Bear that in mind over the next few months. In the late 1990s analysts threw out conventional valuation yardsticks in favour of fashionable new metrics, such as eyeballs per page. Their justification? The internet had, we were told, changed everything.

Conveniently, these new metrics allowed stockbrokers to drum up interest in companies which, according to all traditional valuation ratios, appeared absurdly expensive. As the new century began, however, it soon became clear that things were not that different after all - not everything had changed.

Fundamentals reasserted themselves - and rapidly - the technology bubble burst and, over the course of a few brief months, billions of pounds were wiped off the stock market.

Why does that matter now, eight years on from the bursting of the dotcom bubble? It matters because, as we face slowing growth and falling house prices, we're being told that things are different this time. We're told that demand for housing is such that it will support house prices despite the credit crunch.

Optimists predict that the flexible European labour market will self-correct, preventing a sharp rise in unemployment. But things aren't as different as they seem. The parallels between the bursting of the Lawson bubble in the early 90s and the situation in which we currently find ourselves are too obvious to ignore.

In the early 90s, rising interest rates resulted in a liquidity squeeze. From 1989 through to 1994, housebuilders slashed prices. The ripples spread throughout the housing market, negative equity reared its ugly head. SMEs struggled to find financing. And while the current liquidity squeeze dwarfs the tightening of the early 90s, the secondary impacts of the credit crunch are making themselves felt in a very familiar way.

Housebuilders are offering cashback deals to drum up trade - price cuts in everything but name. In those areas of Scottish cities where there's a glut of unsold housing stock aimed at the faltering buy-to-let market, prices will fall.

On the streets of Edinburgh, whose property market was once asserted to be recession proof, hundreds of 'for sale' signs have sprung up overnight. The fundamental laws of supply and demand always assert themselves, even in the New Town.

Of course, during the recession of the early 90s, UK unemployment rose sharply. The optimists insist that things are different this time, that the workers attracted to this country from Eastern Europe during the recent boom will return, making the employment market self-regulating.

Certainly, there is evidence that Polish workers are returning home, to an economy growing far more rapidly than Britain's. But while that may soften the impact on headline unemployment figures, the fact remains that employment rates are falling - that the wages of migrant workers, until recently spent on the British High Street, will prime the pumps of economic growth in Poland instead.

So things aren't all that different after all.

Things will get worse. Yet in some respects, the prospects for Scottish business heading into this slowdown are far better than they were in the early 90s. Things really are different.

Over the space of little more than a decade, Scottish businesses have become geared into a far wider range of global trends than they were in the last downturn. I can see that quite plainly here at Martin Currie.

Over the last few years, we've consciously pursued an international path - investing in international markets on behalf of a global client base. Some 75 per cent of our clients are now based overseas. From the point of view of managing business risk, that's vital. While the health of the domestic economy is still important, we are no longer dependent on the UK.

That's the first reason that I'm more optimistic than I might have been in the early 90s.

Another is the resilience of emerging markets.

Given lingering concerns about sub-prime and the credit squeeze, financial stocks may not be the most attractive places to invest your money, not yet. Equally, stocks dependent on consumer spending may struggle for some time. But thanks to the emergence of the BRIC economies, there are still a huge range of profitable investment opportunities.

For example, mining stocks march to a different beat than other parts of the market. The problems of US and European banks with subprime don't concern them. That was underlined earlier this year when China, renegotiating some key long-term iron ore contracts, agreed to a 65 per cent price increase. In effect, China's growth has insulated mining companies from the chaos in western financial systems.

The final reason I remain optimistic is that - just as this slowdown is following a familiar pattern - the market's recovery from the gloom will follow a predictable route too.

In the early stages of recovery, some fantastic investment opportunities will be created and it won't be any different this time.

'Optimists predict that the European labour market will self-correct, preventing a sharp rise in unemployment '

'We're told that demand for housing is such that it will support house prices despite the credit crunch'