New York Fed Survey Provides Insight into Americans’ Views on Economic Issues

“The Federal Reserve Bank of New York today launched its monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE), which contains insight into Americans’ views on inflation, prices, the labor market and household finances. The just released survey for December 2013 shows that consumer expectations for overall inflation and home prices remained stable in recent months. Median earnings and household income growth expectations have remained steady and perceptions of credit access have improved slightly. A series of interactive charts depicting survey results is available in the Center for Microeconomic Data on the New York Fed’s website. Other findings from the survey include:

Inflation

Expectations of overall inflation have remained stable in recent months, at both the short and medium term horizon. The median expected year-ahead rate of inflation was 3.1 percent in December

Uncertainty about future inflation has been stable at both horizons over the past few months

The median expected rate of house price growth was 3.9 percent in December, with little change in uncertainty

Expectations for gas prices in December were at the low end of the recent range in median expected changes, while those for medical care increased somewhat in the last two months

Labor Market

Consumers expect a 22 percent mean probability of leaving a job voluntarily and a 17 percent probability of losing a job over the next 12 months

The mean probability of finding a job in three months, if one were to lose their job today, remained steady at 46 percent

Expectations of changing a primary residence in the next year have remained flat at around 20 percent

Household Finance

Household income growth expectations have remained flat at around 2 percent. Expectations for household spending growth have also been steady, varying between 4.7 percent and 5 percent.”

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