“The McCain smear and giving out Graham’s cellphone? What an asshole,” vented a New Hampshire Republican, who says Trump has peaked. “Trumpism does not represent some deeper sentiment within the party, nor has he tapped into something a more conventional candidate can now co-opt. His candidacy has as much substance and meaning as cotton candy. I didn’t like him before. Now I loathe him.”

33 comments:

While most bloggers I read occasionally link to Politico and so once in a while I actually read a Politico story, I have never once gone on my own to Politico. I couldn't even tell you if they slant left or right, if they are respected or not.

I am not sure that this is a fair complaint. Politico was accurately reporting the views of the R elite. Some still hold those views, although NRO appears to be approaching the acceptance phase of grief.

I'm grossed out by all the pundit talk about Sanders and Clinton winning the "Latino" vote and the "Black" vote.

Doesn't the fact that two Latinos and one Black man are running as GOP kind of prove there's no such thing as issues for certain ethnicities.How can they say with a straight face Hillary winning black votes in NV shows she can win black votes in SC. That is incredibly racist, is it not?A majority of any group you make up are going to vote one way or another. That doesn't make them a voting block or a special interest group.If nothing else, maybe this weird election will start to put an end to all of that.

Why doens't anyone talk about Senator Cruz or Senator Rubio reaching a ceiling? The assumption seems to be that they have unlimited potential. It's clear that the others in the race (with the possible exception of Gov. Kasich in Ohio, but he has to win OH first) have reached some ceiling and the thought is that every other vote will go to NotTrump which doesn't make sense given the demographics of the first three contests.

Other good discussions of how strong the anti-PC sentiment may be in this campaign:https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/why-trump-may-be-winning-the-war-on-political-correctness/2016/01/04/098cf832-afda-11e5-b711-1998289ffcea_story.htmlhttp://www.independent.co.uk/voices/donald-trump-railing-against-political-correctness-seems-to-have-struck-a-chord-with-americans-of-a6804181.html

Another interesting question. What are the policy differences between pTb, Mr. S. and the Taxed Enough Already Crowd. Probably not much. The best interview question of the election posed a list of policies (not complete, but most of them) of Mr. S. to your pTb and he said "that's me!" Ok, so he's planning a hostile takeover of both parties, and probably could care less about the legislature who he knows he can make deals with. Skin away the rotted fruit, preserve the healthy core. An Administration that is actually an executive, not donor or corporate shills. Who care more about the country than looking good. Wasn't there just another gone crazy out-of-good paying job, not hope for the future, probably in debt beyond his eyeballs shooting? And the left wants to regulate jobs rather than cutting government in half so the bottom 50% can get a job where it's possible to move up the ladder because there is a ladder? Will be good fun. Time for New Zealand style reform, they got both sides in the parliament to work together. After all these are their constituents not the executive’s who’ve done nothing but harm even with the best of intentions as guided by the donor class and corporate elites. So they discarded the executive socialist rot. Someone should go report on how pTb this to other firms he took over including his father’s.

Early primary voting began last week in Texas and runs for two weeks, and my wife and I were compelled to choose. Early this morning, while driving to work, we decided on Donald Trump. I can't tell you a single one of the planks in his platform, apart from being against illegal aliens, but that, and just being something different, is enough. He'll get at least two votes in our Southeast Austin precinct.

And interestingly, since Texas is an open primary state, I expect he'll get far more votes than expected in our very heavily Hispanic census tract, for the reason that Hispanics aren't nearly as monolithic as the media and liberals think they are, and quite a few Hispanics are as pissed about immigration as my wife and I.

Most of the actual quotes in the article contradict Mickey's point. That is, those anticipating a quick peak Trump were doing a lot of hedging.

An Iowa Republican said, “yes,” when asked whether Trump has hit his zenith, but clarified, “I’d like to think so. But who the hell really knows anymore?”

“I hope and pray that he has peaked,” added another Granite State Republican, who like all participants was granted anonymity in order to speak freely. “The GOP has a chance in 2016 and it diminishes each time Trump increases his poll numbers.”

“GOP establishment (especially in early states) and some media are in a panic right now about Trump, and are quick to develop a storyline that he can’t last,” said a New Hampshire Democrat, who like all participants answered through an online submission form. “The truth is otherwise. The base loves him, he keeps showing top tier status nationally and in early states, he (like Hillary) has 100 percent name ID, and unlike all others, doesn’t need either traditional donors or dark money ones. While there are some parallels to [Ross] Perot, this is a new phenomenon and existing precedent doesn’t apply. Who knows where this goes?”

Another added, “If peaking is poll numbers, maybe, but this guy is far from done. He has no reason to drop out. He is going to be the focus of the first debate.”

Because Trump didn't and hasn't yet peaked doesn't mean there is no ceiling. (4 negatives for those counting)

I see that I am not the first to observe; the story accurately portrayed the view of many Republicans that Donald Trump really is an asshole. And 70% or so of Republicans seem uninterested in voting for Trump; it has been the case throughout the campaign.

Chuck never talks about the 80% or so who aren't interested in voting for Rubio, or the 80% or so who aren't interested in voting for Cruz. I wonder why that is? It has been the case throughout the campaign.

Chuck never talks about the 80% or so who aren't interested in voting for Rubio, or the 80% or so who aren't interested in voting for Cruz. I wonder why that is? It has been the case throughout the campaign.

More particularly, Rubio's whole strategy has not been to win supporters affirmatively, but rather, to plead with supposed no-hope candidates to drop out so their supporters will grudgingly vote for him instead. But what that means is that a substantial fraction of the voters he's targeting as his base of support would really rather vote for a candidate with no realistic chance of winning the nomination than vote for Rubio. That is some astonishingly weak support.

Turnout is a major factor in Presidential elections -- I would not be betting on a Rubio victory in a general election. Well, maybe against Clinton. Democrats are about as unenthusiastic about Clinton as Republicans are about Rubio.

Thus if you ran the Republican establishment and wanted to stop Trump, it would stand to reason that your top priority would be to persuade either Cruz or Rubio to withdraw. But candidates typically don’t get out until it’s clear they can’t win (sometimes even then; we’re looking at you, Dr. Carson). And there’s no guarantee Cruz’s or Rubio’s numbers would hold up in a two-man race—especially if the other withdrew prematurely, raising suspicions of a corrupt deal.

The cognitive dissonance over Trump’s commanding position is bipartisan. We noted Feb. 12 that several liberal commentators were pronouncing themselves “terrified” of him. Then there’s Danielle Allen, a political theorist at Harvard. Here’s the lead paragraph of her post-South Carolina op-ed in the Washington Post:

Like any number of us raised in the late 20th century, I have spent my life perplexed about exactly how Hitler could have come to power in Germany.

Trump may have hit the ceiling. Unfortunately for the country, as long as he has more than one Primary opponents, his ceiling is higher than the other's. Meaning Republican nominee Trump will lose to Her Felon-ness, the Empress Dowager of the Big House.