Some believe that the Georgia game is the most important. Georgia would get the conference season started off right and would be huge for the confidence of the team leading up to a showdown with Alabama. Being the helpful folks we are at Hog Database, we’ll give them a hand. Maybe someone’s mentioned it, but it would be nice for Arkansas to reverse Georgia’s stranglehold on wins. Since 2000 Arkansas is 0-4 against the Bulldogs. Maybe the Georgia game is the most important.

Some believe that the Arkansas-Alabama game must be the most important. Make no mistake here. Arkansas’ 35-7 loss could have easily been worse for the simple reason that despite improvements in a number of areas by the Alabama game, the Tide was capable of airing-out the ball almost at will in the second half and didn’t. On the other hand, it states the obvious to say that the 14-0 defending BCS Champions from 2009 must be beat for Arkansas to challenge for first in the SEC West. If Arkansas doesn’t beat ‘Bama, the Hogs would have to rely on TWO of ‘Bama’s other SEC opponents (Florida, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Tennessee, LSU, Mississippi St., and Auburn) to beat the Tide for Arkansas to win the West, and Arkansas would have to win-out in conference play. Otherwise ‘Bama would hold a head-to-head tiebreaker over Arkansas. Proponents of the Alabama game rightfully see the size of the task and the implications for an SEC West Championship to label the Arkansas-Alabama game “the most important” on the Hogs’ schedule. But there’s a better answer out there.

Have you ever considered whether some part of Arkansas’ football schedule is more challenging than another so that those games are the most important?

Here’s another pinch-yourself stat from the early version of the SEC Scoring Database.

In 9 of the last 10 seasons, Arkansas finished the first half of its SEC Schedule with a record of no better than 1-3. With the sole exception of 2006, Arkansas didn’t even split the first-half season games with SEC opponents.

1st Half

W

L

2nd Half

1

4

0

1

3

1

4

2

2

4

8

1

3

1

1

0

4

0

That’s not good. Since 2003 only LSU’s 2007 squad has turned a 6-2 record into a trip to the SEC Championship Game.

Putting the two together, under current standards, the Hogs would have been out of the SEC West race through the first half of the conference schedule in 9 of the last 10 years.

On the other hand, the Hogs have a 3-1 or 4-0 record in 50% of their last 4 regular-season conference games over the last ten years. The Hogs have done no worse than splitting the second-half conference games in 90% of the last ten years and haven’t lost their final 4 SEC games since 2000.

If you conclude that Arkansas’ first four conference games are the most important games on its schedule, maybe you’re right. Well… almost right…

SharpTusk is a featured blogger on Hog Database. He won "2009 Blog Of The Year" as voted by members of SportingNews.com and has posts referenced by local and national sports writers. Sharp began writing about Arkansas Razorbacks Football during the coaching change in 2007 and hasn't stopped. He has an eye for interesting stats, and an occasional penchant for creative writing. He's sure to keep you coming back for more.