Adventures of a man, his wife, and a Giant Baby! in modern Scotland. Occasional ninja, pirates and squirrels.

Friday, June 09, 2017

Covfefe and Mugwumps

Politics, eh? Bloody hell!

I stayed up last night to watch the exit poll, had a good laugh, and then went to bed. Then I got up bright and early, discovered that the exit poll was pretty much spot on, had another good laugh, and came to work.

It really is a mess.

As far as I can tell, what will happen now is that the Tories will activate their traditional alliance with the DUP, and thus form a minority government. It's very likely that Theresa May will be ousted (she's said she has no intention of resigning because the country needs strong and stable leadership... which probably means she'll resign within the hour).

But the big wrinkle in that is English Votes for English Laws - 13 of the Tories' MPs are from Scotland, and the 10 from the DUP are of course from Northern Ireland, and so won't be able to vote on large chunks of the government's programme. So it's even more of a mess than it might already appear. (Of course, they could undo EVEL just as easily as they brought it in - it's just a statuatory instrument rather than a law, so easy to remove.)

Edit: Having checked the result in more detail, the Tories have a fairly large majority in England, so EVEL is less of a wrinkle than I'd originally thought. But I was right about the alliance with the DUP.

My strong suspicion, though, is that we're heading for another election in the short term, because this isn't a workable outcome. Unless Tim Farron can be persuaded to throw his Lib Dems under the bus again... and surely to goodness he's learned the folly of that course?

(As regards Jeremy Corbyn: he did well, and a lot better than expected. He's almost certainly safe from any challenges now. Unfortunately, though, my feeling is that he's probably done as well as it is possible for him to do, and I'm not at all sure that a solid second is really worth anything in a winner-takes-all contest.)

In Scotland, I'm fairly horrified by the result. I'm not shocked, or particularly bothered that the SNP lost a significant number of seats, or that the Labour party or the Lib Dems have come back. But I'm horrified that there are now 13 Tory MPs for Scotland - that means either that a lot of people looked at the rape clause, food banks, a hard Brexit, and the proposed bonfire of human rights and thought to themselves, "I've got to get me some of this!", or is means that they were so determined to get rid of the SNP that they were willing to burn the country down to get it. I'm really not sure which possibility is worse. But what is true is that those 13 Tory MPs are the difference between a Tory minority government and a Labour one, so if it was Unionist tactical voting that's caused it then those otherwise-Labour voters get the great pleasure of having just lost their party the election.

(Also, I suspect this result means a stay of execution for Kezia Dugdale. And while I can't say that the likely successor, Anas Sarwar, fills me with any confidence, neither does Kezia.)

In terms of the independence question, there's now no good way forward. The Scottish Parliament has already passed the legislation asking for a second referendum, so either Nicola Sturgeon has to go ahead with this or she has to go back to parliament to call it off. But I can't now see a push for independence succeeding, while if she calls it off then the media will never let her hear the end of it. Disaster either way.

Finally, I would like to congratulate the big winner from last night. Once the dust settles, it's extremely likely that we'll have a new Prime Minister, someone who a little while ago looked dead in the water, with no hope of getting the big job but who, against all the odds is now the favourite.

I refer, of course, to Boris Johnson. Somehow, it seems fitting that in a contest between the accidental King and the tyrant Queen, the big winner turns out to be the Joker.