There’s neither Cold War nor warm peace

Dec 18, 2012

Yevgeny Shestakov

In 2012, Russia did not declare a cold war on the West and has no intention of doing so in the future. The proposed new Russian foreign policy concept speaks of applying confidence and co-operation on the basis of pragmatism with Moscow’s European partners. Yet developments over the past year have prompted fears in Russia that an undeclared cold war is already being waged.

The passing of the Magnitsky bill by the U.S. Congress, which
imposes sanctions on Russian officials who, in the opinion of American
law-makers, were complicit in the death of Hermitage Capital Management lawyer
Alexei Magnitsky, is only the tip of the iceberg. It was the final act in a
series of unfriendly western political moves towards Moscow.

On two of the most
sensitive issues – the deployment of a European missile defence system and
European visas for Russians – the Kremlin suffered a crushing defeat.

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These conflicts were particularly noticeable against the
background of positive relations developing between Russia and Asia. The 2012
Apec summit in Vladivostok and the Customs Union and the Eurasian Union
projects were unqualified successes, not least on the diplomatic front.

The
economic initiatives to transform Russia into a transit state between Asia and
Europe and the oil and gas projects orientated on the East have also gained the support of Moscow’s partners in Asia.

In Europe, the situation has been different. On the one
hand, 2012 saw the launch of long-term economic projects linking Russia and the
Old World. These included the laying of the Nord Stream gas pipeline on the bed
of the Baltic Sea and the start of construction of the South Stream gas
pipeline under the Black Sea. These will link north and south Europe to Russian
gas fields.

At the political level, however, the dialogue between Moscow and
Europe has been marked by increased tension, with little hope for improvement.

Moscow has criticised the West for human rights violations
this year, including the brutal suppression of mass action against austerity
measures. Police in Europe and the U.S. dispersed protesters and detained dozens
of people.

Another issue to which Moscow paid close attention was the
rights of children who are sometimes unreasonably taken away from their
families by social workers. The last incident of this kind occurred this month
in Finland, where four children, including a baby, were taken away from their
Russian mother without a court ruling, solely on the basis of anonymous
denunciations.

There have also been many cases where adopted Russian
children have died in American families, while their murderers, in Moscow’s
opinion, have not always been duly punished for their crimes. When Russia
criticised the West’s human rights abuses, it aroused the anger of many
politicians.

The issue of family values has also caused a rift between
Russia and the West. In Europe and the U.S., gay relationships have increasingly
been approved by government legislation. The concepts of “mother” and “father”
have been replaced in official documents with the impersonal terms “parent 1” and “parent 2”, following the Scandinavian
example.

Russia categorically objects to this. St Petersburg passed a law
banning “homosexual propaganda” that led to Milan refusing a twinning
arrangement with the city. Nevertheless, the Russian authorities are convinced
that public opinion is fully behind them on the grounds that the legalisation
of same-sex marriages runs counter to traditional Christian and family values.

The St Petersburg law was seen as a violation of human
rights by European activists. They linked the issue of same-sex marriages with
granting visa-free travel for Russians to the EU. The EU’s political documents
stipulate that visa-free status is only granted to countries with a clean human
rights record. Moscow, however, has refused to budge on the issue, which further
complicated the Russian-European dialogue at the intellectual level.

Russia’s new foreign policy concept does not envisage any
revolutionary change of outlook, which will remain traditional and fairly
conservative. Russia will stick to its interpretation of the principles of
international law and the primacy of UN Security Council decisions on
international affairs. It will also react to events in accordance with the
specific situation and seek to build a new dialogue with countries that had a
regime change during the Arab spring.

At the same time, I predict that next year will see more
tension in Russia’s relations with its partners in Europe and the US. Why?

First, the conflict in Syria on which Russia and the West fail to agree. The
conflict is drawing more states into its orbit, ceasing to be local and
becoming geopolitical. Second, at least two meetings held last year at such key
forums as the NATO-Russia Council and the Russia-EU Council have lost much of
their effectiveness. The West is giving Russia a polite hearing but not
considering Russia’s interests when taking decisions. There are no signs that
this will change.

Russia is ready for dialogue with the West, as reflected in
its foreign policy concept, but it won’t change its approach to internal and
foreign policy. The Kremlin is particularly worried about the reluctance of its
European and American partners to recognize Moscow’s national security
concerns. So a further deterioration in relations between them is inevitable. Virtually
all areas of co-operation will be directly or indirectly curtailed or put on
hold.

Even so, there is no question yet of a new cold war between Russia and
the West. The two sides still have much to gain from the joint initiatives in
combating terrorism and drug trafficking and the joint economic projects. That
will keep Russia and the West on civil terms for a while.

Russia’s expert community has devoted much more time this
year to discussing the prospects in Asia than those in Europe. The West’s
pointed refusal to recognise Moscow’s concerns and Russia’s pointedly
unfriendly actions have created an atmosphere of mutual mistrust. This has
spread to all areas of co-operation, from military to humanitarian issues.

But “a bad peace is better than a good quarrel”. I would stick
my neck out and say that, in 2013, the most one can expect is a “bad peace”.

Yevgeny Shestakov is editor of the international politics
desk at Rossiyskaya Gazeta.