Saturday, 1 November 2008

I'm waiting for my bus to the match...

...so I'm bored and writing this little blog.

I won’t be betting on this match, because I don’t bet on Sheffield United. Every time I do, the footballing gods conspire to ensure United pick up as few points as possible, coupled with me losing my bet. It is however worth pointing out some facts to you chaps, who may wish to have a punt.

Everything points to this game being very close indeed. Last season’s fixtures were both 1-0, United winning away and the Pilgrims winning at the Lane. Plymouth have scored one goal in each of their last four games, form which has seen them win two and lose two. They have scored eight goals away from home, in seven matches, at just over a goal a game.

United’s home form is excellent; we’ve won four and drawn three, unbeaten in seven, conceding just two goals. We are struggling to score though, we’ve only scored ten goals in those home games, 16 in 14 home and away and have scored just once in our last three matches. In addition, Plymouth are quite a physical side and although we have no problem beating passing, footballing sides (Bristol City 3-0, QPR 3-0, Doncaster Rovers 0-2) we struggle against the bigger sides. Add to that the fact that Plymouth are just a point behind us in the league and you should be able to see where I’m coming from about how tight this game looks to be on paper.

Now, I believe we’ve got enough to beat them. We may have scored once in three matches, a scrambled goal by a centre half, but our last two homes matches saw us create more chances than any other game in the season and away to Bristol City, it was only 0-0 because both keepers had fantastic games. We are creating chances and our home form is very good. It also helps that their form is WLWLW, it should be quite obvious what the next one in the sequence should be! They also travelled to Sheffield to play the filth on Tuesday; I don’t know if they’ve stayed here all week or if they went home, to come back, to go home again; either way, that has to be mentally and probably physically draining. Travelling is a bitch, as is staying away from home, I can vouch for both of these!

We’re best price 4/5 (BetFred and many others) to win and it’s also best price 4/5 to be under 2.5 goals (BetFred). I'm not sure I can take either of those prices, perhaps the win, but I'd still want a bit more. Maybe you could double it up, I dunno. The 1-1 draw is widely available at 6/1, as is United 1-0. You can get 15/2 about a 2/1 scoreline from Blue Square. As I said, I refuse to bet on United games nowadays but if you made me, I’d be ploughing into the 6/1 for a 1-0 win to the mighty red and white wizards.

1 comment:

Did anyone back anything, or even include us in a multi? Under 2.5 and United to win were both good and I thoguht my score prediction was goign to be good too. A Beattie penalty and an excellent free kick from the same fella gave us a 2-0 and as per usual, we were rock solid at the back and created enough chances to win three or four matches! One of these days, someone is going to get a right good hiding at Bramall Lane.