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Blizard and solar CME forecasting

This failed work is presented as a cautionary tale but nevertheless there might be good parts.

Earlier oldbrew published an article on a theory by Nelson on forecasting the armada of radio propagation conditions. There were not many comments, possibly from the lack of solid further material.

From this paper, we can see why the technique fell at the hurdle. Nevertheless looking at what people were thinking and doing is important.

The scheme has been investigated by a Dr Blizard, U of Denver, report for NASA October 1969.

When I notice some well known names, consulted with L DeVries, J Eddy, C Dalton I took the paper as a serious attempt at validating Nelson.

Long Rang Solar Flare Prediction[1]

Abstract

Statistical studies of solar cycles show a high correlation between solar perturbations and proton events. It is hypothesized that the motion of the sun and planets about the center of mass of the solar system could trigger solar disturbances in unstable zones in the solar subphotosphere at active longitudes. The results of this study indicate that many of the major recorded proton events occurred near to major planet conjunctions.

— Scan of paper [1]

History didn’t pan out. Whether this is reality or a mistake, you dig it out.

2. A vaguely connected compendium from October 1978, and already showing familiar diagrams
AGARD lecture series No 93, Recent Advances in Radio and Optical Propagation for Modern Communications, Navigation and Detection Systems, NATO. Marked unrestricted public release, 1993.
Local copy, file here, 271pages, 16MB PDF scan of hardcopy
Original “www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a054205.pdf”

As it stands, without more information there is nothing to be done. Configurations meaning nothing as such unless there is a fast acting communicator. I’m open on this being ionising or similar, moreover we know that strange fast events exist.

Thanks Tim for the link to Blizard and Woods work, I have been looking for their work for some time.

Amazing stuff, 186 pages of complete nonsense, no wonder planetary science is mostly considered pseudo-science, the Jose/Wood predictions for SC21/22 are so wrong. At the end of the day ALL of the pioneers got it wrong.

Page 147 stands out (Wood) ” At times when Uranus and Neptune are near conjunction, sunspot cycles peak at a time when when Jupiter is a few years ahead of the mean positions of Uranus and Neptune, and the Saturn effect is minor.”

Saturn effect minor??? This is the biggest mistake ever made in planetary science. If Wood had looked at where Saturn is when Jupiter/Uranus and Neptune are together he would have found the key to solar grand minimum.

I will include the Jose/Wood predictions in my “Pioneering Facts” article and also include the prediction in my presentation to a very large astronomical society in July.