On Big Men :: Colin McGowan

Nearly every team that has competed for a championship in the last decade has controlled the paint. Tyson Chandler anchored the 2010-11 Mavericks’ defense. Orlando, who reached the Eastern Conference Finals in 2009-10 and the NBA Finals in 2008-09, have Dwight Howard. In the early part of the decade, the Lakers had Shaq; now they have Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum, and Lamar Odom. Until the Jeff Green Trade, Kendrick Perkins and Kevin Garnett were the backbone of the Celtics’ vaunted defense. There’s a reason Hubie Brown inflates like a canary’s chest when he talks about “the painted area.”

Here’s a list of the starting centers for both NBA Finals teams over the past decade:

Tyson Chandler (Mavericks) and Joel Anthony (Heat) in 2011

Andrew Bynum (Lakers) and Kendrick Perkins (Celtics) in 2010

Andrew Bynum (Lakers) and Dwight Howard (Magic) in 2009

Pau Gasol (Lakers) and Kendrick Perkins (Celtics) in 2008

Fabricio Oberto (Spurs) and Zydrunas Ilgauskas (Cavaliers) in 2007

Shaquille O’Neal (Heat) and Erick Dampier (Mavericks) in 2006

Nazr Mohammed (Spurs) and Ben Wallace (Pistons) in 2005

Ben Wallace (Pistons) and Shaquille O’Neal (Lakers) in 2004

David Robinson (Spurs) and Jason Collins (Nets) in 2003

Shaquille O’Neal (Lakers) and Jason Collins (Nets) in 2002

The list is misleading in a couple places. Tim Duncan played a lot of minutes at center for those Spurs teams, and Andrew Bynum only played about 20 MPG for the Lakers in 2009, but the list largely represents who each team’s interior presence was during their championship run. With a few exceptions, the guys listed above are efficient players on the offensive end. Players like Shaq or Gasol are incredibly efficient due to their tremendous post-up games, but most of these players (Chandler and Perkins in particular) are efficient because they bust their butts on the offensive glass, convert put-backs, and flush the ball when a teammate hits them with a good pass. On the defensive end, nearly all of the above players are difference-makers due to their shot-blocking ability (Howard, Bynum), ability to guard the other team’s best post player one-on-one (Perkins, Anthony, even Collins), and/or relentless activity levels (Chandler, Oberto, Wallace). And nearly everyone on this list is a good to great rebounder on both ends of the floor, with my highest compliments to Pau Gasol and Tyson Chandler, who are masters at tipping offensive rebounds to teammates.

You’ll also notice, if you swap Tim Duncan in for the two Spurs centers in 2005 and 2007 (neither of whom played more than 23 MPG during the playoffs), the team with the better center has won eight of the last ten championships. Not all of those center matchups are a clash of titans (David Robinson vs. Jason Collins is a deceptively irrelevant because Robinson reeked of embalming fluid by the 2003 Finals), but most of them were crucial in their own way, even when they weren’t the key matchup in the series. LeBron’s struggles aside, if Joel Anthony plays Tyson Chandler to a standstill, Miami hoists the Larry O’Brien Trophy, and the world is spared a million blustery proclamations about how Dallas won a championship “the right way.”

This pseudo-analysis (I’m conceding that stat nerds might want to hit me right now) reveals a couple of problems with Tristan Thompson. He does a lot of things that the centers above do (block shots, get offensive rebounds, work hard on both ends of the floor), but he’s 6’9”. This might prove Thompson’s fatal flaw. Were he a few inches taller, his game wouldn’t need nearly as much work. A Tristan Thompson standing 6’11” would need to learn how to box out better on defense, shoot free throws at a capable clip, and maybe hit the weight room. If he developed a post-up or face-up game or a 16-footer, he would be considered one of the best four or five centers in the league.

But 6’9” Thompson needs that 16-footer just to be an effective offensive player, and, by extension, not considered a bust. Because centers don’t score prodigiously. During the 2010-11 NBA season, only two centers averaged more than 16 points per game: Dwight Howard and Brook Lopez. By contrast, 16 power forwards scored at least 16 points per game. Centers defend and pick up garbage buckets, but power forwards need to have a more polished offensive game. This makes sense because if a team possesses a starting PF/C tandem that averages, say, 21 points per game, it places a tremendous burden on the rest of the team’s starters—players who are more likely to rely on jumpers and whose games are less efficient by definition. Thompson needs to develop offensively because it’s difficult to envision a Cavalier starting lineup that features three Kevin Martin-like perimeter scorers. Upon that jumper (and face-up game? Has he mentioned a face-up game? He should develop a face-up game!) rests his having any semblance of an offensive game, and, by extension, the Cavs being worth a damn.

So, the Cavs drafted a super-athletic 6’9” guy with a center’s game. Which would be intriguing at #8 or understandable if they did not have the option of drafting a 7-footer with a center’s game. It has been written by others (cheers, Kevin), but I find it baffling that the Cavaliers, when confronted with the choice of selecting either: A.) the 7-footer who could become Euro Joakim Noah or B.) the athletic power forward with no offensive game who could become Tyrus Thomas if Tyrus Thomas was, like, good, they chose the power forward. One paradigm is definitely a cog in a championship squad; the other paradigm is… well, since Tyrus Thomas is sort of horrible, we have no idea.

Which is why Chris Grant will be serenaded with Pritchardian praise if the young Canadian-turned-Texan-turned-Clevelander pans out. If Thompson is posting some sublime, bizarre stat-lines in five years, Grant will have carved his name into Conventional Wisdom’s wrinkly backside. I’m all for it in theory. The Who Needs Positions? Revolution, for example, is alluring to me as someone who would like to see the Laws of What Works in Basketball bend and warp beneath the scorching heat of talent and athleticism. So, Actually Good Tyrus Thomas is fascinating to me. But I’m a coward at heart; in the interim I’ll be perplexedly pacing around my kitchen, mumbling something about how much I love Tyson Chandler.

23 Responses to “On Big Men :: Colin McGowan”

I get what your saying about what PFs do and what Cs do on offense, but those are old ideas about what players are supposed to do at their position. If we were to pair Thompson with a C with an array of offensive moves and an jumpshot, for example Andrea Bargnani, Thompson wouldn’t necessarily have to develop all those offensive moves to be a good pick, although it would sure be nice of course.

If it makes people feel better, Sam Presti was slammed for picking Russell Westbrook at #4 when he hadn’t displayed skills normally associated with PGs in college. He has turned out OK. Lets not rush to judgment just yet.

Question for the Jonas fans: I admit I have not followed this issue as much as others, but I think (from what I have read) that the allure of Jonas is based mostly on his statistics in the Euroleague this year. When those stats are inflated to 36 mins per game, they are incredible (especially his rates). Given that the Euroleague is the 2nd best league behind the NBA, and he is only 19, he is a huge prospect.

So here is the question: Does anyone know if numbers from Euroleague tend to translate to the NBA differently across different positions. For example, are Euroleague Centers more/less likely to continue their Euroleague production in the NBA than Euro players at other positions? The reason I ask is because, when I watch Jonas with the naked eye, he looks, quite frankly, like a lurp who is dominating inferior athletes. In the NBA, where big men are more athletic, he looks like someone who could get destroyed. That said, I acknowledge that his stats are impressive, and that the Euroleague is legit…. So my eyes and my brain are telling me two different tings.

One way to reconcile the two stories is the following: The Euroleague features quicker, smarter players who are less athletic than NBA players. Players who succeed in the Euroleague by being more physically dominant are less likely to translate their success to the NBA than players who succeed in the Euroleague by being “skillfully” dominant because the source of their domination will not carry over. Such a theory would predict that big men who dominate in the Euroleague have a tougher time adapting to the NBA, whereas skill players don’t. Has anyone ever looked into this? Anyone buying it?

Colin: I’ve wondered the same thing. If Valanciunas is projected to be similar to Noah, why would anyone pass on that? We already have a one dimensional PF. I think for TT to be a success he must develop into Serge Ibaka.

Most teams have a “hustle” center who gets rebounds and blocks while pairing him with a scoring PF. Although it is very possible to change from that formula, it is the most common combination. We can be successful with a shutdown defender at PF, especially one like TT who has the potential to guard larger SFs. As long as the center can spread the floor, there shouldn’t be much of an issue. The worst thing you can do is have two guys on the floor like Samardo Samuels and JJ Hickson clogging up the paint.

@Bryan: I remember seeing Valanciunas’ numbers translated to comparable NCAA stats. It ended up being close to 12 pts-15 reb-3 bks per 36 mins. Plus, he was considered one of the more physical Euros in recent memory.

Grant is definitely taking a different approach in building a team. It will be harder to find complementary pieces for TT than Hickson but not impossible. Now we just sit back and enjoy the ride. At least if we lose we get a higher draft pick.

His height hardly matters when he jumps like a freak. Did you see that sports science video? He was jumping 2 ft above the rim.

TT is an athlete, seems like a serious hustler with a lot of energy and a great D game. He’s also got a good personality that fits. His O game needs work but I assume that the Cavs think they can sort that because of what else he brings.

I wanted JV too – have you seen his FT stats – but let’s give him a couple of seasons before we write off TT.

It was a weak draft and, based on projections, I think I’d rather have a Tyrus Thomas over a Bierdrins if that’s what’s available at 4th pick.

Bryan,
Here is some random information that may or may not help answer your question.

Across all 61 of Valanciunas’ games this year, he averaged 19 points per 36 minutes (pp36), 13 rp36, 2.2 bp36 and shot 68% from the field and 80% from the ft line. In his 15 Euroleague games, his PER was 26. He played the full season as an 18 year old. These numbers are definitely better than fellow first rounders Jan Vesely and Donata Motiejunas, who both played their European seasons at 20 years old. The numbers are also much better than Darko Milicic as a teenager in Europe.

Two NBA rookies this year were:

Omer Asik – In 2009 – 2010 in Europe per 36 minutes (23 year old), Asik averaged 17.1 p, 10.5 r and 2.6 b with 63% fgs. In 7 Euroleague games, his PER was 15.5. In 2010 – 2011 in the NBA per 36 minutes, he averaged 8.3 p, 11.1 r, 2.0 b, and 55% fg. His PER was only 11.8 however his defensive rating was 97 points per 100 possessions (NBA average = 104.5) and the Bulls were 9.9 points per 100 defensive possessions better with him on the court. To summarize, his offense was worse in the NBA however his rebounding and defense translated very well.

Semih Erden – In 2009 -2010 in Europe per 36 minutes (23 years old, for all 52 games), Erden averaged 13.5 p, 8.9 r, 1.1 b and shot 60%. His PER is 10 Euroleague games was 10.5. In 2010 – 2011 in the NBA per 36 minutes (mostly with Boston), Erden averaged 9.9 p, 7.1 r, 1.5 b with 55% shooting. His PER was 10.3 and his defensive rating was 101 with Boston being 2.6 points per 100 possessions worse defensively with him on the court. Technically Erden was never very good in Europe. His stats dropped slightly going from Europe to the NBA, but it appears his defense was passable in the NBA.

Basically at 5 years younger, Valanciunas was more productive than either Asik or Erden in European basketball. Both Asik and Erden were not fully able to translate their production from Euro to NBA (as expected), however both performed reasonably similar to their Euro stats.

Regarding Jonas looking like a “lurp”, I looked at several NBA big men who came straight from high school. I’ve used the age 19 season for each of these players, because Garnett and Chandler started in the NBA at 19; Bynum and O’Neal didn’t play much in the NBA until 19. So each of these numbers is from the equivalent of Valanciunas’ season next year.

Chandler – PER = 13. Defensive rating = 105, 2nd worst of career (his next season at age 20 was his worst defensive rating).

Garnett – PER = 15.8. D-rating = 107. Worst of his career and 8 points per 100 possesions worse than his career average.

Bynum – PER = 15.4. D-rating = 105, 2nd worst of career

Jermaine O’Neal – PER = 12.7. His D-rating was consistent with his career, but O’Neal did not have an above average PER until his 5th season in the league at age 22.

I’m not trying to compare Valanciunas to these players, just trying to point out that there are growing pains in playing center as a teenager in competitive professional leagues. Each had an average to below average PER at age 19 and most underperformed defensively. I haven’t seen anything to not make me think that:

1. Valanciunas’ age 18 European production is very impressive
2. Europeans stats vaguely translate to the NBA. Obviously decreased effectiveness should be expected, but nothing drastic.
3. Valanciunas’ occassional struggles on defense may be typical for 18 – 19 year old big men playing in competitive professional leagues.

I feel like there must be a different opinion in the Cavs’ front office re: JV’s likelihood of success in the NBA. As to TT, I would see him fitting in more like Kirelinko in his prime, being that disruptive front-court force who is athletic enough to deal with the perimeter as well.

Problem is a)Jazz never seriously contended for a title with him and b) Jazz had Okur at center to balance out the need for scoring

At the end of the day, I think this speaks to the lack of faith in Hickson, and maybe the Cavs’ are scouting centers in the 2011-12 lottery? ‘Cause I think that’s where they end up, since even dramatic improvement is unlikely to land a playoff spot

P.S. – will Varajeo really be part of the Cavs’ future? I love the guy’s game, but he is not a good fit for a rebuilding team, it’ll be at leats 2 years before Cavs are ready for primetime (i.e., realistic shot of getting out of 1st round) and Andy would really produce for a contender. Any trades people like? Maybe Varaejoa to Nets for Lopez in some sort of deal? He would fit realy well with Deron Williams & could probably be a great 6th man/PF if the Nets are lucky enough to land Dwight

I forgot to mention that an average NBA team plays about 5 possessions per 36 minutes (8%) faster than an average European team. This shouldn’t affect PER comparisons from league to league, but does affect per minute comparisons slightly. Equivalent NBA per possession stats should be reduced by 8%.

Mark,
The problem is, as of right now, there are no center prospects worthy of taking in the lottery next year. Of course, that could change over the course of the college/euro season, but none will be picked as high as enes or JV. Next years draft is loaded, but mostly at the 2 and 3 positions (which, by the way, might be bigger needs than center). There will most likely be no pg’s as good as kyrie irving, and no center as good as kanter/JV. Again, all of this can change in one year, but it is not likely.

Thompson and Hickson (if he’s still around. If not any other offensive minded PF/C.) can play together. If Hickson could pull off playing center against 95 percent of the teams in the NBA (which he did reasonably well last year) with zero defensive instincts, Thompson certainly can.

If Tristan Thompson doesn’t work out, it will have almost nothing to do with him being “only” 6’9. As I said on Kevins articles, I too wanted JV, but two basketball minds that I respect much more than my own or anyones here, Hollinger and that Cavs collective basketball mind, rate Thompson the better prospect. In the short term that’s way more than enough for me to not cry about not getting the player I wanted. In the long-term we will see if people who are paid very well to predict these things know more than us fans on this particular occasion.

Josh,
Regarding Hollinger…I certainly respect Hollinger’s basketball mind more than ours, but he advises to take his Draft Rater as a helpful tool, not as his most definitive work. He started this year’s Draft Rater article with “It’s a fools errand, but lets do it anyways.”

About highly rated big men he says (paraphrased, but close): “the big guys…some have become superstars, others have merely been decent players. A couple with high ratings haven’t been able to play at all.” One reason is due to the players attitudes however he also includes reasons such as “stats translate better for (high performing college) perimeter players” and “historically power forwards have had the easiest time racking up a solid PER”.

I’m not trying to discredit John Hollinger, but only pointing out that even he views his Draft Rater as more helpful than definitive.

My point is not that it is defenitive. My point is simply that it has a very strong track record (relatively speaking, the draft is very hard to predict for everyone) and that between his rating and the Cavs collective rating, I trust that info much more than I trust ours. Also, if you look at the past big men ratings at TT’s level, I believe there has been basically one bust, wihch is Sweetney, and that was clearly due to weight/attitude issues, not ability.

I’m not saying Hollingers ratings should be an end all to this debate. That would be silly. I’m just saying I believe that it is much stronger evidence than JV’s per 36 min numbers while playing 15 min again and his under 18 numbers. If three years from now Johan is a better player at a more premium position that Tristan, I’ll be the first to rip the Cavs. In the meantime I think the stronger evidence supports the Cavs decision, and I think that is largely being ignored in favor of what fans wanted to happen.

I was as surprised as anyone about picking TT instead of JV. There were reports prior to the draft that the Cavs might go that direction with or without Kanter being on the board. I’m not sure if it was because of the JV buyout situation that pushed them more this direction (I hope/suspect not) or if it was because TT was just that good in workouts. I’m still under the impressions/assumption that there is a trade in the works that involves maybe Andy/JJ and TPE for Marc Gasol – maybe even Pau (less likely but there have been roumurs).

Bottom line, I think it’s too early to judge this pick until after all trades are made and ofcourse until after both TT and JV have played in the league a few years and we can compare their stats. We know that Grant et.al. know everything we know about the players and then they know a bunch more on top of it including how they perfromed in workouts, personality fits with the team, skillset fit with the direction the team is goint etc.

So, just like prior to the draft, we’ll have to wait and see what happens and then use hindsight as the final measure.

I’m hoping that TT can be a player a bit like Nene, maybe with better defensive ability, though not a C and 2-in shorter. Energy, athleticism, high FG%, finishing like a demon at the rim.

I would be higher on JV if I saw lots of promising true Centers in the league. Used to be that you had to have somebody to go against Shaq, or Duncan. Now, that’s not really the case. Only Howard is a dominating C, and he plays for a team that can be beaten other ways. Give me a front line with some athletic 6-9 and 6-10 guys and that can be a more versatile and effective solution for the way the game is played today. We’re building something like that — if TT pans out.

TT can help the club more ways than JV, potentially, as he’ll run the break better, be able to defend better and more types of players (due to his speed) than JV, and they know him better now and will be able to develop him sooner with fewer obstacles than JV. I’m sold.

With TT (or even if we had selected JV) this team’s priority is now to find really, really good 2-way players at the wing positions – guys you run your offense thru, and guys who can guard.

As much as I like these players, by the end of next season I would like to see Andy, jj, and jamison all on a different teams roster. Some people would like the cavs to keep at least one of them but I just dont see how thats possible. Antawn is obviously too old and is on a valuable expiring contract, Verajeo is my favorite of the 3, but he will be about 35 years old when we are serious contenders and will have no trade value, which he has a lot of right now. And finally, hickson is a good young player, but he will demand a contract next year that we will not give him and we’ll than lose him for nothing.

All the talk about Valanciunas won’t mean anything if the kid doesn’t add some weight. If he’s still skinny when he comes over, he’ll get dominated in the NBA…and the Thompson pick will reek of genius.

Thanks Kevin. JV’s PER in Euroleague is pretty insane. There really are no Euro comparables of him in the current NBA. Erden and Asik are as close as we can get, but they also were not nearly as prolific as JV.

Vesus,
I wish there was more I could say about Tristan Thompson from my “glass half full” perspective. For the NBA, it’s easy to access opponent’s PER, defensive rating, adjusted + / -, defensive per possession on-court / off-court, etc. I would love to have this information for Thompson and be able to say, “Tristan Thompson was dominant defensively”. I don’t have those numbers, but obviously the Cavs do (plus alot of other information).

So…It’s alot easier to discuss Valanciunas glowingly. Remember that the only video you’ve seen of him is as a 17 or 18 year old, so he’s still probably going to add bulk. At the recent Adidas Eurocamp, he measured at 7′ and 245 lbs. That actually sounds alot like an NBA center’s size.

He’s often compared to Andris Biedrins, who is 7′ – 240 lbs. They are similar in that they both finish around the basket and rebound very effectively. When Baron Davis was his point guard, Biedrins was blossoming into a highly efficient finishing and rebounding big man. The transition to Monta Ellis and Steph Curry as guards has stymied that a little. Also the spirit breaking proposition of being the center on a team with zero commitment to defense surely hasn’t helped him much.

Anyways Biedrins is limited by not defending the post well and by not having any offense away from the basket. This is probably Valanciunas’ floor, except Valanciunas shoots 80% on ft’s and Biedrins shoots 50%. If Valanciunas can add another 10 lbs (up to 255 lbs) and show that his free throw shooting translates to an 18 footer, Valanciunas can be a top 3 center in the league.

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