Picnic time for oily bears

FXStreet (Łódź) - Independent Analyst Malcolm Graham-Wood stresses that oil supplies are ample currently with all market participants who can selling crude and he expects the trend to continue in 1H2015.

Key quotes

"All the reporting agencies are producing stuff at the moment, it's almost too much to assimilate but further to the IEA report they expect US oil supply to rise by 1.2m b/d this year and have trimmed global demand growth to 1m b/d, result misery."

"The EIA short term energy outlook is also out, they forecast Brent to be $107 in the second half of this year, falling to $105 in 2015."

"They also forecast a tighter differential of WTI to Brent than in previous years."

"They also have US crude production at 8.5m b/d in July which is the highest since April 1987 and forecast 9.3m b/d next year which would be the highest since 1972."

"To make matters worse for international exporters, the share of total U.S. petroleum and other liquids consumption met by net imports fell from 60% in 2005 to an average of 33% in 2013."

"The EIA expects the net import share to decline to 22% in 2015, which would be the lowest level since 1970."

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