Lukashenko's presidency

The trouble has come unexpectedly. A 23- story apartment building collapsed in Pyongyang, the North Korean capital, on May 13. Hundreds of people died. Pyongyang residents were so much shocked that the authorities have recognized all the possible violations of construction rules and asked a pardon from the citizens. By the way, this is not the first accident at North Korean construction sites, where the builders are working for nominal wages and demonstrate the wonders of productivity. It is worth recalling that the Palace of Independence in the Minsk centre was also built by these hard workers.

On May 9 the Belarusian president, after returning from an informal meeting of the presidents, confirmed that he would sign the Treaty establishing the Eurasian Economic Union on behalf of the Republic of Belarus on May 29. “We are not going to block the signing of this treaty. If we cannot make a leap forward, we should move on in small steps. We believe in it”. So, the agreement on the establishment of the Eurasian Economic Union will be signed on May 29, 2014.

Meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council, which was held in Minsk on April 29, was a kind of test in anticipation of the announced signing of the agreement on the establishment of the Eurasian Economic Community (EAEC) in Astana at the end of May 2014. However, this test showed that the partners on Eurasian integration had fundamental differences. It is obvious that the parties have different views on the future of the Eurasian Economic Union.

Last Friday, April 25, in the run - up to the next anniversary of the Chernobyl disaster, the Belarusian president, speaking to the residents of the Mogilev region, wished Ukrainians to «survive the presidential election they schedule on May 25». At the same time he noted foreign policy pressure on the official Kiev. Such statements of the Belarusian president mean that the difference in the estimates of the Ukrainian crisis between Moscow and Minsk continues to grow rapidly, especially if we take into account that Russia does not recognize May 25 elections.

The fact of holding four-party talks in Geneva (17 April 2014), which lasted more than 7 hours, became the major result of these talks. On the last night before the meeting in Switzerland residents of the city of Mariupol expected that the Ukrainian army would attack SBU building, which was occupied by the supporters of Donetsk People's Republic. Possible attack with mass casualties would exclude the appearance of Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia at the negotiating table in Geneva. As a result an attack did not happen...

The political situation in Ukraine continues to have a direct impact on its neighbors. Ukrainian theme remains the main in Russian media space. It’s not a secret that on the background of almost monolithic support of Kremlin's policy in relation to the Crimea by Russian population, we see a split in Russian political class and civil society. Considerable part of the Russian creative intelligentsia, including entertainers, supported Kiev.

On March 27, 2014 the United Nations General Assembly overwhelmingly adopted a resolution declaring Crimea’s referendum on independence illegal. Ten countries, including Armenia, Bolivia, Cuba, North Korea, Nicaragua, Sudan, Syria, Venezuela, Zimbabwe and Belarus, supported Russia. Today it is the first official, albeit indirectly (through a vote in the United Nations) recognition of Crimea’s referendum by the official Minsk. At the same time, the government of Belarus did not make a public statement on recognition of the referendum.

The official Kiev is increasingly beginning to resemble a small political Vesuvius starting from March 18... Emotional reaction of the Ukrainian leadership regarding the fact of the Crimea accession to Russia did not cause serious concern in the Russian political class. Moreover, a hurricane of threats and calls that hit Moscow from the Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine's National Security Council and the Government, was considered even with some sympathy, as this demonstrated that Kiev could not introduce any serious sanctions against Russia without the support of the EU and U.S.

«Crimean crisis», that was the center of the steadily escalating Russian - Ukrainian conflict and at the same time a reason for a more global geopolitical confrontation, could take one of the next «points of no return» in the next 48 hours.

«Local specificity» of the crisis is gradually replacing by geopolitics. At a certain stage it became clear that the fate of the population of the Crimea and Ukraine is secondary for both the West and the East (to some extent). The problem of preserving geopolitical influence of separate states of the world comes to the fore. It is clear that Russia has made an application for its own zone of absolute dominance and would not make a concession on the issue of the Crimea and its role in the political processes in Ukraine. In its turn, Ukraine's status of the EU protectorate after February 21 was marked by a wave of regional separatism and perspective of loss of its southern region.

Information war between Russia and Ukraine is developing into more and more fantastic forms. Information events, created by both sides during the escalation of the conflict, are becoming more acute and short-lived. For example, on March 7 the Ukrainian and then the Belarusian opposition media paraphrased the words of the Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to the United Nations V. Churkin that Russia broke off diplomatic relations with Ukraine. Journalists were not confused by the fact that such a decision would be announced to the world at least by the Russian Foreign Minister.