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Preparedness Procrastination

One of my hobbies is amateur radio. I’m a “ham.” This week in my area of the world, amateur radio enthusiasts and Canadian citizens in general are marking Preparedness Week. Given how often I hear people talk about preparedness while doing not too much of anything, I think it might be better to co-celebrate Preparedness Week with National Procrastination Week. What might account for preparedness procrastination?

As far as I know, every level of government in North America advocates that citizens should be prepared to be self-sufficient for at least 72 hours in the case of an emergency. Emergencies vary by area including extreme weather events, unexpected power outages, earthquakes, fires, even civil unrest. In fact, one of the first steps in preparedness is to understand what emergencies might occur in your area.

There are numerous websites ranging from local municipalities to federal (http://www.ready.gov, http://www.getprepared.gc.ca/ ) that explain how to get informed, make a plan and build a preparedness kit suited to your own circumstances. These plans and kits range from what you might need at home to “shelter in place” to “everyday carry” (EDC) kits, go-bags and generally how to be safe if the “dung hits the fan” (as they say).

In addition to official government publications on preparedness, there are many other resources created and distributed by the “prepper” community. Preppers are a diverse bunch. Those who might go by this label range from everyday sorts of folks who do have a 72-hour plan, to a distinct subculture of more radical types who are preparing for an Armageddon-type event of which I find hard to imagine (or would hope not to witness). Preppers, whatever their stripe, seem to do just that, prep. What about the rest of us?

Actually, I’m a self-confessed prepper who sits somewhere along the continuum I’ve sketched above. I’m prepared to shelter in place or “bug out” as need be while staying warm, dry, hydrated, fed and secure. It requires work and the establishment of key habits such as, “store what eat and eat what your store.” That is, store extra food systematically, and rotate those stores by eating them as part of a regular practice. It can also mean storing fuel (stabilized) and using it regularly while replacing it; keeping generators on hand and running them regularly; thinking about safe water sources in the event that what is coming out of your tap (if anything) isn’t safe to drink . . . it’s a long list.

The work involved is part of the issue of course. So is the uncertainty associated with any potential emergency. Risk managers assess what might happen, the probability of it happening and the potential impact if it were to happen. If you rate each of these dimensions on a scale from 0-5 (with 0 meaning “not at all” or “no impact” and 5 meaning “very likely” or “severe impact”), you can see how you might get a pretty good indication of what to prepare for. Again, of course, this is a lot of work in and of itself. Present self would rather have fun now, or at least not be bothered with what may or may not happen in the future. Future self, as you’ve read in this blog, is treated more like a stranger in any case. It’s just how we seem to think.

Yes, the same discrepancy between present and future self that accounts for our more mundane procrastination on any run-of-the-mill aversive task is an issue to consider when it comes to preparedness procrastination. However, uncertainty is another issue that may account for preparedness procrastination.

It’s impossible to predict the future with 100% certainty. Ask any meteorologist what a 7-day forecast really means (they’re guessing after more than about 48 hours). So, uncertainty about future events is real.

Uncertainty is a correlate of procrastination. That’s what my research has shown. When we’re uncertain, we’re more likely to procrastinate.

There are other factors that may affect preparedness procrastination that behavioral economists study in terms of choices made and risk taking. One such factor is risk aversion. I’ll save you looking up risk aversion on Wikipedia. Here’s what the entry there says, “Risk aversion is the reluctance of a person to accept a bargain with an uncertain payoff rather than another bargain with a more certain, but possibly lower, expected payoff.”

The uncertain payoff in the case of preparedness is whether the time and money spent will pay any dividend at all. If I make the effort to maintain extra water and food, if I spend money on a generator and first-aid kit, if I even spend the time to make a plan, I know that present self will give up resources now (time, effort, money), but will future self benefit? Perhaps not. Uncertainty. Risk aversion. Procrastination.

Really, it’s a wonder that any of us prepare, isn’t it? It takes conscious effort, time and resources to prepare for things that may never happen. In any case, emergencies are the kind of stuff or the kind of thing we see on the news happening somewhere else to someone else, aren't they? It won’t happen to me. Ah . . . this is another problem with human thinking that feeds preparedness procrastination. We tend to think it won’t happen to us.

I said at the outset, I’m a prepper of sorts. Why am I ?(I wonder this at times myself.) Perhaps I simply internalized my boy-scout training too deeply. Perhaps I just learned something important back then. In any case, I’m prepared . . . well, at least I try to stay informed, I make plans and I have “a kit.” I explain this to myself (and others who question my diligence/compulsiveness in this part of my life) as being responsible. I have a commitment to self and family that includes being prepared to take care of myself (and others who might need it) if the usual stuff isn’t there due to an emergency, disaster, whatever.

I know from my research on procrastination that if there isn’t already a habit for action, then action has to begin with commitment. You have to have a commitment, then an intention, and a commitment to that intention in order to act. There are strategies you can use to make it more probable you will act, but at its heart, volitional action such as preparedness requires commitment.

If you’re celebrating more of procrastination week than preparedness week, maybe this year it’s a time to re-examine your commitment to yourself, to family and to community. And, that’s enough of my preachy blog post for this week! I hope it contributed to “being informed.” It is part of preparation, you know :-)

I don't have any research to back this up; but, I suspect that highly stressed individuals and/or those who struggle with poverty become more risk averse.

My intuition says that that may be the evolutionary foundation for why we treat our future self as a different person; simple lack of resources to prepare for every contingency. If we devote too much time and energy to "maybe" it distracts us from the present and if we have a lot of issues in the present that becomes really problematic.

"I know from my research on procrastination that if there isn’t already a habit for action, then action has to begin with commitment. You have to have a commitment, then an intention, and a commitment to that intention in order to act. There are strategies you can use to make it more probable you will act, but at its heart, volitional action such as preparedness requires commitment."

And volitional actions and commitments require a _conviction_ that the action in question is worth doing.

Fundamentally, this means that one has to believe, without a doubt, that life is worth living.

This is a topic that so many scientists like to gloss over, taking it for granted, and stigmatizing as pathological everyone who has any questions on this matter.
"Wondering about the meaning of life? It must be that you are depressed or there is something wrong with you! Because normal, healthy people do not wonder about the meaning of life."

I think that people procrastinate because deep down, they believe or know that that which they are "supposed" to be doing isn't really worth doing. Modern society is heavily geared against any serious discussion of these issues. Apart from platitudes, it has nothing of substance to offer on the deep existential questions that people struggle with.

If a person is sure that life is worth living, everything else falls in place.
If that surety is not there, one of the external symptoms is procrastination on seemingly important tasks.

The idea that "it is easier to put things off" is one of the most bizzare things I have ever heard. It's something I would expect to hear from a callous, judgmental Protestant puritan hellbent on giving themselves and others guilt trips.

I really do not think that there is anyone who procrastinates, and who actually enjoys to engage in all those diversion activities, or who actually thinks "it is easier to put things off."

I think it takes an extremely superficial, judgmental perspective to think that about procrastination.

Surely, on psychological self-reports, many people will _say_ they "work better under pressure," or that "it is easier to put things off," or that they "desire instant gratification in the form of watching TV etc."

And I think this has a lot to do with their projected public self-image and with internalized cultural constructs about human behavior, but much less with what they really think, what they are really concerned with.

Someone who spends some quality time with a procrastinator, really gets to know the person's concerns, will see that there is a difference between a procrastinator's public image and their privacy.

How do psychologists who work mostly with self-reports from test subjects account for people's ego defense mechanisms and cognitive biases? Do psychologists think that when they collect people's self-reports, those are free from ego defense mechanisms and cognitive biases?

But I guess the aim of Western psychology isn't to help people overcome their ego defense mechanisms and cognitive biases, but instead to develop such ego defense mechanisms and cognitive biases that make people able to function in modern mainstream society. Even if this eventually comes at the cost of global socio-economic collapse ...

I agree that lack of a fully-formed sense of identity and a clear sense of purpose and direction are major components in procrastination.

But, when you say it takes an extremely superficial, judgmental perspective to think that people who procrastinate a lot are lazy I tend to think that that's an ego defense mechanism at work.

Who wants to admit that they have poor impulse control? It's easier to say that others are judgmental and not put in the time and energy necessary to change.

You may have been listening too much to those who are making excuses for their behavior and lost your objectivity. At the very least it seems that you're over-thinking things and missing the obvious.

It is always easier here and now to avoid work and leave it for future me. It's not easier in the long-term; but no one is thinking that. It's easier now.

Which is easier and more enjoyable now? The research paper I have to write or playing Diablo for a while? Which would I rather do? Of course, I would rather play Diablo than writing my paper. Who wouldn't rather play than work?

Everyone's brain is lazy. Saying that the brain is lazy is not judgmental, it's a fact of life. It's an evolutionary necessity.

Focused physical or mental activity can be demanding. It takes a lot of calories and the brain is wired to avoid that since we evolved regularly having to deal with scarcity. It just means that here and now, in this moment, I don't feel like investing the time and energy that this task requires. It's easier now to let future me have to deal with this.

There are times that this deflecting action to the future is beneficial. It's entirely possible that I'm exhausted from other demanding tasks and were I to tackle this particular challenge (or any challenge) it would be a sloppy, half-assed effort. Blowing off steam playing video games may be just the thing to give me time to recover.

But, it's also possible that I just don't want to do my work because it's less enjoyable than playing my game. If I make the easy, lazy choice here than the ego defense mechanisms will automatically kick in to help justify that behavior. This means getting upset at anyone who calls this behavior lazy even though it is the textbook definition of laziness.

It's much easier to complain about societies flawed value system than to make yourself do something you don't want to do and this is exactly what those ego defense mechanisms exist for.

Willpower is hard.

Blame is easy.

Let's be honest, many those who procrastinate the most are in their teens and early 20's (before the will centers of the brain fully mature.) Many of them just don't have the maturity to override the brains natural laziness. It's not their fault that their brain isn't fully developed and criticizing them for this is just about as useful as criticizing someone for being short; but that doesn't change the fact that it is at least partly laziness.

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You may understand "works well under-pressure" better if we change it to "enjoys the rush of adrenaline that comes from working under pressure." There is a thrill that comes with trying to beat the clock. It's fun to race. It may not be the wisest strategy; but sometimes that rush compensates a bit for the reality that I don't want to do a particular task.

*

Now, one place we agree is that doing a task that we don't want to do is more taxing than doing a task that we enjoy. There is more energy expended by the brain on willpower simply to get going. This is also going to feed into procrastination. In my experience though once you're 5-10 minutes into the task this fades. Getting started is the part that exhausts the will; but, that's the entire purpose of willpower, to overcome our baser impulses when they will get us in trouble.

I think you'll agree that an awful big chunk of depression for a lot of people is sheer exhaustion from living a life that they don't find meaningful or enjoyable and that this is ultimately the biggest factor in most procrastination. I don't really buy the idea that depression is a disease (at least for most people, there are a fair number of biological/hormonal problems where depression is a symptom); but it is a sign that there are serious issues that need to be addressed. If someone finds life so stressful and exhausting that the thought of death seems appealing then something has to change; and yes, sometimes that means rejecting the superficial values of society.

The reality though is that a lot of the time the best thing to change is how that person approaches life.

Sometimes the best way to deal with feelings of depression is to abandon them (to stop thinking about them) and throw yourself into work that you personally find meaningful and emotionally rewarding. Often pain is subjectively worse when you sit there and dwell on it and getting your mind off by finding some project or task to work on is the best thing you can do.

Is pondering the existential questions really the best use of time and energy? Sometimes perhaps; but if asking those questions means that I'm feeling exhausted and depressed and less able to make sure my kid has enough food to eat then I'm inclined to say that they're overrated.

One of the hardest questions to ask is "Do I really benefit from asking all of these questions? Is my life really better because I'm deeply philosophical? Am I happier because of it? Is the world really a better place because I'm pondering the meaning of life?"

Ultimately, I learned that these questions often distract us from taking real action that benefits people and keeps us locked in a self-perpetuating cycle of depression.

Not bad faith, it's simply accepting reality. Human beings have to deal with finite resources as part of life. We have limited time. We have limited energy.

I'm saying people get tired and that the more tired you get the harder it is to make yourself keep working. How is that bad faith?

How many times a day does each and every person alive have to make a judgment call that something is too hard or would be exhausting?

People are always, instinctively looking for the easiest way to get to their goals. Almost no one is deliberately going to take a harder, less efficient route.

Nature is built on finding the path of least resistance. To believe otherwise is pure egotism.

Those who have a stronger will are better able to override the instinctive desire to preserve energy and better able to create a desired outcome. People can choose to walk a path other than the path of least resistance; but that's not a small or an easy thing. I have a great deal of faith in the power of human ingenuity when it is coupled with a strong will; but, I also recognize that not everyone has the same strength of will, just as not everyone can run a marathon or do 1000 push-ups.

Surely you're aware of the fact that children with higher levels of executive function tend to perform better in school. Stronger wills lead to better performance.

Those with weaker wills lose are less able to meet their goals; but still want to avoid dealing with shame - thus ego defense mechanisms.

I don't think there's anything inherently shameful about having a weak will, just like there's nothing shameful about not being an Olympic level athlete; but, people don't like being called on their weaknesses.

The real tragedy is that those defense mechanisms interfere with learning and growth. There are exercises that can train the will to a certain extent if a person is willing to admit their weaknesses. Meditation can do great things for people; but, only if they are willing to admit that there is a problem.

I think they key factor in this is being overwhelmed by facing the fact that we live in a world where emergency situations occur - ie. the overwhelm that comes with facing the fact that we live in a dangerous world.

How many people do you know who really are at peace with the thought that a natural catastrophe or a terrorist attack and such could happen, and at any time at that?

Many people seem to find these things so unsettling that they prefer not to think about them at all, ever.

So it's no wonder they don't materially prepare for these things, for such preparation would also make them think about them.

Without proper mental/attitudinal preparation for crisis situations, how could one hope to materially prepare for them?

It may even be that those who are better at dismissing those thoughts are happier. I imagine that worriers are much more likely to prepare; but, they are also more prone to chronic depression.

The idea that safety is relative and often a kind of an illusion is not particularly comforting.

Let's not forget about the social attitudes that reinforce this. If someone puts an awful lot of time and energy into disaster preparedness there are plenty of people who will think that they are paranoid.

I imagine that worriers are much more likely to prepare; but, they are also more prone to chronic depression.

Sure, and I think this worry and depression have to do with not having ways to prepare that would actually be effective against crises.

Materially being prepared for a crisis does not necessarily, nor automatically put one's mind to rest - when deep down, one knows that tsunamis, earthquakes, terrorists, plagues, stock market collapses etc. are not the real problems in life.