Big Sky Poll Favors Tester – Williams Gianforte Dead Heat

One fact that pollster Sara Rinfret with the University of Montana absolutely confirms is that everyone hates negative political adds, but, ironically, that they really work.

As the mid-term election draws closer, candidates from both sides of the aisle are airing more vicious attack ads against their opponents, and in the U.S. Senate race, they seem to be working for Democrat Jon Tester.

"If the vote were today, folks said that about 48.9 percent or 49 percent said they would vote for Jon Tester, while 39 percent said they would vote for Matt Rosendale," said Rinfret. "But I think the most interesting point was that about 10 percent are still undecided, and when we asked which one they were leaning toward and they said 25 percent of the undecideds are leaning toward Matt Rosendale."

In the U.S. House race, Rinfret said the poll is much closer.

45.8 percent said they were voting for the Democrat Kathleen Williams, while about 45.3 percent were voting for Greg Gianforte, so it's a dead heat there," she said. "There are only seven percent undecided with 17 percent of those leaning toward Williams and three percent towards Gianforte.

What about those negative attack ads mentioned earlier?

"When they do focus groups nationally about negative campaigns is that we all hate them, but they work," she said. "They do really affect the electorate and how they vote. We may turn off the TV or the radio but they do stick and they do work."

Rinfret, however, was careful to qualify the results of the poll.

"There's a misnomer that how you respond to a public opinion poll is how you're going to vote, but we never know what happens until election day, November 6th.