The Top 50 Fantasy Prospects

Midseason Update

the archives are now free.

All Baseball Prospectus Premium and Fantasy articles more than a year old are now free as a thank you to the entire Internet for making our work possible.

Not a subscriber? Get exclusive content like this delivered hot to your inbox every weekday. Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get instant access to the best baseball content on the web.

What can three months teach us about the landscape of talent in the minor leagues? Most of the time, that short span teaches us not to overrate three months of performance. For example, if you had jumped off the Shelby Miller bandwagon at midseason last year, when he had an ERA of around 6.00 in the Pacific Coast League, you probably had a tough time squeezing back onto it when he turned things around. Then again, this isn’t specific to just three months worth of performance—the top of prospect lists are littered with players who had down years and were soured on. Eric Hosmer had a terrible 2009 campaign in Low-A before reestablishing himself as a stud the following season. Wil Myers had an extremely disappointing 2011 season, which caused his prospect star to dim.

And that’s without even getting into the players whose promise wanes without any good reason other than time. As we’ve become more aware of the minor leagues in general, the concept of “prospect fatigue” has taken center stage—and it’s only gotten worse with Mike Trout and Bryce Harper exploding into our consciousness at such a young age. It’s simple: The longer a player remains on the prospect scene, the easier it is to gloss over his talent. You don’t just see this with post-hype prospects like Domonic Brown, Julio Teheran, and Martin Perez (all top-10 talents at one point), but you see it with current members of this list. It’s starting to happen to Billy Hamilton and Jonathan Singleton. The climb for prospects is never one that is straight uphill—and just because a certain player’s stock is down from a fantasy standpoint, that doesn’t mean that the “next big thing” has more value.

First, there are a few disclaimers specific to the prospect list to go over before we jump in. Again, these rankings are for fantasy purposes only and do not directly take into account things like an outfielder’s ability to stick in center or a catcher’s pop time. Of course, these things do matter indirectly, as they affect a player’s ability to either stay in the lineup or maintain eligibility. So, while Austin Hedges may be a top-20 prospect on BP’s Top 101, this is due in large part to his defensive value, and you’ll see that he’s not on this list because his upside isn’t nearly as great for fantasy. They are also measured for a reasonably deep mixed league (15-16 teams) with standard rotisserie settings. That means if you’re in a 10-team league, the big risk/reward prospects should get a bump in value—with the safer prospects getting more of a bump in a single-league or 20-team mixed format.

Additionally, home parks need to be factored in, just as they are when we discuss the fantasy merits of major-league players. Since A.J. Burnett’s fantasy potential increased greatly when he went from New York to Pittsburgh, we can’t pretend that these prospects operate in a vacuum, unaffected by park factors. Of course, there’s no guarantee that they will reach the majors with their current organizations, so although present teams are reflected in the rankings, they are not a heavy consideration. Most importantly, the intention of this list is to balance the upside, probability, and proximity of these players to an active fantasy lineup.

Finally, with the ambiguity of mid-season eligibility hanging over our heads, I decided to remove all players who are currently in their future roles at the major-league level. That means no Gerrit Cole, Zack Wheeler, or Wil Myers, even though they all still technically have prospect eligibility. I also did not rank players like Tyler Skaggs or Trevor Bauer, who, despite still having eligibility, are more known commodities at the major-league level. And finally, I am only including 2013 draft picks that have officially signed, which is why Kris Bryant isn’t on the list. If he had signed, he’d be right inside the back end of the top-20.

Within the list below, in addition to the write-ups, you’ll find important information about each prospect, including his potential fantasy value (in dollars) at his peak and the risk factor associated with his reaching that peak. Also, you will find a fantasy overview, which summarizes how many categories each player will be useful in, along with any fantasy that carry impact potential. For this exercise, we defined “impact” as having the potential to be in the top 15 to 20 players in a given category. For instance, hitters with 30-homer potential are considered “impact” performers in that department, while pitchers can earn the strikeout distinction by flashing the stuff necessary to whiff 200 batters in a season. And finally, you’ll see a quick summary of what’s changed since the pre-season Top 100 list was put out in early March.

So without any further ado, here are your top 50 fantasy prospects, as of the halfway mark of the 2013 season:

What has changed: Not much. Taveras is still the best hitter in the minor leagues, despite missing time this season with a lingering ankle injury. And don’t lose sight of the fact that he just turned 21 years old in late June.

What has changed: He’s getting closer. And for those of you who were worried about his 21-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in a small Double-A sample last year (even though I told you not to be), he’s at 68-to-47 across both levels of the upper minors this season. And he’s even thrown in a career-high seven steals.

What has changed: Everything. Buxton has exploded into everyone’s consciousness this year, and has the highest upside of any player on this list. And when I say upside, I mean that he has the tools to match the stat line of Mike Trout’s 2012 season. His risk factor has also decreased, as he’s nowhere near as raw as he was advertised to be coming out of the draft.

What has changed: You may notice that the “OF” dropped off his headline, which is potentially the biggest boon to his fantasy value. The reports have shifted from Sano being a liability at the hot corner to a potential above-average defender. If he sticks at third base, which seems likely at this point, his still-insane power will be much more valuable.

What has changed: The risk. Stealing 80 bases again in the minors is great and all, but when it comes with an on-base percentage around .300 in Triple-A, some chinks in the armor start to show. He can still be plenty valuable as a bottom-of-the-order speedster, but that’s not what we were hoping for coming into the year. There’s still plenty of time for him to turn this around though, so let’s not rush to label him a faster Dee Gordon.

What has changed: Absolutely nothing. Baez is still showing off all of the tools you would want for fantasy purposes, and he’s still showing the same plate-discipline issues that have followed him around since being drafted. His big test will come in Double-A, where he was promoted last week. The upside here is second only to Buxton’s.

What has changed: An improvement in control has moved Bradley up to top-pitching-prospect-in-the -game territory, and it’s been staggering enough that he may even see major-league time before the end of this season. He’s been nothing short of dominant all season long.

What has changed: The tools translated into performance for Walker in his return trip to Double-A, and he’s carried it with him into Triple-A as well. And while it may feel like he’s been around for a while now, Walker is actually a few days younger than Archie Bradley.

What has changed: A lowered risk factor. Despite missing most of June with an abdominal injury, Yelich has built off his strong spring and more than held his own in Double-A. And don’t let the middling batting average fool you; Yelich still has one of the strongest hit tools in the minor leagues.

What has changed: He’s no one-year wonder. There’s always a risk with guys who have surprisingly strong full-season debuts, but Polanco has followed it up by being even better across High-A and Double-A. He could be a slightly-more-valuable version of his future teammate and outfield partner, Starling Marte.

What has changed: He’s more than living up to expectations, but he has been overshadowed by the Buxton Show. Last time I checked, an 18-year old shortstop with a .325/.416/.460 line in full-season ball is worthy of running up prospect lists, both fantasy and otherwise.

What has changed: Just because Bradley has jumped ahead of him in the rankings doesn’t make what Taillon is doing this season any less impressive. He should still take his rightful place as the number two in the Pirates rotation behind Gerrit Cole in relatively short order.

What has changed: A lot. The concern coming into the season was that the high-octane offensive environment of Lancaster heavily influenced his numbers, but Springer is showing that he can hit plenty outside of the California League. He boasts one of the best power/speed combos in the minor leagues.

What has changed: After a bit of a slow start at Triple-A, Castellanos just continues to hit. In fact, in the month of June, he hit .361/.441/.583 with five homers, 16 walks, and only 13 strikeouts. Those plate-discipline numbers are a big deal for someone who had 76 strikeouts to 14 walks in 79 games at Double-A in 2012. But his move from third base to the outfield does lower his value slightly.

What has changed: The hype from spring training turned out to be fully warranted, as Gausman earned a call up before Memorial Day. And he’s pitched much better in the majors than his 5.97 ERA would indicate; he also has a 3.7 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a 3.61 xFIP.

What has changed: The likelihood of Martinez getting a real shot as a starter at the major-league level has increased, though his value remains buoyed by the fact that he could fail at that and still become an elite-level closer.

What has changed: After an aggressive assignment to High-A, Russell struggled out of the gate. But he’s really turned it on over the last two months; since he took a trip to Lancaster on May 10, he’s hitting .304/.357/.569 with eight homers and nine steals in just 48 games. Yes, it is the Cal League, but Russell had also just finished high school at this time last year.

What has changed: Nothing. In a small sample since getting back up to Triple-A after his 50-game drug suspension (not the performance-enhancing type, unless you’re talking about downing tacos), Singleton has struggled. But all this is doing is pushing back his debut date—he still projects to be a very solid corner bat for fantasy.

What has changed: He’s putting it all together. Not that his 2012 campaign wasn’t impressive, but he didn’t need much more than his 70-grade fastball to navigate the Midwest League. The fact that he’s been better this year shows you where he’s going. He remains a dark-horse candidate to be the best pitching prospect in the game at season’s end.

What has changed: The surgery. But don’t freak out—even if Bundy is not back in the majors until the first half of 2015, he’ll still only be 22 years old. That’s how far ahead of the curve he was prior to going under the knife. Dealing Bundy for 60 cents on the dollar will likely come back to bite you. With force.

What has changed: Very little, but it hasn’t been positive. He hasn’t shaken his reputation as injury-prone, mostly because he’s missed nearly the entire season due to a fracture in his left foot. But the potential is still there for d’Arnaud to be an upper level fantasy backstop, in the mold of Brian McCann.

What has changed: Nothing. Fried still has loads of fantasy potential in that left arm of his, and despite not putting up gaudy numbers in the Midwest League, he is still my pick to be the top fantasy pitching prospect in the game after the 2014 season.

What has changed: He got drafted. Frazier has the most fantasy upside of anyone in the 2013 draft, and while this is an aggressive ranking, his bat speed alone nearly warrants it. And the impact potential above may underrate his ability to add value on the base paths.

What has changed: Higher likelihood of positional eligibility. While Sanchez’s defense is still questionable, we don’t really care if he’s any good behind the plate for fantasy purposes, we just care that he’s there. He’s still a compressed version of Jesus Montero: less bat, more defense.

What has changed: He got drafted. Again. Appel does a lot of things well, but I don’t think the package comes together to form a frontline fantasy pitcher. Then again, it’s not like we’re talking about another Luke Hochevar here.

Other readers have rated this comment below the viewing threshold. Click here to view anyway.

Ownership under 20%, still in the minors- where die Erasmo go? Maybe I'm missing him somewhere.
Love these lists Bret, but it seems you've changed your thinking a bit on this one, no longer giving more weight to the guys who might be called up sooner. I mean some of these guys sound like they'll be great, but even in a 5 or 6 keeper league I couldn't hold on to someone who hasn't even had his first MLB game by the end of this season. In which case, what use would someone like Buxton be to me? Follow?

Thanks for the list. A few surprises for me are the inclusions of Gallo and Starling. Very few prospects with their hitting issues ever make it, and even if they do, there is a question about if they make enough contact to stick. Gallo has 135Ks in 80-odd games at low-A - that's pretty horrific really.

Also wondered why Liriano had jumped so much despite not playing. It seems odd when others like Dahl were pretty static.

They're both showing off the swing and miss in their game a plenty, but for fantasy, you can't ignore the upside, even if the risk is extreme. Like I say with these extreme risk guys, they're worth owning until they're not, and these two are definitely worth owning.

As far as Liriano, I'll be honest--I wanted to put him much higher on the pre-season list, but it was a collaboration. This is a better reflection of where I personally see his value sitting.

Great prospect, and he would have made the list had it gone to 60, but he's just so far away and his fantasy upside is still up in the air. He has the potential to be a fast riser and a special player, but he may be a more valuable real-life guy than fantasy guy

Would like to know the reasoning behind Springer's ETA being 2014. I look at Springer's compelling AAA stats, albeit a small sample, and believe that the drums must be beating loud in Houston for his immediate promotion.

I just don't see a great reason to rush him in Houston. He may very well get the call, which is why he's a recurring name on The Stash List, but I think the odds of him finishing the season with Triple-A is higher at this point.

The most glaring omission, in my opinion, both here and at BA. I'm fairly certain he's being dinged because of Biogenesis, because on performance alone, he's an easy Top 50 guy.
I find it interesting, because most BB writers go out of their way to defend Ryan Braun, but a prospect's name appears on a list and its "guilty as charged." I don't understand the dichotomy.

His absence from this list has absolutely nothing to do with the Biogenesis link. He's back on the radar, but I am not sold on either his hit tool or his power. There's no shame in ranking behind the outfielders towards the bottom of this list, and he would have made a top-75.

What about Jackie Bradley? I know he was listed at #80 in the preseason, while he didn't impress in his first stint at Boston, he looked better in his short 2nd go-around. He seems like a high floor/ low ceiling guy.

Jackie Bradley is more of a real life talent then a go fantasy guy, he's high on prospect lists because of his defense and glove, not because he's a real great hitter. And that was pretty noticeable in his cup of coffee with the big club

Brett, are these ranking geared for Rotisserie leagues, Head to Head leagues, or both? I think the type of league affects Hamilton's value (i.e. I think his potential base stealing dominance matters more in Rotisserie scoring).

I was surprised to not see Wilmer Flores' name in the group. He's the same 21 yrs old as Taveras and his AAA stats (yes, he plays half his games in hitter haven Las Vegas) are every bit as good as your #1 guy.
Not saying that Wilmer should even make your list in the top 20 but not in the top 50? Hmmmm.

I doubt very highly that Wilmer Flores would make a top 100 list, let alone a top 50. Generally excels only when he repeats a level, doesn't look like he's going to post the roto-friendly stats like SB and HR ... I just don't see it.

Not yet. He's repeating the level and has defensive question marks. He's almost certainly a top 100 guy for fantasy purposes now, but I'm not jumping in head first on him. I need to see more before making him a top 50 guy.