Double Dip Recession?

By Jill Schlesinger

November 23, 2009 / 8:22 AM
/ CBS News

This post by Jill Schlesinger originally appeared on CBS' MoneyWatch.com.I always get nervous when three or more people who don't study the economy or financial markets say exactly the same thing. This past weekend, it was a teacher, a lawyer and a doctor, all of whom proclaimed: "we're definitely headed for a double-dip recession!"

(AP)

Every time someone says "double dip" I can't help think of a soft serve ice cream cone plunging into that delicious chocolate coating not once, but twice. That said, are fears of a double dip warranted?

One would have to be brain-dead to not consider the possibility of something bad - really bad, derailing the progress that has occurred since the beginning of this fiasco. Here's a just a few ideas to get you started: a commercial real estate collapse could make the residential market look like a walk in the park; unemployment could get much worse; a large multi-national bank bites the bullet; the Fed blows it; and the weekend favorite, this whole recovery is in your head.

Still, when lots of different kinds of people are talking about double-dips, or bubbles for that matter, those events don't usually occur. It's actually the opposite - when these same people are saying "it's different this time," or "we now understand how to better manage risk," or my favorite, "Jill, you're just too much of a bear to see the opportunity," that's when I start to really worry.

There are lots of reasons to expect that we're entering a slow growth economic phase, but I'm waiting for my three pals to tell me that the risk of double dip is nowhere on the horizon before I fully buy into the concept.

Jill Schlesinger is the Editor-at-Large for CBS MoneyWatch.com. Prior to the launch of MoneyWatch, she was the Chief Investment Officer for an independent investment advisory firm. In her infancy, she was an options trader on the Commodities Exchange of New York.

View all articles by Jill Schlesinger on CBS MoneyWatch »Jill Schlesinger, CFP®, is the Emmy-nominated, Business Analyst for CBS News. She covers the economy, markets, investing and anything else with a dollar sign on TV, radio (including her nationally syndicated radio show), the web and her blog, "Jill on Money." Prior to her second career at CBS, Jill spent 14 years as the co-owner and Chief Investment Officer for an independent investment advisory firm. She began her career as a self-employed options trader on the Commodities Exchange of New York, following her graduation from Brown University.