Ndamukong Suh won his appeal having stomped on Aaron Rodgers I do not know. He has been part of a fearsome defensive line that has helped this defence lead the league in run defence by DVOA. They also have one of the league’s standout coverage linebackers in DeAndre Levy, and a pass defence that has been just as good as the rush defence.

This could very well be the game of the weekend, but I would think you just have to trust Tony Romo more than Mattew Stafford, who is 0-16 on the road against teams with a winning record. I’m not usually a fan of these kinds of statistics, but that one does seem to speak of a problem.

I’m really looking forward to this week’s games, so roll on the postseason football.