Evan Silva

Matchups

Thanksgiving Fantasy Matchups

Fire up your fantasy players in this game. The 55.5-point over/under on Packers-Lions is easily the highest of Week 12, with Saints-Giants (51) a distant second. ... Opponents' constant double-teaming of Ndamukong Suh has freed up DEs Cliff Avril and Kyle Vanden Bosch for a combined 12 sacks and seven forced fumbles. Rush specialists Lawrence Jackson and Willie Young have 6.5 more sacks. While Detroit is playing top-five pass defense in large part due to its ferocious front four, Green Bay is one of the few NFL teams capable of containing Suh with single blocks. Packers RG Josh Sitton found ways to neutralize Suh in each of the clubs' 2010 meetings, leading Suh to deem Sitton the toughest one-on-one matchup he's faced to date. The Packers can also keep the pass rush at bay with a moving pocket. Aaron Rodgers is deadly throwing on the run, and it wouldn't be surprising to see him rack up rushing yards in this game. ... Greg Jennings hasn't exceeded 46 yards since Week 7, but has a touchdown in three of his last four outings. Jennings' knee contusion suffered in last week's win over the Bucs isn't a concern. Through ten games, he's the No. 8 wideout in fantasy football. ... Jordy Nelson incredibly ranks 69th in the NFL in targets, but third in fantasy scoring among wide receivers. It requires serious big-play ability in order to pull that off. Nelson leads the league in yards per catch among players with at least 20 receptions, and only Calvin Johnson and Rob Gronkowski have more receiving scores this year.

Rodgers' target distribution since the Week 8 bye: Jennings 19, Nelson 18, Jermichael Finley 14, Donald Driver 11, James Jones 5, Randall Cobb 4. ... Finley's production has been inconsistent, but the Packers' passing offense is efficient enough with plenty of volume to support three big-time fantasy pass catchers. Over the course of the year, only Jimmy Graham, Gronkowski, Tony Gonzalez, and Jason Witten have scored more fantasy points among tight ends. Leading the Packers in red-zone targets over the past four games, Finley is a good bet to find pay dirt in this projected shootout. ... Driver isn't producing and Jones isn't getting the rock enough for either to be a viable fantasy play. Driver hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 6, averaging 33 yards a game during that span. Jones didn't secure any of his three Week 11 targets. ... James Starks (knee, ankle) is a game-time decision, potentially leaving Ryan Grant and John Kuhn to handle backfield duties. Grant has been thoroughly ineffective, failing to score a touchdown all season, managing 120 yards on his last 49 carries (2.45 YPC), and appearing dead legged in the process. If you're desperate to play a Packers running back at Detroit, Kuhn is a better bet to score. Kuhn has three touchdowns in the past month and is a fixture in Green Bay's goal-line packages.

As suspected, Matthew Stafford's four-interception Week 10 game was more attributable to windy Soldier Field than his fractured index finger. Now 25 days removed from the injury -- it occurred at Denver in Week 8 -- Stafford is returning from a five-TD destruction of Carolina. He ranks second to only Rodgers in touchdown passes this season, and among quarterbacks only Rodgers, Cam Newton, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees have scored more fantasy points. Trust Stafford against the Packers' No. 31 pass defense in a likely high-scoring affair. ... Calvin Johnson has scored eight touchdowns in seven career meetings with the Packers, averaging five catches and 75 yards per game. Charles Woodson is typically assigned to Megatron, but it hasn't worked. ... Nate Burleson has been an every-down receiver all season, so there's no great explanation for his dramatic swings in production. Burleson has been hot recently with 15 catches in his last two games. We do know that he plays slot receiver in all three-wide sets, and can eat into Brandon Pettigrew's over-the-middle targets and catches when Burleson's role increases in a given week. Ultimately, Burleson is a roll of the dice as a WR3. ... Titus Young plays in three- and four-receiver packages only. While his big-play ability and this game's scoring projection make him somewhat intriguing, Young will likely need a long bomb to be a worthwhile fantasy start. Working in Young's favor is the fact that Green Bay has allowed the most 20-plus yard completions in the NFC this season.

Green Bay has been generous to tight ends this year, through ten games allowing 49 receptions for 693 yards and five TDs to the position. It's a five-catch, 69-yard weekly average. Pettigrew is a respectable low-end TE1. ... Tony Scheffler is the NFC's Scott Chandler. He's scored five times, but is averaging under 20 yards a game. ... Maurice Morris started against the Panthers and saw the first four carries in the Lions' backfield, gaining two yards. It became apparent early in the second quarter that Kevin Smith would be the better option. Smith broke off gains of 15, 43, and 28 on his initial three touches, finding pay dirt on the third. From the second quarter on, this was Detroit's backfield touch distribution: Smith 19, Morris 4, Keiland Williams 0. Morris and Williams are terrible, so Smith should comfortably be the lead back until Jahvid Best returns. I just wouldn't get overly excited. While Smith hit 10 plays of nine yards or longer against a Carolina defense that was taken apart by Chris Johnson the week before, he showed ordinary run skills and no second gear in the open field. Smith was caught from behind on his 43-yard sprint, and the 28-yard score came on a well-blocked screen pass. In the second half, the Dan Connor-less Panthers turned in a clinic for bad tackling. While sheer opportunity is indispensable in fantasy football, my early prognosis is that Smith's big game was largely the result of his opponent. I personally am starting Smith as an RB2 against the Packers, counting on his excellent passing-game skills to buoy his fantasy stats in down weeks for rushing. I expect plenty of the latter against competent defenses.

Score Prediction: Packers 34, Lions 27

Thanksgiving Football

12:30PM ET Game

Green Bay @ Detroit

Fire up your fantasy players in this game. The 55.5-point over/under on Packers-Lions is easily the highest of Week 12, with Saints-Giants (51) a distant second. ... Opponents' constant double-teaming of Ndamukong Suh has freed up DEs Cliff Avril and Kyle Vanden Bosch for a combined 12 sacks and seven forced fumbles. Rush specialists Lawrence Jackson and Willie Young have 6.5 more sacks. While Detroit is playing top-five pass defense in large part due to its ferocious front four, Green Bay is one of the few NFL teams capable of containing Suh with single blocks. Packers RG Josh Sitton found ways to neutralize Suh in each of the clubs' 2010 meetings, leading Suh to deem Sitton the toughest one-on-one matchup he's faced to date. The Packers can also keep the pass rush at bay with a moving pocket. Aaron Rodgers is deadly throwing on the run, and it wouldn't be surprising to see him rack up rushing yards in this game. ... Greg Jennings hasn't exceeded 46 yards since Week 7, but has a touchdown in three of his last four outings. Jennings' knee contusion suffered in last week's win over the Bucs isn't a concern. Through ten games, he's the No. 8 wideout in fantasy football. ... Jordy Nelson incredibly ranks 69th in the NFL in targets, but third in fantasy scoring among wide receivers. It requires serious big-play ability in order to pull that off. Nelson leads the league in yards per catch among players with at least 20 receptions, and only Calvin Johnson and Rob Gronkowski have more receiving scores this year.

Rodgers' target distribution since the Week 8 bye: Jennings 19, Nelson 18, Jermichael Finley 14, Donald Driver 11, James Jones 5, Randall Cobb 4. ... Finley's production has been inconsistent, but the Packers' passing offense is efficient enough with plenty of volume to support three big-time fantasy pass catchers. Over the course of the year, only Jimmy Graham, Gronkowski, Tony Gonzalez, and Jason Witten have scored more fantasy points among tight ends. Leading the Packers in red-zone targets over the past four games, Finley is a good bet to find pay dirt in this projected shootout. ... Driver isn't producing and Jones isn't getting the rock enough for either to be a viable fantasy play. Driver hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 6, averaging 33 yards a game during that span. Jones didn't secure any of his three Week 11 targets. ... James Starks (knee, ankle) is a game-time decision, potentially leaving Ryan Grant and John Kuhn to handle backfield duties. Grant has been thoroughly ineffective, failing to score a touchdown all season, managing 120 yards on his last 49 carries (2.45 YPC), and appearing dead legged in the process. If you're desperate to play a Packers running back at Detroit, Kuhn is a better bet to score. Kuhn has three touchdowns in the past month and is a fixture in Green Bay's goal-line packages.

As suspected, Matthew Stafford's four-interception Week 10 game was more attributable to windy Soldier Field than his fractured index finger. Now 25 days removed from the injury -- it occurred at Denver in Week 8 -- Stafford is returning from a five-TD destruction of Carolina. He ranks second to only Rodgers in touchdown passes this season, and among quarterbacks only Rodgers, Cam Newton, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees have scored more fantasy points. Trust Stafford against the Packers' No. 31 pass defense in a likely high-scoring affair. ... Calvin Johnson has scored eight touchdowns in seven career meetings with the Packers, averaging five catches and 75 yards per game. Charles Woodson is typically assigned to Megatron, but it hasn't worked. ... Nate Burleson has been an every-down receiver all season, so there's no great explanation for his dramatic swings in production. Burleson has been hot recently with 15 catches in his last two games. We do know that he plays slot receiver in all three-wide sets, and can eat into Brandon Pettigrew's over-the-middle targets and catches when Burleson's role increases in a given week. Ultimately, Burleson is a roll of the dice as a WR3. ... Titus Young plays in three- and four-receiver packages only. While his big-play ability and this game's scoring projection make him somewhat intriguing, Young will likely need a long bomb to be a worthwhile fantasy start. Working in Young's favor is the fact that Green Bay has allowed the most 20-plus yard completions in the NFC this season.

Green Bay has been generous to tight ends this year, through ten games allowing 49 receptions for 693 yards and five TDs to the position. It's a five-catch, 69-yard weekly average. Pettigrew is a respectable low-end TE1. ... Tony Scheffler is the NFC's Scott Chandler. He's scored five times, but is averaging under 20 yards a game. ... Maurice Morris started against the Panthers and saw the first four carries in the Lions' backfield, gaining two yards. It became apparent early in the second quarter that Kevin Smith would be the better option. Smith broke off gains of 15, 43, and 28 on his initial three touches, finding pay dirt on the third. From the second quarter on, this was Detroit's backfield touch distribution: Smith 19, Morris 4, Keiland Williams 0. Morris and Williams are terrible, so Smith should comfortably be the lead back until Jahvid Best returns. I just wouldn't get overly excited. While Smith hit 10 plays of nine yards or longer against a Carolina defense that was taken apart by Chris Johnson the week before, he showed ordinary run skills and no second gear in the open field. Smith was caught from behind on his 43-yard sprint, and the 28-yard score came on a well-blocked screen pass. In the second half, the Dan Connor-less Panthers turned in a clinic for bad tackling. While sheer opportunity is indispensable in fantasy football, my early prognosis is that Smith's big game was largely the result of his opponent. I personally am starting Smith as an RB2 against the Packers, counting on his excellent passing-game skills to buoy his fantasy stats in down weeks for rushing. I expect plenty of the latter against competent defenses.

Score Prediction: Packers 34, Lions 27

4:15PM ET Game

Miami @ Dallas

On a three-game winning streak, the Dolphins appear to be a much better team than their early-season performance suggested. Just keep in mind that Miami's victories have come against the reeling Chiefs, Redskins, and Bills, who all told have combined to lose 11 games in a row. The Fins haven't faced a good passing offense in nearly a month, a trend that will change at Cowboys Stadium. Tony Romo is the No. 3 fantasy quarterback over the last three weeks, completing 65-of-94 (69.1%) passes for 841 yards (8.95 YPA), eight touchdowns, and no turnovers since Week 8. The Dolphins still rank 25th against the pass despite their easy recent schedule, so this is a favorable matchup. ... Excluding Miles Austin (hamstring, out), here is Romo's target distribution over the past six games: Dez Bryant 44, Jason Witten 39, Laurent Robinson 32, DeMarco Murray 27. ... Bryant has four touchdowns in Austin's four missed games this season and should avoid Dolphins top CB Vontae Davis' coverage for most of this one. Bryant is the Cowboys' split end, playing the majority of his snaps on the left side of the offensive formation. He'll tangle with RCB Sean Smith while Robinson draws Davis. Robinson is more of a low-end WR3 option this week.

Witten is the No. 4 tight end in fantasy football, and only Jimmy Graham has seen more targets at the position. Witten is an every-week fantasy starter. ... Coming off his least productive game since taking over as Dallas' lead back in Week 7, Murray will face a near-impenetrable Miami run defense on three days' rest. In their last six games, the Dolphins have allowed 445 yards on 130 carries (3.42 YPC) to enemy tailbacks, none of whom has scored. His 31 touches compared to Felix Jones' six in Week 11 confirm that Murray will remain the feature back going forward, but he's just an RB2/flex on Thanksgiving. Across the league, only the 49ers are playing tougher run defense than Miami. It doesn't help Murray's cause that he'll be without pile-driving FB Tony Fiammetta (illness) for a second straight game. ... Jones did not bring back kickoffs in his return from a high ankle sprain, and played only 21-of-77 snaps (27.3%) against the Redskins. Murray was in for 54 (70.1%). Until Jones' role increases -- and it may not -- he's a handcuff for Murray.

The Fins can compete in this game if Matt Moore plays as he has in his last three starts. Over that span, Moore is 51-of-72 (70.8%) for 613 yards (8.51 YPA), six touchdowns, and two turnovers. Moore tends to fold when pressured, so it's notable that all six of his TDs have come against the Bills (28th in sacks) and Chiefs (32nd in sacks). Both turnovers were against the Redskins (tied for first in sacks). The Dolphins' ability to contain DeMarcus Ware, or lack thereof, could have a big impact on this game's final score. Moore is a two-quarterback league option. ... Moore's updated target distribution on the season: Brandon Marshall 58, Davone Bess 36, Reggie Bush 23, Brian Hartline 19, Anthony Fasano 17, Charles Clay 14. ... Fantasy owners need to shake off Marshall's one-catch, five-yard Week 11 clunker and start him against the Cowboys. Clay oddly led the Dolphins in receiving last week. Miami jumped out to an early, 21-3 lead and leaned on the running game, as no Fins receiver finished with more than five targets. Marshall will bounce back.

The Week 11 box score once again makes it seem as though the Dolphins' backfield has become an even timeshare. Bush and Daniel Thomas both received 15 carries in Miami's 35-8 throttling of Buffalo. Closer inspection reveals that Bush remains the primary back until games get out of hand. Bush received eight of the backfield's first nine touches, including three in the red zone. He executed off left tackle for a five-yard score on the third. Thomas didn't see significant playing time until the Fins had built a 14-0 lead, and seven of the rookie's carries occurred in second-half blowout mode with Miami up by four touchdowns. Thomas was also buried for a fourth-quarter safety on a simple dive play up the middle. It feels uncomfortable defending Bush because I'm not a long-term believer, but he is a better fantasy option than Thomas for the time being. Keep in mind that Dallas has a top-11 run defense. With ILB Sean Lee (wrist) playing full time again, the Cowboys held Redskins tailbacks to 46 scoreless yards on 19 carries (2.42 YPC) in Week 11.

Score Prediction: Cowboys 24, Dolphins 13

8:20PM ET Game

San Francisco @ Baltimore

In Week 10, playcaller Cam Cameron managed to get Ray Rice the football just 13 times, and the Ravens were promptly dismissed 22-17 by lowly Seattle. In Week 11, Cameron set out to correct the mistake against the Bengals. Each of the Ravens' first five offensive plays were drawn up for Rice, and over the course of the game he paid dividends with 147 total yards and two TDs versus a Cincinnati run defense that entered the contest ranked second in the league. Rice also had an explosive, ankle-breaking 26-yard run called back by penalty. Despite having faced the league's toughest run-defense schedule, Rice is the No. 3 overall back in fantasy football. In five matchups with top-eight run defenses, Rice has racked up six all-purpose touchdowns and 382 yards on 85 carries (4.49 YPC) while averaging 125 total yards per game. San Francisco's top-ranked unit is intimidating at first glance, but Rice has proven time and time again that he is matchup proof. ... After his Week 10 career game, Ed Dickson regressed to the norm with two catches for 21 yards in last Sunday's win over the Bengals. The book on Dickson coming out of Oregon was that he possessed field-stretching skills, but he hasn't shown it in the pros. He's been strictly a post-up target over the middle this season, averaging 9.0 yards per reception and 37.7 yards a game.

Recent stats may not support it because San Francisco has faced a quarterback slate consisting of Colt McCoy, John Beck, and John Skelton over the past month, but pass defense has been the 49ers' weakness throughout the season. While Carlos Rogers has played well at left and slot cornerback, RCB Tarell Brown and rookie nickel/LCB Chris Culliver are unintimidating foes. As Anquan Boldin spends most of Thanksgiving in Rogers' coverage both inside and out, Week 11 breakout star Torrey Smith will have a realistic opportunity to keep rolling against San Francisco's No. 23 pass defense. Creating cavities of separation in last week's win over Cincinnati, Smith turned in a Roddy White-esque performance en route to season highs in receptions (6) and yards (165). Smith profiles similarly to White in that both were typecast as raw, early-career deep threats with the potential for more long term. I've mentioned it in this space before, but Smith's route running appears to have improved tremendously in the past several games. He's getting open to all areas of the field. If you're looking for a high-upside WR3 to play on Turkey Day, Smith would be a better bet than someone like Nate Burleson or James Jones.

Michael Crabtree burned Patrick Peterson relentlessly in Week 11, topping 100 yards for just the third time in 36 career games. In addition to a large cushion from Peterson, Crabtree benefited from Braylon Edwards' reduced role, as the No. 2 receiver's snap rate dropped from 60% in Week 10 to 36%. Even second-year slot receiver Kyle Williams played more snaps than Edwards. Alex Smith is unlikely to have much passing success against Baltimore's top-seven pass defense, but Crabtree will offer the weekly potential for 7-9 targets as long as Edwards' snaps are down. On Thanksgiving, think of Crabtree as a viable, if low-upside WR3. ... Vernon Davis is never a poor bet for a touchdown, but this will be the toughest matchup he's faced all season. Davis threatens to spend much of the game on the line blocking RE Terrell Suggs, and the Ravens have yet to allow a touchdown to a tight end this year. Opposing tight ends have managed just 32 receptions for 351 yards against Baltimore, "good" for a per-game average of 35 yards on three catches.

Since the 49ers' Week 7 bye, Smith is averaging 221.5 yards per game with a 5:2 TD-to-INT ratio. He's locked in as a game manager and would be a poor two-quarterback league play in this tough matchup. ... With MLB Ray Lewis (toe) either out or playing at less than 100 percent, the Ravens' run defense isn't quite as fearsome. They've allowed five rushing touchdowns in their last four games, including two last week to Cedric Benson. While this remains a tough matchup for Frank Gore, he will likely be the focal point for San Francisco's Week 12 game plan. Expect Gore to approach 30 touches as a mid-level RB2. Kendall Hunter will continue in his change-of-pace role.

Score Prediction: Ravens 17, 49ers 13

Gregg Rosenthal takes a look at the key players to start or sit on Thanksgiving.