The Keyhole makes observations about consumers, brands, ads, & marketing, through a predictive customer loyalty lens. Most marketing is ineffective to today's bionic consumer, given undifferentiated products, loss of "brandness," & hard to come by profits. Marketers talk about "engagement" but nobody seems to be doing a very good job measuring or integrating it into what they do & it shows! The Keyhole opens a dialogue on this subject & suggests real-world solutions with the marketing community.

Friday, February 17, 2017

Emotional Engagement and the Academy Awards: Odds of Winning

The concept of emotional engagement is pretty straightforward. Consumers
have an Ideal for every product and service – including entertainment and
experiential events – and, particularly, movies. Ultimately, emotional
engagement is the yardstick consumers use to measure brands and entertainment.
But defining the category's Ideal is where it gets very tricky for one
particular reason.

To do it
accurately it needs below-the-radar psychological metrics because today's
consumer does not behave as he or she says, does not say what he or she really
thinks, and does not think what he or she really feels. So a 10-point scale just
won’t do it anymore! It’s all about emotional engagement, with the emphasis on
“emotional.” Consumers talk to themselves before they talk to brands.
They’re hot-wired to social networking, which generally super-charges
expectations for the category being “shared.” The result? Massive gaps between
what people really want and what brands/entertainment/experiential
events deliver.

The Ideal, of course, is not static. It changes according to
how consumer values for the category change. Or, in the case of movies, the
particular category the movie or actor or actress or director falls into. And
because today it’s all driven (mostly) by emotional values, changes to the
Ideal – and how well something meets that Ideal – are predictive of how
consumers will behave. Or in the case of movies, how they’ll react to them. And
tweet about them and share with friends and family.

So, again this year, as an emotional engagement test
of our own we put this year’s roster of Academy Award-nominated films (and
actors and actresses and directors) to the emotional engagement test. Results
below indicate the degree to which the films (etc.) lived up to the movie-going
public’s Ideal translated into odds. We did pretty well last year, so here are this year’s Academy
Awards engagement odds:

Best Picture

La La Land1/6

Moonlight6/1

Hidden Figures10/1

Manchester By The Sea16/1

Fences50/1

Hacksaw Ridge60/1

Arrival80/1

Lion80/1

Hell or High Water100/1

Best Actor

Casey
Affleck4/9

Denzel
Washington3/2

Ryan
Gosling12/1

Andrew
Garfield30/1

Viggo
Mortensen100/1

Best Actress

Emma
Stone1/6

Natalie
Portman4/1

Ruth
Negga40/1

Meryl
Streep50/1

Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali1/10

Jeff Bridges11/1

Michael Shannon12/1

Lucas Hedges15/1

Dev Patel15/1

Supporting
Actress

Viola Davis1/25

Michelle Williams9/1

Naomie Harris15/1

Nicole Kidman25/1

Octavia Spencer50/1

Best
Director

Damiel Chazelle1/10

Kenneth Lonergan7/1

Barry Jenkins8/1

Denis Villeneuve50/1

To identify the Ideal, Brand Keys uses an
independently validated research approach that fuses (mostly) emotional and rational
aspects of the category, identifies the four behavioral, path-to-purchase
drivers for the category-specific ‘Ideal,’ and identifies the values that form the components of
each driver.

What consumers
expect is expressed as index numbers and is configured versus a category
benchmark of 100. These assessments not only identify the Ideal, but also allow
us to measure the degree to which movies (and actors, actresses, and
directors) meet consumer expectations for the path-to-purchase (or in this
case, the path-to-the-pictures) driver that defines the Ideal – in this case
translated into odds.

The research technique, a combination of psychological
inquiry and higher-order statistical analyses, has a test/re-test reliability
of 0.93, accounts for 96% of the variance in a category, and provides results
generalizable at the 95% confidence level. It has been successfully used in B2B
and B2C categories in 35 countries including motion pictures and award
ceremonies.

Please
note we provide these odds for entertainment value and engagement diagnostics only.
If you’re looking to engage in some moneymaking outcomes, you’re on your own,
although it’s generally a bad idea to bet against emotional engagement in any category because it’s predictive of
how people will behave in the marketplace.

Or in this case, the movie theatre or multiplex.Find out more about what makes customer loyalty happen and how Brand Keys metrics is able to predict future consumer behavior: brandkeys.com. Visit our YouTube channel to learn more about Brand Keys methodology, applications and case studies.

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About Us

Robert Passikoff, founder and president of Brand Keys, is a sought-after speaker and global thought leader on engagement and loyalty. He has pioneered work in these areas, creating the Customer Loyalty Engagement Index and the Sports Fan Loyalty Index. New York University’s communication school has declared Dr. Passikoff “the most-quoted brand consultant in the United States.”