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By Graham Allison, Director, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs; Douglas Dillon Professor of Government, Harvard Kennedy School

The current global nuclear order is extremely fragile, and the three most urgent challenges to it are North Korea, Iran, and Pakistan. If North Korea and Iran become established nuclear weapons states over the next several years, the nonproliferation regime will have been hollowed out. If Pakistan were to lose control of even one nuclear weapon that was ultimately used by terrorists, that would change the world. It would transform life in cities, shrink what are now regarded as essential civil liberties, and alter conceptions of a viable nuclear order.

By Graham Allison, Director, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs; Douglas Dillon Professor of Government, Harvard Kennedy School

In this IAEA Bulletin Viewpoint, "Advancing Against Nuclear Terrorism," Graham Allison discusses the significant steps taken by Presidents Bush and Putin at the St. Petersburg G-8 summit in July 2006 to address the threat of nuclear terrorism.

By Graham Allison, Director, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs; Douglas Dillon Professor of Government, Harvard Kennedy School

PRESIDENT BUSH has identified the nexus of terrorism and nuclear weapons as "the single largest threat to American national security." Indeed, he has said that the United States is currently engaged in World War III and put a bust of Winston Churchill in his office. The question he should ask himself is: What would Churchill do facing a grave threat to his society and way of life? How closely do the president's actions mirror his model? An American Churchill confronting a threat of such monumental proportions would make defeating this challenge the organizing principle of U.S. foreign policy.

By Graham Allison, Director, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs; Douglas Dillon Professor of Government, Harvard Kennedy School

In the first nationally televised debate between President George Bush and Senator John Kerry in September 2004, the moderator asked each candidate “What is the single most serious threat to American national security?” In rare agreement, Kerry and Bush both answered “nuclear terrorism.” As the president said: “I agree with my opponent that the biggest threat facing the country is weapons of mass destruction in the hands of a terrorist network.”

Journal Article, Russia in Global Affairs, http://www.globalaffairs.ru/articles/0/3069.html. Originally published in Russian language only.

By Graham Allison, Director, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs; Douglas Dillon Professor of Government, Harvard Kennedy School

A careful reader of the discussion in the Russian and American national security community could conclude that Americans are more concerned about the threat of a nuclear terrorist attack than are Russians. Specifically, American experts have described more vividly potential nuclear terrorist attacks on U.S. soil than have Russians, at least in the writings and conversations that are publicly accessible. Why this is the case is a puzzle. No one doubts that in Chechen fighters Russia faces serious, capable, determined adversaries. Moreover, if Chechnya succeeded in capturing, stealing, or buying a nuclear weapon (or material from which they could make a nuclear weapon), their first target would surely be Moscow, not New York or Washington DC.

By Graham Allison, Director, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs; Douglas Dillon Professor of Government, Harvard Kennedy School

Recently, the Senate voted in support of the Bush administration's request for funds to explore new nuclear 'bunker-buster' technology. In his major national security address in June, John Kerry specifically criticized this drive to expand our nuclear arsenal. This is but one of many significant differences between the two candidates on what Kerry called 'the greatest threat we face in the world today -- a terrorist armed with nuclear weapons.'

By Graham Allison, Director, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs; Douglas Dillon Professor of Government, Harvard Kennedy School

President Bush has called nuclear terror the defining threat the United States now faces. He's right, but he has yet to follow up his words with actions. This is especially frustrating since nuclear terror is preventable. Washington needs a strategy based on the "Three No's": no loose nukes, no nascent nukes, and no new nuclear states.

If the Cold War is over and our nuclear nemesis has "retargeted" its nuclear weapons, why does a nuclear threat still hang over us?
The answer is that the demise of the Soviet Union left behind an arsenal of thirty thousand nuclear warheads and seventy thousand nuclear weapons-equivalents 3/4 lumps of highly-enriched uranium and plutonium. These items are now located in a society convulsed by a revolution whose central control systems cannot even collect taxes. Russian society has become increasingly free, increasingly chaotic, and increasingly criminalized.

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Nuclear Terrorism

Nuclear Terrorism: The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe

Graham Allison, founding dean of Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, a former top official at the Pentagon, and one of America’s leading scholars of nuclear strategy and national security, presents the evidence and argument that led him to two provocative conclusions: a nuclear terrorist attack on an American city is inevitable on our current course and speed, but preventable if we act now.

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We host a busy schedule of events throughout the fall, winter and spring. Past guests include: UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, former Vice President Al Gore, and former Soviet Union President Mikhail Gorbachev.