Every once in a while, a fight comes along with so many possibilities, it makes picking a winner hard to determine. It doesn’t mean fans and pundits don’t do it anyways. With chewed fingernails, they push the button for one side or the other and then hope the fight was worth the wonder.

There will be thousands on hand Saturday night at the Houston, Texas Toyota Center and most will have made their choice with less trepidation. They’ll be in the house to cheer on the hometown favorite on the biggest night of his career. One fight removed from his lone loss, “The Baby Bull” steps in for the first time with a bona fide modern great.

In March 2008, he found out it doesn’t take a great fighter to beat him. Yet, this weekend, he steps in with advantages in speed, youth, and natural bulk for the chance to declare himself the best Lightweight in the World.

Across the ring, his elder will look to follow up what might have been even with an even split of victory and defeat his finest year. After years of toil, his craft is fully appreciated and his Hall of Fame ticket is all but stamped. Still, the shadows of bigger names loom over him. On hostile turf, he gets his latest chance to work from beneath them.

Live at 10:00 PM EST/7:00 PST on HBO, Marquez will bring an advantage of some seven years of professional experience into the ring for his first defense of the World Lightweight title. His stoppage of Cuba’s Joel Casamayor last September, though seen by too few, was a gem between older fighters with enough pride to find youth inside them. Now, Marquez has to counter almost a full decade of youth with recent history boding well for him. Outcomes like Bernard Hopkins over Kelly Pavlik and Joe Calzaghe over Mikkel Kessler in recent vintage show that in an era where there were just enough fights to give seasoning without the maximum amount of wear, older fighters can endure in a way not often seen in previous generations.

He’ll need the savvy because he starts off with a critical deficit in the fight. Diaz is faster than Marquez, and it matters because he remains one of the game’s most relentless pressure fighters, rattling off multi-punch combinations with abandon. Marquez fell behind Casamayor early, and struggled with both Pacquiao and Norwood, because they could get off first. In Marquez’s favor, Diaz doesn’t have the lightning speed of Pacquiao and, against Campbell, Diaz showed vulnerability.

For all of his grunting fusillades, Diaz doesn’t appear to have one-punch power. His knockouts come through will-breaking attrition. Campbell showed that, with patience and deliberation, Diaz’s aggression can be turned against him with intelligent body work and even a willingness to stay inside. Campbell came over the rushes with right hands and then was able to force Diaz back with timed combinations. A warmed up Marquez has some of the best timing in Boxing and with a little space can land a bevy of different shots. His uppercuts, from either hand, are precision, and his right hand off the jab is surgeon like in its precision. Like Diaz, Marquez isn’t a brutal puncher but he’s shown more dangerous against a tough range of opponents.

Marquez though has never appeared as comfortable just fighting at close quarters as Campbell did. He likes distance and is most comfortable when in control of geography. If he can time Diaz coming in with sweeping lead hooks, as he did last year against Pacquiao, he’ll have success in stunting the incoming but Diaz is tricky to catch coming in. He blocks well with his gloves and when he gets hit, it’s not often clean. His rushes and close quarters comfort smother the offense of opponents. Marquez’s mastery of distance and head movement will make him a tough target so when Diaz can land, he’ll have to make it count.

In terms of the unmeasurables, things like guts and desire, both are proven in different ways. Marquez’s off the floor thrice rally in the 2004 first bout with Pacquiao, where he earned a draw, was gutsy stuff. To be here, still, at 35 after suffering years of missed opportunities speaks to how badly Marquez wants it. Diaz has never shrunk from the limelight. In his three biggest fights, against Sim, Freitas, and Julio Diaz, he responded with dominance. In his lone loss, he responded by refusing to quit, taking his lumps like a man. Now we find out how much he learned from defeat.

The Pick: The deck appears sort of stacked here. Diaz has the hometown and, regardless of recent fare, age matters. In a fight where neither man is likely to land a lightning bolt for a ten-count, Diaz’s ability to pressure and push the aging legs of Marquez will count for a lot. Of course, there is every chance Marquez just goes maestro and hands out a boxing lesson, but he’s still fairly unproven at Lightweight. The Casamayor win was solid, but the Cuban was only one fight removed from a career worst performance and noticeably faded late on 37 year old stems. Diaz turned pro at Jr. Welterweight and is comfortable at 135. It says here Diaz will endure some rough moments in the first eight rounds but down the stretch be too active and punishing en route to a narrow, maybe even controversial, decision.

Pre-Fight Report Card Winning Picks in 2009: 3-1

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