Journalist Advises How To Rein In A Bearish Putin

Since protesters spilled into Kiev’s Independence Square last November, events in Ukraine have unfolded at a dizzying pace.

Hardly three months after demonstrations started, Viktor Yanukovych, Ukraine's erstwhile president, was ousted on Feb. 22. Less than a week later, Russian troops took control of airports and military bases in Crimea, in the southern part of Ukraine. Observers might rightly complain of whiplash.

Looming over these rapidly unfolding events is Russian President Vladimir Putin, who seems to be pushing his southern neighbor to the brink of a civil war while thumbing his nose at the West and international negotiators.

The question on many people’s mind is: What is Putin’s aim in all of this? Why would he foment a war on Russia’s southern border? Is Crimea really the prize he seeks? Or is he building a bulwark against what he perceives as Western influence in Ukraine?

According to former NPR Moscow correspondent Gregory Feifer, Putin doesn’t really believe the West was behind the ouster of the pro-Russian Yanukovych, but maintains that story to suit his own aims.

Westerners tend to find Russians mysterious, said Feifer.

“We can’t understand why, for example, the Kremlin wants to direct missiles at Western Europe, or why Russia would want to foment civil war in Ukraine … which doesn’t seem to be good for Russia,” he said.

While Putin’s methods might strike many as reckless, they conform to a logic embedded in his country’s history. Acting like a tough guy abroad is good for Putin’s popularity at home, said Feifer.

“His model of foreign policy is very much the Soviet one. He believes to be respected in the world, you have to be feared and loathed,” he said.

There’s a full-scale propaganda campaign going on in Russia, said Feifer, not unlike the one he observed during Russia’s 2008 invasion of Georgia.

“According to Russian state television, this is an American-backed plot to control Ukraine and to essentially throw the Russian government out of power,” he said.

The story that Putin sells to his people is that the U.S. wants to undermine his rule, get rid of his government and plunder Russia’s natural resources, especially its vast mineral and gas wealth.

Pushing Ukraine into a bloody civil war isn't in Russia’s interest, but it is in Putin’s because it makes him look tough, said Feifer.

“What would be in Russia’s interest would be a prosperous, stable, independent Ukraine that would be an ally and trading partner,” he said, adding that instead, Russia has repeatedly attempted to undermine Ukraine’s independence and its inclination to join the European Union.

According to Feifer, Putin would like to see Ukraine join a so-called “Eurasian Union,” which would -- to some degree -- resurrect the Soviet Union. That organization's prime goal would be to oppose Western organizations like the European Union and NATO.

“For Putin, having the Ukraine turn its back on Russia and join the West is less preferable than the county erupting into civil war,” he said.

Thus, Putin would rather have the country split apart than join the West. In Russia, said Feifer, Putin is very much the puppet master. By turning the Russian Parliament into a rubbers-stamp body that backs his legislation, keeping Russia’s businessmen in his pocket and controlling the corrupt court system top-down from the Kremlin, Putin can pretty much do anything unopposed.

But, how does Putin get away with it? Feifer, whose mother is Russian, said he doesn't agree with the conventional wisdom that Putin has made a social contract with his people that as long as living standards rise, the Kremlin is free to do as it likes.

“I believe the real glue that attaches Putin to the people is corruption,” he said, adding that corruption is all-pervasive in Russia. Indeed, “It is the system," he said.

Whether a person is a driver who has to pay off traffic police or the owner of a corner store who has to pay off building, health and fire safety inspectors, everyone has a stake in the system, said Feifer. This enables the authorities to coerce anyone because they can pretty much prosecute anybody.

“It’s very difficult not to be corrupt in Russia," he said. "You won’t get very far without it.”

The recent Sochi Olympic Games, which were the most expensive ever at $50 billion, offered a high-profile example of a problem that pervades all levels of Russian society.

“We know that $7 billion in contracts went to companies connected to one man, who happened to be Putin’s childhood friend and judo partner,” Feifer notes.

The pervasive corruption is another reason that Putin tries to distract the public from the country’s great problems, according to Feifer.

“By calling the U.S. Russia’s no. 1 foe and invading Crimea, he is projecting himself as a restorer (of) Russia’s greatness on the world stage,” he said.

If Western leaders don’t unify to isolate Russia diplomatically and impose sanctions, Feifer believes that might give Putin a green light to do it again. He calls for using all available peaceful means, including expelling Russia from the G8, freezing the assets and imposing visa restrictions on officials and businessmen close to the Kremlin, restricting natural gas imports from Gazprom, and even boycotting Russia vodka.

“We see a crisis in Ukraine. The Russians -- at least the Kremlin -- see the country’s moments in the Sun,” said Feifer. “Putin will let it drag on, saying he wants to reach a political settlement as we do. If we take him at his word, we’re making a big mistake.”

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