gennaio 18, 2016

Venezuela: The Light at the End of the Tunnel?

For the first time since 1999,
Venezuela’s revolutionary socialist regime faces an opposition
parliament. But rather than seeking some form of “cohabitation” with its
political adversaries, the government has chosen the path of outright
confrontation, raising once again the prospect of serious political
violence in this nation of 30 million people.Following its landslide election victory on 6 December,
when it won 112 of the 167 seats in the single-chamber National
Assembly, the Democratic Unity (MUD) coalition, a multiparty alliance of
mainly centrist and centre-left parties formed in 2008, took control of
the legislature on 5 January.

Despite threats from President Nicolás Maduro and other leaders of the ruling United Socialist Party (PSUV) to “take to the streets”
in resistance, the hand-over was peaceful, barring some minor violence
and moments of tension during the opening session. Thousands of
demonstrators from both sides were kept apart by strong contingents of
riot police and National Guard troops.The outgoing parliamentary majority,
led by the country’s second most powerful figure, Diosdado Cabello, did
not withdraw gracefully. The assembly’s own TV channel, ANTV, was
dismantled and its equipment removed. But even if it will no longer have
its own television station, at least the assembly will now be open to
all journalists, after years in which ANTV’s government propagandists were the only ones allowed in the chamber.

With the swearing-in out of the way,
however, a much bigger problem remains to be resolved. While Maduro
accepted his defeat within hours of the polls closing, he has so far
given no sign of understanding its significance. Rather than seeking to
work with the new legislature to resolve the grave economic and social
crisis afflicting the country, he has sought to circle the wagons in a bid to resist the change the electorate is clearly seeking.

A long-awaited cabinet reshuffle,
announced on 6 January, reconfirmed what the president had been saying:
the answer to the crisis is more revolution. As head of the economic
team Maduro appointed an ultra-radical, Luis Salas, whose proposals seem
guaranteed to tip the country into hyper-inflation and accelerate the
collapse of the economy.In its dying weeks the government-dominated legislature had rushed through a number of laws and other measures designed to block the MUD’s reform program.
It took away parliament’s power to appoint members of the Central Bank
(BCV) board, for example, and enshrined in law the BCV’s suppression of
economic statistics. But the most ominous move – and one that has already had a major impact – was the hurried replacement of more than a third of the 32-member Supreme Court (TSJ).The thirteen new judges are all government loyalists. Some of them were
actually PSUV members of parliament who voted for their own
appointments, including the chairman of the selection committee. Many
did not meet the legal requirements for the post and the appointments
procedure itself was not respected.

The government’s evident aim was to
prevent the incoming parliament replacing Supreme Court members due to
retire this year. Maduro has made it clear that he will seek to use the
court (and in particular its constitutional branch) to block any
legislative measures not to the government’s liking. Even before the new
parliament was sworn in, the electoral branch of the court took the
unusual step of opening during the year-end holidays to admit legal
challenges to the election of a dozen MPs, all but one of them
opposition members.The court also approved an injunction to suspend the swearing-in of the four MPs elected for Amazonas state,
including three from the opposition, because of alleged vote-buying.
The MUD merely delayed their swearing-in for a day. The suspension of
the three seats held by opposition Amazonas lawmakers is a vital issue
for the MUD, as they give the opposition a “super-majority”
that would allow them, among other things, to appoint or dismiss senior
officials and even (subject to referendum) rewrite the constitution.But the PSUV has asked the Supreme
Court to declare the parliamentary leadership in contempt. Cabello
insists that while they continue to defy the injunction any decision
taken by the assembly is null and void. He has called for its funding to
be suspended.

Much, if not all, of the opposition’s
legislative agenda, which is particularly focused on economic and
social measures, is not to the government’s liking. It has also sworn to
block the MUD’s promise of an amnesty for political prisoners and
exiles. One manoeuvre in particular stands out: within days of the
election the government installed an unelected “National Communal Parliament” in the old Senate chamber, through which it claims “the people” will legislate directly.One possible answer to the judicial
blockade is for parliament to reform the law governing the Supreme
Court, expanding the number of members to dilute government control. But
ultimately, if Maduro holds firm, the only way the opposition can win
this political chess game in the medium term is to oust him through
constitutional means. Henry Ramos, the new chairman of the National
Assembly, has said the MUD will devise a way to do that within six
months, unless the government has a change of heart. One possibility is a
recall referendum, which under the constitution can be triggered within
a few months.Venezuela’s closest international
partner, the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR), has so far
remained silent on the Government’s manoeuvers to retain power, although
the governments of Argentina, Costa Rica and the U.S. and the Secretary
General of the Organization of American States Luis Almagro have raised
their voices against the government’s misuse of the judiciary. The
Brazilian foreign ministry, in a statement, warned that there was “no
place, in 21st-century South America, for political solutions outside
the institutional framework and the most absolute respect for democracy
and the rule of law”.The situation is clear: if the
assembly is held to be in contempt, and its decisions null and void, the
government will for all practical purposes have closed down the elected
parliament and abandoned constitutional rule. The priority for UNASUR and the rest
of the international community should be to stop the possibility of
Venezuela’s slide into outright dictatorship by holding the government
to account under the Inter-American Democratic Charter and other
treaties.A failure to act on the part of Venezuela’s international partners
would contribute to further political escalation and the potential
destabilisation of the Andean region. A social explosion threatens too.
The price of oil, which fuelled the success of the late President Hugo
Chávez, continues to hit new lows. Food, medicines and other basic goods
are becoming scarcer by the month, and inflation is running at an
annualised rate of 500 per cent.The fact that the opposition was able to
achieve a peaceful, democratic change of leadership in the Venezuelan
parliament may suggest there is light at the end of the country’s
tunnel. But for now no one can be sure it is not the headlight of an
oncoming train.By Phil Gunson

Anyway Maduro is an unintelligent dictator.
Cosmo de La Fuente

Nicolas Maduro, Venezuela’s president, recently announced
that if the opposition were to gain a majority in the National Assembly
in elections this Sunday, “We would not give up the revolution and … we
would govern with the people in a civil-military union.” To ensure that
no one would accuse him of not being a true democrat, he clarified
that “we would do this with the constitution in hand.” The president
conveniently ignored the small detail that the constitution does not
have any provision for a “civil-military” government, nor does it give
the government the option of disregarding the outcome of an election.
What Maduro did stress,
however, was that if the revolution fails, “there will be a massacre”—a
threat he has repeatedly made throughout the campaign. He usually
follows such threats with reassurances that this violence will not ensue
since it is impossible for opposition candidates to win enough votes
for a legislative majority, which Maduro’s party has enjoyed for the
past 17 years.