A critical look at the anthropogenic global warming conjecture

If we are to test a scientific conjecture by its predictions, how damming should it be to the hypothesis of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) to discover that Arctic sea levels have been falling, not rising, by about 2mm per year over the last decade?

Well in fact that is exactly what has been happening if we are to believe the data from the European Space Agency’s (ESA) ERS-2 satellite. There is a BBC report on the findings here.

Of course against this we have to consider that the satellite measurement of sea level is extremely tricky. Also it may well be that a sea level fall in the Arctic is “just” a local phenomenon. Elsewhere sea levels may be rising – and indeed a collation of satellite measurements is thought to indicate a global rise of 3.2mm per year from 1992 to 2006.

But then the forecasts for rising sea levels are so apocalyptic they seem to leave little room for falling levels anywhere! For example, writing in Science Express (December 2006) Dr Stephen Rahmstorf from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research is predicting a sea level rise of between 0.5 to 1.4 metres above 1990 levels by 2100.

Well it seems to me that taken overall the measured rate is lagging significantly behind this predicted rate. And in the Arctic the Gods of the sea level just don’t seem to be playing ball and would appear to be completely deaf to the AGW agenda!