Statistical analysis: 49ers not a leading contender, will win only seven games

The 49ers won’t come close to matching last season’s 13-3 run and will win only seven games, according to statistical analysis by Football Outsiders.

In a video (above) explaining this projection of the 49ers’ crash back to Earth, Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders raises valid points about why last season’s success will be so hard to duplicate. Chief among them: a lack of injuries, especially on defense.

Allow me to expand on the injury note: The 49ers had a league-low two players go on injured reserve once the regular season started, those being wide receiver Joshua Morgan (leg) and defensive tackle Will Tukuafu (wrist). That is a stark contrast to others such as the Jaguars (28 on IR last year; 20 once the season began), the Bills (21, 15), the Rams (20, 15), the Seahawks (16, 13) and the Panthers (19, 11).

Football Outsiders also relied on historical perspectives in terms of the 49ers’ statistics and those of other clubs who’ve made similar leaps. Watch the video to hear some of their data analysis.

On the flip side, MGM’s sportsbooks in Las Vegas have installed the 49ers as 4-to-1 favorites to win Super Bowl XLVII in New Orleans.

Even Football Outsiders acknowledged that the 49ers have a lot working in their favor: a still sub-par NFC West, coach Jim Harbaugh’s track record of improving each season as a collegiate coach, and a roster that returns almost all key players from last season plus a few potentially helpful additions.

“There are a lot of reasons to like the 49ers,” Football Outsiders’ Aaron Schatz says in his video. “But it’s very difficult to fight against the power of regression towards the mean. Fans of advance stats and other sports know that. It’s just as true in football, and it is a reason the 49ers are not a leading Super Bowl contender going into 2012.”

Schatz offered up best- and worst-case scenarios for the 49ers in relation to NFL history.

Best-case: The 49ers will follow the path of the Philadelphia Eagles, who went from 5-11 in 1999 to 11-5 in 2000, then repeated at 11-5 in 2001 to start a streak of four consecutive trips to the NFC Championship game.

Worst-case: The 49ers mimic the 2002 Chicago Bears, who were ravaged by injuries and went 4-12 after going 13-3 in 2001 (and 5-11 in 2000).

Football Outsiders gave the 49ers a 39.5-percent chance of returning to the playoffs. And once you’re in the Lombardi Trophy Dash, we all know that everyone is a contender.

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i wonder if during games on the field players use stats an averages to make their decisions an make throws an play the game. o ya they dont, they just play. proof of just how meaningless overanalyzing

Hacksaw46

Cam, I tried to be a fan of advanced stats but I like football a whole lot better….LOL

Dave

Statistics like these are why sportsbooks in Vegas rake in billions of dollars.

It’s worth noting that two years ago Football Outsiders predicted the Niners would drastically underperform expectations and only win 6 games. At the time, the Niners were being hailed as the favorite to win the NFC West. Result: 6-10.

The Niners may buck the odds this year, but the smart play is to take the under (Niners over/under 10 wins).

Michael Wolfe

The topics for this offseason have regressed to 2 standard deviations below the mean. Blah!

ninerD

so.. if the niners had won the superbowl.. i wonder if all this BS would be coming.. I certainly think that the niners will have a better season than the champs the giants.. yet.. nothing is said about them.

Lance Newberry

They won close games and lost close games, and a 13-win season is tough to replicate for any team.

Also, there is no question that the lack of injuries was an amazing help and that doesn’t happen often (although they did have some, and God knows their WR group was hit hard and was left with nothing but dreck for most of the season and they still won) so it’s easy to say that they’ll slip, as any team will when hit with multiple injuries.

But, the one thing that can’t be quantified statistically, and maybe the biggest reason they won so many games last season, is the “team” aspect, and thanks to Harbaugh & his staff (and also the past regime and the type of players they brought in) this group is A TEAM, and excellent TEAMS often play better than they look on paper, and win games they should probably lose.

No way to know until they play the games, and that’s getting closer so we won’t have to waste our time talking about this type of meaningless filler much longer.

GO NINERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Oahuan

The trouble with any statistical analysis is that it is dependent on what statistical factors are being analyzed, and the refinement of the analysis by adding other possibly relevant factors may very well skew the results so much that the exception proves the rule.

For instance, does the Football Outsiders regression factor in how many teams that went from bad to good back to bad (or mediocre) records consider how many teams that achieved an excellent record and then fell back did so with a completely new coaching staff but no off season prior to the successful year. Probably not, because there probably is not another example of that ever happening.

So statistical analysis be damned. The 49ers have a tougher schedule and may not be as fortunate as they were last year in terms of being relatively injury free, but they go 11-5 at worst.

Biglou

This is the ninners year; with some luck we go 12-4 and go into The playoff ready to tear-it up!!!

GO NINNERS……..

49erlifer

Got to agree with #1, doesn’t matter how many stats you take into consideration, there is no way to predict how a team will do. Everyone expected the 49ers to be at the bottom of the league due to the lockout, but Jim and the team almost became the top dogs in their 1st year together.

I expect great things in 2012 and for the next decade for the 49ers. I think Jimbo might have this team challenging the consecutive seasons with a playoff berth before its all said and done.

49erlifer

*record

ron rafi

What were their statistical odds of going 13-3 last year? Exactly.

MNB

Cam: Show this to Harbaugh and co and see how they’ll react towards it. Should be interesting. It’ll get the team fired up!!

Alec

So…the 49ers will go 7-9 due to injuries that haven’t happened yet. Brilliant.

Jeff

This guy and his football outsider statistics make me want to puke all over his logic.
I hate that numbers, regressions to means, simulations of games played over and over somehow trump the facts.
The facts are that the 49ers have their entire defense returning from last years best in the league. On offense they have improved themselves on paper and addressed many of their weaknesses.
The Niners will now be able to operate with a second season under Coach Harbaugh and his system. The Niners will improve as a team…they most likely won’t match last year’s number of wins, but with a little luck on their side have as good a chance as any team to punch a ticket to the Super-Bowl.
Aaron Shaut is just spewing statistical garbage and trying to sell a book. How gives these idiots a voice?

Old Jack

Thankfully training camp will soon start and these idiots who think they are geniuses will fade away. Stats are for those without a life. What a waste of a reader’s time. Nice article, Cam. Next one will probably be on the Bachelor.

Cam, remember John Madden one of the great football minds. He always said: “THAT IS WHY YOU PLAY THE GAME”. No one had predicted that 9-7 Giants would beat Tom Brady twice, call it luck or a fluke, because minus Kyle Williams, we would have been playing in Superbowl. No one can deny that!! So, we will see that win 7 or more.!!

7 wins, are you serious? Harbaugh is the best coach in the West. Pete Carroll can’t carry Harbaugh’s jock. The Niners will win at least 10 games. The schedule is difficult. But, the Niners will win the division and advance to the conference championship. Whether they will win and go to the Super Bowl depends upon the special teams. That will be the difference.

VA49er

Didn’t these guys rate us at 8 wins last year?

DO their statistics also take into account poor coaching, poor offensive schemes from the past 7 years, and that the staff changed last year hence there is a variable in this equation which they’re not accounting for: Change of philosophy and staff. You can’t compare 2010 and before and 2011, that makes no sense. You assume continuity with a system like that.

Also on the injuries… I believe we had a few last year but people stepping and covered well, and we therefore didn’t feel it as much because of the… wait for it… COACHING!

That’s just dumb.

Sergeant49

7 games! That’s got to be a joke. We will win our division easily and we will be the team nobody wants to play

Farsheezt

Statistics this, statistics that…this crap means nothing when the Niners come out and demolish everyone in the NFC west with a 14-2 record finishing as Superbowl champs…Schatz will eat his non-sensical myths as he watches what the Niners do to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers in the first game..Under Harbaugh..this team is going to be AMAZING! SCARY Amazing!
I CANT WAIT!!! to see all the nay sayers eyes pop out! GO NINERS!! Who’s got it better than us?!?!? NOBODY!!!

Grant Rodgers

I’m curious to see stats on how often football outsiders have correctly predicted win/loss following analysis of previous seasons. I’m also curious to know how many wins their 1 million times run of numbers predicted the Niners would have had last year! I doubt it was more than 10!

Point is, this is all BS! If statistics were reliable predictors I’m quite sure Las Vegas would be all over it! These guys are just trying to shove their meaningless book down our throats! If their book was of any worth, it wouldn’t be in PDF format.

Lets just watch football and see how this team will do!

latopia

Schatz: “But it’s very difficult to fight against the power of regression towards the mean. ”

—

And when the mean is confined to injury rates with no consideration of differences among teams in training/conditioning methods which may affect corresponding rates of prevention or recovery, regression towards the mean simply becomes another transgression of omission.

Let’s say we lose one of our MLBs’. We have depth there. With no drop off. Line? Depth there too. Corner? Depth. Safety is probably where we are the weakest on Defense as far as depth goes. Oh yeah still have depth there too.

Running Backs? Depth hopefully the new kid will be able to fill a role not specifically on Special teams.

Fullbacks, we’re good on this one with Icebox and Reuland filling in if and when necessary.

Receivers I think we’re okay now but we could use a standout in Camp to compete his way onto the roster. Can never have too much depth in that unit as we saw last season.

Our sticky wickets are OLine and QB. Hopefully this is where Johnson shows his worth by pushing the other Backups hard enough in Camp that they can only get better. Tolzien may not make the roster, although I would like to see him make it in a Special Teams capacity to give this team 4 QBs’ on the roster. Even if he’s only the holder for Akers on FG unit. Cause if Smith goes do… well you know what I’m saying.

This team has the depth at this point to be able to soldier on and keep pushing forward. I don’t see the mean being less than 9 Wins for this team. On a personnel vs personnel basis I see us with at 11 Wins on this schedule. Though it is easier than last years. This team matches up well with any team in the League this Season. There isn’t a team on the Schedule other than maybe the Packers that I’d question whether our guys can come away with a Win.

Oh and the teams picked to have 9 Wins or more? Not a single one of them are West of New Orleans. I seriously doubt that Buffalo, Pittsburgh and the Patriots all have Winning records. I’m not sure but I believe that they were all predicted to have 9 Wins this season. I don’t see that happening at all. 😛

Spokaneninerfan

You Joker! the coaches are different and players have mutured. You are off your rocker! I dont think we get 13 but i bet we do get 10 at least and the division is ours. Easy schedule? Joker you are wrong again. We have one of the toughest schedules in the leauge. weird.

David

7-9? Noway , I wouldnt say 13-3 due to their tough schedule , but we should win 5 in NFC West and atleast 5 outside 10-6 , and they will end up being the team other fans dont want to see coming in the playoffs. Football is 25% confidence , 25% talent 25% skilled coaching , and 25% luck.We will have 75% this year

latopia

“I’m curious to see stats on how often football outsiders have correctly predicted win/loss following analysis of previous seasons”

You can manipulate them to suit your POV and at the same time reduce your opponents argument to nothing. History is not on our favor though, but we do have evidence of being able to maintain and even surpass a previous year’s success. It’s our own 49ers! Back in 1983, we lost to the Skins at RFK by the same lousy three points on a bogus call by the refs (all due respect) for an interference call on our own Ronnie Lott. The pain hasn’t dissipated completely, leaving lasting memories on a kid who loved his Niners.

The kid now, sees a resemblance. You remember 1984 on our own backyard, right? Well, I see the same thing. I see an increase in talent and the heart, desire and work ethic to get it done at the player lever. At the coaches’ level, there’s a whole ‘nother POV many don’t understand except their players, faith.

That faith is built on Harbaugh’s own “Cathedral”. Just like the late, great Coach Bill Walsh, may God rest his soul, Harbaugh chooses his players well and has faith in them. Like 2011, in ’83 we lost in the NFCC with a talented team. That team was 10-6. We were 13-3 when we lost last year. Tough to repeat, but can be done because we went 15-1 in ’84 and won the SuperBowl.

Stats can be manipulated to skew the audience toward your POV…just sayin’.

You can tell there’s little else to write about a week out from training camp. It happens every year…there’s nothing substantive to talk about…FA, done, draft, done, OTA’s/mini-camps, done. So, we get this drivel instead…come on, man.

AdamO

Keep this in mind all the computer sims still cant beat vegas on a regular basis I’m calling 11-5 or 12-4 the computer geeks can kiss our ring #6 after the season is over.

latopia

Conclusions? Inconclusive.

More conclusive: FO isn’t materially more reliable or accurate than Vegas.

However, when you eliminate IND from BOTH forecasts — since Manning was never officially placed on injured reserve which may have lead some preseason prognosticators to assume Manning might play — VI WAS more accurate (smaller diffs) than FO.

VegasInsider-

Mean diff: 1.97
STDEV: 1.25
Var: 1.56
Pop: 1.23
Var (Pop STDEV): 1.51

Football Outsiders –

Mean diff: 2.42
STDEV: 1.52
Var: 2.32
Pop: 1.50
Var (Pop STDEV): 2.24

latopia

“which may have [led] some …”

darrel

Crap like this what gives these idiots a job. Remember these same idiots said the niners would do nothing with a new coach and no training camp. They were really right on that one. They take lessons from Ratto and Grant Cohn.

latopia

“Keep this in mind all the computer sims still cant beat vegas …”

—

Seems that way in VI to FO comparison.

Oh really

Hey writer, I have three fingers up, the middle finger is for this article

latopia

“Ceadderman says on July 19th, 2012 at 6:47 pm”

—

Good pts. Which should be included in any prediction that factors injuries.

Oh really

49ers may not win or may win 13 but since it isn’t the season then you don’t know jac shiit … I’ll predict they’ll have a better yr this yr cause their better10 times better …

Jack Hammer

AC, err Ceadderman, You’re a goof ball.

U M

Did you forget Patrick Willis and Adam Snyder got hurt sir!!

latopia

“This team has the depth at this point to be able to soldier on and keep pushing forward.”

—

Exactly — with the 2 exceptions you’ve noted.

Otherwise, I’ll raise you 1 on your prediction (predicted 12 back in Mar & sticking to it) even though 2012’s strength-of-schedule (.488) [ es.pn/IjjaXi ] is slightly stronger than 2011’s (.465) [ es.pn/i3PGNR ] based on each season prior.

jsteez

This analysis is the best example of garbage in, garbage out I have seen.

7 wins? we’ll have 5 or 6 in the NFC West alone. Personally, I’m a fan of advanced stats, but football is the hardest to quantify because so much is decided by the thinnest of margins, and it’s more about the team than the individual players. Stats don’t predict Justin Smith forcing a fumble to save the game against the Eagles, and they don’t project 2 fumbles by KW to lose the NFC Championship game (as well as the non-fumble by Bradshaw). Smart money is on the Niners this year

ladale

This 9ers team is a Superbowl favorite not only because of what they’ve done (last season) but because of the additions made on offense. Last seasons team may very well have only won 7 games (if the team had remained stagnant) but this is not last seasons team.

Colin

I heard Aaron Schatz talk during the season and playoffs on different podcasts. He continually downgraded the 49ers. That is why sports are great, you still must play the game. The 49ers were tough , and made the most of their breaks. Very few of these “experts” actually predict accurately the next seasons records. Maybe Mike Silver, he had the best record last year and takes his predictions anything but seriously.

Ceadderman

@41… Great argument. I’m sure you told me. 😀 lmao

One question though, who is AC?

There is only one of me and that will never change. I’ve been using this SN since the Internet started. I’m too old to change it now. 😛

hwighting

ill accept the stats but the stats don’t take into account there was a new coaching staff and new team mentality. the stats assume that the team as a whole stays the same from one year to the next.

Mood_Indigo

I’m a fan of Football Outsiders. But one must understand the limitations of their approach. Statistics only begins to make sense for metrics that have significantly large sample sizes, preferably several hundreds. But it makes absolutely no sense for sample sizes as a small as number of games played in one season. Even worse, the number of independent and dependent variables involved are very large.

Even though a statistical model for W-L record is meaningless, a mathematical model that included certain statistical results for random events (e.g., for injuries) is quite feasible. It just seems to me that F.O.’s model is just not sophisticated enough to encompass so many variables (e.g., effect of coaching team members’ track record with other teams, within or outside of NFL). Note that their model correctly predicted the 6-10 record in 2010 when most of us were dreaming of playoff wins.

After correcting for random injuries and taking into account the team’s depth, the superb strength and conditioning program, and superior coaching, the Indigo Model predicts a 99.5% chance of a 11-5 or better record for the Niners this season 🙂

jtniner

So what this all says is that statistically speaking the Niners will not be as good this year on paper as they were last year. I agree with that, especially the fact that we had minimal injuries last year. What I disagree with is the assumption that statistics determine superbowl contenders when that couldn’t be further from the truth – just look at the Giants halfway through the season! The Niners most likely will not have the same record but they will win the West and they will go to the superbowl and win!!!!

I wonder if they ran this before last season, would it have predicted a 13 win season? It wouldn’t have and that is enough to indicate that this method of prediction is inaccurate.

mglt6710

“Statistics” are great to note, keeping in mind that “Statistics” can NEVER measure heart, soul, resourcefulness, ambition, desire to win.

Everyone said Joe Montana did not possess a cannon arm and would not be successful. Do 4 Lombardi’s and 3 MVP’s spell “success?” And he got it done with all of the above AND great teams, overall. One just knew, when Joe got the ball, he’d get it done, period. What “statistic” does one invoke for that?

I’m with John Madden: And THAT’S why you play the game. My stat is, the writer is 100% full of crap.

Boldin81

Hey, everybody knows that the Lombardi trophy is already ensconsed in the confines of the offices of the 49rs. If you don’t believe me, just inquire of the niner fans. They will set you straight along with everyone who disputes or attempts to paint a gloomy picture or rain on the Super Bowl parade. Geeez, don’t you try to disappoint them.

3rd king

We r going to start 7-2

adamb3v

This analysis doesn’t make any sense. The 49ers did what they did last season with a shortened preseason, which relatively speaking hurts a team putting in a new system. Apparently Fanzio didn’t even have time to install the whole defense. Then add to the fact that we have the entire defense coming back (a rarity now in the NFL) and for the first time Alex Smith having the same offensive coordinator for two straight seasons. Then add Moss, James, etc. to the offense and i think you have a better team. I’m predicting Super Bowl Victory but at the very least this is a playoff team. Look at Harbaugh’s history at Stanford.

austin

This article is absolutely pointless..hey who ever wrote this article, take off your blinders and realize the 49ers have easily the best D in the league and upgraded there offense from last year when we were 2 special teams fumbles away from the super bowl….only win 7 games??? ya ok i bet u were the same guy last year who had us at 4-12 before the season…terrible article

“Football Outsiders gave the 49ers a 39.5-percent chance of returning to the playoffs.”

That means that they don’t even think that the 9ers will win the division. As VA49er said above, that’s just dumb. They zero in on the stats and completely lose sight of the over all picture. Cam, I assume that you posted this nonsense just to get us all riled up. It worked. However, there is another consequence that you did not consider. By not pointing out the problems with this “analysis”, you made yourself look like a fool. Every time I see your byline now, I will discount anything you have to say.

It’s very difficult to fight against the power of regression towards the dumb.

Bill

The problem with this particular blind statistical analysis is that it ignores what was well known to be the primary problem with the 49ers over the last 4 seasons or so: the coaching. The team has been above average in talent for several seasons, but people who have watched the team are aware that it was consistently out coached in every facet: use of talent, game planning, play calling, management of games, etc. This team is now one of the best coached in football. I suspect we will see a much better NFC West, possibly with two playoff teams, but the 49ers will still win it with 10-12 wins.

Liquidman

The fact that we are returning with our incredible defense intact and adding really good receivers will only make the niners better. I think what some people are looking at is the fact that Alex Smith is not reliable. You can not deny that only converting 1 third down out of 13 tries in a championship game is not acceptable. Don’t forget how horrible we were in the red zone. The analyzers look at these things without the benefit of rose colored glasses that a lot of Smith fans wear. If we see the same type of play this year Harbaugh needs to bring in the other talent early including Scott Tolzien who I think has what it takes.