Finding the Playable Race
The vast majority of horseplayers today can be classified as speed and pace players. And the vast majority of those tend to spend a great deal of time and energy focusing on the speed and pace numbers themselves. Very often often they lose sight of something that can be every bit as important as speed and pace numbers: Finding the Playable Race. This article outlines a method of play where the tools in JCapper are used to identify playable as well as unplayable races.

JCapper contains some very good tools for separating playable races from non-playable races. Among them are: Field Size, PF1, PF2, Morning Line Race Low, and Race Volatility. Each will be discussed and Data Window examples of their use will be presented.

For purposes of this article, all data presented is from a sample of approximately 5600 dirt sprint races from my own database for the calendar year 2004.

Field Size
Field size is a simple count of the number of runners in a race. The larger the field, the greater the number of horses that must be analyzed, and the harder it becomes for the public (and us) to pick any one horse as the race winner.

The following table shows Data Window results for the top ranked JRating horse broken out by Field Size. Profit and Win Roi are decidedly higher in 11 horse fields and larger.

Data Summary

Win

Place

Show

Mutuel Totals

10766.10

10551.00

10146.20

Bet

-11236.00

-11236.00

-11236.00

Gain

-469.90

-685.00

-1089.80

Wins

1524

2611

3311

Plays

5618

5618

5618

PCT

.2713

.4648

.5894

ROI

0.9582

0.9390

0.9030

Avg Mut

7.06

4.04

3.06

FieldSize

Gain

Bet

Roi

Wins

Plays

Pct

1

0.00

0.00

0.0000

0

0

.0000

2

0.00

0.00

0.0000

0

0

.0000

3

0.80

8.00

1.1000

2

4

.5000

4

-20.60

100.00

0.7940

16

50

.3200

5

-145.90

690.00

0.7886

108

345

.3130

6

-116.70

1646.00

0.9291

262

823

.3183

7

-140.00

2272.00

0.9384

329

1136

.2896

8

-311.90

2036.00

0.8468

261

1018

.2564

9

99.00

1506.00

1.0657

193

753

.2563

10

-181.80

1168.00

0.8443

131

584

.2243

11

284.00

886.00

1.3205

115

443

.2596

12

51.20

844.00

1.0607

99

422

.2346

13

-21.20

52.00

0.5923

2

26

.0769

14

28.40

28.00

2.0143

4

14

.2857

PF1 and PF2PF1 and PF2 are numbers in JCapper that stand for Prime Power Failure scores one and two. The logic behind the numbers is that Prime Power is a number seen and reacted to by a great number of bettors. The top Prime Power horse in a race is almost always overbet and therefore an underlay. As a general rule, it is a bad idea to try and bet the top Prime Power horse in the race to win. But, if we hope to cash a ticket on a different horse, we have to contend with, and beat, the top Prime Power horse in the race.

Fortunatley, not all top Prime Power horses are created equal. The following table shows Data Window results for the top Prime Power horse in each race broken out by PF1 and PF2. Win rate for the top Prime Power horse in the race is decidedly lower when those horses have low PF1 and PF2 scores.

Data Summary

Win

Place

Show

Mutuel Totals

9591.20

9841.50

10005.60

Bet

-11422.00

-11422.00

-11422.00

Gain

-1830.80

-1580.50

-1416.40

Wins

1814

2935

3682

Plays

5711

5711

5711

PCT

.3176

.5139

.6447

ROI

0.8397

0.8616

0.8760

Avg Mut

5.29

3.35

2.72

By: 100 pF1

Min

Max

Gain

Bet

Roi

Wins

Plays

Pct

-999.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.0000

0

0

.0000

0.00

9.99

0.00

0.00

0.0000

0

0

.0000

10.00

19.99

0.00

0.00

0.0000

0

0

.0000

20.00

29.99

0.00

0.00

0.0000

0

0

.0000

30.00

39.99

0.00

10.00

0.0000

2

5

.4000

40.00

49.99

0.00

38.00

0.0000

4

19

.2105

50.00

59.99

-4.40

44.00

0.9000

5

22

.2273

60.00

69.99

-77.60

176.00

0.5591

16

88

.1818

70.00

79.99

10.80

384.00

1.0281

56

192

.2917

80.00

89.99

-247.40

1166.00

0.7878

147

583

.2521

90.00

99.99

-619.50

2900.00

0.7864

413

1450

.2848

100.00

109.99

-221.20

1952.00

0.8867

320

976

.3279

110.00

119.99

-700.60

4308.00

0.8374

738

2154

.3426

120.00

129.99

39.00

300.00

1.1300

80

150

.5333

130.00

139.99

-17.20

36.00

0.5222

5

18

.2778

140.00

149.99

-7.40

28.00

0.7357

5

14

.3571

150.00

159.99

-7.40

22.00

0.6636

4

11

.3636

160.00

169.99

-3.20

6.00

0.4667

1

3

.3333

170.00

179.99

-8.00

16.00

0.5000

2

8

.2500

180.00

9999.00

-2.40

32.00

0.9250

6

16

.3750

By: 101 pF2

Min

Max

Gain

Bet

Roi

Wins

Plays

Pct

-999.00

70.00

-88.20

294.00

0.7000

31

147

.2109

70.00

74.99

31.20

150.00

1.2080

25

75

.3333

75.00

79.99

-34.90

262.00

0.8668

31

131

.2366

80.00

84.99

-41.50

356.00

0.8834

44

178

.2472

85.00

89.99

-157.90

600.00

0.7368

67

300

.2233

90.00

94.99

-227.60

1144.00

0.8010

165

572

.2885

95.00

99.99

-309.80

1828.00

0.8305

268

914

.2932

100.00

104.99

-372.60

2008.00

0.8144

320

1004

.3187

105.00

109.99

0.00

0.00

0.0000

0

0

.0000

110.00

114.99

-520.30

3174.00

0.8361

525

1587

.3308

115.00

119.99

-146.40

1128.00

0.8702

212

564

.3759

120.00

124.99

40.90

260.00

1.1573

74

130

.5692

125.00

129.99

4.60

68.00

1.0676

19

34

.5588

130.00

134.99

-26.00

26.00

0.0000

0

13

.0000

135.00

139.99

11.40

8.00

2.4250

4

4

1.0000

140.00

144.99

-3.20

18.00

0.8222

4

9

.4444

145.00

149.99

-6.00

6.00

0.0000

0

3

.0000

150.00

154.99

-2.00

2.00

0.0000

0

1

.0000

155.00

159.99

-5.40

20.00

0.7300

4

10

.4000

160.00

9999.00

-13.60

54.00

0.7481

9

27

.3333

Morning Line Race LowAnother horse we must contend with in a race is the Morning Line Favorite. Again, it is generally a bad idea to try and bet the Morning Line Favorite to win because these horses are almost always overbet and therefore underlays. But not all Morning Line Favorites are created equal. There is a correalation between the odds set by the morning line oddsmaker and actual win percentage. The lower the Morning Line odds of the Morning Line Favorite, the higher the win percentage. The following table illustrates this quite clearly.

Data Summary

Win

Place

Show

Mutuel Totals

9654.40

9964.80

9950.30

Bet

-11568.00

-11568.00

-11568.00

Gain

-1913.60

-1603.20

-1617.70

Wins

1887

3060

3760

Plays

5784

5784

5784

PCT

.3262

.5290

.6501

ROI

0.8346

0.8614

0.8602

Avg Mut

5.12

3.26

2.65

By: Morning Line

Min

Max

Gain

Bet

Roi

Wins

Plays

Pct

-999.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.0000

0

0

.0000

0.00

0.99

-49.20

226.00

0.7823

46

113

.4071

1.00

1.99

-453.70

2860.00

0.8414

601

1430

.4203

2.00

2.99

-705.40

4950.00

0.8575

789

2475

.3188

3.00

3.99

-583.00

2966.00

0.8034

378

1483

.2549

4.00

4.99

-167.90

486.00

0.6545

47

243

.1934

5.00

5.99

-11.00

62.00

0.8226

8

31

.2581

6.00

6.99

-4.00

18.00

0.7778

2

9

.2222

7.00

7.99

0.00

0.00

0.0000

0

0

.0000

It therefore follows that as a general rule win bets the top JRating horse in a race should be more profitable in races where the Morning Line odds of the Morning Line Favorite are higher rather than lower. The following table illustrates this quite clearly.

Data Summary

Win

Place

Show

Mutuel Totals

10766.10

10551.00

10146.20

Bet

-11236.00

-11236.00

-11236.00

Gain

-469.90

-685.00

-1089.80

Wins

1524

2611

3311

Plays

5618

5618

5618

PCT

.2713

.4648

.5894

ROI

0.9582

0.9390

0.9030

Avg Mut

7.06

4.04

3.06

By: Morning Line (Low for Race)

Min

Max

Gain

Bet

Roi

Wins

Plays

Pct

-999.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.0000

0

0

.0000

0.00

0.49

7.00

12.00

1.5833

4

6

.6667

0.50

0.99

-16.80

126.00

0.8667

32

63

.5079

1.00

1.49

-154.00

784.00

0.8036

138

392

.3520

1.50

1.99

-94.40

2018.00

0.9532

329

1009

.3261

2.00

2.49

-46.50

1914.00

0.9757

273

957

.2853

2.50

2.99

-252.20

2916.00

0.9135

369

1458

.2531

3.00

3.49

26.80

2124.00

1.0126

246

1062

.2316

3.50

3.99

-94.30

812.00

0.8839

70

406

.1724

4.00

4.49

104.70

428.00

1.2446

45

214

.2103

4.50

4.99

-4.60

38.00

0.8789

4

19

.2105

5.00

5.49

52.40

56.00

1.9357

11

28

.3929

5.50

5.99

0.00

0.00

0.0000

0

0

.0000

6.00

6.49

-2.80

8.00

0.6500

1

4

.2500

Race Volatility
Race Volatility in JCapper combines Field Size, the PF1 and PF2 of the top Prime Power horse in the race, and the odds of the Morning Line favorite in the race into a single number that often indicates the amount of volatility or chaos present in the race. The higher the Race Volatility score, the greater the degree of uncertainty present in the race.

The following table shows Data Window results of Post Time Favorites broken out by Race Volatility. Favorites win a higher percentage of races where Race Volatility is low and a lower percentage of races where Race Volatility is high.

Data Summary

Win

Place

Show

Mutuel Totals

9843.60

10428.80

10452.80

Bet

-11838.00

-11838.00

-11838.00

Gain

-1994.40

-1409.20

-1385.20

Wins

2100

3340

4035

Plays

5919

5919

5919

PCT

.3548

.5643

.6817

ROI

0.8315

0.8810

0.8830

Avg Mut

4.69

3.12

2.59

By: Race Volatility

Min

Max

Gain

Bet

Roi

Wins

Plays

Pct

-999.00

0.00

-2.20

68.00

0.9676

16

34

.4706

0.00

9.99

-1.60

26.00

0.9385

6

13

.4615

10.00

19.99

6.80

26.00

1.2615

9

13

.6923

20.00

29.99

1.00

36.00

1.0278

12

18

.6667

30.00

39.99

-4.30

116.00

0.9629

33

58

.5690

40.00

49.99

-17.30

292.00

0.9408

73

146

.5000

50.00

59.99

-84.00

514.00

0.8366

109

257

.4241

60.00

69.99

-134.40

886.00

0.8483

175

443

.3950

70.00

79.99

-221.00

1068.00

0.7931

200

534

.3745

80.00

89.99

-282.10

1154.00

0.7555

198

577

.3432

90.00

99.99

-101.80

1166.00

0.9127

221

583

.3791

100.00

109.99

-173.20

1160.00

0.8507

209

580

.3603

110.00

119.99

-247.40

1146.00

0.7841

185

573

.3229

120.00

129.99

-176.10

944.00

0.8135

151

472

.3199

130.00

139.99

-157.80

764.00

0.7935

121

382

.3168

140.00

149.99

-135.50

638.00

0.7876

98

319

.3072

150.00

159.99

-87.40

542.00

0.8387

83

271

.3063

160.00

169.99

-49.40

460.00

0.8926

74

230

.3217

170.00

179.99

-48.10

280.00

0.8282

39

140

.2786

180.00

9999.00

-150.80

548.00

0.7248

68

274

.2482

The Playable Race
The question then arises, which race types are better for us? High volatility races or low volatility races? Are we better off looking for races with low uncertainty or high uncertainty?

The following table shows Data Window results for the top JRating horse in the race broken out by Race Volatility. The pattern speaks for itself. High volatility races produce the best prices for JRating horses.

Data Summary

Win

Place

Show

Mutuel Totals

10766.10

10551.00

10146.20

Bet

-11236.00

-11236.00

-11236.00

Gain

-469.90

-685.00

-1089.80

Wins

1524

2611

3311

Plays

5618

5618

5618

PCT

.2713

.4648

.5894

ROI

0.9582

0.9390

0.9030

Avg Mut

7.06

4.04

3.06

By: Race Volatility

Min

Max

Gain

Bet

Roi

Wins

Plays

Pct

-999.00

0.00

-21.60

62.00

0.6516

9

31

.2903

0.00

9.99

-7.00

26.00

0.7308

5

13

.3846

10.00

19.99

3.60

26.00

1.1385

8

13

.6154

20.00

29.99

-2.40

36.00

0.9333

11

18

.6111

30.00

39.99

28.50

116.00

1.2457

29

58

.5000

40.00

49.99

-36.40

290.00

0.8745

64

145

.4414

50.00

59.99

-63.20

496.00

0.8726

83

248

.3347

60.00

69.99

-93.30

812.00

0.8851

138

406

.3399

70.00

79.99

-133.90

1014.00

0.8679

162

507

.3195

80.00

89.99

-62.20

1106.00

0.9438

169

553

.3056

90.00

99.99

-148.20

1110.00

0.8665

160

555

.2883

100.00

109.99

-82.00

1080.00

0.9241

149

540

.2759

110.00

119.99

-188.00

1092.00

0.8278

117

546

.2143

120.00

129.99

-52.40

900.00

0.9418

89

450

.1978

130.00

139.99

-36.80

736.00

0.9500

88

368

.2391

140.00

149.99

141.70

604.00

1.2346

71

302

.2351

150.00

159.99

98.80

500.00

1.1976

60

250

.2400

160.00

169.99

47.90

430.00

1.1114

34

215

.1581

170.00

179.99

44.40

266.00

1.1669

28

133

.2105

180.00

9999.00

91.80

530.00

1.1732

48

265

.1811

Putting It All Together
Taking the concept one step further, what happens if we design a UDM to do two things? One, pick very logical contenders (the top JRating horse in the race.) And two, pick playable races (Race Volatility >= 140.) The following table shows results for all dirt sprints in my database for the calendar year 2004 where both those conditions are met.

If you'd like to create your own UDMs using JRating and Race Volatility, you'll find both on the factors drop down in the UDM Wizard where you can set Min and Max values. You'll also find both in the Profile Table Interface- Complete View ALL and Complete View Active Profiles.