We could (theoretically) see the two longest active streaks
without a playoff win end this week. The Bengals (1990) and
Lions (1991) are the two active franchises that have gone the
longest without a playoff win.

By comparison, the next longest streak among teams in the
playoffs belongs to the Panthers, who last won a
playoff game in 2005.

Ryan Lindley actually looked... well, just bad against the
49ers last week (as opposed to looking completely awful against
the Seahawks). If he can avoid turnovers, the Cardinals
will have a chance.

On the other hand, the Panthers are riding a 4-game winning
streak thanks largely to their defense, and if they keep that up,
the Panthers will have their first playoff win in 9 years.

The Ravens' offense has actually been pretty good this year,
with Joe Flacco rather quietly having one of the best seasons of
his career, throwing 27 touchdowns to only 12 interceptions. If
the Ravens' defense can get on a roll, they could actually make a
run in the playoffs.

On the other hand, the Ravens put up that ugly loss to the
Texans just a couple weeks ago, gave up 34 points to the Chargers
in late November and 43 points to the Steelers in early
November. So if the offense or defense falters, they'll very
likely be done in short order.

They will almost certainly have to do better than that against
the Cowboys, whose losses have mostly come when their opponents have
scored at least 28 points.

The Bengals-Colts game is a rematch of a game that was one of
the Bengals' ugliest losses of the season, a 27-0 shutout in week
7. And while the Colts are another team that haven't done well on
the road against good teams, they've been very good at home this
year, losing only to the Eagles and Patriots.

Especially with AJ Green and Jermaine Gresham hurt, I think the
Bengals just don't have the offensive firepower to keep up with the
Colts, so unless the Colts just faceplant this game, the Bengals
playoff drought is going to last another year.

The Pats mostly rested their starters in this game (although for
reasons unexplained Tom Brady played in the first half). The Bills
clinch their first winning season since 2004, when Drew Bledsoe
played his last season for them.

Jets @ Dolphins

Geno Smith had the best game of his career, throwing three
touchdown passes and catching the Dolphins on a very bad day
defensively. The Dolphins were 1-7 when giving up more than 20
points this season.

Panthers @ Falcons

The Falcons just couldn't get anything going on offense in this
game. Their longest drive until well into garbage time was 38
yards. That, along with a couple interceptions (both returned for
touchdowns) dug a hole the Falcons had no way out of.

Split Picks: (APR 1-1, SRS 1-1, Line 1-1)

Cardinals (APR, SRS) @ 49ers (Line)

The Cardinals surprisingly made a game of this, but Lindley's 3
interceptions was just more than the Cardinals were able to
overcome.

Eagles (APR, SRS) @ Giants (Line)

Actually a relatively close game (and equal on turnovers). But Eli
Manning threw incomplete too many times, the Giants only converted
on 1 of 3 trips in the red zone, had 106 penalty yards, and in the
end, it all added up to a loss for Big Blue.

The top seeds for both conferences occupy the top four spots in
the rankings.

Bills are the highest ranked team out of the playoffs, thanks
in part to a 4-spot bump on beating the nothing-to-play-for
Patriots.

On the one hand, I feel like #6 is to high for a Steelers team
with ugly losses to the Bucs, Jets, and Saints. On the other hand,
pretty much everyone below them has at least a couple ugly losses
on their record, so I can't really make the case that they should
be ranked lower either.

Maybe the real observation is that after the top four teams,
there's a pretty steep drop off in quality.

Unsurprisingly, the 7-8-1 Panthers are the lowest-ranked
playoff team. Of the rest, the Lions are lowest ranked at #14,
perhaps thanks some close wins over the Bucs and Vikings, followed
with a road loss to the Packers.

Could the Panthers actually get on a run in the playoffs? After a
streak of games where they were 1-8-1 from mid September to late
November, they've run off a series of 4 wins. Not exaclty against
the class of the league, but still better than anyone else in the
NFC South can claim.

The Seahawks clinch the #1 seed in the NFC for the second
season in a row, the first time it's done back-to-back since the
Eagles did it three times, 2002-2004. They certainly seem to be in
a good position to be the first defending Super Bowl champion to
win a playoff game the following season since the Patriots did it
in 2005.

A surprising amount of agreement for week 17. But most teams
have something to play for, only the Patriots and Colts have
clinched their respective seeds. Barring some unlikely
scenarios, the Cowboys will have the 3 seed in the NFC, and may
choose to rest their starters in anticipation of playing on Wild
Card weekend.

The Lions' center Dominic Raiola has been suspended for a game,
so barring a last-minute stay won't play on Sunday. That's
bad news for the Lions, especially if the Packers' pass rush can
continue where they left off last week.

The Cardinals will reportedly start Logan Thomas as quarterback
which... well, it can't be as bad as Ryan Lindley, right? Thomas
didn't look like much in relief of Drew Stanton back in week 5,
but the 49ers are not as good as the Broncos, and this time
Thomas will have a week of practice time to get ready.

I'm trying to decide if the Line is right to pick the Giants
this week. The Eagles really fell apart last week against an
opponent they should've beaten with ease, now they're facing another
opponent they really should be able to beat. I think it's probably
gonna go like last week: whoever wins the turnover battle wins the
game.

If the Panthers are going to have a chance this week, their
defense is gonna have to slow down Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Roddy
White, and Steven Jackson. The Falcons should win easily if this
game is a battle of who can score the most points on the others
bad defense.

Tuesday, December 23, 2014

Somehow, the Saints just couldn't move the ball against what has
been a pretty bad Falcons defense. The Saints had three drives
longer than 31 yards, two of which ended with a lost fumble.

Giants @ Rams

Odell Beckham is an amazing player, and when the Giants' don't turn the ball
over, they can still be a dangerous team. This is the first time since the final
week of the 2012 season that the Giants' haven't turned the ball over.

Bills @ Raiders

Trap game? Let down? Whatever you call it, a week after holding
the Packers to just 13 points, the Bills defense gave up 26 points
to the Raiders who have scored more than that just once this
season. Meanwhile the Bills could only rush for a season-low 13
yards, and Kyle Orton is just not the kind of quarterback that can
win without support from his defense and running game, even against the likes of the Raiders.

Eagles @ Washington

I'm not sure there's anything to say here besides what I noted
in the
power rankings, that the Eagles have mostly lost when they don't
score at least 30 points. Counting this game, Washington has only
made it to 27 points four times this season.

Ravens @ Texans

The Texans defense came to play in this game, holding the Ravens
to 33 yards rushing, intercepting Joe
Flacco 3 times, and holding him under 200 yards passing on 50(!)
attempts. When the Texans' defense plays like that, Case Keenum is
all they need for a quarterback.

Broncos @ Bengals

Besides Peyton Manning's struggles, the Broncos defense gave up
207 yards rushing (mostly to Jeremy Hill) and 206 kick and punt
return yards. Andy Dalton didn't look like much in this game, but
with that kind of support, he didn't need to.

Split Picks: (APR 1-3, SRS 1-3, Line 3-1)

Chargers (APR, SRS) @ 49ers (Line)

Either way this game went, you could blame turnovers and
breakdowns on defense. As much as anything, the 49ers' season-long
inability to score in the second half opened the door for the
Chargers to come back and win this game.

Chiefs (APR, SRS) @ Steelers (Line)

The Steelers' defense had perhaps their best game of the season,
holding the Chiefs to just 12 points. The Chiefs, for their part,
persued an odd strategy of settling for field goals in spite of the
fact they were playing from behind for most of the game. As I've
noted before, the Chiefs don't have a quick strike defense, so
especially when they're playing behind, they really need to get
touchdowns to have a chance.

Browns (APR, SRS) @ Panthers (Line)

Johnny Manziel looked every bit the green rookie in this
game. When Brian Hoyer came in in relief, the Browns were down a
touchdown. He was better than Manziel, but not by nearly enough,
especially with only 84 rushing yards in support (and 19 of them
coming from Hoyer himself).

Colts (APR, SRS) @ Cowboys (Line)

If there's anything that went right for the Colts in this game, I
didn't see it. Their first have drives result in a turnover on
downs, three punts, and a red zone interception. Meanwhile, the
Cowboys scored touchdowns on their first four possessions, and the
game was pretty much out of reach by halftime.

This season, the Eagles are 1-6 when they don't score at least
30 points. Which doesn't say a lot for their defense.

How good is the Packers defense? They had that ugly second half
breakdown against the Falcons a couple weeks ago, but they also
held the Buccaneers (yeah, I know, they're 2-13) to season lows on
points scored, first downs, and yards from scrimmage. They also
sacked Josh McCown 7 times, most all year.

Remember
how I
said in the game picks that the Colts were bad on the road
against good teams? Yeah, that. The Colts had 1 rushing yard on
Sunday. One.

That was a really ugly game for Peyton Manning Monday night. He
hasn't had a 4 interception outing since 2010.

The Saints have lost 5 home games for the first time since
2007, Payton and Brees's second season with the team.

With the Bills' elimination from the playoffs this week, their
streak of longest active playoff appearance drought will continue
for at least another
year. The Music
City Miracle game remains the Bills' last playoff
appearance.

No line for Browns @ Panthers. Maybe waiting to see if Cam
Newton will play? I'll update later on in the week. Update: done.

A lot of the games this week have playoff implications. Then
there's Titans @ Jaguars which... has draft implications.

Seahawks @ Cardinals is for the NFC West, and probably the top
seed in the NFC. The Cardinals are reduced to starting erstwhile
3rd string backup Ryan Lindley. If the Cardinals' defense can hold
their opponent to 6 points again, they'll have a chance. But I
think if the Seahawks get 14 points on the board, that could be
game over for the Cards.

With the Texans reduced to starting either fourth year backup
Thad Lewis or off-the-street pickup Case Keenum, I'm a little
surprised the Ravens are only getting 5 points in this game. The
Ravens have quietly put together one of the highest scoring
offenses in the league this season, and this has the feel of a
game where the Ravens may only need a couple touchdowns to secure
a 5 point margin of victory.

I'm not really sure why the Line is taking the 49ers
here. They're out of the playoffs, they're riddled with injuries,
and coming off a string of bitter losses. Meanwhile, the Chargers
are still alive for one of the AFC wildcard spots, and desperately
need a win to stay in the race. I think unless the Chargers fall
flat on their faces, this is a game they should win.

I'm tempted to say the Colts have a real chance for an upset
at the Cowboys, except for that
whole Colts usually lose big
on the road against good opponents thing that seemed to start
when Andrew Luck came to town. But DeMarco Murray will either be
out or playing hurt, so the Cowboys won't be at their full
strength, either.

Some of the biggest flaws of the Eagles were on display in this
game: they turn the ball over a lot. Their defense isn't very good
against the pass. And when their offense isn't scoring, their fast
paced style is more of a liability than an asset.

And while the Cowboys didn't play the most amazing game either,
they only turned the ball over once, and were able to take advantage
when the Eagles gave them short fields.

Packers @ Bills

What an ugly game for the Packers' offense. The Bills' defense
deserves some credit, but this is the first time Rodgers has been
held under a 44% completion rate since he took over from Favre.

The Packers' defense played well, and the running game was
effective. But turnovers, too many incomplete passes, botched punt
coverage, and a final fumble that resulted in a safety added up more
than they were able to overcome. Perhaps the most surprising thing
about this game is the Packers had a chance to win late, in spite of
all the mistakes they made.

Split Picks: (APR 1-1, SRS 2-0, Line 2-0)

Cardinals (APR, SRS) @ Rams (Line)

Rumors of the demise of the Cardinals' defense are apparently
greatly exaggerated. They absolutely shut down the Rams' offense
(which, okay, is maybe not the biggest test in the world). But they
only allowed the Rams' into the red zone twice, holding them to
field goals each time.

And while the Cardinals' offense didn't light up the scoreboard
either, they did manage to put the game out of reach of the Rams'
struggling offense.

Saints (SRS, Line) @ Bears (APR)

Wow, the Bears seem like a broken team at this point. A defense
that struggles to stop anybody and a desultory offense is a really
bad combination. I wonder if they'll win another game this year?

Totals

Another very nice week of picks, and an unusual case of SRS gaining
a spot on APR.

The top teams seem to be pretty reasonable right now. Chiefs
are maybe a little high, but I don't think I'd drop them very far,
either.

Looking at the bottom 10, the Browns are the only team without
at least 8½ losses, but the way they've been playing lately
(1-4 in their last 5) they don't really seem that out of
place.

The Eagles are 1-3 this season when they turn the ball over 4
times. Which is remarkable since 1) they actually won one of those
games, and 2) they've had four 4-turnover games this season. The
Raiders have three 4-turnover games, and they're the only other
team in the league with more than two.

The Eagles still have a chance to win the NFC East (and a better
chance with Cowboys' RB DeMarco Murray hurt). But with the kind of
turnovers they've been having on offense, they're certainly not
set up to make a deep run if they do make it in.

Congratulations to the Cardinals, who have clinched a playoff
spot, and thus avoid becoming the first team (at least since the
1970 merger) to go 9-1 and miss the playoffs (depends on how you
measure who came closest, a number of teams made it to 7-1 and
missed the playoffs, and
the '93
Dolphins made it to 9-2 before losing out and missing the
playoffs).

Presumably the Texans will rally around Ryan
FitzpatrickRyan MalletRyan FitzpatrickTom
Savage er... Case Keenum? They're really giving the Cardinals
a run for the money as franchise with the most pathetic
quarterback situation.

Given the situation with Cam Newton, I'm surprised at this
point that there's a line for the Bucs-Panthers game. I guess
bettors figure the Bucs are just that bad.

Cowboys @ Eagles will probably decide the NFC East, which
theoretically makes for a good game. But if goes anything like the
first half of this matchup, the game is gonna be over by
halftime.

Random stat I just noticed: the AFC North leading Bengals are
the only team in that division with a negative point differential
(points scored - points allowed). In spite of the fact that all
the teams (still) have winning records, the AFC North seems like
one of the weakest divisions in the league.

The Ravens seem like the best team in that division, and it seems
like they've got an easy enough remaining schedule to win out. But
then, I thought them beating the Chargers was an all but sure
thing, too.

APR likes the Cardinals over the Rams, which seems like a
mistake to me. Credit HC Jeff Fisher, the Rams have been playing
really tough this season, and given the Cardinals anemic offense,
the Rams could have a shot at their third shut out in a row.

APR likes the Bears over the Saints, which seems like a mistake
too. I think the Bears defense is bad enough at this point that
Drew Brees and the Saints offense will score enough points that it
will be one of those games where the Bears are doomed the first
time they have a drive that doesn't end in a touchdown.

On the other hand, I thought the Saints were gonna make short
work of the Panthers last week, so maybe I should just stop trying
to guess what's gonna happen in the NFC South.

This was the bad Saints playing in this game. On offense, their
longest drive was just 34 yards until well into garbage time. On
defense, they were mostly unable to stop a Panthers' offense that
hadn't scored more than 21 points in a game since facing the Bengals
two months ago. The Saints have some talented players, but when they
have an off game, they can really stink up the joint.

Ravens @ Dolphins

The Ravens stopped the Dolphins from running. And the Dolphins'
passing game isn't enough to sustain many drives all by itself, and
so the Dolphins were only able to score 13 points in this game. And
while the Dolphins' defense has played well this season, they need
more help than 13 points from their offense to get a win against a
team that can move the ball like the Ravens.

Steelers @ Bengals

As bad as this looks for the Bengals, most of the damage came on
just two plays. The Bengals lost a fumble that the Steelers turned
into a touchdown. The Steelers subsequent drive consisted of one 94
yard touchdown pass to rookie WR Martavis Bryant. And what had been
a close game through three quarters turned into a blow-out almost in
the blink of an eye.

49ers @ Raiders

The 49ers defense had some issues in this game, giving up three
long drives for touchdowns. But to my eye, the real problem in this
game was the 49ers offense. A couple turnovers, three field goal
tries (one missed) and a touchdown aren't gonna win many games. And
that's demonostrated in the 49ers record this season. They're 2-6
when they don't score at least 22 points (it's also worth noting
those two wins came in close games against bad NFC East
opponents).

Split Picks: (APR 1-1, SRS 1-1, Line 1-1)

Seahawks (APR, SRS) @ Eagles (Line)

The Eagles' offense just wasn't able to move the ball down the
field. Apart from their second touchdown, their longest drive went
just 25 yards.

Chiefs (APR, SRS) @ Cardinals (Line)

I thought the Cardinals were in deep trouble after Jamaal Charles
scored his second touchdown of the day to give the Chiefs an 8 point
lead. But the Cardinals' defense played a lot better in this game,
shutting the Chiefs out in the second half (thanks in part to a
controversial fumble ruling) while putting together a couple scoring
drives that put them in the lead.

Wow, that was a pretty ugly game by the Packers tonight. They
haven't given up 37 points and won since 2011 (which does not
bring up happy memories for Packer fans).

That was the most passing yards the Packers' defense has given up
all season, and the only game they've given up 4 touchdown
passes. Maybe it was a fluke game, but it feels to me like the
Packers' chances to get to the Super Bowl this year just took a
major blow.

The Cardinals get a crucial home win, and with the 49ers
playing the way they have, another win week 17 seems like a real
possibility.

The Seahawks get a crucial win of their own, which means the
Seahawks @ Cardinals game week 16 will probably decide the NFC
West. And with head-to-head tiebreakers over the Packers and now
the Eagles, the Seahawks have a real shot at the top seed too.

The Patriots are down to three division games, with week 16 at
the Jets the only one on the road. Barring a major face plant, the
Pats should be able to win out with relative ease, which will get
them the #1 seed in the AFC.

Looking at APR's top 10 teams, the Chiefs and Dolphins are the only
ones that seem out of place.

And #16 may kinda low for the 9-win Cowboys, but looking at
their record, that week 6 win over the Seahawks is maybe the only
win over a quality team they have this season. They lost to the
49ers, Cardinals, and Eagles, so I'm not sure how much wins over
the likes of the Giants, Jaguars and Titans should really matter.

As an update on the monitor situation, the old one seems to be hanging in there,
and the new one is scheduled to arrive Wednesday, so it looks like FSPI
will go on as scheduled this week.

Friday, December 5, 2014

My monitor is dying. I have another on order, scheduled to arrive some time next week. Meanwhile the old one is still more-or-less usable, but I'm not sure how long that will last. Hopefully my old monitor can hang on until the new one gets here, but if it doesn't, this week's posts will be delayed until I can get going again.

No line for Giants @ Titans, probably because the Giants are a
mess right now, injury wise. I'll check again Saturday. Update:
I see a line with Giants -1, so I'm going with that.

The Cards are coming off an embarrassing loss last Sunday, will
be playing at home. In a very tough remaining schedule, this is
one of the Cards' best chances to notch another win. I think the
NFC West winner will have at least 11 wins, so the Cardinals
really need to win their last two home games to have a chance.
(And hope the Eagles can give them some help by beating the
Seahawks this week.)

When the Saints play well, they can go toe-to-toe with the best
teams in the league. When they don't play well, they're just
another bad NFC South team. If they play more like the team that
pounded the Steelers, and less like the team that couldn't get a
home win against the Bengals, they should take the NFC South
pretty easy. The first step is to take care of the Panthers, who
haven't won since the first week in October.

The Dolphins are unanimously picked to beat the Ravens which
(given the way the Fins looked Monday night) feels like a
mistake. If they can't do something about their run defense, this
will almost certainly be a game I'll be writing about in the pick
results post.

There's an amusing symmetry with the Cowboys and Bears. The
Cowboys are 8-0 when they score 20 or more points, the Bears are
0-7 when they allow more than 20 points. I think the Cowboys will
score early and often on the Bears' bad defense, the Bears'
mediocre offense (which hasn't scored more than 28 points all
season) won't be able to keep up, and both of those streaks will
be extended Thursday night.

I'm not quite sure what to make of the Seahawks @ Eagles match
up. Mark Sanchez (apart from the game against the Packers) has
done surprisingly well in relief of Nick Foles, although (again,
apart from the Packers, and maybe the Cowboys) he's faced some
pretty weak teams. If the Seahawks' defense can get some pressure,
they can probably take over this game. But the way the Eagles can
score points, it may only take a few mistakes by the Seahawks for
the Eagles to get enough of a lead to control the game
themselves.

Either way, I feel like this game will be decided when the Eagles
offense and the Seahawks defense is on the field.

Drew Brees had his best game of the season, passing for 257 yards
and 5 touchdowns, with Mark Ingram contributing 122 yards on the
ground. The Steelers did manage something of a late rally, but it's
not as close as the final score makes it look, as their final
touchdown came on the last play of the game.

Chargers @ Ravens

I watched the end of this game, and I'm still not totally sure
what happened. Into the 4th quarter, the Ravens' defense had held
the Chargers to just 13 points, putting them pretty solidly in
control of the game. Then... well then maybe the Ravens had an
injury on defense or something that I missed? Because then the
Chargers put together three sustained drives, all for touchdowns,
with the last providing the game winning points. The Ravens are now
2-5 when they give up 20 or more points.

Giants @ Jaguars

Two lost fumbles returned for touchdowns and a second half where
only one drive went longer than 21 yards is a bad, bad combination,
even against a weak team like the Jaguars.

Cardinals @ Falcons

This was a breakdown of the Cardinals' defense. They have pretty
much played all their games in the "keep it close and win it in the
4th quarter" cliche style. But without Carson Palmer, without Larry
FItzgerald, and without any support from the running game, this game
was lost when the Falcons established a 17 point advantage in the
first quarter.

Split Picks: (APR 2-1, SRS 2-1, Line 1-2)

Eagles (APR, SRS) @ Cowboys (Line)

The Cowboys didn't do themselves any favors on offense, producing
just one drive longer than 35 yards until well into garbage
time. But a more glaring problem was the Cowboys' defense, which
allowed the Eagles to score on 7 of their first 9 drives. They just
aren't the kind of team that can give up that many scores and stay
in the game.

Seahawks (APR, SRS) @ 49ers (Line)

The 49ers just had a miserable game on offense. Colin Kaepernick
barely completed half of his passes, with the longest one going for
just 16 yards. The rushing game was stuffed, with a team total of 68
yards. They only managed one drive longer than 33 yards.

Patriots (APR, SRS) @ Packers (Line)

A close game between a couple very good teams, that came down to
the last couple minutes. I was half expecting the Patriots to run
away with this one, so I gotta give a lot of credit to the Packers'
defense for at least slowing down Rob Gronkowski and LeGarrette
Blount.

The Pats made a few mistakes (letting the Packers get out to a
13-0 lead, that Jordy Nelson TD at the first half, and the missed FG
at the end of the game). It wasn't much, but with the Packers
playing as well as they were, it was enough.

Totals

Another decent week for everybody, and once again a couple road dog
wins means the algorithms pick up another game on the Line.

A lot of power rankings will, no doubt, put the Packers in the
top slot this week. But I think APR is right to keep the Pats at
#1. They still have that very impressive streak of wins over the
Broncos, Colts, and Lions. The fact that they went into a very
hostile Lambeau field, and took the Packers to the wire is still
pretty solid.

Thanks to a couple upset wins by the Falcons and Saints, we
know the eventual NFC South winner will have at least 5 wins. The
Saints seem to have a pretty easy remaining schedule, with three
division games and a visit to the struggling Bears. So in spite of
the doom-sayers, it's possible they could make it to 8 or even 9
wins.

I'm actually kinda surprised APR gave the Dolphins a one-spot
bump on their 3 point win over the now 2-10 Jets. I suppose that's
at least partly due to wins by nearly every team they've already played
this week, making their record look retroactively more
impressive.

That was a really costly loss for the Cardinals this week. Even
if they win their remaining home games (and facing the Chiefs and
Seahawks, there's no guarantees), they've still got a couple of
tough road games at the Rams and 49ers. With the Seahawks perhaps
shaking off their early season troubles, the Cardinals might
actually find themselves on the outside looking in when it comes
playoff time.

The Browns, despite their winning record, have dropped down
into the bottom 10 of the rankings. But given the quality of their
last three games (drubbing by the Texans and Bills, separated by a
squeaker win over the Falcons) I'd be hard pressed to make a case
for a much higher spot.

Every NFC South team lost last week, and all are unanimously picked
to lose this week. If that happens, every NFC South team will have
at least 8 losses.

There have already been complaints about a bad NFC South
division winner making the playoffs, while two of the Eagles
(8-3), Cowboys (8-3), Packers (8-3), Lions (7-4), Cardinals (9-2),
Seahawks (7-4) and 49ers (7-4) will be out of the playoffs.

But the truth is, the most direct route to the playoffs is, and
always has been, win your division. When league switched to four
division winners and two wildcards in 2002, that became even more
important. You wanna make the playoffs? All you gotta do is be
better than three other teams.

The battle cry of the playoffs has always been "you wanna be the
best, you gotta beat the best". Does anybody really think it's a
good idea to change it to "we're kinda good too"? Anyway, rant
over.

The Packers have been very good at home this season, but I was
a lot more confident they could win this week before the Patriots
beat the Broncos, Colts, and Lions all by 22 points or more. I'm
not sure the Packers defense will be able to stop Gronkowski or
the Pats running game, so this could be a game like Packers @
Saints, where the Packers get buried as soon as the offense
falters.

Seahawks @ 49ers is a critical game for both teams. The the
loser will be 3 games out of first place in the NFC West (assuming
the Cardinals take care of business with the Falcons) and at 7-5,
will be on the outside looking in for a wildcard spot too.

Eagles @ Cowboys is the first half of the home-and-away series
that will likely decide the NFC East winner. Looking at the tie
breaker situation, the Cowboys probably have to sweep this series
in order to win the division.

The Chiefs had a lot of problems in this game, but there's a
couple things that really stand out to me. First, on their final
scoring drive, they got inside the Raiders' 10 yard line, but
couldn't punch it in for a touchdown, instead settling for a field
goal and a slim 3 point lead.

The second thing was, after that, the Chiefs' defense desperately
needed to get a stop. Instead the Raiders drove 80 yards, and used
over 9 minutes of game time to score the go-ahead touchdown, and
left the Chiefs 95 seconds to respond. The Chiefs are really not a
quick-strike defense, especially with no timeouts left, and they
ran out of time before they could respond.

Bengals @ Texans

The Bengals certainly didn't have an amazing day on offense in
this game. They had three drives longer than 37 yards, resulting in
a touchdown, a field goal, and a turnover on downs.

So the door was certainly open for the Texans to take this
one. But Ryan Mallett was not productive passing (throwing for just
189 yards on 45 attempts) and the Texans' running game was unable to
make up the difference. The result was two field goals, a punt, and
a turnover on downs for the Texans' four best drives.

Split Picks: (APR 2-1, SRS 2-1, Line 1-2)

Cardinals (APR, SRS) @ Seahawks (Line)

The Cardinals' defense really did their job in this game, holding
the Seahawks to just 4 field goals until late in the third
quarter. If the offense had been even moderately productive, they
could've won this game. But the Cardinals' offense only crossed
midfield three times, producing a field goal, a missed field goal,
and a punt. That's just not gonna win any games. (Unless, I suppose,
the
field is a muddy mess.)

Browns (APR, SRS) @ Falcons (Line)

The Browns really tried to give this game to the Falcons, but they
just wouldn't take it. Brian Hoyer threw a couple late
interceptions, but the Falcons were only able to get one field goal
out of them. Meanwhile the Falcons couldn't much run the ball, and
left the door open for the Browns to drive for a winning field goal
at the end of the game.

Ravens (APR, SRS) @ Saints (Line)

After having goal to go early, the Saints couldn't punch the ball
in for a touchdown, they couldn't stop the Ravens' running game, and
Drew Brees threw his third pick six of the season. All in all you
gotta wonder what ever happened to the Saints team people thought
were gonna contend for the Super Bowl this year.

Totals

A nice week of picks all around, and thanks to a couple road dog
wins, the algorithms pick up a game on the Line.