He's bullish about Divergent as a likely franchise for Lionsgate, though with a performance below that of The Hunger Games.

The bottom line is that Lionsgate needs new franchises to follow The Hunger Games if it hopes to maintain its current valuation and investor confidence.

"We believe it is hard to justify a higher valuation premium relative to the overall media group than Lionsgate already enjoys given uncertainty about long-term earnings power," Creutz said in his research note.