I am a mechanical engineer and Six Sigma Black Belt by training, and have come to love the beautiful game in my adult life. I turned to my numerical training after becoming a Seattle Sounders FC and Arsenal supporter in 2009 in the hopes of accelerating my understanding of the new game I loved. I've been writing my own blog for over two years, and have written for such outlets as "The Tomkins Times", "The Transfer Price Index", and Howler Magazine. My goal is to advance the understanding of the English Premier League and Major League Soccer through numerical means.

MLS Supporters' Shield Race Tightens As Playoff Picture Solidifies

Last weekend’s results left much to be settled in the Supporters’ Shield race, but they did further solidify things in the conference playoff races. Seattle’s 5-1 loss to Colorado may have served notice that the Rapids may make things difficult for the rest of the West come playoff time, but it actually didn’t hurt the Sounders that much given New York and Real Salt Lake both tied at home. The main beneficiary of the Sounders’ thrashing on Saturday night was Sporting Kansas City, whose 1-0 win at Columbus actually moved them back into being the second most likely team to win the Shield at 19% (equivalent to the SportsClubStats.com model). Seattle’s two points from nine over the last three matches has lowered their likelihood of winning the shield from 60% to 45% per the MLS EI (the shorter run SportsClubStats.com sees it as only 35%), but they’re still 2.5 to 1 favorites in the MLS EI model.

Seattle’s favorable Shield likelihood is living off the one to two extra matches they have in hand on the rest of the contenders. This Wednesday night they give one of those two matches back when they host Vancouver. The Sounders head into that clash without Brad Evans and Eddie Johnson, who are both on national team duty, while also likely missing Clint Dempsey and Obafemi Martins. All of the missing personnel means the Sounders may struggle to score goals on Wednesday night. One look at the current MLS table provides a “one of these things is not like the other” moment when it comes to the Sounders’ goals for and against record. Until this weekend’s loss they had one of the stingiest defenses in the league, conceding only twenty-nine goals that allowed them to co-share the least goals allowed with Sporting Kansas City. However, their goals against record isn’t what really stands out when compared to the other Supporters’ Shield contenders – it is the lack of goals for and the subsequent goal difference that makes them outliers at the top of the table. Seattle is on pace to only score 45 goals this season, which would be the joint lowest goals for a Supporter’s Shield winner on a 34 match basis over the last decade of play.

So what impact has the goal scoring record had on Seattle’s point total this season? The Pythagorean expectation is used to answer this question. Short of developing an MLS-specific Pythagorean expectation model, the Sportscruncher blog has come up with a comprehensive model that can be applied to a variety of leagues (and coincidently has a relatively low error when it comes to MLS). One finds that Seattle is the league’s second biggest overachiever when it comes to points versus their goals for/against record when this model is applied to the table through last weekend’s games. Only San Jose is a bigger over performer. Readers might be tempted to point out that Seattle’s 5-1 loss has greatly inflated their goals against record, but even if that loss were reduced to a more respectable 3-1 scoreline the Sounders over performance versus the Pythagorean expectation model would only be reduced to five points. If the Sounders were on a healthier goal scoring pace, for example one that netted them 46 goals at this stage in the season, their over performance versus the Pythagorean expectation would be reduced to 2 points and in line with the other teams against which they’re competing for the Supporter’s Shield

None of this is to say that Sounders’ aren’t the favorites to win the Shield in multiple forecasts. What it is meant to point out is why they’re struggling to have a better than a coin-flip-or-worse chance of winning the Shield this late in the season. Teams that score this few goals don’t routinely win the Supporters’ Shield. They instead finish second or third in the overall table. Seattle may very well win the Shield if they can reverse course from the last three matches, but no one would be surprised if more prolific goal scoring teams like New York or Real Salt Lake ended up finishing at the top of the table.

If things in the Supporters’ Shield are a bit up in the air, last weekend’s action did help to sort out the Western Conference playoff picture. Vancouver’s draw at Portland ended any remote hopes of the Whitecaps making the playoffs. Their form in the second half of the season has been awful, earning only 1.35 points per match starting at matchday 18. All they can do now is play spoilers to the Sounders’ Supporters’ Shield and Cascadia Cup dreams come Wednesday night’s match. The Whitecaps’ crash is surpassed only by FC Dallas, which had a better than 90% chance of making the playoffs earlier in the season. The MLS EI sees only one playoff spot up for grabs, with movement for the final spot seesawing back and forth between Colorado and San Jose. While Colorado was idle two weeks ago when San Jose won their match against Chivas, roles were reversed last weekend as San Jose sat idle while Colorado pummeled the Sounders. Colorado’s playoff outlook is approximately three times better than San Jose’s right now. San Jose may be rallying to their interim coach’s call for a playoff push, but they’re still far more likely to be sitting at home when the playoffs start.

The net effect of last weekend’s action on Western Conference playoff seeds was minimal. The Sounders maintain a similar overall advantage in being the top seed in the conference, while Real Salt Lake and Portland both gave up some ground in the battle for a bye via a Top Three finish. Los Angeles’ win moves them to a 40% chance of bypassing the knockout round, while more than half of Colorado’s 80% shot at making the playoffs is via the top four seeds. This means they’ll be forcing teams to play them in the mile high atmosphere of Dick’s Sporting Goods Park. Colorado may be one of the MLS Cup darkhorses if they are able to make it into the playoffs, having peaked at the right time and having perhaps one of the tougher climates to play in during the November timeframe. They can take a big step towards playoff qualification if they’re able to beat the Earthquakes Wednesday night, and are assured a spot in the postseason if the Sounders win as well.

As has been the case for most of the season, things in the East are just a bit murkier. Houston’s win last Friday moved them above the 95% likelihood of making the playoffs, meaning there is only one spot left as Montreal, Kansas City, and New York have also statistically clinched a playoff spot per the MLS EI. Philadelphia has rebounded well the last few weeks, although a win at home against Toronto was a reasonably likely event meaning last week’s result didn’t improve their playoff likelihood as much as they had perhaps hoped. Chicago’s win at DC United certainly helped their cause. Both teams face weak opposition away from home this week – the Union are at DC United while the Fire travel to FC Dallas. In both cases the opposition has little to play for other than pride and the potential to spoil the Union’s and Fire’s playoff hopes. Columbus’ slim playoff hopes were all but finished off with last week’s loss at home to Sporting Kansas City

Kansas City’s win away from last week and New York’s draw at home against the New England Revolution means the two teams flip flop positions in the race for the East’s top playoff seed. Both teams have less than a 5% chance of finishing 4th or 5th, assuring them of a first round bye. Houston and Montreal are battling for the third and fourth seeds at the moment, with Montreal’s loss to Houston effectively switching their order in playoff seeds from last week as well. Philadelphia has less than a 10% chance of making it into the playoffs without having to go through the Knockout round, while Chicago’s chances of doing the same are less than 5%.

All three of Wendnesday night’s matches carry significant playoff seed and Supporters’ Shield implications. Can Seattle find enough offense to win at home against Vancouver? Will Colorado maintain their upward trajectory and finish off San Jose’s playoff hopes? Who will win in a battle of the East’s current second and third seeds, Sporting Kansas City and Houston Dynamo? Six teams could clinch playoff positions this week, meaning only three more playoff spots would be up for grabs heading into the final two weeks of play. Three weeks, nine playoff spots, and a lot of battles over playoff seeding are to come. Buckle up – it’s the business end of the MLS season!

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