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On July 20th, the incumbent President of Rwanda Paul Kagame has officially launched his campaign for another term in office. The campaign will end on August 9th when the election results are scheduled be made official. Kagame is determined to win with a similar comfortable margin [fr] as in 2003 when he won his presidential bid with 95% of recorded votes.

There are only three challengers running against the Rwandan Patriotic Front’s leader, two former ministers and one senator who supported him during the 2003 presidential elections: Jean-Damascene Ntawukuriryayo, for the Social Democratic Party, Prosper Higiro for Liberal Party and Alvera Mukabaramba for the Party of Progress and Concord. But where is the real opposition?

- The Green Party: it was launched in August 2009 by defectors from the RPF party, currently in power. This party was not approved by the authorities and its vice-president André Kagwa Rwisereka was murdered last week.

- The Social Imberakuri Party [fr]: its founder member Bernard Ntaganda was excluded from his party and arrested on June 24th and he is currently placed under custody pending trial for charges of ”terrorism” and ”genocidal ideology”)

- The Unified Democratic Forces: The party president Victoire Ingabire was also charged and placed under a custody pending trial for “propagation of genocidal ideology.”

Kris Berwouts, director of the European NGO network for the defence of Central Africa EurAc, stressed the difficulties faced by the opposition parties before the 2010 presidential elections:

As the opposition parties were preparing for their electoral campaigns, we witnessed how they had been isolated and how the political scene was restricted using the following measures:

the regime's monopoly over media, which has constantly diabolized the opposition parties and their leaders;

verbal and physical intimidation of the opposition parties, their leaders, their executives and militants;

the creation of a legal framework which enables the regime to rapidly start legal steps against the opposition parties which can hardly defend themselves (mainly because the accusations of propagation of genocidal ideology and ethnic divisionism are deliberately vague and overarching legal concepts). This framework paralyzes opposition leaders in their daily activities and is used to ward them off of their political rights;

administrative policies that are trying to prevent the opposition party from registering, getting organized, holding meetings or getting publicity with the general population;

Infiltration of the opposition parties in order to destabilize them from the inside.

High-ranking officers and Kagame’s former confidents were also targeted in the pre-election tensions. As a matter of fact, General Nyamwasa, in exile in Johannesburg, South Africa since February 2010 was shot in front of his house on June 19 after having expressed vigorous charges of corruption in the Kagame government. In April, two other generals, Emmanuel Karenzi Karake and Charles Muhire were suspended and arrested [fr], the first for immoral behaviour and the second for corruption. All of them are allegedly guilty of terrorism and a reorganization of the command of the army quickly occurred afterwards.

By scorning fundamental civil rights, increasing dubious arrests and unforgivable murders of political leaders and journalists, the man of the reconciliation Kagame who stabilized the political and social climate after the 1994 genocide, has re-opened the scars left by the most horrific period of Rwandan history. There were numerous trials conducted by the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda about the genocide since 1994. The President who has has used limitation of genocidal ideology to justify the recent arrests has received strong support on the Internet. His supporters will probably come out in force to attend to his expected victory on August 9th. Kagame will then further establish his control over Rwanda. The question is, is it for better or for worse ?