Top universities awarding more top degrees

Evidence of degree inflation which suggests that the number of firsts and 2:1s awarded is increasing fastest at the elite Russell Group universities has been uncovered by a comprehensive new study.

The analysis reveals that top universities are awarding an ever higher number of good degrees, and in some subjects heading for 100% firsts and 2:1s within 15 years. It is likely to lead to accusations of dumbing down, which have up to now been targeted at the former polytechnics.

Historically, first-class degrees have been awarded to students who show an exceptional breadth of original work, but the study raises concerns that students could also be getting better results because the way degrees are taught has changed, with more modular coursework instead of assessment based on final exams.

The findings, contained in a book by Mantz Yorke, a visiting professor of education at Lancaster University who previously sat on government-backed inquiries into exam standards, come before an official report next week which is widely expected to argue that the current system of exam classifications is outdated and should be radically reformed.

Government figures have shown the proportion of first-class honours degrees awarded has risen to 11% from 7.3% a decade ago. "My evidence suggests that people who attack colleges and new universities for softening or dumbing down are perhaps a little premature," Prof Yorke said.

According to the book, Grading Student Achievement in Higher Education: Signals and Shortcomings, the numbers of 2:1s and firsts awarded at Russell Group universities increased by two percentage points a year between 1994 and 2002 in some engineering subjects - double the rate in other pre-1992 universities. In languages they went up by more than 1.5 percentage points each year, compared with less than one point in other universities.

The book suggests some of the increase at the top universities is a consequence of the trend towards better A-level grades with, as a result, more qualified candidates applying to the Russell Group.

But students could also be getting better results because the way degrees are taught has changed, with more coursework instead of assessment being based on final exams.

"At its narrowest, the situation could approach 'teaching to the test', which is likely to bias results upwards, though possibly without leading to the insightful performances that are supposed to characterize a 'first class' performance," the book says.

Prof Yorke said: "My evidence suggests the most sizeable changes are in the Russell Group. It could be exacerbation of the tall poppy syndrome - that the brighter people all grow taller together. But although there is a hint that the student entry has an effect, it is not very strong."

The book documents existing evidence that there is variation in assessment both between and within institutions. It says assessment criteria are often "fuzzy" and that "grade inflation is perceived by many to be a problem" - though the causes are complex, Prof Yorke argues. "The trends ... cannot be expected to continue indefinitely. As the percentage of good honours degrees approaches 100, there will be no room for further increases, and concerns expressed about 'grade inflation' are likely to exert some influence on institutional behaviour," it warns.

Wendy Piatt, director of the Russell Group, said: "All Russell Group universities maintain strict watch on standards, with rigorous checks in place using expert external examiners. As Yorke himself points out, rising grades do not necessarily indicate 'grade inflation'. Research shows - and Yorke's analysis backs this up - that there is a strong correlation between entry qualifications and degree results - the increase in the percentage of Russell Group students gaining firsts and 2:1s from 1994-2002 correlates with a rise in the entrants' qualifications and an increase in standards at the time the Russell Group was established.

"In addition, as Yorke's research shows, the concentration of highly qualified, highly motivated students in Russell Group universities and increasing competition for students due to the expansion of higher education ... could also be a factor.

"Yorke also recognises that he has not been able to analyse the results of post-92 institutions in anywhere near the same depth as those of Russell Group universities because of the much greater variation of results and the wider variety of types of entry qualifications. This in itself has led to a skewed focus on the Russell Group with its concentration of A-level entrants."