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The Fermi Paradox – Wait But Why

“One possible future Great Filter is a regularly-occurring cataclysmic natural event, like the above-mentioned gamma-ray bursts, except they’re unfortunately not done yet and it’s just a matter of time before all life on Earth is suddenly wiped out by one. Another candidate is the possible inevitability that nearly all intelligent civilizations end up destroying themselves once a certain level of technology is reached” … There is substantial evidence that cataclysmic events are much more frequent than we expect, notably maybe just 13,000 years ago for us, maybe happening multiple times in the 180,000 year history of genetically modern humans. And we have come close to a global nuclear exchange, just 50 years ago. We are both sentient meat, and really fucking lucky.
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