Political Memo; Democrats' Distress Grows As Presidential Field Shrinks

By ROBIN TONER,

Published: August 8, 1991

WASHINGTON, Aug 7—
Democrats struggled today to adjust to the last thing they needed six months before the Iowa caucuses: an already tiny Presidential field that keeps shrinking.

As expected, Senator John D. Rockefeller 4th announced in Charleston, W.Va., today that he would not seek the 1992 Democratic Presidential nomination. That announcement, just three weeks after Representative Richard A. Gephardt of Missouri, the House majority leader, took himself out of the race, combined with the demurrals of other Democratic heavyweights to create a frustrating, embarrassing pattern for the party.

While the West Virginia Democrat struggled to cast his decision as a personal one, it left a clear public perception that one leading Democrat after another was looking at the 1992 campaign and deciding that George Bush could not be beaten.

"The role of an opposition party is to offer alternatives," said Mr. Angelides, who argued that the Bush Administration had real vulnerabilities.

Representative Robert G. Torricelli, Democrat of New Jersey, said, "This is no longer an entertaining situation. This is becoming a serious problem."

Senator Rockefeller's withdrawal is expected to open new opportunities for those who seem eager to run, like Gov. Bill Clinton of Arkansas and Senator Tom Harkin of Iowa. It is also expected to heighten the pressure on Senator Al Gore of Tennessee and Gov. Mario M. Cuomo of New York to enter the race.

In the modern world of nominating politics, this is remarkably late for a novice to mount a Presidential campaign, particularly one against a popular President. Both Mr. Gore, who ran in 1988, and Mr. Cuomo are widely considered to have the name recognition, political base and fund-raising potential to jump into the race late and mount a formidable campaign.

"In previous Presidential campaigns, people were now dispatching their state campaign managers with well-defined plans," Mr. Torricelli said. "I'm not certain there's anyone now considering a race other than Mario Cuomo who could make up for the lost time."

While Mr. Gore is considering a race, Mr. Cuomo has repeatedly said he had neither plans nor plans to make plans for a Presidential campaign.

Still, the New York State Democratic Chairman, John Marino, suggested today that Mr. Cuomo had time. "An Al Gore, a Lloyd Bentsen, a Cuomo, people who have recognition and some base, that kind of person can wait longer than most people say is traditional," Mr. Marino said. "I didn't think the process was so bad in 1960, when it was much more confined." The Price of Delay

The party has an enormous stake in these collective personal decisions. In the South and elsewhere, Democratic leaders worry about the impact of a weak Presidential ticket on House and Senate candidates. And they worry about the party's image in general.

"If we don't have folks attracting folks to their campaign and therefore to the party, we pay a long-term price," said James Ruvolo, a member of the Democratic National Committee from Ohio.

Mr. Ruvolo and others have argued that candidates interested in 1996 should be out running in 1992, and there is an undercurrent of annoyance about those who choose to sit this race out.

"I don't put Jay in this category," Mr. Angelides said, referring to Mr. Rockefeller, "because I think he wrestled with it. But I would say that for those people who would lead us in 1996: now is when we need leaders."

Still, the Democrats have a recent history of repudiating their failed nominees, a fact that weighs heavily with many potential candidates.

Mr. Rockefeller, who began actively exploring a Presidential candidacy in May, asserted that he believed that President Bush was beatable. But he said he lacked the time to both mount a campaign and plan a Presidency. But Mr. Rockefeller's effort to cast his decision as purely personal was greeted with some scorn by the Republicans. "It's another big-name Democrat who got all prepared, got up to the starting gate, blinked and backed out," said Charles Black, a top Republican strategist strategist, "which certainly speaks to what they think their prospects of winning are." Some Signs of Life

Despite Mr. Rockefeller's withdrawal, there is some stirring in the party. Mr. Harkin has been rousing the party faithful, while Mr. Clinton seems to be moving ever closer to candidacy. Gov. L. Douglas Wilder of Virginia is testing the waters, and former Senator Paul E. Tsongas of Massachusetts is carrying the banner as the party's only announced candidate. The Rev. Jesse Jackson is also still thought to be considering a race.

Some Democrats had felt in recent weeks that they were finally drawing some blood from the White House over domestic issues; the President himself seemed slightly rattled by it last week. And today, Ronald H. Brown, the chairman of the Democratic National Committee, declared, "One less candidate in the primaries will not erase the fact that this country and our economy is drifting from bad to worse and George Bush doesn't have a clue how to fix it."

Still, it is shaping up as a strangely spare field for the Democrats. And as the clock winds down, the heavyweights -- Bentsen, Cuomo, Gephardt -- are demurring, and a promising newcomer, Mr. Rockefeller, is now joining them on the sidelines.