Gov. Scott's fuzzy math

January 9, 2013

We keep hearing Gov. Rick Scott has softened his stance against Obamacare and is open to helping uninsured Floridians gain access to affordable health care, while keeping costs affordable for businesses, taxpayers and everyone else.

In November, after President Obama won re-election, the governor said of health insurance reform: "The election is over and President Obama won. I'm responsible for the families of Florida … If I can get to yes, I want to get to yes."

And Monday, after meeting with U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius, he said he had a "great conversation" and a "hopefully productive meeting" about how to improve health care costs, quality and access.

But things aren't always as they appear.

First, the governor missed last month's deadline for agreeing to create a state health insurance exchange that would make it easy for Floridians to compare the costs and benefits of health insurance plans offered here. Instead, he's letting the federal government do the work for him.

Now we learn the governor has inflated the projected costs of covering another 1.2 million Floridians under Medicaid. Of Florida's 4 million uninsured, these are the folks who live just above the poverty line.

Scott says it will cost $63 billion to expand Florida Medicaid over 10 years, and the state will have to pay $26 billion of that.

But as Health News Florida reported Tuesday, Scott knows his number is wrong. In a series of emails obtained by the website, legislative analysts warned the governor that his number was way off — by a factor of three.

In August, the Legislature's Office of Economic and Demographic Research said the proposed Medicaid expansion would cost the state $8 billion over 10 years.

Even then, the legislature's estimate could be high because it fails to account for possible savings from other programs and taxing districts now set up to care for the uninsured.

The new law says if Florida expands its Medicaid rolls, the federal government will pay 100 percent of the costs for three years. The federal share would taper to 90 percent by 2020 and stay there.

But the governor apparently doesn't believe the federal government will follow the law.

The governor is entitled to his opinion, but is he entitled to his own facts? Or is it possible that, as he did in rejecting $2 billion for a high-speed rail line and millions more to implement health insurance exchanges, he will again reject Florida's share and send our money to other states?

Florida families are struggling. Some of us have friends and family members who are dying because they can't afford health care. All of us are paying higher health insurance premiums or taxes so the poor can get treated at emergency rooms or safety net hospitals.

We deserve better.

Besides helping our neighbors, the Florida Center for Fiscal and Economic Policy says expanding Medicaid would bring more than $20 billion to Florida over the next decade.

Jim Zingale, an official with the Safety Net Hospital Alliance of Florida, told the Times: "This is going to be one of the largest economic booms in the state."