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The magnitude of climate change during Earth’s deep past suggests that future temperatures may eventually rise far more than projected if society continues emitting greenhouse gases at the current pace, a new analysis concludes.

In a "Perspectives" article in Science, Jeffrey Kiehl (NCAR) pulls together several recent studies that look at various aspects of the climate system, while adding a mathematical approach to estimate average global temperatures in the distant past. The analysis of the climate system’s response to elevated levels of carbon dioxide is supported by previous studies.

The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research manages the National Center for Atmospheric Research under sponsorship by the National Science Foundation. Any opinions, findings and conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation.