Nissan is fully confident that its new 2018 LEAF will remain the world’s #1 selling electric car. This then implies that Nissan believes it will outsell the Tesla Model 3.

Despite slumping sales of late due to buyers awaiting the new LEAF, Nissan is as confident as ever that the 2018 version of the world’s #1 selling electric car will continue to be the global BEV sales kings.

New Nissan LEAF

At the Nissan Futures conference in Singapore, Nissan’s global electric vehicle director, Nicholas Thomas, confirmed that Nissan has no thoughts of handing over the sales crown.

Thomas stated:

“We’ve sold more than 350,000 [electric] cars around the world.We are the leading electric vehicle manufacturer around the world – we’ve sold more than anybody else.”

“The Nissan Leaf is already the world’s best-selling electric vehicle and now with this new version we’re introducing, we’re very, very confident that we are going to continue that position and keep going with a fantastic product.”

“We are delivering cars to customers in Japan, we are delivering cars to customers in Europe, we are just about to begin delivering cars to customers in the US, Canada, the rest of the region as we’ve announced.”

The great thing about the M3 is the price pressure it puts on the Leaf and Bolt. The 60 kWh Leaf is going to have to be a 30,000$ car once the base M3 is available. It will be hard to ask for 37500$ For a Bolt, without fast charging, without the cache’ of the a car floating through space. 😜.

“Don’t panic” is exactly the opposite of what the other car companies are doing right now.

I’ve found other companies’ responses to be quite rational. They know Tesla can’t make a Model 3 at $35K for two years, at which point their products will be cheaper, too. Tesla may outsell Nissan here and there, but worldwide Nissan will be very competitive, I think.

I’ve owned two LEAFs and found it to be a game changing products when it was first introduced. Not so much anymore, but the value is still there.

I see the serial Tesla bashers are busy moving their goal posts again.

First it was “Model 3 sales don’t count because they’re being sold only to employees”. Now it’s “Sales don’t count because the $35,000 base stripper trim level isn’t available”, and soon it will be “Sales don’t count because not that many people are ordering the $35,000 base stripper trim level with no options.”

But hey, at least tftf has admitted that he is a long-term TSLA short-seller. Give the devil his due; most of the hardcore Tesla Hater cultists won’t admit that.

Tftf. Yes I think the base Tesla Model 3 (TM3) will eventually be available. Legacy automakers like Nissan, have an extensive line of profitable ICE vehicles and a well developed infrastructure to support themselves- not so with Tesla. Tesla is a small manufacturer and has to maximize revenue with their limited production. Personally I think they should have limited early reservations to a fully loaded “Signature Model” and ‘promise’ a base model later.

I would take your bet “…Tesla will cancel it beyond a few token deliveries” Other than ‘later rather than sooner’ Tesla has kept to their word and fulfilled every promise it made to me over the past 5 years.

Regarding Tesla running out of Federal tax credit, that will undoubtedly happen. So what! TM3 is competing with premium ICE age vehicles , specifically BMW (3 Series), Audi (A4), and MB (C Class) not Nissan, GM, VW, Kia BEVs. Even without the $7,500 credit a TM3 will compare brilliantly against the Germans. BTW, what has GM and Nissan really accomplished using the tax credit – compared to Tesla?

Yesterday I saw another TM3 driving about. My passenger thought it was a Tesla Model S. What legacy automakers BEV would be confused with their top model? That is just one reason why the TM3 will fulfill its’ promise. That and the fact that Tesla is very aggressive about upgrading their software. My five year old Model S is a better car today than the day it was delivered. How many legacy automaker’s customers can say that.

LOL. Hey…. it is 2018 and Tesla is still around! Remember back in 2016 all the naysayers predicting Tesla would be insolvent before the end of 2017? Man you would think they would get tired of being wrong so often.

Tesla has five traditions: a bit late but they eventually get to the party, slow ramp up, they give preferential delivery to heavily optioned models in the beginning, they design and build compelling vehicles, and they are constantly upgrading their vehicles.

Nissan, on the other hand, designs and builds a good car and then ignores it for five+ years because the only competition is three times the price. No offense, Nissan is boasting they sold 300K+ BEVs compared to Tesla’s 200K+. Nissan better develop their “A” game, because 150 miles range, even at $30K, will not be such a bargain in 2-3 years. More competition is coming.

Tesla and their customers understand that a just because a Model 3 is born at $35K doesn’t mean it cannot be easily upgraded OTA. I think Tesla will deliver the base Model 3 and I think customers will buy them and sooner or later check some of those option boxes. Most legacy automakers did not start from scratch in the 21st Century, starting production line model in late 2012 and are under incredible pressure to show an instant profit. I understand Nissan took over five years to show a profit on their BEVs and they had the infrastructure in place.

I think they will build some base 3’s ,when demand decreases for higher optioned vehicles, but please don’t use the $35K price ,as the correct price is $36K.
I’m pretty impressed that Tesla is now over 1K a wk of 3’s,it looks like they have a decent chance to reach their goal of 25K a wk by April 1st,or come close enough. With these higher numbers ,we should see massive numbers of 3’s being shipped to Canada to stretch out the 200K limit on federal rebates.

Oh yeah… that’s what they are doing. Panicking. Oh no!! They might lose 50% of 1% of the total car market!!! OMG!!! What will they do??!!

Tesla has yet to equal the annual sales number of just ONE of the the top manufacture’s models production figures. I know, I know, Elon says “A million cars…!”, but for a million car production number you need a million customers. Do you really think there are a million car buyers *every year* that are going to buy $40-50,000 BEV cars?

Seriously, I love the Musk show too, just don’t let it go to your head too much. It’s fun to watch where Elon will take us next and seriously hope it is Mars! I love his drive and inspiration. I really care more about what he does with Space X than I do with whatever happens to Tesla. Just don’t believe the nonsense that Tesla is about wipe out the auto business.

Nissan will do just fine. I do believe they will be number 1 in the short term world wide with Leaf 2.0. Eventually others will catch up. GM could easily give them grief with a smaller battery pack in the Bolt. I also believe that VW is serious and will get up to speed with BEV offerings soon. They had their day of reckoning. Most other manufacturers haven’t yet.

I suppose it matters how you define it. Cumulative sales for a given model? Yeah, nobody is going to touch Nissan for awhile. Per year for a given model? Nissan Leaf probably still number one in 2018. Per month? Doubt that will last through 2018 but you never know. For the whole brand? Different calculus altogether.

3,000 will keep them at #1 (in the US charts). But the language from yesterday, combined with the delay of the short range model and the slow down of people saying they’re getting configure invites, makes me think that they’re still having major issues.

And while delivery times accelerated a bit in January, current delivery estimates (most) people are getting are 3-6 weeks after configure.

So if Tesla exceeds 1,000 / week every week this month, most of those sales will deliver in March.

Still, Model 3 will be the #1 seller for the year in the US at least. You can take that to the bank. 😉

Completely agree… the network of SuperChargers and the maturity of the cars, service network and the low overhead dealer net… ensures that Tesla will eventually win out. Nissan stands to build the EV market out also… but my own experience with a bone stock 2013 Leaf that my dealer couldn’t seem to test the battery of points to how lame the dealer/service network can be in Nissan’s net. Tesla by contrast, makes house calls.

Yeah, I believe Nissan. They are talking worldwide, and they know their markets. I wouldn’t be surprised if it was 2019 before the Model 3 outsells the Leaf in the US (despite the current head start Tesla has – I believe Nissan can and will ramp up faster). Worldwide, the Leaf will lead for years to come. Most of Tesla’s advantages are far less significant overseas.

Model 3 will get here. Eventually. Tesla needs more time than they planned to get their factory automation up to snuff. And then they will be able to build and sell the $35k Model 3 for a profit. Until then, they need to focus on the trims they can build and sell profitably.

Not long ago, I was predicting the Model 3 to outsell the Leaf in the US every month this year. With this latest delay, I’m second guessing that. It may be next year before the Model 3 takes the US sales crown. Meanwhile, the Leaf continues to defend its crown worldwide. The 2018 Leafs are selling well in Japan and Europe I hear.

Good grief, tftf, are you even going to keep carpet-bombing InsideEVs discussion threads with your serial anti-Tesla FUD posts when the article isn’t about Tesla at all?

WOW you must be absolutely horrified at all the money you’re losing because Tesla is successfully ramping up Model 3 production!

Did it ever occur to you that maybe, just maybe, it would be smart for you to get out of your TSLA “short” position and stay out?

Duh!

But if you want to keep banging your head against the wall, then quit whining about it. It’s your decision, after all; nobody is putting a gun to your head and forcing you to continue throwing money away on shorting TSLA stock.

They deliver albeit late like Tesla. I was at an exclusive VIP event hosted by Nissan in mid- October and amongst other przes they gave away several trips to the Smyrna plant for the production launch. They advised that it would be in mid-November. Production did not start at Smyrna until mid-December. I’m bullish on 2018 Leaf sales but don’t expect them to hit their stride until Q2.

Tesla reported negative margins on M3 yesterday. Like their competitors they don’t have a great incentive to produce high volumes with losses on the margin. EM says margins will be in line with expectations by end of year. With their lack of incentive and adjusted ramp expectations I don’t see Tesla delivering 150k M3s in 2018. At this point I’d put my money on NissanLeaf to outsell TM3 in 2018.

Yeah, it takes about two years to build a factory and fine-tune it for high production. I seriously doubt that Tesla has any magic wand to make that happen significantly faster, so that’s not going to happen this year.

Perhaps the factory will start producing in time to coincide with the start of Model Y production.

“My prediction is that Tesla will open a factory in China and build the less expensive models there”
What models are you referring to, exactly? Tesla only has 3, total. Or do you mean they will sell a unmentioned-until-now cheap BEV (like the ones that actually sell in China)?
Tesla is set up like a Silicon Valley startup — not to build stuff anywhere Musk can’t sleep at.

“That will free up build slots in Freemont to get the Model Y started next year.”
Oh, so this China factory will start producing in 2018 _already_? Even Tesla doesn’t have any plans like that. It takes years to build a new factory, not months, unless there are unused factories waiting… Not the case in China.

“they don’t have a great incentive to produce high volumes with losses on the margin”

That’s interesting. I understood Elon’s remark on the conference call to be that because the current volumes are so low, the margins are negative due to the expensive machinery cost, so, in contrast, they desperately need to produce in high volumes to gain positive margins and return on expensive investments.

That seems a reasonable explanation. EM did not elaborate still Elon has consistently over estimated their ramp. I believe he is now at least 4 for 4 on the M3 and I expect him to go 5 for 5. In the past when he has talked up production rates he has referred to peak rates achieved without explicitly stating that. What is more relevant are sustainable production rates and those have always been lower.

Yup, you describe quite well the benefit of ramping up production in the real world, so long as there is sufficient demand for greater production. Strange to see Gasbag make the comment you quoted, because it seems pretty clear it doesn’t apply to the Model 3, for which demand is exceedingly high.

That kind of comment would be expected from a Tesla basher, but Gasbag isn’t in that category, at least not that I’ve ever noticed.

Gasbag is not a hater and although I am a fan I don’t swing from Elon’s nuts. I was just surprised to hear Elon say margins were negative because it is fairly easy to say otherwise if it is simply a function of production numbers.

I take Elon’s admission of negative margins on the 3 as very bullish for Tesla,it’s undoubtably true, and his admission shows he’s not scared of it. Their costs will decrease fairly quickly not only from spreading costs over fixed costs but importantly, from the learning curve, which in this case, is pretty steep.
Lots of 3’s, where’s the Leaf? (you remember the Wendy’s commercials?).

At some point Tesla will have sorted out their problems and start pumping out cars. Nissan is really going to work hard to keep up with that.

It’s not impossible, maybe Tesla’s problems are bigger than thought, maybe Tesla’s customer base isn’t as big as it seems to be (especially considering the delay of the short range model) but I find it unlikely that Nissan will sell more LEAFs than model 3’s.

Some may remember the 40 kWh Tesla Model S from 2012 being pitched as a sub $50,000 EV (Post Federal Rebates), and it was, if you bought into the shortest range Model S in time, without any added options, before it was cancelled due to lack of demand for the 150 Mile range version at about 4-5% of all orders at the time, and lack of Superchrging, as planned!

So, really wondering if the $35,000 variant of the Model 3, will see a similar weak interest situation, and if Elon will let Tesla Keep it just for marketing benefits?

We expect the Tesla Hater cultists to keep repeating the Big Lie that Tesla is going to cancel the base $35,000 Model S trim level. It’s pretty disheartening to see some of those who should know better start to buy into that Big Lie.

Tesla cancelled the 40 kWh Model S because there was so little demand for it. Quite clearly there is a lot of demand for the Short Range Model 3, so insinuating Tesla is going to cancel that is nothing but FUD.

Unfortunately, it’s clearly successful FUD, Robert, because people like you are starting to repeat it! Please don’t be a “useful idiot” for the FUDsters.

So, really wondering if the $35,000 variant of the Model 3, will see a similar weak interest situation

That is a reasonable thing to ponder but you can rest assured that there will be strong demand for the stripper Tesla as long as SC infrastructure is unmatched and significant tax incentives are in place.

Many people got the wrong message from The weak demand for the low end S. A big part of a decently configured S is the prestige that you could afford a luxury car. A 4kWh S conveyed you couldn’t afford the car you wanted.

GM got the idea that range range and range were the three most important things for an EV hence the Bolt, an over priced EV disguised as an econobox.

Two great cars, two different niches.
We live in the city and our Leaf is a great urban car. It’s tall, easy to access and park, see ahead in traffic, with a big hatchback.
If I already had a car for that, and I needed a car for road trips, it would be the Model 3.
I sometimes miss being able to cruise at 75 without thinking about the range.

I sure hope the Leaf is the #1 selling EV this year. That would be great for EV growth! But I can think of a few Chinese models that might outsell the leaf this year even if the Model 3 doesn’t. So I’m not so sure that’s what they’re saying…

“The Nissan Leaf is already the world’s best-selling electric vehicle and now with this new version we’re introducing, we’re very, very confident that we are going to continue that position and keep going with a fantastic product.”

I think they’re saying the leaf will continue to be the “best selling EV of all time” all throughout this year. I don’t disagree with that. They’ll probably maintain that title next year also.

It will probably take 2 or 3 years at least for the Model 3 to catch up to the lifetime Leaf sales.

2018: 1st: BAIC EC 180 or Leaf2 2nd: BAIC EC 180 or Leaf2 3rd: Tesla Model 3
2019: no clue but not certain at all it will be Model 3. Seems Tesla has a crap structure costs that prevents them to make anything cost competitive and also has poor manufacturing skills so it may all depend on willingness to people in US to keep on sponsoring Tesla.
2020-2030: 1st: Chinese car model

It may be just because of Tesla’s inability to make enough of their popular car, but I think Nissan has a very good chance to win this one. I’d be very surprised if they don’t lead global sales halfway into the year at least.

Really? I don’t think so.
Tesla will do what they did to the market they are now entering the same way they did to the Luxury market.
It will just take longer.
Dozens of evs, do you mean models by 2020? You must be listening to GM & Ford. Who is making them? Anyway…
Good to see you are still kicking around.

In regard to the abysmal sales of Leaf and Bolt January 2018, both down sharply, though the Leaf has been dropping for months, people who think or say otherwise, are not really keeping up with current events.
They just got their …. kicked.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p2-fFJM6jtE

Nissan Leaf will continue to be Number 1 in worldwide sales since it’s the same model name – duh?

The Tesla M3 will sell well but the Model Y is what will surpass it and that’s a long ways away!

Maybe Tesla will sell more if you count Roadster, Model S, Model 3, and Model Y sales combined, but when you currently sell Model 3’s for $50-60K and your competition sells for ALMOST half @ $30K you need DOUBLE the amount of sales just to EQUAL, let alone beat them!

But like smart minds have said here before, it does not matter WHO sells EVs, just that they sell MORE!

Part of that isn’t true already, and none of it will be true a year from now.

Tesla certainly will sell every car it can make, and I hope Nissan can sell every Leaf it makes, too. Whether or not people choose to compare and/or contrast the two cars may make for an interesting discussion, but it’s not going to alter the reality that plug-in EVs are competing much, much more with gasmobiles than they are with each other.

You’re right, I only have my common sense that lack of delivery of the Model 3 is shedding customers over to the Leaf. But it only makes sense that since almost 2 years ago they said it would be 18-24 months (which would be right now) when the orders would be ROLLING in. And here we are, no closer to the 18-24 month mark.

Sure, there’s been some token deliveries. If those are considered significant when there is/was 400k pre-orders, then I can see why you’re confused..

Test drove the Nissan Leaf SV. Great car. 130 miles Aer in the winter here in ohio in 20F weather. Droves smooth. Great acceleration. Dealer didnt know what she was talking about. Dodnt let me try the e-pedel because she thought it was emergency brake or the pro-pilot. Didnt let me drive on the freeway either😒 since most of my driving to work is on the freeway. She didnt know about the lease deal. 37K for fully package SV, nah. Bolt is a better deal for LT and fast charge. I’ll wait when our third car, nissan altima comes off our lease and trade it in for SV.

My stealership experience was just as bad. I wish Nissan could sell directly, because NO ONE at any of the 3 dealers near me knows anything about the Leaf, or wants to, in the 4 years I’ve owned mine. And yes, they still try to sell me the oil change and fluid replacement service plan …

The problem with the Model 3 is that it is not really practical (no hatch, rear seat too low), many seem not ready with this center console/screen only concept. Also it seems rather poorly assembled. Finally it is just too expensive so I just don’t see it as a good candidate for a mass produced EV. I think that indeed on a worldwide basis Leaf 2 will do much better than Model 3 in 2018.

“The Nissan Leaf is already the world’s best-selling electric vehicle… we’re very, very confident that we are going to continue that position and keep going with a fantastic product.”

If Nissan cherry-picks only cumulative (global) sales numbers, then they will be able to continue making this claim for some time; almost certainly into sometime next year. Even if Tesla manages to make 200,000 Model 3’s this year, which I think unlikely, cumulative sales of the Leaf will easily exceed that number. As the article states, cumulative Leaf sales recently passed the 300,000 mark.

Test drove the 2018 LEAF tonight. Its a nice car, especially now that the base Model 3 isn’t happening for another year at best.

Handling good, acceleration good, lots of features with the tech package. Interior looks and feels good. Its just like the old LEAF but better in most ways I can think of.

If they end up with some good lease deals it may be a worthwhile option until a LEAF with TMS shows up or the Model 3 maybe shows up anywhere near this price range in 3 years. A $60,000 Model 3 doesn’t compete with a $30,000 LEAF.

Nissan is manufacturing Leaf in 3 plants across 3 continents. And definitely they will try to sell as many units as possible. I don’t think Model 3 can go close to Leaf in sales. Nissan sold 3,768 Leafs in Japan last month which is more than all Model 3 sold so far. Anyway let the competition heat up and that’s good for the EVs.