All eyes will be on Barcelona on Thursday when the 11 Formula 1 teams bolt on the definitive specifications of their new cars and target performance gains in the final four-day pre-season test before they head to the season-opening Australian Grand Prix in Melbourne.

On the evidence of the first two tests, this season is set to be another close run thing, with teams very close in terms of pace.

Red Bull, who have won the constructors’ championship for the last three years, appear to be the frontrunners after eight days of testing, but they hold only a narrow advantage over Lotus with Ferrari, McLaren and Mercedes just behind.

Lotus look particularly good in terms of race pace and consistency. Romain Grosjean’s long run in Barcelona, when he ran with Hard, Medium and Medium tyres, looked more consistent and better on its tyres than anyone else in the field. Team owner Gerard Lopez told JA on Monday night that the team is delighted with the step up in performance revealed so far.

Williams’ new car caught the eye too, with Pastor Maldonado demonstrating that the car was most consistent across the different tyre compounds.

Ferrari started last season with a car that was some way off the pace, but this year look to have a better base to start from and the car is much more user-friendly. The team has focussed on short runs so far and one lap pace looks reasonable. The team is likely to do some race distance running this week, when it will bring its definitive Melbourne specification parts, including exhausts. There will also be some development parts tested out for later in the season as well as a fix for overheating of electronics experienced in the tests so far. Felipe Massa was quickest after the first test in Jerez while Fernando Alonso was second fastest overall, behind Sergio Perez’s McLaren, in Barcelona.

However, on Monday night at the Motor Sport Hall of Fame team boss Stefano Domenicalli said the team are unlikely to have the quickest car in Melbourne,

“I would be very surprised if it was the quickest car at the first race,” he said. “But if we are all close together in a couple of tenths, then the season is really long and everything is possible.”

McLaren have looked quick at times, but Jenson Button has admitted that so far they have not fully understood their new car, as it is a significant departure from the 2012 model. This means that they probably will not set the pace in Melbourne, but believe that over 10 months they will have more development potential than their rivals – it’s a tortoise and hare scenario.

Red Bull, meanwhile, have yet to reveal their exact pace in testing, but rival team sources suggest that they are the benchmark currently.

Further down the grid, Marussia look to have made a step forward with Max Chilton clocking a fastest lap that was one second quicker than either Caterham driver – Giedo van der Garde and Charles Pic – could manage in Barcelona.

While in the first test the teams focused on basic system checks on cooling and brake systems as well as taking aerodynamic measurements, the second test focused on reliability and getting an understanding of the new Pirelli tyres.

This year’s tyres have been designed to degrade quicker, which in turn will create more pit stops during a race, and they seem to be doing so as many drivers, including Sergio Perez who was very good at tyre management last season, have complained about graining.

However testing has been conducted in cooler temperatures with warmer conditions expected when the season gets under way.

The final test is the most crucial as it focuses on performance. With the teams so closely matched, Saturday afternoon’s qualifying sessions will prove even more important as starting one at the sharp end of the grid will be key.

So expect the teams to focus more deeply on tyre understanding, especially on low fuel, single lap pace as well as looking to keep the rear tyres in on race runs. They will also try out any new components which they want to bolt on the car in Melbourne.

James, any news on the Red Bull/Lotus exhaust mapping saga which came to light at the end of the 3rd test?

Many claimed that Renault thought that the rule that was put into place after Germany last year only applied to that season and both cars have built the car around that, but apparently that’s not the case?

I wish you wouldn’t make so many of the teams sound like they have a promising season ahead of them. It makes it that much harder to wait out these final two weeks until the lights go out in Melbourne.

Looking forward to the prospect of Lotus taking it a step closer to the head of the pack. It would be great to see Kimi qualify higher so that podiums are as much work as they were last year.

Also to all the central banks and your QE and money printing, keep at it. Without you how could we pay for those GPs that add so much to GdP. Bernie never thought you would find a way to get discounts on hosting fees. Well done.

Mom and dad of course.

And last, to all the little people. Keep the deam alive and you too can BS your way to the top.

It’s pre-season so one must be confused!! But i’m reading a lot of different opinions from different F1 experts. However i’m guessing the biggest change 2012 – 2013 is the use of the DRS wing, hence I believe Red Bull have lost more performance relative to the other teams ala “Double Diffusers” and I remember reading somewhere that Ferrari were working on a new innovation with the rear wing so i’m guessing they’ve gained more relative to the other teams. Coupled with the fact that they are yet to do race distance runs as you can cross-correlate low fuel runs to heavy fuel runs I believe they are really hiding their hand. Either way I hope the best driver wins in 2013!! Ok let me be a bit clearer. I hope Fernando Alonso wins in 2013!! lol

James, do you think it is true, ’cause I have found some sites that prove it, that Ferrari has some serious problems with tyre deg?Or is it really hard to tell because of the temp difference between the testing and actual race conditions?

Ferrari didn’t prevent Felipe from beating Alonso in quali. Of course once he fell back, they focused on their only chance, Alonso. This is a new season, and if Felipe is competitive in the first races, he will have a chance.

James, I did read that one of the team principals (can’t remember which) said that Melbourne is an odd kind of track and added that if you are quick their you are not so likely to be quick everywhere else as it puts different demands on the car ant tyres. I this a fair assumption?

I read the same thing but think it was actually Webber when asked about his chances of winning his home race for the first time. He was saying that due to the characteristics on Melbourne the Red Bull may not be quickest as the car is designed as you’d expect to be as quick as possible for the whole season rather than focusing on being the quickest at the first race.

I know mark webber made similar comments last week. He said although he’d love to win his home GP the Melbourne circuit is not really going to show the ‘adaptable’ cars which will be built for other tracks.

I’m guessing the Melbourne circuit being temporary with its unusual corners is still not indicative.

This gets brought up a lot but results don’t really bear this out. Look at the Melbourne winners for the last few years:

2012 – Button/Mclaren – arguably the fastest car over the whole season, Lewis was on pole too
2011 – Vettel/Red Bull – WDC, dominant all year
2010 – Button/McLaren – inherited the win from Vettel/Red Bull, who were the fastest combo that year
2009 – Button/Brawn – WDC and fastest combo especially at the start of the year
2008 – Hamilton/McLaren – WDC and fast all year
2007 – Raikkonen/Ferrari – WDC (although not pacesetting until later in the year)
2006 – Alonso/Renault – WDC, fast all year
2005 – Fisichella/Renault – Fisi didn’t win another race but Renault won WDC/WCC that year
2004 – Schumacher/Ferrari – WDC and dominant all year
2003 – Coulthard/McLaren – The last time there was a Melbourne winner that was completely out of sync with the rest of the season.

Well I think Lotus are the fastest so far but we will see the new aero packages in the last teat also Renault engine mapping changed so the way I see it is that Hamilton could be the dark horse at Melbourne, and so far Redbull seems to be struggling, even worse than this stage last season.

In terms of times, I doubt they’re just going off who posted what time. For one, it’s easy enough to nail two sectors and then back it off in the last sector to post an overall averagey lap time. When the teams look at other teams, I imagine they’d be looking in a lot more detail at times, and things like consistency, tyre deg, spying on each other’s flow-viz displays, car behaviour, etc.

If, for a simple example, the Merc posted a great lap time, but through the whole lap it looked like the thing was understeery on entry, oversteery and spinning its wheels on exit, sliding about in high speed corners, etc…. and then on the other hand the Red Bull wasn’t far behind the Merc’s times but cruising around the circuit in a perfectly calm fashion… even if the Merc’s posted time was faster, one might be inclined to think the Red Bull is the better car, with more pace available if pushed harder.

I think one of the drivers (Max Chilton or one of the other rookies) also said that going through corners it seems that Red Bull is easily the fastest and that Lotus looks very stable mid-corner. If i find the quote, i’ll post it.

I thought red bull and Vettel were still odds on favorites reading most sites? I guess you’ll always get a variety of opinions but its frankly ignoring past evidence to assume red bull will have fallen by the wayside.

Cars’ first impression is at P1 of the first race. Now that would be an exciting and unpredictable first quarter of the season with lots of things going wrong for the teams and the best ones will rise to the occasion.

You allude to it later in the article, but I’d like to mention that Ferrari is on record saying that their definitive spec for the first race will be bolted on in Melbourne on Friday, not “in Barcelona on Thursday when the 11 Formula 1 teams bolt on the definitive specifications of their new cars”.

Mr Allan, could you please shed some light
why this year the tyres are 2 kg heavier than
last year?,is the wheel rim bigger!
As for Red Bull surely the implimatetion of
front wing flex of 10 mm instead of 20 at any
given time in addition the use of DRS in the
alocated zone only it must play to some degree
in their front running performace.
Your thoughts if any, please.

James wrote: “The tyres are two kilos per set heavier than last year’s, due to a change in the carcass in order to increase the footprint of the tyre. Extra support material is needed to avoid sidewall buckling. The larger footprint will increase braking stability.”

Regarding the Force India driver situation, is there any probability of the team alternating between the two candidates (Adrian Sutil & Jules Bianchi) at the start of the season?

Red Bull did something similar in 2005 with Christian Klien and Vitantonio Liuzzi. Klien did the first 3, Liuzzi the next 4 or 5, then Klien took over again and – in the end – kept it till the end of the season.

“Jenson Button has admitted that so far they have not fully understood their new car, as it is a significant departure from the 2012 model.”

I thought the 2013 McLaren is an evolution from last year, and from what I saw, it ain’t much different from the end of last season. With Perez able to drive it around without problems, is this more of a Button issue than McLaren?

The Renault is a good engine, but there’s not much wrong with having a Ferrari engine sitting behind you.

With the exception of Monza 2008, Toro Rosso have never been particularly successful, but that’s not what they’re there for. They’re there as a development team for new drivers to make their their way to RBR – at least that’s the theory.

In practice I don’t really get the point. With the exception of Vettel they’ve ditched every single driver they’ve had so far. I can’t see why Dietrich bothers running a second team when it would be simpler and easier to just recruit a driver from another team (or even a decent GP2 driver) like everyone else.

Fair enough I don’t have mega-wads of cash like he does, but if I did I could think of better uses for it

his sponsors are not able to pay what was promised…. and it seems now Heiki (probabnly due to Marrussia-MClaren teamup) plus his willingness to drive for free is a top contender for the seat …. narain is also with a shout thanks to his Indian sponsors …. nothing against Razia but all this mess puts him in a backfoot …and gives Chilton extra mileage on a car which he hardly knows…. maybe Marrusia could have kept Timo and worked as normal