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Jersey City will overtake Newark population by 2016, Mayor Fulop claims

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Skylines of Newark, left, and Jersey City, right are shown here. Mayor Steven Fulop said emphatically in his State of the City address last Thursday that Jersey City will be the largest city in New Jersey by the end of 2016.
(File photos )

A Star-Ledger analysis of housing starts, Census data and independent projections indicate Jersey City could indeed overtake Newark as the state’s largest city — but not until roughly 2035.

But that’s not stopping Fulop from touting his city’s growth.

In January, the Jersey City Economic Development Corp. issued a request for proposals to marketing firms to spread the word about Jersey City as a destination for business, families and young professionals.

"Jersey City will surpass Newark and become the largest city in New Jersey by the end of 2016," the request read.

Fulop said increased development and healthy demand will put his city over the top in no time.

"I think that as New York City — Manhattan — has become less affordable, people look for alternatives," Fulop said in an interview. "We’re situated in a sweet spot. We have 5,600 units under construction — more than any other city in the state — and another 7,000 on deck next year."

Forecasters who track population changes say Jersey City has a ways to go.

For one thing, Newark also has a lot of housing coming online in the next two years.

Construction at the Teachers’ Village on Halsey Street, the New Jersey Performing Arts Center, the landmark Hahne’s building and a new downtown development, Four Corners, will yield roughly 1,200 units, according to city estimates.

Newark is also adding jobs as firms like Panasonic and Prudential expand their footprints.

"We all have our forecasts," said Bob Diogo a demographer from the North Jersey Transportation Planning Authority, a government agency that tracks and forecasts population for 13 northern counties. "I’m not sure how aware (Fulop) is of Newark and their plans as well."

According to U.S. Census figures, Newark saw its first population gain in decades in 2010. The city’s population was 277,140, up about 3,600 from 2000. Jersey City, which has seen a steady population increase since 1980, added roughly 7,500 people between 2000 and 2010, bringing its population to 247,597.

So while Newark is growing, Jersey City is growing faster.

Fulop said there are several reasons for that.

For one thing, there’s significant New York City spillover. Jersey City, sometimes called "the sixth borough," has long been a cheaper alternative for young artists and professionals priced out by exorbitant rents in Manhattan and Brooklyn.

The commute from downtown Jersey City to Midtown is generally less than 20 minutes.

Newark, though, has some of the state’s most prestigious cultural and educational institutions, including the Newark Museum, New Jersey Performing Arts Center and the Prudential Arena, along with Rutgers University, Seton Hall Law School and the New Jersey Institute of Technology.

Newark also has Penn Station, an airport and three major highways.

Unfortunately, it also has serious crime and poverty. Newark had 111 homicides in 2013. In comparison, Fulop said there were 19 in Jersey City.

"We had a particularly bad year," he said.

There are significant demographic differences as well, according to Census data.

Only 12.5 percent of Newark residents have a college or advanced degree compared with 41.5 percent in Jersey City. Roughly 52 percent of Jersey City residents speak a language other than English at home, compared with 45 percent in Newark. The median household income in Jersey City is $58,000. In Newark, it’s $34,000.

The data indicate that despite Jersey City’s higher growth rate, Newark will continue to stay ahead of its neighbor for some time.

"The household sizes in Jersey City tend to be smaller," Diogo said.

"A lot of apartment complexes are going up. They’re attracting a lot more singles and couples. Newark has a lot more families. We haven’t forecast a change in that."

Newark also has a lot more room — roughly 24 square miles to Jersey City’s 14.7.

According to North Jersey Transportation Planning Authority forecasts, by 2020 Newark will have about 303,000 residents to Jersey City’s 280,000.

Newark City Hall also cited data from ESRI, a geographic information software company that tracks population. According to those statistics, by 2018, Newark will have 278,436 residents. Jersey City will have just over 266,000 people, the firm predicts. Current estimates from the planning authority show Jersey City surpassing Newark in 2035, when it will reach 334,768 residents and Newark will have 334,232.

Still, while more federal dollars go to places with higher populations, experts say there is no empirical advantage to being the biggest city in the state.

"In reality, is it going to have any effect on location decisions? I don’t think that’s going to have an impact," said James Hughes, dean of the Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy at Rutgers University.