East Africa

East Africa has no continuous long-term stations in
the GISS database.

The following figures show average temperature anomalies for
1880 – 2006 (from the GHCN database) and then superimposed on the IPCC model
plot (from AR4 Fig 9.12) (pink= models with CO2, blue= models without CO2,
black= observed).

Unfortunately there are no long-term temperature stations in
Eastern Africa in the GISS database. Zanzibar displays warming in the 1930’s,
while Dar Es Salaam has the period missing.

Many partial records for the region indicate no distinct
trend.

Mount Kilimanjaro

The disappearing Mount Kilimanjaro glacier has been touted
as an effect of anthropogenic global warming. However, its decline is due to
solar effects and lack of precipitation. In fact the Mount Kilimanjaro glaciers
mainly sublimate directly to the atmosphere, rather than melting into runoff
water. The temperature never gets above freezing, so melting can occur only in
small localizations.

A recent study of Mount Kilimanjaro: “Kilimanjaro Glaciers: Recent Areal Extent
From Satellite Data and New Interpretation of Observed 20th Century Retreat
Rates” by Cullen, Molg, Kaser, Hussein, Steffen, and Hardy (Tropical
Glaciology Group, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of
Innsbruck, Austria; Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental
Sciences, University of Colorado, and Climate System Research Center,
Department of Geosciences, University of Massachusetts) (Geophysical Research
Letters, 2006) states: “All ice
bodies on Kilimanjaro have retreated drastically between 1912–2003. Despite
air temperatures always being below freezing, areal retreat of plateau
glaciers is governed mostly by solar radiation induced melt on vertical walls
that characterize their north and south margins [Mölg et al., 2003]. Though
the processes responsible for the formation of the vertical walls is still not
well understood, once established, the vertical wall retreat is irreversible,
and no change in 20th century climate appears to have significantly altered
their ongoing demise. ... Rather than changes in 20th century climate being
responsible for their demise, glaciers on Kilimanjaro appear to be remnants of
a past climate that was once able to sustain them. Hastenrath [2001, 2006]
suggests an increase in net shortwave radiation, accompanied by a decrease in
cloudiness and precipitation, initiated the retreat of the glaciers during the
last two decades of the 19th century. This is supported by a recent finding
that a higher frequency of climatically significant Indian Ocean Zonal Mode
events in the 19th century (1820–1880) may have provided a mechanism to
contribute to a wetter climate in East Africa, and thus stable glaciers.“

In
another paper “Modern Glacier Retreat on Kilimanjaro as Evidence of Climate
Change: Observations and Facts” by Kaser, Hardy, Molg, Bradley and Hyera
(Tropical Glaciology Group, Department of Geography, University of Innsbruck,
Austria, Climate System Research Center, Department of Geosciences, University
of Massachusetts, and Tanzania Meteorological Agency) (International Journal of
Climatology, 2004) [http://www.geo.umass.edu/faculty/bradley/kaser2004.pdf]
the researchers state: “From a hydrological point of view, meltwater from Kibo’s glaciers
has been of littleimportance to the
lowlands in modern times… Most glacier ablation is due to sublimation, and
where ice does melt it immediately evaporates into the atmosphere… The scenario
presented offers a concept that implies climatological processes other than
increased air temperature govern glacier retreat on Kilimanjaro in a direct
manner. However, it does not rule out that these processes may be linked to
temperature variations in other tropical regions.” The following
figure is from this paper, showing the decrease in glacier extents going back
at least as far as the late 1800s.

An article in the American Scientist (“The Shrinking
Glaciers of Kilimanjaro: Can Global Warming Be Blamed” by Philip Mote and Georg
Kaser, July-August 2007) blames a decrease in precipitation and an increase in
sublimation. The following figure shows the temperature trend for 1958 – 2006
for the Kilimanjaro summit altitude from “reanalysis” of weather-balloon
readings. The authors describe the physical features of the glaciers
(penitents, vertical walls, etc.) indicating that melting is not causing the
disappearance.

The following figure shows the extensive deforestation
around Mt Kilimanjaro. Given that “an estimated 62 percent of precipitation occurs over land as
a result of evapotranspiration from lakes and wetlands and dense vegetation,
particularly forests, which pump ground water into the sky.”[http://www.irinnews.org/report.aspx?reportid=61528] the extensive
deforestation will have a significant impact on precipitation.

Lake Victoria

A
recent South African technical paper by a Professor Emeritus of the
Department of Civil and Biosystems Engineering of the University of Pretoria,
and other engineers (“Linkages Between Solar Activity, Climate Predictability and Water
Resource Development” by W J R Alexander, F Bailey, D B Bredenkamp, A van
der Merwe and N Willemse Journal of the South African Institution of Civil
Engineering, Vol. 49 No 2, June 2007) provides evidence of the relationship between
solar activity and hydrological events[http://nzclimatescience.net/images/PDFs/alexander2707.pdf]. The following figure is from their
paper, showing the correlation between sunspot number and lake level for Lake
Victoria in East Africa. This link between sunspot cycle and climate has
been confirmed bya new study showing
that sunspot cycles can be used to predict heavy rains, flooding and subsequent
disease outbreaks in East Africa.[http://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=109789].

Much
of the media hype says that Africa will suffer from global warming (see: www.appinsys.com/GlobalWarming/ReutersAfrica.htm).
However, the World Bank World Development Report “Agriculture for Development”
2008 [www.worldbank.org/WDR2008]
states: “Sub-Saharan
African countries account for 89
percent of the rural population in agriculture-based countries … real
agricultural GDP growth in Sub-Saharan Africa has accelerated from 2.3 percent
per year in the 1980s, to 3.3 percent in the 1990s, and to 3.8 percent per year
between 2000 and 2005. Rural poverty has started to decline in 10 of 13
countries analyzed over the 1990–2005 period.”