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FOLLOWING MONEY IN 2016 PRESIDENTIAL POLITICS

Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Arizona Senior Senator John McCain was in the arena for the presidency four years ago, yet his memory of it seems to be a little skewed to match his present-day desires. The Boston Herald interviewed McCain and features his call to "Close Curtain On GOP 'Greek Tragedy'".

He bemoans the attacks on Mitt Romney, the man who he has endorsed, and says it weakens the chances for Romney in the November general election.

Of course, at this time four years ago, McCain had finished attacking Romney and had sewn up the GOP nomination, and then spent the next few months watching with barely concealed glee as Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton and their supporters savaged each other. And later, as Clinton and supporters continued to claw at Obama as he became the more likely Democratic nominee.

The Herald reporter did ask McCain about the 2008/2012 comparison, but McCain brushed it off by saying that the current GOP fight is much more savage than the Democratic battle was. He cites the 3a.m. phone call as evidence of the tameness of the 2008 internecine fight.

It would appear that he forgets just how vicious he, other Republicans and just about everyone thought that television ad was at the time. Not to mention the Rev. Wright attacks, and the other innuendos that were supposedly being floated by Hillary operatives.

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An interesting tidbit in the Herald article: it notes that McCain will be rallying with Romney in Phoenix tonight. (3rd graf)

No mention of this officially, though it would not be surprising for the candidate to catch a flight out of Michigan, use the time difference and make it to Arizona in time to make a victory speech in a state where he is likely to claim a decent margin. Certainly, McCain, Brewer and Company could hold the crowd at the Hyatt Regency for a while if whispers are in the air that Mitt is in the air.

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Thursday, February 23, 2012

The pro-Santorum Super PAC "The Red White And Blue Fund" may have given up on Arizona, despite recent polls showing former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum closing the gap on former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney for the lead in Arizona's Republican Presidential Preference Primary next Tuesday. The RWB Fund just filed a notice with the FEC (Federal Elections Commission) that it spent more than $634,000 in Michigan on television advertising yesterday; to date, the Super PAC has spent nothing in Arizona. (Michigan holds its primary the same day as Arizona.

Well, it FINALLY happened! The Pro-Romney Super PAC "Restore Our Future" dropped a big negative ad bomb on surging former Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA)this week. Yesterday, they filed their FEC report disclosing a $334,850 advertising buy for their negative ad(s) against Santorum. Here is the ad they are most likely featuring, titled "Votes":

The ad goes after Santorum on his record in the Senate, and was the basis for some of the rock 'em sock 'em (robot) action between Santorum and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA)in last night's debate.

Earlier, the Pro-Gingrich Super PAC "Winning Our Future" filed reports disclosing its expenditures in Arizona of approximately $225,000 in radio, internet and media advertising. Many of the ads warned voters about allowing the Republican establishment to pick the candidate in 2012, which would seem to be interpreted as warning against a vote for Romney.

Nothing from the pro-Paul or pro-Santorum Super PACs... yet. And, nothing approaching Florida levels. But, yesterday's filing does appear to be an indication that the pro-Romney people are quite worried about quelling the Santorum surge.

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Tuesday, February 21, 2012

Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA) used his keynote address to the Maricopa County Republican Party Lincoln Day lunch to blast President Obama as wanting to weaken the U.S. Constitution. He vowed to restore the governing framework to its place of protecting every human life.
Santorum used the recent comments by Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg as evidence that liberals like Obama want to work to diminish the Constitution with executive decisions like the recent recess appointments. Ginsburg made a few waves when she gave an interview to Egyptian TV and noted ththat the recently-written South Africa constitution and other post-WWII efforts might be better models for the Egyptian people than the United States Constitution.
With a leading Republican presidential contender highlighting the remarks and extending them to the President, Justice Ginsburg's remarks are sure to get more attention. Here is the entire interview:
In addition, here are a few selected transcript clips from memri.org. I have watched most of the interview now, and Justice Ginsburg spends several minutes praising the U.S. Constitution (approximately 4:30 in the video through 9:30). She specifically talks about many of the aspects that she believes make our government so powerful and durable.
At the 9:30 mark, the interviewer asks her what models the Egyptian people might want to use for their own constitution, which is where she notes that newer constitutions have engrained the human rights aspects in a way that is preferable to the U.S. model that was written in a different day and age and which has been added on by amendments, laws and interpretations.
Justice Ginsburg, at this stage in her career, is much more soft-spoken than she was in the past. Yet, I suspect that if Sen. Santorum actually took 15 minutes to watch the video (http://bit.ly/wJU0sd), he would drop this line of attack on her. (If not the President.)
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Thursday, February 9, 2012

And, now there are SEVEN. That's how many Democrats and Republicans have now announced their intention to run in the April 17 Special Election primaries to replace now-retired Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-CD8). The flurry has happened faster than this ex-reporter can cover in between his current responsibilities - and certainly, the full-time reporters at the Star, the Tucson Weekly and the broadcast media are keeping us abreast pretty well - but, let me go ahead and compile some basic info in one place about all of the announced candidates. Hopefully, it will be helpful for all of us. (Listed randomly, as determined by assigning each of them numbers based on alphabetical order and then using random.org to pick a starting place. Hey, being in the middle of the alphabet will leave you sensitive to that kind of thing. ;-) )

MATT HEINZ (D): State Rep. Heinz (D-LD29) does not yet have his website up, but he does have this ad up on YouTube:
OK, well, strike that first statement because the YouTube does lead one to his website, heinzforcongress.com, even though it weirdly did not come up on a Google search.

JOHN LERVOLD (R): Mr. Lervold was a sergeant in the Army until 2008 and has been training and certifying new DOD interrogators at Ft. Huachuca since then. He describes himself as "a lifelong supporter of the Constitution" (we will see if any of the other candidates say that they have not shared that degree of support). His website is jlforcongress.org.

MARTHA MCSALLY (R): Ms. McSally has had a very interesting history, well-described in this article in the Daily Star. She was the first female to fly fighter combat in U.S. history for the Air Force and the first to command a fighter squadron in combat. She refuses to classify herself as either a moderate or a conservative, telling the questioner, "I consider myself a leader." She does not have a website up yet.

DAVE SITTON: (R): Mr. Sitton has been a familiar name and voice in Tucson for a long time for his broadcasting (disclosure: I worked with him occasionally in that context) and community work. His website is davesitton.com, and here is his introductory video:

FRANK ANTENORI: (R) Sen. Antenori

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CORRECTION: (2:45PM): I neglected to mention that Wendy Rogers has also announced her candidacy for the Republican nomination. She also looks youthful, and I will have to ascertain her age and recalculate the average!)

As was widely expected, former Arizona Democratic Party Chair and unsuccessful candidate for State Treasurer Andrei Cherny launched his bid for the new 9th Congressional District today. He joins state senators David Schapira and Kyrsten Sinema in the primary battle.

Here is his launching video:

Cherny, Schapira and Sinema have just 102 years on this planet combined, being 36, 31, and 35, respectively. This primary battle will truly be "The Young Guns". The only announced Republican is Travis Grantham - who also looks to be pretty young, although his age was not readily available. (UPDATE: Mr. Grantham e-mailed Arizona's Politics to confirm that apparent youthfulness: he's only 32. Thus, the average age for the four candidates: 33.5.)

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The House of Representatives voted overwhelmingly (405-15) this morning on how to instruct its conferees to work with the Senate on continuing the temporary payroll tax cut; however, two of Arizona's Representatives - Ben Quayle (R-CD3) and Jeff Flake (R-CD6) - voted against it.

The continuation of the temporary payroll tax cut has been a lively political football that will continue to be in play even after the Patriots lost the Super Bowl. Both Quayle and Flake are involved in momentous campaign battles of their own this year - Quayle is challenging fellow first-termer David Schweikert (R-CD5)in a post-redistricting primary battle for the heart of the East Valley, and Flake is looking to replace Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ).

Arizona's Politics has asked both Congressman's offices for comments on their refusal to go along with their party's (and the House's) instructions to the conferees, and will update as needed.

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Wednesday, February 8, 2012

BREAKING: The White House issued a news release this afternoon announcing that President Obama will sign retired Rep. Gabrielle Giffords' final bill on Friday. Giffords, here husband, retired astronaut Mark Kelly, and Vice President Joe Biden will be in attendance at the signing of HR3801, the Ultralight Aircraft Smuggling Prevention Act of 2012.

Wednesday, February 1, 2012

Yesterday was the deadline for Congressional candidates to file their year-end (thru 12/31/11) financial reports. Many filed them early, some filed at the last minute and some of those may not yet be up on the FEC's website.
Here is a list of the candidates for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Jon Kyl (R-AZ) and whether or not their year-end finance report is posted yet:
Don Bivens - no
Wil Cardon - no
David Crowe - yes (switched races to run for House, CD3)
Jeff Flake - no
Ian Gilyeat - yes
Bryan Hackbarth - no
Jon Kyl - no (still has cash on hand, needs to file)
Douglas McKee - no (recently switched races to run for House, CD1)
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