Thursday, October 21, 2010

More Bogus Hurricane Predictions From "Experts" - Is It Time To Hold Experts Criminally Negligent For Promoting Fraudulent Predictions?

After years of prediction failures, the experts powered up their climate models to have another go at. After these models kept predicting more frequent and intense hurricanes due to global warming, the actual results (see more here) were stunningly different than predicted:

The past hurricane predictions of the IPCC "scientists" has been found to be embarrassingly bad - 100% of the IPCC statements were found to be wrong.

Why are experts, climate models and the IPCC always so wrong on hurricane and other tropical storm predictions? Simple. The climate models used are worthless as prediction tools but are true perfection for ego-driven public relations, and the need for raising more research funds.

"Despite warnings by scientists that identifying an actual trend in storm variability is impossible due to a lack of reliable historical data, a new report in Nature Geoscience is being cited as a solid prediction of future trends in tropical cyclone activity. The other thing not mentioned is that this research is based on models of questionable accuracy....In it, the authors warn that there is precious little that can be predicted from past data. But this does not stop them from blithely predicting the future based on new “high-resolution” models."

"Once again, climate scientists are predicting future climate behavior based, not on empirical data, but on computer models. They go on to state that confidence in some of their predictions is low “owing to uncertainties in the large-scale patterns of future tropical climate change, as evident in the lack of agreement between the model projections of patterns of tropical SST changes.”

These researchers know that these widely publicized predictions have a very low probability of being correct, yet they are not held accountable for their demonstrably false proclamations. Does that sound far-fetched? Others are starting to think along the same lines.

Here's our prediction (sans model): at some point, a smart group of lawyers will figure out how to structure a class action lawsuit against the hurricane-clowns and their supporting institutions for the billions wasted, not only on the "models" research, but for all the wasted billions spent by businesses to prepare for non-existent hurricanes. Or, maybe it's possible to do a class-action on the mental anguish and fear caused by these false prophets? Or, maybe it will be a few states' attorney generals that go after the deep endowment/foundation pockets that incentivize bogus/fraudulent research. Certainly the FTC and/or FDA wouldn't allow fraudulent predictions like these to made by corporate concerns on any given number of subjects.

210900Z POSITION NEAR 17.6N 91.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM SOUTH OF
CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE SPIKED FROM PGTW AND KNES
IN RESPONSE TO RAPID CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION OF THIS
CYCLONE. DVORAK ESTIMATES SUPPORT A 45 TO 55 KNOT LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. A 210405Z ASCAT PASS CONFIRMS AT LEAST 40 KNOTS
AT THE SYSTEM CENTER. THERE IS FAIR TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT POSITION AND 12-HOUR MOTION BASED ON A 210039Z TMI AND A
210403Z METOP-A MICROWAVE IMAGE. MODERATE WESTERLIES ON THE POLEWARD
SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE WILL FACILITATE A GENERAL
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK TILL LANDFALL WITH BURMA SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24.
THE CYCLONE WILL INTENSIFY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND TWO WEAK TO MODERATE
OUTFLOW MECHANISMS. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN WALKED SOUTH, CLOSER TO
THE MODEL CONSENSUS, TO ACCOUNT FOR PERSISTENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 12 FEET.

After raking across the Philippines on October 18, 2010, Typhoon Megi re-emerged over the South China Sea and began to intensify again. By the time the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite acquired this image at 1:30 p.m. local time (5:30 UTC) on October 20, 2010, the storm had again reached Category 4 status. The storm is sprawling, covering much of the South China Sea in this image. At the time, Megi had winds of 210 kilometers per hour (115 knots or 130 miles per hour) and was gradually weakening. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast that Typhoon Megi would move ashore over south China late on October 22 or early on October 23.
The large image provided here is the highest-resolution version of the image. The image is available in additional resolutions from the MODIS Rapid Response Team.

The Bay of Bengal is bracing for the next monsoon depression as an existing low-pressure area over East-central Bay became well-marked on Wednesday.

MORE RAINS SEEN

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and other international models are of the view that an incoming western disturbance might ‘gulp' the system in and dump it over Myanmar/Bangladesh. This would likely set off another round of showers over Central India and the West Coast, holding up the withdrawal of southwest monsoon for longer.

An India Meteorological Department (IMD) update on Wednesday and valid until Saturday said that fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over Madhya Maharashtra, Konkan, Goa, Coastal Karnataka, Kerala and Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

Leading international weather models are of the view that conditions for the onset of northeast monsoon may set in over Tamil Nadu coast towards the end of next week (October 25 to 30).

A signature burst in accumulated rainfall amounts has been indicated for Southern and adjoining Interior Tamil Nadu and Kerala during the week.

In fact, the IMD expected fairly widespread rainfall over Peninsular India from Monday onwards. The rains would get a boost as a strong wet phase of the periodical Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave settles over Equatorial Indian Ocean and Extreme South Peninsular India.

This would replace as an equally strong dry MJO phase transits the region towards the east.

The MJO wave travels in the higher levels of the atmosphere periodically and in alternating dry and wet phases with profound influence on weather over ground.

The wet phase of the MJO has been known to set up monsoon onsets, low-pressure areas, depressions and even cyclones.

Models are also indicating that the string of cyclonic disturbances along the Mumbai latitude and the resultant non-seasonal rains would also have migrated to more southerly peninsular latitudes to set the stage for northeast monsoon.

IMD forecasts point to a cyclonic circulation settling in over Southeast Tamil Nadu and adjoining Southwest Bay of Bengal by Monday.

This would be followed by establishment of monsoon easterlies over the next couple of days, which may strengthen in due course and set the stage for the monsoon on retreat or northeast monsoon.

WIDESPREAD RAIN

Meanwhile, fairly widespread rainfall has been reported over South Peninsular India and along the West Coast during the 24 hours ending Wednesday morning.

The rains were scattered over Central India, East Uttar Pradesh and Bihar during this period, an IMD update said.

A satellite cloud imagery showed the presence of convective (rain-causing) clouds over parts of East-central Arabian Sea, East-central and adjoining West-central and Northeast Bay of Bengal and North Tamil Nadu.

Scattered rain or thundershowers are is expected to occur over the Western Himalayan region during Thursday as the western disturbance drifts in. It is expected to increase in intensity thereafter.

Scattered rain or thundershowers are also expected to occur over Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Marathwada, Vidarbha and the Northeastern States.

Scattered rain or thundershowers have been forecast for East Uttar Pradesh and Bihar during next two days and decrease thereafter, the IMD outlook said.