I’d wait to see how The Cher Show does with the nominating committee. If it overperforms in nominations, then I think Stephanie J. Block could have a shot. If it does as well as I’m currently expecting it to (which is two nominations for Lead Actress and Costume Design), then I’m not sure how Stephanie could possibly win.

I think it’s going to win costumes. Stephanie is very much a front runner. Beth Leavel looks decent but as I said Hadestown is going to do very well. I’m not sure if they’re ready to give another show 3/4 acting awards like they did for Hamilton. Patrick Page I’m very comfortable predicting as a winner this year. Amber has a tough category but as I said she benefits from being the sole nominee (which I think she will be) from her show.

I did a study once on acting categories with multiple nominees from the same show since 2000. In over half the cases, one of the nominees with castmates in the category won. So I don’t think vote-splitting is as much a factor at the Tonys. Multiple nominees in the same category indicates the show is well-regarded.

I think The Cher Show will be up for Choreography as well as Costumes and Actress. The costumes are an interesting case to me. In several scenes, Bob Mackie is just recreating some of his iconic designs for Cher. Will the Tonys want to recognize that? I’m not sure. I think Beetlejuice will give it a run for its money at any rate.

The Featured Actor in a play is tough. (All the play acting categories are really stacked this year.) But from The Ferryman, I will be surprised and disappointed if Tom Glynn-Carney and Justin Edwards aren’t among the nominees.

Featured Actress in a Play will also be a bloodbath: Fionnula Flanagan, Dearbhla Molloy, Julie White, Celia Keenan-Bolger, Mercedes Ruehl, LaTanya Richardson Jackson, Ruth Wilson, Joan Allen… Good Lord.

I think it’s going to win costumes. Stephanie is very much a front runner. Beth Leavel looks decent but as I said Hadestown is going to do very well. I’m not sure if they’re ready to give another show 3/4 acting awards like they did for Hamilton. Patrick Page I’m very comfortable predicting as a winner this year. Amber has a tough category but as I said she benefits from being the sole nominee (which I think she will be) from her show.

Don’t forget that The Band’s Visit also won three acting awards last year as part of that show’s sweep. Patrick Page is a possible Featured Actor winner, though if André De Shields is nominated there as well, can you see the two of them potentially canceling each other out?

Don’t forget that The Band’s Visit also won three acting awards last year as part of that show’s sweep. Patrick Page is a possible Featured Actor winner, though if André De Shields is nominated there as well, can you see the two of them potentially canceling each other out?

Page is who the show has been tirelessly promoting. He’s also a huge supporting role. He’s a beloved, hardworking vet who’s never won. I didn’t even know DeShields had enough of a role to be considered. I think Page is going to do it and in a crowded category DeShields will be overlooked (Oklahoma has some actors who can be nominated-the actor playing Will Parker is great).

I didn’t even know De Shields had enough of a role to be considered. I think Page is going to do it and in a crowded category DeShields will be overlooked (Oklahoma! has some actors who can be nominated-the actor playing Will Parker is great).

André De Shields’ character in Hadestown, Hermes, is suppose to be the narrator.

Does anyone else think that Tootsie has a shot at Best Book? I may just be speaking out of frustration at the recent history of Tony sweeps, but Tootsie has been getting rave reviews out of town and I think that, though Hadestown will get Best Musical and Score, Tootsie looks to be a contender for Best Book.

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