3 ICG Europe Report N June 2004 MOLDOVA: REGIONAL TENSIONS OVER TRANSDNIESTRIA EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS Resolving the Trandniestrian secessionist dispute in Moldova is vital to remove a potential source of chaos on the periphery of the expanding European Union, to implement an important part of the post- Cold War settlement, and to make Moldova itself a more viable state. Greater U.S. and EU engagement with the stalled peace process is essential to bring a settlement to this impoverished and unstable part of Europe. Russia's support for the self-proclaimed and unrecognised Dniestrian Moldovan Republic (DMR) has prevented resolution of the conflict and inhibited Moldova's progress towards broader integration into European political and economic structures. In its recent and largely unilateral attempts to resolve the Transdniestrian conflict, Russia has demonstrated almost a Cold War mindset. Despite comforting rhetoric regarding Russian-European Union (EU) relations and Russian-U.S. cooperation on conflict resolution and peacekeeping within the Newly Independent States of the former Soviet Union (NIS), old habits appear to die hard. Russia remains reluctant to see the EU, U.S. or the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) play an active role in resolving the conflict because Moldova is still viewed by many in Moscow as a sphere of exclusively Russian geopolitical interest. It has not been difficult for Russia to exploit Moldova's political and economic instability for its own interests. Despite having accepted concrete deadlines for withdrawing its troops, Russia has repeatedly back-pedalled while trying to force through a political settlement that would have ensured, through unbalanced constitutional arrangements, continued Russian influence on Moldovan policymaking and prolongation of its military presence in a peacekeeping guise. It has so far been unwilling to use its influence on the DMR leadership to promote an approach to conflict resolution that balances the legitimate interests of all parties. Ukrainian and Moldovan business circles have become adept at using the parallel DMR economy to their own ends, regularly participating in reexport and other illegal practices. Some have used political influence to prevent, delay, and obstruct decisions which could have put pressure on the DMR leadership to compromise. These include abolition of tax and customs regulations favourable to the illegal re-export business, enforcement of effective border and customs control, and collection of customs and taxes at internal "borders". With backing from Russian, Ukrainian and Moldovan economic elites, the DMR leadership has become more assertive. Recognising that international recognition is unlikely, it has focused on preserving de facto independence through a loose confederation with Moldova. Unfortunately, DMR leaders -- taking advantage of contradictions in the tax and customs systems of Moldova and the DMR -- continue to draw substantial profits from legal and illegal economic activities including reexports, smuggling and arms production. The DMR has become a self-aware actor with its own interests and strategies, possessing a limited scope for independent political manoeuvre but an extensive web of economic and other links across Russia, Moldova, and Ukraine. However, it remains heavily dependent on Russian political and economic support and does not like to put itself in a position where it must act counter to Russian policy. Russian and DMR interests often overlap but in some instances DMR leaders have been able to design and implement strategies to avoid Russian

4 ICG Europe Report N 157, 17 June 2004 Page ii pressure, delay negotiations, obstruct Russian initiatives, and undermine Russian policies by playing up disagreements between the co-mediators and capitalising on alternative sources of external support. Russia's most recent attempt to enforce a settlement -- the Kozak Memorandum in October and November has shown that its influence, while pervasive, has clear limits. Russia is unable to push through a settlement without the support of Moldova and the international community, especially key players such as the OSCE, EU, and the U.S. A comprehensive political settlement requires an approach that can bridge the differences between Russia and other key international actors while fairly considering the interests of both the Moldovan government and the DMR. Despite an understanding that Russia should not be antagonised, the gravitational pull of European integration is strong in Moldova. Recently, even its communist leadership has stressed the need to do more to achieve that goal. The country has rarely been on Western radar screens during the last decade, however, and it will need more demonstrable EU and U.S. backing if it is to resist Russian political and material support for the DMR and Transdniestrian obstruction of the negotiation process. International actors must also help Moldova to secure its own borders against the illicit economic activities which keep Transdniestria afloat and affect its European neighbours as well. The conflict can only be resolved if the international community uses its influence on Russia bilaterally and within the OSCE. Only then, and with a substantially more determined commitment to political, economic and administrative reform on its own part, will Moldova be able to realise its European aspirations. A comprehensive strategy towards Moldova, Ukraine and Russia within the EU's Wider Europe Policy would be a critical first step. RECOMMENDATIONS To Moldova: 1. Control the internal traffic of goods from Transdniestria by collecting taxes and customs duties at internal mobile and stationary customs posts on all transport routes until joint Ukrainian-Moldovan posts are set up and invite international observers to help monitor and police the border with Ukraine. 2. Develop effective anti-corruption programs for customs, border guard, and tax services, and police. To the authorities of the "Dniestrian Moldovan Republic": 3. Engage in constructive dialogue with the OSCE and the government of Moldova. To Russia: 4. Withdraw troops from Moldova in line with international commitments. 5. Agree with Moldova, the OSCE and EU on deployment after the troop withdrawal of a modest international peacekeeping and/or policing operation with participation of forces from the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and from elsewhere, under OSCE supervision. 6. Offer a partial write-off of both Moldovan and Transdniestrian gas debts as an incentive element in the eventual settlement. 7. Exert political and economic influence on the DMR leadership to accept a reasonable political settlement and work with the OSCE, EU and U.S. to implement financial sanctions on the DMR leadership. To Ukraine: 8. Crack down on smuggling to, from and through Transdniestria by agreeing to establish joint customs posts with Moldova -- on Moldovan territory in areas controlled by Moldova and on Ukrainian territory between the Ukraine and the DMR. 9. Develop effective anti-corruption programs for the customs, border guard and tax services, as well as police.

5 ICG Europe Report N 157, 17 June 2004 Page iii To the OSCE, EU and the U.S.: 10. Press Ukraine, as part of its accession process to the World Trade Organisation, to agree with Moldova on joint customs posts as outlined above. 11. Urge Moldova and Ukraine: a) to invite international observers to the Transdniestrian-Moldovan controlled sections of the Ukrainian-Moldovan border to ensure transparency about the flow of goods across this border; and b) to task these observers not only with monitoring application of relevant customs procedures and collection of duties and taxes, but also with assisting in patrolling the unmarked border and combating smuggling and re-exports. 12. Work with Russia, bilaterally and within the framework of the OSCE, to coordinate its mediator role within the existing fivesided negotiation format. To the U.S. and EU: 13. Continue to make the ratification of the adapted Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty conditional on the complete withdrawal of Russian troops from Moldova. 14. Support Ukraine and Moldova, through the relevant EU Action Plans and within the framework of the OSCE, to develop effective anti-corruption programs, particularly within the customs, border guard and tax services and police. Chisinau/Brussels, 17 June 2004

6 ICG Europe Report N June 2004 MOLDOVA: REGIONAL TENSIONS OVER TRANSDNIESTRA I. INTRODUCTION Many observers trace the intractability of the Transdniestrian conflict directly to the vested interests of political and economic circles in Russia and Ukraine but also Moldova itself. The unrecognised Dniestrian Moldovan Republic (DMR) relies heavily on external political and material support. 1 However, its position within Russian and Ukrainian foreign policy is often oversimplified, as is its own attitude towards these regional powers. Moldova's political opposition commonly portrays the DMR leadership as only interested in doing Moscow's bidding. 2 To understand the more complex reality requires analysis of the economic and political forces that drive the DMR leadership's policies. From its beginning, the secessionist movement has sought to mobilise external support, with Russia and Ukraine, the main powers in the region, its key targets. Moscow and Kiev have legitimate interests in Moldova. Russia has been particularly keen to avoid political and military isolation in Europe as a result of the enlargements of the North Atlantic 1 The DMR is neither territorially fully congruous with the Transdniestrian region, nor does it fully encompass or legitimately represent the region's population. The term DMR is used in this report for all references to the unrecognised Dniestrian Moldovan Republic entity, its quasi-state structures and leadership. The term "Transdniestria" is used when reference is made to the geographical region, its population and socio-economic structures. For a concise history of the conflict, see ICG Europe Report N o 147, Moldova: No Quick Fix, 12 August See, for example, Oazu Nantoi, "Diplomatic polemics in the absence of a real interest", Moldova Azi, 19 August 2003, at Vladimir Socor, "Double-Cross on the Road to Maastricht", Wall Street Journal, 21 November Treaty Organisation (NATO) and European Union (EU). There are also still elements within particularly the Kremlin's power ministries -- intelligence, defence and foreign affairs -- that take a classical Great Power approach to the world rather than one of multilateral and bilateral cooperation with equal partners. Moldova has not been the only former Soviet republic to be caught between its aspirations for European integration and Russian strategic interests. A wide array of actors play both sides against the middle by maintaining ties with both the Moldovan government and the DMR in an effort to preserve lucrative -- and often illegal -- trading arrangements made possible by the DMR's parallel economy and customs policies. Their web of economic and political interests at times produces what appear to be contradictory approaches toward resolving Moldova's division. Though Russian political and economic circles have been key in supporting the Transdniestrian secessionist movement and nurturing the development of quasi-independent government structures, the DMR has evolved. It no longer relies solely on Russian largesse and has some scope for manoeuvre well beyond the axis with its patron. The DMR leadership has consistently tried to diversify its external support and, in recent years, this has paid dividends in the form of greater backing from Ukraine. Shadowy business figures in Ukraine, Moldova and Russia alike, who have become rich by exploiting the economic loopholes created by the DMR's status, constitute a wellfinanced lobby that wishes to uphold the status quo. Over time, the DMR leadership has developed political and economic aspirations that differ in a number of respects from Russia's. The DMR is useful for Moscow only so long as it remains a part of Moldova and thus provides leverage that can be applied against the government in Chisinau.

7 ICG Europe Report N 157, 17 June 2004 Page 2 Independence has never been Russia's preferred option. Instead, it has sought a special legal status for Transdniestria within the country while engaging in negotiations with Moldova on a range of strategic issues. 3 The DMR leadership, by way of contrast, has shown absolutely no desire to reintegrate with Moldova. In general, Moldova has been eager to strike a balance between east and west, engaging in economic and political cooperation with both the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and Western states and organisations. It joined the CIS in February 1994 and the NATO Partnership for Peace program a month later, and signed a Partnership and Co-operation Agreement with the EU in November In October 1997 it joined with Georgia, Ukraine and Azerbaijan to form the GUAM group, which expanded to include Uzbekistan in 1999, and with U.S. and NATO support, aims to balance Russian dominance within the CIS area. 4 This report analyses the motivations governing Russian and Ukrainian policy towards Moldova and the DMR and outlines the attempts by DMR officials to enhance their influence in those two countries. Particular attention is devoted to Russia's unilateral effort to push through a settlement in 2003 (the "Kozak Memorandum" affair). Lastly, the report repeats the practical policy proposals for breaking the stalemate previously advanced by ICG, 5 with a strong emphasis on tackling the illegal business activity that sustains the DMR. II. RUSSIA'S ROLE An emerging Transdniestrian autonomy movement began to lobby Soviet central authorities in Its leadership was largely made up of directors of regional state enterprises and Moldovan Soviet Socialist Republic Supreme Soviet deputies and other party and local council functionaries. Many had only been dispatched to Moldova during the last decades of Soviet rule. 6 Most were closely connected to the conservative central Soviet institutions that were opposed to Mikhail Gorbachev's reform agenda and to the demands of Soviet Republics for sovereignty. The stridency of Moldovan calls for independence or reunification with Romania enabled the Transdniestrian autonomy movement to mobilise support from Soviet central authorities. Its aims and theirs converged in so far as both wanted to keep Moldova within the Soviet Union and to preserve the privileged position of its Russian speakers. On 2 September 1990, only two months after Moldova had declared itself sovereign (though still within the USSR), Soviet Interior Ministry troops mobilised to protect the Second Congress of People's Deputies of all Levels of the Transdniestrian Region as they proclaimed the Dniestrian Moldovan Soviet Socialist Republic, soon known as the DMR. 7 During this period, the leaders of the Transdniestrian movement and members of the Supreme Soviet, the KGB and the Soviet defence and interior ministries discussed a number of strategies including direct military and security service interventions. 8 Moscow attempted to prevent Moldova from leaving the USSR by threatening it with territorial losses. On 25 November 1990, Soviet Interior Ministry troops protected elections for a Supreme Soviet of 3 ICG interview, Moscow, 28 October Taras Kuzio, "Geopolitical Pluralism in the CIS: The Emergence of GUUAM", European Security, Vol. 9 (2000), No. 2, pp In ICG Report, Moldova: No Quick Fix. 6 Two early leaders of the movement had only arrived during the Gorbachev era. Igor Smirnov, the DMR's current "president", came to Moldova in November 1987 as director of the Elektromash factory in Tiraspol, and Anatoli Belitchenko, director of the Moldovan Metallurgical Factory in Rybnitsa, arrived in These two factories and their leaders spearheaded protests against downgrading the status of the Russian language and later helped lead the autonomy and secessionist movements. 7 The DMSSR was renamed DMR on 5 November For ease of use, DMR is used throughout the text. 8 ICG interview, Moscow, 28 October 2003.

8 ICG Europe Report N 157, 17 June 2004 Page 3 the breakaway DMR. In April 1991, the Chairman of the USSR Supreme Soviet, the director of the KGB, and the Soviet ministers of interior and defence discussed a DMR request to dissolve Moldovan law enforcement bodies in the region. 9 In May 1991, separate Transdniestrian police (militsia), prosecutors and Supreme Court were established, and all law enforcement organs were put under Transdniestrian jurisdiction. Officers of the 14 th Soviet Guard Army distributed weapons to workers' militias in Tiraspol, Rybnitsa and Dubasari. 10 The legislative basis for the Transdniestrian banking, financial and tax systems was established in April The Soviet Agroprombank established the first separate Transdniestrian bank, which operated as the region's central bank until early Transdniestrian enterprises opened accounts in commercial banks in the nearby Ukrainian city of Odessa, thus laying the foundations for a separate Transdniestrian "state" budget. 11 Despite the failure of the August 1991 coup by Russian communist hardliners, conservative circles within the Supreme Soviet of the Russian Federation, the security services, the economic ministries and the military continued to support the DMR and dominate Russian foreign policy. A. THE YELTSIN ERA Russia's new leadership was understandably wary of a DMR that relied heavily on hard-line communist factions and initially took an anti- Transdniestrian stance in the Moldovan conflict. Between Chisinau's declaration of independence in August 1991 and the spring of 1992, it did not interfere with Moldova's ambitions to move towards the West, perhaps not least because it feared that a heavy-handed approach might alienate its new partners in the U.S. and Europe. 12 However, escalation of the Transdniestrian conflict in the spring of 1992, the perceived vulnerability of the 25 million Russians who were living outside Russia's borders, increasing tensions between the newly independent former Soviet states (NIS) and escalation of conflicts in the Caucasus, all led to a re-evaluation. Moscow's political intervention to halt the Transdniestria conflict in July 1992 was driven at least as much by domestic considerations, and by Boris Yeltsin's desire to stabilise the situation inside Russia, as by any goals of geostrategic dominance. A new pragmatic nationalist foreign policy consensus had emerged in Russia by spring 1993, which involved a much more interventionist approach to what was called the Near Abroad. 13 This was driven by a desire to prevent Moldova from uniting with Romania and to keep it within the Russian sphere of influence by integrating it into the CIS. Russia also sought to minimise the influence of Romania and the West in Moldova and the CIS as whole, while preserving its own military presence there. There was also considerable nationalist pressure to protect Moldova's significant Russian minority by whatever means necessary. Russia's Moldova policy has remained centred on these concerns, though its tactics have occasionally been tweaked so as not to alienate the West unduly. 14 Suspicious of Russia's efforts to re-establish hegemony, Moldova has taken a rather jaundiced view of the CIS, fearing that integration into it would hamper efforts to join Western European political and economic structures. Moldova limited its participation in the CIS to the economic cooperation that dependence on Russian and CIS markets required, resisted CIS military and security 9 TransNistria, No. 20, June 1992, p. 3, citing documents confiscated by the Soviet General Prosecutor from the August putsch leaders. 10 Vasile Nedelciuc, Respublika Moldova (Chisinau, 1992), p V.Ya. Grosul / N.V. Babilunga / B.G. Bomeshko et al, Istoriya Pridnestrovskoj Moldavskoj Respubliki, vol. 2, II (Tiraspol, 2001), pp Allen C. Lynch, "The Evolution of Russian Foreign Policy in the 1990s", The Journal of Communist Studies and Transition Politics, Vol. 18 (2002), No. 1, p Andranik Migranyan, "Rossiya i blizhnee zarubezh'e", Nezavisimaya gazeta, 12 January For a detailed account of the reformulation process see Johan Matz, Constructing a Post-Soviet International Political Reality. Russian Foreign Policy toward the Newly Independent States (Uppsala, 2001). 14 Allen Lynch, "The Realism of Russia's Foreign Policy", Europe-Asia Studies, vol. 53 (2001), No. 1, p. 8; Lynch, "The Evolution of Russian Foreign Policy", op. cit., p. 162.

9 ICG Europe Report N 157, 17 June 2004 Page 4 cooperation and demanded an end to Russian military presence on its soil. In response, Russia adopted a policy that has been termed "armed suasion", including military pressure, and both positive and negative political and economic inducements designed to protect its strategic interests. 15 From its beginning, the DMR has played an important role in this approach. The threat of an independent DMR is useful whenever Moldova strays too far. Conversely, the promise of resolving the conflict is held up as the prize for Moldovan cooperation. Russia's military intervention in June 1992 on the Transdniestrian side, as well as the July 1992 Russian-Moldovan Moscow Agreement on peaceful settlement of the conflict, helped to end the fighting. 16 However, this settlement came at a price for Moldova. The deployment of a Russianled peacekeeping operation effectively froze the status quo of de facto DMR independence. It also afforded the DMR protection to develop its quasistate structures. Russia was less than impartial as peacekeeper, not intervening when the DMR established border and customs posts and deployed an armed battalion in Bendery. It insisted on consensus between itself, Moldova and the DMR on most operational decisions. This meant an effective DMR veto on issues such as whether peacekeepers should intervene over the border posts. The Moscow Agreement effectively enshrined Russia as mediator and excluded Romania and Ukraine from the settlement process. 17 During , Russia exerted considerable pressure on Moldova to join the CIS, while providing further support to the DMR. In February 1992, a Transdniestrian cash settlement centre was established within the Central Bank of Russia, which enabled Transdniestrian enterprises to bypass the National Bank of Moldova for international financial transactions. Extensive Russian grants and credits were provided to the DMR, as well as material support ranging from food to raw materials. At the same time, Russia signalled that it might accept the Moldovan position in peace talks if the government complied with its demands. In April 1993, Boris Yeltsin issued a decree breaking off official contacts with the DMR. 18 However, when the Moldovan parliament failed to ratify the Almaty Protocol, 19 Russia and other CIS countries responded by imposing high taxes on Moldovan imports in August This had a serious effect on the economy. The taxes were only lifted after President Mircea Snegur signed economic and political CIS agreements in autumn In February 1994, a new Moldovan parliament ratified the Almaty Protocol. Yeltsin's decree and his disenchantment with the DMR leadership after its armed support for his opponents during the October 1993 crisis (the siege of the "White House" in Moscow) did have some practical effects. The Russian Central Bank froze Transdniestrian assets and stopped supplying roubles. Defence Minister Grachev ordered the 14 th Army commander, General Aleksandr Lebed, to sever relations with the "criminal DMR government", accusing its leadership of corruption and involvement in the illegal arms trade. 20 Despite this, Yeltsin and the foreign ministry were quick to differentiate between leadership "bandits" and the Transdniestrians, who were portrayed as compatriots in need. 21 A number of Russian officials maintained close relations with DMR authorities, and many economic links were unchanged. 1. The troops issue The louder the Moldovan calls for withdrawal of Russian troops, the more Russia began to view those troops as important assets. Unsurprisingly, both Russian and DMR officials increasingly insisted that withdrawal coincide with a political resolution of the conflict. This armed Russia and the DMR with a strong weapon during 15 Dov Lynch, Russian Peacekeeping Strategies in the CIS, The Cases of Moldova, Georgia and Tajikistan (Houndmills et al., 2000), pp ICG Report, Moldova: No Quick Fix, op. cit. Essentially it is clear that the 14 th Army, under Lebed's command, was not entirely under Moscow's control 17 Both nations had participated in an abortive quadrilateral mediation mechanism from March 1992 onward. 18 Trudavoy Tiraspol, No. 15/1993, April The Almaty Protocol established the Commonwealth of Independent States. Moldova signed it on 21 December 1991but did not ratify until February Lynch, Russian Peacekeeping Strategies in the CIS, op. cit., p Matz, Constructing a Post-Soviet International Political Reality, op. cit., pp

10 ICG Europe Report N 157, 17 June 2004 Page 5 negotiations. Russia continued to support the DMR and refrained from influencing the DMR leadership toward compromise. Instead, it played the part of powerless mediator, unable to overcome DMR obstruction and forced to keep its troops in Moldova because of the purported risk of renewed conflict. In October 1994 the principle of synchronisation -- withdrawal of troops concurrent with a political settlement -- was included in a Russian-Moldovan agreement that guaranteed the 14 th Army would leave within three years. However, before the end of the year and against the background of NATO enlargement, Russia began a campaign to keep its military base in Moldova. The Duma never ratified the agreement, and the Russian government insisted that it had never come into force. Instead, Russia continued to call for synchronisation. 22 Between 1992 and 1994 Russia pressed Moldova to grant the 14 th Army a peacekeeping mandate. Russia hoped to avoid its obligation under the CFE Treaty to withdraw or destroy various categories of arms and equipment in Moldova by converting its troops into peacekeepers. 23 Between 1992 and 1999, Russia and the DMR leadership shared an interest in the continued Russian military presence in Transdniestria. It served Russia's perception of its own strategic interests while protecting the Transdniestrians and the fledgling DMR. DMR authorities claimed ownership of all assets -- arms, ammunition and equipment -- of the former Soviet army on its territory and demanded compensation if they were withdrawn or destroyed. 24 In February 1995, DMR leader Smirnov issued a decree forbidding the withdrawal of Russian army property from Transdniestria. In a referendum the next month, 93.3 per cent of voters backed the presence of Russian armed forces. 25 By deploying DMR armed forces and checkpoints around Russian military facilities, the DMR showed it was prepared to obstruct any withdrawal. This was tacitly accepted by Russia, since it suited the interests of those Russian political forces who wanted a permanent military base in the region. In the same year, the 14 th Army was reorganised into the Operational Group of Russian Forces (OGRF) and considerably reduced, a decision driven both by budgetary concerns and a sense that Transdniestria was of declining strategic value. 26 Russia also hoped this would make it easier for Moldova to accept a permanent military base. 27 Between 1992 and 1999, the troops decreased from 9,250 to 2,600 and a significant amount of munitions were destroyed, 28 while Russia repeatedly emphasised its peacekeeper role. With the appointment of Yevgeny Primakov as foreign minister in January 1996, Russia began to use more diplomacy to advance national security. 29 It became less willing to bear the primary costs of CIS reintegration and pushed for this to occur at different speeds within a core of willing states, including via the Customs Union (Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and later Tajikistan) and the Russia-Belarus Union. 30 Russia also placed 22 The CSCE/OSCE has never accepted the principle of synchronisation, but in December 1994 stated in its Budapest summit decision on Moldova that the two processes were parallel and should not impede each other. See 23 The Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (generally referred to as the CFE Treaty), signed in Paris on 19 November 1990, by the 22 members of NATO and the former Warsaw Pact, is an arms control treaty which established parity in major conventional forces/armaments between the former Cold War opponents. The 30 CFE States Parties are: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Kazakhstan, Luxembourg, Moldova, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Spain, Turkey, Ukraine, the United Kingdom, and the United States. 24 William Hill,Making Istanbul a reality: Moldova, Russia, and the withdrawal from Transdniestria", Helsinki Monitor, vol. 13 (2002), No. 2, p Mihai Gribincea, The Russian Policy on Military Bases: Georgia and Moldova (Oradea, 2001), p As confirmed by OGRF Commander Evnevich in June 1999, Flux, 29 June Lynch, Russian Peacekeeping Strategies in the CIS, op. cit., p A substantial number of demobilised officers and soldiers joined the DMR armed forces or stayed in the region as military pensioners. 29 Jakub M. Godzimirski, "Russian National Security Concepts 1997 and 2000: A Comparative Analysis, European Security, Vol. 9 (2000), No. 4, pp. 80, Olga Alexandrova, "Schwierige Restauration alter Abhängigkeiten. Russlands Politik gegenüber der GUS", Osteruopa, vol. 51 (2001), No. 4-5, p. 461.

11 ICG Europe Report N 157, 17 June 2004 Page 6 greater emphasis on its economic interests and financial cooperation. This approach did not exclude, however, pressure through Russian financial institutions or energy enterprises, especially Gazprom. 31 In Moldova, Primakov initiated negotiations on a memorandum entitled "Bases for Normalisation of Relations between the Republic of Moldova and Transdniestria" in This was signed in Moscow in May after Russia put decisive pressure on DMR leaders for the first time. It stipulated that Moldova and Transdniestria would build a "common state". While the DMR has often been able to influence the margins of Russian policy, it has been largely unable and unwilling to run directly counter to it. 33 As international pressure grew, President Yeltsin agreed at the November 1999 summit of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) in Istanbul that all CFE limited arms and equipment were to be withdrawn or destroyed by the end of 2001 and all Russian troops withdrawn by the end of B. THE PUTIN POLICY Under President Vladimir Putin, policy towards the CIS became even more pragmatic as Russia looked to regain lost influence and limit interference in its Near Abroad. While abandoning full CIS reintegration, Moscow has instead focused on securing bilateral agreements to ensure its influence. 34 It has also sought to secure Russian as the second state language throughout the CIS while protecting the access of Russian minorities to the media and Russian language education. 35 Russia has worked hard to achieve a political settlement before withdrawal and to position itself as the main guarantor of such a settlement in order 31 Johannes Baur, "Zurück zur Großmacht? Ziele und Handlungsoptionen der Außenpolitik", in: Hans-Hermann Höhmann / Hans-Henning Schröder (Ed.), Russland unter neuer Führung (Münster, 2001), pp ICG Report, Moldova: No Quick Fix, op. cit., pp ICG interview, Chisinau, 2 October Later, however, the DMR leadership re-interpreted the memorandum against its word and spirit. 34 Alexandrova, "Schwierige Restauration", op. cit, pp Osnovnye napravleniya razvitiya otnoshenij Rossii s gosudarstvami-uchastnikami Sodruzhestva Nezavisimyh Gosudarstv na sovremennom etape, p.11. to retain decisive influence over Moldova. The suspicion exists in Chisinau that this influence would be used to slow Moldova's European integration through specific constitutional arrangements as well as to prolong a military presence in the form of a sizeable Russiandominated peacekeeping operation. President Putin has made a conscious effort to bring all government agencies into line on Moldova policy. In June 2000, he formed a special commission under the chairmanship of Primakov to coordinate an approach to the negotiations. In August 2000, Primakov presented Moldova and the DMR with an official proposal that advanced, in relatively vague terms, a loose federation, resembling a confederation in important respects. Most important powers were defined as shared competencies to be regulated by agreements between the government and the DMR. This would have given the DMR extensive influence over Moldovan government policy and so at the same time have guaranteed an important role for Russia. 36 Primakov proposed to increase Russian peacekeepers to 2,600 (then the size of the OGRF), while including Ukrainian troops and OSCE observers but not non-cis troops in the mission. However, the proposal stalled largely due to dilatory Moldovan and DMR tactics and Moldova's internal political crisis at the end of The DMR leadership managed to resist Russian pressure by playing on disagreements between the co-mediators (Russia, Ukraine and the OSCE) and using the political crisis in Chisinau to stall negotiations. That attempts to bring the DMR leadership along by threatening to back internal DMR opposition failed highlighted that Transdniestria does not simply do Moscow's bidding. Primakov opened a branch office of the Russian pro-putin Unity party in Bendery, joining together a significant number of influential directors of Transdniestrian state enterprises. In October 2000 this group (Transdniestrian Unity) tried to register for the Supreme Soviet elections and published an open letter to Putin supporting OGRF withdrawal and 36 ICG interview, Chisinau, 6 October The then Moldovan president Petru Lucinschi was locked in constitutional gridlock with the parliament from July 2000 until the Communist victory in the February 2001 early parliamentary elections.

12 ICG Europe Report N 157, 17 June 2004 Page 7 more Russian peacekeepers. Leading representatives visited Moscow and reportedly met with Primakov. The group then concluded a cooperation agreement with the Russian Embassy in Chisinau to assist residents of Bendery seeking Russian citizenship, while Moscow also started to work with the DMR's leftist opposition. Threatened with significant opposition in the Supreme Soviet elections, the DMR leadership responded quickly. As the political crisis in Moldova heightened and President Putin and his government were forced to await the outcome of the parliamentary elections, DMR leaders felt emboldened to crack down on their own opposition. Transdniestrian Unity was denied registration, its candidates were prevented from running, and its leaders were reportedly "invited" to meet individually with Smirnov and his security minister, Antyufeev. 38 In the aftermath of these meetings, most state enterprise directors distanced themselves from the group. In early 2001 the three main leftist opposition organisations were taken to court. They were banned in December 2001 and February Although the victory of the Party of Communists of the Republic of Moldova (PCRM) in the parliamentary elections of spring 2001, and the election of its first secretary, Vladimir Voronin, as president seemed to offer Russia the chance to pursue its proposal, the Primakov commission was instead dissolved. Russian pressure was, however, crucial in persuading the DMR leadership to accept the withdrawal and destruction of CFE-limited equipment by the end of Russia had a fundamental interest in fulfilling those obligations since that treaty is a cornerstone of its European security policy. The fact that Western states provided funding to help meet the commitments through an OSCE Voluntary Fund gave added impetus. 40 Russia faced fierce resistance from DMR authorities, who physically blocked the withdrawal up to the deadline, while Smirnov insisted on personally approving every train departing with military equipment. However, faced with a united Russian and Western position, the DMR had little choice but to capitulate. Abandoning their original demand for billions of dollars in compensation, it settled for a U.S.$100 million gas debt write-off by Russia, some non-offensive military equipment and some of the profit generated by industrial processing of ammunition disposed of in the region. While DMR authorities organised demonstrations, they did not further obstruct the equipment withdrawal, which was completed on schedule. 41 During the election campaign in early 2001, President Voronin stressed the need for close relations with Russia and the CIS and signalled willingness to make Russian a second state language. He took a rather ambiguous stance on a Russian military base, while insisting that the solution of the conflict was the national priority. During 2001 the Communist-dominated parliament passed laws broadening use of Russian in public affairs and guaranteeing Russian language education. 42 In November 2001, the Russian- Moldovan Treaty on Friendship and Cooperation was signed, recognising Moscow's role as comediator and guarantor in any political settlement and stipulating a regular security dialogue, cooperation within the CIS, and coordination of tax, financial, monetary, trade, customs and other policies. Voronin increasingly used populist rhetoric, denouncing NATO, the EU and international financial organisations. In October 2002, the parliament ratified the Russian-Moldovan agreement on military cooperation. 43 However, Moldovan-Transdniestrian relations soon took a turn for the worse. When the DMR leadership refused to make concessions in negotiations despite an increasingly conciliatory approach by Chisinau in the first half of 2001, Voronin broke off talks and stepped up economic and political pressure. In September new Moldovan customs stamps and seals conforming to WTO standards were issued and not shared with the DMR. This was a blatant attempt to force Transdniestrian enterprises to register and pay taxes in Chisinau, effectively bringing Transdniestrian exports under Moldovan control. Voronin also 38 ICG interview, Tiraspol, December ICG interview, Tiraspol, March Hill, "Making Istanbul a reality", op. cit., p Ibid., p Some provisions of these laws were later ruled unconstitutional by the Constitutional Court and excluded. 43 Infotag, 3 October 2002.

13 ICG Europe Report N 157, 17 June 2004 Page 8 called for concrete Russian support to resolve the conflict. The Putin administration refused to recognise the old custom stamps and seals held by the DMR, thus hampering exports to Russia from enterprises not registered in Moldova. In early 2002, Russia also refused to recognise Transdniestrian certificates of origin. 44 While useful, this was far from the decisive action for which Voronin had hoped. Russia was not prepared to lower the price for gas deliveries nor provide other substantial economic support for Moldova. Meanwhile, Transdniestria continued to receive subsidised Russian gas. Having met the deadline for removing its CFElimited arms and equipment, Russia hoped to negotiate a favourable deal with Voronin on its remaining troops and failed to meet the end of 2002 deadline for withdrawing them. A December 2002 OSCE Ministerial extended the deadline to the end of 2003 but relations with Chisinau began to sour. Voronin pulled back from concessions on the Russian language and scrapped plans to join the Russia-Belarus union. Most importantly, he insisted on a complete troop withdrawal. In issues on which Russia has neither a strategic nor domestic political interest (such as human rights in Transdniestria) the DMR leadership has been able to pursue its policy preferences largely unchecked. Russia is usually content to allow the OSCE co-mediator to lead on these matters, 45 and neither the OSCE, Ukraine, the EU, the U.S. nor Moldova proper has decisive influence. Thus, after General Lebed, who had tried to intervene in these matters, was recalled, Russian authorities did not prevent DMR leaders from harassing either the internal opposition or Moldovan schools using the Latin alphabet and Moldovan curriculum. C. RUSSIAN SUPPORT FOR TRANSDNIESTRIA One of the most important forms of Russian backing for the DMR has been the material support mobilised through the defence ministry. Russian material, logistical, administrative and training support helped establish the DMR armed forces 44 ICG interview, Moscow, 29 October ICG interview, Chisinau, 20 November during , and support from the 14 th Army and later OGRF has continued in various forms. Russian security officials have made no effort to regain weapons stolen by, or given to, the DMR during the conflict, instead merely writing them off the inventory. Moreover, many demobilised Russian officers and soldiers joined the DMR armed forces or stayed on as pensioners. Until late 2001, Russian officers trained DMR armed forces, such as the Transdniestrian tank battalion in Hlinoaia. 46 On several occasions, Russian troops have handed over technical items and other supplies. 47 During the withdrawal after 2000, DMR authorities secured much nonoffensive military equipment from the OGRF. The defence ministry's economic interests and the general Russian military-industrial interest in Transdniestrian arms production have tainted prospects for resolving the conflict. 48 Various Russian economic ministries and state committees have maintained close relations with the DMR. Although these have waned over time, they remain robust in parts of the military-industrial sector, where Transdniestrian factories produce arms or arms' accessories for Russian enterprises or the Russian State Committee for Arms Export. 49 Russian energy subsidies remain crucial to the Transdniestrian economy, delivered primarily through the energy giant Gazprom. Under the influence of its biggest share holder, the Russian state, Gazprom has allowed the DMR to amass more than U.S.$960 million in debts for natural gas deliveries (including penalties). This is more than three times Transdniestria's annual GDP. 50 Cheap natural gas, mainly from Gazprom, is sold at prices far below the nominal purchase price, thus allowing Transdniestrian manufacturers to produce goods much cheaper than their Moldovan competitors. 51 The DMR's energy debts may ultimately serve 46 ICG Interview, Chisinau, 4 September Gribincea, The Russian Policy on Military Bases, op. cit., pp ICG interview, Chisinau, 25 January ICG interview, Chisinau, 23 November In comparison, Moldova's debts for natural gas amount to about U.S.$400 million (including penalties). 51 DMR authorities also steal a substantial part of the natural gas from transit pipelines to the Balkans on their territory. Centre for Strategic Studies and Reforms (CISR), Research Paper on Transnistria, Chisinau/Tiraspol, November 2003, p. 8.

14 ICG Europe Report N 157, 17 June 2004 Page 9 Gazprom well, since the conglomerate wants to purchase the two largest energy plants in Transdniestria and fourteen other recently privatised enterprises. 52 A debt-for-shares swap may be on the cards that would mean greater Russian co-ownership of Moldova's energy system and its strategically important industry. 53 Since much DMR legislation, policy and administrative standards are modelled on Russia's, Moscow has also provided material support and expertise in these fields. The education ministry has given textbooks and teaching materials for all levels of the education system. Some of this has been approved by Moldova, whose Russian schools have also benefited. Additional support has been given directly to Transdniestria through agreements between the education ministries and cooperation with Russian universities and institutes. 54 Russia has also helped in other fields such as public health and cultural affairs. The culture ministry and its Transdniestrian counterpart are negotiating a memorandum of cooperation. 55 Various government agencies have also provided humanitarian aid. Although some Transdniestrian contact with Russian government agencies, as well as Russian humanitarian support, is acceptable to the Moldovan government, these same government agencies (including the Russian General Prosecutor) often write their DMR counterparts with all the formalities and titles normally accorded to recognised states. 56 This hardly signals to Moldova that Moscow is ready to resolve the conflict. Politically and materially the Smirnov government remains dependent on Russia and, as the negotiation process has demonstrated, only Moscow has any real sway over the DMR. While the DMR has its own agenda, it will almost always take the Russian policy as its first point of reference. III. UKRAINE'S ROLE Ukraine has resisted Russian attempts to reestablish its sphere of influence in the CIS. It has largely limited cooperation within the CIS to economics, while distancing itself from political, military and security agreements. It is keen to integrate into Western European and Euro-Atlantic structures over time. However, Ukraine's Western pretensions have been somewhat tempered by economic dependence on Russia and the need to maintain stable relations with Moscow. Foreign policy has sought to maintain a careful balance between cooperation with the U.S. and Russia, while stressing neutrality and non-alignment. 57 Ukraine has been a member of NATO's Partnership for Peace since 1994, and in June 1998 it set EU membership as its first priority. 58 In May 2002 full NATO membership was also declared a long term aim. Relations with Russia are strained over disagreements concerning CIS cooperation, economic issues (particularly Ukrainian debts for natural gas), the division and status of the old Soviet Black Sea Fleet, Crimean separatism, demarcation of borders, and the linguistic rights of Russian speakers. A. UKRAINE'S REGIONAL POSITION Under President Kravchuk between 1991 and 1994, Ukraine sought Western economic support and security guarantees, and there was decided reluctance to settle major disagreements with Russia. 59 However, due to slow progress on economic reforms, Western economic support remained limited. Between 1994 and 2000, President Kuchma attempted to mobilise support from both East and West, while pursuing a more 52 CISR,"Transnistrian Economy: Initiatives and Risks", Chisinau/Tiraspol, June 2003, p. 8, at 53 However, in late December 2003 the DMR sold the Cuchurgan power station (the biggest in Moldova) to a Belgian-Russian company, rather than accept the Gazprom offer of writing off debts in exchange for shares. TV PMR, 26 December ICG Interview, Tiraspol, 9 October Nika-Press, 28 January ICG interview, Tiraspol, 10 October Ernst Lüdemann, "Abschied von der 'Multivektoralität'. Die Außenpolitik der Ukraine in unruhigen Zeiten", Osteuropa, vol. 52 (2002), No. 8, pp Kurt R. Spillmann/ Andreas Wenger/ Derek Müller, "Introduction: In-between Russia and the West?", in Kurt R. Spillmann/Andreas Wenger/ Derek Müller (ed.), Between Russia and the West: Foreign and Security Policy of Independent Ukraine (Bern et. al., 1999), pp Arkady Toritsyn/Eric A. Miller: "From East to West, and Back Again: Economic Reform and Ukrainian Foreign Policy", European Security, Vol. 11 (2002), No. 1, pp. 104,

15 ICG Europe Report N 157, 17 June 2004 Page 10 moderate policy towards Russia. Economic cooperation with the CIS was strengthened, as was military cooperation with an agreement on the Black Sea Fleet and a Russian-Ukrainian Treaty on Friendship, Cooperation and Partnership. At the same time, however, Ukraine helped form the GUAM group within the CIS to counterbalance Russian dominance. As Western economic support has again waned after the reform process stalled in 2000, Ukraine has drifted closer to Russia. This rapprochement has been facilitated by the influx of Russian capital, a rescheduling of gas debts, improved military cooperation and Moscow's support for Kuchma during the political crisis. 60 While there was some improvement in relations with international financial organisations in 2001 and progress with the EU and NATO in 2002, Ukraine surprised many in September 2003 by joining Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus in founding the Common Economic Area. Moreover, President Kuchma may well be depending on Russian backing during the presidential elections due in late Despite these shifts between East and West, policy towards Moldova has remained relatively unchanged since Both countries demonstrated a desire for Western integration, resistance to renewed Russian hegemony, and willingness to cooperate economically within the CIS without joining its military and security arrangements. Both joined NATO's Partnership for Peace program, signed Partnership and Cooperation agreements with the EU and cooperated in GUAM. The signing of the bilateral Treaty of Good Neighbourhood, Friendship and Cooperation on 23 October 1992 was of great significance since radical nationalists from both countries maintained territorial claims dating back to the Stalin era. Both countries agreed to recognise one another's territorial integrity and respect the Helsinki Final Act and its subsequent documents. Today no significant political force in Ukraine supports territorial claims against Moldova or Transdniestria Ibid., pp. 104, Transdniestria first became part of a Moldovan state in Although it is considered historically Ukrainian land, supporters of the inclusion of Transdniestria in Ukraine are Nevertheless, as its larger, more powerful neighbour, Ukraine has strategic, economic and minority rights-related interests in Moldova. It is eager to restrict Romanian and Russian influence there. 62 Although relations between Ukraine and Romania have significantly improved since a friendship treaty was signed in June 1997, Ukraine opposes unification of Moldova with Romania, largely due to fears that this could eventually revive territorial claims and attempts to discriminate against its nationals. 63 Ukraine also seeks to limit Russian influence in Moldova, opposes any further Russification of Ukrainians in that country, and promotes Ukrainian culture and national identity among its nationals there. It hopes that an independent Moldova will continue to pursue European integration while closely cooperating with it. 64 B. THE APPROACH TO TRANSDNIESTRIA Plagued by its own territorial disputes in the Crimea, Transcarpathia and the Donetsk, Ukraine condemned Transdniestrian separatism from day one. The Ukrainians also cast a dim view on the Transdniestrian secessionist movement's conservative, pro-soviet leadership and enthusiasm for a continued Russian military presence. 65 From 1991 onward, Ukraine advocated complete withdrawal of Russian troops from Moldova and later facilitated the partial withdrawal by helping to transport arms, equipment and ammunition through its territory back to Russia. Certain Ukrainian officials also believe that the withdrawal of Russian troops from Moldova would establish a precedent making it easier to remove the Russian part of the Black Sea Fleet. 66 The Transdniestrian conflict was a national security issue for Ukraine between 1990 and Kiev was particularly concerned about its territorial integrity as Transdniestrian and Gagauz volunteers limited to a handful of extreme and marginalised Ukrainian nationalists such as the Ukrainian National Assembly Ukrainian National Self-Defence. 62 ICG interview, Kiev, 15 October This was the case in Romania between the world wars, as well as under the Popular Front government in Moldova during Ibid. 64 Ibid. 65 ICG interview, Kiev, 14 October ICG interview, Chisinau, 23 November 2003.

16 ICG Europe Report N 157, 17 June 2004 Page 11 and paramilitary, as well as Moldovan security services in pursuit of DMR leaders, violated Ukrainian borders. In early 1992, hundreds of Cossack fighters from Russia crossed Ukraine to Transdniestria. At the same time, Ukrainians in Transdniestria organised themselves into the Union of Ukrainians of Transdniestria, a DMR front organisation designed to lobby Kiev over its "onesided" approach to the crisis. 67 Ukraine was not only confronted with a war on its doorstep that could spread but also potential refugee movements. It quickly called for negotiations and an end to Russian interference and, in March 1992, supported a quadrilateral Moldovan-Russian-Ukrainian- Romanian negotiating forum. In April 1992, Ukraine established a 50-kilometre security zone along its border with Transdniestria to prevent Cossacks and others transiting to fight with the DMR. 68 Since June 1992, Ukraine has supported Transdniestrian autonomy within a unitary Moldovan state and accepted Transdniestrian negotiators within the Moldovan delegation. 69 After the intervention of the Russian 14 th Army and the Russian-Moldovan Moscow Agreement in July 1992, Ukraine and Romania were excluded from the negotiations but after talks intensified in early 1994 and the moderate pro-russian Leonid Kuchma was elected president, Ukraine was invited to return to the table. Since September 1995, it has served, with Russia and the OSCE, as co-mediators between Moldova and Transdniestria. With the signing of the May 1997 Moscow Memorandum, Ukraine and Russia became potential guarantors of an agreement. Ukraine has launched a number of initiatives, including a November 1998 proposal for a gradual but comprehensive settlement. It also hosted the March 2000 Kiev conference, during which international experts elaborated two federal models. 70 In November 1998, Ukrainian military observers joined Moldovan, Transdniestrian, Russian and OSCE observers stationed in the security zone. Mindful not to antagonise its partners East or West, Ukraine has, however, not been particularly active, preferring mostly to support OSCE ideas. 71 Since June 2002, it has backed a federal solution. However, like the OSCE, Ukraine lacks much influence on DMR leaders, who continue to resist any such settlement. Officials stress their desire for rapid resolution of the conflict, motivated by wish to protect Ukrainians and Ukrainian citizens in Transdniestria and avoid a new war -- the 1992 fighting sent about 100,000 refugees into the country. It would much like to see the DMR reintegrated into Moldova, which would help establish unified Moldovan tax and customs regulations, as well as unified border controls, which would in turn aid in securing a border across which some 60 per cent of all cigarettes sold in the country are smuggled. 72 Ukraine also understands that European integration in the region would be facilitated by a settlement. 73 Relations with Moldova have significantly deteriorated since late 2001, largely because Ukraine still accepts the outdated customs stamps and seals used in the DMR so trade can continue. After a visit to Ukraine by DMR leader Igor Smirnov, President Kuchma expressed concern over the humanitarian impact if the old stamps were rejected, and Ukraine has continued to allow Transdniestrian exports to enter and transit. Ukraine finally signed a protocol with Moldova regulating relevant customs procedures only in May 2003 after strong pressure from the EU and U.S., and realisation that its stance might undermine prospects for accession to the WTO. However, it refuses to establish joint customs posts with Moldova on its territory along the Transdniestrian portion of the border. Some observers believe Ukraine's position on the customs question signalled President Kuchma's displeasure to the newly elected Voronin about Moldova's more pro-russian stance. 74 Pressure from businessmen illegally benefiting from the DMR shadow economy doubtless also played a part. During 2003, Ukrainian negotiators several times proposed making Ukrainian a state language in Moldova within the framework of a political settlement. However, this was not followed up. 67 ICG interview, Kiev, 13 October Pal Kolsto/Andrei Edemsky/Natalya Kalashnikova: "The Dniester Conflict. Between Irredentism and Separatism", Europe-Asia Studies, Vol. 45 (1993), No. 6, p Ibid., p ICG interviews, Kiev, 14 October 2003, and Chisinau, 13 November ICG interviews, Kiev, 15 October 2003, and Chisinau, 2 October ICG interview, Kiev, 14 October ICG interviews, Kiev, 14, 15 and 17 October ICG Interviews in Kiev, 17 October 2003, and Chisinau, 12 November 2003.

17 ICG Europe Report N 157, 17 June 2004 Page 12 IV. A QUASI-INDEPENDENT DMR Under protection of the Russian-led peacekeepers, the DMR has developed a full range of quasi-state structures. It has a president, government, and state administration, although the powerless Supreme Soviet is no check on the executive. The court system has many of the problems as its Moldovan counterpart, but significantly worse: limited independence, general lack of professionalism, failure to implement decisions, and corruption. In a number of cases, it has been used to obstruct, harass, silence, prohibit and punish the political opposition. The Constitutional Court is a political organ dependent on the DMR leadership. According to its constitution, the DMR is a presidential republic. 75 The president is the chief executive and head of its armed forces. Igor Smirnov has served in this post since 1 December 1991, having been re-elected in 1996 and The cabinet includes thirteen ministries. In theory, the Supreme Soviet can repeal presidential decrees and overrule presidential vetoes of legislation, although this does not happen. Overly vocal deputies have often been silenced by direct pressure from Smirnov and his security minister. 77 A. A FIRM INTERNAL HAND The ministries of state security, internal affairs, and defence play a central role in the regime. While external security was guaranteed after the intervention of the 14 th Army in 1992, internal stabilisation has been more gradual. The ministry of state security, led by Minister Vadim Antyufeev (also known as Shevtsov), cracked down sharply on the initial challenges of both the political opposition and underworld groups. A major in the notorious Soviet special police in Riga, he was brought to Transdniestria in the autumn of 1991 with the help of the Soyuz group. 78 He is the main 75 See the DMR constitution at 76 To allow Smirnov's second re-election, the DMR constitution was amended in July ICG interview, Tiraspol, 9 October A conservative/reactionary group of Peoples' Deputies in the last USSR Supreme Soviet and Congress of Peoples' Deputies, Soyuz is closely linked to the military, other security forces and allied business interests. The group link between the DMR leadership and conservative Russian political forces and security services, and retains close ties to former members of the Soyuz group remaining in the State Duma, 79 The ministry has some 2,000 personnel and includes a special Delta battalion of approximately 150 troops, a Cossack reserve regiment of roughly 200, substantial reserves who can be mobilised from Russia, and perhaps 800 border guards. These forces possess a range of armed vehicles, mortars, and small arms. The ministry runs a broad range of activities and investigations against potential opposition leaders, members of political parties, NGOs, journalists, and educators. Individuals demanding to be allowed to write Moldovan (Romanian) in Latin script and teach the Moldovan curriculum in schools have also been singled out for harassment. 80 The ministry likewise has directed propaganda campaigns against the Moldovan government, Transdniestrian opposition figures, and Western organisations. It directly sponsors a number of media outlets. The interior ministry, although formally charged only with law enforcement, has often supports security ministry campaigns against potential internal opposition. Police are frequently involved directly in harassment of opposition politicians, journalists, NGOs, and Moldovan schools. The ministry has about 10,000 personnel, including a special Dnestr battalion of some 500 troops. 81 The defence ministry is responsible for external security. Its forces consist primarily of four remained active even after the August 1991 coup attempt, in which several leading members were participants. 79 The link between Antyufeev and Victor Alksnis, one of the Soyuz leaders, dates back to the late 1980s when both served in the Baltic republics -- the former as police major in the OMON troops of the Soviet Ministry of Interior, the latter as a colonel in the Baltic military district of the Soviet Army -- and were active in reactionary, pro-soviet circles among the officer corps of Army, KGB, and OMON. 80 In line with Soviet tradition, DMR legislation upholds that Moldovan is a language distinct from Romanian and demands that it be written using the Cyrillic script. Until recently, six Moldovan schools in Transdniestria had been allowed to retain the Latin script, introduced in the Republic of Moldova in 1989, and the curriculum of the Republic of Moldova. These schools and a few other Moldovan schools that clandestinely teach in Latin script are the target of permanent harassment by DMR authorities. 81 All figures from ICG interview, Tiraspol, 1 October 2003 and Chisinau, 2 October 2003.

18 ICG Europe Report N 157, 17 June 2004 Page 13 motorised rifle brigades, a tank battalion, an artillery regiment, and an anti-aircraft artillery regiment. The standing army has some 4,500 troops, plus an estimated 15,000 who can be mobilised. 82 It has eighteen tanks, courtesy of the 14 th Army and OGRF. 83 The People's Militia, a regularly trained and well armed force of 2,000, about 70 per cent of whom have some combat experience, is also under the defence ministry. The can also rely on the ten regiments of the Cossack Black Sea Army, which can be mobilised in times of conflict. B. CONSTRUCTING IDENTITY Since the mid-1990s, the DMR leadership has attempted to build a Transdniestrian identity. The policy has been designed both to legitimise the claim of independence and to encourage a multiethnic population to embrace a common identity as the basis for DMR statehood. 84 Five core elements have been emphasised: self-sufficiency, statehood, multi-ethnicity, an Eastern orthodox Slavic-Russian orientation, and Moldovanism (implying an Eastern orientation in contrast to the alleged pro-romanian orientation of Moldova itself). The core of this constructed identity is Russo-centric, even though multi-ethnicity and Moldovan-Ukrainian-Russian tri-lingualism have also been encouraged. 85 The Russian language has been heavily promoted as linking "Transdniestrians of different ethnic background". 86 Selective historical presentations in schools and the media, which omit many important episodes, create something of a cult of personality around Smirnov and place strong emphasis on the conflict. 87 The DMR has also aimed to preserve the social safety net inherited from the Soviet period as a means of ensuring broad public support. Relatively extensive social infrastructure is still in place and a wide range of benefits and subsidies are provided. Prices for communal services and energy are kept artificially low. 88 This system has had to be reduced somewhat but its continued existence is an important propaganda tool that allows the DMR to claim its population is better off than the rest of Moldova. In recent years, the average pension has been about twice that in Moldova proper. 89 The identity campaign and social policy have clearly had an impact. In a 1998 poll carried out jointly by Moldovan, Transdniestrian, Russian, and U.S. researchers, 83 per cent of respondents supported DMR statehood, and 44 per cent agreed there is a unique, unified Transdniestrian community. 90 A poll in 2000 showed that most Transdniestrian respondents felt they live better than Moldovans. Many Transdniestrian respondents have shown higher trust in their state institutions than their Moldovan counterparts, with 45.2 per cent trusting President Smirnov, 38.7 per cent the government, and 37.1 per cent the Supreme Soviet. Only the Orthodox Church (48.6 per cent) and the armed forces (64.7 per cent) ranked higher. 91 Although such polls must be treated cautiously, this level of support should not be discounted. 82 Gribincea, The Russian Policy on Military Bases, op. cit., p In comparison, the Moldovan army, which has 7,000 troops, has a smaller mobilisation capability, but possesses more artillery and anti-tank capabilities. Both armies are able to withstand an attack of the other. Information received by an international military observer, Chisinau, 20 November Figures are disputed, but according to rough estimates on the basis of the 1989 census, 34 per cent of the population living under DMR control is Moldovan, 29 per cent Ukrainian, 29 per cent Russian, and 8 per cent of other nationality. 85 Stefan Troebst, "The 'Transnistrian Moldovan Republic", From Conflict-Driven State-Building to State- Driven Nation-Building ", European Yearbook on Minority Issues 2003 (forthcoming), manuscript. 86 ICG interview, Tiraspol, 1 October Stefan Troebst, "Staatlichkeitskult im Pseudo-Staat. Identitätsmanagement in Transnistrien", Osteuropa, Vol. 53 (2003), No. 7, p World Bank,Republic of Moldova. Economic Review of the Transnistria Region", Report no MD, Chisinau, June 1998, pp. 12, See CISR,Research Paper on Transnistria", op. cit., Annex A. 90 Nikolaj V. Babilunga, "Territorjal'naya identichnost' kak faktor politicheskoj stabil'nosti Pridnestrov'ya", in Michail N. Guboglo (ed.), Ėtnicheskaya mobilizaciya i mezhėtnicheskaya integraciya (Moscow, 1999), p Vladimir Kolossov, "A Small State vs. a Self-Proclaimed Republic. Nation-Building, Territorial Identities and Prospects of Conflict Resolution (The Case of Moldova- Transdniestria)", in Stefano Bianchini (ed.), From the Adriatic to the Caucasus. The Dynamics of (De)Stabilization (Ravenna, 2001), pp

19 ICG Europe Report N 157, 17 June 2004 Page 14 C. THE ECONOMICS OF DE FACTO INDEPENDENCE Although the DMR has preserved a substantial part of Transdniestrian industrial potential while actively engaging in foreign trade, it faces mounting economic challenges. 92 While Moldova started market economy reforms as early as , the DMR continued to rely on heavy state regulation until the late 1990s before market processes began to intensify. 93 Over the years Transdniestria it has lost many of the economic advantages it enjoyed over the rest of Moldova, including higher economic development and productivity in the agricultural sector, higher wages, and higher overall living standards. 94 On the whole, industrial and particularly agricultural production have significantly fallen since Nevertheless, in recent years GDP per capita in the DMR has not been substantially lower than in Moldova, where output has also decreased. To counteract this downward trend, DMR authorities have relied heavily on twelve to fifteen export-oriented enterprises, mostly in ferrous metallurgy and light industry, that account for about 70 per cent of total GDP. 95 The leader is the MMZ in Ribnitsa, which produced 46.7 per cent of 92 CISR,Research Paper on Transistria", op. cit., p. 3. In a recent analysis of the Transdniestrian economy, the Centre for Strategic Studies and Reforms in Chisinau differentiated five stages of development: first, the search for the realisation of a "free economic zone" model; second, the 1992 tensions over Moldovan-Transdniestrian attempts to block each other's economy and infrastructure; third, the search for economic survival under conditions of disrupted economic ties with the right bank, during which the directors of Transdniestrian state enterprises revived economic links to Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and other former Soviet republics; fourth, the five successful years between 1996 and September 2001 with the development of regional entrepreneurship and the legalisation of foreign trade by accepting Moldovan custom stamps and seals; fifth, the post- September 2001 deterioration after Transdniestrian foreign trade decreased due to the introduction of new Moldovan customs stamps and seals and certificates of origin, which were not shared with Transdniestria, and the non-recognition of old customs stamps and seals and certificates of origin by Russia and, since May 2003, Ukraine. 93 Ibid, pp World Bank,"Republic of Moldova. Economic Review of the Transnistria Region", op. cit., pp. 3, 17, 28 ff. 95 CISR,"Evolution of the Transnistrian Economy: Critical Appraisal Research Paper on Transnistria", Chisinau, 2002, p. 7. the region's industrial output in 2000, 40 to 56 per cent of its exports between 2000 and 2002 and two thirds of its tax revenues. 96 The largest Russian investor in Transdniestria is the energy company ITERA, which has put about U.S.$50 million into MMZ. In April 2003, the Russian Customs Committee opened a special border crossing point for MMZ scrap metal, facilitating reduction of production costs. 97 A number of Russian-Transdniestrian joint ventures have been founded, and Russian banks have given substantial credits to Russian investors. With growing Russian economic activity and investment, the interest of Russian companies and banks in legal guarantees might increase. The recent process of privatising Transdniestrian enterprises, in which Russian companies and banks are the most interested, could strengthen this trend. If Russian investors were led by long-term economic considerations, an agreement on the legal status of Transdniestria within Moldova would be in their interest. However, as many Russian businessmen profit from the DMR's illegal trade and re-export economy as push to strengthen rule of law and transparency. The DMR has substantially diversified markets for its exports, mainly non-precious metal (steel) and metal products, textiles, mineral products, machines, equipment, accessories and finished food stuffs. Whereas CIS markets accounted for 76.2 per cent of exports in 1996, their share fell to 46.7 per cent in Among non-cis countries, the U.S. has been the most important during the period, primarily taking steel from the MMZ until anti-dumping penalties were enforced. Italy, Egypt, Romania, Greece and Germany are other important non-cis markets. Overall, however, Russia remains the most important trading partner, taking exports and imports together, with Ukraine and Moldova next. 98 Over the last decade, close ties to Russia, including through the defence complex, kept the DMR economy alive. 99 Ukraine, as Transdniestria's second largest trading partner, also sees most of its exports in transit. The 96 CISR,"Recent Economic Developments in Transnistria", Chisinau, 2003, p CISR, Research Paper on Transnistria, op. cit., p Ibid., Annex B. 99 CISR, Evolution of the Transnistrian Economy, op. cit., pp. 7-8.

20 ICG Europe Report N 157, 17 June 2004 Page 15 Ukrainian transport infrastructure, especially the nearby port of Odessa, are vital for the survival of Transdniestria's economy. The export of MMZ steel is particularly dependent on access to the Odessa port. Overall, the economy is unstable. A large foreign debt has been accumulated, mostly to Gazprom, but also in Russian credits accrued between 1992 and These are a heavy burden. In 2002 foreign debt totalled per cent of GDP. 100 Since introduction of the new Moldovan customs stamps, seals, and certificates, Transdniestrian industrial output and exports have decreased. Although GDP dropped only 2.7 per cent in 2002, the 2003 budget was down by about 40 per cent. Russia's refusal to recognise the old customs stamps and certificates of origin held by DMR authorities has hit the economy especially hard. Expectations for 2004, however, include some recovery in industrial production and an increase in the regional budget. 101 On balance, the DMR economy has not fared much worse than Moldova's over the last thirteen years but it has been heavily propped up by debts that will seriously limit future choices. In addition, many economic reforms have been delayed and the overall prospects for Moldova's economy have been frustrated by the lingering conflict. 1. The shadow economy The five years between February 1996 and September 2001 have been the most successful for the Transdniestrian economy. In February 1996, Moldova and Transdniestria signed a protocol stipulating liquidation of DMR customs posts on the internal border, establishment of joint customs posts at the Ukrainian border, the handing over of Moldovan customs stamps and seals to DMR authorities and standardisation of customs regulations. While Moldova did share its customs stamps and seals, the DMR did not keep its side of the bargain. 102 As a consequence, the protocol did not produce a common customs space, but merely enabled Transdniestrian enterprises to export legally without paying taxes to Moldova. As Moldova also agreed not to collect taxes and duties on goods with a Transdniestrian destination imported through other Moldovan borders, an extremely profitable re-export business developed. Since DMR authorities apply lower or even no taxes and custom duties on some goods, and producers in the region are exempt from taxes and duties for import of raw materials, huge quantities of goods (far exceeding the demand of the local market) are imported to Transdniestria and re-exported over the uncontrolled internal border to Moldova. They are consequently much cheaper than competing Moldovan goods or goods imported directly to Moldova. 103 This web of illegal economy activity stretches across DMR, Russian, Ukrainian, Moldovan and other business circles. There is also considerable direct smuggling through Transdniestria, including, reportedly, of oil products (especially fuel), alcohol, food products, and tobacco. 104 While the DMR receives little official revenue from re-exports, huge profits find their way into the pockets of individuals as well as their Russian, Ukrainian, Moldovan and other business partners. Arms production also appears profitable. Although no exact data are available, licensed arms and accessories for companies belonging to the Russian military-industrial complex seem to be only a part of the region's total production. Five or six Transdniestrian factories are said to be manufacturing various types of pistols, automatic weapons, mortars and missile launchers. Although some of these surely go to DMR forces, most are exported -- allegedly often without serial numbers. Although the Moldovan press has repeatedly reported on alleged Transdniestrian arms exports to Abkhazia and Chechnya, these remain unsubstantiated. 105 The multiple, lucrative and often illegal enterprises in the DMR have created a powerful network of individuals and companies with a vested interest in maintaining the status quo. The DMR leadership continues to guard its stake jealously. The income 100 CISR, Research Paper on Transnistria, op. cit., Annex C. 101 ICG interview, Tiraspol, 10 October Text of the protocol in G.N. Perepelitsa, Konflikt v Pridnestrov'e. Prichiny, Problemy i Prognoz Razvitiya (Kiev, 2001), pp Ibid., p Ibid., pp See, for example, Basa-Press, 4 December 2002.

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