I admit it: My prediction that the Communist Party would fall by 2011 was wrong. Still, I'm only off by a year

In the middle of 2001, I predicted in my book, The Coming Collapse of China, that the Communist Party would fall from power in a decade, in large measure because of the changes that accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) would cause. A decade has passed; the Communist Party is still in power. But don't think I'm taking my prediction back.

Don't believe any of this. China outperformed other countries because it was in a three-decade upward supercycle, principally for three reasons. First, there were Deng Xiaoping's transformational "reform and opening up" policies, first implemented in the late 1970s. Second, Deng's era of change coincided with the end of the Cold War, which brought about the elimination of political barriers to international commerce. Third, all of this took place while China was benefiting from its "demographic dividend," an extraordinary bulge in the workforce.

First, the Communist Party has turned its back on Deng's progressive policies. Hu Jintao, the current leader, is presiding over an era marked by, on balance, the reversal of reform. There has been, especially since 2008, a partial renationalization of the economy and a marked narrowing of opportunities for foreign business

Second, the global boom of the last two decades ended in 2008 when markets around the world crashed.

Third, China, which during its reform era had one of the best demographic profiles of any nation, will soon have one of the worst. The Chinese workforce will level off in about 2013, perhaps 2014,

A modern totalitarian state collapses either when its rulers no longer automatically kill even the hint of opposition, or when its economy collapses. China still kills dissidents, and the US is still filling their coffers. No chance the Chicoms are out of power anytime soon.

5
posted on 01/02/2012 7:23:05 PM PST
by GenXteacher
(He that hath no stomach for this fight, let him depart!)

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A modern totalitarian state collapses either when its rulers no longer automatically kill even the hint of opposition, or when its economy collapses. China still kills dissidents, and the US is still filling their coffers. No chance the Chicoms are out of power anytime soon.
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You have to watch Chinese social structure carefully before any assumptions.

They have a huge 300 million middle class and twice as large underclasses living for a dollar a day strruggling into a middle class.
A social evevator works nice for determined enought but it is powered with growth.
No growth = big trouble for Chicom gubmint and there is a single way to toss a hundred million unwanted surplus young males.

China has mastered the hybrid communist state. The people are still not free and essentially slaves to a regime without any input. But you have semi free markets and they allow for foreign investments, technology, business practices and management techniques to come in. Trade and the forces of a free market shape these new economies but the old power brokers simply put themselves on top as CEO of some major state run energy conglomerate such as the Russian Gazprom. The real power brokers remain the same old people as before, they simply become the Kingpins in these new pseudo free economies which you also have in Vietnam, Russia etc. These economies are largely doing fine because unlike the past where they were isolated, ignored supply and demand curves, were to slow to react because everything was planned centralized... they today are often MORE capitalist that the US / Germany or other mixed economies of the West when it comes to dealing with dead firms that aren't making money, or changes in technology or demand based on consumer taste etc. I would bet money that I could take an idea and go to production in China with this idea in less time, with less costs, with less restrictions than in the US.

I think it’s only a matter of time before China comes apart under the communists. Time, innovation and the desire for profit is relentless. You can always count on change and with today’s technologies, change happens faster.

I don’t think the younger Chinese are going to be as obedient as their ancestors. I wonder how much North Korea’s existence is dependent on the Chinese. A China undid would create a lot of interesting scenarios.like the breakup of the USSR. China could very well come apart in a similar way.

The Wall St Journal had a great editorial about 10 years ago which asked, “If Hitler hadn’t fought WWII, and if the Third Reich had lasted 60 years or so, what would Nazi Germany look like today?” The WSJ answer: 21st century China.

15
posted on 01/02/2012 7:44:27 PM PST
by ClearCase_guy
(Nothing will change until after the war. It's coming.)

Last year China experienced 280,000 of what the government calls mass incidents, including petitions, demonstrations and strikes, both peaceful and violent, and invariably linked to anger over corruption, abuses and the illegal seizure of land.

This marks a steep rise from 87,000 incidents in 2005.

17
posted on 01/02/2012 7:52:02 PM PST
by listenhillary
(Look your representatives in the eye and ask if they intend to pay off the debt. They will look away)

Can an entrepreneur prosper more in China than in the US? No, I don't think so. As you point out, the Chinese would rip off the entrepreneur. They have no respect for intellectual property rights.

But the other question is: Can the Nation of China quickly put ideas into effect, quickly build factories, and quickly bring new products to the marketplace? Can the Chinese GNP quickly benefit from somebody's brilliant idea? You bet!!

In the US? Quick factories? Quick to market? Benefits to our GNP? Uhhhhhhhh ... I don't think so. We crush domestic economic initiative. The Chinese do not crush such initiative -- they merely rip it off.

18
posted on 01/02/2012 7:53:46 PM PST
by ClearCase_guy
(Nothing will change until after the war. It's coming.)

I do think that China has a rough future but it’s because of the struggle btwn Communism and the people’s ever increasing embrace of free enterprise; the political philosophy is separate from the country itself. Communism in China is dying.

I think this book would be better if its premise were that too many countries allow the birth and growth of a Communistic society. I think that’s what is happening in China and the Commies are on the downside of that growth curve. In the U.S., unfortunately, the Commies may still be on the growth side of the curve with what’s his name at the helm. That equates to a very ugly next 20+ years for the U.S. unless the people are in fact fed up and toss all the Commies out in the upcoming election. We must do all we can to help that happen!

19
posted on 01/02/2012 7:56:21 PM PST
by Rembrandt
(.. AND the donkey you rode in on.)

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
China has mastered the hybrid communist state. The people are still not free and essentially slaves to a regime without any input. But you have semi free markets and they allow for foreign investments, technology, business practices and management techniques to come in. Trade and the forces of a free market shape these new economies but the old power brokers simply put themselves on top as CEO of some major state run energy conglomerate such as the Russian Gazprom. The real power brokers remain the same old people as before, they simply become the Kingpins in these new pseudo free economies which you also have in Vietnam, Russia etc. These economies are largely doing fine because unlike the past where they were isolated, ignored supply and demand curves, were to slow to react because everything was planned centralized... they today are often MORE capitalist that the US / Germany or other mixed economies of the West when it comes to dealing with dead firms that aren’t making money, or changes in technology or demand based on consumer taste etc. I would bet money that I could take an idea and go to production in China with this idea in less time, with less costs, with less restrictions than in the US.
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Do you realize a thing you described has nothing in common with communism?

It is called Fascism and Nazy Germany&Imperial Japan are historical examples of this system.

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