The next season, we could be dropping Komarov, Bozak, JvR (maaaybe?) by the deadline as well. I don't think they're going to make any decisions on these guys until then, or a compelling offer lands on the table.

Sure, that's why I said "with any certainty". Any manner of things could happen.

Leipsic's contract is up after this season, as well as his waiver eligibility. This is basically his make or break season. Soshnikov, Lindberg, Gauthier, and Kapanen have a bit more runway in line with the aforementioned NHL top-9 departures.

I get what you're saying here but it strikes me as such an odd way to think of it. Leipsic had a very good year last year and would have made the Leafs if they were in any other situation other than the one where they were already giving a ton of roster spots over to rookies. So the idea that they'd walk away from him if he has a less good year despite never really giving him a shot strikes me as a little strange, especially when you can say he maybe adds something to the mix someone like Kapanen doesn't.

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Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon-Mark Twain

I get what you're saying here but it strikes me as such an odd way to think of it. Leipsic had a very good year last year and would have made the Leafs if they were in any other situation other than the one where they were already giving a ton of roster spots over to rookies. So the idea that they'd walk away from him if he has a less good year despite never really giving him a shot strikes me as a little strange, especially when you can say he maybe adds something to the mix someone like Kapanen doesn't.

You raise a good point; my words suggested it, but I wasn't really entertaining the idea of dropping Leipsic (he's awesome). I was thinking more along the lines of that nebulous zone of being a 'highly tradable asset', a la WIGWAL's Grabner trade notion.

Leipsic's niche in the pipeline (smallish, fast, skilled winger) is one that is almost too full at the older end to hang onto for much longer, so it's going to be a bit of a dogfight for him to separate his game from Kapanen, Timashov and try to overtake Hyman or Soshnikov. Dzierkals, Bracco, Korostelev, Brooks, Walker are coming up very quickly as well.

He also has to convincingly pull away from slightly different wingers in Johnsson (sniper) and Lindberg (big 200-footer) because the NHL roster is already locked into Nylander, Marner, Brown for top 9 speed/skill wingers.

We also have to accept that the only guy in the top 9 we can say with any certainty won't be around long term is Michalek. There's just not a lot of ice time available as it stands.

Indeed. Connor Brown pretty much already has that Top 9 spot spoken for IMO, just too many bodies in his way. And I don't blame Babcock for running an all veteran line in Michalek - Kadri - Komarov to play against the opposition's top line, followed by Marner and Nylander on the right side- hence Brown being on the 4th line at the moment.

You raise a good point; my words suggested it, but I wasn't really entertaining the idea of dropping Leipsic (he's awesome). I was thinking more along the lines of that nebulous zone of being a 'highly tradable asset', a la WIGWAL's Grabner trade notion.

Leipsic's niche in the pipeline (smallish, fast, skilled winger) is one that is almost too full at the older end to hang onto for much longer, so it's going to be a bit of a dogfight for him to separate his game from Kapanen, Timashov and try to overtake Hyman or Soshnikov. Dzierkals, Bracco, Korostelev, Brooks, Walker are coming up very quickly as well.

He also has to convincingly pull away from slightly different wingers in Johnsson (sniper) and Lindberg (big 200-footer) because the NHL roster is already locked into Nylander, Marner, Brown for top 9 speed/skill wingers.

tl;dr: Why did we sign Martin?

Admittedly, I don't watch a ton of the Marlies but I'd thought that Leipsic had a bit of gritty sandpapery grit that the other guys didn't. One that might make him more suited than others to having a 4th line spot.

Anyways, one way of looking at it might be that the Leafs' are running out of easy decisions to make. Dealing Michalek is one and looking to deal Lupul I suppose is another but beyond that they're going to have to start making tough choices about who's really got a long term future here and who doesn't. Kadri might have been the first decision they made that wasn't an obvious one and now they have to apply that to JVR, Bozak and that glut of B prospects.

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Give a man the reputation of an early riser and he can sleep 'til noon-Mark Twain

In addition to that, in the past, they seemed to try to apply a "one size fits all" approach to their secondary prospects (ie. guys they didn't draft early in the 1st round). The new group seems to much more adept at creating more targeted development game plans to address the specific needs of each prospect.

That's Kapanen's first goal of the AHL season, which was a power drive from the neutral zone where he literally blows by everyone and cuts in front of the net for a forehander. He gains massive amounts of acceleration (especially relative to the defense which was trying to close the gap) by doing something that Belfry preaches to his players: crossing the feet.

“It generates momentum,” Belfry said. “It changes speed. If you have momentum and change of speed, you can do a lot in the NHL with those two things.”

You can see Kapanen winds up at his blue line. His curl time is accelerated with the crossovers (L over R). As he approaches the OZ and defenders, he switches to R over L briefly to pull his first checker up thinking he'll stop and curl for reinforcements, and then hits the gas going back to the L over R crossover to just divebomb the hapless goaltender.

Imagine Gauthier doing this.

Regardless of how fluid and clean their skating form is, players that don't have crossovers incorporated into their game yet will find themselves running out of steam by the time they break out of their own zone. Regular strides transfer a lot of the expended energy into sizeways acceleration, as forward travel = cosine of the stride angle (always < 1) * stride length.

In addition to that, in the past, they seemed to try to apply a "one size fits all" approach to their secondary prospects (ie. guys they didn't draft early in the 1st round). The new group seems to much more adept at creating more targeted development game plans to address the specific needs of each prospect.

That's Kapanen's first goal of the AHL season, which was a power drive from the neutral zone where he literally blows by everyone and cuts in front of the net for a forehander. He gains massive amounts of acceleration (especially relative to the defense which was trying to close the gap) by doing something that Belfry preaches to his players: crossing the feet.

“It generates momentum,” Belfry said. “It changes speed. If you have momentum and change of speed, you can do a lot in the NHL with those two things.”

You can see Kapanen winds up at his blue line. His curl time is accelerated with the crossovers (L over R). As he approaches the OZ and defenders, he switches to R over L briefly to pull his first checker up thinking he'll stop and curl for reinforcements, and then hits the gas going back to the L over R crossover to just divebomb the hapless goaltender.

Imagine Gauthier doing this.

Regardless of how fluid and clean their skating form is, players that don't have crossovers incorporated into their game yet will find themselves running out of steam by the time they break out of their own zone. Regular strides transfer a lot of the expended energy into sizeways acceleration, as forward travel = cosine of the stride angle (always < 1) * stride length.

This is a great post.

You should consider writing for one of many Leafs blogs, your breakdowns of the specific techniques involved are very informative and better than most of the analysis on TV.

You should consider writing for one of many Leafs blogs, your breakdowns of the specific techniques involved are very informative and better than most of the analysis on TV.

Thanks! That's a suggestion I'll take under advisement. I haven't played any hockey beyond floor/road and wish I had the chance to get into it more, so reading about the skills development and systems and analytics-based strategies is of great interest to me.

I watched a couple of Marlies games last season via the AHL Live website, and I'd like to watch more, but the prices are pretty scandalous. Pretty much the feed off the arena video, with a radio play by play over the top, and it costs $8 per game.

$199 to watch every Marlies game. $349 to watch every AHL game.

EVERY SINGLE NHL game costs $119 on their streaming service which has actual proper TV quality coverage and studios and all