Playoff Prospectus

NLCS Preview: Dodgers vs. Cardinals

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For those who like nonstop chatter about how differently the teams were constructed, this is the series or you. Expect to hear about the Cardinals' homegrown ways and how they contrast with the free-spending Dodgers. There's a solid chance that talking point gets annoying by the second or third game; luckily, the games should be fun regardless of the predictable narratives.

The Dodgers finished ninth in the league in True Average, two spots ahead of the Cardinals. The similarities between the lineups extend beyond their regular-season numbers: Both are missing a star-level performer and have a hole near the bottom of their order. It's probably worth noting the Dodgers have, at least statistically, the top two batters in the series, in Ramirez and Puig.

The Cardinals lack the elite top-end the Dodgers have, but are reasonably well-balanced over their top five batters. Should Carpenter's struggles in the Divisional Series continue, Mike Matheny might have to find a new leadoff hitter. Matheny changed lineups early last round, moving Jay down in the order, so don't treat these lineups as if they are set in stone.

The Dodgers' decision to use Clayton Kershaw in Game Four of the Divisional Series all but decided their Game One and Two probables for them. Greinke and Kershaw were always starting the first two games anyway. From there Ryu will make his second postseason appearance. Nolasco didn't pitch in the Divisional Series, and it'll be interesting to see how long his leash is in Game Four.

It's Kelly, not Lynn, getting the Game One start. Wacha, arguably the breakout star from the Divisional Series for the Cardinals, receives the nod in Game Two. The short turnaround between series means Wainwright won't start until Game Three and is limited to two starts. Lynn, meanwhile, will try to make a good postseason start for the first time in his career. Another failure and the Cardinals might have to reconsider his position in the rotation should they advance.

The Cardinals can throw power arm after power arm at teams in the late innings.

Defense
The Dodgers hold the edge over the Cardinals when it comes to defense. Los Angeles ranked ninth league-wide in defensive efficiency, including the second-highest rate of turning groundballs into outs. Of course the first ranking came without Skip Schumaker manning center field, so make of it what you will. The Cardinals, on the other hand, ranked 21st in defensive efficiency, though that rank was earned with Craig at first base most days.

Managers
Don Mattingly, whose job security appeared limited earlier in the season, is as old school as his nickname. Mattingly is likely to draw ire for his fondness toward the bunt and the intentional walk. Yet, even though he likes to interrupt the flow of play at times, he's not one to call for many stolen bases or hit-and-run attempts. Likewise, Mattingly seldom uses his bench to pinch-hit or pinch-run, and given his roster, it's not like he's forced to do so often.

Mike Matheny is fortunate: two seasons as manager, two postseason appearances. Matheny lets his team's talent do most of the work, and rarely calls for a hit-and-run, steal, or bunt attempt. Being a former catcher himself, he's not opposed to visiting the mound in spots usually reserved for pitching coaches. Likewise, Matheny lets his pitchers work deep into ballgames, as he finished third in 120-plus pitch appearances, behind Jim Leyland and Mike Scioscia. Matheny has a talented roster, so letting that talent dictate the game isn't a bad idea.

Prediction
This is a tough one. It's as hard to go against the Dodgers rotation as it is to bet against the Cardinals. Either way, we're probably looking at an extended series.

PECOTA Says
PECOTA has the Dodgers as overwhelming favorites in this series. The algorithm could be underselling the Cardinals' rookies, so St. Louis fans needn't panic yet.

I'm not sure I agree. If you think the past 300 PA's are the best indicator of a player's talent, then sure, Hanley Ramirez is the most elite player on both teams, and Puig and Holliday would finish in a dead heat. But if you think the last 500-1000 PA's are a better indicator of talent, then the Cardinals actually have MORE top-end hitting talent than the Dodgers (with Molina, Holliday, Beltran, and Carpenter trumping Ramirez, Puig, and whomever else you'd like to put up there for the Dodgers).

Okay, I'll grant you that Ramirez is probably the most devastating hitter on either team, but you could make a pretty compelling case that the Cards have 4 of the next 5 top hitters on either team. Hence the confusion about the Cards lacking the elite top-end hitting that the Dodgers supposedly have.

Yeah I didn't get the "more top end elite talent" on the Dodgers comment. Cardinals have a good 4 hitters better than Ramirez over the course of 2 years, and Puig (But it's hard to count him since he's only played half a season, so that's not entirely comparable)