NEWS ANALYSIS / Forbes Didn't Show Desire to Lead / Only in race because Kemp wouldn't run

Kenneth J. Garcia, Sam Whiting, Chronicle Political Writers

Published 4:00 am, Thursday, March 14, 1996

Steve Forbes always had the message. Unfortunately for him, he was also the messenger.

The publishing baron, once seen as the most credible challenger to GOP front-runner Bob Dole, is now just the latest casualty in a

marathon race filled with sprinters. His flat-tax fire, which burned hot for months, ultimately flickered out along with his popularity. An aide said yesterday that citizen Forbes "planted a flag for economic growth," but the millionaire's main problem was that he never planted a seed.

Even those close to Forbes said yesterday that they were not surprised by his decision to drop out, especially considering that he never wanted to jump in. Despite the fact that he spent close to $25 million trying to convince voters that he coveted the Oval Office, Forbes never really wanted to be president -- at least not in 1996.

The magazine publisher had always hoped that supply-side guru Jack Kemp would head the Republican ticket. But because the former HUD secretary decided that he could not stomach raising $80,000 a day to run for president, the 48-year-old Forbes decided last fall that he had little choice but to be the spear carrier for the forces of change in economic policy.

"Forbes doesn't lust for office as most politicians do," veteran GOP consultant Sal Russo said earlier. "If he could help plan ideas and move the debate and not be elected president he would be just as content."

Yet, Forbes' flat-tax mantra, which would have placed a standard 17 percent tax on all wage earners, began to wear down voters who looked for leadership and kinship, not just issues and ideology. His robotic delivery, which had the cadence of a metronome, made him sound like just another cyberwonk. He was the anti-Buchanan, a man of even temperment, but without the burning desire to lay down on his sword for his beliefs.

"All I can do in a campaign is put out ideas and get a debate going," Forbes said yesterday. "It's up to Senator Dole. It's got to come from his heart."

But the nation's voters, of which half have repeatedly said they want someone other than Dole to run for the presidency, wanted Forbes' desire to come from his heart. Instead, it appeared in his ads, a media blitz that made voters bleary-eyed and irritated.

"He was an unfamiliar person to voters and he needed some courtship time," Russo said. "When you're new, you can sustain your popularity when people start attacking you. They go to the old shoe that they're comfortable with."

In New Hampshire, a typical voter saw a Forbes ad 34 times in a week, which is about twice as often as those for Coca-Cola and Budweiser combined.

The ads generated such media attention that Dole, the prohibitive front-runner, was forced to acknowledge the millionaire upstart.

"It's like a new restaurant," Dole told Time Magazine. "You try it out. But in a couple weeks, the gravy doesn't taste right. The rolls are hard."

Forbes, a political neophyte, had hoped to enter politics the old- fashioned way -- by buying his way into the millionaire's club known as the U.S. Senate. As early as two years ago, an aide suggested that New Jersey Senator Bill Bradley's seat was up for grabs and they mapped a strategy to run for the spot, and then take a shot at the presidency in 2004.

The game plan was written on an envelope and handed to Forbes on the family plane, ironically called "The Capitalist Tool."

"My father made sure we knew there was nothing wrong with salesmanship," Forbes told Fortune magazine. "At a very early age, we were expected to know, as my father would put it, where our bread was buttered."

But Forbes opulence did not translate into themes for the common man, and even some early primary victories were largely attributed to his free-spending ways.

Indeed, when asked if he had ever faced adversity, Forbes responded, of course, when he was forced out on his own and sent away to boarding school.

Forbes hinted yesterday that although his presidential run is ending, his fight for the nomination could lay the foundation for a future candidacy.

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"In the long term, if we want to make a true realignment and make long-term changes, you need to establish a principled foundation," he said. "That's why I've taken some hits this round. "But I know there's going to be plenty of other rounds."

Yet, until he establishes another reason for running and a better method of spreading it, those rounds will likely be on the golf course.

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