Ukraine: Yushchenko Headed For Defeat In Parliamentary Elections

Viktor Yushchenko voting on March 26 (Ukrinform)
President Viktor Yushchenko looks headed for a remarkable defeat in Ukraine's first parliamentary elections since the Orange Revolution just over a year ago. Independently conducted exit polls issued shortly after the polling stations closed at 10 p.m. put his Our Ukraine bloc in third place. The pro-Russian Party of Regions looks almost certain to take first place but will fall well short of a majority. Forty-five parties contested the election but polls suggest that only five of them will clear the 3 percent barrier needed to win a place in Ukraine's 450-set Verkhovna Rada.

PRAGUE, March 26, 2006 (RFE/RL) -- The negotiations are already underway to form a coalition government -- now the only conceivable outcomeof an election that has struck a severe blow to the dreams of theOrange Revolution.

Supreme National Security Council Secretary Anatoliy Kinakh appeared tohint today that President Yushchenko is looking to strike a deal withhis erstwhile ally and co-leader of the Orange Revolution, YuliyaTymoshenko. The exit polls indicate that she has edged Yushchenko'sparty for second place.

"Consultations are constantly under way but we categorically rejectconsultations and the formation of coalitions on the basis of primitivedivision of posts," Kinakh said. "It's very important for us to uniteprograms, ideology, and methods, which will make it possible tostrengthen the irreversible development of Ukraine as a democraticstate based on the rule of law."

That would appear to rule out a deal with the winning Party of Regions.It is pro-Russian and led by the man Yushchenko defeated in thebitterly contested presidential election of late 2004.

Viktor Yanukovych opposes many of the pro-Western reforms supported bythe leader of the Orange Revolution and would seek to turn Ukraine backtoward Moscow.

Fair Vote An Achievement

Yushchenko hailed the vote as the most fair and democratic ever held inUkraine and called it one of the country's biggest achievements inrecent years.

The head of the electoral monitoring mission from Organization forSecurity and Cooperation in Europe, Christian Strohal, appeared toagree.

"I think what we can say is that we have been welcomed here andreceived extremely frankly and with open arms and we have come herewith an equally open mind and we see this observer mission as aconsolidation of democracy in the Ukraine," Strohal said.

But Taras Chornovil, spokesman for the Party of Regions, was not sosure. He told RFE/RL's Ukrainian Service that the lines of voters inthe eastern part of the country, which provides the bedrock of hisparty's support, were longer than elsewhere and that the government haddeliberately enlarged the voting districts.

"The lines are a catastrophe. I read on the Internet that some lines inDonetsk Oblast had a 40-minute waiting period," he said. "I called myfriends and they told me that the lines are three-four hours long. InKyiv, they average 40 minutes. In the morning there were no lines butnow they are there. It is a problem."

The irony of Chornovil's complaint will be lost on no one in Ukraine.Blatant falsification of the vote by Yanukovych, now the leader of theParty of Regions, led to the nullification of the presidential electionin December 2004 and the rerun that ended in the triumph of the OrangeRevolution.

But today's vote shows just how dramatically popular disillusionmentwith Yushchenko's government has eaten into his support. Opinion pollshave repeatedly shown that people are angered by the sharp slowdown ineconomic growth and the infighting between the leaders of the OrangeRevolution.

Yushchenko dismissed Tymoshenko as prime minister in September lastyear, blaming her for Ukraine's floundering economic performance. Nowhe may have little choice but to ask her to return.

If Yushchenko is to retain control of a parliament whose powers aresoon to be enlarged at the presidency's expense, he will have to makesome hard choices. Whatever balance of forces takes shape in the comingweeks, Yushchenko most likely will emerge much weakened.

RFE/RL's Election Coverage

Click on the image for background and archived articles about Ukraine's March 26 elections.

Click on the image to see RFE/RL's coverage of the Ukrainian elections in Ukrainian.

Click on the image to view a photo gallery of some of the key players in the Ukrainian elections.