I only looked at last year but it was a big flag to me. When you compare the PD ratio of Top DL linemen you will find Donald at the top last yr with a 3.04. When you split it out against AP ranked opponents it falls pretty Bad as shown below. It appears when he plays against quality teams / players his ratio takes a pretty good nose dive producing 2 sacks and 0 tackles for loss.

I know this is not all conclusive but confirms my concerns to me as to how he will hold up against larger and equally strong lineman.

Below is a few comments from scouting reports

I have stated many times I do not believe the senior bowl and combine should move you from top 5 or 6 to the best and I am not sold on Donald.

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Rookie

I agree with you. I find it telling that one of the things listed as a weakness is arm length. Emery always preaches length, size and athleticism. The more I research the more I want a trade down, but you need a partner for that. I like Gilbert and Pryor right now if it has to be at 14, but I'm sure that will change by May.

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Coordinator

SuperFanDBS Writer

I'll start by saying that Quarles shows up in the stats better here than I believed he might have. That said he also played with Clowney who drew all the attention and probably the majority of the double teams and chip blocks and that isn't analyzed by these stats so it becomes a judgment call that can probably only be determined by watching him play in person and also analyzing games tapes we don't have. The dude still has an ugly body and looks tubby. If being in shape and displaying athleticism are both as high on Emery's as he says Quarles may flunk his entry exam. Still, there has to be an interest in the kid either in the second round or late in the first in the unlikely event he trades down.

I've always had some issues with Donald's ability to do against NFL OG what he did in college but after the Sr. Bowl he dispelled at least some of those concerns. The best of the best, including several high first round OTs, couldn't keep him blocked and eventually those are all guys he'll be playing against. Donald also didn't have a Jadeveon Clowney attracting the double teams. On his team HE was the guy getting that treatment. This AP ranking is somewhat skewed towards players on team who played against ranked opponents as well which isn't something Donald could control. Pitt doesn't exactly play Div. II competition and just two games vs ranked opponents who may have had enough OL depth to double team him all game long doesn't tell us a whole lot either.

Look at how high Michael Sam ranked against on this list and yet at the Combine his workouts were extremely disappointing. Donald is small but very strong, quick, athletic and extremely fast of foot. Sam is also small but slow of foot and weak yet he shows as one of the more productive pass rushers in this draft class. If I'm a scout I'm far less worried about Donald's basic physical skills and measurable converting into NFL productivity than I am Sam's and where they rank as far as scouts are concerned reflects that.

There is some degree of risk with Donald as there is with all draft prospects but the skills and measurables he does have indicate that he's the real thing. If he was going to a team like Dallas that just lost most of it's best performing linemen and it was all on him to resurrect their line I'd be more concerned if my name was Rod Marinelli. But in Chicago he won't be expected to be an every down player. He'll be in a rotation with three other DTs all of whom are pretty damn good DTs and hopefully playing next to a very physical LDE with a pass rushing maniac with similar speed and athleticism playing SLB behind him. It's that combination of things, a good DL coach, and a good scheme that can make Donald more effective in Chicago than he might be otherwise.

I'm not as concerned by those things as you are but that's not to say I'm not concerned at all. Donald's immediate role will be as a pass rusher and disrupter and if Tucker is smart he'll get him into mismatches and line stunts where he can do just that. With this kids foot speed and burst I'd be stunting the hell out of him where he's basically unblocked but has a longer path to the QB. A DT who runs a 5.0 plus 40 won't get there but a guy who runs a 4.68 will with quickness off the snap will. The other thing to consider is that if team need to double team him that's gonna leave other's with single blocking or unblocked and even though that doesn't count in his stats it still wins games.

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Pro-Bowler

DBS Writer

Well, I couldn't open the link to cfbstats, so I'm not sure how you assembled the list as shown, but it looks like the guys at the top of that list are second tier guys. I mean, I like guys like Quarels, Tuitt, and Crichton, but not in the first. So, where do the other projected 1st round guys fall on this list? I do not see Nix or Hageman even on here. Are they even lower than Donald, or are they part of a bigger list that was not included here for space concerns? My point is, if the other guys aren't listed either, then how valid is this list and why isn't a guy like Quarles considered a top 10 pick? If we're worried about Donald going against the biggest and the best, I would point out that he was one of the top performers at the Senior Bowl.

I have the same concerns about his size as everyone else, but at the same time, you can't ignore tape either. Like I said, where do the other top guys rank as I don't see them either?

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Pro-Bowler

So, where do the other projected 1st round guys fall on this list? I do not see Nix or Hageman even on here

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Interestingly they did not show up on the list. Once again its top 75 and one year only. Many experts say the DT's are deep but not top notch. I am starting to believe that assessment. I can not answer how the list showed. My point is Donald is not a sure thing either as many believe. I can not say he will not be great as he had the highest overall PD ratio, which says he is good. I just question how it will translate at a higher level.

Here is live link hopefully it works better as I pulled it from the internet vs my spreadsheet.

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Coordinator

SuperFanDBS Writer

Interestingly they did not show up on the list. Once again its top 75 and one year only. Many experts say the DT's are deep but not top notch. I am starting to believe that assessment. I can not answer how the list showed. My point is Donald is not a sure thing either as many believe. I can not say he will not be great as he had the highest overall PD ratio, which says he is good. I just question how it will translate at a higher level.

Here is live link hopefully it works better as I pulled it from the internet vs my spreadsheet.

No draft prospect ever is a sure thing and your concerns about his size are shared by others was well including 32 NFL GMs I'm sure. This is a kid you have to take a leap of faith to draft over say and guy like Jernigan whose more the prototypical size. But I'll repeat what I just posted in the Quarles thread. If Aaron Donald was two inches taller and 10lbs heavier then with his stats and Combine measurables this kid would be right alongside Clowney as a potential top five pick and he'd never make it past ten.

It's that little bit of doubt his lack of prototypical size creates that's pushing him down a bit but he and Jernigan as the #1 and #2 DTs are still ranked far above the others on pro risk vs reward scouting reports. The only question I keep asking myself (and him too most likely) is whether or not Phil will take a flyer on another undersized DLineman. At least there was always the option to play McClellin at LB but that won't be the case with Donald. He's strictly a DT as I see it. The only way he'd ever play LB is if he dropped 40lbs.

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DaBears Ditka

SuperFanDBS Writer

The data showed top 75 players so 0 is because they did not show up in top 75 for sacks or tackles for loss in ranking for against AP or not against AP ranked teams.

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Lets also remember that he didn't jump up until after the season, so his career had said one thing, then 1 game after his college career over has rocketed him to a near top 10 pick, there are reasons to be leary of Donald. The #'s do look a bit skewed considering how many DE's seem to show up comparing to him. I don't see Hageman, Nix, Jernigan, Ferguson, Anthony Johnson, but do see guys like Sam, Ealy, Ford, Crichton who are all DE's.

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