Florida’s economy has fallen and won’t get up soon, economists say

The good news for Florida’s economy: The freefall is over. The bad news: Don’t expect a quick rebound.

Wells Fargo economist Mark Vitner compares the Florida economy to a pedestrian who falls into an open manhole. The recession is over when the hapless victim hits bottom. But it’ll take a while to climb out of the hole, a long climb Florida’s economy is just now starting, Vitner said this week during a roundtable in West Palm Beach hosted by the Economic Development Research Institute.

“We still have the plague of the housing bust, stagnant population growth and the labor market to remind us of this recession,” Snaith says. “The recession may have passed over, but for now what we have in its place is an unleavened recovery.”

Snaith predicts Florida’s unemployment rate will peak later this year at about 12.2 percent. Unemployment will stay above 10 percent through the first quarter of 2012, he says.