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The Centre

The Scottish referendum of 2014 presented a unique opportunity to examine the process of constitutional change and its impact on institutions, relationships, behaviour and the policy process. This major interdisciplinary project examines the options for, and implications of, constitutional change in Scotland.

Beginning in October 2013, this 2-year project contributes to the evidence base for the 2014 referendum, and the implications of the result. In the longer term, it will build a multi-institutional research centre which creates capacity for interdisciplinary work on the social, economic and political challenges facing Scotland, irrespective of the outcome of the referendum.

Relationships beyond Scotland v

The External Dimension of Scottish Devolution

In the run-up to the independence referendum, this project led research exploring the legal and political challenges and opportunities which would face an independent Scotland vis-à-vis its relationship with the European Union. In light of the NO vote, the project has shifted attention to examine whether and how Scotland, embedded within the UK, can have an enhanced presence in international affairs. The project has four dimensions: (i) the representation of Scotland within the EU, (ii) the representation of Scotland in other international fora on devolved matters, and (iii) the capacity of the Scottish Government to have enhanced influence over domestic EU policy-making; and (iv) the extent to which new and proposed devolved powers are shaped or constrained by EU policy and law.

Interdependence and Intergovernmental Relations within the UK

In the CCC’s first year, this project examined the interdependencies with the UK and the EU within the context of independence. In our second year, we are examining the opportunities and constraints facing devolved Scotland in managing interdependencies, with a particular emphasis upon intergovernmental relations. This includes both Scottish-UK bilateral relations and multi-lateral IGR across the UK. The project will examine (i) the current process, including mechanisms for managing shared or concurrent powers, (ii) the capacity for influencing central government policy as it relates to devolved competences, and (iii) the mechanisms for resolving disputes.

Defence, Security and Constitutional Change

This project addresses two themes. In advance of the referendum, we focused on the strategic opportunities and constraints which would face an independent Scotland in developing its defence and security policies and capabilities, drawing comparative examples with other small northern European states. This has generated a wealth of data, which we are continuing to examine and disseminate. The second theme, and the focus of the second year of the project, explores the mechanisms of intra-UK intergovernmental co-ordination that are necessary to respond effectively to the new security environment.

The Economy v

Taxation, Territorial Finance and Budgeting

In advance of the referendum, this project focused on currency options facing an independent Scotland, and the potential of and challenges posed by a sterling currency union, shedding light on a central theme in the referendum debate. In the aftermath of the referendum, the project is focused on analysing the new and proposed devolved fiscal powers for Scotland, including tax and borrowing powers, the operation and effects of the Barnett formula distortions in light of these new powers, and the impact of the post-Smith distribution of fiscal powers on the distributions of resources in the component parts of the UK.

Constitutional change and economic performance

This project builds upon on existing variants of the Fraser of Allander Institute (at Strathclyde University) Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to explore the impacts of further constitutional change on the economies of Scotland and the rest of the UK. The project extends the existing inter-regional Strathclyde model by: (i) improving the treatment of public expenditure and the modelling of tax and transfer payments; and (ii) incorporating increasing returns to scale in production and imperfect competition between firms. This model will be used to identify the impact of trade and competitiveness on the geographical polarization or dispersion of economic activity.

Governance and the Constitution v

Citizenship and the Constitution of Scotland

In advance of the referendum, this project focused on assessing the legal implications of independence and the development of a constitution for an independent Scotland. A core element examined public engagement in the process of constitutional reform, raising issues that remain pertinent to the post-referendum debate. The project is also examining citizenship and its associated rights, and considers how the UK’s changing relationship with the Council of Europe might impact on the devolved powers of the Scottish Parliament.

Constitutional Options and Policy-Making Capacity

This project addresses issues which required examination irrespective of the outcome of the referendum. The team has been exploring policy styles in relation to prevention policies (and a general shift toward outcomes-based measures of performance). They have developed a broad framework for examining the ‘Scottish policy style’ and are examining the narrative of a distinctive policy style against evidence of the policy process, in a series of interviews with officials in the Scottish Government, third sector and local government.

Constitutional Change in Comparative Perspective

This project examines the comparative dimension of constitutional change. It includes comparative analysis of autonomy and independence debates in other multi-level states, with a particular focus on Spain, Belgium and Canada, where there are ongoing and historic debates over the distribution of powers and movements for self-government in Catalonia, the Basque Country, Flanders and Quebec. We are also taking a broader comparative view to explore how multi-level dynamics develop in other countries, and how multi-level government and its challenges for public policy, the economy, and governing are confronted, in part to draw insights that may inform the broad processes of constitutional change underway in the UK in the wake of the 2014 referendum.

Future of Scotland v

Constitutional Change and Inter-generational Inequality

In advance of the referendum, this project focused on the fiscal context within which a transition to independence may have been made, and the challenges an independent Scotland would have had to confront to address socio-economic inequality. Devolved Scotland also faces fiscal challenges affecting the stated driving ambition of the new First Minister to reduce inequality and tackle poverty. We are applying inter-generational accounting principles to Scotland to examine inter-generational inequality, extending Lisenkova's existing multi-regional overlapping generations model developed for the UK into a two-region version (Scotland and rUK). The model was being developed to allow for different constitutional arrangements, and is now being adapted to fit the post-referendum, post-Smith environment.

Preventative Spending

This project evaluates the effectiveness and politics of preventative spend. This is leading to a cost-benefit framework, being constructed by Bell and Comerford, to evaluate the preventative spending initiatives of the current Scottish Government. This is complemented by the qualitative research of Cairney and St Denny. In the wake of the referendum, the project is focused on completing an extensive series of interviews with government officials in the Scottish and UK governments, relying on a ‘counterpart’ approach to identify relevant UK policymakers. This project runs together with Project 3.2 to examine ways in which policy-making systems might be adapted to favour preventative spending.

Political Behaviour v

Risk and the Referendum

This project aimed to capture the effects of risk aversion, identity and choice, multilevel understanding, and intergenerational questions in forming and explaining vote choice in the referendum. It involved conducting two online surveys, one at the beginning of the summer and one shortly after the referendum. These surveys sampled the same group of respondents, and so allowed us to chart how understanding of the issues, and attitudes to risk, were shaped by the referendum campaign. The project also involved two small n lab experiments with citizens to understand the extent to which correlations discovered in the surveys are causal and to test the path dependency of voter behaviour. This has generated a wealth of data, which we are continuing to analyse and disseminate.

Future of England survey

The Future of England Survey (FoES) was an additional work stream of the Centre on Constitutional Change to investigate English attitudes towards the political identity and constitutional governance of the Union’s most populous nation. It involved a survey of 3,705 adults in England, using some questions that were contrasted with parallel surveys in Wales and Scotland. An initial report, Taking England Seriously: The New English Politics, released in October, revealed the emergence of a new English identity which is reflected in a coherent set of political and social attitudes, including strong support for the principle of English Votes for English Laws (EVEL).

Public Attitudes on Devolution after the Referendum

This project involved conducting focus groups and an online survey in Scotland and England to explore public attitudes to the prospect of, and proposals for, further devolved powers. In focus groups and the surveys, we explored knowledge of the existing distribution of powers, the desirability, or otherwise, of specific new proposals for enhanced devolution, and the compromises (personal, inter-regional) citizens would be willing to make in relation to the extent of further powers, policy choices and political representation. This research began in October 2014 and will be analysed in the coming months.

Political Economy and Welfare v

Across all of the above projects, the analysis of the effects of constitutional change will inform, and be informed by, a study of the opportunities for, and constraints upon, social investment. This overlapping theme is just as relevant after the No vote, and especially in light of the new powers and responsibilities emerging from the Smith process. We have argued that neither independence nor union, in themselves, could underpin a social investment strategy. Rather, this would stem from the tax powers and competences Scottish governing institutions possess, their application and implementation within the policy process. Keating and Harvey examined this in their book, Small States in a Big World, which came out of Keating’s Future of the UK and Scotland fellowship.

Our ongoing work includes, among others, (i) work to operationalize the idea of social investment in the Scottish context, (ii) work on taxation options consistent with social investment, and (iii) expanding the work of Rummery to look at the potential of childcare as an economic investment strategy.

The Future of the UK and Scotland is a programme funded by the Economic and Social Research Council. It brings the best of UK social science to the debate about Scotland’s constitutional future and its implications for the rest of the UK.

That debate is focused in particular on the referendum question that will be posed on 18 September 2014: “Should Scotland be an independent country?”.

It is rare for voters to be presented with a question of such a fundamental character as whether or not to create a new state. One of the central aims of the Future of the UK and Scotland programme is to focus evidence and analysis from leading social scientists onto that question.

The programme will provide an authoritative and independent reference point for those looking for information and insights about the future of the UK and Scotland that stand aside from the politics of the referendum.

It will also carry out ground-breaking social science research. The referendum provides an unprecedented opportunity for social scientists to explore how all those involved - be it citizens, civil society organisations, businesses, political parties, referendum campaigns, governments and other public authorities, even other states - respond to such a fundamental issue, and to understand the implications it raises for them. We have commissioned a series of projects - individual research fellowships, a number of research grants, and a major research centre – designed to explore key issues in the debate and to work with all the various stakeholders, from public engagement activities to seminars with both the Scottish and the UK Governments.

This website will provide a record of what we do. But we also want it to be more than that. We aim to become a one-stop-shop for informed debate that can help voters come to a better informed judgement about their decision in the referendum. So our blog will not just report on our own research findings, but also provide a regular review of key developments in the debate and be a platform for others’ findings. And it will provide an events calendar which will be a ‘what’s on?’ guide covering both our own and other’s events, in Scotland and beyond.

In doing all this we will remain strictly neutral in the constitutional debate. Our findings will reflect evidence collected and analysed using rigorous social science methods, not political preferences. And we will engage that evidence on all sides: with the Yes Scotland and Better Together campaigns and with the UK and the Scottish Governments.