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Solid results of 4-2 for +2.5 units for public predictions for UFC 101 bring
the running total for my public picks since UFC 75 to 87-64 for
+35.545 units.

As usual, except where otherwise indicated, all lines below are current market lines from MMAjunkie.com’s recommended sportsbook, Bodog. It’s easy to open an account at Bodog; you can fund your Bodog account
with as little as $25 and bet as little as $1 on fights. Until you’ve
experienced the added excitement of betting on MMA, you really haven’t
watched MMA. Having your heart race when your fighter steps into the
cage – even if you’ve only got a few dollars in play – is a feeling
like none other. (But you should only wager you’d feel comfortable losing. Be sure to keep it fun.)

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for a lot of good discussion on upcoming MMA events from a variety of
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Now, onto the analysis and picks.

Randy Couture (-170) vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (+150)

At 46 years old, Randy Couture (16-9 MMA, 13-6 UFC) is a legend of the sport. Already a member of the UFC Hall of Fame, Couture displays decent standup skills with good head movement. He is most dangerous from the clinch, where he is equally likely to punish you with dirty boxing as he is to dump you to the ground. Once he has you down, Couture holds top position well and depends on ground-and-pound punishment rather than submissions.

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (31-5-1 MMA, 2-1 UFC) was widely regarded as one of MMA’s top heavyweights while competing against the likes of Josh Barnett and Fedor Emelianenko in PRIDE. However, he has looked less than stellar in his UFC career. Despite achieving a 2-1 record, “Big Nog” has looked slow and lethargic in each outing, each time absorbing a lot of punishment early in the fight. It’s important to point out right away that Nogueira is not nearly as deteriorated as he looked in the fight against Mir; Nog was suffering from the aftereffects of a serious staph infection that required hospitalization, and he also had a torn meniscus in that fight. He should not have been fighting at all that night, and to draw too much from that performance is a serious mistake for an MMA handicapper

Nogueira will have advantages in size and reach. The boxing game is closer to a wash than many are predicting, but Couture’s dirty boxing presents him a very significant advantage in striking from the clinch.

Nog has, without question, taken a huge amount of punishment over his career, and while he’s only 33 years old, it’s been well documented by a variety of fighters that absorbing tremendous amount of punishment is extremely detrimental to one’s longevity. Nogueira in his early career was more than happy to allow opponents to blast away on him from top position as he hunted for submissions from the bottom. This sort of long-term punishment is more than likely to be responsible for some of the difference we’ve witnessed in the discrepancy between Nogueira’s performances in PRIDE and those in the UFC. The larger reason for the discrepancy appears to be a significant reduction in Nogueira’s speed. Even in the footage I’ve seen of him in training camp at Black House in Los Angeles, “Big Nog” is slow and plodding on his feet, slow to strike, and displaying below-average head movement and defense. In slow sparring, Nogueira was regularly getting tagged on the chin and was slow to respond with strikes of his own.

I know I opened this section with an explanation of why you shouldn’t draw too much on Nogueira’s performance against Mir. That is still true. However, knowing that Nogueira was significantly injured and ill coming into that fight doesn’t mean that you should completely reverse the situation. Despite Couture being smaller and significantly older, I expect him to take this fight handily and believe it represents a great betting opportunity.

I expect Couture to have a significant edge in the standup game based on Nogueira’s apparent deterioration in speed and reaction time, and I also predict he’ll be able to use his wrestling skills to keep the fight standing, where he can execute that advantage to full effect. Nogueira has never displayed great takedowns in his career, and there is very little reason to think he can put Couture on his back. As such, the fight will take place on the feet either with Couture pressing Nogueira against the cage or with the two exchanging on their feet. In either aspect, Couture has a significant advantage.

For those thinking that Nogueira’s size advantage will give him a better chance in the clinch, look no farther back than Couture’s unsuccessful bid against Brock Lesnar. There, while Couture wasn’t able to control Lesnar against the cage at all, he still was able to very effectively put his opponent there in each round – and Lesnar is significantly bigger, significantly stronger and significantly faster than Nogueira.

In short, this is Couture’s fight to lose. Nogueira certainly has a chance to slap on a fight-ending submission if Couture ever makes a mistake (exposing his neck in the clinch would be the most likely case), and like any MMA fighter, he has a “puncher’s chance” of catching the aging Couture on the chin. None of those is a likely outcome, and given the 63% chance of him winning by the current betting line, I believe Couture to be an excellent bet and worthy of laying multiple units.

I recommended Thiago Silva (13-1 MMA, 4-1 UFC) when he was available at +185 via Twitter back in the end of June. The betting line has moved significantly, as I expected, with Silva now only available at +120 on Bodog.

I liked Silva quite a bit as a heavier underdog since I think he was being underrated based on the devastating loss to Lyoto Machida at UFC 94. Machida is a world-class competitor who outmatched Silva in every way. However, I believe the fight to be quite a bit closer against Keith Jardine.

Jardine (14-5-1 MMA, 6-4 UFC) is an unorthodox striker with underrated wrestling, primarily demonstrated in his effective takedown defense. Silva is a BJJ black belt with an underrated clinch game and aggressive striking. Both fighters train with quality teams, Jardine with the most excellent Greg Jackson camp in New Mexico, and Silva with American Top Team in Florida.

I expect Jardine to come in with a superior game plan that involves staying at distance, leveraging his leg kicks and unorthodox strikes, and attempting to avoid getting stuck in the clinch or ending up on his back. For Silva, the game plan is the exact opposite: avoid striking at distance and instead try to overwhelm Jardine with fast flurries to force the fight in to the clinch and to take the fight to the ground if possible.

I expect Jardine to win this fight, but I believe Silva to be a live underdog. Jardine has been overwhelmed in fights before, but none more dynamically than against Houston Alexander at UFC 71. Silva has that ability to overwhelm opponents. He also has other clear paths to victory if he can get the fight in the clinch or to the cage, or if Jardine gets on the ground for any reason (including a slip). Jardine has good takedown defense and is equally good at standing up out of takedowns, but it’s not impossible for him to end up on his back. And if he does, Silva brings an effective top game, slick guard passes, strong ground and pound, and solid submission skills to the table.

At the current odds, the value has been bet out of the line on Silva, and we’ve actually hit the point where I’d recommend a small play on Jardine for value. I believe the fair line for this fight to be about +/-150. If you can get Jardine for less or Silva for more, I’d recommend a small play for value.

If you grabbed a significant amount of Silva +185 from my Twitter recommendation, you are in the fortunate position where you can sit with a line that clearly has significant value over the current market price, or you can take further advantage and arbitrage with the current price on Jardine. I took the latter route, and currently I sit with a position of less than half a unit risked to win three units on Silva, courtesy of buying back on Jardine at -140.

Jake Rosholt (5-1 MMA, 0-1 UFC) was an outstanding collegiate wrestler for Oklahoma State University who now trains with Xtreme Couture. Rosholt made his UFC debut at UFC Fight Night 17 in February, where he lost by guillotine choke (the wrestler’s bane) to Dan Miller a little more than a minute into the fight.

Chris Leben (18-6 MMA, 8-4 UFC) is best known for his antics on the first season of “The Ultimate Fighter.” Formerly training with Team Quest, Leben now lives in Hawaii, was the head trainer for ICON Sport on Honolulu, but now operates Ultimate Fight School in Oahu.

Leben is well known for his iron chin, his power and his tendency to brawl. He also has an overlooked ground game, especially his defensive abilities while on bottom. Rosholt has demonstrated that he’s a traditional ground-and-pound wrestler at this point in his career.

At WEC 36 against Nissen Osterneck, Rosholt was beaten soundly on the feet with his opponent landing several big shots and even rocking Rosholt in the second round. Osterneck lost the fight when he slipped trying to land a head kick after rocking his opponent, and Rosholt was able to jump on top and end the fight with an unanswered barrage of punches.

I believe Leben is too well rounded for Rosholt. If Osterneck was able to land significant leather on Rosholt in their fight, Leben should definitely be able to do the same. With Leben’s power, that could result in a very early night for the former Okie. When the fight hits the ground, Leben has a solid guard and good toughness that should result in him being able to tie up his opponent and get the fight back to the feet.

All evidence appears that Rosholt, while a standout wrestler, is just too one-dimensional at this point in his career to have significant success against a modern, well-rounded mixed martial artist.

Team Jackson fighter Nate “The Great” Marquardt (28-8-2 MMA, 7-2 UFC) is an elite-level grappler with a black belt in Brazilian jiu jitsu under elite teacher Ricardo Murgel. Marquardt’s resume is filled with several impressive titles but none more so than his position as the only fighter to be crowned King of Pancrase seven times in Japan, which eclipsed the accomplishments of other Pancrase champions such as Bas Rutten, Ken Shamrock, Frank Shamrock, Guy Mezger and Japanese icons Masakatsu Funaki and Minoru Suzuki.

Marquardt’s UFC record is marred by only a defeat at the hands of Anderson Silva (nothing to be ashamed of, certainly) and a controversial split-decision loss to Thales Leites at UFC 85. In that fight, Marquardt was deducted two points, and the second was especially controversial as he was deducted for a marginal elbow strike supposedly to the back of the head without any significant warning. And yet Marquardt still won the fight on one judge’s card (despite two point deductions!) but lost a split decision due to the of the other two judges who saw the fight (with the deductions) for Leites.

Demian Maia (10-0 MMA, 5-0 UFC) is an elite-level Brazilian jiu jitsu fighter, holds a second-degree black belt and trains with Wanderlei Silva’s Wand Fight Team. Maia has a decorated grappling record that includes winning the 77 to 87 kg division of the 2007 ADCC Submission Wrestling World Championship (after placing second in the division in 2005). Maia’s long list of BJJ credentials also includes his status as a three-time World Cup champion, a two-time world champion, and the 2006 Pan-American champion.

Maia is without question an elite-level grappler who has dispatched his UFC opponents quickly and easily. However, his UFC career has also been rather tailored to his particular skill sets; His past UFC opponents have a combined 21 losses by submission out of 37 combined career defeats. If you exclude the record of journeyman veteran Jason MacDonald (33 career fights), Maia’s other UFC opponents have 17 submission losses out of 25 career losses (or almost 70 percent). In Marquardt, Maia faces an elite-level grappler with skills only slightly trailing his own, as opposed to facing a history of opponents with significantly lesser jiu-jitsu skills.

Maia has demonstrated solid ability to get the fight to the ground in his recent fights, whether it’s by pulling guard or by taking down Chael Sonnen from the clinch. However, Marquardt is by far the largest and strongest fighter that Maia has faced, with the best overall takedown defense. Sonnen may be a better wrestler on paper, but Marquardt has better MMA wrestling, in no small part due to his excellent fight IQ compared to Sonnen’s almost complete lack thereof.

Even if Maia can get this fight to the ground, the close gap in jiu-jitsu skills combined with Marquardt’s elite top game and most excellent defensive jiu jitsu should allow him to avoid almost all submission attempts – unless Marquardt makes a mistake. While always a possibility, remember that MacDonald was able to avoid multiple submission attempts from Maia for more than 12 minutes in their fight at UFC 91 and succumbed to a rear naked choke more than two minutes into the third round. It’s a big mistake, in my opinion, to think that Maia’s submission wizardry will result in an easy path to victory against Marquardt as a result.

Instead, Marquardt is a huge favorite for this fight, in my opinion. He’s bigger, stronger, more well-rounded, better conditioned and a much better striker with a stifling top game and world-class defensive jiu jitsu. He also has the coaching and game planning advantage with Greg Jackson in his corner.

Look for Marquardt to implement a similar game plan as he did in his one-sided beatdown of Dean Lister at UFC Fight Night 8. Marquardt should be able to dictate where the fight takes place at all times, and he should be able to stifle his opponent if the fight hits the ground to the point that he can safely stand back up and resume a barrage of punishment on the feet.

As I posted back on Twitter in the end of July, Marquardt was available at -115 when this line opened. Now, Marquardt is as high as -190 at most books, with -170 still available at 5Dimes and -180 at MMAjunkie.com sponsor (and A-rated book) BetOnline.com.

Even at these odds, I believe Marquardt to be worth a moderate play. His edge in this fight is tremendous since I believe Maia’s only likely path to victory is to catch Marquardt making a mistake on the ground, a highly unlikely outcome. Maia excels in one specific area, but Marquardt is a complete fighter, highly skilled in all aspects of MMA, with no specific weaknesses to attack at all. As such, I believe Marquardt will likely win a very one-sided unanimous decision with a conservative game plan,. However, his power and fight IQ mean that a TKO finish is never far away.

Krzysztof Soszynski (+150) vs. Brandon Vera (-190)

Once a highly touted heavyweight prospect, Brandon Vera (10-3 MMA, 6-3 UFC) was run out of the division by consecutive losses to Tim Sylvia and Fabricio Werdum. Now Vera is 2-1 as a light heavyweight with the lone loss via split decision to Keith Jardine at UFC 89.

Krzysztof Soszynski (18-8-1 MMA, 3-0 UFC) is a former IFL fighter who trains with Team Quest. After an early career spent fighting primarily in Canada, he competed on the eighth season of “The Ultimate Fighter.” Although knocked out of the competition in the semifinals, “The Polish Experiment” defeated fellow cast member Shane Primm via submission at the show’s live finale.

Despite dropping three of four fights in the IFL in 2006-2007, he has now won six straight bouts, including quick first round-finishes of Brian Stann (by submission) at UFC 97 and Andre Gusmao (by knockout) at UFC 98. There, Soszynski was filling in for an injured Houston Alexander on short notice. Here, Soszynski is again a fill-in, this time for Matt Hamill, who suffered a meniscus tear to his knee in training. Soszynski took this fight on six weeks’ notice.

Soszynski has proven a tough competitor, equally comfortable on his feet and on the ground. Vera, however, should prove a tough challenge with his superior striking and excellent clinch work. If Vera can keep the fight at distance, he should be able to pick apart Soszynski. However, if Soszynski can close ground and dump Vera to the ground, he can win by submission or by ground and pound.

This fight opened at -115 for each side, a horribly mis-priced line for Vera. Money has come pouring in as expected, and it has resulted in the current (and more accurate) line. At the current odds, I’d recommend staying away from the fight; there are simply too many good betting opportunities elsewhere.

If, like me, you’re holding on to Vera at a much better number, I’d recommend keeping it as opposed to arbing it out (unless you’re just completely risk adverse.Vera should be a moderate favorite here; however, Soszynski is very much a live underdog if he can get the fight to the ground. As such, if you can find Soszynski at +180 or better, I’d consider a small play on the underdog.

PRELIMINARY CARD

Gabriel Gonzaga (-365) vs. Chris Tuchscherer (+300)

Despite dropping three of his past five fights, Gabriel Gonzaga (10-4 MMA, 6-3 UFC) is still an elite heavyweight fighter, at least in terms of MMA’s general lack of depth in the heavyweight division.

Training at Minnesota Martial Arts Academy under Greg Nelson and alongside Brock Lesnar and Sean Sherk, Chris Tuchscherer holds a 17-1 MMA record. A two-time NCAA Division II All-American wrestler for Minnesota State University, Tuchscherer tried out for “The Ultimate Fighter 10″ earlier this year. However, instead of a spot on the UFC’s reality series, he earned a UFC contract and a direct path into the UFC’s steadily improving heavyweight division.

During a five-year career, “The Crowbar” has lost just once. It came to Travis Wiuff in the finale of YAMMA Pit Fighting’s same-day eight-man heavyweight tournament in early 2008. The smaller Wiuff used ground control to ride out the three-round unanimous decision win.

Tuchscherer, though, has found plenty of success in organizations throughout the Midwest. Thirteen of his 17 career victories have come via stoppage, which has included wins over notables such as Soszynski, Alexey Oleinik, Chuck Grigsby and Branden Lee Hinkle.

Despite the impressive record and the wrestling credentials, Tuchscherer should be significantly over-matched here. Gonzaga has generally devoured any non-elite fighters he’s faced, and there’s little reason to think that Tuchscherer will be able to control an opponent as dangerous as Gonzaga when he couldn’t do much of anything against Wiuff 18 months ago. Gonzaga’s BJJ skills should present significant danger to Tuchscherer on the ground, and Gonzaga’s Muay Thai skills should give him the edge on the feet.

Despite what I see as a clear victory for Gonzaga, I believe there are better betting opportunities on the card given the market line.

UFC heavyweight Justin McCully (9-4-2 MMA, 2-1 UFC) has been fighting professionally for 12-and-a-half years. McCully most recently fought in a December 2008 win over Eddie Sanchez at UFC Fight Night 16. The 12-year veteran has won five of his past six contests with the lone loss coming by submission to Gonzaga at UFC 86 in July 2008.

Prior to the Gonzaga loss, McCully had earned a unanimous-decision win over Antoni Hardonk in April 2007, his first appearance for the UFC.

This fight was originally scheduled to be McCully vs. Junior dos Santos. Instead, dos Santos was pulled to face Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic at UFC 103, and McCully found himself with a new opponent: veteran heavyweight Mike Russow (11-1 MMA, 0-0 UFC), who is an active Chicago police officer.

The 32-year-old Russow, who’s competed for organizations such as Adrenaline MMA and PRIDE, enters the UFC with a seven-fight winning streak, which included a first-round submission victory over Jason Guida in the main event of Adrenaline MMA’s first event. Six months later, in December 2008, he scored another submission victory, over Braden Bice, at Adrenaline MMA’s second show. In fact, eight of Russow’s 11 victories have come via submission (and two others via knockout).

Russow, a former state high school wrestling champion in Illinois, suffered his lone career loss at PRIDE 33, an event that took place in February 2007 in Las Vegas. There, he suffered a first-round submission loss to notable Sergei Kharitonov.

I don’t expect this fight to be tremendously impressive. McCully, despite being a swell guy and great co-host on MMAjunkie.com Radio, hasn’t shown significant promise since joining the UFC. While Russow could add some much-needed mid-tier depth to the UFC’s heavyweight roster, he still has a way to go and as a part-time fighter. And since he’s older than 30, time is not in his favor.

Todd Duffee (-170) vs. Tim Hague (+145)

Todd Duffee is a young heavyweight prospect with a 4-0 professional record who trains with American Top Team. Duffee was originally supposed to debut against Mostapha Al Turk at UFC 99, but he was replaced by “Cro Cop” when the Croatian re-signed with the organization for the German event. In his most recent fight, Duffee defeated Assuerio Silva by second round TKO in the Brazilian organization Jungle Fight.

Canadian Tim Hague holds a blue belt in Brazilian jiu jitsu and has a 10-1 professional record after defeating Pat Barry by first round submission in his UFC debut. In that fight, Hague absorbed a surprising amount of punishment in the opening minute before getting the fight to the ground and slapping on a guillotine choke.

Duffee appears to be faster and more athletic than Hague, and he comes from a better training background. Despite the gap in experience, I expect him to come out guns blazing and put a quick finish on the fight. Duffee should be worth a moderate play up to -200.

Nick Catone (+190) vs. Mark Munoz (-215)

Nick Catone (6-1 MMA), a veteran of New Jersey’s Ring of Combat organization, is 1-1 in the UFC. Catone won his UFC debut against Derek Downey by submission at UFC Fight Night 17, but he returned with a submission loss to Tim Credeur at UFC Fight Night 18. Catone holds a BJJ purple belt under Bill Scott (a Ricardo Almeida black belt) and has a background in wrestling with more than 100 career wins while competing on scholarship at Rider University in New Jersey. At Rider, Catone was a two-time Division I conference champion and national qualifier.

Mark Munoz (5-1 MMA, 0-1 UFC) is also a wrestler but with a much more impressive pedigree. Wrestling for Oklahoma State, Munoz won two Big 12 titles, back-to-back All-American honors, and a national championship. Munoz was also a three-year member of the Greco-Roman FILA Junior Wrestling Team, for which he won a silver medal in 1998.

Munoz came up short in his UFC debut and was on the receiving end of a vicious first-round head kick from Matt Hamill at UFC 96. This is Munoz’s first fight down at middleweight.

Munoz should handle this fight; he should have better wrestling skills and should be able to put Catone on his back instead of vice versa. And he should be able to win the striking on the feet as well. With his experience cutting weight from a lifetime of wrestling, the first fight at a lower weight class isn’t a huge concern, and as such, Munoz should have a decent size and strength advantage. There’s always the possibility of Munoz coming out tentative after his devastating knockout, but since he’s a lifelong competitor, I expect him to rebound effectively here.

Unless he gets caught in an early guillotine – always a danger for a wrestler – look for Munoz to beat up on Catone on the feet while stuffing takedowns, put his opponent on his back, and grind out the win via ground and pound. Catone should have an edge in jiu jitsu, but other than ending up in a guillotine off a takedown, Munoz should be able to control Catone on the ground to the point that there’s little risk of Catone locking in a submission from his back against such a strong wrestler.

Munoz is not a bad bet south of -250; however, there are better opportunities on the card if you’re playing with a limited bankroll and need to pick your spots more carefully.

American Top Team fighter Marcus “Maximus” Aurelio (18-7 MMA, 2-3 UFC) is a third-degree BJJ black belt and a longtime veteran of the PRIDE organization. Aurelio has been mediocre in his UFC career after getting outwrestled by Clay Guida at UFC 74, Tyson Griffin at UFC 86, and Hermes Franca at UFC 90.

Undefeated lightweight prospect Evan Dunham (8-0 MMA) won his UFC debut with a quick first round TKO of Per Ekland at UFC 95. Dunham trains with Xtreme Couture in Las Vegas. He is well rounded with solid striking, but he also had decent grappling and holds a brown belt in BJJ under Wellington “Megaton” Dias. Despite the record, Dunham is generally untested against top tier competition, and this will definitely be his toughest MMA fight to date. Win or lose, we should learn a lot about his future career prospects.

Dunham should have a clear path to victory over Aurelio as laid out effectively by Guida, Griffin and Franca in the past: Force Aurelio to work from his back, punish him on the feet, and drag him into deep water, where his cardio has proven less than effective over the years. However, Dunham doesn’t have the wrestling to defend Aurelio’s takedown attempts, and this could be a very quick victory for “Maximus.”

This fight has the potential for high volatility. I think it’s a general toss-up with the line accurately set. I won’t be making a play here unless Dunham swings to a larger underdog.

Aaron “A-Train” Simpson holds a 5-0 MMA record after winning his UFC debut against Tim McKenzie at UFC Fight Night 18. Simpson was a two-time All-American wrestler for Arizona State University, and he now trains at Arizona Combat Sports alongside the likes of C.B. Dollaway. All five of his wins have come by TKO, and only one fight has gone out of the first round. Despite being new to MMA, Simpson is 35 years old – not exactly the young prospect you might assume at first glance.

Simpson faces a tough test in veteran fighter Ed “Short Fuse” Herman (15-7 MMA, 4-4 UFC). Herman should have the crowd behind him as a native Oregonian. Herman’s a well-rounded mid-tier fighter, but a long time spent training with Team Quest – who as a team have generally has failed to evolve in to modern MMA effectively, and have found very limited success in recent years – means his development has largely stagnated.

Simpson should have the speed, athleticism and wrestling skills to win this fight in the early rounds. However, Herman is not easy to finish, and assuming he can weather the predicted early storm, he can certainly slap on a fight-ending submission at any time. The apparently unpatched vulnerability of the Arizona Combat Sports cadre of wrestlers to submission especially makes Herman an attractive pick. Consider a small play at the current odds, though this is a high-volatility pick and the fight could easily go either way.

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